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000
FXUS64 KBRO 030605 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
105 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS NOW INLAND
ACROSS MEXICO...ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH OF KBRO. RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NOW THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. PREDOMINATE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TEMPO PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE
MORE INTENSE RAIN BANDS. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE BEST TIME WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS. THE
RAIN BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATER TODAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
LATER TONIGHT ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF KBRO. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL STORM WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE BAND OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE STORM BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATER WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
PREDOMINATE VFR WITH PREVAILING SHRA WITH TEMPO PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ESPEICALLY AS THE
RAIN BANDS BECOME MORE INTENSE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE
BEST TIME WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DOLLY IS HEADED
TOWARD LANDFALL THIS EVENING ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN AMOUNTS.
MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO WED. CONVERGENT
BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER IT MOVES INLAND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT FOR RAIN LOCALLY... WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE PEAK. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.16 INCHES WITH DEEP EAST FLOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO TWO AND A QUARTER INCHES ON WED...COURTESY
OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. RAIN AMOUNTS COULD RANGE BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IMPACTS WILL BE INCLUDE MAINLY
NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER COULD ACCUMULATE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ANY BREAKS IN THE SKY ALLOWING
FOR A PEAK AT THE SUN WEDNESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY BEING DEFLECTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST. INCREASING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED MARINE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR
TODAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER LAND. MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE SAVED UNTIL WEDNESDAY. CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THOUGH...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS
DOWN IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE LOWER...POSSIBLY BEING HELD BELOW 90 FOR MANY AREAS
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SPORADIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT A GENERAL LETUP WILL BE ON TAP AS DOLLY MOVES
INLAND AND WEAKENS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND UPRIVER OVER THE UPPER VALLEY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...REMNANTS OF DOLLY CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH MOISTURE STILL
HANGING AROUND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. AFTER FRIDAY...THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS TEXAS...INHIBITING THE CONVECTIVE FORMATION SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS DIVERGE AFTER SATURDAY..WITH JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THEM TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MIDLEVEL LOW THAT IS SWIRLING ABOVE THE BAHAMAS
WILL CONTINUE TO TREK WWD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST ISSUE IS WILL THIS FEATURE CONTINUE
WWD AND REACH THE WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK...OR GET SLOWED
DOWN BY WEAK TROUGHING FROM THE NORTH. CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD
THE LATTER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF...WITH A DRIER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF
WATERS WILL INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST AND THEN
MOVES INLAND. WINDS TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 11 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS EAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND THE CITY
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
TROPICAL SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO INCREASE...PRODUCING
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CSTL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE HAZARDOUS
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...AND A RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY WANE. THURSDAY SEAS OF 4
TO 5 FEET WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 2 FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ251-
     256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63






000
FXUS64 KBRO 030605 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
105 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS NOW INLAND
ACROSS MEXICO...ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH OF KBRO. RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NOW THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. PREDOMINATE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TEMPO PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE
MORE INTENSE RAIN BANDS. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE BEST TIME WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS. THE
RAIN BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATER TODAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
LATER TONIGHT ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF KBRO. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL STORM WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE BAND OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE STORM BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATER WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
PREDOMINATE VFR WITH PREVAILING SHRA WITH TEMPO PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ESPEICALLY AS THE
RAIN BANDS BECOME MORE INTENSE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE
BEST TIME WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DOLLY IS HEADED
TOWARD LANDFALL THIS EVENING ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN AMOUNTS.
MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO WED. CONVERGENT
BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER IT MOVES INLAND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT FOR RAIN LOCALLY... WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE PEAK. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.16 INCHES WITH DEEP EAST FLOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO TWO AND A QUARTER INCHES ON WED...COURTESY
OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. RAIN AMOUNTS COULD RANGE BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IMPACTS WILL BE INCLUDE MAINLY
NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER COULD ACCUMULATE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ANY BREAKS IN THE SKY ALLOWING
FOR A PEAK AT THE SUN WEDNESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY BEING DEFLECTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST. INCREASING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED MARINE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR
TODAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER LAND. MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE SAVED UNTIL WEDNESDAY. CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THOUGH...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS
DOWN IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE LOWER...POSSIBLY BEING HELD BELOW 90 FOR MANY AREAS
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SPORADIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT A GENERAL LETUP WILL BE ON TAP AS DOLLY MOVES
INLAND AND WEAKENS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND UPRIVER OVER THE UPPER VALLEY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...REMNANTS OF DOLLY CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH MOISTURE STILL
HANGING AROUND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. AFTER FRIDAY...THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS TEXAS...INHIBITING THE CONVECTIVE FORMATION SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS DIVERGE AFTER SATURDAY..WITH JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THEM TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MIDLEVEL LOW THAT IS SWIRLING ABOVE THE BAHAMAS
WILL CONTINUE TO TREK WWD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST ISSUE IS WILL THIS FEATURE CONTINUE
WWD AND REACH THE WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK...OR GET SLOWED
DOWN BY WEAK TROUGHING FROM THE NORTH. CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD
THE LATTER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF...WITH A DRIER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF
WATERS WILL INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST AND THEN
MOVES INLAND. WINDS TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 11 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS EAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND THE CITY
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
TROPICAL SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO INCREASE...PRODUCING
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CSTL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE HAZARDOUS
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...AND A RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY WANE. THURSDAY SEAS OF 4
TO 5 FEET WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 2 FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ251-
     256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMAF 030522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A modest low level jet this morning will help to keep surface winds
near 10-15kts at MAF/INK/FST with an uptick in winds around 15Z when
mixing commences. Also MVFR CIGS will be possible mainly around
MAF/HOB btwn 11Z-16Z.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

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http://weather.gov/midland





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000
FXUS64 KCRP 030514
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1214 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN OUTFLOW BDRY SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY WITH MAINLY SHRA`S
ALONG IT...IS PUSHING N AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ALI AND CRP
TAF SITES BETWEEN 06-08Z. WIND GUSTS TO 30-34KTS AND BRIEF HVY RAIN
LEADING TO MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THEN
A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE REDVLPMNT OF SHRA/TSRA`S OCCURS LATER IN
THE MORNING AND CONTINUES PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY THU.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING THEN LIFT TO VFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES ANTICIPATED NEAR ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRG THE MID
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
COUNTIES OF WEBB...DUVAL...JIM WELLS...AND KLEBERG. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO OCCUR. GENERALLY LGT
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO GENERALLY MODERATE DRG THE
AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS THE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. AS THE TRACK OF T.S.
DOLLY CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL SOUTH OF THE
BORDER THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIT
MORE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF DOLLY STRETCHING INTO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED
POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA...WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS
AS THE WEAKENED SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE LOWERED
CHANCES...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING
CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS LOWERED SOME WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
MOISTURE FIELD IS APPEARING TO BE A LITTLE MORE LIMITED THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. GUIDANCE SUITES CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH HANDLING
OF REMNANTS OF TROP STORM DOLLY WITH GFS TAKING REMNANT VORTICITY
WESTWARD INTO MX WHILE ECMWF/CMC INCREASE DPVA ACROSS NORTHERN
COAHUILA MX AND S TX. THUS...GFS IS DRIER THAN ECMWF/CMC. GIVEN
CURRENT TRACK OF DOLLY...GFS HANDLING OF REMNANTS MAY BE PANNING
OUT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT FOR AT LEAST DAILY CHANCES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ENOUGH DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND STRENGTHENING OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AID IN REDUCTION OF POPS. ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A WEAK FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
HAVE WARMED MAX TEMPS FOR MOST DAYTIME PERIODS GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS AND STRENGTHENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND THEN FALL TO SEASONABLY LEVELS AS ATMOSPHERE
DRIES.

MARINE...PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASED SWELLS
FROM T.S. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM PORT ARANSAS SOUTH
TO PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
OVERNIGHT DURING HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...INCREASED SEAS AND A
TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  77  92  77  /  30  40  20  30  10
VICTORIA          77  96  76  97  76  /  20  30  10  30  10
LAREDO            78  98  79  99  79  /  40  40  30  30  20
ALICE             77  96  75  96  76  /  30  40  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          80  90  80  92  79  /  30  40  20  30  10
COTULLA           76  97  76  98  76  /  30  40  20  30  20
KINGSVILLE        78  96  77  95  77  /  30  40  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  91  80  90  81  /  30  40  20  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 030514
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1214 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN OUTFLOW BDRY SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY WITH MAINLY SHRA`S
ALONG IT...IS PUSHING N AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ALI AND CRP
TAF SITES BETWEEN 06-08Z. WIND GUSTS TO 30-34KTS AND BRIEF HVY RAIN
LEADING TO MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THEN
A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE REDVLPMNT OF SHRA/TSRA`S OCCURS LATER IN
THE MORNING AND CONTINUES PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY THU.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING THEN LIFT TO VFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES ANTICIPATED NEAR ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRG THE MID
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
COUNTIES OF WEBB...DUVAL...JIM WELLS...AND KLEBERG. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO OCCUR. GENERALLY LGT
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO GENERALLY MODERATE DRG THE
AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS THE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. AS THE TRACK OF T.S.
DOLLY CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL SOUTH OF THE
BORDER THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIT
MORE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF DOLLY STRETCHING INTO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED
POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA...WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS
AS THE WEAKENED SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE LOWERED
CHANCES...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING
CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS LOWERED SOME WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
MOISTURE FIELD IS APPEARING TO BE A LITTLE MORE LIMITED THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. GUIDANCE SUITES CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH HANDLING
OF REMNANTS OF TROP STORM DOLLY WITH GFS TAKING REMNANT VORTICITY
WESTWARD INTO MX WHILE ECMWF/CMC INCREASE DPVA ACROSS NORTHERN
COAHUILA MX AND S TX. THUS...GFS IS DRIER THAN ECMWF/CMC. GIVEN
CURRENT TRACK OF DOLLY...GFS HANDLING OF REMNANTS MAY BE PANNING
OUT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT FOR AT LEAST DAILY CHANCES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ENOUGH DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND STRENGTHENING OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AID IN REDUCTION OF POPS. ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A WEAK FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
HAVE WARMED MAX TEMPS FOR MOST DAYTIME PERIODS GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS AND STRENGTHENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND THEN FALL TO SEASONABLY LEVELS AS ATMOSPHERE
DRIES.

MARINE...PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASED SWELLS
FROM T.S. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM PORT ARANSAS SOUTH
TO PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
OVERNIGHT DURING HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...INCREASED SEAS AND A
TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  77  92  77  /  30  40  20  30  10
VICTORIA          77  96  76  97  76  /  20  30  10  30  10
LAREDO            78  98  79  99  79  /  40  40  30  30  20
ALICE             77  96  75  96  76  /  30  40  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          80  90  80  92  79  /  30  40  20  30  10
COTULLA           76  97  76  98  76  /  30  40  20  30  20
KINGSVILLE        78  96  77  95  77  /  30  40  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  91  80  90  81  /  30  40  20  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KAMA 030442 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS.  STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO
VEER TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE.  REMNANT STRONG WINDS FROM
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MIX DOWNWARD AFTER SUNRISE...CAUSING SURFACE WINDS
TO GUST INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.  LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS WHERE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE POSITIONED AS
SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES
NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
EARLIER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS
AND THEN ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE RAPIDLY COMING TO AN END.  HAVE
UPDATED GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS TO REMOVE SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAD BEEN INSERTED EARLIER.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME JUST SOUTH OF KAMA
ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS AND CONVERGENCE ZONE.  WILL INCLUDE VCTS AND
TEMPO TSRA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KAMA.  COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KT WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO SOUTH AND
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY.  SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE AROUND 14Z OR 15Z WEDNESDAY.  CLEAR SKY EXPECTED MOST OF
THE DAY...WITH HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND KDHT AROUND 21Z
WEDNESDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

NO OVERWHELMING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES TO ABOUND LATER IN THE PERIOD.  ONE OF THE MAIN SOURCES OF
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE THE TROPICS AS TS DOLLY IN THE WRN GULF
AND TS NORBERT IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTE MOISTURE
TO THE PATTERN EVENTUALLY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE OVERALL
UPR AIR PATTERN EVOLUTION IN WAYS THAT WILL NOT BE WELL MODELED.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THE LIGHT
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WED AND THU WILL BE MUCH BREEZIER DAYS AS SSW
WINDS PICK UP.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE WRN OK PANHANDLE THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT SLIPPING IN AND ERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHRTWV.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
TRIED VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN A TIME PERIOD OR LOCATION WHERE PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST BUT WEAK FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE MEANS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. DO THINK
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER IN THIS
PERIOD. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONGEALING A BIT BETTER ON TEMPERATURES
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 030439
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1139 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME SITES NORTH
OF HOUSTON MIGHT GO MVFR BRIEFLY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REBOUND
QUICKLY AFTER THE SUN RISES. THE CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS VERY SLIM
TOMORROW. PWAT VALUES FALL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH MID- LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN TO THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO STARTING TO SHOW AN INVERSION AROUND
850 MB. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF RAIN IN TAFS.
23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 822 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AND
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THERE. SURGE OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN COMING
INTO MATAGORDA BAY REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA GIVEN THE
ACARS PROFILES DON`T EXPECT THESE TO MAKE IT FAR INLAND. HAVE
LOWERED POPS AND ALTERED THE WORDING AS WELL AS CLEARED OUT SKIES
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. STRATUS
DEVELOPING A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS AS WELL
AS PATCHY LIGHT FOG. FORECAST WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE. MIGHT GET SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER THE SUN RISES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WITH PRETTY GOOD
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH SO THINK SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN TODAY. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  95 /  50  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  77  93  77  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  91  82  91 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030439
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1139 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME SITES NORTH
OF HOUSTON MIGHT GO MVFR BRIEFLY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REBOUND
QUICKLY AFTER THE SUN RISES. THE CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS VERY SLIM
TOMORROW. PWAT VALUES FALL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH MID- LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN TO THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO STARTING TO SHOW AN INVERSION AROUND
850 MB. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF RAIN IN TAFS.
23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 822 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AND
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THERE. SURGE OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN COMING
INTO MATAGORDA BAY REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA GIVEN THE
ACARS PROFILES DON`T EXPECT THESE TO MAKE IT FAR INLAND. HAVE
LOWERED POPS AND ALTERED THE WORDING AS WELL AS CLEARED OUT SKIES
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. STRATUS
DEVELOPING A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS AS WELL
AS PATCHY LIGHT FOG. FORECAST WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE. MIGHT GET SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER THE SUN RISES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WITH PRETTY GOOD
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH SO THINK SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN TODAY. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  95 /  50  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  77  93  77  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  91  82  91 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030439
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1139 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME SITES NORTH
OF HOUSTON MIGHT GO MVFR BRIEFLY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REBOUND
QUICKLY AFTER THE SUN RISES. THE CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS VERY SLIM
TOMORROW. PWAT VALUES FALL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH MID- LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN TO THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO STARTING TO SHOW AN INVERSION AROUND
850 MB. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF RAIN IN TAFS.
23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 822 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AND
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THERE. SURGE OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN COMING
INTO MATAGORDA BAY REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA GIVEN THE
ACARS PROFILES DON`T EXPECT THESE TO MAKE IT FAR INLAND. HAVE
LOWERED POPS AND ALTERED THE WORDING AS WELL AS CLEARED OUT SKIES
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. STRATUS
DEVELOPING A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS AS WELL
AS PATCHY LIGHT FOG. FORECAST WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE. MIGHT GET SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER THE SUN RISES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WITH PRETTY GOOD
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH SO THINK SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN TODAY. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  95 /  50  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  77  93  77  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  91  82  91 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030439
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1139 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME SITES NORTH
OF HOUSTON MIGHT GO MVFR BRIEFLY TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REBOUND
QUICKLY AFTER THE SUN RISES. THE CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS VERY SLIM
TOMORROW. PWAT VALUES FALL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH MID- LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD IN TO THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO STARTING TO SHOW AN INVERSION AROUND
850 MB. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE TRIMMED BACK MENTION OF RAIN IN TAFS.
23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 822 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AND
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THERE. SURGE OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN COMING
INTO MATAGORDA BAY REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA GIVEN THE
ACARS PROFILES DON`T EXPECT THESE TO MAKE IT FAR INLAND. HAVE
LOWERED POPS AND ALTERED THE WORDING AS WELL AS CLEARED OUT SKIES
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. STRATUS
DEVELOPING A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS AS WELL
AS PATCHY LIGHT FOG. FORECAST WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE. MIGHT GET SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER THE SUN RISES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WITH PRETTY GOOD
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH SO THINK SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN TODAY. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  95 /  50  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  77  93  77  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  91  82  91 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...23



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 030434
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1134 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING A LITTLE LATER...AROUND 08-10Z.
MVFR SHOULD LAST UNTIL 16Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR CIGS. THE I-35
SITES SHOULD HAVE SCT CLOUDS AFTER 20Z...BUT ALSO A PROB30 OF -TSRA
FROM 20-24Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND BECOME 14G24KT AT 17Z
FOR KDRT...AND 12G22KT AT THE I-35 SITES AFTER 20Z. LOOK FOR A
REPEAT TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS STRATUS RETURNING TO THE
I-35 SITES AROUND 09Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST TO EXPAND RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. WE
STILL EXPECT A DECREASING TREND THIS EVENING...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MINOR
CHANGES HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE SKY COVER...WINDS AND DEW
POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z AND HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT A REPEAT TONIGHT OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH
MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 07Z AT THE I-35 SITES AND 10Z AT
KDRT. MVFR SHOULD LAST UNTIL 16Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR CIGS. THE
I-35 SITES SHOULD HAVE SCT CLOUDS AFTER 20Z...BUT ALSO A PROB30 OF
TSRA FROM 20-24Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND BECOME 10G22KT
AT 16Z FOR KDRT...AND AFTER 20Z AT THE I-35 SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A DEEPER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING BY A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET. AS DOLLY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS...THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH DISSIPATION MOST AREAS BY SUNSET. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED
IN THE SOUTH AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCING
LIFT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NIGHTTIME RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. A SLIGHT
COOLING OF HIGHS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANT LOW OF DOLLY WILL DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...RETREATING TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. IN ADDITION...ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY BRIEFLY
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES AND THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ENDING THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...EXCEPT
A BRIEF DIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  98  76  98  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  96  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  95  75  95  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  96  74  96  74 /  20  30  10  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  96  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLUB 030432
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1132 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAT AN IFR OR MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL
DEVELOP NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF KLBB EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND ADVECT
OVER THE AIRPORT. LATEST WRF/NAM HAS DRIED THE H850 MB A BIT WHILE
THE RAP H850 MB LAYER IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BACK OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE CLOUD LAYER POTENTIAL...
WE WILL RETAIN SOME CHANCE OF A DECK IMPACTING KLBB JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKER FLOW THAN TUESDAY AND
LESSER THUNDER CHANCES. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO HAVE BY-PASSED KLBB WHILE
REMAINING FAR WEST OF KCDS THIS EVENING. VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OTHER THAN A RISK FOR AN IFR/MVFR CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AT KLBB. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS BEST-GUESS...BUT GIVE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS SOME CREDIT. WE HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW COVERAGE THUNDER
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. 1500-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM OF
CONVECTIVE ENERGY BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR CONTRIBUTING TO BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND BRIEF MOSTLY WEAK HAIL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAKE ON BETTER NORTHERLY DRIFT...THOUGH BELIEVE
MOST ACTIVITY WILL RELENT BY DARK. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  20   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  20   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /  20   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       72  93  68  92  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /  20   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05





000
FXUS64 KLUB 030432
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1132 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAT AN IFR OR MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL
DEVELOP NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF KLBB EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND ADVECT
OVER THE AIRPORT. LATEST WRF/NAM HAS DRIED THE H850 MB A BIT WHILE
THE RAP H850 MB LAYER IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BACK OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE CLOUD LAYER POTENTIAL...
WE WILL RETAIN SOME CHANCE OF A DECK IMPACTING KLBB JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKER FLOW THAN TUESDAY AND
LESSER THUNDER CHANCES. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO HAVE BY-PASSED KLBB WHILE
REMAINING FAR WEST OF KCDS THIS EVENING. VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OTHER THAN A RISK FOR AN IFR/MVFR CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AT KLBB. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS BEST-GUESS...BUT GIVE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS SOME CREDIT. WE HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW COVERAGE THUNDER
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. 1500-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM OF
CONVECTIVE ENERGY BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR CONTRIBUTING TO BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND BRIEF MOSTLY WEAK HAIL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAKE ON BETTER NORTHERLY DRIFT...THOUGH BELIEVE
MOST ACTIVITY WILL RELENT BY DARK. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  20   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  20   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /  20   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       72  93  68  92  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /  20   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05





000
FXUS64 KLUB 030432
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1132 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAT AN IFR OR MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL
DEVELOP NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF KLBB EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND ADVECT
OVER THE AIRPORT. LATEST WRF/NAM HAS DRIED THE H850 MB A BIT WHILE
THE RAP H850 MB LAYER IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BACK OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE CLOUD LAYER POTENTIAL...
WE WILL RETAIN SOME CHANCE OF A DECK IMPACTING KLBB JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKER FLOW THAN TUESDAY AND
LESSER THUNDER CHANCES. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO HAVE BY-PASSED KLBB WHILE
REMAINING FAR WEST OF KCDS THIS EVENING. VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OTHER THAN A RISK FOR AN IFR/MVFR CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AT KLBB. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS BEST-GUESS...BUT GIVE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS SOME CREDIT. WE HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW COVERAGE THUNDER
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. 1500-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM OF
CONVECTIVE ENERGY BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR CONTRIBUTING TO BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND BRIEF MOSTLY WEAK HAIL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAKE ON BETTER NORTHERLY DRIFT...THOUGH BELIEVE
MOST ACTIVITY WILL RELENT BY DARK. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  20   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  20   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /  20   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       72  93  68  92  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /  20   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05





000
FXUS64 KLUB 030432
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1132 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAT AN IFR OR MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL
DEVELOP NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF KLBB EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND ADVECT
OVER THE AIRPORT. LATEST WRF/NAM HAS DRIED THE H850 MB A BIT WHILE
THE RAP H850 MB LAYER IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BACK OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE CLOUD LAYER POTENTIAL...
WE WILL RETAIN SOME CHANCE OF A DECK IMPACTING KLBB JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKER FLOW THAN TUESDAY AND
LESSER THUNDER CHANCES. A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO HAVE BY-PASSED KLBB WHILE
REMAINING FAR WEST OF KCDS THIS EVENING. VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OTHER THAN A RISK FOR AN IFR/MVFR CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AT KLBB. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS BEST-GUESS...BUT GIVE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS SOME CREDIT. WE HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW COVERAGE THUNDER
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. 1500-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM OF
CONVECTIVE ENERGY BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR CONTRIBUTING TO BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND BRIEF MOSTLY WEAK HAIL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAKE ON BETTER NORTHERLY DRIFT...THOUGH BELIEVE
MOST ACTIVITY WILL RELENT BY DARK. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  20   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  20   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /  20   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       72  93  68  92  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /  20   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 030431
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1131 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH CLEAR SKIES EVENTUALLY BEING
INVADED BY STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT WACO AND THE DALLAS AREA TERMINALS...WITH FTW AND AFW
REMAINING JUST WEST OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WE WILL INDICATE A 11Z OSET IN KACT AND 13Z IN THE METROPLEX...AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE 15-16Z.

OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO
15 KT. FOR WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD APPROACH THE WACO
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TOO LOW
TO MENTION ON THE FORECAST.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVED THE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AT MIDDAY WHICH MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE
CWA BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD TO 10 POPS FROM
GAINESVILLE TO CANTON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BY/AROUND SUNSET.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LITTLE ELSE.

COME THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
BOUNDARY FROM NEW MEXICO TO WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD AS PRECIPITATION
COOLED AIR REINFORCES FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCES THE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH EACH DAY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...THUS POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. RIGHT NOW
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SHEAR WILL BE
LOW AND LAPSE RATES NEAR MOISTURE ADIABATIC.

DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.    75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  96  78  96  77 /   5   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              77  97  75  97  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  93  74  93  73 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            76  95  75  95  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  94  75  94  74 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  96  78  96  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  96  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  96  75  96  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  97  74 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  96  74  95  73 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58






000
FXUS64 KFWD 030431
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1131 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH CLEAR SKIES EVENTUALLY BEING
INVADED BY STRATUS FROM THE SOUTH. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT WACO AND THE DALLAS AREA TERMINALS...WITH FTW AND AFW
REMAINING JUST WEST OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WE WILL INDICATE A 11Z OSET IN KACT AND 13Z IN THE METROPLEX...AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE 15-16Z.

OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO
15 KT. FOR WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD APPROACH THE WACO
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TOO LOW
TO MENTION ON THE FORECAST.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVED THE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AT MIDDAY WHICH MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE
CWA BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD TO 10 POPS FROM
GAINESVILLE TO CANTON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BY/AROUND SUNSET.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LITTLE ELSE.

COME THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
BOUNDARY FROM NEW MEXICO TO WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD AS PRECIPITATION
COOLED AIR REINFORCES FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCES THE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH EACH DAY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...THUS POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. RIGHT NOW
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SHEAR WILL BE
LOW AND LAPSE RATES NEAR MOISTURE ADIABATIC.

DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.    75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  96  78  96  77 /   5   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              77  97  75  97  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  93  74  93  73 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            76  95  75  95  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  94  75  94  74 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  96  78  96  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  96  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  96  75  96  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  97  74 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  96  74  95  73 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 030421
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1120 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue over the northern terminals through the
next 24 hours. Stratus is expected to once again develop over the
southern terminals beginning around 10Z at KSOA and KJCT and around
12Z at KBBD resulting in MVFR ceilings through around 17Z. There is
a slight chance of convective activity in the vicinity of the
southern terminals in the afternoon and early evening hours. Have
not mentioned in the TAFs due to inherent uncertainty in coverage.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
.UPDATE...

A few showers have made it into the northwest Hill Country, from
near Mason to San Saba. This activity will drift northwest at 15 mph
for the next 1-2 hours, dissipating around sunset. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms were added through 9 PM east of a Junction to
Brady line. Otherwise, changes were minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail over much of the next 24 hours, with
trends similar to the past day. Brady, Junction, and Sonora will see
some MVFR ceilings tomorrow mornings shortly before sunrise, burning
off by mid morning. Winds will again be gusty tomorrow afternoon out
of the southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Upper level ridging is in place across Texas this afternoon,
keeping the afternoon warm, but not as hot as yesterday. Mid to
upper 90s are common, with a few readings near 100 degrees.
Farther south, Tropical Storm Dolly continues to make slow
progress toward the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, and is
expected to move into Mexico over the next day before losing its
tropical storm designation. Closer to home, scattered showers have
developed along and southeast of the I-35 corridor this afternoon,
but are running into stronger subsidence from ridging in our area,
and aren`t likely to make it into west central Texas tonight, so
have kept the forecast dry tonight. Tomorrow, as Dolly`s influence
spreads a little farther north, we could see some of the showers
and thunderstorms make it into our southern counties, so have
brought a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas
roughly along and south of a line from San Saba, to Brady, to
Barnhart for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, models continue to
indicate a slight cooling for temperatures in the low levels
tomorrow, so have continued the trend for slightly cooler highs on
Wednesday. However, overnight lows will remain warm, with mainly
mid and upper 70s tonight.

20

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Saturday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas into early this weekend. Looks like the
moisture from the remnants of Dolly make it as far north along the
Rio Grande river valley and deep south Texas, still remaining south
of our area. However, and isolated shower or storm is not out of the
question along the I-10 corridor mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Will keep this part of the extended forecast
dry for now. Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels and
staying below 100 for highs.

/Saturday Night through next Tuesday/
Looks like the better chance for rain will be over the last part of
the weekend into Monday morning. The combination of a weak cool
front/thunderstorm outflow boundary moving south from Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas, will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of a San Angelo to San Saba line. The highest
rain chances will be north of the I-20 corridor. The early part of
next week will see dry conditions return to the area.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  74  95  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  74  95  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
Junction  75  93  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Reimer
Short term: Johnson







000
FXUS64 KSJT 030421
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1120 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue over the northern terminals through the
next 24 hours. Stratus is expected to once again develop over the
southern terminals beginning around 10Z at KSOA and KJCT and around
12Z at KBBD resulting in MVFR ceilings through around 17Z. There is
a slight chance of convective activity in the vicinity of the
southern terminals in the afternoon and early evening hours. Have
not mentioned in the TAFs due to inherent uncertainty in coverage.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
.UPDATE...

A few showers have made it into the northwest Hill Country, from
near Mason to San Saba. This activity will drift northwest at 15 mph
for the next 1-2 hours, dissipating around sunset. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms were added through 9 PM east of a Junction to
Brady line. Otherwise, changes were minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail over much of the next 24 hours, with
trends similar to the past day. Brady, Junction, and Sonora will see
some MVFR ceilings tomorrow mornings shortly before sunrise, burning
off by mid morning. Winds will again be gusty tomorrow afternoon out
of the southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Upper level ridging is in place across Texas this afternoon,
keeping the afternoon warm, but not as hot as yesterday. Mid to
upper 90s are common, with a few readings near 100 degrees.
Farther south, Tropical Storm Dolly continues to make slow
progress toward the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, and is
expected to move into Mexico over the next day before losing its
tropical storm designation. Closer to home, scattered showers have
developed along and southeast of the I-35 corridor this afternoon,
but are running into stronger subsidence from ridging in our area,
and aren`t likely to make it into west central Texas tonight, so
have kept the forecast dry tonight. Tomorrow, as Dolly`s influence
spreads a little farther north, we could see some of the showers
and thunderstorms make it into our southern counties, so have
brought a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas
roughly along and south of a line from San Saba, to Brady, to
Barnhart for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, models continue to
indicate a slight cooling for temperatures in the low levels
tomorrow, so have continued the trend for slightly cooler highs on
Wednesday. However, overnight lows will remain warm, with mainly
mid and upper 70s tonight.

20

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Saturday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas into early this weekend. Looks like the
moisture from the remnants of Dolly make it as far north along the
Rio Grande river valley and deep south Texas, still remaining south
of our area. However, and isolated shower or storm is not out of the
question along the I-10 corridor mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Will keep this part of the extended forecast
dry for now. Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels and
staying below 100 for highs.

/Saturday Night through next Tuesday/
Looks like the better chance for rain will be over the last part of
the weekend into Monday morning. The combination of a weak cool
front/thunderstorm outflow boundary moving south from Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas, will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of a San Angelo to San Saba line. The highest
rain chances will be north of the I-20 corridor. The early part of
next week will see dry conditions return to the area.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  74  95  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  74  95  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
Junction  75  93  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Reimer
Short term: Johnson






000
FXUS64 KAMA 030256 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
956 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
EARLIER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS
AND THEN ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE RAPIDLY COMING TO AN END.  HAVE
UPDATED GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS TO REMOVE SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAD BEEN INSERTED EARLIER.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME JUST SOUTH OF KAMA
ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS AND CONVERGENCE ZONE.  WILL INCLUDE VCTS AND
TEMPO TSRA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KAMA.  COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KT WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO SOUTH AND
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY.  SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE AROUND 14Z OR 15Z WEDNESDAY.  CLEAR SKY EXPECTED MOST OF
THE DAY...WITH HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND KDHT AROUND 21Z
WEDNESDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

NO OVERWHELMING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES TO ABOUND LATER IN THE PERIOD.  ONE OF THE MAIN SOURCES OF
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE THE TROPICS AS TS DOLLY IN THE WRN GULF
AND TS NORBERT IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTE MOISTURE
TO THE PATTERN EVENTUALLY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE OVERALL
UPR AIR PATTERN EVOLUTION IN WAYS THAT WILL NOT BE WELL MODELED.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THE LIGHT
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WED AND THU WILL BE MUCH BREEZIER DAYS AS SSW
WINDS PICK UP.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE WRN OK PANHANDLE THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT SLIPPING IN AND ERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHRTWV.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
TRIED VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN A TIME PERIOD OR LOCATION WHERE PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST BUT WEAK FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE MEANS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. DO THINK
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER IN THIS
PERIOD. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONGEALING A BIT BETTER ON TEMPERATURES
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13






000
FXUS64 KAMA 030256 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
956 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
EARLIER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS
AND THEN ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE RAPIDLY COMING TO AN END.  HAVE
UPDATED GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORECASTS TO REMOVE SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAD BEEN INSERTED EARLIER.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME JUST SOUTH OF KAMA
ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS AND CONVERGENCE ZONE.  WILL INCLUDE VCTS AND
TEMPO TSRA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KAMA.  COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KT WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO SOUTH AND
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY.  SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE AROUND 14Z OR 15Z WEDNESDAY.  CLEAR SKY EXPECTED MOST OF
THE DAY...WITH HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND KDHT AROUND 21Z
WEDNESDAY.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

NO OVERWHELMING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES TO ABOUND LATER IN THE PERIOD.  ONE OF THE MAIN SOURCES OF
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE THE TROPICS AS TS DOLLY IN THE WRN GULF
AND TS NORBERT IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTE MOISTURE
TO THE PATTERN EVENTUALLY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE OVERALL
UPR AIR PATTERN EVOLUTION IN WAYS THAT WILL NOT BE WELL MODELED.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THE LIGHT
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WED AND THU WILL BE MUCH BREEZIER DAYS AS SSW
WINDS PICK UP.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE WRN OK PANHANDLE THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT SLIPPING IN AND ERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHRTWV.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
TRIED VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN A TIME PERIOD OR LOCATION WHERE PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST BUT WEAK FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE MEANS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. DO THINK
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER IN THIS
PERIOD. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONGEALING A BIT BETTER ON TEMPERATURES
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13





000
FXUS64 KEWX 030242 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
942 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST TO EXPAND RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. WE
STILL EXPECT A DECREASING TREND THIS EVENING...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MINOR
CHANGES HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE SKY COVER...WINDS AND DEW
POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z AND HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT A REPEAT TONIGHT OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH
MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 07Z AT THE I-35 SITES AND 10Z AT
KDRT. MVFR SHOULD LAST UNTIL 16Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR CIGS. THE
I-35 SITES SHOULD HAVE SCT CLOUDS AFTER 20Z...BUT ALSO A PROB30 OF
TSRA FROM 20-24Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND BECOME 10G22KT
AT 16Z FOR KDRT...AND AFTER 20Z AT THE I-35 SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A DEEPER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING BY A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET. AS DOLLY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS...THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH DISSIPATION MOST AREAS BY SUNSET. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED
IN THE SOUTH AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCING
LIFT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NIGHTTIME RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. A SLIGHT
COOLING OF HIGHS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANT LOW OF DOLLY WILL DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...RETREATING TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. IN ADDITION...ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY BRIEFLY
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES AND THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ENDING THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...EXCEPT
A BRIEF DIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  98  76  98  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  96  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  95  75  95  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  96  74  96  74 /  20  30  10  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  96  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12









000
FXUS64 KEWX 030242 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
942 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST TO EXPAND RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. WE
STILL EXPECT A DECREASING TREND THIS EVENING...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MINOR
CHANGES HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE SKY COVER...WINDS AND DEW
POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z AND HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT A REPEAT TONIGHT OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH
MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 07Z AT THE I-35 SITES AND 10Z AT
KDRT. MVFR SHOULD LAST UNTIL 16Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR CIGS. THE
I-35 SITES SHOULD HAVE SCT CLOUDS AFTER 20Z...BUT ALSO A PROB30 OF
TSRA FROM 20-24Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND BECOME 10G22KT
AT 16Z FOR KDRT...AND AFTER 20Z AT THE I-35 SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A DEEPER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING BY A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET. AS DOLLY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS...THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH DISSIPATION MOST AREAS BY SUNSET. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED
IN THE SOUTH AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCING
LIFT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NIGHTTIME RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. A SLIGHT
COOLING OF HIGHS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANT LOW OF DOLLY WILL DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...RETREATING TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. IN ADDITION...ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY BRIEFLY
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES AND THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ENDING THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...EXCEPT
A BRIEF DIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  98  76  98  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  96  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  95  75  95  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  96  74  96  74 /  20  30  10  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  96  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12









000
FXUS64 KEWX 030242 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
942 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST TO EXPAND RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. WE
STILL EXPECT A DECREASING TREND THIS EVENING...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MINOR
CHANGES HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE SKY COVER...WINDS AND DEW
POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z AND HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT A REPEAT TONIGHT OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH
MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 07Z AT THE I-35 SITES AND 10Z AT
KDRT. MVFR SHOULD LAST UNTIL 16Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR CIGS. THE
I-35 SITES SHOULD HAVE SCT CLOUDS AFTER 20Z...BUT ALSO A PROB30 OF
TSRA FROM 20-24Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND BECOME 10G22KT
AT 16Z FOR KDRT...AND AFTER 20Z AT THE I-35 SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A DEEPER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING BY A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET. AS DOLLY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS...THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH DISSIPATION MOST AREAS BY SUNSET. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED
IN THE SOUTH AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCING
LIFT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NIGHTTIME RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. A SLIGHT
COOLING OF HIGHS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANT LOW OF DOLLY WILL DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...RETREATING TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. IN ADDITION...ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY BRIEFLY
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES AND THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ENDING THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...EXCEPT
A BRIEF DIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  98  76  98  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  96  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  95  75  95  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  96  74  96  74 /  20  30  10  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  96  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12









000
FXUS64 KEWX 030242 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
942 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST TO EXPAND RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. WE
STILL EXPECT A DECREASING TREND THIS EVENING...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MINOR
CHANGES HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE SKY COVER...WINDS AND DEW
POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z AND HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT A REPEAT TONIGHT OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH
MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 07Z AT THE I-35 SITES AND 10Z AT
KDRT. MVFR SHOULD LAST UNTIL 16Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR CIGS. THE
I-35 SITES SHOULD HAVE SCT CLOUDS AFTER 20Z...BUT ALSO A PROB30 OF
TSRA FROM 20-24Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND BECOME 10G22KT
AT 16Z FOR KDRT...AND AFTER 20Z AT THE I-35 SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A DEEPER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING BY A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET. AS DOLLY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS...THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH DISSIPATION MOST AREAS BY SUNSET. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED
IN THE SOUTH AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCING
LIFT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NIGHTTIME RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. A SLIGHT
COOLING OF HIGHS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANT LOW OF DOLLY WILL DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...RETREATING TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. IN ADDITION...ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY BRIEFLY
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES AND THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ENDING THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...EXCEPT
A BRIEF DIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  98  76  98  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  96  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  95  75  95  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  96  74  96  74 /  20  30  10  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  96  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12









000
FXUS64 KHGX 030122
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
822 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AND
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THERE. SURGE OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN COMING
INTO MATAGORDA BAY REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA GIVEN THE
ACARS PROFILES DON`T EXPECT THESE TO MAKE IT FAR INLAND. HAVE
LOWERED POPS AND ALTERED THE WORDING AS WELL AS CLEARED OUT SKIES
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. STRATUS
DEVELOPING A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS AS WELL
AS PATCHY LIGHT FOG. FORECAST WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE. MIGHT GET SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER THE SUN RISES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WITH PRETTY GOOD
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH SO THINK SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN TODAY. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030122
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
822 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AND
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THERE. SURGE OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN COMING
INTO MATAGORDA BAY REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA GIVEN THE
ACARS PROFILES DON`T EXPECT THESE TO MAKE IT FAR INLAND. HAVE
LOWERED POPS AND ALTERED THE WORDING AS WELL AS CLEARED OUT SKIES
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. STRATUS
DEVELOPING A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS AS WELL
AS PATCHY LIGHT FOG. FORECAST WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE. MIGHT GET SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER THE SUN RISES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WITH PRETTY GOOD
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH SO THINK SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN TODAY. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030122
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
822 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AND
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THERE. SURGE OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN COMING
INTO MATAGORDA BAY REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA GIVEN THE
ACARS PROFILES DON`T EXPECT THESE TO MAKE IT FAR INLAND. HAVE
LOWERED POPS AND ALTERED THE WORDING AS WELL AS CLEARED OUT SKIES
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. STRATUS
DEVELOPING A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS AS WELL
AS PATCHY LIGHT FOG. FORECAST WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE. MIGHT GET SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER THE SUN RISES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WITH PRETTY GOOD
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH SO THINK SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN TODAY. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030122
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
822 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AND
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THERE. SURGE OF MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN COMING
INTO MATAGORDA BAY REGION ACCOMPANIED BY SHRA/TSRA GIVEN THE
ACARS PROFILES DON`T EXPECT THESE TO MAKE IT FAR INLAND. HAVE
LOWERED POPS AND ALTERED THE WORDING AS WELL AS CLEARED OUT SKIES
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. STRATUS
DEVELOPING A POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS AS WELL
AS PATCHY LIGHT FOG. FORECAST WITH LESS COVERAGE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE. MIGHT GET SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER THE SUN RISES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WITH PRETTY GOOD
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH SO THINK SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN TODAY. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KFWD 030032 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
732 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVED THE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ARE QUICKLY WANING THIS EVENING DUE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID & UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD. WE
HAVE BEEN KEEPING OUR EYE ON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE DFW TRACON FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THIS TOO WILL BE ELIMINATED BY THE RIDGE. THE BOUNDARY WAS
GENERATED BY A THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEX NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND HAD BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH AREA. THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FEATURE HAS SLOWED AND
WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE WASHING OUT NORTHEAST OF ALL TAF LOCALES.
AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY
SO A RETURN OF MVFR IS LIKELY FOR WACO AND THE DALLAS AREA
AIRPORTS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT BY MID
DAY AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ...MAINLY NEAR KACT...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY FOR TS REMAINS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE WACO FORECAST.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AT MIDDAY WHICH MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE
CWA BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD TO 10 POPS FROM
GAINESVILLE TO CANTON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BY/AROUND SUNSET.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LITTLE ELSE.

COME THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
BOUNDARY FROM NEW MEXICO TO WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD AS PRECIPITATION
COOLED AIR REINFORCES FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCES THE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH EACH DAY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...THUS POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. RIGHT NOW
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SHEAR WILL BE
LOW AND LAPSE RATES NEAR MOISTURE ADIABATIC.

DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.    75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  96  78  96  77 /   5   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              77  97  75  97  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  93  74  93  73 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            76  95  75  95  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  94  75  94  74 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  96  78  96  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  96  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  96  75  96  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  97  74 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  96  74  95  73 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 030032 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
732 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVED THE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ARE QUICKLY WANING THIS EVENING DUE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID & UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD. WE
HAVE BEEN KEEPING OUR EYE ON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE DFW TRACON FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THIS TOO WILL BE ELIMINATED BY THE RIDGE. THE BOUNDARY WAS
GENERATED BY A THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEX NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND HAD BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH AREA. THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FEATURE HAS SLOWED AND
WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE WASHING OUT NORTHEAST OF ALL TAF LOCALES.
AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY
SO A RETURN OF MVFR IS LIKELY FOR WACO AND THE DALLAS AREA
AIRPORTS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT BY MID
DAY AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ...MAINLY NEAR KACT...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY FOR TS REMAINS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE WACO FORECAST.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AT MIDDAY WHICH MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE
CWA BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD TO 10 POPS FROM
GAINESVILLE TO CANTON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BY/AROUND SUNSET.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LITTLE ELSE.

COME THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
BOUNDARY FROM NEW MEXICO TO WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD AS PRECIPITATION
COOLED AIR REINFORCES FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCES THE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH EACH DAY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...THUS POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. RIGHT NOW
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SHEAR WILL BE
LOW AND LAPSE RATES NEAR MOISTURE ADIABATIC.

DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.    75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  96  78  96  77 /   5   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              77  97  75  97  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  93  74  93  73 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            76  95  75  95  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  94  75  94  74 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  96  78  96  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  96  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  96  75  96  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  97  74 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  96  74  95  73 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 030032 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
732 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVED THE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ARE QUICKLY WANING THIS EVENING DUE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID & UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD. WE
HAVE BEEN KEEPING OUR EYE ON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE DFW TRACON FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THIS TOO WILL BE ELIMINATED BY THE RIDGE. THE BOUNDARY WAS
GENERATED BY A THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEX NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND HAD BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH AREA. THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FEATURE HAS SLOWED AND
WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE WASHING OUT NORTHEAST OF ALL TAF LOCALES.
AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY
SO A RETURN OF MVFR IS LIKELY FOR WACO AND THE DALLAS AREA
AIRPORTS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT BY MID
DAY AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ...MAINLY NEAR KACT...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY FOR TS REMAINS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE WACO FORECAST.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AT MIDDAY WHICH MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE
CWA BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD TO 10 POPS FROM
GAINESVILLE TO CANTON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BY/AROUND SUNSET.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LITTLE ELSE.

COME THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
BOUNDARY FROM NEW MEXICO TO WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD AS PRECIPITATION
COOLED AIR REINFORCES FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCES THE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH EACH DAY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...THUS POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. RIGHT NOW
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SHEAR WILL BE
LOW AND LAPSE RATES NEAR MOISTURE ADIABATIC.

DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.    75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  96  78  96  77 /   5   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              77  97  75  97  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  93  74  93  73 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            76  95  75  95  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  94  75  94  74 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  96  78  96  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  96  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  96  75  96  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  97  74 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  96  74  95  73 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 030032 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
732 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVED THE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT/WIND GRIDS.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 602 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ARE QUICKLY WANING THIS EVENING DUE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID & UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD. WE
HAVE BEEN KEEPING OUR EYE ON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE DFW TRACON FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THIS TOO WILL BE ELIMINATED BY THE RIDGE. THE BOUNDARY WAS
GENERATED BY A THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEX NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND HAD BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH AREA. THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FEATURE HAS SLOWED AND
WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE WASHING OUT NORTHEAST OF ALL TAF LOCALES.
AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY
SO A RETURN OF MVFR IS LIKELY FOR WACO AND THE DALLAS AREA
AIRPORTS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT BY MID
DAY AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ...MAINLY NEAR KACT...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY FOR TS REMAINS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE WACO FORECAST.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AT MIDDAY WHICH MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE
CWA BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD TO 10 POPS FROM
GAINESVILLE TO CANTON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BY/AROUND SUNSET.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LITTLE ELSE.

COME THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
BOUNDARY FROM NEW MEXICO TO WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD AS PRECIPITATION
COOLED AIR REINFORCES FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCES THE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH EACH DAY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...THUS POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. RIGHT NOW
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SHEAR WILL BE
LOW AND LAPSE RATES NEAR MOISTURE ADIABATIC.

DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.    75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  96  78  96  77 /   5   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              77  97  75  97  75 /  10  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  93  74  93  73 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            76  95  75  95  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  94  75  94  74 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  96  78  96  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  96  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         76  96  75  96  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  97  74 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  96  74  95  73 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58







000
FXUS64 KEWX 030025 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
725 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST TO EXPAND RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. WE
STILL EXPECT A DECREASING TREND THIS EVENING...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MINOR
CHANGES HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE SKY COVER...WINDS AND DEW
POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z AND HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT A REPEAT TONIGHT OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH
MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 07Z AT THE I-35 SITES AND 10Z AT
KDRT. MVFR SHOULD LAST UNTIL 16Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR CIGS. THE
I-35 SITES SHOULD HAVE SCT CLOUDS AFTER 20Z...BUT ALSO A PROB30 OF
TSRA FROM 20-24Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND BECOME 10G22KT
AT 16Z FOR KDRT...AND AFTER 20Z AT THE I-35 SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A DEEPER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING BY A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET. AS DOLLY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS...THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH DISSIPATION MOST AREAS BY SUNSET. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED
IN THE SOUTH AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCING
LIFT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NIGHTTIME RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. A SLIGHT
COOLING OF HIGHS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANT LOW OF DOLLY WILL DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...RETREATING TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. IN ADDITION...ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY BRIEFLY
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES AND THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ENDING THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...EXCEPT
A BRIEF DIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  98  76  98  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  96  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  95  75  95  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  96  74  96  74 /  20  30  10  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  96  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12









000
FXUS64 KEWX 030025 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
725 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST TO EXPAND RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. WE
STILL EXPECT A DECREASING TREND THIS EVENING...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT
MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MINOR
CHANGES HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE SKY COVER...WINDS AND DEW
POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z AND HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT A REPEAT TONIGHT OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH
MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 07Z AT THE I-35 SITES AND 10Z AT
KDRT. MVFR SHOULD LAST UNTIL 16Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR CIGS. THE
I-35 SITES SHOULD HAVE SCT CLOUDS AFTER 20Z...BUT ALSO A PROB30 OF
TSRA FROM 20-24Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND BECOME 10G22KT
AT 16Z FOR KDRT...AND AFTER 20Z AT THE I-35 SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A DEEPER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING BY A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET. AS DOLLY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS...THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH DISSIPATION MOST AREAS BY SUNSET. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED
IN THE SOUTH AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCING
LIFT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NIGHTTIME RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. A SLIGHT
COOLING OF HIGHS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANT LOW OF DOLLY WILL DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...RETREATING TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. IN ADDITION...ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY BRIEFLY
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES AND THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ENDING THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...EXCEPT
A BRIEF DIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  98  76  98  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  96  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  95  75  95  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  96  74  96  74 /  20  30  10  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  96  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12










000
FXUS64 KLUB 030006
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
706 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO HAVE BY-PASSED KLBB WHILE
REMAINING FAR WEST OF KCDS THIS EVENING. VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OTHER THAN A RISK FOR AN IFR/MVFR CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AT KLBB. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS BEST-GUESS...BUT GIVE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS SOME CREDIT. WE HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW COVERAGE THUNDER
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. 1500-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM OF
CONVECTIVE ENERGY BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR CONTRIBUTING TO BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND BRIEF MOSTLY WEAK HAIL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAKE ON BETTER NORTHERLY DRIFT...THOUGH BELIEVE
MOST ACTIVITY WILL RELENT BY DARK. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  20   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  20   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /  20   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       72  93  68  92  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /  20   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05





000
FXUS64 KLUB 030006
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
706 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO HAVE BY-PASSED KLBB WHILE
REMAINING FAR WEST OF KCDS THIS EVENING. VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OTHER THAN A RISK FOR AN IFR/MVFR CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AT KLBB. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS BEST-GUESS...BUT GIVE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS SOME CREDIT. WE HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW COVERAGE THUNDER
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. 1500-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM OF
CONVECTIVE ENERGY BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR CONTRIBUTING TO BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND BRIEF MOSTLY WEAK HAIL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAKE ON BETTER NORTHERLY DRIFT...THOUGH BELIEVE
MOST ACTIVITY WILL RELENT BY DARK. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  20   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  20   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /  20   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       72  93  68  92  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /  20   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05






000
FXUS64 KCRP 022343
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
643 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES ANTICIPATED NEAR ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRG THE MID
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
COUNTIES OF WEBB...DUVAL...JIM WELLS...AND KLEBERG. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO OCCUR. GENERALLY LGT
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO GENERALLY MODERATE DRG THE
AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS THE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. AS THE TRACK OF T.S.
DOLLY CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL SOUTH OF THE
BORDER THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIT
MORE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF DOLLY STRETCHING INTO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED
POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA...WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS
AS THE WEAKENED SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE LOWERED
CHANCES...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING
CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS LOWERED SOME WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
MOISTURE FIELD IS APPEARING TO BE A LITTLE MORE LIMITED THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. GUIDANCE SUITES CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH HANDLING
OF REMNANTS OF TROP STORM DOLLY WITH GFS TAKING REMNANT VORTICITY
WESTWARD INTO MX WHILE ECMWF/CMC INCREASE DPVA ACROSS NORTHERN
COAHUILA MX AND S TX. THUS...GFS IS DRIER THAN ECMWF/CMC. GIVEN
CURRENT TRACK OF DOLLY...GFS HANDLING OF REMNANTS MAY BE PANNING
OUT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT FOR AT LEAST DAILY CHANCES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ENOUGH DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND STRENGTHENING OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AID IN REDUCTION OF POPS. ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A WEAK FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
HAVE WARMED MAX TEMPS FOR MOST DAYTIME PERIODS GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS AND STRENGTHENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND THEN FALL TO SEASONABLY LEVELS AS ATMOSPHERE
DRIES.

MARINE...PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASED SWELLS
FROM T.S. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM PORT ARANSAS SOUTH
TO PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
OVERNIGHT DURING HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...INCREASED SEAS AND A
TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  78  92  77  /  30  40  30  40  20
VICTORIA          77  95  77  96  76  /  20  30  20  30  10
LAREDO            80  95  78  98  79  /  20  50  40  40  30
ALICE             76  93  77  96  75  /  20  40  30  40  20
ROCKPORT          81  92  80  90  80  /  30  40  30  40  20
COTULLA           77  95  76  97  76  /  20  40  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        79  92  78  96  77  /  30  50  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  89  80  91  80  /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 022343
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
643 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES ANTICIPATED NEAR ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRG THE MID
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
COUNTIES OF WEBB...DUVAL...JIM WELLS...AND KLEBERG. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO OCCUR. GENERALLY LGT
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO GENERALLY MODERATE DRG THE
AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS THE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. AS THE TRACK OF T.S.
DOLLY CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL SOUTH OF THE
BORDER THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIT
MORE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF DOLLY STRETCHING INTO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED
POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA...WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS
AS THE WEAKENED SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE LOWERED
CHANCES...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING
CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS LOWERED SOME WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
MOISTURE FIELD IS APPEARING TO BE A LITTLE MORE LIMITED THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. GUIDANCE SUITES CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH HANDLING
OF REMNANTS OF TROP STORM DOLLY WITH GFS TAKING REMNANT VORTICITY
WESTWARD INTO MX WHILE ECMWF/CMC INCREASE DPVA ACROSS NORTHERN
COAHUILA MX AND S TX. THUS...GFS IS DRIER THAN ECMWF/CMC. GIVEN
CURRENT TRACK OF DOLLY...GFS HANDLING OF REMNANTS MAY BE PANNING
OUT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT FOR AT LEAST DAILY CHANCES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ENOUGH DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND STRENGTHENING OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AID IN REDUCTION OF POPS. ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A WEAK FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
HAVE WARMED MAX TEMPS FOR MOST DAYTIME PERIODS GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS AND STRENGTHENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND THEN FALL TO SEASONABLY LEVELS AS ATMOSPHERE
DRIES.

