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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241727
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1227 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Permian Basin for the
remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Gusty west
winds will subside after sunset. Next storm system will approach
late tonight and may bring convection to portions of the area
before 12Z, but looks to remain east of any of the terminals for
now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected as dry southwest winds develop this
morning. Wind gusts to 20 KTS possible mid morning through sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241727
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1227 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Permian Basin for the
remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Gusty west
winds will subside after sunset. Next storm system will approach
late tonight and may bring convection to portions of the area
before 12Z, but looks to remain east of any of the terminals for
now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected as dry southwest winds develop this
morning. Wind gusts to 20 KTS possible mid morning through sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 241703
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1203 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect mainly VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Stratus
will return north across West Central Texas tonight as low level
southerly flow increases. We will see MFVR ceilings at the
southern terminals by 09Z and the KABI terminal by 12Z. Also, a
strong upper level disturbance may bring showers and thunderstorms
to much of the area after 12Z, and have added VCSH to most of the
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Updated zones and grids to expire the flash flood watch and reduce
Pops to mainly chance for today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  40  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  30  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  30  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KSJT 241703
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1203 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect mainly VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Stratus
will return north across West Central Texas tonight as low level
southerly flow increases. We will see MFVR ceilings at the
southern terminals by 09Z and the KABI terminal by 12Z. Also, a
strong upper level disturbance may bring showers and thunderstorms
to much of the area after 12Z, and have added VCSH to most of the
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Updated zones and grids to expire the flash flood watch and reduce
Pops to mainly chance for today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  40  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  30  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  30  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KSJT 241703
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1203 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect mainly VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Stratus
will return north across West Central Texas tonight as low level
southerly flow increases. We will see MFVR ceilings at the
southern terminals by 09Z and the KABI terminal by 12Z. Also, a
strong upper level disturbance may bring showers and thunderstorms
to much of the area after 12Z, and have added VCSH to most of the
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Updated zones and grids to expire the flash flood watch and reduce
Pops to mainly chance for today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  40  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  30  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  30  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KSJT 241703
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1203 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Expect mainly VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Stratus
will return north across West Central Texas tonight as low level
southerly flow increases. We will see MFVR ceilings at the
southern terminals by 09Z and the KABI terminal by 12Z. Also, a
strong upper level disturbance may bring showers and thunderstorms
to much of the area after 12Z, and have added VCSH to most of the
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Updated zones and grids to expire the flash flood watch and reduce
Pops to mainly chance for today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  40  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  30  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  30  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21




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000
FXUS64 KLUB 241654
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES
PROGGED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS
WERE VEERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WITH DRIER AIR NOTED
ADVECTING IN. FURTHER EAST...WINDS WERE BACKED OFF THE CAPROCK WITH
DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
A TIGHTENING DRYLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LIKELY SETTING UP SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. A COUPLE HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS EVEN
SUGGEST THE DRYLINE COULD BE AS FAR WEST AS A DIMMITT TO PLAINVIEW TO
POST LINE BY 21Z. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE THE DRYLINE IS LOCATED...FORCING
ALONG IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN THOUGH WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT LACKING AND EVEN SOMEWHAT
UNFAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS FORM...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. THE PRIMARY RISK
WOULD BE HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...0
TO 3 KM HELICITY VALUES INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY LOW LCLS AND BACKED FLOW COULD EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT IN THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY QUICKLY FADE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD THREATEN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THAT REGION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING KCDS WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THIS MIX OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO...RESTORING AIRPORT OPERATIONS BY 13-14Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AFTER THIS UNTIL AROUND MID-LATE MORNING WHEN
VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RESTORE VFR CONDITIONS. KLBB AND
KPVW WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IFR CEILINGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LIFT THESE TO
MVFR AND VFR BY MID MORNING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AT
KCDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT IMPACT AT TERMINAL REMAINS TOO UNLIKELY FOR
MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOME LOWER CLOUDS/POTENTIAL CEILINGS MAY
TRY TO MOVE BACK TOWARD KCDS OVERNIGHT...BUT DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN FROM THE WEST LOOKS TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY LOW FOR THE TIME
BEING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE BIG BEND INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU CONTINUES TO DRIVE A PLETHORA OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH A WELL DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX IN BETWEEN THE METROPLEX AND SHERMAN. HAVE SEEN SOME TRAILING
SHOWERS/STORMS GET GOING BETWEEN PECOS AND BIG SPRING WHICH COULD
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECTING THESE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME BLOSSOMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
MUCH STRONGER SHIELD OF ACTIVITY EAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON...BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/KANSAS...WILL LIKELY
KEEP MOST AREAS DRY AS A SURFACE LOW ALSO NUDGES EASTWARD FROM THE
FRONT RANGE TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS THUS MIXING THE DRYLINE NEAR OR
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WET SOILS AND FALLING PRESSURES IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO MAY ATTEMPT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD ULTIMATELY WIN OUT BY MID AFTERNOON AND PEAK HEATING.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. LOCALES
IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE/NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE
HELPED BY ANY MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS NEARER THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW...BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO BE THE OVERALL RULE
FOR WEST TEXAS. NONETHELESS...ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND NO CAP TO FIGHT AGAINST AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL DEVELOP OWING TO QUITE COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S-MID 80S.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT GIVEN 30-40 KNOTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD THEN ENSUE AS VEERING SURFACE WINDS
LIKELY KEEP LOW STRATUS/FOG EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
TRANS-PECOS...BUT ANY IMPACT IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MEMORIAL DAY PENDING MOISTURE
RETURN.

LONG TERM...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY
LEAVING US ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE FEATURE BY THE TIME THE
AFTERNOON ROLLS AROUND. AFTER PASSAGE...THOUGH NEAR ZONAL IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED THUS KEEPING THINGS FROM MAKING THE FCST TOO SIMPLE. INTO
THURSDAY...TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RETURN
OF SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES TO BE A HARBINGER OF ACTIVE
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS A BIT
MUDDIED UNTIL RIDGING OUT WEST FINALLY LOOKS TO START INTO THE
PICTURE NEXT WEEKEND. AS AN ASIDE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SPIN UP
A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC AROUND 1 JUNE.

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PAINTS A DRY PICTURE FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE DRYLINE LIGHTING UP ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING EAST DURING THE EVENING. TUESDAY APPEARS TO
BE A DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION THOUGH NWP INDICATES DETERMINISTIC
PRECIPITATION NOISE THOUGH NO CLEAR SIGNAL EXIST. THUS...WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THEREAFTER...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 241654
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES
PROGGED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS
WERE VEERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES WITH DRIER AIR NOTED
ADVECTING IN. FURTHER EAST...WINDS WERE BACKED OFF THE CAPROCK WITH
DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
A TIGHTENING DRYLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LIKELY SETTING UP SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. A COUPLE HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS EVEN
SUGGEST THE DRYLINE COULD BE AS FAR WEST AS A DIMMITT TO PLAINVIEW TO
POST LINE BY 21Z. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE THE DRYLINE IS LOCATED...FORCING
ALONG IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN THOUGH WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT LACKING AND EVEN SOMEWHAT
UNFAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS FORM...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. THE PRIMARY RISK
WOULD BE HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...0
TO 3 KM HELICITY VALUES INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY LOW LCLS AND BACKED FLOW COULD EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT IN THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY QUICKLY FADE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD THREATEN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING AS A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THAT REGION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING KCDS WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THIS MIX OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO...RESTORING AIRPORT OPERATIONS BY 13-14Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AFTER THIS UNTIL AROUND MID-LATE MORNING WHEN
VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RESTORE VFR CONDITIONS. KLBB AND
KPVW WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IFR CEILINGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LIFT THESE TO
MVFR AND VFR BY MID MORNING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AT
KCDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT IMPACT AT TERMINAL REMAINS TOO UNLIKELY FOR
MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOME LOWER CLOUDS/POTENTIAL CEILINGS MAY
TRY TO MOVE BACK TOWARD KCDS OVERNIGHT...BUT DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN FROM THE WEST LOOKS TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY LOW FOR THE TIME
BEING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE BIG BEND INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU CONTINUES TO DRIVE A PLETHORA OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH A WELL DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX IN BETWEEN THE METROPLEX AND SHERMAN. HAVE SEEN SOME TRAILING
SHOWERS/STORMS GET GOING BETWEEN PECOS AND BIG SPRING WHICH COULD
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECTING THESE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME BLOSSOMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
MUCH STRONGER SHIELD OF ACTIVITY EAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON...BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/KANSAS...WILL LIKELY
KEEP MOST AREAS DRY AS A SURFACE LOW ALSO NUDGES EASTWARD FROM THE
FRONT RANGE TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS THUS MIXING THE DRYLINE NEAR OR
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WET SOILS AND FALLING PRESSURES IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO MAY ATTEMPT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD ULTIMATELY WIN OUT BY MID AFTERNOON AND PEAK HEATING.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. LOCALES
IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE/NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE
HELPED BY ANY MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS NEARER THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW...BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO BE THE OVERALL RULE
FOR WEST TEXAS. NONETHELESS...ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND NO CAP TO FIGHT AGAINST AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL DEVELOP OWING TO QUITE COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S-MID 80S.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT GIVEN 30-40 KNOTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD THEN ENSUE AS VEERING SURFACE WINDS
LIKELY KEEP LOW STRATUS/FOG EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
TRANS-PECOS...BUT ANY IMPACT IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MEMORIAL DAY PENDING MOISTURE
RETURN.

LONG TERM...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY
LEAVING US ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE FEATURE BY THE TIME THE
AFTERNOON ROLLS AROUND. AFTER PASSAGE...THOUGH NEAR ZONAL IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED THUS KEEPING THINGS FROM MAKING THE FCST TOO SIMPLE. INTO
THURSDAY...TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RETURN
OF SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES TO BE A HARBINGER OF ACTIVE
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS A BIT
MUDDIED UNTIL RIDGING OUT WEST FINALLY LOOKS TO START INTO THE
PICTURE NEXT WEEKEND. AS AN ASIDE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SPIN UP
A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC AROUND 1 JUNE.

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PAINTS A DRY PICTURE FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE DRYLINE LIGHTING UP ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING EAST DURING THE EVENING. TUESDAY APPEARS TO
BE A DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION THOUGH NWP INDICATES DETERMINISTIC
PRECIPITATION NOISE THOUGH NO CLEAR SIGNAL EXIST. THUS...WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THEREAFTER...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





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000
FXUS64 KCRP 241630
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1130 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND SATL/UPR AIR OBSERVATIONS ALL
INDICATE A MUCH DRIER DAY TDA. WITH THE LATEST S/WV ALREADY EAST
OF THE CWA...THIS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. AS A RESULT...CANCELLED
THE FFA FOR ALL OF THE CWA AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT
CHC FOR TDA. ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER OUT WEST WHERE THERE
WL BE MORE INSOLATION. WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD CVR FURTHER
EAST AS THE HIGH CLOUD DECK WL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD.

THE NEXT FOCUS WL SHIFT TWDS MONDAY AS THE NEXT S/WV CURRENTLY
MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA AFFECTS THE RGN. THIS SYSTEM WL
BE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ONE EARLIER TDA. HOWEVER...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NRN AREAS WL BE ON THE SRN END
OF THE MAIN FORCING ASSCTD WITH THIS S/WV. SBCAPES ABV 4000 J/KG
AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR INDICATE A SVR THREAT FOR THE CWA ON
MONDAY.

MAY NEED A SMALL PORTION OF THE CWA IN A FFA FOR MONDAY...MAINLY
NORTHEASTERN AREAS. WL DECIDE IN THE AFTN PACKAGE ONE WAY OR THE
OTHER ON THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ESPECIALLY FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS WL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS OVER THE BAYS HAVE HAD A SLOW TIME RESPONDING TO THE
OVERALL GRADIENT DUE TO PRIOR STORMS. BUT THE OVERALL GRADIENT
SHOULD PUSH THE BAYS INTO LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BOTH TDA AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  77  84  77  84  /  20  30  70  50  40
VICTORIA          84  74  83  73  83  /  20  30  80  60  40
LAREDO            93  74  91  75  90  /  20  30  40  40  30
ALICE             88  75  86  76  86  /  20  30  70  50  30
ROCKPORT          83  78  82  77  82  /  20  30  70  60  40
COTULLA           90  73  88  72  88  /  20  30  70  40  30
KINGSVILLE        88  77  86  77  85  /  20  30  70  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       84  79  83  78  82  /  20  30  70  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 241630
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1130 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND SATL/UPR AIR OBSERVATIONS ALL
INDICATE A MUCH DRIER DAY TDA. WITH THE LATEST S/WV ALREADY EAST
OF THE CWA...THIS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. AS A RESULT...CANCELLED
THE FFA FOR ALL OF THE CWA AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT
CHC FOR TDA. ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER OUT WEST WHERE THERE
WL BE MORE INSOLATION. WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD CVR FURTHER
EAST AS THE HIGH CLOUD DECK WL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD.

THE NEXT FOCUS WL SHIFT TWDS MONDAY AS THE NEXT S/WV CURRENTLY
MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA AFFECTS THE RGN. THIS SYSTEM WL
BE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ONE EARLIER TDA. HOWEVER...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NRN AREAS WL BE ON THE SRN END
OF THE MAIN FORCING ASSCTD WITH THIS S/WV. SBCAPES ABV 4000 J/KG
AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR INDICATE A SVR THREAT FOR THE CWA ON
MONDAY.

MAY NEED A SMALL PORTION OF THE CWA IN A FFA FOR MONDAY...MAINLY
NORTHEASTERN AREAS. WL DECIDE IN THE AFTN PACKAGE ONE WAY OR THE
OTHER ON THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ESPECIALLY FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS WL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS OVER THE BAYS HAVE HAD A SLOW TIME RESPONDING TO THE
OVERALL GRADIENT DUE TO PRIOR STORMS. BUT THE OVERALL GRADIENT
SHOULD PUSH THE BAYS INTO LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BOTH TDA AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  77  84  77  84  /  20  30  70  50  40
VICTORIA          84  74  83  73  83  /  20  30  80  60  40
LAREDO            93  74  91  75  90  /  20  30  40  40  30
ALICE             88  75  86  76  86  /  20  30  70  50  30
ROCKPORT          83  78  82  77  82  /  20  30  70  60  40
COTULLA           90  73  88  72  88  /  20  30  70  40  30
KINGSVILLE        88  77  86  77  85  /  20  30  70  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       84  79  83  78  82  /  20  30  70  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 241630
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1130 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND SATL/UPR AIR OBSERVATIONS ALL
INDICATE A MUCH DRIER DAY TDA. WITH THE LATEST S/WV ALREADY EAST
OF THE CWA...THIS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. AS A RESULT...CANCELLED
THE FFA FOR ALL OF THE CWA AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT
CHC FOR TDA. ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER OUT WEST WHERE THERE
WL BE MORE INSOLATION. WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD CVR FURTHER
EAST AS THE HIGH CLOUD DECK WL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD.

THE NEXT FOCUS WL SHIFT TWDS MONDAY AS THE NEXT S/WV CURRENTLY
MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA AFFECTS THE RGN. THIS SYSTEM WL
BE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ONE EARLIER TDA. HOWEVER...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NRN AREAS WL BE ON THE SRN END
OF THE MAIN FORCING ASSCTD WITH THIS S/WV. SBCAPES ABV 4000 J/KG
AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR INDICATE A SVR THREAT FOR THE CWA ON
MONDAY.

MAY NEED A SMALL PORTION OF THE CWA IN A FFA FOR MONDAY...MAINLY
NORTHEASTERN AREAS. WL DECIDE IN THE AFTN PACKAGE ONE WAY OR THE
OTHER ON THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ESPECIALLY FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS WL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS OVER THE BAYS HAVE HAD A SLOW TIME RESPONDING TO THE
OVERALL GRADIENT DUE TO PRIOR STORMS. BUT THE OVERALL GRADIENT
SHOULD PUSH THE BAYS INTO LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BOTH TDA AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  77  84  77  84  /  20  30  70  50  40
VICTORIA          84  74  83  73  83  /  20  30  80  60  40
LAREDO            93  74  91  75  90  /  20  30  40  40  30
ALICE             88  75  86  76  86  /  20  30  70  50  30
ROCKPORT          83  78  82  77  82  /  20  30  70  60  40
COTULLA           90  73  88  72  88  /  20  30  70  40  30
KINGSVILLE        88  77  86  77  85  /  20  30  70  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       84  79  83  78  82  /  20  30  70  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 241630
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1130 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH-RES GUIDANCE AND SATL/UPR AIR OBSERVATIONS ALL
INDICATE A MUCH DRIER DAY TDA. WITH THE LATEST S/WV ALREADY EAST
OF THE CWA...THIS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. AS A RESULT...CANCELLED
THE FFA FOR ALL OF THE CWA AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT
CHC FOR TDA. ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER OUT WEST WHERE THERE
WL BE MORE INSOLATION. WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUD CVR FURTHER
EAST AS THE HIGH CLOUD DECK WL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD.

THE NEXT FOCUS WL SHIFT TWDS MONDAY AS THE NEXT S/WV CURRENTLY
MOVING SWD ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA AFFECTS THE RGN. THIS SYSTEM WL
BE FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ONE EARLIER TDA. HOWEVER...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NRN AREAS WL BE ON THE SRN END
OF THE MAIN FORCING ASSCTD WITH THIS S/WV. SBCAPES ABV 4000 J/KG
AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR INDICATE A SVR THREAT FOR THE CWA ON
MONDAY.

MAY NEED A SMALL PORTION OF THE CWA IN A FFA FOR MONDAY...MAINLY
NORTHEASTERN AREAS. WL DECIDE IN THE AFTN PACKAGE ONE WAY OR THE
OTHER ON THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ESPECIALLY FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS WL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS OVER THE BAYS HAVE HAD A SLOW TIME RESPONDING TO THE
OVERALL GRADIENT DUE TO PRIOR STORMS. BUT THE OVERALL GRADIENT
SHOULD PUSH THE BAYS INTO LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BOTH TDA AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  77  84  77  84  /  20  30  70  50  40
VICTORIA          84  74  83  73  83  /  20  30  80  60  40
LAREDO            93  74  91  75  90  /  20  30  40  40  30
ALICE             88  75  86  76  86  /  20  30  70  50  30
ROCKPORT          83  78  82  77  82  /  20  30  70  60  40
COTULLA           90  73  88  72  88  /  20  30  70  40  30
KINGSVILLE        88  77  86  77  85  /  20  30  70  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       84  79  83  78  82  /  20  30  70  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

MB/80...SHORT TERM


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000
FXUS64 KEWX 241529
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1029 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR THE REST OF THE DAY IN THE UPDATE.
THIS IS BASED OFF OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING A MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORNING DRT SOUNDING SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP US DRIER TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

BECAUSE OF THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...STORMS...AND HEAVY
RAIN THREAT TODAY WE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS
MORNING. TOMORROW...MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AGAIN AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TEXAS. THE THREAT FOR BOTH SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING RETURNS. WILL EXAMINE THE THREATS WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE...AND WILL ALSO CONSIDER ISSUING ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IF ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY
TOMORROW. WITH HOW SATURATED OUR SOILS HAVE BEEN AND THE
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS FROM LAST NIGHT...WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS THAT REACHED 8-10 PLUS INCHES...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. THOSE VACATIONING FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE
READY TO TAKE SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING APPROACHES
TOMORROW.

RIVER FLOODING ALSO CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE ON SEVERAL RIVERS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SAN MARCOS RIVER...SAN ANTONIO RIVER...NUECES
RIVER...SABINAL RIVER...AND FRIO RIVER ALL HAVE PORTIONS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A FULL LISTING OF THE RIVERS IN FLOOD
CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB PAGE WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EWX AND VIEWING THE
AHPS PAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
RAINS ARE MOVING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED WEST TO SCATTERED EAST REDEVELOPMENT MIDDAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE FOCUS NOW TURNS TO A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORM EVENT ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SLOW MOVING MCS...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A
FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED IFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS POOR ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
WILL LEAVE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL MORE MODEL
DATA CAN ANALYZE THE POST STORM ENVIRONMENT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN SOILS AND LOW LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN QUICK SATURATION
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLIES IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP MOST CONDITIONS IN IFR OR
BETTER FOR MONDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND AN MCV BETWEEN
VICTORIA AND SAN ANTONIO ARE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG I-35 NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH
198 TO EXPIRE. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
FURTHER EAST. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT DUE TO DECREASED PWS
AND INCREASED STABILITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS ON MONDAY. AIRMASS RESETS AS PWS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES
WITH CAPES AND SHEAR INCREASING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ALLOWING FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  72  82  68  87 /  30  30  80  60  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  71  82  68  87 /  30  30  80  60  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  72  82  70  87 /  20  30  80  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  70  80  68  85 /  30  30  80  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  70  89  68  90 /  20  20  60  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  71  81  69  86 /  30  30  80  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  71  83  70  87 /  20  30  80  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  72  82  69  86 /  30  30  80  60  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  73  83  72  87 /  30  40  80  70  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  73  82  72  87 /  20  30  80  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  73  83  71  88 /  20  30  80  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33



000
FXUS64 KEWX 241529
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1029 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR THE REST OF THE DAY IN THE UPDATE.
THIS IS BASED OFF OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING A MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORNING DRT SOUNDING SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP US DRIER TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

BECAUSE OF THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...STORMS...AND HEAVY
RAIN THREAT TODAY WE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS
MORNING. TOMORROW...MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AGAIN AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TEXAS. THE THREAT FOR BOTH SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING RETURNS. WILL EXAMINE THE THREATS WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE...AND WILL ALSO CONSIDER ISSUING ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IF ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY
TOMORROW. WITH HOW SATURATED OUR SOILS HAVE BEEN AND THE
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS FROM LAST NIGHT...WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS THAT REACHED 8-10 PLUS INCHES...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. THOSE VACATIONING FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE
READY TO TAKE SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING APPROACHES
TOMORROW.

RIVER FLOODING ALSO CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE ON SEVERAL RIVERS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SAN MARCOS RIVER...SAN ANTONIO RIVER...NUECES
RIVER...SABINAL RIVER...AND FRIO RIVER ALL HAVE PORTIONS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A FULL LISTING OF THE RIVERS IN FLOOD
CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB PAGE WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EWX AND VIEWING THE
AHPS PAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
RAINS ARE MOVING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED WEST TO SCATTERED EAST REDEVELOPMENT MIDDAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE FOCUS NOW TURNS TO A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORM EVENT ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SLOW MOVING MCS...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A
FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED IFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS POOR ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
WILL LEAVE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL MORE MODEL
DATA CAN ANALYZE THE POST STORM ENVIRONMENT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN SOILS AND LOW LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN QUICK SATURATION
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLIES IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP MOST CONDITIONS IN IFR OR
BETTER FOR MONDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND AN MCV BETWEEN
VICTORIA AND SAN ANTONIO ARE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG I-35 NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH
198 TO EXPIRE. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
FURTHER EAST. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT DUE TO DECREASED PWS
AND INCREASED STABILITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS ON MONDAY. AIRMASS RESETS AS PWS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES
WITH CAPES AND SHEAR INCREASING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ALLOWING FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  72  82  68  87 /  30  30  80  60  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  71  82  68  87 /  30  30  80  60  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  72  82  70  87 /  20  30  80  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  70  80  68  85 /  30  30  80  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  70  89  68  90 /  20  20  60  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  71  81  69  86 /  30  30  80  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  71  83  70  87 /  20  30  80  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  72  82  69  86 /  30  30  80  60  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  73  83  72  87 /  30  40  80  70  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  73  82  72  87 /  20  30  80  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  73  83  71  88 /  20  30  80  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33



000
FXUS64 KEWX 241529
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1029 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR THE REST OF THE DAY IN THE UPDATE.
THIS IS BASED OFF OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING A MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORNING DRT SOUNDING SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP US DRIER TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

BECAUSE OF THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...STORMS...AND HEAVY
RAIN THREAT TODAY WE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS
MORNING. TOMORROW...MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AGAIN AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TEXAS. THE THREAT FOR BOTH SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING RETURNS. WILL EXAMINE THE THREATS WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE...AND WILL ALSO CONSIDER ISSUING ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IF ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY
TOMORROW. WITH HOW SATURATED OUR SOILS HAVE BEEN AND THE
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS FROM LAST NIGHT...WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS THAT REACHED 8-10 PLUS INCHES...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. THOSE VACATIONING FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE
READY TO TAKE SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING APPROACHES
TOMORROW.

RIVER FLOODING ALSO CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE ON SEVERAL RIVERS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SAN MARCOS RIVER...SAN ANTONIO RIVER...NUECES
RIVER...SABINAL RIVER...AND FRIO RIVER ALL HAVE PORTIONS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. A FULL LISTING OF THE RIVERS IN FLOOD
CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB PAGE WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EWX AND VIEWING THE
AHPS PAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
RAINS ARE MOVING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED WEST TO SCATTERED EAST REDEVELOPMENT MIDDAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE FOCUS NOW TURNS TO A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORM EVENT ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SLOW MOVING MCS...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A
FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED IFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS POOR ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
WILL LEAVE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL MORE MODEL
DATA CAN ANALYZE THE POST STORM ENVIRONMENT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN SOILS AND LOW LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN QUICK SATURATION
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLIES IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP MOST CONDITIONS IN IFR OR
BETTER FOR MONDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND AN MCV BETWEEN
VICTORIA AND SAN ANTONIO ARE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG I-35 NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH
198 TO EXPIRE. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
FURTHER EAST. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT DUE TO DECREASED PWS
AND INCREASED STABILITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS ON MONDAY. AIRMASS RESETS AS PWS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES
WITH CAPES AND SHEAR INCREASING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ALLOWING FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  72  82  68  87 /  30  30  80  60  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  71  82  68  87 /  30  30  80  60  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  72  82  70  87 /  20  30  80  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  70  80  68  85 /  30  30  80  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  70  89  68  90 /  20  20  60  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  71  81  69  86 /  30  30  80  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  71  83  70  87 /  20  30  80  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  72  82  69  86 /  30  30  80  60  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  73  83  72  87 /  30  40  80  70  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  73  82  72  87 /  20  30  80  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  73  83  71  88 /  20  30  80  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KSJT 241526
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1026 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated zones and grids to expire the flash flood watch and reduce
Pops to mainly chance for today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  40  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  30  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  30  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 241526
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1026 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated zones and grids to expire the flash flood watch and reduce
Pops to mainly chance for today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  40  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  30  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  30  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 241526
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1026 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated zones and grids to expire the flash flood watch and reduce
Pops to mainly chance for today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  40  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  30  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  30  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 241526
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1026 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated zones and grids to expire the flash flood watch and reduce
Pops to mainly chance for today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  40  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  30  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  30  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 241524
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1024 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
LARGE SQUALL LINE STRETCHES FROM EAST TEXAS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
GULF...ALMOST 200 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LINE...THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TODAY...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND NOT TOO
HEAVY. THIS FINAL WAVE OF FORCING IS WHAT HAS CAUSED THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
TODAY/S POPS HAVE BEEN REWORKED TO SHOW THE LATEST AND EXPECTED
TRENDS OVER THE 6-12 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT AS SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT
OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPS LIKELY REACHING THE LOW 80S. MEANWHILE SOME OF THE CLOUDY
AND RAINY AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOW 70S TODAY.

OTHERWISE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES...AND WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW EVENING AS INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

TR.92



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 656 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

TIMING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST 6 HRS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER KSJT CURRENTLY...WHILE
SEVERAL MESOSCALE...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICES WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS SE OK AND E TX OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. WIDESPREAD
SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING....BEFORE BETTER MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EAST AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL WILL ADVERTISE VCSH AT LEAST INTO
MID AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE CHANGED TO VCTS WITH CB/S
ON LATER FORECAST IF ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO HOLD AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.

BY MID MORNING...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL ADVERTISE A RETURN VFR CIGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BY MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...SOUTH WINDS
10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MOISTURE RICH OVER THE AREA.
WILL BEGIN MVFR CIGS BY 06Z...THEN AS WIND SPEEDS LOWER OVER WET
SOIL...HAVE CIGS DROPPING INTO IFR WITH MVFR VSBYS DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS MEMORIAL DAY.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT LEFT IT OUT OF THIS FORECAST.
BULK OF MONDAY/S CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HRS.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TORNADO WATCH 197 HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AN MCV...WHICH PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AS IT
LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE
RED RIVER IN A FEW HOURS...PROVIDING BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND AN
ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
DALLAS-FORT WORTH. A SECOND MCV CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PALESTINE AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO TORNADO WATCH 200 FOR A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 4
AM.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF OUR 2 MESOSCALE SYSTEMS IS
PROVIDING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND
APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. EITHER WAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS
WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSPIRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BEING KEPT ON THOSE DAYS DUE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  68  84  66  85 /  70  20  70  50  20
WACO, TX              78  69  80  67  86 /  40  30  80  50  20
PARIS, TX             74  67  82  65  82 /  90  40  80  70  20
DENTON, TX            76  66  84  66  84 /  70  20  60  50  20
MCKINNEY, TX          75  67  84  66  83 /  70  30  70  50  20
DALLAS, TX            76  68  85  66  85 /  70  20  70  50  20
TERRELL, TX           76  69  82  67  84 /  70  30  80  60  20
CORSICANA, TX         77  70  83  67  84 /  50  30  80  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            79  69  81  67  86 /  40  30  80  50  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  67  82  64  85 /  70  20  60  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 241524
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1024 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
LARGE SQUALL LINE STRETCHES FROM EAST TEXAS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
GULF...ALMOST 200 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LINE...THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TODAY...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND NOT TOO
HEAVY. THIS FINAL WAVE OF FORCING IS WHAT HAS CAUSED THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
TODAY/S POPS HAVE BEEN REWORKED TO SHOW THE LATEST AND EXPECTED
TRENDS OVER THE 6-12 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT AS SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT
OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPS LIKELY REACHING THE LOW 80S. MEANWHILE SOME OF THE CLOUDY
AND RAINY AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOW 70S TODAY.

OTHERWISE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES...AND WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW EVENING AS INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

TR.92



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 656 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

TIMING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST 6 HRS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER KSJT CURRENTLY...WHILE
SEVERAL MESOSCALE...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICES WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS SE OK AND E TX OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. WIDESPREAD
SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING....BEFORE BETTER MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EAST AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL WILL ADVERTISE VCSH AT LEAST INTO
MID AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE CHANGED TO VCTS WITH CB/S
ON LATER FORECAST IF ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO HOLD AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.

BY MID MORNING...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL ADVERTISE A RETURN VFR CIGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BY MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...SOUTH WINDS
10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MOISTURE RICH OVER THE AREA.
WILL BEGIN MVFR CIGS BY 06Z...THEN AS WIND SPEEDS LOWER OVER WET
SOIL...HAVE CIGS DROPPING INTO IFR WITH MVFR VSBYS DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS MEMORIAL DAY.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT LEFT IT OUT OF THIS FORECAST.
BULK OF MONDAY/S CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HRS.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TORNADO WATCH 197 HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AN MCV...WHICH PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AS IT
LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE
RED RIVER IN A FEW HOURS...PROVIDING BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND AN
ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
DALLAS-FORT WORTH. A SECOND MCV CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PALESTINE AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO TORNADO WATCH 200 FOR A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 4
AM.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF OUR 2 MESOSCALE SYSTEMS IS
PROVIDING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND
APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. EITHER WAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS
WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSPIRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BEING KEPT ON THOSE DAYS DUE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  68  84  66  85 /  70  20  70  50  20
WACO, TX              78  69  80  67  86 /  40  30  80  50  20
PARIS, TX             74  67  82  65  82 /  90  40  80  70  20
DENTON, TX            76  66  84  66  84 /  70  20  60  50  20
MCKINNEY, TX          75  67  84  66  83 /  70  30  70  50  20
DALLAS, TX            76  68  85  66  85 /  70  20  70  50  20
TERRELL, TX           76  69  82  67  84 /  70  30  80  60  20
CORSICANA, TX         77  70  83  67  84 /  50  30  80  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            79  69  81  67  86 /  40  30  80  50  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  67  82  64  85 /  70  20  60  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 241524
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1024 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
LARGE SQUALL LINE STRETCHES FROM EAST TEXAS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
GULF...ALMOST 200 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LINE...THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TODAY...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND NOT TOO
HEAVY. THIS FINAL WAVE OF FORCING IS WHAT HAS CAUSED THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
TODAY/S POPS HAVE BEEN REWORKED TO SHOW THE LATEST AND EXPECTED
TRENDS OVER THE 6-12 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT AS SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT
OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPS LIKELY REACHING THE LOW 80S. MEANWHILE SOME OF THE CLOUDY
AND RAINY AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOW 70S TODAY.

OTHERWISE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES...AND WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW EVENING AS INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

TR.92



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 656 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

TIMING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST 6 HRS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER KSJT CURRENTLY...WHILE
SEVERAL MESOSCALE...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICES WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS SE OK AND E TX OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. WIDESPREAD
SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING....BEFORE BETTER MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EAST AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL WILL ADVERTISE VCSH AT LEAST INTO
MID AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE CHANGED TO VCTS WITH CB/S
ON LATER FORECAST IF ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO HOLD AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.

BY MID MORNING...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL ADVERTISE A RETURN VFR CIGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BY MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...SOUTH WINDS
10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MOISTURE RICH OVER THE AREA.
WILL BEGIN MVFR CIGS BY 06Z...THEN AS WIND SPEEDS LOWER OVER WET
SOIL...HAVE CIGS DROPPING INTO IFR WITH MVFR VSBYS DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS MEMORIAL DAY.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT LEFT IT OUT OF THIS FORECAST.
BULK OF MONDAY/S CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HRS.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TORNADO WATCH 197 HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AN MCV...WHICH PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AS IT
LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE
RED RIVER IN A FEW HOURS...PROVIDING BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND AN
ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
DALLAS-FORT WORTH. A SECOND MCV CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PALESTINE AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO TORNADO WATCH 200 FOR A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 4
AM.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF OUR 2 MESOSCALE SYSTEMS IS
PROVIDING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND
APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. EITHER WAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS
WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSPIRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BEING KEPT ON THOSE DAYS DUE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  68  84  66  85 /  70  20  70  50  20
WACO, TX              78  69  80  67  86 /  40  30  80  50  20
PARIS, TX             74  67  82  65  82 /  90  40  80  70  20
DENTON, TX            76  66  84  66  84 /  70  20  60  50  20
MCKINNEY, TX          75  67  84  66  83 /  70  30  70  50  20
DALLAS, TX            76  68  85  66  85 /  70  20  70  50  20
TERRELL, TX           76  69  82  67  84 /  70  30  80  60  20
CORSICANA, TX         77  70  83  67  84 /  50  30  80  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            79  69  81  67  86 /  40  30  80  50  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  67  82  64  85 /  70  20  60  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 241524
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1024 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
LARGE SQUALL LINE STRETCHES FROM EAST TEXAS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
GULF...ALMOST 200 MILES SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LINE...THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN STABILIZED SOMEWHAT OVER THE REGION.
THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH STRONG FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TODAY...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND NOT TOO
HEAVY. THIS FINAL WAVE OF FORCING IS WHAT HAS CAUSED THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.
TODAY/S POPS HAVE BEEN REWORKED TO SHOW THE LATEST AND EXPECTED
TRENDS OVER THE 6-12 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT AS SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT
OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPS LIKELY REACHING THE LOW 80S. MEANWHILE SOME OF THE CLOUDY
AND RAINY AREAS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOW 70S TODAY.

OTHERWISE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES...AND WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW EVENING AS INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

TR.92



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 656 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
/12Z TAFS/

TIMING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST 6 HRS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER KSJT CURRENTLY...WHILE
SEVERAL MESOSCALE...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICES WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS SE OK AND E TX OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. WIDESPREAD
SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING....BEFORE BETTER MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EAST AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL WILL ADVERTISE VCSH AT LEAST INTO
MID AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE CHANGED TO VCTS WITH CB/S
ON LATER FORECAST IF ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO HOLD AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.

BY MID MORNING...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL ADVERTISE A RETURN VFR CIGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BY MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...SOUTH WINDS
10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MOISTURE RICH OVER THE AREA.
WILL BEGIN MVFR CIGS BY 06Z...THEN AS WIND SPEEDS LOWER OVER WET
SOIL...HAVE CIGS DROPPING INTO IFR WITH MVFR VSBYS DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS MEMORIAL DAY.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT LEFT IT OUT OF THIS FORECAST.
BULK OF MONDAY/S CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HRS.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TORNADO WATCH 197 HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AN MCV...WHICH PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AS IT
LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE
RED RIVER IN A FEW HOURS...PROVIDING BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND AN
ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
DALLAS-FORT WORTH. A SECOND MCV CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PALESTINE AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO TORNADO WATCH 200 FOR A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 4
AM.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF OUR 2 MESOSCALE SYSTEMS IS
PROVIDING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND
APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. EITHER WAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS
WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSPIRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BEING KEPT ON THOSE DAYS DUE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  68  84  66  85 /  70  20  70  50  20
WACO, TX              78  69  80  67  86 /  40  30  80  50  20
PARIS, TX             74  67  82  65  82 /  90  40  80  70  20
DENTON, TX            76  66  84  66  84 /  70  20  60  50  20
MCKINNEY, TX          75  67  84  66  83 /  70  30  70  50  20
DALLAS, TX            76  68  85  66  85 /  70  20  70  50  20
TERRELL, TX           76  69  82  67  84 /  70  30  80  60  20
CORSICANA, TX         77  70  83  67  84 /  50  30  80  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            79  69  81  67  86 /  40  30  80  50  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  67  82  64  85 /  70  20  60  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 241510
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1010 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP IS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE
CANCELLED FFA FOR MOST OF REGION AND WILL EXPIRE EXTREME SE
COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS RAIN TAPERS OFF THERE. DO THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME MORE SCT DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAT INTO THE LOWER
80S LATER THIS AFTN. LARGE COMPLEX IN NW GULF WILL HAMPER INFLOW
IN THE SHORT TERM. COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT THINK OVERALL FF THREAT IS LOW IN THE
SHORT TERM. WILL RE-EVALUATE THINGS LATER THIS AFTN FOR THE
EXPECTED NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  73  82  72  86 /  50  50 100  70  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  74  82  75  85 /  40  50  90  70  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  78  83  77  84 /  90  50  80  70  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...LIBERTY.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 241510
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1010 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP IS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE
CANCELLED FFA FOR MOST OF REGION AND WILL EXPIRE EXTREME SE
COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS RAIN TAPERS OFF THERE. DO THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME MORE SCT DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAT INTO THE LOWER
80S LATER THIS AFTN. LARGE COMPLEX IN NW GULF WILL HAMPER INFLOW
IN THE SHORT TERM. COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT THINK OVERALL FF THREAT IS LOW IN THE
SHORT TERM. WILL RE-EVALUATE THINGS LATER THIS AFTN FOR THE
EXPECTED NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  73  82  72  86 /  50  50 100  70  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  74  82  75  85 /  40  50  90  70  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  78  83  77  84 /  90  50  80  70  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...LIBERTY.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLUB 241231
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
731 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING KCDS WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THIS MIX OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO...RESTORING AIRPORT OPERATIONS BY 13-14Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AFTER THIS UNTIL AROUND MID-LATE MORNING WHEN
VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RESTORE VFR CONDITIONS. KLBB AND
KPVW WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IFR CEILINGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LIFT THESE TO
MVFR AND VFR BY MID MORNING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AT
KCDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT IMPACT AT TERMINAL REMAINS TOO UNLIKELY FOR
MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOME LOWER CLOUDS/POTENTIAL CEILINGS MAY
TRY TO MOVE BACK TOWARD KCDS OVERNIGHT...BUT DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN FROM THE WEST LOOKS TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY LOW FOR THE TIME
BEING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE BIG BEND INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU CONTINUES TO DRIVE A PLETHORA OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH A WELL DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX IN BETWEEN THE METROPLEX AND SHERMAN. HAVE SEEN SOME TRAILING
SHOWERS/STORMS GET GOING BETWEEN PECOS AND BIG SPRING WHICH COULD
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECTING THESE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME BLOSSOMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
MUCH STRONGER SHIELD OF ACTIVITY EAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON...BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/KANSAS...WILL LIKELY
KEEP MOST AREAS DRY AS A SURFACE LOW ALSO NUDGES EASTWARD FROM THE
FRONT RANGE TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS THUS MIXING THE DRYLINE NEAR OR
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WET SOILS AND FALLING PRESSURES IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO MAY ATTEMPT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD ULTIMATELY WIN OUT BY MID AFTERNOON AND PEAK HEATING.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. LOCALES
IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE/NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE
HELPED BY ANY MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS NEARER THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW...BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO BE THE OVERALL RULE
FOR WEST TEXAS. NONETHELESS...ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND NO CAP TO FIGHT AGAINST AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL DEVELOP OWING TO QUITE COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S-MID 80S.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT GIVEN 30-40 KNOTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD THEN ENSUE AS VEERING SURFACE WINDS
LIKELY KEEP LOW STRATUS/FOG EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
TRANS-PECOS...BUT ANY IMPACT IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MEMORIAL DAY PENDING MOISTURE
RETURN.