MARINE...PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASED SWELLS
FROM T.S. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM PORT ARANSAS SOUTH
TO PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
OVERNIGHT DURING HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...INCREASED SEAS AND A
TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  78  92  77  /  30  40  30  40  20
VICTORIA          77  95  77  96  76  /  20  30  20  30  10
LAREDO            80  95  78  98  79  /  20  50  40  40  30
ALICE             76  93  77  96  75  /  20  40  30  40  20
ROCKPORT          81  92  80  90  80  /  30  40  30  40  20
COTULLA           77  95  76  97  76  /  20  40  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        79  92  78  96  77  /  30  50  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  89  80  91  80  /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KBRO 022343 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
LATER TONIGHT ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF KBRO. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL STORM WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE BAND OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE STORM BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATER WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
PREDOMINATE VFR WITH PREVAILING SHRA WITH TEMPO PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ESPEICALLY AS THE
RAIN BANDS BECOME MORE INTENSE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE
BEST TIME WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DOLLY IS HEADED
TOWARD LANDFALL THIS EVENING ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN AMOUNTS.
MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO WED. CONVERGENT
BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER IT MOVES INLAND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT FOR RAIN LOCALLY... WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE PEAK. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.16 INCHES WITH DEEP EAST FLOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO TWO AND A QUARTER INCHES ON WED...COURTESY
OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. RAIN AMOUNTS COULD RANGE BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IMPACTS WILL BE INCLUDE MAINLY
NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER COULD ACCUMULATE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ANY BREAKS IN THE SKY ALLOWING
FOR A PEAK AT THE SUN WEDNESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY BEING DEFLECTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST. INCREASING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED MARINE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR
TODAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER LAND. MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE SAVED UNTIL WEDNESDAY. CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THOUGH...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS
DOWN IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE LOWER...POSSIBLY BEING HELD BELOW 90 FOR MANY AREAS
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SPORADIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT A GENERAL LETUP WILL BE ON TAP AS DOLLY MOVES
INLAND AND WEAKENS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND UPRIVER OVER THE UPPER VALLEY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...REMNANTS OF DOLLY CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH MOISTURE STILL
HANGING AROUND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. AFTER FRIDAY...THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS TEXAS...INHIBITING THE CONVECTIVE FORMATION SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS DIVERGE AFTER SATURDAY..WITH JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THEM TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MIDLEVEL LOW THAT IS SWIRLING ABOVE THE BAHAMAS
WILL CONTINUE TO TREK WWD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST ISSUE IS WILL THIS FEATURE CONTINUE
WWD AND REACH THE WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK...OR GET SLOWED
DOWN BY WEAK TROUGHING FROM THE NORTH. CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD
THE LATTER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF...WITH A DRIER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF
WATERS WILL INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST AND THEN
MOVES INLAND. WINDS TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 11 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS EAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND THE CITY
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
TROPICAL SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO INCREASE...PRODUCING
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CSTL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE HAZARDOUS
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...AND A RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY WANE. THURSDAY SEAS OF 4
TO 5 FEET WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 2 FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  86  80  89 /  70  70  40  40
BROWNSVILLE          78  86  78  90 /  70  70  40  40
HARLINGEN            78  87  78  90 /  70  70  40  40
MCALLEN              78  88  77  92 /  60  70  40  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  89  77  92 /  50  60  40  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  85  81  86 /  70  70  40  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/68






000
FXUS64 KBRO 022343 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
LATER TONIGHT ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF KBRO. RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL STORM WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND BECOME MORE FREQUENT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE BAND OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE STORM BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO LATER WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
PREDOMINATE VFR WITH PREVAILING SHRA WITH TEMPO PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ESPEICALLY AS THE
RAIN BANDS BECOME MORE INTENSE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE
BEST TIME WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DOLLY IS HEADED
TOWARD LANDFALL THIS EVENING ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN AMOUNTS.
MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO WED. CONVERGENT
BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER IT MOVES INLAND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT FOR RAIN LOCALLY... WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE PEAK. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.16 INCHES WITH DEEP EAST FLOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO TWO AND A QUARTER INCHES ON WED...COURTESY
OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. RAIN AMOUNTS COULD RANGE BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IMPACTS WILL BE INCLUDE MAINLY
NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER COULD ACCUMULATE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ANY BREAKS IN THE SKY ALLOWING
FOR A PEAK AT THE SUN WEDNESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY BEING DEFLECTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST. INCREASING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED MARINE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR
TODAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER LAND. MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE SAVED UNTIL WEDNESDAY. CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THOUGH...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS
DOWN IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE LOWER...POSSIBLY BEING HELD BELOW 90 FOR MANY AREAS
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SPORADIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT A GENERAL LETUP WILL BE ON TAP AS DOLLY MOVES
INLAND AND WEAKENS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND UPRIVER OVER THE UPPER VALLEY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...REMNANTS OF DOLLY CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH MOISTURE STILL
HANGING AROUND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. AFTER FRIDAY...THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS TEXAS...INHIBITING THE CONVECTIVE FORMATION SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS DIVERGE AFTER SATURDAY..WITH JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THEM TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MIDLEVEL LOW THAT IS SWIRLING ABOVE THE BAHAMAS
WILL CONTINUE TO TREK WWD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST ISSUE IS WILL THIS FEATURE CONTINUE
WWD AND REACH THE WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK...OR GET SLOWED
DOWN BY WEAK TROUGHING FROM THE NORTH. CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD
THE LATTER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF...WITH A DRIER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF
WATERS WILL INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST AND THEN
MOVES INLAND. WINDS TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 11 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS EAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND THE CITY
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
TROPICAL SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO INCREASE...PRODUCING
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CSTL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE HAZARDOUS
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...AND A RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY WANE. THURSDAY SEAS OF 4
TO 5 FEET WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 2 FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  86  80  89 /  70  70  40  40
BROWNSVILLE          78  86  78  90 /  70  70  40  40
HARLINGEN            78  87  78  90 /  70  70  40  40
MCALLEN              78  88  77  92 /  60  70  40  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  89  77  92 /  50  60  40  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  85  81  86 /  70  70  40  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/68





000
FXUS64 KEWX 022342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z AND HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT A REPEAT TONIGHT OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH
MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 07Z AT THE I-35 SITES AND 10Z AT
KDRT. MVFR SHOULD LAST UNTIL 16Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR CIGS. THE
I-35 SITES SHOULD HAVE SCT CLOUDS AFTER 20Z...BUT ALSO A PROB30 OF
TSRA FROM 20-24Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND BECOME 10G22KT
AT 16Z FOR KDRT...AND AFTER 20Z AT THE I-35 SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A DEEPER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING BY A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET. AS DOLLY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS...THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH DISSIPATION MOST AREAS BY SUNSET. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED
IN THE SOUTH AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCING
LIFT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NIGHTTIME RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. A SLIGHT
COOLING OF HIGHS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANT LOW OF DOLLY WILL DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...RETREATING TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. IN ADDITION...ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY BRIEFLY
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES AND THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ENDING THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...EXCEPT
A BRIEF DIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  98  76  98  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  96  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  95  75  95  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  96  74  96  74 /  20  30  10  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  96  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 022342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z AND HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT A REPEAT TONIGHT OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH
MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 07Z AT THE I-35 SITES AND 10Z AT
KDRT. MVFR SHOULD LAST UNTIL 16Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR CIGS. THE
I-35 SITES SHOULD HAVE SCT CLOUDS AFTER 20Z...BUT ALSO A PROB30 OF
TSRA FROM 20-24Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND BECOME 10G22KT
AT 16Z FOR KDRT...AND AFTER 20Z AT THE I-35 SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A DEEPER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING BY A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET. AS DOLLY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS...THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH DISSIPATION MOST AREAS BY SUNSET. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED
IN THE SOUTH AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCING
LIFT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NIGHTTIME RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. A SLIGHT
COOLING OF HIGHS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANT LOW OF DOLLY WILL DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...RETREATING TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. IN ADDITION...ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY BRIEFLY
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES AND THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ENDING THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...EXCEPT
A BRIEF DIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  98  76  98  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  96  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  95  75  95  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  96  74  96  74 /  20  30  10  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  96  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 022342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z AND HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT A REPEAT TONIGHT OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH
MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 07Z AT THE I-35 SITES AND 10Z AT
KDRT. MVFR SHOULD LAST UNTIL 16Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR CIGS. THE
I-35 SITES SHOULD HAVE SCT CLOUDS AFTER 20Z...BUT ALSO A PROB30 OF
TSRA FROM 20-24Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND BECOME 10G22KT
AT 16Z FOR KDRT...AND AFTER 20Z AT THE I-35 SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A DEEPER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING BY A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET. AS DOLLY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS...THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH DISSIPATION MOST AREAS BY SUNSET. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED
IN THE SOUTH AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCING
LIFT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NIGHTTIME RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. A SLIGHT
COOLING OF HIGHS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANT LOW OF DOLLY WILL DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...RETREATING TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. IN ADDITION...ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY BRIEFLY
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES AND THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ENDING THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...EXCEPT
A BRIEF DIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  98  76  98  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  96  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  95  75  95  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  96  74  96  74 /  20  30  10  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  96  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 022342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLD TO SCT SHRA WILL DISSIPATE BY 02Z AND HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT A REPEAT TONIGHT OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH
MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 07Z AT THE I-35 SITES AND 10Z AT
KDRT. MVFR SHOULD LAST UNTIL 16Z AND THEN LIFT TO VFR CIGS. THE
I-35 SITES SHOULD HAVE SCT CLOUDS AFTER 20Z...BUT ALSO A PROB30 OF
TSRA FROM 20-24Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND BECOME 10G22KT
AT 16Z FOR KDRT...AND AFTER 20Z AT THE I-35 SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A DEEPER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING BY A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET. AS DOLLY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS...THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH DISSIPATION MOST AREAS BY SUNSET. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED
IN THE SOUTH AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCING
LIFT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NIGHTTIME RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. A SLIGHT
COOLING OF HIGHS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANT LOW OF DOLLY WILL DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...RETREATING TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. IN ADDITION...ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY BRIEFLY
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES AND THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ENDING THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...EXCEPT
A BRIEF DIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  98  76  98  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  96  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  95  75  95  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  96  74  96  74 /  20  30  10  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  96  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KSJT 022342
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

A few showers have made it into the northwest Hill Country, from
near Mason to San Saba. This activity will drift northwest at 15 mph
for the next 1-2 hours, dissipating around sunset. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms were added through 9 PM east of a Junction to
Brady line. Otherwise, changes were minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail over much of the next 24 hours, with
trends similar to the past day. Brady, Junction, and Sonora will see
some MVFR ceilings tomorrow mornings shortly before sunrise, burning
off by mid morning. Winds will again be gusty tomorrow afternoon out
of the southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Upper level ridging is in place across Texas this afternoon,
keeping the afternoon warm, but not as hot as yesterday. Mid to
upper 90s are common, with a few readings near 100 degrees.
Farther south, Tropical Storm Dolly continues to make slow
progress toward the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, and is
expected to move into Mexico over the next day before losing its
tropical storm designation. Closer to home, scattered showers have
developed along and southeast of the I-35 corridor this afternoon,
but are running into stronger subsidence from ridging in our area,
and aren`t likely to make it into west central Texas tonight, so
have kept the forecast dry tonight. Tomorrow, as Dolly`s influence
spreads a little farther north, we could see some of the showers
and thunderstorms make it into our southern counties, so have
brought a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas
roughly along and south of a line from San Saba, to Brady, to
Barnhart for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, models continue to
indicate a slight cooling for temperatures in the low levels
tomorrow, so have continued the trend for slightly cooler highs on
Wednesday. However, overnight lows will remain warm, with mainly
mid and upper 70s tonight.

20

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Saturday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas into early this weekend. Looks like the
moisture from the remnants of Dolly make it as far north along the
Rio Grande river valley and deep south Texas, still remaining south
of our area. However, and isolated shower or storm is not out of the
question along the I-10 corridor mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Will keep this part of the extended forecast
dry for now. Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels and
staying below 100 for highs.

/Saturday Night through next Tuesday/
Looks like the better chance for rain will be over the last part of
the weekend into Monday morning. The combination of a weak cool
front/thunderstorm outflow boundary moving south from Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas, will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of a San Angelo to San Saba line. The highest
rain chances will be north of the I-20 corridor. The early part of
next week will see dry conditions return to the area.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  74  95  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  74  95  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
Junction  75  93  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Reimer
Short term: Johnson





000
FXUS64 KSJT 022342
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

A few showers have made it into the northwest Hill Country, from
near Mason to San Saba. This activity will drift northwest at 15 mph
for the next 1-2 hours, dissipating around sunset. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms were added through 9 PM east of a Junction to
Brady line. Otherwise, changes were minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail over much of the next 24 hours, with
trends similar to the past day. Brady, Junction, and Sonora will see
some MVFR ceilings tomorrow mornings shortly before sunrise, burning
off by mid morning. Winds will again be gusty tomorrow afternoon out
of the southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Upper level ridging is in place across Texas this afternoon,
keeping the afternoon warm, but not as hot as yesterday. Mid to
upper 90s are common, with a few readings near 100 degrees.
Farther south, Tropical Storm Dolly continues to make slow
progress toward the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, and is
expected to move into Mexico over the next day before losing its
tropical storm designation. Closer to home, scattered showers have
developed along and southeast of the I-35 corridor this afternoon,
but are running into stronger subsidence from ridging in our area,
and aren`t likely to make it into west central Texas tonight, so
have kept the forecast dry tonight. Tomorrow, as Dolly`s influence
spreads a little farther north, we could see some of the showers
and thunderstorms make it into our southern counties, so have
brought a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas
roughly along and south of a line from San Saba, to Brady, to
Barnhart for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, models continue to
indicate a slight cooling for temperatures in the low levels
tomorrow, so have continued the trend for slightly cooler highs on
Wednesday. However, overnight lows will remain warm, with mainly
mid and upper 70s tonight.

20

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Saturday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas into early this weekend. Looks like the
moisture from the remnants of Dolly make it as far north along the
Rio Grande river valley and deep south Texas, still remaining south
of our area. However, and isolated shower or storm is not out of the
question along the I-10 corridor mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Will keep this part of the extended forecast
dry for now. Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels and
staying below 100 for highs.

/Saturday Night through next Tuesday/
Looks like the better chance for rain will be over the last part of
the weekend into Monday morning. The combination of a weak cool
front/thunderstorm outflow boundary moving south from Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas, will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of a San Angelo to San Saba line. The highest
rain chances will be north of the I-20 corridor. The early part of
next week will see dry conditions return to the area.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  74  95  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  74  95  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
Junction  75  93  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Reimer
Short term: Johnson





000
FXUS64 KSJT 022342
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

A few showers have made it into the northwest Hill Country, from
near Mason to San Saba. This activity will drift northwest at 15 mph
for the next 1-2 hours, dissipating around sunset. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms were added through 9 PM east of a Junction to
Brady line. Otherwise, changes were minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail over much of the next 24 hours, with
trends similar to the past day. Brady, Junction, and Sonora will see
some MVFR ceilings tomorrow mornings shortly before sunrise, burning
off by mid morning. Winds will again be gusty tomorrow afternoon out
of the southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Upper level ridging is in place across Texas this afternoon,
keeping the afternoon warm, but not as hot as yesterday. Mid to
upper 90s are common, with a few readings near 100 degrees.
Farther south, Tropical Storm Dolly continues to make slow
progress toward the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, and is
expected to move into Mexico over the next day before losing its
tropical storm designation. Closer to home, scattered showers have
developed along and southeast of the I-35 corridor this afternoon,
but are running into stronger subsidence from ridging in our area,
and aren`t likely to make it into west central Texas tonight, so
have kept the forecast dry tonight. Tomorrow, as Dolly`s influence
spreads a little farther north, we could see some of the showers
and thunderstorms make it into our southern counties, so have
brought a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas
roughly along and south of a line from San Saba, to Brady, to
Barnhart for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, models continue to
indicate a slight cooling for temperatures in the low levels
tomorrow, so have continued the trend for slightly cooler highs on
Wednesday. However, overnight lows will remain warm, with mainly
mid and upper 70s tonight.

20

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Saturday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas into early this weekend. Looks like the
moisture from the remnants of Dolly make it as far north along the
Rio Grande river valley and deep south Texas, still remaining south
of our area. However, and isolated shower or storm is not out of the
question along the I-10 corridor mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Will keep this part of the extended forecast
dry for now. Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels and
staying below 100 for highs.

/Saturday Night through next Tuesday/
Looks like the better chance for rain will be over the last part of
the weekend into Monday morning. The combination of a weak cool
front/thunderstorm outflow boundary moving south from Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas, will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of a San Angelo to San Saba line. The highest
rain chances will be north of the I-20 corridor. The early part of
next week will see dry conditions return to the area.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  74  95  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  74  95  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
Junction  75  93  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Reimer
Short term: Johnson





000
FXUS64 KSJT 022342
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...

A few showers have made it into the northwest Hill Country, from
near Mason to San Saba. This activity will drift northwest at 15 mph
for the next 1-2 hours, dissipating around sunset. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms were added through 9 PM east of a Junction to
Brady line. Otherwise, changes were minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail over much of the next 24 hours, with
trends similar to the past day. Brady, Junction, and Sonora will see
some MVFR ceilings tomorrow mornings shortly before sunrise, burning
off by mid morning. Winds will again be gusty tomorrow afternoon out
of the southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Upper level ridging is in place across Texas this afternoon,
keeping the afternoon warm, but not as hot as yesterday. Mid to
upper 90s are common, with a few readings near 100 degrees.
Farther south, Tropical Storm Dolly continues to make slow
progress toward the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, and is
expected to move into Mexico over the next day before losing its
tropical storm designation. Closer to home, scattered showers have
developed along and southeast of the I-35 corridor this afternoon,
but are running into stronger subsidence from ridging in our area,
and aren`t likely to make it into west central Texas tonight, so
have kept the forecast dry tonight. Tomorrow, as Dolly`s influence
spreads a little farther north, we could see some of the showers
and thunderstorms make it into our southern counties, so have
brought a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas
roughly along and south of a line from San Saba, to Brady, to
Barnhart for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, models continue to
indicate a slight cooling for temperatures in the low levels
tomorrow, so have continued the trend for slightly cooler highs on
Wednesday. However, overnight lows will remain warm, with mainly
mid and upper 70s tonight.

20

LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Saturday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas into early this weekend. Looks like the
moisture from the remnants of Dolly make it as far north along the
Rio Grande river valley and deep south Texas, still remaining south
of our area. However, and isolated shower or storm is not out of the
question along the I-10 corridor mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Will keep this part of the extended forecast
dry for now. Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels and
staying below 100 for highs.

/Saturday Night through next Tuesday/
Looks like the better chance for rain will be over the last part of
the weekend into Monday morning. The combination of a weak cool
front/thunderstorm outflow boundary moving south from Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas, will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of a San Angelo to San Saba line. The highest
rain chances will be north of the I-20 corridor. The early part of
next week will see dry conditions return to the area.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  74  95  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  74  95  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
Junction  75  93  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Reimer
Short term: Johnson





000
FXUS64 KMAF 022336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Isolated storms should not affect the terminals this evening.
Otherwise...winds will increase once again this evening as the PBL
collapses. These winds will decrease around 03/08Z, but expect MVFR
cigs to move into the KMAF and KHOB terminals shortly thereafter. These
clouds should burn off later in the morning with all terminals
returning to VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the
southern CONUS ridge centered over Texas, and in the process of
migrating further east to the Gulf Coast states in the next 24
hours.  As this is occurring, thicknesses are on the way down,
w/current temps a couple of degrees cooler than this time 24 hours
ago.  As the ridge keeps filling into the SE CONUS, temps should
drop to about a cat abv normal by Thursday, and stay there into next
week.  The ridge begins building back west Friday, but somewhat
weaker than now.  This morning`s NAM run seems to have finally come
out of its cold affectation, and matches up fairly well w/the GFS.
The ECMWF is more in line, as well, yet still a couple of degrees
cooler.  Considering models` performance the past few runs, the
warmer end of guidance is preferred.

As the ridge continues building east, easterlies to the south are
forecast to advect Gulf moisture up the Rio Grande Valley, and this
will increase chances of convection making it into the lwr Trans
Pecos over the next few days, especially if remnants of T.S. Dolly
are entrained into the flow.  Models also hint at isolated
convection from monsoonal mstr clipping SE NM in SW flow aloft
around the ridge later in the week.

Otherwise, the ECMWF and CMC continue to bring a cold front into the
CWA Saturday night, whereas the GFS and DGEX stalled/dissipate it
before it arrives.  Given the models` tendency to be a bit too
exuberant w/the first few fronts of late summer, we`re inclined to
side w/the GFS/DGEX, and keep things warmer/drier.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 022336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Isolated storms should not affect the terminals this evening.
Otherwise...winds will increase once again this evening as the PBL
collapses. These winds will decrease around 03/08Z, but expect MVFR
cigs to move into the KMAF and KHOB terminals shortly thereafter. These
clouds should burn off later in the morning with all terminals
returning to VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the
southern CONUS ridge centered over Texas, and in the process of
migrating further east to the Gulf Coast states in the next 24
hours.  As this is occurring, thicknesses are on the way down,
w/current temps a couple of degrees cooler than this time 24 hours
ago.  As the ridge keeps filling into the SE CONUS, temps should
drop to about a cat abv normal by Thursday, and stay there into next
week.  The ridge begins building back west Friday, but somewhat
weaker than now.  This morning`s NAM run seems to have finally come
out of its cold affectation, and matches up fairly well w/the GFS.
The ECMWF is more in line, as well, yet still a couple of degrees
cooler.  Considering models` performance the past few runs, the
warmer end of guidance is preferred.

As the ridge continues building east, easterlies to the south are
forecast to advect Gulf moisture up the Rio Grande Valley, and this
will increase chances of convection making it into the lwr Trans
Pecos over the next few days, especially if remnants of T.S. Dolly
are entrained into the flow.  Models also hint at isolated
convection from monsoonal mstr clipping SE NM in SW flow aloft
around the ridge later in the week.

Otherwise, the ECMWF and CMC continue to bring a cold front into the
CWA Saturday night, whereas the GFS and DGEX stalled/dissipate it
before it arrives.  Given the models` tendency to be a bit too
exuberant w/the first few fronts of late summer, we`re inclined to
side w/the GFS/DGEX, and keep things warmer/drier.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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Check us out on the internet at:
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000
FXUS64 KAMA 022335 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME JUST SOUTH OF KAMA
ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS AND CONVERGENCE ZONE.  WILL INCLUDE VCTS AND
TEMPO TSRA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KAMA.  COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KT WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO SOUTH AND
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY.  SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE AROUND 14Z OR 15Z WEDNESDAY.  CLEAR SKY EXPECTED MOST OF
THE DAY...WITH HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND KDHT AROUND 21Z
WEDNESDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

NO OVERWHELMING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES TO ABOUND LATER IN THE PERIOD.  ONE OF THE MAIN SOURCES OF
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE THE TROPICS AS TS DOLLY IN THE WRN GULF
AND TS NORBERT IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTE MOISTURE
TO THE PATTERN EVENTUALLY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE OVERALL
UPR AIR PATTERN EVOLUTION IN WAYS THAT WILL NOT BE WELL MODELED.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THE LIGHT
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WED AND THU WILL BE MUCH BREEZIER DAYS AS SSW
WINDS PICK UP.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE WRN OK PANHANDLE THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT SLIPPING IN AND ERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHRTWV.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
TRIED VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN A TIME PERIOD OR LOCATION WHERE PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST BUT WEAK FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE MEANS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. DO THINK
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER IN THIS
PERIOD. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONGEALING A BIT BETTER ON TEMPERATURES
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.

SIMPSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  94  68  92  67 /  10   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  71  99  73  96  68 /  10  10   5   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              66  95  67  92  62 /   5  10   5  10  30
BORGER TX                  72  97  71  96  70 /  10   5   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              69  96  69  94  69 /   5   5   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  68  93  67  92  66 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               70  94  69  94  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 66  96  66  93  64 /   5   5   5   5  20
GUYMON OK                  69  99  70  95  65 /  10  10   5   5  30
HEREFORD TX                67  93  65  91  65 /   5   5   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                72  96  72  95  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   70  94  69  93  68 /  10   5   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                72  94  71  94  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              74  95  73  96  71 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13





000
FXUS64 KAMA 022335 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME JUST SOUTH OF KAMA
ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS AND CONVERGENCE ZONE.  WILL INCLUDE VCTS AND
TEMPO TSRA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KAMA.  COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KT WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO SOUTH AND
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY.  SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE AROUND 14Z OR 15Z WEDNESDAY.  CLEAR SKY EXPECTED MOST OF
THE DAY...WITH HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND KDHT AROUND 21Z
WEDNESDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

NO OVERWHELMING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES TO ABOUND LATER IN THE PERIOD.  ONE OF THE MAIN SOURCES OF
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE THE TROPICS AS TS DOLLY IN THE WRN GULF
AND TS NORBERT IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTE MOISTURE
TO THE PATTERN EVENTUALLY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE OVERALL
UPR AIR PATTERN EVOLUTION IN WAYS THAT WILL NOT BE WELL MODELED.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THE LIGHT
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WED AND THU WILL BE MUCH BREEZIER DAYS AS SSW
WINDS PICK UP.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE WRN OK PANHANDLE THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT SLIPPING IN AND ERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHRTWV.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
TRIED VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN A TIME PERIOD OR LOCATION WHERE PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST BUT WEAK FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE MEANS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. DO THINK
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER IN THIS
PERIOD. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONGEALING A BIT BETTER ON TEMPERATURES
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.

SIMPSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  94  68  92  67 /  10   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  71  99  73  96  68 /  10  10   5   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              66  95  67  92  62 /   5  10   5  10  30
BORGER TX                  72  97  71  96  70 /  10   5   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              69  96  69  94  69 /   5   5   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  68  93  67  92  66 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               70  94  69  94  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 66  96  66  93  64 /   5   5   5   5  20
GUYMON OK                  69  99  70  95  65 /  10  10   5   5  30
HEREFORD TX                67  93  65  91  65 /   5   5   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                72  96  72  95  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   70  94  69  93  68 /  10   5   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                72  94  71  94  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              74  95  73  96  71 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13






000
FXUS64 KHGX 022334
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
634 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE. MIGHT GET SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER THE SUN RISES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WITH PRETTY GOOD
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH SO THINK SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN TODAY. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23



000
FXUS64 KHGX 022334
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
634 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ISSUANCE. MIGHT GET SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THEY SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER THE SUN RISES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW LOWER MOISTURE VALUES WITH PRETTY GOOD
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUNDINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THOUGH SO THINK SLIGHTLY LESS
COVERAGE TOMORROW THAN TODAY. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KFWD 022302
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ARE QUICKLY WANING THIS EVENING DUE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID & UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD. WE
HAVE BEEN KEEPING OUR EYE ON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE DFW TRACON FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THIS TOO WILL BE ELIMINATED BY THE RIDGE. THE BOUNDARY WAS
GENERATED BY A THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEX NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND HAD BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH AREA. THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FEATURE HAS SLOWED AND
WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE WASHING OUT NORTHEAST OF ALL TAF LOCALES.
AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY
SO A RETURN OF MVFR IS LIKELY FOR WACO AND THE DALLAS AREA
AIRPORTS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT BY MID
DAY AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ...MAINLY NEAR KACT...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY FOR TS REMAINS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE WACO FORECAST.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AT MIDDAY WHICH MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE
CWA BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD TO 10 POPS FROM
GAINESVILLE TO CANTON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BY/AROUND SUNSET.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LITTLE ELSE.

COME THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
BOUNDARY FROM NEW MEXICO TO WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD AS PRECIPITATION
COOLED AIR REINFORCES FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCES THE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH EACH DAY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...THUS POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. RIGHT NOW
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SHEAR WILL BE
LOW AND LAPSE RATES NEAR MOISTURE ADIABATIC.

DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.    75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  96  78  96  77 /  10   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              77  97  75  97  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  93  74  93  73 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            76  95  75  95  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  94  75  94  74 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  96  78  96  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  96  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         78  96  75  96  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  97  74 /  20  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  96  74  95  73 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 022302
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ARE QUICKLY WANING THIS EVENING DUE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID & UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD. WE
HAVE BEEN KEEPING OUR EYE ON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE DFW TRACON FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THIS TOO WILL BE ELIMINATED BY THE RIDGE. THE BOUNDARY WAS
GENERATED BY A THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEX NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND HAD BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH AREA. THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FEATURE HAS SLOWED AND
WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE WASHING OUT NORTHEAST OF ALL TAF LOCALES.
AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY
SO A RETURN OF MVFR IS LIKELY FOR WACO AND THE DALLAS AREA
AIRPORTS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT BY MID
DAY AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ...MAINLY NEAR KACT...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY FOR TS REMAINS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE WACO FORECAST.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AT MIDDAY WHICH MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE
CWA BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD TO 10 POPS FROM
GAINESVILLE TO CANTON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BY/AROUND SUNSET.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LITTLE ELSE.

COME THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
BOUNDARY FROM NEW MEXICO TO WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD AS PRECIPITATION
COOLED AIR REINFORCES FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCES THE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH EACH DAY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...THUS POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. RIGHT NOW
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SHEAR WILL BE
LOW AND LAPSE RATES NEAR MOISTURE ADIABATIC.

DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.    75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  96  78  96  77 /  10   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              77  97  75  97  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  93  74  93  73 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            76  95  75  95  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  94  75  94  74 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  96  78  96  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  96  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         78  96  75  96  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  97  74 /  20  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  96  74  95  73 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLUB 022231
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
531 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS BEST-GUESS...BUT GIVE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS SOME CREDIT. WE HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW COVERAGE THUNDER
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. 1500-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM OF
CONVECTIVE ENERGY BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR CONTRIBUTING TO BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND BRIEF MOSTLY WEAK HAIL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAKE ON BETTER NORTHERLY DRIFT...THOUGH BELIEVE
MOST ACTIVITY WILL RELENT BY DARK. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  20   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  20   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /  20   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       72  93  68  92  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /  20   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99






000
FXUS64 KLUB 022231
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
531 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS BEST-GUESS...BUT GIVE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS SOME CREDIT. WE HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW COVERAGE THUNDER
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. 1500-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM OF
CONVECTIVE ENERGY BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR CONTRIBUTING TO BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND BRIEF MOSTLY WEAK HAIL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAKE ON BETTER NORTHERLY DRIFT...THOUGH BELIEVE
MOST ACTIVITY WILL RELENT BY DARK. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  20   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  20   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /  20   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       72  93  68  92  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /  20   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99






000
FXUS64 KLUB 022231
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
531 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS BEST-GUESS...BUT GIVE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS SOME CREDIT. WE HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW COVERAGE THUNDER
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. 1500-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM OF
CONVECTIVE ENERGY BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR CONTRIBUTING TO BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND BRIEF MOSTLY WEAK HAIL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAKE ON BETTER NORTHERLY DRIFT...THOUGH BELIEVE
MOST ACTIVITY WILL RELENT BY DARK. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  20   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  20   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /  20   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       72  93  68  92  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /  20   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99






000
FXUS64 KLUB 022231
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
531 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS BEST-GUESS...BUT GIVE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS SOME CREDIT. WE HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW COVERAGE THUNDER
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. 1500-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM OF
CONVECTIVE ENERGY BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR CONTRIBUTING TO BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND BRIEF MOSTLY WEAK HAIL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAKE ON BETTER NORTHERLY DRIFT...THOUGH BELIEVE
MOST ACTIVITY WILL RELENT BY DARK. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  20   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  20   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /  20   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       72  93  68  92  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /  20   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99






000
FXUS64 KHGX 022116
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 022116
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR WATER RUN-UP ALONG
HIGHWAY 87 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
WEAKENING BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL OCCASIONALLY
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER
FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KAMA 022049
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

NO OVERWHELMING CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES TO ABOUND LATER IN THE PERIOD.  ONE OF THE MAIN SOURCES OF
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE THE TROPICS AS TS DOLLY IN THE WRN GULF
AND TS NORBERT IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CERTAINLY CONTRIBUTE MOISTURE
TO THE PATTERN EVENTUALLY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE OVERALL
UPR AIR PATTERN EVOLUTION IN WAYS THAT WILL NOT BE WELL MODELED.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THE LIGHT
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WED AND THU WILL BE MUCH BREEZIER DAYS AS SSW
WINDS PICK UP.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN THE WRN OK PANHANDLE THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT SLIPPING IN AND ERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHRTWV.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
TRIED VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN A TIME PERIOD OR LOCATION WHERE PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST BUT WEAK FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP
MOISTURE MEANS CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. DO THINK
MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER IN THIS
PERIOD. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONGEALING A BIT BETTER ON TEMPERATURES
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  94  68  92  67 /  10   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  71  99  73  96  68 /  10  10   5   5  20
BOISE CITY OK              66  95  67  92  62 /   5  10   5  10  30
BORGER TX                  72  97  71  96  70 /  10   5   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              69  96  69  94  69 /   5   5   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  68  93  67  92  66 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               70  94  69  94  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 66  96  66  93  64 /   5   5   5   5  20
GUYMON OK                  69  99  70  95  65 /  10  10   5   5  30
HEREFORD TX                67  93  65  91  65 /   5   5   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                72  96  72  95  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
PAMPA TX                   70  94  69  93  68 /  10   5   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                72  94  71  94  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              74  95  73  96  71 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/09





000
FXUS64 KSJT 022043
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
342 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Upper level ridging is in place across Texas this afternoon,
keeping the afternoon warm, but not as hot as yesterday. Mid to
upper 90s are common, with a few readings near 100 degrees.
Farther south, Tropical Storm Dolly continues to make slow
progress toward the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, and is
expected to move into Mexico over the next day before losing its
tropical storm designation. Closer to home, scattered showers have
developed along and southeast of the I-35 corridor this afternoon,
but are running into stronger subsidence from ridging in our area,
and aren`t likely to make it into west central Texas tonight, so
have kept the forecast dry tonight. Tomorrow, as Dolly`s influence
spreads a little farther north, we could see some of the showers
and thunderstorms make it into our southern counties, so have
brought a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas
roughly along and south of a line from San Saba, to Brady, to
Barnhart for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, models continue to
indicate a slight cooling for temperatures in the low levels
tomorrow, so have continued the trend for slightly cooler highs on
Wednesday. However, overnight lows will remain warm, with mainly
mid and upper 70s tonight.

20

.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Saturday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas into early this weekend. Looks like the
moisture from the remnants of Dolly make it as far north along the
Rio Grande river valley and deep south Texas, still remaining south
of our area. However, and isolated shower or storm is not out of the
question along the I-10 corridor mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Will keep this part of the extended forecast
dry for now. Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels and
staying below 100 for highs.

/Saturday Night through next Tuesday/
Looks like the better chance for rain will be over the last part of
the weekend into Monday morning. The combination of a weak cool
front/thunderstorm outflow boundary moving south from Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas, will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of a San Angelo to San Saba line. The highest
rain chances will be north of the I-20 corridor. The early part of
next week will see dry conditions return to the area.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  74  95  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  74  95  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
Junction  75  93  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 022043
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
342 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Upper level ridging is in place across Texas this afternoon,
keeping the afternoon warm, but not as hot as yesterday. Mid to
upper 90s are common, with a few readings near 100 degrees.
Farther south, Tropical Storm Dolly continues to make slow
progress toward the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, and is
expected to move into Mexico over the next day before losing its
tropical storm designation. Closer to home, scattered showers have
developed along and southeast of the I-35 corridor this afternoon,
but are running into stronger subsidence from ridging in our area,
and aren`t likely to make it into west central Texas tonight, so
have kept the forecast dry tonight. Tomorrow, as Dolly`s influence
spreads a little farther north, we could see some of the showers
and thunderstorms make it into our southern counties, so have
brought a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas
roughly along and south of a line from San Saba, to Brady, to
Barnhart for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, models continue to
indicate a slight cooling for temperatures in the low levels
tomorrow, so have continued the trend for slightly cooler highs on
Wednesday. However, overnight lows will remain warm, with mainly
mid and upper 70s tonight.

20

.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Saturday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas into early this weekend. Looks like the
moisture from the remnants of Dolly make it as far north along the
Rio Grande river valley and deep south Texas, still remaining south
of our area. However, and isolated shower or storm is not out of the
question along the I-10 corridor mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Will keep this part of the extended forecast
dry for now. Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels and
staying below 100 for highs.

/Saturday Night through next Tuesday/
Looks like the better chance for rain will be over the last part of
the weekend into Monday morning. The combination of a weak cool
front/thunderstorm outflow boundary moving south from Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas, will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of a San Angelo to San Saba line. The highest
rain chances will be north of the I-20 corridor. The early part of
next week will see dry conditions return to the area.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  74  95  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  74  95  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
Junction  75  93  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 022043
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
342 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Upper level ridging is in place across Texas this afternoon,
keeping the afternoon warm, but not as hot as yesterday. Mid to
upper 90s are common, with a few readings near 100 degrees.
Farther south, Tropical Storm Dolly continues to make slow
progress toward the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, and is
expected to move into Mexico over the next day before losing its
tropical storm designation. Closer to home, scattered showers have
developed along and southeast of the I-35 corridor this afternoon,
but are running into stronger subsidence from ridging in our area,
and aren`t likely to make it into west central Texas tonight, so
have kept the forecast dry tonight. Tomorrow, as Dolly`s influence
spreads a little farther north, we could see some of the showers
and thunderstorms make it into our southern counties, so have
brought a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas
roughly along and south of a line from San Saba, to Brady, to
Barnhart for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, models continue to
indicate a slight cooling for temperatures in the low levels
tomorrow, so have continued the trend for slightly cooler highs on
Wednesday. However, overnight lows will remain warm, with mainly
mid and upper 70s tonight.

20

.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Saturday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas into early this weekend. Looks like the
moisture from the remnants of Dolly make it as far north along the
Rio Grande river valley and deep south Texas, still remaining south
of our area. However, and isolated shower or storm is not out of the
question along the I-10 corridor mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Will keep this part of the extended forecast
dry for now. Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels and
staying below 100 for highs.

/Saturday Night through next Tuesday/
Looks like the better chance for rain will be over the last part of
the weekend into Monday morning. The combination of a weak cool
front/thunderstorm outflow boundary moving south from Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas, will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of a San Angelo to San Saba line. The highest
rain chances will be north of the I-20 corridor. The early part of
next week will see dry conditions return to the area.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  74  95  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  74  95  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
Junction  75  93  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 022043
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
342 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Upper level ridging is in place across Texas this afternoon,
keeping the afternoon warm, but not as hot as yesterday. Mid to
upper 90s are common, with a few readings near 100 degrees.
Farther south, Tropical Storm Dolly continues to make slow
progress toward the Mexican coast south of Brownsville, and is
expected to move into Mexico over the next day before losing its
tropical storm designation. Closer to home, scattered showers have
developed along and southeast of the I-35 corridor this afternoon,
but are running into stronger subsidence from ridging in our area,
and aren`t likely to make it into west central Texas tonight, so
have kept the forecast dry tonight. Tomorrow, as Dolly`s influence
spreads a little farther north, we could see some of the showers
and thunderstorms make it into our southern counties, so have
brought a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas
roughly along and south of a line from San Saba, to Brady, to
Barnhart for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, models continue to
indicate a slight cooling for temperatures in the low levels
tomorrow, so have continued the trend for slightly cooler highs on
Wednesday. However, overnight lows will remain warm, with mainly
mid and upper 70s tonight.

20

.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night through Saturday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas into early this weekend. Looks like the
moisture from the remnants of Dolly make it as far north along the
Rio Grande river valley and deep south Texas, still remaining south
of our area. However, and isolated shower or storm is not out of the
question along the I-10 corridor mainly during the afternoon and
early evening hours. Will keep this part of the extended forecast
dry for now. Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels and
staying below 100 for highs.

/Saturday Night through next Tuesday/
Looks like the better chance for rain will be over the last part of
the weekend into Monday morning. The combination of a weak cool
front/thunderstorm outflow boundary moving south from Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas, will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of a San Angelo to San Saba line. The highest
rain chances will be north of the I-20 corridor. The early part of
next week will see dry conditions return to the area.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  74  95  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  74  95  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
Junction  75  93  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KEWX 022026
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
326 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A DEEPER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING BY A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET. AS DOLLY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS...THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH DISSIPATION MOST AREAS BY SUNSET. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED
IN THE SOUTH AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCING
LIFT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NIGHTTIME RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. A SLIGHT
COOLING OF HIGHS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANT LOW OF DOLLY WILL DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...RETREATING TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. IN ADDITION...ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY BRIEFLY
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES AND THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ENDING THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...EXCEPT
A BRIEF DIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  98  76  98  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  96  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  95  75  95  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  96  74  96  74 /  20  30  10  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  96  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 022026
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
326 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
THIS EVENING. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED A DEEPER MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING BY A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET. AS DOLLY MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND WEAKENS...THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE MORNING NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH DISSIPATION MOST AREAS BY SUNSET. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED
IN THE SOUTH AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DUE TO PWS
NEAR 2 INCHES. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCING
LIFT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NIGHTTIME RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. A SLIGHT
COOLING OF HIGHS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REMNANT LOW OF DOLLY WILL DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...RETREATING TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER OUR AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. IN ADDITION...ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY BRIEFLY
MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BY TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES AND THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT ENDING THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...EXCEPT
A BRIEF DIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  98  76  98  77 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  96  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  95  75  95  76 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  96  74  96  74 /  20  30  10  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  76  97  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       78  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  96  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KCRP 022023
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
323 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS THE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. AS THE TRACK OF T.S.
DOLLY CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL SOUTH OF THE
BORDER THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIT
MORE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF DOLLY STRETCHING INTO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED
POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA...WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS
AS THE WEAKENED SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE LOWERED
CHANCES...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING
CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS LOWERED SOME WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
MOISTURE FIELD IS APPEARING TO BE A LITTLE MORE LIMITED THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. GUIDANCE SUITES CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH HANDLING
OF REMNANTS OF TROP STORM DOLLY WITH GFS TAKING REMNANT VORTICITY
WESTWARD INTO MX WHILE ECMWF/CMC INCREASE DPVA ACROSS NORTHERN
COAHUILA MX AND S TX. THUS...GFS IS DRIER THAN ECMWF/CMC. GIVEN
CURRENT TRACK OF DOLLY...GFS HANDLING OF REMNANTS MAY BE PANNING
OUT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT FOR AT LEAST DAILY CHANCES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ENOUGH DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND STRENGTHENING OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AID IN REDUCTION OF POPS. ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A WEAK FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
HAVE WARMED MAX TEMPS FOR MOST DAYTIME PERIODS GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS AND STRENGTHENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND THEN FALL TO SEASONABLY LEVELS AS ATMOSPHERE
DRIES.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASED SWELLS
FROM T.S. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM PORT ARANSAS SOUTH
TO PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
OVERNIGHT DURING HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...INCREASED SEAS AND A
TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  78  92  77  /  30  40  30  40  20
VICTORIA          77  95  77  96  76  /  20  30  20  30  10
LAREDO            80  95  78  98  79  /  20  50  40  40  30
ALICE             76  93  77  96  75  /  20  40  30  40  20
ROCKPORT          81  92  80  90  80  /  30  40  30  40  20
COTULLA           77  95  76  97  76  /  20  40  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        79  92  78  96  77  /  30  50  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  89  80  91  80  /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 022023
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
323 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS THE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. AS THE TRACK OF T.S.
DOLLY CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL SOUTH OF THE
BORDER THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIT
MORE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF DOLLY STRETCHING INTO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED
POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA...WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS
AS THE WEAKENED SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE LOWERED
CHANCES...HAVE INCREASED TEMPS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING
CHANCES OF PRECIP HAS LOWERED SOME WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS
MOISTURE FIELD IS APPEARING TO BE A LITTLE MORE LIMITED THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. GUIDANCE SUITES CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH HANDLING
OF REMNANTS OF TROP STORM DOLLY WITH GFS TAKING REMNANT VORTICITY
WESTWARD INTO MX WHILE ECMWF/CMC INCREASE DPVA ACROSS NORTHERN
COAHUILA MX AND S TX. THUS...GFS IS DRIER THAN ECMWF/CMC. GIVEN
CURRENT TRACK OF DOLLY...GFS HANDLING OF REMNANTS MAY BE PANNING
OUT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT FOR AT LEAST DAILY CHANCES OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ENOUGH DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND STRENGTHENING OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD AID IN REDUCTION OF POPS. ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A WEAK FRONT SHOULD STALL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
HAVE WARMED MAX TEMPS FOR MOST DAYTIME PERIODS GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS AND STRENGTHENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. MIN TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND THEN FALL TO SEASONABLY LEVELS AS ATMOSPHERE
DRIES.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASED SWELLS
FROM T.S. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM PORT ARANSAS SOUTH
TO PADRE ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW
OVERNIGHT DURING HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION...INCREASED SEAS AND A
TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  78  92  77  /  30  40  30  40  20
VICTORIA          77  95  77  96  76  /  20  30  20  30  10
LAREDO            80  95  78  98  79  /  20  50  40  40  30
ALICE             76  93  77  96  75  /  20  40  30  40  20
ROCKPORT          81  92  80  90  80  /  30  40  30  40  20
COTULLA           77  95  76  97  76  /  20  40  30  40  20
KINGSVILLE        79  92  78  96  77  /  30  50  30  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  89  80  91  80  /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KLUB 022006
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  10   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /   0   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       71  93  68  92  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /   0   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/16





000
FXUS64 KLUB 022006
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  10   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /   0   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       71  93  68  92  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /   0   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/16






000
FXUS64 KFWD 022001
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
301 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AT MIDDAY WHICH MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE
CWA BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD TO 10 POPS FROM
GAINESVILLE TO CANTON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BY/AROUND SUNSET.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LITTLE ELSE.

COME THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
BOUNDARY FROM NEW MEXICO TO WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD AS PRECIPITATION
COOLED AIR REINFORCES FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCES THE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH EACH DAY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...THUS POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. RIGHT NOW
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SHEAR WILL BE
LOW AND LAPSE RATES NEAR MOISTURE ADIABATIC.

DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.    75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
TAF FORECAST IS ONE OF PERSISTENCE AS VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IMPACTS KDAL/KACT
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 11-16Z. KDFW/KGKY ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT ON THE
EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK AND WILL SHOW ONLY A TEMPO FROM 13-15Z
DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT
10-15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX...AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KACT THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE JUST
SHOWERS AND TOO FAR REMOVED FROM METROPLEX SITES FOR ANY MENTION
OF VCSH. LIKEWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SHOWERS NEAR WACO...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  96  78  96  77 /  10   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              77  97  75  97  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  93  74  93  73 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            76  95  75  95  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  94  75  94  74 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  96  78  96  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  96  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         78  96  75  96  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  97  74 /  20  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  96  74  95  73 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75






000
FXUS64 KFWD 022001
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
301 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AT MIDDAY WHICH MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE
CWA BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD TO 10 POPS FROM
GAINESVILLE TO CANTON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BY/AROUND SUNSET.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LITTLE ELSE.

COME THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
BOUNDARY FROM NEW MEXICO TO WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD AS PRECIPITATION
COOLED AIR REINFORCES FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCES THE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH EACH DAY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...THUS POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. RIGHT NOW
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SHEAR WILL BE
LOW AND LAPSE RATES NEAR MOISTURE ADIABATIC.

DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.    75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
TAF FORECAST IS ONE OF PERSISTENCE AS VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IMPACTS KDAL/KACT
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 11-16Z. KDFW/KGKY ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT ON THE
EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK AND WILL SHOW ONLY A TEMPO FROM 13-15Z
DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT
10-15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX...AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KACT THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE JUST
SHOWERS AND TOO FAR REMOVED FROM METROPLEX SITES FOR ANY MENTION
OF VCSH. LIKEWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SHOWERS NEAR WACO...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  96  78  96  77 /  10   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              77  97  75  97  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  93  74  93  73 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            76  95  75  95  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  94  75  94  74 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  96  78  96  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  96  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         78  96  75  96  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  97  74 /  20  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  96  74  95  73 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75






000
FXUS64 KFWD 022001
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
301 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AT MIDDAY WHICH MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE
CWA BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD TO 10 POPS FROM
GAINESVILLE TO CANTON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BY/AROUND SUNSET.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LITTLE ELSE.

COME THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
BOUNDARY FROM NEW MEXICO TO WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD AS PRECIPITATION
COOLED AIR REINFORCES FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCES THE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH EACH DAY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...THUS POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. RIGHT NOW
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SHEAR WILL BE
LOW AND LAPSE RATES NEAR MOISTURE ADIABATIC.

DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.    75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
TAF FORECAST IS ONE OF PERSISTENCE AS VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IMPACTS KDAL/KACT
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 11-16Z. KDFW/KGKY ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT ON THE
EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK AND WILL SHOW ONLY A TEMPO FROM 13-15Z
DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT
10-15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX...AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KACT THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE JUST
SHOWERS AND TOO FAR REMOVED FROM METROPLEX SITES FOR ANY MENTION
OF VCSH. LIKEWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SHOWERS NEAR WACO...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  96  78  96  77 /  10   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              77  97  75  97  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  93  74  93  73 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            76  95  75  95  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  94  75  94  74 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  96  78  96  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  96  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         78  96  75  96  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  97  74 /  20  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  96  74  95  73 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75






000
FXUS64 KFWD 022001
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
301 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AT MIDDAY WHICH MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE
CWA BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD TO 10 POPS FROM
GAINESVILLE TO CANTON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BY/AROUND SUNSET.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LITTLE ELSE.

COME THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
BOUNDARY FROM NEW MEXICO TO WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD AS PRECIPITATION
COOLED AIR REINFORCES FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCES THE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH EACH DAY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...THUS POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. RIGHT NOW
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SHEAR WILL BE
LOW AND LAPSE RATES NEAR MOISTURE ADIABATIC.

DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.    75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
TAF FORECAST IS ONE OF PERSISTENCE AS VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IMPACTS KDAL/KACT
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 11-16Z. KDFW/KGKY ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT ON THE
EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK AND WILL SHOW ONLY A TEMPO FROM 13-15Z
DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT
10-15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX...AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KACT THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE JUST
SHOWERS AND TOO FAR REMOVED FROM METROPLEX SITES FOR ANY MENTION
OF VCSH. LIKEWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SHOWERS NEAR WACO...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  96  78  96  77 /  10   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              77  97  75  97  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  93  74  93  73 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            76  95  75  95  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  94  75  94  74 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  96  78  96  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  96  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         78  96  75  96  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  97  74 /  20  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  96  74  95  73 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 022000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
THEN PUSH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE BORDERLAND THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS NOW COMING INTO RESPECTABLE AGREEMENT ON EVOLVING AND
POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER SCENARIO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS
SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTLOOK ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTIES
STILL EXIST GIVEN THE TIME SCALES.

THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING VERY DRY WITH A .5 INCH INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLUS WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT. THIS REFLECTS THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE SUSTAINING HOT MOSTLY WEATHER
OVER THE CWA.

REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY COMPLEX AND
CHALLENGING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURES POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE OUTCOME. FIRST THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DRIFTS VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE WEST COAST. IN ADDITION REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM DOLLY WILL MEANDER INTO NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO
WHILE A PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORBERT DRIFTS SLOWLY AROUND
SOUTHERN BAJA. INITIALLY THE PATTERN OF RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL GENERATE LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
WHICH WILL ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL INCLUDE
SOME OF THE MOISTURE ATTENDANT WITH ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL
SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH. THUS PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES BY LATER THURSDAY AND REMAIN AROUND THESE
LEVELS INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY.

YET WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ON AN
EAST TO WEST AXIS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ALOFT AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
LIMITING INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION. VERY WEAK
DISSIPATING FRONT MAY ALSO ENTER THE CWA ON SATURDAY BUT
ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOKS TO BE SHALLOW AND RATHER FEEBLE. THUS
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATEST WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. STORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z - 04/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW120 THRU PD. WINDS W TO NW UP TO 10KTS THRU
12Z...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE S TO SE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS. THIS
RIDGE WILL START TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE COMING DAYS
AND BRING IN SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BUT THE LATEST MODELS HAVE WESTERN EXTENSION OF RIDGE KEEPING BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER ARIZONA FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO COME THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  98  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0  20
SIERRA BLANCA           70  95  70  89  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              67  97  68  93  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
ALAMOGORDO              66  96  70  94  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              50  74  51  70  50 /   0  20  10  20  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   66  94  67  92  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
SILVER CITY             61  92  61  87  61 /   0   0   0  20  30
DEMING                  63  97  67  94  63 /   0   0   0  10  20
LORDSBURG               63  96  66  95  63 /   0   0   0  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  98  71  95  72 /   0   0   0   0  20
DELL CITY               70  98  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
FORT HANCOCK            74  97  74  92  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
LOMA LINDA              70  93  67  87  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
FABENS                  71  96  72  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
SANTA TERESA            70  97  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  95  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0  20
JORNADA RANGE           63  96  66  92  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
HATCH                   65  97  67  92  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
COLUMBUS                67  95  68  92  67 /   0   0   0  10  20
OROGRANDE               69  96  71  93  69 /   0   0   0   0  20
MAYHILL                 56  83  57  78  56 /   0  10  10  20  30
MESCALERO               56  84  55  81  56 /   0  10  10  20  30
TIMBERON                54  84  57  80  54 /   0  10  10  20  30
WINSTON                 58  86  55  82  58 /   0   0   0  20  30
HILLSBORO               63  92  62  86  63 /   0   0   0  20  20
SPACEPORT               66  95  67  90  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            56  89  55  85  56 /   0   0   0  20  30
HURLEY                  61  94  62  90  61 /   0   0   0  20  30
CLIFF                   58  92  55  92  58 /   0   0   0  20  30
MULE CREEK              52  90  52  90  52 /   0   0   0  30  30
FAYWOOD                 62  92  62  86  62 /   0   0   0  20  20
ANIMAS                  67  95  67  93  67 /   0   0   0  20  30
HACHITA                 62  96  66  93  62 /   0   0   0  10  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  94  65  93  61 /   0   0   0  20  30
CLOVERDALE              63  93  63  91  63 /   0   0   0  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 022000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
THEN PUSH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AS A
RESULT THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE BORDERLAND THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS NOW COMING INTO RESPECTABLE AGREEMENT ON EVOLVING AND
POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER SCENARIO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS
SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTLOOK ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTIES
STILL EXIST GIVEN THE TIME SCALES.

THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING VERY DRY WITH A .5 INCH INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER PLUS WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT. THIS REFLECTS THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE
RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE SUSTAINING HOT MOSTLY WEATHER
OVER THE CWA.

REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY COMPLEX AND
CHALLENGING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURES POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE OUTCOME. FIRST THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH DRIFTS VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE WEST COAST. IN ADDITION REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM DOLLY WILL MEANDER INTO NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO
WHILE A PACIFIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORBERT DRIFTS SLOWLY AROUND
SOUTHERN BAJA. INITIALLY THE PATTERN OF RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL GENERATE LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
WHICH WILL ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL INCLUDE
SOME OF THE MOISTURE ATTENDANT WITH ABOVE MENTIONED TROPICAL
SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH. THUS PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES BY LATER THURSDAY AND REMAIN AROUND THESE
LEVELS INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY.

YET WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ON AN
EAST TO WEST AXIS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ALOFT AND WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
LIMITING INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION. VERY WEAK
DISSIPATING FRONT MAY ALSO ENTER THE CWA ON SATURDAY BUT
ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOKS TO BE SHALLOW AND RATHER FEEBLE. THUS
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATEST WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. STORM COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z - 04/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW120 THRU PD. WINDS W TO NW UP TO 10KTS THRU
12Z...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE S TO SE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS. THIS
RIDGE WILL START TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE COMING DAYS
AND BRING IN SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BUT THE LATEST MODELS HAVE WESTERN EXTENSION OF RIDGE KEEPING BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER ARIZONA FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO COME THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  98  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0  20
SIERRA BLANCA           70  95  70  89  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              67  97  68  93  67 /   0   0   0   0  20
ALAMOGORDO              66  96  70  94  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              50  74  51  70  50 /   0  20  10  20  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   66  94  67  92  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
SILVER CITY             61  92  61  87  61 /   0   0   0  20  30
DEMING                  63  97  67  94  63 /   0   0   0  10  20
LORDSBURG               63  96  66  95  63 /   0   0   0  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  98  71  95  72 /   0   0   0   0  20
DELL CITY               70  98  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
FORT HANCOCK            74  97  74  92  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
LOMA LINDA              70  93  67  87  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
FABENS                  71  96  72  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
SANTA TERESA            70  97  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  95  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0  20
JORNADA RANGE           63  96  66  92  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
HATCH                   65  97  67  92  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
COLUMBUS                67  95  68  92  67 /   0   0   0  10  20
OROGRANDE               69  96  71  93  69 /   0   0   0   0  20
MAYHILL                 56  83  57  78  56 /   0  10  10  20  30
MESCALERO               56  84  55  81  56 /   0  10  10  20  30
TIMBERON                54  84  57  80  54 /   0  10  10  20  30
WINSTON                 58  86  55  82  58 /   0   0   0  20  30
HILLSBORO               63  92  62  86  63 /   0   0   0  20  20
SPACEPORT               66  95  67  90  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            56  89  55  85  56 /   0   0   0  20  30
HURLEY                  61  94  62  90  61 /   0   0   0  20  30
CLIFF                   58  92  55  92  58 /   0   0   0  20  30
MULE CREEK              52  90  52  90  52 /   0   0   0  30  30
FAYWOOD                 62  92  62  86  62 /   0   0   0  20  20
ANIMAS                  67  95  67  93  67 /   0   0   0  20  30
HACHITA                 62  96  66  93  62 /   0   0   0  10  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  94  65  93  61 /   0   0   0  20  30
CLOVERDALE              63  93  63  91  63 /   0   0   0  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KHGX 021959
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL REMAIN AT...OR
SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WEAKENING
BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL
OCCASIONALLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 021959
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL REMAIN AT...OR
SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WEAKENING
BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL
OCCASIONALLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 021959
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL REMAIN AT...OR
SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WEAKENING
BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL
OCCASIONALLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 021959
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. TS DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND ONLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TIDES. A FLATTISH
500 MB RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST LATER THIS
WEEK AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8 AND 1.9 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE...500 HEIGHTS NEVER REALLY
INCREASE MUCH WITH VALUES AROUND 590 DM. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO
REMAIN BETWEEN 88 AND 90 DEGREES WHICH IS REACHABLE. THERE REALLY
ISN`T A TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BUT YOU CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL SHRA EITHER SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS THROUGH THE
FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY...PW VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES AND BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SE TX. LL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COUPLED WITH THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SUNDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
CONDUCIVE FOR A FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO SE TX BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT THE FRONT ENTERING SE TX FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT.  43

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON SATELLITE...SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPEARS TO BE
COMING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY...IF ANY...WILL
ALSO BE SHORT-LIVED AND IN THE FORM OF A HIGHER PERIOD SWELL ACROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WESTERN WATERS. A BRIEF TIME FRAME BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OF GREATER THAN 6 FOOT SEAS...A
SHORT FUSE SCA WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO COMMUNICATE THIS
ELEVATED SEA THREAT. OVERALL SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL REMAIN AT...OR
SLIGHTLY UNDER...20 KNOTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WEAKENING
BACK TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING UNDERNEATH SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGING WILL
OCCASIONALLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR RETURN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  77  93  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  82  91  82 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBRO 021944
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DOLLY IS HEADED
TOWARD LANDFALL THIS EVENING AROUND 125 MILES SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN AMOUNTS.
MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO WED. CONVERGENT
BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER IT MOVES INLAND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT FOR RAIN LOCALLY... WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE PEAK. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.16 INCHES WITH DEEP EAST FLOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO TWO AND A QUARTER INCHES ON WED...COURTESY
OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. RAIN AMOUNTS COULD RANGE BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IMPACTS WILL BE INCLUDE MAINLY
NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER COULD ACCUMULATE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ANY BREAKS IN THE SKY ALLOWING
FOR A PEAK AT THE SUN WEDNESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY BEING DEFLECTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST. INCREASING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED MARINE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR
TODAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER LAND. MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE SAVED UNTIL WEDNESDAY. CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THOUGH...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS
DOWN IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE LOWER...POSSIBLY BEING HELD BELOW 90 FOR MANY AREAS
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SPORADIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT A GENERAL LETUP WILL BE ON TAP AS DOLLY MOVES
INLAND AND WEAKENS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND UPRIVER OVER THE UPPER VALLEY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...REMNANTS OF DOLLY CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH MOISTURE STILL
HANGING AROUND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. AFTER FRIDAY...THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS TEXAS...INHIBITING THE CONVECTIVE FORMATION SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS DIVERGE AFTER SATURDAY..WITH JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THEM TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MIDLEVEL LOW THAT IS SWIRLING ABOVE THE BAHAMAS
WILL CONTINUE TO TREK WWD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST ISSUE IS WILL THIS FEATURE CONTINUE
WWD AND REACH THE WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK...OR GET SLOWED
DOWN BY WEAK TROUGHING FROM THE NORTH. CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD
THE LATTER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF...WITH A DRIER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF
WATERS WILL INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST AND THEN
MOVES INLAND. WINDS TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 11 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS EAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND THE CITY
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
TROPICAL SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO INCREASE...PRODUCING
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CSTL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE HAZARDOUS
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...AND A RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY WANE. THURSDAY SEAS OF 4
TO 5 FEET WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 2 FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  86  80  89 /  40  50  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          78  86  78  90 /  50  50  30  40
HARLINGEN            78  87  78  90 /  40  40  30  40
MCALLEN              78  88  77  92 /  30  50  30  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  89  77  92 /  30  70  30  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  85  81  86 /  60  60  40  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

54/64






000
FXUS64 KBRO 021944
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DOLLY IS HEADED
TOWARD LANDFALL THIS EVENING AROUND 125 MILES SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN AMOUNTS.
MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO WED. CONVERGENT
BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER IT MOVES INLAND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT FOR RAIN LOCALLY... WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE PEAK. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.16 INCHES WITH DEEP EAST FLOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO TWO AND A QUARTER INCHES ON WED...COURTESY
OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. RAIN AMOUNTS COULD RANGE BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IMPACTS WILL BE INCLUDE MAINLY
NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER COULD ACCUMULATE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ANY BREAKS IN THE SKY ALLOWING
FOR A PEAK AT THE SUN WEDNESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY BEING DEFLECTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST. INCREASING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED MARINE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR
TODAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER LAND. MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE SAVED UNTIL WEDNESDAY. CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THOUGH...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS
DOWN IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE LOWER...POSSIBLY BEING HELD BELOW 90 FOR MANY AREAS
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SPORADIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT A GENERAL LETUP WILL BE ON TAP AS DOLLY MOVES
INLAND AND WEAKENS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND UPRIVER OVER THE UPPER VALLEY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...REMNANTS OF DOLLY CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH MOISTURE STILL
HANGING AROUND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. AFTER FRIDAY...THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS TEXAS...INHIBITING THE CONVECTIVE FORMATION SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS DIVERGE AFTER SATURDAY..WITH JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THEM TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MIDLEVEL LOW THAT IS SWIRLING ABOVE THE BAHAMAS
WILL CONTINUE TO TREK WWD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST ISSUE IS WILL THIS FEATURE CONTINUE
WWD AND REACH THE WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK...OR GET SLOWED
DOWN BY WEAK TROUGHING FROM THE NORTH. CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD
THE LATTER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF...WITH A DRIER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF
WATERS WILL INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST AND THEN
MOVES INLAND. WINDS TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 11 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS EAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND THE CITY
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
TROPICAL SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO INCREASE...PRODUCING
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CSTL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE HAZARDOUS
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...AND A RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY WANE. THURSDAY SEAS OF 4
TO 5 FEET WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 2 FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  86  80  89 /  40  50  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          78  86  78  90 /  50  50  30  40
HARLINGEN            78  87  78  90 /  40  40  30  40
MCALLEN              78  88  77  92 /  30  50  30  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  89  77  92 /  30  70  30  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  85  81  86 /  60  60  40  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

54/64






000
FXUS64 KBRO 021944
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DOLLY IS HEADED
TOWARD LANDFALL THIS EVENING AROUND 125 MILES SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN AMOUNTS.
MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO WED. CONVERGENT
BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER IT MOVES INLAND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT FOR RAIN LOCALLY... WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE PEAK. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.16 INCHES WITH DEEP EAST FLOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO TWO AND A QUARTER INCHES ON WED...COURTESY
OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. RAIN AMOUNTS COULD RANGE BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IMPACTS WILL BE INCLUDE MAINLY
NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER COULD ACCUMULATE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ANY BREAKS IN THE SKY ALLOWING
FOR A PEAK AT THE SUN WEDNESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY BEING DEFLECTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST. INCREASING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED MARINE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR
TODAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER LAND. MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE SAVED UNTIL WEDNESDAY. CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THOUGH...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS
DOWN IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE LOWER...POSSIBLY BEING HELD BELOW 90 FOR MANY AREAS
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SPORADIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT A GENERAL LETUP WILL BE ON TAP AS DOLLY MOVES
INLAND AND WEAKENS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND UPRIVER OVER THE UPPER VALLEY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...REMNANTS OF DOLLY CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH MOISTURE STILL
HANGING AROUND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. AFTER FRIDAY...THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS TEXAS...INHIBITING THE CONVECTIVE FORMATION SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS DIVERGE AFTER SATURDAY..WITH JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THEM TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MIDLEVEL LOW THAT IS SWIRLING ABOVE THE BAHAMAS
WILL CONTINUE TO TREK WWD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST ISSUE IS WILL THIS FEATURE CONTINUE
WWD AND REACH THE WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK...OR GET SLOWED
DOWN BY WEAK TROUGHING FROM THE NORTH. CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD
THE LATTER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF...WITH A DRIER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF
WATERS WILL INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST AND THEN
MOVES INLAND. WINDS TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 11 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS EAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND THE CITY
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
TROPICAL SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO INCREASE...PRODUCING
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CSTL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE HAZARDOUS
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...AND A RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY WANE. THURSDAY SEAS OF 4
TO 5 FEET WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 2 FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  86  80  89 /  40  50  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          78  86  78  90 /  50  50  30  40
HARLINGEN            78  87  78  90 /  40  40  30  40
MCALLEN              78  88  77  92 /  30  50  30  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  89  77  92 /  30  70  30  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  85  81  86 /  60  60  40  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

54/64






000
FXUS64 KBRO 021944
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...DOLLY IS HEADED
TOWARD LANDFALL THIS EVENING AROUND 125 MILES SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE RAIN AMOUNTS.
MOST OF THE RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO WED. CONVERGENT
BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER IT MOVES INLAND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT FOR RAIN LOCALLY... WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE PEAK. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.16 INCHES WITH DEEP EAST FLOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO TWO AND A QUARTER INCHES ON WED...COURTESY
OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. RAIN AMOUNTS COULD RANGE BETWEEN ONE AND
TWO INCHES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IMPACTS WILL BE INCLUDE MAINLY
NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER COULD ACCUMULATE
QUICKLY IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. ANY BREAKS IN THE SKY ALLOWING
FOR A PEAK AT THE SUN WEDNESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY BEING DEFLECTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST. INCREASING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED MARINE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY FOR
TODAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER LAND. MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE SAVED UNTIL WEDNESDAY. CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THOUGH...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS
DOWN IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR
FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE LOWER...POSSIBLY BEING HELD BELOW 90 FOR MANY AREAS
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SPORADIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT A GENERAL LETUP WILL BE ON TAP AS DOLLY MOVES
INLAND AND WEAKENS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND UPRIVER OVER THE UPPER VALLEY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...REMNANTS OF DOLLY CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH MOISTURE STILL
HANGING AROUND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. AFTER FRIDAY...THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS TEXAS...INHIBITING THE CONVECTIVE FORMATION SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS DIVERGE AFTER SATURDAY..WITH JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THEM TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MIDLEVEL LOW THAT IS SWIRLING ABOVE THE BAHAMAS
WILL CONTINUE TO TREK WWD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST ISSUE IS WILL THIS FEATURE CONTINUE
WWD AND REACH THE WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK...OR GET SLOWED
DOWN BY WEAK TROUGHING FROM THE NORTH. CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD
THE LATTER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF...WITH A DRIER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF
WATERS WILL INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST AND THEN
MOVES INLAND. WINDS TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 11 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS EAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND THE CITY
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
TROPICAL SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO INCREASE...PRODUCING
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CSTL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE HAZARDOUS
AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...AND A RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE EFFECTS OF DOLLY WANE. THURSDAY SEAS OF 4
TO 5 FEET WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 2 FEET. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  86  80  89 /  40  50  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          78  86  78  90 /  50  50  30  40
HARLINGEN            78  87  78  90 /  40  40  30  40
MCALLEN              78  88  77  92 /  30  50  30  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  89  77  92 /  30  70  30  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  85  81  86 /  60  60  40  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

54/64






000
FXUS64 KMAF 021930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the
southern CONUS ridge centered over Texas, and in the process of
migrating further east to the Gulf Coast states in the next 24
hours.  As this is occurring, thicknesses are on the way down,
w/current temps a couple of degrees cooler than this time 24 hours
ago.  As the ridge keeps filling into the SE CONUS, temps should
drop to about a cat abv normal by Thursday, and stay there into next
week.  The ridge begins building back west Friday, but somewhat
weaker than now.  This morning`s NAM run seems to have finally come
out of its cold affectation, and matches up fairly well w/the GFS.
The ECMWF is more in line, as well, yet still a couple of degrees
cooler.  Considering models` performance the past few runs, the
warmer end of guidance is preferred.

As the ridge continues building east, easterlies to the south are
forecast to advect Gulf moisture up the Rio Grande Valley, and this
will increase chances of convection making it into the lwr Trans
Pecos over the next few days, especially if remnants of T.S. Dolly
are entrained into the flow.  Models also hint at isolated
convection from monsoonal mstr clipping SE NM in SW flow aloft
around the ridge later in the week.

Otherwise, the ECMWF and CMC continue to bring a cold front into the
CWA Saturday night, whereas the GFS and DGEX stalled/dissipate it
before it arrives.  Given the models` tendency to be a bit too
exuberant w/the first few fronts of late summer, we`re inclined to
side w/the GFS/DGEX, and keep things warmer/drier.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  93  71  92  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              74  94  73  92  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  98  71  95  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  92  75  91  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  95  71  92  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  94  65  89  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   69  93  68  91  /   0  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   59  88  60  85  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  94  73  92  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  75  94  72  91  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    76  99  73  95  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 021930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the
southern CONUS ridge centered over Texas, and in the process of
migrating further east to the Gulf Coast states in the next 24
hours.  As this is occurring, thicknesses are on the way down,
w/current temps a couple of degrees cooler than this time 24 hours
ago.  As the ridge keeps filling into the SE CONUS, temps should
drop to about a cat abv normal by Thursday, and stay there into next
week.  The ridge begins building back west Friday, but somewhat
weaker than now.  This morning`s NAM run seems to have finally come
out of its cold affectation, and matches up fairly well w/the GFS.
The ECMWF is more in line, as well, yet still a couple of degrees
cooler.  Considering models` performance the past few runs, the
warmer end of guidance is preferred.

As the ridge continues building east, easterlies to the south are
forecast to advect Gulf moisture up the Rio Grande Valley, and this
will increase chances of convection making it into the lwr Trans
Pecos over the next few days, especially if remnants of T.S. Dolly
are entrained into the flow.  Models also hint at isolated
convection from monsoonal mstr clipping SE NM in SW flow aloft
around the ridge later in the week.

Otherwise, the ECMWF and CMC continue to bring a cold front into the
CWA Saturday night, whereas the GFS and DGEX stalled/dissipate it
before it arrives.  Given the models` tendency to be a bit too
exuberant w/the first few fronts of late summer, we`re inclined to
side w/the GFS/DGEX, and keep things warmer/drier.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  93  71  92  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              74  94  73  92  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  98  71  95  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  92  75  91  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  95  71  92  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  94  65  89  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   69  93  68  91  /   0  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   59  88  60  85  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  94  73  92  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  75  94  72  91  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    76  99  73  95  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KCRP 021805 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
105 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM ALI-VCT...EXPECTED TO
MOVE FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MAY MOVE IN TOWARD CRP AS
WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH VFR/MVFR
STRATUS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 10-15
KTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND AND INCREASED SWELL
PERIODS. IN ADDITION...AS LOCATIONS ALONG THE BEACH REACH HIGH
TIDE OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW.
FOR THIS...ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY
FROM PORT ARANSAS AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NATIONAL SEASHORE.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND WEBB
COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH FROM 105 TO 109F.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  78  90  78  90  /  50  30  60  30  40
VICTORIA          93  76  93  77  94  /  50  20  40  20  30
LAREDO           101  80  94  79  92  /  20  20  50  40  40
ALICE             95  77  91  76  91  /  50  20  60  30  40
ROCKPORT          91  81  90  80  88  /  50  30  50  30  40
COTULLA           99  76  94  77  92  /  20  20  40  20  40
KINGSVILLE        94  78  90  77  92  /  50  30  60  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       91  81  89  80  87  /  50  40  60  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 021805 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
105 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM ALI-VCT...EXPECTED TO
MOVE FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MAY MOVE IN TOWARD CRP AS
WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH VFR/MVFR
STRATUS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 10-15
KTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND AND INCREASED SWELL
PERIODS. IN ADDITION...AS LOCATIONS ALONG THE BEACH REACH HIGH
TIDE OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW.
FOR THIS...ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY
FROM PORT ARANSAS AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NATIONAL SEASHORE.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND WEBB
COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH FROM 105 TO 109F.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  78  90  78  90  /  50  30  60  30  40
VICTORIA          93  76  93  77  94  /  50  20  40  20  30
LAREDO           101  80  94  79  92  /  20  20  50  40  40
ALICE             95  77  91  76  91  /  50  20  60  30  40
ROCKPORT          91  81  90  80  88  /  50  30  50  30  40
COTULLA           99  76  94  77  92  /  20  20  40  20  40
KINGSVILLE        94  78  90  77  92  /  50  30  60  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       91  81  89  80  87  /  50  40  60  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KHGX 021757
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1257 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LITTLE REGIONAL AIR MASS CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THE
RESIDENT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MOIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE METRO HUBS TODAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD GULF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INLAND DURING THE EARLY AM WED HOURS WILL
PLACE MORE COASTAL TERMINALS UNDER MODERATE CHANCES FOR SPEED
CONVERGENCE SHRA OR TSRA THROUGH SUNRISE. THUS...THE THINKING IS
THAT MANY TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING
SHOWERS...WITH THAT EVEN SHORTER-LIVED THUNDERSTORM...PASSING
WITHIN THE VICINITY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.2 INCHES AND THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY GPS MET DATA, CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 86 AND
88 DEGREES TODAY AND THIS THRESHOLD WILL BE MET EASILY. A WELL
DEVELOPED S/WV EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WHICH SERVE AS ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. UPPER LEVEL RIDING HAS
INCHED CLOSER TO SE TX WHICH WILL IMPART A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE. THE
RAP IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL THIS AFTN WHILE THE
HRRR/ARW-EAST REMAIN MORE BENIGN. THE RAP WAS OVERDONE YESTERDAY
AND DID NOT INITIALIZE ALL THAT WELL SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A HRRR/WRF
BLEND. CHANCE POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE SO NO CHANGES TO THE POP/WX
GRIDS. DID BUMP MAX T GRIDS UP A FEW DEGREES TO MATCH TRENDS/OBS.
AS FOR TS DOLLY...THE STORM WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL A BIT
EARLIER...SOMETIME THIS EVENING. THE MAIN EFFECT FOR SE TX WILL BE
INCREASING SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND A 1.0-1.5
FOOT BUMP UP IN TIDE LEVELS. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1030 AM. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

&&

MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  94  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  76  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 021757
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1257 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LITTLE REGIONAL AIR MASS CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THE
RESIDENT UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MOIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE METRO HUBS TODAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD GULF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INLAND DURING THE EARLY AM WED HOURS WILL
PLACE MORE COASTAL TERMINALS UNDER MODERATE CHANCES FOR SPEED
CONVERGENCE SHRA OR TSRA THROUGH SUNRISE. THUS...THE THINKING IS
THAT MANY TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF PASSING
SHOWERS...WITH THAT EVEN SHORTER-LIVED THUNDERSTORM...PASSING
WITHIN THE VICINITY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.2 INCHES AND THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY GPS MET DATA, CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 86 AND
88 DEGREES TODAY AND THIS THRESHOLD WILL BE MET EASILY. A WELL
DEVELOPED S/WV EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WHICH SERVE AS ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. UPPER LEVEL RIDING HAS
INCHED CLOSER TO SE TX WHICH WILL IMPART A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE. THE
RAP IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL THIS AFTN WHILE THE
HRRR/ARW-EAST REMAIN MORE BENIGN. THE RAP WAS OVERDONE YESTERDAY
AND DID NOT INITIALIZE ALL THAT WELL SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A HRRR/WRF
BLEND. CHANCE POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE SO NO CHANGES TO THE POP/WX
GRIDS. DID BUMP MAX T GRIDS UP A FEW DEGREES TO MATCH TRENDS/OBS.
AS FOR TS DOLLY...THE STORM WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL A BIT
EARLIER...SOMETIME THIS EVENING. THE MAIN EFFECT FOR SE TX WILL BE
INCREASING SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND A 1.0-1.5
FOOT BUMP UP IN TIDE LEVELS. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1030 AM. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

&&

MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  95  75  94  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  93  76  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KFWD 021751 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO ADD 20 POPS FROM ATHENS NORTHWARD INTO THE SHERMAN
TO PARIS AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS STILL PROGRESSING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT MIDDAY AND SHOULD HANG TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER OVER BOTH LAMAR AND FANNIN COUNTIES.


75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
TAF FORECAST IS ONE OF PERSISTENCE AS VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IMPACTS KDAL/KACT
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 11-16Z. KDFW/KGKY ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT ON THE
EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK AND WILL SHOW ONLY A TEMPO FROM 13-15Z
DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT
10-15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX...AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KACT THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE JUST
SHOWERS AND TOO FAR REMOVED FROM METROPLEX SITES FOR ANY MENTION
OF VCSH. LIKEWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SHOWERS NEAR WACO...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

TR.92


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
WE WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS MOVING SOUTH BUT SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. DO EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY NEAR PARIS BY 1 PM BEFORE DYING OFF. THE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IS VERY SPOTTY AT THE
MOMENT BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FARTHER NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE MORNING TEMPS LOOK GOOD BUT WILL UPDATE
THE HOURLY GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT WARMING TRENDS. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

08Z/3AM REGIONAL RADAR DERIVED WINDS (VAD WINDS) INDICATED A 35 KT
LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH TO THE
OK/KS BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS IN PLACE ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CONTINUED TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AT THE
500 MB LEVEL...AND THE 00Z FWD RAOB SHOWED A STOUT MID-LEVEL CAP
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO TRACK AN AREA OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OVERNIGHT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPGRADED THIS ACTIVITY TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...SO WE OFFICIALLY HAVE TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WHICH WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO WATCH TODAY THAT MAY
BRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
FIRST IS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH DOLLY MOVING NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER WILL START TO BECOME
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY PROPAGATION AND MOVE SOUTH RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE. THIS IS ASSUMING THAT THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CAN
BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR ITS COLD POOL TO MOVE THIS LINE OF
STORMS IN A NEW DIRECTION THIS MORNING.

...THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH IS AN EXPLANATION OF THOSE FACTORS THAT
DICTATE STORM MOTION AND REALLY DOES NOT CONTRIBUTE TO THE
FORECAST...IT IS INCLUDED TO HELP PROVIDE INSIGHT/UNDERSTANDING
FOR THOSE INTERESTED. YOU CAN SKIP THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH TO
CONTINUE ON WITH THE FORECAST DISCUSSION...

IN A BASIC SENSE...THE MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS IS
CONTROLLED BY THE AVERAGE OF THE WINDS ALOFT...OFTEN REFERRED TO
AS THE STEERING WINDS. IN MOST CASES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SIMPLY
MOVE IN THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT ARE BLOWING.
HOWEVER THE SECOND COMPONENT TO CONSIDER IS OFTEN REFERRED TO AS
THE PROPAGATION COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION. PROPAGATION INFLUENCES
STORM MOTION BY CHANGING THE DIRECTION OF MOTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
SYSTEM IN THE DIRECTION THAT NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS IS
THE MORE COMPLICATED FACTOR TO UNDERSTAND...BUT IN GENERAL...NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO DEVELOP IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. ON A DAY LIKE TODAY...WHERE THE STEERING WINDS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIGHT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS...BUT THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IS RELATIVELY STRONG...THE PROPAGATION COMPONENT CAN
DOMINATE THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM MOVES. FOR
TODAY...THE STEERING WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND WOULD INDICATE
AN EASTERLY STORM MOTION. THIS IS WHY THE STORMS ARE JUST SORT OF
SITTING THERE ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 3 AM. HOWEVER IF THIS RESULTS
IN A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL (A COLLECTION OF RAIN COOLED AIR)
THIS COLD POOL COULD START TO SURGE SOUTH...CAUSING NEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM OUR CWA TO THE FRONT...THE WHOLE
COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD START TO MOVE SOUTH DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER...BUT WILL STILL MOVE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST DUE
TO THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT. THIS IS A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN DIRECTION
FROM WHAT STORMS HAVE BEEN DOING OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MAKES SENSE IN
THE CONTEXT OF WHAT WAS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

THE MAIN POINT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS MORNING IS: WILL
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO MOVE AS A SYSTEM?

THAT IS LARGELY UNKNOWN BECAUSE JUST LOOKING AT THE STORMS ON
RADAR IS NOT ENOUGH TO DETERMINE HOW STRONG THE COLD POOL WILL
GET...BUT THE FACT THAT THE HRRR AND THE TEXAS TECH WRF BOTH
ADVERTISE A DRAMATIC SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS
THE RED RIVER AROUND SUNRISE GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION.
WENT AHEAD AND PLACED A VERY SMALL AREA OF 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST
FROM JUST NORTH OF SHERMAN EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING
MUCH OF LAMAR COUNTY. IF THE STORMS DO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AS THESE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE...THEY WILL BE IN THEIR
DISSIPATING STAGES BY THE TIME THEY CROSS THE RED RIVER WELL
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...SO NO STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE TX GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT MID-LEVEL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY
MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MEXICO GULF COAST. THIS
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO REORIENTED POPS A BIT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IN GENERAL...THERE IS
STILL NO OBVIOUS LIFT...SO THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...AND LEFT POPS AT THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE OFF TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS SEEM TO SEND
THE DEEPER MID-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST WITH
DOLLY...SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND LEFT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST DRY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT
IN KEEPING THINGS DRY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS STILL SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE PRIMARY REASON
THAT THE FRONT MAKES IT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IS DUE TO
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK.
IF THE FRONTAL MOTION IS REALLY DEPENDENT UPON PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN LOW UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.

THE BIGGEST REASON FOR OPTIMISM IN THE FRONT MAKING IT THIS FAR
SOUTH IS OBSERVING WHAT HAPPENS TODAY. IF MCS ACTIVITY FROM THE
OK/KS BORDER ACTUALLY SURGES SOUTH THIS MORNING...IT BECOMES EASY
TO SEE HOW PERSISTENT STORMS TO OUR NORTH CAN SEND A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS UNDER WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...SO LEFT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON
SATURDAY...AND KEPT THEM BROAD BRUSHED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FRONT...ASSUMING IT MAKES IT HERE THIS
WEEKEND...WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. BECAUSE THE FRONT
DOES NOT REPRESENT A TRUE AIRMASS REPLACEMENT...THAT IS...THERE IS
NO CANADIAN/OR SIGNIFICANTLY COOL AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AND LOSE DEFINITION QUICKLY
UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. LEFT THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY AS
A RESULT.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  96  77  96 /  10   5   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  97  74  97 /  20  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             92  72  91  72  92 /  20  10   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            96  75  95  74  95 /  10   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          95  74  94  74  94 /  10   5   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  96  78  96 /  10   5   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  76  96  75  96 /  10  10   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  76  96  75  96 /  20  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  72  97  73  97 /  20  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  96  72  96 /  10   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75






000
FXUS64 KFWD 021751 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO ADD 20 POPS FROM ATHENS NORTHWARD INTO THE SHERMAN
TO PARIS AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS STILL PROGRESSING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT MIDDAY AND SHOULD HANG TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER OVER BOTH LAMAR AND FANNIN COUNTIES.


75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
TAF FORECAST IS ONE OF PERSISTENCE AS VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IMPACTS KDAL/KACT
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 11-16Z. KDFW/KGKY ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT ON THE
EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK AND WILL SHOW ONLY A TEMPO FROM 13-15Z
DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT
10-15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX...AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KACT THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE JUST
SHOWERS AND TOO FAR REMOVED FROM METROPLEX SITES FOR ANY MENTION
OF VCSH. LIKEWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SHOWERS NEAR WACO...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

TR.92


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
WE WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS MOVING SOUTH BUT SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. DO EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY NEAR PARIS BY 1 PM BEFORE DYING OFF. THE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IS VERY SPOTTY AT THE
MOMENT BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FARTHER NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE MORNING TEMPS LOOK GOOD BUT WILL UPDATE
THE HOURLY GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT WARMING TRENDS. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

08Z/3AM REGIONAL RADAR DERIVED WINDS (VAD WINDS) INDICATED A 35 KT
LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH TO THE
OK/KS BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS IN PLACE ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CONTINUED TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AT THE
500 MB LEVEL...AND THE 00Z FWD RAOB SHOWED A STOUT MID-LEVEL CAP
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO TRACK AN AREA OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OVERNIGHT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPGRADED THIS ACTIVITY TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...SO WE OFFICIALLY HAVE TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WHICH WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO WATCH TODAY THAT MAY
BRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
FIRST IS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH DOLLY MOVING NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER WILL START TO BECOME
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY PROPAGATION AND MOVE SOUTH RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE. THIS IS ASSUMING THAT THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CAN
BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR ITS COLD POOL TO MOVE THIS LINE OF
STORMS IN A NEW DIRECTION THIS MORNING.

...THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH IS AN EXPLANATION OF THOSE FACTORS THAT
DICTATE STORM MOTION AND REALLY DOES NOT CONTRIBUTE TO THE
FORECAST...IT IS INCLUDED TO HELP PROVIDE INSIGHT/UNDERSTANDING
FOR THOSE INTERESTED. YOU CAN SKIP THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH TO
CONTINUE ON WITH THE FORECAST DISCUSSION...

IN A BASIC SENSE...THE MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS IS
CONTROLLED BY THE AVERAGE OF THE WINDS ALOFT...OFTEN REFERRED TO
AS THE STEERING WINDS. IN MOST CASES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SIMPLY
MOVE IN THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT ARE BLOWING.
HOWEVER THE SECOND COMPONENT TO CONSIDER IS OFTEN REFERRED TO AS
THE PROPAGATION COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION. PROPAGATION INFLUENCES
STORM MOTION BY CHANGING THE DIRECTION OF MOTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
SYSTEM IN THE DIRECTION THAT NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS IS
THE MORE COMPLICATED FACTOR TO UNDERSTAND...BUT IN GENERAL...NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO DEVELOP IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. ON A DAY LIKE TODAY...WHERE THE STEERING WINDS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIGHT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS...BUT THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IS RELATIVELY STRONG...THE PROPAGATION COMPONENT CAN
DOMINATE THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM MOVES. FOR
TODAY...THE STEERING WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND WOULD INDICATE
AN EASTERLY STORM MOTION. THIS IS WHY THE STORMS ARE JUST SORT OF
SITTING THERE ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 3 AM. HOWEVER IF THIS RESULTS
IN A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL (A COLLECTION OF RAIN COOLED AIR)
THIS COLD POOL COULD START TO SURGE SOUTH...CAUSING NEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM OUR CWA TO THE FRONT...THE WHOLE
COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD START TO MOVE SOUTH DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER...BUT WILL STILL MOVE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST DUE
TO THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT. THIS IS A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN DIRECTION
FROM WHAT STORMS HAVE BEEN DOING OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MAKES SENSE IN
THE CONTEXT OF WHAT WAS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

THE MAIN POINT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS MORNING IS: WILL
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO MOVE AS A SYSTEM?

THAT IS LARGELY UNKNOWN BECAUSE JUST LOOKING AT THE STORMS ON
RADAR IS NOT ENOUGH TO DETERMINE HOW STRONG THE COLD POOL WILL
GET...BUT THE FACT THAT THE HRRR AND THE TEXAS TECH WRF BOTH
ADVERTISE A DRAMATIC SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS
THE RED RIVER AROUND SUNRISE GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION.
WENT AHEAD AND PLACED A VERY SMALL AREA OF 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST
FROM JUST NORTH OF SHERMAN EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING
MUCH OF LAMAR COUNTY. IF THE STORMS DO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AS THESE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE...THEY WILL BE IN THEIR
DISSIPATING STAGES BY THE TIME THEY CROSS THE RED RIVER WELL
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...SO NO STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE TX GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT MID-LEVEL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY
MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MEXICO GULF COAST. THIS
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO REORIENTED POPS A BIT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IN GENERAL...THERE IS
STILL NO OBVIOUS LIFT...SO THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...AND LEFT POPS AT THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE OFF TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS SEEM TO SEND
THE DEEPER MID-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST WITH
DOLLY...SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND LEFT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST DRY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT
IN KEEPING THINGS DRY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS STILL SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE PRIMARY REASON
THAT THE FRONT MAKES IT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IS DUE TO
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK.
IF THE FRONTAL MOTION IS REALLY DEPENDENT UPON PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN LOW UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.

THE BIGGEST REASON FOR OPTIMISM IN THE FRONT MAKING IT THIS FAR
SOUTH IS OBSERVING WHAT HAPPENS TODAY. IF MCS ACTIVITY FROM THE
OK/KS BORDER ACTUALLY SURGES SOUTH THIS MORNING...IT BECOMES EASY
TO SEE HOW PERSISTENT STORMS TO OUR NORTH CAN SEND A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS UNDER WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...SO LEFT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON
SATURDAY...AND KEPT THEM BROAD BRUSHED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FRONT...ASSUMING IT MAKES IT HERE THIS
WEEKEND...WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. BECAUSE THE FRONT
DOES NOT REPRESENT A TRUE AIRMASS REPLACEMENT...THAT IS...THERE IS
NO CANADIAN/OR SIGNIFICANTLY COOL AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AND LOSE DEFINITION QUICKLY
UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. LEFT THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY AS
A RESULT.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  96  77  96 /  10   5   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  97  74  97 /  20  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             92  72  91  72  92 /  20  10   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            96  75  95  74  95 /  10   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          95  74  94  74  94 /  10   5   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  96  78  96 /  10   5   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  76  96  75  96 /  10  10   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  76  96  75  96 /  20  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  72  97  73  97 /  20  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  96  72  96 /  10   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75





000
FXUS64 KEWX 021743
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1243 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
WILL SEE SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN AIRPORT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IF TAFS.
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH WILL NOT BE LIKELY TO REDUCE CIG
OR VIS BELOW VFR. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO THE LOWER 20S THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS AND LATER AT DRT.
CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL AGAIN
BE LOW CHANCES FOR TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INCLUDED PROB30 AT
SAT...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOWER AT AUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE
DUE TO A STRONGER FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HAVE ADDED POPS TO
INCLUDE THESE AREAS FOR TODAY AND BOOSTED SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM THE WRN GULF
INTO MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE NHC DEFINED SURFACE POSITION AND
TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWS A GOOD
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY CONCENTRATING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TODAY. FARTHER NORTH HIGH HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. A STUBBORN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX IS STILL
LIKELY TO HOLD OF A DEEP INTRUSION OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TODAY...BUT COULD SET UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
GOOD RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DEEP SURFACE TO 500 HPA
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR DRT. WILL FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF
GUIDANCE OVER THE DRIER GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AUSTIN METRO
AREA AND POINTS NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE OUT FRINGE OF
THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM A FEW TRAINING CELLS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO NOT PRESENT A CONCERN FOR RUNOFF.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY OVER MAINLY THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRIER. THE
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK OF DOLLY EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL SHOULD
LEAVE ONLY REMNANT MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO TX...SO THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VORTICITY TO HELP CONCENTRATE RAIN CHANCES.
THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POP DAYS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES COULD KEEP A FEW
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE
RESILIENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO EXTEND
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS NOT SHOWN TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE CENTRAL TX RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO AGREE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO POSSIBLY MODIFY THE HEAT
WAVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  97  76 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  97  74  96  73 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  97  74  96  73 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  95  75  93  75 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  76  96  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  95  73  94  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  95  75  95  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  96  76  96  76 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 021743
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1243 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
WILL SEE SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN AIRPORT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IF TAFS.
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH WILL NOT BE LIKELY TO REDUCE CIG
OR VIS BELOW VFR. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO THE LOWER 20S THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS AND LATER AT DRT.
CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL AGAIN
BE LOW CHANCES FOR TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INCLUDED PROB30 AT
SAT...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOWER AT AUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE
DUE TO A STRONGER FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HAVE ADDED POPS TO
INCLUDE THESE AREAS FOR TODAY AND BOOSTED SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM THE WRN GULF
INTO MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE NHC DEFINED SURFACE POSITION AND
TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWS A GOOD
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY CONCENTRATING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TODAY. FARTHER NORTH HIGH HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. A STUBBORN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX IS STILL
LIKELY TO HOLD OF A DEEP INTRUSION OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TODAY...BUT COULD SET UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
GOOD RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DEEP SURFACE TO 500 HPA
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR DRT. WILL FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF
GUIDANCE OVER THE DRIER GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AUSTIN METRO
AREA AND POINTS NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE OUT FRINGE OF
THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM A FEW TRAINING CELLS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO NOT PRESENT A CONCERN FOR RUNOFF.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY OVER MAINLY THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRIER. THE
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK OF DOLLY EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL SHOULD
LEAVE ONLY REMNANT MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO TX...SO THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VORTICITY TO HELP CONCENTRATE RAIN CHANCES.
THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POP DAYS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES COULD KEEP A FEW
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE
RESILIENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO EXTEND
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS NOT SHOWN TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE CENTRAL TX RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO AGREE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO POSSIBLY MODIFY THE HEAT
WAVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  97  76 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  97  74  96  73 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  97  74  96  73 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  95  75  93  75 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  76  96  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  95  73  94  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  95  75  95  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  96  76  96  76 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 021743
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1243 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
WILL SEE SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN AIRPORT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IF TAFS.
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH WILL NOT BE LIKELY TO REDUCE CIG
OR VIS BELOW VFR. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO THE LOWER 20S THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS AND LATER AT DRT.
CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL AGAIN
BE LOW CHANCES FOR TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INCLUDED PROB30 AT
SAT...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOWER AT AUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE
DUE TO A STRONGER FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HAVE ADDED POPS TO
INCLUDE THESE AREAS FOR TODAY AND BOOSTED SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM THE WRN GULF
INTO MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE NHC DEFINED SURFACE POSITION AND
TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWS A GOOD
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY CONCENTRATING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TODAY. FARTHER NORTH HIGH HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. A STUBBORN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX IS STILL
LIKELY TO HOLD OF A DEEP INTRUSION OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TODAY...BUT COULD SET UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
GOOD RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DEEP SURFACE TO 500 HPA
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR DRT. WILL FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF
GUIDANCE OVER THE DRIER GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AUSTIN METRO
AREA AND POINTS NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE OUT FRINGE OF
THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM A FEW TRAINING CELLS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO NOT PRESENT A CONCERN FOR RUNOFF.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY OVER MAINLY THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRIER. THE
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK OF DOLLY EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL SHOULD
LEAVE ONLY REMNANT MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO TX...SO THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VORTICITY TO HELP CONCENTRATE RAIN CHANCES.
THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POP DAYS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES COULD KEEP A FEW
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE
RESILIENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO EXTEND
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS NOT SHOWN TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE CENTRAL TX RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO AGREE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO POSSIBLY MODIFY THE HEAT
WAVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  97  76 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  97  74  96  73 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  97  74  96  73 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  95  75  93  75 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  76  96  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  95  73  94  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  95  75  95  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  96  76  96  76 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 021743
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1243 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
WILL SEE SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN AIRPORT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IF TAFS.
ANY SHOWERS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH WILL NOT BE LIKELY TO REDUCE CIG
OR VIS BELOW VFR. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO THE LOWER 20S THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AROUND
MIDNIGHT IN THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS AND LATER AT DRT.
CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL AGAIN
BE LOW CHANCES FOR TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INCLUDED PROB30 AT
SAT...BUT PROBABILITY IS LOWER AT AUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE
DUE TO A STRONGER FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HAVE ADDED POPS TO
INCLUDE THESE AREAS FOR TODAY AND BOOSTED SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM THE WRN GULF
INTO MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE NHC DEFINED SURFACE POSITION AND
TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWS A GOOD
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY CONCENTRATING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TODAY. FARTHER NORTH HIGH HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. A STUBBORN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX IS STILL
LIKELY TO HOLD OF A DEEP INTRUSION OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TODAY...BUT COULD SET UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
GOOD RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DEEP SURFACE TO 500 HPA
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR DRT. WILL FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF
GUIDANCE OVER THE DRIER GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AUSTIN METRO
AREA AND POINTS NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE OUT FRINGE OF
THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM A FEW TRAINING CELLS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO NOT PRESENT A CONCERN FOR RUNOFF.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY OVER MAINLY THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRIER. THE
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK OF DOLLY EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL SHOULD
LEAVE ONLY REMNANT MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO TX...SO THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VORTICITY TO HELP CONCENTRATE RAIN CHANCES.
THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POP DAYS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES COULD KEEP A FEW
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE
RESILIENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO EXTEND
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS NOT SHOWN TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE CENTRAL TX RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO AGREE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO POSSIBLY MODIFY THE HEAT
WAVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  97  76 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  97  74  96  73 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  97  74  96  73 /  20  30  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  95  75  93  75 /  10  30  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  76  96  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  95  73  94  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  95  75  95  74 /  20  30  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  96  77  96  77 /  20  30  10  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  96  76  96  76 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KFWD 021740
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
TAF FORECAST IS ONE OF PERSISTENCE AS VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IMPACTS KDAL/KACT
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 11-16Z. KDFW/KGKY ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT ON THE
EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK AND WILL SHOW ONLY A TEMPO FROM 13-15Z
DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT
10-15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX...AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KACT THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE JUST
SHOWERS AND TOO FAR REMOVED FROM METROPLEX SITES FOR ANY MENTION
OF VCSH. LIKEWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SHOWERS NEAR WACO...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
WE WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS MOVING SOUTH BUT SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. DO EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY NEAR PARIS BY 1 PM BEFORE DYING OFF. THE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IS VERY SPOTTY AT THE
MOMENT BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FARTHER NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE MORNING TEMPS LOOK GOOD BUT WILL UPDATE
THE HOURLY GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT WARMING TRENDS. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

08Z/3AM REGIONAL RADAR DERIVED WINDS (VAD WINDS) INDICATED A 35 KT
LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH TO THE
OK/KS BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS IN PLACE ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CONTINUED TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AT THE
500 MB LEVEL...AND THE 00Z FWD RAOB SHOWED A STOUT MID-LEVEL CAP
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO TRACK AN AREA OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OVERNIGHT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPGRADED THIS ACTIVITY TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...SO WE OFFICIALLY HAVE TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WHICH WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO WATCH TODAY THAT MAY
BRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
FIRST IS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH DOLLY MOVING NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER WILL START TO BECOME
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY PROPAGATION AND MOVE SOUTH RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE. THIS IS ASSUMING THAT THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CAN
BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR ITS COLD POOL TO MOVE THIS LINE OF
STORMS IN A NEW DIRECTION THIS MORNING.

...THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH IS AN EXPLANATION OF THOSE FACTORS THAT
DICTATE STORM MOTION AND REALLY DOES NOT CONTRIBUTE TO THE
FORECAST...IT IS INCLUDED TO HELP PROVIDE INSIGHT/UNDERSTANDING
FOR THOSE INTERESTED. YOU CAN SKIP THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH TO
CONTINUE ON WITH THE FORECAST DISCUSSION...

IN A BASIC SENSE...THE MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS IS
CONTROLLED BY THE AVERAGE OF THE WINDS ALOFT...OFTEN REFERRED TO
AS THE STEERING WINDS. IN MOST CASES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SIMPLY
MOVE IN THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT ARE BLOWING.
HOWEVER THE SECOND COMPONENT TO CONSIDER IS OFTEN REFERRED TO AS
THE PROPAGATION COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION. PROPAGATION INFLUENCES
STORM MOTION BY CHANGING THE DIRECTION OF MOTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
SYSTEM IN THE DIRECTION THAT NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS IS
THE MORE COMPLICATED FACTOR TO UNDERSTAND...BUT IN GENERAL...NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO DEVELOP IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. ON A DAY LIKE TODAY...WHERE THE STEERING WINDS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIGHT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS...BUT THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IS RELATIVELY STRONG...THE PROPAGATION COMPONENT CAN
DOMINATE THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM MOVES. FOR
TODAY...THE STEERING WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND WOULD INDICATE
AN EASTERLY STORM MOTION. THIS IS WHY THE STORMS ARE JUST SORT OF
SITTING THERE ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 3 AM. HOWEVER IF THIS RESULTS
IN A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL (A COLLECTION OF RAIN COOLED AIR)
THIS COLD POOL COULD START TO SURGE SOUTH...CAUSING NEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM OUR CWA TO THE FRONT...THE WHOLE
COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD START TO MOVE SOUTH DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER...BUT WILL STILL MOVE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST DUE
TO THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT. THIS IS A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN DIRECTION
FROM WHAT STORMS HAVE BEEN DOING OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MAKES SENSE IN
THE CONTEXT OF WHAT WAS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

THE MAIN POINT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS MORNING IS: WILL
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO MOVE AS A SYSTEM?

THAT IS LARGELY UNKNOWN BECAUSE JUST LOOKING AT THE STORMS ON
RADAR IS NOT ENOUGH TO DETERMINE HOW STRONG THE COLD POOL WILL
GET...BUT THE FACT THAT THE HRRR AND THE TEXAS TECH WRF BOTH
ADVERTISE A DRAMATIC SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS
THE RED RIVER AROUND SUNRISE GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION.
WENT AHEAD AND PLACED A VERY SMALL AREA OF 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST
FROM JUST NORTH OF SHERMAN EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING
MUCH OF LAMAR COUNTY. IF THE STORMS DO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AS THESE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE...THEY WILL BE IN THEIR
DISSIPATING STAGES BY THE TIME THEY CROSS THE RED RIVER WELL
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...SO NO STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE TX GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT MID-LEVEL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY
MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MEXICO GULF COAST. THIS
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO REORIENTED POPS A BIT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IN GENERAL...THERE IS
STILL NO OBVIOUS LIFT...SO THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...AND LEFT POPS AT THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE OFF TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS SEEM TO SEND
THE DEEPER MID-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST WITH
DOLLY...SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND LEFT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST DRY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT
IN KEEPING THINGS DRY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS STILL SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE PRIMARY REASON
THAT THE FRONT MAKES IT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IS DUE TO
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK.
IF THE FRONTAL MOTION IS REALLY DEPENDENT UPON PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN LOW UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.

THE BIGGEST REASON FOR OPTIMISM IN THE FRONT MAKING IT THIS FAR
SOUTH IS OBSERVING WHAT HAPPENS TODAY. IF MCS ACTIVITY FROM THE
OK/KS BORDER ACTUALLY SURGES SOUTH THIS MORNING...IT BECOMES EASY
TO SEE HOW PERSISTENT STORMS TO OUR NORTH CAN SEND A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS UNDER WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...SO LEFT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON
SATURDAY...AND KEPT THEM BROAD BRUSHED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FRONT...ASSUMING IT MAKES IT HERE THIS
WEEKEND...WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. BECAUSE THE FRONT
DOES NOT REPRESENT A TRUE AIRMASS REPLACEMENT...THAT IS...THERE IS
NO CANADIAN/OR SIGNIFICANTLY COOL AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AND LOSE DEFINITION QUICKLY
UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. LEFT THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY AS
A RESULT.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  96  77  96 /   5   5   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  97  74  97 /  20  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             92  72  91  72  92 /  20  10   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            96  75  95  74  95 /  10   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          95  74  94  74  94 /  10   5   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  96  78  96 /   5   5   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  76  96  75  96 /  10  10   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  76  96  75  96 /  20  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  72  97  73  97 /  20  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  96  72  96 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 021740
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
TAF FORECAST IS ONE OF PERSISTENCE AS VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IMPACTS KDAL/KACT
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 11-16Z. KDFW/KGKY ARE FORECAST TO BE RIGHT ON THE
EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK AND WILL SHOW ONLY A TEMPO FROM 13-15Z
DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT
10-15KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX...AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KACT THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE JUST
SHOWERS AND TOO FAR REMOVED FROM METROPLEX SITES FOR ANY MENTION
OF VCSH. LIKEWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SHOWERS NEAR WACO...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
WE WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS MOVING SOUTH BUT SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. DO EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY NEAR PARIS BY 1 PM BEFORE DYING OFF. THE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IS VERY SPOTTY AT THE
MOMENT BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FARTHER NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE MORNING TEMPS LOOK GOOD BUT WILL UPDATE
THE HOURLY GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT WARMING TRENDS. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

08Z/3AM REGIONAL RADAR DERIVED WINDS (VAD WINDS) INDICATED A 35 KT
LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH TO THE
OK/KS BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS IN PLACE ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CONTINUED TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AT THE
500 MB LEVEL...AND THE 00Z FWD RAOB SHOWED A STOUT MID-LEVEL CAP
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO TRACK AN AREA OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OVERNIGHT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPGRADED THIS ACTIVITY TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...SO WE OFFICIALLY HAVE TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WHICH WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO WATCH TODAY THAT MAY
BRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
FIRST IS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH DOLLY MOVING NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER WILL START TO BECOME
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY PROPAGATION AND MOVE SOUTH RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE. THIS IS ASSUMING THAT THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CAN
BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR ITS COLD POOL TO MOVE THIS LINE OF
STORMS IN A NEW DIRECTION THIS MORNING.

...THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH IS AN EXPLANATION OF THOSE FACTORS THAT
DICTATE STORM MOTION AND REALLY DOES NOT CONTRIBUTE TO THE
FORECAST...IT IS INCLUDED TO HELP PROVIDE INSIGHT/UNDERSTANDING
FOR THOSE INTERESTED. YOU CAN SKIP THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH TO
CONTINUE ON WITH THE FORECAST DISCUSSION...

IN A BASIC SENSE...THE MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS IS
CONTROLLED BY THE AVERAGE OF THE WINDS ALOFT...OFTEN REFERRED TO
AS THE STEERING WINDS. IN MOST CASES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SIMPLY
MOVE IN THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT ARE BLOWING.
HOWEVER THE SECOND COMPONENT TO CONSIDER IS OFTEN REFERRED TO AS
THE PROPAGATION COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION. PROPAGATION INFLUENCES
STORM MOTION BY CHANGING THE DIRECTION OF MOTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
SYSTEM IN THE DIRECTION THAT NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS IS
THE MORE COMPLICATED FACTOR TO UNDERSTAND...BUT IN GENERAL...NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO DEVELOP IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. ON A DAY LIKE TODAY...WHERE THE STEERING WINDS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIGHT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS...BUT THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IS RELATIVELY STRONG...THE PROPAGATION COMPONENT CAN
DOMINATE THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM MOVES. FOR
TODAY...THE STEERING WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND WOULD INDICATE
AN EASTERLY STORM MOTION. THIS IS WHY THE STORMS ARE JUST SORT OF
SITTING THERE ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 3 AM. HOWEVER IF THIS RESULTS
IN A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL (A COLLECTION OF RAIN COOLED AIR)
THIS COLD POOL COULD START TO SURGE SOUTH...CAUSING NEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM OUR CWA TO THE FRONT...THE WHOLE
COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD START TO MOVE SOUTH DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER...BUT WILL STILL MOVE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST DUE
TO THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT. THIS IS A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN DIRECTION
FROM WHAT STORMS HAVE BEEN DOING OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MAKES SENSE IN
THE CONTEXT OF WHAT WAS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

THE MAIN POINT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS MORNING IS: WILL
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO MOVE AS A SYSTEM?

THAT IS LARGELY UNKNOWN BECAUSE JUST LOOKING AT THE STORMS ON
RADAR IS NOT ENOUGH TO DETERMINE HOW STRONG THE COLD POOL WILL
GET...BUT THE FACT THAT THE HRRR AND THE TEXAS TECH WRF BOTH
ADVERTISE A DRAMATIC SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS
THE RED RIVER AROUND SUNRISE GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION.
WENT AHEAD AND PLACED A VERY SMALL AREA OF 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST
FROM JUST NORTH OF SHERMAN EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING
MUCH OF LAMAR COUNTY. IF THE STORMS DO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AS THESE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE...THEY WILL BE IN THEIR
DISSIPATING STAGES BY THE TIME THEY CROSS THE RED RIVER WELL
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...SO NO STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE TX GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT MID-LEVEL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY
MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MEXICO GULF COAST. THIS
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO REORIENTED POPS A BIT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IN GENERAL...THERE IS
STILL NO OBVIOUS LIFT...SO THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...AND LEFT POPS AT THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE OFF TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS SEEM TO SEND
THE DEEPER MID-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST WITH
DOLLY...SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND LEFT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST DRY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT
IN KEEPING THINGS DRY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS STILL SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE PRIMARY REASON
THAT THE FRONT MAKES IT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IS DUE TO
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK.
IF THE FRONTAL MOTION IS REALLY DEPENDENT UPON PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN LOW UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.

THE BIGGEST REASON FOR OPTIMISM IN THE FRONT MAKING IT THIS FAR
SOUTH IS OBSERVING WHAT HAPPENS TODAY. IF MCS ACTIVITY FROM THE
OK/KS BORDER ACTUALLY SURGES SOUTH THIS MORNING...IT BECOMES EASY
TO SEE HOW PERSISTENT STORMS TO OUR NORTH CAN SEND A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS UNDER WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...SO LEFT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON
SATURDAY...AND KEPT THEM BROAD BRUSHED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FRONT...ASSUMING IT MAKES IT HERE THIS
WEEKEND...WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. BECAUSE THE FRONT
DOES NOT REPRESENT A TRUE AIRMASS REPLACEMENT...THAT IS...THERE IS
NO CANADIAN/OR SIGNIFICANTLY COOL AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AND LOSE DEFINITION QUICKLY
UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. LEFT THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY AS
A RESULT.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  96  77  96 /   5   5   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  97  74  97 /  20  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             92  72  91  72  92 /  20  10   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            96  75  95  74  95 /  10   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          95  74  94  74  94 /  10   5   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  96  78  96 /   5   5   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  76  96  75  96 /  10  10   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  76  96  75  96 /  20  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  72  97  73  97 /  20  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  96  72  96 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








000
FXUS64 KLUB 021732
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
THERE REMAINS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDER DEVELOPING
NEAR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PULL UPSTATIONARY SOUTH OF
A CLOVIS TO AMARILLO LINE. SUPPRESSION FROM UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOR THE MOST PART HELP THE CAPPING INVERSION REMAIN
STRONG...BUT MODELS STILL HAVE A WEAK SIGNAL OF SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
LONG STORY SHORT IS COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...IF ANY AT
ALL...AND WILL KEEP OUT OF BOTH TAFS.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS MAKING A RUN INTO
THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT. WILL GET THE BALL ROLLING BY INSERTING
A TEMPO MVFR MENTION IN THE KLBB TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER
MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
-TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL BETWEEN ABOUT 20 UTC AND
03 UTC. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONT COULD PRODUCE A TEMPORARY WIND
SHIFT AT KCDS AROUND 14-15 UTC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 AM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH ISN/T SURPRISING GIVEN
THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40...AND THERE WAS EVEN AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME SWD PROGRESS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SPLNS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE
CENTRAL SPLNS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WE/LL HAVE
TO RELY ON SURFACE-BASED LIFT TO GENERATE ANY MOIST CONVECTION
TODAY. KLBB FCST SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP REMAINING FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
06 UTC HRRR AND RAP RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
THE SREF...WHICH SOMEWHAT BULLSEYES THE CAPROCK CANYONS AREA. WE
WILL RUN WITH A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF T-STORMS...CENTERED ACROSS
BRISCOE COUNTY...AND ROUGHLY EXTENDING WEST TO I-27 AND SOUTH TO
NEAR HWY 82. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT ML CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORTUNATELY WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS BACK DOWN A BIT...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THE
WEAK FRONT/S INFLUENCE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WELCOME COOLING TREND EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LONGITUDINALLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS MID/LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH DECREASING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMISE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH THIS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS CAN SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST RUN SOUTHWARD
BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT NWP
HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF DOLLY
AND A TAP OFF A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ ARE FUNNELED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED TO NORTH AND WEST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL FULLY BE ABLE TO TAP THE SUB-TROPICAL
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...THE NWP SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW
AIDED FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND /AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF OR NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/. REGARDLESS...IF THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA IT WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RESIDING SOMEWHERE LOCALLY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES
FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  67  94  66  90 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  70  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  68  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     98  72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          97  69  96  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KLUB 021732
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
THERE REMAINS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDER DEVELOPING
NEAR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PULL UPSTATIONARY SOUTH OF
A CLOVIS TO AMARILLO LINE. SUPPRESSION FROM UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOR THE MOST PART HELP THE CAPPING INVERSION REMAIN
STRONG...BUT MODELS STILL HAVE A WEAK SIGNAL OF SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
LONG STORY SHORT IS COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...IF ANY AT
ALL...AND WILL KEEP OUT OF BOTH TAFS.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS MAKING A RUN INTO
THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT. WILL GET THE BALL ROLLING BY INSERTING
A TEMPO MVFR MENTION IN THE KLBB TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER
MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
-TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL BETWEEN ABOUT 20 UTC AND
03 UTC. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONT COULD PRODUCE A TEMPORARY WIND
SHIFT AT KCDS AROUND 14-15 UTC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 AM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH ISN/T SURPRISING GIVEN
THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40...AND THERE WAS EVEN AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME SWD PROGRESS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SPLNS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE
CENTRAL SPLNS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WE/LL HAVE
TO RELY ON SURFACE-BASED LIFT TO GENERATE ANY MOIST CONVECTION
TODAY. KLBB FCST SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP REMAINING FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
06 UTC HRRR AND RAP RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
THE SREF...WHICH SOMEWHAT BULLSEYES THE CAPROCK CANYONS AREA. WE
WILL RUN WITH A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF T-STORMS...CENTERED ACROSS
BRISCOE COUNTY...AND ROUGHLY EXTENDING WEST TO I-27 AND SOUTH TO
NEAR HWY 82. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT ML CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORTUNATELY WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS BACK DOWN A BIT...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THE
WEAK FRONT/S INFLUENCE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WELCOME COOLING TREND EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LONGITUDINALLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS MID/LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH DECREASING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMISE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH THIS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS CAN SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST RUN SOUTHWARD
BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT NWP
HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF DOLLY
AND A TAP OFF A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ ARE FUNNELED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED TO NORTH AND WEST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL FULLY BE ABLE TO TAP THE SUB-TROPICAL
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...THE NWP SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW
AIDED FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND /AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF OR NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/. REGARDLESS...IF THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA IT WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RESIDING SOMEWHERE LOCALLY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES
FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  67  94  66  90 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  70  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  68  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     98  72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          97  69  96  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KAMA 021722
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER AT KDHT
AND KGUY. CONFIDENCE FOR CATEGORICAL CHANGES IN CIGS THERE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT GUIDANCE AND CURRENT OBS SUGGEST KDHT WILL BE
THE LAST SITE TO SCATTER...GENERALLY BETWEEN 21-23Z. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT ALL THREE SITES AND PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS AT KAMA. THE PROSPECTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT APPEAR
LOW.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST/GRIDS TO REFLECT TRENDS WITH
THE CURRENT STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THE LATEST POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRATUS PERSISTING THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 18-20Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. NONE OF
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE GENERATING CONVECTION LATER
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS
EVENING. THUS HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LINDLEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE BEST LIFT. LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING.

AFTER TODAY...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE WHEN THE NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
THIS WAY FROM THE EAST.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AND
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GO UP. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
BROUGHT OVER THE PANHANDLES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIFT
WILL INCREASE AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WE COULD SEE A DRYING TREND BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS IT WILL BE HARD TO FORECAST
JUST WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
"COOLEST" TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE LATEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY TO FORECAST ONCE THE RAIN
SETS IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF SOME AREAS REMAIN IN THE
CLOUDS WITH RAIN ON ONE OF THOSE DAYS...THEN HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE 70S...BUT IF SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH LONG ENOUGH...IT
WILL NOT BE TOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL GET STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. FUELS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL
RANGES AS WELL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021722
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER AT KDHT
AND KGUY. CONFIDENCE FOR CATEGORICAL CHANGES IN CIGS THERE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT GUIDANCE AND CURRENT OBS SUGGEST KDHT WILL BE
THE LAST SITE TO SCATTER...GENERALLY BETWEEN 21-23Z. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT ALL THREE SITES AND PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS AT KAMA. THE PROSPECTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT APPEAR
LOW.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST/GRIDS TO REFLECT TRENDS WITH
THE CURRENT STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THE LATEST POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRATUS PERSISTING THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 18-20Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. NONE OF
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE GENERATING CONVECTION LATER
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS
EVENING. THUS HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LINDLEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE BEST LIFT. LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING.

AFTER TODAY...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE WHEN THE NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
THIS WAY FROM THE EAST.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AND
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GO UP. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
BROUGHT OVER THE PANHANDLES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIFT
WILL INCREASE AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WE COULD SEE A DRYING TREND BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS IT WILL BE HARD TO FORECAST
JUST WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
"COOLEST" TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE LATEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY TO FORECAST ONCE THE RAIN
SETS IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF SOME AREAS REMAIN IN THE
CLOUDS WITH RAIN ON ONE OF THOSE DAYS...THEN HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE 70S...BUT IF SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH LONG ENOUGH...IT
WILL NOT BE TOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL GET STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. FUELS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL
RANGES AS WELL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021722
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER AT KDHT
AND KGUY. CONFIDENCE FOR CATEGORICAL CHANGES IN CIGS THERE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT GUIDANCE AND CURRENT OBS SUGGEST KDHT WILL BE
THE LAST SITE TO SCATTER...GENERALLY BETWEEN 21-23Z. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT ALL THREE SITES AND PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS AT KAMA. THE PROSPECTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT APPEAR
LOW.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST/GRIDS TO REFLECT TRENDS WITH
THE CURRENT STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THE LATEST POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRATUS PERSISTING THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 18-20Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. NONE OF
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE GENERATING CONVECTION LATER
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS
EVENING. THUS HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LINDLEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE BEST LIFT. LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING.

AFTER TODAY...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE WHEN THE NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
THIS WAY FROM THE EAST.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AND
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GO UP. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
BROUGHT OVER THE PANHANDLES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIFT
WILL INCREASE AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WE COULD SEE A DRYING TREND BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS IT WILL BE HARD TO FORECAST
JUST WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
"COOLEST" TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE LATEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY TO FORECAST ONCE THE RAIN
SETS IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF SOME AREAS REMAIN IN THE
CLOUDS WITH RAIN ON ONE OF THOSE DAYS...THEN HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE 70S...BUT IF SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH LONG ENOUGH...IT
WILL NOT BE TOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL GET STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. FUELS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL
RANGES AS WELL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021722
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER AT KDHT
AND KGUY. CONFIDENCE FOR CATEGORICAL CHANGES IN CIGS THERE IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT GUIDANCE AND CURRENT OBS SUGGEST KDHT WILL BE
THE LAST SITE TO SCATTER...GENERALLY BETWEEN 21-23Z. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT ALL THREE SITES AND PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS AT KAMA. THE PROSPECTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT APPEAR
LOW.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST/GRIDS TO REFLECT TRENDS WITH
THE CURRENT STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THE LATEST POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRATUS PERSISTING THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 18-20Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. NONE OF
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE GENERATING CONVECTION LATER
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS
EVENING. THUS HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LINDLEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE BEST LIFT. LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING.

AFTER TODAY...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE WHEN THE NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
THIS WAY FROM THE EAST.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AND
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GO UP. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
BROUGHT OVER THE PANHANDLES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIFT
WILL INCREASE AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WE COULD SEE A DRYING TREND BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS IT WILL BE HARD TO FORECAST
JUST WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
"COOLEST" TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE LATEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY TO FORECAST ONCE THE RAIN
SETS IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF SOME AREAS REMAIN IN THE
CLOUDS WITH RAIN ON ONE OF THOSE DAYS...THEN HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE 70S...BUT IF SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH LONG ENOUGH...IT
WILL NOT BE TOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL GET STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. FUELS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL
RANGES AS WELL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10






000
FXUS64 KSJT 021718
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1218 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions through the next 12 hours with
gusty south southwest winds during the afternoon and early
evening. the return of MVFR CIGS will be likely early tomorrow
morning at KJCT, KBBD, and KSOA terminals. Low CIGS will burn off
as we approach noon tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across most West Central Texas
terminals through the period. However, we are seeing the expected
MVFR stratus developing on low cloud imagery, although remaining
pretty patchy at this point. Suspect that it will expand a little
more through sunrise, and then quickly dissipate. Even at those
locations it does effect, it will be a move in and out quickly
type of feature. Otherwise, gusty south winds through daylight
hours with just a scattered afternoon cu field developing.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another mild night ongoing across West Central Texas, with south
winds remaining strong enough to keep temperatures from dropping
very much. Readings still right around 80 degrees at 3 AM (08Z).
Models do indicate that some patchy low cloudiness will develop by
sunrise and spread northward into the area, with low cloud satellite
imagery showing some of this starting to develop across portions of
Central Texas.

Another hot day in store for the area, with the upper level ridge of
high pressure in control. The 00Z NAM showed some convection across
West Central Texas this afternoon, but the GFS is dry. Both the TTU
WRF and the HRRR both show a similar pattern, scattered sea breeze
activity pushing well inland today, but dissipating at sunset across
Central Texas. Thus, will not insert PoPs into the forecast.
After readings above the 100 degree mark at San Angelo and
Abilene, models indicate a slight cooling at 850MB today as a
little cooler and more moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico
slides into the area. Will keep afternoon highs below the 100
degree mark, but still a degree or two above guidance. Mild again
tonight as south winds keep temperatures from dropping very
quickly. Again, stayed just a little above guidance, as it has
been too cool for the last several days.

LONG TERM...

Surface temperatures fall 2 to 3 degrees F Wednesday as 850 MB
temperatures fall another 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. Tropical Storm
Dolly in the Bay of Campeche is expected to move into Mexico
early Wednesday, and may send weak disturbances/moisture
northward to affect the I-10 corridor Thursday and Friday. This
is indicated mainly by the EC model, as the GFS model is dry and
the NAM model nearly so. Will keep rain chances out of forecast
for this time period, given the uncertainty and limited agreement
in the models.

For Saturday night into Sunday, however, both the GFS and EC
modes are still indicating a weak cold front to bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast already has rain
chances in for this time period, and will maintain them.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  76  96  74  95 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  98  75  95  74  94 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  95  77  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/18








000
FXUS64 KSJT 021718
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1218 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions through the next 12 hours with
gusty south southwest winds during the afternoon and early
evening. the return of MVFR CIGS will be likely early tomorrow
morning at KJCT, KBBD, and KSOA terminals. Low CIGS will burn off
as we approach noon tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across most West Central Texas
terminals through the period. However, we are seeing the expected
MVFR stratus developing on low cloud imagery, although remaining
pretty patchy at this point. Suspect that it will expand a little
more through sunrise, and then quickly dissipate. Even at those
locations it does effect, it will be a move in and out quickly
type of feature. Otherwise, gusty south winds through daylight
hours with just a scattered afternoon cu field developing.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another mild night ongoing across West Central Texas, with south
winds remaining strong enough to keep temperatures from dropping
very much. Readings still right around 80 degrees at 3 AM (08Z).
Models do indicate that some patchy low cloudiness will develop by
sunrise and spread northward into the area, with low cloud satellite
imagery showing some of this starting to develop across portions of
Central Texas.

Another hot day in store for the area, with the upper level ridge of
high pressure in control. The 00Z NAM showed some convection across
West Central Texas this afternoon, but the GFS is dry. Both the TTU
WRF and the HRRR both show a similar pattern, scattered sea breeze
activity pushing well inland today, but dissipating at sunset across
Central Texas. Thus, will not insert PoPs into the forecast.
After readings above the 100 degree mark at San Angelo and
Abilene, models indicate a slight cooling at 850MB today as a
little cooler and more moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico
slides into the area. Will keep afternoon highs below the 100
degree mark, but still a degree or two above guidance. Mild again
tonight as south winds keep temperatures from dropping very
quickly. Again, stayed just a little above guidance, as it has
been too cool for the last several days.

LONG TERM...

Surface temperatures fall 2 to 3 degrees F Wednesday as 850 MB
temperatures fall another 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. Tropical Storm
Dolly in the Bay of Campeche is expected to move into Mexico
early Wednesday, and may send weak disturbances/moisture
northward to affect the I-10 corridor Thursday and Friday. This
is indicated mainly by the EC model, as the GFS model is dry and
the NAM model nearly so. Will keep rain chances out of forecast
for this time period, given the uncertainty and limited agreement
in the models.

For Saturday night into Sunday, however, both the GFS and EC
modes are still indicating a weak cold front to bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast already has rain
chances in for this time period, and will maintain them.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  76  96  74  95 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  98  75  95  74  94 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  95  77  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/18







000
FXUS64 KMAF 021712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. A few thunderstorms
are expected to form in the mountains this afternoon through early
this evening. These storms should remain south and west of the
terminals. There is some chance late tonight that a brief period
of MVFR ceilings may form at a few of the terminals but confidence
was no high enough at this time to include. Later shifts will need
to monitor. Winds will generally be southeast at 5 to 15 mph and
gusty at times.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Winds will primarily be out of the south to southeast through the
period.  Winds will pick up in intensity late this morning and will
remain elevated through the early evening hours.  Low clouds are
possible around 12z Wednesday for all terminals except CNM and PEQ.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Center of 5h anticyclone will be located INVOF SW NM/Far W TX
today and MSLP gradient will be tighter and farther w resulting in
stronger se winds that last longer. As such the surface trough and
associated thermal ridge will set up farther w. Consensus is that
85h temps will cool about 4C across the PB going from 31C to 27C
at MAF. Yesterday high temps where about 17F over 85h temps pointing
to a high of 98-100. However for areas farther w 85h temps will not be
much cooler and L100s will still be common in SE NM, wrn PB, Rio
Grande. Good news is that Wed/Thur 85h temps will continue to cool,
even into the M20C range in SE NM, wrn PB, Rio Grande where high
temps will fall back into the M90s/U90s. This cooler wx is in part
due to a pattern change as the 5h anticyclone develops well off to
the e and a much deeper e-se flow will be in place. In this pattern
change mid level mstr will have a chance to push into the area, at
least the Lower Trans Pecos/srn PB. As usual there are model differences
GFS/Canadian are dry and NAM12/ECMWF are more moist. Still too difficult
to make a binary decision and as such will opt to include low order
PoPs in aforementioned areas Thur/Fri. Models agree that a cold front
will mostly remain to the n into the extended forecast, with ECMWF
the outlier sagging the front into PB next Sunday with mid level
ridging in place? Seems best scenario for front to arrive this far
s would be thru convective enhancement. Mid level wly will likely
sag farther s in the Mon/Tue time frame which would allow for theta-e
ridge across the swrn states to move into at least the wrn CWFA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  71  94  70  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  76  95  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  71  98  70  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  99  78  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  71  90  71  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          98  67  90  64  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                  100  67  93  66  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   94  59  87  59  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   100  73  94  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  73  92  73  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   105  76  95  73  /  10  10  10   0

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS64 KMAF 021712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. A few thunderstorms
are expected to form in the mountains this afternoon through early
this evening. These storms should remain south and west of the
terminals. There is some chance late tonight that a brief period
of MVFR ceilings may form at a few of the terminals but confidence
was no high enough at this time to include. Later shifts will need
to monitor. Winds will generally be southeast at 5 to 15 mph and
gusty at times.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Winds will primarily be out of the south to southeast through the
period.  Winds will pick up in intensity late this morning and will
remain elevated through the early evening hours.  Low clouds are
possible around 12z Wednesday for all terminals except CNM and PEQ.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Center of 5h anticyclone will be located INVOF SW NM/Far W TX
today and MSLP gradient will be tighter and farther w resulting in
stronger se winds that last longer. As such the surface trough and
associated thermal ridge will set up farther w. Consensus is that
85h temps will cool about 4C across the PB going from 31C to 27C
at MAF. Yesterday high temps where about 17F over 85h temps pointing
to a high of 98-100. However for areas farther w 85h temps will not be
much cooler and L100s will still be common in SE NM, wrn PB, Rio
Grande. Good news is that Wed/Thur 85h temps will continue to cool,
even into the M20C range in SE NM, wrn PB, Rio Grande where high
temps will fall back into the M90s/U90s. This cooler wx is in part
due to a pattern change as the 5h anticyclone develops well off to
the e and a much deeper e-se flow will be in place. In this pattern
change mid level mstr will have a chance to push into the area, at
least the Lower Trans Pecos/srn PB. As usual there are model differences
GFS/Canadian are dry and NAM12/ECMWF are more moist. Still too difficult
to make a binary decision and as such will opt to include low order
PoPs in aforementioned areas Thur/Fri. Models agree that a cold front
will mostly remain to the n into the extended forecast, with ECMWF
the outlier sagging the front into PB next Sunday with mid level
ridging in place? Seems best scenario for front to arrive this far
s would be thru convective enhancement. Mid level wly will likely
sag farther s in the Mon/Tue time frame which would allow for theta-e
ridge across the swrn states to move into at least the wrn CWFA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  71  94  70  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  76  95  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  71  98  70  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  99  78  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  71  90  71  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          98  67  90  64  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                  100  67  93  66  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   94  59  87  59  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   100  73  94  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  73  92  73  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   105  76  95  73  /  10  10  10   0

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KBRO 021711 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. CLOUDINESS
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN TROPICAL CONVECTION. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE...BUT SPECIFIC TIMING WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE MID MORNING BEFORE THE OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVE INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AIRPORTS. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM..../NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES...MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND MARINE ISSUES ACROSS COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY.

THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES
WITH DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
/2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES/ THROUGH THE PERIOD COURTESY OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY. THE LATEST KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS
EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE OF TAMAULIPAS.

TODAY...500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY BEING FORCED TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MEXICO COASTLINE. INCREASING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR TODAY. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND
LOW LYING REGIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION BUT WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 2.3
INCHES/ AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S DUE
TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

RAINFALL...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...LOCALLY 2
TO 3 INCHES...ACROSS MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

COASTAL IMPACTS...LONG PERIOD SWELLS...GENERATED FROM TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST LATE TODAY. AS A RESULT...THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SURF
AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET TODAY AND 6 TO 9
FEET TONIGHT. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LONG PERIOD HIGH SWELLS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE RUN UP ON AREA BEACHES WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY DURING
HIGH TIDE. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...500 MB RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS WHATS LEFT OF DOLLY MOVES
FURTHER INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. THE
INCREASING RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE THE CONV POTENTIAL OVER THE RGV BUT
NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE IT. THE CONV TRENDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT BACK
TO MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN/SEA BREEZE CONV COVERAGE FOR THE LONGER
RANGE.

THE INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH DAY 7. BUT FOR NOW THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR >100 READINGS OUT WEST. THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS TEMPS IN THE
LONGER TERM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. SO WILL LIKELY GO WITH A
BLEND OF THE TWO HERE. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS
MEX MOS TEMPS/POPS IS PRETTY STABLE ALSO. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS COURTESY OF
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOY 42020
CURRENTLY REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
21 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 4.3 FEET AND A WAVE PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY DUE TO
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WELL SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH SEAS REACHING
5 TO 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE
AND 7 TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF WATERS 0 TO 60 NM EAST OF PADRE ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AFTER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HAZAROUS MARINE CONDITIONS GENERATED BY THE APPROACH OF DOLLY...
THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE STEADILY FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PGF OVER THE AREA
WEAKENS. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/64/65






000
FXUS64 KBRO 021711 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. CLOUDINESS
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN TROPICAL CONVECTION. BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE...BUT SPECIFIC TIMING WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE MID MORNING BEFORE THE OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVE INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AIRPORTS. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM..../NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES...MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND MARINE ISSUES ACROSS COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY.

THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES
WITH DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
/2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES/ THROUGH THE PERIOD COURTESY OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY. THE LATEST KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS
EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE OF TAMAULIPAS.

TODAY...500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY BEING FORCED TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MEXICO COASTLINE. INCREASING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR TODAY. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND
LOW LYING REGIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION BUT WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 2.3
INCHES/ AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S DUE
TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

RAINFALL...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...LOCALLY 2
TO 3 INCHES...ACROSS MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

COASTAL IMPACTS...LONG PERIOD SWELLS...GENERATED FROM TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST LATE TODAY. AS A RESULT...THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SURF
AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET TODAY AND 6 TO 9
FEET TONIGHT. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LONG PERIOD HIGH SWELLS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE RUN UP ON AREA BEACHES WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY DURING
HIGH TIDE. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...500 MB RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS WHATS LEFT OF DOLLY MOVES
FURTHER INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. THE
INCREASING RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE THE CONV POTENTIAL OVER THE RGV BUT
NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE IT. THE CONV TRENDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT BACK
TO MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN/SEA BREEZE CONV COVERAGE FOR THE LONGER
RANGE.

THE INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH DAY 7. BUT FOR NOW THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR >100 READINGS OUT WEST. THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS TEMPS IN THE
LONGER TERM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. SO WILL LIKELY GO WITH A
BLEND OF THE TWO HERE. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS
MEX MOS TEMPS/POPS IS PRETTY STABLE ALSO. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS COURTESY OF
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOY 42020
CURRENTLY REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
21 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 4.3 FEET AND A WAVE PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY DUE TO
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WELL SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH SEAS REACHING
5 TO 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE
AND 7 TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF WATERS 0 TO 60 NM EAST OF PADRE ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AFTER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HAZAROUS MARINE CONDITIONS GENERATED BY THE APPROACH OF DOLLY...
THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE STEADILY FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PGF OVER THE AREA
WEAKENS. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/64/65





000
FXUS64 KCRP 021650 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1150 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND AND INCREASED SWELL
PERIODS. IN ADDITION...AS LOCATIONS ALONG THE BEACH REACH HIGH
TIDE OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW.
FOR THIS...ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY
FROM PORT ARANSAS AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NATIONAL SEASHORE.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND WEBB
COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH FROM 105 TO 109F.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  78  90  78  90  /  50  30  60  30  40
VICTORIA          93  76  93  77  94  /  50  20  40  20  30
LAREDO           101  80  94  79  92  /  20  20  50  40  40
ALICE             95  77  91  76  91  /  50  20  60  30  40
ROCKPORT          91  81  90  80  88  /  50  30  50  30  40
COTULLA           99  76  94  77  92  /  20  20  40  20  40
KINGSVILLE        94  78  90  77  92  /  50  30  60  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       91  81  89  80  87  /  50  40  60  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/74...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 021650 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1150 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND AND INCREASED SWELL
PERIODS. IN ADDITION...AS LOCATIONS ALONG THE BEACH REACH HIGH
TIDE OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW.
FOR THIS...ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY
FROM PORT ARANSAS AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NATIONAL SEASHORE.

HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND WEBB
COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH FROM 105 TO 109F.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  78  90  78  90  /  50  30  60  30  40
VICTORIA          93  76  93  77  94  /  50  20  40  20  30
LAREDO           101  80  94  79  92  /  20  20  50  40  40
ALICE             95  77  91  76  91  /  50  20  60  30  40
ROCKPORT          91  81  90  80  88  /  50  30  50  30  40
COTULLA           99  76  94  77  92  /  20  20  40  20  40
KINGSVILLE        94  78  90  77  92  /  50  30  60  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       91  81  89  80  87  /  50  40  60  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/74...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KFWD 021617 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1117 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
WE WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS MOVING SOUTH BUT SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. DO EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY NEAR PARIS BY 1 PM BEFORE DYING OFF. THE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IS VERY SPOTTY AT THE
MOMENT BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD FARTHER NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATE MORNING TEMPS LOOK GOOD BUT WILL UPDATE
THE HOURLY GRIDS TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT WARMING TRENDS. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

SCATTERED STRATUS IS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH MOST OF THE STRATUS LOCATED EAST OF THE TAF SITES
AGAIN. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO GENERALLY REMAIN SCT THIS MORNING
BUT MAY BRIEFLY REPORT BKN CIGS AT TIMES THROUGH 14-15Z. THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AROUND THE KACT
AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORT ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS.
SCATTERED STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT IS NOT WORTH
A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

82/JLD


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

08Z/3AM REGIONAL RADAR DERIVED WINDS (VAD WINDS) INDICATED A 35 KT
LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH TO THE
OK/KS BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS IN PLACE ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CONTINUED TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AT THE
500 MB LEVEL...AND THE 00Z FWD RAOB SHOWED A STOUT MID-LEVEL CAP
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO TRACK AN AREA OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OVERNIGHT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPGRADED THIS ACTIVITY TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...SO WE OFFICIALLY HAVE TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WHICH WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO WATCH TODAY THAT MAY
BRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
FIRST IS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH DOLLY MOVING NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER WILL START TO BECOME
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY PROPAGATION AND MOVE SOUTH RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE. THIS IS ASSUMING THAT THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CAN
BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR ITS COLD POOL TO MOVE THIS LINE OF
STORMS IN A NEW DIRECTION THIS MORNING.

...THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH IS AN EXPLANATION OF THOSE FACTORS THAT
DICTATE STORM MOTION AND REALLY DOES NOT CONTRIBUTE TO THE
FORECAST...IT IS INCLUDED TO HELP PROVIDE INSIGHT/UNDERSTANDING
FOR THOSE INTERESTED. YOU CAN SKIP THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH TO
CONTINUE ON WITH THE FORECAST DISCUSSION...

IN A BASIC SENSE...THE MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS IS
CONTROLLED BY THE AVERAGE OF THE WINDS ALOFT...OFTEN REFERRED TO
AS THE STEERING WINDS. IN MOST CASES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SIMPLY
MOVE IN THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT ARE BLOWING.
HOWEVER THE SECOND COMPONENT TO CONSIDER IS OFTEN REFERRED TO AS
THE PROPAGATION COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION. PROPAGATION INFLUENCES
STORM MOTION BY CHANGING THE DIRECTION OF MOTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
SYSTEM IN THE DIRECTION THAT NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS IS
THE MORE COMPLICATED FACTOR TO UNDERSTAND...BUT IN GENERAL...NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO DEVELOP IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. ON A DAY LIKE TODAY...WHERE THE STEERING WINDS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIGHT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS...BUT THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IS RELATIVELY STRONG...THE PROPAGATION COMPONENT CAN
DOMINATE THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM MOVES. FOR
TODAY...THE STEERING WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND WOULD INDICATE
AN EASTERLY STORM MOTION. THIS IS WHY THE STORMS ARE JUST SORT OF
SITTING THERE ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 3 AM. HOWEVER IF THIS RESULTS
IN A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL (A COLLECTION OF RAIN COOLED AIR)
THIS COLD POOL COULD START TO SURGE SOUTH...CAUSING NEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM OUR CWA TO THE FRONT...THE WHOLE
COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD START TO MOVE SOUTH DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER...BUT WILL STILL MOVE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST DUE
TO THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT. THIS IS A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN DIRECTION
FROM WHAT STORMS HAVE BEEN DOING OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MAKES SENSE IN
THE CONTEXT OF WHAT WAS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

THE MAIN POINT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS MORNING IS: WILL
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO MOVE AS A SYSTEM?

THAT IS LARGELY UNKNOWN BECAUSE JUST LOOKING AT THE STORMS ON
RADAR IS NOT ENOUGH TO DETERMINE HOW STRONG THE COLD POOL WILL
GET...BUT THE FACT THAT THE HRRR AND THE TEXAS TECH WRF BOTH
ADVERTISE A DRAMATIC SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS
THE RED RIVER AROUND SUNRISE GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION.
WENT AHEAD AND PLACED A VERY SMALL AREA OF 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST
FROM JUST NORTH OF SHERMAN EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING
MUCH OF LAMAR COUNTY. IF THE STORMS DO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AS THESE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE...THEY WILL BE IN THEIR
DISSIPATING STAGES BY THE TIME THEY CROSS THE RED RIVER WELL
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...SO NO STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE TX GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT MID-LEVEL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY
MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MEXICO GULF COAST. THIS
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO REORIENTED POPS A BIT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IN GENERAL...THERE IS
STILL NO OBVIOUS LIFT...SO THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...AND LEFT POPS AT THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE OFF TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS SEEM TO SEND
THE DEEPER MID-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST WITH
DOLLY...SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND LEFT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST DRY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT
IN KEEPING THINGS DRY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS STILL SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE PRIMARY REASON
THAT THE FRONT MAKES IT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IS DUE TO
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK.
IF THE FRONTAL MOTION IS REALLY DEPENDENT UPON PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN LOW UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.

THE BIGGEST REASON FOR OPTIMISM IN THE FRONT MAKING IT THIS FAR
SOUTH IS OBSERVING WHAT HAPPENS TODAY. IF MCS ACTIVITY FROM THE
OK/KS BORDER ACTUALLY SURGES SOUTH THIS MORNING...IT BECOMES EASY
TO SEE HOW PERSISTENT STORMS TO OUR NORTH CAN SEND A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS UNDER WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...SO LEFT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON
SATURDAY...AND KEPT THEM BROAD BRUSHED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FRONT...ASSUMING IT MAKES IT HERE THIS
WEEKEND...WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. BECAUSE THE FRONT
DOES NOT REPRESENT A TRUE AIRMASS REPLACEMENT...THAT IS...THERE IS
NO CANADIAN/OR SIGNIFICANTLY COOL AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AND LOSE DEFINITION QUICKLY
UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. LEFT THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY AS
A RESULT.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  96  77  96 /   5   5   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  97  74  97 /  20  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             92  72  91  72  92 /  20  10   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            96  75  95  74  95 /  10   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          95  74  94  74  94 /  10   5   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  96  78  96 /   5   5   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  76  96  75  96 /  10  10   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  76  96  75  96 /  20  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  72  97  73  97 /  20  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  96  72  96 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021601
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1101 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST/GRIDS TO REFLECT TRENDS WITH
THE CURRENT STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THE LATEST POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRATUS PERSISTING THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 18-20Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. NONE OF
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE GENERATING CONVECTION LATER
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS
EVENING. THUS HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SRN TX PNHDL WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NWD TODAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME BR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. KAMA SHOULD BE THE FIRST TAF SITE TO IMPROVE...
EVENTUALLY FOLLOWED BY KDHT AND KGUY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE TO S LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU
TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP SHOULD BE ISOLD
AND REMAIN E AND S OF THE TERMINAL SITES.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE BEST LIFT. LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING.

AFTER TODAY...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE WHEN THE NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
THIS WAY FROM THE EAST.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AND
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GO UP. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
BROUGHT OVER THE PANHANDLES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIFT
WILL INCREASE AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WE COULD SEE A DRYING TREND BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS IT WILL BE HARD TO FORECAST
JUST WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
"COOLEST" TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE LATEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY TO FORECAST ONCE THE RAIN
SETS IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF SOME AREAS REMAIN IN THE
CLOUDS WITH RAIN ON ONE OF THOSE DAYS...THEN HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE 70S...BUT IF SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH LONG ENOUGH...IT
WILL NOT BE TOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL GET STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. FUELS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL
RANGES AS WELL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KAMA 021601
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1101 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST/GRIDS TO REFLECT TRENDS WITH
THE CURRENT STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THE LATEST POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRATUS PERSISTING THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 18-20Z BEFORE SCATTERING OUT OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. NONE OF
THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE GENERATING CONVECTION LATER
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS
EVENING. THUS HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SRN TX PNHDL WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NWD TODAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME BR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. KAMA SHOULD BE THE FIRST TAF SITE TO IMPROVE...
EVENTUALLY FOLLOWED BY KDHT AND KGUY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE TO S LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU
TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP SHOULD BE ISOLD
AND REMAIN E AND S OF THE TERMINAL SITES.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE BEST LIFT. LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING.

AFTER TODAY...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE WHEN THE NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
THIS WAY FROM THE EAST.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AND
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GO UP. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
BROUGHT OVER THE PANHANDLES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIFT
WILL INCREASE AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WE COULD SEE A DRYING TREND BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS IT WILL BE HARD TO FORECAST
JUST WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
"COOLEST" TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE LATEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY TO FORECAST ONCE THE RAIN
SETS IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF SOME AREAS REMAIN IN THE
CLOUDS WITH RAIN ON ONE OF THOSE DAYS...THEN HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE 70S...BUT IF SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH LONG ENOUGH...IT
WILL NOT BE TOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL GET STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. FUELS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL
RANGES AS WELL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10






000
FXUS64 KHGX 021526
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1026 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.2 INCHES AND THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY GPS MET DATA, CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 86 AND
88 DEGREES TODAY AND THIS THRESHOLD WILL BE MET EASILY. A WELL
DEVELOPED S/WV EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WHICH SERVE AS ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. UPPER LEVEL RIDING HAS
INCHED CLOSER TO SE TX WHICH WILL IMPART A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE. THE
RAP IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL THIS AFTN WHILE THE
HRRR/ARW-EAST REMAIN MORE BENIGN. THE RAP WAS OVERDONE YESTERDAY
AND DID NOT INITIALIZE ALL THAT WELL SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A HRRR/WRF
BLEND. CHANCE POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE SO NO CHANGES TO THE POP/WX
GRIDS. DID BUMP MAX T GRIDS UP A FEW DEGREES TO MATCH TRENDS/OBS.
AS FOR TS DOLLY...THE STORM WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL A BIT
EARLIER...SOMETIME THIS EVENING. THE MAIN EFFECT FOR SE TX WILL BE
INCREASING SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND A 1.0-1.5
FOOT BUMP UP IN TIDE LEVELS. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1030 AM. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA MOVING TO
THE NNW OUT OF THE GULF ARE SO FAR HAVING TROUBLE MAKING IT PAST THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP FURTHER INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. GOING WITH VCTS/TSRA FOR THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST AND
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  77  93  76  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  91  81  90 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 021526
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1026 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.2 INCHES AND THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY GPS MET DATA, CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 86 AND
88 DEGREES TODAY AND THIS THRESHOLD WILL BE MET EASILY. A WELL
DEVELOPED S/WV EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WHICH SERVE AS ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. UPPER LEVEL RIDING HAS
INCHED CLOSER TO SE TX WHICH WILL IMPART A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE. THE
RAP IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL THIS AFTN WHILE THE
HRRR/ARW-EAST REMAIN MORE BENIGN. THE RAP WAS OVERDONE YESTERDAY
AND DID NOT INITIALIZE ALL THAT WELL SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A HRRR/WRF
BLEND. CHANCE POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE SO NO CHANGES TO THE POP/WX
GRIDS. DID BUMP MAX T GRIDS UP A FEW DEGREES TO MATCH TRENDS/OBS.
AS FOR TS DOLLY...THE STORM WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL A BIT
EARLIER...SOMETIME THIS EVENING. THE MAIN EFFECT FOR SE TX WILL BE
INCREASING SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES AND A 1.0-1.5
FOOT BUMP UP IN TIDE LEVELS. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1030 AM. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA MOVING TO
THE NNW OUT OF THE GULF ARE SO FAR HAVING TROUBLE MAKING IT PAST THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP FURTHER INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. GOING WITH VCTS/TSRA FOR THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST AND
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  77  93  76  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  91  81  90 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KEWX 021354
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
854 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE
DUE TO A STRONGER FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HAVE ADDED POPS TO
INCLUDE THESE AREAS FOR TODAY AND BOOSTED SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...BKN STRATUS PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DRT-HDO LINE. VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 16Z AT MOST
LOCATIONS. INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE SHRAS/TSTMS
COULD APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR 20Z-01Z. AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE
MENTION IN SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS DUE TO COVERAGE. SE WINDS 5-10 THIS
MORNING INCREASING 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM THE WRN GULF
INTO MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE NHC DEFINED SURFACE POSITION AND
TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWS A GOOD
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY CONCENTRATING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TODAY. FARTHER NORTH HIGH HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. A STUBBORN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX IS STILL
LIKELY TO HOLD OF A DEEP INTRUSION OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TODAY...BUT COULD SET UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
GOOD RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DEEP SURFACE TO 500 HPA
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR DRT. WILL FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF
GUIDANCE OVER THE DRIER GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AUSTIN METRO
AREA AND POINTS NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE OUT FRINGE OF
THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM A FEW TRAINING CELLS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO NOT PRESENT A CONCERN FOR RUNOFF.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY OVER MAINLY THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRIER. THE
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK OF DOLLY EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL SHOULD
LEAVE ONLY REMNANT MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO TX...SO THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VORTICITY TO HELP CONCENTRATE RAIN CHANCES.
THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POP DAYS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES COULD KEEP A FEW
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE
RESILIENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO EXTEND
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS NOT SHOWN TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE CENTRAL TX RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO AGREE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO POSSIBLY MODIFY THE HEAT
WAVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76  97  76  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  73  97  74  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  74  97  74  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  74  95  74  95 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  77  95  75  93 /  -   -   30  20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  75  96  76  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  73  95  73  94 /  20  20  30  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  95  75  95 /  20  20  30  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  97  76  96 /  30  20  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  77  96  77  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  76  96  76  96 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 021354
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
854 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE
DUE TO A STRONGER FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HAVE ADDED POPS TO
INCLUDE THESE AREAS FOR TODAY AND BOOSTED SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...BKN STRATUS PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DRT-HDO LINE. VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 16Z AT MOST
LOCATIONS. INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE SHRAS/TSTMS
COULD APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR 20Z-01Z. AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE
MENTION IN SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS DUE TO COVERAGE. SE WINDS 5-10 THIS
MORNING INCREASING 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM THE WRN GULF
INTO MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE NHC DEFINED SURFACE POSITION AND
TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWS A GOOD
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY CONCENTRATING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TODAY. FARTHER NORTH HIGH HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. A STUBBORN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX IS STILL
LIKELY TO HOLD OF A DEEP INTRUSION OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TODAY...BUT COULD SET UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
GOOD RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DEEP SURFACE TO 500 HPA
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR DRT. WILL FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF
GUIDANCE OVER THE DRIER GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AUSTIN METRO
AREA AND POINTS NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE OUT FRINGE OF
THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM A FEW TRAINING CELLS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO NOT PRESENT A CONCERN FOR RUNOFF.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY OVER MAINLY THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRIER. THE
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK OF DOLLY EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL SHOULD
LEAVE ONLY REMNANT MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO TX...SO THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VORTICITY TO HELP CONCENTRATE RAIN CHANCES.
THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POP DAYS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES COULD KEEP A FEW
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE
RESILIENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO EXTEND
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS NOT SHOWN TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE CENTRAL TX RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO AGREE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO POSSIBLY MODIFY THE HEAT
WAVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76  97  76  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  73  97  74  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  74  97  74  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  74  95  74  95 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  77  95  75  93 /  -   -   30  20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  75  96  76  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  73  95  73  94 /  20  20  30  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  95  75  95 /  20  20  30  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  97  76  96 /  30  20  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  77  96  77  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  76  96  76  96 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 021354
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
854 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE
DUE TO A STRONGER FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HAVE ADDED POPS TO
INCLUDE THESE AREAS FOR TODAY AND BOOSTED SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...BKN STRATUS PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DRT-HDO LINE. VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 16Z AT MOST
LOCATIONS. INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE SHRAS/TSTMS
COULD APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR 20Z-01Z. AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE
MENTION IN SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS DUE TO COVERAGE. SE WINDS 5-10 THIS
MORNING INCREASING 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM THE WRN GULF
INTO MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE NHC DEFINED SURFACE POSITION AND
TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWS A GOOD
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY CONCENTRATING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TODAY. FARTHER NORTH HIGH HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. A STUBBORN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX IS STILL
LIKELY TO HOLD OF A DEEP INTRUSION OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TODAY...BUT COULD SET UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
GOOD RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DEEP SURFACE TO 500 HPA
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR DRT. WILL FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF
GUIDANCE OVER THE DRIER GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AUSTIN METRO
AREA AND POINTS NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE OUT FRINGE OF
THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM A FEW TRAINING CELLS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO NOT PRESENT A CONCERN FOR RUNOFF.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY OVER MAINLY THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRIER. THE
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK OF DOLLY EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL SHOULD
LEAVE ONLY REMNANT MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO TX...SO THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VORTICITY TO HELP CONCENTRATE RAIN CHANCES.
THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POP DAYS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES COULD KEEP A FEW
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE
RESILIENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO EXTEND
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS NOT SHOWN TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE CENTRAL TX RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO AGREE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO POSSIBLY MODIFY THE HEAT
WAVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76  97  76  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  73  97  74  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  74  97  74  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  74  95  74  95 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  77  95  75  93 /  -   -   30  20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  75  96  76  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  73  95  73  94 /  20  20  30  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  95  75  95 /  20  20  30  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  97  76  96 /  30  20  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  77  96  77  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  76  96  76  96 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KEWX 021354
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
854 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE
DUE TO A STRONGER FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HAVE ADDED POPS TO
INCLUDE THESE AREAS FOR TODAY AND BOOSTED SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS NEAR
THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...BKN STRATUS PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DRT-HDO LINE. VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 16Z AT MOST
LOCATIONS. INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE SHRAS/TSTMS
COULD APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR 20Z-01Z. AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE
MENTION IN SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS DUE TO COVERAGE. SE WINDS 5-10 THIS
MORNING INCREASING 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM THE WRN GULF
INTO MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE NHC DEFINED SURFACE POSITION AND
TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWS A GOOD
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY CONCENTRATING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TODAY. FARTHER NORTH HIGH HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. A STUBBORN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX IS STILL
LIKELY TO HOLD OF A DEEP INTRUSION OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TODAY...BUT COULD SET UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
GOOD RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DEEP SURFACE TO 500 HPA
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR DRT. WILL FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF
GUIDANCE OVER THE DRIER GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AUSTIN METRO
AREA AND POINTS NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE OUT FRINGE OF
THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM A FEW TRAINING CELLS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO NOT PRESENT A CONCERN FOR RUNOFF.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY OVER MAINLY THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRIER. THE
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK OF DOLLY EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL SHOULD
LEAVE ONLY REMNANT MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO TX...SO THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VORTICITY TO HELP CONCENTRATE RAIN CHANCES.
THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POP DAYS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES COULD KEEP A FEW
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE
RESILIENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO EXTEND
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS NOT SHOWN TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE CENTRAL TX RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO AGREE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO POSSIBLY MODIFY THE HEAT
WAVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76  97  76  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  73  97  74  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  74  97  74  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  74  95  74  95 /  20  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  77  95  75  93 /  -   -   30  20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  75  96  76  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  73  95  73  94 /  20  20  30  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  95  75  95 /  20  20  30  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  97  76  96 /  30  20  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  77  96  77  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  76  96  76  96 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021206 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
706 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE MID MORNING BEFORE THE OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVE INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AIRPORTS. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM..../NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES...MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND MARINE ISSUES ACROSS COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY.

THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES
WITH DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
/2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES/ THROUGH THE PERIOD COURTESY OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY. THE LATEST KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS
EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE OF TAMAULIPAS.

TODAY...500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY BEING FORCED TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MEXICO COASTLINE. INCREASING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR TODAY. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND
LOW LYING REGIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION BUT WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 2.3
INCHES/ AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S DUE
TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

RAINFALL...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...LOCALLY 2
TO 3 INCHES...ACROSS MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

COASTAL IMPACTS...LONG PERIOD SWELLS...GENERATED FROM TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST LATE TODAY. AS A RESULT...THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SURF
AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET TODAY AND 6 TO 9
FEET TONIGHT. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LONG PERIOD HIGH SWELLS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE RUN UP ON AREA BEACHES WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY DURING
HIGH TIDE. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...500 MB RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS WHATS LEFT OF DOLLY MOVES
FURTHER INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. THE
INCREASING RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE THE CONV POTENTIAL OVER THE RGV BUT
NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE IT. THE CONV TRENDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT BACK
TO MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN/SEA BREEZE CONV COVERAGE FOR THE LONGER
RANGE.

THE INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH DAY 7. BUT FOR NOW THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR >100 READINGS OUT WEST. THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS TEMPS IN THE
LONGER TERM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. SO WILL LIKELY GO WITH A
BLEND OF THE TWO HERE. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS
MEX MOS TEMPS/POPS IS PRETTY STABLE ALSO. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS COURTESY OF
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOY 42020
CURRENTLY REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
21 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 4.3 FEET AND A WAVE PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY DUE TO
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WELL SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH SEAS REACHING
5 TO 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE
AND 7 TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF WATERS 0 TO 60 NM EAST OF PADRE ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AFTER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HAZAROUS MARINE CONDITIONS GENERATED BY THE APPROACH OF DOLLY...
THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE STEADILY FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PGF OVER THE AREA
WEAKENS. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 021206 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
706 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE MID MORNING BEFORE THE OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVE INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AIRPORTS. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM..../NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES...MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND MARINE ISSUES ACROSS COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY.

THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES
WITH DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
/2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES/ THROUGH THE PERIOD COURTESY OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY. THE LATEST KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS
EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE OF TAMAULIPAS.

TODAY...500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY BEING FORCED TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MEXICO COASTLINE. INCREASING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR TODAY. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND
LOW LYING REGIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION BUT WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 2.3
INCHES/ AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S DUE
TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

RAINFALL...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...LOCALLY 2
TO 3 INCHES...ACROSS MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

COASTAL IMPACTS...LONG PERIOD SWELLS...GENERATED FROM TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST LATE TODAY. AS A RESULT...THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SURF
AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET TODAY AND 6 TO 9
FEET TONIGHT. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LONG PERIOD HIGH SWELLS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE RUN UP ON AREA BEACHES WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY DURING
HIGH TIDE. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...500 MB RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS WHATS LEFT OF DOLLY MOVES
FURTHER INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. THE
INCREASING RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE THE CONV POTENTIAL OVER THE RGV BUT
NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE IT. THE CONV TRENDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT BACK
TO MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN/SEA BREEZE CONV COVERAGE FOR THE LONGER
RANGE.

THE INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH DAY 7. BUT FOR NOW THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR >100 READINGS OUT WEST. THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS TEMPS IN THE
LONGER TERM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. SO WILL LIKELY GO WITH A
BLEND OF THE TWO HERE. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS
MEX MOS TEMPS/POPS IS PRETTY STABLE ALSO. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS COURTESY OF
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOY 42020
CURRENTLY REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
21 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 4.3 FEET AND A WAVE PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY DUE TO
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WELL SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH SEAS REACHING
5 TO 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE
AND 7 TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF WATERS 0 TO 60 NM EAST OF PADRE ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AFTER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HAZAROUS MARINE CONDITIONS GENERATED BY THE APPROACH OF DOLLY...
THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE STEADILY FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PGF OVER THE AREA
WEAKENS. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021149 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SRN TX PNHDL WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NWD TODAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME BR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. KAMA SHOULD BE THE FIRST TAF SITE TO IMPROVE...
EVENTUALLY FOLLOWED BY KDHT AND KGUY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE TO S LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU
TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP SHOULD BE ISOLD
AND REMAIN E AND S OF THE TERMINAL SITES.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE BEST LIFT. LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING.