LONG TERM...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY
LEAVING US ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE FEATURE BY THE TIME THE
AFTERNOON ROLLS AROUND. AFTER PASSAGE...THOUGH NEAR ZONAL IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED THUS KEEPING THINGS FROM MAKING THE FCST TOO SIMPLE. INTO
THURSDAY...TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RETURN
OF SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES TO BE A HARBINGER OF ACTIVE
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS A BIT
MUDDIED UNTIL RIDGING OUT WEST FINALLY LOOKS TO START INTO THE
PICTURE NEXT WEEKEND. AS AN ASIDE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SPIN UP
A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC AROUND 1 JUNE.

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PAINTS A DRY PICTURE FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE DRYLINE LIGHTING UP ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING EAST DURING THE EVENING. TUESDAY APPEARS TO
BE A DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION THOUGH NWP INDICATES DETERMINISTIC
PRECIPITATION NOISE THOUGH NO CLEAR SIGNAL EXIST. THUS...WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THEREAFTER...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  48  76  50 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         80  50  74  51 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     80  51  75  53 /  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     81  51  80  54 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       82  53  80  55 /  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   81  52  80  54 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    83  52  81  55 /  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     79  57  80  57 /  30  20  20  20
SPUR          82  55  77  54 /  30  10  30  20
ASPERMONT     84  58  79  58 /  30  10  50  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 241231
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
731 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING KCDS WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THIS MIX OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO...RESTORING AIRPORT OPERATIONS BY 13-14Z. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AFTER THIS UNTIL AROUND MID-LATE MORNING WHEN
VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RESTORE VFR CONDITIONS. KLBB AND
KPVW WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IFR CEILINGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LIFT THESE TO
MVFR AND VFR BY MID MORNING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AT
KCDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT IMPACT AT TERMINAL REMAINS TOO UNLIKELY FOR
MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOME LOWER CLOUDS/POTENTIAL CEILINGS MAY
TRY TO MOVE BACK TOWARD KCDS OVERNIGHT...BUT DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN FROM THE WEST LOOKS TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY LOW FOR THE TIME
BEING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE BIG BEND INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU CONTINUES TO DRIVE A PLETHORA OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH A WELL DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX IN BETWEEN THE METROPLEX AND SHERMAN. HAVE SEEN SOME TRAILING
SHOWERS/STORMS GET GOING BETWEEN PECOS AND BIG SPRING WHICH COULD
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECTING THESE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME BLOSSOMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
MUCH STRONGER SHIELD OF ACTIVITY EAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON...BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/KANSAS...WILL LIKELY
KEEP MOST AREAS DRY AS A SURFACE LOW ALSO NUDGES EASTWARD FROM THE
FRONT RANGE TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS THUS MIXING THE DRYLINE NEAR OR
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WET SOILS AND FALLING PRESSURES IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO MAY ATTEMPT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD ULTIMATELY WIN OUT BY MID AFTERNOON AND PEAK HEATING.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. LOCALES
IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE/NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE
HELPED BY ANY MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS NEARER THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW...BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO BE THE OVERALL RULE
FOR WEST TEXAS. NONETHELESS...ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND NO CAP TO FIGHT AGAINST AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL DEVELOP OWING TO QUITE COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S-MID 80S.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT GIVEN 30-40 KNOTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD THEN ENSUE AS VEERING SURFACE WINDS
LIKELY KEEP LOW STRATUS/FOG EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
TRANS-PECOS...BUT ANY IMPACT IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MEMORIAL DAY PENDING MOISTURE
RETURN.

LONG TERM...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY
LEAVING US ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE FEATURE BY THE TIME THE
AFTERNOON ROLLS AROUND. AFTER PASSAGE...THOUGH NEAR ZONAL IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED THUS KEEPING THINGS FROM MAKING THE FCST TOO SIMPLE. INTO
THURSDAY...TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RETURN
OF SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES TO BE A HARBINGER OF ACTIVE
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS A BIT
MUDDIED UNTIL RIDGING OUT WEST FINALLY LOOKS TO START INTO THE
PICTURE NEXT WEEKEND. AS AN ASIDE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SPIN UP
A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC AROUND 1 JUNE.

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PAINTS A DRY PICTURE FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE DRYLINE LIGHTING UP ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING EAST DURING THE EVENING. TUESDAY APPEARS TO
BE A DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION THOUGH NWP INDICATES DETERMINISTIC
PRECIPITATION NOISE THOUGH NO CLEAR SIGNAL EXIST. THUS...WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THEREAFTER...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  48  76  50 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         80  50  74  51 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     80  51  75  53 /  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     81  51  80  54 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       82  53  80  55 /  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   81  52  80  54 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    83  52  81  55 /  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     79  57  80  57 /  30  20  20  20
SPUR          82  55  77  54 /  30  10  30  20
ASPERMONT     84  58  79  58 /  30  10  50  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31






000
FXUS64 KLUB 241227
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
727 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING KCDS WITH MOIST

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THIS MIX OUT IN

THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...RESTORING AIRPORT OPERATIONS BY 13-14Z. MVFR/IFR

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AFTER THIS UNTIL AROUND MID-LATE

MORNING WHEN VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RESTORE VFR

CONDITIONS. KLBB AND KPVW WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IFR CEILINGS FOR A

SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY

WINDS LIFT THESE TO MVFR AND VFR BY MID MORNING. CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AT KCDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT

COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH THAT IMPACT AT TERMINAL REMAINS

TOO UNLIKELY FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOME LOWER CLOUDS/POTENTIAL

CEILINGS MAY TRY TO MOVE BACK TOWARD KCDS OVERNIGHT...BUT DRIER

AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST LOOKS TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY LOW

FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE BIG BEND INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU CONTINUES TO DRIVE A PLETHORA OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH A WELL DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX IN BETWEEN THE METROPLEX AND SHERMAN. HAVE SEEN SOME TRAILING
SHOWERS/STORMS GET GOING BETWEEN PECOS AND BIG SPRING WHICH COULD
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECTING THESE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME BLOSSOMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
MUCH STRONGER SHIELD OF ACTIVITY EAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON...BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/KANSAS...WILL LIKELY
KEEP MOST AREAS DRY AS A SURFACE LOW ALSO NUDGES EASTWARD FROM THE
FRONT RANGE TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS THUS MIXING THE DRYLINE NEAR OR
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WET SOILS AND FALLING PRESSURES IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO MAY ATTEMPT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD ULTIMATELY WIN OUT BY MID AFTERNOON AND PEAK HEATING.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. LOCALES
IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE/NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE
HELPED BY ANY MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS NEARER THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW...BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO BE THE OVERALL RULE
FOR WEST TEXAS. NONETHELESS...ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND NO CAP TO FIGHT AGAINST AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL DEVELOP OWING TO QUITE COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S-MID 80S.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT GIVEN 30-40 KNOTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD THEN ENSUE AS VEERING SURFACE WINDS
LIKELY KEEP LOW STRATUS/FOG EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
TRANS-PECOS...BUT ANY IMPACT IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MEMORIAL DAY PENDING MOISTURE
RETURN.

LONG TERM...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY
LEAVING US ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE FEATURE BY THE TIME THE
AFTERNOON ROLLS AROUND. AFTER PASSAGE...THOUGH NEAR ZONAL IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED THUS KEEPING THINGS FROM MAKING THE FCST TOO SIMPLE. INTO
THURSDAY...TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RETURN
OF SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES TO BE A HARBINGER OF ACTIVE
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS A BIT
MUDDIED UNTIL RIDGING OUT WEST FINALLY LOOKS TO START INTO THE
PICTURE NEXT WEEKEND. AS AN ASIDE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SPIN UP
A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC AROUND 1 JUNE.

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PAINTS A DRY PICTURE FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE DRYLINE LIGHTING UP ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING EAST DURING THE EVENING. TUESDAY APPEARS TO
BE A DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION THOUGH NWP INDICATES DETERMINISTIC
PRECIPITATION NOISE THOUGH NO CLEAR SIGNAL EXIST. THUS...WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THEREAFTER...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  48  76  50 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         80  50  74  51 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     80  51  75  53 /  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     81  51  80  54 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       82  53  80  55 /  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   81  52  80  54 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    83  52  81  55 /  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     79  57  80  57 /  30  20  20  20
SPUR          82  55  77  54 /  30  10  30  20
ASPERMONT     84  58  79  58 /  30  10  50  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 241227
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
727 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
LOCALLY DENSE FOG CURRENTLY IMPACTING KCDS WITH MOIST

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THIS MIX OUT IN

THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...RESTORING AIRPORT OPERATIONS BY 13-14Z. MVFR/IFR

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AFTER THIS UNTIL AROUND MID-LATE

MORNING WHEN VEERING SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RESTORE VFR

CONDITIONS. KLBB AND KPVW WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IFR CEILINGS FOR A

SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY

WINDS LIFT THESE TO MVFR AND VFR BY MID MORNING. CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AT KCDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT

COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH THAT IMPACT AT TERMINAL REMAINS

TOO UNLIKELY FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOME LOWER CLOUDS/POTENTIAL

CEILINGS MAY TRY TO MOVE BACK TOWARD KCDS OVERNIGHT...BUT DRIER

AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST LOOKS TO KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY LOW

FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE BIG BEND INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU CONTINUES TO DRIVE A PLETHORA OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH A WELL DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX IN BETWEEN THE METROPLEX AND SHERMAN. HAVE SEEN SOME TRAILING
SHOWERS/STORMS GET GOING BETWEEN PECOS AND BIG SPRING WHICH COULD
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECTING THESE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME BLOSSOMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
MUCH STRONGER SHIELD OF ACTIVITY EAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON...BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/KANSAS...WILL LIKELY
KEEP MOST AREAS DRY AS A SURFACE LOW ALSO NUDGES EASTWARD FROM THE
FRONT RANGE TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS THUS MIXING THE DRYLINE NEAR OR
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WET SOILS AND FALLING PRESSURES IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO MAY ATTEMPT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD ULTIMATELY WIN OUT BY MID AFTERNOON AND PEAK HEATING.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. LOCALES
IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE/NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE
HELPED BY ANY MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS NEARER THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW...BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO BE THE OVERALL RULE
FOR WEST TEXAS. NONETHELESS...ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND NO CAP TO FIGHT AGAINST AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL DEVELOP OWING TO QUITE COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S-MID 80S.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT GIVEN 30-40 KNOTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD THEN ENSUE AS VEERING SURFACE WINDS
LIKELY KEEP LOW STRATUS/FOG EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
TRANS-PECOS...BUT ANY IMPACT IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MEMORIAL DAY PENDING MOISTURE
RETURN.

LONG TERM...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY
LEAVING US ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE FEATURE BY THE TIME THE
AFTERNOON ROLLS AROUND. AFTER PASSAGE...THOUGH NEAR ZONAL IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED THUS KEEPING THINGS FROM MAKING THE FCST TOO SIMPLE. INTO
THURSDAY...TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RETURN
OF SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES TO BE A HARBINGER OF ACTIVE
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS A BIT
MUDDIED UNTIL RIDGING OUT WEST FINALLY LOOKS TO START INTO THE
PICTURE NEXT WEEKEND. AS AN ASIDE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SPIN UP
A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC AROUND 1 JUNE.

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PAINTS A DRY PICTURE FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE DRYLINE LIGHTING UP ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING EAST DURING THE EVENING. TUESDAY APPEARS TO
BE A DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION THOUGH NWP INDICATES DETERMINISTIC
PRECIPITATION NOISE THOUGH NO CLEAR SIGNAL EXIST. THUS...WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THEREAFTER...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  48  76  50 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         80  50  74  51 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     80  51  75  53 /  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     81  51  80  54 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       82  53  80  55 /  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   81  52  80  54 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    83  52  81  55 /  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     79  57  80  57 /  30  20  20  20
SPUR          82  55  77  54 /  30  10  30  20
ASPERMONT     84  58  79  58 /  30  10  50  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31






000
FXUS64 KFWD 241156
AFDFWD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
656 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

TIMING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST 6 HRS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER KSJT CURRENTLY...WHILE
SEVERAL MESOSCALE...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICES WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS SE OK AND E TX OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. WIDESPREAD
SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING....BEFORE BETTER MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EAST AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL WILL ADVERTISE VCSH AT LEAST INTO
MID AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE CHANGED TO VCTS WITH CB/S
ON LATER FORECAST IF ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO HOLD AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.

BY MID MORNING...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL ADVERTISE A RETURN VFR CIGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BY MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...SOUTH WINDS
10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MOISTURE RICH OVER THE AREA.
WILL BEGIN MVFR CIGS BY 06Z...THEN AS WIND SPEEDS LOWER OVER WET
SOIL...HAVE CIGS DROPPING INTO IFR WITH MVFR VSBYS DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS MEMORIAL DAY.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT LEFT IT OUT OF THIS FORECAST.
BULK OF MONDAY/S CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HRS.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TORNADO WATCH 197 HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AN MCV...WHICH PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AS IT
LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE
RED RIVER IN A FEW HOURS...PROVIDING BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND AN
ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
DALLAS-FORT WORTH. A SECOND MCV CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PALESTINE AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO TORNADO WATCH 200 FOR A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 4
AM.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF OUR 2 MESOSCALE SYSTEMS IS
PROVIDING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND
APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. EITHER WAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS
WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSPIRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BEING KEPT ON THOSE DAYS DUE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  68  84  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
WACO, TX              79  69  80  67  86 /  80  40  60  40  20
PARIS, TX             75  67  82  65  82 /  90  50  60  50  20
DENTON, TX            77  66  84  66  84 /  80  40  50  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  67  84  66  83 /  80  50  60  50  20
DALLAS, TX            79  68  85  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
TERRELL, TX           78  69  82  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
CORSICANA, TX         78  70  83  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            79  69  81  67  86 /  70  30  60  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  67  82  64  85 /  60  30  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

05/30





000
FXUS64 KFWD 241156 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
656 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

TIMING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST 6 HRS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER KSJT CURRENTLY...WHILE
SEVERAL MESOSCALE...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICES WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS SE OK AND E TX OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. WIDESPREAD
SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING....BEFORE BETTER MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EAST AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL WILL ADVERTISE VCSH AT LEAST INTO
MID AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE CHANGED TO VCTS WITH CB/S
ON LATER FORECAST IF ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO HOLD AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.

BY MID MORNING...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL ADVERTISE A RETURN VFR CIGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BY MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...SOUTH WINDS
10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MOISTURE RICH OVER THE AREA.
WILL BEGIN MVFR CIGS BY 06Z...THEN AS WIND SPEEDS LOWER OVER WET
SOIL...HAVE CIGS DROPPING INTO IFR WITH MVFR VSBYS DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS MEMORIAL DAY.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT LEFT IT OUT OF THIS FORECAST.
BULK OF MONDAY/S CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HRS.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TORNADO WATCH 197 HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AN MCV...WHICH PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AS IT
LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE
RED RIVER IN A FEW HOURS...PROVIDING BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND AN
ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
DALLAS-FORT WORTH. A SECOND MCV CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PALESTINE AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO TORNADO WATCH 200 FOR A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 4
AM.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF OUR 2 MESOSCALE SYSTEMS IS
PROVIDING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND
APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. EITHER WAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS
WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSPIRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BEING KEPT ON THOSE DAYS DUE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  68  84  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
WACO, TX              79  69  80  67  86 /  80  40  60  40  20
PARIS, TX             75  67  82  65  82 /  90  50  60  50  20
DENTON, TX            77  66  84  66  84 /  80  40  50  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  67  84  66  83 /  80  50  60  50  20
DALLAS, TX            79  68  85  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
TERRELL, TX           78  69  82  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
CORSICANA, TX         78  70  83  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            79  69  81  67  86 /  70  30  60  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  67  82  64  85 /  60  30  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

05/30



000
FXUS64 KFWD 241156 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
656 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

TIMING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST 6 HRS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER KSJT CURRENTLY...WHILE
SEVERAL MESOSCALE...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICES WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS SE OK AND E TX OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. WIDESPREAD
SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING....BEFORE BETTER MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EAST AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL WILL ADVERTISE VCSH AT LEAST INTO
MID AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE CHANGED TO VCTS WITH CB/S
ON LATER FORECAST IF ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO HOLD AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.

BY MID MORNING...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL ADVERTISE A RETURN VFR CIGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BY MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...SOUTH WINDS
10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MOISTURE RICH OVER THE AREA.
WILL BEGIN MVFR CIGS BY 06Z...THEN AS WIND SPEEDS LOWER OVER WET
SOIL...HAVE CIGS DROPPING INTO IFR WITH MVFR VSBYS DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS MEMORIAL DAY.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT LEFT IT OUT OF THIS FORECAST.
BULK OF MONDAY/S CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HRS.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TORNADO WATCH 197 HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AN MCV...WHICH PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AS IT
LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE
RED RIVER IN A FEW HOURS...PROVIDING BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND AN
ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
DALLAS-FORT WORTH. A SECOND MCV CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PALESTINE AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO TORNADO WATCH 200 FOR A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 4
AM.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF OUR 2 MESOSCALE SYSTEMS IS
PROVIDING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND
APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. EITHER WAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS
WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSPIRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BEING KEPT ON THOSE DAYS DUE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  68  84  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
WACO, TX              79  69  80  67  86 /  80  40  60  40  20
PARIS, TX             75  67  82  65  82 /  90  50  60  50  20
DENTON, TX            77  66  84  66  84 /  80  40  50  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  67  84  66  83 /  80  50  60  50  20
DALLAS, TX            79  68  85  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
TERRELL, TX           78  69  82  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
CORSICANA, TX         78  70  83  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            79  69  81  67  86 /  70  30  60  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  67  82  64  85 /  60  30  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

05/30




000
FXUS64 KFWD 241156
AFDFWD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
656 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

TIMING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST 6 HRS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST OVER KSJT CURRENTLY...WHILE
SEVERAL MESOSCALE...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICES WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS SE OK AND E TX OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. WIDESPREAD
SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID MORNING....BEFORE BETTER MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EAST AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL WILL ADVERTISE VCSH AT LEAST INTO
MID AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE CHANGED TO VCTS WITH CB/S
ON LATER FORECAST IF ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO HOLD AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.

BY MID MORNING...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS.
WILL ADVERTISE A RETURN VFR CIGS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BY MIDNIGHT AND AFTER...SOUTH WINDS
10-15 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MOISTURE RICH OVER THE AREA.
WILL BEGIN MVFR CIGS BY 06Z...THEN AS WIND SPEEDS LOWER OVER WET
SOIL...HAVE CIGS DROPPING INTO IFR WITH MVFR VSBYS DURING THE
PREDAWN HRS MEMORIAL DAY.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT LEFT IT OUT OF THIS FORECAST.
BULK OF MONDAY/S CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HRS.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TORNADO WATCH 197 HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AN MCV...WHICH PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AS IT
LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE
RED RIVER IN A FEW HOURS...PROVIDING BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND AN
ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
DALLAS-FORT WORTH. A SECOND MCV CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PALESTINE AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO TORNADO WATCH 200 FOR A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 4
AM.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF OUR 2 MESOSCALE SYSTEMS IS
PROVIDING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND
APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. EITHER WAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS
WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSPIRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BEING KEPT ON THOSE DAYS DUE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  68  84  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
WACO, TX              79  69  80  67  86 /  80  40  60  40  20
PARIS, TX             75  67  82  65  82 /  90  50  60  50  20
DENTON, TX            77  66  84  66  84 /  80  40  50  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  67  84  66  83 /  80  50  60  50  20
DALLAS, TX            79  68  85  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
TERRELL, TX           78  69  82  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
CORSICANA, TX         78  70  83  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            79  69  81  67  86 /  70  30  60  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  67  82  64  85 /  60  30  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

05/30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 241154
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
654 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
RAINS ARE MOVING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED WEST TO SCATTERED EAST REDEVELOPMENT MIDDAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE FOCUS NOW TURNS TO A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORM EVENT ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SLOW MOVING MCS...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A
FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED IFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS POOR ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
WILL LEAVE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL MORE MODEL
DATA CAN ANALYZE THE POST STORM ENVIRONMENT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN SOILS AND LOW LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN QUICK SATURATION
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLIES IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP MOST CONDITIONS IN IFR OR
BETTER FOR MONDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND AN MCV BETWEEN
VICTORIA AND SAN ANTONIO ARE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG I-35 NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH
198 TO EXPIRE. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
FURTHER EAST. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT DUE TO DECREASED PWS
AND INCREASED STABILITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS ON MONDAY. AIRMASS RESETS AS PWS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES
WITH CAPES AND SHEAR INCREASING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ALLOWING FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  72  82  68  87 /  30  30  80  60  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  71  82  68  87 /  30  30  80  60  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  72  82  70  87 /  30  30  80  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  70  80  68  85 /  30  30  80  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  70  89  68  90 /  20  20  60  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  71  81  69  86 /  30  30  80  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  71  83  70  87 /  20  30  80  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  72  82  69  86 /  30  30  80  60  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  73  83  72  87 /  30  40  80  70  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  73  82  72  87 /  30  30  80  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  73  83  71  88 /  30  30  80  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 241154
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
654 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
RAINS ARE MOVING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED WEST TO SCATTERED EAST REDEVELOPMENT MIDDAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE FOCUS NOW TURNS TO A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORM EVENT ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SLOW MOVING MCS...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A
FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED IFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS POOR ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
WILL LEAVE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL MORE MODEL
DATA CAN ANALYZE THE POST STORM ENVIRONMENT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN SOILS AND LOW LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN QUICK SATURATION
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLIES IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP MOST CONDITIONS IN IFR OR
BETTER FOR MONDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND AN MCV BETWEEN
VICTORIA AND SAN ANTONIO ARE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG I-35 NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH
198 TO EXPIRE. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
FURTHER EAST. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT DUE TO DECREASED PWS
AND INCREASED STABILITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS ON MONDAY. AIRMASS RESETS AS PWS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES
WITH CAPES AND SHEAR INCREASING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ALLOWING FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  72  82  68  87 /  30  30  80  60  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  71  82  68  87 /  30  30  80  60  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  72  82  70  87 /  30  30  80  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  70  80  68  85 /  30  30  80  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  70  89  68  90 /  20  20  60  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  71  81  69  86 /  30  30  80  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  71  83  70  87 /  20  30  80  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  72  82  69  86 /  30  30  80  60  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  73  83  72  87 /  30  40  80  70  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  73  82  72  87 /  30  30  80  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  73  83  71  88 /  30  30  80  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 241154
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
654 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
RAINS ARE MOVING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED WEST TO SCATTERED EAST REDEVELOPMENT MIDDAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE FOCUS NOW TURNS TO A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORM EVENT ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SLOW MOVING MCS...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A
FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED IFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS POOR ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
WILL LEAVE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL MORE MODEL
DATA CAN ANALYZE THE POST STORM ENVIRONMENT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN SOILS AND LOW LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN QUICK SATURATION
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLIES IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP MOST CONDITIONS IN IFR OR
BETTER FOR MONDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND AN MCV BETWEEN
VICTORIA AND SAN ANTONIO ARE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG I-35 NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH
198 TO EXPIRE. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
FURTHER EAST. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT DUE TO DECREASED PWS
AND INCREASED STABILITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS ON MONDAY. AIRMASS RESETS AS PWS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES
WITH CAPES AND SHEAR INCREASING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ALLOWING FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  72  82  68  87 /  30  30  80  60  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  71  82  68  87 /  30  30  80  60  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  72  82  70  87 /  30  30  80  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  70  80  68  85 /  30  30  80  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  70  89  68  90 /  20  20  60  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  71  81  69  86 /  30  30  80  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  71  83  70  87 /  20  30  80  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  72  82  69  86 /  30  30  80  60  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  73  83  72  87 /  30  40  80  70  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  73  82  72  87 /  30  30  80  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  73  83  71  88 /  30  30  80  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 241154
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
654 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
RAINS ARE MOVING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED WEST TO SCATTERED EAST REDEVELOPMENT MIDDAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE FOCUS NOW TURNS TO A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORM EVENT ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SLOW MOVING MCS...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A
FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED IFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS POOR ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
WILL LEAVE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL MORE MODEL
DATA CAN ANALYZE THE POST STORM ENVIRONMENT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN SOILS AND LOW LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN QUICK SATURATION
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLIES IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP MOST CONDITIONS IN IFR OR
BETTER FOR MONDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND AN MCV BETWEEN
VICTORIA AND SAN ANTONIO ARE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG I-35 NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH
198 TO EXPIRE. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
FURTHER EAST. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT DUE TO DECREASED PWS
AND INCREASED STABILITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS ON MONDAY. AIRMASS RESETS AS PWS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES
WITH CAPES AND SHEAR INCREASING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ALLOWING FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  72  82  68  87 /  30  30  80  60  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  71  82  68  87 /  30  30  80  60  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  72  82  70  87 /  30  30  80  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  70  80  68  85 /  30  30  80  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  70  89  68  90 /  20  20  60  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  71  81  69  86 /  30  30  80  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  71  83  70  87 /  20  30  80  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  72  82  69  86 /  30  30  80  60  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  73  83  72  87 /  30  40  80  70  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  73  82  72  87 /  30  30  80  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  73  83  71  88 /  30  30  80  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KMAF 241150
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected as dry southwest winds develop this
morning. Wind gusts to 20 KTS possible mid morning through sunset.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241150
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected as dry southwest winds develop this
morning. Wind gusts to 20 KTS possible mid morning through sunset.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241150
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected as dry southwest winds develop this
morning. Wind gusts to 20 KTS possible mid morning through sunset.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241150
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected as dry southwest winds develop this
morning. Wind gusts to 20 KTS possible mid morning through sunset.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 241148
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SLOW MOVING MCS...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A
FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED IFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS POOR ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
WILL LEAVE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL MORE MODEL
DATA CAN ANALYZE THE POST STORM ENVIRONMENT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN SOILS AND LOW LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN QUICK SATURATION
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLIES IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP MOST CONDITIONS IN IFR OR
BETTER FOR MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND AN MCV BETWEEN
VICTORIA AND SAN ANTONIO ARE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG I-35 NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH
198 TO EXPIRE. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
FURTHER EAST. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT DUE TO DECREASED PWS
AND INCREASED STABILITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS ON MONDAY. AIRMASS RESETS AS PWS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES
WITH CAPES AND SHEAR INCREASING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ALLOWING FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  82  68  87  72 /  30  80  60  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  82  68  87  72 /  30  80  60  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  82  70  87  72 /  30  80  50  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  80  68  85  71 /  30  80  50  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  89  68  90  74 /  20  60  20  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  81  69  86  71 /  30  80  50  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  83  70  87  73 /  30  80  40  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  82  69  86  72 /  30  80  60  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  83  72  87  74 /  40  80  70  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  82  72  87  73 /  30  80  50  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  83  71  88  74 /  30  80  50  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 241148
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SLOW MOVING MCS...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A
FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED IFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS POOR ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
WILL LEAVE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL MORE MODEL
DATA CAN ANALYZE THE POST STORM ENVIRONMENT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN SOILS AND LOW LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN QUICK SATURATION
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLIES IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP MOST CONDITIONS IN IFR OR
BETTER FOR MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND AN MCV BETWEEN
VICTORIA AND SAN ANTONIO ARE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG I-35 NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH
198 TO EXPIRE. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
FURTHER EAST. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT DUE TO DECREASED PWS
AND INCREASED STABILITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS ON MONDAY. AIRMASS RESETS AS PWS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES
WITH CAPES AND SHEAR INCREASING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ALLOWING FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  82  68  87  72 /  30  80  60  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  82  68  87  72 /  30  80  60  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  82  70  87  72 /  30  80  50  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  80  68  85  71 /  30  80  50  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  89  68  90  74 /  20  60  20  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  81  69  86  71 /  30  80  50  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  83  70  87  73 /  30  80  40  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  82  69  86  72 /  30  80  60  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  83  72  87  74 /  40  80  70  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  82  72  87  73 /  30  80  50  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  83  71  88  74 /  30  80  50  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KCRP 241148
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
648 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED SOUTH TEXAS...THUS HAVE
TAKEN MOST RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST. COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY NEAR THE ALI OR CRP TERMINALS. HAVE JUST VC GROUPS IN FOR
NOW...AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. WILL CONTINUE BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS TODAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MORNING CONVECTION NOW JUST
ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAKENING MESO VORTEX JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOULD LIFT THE PRECIP OUT OF THE REGION IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT KIND OF
RECOVERY THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DO DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORNING
CONVECTION HAS PROBABLY CUT CHANCES THAT WE/LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL BEND WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE TIME TO
RECOVER FROM THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. MOST MESO MODELS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH DRY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS THEN SET FOR TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL PULL
THAT SHORTWAVE A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS. THINK WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS...BUT BEST CHANCE
WILL BE IN NORTHERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE A BIG CHALLENGE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
TODAY. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS OUT WEST...AS DRY LINE MAY MOVE INTO
THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING MOISTURE AND ALLOWING TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE 90S. HAVE LOWER TO MID 80S EAST...BUT IF CLOUDS
DO BREAK UP AND RAIN DOESNT REDEVELOP...COULD GET WARMER THAN
THIS.

WILL CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST WITH LLJ
CONTINUING. HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHOULD REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF PROG
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...THE FOREGOING MODELS PROG THE UPPER PATTERN TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL CONUS IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGD TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD
AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA THURSDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY. FURTHER...THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT A QUASI-
STATIONARY APPROXIMATELY E-W BNDRY/TROF ACRS THE CWA/MSA DRG THE
PERIOD. THUS...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TUESDAY WL DECREASE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC PROG PWAT VALUES TO DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE BNDRY/NEAR NORMAL
PWAT VALUES WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WL CONTRIBUTE TO SCT CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  77  84  77  84  /  50  50  70  50  40
VICTORIA          83  74  83  73  83  /  60  60  80  60  40
LAREDO            90  74  91  75  90  /  20  30  40  40  30
ALICE             87  75  86  76  86  /  40  40  70  50  30
ROCKPORT          82  78  82  77  82  /  60  60  70  60  40
COTULLA           90  73  88  72  88  /  20  30  70  40  30
KINGSVILLE        87  77  86  77  85  /  40  50  70  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       83  79  83  78  82  /  60  60  70  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KEWX 241148
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SLOW MOVING MCS...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO A
FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED IFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS POOR ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
WILL LEAVE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL MORE MODEL
DATA CAN ANALYZE THE POST STORM ENVIRONMENT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
IN SOILS AND LOW LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN QUICK SATURATION
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLIES IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO KEEP MOST CONDITIONS IN IFR OR
BETTER FOR MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND AN MCV BETWEEN
VICTORIA AND SAN ANTONIO ARE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG I-35 NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH
198 TO EXPIRE. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
FURTHER EAST. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT DUE TO DECREASED PWS
AND INCREASED STABILITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS ON MONDAY. AIRMASS RESETS AS PWS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES
WITH CAPES AND SHEAR INCREASING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ALLOWING FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  82  68  87  72 /  30  80  60  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  82  68  87  72 /  30  80  60  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  82  70  87  72 /  30  80  50  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  80  68  85  71 /  30  80  50  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  89  68  90  74 /  20  60  20  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  81  69  86  71 /  30  80  50  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  83  70  87  73 /  30  80  40  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  82  69  86  72 /  30  80  60  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  83  72  87  74 /  40  80  70  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  82  72  87  73 /  30  80  50  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  83  71  88  74 /  30  80  50  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KCRP 241148
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
648 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED SOUTH TEXAS...THUS HAVE
TAKEN MOST RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST. COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY NEAR THE ALI OR CRP TERMINALS. HAVE JUST VC GROUPS IN FOR
NOW...AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. WILL CONTINUE BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS TODAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MORNING CONVECTION NOW JUST
ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAKENING MESO VORTEX JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOULD LIFT THE PRECIP OUT OF THE REGION IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT KIND OF
RECOVERY THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DO DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORNING
CONVECTION HAS PROBABLY CUT CHANCES THAT WE/LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL BEND WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE TIME TO
RECOVER FROM THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. MOST MESO MODELS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH DRY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS THEN SET FOR TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL PULL
THAT SHORTWAVE A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS. THINK WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS...BUT BEST CHANCE
WILL BE IN NORTHERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE A BIG CHALLENGE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
TODAY. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS OUT WEST...AS DRY LINE MAY MOVE INTO
THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING MOISTURE AND ALLOWING TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE 90S. HAVE LOWER TO MID 80S EAST...BUT IF CLOUDS
DO BREAK UP AND RAIN DOESNT REDEVELOP...COULD GET WARMER THAN
THIS.

WILL CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST WITH LLJ
CONTINUING. HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHOULD REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF PROG
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...THE FOREGOING MODELS PROG THE UPPER PATTERN TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL CONUS IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGD TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD
AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA THURSDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY. FURTHER...THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT A QUASI-
STATIONARY APPROXIMATELY E-W BNDRY/TROF ACRS THE CWA/MSA DRG THE
PERIOD. THUS...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TUESDAY WL DECREASE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC PROG PWAT VALUES TO DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE BNDRY/NEAR NORMAL
PWAT VALUES WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WL CONTRIBUTE TO SCT CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  77  84  77  84  /  50  50  70  50  40
VICTORIA          83  74  83  73  83  /  60  60  80  60  40
LAREDO            90  74  91  75  90  /  20  30  40  40  30
ALICE             87  75  86  76  86  /  40  40  70  50  30
ROCKPORT          82  78  82  77  82  /  60  60  70  60  40
COTULLA           90  73  88  72  88  /  20  30  70  40  30
KINGSVILLE        87  77  86  77  85  /  40  50  70  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       83  79  83  78  82  /  60  60  70  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 241148
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
648 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED SOUTH TEXAS...THUS HAVE
TAKEN MOST RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST. COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY NEAR THE ALI OR CRP TERMINALS. HAVE JUST VC GROUPS IN FOR
NOW...AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. WILL CONTINUE BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS TODAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MORNING CONVECTION NOW JUST
ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAKENING MESO VORTEX JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOULD LIFT THE PRECIP OUT OF THE REGION IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT KIND OF
RECOVERY THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DO DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORNING
CONVECTION HAS PROBABLY CUT CHANCES THAT WE/LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL BEND WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE TIME TO
RECOVER FROM THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. MOST MESO MODELS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH DRY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS THEN SET FOR TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL PULL
THAT SHORTWAVE A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS. THINK WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS...BUT BEST CHANCE
WILL BE IN NORTHERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE A BIG CHALLENGE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
TODAY. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS OUT WEST...AS DRY LINE MAY MOVE INTO
THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING MOISTURE AND ALLOWING TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE 90S. HAVE LOWER TO MID 80S EAST...BUT IF CLOUDS
DO BREAK UP AND RAIN DOESNT REDEVELOP...COULD GET WARMER THAN
THIS.

WILL CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST WITH LLJ
CONTINUING. HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHOULD REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF PROG
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...THE FOREGOING MODELS PROG THE UPPER PATTERN TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL CONUS IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGD TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD
AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA THURSDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY. FURTHER...THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT A QUASI-
STATIONARY APPROXIMATELY E-W BNDRY/TROF ACRS THE CWA/MSA DRG THE
PERIOD. THUS...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TUESDAY WL DECREASE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC PROG PWAT VALUES TO DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE BNDRY/NEAR NORMAL
PWAT VALUES WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WL CONTRIBUTE TO SCT CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  77  84  77  84  /  50  50  70  50  40
VICTORIA          83  74  83  73  83  /  60  60  80  60  40
LAREDO            90  74  91  75  90  /  20  30  40  40  30
ALICE             87  75  86  76  86  /  40  40  70  50  30
ROCKPORT          82  78  82  77  82  /  60  60  70  60  40
COTULLA           90  73  88  72  88  /  20  30  70  40  30
KINGSVILLE        87  77  86  77  85  /  40  50  70  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       83  79  83  78  82  /  60  60  70  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 241148
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
648 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED SOUTH TEXAS...THUS HAVE
TAKEN MOST RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST. COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY NEAR THE ALI OR CRP TERMINALS. HAVE JUST VC GROUPS IN FOR
NOW...AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. WILL CONTINUE BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS TODAY. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MORNING CONVECTION NOW JUST
ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAKENING MESO VORTEX JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOULD LIFT THE PRECIP OUT OF THE REGION IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT KIND OF
RECOVERY THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DO DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORNING
CONVECTION HAS PROBABLY CUT CHANCES THAT WE/LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL BEND WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE TIME TO
RECOVER FROM THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. MOST MESO MODELS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH DRY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS THEN SET FOR TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL PULL
THAT SHORTWAVE A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS. THINK WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS...BUT BEST CHANCE
WILL BE IN NORTHERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE A BIG CHALLENGE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
TODAY. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS OUT WEST...AS DRY LINE MAY MOVE INTO
THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING MOISTURE AND ALLOWING TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE 90S. HAVE LOWER TO MID 80S EAST...BUT IF CLOUDS
DO BREAK UP AND RAIN DOESNT REDEVELOP...COULD GET WARMER THAN
THIS.

WILL CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST WITH LLJ
CONTINUING. HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHOULD REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF PROG
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...THE FOREGOING MODELS PROG THE UPPER PATTERN TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL CONUS IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGD TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD
AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA THURSDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY. FURTHER...THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT A QUASI-
STATIONARY APPROXIMATELY E-W BNDRY/TROF ACRS THE CWA/MSA DRG THE
PERIOD. THUS...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TUESDAY WL DECREASE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC PROG PWAT VALUES TO DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE BNDRY/NEAR NORMAL
PWAT VALUES WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WL CONTRIBUTE TO SCT CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  77  84  77  84  /  50  50  70  50  40
VICTORIA          83  74  83  73  83  /  60  60  80  60  40
LAREDO            90  74  91  75  90  /  20  30  40  40  30
ALICE             87  75  86  76  86  /  40  40  70  50  30
ROCKPORT          82  78  82  77  82  /  60  60  70  60  40
COTULLA           90  73  88  72  88  /  20  30  70  40  30
KINGSVILLE        87  77  86  77  85  /  40  50  70  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       83  79  83  78  82  /  60  60  70  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KSJT 241134
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  50  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  50  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  50  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

04





000
FXUS64 KSJT 241134
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  50  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  50  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  50  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 241134
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  50  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  50  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  50  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 241134
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  50  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  50  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  50  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 241134
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  50  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  50  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  50  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

04






000
FXUS64 KSJT 241134
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  50  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  50  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  50  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

04





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBRO 241131 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION COVERED MOST
OF THE CWA. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4500FT AT KHRL TO NEAR 10000FT AT
KT65. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 4SM WITH RAIN AND FOG AT KBRO TO NEAR
5SM WITH RAIN AND FOG AT KPIL. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST TX THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.
LATEST BRO RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS CAMERON
COUNTY...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAGUNA MADRE AND INTO THE GULF
WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDING BACK TO STARR COUNTY.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER JUST
SOUTHWEST OF CAMERON COUNTY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES HAS
FALLEN OVER THE CITY OF BROWNSVILLE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH 7 AM AND ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN
FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY WILL BE RAIN CHANCES AFTER THIS
CONVECTION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
STABLE ATMOSPHERE...DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SHOULD KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LIMITED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE 500 MB
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BY LATE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
WEST EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 70S.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/09 UTC.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ALONG FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS RESULTING IN MODERATE WINDS AND
LOWER SEAS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ250-251-253>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/64/55



000
FXUS64 KBRO 241131 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION COVERED MOST
OF THE CWA. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4500FT AT KHRL TO NEAR 10000FT AT
KT65. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 4SM WITH RAIN AND FOG AT KBRO TO NEAR
5SM WITH RAIN AND FOG AT KPIL. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST TX THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.
LATEST BRO RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS CAMERON
COUNTY...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAGUNA MADRE AND INTO THE GULF
WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDING BACK TO STARR COUNTY.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER JUST
SOUTHWEST OF CAMERON COUNTY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES HAS
FALLEN OVER THE CITY OF BROWNSVILLE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH 7 AM AND ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN
FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY WILL BE RAIN CHANCES AFTER THIS
CONVECTION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
STABLE ATMOSPHERE...DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SHOULD KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LIMITED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE 500 MB
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BY LATE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
WEST EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 70S.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/09 UTC.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ALONG FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS RESULTING IN MODERATE WINDS AND
LOWER SEAS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ250-251-253>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/64/55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 241131 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION COVERED MOST
OF THE CWA. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4500FT AT KHRL TO NEAR 10000FT AT
KT65. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 4SM WITH RAIN AND FOG AT KBRO TO NEAR
5SM WITH RAIN AND FOG AT KPIL. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST TX THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.
LATEST BRO RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS CAMERON
COUNTY...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAGUNA MADRE AND INTO THE GULF
WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDING BACK TO STARR COUNTY.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER JUST
SOUTHWEST OF CAMERON COUNTY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES HAS
FALLEN OVER THE CITY OF BROWNSVILLE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH 7 AM AND ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN
FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY WILL BE RAIN CHANCES AFTER THIS
CONVECTION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
STABLE ATMOSPHERE...DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SHOULD KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LIMITED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE 500 MB
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BY LATE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
WEST EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 70S.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/09 UTC.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ALONG FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS RESULTING IN MODERATE WINDS AND
LOWER SEAS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ250-251-253>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/64/55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 241131 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION COVERED MOST
OF THE CWA. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4500FT AT KHRL TO NEAR 10000FT AT
KT65. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 4SM WITH RAIN AND FOG AT KBRO TO NEAR
5SM WITH RAIN AND FOG AT KPIL. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST TX THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.
LATEST BRO RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS CAMERON
COUNTY...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAGUNA MADRE AND INTO THE GULF
WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDING BACK TO STARR COUNTY.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER JUST
SOUTHWEST OF CAMERON COUNTY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES HAS
FALLEN OVER THE CITY OF BROWNSVILLE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH 7 AM AND ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN
FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY WILL BE RAIN CHANCES AFTER THIS
CONVECTION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
STABLE ATMOSPHERE...DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SHOULD KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LIMITED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE 500 MB
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BY LATE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
WEST EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 70S.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/09 UTC.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ALONG FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS RESULTING IN MODERATE WINDS AND
LOWER SEAS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ250-251-253>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/64/55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 241131 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION COVERED MOST
OF THE CWA. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4500FT AT KHRL TO NEAR 10000FT AT
KT65. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 4SM WITH RAIN AND FOG AT KBRO TO NEAR
5SM WITH RAIN AND FOG AT KPIL. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST TX THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.
LATEST BRO RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS CAMERON
COUNTY...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAGUNA MADRE AND INTO THE GULF
WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDING BACK TO STARR COUNTY.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER JUST
SOUTHWEST OF CAMERON COUNTY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES HAS
FALLEN OVER THE CITY OF BROWNSVILLE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH 7 AM AND ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN
FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY WILL BE RAIN CHANCES AFTER THIS
CONVECTION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
STABLE ATMOSPHERE...DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SHOULD KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LIMITED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE 500 MB
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BY LATE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
WEST EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 70S.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/09 UTC.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ALONG FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS RESULTING IN MODERATE WINDS AND
LOWER SEAS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ250-251-253>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/64/55



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KAMA 241120
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
620 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS SLOWLY IMPROVING AT THE TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE. KAMA HAS MANAGED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BUT A MVFR/IFR STRATUS
DECK SURROUNDS IT ON ALL SIDES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME WHERE THIS STRATUS DECK MOVES BACK OVER KAMA. BY 15Z
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SURFACE WINDS AT KAMA AND KDHT WILL VEER TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE KGUY BACK TO A EASTERLY
DIRECTION AS A LEE SIDE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DEEPENS.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ALLOW KGUY TO VEER TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD POSE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATEST STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER
WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST CO EARLY THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM A
LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN A LOW STRATUS
DECK AND SOME PATCHY FOG.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE PARENT UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE PANHANDLES...AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-
LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE AXIS OF A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET
COULD INITIATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM/THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...STRONGLY SUSPECT THE DRYLINE WILL LAG FARTHER WEST THAN
PROGGED BY MODELS GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN AND VERY WET
GROUNDS...AND WILL LIKELY END UP BEING MORE DIFFUSE THAN SHOWN IN
MODELS FOR THESE SAME REASONS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
IN THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN SUPPORTED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE...ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK. IN FACT...THE AREA MAY BE EXPERIENCING WEAK
SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LIMIT STORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE. A LITTLE STRONGER FORCING WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER TODAY...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT WHEN
COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. NO
ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT PWATS WILL
STILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE
STORMS...WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE FLOODING PROBLEMS BUT LIKELY ON A VERY
LOCALIZED BASIS.

LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON MEMORIAL DAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS AROUND THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH. TIMING
OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PLACE THE SLIGHTLY BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES...BUT HARD TO RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM ABOUT ANYWHERE. A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO
RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A STILL ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL AROUND...COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL COME DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY A DRYING
TREND BY THE WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN OPEN AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE LAST FEW.

KB

HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN AT BANKFULL LEVELS TODAY. THEY HAVE ALL DROPPED BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...AND DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SECONDARY
CRESTS...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE OF A MUCH MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED RISES OR AGGRAVATE
FLOODING ISSUES ON A LOCALIZED BASIS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS
OR FLOODING ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 241120
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
620 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS SLOWLY IMPROVING AT THE TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE. KAMA HAS MANAGED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BUT A MVFR/IFR STRATUS
DECK SURROUNDS IT ON ALL SIDES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME WHERE THIS STRATUS DECK MOVES BACK OVER KAMA. BY 15Z
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SURFACE WINDS AT KAMA AND KDHT WILL VEER TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WHILE KGUY BACK TO A EASTERLY
DIRECTION AS A LEE SIDE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DEEPENS.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ALLOW KGUY TO VEER TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD POSE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATEST STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER
WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST CO EARLY THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM A
LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN A LOW STRATUS
DECK AND SOME PATCHY FOG.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE PARENT UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE PANHANDLES...AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-
LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE AXIS OF A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET
COULD INITIATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM/THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...STRONGLY SUSPECT THE DRYLINE WILL LAG FARTHER WEST THAN
PROGGED BY MODELS GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN AND VERY WET
GROUNDS...AND WILL LIKELY END UP BEING MORE DIFFUSE THAN SHOWN IN
MODELS FOR THESE SAME REASONS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
IN THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN SUPPORTED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE...ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK. IN FACT...THE AREA MAY BE EXPERIENCING WEAK
SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LIMIT STORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE. A LITTLE STRONGER FORCING WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER TODAY...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT WHEN
COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. NO
ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT PWATS WILL
STILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE
STORMS...WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE FLOODING PROBLEMS BUT LIKELY ON A VERY
LOCALIZED BASIS.

LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON MEMORIAL DAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS AROUND THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH. TIMING
OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PLACE THE SLIGHTLY BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES...BUT HARD TO RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM ABOUT ANYWHERE. A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO
RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A STILL ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL AROUND...COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL COME DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY A DRYING
TREND BY THE WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN OPEN AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE LAST FEW.

KB

HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN AT BANKFULL LEVELS TODAY. THEY HAVE ALL DROPPED BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...AND DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SECONDARY
CRESTS...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE OF A MUCH MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED RISES OR AGGRAVATE
FLOODING ISSUES ON A LOCALIZED BASIS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS
OR FLOODING ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/08





000
FXUS64 KHGX 241012
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
512 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MCS MOVING UP THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING BRINGING WINDS NEAR
OR ABOVE SEVERE LIMITS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...CAN`T RULE OUT TORNADOES
AS WELL WITH THE SHALLOW LL SHEAR PRESENT.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE AREA REACHING THE I-45 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 11-14Z THEN SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST. THIS MAY GIVE THE
AREA A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM HEAVY RAINS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY GET MORE STORMS GOING BUT
NOT NEARLY AS ORGANIZED. HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN A THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN EXPECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOPMENT FROM EAST OF THE AREA BACK INTO THE CWA.
VERY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL OCCUR WITH A RESTRENGTHENING
LLJ. THESE TWO SYSTEM MAY WELL MERGE OVER THE REGION...NOT SURE IF
IT WILL BE NORTH OR SOUTH BUT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. SO
LARGE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON MONDAY
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS WITH MORE LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND LIMITED
HEATING TO WORK WITH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FOR ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AND HAVE ALSO ADDED
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND THE RIP CURRENTS
ADVISORY.

VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE...VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE CLUSTERING UP IN
THE MCV/COMMA COMING UP ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE 59 CORRIDOR
WHICH COULD EASILY FOCUS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM COLUMBUS TO
CONROE TO GROVETON...RAIN RATES OF 3+ INCHES PER HOUR AREN`T OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TODAY OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
SEEM LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIER CLUSTERS. WITH MORE ON THE WAY FOR
TOMORROW.

45

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO EXIT REGION TOWARDS THE
EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE /EVIDENCED WITH SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/ WILL HELP LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TUESDAY. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DRIVEN MORE BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND ACCORDINGLY THE HIGHEST DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK AND APPROACHES THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

HUFFMAN

&&

.MARINE...
LINEAR MCS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOST LIKELY
WARRANT SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR WINDS 25-40+ KNOTS.   STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEAS OF 5-9 FEET
SHOULD BE THE NORM THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY LOWERING. LARGE RUN
UP FROM THE SWELLS AND ONSHORE COMPONENT SHOULD LEAD TO FLOODED
BEACHES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. GRADUALLY WINDS COME DOWN TUESDAY
AND RIP TIDES SHOULD LESSEN.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      79  73  82  72  86 / 100  50 100  70  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  74  82  75  85 / 100  70  90  70  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  78  83  77  84 / 100  60  80  70  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45



000
FXUS64 KHGX 241012
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
512 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE MCS MOVING UP THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING BRINGING WINDS NEAR
OR ABOVE SEVERE LIMITS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...CAN`T RULE OUT TORNADOES
AS WELL WITH THE SHALLOW LL SHEAR PRESENT.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE AREA REACHING THE I-45 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 11-14Z THEN SLOWLY DEPART TO THE EAST. THIS MAY GIVE THE
AREA A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM HEAVY RAINS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY GET MORE STORMS GOING BUT
NOT NEARLY AS ORGANIZED. HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN A THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN EXPECT THE NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOPMENT FROM EAST OF THE AREA BACK INTO THE CWA.
VERY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL OCCUR WITH A RESTRENGTHENING
LLJ. THESE TWO SYSTEM MAY WELL MERGE OVER THE REGION...NOT SURE IF
IT WILL BE NORTH OR SOUTH BUT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. SO
LARGE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON MONDAY
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS WITH MORE LINEAR HODOGRAPHS AND LIMITED
HEATING TO WORK WITH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS FOR ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AND HAVE ALSO ADDED
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND THE RIP CURRENTS
ADVISORY.

VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
SHOULD BE COMMONPLACE...VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE CLUSTERING UP IN
THE MCV/COMMA COMING UP ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE 59 CORRIDOR
WHICH COULD EASILY FOCUS A SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM COLUMBUS TO
CONROE TO GROVETON...RAIN RATES OF 3+ INCHES PER HOUR AREN`T OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TODAY OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
SEEM LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIER CLUSTERS. WITH MORE ON THE WAY FOR
TOMORROW.

45

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO EXIT REGION TOWARDS THE
EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE /EVIDENCED WITH SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/ WILL HELP LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TUESDAY. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DRIVEN MORE BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND ACCORDINGLY THE HIGHEST DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK AND APPROACHES THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

HUFFMAN

&&

.MARINE...
LINEAR MCS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOST LIKELY
WARRANT SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR WINDS 25-40+ KNOTS.   STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEAS OF 5-9 FEET
SHOULD BE THE NORM THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY LOWERING. LARGE RUN
UP FROM THE SWELLS AND ONSHORE COMPONENT SHOULD LEAD TO FLOODED
BEACHES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. GRADUALLY WINDS COME DOWN TUESDAY
AND RIP TIDES SHOULD LESSEN.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      79  73  82  72  86 / 100  50 100  70  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  74  82  75  85 / 100  70  90  70  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  78  83  77  84 / 100  60  80  70  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KMAF 241007
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
507 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  56  85  59  /  10  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              86  62  86  61  /  20  10  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  53  86  54  /   0   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  91  65  90  66  /  10  10  30  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  59  88  60  /  10  10  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  55  80  59  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  51  82  53  /  10   0  10   0
MARFA TX                   80  43  82  45  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  61  87  60  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  85  61  86  61  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                    88  55  89  57  /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99/99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241007
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
507 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  56  85  59  /  10  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              86  62  86  61  /  20  10  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  53  86  54  /   0   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  91  65  90  66  /  10  10  30  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  59  88  60  /  10  10  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  55  80  59  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  51  82  53  /  10   0  10   0
MARFA TX                   80  43  82  45  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  61  87  60  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  85  61  86  61  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                    88  55  89  57  /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99/99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241007
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
507 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  56  85  59  /  10  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              86  62  86  61  /  20  10  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  53  86  54  /   0   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  91  65  90  66  /  10  10  30  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  59  88  60  /  10  10  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  55  80  59  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  51  82  53  /  10   0  10   0
MARFA TX                   80  43  82  45  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  61  87  60  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  85  61  86  61  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                    88  55  89  57  /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99/99

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  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 240952
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
352 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY HIGH MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE WARMING UP TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MOST ACTIVITY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LATE MAY IN PLACE FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. DEEP AND VERY LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH UPPER WAVE ROTATING
AROUND IT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE A
LEE CYCLONE WAS PRESENT OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. RESULTANT
CIRCULATION WILL INCLUDE A DEEP WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS NEW MEXICO TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH TRANSPORT OF DRY AIR KEEPING SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MOSTLY BELOW 40 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW .5 INCH MOST AREAS
DURING THIS TIME. UPPER WAVE NOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PASS ACROSS
THE CWA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE BARELY SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AND FAR
NORTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW AND PASSAGE OF SHORT
WAVE RIDGE WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF IT PUSHING MOISTURE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO
AROUND .5 TO AN 1 INCH EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE CAUSING AIR MASS TO
DESTABILIZE AGAIN. THUS A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES WITH
MOSTLY WARM DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING WARM DRY
WEATHER ALL LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY BEFORE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS
FROM THE EAST AND GENERATES MORE CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/12Z-25/12Z.
ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z...MAINLY OVER HIGH MOUNTAIN
AREAS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH A FEW AREAS OF
CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL. SURFACE WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30
MPH BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE WARMING UP
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWEST HUMIDITY
WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS A
FEW AREAS WILL SEE CONDITIONS APPROACHING RED FLAG THIS AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH.
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST ACTIVITY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 83  59  85  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           85  54  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              81  50  82  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              81  53  82  57  85 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              59  40  60  45  64 /   0  20  10  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   79  51  81  56  84 /   0  10  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             72  46  73  48  77 /   0  20  10   0   0
DEMING                  81  49  82  51  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               80  51  81  51  86 /   0  10   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      82  58  85  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               82  53  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            84  56  87  58  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              77  53  78  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  82  55  85  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            83  55  83  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          81  56  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           81  49  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   82  50  83  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                81  54  81  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               81  55  81  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 68  46  69  50  71 /   0  20  10  10   0
MESCALERO               68  44  69  48  72 /   0  20  20  10   0
TIMBERON                68  45  68  49  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
WINSTON                 72  43  72  47  76 /   0  20  20  10   0
HILLSBORO               79  47  80  51  84 /   0  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               81  48  82  52  86 /   0  10   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            72  44  72  46  77 /   0  20  20  10   0
HURLEY                  75  46  75  47  80 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLIFF                   78  46  79  48  84 /   0  20  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              76  41  77  42  81 /   0  20  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 76  48  76  50  80 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  81  51  82  51  86 /   0  10   0   0   0
HACHITA                 82  50  82  51  87 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          81  49  82  49  87 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              77  49  77  49  82 /   0  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 240952
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
352 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY HIGH MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE WARMING UP TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MOST ACTIVITY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LATE MAY IN PLACE FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. DEEP AND VERY LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH UPPER WAVE ROTATING
AROUND IT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE A
LEE CYCLONE WAS PRESENT OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. RESULTANT
CIRCULATION WILL INCLUDE A DEEP WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS NEW MEXICO TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH TRANSPORT OF DRY AIR KEEPING SURFACE DEWPOINTS
MOSTLY BELOW 40 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW .5 INCH MOST AREAS
DURING THIS TIME. UPPER WAVE NOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL PASS ACROSS
THE CWA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE BARELY SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AND FAR
NORTHERN AREAS ON MONDAY WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW AND PASSAGE OF SHORT
WAVE RIDGE WILL ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH BACKING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF IT PUSHING MOISTURE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO
AROUND .5 TO AN 1 INCH EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE CAUSING AIR MASS TO
DESTABILIZE AGAIN. THUS A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES WITH
MOSTLY WARM DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING WARM DRY
WEATHER ALL LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY BEFORE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS
FROM THE EAST AND GENERATES MORE CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/12Z-25/12Z.
ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z...MAINLY OVER HIGH MOUNTAIN
AREAS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH A FEW AREAS OF
CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL. SURFACE WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30
MPH BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE WARMING UP
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWEST HUMIDITY
WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS A
FEW AREAS WILL SEE CONDITIONS APPROACHING RED FLAG THIS AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH.
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST ACTIVITY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 83  59  85  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           85  54  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              81  50  82  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              81  53  82  57  85 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              59  40  60  45  64 /   0  20  10  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   79  51  81  56  84 /   0  10  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             72  46  73  48  77 /   0  20  10   0   0
DEMING                  81  49  82  51  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               80  51  81  51  86 /   0  10   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      82  58  85  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               82  53  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            84  56  87  58  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              77  53  78  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  82  55  85  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            83  55  83  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          81  56  82  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           81  49  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   82  50  83  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                81  54  81  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               81  55  81  59  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 68  46  69  50  71 /   0  20  10  10   0
MESCALERO               68  44  69  48  72 /   0  20  20  10   0
TIMBERON                68  45  68  49  71 /   0  10  10  10   0
WINSTON                 72  43  72  47  76 /   0  20  20  10   0
HILLSBORO               79  47  80  51  84 /   0  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               81  48  82  52  86 /   0  10   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            72  44  72  46  77 /   0  20  20  10   0
HURLEY                  75  46  75  47  80 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLIFF                   78  46  79  48  84 /   0  20  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              76  41  77  42  81 /   0  20  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 76  48  76  50  80 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  81  51  82  51  86 /   0  10   0   0   0
HACHITA                 82  50  82  51  87 /   0  10   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          81  49  82  49  87 /   0  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              77  49  77  49  82 /   0  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH






000
FXUS64 KAMA 240933
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD POSE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATEST STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER
WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST CO EARLY THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM A
LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN A LOW STRATUS
DECK AND SOME PATCHY FOG.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE PARENT UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE PANHANDLES...AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-
LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE AXIS OF A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET
COULD INITIATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM/THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...STRONGLY SUSPECT THE DRYLINE WILL LAG FARTHER WEST THAN
PROGGED BY MODELS GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN AND VERY WET
GROUNDS...AND WILL LIKELY END UP BEING MORE DIFFUSE THAN SHOWN IN
MODELS FOR THESE SAME REASONS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
IN THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN SUPPORTED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE...ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK. IN FACT...THE AREA MAY BE EXPERIENCING WEAK
SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LIMIT STORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE. A LITTLE STRONGER FORCING WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER TODAY...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT WHEN
COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. NO
ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT PWATS WILL
STILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE
STORMS...WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE FLOODING PROBLEMS BUT LIKELY ON A VERY
LOCALIZED BASIS.

LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON MEMORIAL DAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS AROUND THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH. TIMING
OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PLACE THE SLIGHTLY BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES...BUT HARD TO RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM ABOUT ANYWHERE. A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO
RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A STILL ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL AROUND...COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL COME DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY A DRYING
TREND BY THE WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN OPEN AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE LAST FEW.

KB

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN AT BANKFULL LEVELS TODAY. THEY HAVE ALL DROPPED BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...AND DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SECONDARY
CRESTS...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE OF A MUCH MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED RISES OR AGGRAVATE
FLOODING ISSUES ON A LOCALIZED BASIS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS
OR FLOODING ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                78  51  79  53  78 /  20  10  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  75  54  80  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              74  50  74  51  75 /  20  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  79  55  79  55  80 /  20  10  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              79  50  79  52  80 /  10  10  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  78  51  78  53  79 /  20  10  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               79  52  78  55  81 /  20  10  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 77  49  77  51  76 /  10  10  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  76  52  77  53  77 /  20  20  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                80  51  78  52  80 /  10  10  20  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                73  56  79  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   75  52  77  53  77 /  20  10  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                75  56  79  56  80 /  30  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              79  57  80  58  83 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/08





000
FXUS64 KAMA 240933
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
433 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD POSE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATEST STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER
WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST CO EARLY THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM A
LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN A LOW STRATUS
DECK AND SOME PATCHY FOG.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE PARENT UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE PANHANDLES...AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-
LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE AXIS OF A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET
COULD INITIATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM/THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...STRONGLY SUSPECT THE DRYLINE WILL LAG FARTHER WEST THAN
PROGGED BY MODELS GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN AND VERY WET
GROUNDS...AND WILL LIKELY END UP BEING MORE DIFFUSE THAN SHOWN IN
MODELS FOR THESE SAME REASONS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS
IN THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN SUPPORTED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE...ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK. IN FACT...THE AREA MAY BE EXPERIENCING WEAK
SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LIMIT STORM
CHANCES/COVERAGE. A LITTLE STRONGER FORCING WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER TODAY...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT WHEN
COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. NO
ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT PWATS WILL
STILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE
STORMS...WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE FLOODING PROBLEMS BUT LIKELY ON A VERY
LOCALIZED BASIS.

LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON MEMORIAL DAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS AROUND THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH. TIMING
OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PLACE THE SLIGHTLY BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES...BUT HARD TO RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM ABOUT ANYWHERE. A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO
RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A STILL ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL AROUND...COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION BOTH DAYS...BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL COME DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY A DRYING
TREND BY THE WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN OPEN AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE LAST FEW.

KB

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN AT BANKFULL LEVELS TODAY. THEY HAVE ALL DROPPED BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...AND DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SECONDARY
CRESTS...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE OF A MUCH MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED RISES OR AGGRAVATE
FLOODING ISSUES ON A LOCALIZED BASIS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS
OR FLOODING ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                78  51  79  53  78 /  20  10  20  20  10
BEAVER OK                  75  54  80  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              74  50  74  51  75 /  20  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  79  55  79  55  80 /  20  10  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              79  50  79  52  80 /  10  10  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  78  51  78  53  79 /  20  10  20  20  10
CLARENDON TX               79  52  78  55  81 /  20  10  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 77  49  77  51  76 /  10  10  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  76  52  77  53  77 /  20  20  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                80  51  78  52  80 /  10  10  20  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                73  56  79  55  79 /  30  20  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   75  52  77  53  77 /  20  10  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                75  56  79  56  80 /  30  20  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              79  57  80  58  83 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/08






000
FXUS64 KBRO 240927
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
427 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.
LATEST BRO RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS CAMERON
COUNTY...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAGUNA MADRE AND INTO THE GULF
WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDING BACK TO STARR COUNTY.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER JUST
SOUTHWEST OF CAMERON COUNTY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES HAS
FALLEN OVER THE CITY OF BROWNSVILLE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH 7 AM AND
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
MAIN FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY WILL BE RAIN CHANCES AFTER THIS
CONVECTION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
STABLE ATMOSPHERE...DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SHOULD KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LIMITED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE 500 MB
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BY LATE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
WEST EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 70S.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/09 UTC.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ALONG FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS RESULTING IN MODERATE WINDS AND
LOWER SEAS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63



000
FXUS64 KBRO 240927
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
427 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.
LATEST BRO RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS CAMERON
COUNTY...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAGUNA MADRE AND INTO THE GULF
WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDING BACK TO STARR COUNTY.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER JUST
SOUTHWEST OF CAMERON COUNTY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES HAS
FALLEN OVER THE CITY OF BROWNSVILLE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH 7 AM AND
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
MAIN FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY WILL BE RAIN CHANCES AFTER THIS
CONVECTION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
STABLE ATMOSPHERE...DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SHOULD KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LIMITED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE 500 MB
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BY LATE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
WEST EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 70S.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/09 UTC.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ALONG FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS RESULTING IN MODERATE WINDS AND
LOWER SEAS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KSJT 240923
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  50  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  50  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  50  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

04/26






000
FXUS64 KSJT 240923
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  50  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  50  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  50  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

04/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 240923
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
423 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE BIG BEND INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU CONTINUES TO DRIVE A PLETHORA OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH A WELL DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX IN BETWEEN THE METROPLEX AND SHERMAN. HAVE SEEN SOME TRAILING
SHOWERS/STORMS GET GOING BETWEEN PECOS AND BIG SPRING WHICH COULD
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECTING THESE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME BLOSSOMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
MUCH STRONGER SHIELD OF ACTIVITY EAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON...BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/KANSAS...WILL LIKELY
KEEP MOST AREAS DRY AS A SURFACE LOW ALSO NUDGES EASTWARD FROM THE
FRONT RANGE TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS THUS MIXING THE DRYLINE NEAR OR
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WET SOILS AND FALLING PRESSURES IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO MAY ATTEMPT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD ULTIMATELY WIN OUT BY MID AFTERNOON AND PEAK HEATING.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. LOCALES
IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE/NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE
HELPED BY ANY MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS NEARER THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW...BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO BE THE OVERALL RULE
FOR WEST TEXAS. NONETHELESS...ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND NO CAP TO FIGHT AGAINST AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL DEVELOP OWING TO QUITE COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S-MID 80S.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT GIVEN 30-40 KNOTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD THEN ENSUE AS VEERING SURFACE WINDS
LIKELY KEEP LOW STRATUS/FOG EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
TRANS-PECOS...BUT ANY IMPACT IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MEMORIAL DAY PENDING MOISTURE
RETURN.

.LONG TERM...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY
LEAVING US ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE FEATURE BY THE TIME THE
AFTERNOON ROLLS AROUND. AFTER PASSAGE...THOUGH NEAR ZONAL IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED THUS KEEPING THINGS FROM MAKING THE FCST TOO SIMPLE. INTO
THURSDAY...TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RETURN
OF SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES TO BE A HARBINGER OF ACTIVE
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS A BIT
MUDDIED UNTIL RIDGING OUT WEST FINALLY LOOKS TO START INTO THE
PICTURE NEXT WEEKEND. AS AN ASIDE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SPIN UP
A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC AROUND 1 JUNE.

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PAINTS A DRY PICTURE FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE DRYLINE LIGHTING UP ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING EAST DURING THE EVENING. TUESDAY APPEARS TO
BE A DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION THOUGH NWP INDICATES DETERMINISTIC
PRECIPITATION NOISE THOUGH NO CLEAR SIGNAL EXIST. THUS...WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THEREAFTER...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  48  76  50 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         80  50  74  51 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     80  51  75  53 /  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     81  51  80  54 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       82  53  80  55 /  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   81  52  80  54 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    83  52  81  55 /  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     79  57  80  57 /  30  20  20  20
SPUR          82  55  77  54 /  30  10  30  20
ASPERMONT     84  58  79  58 /  30  10  50  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/26




000
FXUS64 KLUB 240923
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
423 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE BIG BEND INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU CONTINUES TO DRIVE A PLETHORA OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH A WELL DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX IN BETWEEN THE METROPLEX AND SHERMAN. HAVE SEEN SOME TRAILING
SHOWERS/STORMS GET GOING BETWEEN PECOS AND BIG SPRING WHICH COULD
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECTING THESE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME BLOSSOMING IN THE WAKE OF THE
MUCH STRONGER SHIELD OF ACTIVITY EAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON...BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/KANSAS...WILL LIKELY
KEEP MOST AREAS DRY AS A SURFACE LOW ALSO NUDGES EASTWARD FROM THE
FRONT RANGE TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS THUS MIXING THE DRYLINE NEAR OR
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WET SOILS AND FALLING PRESSURES IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO MAY ATTEMPT TO KEEP THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SYNOPTIC
FORCING SHOULD ULTIMATELY WIN OUT BY MID AFTERNOON AND PEAK HEATING.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. LOCALES
IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE/NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE
HELPED BY ANY MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS NEARER THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW...BUT WIDESPREAD HEIGHT RISES LOOK TO BE THE OVERALL RULE
FOR WEST TEXAS. NONETHELESS...ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND NO CAP TO FIGHT AGAINST AS STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL DEVELOP OWING TO QUITE COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S-MID 80S.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE A THREAT GIVEN 30-40 KNOTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD THEN ENSUE AS VEERING SURFACE WINDS
LIKELY KEEP LOW STRATUS/FOG EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
TRANS-PECOS...BUT ANY IMPACT IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MEMORIAL DAY PENDING MOISTURE
RETURN.

.LONG TERM...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY
LEAVING US ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE FEATURE BY THE TIME THE
AFTERNOON ROLLS AROUND. AFTER PASSAGE...THOUGH NEAR ZONAL IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY...EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED THUS KEEPING THINGS FROM MAKING THE FCST TOO SIMPLE. INTO
THURSDAY...TROUGHING RETURNS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RETURN
OF SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES TO BE A HARBINGER OF ACTIVE
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS A BIT
MUDDIED UNTIL RIDGING OUT WEST FINALLY LOOKS TO START INTO THE
PICTURE NEXT WEEKEND. AS AN ASIDE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SPIN UP
A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC AROUND 1 JUNE.

DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PAINTS A DRY PICTURE FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE DRYLINE LIGHTING UP ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSHING EAST DURING THE EVENING. TUESDAY APPEARS TO
BE A DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION THOUGH NWP INDICATES DETERMINISTIC
PRECIPITATION NOISE THOUGH NO CLEAR SIGNAL EXIST. THUS...WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THEREAFTER...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  48  76  50 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         80  50  74  51 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     80  51  75  53 /  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     81  51  80  54 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       82  53  80  55 /  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   81  52  80  54 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    83  52  81  55 /  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     79  57  80  57 /  30  20  20  20
SPUR          82  55  77  54 /  30  10  30  20
ASPERMONT     84  58  79  58 /  30  10  50  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/26



000
FXUS64 KEWX 240905
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND AN MCV BETWEEN
VICTORIA AND SAN ANTONIO ARE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG I-35 NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH
198 TO EXPIRE. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
FURTHER EAST. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT DUE TO DECREASED PWS
AND INCREASED STABILITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS ON MONDAY. AIRMASS RESETS AS PWS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES
WITH CAPES AND SHEAR INCREASING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ALLOWING FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  72  82  68  87 /  50  40  80  60  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  71  82  68  87 /  60  40  80  60  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  72  82  70  87 /  40  40  80  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  70  80  68  85 /  30  30  80  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  70  89  68  90 /  20  20  60  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  71  81  69  86 /  50  30  80  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  71  83  70  87 /  20  30  80  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  72  82  69  86 /  40  40  80  60  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  73  83  72  87 /  90  50  80  70  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  73  82  72  87 /  20  30  80  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  73  83  71  88 /  20  40  80  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 240905
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND AN MCV BETWEEN
VICTORIA AND SAN ANTONIO ARE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG I-35 NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH
198 TO EXPIRE. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
FURTHER EAST. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT DUE TO DECREASED PWS
AND INCREASED STABILITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS ON MONDAY. AIRMASS RESETS AS PWS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES
WITH CAPES AND SHEAR INCREASING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ALLOWING FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  72  82  68  87 /  50  40  80  60  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  71  82  68  87 /  60  40  80  60  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  72  82  70  87 /  40  40  80  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  70  80  68  85 /  30  30  80  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  70  89  68  90 /  20  20  60  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  71  81  69  86 /  50  30  80  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  71  83  70  87 /  20  30  80  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  72  82  69  86 /  40  40  80  60  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  73  83  72  87 /  90  50  80  70  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  73  82  72  87 /  20  30  80  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  73  83  71  88 /  20  40  80  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 240905
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND AN MCV BETWEEN
VICTORIA AND SAN ANTONIO ARE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG I-35 NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH
198 TO EXPIRE. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
FURTHER EAST. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT DUE TO DECREASED PWS
AND INCREASED STABILITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS ON MONDAY. AIRMASS RESETS AS PWS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES
WITH CAPES AND SHEAR INCREASING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ALLOWING FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  72  82  68  87 /  50  40  80  60  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  71  82  68  87 /  60  40  80  60  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  72  82  70  87 /  40  40  80  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  70  80  68  85 /  30  30  80  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  70  89  68  90 /  20  20  60  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  71  81  69  86 /  50  30  80  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  71  83  70  87 /  20  30  80  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  72  82  69  86 /  40  40  80  60  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  73  83  72  87 /  90  50  80  70  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  73  82  72  87 /  20  30  80  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  73  83  71  88 /  20  40  80  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 240905
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND AN MCV BETWEEN
VICTORIA AND SAN ANTONIO ARE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG I-35 NORTHEAST OF
SAN ANTONIO TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES AND HAVE CANCELLED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING LESS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH
198 TO EXPIRE. EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LINGERS
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HAVE CONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
FURTHER EAST. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL TONIGHT DUE TO DECREASED PWS
AND INCREASED STABILITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS ON MONDAY. AIRMASS RESETS AS PWS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES
WITH CAPES AND SHEAR INCREASING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.
ZONAL FLOW TAKES HOLD FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ALLOWING FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  72  82  68  87 /  50  40  80  60  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  71  82  68  87 /  60  40  80  60  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  72  82  70  87 /  40  40  80  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  70  80  68  85 /  30  30  80  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           91  70  89  68  90 /  20  20  60  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  71  81  69  86 /  50  30  80  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  71  83  70  87 /  20  30  80  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  72  82  69  86 /  40  40  80  60  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   81  73  83  72  87 /  90  50  80  70  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  73  82  72  87 /  20  30  80  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  73  83  71  88 /  20  40  80  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KCRP 240856
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
356 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MORNING CONVECTION NOW JUST
ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAKENING MESO VORTEX JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOULD LIFT THE PRECIP OUT OF THE REGION IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT KIND OF
RECOVERY THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DO DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORNING
CONVECTION HAS PROBABLY CUT CHANCES THAT WE/LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL BEND WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE TIME TO
RECOVER FROM THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. MOST MESO MODELS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH DRY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS THEN SET FOR TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL PULL
THAT SHORTWAVE A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS. THINK WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS...BUT BEST CHANCE
WILL BE IN NORTHERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE A BIG CHALLENGE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
TODAY. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS OUT WEST...AS DRY LINE MAY MOVE INTO
THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING MOISTURE AND ALLOWING TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE 90S. HAVE LOWER TO MID 80S EAST...BUT IF CLOUDS
DO BREAK UP AND RAIN DOESNT REDEVELOP...COULD GET WARMER THAN
THIS.

WILL CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST WITH LLJ
CONTINUING. HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHOULD REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF PROG
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...THE FOREGOING MODELS PROG THE UPPER PATTERN TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL CONUS IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGD TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD
AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA THURSDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY. FURTHER...THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT A QUASI-
STATIONARY APPROXIMATELY E-W BNDRY/TROF ACRS THE CWA/MSA DRG THE
PERIOD. THUS...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TUESDAY WL DECREASE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC PROG PWAT VALUES TO DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE BNDRY/NEAR NORMAL
PWAT VALUES WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WL CONTRIBUTE TO SCT CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  77  84  77  84  /  70  50  70  50  40
VICTORIA          83  74  83  73  83  /  80  60  80  60  40
LAREDO            90  74  91  75  90  /  20  30  40  40  30
ALICE             87  75  86  76  86  /  60  40  70  50  30
ROCKPORT          82  78  82  77  82  /  80  60  70  60  40
COTULLA           90  73  88  72  88  /  30  30  70  40  30
KINGSVILLE        87  77  86  77  85  /  60  50  70  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       83  79  83  78  82  /  80  60  70  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 240856
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
356 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MORNING CONVECTION NOW JUST
ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAKENING MESO VORTEX JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOULD LIFT THE PRECIP OUT OF THE REGION IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT KIND OF
RECOVERY THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DO DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORNING
CONVECTION HAS PROBABLY CUT CHANCES THAT WE/LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL BEND WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE TIME TO
RECOVER FROM THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. MOST MESO MODELS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH DRY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS THEN SET FOR TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL PULL
THAT SHORTWAVE A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS. THINK WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS...BUT BEST CHANCE
WILL BE IN NORTHERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE A BIG CHALLENGE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
TODAY. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS OUT WEST...AS DRY LINE MAY MOVE INTO
THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING MOISTURE AND ALLOWING TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE 90S. HAVE LOWER TO MID 80S EAST...BUT IF CLOUDS
DO BREAK UP AND RAIN DOESNT REDEVELOP...COULD GET WARMER THAN
THIS.

WILL CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST WITH LLJ
CONTINUING. HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHOULD REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF PROG
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...THE FOREGOING MODELS PROG THE UPPER PATTERN TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL CONUS IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGD TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD
AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA THURSDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY. FURTHER...THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT A QUASI-
STATIONARY APPROXIMATELY E-W BNDRY/TROF ACRS THE CWA/MSA DRG THE
PERIOD. THUS...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TUESDAY WL DECREASE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC PROG PWAT VALUES TO DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE BNDRY/NEAR NORMAL
PWAT VALUES WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WL CONTRIBUTE TO SCT CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  77  84  77  84  /  70  50  70  50  40
VICTORIA          83  74  83  73  83  /  80  60  80  60  40
LAREDO            90  74  91  75  90  /  20  30  40  40  30
ALICE             87  75  86  76  86  /  60  40  70  50  30
ROCKPORT          82  78  82  77  82  /  80  60  70  60  40
COTULLA           90  73  88  72  88  /  30  30  70  40  30
KINGSVILLE        87  77  86  77  85  /  60  50  70  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       83  79  83  78  82  /  80  60  70  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 240856
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
356 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MORNING CONVECTION NOW JUST
ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAKENING MESO VORTEX JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOULD LIFT THE PRECIP OUT OF THE REGION IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT KIND OF
RECOVERY THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DO DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORNING
CONVECTION HAS PROBABLY CUT CHANCES THAT WE/LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL BEND WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE TIME TO
RECOVER FROM THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. MOST MESO MODELS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH DRY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS THEN SET FOR TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL PULL
THAT SHORTWAVE A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS. THINK WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS...BUT BEST CHANCE
WILL BE IN NORTHERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE A BIG CHALLENGE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
TODAY. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS OUT WEST...AS DRY LINE MAY MOVE INTO
THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING MOISTURE AND ALLOWING TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE 90S. HAVE LOWER TO MID 80S EAST...BUT IF CLOUDS
DO BREAK UP AND RAIN DOESNT REDEVELOP...COULD GET WARMER THAN
THIS.

WILL CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST WITH LLJ
CONTINUING. HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHOULD REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF PROG
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...THE FOREGOING MODELS PROG THE UPPER PATTERN TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL CONUS IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGD TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD
AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA THURSDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY. FURTHER...THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT A QUASI-
STATIONARY APPROXIMATELY E-W BNDRY/TROF ACRS THE CWA/MSA DRG THE
PERIOD. THUS...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TUESDAY WL DECREASE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC PROG PWAT VALUES TO DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE BNDRY/NEAR NORMAL
PWAT VALUES WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WL CONTRIBUTE TO SCT CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  77  84  77  84  /  70  50  70  50  40
VICTORIA          83  74  83  73  83  /  80  60  80  60  40
LAREDO            90  74  91  75  90  /  20  30  40  40  30
ALICE             87  75  86  76  86  /  60  40  70  50  30
ROCKPORT          82  78  82  77  82  /  80  60  70  60  40
COTULLA           90  73  88  72  88  /  30  30  70  40  30
KINGSVILLE        87  77  86  77  85  /  60  50  70  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       83  79  83  78  82  /  80  60  70  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 240856
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
356 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MORNING CONVECTION NOW JUST
ALONG THE COAST WITH WEAKENING MESO VORTEX JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOULD LIFT THE PRECIP OUT OF THE REGION IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE QUESTION THEN TURNS TO WHAT KIND OF
RECOVERY THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DO DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORNING
CONVECTION HAS PROBABLY CUT CHANCES THAT WE/LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL BEND WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE TIME TO
RECOVER FROM THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. MOST MESO MODELS REMAIN PRETTY MUCH DRY THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS THEN SET FOR TOMORROW...BUT AS THE
PARENT UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL PULL
THAT SHORTWAVE A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS. THINK WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS...BUT BEST CHANCE
WILL BE IN NORTHERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE A BIG CHALLENGE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
TODAY. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS OUT WEST...AS DRY LINE MAY MOVE INTO
THESE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING MOISTURE AND ALLOWING TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE 90S. HAVE LOWER TO MID 80S EAST...BUT IF CLOUDS
DO BREAK UP AND RAIN DOESNT REDEVELOP...COULD GET WARMER THAN
THIS.

WILL CONTINUE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST WITH LLJ
CONTINUING. HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHOULD REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF PROG
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
AFTERWARD...THE FOREGOING MODELS PROG THE UPPER PATTERN TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CNTRL CONUS IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGD TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD
AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE CWA/MSA THURSDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY. FURTHER...THE GFS MSLP ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICT A QUASI-
STATIONARY APPROXIMATELY E-W BNDRY/TROF ACRS THE CWA/MSA DRG THE
PERIOD. THUS...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TUESDAY WL DECREASE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC PROG PWAT VALUES TO DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE BNDRY/NEAR NORMAL
PWAT VALUES WL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. EXPECT THAT INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WL CONTRIBUTE TO SCT CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  77  84  77  84  /  70  50  70  50  40
VICTORIA          83  74  83  73  83  /  80  60  80  60  40
LAREDO            90  74  91  75  90  /  20  30  40  40  30
ALICE             87  75  86  76  86  /  60  40  70  50  30
ROCKPORT          82  78  82  77  82  /  80  60  70  60  40
COTULLA           90  73  88  72  88  /  30  30  70  40  30
KINGSVILLE        87  77  86  77  85  /  60  50  70  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       83  79  83  78  82  /  80  60  70  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM



000
FXUS64 KFWD 240819
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TORNADO WATCH 197 HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AN MCV...WHICH PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AS IT
LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE
RED RIVER IN A FEW HOURS...PROVIDING BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND AN
ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
DALLAS-FORT WORTH. A SECOND MCV CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PALESTINE AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO TORNADO WATCH 200 FOR A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 4
AM.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF OUR 2 MESOSCALE SYSTEMS IS
PROVIDING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND
APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. EITHER WAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS
WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSPIRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BEING KEPT ON THOSE DAYS DUE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
CONCERNS...PERIODS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A MCV /MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX/ SOUTHWEST OF KACT AT 05Z...
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THUS HAVE KEPT TAFS GENERALLY MVFR WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 10Z....AND VCTS THROUGH 14Z. TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW IS DIFFICULT...SOME HAVE
PLACED VCSH IN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BUT LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE CEILINGS FALL
BACK TO MVFR BY 04Z.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  68  84  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
WACO, TX              79  69  80  67  86 /  80  40  60  40  20
PARIS, TX             75  67  82  65  82 /  90  50  60  50  20
DENTON, TX            77  66  84  66  84 /  80  40  50  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  67  84  66  83 /  80  50  60  50  20
DALLAS, TX            79  68  85  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
TERRELL, TX           78  69  82  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
CORSICANA, TX         78  70  83  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            79  69  81  67  86 /  70  30  60  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  67  82  64  85 /  60  30  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 240819
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TORNADO WATCH 197 HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AN MCV...WHICH PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AS IT
LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE
RED RIVER IN A FEW HOURS...PROVIDING BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND AN
ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
DALLAS-FORT WORTH. A SECOND MCV CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PALESTINE AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO TORNADO WATCH 200 FOR A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 4
AM.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF OUR 2 MESOSCALE SYSTEMS IS
PROVIDING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND
APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. EITHER WAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS
WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSPIRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BEING KEPT ON THOSE DAYS DUE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
CONCERNS...PERIODS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A MCV /MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX/ SOUTHWEST OF KACT AT 05Z...
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THUS HAVE KEPT TAFS GENERALLY MVFR WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 10Z....AND VCTS THROUGH 14Z. TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW IS DIFFICULT...SOME HAVE
PLACED VCSH IN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BUT LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE CEILINGS FALL
BACK TO MVFR BY 04Z.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  68  84  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
WACO, TX              79  69  80  67  86 /  80  40  60  40  20
PARIS, TX             75  67  82  65  82 /  90  50  60  50  20
DENTON, TX            77  66  84  66  84 /  80  40  50  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  67  84  66  83 /  80  50  60  50  20
DALLAS, TX            79  68  85  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
TERRELL, TX           78  69  82  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
CORSICANA, TX         78  70  83  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            79  69  81  67  86 /  70  30  60  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  67  82  64  85 /  60  30  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 240819
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO PRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND TORNADO WATCH 197 HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION
IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AN MCV...WHICH PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AS IT
LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS THE
RED RIVER IN A FEW HOURS...PROVIDING BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN AND AN
ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
DALLAS-FORT WORTH. A SECOND MCV CAN BE SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PALESTINE AREA. WE WILL HOLD ONTO TORNADO WATCH 200 FOR A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 4
AM.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF OUR 2 MESOSCALE SYSTEMS IS
PROVIDING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION AND
APPEARS TO CURRENTLY BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
STRONG ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WEST TEXAS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY...BECAUSE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
EVENT TO MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. EITHER WAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR MEMORIAL DAY PLANS
WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSPIRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES BEING KEPT ON THOSE DAYS DUE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
CONCERNS...PERIODS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A MCV /MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX/ SOUTHWEST OF KACT AT 05Z...
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THUS HAVE KEPT TAFS GENERALLY MVFR WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 10Z....AND VCTS THROUGH 14Z. TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW IS DIFFICULT...SOME HAVE
PLACED VCSH IN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BUT LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE CEILINGS FALL
BACK TO MVFR BY 04Z.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  68  84  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
WACO, TX              79  69  80  67  86 /  80  40  60  40  20
PARIS, TX             75  67  82  65  82 /  90  50  60  50  20
DENTON, TX            77  66  84  66  84 /  80  40  50  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  67  84  66  83 /  80  50  60  50  20
DALLAS, TX            79  68  85  66  85 /  80  40  60  50  20
TERRELL, TX           78  69  82  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
CORSICANA, TX         78  70  83  67  84 /  90  40  60  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            79  69  81  67  86 /  70  30  60  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     79  67  82  64  85 /  60  30  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMAF 240641
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few showers/thunderstorms continue across southwest Texas
tonight, and could impact KFST within the first couple of hours of
the TAF period, resulting in brief reductions in visibility due to
heavy rainfall. The storms look to remain south of other TAF sites
tonight. One other concern is that MVFR fog/low ceiling
development, mainly affecting KMAF, KINK, and KHOB late tonight
and early Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
all TAF sites after 12Z Sunday, with winds veering to the
southwest. Breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon,
with some gusts to around 20 kt possible, though gusts will
rapidly diminish after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast.

DISCUSSION...
Updated zones/grids as Tornado Watch has expired. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect tonight with redevelopment of rain
possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 240641
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few showers/thunderstorms continue across southwest Texas
tonight, and could impact KFST within the first couple of hours of
the TAF period, resulting in brief reductions in visibility due to
heavy rainfall. The storms look to remain south of other TAF sites
tonight. One other concern is that MVFR fog/low ceiling
development, mainly affecting KMAF, KINK, and KHOB late tonight
and early Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
all TAF sites after 12Z Sunday, with winds veering to the
southwest. Breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon,
with some gusts to around 20 kt possible, though gusts will
rapidly diminish after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast.

DISCUSSION...
Updated zones/grids as Tornado Watch has expired. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect tonight with redevelopment of rain
possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 240641
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few showers/thunderstorms continue across southwest Texas
tonight, and could impact KFST within the first couple of hours of
the TAF period, resulting in brief reductions in visibility due to
heavy rainfall. The storms look to remain south of other TAF sites
tonight. One other concern is that MVFR fog/low ceiling
development, mainly affecting KMAF, KINK, and KHOB late tonight
and early Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
all TAF sites after 12Z Sunday, with winds veering to the
southwest. Breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon,
with some gusts to around 20 kt possible, though gusts will
rapidly diminish after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast.

DISCUSSION...
Updated zones/grids as Tornado Watch has expired. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect tonight with redevelopment of rain
possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 240641
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few showers/thunderstorms continue across southwest Texas
tonight, and could impact KFST within the first couple of hours of
the TAF period, resulting in brief reductions in visibility due to
heavy rainfall. The storms look to remain south of other TAF sites
tonight. One other concern is that MVFR fog/low ceiling
development, mainly affecting KMAF, KINK, and KHOB late tonight
and early Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
all TAF sites after 12Z Sunday, with winds veering to the
southwest. Breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon,
with some gusts to around 20 kt possible, though gusts will
rapidly diminish after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast.

DISCUSSION...
Updated zones/grids as Tornado Watch has expired. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect tonight with redevelopment of rain
possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 240614
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
114 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER AUS TEMPORARILY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
REDEVELOP OVER SAT/SSF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. TSRA SHOULD BE MORE
ISOLATED AROUND DRT AND WILL KEEP ONLY A MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING THROUGH THE
HILL COUNTRY SHOULD IMPACT SAT/SSF IN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND IN
THE AUS AREA AS LATE AS 11Z. SOME WEAKENING OF THESE CELLS MAY
DEVELOP AS THEY MOVE INTO DOWNDRAFT INFLUENCED AIR ALONG I-35. BY
12Z CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 WITH MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY INCREASED STABILITY
BY MIDDAY. WILL LEAVE OUT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM THREAT FOR
NOW AND FOCUS ON THE MORE LIKELY EXPECTATION FOR LOWERING CIGS
TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS SHAPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ON SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS IS THE START OF A LARGE LINEAR MCS THAT ALL OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR
THIS MCS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH
THE MORNING DRT AND CRP SOUNDINGS BOTH HAVING 2000 - 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
BREAKDOWN THE THREATS AND THE TIME PERIODS IN THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AFD.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP
A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS CONTINUES TO GET EARLIER. THE NSSL WRF
AND ARM BOTH HAVE THE LINE APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR AND NMM ALL SAY THAT
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 9PM AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE EARLIER
TIMING IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
ONTO 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION. THIS...ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TODAY...AND THE FACT THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED WILL LEAD TO
THE THREAT OF BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. WHILE CONVECTION GROUPING
TOGETHER LIKE THIS TYPICAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
A LITTLE BIT LESS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRST DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE HRRR ACTUAL SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SECTIONS BEING SHOWN IN THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WINDS PROFILES TURN
WITH HEIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THOSE OUT AND
ABOUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON LOCAL RIVERS
AND LAKES...MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

AS WE GET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS NOW
SHOW THE LINE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA BY 09Z TO 12Z (4 TO 7 AM).
BEHIND THE LINE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT WORKED OVER FROM
THE NIGHT OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 3000 J/KG
OF CAPE...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAYS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE ARM/NMM/NSSL WRF DO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

TO SUMMARIZE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. THE LINE SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXIST WITH THE LINE. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEATHER AWARE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ON
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND
STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM AROUND LUNCH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF (FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGEST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WOULD POSSIBLE NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
RETURN ON MONDAY. SPC HAS THE AREA CURRENTLY BLANKETED IN A DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORM
MODE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AS CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR MCS STORM MODES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY CLOSELY. STRESSING
AGAIN...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE THEY ARE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TUESDAY IS MORE ZONAL WITH SOME SLIGHT
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER REDUCTION IN POP
CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST RETURNING THE AREA TO A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  70  81  69  87 /  80  40  80  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  69  81  68  87 /  80  40  80  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  69  81  70  87 /  70  40  80  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  69  80  67  85 /  60  30  80  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  71  89  69  90 /  20  20  60  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        80  69  80  68  86 /  70  30  80  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  70  83  69  87 /  50  30  80  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  69  81  69  86 /  80  40  80  60  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  71  82  71  86 /  90  50  80  70  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  71  82  71  87 /  60  30  80  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  71  83  71  88 /  60  40  80  50  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE



000
FXUS64 KEWX 240614
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
114 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER AUS TEMPORARILY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
REDEVELOP OVER SAT/SSF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. TSRA SHOULD BE MORE
ISOLATED AROUND DRT AND WILL KEEP ONLY A MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING THROUGH THE
HILL COUNTRY SHOULD IMPACT SAT/SSF IN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND IN
THE AUS AREA AS LATE AS 11Z. SOME WEAKENING OF THESE CELLS MAY
DEVELOP AS THEY MOVE INTO DOWNDRAFT INFLUENCED AIR ALONG I-35. BY
12Z CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 WITH MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY INCREASED STABILITY
BY MIDDAY. WILL LEAVE OUT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM THREAT FOR
NOW AND FOCUS ON THE MORE LIKELY EXPECTATION FOR LOWERING CIGS
TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS SHAPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ON SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS IS THE START OF A LARGE LINEAR MCS THAT ALL OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR
THIS MCS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH
THE MORNING DRT AND CRP SOUNDINGS BOTH HAVING 2000 - 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
BREAKDOWN THE THREATS AND THE TIME PERIODS IN THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AFD.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP
A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS CONTINUES TO GET EARLIER. THE NSSL WRF
AND ARM BOTH HAVE THE LINE APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR AND NMM ALL SAY THAT
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 9PM AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE EARLIER
TIMING IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
ONTO 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION. THIS...ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TODAY...AND THE FACT THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED WILL LEAD TO
THE THREAT OF BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. WHILE CONVECTION GROUPING
TOGETHER LIKE THIS TYPICAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
A LITTLE BIT LESS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRST DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE HRRR ACTUAL SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SECTIONS BEING SHOWN IN THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WINDS PROFILES TURN
WITH HEIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THOSE OUT AND
ABOUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON LOCAL RIVERS
AND LAKES...MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

AS WE GET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS NOW
SHOW THE LINE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA BY 09Z TO 12Z (4 TO 7 AM).
BEHIND THE LINE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT WORKED OVER FROM
THE NIGHT OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 3000 J/KG
OF CAPE...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAYS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE ARM/NMM/NSSL WRF DO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

TO SUMMARIZE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. THE LINE SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXIST WITH THE LINE. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEATHER AWARE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ON
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND
STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM AROUND LUNCH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF (FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGEST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WOULD POSSIBLE NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
RETURN ON MONDAY. SPC HAS THE AREA CURRENTLY BLANKETED IN A DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORM
MODE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AS CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR MCS STORM MODES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY CLOSELY. STRESSING
AGAIN...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE THEY ARE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TUESDAY IS MORE ZONAL WITH SOME SLIGHT
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER REDUCTION IN POP
CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST RETURNING THE AREA TO A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  70  81  69  87 /  80  40  80  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  69  81  68  87 /  80  40  80  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  69  81  70  87 /  70  40  80  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  69  80  67  85 /  60  30  80  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  71  89  69  90 /  20  20  60  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        80  69  80  68  86 /  70  30  80  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  70  83  69  87 /  50  30  80  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  69  81  69  86 /  80  40  80  60  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  71  82  71  86 /  90  50  80  70  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  71  82  71  87 /  60  30  80  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  71  83  71  88 /  60  40  80  50  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE




000
FXUS64 KEWX 240614
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
114 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER AUS TEMPORARILY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
REDEVELOP OVER SAT/SSF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. TSRA SHOULD BE MORE
ISOLATED AROUND DRT AND WILL KEEP ONLY A MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING THROUGH THE
HILL COUNTRY SHOULD IMPACT SAT/SSF IN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND IN
THE AUS AREA AS LATE AS 11Z. SOME WEAKENING OF THESE CELLS MAY
DEVELOP AS THEY MOVE INTO DOWNDRAFT INFLUENCED AIR ALONG I-35. BY
12Z CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 WITH MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY INCREASED STABILITY
BY MIDDAY. WILL LEAVE OUT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM THREAT FOR
NOW AND FOCUS ON THE MORE LIKELY EXPECTATION FOR LOWERING CIGS
TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS SHAPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ON SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS IS THE START OF A LARGE LINEAR MCS THAT ALL OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR
THIS MCS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH
THE MORNING DRT AND CRP SOUNDINGS BOTH HAVING 2000 - 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
BREAKDOWN THE THREATS AND THE TIME PERIODS IN THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AFD.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP
A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS CONTINUES TO GET EARLIER. THE NSSL WRF
AND ARM BOTH HAVE THE LINE APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR AND NMM ALL SAY THAT
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 9PM AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE EARLIER
TIMING IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
ONTO 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION. THIS...ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TODAY...AND THE FACT THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED WILL LEAD TO
THE THREAT OF BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. WHILE CONVECTION GROUPING
TOGETHER LIKE THIS TYPICAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
A LITTLE BIT LESS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRST DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE HRRR ACTUAL SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SECTIONS BEING SHOWN IN THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WINDS PROFILES TURN
WITH HEIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THOSE OUT AND
ABOUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON LOCAL RIVERS
AND LAKES...MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

AS WE GET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS NOW
SHOW THE LINE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA BY 09Z TO 12Z (4 TO 7 AM).
BEHIND THE LINE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT WORKED OVER FROM
THE NIGHT OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 3000 J/KG
OF CAPE...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAYS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE ARM/NMM/NSSL WRF DO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

TO SUMMARIZE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. THE LINE SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXIST WITH THE LINE. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEATHER AWARE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ON
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND
STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM AROUND LUNCH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF (FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGEST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WOULD POSSIBLE NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
RETURN ON MONDAY. SPC HAS THE AREA CURRENTLY BLANKETED IN A DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORM
MODE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AS CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR MCS STORM MODES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY CLOSELY. STRESSING
AGAIN...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE THEY ARE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TUESDAY IS MORE ZONAL WITH SOME SLIGHT
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER REDUCTION IN POP
CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST RETURNING THE AREA TO A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  70  81  69  87 /  80  40  80  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  69  81  68  87 /  80  40  80  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  69  81  70  87 /  70  40  80  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  69  80  67  85 /  60  30  80  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  71  89  69  90 /  20  20  60  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        80  69  80  68  86 /  70  30  80  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  70  83  69  87 /  50  30  80  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  69  81  69  86 /  80  40  80  60  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  71  82  71  86 /  90  50  80  70  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  71  82  71  87 /  60  30  80  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  71  83  71  88 /  60  40  80  50  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE



000
FXUS64 KEWX 240614
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
114 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER AUS TEMPORARILY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
REDEVELOP OVER SAT/SSF FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. TSRA SHOULD BE MORE
ISOLATED AROUND DRT AND WILL KEEP ONLY A MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING THROUGH THE
HILL COUNTRY SHOULD IMPACT SAT/SSF IN THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS AND IN
THE AUS AREA AS LATE AS 11Z. SOME WEAKENING OF THESE CELLS MAY
DEVELOP AS THEY MOVE INTO DOWNDRAFT INFLUENCED AIR ALONG I-35. BY
12Z CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-35 WITH MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY INCREASED STABILITY
BY MIDDAY. WILL LEAVE OUT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORM THREAT FOR
NOW AND FOCUS ON THE MORE LIKELY EXPECTATION FOR LOWERING CIGS
TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS SHAPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ON SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS IS THE START OF A LARGE LINEAR MCS THAT ALL OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR
THIS MCS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH
THE MORNING DRT AND CRP SOUNDINGS BOTH HAVING 2000 - 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
BREAKDOWN THE THREATS AND THE TIME PERIODS IN THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AFD.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP
A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS CONTINUES TO GET EARLIER. THE NSSL WRF
AND ARM BOTH HAVE THE LINE APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR AND NMM ALL SAY THAT
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 9PM AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE EARLIER
TIMING IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
ONTO 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION. THIS...ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TODAY...AND THE FACT THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED WILL LEAD TO
THE THREAT OF BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. WHILE CONVECTION GROUPING
TOGETHER LIKE THIS TYPICAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
A LITTLE BIT LESS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRST DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE HRRR ACTUAL SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SECTIONS BEING SHOWN IN THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WINDS PROFILES TURN
WITH HEIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THOSE OUT AND
ABOUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON LOCAL RIVERS
AND LAKES...MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

AS WE GET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS NOW
SHOW THE LINE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA BY 09Z TO 12Z (4 TO 7 AM).
BEHIND THE LINE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT WORKED OVER FROM
THE NIGHT OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 3000 J/KG
OF CAPE...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAYS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE ARM/NMM/NSSL WRF DO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

TO SUMMARIZE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. THE LINE SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXIST WITH THE LINE. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEATHER AWARE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ON
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND
STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM AROUND LUNCH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF (FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGEST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WOULD POSSIBLE NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
RETURN ON MONDAY. SPC HAS THE AREA CURRENTLY BLANKETED IN A DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORM
MODE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AS CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR MCS STORM MODES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY CLOSELY. STRESSING
AGAIN...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE THEY ARE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TUESDAY IS MORE ZONAL WITH SOME SLIGHT
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER REDUCTION IN POP
CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST RETURNING THE AREA TO A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  70  81  69  87 /  80  40  80  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  69  81  68  87 /  80  40  80  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  69  81  70  87 /  70  40  80  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  69  80  67  85 /  60  30  80  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  71  89  69  90 /  20  20  60  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        80  69  80  68  86 /  70  30  80  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  70  83  69  87 /  50  30  80  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  69  81  69  86 /  80  40  80  60  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  71  82  71  86 /  90  50  80  70  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  71  82  71  87 /  60  30  80  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  71  83  71  88 /  60  40  80  50  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE




000
FXUS64 KBRO 240559 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION AT MFE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND APPROACH HRL AND BRO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MENTION
A TEMPO AT ALL RIO GRANDE VALLEY TAF SITES FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR AND
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT INCLUDE FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...BRO RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
HEBBRONVILLE TO NEAR FALCON DAM. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 4 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTIVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST MOVE WEST TO EAST
INTO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AERODROMES MAINLY AFTER 06Z...WILL MENTION VCTS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 08Z MFE...09Z HRL AND
10Z AT BRO FOR TSRA...GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM CDT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A ROUGHLY
BAFFIN BAY TO SULLIVAN CITY LINE. WITH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NEARLY ALL OF
THE BRO CWFA (EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY) IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INITIATOR FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOOUSLY-MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ONE FINAL 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX ON MON
WHICH WILL GIVE THE STATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF CONV. MEAN RH
FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY BREAK MAINTAINING THE
CONV POTENTIAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL GET IT RIGHT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE WETTER OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODEL SETS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MOST THE CONV REMAINING CONCENTRATED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV AND THE
REST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF SPREAD BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND AS AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. ONCE THIS LAST 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE STATE 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED AND THURS DIMINISHING THE CONV POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
SHALLOWER 500 MB TROUGH THEN PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND SAT WHICH MAY BOOST UP OUR
CONV POTENTIAL A BIT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME 20 TO 30 %
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD STRATEGY. WITH
LINGER CONV POTENTIAL ON MON WILL UNDERCUT MEX/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HERE. THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE GFS MEX
MOS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONV POTENTIAL ON MON.
CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE RAIN CHCS IS ONLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE
SERIOUS MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14
CDT/19 UTC. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTERACTING...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PGF. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL
DAY. THE PGF WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS.

HYDROLOGY...RECENT WATER RELEASES FROM THE EL CUCHILLO AND MARTE
R. GOMEZ RESERVOIRS ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIO
GRANDE. CURRENTLY THE RIVER STAGE AT THE SAN BENITO GAUGE ON THE
RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SAN BENITO GAUGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 47.4 FEET ON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE AT THE
SAN BENITO GAUGE IS 55.0 FEET. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR OFFICE
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV ON THE RIVERS/LAKES SECTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 240559 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION AT MFE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND APPROACH HRL AND BRO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MENTION
A TEMPO AT ALL RIO GRANDE VALLEY TAF SITES FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR AND
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT INCLUDE FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...BRO RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
HEBBRONVILLE TO NEAR FALCON DAM. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 4 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTIVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST MOVE WEST TO EAST
INTO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AERODROMES MAINLY AFTER 06Z...WILL MENTION VCTS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 08Z MFE...09Z HRL AND
10Z AT BRO FOR TSRA...GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM CDT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A ROUGHLY
BAFFIN BAY TO SULLIVAN CITY LINE. WITH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NEARLY ALL OF
THE BRO CWFA (EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY) IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INITIATOR FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOOUSLY-MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ONE FINAL 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX ON MON
WHICH WILL GIVE THE STATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF CONV. MEAN RH
FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY BREAK MAINTAINING THE
CONV POTENTIAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL GET IT RIGHT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE WETTER OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODEL SETS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MOST THE CONV REMAINING CONCENTRATED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV AND THE
REST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF SPREAD BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND AS AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. ONCE THIS LAST 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE STATE 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED AND THURS DIMINISHING THE CONV POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
SHALLOWER 500 MB TROUGH THEN PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND SAT WHICH MAY BOOST UP OUR
CONV POTENTIAL A BIT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME 20 TO 30 %
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD STRATEGY. WITH
LINGER CONV POTENTIAL ON MON WILL UNDERCUT MEX/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HERE. THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE GFS MEX
MOS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONV POTENTIAL ON MON.
CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE RAIN CHCS IS ONLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE
SERIOUS MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14
CDT/19 UTC. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTERACTING...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PGF. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL
DAY. THE PGF WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS.

HYDROLOGY...RECENT WATER RELEASES FROM THE EL CUCHILLO AND MARTE
R. GOMEZ RESERVOIRS ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIO
GRANDE. CURRENTLY THE RIVER STAGE AT THE SAN BENITO GAUGE ON THE
RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SAN BENITO GAUGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 47.4 FEET ON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE AT THE
SAN BENITO GAUGE IS 55.0 FEET. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR OFFICE
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV ON THE RIVERS/LAKES SECTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 240559 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION AT MFE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND APPROACH HRL AND BRO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MENTION
A TEMPO AT ALL RIO GRANDE VALLEY TAF SITES FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR AND
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT INCLUDE FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...BRO RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
HEBBRONVILLE TO NEAR FALCON DAM. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 4 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTIVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST MOVE WEST TO EAST
INTO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AERODROMES MAINLY AFTER 06Z...WILL MENTION VCTS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 08Z MFE...09Z HRL AND
10Z AT BRO FOR TSRA...GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM CDT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A ROUGHLY
BAFFIN BAY TO SULLIVAN CITY LINE. WITH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NEARLY ALL OF
THE BRO CWFA (EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY) IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INITIATOR FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOOUSLY-MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ONE FINAL 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX ON MON
WHICH WILL GIVE THE STATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF CONV. MEAN RH
FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY BREAK MAINTAINING THE
CONV POTENTIAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL GET IT RIGHT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE WETTER OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODEL SETS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MOST THE CONV REMAINING CONCENTRATED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV AND THE
REST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF SPREAD BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND AS AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. ONCE THIS LAST 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE STATE 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED AND THURS DIMINISHING THE CONV POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
SHALLOWER 500 MB TROUGH THEN PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND SAT WHICH MAY BOOST UP OUR
CONV POTENTIAL A BIT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME 20 TO 30 %
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD STRATEGY. WITH
LINGER CONV POTENTIAL ON MON WILL UNDERCUT MEX/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HERE. THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE GFS MEX
MOS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONV POTENTIAL ON MON.
CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE RAIN CHCS IS ONLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE
SERIOUS MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14
CDT/19 UTC. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTERACTING...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PGF. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL
DAY. THE PGF WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS.

HYDROLOGY...RECENT WATER RELEASES FROM THE EL CUCHILLO AND MARTE
R. GOMEZ RESERVOIRS ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIO
GRANDE. CURRENTLY THE RIVER STAGE AT THE SAN BENITO GAUGE ON THE
RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SAN BENITO GAUGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 47.4 FEET ON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE AT THE
SAN BENITO GAUGE IS 55.0 FEET. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR OFFICE
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV ON THE RIVERS/LAKES SECTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 240559 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION AT MFE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND APPROACH HRL AND BRO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MENTION
A TEMPO AT ALL RIO GRANDE VALLEY TAF SITES FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR AND
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT INCLUDE FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...BRO RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
HEBBRONVILLE TO NEAR FALCON DAM. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 4 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTIVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST MOVE WEST TO EAST
INTO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AERODROMES MAINLY AFTER 06Z...WILL MENTION VCTS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 08Z MFE...09Z HRL AND
10Z AT BRO FOR TSRA...GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM CDT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A ROUGHLY
BAFFIN BAY TO SULLIVAN CITY LINE. WITH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NEARLY ALL OF
THE BRO CWFA (EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY) IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INITIATOR FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOOUSLY-MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ONE FINAL 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX ON MON
WHICH WILL GIVE THE STATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF CONV. MEAN RH
FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY BREAK MAINTAINING THE
CONV POTENTIAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL GET IT RIGHT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE WETTER OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODEL SETS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MOST THE CONV REMAINING CONCENTRATED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV AND THE
REST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF SPREAD BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND AS AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. ONCE THIS LAST 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE STATE 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED AND THURS DIMINISHING THE CONV POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
SHALLOWER 500 MB TROUGH THEN PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND SAT WHICH MAY BOOST UP OUR
CONV POTENTIAL A BIT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME 20 TO 30 %
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD STRATEGY. WITH
LINGER CONV POTENTIAL ON MON WILL UNDERCUT MEX/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HERE. THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE GFS MEX
MOS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONV POTENTIAL ON MON.
CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE RAIN CHCS IS ONLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE
SERIOUS MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14
CDT/19 UTC. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTERACTING...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PGF. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL
DAY. THE PGF WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS.

HYDROLOGY...RECENT WATER RELEASES FROM THE EL CUCHILLO AND MARTE
R. GOMEZ RESERVOIRS ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIO
GRANDE. CURRENTLY THE RIVER STAGE AT THE SAN BENITO GAUGE ON THE
RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SAN BENITO GAUGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 47.4 FEET ON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE AT THE
SAN BENITO GAUGE IS 55.0 FEET. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR OFFICE
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV ON THE RIVERS/LAKES SECTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 240559 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION AT MFE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND APPROACH HRL AND BRO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MENTION
A TEMPO AT ALL RIO GRANDE VALLEY TAF SITES FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR AND
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT INCLUDE FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...BRO RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
HEBBRONVILLE TO NEAR FALCON DAM. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 4 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTIVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST MOVE WEST TO EAST
INTO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AERODROMES MAINLY AFTER 06Z...WILL MENTION VCTS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 08Z MFE...09Z HRL AND
10Z AT BRO FOR TSRA...GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM CDT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A ROUGHLY
BAFFIN BAY TO SULLIVAN CITY LINE. WITH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NEARLY ALL OF
THE BRO CWFA (EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY) IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INITIATOR FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOOUSLY-MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ONE FINAL 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX ON MON
WHICH WILL GIVE THE STATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF CONV. MEAN RH
FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY BREAK MAINTAINING THE
CONV POTENTIAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL GET IT RIGHT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE WETTER OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODEL SETS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MOST THE CONV REMAINING CONCENTRATED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV AND THE
REST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF SPREAD BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND AS AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. ONCE THIS LAST 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE STATE 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED AND THURS DIMINISHING THE CONV POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
SHALLOWER 500 MB TROUGH THEN PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND SAT WHICH MAY BOOST UP OUR
CONV POTENTIAL A BIT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME 20 TO 30 %
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD STRATEGY. WITH
LINGER CONV POTENTIAL ON MON WILL UNDERCUT MEX/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HERE. THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE GFS MEX
MOS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONV POTENTIAL ON MON.
CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE RAIN CHCS IS ONLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE
SERIOUS MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14
CDT/19 UTC. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTERACTING...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PGF. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL
DAY. THE PGF WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS.

HYDROLOGY...RECENT WATER RELEASES FROM THE EL CUCHILLO AND MARTE
R. GOMEZ RESERVOIRS ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIO
GRANDE. CURRENTLY THE RIVER STAGE AT THE SAN BENITO GAUGE ON THE
RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SAN BENITO GAUGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 47.4 FEET ON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE AT THE
SAN BENITO GAUGE IS 55.0 FEET. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR OFFICE
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV ON THE RIVERS/LAKES SECTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 240559 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION AT MFE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND APPROACH HRL AND BRO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MENTION
A TEMPO AT ALL RIO GRANDE VALLEY TAF SITES FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR AND
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT INCLUDE FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...BRO RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
HEBBRONVILLE TO NEAR FALCON DAM. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 4 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTIVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST MOVE WEST TO EAST
INTO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AERODROMES MAINLY AFTER 06Z...WILL MENTION VCTS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 08Z MFE...09Z HRL AND
10Z AT BRO FOR TSRA...GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM CDT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A ROUGHLY
BAFFIN BAY TO SULLIVAN CITY LINE. WITH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NEARLY ALL OF
THE BRO CWFA (EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY) IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INITIATOR FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOOUSLY-MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ONE FINAL 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX ON MON
WHICH WILL GIVE THE STATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF CONV. MEAN RH
FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY BREAK MAINTAINING THE
CONV POTENTIAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL GET IT RIGHT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE WETTER OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODEL SETS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MOST THE CONV REMAINING CONCENTRATED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV AND THE
REST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF SPREAD BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND AS AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. ONCE THIS LAST 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE STATE 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED AND THURS DIMINISHING THE CONV POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
SHALLOWER 500 MB TROUGH THEN PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND SAT WHICH MAY BOOST UP OUR
CONV POTENTIAL A BIT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME 20 TO 30 %
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD STRATEGY. WITH
LINGER CONV POTENTIAL ON MON WILL UNDERCUT MEX/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HERE. THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE GFS MEX
MOS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONV POTENTIAL ON MON.
CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE RAIN CHCS IS ONLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE
SERIOUS MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14
CDT/19 UTC. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTERACTING...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PGF. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL
DAY. THE PGF WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS.

HYDROLOGY...RECENT WATER RELEASES FROM THE EL CUCHILLO AND MARTE
R. GOMEZ RESERVOIRS ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIO
GRANDE. CURRENTLY THE RIVER STAGE AT THE SAN BENITO GAUGE ON THE
RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SAN BENITO GAUGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 47.4 FEET ON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE AT THE
SAN BENITO GAUGE IS 55.0 FEET. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR OFFICE
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV ON THE RIVERS/LAKES SECTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 240559 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION AT MFE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND APPROACH HRL AND BRO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MENTION
A TEMPO AT ALL RIO GRANDE VALLEY TAF SITES FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR AND
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT INCLUDE FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...BRO RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
HEBBRONVILLE TO NEAR FALCON DAM. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 4 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTIVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST MOVE WEST TO EAST
INTO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AERODROMES MAINLY AFTER 06Z...WILL MENTION VCTS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 08Z MFE...09Z HRL AND
10Z AT BRO FOR TSRA...GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM CDT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A ROUGHLY
BAFFIN BAY TO SULLIVAN CITY LINE. WITH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NEARLY ALL OF
THE BRO CWFA (EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY) IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INITIATOR FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOOUSLY-MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ONE FINAL 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX ON MON
WHICH WILL GIVE THE STATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF CONV. MEAN RH
FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY BREAK MAINTAINING THE
CONV POTENTIAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL GET IT RIGHT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE WETTER OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODEL SETS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MOST THE CONV REMAINING CONCENTRATED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV AND THE
REST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF SPREAD BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND AS AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. ONCE THIS LAST 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE STATE 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED AND THURS DIMINISHING THE CONV POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
SHALLOWER 500 MB TROUGH THEN PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND SAT WHICH MAY BOOST UP OUR
CONV POTENTIAL A BIT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME 20 TO 30 %
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD STRATEGY. WITH
LINGER CONV POTENTIAL ON MON WILL UNDERCUT MEX/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HERE. THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE GFS MEX
MOS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONV POTENTIAL ON MON.
CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE RAIN CHCS IS ONLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE
SERIOUS MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14
CDT/19 UTC. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTERACTING...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PGF. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL
DAY. THE PGF WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS.

HYDROLOGY...RECENT WATER RELEASES FROM THE EL CUCHILLO AND MARTE
R. GOMEZ RESERVOIRS ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIO
GRANDE. CURRENTLY THE RIVER STAGE AT THE SAN BENITO GAUGE ON THE
RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SAN BENITO GAUGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 47.4 FEET ON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE AT THE
SAN BENITO GAUGE IS 55.0 FEET. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR OFFICE
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV ON THE RIVERS/LAKES SECTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 240559 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION AT MFE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND APPROACH HRL AND BRO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MENTION
A TEMPO AT ALL RIO GRANDE VALLEY TAF SITES FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR AND
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT INCLUDE FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...BRO RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
HEBBRONVILLE TO NEAR FALCON DAM. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 4 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTIVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST MOVE WEST TO EAST
INTO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AERODROMES MAINLY AFTER 06Z...WILL MENTION VCTS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 08Z MFE...09Z HRL AND
10Z AT BRO FOR TSRA...GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM CDT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A ROUGHLY
BAFFIN BAY TO SULLIVAN CITY LINE. WITH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NEARLY ALL OF
THE BRO CWFA (EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY) IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INITIATOR FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOOUSLY-MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ONE FINAL 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX ON MON
WHICH WILL GIVE THE STATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF CONV. MEAN RH
FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY BREAK MAINTAINING THE
CONV POTENTIAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL GET IT RIGHT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE WETTER OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODEL SETS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MOST THE CONV REMAINING CONCENTRATED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV AND THE
REST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF SPREAD BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND AS AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. ONCE THIS LAST 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE STATE 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED AND THURS DIMINISHING THE CONV POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
SHALLOWER 500 MB TROUGH THEN PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND SAT WHICH MAY BOOST UP OUR
CONV POTENTIAL A BIT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME 20 TO 30 %
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD STRATEGY. WITH
LINGER CONV POTENTIAL ON MON WILL UNDERCUT MEX/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HERE. THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE GFS MEX
MOS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONV POTENTIAL ON MON.
CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE RAIN CHCS IS ONLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE
SERIOUS MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14
CDT/19 UTC. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTERACTING...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PGF. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL
DAY. THE PGF WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS.

HYDROLOGY...RECENT WATER RELEASES FROM THE EL CUCHILLO AND MARTE
R. GOMEZ RESERVOIRS ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIO
GRANDE. CURRENTLY THE RIVER STAGE AT THE SAN BENITO GAUGE ON THE
RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SAN BENITO GAUGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 47.4 FEET ON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE AT THE
SAN BENITO GAUGE IS 55.0 FEET. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR OFFICE
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV ON THE RIVERS/LAKES SECTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 240559
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION AT MFE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND APPROACH HRL AND BRO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MENTION
A TEMPO AT ALL RIO GRANDE VALLEY TAF SITES FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR AND
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT INCLUDE FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...BRO RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
HEBBRONVILLE TO NEAR FALCON DAM. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 4 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTIVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST MOVE WEST TO EAST
INTO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AERODROMES MAINLY AFTER 06Z...WILL MENTION VCTS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 08Z MFE...09Z HRL AND
10Z AT BRO FOR TSRA...GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM CDT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A ROUGHLY
BAFFIN BAY TO SULLIVAN CITY LINE. WITH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NEARLY ALL OF
THE BRO CWFA (EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY) IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INITIATOR FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOOUSLY-MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ONE FINAL 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX ON MON
WHICH WILL GIVE THE STATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF CONV. MEAN RH
FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY BREAK MAINTAINING THE
CONV POTENTIAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL GET IT RIGHT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE WETTER OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODEL SETS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MOST THE CONV REMAINING CONCENTRATED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV AND THE
REST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF SPREAD BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND AS AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. ONCE THIS LAST 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE STATE 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED AND THURS DIMINISHING THE CONV POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
SHALLOWER 500 MB TROUGH THEN PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND SAT WHICH MAY BOOST UP OUR
CONV POTENTIAL A BIT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME 20 TO 30 %
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD STRATEGY. WITH
LINGER CONV POTENTIAL ON MON WILL UNDERCUT MEX/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HERE. THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE GFS MEX
MOS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONV POTENTIAL ON MON.
CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE RAIN CHCS IS ONLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE
SERIOUS MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14
CDT/19 UTC. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTERACTING...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PGF. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL
DAY. THE PGF WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS.

HYDROLOGY...RECENT WATER RELEASES FROM THE EL CUCHILLO AND MARTE
R. GOMEZ RESERVOIRS ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIO
GRANDE. CURRENTLY THE RIVER STAGE AT THE SAN BENITO GAUGE ON THE
RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SAN BENITO GAUGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 47.4 FEET ON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE AT THE
SAN BENITO GAUGE IS 55.0 FEET. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR OFFICE
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV ON THE RIVERS/LAKES SECTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 240559
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION AT MFE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND APPROACH HRL AND BRO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MENTION
A TEMPO AT ALL RIO GRANDE VALLEY TAF SITES FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR AND
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT INCLUDE FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...BRO RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
HEBBRONVILLE TO NEAR FALCON DAM. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 4 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTIVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST MOVE WEST TO EAST
INTO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AERODROMES MAINLY AFTER 06Z...WILL MENTION VCTS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 08Z MFE...09Z HRL AND
10Z AT BRO FOR TSRA...GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA
WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM CDT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A ROUGHLY
BAFFIN BAY TO SULLIVAN CITY LINE. WITH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NEARLY ALL OF
THE BRO CWFA (EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY) IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INITIATOR FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOOUSLY-MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ONE FINAL 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX ON MON
WHICH WILL GIVE THE STATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF CONV. MEAN RH
FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY BREAK MAINTAINING THE
CONV POTENTIAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL GET IT RIGHT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE WETTER OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODEL SETS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MOST THE CONV REMAINING CONCENTRATED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV AND THE
REST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF SPREAD BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND AS AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. ONCE THIS LAST 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE STATE 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED AND THURS DIMINISHING THE CONV POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
SHALLOWER 500 MB TROUGH THEN PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND SAT WHICH MAY BOOST UP OUR
CONV POTENTIAL A BIT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME 20 TO 30 %
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD STRATEGY. WITH
LINGER CONV POTENTIAL ON MON WILL UNDERCUT MEX/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HERE. THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE GFS MEX
MOS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONV POTENTIAL ON MON.
CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE RAIN CHCS IS ONLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE
SERIOUS MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14
CDT/19 UTC. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTERACTING...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PGF. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL
DAY. THE PGF WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS.

HYDROLOGY...RECENT WATER RELEASES FROM THE EL CUCHILLO AND MARTE
R. GOMEZ RESERVOIRS ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIO
GRANDE. CURRENTLY THE RIVER STAGE AT THE SAN BENITO GAUGE ON THE
RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SAN BENITO GAUGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 47.4 FEET ON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE AT THE
SAN BENITO GAUGE IS 55.0 FEET. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR OFFICE
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV ON THE RIVERS/LAKES SECTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KHGX 240531
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE MOVED THROUGH CLL (WINDS GUSTED TO 31 KNOTS) AND ARE
HEADED TOWARD UTS. EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE BUILD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPERIENCING SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS BY 12Z.
NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
25/06Z TAFS HAVE PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED A BREAK AROUND
25/03Z...BUT BROUGHT SHRA BACK INTO THE IAH TAF DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS (25/09Z-25/12Z) IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM POSSIBLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS AND BOW ECHO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER HILL COUNTRY AND
NOW MAKING A BEELINE TOWARD NW COUNTIES. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS
INCORRECTLY WEAKENED THIS FEATURE. IT APPEARS MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO.

PATTERN IN GENERAL WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A STORMY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION... THE FLASH WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING TIME
(GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO) AROUND 4 AM FROM THE BURLESON TO
COLUMBUS TO MATAGORDA BAY AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE
WEATHER TOO.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  83  72  85  72 /  50  80  70  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  82  75  85  74 /  70  70  60  60  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  83  77  84  78 /  80  80  60  60  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 240531
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE MOVED THROUGH CLL (WINDS GUSTED TO 31 KNOTS) AND ARE
HEADED TOWARD UTS. EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE BUILD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPERIENCING SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS BY 12Z.
NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
25/06Z TAFS HAVE PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED A BREAK AROUND
25/03Z...BUT BROUGHT SHRA BACK INTO THE IAH TAF DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS (25/09Z-25/12Z) IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM POSSIBLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS AND BOW ECHO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER HILL COUNTRY AND
NOW MAKING A BEELINE TOWARD NW COUNTIES. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS
INCORRECTLY WEAKENED THIS FEATURE. IT APPEARS MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO.