AFTER TODAY...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE WHEN THE NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
THIS WAY FROM THE EAST.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AND
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GO UP. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
BROUGHT OVER THE PANHANDLES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIFT
WILL INCREASE AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WE COULD SEE A DRYING TREND BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS IT WILL BE HARD TO FORECAST
JUST WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
"COOLEST" TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE LATEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY TO FORECAST ONCE THE RAIN
SETS IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF SOME AREAS REMAIN IN THE
CLOUDS WITH RAIN ON ONE OF THOSE DAYS...THEN HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE 70S...BUT IF SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH LONG ENOUGH...IT
WILL NOT BE TOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL GET STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. FUELS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL
RANGES AS WELL.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLUB 021139
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
639 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER
MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
-TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL BETWEEN ABOUT 20 UTC AND
03 UTC. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONT COULD PRODUCE A TEMPORARY WIND
SHIFT AT KCDS AROUND 14-15 UTC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 AM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH ISN/T SURPRISING GIVEN
THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40...AND THERE WAS EVEN AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME SWD PROGRESS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SPLNS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE
CENTRAL SPLNS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WE/LL HAVE
TO RELY ON SURFACE-BASED LIFT TO GENERATE ANY MOIST CONVECTION
TODAY. KLBB FCST SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP REMAINING FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
06 UTC HRRR AND RAP RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
THE SREF...WHICH SOMEWHAT BULLSEYES THE CAPROCK CANYONS AREA. WE
WILL RUN WITH A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF T-STORMS...CENTERED ACROSS
BRISCOE COUNTY...AND ROUGHLY EXTENDING WEST TO I-27 AND SOUTH TO
NEAR HWY 82. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT ML CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORTUNATELY WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS BACK DOWN A BIT...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THE
WEAK FRONT/S INFLUENCE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WELCOME COOLING TREND EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LONGITUDINALLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS MID/LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH DECREASING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMISE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH THIS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS CAN SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST RUN SOUTHWARD
BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT NWP
HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF DOLLY
AND A TAP OFF A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ ARE FUNNELED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED TO NORTH AND WEST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL FULLY BE ABLE TO TAP THE SUB-TROPICAL
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...THE NWP SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW
AIDED FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND /AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF OR NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/. REGARDLESS...IF THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA IT WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RESIDING SOMEWHERE LOCALLY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES
FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  67  94  66  90 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  70  93  69  91 /  10  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   97  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  68  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     98  72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          97  69  96  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 021139
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
639 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER
MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
-TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL BETWEEN ABOUT 20 UTC AND
03 UTC. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONT COULD PRODUCE A TEMPORARY WIND
SHIFT AT KCDS AROUND 14-15 UTC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 AM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH ISN/T SURPRISING GIVEN
THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40...AND THERE WAS EVEN AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME SWD PROGRESS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SPLNS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE
CENTRAL SPLNS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WE/LL HAVE
TO RELY ON SURFACE-BASED LIFT TO GENERATE ANY MOIST CONVECTION
TODAY. KLBB FCST SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP REMAINING FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
06 UTC HRRR AND RAP RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
THE SREF...WHICH SOMEWHAT BULLSEYES THE CAPROCK CANYONS AREA. WE
WILL RUN WITH A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF T-STORMS...CENTERED ACROSS
BRISCOE COUNTY...AND ROUGHLY EXTENDING WEST TO I-27 AND SOUTH TO
NEAR HWY 82. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT ML CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORTUNATELY WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS BACK DOWN A BIT...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THE
WEAK FRONT/S INFLUENCE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WELCOME COOLING TREND EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LONGITUDINALLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS MID/LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH DECREASING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMISE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH THIS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS CAN SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST RUN SOUTHWARD
BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT NWP
HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF DOLLY
AND A TAP OFF A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ ARE FUNNELED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED TO NORTH AND WEST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL FULLY BE ABLE TO TAP THE SUB-TROPICAL
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...THE NWP SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW
AIDED FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND /AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF OR NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/. REGARDLESS...IF THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA IT WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RESIDING SOMEWHERE LOCALLY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES
FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  67  94  66  90 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  70  93  69  91 /  10  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   97  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  68  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     98  72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          97  69  96  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33





000
FXUS64 KCRP 021134
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS STRATUS HAS MAINLY
BEEN LIMITED TO REGION FROM HEBBRONVILLE NORTH TO PLEASANTON AND
NEAR LAREDO. COULD STILL SEE SOME LOWER STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
AFFECT COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z. THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL AREA ALTER THIS MORNING. KCRP RADAR
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND LATER THIS
MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND AND TO THE NORTH THROUGH LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS BUT IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. EXPECT
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT LRD AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS MOVING BACK INTO THE CRP AREA BY 03-06Z WEDNESDAY. THE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL REACH THE INLAND TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z.
DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND BY
08Z COULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE NORTH OF TROPICAL
STORM DOLLY...THAT HAS FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...MOVING
INTO THE GULF WATERS. VALUES ARE RANGE FROM 2 TO 2.25 INCHES AND
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MODELS MOVING THIS WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WHILE MODELS SHOW A
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE COAST. SO EXPECT
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED AND KEPT WITH POPS THAT
ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY HAS SYSTEM MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST MEXICO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWEST THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY BETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. LEANED
TOWARD COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REGION AS TROPICAL STORM DOLLY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS INCREASING SWELLS THAT
ADVANCE NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA FROM TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. SCA IS
IN EFFECT FROM 21Z TODAY UNTIL 21Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS
COULD MAKE FOR ROUGHER MARINE CONDITIONS ALSO. SCATTERED CONVECTION
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ON WEDNESDAY.

TIDES (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...INCREASING SWELLS WITH HIGHER
PERIODS...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL ADVANCE TOWARD
THE COAST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE GULF FACING BEACHES TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TIDES ARE RUNNING FROM 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS...COULD
SEE TIDE LEVELS INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 2 FEET MSL...ESPECIALLY FOR
BEACHES SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT DETERMINE IF
ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHT FIELD WHICH MOVES AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR
THE WRN CWA EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A PREDOMINATE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THUS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF MSTR/UPPER
DYNAMICS TO RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION. AFTERWARD...MSTR WL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. YET EXPECT MSTR TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR (AND GFS DETERMINISTIC CIN/CAPE PATTERNS CONSISTENT
WITH) A RETURN TO DIURNAL/NOCTURAL CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION FRIDAY-SUNDAY YET ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY
MONDAY. AT LEAST A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS APPROACHING 100F OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SUNDAY OWING TO DRIER CONDITIONS. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100F OR LESS OVR THE CWA DRG THE AFTN HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  78  90  78  90  /  50  30  60  30  40
VICTORIA          93  76  93  77  94  /  50  20  40  20  30
LAREDO           101  80  94  79  92  /  20  20  50  40  40
ALICE             95  77  91  76  91  /  50  20  60  30  40
ROCKPORT          91  81  90  80  88  /  50  30  50  30  40
COTULLA           99  76  94  77  92  /  20  20  40  20  40
KINGSVILLE        94  78  90  77  92  /  50  30  60  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       91  81  89  80  87  /  50  40  60  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 021134
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS STRATUS HAS MAINLY
BEEN LIMITED TO REGION FROM HEBBRONVILLE NORTH TO PLEASANTON AND
NEAR LAREDO. COULD STILL SEE SOME LOWER STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
AFFECT COASTAL TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z. THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. THIS
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL AREA ALTER THIS MORNING. KCRP RADAR
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND LATER THIS
MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND AND TO THE NORTH THROUGH LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS BUT IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. EXPECT
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT LRD AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS MOVING BACK INTO THE CRP AREA BY 03-06Z WEDNESDAY. THE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL REACH THE INLAND TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z.
DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND BY
08Z COULD LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE NORTH OF TROPICAL
STORM DOLLY...THAT HAS FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...MOVING
INTO THE GULF WATERS. VALUES ARE RANGE FROM 2 TO 2.25 INCHES AND
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MODELS MOVING THIS WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WHILE MODELS SHOW A
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE COAST. SO EXPECT
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED AND KEPT WITH POPS THAT
ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY HAS SYSTEM MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST MEXICO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWEST THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY BETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. LEANED
TOWARD COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REGION AS TROPICAL STORM DOLLY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS INCREASING SWELLS THAT
ADVANCE NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA FROM TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. SCA IS
IN EFFECT FROM 21Z TODAY UNTIL 21Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS
COULD MAKE FOR ROUGHER MARINE CONDITIONS ALSO. SCATTERED CONVECTION
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ON WEDNESDAY.

TIDES (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...INCREASING SWELLS WITH HIGHER
PERIODS...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL ADVANCE TOWARD
THE COAST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE GULF FACING BEACHES TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TIDES ARE RUNNING FROM 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS...COULD
SEE TIDE LEVELS INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 2 FEET MSL...ESPECIALLY FOR
BEACHES SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT DETERMINE IF
ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHT FIELD WHICH MOVES AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR
THE WRN CWA EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A PREDOMINATE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THUS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF MSTR/UPPER
DYNAMICS TO RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION. AFTERWARD...MSTR WL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. YET EXPECT MSTR TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR (AND GFS DETERMINISTIC CIN/CAPE PATTERNS CONSISTENT
WITH) A RETURN TO DIURNAL/NOCTURAL CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION FRIDAY-SUNDAY YET ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY
MONDAY. AT LEAST A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS APPROACHING 100F OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SUNDAY OWING TO DRIER CONDITIONS. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100F OR LESS OVR THE CWA DRG THE AFTN HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  78  90  78  90  /  50  30  60  30  40
VICTORIA          93  76  93  77  94  /  50  20  40  20  30
LAREDO           101  80  94  79  92  /  20  20  50  40  40
ALICE             95  77  91  76  91  /  50  20  60  30  40
ROCKPORT          91  81  90  80  88  /  50  30  50  30  40
COTULLA           99  76  94  77  92  /  20  20  40  20  40
KINGSVILLE        94  78  90  77  92  /  50  30  60  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       91  81  89  80  87  /  50  40  60  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KHGX 021129
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA MOVING TO
THE NNW OUT OF THE GULF ARE SO FAR HAVING TROUBLE MAKING IT PAST THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP FURTHER INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. GOING WITH VCTS/TSRA FOR THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST AND
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  77  93  76  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42



000
FXUS64 KHGX 021129
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA MOVING TO
THE NNW OUT OF THE GULF ARE SO FAR HAVING TROUBLE MAKING IT PAST THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP FURTHER INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. GOING WITH VCTS/TSRA FOR THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST AND
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  77  93  76  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KSJT 021128
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
627 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across most West Central Texas
terminals through the period. However, we are seeing the expected
MVFR stratus developing on low cloud imagery, although remaining
pretty patchy at this point. Suspect that it will expand a little
more through sunrise, and then quickly dissipate. Even at those
locations it does effect, it will be a move in and out quickly
type of feature. Otherwise, gusty south winds through daylight
hours with just a scattered afternoon cu field developing.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another mild night ongoing across West Central Texas, with south
winds remaining strong enough to keep temperatures from dropping
very much. Readings still right around 80 degrees at 3 AM (08Z).
Models do indicate that some patchy low cloudiness will develop by
sunrise and spread northward into the area, with low cloud satellite
imagery showing some of this starting to develop across portions of
Central Texas.

Another hot day in store for the area, with the upper level ridge of
high pressure in control. The 00Z NAM showed some convection across
West Central Texas this afternoon, but the GFS is dry. Both the TTU
WRF and the HRRR both show a similar pattern, scattered sea breeze
activity pushing well inland today, but dissipating at sunset across
Central Texas. Thus, will not insert PoPs into the forecast.
After readings above the 100 degree mark at San Angelo and
Abilene, models indicate a slight cooling at 850MB today as a
little cooler and more moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico
slides into the area. Will keep afternoon highs below the 100
degree mark, but still a degree or two above guidance. Mild again
tonight as south winds keep temperatures from dropping very
quickly. Again, stayed just a little above guidance, as it has
been too cool for the last several days.

LONG TERM...

Surface temperatures fall 2 to 3 degrees F Wednesday as 850 MB
temperatures fall another 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. Tropical Storm
Dolly in the Bay of Campeche is expected to move into Mexico
early Wednesday, and may send weak disturbances/moisture
northward to affect the I-10 corridor Thursday and Friday. This
is indicated mainly by the EC model, as the GFS model is dry and
the NAM model nearly so. Will keep rain chances out of forecast
for this time period, given the uncertainty and limited agreement
in the models.

For Saturday night into Sunday, however, both the GFS and EC
modes are still indicating a weak cold front to bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast already has rain
chances in for this time period, and will maintain them.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  76  96  74  95 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  98  75  95  74  94 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  95  77  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07








000
FXUS64 KFWD 021126 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

SCATTERED STRATUS IS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH MOST OF THE STRATUS LOCATED EAST OF THE TAF SITES
AGAIN. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO GENERALLY REMAIN SCT THIS MORNING
BUT MAY BRIEFLY REPORT BKN CIGS AT TIMES THROUGH 14-15Z. THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AROUND THE KACT
AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORT ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS.
SCATTERED STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT IS NOT WORTH
A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

82/JLD

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

08Z/3AM REGIONAL RADAR DERIVED WINDS (VAD WINDS) INDICATED A 35 KT
LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH TO THE
OK/KS BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS IN PLACE ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CONTINUED TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AT THE
500 MB LEVEL...AND THE 00Z FWD RAOB SHOWED A STOUT MID-LEVEL CAP
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO TRACK AN AREA OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OVERNIGHT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPGRADED THIS ACTIVITY TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...SO WE OFFICIALLY HAVE TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WHICH WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO WATCH TODAY THAT MAY
BRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
FIRST IS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH DOLLY MOVING NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER WILL START TO BECOME
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY PROPAGATION AND MOVE SOUTH RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE. THIS IS ASSUMING THAT THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CAN
BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR ITS COLD POOL TO MOVE THIS LINE OF
STORMS IN A NEW DIRECTION THIS MORNING.

...THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH IS AN EXPLANATION OF THOSE FACTORS THAT
DICTATE STORM MOTION AND REALLY DOES NOT CONTRIBUTE TO THE
FORECAST...IT IS INCLUDED TO HELP PROVIDE INSIGHT/UNDERSTANDING
FOR THOSE INTERESTED. YOU CAN SKIP THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH TO
CONTINUE ON WITH THE FORECAST DISCUSSION...

IN A BASIC SENSE...THE MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS IS
CONTROLLED BY THE AVERAGE OF THE WINDS ALOFT...OFTEN REFERRED TO
AS THE STEERING WINDS. IN MOST CASES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SIMPLY
MOVE IN THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT ARE BLOWING.
HOWEVER THE SECOND COMPONENT TO CONSIDER IS OFTEN REFERRED TO AS
THE PROPAGATION COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION. PROPAGATION INFLUENCES
STORM MOTION BY CHANGING THE DIRECTION OF MOTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
SYSTEM IN THE DIRECTION THAT NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS IS
THE MORE COMPLICATED FACTOR TO UNDERSTAND...BUT IN GENERAL...NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO DEVELOP IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. ON A DAY LIKE TODAY...WHERE THE STEERING WINDS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIGHT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS...BUT THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IS RELATIVELY STRONG...THE PROPAGATION COMPONENT CAN
DOMINATE THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM MOVES. FOR
TODAY...THE STEERING WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND WOULD INDICATE
AN EASTERLY STORM MOTION. THIS IS WHY THE STORMS ARE JUST SORT OF
SITTING THERE ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 3 AM. HOWEVER IF THIS RESULTS
IN A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL (A COLLECTION OF RAIN COOLED AIR)
THIS COLD POOL COULD START TO SURGE SOUTH...CAUSING NEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM OUR CWA TO THE FRONT...THE WHOLE
COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD START TO MOVE SOUTH DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER...BUT WILL STILL MOVE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST DUE
TO THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT. THIS IS A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN DIRECTION
FROM WHAT STORMS HAVE BEEN DOING OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MAKES SENSE IN
THE CONTEXT OF WHAT WAS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

THE MAIN POINT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS MORNING IS: WILL
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO MOVE AS A SYSTEM?

THAT IS LARGELY UNKNOWN BECAUSE JUST LOOKING AT THE STORMS ON
RADAR IS NOT ENOUGH TO DETERMINE HOW STRONG THE COLD POOL WILL
GET...BUT THE FACT THAT THE HRRR AND THE TEXAS TECH WRF BOTH
ADVERTISE A DRAMATIC SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS
THE RED RIVER AROUND SUNRISE GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION.
WENT AHEAD AND PLACED A VERY SMALL AREA OF 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST
FROM JUST NORTH OF SHERMAN EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING
MUCH OF LAMAR COUNTY. IF THE STORMS DO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AS THESE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE...THEY WILL BE IN THEIR
DISSIPATING STAGES BY THE TIME THEY CROSS THE RED RIVER WELL
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...SO NO STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE TX GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT MID-LEVEL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY
MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MEXICO GULF COAST. THIS
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO REORIENTED POPS A BIT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IN GENERAL...THERE IS
STILL NO OBVIOUS LIFT...SO THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...AND LEFT POPS AT THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE OFF TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS SEEM TO SEND
THE DEEPER MID-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST WITH
DOLLY...SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND LEFT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST DRY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT
IN KEEPING THINGS DRY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS STILL SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE PRIMARY REASON
THAT THE FRONT MAKES IT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IS DUE TO
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK.
IF THE FRONTAL MOTION IS REALLY DEPENDENT UPON PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN LOW UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.

THE BIGGEST REASON FOR OPTIMISM IN THE FRONT MAKING IT THIS FAR
SOUTH IS OBSERVING WHAT HAPPENS TODAY. IF MCS ACTIVITY FROM THE
OK/KS BORDER ACTUALLY SURGES SOUTH THIS MORNING...IT BECOMES EASY
TO SEE HOW PERSISTENT STORMS TO OUR NORTH CAN SEND A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS UNDER WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...SO LEFT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON
SATURDAY...AND KEPT THEM BROAD BRUSHED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FRONT...ASSUMING IT MAKES IT HERE THIS
WEEKEND...WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. BECAUSE THE FRONT
DOES NOT REPRESENT A TRUE AIRMASS REPLACEMENT...THAT IS...THERE IS
NO CANADIAN/OR SIGNIFICANTLY COOL AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AND LOSE DEFINITION QUICKLY
UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. LEFT THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY AS
A RESULT.

CAVANAUGH


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  96  77  96 /   5   5   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  97  74  97 /  20  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             92  72  91  72  92 /  20  10   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            96  75  95  74  95 /  10   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          95  74  94  74  94 /  10   5   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  96  78  96 /   5   5   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  76  96  75  96 /  10  10   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  76  96  75  96 /  20  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  72  97  73  97 /  20  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  96  72  96 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/69






000
FXUS64 KEWX 021121
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
621 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN STRATUS PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DRT-HDO LINE. VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 16Z AT MOST
LOCATIONS. INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE SHRAS/TSTMS
COULD APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR 20Z-01Z. AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE
MENTION IN SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS DUE TO COVERAGE. SE WINDS 5-10 THIS
MORNING INCREASING 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM THE WRN GULF
INTO MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE NHC DEFINED SURFACE POSITION AND
TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWS A GOOD
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY CONCENTRATING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TODAY. FARTHER NORTH HIGH HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. A STUBBORN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX IS STILL
LIKELY TO HOLD OF A DEEP INTRUSION OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TODAY...BUT COULD SET UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
GOOD RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DEEP SURFACE TO 500 HPA
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR DRT. WILL FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF
GUIDANCE OVER THE DRIER GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AUSTIN METRO
AREA AND POINTS NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE OUT FRINGE OF
THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM A FEW TRAINING CELLS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO NOT PRESENT A CONCERN FOR RUNOFF.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY OVER MAINLY THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRIER. THE
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK OF DOLLY EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL SHOULD
LEAVE ONLY REMNANT MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO TX...SO THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VORTICITY TO HELP CONCENTRATE RAIN CHANCES.
THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POP DAYS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES COULD KEEP A FEW
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE
RESILIENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO EXTEND
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS NOT SHOWN TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE CENTRAL TX RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO AGREE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO POSSIBLY MODIFY THE HEAT
WAVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76  97  76  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  73  97  74  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  74  97  74  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  74  95  74  95 /  10  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  77  95  75  93 /  -   -   30  20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  75  96  76  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  73  95  73  94 /  10  20  30  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  95  75  95 /  20  20  30  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  97  76  96 /  30  20  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  30  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  76  96  76  96 /  10  20  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18






000
FXUS64 KEWX 021121
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
621 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN STRATUS PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG AND NORTH OF A
DRT-HDO LINE. VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 16Z AT MOST
LOCATIONS. INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE SHRAS/TSTMS
COULD APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR 20Z-01Z. AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE
MENTION IN SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS DUE TO COVERAGE. SE WINDS 5-10 THIS
MORNING INCREASING 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM THE WRN GULF
INTO MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE NHC DEFINED SURFACE POSITION AND
TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWS A GOOD
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY CONCENTRATING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TODAY. FARTHER NORTH HIGH HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. A STUBBORN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX IS STILL
LIKELY TO HOLD OF A DEEP INTRUSION OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TODAY...BUT COULD SET UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
GOOD RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DEEP SURFACE TO 500 HPA
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR DRT. WILL FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF
GUIDANCE OVER THE DRIER GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AUSTIN METRO
AREA AND POINTS NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE OUT FRINGE OF
THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM A FEW TRAINING CELLS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO NOT PRESENT A CONCERN FOR RUNOFF.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY OVER MAINLY THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRIER. THE
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK OF DOLLY EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL SHOULD
LEAVE ONLY REMNANT MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO TX...SO THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VORTICITY TO HELP CONCENTRATE RAIN CHANCES.
THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POP DAYS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES COULD KEEP A FEW
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE
RESILIENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO EXTEND
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS NOT SHOWN TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE CENTRAL TX RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO AGREE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO POSSIBLY MODIFY THE HEAT
WAVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76  97  76  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  73  97  74  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  74  97  74  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  74  95  74  95 /  10  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  77  95  75  93 /  -   -   30  20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  75  96  76  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  73  95  73  94 /  10  20  30  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  95  75  95 /  20  20  30  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  97  76  96 /  30  20  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  30  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  76  96  76  96 /  10  20  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18





000
FXUS64 KMAF 021109
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
558 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will primarily be out of the south to southeast through the
period.  Winds will pick up in intensity late this morning and will
remain elevated through the early evening hours.  Low clouds are
possible around 12z Wednesday for all terminals except CNM and PEQ.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Center of 5h anticyclone will be located INVOF SW NM/Far W TX
today and MSLP gradient will be tighter and farther w resulting in
stronger se winds that last longer. As such the surface trough and
associated thermal ridge will set up farther w. Consensus is that
85h temps will cool about 4C across the PB going from 31C to 27C
at MAF. Yesterday high temps where about 17F over 85h temps pointing
to a high of 98-100. However for areas farther w 85h temps will not be
much cooler and L100s will still be common in SE NM, wrn PB, Rio
Grande. Good news is that Wed/Thur 85h temps will continue to cool,
even into the M20C range in SE NM, wrn PB, Rio Grande where high
temps will fall back into the M90s/U90s. This cooler wx is in part
due to a pattern change as the 5h anticyclone develops well off to
the e and a much deeper e-se flow will be in place. In this pattern
change mid level mstr will have a chance to push into the area, at
least the Lower Trans Pecos/srn PB. As usual there are model differences
GFS/Canadian are dry and NAM12/ECMWF are more moist. Still too difficult
to make a binary decision and as such will opt to include low order
PoPs in aforementioned areas Thur/Fri. Models agree that a cold front
will mostly remain to the n into the extended forecast, with ECMWF
the outlier sagging the front into PB next Sunday with mid level
ridging in place? Seems best scenario for front to arrive this far
s would be thru convective enhancement. Mid level wly will likely
sag farther s in the Mon/Tue time frame which would allow for theta-e
ridge across the swrn states to move into at least the wrn CWFA.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 021109
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
558 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will primarily be out of the south to southeast through the
period.  Winds will pick up in intensity late this morning and will
remain elevated through the early evening hours.  Low clouds are
possible around 12z Wednesday for all terminals except CNM and PEQ.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Center of 5h anticyclone will be located INVOF SW NM/Far W TX
today and MSLP gradient will be tighter and farther w resulting in
stronger se winds that last longer. As such the surface trough and
associated thermal ridge will set up farther w. Consensus is that
85h temps will cool about 4C across the PB going from 31C to 27C
at MAF. Yesterday high temps where about 17F over 85h temps pointing
to a high of 98-100. However for areas farther w 85h temps will not be
much cooler and L100s will still be common in SE NM, wrn PB, Rio
Grande. Good news is that Wed/Thur 85h temps will continue to cool,
even into the M20C range in SE NM, wrn PB, Rio Grande where high
temps will fall back into the M90s/U90s. This cooler wx is in part
due to a pattern change as the 5h anticyclone develops well off to
the e and a much deeper e-se flow will be in place. In this pattern
change mid level mstr will have a chance to push into the area, at
least the Lower Trans Pecos/srn PB. As usual there are model differences
GFS/Canadian are dry and NAM12/ECMWF are more moist. Still too difficult
to make a binary decision and as such will opt to include low order
PoPs in aforementioned areas Thur/Fri. Models agree that a cold front
will mostly remain to the n into the extended forecast, with ECMWF
the outlier sagging the front into PB next Sunday with mid level
ridging in place? Seems best scenario for front to arrive this far
s would be thru convective enhancement. Mid level wly will likely
sag farther s in the Mon/Tue time frame which would allow for theta-e
ridge across the swrn states to move into at least the wrn CWFA.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 020930 CCA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR FORECASTER NUMBERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
417 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM..../NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES...MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND MARINE ISSUES ACROSS COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY.

THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES
WITH DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
/2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES/ THROUGH THE PERIOD COURTESY OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY. THE LATEST KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS
EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE OF TAMAULIPAS.

TODAY...500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY BEING FORCED TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MEXICO COASTLINE. INCREASING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR TODAY. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND
LOW LYING REGIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION BUT WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 2.3
INCHES/ AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S DUE
TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

RAINFALL...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...LOCALLY 2
TO 3 INCHES...ACROSS MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

COASTAL IMPACTS...LONG PERIOD SWELLS...GENERATED FROM TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST LATE TODAY. AS A RESULT...THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SURF
AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET TODAY AND 6 TO 9
FEET TONIGHT. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LONG PERIOD HIGH SWELLS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE RUN UP ON AREA BEACHES WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY DURING
HIGH TIDE. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...500 MB RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS WHATS LEFT OF DOLLY MOVES
FURTHER INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. THE
INCREASING RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE THE CONV POTENTIAL OVER THE RGV BUT
NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE IT. THE CONV TRENDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT BACK
TO MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN/SEA BREEZE CONV COVERAGE FOR THE LONGER
RANGE.

THE INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH DAY 7. BUT FOR NOW THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR >100 READINGS OUT WEST. THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS TEMPS IN THE
LONGER TERM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. SO WILL LIKELY GO WITH A
BLEND OF THE TWO HERE. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS
MEX MOS TEMPS/POPS IS PRETTY STABLE ALSO. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS COURTESY OF
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOY 42020
CURRENTLY REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
21 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 4.3 FEET AND A WAVE PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY DUE TO
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WELL SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH SEAS REACHING
5 TO 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE
AND 7 TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF WATERS 0 TO 60 NM EAST OF PADRE ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AFTER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HAZAROUS MARINE CONDITIONS GENERATED BY THE APPROACH OF DOLLY...
THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE STEADILY FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PGF OVER THE AREA
WEAKENS. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  79  88  80 /  50  40  70  50
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  88  78 /  50  50  70  50
HARLINGEN            94  77  89  77 /  50  40  70  50
MCALLEN              96  78  90  77 /  50  40  60  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      98  78  90  77 /  40  30  60  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  80  87  80 /  50  50  70  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65









000
FXUS64 KCRP 020918
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
418 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE NORTH OF TROPICAL
STORM DOLLY...THAT HAS FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...MOVING
INTO THE GULF WATERS. VALUES ARE RANGE FROM 2 TO 2.25 INCHES AND
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MODELS MOVING THIS WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WHILE MODELS SHOW A
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE COAST. SO EXPECT
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED AND KEPT WITH POPS THAT
ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY HAS SYSTEM MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST MEXICO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWEST THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY BETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. LEANED
TOWARD COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REGION AS TROPICAL STORM DOLLY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS INCREASING SWELLS THAT
ADVANCE NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA FROM TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. SCA IS
IN EFFECT FROM 21Z TODAY UNTIL 21Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS
COULD MAKE FOR ROUGHER MARINE CONDITIONS ALSO. SCATTERED CONVECTION
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...INCREASING SWELLS WITH HIGHER
PERIODS...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL ADVANCE TOWARD
THE COAST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE GULF FACING BEACHES TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TIDES ARE RUNNING FROM 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS...COULD
SEE TIDE LEVELS INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 2 FEET MSL...ESPECIALLY FOR
BEACHES SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT DETERMINE IF
ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHT FIELD WHICH MOVES AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR
THE WRN CWA EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A PREDOMINATE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THUS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF MSTR/UPPER
DYNAMICS TO RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION. AFTERWARD...MSTR WL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. YET EXPECT MSTR TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR (AND GFS DETERMINISTIC CIN/CAPE PATTERNS CONSISTENT
WITH) A RETURN TO DIURNAL/NOCTURAL CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION FRIDAY-SUNDAY YET ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY
MONDAY. AT LEAST A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS APPROACHING 100F OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SUNDAY OWING TO DRIER CONDITIONS. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100F OR LESS OVR THE CWA DRG THE AFTN HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  78  90  78  90  /  50  30  60  30  40
VICTORIA          93  76  93  77  94  /  50  20  40  20  30
LAREDO           101  80  94  79  92  /  20  20  50  40  40
ALICE             95  77  91  76  91  /  50  20  60  30  40
ROCKPORT          91  81  90  80  88  /  50  30  50  30  40
COTULLA           99  76  94  77  92  /  20  20  40  20  40
KINGSVILLE        94  78  90  77  92  /  50  30  60  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       91  81  89  80  87  /  50  40  60  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 020918
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
418 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE NORTH OF TROPICAL
STORM DOLLY...THAT HAS FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...MOVING
INTO THE GULF WATERS. VALUES ARE RANGE FROM 2 TO 2.25 INCHES AND
MODELS SHOW THIS AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MODELS MOVING THIS WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WHILE MODELS SHOW A
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE COAST. SO EXPECT
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO BE SCATTERED AND KEPT WITH POPS THAT
ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY HAS SYSTEM MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST MEXICO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWEST THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY BETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. LEANED
TOWARD COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER
THE REGION AS TROPICAL STORM DOLLY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS INCREASING SWELLS THAT
ADVANCE NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA FROM TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. SCA IS
IN EFFECT FROM 21Z TODAY UNTIL 21Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS
COULD MAKE FOR ROUGHER MARINE CONDITIONS ALSO. SCATTERED CONVECTION
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...INCREASING SWELLS WITH HIGHER
PERIODS...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL ADVANCE TOWARD
THE COAST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE GULF FACING BEACHES TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TIDES ARE RUNNING FROM 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS...COULD
SEE TIDE LEVELS INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 2 FEET MSL...ESPECIALLY FOR
BEACHES SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT DETERMINE IF
ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHT FIELD WHICH MOVES AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR
THE WRN CWA EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A PREDOMINATE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THUS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF MSTR/UPPER
DYNAMICS TO RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION. AFTERWARD...MSTR WL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. YET EXPECT MSTR TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR (AND GFS DETERMINISTIC CIN/CAPE PATTERNS CONSISTENT
WITH) A RETURN TO DIURNAL/NOCTURAL CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION FRIDAY-SUNDAY YET ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY
MONDAY. AT LEAST A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ANTICIPATED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS APPROACHING 100F OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SUNDAY OWING TO DRIER CONDITIONS. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100F OR LESS OVR THE CWA DRG THE AFTN HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  78  90  78  90  /  50  30  60  30  40
VICTORIA          93  76  93  77  94  /  50  20  40  20  30
LAREDO           101  80  94  79  92  /  20  20  50  40  40
ALICE             95  77  91  76  91  /  50  20  60  30  40
ROCKPORT          91  81  90  80  88  /  50  30  50  30  40
COTULLA           99  76  94  77  92  /  20  20  40  20  40
KINGSVILLE        94  78  90  77  92  /  50  30  60  30  40
NAVY CORPUS       91  81  89  80  87  /  50  40  60  40  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020917
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
417 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM..../NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES...MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND MARINE ISSUES ACROSS COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY.

THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES
WITH DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
/2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES/ THROUGH THE PERIOD COURTESY OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY. THE LATEST KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS
EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE OF TAMAULIPAS.

TODAY...500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY BEING FORCED TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MEXICO COASTLINE. INCREASING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR TODAY. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND
LOW LYING REGIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION BUT WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 2.3
INCHES/ AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S DUE
TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

RAINFALL...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...LOCALLY 2
TO 3 INCHES...ACROSS MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

COASTAL IMPACTS...LONG PERIOD SWELLS...GENERATED FROM TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST LATE TODAY. AS A RESULT...THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SURF
AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET TODAY AND 6 TO 9
FEET TONIGHT. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LONG PERIOD HIGH SWELLS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE RUN UP ON AREA BEACHES WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY DURING
HIGH TIDE. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...500 MB RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS WHATS LEFT OF DOLLY MOVES
FURTHER INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. THE
INCREASING RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE THE CONV POTENTIAL OVER THE RGV BUT
NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE IT. THE CONV TRENDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT BACK
TO MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN/SEA BREEZE CONV COVERAGE FOR THE LONGER
RANGE.

THE INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH DAY 7. BUT FOR NOW THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR >100 READINGS OUT WEST. THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS TEMPS IN THE
LONGER TERM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. SO WILL LIKELY GO WITH A
BLEND OF THE TWO HERE. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS
MEX MOS TEMPS/POPS IS PRETTY STABLE ALSO. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS COURTESY OF
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOY 42020
CURRENTLY REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
21 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 4.3 FEET AND A WAVE PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY DUE TO
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WELL SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH SEAS REACHING
5 TO 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE
AND 7 TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF WATERS 0 TO 60 NM EAST OF PADRE ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AFTER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HAZAROUS MARINE CONDITIONS GENERATED BY THE APPROACH OF DOLLY...
THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE STEADILY FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PGF OVER THE AREA
WEAKENS. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  79  88  80 /  50  40  70  50
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  88  78 /  50  50  70  50
HARLINGEN            94  77  89  77 /  50  40  70  50
MCALLEN              96  78  90  77 /  50  40  60  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      98  78  90  77 /  40  30  60  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  80  87  80 /  50  50  70  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020917
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
417 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM..../NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES...MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND MARINE ISSUES ACROSS COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WHICH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY.

THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.94 INCHES
WITH DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
/2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES/ THROUGH THE PERIOD COURTESY OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY. THE LATEST KBRO RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS
EXTENDING DOWN ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE OF TAMAULIPAS.

TODAY...500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY BEING FORCED TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MEXICO COASTLINE. INCREASING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR TODAY. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND
LOW LYING REGIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCE WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION BUT WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 2.3
INCHES/ AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S DUE
TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

RAINFALL...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...LOCALLY 2
TO 3 INCHES...ACROSS MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

COASTAL IMPACTS...LONG PERIOD SWELLS...GENERATED FROM TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST LATE TODAY. AS A RESULT...THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SURF
AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BUILDING SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET TODAY AND 6 TO 9
FEET TONIGHT. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LONG PERIOD HIGH SWELLS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE RUN UP ON AREA BEACHES WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
BEACH EROSION AND CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY DURING
HIGH TIDE. THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...500 MB RIDGING WILL
REBUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS WHATS LEFT OF DOLLY MOVES
FURTHER INLAND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. THE
INCREASING RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES OVER DEEP SOUTH TX IN LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE THE CONV POTENTIAL OVER THE RGV BUT
NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE IT. THE CONV TRENDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT BACK
TO MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN/SEA BREEZE CONV COVERAGE FOR THE LONGER
RANGE.

THE INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH DAY 7. BUT FOR NOW THE RESIDUAL TROPICAL
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR >100 READINGS OUT WEST. THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS TEMPS IN THE
LONGER TERM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. SO WILL LIKELY GO WITH A
BLEND OF THE TWO HERE. THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS
MEX MOS TEMPS/POPS IS PRETTY STABLE ALSO. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS COURTESY OF
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BUOY 42020
CURRENTLY REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
21 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 4.3 FEET AND A WAVE PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY DUE TO
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WELL SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. LONG
PERIOD SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH SEAS REACHING
5 TO 7 FEET. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE
AND 7 TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF WATERS 0 TO 60 NM EAST OF PADRE ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AFTER THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HAZAROUS MARINE CONDITIONS GENERATED BY THE APPROACH OF DOLLY...
THE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE STEADILY FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PGF OVER THE AREA
WEAKENS. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  79  88  80 /  50  40  70  50
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  88  78 /  50  50  70  50
HARLINGEN            94  77  89  77 /  50  40  70  50
MCALLEN              96  78  90  77 /  50  40  60  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      98  78  90  77 /  40  30  60  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  80  87  80 /  50  50  70  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65






000
FXUS64 KHGX 020905
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  77  93  76  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42



000
FXUS64 KHGX 020905
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  77  93  76  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42



000
FXUS64 KHGX 020905
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  77  93  76  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42



000
FXUS64 KHGX 020905
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS
APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...TD 5 HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
WHICH HAS CAUSED A CORRESPONDING SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
ONLY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE AS THE NEW TRACK STILL TAKES THE SYSTEM INTO
MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS BACK INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE REGION. GIVEN
THE RICH MOISTURE A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND GREATER CLOUD
COVER.

ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES FOR THE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A BROAD FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S...NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. 38

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND MOVE INLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUILDING SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. CAUTION FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...AND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED IF SEAS BUILD HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WEAKENING
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOWERING SEAS. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  75  95  75  94 /  30  20  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  77  93  76  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            91  81  91  81  90 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42



000
FXUS64 KFWD 020901
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

08Z/3AM REGIONAL RADAR DERIVED WINDS (VAD WINDS) INDICATED A 35 KT
LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH TO THE
OK/KS BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS IN PLACE ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CONTINUED TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AT THE
500 MB LEVEL...AND THE 00Z FWD RAOB SHOWED A STOUT MID-LEVEL CAP
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO TRACK AN AREA OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OVERNIGHT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPGRADED THIS ACTIVITY TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...SO WE OFFICIALLY HAVE TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WHICH WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO WATCH TODAY THAT MAY
BRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
FIRST IS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH DOLLY MOVING NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER WILL START TO BECOME
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY PROPAGATION AND MOVE SOUTH RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE. THIS IS ASSUMING THAT THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CAN
BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR ITS COLD POOL TO MOVE THIS LINE OF
STORMS IN A NEW DIRECTION THIS MORNING.

...THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH IS AN EXPLANATION OF THOSE FACTORS THAT
DICTATE STORM MOTION AND REALLY DOES NOT CONTRIBUTE TO THE
FORECAST...IT IS INCLUDED TO HELP PROVIDE INSIGHT/UNDERSTANDING
FOR THOSE INTERESTED. YOU CAN SKIP THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH TO
CONTINUE ON WITH THE FORECAST DISCUSSION...


IN A BASIC SENSE...THE MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS IS
CONTROLLED BY THE AVERAGE OF THE WINDS ALOFT...OFTEN REFERRED TO
AS THE STEERING WINDS. IN MOST CASES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SIMPLY
MOVE IN THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT ARE BLOWING.
HOWEVER THE SECOND COMPONENT TO CONSIDER IS OFTEN REFERRED TO AS
THE PROPAGATION COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION. PROPAGATION INFLUENCES
STORM MOTION BY CHANGING THE DIRECTION OF MOTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
SYSTEM IN THE DIRECTION THAT NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS IS
THE MORE COMPLICATED FACTOR TO UNDERSTAND...BUT IN GENERAL...NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO DEVELOP IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. ON A DAY LIKE TODAY...WHERE THE STEERING WINDS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIGHT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS...BUT THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IS RELATIVELY STRONG...THE PROPAGATION COMPONENT CAN
DOMINATE THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM MOVES. FOR
TODAY...THE STEERING WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND WOULD INDICATE
AN EASTERLY STORM MOTION. THIS IS WHY THE STORMS ARE JUST SORT OF
SITTING THERE ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 3 AM. HOWEVER IF THIS RESULTS
IN A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL (A COLLECTION OF RAIN COOLED AIR)
THIS COLD POOL COULD START TO SURGE SOUTH...CAUSING NEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM OUR CWA TO THE FRONT...THE WHOLE
COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD START TO MOVE SOUTH DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER...BUT WILL STILL MOVE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST DUE
TO THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT. THIS IS A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN DIRECTION
FROM WHAT STORMS HAVE BEEN DOING OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MAKES SENSE IN
THE CONTEXT OF WHAT WAS DESCRIBED ABOVE.


THE MAIN POINT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS MORNING IS: WILL
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO MOVE AS A SYSTEM?

THAT IS LARGELY UNKNOWN BECAUSE JUST LOOKING AT THE STORMS ON
RADAR IS NOT ENOUGH TO DETERMINE HOW STRONG THE COLD POOL WILL
GET...BUT THE FACT THAT THE HRRR AND THE TEXAS TECH WRF BOTH
ADVERTISE A DRAMATIC SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS
THE RED RIVER AROUND SUNRISE GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION.
WENT AHEAD AND PLACED A VERY SMALL AREA OF 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST
FROM JUST NORTH OF SHERMAN EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING
MUCH OF LAMAR COUNTY. IF THE STORMS DO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AS THESE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE...THEY WILL BE IN THEIR
DISSIPATING STAGES BY THE TIME THEY CROSS THE RED RIVER WELL
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...SO NO STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE TX GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT MID-LEVEL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY
MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MEXICO GULF COAST. THIS
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO REORIENTED POPS A BIT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IN GENERAL...THERE IS
STILL NO OBVIOUS LIFT...SO THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...AND LEFT POPS AT THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE OFF TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS SEEM TO SEND
THE DEEPER MID-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST WITH
DOLLY...SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND LEFT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST DRY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT
IN KEEPING THINGS DRY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS STILL SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE PRIMARY REASON
THAT THE FRONT MAKES IT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IS DUE TO
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK.
IF THE FRONTAL MOTION IS REALLY DEPENDENT UPON PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN LOW UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.

THE BIGGEST REASON FOR OPTIMISM IN THE FRONT MAKING IT THIS FAR
SOUTH IS OBSERVING WHAT HAPPENS TODAY. IF MCS ACTIVITY FROM THE
OK/KS BORDER ACTUALLY SURGES SOUTH THIS MORNING...IT BECOMES EASY
TO SEE HOW PERSISTENT STORMS TO OUR NORTH CAN SEND A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS UNDER WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...SO LEFT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON
SATURDAY...AND KEPT THEM BROAD BRUSHED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FRONT...ASSUMING IT MAKES IT HERE THIS
WEEKEND...WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. BECAUSE THE FRONT
DOES NOT REPRESENT A TRUE AIRMASS REPLACEMENT...THAT IS...THERE IS
NO CANADIAN/OR SIGNIFICANTLY COOL AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AND LOSE DEFINITION QUICKLY
UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. LEFT THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY AS
A RESULT.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1130 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE WILL BECOME BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY A
PERIOD OF MVFR DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS AS STRATUS SPREADS
NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WE HAVE NOW INCLUDED
MVFR CIGS INDISCRIMINATELY BASED ON THE MOST RECENT MODEL
DATA...WITH ONSET AT 08Z IN KACT AND 11-12Z IN THE METROPLEX. CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE 15-17Z TIMEFRAME...OTHERWISE PERSISTENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  96  77  96 /   5   5   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  97  74  97 /  20  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             92  72  91  72  92 /  20  10   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            96  75  95  74  95 /  10   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          95  74  94  74  94 /  10   5   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  96  78  96 /   5   5   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  76  96  75  96 /  10  10   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  76  96  75  96 /  20  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  72  97  73  97 /  20  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  96  72  96 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 020901
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

08Z/3AM REGIONAL RADAR DERIVED WINDS (VAD WINDS) INDICATED A 35 KT
LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH TO THE
OK/KS BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS IN PLACE ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CONTINUED TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AT THE
500 MB LEVEL...AND THE 00Z FWD RAOB SHOWED A STOUT MID-LEVEL CAP
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO TRACK AN AREA OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OVERNIGHT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPGRADED THIS ACTIVITY TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...SO WE OFFICIALLY HAVE TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WHICH WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO WATCH TODAY THAT MAY
BRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
FIRST IS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER
THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH DOLLY MOVING NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.

FOR THIS MORNING...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER WILL START TO BECOME
STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY PROPAGATION AND MOVE SOUTH RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE. THIS IS ASSUMING THAT THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CAN
BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR ITS COLD POOL TO MOVE THIS LINE OF
STORMS IN A NEW DIRECTION THIS MORNING.

...THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH IS AN EXPLANATION OF THOSE FACTORS THAT
DICTATE STORM MOTION AND REALLY DOES NOT CONTRIBUTE TO THE
FORECAST...IT IS INCLUDED TO HELP PROVIDE INSIGHT/UNDERSTANDING
FOR THOSE INTERESTED. YOU CAN SKIP THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH TO
CONTINUE ON WITH THE FORECAST DISCUSSION...


IN A BASIC SENSE...THE MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS IS
CONTROLLED BY THE AVERAGE OF THE WINDS ALOFT...OFTEN REFERRED TO
AS THE STEERING WINDS. IN MOST CASES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SIMPLY
MOVE IN THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT ARE BLOWING.
HOWEVER THE SECOND COMPONENT TO CONSIDER IS OFTEN REFERRED TO AS
THE PROPAGATION COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION. PROPAGATION INFLUENCES
STORM MOTION BY CHANGING THE DIRECTION OF MOTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
SYSTEM IN THE DIRECTION THAT NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS IS
THE MORE COMPLICATED FACTOR TO UNDERSTAND...BUT IN GENERAL...NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TEND TO DEVELOP IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET. ON A DAY LIKE TODAY...WHERE THE STEERING WINDS ARE
SOMEWHAT LIGHT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS...BUT THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IS RELATIVELY STRONG...THE PROPAGATION COMPONENT CAN
DOMINATE THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM MOVES. FOR
TODAY...THE STEERING WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND WOULD INDICATE
AN EASTERLY STORM MOTION. THIS IS WHY THE STORMS ARE JUST SORT OF
SITTING THERE ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 3 AM. HOWEVER IF THIS RESULTS
IN A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL (A COLLECTION OF RAIN COOLED AIR)
THIS COLD POOL COULD START TO SURGE SOUTH...CAUSING NEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM OUR CWA TO THE FRONT...THE WHOLE
COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD START TO MOVE SOUTH DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER...BUT WILL STILL MOVE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST DUE
TO THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT. THIS IS A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN DIRECTION
FROM WHAT STORMS HAVE BEEN DOING OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MAKES SENSE IN
THE CONTEXT OF WHAT WAS DESCRIBED ABOVE.


THE MAIN POINT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS MORNING IS: WILL
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO MOVE AS A SYSTEM?

THAT IS LARGELY UNKNOWN BECAUSE JUST LOOKING AT THE STORMS ON
RADAR IS NOT ENOUGH TO DETERMINE HOW STRONG THE COLD POOL WILL
GET...BUT THE FACT THAT THE HRRR AND THE TEXAS TECH WRF BOTH
ADVERTISE A DRAMATIC SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS
THE RED RIVER AROUND SUNRISE GIVES CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION.
WENT AHEAD AND PLACED A VERY SMALL AREA OF 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST
FROM JUST NORTH OF SHERMAN EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING
MUCH OF LAMAR COUNTY. IF THE STORMS DO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AS THESE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE...THEY WILL BE IN THEIR
DISSIPATING STAGES BY THE TIME THEY CROSS THE RED RIVER WELL
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...SO NO STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE TX GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE BUT IMPORTANT MID-LEVEL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY
MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MEXICO GULF COAST. THIS
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO REORIENTED POPS A BIT
TO HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IN GENERAL...THERE IS
STILL NO OBVIOUS LIFT...SO THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...AND LEFT POPS AT THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE OFF TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS SEEM TO SEND
THE DEEPER MID-LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST WITH
DOLLY...SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND LEFT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST DRY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT
IN KEEPING THINGS DRY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS STILL SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE PRIMARY REASON
THAT THE FRONT MAKES IT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IS DUE TO
PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK.
IF THE FRONTAL MOTION IS REALLY DEPENDENT UPON PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN LOW UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.

THE BIGGEST REASON FOR OPTIMISM IN THE FRONT MAKING IT THIS FAR
SOUTH IS OBSERVING WHAT HAPPENS TODAY. IF MCS ACTIVITY FROM THE
OK/KS BORDER ACTUALLY SURGES SOUTH THIS MORNING...IT BECOMES EASY
TO SEE HOW PERSISTENT STORMS TO OUR NORTH CAN SEND A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS UNDER WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. THE FRONT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...SO LEFT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON
SATURDAY...AND KEPT THEM BROAD BRUSHED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON
SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FRONT...ASSUMING IT MAKES IT HERE THIS
WEEKEND...WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. BECAUSE THE FRONT
DOES NOT REPRESENT A TRUE AIRMASS REPLACEMENT...THAT IS...THERE IS
NO CANADIAN/OR SIGNIFICANTLY COOL AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...IT WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AND LOSE DEFINITION QUICKLY
UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. LEFT THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY AS
A RESULT.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1130 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE WILL BECOME BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY A
PERIOD OF MVFR DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS AS STRATUS SPREADS
NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WE HAVE NOW INCLUDED
MVFR CIGS INDISCRIMINATELY BASED ON THE MOST RECENT MODEL
DATA...WITH ONSET AT 08Z IN KACT AND 11-12Z IN THE METROPLEX. CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE 15-17Z TIMEFRAME...OTHERWISE PERSISTENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  97  77  96  77  96 /   5   5   5   5   0
WACO, TX              98  75  97  74  97 /  20  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             92  72  91  72  92 /  20  10   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            96  75  95  74  95 /  10   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          95  74  94  74  94 /  10   5   5   5   0
DALLAS, TX            97  78  96  78  96 /   5   5   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           96  76  96  75  96 /  10  10   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         97  76  96  75  96 /  20  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            98  72  97  73  97 /  20  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     97  73  96  72  96 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KSJT 020855
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another mild night ongoing across West Central Texas, with south
winds remaining strong enough to keep temperatures from dropping
very much. Readings still right around 80 degrees at 3 AM (08Z).
Models do indicate that some patchy low cloudiness will develop by
sunrise and spread northward into the area, with low cloud satellite
imagery showing some of this starting to develop across portions of
Central Texas.

Another hot day in store for the area, with the upper level ridge of
high pressure in control. The 00Z NAM showed some convection across
West Central Texas this afternoon, but the GFS is dry. Both the TTU
WRF and the HRRR both show a similar pattern, scattered sea breeze
activity pushing well inland today, but dissipating at sunset across
Central Texas. Thus, will not insert PoPs into the forecast.
After readings above the 100 degree mark at San Angelo and
Abilene, models indicate a slight cooling at 850MB today as a
little cooler and more moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico
slides into the area. Will keep afternoon highs below the 100
degree mark, but still a degree or two above guidance. Mild again
tonight as south winds keep temperatures from dropping very
quickly. Again, stayed just a little above guidance, as it has
been too cool for the last several days.

.LONG TERM...

Surface temperatures fall 2 to 3 degrees F Wednesday as 850 MB
temperatures fall another 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. Tropical Storm
Dolly in the Bay of Campeche is expected to move into Mexico
early Wednesday, and may send weak disturbances/moisture
northward to affect the I-10 corridor Thursday and Friday. This
is indicated mainly by the EC model, as the GFS model is dry and
the NAM model nearly so. Will keep rain chances out of forecast
for this time period, given the uncertainty and limited agreement
in the models.

For Saturday night into Sunday, however, both the GFS and EC
modes are still indicating a weak cold front to bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast already has rain
chances in for this time period, and will maintain them.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  76  96  74  95 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  98  75  95  74  94 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  95  77  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/04








000
FXUS64 KSJT 020855
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another mild night ongoing across West Central Texas, with south
winds remaining strong enough to keep temperatures from dropping
very much. Readings still right around 80 degrees at 3 AM (08Z).
Models do indicate that some patchy low cloudiness will develop by
sunrise and spread northward into the area, with low cloud satellite
imagery showing some of this starting to develop across portions of
Central Texas.

Another hot day in store for the area, with the upper level ridge of
high pressure in control. The 00Z NAM showed some convection across
West Central Texas this afternoon, but the GFS is dry. Both the TTU
WRF and the HRRR both show a similar pattern, scattered sea breeze
activity pushing well inland today, but dissipating at sunset across
Central Texas. Thus, will not insert PoPs into the forecast.
After readings above the 100 degree mark at San Angelo and
Abilene, models indicate a slight cooling at 850MB today as a
little cooler and more moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico
slides into the area. Will keep afternoon highs below the 100
degree mark, but still a degree or two above guidance. Mild again
tonight as south winds keep temperatures from dropping very
quickly. Again, stayed just a little above guidance, as it has
been too cool for the last several days.

.LONG TERM...

Surface temperatures fall 2 to 3 degrees F Wednesday as 850 MB
temperatures fall another 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. Tropical Storm
Dolly in the Bay of Campeche is expected to move into Mexico
early Wednesday, and may send weak disturbances/moisture
northward to affect the I-10 corridor Thursday and Friday. This
is indicated mainly by the EC model, as the GFS model is dry and
the NAM model nearly so. Will keep rain chances out of forecast
for this time period, given the uncertainty and limited agreement
in the models.

For Saturday night into Sunday, however, both the GFS and EC
modes are still indicating a weak cold front to bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast already has rain
chances in for this time period, and will maintain them.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  76  96  74  95 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  98  75  95  74  94 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  95  77  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/04







000
FXUS64 KLUB 020855
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
3 AM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH ISN/T SURPRISING GIVEN
THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40...AND THERE WAS EVEN AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME SWD PROGRESS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SPLNS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE
CENTRAL SPLNS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WE/LL HAVE
TO RELY ON SURFACE-BASED LIFT TO GENERATE ANY MOIST CONVECTION
TODAY. KLBB FCST SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP REMAINING FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
06 UTC HRRR AND RAP RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
THE SREF...WHICH SOMEWHAT BULLSEYES THE CAPROCK CANYONS AREA. WE
WILL RUN WITH A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF T-STORMS...CENTERED ACROSS
BRISCOE COUNTY...AND ROUGHLY EXTENDING WEST TO I-27 AND SOUTH TO
NEAR HWY 82. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT ML CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORTUNATELY WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS BACK DOWN A BIT...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THE
WEAK FRONT/S INFLUENCE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WELCOME COOLING TREND EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LONGITUDINALLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS MID/LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH DECREASING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMISE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH THIS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS CAN SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST RUN SOUTHWARD
BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT NWP
HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF DOLLY
AND A TAP OFF A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ ARE FUNNELED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED TO NORTH AND WEST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL FULLY BE ABLE TO TAP THE SUB-TROPICAL
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...THE NWP SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW
AIDED FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND /AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF OR NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/. REGARDLESS...IF THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA IT WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RESIDING SOMEWHERE LOCALLY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES
FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  67  94  66  90 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  70  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  68  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     98  72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          97  69  96  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23






000
FXUS64 KLUB 020855
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
3 AM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH ISN/T SURPRISING GIVEN
THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40...AND THERE WAS EVEN AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME SWD PROGRESS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SPLNS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE
CENTRAL SPLNS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WE/LL HAVE
TO RELY ON SURFACE-BASED LIFT TO GENERATE ANY MOIST CONVECTION
TODAY. KLBB FCST SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP REMAINING FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
06 UTC HRRR AND RAP RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
THE SREF...WHICH SOMEWHAT BULLSEYES THE CAPROCK CANYONS AREA. WE
WILL RUN WITH A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF T-STORMS...CENTERED ACROSS
BRISCOE COUNTY...AND ROUGHLY EXTENDING WEST TO I-27 AND SOUTH TO
NEAR HWY 82. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT ML CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORTUNATELY WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS BACK DOWN A BIT...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THE
WEAK FRONT/S INFLUENCE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WELCOME COOLING TREND EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LONGITUDINALLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS MID/LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH DECREASING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMISE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH THIS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS CAN SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST RUN SOUTHWARD
BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT NWP
HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF DOLLY
AND A TAP OFF A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ ARE FUNNELED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED TO NORTH AND WEST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL FULLY BE ABLE TO TAP THE SUB-TROPICAL
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...THE NWP SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW
AIDED FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND /AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF OR NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/. REGARDLESS...IF THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA IT WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RESIDING SOMEWHERE LOCALLY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES
FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  67  94  66  90 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  70  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  68  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     98  72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          97  69  96  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23






000
FXUS64 KSJT 020855
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another mild night ongoing across West Central Texas, with south
winds remaining strong enough to keep temperatures from dropping
very much. Readings still right around 80 degrees at 3 AM (08Z).
Models do indicate that some patchy low cloudiness will develop by
sunrise and spread northward into the area, with low cloud satellite
imagery showing some of this starting to develop across portions of
Central Texas.

Another hot day in store for the area, with the upper level ridge of
high pressure in control. The 00Z NAM showed some convection across
West Central Texas this afternoon, but the GFS is dry. Both the TTU
WRF and the HRRR both show a similar pattern, scattered sea breeze
activity pushing well inland today, but dissipating at sunset across
Central Texas. Thus, will not insert PoPs into the forecast.
After readings above the 100 degree mark at San Angelo and
Abilene, models indicate a slight cooling at 850MB today as a
little cooler and more moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico
slides into the area. Will keep afternoon highs below the 100
degree mark, but still a degree or two above guidance. Mild again
tonight as south winds keep temperatures from dropping very
quickly. Again, stayed just a little above guidance, as it has
been too cool for the last several days.

.LONG TERM...

Surface temperatures fall 2 to 3 degrees F Wednesday as 850 MB
temperatures fall another 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. Tropical Storm
Dolly in the Bay of Campeche is expected to move into Mexico
early Wednesday, and may send weak disturbances/moisture
northward to affect the I-10 corridor Thursday and Friday. This
is indicated mainly by the EC model, as the GFS model is dry and
the NAM model nearly so. Will keep rain chances out of forecast
for this time period, given the uncertainty and limited agreement
in the models.

For Saturday night into Sunday, however, both the GFS and EC
modes are still indicating a weak cold front to bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast already has rain
chances in for this time period, and will maintain them.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  76  96  74  95 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  98  75  95  74  94 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  95  77  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/04







000
FXUS64 KLUB 020855
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
3 AM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH ISN/T SURPRISING GIVEN
THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40...AND THERE WAS EVEN AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME SWD PROGRESS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SPLNS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE
CENTRAL SPLNS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WE/LL HAVE
TO RELY ON SURFACE-BASED LIFT TO GENERATE ANY MOIST CONVECTION
TODAY. KLBB FCST SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP REMAINING FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
06 UTC HRRR AND RAP RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
THE SREF...WHICH SOMEWHAT BULLSEYES THE CAPROCK CANYONS AREA. WE
WILL RUN WITH A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF T-STORMS...CENTERED ACROSS
BRISCOE COUNTY...AND ROUGHLY EXTENDING WEST TO I-27 AND SOUTH TO
NEAR HWY 82. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT ML CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORTUNATELY WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS BACK DOWN A BIT...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THE
WEAK FRONT/S INFLUENCE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WELCOME COOLING TREND EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LONGITUDINALLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS MID/LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH DECREASING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMISE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH THIS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS CAN SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST RUN SOUTHWARD
BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT NWP
HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF DOLLY
AND A TAP OFF A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ ARE FUNNELED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED TO NORTH AND WEST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL FULLY BE ABLE TO TAP THE SUB-TROPICAL
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...THE NWP SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW
AIDED FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND /AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF OR NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/. REGARDLESS...IF THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA IT WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RESIDING SOMEWHERE LOCALLY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES
FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  67  94  66  90 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  70  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  68  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     98  72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          97  69  96  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23






000
FXUS64 KLUB 020855
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
3 AM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH ISN/T SURPRISING GIVEN
THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40...AND THERE WAS EVEN AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME SWD PROGRESS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SPLNS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE
CENTRAL SPLNS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WE/LL HAVE
TO RELY ON SURFACE-BASED LIFT TO GENERATE ANY MOIST CONVECTION
TODAY. KLBB FCST SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP REMAINING FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
06 UTC HRRR AND RAP RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
THE SREF...WHICH SOMEWHAT BULLSEYES THE CAPROCK CANYONS AREA. WE
WILL RUN WITH A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF T-STORMS...CENTERED ACROSS
BRISCOE COUNTY...AND ROUGHLY EXTENDING WEST TO I-27 AND SOUTH TO
NEAR HWY 82. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT ML CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORTUNATELY WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS BACK DOWN A BIT...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THE
WEAK FRONT/S INFLUENCE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WELCOME COOLING TREND EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LONGITUDINALLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS MID/LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH DECREASING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMISE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH THIS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS CAN SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST RUN SOUTHWARD
BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT NWP
HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF DOLLY
AND A TAP OFF A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ ARE FUNNELED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED TO NORTH AND WEST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL FULLY BE ABLE TO TAP THE SUB-TROPICAL
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...THE NWP SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW
AIDED FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND /AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF OR NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/. REGARDLESS...IF THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA IT WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RESIDING SOMEWHERE LOCALLY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES
FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  67  94  66  90 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  70  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  68  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     98  72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          97  69  96  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23






000
FXUS64 KSJT 020855
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another mild night ongoing across West Central Texas, with south
winds remaining strong enough to keep temperatures from dropping
very much. Readings still right around 80 degrees at 3 AM (08Z).
Models do indicate that some patchy low cloudiness will develop by
sunrise and spread northward into the area, with low cloud satellite
imagery showing some of this starting to develop across portions of
Central Texas.

Another hot day in store for the area, with the upper level ridge of
high pressure in control. The 00Z NAM showed some convection across
West Central Texas this afternoon, but the GFS is dry. Both the TTU
WRF and the HRRR both show a similar pattern, scattered sea breeze
activity pushing well inland today, but dissipating at sunset across
Central Texas. Thus, will not insert PoPs into the forecast.
After readings above the 100 degree mark at San Angelo and
Abilene, models indicate a slight cooling at 850MB today as a
little cooler and more moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico
slides into the area. Will keep afternoon highs below the 100
degree mark, but still a degree or two above guidance. Mild again
tonight as south winds keep temperatures from dropping very
quickly. Again, stayed just a little above guidance, as it has
been too cool for the last several days.

.LONG TERM...

Surface temperatures fall 2 to 3 degrees F Wednesday as 850 MB
temperatures fall another 1 to 2 degrees Celsius. Tropical Storm
Dolly in the Bay of Campeche is expected to move into Mexico
early Wednesday, and may send weak disturbances/moisture
northward to affect the I-10 corridor Thursday and Friday. This
is indicated mainly by the EC model, as the GFS model is dry and
the NAM model nearly so. Will keep rain chances out of forecast
for this time period, given the uncertainty and limited agreement
in the models.

For Saturday night into Sunday, however, both the GFS and EC
modes are still indicating a weak cold front to bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Forecast already has rain
chances in for this time period, and will maintain them.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 100  76  96  74  95 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  98  75  95  74  94 /   5   5  10  10  10
Junction  95  77  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/04







000
FXUS64 KLUB 020855
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
3 AM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH ISN/T SURPRISING GIVEN
THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40...AND THERE WAS EVEN AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME SWD PROGRESS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SPLNS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE
CENTRAL SPLNS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WE/LL HAVE
TO RELY ON SURFACE-BASED LIFT TO GENERATE ANY MOIST CONVECTION
TODAY. KLBB FCST SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP REMAINING FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
06 UTC HRRR AND RAP RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
THE SREF...WHICH SOMEWHAT BULLSEYES THE CAPROCK CANYONS AREA. WE
WILL RUN WITH A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF T-STORMS...CENTERED ACROSS
BRISCOE COUNTY...AND ROUGHLY EXTENDING WEST TO I-27 AND SOUTH TO
NEAR HWY 82. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT ML CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORTUNATELY WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS BACK DOWN A BIT...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THE
WEAK FRONT/S INFLUENCE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WELCOME COOLING TREND EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LONGITUDINALLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS MID/LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH DECREASING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMISE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH THIS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS CAN SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST RUN SOUTHWARD
BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT NWP
HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF DOLLY
AND A TAP OFF A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ ARE FUNNELED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED TO NORTH AND WEST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL FULLY BE ABLE TO TAP THE SUB-TROPICAL
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...THE NWP SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW
AIDED FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND /AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF OR NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/. REGARDLESS...IF THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA IT WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RESIDING SOMEWHERE LOCALLY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES
FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  67  94  66  90 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  70  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  68  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     98  72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          97  69  96  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23






000
FXUS64 KLUB 020855
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
3 AM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH ISN/T SURPRISING GIVEN
THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40...AND THERE WAS EVEN AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME SWD PROGRESS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SPLNS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE
CENTRAL SPLNS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WE/LL HAVE
TO RELY ON SURFACE-BASED LIFT TO GENERATE ANY MOIST CONVECTION
TODAY. KLBB FCST SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP REMAINING FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
06 UTC HRRR AND RAP RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
THE SREF...WHICH SOMEWHAT BULLSEYES THE CAPROCK CANYONS AREA. WE
WILL RUN WITH A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF T-STORMS...CENTERED ACROSS
BRISCOE COUNTY...AND ROUGHLY EXTENDING WEST TO I-27 AND SOUTH TO
NEAR HWY 82. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT ML CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORTUNATELY WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS BACK DOWN A BIT...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THE
WEAK FRONT/S INFLUENCE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WELCOME COOLING TREND EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LONGITUDINALLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS MID/LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH DECREASING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMISE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH THIS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS CAN SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST RUN SOUTHWARD
BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT NWP
HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF DOLLY
AND A TAP OFF A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ ARE FUNNELED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED TO NORTH AND WEST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL FULLY BE ABLE TO TAP THE SUB-TROPICAL
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...THE NWP SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW
AIDED FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND /AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF OR NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/. REGARDLESS...IF THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA IT WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RESIDING SOMEWHERE LOCALLY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES
FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  67  94  66  90 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  70  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  68  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     98  72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          97  69  96  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23






000
FXUS64 KEWX 020851
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
351 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM THE WRN GULF
INTO MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE NHC DEFINED SURFACE POSITION AND
TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWS A GOOD
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY CONCENTRATING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TODAY. FARTHER NORTH HIGH HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. A STUBBORN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX IS STILL
LIKELY TO HOLD OF A DEEP INTRUSION OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TODAY...BUT COULD SET UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
GOOD RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DEEP SURFACE TO 500 HPA
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR DRT. WILL FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF
GUIDANCE OVER THE DRIER GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AUSTIN METRO
AREA AND POINTS NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE OUT FRINGE OF
THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM A FEW TRAINING CELLS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO NOT PRESENT A CONCERN FOR RUNOFF.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY OVER MAINLY THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRIER. THE
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK OF DOLLY EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL SHOULD
LEAVE ONLY REMNANT MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO TX...SO THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VORTICITY TO HELP CONCENTRATE RAIN CHANCES.
THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POP DAYS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES COULD KEEP A FEW
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE
RESILIENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO EXTEND
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS NOT SHOWN TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE CENTRAL TX RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO AGREE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO POSSIBLY MODIFY THE HEAT
WAVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76  97  76  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  73  97  74  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  74  97  74  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  74  95  74  95 /  10  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  77  95  75  93 /  -   -   30  20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  75  96  76  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  73  95  73  94 /  10  20  30  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  95  75  95 /  20  20  30  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  97  76  96 /  30  20  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  30  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  76  96  76  96 /  10  20  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18







000
FXUS64 KEWX 020851
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
351 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE WEST FROM THE WRN GULF
INTO MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OF THE NHC DEFINED SURFACE POSITION AND
TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE NEW 06Z NAM SHOWS A GOOD
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BY CONCENTRATING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TODAY. FARTHER NORTH HIGH HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR ANOTHER
DAY. A STUBBORN MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX IS STILL
LIKELY TO HOLD OF A DEEP INTRUSION OF THIS UNSTABLE AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX TODAY...BUT COULD SET UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
GOOD RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF OUR SOUTH
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DEEP SURFACE TO 500 HPA
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR DRT. WILL FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF
GUIDANCE OVER THE DRIER GFS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AUSTIN METRO
AREA AND POINTS NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE OUT FRINGE OF
THESE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM A FEW TRAINING CELLS...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO NOT PRESENT A CONCERN FOR RUNOFF.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY OVER MAINLY THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRIER. THE
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK OF DOLLY EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL SHOULD
LEAVE ONLY REMNANT MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO TX...SO THERE SHOULD BE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VORTICITY TO HELP CONCENTRATE RAIN CHANCES.
THUS AFTER SOME LOW CHANCE CATEGORY POP DAYS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES COULD KEEP A FEW
DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE
RESILIENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO EXTEND
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IS NOT SHOWN TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON THE CENTRAL TX RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO AGREE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO POSSIBLY MODIFY THE HEAT
WAVE OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  76  97  76  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  73  97  74  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  74  97  74  96 /  20  20  30  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            96  74  95  74  95 /  10  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  77  95  75  93 /  -   -   30  20  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  75  96  76  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  73  95  73  94 /  10  20  30  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  75  95  75  95 /  20  20  30  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   97  76  97  76  96 /  30  20  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  30  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  76  96  76  96 /  10  20  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 020849
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
249 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NOTHING REALLY CHANGES TODAY FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE REGION SUNNY...HOT...AND DRY.
MUCH THE SAME IS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP IN AND GIVE THE REGION IT`S FIRST SLIM SHOT AT
ISOLATED STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND PROVIDE
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN TO NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE KEEP THE STATUS QUO OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD. LAST NIGHT`S SOUNDING BROUGHT OUR PW
DOWN TO A HALF INCH...WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE SLIVER OF
MID-LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
BELOW TO THE POINT THAT EVEN CLOUDS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO
DEVELOP. THERE IS NO HOPE FOR STORMS WITH SUCH DRY AIR AND A HUGE
WARM INVERSION LAYER ALOFT CAPPING LIFT. ANOTHER DAY OF VERY WARM
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR RECORDS.

WEDNESDAY WILL MARK THE STAR OF THE REVERSAL IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FOCUS EAST AND
ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING IN GULF MOISTURE TO
THE EAST ZONES AND MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OUT OF N MEXICO TO THE WEST ZONES. AT THIS
TIME WE BELIEVE THE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH THAT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL NOT SEE ANY PCPN/STORMS. HOWEVER THERE ARE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THE SACS FOR THE WED PM HOURS. THURSDAY WE CONTINUE
THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND GET ALL OF THE ZONES IN POSITION TO SEE
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. PW`S WILL GET BACK UP TO 1" OR ABOVE
AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT WILL ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER AND DEEPER CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF
COOLER TEMPS DUE TO THE LOSS OF HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE AND MORE
CLOUDS IN A MORE MOIST AIRMASS.

FRIDAY ONWARD THE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY AS SEVERAL SUBTLE MODEL
DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR HUGE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
OUTCOME. THE FIRST QUESTION IS "HOW FAR EAST...AND FOR HOW
LONG...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE RECEDE TO THE EAST"? THIS TRANSITION
WILL AIDE THE AREA IN GETTING A RETURN OF MOISTURE. IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TROPICAL STORM "DOLLY" WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE MEXICAN
COAST S OF BROWNSVILLE AND TRACK ACROSS N MEXICO TOWARD OUR
REGION. TO OUR SOUTH A SECOND TROPICAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BECOME
TROPICAL CYCLONE "NORBERT". THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N
TOWARD THE BAJA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD TEAM UP TO ADD COPIOUS
MOISTURE TO THE FETCH THAT WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER MODELS ARE WAFFLING ON THAT VS.
SHOVING THE MOISTURE TO OUR WEST AND CONCENTRATING THAT PLUME OVER
AZ. THE FORMER SCENARIO WOULD GIVE OUR REGION VERY GOOD CHANCES AT
A WET PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE NEXT TUESDAY...AND THE ECMWF
MODEL FAVORS THAT OUTCOME. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE LATER OUTCOME
WITH MOST OF THE PCPN OVER AZ KEEPING. THIS KEEPS MUCH OF OUR REGION
MORE DRY THAN WET. THUS THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IS QUITE WIDE
AND CONFIDENCE IS MEAGER AT BEST.

OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR A THU-TUE DURATION OF SCATTERED
RAIN/STORMS OVER W AND MOUNTAIN ZONES...ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT THE FORECAST TO CHANGE...MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY...OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE FRI-TUE FORECAST PERIODS AS WE HUNT
FOR MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/12Z - 03/12Z...
VFR CONDS THRU PD. P6SM SKC-FEW120 THRU PD. WINDS W 5 TO 12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE TEENS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE SACS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WOULD BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REALLY MAKE A RETURN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY
STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                100  73  98  72  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           96  70  95  70  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              98  67  97  68  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              97  66  96  70  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              77  50  74  51  70 /   0   0  20  10  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   97  66  94  67  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             93  61  92  61  87 /   0   0   0   0  20
DEMING                  99  63  97  67  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               97  63  96  66  95 /   0   0   0   0  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      99  72  98  71  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY              100  70  98  71  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            99  74  97  74  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              93  70  93  67  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  97  71  96  72  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            99  70  97  68  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  69  95  69  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           96  63  96  66  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   98  65  97  67  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                96  67  95  68  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               97  69  96  71  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 85  56  83  57  78 /   0   0  10  10  20
MESCALERO               86  56  84  55  81 /   0   0  10  10  20
TIMBERON                86  54  84  57  80 /   0   0  10  10  20
WINSTON                 87  58  86  55  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
HILLSBORO               92  63  92  62  86 /   0   0   0   0  20
SPACEPORT               96  66  95  67  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            90  56  89  55  85 /   0   0   0   0  20
HURLEY                  94  61  94  62  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CLIFF                   95  58  92  55  92 /   0   0   0   0  20
MULE CREEK              92  52  90  52  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
FAYWOOD                 92  62  92  62  86 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANIMAS                  95  67  95  67  93 /   0   0   0   0  20
HACHITA                 97  62  96  66  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          95  61  94  65  93 /   0   0   0   0  20
CLOVERDALE              93  63  93  63  91 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 020849
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
249 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NOTHING REALLY CHANGES TODAY FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE REGION SUNNY...HOT...AND DRY.
MUCH THE SAME IS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO CREEP IN AND GIVE THE REGION IT`S FIRST SLIM SHOT AT
ISOLATED STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND PROVIDE
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL DOWN TO NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE KEEP THE STATUS QUO OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD. LAST NIGHT`S SOUNDING BROUGHT OUR PW
DOWN TO A HALF INCH...WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE SLIVER OF
MID-LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
BELOW TO THE POINT THAT EVEN CLOUDS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO
DEVELOP. THERE IS NO HOPE FOR STORMS WITH SUCH DRY AIR AND A HUGE
WARM INVERSION LAYER ALOFT CAPPING LIFT. ANOTHER DAY OF VERY WARM
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR RECORDS.

WEDNESDAY WILL MARK THE STAR OF THE REVERSAL IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT FOR THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FOCUS EAST AND
ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING IN GULF MOISTURE TO
THE EAST ZONES AND MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OUT OF N MEXICO TO THE WEST ZONES. AT THIS
TIME WE BELIEVE THE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH THAT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL NOT SEE ANY PCPN/STORMS. HOWEVER THERE ARE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THE SACS FOR THE WED PM HOURS. THURSDAY WE CONTINUE
THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND GET ALL OF THE ZONES IN POSITION TO SEE
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. PW`S WILL GET BACK UP TO 1" OR ABOVE
AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT WILL ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER AND DEEPER CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE BEGINNING OF
COOLER TEMPS DUE TO THE LOSS OF HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE AND MORE
CLOUDS IN A MORE MOIST AIRMASS.

FRIDAY ONWARD THE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY AS SEVERAL SUBTLE MODEL
DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR HUGE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
OUTCOME. THE FIRST QUESTION IS "HOW FAR EAST...AND FOR HOW
LONG...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE RECEDE TO THE EAST"? THIS TRANSITION
WILL AIDE THE AREA IN GETTING A RETURN OF MOISTURE. IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TROPICAL STORM "DOLLY" WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE MEXICAN
COAST S OF BROWNSVILLE AND TRACK ACROSS N MEXICO TOWARD OUR
REGION. TO OUR SOUTH A SECOND TROPICAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BECOME
TROPICAL CYCLONE "NORBERT". THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N
TOWARD THE BAJA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD TEAM UP TO ADD COPIOUS
MOISTURE TO THE FETCH THAT WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER MODELS ARE WAFFLING ON THAT VS.
SHOVING THE MOISTURE TO OUR WEST AND CONCENTRATING THAT PLUME OVER
AZ. THE FORMER SCENARIO WOULD GIVE OUR REGION VERY GOOD CHANCES AT
A WET PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE NEXT TUESDAY...AND THE ECMWF
MODEL FAVORS THAT OUTCOME. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE LATER OUTCOME
WITH MOST OF THE PCPN OVER AZ KEEPING. THIS KEEPS MUCH OF OUR REGION
MORE DRY THAN WET. THUS THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IS QUITE WIDE
AND CONFIDENCE IS MEAGER AT BEST.

OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR A THU-TUE DURATION OF SCATTERED
RAIN/STORMS OVER W AND MOUNTAIN ZONES...ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT THE FORECAST TO CHANGE...MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY...OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE FRI-TUE FORECAST PERIODS AS WE HUNT
FOR MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/12Z - 03/12Z...
VFR CONDS THRU PD. P6SM SKC-FEW120 THRU PD. WINDS W 5 TO 12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE TEENS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE SACS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WOULD BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REALLY MAKE A RETURN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY
STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                100  73  98  72  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           96  70  95  70  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              98  67  97  68  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              97  66  96  70  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              77  50  74  51  70 /   0   0  20  10  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   97  66  94  67  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             93  61  92  61  87 /   0   0   0   0  20
DEMING                  99  63  97  67  94 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               97  63  96  66  95 /   0   0   0   0  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      99  72  98  71  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY              100  70  98  71  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            99  74  97  74  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              93  70  93  67  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  97  71  96  72  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            99  70  97  68  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  69  95  69  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           96  63  96  66  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   98  65  97  67  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                96  67  95  68  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               97  69  96  71  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 85  56  83  57  78 /   0   0  10  10  20
MESCALERO               86  56  84  55  81 /   0   0  10  10  20
TIMBERON                86  54  84  57  80 /   0   0  10  10  20
WINSTON                 87  58  86  55  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
HILLSBORO               92  63  92  62  86 /   0   0   0   0  20
SPACEPORT               96  66  95  67  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            90  56  89  55  85 /   0   0   0   0  20
HURLEY                  94  61  94  62  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
CLIFF                   95  58  92  55  92 /   0   0   0   0  20
MULE CREEK              92  52  90  52  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
FAYWOOD                 92  62  92  62  86 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANIMAS                  95  67  95  67  93 /   0   0   0   0  20
HACHITA                 97  62  96  66  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          95  61  94  65  93 /   0   0   0   0  20
CLOVERDALE              93  63  93  63  91 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD





000
FXUS64 KMAF 020838
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
338 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Center of 5h anticyclone will be located INVOF SW NM/Far W TX
today and MSLP gradient will be tighter and farther w resulting in
stronger se winds that last longer. As such the surface trough and
associated thermal ridge will set up farther w. Consensus is that
85h temps will cool about 4C across the PB going from 31C to 27C
at MAF. Yesterday high temps where about 17F over 85h temps pointing
to a high of 98-100. However for areas farther w 85h temps will not be
much cooler and L100s will still be common in SE NM, wrn PB, Rio
Grande. Good news is that Wed/Thur 85h temps will continue to cool,
even into the M20C range in SE NM, wrn PB, Rio Grande where high
temps will fall back into the M90s/U90s. This cooler wx is in part
due to a pattern change as the 5h anticyclone develops well off to
the e and a much deeper e-se flow will be in place. In this pattern
change mid level mstr will have a chance to push into the area, at
least the Lower Trans Pecos/srn PB. As usual there are model differences
GFS/Canadian are dry and NAM12/ECMWF are more moist. Still too difficult
to make a binary decision and as such will opt to include low order
PoPs in aforementioned areas Thur/Fri. Models agree that a cold front
will mostly remain to the n into the extended forecast, with ECMWF
the outlier sagging the front into PB next Sunday with mid level
ridging in place? Seems best scenario for front to arrive this far
s would be thru convective enhancement. Mid level wly will likely
sag farther s in the Mon/Tue time frame which would allow for theta-e
ridge across the swrn states to move into at least the wrn CWFA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  71  94  70  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  76  95  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  71  98  70  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  99  78  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  71  90  71  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          98  67  90  64  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                  100  67  93  66  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   94  59  87  59  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   100  73  94  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  73  92  73  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   105  76  95  73  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS64 KAMA 020728
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
228 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE BEST LIFT. LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS MORNING.

AFTER TODAY...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS INCREASE WHEN THE NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
THIS WAY FROM THE EAST.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AND
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL GO UP. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
BROUGHT OVER THE PANHANDLES IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIFT
WILL INCREASE AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WE COULD SEE A DRYING TREND BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS IT WILL BE HARD TO FORECAST
JUST WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
"COOLEST" TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK THE LATEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY TO FORECAST ONCE THE RAIN
SETS IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF SOME AREAS REMAIN IN THE
CLOUDS WITH RAIN ON ONE OF THOSE DAYS...THEN HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT
OF THE 70S...BUT IF SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH LONG ENOUGH...IT
WILL NOT BE TOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80S.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL GET STRONGER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR THE MOST PART. FUELS WILL REMAIN OUT OF CRITICAL
RANGES AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                94  69  94  67  92 /   5  10   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  90  71  98  72  95 /  20  10  10   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              88  65  94  65  91 /   5   5  10   5  10
BORGER TX                  95  72  97  71  96 /   5  10   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              93  69  95  69  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  93  67  93  66  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               96  68  94  68  93 /   5  10   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 91  65  96  64  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  90  68  99  69  95 /   5  10  10   5   5
HEREFORD TX                94  66  93  64  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                92  72  95  71  93 /  20  10  10   5   5
PAMPA TX                   93  68  94  67  92 /  10  10   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                94  71  94  70  93 /  10  10   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              96  73  95  73  94 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/15





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020603 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
103 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW PASSING LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE OUTER
RAIN BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVE
INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE VICINITY
OF LOCAL AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE EVENING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVE INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TUES MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NEXT 36 HOURS BEGINS
TRANSITION FROM INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK OVER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE LURKING IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PW VALUES THIS
MORNING WERE ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY AND SLOWLY BUILD IT AS THE GULF FEATURE DRIFTS WNW.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUAL FEED OF
STREAMER SHOWERS UPSTREAM FRO THE VALLEY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...BUT
HI PW SIGNAL WILL MEAN ANY SHOWER WILL PROVIDE AMPLE RAINFALL IN A
SMALL AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE. TOMORROW THE DISTURBANCE IS IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE H5
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...THE GULF FEATURE
WILL LIKELY DEFLECT WWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MEXICO COAST. INSTABILITY
AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FEATURE AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
ENTIRE PARCEL WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
BACK BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER...KEEPING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.

PW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HEATING INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING IN FRO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING HEAVIER RAINFALL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH FAVOR DEVELOPMENT BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WX RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE
THAT FEEDS NORTH ON THE LARGER SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW DOMINATING THE
GULF.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE EARLY
LONG TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD
BETTER THAN EVEN ODDS...OR 50 PERCENT...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY
CASE...A FEW DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A
FEW INCHES DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A
HEAVILY LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH POPS WED THROUGH
THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND WILL THUS TREND
DOWN CONV CHCS INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE TROPICAL FEED SHIFTS
WEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...OPTED TO GO WITH A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH
DAY 7. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT WED AND THURS AS
CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT
LATER AS CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A LITTLE MORE DIURNAL HEATING IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND...AND CONDITIONS WILL RECOVER WITH LOWER...MORE TYPICAL
MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT LIKELY A
BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW NORMAL. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR EVEN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK...INCLUDING
EASTERN SECTIONS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AGITATION FORECAST FOR THE
MARINE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH
SOME WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
START TO INCREASE LATER TOMORROW...WITH SEAS REACHING 6 TO 7 FEET
FOR THE GULF WATERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20NM TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
TROPICAL FEATURE MOVES INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY DUE TO SWELL FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. SOUTH
EAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THE ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND THE ASSOC SWELL GENERATING WINDS DECREASE.
THURSDAY WILL THEREFORE BE MORE OF A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
DAY. FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE WINDS AND
WAVES...WITH LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PART
AND PARCEL OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020603 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
103 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW PASSING LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE OUTER
RAIN BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVE
INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE VICINITY
OF LOCAL AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE EVENING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVE INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TUES MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NEXT 36 HOURS BEGINS
TRANSITION FROM INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK OVER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE LURKING IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PW VALUES THIS
MORNING WERE ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY AND SLOWLY BUILD IT AS THE GULF FEATURE DRIFTS WNW.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUAL FEED OF
STREAMER SHOWERS UPSTREAM FRO THE VALLEY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...BUT
HI PW SIGNAL WILL MEAN ANY SHOWER WILL PROVIDE AMPLE RAINFALL IN A
SMALL AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE. TOMORROW THE DISTURBANCE IS IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE H5
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...THE GULF FEATURE
WILL LIKELY DEFLECT WWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MEXICO COAST. INSTABILITY
AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FEATURE AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
ENTIRE PARCEL WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
BACK BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER...KEEPING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.

PW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HEATING INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING IN FRO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING HEAVIER RAINFALL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH FAVOR DEVELOPMENT BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WX RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE
THAT FEEDS NORTH ON THE LARGER SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW DOMINATING THE
GULF.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE EARLY
LONG TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD
BETTER THAN EVEN ODDS...OR 50 PERCENT...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY
CASE...A FEW DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A
FEW INCHES DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A
HEAVILY LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH POPS WED THROUGH
THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND WILL THUS TREND
DOWN CONV CHCS INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE TROPICAL FEED SHIFTS
WEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...OPTED TO GO WITH A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH
DAY 7. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT WED AND THURS AS
CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT
LATER AS CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A LITTLE MORE DIURNAL HEATING IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND...AND CONDITIONS WILL RECOVER WITH LOWER...MORE TYPICAL
MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT LIKELY A
BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW NORMAL. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR EVEN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK...INCLUDING
EASTERN SECTIONS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AGITATION FORECAST FOR THE
MARINE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH
SOME WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
START TO INCREASE LATER TOMORROW...WITH SEAS REACHING 6 TO 7 FEET
FOR THE GULF WATERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20NM TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
TROPICAL FEATURE MOVES INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY DUE TO SWELL FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. SOUTH
EAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THE ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND THE ASSOC SWELL GENERATING WINDS DECREASE.
THURSDAY WILL THEREFORE BE MORE OF A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
DAY. FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE WINDS AND
WAVES...WITH LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PART
AND PARCEL OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63






000
FXUS64 KCRP 020537 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1237 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S.
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM BETWEEN 08-09Z OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AND REACHING LRD AREA BETWEEN 10-14Z. LIGHT LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WILL LEAD TO FOG FORMING THERE
AROUND 09Z WITH MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED BUT IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. THE
GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS VERY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL
AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND EARLY THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND AND TO
THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS BUT IFR VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL AFFECT LRD AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MVFR CEILINGS MOVING BACK INTO THE CRP AREA BY 03-06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  88  77  91  78  /  30  70  40  40  20
VICTORIA          77  92  76  94  76  /  20  50  20  30  10
LAREDO            79  93  78  95  79  /  10  60  30  40  30
ALICE             77  88  75  92  76  /  20  70  30  40  20
ROCKPORT          81  88  79  90  80  /  30  60  30  40  20
COTULLA           77  93  76  93  76  /  10  40  30  40  30
KINGSVILLE        78  88  76  91  77  /  30  70  40  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  88  79  90  81  /  30  70  40  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 020537 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1237 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S.
EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM BETWEEN 08-09Z OVER THE
INLAND AREAS AND REACHING LRD AREA BETWEEN 10-14Z. LIGHT LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WILL LEAD TO FOG FORMING THERE
AROUND 09Z WITH MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED BUT IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. THE
GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS VERY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL
AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND EARLY THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND AND TO
THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS BUT IFR VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL AFFECT LRD AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MVFR CEILINGS MOVING BACK INTO THE CRP AREA BY 03-06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  88  77  91  78  /  30  70  40  40  20
VICTORIA          77  92  76  94  76  /  20  50  20  30  10
LAREDO            79  93  78  95  79  /  10  60  30  40  30
ALICE             77  88  75  92  76  /  20  70  30  40  20
ROCKPORT          81  88  79  90  80  /  30  60  30  40  20
COTULLA           77  93  76  93  76  /  10  40  30  40  30
KINGSVILLE        78  88  76  91  77  /  30  70  40  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       81  88  79  90  81  /  30  70  40  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KMAF 020515
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
mainly be out of the south to southeast.  Elevated winds will
continue through most of the night as a low-level jet moves over the
area.  Winds will once again pick up in intensity Tuesday
morning/afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

UPDATE...

Updated forecast to remove isolated PoPs from the Davis Mountains
and surrounding areas.

DISCUSSION...

Storms have dissipated across the area with sunset. Tonight should
remain quiet with increasing southerly winds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows the broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS has moved north over the
past 24 hrs.  As a result, fairly benign wx will persist over the
next week, w/rain chances slim to none aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.  Models also develop
convection in the Rio Grande Valley over the next couple of days,
and try and bring it into the lwr Trans Pecos, but not by much.

Models are similar to 24 hrs ago in developing the upper ridge into
the Gulf Coast region over the next few days, w/temps on the decline
after this afternoon as thicknesses decrease as the ridge moves
east.  Models still exhibit Significant differences in the strength
of the thermal ridge over the next few days.  The NAM remains the
coldest outlier, and appears to cool things off too quickly, and has
been running a bit cool the past few days.  The CMC and ARW came in
the warmest, w/the GFS, ECMWF, and NMM holding the middle ground.
W/the warmer solutions panning out the past few days, we`ve opted to
lean towards the warmer side of guidance.

Upper ridge is forecast to set up shop over the SE CONUS most of the
week, then build back west beginning Friday.  However, models
persist in bringing back a much weaker version than what`s over us
at the moment.  Temps should drop to just a notch above normal by
midweek, and stay there thru the weekend.  Big difference in the
extended models today is a cold front approaching the area Saturday
night.  The GFS stalls this feature in the Wrn Low Rolling Plains,
whereas the ECMWF brings it further into the CWA.  The 00Z ECMWF was
more confident in bringing it all the way to the Rio Grande, whereas
the latest run is more in line w/the GFS.  Models tend to be rather
obstreperous w/the first few cold fronts this time of year, so it
wouldn`t be surprising if the front didn`t make it into the FA at
all, and stalled or dissipated further north.  Finally, a glance at
NAEFS standardized anomalies for Sunday suggest the GFS is the
better solution.  Thus, we`ve leaned toward the warmer GFS, w/no
front.  If the front does make it as far as the GFS suggests, the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains may need some convection added Saturday
night.  For the time being, we`ll keep the grids dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 020515
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
mainly be out of the south to southeast.  Elevated winds will
continue through most of the night as a low-level jet moves over the
area.  Winds will once again pick up in intensity Tuesday
morning/afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

UPDATE...

Updated forecast to remove isolated PoPs from the Davis Mountains
and surrounding areas.

DISCUSSION...

Storms have dissipated across the area with sunset. Tonight should
remain quiet with increasing southerly winds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows the broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS has moved north over the
past 24 hrs.  As a result, fairly benign wx will persist over the
next week, w/rain chances slim to none aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.  Models also develop
convection in the Rio Grande Valley over the next couple of days,
and try and bring it into the lwr Trans Pecos, but not by much.

Models are similar to 24 hrs ago in developing the upper ridge into
the Gulf Coast region over the next few days, w/temps on the decline
after this afternoon as thicknesses decrease as the ridge moves
east.  Models still exhibit Significant differences in the strength
of the thermal ridge over the next few days.  The NAM remains the
coldest outlier, and appears to cool things off too quickly, and has
been running a bit cool the past few days.  The CMC and ARW came in
the warmest, w/the GFS, ECMWF, and NMM holding the middle ground.
W/the warmer solutions panning out the past few days, we`ve opted to
lean towards the warmer side of guidance.

Upper ridge is forecast to set up shop over the SE CONUS most of the
week, then build back west beginning Friday.  However, models
persist in bringing back a much weaker version than what`s over us
at the moment.  Temps should drop to just a notch above normal by
midweek, and stay there thru the weekend.  Big difference in the
extended models today is a cold front approaching the area Saturday
night.  The GFS stalls this feature in the Wrn Low Rolling Plains,
whereas the ECMWF brings it further into the CWA.  The 00Z ECMWF was
more confident in bringing it all the way to the Rio Grande, whereas
the latest run is more in line w/the GFS.  Models tend to be rather
obstreperous w/the first few cold fronts this time of year, so it
wouldn`t be surprising if the front didn`t make it into the FA at
all, and stalled or dissipated further north.  Finally, a glance at
NAEFS standardized anomalies for Sunday suggest the GFS is the
better solution.  Thus, we`ve leaned toward the warmer GFS, w/no
front.  If the front does make it as far as the GFS suggests, the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains may need some convection added Saturday
night.  For the time being, we`ll keep the grids dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KLUB 020447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. TSTM CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 10 PCT AT
EITHER TERMINAL ON TUESDAY THOUGH ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING QUITE STRONG GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HOT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH A SURFACE HEAT LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. LUBBOCK ALREADY HAS SURPASSED ITS PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORD WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. DRY-LINE
STILL FAIRLY DIFFUSE STRETCHING FROM TAHOKA THROUGH MATADOR INTO
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT VICINITY OF PALO DURO CANYON. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT SLIPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAS HUNG
UP THIS VICINITY THOUGH DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH THE WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HEAT LOW. BUT AREAS NORTH OF TULIA TO MULESHOE LINE ARE
YET A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH AND PROBABLY CLOSE TO THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WAS ALOFT AND WE HAVE
NOT YET SEEN A CUMULUS FIELD FILLING IN THROUGH THE DRY-LINE OR
SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST NOW
REACHING 100 DEGREES SO SHOULD SEE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
STILL SUPPORT SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE DRY-LINE FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS ALREADY INDICATED.
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN EAST OF THE DRY-LINE GIVING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY HIGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...WHILE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE NEAR 30 KNOTS
JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. SO WE STILL CONSIDER THERE TO BE
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS WELL SHOULD STORMS GET GOING. WE HAVE
RETAINED PREVIOUS COVERAGE AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET THEN GET A WEAKER SHOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
LESS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT DIP
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL
THUNDER CHANCE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE MAIN
LIMITERS. BUT HEATING ONCE MORE MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING SO HAVE RETAINED THAT PREVIOUS LOW MENTION.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT SHOWS HINTS OF BEGINNING TO ERODE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY...WE REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

BY LATE THURSDAY A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE EAST OUT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WHEN
AIDED BY MOISTURE FETCH FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN RIDGING
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. 31/00Z ECMWF INDICATED PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST...GFS
RUNS SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT...REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY LIFTING THE
TROUGH NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BUT 01/12Z
GFS DEEPENED THE TROUGH AND SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF...AN ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE 01/12Z ECMWF
DEEPENED THE PACIFIC TROUGH EVEN MORE...RESULTING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE 6DAY/7DAY TIME FRAME HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS FROM SLIGHT &
ISOLATED WHILE FULLY RECOGNIZING THE TREND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND...A QUICK PEEK BEYOND EVEN THE WEEKEND HAS BOTH MODELS
HINTING TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH ABSORBING THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE BAJA WHICH WOULD HAVE WET IMPLICATIONS FOR US AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  63  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     69  95  67  93  66 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     68  95  66  92  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  96  70  92  68 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  92  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  97  66  93  67 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     75  98  72  96  71 /  10  10  10  10   0
SPUR          73  97  72  95  70 /   0  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  72 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





000
FXUS64 KLUB 020447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. TSTM CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 10 PCT AT
EITHER TERMINAL ON TUESDAY THOUGH ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING QUITE STRONG GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HOT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH A SURFACE HEAT LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. LUBBOCK ALREADY HAS SURPASSED ITS PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORD WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. DRY-LINE
STILL FAIRLY DIFFUSE STRETCHING FROM TAHOKA THROUGH MATADOR INTO
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT VICINITY OF PALO DURO CANYON. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT SLIPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAS HUNG
UP THIS VICINITY THOUGH DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH THE WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HEAT LOW. BUT AREAS NORTH OF TULIA TO MULESHOE LINE ARE
YET A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH AND PROBABLY CLOSE TO THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WAS ALOFT AND WE HAVE
NOT YET SEEN A CUMULUS FIELD FILLING IN THROUGH THE DRY-LINE OR
SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST NOW
REACHING 100 DEGREES SO SHOULD SEE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
STILL SUPPORT SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE DRY-LINE FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS ALREADY INDICATED.
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN EAST OF THE DRY-LINE GIVING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY HIGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...WHILE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE NEAR 30 KNOTS
JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. SO WE STILL CONSIDER THERE TO BE
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS WELL SHOULD STORMS GET GOING. WE HAVE
RETAINED PREVIOUS COVERAGE AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET THEN GET A WEAKER SHOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
LESS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT DIP
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL
THUNDER CHANCE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE MAIN
LIMITERS. BUT HEATING ONCE MORE MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING SO HAVE RETAINED THAT PREVIOUS LOW MENTION.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT SHOWS HINTS OF BEGINNING TO ERODE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY...WE REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

BY LATE THURSDAY A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE EAST OUT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WHEN
AIDED BY MOISTURE FETCH FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN RIDGING
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. 31/00Z ECMWF INDICATED PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST...GFS
RUNS SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT...REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY LIFTING THE
TROUGH NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BUT 01/12Z
GFS DEEPENED THE TROUGH AND SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF...AN ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE 01/12Z ECMWF
DEEPENED THE PACIFIC TROUGH EVEN MORE...RESULTING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE 6DAY/7DAY TIME FRAME HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS FROM SLIGHT &
ISOLATED WHILE FULLY RECOGNIZING THE TREND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND...A QUICK PEEK BEYOND EVEN THE WEEKEND HAS BOTH MODELS
HINTING TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH ABSORBING THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE BAJA WHICH WOULD HAVE WET IMPLICATIONS FOR US AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  63  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     69  95  67  93  66 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     68  95  66  92  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  96  70  92  68 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  92  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  97  66  93  67 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     75  98  72  96  71 /  10  10  10  10   0
SPUR          73  97  72  95  70 /   0  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  72 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





000
FXUS64 KLUB 020447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. TSTM CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 10 PCT AT
EITHER TERMINAL ON TUESDAY THOUGH ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING QUITE STRONG GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HOT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH A SURFACE HEAT LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. LUBBOCK ALREADY HAS SURPASSED ITS PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORD WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. DRY-LINE
STILL FAIRLY DIFFUSE STRETCHING FROM TAHOKA THROUGH MATADOR INTO
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT VICINITY OF PALO DURO CANYON. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT SLIPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAS HUNG
UP THIS VICINITY THOUGH DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH THE WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HEAT LOW. BUT AREAS NORTH OF TULIA TO MULESHOE LINE ARE
YET A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH AND PROBABLY CLOSE TO THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WAS ALOFT AND WE HAVE
NOT YET SEEN A CUMULUS FIELD FILLING IN THROUGH THE DRY-LINE OR
SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST NOW
REACHING 100 DEGREES SO SHOULD SEE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
STILL SUPPORT SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE DRY-LINE FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS ALREADY INDICATED.
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN EAST OF THE DRY-LINE GIVING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY HIGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...WHILE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE NEAR 30 KNOTS
JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. SO WE STILL CONSIDER THERE TO BE
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS WELL SHOULD STORMS GET GOING. WE HAVE
RETAINED PREVIOUS COVERAGE AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET THEN GET A WEAKER SHOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
LESS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT DIP
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL
THUNDER CHANCE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE MAIN
LIMITERS. BUT HEATING ONCE MORE MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING SO HAVE RETAINED THAT PREVIOUS LOW MENTION.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT SHOWS HINTS OF BEGINNING TO ERODE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY...WE REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

BY LATE THURSDAY A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE EAST OUT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WHEN
AIDED BY MOISTURE FETCH FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN RIDGING
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. 31/00Z ECMWF INDICATED PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST...GFS
RUNS SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT...REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY LIFTING THE
TROUGH NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BUT 01/12Z
GFS DEEPENED THE TROUGH AND SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF...AN ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE 01/12Z ECMWF
DEEPENED THE PACIFIC TROUGH EVEN MORE...RESULTING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE 6DAY/7DAY TIME FRAME HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS FROM SLIGHT &
ISOLATED WHILE FULLY RECOGNIZING THE TREND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND...A QUICK PEEK BEYOND EVEN THE WEEKEND HAS BOTH MODELS
HINTING TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH ABSORBING THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE BAJA WHICH WOULD HAVE WET IMPLICATIONS FOR US AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  63  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     69  95  67  93  66 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     68  95  66  92  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  96  70  92  68 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  92  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  97  66  93  67 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     75  98  72  96  71 /  10  10  10  10   0
SPUR          73  97  72  95  70 /   0  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  72 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





000
FXUS64 KLUB 020447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. TSTM CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 10 PCT AT
EITHER TERMINAL ON TUESDAY THOUGH ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING QUITE STRONG GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HOT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH A SURFACE HEAT LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. LUBBOCK ALREADY HAS SURPASSED ITS PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORD WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. DRY-LINE
STILL FAIRLY DIFFUSE STRETCHING FROM TAHOKA THROUGH MATADOR INTO
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT VICINITY OF PALO DURO CANYON. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT SLIPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAS HUNG
UP THIS VICINITY THOUGH DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH THE WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HEAT LOW. BUT AREAS NORTH OF TULIA TO MULESHOE LINE ARE
YET A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH AND PROBABLY CLOSE TO THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WAS ALOFT AND WE HAVE
NOT YET SEEN A CUMULUS FIELD FILLING IN THROUGH THE DRY-LINE OR
SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST NOW
REACHING 100 DEGREES SO SHOULD SEE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
STILL SUPPORT SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE DRY-LINE FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS ALREADY INDICATED.
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN EAST OF THE DRY-LINE GIVING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY HIGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...WHILE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE NEAR 30 KNOTS
JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. SO WE STILL CONSIDER THERE TO BE
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS WELL SHOULD STORMS GET GOING. WE HAVE
RETAINED PREVIOUS COVERAGE AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET THEN GET A WEAKER SHOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
LESS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT DIP
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL
THUNDER CHANCE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE MAIN
LIMITERS. BUT HEATING ONCE MORE MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING SO HAVE RETAINED THAT PREVIOUS LOW MENTION.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT SHOWS HINTS OF BEGINNING TO ERODE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY...WE REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

BY LATE THURSDAY A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE EAST OUT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WHEN
AIDED BY MOISTURE FETCH FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN RIDGING
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. 31/00Z ECMWF INDICATED PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST...GFS
RUNS SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT...REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY LIFTING THE
TROUGH NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BUT 01/12Z
GFS DEEPENED THE TROUGH AND SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF...AN ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE 01/12Z ECMWF
DEEPENED THE PACIFIC TROUGH EVEN MORE...RESULTING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE 6DAY/7DAY TIME FRAME HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS FROM SLIGHT &
ISOLATED WHILE FULLY RECOGNIZING THE TREND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND...A QUICK PEEK BEYOND EVEN THE WEEKEND HAS BOTH MODELS
HINTING TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH ABSORBING THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE BAJA WHICH WOULD HAVE WET IMPLICATIONS FOR US AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  63  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     69  95  67  93  66 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     68  95  66  92  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  96  70  92  68 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  92  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  97  66  93  67 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     75  98  72  96  71 /  10  10  10  10   0
SPUR          73  97  72  95  70 /   0  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  72 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





000
FXUS64 KHGX 020442
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...
SO FAR THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GETTING TO THE COASTLINE AND
DISSIPATING BUT THE NEXT FEW MAY GET FURTHER INLAND. DEEPER
MOISTURE STILL OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT IT IS COMING THIS WAY.
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAFS ARE MINOR...DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE MVFR
CIGS BY AN HOUR OR TWO BUT STILL ROUGHLY 08-11Z. SHOWERS SHOULD
SPREAD INLAND TO HOU/IAH HUBS BY 12-15Z AND THEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LOSS OF THE CAP EXPECT SHRA TO
TRANSITION TO SHRA/TSRA 16-18Z. STORMS SHOULD MOVE AT 15 KNOTS OR
SO CAN`T RULE OUT A HIT AT ONE OF THE AIRPORTS BUT AT LEAST IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS INLAND AND
BY EARLY EVENING THE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TERMINALS AND
WITH LESS COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT THANKS TO DRIER AIR AND
MORE SUBSIDENCE.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING WITH A
BIT MORE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION
THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PLANNED FOR THE UP-
DATE AS A QUICK PEEK AT INCOMING MODELS/OTHER SHORT-RANGE PROGS
REMAIN RATHER INSISTENT ON AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE FOR TOMORROW.

FOR THE MARINE FCST...HAVE INCREASED WINDS/EXTENDED SCEC AS PER
ONGOING TRENDS. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
STORMS INLAND HAVE NEARLY ALL DISSIPATED BUT THE GULF IS MORE
ACTIVE AND GOES SOUNDER SHOWS 2.1-2.2" PW MARCHING INTO THE THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE COINCIDENTALLY THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST BUT WILL BE FIGHTING THE SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BY 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CREEP INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. HAVE VCSH FOR GLS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF SCT
TO BKN CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS AT CXO AND MAY COME CLOSE AT
UTS/CLL BUT DON`T EXPECT THE FOG OR DENSE FOG THAT HAPPENED EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND FOR NOW HAVE VICINITY SHRA/TSRA AND TEMPO
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOU/IAH HUBS BETWEEN 16-21Z WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES LIE FOR THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY.
DRIER AIR SHOULD FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AND LESS COVERAGE. 45

CLIMATE...
THE CLIMATOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45



000
FXUS64 KHGX 020442
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...
SO FAR THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GETTING TO THE COASTLINE AND
DISSIPATING BUT THE NEXT FEW MAY GET FURTHER INLAND. DEEPER
MOISTURE STILL OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT IT IS COMING THIS WAY.
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAFS ARE MINOR...DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE MVFR
CIGS BY AN HOUR OR TWO BUT STILL ROUGHLY 08-11Z. SHOWERS SHOULD
SPREAD INLAND TO HOU/IAH HUBS BY 12-15Z AND THEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LOSS OF THE CAP EXPECT SHRA TO
TRANSITION TO SHRA/TSRA 16-18Z. STORMS SHOULD MOVE AT 15 KNOTS OR
SO CAN`T RULE OUT A HIT AT ONE OF THE AIRPORTS BUT AT LEAST IT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS INLAND AND
BY EARLY EVENING THE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TERMINALS AND
WITH LESS COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT THANKS TO DRIER AIR AND
MORE SUBSIDENCE.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING WITH A
BIT MORE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION
THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PLANNED FOR THE UP-
DATE AS A QUICK PEEK AT INCOMING MODELS/OTHER SHORT-RANGE PROGS
REMAIN RATHER INSISTENT ON AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE FOR TOMORROW.