PATTERN IN GENERAL WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A STORMY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION... THE FLASH WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING TIME
(GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO) AROUND 4 AM FROM THE BURLESON TO
COLUMBUS TO MATAGORDA BAY AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE
WEATHER TOO.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  83  72  85  72 /  50  80  70  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  82  75  85  74 /  70  70  60  60  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  83  77  84  78 /  80  80  60  60  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 240531
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE MOVED THROUGH CLL (WINDS GUSTED TO 31 KNOTS) AND ARE
HEADED TOWARD UTS. EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE BUILD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPERIENCING SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS BY 12Z.
NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
25/06Z TAFS HAVE PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED A BREAK AROUND
25/03Z...BUT BROUGHT SHRA BACK INTO THE IAH TAF DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS (25/09Z-25/12Z) IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM POSSIBLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS AND BOW ECHO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER HILL COUNTRY AND
NOW MAKING A BEELINE TOWARD NW COUNTIES. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS
INCORRECTLY WEAKENED THIS FEATURE. IT APPEARS MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO.

PATTERN IN GENERAL WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A STORMY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION... THE FLASH WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING TIME
(GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO) AROUND 4 AM FROM THE BURLESON TO
COLUMBUS TO MATAGORDA BAY AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE
WEATHER TOO.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  83  72  85  72 /  50  80  70  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  82  75  85  74 /  70  70  60  60  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  83  77  84  78 /  80  80  60  60  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 240531
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA HAVE MOVED THROUGH CLL (WINDS GUSTED TO 31 KNOTS) AND ARE
HEADED TOWARD UTS. EXPECT TO SEE COVERAGE BUILD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
WITH ALL TAF SITES EXPERIENCING SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS BY 12Z.
NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
25/06Z TAFS HAVE PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED A BREAK AROUND
25/03Z...BUT BROUGHT SHRA BACK INTO THE IAH TAF DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS (25/09Z-25/12Z) IN ANTICIPATION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM POSSIBLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS AND BOW ECHO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER HILL COUNTRY AND
NOW MAKING A BEELINE TOWARD NW COUNTIES. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS
INCORRECTLY WEAKENED THIS FEATURE. IT APPEARS MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO.

PATTERN IN GENERAL WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A STORMY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION... THE FLASH WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING TIME
(GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO) AROUND 4 AM FROM THE BURLESON TO
COLUMBUS TO MATAGORDA BAY AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE
WEATHER TOO.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  83  72  85  72 /  50  80  70  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  82  75  85  74 /  70  70  60  60  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  83  77  84  78 /  80  80  60  60  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...46
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KCRP 240529
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1229 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING ALI TAF SITE AT
ISSUANCE TIME...AND WILL REACH CRP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR VCT SITE AS
WELL. EXPECT OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
LIMITED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER. WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
THOUGH. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE BOTH WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND
WITH GRADIENT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN WEB COUNTY
AND SOUTHWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY BOWING OUT WITH
STRONG WINDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
JIM WELLS COUNTY EASTWARD...AND NORTH TO REFUGIO AND ARANSAS
COUNTIES. THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE ONLY COUNTIES NOT IN ONE OF THESE WATCHES
ARE VICTORIA AND CALHOUN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE NORTH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF S TX IN A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CDT.
CONVECTION OVER MEX AND THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING WIND DAMAGE
FROM STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLASH
FLOODING WITH A SECONDARY THREAT POSSIBLY BEING HAIL BUT IS LESS
LIKELY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. ALSO SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS S TX ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
EXPECTED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVG ACROSS S TX FROM MEX. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST TOWARD SUNRISE WITH A LULL
IN THE CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
TIMING OF BEST CHC FOR STRONGEST STORMS FOLLOWED WITH VCSH BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY AND NO MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY UNLESS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES BEHIND TONIGHTS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...VFR
THIS EVENING...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT THEN BACK TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE/WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND EARLY
SUNDAY. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO ADDITIONAL
LINES FORMING TO THE WEST IN MX. ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRAIN
OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS AND COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOOD EVENT OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND FLOODED RIVER
BASINS. ATMOS IS ALSO VERY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WE`LL SEE ON SUNDAY GIVEN
THE ATMOS SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER
MODELS ALL SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY RE-DEVELOPING BY AFTN. IF
CONVECTION FIRES ALONG ANY LEFT-OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IT COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH FLASH FLOODING A CONTINUING THREAT.
ANOTHER S/W ON MONDAY WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...(MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WHERE
THE SHORT TERM LEFT OFF...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER. WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND VERY HIGH
WATER CONTENT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

BEGINNING TUESDAY UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT CONTINUING
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH MUCH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMALS FOR LATE
MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  76  85  77  86  /  70  60  60  50  40
VICTORIA          82  73  83  73  85  /  80  60  60  60  40
LAREDO            90  74  91  75  91  /  30  30  40  40  30
ALICE             86  74  87  76  88  /  60  50  60  50  40
ROCKPORT          83  77  83  77  84  /  80  60  60  60  40
COTULLA           88  72  87  72  88  /  40  30  50  40  30
KINGSVILLE        86  75  86  77  88  /  60  50  60  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       83  77  83  78  84  /  70  60  60  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 240529
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1229 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING ALI TAF SITE AT
ISSUANCE TIME...AND WILL REACH CRP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR VCT SITE AS
WELL. EXPECT OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
LIMITED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER. WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
THOUGH. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE BOTH WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND
WITH GRADIENT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN WEB COUNTY
AND SOUTHWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY BOWING OUT WITH
STRONG WINDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
JIM WELLS COUNTY EASTWARD...AND NORTH TO REFUGIO AND ARANSAS
COUNTIES. THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE ONLY COUNTIES NOT IN ONE OF THESE WATCHES
ARE VICTORIA AND CALHOUN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE NORTH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF S TX IN A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CDT.
CONVECTION OVER MEX AND THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING WIND DAMAGE
FROM STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLASH
FLOODING WITH A SECONDARY THREAT POSSIBLY BEING HAIL BUT IS LESS
LIKELY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. ALSO SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS S TX ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
EXPECTED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVG ACROSS S TX FROM MEX. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST TOWARD SUNRISE WITH A LULL
IN THE CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
TIMING OF BEST CHC FOR STRONGEST STORMS FOLLOWED WITH VCSH BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY AND NO MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY UNLESS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES BEHIND TONIGHTS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...VFR
THIS EVENING...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT THEN BACK TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE/WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND EARLY
SUNDAY. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO ADDITIONAL
LINES FORMING TO THE WEST IN MX. ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRAIN
OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS AND COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOOD EVENT OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND FLOODED RIVER
BASINS. ATMOS IS ALSO VERY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WE`LL SEE ON SUNDAY GIVEN
THE ATMOS SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER
MODELS ALL SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY RE-DEVELOPING BY AFTN. IF
CONVECTION FIRES ALONG ANY LEFT-OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IT COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH FLASH FLOODING A CONTINUING THREAT.
ANOTHER S/W ON MONDAY WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...(MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WHERE
THE SHORT TERM LEFT OFF...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER. WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND VERY HIGH
WATER CONTENT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

BEGINNING TUESDAY UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT CONTINUING
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH MUCH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMALS FOR LATE
MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  76  85  77  86  /  70  60  60  50  40
VICTORIA          82  73  83  73  85  /  80  60  60  60  40
LAREDO            90  74  91  75  91  /  30  30  40  40  30
ALICE             86  74  87  76  88  /  60  50  60  50  40
ROCKPORT          83  77  83  77  84  /  80  60  60  60  40
COTULLA           88  72  87  72  88  /  40  30  50  40  30
KINGSVILLE        86  75  86  77  88  /  60  50  60  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       83  77  83  78  84  /  70  60  60  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 240529
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1229 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING ALI TAF SITE AT
ISSUANCE TIME...AND WILL REACH CRP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR VCT SITE AS
WELL. EXPECT OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
LIMITED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE MORNING CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER. WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
THOUGH. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE BOTH WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND
WITH GRADIENT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN WEB COUNTY
AND SOUTHWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY BOWING OUT WITH
STRONG WINDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
JIM WELLS COUNTY EASTWARD...AND NORTH TO REFUGIO AND ARANSAS
COUNTIES. THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE ONLY COUNTIES NOT IN ONE OF THESE WATCHES
ARE VICTORIA AND CALHOUN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE NORTH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF S TX IN A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CDT.
CONVECTION OVER MEX AND THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING WIND DAMAGE
FROM STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLASH
FLOODING WITH A SECONDARY THREAT POSSIBLY BEING HAIL BUT IS LESS
LIKELY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. ALSO SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS S TX ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
EXPECTED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVG ACROSS S TX FROM MEX. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST TOWARD SUNRISE WITH A LULL
IN THE CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
TIMING OF BEST CHC FOR STRONGEST STORMS FOLLOWED WITH VCSH BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY AND NO MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY UNLESS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES BEHIND TONIGHTS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...VFR
THIS EVENING...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT THEN BACK TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE/WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND EARLY
SUNDAY. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO ADDITIONAL
LINES FORMING TO THE WEST IN MX. ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRAIN
OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS AND COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOOD EVENT OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND FLOODED RIVER
BASINS. ATMOS IS ALSO VERY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WE`LL SEE ON SUNDAY GIVEN
THE ATMOS SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER
MODELS ALL SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY RE-DEVELOPING BY AFTN. IF
CONVECTION FIRES ALONG ANY LEFT-OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IT COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH FLASH FLOODING A CONTINUING THREAT.
ANOTHER S/W ON MONDAY WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...(MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WHERE
THE SHORT TERM LEFT OFF...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER. WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND VERY HIGH
WATER CONTENT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

BEGINNING TUESDAY UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT CONTINUING
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH MUCH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMALS FOR LATE
MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  76  85  77  86  /  70  60  60  50  40
VICTORIA          82  73  83  73  85  /  80  60  60  60  40
LAREDO            90  74  91  75  91  /  30  30  40  40  30
ALICE             86  74  87  76  88  /  60  50  60  50  40
ROCKPORT          83  77  83  77  84  /  80  60  60  60  40
COTULLA           88  72  87  72  88  /  40  30  50  40  30
KINGSVILLE        86  75  86  77  88  /  60  50  60  50  40
NAVY CORPUS       83  77  83  78  84  /  70  60  60  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KFWD 240456 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1156 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...PERIODS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A MCV /MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX/ SOUTHWEST OF KACT AT 05Z...
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THUS HAVE KEPT TAFS GENERALLY MVFR WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 10Z....AND VCTS THROUGH 14Z. TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW IS DIFFICULT...SOME HAVE
PLACED VCSH IN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BUT LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE CEILINGS FALL
BACK TO MVFR BY 04Z.



58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. LOCAL OBJECTIVE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOW INDICATING
INHIBITION IS NEAR 0 OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LIKELY NOW
PUSHING 2 INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS INCLUDING UNDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-40KT IN THE LOW LEVELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES WHERE WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FIELDS
ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES NOW PUSHING 2000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-20. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX...WHERE ANY DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS AREA MAY TRY TO
ROTATE AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
LOWER DUE TO WIDESPREAD/MESSY STORM COVERAGE...BUT STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE QUICK ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT MOST
IMPORTANTLY...A LINE OF STORMS...OR MCS...HAS DEVELOPED IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. A
STRONG COLD POOL HAS FORMED WITH THIS MCS WHICH IS CAUSING ITS
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...IT SHOULD REACH
THE NW ZONES AROUND 9 PM. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE THAT FOCUSES THE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS CELLS WILL
TRAIN OR BACKBUILD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. WE STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. AS THE NIGHTTIME PROGRESSES...THE MCS AND THE CONVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD FORM A SOLID NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF
RAIN/STORMS THAT MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE 2-3 INCH
TOTALS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-20 THAN SOUTH. SOME LOW SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES
EAST...BUT THE TIME OF DAY AND STORM MODE SUGGESTS JUST A VERY
MARGINAL WIND THREAT.

THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG FORCING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF I-35. SOME SUNSHINE
MAY OCCUR OUT WEST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS AFTER THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

ON MONDAY...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT A
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE LIKELY RESULT WOULD BE A MCS/SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ROUND WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...AGAIN MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY
STILL BE IN FLUX...AS SUNDAY/S ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS MAY IMPACT THE
FAVORABLE ZONE FOR WHERE MONDAY/S ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND TRACK.

MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK/BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
DEVELOPING AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG OVER THE AREA. A DRY LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE
NEAR THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...IF THE FORECASTED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VERIFIES...IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO GIVEN A SLOW
MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS...THE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT IS ASSURED. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INTEREST...EVEN THOUGH POPS ARE ONLY
20-30 PERCENT.

CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...BUT NOT AS BAD AS ON TUESDAY. FORCING
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK...AND THEREFORE ONLY
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UNORGANIZED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM....BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE
DETAILS NOW.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  76  68  81  66 / 100  80  30  60  50
WACO, TX              70  78  69  81  67 / 100  80  30  80  50
PARIS, TX             68  74  67  79  65 /  90  90  50  60  60
DENTON, TX            67  76  66  80  66 / 100  80  30  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          67  75  67  79  66 / 100  90  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            68  76  68  81  66 / 100  80  30  60  50
TERRELL, TX           69  74  69  80  67 / 100  80  40  70  50
CORSICANA, TX         70  76  70  80  67 / 100  80  40  80  60
TEMPLE, TX            70  79  69  81  67 / 100  70  30  80  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  79  67  81  64 / 100  70  20  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

58/58



000
FXUS64 KFWD 240456 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1156 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...PERIODS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A MCV /MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX/ SOUTHWEST OF KACT AT 05Z...
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THUS HAVE KEPT TAFS GENERALLY MVFR WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 10Z....AND VCTS THROUGH 14Z. TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW IS DIFFICULT...SOME HAVE
PLACED VCSH IN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BUT LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE CEILINGS FALL
BACK TO MVFR BY 04Z.



58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. LOCAL OBJECTIVE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOW INDICATING
INHIBITION IS NEAR 0 OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LIKELY NOW
PUSHING 2 INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS INCLUDING UNDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-40KT IN THE LOW LEVELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES WHERE WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FIELDS
ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES NOW PUSHING 2000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-20. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX...WHERE ANY DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS AREA MAY TRY TO
ROTATE AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
LOWER DUE TO WIDESPREAD/MESSY STORM COVERAGE...BUT STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE QUICK ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT MOST
IMPORTANTLY...A LINE OF STORMS...OR MCS...HAS DEVELOPED IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. A
STRONG COLD POOL HAS FORMED WITH THIS MCS WHICH IS CAUSING ITS
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...IT SHOULD REACH
THE NW ZONES AROUND 9 PM. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE THAT FOCUSES THE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS CELLS WILL
TRAIN OR BACKBUILD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. WE STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. AS THE NIGHTTIME PROGRESSES...THE MCS AND THE CONVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD FORM A SOLID NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF
RAIN/STORMS THAT MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE 2-3 INCH
TOTALS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-20 THAN SOUTH. SOME LOW SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES
EAST...BUT THE TIME OF DAY AND STORM MODE SUGGESTS JUST A VERY
MARGINAL WIND THREAT.

THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG FORCING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF I-35. SOME SUNSHINE
MAY OCCUR OUT WEST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS AFTER THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

ON MONDAY...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT A
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE LIKELY RESULT WOULD BE A MCS/SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ROUND WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...AGAIN MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY
STILL BE IN FLUX...AS SUNDAY/S ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS MAY IMPACT THE
FAVORABLE ZONE FOR WHERE MONDAY/S ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND TRACK.

MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK/BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
DEVELOPING AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG OVER THE AREA. A DRY LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE
NEAR THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...IF THE FORECASTED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VERIFIES...IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO GIVEN A SLOW
MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS...THE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT IS ASSURED. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INTEREST...EVEN THOUGH POPS ARE ONLY
20-30 PERCENT.

CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...BUT NOT AS BAD AS ON TUESDAY. FORCING
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK...AND THEREFORE ONLY
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UNORGANIZED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM....BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE
DETAILS NOW.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  76  68  81  66 / 100  80  30  60  50
WACO, TX              70  78  69  81  67 / 100  80  30  80  50
PARIS, TX             68  74  67  79  65 /  90  90  50  60  60
DENTON, TX            67  76  66  80  66 / 100  80  30  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          67  75  67  79  66 / 100  90  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            68  76  68  81  66 / 100  80  30  60  50
TERRELL, TX           69  74  69  80  67 / 100  80  40  70  50
CORSICANA, TX         70  76  70  80  67 / 100  80  40  80  60
TEMPLE, TX            70  79  69  81  67 / 100  70  30  80  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  79  67  81  64 / 100  70  20  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

58/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 240456 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1156 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...PERIODS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A MCV /MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX/ SOUTHWEST OF KACT AT 05Z...
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THUS HAVE KEPT TAFS GENERALLY MVFR WITH TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 10Z....AND VCTS THROUGH 14Z. TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW IS DIFFICULT...SOME HAVE
PLACED VCSH IN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BUT LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE CEILINGS FALL
BACK TO MVFR BY 04Z.



58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. LOCAL OBJECTIVE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOW INDICATING
INHIBITION IS NEAR 0 OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LIKELY NOW
PUSHING 2 INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS INCLUDING UNDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-40KT IN THE LOW LEVELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES WHERE WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FIELDS
ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES NOW PUSHING 2000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-20. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX...WHERE ANY DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS AREA MAY TRY TO
ROTATE AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
LOWER DUE TO WIDESPREAD/MESSY STORM COVERAGE...BUT STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE QUICK ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT MOST
IMPORTANTLY...A LINE OF STORMS...OR MCS...HAS DEVELOPED IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. A
STRONG COLD POOL HAS FORMED WITH THIS MCS WHICH IS CAUSING ITS
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...IT SHOULD REACH
THE NW ZONES AROUND 9 PM. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE THAT FOCUSES THE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS CELLS WILL
TRAIN OR BACKBUILD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. WE STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. AS THE NIGHTTIME PROGRESSES...THE MCS AND THE CONVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD FORM A SOLID NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF
RAIN/STORMS THAT MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE 2-3 INCH
TOTALS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-20 THAN SOUTH. SOME LOW SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES
EAST...BUT THE TIME OF DAY AND STORM MODE SUGGESTS JUST A VERY
MARGINAL WIND THREAT.

THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG FORCING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF I-35. SOME SUNSHINE
MAY OCCUR OUT WEST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS AFTER THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

ON MONDAY...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT A
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE LIKELY RESULT WOULD BE A MCS/SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ROUND WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...AGAIN MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY
STILL BE IN FLUX...AS SUNDAY/S ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS MAY IMPACT THE
FAVORABLE ZONE FOR WHERE MONDAY/S ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND TRACK.

MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK/BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
DEVELOPING AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG OVER THE AREA. A DRY LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE
NEAR THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...IF THE FORECASTED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VERIFIES...IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO GIVEN A SLOW
MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS...THE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT IS ASSURED. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INTEREST...EVEN THOUGH POPS ARE ONLY
20-30 PERCENT.

CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...BUT NOT AS BAD AS ON TUESDAY. FORCING
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK...AND THEREFORE ONLY
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UNORGANIZED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM....BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE
DETAILS NOW.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  76  68  81  66 / 100  80  30  60  50
WACO, TX              70  78  69  81  67 / 100  80  30  80  50
PARIS, TX             68  74  67  79  65 /  90  90  50  60  60
DENTON, TX            67  76  66  80  66 / 100  80  30  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          67  75  67  79  66 / 100  90  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            68  76  68  81  66 / 100  80  30  60  50
TERRELL, TX           69  74  69  80  67 / 100  80  40  70  50
CORSICANA, TX         70  76  70  80  67 / 100  80  40  80  60
TEMPLE, TX            70  79  69  81  67 / 100  70  30  80  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  79  67  81  64 / 100  70  20  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

58/58



000
FXUS64 KLUB 240448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED TO THE EAST. SHORT-TERM
SOLUTIONS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR SOUTH
OF KCDS DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH NOT SEEING INDICATIONS ON RADAR.
ALTHOUGH NO MENTION IN THE KCDS TAF FOR ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES
TONIGHT...THIS IS SUBJECT TO BE ADDED IF SUPPORTED BY RADAR
TRENDS OR OTHERWISE. KCDS ALSO CLOSEST TO GOING TO A STRATUS
LAYER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WE HAVE CONTINUED MUCH OF PREVIOUS
PREMISE WITH IFR OR LOWER CEILING POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO
LIKELY TO RETURN TO KLBB AND KPVW DURING THE NIGHT...WE RETAINED
A STRATUS LAYER THOUGH DELAYED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. VEERED LOW
LEVEL FLOW LATER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT DEPTH OF MOISTURE EARLY
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR BY MID MORNING. THUNDER
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY SLIGHTLY BETTER NEAR KCDS BUT NOT ENOUGH YET
FOR A PROB30 MENTION. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE REGION WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX OVER NEW MEXICO WAS MOVING EAST AND MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
UPPER IMPULSE PROVIDING LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KLBB AND
KPVW TO START BUT WILL QUICKLY EDGE EAST AND MAY APPROACH KCDS AS
WELL BY 01Z-03Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE EXPECT GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS DECK TO RETURN LATER IN THE EVENING. MAY ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS MORE THIS LAYER LIFTING OUT SUNDAY WITH THE 06Z TAF AND
ALSO ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES PERHAPS IMPACTING KCDS LATE SUNDAY
IN PARTICULAR. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /   0  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  20  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  30  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 240448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED TO THE EAST. SHORT-TERM
SOLUTIONS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR SOUTH
OF KCDS DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH NOT SEEING INDICATIONS ON RADAR.
ALTHOUGH NO MENTION IN THE KCDS TAF FOR ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES
TONIGHT...THIS IS SUBJECT TO BE ADDED IF SUPPORTED BY RADAR
TRENDS OR OTHERWISE. KCDS ALSO CLOSEST TO GOING TO A STRATUS
LAYER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WE HAVE CONTINUED MUCH OF PREVIOUS
PREMISE WITH IFR OR LOWER CEILING POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO
LIKELY TO RETURN TO KLBB AND KPVW DURING THE NIGHT...WE RETAINED
A STRATUS LAYER THOUGH DELAYED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. VEERED LOW
LEVEL FLOW LATER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT DEPTH OF MOISTURE EARLY
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR BY MID MORNING. THUNDER
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY SLIGHTLY BETTER NEAR KCDS BUT NOT ENOUGH YET
FOR A PROB30 MENTION. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE REGION WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX OVER NEW MEXICO WAS MOVING EAST AND MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
UPPER IMPULSE PROVIDING LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KLBB AND
KPVW TO START BUT WILL QUICKLY EDGE EAST AND MAY APPROACH KCDS AS
WELL BY 01Z-03Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE EXPECT GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS DECK TO RETURN LATER IN THE EVENING. MAY ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS MORE THIS LAYER LIFTING OUT SUNDAY WITH THE 06Z TAF AND
ALSO ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES PERHAPS IMPACTING KCDS LATE SUNDAY
IN PARTICULAR. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /   0  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  20  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  30  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05



000
FXUS64 KLUB 240448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED TO THE EAST. SHORT-TERM
SOLUTIONS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR SOUTH
OF KCDS DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH NOT SEEING INDICATIONS ON RADAR.
ALTHOUGH NO MENTION IN THE KCDS TAF FOR ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES
TONIGHT...THIS IS SUBJECT TO BE ADDED IF SUPPORTED BY RADAR
TRENDS OR OTHERWISE. KCDS ALSO CLOSEST TO GOING TO A STRATUS
LAYER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WE HAVE CONTINUED MUCH OF PREVIOUS
PREMISE WITH IFR OR LOWER CEILING POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO
LIKELY TO RETURN TO KLBB AND KPVW DURING THE NIGHT...WE RETAINED
A STRATUS LAYER THOUGH DELAYED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. VEERED LOW
LEVEL FLOW LATER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT DEPTH OF MOISTURE EARLY
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR BY MID MORNING. THUNDER
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY SLIGHTLY BETTER NEAR KCDS BUT NOT ENOUGH YET
FOR A PROB30 MENTION. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE REGION WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX OVER NEW MEXICO WAS MOVING EAST AND MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
UPPER IMPULSE PROVIDING LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KLBB AND
KPVW TO START BUT WILL QUICKLY EDGE EAST AND MAY APPROACH KCDS AS
WELL BY 01Z-03Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE EXPECT GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS DECK TO RETURN LATER IN THE EVENING. MAY ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS MORE THIS LAYER LIFTING OUT SUNDAY WITH THE 06Z TAF AND
ALSO ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES PERHAPS IMPACTING KCDS LATE SUNDAY
IN PARTICULAR. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /   0  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  20  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  30  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05



000
FXUS64 KLUB 240448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED TO THE EAST. SHORT-TERM
SOLUTIONS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR SOUTH
OF KCDS DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH NOT SEEING INDICATIONS ON RADAR.
ALTHOUGH NO MENTION IN THE KCDS TAF FOR ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES
TONIGHT...THIS IS SUBJECT TO BE ADDED IF SUPPORTED BY RADAR
TRENDS OR OTHERWISE. KCDS ALSO CLOSEST TO GOING TO A STRATUS
LAYER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WE HAVE CONTINUED MUCH OF PREVIOUS
PREMISE WITH IFR OR LOWER CEILING POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO
LIKELY TO RETURN TO KLBB AND KPVW DURING THE NIGHT...WE RETAINED
A STRATUS LAYER THOUGH DELAYED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. VEERED LOW
LEVEL FLOW LATER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT DEPTH OF MOISTURE EARLY
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR BY MID MORNING. THUNDER
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY SLIGHTLY BETTER NEAR KCDS BUT NOT ENOUGH YET
FOR A PROB30 MENTION. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE REGION WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX OVER NEW MEXICO WAS MOVING EAST AND MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
UPPER IMPULSE PROVIDING LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KLBB AND
KPVW TO START BUT WILL QUICKLY EDGE EAST AND MAY APPROACH KCDS AS
WELL BY 01Z-03Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE EXPECT GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS DECK TO RETURN LATER IN THE EVENING. MAY ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS MORE THIS LAYER LIFTING OUT SUNDAY WITH THE 06Z TAF AND
ALSO ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES PERHAPS IMPACTING KCDS LATE SUNDAY
IN PARTICULAR. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /   0  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  20  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  30  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05



000
FXUS64 KLUB 240448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED TO THE EAST. SHORT-TERM
SOLUTIONS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT NEAR OR SOUTH
OF KCDS DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH NOT SEEING INDICATIONS ON RADAR.
ALTHOUGH NO MENTION IN THE KCDS TAF FOR ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES
TONIGHT...THIS IS SUBJECT TO BE ADDED IF SUPPORTED BY RADAR
TRENDS OR OTHERWISE. KCDS ALSO CLOSEST TO GOING TO A STRATUS
LAYER IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WE HAVE CONTINUED MUCH OF PREVIOUS
PREMISE WITH IFR OR LOWER CEILING POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO
LIKELY TO RETURN TO KLBB AND KPVW DURING THE NIGHT...WE RETAINED
A STRATUS LAYER THOUGH DELAYED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. VEERED LOW
LEVEL FLOW LATER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT DEPTH OF MOISTURE EARLY
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR BY MID MORNING. THUNDER
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY SLIGHTLY BETTER NEAR KCDS BUT NOT ENOUGH YET
FOR A PROB30 MENTION. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE REGION WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX OVER NEW MEXICO WAS MOVING EAST AND MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
UPPER IMPULSE PROVIDING LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KLBB AND
KPVW TO START BUT WILL QUICKLY EDGE EAST AND MAY APPROACH KCDS AS
WELL BY 01Z-03Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE EXPECT GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS DECK TO RETURN LATER IN THE EVENING. MAY ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS MORE THIS LAYER LIFTING OUT SUNDAY WITH THE 06Z TAF AND
ALSO ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES PERHAPS IMPACTING KCDS LATE SUNDAY
IN PARTICULAR. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /   0  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  20  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  30  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05



000
FXUS64 KSJT 240423
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Mostly light showers will continue over most of the area through
the remainder of the night with isolated thunderstorms possible
over the norther terminals. VFR ceilings are expected to degrade
to MVFR shortly after midnight at all terminals and continue MVFR
with occasional IFR through the remainder of the night. Ceilings
will lift to VFR by mid to late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to expire tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch Number 196 had been allowed to expire.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  64  83  65  83 /  80  80  50  20  40
San Angelo  80  65  86  65  85 /  80  80  40  20  40
Junction  79  66  84  68  80 /  80  80  40  20  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 240423
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Mostly light showers will continue over most of the area through
the remainder of the night with isolated thunderstorms possible
over the norther terminals. VFR ceilings are expected to degrade
to MVFR shortly after midnight at all terminals and continue MVFR
with occasional IFR through the remainder of the night. Ceilings
will lift to VFR by mid to late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to expire tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch Number 196 had been allowed to expire.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  64  83  65  83 /  80  80  50  20  40
San Angelo  80  65  86  65  85 /  80  80  40  20  40
Junction  79  66  84  68  80 /  80  80  40  20  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 240423
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Mostly light showers will continue over most of the area through
the remainder of the night with isolated thunderstorms possible
over the norther terminals. VFR ceilings are expected to degrade
to MVFR shortly after midnight at all terminals and continue MVFR
with occasional IFR through the remainder of the night. Ceilings
will lift to VFR by mid to late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to expire tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch Number 196 had been allowed to expire.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  64  83  65  83 /  80  80  50  20  40
San Angelo  80  65  86  65  85 /  80  80  40  20  40
Junction  79  66  84  68  80 /  80  80  40  20  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 240423
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Mostly light showers will continue over most of the area through
the remainder of the night with isolated thunderstorms possible
over the norther terminals. VFR ceilings are expected to degrade
to MVFR shortly after midnight at all terminals and continue MVFR
with occasional IFR through the remainder of the night. Ceilings
will lift to VFR by mid to late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to expire tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch Number 196 had been allowed to expire.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  64  83  65  83 /  80  80  50  20  40
San Angelo  80  65  86  65  85 /  80  80  40  20  40
Junction  79  66  84  68  80 /  80  80  40  20  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 240423
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Mostly light showers will continue over most of the area through
the remainder of the night with isolated thunderstorms possible
over the norther terminals. VFR ceilings are expected to degrade
to MVFR shortly after midnight at all terminals and continue MVFR
with occasional IFR through the remainder of the night. Ceilings
will lift to VFR by mid to late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to expire tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch Number 196 had been allowed to expire.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  64  83  65  83 /  80  80  50  20  40
San Angelo  80  65  86  65  85 /  80  80  40  20  40
Junction  79  66  84  68  80 /  80  80  40  20  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 240423
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Mostly light showers will continue over most of the area through
the remainder of the night with isolated thunderstorms possible
over the norther terminals. VFR ceilings are expected to degrade
to MVFR shortly after midnight at all terminals and continue MVFR
with occasional IFR through the remainder of the night. Ceilings
will lift to VFR by mid to late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to expire tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch Number 196 had been allowed to expire.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  64  83  65  83 /  80  80  50  20  40
San Angelo  80  65  86  65  85 /  80  80  40  20  40
Junction  79  66  84  68  80 /  80  80  40  20  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 240423
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Mostly light showers will continue over most of the area through
the remainder of the night with isolated thunderstorms possible
over the norther terminals. VFR ceilings are expected to degrade
to MVFR shortly after midnight at all terminals and continue MVFR
with occasional IFR through the remainder of the night. Ceilings
will lift to VFR by mid to late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to expire tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch Number 196 had been allowed to expire.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  64  83  65  83 /  80  80  50  20  40
San Angelo  80  65  86  65  85 /  80  80  40  20  40
Junction  79  66  84  68  80 /  80  80  40  20  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 240423
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Mostly light showers will continue over most of the area through
the remainder of the night with isolated thunderstorms possible
over the norther terminals. VFR ceilings are expected to degrade
to MVFR shortly after midnight at all terminals and continue MVFR
with occasional IFR through the remainder of the night. Ceilings
will lift to VFR by mid to late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to expire tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch Number 196 had been allowed to expire.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  64  83  65  83 /  80  80  50  20  40
San Angelo  80  65  86  65  85 /  80  80  40  20  40
Junction  79  66  84  68  80 /  80  80  40  20  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 240403 AAD
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER REST OF TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT CONSIDERING
UPSLOPE FLOW AND WET GROUNDS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAIL. IFR
TO VLIFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND
AMARILLO TAF SITES AND THEN BECOMING VFR AFTER 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
AFTER 20Z SUNDAY TO 01Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH 194 TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM CDT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON. WILL RETAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN
SECTIONS UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR
TONIGHT ARE PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST TO
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 00Z MONDAY...HOWEVER IT MAY
ALSO STALL NEAR THE CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH DALHART AND
GUYMON TAF SITES WELL WEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 01Z TO 03Z SUNDAY AT MAINLY
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST FOR
NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MAY BE INSERTED LATER THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 01Z SUNDAY...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SEE TORNADO WATCH 194 FOR
DETAILS.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM
FOR EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 240403 AAD
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER REST OF TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT CONSIDERING
UPSLOPE FLOW AND WET GROUNDS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAIL. IFR
TO VLIFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND
AMARILLO TAF SITES AND THEN BECOMING VFR AFTER 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
AFTER 20Z SUNDAY TO 01Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH 194 TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM CDT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON. WILL RETAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN
SECTIONS UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR
TONIGHT ARE PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST TO
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 00Z MONDAY...HOWEVER IT MAY
ALSO STALL NEAR THE CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH DALHART AND
GUYMON TAF SITES WELL WEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 01Z TO 03Z SUNDAY AT MAINLY
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST FOR
NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MAY BE INSERTED LATER THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 01Z SUNDAY...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SEE TORNADO WATCH 194 FOR
DETAILS.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM
FOR EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 240403 AAD
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER REST OF TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT CONSIDERING
UPSLOPE FLOW AND WET GROUNDS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAIL. IFR
TO VLIFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND
AMARILLO TAF SITES AND THEN BECOMING VFR AFTER 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
AFTER 20Z SUNDAY TO 01Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH 194 TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM CDT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON. WILL RETAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN
SECTIONS UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR
TONIGHT ARE PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST TO
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 00Z MONDAY...HOWEVER IT MAY
ALSO STALL NEAR THE CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH DALHART AND
GUYMON TAF SITES WELL WEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 01Z TO 03Z SUNDAY AT MAINLY
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST FOR
NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MAY BE INSERTED LATER THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 01Z SUNDAY...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SEE TORNADO WATCH 194 FOR
DETAILS.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM
FOR EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 240403 AAD
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER REST OF TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT CONSIDERING
UPSLOPE FLOW AND WET GROUNDS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAIL. IFR
TO VLIFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND
AMARILLO TAF SITES AND THEN BECOMING VFR AFTER 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
AFTER 20Z SUNDAY TO 01Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH 194 TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM CDT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON. WILL RETAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN
SECTIONS UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR
TONIGHT ARE PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST TO
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 00Z MONDAY...HOWEVER IT MAY
ALSO STALL NEAR THE CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH DALHART AND
GUYMON TAF SITES WELL WEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 01Z TO 03Z SUNDAY AT MAINLY
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST FOR
NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MAY BE INSERTED LATER THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 01Z SUNDAY...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SEE TORNADO WATCH 194 FOR
DETAILS.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM
FOR EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 240403 AAD
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER REST OF TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT CONSIDERING
UPSLOPE FLOW AND WET GROUNDS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAIL. IFR
TO VLIFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND
AMARILLO TAF SITES AND THEN BECOMING VFR AFTER 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
AFTER 20Z SUNDAY TO 01Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH 194 TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM CDT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON. WILL RETAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN
SECTIONS UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR
TONIGHT ARE PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST TO
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 00Z MONDAY...HOWEVER IT MAY
ALSO STALL NEAR THE CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH DALHART AND
GUYMON TAF SITES WELL WEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 01Z TO 03Z SUNDAY AT MAINLY
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST FOR
NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MAY BE INSERTED LATER THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 01Z SUNDAY...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SEE TORNADO WATCH 194 FOR
DETAILS.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM
FOR EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 240403 AAD
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1103 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER REST OF TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT CONSIDERING
UPSLOPE FLOW AND WET GROUNDS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAIL. IFR
TO VLIFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND
AMARILLO TAF SITES AND THEN BECOMING VFR AFTER 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
AFTER 20Z SUNDAY TO 01Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH 194 TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM CDT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON. WILL RETAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN
SECTIONS UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR
TONIGHT ARE PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST TO
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 00Z MONDAY...HOWEVER IT MAY
ALSO STALL NEAR THE CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH DALHART AND
GUYMON TAF SITES WELL WEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 01Z TO 03Z SUNDAY AT MAINLY
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST FOR
NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MAY BE INSERTED LATER THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 01Z SUNDAY...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SEE TORNADO WATCH 194 FOR
DETAILS.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM
FOR EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBRO 240400
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...BRO RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
HEBBRONVILLE TO NEAR FALCON DAM. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 4 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTIVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST MOVE WEST TO EAST
INTO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AERODROMES MAINLY AFTER 06Z...WILL MENTION VCTS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 08Z MFE...09Z HRL AND
10Z AT BRO FOR TSRA...GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA
.WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM CDT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A ROUGHLY
BAFFIN BAY TO SULLIVAN CITY LINE. WITH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NEARLY ALL OF
THE BRO CWFA (EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY) IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INITIATOR FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOOUSLY-MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ONE FINAL 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX ON MON
WHICH WILL GIVE THE STATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF CONV. MEAN RH
FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY BREAK MAINTAINING THE
CONV POTENTIAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL GET IT RIGHT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE WETTER OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODEL SETS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MOST THE CONV REMAINING CONCENTRATED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV AND THE
REST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF SPREAD BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND AS AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. ONCE THIS LAST 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE STATE 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED AND THURS DIMINISHING THE CONV POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
SHALLOWER 500 MB TROUGH THEN PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND SAT WHICH MAY BOOST UP OUR
CONV POTENTIAL A BIT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME 20 TO 30 %
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD STRATEGY. WITH
LINGER CONV POTENTIAL ON MON WILL UNDERCUT MEX/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HERE. THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE GFS MEX
MOS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONV POTENTIAL ON MON.
CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE RAIN CHCS IS ONLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE
SERIOUS MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14
CDT/19 UTC. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTERACTING...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PGF. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL
DAY. THE PGF WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS.

HYDROLOGY...RECENT WATER RELEASES FROM THE EL CUCHILLO AND MARTE
R. GOMEZ RESERVOIRS ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIO
GRANDE. CURRENTLY THE RIVER STAGE AT THE SAN BENITO GAUGE ON THE
RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SAN BENITO GAUGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 47.4 FEET ON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE AT THE
SAN BENITO GAUGE IS 55.0 FEET. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR OFFICE
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV ON THE RIVERS/LAKES SECTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KBRO 240400 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...BRO RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
HEBBRONVILLE TO NEAR FALCON DAM. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 4 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTIVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST MOVE WEST TO EAST
INTO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AERODROMES MAINLY AFTER 06Z...WILL MENTION VCTS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 08Z MFE...09Z HRL AND
10Z AT BRO FOR TSRA...GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA
.WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM CDT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A ROUGHLY
BAFFIN BAY TO SULLIVAN CITY LINE. WITH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NEARLY ALL OF
THE BRO CWFA (EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY) IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INITIATOR FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOOUSLY-MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ONE FINAL 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX ON MON
WHICH WILL GIVE THE STATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF CONV. MEAN RH
FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY BREAK MAINTAINING THE
CONV POTENTIAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL GET IT RIGHT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE WETTER OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODEL SETS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MOST THE CONV REMAINING CONCENTRATED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV AND THE
REST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF SPREAD BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND AS AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. ONCE THIS LAST 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE STATE 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED AND THURS DIMINISHING THE CONV POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
SHALLOWER 500 MB TROUGH THEN PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND SAT WHICH MAY BOOST UP OUR
CONV POTENTIAL A BIT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME 20 TO 30 %
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD STRATEGY. WITH
LINGER CONV POTENTIAL ON MON WILL UNDERCUT MEX/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HERE. THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE GFS MEX
MOS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONV POTENTIAL ON MON.
CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE RAIN CHCS IS ONLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE
SERIOUS MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14
CDT/19 UTC. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTERACTING...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PGF. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL
DAY. THE PGF WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS.