FOR THE MARINE FCST...HAVE INCREASED WINDS/EXTENDED SCEC AS PER
ONGOING TRENDS. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
STORMS INLAND HAVE NEARLY ALL DISSIPATED BUT THE GULF IS MORE
ACTIVE AND GOES SOUNDER SHOWS 2.1-2.2" PW MARCHING INTO THE THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE COINCIDENTALLY THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST BUT WILL BE FIGHTING THE SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BY 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CREEP INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. HAVE VCSH FOR GLS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF SCT
TO BKN CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS AT CXO AND MAY COME CLOSE AT
UTS/CLL BUT DON`T EXPECT THE FOG OR DENSE FOG THAT HAPPENED EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND FOR NOW HAVE VICINITY SHRA/TSRA AND TEMPO
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOU/IAH HUBS BETWEEN 16-21Z WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES LIE FOR THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY.
DRIER AIR SHOULD FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AND LESS COVERAGE. 45

CLIMATE...
THE CLIMATOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KFWD 020430
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1130 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE WILL BECOME BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY A
PERIOD OF MVFR DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS AS STRATUS SPREADS
NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WE HAVE NOW INCLUDED
MVFR CIGS INDESCRIMINANTLY BASED ON THE MOST RECENT MODEL
DATA...WITH ONSET AT 08Z IN KACT AND 11-12Z IN THE METROPLEX. CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE 15-17Z TIMEFRAME...OTHERWISE PERSISTENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

30

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STALL BEFORE MAKING MUCH MORE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING...AND STEERING FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS FEATURES
STRONG CIN WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THERE
MAY BE A TINY BIT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES BY MORNING FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS...BUT
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF ANY OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION TO REMAIN
IN OKLAHOMA. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 10 PERCENT IN THIS AREA BUT WILL
KEEP THE WORDED FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE...A QUIET AND SEASONABLY
MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE/STRATUS NORTHWARD...WHICH WILL IMPACT ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THIS MORNING/S STRATUS INTRUSION.

MEANWHILE A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE APPEARS TO
BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE THE TROPICAL LOW CENTER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ON A WEST/NORTHWEST TRACK INTO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO...THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS
COASTLINE TOMORROW WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTAIN
AMPLE UNCAPPED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER DUE TO LIMITED LIFT...WILL
KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE...WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.
SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION JUST HOT AND DRY. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO KEEP
THE REMNANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE/CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITH MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FORCED INTO AND RUNG OUT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO COOL A DEGREE OR TWO BY FRIDAY...BUT STILL
THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. SINCE THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOLER AIR...AND THEREFORE ONLY A
VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL PUT TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED FOR ANY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

TR.92




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  97  78  97  77 /   0   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              78  98  76  97  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             74  93  74  94  73 /   5  10  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            78  96  75  96  75 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          77  95  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  97  78  97  78 /   0  10  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  76  96  74 /   5  20  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  75  96  74 /   5  20  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  98  74  98  72 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 020430
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1130 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE WILL BECOME BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY A
PERIOD OF MVFR DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS AS STRATUS SPREADS
NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WE HAVE NOW INCLUDED
MVFR CIGS INDESCRIMINANTLY BASED ON THE MOST RECENT MODEL
DATA...WITH ONSET AT 08Z IN KACT AND 11-12Z IN THE METROPLEX. CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE 15-17Z TIMEFRAME...OTHERWISE PERSISTENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

30

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STALL BEFORE MAKING MUCH MORE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING...AND STEERING FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS FEATURES
STRONG CIN WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THERE
MAY BE A TINY BIT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES BY MORNING FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS...BUT
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF ANY OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION TO REMAIN
IN OKLAHOMA. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 10 PERCENT IN THIS AREA BUT WILL
KEEP THE WORDED FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE...A QUIET AND SEASONABLY
MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE/STRATUS NORTHWARD...WHICH WILL IMPACT ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THIS MORNING/S STRATUS INTRUSION.

MEANWHILE A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE APPEARS TO
BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE THE TROPICAL LOW CENTER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ON A WEST/NORTHWEST TRACK INTO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO...THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS
COASTLINE TOMORROW WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTAIN
AMPLE UNCAPPED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER DUE TO LIMITED LIFT...WILL
KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE...WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.
SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION JUST HOT AND DRY. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO KEEP
THE REMNANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE/CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITH MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FORCED INTO AND RUNG OUT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO COOL A DEGREE OR TWO BY FRIDAY...BUT STILL
THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. SINCE THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOLER AIR...AND THEREFORE ONLY A
VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL PUT TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED FOR ANY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

TR.92




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  97  78  97  77 /   0   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              78  98  76  97  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             74  93  74  94  73 /   5  10  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            78  96  75  96  75 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          77  95  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  97  78  97  78 /   0  10  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  76  96  74 /   5  20  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  75  96  74 /   5  20  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  98  74  98  72 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KEWX 020426
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1126 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE FOG/LOW-CLOUD ENHANCEMENT IS
ALREADY SHOWING THE FIRST SIGNS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING EAST OF
KPEZ. WE STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS STRATUS AT THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-16Z. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR FROM 16-21Z UNTIL MIXING FINALLY
BRINGS SCT CLOUDS AFTER 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS FROM 12-16Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AFTER 16Z AT KDRT...AND
FROM 21Z-03Z AT THE I-35 SITES. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT
THE I-35 SITES AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO UPDATE WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR WITH MODERATE WINDS THROUGH 06Z. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP AT THE I-35 SITES AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...ALTHOUGH BKN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM
12-16Z. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES A LITTLE AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  97  77  96  75 /   0  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  97  74  96  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  77  94  74 /   0  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  95  76  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  94  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  96  75  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  96  76  96  76 /  10  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  77  96  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  98  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24





000
FXUS64 KEWX 020426
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1126 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE FOG/LOW-CLOUD ENHANCEMENT IS
ALREADY SHOWING THE FIRST SIGNS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING EAST OF
KPEZ. WE STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS STRATUS AT THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-16Z. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR FROM 16-21Z UNTIL MIXING FINALLY
BRINGS SCT CLOUDS AFTER 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS FROM 12-16Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AFTER 16Z AT KDRT...AND
FROM 21Z-03Z AT THE I-35 SITES. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT
THE I-35 SITES AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO UPDATE WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR WITH MODERATE WINDS THROUGH 06Z. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP AT THE I-35 SITES AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...ALTHOUGH BKN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM
12-16Z. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES A LITTLE AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  97  77  96  75 /   0  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  97  74  96  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  77  94  74 /   0  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  95  76  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  94  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  96  75  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  96  76  96  76 /  10  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  77  96  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  98  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24






000
FXUS64 KAMA 020421 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1121 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

AT KAMA...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO EDGE IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT TO NOT
BE OF SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO CONSTITUTE A CEILING.  THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVERNIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND TO SOUTHEAST
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS
RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEAR KAMA...BUT EXPECT THAT MOST
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EAST OF KAMA.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR MASS WILL ADVECT RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY 60
CORRIDOR. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG IN THESE
SAME AREAS AFTER 4 AM, BUT VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 AM TUESDAY, BUT THE
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WE`LL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES TO SEE RAIN:
1) WITH BACKBUILDING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. IF THESE SOMEHOW
BACKBUILD INTO OUR AREA, LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO
CLARENDON LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF BEING IMPACTED.
2) WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY.

HOWEVER, CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT ARE NOT VERY
HIGH.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KAMA.

AT KDHT AND KGUY, HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP 10Z-17Z AND 07Z-16Z, RESPECTIVELY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
LIFR CONDITIONS COULD EVEN BRIEFLY DEVELOP.

A FEW SHRA/TSRA COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT,
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KGUY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA TO ALSO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KAMA AFTER 20Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

JACKSON

UPDATE...
CUMULUS ARE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE,
BUT THESE TOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES. 0000 UTC
KAMA RAOB DATA SHOW A WEAKER CAP THAN YESTERDAY, BUT IT`S STILL QUITE
APPARENT. APART FROM SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE,
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR VERY SLIM WITH NO BACKGROUND
FORCING FOR ASCENT PRESENT. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, IT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO CLARENDON LINE.

WE`LL LIKELY HAVE TO DO A FORECAST UPDATE ONCE THE NEWEST MODEL AND
UPPER AIR DATA ROLL IN AS IT APPEARS THAT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT IN THE FORECAST AS GOING PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE OVERALL IDEA OF A WARM DRY WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WETTER WEEKEND STILL REMAINS VALID THOUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT FUZZY DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
PICKING UP WED AND THU OUT OF THE SW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN THU NIGHT AND KEEPING THE FRONT AROUND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS PREFERENCE...HAVE TRIMMED
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LEFT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13





000
FXUS64 KAMA 020421 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1121 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

AT KAMA...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO EDGE IN FROM THE NORTH...BUT TO NOT
BE OF SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO CONSTITUTE A CEILING.  THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVERNIGHT.  SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND TO SOUTHEAST
IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS
RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEAR KAMA...BUT EXPECT THAT MOST
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EAST OF KAMA.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR MASS WILL ADVECT RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY 60
CORRIDOR. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG IN THESE
SAME AREAS AFTER 4 AM, BUT VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 AM TUESDAY, BUT THE
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WE`LL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES TO SEE RAIN:
1) WITH BACKBUILDING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. IF THESE SOMEHOW
BACKBUILD INTO OUR AREA, LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO
CLARENDON LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF BEING IMPACTED.
2) WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY.

HOWEVER, CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT ARE NOT VERY
HIGH.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KAMA.

AT KDHT AND KGUY, HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP 10Z-17Z AND 07Z-16Z, RESPECTIVELY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
LIFR CONDITIONS COULD EVEN BRIEFLY DEVELOP.

A FEW SHRA/TSRA COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT,
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KGUY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA TO ALSO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KAMA AFTER 20Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

JACKSON

UPDATE...
CUMULUS ARE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE,
BUT THESE TOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES. 0000 UTC
KAMA RAOB DATA SHOW A WEAKER CAP THAN YESTERDAY, BUT IT`S STILL QUITE
APPARENT. APART FROM SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE,
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR VERY SLIM WITH NO BACKGROUND
FORCING FOR ASCENT PRESENT. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, IT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO CLARENDON LINE.

WE`LL LIKELY HAVE TO DO A FORECAST UPDATE ONCE THE NEWEST MODEL AND
UPPER AIR DATA ROLL IN AS IT APPEARS THAT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT IN THE FORECAST AS GOING PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE OVERALL IDEA OF A WARM DRY WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WETTER WEEKEND STILL REMAINS VALID THOUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT FUZZY DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
PICKING UP WED AND THU OUT OF THE SW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN THU NIGHT AND KEEPING THE FRONT AROUND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS PREFERENCE...HAVE TRIMMED
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LEFT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/13






000
FXUS64 KSJT 020404
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1104 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Uncertainty remains in exactly
how far north the stratus will advance, so for now, VFR conditions
were continued at KSJT. VFR conditions will return to all sites
between 14z and 15z. Generally south winds of 6 to 12 knots are
forecast through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. More uncertainty remains at
KSJT, so for now, VFR conditions were continued. VFR conditions will
return to all sites between 14z and 15z. South winds of 6 to 12
knots, with higher gusts, can be expected through Tuesday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

No significant changes made to the short term. We will continue to
see hot and muggy conditions. Heat index values across the area were
around 100 degrees between 2 and 3 this afternoon with a hot spot of
106 at Weinert. Very little change in the overall pattern will take
place between today and tomorrow. A sprawling upper level ridge will
remain in place across the southern half of the CONUS, with a strong
thermal ridge in the low levels across west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. So, will go with a persistence forecast for the most part.
Expect highs again from the mid 90s along the I-10 corridor to the
102 degree range north of I-20 where the thermal ridge will be
strongest for our area. Overnight, lows should fall into the lower
to upper 70s. Many locations this morning only got down to around 75
or 76 degrees, and with very warm afternoon highs again today, warm
overnight lows should also persist. With the upper level ridge in
control, the dry forecast will continue.

20

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The upper high will become centered over Arkansas on Wednesday, and
over northern Mississippi on Thursday. As this occurs, a deeper
southeasterly flow will develop over much of Texas. The 12Z models
bring a weak disturbance or two up the Rio Grande Valley during that
time. This would be to the north of the tropical system currently
referenced by the National Hurricane Center. With the associated
moisture increase, precipitable water values are progged to
increase into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range across our southern
counties Wednesday into Thursday. This scenario may enable a
possibility for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
occur in the southern part of our area. Would like to see another
consistent model run, however, before adding mentionable PoPs.

Some weakening of the 850mb thermal ridge is indicated for the
middle to late part of the week. With a bit of increased daytime
cloud cover, expect highs to ease back a few degrees across our
area.

The forecast is somewhat problematic for next weekend. The 12Z GFS
and ECMWF shift the center of the upper high back to the west over
Texas. With an upper trough moving across parts of southern Canada,
both models bring the trailing portion of associated cold front
south into Texas next Saturday. Indications are for the front to
probably stall somewhere over our area, and both models have QPF
with the front. Surface high north of the front is progged to be
fairly strong for this time of year (over 1020mb), and could have
the effective front being driven south by convection. Have quite
a bit of uncertainty at this point on the details, however. Appears
that our northern counties would have the better chance of being
affected by the front and associated convection. Carrying slight
chance PoPs for that area Saturday night into Sunday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  96  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  76  99  74  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  10
Junction  74  95  73  92  73 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 020404
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1104 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Uncertainty remains in exactly
how far north the stratus will advance, so for now, VFR conditions
were continued at KSJT. VFR conditions will return to all sites
between 14z and 15z. Generally south winds of 6 to 12 knots are
forecast through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. More uncertainty remains at
KSJT, so for now, VFR conditions were continued. VFR conditions will
return to all sites between 14z and 15z. South winds of 6 to 12
knots, with higher gusts, can be expected through Tuesday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

No significant changes made to the short term. We will continue to
see hot and muggy conditions. Heat index values across the area were
around 100 degrees between 2 and 3 this afternoon with a hot spot of
106 at Weinert. Very little change in the overall pattern will take
place between today and tomorrow. A sprawling upper level ridge will
remain in place across the southern half of the CONUS, with a strong
thermal ridge in the low levels across west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. So, will go with a persistence forecast for the most part.
Expect highs again from the mid 90s along the I-10 corridor to the
102 degree range north of I-20 where the thermal ridge will be
strongest for our area. Overnight, lows should fall into the lower
to upper 70s. Many locations this morning only got down to around 75
or 76 degrees, and with very warm afternoon highs again today, warm
overnight lows should also persist. With the upper level ridge in
control, the dry forecast will continue.

20

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The upper high will become centered over Arkansas on Wednesday, and
over northern Mississippi on Thursday. As this occurs, a deeper
southeasterly flow will develop over much of Texas. The 12Z models
bring a weak disturbance or two up the Rio Grande Valley during that
time. This would be to the north of the tropical system currently
referenced by the National Hurricane Center. With the associated
moisture increase, precipitable water values are progged to
increase into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range across our southern
counties Wednesday into Thursday. This scenario may enable a
possibility for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
occur in the southern part of our area. Would like to see another
consistent model run, however, before adding mentionable PoPs.

Some weakening of the 850mb thermal ridge is indicated for the
middle to late part of the week. With a bit of increased daytime
cloud cover, expect highs to ease back a few degrees across our
area.

The forecast is somewhat problematic for next weekend. The 12Z GFS
and ECMWF shift the center of the upper high back to the west over
Texas. With an upper trough moving across parts of southern Canada,
both models bring the trailing portion of associated cold front
south into Texas next Saturday. Indications are for the front to
probably stall somewhere over our area, and both models have QPF
with the front. Surface high north of the front is progged to be
fairly strong for this time of year (over 1020mb), and could have
the effective front being driven south by convection. Have quite
a bit of uncertainty at this point on the details, however. Appears
that our northern counties would have the better chance of being
affected by the front and associated convection. Carrying slight
chance PoPs for that area Saturday night into Sunday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  96  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  76  99  74  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  10
Junction  74  95  73  92  73 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 020404
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1104 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Uncertainty remains in exactly
how far north the stratus will advance, so for now, VFR conditions
were continued at KSJT. VFR conditions will return to all sites
between 14z and 15z. Generally south winds of 6 to 12 knots are
forecast through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. More uncertainty remains at
KSJT, so for now, VFR conditions were continued. VFR conditions will
return to all sites between 14z and 15z. South winds of 6 to 12
knots, with higher gusts, can be expected through Tuesday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

No significant changes made to the short term. We will continue to
see hot and muggy conditions. Heat index values across the area were
around 100 degrees between 2 and 3 this afternoon with a hot spot of
106 at Weinert. Very little change in the overall pattern will take
place between today and tomorrow. A sprawling upper level ridge will
remain in place across the southern half of the CONUS, with a strong
thermal ridge in the low levels across west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. So, will go with a persistence forecast for the most part.
Expect highs again from the mid 90s along the I-10 corridor to the
102 degree range north of I-20 where the thermal ridge will be
strongest for our area. Overnight, lows should fall into the lower
to upper 70s. Many locations this morning only got down to around 75
or 76 degrees, and with very warm afternoon highs again today, warm
overnight lows should also persist. With the upper level ridge in
control, the dry forecast will continue.

20

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The upper high will become centered over Arkansas on Wednesday, and
over northern Mississippi on Thursday. As this occurs, a deeper
southeasterly flow will develop over much of Texas. The 12Z models
bring a weak disturbance or two up the Rio Grande Valley during that
time. This would be to the north of the tropical system currently
referenced by the National Hurricane Center. With the associated
moisture increase, precipitable water values are progged to
increase into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range across our southern
counties Wednesday into Thursday. This scenario may enable a
possibility for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
occur in the southern part of our area. Would like to see another
consistent model run, however, before adding mentionable PoPs.

Some weakening of the 850mb thermal ridge is indicated for the
middle to late part of the week. With a bit of increased daytime
cloud cover, expect highs to ease back a few degrees across our
area.

The forecast is somewhat problematic for next weekend. The 12Z GFS
and ECMWF shift the center of the upper high back to the west over
Texas. With an upper trough moving across parts of southern Canada,
both models bring the trailing portion of associated cold front
south into Texas next Saturday. Indications are for the front to
probably stall somewhere over our area, and both models have QPF
with the front. Surface high north of the front is progged to be
fairly strong for this time of year (over 1020mb), and could have
the effective front being driven south by convection. Have quite
a bit of uncertainty at this point on the details, however. Appears
that our northern counties would have the better chance of being
affected by the front and associated convection. Carrying slight
chance PoPs for that area Saturday night into Sunday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  96  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  76  99  74  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  10
Junction  74  95  73  92  73 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 020404
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1104 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Uncertainty remains in exactly
how far north the stratus will advance, so for now, VFR conditions
were continued at KSJT. VFR conditions will return to all sites
between 14z and 15z. Generally south winds of 6 to 12 knots are
forecast through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. More uncertainty remains at
KSJT, so for now, VFR conditions were continued. VFR conditions will
return to all sites between 14z and 15z. South winds of 6 to 12
knots, with higher gusts, can be expected through Tuesday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

No significant changes made to the short term. We will continue to
see hot and muggy conditions. Heat index values across the area were
around 100 degrees between 2 and 3 this afternoon with a hot spot of
106 at Weinert. Very little change in the overall pattern will take
place between today and tomorrow. A sprawling upper level ridge will
remain in place across the southern half of the CONUS, with a strong
thermal ridge in the low levels across west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. So, will go with a persistence forecast for the most part.
Expect highs again from the mid 90s along the I-10 corridor to the
102 degree range north of I-20 where the thermal ridge will be
strongest for our area. Overnight, lows should fall into the lower
to upper 70s. Many locations this morning only got down to around 75
or 76 degrees, and with very warm afternoon highs again today, warm
overnight lows should also persist. With the upper level ridge in
control, the dry forecast will continue.

20

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The upper high will become centered over Arkansas on Wednesday, and
over northern Mississippi on Thursday. As this occurs, a deeper
southeasterly flow will develop over much of Texas. The 12Z models
bring a weak disturbance or two up the Rio Grande Valley during that
time. This would be to the north of the tropical system currently
referenced by the National Hurricane Center. With the associated
moisture increase, precipitable water values are progged to
increase into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range across our southern
counties Wednesday into Thursday. This scenario may enable a
possibility for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
occur in the southern part of our area. Would like to see another
consistent model run, however, before adding mentionable PoPs.

Some weakening of the 850mb thermal ridge is indicated for the
middle to late part of the week. With a bit of increased daytime
cloud cover, expect highs to ease back a few degrees across our
area.

The forecast is somewhat problematic for next weekend. The 12Z GFS
and ECMWF shift the center of the upper high back to the west over
Texas. With an upper trough moving across parts of southern Canada,
both models bring the trailing portion of associated cold front
south into Texas next Saturday. Indications are for the front to
probably stall somewhere over our area, and both models have QPF
with the front. Surface high north of the front is progged to be
fairly strong for this time of year (over 1020mb), and could have
the effective front being driven south by convection. Have quite
a bit of uncertainty at this point on the details, however. Appears
that our northern counties would have the better chance of being
affected by the front and associated convection. Carrying slight
chance PoPs for that area Saturday night into Sunday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  96  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  76  99  74  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  10
Junction  74  95  73  92  73 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KHGX 020314
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1014 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING WITH A
BIT MORE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION
THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PLANNED FOR THE UP-
DATE AS A QUICK PEEK AT INCOMING MODELS/OTHER SHORT-RANGE PROGS
REMAIN RATHER INSISTENT ON AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE FOR TOMORROW.

FOR THE MARINE FCST...HAVE INCREASED WINDS/EXTENDED SCEC AS PER
ONGOING TRENDS. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
STORMS INLAND HAVE NEARLY ALL DISSIPATED BUT THE GULF IS MORE
ACTIVE AND GOES SOUNDER SHOWS 2.1-2.2" PW MARCHING INTO THE THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE COINCIDENTALLY THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST BUT WILL BE FIGHTING THE SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BY 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CREEP INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. HAVE VCSH FOR GLS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF SCT
TO BKN CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS AT CXO AND MAY COME CLOSE AT
UTS/CLL BUT DON`T EXPECT THE FOG OR DENSE FOG THAT HAPPENED EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND FOR NOW HAVE VICINITY SHRA/TSRA AND TEMPO
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOU/IAH HUBS BETWEEN 16-21Z WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES LIE FOR THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY.
DRIER AIR SHOULD FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AND LESS COVERAGE. 45


CLIMATE...
THE CLIMATOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 020314
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1014 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEEING SOME ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING WITH A
BIT MORE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION
THAN THE PREVIOUS EVENING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PLANNED FOR THE UP-
DATE AS A QUICK PEEK AT INCOMING MODELS/OTHER SHORT-RANGE PROGS
REMAIN RATHER INSISTENT ON AT LEAST SCT COVERAGE FOR TOMORROW.

FOR THE MARINE FCST...HAVE INCREASED WINDS/EXTENDED SCEC AS PER
ONGOING TRENDS. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
STORMS INLAND HAVE NEARLY ALL DISSIPATED BUT THE GULF IS MORE
ACTIVE AND GOES SOUNDER SHOWS 2.1-2.2" PW MARCHING INTO THE THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE COINCIDENTALLY THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST BUT WILL BE FIGHTING THE SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BY 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CREEP INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. HAVE VCSH FOR GLS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF SCT
TO BKN CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS AT CXO AND MAY COME CLOSE AT
UTS/CLL BUT DON`T EXPECT THE FOG OR DENSE FOG THAT HAPPENED EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND FOR NOW HAVE VICINITY SHRA/TSRA AND TEMPO
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOU/IAH HUBS BETWEEN 16-21Z WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES LIE FOR THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY.
DRIER AIR SHOULD FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AND LESS COVERAGE. 45


CLIMATE...
THE CLIMATOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KAMA 020243 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
943 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR MASS WILL ADVECT RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY 60
CORRIDOR. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG IN THESE
SAME AREAS AFTER 4 AM, BUT VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 AM TUESDAY, BUT THE
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WE`LL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES TO SEE RAIN:
1) WITH BACKBUILDING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. IF THESE SOMEHOW
BACKBUILD INTO OUR AREA, LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO
CLARENDON LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF BEING IMPACTED.
2) WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY.

HOWEVER, CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT ARE NOT VERY
HIGH.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KAMA.

AT KDHT AND KGUY, HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP 10Z-17Z AND 07Z-16Z, RESPECTIVELY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
LIFR CONDITIONS COULD EVEN BRIEFLY DEVELOP.

A FEW SHRA/TSRA COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT,
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KGUY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA TO ALSO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KAMA AFTER 20Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

JACKSON

UPDATE...
CUMULUS ARE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE,
BUT THESE TOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES. 0000 UTC
KAMA RAOB DATA SHOW A WEAKER CAP THAN YESTERDAY, BUT IT`S STILL QUITE
APPARENT. APART FROM SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE,
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR VERY SLIM WITH NO BACKGROUND
FORCING FOR ASCENT PRESENT. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, IT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO CLARENDON LINE.

WE`LL LIKELY HAVE TO DO A FORECAST UPDATE ONCE THE NEWEST MODEL AND
UPPER AIR DATA ROLL IN AS IT APPEARS THAT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT IN THE FORECAST AS GOING PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE OVERALL IDEA OF A WARM DRY WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WETTER WEEKEND STILL REMAINS VALID THOUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT FUZZY DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
PICKING UP WED AND THU OUT OF THE SW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN THU NIGHT AND KEEPING THE FRONT AROUND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS PREFERENCE...HAVE TRIMMED
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LEFT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ





000
FXUS64 KAMA 020243 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
943 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
A POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR MASS WILL ADVECT RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY 60
CORRIDOR. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG IN THESE
SAME AREAS AFTER 4 AM, BUT VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO
1/4 MILE OR LESS. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 AM TUESDAY, BUT THE
LOW CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WE`LL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES TO SEE RAIN:
1) WITH BACKBUILDING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. IF THESE SOMEHOW
BACKBUILD INTO OUR AREA, LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO
CLARENDON LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF BEING IMPACTED.
2) WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO LATE
TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY.

HOWEVER, CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT ARE NOT VERY
HIGH.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KAMA.

AT KDHT AND KGUY, HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP 10Z-17Z AND 07Z-16Z, RESPECTIVELY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
LIFR CONDITIONS COULD EVEN BRIEFLY DEVELOP.

A FEW SHRA/TSRA COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT,
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KGUY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA TO ALSO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KAMA AFTER 20Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

JACKSON

UPDATE...
CUMULUS ARE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE,
BUT THESE TOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES. 0000 UTC
KAMA RAOB DATA SHOW A WEAKER CAP THAN YESTERDAY, BUT IT`S STILL QUITE
APPARENT. APART FROM SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE,
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR VERY SLIM WITH NO BACKGROUND
FORCING FOR ASCENT PRESENT. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, IT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO CLARENDON LINE.

WE`LL LIKELY HAVE TO DO A FORECAST UPDATE ONCE THE NEWEST MODEL AND
UPPER AIR DATA ROLL IN AS IT APPEARS THAT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT IN THE FORECAST AS GOING PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE OVERALL IDEA OF A WARM DRY WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WETTER WEEKEND STILL REMAINS VALID THOUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT FUZZY DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
PICKING UP WED AND THU OUT OF THE SW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN THU NIGHT AND KEEPING THE FRONT AROUND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS PREFERENCE...HAVE TRIMMED
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LEFT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ






000
FXUS64 KMAF 020148
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
848 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast to remove isolated PoPs from the Davis Mountains
and surrounding areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Storms have dissipated across the area with sunset. Tonight should
remain quiet with increasing southerly winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 02/00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail UFN. A deeply mixed PBL (to 620 mb per
KMAF`s 02/00Z sounding) will collapse soon, and with concomitant
ageostrophic acceleration of the mass field, surface winds will
kick up to around 12 kts sustained with gusts near 25 kts across
most terminals this evening. These winds will lie down for a bit
before increasing after sunrise as a decaying LLJ mixes down to
the surface. Chances of high-based convection affecting KFST and
KPEQ Tuesday afternoon are quite low (less than 1 in 10).

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows the broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS has moved north over the
past 24 hrs.  As a result, fairly benign wx will persist over the
next week, w/rain chances slim to none aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.  Models also develop
convection in the Rio Grande Valley over the next couple of days,
and try and bring it into the lwr Trans Pecos, but not by much.

Models are similar to 24 hrs ago in developing the upper ridge into
the Gulf Coast region over the next few days, w/temps on the decline
after this afternoon as thicknesses decrease as the ridge moves
east.  Models still exhibit Significant differences in the strength
of the thermal ridge over the next few days.  The NAM remains the
coldest outlier, and appears to cool things off too quickly, and has
been running a bit cool the past few days.  The CMC and ARW came in
the warmest, w/the GFS, ECMWF, and NMM holding the middle ground.
W/the warmer solutions panning out the past few days, we`ve opted to
lean towards the warmer side of guidance.

Upper ridge is forecast to set up shop over the SE CONUS most of the
week, then build back west beginning Friday.  However, models
persist in bringing back a much weaker version than what`s over us
at the moment.  Temps should drop to just a notch above normal by
midweek, and stay there thru the weekend.  Big difference in the
extended models today is a cold front approaching the area Saturday
night.  The GFS stalls this feature in the Wrn Low Rolling Plains,
whereas the ECMWF brings it further into the CWA.  The 00Z ECMWF was
more confident in bringing it all the way to the Rio Grande, whereas
the latest run is more in line w/the GFS.  Models tend to be rather
obstreperous w/the first few cold fronts this time of year, so it
wouldn`t be surprising if the front didn`t make it into the FA at
all, and stalled or dissipated further north.  Finally, a glance at
NAEFS standardized anomalies for Sunday suggest the GFS is the
better solution.  Thus, we`ve leaned toward the warmer GFS, w/no
front.  If the front does make it as far as the GFS suggests, the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains may need some convection added Saturday
night.  For the time being, we`ll keep the grids dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74 100  72  94  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              75 100  74  94  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69 103  74  97  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  78  99  77  93  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75 102  73  93  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          74  98  68  90  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   68 100  69  94  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  93  59  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    76 100  74  93  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  77  99  74  94  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                    77 106  75  99  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/29

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 020132
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
832 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO UPDATE WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR WITH MODERATE WINDS THROUGH 06Z. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP AT THE I-35 SITES AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...ALTHOUGH BKN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM
12-16Z. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES A LITTLE AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  78  97  77  96 /  -    0  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  76  97  74  96 /  -    0  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  75  97  74  96 /  -    0  10  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  75  96  75  94 /  -    0  10  10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  78 100  77  94 /  -    0  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  77  95  76  95 /  -    0  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  97  74  94 /  -    0  10  10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  77  96  75  95 /  -    0  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   98  78  96  76  96 /  20  10  30  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  79  98  77  96 /  -    0  10  10  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  78  98  76  96 /  -    0  10  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12








000
FXUS64 KEWX 020132
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
832 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGES
WERE TO UPDATE WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR WITH MODERATE WINDS THROUGH 06Z. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP AT THE I-35 SITES AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...ALTHOUGH BKN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM
12-16Z. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES A LITTLE AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              99  78  97  77  96 /  -    0  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  98  76  97  74  96 /  -    0  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     99  75  97  74  96 /  -    0  10  10  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  75  96  75  94 /  -    0  10  10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  78 100  77  94 /  -    0  -   -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        97  77  95  76  95 /  -    0  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  97  74  94 /  -    0  10  10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        98  77  96  75  95 /  -    0  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   98  78  96  76  96 /  20  10  30  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       99  79  98  77  96 /  -    0  10  10  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          100  78  98  76  96 /  -    0  10  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KHGX 020058
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
758 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...
STORMS INLAND HAVE NEARLY ALL DISSIPATED BUT THE GULF IS MORE
ACTIVE AND GOES SOUNDER SHOWS 2.1-2.2" PW MARCHING INTO THE THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE COINCIDENTLY THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
IN COVERAGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BUT
WILL BE FIGHTING THE SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. BY 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SHOULD CREEP INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. HAVE VCSH FOR GLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF SCT TO BKN
CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS AT CXO AND MAY COME CLOSE AT
UTS/CLL BUT DON`T EXPECT THE FOG OR DENSE FOG THAT HAPPENED EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND FOR NOW HAVE VICINITY SHRA/TSRA AND TEMPO
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOU/IAH HUBS BETWEEN 16-21Z WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES LIE FOR THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY.
DRIER AIR SHOULD FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AND LESS COVERAGE.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PW VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 1.90 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS INDUCING A BIT MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS PROBABLY LIMITING AREA COVERAGE. SFC DEW PTS DID NOT
MIX OUT THIS MORNING AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKED NEAR 105 DEGREES
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 2.10
INCHES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. THE WAVE
OVER THE SW GULF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LIFT. TPC WILL UPGRADE
THE WEAK WAVE TO TD #5 LATER THIS AFTN. TD #5 WILL REMAIN A WEAK
SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SE TX OTHER THAN AN
INCREASE IN SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SLOWLY WARM BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FEEL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. DON`T REALLY SEE
ANY FEATURES THAT WOULD EITHER ENHANCE OR DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES SO
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FCST AS IS (LOW END CHANCE POPS). NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE STATE BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. 43

CLIMATE...
THE CLIMOTOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

MARINE...
A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PULLING IN
A HIGHER CENTRAL GULF SWELL INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ADDED ONTO ALREADY 3 TO 4 FOOT
WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET OCCURRING OVER
THE FAR (PRIMARILY WESTERN) OFFSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THIS DISTURBANCE`S NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
BE AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CRITERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 020058
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
758 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...
STORMS INLAND HAVE NEARLY ALL DISSIPATED BUT THE GULF IS MORE
ACTIVE AND GOES SOUNDER SHOWS 2.1-2.2" PW MARCHING INTO THE THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE COINCIDENTLY THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING
IN COVERAGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BUT
WILL BE FIGHTING THE SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE COAST AT LEAST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. BY 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
SHOULD CREEP INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. HAVE VCSH FOR GLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF SCT TO BKN
CIGS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS AT CXO AND MAY COME CLOSE AT
UTS/CLL BUT DON`T EXPECT THE FOG OR DENSE FOG THAT HAPPENED EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY AND FOR NOW HAVE VICINITY SHRA/TSRA AND TEMPO
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOU/IAH HUBS BETWEEN 16-21Z WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES LIE FOR THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY.
DRIER AIR SHOULD FLOW BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AND LESS COVERAGE.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PW VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 1.90 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS INDUCING A BIT MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS PROBABLY LIMITING AREA COVERAGE. SFC DEW PTS DID NOT
MIX OUT THIS MORNING AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKED NEAR 105 DEGREES
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 2.10
INCHES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. THE WAVE
OVER THE SW GULF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LIFT. TPC WILL UPGRADE
THE WEAK WAVE TO TD #5 LATER THIS AFTN. TD #5 WILL REMAIN A WEAK
SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SE TX OTHER THAN AN
INCREASE IN SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SLOWLY WARM BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FEEL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. DON`T REALLY SEE
ANY FEATURES THAT WOULD EITHER ENHANCE OR DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES SO
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FCST AS IS (LOW END CHANCE POPS). NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE STATE BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. 43

CLIMATE...
THE CLIMOTOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

MARINE...
A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PULLING IN
A HIGHER CENTRAL GULF SWELL INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ADDED ONTO ALREADY 3 TO 4 FOOT
WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET OCCURRING OVER
THE FAR (PRIMARILY WESTERN) OFFSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THIS DISTURBANCE`S NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
BE AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CRITERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45



000
FXUS64 KCRP 020054
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
754 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPGRADED FROM MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BASED ON EXPECTED SWELL HEIGHTS/PERIOD
AND WIND.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING MSTR WL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
NEAR THE COAST. MVFR/VFR CEILINGS TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND THEN
TRANSITIONING WESTWARD DRG THE AFTN HOURS. GENERALLY LGT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...LESS CONVECTION
NOTICED ON RADAR AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DESPITE THE NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AVAILABLE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE WEAK
THETA-E RIDGE BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MOISTURE
INCREASES HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER HOWEVER BRING AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE TO SOUTH TEXAS. WITH THIS SAID...POPS WILL BE ON THE RISE
BEGINNING TUESDAY. AS A WEAK SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY. DID EXTEND HIGH END CHANCE POPS FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST. ACTIVITY SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OVER THE WATERS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND SOUTHERN CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. MADE MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES KEEPING RELATIVELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TO NEAR 100 OUT WEST DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS
PROG TO BE PUSHING INLAND OVER NE MX AT START OF LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER CWA /ASSUMING TD5 DOES
NOT INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO PREVENT DEEP MOISTURE FROM OVERSPREADING THE
REGION/. WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POPS OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS AXIS OF DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF LOW CONVECTIVE TEMP VALUES.
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. REMNANTS OF TD5 SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL ON THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE LIKELY
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA /GREATEST VALUES ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES/...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEARLY AREAWIDE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. ECMWF/CMC ARE MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF AN ECMWF/CMC AND SLIGHT GFS
BLEND FOR POPS. MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS PROG TO EXIT THE REGION BY
FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAILY CONVECTION EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT IS PROG BY THE
ECMWF/GFS TO STALL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE THE CMC WANTS TO BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/GFS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ ON
WED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DETERMINED BY
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS /WHICH ARE NOW STARTING TO
SLOWLY COOL/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  78  88  77  /  20  50  30  70  40
VICTORIA          77  94  77  92  76  /  20  50  20  50  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  93  78  /  10  20  10  60  30
ALICE             76  95  77  88  75  /  10  50  20  70  30
ROCKPORT          81  91  81  88  79  /  30  40  30  60  30
COTULLA           77  98  77  93  76  /  10  20  10  40  30
KINGSVILLE        78  93  78  88  76  /  20  50  30  70  40
NAVY CORPUS       81  90  81  88  79  /  20  40  30  70  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION
IB/90...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KAMA 012347 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
647 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
KAMA.

AT KDHT AND KGUY, HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP 10Z-17Z AND 07Z-16Z, RESPECTIVELY. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
LIFR CONDITIONS COULD EVEN BRIEFLY DEVELOP.

A FEW SHRA/TSRA COULD CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT,
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KGUY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSRA TO ALSO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KAMA AFTER 20Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

JACKSON

&&

.UPDATE...
CUMULUS ARE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE,
BUT THESE TOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES. 0000 UTC
KAMA RAOB DATA SHOW A WEAKER CAP THAN YESTERDAY, BUT IT`S STILL QUITE
APPARENT. APART FROM SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE,
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEAR VERY SLIM WITH NO BACKGROUND
FORCING FOR ASCENT PRESENT. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, IT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WHEELER TO CLARENDON LINE.

WE`LL LIKELY HAVE TO DO A FORECAST UPDATE ONCE THE NEWEST MODEL AND
UPPER AIR DATA ROLL IN AS IT APPEARS THAT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT IN THE FORECAST AS GOING PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE OVERALL IDEA OF A WARM DRY WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WETTER WEEKEND STILL REMAINS VALID THOUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT FUZZY DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
PICKING UP WED AND THU OUT OF THE SW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN THU NIGHT AND KEEPING THE FRONT AROUND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS PREFERENCE...HAVE TRIMMED
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LEFT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

JC/JJ





000
FXUS64 KMAF 012338
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
638 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 02/00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail UFN. A deeply mixed PBL (to 620 mb per
KMAF`s 02/00Z sounding) will collapse soon, and with concomitant
ageostrophic acceleration of the mass field, surface winds will
kick up to around 12 kts sustained with gusts near 25 kts across
most terminals this evening. These winds will lie down for a bit
before increasing after sunrise as a decaying LLJ mixes down to
the surface. Chances of high-based convection affecting KFST and
KPEQ Tuesday afternoon are quite low (less than 1 in 10).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows the broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS has moved north over the
past 24 hrs.  As a result, fairly benign wx will persist over the
next week, w/rain chances slim to none aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.  Models also develop
convection in the Rio Grande Valley over the next couple of days,
and try and bring it into the lwr Trans Pecos, but not by much.

Models are similar to 24 hrs ago in developing the upper ridge into
the Gulf Coast region over the next few days, w/temps on the decline
after this afternoon as thicknesses decrease as the ridge moves
east.  Models still exhibit Significant differences in the strength
of the thermal ridge over the next few days.  The NAM remains the
coldest outlier, and appears to cool things off too quickly, and has
been running a bit cool the past few days.  The CMC and ARW came in
the warmest, w/the GFS, ECMWF, and NMM holding the middle ground.
W/the warmer solutions panning out the past few days, we`ve opted to
lean towards the warmer side of guidance.

Upper ridge is forecast to set up shop over the SE CONUS most of the
week, then build back west beginning Friday.  However, models
persist in bringing back a much weaker version than what`s over us
at the moment.  Temps should drop to just a notch above normal by
midweek, and stay there thru the weekend.  Big difference in the
extended models today is a cold front approaching the area Saturday
night.  The GFS stalls this feature in the Wrn Low Rolling Plains,
whereas the ECMWF brings it further into the CWA.  The 00Z ECMWF was
more confident in bringing it all the way to the Rio Grande, whereas
the latest run is more in line w/the GFS.  Models tend to be rather
obstreperous w/the first few cold fronts this time of year, so it
wouldn`t be surprising if the front didn`t make it into the FA at
all, and stalled or dissipated further north.  Finally, a glance at
NAEFS standardized anomalies for Sunday suggest the GFS is the
better solution.  Thus, we`ve leaned toward the warmer GFS, w/no
front.  If the front does make it as far as the GFS suggests, the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains may need some convection added Saturday
night.  For the time being, we`ll keep the grids dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 012338
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
638 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 02/00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail UFN. A deeply mixed PBL (to 620 mb per
KMAF`s 02/00Z sounding) will collapse soon, and with concomitant
ageostrophic acceleration of the mass field, surface winds will
kick up to around 12 kts sustained with gusts near 25 kts across
most terminals this evening. These winds will lie down for a bit
before increasing after sunrise as a decaying LLJ mixes down to
the surface. Chances of high-based convection affecting KFST and
KPEQ Tuesday afternoon are quite low (less than 1 in 10).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows the broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS has moved north over the
past 24 hrs.  As a result, fairly benign wx will persist over the
next week, w/rain chances slim to none aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.  Models also develop
convection in the Rio Grande Valley over the next couple of days,
and try and bring it into the lwr Trans Pecos, but not by much.

Models are similar to 24 hrs ago in developing the upper ridge into
the Gulf Coast region over the next few days, w/temps on the decline
after this afternoon as thicknesses decrease as the ridge moves
east.  Models still exhibit Significant differences in the strength
of the thermal ridge over the next few days.  The NAM remains the
coldest outlier, and appears to cool things off too quickly, and has
been running a bit cool the past few days.  The CMC and ARW came in
the warmest, w/the GFS, ECMWF, and NMM holding the middle ground.
W/the warmer solutions panning out the past few days, we`ve opted to
lean towards the warmer side of guidance.

Upper ridge is forecast to set up shop over the SE CONUS most of the
week, then build back west beginning Friday.  However, models
persist in bringing back a much weaker version than what`s over us
at the moment.  Temps should drop to just a notch above normal by
midweek, and stay there thru the weekend.  Big difference in the
extended models today is a cold front approaching the area Saturday
night.  The GFS stalls this feature in the Wrn Low Rolling Plains,
whereas the ECMWF brings it further into the CWA.  The 00Z ECMWF was
more confident in bringing it all the way to the Rio Grande, whereas
the latest run is more in line w/the GFS.  Models tend to be rather
obstreperous w/the first few cold fronts this time of year, so it
wouldn`t be surprising if the front didn`t make it into the FA at
all, and stalled or dissipated further north.  Finally, a glance at
NAEFS standardized anomalies for Sunday suggest the GFS is the
better solution.  Thus, we`ve leaned toward the warmer GFS, w/no
front.  If the front does make it as far as the GFS suggests, the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains may need some convection added Saturday
night.  For the time being, we`ll keep the grids dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 012337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR WITH MODERATE WINDS THROUGH 06Z. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP AT THE I-35 SITES AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...ALTHOUGH BKN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM
12-16Z. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES A LITTLE AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  97  77  96  75 /   0  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  97  74  96  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  77  94  74 /   0  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  95  76  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  94  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  96  75  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  96  76  96  76 /  10  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  77  96  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  98  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 012337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR WITH MODERATE WINDS THROUGH 06Z. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP AT THE I-35 SITES AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...ALTHOUGH BKN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM
12-16Z. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES A LITTLE AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  97  77  96  75 /   0  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  97  74  96  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  77  94  74 /   0  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  95  76  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  94  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  96  75  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  96  76  96  76 /  10  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  77  96  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  98  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 012337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR WITH MODERATE WINDS THROUGH 06Z. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP AT THE I-35 SITES AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...ALTHOUGH BKN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM
12-16Z. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES A LITTLE AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  97  77  96  75 /   0  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  97  74  96  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  77  94  74 /   0  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  95  76  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  94  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  96  75  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  96  76  96  76 /  10  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  77  96  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  98  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 012337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR WITH MODERATE WINDS THROUGH 06Z. MVFR STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP AT THE I-35 SITES AROUND 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...ALTHOUGH BKN COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 21Z. KDRT WILL ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM
12-16Z. EXPECT A REPEAT OF MVFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES A LITTLE AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  97  77  96  75 /   0  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  97  74  96  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  77  94  74 /   0  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  95  76  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  94  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  96  75  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  96  76  96  76 /  10  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  77  96  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  98  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KLUB 012336
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. PERHAPS LESS THAN
10 PCT CHANCE WE COULD SEE A TSTM AFFECT THE CDS TERMINAL THIS
EVENING AND OR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
BIT BREEZY LAT THIS EVENING THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HOT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH A SURFACE HEAT LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. LUBBOCK ALREADY HAS SURPASSED ITS PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORD WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. DRY-LINE
STILL FAIRLY DIFFUSE STRETCHING FROM TAHOKA THROUGH MATADOR INTO
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT VICINITY OF PALO DURO CANYON. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT SLIPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAS HUNG
UP THIS VICINITY THOUGH DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH THE WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HEAT LOW. BUT AREAS NORTH OF TULIA TO MULESHOE LINE ARE
YET A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH AND PROBABLY CLOSE TO THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WAS ALOFT AND WE HAVE
NOT YET SEEN A CUMULUS FIELD FILLING IN THROUGH THE DRY-LINE OR
SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST NOW
REACHING 100 DEGREES SO SHOULD SEE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
STILL SUPPORT SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE DRY-LINE FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS ALREADY INDICATED.
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN EAST OF THE DRY-LINE GIVING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY HIGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...WHILE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE NEAR 30 KNOTS
JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. SO WE STILL CONSIDER THERE TO BE
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS WELL SHOULD STORMS GET GOING. WE HAVE
RETAINED PREVIOUS COVERAGE AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET THEN GET A WEAKER SHOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
LESS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT DIP
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL
THUNDER CHANCE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE MAIN
LIMITERS. BUT HEATING ONCE MORE MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING SO HAVE RETAINED THAT PREVIOUS LOW MENTION.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT SHOWS HINTS OF BEGINNING TO ERODE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY...WE REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

BY LATE THURSDAY A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE EAST OUT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WHEN
AIDED BY MOISTURE FETCH FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN RIDGING
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. 31/00Z ECMWF INDICATED PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST...GFS
RUNS SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT...REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY LIFTING THE
TROUGH NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BUT 01/12Z
GFS DEEPENED THE TROUGH AND SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF...AN ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE 01/12Z ECMWF
DEEPENED THE PACIFIC TROUGH EVEN MORE...RESULTING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE 6DAY/7DAY TIME FRAME HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS FROM SLIGHT &
ISOLATED WHILE FULLY RECOGNIZING THE TREND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND...A QUICK PEEK BEYOND EVEN THE WEEKEND HAS BOTH MODELS
HINTING TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH ABSORBING THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE BAJA WHICH WOULD HAVE WET IMPLICATIONS FOR US AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  63  93  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     69  95  67  93  66 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     68  95  66  92  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  96  70  92  68 /  10  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  92  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  97  66  93  67 /  10  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     75  98  72  96  71 /  20  10  10  10   0
SPUR          73  97  72  95  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  72 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26






000
FXUS64 KLUB 012336
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. PERHAPS LESS THAN
10 PCT CHANCE WE COULD SEE A TSTM AFFECT THE CDS TERMINAL THIS
EVENING AND OR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
BIT BREEZY LAT THIS EVENING THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HOT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH A SURFACE HEAT LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. LUBBOCK ALREADY HAS SURPASSED ITS PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORD WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. DRY-LINE
STILL FAIRLY DIFFUSE STRETCHING FROM TAHOKA THROUGH MATADOR INTO
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT VICINITY OF PALO DURO CANYON. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT SLIPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAS HUNG
UP THIS VICINITY THOUGH DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH THE WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HEAT LOW. BUT AREAS NORTH OF TULIA TO MULESHOE LINE ARE
YET A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH AND PROBABLY CLOSE TO THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WAS ALOFT AND WE HAVE
NOT YET SEEN A CUMULUS FIELD FILLING IN THROUGH THE DRY-LINE OR
SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST NOW
REACHING 100 DEGREES SO SHOULD SEE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
STILL SUPPORT SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE DRY-LINE FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS ALREADY INDICATED.
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN EAST OF THE DRY-LINE GIVING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY HIGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...WHILE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE NEAR 30 KNOTS
JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. SO WE STILL CONSIDER THERE TO BE
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS WELL SHOULD STORMS GET GOING. WE HAVE
RETAINED PREVIOUS COVERAGE AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET THEN GET A WEAKER SHOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
LESS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT DIP
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL
THUNDER CHANCE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE MAIN
LIMITERS. BUT HEATING ONCE MORE MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING SO HAVE RETAINED THAT PREVIOUS LOW MENTION.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT SHOWS HINTS OF BEGINNING TO ERODE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY...WE REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

BY LATE THURSDAY A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE EAST OUT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WHEN
AIDED BY MOISTURE FETCH FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN RIDGING
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. 31/00Z ECMWF INDICATED PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST...GFS
RUNS SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT...REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY LIFTING THE
TROUGH NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BUT 01/12Z
GFS DEEPENED THE TROUGH AND SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF...AN ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE 01/12Z ECMWF
DEEPENED THE PACIFIC TROUGH EVEN MORE...RESULTING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE 6DAY/7DAY TIME FRAME HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS FROM SLIGHT &
ISOLATED WHILE FULLY RECOGNIZING THE TREND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND...A QUICK PEEK BEYOND EVEN THE WEEKEND HAS BOTH MODELS
HINTING TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH ABSORBING THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE BAJA WHICH WOULD HAVE WET IMPLICATIONS FOR US AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  63  93  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     69  95  67  93  66 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     68  95  66  92  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  96  70  92  68 /  10  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  92  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  97  66  93  67 /  10  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     75  98  72  96  71 /  20  10  10  10   0
SPUR          73  97  72  95  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  72 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KBRO 012334 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE EVENING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVE INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TUES MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NEXT 36 HOURS BEGINS
TRANSITION FROM INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK OVER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE LURKING IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PW VALUES THIS
MORNING WERE ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY AND SLOWLY BUILD IT AS THE GULF FEATURE DRIFTS WNW.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUAL FEED OF
STREAMER SHOWERS UPSTREAM FRO THE VALLEY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...BUT
HI PW SIGNAL WILL MEAN ANY SHOWER WILL PROVIDE AMPLE RAINFALL IN A
SMALL AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE. TOMORROW THE DISTURBANCE IS IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE H5
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...THE GULF FEATURE
WILL LIKELY DEFLECT WWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MEXICO COAST. INSTABILITY
AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FEATURE AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
ENTIRE PARCEL WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
BACK BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER...KEEPING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.

PW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HEATING INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING IN FRO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING HEAVIER RAINFALL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH FAVOR DEVELOPMENT BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WX RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE
THAT FEEDS NORTH ON THE LARGER SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW DOMINATING THE
GULF.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE EARLY
LONG TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD
BETTER THAN EVEN ODDS...OR 50 PERCENT...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY
CASE...A FEW DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A
FEW INCHES DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A
HEAVILY LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH POPS WED THROUGH
THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND WILL THUS TREND
DOWN CONV CHCS INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE TROPICAL FEED SHIFTS
WEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...OPTED TO GO WITH A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH
DAY 7. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT WED AND THURS AS
CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT
LATER AS CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A LITTLE MORE DIURNAL HEATING IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND...AND CONDITIONS WILL RECOVER WITH LOWER...MORE TYPICAL
MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT LIKELY A
BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW NORMAL. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR EVEN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK...INCLUDING
EASTERN SECTIONS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AGITATION FORECAST FOR THE
MARINE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH
SOME WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
START TO INCREASE LATER TOMORROW...WITH SEAS REACHING 6 TO 7 FEET
FOR THE GULF WATERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20NM TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
TROPICAL FEATURE MOVES INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY DUE TO SWELL FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. SOUTH
EAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THE ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND THE ASSOC SWELL GENERATING WINDS DECREASE.
THURSDAY WILL THEREFORE BE MORE OF A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
DAY. FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE WINDS AND
WAVES...WITH LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PART
AND PARCEL OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  91  79  88 /  20  50  40  70
BROWNSVILLE          79  93  78  88 /  20  50  50  60
HARLINGEN            78  94  77  89 /  20  50  40  60
MCALLEN              79  96  78  90 /  10  50  30  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      80  98  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  88  80  87 /  20  50  40  70
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/68/MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 012334 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE EVENING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVE INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TUES MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NEXT 36 HOURS BEGINS
TRANSITION FROM INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK OVER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE LURKING IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PW VALUES THIS
MORNING WERE ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY AND SLOWLY BUILD IT AS THE GULF FEATURE DRIFTS WNW.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUAL FEED OF
STREAMER SHOWERS UPSTREAM FRO THE VALLEY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...BUT
HI PW SIGNAL WILL MEAN ANY SHOWER WILL PROVIDE AMPLE RAINFALL IN A
SMALL AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE. TOMORROW THE DISTURBANCE IS IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE H5
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...THE GULF FEATURE
WILL LIKELY DEFLECT WWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MEXICO COAST. INSTABILITY
AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FEATURE AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
ENTIRE PARCEL WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
BACK BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER...KEEPING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.

PW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HEATING INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING IN FRO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING HEAVIER RAINFALL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH FAVOR DEVELOPMENT BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WX RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE
THAT FEEDS NORTH ON THE LARGER SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW DOMINATING THE
GULF.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE EARLY
LONG TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD
BETTER THAN EVEN ODDS...OR 50 PERCENT...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY
CASE...A FEW DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A
FEW INCHES DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A
HEAVILY LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH POPS WED THROUGH
THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND WILL THUS TREND
DOWN CONV CHCS INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE TROPICAL FEED SHIFTS
WEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...OPTED TO GO WITH A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH
DAY 7. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT WED AND THURS AS
CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT
LATER AS CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A LITTLE MORE DIURNAL HEATING IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND...AND CONDITIONS WILL RECOVER WITH LOWER...MORE TYPICAL
MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT LIKELY A
BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW NORMAL. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR EVEN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK...INCLUDING
EASTERN SECTIONS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AGITATION FORECAST FOR THE
MARINE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH
SOME WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
START TO INCREASE LATER TOMORROW...WITH SEAS REACHING 6 TO 7 FEET
FOR THE GULF WATERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20NM TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
TROPICAL FEATURE MOVES INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY DUE TO SWELL FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. SOUTH
EAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THE ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND THE ASSOC SWELL GENERATING WINDS DECREASE.
THURSDAY WILL THEREFORE BE MORE OF A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
DAY. FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE WINDS AND
WAVES...WITH LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PART
AND PARCEL OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  91  79  88 /  20  50  40  70
BROWNSVILLE          79  93  78  88 /  20  50  50  60
HARLINGEN            78  94  77  89 /  20  50  40  60
MCALLEN              79  96  78  90 /  10  50  30  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      80  98  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  88  80  87 /  20  50  40  70
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/68/MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 012334 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE EVENING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVE INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TUES MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NEXT 36 HOURS BEGINS
TRANSITION FROM INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK OVER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE LURKING IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PW VALUES THIS
MORNING WERE ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY AND SLOWLY BUILD IT AS THE GULF FEATURE DRIFTS WNW.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUAL FEED OF
STREAMER SHOWERS UPSTREAM FRO THE VALLEY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...BUT
HI PW SIGNAL WILL MEAN ANY SHOWER WILL PROVIDE AMPLE RAINFALL IN A
SMALL AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE. TOMORROW THE DISTURBANCE IS IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE H5
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...THE GULF FEATURE
WILL LIKELY DEFLECT WWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MEXICO COAST. INSTABILITY
AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FEATURE AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
ENTIRE PARCEL WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
BACK BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER...KEEPING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.

PW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HEATING INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING IN FRO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING HEAVIER RAINFALL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH FAVOR DEVELOPMENT BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WX RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE
THAT FEEDS NORTH ON THE LARGER SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW DOMINATING THE
GULF.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE EARLY
LONG TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD
BETTER THAN EVEN ODDS...OR 50 PERCENT...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY
CASE...A FEW DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A
FEW INCHES DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A
HEAVILY LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH POPS WED THROUGH
THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND WILL THUS TREND
DOWN CONV CHCS INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE TROPICAL FEED SHIFTS
WEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...OPTED TO GO WITH A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH
DAY 7. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT WED AND THURS AS
CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT
LATER AS CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A LITTLE MORE DIURNAL HEATING IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND...AND CONDITIONS WILL RECOVER WITH LOWER...MORE TYPICAL
MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT LIKELY A
BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW NORMAL. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR EVEN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK...INCLUDING
EASTERN SECTIONS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AGITATION FORECAST FOR THE
MARINE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH
SOME WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
START TO INCREASE LATER TOMORROW...WITH SEAS REACHING 6 TO 7 FEET
FOR THE GULF WATERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20NM TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
TROPICAL FEATURE MOVES INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY DUE TO SWELL FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. SOUTH
EAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THE ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND THE ASSOC SWELL GENERATING WINDS DECREASE.
THURSDAY WILL THEREFORE BE MORE OF A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
DAY. FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE WINDS AND
WAVES...WITH LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PART
AND PARCEL OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  91  79  88 /  20  50  40  70
BROWNSVILLE          79  93  78  88 /  20  50  50  60
HARLINGEN            78  94  77  89 /  20  50  40  60
MCALLEN              79  96  78  90 /  10  50  30  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      80  98  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  88  80  87 /  20  50  40  70
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/68/MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 012334 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE EVENING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVE INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TUES MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NEXT 36 HOURS BEGINS
TRANSITION FROM INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK OVER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE LURKING IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PW VALUES THIS
MORNING WERE ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY AND SLOWLY BUILD IT AS THE GULF FEATURE DRIFTS WNW.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUAL FEED OF
STREAMER SHOWERS UPSTREAM FRO THE VALLEY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...BUT
HI PW SIGNAL WILL MEAN ANY SHOWER WILL PROVIDE AMPLE RAINFALL IN A
SMALL AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE. TOMORROW THE DISTURBANCE IS IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE H5
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...THE GULF FEATURE
WILL LIKELY DEFLECT WWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MEXICO COAST. INSTABILITY
AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FEATURE AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
ENTIRE PARCEL WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
BACK BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER...KEEPING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.

PW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HEATING INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING IN FRO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING HEAVIER RAINFALL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH FAVOR DEVELOPMENT BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WX RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE
THAT FEEDS NORTH ON THE LARGER SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW DOMINATING THE
GULF.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE EARLY
LONG TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD
BETTER THAN EVEN ODDS...OR 50 PERCENT...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY
CASE...A FEW DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A
FEW INCHES DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A
HEAVILY LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH POPS WED THROUGH
THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND WILL THUS TREND
DOWN CONV CHCS INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE TROPICAL FEED SHIFTS
WEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...OPTED TO GO WITH A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH
DAY 7. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT WED AND THURS AS
CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT
LATER AS CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A LITTLE MORE DIURNAL HEATING IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND...AND CONDITIONS WILL RECOVER WITH LOWER...MORE TYPICAL
MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT LIKELY A
BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW NORMAL. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR EVEN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK...INCLUDING
EASTERN SECTIONS.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AGITATION FORECAST FOR THE
MARINE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH
SOME WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
START TO INCREASE LATER TOMORROW...WITH SEAS REACHING 6 TO 7 FEET
FOR THE GULF WATERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20NM TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
TROPICAL FEATURE MOVES INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY DUE TO SWELL FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. SOUTH
EAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THE ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND THE ASSOC SWELL GENERATING WINDS DECREASE.
THURSDAY WILL THEREFORE BE MORE OF A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
DAY. FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE WINDS AND
WAVES...WITH LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PART
AND PARCEL OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  91  79  88 /  20  50  40  70
BROWNSVILLE          79  93  78  88 /  20  50  50  60
HARLINGEN            78  94  77  89 /  20  50  40  60
MCALLEN              79  96  78  90 /  10  50  30  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      80  98  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  88  80  87 /  20  50  40  70
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/68/MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KFWD 012326
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS PRIOR TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF STRATUS EARLY TUESDAY.
THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX WILL LIKELY BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
CLOUD DECK...AND WE WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE WITH MVFR STRATUS OVER
ALL BUT THE AFW AND FTW AIRPORTS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME TUESDAY AND WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE TUESDAY/S CONDITIONS TO BECOME QUITE AS GUSTY AS THIS
AFTERNOON.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STALL BEFORE MAKING MUCH MORE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING...AND STEERING FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS FEATURES
STRONG CIN WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THERE
MAY BE A TINY BIT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES BY MORNING FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS...BUT
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF ANY OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION TO REMAIN
IN OKLAHOMA. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 10 PERCENT IN THIS AREA BUT WILL
KEEP THE WORDED FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE...A QUIET AND SEASONABLY
MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE/STRATUS NORTHWARD...WHICH WILL IMPACT ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THIS MORNING/S STRATUS INTRUSION.

MEANWHILE A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE APPEARS TO
BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE THE TROPICAL LOW CENTER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ON A WEST/NORTHWEST TRACK INTO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO...THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS
COASTLINE TOMORROW WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTAIN
AMPLE UNCAPPED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER DUE TO LIMITED LIFT...WILL
KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE...WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.
SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION JUST HOT AND DRY. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO KEEP
THE REMNANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE/CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITH MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FORCED INTO AND RUNG OUT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO COOL A DEGREE OR TWO BY FRIDAY...BUT STILL
THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. SINCE THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOLER AIR...AND THEREFORE ONLY A
VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL PUT TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED FOR ANY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

TR.92


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  97  78  97  77 /   0   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              78  98  76  97  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             74  93  74  94  73 /   5  10  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            78  96  75  96  75 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          77  95  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  97  78  97  78 /   0  10  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  76  96  74 /   5  20  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  75  96  74 /   5  20  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  98  74  98  72 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 012300
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. More uncertainty remains at
KSJT, so for now, VFR conditions were continued. VFR conditions will
return to all sites between 14z and 15z. South winds of 6 to 12
knots, with higher gusts, can be expected through Tuesday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

No significant changes made to the short term. We will continue to
see hot and muggy conditions. Heat index values across the area were
around 100 degrees between 2 and 3 this afternoon with a hot spot of
106 at Weinert. Very little change in the overall pattern will take
place between today and tomorrow. A sprawling upper level ridge will
remain in place across the southern half of the CONUS, with a strong
thermal ridge in the low levels across west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. So, will go with a persistence forecast for the most part.
Expect highs again from the mid 90s along the I-10 corridor to the
102 degree range north of I-20 where the thermal ridge will be
strongest for our area. Overnight, lows should fall into the lower
to upper 70s. Many locations this morning only got down to around 75
or 76 degrees, and with very warm afternoon highs again today, warm
overnight lows should also persist. With the upper level ridge in
control, the dry forecast will continue.

20

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The upper high will become centered over Arkansas on Wednesday, and
over northern Mississippi on Thursday. As this occurs, a deeper
southeasterly flow will develop over much of Texas. The 12Z models
bring a weak disturbance or two up the Rio Grande Valley during that
time. This would be to the north of the tropical system currently
referenced by the National Hurricane Center. With the associated
moisture increase, precipitable water values are progged to
increase into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range across our southern
counties Wednesday into Thursday. This scenario may enable a
possibility for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
occur in the southern part of our area. Would like to see another
consistent model run, however, before adding mentionable PoPs.

Some weakening of the 850mb thermal ridge is indicated for the
middle to late part of the week. With a bit of increased daytime
cloud cover, expect highs to ease back a few degrees across our
area.

The forecast is somewhat problematic for next weekend. The 12Z GFS
and ECMWF shift the center of the upper high back to the west over
Texas. With an upper trough moving across parts of southern Canada,
both models bring the trailing portion of associated cold front
south into Texas next Saturday. Indications are for the front to
probably stall somewhere over our area, and both models have QPF
with the front. Surface high north of the front is progged to be
fairly strong for this time of year (over 1020mb), and could have
the effective front being driven south by convection. Have quite
a bit of uncertainty at this point on the details, however. Appears
that our northern counties would have the better chance of being
affected by the front and associated convection. Carrying slight
chance PoPs for that area Saturday night into Sunday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  96  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  76  99  74  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  10
Junction  74  95  73  92  73 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 012300
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD between 10z
and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. More uncertainty remains at
KSJT, so for now, VFR conditions were continued. VFR conditions will
return to all sites between 14z and 15z. South winds of 6 to 12
knots, with higher gusts, can be expected through Tuesday evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

No significant changes made to the short term. We will continue to
see hot and muggy conditions. Heat index values across the area were
around 100 degrees between 2 and 3 this afternoon with a hot spot of
106 at Weinert. Very little change in the overall pattern will take
place between today and tomorrow. A sprawling upper level ridge will
remain in place across the southern half of the CONUS, with a strong
thermal ridge in the low levels across west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. So, will go with a persistence forecast for the most part.
Expect highs again from the mid 90s along the I-10 corridor to the
102 degree range north of I-20 where the thermal ridge will be
strongest for our area. Overnight, lows should fall into the lower
to upper 70s. Many locations this morning only got down to around 75
or 76 degrees, and with very warm afternoon highs again today, warm
overnight lows should also persist. With the upper level ridge in
control, the dry forecast will continue.

20

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The upper high will become centered over Arkansas on Wednesday, and
over northern Mississippi on Thursday. As this occurs, a deeper
southeasterly flow will develop over much of Texas. The 12Z models
bring a weak disturbance or two up the Rio Grande Valley during that
time. This would be to the north of the tropical system currently
referenced by the National Hurricane Center. With the associated
moisture increase, precipitable water values are progged to
increase into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range across our southern
counties Wednesday into Thursday. This scenario may enable a
possibility for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
occur in the southern part of our area. Would like to see another
consistent model run, however, before adding mentionable PoPs.

Some weakening of the 850mb thermal ridge is indicated for the
middle to late part of the week. With a bit of increased daytime
cloud cover, expect highs to ease back a few degrees across our
area.

The forecast is somewhat problematic for next weekend. The 12Z GFS
and ECMWF shift the center of the upper high back to the west over
Texas. With an upper trough moving across parts of southern Canada,
both models bring the trailing portion of associated cold front
south into Texas next Saturday. Indications are for the front to
probably stall somewhere over our area, and both models have QPF
with the front. Surface high north of the front is progged to be
fairly strong for this time of year (over 1020mb), and could have
the effective front being driven south by convection. Have quite
a bit of uncertainty at this point on the details, however. Appears
that our northern counties would have the better chance of being
affected by the front and associated convection. Carrying slight
chance PoPs for that area Saturday night into Sunday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  96  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  76  99  74  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  10
Junction  74  95  73  92  73 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KAMA 012116
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
416 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT IN THE FORECAST AS GOING PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE OVERALL IDEA OF A WARM DRY WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WETTER WEEKEND STILL REMAINS VALID THOUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT FUZZY DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
PICKING UP WED AND THU OUT OF THE SW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN THU NIGHT AND KEEPING THE FRONT AROUND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS PREFERENCE...HAVE TRIMMED
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LEFT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  92  69  93  67 /  10   5  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  66  92  72  99  72 /  20  20  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              62  87  66  96  66 /  10   5   5  10   5
BORGER TX                  69  94  72  97  71 /  10   5  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              65  92  69  96  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  66  93  68  93  67 /  10   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               70  95  70  94  69 /  20   5  10   5   5
DALHART TX                 63  89  65  96  65 /  10   5   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  64  90  69  98  70 /  10   5  10  10   5
HEREFORD TX                64  92  66  93  65 /  10   5   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                67  93  72  95  72 /  20  20  10  10   5
PAMPA TX                   67  92  69  94  69 /  20  10  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                71  95  71  94  71 /  20  10  10   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              74  97  73  96  73 /  20  10  10   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

20/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 012116
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
416 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DID NOT CHANGE A LOT IN THE FORECAST AS GOING PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE OVERALL IDEA OF A WARM DRY WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLER
WETTER WEEKEND STILL REMAINS VALID THOUGH SOME OF THE DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT FUZZY DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE
PICKING UP WED AND THU OUT OF THE SW.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND THE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THIS FRONT...BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE FRONT IN THU NIGHT AND KEEPING THE FRONT AROUND THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS PREFERENCE...HAVE TRIMMED
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND LEFT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  92  69  93  67 /  10   5  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  66  92  72  99  72 /  20  20  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              62  87  66  96  66 /  10   5   5  10   5
BORGER TX                  69  94  72  97  71 /  10   5  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              65  92  69  96  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  66  93  68  93  67 /  10   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               70  95  70  94  69 /  20   5  10   5   5
DALHART TX                 63  89  65  96  65 /  10   5   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  64  90  69  98  70 /  10   5  10  10   5
HEREFORD TX                64  92  66  93  65 /  10   5   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                67  93  72  95  72 /  20  20  10  10   5
PAMPA TX                   67  92  69  94  69 /  20  10  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                71  95  71  94  71 /  20  10  10   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              74  97  73  96  73 /  20  10  10   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

20/09






000
FXUS64 KSJT 012101
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
400 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

No significant changes made to the short term. We will continue to
see hot and muggy conditions. Heat index values across the area were
around 100 degrees between 2 and 3 this afternoon with a hot spot of
106 at Weinert. Very little change in the overall pattern will take
place between today and tomorrow. A sprawling upper level ridge will
remain in place across the southern half of the CONUS, with a strong
thermal ridge in the low levels across west Texas and eastern New
Mexico. So, will go with a persistence forecast for the most part.
Expect highs again from the mid 90s along the I-10 corridor to the
102 degree range north of I-20 where the thermal ridge will be
strongest for our area. Overnight, lows should fall into the lower
to upper 70s. Many locations this morning only got down to around 75
or 76 degrees, and with very warm afternoon highs again today, warm
overnight lows should also persist. With the upper level ridge in
control, the dry forecast will continue.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The upper high will become centered over Arkansas on Wednesday, and
over northern Mississippi on Thursday. As this occurs, a deeper
southeasterly flow will develop over much of Texas. The 12Z models
bring a weak disturbance or two up the Rio Grande Valley during that
time. This would be to the north of the tropical system currently
referenced by the National Hurricane Center. With the associated
moisture increase, precipitable water values are progged to
increase into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range across our southern
counties Wednesday into Thursday. This scenario may enable a
possibility for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
occur in the southern part of our area. Would like to see another
consistent model run, however, before adding mentionable PoPs.

Some weakening of the 850mb thermal ridge is indicated for the
middle to late part of the week. With a bit of increased daytime
cloud cover, expect highs to ease back a few degrees across our
area.

The forecast is somewhat problematic for next weekend. The 12Z GFS
and ECMWF shift the center of the upper high back to the west over
Texas. With an upper trough moving across parts of southern Canada,
both models bring the trailing portion of associated cold front
south into Texas next Saturday. Indications are for the front to
probably stall somewhere over our area, and both models have QPF
with the front. Surface high north of the front is progged to be
fairly strong for this time of year (over 1020mb), and could have
the effective front being driven south by convection. Have quite
a bit of uncertainty at this point on the details, however. Appears
that our northern counties would have the better chance of being
affected by the front and associated convection. Carrying slight
chance PoPs for that area Saturday night into Sunday night.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  75  99  74  96  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  76  99  74  95  73 /   0   5   5  10  10
Junction  74  95  73  92  73 /   0   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KCRP 012053
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
353 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...LESS CONVECTION
NOTICED ON RADAR AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DESPITE THE NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AVAILABLE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE WEAK
THETA-E RIDGE BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MOISTURE
INCREASES HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER HOWEVER BRING AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE TO SOUTH TEXAS. WITH THIS SAID...POPS WILL BE ON THE RISE
BEGINNING TUESDAY. AS A WEAK SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY. DID EXTEND HIGH END CHANCE POPS FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST. ACTIVITY SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OVER THE WATERS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND SOUTHERN CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. MADE MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES KEEPING RELATIVELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TO NEAR 100 OUT WEST DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS
PROG TO BE PUSHING INLAND OVER NE MX AT START OF LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER CWA /ASSUMING TD5 DOES
NOT INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO PREVENT DEEP MOISTURE FROM OVERSPREADING THE
REGION/. WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POPS OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS AXIS OF DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF LOW CONVECTIVE TEMP VALUES.
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. REMNANTS OF TD5 SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL ON THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE LIKELY
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA /GREATEST VALUES ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES/...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEARLY AREAWIDE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. ECMWF/CMC ARE MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF AN ECMWF/CMC AND SLIGHT GFS
BLEND FOR POPS. MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS PROG TO EXIT THE REGION BY
FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAILY CONVECTION EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT IS PROG BY THE
ECMWF/GFS TO STALL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE THE CMC WANTS TO BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/GFS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ ON
WED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DETERMINED BY
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS /WHICH ARE NOW STARTING TO
SLOWLY COOL/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  78  88  77  /  20  50  30  70  40
VICTORIA          77  94  77  92  76  /  20  50  20  50  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  93  78  /  10  20  10  60  30
ALICE             76  95  77  88  75  /  10  50  20  70  30
ROCKPORT          81  91  81  88  79  /  30  40  30  60  30
COTULLA           77  98  77  93  76  /  10  20  10  40  30
KINGSVILLE        78  93  78  88  76  /  20  50  30  70  40
NAVY CORPUS       81  90  81  88  79  /  20  40  30  70  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 012053
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
353 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...LESS CONVECTION
NOTICED ON RADAR AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DESPITE THE NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AVAILABLE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE WEAK
THETA-E RIDGE BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MOISTURE
INCREASES HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER HOWEVER BRING AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE TO SOUTH TEXAS. WITH THIS SAID...POPS WILL BE ON THE RISE
BEGINNING TUESDAY. AS A WEAK SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY. DID EXTEND HIGH END CHANCE POPS FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST. ACTIVITY SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OVER THE WATERS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND SOUTHERN CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. MADE MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES KEEPING RELATIVELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TO NEAR 100 OUT WEST DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS
PROG TO BE PUSHING INLAND OVER NE MX AT START OF LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER CWA /ASSUMING TD5 DOES
NOT INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO PREVENT DEEP MOISTURE FROM OVERSPREADING THE
REGION/. WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POPS OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS AXIS OF DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF LOW CONVECTIVE TEMP VALUES.
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. REMNANTS OF TD5 SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL ON THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE LIKELY
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA /GREATEST VALUES ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES/...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEARLY AREAWIDE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. ECMWF/CMC ARE MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF AN ECMWF/CMC AND SLIGHT GFS
BLEND FOR POPS. MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS PROG TO EXIT THE REGION BY
FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAILY CONVECTION EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT IS PROG BY THE
ECMWF/GFS TO STALL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE THE CMC WANTS TO BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/GFS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ ON
WED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DETERMINED BY
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS /WHICH ARE NOW STARTING TO
SLOWLY COOL/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  78  88  77  /  20  50  30  70  40
VICTORIA          77  94  77  92  76  /  20  50  20  50  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  93  78  /  10  20  10  60  30
ALICE             76  95  77  88  75  /  10  50  20  70  30
ROCKPORT          81  91  81  88  79  /  30  40  30  60  30
COTULLA           77  98  77  93  76  /  10  20  10  40  30
KINGSVILLE        78  93  78  88  76  /  20  50  30  70  40
NAVY CORPUS       81  90  81  88  79  /  20  40  30  70  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 012053
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
353 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...LESS CONVECTION
NOTICED ON RADAR AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DESPITE THE NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AVAILABLE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE WEAK
THETA-E RIDGE BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MOISTURE
INCREASES HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER HOWEVER BRING AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE TO SOUTH TEXAS. WITH THIS SAID...POPS WILL BE ON THE RISE
BEGINNING TUESDAY. AS A WEAK SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY. DID EXTEND HIGH END CHANCE POPS FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST. ACTIVITY SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OVER THE WATERS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND SOUTHERN CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. MADE MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES KEEPING RELATIVELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TO NEAR 100 OUT WEST DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS
PROG TO BE PUSHING INLAND OVER NE MX AT START OF LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER CWA /ASSUMING TD5 DOES
NOT INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO PREVENT DEEP MOISTURE FROM OVERSPREADING THE
REGION/. WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POPS OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS AXIS OF DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF LOW CONVECTIVE TEMP VALUES.
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. REMNANTS OF TD5 SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL ON THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE LIKELY
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA /GREATEST VALUES ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES/...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEARLY AREAWIDE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. ECMWF/CMC ARE MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF AN ECMWF/CMC AND SLIGHT GFS
BLEND FOR POPS. MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS PROG TO EXIT THE REGION BY
FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAILY CONVECTION EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT IS PROG BY THE
ECMWF/GFS TO STALL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE THE CMC WANTS TO BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/GFS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ ON
WED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DETERMINED BY
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS /WHICH ARE NOW STARTING TO
SLOWLY COOL/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  78  88  77  /  20  50  30  70  40
VICTORIA          77  94  77  92  76  /  20  50  20  50  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  93  78  /  10  20  10  60  30
ALICE             76  95  77  88  75  /  10  50  20  70  30
ROCKPORT          81  91  81  88  79  /  30  40  30  60  30
COTULLA           77  98  77  93  76  /  10  20  10  40  30
KINGSVILLE        78  93  78  88  76  /  20  50  30  70  40
NAVY CORPUS       81  90  81  88  79  /  20  40  30  70  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 012053
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
353 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...LESS CONVECTION
NOTICED ON RADAR AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DESPITE THE NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AVAILABLE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE WEAK
THETA-E RIDGE BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MOISTURE
INCREASES HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER HOWEVER BRING AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE TO SOUTH TEXAS. WITH THIS SAID...POPS WILL BE ON THE RISE
BEGINNING TUESDAY. AS A WEAK SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY. DID EXTEND HIGH END CHANCE POPS FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST. ACTIVITY SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OVER THE WATERS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND SOUTHERN CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. MADE MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES KEEPING RELATIVELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TO NEAR 100 OUT WEST DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS
PROG TO BE PUSHING INLAND OVER NE MX AT START OF LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER CWA /ASSUMING TD5 DOES
NOT INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO PREVENT DEEP MOISTURE FROM OVERSPREADING THE
REGION/. WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POPS OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS AXIS OF DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF LOW CONVECTIVE TEMP VALUES.
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. REMNANTS OF TD5 SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL ON THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE LIKELY
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA /GREATEST VALUES ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES/...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEARLY AREAWIDE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. ECMWF/CMC ARE MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF AN ECMWF/CMC AND SLIGHT GFS
BLEND FOR POPS. MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS PROG TO EXIT THE REGION BY
FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAILY CONVECTION EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT IS PROG BY THE
ECMWF/GFS TO STALL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE THE CMC WANTS TO BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/GFS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ ON
WED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DETERMINED BY
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS /WHICH ARE NOW STARTING TO
SLOWLY COOL/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  78  88  77  /  20  50  30  70  40
VICTORIA          77  94  77  92  76  /  20  50  20  50  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  93  78  /  10  20  10  60  30
ALICE             76  95  77  88  75  /  10  50  20  70  30
ROCKPORT          81  91  81  88  79  /  30  40  30  60  30
COTULLA           77  98  77  93  76  /  10  20  10  40  30
KINGSVILLE        78  93  78  88  76  /  20  50  30  70  40
NAVY CORPUS       81  90  81  88  79  /  20  40  30  70  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KEWX 012033
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  97  77  96  75 /   0  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  97  74  96  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  77  94  74 /   0  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  95  76  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  94  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  96  75  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  96  76  96  76 /  10  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  77  96  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  98  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 012033
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  97  77  96  75 /   0  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  97  74  96  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  77  94  74 /   0  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  95  76  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  94  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  96  75  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  96  76  96  76 /  10  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  77  96  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  98  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 012033
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  97  77  96  75 /   0  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  97  74  96  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  77  94  74 /   0  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  95  76  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  94  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  96  75  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  96  76  96  76 /  10  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  77  96  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  98  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 012033
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BROAD
SHALLOW TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST BORDER AND MOISTER AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST HAD THE
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A TROPICAL CIRCULATION
EMERGING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DURING THIS PERIOD NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVING US ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PERHAPS
REACHING I-35. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETREATING TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NHC HAS LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF BY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS MOVE THIS CIRCULATION INTO MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF
TEXAS...BUT MOISTURE COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD TO OUR CWA. THIS WILL
MEAN CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST INTO MEXICO...OUR WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  97  77  96  75 /   0  20  10  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  97  74  96  73 /   0  20  10  20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  96  75  94  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78 100  77  94  74 /   0  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  95  76  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  97  74  94  72 /   0  10  10  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  96  75  95  74 /   0  20  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  96  76  96  76 /  10  30  20  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  77  96  76 /   0  10  10  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  98  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KLUB 012026
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
HOT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH A SURFACE HEAT LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. LUBBOCK ALREADY HAS SURPASSED ITS PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORD WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. DRY-LINE
STILL FAIRLY DIFFUSE STRETCHING FROM TAHOKA THROUGH MATADOR INTO
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT VICINITY OF PALO DURO CANYON. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT SLIPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAS HUNG
UP THIS VICINITY THOUGH DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH THE WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HEAT LOW. BUT AREAS NORTH OF TULIA TO MULESHOE LINE ARE
YET A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH AND PROBABLY CLOSE TO THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WAS ALOFT AND WE HAVE
NOT YET SEEN A CUMULUS FIELD FILLING IN THROUGH THE DRY-LINE OR
SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST NOW
REACHING 100 DEGREES SO SHOULD SEE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
STILL SUPPORT SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE DRY-LINE FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS ALREADY INDICATED.
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN EAST OF THE DRY-LINE GIVING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY HIGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...WHILE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE NEAR 30 KNOTS
JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. SO WE STILL CONSIDER THERE TO BE
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS WELL SHOULD STORMS GET GOING. WE HAVE
RETAINED PREVIOUS COVERAGE AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET THEN GET A WEAKER SHOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
LESS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT DIP
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL
THUNDER CHANCE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE MAIN
LIMITERS. BUT HEATING ONCE MORE MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING SO HAVE RETAINED THAT PREVIOUS LOW MENTION.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT SHOWS HINTS OF BEGINNING TO ERODE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY...WE REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

BY LATE THURSDAY A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE EAST OUT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WHEN
AIDED BY MOISTURE FETCH FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN RIDGING
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. 31/00Z ECMWF INDICATED PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST...GFS
RUNS SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT...REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY LIFTING THE
TROUGH NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BUT 01/12Z
GFS DEEPENED THE TROUGH AND SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF...AN ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE 01/12Z ECMWF
DEEPENED THE PACIFIC TROUGH EVEN MORE...RESULTING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE 6DAY/7DAY TIME FRAME HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS FROM SLIGHT &
ISOLATED WHILE FULLY RECOGNIZING THE TREND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND...A QUICK PEEK BEYOND EVEN THE WEEKEND HAS BOTH MODELS
HINTING TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH ABSORBING THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE BAJA WHICH WOULD HAVE WET IMPLICATIONS FOR US AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  63  93  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     69  95  67  93  66 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     68  95  66  92  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  96  70  92  68 /  10  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  92  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  97  66  93  67 /  10  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     75  98  72  96  71 /  20  10  10  10   0
SPUR          73  97  72  95  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  72 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/55





000
FXUS64 KLUB 012026
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
HOT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH A SURFACE HEAT LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. LUBBOCK ALREADY HAS SURPASSED ITS PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORD WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. DRY-LINE
STILL FAIRLY DIFFUSE STRETCHING FROM TAHOKA THROUGH MATADOR INTO
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT VICINITY OF PALO DURO CANYON. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT SLIPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAS HUNG
UP THIS VICINITY THOUGH DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH THE WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HEAT LOW. BUT AREAS NORTH OF TULIA TO MULESHOE LINE ARE
YET A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH AND PROBABLY CLOSE TO THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WAS ALOFT AND WE HAVE
NOT YET SEEN A CUMULUS FIELD FILLING IN THROUGH THE DRY-LINE OR
SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST NOW
REACHING 100 DEGREES SO SHOULD SEE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
STILL SUPPORT SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE DRY-LINE FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS ALREADY INDICATED.
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN EAST OF THE DRY-LINE GIVING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY HIGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...WHILE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE NEAR 30 KNOTS
JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. SO WE STILL CONSIDER THERE TO BE
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS WELL SHOULD STORMS GET GOING. WE HAVE
RETAINED PREVIOUS COVERAGE AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET THEN GET A WEAKER SHOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
LESS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT DIP
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL
THUNDER CHANCE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE MAIN
LIMITERS. BUT HEATING ONCE MORE MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING SO HAVE RETAINED THAT PREVIOUS LOW MENTION.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT SHOWS HINTS OF BEGINNING TO ERODE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY...WE REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

BY LATE THURSDAY A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE EAST OUT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WHEN
AIDED BY MOISTURE FETCH FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN RIDGING
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. 31/00Z ECMWF INDICATED PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST...GFS
RUNS SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT...REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY LIFTING THE
TROUGH NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BUT 01/12Z
GFS DEEPENED THE TROUGH AND SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF...AN ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE 01/12Z ECMWF
DEEPENED THE PACIFIC TROUGH EVEN MORE...RESULTING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE 6DAY/7DAY TIME FRAME HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS FROM SLIGHT &
ISOLATED WHILE FULLY RECOGNIZING THE TREND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND...A QUICK PEEK BEYOND EVEN THE WEEKEND HAS BOTH MODELS
HINTING TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH ABSORBING THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE BAJA WHICH WOULD HAVE WET IMPLICATIONS FOR US AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  63  93  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     69  95  67  93  66 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     68  95  66  92  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  96  70  92  68 /  10  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  92  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  97  66  93  67 /  10  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     75  98  72  96  71 /  20  10  10  10   0
SPUR          73  97  72  95  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  72 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/55






000
FXUS64 KHGX 012026
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PW VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 1.90 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS INDUCING A BIT MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS PROBABLY LIMITING AREA COVERAGE. SFC DEW PTS DID NOT
MIX OUT THIS MORNING AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKED NEAR 105 DEGREES
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 2.10
INCHES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. THE WAVE
OVER THE SW GULF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LIFT. TPC WILL UPGRADE
THE WEAK WAVE TO TD #5 LATER THIS AFTN. TD #5 WILL REMAIN A WEAK
SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SE TX OTHER THAN AN
INCREASE IN SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SLOWLY WARM BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FEEL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. DON`T REALLY SEE
ANY FEATURES THAT WOULD EITHER ENHANCE OR DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES SO
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FCST AS IS (LOW END CHANCE POPS). NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE STATE BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. 43

CLIMATE...
THE CLIMOTOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

MARINE...
A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PULLING IN
A HIGHER CENTRAL GULF SWELL INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ADDED ONTO ALREADY 3 TO 4 FOOT
WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET OCCURRING OVER
THE FAR (PRIMARILY WESTERN) OFFSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THIS DISTURBANCE`S NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
BE AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CRITERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 012026
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PW VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 1.90 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS INDUCING A BIT MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS PROBABLY LIMITING AREA COVERAGE. SFC DEW PTS DID NOT
MIX OUT THIS MORNING AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKED NEAR 105 DEGREES
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 2.10
INCHES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. THE WAVE
OVER THE SW GULF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LIFT. TPC WILL UPGRADE
THE WEAK WAVE TO TD #5 LATER THIS AFTN. TD #5 WILL REMAIN A WEAK
SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SE TX OTHER THAN AN
INCREASE IN SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SLOWLY WARM BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FEEL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. DON`T REALLY SEE
ANY FEATURES THAT WOULD EITHER ENHANCE OR DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES SO
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FCST AS IS (LOW END CHANCE POPS). NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE STATE BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. 43

CLIMATE...
THE CLIMOTOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

MARINE...
A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PULLING IN
A HIGHER CENTRAL GULF SWELL INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ADDED ONTO ALREADY 3 TO 4 FOOT
WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET OCCURRING OVER
THE FAR (PRIMARILY WESTERN) OFFSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THIS DISTURBANCE`S NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
BE AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CRITERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 012026
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PW VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 1.90 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS INDUCING A BIT MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS PROBABLY LIMITING AREA COVERAGE. SFC DEW PTS DID NOT
MIX OUT THIS MORNING AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKED NEAR 105 DEGREES
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 2.10
INCHES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. THE WAVE
OVER THE SW GULF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LIFT. TPC WILL UPGRADE
THE WEAK WAVE TO TD #5 LATER THIS AFTN. TD #5 WILL REMAIN A WEAK
SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SE TX OTHER THAN AN
INCREASE IN SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SLOWLY WARM BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FEEL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. DON`T REALLY SEE
ANY FEATURES THAT WOULD EITHER ENHANCE OR DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES SO
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FCST AS IS (LOW END CHANCE POPS). NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE STATE BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. 43

CLIMATE...
THE CLIMOTOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

MARINE...
A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PULLING IN
A HIGHER CENTRAL GULF SWELL INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ADDED ONTO ALREADY 3 TO 4 FOOT
WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET OCCURRING OVER
THE FAR (PRIMARILY WESTERN) OFFSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THIS DISTURBANCE`S NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
BE AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CRITERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 012026
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PW VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 1.90 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS INDUCING A BIT MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS PROBABLY LIMITING AREA COVERAGE. SFC DEW PTS DID NOT
MIX OUT THIS MORNING AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKED NEAR 105 DEGREES
AT A FEW LOCATIONS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 2.10
INCHES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. THE WAVE
OVER THE SW GULF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LIFT. TPC WILL UPGRADE
THE WEAK WAVE TO TD #5 LATER THIS AFTN. TD #5 WILL REMAIN A WEAK
SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SE TX OTHER THAN AN
INCREASE IN SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SLOWLY WARM BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FEEL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. DON`T REALLY SEE
ANY FEATURES THAT WOULD EITHER ENHANCE OR DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES SO
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FCST AS IS (LOW END CHANCE POPS). NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE STATE BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. 43

CLIMATE...
THE CLIMOTOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

MARINE...
A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PULLING IN
A HIGHER CENTRAL GULF SWELL INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ADDED ONTO ALREADY 3 TO 4 FOOT
WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET OCCURRING OVER
THE FAR (PRIMARILY WESTERN) OFFSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THIS DISTURBANCE`S NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
BE AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CRITERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  40  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KFWD 012025
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STALL BEFORE MAKING MUCH MORE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING...AND STEERING FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER NORTH TEXAS FEATURES
STRONG CIN WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THERE
MAY BE A TINY BIT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES BY MORNING FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS...BUT
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF ANY OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION TO REMAIN
IN OKLAHOMA. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 10 PERCENT IN THIS AREA BUT WILL
KEEP THE WORDED FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE...A QUIET AND SEASONABLY
MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE/STRATUS NORTHWARD...WHICH WILL IMPACT ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS THIS MORNING/S STRATUS INTRUSION.

MEANWHILE A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE APPEARS TO
BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE THE TROPICAL LOW CENTER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ON A WEST/NORTHWEST TRACK INTO CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO...THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS
COASTLINE TOMORROW WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMASS WILL CONTAIN
AMPLE UNCAPPED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER DUE TO LIMITED LIFT...WILL
KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
OTHERWISE DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE...WITH HIGHS AGAIN
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.
SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION JUST HOT AND DRY. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO KEEP
THE REMNANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE/CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
WITH MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FORCED INTO AND RUNG OUT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO COOL A DEGREE OR TWO BY FRIDAY...BUT STILL
THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. SINCE THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT FOR A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOLER AIR...AND THEREFORE ONLY A
VERY SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL PUT TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED FOR ANY GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

TR.92


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/
SKIES HAVE BECOME VFR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS OF 17Z. WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WITH
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
AFTER 06Z AND INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE METROPLEX
BEFORE 12Z. THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT AND BREAK UP BY 15Z IN THE
METROPLEX AND BY 17Z AT WACO. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS LIKELY 18-23Z...AND AGAIN
BY 17Z TUESDAY.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  97  78  97  77 /   0   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              78  98  76  97  74 /   5  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             74  93  74  94  73 /   5  10  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            78  96  75  96  75 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          77  95  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  97  78  97  78 /   0  10  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  95  75 /   0  10  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         76  95  76  96  74 /   5  20  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  97  75  96  74 /   5  20  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  98  74  98  72 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 012014
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. PW VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 1.90 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS INDUCING A BIT MORE SUBSIDENCE IS
PROBABLY LIMITING AREA COVERAGE. SFC DEW PTS DID NOT MIX OUT THIS
MORNING AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKED NEAR 105 DEGREES AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 2.10 INCHES. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. THE WAVE OVER THE SW GULF
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LIFT. TPC HAS JUST UPGRADED THIS SYSTEM TO TD
#5. TD #5 WILL REMAIN A WEAK SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON SE TX OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SLOWLY WARM BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FEEL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. DON`T REALLY SEE
ANY FEATURES THAT WOULD EITHER ENHANCE OR DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES SO
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FCST AS IS (LOW END CHANCE POPS). NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE STATE BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. 43

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CLIMOTOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

&&

.MARINE...
A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PULLING IN
A HIGHER CENTRAL GULF SWELL INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ADDED ONTO ALREADY 3 TO 4 FOOT
WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET OCCURRING OVER
THE FAR (PRIMARILY WESTERN) OFFSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THIS DISTURBANCE`S NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
BE AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CRITERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  50  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  40  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 012014
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
214 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...AND THEN WILL COOL DOWN TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A STABLE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS AT
THE LOWER LEVELS COMBINE TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AT 5
TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME
AFTERNOON BUILD UPS.

STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN OVERHEAD AND
REFORM MORE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS STABLE
CONDITIONS AND A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO MAYBE
PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOWLANDS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ON THURSDAY...A DEEPER FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE OVERALL CLOUDINESS AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN BOTH THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND AN INCH WHICH WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OF WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE MORE ISOLATED
THAN SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY A TROPICAL
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
WEAKENED OVER THE AREA WITH LITTLE INHIBITION TO CONVECTION
EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO A 130 TO A
160 PERCENT OF NORMAL...INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE WEEKEND. OVERALL NEXT WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE VERY
ACTIVE AND WET WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z - 03/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW120 THRU PD. WINDS W TO NW UP TO 12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE TEENS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE SACS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WOULD BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REALLY MAKE A RETURN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY
STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72 100  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           65  96  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              67  98  67  97  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              65  97  66  96  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              48  78  49  75  51 /   0   0   0  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  97  66  94  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             60  93  61  92  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  64  99  63  97  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               62  97  63  96  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  99  72  98  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               66 100  67  98  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            68  99  71  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              70  93  68  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  66  97  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            69  99  70  97  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  96  69  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           62  96  63  96  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   64  98  65  97  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                67  96  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               68  97  68  96  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 56  85  55  83  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
MESCALERO               55  86  56  84  55 /   0   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                52  86  53  84  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 57  87  58  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               62  92  63  92  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               65  96  66  95  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            56  90  56  89  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  60  94  61  94  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   56  95  58  92  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              51  92  52  90  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 62  92  62  92  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  66  95  67  95  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 61  97  62  96  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          63  95  61  94  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              62  93  63  93  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 012014
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
214 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...AND THEN WILL COOL DOWN TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A STABLE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS AT
THE LOWER LEVELS COMBINE TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AT 5
TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME
AFTERNOON BUILD UPS.

STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN OVERHEAD AND
REFORM MORE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS STABLE
CONDITIONS AND A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO MAYBE
PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE LOWLANDS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ON THURSDAY...A DEEPER FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE OVERALL CLOUDINESS AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN BOTH THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND AN INCH WHICH WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OF WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE MORE ISOLATED
THAN SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...A DEEPER FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THE FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY A TROPICAL
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
WEAKENED OVER THE AREA WITH LITTLE INHIBITION TO CONVECTION
EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO A 130 TO A
160 PERCENT OF NORMAL...INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE WEEKEND. OVERALL NEXT WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE VERY
ACTIVE AND WET WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z - 03/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW120 THRU PD. WINDS W TO NW UP TO 12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE TEENS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD OCCUR OVER THE SACS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WOULD BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REALLY MAKE A RETURN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY
STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72 100  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           65  96  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              67  98  67  97  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              65  97  66  96  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              48  78  49  75  51 /   0   0   0  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  97  66  94  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             60  93  61  92  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  64  99  63  97  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               62  97  63  96  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  99  72  98  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               66 100  67  98  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            68  99  71  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              70  93  68  93  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  66  97  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            69  99  70  97  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  96  69  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           62  96  63  96  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   64  98  65  97  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                67  96  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               68  97  68  96  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 56  85  55  83  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
MESCALERO               55  86  56  84  55 /   0   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                52  86  53  84  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 57  87  58  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               62  92  63  92  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               65  96  66  95  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            56  90  56  89  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  60  94  61  94  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   56  95  58  92  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              51  92  52  90  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 62  92  62  92  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  66  95  67  95  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 61  97  62  96  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          63  95  61  94  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              62  93  63  93  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KHGX 012014
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIPITATION THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS. PW VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 1.90 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS INDUCING A BIT MORE SUBSIDENCE IS
PROBABLY LIMITING AREA COVERAGE. SFC DEW PTS DID NOT MIX OUT THIS
MORNING AND HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKED NEAR 105 DEGREES AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH 2.10 INCHES. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. THE WAVE OVER THE SW GULF
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LIFT. TPC HAS JUST UPGRADED THIS SYSTEM TO TD
#5. TD #5 WILL REMAIN A WEAK SYSTEM AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON SE TX OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN SWELLS OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.

MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SLOWLY WARM BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FEEL WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. DON`T REALLY SEE
ANY FEATURES THAT WOULD EITHER ENHANCE OR DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES SO
WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FCST AS IS (LOW END CHANCE POPS). NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE STATE BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOESN`T LOOK
ALL THAT FAVORABLE FOR A FRONT TO MOVE THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA. 43

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CLIMOTOLOGIC SUMMER DEFINED AS JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST HAS
COME TO AN END AND THERE WERE NO 100 DEGREE DAYS RECORDED AT ANY
OF THE 4 FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON HAS NOT HAD A SUMMER
FREE OF 100 DEGREE DAYS SINCE SINCE 1997 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS
NOT ACHIEVED THIS FEAT SINCE 2004. THE AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE SUMMER
WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND A BIT
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF OF I-10. 43

SITE               2014 AVERAGE       1981-2010 AVERAGE     DEP
                   SUMMER TEMP        SUMMER TEMP

CITY OF HOUSTON       83.6                83.8              -0.2
COLLEGE STATION       83.4                84.1              -0.7
CITY OF GALVESTON     84.5                84.1              +0.3
HOUSTON HOBBY         83.7                83.3              +0.4

&&

.MARINE...
A BAY OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PULLING IN
A HIGHER CENTRAL GULF SWELL INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO ADDED ONTO ALREADY 3 TO 4 FOOT
WAVE HEIGHTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF AROUND 7 FEET OCCURRING OVER
THE FAR (PRIMARILY WESTERN) OFFSHORE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THIS DISTURBANCE`S NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL
BE AROUND...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED...SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CRITERIA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  94  76  95  75 /  10  30  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  92  77  93  76 /  20  50  20  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  30  40  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBRO 011937
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NEXT 36 HOURS BEGINS
TRANSITION FROM INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK OVER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE LURKING IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PW VALUES THIS
MORNING WERE ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY AND SLOWLY BUILD IT AS THE GULF FEATURE DRIFTS WNW.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUAL FEED OF
STREAMER SHOWERS UPSTREAM FRO THE VALLEY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...BUT
HI PW SIGNAL WILL MEAN ANY SHOWER WILL PROVIDE AMPLE RAINFALL IN A
SMALL AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE. TOMORROW THE DISTURBANCE IS IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE H5
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...THE GULF FEATURE
WILL LIKELY DEFLECT WWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MEXICO COAST. INSTABILITY
AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FEATURE AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
ENTIRE PARCEL WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
BACK BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER...KEEPING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.

PW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HEATING INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING IN FRO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING HEAVIER RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH FAVOR DEVELOPMENT BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WX RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE
THAT FEEDS NORTH ON THE LARGER SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW DOMINATING THE
GULF.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE EARLY
LONG TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD
BETTER THAN EVEN ODDS...OR 50 PERCENT...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY
CASE...A FEW DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A
FEW INCHES DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A
HEAVILY LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH POPS WED THROUGH
THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND WILL THUS TREND
DOWN CONV CHCS INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE TROPICAL FEED SHIFTS
WEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...OPTED TO GO WITH A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH
DAY 7. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT WED AND THURS AS
CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT
LATER AS CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A LITTLE MORE DIURNAL HEATING IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND...AND CONDITIONS WILL RECOVER WITH LOWER...MORE TYPICAL
MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT LIKELY A
BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW NORMAL. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR EVEN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK...INCLUDING
EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AGITATION FORECAST FOR THE
MARINE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH
SOME WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
START TO INCREASE LATER TOMORROW...WITH SEAS REACHING 6 TO 7 FEET
FOR THE GULF WATERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20NM TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
TROPICAL FEATURE MOVES INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY DUE TO SWELL FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. SOUTH
EAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THE ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND THE ASSOC SWELL GENERATING WINDS DECREASE.
THURSDAY WILL THEREFORE BE MORE OF A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
DAY. FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE WINDS AND
WAVES...WITH LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PART
AND PARCEL OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  91  79  88 /  20  50  40  70
BROWNSVILLE          79  93  78  88 /  20  50  50  60
HARLINGEN            78  94  77  89 /  20  50  40  60
MCALLEN              79  96  78  90 /  10  50  30  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      80  98  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  88  80  87 /  20  50  40  70

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/54/MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 011937
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...NEXT 36 HOURS BEGINS
TRANSITION FROM INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK OVER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE LURKING IN THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PW VALUES THIS
MORNING WERE ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY AND SLOWLY BUILD IT AS THE GULF FEATURE DRIFTS WNW.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUAL FEED OF
STREAMER SHOWERS UPSTREAM FRO THE VALLEY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...BUT
HI PW SIGNAL WILL MEAN ANY SHOWER WILL PROVIDE AMPLE RAINFALL IN A
SMALL AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH SUNRISE. TOMORROW THE DISTURBANCE IS IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH THE H5
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...THE GULF FEATURE
WILL LIKELY DEFLECT WWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MEXICO COAST. INSTABILITY
AROUND THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FEATURE AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE
ENTIRE PARCEL WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING REGIONS WILL
BECOME A CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD
BACK BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER...KEEPING HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S.

PW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HEATING INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING IN FRO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING HEAVIER RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EARLY
PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH FAVOR DEVELOPMENT BUT LONGEVITY
WILL BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE MODELS MOVING WHATEVER DEVELOPS ON THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WX RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON THE MOISTURE
THAT FEEDS NORTH ON THE LARGER SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW DOMINATING THE
GULF.

NONETHELESS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE CWA IN THE EARLY
LONG TERM AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE TWO INCHES BY LATE TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE BALANCED WITH PERSISTENCE TO YIELD
BETTER THAN EVEN ODDS...OR 50 PERCENT...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER THE MARINE AREAS. IN ANY
CASE...A FEW DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE...WITH AREAL
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO VARY FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO A
FEW INCHES DEPENDING ON WHETHER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT ENDS UP UNDER A
HEAVILY LOADED TROPICAL TOWER.

THE ECMWF AND GFS POPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH POPS WED THROUGH
THURS AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SURGES WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AND WILL THUS TREND
DOWN CONV CHCS INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE TROPICAL FEED SHIFTS
WEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS.

SINCE THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...OPTED TO GO WITH A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH
DAY 7. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED A BIT WED AND THURS AS
CONV CHCS MAX OUT OVER THE AREA. WILL THEN TREND THE TEMPS UP A BIT
LATER AS CONV CHCS FADE A BIT AND A LITTLE MORE DIURNAL HEATING IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO GEL TOWARDS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS ALSO
BEEN PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS KEEPING THE HIGHEST
POPS FOR WED AND THURS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND...AND CONDITIONS WILL RECOVER WITH LOWER...MORE TYPICAL
MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A GOOD MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...BUT LIKELY A
BIT MORE CLOUDS...AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BELOW NORMAL. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S HOWEVER...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL INTO THE 90S OR EVEN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK...INCLUDING
EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AGITATION FORECAST FOR THE
MARINE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH
SOME WINDS NEARING 20 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
START TO INCREASE LATER TOMORROW...WITH SEAS REACHING 6 TO 7 FEET
FOR THE GULF WATERS BY TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS BEYOND 20NM TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE
TROPICAL FEATURE MOVES INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY DUE TO SWELL FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. SOUTH
EAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THE ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND THE ASSOC SWELL GENERATING WINDS DECREASE.
THURSDAY WILL THEREFORE BE MORE OF A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
DAY. FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE WINDS AND
WAVES...WITH LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PART
AND PARCEL OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  91  79  88 /  20  50  40  70
BROWNSVILLE          79  93  78  88 /  20  50  50  60
HARLINGEN            78  94  77  89 /  20  50  40  60
MCALLEN              79  96  78  90 /  10  50  30  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      80  98  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  88  80  87 /  20  50  40  70

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-
     257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/54/MARTINEZ





000
FXUS64 KMAF 011930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to