HYDROLOGY...RECENT WATER RELEASES FROM THE EL CUCHILLO AND MARTE
R. GOMEZ RESERVOIRS ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIO
GRANDE. CURRENTLY THE RIVER STAGE AT THE SAN BENITO GAUGE ON THE
RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SAN BENITO GAUGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 47.4 FEET ON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE AT THE
SAN BENITO GAUGE IS 55.0 FEET. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR OFFICE
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV ON THE RIVERS/LAKES SECTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63



000
FXUS64 KBRO 240400 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...BRO RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
HEBBRONVILLE TO NEAR FALCON DAM. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 4 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTIVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST MOVE WEST TO EAST
INTO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AERODROMES MAINLY AFTER 06Z...WILL MENTION VCTS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 08Z MFE...09Z HRL AND
10Z AT BRO FOR TSRA...GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA
.WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM CDT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A ROUGHLY
BAFFIN BAY TO SULLIVAN CITY LINE. WITH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NEARLY ALL OF
THE BRO CWFA (EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY) IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INITIATOR FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOOUSLY-MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ONE FINAL 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX ON MON
WHICH WILL GIVE THE STATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF CONV. MEAN RH
FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY BREAK MAINTAINING THE
CONV POTENTIAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL GET IT RIGHT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE WETTER OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODEL SETS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MOST THE CONV REMAINING CONCENTRATED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV AND THE
REST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF SPREAD BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND AS AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. ONCE THIS LAST 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE STATE 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED AND THURS DIMINISHING THE CONV POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
SHALLOWER 500 MB TROUGH THEN PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND SAT WHICH MAY BOOST UP OUR
CONV POTENTIAL A BIT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME 20 TO 30 %
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD STRATEGY. WITH
LINGER CONV POTENTIAL ON MON WILL UNDERCUT MEX/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HERE. THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE GFS MEX
MOS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONV POTENTIAL ON MON.
CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE RAIN CHCS IS ONLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE
SERIOUS MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14
CDT/19 UTC. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTERACTING...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PGF. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL
DAY. THE PGF WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS.

HYDROLOGY...RECENT WATER RELEASES FROM THE EL CUCHILLO AND MARTE
R. GOMEZ RESERVOIRS ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIO
GRANDE. CURRENTLY THE RIVER STAGE AT THE SAN BENITO GAUGE ON THE
RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SAN BENITO GAUGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 47.4 FEET ON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE AT THE
SAN BENITO GAUGE IS 55.0 FEET. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR OFFICE
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV ON THE RIVERS/LAKES SECTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KAMA 240346
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1046 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAIL. IFR
TO VLIFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND
AMARILLO TAF SITES AND THEN BECOMING VFR AFTER 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
AFTER 20Z SUNDAY TO 01Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH 194 TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM CDT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON. WILL RETAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN
SECTIONS UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR
TONIGHT ARE PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST TO
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 00Z MONDAY...HOWEVER IT MAY
ALSO STALL NEAR THE CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH DALHART AND
GUYMON TAF SITES WELL WEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 01Z TO 03Z SUNDAY AT MAINLY
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST FOR
NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MAY BE INSERTED LATER THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 01Z SUNDAY...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SEE TORNADO WATCH 194 FOR
DETAILS.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM
FOR EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$

11




000
FXUS64 KAMA 240346
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1046 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AS UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS PREVAIL. IFR
TO VLIFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND
AMARILLO TAF SITES AND THEN BECOMING VFR AFTER 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
AFTER 20Z SUNDAY TO 01Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH 194 TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM CDT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON. WILL RETAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN
SECTIONS UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR
TONIGHT ARE PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST TO
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 00Z MONDAY...HOWEVER IT MAY
ALSO STALL NEAR THE CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH DALHART AND
GUYMON TAF SITES WELL WEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 01Z TO 03Z SUNDAY AT MAINLY
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST FOR
NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MAY BE INSERTED LATER THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 01Z SUNDAY...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SEE TORNADO WATCH 194 FOR
DETAILS.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM
FOR EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KCRP 240343
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN WEB COUNTY
AND SOUTHWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY BOWING OUT WITH
STRONG WINDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
JIM WELLS COUNTY EASTWARD...AND NORTH TO REFUGIO AND ARANSAS
COUNTIES. THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE ONLY COUNTIES NOT IN ONE OF THESE WATCHES
ARE VICTORIA AND CALHOUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE NORTH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF S TX IN A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CDT.
CONVECTION OVER MEX AND THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING WIND DAMAGE
FROM STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLASH
FLOODING WITH A SECONDARY THREAT POSSIBLY BEING HAIL BUT IS LESS
LIKELY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. ALSO SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS S TX ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
EXPECTED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVG ACROSS S TX FROM MEX. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST TOWARD SUNRISE WITH A LULL
IN THE CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
TIMING OF BEST CHC FOR STRONGEST STORMS FOLLOWED WITH VCSH BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY AND NO MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY UNLESS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES BEHIND TONIGHTS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...VFR
THIS EVENING...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT THEN BACK TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE/WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND EARLY
SUNDAY. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO ADDITIONAL
LINES FORMING TO THE WEST IN MX. ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRAIN
OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS AND COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOOD EVENT OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND FLOODED RIVER
BASINS. ATMOS IS ALSO VERY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WE`LL SEE ON SUNDAY GIVEN
THE ATMOS SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER
MODELS ALL SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY RE-DEVELOPING BY AFTN. IF
CONVECTION FIRES ALONG ANY LEFT-OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IT COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH FLASH FLOODING A CONTINUING THREAT.
ANOTHER S/W ON MONDAY WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...(MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WHERE
THE SHORT TERM LEFT OFF...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER. WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND VERY HIGH
WATER CONTENT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

BEGINNING TUESDAY UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT CONTINUING
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH MUCH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMALS FOR LATE
MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  84  76  85  77  /  70  70  60  60  50
VICTORIA          72  82  73  83  73  /  80  80  60  60  60
LAREDO            71  90  74  91  75  /  80  30  30  40  40
ALICE             74  86  74  87  76  /  70  60  50  60  50
ROCKPORT          77  83  77  83  77  /  70  80  60  60  60
COTULLA           70  88  72  87  72  /  90  40  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        75  86  75  86  77  /  70  60  50  60  50
NAVY CORPUS       76  83  77  83  78  /  70  70  60  60  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 240343
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN WEB COUNTY
AND SOUTHWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY BOWING OUT WITH
STRONG WINDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
JIM WELLS COUNTY EASTWARD...AND NORTH TO REFUGIO AND ARANSAS
COUNTIES. THE TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE ONLY COUNTIES NOT IN ONE OF THESE WATCHES
ARE VICTORIA AND CALHOUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE NORTH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF S TX IN A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CDT.
CONVECTION OVER MEX AND THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING WIND DAMAGE
FROM STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLASH
FLOODING WITH A SECONDARY THREAT POSSIBLY BEING HAIL BUT IS LESS
LIKELY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. ALSO SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS S TX ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
EXPECTED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVG ACROSS S TX FROM MEX. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST TOWARD SUNRISE WITH A LULL
IN THE CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
TIMING OF BEST CHC FOR STRONGEST STORMS FOLLOWED WITH VCSH BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY AND NO MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY UNLESS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES BEHIND TONIGHTS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...VFR
THIS EVENING...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT THEN BACK TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE/WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND EARLY
SUNDAY. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO ADDITIONAL
LINES FORMING TO THE WEST IN MX. ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRAIN
OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS AND COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOOD EVENT OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND FLOODED RIVER
BASINS. ATMOS IS ALSO VERY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WE`LL SEE ON SUNDAY GIVEN
THE ATMOS SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER
MODELS ALL SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY RE-DEVELOPING BY AFTN. IF
CONVECTION FIRES ALONG ANY LEFT-OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IT COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH FLASH FLOODING A CONTINUING THREAT.
ANOTHER S/W ON MONDAY WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...(MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WHERE
THE SHORT TERM LEFT OFF...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER. WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND VERY HIGH
WATER CONTENT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

BEGINNING TUESDAY UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT CONTINUING
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH MUCH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMALS FOR LATE
MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  84  76  85  77  /  70  70  60  60  50
VICTORIA          72  82  73  83  73  /  80  80  60  60  60
LAREDO            71  90  74  91  75  /  80  30  30  40  40
ALICE             74  86  74  87  76  /  70  60  50  60  50
ROCKPORT          77  83  77  83  77  /  70  80  60  60  60
COTULLA           70  88  72  87  72  /  90  40  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        75  86  75  86  77  /  70  60  50  60  50
NAVY CORPUS       76  83  77  83  78  /  70  70  60  60  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KHGX 240313
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1013 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS AND BOW ECHO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER HILL COUNTRY AND
NOW MAKING A BEELINE TOWARD NW COUNTIES. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS
INCORRECTLY WEAKENED THIS FEATURE. IT APPEARS MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO.

PATTERN IN GENERAL WILL SHIFT WEST TO EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A STORMY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TIME PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. 46

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION... THE FLASH WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING TIME
(GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO) AROUND 4 AM FROM THE BURLESON TO
COLUMBUS TO MATAGORDA BAY AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE
WEATHER TOO. &&

AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT SPOTTY SHRA COVERAGE FOR THE
REMAINING EVENING HOURS...THEN INCREASING SHRA/TSRA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THESE STORMS...MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED...AND IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH +TSRA AND VERY GUSTY
S TO SE WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. WE SHOULD HAVE DECREASING COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES TOMORROW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAD ON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

.FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  78  73  83  72 /  70  80  50  80  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  78  74  82  75 /  50  90  70  70  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  80  78  83  77 /  30  80  80  80  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99



000
FXUS64 KLUB 240240
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
940 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE REGION WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX OVER NEW MEXICO WAS MOVING EAST AND MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
UPPER IMPULSE PROVIDING LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KLBB AND
KPVW TO START BUT WILL QUICKLY EDGE EAST AND MAY APPROACH KCDS AS
WELL BY 01Z-03Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE EXPECT GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS DECK TO RETURN LATER IN THE EVENING. MAY ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS MORE THIS LAYER LIFTING OUT SUNDAY WITH THE 06Z TAF AND
ALSO ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES PERHAPS IMPACTING KCDS LATE SUNDAY
IN PARTICULAR. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /   0  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  20  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  30  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05



000
FXUS64 KLUB 240240
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
940 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE REGION WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX OVER NEW MEXICO WAS MOVING EAST AND MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
UPPER IMPULSE PROVIDING LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KLBB AND
KPVW TO START BUT WILL QUICKLY EDGE EAST AND MAY APPROACH KCDS AS
WELL BY 01Z-03Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE EXPECT GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS DECK TO RETURN LATER IN THE EVENING. MAY ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS MORE THIS LAYER LIFTING OUT SUNDAY WITH THE 06Z TAF AND
ALSO ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES PERHAPS IMPACTING KCDS LATE SUNDAY
IN PARTICULAR. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /   0  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  20  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  30  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05



000
FXUS64 KLUB 240240
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
940 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE REGION WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX OVER NEW MEXICO WAS MOVING EAST AND MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
UPPER IMPULSE PROVIDING LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KLBB AND
KPVW TO START BUT WILL QUICKLY EDGE EAST AND MAY APPROACH KCDS AS
WELL BY 01Z-03Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE EXPECT GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS DECK TO RETURN LATER IN THE EVENING. MAY ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS MORE THIS LAYER LIFTING OUT SUNDAY WITH THE 06Z TAF AND
ALSO ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES PERHAPS IMPACTING KCDS LATE SUNDAY
IN PARTICULAR. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /   0  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  20  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  30  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05



000
FXUS64 KLUB 240240
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
940 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE REGION WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX OVER NEW MEXICO WAS MOVING EAST AND MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
UPPER IMPULSE PROVIDING LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KLBB AND
KPVW TO START BUT WILL QUICKLY EDGE EAST AND MAY APPROACH KCDS AS
WELL BY 01Z-03Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE EXPECT GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS DECK TO RETURN LATER IN THE EVENING. MAY ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS MORE THIS LAYER LIFTING OUT SUNDAY WITH THE 06Z TAF AND
ALSO ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES PERHAPS IMPACTING KCDS LATE SUNDAY
IN PARTICULAR. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /   0  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  20  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  30  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05



000
FXUS64 KLUB 240240
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
940 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE REGION WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX OVER NEW MEXICO WAS MOVING EAST AND MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
UPPER IMPULSE PROVIDING LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KLBB AND
KPVW TO START BUT WILL QUICKLY EDGE EAST AND MAY APPROACH KCDS AS
WELL BY 01Z-03Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE EXPECT GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS DECK TO RETURN LATER IN THE EVENING. MAY ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS MORE THIS LAYER LIFTING OUT SUNDAY WITH THE 06Z TAF AND
ALSO ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES PERHAPS IMPACTING KCDS LATE SUNDAY
IN PARTICULAR. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /   0  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  20  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  30  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 240240
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
940 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE REGION WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX OVER NEW MEXICO WAS MOVING EAST AND MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
UPPER IMPULSE PROVIDING LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KLBB AND
KPVW TO START BUT WILL QUICKLY EDGE EAST AND MAY APPROACH KCDS AS
WELL BY 01Z-03Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE EXPECT GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS DECK TO RETURN LATER IN THE EVENING. MAY ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS MORE THIS LAYER LIFTING OUT SUNDAY WITH THE 06Z TAF AND
ALSO ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES PERHAPS IMPACTING KCDS LATE SUNDAY
IN PARTICULAR. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /   0  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  20  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  30  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 240240
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
940 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE REGION WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX OVER NEW MEXICO WAS MOVING EAST AND MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
UPPER IMPULSE PROVIDING LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KLBB AND
KPVW TO START BUT WILL QUICKLY EDGE EAST AND MAY APPROACH KCDS AS
WELL BY 01Z-03Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE EXPECT GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS DECK TO RETURN LATER IN THE EVENING. MAY ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS MORE THIS LAYER LIFTING OUT SUNDAY WITH THE 06Z TAF AND
ALSO ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES PERHAPS IMPACTING KCDS LATE SUNDAY
IN PARTICULAR. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /   0  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  20  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  30  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 240240
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
940 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE REGION WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX OVER NEW MEXICO WAS MOVING EAST AND MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
UPPER IMPULSE PROVIDING LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KLBB AND
KPVW TO START BUT WILL QUICKLY EDGE EAST AND MAY APPROACH KCDS AS
WELL BY 01Z-03Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE EXPECT GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS DECK TO RETURN LATER IN THE EVENING. MAY ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS MORE THIS LAYER LIFTING OUT SUNDAY WITH THE 06Z TAF AND
ALSO ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES PERHAPS IMPACTING KCDS LATE SUNDAY
IN PARTICULAR. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /   0  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  20  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  30  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05




000
FXUS64 KMAF 240231
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
931 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated zones/grids as Tornado Watch has expired. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect tonight with redevelopment of rain
possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  83  56  85  /  50  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              61  86  62  86  /  60  20  10  40
CARLSBAD NM                50  86  53  86  /  20   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  63  91  65  90  /  60  10  10  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  88  59  88  /  50  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  77  55  80  /  20   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   53  80  51  82  /  30  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   47  80  43  82  /  30   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  86  61  87  /  50  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  62  85  61  86  /  50  10  10  20
WINK TX                    58  88  55  89  /  40  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 240231
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
931 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated zones/grids as Tornado Watch has expired. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect tonight with redevelopment of rain
possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  83  56  85  /  50  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              61  86  62  86  /  60  20  10  40
CARLSBAD NM                50  86  53  86  /  20   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  63  91  65  90  /  60  10  10  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  88  59  88  /  50  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  77  55  80  /  20   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   53  80  51  82  /  30  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   47  80  43  82  /  30   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  86  61  87  /  50  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  62  85  61  86  /  50  10  10  20
WINK TX                    58  88  55  89  /  40  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KSJT 240204
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
904 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to expire tornado watch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch Number 196 had been allowed to expire.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 240204
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
904 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to expire tornado watch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch Number 196 had been allowed to expire.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KBRO 240017 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
717 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTIVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST MOVE WEST TO EAST
INTO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AERODROMES MAINLY AFTER 06Z...WILL MENTION VCTS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 08Z MFE...09Z HRL AND
10Z AT BRO FOR TSRA...GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA
..WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM CDT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A ROUGHLY
BAFFIN BAY TO SULLIVAN CITY LINE. WITH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NEARLY ALL OF
THE BRO CWFA (EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY) IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INITIATOR FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOOUSLY-MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ONE FINAL 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX ON MON
WHICH WILL GIVE THE STATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF CONV. MEAN RH
FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY BREAK MAINTAINING THE
CONV POTENTIAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL GET IT RIGHT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE WETTER OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODEL SETS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MOST THE CONV REMAINING CONCENTRATED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV AND THE
REST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF SPREAD BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND AS AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. ONCE THIS LAST 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE STATE 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED AND THURS DIMINISHING THE CONV POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
SHALLOWER 500 MB TROUGH THEN PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND SAT WHICH MAY BOOST UP OUR
CONV POTENTIAL A BIT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME 20 TO 30 %
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD STRATEGY. WITH
LINGER CONV POTENTIAL ON MON WILL UNDERCUT MEX/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HERE. THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE GFS MEX
MOS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONV POTENTIAL ON MON.
CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE RAIN CHCS IS ONLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE
SERIOUS MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14
CDT/19 UTC. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTERACTING...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PGF. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL
DAY. THE PGF WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS.

HYDROLOGY...RECENT WATER RELEASES FROM THE EL CUCHILLO AND MARTE
R. GOMEZ RESERVOIRS ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIO
GRANDE. CURRENTLY THE RIVER STAGE AT THE SAN BENITO GAUGE ON THE
RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SAN BENITO GAUGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 47.4 FEET ON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE AT THE
SAN BENITO GAUGE IS 55.0 FEET. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR OFFICE
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV ON THE RIVERS/LAKES SECTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 240017 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
717 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTIVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST MOVE WEST TO EAST
INTO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AERODROMES MAINLY AFTER 06Z...WILL MENTION VCTS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 08Z MFE...09Z HRL AND
10Z AT BRO FOR TSRA...GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA
..WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM CDT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A ROUGHLY
BAFFIN BAY TO SULLIVAN CITY LINE. WITH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NEARLY ALL OF
THE BRO CWFA (EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY) IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INITIATOR FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOOUSLY-MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ONE FINAL 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX ON MON
WHICH WILL GIVE THE STATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF CONV. MEAN RH
FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY BREAK MAINTAINING THE
CONV POTENTIAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL GET IT RIGHT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE WETTER OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODEL SETS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MOST THE CONV REMAINING CONCENTRATED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV AND THE
REST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF SPREAD BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND AS AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. ONCE THIS LAST 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE STATE 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED AND THURS DIMINISHING THE CONV POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
SHALLOWER 500 MB TROUGH THEN PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND SAT WHICH MAY BOOST UP OUR
CONV POTENTIAL A BIT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME 20 TO 30 %
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD STRATEGY. WITH
LINGER CONV POTENTIAL ON MON WILL UNDERCUT MEX/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HERE. THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE GFS MEX
MOS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONV POTENTIAL ON MON.
CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE RAIN CHCS IS ONLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE
SERIOUS MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14
CDT/19 UTC. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTERACTING...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PGF. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL
DAY. THE PGF WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS.

HYDROLOGY...RECENT WATER RELEASES FROM THE EL CUCHILLO AND MARTE
R. GOMEZ RESERVOIRS ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIO
GRANDE. CURRENTLY THE RIVER STAGE AT THE SAN BENITO GAUGE ON THE
RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SAN BENITO GAUGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 47.4 FEET ON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE AT THE
SAN BENITO GAUGE IS 55.0 FEET. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR OFFICE
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV ON THE RIVERS/LAKES SECTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63



000
FXUS64 KBRO 240017 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
717 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTIVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST MOVE WEST TO EAST
INTO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AERODROMES MAINLY AFTER 06Z...WILL MENTION VCTS
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO GROUPS BEGINNING AT 08Z MFE...09Z HRL AND
10Z AT BRO FOR TSRA...GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA
..WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM CDT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A ROUGHLY
BAFFIN BAY TO SULLIVAN CITY LINE. WITH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NEARLY ALL OF
THE BRO CWFA (EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY) IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INITIATOR FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOOUSLY-MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ONE FINAL 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX ON MON
WHICH WILL GIVE THE STATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF CONV. MEAN RH
FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY BREAK MAINTAINING THE
CONV POTENTIAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL GET IT RIGHT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE WETTER OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODEL SETS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MOST THE CONV REMAINING CONCENTRATED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV AND THE
REST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF SPREAD BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND AS AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. ONCE THIS LAST 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE STATE 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED AND THURS DIMINISHING THE CONV POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
SHALLOWER 500 MB TROUGH THEN PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND SAT WHICH MAY BOOST UP OUR
CONV POTENTIAL A BIT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME 20 TO 30 %
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD STRATEGY. WITH
LINGER CONV POTENTIAL ON MON WILL UNDERCUT MEX/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HERE. THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE GFS MEX
MOS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONV POTENTIAL ON MON.
CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE RAIN CHCS IS ONLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE
SERIOUS MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14
CDT/19 UTC. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTERACTING...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PGF. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL
DAY. THE PGF WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS.

HYDROLOGY...RECENT WATER RELEASES FROM THE EL CUCHILLO AND MARTE
R. GOMEZ RESERVOIRS ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIO
GRANDE. CURRENTLY THE RIVER STAGE AT THE SAN BENITO GAUGE ON THE
RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SAN BENITO GAUGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 47.4 FEET ON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE AT THE
SAN BENITO GAUGE IS 55.0 FEET. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR OFFICE
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV ON THE RIVERS/LAKES SECTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KLUB 240012
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
712 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
UPPER IMPULSE PROVIDING LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KLBB AND
KPVW TO START BUT WILL QUICKLY EDGE EAST AND MAY APPROACH KCDS AS
WELL BY 01Z-03Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE EXPECT GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS DECK TO RETURN LATER IN THE EVENING. MAY ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS MORE THIS LAYER LIFTING OUT SUNDAY WITH THE 06Z TAF AND
ALSO ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES PERHAPS IMPACTING KCDS LATE SUNDAY
IN PARTICULAR. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /  20  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  30  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  30  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  30  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  40  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ024>026-
030>032-036>038-041>044.

&&

$$

99/99/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 240012
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
712 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
UPPER IMPULSE PROVIDING LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KLBB AND
KPVW TO START BUT WILL QUICKLY EDGE EAST AND MAY APPROACH KCDS AS
WELL BY 01Z-03Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE EXPECT GOOD POSSIBILITY OF
STRATUS DECK TO RETURN LATER IN THE EVENING. MAY ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS MORE THIS LAYER LIFTING OUT SUNDAY WITH THE 06Z TAF AND
ALSO ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES PERHAPS IMPACTING KCDS LATE SUNDAY
IN PARTICULAR. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /  20  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  30  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  30  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  30  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  40  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ024>026-
030>032-036>038-041>044.

&&

$$

99/99/05



000
FXUS64 KAMA 240006 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
706 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH 194 TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM CDT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON. WILL RETAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN
SECTIONS UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR
TONIGHT ARE PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST TO
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 00Z MONDAY...HOWEVER IT MAY
ALSO STALL NEAR THE CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH DALHART AND
GUYMON TAF SITES WELL WEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 01Z TO 03Z SUNDAY AT MAINLY
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST FOR
NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MAY BE INSERTED LATER THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 01Z SUNDAY...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SEE TORNADO WATCH 194 FOR
DETAILS.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM
FOR EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$

02/99






000
FXUS64 KAMA 240006 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
706 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH 194 TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM CDT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON. WILL RETAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN
SECTIONS UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR
TONIGHT ARE PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST TO
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 00Z MONDAY...HOWEVER IT MAY
ALSO STALL NEAR THE CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH DALHART AND
GUYMON TAF SITES WELL WEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 01Z TO 03Z SUNDAY AT MAINLY
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST FOR
NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MAY BE INSERTED LATER THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 01Z SUNDAY...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SEE TORNADO WATCH 194 FOR
DETAILS.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM
FOR EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$

02/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 240006 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
706 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH 194 TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM CDT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON. WILL RETAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN
SECTIONS UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR
TONIGHT ARE PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST TO
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 00Z MONDAY...HOWEVER IT MAY
ALSO STALL NEAR THE CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH DALHART AND
GUYMON TAF SITES WELL WEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 01Z TO 03Z SUNDAY AT MAINLY
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST FOR
NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MAY BE INSERTED LATER THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 01Z SUNDAY...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SEE TORNADO WATCH 194 FOR
DETAILS.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM
FOR EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$

02/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 240006 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
706 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH 194 TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM CDT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON. WILL RETAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ERN
SECTIONS UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR
TONIGHT ARE PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST TO
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 00Z MONDAY...HOWEVER IT MAY
ALSO STALL NEAR THE CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH DALHART AND
GUYMON TAF SITES WELL WEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 01Z TO 03Z SUNDAY AT MAINLY
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST FOR
NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MAY BE INSERTED LATER THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 01Z SUNDAY...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SEE TORNADO WATCH 194 FOR
DETAILS.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM
FOR EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$

02/99






000
FXUS64 KEWX 232349
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
649 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
STORMS HAVE CLEARED THE DRT AREA FOR THE TIME BEING BUT HAVE KEPT
IN CHANCES FOR LATER TONIGHT. SAT/SSF WILL BE IMPACTED BY MORE
STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AND AUSTIN A BIT LONGER. BUT
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THESE I-35 TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS SHAPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ON SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS IS THE START OF A LARGE LINEAR MCS THAT ALL OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR
THIS MCS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH
THE MORNING DRT AND CRP SOUNDINGS BOTH HAVING 2000 - 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
BREAKDOWN THE THREATS AND THE TIME PERIODS IN THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AFD.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP
A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS CONTINUES TO GET EARLIER. THE NSSL WRF
AND ARM BOTH HAVE THE LINE APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR AND NMM ALL SAY THAT
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 9PM AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE EARLIER
TIMING IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
ONTO 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION. THIS...ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TODAY...AND THE FACT THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED WILL LEAD TO
THE THREAT OF BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. WHILE CONVECTION GROUPING
TOGETHER LIKE THIS TYPICAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
A LITTLE BIT LESS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRST DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE HRRR ACTUAL SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SECTIONS BEING SHOWN IN THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WINDS PROFILES TURN
WITH HEIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THOSE OUT AND
ABOUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON LOCAL RIVERS
AND LAKES...MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

AS WE GET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS NOW
SHOW THE LINE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA BY 09Z TO 12Z (4 TO 7 AM).
BEHIND THE LINE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT WORKED OVER FROM
THE NIGHT OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 3000 J/KG
OF CAPE...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAYS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE ARM/NMM/NSSL WRF DO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

TO SUMMARIZE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. THE LINE SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXIST WITH THE LINE. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEATHER AWARE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ON
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND
STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM AROUND LUNCH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF (FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGEST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WOULD POSSIBLE NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
RETURN ON MONDAY. SPC HAS THE AREA CURRENTLY BLANKETED IN A DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORM
MODE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AS CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR MCS STORM MODES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY CLOSELY. STRESSING
AGAIN...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE THEY ARE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TUESDAY IS MORE ZONAL WITH SOME SLIGHT
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER REDUCTION IN POP
CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST RETURNING THE AREA TO A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  81  70  81  69 /  90  70  30  70  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  82  69  81  68 /  90  70  30  70  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  83  69  81  70 /  90  70  40  70  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  81  69  80  67 /  90  70  30  70  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  90  71  89  69 /  60  30  20  50  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  80  69  80  68 /  90  70  30  70  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  85  70  83  69 /  90  40  30  70  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  82  69  81  69 /  90  70  40  70  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  82  71  82  71 /  80  80  60  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  84  71  82  71 /  90  60  40  70  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  84  71  83  71 /  90  60  40  70  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 232349
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
649 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
STORMS HAVE CLEARED THE DRT AREA FOR THE TIME BEING BUT HAVE KEPT
IN CHANCES FOR LATER TONIGHT. SAT/SSF WILL BE IMPACTED BY MORE
STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AND AUSTIN A BIT LONGER. BUT
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THESE I-35 TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS SHAPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ON SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS IS THE START OF A LARGE LINEAR MCS THAT ALL OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR
THIS MCS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH
THE MORNING DRT AND CRP SOUNDINGS BOTH HAVING 2000 - 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
BREAKDOWN THE THREATS AND THE TIME PERIODS IN THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AFD.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP
A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS CONTINUES TO GET EARLIER. THE NSSL WRF
AND ARM BOTH HAVE THE LINE APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR AND NMM ALL SAY THAT
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 9PM AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE EARLIER
TIMING IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
ONTO 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION. THIS...ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TODAY...AND THE FACT THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED WILL LEAD TO
THE THREAT OF BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. WHILE CONVECTION GROUPING
TOGETHER LIKE THIS TYPICAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
A LITTLE BIT LESS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRST DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE HRRR ACTUAL SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SECTIONS BEING SHOWN IN THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WINDS PROFILES TURN
WITH HEIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THOSE OUT AND
ABOUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON LOCAL RIVERS
AND LAKES...MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

AS WE GET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS NOW
SHOW THE LINE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA BY 09Z TO 12Z (4 TO 7 AM).
BEHIND THE LINE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT WORKED OVER FROM
THE NIGHT OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 3000 J/KG
OF CAPE...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAYS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE ARM/NMM/NSSL WRF DO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

TO SUMMARIZE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. THE LINE SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXIST WITH THE LINE. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEATHER AWARE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ON
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND
STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM AROUND LUNCH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF (FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGEST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WOULD POSSIBLE NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
RETURN ON MONDAY. SPC HAS THE AREA CURRENTLY BLANKETED IN A DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORM
MODE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AS CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR MCS STORM MODES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY CLOSELY. STRESSING
AGAIN...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE THEY ARE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TUESDAY IS MORE ZONAL WITH SOME SLIGHT
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER REDUCTION IN POP
CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST RETURNING THE AREA TO A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  81  70  81  69 /  90  70  30  70  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  82  69  81  68 /  90  70  30  70  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  83  69  81  70 /  90  70  40  70  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  81  69  80  67 /  90  70  30  70  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  90  71  89  69 /  60  30  20  50  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  80  69  80  68 /  90  70  30  70  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  85  70  83  69 /  90  40  30  70  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  82  69  81  69 /  90  70  40  70  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  82  71  82  71 /  80  80  60  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  84  71  82  71 /  90  60  40  70  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  84  71  83  71 /  90  60  40  70  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 232349
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
649 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
STORMS HAVE CLEARED THE DRT AREA FOR THE TIME BEING BUT HAVE KEPT
IN CHANCES FOR LATER TONIGHT. SAT/SSF WILL BE IMPACTED BY MORE
STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AND AUSTIN A BIT LONGER. BUT
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THESE I-35 TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS SHAPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ON SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS IS THE START OF A LARGE LINEAR MCS THAT ALL OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR
THIS MCS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH
THE MORNING DRT AND CRP SOUNDINGS BOTH HAVING 2000 - 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
BREAKDOWN THE THREATS AND THE TIME PERIODS IN THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AFD.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP
A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS CONTINUES TO GET EARLIER. THE NSSL WRF
AND ARM BOTH HAVE THE LINE APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR AND NMM ALL SAY THAT
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 9PM AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE EARLIER
TIMING IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
ONTO 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION. THIS...ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TODAY...AND THE FACT THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED WILL LEAD TO
THE THREAT OF BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. WHILE CONVECTION GROUPING
TOGETHER LIKE THIS TYPICAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
A LITTLE BIT LESS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRST DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE HRRR ACTUAL SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SECTIONS BEING SHOWN IN THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WINDS PROFILES TURN
WITH HEIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THOSE OUT AND
ABOUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON LOCAL RIVERS
AND LAKES...MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

AS WE GET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS NOW
SHOW THE LINE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA BY 09Z TO 12Z (4 TO 7 AM).
BEHIND THE LINE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT WORKED OVER FROM
THE NIGHT OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 3000 J/KG
OF CAPE...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAYS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE ARM/NMM/NSSL WRF DO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

TO SUMMARIZE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. THE LINE SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXIST WITH THE LINE. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEATHER AWARE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ON
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND
STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM AROUND LUNCH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF (FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGEST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WOULD POSSIBLE NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
RETURN ON MONDAY. SPC HAS THE AREA CURRENTLY BLANKETED IN A DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORM
MODE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AS CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR MCS STORM MODES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY CLOSELY. STRESSING
AGAIN...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE THEY ARE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TUESDAY IS MORE ZONAL WITH SOME SLIGHT
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER REDUCTION IN POP
CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST RETURNING THE AREA TO A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  81  70  81  69 /  90  70  30  70  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  82  69  81  68 /  90  70  30  70  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  83  69  81  70 /  90  70  40  70  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  81  69  80  67 /  90  70  30  70  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  90  71  89  69 /  60  30  20  50  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  80  69  80  68 /  90  70  30  70  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  85  70  83  69 /  90  40  30  70  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  82  69  81  69 /  90  70  40  70  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  82  71  82  71 /  80  80  60  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  84  71  82  71 /  90  60  40  70  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  84  71  83  71 /  90  60  40  70  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 232349
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
649 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
STORMS HAVE CLEARED THE DRT AREA FOR THE TIME BEING BUT HAVE KEPT
IN CHANCES FOR LATER TONIGHT. SAT/SSF WILL BE IMPACTED BY MORE
STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AND AUSTIN A BIT LONGER. BUT
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THESE I-35 TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS SHAPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ON SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS IS THE START OF A LARGE LINEAR MCS THAT ALL OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR
THIS MCS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH
THE MORNING DRT AND CRP SOUNDINGS BOTH HAVING 2000 - 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
BREAKDOWN THE THREATS AND THE TIME PERIODS IN THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AFD.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP
A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS CONTINUES TO GET EARLIER. THE NSSL WRF
AND ARM BOTH HAVE THE LINE APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR AND NMM ALL SAY THAT
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 9PM AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE EARLIER
TIMING IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
ONTO 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION. THIS...ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TODAY...AND THE FACT THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED WILL LEAD TO
THE THREAT OF BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. WHILE CONVECTION GROUPING
TOGETHER LIKE THIS TYPICAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
A LITTLE BIT LESS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRST DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE HRRR ACTUAL SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SECTIONS BEING SHOWN IN THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WINDS PROFILES TURN
WITH HEIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THOSE OUT AND
ABOUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON LOCAL RIVERS
AND LAKES...MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

AS WE GET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS NOW
SHOW THE LINE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA BY 09Z TO 12Z (4 TO 7 AM).
BEHIND THE LINE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT WORKED OVER FROM
THE NIGHT OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 3000 J/KG
OF CAPE...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAYS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE ARM/NMM/NSSL WRF DO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

TO SUMMARIZE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. THE LINE SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXIST WITH THE LINE. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEATHER AWARE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ON
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND
STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM AROUND LUNCH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF (FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGEST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WOULD POSSIBLE NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
RETURN ON MONDAY. SPC HAS THE AREA CURRENTLY BLANKETED IN A DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORM
MODE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AS CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR MCS STORM MODES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY CLOSELY. STRESSING
AGAIN...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE THEY ARE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TUESDAY IS MORE ZONAL WITH SOME SLIGHT
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER REDUCTION IN POP
CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST RETURNING THE AREA TO A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  81  70  81  69 /  90  70  30  70  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  82  69  81  68 /  90  70  30  70  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  83  69  81  70 /  90  70  40  70  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  81  69  80  67 /  90  70  30  70  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  90  71  89  69 /  60  30  20  50  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  80  69  80  68 /  90  70  30  70  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  85  70  83  69 /  90  40  30  70  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  82  69  81  69 /  90  70  40  70  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  82  71  82  71 /  80  80  60  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  84  71  82  71 /  90  60  40  70  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  84  71  83  71 /  90  60  40  70  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 232349
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
649 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
STORMS HAVE CLEARED THE DRT AREA FOR THE TIME BEING BUT HAVE KEPT
IN CHANCES FOR LATER TONIGHT. SAT/SSF WILL BE IMPACTED BY MORE
STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AND AUSTIN A BIT LONGER. BUT
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THESE I-35 TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS SHAPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ON SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS IS THE START OF A LARGE LINEAR MCS THAT ALL OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR
THIS MCS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH
THE MORNING DRT AND CRP SOUNDINGS BOTH HAVING 2000 - 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
BREAKDOWN THE THREATS AND THE TIME PERIODS IN THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AFD.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP
A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS CONTINUES TO GET EARLIER. THE NSSL WRF
AND ARM BOTH HAVE THE LINE APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR AND NMM ALL SAY THAT
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 9PM AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE EARLIER
TIMING IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
ONTO 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION. THIS...ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TODAY...AND THE FACT THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED WILL LEAD TO
THE THREAT OF BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. WHILE CONVECTION GROUPING
TOGETHER LIKE THIS TYPICAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
A LITTLE BIT LESS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRST DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE HRRR ACTUAL SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SECTIONS BEING SHOWN IN THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WINDS PROFILES TURN
WITH HEIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THOSE OUT AND
ABOUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON LOCAL RIVERS
AND LAKES...MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

AS WE GET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS NOW
SHOW THE LINE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA BY 09Z TO 12Z (4 TO 7 AM).
BEHIND THE LINE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT WORKED OVER FROM
THE NIGHT OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 3000 J/KG
OF CAPE...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAYS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE ARM/NMM/NSSL WRF DO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

TO SUMMARIZE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. THE LINE SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXIST WITH THE LINE. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEATHER AWARE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ON
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND
STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM AROUND LUNCH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF (FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGEST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WOULD POSSIBLE NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
RETURN ON MONDAY. SPC HAS THE AREA CURRENTLY BLANKETED IN A DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORM
MODE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AS CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR MCS STORM MODES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY CLOSELY. STRESSING
AGAIN...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE THEY ARE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TUESDAY IS MORE ZONAL WITH SOME SLIGHT
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER REDUCTION IN POP
CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST RETURNING THE AREA TO A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  81  70  81  69 /  90  70  30  70  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  82  69  81  68 /  90  70  30  70  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  83  69  81  70 /  90  70  40  70  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  81  69  80  67 /  90  70  30  70  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  90  71  89  69 /  60  30  20  50  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  80  69  80  68 /  90  70  30  70  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  85  70  83  69 /  90  40  30  70  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  82  69  81  69 /  90  70  40  70  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  82  71  82  71 /  80  80  60  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  84  71  82  71 /  90  60  40  70  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  84  71  83  71 /  90  60  40  70  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 232349
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
649 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
STORMS HAVE CLEARED THE DRT AREA FOR THE TIME BEING BUT HAVE KEPT
IN CHANCES FOR LATER TONIGHT. SAT/SSF WILL BE IMPACTED BY MORE
STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AND AUSTIN A BIT LONGER. BUT
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THESE I-35 TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS SHAPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ON SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS IS THE START OF A LARGE LINEAR MCS THAT ALL OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR
THIS MCS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH
THE MORNING DRT AND CRP SOUNDINGS BOTH HAVING 2000 - 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
BREAKDOWN THE THREATS AND THE TIME PERIODS IN THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AFD.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP
A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS CONTINUES TO GET EARLIER. THE NSSL WRF
AND ARM BOTH HAVE THE LINE APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR AND NMM ALL SAY THAT
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 9PM AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE EARLIER
TIMING IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
ONTO 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION. THIS...ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TODAY...AND THE FACT THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED WILL LEAD TO
THE THREAT OF BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. WHILE CONVECTION GROUPING
TOGETHER LIKE THIS TYPICAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
A LITTLE BIT LESS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRST DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE HRRR ACTUAL SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SECTIONS BEING SHOWN IN THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WINDS PROFILES TURN
WITH HEIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THOSE OUT AND
ABOUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON LOCAL RIVERS
AND LAKES...MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

AS WE GET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS NOW
SHOW THE LINE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA BY 09Z TO 12Z (4 TO 7 AM).
BEHIND THE LINE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT WORKED OVER FROM
THE NIGHT OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 3000 J/KG
OF CAPE...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAYS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE ARM/NMM/NSSL WRF DO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

TO SUMMARIZE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. THE LINE SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXIST WITH THE LINE. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEATHER AWARE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ON
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND
STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM AROUND LUNCH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF (FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGEST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WOULD POSSIBLE NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
RETURN ON MONDAY. SPC HAS THE AREA CURRENTLY BLANKETED IN A DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORM
MODE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AS CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR MCS STORM MODES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY CLOSELY. STRESSING
AGAIN...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE THEY ARE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TUESDAY IS MORE ZONAL WITH SOME SLIGHT
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER REDUCTION IN POP
CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST RETURNING THE AREA TO A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  81  70  81  69 /  90  70  30  70  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  82  69  81  68 /  90  70  30  70  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  83  69  81  70 /  90  70  40  70  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  81  69  80  67 /  90  70  30  70  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  90  71  89  69 /  60  30  20  50  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  80  69  80  68 /  90  70  30  70  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  85  70  83  69 /  90  40  30  70  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  82  69  81  69 /  90  70  40  70  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  82  71  82  71 /  80  80  60  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  84  71  82  71 /  90  60  40  70  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  84  71  83  71 /  90  60  40  70  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KCRP 232348
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE NORTH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF S TX IN A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CDT.
CONVECTION OVER MEX AND THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING WIND DAMAGE
FROM STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLASH
FLOODING WITH A SECONDARY THREAT POSSIBLY BEING HAIL BUT IS LESS
LIKELY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. ALSO SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS S TX ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
EXPECTED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVG ACROSS S TX FROM MEX. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST TOWARD SUNRISE WITH A LULL
IN THE CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
TIMING OF BEST CHC FOR STRONGEST STORMS FOLLOWED WITH VCSH BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY AND NO MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY UNLESS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES BEHIND TONIGHTS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...VFR
THIS EVENING...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT THEN BACK TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE/WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND EARLY
SUNDAY. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO ADDITIONAL
LINES FORMING TO THE WEST IN MX. ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRAIN
OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS AND COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOOD EVENT OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND FLOODED RIVER
BASINS. ATMOS IS ALSO VERY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WE`LL SEE ON SUNDAY GIVEN
THE ATMOS SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER
MODELS ALL SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY RE-DEVELOPING BY AFTN. IF
CONVECTION FIRES ALONG ANY LEFT-OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IT COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH FLASH FLOODING A CONTINUING THREAT.
ANOTHER S/W ON MONDAY WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...(MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WHERE
THE SHORT TERM LEFT OFF...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER. WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND VERY HIGH
WATER CONTENT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

BEGINNING TUESDAY UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT CONTINUING
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH MUCH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMALS FOR LATE
MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  84  76  85  77  /  70  70  60  60  50
VICTORIA          72  82  73  83  73  /  80  80  60  60  60
LAREDO            71  90  74  91  75  /  80  30  30  40  40
ALICE             74  86  74  87  76  /  70  60  50  60  50
ROCKPORT          77  83  77  83  77  /  70  80  60  60  60
COTULLA           70  88  72  87  72  /  90  40  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        75  86  75  86  77  /  70  60  50  60  50
NAVY CORPUS       76  83  77  83  78  /  70  70  60  60  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 232348
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE NORTH
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF S TX IN A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 3 AM CDT.
CONVECTION OVER MEX AND THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING WIND DAMAGE
FROM STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLASH
FLOODING WITH A SECONDARY THREAT POSSIBLY BEING HAIL BUT IS LESS
LIKELY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. ALSO SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS S TX ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
EXPECTED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVG ACROSS S TX FROM MEX. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST TOWARD SUNRISE WITH A LULL
IN THE CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE. HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR
TIMING OF BEST CHC FOR STRONGEST STORMS FOLLOWED WITH VCSH BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY AND NO MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY UNLESS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES BEHIND TONIGHTS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...VFR
THIS EVENING...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT THEN BACK TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE/WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND EARLY
SUNDAY. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO ADDITIONAL
LINES FORMING TO THE WEST IN MX. ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRAIN
OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS AND COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOOD EVENT OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND FLOODED RIVER
BASINS. ATMOS IS ALSO VERY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WE`LL SEE ON SUNDAY GIVEN
THE ATMOS SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER
MODELS ALL SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY RE-DEVELOPING BY AFTN. IF
CONVECTION FIRES ALONG ANY LEFT-OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IT COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH FLASH FLOODING A CONTINUING THREAT.
ANOTHER S/W ON MONDAY WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...(MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WHERE
THE SHORT TERM LEFT OFF...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER. WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND VERY HIGH
WATER CONTENT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

BEGINNING TUESDAY UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT CONTINUING
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH MUCH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMALS FOR LATE
MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  84  76  85  77  /  70  70  60  60  50
VICTORIA          72  82  73  83  73  /  80  80  60  60  60
LAREDO            71  90  74  91  75  /  80  30  30  40  40
ALICE             74  86  74  87  76  /  70  60  50  60  50
ROCKPORT          77  83  77  83  77  /  70  80  60  60  60
COTULLA           70  88  72  87  72  /  90  40  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        75  86  75  86  77  /  70  60  50  60  50
NAVY CORPUS       76  83  77  83  78  /  70  70  60  60  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KFWD 232348 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...

ACTIVE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC IN DESIGNING
ACCURATE TAFS THROUGH 4Z AT LEAST. HAVE TAKEN THE APPROACH OF
PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS/CIGS DURING CONVECTION WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING HAVE ALSO BEEN A
CONCERN DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL BE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...SO WILL LIKELY EXTEND THE AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING THROUGH
01Z.

THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTIVE ACTIVE WITH EXTENDED
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...LOTS OF LIGHTNING AND
MAYBE SOME GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE MVFR CIGS GOING IFR DURING THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS VISIBILITIES ALSO. DO NOT SEE A
LET UP IN TONIGHTS CONVECTION UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING...THEN
END WITH VFR CIGS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEATING MAY
PRODUCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX THAT
NEARS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO KDFW SUNDAY
EVENING AROUND 04Z. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. LOCAL OBJECTIVE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOW INDICATING
INHIBITION IS NEAR 0 OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LIKELY NOW
PUSHING 2 INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS INCLUDING UNDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-40KT IN THE LOW LEVELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES WHERE WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FIELDS
ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES NOW PUSHING 2000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-20. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX...WHERE ANY DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS AREA MAY TRY TO
ROTATE AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
LOWER DUE TO WIDESPREAD/MESSY STORM COVERAGE...BUT STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE QUICK ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT MOST
IMPORTANTLY...A LINE OF STORMS...OR MCS...HAS DEVELOPED IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. A
STRONG COLD POOL HAS FORMED WITH THIS MCS WHICH IS CAUSING ITS
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...IT SHOULD REACH
THE NW ZONES AROUND 9 PM. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE THAT FOCUSES THE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS CELLS WILL
TRAIN OR BACKBUILD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. WE STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. AS THE NIGHTTIME PROGRESSES...THE MCS AND THE CONVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD FORM A SOLID NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF
RAIN/STORMS THAT MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE 2-3 INCH
TOTALS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-20 THAN SOUTH. SOME LOW SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES
EAST...BUT THE TIME OF DAY AND STORM MODE SUGGESTS JUST A VERY
MARGINAL WIND THREAT.

THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG FORCING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF I-35. SOME SUNSHINE
MAY OCCUR OUT WEST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS AFTER THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

ON MONDAY...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT A
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE LIKELY RESULT WOULD BE A MCS/SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ROUND WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...AGAIN MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY
STILL BE IN FLUX...AS SUNDAY/S ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS MAY IMPACT THE
FAVORABLE ZONE FOR WHERE MONDAY/S ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND TRACK.

MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK/BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
DEVELOPING AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG OVER THE AREA. A DRY LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE
NEAR THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...IF THE FORECASTED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VERIFIES...IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO GIVEN A SLOW
MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS...THE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT IS ASSURED. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INTEREST...EVEN THOUGH POPS ARE ONLY
20-30 PERCENT.

CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...BUT NOT AS BAD AS ON TUESDAY. FORCING
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK...AND THEREFORE ONLY
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UNORGANIZED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM....BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE
DETAILS NOW.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
WACO, TX              70  78  69  81  67 /  80  80  30  80  50
PARIS, TX             68  74  67  79  65 /  60  90  50  60  60
DENTON, TX            67  76  66  80  66 /  90  80  30  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          67  75  67  79  66 /  80  90  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
TERRELL, TX           69  74  69  80  67 /  70  80  40  70  50
CORSICANA, TX         70  76  70  80  67 /  70  80  40  80  60
TEMPLE, TX            70  79  69  81  67 /  80  70  30  80  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  79  67  81  64 / 100  70  20  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

75




000
FXUS64 KFWD 232348 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...

ACTIVE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC IN DESIGNING
ACCURATE TAFS THROUGH 4Z AT LEAST. HAVE TAKEN THE APPROACH OF
PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS/CIGS DURING CONVECTION WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING HAVE ALSO BEEN A
CONCERN DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL BE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...SO WILL LIKELY EXTEND THE AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING THROUGH
01Z.

THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTIVE ACTIVE WITH EXTENDED
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...LOTS OF LIGHTNING AND
MAYBE SOME GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE MVFR CIGS GOING IFR DURING THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS VISIBILITIES ALSO. DO NOT SEE A
LET UP IN TONIGHTS CONVECTION UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING...THEN
END WITH VFR CIGS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEATING MAY
PRODUCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX THAT
NEARS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO KDFW SUNDAY
EVENING AROUND 04Z. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. LOCAL OBJECTIVE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOW INDICATING
INHIBITION IS NEAR 0 OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LIKELY NOW
PUSHING 2 INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS INCLUDING UNDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-40KT IN THE LOW LEVELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES WHERE WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FIELDS
ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES NOW PUSHING 2000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-20. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX...WHERE ANY DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS AREA MAY TRY TO
ROTATE AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
LOWER DUE TO WIDESPREAD/MESSY STORM COVERAGE...BUT STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE QUICK ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT MOST
IMPORTANTLY...A LINE OF STORMS...OR MCS...HAS DEVELOPED IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. A
STRONG COLD POOL HAS FORMED WITH THIS MCS WHICH IS CAUSING ITS
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...IT SHOULD REACH
THE NW ZONES AROUND 9 PM. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE THAT FOCUSES THE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS CELLS WILL
TRAIN OR BACKBUILD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. WE STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. AS THE NIGHTTIME PROGRESSES...THE MCS AND THE CONVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD FORM A SOLID NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF
RAIN/STORMS THAT MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE 2-3 INCH
TOTALS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-20 THAN SOUTH. SOME LOW SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES
EAST...BUT THE TIME OF DAY AND STORM MODE SUGGESTS JUST A VERY
MARGINAL WIND THREAT.

THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG FORCING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF I-35. SOME SUNSHINE
MAY OCCUR OUT WEST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS AFTER THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

ON MONDAY...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT A
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE LIKELY RESULT WOULD BE A MCS/SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ROUND WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...AGAIN MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY
STILL BE IN FLUX...AS SUNDAY/S ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS MAY IMPACT THE
FAVORABLE ZONE FOR WHERE MONDAY/S ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND TRACK.

MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK/BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
DEVELOPING AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG OVER THE AREA. A DRY LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE
NEAR THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...IF THE FORECASTED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VERIFIES...IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO GIVEN A SLOW
MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS...THE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT IS ASSURED. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INTEREST...EVEN THOUGH POPS ARE ONLY
20-30 PERCENT.

CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...BUT NOT AS BAD AS ON TUESDAY. FORCING
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK...AND THEREFORE ONLY
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UNORGANIZED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM....BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE
DETAILS NOW.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
WACO, TX              70  78  69  81  67 /  80  80  30  80  50
PARIS, TX             68  74  67  79  65 /  60  90  50  60  60
DENTON, TX            67  76  66  80  66 /  90  80  30  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          67  75  67  79  66 /  80  90  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
TERRELL, TX           69  74  69  80  67 /  70  80  40  70  50
CORSICANA, TX         70  76  70  80  67 /  70  80  40  80  60
TEMPLE, TX            70  79  69  81  67 /  80  70  30  80  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  79  67  81  64 / 100  70  20  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

75



000
FXUS64 KFWD 232348
AFDFWD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...

ACTIVE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC IN DESIGNING
ACCURATE TAFS THROUGH 4Z AT LEAST. HAVE TAKEN THE APPROACH OF
PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS/CIGS DURING CONVECTION WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING HAVE ALSO BEEN A
CONCERN DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL BE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...SO WILL LIKELY EXTEND THE AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING THROUGH
01Z.

THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTIVE ACTIVE WITH EXTENDED
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...LOTS OF LIGHTNING AND
MAYBE SOME GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE MVFR CIGS GOING IFR DURING THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS VISIBILITIES ALSO. DO NOT SEE A
LET UP IN TONIGHTS CONVECTION UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING...THEN
END WITH VFR CIGS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEATING MAY
PRODUCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX THAT
NEARS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO KDFW SUNDAY
EVENING AROUND 04Z. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. LOCAL OBJECTIVE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOW INDICATING
INHIBITION IS NEAR 0 OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LIKELY NOW
PUSHING 2 INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS INCLUDING UNDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-40KT IN THE LOW LEVELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES WHERE WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FIELDS
ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES NOW PUSHING 2000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-20. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX...WHERE ANY DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS AREA MAY TRY TO
ROTATE AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
LOWER DUE TO WIDESPREAD/MESSY STORM COVERAGE...BUT STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE QUICK ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT MOST
IMPORTANTLY...A LINE OF STORMS...OR MCS...HAS DEVELOPED IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. A
STRONG COLD POOL HAS FORMED WITH THIS MCS WHICH IS CAUSING ITS
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...IT SHOULD REACH
THE NW ZONES AROUND 9 PM. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE THAT FOCUSES THE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS CELLS WILL
TRAIN OR BACKBUILD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. WE STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. AS THE NIGHTTIME PROGRESSES...THE MCS AND THE CONVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD FORM A SOLID NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF
RAIN/STORMS THAT MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE 2-3 INCH
TOTALS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-20 THAN SOUTH. SOME LOW SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES
EAST...BUT THE TIME OF DAY AND STORM MODE SUGGESTS JUST A VERY
MARGINAL WIND THREAT.

THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG FORCING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF I-35. SOME SUNSHINE
MAY OCCUR OUT WEST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS AFTER THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

ON MONDAY...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT A
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE LIKELY RESULT WOULD BE A MCS/SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ROUND WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...AGAIN MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY
STILL BE IN FLUX...AS SUNDAY/S ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS MAY IMPACT THE
FAVORABLE ZONE FOR WHERE MONDAY/S ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND TRACK.

MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK/BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
DEVELOPING AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG OVER THE AREA. A DRY LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE
NEAR THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...IF THE FORECASTED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VERIFIES...IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO GIVEN A SLOW
MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS...THE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT IS ASSURED. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INTEREST...EVEN THOUGH POPS ARE ONLY
20-30 PERCENT.

CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...BUT NOT AS BAD AS ON TUESDAY. FORCING
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK...AND THEREFORE ONLY
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UNORGANIZED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM....BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE
DETAILS NOW.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
WACO, TX              70  78  69  81  67 /  80  80  30  80  50
PARIS, TX             68  74  67  79  65 /  60  90  50  60  60
DENTON, TX            67  76  66  80  66 /  90  80  30  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          67  75  67  79  66 /  80  90  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
TERRELL, TX           69  74  69  80  67 /  70  80  40  70  50
CORSICANA, TX         70  76  70  80  67 /  70  80  40  80  60
TEMPLE, TX            70  79  69  81  67 /  80  70  30  80  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  79  67  81  64 / 100  70  20  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

75





000
FXUS64 KFWD 232348
AFDFWD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
648 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...

ACTIVE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC IN DESIGNING
ACCURATE TAFS THROUGH 4Z AT LEAST. HAVE TAKEN THE APPROACH OF
PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS/CIGS DURING CONVECTION WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING HAVE ALSO BEEN A
CONCERN DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL BE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...SO WILL LIKELY EXTEND THE AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING THROUGH
01Z.

THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTIVE ACTIVE WITH EXTENDED
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...LOTS OF LIGHTNING AND
MAYBE SOME GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE MVFR CIGS GOING IFR DURING THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS VISIBILITIES ALSO. DO NOT SEE A
LET UP IN TONIGHTS CONVECTION UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING...THEN
END WITH VFR CIGS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEATING MAY
PRODUCE CONVECTION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX THAT
NEARS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO KDFW SUNDAY
EVENING AROUND 04Z. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. LOCAL OBJECTIVE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOW INDICATING
INHIBITION IS NEAR 0 OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LIKELY NOW
PUSHING 2 INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS INCLUDING UNDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-40KT IN THE LOW LEVELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES WHERE WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FIELDS
ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES NOW PUSHING 2000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-20. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX...WHERE ANY DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS AREA MAY TRY TO
ROTATE AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
LOWER DUE TO WIDESPREAD/MESSY STORM COVERAGE...BUT STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE QUICK ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT MOST
IMPORTANTLY...A LINE OF STORMS...OR MCS...HAS DEVELOPED IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. A
STRONG COLD POOL HAS FORMED WITH THIS MCS WHICH IS CAUSING ITS
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...IT SHOULD REACH
THE NW ZONES AROUND 9 PM. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE THAT FOCUSES THE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS CELLS WILL
TRAIN OR BACKBUILD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. WE STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. AS THE NIGHTTIME PROGRESSES...THE MCS AND THE CONVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD FORM A SOLID NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF
RAIN/STORMS THAT MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE 2-3 INCH
TOTALS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-20 THAN SOUTH. SOME LOW SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES
EAST...BUT THE TIME OF DAY AND STORM MODE SUGGESTS JUST A VERY
MARGINAL WIND THREAT.

THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG FORCING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF I-35. SOME SUNSHINE
MAY OCCUR OUT WEST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS AFTER THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

ON MONDAY...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT A
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE LIKELY RESULT WOULD BE A MCS/SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ROUND WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...AGAIN MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY
STILL BE IN FLUX...AS SUNDAY/S ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS MAY IMPACT THE
FAVORABLE ZONE FOR WHERE MONDAY/S ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND TRACK.

MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK/BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
DEVELOPING AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG OVER THE AREA. A DRY LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE
NEAR THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...IF THE FORECASTED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VERIFIES...IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO GIVEN A SLOW
MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS...THE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT IS ASSURED. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INTEREST...EVEN THOUGH POPS ARE ONLY
20-30 PERCENT.

CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...BUT NOT AS BAD AS ON TUESDAY. FORCING
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK...AND THEREFORE ONLY
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UNORGANIZED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM....BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE
DETAILS NOW.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
WACO, TX              70  78  69  81  67 /  80  80  30  80  50
PARIS, TX             68  74  67  79  65 /  60  90  50  60  60
DENTON, TX            67  76  66  80  66 /  90  80  30  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          67  75  67  79  66 /  80  90  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
TERRELL, TX           69  74  69  80  67 /  70  80  40  70  50
CORSICANA, TX         70  76  70  80  67 /  70  80  40  80  60
TEMPLE, TX            70  79  69  81  67 /  80  70  30  80  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  79  67  81  64 / 100  70  20  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

75





000
FXUS64 KHGX 232339
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
THE FLASH WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH THE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING TIME (GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO)
AROUND 4 AM FROM THE BURLESON TO COLUMBUS TO MATAGORDA BAY AREAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...AND THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER TOO. &&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT SPOTTY SHRA COVERAGE FOR THE
REMAINING EVENING HOURS...THEN INCREASING SHRA/TSRA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THESE STORMS...MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED...AND IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH +TSRA AND VERY GUSTY
S TO SE WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. WE SHOULD HAVE DECREASING COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES TOMORROW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAD ON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  78  73  83  72 /  60  80  50  80  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  78  74  82  75 /  50  90  70  70  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  80  78  83  77 /  30  80  80  80  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...36
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 232339
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
639 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
THE FLASH WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH THE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING TIME (GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO)
AROUND 4 AM FROM THE BURLESON TO COLUMBUS TO MATAGORDA BAY AREAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS...AND THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER TOO. &&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT SPOTTY SHRA COVERAGE FOR THE
REMAINING EVENING HOURS...THEN INCREASING SHRA/TSRA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THESE STORMS...MVFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED...AND IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH +TSRA AND VERY GUSTY
S TO SE WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. WE SHOULD HAVE DECREASING COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES TOMORROW...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MORE SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS WE HEAD ON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  78  73  83  72 /  60  80  50  80  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  78  74  82  75 /  50  90  70  70  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  80  78  83  77 /  30  80  80  80  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...36
AVIATION/MARINE...42



000
FXUS64 KAMA 232335
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST TO
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 00Z MONDAY...HOWEVER IT MAY
ALSO STALL NEAR THE CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH DALHART AND
GUYMON TAF SITES WELL WEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 01Z TO 03Z SUNDAY AT MAINLY
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST FOR
NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MAY BE INSERTED LATER THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 01Z SUNDAY...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SEE TORNADO WATCH 194 FOR
DETAILS.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM
FOR EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$

11




000
FXUS64 KAMA 232335
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST TO
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 00Z MONDAY...HOWEVER IT MAY
ALSO STALL NEAR THE CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH DALHART AND
GUYMON TAF SITES WELL WEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 01Z TO 03Z SUNDAY AT MAINLY
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST FOR
NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MAY BE INSERTED LATER THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 01Z SUNDAY...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SEE TORNADO WATCH 194 FOR
DETAILS.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM
FOR EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$

11




000
FXUS64 KAMA 232335
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST TO
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 00Z MONDAY...HOWEVER IT MAY
ALSO STALL NEAR THE CAPROCK BY LATE SUNDAY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH DALHART AND
GUYMON TAF SITES WELL WEST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG DEVELOP AFTER 01Z TO 03Z SUNDAY AT MAINLY
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST FOR
NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MAY BE INSERTED LATER THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 01Z SUNDAY...AND THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 10 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 16Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SEE TORNADO WATCH 194 FOR
DETAILS.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM
FOR EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KMAF 232314
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 232314
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

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http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
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000
FXUS64 KMAF 232314
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 232314
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 232307
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 232307
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 232307
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 232307
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
607 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area through
the evening hours, with several episodes of heavy convection
possible into the overnight hours. Carrying mostly TSRA at
various times through early evening, with SHRA and VCTS wording
overnight. Expect varying ceilings between VFR and MVFR through
the period but lower ceilings and visibilities will be possible
in heaviest showers and storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

99/99/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 232114
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
414 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SEE TORNADO WATCH 194 FOR
DETAILS.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM
FOR EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                53  80  53  79  53 /  20  20  10  20  20
BEAVER OK                  54  81  51  84  55 /  20  30  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              48  79  48  78  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  56  84  57  80  56 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              49  82  50  81  51 /  20  10  10  20  20
CANYON TX                  53  80  51  80  53 /  20  20  10  20  20
CLARENDON TX               56  79  55  79  54 /  30  30  20  20  30
DALHART TX                 46  82  48  81  51 /  10  10  10  20  20
GUYMON OK                  52  82  51  81  53 /  20  20  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                51  80  52  80  53 /  20  20  10  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                57  78  53  78  55 /  30  40  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   53  77  50  76  53 /  20  30  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                58  78  54  80  54 /  40  40  20  20  30
WELLINGTON TX              60  79  55  84  56 /  40  40  20  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$

18/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 232114
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
414 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SEE TORNADO WATCH 194 FOR
DETAILS.

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM
FOR EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA.

DRYLINE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
LATER PERIODS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                53  80  53  79  53 /  20  20  10  20  20
BEAVER OK                  54  81  51  84  55 /  20  30  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              48  79  48  78  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  56  84  57  80  56 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              49  82  50  81  51 /  20  10  10  20  20
CANYON TX                  53  80  51  80  53 /  20  20  10  20  20
CLARENDON TX               56  79  55  79  54 /  30  30  20  20  30
DALHART TX                 46  82  48  81  51 /  10  10  10  20  20
GUYMON OK                  52  82  51  81  53 /  20  20  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                51  80  52  80  53 /  20  20  10  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                57  78  53  78  55 /  30  40  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   53  77  50  76  53 /  20  30  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                58  78  54  80  54 /  40  40  20  20  30
WELLINGTON TX              60  79  55  84  56 /  40  40  20  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...LIPSCOMB...
     OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER.


&&

$$

18/03





000
FXUS64 KCRP 232100
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
400 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE/WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND EARLY
SUNDAY. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO ADDITIONAL
LINES FORMING TO THE WEST IN MX. ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRAIN
OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS AND COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOOD EVENT OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND FLOODED RIVER
BASINS. ATMOS IS ALSO VERY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WE`LL SEE ON SUNDAY GIVEN
THE ATMOS SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER
MODELS ALL SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY RE-DEVELOPING BY AFTN. IF
CONVECTION FIRES ALONG ANY LEFT-OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IT COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH FLASH FLOODING A CONTINUING THREAT.
ANOTHER S/W ON MONDAY WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WHERE
THE SHORT TERM LEFT OFF...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER. WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND VERY HIGH
WATER CONTENT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

BEGINNING TUESDAY UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT CONTINUING
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH MUCH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMALS FOR LATE
MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  84  76  85  77  /  70  70  60  60  50
VICTORIA          72  82  73  83  73  /  80  80  60  60  60
LAREDO            71  90  74  91  75  /  80  30  30  40  40
ALICE             74  86  74  87  76  /  70  60  50  60  50
ROCKPORT          77  83  77  83  77  /  70  80  60  60  60
COTULLA           70  88  72  87  72  /  90  40  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        75  86  75  86  77  /  70  60  50  60  50
NAVY CORPUS       76  83  77  83  78  /  70  70  60  60  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 232100
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
400 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE/WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND EARLY
SUNDAY. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO ADDITIONAL
LINES FORMING TO THE WEST IN MX. ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRAIN
OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS AND COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOOD EVENT OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND FLOODED RIVER
BASINS. ATMOS IS ALSO VERY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WE`LL SEE ON SUNDAY GIVEN
THE ATMOS SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER
MODELS ALL SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY RE-DEVELOPING BY AFTN. IF
CONVECTION FIRES ALONG ANY LEFT-OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IT COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH FLASH FLOODING A CONTINUING THREAT.
ANOTHER S/W ON MONDAY WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WHERE
THE SHORT TERM LEFT OFF...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER. WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND VERY HIGH
WATER CONTENT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

BEGINNING TUESDAY UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT CONTINUING
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH MUCH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMALS FOR LATE
MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  84  76  85  77  /  70  70  60  60  50
VICTORIA          72  82  73  83  73  /  80  80  60  60  60
LAREDO            71  90  74  91  75  /  80  30  30  40  40
ALICE             74  86  74  87  76  /  70  60  50  60  50
ROCKPORT          77  83  77  83  77  /  70  80  60  60  60
COTULLA           70  88  72  87  72  /  90  40  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        75  86  75  86  77  /  70  60  50  60  50
NAVY CORPUS       76  83  77  83  78  /  70  70  60  60  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 232100
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
400 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE/WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND EARLY
SUNDAY. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO ADDITIONAL
LINES FORMING TO THE WEST IN MX. ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRAIN
OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS AND COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOOD EVENT OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND FLOODED RIVER
BASINS. ATMOS IS ALSO VERY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WE`LL SEE ON SUNDAY GIVEN
THE ATMOS SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER
MODELS ALL SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY RE-DEVELOPING BY AFTN. IF
CONVECTION FIRES ALONG ANY LEFT-OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IT COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH FLASH FLOODING A CONTINUING THREAT.
ANOTHER S/W ON MONDAY WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WHERE
THE SHORT TERM LEFT OFF...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER. WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND VERY HIGH
WATER CONTENT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

BEGINNING TUESDAY UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT CONTINUING
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH MUCH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMALS FOR LATE
MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  84  76  85  77  /  70  70  60  60  50
VICTORIA          72  82  73  83  73  /  80  80  60  60  60
LAREDO            71  90  74  91  75  /  80  30  30  40  40
ALICE             74  86  74  87  76  /  70  60  50  60  50
ROCKPORT          77  83  77  83  77  /  70  80  60  60  60
COTULLA           70  88  72  87  72  /  90  40  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        75  86  75  86  77  /  70  60  50  60  50
NAVY CORPUS       76  83  77  83  78  /  70  70  60  60  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 232100
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
400 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE/WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY TONIGHT SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND EARLY
SUNDAY. RADAR SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO ADDITIONAL
LINES FORMING TO THE WEST IN MX. ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRAIN
OVER THE HIGHLIGHTED AREAS AND COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOOD EVENT OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS AND FLOODED RIVER
BASINS. ATMOS IS ALSO VERY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WE`LL SEE ON SUNDAY GIVEN
THE ATMOS SHOULD BE WORKED OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER
MODELS ALL SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY RE-DEVELOPING BY AFTN. IF
CONVECTION FIRES ALONG ANY LEFT-OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IT COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH FLASH FLOODING A CONTINUING THREAT.
ANOTHER S/W ON MONDAY WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WHERE
THE SHORT TERM LEFT OFF...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER. WITH CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND VERY HIGH
WATER CONTENT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

BEGINNING TUESDAY UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT CONTINUING
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH MUCH LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE
LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMALS FOR LATE
MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  84  76  85  77  /  70  70  60  60  50
VICTORIA          72  82  73  83  73  /  80  80  60  60  60
LAREDO            71  90  74  91  75  /  80  30  30  40  40
ALICE             74  86  74  87  76  /  70  60  50  60  50
ROCKPORT          77  83  77  83  77  /  70  80  60  60  60
COTULLA           70  88  72  87  72  /  90  40  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        75  86  75  86  77  /  70  60  50  60  50
NAVY CORPUS       76  83  77  83  78  /  70  70  60  60  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM



000
FXUS64 KBRO 232056
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
356 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA
...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING AT 1 AM CDT.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
WILL INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WEST OF A ROUGHLY
BAFFIN BAY TO SULLIVAN CITY LINE. WITH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY STILL SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SUNDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CDT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES NEARLY ALL OF
THE BRO CWFA (EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY) IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...FEATURING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INITIATOR FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVIOOUSLY-MENTIONED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SYNOPTIC
FACTORS FOR CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM /MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...ONE FINAL 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX ON MON
WHICH WILL GIVE THE STATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF CONV. MEAN RH
FIELDS SHOW A PRETTY DECENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY BREAK MAINTAINING THE
CONV POTENTIAL OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS WILL GET IT RIGHT FOR MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE WETTER OF THE TWO LONGER RANGE MODEL SETS WITH THE GFS SHOWING
MOST THE CONV REMAINING CONCENTRATED WELL NORTH OF THE RGV AND THE
REST OF DEEP SOUTH TX. CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF SPREAD BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS WILL OPT FOR A 50/50 BLEND AS AM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO BUY INTO THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. ONCE THIS LAST 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE STATE 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FOR WED AND THURS DIMINISHING THE CONV POTENTIAL. ANOTHER
SHALLOWER 500 MB TROUGH THEN PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND SAT WHICH MAY BOOST UP OUR
CONV POTENTIAL A BIT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOME 20 TO 30 %
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS OPTED FOR A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD STRATEGY. WITH
LINGER CONV POTENTIAL ON MON WILL UNDERCUT MEX/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
A BIT HERE. THEN WILL GO CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE GFS MEX
MOS/ECMWF GUIDANCE AS THE 500 MB RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

OVERALL LONGER TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONV POTENTIAL ON MON.
CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE RAIN CHCS IS ONLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE
SERIOUS MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

&&

.MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 16 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS
WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 14
CDT/19 UTC. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD AS A
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTERACTING...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO SPIN UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PGF. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MEMORIAL
DAY. THE PGF WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN LATER NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WEAKER SURFACE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RECENT WATER RELEASES FROM THE EL CUCHILLO AND MARTE
R. GOMEZ RESERVOIRS ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL FLOWS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIO
GRANDE. CURRENTLY THE RIVER STAGE AT THE SAN BENITO GAUGE ON THE
RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO RISE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SAN BENITO GAUGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 47.4 FEET ON
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOOD STAGE AT THE
SAN BENITO GAUGE IS 55.0 FEET. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST
RIVER STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR OFFICE
WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RGV ON THE RIVERS/LAKES SECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  89  81  88 /  50  50  50  50
BROWNSVILLE          75  87  80  89 /  50  50  40  50
HARLINGEN            76  90  80  90 /  50  50  40  60
MCALLEN              75  91  80  91 /  60  50  40  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  93  77  91 /  60  50  40  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  85  82  85 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65




000
FXUS64 KHGX 232043
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  78  73  83  72 /  60  80  50  80  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  78  74  82  75 /  50  90  70  70  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  80  78  83  77 /  30  80  80  80  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 232043
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  78  73  83  72 /  60  80  50  80  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  78  74  82  75 /  50  90  70  70  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  80  78  83  77 /  30  80  80  80  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 232043
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCT SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAPER OFF (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH)
THIS EVNG W/ LOSS OF HEATING.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE AT LEAST TWO 2 ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY NIGHT - WITH SOME POTENTIALLY
SERIOUS CONCERNS IN BETWEEN AS WELL. GROUNDS ARE PRETTY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS AND IT WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO PRODUCE
RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. TIDE LEVELS ARE UP SO BAYOUS FROM
HOUSTON METRO AREA WON`T DRAIN AS EFFICIENTLY AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD. IT ALSO WON`T TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF WIND TO BLOW DOWN SOME
TREES EITHER.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
A LARGE BAND OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PROBABLY TO THE I-45 CORRIDOR BY ROUGHLY 7 AM (+/- A FEW HOURS).
ALTHOUGH OVERALL BAND SHOULD BE MOVING...INDIVIDUAL STRONG CELLS
WITHIN IT WILL BE TRAINING SOUTH-NORTH. WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IS THERE ALONG W/ FF THREAT. FCST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY SATURATED...BUT ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR IS IN PLACE WHEREAS
ONE CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOS ESP W/ ANY DISCREET
CELLS JUST AHEAD OF PRIMARY LINE. WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR STRONGER
FAST MOVING STORMS TO LAY DOWN SOME 35-50 MPH GUSTS AS WELL.

CONCERN AND QUESTIONS ABOUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT:
THE VORT/DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED W/ 1ST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE/ENE LATER IN THE DAY. QUESTION IS IF IT`LL TAKE ALL
THE PRECIP W/ IT AND PROVIDE A SHORT AND NEEDED PRECIP-FREE
RECOVERY PERIOD. EARLIER HIRES MODELS AND ALSO 12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS
TAIL END OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGHT BE LEFT BEHIND SOMEWHERE
ACROSS S PART OF SE TX. PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME BECAUSE STRONG
LLVL JET WILL ALSO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF.
ECMWF IS ALSO NOW SHOWING A DISTINCT SFC BOUNDARY SETTING UP ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS SET UP COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ISN`T
HIGH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT...BUT IF I LIVED SOUTH OF A
LIVINGSTON-CONROE-COLUMBUS LINE (INCLUDING HOUSTON METRO) I WOULD
TAKE NOTE AS THESE SIGNALS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CONCERN. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SET UP AS THE RECENT CLEAR
LAKE FLOODING. ------ OPTION #2/2A...BRIEF BREAK BEHIND THE SUNDAY
MORNING PRECIP UNTIL ROUND 2 AND/OR WITH ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ROUND 2:
A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS N TX MON AFTERNOON AND INTO
OK/AR/LA MON NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AS IT OCCURS WITH HIGHEST QPF`S LIKELY ACROSS N HALF
OF SE TX. THAT BEING SAID...WE`LL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE IF THE
TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM LINGERS BEHIND AND PROVIDES CONTINUED GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES THRU TUES.

REALIZE THERE ARE A LOT OF WHAT IFS...BUT JUST TAKE AWAY THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF
RAIN BETWEEN NOW AND TUES - W/ LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REAL.

UPPER PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME
PERIOD W/ JUST TYPICAL SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN
INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WRN TROF APPROACHES TX
AND THE PLAINS.  47

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO ADVISORY LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WAVE RUN-UP MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA...MAINLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE TIME PERIOD
AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS DO NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH ON MONDAY AND ANOTHER HIGH
TIDE PERIOD MAY BRING MINOR FLOODING AGAIN TO THE GULF SIDE OF THE
BOLIVAR. ADDING TO THE WIND AND SEAS HAZARDS WILL BE RIP CURRENTS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  78  73  83  72 /  60  80  50  80  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  78  74  82  75 /  50  90  70  70  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  80  78  83  77 /  30  80  80  80  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLUB 232042
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /  20  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  30  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  30  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  30  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  40  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ024>026-
030>032-036>038-041>044.

&&

$$

23/33



000
FXUS64 KLUB 232042
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A LOT GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL HIGHLIGHTING THE FORECAST. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 9
PM. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 7 PM.

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY NEAR AND NORTH OF A SAGGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY UP AROUND CHILDRESS. THIS
AREA AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARE IN PLACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL /AND THE ATTENDANT FLOOD THREAT/. FURTHER WEST...A DRYLINE
HAS TIGHTENED NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ALONG IT. MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOWER NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...SO THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOWER...THOUGH ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MORE ACTIVITY
WAS ALSO NOTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF JAL AND THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS PULSED UP AND DOWN...THOUGH GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR A DEFINITE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT EXISTS FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE THE FULL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE LOWEST LCL AND
LFC VALUES AND HIGHEST HELICITY VALUES ARE FOUND IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT...AS
WELL AS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION COULD SEE A RETURN OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FLOW FIELDS SHOULD VEER
/AT LEAST ON THE CAPROCK/ DURING THE DAY AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING QUICK PROGRESS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD PLACE THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
OR INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS...THOUGH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS THE REGION IS SITUATED IN SUBSIDENT FLOW
BEHIND AN EARLY DAY SHORTWAVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMMON.

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE ACTIVE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS QUITE
COMPACT AND IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TRACK IT WILL TAKE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. THE 12 UTC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT
AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM MAY
KEEP THE STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WIND SHEAR
AND REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

WE EXPECT THAT WE/LL SEE LESS CHANCE AND/OR COVERAGE OF T-STORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS
WEAKER THAN IT DID PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTING THAT THE WEATHER MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY QUIET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE QPF SIGNAL INCREASES
ACROSS SW TX INTO THE SW SPLNS AS A LARGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGHINESS SHOULD SUPPORT A STORMY
PERIOD...POSSIBLY WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...BUT INBOUND UPPER RIDGING MAY PREVENT THE FRONT FROM
ENHANCING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  78  50  77 /  20  10   0  20
TULIA         54  78  51  77 /  30  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     55  78  52  77 /  30  20  10  20
LEVELLAND     56  81  53  80 /  30  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       57  82  55  80 /  30  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   56  81  54  81 /  30  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    57  82  55  81 /  40  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     61  80  59  82 /  50  30  10  30
SPUR          59  81  57  80 /  60  30  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  84  60  82 /  80  40  10  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ024>026-
030>032-036>038-041>044.

&&

$$

23/33




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232036
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
236 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT THE BORDERLAND LIES UNDER A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN
MOIST AIR TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PASS OUR AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...BUT
WE WILL REMAIN DRY. SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY WILL BRING AFTERNOONS
WITH GENERAL SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS WEST AND EVEN A SLIGHT RISK
OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE BOTH DAYS. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
AS LOWLAND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S. A COUPLE OF PUSHES FROM
THE EAST WILL TRY TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AND LATE SATURDAY. AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL SEE
MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE WESTERN
AREAS REMAIN GENERALLY SUNNY...HOT...AND DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS AFTERNOON WE SIT IN A DRY SWATH ON
THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST AND MODERATE MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE WE COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER/TSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN GILA
AND SOUTHERN HUDSPETH BUT THE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW IT WON`T BE
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. THUS A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH MILD MORNING TEMPS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH DIMINISHING EVENING WINDS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING NORTH THE MOISTURE TO OUR SE SHIFTS AWAY. BOTH
AFTERNOONS WILL BE BREEZY. WE DO SEE SOME MEAGER MOISTURE MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWFA. IT WILL MOSTLY TRANSLATE TO
A FEW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ZONES WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
AND POSSIBLY SIERRA COUNTY FOR SUN AND MON AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHORT-
LIVED...GENERALLY WEAK STORMS WITH NO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAX AND
THE REGION WILL SEE A WIDESPREAD DRYING AND WARMING. TEMPS SHOULD
APPROACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE LIFTS NE AND AWAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH OVER S CALIFORNIA. THIS INDICIES A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER OUR AREA TO BRING UP WINDS A BIT OVER THE WEST AND
BRING EASTERLY WINDS IN OVER THE EAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT
TO MOVE IN ON THOSE EAST WINDS AND SPREAD OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. CURRENT MODELS BRING THIS MOIST PUSH IN WEDNESDAY EVE
AND HOLD IT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT BACK
EAST FRIDAY. THUS WE HAVE POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE WED
THROUGH THU FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. FRIDAY LOOKS STORM FREE AND DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

NEXT PCPN POTENTIAL ARRIVES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEXT
SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH IN FROM THE E/NE
BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IN. CURRENT MODELS ARE
PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING THE MOISTURE WELL INTO
EASTERN AZ. DESPITE BEING UNDER A RIDGE AND THE LACK OF ANY
DISTURBANCES TO HELP INITIATE ORGANIZED STORMS...WE WILL BE
INCLUDING RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR EAST ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
MONITORING LATER MODEL RUNS FOR ADDITIONAL POP INCLUSION OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ZONES FOR SUNDAY.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z-25/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT250 THRU PD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WLY 15-20G30KTS
THRU 03Z AND AFT 16Z...AOB 12KTS 03Z-16Z. KELP WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
STRONGER WINDS THRU ABT 09Z.

26-GRZYWACZ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN MARGINAL IN RELATION TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.  DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS WELL WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

26-GRZYWACZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  83  59  85  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           52  85  54  83  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              49  81  50  82  54 /   0   0  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              50  81  53  82  57 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              37  59  40  60  45 /   0   0  10  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   48  79  51  81  56 /   0   0  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             41  72  46  73  48 /   0   0  10   0   0
DEMING                  46  81  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               45  80  51  81  51 /   0   0  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      57  82  58  85  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               51  82  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  84  56  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              51  77  53  78  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  55  82  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            52  83  55  83  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  81  56  82  60 /   0   0  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           45  81  49  82  53 /   0   0  10   0   0
HATCH                   47  82  50  83  53 /   0   0  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                50  81  54  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  81  55  81  59 /   0   0  10   0   0
MAYHILL                 42  68  46  69  50 /   0   0   0  20  10
MESCALERO               40  68  44  69  48 /   0   0  10  20  10
TIMBERON                42  68  45  68  49 /   0   0   0  20  10
WINSTON                 40  72  43  72  47 /   0   0  20  10   0
HILLSBORO               44  79  47  80  51 /   0   0  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               45  81  48  82  52 /   0   0  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            39  72  44  72  46 /   0   0  20   0   0
HURLEY                  41  75  46  75  47 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLIFF                   40  78  46  79  48 /   0   0  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  76  41  77  42 /   0   0  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 43  76  48  76  50 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANIMAS                  46  81  51  82  51 /   0   0  10   0   0
HACHITA                 45  82  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  81  49  82  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              43  77  49  77  49 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232036
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
236 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT THE BORDERLAND LIES UNDER A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN
MOIST AIR TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PASS OUR AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...BUT
WE WILL REMAIN DRY. SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY WILL BRING AFTERNOONS
WITH GENERAL SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS WEST AND EVEN A SLIGHT RISK
OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE BOTH DAYS. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
AS LOWLAND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S. A COUPLE OF PUSHES FROM
THE EAST WILL TRY TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AND LATE SATURDAY. AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL SEE
MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE WESTERN
AREAS REMAIN GENERALLY SUNNY...HOT...AND DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS AFTERNOON WE SIT IN A DRY SWATH ON
THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST AND MODERATE MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE WE COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER/TSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN GILA
AND SOUTHERN HUDSPETH BUT THE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW IT WON`T BE
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. THUS A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH MILD MORNING TEMPS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH DIMINISHING EVENING WINDS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING NORTH THE MOISTURE TO OUR SE SHIFTS AWAY. BOTH
AFTERNOONS WILL BE BREEZY. WE DO SEE SOME MEAGER MOISTURE MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWFA. IT WILL MOSTLY TRANSLATE TO
A FEW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ZONES WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
AND POSSIBLY SIERRA COUNTY FOR SUN AND MON AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHORT-
LIVED...GENERALLY WEAK STORMS WITH NO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAX AND
THE REGION WILL SEE A WIDESPREAD DRYING AND WARMING. TEMPS SHOULD
APPROACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE LIFTS NE AND AWAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH OVER S CALIFORNIA. THIS INDICIES A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER OUR AREA TO BRING UP WINDS A BIT OVER THE WEST AND
BRING EASTERLY WINDS IN OVER THE EAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT
TO MOVE IN ON THOSE EAST WINDS AND SPREAD OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. CURRENT MODELS BRING THIS MOIST PUSH IN WEDNESDAY EVE
AND HOLD IT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT BACK
EAST FRIDAY. THUS WE HAVE POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE WED
THROUGH THU FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. FRIDAY LOOKS STORM FREE AND DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

NEXT PCPN POTENTIAL ARRIVES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEXT
SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH IN FROM THE E/NE
BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IN. CURRENT MODELS ARE
PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING THE MOISTURE WELL INTO
EASTERN AZ. DESPITE BEING UNDER A RIDGE AND THE LACK OF ANY
DISTURBANCES TO HELP INITIATE ORGANIZED STORMS...WE WILL BE
INCLUDING RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR EAST ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
MONITORING LATER MODEL RUNS FOR ADDITIONAL POP INCLUSION OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ZONES FOR SUNDAY.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z-25/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT250 THRU PD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WLY 15-20G30KTS
THRU 03Z AND AFT 16Z...AOB 12KTS 03Z-16Z. KELP WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
STRONGER WINDS THRU ABT 09Z.

26-GRZYWACZ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN MARGINAL IN RELATION TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.  DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS WELL WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

26-GRZYWACZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  83  59  85  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           52  85  54  83  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              49  81  50  82  54 /   0   0  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              50  81  53  82  57 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              37  59  40  60  45 /   0   0  10  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   48  79  51  81  56 /   0   0  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             41  72  46  73  48 /   0   0  10   0   0
DEMING                  46  81  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               45  80  51  81  51 /   0   0  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      57  82  58  85  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               51  82  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  84  56  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              51  77  53  78  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  55  82  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            52  83  55  83  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  81  56  82  60 /   0   0  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           45  81  49  82  53 /   0   0  10   0   0
HATCH                   47  82  50  83  53 /   0   0  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                50  81  54  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  81  55  81  59 /   0   0  10   0   0
MAYHILL                 42  68  46  69  50 /   0   0   0  20  10
MESCALERO               40  68  44  69  48 /   0   0  10  20  10
TIMBERON                42  68  45  68  49 /   0   0   0  20  10
WINSTON                 40  72  43  72  47 /   0   0  20  10   0
HILLSBORO               44  79  47  80  51 /   0   0  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               45  81  48  82  52 /   0   0  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            39  72  44  72  46 /   0   0  20   0   0
HURLEY                  41  75  46  75  47 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLIFF                   40  78  46  79  48 /   0   0  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  76  41  77  42 /   0   0  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 43  76  48  76  50 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANIMAS                  46  81  51  82  51 /   0   0  10   0   0
HACHITA                 45  82  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  81  49  82  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              43  77  49  77  49 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232036
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
236 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT THE BORDERLAND LIES UNDER A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN
MOIST AIR TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PASS OUR AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...BUT
WE WILL REMAIN DRY. SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY WILL BRING AFTERNOONS
WITH GENERAL SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS WEST AND EVEN A SLIGHT RISK
OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE BOTH DAYS. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
AS LOWLAND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S. A COUPLE OF PUSHES FROM
THE EAST WILL TRY TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AND LATE SATURDAY. AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL SEE
MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE WESTERN
AREAS REMAIN GENERALLY SUNNY...HOT...AND DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS AFTERNOON WE SIT IN A DRY SWATH ON
THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST AND MODERATE MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE WE COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER/TSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN GILA
AND SOUTHERN HUDSPETH BUT THE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW IT WON`T BE
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. THUS A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH MILD MORNING TEMPS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH DIMINISHING EVENING WINDS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING NORTH THE MOISTURE TO OUR SE SHIFTS AWAY. BOTH
AFTERNOONS WILL BE BREEZY. WE DO SEE SOME MEAGER MOISTURE MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWFA. IT WILL MOSTLY TRANSLATE TO
A FEW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ZONES WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
AND POSSIBLY SIERRA COUNTY FOR SUN AND MON AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHORT-
LIVED...GENERALLY WEAK STORMS WITH NO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAX AND
THE REGION WILL SEE A WIDESPREAD DRYING AND WARMING. TEMPS SHOULD
APPROACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE LIFTS NE AND AWAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH OVER S CALIFORNIA. THIS INDICIES A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER OUR AREA TO BRING UP WINDS A BIT OVER THE WEST AND
BRING EASTERLY WINDS IN OVER THE EAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT
TO MOVE IN ON THOSE EAST WINDS AND SPREAD OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. CURRENT MODELS BRING THIS MOIST PUSH IN WEDNESDAY EVE
AND HOLD IT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT BACK
EAST FRIDAY. THUS WE HAVE POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE WED
THROUGH THU FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. FRIDAY LOOKS STORM FREE AND DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

NEXT PCPN POTENTIAL ARRIVES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEXT
SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH IN FROM THE E/NE
BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IN. CURRENT MODELS ARE
PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING THE MOISTURE WELL INTO
EASTERN AZ. DESPITE BEING UNDER A RIDGE AND THE LACK OF ANY
DISTURBANCES TO HELP INITIATE ORGANIZED STORMS...WE WILL BE
INCLUDING RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR EAST ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
MONITORING LATER MODEL RUNS FOR ADDITIONAL POP INCLUSION OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ZONES FOR SUNDAY.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z-25/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT250 THRU PD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WLY 15-20G30KTS
THRU 03Z AND AFT 16Z...AOB 12KTS 03Z-16Z. KELP WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
STRONGER WINDS THRU ABT 09Z.

26-GRZYWACZ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN MARGINAL IN RELATION TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.  DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS WELL WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

26-GRZYWACZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  83  59  85  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           52  85  54  83  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              49  81  50  82  54 /   0   0  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              50  81  53  82  57 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              37  59  40  60  45 /   0   0  10  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   48  79  51  81  56 /   0   0  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             41  72  46  73  48 /   0   0  10   0   0
DEMING                  46  81  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               45  80  51  81  51 /   0   0  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      57  82  58  85  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               51  82  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  84  56  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              51  77  53  78  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  55  82  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            52  83  55  83  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  81  56  82  60 /   0   0  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           45  81  49  82  53 /   0   0  10   0   0
HATCH                   47  82  50  83  53 /   0   0  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                50  81  54  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  81  55  81  59 /   0   0  10   0   0
MAYHILL                 42  68  46  69  50 /   0   0   0  20  10
MESCALERO               40  68  44  69  48 /   0   0  10  20  10
TIMBERON                42  68  45  68  49 /   0   0   0  20  10
WINSTON                 40  72  43  72  47 /   0   0  20  10   0
HILLSBORO               44  79  47  80  51 /   0   0  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               45  81  48  82  52 /   0   0  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            39  72  44  72  46 /   0   0  20   0   0
HURLEY                  41  75  46  75  47 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLIFF                   40  78  46  79  48 /   0   0  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  76  41  77  42 /   0   0  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 43  76  48  76  50 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANIMAS                  46  81  51  82  51 /   0   0  10   0   0
HACHITA                 45  82  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  81  49  82  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              43  77  49  77  49 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232036
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
236 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT THE BORDERLAND LIES UNDER A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN
MOIST AIR TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PASS OUR AREA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...BUT
WE WILL REMAIN DRY. SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY WILL BRING AFTERNOONS
WITH GENERAL SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS WEST AND EVEN A SLIGHT RISK
OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE BOTH DAYS. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
AS LOWLAND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S. A COUPLE OF PUSHES FROM
THE EAST WILL TRY TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AND LATE SATURDAY. AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL SEE
MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE WESTERN
AREAS REMAIN GENERALLY SUNNY...HOT...AND DRY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS AFTERNOON WE SIT IN A DRY SWATH ON
THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST AND MODERATE MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE WE COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER/TSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN GILA
AND SOUTHERN HUDSPETH BUT THE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW IT WON`T BE
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. THUS A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH MILD MORNING TEMPS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH DIMINISHING EVENING WINDS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING NORTH THE MOISTURE TO OUR SE SHIFTS AWAY. BOTH
AFTERNOONS WILL BE BREEZY. WE DO SEE SOME MEAGER MOISTURE MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWFA. IT WILL MOSTLY TRANSLATE TO
A FEW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ZONES WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
AND POSSIBLY SIERRA COUNTY FOR SUN AND MON AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHORT-
LIVED...GENERALLY WEAK STORMS WITH NO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.

TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAX AND
THE REGION WILL SEE A WIDESPREAD DRYING AND WARMING. TEMPS SHOULD
APPROACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE LIFTS NE AND AWAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH OVER S CALIFORNIA. THIS INDICIES A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER OUR AREA TO BRING UP WINDS A BIT OVER THE WEST AND
BRING EASTERLY WINDS IN OVER THE EAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT
TO MOVE IN ON THOSE EAST WINDS AND SPREAD OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. CURRENT MODELS BRING THIS MOIST PUSH IN WEDNESDAY EVE
AND HOLD IT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT BACK
EAST FRIDAY. THUS WE HAVE POPS BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE WED
THROUGH THU FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. FRIDAY LOOKS STORM FREE AND DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

NEXT PCPN POTENTIAL ARRIVES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEXT
SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH IN FROM THE E/NE
BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IN. CURRENT MODELS ARE
PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING THE MOISTURE WELL INTO
EASTERN AZ. DESPITE BEING UNDER A RIDGE AND THE LACK OF ANY
DISTURBANCES TO HELP INITIATE ORGANIZED STORMS...WE WILL BE
INCLUDING RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR EAST ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
MONITORING LATER MODEL RUNS FOR ADDITIONAL POP INCLUSION OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ZONES FOR SUNDAY.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z-25/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT250 THRU PD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WLY 15-20G30KTS
THRU 03Z AND AFT 16Z...AOB 12KTS 03Z-16Z. KELP WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
STRONGER WINDS THRU ABT 09Z.

26-GRZYWACZ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN MARGINAL IN RELATION TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.  DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS WELL WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

26-GRZYWACZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  83  59  85  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           52  85  54  83  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              49  81  50  82  54 /   0   0  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              50  81  53  82  57 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              37  59  40  60  45 /   0   0  10  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   48  79  51  81  56 /   0   0  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             41  72  46  73  48 /   0   0  10   0   0
DEMING                  46  81  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               45  80  51  81  51 /   0   0  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      57  82  58  85  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               51  82  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  84  56  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              51  77  53  78  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  55  82  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            52  83  55  83  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  81  56  82  60 /   0   0  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           45  81  49  82  53 /   0   0  10   0   0
HATCH                   47  82  50  83  53 /   0   0  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                50  81  54  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  81  55  81  59 /   0   0  10   0   0
MAYHILL                 42  68  46  69  50 /   0   0   0  20  10
MESCALERO               40  68  44  69  48 /   0   0  10  20  10
TIMBERON                42  68  45  68  49 /   0   0   0  20  10
WINSTON                 40  72  43  72  47 /   0   0  20  10   0
HILLSBORO               44  79  47  80  51 /   0   0  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               45  81  48  82  52 /   0   0  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            39  72  44  72  46 /   0   0  20   0   0
HURLEY                  41  75  46  75  47 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLIFF                   40  78  46  79  48 /   0   0  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  76  41  77  42 /   0   0  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 43  76  48  76  50 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANIMAS                  46  81  51  82  51 /   0   0  10   0   0
HACHITA                 45  82  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  81  49  82  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              43  77  49  77  49 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26






000
FXUS64 KSJT 232034
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

07/07






000
FXUS64 KSJT 232034
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

07/07





000
FXUS64 KSJT 232034
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

07/07





000
FXUS64 KSJT 232034
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
334 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread across West
Central Texas this afternoon, and continue to blossom through the
rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Low level
moisture is abundant, with the best lift just now starting to have
an impact as a potent shortwave trough begins to move into Far
West Texas. This trough axis will not pass until late tonight, so
widespread convection will continue. Given the high rainfall rates
and the potential for another 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher totals, kept the Flash Flood Watch going for the entire
area for tonight.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)

Overall, wet period will continue as the same basic pattern
continues. Main upper trough out to the west with a series of wave
rotating it and deep moisture already in place. A bit of a lull
for Sunday night as the shortwave tonight pushes east, and the
next wave is still upstream. This second shortwave rotates through
for Monday and Monday Night and have bumped ups PoPs for it as
well. Again, heavy rainfall looks to be a concern. A third wave
approaches starting as early as Wednesday Night. Some uncertainty
with the timing of the wave is still a little questionable, and
not going to argue with extending chance PoPs into the weekend, at
least until the timing becomes a little more certain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  65  83  63 /  80  50  20  40  30
San Angelo  65  86  65  85  63 /  80  40  20  40  30
Junction  66  84  68  80  65 /  80  40  20  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

07/07






000
FXUS64 KFWD 232030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. LOCAL OBJECTIVE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOW INDICATING
INHIBITION IS NEAR 0 OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LIKELY NOW
PUSHING 2 INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS INCLUDING UNDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-40KT IN THE LOW LEVELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES WHERE WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FIELDS
ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES NOW PUSHING 2000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-20. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX...WHERE ANY DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS AREA MAY TRY TO
ROTATE AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
LOWER DUE TO WIDESPREAD/MESSY STORM COVERAGE...BUT STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE QUICK ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT MOST
IMPORTANTLY...A LINE OF STORMS...OR MCS...HAS DEVELOPED IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. A
STRONG COLD POOL HAS FORMED WITH THIS MCS WHICH IS CAUSING ITS
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...IT SHOULD REACH
THE NW ZONES AROUND 9 PM. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE THAT FOCUSES THE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS CELLS WILL
TRAIN OR BACKBUILD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. WE STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. AS THE NIGHTTIME PROGRESSES...THE MCS AND THE CONVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD FORM A SOLID NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF
RAIN/STORMS THAT MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE 2-3 INCH
TOTALS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-20 THAN SOUTH. SOME LOW SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES
EAST...BUT THE TIME OF DAY AND STORM MODE SUGGESTS JUST A VERY
MARGINAL WIND THREAT.

THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG FORCING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF I-35. SOME SUNSHINE
MAY OCCUR OUT WEST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS AFTER THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

ON MONDAY...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT A
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE LIKELY RESULT WOULD BE A MCS/SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ROUND WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...AGAIN MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY
STILL BE IN FLUX...AS SUNDAY/S ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS MAY IMPACT THE
FAVORABLE ZONE FOR WHERE MONDAY/S ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND TRACK.

MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK/BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
DEVELOPING AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG OVER THE AREA. A DRY LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE
NEAR THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...IF THE FORECASTED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VERIFIES...IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO GIVEN A SLOW
MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS...THE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT IS ASSURED. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INTEREST...EVEN THOUGH POPS ARE ONLY
20-30 PERCENT.

CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...BUT NOT AS BAD AS ON TUESDAY. FORCING
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK...AND THEREFORE ONLY
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UNORGANIZED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM....BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE
DETAILS NOW.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

CONCERNS...CONVECTION...HEAVY RAIN...MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.

DESIGNING THE 18Z TAFS IS DIFFICULT DUE TO THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEST
GUESS IS A SLOW TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS EARLY AFTERNOON AND A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE DURING
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN PLACE...VFR VIS WILL BE
PRESENT BUT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD PRODUCE MVFR VIS FOR A
WHILE AND DECIDED TO KEEP 5SM BR AS PREVAILING. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVES FARTHER EAST...BUT THE TRANSITION WILL BE SLOW.

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY ONE TAF SITE.
LATER THIS EVENING...A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY...PROVIDING FOR LONG DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION /1 TO 3+ INCHES/... PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING...WHICH WILL ALL AFFECT DFW
GROUND OPERATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES.  75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
WACO, TX              70  78  69  81  67 /  80  80  30  80  50
PARIS, TX             68  74  67  79  65 /  60  90  50  60  60
DENTON, TX            67  76  66  80  66 /  90  80  30  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          67  75  67  79  66 /  80  90  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
TERRELL, TX           69  74  69  80  67 /  70  80  40  70  50
CORSICANA, TX         70  76  70  80  67 /  70  80  40  80  60
TEMPLE, TX            70  79  69  81  67 /  80  70  30  80  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  79  67  81  64 / 100  70  20  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 232030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. LOCAL OBJECTIVE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOW INDICATING
INHIBITION IS NEAR 0 OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LIKELY NOW
PUSHING 2 INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS INCLUDING UNDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-40KT IN THE LOW LEVELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES WHERE WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FIELDS
ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES NOW PUSHING 2000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-20. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX...WHERE ANY DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS AREA MAY TRY TO
ROTATE AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
LOWER DUE TO WIDESPREAD/MESSY STORM COVERAGE...BUT STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE QUICK ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT MOST
IMPORTANTLY...A LINE OF STORMS...OR MCS...HAS DEVELOPED IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. A
STRONG COLD POOL HAS FORMED WITH THIS MCS WHICH IS CAUSING ITS
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...IT SHOULD REACH
THE NW ZONES AROUND 9 PM. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE THAT FOCUSES THE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS CELLS WILL
TRAIN OR BACKBUILD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. WE STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. AS THE NIGHTTIME PROGRESSES...THE MCS AND THE CONVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD FORM A SOLID NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF
RAIN/STORMS THAT MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE 2-3 INCH
TOTALS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-20 THAN SOUTH. SOME LOW SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES
EAST...BUT THE TIME OF DAY AND STORM MODE SUGGESTS JUST A VERY
MARGINAL WIND THREAT.

THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG FORCING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF I-35. SOME SUNSHINE
MAY OCCUR OUT WEST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS AFTER THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

ON MONDAY...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT A
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE LIKELY RESULT WOULD BE A MCS/SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ROUND WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...AGAIN MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY
STILL BE IN FLUX...AS SUNDAY/S ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS MAY IMPACT THE
FAVORABLE ZONE FOR WHERE MONDAY/S ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND TRACK.

MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK/BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
DEVELOPING AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG OVER THE AREA. A DRY LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE
NEAR THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...IF THE FORECASTED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VERIFIES...IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO GIVEN A SLOW
MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS...THE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT IS ASSURED. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INTEREST...EVEN THOUGH POPS ARE ONLY
20-30 PERCENT.

CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...BUT NOT AS BAD AS ON TUESDAY. FORCING
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK...AND THEREFORE ONLY
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UNORGANIZED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM....BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE
DETAILS NOW.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

CONCERNS...CONVECTION...HEAVY RAIN...MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.

DESIGNING THE 18Z TAFS IS DIFFICULT DUE TO THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEST
GUESS IS A SLOW TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS EARLY AFTERNOON AND A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE DURING
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN PLACE...VFR VIS WILL BE
PRESENT BUT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD PRODUCE MVFR VIS FOR A
WHILE AND DECIDED TO KEEP 5SM BR AS PREVAILING. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVES FARTHER EAST...BUT THE TRANSITION WILL BE SLOW.

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY ONE TAF SITE.
LATER THIS EVENING...A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY...PROVIDING FOR LONG DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION /1 TO 3+ INCHES/... PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING...WHICH WILL ALL AFFECT DFW
GROUND OPERATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES.  75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
WACO, TX              70  78  69  81  67 /  80  80  30  80  50
PARIS, TX             68  74  67  79  65 /  60  90  50  60  60
DENTON, TX            67  76  66  80  66 /  90  80  30  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          67  75  67  79  66 /  80  90  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
TERRELL, TX           69  74  69  80  67 /  70  80  40  70  50
CORSICANA, TX         70  76  70  80  67 /  70  80  40  80  60
TEMPLE, TX            70  79  69  81  67 /  80  70  30  80  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  79  67  81  64 / 100  70  20  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 232030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. LOCAL OBJECTIVE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOW INDICATING
INHIBITION IS NEAR 0 OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LIKELY NOW
PUSHING 2 INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS INCLUDING UNDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-40KT IN THE LOW LEVELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES WHERE WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FIELDS
ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES NOW PUSHING 2000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-20. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX...WHERE ANY DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS AREA MAY TRY TO
ROTATE AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
LOWER DUE TO WIDESPREAD/MESSY STORM COVERAGE...BUT STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE QUICK ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT MOST
IMPORTANTLY...A LINE OF STORMS...OR MCS...HAS DEVELOPED IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. A
STRONG COLD POOL HAS FORMED WITH THIS MCS WHICH IS CAUSING ITS
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...IT SHOULD REACH
THE NW ZONES AROUND 9 PM. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE THAT FOCUSES THE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS CELLS WILL
TRAIN OR BACKBUILD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. WE STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. AS THE NIGHTTIME PROGRESSES...THE MCS AND THE CONVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD FORM A SOLID NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF
RAIN/STORMS THAT MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE 2-3 INCH
TOTALS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-20 THAN SOUTH. SOME LOW SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES
EAST...BUT THE TIME OF DAY AND STORM MODE SUGGESTS JUST A VERY
MARGINAL WIND THREAT.

THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG FORCING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF I-35. SOME SUNSHINE
MAY OCCUR OUT WEST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS AFTER THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

ON MONDAY...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT A
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE LIKELY RESULT WOULD BE A MCS/SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ROUND WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...AGAIN MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY
STILL BE IN FLUX...AS SUNDAY/S ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS MAY IMPACT THE
FAVORABLE ZONE FOR WHERE MONDAY/S ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND TRACK.

MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK/BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
DEVELOPING AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG OVER THE AREA. A DRY LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE
NEAR THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...IF THE FORECASTED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VERIFIES...IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO GIVEN A SLOW
MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS...THE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT IS ASSURED. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INTEREST...EVEN THOUGH POPS ARE ONLY
20-30 PERCENT.

CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...BUT NOT AS BAD AS ON TUESDAY. FORCING
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK...AND THEREFORE ONLY
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UNORGANIZED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM....BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE
DETAILS NOW.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

CONCERNS...CONVECTION...HEAVY RAIN...MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.

DESIGNING THE 18Z TAFS IS DIFFICULT DUE TO THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEST
GUESS IS A SLOW TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS EARLY AFTERNOON AND A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE DURING
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN PLACE...VFR VIS WILL BE
PRESENT BUT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD PRODUCE MVFR VIS FOR A
WHILE AND DECIDED TO KEEP 5SM BR AS PREVAILING. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVES FARTHER EAST...BUT THE TRANSITION WILL BE SLOW.

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY ONE TAF SITE.
LATER THIS EVENING...A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY...PROVIDING FOR LONG DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION /1 TO 3+ INCHES/... PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING...WHICH WILL ALL AFFECT DFW
GROUND OPERATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES.  75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
WACO, TX              70  78  69  81  67 /  80  80  30  80  50
PARIS, TX             68  74  67  79  65 /  60  90  50  60  60
DENTON, TX            67  76  66  80  66 /  90  80  30  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          67  75  67  79  66 /  80  90  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
TERRELL, TX           69  74  69  80  67 /  70  80  40  70  50
CORSICANA, TX         70  76  70  80  67 /  70  80  40  80  60
TEMPLE, TX            70  79  69  81  67 /  80  70  30  80  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  79  67  81  64 / 100  70  20  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 232030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. LOCAL OBJECTIVE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOW INDICATING
INHIBITION IS NEAR 0 OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LIKELY NOW
PUSHING 2 INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS INCLUDING UNDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-40KT IN THE LOW LEVELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES WHERE WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FIELDS
ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES NOW PUSHING 2000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-20. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX...WHERE ANY DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS AREA MAY TRY TO
ROTATE AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
LOWER DUE TO WIDESPREAD/MESSY STORM COVERAGE...BUT STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE QUICK ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT MOST
IMPORTANTLY...A LINE OF STORMS...OR MCS...HAS DEVELOPED IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. A
STRONG COLD POOL HAS FORMED WITH THIS MCS WHICH IS CAUSING ITS
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...IT SHOULD REACH
THE NW ZONES AROUND 9 PM. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE THAT FOCUSES THE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS CELLS WILL
TRAIN OR BACKBUILD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. WE STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. AS THE NIGHTTIME PROGRESSES...THE MCS AND THE CONVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD FORM A SOLID NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF
RAIN/STORMS THAT MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE 2-3 INCH
TOTALS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-20 THAN SOUTH. SOME LOW SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES
EAST...BUT THE TIME OF DAY AND STORM MODE SUGGESTS JUST A VERY
MARGINAL WIND THREAT.

THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG FORCING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF I-35. SOME SUNSHINE
MAY OCCUR OUT WEST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS AFTER THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

ON MONDAY...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT A
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE LIKELY RESULT WOULD BE A MCS/SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ROUND WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...AGAIN MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY
STILL BE IN FLUX...AS SUNDAY/S ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS MAY IMPACT THE
FAVORABLE ZONE FOR WHERE MONDAY/S ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND TRACK.

MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK/BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
DEVELOPING AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG OVER THE AREA. A DRY LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE
NEAR THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...IF THE FORECASTED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VERIFIES...IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO GIVEN A SLOW
MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS...THE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT IS ASSURED. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INTEREST...EVEN THOUGH POPS ARE ONLY
20-30 PERCENT.

CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...BUT NOT AS BAD AS ON TUESDAY. FORCING
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK...AND THEREFORE ONLY
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UNORGANIZED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM....BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE
DETAILS NOW.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

CONCERNS...CONVECTION...HEAVY RAIN...MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.

DESIGNING THE 18Z TAFS IS DIFFICULT DUE TO THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEST
GUESS IS A SLOW TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS EARLY AFTERNOON AND A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE DURING
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN PLACE...VFR VIS WILL BE
PRESENT BUT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD PRODUCE MVFR VIS FOR A
WHILE AND DECIDED TO KEEP 5SM BR AS PREVAILING. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVES FARTHER EAST...BUT THE TRANSITION WILL BE SLOW.

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY ONE TAF SITE.
LATER THIS EVENING...A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY...PROVIDING FOR LONG DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION /1 TO 3+ INCHES/... PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING...WHICH WILL ALL AFFECT DFW
GROUND OPERATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES.  75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
WACO, TX              70  78  69  81  67 /  80  80  30  80  50
PARIS, TX             68  74  67  79  65 /  60  90  50  60  60
DENTON, TX            67  76  66  80  66 /  90  80  30  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          67  75  67  79  66 /  80  90  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
TERRELL, TX           69  74  69  80  67 /  70  80  40  70  50
CORSICANA, TX         70  76  70  80  67 /  70  80  40  80  60
TEMPLE, TX            70  79  69  81  67 /  80  70  30  80  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  79  67  81  64 / 100  70  20  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 232030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. LOCAL OBJECTIVE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOW INDICATING
INHIBITION IS NEAR 0 OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LIKELY NOW
PUSHING 2 INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS INCLUDING UNDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-40KT IN THE LOW LEVELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES WHERE WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FIELDS
ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES NOW PUSHING 2000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-20. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX...WHERE ANY DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS AREA MAY TRY TO
ROTATE AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
LOWER DUE TO WIDESPREAD/MESSY STORM COVERAGE...BUT STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE QUICK ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT MOST
IMPORTANTLY...A LINE OF STORMS...OR MCS...HAS DEVELOPED IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. A
STRONG COLD POOL HAS FORMED WITH THIS MCS WHICH IS CAUSING ITS
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...IT SHOULD REACH
THE NW ZONES AROUND 9 PM. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE THAT FOCUSES THE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS CELLS WILL
TRAIN OR BACKBUILD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. WE STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. AS THE NIGHTTIME PROGRESSES...THE MCS AND THE CONVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD FORM A SOLID NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF
RAIN/STORMS THAT MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE 2-3 INCH
TOTALS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-20 THAN SOUTH. SOME LOW SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES
EAST...BUT THE TIME OF DAY AND STORM MODE SUGGESTS JUST A VERY
MARGINAL WIND THREAT.

THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG FORCING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF I-35. SOME SUNSHINE
MAY OCCUR OUT WEST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS AFTER THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

ON MONDAY...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT A
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE LIKELY RESULT WOULD BE A MCS/SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ROUND WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...AGAIN MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY
STILL BE IN FLUX...AS SUNDAY/S ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS MAY IMPACT THE
FAVORABLE ZONE FOR WHERE MONDAY/S ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND TRACK.

MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK/BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
DEVELOPING AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG OVER THE AREA. A DRY LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE
NEAR THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...IF THE FORECASTED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VERIFIES...IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO GIVEN A SLOW
MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS...THE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT IS ASSURED. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INTEREST...EVEN THOUGH POPS ARE ONLY
20-30 PERCENT.

CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...BUT NOT AS BAD AS ON TUESDAY. FORCING
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK...AND THEREFORE ONLY
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UNORGANIZED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM....BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE
DETAILS NOW.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

CONCERNS...CONVECTION...HEAVY RAIN...MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.

DESIGNING THE 18Z TAFS IS DIFFICULT DUE TO THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEST
GUESS IS A SLOW TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS EARLY AFTERNOON AND A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE DURING
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN PLACE...VFR VIS WILL BE
PRESENT BUT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD PRODUCE MVFR VIS FOR A
WHILE AND DECIDED TO KEEP 5SM BR AS PREVAILING. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVES FARTHER EAST...BUT THE TRANSITION WILL BE SLOW.

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY ONE TAF SITE.
LATER THIS EVENING...A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY...PROVIDING FOR LONG DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION /1 TO 3+ INCHES/... PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING...WHICH WILL ALL AFFECT DFW
GROUND OPERATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES.  75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
WACO, TX              70  78  69  81  67 /  80  80  30  80  50
PARIS, TX             68  74  67  79  65 /  60  90  50  60  60
DENTON, TX            67  76  66  80  66 /  90  80  30  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          67  75  67  79  66 /  80  90  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
TERRELL, TX           69  74  69  80  67 /  70  80  40  70  50
CORSICANA, TX         70  76  70  80  67 /  70  80  40  80  60
TEMPLE, TX            70  79  69  81  67 /  80  70  30  80  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  79  67  81  64 / 100  70  20  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 232030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. LOCAL OBJECTIVE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOW INDICATING
INHIBITION IS NEAR 0 OVER ALL BUT THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LIKELY NOW
PUSHING 2 INCHES...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY HIGH. ALL OF THESE
PARAMETERS INCLUDING UNDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 30-40KT IN THE LOW LEVELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES WHERE WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY FIELDS
ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES NOW PUSHING 2000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-20. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX...WHERE ANY DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS AREA MAY TRY TO
ROTATE AND PRODUCE TORNADOES. ELSEWHERE...SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
LOWER DUE TO WIDESPREAD/MESSY STORM COVERAGE...BUT STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE QUICK ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT MOST
IMPORTANTLY...A LINE OF STORMS...OR MCS...HAS DEVELOPED IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. A
STRONG COLD POOL HAS FORMED WITH THIS MCS WHICH IS CAUSING ITS
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...IT SHOULD REACH
THE NW ZONES AROUND 9 PM. THIS MCS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE THAT FOCUSES THE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS CELLS WILL
TRAIN OR BACKBUILD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. WE STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. AS THE NIGHTTIME PROGRESSES...THE MCS AND THE CONVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD FORM A SOLID NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF
RAIN/STORMS THAT MOVES GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CWA WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE 2-3 INCH
TOTALS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-20 THAN SOUTH. SOME LOW SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES
EAST...BUT THE TIME OF DAY AND STORM MODE SUGGESTS JUST A VERY
MARGINAL WIND THREAT.

THE LINE OF RAIN/STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG FORCING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF I-35. SOME SUNSHINE
MAY OCCUR OUT WEST...WHICH WOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
ON HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS AFTER THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN.
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.

ON MONDAY...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS
AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT A
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE LIKELY RESULT WOULD BE A MCS/SQUALL LINE THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ROUND WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...AGAIN MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY
STILL BE IN FLUX...AS SUNDAY/S ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS MAY IMPACT THE
FAVORABLE ZONE FOR WHERE MONDAY/S ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND TRACK.

MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK/BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
DEVELOPING AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG OVER THE AREA. A DRY LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE
NEAR THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS
TO DEVELOP. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...IF THE FORECASTED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY VERIFIES...IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO GIVEN A SLOW
MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS...THE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT IS ASSURED. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
TUESDAY TIME PERIOD WITH INTEREST...EVEN THOUGH POPS ARE ONLY
20-30 PERCENT.

CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH...BUT NOT AS BAD AS ON TUESDAY. FORCING
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK...AND THEREFORE ONLY
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF UNORGANIZED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH A POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM....BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO THE
DETAILS NOW.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

CONCERNS...CONVECTION...HEAVY RAIN...MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.

DESIGNING THE 18Z TAFS IS DIFFICULT DUE TO THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEST
GUESS IS A SLOW TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS EARLY AFTERNOON AND A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE DURING
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN PLACE...VFR VIS WILL BE
PRESENT BUT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD PRODUCE MVFR VIS FOR A
WHILE AND DECIDED TO KEEP 5SM BR AS PREVAILING. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVES FARTHER EAST...BUT THE TRANSITION WILL BE SLOW.

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY ONE TAF SITE.
LATER THIS EVENING...A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY...PROVIDING FOR LONG DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION /1 TO 3+ INCHES/... PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING...WHICH WILL ALL AFFECT DFW
GROUND OPERATIONS...AND OVERNIGHT ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES.  75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
WACO, TX              70  78  69  81  67 /  80  80  30  80  50
PARIS, TX             68  74  67  79  65 /  60  90  50  60  60
DENTON, TX            67  76  66  80  66 /  90  80  30  50  50
MCKINNEY, TX          67  75  67  79  66 /  80  90  40  50  50
DALLAS, TX            68  76  68  81  66 /  90  80  30  60  50
TERRELL, TX           69  74  69  80  67 /  70  80  40  70  50
CORSICANA, TX         70  76  70  80  67 /  70  80  40  80  60
TEMPLE, TX            70  79  69  81  67 /  80  70  30  80  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  79  67  81  64 / 100  70  20  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMAF 232007
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  83  56  85  /  50  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              61  86  62  86  /  70  20  10  40
CARLSBAD NM                50  86  53  86  /  20   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  63  91  65  90  /  60  10  10  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  88  59  88  /  50  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  77  55  80  /  20   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   53  80  51  82  /  30  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   47  80  43  82  /  30   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  86  61  87  /  50  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  62  85  61  86  /  50  10  10  20
WINK TX                    58  88  55  89  /  40  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99/99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 232007
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  83  56  85  /  50  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              61  86  62  86  /  70  20  10  40
CARLSBAD NM                50  86  53  86  /  20   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  63  91  65  90  /  60  10  10  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  88  59  88  /  50  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  77  55  80  /  20   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   53  80  51  82  /  30  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   47  80  43  82  /  30   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  86  61  87  /  50  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  62  85  61  86  /  50  10  10  20
WINK TX                    58  88  55  89  /  40  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99/99

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 231926
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS SHAPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ON SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS IS THE START OF A LARGE LINEAR MCS THAT ALL OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR
THIS MCS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH
THE MORNING DRT AND CRP SOUNDINGS BOTH HAVING 2000 - 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
BREAKDOWN THE THREATS AND THE TIME PERIODS IN THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AFD.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP
A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS CONTINUES TO GET EARLIER. THE NSSL WRF
AND ARM BOTH HAVE THE LINE APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR AND NMM ALL SAY THAT
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 9PM AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE EARLIER
TIMING IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
ONTO 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION. THIS...ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TODAY...AND THE FACT THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED WILL LEAD TO
THE THREAT OF BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. WHILE CONVECTION GROUPING
TOGETHER LIKE THIS TYPICAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
A LITTLE BIT LESS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRST DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE HRRR ACTUAL SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SECTIONS BEING SHOWN IN THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WINDS PROFILES TURN
WITH HEIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THOSE OUT AND
ABOUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON LOCAL RIVERS
AND LAKES...MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

AS WE GET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS NOW
SHOW THE LINE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA BY 09Z TO 12Z (4 TO 7 AM).
BEHIND THE LINE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT WORKED OVER FROM
THE NIGHT OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 3000 J/KG
OF CAPE...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAYS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE ARM/NMM/NSSL WRF DO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

TO SUMMARIZE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. THE LINE SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXIST WITH THE LINE. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEATHER AWARE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ON
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND
STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM AROUND LUNCH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF (FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGEST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WOULD POSSIBLE NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
RETURN ON MONDAY. SPC HAS THE AREA CURRENTLY BLANKETED IN A DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORM
MODE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AS CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR MCS STORM MODES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY CLOSELY. STRESSING
AGAIN...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE THEY ARE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TUESDAY IS MORE ZONAL WITH SOME SLIGHT
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER REDUCTION IN POP
CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST RETURNING THE AREA TO A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  81  70  81  69 /  90  70  30  70  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  82  69  81  68 /  90  70  30  70  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  83  69  81  70 /  90  70  40  70  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  81  69  80  67 /  90  70  30  70  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  90  71  89  69 /  60  30  20  50  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  80  69  80  68 /  90  70  30  70  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  85  70  83  69 /  90  40  30  70  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  82  69  81  69 /  90  70  40  70  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  82  71  82  71 /  80  80  60  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  84  71  82  71 /  90  60  40  70  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  84  71  83  71 /  90  60  40  70  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33



000
FXUS64 KEWX 231926
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
226 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FORECAST IS SHAPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM ON SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BIG
BEND REGION. THIS IS THE START OF A LARGE LINEAR MCS THAT ALL OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR
THIS MCS. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2
INCHES. THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA WITH
THE MORNING DRT AND CRP SOUNDINGS BOTH HAVING 2000 - 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
BREAKDOWN THE THREATS AND THE TIME PERIODS IN THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AFD.

FOR TONIGHT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE MESOSCALE MODELS DEVELOP
A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS CONTINUES TO GET EARLIER. THE NSSL WRF
AND ARM BOTH HAVE THE LINE APPROACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR AND NMM ALL SAY THAT
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND APPROACHING
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 9PM AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE EARLIER
TIMING IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKELY. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
ONTO 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE OF
CONVECTION. THIS...ON TOP OF ADDITIONAL RAINS THAT HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TODAY...AND THE FACT THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED WILL LEAD TO
THE THREAT OF BOTH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. WHILE CONVECTION GROUPING
TOGETHER LIKE THIS TYPICAL MEANS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
A LITTLE BIT LESS...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRST DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WITHIN
BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE HRRR ACTUAL SUPPORTS THIS WITH
SEVERAL BOWING SECTIONS BEING SHOWN IN THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO SUFFICIENT SURFACE WIND SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
TO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WINDS PROFILES TURN
WITH HEIGHT.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT THOSE OUT AND
ABOUT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON LOCAL RIVERS
AND LAKES...MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE
WEATHER INFORMATION...HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER OR GET TO SAFETY
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING OCCUR...AND ALWAYS REMEMBER TO
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

AS WE GET INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH
CONTINUED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS NOW
SHOW THE LINE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA BY 09Z TO 12Z (4 TO 7 AM).
BEHIND THE LINE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SOME WHAT WORKED OVER FROM
THE NIGHT OF STORMS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW OVER 3000 J/KG
OF CAPE...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAYS. MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE ARM/NMM/NSSL WRF DO SHOW
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

TO SUMMARIZE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT. THE LINE SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO EXIST WITH THE LINE. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYONE SHOULD BE
WEATHER AWARE FOR THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THOSE OUT AND ABOUT ON
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE BREAK FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND
STORMS. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST TIMING FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM AROUND LUNCH TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF (FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
SUGGEST ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1.5 INCHES AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS WOULD POSSIBLE NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
RETURN ON MONDAY. SPC HAS THE AREA CURRENTLY BLANKETED IN A DAY 3
SLIGHT RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STORM
MODE AND COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DETERMINE THE OVERALL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AS CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR MCS STORM MODES. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY CLOSELY. STRESSING
AGAIN...ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE THEY ARE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR TUESDAY IS MORE ZONAL WITH SOME SLIGHT
RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER REDUCTION IN POP
CHANCES FOR MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST RETURNING THE AREA TO A
SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS WITH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH SENDING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  81  70  81  69 /  90  70  30  70  60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  82  69  81  68 /  90  70  30  70  60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  83  69  81  70 /  90  70  40  70  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  81  69  80  67 /  90  70  30  70  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  90  71  89  69 /  60  30  20  50  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  80  69  80  68 /  90  70  30  70  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  85  70  83  69 /  90  40  30  70  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  82  69  81  69 /  90  70  40  70  60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  82  71  82  71 /  80  80  60  60  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  84  71  82  71 /  90  60  40  70  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  84  71  83  71 /  90  60  40  70  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KMAF 231809
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning