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000
FXUS64 KAMA 300051 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
751 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...COOL AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS REGION...BUT SOME MODELS SHOW REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS
BELOW THE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WET GROUNDS...BUT MAJORITY OF MODELS
SHOW ENOUGH DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TO COUNTER THIS AND DO
NOT SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS KGUY. NNW FLOW
IS ALSO SOMEWHAT MORE OF A DOWNSLOPING WIND AND LESS FAVORABLE FOR
LOW STRATUS. GIVEN THIS...MADE CHANGES ACCORDINGLY TO TAFS TO ONLY
KEEP MVFR/IFR FORECAST FOR KGUY...BUT THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN NEW
MEXICO ARE STARTING TO FILTER INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LIGHT
DRIZZLY RAIN CONTINUES TO AFFECT SOME OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. THE CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING...A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BRING SOME BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE 20S AND LOW 30S. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL BREAK OUT OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SEE A BRIEF WARM UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN
SLIDES EAST AND BRINGS THE CLOUDS BACK FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST AND SPREADING EASTWARD SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...CHANCES FOR PRECIP END ON MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN ABOUT
HOW THE LOW MOVES AWAY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO PINCH OFF SOME ENERGY FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND TURN IT INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ON TUESDAY. THE CANADIAN TRIES THIS SCENARIO
WEDNESDAY. WITH ALL OTHER MODELS PUSHING THE LOW AWAY...HAVE
DETERMINED FOR NOW TO USE A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS. WHILE
RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WESTERN US...MODELS INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE RIDGE AND BRING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO THE AREA FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FOR OUR WESTERN HALF. WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORWARD
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS RIDGING FILLS IN OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY AND THE
80S RETURN BY WEEKS END AFTER THE COOL BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

BEAT

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                38  64  39  54  41 /   5   5  10  40  40
BEAVER OK                  39  62  40  56  42 /  20   5   5  40  40
BOISE CITY OK              35  55  36  49  37 /  10   5  20  50  50
BORGER TX                  39  65  40  56  42 /   5   5  10  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              38  65  40  53  40 /   5  10  10  50  40
CANYON TX                  38  66  40  54  42 /   5   5  10  40  40
CLARENDON TX               42  68  43  60  45 /   5   0   5  40  40
DALHART TX                 36  60  37  50  38 /   5   5  20  50  40
GUYMON OK                  38  60  38  54  41 /  10   5  10  40  40
HEREFORD TX                38  67  40  52  41 /   0  20  10  50  40
LIPSCOMB TX                40  65  42  59  43 /  20   5   5  30  40
PAMPA TX                   38  64  40  55  41 /   5   5   5  40  40
SHAMROCK TX                44  69  44  63  46 /  10   0   0  30  50
WELLINGTON TX              45  71  46  65  48 /  10   0   0  30  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/88



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000
FXUS64 KMAF 300011
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
711 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Update to allow the Wind Advisory to expire and to cancel the rest
of the High Wind Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Gusty southwest to west winds across southeast New Mexico and most
of west Texas will begin to diminish between 30/00Z and 30/01Z as
they begin to decouple from stronger low and mid level wind maxima.
There may be a locations or two, especially over the Permian Basin
where the strongest mid level winds are indicated, that linger a
little longer, but the general trend will be for decreasing surface
wind speeds.  Therefore, will allow the Wind Advisory to expire at
the appointed time of 30/00Z.  The High Wind Warning in the
Guadalupe Mountains is supposed to last until 30/03Z.  However, none
of the observations sites are indicating high winds currently, and
have shown very few have struggled to surpass high wind
criteriaof40mph sustained or gusts of 58 mph or more.  Since model
data are indicating mid level winds over the Guadalupe Mountains
will diminish in the next couple of hours, will go ahead and cancel
the rest of the High Wind Warning at 30/00Z.

Although surface wind speeds will decrease between 30/00Z and
30/03Z, speeds will be strong enough to warrant continuation of the
Red Flag Warning until 30/03Z.  Will send an update at that time to
cancel it if wind speeds drop below 20 mph sustained.  The rest of
the forecast appears to be in good shape, so plan on not making any
other changes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

See 00z aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
decrease in strength over the next few hours and generally weaken
to below 12 kts during the overnight period. Winds will become
elevated out of the southwest Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

As an upper low across NM is lifting newd into SE Colorado with the
assocd Pacific front having moved e of the area leaving very windy
and dry conditions in its wake. NPW remains in effect with no
changes from previous issuance. Winds will subside pretty quickly
early this evening with a loose MSLP gradient overnight. A cooler
start is expected Sat AM, but still warming to around or just
below normal. Meanwhile a cold front will be dropping south
through the plains early Sun AM arriving into nrn CWFA around 12Z
Sun as another upper low to the west quickly fills and lifts thru
nrn NM. This will set-up an overrunning regime in the lower levels
resulting in increased clouds and light precip Sun AM, mostly
north of I-20 where temps may actually slowly fall thru the day as
NE winds increase. By late Sun night/early Mon AM a mid level
speed max atop the low level overrunning will be sufficient for
precip to develop. Most precip will likely be stratiform, but will
mention possibility of an isold embedded storms per lapse rates.
Light precip will attempt to develop wwd into Mon AM, but not
expected to make it thru the mtns. High temps Mon AM will be well
below normal under cloudy skies. Temps will still be well below
normal Tue, even s/w of the Pecos River. Mid level flow amplifies
Wed/Thur with ridging accompanied by a noticeable warm-up Wed-
Fri.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx conditions across the wrn half of the CWFA will
subside this evening probably before the scheduled expiration of
03Z. For the next few hrs min RHS around 10% and 20ft west winds
of 20-30 mph and gusty are expected. We have opted to cancel the
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday as winds in the 5kft-10kft layer
are not indicative of widespread concerns, despite min RHs near 10
pct and warmer temps than today. A pattern change on Sun/Mon will
bring much cooler conditions with higher RHs to the mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  81  52  66 /  10   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       49  82  49  62 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         60  92  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  55  87  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  76  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  78  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  78  39  76 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  84  54  70 /  10   0  10  40
Odessa                         53  84  53  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  88  54  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS64 KSJT 300000
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
700 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Mainly VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24
hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible near
the KBBD and KJCT terminals through mid evening but this activity
is expected to remain southeast of the terminals. A weak cold
front will move across the KABI terminal after midnight, with
winds becoming light northwesterly through Friday morning.
Elsewhere, winds will be light and variable to light
west/southwesterly the next 24 hours. Could see some MVFR
visibilities and VFR stratus behind the front through mid
morning, otherwise mainly clear skies expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Dryline/Pacific front is making its way east through the forecast
area late this afternoon with mostly clear and dry conditions
moving in behind. Through the remainder of the evening there will
still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over our extreme
southeastern counties. Dry conditions are on tap for the remainder
of the night and through the day tomorrow. Lows tomorrow will be
in the low to mid 50s across the CWA and afternoon highs Saturday
under mostly sunny skies will be in the mid to upper 70s north on
Interstate 20 and low to mid 80s south of Interstate 20.

15

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday)

The cold front mentioned in the short term discussion will
continue its progress southward Saturday night, moving south and
west through the mountains of west Texas during the day Sunday.
This moist, easterly, upslope flow will aid in the development of
showers and thunderstorms from Sunday evening into Monday as an
upper level trough moves northeast out of north central AZ, across
the Four Corners region, and into the central plains region by
Monday morning. The best chance for precipitation for our area
looks to be areas south and west of a Sterling City to Junction
line, so have kept likely PoPs in the forecast for mainly Crockett
County Sunday night. Although a few strong storms are possible,
severe storms are not expected with this precipitation. Cooler
temperatures will prevail Sunday and Monday behind the cold front
with highs Sunday ranging from the upper 60s north of I-20, to the
lower 80s along and south of I-10, with Monday temperatures expected
to only warm up into the 60s across the area. Rain chances will
linger into Monday morning, but should be ending by early
afternoon.

(Tuesday through Friday)
Expect a warming trend with dry weather following rain chances
Monday, as upper level ridging slowly moves in and over the area
from Tuesday through the end of the work week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  52  72 /   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  53  85  55  77 /   5   5   5  10
Junction  54  88  58  81 /  10   5   5  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/24




000
FXUS64 KSJT 300000
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
700 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Mainly VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24
hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible near
the KBBD and KJCT terminals through mid evening but this activity
is expected to remain southeast of the terminals. A weak cold
front will move across the KABI terminal after midnight, with
winds becoming light northwesterly through Friday morning.
Elsewhere, winds will be light and variable to light
west/southwesterly the next 24 hours. Could see some MVFR
visibilities and VFR stratus behind the front through mid
morning, otherwise mainly clear skies expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Dryline/Pacific front is making its way east through the forecast
area late this afternoon with mostly clear and dry conditions
moving in behind. Through the remainder of the evening there will
still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over our extreme
southeastern counties. Dry conditions are on tap for the remainder
of the night and through the day tomorrow. Lows tomorrow will be
in the low to mid 50s across the CWA and afternoon highs Saturday
under mostly sunny skies will be in the mid to upper 70s north on
Interstate 20 and low to mid 80s south of Interstate 20.

15

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday)

The cold front mentioned in the short term discussion will
continue its progress southward Saturday night, moving south and
west through the mountains of west Texas during the day Sunday.
This moist, easterly, upslope flow will aid in the development of
showers and thunderstorms from Sunday evening into Monday as an
upper level trough moves northeast out of north central AZ, across
the Four Corners region, and into the central plains region by
Monday morning. The best chance for precipitation for our area
looks to be areas south and west of a Sterling City to Junction
line, so have kept likely PoPs in the forecast for mainly Crockett
County Sunday night. Although a few strong storms are possible,
severe storms are not expected with this precipitation. Cooler
temperatures will prevail Sunday and Monday behind the cold front
with highs Sunday ranging from the upper 60s north of I-20, to the
lower 80s along and south of I-10, with Monday temperatures expected
to only warm up into the 60s across the area. Rain chances will
linger into Monday morning, but should be ending by early
afternoon.

(Tuesday through Friday)
Expect a warming trend with dry weather following rain chances
Monday, as upper level ridging slowly moves in and over the area
from Tuesday through the end of the work week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  52  72 /   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  53  85  55  77 /   5   5   5  10
Junction  54  88  58  81 /  10   5   5  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/24



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000
FXUS64 KCRP 292359
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
659 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MAINLY FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...A TRANSITION TO IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR IN MIST/HAZE ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PREDOMINATE
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MID MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE A TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATE VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...18Z SOUNDING SHOWS
A PRETTY STOUT CAP REMAINING.  WITH STRONG LLVL FLOW MIXING OUT
ANY FOCUSING BOUNDARIES THERE LOOKS TO BE LESS AND LESS CHANCE
FOR STORMS TO INITIATE IN THE SHORT TERM ACRS OUR CWFA. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS THROUGH THE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING DOES FIRE
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE LATER TNGT INTO SATURDAY.
ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN VERY HIGH
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.  PREV TEMP FCSTS LOOK FINE TNGT.

EXPECT AN MCS TO APPRCH THER NORTHERN CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY LAY OUT A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DVLPMNT ON SATURDAY. AGAIN THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES...AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR A STRONG STORM...WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY AS A
LITTLE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED...THEN DRIER AND COOLER BEYOND THAT.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS A SLOW MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF APPROACH THE COASTAL BEND. MODERATE CAP
STILL IN PLACE WHICH LOOKS TO LIMIT POTENTIAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE. HIGH PWATS AND SLOW MOVEMENT INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. BY TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE
GONE...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE ONGOING COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENT THREATS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...WELL INTO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN. EXPECT
WINDS TO SUBSIDE A LITTLE THIS EVENING AND WILL GIVE THE SCA OVER
THE BAYS A CHANCE TO EXPIRE ON TIME. OTHW WINDS WILL DECREASE
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ON SATURDAY BUT BIG WAVES AND SWELLS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS ROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SWELLS ALREADY AROUND 8 SECONDS
AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS SO WAVE RUN UP AND RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
CONTINUE FOR AWHILE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  75  88  73  /  30  40  10  20  40
VICTORIA          74  87  73  84  70  /  60  60  10  30  40
LAREDO            74  98  73  94  73  /  20  20  10  20  30
ALICE             74  92  74  88  72  /  30  40  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          76  86  76  87  75  /  40  50  10  20  40
COTULLA           71  94  72  89  70  /  30  20  10  20  30
KINGSVILLE        76  91  75  89  74  /  20  40  10  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       76  84  76  87  76  /  30  40  10  20  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 292359
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
659 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MAINLY FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...A TRANSITION TO IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR IN MIST/HAZE ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PREDOMINATE
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MID MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE A TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATE VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...18Z SOUNDING SHOWS
A PRETTY STOUT CAP REMAINING.  WITH STRONG LLVL FLOW MIXING OUT
ANY FOCUSING BOUNDARIES THERE LOOKS TO BE LESS AND LESS CHANCE
FOR STORMS TO INITIATE IN THE SHORT TERM ACRS OUR CWFA. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS THROUGH THE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING DOES FIRE
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE LATER TNGT INTO SATURDAY.
ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN VERY HIGH
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.  PREV TEMP FCSTS LOOK FINE TNGT.

EXPECT AN MCS TO APPRCH THER NORTHERN CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY LAY OUT A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DVLPMNT ON SATURDAY. AGAIN THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES...AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR A STRONG STORM...WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY AS A
LITTLE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED...THEN DRIER AND COOLER BEYOND THAT.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS A SLOW MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF APPROACH THE COASTAL BEND. MODERATE CAP
STILL IN PLACE WHICH LOOKS TO LIMIT POTENTIAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE. HIGH PWATS AND SLOW MOVEMENT INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. BY TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE
GONE...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE ONGOING COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENT THREATS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...WELL INTO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN. EXPECT
WINDS TO SUBSIDE A LITTLE THIS EVENING AND WILL GIVE THE SCA OVER
THE BAYS A CHANCE TO EXPIRE ON TIME. OTHW WINDS WILL DECREASE
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ON SATURDAY BUT BIG WAVES AND SWELLS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS ROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SWELLS ALREADY AROUND 8 SECONDS
AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS SO WAVE RUN UP AND RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
CONTINUE FOR AWHILE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  75  88  73  /  30  40  10  20  40
VICTORIA          74  87  73  84  70  /  60  60  10  30  40
LAREDO            74  98  73  94  73  /  20  20  10  20  30
ALICE             74  92  74  88  72  /  30  40  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          76  86  76  87  75  /  40  50  10  20  40
COTULLA           71  94  72  89  70  /  30  20  10  20  30
KINGSVILLE        76  91  75  89  74  /  20  40  10  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       76  84  76  87  76  /  30  40  10  20  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



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000
FXUS64 KEWX 292337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
HAVENT SEEN TOO MUCH NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON BESIDES A
FEW SHOWERS WEST OF SAN ANTONIO. WILL BEGIN THE SAN ANTONIO SITES
WITH VCSH TO COVER THIS ACTIVITY. WITH LITTLE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT ONCE
THE FRONT COMES INTO THE AREA AND SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT FORCES AIR PARCELS UPWARDS. SOME OF
THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS DIFFERING ON THIS SOLUTION BUT THE HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLING ON INITIALIZATION AND THINK ITS
SOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IS PLAUSIBLE. WILL MENTION
VCTS FROM 7Z-11 FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES. MAY NEED TO UP THAT TO
PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUPS LATER IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOME VFR TOMORROW MORNING
AS LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW CLEARS THINGS OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DRYLINE IN PLACE FROM
NEAR SONORA BACK INTO NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. TRAILING BEHIND
THE DRYLINE IS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN OZONA
TO DRYDEN LINE. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP TO THE EAST
OF THE DRYLINE AND A MARGINAL TO ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...ALBEIT PERHAPS A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY... WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS BECOME
LOCALLY BACKED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35 GIVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
LEVELS. ONCE WE LOOSE PEAK HEATING...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY DURING THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT... A MORE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND THIS SHOULD
SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THIS FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE MENTIONED
AREAS. ANOTHER SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE ON MONDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL
JET MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO EASE ON
TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WE/LL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  88  65  82  63 /  60  20  10  20  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  87  65  81  64 /  60  20  10  20  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  66  82  65 /  60  30  10  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  86  62  79  60 /  40  10  10  10  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           61  91  68  86  64 /  10  -   20  30  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        64  85  63  81  62 /  60  20  10  10  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  91  67  84  66 /  40  10  10  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  86  66  83  64 /  60  30  10  30  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  84  69  83  67 /  80  40  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  88  67  82  65 /  50  20  10  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  90  69  83  67 /  50  20  10  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 292337
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
637 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MOISTURE AXIS FROM MATAGORDA
BAY TO KCLL TO MADISON COUNTY SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
MOIST AXIS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFERED...HOWEVER THERE WAS ENOUGH
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM12/RAP13 TO TRY AND TIME THE EVENT
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TERMINALS WERE BASED ON THE NAM12 AND RAP13
AND THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
..FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPANDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE LIBERTY/CHAMBERS
GALVESTON/BRAZORIA COUNTIES. SEVERE THREAT SLIGHT TO ENHANCED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

INGREDIENTS ALL IN PLACE NOW ACROSS THE REGION. PW 1.25-1.5 AND
CLIMBING. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO 85-88 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AND GET GUSTY. SETX IS
GOING TO BE UNDER THE GUN TONIGHT FOR SEVERE AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD START OUT AS TORNADO/HAIL THREAT IN THE
WEST AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. AS WE GET
INTO THE EVENING THE THREAT SHOULD ALSO INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION...WET GROUND WILL ALLOW FOR TREE FALL AT LOWER
WIND SPEEDS THAN NORMAL.

FLOODING THREAT FOR MANY RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM POINT TO AN EAST
WEST BOUNDARY ACROSS SETX...LOCATION MAY BE WELL NORTH OF THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA OR FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE METRO AREA. THIS
COULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION IF THIS SETS UP ALONG THE
SPRING CREEK TO I-10 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES WILL
BE EASY TO ACHIEVE IN THIS PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT
GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LL INFLOW AND LL SATURATION. EVENTUALLY
THIS STORM COMPLEX SLIDES EAST AND SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA AROUND NOON SATURDAY OR PERHAPS EARLIER IF THE COLD POOL CAN
GET MORE DOMINANT BUT THROUGH 3 AM THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT IT
COULD SURGE EAST OUT OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND BRINGS IN DRYING AT LEAST OVER
THE NW 2/3RDS OF THE AREA.

BEYOND SATURDAY THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OR NEARSHORE WATERS AND THEN AS
NEXT TROUGH DROPS IN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE FRONT ACTIVATES
AGAIN SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MORE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS NEXT
UPPER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH. THE `GOOD` NEWS IS
THAT STRONG LL INFLOW IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH THE SUNDAY-
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY MORE SCATTERED AND NOT
AS FOCUSED.

PERSONS ACROSS SETX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR A VERY ROUGH NIGHT OF WEATHER.

45

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. CAUTION FLAGS ARE UP THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BEACHES/
INTERCOASTAL WATERWAYS DOWN THE BRAZORIA COUNTY COASTLINE.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL HELP TO PILE UP WATER ONTO ROADWAYS/LOW-LYING
AREAS IN THESE AREAS DURING HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  84  69  82  66 / 100  50  40  50  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  82  71  82  70 / 100  60  40  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  80  74  80  73 /  60  60  30  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN
     JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...48
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KMAF 292321
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
decrease in strength over the next few hours and generally weaken
to below 12 kts during the overnight period. Winds will become
elevated out of the southwest Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
As an upper low across NM is lifting newd into SE Colorado with the
assocd Pacific front having moved e of the area leaving very windy
and dry conditions in its wake. NPW remains in effect with no
changes from previous issuance. Winds will subside pretty quickly
early this evening with a loose MSLP gradient overnight. A cooler
start is expected Sat AM, but still warming to around or just
below normal. Meanwhile a cold front will be dropping south
through the plains early Sun AM arriving into nrn CWFA around 12Z
Sun as another upper low to the west quickly fills and lifts thru
nrn NM. This will set-up an overrunning regime in the lower levels
resulting in increased clouds and light precip Sun AM, mostly
north of I-20 where temps may actually slowly fall thru the day as
NE winds increase. By late Sun night/early Mon AM a mid level
speed max atop the low level overrunning will be sufficient for
precip to develop. Most precip will likely be stratiform, but will
mention possibility of an isold embedded storms per lapse rates.
Light precip will attempt to develop wwd into Mon AM, but not
expected to make it thru the mtns. High temps Mon AM will be well
below normal under cloudy skies. Temps will still be well below
normal Tue, even s/w of the Pecos River. Mid level flow amplifies
Wed/Thur with ridging accompanied by a noticeable warm-up Wed-
Fri.

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire wx conditions across the wrn half of the CWFA will
subside this evening probably before the scheduled expiration of
03Z. For the next few hrs min RHS around 10% and 20ft west winds
of 20-30 mph and gusty are expected. We have opted to cancel the
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday as winds in the 5kft-10kft layer
are not indicative of widespread concerns, despite min RHs near 10
pct and warmer temps than today. A pattern change on Sun/Mon will
bring much cooler conditions with higher RHs to the mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  81  52  66 /  10   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       49  82  49  62 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         60  92  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  55  87  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  76  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  78  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  78  39  76 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  84  54  70 /  10   0  10  40
Odessa                         53  84  53  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  88  54  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

99/99/



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLUB 292313
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOME CLOUDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR OR BELOW 5KFT AT PVW AND LBB THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE BKN OR OVC CATEGORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF THE CHILDRESS VICINITY
PREVENTING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDER COOL CONDITIONS. DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO JUST BE EAST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
REGION HAS EXPERIENCED STRONG SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STILL PERSIST OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP MOST
IF NOT ALL CONVECTION AT BAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING...A SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL LIKELY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL BE WORKING AGAINST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL BEFORE
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
AFFECTS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN A BIT INTO A MUCH BROADER
WAVE THAN A COMPACT CLOSED LOW. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC
LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA...WE WILL STILL
BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT THAT DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A TRANSITION MAINLY INTO
SHOWERS/RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY COOL ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW LONG LOW CLOUDS HANG ON
MONDAY MORNING.

COOLER AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND WE SEE
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...RIDGING WILL START
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND WE SEE NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOP ALOFT. MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE KEEPING IT WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH PLACES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER
THERE WILL BE ANY NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LEFT POPS ALONE FOR NOW UNTIL WE SEE HOW THINGS CHANGE GETTING
CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME.

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO PUSH EAST LATE FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE FINALLY RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLOWLY WARM BACK TO NORMAL AS WE
HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK AFTER THE COOL START.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51




000
FXUS64 KLUB 292313
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOME CLOUDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR OR BELOW 5KFT AT PVW AND LBB THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE BKN OR OVC CATEGORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF THE CHILDRESS VICINITY
PREVENTING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDER COOL CONDITIONS. DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO JUST BE EAST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
REGION HAS EXPERIENCED STRONG SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STILL PERSIST OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP MOST
IF NOT ALL CONVECTION AT BAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING...A SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL LIKELY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL BE WORKING AGAINST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL BEFORE
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
AFFECTS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN A BIT INTO A MUCH BROADER
WAVE THAN A COMPACT CLOSED LOW. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC
LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA...WE WILL STILL
BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT THAT DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A TRANSITION MAINLY INTO
SHOWERS/RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY COOL ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW LONG LOW CLOUDS HANG ON
MONDAY MORNING.

COOLER AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND WE SEE
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...RIDGING WILL START
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND WE SEE NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOP ALOFT. MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE KEEPING IT WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH PLACES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER
THERE WILL BE ANY NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LEFT POPS ALONE FOR NOW UNTIL WE SEE HOW THINGS CHANGE GETTING
CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME.

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO PUSH EAST LATE FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE FINALLY RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLOWLY WARM BACK TO NORMAL AS WE
HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK AFTER THE COOL START.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51




000
FXUS64 KAMA 292118
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
418 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN NEW
MEXICO ARE STARTING TO FILTER INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LIGHT
DRIZZLY RAIN CONTINUES TO AFFECT SOME OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. THE CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING...A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND BRING SOME BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE 20S AND LOW 30S. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL BREAK OUT OF
CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SEE A BRIEF WARM UP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN
SLIDES EAST AND BRINGS THE CLOUDS BACK FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST AND SPREADING EASTWARD SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...CHANCES FOR PRECIP END ON MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN ABOUT
HOW THE LOW MOVES AWAY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO PINCH OFF SOME ENERGY FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND TURN IT INTO
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ON TUESDAY. THE CANADIAN TRIES THIS SCENARIO
WEDNESDAY. WITH ALL OTHER MODELS PUSHING THE LOW AWAY...HAVE
DETERMINED FOR NOW TO USE A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS. WHILE
RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WESTERN US...MODELS INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE RIDGE AND BRING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO THE AREA FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FOR OUR WESTERN HALF. WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORWARD
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS RIDGING FILLS IN OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY AND THE
80S RETURN BY WEEKS END AFTER THE COOL BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

BEAT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                38  64  39  54  41 /   5   5  10  40  40
BEAVER OK                  39  62  40  56  42 /  20   5   5  40  40
BOISE CITY OK              35  55  36  49  37 /  10   5  20  50  50
BORGER TX                  39  65  40  56  42 /   5   5  10  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              38  65  40  53  40 /   5  10  10  50  40
CANYON TX                  38  66  40  54  42 /   5   5  10  40  40
CLARENDON TX               42  68  43  60  45 /   5   0   5  40  40
DALHART TX                 36  60  37  50  38 /   5   5  20  50  40
GUYMON OK                  38  60  38  54  41 /  10   5  10  40  40
HEREFORD TX                38  67  40  52  41 /   0  20  10  50  40
LIPSCOMB TX                40  65  42  59  43 /  20   5   5  30  40
PAMPA TX                   38  64  40  55  41 /   5   5   5  40  40
SHAMROCK TX                44  69  44  63  46 /  10   0   0  30  50
WELLINGTON TX              45  71  46  65  48 /  10   0   0  30  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/16




000
FXUS64 KSJT 292053
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
353 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Dryline/Pacific front is making its way east through the forecast
area late this afternoon with mostly clear and dry conditions
moving in behind. Through the remainder of the evening there will
still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over our extreme
southeastern counties. Dry conditions are on tap for the remainder
of the night and through the day tomorrow. Lows tomorrow will be
in the low to mid 50s across the CWA and afternoon highs Saturday
under mostly sunny skies will be in the mid to upper 70s north on
Interstate 20 and low to mid 80s south of Interstate 20.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday)

The cold front mentioned in the short term discussion will
continue its progress southward Saturday night, moving south and
west through the mountains of west Texas during the day Sunday.
This moist, easterly, upslope flow will aid in the development of
showers and thunderstorms from Sunday evening into Monday as an
upper level trough moves northeast out of north central AZ, across
the Four Corners region, and into the central plains region by
Monday morning. The best chance for precipitation for our area
looks to be areas south and west of a Sterling City to Junction
line, so have kept likely PoPs in the forecast for mainly Crockett
County Sunday night. Although a few strong storms are possible,
severe storms are not expected with this precipitation. Cooler
temperatures will prevail Sunday and Monday behind the cold front
with highs Sunday ranging from the upper 60s north of I-20, to the
lower 80s along and south of I-10, with Monday temperatures expected
to only warm up into the 60s across the area. Rain chances will
linger into Monday morning, but should be ending by early
afternoon.

(Tuesday through Friday)
Expect a warming trend with dry weather following rain chances
Monday, as upper level ridging slowly moves in and over the area
from Tuesday through the end of the work week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  78  52  72 /   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  53  85  55  77 /   5   5   5  10
Junction  54  88  58  81 /  10   5   5  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLUB 292048
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF THE CHILDRESS VICINITY
PREVENTING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDER COOL CONDITIONS. DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO JUST BE EAST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
REGION HAS EXPERIENCED STRONG SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STILL PERSIST OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP MOST
IF NOT ALL CONVECTION AT BAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING...A SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL LIKELY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL BE WORKING AGAINST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL BEFORE
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
AFFECTS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN A BIT INTO A MUCH BROADER
WAVE THAN A COMPACT CLOSED LOW. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC
LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA...WE WILL STILL
BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT THAT DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A TRANSITION MAINLY INTO
SHOWERS/RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY COOL ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW LONG LOW CLOUDS HANG ON
MONDAY MORNING.

COOLER AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND WE SEE
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...RIDGING WILL START
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND WE SEE NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOP ALOFT. MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE KEEPING IT WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH PLACES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER
THERE WILL BE ANY NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LEFT POPS ALONE FOR NOW UNTIL WE SEE HOW THINGS CHANGE GETTING
CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME.

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO PUSH EAST LATE FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE FINALLY RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLOWLY WARM BACK TO NORMAL AS WE
HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK AFTER THE COOL START.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14




000
FXUS64 KHGX 292041
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPANDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE LIBERTY/CHAMBERS
GALVESTON/BRAZORIA COUNTIES. SEVERE THREAT SLIGHT TO ENHANCED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

INGREDIENTS ALL IN PLACE NOW ACROSS THE REGION. PW 1.25-1.5 AND
CLIMBING. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO 85-88 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AND GET GUSTY. SETX IS
GOING TO BE UNDER THE GUN TONIGHT FOR SEVERE AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD START OUT AS TORNADO/HAIL THREAT IN THE
WEST AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. AS WE GET
INTO THE EVENING THE THREAT SHOULD ALSO INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION...WET GROUND WILL ALLOW FOR TREE FALL AT LOWER
WIND SPEEDS THAN NORMAL.

FLOODING THREAT FOR MANY RUNS OF THE HRRR/NAM POINT TO AN EAST
WEST BOUNDARY ACROSS SETX...LOCATION MAY BE WELL NORTH OF THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA OR FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE METRO AREA. THIS
COULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION IF THIS SETS UP ALONG THE
SPRING CREEK TO I-10 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES WILL
BE EASY TO ACHIEVE IN THIS PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT
GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LL INFLOW AND LL SATURATION. EVENTUALLY
THIS STORM COMPLEX SLIDES EAST AND SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA AROUND NOON SATURDAY OR PERHAPS EARLIER IF THE COLD POOL CAN
GET MORE DOMINANT BUT THROUGH 3 AM THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT IT
COULD SURGE EAST OUT OF THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND BRINGS IN DRYING AT LEAST OVER
THE NW 2/3RDS OF THE AREA.

BEYOND SATURDAY THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OR NEARSHORE WATERS AND THEN AS
NEXT TROUGH DROPS IN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE FRONT ACTIVATES
AGAIN SUNDAY AND PROBABLY MORE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS NEXT
UPPER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH. THE `GOOD` NEWS IS
THAT STRONG LL INFLOW IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH THE SUNDAY-
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME SO STORMS WILL PROBABLY MORE SCATTERED AND NOT
AS FOCUSED.

PERSONS ACROSS SETX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR A VERY ROUGH NIGHT OF WEATHER.

45

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. CAUTION FLAGS ARE UP THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BEACHES/
INTERCOASTAL WATERWAYS DOWN THE BRAZORIA COUNTY COASTLINE.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL HELP TO PILE UP WATER ONTO ROADWAYS/LOW-LYING
AREAS IN THESE AREAS DURING HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
HIGHWAY 87 AND 124 CONNECTION NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA.  42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  84  69  82  66 / 100  50  40  50  50
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  82  71  82  70 / 100  60  40  50  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  80  74  80  73 /  60  60  30  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN
     JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KEWX 292037
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
337 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DRYLINE IN PLACE FROM
NEAR SONORA BACK INTO NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. TRAILING BEHIND
THE DRYLINE IS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN OZONA
TO DRYDEN LINE. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP TO THE EAST
OF THE DRYLINE AND A MARGINAL TO ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...ALBEIT PERHAPS A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY... WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS BECOME
LOCALLY BACKED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35 GIVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
LEVELS. ONCE WE LOOSE PEAK HEATING...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY DURING THE ABOVE MENTIONED TIME FRAME. LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT... A MORE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND THIS SHOULD
SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THIS FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE MENTIONED
AREAS. ANOTHER SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE ON MONDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL
JET MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO EASE ON
TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WE/LL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  88  65  82  63 /  60  20  10  20  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  87  65  81  64 /  60  20  10  20  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  66  82  65 /  60  30  10  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  86  62  79  60 /  40  10  10  10  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           61  91  68  86  64 /  10  -   20  30  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        64  85  63  81  62 /  60  20  10  10  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  91  67  84  66 /  40  10  10  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  86  66  83  64 /  60  30  10  30  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  84  69  83  67 /  80  40  20  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  88  67  82  65 /  50  20  10  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  90  69  83  67 /  50  20  10  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 292030
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
230 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MAINLY HIGH MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP LATER NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH NOW COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH
SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVED THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS EARLIER TODAY AND
COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEAK
UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED IN FLOW MAY ALSO INDUCE VERY ISOLATED STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO MARGINALLY WINDY BUT
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

ANOTHER FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACCELERATE
ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY. INITIALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
ON SATURDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR BREEZY AT BEST. HOWEVER TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WILL CONCUR WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA WITH EAST WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
AGAIN PUSHING MORE COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THUS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 8 AND 12 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL RESPECTIVELY. COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF TROUGH
OVER LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING MAY BRING ISOLATED STORMS OVER
NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY BUT OTHERWISE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES OF
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN TOO LITTLE MOISTURE INFLOW FOR RAIN.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AND SURFACE
TROUGHING WEST OF THE DIVIDE SOUTHEAST  TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EARLIER MODEL RUNS INDICATED THIS FLOW WOULD TRANSPORT SUFFICIENT
WATER VAPOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER PERIODS. HOWEVER
LATEST SOLUTIONS INDICATE A MORE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORY WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING ONLY MODEST INCREASES. THUS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 20S AND 30S MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY HIGH MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY. IN ADDITION AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AND A MORE WARMER SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z-01/00Z.
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250 AREAS N OF I-10...SKC-FEW100-120
SOUTH. A FEW ISOLD -SHRA BKN060-080 POSSIBLE IN MTN AREAS. W TO NW
WINDS OF 15-20G30KTS WILL DECREASE BY 03Z TO AOB 12KTS...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SW AFT 12Z AND INCREASE THROUGH DAY TO 10-20KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS TO RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS ONE UPPER LOW EXITS AND ANOTHER ENTERS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH MOST LOCATIONS UNDER 20 MPH EXCEPT POSSIBLY AROUND THE NM
BOOTHEEL REGION ON SATURDAY. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ENTER FROM EAST
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND BRING IN SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN...MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM
INTO THE 80S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 90S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 54  80  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           49  78  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              47  77  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              47  76  51  67 /   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              34  54  37  51 /  20   0  10  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   44  75  50  71 /  10   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             40  71  43  67 /  10  10   0  20
DEMING                  44  79  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               43  81  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      53  80  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               47  79  48  66 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            51  82  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              49  75  52  73 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  50  81  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            50  79  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          50  77  53  73 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           44  76  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   45  78  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                44  80  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               50  77  54  72 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 39  63  40  53 /  20   0  10  20
MESCALERO               38  64  40  57 /  10   0  10  20
TIMBERON                39  63  41  59 /  20   0   0  20
WINSTON                 37  68  40  64 /  20  10   0  20
HILLSBORO               43  74  47  69 /   0   0   0  10
SPACEPORT               45  76  49  72 /   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            35  69  38  66 /  10  10  10  20
HURLEY                  41  73  43  68 /   0   0   0  10
CLIFF                   37  77  42  71 /  10  10  10  20
MULE CREEK              35  75  40  69 /  10   0  10  20
FAYWOOD                 42  74  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
ANIMAS                  45  82  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 44  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  80  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              44  77  45  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&


$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KMAF 292006 CCA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
306 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
As an upper low across NM is lifting newd into SE Colorado with the
assocd Pacific front having moved e of the area leaving very windy
and dry conditions in its wake. NPW remains in effect with no
changes from previous issuance. Winds will subside pretty quickly
early this evening with a loose MSLP gradient overnight. A cooler
start is expected Sat AM, but still warming to around or just
below normal. Meanwhile a cold front will be dropping south
through the plains early Sun AM arriving into nrn CWFA around 12Z
Sun as another upper low to the west quickly fills and lifts thru
nrn NM. This will set-up an overrunning regime in the lower levels
resulting in increased clouds and light precip Sun AM, mostly
north of I-20 where temps may actually slowly fall thru the day as
NE winds increase. By late Sun night/early Mon AM a mid level
speed max atop the low level overrunning will be sufficient for
precip to develop. Most precip will likely be stratiform, but will
mention possibility of an isold embedded storms per lapse rates.
Light precip will attempt to develop wwd into Mon AM, but not
expected to make it thru the mtns. High temps Mon AM will be well
below normal under cloudy skies. Temps will still be well below
normal Tue, even s/w of the Pecos River. Mid level flow amplifies
Wed/Thur with ridging accompanied by a noticeable warm-up Wed-
Fri.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire wx conditions across the wrn half of the CWFA will
subside this evening probably before the scheduled expiration of
03Z. For the next few hrs min RHS around 10% and 20ft west winds
of 20-30 mph and gusty are expected. We have opted to cancel the
Fire Weather Watch for Saturday as winds in the 5kft-10kft layer
are not indicative of widespread concerns, despite min RHs near 10
pct and warmer temps than today. A pattern change on Sun/Mon will
bring much cooler conditions with higher RHs to the mtns.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  81  52  66 /  10   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       49  82  49  62 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         60  92  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  55  87  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  76  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  78  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  78  39  76 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  84  54  70 /  10   0  10  40
Odessa                         53  84  53  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  88  54  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KCRP 291949
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
249 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...18Z SOUNDING SHOWS
A PRETTY STOUT CAP REMAINING.  WITH STRONG LLVL FLOW MIXING OUT
ANY FOCUSING BOUNDARIES THERE LOOKS TO BE LESS AND LESS CHANCE
FOR STORMS TO INITIATE IN THE SHORT TERM ACRS OUR CWFA. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS THROUGH THE EVENING IN CASE SOMETHING DOES FIRE
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE LATER TNGT INTO SATURDAY.
ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN VERY HIGH
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.  PREV TEMP FCSTS LOOK FINE TNGT.

EXPECT AN MCS TO APPRCH THER NORTHERN CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY LAY OUT A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DVLPMNT ON SATURDAY. AGAIN THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES...AS WELL AS THE THREAT FOR A STRONG STORM...WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN TODAY AS A
LITTLE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED.


&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED...THEN DRIER AND COOLER BEYOND THAT.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS A SLOW MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF APPROACH THE COASTAL BEND. MODERATE CAP
STILL IN PLACE WHICH LOOKS TO LIMIT POTENTIAL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT
ARRIVE. HIGH PWATS AND SLOW MOVEMENT INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. BY TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE
GONE...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE ONGOING COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENT THREATS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WELL INTO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTN. EXPECT
WINDS TO SUBSIDE A LITTLE THIS EVENING AND WILL GIVE THE SCA OVER
THE BAYS A CHANCE TO EXPIRE ON TIME. OTHW WINDS WILL DECREASE
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ON SATURDAY BUT BIG WAVES AND SWELLS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS ROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SWELLS ALREADY AROUND 8 SECONDS
AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS SO WAVE RUN UP AND RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
CONTINUE FOR AWHILE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  75  88  73  /  30  40  10  20  40
VICTORIA          74  87  73  84  70  /  60  60  10  30  40
LAREDO            74  98  73  94  73  /  20  20  10  20  30
ALICE             74  92  74  88  72  /  30  40  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          76  86  76  87  75  /  40  50  10  20  40
COTULLA           71  94  72  89  70  /  30  20  10  20  30
KINGSVILLE        76  91  75  89  74  /  20  40  10  20  30
NAVY CORPUS       76  84  76  87  76  /  30  40  10  20  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TJ/70...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 291937
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
237 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR ALL MODES TO OCCUR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

...LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST OF A
BONHAM...CORSICANA... HEARNE LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH 124 FOR ALL BUT JACK...PALO PINTO...EASTLAND...STEPHENS
AND YOUNG COUNTIES CONTINUES THROUGH 03Z/10 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE IN THE STRONG WAA SECTOR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH OTHER DISCRETE CELLS
FIRING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RIPE FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO
ABUNDANT MOISTURE/SHEAR/AND INSTABILITY. ALL INTERESTS WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM NOW THROUGH
MID EVENING. STORMS MAY BE DISCRETE AND SUPERCELLULAR IN STRUCTURE
OR OCCUR IN STORM CLUSTERS AS LARGE- SCALE ASCENT CONTINUE MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. BY EARLY EVENING...STORMS
SHOULD MORPH INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR A BROKEN SQUALL LINE
MOVING ACROSS THOSE AREAS EAST OF EAST OF I-35/35E TONIGHT. MESO-
LOW TYPE TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...CONSIDERING MOIST SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 70S
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW LCL/S AND CLOUD BASES. IN ADDITION...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THREATS AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BONHAM...ROCKWALL...CORSICANA TO HEARNE LINE WHERE 1-2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES POSSIBLE TONIGHT. IT/S A LITTLE LATE IN THE GAME FOR ANY
FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCHES...BUT THESE AREAS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR HYDROLOGIC WARNINGS IN ADDITION TO ALL THE SEVERE
WEATHER WARNINGS. THE CURRENT MID LEVEL TROUGH NEGATIVELY ROTATING
OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT
PROGRESSIVELY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. SUBSEQUENTLY THE
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST TX WILL ALSO LIFT RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND EXIT
OUT OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID-LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BRIEFLY
MARK AND END TO RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX AS BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT AND ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WILL MAINLY COOL HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THIS FRONT.

ANOTHER STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THINGS THIS TIME AROUND...AS A STATIONARY FRONT SEPARATING
VERY HUMID AND MOIST AIR WITH COOL AND MOIST AIR REMAINS SETTLED
ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL EVEN BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND LIFT QUICKLY TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
BY MONDAY EVENING. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
MAJOR HYDROLOGICAL EVENT...THOUGH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
AGGRAVATE ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION...SO
A FEW ELEVATED STRONG STORMS CONTAINING HAIL AND LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OR SEMI-DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE AREA SHOULD FINALLY GET TIME TO DRY OUT AND RECOVER
FROM THESE CURRENT ROUNDS OF STORMS EXPECTED EITHER SIDE OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE AS WELL.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1250 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER WEST TEXAS WILL PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING AROUND DAWN.
CURRENTLY MOST OF CENTRAL TEXAS IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS PRODUCING VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH CAPE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2500J/KG. LATEST RADAR DATA IS SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES AND IN THE VICINITY OF WACO.

DUE TO THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION..SOME SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL..DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE METROPLEX AND ACT TAF SITES
AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

50


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    65  80  59  78  58 /  50  10   5   5  40
WACO                64  83  59  80  58 /  60  10   5  10  50
PARIS               65  78  58  79  56 /  80  30   5   5  40
DENTON              61  79  55  76  55 /  40   5   5   5  40
MCKINNEY            63  79  57  77  56 /  60  10   5   5  40
DALLAS              65  82  60  79  58 /  50  10   5   5  40
TERRELL             65  81  58  79  58 /  70  20   5   5  40
CORSICANA           66  83  61  80  60 /  80  20   5  10  40
TEMPLE              64  83  61  81  60 /  60  10  10  10  50
MINERAL WELLS       58  79  55  75  55 /  30   5   5  10  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

/05



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBRO 291933
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
MX IS MOVING IN HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS S TEXAS MOST OF
TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. HAZE COMING FROM AGRICULTURAL
BURNING IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TOMORROW AS THE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS
PROVIDING FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STARTING TO FIRE UP AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDS GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THIS FAR INTO SOUTH TEXAS AS
INSTABILITY LOWERS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WITH THAT SAID,
CONVECTION COULD PUSH DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS THE S CENTRAL TEXAS AND
COULD IMPACT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
COULD BE HIGHER WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE
OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE MODIFIED TO A FEW DEGREES
LOWER AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH THE UPPER 90S WITH THE OVC
TO BKN THICK CLOUD DECK. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DAY AND WEAKEN BY THE LATE EVENING BECOMING LIGHTER AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE SE FLOW
WILL WEAKEN CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE MORNING HOURS. THE
ABUNDANCE OF SMOKE/HAZE IN THE AIR IN TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER AROUND OF HAZE AND PATCHY FOG MIX TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHIFT IN THE
SE FLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY COULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER S TEXAS SATURDAY. EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO REMAIN TOWARDS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. SAT AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRY AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT
LOW`S IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SECOND OF TWO MID LVL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SAT NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RGV. THE BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE WEST
COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NOT PROVIDE A LOT OF SUPPORT TO
THE TRAILING END OF A COLD FRONT MORE OR LESS WASHED OUT OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FOUR CORNERS LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN BY MON AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST. THE
RIDGING WILL HELP PUSH A MORE DEFINITIVE FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RGV LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THUS...WEATHER
CHANCES WILL BE BEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
IMPROVEMENTS DUE TO SPREADING HIGH PRESSURE TAKE OVER FOR THE REST
OF THE LONG TERM...OR THE MID AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

BACK TO THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
LINGER ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SINCE IT
WILL NOT PUSH THROUGH WITH ANY SENSE OF URGENCY OR STRENGTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ HAS PLACED ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

ONSHORE...IF NOT SOUTHEAST...SURFACE FLOW WILL MORE OR LESS CONTINUE
SUNDAY IN SPITE OF THE FIRST FRONT...ALLOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
PENETRATE INTO THE AREA...PROVIDING WEAK THOUGH IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL
LIFT.

ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE LATE MONDAY COLD FRONT. BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT/
CHANCE OF STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE LATE MONDAY OR EVEN MONDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS HANG ON TO RAIN CHANCES INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH THE
ECMWF COVERAGE/AMOUNTS IN THE MODEL SEEM A BIT MORE ROBUST THROUGH
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PALPABLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG OVER THE
GULF WATERS AT THIS TIME KEEPING A SOUTHERLY WIND UP TO 20 TO 22
KNOTS AND GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL JET KEEP STREAMING ACROSS OUR AREA KEEPING TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE WINDS WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY
LOWER SEAS. THE SE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A TAIL END OF A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MARINE ZONES. SEAS BEGIN
TO LOWER TO 5 TO 6 BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL LOCALLY...JUST SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MORE
CONVINCINGLY BY MONDAY WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING
SOUTH FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
AND STRENGTHEN LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
GETTING ABOVE 20 KNOTS ON THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT.
SUBSEQUENTLY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS RESPOND BY BUILDING TO SEVEN FEET
FOR A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA AND SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  85  77  86 /  10  20  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  89  77  88 /  10  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            77  91  76  90 /  10  20  10  20
MCALLEN              77  95  77  93 /  10  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  95  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  81  77  83 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/54




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291933
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
MX IS MOVING IN HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS S TEXAS MOST OF
TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. HAZE COMING FROM AGRICULTURAL
BURNING IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO TOMORROW AS THE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS
PROVIDING FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STARTING TO FIRE UP AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDS GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO
ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THIS FAR INTO SOUTH TEXAS AS
INSTABILITY LOWERS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WITH THAT SAID,
CONVECTION COULD PUSH DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS THE S CENTRAL TEXAS AND
COULD IMPACT THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
COULD BE HIGHER WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE
OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE MODIFIED TO A FEW DEGREES
LOWER AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH THE UPPER 90S WITH THE OVC
TO BKN THICK CLOUD DECK. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DAY AND WEAKEN BY THE LATE EVENING BECOMING LIGHTER AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE SE FLOW
WILL WEAKEN CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE MORNING HOURS. THE
ABUNDANCE OF SMOKE/HAZE IN THE AIR IN TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER AROUND OF HAZE AND PATCHY FOG MIX TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHIFT IN THE
SE FLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY COULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER S TEXAS SATURDAY. EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO REMAIN TOWARDS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. SAT AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...DRY AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT
LOW`S IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SECOND OF TWO MID LVL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SAT NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RGV. THE BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE WEST
COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL NOT PROVIDE A LOT OF SUPPORT TO
THE TRAILING END OF A COLD FRONT MORE OR LESS WASHED OUT OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FOUR CORNERS LOW WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN BY MON AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST. THE
RIDGING WILL HELP PUSH A MORE DEFINITIVE FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RGV LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THUS...WEATHER
CHANCES WILL BE BEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
IMPROVEMENTS DUE TO SPREADING HIGH PRESSURE TAKE OVER FOR THE REST
OF THE LONG TERM...OR THE MID AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

BACK TO THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
LINGER ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SINCE IT
WILL NOT PUSH THROUGH WITH ANY SENSE OF URGENCY OR STRENGTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ HAS PLACED ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

ONSHORE...IF NOT SOUTHEAST...SURFACE FLOW WILL MORE OR LESS CONTINUE
SUNDAY IN SPITE OF THE FIRST FRONT...ALLOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
PENETRATE INTO THE AREA...PROVIDING WEAK THOUGH IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL
LIFT.

ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE LATE MONDAY COLD FRONT. BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE BEST LIFT/
CHANCE OF STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE LATE MONDAY OR EVEN MONDAY
NIGHT. BOTH MODELS HANG ON TO RAIN CHANCES INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH THE
ECMWF COVERAGE/AMOUNTS IN THE MODEL SEEM A BIT MORE ROBUST THROUGH
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PALPABLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG OVER THE
GULF WATERS AT THIS TIME KEEPING A SOUTHERLY WIND UP TO 20 TO 22
KNOTS AND GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL JET KEEP STREAMING ACROSS OUR AREA KEEPING TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE WINDS WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY
LOWER SEAS. THE SE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A TAIL END OF A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MARINE ZONES. SEAS BEGIN
TO LOWER TO 5 TO 6 BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL LOCALLY...JUST SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH MORE
CONVINCINGLY BY MONDAY WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING
SOUTH FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
AND STRENGTHEN LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
GETTING ABOVE 20 KNOTS ON THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT.
SUBSEQUENTLY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS RESPOND BY BUILDING TO SEVEN FEET
FOR A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA AND SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  85  77  86 /  10  20  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  89  77  88 /  10  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            77  91  76  90 /  10  20  10  20
MCALLEN              77  95  77  93 /  10  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  95  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  81  77  83 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/54




000
FXUS64 KMAF 291912
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
212 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
As an upper low across NM is lifting newd into SE Colorado with the
assocd Pacific front having moved e of the area leaving very windy
and dry conditions in its wake. NPW remains in effect with no
changes from previous issuance. Winds will subside pretty quickly
early this evening with a loose MSLP gradient overnight. A cooler
start is expected Sat AM, but still warming to around or just
below normal. Meanwhile a cold front will be dropping south
through the plains early Sun AM arriving into nrn CWFA around 12Z
Sun as another upper low to the west quickly fills and lifts thru
nrn NM. This will set-up an overrunning regime in the lower levels
resulting in increased clouds and light precip Sun AM, mostly
north of I-20 where temps may actually slowly fall thru the day as
NE winds increase. By late Sun night/early Mon AM a mid level
speed max atop the low level overrunning will be sufficient for
precip to develop. Most precip will likely be stratiform, but will
mention possibility of an isold embedded storms per lapse rates.
Light precip will attempt to develop wwd into Mon AM, but not
expected to make it thru the mtns. High temps Mon AM will be well
below normal under cloudy skies. Temps will still be well below
normal Tue, even s/w of the Pecos River. Mid level flow amplifies
Wed/Thur with ridging accompanied by a noticeable warm-up Wed-
Fri.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire wx conditions across the wrn half of the CWFA will
subside this evening probably before the scheduled expiration of
03Z. For the next few hrs min RHS around 10% and 20ft west winds
of 20-30 mph and gusty are expected. We have opted to cancel the
Fire Weather Watch for Friday as winds in the 5kft-10kft layer
are not indicative of widespread concerns, despite min RHs near
10 pct and warmer temps than today. A pattern change on Sun/Mon
will bring much cooler conditions with higher RHs to the mtns.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  81  52  66 /  10   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       49  82  49  62 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         60  92  63  85 /  10   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  55  87  56  77 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 46  76  46  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  78  45  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  78  39  76 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  84  54  70 /  10   0  10  40
Odessa                         53  84  53  70 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  88  54  70 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 291822 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
122 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 124 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BUT JACK...PALO PINTO...
EASTLAND...STEPHENS AND YOUNG COUNTIES THROUGH 03Z/10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. AS NOTED ON MY EARLIER DISCUSSION...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
RIPE WITH MOISTURE/SHEAR/AND INSTABILITY FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES.

ALL INTERESTS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FROM NOW THROUGH MID EVENING. STORMS MAY BE INITIALLY
DISCRETE IN NATURE AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPROACHES DURING PRIME
AFTERNOON HEATING AND IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS. BY EARLY
EVENING...STORMS SHOULD MORPH INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR A
BROKEN SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH AREAS EAST OF I-35/35E. EVEN
SO...MESO-LOW TYPE TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH
SURFACE DEW PTS AND LOW LCL/S. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THREATS.

LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A
BONHAM...ROCKWALL...CORSICANA TO HEARNE LINE WHERE 1-2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IT/S A LITTLE LATE IN THE GAME FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES...BUT THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO WATCHED FOR HYDROLOGIC
WARNINGS IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS...INCLUDING
TORNADOES.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1250 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER WEST TEXAS WILL PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING AROUND DAWN.
CURRENTLY MOST OF CENTRAL TEXAS IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS PRODUCING VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH CAPE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2500J/KG. LATEST RADAR DATA IS SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES AND IN THE VICINITY OF WACO.

DUE TO THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION..SOME SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL..DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE METROPLEX AND ACT TAF SITES
AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

50


&&

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECASTS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD...ALONG
WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/35W. A
STRONG NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES ROTATING NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT MIDDAY. A BROAD SURFACE LOW
AND TRIPLE-POINT WAS NOTED FROM SNYDER TO SEYMOUR...WITH A WARM
FRONT TAILING BACK ESE ALONG A BRIDGEPORT/BOWIE...TO MCKINNEY...
TO COOPER/SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. A DRYLINE TAILING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FROM THE SURFACE LOW WAS ALREADY BULGING EAST TOWARD ABILENE IN
RESPONSE TO ENHANCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE WARM AND HUMID SECTOR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONG
AFTERNOONHEATING TO PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL INCREASE BY 2 PM CDT AND AFTER FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE STORMS ALONG OR JUST WEST OF I-35 IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. INITIALLY...DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOW LCL/S WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SURFACE DEW PT TEMPERATURES
ARE HIGH AND IN THE LOWER-MID 70S WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BIG WILD CARD LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE HOW LONG DISCRETE STORMS WILL
OCCUR...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OCCURS QUICKLY AT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AND MAY RESULT IN INFLOW INTERRUPTION WITH IF STORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER.

IF ACTIVITY BECOMES TOO WIDESPREAD TOO FAST...THEN DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL BE LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR
LEWPS WITH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS DUE
TO VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA WITH CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE
CELLS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE PUSHING BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CAPE BELOW CLOUD BASE FOR POTENTIAL TORNADOES.
SEVERAL OFFICES INCLUDING OURS ARE SENDING UP SPECIAL MIDDAY SOUNDINGS
TO ASSESS OUR ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL AND THE FEELING IS THIS
COULD BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER DAY.

AFTER COLLABORATION...THE ENHANCED RISK WAS EXTENDED SOUTH ALL
THE WAY INTO EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS DUE TO THE
STRONG HODOGRAPHS AND INSTABILITY. ALL PARTIES SHOULD BE ON HIGH
ALERT BEGINNING AFTER 2 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. A SQUALL LINE WILL EVOLVE BY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR E/SE COUNTIES WITH THE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT.

HYDROLOGICALLY...THOUGH LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE EAST OF I-35...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE EXPECTED
LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME AGGRAVATION OF RIVER
FLOODING THROUGH RUN-OFF ACROSS PARTICULARLY THE TRINITY AND
SABINE BASINS. THE MID-LOWER BRAZOS COULD SEE SOME EFFECTS AS
WELL.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WARM FRONT HAS
BEEN THE CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION THROUGH THE MORNING.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL END UP
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER. THIS WILL LEAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE MORNING AS LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING 4 CORNERS LOW INCREASES...STORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON AN EASTWARD
MOVING DRYLINE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A
GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUSTAIN TALL UPDRAFTS.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE WEST/NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA.

STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
END UP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME
SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL INTO EAST TEXAS.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET SATURDAY AND BRING AN
END TO ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ENERGY AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND
GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING
RAIN-FREE WEATHER TO ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    65  80  59  78  58 /  40  10   5   5  10
WACO                64  83  59  80  58 /  50  20  10   5  10
PARIS               65  78  58  79  56 /  70  30  10   5  10
DENTON              61  79  55  76  55 /  40  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY            63  79  57  77  56 /  50  10  10   5  10
DALLAS              65  82  60  79  58 /  50  10  10   5  10
TERRELL             65  81  58  79  58 /  60  20  10   5  10
CORSICANA           66  83  61  80  60 /  60  20  10   5  10
TEMPLE              64  83  61  81  60 /  50  20  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS       58  79  55  75  55 /  20   5   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

50/05




000
FXUS64 KFWD 291822 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
122 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 124 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BUT JACK...PALO PINTO...
EASTLAND...STEPHENS AND YOUNG COUNTIES THROUGH 03Z/10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. AS NOTED ON MY EARLIER DISCUSSION...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
RIPE WITH MOISTURE/SHEAR/AND INSTABILITY FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES.

ALL INTERESTS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FROM NOW THROUGH MID EVENING. STORMS MAY BE INITIALLY
DISCRETE IN NATURE AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPROACHES DURING PRIME
AFTERNOON HEATING AND IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS. BY EARLY
EVENING...STORMS SHOULD MORPH INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR A
BROKEN SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH AREAS EAST OF I-35/35E. EVEN
SO...MESO-LOW TYPE TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH
SURFACE DEW PTS AND LOW LCL/S. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THREATS.

LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A
BONHAM...ROCKWALL...CORSICANA TO HEARNE LINE WHERE 1-2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IT/S A LITTLE LATE IN THE GAME FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES...BUT THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO WATCHED FOR HYDROLOGIC
WARNINGS IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS...INCLUDING
TORNADOES.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1250 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER WEST TEXAS WILL PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING AROUND DAWN.
CURRENTLY MOST OF CENTRAL TEXAS IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS PRODUCING VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH CAPE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2500J/KG. LATEST RADAR DATA IS SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES AND IN THE VICINITY OF WACO.

DUE TO THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION..SOME SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL..DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE METROPLEX AND ACT TAF SITES
AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

50


&&

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECASTS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD...ALONG
WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/35W. A
STRONG NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES ROTATING NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT MIDDAY. A BROAD SURFACE LOW
AND TRIPLE-POINT WAS NOTED FROM SNYDER TO SEYMOUR...WITH A WARM
FRONT TAILING BACK ESE ALONG A BRIDGEPORT/BOWIE...TO MCKINNEY...
TO COOPER/SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. A DRYLINE TAILING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FROM THE SURFACE LOW WAS ALREADY BULGING EAST TOWARD ABILENE IN
RESPONSE TO ENHANCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE WARM AND HUMID SECTOR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONG
AFTERNOONHEATING TO PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL INCREASE BY 2 PM CDT AND AFTER FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE STORMS ALONG OR JUST WEST OF I-35 IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. INITIALLY...DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOW LCL/S WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SURFACE DEW PT TEMPERATURES
ARE HIGH AND IN THE LOWER-MID 70S WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BIG WILD CARD LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE HOW LONG DISCRETE STORMS WILL
OCCUR...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OCCURS QUICKLY AT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AND MAY RESULT IN INFLOW INTERRUPTION WITH IF STORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER.

IF ACTIVITY BECOMES TOO WIDESPREAD TOO FAST...THEN DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL BE LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR
LEWPS WITH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS DUE
TO VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA WITH CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE
CELLS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE PUSHING BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CAPE BELOW CLOUD BASE FOR POTENTIAL TORNADOES.
SEVERAL OFFICES INCLUDING OURS ARE SENDING UP SPECIAL MIDDAY SOUNDINGS
TO ASSESS OUR ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL AND THE FEELING IS THIS
COULD BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER DAY.

AFTER COLLABORATION...THE ENHANCED RISK WAS EXTENDED SOUTH ALL
THE WAY INTO EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS DUE TO THE
STRONG HODOGRAPHS AND INSTABILITY. ALL PARTIES SHOULD BE ON HIGH
ALERT BEGINNING AFTER 2 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. A SQUALL LINE WILL EVOLVE BY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR E/SE COUNTIES WITH THE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT.

HYDROLOGICALLY...THOUGH LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE EAST OF I-35...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE EXPECTED
LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD LIMIT ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME AGGRAVATION OF RIVER
FLOODING THROUGH RUN-OFF ACROSS PARTICULARLY THE TRINITY AND
SABINE BASINS. THE MID-LOWER BRAZOS COULD SEE SOME EFFECTS AS
WELL.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WARM FRONT HAS
BEEN THE CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION THROUGH THE MORNING.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL END UP
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER. THIS WILL LEAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE MORNING AS LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING 4 CORNERS LOW INCREASES...STORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON AN EASTWARD
MOVING DRYLINE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A
GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUSTAIN TALL UPDRAFTS.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE WEST/NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA.

STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
END UP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME
SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL INTO EAST TEXAS.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET SATURDAY AND BRING AN
END TO ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ENERGY AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND
GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING
RAIN-FREE WEATHER TO ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    65  80  59  78  58 /  40  10   5   5  10
WACO                64  83  59  80  58 /  50  20  10   5  10
PARIS               65  78  58  79  56 /  70  30  10   5  10
DENTON              61  79  55  76  55 /  40  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY            63  79  57  77  56 /  50  10  10   5  10
DALLAS              65  82  60  79  58 /  50  10  10   5  10
TERRELL             65  81  58  79  58 /  60  20  10   5  10
CORSICANA           66  83  61  80  60 /  60  20  10   5  10
TEMPLE              64  83  61  81  60 /  50  20  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS       58  79  55  75  55 /  20   5   5   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

50/05




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291808
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
108 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LLJ GRADUALLY SHIFTS E
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS LOWERING CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AT AROUND 10
KNOTS. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HAZE FROM AGRICULTURAL
BURNS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EXPECT THE A MIX OF HAZE AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND MVFR AND CLOSE TO IFR NEAR THE MORNING HRS.
WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER
TO OUR AREA. THE WINDS QUICKLY RETURN TO THE SE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS MAINTAINED THEMSELVES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE SURFACE WINDS KICKED UP
TO NEAR MODERATE LEVELS. WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL PRODUCE VFR
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH SUNSET. THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THIS WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
BRO CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO ENSURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH/OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...THE FRONT
INTRUDES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA UNDER A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THOSE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. ALSO...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACING THE ENTIRE BRO CWFA ON A GENERAL
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...A SERIES OF 500MB
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS WITH ONE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CERTAIN FEATURES EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ HAS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THE ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ROBUST RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...WILL HOLD SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 4 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SLOW APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL IMPROVE WINDS ON SATURDAY...
BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OFFSHORE DUE TO ROUGH SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES ON THE GULF
WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/99




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291753 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A CHALLENGING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AVIATION FORECAST
PERIOD. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD AND ALONG A DRYLINE LINE. THERE IS
PLENTY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. A SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE I-35
CORRIDOR TERMINALS AROUND 21/22Z TO ABOUT 23Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE I-35 SITES FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIOD WITH SOME IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. CIGS AND VBSYS WILL PROBABLY
LOWER TO IFR /LIFR WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS TERMINALS.
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS COULD RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITH
STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE I-35
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A LULL AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT PER LATEST HRRR
SOLUTION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

UPDATE...12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND 3-6 SM VISIBILITY IN HZ/BR
OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. EXCEPTION IS AT DRT
WHERE LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY OCCURRING ALONG WITH
PATCHY -DZ. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE BACK INTO MVFR AFTER 16Z AT
SAT/AUS/DRT...AND CLEARING AT DRT AROUND 18Z AS WEAK FRONT/DRY
LINE MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE AS WELL AS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR NOW THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED TSTMS THEN POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE DRY LINE...ACROSS THE EASTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. VCTS REMAINS IN
SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A LOW OVER UT AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS MADE THE FLOW OVER TEXAS
SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A DRYLINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT IN NM. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING THE DRYLINE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL HAVE
A HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH AND WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA INTO
SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE OF
2500-3000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
SUGGEST MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY EAST OF A LINE FROM LLANO TO KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL. EXPECT
STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STRUGGLES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST AND THIS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY
BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH TUESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  88  65  82  63 /  60  20  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  87  64  82  63 /  60  30  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  65  82  65 /  60  30  10  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  87  61  79  60 /  40  10  10  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  91  66  87  66 /  10  10  10  20  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  87  62  80  61 /  50  20  10  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  91  65  85  65 /  40  20  10  10  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  65  83  65 /  60  30  10  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  84  68  83  66 /  70  60  20  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  88  66  83  65 /  50  30  10  10  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  89  67  85  68 /  50  30  10  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291753 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1253 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A CHALLENGING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AVIATION FORECAST
PERIOD. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD AND ALONG A DRYLINE LINE. THERE IS
PLENTY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. A SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE I-35
CORRIDOR TERMINALS AROUND 21/22Z TO ABOUT 23Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE I-35 SITES FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIOD WITH SOME IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. CIGS AND VBSYS WILL PROBABLY
LOWER TO IFR /LIFR WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS TERMINALS.
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS COULD RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITH
STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE I-35
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A LULL AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT PER LATEST HRRR
SOLUTION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

UPDATE...12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND 3-6 SM VISIBILITY IN HZ/BR
OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. EXCEPTION IS AT DRT
WHERE LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY OCCURRING ALONG WITH
PATCHY -DZ. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE BACK INTO MVFR AFTER 16Z AT
SAT/AUS/DRT...AND CLEARING AT DRT AROUND 18Z AS WEAK FRONT/DRY
LINE MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE AS WELL AS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR NOW THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED TSTMS THEN POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE DRY LINE...ACROSS THE EASTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. VCTS REMAINS IN
SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A LOW OVER UT AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS MADE THE FLOW OVER TEXAS
SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A DRYLINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT IN NM. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING THE DRYLINE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL HAVE
A HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH AND WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA INTO
SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE OF
2500-3000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
SUGGEST MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY EAST OF A LINE FROM LLANO TO KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL. EXPECT
STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STRUGGLES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST AND THIS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY
BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH TUESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  88  65  82  63 /  60  20  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  87  64  82  63 /  60  30  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  88  65  82  65 /  60  30  10  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  87  61  79  60 /  40  10  10  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  91  66  87  66 /  10  10  10  20  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  87  62  80  61 /  50  20  10  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  91  65  85  65 /  40  20  10  10  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        67  87  65  83  65 /  60  30  10  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  84  68  83  66 /  70  60  20  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  88  66  83  65 /  50  30  10  10  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  89  67  85  68 /  50  30  10  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KFWD 291750
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...

A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER WEST TEXAS WILL PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING AROUND DAWN.
CURRENTLY MOST OF CENTRAL TEXAS IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS PRODUCING VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH CAPE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2500J/KG. LATEST RADAR DATA IS SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES AND IN THE VICINITY OF WACO.

DUE TO THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION..SOME SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL..DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE METROPLEX AND ACT TAF SITES
AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

50

&&

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECASTS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD...ALONG
WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/35W. A
STRONG NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES ROTATING NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT MIDDAY. A BROAD SURFACE LOW
AND TRIPLE-POINT WAS NOTED FROM SNYDER TO SEYMOUR...WITH A WARM
FRONT TAILING BACK ESE ALONG A BRIDGEPORT/BOWIE...TO MCKINNEY...
TO COOPER/SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. A DRYLINE TAILING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FROM THE SURFACE LOW WAS ALREADY BULGING EAST TOWARD ABILENE IN
RESPONSE TO ENHANCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE WARM AND HUMID SECTOR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONGAFTERNOON
HEATING TO PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE BY 2 PM CDT AND AFTER FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
STORMS ALONG OR JUST WEST OF I-35 IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. INITIALLY...DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOW LCL/S WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SURFACE DEW PT TEMPERATURES
ARE HIGH AND IN THE LOWER-MID 70S WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BIG WILD CARD LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE HOW LONG DISCRETE STORMS WILL
OCCUR...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OCCURS QUICKLY AT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AND MAY RESULT IN INFLOW INTERRUPTION WITH IF STORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER.

IF ACTIVITY BECOMES TOO WIDESPREAD TOO FAST...THEN DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL BE LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR
LEWPS WITH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS DUE
TO VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA WITH CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON FORCAST SOUNDSING.
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE
CELLS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE PUSHING BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CAPE BELOW CLOUD BASE FOR POTENTIAL
TORNADOGENESIS. SEVERAL OFFICES INCLUDING OURS ARE SENDING UP
SPECIAL MIDDAY SOUNDINGS TO ASSESS OUR ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL
AND THE FEELING IS THIS COULD BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER DAY.

AFTER COLLABORATION...THE ENHANCED RISK WAS EXTENDED SOUTH ALL
THE WAY INTO EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS DUE TO THE
STRONG HODOGRAPHS AND INSTABILITY. ALL PARTIES SHOULD BE ON HIGH
ALERT BEGINNING AFTER 2 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. A SQUALL LINE WILL EVOLVE BY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR E/SE COUNTIES WITH THE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT.

HYDROLOGICALLY...THOUGH LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-35...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD LIMIT ANY
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME
AGGRAVATION OF RIVER FLOODING THROUGH RUN-OFF ACROSS PARTICULARLY
THE TRINITY AND SABINE BASINS. THE MID-LOWER BRAZOS COULD SEE SOME
EFFECTS AS WELL.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WARM FRONT HAS
BEEN THE CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION THROUGH THE MORNING.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL END UP
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER. THIS WILL LEAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE MORNING AS LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING 4 CORNERS LOW INCREASES...STORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON AN EASTWARD
MOVING DRYLINE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A
GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUSTAIN TALL UPDRAFTS.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE WEST/NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA.

STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
END UP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME
SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL INTO EAST TEXAS.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET SATURDAY AND BRING AN
END TO ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ENERGY AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND
GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING
RAIN-FREE WEATHER TO ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    81  65  80  58  78 /  70  40  10   5   5
WACO                82  64  83  58  80 /  70  50  20  10   5
PARIS               78  65  78  57  79 /  80  70  30  10   5
DENTON              79  61  79  54  76 /  60  40  10   5   5
MCKINNEY            79  63  79  56  77 /  70  50  10  10   5
DALLAS              81  65  82  59  79 /  70  50  10  10   5
TERRELL             81  65  81  57  79 /  80  60  20  10   5
CORSICANA           82  66  83  60  80 /  70  60  20  10   5
TEMPLE              81  64  83  60  81 /  70  50  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS       81  58  79  54  75 /  50  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

50




000
FXUS64 KFWD 291750
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...

A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
OVER WEST TEXAS WILL PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING AROUND DAWN.
CURRENTLY MOST OF CENTRAL TEXAS IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS PRODUCING VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH CAPE VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 2500J/KG. LATEST RADAR DATA IS SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES AND IN THE VICINITY OF WACO.

DUE TO THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION..SOME SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL..DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE METROPLEX AND ACT TAF SITES
AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

50

&&

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECASTS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD...ALONG
WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/35W. A
STRONG NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES ROTATING NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT MIDDAY. A BROAD SURFACE LOW
AND TRIPLE-POINT WAS NOTED FROM SNYDER TO SEYMOUR...WITH A WARM
FRONT TAILING BACK ESE ALONG A BRIDGEPORT/BOWIE...TO MCKINNEY...
TO COOPER/SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. A DRYLINE TAILING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FROM THE SURFACE LOW WAS ALREADY BULGING EAST TOWARD ABILENE IN
RESPONSE TO ENHANCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE WARM AND HUMID SECTOR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONGAFTERNOON
HEATING TO PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE BY 2 PM CDT AND AFTER FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
STORMS ALONG OR JUST WEST OF I-35 IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. INITIALLY...DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOW LCL/S WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SURFACE DEW PT TEMPERATURES
ARE HIGH AND IN THE LOWER-MID 70S WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BIG WILD CARD LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE HOW LONG DISCRETE STORMS WILL
OCCUR...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OCCURS QUICKLY AT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AND MAY RESULT IN INFLOW INTERRUPTION WITH IF STORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER.

IF ACTIVITY BECOMES TOO WIDESPREAD TOO FAST...THEN DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL BE LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR
LEWPS WITH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS DUE
TO VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA WITH CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON FORCAST SOUNDSING.
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE
CELLS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE PUSHING BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CAPE BELOW CLOUD BASE FOR POTENTIAL
TORNADOGENESIS. SEVERAL OFFICES INCLUDING OURS ARE SENDING UP
SPECIAL MIDDAY SOUNDINGS TO ASSESS OUR ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL
AND THE FEELING IS THIS COULD BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER DAY.

AFTER COLLABORATION...THE ENHANCED RISK WAS EXTENDED SOUTH ALL
THE WAY INTO EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS DUE TO THE
STRONG HODOGRAPHS AND INSTABILITY. ALL PARTIES SHOULD BE ON HIGH
ALERT BEGINNING AFTER 2 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. A SQUALL LINE WILL EVOLVE BY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR E/SE COUNTIES WITH THE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT.

HYDROLOGICALLY...THOUGH LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-35...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD LIMIT ANY
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME
AGGRAVATION OF RIVER FLOODING THROUGH RUN-OFF ACROSS PARTICULARLY
THE TRINITY AND SABINE BASINS. THE MID-LOWER BRAZOS COULD SEE SOME
EFFECTS AS WELL.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WARM FRONT HAS
BEEN THE CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION THROUGH THE MORNING.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL END UP
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER. THIS WILL LEAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE MORNING AS LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING 4 CORNERS LOW INCREASES...STORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON AN EASTWARD
MOVING DRYLINE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A
GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUSTAIN TALL UPDRAFTS.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE WEST/NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA.

STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
END UP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME
SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL INTO EAST TEXAS.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET SATURDAY AND BRING AN
END TO ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ENERGY AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND
GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING
RAIN-FREE WEATHER TO ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    81  65  80  58  78 /  70  40  10   5   5
WACO                82  64  83  58  80 /  70  50  20  10   5
PARIS               78  65  78  57  79 /  80  70  30  10   5
DENTON              79  61  79  54  76 /  60  40  10   5   5
MCKINNEY            79  63  79  56  77 /  70  50  10  10   5
DALLAS              81  65  82  59  79 /  70  50  10  10   5
TERRELL             81  65  81  57  79 /  80  60  20  10   5
CORSICANA           82  66  83  60  80 /  70  60  20  10   5
TEMPLE              81  64  83  60  81 /  70  50  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS       81  58  79  54  75 /  50  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

50




000
FXUS64 KMAF 291744
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1244 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Southwest
winds will remain gusty through early evening, with gusts to 30 to
35KT possible. Gusts will diminish after sunset, with wind speeds
remaining generally 12KT or less thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A potent upper level low pressure system across the Four Corners
Region will move east onto the western High Plains by late this
afternoon. As this occurs westerly flow through the column will
rapidly push drier air east of the area this morning. Will include a
pre first period slight chance for thunderstorms across mainly the
Permian Basin as the dryline surges east. By mid morning windy
conditions are expected areawide due to a decent surface pressure
gradient and deep mixing developing. Decided to issue a Wind
Advisory for much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for today.
Think the mos guidance is underestimating winds based on surface
gradient progged and contributions of stronger winds aloft. Will
continue the High Wind Warning today into this evening for the
Guadalupe Mountains. Went above guidance on high temperatures today
due to strong downslope and clearing skies.

The upper low is forecast to lift slowly northeast into the central
Plains and weaken tonight through Saturday night. This will allow
winds to decrease significantly with mostly clear skies continuing
with near normal temperatures.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday and Monday. Backing mid level flow along with
increasing large scale lift will draw low level moisture
northwestward from the Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will once
again be possible across much of the forecast area these days and
will be enhanced by isentropic lift behind a surface cold front and
surface easterly upslope flow behind the boundary. Behind the front
high temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be much below
normal aided by widespread cloudiness and precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
builds over the forecast area from the west.  There could be
isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out. Temperatures will
remain cool Tuesday and Wednesday and then climb to near normal
values by next Thursday and Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Southeast winds and abundant low level moisture are currently being
seen across the area this morning. An upper level trough will move
across the area today pushing a dryline east and bringing in much
drier air. This combined with gusty west winds will cause Red Flag
conditions from the western Permian Basin, west to the Guadalupe
Mountains. Critical fire weather conditions may be seen farther east
but this area was not included in the Red Flag Warning due to
abundant moisture in the fuels. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
along the dryline as it moves east creating the potential for some
lightning starts.

Saturday the dry air will remain across the area but lighter winds
will diminish the fire weather threat everywhere except the
Guadalupe Mountains. Breezy conditions will remain in the mountains
may create critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon and a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Moisture increases Sunday with
widespread rainfall possible which should end the fire weather
threat for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  80  52  69 /  10   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       49  82  50  63 /   0  10  10  30
Dryden                         59  90  62  84 /  10   0  10  40
Fort Stockton                  54  86  56  77 /   0   0  10  40
Guadalupe Pass                 49  73  47  62 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          46  77  47  63 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  77  44  79 /   0  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           53  84  54  71 /  10   0  10  30
Odessa                         55  83  54  72 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  86  54  73 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291742
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1242 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
29/18Z TAFS HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2500-3500 FEET. LOOKING
FOR SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOTS OF TSRA/VCTS IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS)...BUT HARD TO PINPOINT
WHERE/WHEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. TAFS
WILL BE UPDATED AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS AND EVOLVES.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE. CAP STILL HOLDING AS OF 10 AM BUT STORMS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. CU DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY BE THE PRECURSOR TO THIS AREA OF
DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY WORKING BACK DOWN INTO THE CWA AS CAP
ERODES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE LOWERING OF POPS
SOUTH WHERE STRONGLY CAPPED AND ADDED HAZY. ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON AND WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY (AWAY FROM THE CAP) WILL HAVE THREATS RANGING
FROM TORNADO-WIND-HAIL THREAT IN THE WEST TO HAIL-WIND IN THE
NORTHWEST. THIS EVENING THIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA AND FOR WHAT
IT IS WORTH THE 12Z NAM PAINTS A GRUESOME PICTURE OF A DANGEROUS
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO HUNTSVILLE
NORTHWARD. VERY HIGH LOCALIZED HELICITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH
INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT STILL HIGH AND LATEST HRRR/NAM
INDICATING THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. RAISED POPS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY:
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL MORNING ANTICIPATED. AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE (PW`S 2-2.2") SITUATED IN THE SW GULF WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY UP THE COAST AND INTO SE TX DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THERE`S PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS BEING INITIATED ALONG
DRYLINE IN CNTL TEXAS AND MAKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD INTO SE TX
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY & SHEAR BY THAT TIME FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TO BE A
THREAT (HAIL, WIND, ISO TORNADOES ALL A POSSIBILITY). FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE CELLS.
THE MORE FAVORED LOCATION FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO GENERALLY
BE NORTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 59.

THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING:
THIS IS WHERE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE ON HOW
THINGS WILL EVOLVE. BEST CASE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THE
LINE/COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING ESE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIP IN
ITS WAKE. WORST CASE SCENARIO...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER...IS FOR THE THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED PORTION OF THE
LINE OF STORMS TO RACE EASTWARD LEAVING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE LINE BEHIND AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTATION SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT`LL
BECOME SITUATED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVEMENT
COULD SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVERHEAD INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED MODERATE INFLOW
FEEDING PERPENDICULAR TO SUCH A BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT FF THREAT WHEREVER SUCH A BOUNDARY ENDS UP.
AGAIN...THAT WOULD BE A WORST CASE SITUATION. ANYTHING IN BETWEEN
IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY TIMES THESE EVENTS PLAY OUT ON
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAN WHAT MODELS DEPICT...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION ISN`T VERY HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. BOTTOM LINE IS GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS. EVEN 35-50 MPH WINDS WILL BE A RISK OF DOWNING
TREES. STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
QUICK RUNOFF WILL PRODUCE A FF THREAT. WILL LEAVE FF WATCH AS/IS.

REST OF SATURDAY & SUNDAY:
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT WHERE POTENTIAL BOUNDARIES ARE SITUATED & WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT EVOLVES TONIGHT. A COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
PUSHING INTO SE TX LATE SATURDAY. SUSPECT EVEN IF THERE IS A BREAK
IN THE ACTION DURING THE DAY IT`LL RECOVER ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
SCT PRECIP TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT & SUNDAY.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY MORNING:
ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WESTERN TROF. EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING NEARBY AND PROBABLY SERVE AS A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE
UNNEEDED HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY:
THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVERHEAD. 47

MARINE...
GENERALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WINDS SET TO INCREASE
BY TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING EAST AND HELPS TO DRAW DIS-
TURBANCES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. HAVE KEPT CAUTION FLAGS POS-
TED IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS) BY THIS EVENING.
WINDS/SEAS COULD BE FURTHER ELEVATED IN/NEAR SCT STORMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

HAVE ALSO HOISTED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR BEACHES/
INTERCOASTAL WATERWAY DOWN THE BRAZORIA COUNTY COASTLINE. ONSHORE
WINDS HAVE HELP TO PILE UP WATER ONTO ROADWAYS/LOW-LYING AREAS IN
THESE AREAS DURING HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 87
AND 124 CONNECTION NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  72  83  69  83 /  70 100  60  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  73  82  70  84 /  40  80  70  50  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  76  80  74  80 /  30  50  60  60  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
     SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...
     WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291742
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1242 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
29/18Z TAFS HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2500-3500 FEET. LOOKING
FOR SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOTS OF TSRA/VCTS IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS)...BUT HARD TO PINPOINT
WHERE/WHEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. TAFS
WILL BE UPDATED AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS AND EVOLVES.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE. CAP STILL HOLDING AS OF 10 AM BUT STORMS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. CU DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY BE THE PRECURSOR TO THIS AREA OF
DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY WORKING BACK DOWN INTO THE CWA AS CAP
ERODES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE LOWERING OF POPS
SOUTH WHERE STRONGLY CAPPED AND ADDED HAZY. ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON AND WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY (AWAY FROM THE CAP) WILL HAVE THREATS RANGING
FROM TORNADO-WIND-HAIL THREAT IN THE WEST TO HAIL-WIND IN THE
NORTHWEST. THIS EVENING THIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA AND FOR WHAT
IT IS WORTH THE 12Z NAM PAINTS A GRUESOME PICTURE OF A DANGEROUS
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO HUNTSVILLE
NORTHWARD. VERY HIGH LOCALIZED HELICITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH
INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT STILL HIGH AND LATEST HRRR/NAM
INDICATING THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. RAISED POPS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY:
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL MORNING ANTICIPATED. AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE (PW`S 2-2.2") SITUATED IN THE SW GULF WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY UP THE COAST AND INTO SE TX DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THERE`S PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS BEING INITIATED ALONG
DRYLINE IN CNTL TEXAS AND MAKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD INTO SE TX
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY & SHEAR BY THAT TIME FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TO BE A
THREAT (HAIL, WIND, ISO TORNADOES ALL A POSSIBILITY). FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE CELLS.
THE MORE FAVORED LOCATION FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO GENERALLY
BE NORTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 59.

THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING:
THIS IS WHERE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE ON HOW
THINGS WILL EVOLVE. BEST CASE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THE
LINE/COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING ESE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIP IN
ITS WAKE. WORST CASE SCENARIO...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER...IS FOR THE THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED PORTION OF THE
LINE OF STORMS TO RACE EASTWARD LEAVING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE LINE BEHIND AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTATION SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT`LL
BECOME SITUATED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVEMENT
COULD SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVERHEAD INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED MODERATE INFLOW
FEEDING PERPENDICULAR TO SUCH A BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT FF THREAT WHEREVER SUCH A BOUNDARY ENDS UP.
AGAIN...THAT WOULD BE A WORST CASE SITUATION. ANYTHING IN BETWEEN
IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY TIMES THESE EVENTS PLAY OUT ON
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAN WHAT MODELS DEPICT...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION ISN`T VERY HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. BOTTOM LINE IS GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS. EVEN 35-50 MPH WINDS WILL BE A RISK OF DOWNING
TREES. STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
QUICK RUNOFF WILL PRODUCE A FF THREAT. WILL LEAVE FF WATCH AS/IS.

REST OF SATURDAY & SUNDAY:
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT WHERE POTENTIAL BOUNDARIES ARE SITUATED & WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT EVOLVES TONIGHT. A COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
PUSHING INTO SE TX LATE SATURDAY. SUSPECT EVEN IF THERE IS A BREAK
IN THE ACTION DURING THE DAY IT`LL RECOVER ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
SCT PRECIP TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT & SUNDAY.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY MORNING:
ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WESTERN TROF. EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING NEARBY AND PROBABLY SERVE AS A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE
UNNEEDED HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY:
THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVERHEAD. 47

MARINE...
GENERALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WINDS SET TO INCREASE
BY TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING EAST AND HELPS TO DRAW DIS-
TURBANCES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. HAVE KEPT CAUTION FLAGS POS-
TED IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS) BY THIS EVENING.
WINDS/SEAS COULD BE FURTHER ELEVATED IN/NEAR SCT STORMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

HAVE ALSO HOISTED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR BEACHES/
INTERCOASTAL WATERWAY DOWN THE BRAZORIA COUNTY COASTLINE. ONSHORE
WINDS HAVE HELP TO PILE UP WATER ONTO ROADWAYS/LOW-LYING AREAS IN
THESE AREAS DURING HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 87
AND 124 CONNECTION NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  72  83  69  83 /  70 100  60  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  73  82  70  84 /  40  80  70  50  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  76  80  74  80 /  30  50  60  60  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
     SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...
     WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KCRP 291732
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1232 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE AFTN
WITH A CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND. COULD SEE A
THUNDERSTORM OVER AREAS WELL INLAND BUT DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH CVRG
TO CARRY MENTION IN ANY OF THE TAFS. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESPLY INLAND AND OVER THE NORTH. BEST
THUNDER CHANCES ARE AROUND VCT WHERE A TEMPO GROUP INCLUDING
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TNGT
WITH A LOT OF IFR CEILINGS AROUND LATE NIGHT INTO SAT AM. MOST
SITES SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z OR SO.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD ACRS THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SOME
CLEARING BEGINNING TO SPREAD INLAND OFF THE GULF. THIS HAS HELD
TEMPS BACK SEVERAL DEGREES AND HV MADE ACRS THE BOARD
ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT. HAVEN`T
BACKED HIGHS OFF TOO MUCH THOUGH AS WE ARE STARTING TO SEE BREAKS
INLAND AND THERE ARE A LOT OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL HEATING LEFT.

12Z CRP SOUNDING WAS CAPPED BUT POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE CAP TO BREAK LOOKS TO BE OVER FAR NORTHERN
SECTIONS WHERE THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK. ANYWHERE THE CAP BREAKS
THOUGH STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EXPLOSIVE WITH CAPES NEAR 5000
J/KG AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR. WE`LL BE RELEASING A SPECIAL
18Z SOUNDING TO ASSESS THE STATE OF THE CAP AS WELL AS TO CAPTURE
THE 60+ KNOT FLOW THAT HAS PERSISTED THIS MORNING A FEW THOUSAND
FEET UP. NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN TERMS OF POPS OR STORM
POTENTIAL WITH THE UPDATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS INCREASED TO 35-40 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER WEST TEXAS. LOW CLOUD/FOG SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
STRATUS COVERING ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR
WITH IFR CEILINGS OVER THE COASTAL BEND...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
FOG/HAZE. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO 1500-2500 FEET BY 15-16Z WITH
WINDS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT
BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN IN THE EVENING AND LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO NORTHERN COASTAL BEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTEROON WITH A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT. AS A 25H JET STREAK OF 110 KNOTS SWINGS TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...AN ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MAY
PROVIDE SOME ASSISTANCE FOR LIFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO WEAKEN THE
STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 2500-3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL
BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 40-45 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR DRYLINE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC HAS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN THESE
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOUTHERN COUNTIES WERE NOT
INCLUDED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO STRONGER CAP. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY BUT THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS SATURDAY.

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO INCREASE DURING
THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN 35-40 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING
THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE...BUOY 42002
200 NM EAST OF BROWNSVILLE HAS SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 KNOTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SEAS WITH HIGHER SEAS
REACHING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DELAYED ONSET
OF SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 11Z AND INITIATED SCA FOR
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AT 17Z. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TIDES...WAVE WATCH THREE MODEL SHOWS THE STRONGER WINDS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SWELLS
THAT WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY. WW3 SHOWS
SWELLS OF 7 TO 8 FEET WITH PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS TODAY. TIDE
LEVELS ARE AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE EXPECTED. WITH THESE HIGHER SWELLS
MOVING INTO TODAY...EXPECT TIDE LEVELS WILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEED 2 FEET MSL AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY. EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL SATURDAY
ALONG WITH THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR GULF FACING BEACHES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEAR SFC FLOW BECOMING NEARLY DUE
EASTERLY AS A SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. APPROACH OF A
H5 S/W TROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NE CWA WHERE
MOISTURE DEPTH IS PROG TO BE THE GREATEST. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SUNDAY GIVEN WARM H8 TO H7 THERMAL LAYER WHICH MAY SERVE AS
A LIMITING FACTOR. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ARE PROG TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
CWA. COMBINATION OF THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN ADDITIONAL AND
STRONGER H5 S/W TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION...H25 JET
OVERHEAD...AND HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES /PWATS PROG TO RANGE
FROM 1.6 INCHES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS TO VICTORIA AREA. GIVEN EXPECTED SYNOPTIC
SETUP...SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE
DAY.  SFC FRONT IS PROG TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST AT THAT TIME. ECMWF AND
CMC ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH FROPA AND STRONGER WITH POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER AND DRIER FORECAST
SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK AND AM THEREFORE EXPECTING PLEASANT EARLY
MAY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...CLEARING SKIES...MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES...AND BELOW
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

OF NOTE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SWELL
PERIODS MAY CONTINUE A COASTAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT RIP CURRENT
THREAT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    87  76  88  75  88  /  30  30  40  10  20
VICTORIA          84  74  87  73  84  /  40  60  60  10  30
LAREDO            96  74  98  73  94  /  20  20  20  10  20
ALICE             91  74  92  74  88  /  30  30  40  10  20
ROCKPORT          85  76  86  76  87  /  30  40  50  10  20
COTULLA           92  71  94  72  89  /  30  30  20  10  20
KINGSVILLE        89  76  91  75  89  /  20  20  40  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       85  76  84  76  87  /  30  30  40  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TJ/70...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KFWD 291722 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1222 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...LATEST REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECASTS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD...ALONG
WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/35W. A
STRONG NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES ROTATING NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT MIDDAY. A BROAD SURFACE LOW
AND TRIPLE-POINT WAS NOTED FROM SNYDER TO SEYMOUR...WITH A WARM
FRONT TAILING BACK ESE ALONG A BRIDGEPORT/BOWIE...TO MCKINNEY...
TO COOPER/SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. A DRYLINE TAILING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FROM THE SURFACE LOW WAS ALREADY BULGING EAST TOWARD ABILENE IN
RESPONSE TO ENHANCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE WARM AND HUMID SECTOR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONGAFTERNOON
HEATING TO PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE BY 2 PM CDT AND AFTER FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
STORMS ALONG OR JUST WEST OF I-35 IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. INITIALLY...DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOW LCL/S WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SURFACE DEW PT TEMPERATURES
ARE HIGH AND IN THE LOWER-MID 70S WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BIG WILD CARD LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE HOW LONG DISCRETE STORMS WILL
OCCUR...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OCCURS QUICKLY AT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AND MAY RESULT IN INFLOW INTERRUPTION WITH IF STORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER.

IF ACTIVITY BECOMES TOO WIDESPREAD TOO FAST...THEN DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL BE LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR
LEWPS WITH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS DUE
TO VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA WITH CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON FORCAST SOUNDSING.
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE
CELLS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE PUSHING BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CAPE BELOW CLOUD BASE FOR POTENTIAL
TORNADOGENESIS. SEVERAL OFFICES INCLUDING OURS ARE SENDING UP
SPECIAL MIDDAY SOUNDINGS TO ASSESS OUR ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL
AND THE FEELING IS THIS COULD BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER DAY.

AFTER COLLABORATION...THE ENHANCED RISK WAS EXTENDED SOUTH ALL
THE WAY INTO EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS DUE TO THE
STRONG HODOGRAPHS AND INSTABILITY. ALL PARTIES SHOULD BE ON HIGH
ALERT BEGINNING AFTER 2 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. A SQUALL LINE WILL EVOLVE BY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR E/SE COUNTIES WITH THE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT.

HYDROLOGICALLY...THOUGH LOCALIZED 1-2 INCH
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-35...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD LIMIT ANY
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME
AGGRAVATION OF RIVER FLOODING THROUGH RUN-OFF ACROSS PARTICULARLY
THE TRINITY AND SABINE BASINS. THE MID-LOWER BRAZOS COULD SEE SOME
EFFECTS AS WELL.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 710 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
/12Z TAFS/

PRIMARY CONCERN...THUNDER/SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX...USHERING IN RICH GULF MOISTURE. AIDED BY A NOCTURNAL
LLJ...SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...IN AREAS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF METRO TAF
SITES. EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS ARE NOW IMPACTING THE ARKLATEX...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY AT TAF SITES THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTH...AND THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
IS STEADILY SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN. ADDITIONAL MOIST
ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL DROP CEILINGS BELOW FL010 AT TIMES...
AND THE VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BEFORE
THE LATE APRIL SUN WARMS THE SURFACE LAYER.

A CAP IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WHICH WILL INITIALLY PRECLUDE
SURFACE-BASED STORMS...BUT AS AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PROVIDES LIFT...THIS CAP SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE. IN
THE MEANTIME...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
UPDRAFTS BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS JUST WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS AT TAF SITES WILL BE FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WOULD BE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
NIGHTFALL...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...AND A SHIFT TO NORTH
FLOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WIND
SHIFT HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW
TAF.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WARM FRONT HAS
BEEN THE CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION THROUGH THE MORNING.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL END UP
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER. THIS WILL LEAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE MORNING AS LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING 4 CORNERS LOW INCREASES...STORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON AN EASTWARD
MOVING DRYLINE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A
GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUSTAIN TALL UPDRAFTS.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE WEST/NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA.

STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
END UP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME
SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL INTO EAST TEXAS.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET SATURDAY AND BRING AN
END TO ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ENERGY AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND
GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING
RAIN-FREE WEATHER TO ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    81  65  80  58  78 /  70  40  10   5   5
WACO                82  64  83  58  80 /  70  50  20  10   5
PARIS               78  65  78  57  79 /  80  70  30  10   5
DENTON              79  61  79  54  76 /  60  40  10   5   5
MCKINNEY            79  63  79  56  77 /  70  50  10  10   5
DALLAS              81  65  82  59  79 /  70  50  10  10   5
TERRELL             81  65  81  57  79 /  80  60  20  10   5
CORSICANA           82  66  83  60  80 /  70  60  20  10   5
TEMPLE              81  64  83  60  81 /  70  50  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS       81  58  79  54  75 /  50  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/05




000
FXUS64 KSJT 291713
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1213 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Skies are clearing from the west early this afternoon as a dryline
and Pacific cold front push east through the area. Winds will
turn from south to west/southwest and become gusty. Expect
clearing skies through the afternoon with VFR conditions from
early afternoon through the overnight hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 733 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low clouds are having trouble remaining continuous across the
area this morning, but will start most sites at MVFR this morning.
We may see a few thunderstorms move across area sites during the
morning to early afternoon hours. Between late morning and early
afternoon, skies will clear as a Pacific cold front/drlyine sweeps
east through the area today. Winds will turn from south/southeast
to west/southwest and gusty. Expect clearing skies from mid
morning through the afternoon with VFR conditions from late this
morning into the overnight hours. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper low currently over the Four Corners region will move east
across southern Colorado today and into Kansas by this evening.
This will force the Pacific front/dryline east across our area
today, with a cold front dropping south across the northern half
of the CWA tonight. Convergence along the front, combined with an
increase in large-scale ascent will result in scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing to our west by daybreak, with
activity moving east across the area this morning. Far southeast
counties will likely see convection linger through late afternoon
or early evening until the Pacific front pushes off to the east.
While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few storms may
become strong to severe today, especially east of a Brownwood to
Junction line this afternoon. The main hazards will be damaging
winds and large hail.

Gusty southwest winds will develop in wake of the Pacific front
today, with strongest winds expected across the western Big
Country and Concho Valley, where sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with
gusts to 35 mph are expected. Skies will be partly to mostly
cloudy early this morning, with clearing skies from west to east
during the day. Highs today will be in the lower to middle 80s,
with lows tonight in the lower and middle 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Another warm day is in store for Saturday across West Central
Texas. A cold front is forecast to make it into the Big Country
before becoming stationary. Highs will range from the mid to upper
70s across much of the Big Country, to the mid to upper 80s across
much of the rest of the forecast area. On Sunday, a cold front
will move through all the area, resulting in northeast winds of 10
to 15 mph. Increased cloud cover combined with the expected cold
air advection should result in high temperatures mainly in the
70s.

An upper level trough is forecast to swing across the Southern
Plains Monday into Tuesday, resulting in increased rain chances
for West Central Texas. Abundant cloud cover and expected showers
and thunderstorms on Monday should help to keep temperatures well
below seasonal normals. Highs will mainly be in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. Rain chances will decrease Monday night, with the best
PoPs shifting east of the forecast area.

A slow warming trend is then expected, with highs on Tuesday back
into the 70s, and into the 80s by Thursday. No rain is forecast
for the middle to latter part of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  79  52  73 /  10   5   5  10
San Angelo  53  86  55  75 /  10   5   5  10
Junction  55  88  58  81 /  20  10   5  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99




000
FXUS64 KSJT 291713
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1213 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Skies are clearing from the west early this afternoon as a dryline
and Pacific cold front push east through the area. Winds will
turn from south to west/southwest and become gusty. Expect
clearing skies through the afternoon with VFR conditions from
early afternoon through the overnight hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 733 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low clouds are having trouble remaining continuous across the
area this morning, but will start most sites at MVFR this morning.
We may see a few thunderstorms move across area sites during the
morning to early afternoon hours. Between late morning and early
afternoon, skies will clear as a Pacific cold front/drlyine sweeps
east through the area today. Winds will turn from south/southeast
to west/southwest and gusty. Expect clearing skies from mid
morning through the afternoon with VFR conditions from late this
morning into the overnight hours. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper low currently over the Four Corners region will move east
across southern Colorado today and into Kansas by this evening.
This will force the Pacific front/dryline east across our area
today, with a cold front dropping south across the northern half
of the CWA tonight. Convergence along the front, combined with an
increase in large-scale ascent will result in scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing to our west by daybreak, with
activity moving east across the area this morning. Far southeast
counties will likely see convection linger through late afternoon
or early evening until the Pacific front pushes off to the east.
While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few storms may
become strong to severe today, especially east of a Brownwood to
Junction line this afternoon. The main hazards will be damaging
winds and large hail.

Gusty southwest winds will develop in wake of the Pacific front
today, with strongest winds expected across the western Big
Country and Concho Valley, where sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with
gusts to 35 mph are expected. Skies will be partly to mostly
cloudy early this morning, with clearing skies from west to east
during the day. Highs today will be in the lower to middle 80s,
with lows tonight in the lower and middle 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Another warm day is in store for Saturday across West Central
Texas. A cold front is forecast to make it into the Big Country
before becoming stationary. Highs will range from the mid to upper
70s across much of the Big Country, to the mid to upper 80s across
much of the rest of the forecast area. On Sunday, a cold front
will move through all the area, resulting in northeast winds of 10
to 15 mph. Increased cloud cover combined with the expected cold
air advection should result in high temperatures mainly in the
70s.

An upper level trough is forecast to swing across the Southern
Plains Monday into Tuesday, resulting in increased rain chances
for West Central Texas. Abundant cloud cover and expected showers
and thunderstorms on Monday should help to keep temperatures well
below seasonal normals. Highs will mainly be in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. Rain chances will decrease Monday night, with the best
PoPs shifting east of the forecast area.

A slow warming trend is then expected, with highs on Tuesday back
into the 70s, and into the 80s by Thursday. No rain is forecast
for the middle to latter part of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  53  79  52  73 /  10   5   5  10
San Angelo  53  86  55  75 /  10   5   5  10
Junction  55  88  58  81 /  20  10   5  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99




000
FXUS64 KLUB 291708
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO KLBB AND KPVW.
MEANWHILE...KCDS WILL REMAIN WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE FA. AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO RESIDE THERE BUT THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE ACTIVELY
ATTEMPTING TO SQUASH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
09Z OBS INDICATE DRYLINE HOLDING POSITION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SACREMENTOS.
CI HAS BEGUN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING PARMER COUNTY. AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 9Z-12Z...DRIER AIR TO THE WEST
MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY NOON. THETA E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO SW OK WILL
RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

DRY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON...COMPRESSIONAL WINDS WILL INCH FRIDAYS HIGHS TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES DESPITE EARLY CLOUD
COVER. OFF THE CAPROCK TO THE EAST WILL SEE MORE SUN AND WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE TX/NM BORDER WITH POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE I20 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL EASE
AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR THE FCST AREA WILL EJECT FROM SRN
CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OPENING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A JET STREAK FROM NRN
NEW MEXICO TO THE OZARKS. THE FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHILE IN THE MID-LEVELS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL DEVELOP OVER A VERY COOL AIR MASS /AN AIR MASS THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/. THAT COMBINATION WILL
BRING ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS NW FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A TROUGH IN THAT NW FLOW COULD BRING SOME
STORMS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE NWRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES LOOK NICE AND COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH PRIMARILY 60S SUNDAY AND 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY. A RECOVERY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME MID TO LATE WEEK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS EDGES EWD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01




000
FXUS64 KLUB 291708
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO KLBB AND KPVW.
MEANWHILE...KCDS WILL REMAIN WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE FA. AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO RESIDE THERE BUT THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE ACTIVELY
ATTEMPTING TO SQUASH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
09Z OBS INDICATE DRYLINE HOLDING POSITION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SACREMENTOS.
CI HAS BEGUN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING PARMER COUNTY. AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 9Z-12Z...DRIER AIR TO THE WEST
MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY NOON. THETA E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO SW OK WILL
RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

DRY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON...COMPRESSIONAL WINDS WILL INCH FRIDAYS HIGHS TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES DESPITE EARLY CLOUD
COVER. OFF THE CAPROCK TO THE EAST WILL SEE MORE SUN AND WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE TX/NM BORDER WITH POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE I20 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL EASE
AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR THE FCST AREA WILL EJECT FROM SRN
CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OPENING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A JET STREAK FROM NRN
NEW MEXICO TO THE OZARKS. THE FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHILE IN THE MID-LEVELS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL DEVELOP OVER A VERY COOL AIR MASS /AN AIR MASS THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/. THAT COMBINATION WILL
BRING ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS NW FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A TROUGH IN THAT NW FLOW COULD BRING SOME
STORMS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE NWRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES LOOK NICE AND COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH PRIMARILY 60S SUNDAY AND 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY. A RECOVERY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME MID TO LATE WEEK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS EDGES EWD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01




000
FXUS64 KAMA 291658 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1158 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DOWN IN THE IFR OR MVFR RANGE FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...DHT AND AMA MAY SEE CIGS RAISE INTO THE VFR RANGE
THIS EVENING...BUT WE THINK THAT THE CIGS WILL COME BACK DOWN AGAIN
INTO THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN CLEAR
OUT OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES WHICH COULD LOWER
VISIBILITIES BELOW 5 MILES. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BECOME MORE NORTH OR NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A VORT LOBE CONNECTED TO A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED FROM WESTERN MONTANA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY TO FORM OFF OF THE CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY MAY TRY TO MOVE
TOWARD THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT WE MAY
BE FAIRLY STABLE AND ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT TRY TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR AREA WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THIS WAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TODAY TO AROUND 02Z TO 05Z
SATURDAY. VLIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THE
CONVECTION TODAY WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BY 22Z
TODAY TO 01Z SATURDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z TODAY AND 00Z SATURDAY...AND 02Z TO 08Z
SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE OR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH TODAY AS
A SURFACE LOW...LOCATED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...TRACKS EASTWARD.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
BRISK UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE ECMWF AND NAM MOS GUIDANCES FORECASTING MAX TEMP NEAR 60 FOR
AMARILLO WHICH COULD BE CLOSER TO REALITY. WENT ABOUT A CATEGORY
ABOVE THE COOLEST GUIDANCE FOR NOW. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP ENDED BY 06Z
SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES BY LATE SATURDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY AND THE PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SCHNEIDER

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  37  65  37  59 /  50  10   5  10  30
BEAVER OK                  54  39  63  39  59 /  90  30   5  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              49  34  58  34  52 /  90  20  10  20  40
BORGER TX                  62  40  66  39  61 /  70  10   5  10  30
BOYS RANCH TX              63  37  65  38  59 /  50  10  10  20  40
CANYON TX                  68  37  67  39  60 /  40   5   5  10  30
CLARENDON TX               72  42  69  41  63 /  50  10   5   5  20
DALHART TX                 57  36  61  36  55 /  70  20  10  20  40
GUYMON OK                  52  38  61  36  56 /  90  20   5  20  30
HEREFORD TX                68  37  68  38  59 /  30   5  20  20  40
LIPSCOMB TX                58  41  65  41  61 /  80  30   5   5  20
PAMPA TX                   62  38  64  37  60 /  70  10   5  10  30
SHAMROCK TX                70  44  69  43  64 /  70  10   5   5  20
WELLINGTON TX              75  45  72  45  66 /  60  10   5   5  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/16




000
FXUS64 KCRP 291621
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1121 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD ACRS THE CWFA THIS MORNING WITH SOME
CLEARING BEGINNING TO SPREAD INLAND OFF THE GULF. THIS HAS HELD
TEMPS BACK SEVERAL DEGREES AND HV MADE ACRS THE BOARD
ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT. HAVEN`T
BACKED HIGHS OFF TOO MUCH THOUGH AS WE ARE STARTING TO SEE BREAKS
INLAND AND THERE ARE A LOT OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL HEATING LEFT.

12Z CRP SOUNDING WAS CAPPED BUT POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE.
BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE CAP TO BREAK LOOKS TO BE OVER FAR NORTHERN
SECTIONS WHERE THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK. ANYWHERE THE CAP BREAKS
THOUGH STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EXPLOSIVE WITH CAPES NEAR 5000
J/KG AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR. WE`LL BE RELEASING A SPECIAL
18Z SOUNDING TO ASSESS THE STATE OF THE CAP AS WELL AS TO CAPTURE
THE 60+ KNOT FLOW THAT HAS PERSISTED THIS MORNING A FEW THOUSAND
FEET UP. NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN TERMS OF POPS OR STORM
POTENTIAL WITH THE UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS INCREASED TO 35-40 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER WEST TEXAS. LOW CLOUD/FOG SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
STRATUS COVERING ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR
WITH IFR CEILINGS OVER THE COASTAL BEND...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
FOG/HAZE. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO 1500-2500 FEET BY 15-16Z WITH
WINDS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT
BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN IN THE EVENING AND LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO NORTHERN COASTAL BEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTEROON WITH A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT. AS A 25H JET STREAK OF 110 KNOTS SWINGS TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...AN ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MAY
PROVIDE SOME ASSISTANCE FOR LIFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO WEAKEN THE
STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 2500-3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL
BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 40-45 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR DRYLINE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC HAS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN THESE
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOUTHERN COUNTIES WERE NOT
INCLUDED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO STRONGER CAP. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY BUT THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS SATURDAY.

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO INCREASE DURING
THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN 35-40 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING
THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE...BUOY 42002
200 NM EAST OF BROWNSVILLE HAS SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 KNOTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SEAS WITH HIGHER SEAS
REACHING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DELAYED ONSET
OF SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 11Z AND INITIATED SCA FOR
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AT 17Z. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TIDES...WAVE WATCH THREE MODEL SHOWS THE STRONGER WINDS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SWELLS
THAT WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY. WW3 SHOWS
SWELLS OF 7 TO 8 FEET WITH PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS TODAY. TIDE
LEVELS ARE AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE EXPECTED. WITH THESE HIGHER SWELLS
MOVING INTO TODAY...EXPECT TIDE LEVELS WILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEED 2 FEET MSL AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY. EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL SATURDAY
ALONG WITH THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR GULF FACING BEACHES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEAR SFC FLOW BECOMING NEARLY DUE
EASTERLY AS A SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. APPROACH OF A
H5 S/W TROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NE CWA WHERE
MOISTURE DEPTH IS PROG TO BE THE GREATEST. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SUNDAY GIVEN WARM H8 TO H7 THERMAL LAYER WHICH MAY SERVE AS
A LIMITING FACTOR. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ARE PROG TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
CWA. COMBINATION OF THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN ADDITIONAL AND
STRONGER H5 S/W TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION...H25 JET
OVERHEAD...AND HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES /PWATS PROG TO RANGE
FROM 1.6 INCHES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS TO VICTORIA AREA. GIVEN EXPECTED SYNOPTIC
SETUP...SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE
DAY.  SFC FRONT IS PROG TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST AT THAT TIME. ECMWF AND
CMC ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH FROPA AND STRONGER WITH POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER AND DRIER FORECAST
SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK AND AM THEREFORE EXPECTING PLEASANT EARLY
MAY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...CLEARING SKIES...MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES...AND BELOW
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

OF NOTE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SWELL
PERIODS MAY CONTINUE A COASTAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT RIP CURRENT
THREAT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    87  76  88  75  88  /  30  30  40  10  20
VICTORIA          84  74  87  73  84  /  40  60  60  10  30
LAREDO            96  74  98  73  94  /  20  20  20  10  20
ALICE             91  74  92  74  88  /  30  30  40  10  20
ROCKPORT          85  76  86  76  87  /  30  40  50  10  20
COTULLA           92  71  94  72  89  /  30  30  20  10  20
KINGSVILLE        89  76  91  75  89  /  20  20  40  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       85  76  84  76  87  /  30  30  40  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     OCONNOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TJ/70...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291547
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1047 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE. CAP STILL HOLDING AS OF 10 AM BUT STORMS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. CU DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY BE THE PRECURSOR TO THIS AREA OF
DEVELOPMENT EVENTUALLY WORKING BACK DOWN INTO THE CWA AS CAP
ERODES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE LOWERING OF POPS
SOUTH WHERE STRONGLY CAPPED AND ADDED HAZY. ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE
DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON AND WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
ABUNDANT INSTABILITY (AWAY FROM THE CAP) WILL HAVE THREATS RANGING
FROM TORNADO-WIND-HAIL THREAT IN THE WEST TO HAIL-WIND IN THE
NORTHWEST. THIS EVENING THIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA AND FOR WHAT
IT IS WORTH THE 12Z NAM PAINTS A GRUESOME PICTURE OF A DANGEROUS
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS AREAS FROM COLUMBUS TO HUNTSVILLE
NORTHWARD. VERY HIGH LOCALIZED HELICITY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH
INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT STILL HIGH AND LATEST HRRR/NAM
INDICATING THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. RAISED POPS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FOR THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY:
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL MORNING ANTICIPATED. AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE (PW`S 2-2.2") SITUATED IN THE SW GULF WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY UP THE COAST AND INTO SE TX DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THERE`S PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS BEING INITIATED ALONG
DRYLINE IN CNTL TEXAS AND MAKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD INTO SE TX
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY & SHEAR BY THAT TIME FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TO BE A
THREAT (HAIL, WIND, ISO TORNADOES ALL A POSSIBILITY). FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE CELLS.
THE MORE FAVORED LOCATION FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO GENERALLY
BE NORTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 59.

THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING:
THIS IS WHERE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE ON HOW
THINGS WILL EVOLVE. BEST CASE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THE
LINE/COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING ESE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIP IN
ITS WAKE. WORST CASE SCENARIO...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER...IS FOR THE THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED PORTION OF THE
LINE OF STORMS TO RACE EASTWARD LEAVING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE LINE BEHIND AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTATION SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT`LL
BECOME SITUATED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVEMENT
COULD SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVERHEAD INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED MODERATE INFLOW
FEEDING PERPENDICULAR TO SUCH A BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT FF THREAT WHEREVER SUCH A BOUNDARY ENDS UP.
AGAIN...THAT WOULD BE A WORST CASE SITUATION. ANYTHING IN BETWEEN
IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY TIMES THESE EVENTS PLAY OUT ON
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAN WHAT MODELS DEPICT...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION ISN`T VERY HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. BOTTOM LINE IS GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS. EVEN 35-50 MPH WINDS WILL BE A RISK OF DOWNING
TREES. STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
QUICK RUNOFF WILL PRODUCE A FF THREAT. WILL LEAVE FF WATCH AS/IS.

REST OF SATURDAY & SUNDAY:
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT WHERE POTENTIAL BOUNDARIES ARE SITUATED & WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT EVOLVES TONIGHT. A COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
PUSHING INTO SE TX LATE SATURDAY. SUSPECT EVEN IF THERE IS A BREAK
IN THE ACTION DURING THE DAY IT`LL RECOVER ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
SCT PRECIP TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT & SUNDAY.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY MORNING:
ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WESTERN TROF. EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING NEARBY AND PROBABLY SERVE AS A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE
UNNEEDED HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY:
THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVERHEAD. 47

MARINE...
GENERALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WINDS SET TO INCREASE
BY TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING EAST AND HELPS TO DRAW DIS-
TURBANCES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. HAVE KEPT CAUTION FLAGS POS-
TED IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS) BY THIS EVENING.
WINDS/SEAS COULD BE FURTHER ELEVATED IN/NEAR SCT STORMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

HAVE ALSO HOISTED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR BEACHES/
INTERCOASTAL WATERWAY DOWN THE BRAZORIA COUNTY COASTLINE. ONSHORE
WINDS HAVE HELP TO PILE UP WATER ONTO ROADWAYS/LOW-LYING AREAS IN
THESE AREAS DURING HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 87
AND 124 CONNECTION NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. 41

AVIATION...
STRONG WAA HAS PRODUCED SOME WIDELY SCT -DZ/-RA OVER SE TX OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD SEE CIGS LIFT SOME THRU
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS AS THE DEEP ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST.
WE COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH VCSH...BUT INCREAS-
ED PCPN CHCS TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO LOWER CIGS. TIMING OF THE STORMS
TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE SO WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH VCTS WORDING
FOR NOW. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  72  83  69  83 /  70 100  60  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  73  82  70  84 /  40  80  70  50  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  76  80  74  80 /  30  50  60  60  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
     SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...
     WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KAMA 291501 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1001 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A VORT LOBE CONNECTED TO A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED FROM WESTERN MONTANA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRY TO FORM OFF OF THE CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY MAY TRY TO MOVE
TOWARD THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT WE BELIEVE THAT WE MAY
BE FAIRLY STABLE AND ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT TRY TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR AREA WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THIS WAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TODAY TO AROUND 02Z TO 05Z
SATURDAY. VLIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THE
CONVECTION TODAY WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BY 22Z
TODAY TO 01Z SATURDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z TODAY AND 00Z SATURDAY...AND 02Z TO 08Z
SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE OR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH TODAY AS
A SURFACE LOW...LOCATED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...TRACKS EASTWARD.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
BRISK UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE ECMWF AND NAM MOS GUIDANCES FORECASTING MAX TEMP NEAR 60 FOR
AMARILLO WHICH COULD BE CLOSER TO REALITY. WENT ABOUT A CATEGORY
ABOVE THE COOLEST GUIDANCE FOR NOW. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP ENDED BY 06Z
SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES BY LATE SATURDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY AND THE PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SCHNEIDER

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  37  65  37  59 /  50  10   5  10  30
BEAVER OK                  54  39  63  39  59 /  90  30   5  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              49  34  58  34  52 /  90  20  10  20  40
BORGER TX                  62  40  66  39  61 /  70  10   5  10  30
BOYS RANCH TX              63  37  65  38  59 /  50  10  10  20  40
CANYON TX                  68  37  67  39  60 /  40   5   5  10  30
CLARENDON TX               72  42  69  41  63 /  50  10   5   5  20
DALHART TX                 57  36  61  36  55 /  70  20  10  20  40
GUYMON OK                  52  38  61  36  56 /  90  20   5  20  30
HEREFORD TX                68  37  68  38  59 /  30   5  20  20  40
LIPSCOMB TX                58  41  65  41  61 /  80  30   5   5  20
PAMPA TX                   62  38  64  37  60 /  70  10   5  10  30
SHAMROCK TX                70  44  69  43  64 /  70  10   5   5  20
WELLINGTON TX              75  45  72  45  66 /  60  10   5   5  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/16




000
FXUS64 KLUB 291444 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
944 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE FA. AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO RESIDE THERE BUT THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE ACTIVELY
ATTEMPTING TO SQUASH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
09Z OBS INDICATE DRYLINE HOLDING POSITION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SACREMENTOS.
CI HAS BEGUN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING PARMER COUNTY. AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 9Z-12Z...DRIER AIR TO THE WEST
MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY NOON. THETA E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO SW OK WILL
RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

DRY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON...COMPRESSIONAL WINDS WILL INCH FRIDAYS HIGHS TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES DESPITE EARLY CLOUD
COVER. OFF THE CAPROCK TO THE EAST WILL SEE MORE SUN AND WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE TX/NM BORDER WITH POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE I20 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL EASE
AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR THE FCST AREA WILL EJECT FROM SRN
CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OPENING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A JET STREAK FROM NRN
NEW MEXICO TO THE OZARKS. THE FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHILE IN THE MID-LEVELS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL DEVELOP OVER A VERY COOL AIR MASS /AN AIR MASS THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/. THAT COMBINATION WILL
BRING ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS NW FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A TROUGH IN THAT NW FLOW COULD BRING SOME
STORMS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE NWRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES LOOK NICE AND COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH PRIMARILY 60S SUNDAY AND 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY. A RECOVERY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME MID TO LATE WEEK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS EDGES EWD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01




000
FXUS64 KSJT 291233
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
733 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low clouds are having trouble remaining continuous across the
area this morning, but will start most sites at MVFR this morning.
We may see a few thunderstorms move across area sites during the
morning to early afternoon hours. Between late morning and early
afternoon, skies will clear as a Pacific cold front/drlyine sweeps
east through the area today. Winds will turn from south/southeast
to west/southwest and gusty. Expect clearing skies from mid
morning through the afternoon with VFR conditions from late this
morning into the overnight hours. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper low currently over the Four Corners region will move east
across southern Colorado today and into Kansas by this evening.
This will force the Pacific front/dryline east across our area
today, with a cold front dropping south across the northern half
of the CWA tonight. Convergence along the front, combined with an
increase in large-scale ascent will result in scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing to our west by daybreak, with
activity moving east across the area this morning. Far southeast
counties will likely see convection linger through late afternoon
or early evening until the Pacific front pushes off to the east.
While widespread severe weather is not expected, a few storms may
become strong to severe today, especially east of a Brownwood to
Junction line this afternoon. The main hazards will be damaging
winds and large hail.

Gusty southwest winds will develop in wake of the Pacific front
today, with strongest winds expected across the western Big
Country and Concho Valley, where sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with
gusts to 35 mph are expected. Skies will be partly to mostly
cloudy early this morning, with clearing skies from west to east
during the day. Highs today will be in the lower to middle 80s,
with lows tonight in the lower and middle 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Another warm day is in store for Saturday across West Central
Texas. A cold front is forecast to make it into the Big Country
before becoming stationary. Highs will range from the mid to upper
70s across much of the Big Country, to the mid to upper 80s across
much of the rest of the forecast area. On Sunday, a cold front
will move through all the area, resulting in northeast winds of 10
to 15 mph. Increased cloud cover combined with the expected cold
air advection should result in high temperatures mainly in the
70s.

An upper level trough is forecast to swing across the Southern
Plains Monday into Tuesday, resulting in increased rain chances
for West Central Texas. Abundant cloud cover and expected showers
and thunderstorms on Monday should help to keep temperatures well
below seasonal normals. Highs will mainly be in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. Rain chances will decrease Monday night, with the best
PoPs shifting east of the forecast area.

A slow warming trend is then expected, with highs on Tuesday back
into the 70s, and into the 80s by Thursday. No rain is forecast
for the middle to latter part of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  53  79  53 /  30  10   5   5
San Angelo  87  53  86  56 /  30  10   5   5
Junction  85  55  88  58 /  40  20  10   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 291210 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
710 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

PRIMARY CONCERN...THUNDER/SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX...USHERING IN RICH GULF MOISTURE. AIDED BY A NOCTURNAL
LLJ...SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...IN AREAS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF METRO TAF
SITES. EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS ARE NOW IMPACTING THE ARKLATEX...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY AT TAF SITES THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTH...AND THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
IS STEADILY SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN. ADDITIONAL MOIST
ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL DROP CEILINGS BELOW FL010 AT TIMES...
AND THE VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BEFORE
THE LATE APRIL SUN WARMS THE SURFACE LAYER.

A CAP IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WHICH WILL INITIALLY PRECLUDE
SURFACE-BASED STORMS...BUT AS AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PROVIDES LIFT...THIS CAP SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE. IN
THE MEANTIME...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
UPDRAFTS BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS JUST WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS AT TAF SITES WILL BE FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WOULD BE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
NIGHTFALL...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...AND A SHIFT TO NORTH
FLOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WIND
SHIFT HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW
TAF.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WARM FRONT HAS
BEEN THE CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION THROUGH THE MORNING.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL END UP
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER. THIS WILL LEAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE MORNING AS LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING 4 CORNERS LOW INCREASES...STORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON AN EASTWARD
MOVING DRYLINE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A
GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUSTAIN TALL UPDRAFTS.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE WEST/NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA.

STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
END UP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME
SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL INTO EAST TEXAS.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET SATURDAY AND BRING AN
END TO ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ENERGY AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND
GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING
RAIN-FREE WEATHER TO ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    81  65  80  58  78 /  70  40  10   5   5
WACO                82  64  83  58  80 /  70  50  20  10   5
PARIS               78  65  78  57  79 /  80  70  30  10   5
DENTON              79  61  79  54  76 /  60  40  10   5   5
MCKINNEY            79  63  79  56  77 /  70  50  10  10   5
DALLAS              81  65  82  59  79 /  70  50  10  10   5
TERRELL             81  65  81  57  79 /  80  60  20  10   5
CORSICANA           82  66  83  60  80 /  70  60  20  10   5
TEMPLE              81  64  83  60  81 /  70  50  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS       81  58  79  54  75 /  50  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 291210 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
710 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

PRIMARY CONCERN...THUNDER/SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX...USHERING IN RICH GULF MOISTURE. AIDED BY A NOCTURNAL
LLJ...SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...IN AREAS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF METRO TAF
SITES. EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS ARE NOW IMPACTING THE ARKLATEX...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY AT TAF SITES THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTH...AND THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
IS STEADILY SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN. ADDITIONAL MOIST
ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL DROP CEILINGS BELOW FL010 AT TIMES...
AND THE VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BEFORE
THE LATE APRIL SUN WARMS THE SURFACE LAYER.

A CAP IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WHICH WILL INITIALLY PRECLUDE
SURFACE-BASED STORMS...BUT AS AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PROVIDES LIFT...THIS CAP SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE. IN
THE MEANTIME...A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
UPDRAFTS BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS JUST WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS AT TAF SITES WILL BE FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WOULD BE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
NIGHTFALL...AFTER WHICH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...AND A SHIFT TO NORTH
FLOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WIND
SHIFT HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW
TAF.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WARM FRONT HAS
BEEN THE CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION THROUGH THE MORNING.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL END UP
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER. THIS WILL LEAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE MORNING AS LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING 4 CORNERS LOW INCREASES...STORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON AN EASTWARD
MOVING DRYLINE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A
GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUSTAIN TALL UPDRAFTS.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE WEST/NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA.

STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
END UP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME
SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL INTO EAST TEXAS.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET SATURDAY AND BRING AN
END TO ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ENERGY AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND
GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING
RAIN-FREE WEATHER TO ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    81  65  80  58  78 /  70  40  10   5   5
WACO                82  64  83  58  80 /  70  50  20  10   5
PARIS               78  65  78  57  79 /  80  70  30  10   5
DENTON              79  61  79  54  76 /  60  40  10   5   5
MCKINNEY            79  63  79  56  77 /  70  50  10  10   5
DALLAS              81  65  82  59  79 /  70  50  10  10   5
TERRELL             81  65  81  57  79 /  80  60  20  10   5
CORSICANA           82  66  83  60  80 /  70  60  20  10   5
TEMPLE              81  64  83  60  81 /  70  50  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS       81  58  79  54  75 /  50  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/79




000
FXUS64 KLUB 291151
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
651 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR WITH LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
09Z OBS INDICATE DRYLINE HOLDING POSITION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SACREMENTOS.
CI HAS BEGUN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING PARMER COUNTY. AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 9Z-12Z...DRIER AIR TO THE WEST
MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY NOON. THETA E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO SW OK WILL
RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

DRY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON...COMPRESSIONAL WINDS WILL INCH FRIDAYS HIGHS TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES DESPITE EARLY CLOUD
COVER. OFF THE CAPROCK TO THE EAST WILL SEE MORE SUN AND WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE TX/NM BORDER WITH POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE I20 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL EASE
AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR THE FCST AREA WILL EJECT FROM SRN
CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OPENING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A JET STREAK FROM NRN
NEW MEXICO TO THE OZARKS. THE FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHILE IN THE MID-LEVELS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL DEVELOP OVER A VERY COOL AIR MASS /AN AIR MASS THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/. THAT COMBINATION WILL
BRING ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS NW FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A TROUGH IN THAT NW FLOW COULD BRING SOME
STORMS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE NWRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES LOOK NICE AND COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH PRIMARILY 60S SUNDAY AND 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY. A RECOVERY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME MID TO LATE WEEK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS EDGES EWD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/55




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291137
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND 3-6 SM VISIBILITY IN HZ/BR
OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. EXCEPTION IS AT DRT
WHERE LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY OCCURRING ALONG WITH
PATCHY -DZ. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE BACK INTO MVFR AFTER 16Z AT
SAT/AUS/DRT...AND CLEARING AT DRT AROUND 18Z AS WEAK FRONT/DRY
LINE MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE AS WELL AS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR NOW THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED TSTMS THEN POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE DRY LINE...ACROSS THE EASTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. VCTS REMAINS IN
SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A LOW OVER UT AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS MADE THE FLOW OVER TEXAS
SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A DRYLINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT IN NM. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING THE DRYLINE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL HAVE
A HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH AND WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA INTO
SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE OF
2500-3000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
SUGGEST MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY EAST OF A LINE FROM LLANO TO KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL. EXPECT
STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STRUGGLES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST AND THIS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY
BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH TUESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  67  88  65  82 /  70  60  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  67  87  64  82 /  60  60  30  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  67  88  65  82 /  60  60  30  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  63  87  61  79 /  60  40  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  62  91  66  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  65  87  62  80 /  70  50  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  64  91  65  85 /  50  40  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  67  87  65  83 /  60  60  30  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  84  68  83 /  60  70  60  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  68  88  66  83 /  60  50  30  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  70  89  67  85 /  50  50  30  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291137
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND 3-6 SM VISIBILITY IN HZ/BR
OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. EXCEPTION IS AT DRT
WHERE LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY OCCURRING ALONG WITH
PATCHY -DZ. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE BACK INTO MVFR AFTER 16Z AT
SAT/AUS/DRT...AND CLEARING AT DRT AROUND 18Z AS WEAK FRONT/DRY
LINE MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE AS WELL AS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR NOW THROUGH 18Z. SCATTERED TSTMS THEN POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF THE DRY LINE...ACROSS THE EASTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. VCTS REMAINS IN
SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A LOW OVER UT AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS MADE THE FLOW OVER TEXAS
SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A DRYLINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT IN NM. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING THE DRYLINE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL HAVE
A HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH AND WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA INTO
SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE OF
2500-3000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
SUGGEST MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY EAST OF A LINE FROM LLANO TO KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL. EXPECT
STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STRUGGLES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST AND THIS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY
BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH TUESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  67  88  65  82 /  70  60  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  67  87  64  82 /  60  60  30  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  67  88  65  82 /  60  60  30  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  63  87  61  79 /  60  40  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  62  91  66  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  65  87  62  80 /  70  50  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  64  91  65  85 /  50  40  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  67  87  65  83 /  60  60  30  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  84  68  83 /  60  70  60  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  68  88  66  83 /  60  50  30  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  70  89  67  85 /  50  50  30  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KCRP 291133 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
633 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS INCREASED TO 35-40 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER WEST TEXAS. LOW CLOUD/FOG SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
STRATUS COVERING ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR
WITH IFR CEILINGS OVER THE COASTAL BEND...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
FOG/HAZE. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO 1500-2500 FEET BY 15-16Z WITH
WINDS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT
BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN IN THE EVENING AND LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO NORTHERN COASTAL BEND.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTEROON WITH A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT. AS A 25H JET STREAK OF 110 KNOTS SWINGS TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...AN ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MAY
PROVIDE SOME ASSISTANCE FOR LIFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO WEAKEN THE
STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 2500-3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL
BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 40-45 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR DRYLINE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC HAS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN THESE
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOUTHERN COUNTIES WERE NOT
INCLUDED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO STRONGER CAP. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY BUT THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS SATURDAY.

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO INCREASE DURING
THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN 35-40 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING
THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE...BUOY 42002
200 NM EAST OF BROWNSVILLE HAS SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 KNOTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SEAS WITH HIGHER SEAS
REACHING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DELAYED ONSET
OF SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 11Z AND INITIATED SCA FOR
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AT 17Z. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TIDES...WAVE WATCH THREE MODEL SHOWS THE STRONGER WINDS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SWELLS
THAT WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY. WW3 SHOWS
SWELLS OF 7 TO 8 FEET WITH PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS TODAY. TIDE
LEVELS ARE AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE EXPECTED. WITH THESE HIGHER SWELLS
MOVING INTO TODAY...EXPECT TIDE LEVELS WILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEED 2 FEET MSL AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY. EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL SATURDAY
ALONG WITH THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR GULF FACING BEACHES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEAR SFC FLOW BECOMING NEARLY DUE
EASTERLY AS A SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. APPROACH OF A
H5 S/W TROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NE CWA WHERE
MOISTURE DEPTH IS PROG TO BE THE GREATEST. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SUNDAY GIVEN WARM H8 TO H7 THERMAL LAYER WHICH MAY SERVE AS
A LIMITING FACTOR. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ARE PROG TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
CWA. COMBINATION OF THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN ADDITIONAL AND
STRONGER H5 S/W TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION...H25 JET
OVERHEAD...AND HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES /PWATS PROG TO RANGE
FROM 1.6 INCHES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS TO VICTORIA AREA. GIVEN EXPECTED SYNOPTIC
SETUP...SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE
DAY.  SFC FRONT IS PROG TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST AT THAT TIME. ECMWF AND
CMC ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH FROPA AND STRONGER WITH POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER AND DRIER FORECAST
SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK AND AM THEREFORE EXPECTING PLEASANT EARLY
MAY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...CLEARING SKIES...MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES...AND BELOW
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

OF NOTE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SWELL
PERIODS MAY CONTINUE A COASTAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT RIP CURRENT
THREAT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  76  88  75  88  /  30  30  40  10  20
VICTORIA          85  74  87  73  84  /  40  60  60  10  30
LAREDO            97  74  98  73  94  /  20  20  20  10  20
ALICE             92  74  92  74  88  /  30  30  40  10  20
ROCKPORT          86  76  86  76  87  /  30  40  50  10  20
COTULLA           93  71  94  72  89  /  30  30  20  10  20
KINGSVILLE        90  76  91  75  89  /  20  20  40  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       86  76  84  76  87  /  30  30  40  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 291133 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
633 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS INCREASED TO 35-40 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER WEST TEXAS. LOW CLOUD/FOG SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
STRATUS COVERING ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR
WITH IFR CEILINGS OVER THE COASTAL BEND...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
FOG/HAZE. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO 1500-2500 FEET BY 15-16Z WITH
WINDS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT
BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS WILL RETURN IN THE EVENING AND LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO NORTHERN COASTAL BEND.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTEROON WITH A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT. AS A 25H JET STREAK OF 110 KNOTS SWINGS TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...AN ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MAY
PROVIDE SOME ASSISTANCE FOR LIFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO WEAKEN THE
STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 2500-3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL
BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 40-45 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR DRYLINE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC HAS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN THESE
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOUTHERN COUNTIES WERE NOT
INCLUDED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO STRONGER CAP. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY BUT THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS SATURDAY.

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO INCREASE DURING
THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN 35-40 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING
THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE...BUOY 42002
200 NM EAST OF BROWNSVILLE HAS SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 KNOTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SEAS WITH HIGHER SEAS
REACHING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DELAYED ONSET
OF SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 11Z AND INITIATED SCA FOR
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AT 17Z. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

TIDES...WAVE WATCH THREE MODEL SHOWS THE STRONGER WINDS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SWELLS
THAT WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY. WW3 SHOWS
SWELLS OF 7 TO 8 FEET WITH PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS TODAY. TIDE
LEVELS ARE AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE EXPECTED. WITH THESE HIGHER SWELLS
MOVING INTO TODAY...EXPECT TIDE LEVELS WILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEED 2 FEET MSL AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY. EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL SATURDAY
ALONG WITH THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR GULF FACING BEACHES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEAR SFC FLOW BECOMING NEARLY DUE
EASTERLY AS A SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. APPROACH OF A
H5 S/W TROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NE CWA WHERE
MOISTURE DEPTH IS PROG TO BE THE GREATEST. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SUNDAY GIVEN WARM H8 TO H7 THERMAL LAYER WHICH MAY SERVE AS
A LIMITING FACTOR. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ARE PROG TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
CWA. COMBINATION OF THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN ADDITIONAL AND
STRONGER H5 S/W TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION...H25 JET
OVERHEAD...AND HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES /PWATS PROG TO RANGE
FROM 1.6 INCHES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS TO VICTORIA AREA. GIVEN EXPECTED SYNOPTIC
SETUP...SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE
DAY.  SFC FRONT IS PROG TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST AT THAT TIME. ECMWF AND
CMC ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH FROPA AND STRONGER WITH POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER AND DRIER FORECAST
SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK AND AM THEREFORE EXPECTING PLEASANT EARLY
MAY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...CLEARING SKIES...MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES...AND BELOW
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

OF NOTE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SWELL
PERIODS MAY CONTINUE A COASTAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT RIP CURRENT
THREAT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  76  88  75  88  /  30  30  40  10  20
VICTORIA          85  74  87  73  84  /  40  60  60  10  30
LAREDO            97  74  98  73  94  /  20  20  20  10  20
ALICE             92  74  92  74  88  /  30  30  40  10  20
ROCKPORT          86  76  86  76  87  /  30  40  50  10  20
COTULLA           93  71  94  72  89  /  30  30  20  10  20
KINGSVILLE        90  76  91  75  89  /  20  20  40  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       86  76  84  76  87  /  30  30  40  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KMAF 291129
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Despite HOB showing a visibility of around 3SM at TAF issuance
time, VIS should improve very shortly with increasing southwest
and west winds this morning and will begin the TAF with VFR
conditions. All other TAF sites have already showed an improvement
in visibility and should stay VFR through the next 24 hours.
Southwest winds will become more westerly and gust to 30 to 35 kts
this afternoon diminishing after sunset.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A potent upper level low pressure system across the Four Corners
Region will move east onto the western High Plains by late this
afternoon. As this occurs westerly flow through the column will
rapidly push drier air east of the area this morning. Will include a
pre first period slight chance for thunderstorms across mainly the
Permian Basin as the dryline surges east. By mid morning windy
conditions are expected areawide due to a decent surface pressure
gradient and deep mixing developing. Decided to issue a Wind
Advisory for much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for today.
Think the mos guidance is underestimating winds based on surface
gradient progged and contributions of stronger winds aloft. Will
continue the High Wind Warning today into this evening for the
Guadalupe Mountains. Went above guidance on high temperatures today
due to strong downslope and clearing skies.

The upper low is forecast to lift slowly northeast into the central
Plains and weaken tonight through Saturday night. This will allow
winds to decrease significantly with mostly clear skies continuing
with near normal temperatures.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday and Monday. Backing mid level flow along with
increasing large scale lift will draw low level moisture
northwestward from the Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will once
again be possible across much of the forecast area these days and
will be enhanced by isentropic lift behind a surface cold front and
surface easterly upslope flow behind the boundary. Behind the front
high temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be much below
normal aided by widespread cloudiness and precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
builds over the forecast area from the west.  There could be
isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out. Temperatures will
remain cool Tuesday and Wednesday and then climb to near normal
values by next Thursday and Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Southeast winds and abundant low level moisture are currently being
seen across the area this morning. An upper level trough will move
across the area today pushing a dryline east and bringing in much
drier air. This combined with gusty west winds will cause Red Flag
conditions from the western Permian Basin, west to the Guadalupe
Mountains. Critical fire weather conditions may be seen farther east
but this area was not included in the Red Flag Warning due to
abundant moisture in the fuels. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
along the dryline as it moves east creating the potential for some
lightning starts.

Saturday the dry air will remain across the area but lighter winds
will diminish the fire weather threat everywhere except the
Guadalupe Mountains. Breezy conditions will remain in the mountains
may create critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon and a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Moisture increases Sunday with
widespread rainfall possible which should end the fire weather
threat for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  50  80  52 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       82  49  82  50 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  59  90  62 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  86  54  86  56 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  49  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          78  46  77  47 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          77  39  77  44 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  53  84  54 /  10  10   0  10
Odessa                         85  55  83  54 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           87  51  86  54 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10




000
FXUS64 KAMA 291107
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
607 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TODAY TO AROUND 02Z TO 05Z
SATURDAY. VLIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THE
CONVECTION TODAY WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BY 22Z
TODAY TO 01Z SATURDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z TODAY AND 00Z SATURDAY...AND 02Z TO 08Z
SATURDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE OR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH TODAY AS
A SURFACE LOW...LOCATED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...TRACKS EASTWARD.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
BRISK UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE ECMWF AND NAM MOS GUIDANCES FORECASTING MAX TEMP NEAR 60 FOR
AMARILLO WHICH COULD BE CLOSER TO REALITY. WENT ABOUT A CATEGORY
ABOVE THE COOLEST GUIDANCE FOR NOW. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP ENDED BY 06Z
SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES BY LATE SATURDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY AND THE PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SCHNEIDER

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  37  65  37  59 /  50  10   5  10  30
BEAVER OK                  54  39  63  39  59 /  90  30   5  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              49  34  58  34  52 /  90  20  10  20  40
BORGER TX                  62  40  66  39  61 /  70  10   5  10  30
BOYS RANCH TX              63  37  65  38  59 /  50  10  10  20  40
CANYON TX                  68  37  67  39  60 /  40   5   5  10  30
CLARENDON TX               72  42  69  41  63 /  50  10   5   5  20
DALHART TX                 57  36  61  36  55 /  70  20  10  20  40
GUYMON OK                  52  38  61  36  56 /  90  20   5  20  30
HEREFORD TX                68  37  68  38  59 /  30   5  20  20  40
LIPSCOMB TX                58  41  65  41  61 /  80  30   5   5  20
PAMPA TX                   62  38  64  37  60 /  70  10   5  10  30
SHAMROCK TX                70  44  69  43  64 /  70  10   5   5  20
WELLINGTON TX              75  45  72  45  66 /  60  10   5   5  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

98/11




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291049 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
549 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS MAINTAINED THEMSELVES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE SURFACE WINDS KICKED UP
TO NEAR MODERATE LEVELS. WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL PRODUCE VFR
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH SUNSET. THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THIS WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
BRO CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO ENSURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH/OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...THE FRONT
INTRUDES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA UNDER A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THOSE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. ALSO...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACING THE ENTIRE BRO CWFA ON A GENERAL
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...A SERIES OF 500MB
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS WITH ONE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CERTAIN FEATURES EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ HAS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THE ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ROBUST RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...WILL HOLD SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 4 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SLOW APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL IMPROVE WINDS ON SATURDAY...
BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OFFSHORE DUE TO ROUGH SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES ON THE GULF
WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291049 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
549 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS MAINTAINED THEMSELVES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE SURFACE WINDS KICKED UP
TO NEAR MODERATE LEVELS. WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL PRODUCE VFR
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH SUNSET. THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THIS WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
BRO CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO ENSURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH/OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...THE FRONT
INTRUDES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA UNDER A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THOSE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. ALSO...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACING THE ENTIRE BRO CWFA ON A GENERAL
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...A SERIES OF 500MB
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS WITH ONE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CERTAIN FEATURES EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ HAS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THE ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ROBUST RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...WILL HOLD SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 4 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SLOW APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL IMPROVE WINDS ON SATURDAY...
BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OFFSHORE DUE TO ROUGH SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES ON THE GULF
WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 290957
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
357 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SWING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS MEANS MORE WIND FOR THE REGION
TODAY AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL KEEP DUST DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT
SOME. MOST OF THE REGION WILL STAY DRY...BUT A LITTLE MOISTURE IS
WORKING IN. THUS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY A BACKDOOR FRONT AND
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL LIKELY REDUCE THOSE CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT WEEKEND MAY BECOME UNSETTLED AS YET ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM DROPS IN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
W.O.W?..."WINDY OR WINDIER?". THAT IS THE QUESTION FOR TODAY`S
FORECAST. YET ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC STORMS SYSTEM IS PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THIS MEANS MORE WINDS. TODAY WILL BE
COOLER AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A PAC FRONT THROUGH AND TURNS WINDS
WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE DUST POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ELIMINATE
IT. DUST SHOULD STAY FAIRLY SOUTH OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ZONES. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY EAST...SAME OR
LOWER WEST. THINKING A WIND ADVISORY IS NECESSARY FOR LOWLANDS
EAST OF THE BOOTHEEL FOR TODAY...NOON TO 9PM. LAST THING FOR
TODAY...IS THE ARRIVAL OF A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THUS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOSTLY THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.

SATURDAY OUR AREA IS BETWEEN STORMS. A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALLOWS FOR WARMING WITH MODERATE AFTN BREEZES. STILL A BIT OF SW
MTN MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO MAYBE A STRAY BUILDUP OVER THE GILA.
SUNDAY THE NEXT PAC STORM IS OVER NW AZ AND BEGINNING TO LIFT NE
AND OPEN UP. THIS MEANS IT BYPASSES OUR REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT. HOWEVER WE WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A BACKDOOR FRONT FROM
THE NE THANKS TO SOUTHWARD DIVING SFC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS PUTS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER PROLONGED LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME
GULF MOISTURE INGEST WITH THE DRYLINE EBBING WEST AND EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY FOR THE ZONES
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THUS WE BEGIN TO INTRODUCE POPS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. THIS PATTERN SUGGEST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN LOWLANDS EACH DAY.

BEYOND TUE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO FORM WEST AND MOVE OVER
THE REGION BY WED/THU. THIS FEATURES WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RESULTING IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE FOR WED
AND THU.

FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST A
SOUTHWEST MOISTURE TAP TO MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. SO IT LOOKS LIKE WEATHER
COULD BECOME UNSETTLED FOR THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z-30/12Z. VFR COND EXPECTED ALL TERMS THRU PD.
HOWEVER PATCHY LOCAL BLOWING COULD IMPACT DMN...ELP...LRU FOR
BRIEF PDS FROM 18Z-02Z. W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN 15Z-
18Z TO 20-25G45KTS WITH PATCHY AREAS OF 3-5SM BLDU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
STARTING TO DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY WITH
MORE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...AND RH DROPPING RIGHT AROUND 14-18%
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OVER
HUDSPETH AND SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTIES. MAY ALSO SEE ISOLATED PM
MOUNTAIN STORMS AND SLIGHT RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING. AN UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE LOWLANDS BY WEDNESDAY
BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  54  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           74  49  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              70  47  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              72  47  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              48  34  54  36 /  10  20   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  44  75  49 /  10  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             63  40  71  42 /  10  10  10   0
DEMING                  72  44  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               71  43  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  53  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               75  47  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            77  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              69  49  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  76  50  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            73  50  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           70  44  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   72  45  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                74  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               71  50  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 58  39  63  39 /   0  20   0  10
MESCALERO               58  38  64  39 /  10  10   0  10
TIMBERON                57  39  63  40 /   0  20   0  10
WINSTON                 62  37  68  39 /  10  20  10   0
HILLSBORO               68  43  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               70  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  35  69  37 /  10  10  10   0
HURLEY                  65  41  73  42 /   0   0  10   0
CLIFF                   70  37  77  41 /  10  10  10   0
MULE CREEK              68  35  75  39 /  10  10  10   0
FAYWOOD                 67  42  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  73  45  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 72  44  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          74  45  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              71  44  77  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ403-407-410-411-413-417.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14-BIRD




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 290957
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
357 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SWING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS MEANS MORE WIND FOR THE REGION
TODAY AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL KEEP DUST DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT
SOME. MOST OF THE REGION WILL STAY DRY...BUT A LITTLE MOISTURE IS
WORKING IN. THUS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY A BACKDOOR FRONT AND
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL LIKELY REDUCE THOSE CHANCES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT WEEKEND MAY BECOME UNSETTLED AS YET ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM DROPS IN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
W.O.W?..."WINDY OR WINDIER?". THAT IS THE QUESTION FOR TODAY`S
FORECAST. YET ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC STORMS SYSTEM IS PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THIS MEANS MORE WINDS. TODAY WILL BE
COOLER AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A PAC FRONT THROUGH AND TURNS WINDS
WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE DUST POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ELIMINATE
IT. DUST SHOULD STAY FAIRLY SOUTH OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
ZONES. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY EAST...SAME OR
LOWER WEST. THINKING A WIND ADVISORY IS NECESSARY FOR LOWLANDS
EAST OF THE BOOTHEEL FOR TODAY...NOON TO 9PM. LAST THING FOR
TODAY...IS THE ARRIVAL OF A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THUS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOSTLY THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN AREAS.

SATURDAY OUR AREA IS BETWEEN STORMS. A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALLOWS FOR WARMING WITH MODERATE AFTN BREEZES. STILL A BIT OF SW
MTN MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO MAYBE A STRAY BUILDUP OVER THE GILA.
SUNDAY THE NEXT PAC STORM IS OVER NW AZ AND BEGINNING TO LIFT NE
AND OPEN UP. THIS MEANS IT BYPASSES OUR REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT. HOWEVER WE WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A BACKDOOR FRONT FROM
THE NE THANKS TO SOUTHWARD DIVING SFC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
PLAINS STATES. THIS PUTS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER PROLONGED LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME
GULF MOISTURE INGEST WITH THE DRYLINE EBBING WEST AND EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY FOR THE ZONES
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THUS WE BEGIN TO INTRODUCE POPS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. THIS PATTERN SUGGEST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN LOWLANDS EACH DAY.

BEYOND TUE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO FORM WEST AND MOVE OVER
THE REGION BY WED/THU. THIS FEATURES WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RESULTING IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE FOR WED
AND THU.

FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST A
SOUTHWEST MOISTURE TAP TO MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH
OF ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. SO IT LOOKS LIKE WEATHER
COULD BECOME UNSETTLED FOR THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z-30/12Z. VFR COND EXPECTED ALL TERMS THRU PD.
HOWEVER PATCHY LOCAL BLOWING COULD IMPACT DMN...ELP...LRU FOR
BRIEF PDS FROM 18Z-02Z. W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN 15Z-
18Z TO 20-25G45KTS WITH PATCHY AREAS OF 3-5SM BLDU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
STARTING TO DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY WITH
MORE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...AND RH DROPPING RIGHT AROUND 14-18%
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OVER
HUDSPETH AND SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTIES. MAY ALSO SEE ISOLATED PM
MOUNTAIN STORMS AND SLIGHT RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING. AN UPPER LOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MOUNTAINS AND AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER.
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE LOWLANDS BY WEDNESDAY
BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  54  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           74  49  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              70  47  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              72  47  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              48  34  54  36 /  10  20   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   69  44  75  49 /  10  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             63  40  71  42 /  10  10  10   0
DEMING                  72  44  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               71  43  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  53  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               75  47  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            77  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              69  49  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  76  50  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            73  50  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           70  44  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   72  45  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                74  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               71  50  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 58  39  63  39 /   0  20   0  10
MESCALERO               58  38  64  39 /  10  10   0  10
TIMBERON                57  39  63  40 /   0  20   0  10
WINSTON                 62  37  68  39 /  10  20  10   0
HILLSBORO               68  43  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               70  45  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  35  69  37 /  10  10  10   0
HURLEY                  65  41  73  42 /   0   0  10   0
CLIFF                   70  37  77  41 /  10  10  10   0
MULE CREEK              68  35  75  39 /  10  10  10   0
FAYWOOD                 67  42  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  73  45  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 72  44  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          74  45  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              71  44  77  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ403-407-410-411-413-417.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14-BIRD




000
FXUS64 KHGX 290939
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
439 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY:
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL MORNING ANTICIPATED. AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE (PW`S 2-2.2") SITUATED IN THE SW GULF WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY UP THE COAST AND INTO SE TX DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THERE`S PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS BEING INITIATED ALONG
DRYLINE IN CNTL TEXAS AND MAKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD INTO SE TX
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY & SHEAR BY THAT TIME FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TO BE A
THREAT (HAIL, WIND, ISO TORNADOES ALL A POSSIBILITY). FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE CELLS.
THE MORE FAVORED LOCATION FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO GENERALLY
BE NORTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 59.

THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING:
THIS IS WHERE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE ON HOW
THINGS WILL EVOLVE. BEST CASE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THE
LINE/COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING ESE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIP IN
ITS WAKE. WORST CASE SCENARIO...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER...IS FOR THE THE NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED PORTION OF THE
LINE OF STORMS TO RACE EASTWARD LEAVING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE LINE BEHIND AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE WEST-TO-EAST
ORIENTATION SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT`LL
BECOME SITUATED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVEMENT
COULD SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVERHEAD INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED MODERATE INFLOW
FEEDING PERPENDICULAR TO SUCH A BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT FF THREAT WHEREVER SUCH A BOUNDARY ENDS UP.
AGAIN...THAT WOULD BE A WORST CASE SITUATION. ANYTHING IN BETWEEN
IS POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY TIMES THESE EVENTS PLAY OUT ON
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS THAN WHAT MODELS DEPICT...SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION ISN`T VERY HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS. BOTTOM LINE IS GROUND IS NEARLY SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS. EVEN 35-50 MPH WINDS WILL BE A RISK OF DOWNING
TREES. STRONGER CELLS WILL ALSO PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
QUICK RUNOFF WILL PRODUCE A FF THREAT. WILL LEAVE FF WATCH AS/IS.

REST OF SATURDAY & SUNDAY:
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT WHERE POTENTIAL BOUNDARIES ARE SITUATED & WILL
HAVE TO SEE WHAT EVOLVES TONIGHT. A COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
PUSHING INTO SE TX LATE SATURDAY. SUSPECT EVEN IF THERE IS A BREAK
IN THE ACTION DURING THE DAY IT`LL RECOVER ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
SCT PRECIP TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT & SUNDAY.

MONDAY THRU TUESDAY MORNING:
ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WESTERN TROF. EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LINGERING NEARBY AND PROBABLY SERVE AS A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE
UNNEEDED HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY:
THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVERHEAD. 47

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WINDS SET TO INCREASE
BY TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING EAST AND HELPS TO DRAW DIS-
TURBANCES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. HAVE KEPT CAUTION FLAGS POS-
TED IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTN...AND SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS) BY THIS EVENING.
WINDS/SEAS COULD BE FURTHER ELEVATED IN/NEAR SCT STORMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

HAVE ALSO HOISTED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR BEACHES/
INTERCOASTAL WATERWAY DOWN THE BRAZORIA COUNTY COASTLINE. ONSHORE
WINDS HAVE HELP TO PILE UP WATER ONTO ROADWAYS/LOW-LYING AREAS IN
THESE AREAS DURING HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 87
AND 124 CONNECTION NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG WAA HAS PRODUCED SOME WIDELY SCT -DZ/-RA OVER SE TX OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD SEE CIGS LIFT SOME THRU
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS AS THE DEEP ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST.
WE COULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTN WITH VCSH...BUT INCREAS-
ED PCPN CHCS TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO LOWER CIGS. TIMING OF THE STORMS
TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE SO WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH VCTS WORDING
FOR NOW. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  72  83  69  83 /  70  80  60  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  73  82  70  84 /  50  70  70  50  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  76  80  74  80 /  30  50  60  60  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
     GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99




000
FXUS64 KLUB 290925
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
425 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
09Z OBS INDICATE DRYLINE HOLDING POSITION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SACREMENTOS.
CI HAS BEGUN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING PARMER COUNTY. AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 9Z-12Z...DRIER AIR TO THE WEST
MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY NOON. THETA E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO SW OK WILL
RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

DRY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON...COMPRESSIONAL WINDS WILL INCH FRIDAYS HIGHS TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES DESPITE EARLY CLOUD
COVER. OFF THE CAPROCK TO THE EAST WILL SEE MORE SUN AND WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE TX/NM BORDER WITH POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE I20 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL EASE
AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR THE FCST AREA WILL EJECT FROM SRN
CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OPENING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A JET STREAK FROM NRN
NEW MEXICO TO THE OZARKS. THE FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHILE IN THE MID-LEVELS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL DEVELOP OVER A VERY COOL AIR MASS /AN AIR MASS THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/. THAT COMBINATION WILL
BRING ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS NW FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A TROUGH IN THAT NW FLOW COULD BRING SOME
STORMS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE NWRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES LOOK NICE AND COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH PRIMARILY 60S SUNDAY AND 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY. A RECOVERY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME MID TO LATE WEEK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS EDGES EWD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/07




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290924
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
423 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THIS WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
BRO CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO ENSURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH/OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...THE FRONT
INTRUDES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA UNDER A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THOSE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. ALSO...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACING THE ENTIRE BRO CWFA ON A GENERAL
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...A SERIES OF 500MB
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS WITH ONE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CERTAIN FEATURES EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ HAS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THE ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ROBUST RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...WILL HOLD SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 4 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SLOW APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL IMPROVE WINDS ON SATURDAY...
BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OFFSHORE DUE TO ROUGH SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES ON THE GULF
WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  89  77  90  77 /   0   0  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          90  78  91  77 /   0   0  20  10
HARLINGEN            93  77  95  76 /   0   0  20  10
MCALLEN              96  77  97  77 /   0   0  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  76  98  75 /   0   0  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  77  84  77 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...65




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290923
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
423 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THIS WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
BRO CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO ENSURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH/OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...THE FRONT
INTRUDES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA UNDER A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THOSE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. ALSO...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACING THE ENTIRE BRO CWFA ON A GENERAL
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...A SERIES OF 500MB
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS WITH ONE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CERTAIN FEATURES EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK COLD LINGERS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ HAS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THE ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ROBUST RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...WILL HOLD SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 4 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SLOW APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL IMPROVE WINDS ON SATURDAY...
BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OFFSHORE DUE TO ROUGH SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES ON THE GULF
WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  89  77  90  77 /   0   0  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          90  78  91  77 /   0   0  20  10
HARLINGEN            93  77  95  76 /   0   0  20  10
MCALLEN              96  77  97  77 /   0   0  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  76  98  75 /   0   0  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  77  84  77 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...65




000
FXUS64 KCRP 290923
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
423 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTEROON WITH A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT. AS A 25H JET STREAK OF 110 KNOTS SWINGS TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...AN ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET MAY
PROVIDE SOME ASSISTANCE FOR LIFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO WEAKEN THE
STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 2500-3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL
BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 40-45 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR DRYLINE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC HAS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN THESE
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOUTHERN COUNTIES WERE NOT
INCLUDED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO STRONGER CAP. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY BUT THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR COULD LEAD TO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO INCREASE DURING
THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN 35-40 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING
THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE...BUOY 42002
200 NM EAST OF BROWNSVILLE HAS SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 KNOTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SEAS WITH HIGHER SEAS
REACHING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DELAYED ONSET
OF SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 11Z AND INITIATED SCA FOR
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AT 17Z. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.TIDES...WAVE WATCH THREE MODEL SHOWS THE STRONGER WINDS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SWELLS
THAT WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY. WW3 SHOWS
SWELLS OF 7 TO 8 FEET WITH PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS TODAY. TIDE
LEVELS ARE AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE EXPECTED. WITH THESE HIGHER SWELLS
MOVING INTO TODAY...EXPECT TIDE LEVELS WILL REACH OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEED 2 FEET MSL AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY. EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL SATURDAY
ALONG WITH THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR GULF FACING BEACHES.

&&


.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEAR SFC FLOW BECOMING NEARLY DUE
EASTERLY AS A SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. APPROACH OF A
H5 S/W TROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NE CWA WHERE
MOISTURE DEPTH IS PROG TO BE THE GREATEST. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...FOR NOW HAVE ONLY CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SUNDAY GIVEN WARM H8 TO H7 THERMAL LAYER WHICH MAY SERVE AS
A LIMITING FACTOR. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ARE PROG TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS SURFACE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
CWA. COMBINATION OF THE FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN ADDITIONAL AND
STRONGER H5 S/W TROUGH ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION...H25 JET
OVERHEAD...AND HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES /PWATS PROG TO RANGE
FROM 1.6 INCHES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS TO VICTORIA AREA. GIVEN EXPECTED SYNOPTIC
SETUP...SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE
DAY.  SFC FRONT IS PROG TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST AT THAT TIME. ECMWF AND
CMC ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH FROPA AND STRONGER WITH POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER AND DRIER FORECAST
SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK AND AM THEREFORE EXPECTING PLEASANT EARLY
MAY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...CLEARING SKIES...MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES...AND BELOW
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

OF NOTE...PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SWELL
PERIODS MAY CONTINUE A COASTAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT RIP CURRENT
THREAT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  76  88  75  88  /  30  30  40  10  20
VICTORIA          85  74  87  73  84  /  40  60  60  10  30
LAREDO            97  74  98  73  94  /  20  20  20  10  20
ALICE             92  74  92  74  88  /  30  30  40  10  20
ROCKPORT          86  76  86  76  87  /  30  40  50  10  20
COTULLA           93  71  94  72  89  /  30  30  20  10  20
KINGSVILLE        90  76  91  75  89  /  20  20  40  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       86  76  84  76  87  /  30  30  40  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KFWD 290907
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
407 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WARM FRONT HAS
BEEN THE CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION THROUGH THE MORNING.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL END UP
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER. THIS WILL LEAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE MORNING AS LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING 4 CORNERS LOW INCREASES...STORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON AN EASTWARD
MOVING DRYLINE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A
GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUSTAIN TALL UPDRAFTS.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE WEST/NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA.

STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
END UP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME
SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL INTO EAST TEXAS.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET SATURDAY AND BRING AN
END TO ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ENERGY AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND
GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING
RAIN-FREE WEATHER TO ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1137 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR VARIOUS IMPACTS WILL BE THE CONCERN FOR
THE NEXT 30 HOURS OR SO. AT 04Z...DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 70S
AND UPPER 60S FROM WACO TOT HE SOUTH...WHILE THEY WERE INT HE MID
50S IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FOR THE RIDE.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT THE WACO TERMINAL FOR THE
PAST TWO HOURS...WITH THE LIGHTNING DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...A FEW STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED CLOSE TO THE DFW
METROPLEX...AND THESE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
METROPLEX TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT...AND
WILL CARRY EITHER PREVAILING THUNDER OR VCTS FOR THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE A FEW HOURS OF RELATIVE
CALM...WITH ONLY MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS TO DEAL WITH...BEFORE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    81  65  80  58  78 /  70  40  10   5   5
WACO                82  64  83  58  80 /  70  50  20  10   5
PARIS               78  65  78  57  79 /  80  70  30  10   5
DENTON              79  61  79  54  76 /  60  40  10   5   5
MCKINNEY            79  63  79  56  77 /  70  50  10  10   5
DALLAS              81  65  82  59  79 /  70  50  10  10   5
TERRELL             81  65  81  57  79 /  80  60  20  10   5
CORSICANA           82  66  83  60  80 /  70  60  20  10   5
TEMPLE              81  64  83  60  81 /  70  50  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS       81  58  79  54  75 /  50  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 290907
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
407 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WARM FRONT HAS
BEEN THE CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION THROUGH THE MORNING.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL END UP
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER. THIS WILL LEAVE ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE MORNING AS LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING 4 CORNERS LOW INCREASES...STORMS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON AN EASTWARD
MOVING DRYLINE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A
GOOD POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUSTAIN TALL UPDRAFTS.
THEREFORE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TRIPLE POINT WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE WEST/NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA.

STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
END UP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME
SINCE THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL INTO EAST TEXAS.

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET SATURDAY AND BRING AN
END TO ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ENERGY AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND
GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

ONCE THE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING
RAIN-FREE WEATHER TO ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1137 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR VARIOUS IMPACTS WILL BE THE CONCERN FOR
THE NEXT 30 HOURS OR SO. AT 04Z...DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 70S
AND UPPER 60S FROM WACO TOT HE SOUTH...WHILE THEY WERE INT HE MID
50S IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FOR THE RIDE.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT THE WACO TERMINAL FOR THE
PAST TWO HOURS...WITH THE LIGHTNING DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...A FEW STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED CLOSE TO THE DFW
METROPLEX...AND THESE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
METROPLEX TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT...AND
WILL CARRY EITHER PREVAILING THUNDER OR VCTS FOR THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE A FEW HOURS OF RELATIVE
CALM...WITH ONLY MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS TO DEAL WITH...BEFORE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    81  65  80  58  78 /  70  40  10   5   5
WACO                82  64  83  58  80 /  70  50  20  10   5
PARIS               78  65  78  57  79 /  80  70  30  10   5
DENTON              79  61  79  54  76 /  60  40  10   5   5
MCKINNEY            79  63  79  56  77 /  70  50  10  10   5
DALLAS              81  65  82  59  79 /  70  50  10  10   5
TERRELL             81  65  81  57  79 /  80  60  20  10   5
CORSICANA           82  66  83  60  80 /  70  60  20  10   5
TEMPLE              81  64  83  60  81 /  70  50  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS       81  58  79  54  75 /  50  20   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/79




000
FXUS64 KMAF 290841
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
341 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A potent upper level low pressure system across the Four Corners
Region will move east onto the western High Plains by late this
afternoon. As this occurs westerly flow through the column will
rapidly push drier air east of the area this morning. Will include a
pre first period slight chance for thunderstorms across mainly the
Permian Basin as the dryline surges east. By mid morning windy
conditions are expected areawide due to a decent surface pressure
gradient and deep mixing developing. Decided to issue a Wind
Advisory for much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for today.
Think the mos guidance is underestimating winds based on surface
gradient progged and contributions of stronger winds aloft. Will
continue the High Wind Warning today into this evening for the
Guadalupe Mountains. Went above guidance on high temperatures today
due to strong downslope and clearing skies.

The upper low is forecast to lift slowly northeast into the central
Plains and weaken tonight through Saturday night. This will allow
winds to decrease significantly with mostly clear skies continuing
with near normal temperatures.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday and Monday. Backing mid level flow along with
increasing large scale lift will draw low level moisture
northwestward from the Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will once
again be possible across much of the forecast area these days and
will be enhanced by isentropic lift behind a surface cold front and
surface easterly upslope flow behind the boundary. Behind the front
high temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be much below
normal aided by widespread cloudiness and precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
builds over the forecast area from the west.  There could be
isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out. Temperatures will
remain cool Tuesday and Wednesday and then climb to near normal
values by next Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southeast winds and abundant low level moisture are currently being
seen across the area this morning. An upper level trough will move
across the area today pushing a dryline east and bringing in much
drier air. This combined with gusty west winds will cause Red Flag
conditions from the western Permian Basin, west to the Guadalupe
Mountains. Critical fire weather conditions may be seen farther east
but this area was not included in the Red Flag Warning due to
abundant moisture in the fuels. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
along the dryline as it moves east creating the potential for some
lightning starts.

Saturday the dry air will remain across the area but lighter winds
will diminish the fire weather threat everywhere except the
Guadalupe Mountains. Breezy conditions will remain in the mountains
may create critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon and a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Moisture increases Sunday with
widespread rainfall possible which should end the fire weather
threat for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  50  80  52 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       82  49  82  50 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  59  90  62 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  86  54  86  56 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  49  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          78  46  77  47 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          77  39  77  44 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  53  84  54 /  10  10   0  10
Odessa                         85  55  83  54 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           87  51  86  54 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

10/12




000
FXUS64 KMAF 290841
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
341 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A potent upper level low pressure system across the Four Corners
Region will move east onto the western High Plains by late this
afternoon. As this occurs westerly flow through the column will
rapidly push drier air east of the area this morning. Will include a
pre first period slight chance for thunderstorms across mainly the
Permian Basin as the dryline surges east. By mid morning windy
conditions are expected areawide due to a decent surface pressure
gradient and deep mixing developing. Decided to issue a Wind
Advisory for much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for today.
Think the mos guidance is underestimating winds based on surface
gradient progged and contributions of stronger winds aloft. Will
continue the High Wind Warning today into this evening for the
Guadalupe Mountains. Went above guidance on high temperatures today
due to strong downslope and clearing skies.

The upper low is forecast to lift slowly northeast into the central
Plains and weaken tonight through Saturday night. This will allow
winds to decrease significantly with mostly clear skies continuing
with near normal temperatures.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday and Monday. Backing mid level flow along with
increasing large scale lift will draw low level moisture
northwestward from the Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will once
again be possible across much of the forecast area these days and
will be enhanced by isentropic lift behind a surface cold front and
surface easterly upslope flow behind the boundary. Behind the front
high temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be much below
normal aided by widespread cloudiness and precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
builds over the forecast area from the west.  There could be
isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out. Temperatures will
remain cool Tuesday and Wednesday and then climb to near normal
values by next Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southeast winds and abundant low level moisture are currently being
seen across the area this morning. An upper level trough will move
across the area today pushing a dryline east and bringing in much
drier air. This combined with gusty west winds will cause Red Flag
conditions from the western Permian Basin, west to the Guadalupe
Mountains. Critical fire weather conditions may be seen farther east
but this area was not included in the Red Flag Warning due to
abundant moisture in the fuels. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
along the dryline as it moves east creating the potential for some
lightning starts.

Saturday the dry air will remain across the area but lighter winds
will diminish the fire weather threat everywhere except the
Guadalupe Mountains. Breezy conditions will remain in the mountains
may create critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon and a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Moisture increases Sunday with
widespread rainfall possible which should end the fire weather
threat for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  50  80  52 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       82  49  82  50 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  59  90  62 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  86  54  86  56 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  49  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          78  46  77  47 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          77  39  77  44 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  53  84  54 /  10  10   0  10
Odessa                         85  55  83  54 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           87  51  86  54 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

10/12




000
FXUS64 KSJT 290840
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
340 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper low currently over the Four Corners region will move east
across southern Colorado today and into Kansas by this evening. This
will force the Pacific front/dryline east across our area today,
with a cold front dropping south across the northern half of the CWA
tonight. Convergence along the front, combined with an increase in
large-scale ascent will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing to our west by daybreak, with activity
moving east across the area this morning. Far southeast counties
will likely see convection linger through late afternoon or early
evening until the Pacific front pushes off to the east. While
widespread severe weather is not expected, a few storms may become
strong to severe today, especially east of a Brownwood to Junction
line this afternoon. The main hazards will be damaging winds and
large hail.

Gusty southwest winds will develop in wake of the Pacific front
today, with strongest winds expected across the western Big Country
and Concho Valley, where sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to
35 mph are expected. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy early
this morning, with clearing skies from west to east during the day.
Highs today will be in the lower to middle 80s, with lows tonight
in the lower and middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Another warm day is in store for Saturday across West Central
Texas. A cold front is forecast to make it into the Big Country
before becoming stationary. Highs will range from the mid to upper
70s across much of the Big Country, to the mid to upper 80s across
much of the rest of the forecast area. On Sunday, a cold front will
move through all the area, resulting in northeast winds of 10 to 15
mph. Increased cloud cover combined with the expected cold air
advection should result in high temperatures mainly in the 70s.

An upper level trough is forecast to swing across the Southern
Plains Monday into Tuesday, resulting in increased rain chances for
West Central Texas. Abundant cloud cover and expected showers and
thunderstorms on Monday should help to keep temperatures well below
seasonal normals. Highs will mainly be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Rain chances will decrease Monday night, with the best PoPs shifting
east of the forecast area.

A slow warming trend is then expected, with highs on Tuesday back
into the 70s, and into the 80s by Thursday. No rain is forecast for
the middle to latter part of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  53  80  53 /  30  10   5   5
San Angelo  87  53  88  56 /  30  10   5   5
Junction  85  55  90  58 /  40  20  10   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

24/Daniels




000
FXUS64 KSJT 290840
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
340 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper low currently over the Four Corners region will move east
across southern Colorado today and into Kansas by this evening. This
will force the Pacific front/dryline east across our area today,
with a cold front dropping south across the northern half of the CWA
tonight. Convergence along the front, combined with an increase in
large-scale ascent will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing to our west by daybreak, with activity
moving east across the area this morning. Far southeast counties
will likely see convection linger through late afternoon or early
evening until the Pacific front pushes off to the east. While
widespread severe weather is not expected, a few storms may become
strong to severe today, especially east of a Brownwood to Junction
line this afternoon. The main hazards will be damaging winds and
large hail.

Gusty southwest winds will develop in wake of the Pacific front
today, with strongest winds expected across the western Big Country
and Concho Valley, where sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to
35 mph are expected. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy early
this morning, with clearing skies from west to east during the day.
Highs today will be in the lower to middle 80s, with lows tonight
in the lower and middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Another warm day is in store for Saturday across West Central
Texas. A cold front is forecast to make it into the Big Country
before becoming stationary. Highs will range from the mid to upper
70s across much of the Big Country, to the mid to upper 80s across
much of the rest of the forecast area. On Sunday, a cold front will
move through all the area, resulting in northeast winds of 10 to 15
mph. Increased cloud cover combined with the expected cold air
advection should result in high temperatures mainly in the 70s.

An upper level trough is forecast to swing across the Southern
Plains Monday into Tuesday, resulting in increased rain chances for
West Central Texas. Abundant cloud cover and expected showers and
thunderstorms on Monday should help to keep temperatures well below
seasonal normals. Highs will mainly be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Rain chances will decrease Monday night, with the best PoPs shifting
east of the forecast area.

A slow warming trend is then expected, with highs on Tuesday back
into the 70s, and into the 80s by Thursday. No rain is forecast for
the middle to latter part of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  53  80  53 /  30  10   5   5
San Angelo  87  53  88  56 /  30  10   5   5
Junction  85  55  90  58 /  40  20  10   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

24/Daniels




000
FXUS64 KEWX 290835
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A LOW OVER UT AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS MADE THE FLOW OVER TEXAS
SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE...THERE WAS A DRYLINE OVER WEST
TEXAS AND A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT IN NM. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING THE DRYLINE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO OUR CWA TODAY. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL HAVE
A HARD TIME MOVING THROUGH AND WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA INTO
SATURDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECTING STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE OF
2500-3000 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
SUGGEST MOST LIKELY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY EAST OF A LINE FROM LLANO TO KERRVILLE TO PEARSALL. EXPECT
STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE FRONT STRUGGLES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SATURDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST AND THIS
WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY
BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH TUESDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY BRINGING A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE END OF THIS FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  67  88  65  82 /  70  60  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  67  87  64  82 /  60  60  30  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  67  88  65  82 /  60  60  30  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  63  87  61  79 /  60  40  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  62  91  66  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  65  87  62  80 /  70  50  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  64  91  65  85 /  50  40  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  67  87  65  83 /  60  60  30  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  70  84  68  83 /  60  70  60  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  68  88  66  83 /  60  50  30  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  70  89  67  85 /  50  50  30  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KAMA 290834
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
334 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL TRACK EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE OR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH TODAY AS
A SURFACE LOW...LOCATED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...TRACKS EASTWARD.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
BRISK UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE ECMWF AND NAM MOS GUIDANCES FORECASTING MAX TEMP NEAR 60 FOR
AMARILLO WHICH COULD BE CLOSER TO REALITY. WENT ABOUT A CATEGORY
ABOVE THE COOLEST GUIDANCE FOR NOW. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP ENDED BY 06Z
SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES BY LATE SATURDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY AND THE PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  37  65  37  59 /  50  10   5  10  30
BEAVER OK                  54  39  63  39  59 /  90  30   5  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              49  34  58  34  52 /  90  20  10  20  40
BORGER TX                  62  40  66  39  61 /  70  10   5  10  30
BOYS RANCH TX              63  37  65  38  59 /  50  10  10  20  40
CANYON TX                  68  37  67  39  60 /  40   5   5  10  30
CLARENDON TX               72  42  69  41  63 /  50  10   5   5  20
DALHART TX                 57  36  61  36  55 /  70  20  10  20  40
GUYMON OK                  52  38  61  36  56 /  90  20   5  20  30
HEREFORD TX                68  37  68  38  59 /  30   5  20  20  40
LIPSCOMB TX                58  41  65  41  61 /  80  30   5   5  20
PAMPA TX                   62  38  64  37  60 /  70  10   5  10  30
SHAMROCK TX                70  44  69  43  64 /  70  10   5   5  20
WELLINGTON TX              75  45  72  45  66 /  60  10   5   5  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

98/11




000
FXUS64 KCRP 290553 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TO 25-35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER WEST TEXAS.
LOW CLOUD/FOG SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS STRATUS COVERING MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS WITH A FEW BREAKS. EXPECT CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR RANGE
OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
FOG/HAZE. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO 1500-2500 FEET BY 15-16Z WITH
WINDS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE MOVING INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT
THE VCT AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT TRENDS AND REMOVED
POPS FOR OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS WELL CAPPED. DID HOWEVER
LEAVE IN MENTION FOR LIGHT ISENTROPIC ACTIVITY FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO RAMP UP LATE IN
THE NIGHT. A MIXTURE OF HAZE AND FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH MOST VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 MILES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  86  72  85  73  /  10  40  10  20  20
VICTORIA          72  82  69  84  69  /  50  60  20  20  20
LAREDO            74  94  70  91  73  /  20  30  10  20  20
ALICE             75  89  71  88  72  /  20  40  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  82  73  83  74  /  20  50  20  20  20
COTULLA           71  91  68  88  70  /  30  30  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        76  89  72  87  74  /  10  40  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  82  74  82  74  /  10  40  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KEWX 290543
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1243 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...06Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO IFR OVERNIGHT...AND
POTENTIALLY LIFR IN SOME ISOLATED AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TAF
SITES INDICATED TO LOWER INTO IFR 06Z-09Z...AND THEN CLIMB BACK
INTO MVFR AFTER 16Z. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF HZ/BR COULD PRODUCE
4-6SM VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. ISOLATED
WEAK SHOWERS MAY TRY AND DEVELOP BENEATH THE CAP OVERNIGHT...THEN
EXPAND IN COVERAGE MID MORNING THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR. TSRA
INTRODUCED INTO SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT
DRT...DRY LINE/FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 16Z-18Z WITH
CLEARING BEHIND IT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  68  88  64  83 /  60  50  30  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  68  86  64  83 /  60  60  30  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  68  87  65  83 /  60  60  30  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  63  87  60  81 /  60  40  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  62  90  65  87 /  20  20  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  66  86  61  80 /  60  50  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  66  90  66  85 /  50  50  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  68  85  65  83 /  60  60  30  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  71  83  68  84 /  50  70  60  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  69  88  66  84 /  50  50  30  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  70  88  67  85 /  50  50  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KEWX 290543
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1243 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...06Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO IFR OVERNIGHT...AND
POTENTIALLY LIFR IN SOME ISOLATED AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TAF
SITES INDICATED TO LOWER INTO IFR 06Z-09Z...AND THEN CLIMB BACK
INTO MVFR AFTER 16Z. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF HZ/BR COULD PRODUCE
4-6SM VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. ISOLATED
WEAK SHOWERS MAY TRY AND DEVELOP BENEATH THE CAP OVERNIGHT...THEN
EXPAND IN COVERAGE MID MORNING THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR. TSRA
INTRODUCED INTO SAT/SSF/AUS TAFS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT
DRT...DRY LINE/FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 16Z-18Z WITH
CLEARING BEHIND IT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  68  88  64  83 /  60  50  30  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  68  86  64  83 /  60  60  30  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  68  87  65  83 /  60  60  30  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  63  87  60  81 /  60  40  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  62  90  65  87 /  20  20  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  66  86  61  80 /  60  50  20  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  66  90  66  85 /  50  50  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  68  85  65  83 /  60  60  30  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  71  83  68  84 /  50  70  60  30  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  69  88  66  84 /  50  50  30  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  70  88  67  85 /  50  50  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KAMA 290535 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1235 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
STRONG MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE IFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
WELL INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCASIONALLY DISRUPT STRATUS FIELD AND CAUSE VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS.  UNSURE OF HOW TRANSITION TO DRIER AIRMASS WILL TAKE
PLACE...BUT FOR NOW WILL FORECAST SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH CATEGORICAL
IMPROVEMENT OCCURRING SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTHEAST AND EAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN MOISTURE
SUPPLY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TERMINALS WILL BE
SPARED FROM STRONGEST CONVECTION IN THE NEAR TERM.  AS LOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY.  CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT CLEARING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT KDHT AND KAMA AS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH...WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN ITS WAKE.  KGUY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR OR MVFR THROUGH END OF FORECAST.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-27
CORRIDOR. EARLIER THINKING HAS CHANGED LITTLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT (1000-1500 MLCAPE ON MESOANALYSIS). EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT (50-55 KNOTS) FOR STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THIS THREAT
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THE
WINDOW FOR A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD MOST LIKELY BE BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 PM AND 10 PM WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND 0-1 KM
HELICITY INCREASES TO AROUND 150-200 M2/S2...BUT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. AFTERWARDS THE THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LASTING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS CONVECTION MOVES NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED.

A PEAK AT WHAT IS IN SO FAR FROM THE SPECIAL 21Z SOUNDING REVEALS
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1.5 KM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING ABOVE THIS YIELDING 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF AROUND
150 M2/S2. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN A SHALLOWER NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AS WELL AS
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND MARGINAL LCL HEIGHTS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE VWP AND MODIFY THE SOUNDING AS
SURFACE OBS CHANGE/MOISTURE INCREASES. ALSO NOTED IN THE FIRST
GLANCE OF THE SOUNDING IS THAT 100 MB ML PARCELS REMAINED SLIGHTLY
CAPPED. THIS CAN BE EASILY BE OVERCOME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTENING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL UPDATE WITH ANY PERTINENT
INFORMATION FROM THE COMPLETED 21Z SOUNDING AND/OR OTHER
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AS NECESSARY.

BRB

SHORT TERM...
SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FROM BRB.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER FRIDAY AND CONTINUE SLIDING EAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND PUT THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION...THUS
CAUSING SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. THE MID LEVELS WILL SEE DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND THUS ALLOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING AT THESE LEVELS FOR
STORMS THAT FORM. THIS WILL CREATE MORE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGER HAIL AS DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE COOLER AND SLOW MELTING. CONFIDENCE
ON THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS NOT VERY HIGH ON THIS OUTCOME AS THE
SCENARIO OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BEING SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE SEEMS JUST AS PLAUSIBLE. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY SINCE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL
LIKELY PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN THE OUTCOME. IF THE LATTER OPTION DOES
PLAY OUT...FORECASTED TEMPS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED AS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE FIRST LOW MOVE NORTH TO
KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING WILL BE LOST. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PANHANDLES A CHANCE TO DRY OUT A BIT AND SEE SOME SUN.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY BEFORE A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH DROPPED INTO THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT MONDAY AND BEYOND ON
TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW...HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE THAT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER DRY SPELL AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO NEAR
THE RED RIVER. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN LAPS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS IS NOTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE WEST AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST RAPID LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A
CONSENSUS INDICATING MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS REACHING WELL INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW TO MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS ALREADY AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS CHILDRESS AND MATADOR. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK IF NOT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND BEHAVIOR OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

DEEP MIXING AND SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
OUR AREA SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN EARLIER THOUGHT BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND THE FIRST ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WE HAVE MADE IS TO
ADD PRECIPITATION TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE COVERGENT AND MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR MOVING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVELY NARROW LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP FROM NEAR OR SOUTH OF
DALHART TO THE AMARILLO AREA AND EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING DRYLINE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO THIS EVENING. TWO CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE 1.) INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET CONTRIBUTING TO
STRENGTHENING 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 25 KNOTS (THERE IS
QUITE A SPREAD IN 850 MB SPEEDS AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE) AND 2.) CONTINUED MOISTENING RESULTING IN
LCL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 1KM...POSSIBLY LOWER.

WE WILL PROVIDE AN UPDATED DISCUSSION FOCUSING ON SEVERE POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE FURTHER ANALYSIS IS COMPLETED AND AS WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. A SPECIAL 21Z SOUNDING IS BEING
CONSIDERED. WE ARE PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS LATER TODAY AND MAY BE ABLE TO CAPTURE THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SUFFICIENTLY WITH THE 00Z SOUNDING. SO AN EARLIER
SOUNDING MAY BE OF LITTLE VALUE.

CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OCCURS ATOP THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER ARIZONA. ASCENT IS STRONGEST AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT VALUES ARE LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST
LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT SO THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LATE INTO THE NIGHT. ANY SURFACE
BASED STORMS AND WIND/TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND BEFORE DECOUPLING INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER WHICH THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
HAIL.

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/11




000
FXUS64 KAMA 290535 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1235 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
STRONG MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CAUSE IFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
WELL INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCASIONALLY DISRUPT STRATUS FIELD AND CAUSE VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS.  UNSURE OF HOW TRANSITION TO DRIER AIRMASS WILL TAKE
PLACE...BUT FOR NOW WILL FORECAST SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING...WITH CATEGORICAL
IMPROVEMENT OCCURRING SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTHEAST AND EAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN MOISTURE
SUPPLY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TERMINALS WILL BE
SPARED FROM STRONGEST CONVECTION IN THE NEAR TERM.  AS LOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY.  CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT CLEARING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT KDHT AND KAMA AS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH...WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN ITS WAKE.  KGUY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR OR MVFR THROUGH END OF FORECAST.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-27
CORRIDOR. EARLIER THINKING HAS CHANGED LITTLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT (1000-1500 MLCAPE ON MESOANALYSIS). EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT (50-55 KNOTS) FOR STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THIS THREAT
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THE
WINDOW FOR A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD MOST LIKELY BE BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 PM AND 10 PM WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND 0-1 KM
HELICITY INCREASES TO AROUND 150-200 M2/S2...BUT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. AFTERWARDS THE THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LASTING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS CONVECTION MOVES NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED.

A PEAK AT WHAT IS IN SO FAR FROM THE SPECIAL 21Z SOUNDING REVEALS
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1.5 KM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING ABOVE THIS YIELDING 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF AROUND
150 M2/S2. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN A SHALLOWER NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AS WELL AS
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND MARGINAL LCL HEIGHTS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE VWP AND MODIFY THE SOUNDING AS
SURFACE OBS CHANGE/MOISTURE INCREASES. ALSO NOTED IN THE FIRST
GLANCE OF THE SOUNDING IS THAT 100 MB ML PARCELS REMAINED SLIGHTLY
CAPPED. THIS CAN BE EASILY BE OVERCOME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTENING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL UPDATE WITH ANY PERTINENT
INFORMATION FROM THE COMPLETED 21Z SOUNDING AND/OR OTHER
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AS NECESSARY.

BRB

SHORT TERM...
SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FROM BRB.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER FRIDAY AND CONTINUE SLIDING EAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND PUT THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION...THUS
CAUSING SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. THE MID LEVELS WILL SEE DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND THUS ALLOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING AT THESE LEVELS FOR
STORMS THAT FORM. THIS WILL CREATE MORE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGER HAIL AS DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE COOLER AND SLOW MELTING. CONFIDENCE
ON THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS NOT VERY HIGH ON THIS OUTCOME AS THE
SCENARIO OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BEING SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE SEEMS JUST AS PLAUSIBLE. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY SINCE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL
LIKELY PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN THE OUTCOME. IF THE LATTER OPTION DOES
PLAY OUT...FORECASTED TEMPS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED AS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE FIRST LOW MOVE NORTH TO
KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING WILL BE LOST. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PANHANDLES A CHANCE TO DRY OUT A BIT AND SEE SOME SUN.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY BEFORE A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH DROPPED INTO THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT MONDAY AND BEYOND ON
TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW...HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE THAT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER DRY SPELL AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO NEAR
THE RED RIVER. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN LAPS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS IS NOTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE WEST AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST RAPID LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A
CONSENSUS INDICATING MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS REACHING WELL INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW TO MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS ALREADY AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS CHILDRESS AND MATADOR. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK IF NOT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND BEHAVIOR OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

DEEP MIXING AND SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
OUR AREA SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN EARLIER THOUGHT BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND THE FIRST ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WE HAVE MADE IS TO
ADD PRECIPITATION TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE COVERGENT AND MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR MOVING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVELY NARROW LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP FROM NEAR OR SOUTH OF
DALHART TO THE AMARILLO AREA AND EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING DRYLINE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO THIS EVENING. TWO CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE 1.) INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET CONTRIBUTING TO
STRENGTHENING 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 25 KNOTS (THERE IS
QUITE A SPREAD IN 850 MB SPEEDS AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE) AND 2.) CONTINUED MOISTENING RESULTING IN
LCL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 1KM...POSSIBLY LOWER.

WE WILL PROVIDE AN UPDATED DISCUSSION FOCUSING ON SEVERE POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE FURTHER ANALYSIS IS COMPLETED AND AS WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. A SPECIAL 21Z SOUNDING IS BEING
CONSIDERED. WE ARE PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS LATER TODAY AND MAY BE ABLE TO CAPTURE THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SUFFICIENTLY WITH THE 00Z SOUNDING. SO AN EARLIER
SOUNDING MAY BE OF LITTLE VALUE.

CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OCCURS ATOP THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER ARIZONA. ASCENT IS STRONGEST AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT VALUES ARE LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST
LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT SO THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LATE INTO THE NIGHT. ANY SURFACE
BASED STORMS AND WIND/TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND BEFORE DECOUPLING INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER WHICH THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
HAIL.

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/11




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290530 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVEN/T DROPPED AS LOW AS THE PREVIOUS SET OF
TAFS FORECASTED...AND HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MVFR IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. TOMORROW...VFR WILL
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE AND PREVAIL WITH BREEZY WINDS. A RETURN TO
MVFR IS LIKELY AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE RETURNED TO BRO AND HRL OVER THE PAST
TWO HOURS AS LOW-LVL CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE GULF ON SE
FLOW...WHICH SHOWS NICELY ON VIS IMAGERY. MFE STILL HANGING ON TO
VFR WITH OVC033 AS OF LAST HOUR.

HAVE CONTINUED TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WITH A FEW TWEAKS
ON TIMING. SHORT-TERM STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO BRO AND HRL AROUND 02-04Z...SO CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH ON THIS. LESS SO AT MFE SO GOING WITH LOW-END MVFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT THERE. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO
KEEP MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. VISIBILITIES MAY VARY SOMEWHAT THRU
THE NEXT 24HR AS VARYING AMTS OF SMOKY HAZE RIDE UP THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING 4-5 MI.

WINDS WILL PICK UP TO BREEZY CATEGORY WITH GUSTS TO 25KT BY LATE
MORNING FRI. 18Z GFS MODEL WINDS SEEM OVERDONE SO WILL LEAN TOWARD
NAM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
FRIDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THAT DEVELOPMENT WILL TIGHTEN UP THE SURFACE PGF...INCREASING SE-S
WINDS TO MODERATE OR BREEZY FROM THE COAST TO THE MID VALLEY ON
FRIDAY

PERSISTENT SE-S LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH 500 MB RIDGING THAT
WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE APRIL. A
DAY IN THE 90S WEST OF I-69E WILL BE ON TAP FRIDAY...WHEN NORMALS
ARE ONLY IN THE 80S.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE RGV AHEAD OF THIS NEXT 500 MB CLOSED
LOW WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONSIDERING THE COMBINATION OF THE FAR
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE
VALUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WILL GO WITH RAIN CHANCES BELOW
MENTIONABLE.

A STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILE AND MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL SUPPORT
BKN TO OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ALSO
TRAP HAZE FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNING TO THE SOUTH...REDUCING VSBY
SLIGHTLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE
70S...HIGHER THAN THE NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S.

THE LATEST TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY`S (TCEQ`S) AIR
QUALITY INDEX (AQI) PLACES THE RGV IN THE CATEGORY OF "UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS" DUE TO THE ONGOING AGRICULTURAL FIRES BURNING
ACROSS MUCH OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SE-S LOW LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND...PUSHING SMOKE AND HAZE OVER THE RGV AND
DEGRADING AIR QUALITY. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF HAZE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HAZE WILL MIX WITH SEA AIR AT NIGHT...AS FOG
FORMATION TAKES PLACE DUE TO THE LOWER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/....A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
ABOVE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES ON THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AT LEAST UP TO 850MB OVER THE REGION. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND MID
VALLEY BUT LESS OF A CHANCE IN THE LOWER VALLEY. AS THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LAYERS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA WHILE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER LAYERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH BELOW 850 MB AVERAGE OF 70 TO 80
PERCENT WHICH COULD INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
LINE WILL BEGIN TO SET UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SIERRA
MADRE OVER MX ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE MON OVER S TEXAS AS A
PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN WED ANOTHER
INFLUX OF MOISTURE OVER MEXICO WILL TRAVEL EAST ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS DIFFER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT. GFS 12Z MODEL RUN SHOWS A DELAY WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. EVENTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA FROM MON THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL INTERACT WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
RESULTING IN HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW...FRIDAY...WITH
MORNING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN SEVEN FEET OR
ABOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST SATURDAY ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. EXPECT SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 5 TO 6 FEET AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT WINDS WILL BE MORE EASTERLY
TO SE. SCEC CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF SATURDAY.
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
MONDAY WILL ENHANCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KMAF 290525
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1225 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Southeast winds will shift from the west later tonight then become
gusty during the day before subsiding after 00Z. Satellite shows
patchy MVFR CIGs moving up from the southeast and may affect MAF
the next few hours. A dryline moving east will shift the winds
from the west and will push east any low clouds leaving VFR
conditions through the remainder of the period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1000 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc analysis shows the dryline has bowed westward in its
retreat, and extends from near KSGV-KINK-KPEQ-KFST-KPEQ. This
feature is forecast to retreat a bit more thru at least 06Z, then
begin mixing eastward as stronger westerlies push into the region.
Latest HRRR seems to have finally gotten right after 00Z data came
in, and still hints at convection developing overnight as the
dryline surges east. 00Z NAM agrees as well. W/steep mid-lvl LRs
still forecast, and strong deep lyr shear rounding the base of the
trough, still cannot rule out a svr threat overnight. However,
based on latest HRRR/NAM, we`ll lower POPs some, but keep coverage
the same. In addition, we`ll update other parameters as necessary,
and button up the fire wx grids w/the expiration of the RFW.
Updates out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 215 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough digging over the Four Corners
region this afternoon. This has led to increasing SW flow aloft and
the development of a surface low over E NM. Moisture has begun to
surge back west across the area in response to height falls
associated with the upper trough. A sharpening dryline may be a
focus for a few showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon
across the eastern half of the Permian Basin. The best chance for
storms comes later tonight as the dryline retreats west and large
scale lift arrives with the upper trough. Storms are expected to
develop across the western Permian Basin where a Pacific front
will combine with the dryline and move back east across the region
overnight. Some of these storms may be severe with large hail and
damaging winds given steepening lapse rates and an increasing LLJ.

These storms move east quickly Friday morning with windy, dry
conditions filling in across the region Friday afternoon. The base
of the upper trough will graze our area similar to the system this
past Tuesday. Strong westerly winds will mix to the surface,
especially across the higher terrain and adjacent plains. Will
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning across the Guadalupe
Mountains. Strong winds are also possible east of the mountains so a
Winds Advisory may be issued on later shifts.

Another upper trough will drop south across Nevada and Arizona
Saturday helping to again draw moisture back west across Texas. At
the same time, a strong cold front will move south across the area
Sunday. Showers and storms are expected to increase along and behind
the front Sunday and Monday as the upper trough approaches.
Temperatures look to cool significantly behind the front due to the
widespread clouds and precip. It is possible many locations may drop
into the 50`s Sunday afternoon and stay there trough Monday! We will
continue to monitor the forecast and make changes if needed.

An upper ridge builds in behind this system, but temperatures stay
cool through midweek before rebounding to near normal late next
week.

FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and dry conditions continue to reside across the area and
with an upper trough to the west there are increasing winds too.
The warm, dry and unstable conditions are reflected in a moderate
Haines Index of 5 and the RFW continues across the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico. Critical fire weather concerns
will expand on Friday to reach farther south into the Davis Mtns
and east into the western PB. Temps will cool, but winds will be
stronger Friday. The Trans Pecos and southeast NM plains continue
to undergo substantial drying and are at or very near the 90th
percentile using ERC-G from TAMFS and certainly supports critical
fire weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  79  52  69 /  10   0   0  20
Carlsbad                       49  83  50  66 /   0  10   0  30
Dryden                         59  91  61  85 /  10   0   0  30
Fort Stockton                  54  86  56  82 /   0   0   0  30
Guadalupe Pass                 49  74  48  64 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          46  77  48  64 /   0   0   0  30
Marfa                          39  77  43  79 /   0  10   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           53  84  54  71 /  10   0  10  30
Odessa                         55  84  54  71 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  87  55  74 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10




000
FXUS64 KSJT 290507 AAB
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1207 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

With the 06Z TAF package, have included low-level wind shear
groups given the continuation of fairly weak surface winds and
the development of the low-level jet. Scattered elevated
convection has developed in some of our far eastern counties.
Could have additional widely scattered development of showers and
thunderstorms overnight, but still have placement uncertainty.
Carrying VCTS groups at KABI and KBBD, and depending on radar
trends, TAF updates may needed for TSRA. Low cloud cover is
expanding across much of west central Texas and is mostly in the
MVFR category. Expect a lowering of ceilings into the 1000-1500
ft range overnight, with temporary IFR conditions at KJCT. Some
visibility reductions are also possible with haze and light fog.
Southeast winds will veer to south overnight.

During the day Friday, a weak Pacific front/dryline will advance
east across west central Texas, and south-southwest winds will
veer to the west with its passage. Carrying VCTS at KABI and KBBD
in the morning prior to arrival of the Pacific front/dryline, and
at KJCT until 19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Currently clear skies across much of west central Texas, with a
VFR-based cumulus field overspreading the southeastern part of
our area. Low-level moisture surge will result in rapid low
cloud development/expansion northwest across our southern and
central counties between 02Z and 05Z. The low cloud field will
persist overnight, with ceilings mostly in the 1000-1500 ft
range at the TAF sites. Cannot rule out the possibility of IFR
ceilings at times at our southern TAF sites. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop after Midnight, and
to continue into early Friday morning. Carrying VCTS at KABI
08Z-15Z. Gusty southeast winds this evening will veer to the
south overnight.

During the day Friday, a weak Pacific front/dryline will advance
east across west central Texas, and south-southwest winds will
veer to the west with its passage. Carrying VCTS at KABI, KBBD
and KJCT in the morning prior to arrival of the Pacific
front/dryline.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Synoptically, an upper level low is centered over the four
corners area this afternoon with a Pacific front bisecting New
Mexico as it moves to the east. Closer to our CWA, a lee-side low
is over the west-central Panhandle with a warm front running east
from the surface low to just north of DFW. A dryline from the
surface low runs south through the Permian Basin to the eastern
Big Bend region. The GFS is breaking out convective activity along
the dryline early this evening while the NAM is holding off until
later in the evening. In any event, convective coverage over the
forecast area should increase through the overnight hours. The
Pacific front moving into our area from the west will catch the
dryline tomorrow morning with both boundaries moving west to east
across the forecast area through the day tomorrow. By noon
tomorrow precipitation should have ended over the western half of
the CWA with convective activity limited to our eastern tier of
counties by late tomorrow afternoon. A few strong storms will be
possible overnight and into tomorrow, with large hail and damaging
winds being the primary hazards. Significant rainfall totals over
the next 24 hours are not expected. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s and highs tomorrow will be in the mid 80s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

Friday night, a line of showers and thunderstorms should be
exiting the area. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather
associated with this line, with the main hazards being large hail
and damaging winds, but most of the activity is expected to be
east of our area. Will keep a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms generally east of a Brownwood to Junction line for
these storms as they move out of the area, likely before midnight.

Saturday and Sunday, we can expect generally dry conditions. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday, but models are having
a hard time agreeing on the southern progress of the model during
the day on Saturday. With it getting into the warmer part of the
year, will hedge forecast toward a slower solution, and thus
warmer temperatures for the southern half of the CWA Saturday.
Surface high pressure will strengthen Saturday night across the
northern and central plains. This will help push the cold front
through the area completely Saturday night, resulting in cooler
temperatures Sunday, with highs possibly as cool as the upper 60s
for locations north of I-20.

Once the surface high moves into the area Sunday, it is expected
to remain in place through the early part of next week, keeping
cool temperatures going through at least Monday. A weakening
mid/upper level shortwave trough will move out across the
southern plains area Monday, resulting in a chance for showers
and thunderstorms from Sunday evening through Monday as southwest
flow is lifted up and over the top of the relatively cold air at
the surface. Although a few thunderstorms will be probable, severe
weather does not appear to be a concern at this time.

The surface high will begin weakening Tuesday, and upper level
riding will approach from the west, resulting in a warming trend
through the middle of the week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  66  83  55  81 /  40  30  10   5
San Angelo  68  87  55  90 /  30  20  10   5
Junction  69  86  55  89 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99




000
FXUS64 KSJT 290507 AAB
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1207 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

With the 06Z TAF package, have included low-level wind shear
groups given the continuation of fairly weak surface winds and
the development of the low-level jet. Scattered elevated
convection has developed in some of our far eastern counties.
Could have additional widely scattered development of showers and
thunderstorms overnight, but still have placement uncertainty.
Carrying VCTS groups at KABI and KBBD, and depending on radar
trends, TAF updates may needed for TSRA. Low cloud cover is
expanding across much of west central Texas and is mostly in the
MVFR category. Expect a lowering of ceilings into the 1000-1500
ft range overnight, with temporary IFR conditions at KJCT. Some
visibility reductions are also possible with haze and light fog.
Southeast winds will veer to south overnight.

During the day Friday, a weak Pacific front/dryline will advance
east across west central Texas, and south-southwest winds will
veer to the west with its passage. Carrying VCTS at KABI and KBBD
in the morning prior to arrival of the Pacific front/dryline, and
at KJCT until 19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Currently clear skies across much of west central Texas, with a
VFR-based cumulus field overspreading the southeastern part of
our area. Low-level moisture surge will result in rapid low
cloud development/expansion northwest across our southern and
central counties between 02Z and 05Z. The low cloud field will
persist overnight, with ceilings mostly in the 1000-1500 ft
range at the TAF sites. Cannot rule out the possibility of IFR
ceilings at times at our southern TAF sites. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop after Midnight, and
to continue into early Friday morning. Carrying VCTS at KABI
08Z-15Z. Gusty southeast winds this evening will veer to the
south overnight.

During the day Friday, a weak Pacific front/dryline will advance
east across west central Texas, and south-southwest winds will
veer to the west with its passage. Carrying VCTS at KABI, KBBD
and KJCT in the morning prior to arrival of the Pacific
front/dryline.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Synoptically, an upper level low is centered over the four
corners area this afternoon with a Pacific front bisecting New
Mexico as it moves to the east. Closer to our CWA, a lee-side low
is over the west-central Panhandle with a warm front running east
from the surface low to just north of DFW. A dryline from the
surface low runs south through the Permian Basin to the eastern
Big Bend region. The GFS is breaking out convective activity along
the dryline early this evening while the NAM is holding off until
later in the evening. In any event, convective coverage over the
forecast area should increase through the overnight hours. The
Pacific front moving into our area from the west will catch the
dryline tomorrow morning with both boundaries moving west to east
across the forecast area through the day tomorrow. By noon
tomorrow precipitation should have ended over the western half of
the CWA with convective activity limited to our eastern tier of
counties by late tomorrow afternoon. A few strong storms will be
possible overnight and into tomorrow, with large hail and damaging
winds being the primary hazards. Significant rainfall totals over
the next 24 hours are not expected. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s and highs tomorrow will be in the mid 80s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

Friday night, a line of showers and thunderstorms should be
exiting the area. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather
associated with this line, with the main hazards being large hail
and damaging winds, but most of the activity is expected to be
east of our area. Will keep a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms generally east of a Brownwood to Junction line for
these storms as they move out of the area, likely before midnight.

Saturday and Sunday, we can expect generally dry conditions. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday, but models are having
a hard time agreeing on the southern progress of the model during
the day on Saturday. With it getting into the warmer part of the
year, will hedge forecast toward a slower solution, and thus
warmer temperatures for the southern half of the CWA Saturday.
Surface high pressure will strengthen Saturday night across the
northern and central plains. This will help push the cold front
through the area completely Saturday night, resulting in cooler
temperatures Sunday, with highs possibly as cool as the upper 60s
for locations north of I-20.

Once the surface high moves into the area Sunday, it is expected
to remain in place through the early part of next week, keeping
cool temperatures going through at least Monday. A weakening
mid/upper level shortwave trough will move out across the
southern plains area Monday, resulting in a chance for showers
and thunderstorms from Sunday evening through Monday as southwest
flow is lifted up and over the top of the relatively cold air at
the surface. Although a few thunderstorms will be probable, severe
weather does not appear to be a concern at this time.

The surface high will begin weakening Tuesday, and upper level
riding will approach from the west, resulting in a warming trend
through the middle of the week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  66  83  55  81 /  40  30  10   5
San Angelo  68  87  55  90 /  30  20  10   5
Junction  69  86  55  89 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 290501
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1201 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF KCLL AND KUTS...EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY 09Z OVER THOSE SITES WHICH ARE NOT
ALREADY LOWER THAN VFR AT 06Z. NAMBUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THE GUIDANCE IS TOO LOW FOR CEILINGS FOR MOST SITES.
HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS AT KGLS AND KGLS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IFR
CONDITIONS COULD WORK INLAND TO KSGR AND KHOU. GOOD WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALSO GENERATE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
RAIN.

ON FRIDAY...A CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WELL
INLAND. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS TO THE
COVERAGE PROBLEM. THERE WILL BE BREEZY SURFACE CONDITIONS
INDICATING VERY GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY
START EARLIER THAN INDICATED. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THEN THEN WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD TOWARD THE TERMINAL SITES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW ITEMS THAT POINT TO
THIS SOLUTION ARE THE GFS AND ECWMF BOTH FORECASTING A 250 MB
DIVERGENT AREA MORE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS DURING DAY ON
FRIDAY. THIS AREA DOES NOT WORK ITS WAY INTO SE TEXAS UNTIL THE
EVENING. THE 500 MB LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALSO ARE NOT FORECAST
BY BOTH MODELS TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE EVENING. THUS...TWEAKED THE
FORECASTS TO HAVE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO ARRIVE LATER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SE TEXAS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ABOUT
JACKSON MS TO NEAR WACO TO NEAR DEL RIO. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL PW VALUES NEAR 1.4 INCHES AT CRP AND 1.8
INCHES AT LCH. THE LCH SOUNDING SHOWS MSTR FROM ABOUT 900-700 MB
WHILE THE CRP SHOWS MORE OF A CAP AT 850 MB AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MOIST LAYER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP DOESN`T REALLY START DEVELOPING
UNTIL AFTER 10Z. TRIMMED POPS BACK A LITTLE BUT STILL FEEL SOME
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES. COULD GET SOME STREAMER SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN FOG IN THE WX
GRIDS. MIN TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES NEEDED
THERE. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  71  84  68 /  30  60  80  70  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  87  72  83  70 /  20  40  70  70  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  81  76  80  73 /  10  40  50  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 290501
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1201 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF KCLL AND KUTS...EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY 09Z OVER THOSE SITES WHICH ARE NOT
ALREADY LOWER THAN VFR AT 06Z. NAMBUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THE GUIDANCE IS TOO LOW FOR CEILINGS FOR MOST SITES.
HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS AT KGLS AND KGLS WOULD SUGGEST THAT IFR
CONDITIONS COULD WORK INLAND TO KSGR AND KHOU. GOOD WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALSO GENERATE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
RAIN.

ON FRIDAY...A CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT
THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WELL
INLAND. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS TO THE
COVERAGE PROBLEM. THERE WILL BE BREEZY SURFACE CONDITIONS
INDICATING VERY GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY
START EARLIER THAN INDICATED. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THEN THEN WORK THEIR WAY EASTWARD TOWARD THE TERMINAL SITES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW ITEMS THAT POINT TO
THIS SOLUTION ARE THE GFS AND ECWMF BOTH FORECASTING A 250 MB
DIVERGENT AREA MORE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS DURING DAY ON
FRIDAY. THIS AREA DOES NOT WORK ITS WAY INTO SE TEXAS UNTIL THE
EVENING. THE 500 MB LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALSO ARE NOT FORECAST
BY BOTH MODELS TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE EVENING. THUS...TWEAKED THE
FORECASTS TO HAVE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO ARRIVE LATER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SE TEXAS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ABOUT
JACKSON MS TO NEAR WACO TO NEAR DEL RIO. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL PW VALUES NEAR 1.4 INCHES AT CRP AND 1.8
INCHES AT LCH. THE LCH SOUNDING SHOWS MSTR FROM ABOUT 900-700 MB
WHILE THE CRP SHOWS MORE OF A CAP AT 850 MB AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MOIST LAYER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP DOESN`T REALLY START DEVELOPING
UNTIL AFTER 10Z. TRIMMED POPS BACK A LITTLE BUT STILL FEEL SOME
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES. COULD GET SOME STREAMER SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN FOG IN THE WX
GRIDS. MIN TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES NEEDED
THERE. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  71  84  68 /  30  60  80  70  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  87  72  83  70 /  20  40  70  70  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  81  76  80  73 /  10  40  50  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KLUB 290440
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS MORE LIKELY AT KCDS BUT MAY BRING IFR TO
MVFR CEILINGS AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. ALSO...A LINE OF T-STORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL
LIKELY IMPACT ALL THE TERMINALS. THEN DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

UPDATE...
WE FINALLY HAVE A LULL IN CONVECTION AFTER A FAIRLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY RETREATING WESTWARD
AT AN UNEVEN PACE. THERE IS NO LINE OF REFERENCE TO DESCRIBE ITS
CURRENT POSITION. THE BEST DESCRIPTION IS THE DRY SECTOR IS ALL
OF EASTERN NM AS WELL AS A BULGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
BAILEY COUNTY...ALL OF COCHRAN AND YOAKUM COUNTIES...AND ALL BUT
EASTERN LAMB COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WHERE
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ARE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S
WHILE DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE DRYLINE ARE LUCKY IF THEY ARE IN THE
20S. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING LOW IS
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND WILL NOT BE HERE TILL SOME TIME AROUND
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOST LIKELY THE LATER. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND THE 00Z NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION
MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SPEED OF THE RETREATING DRYLINE I WOULD HAVE TO AGREE WITH THE
MODELS. THE CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT THE FIRST CONVECTION TO
GO...AS WELL AS BE THE HEAVIEST/STRONGEST...WILL BE OVER
COCHRAN/LAMB COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS A BULGE IN THE DRYLINE. THIS
BULGE APPEARS TO HAVE CREATED A MESO SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER
ROOSEVELT COUNTY, NM SHOULD SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SURFACE BASED
LIFT. THE MAIN STORM MODE APPEARS TO BE LINEAR AS THE DRYLINE
PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WHILE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT A FEW
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FA. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE CURVED IN NATURE STARTING JUST
WEST OF THE I27 CORRIDOR AND INCREASE THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO.

THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS
FAVORING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST. A MENTION OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPDATED FORECAST. ALDRICH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THETA-E AXIS
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE US-87 I-27 CORRIDOR THENCE CURVING BACK
A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD DIMMITT. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT
FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND ENHANCE RISK OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES RAMP UP SHARPLY
FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE. THREAT OF
BASEBALLS/70MPH/TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. OVERALL A
GUARDED VIGILANCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
RELIEVING THE AREA OF DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
FRONT COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO
INITIATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOWARDS
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. HOWEVER...STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES GIVEN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERHEAD.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT COUPLED AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH MAY AGAIN BRING IN SOME CONVECTION FROM
THE WEST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SHORT WAVE SO
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN THE CASCADES AND SIERRA
NEVADA RANGES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE UPPER FLOW LOCALLY TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN US NEXT WEEK BUT BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WE WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER COOL EASTERLY FLOW TO START OFF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UNSEASONABLY COOL KEEPING PROSPECTS OF SEVERE STORMS LOW. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM EXITS...WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33




000
FXUS64 KFWD 290437
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1137 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR VARIOUS IMPACTS WILL BE THE CONCERN FOR
THE NEXT 30 HOURS OR SO. AT 04Z...DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 70S
AND UPPER 60S FROM WACO TOT HE SOUTH...WHILE THEY WERE INT HE MID
50S IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FOR THE RIDE.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT THE WACO TERMINAL FOR THE
PAST TWO HOURS...WITH THE LIGHTNING DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...A FEW STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED CLOSE TO THE DFW
METROPLEX...AND THESE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
METROPLEX TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT...AND
WILL CARRY EITHER PREVAILING THUNDER OR VCTS FOR THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL THEN BE A FEW HOURS OF RELATIVE
CALM...WITH ONLY MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS TO DEAL WITH...BEFORE THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOX

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
IT HAS BEEN A NICE DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BUT CHANGES
ARE ON THE WAY AS A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS HEADS BACK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW WITH
A NOTEWORTHY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THAT COULD END UP BEING
SIGNIFICANT IF MESOSCALE FEATURES EVOLVE AS DISCUSSED BELOW.

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT THE RICH MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THAT
WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. WARM FRONTS ARE NOT
SURPRISINGLY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION...AND WARM ADVECTION
IS OFTEN SYNONYMOUS WITH LIFTING OR RISING AIR. AS THIS WARM AND
MOIST AIR ENTERS THE CWA...IT WILL BE UNDERCUTTING A COLDER
AIRMASS ALOFT WHICH WILL YIELD HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY THAT
WILL BE UNCAPPED. THE WARM ADVECTION ITSELF WILL BE PROVIDING THE
LIFT FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO BLOSSOM. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
WIND OR TORNADO POTENTIAL DESPITE WELL ORGANIZED AND IMPRESSIVE
SHEAR PROFILES. HOWEVER THESE STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS FOR THE STRONGEST
CELLS. THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND MID EVENING...WITH STORMS MOVING
NORTHWARD AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THE TIME
THEY REACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS OF
60-70 PERCENT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...WITH POPS JUST 30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT ON WHETHER THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP/PERSIST OVER THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AM SIDING WITH THE RAP/HRRR/TTU
WRF FORECASTS WHICH KICK THE WARM FRONT AND STORMS NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER BY DAY BREAK. THIS IS BECAUSE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
THE LOW-MID LEVELS SHOULD ALSO PULL SOME WARMER AIR IN FROM SOUTH
TEXAS WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE CWA FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WELL SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS
CAP IS NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY STRONG BY ANY OF THE MODELS...AND
AS TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY MIDDAY FRIDAY IT
SHOULD BREAK.

WHILE A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND REACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT
CONVECTION WILL SPONTANEOUSLY DEVELOP WELL EAST OF THE DRY LINE IN
AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDDAY. THIS IS ADVERTISED BY
SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS...AND ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
DROPPING THE HIGHEST QPF AND UPWARD MOTIONS EAST OF I-35 BETWEEN
18Z-00Z. THUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL NOT NEED
THE DRY LINE OR PEAK DAY TIME HEATING TO DEVELOP. IN SHORT THIS
EVENT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE THE TYPICAL DRYLINE DAY
WHERE WE WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FOR STORMS TO FIRE OUT WEST.

INSTEAD THE INITIATION OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR COULD LEAD TO
NUMEROUS STORMS IF THE CAP IS TOO WEAK AND PERHAPS A MESSY
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THAT DOES NOT LET ANY ONE STORM HAVE ALL OF
THE INSTABILITY TO THEMSELVES. THIS WOULD LOWER THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER IF CONVECTION IS NOT AS NUMEROUS THERE
IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING
GIVEN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3500 J/KG
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING IN THE
PRESENCE OF WELL ORGANIZED SHEAR PROFILES...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO BE CONCERNED
ABOUT TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UNUSUALLY HIGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY COMPLEMENTS OF LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. FURTHERMORE IF
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY AS
EXPECTED...IT IS LIKELY TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION WITH JUST A
GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT. THIS COULD LEAD TO EXCESSIVE MULTI-INCH
RAINFALL IN LOCALIZED AREAS. SINCE THIS FLOODING POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE FEATURES DEVELOPING IN THE RIGHT
PLACE AND TIME...WE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE BEST TO LET LATER SHIFTS
MAKE THE CALL WHETHER TO INCLUDE PART OF THE AREA IN A WATCH.

BELIEVE THAT FRIDAY/S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND LIKELY INTO EAST TEXAS
BY MIDNIGHT. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT
WILL SET UP EAST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY WHICH MEANS ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE REGION.
HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES IN CASE THE
FRONT/DRY LINE SETS UP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE FRONT/DRY LINE OVER MOST OF THE AREA IT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL ASSUREDLY RESULT IN A SUNNY AND NICE DAY
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG BUT
WILL OCCUR ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEST TO MID
70S EAST.

FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STRING A FEW DRY AND PLEASANT DAYS TOGETHER.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80 WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    70  81  64  86  58 /  60  80  50  10   5
WACO                71  82  64  87  58 /  40  80  50  10  10
PARIS               64  78  65  83  57 /  70  90  80  30  10
DENTON              66  79  59  86  54 /  60  80  50  10   5
MCKINNEY            67  79  61  84  55 /  70  80  60  10  10
DALLAS              70  81  65  86  59 /  60  80  60  10  10
TERRELL             69  81  66  85  58 /  70  80  70  20  10
CORSICANA           71  83  66  86  61 /  40  80  70  20  10
TEMPLE              72  82  64  88  59 /  30  70  60  20  10
MINERAL WELLS       66  81  56  85  54 /  50  60  30   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/77




000
FXUS64 KLUB 290320
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1020 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
WE FINALLY HAVE A LULL IN CONVECTION AFTER A FAIRLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY RETREATING WESTWARD
AT AN UNEVEN PACE. THERE IS NO LINE OF REFERENCE TO DESCRIBE ITS
CURRENT POSITION. THE BEST DESCRIPTION IS THE DRY SECTOR IS ALL
OF EASTERN NM AS WELL AS A BULGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
BAILEY COUNTY...ALL OF COCHRAN AND YOAKUM COUNTIES...AND ALL BUT
EASTERN LAMB COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WHERE
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ARE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S
WHILE DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE DRYLINE ARE LUCKY IF THEY ARE IN THE
20S. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING LOW IS
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND WILL NOT BE HERE TILL SOME TIME AROUND
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOST LIKELY THE LATER. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND THE 00Z NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION
MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SPEED OF THE RETREATING DRYLINE I WOULD HAVE TO AGREE WITH THE
MODELS. THE CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT THE FIRST CONVECTION TO
GO...AS WELL AS BE THE HEAVIEST/STRONGEST...WILL BE OVER
COCHRAN/LAMB COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS A BULGE IN THE DRYLINE. THIS
BULGE APPEARS TO HAVE CREATED A MESO SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER
ROOSEVELT COUNTY, NM SHOULD SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SURFACE BASED
LIFT. THE MAIN STORM MODE APPEARS TO BE LINEAR AS THE DRYLINE
PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WHILE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT A FEW
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FA. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE CURVED IN NATURE STARTING JUST
WEST OF THE I27 CORRIDOR AND INCREASE THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO.

THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS
FAVORING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST. A MENTION OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPDATED FORECAST. ALDRICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THETA-E AXIS
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE US-87 I-27 CORRIDOR THENCE CURVING BACK
A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD DIMMITT. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT
FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND ENHANCE RISK OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES RAMP UP SHARPLY
FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE. THREAT OF
BASEBALLS/70MPH/TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. OVERALL A
GUARDED VIGILANCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
RELIEVING THE AREA OF DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
FRONT COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO
INITIATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOWARDS
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. HOWEVER...STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES GIVEN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERHEAD.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT COUPLED AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH MAY AGAIN BRING IN SOME CONVECTION FROM
THE WEST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SHORT WAVE SO
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN THE CASCADES AND SIERRA
NEVADA RANGES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE UPPER FLOW LOCALLY TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN US NEXT WEEK BUT BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WE WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER COOL EASTERLY FLOW TO START OFF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UNSEASONABLY COOL KEEPING PROSPECTS OF SEVERE STORMS LOW. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM EXITS...WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51




000
FXUS64 KMAF 290300
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1000 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc analysis shows the dryline has bowed westward in its
retreat, and extends from near KSGV-KINK-KPEQ-KFST-KPEQ. This
feature is forecast to retreat a bit more thru at least 06Z, then
begin mixing eastward as stronger westerlies push into the region.
Latest HRRR seems to have finally gotten right after 00Z data came
in, and still hints at convection developing overnight as the
dryline surges east. 00Z NAM agrees as well. W/steep mid-lvl LRs
still forecast, and strong deep lyr shear rounding the base of the
trough, still cannot rule out a svr threat overnight. However,
based on latest HRRR/NAM, we`ll lower POPs some, but keep coverage
the same. In addition, we`ll update other parameters as necessary,
and button up the fire wx grids w/the expiration of the RFW.
Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 215 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough digging over the Four Corners
region this afternoon. This has led to increasing SW flow aloft and
the development of a surface low over E NM. Moisture has begun to
surge back west across the area in response to height falls
associated with the upper trough. A sharpening dryline may be a
focus for a few showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon
across the eastern half of the Permian Basin. The best chance for
storms comes later tonight as the dryline retreats west and large
scale lift arrives with the upper trough. Storms are expected to
develop across the western Permian Basin where a Pacific front
will combine with the dryline and move back east across the region
overnight. Some of these storms may be severe with large hail and
damaging winds given steepening lapse rates and an increasing LLJ.

These storms move east quickly Friday morning with windy, dry
conditions filling in across the region Friday afternoon. The base
of the upper trough will graze our area similar to the system this
past Tuesday. Strong westerly winds will mix to the surface,
especially across the higher terrain and adjacent plains. Will
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning across the Guadalupe
Mountains. Strong winds are also possible east of the mountains so a
Winds Advisory may be issued on later shifts.

Another upper trough will drop south across Nevada and Arizona
Saturday helping to again draw moisture back west across Texas. At
the same time, a strong cold front will move south across the area
Sunday. Showers and storms are expected to increase along and behind
the front Sunday and Monday as the upper trough approaches.
Temperatures look to cool significantly behind the front due to the
widespread clouds and precip. It is possible many locations may drop
into the 50`s Sunday afternoon and stay there trough Monday! We will
continue to monitor the forecast and make changes if needed.

An upper ridge builds in behind this system, but temperatures stay
cool through midweek before rebounding to near normal late next
week.

FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and dry conditions continue to reside across the area and
with an upper trough to the west there are increasing winds too.
The warm, dry and unstable conditions are reflected in a moderate
Haines Index of 5 and the RFW continues across the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico. Critical fire weather concerns
will expand on Friday to reach farther south into the Davis Mtns
and east into the western PB. Temps will cool, but winds will be
stronger Friday. The Trans Pecos and southeast NM plains continue
to undergo substantial drying and are at or very near the 90th
percentile using ERC-G from TAMFS and certainly supports critical
fire weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  83  50  79 /  20  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       51  80  49  83 /  10  10   0  10
Dryden                         62  93  59  91 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  61  84  54  86 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  69  49  74 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          52  76  46  77 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                          39  75  39  77 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           62  83  53  84 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                         65  83  55  84 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                           53  85  51  87 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Friday for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

80/44




000
FXUS64 KCRP 290239 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
939 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT TRENDS AND REMOVED
POPS FOR OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS WELL CAPPED. DID HOWEVER
LEAVE IN MENTION FOR LIGHT ISENTROPIC ACTIVITY FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO RAMP UP LATE IN
THE NIGHT. A MIXTURE OF HAZE AND FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH MOST VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 MILES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...MVFR THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LRD TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 08Z. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...TO MVFR /AND POSSIBLE IFR LEVELS FROM
CRP-ALI-VCT/. HZ AND BR DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. A 25-35 KT LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
BUT ELEVATED SFC WINDS SHOULD KEEP LLWS OUT OF THE TAFS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN AROUND 14Z-16Z FROM CRP-ALI-VCT...WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS WITH CIG HEIGHTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OUT WEST AT LRD BY LATE MORNING...AS HIGH-END MVFR CIGS
MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)....HAZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING DUE TO SMOKE FROM MEXICO BEING
USHERED NORTHWARD INTO S TX. A MIX OF HAZE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP
THE AIRMASS MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBY`S GENERALLY ABV 2SM OR BETTER
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
W...MAINLY FOR EARLY EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT CAPPED ACROSS THE N
WITH A MUCH STRONGER CAP FARTHER S INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND SRN
BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE BETTER CHCS FOR
RAIN WILL BE FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A STRONGER UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA AND EJECTS STRONGER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS S TX AND A
DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE W CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE
ENVIRONMENT TO BE VERY UNSTABLE ALONG WITH A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND
DEEPER MOISTURE FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE BEST CHCS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO PROXIMITY OF BETTER DYNAMICS AND
WEAKER CAP. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...FEEL ISOLD PULSE SVR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI. MODELS PROG AN MCS TO DVLP N OF THE AREA THAT
MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE N-NE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. THUS...WENT WITH HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE N FOR 06Z-
12Z SAT MORNING.

AS FOR WINDS...AM EXPECTING THE WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS TOWARD EARLY FRI MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING AT 4
AM FRI MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FRI AFTERNOON...BUT FOR AM GOING WITH
CAUTION.

IN ADDITION...TIDES MAY APPROACH 2FT ABV MSL ONCE AGAIN FRI MORNING
DURING HIGH TIDE. IT WILL BE BORDERLINE BUT MAY SKIRT THE 2FT MARK
AT TIMES FRI MORNING. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH FRI. THEREFORE...EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A STRONG UPPER S/WV
APPROACHES THE REGION. AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING OVER OR NEAR THE NE
COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING...AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THOSE
STORMS MAY SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS. A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT EXISTS AS WELL
GIVEN ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS.

MODELS INITIALLY HAD A NOTICEABLE BREAK BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THAT
DISTINCTION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BLURRED AS MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY FOCUS THAT MOISTURE INTO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT THEN SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTING ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO TRAINING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DECELERATING SURFACE FRONT.
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE COASTAL BEND. BY WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD
BE DRY...AND INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE MAY BE DRY FOR SEVERAL
DAYS THEREAFTER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL UP UNTIL THE FROPA ON
MONDAY...THEN WILL RETREAT TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MAY.

CONTINUING EAST TO SOUTHEAST MARINE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED TIDE
LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WATER LEVELS
LIKELY 1 TO 1 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP RIP CURRENT
RISKS ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  88  76  86  72  /  10  20  10  40  10
VICTORIA          75  85  72  82  69  /  10  30  50  60  20
LAREDO            76  97  74  94  70  /  10  20  20  30  10
ALICE             76  92  75  89  71  /  10  20  20  40  10
ROCKPORT          78  85  76  82  73  /  10  20  20  50  20
COTULLA           73  92  71  91  68  /  10  30  30  30  10
KINGSVILLE        78  91  76  89  72  /  10  20  10  40  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  76  82  74  /  10  20  10  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 290239 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
939 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT TRENDS AND REMOVED
POPS FOR OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS WELL CAPPED. DID HOWEVER
LEAVE IN MENTION FOR LIGHT ISENTROPIC ACTIVITY FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO RAMP UP LATE IN
THE NIGHT. A MIXTURE OF HAZE AND FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH MOST VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 MILES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...MVFR THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LRD TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 08Z. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...TO MVFR /AND POSSIBLE IFR LEVELS FROM
CRP-ALI-VCT/. HZ AND BR DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. A 25-35 KT LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
BUT ELEVATED SFC WINDS SHOULD KEEP LLWS OUT OF THE TAFS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN AROUND 14Z-16Z FROM CRP-ALI-VCT...WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS WITH CIG HEIGHTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OUT WEST AT LRD BY LATE MORNING...AS HIGH-END MVFR CIGS
MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)....HAZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING DUE TO SMOKE FROM MEXICO BEING
USHERED NORTHWARD INTO S TX. A MIX OF HAZE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP
THE AIRMASS MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBY`S GENERALLY ABV 2SM OR BETTER
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
W...MAINLY FOR EARLY EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT CAPPED ACROSS THE N
WITH A MUCH STRONGER CAP FARTHER S INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND SRN
BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE BETTER CHCS FOR
RAIN WILL BE FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A STRONGER UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA AND EJECTS STRONGER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS S TX AND A
DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE W CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE
ENVIRONMENT TO BE VERY UNSTABLE ALONG WITH A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND
DEEPER MOISTURE FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE BEST CHCS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO PROXIMITY OF BETTER DYNAMICS AND
WEAKER CAP. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...FEEL ISOLD PULSE SVR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI. MODELS PROG AN MCS TO DVLP N OF THE AREA THAT
MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE N-NE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. THUS...WENT WITH HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE N FOR 06Z-
12Z SAT MORNING.

AS FOR WINDS...AM EXPECTING THE WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS TOWARD EARLY FRI MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING AT 4
AM FRI MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FRI AFTERNOON...BUT FOR AM GOING WITH
CAUTION.

IN ADDITION...TIDES MAY APPROACH 2FT ABV MSL ONCE AGAIN FRI MORNING
DURING HIGH TIDE. IT WILL BE BORDERLINE BUT MAY SKIRT THE 2FT MARK
AT TIMES FRI MORNING. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH FRI. THEREFORE...EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A STRONG UPPER S/WV
APPROACHES THE REGION. AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING OVER OR NEAR THE NE
COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING...AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THOSE
STORMS MAY SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS. A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT EXISTS AS WELL
GIVEN ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS.

MODELS INITIALLY HAD A NOTICEABLE BREAK BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THAT
DISTINCTION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BLURRED AS MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY FOCUS THAT MOISTURE INTO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT THEN SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTING ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO TRAINING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DECELERATING SURFACE FRONT.
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE COASTAL BEND. BY WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD
BE DRY...AND INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE MAY BE DRY FOR SEVERAL
DAYS THEREAFTER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL UP UNTIL THE FROPA ON
MONDAY...THEN WILL RETREAT TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MAY.

CONTINUING EAST TO SOUTHEAST MARINE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED TIDE
LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WATER LEVELS
LIKELY 1 TO 1 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP RIP CURRENT
RISKS ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  88  76  86  72  /  10  20  10  40  10
VICTORIA          75  85  72  82  69  /  10  30  50  60  20
LAREDO            76  97  74  94  70  /  10  20  20  30  10
ALICE             76  92  75  89  71  /  10  20  20  40  10
ROCKPORT          78  85  76  82  73  /  10  20  20  50  20
COTULLA           73  92  71  91  68  /  10  30  30  30  10
KINGSVILLE        78  91  76  89  72  /  10  20  10  40  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  76  82  74  /  10  20  10  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KHGX 290147
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
847 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SE TEXAS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ABOUT
JACKSON MS TO NEAR WACO TO NEAR DEL RIO. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL PW VALUES NEAR 1.4 INCHES AT CRP AND 1.8
INCHES AT LCH. THE LCH SOUNDING SHOWS MSTR FROM ABOUT 900-700 MB
WHILE THE CRP SHOWS MORE OF A CAP AT 850 MB AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MOIST LAYER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP DOESN`T REALLY START DEVELOPING
UNTIL AFTER 10Z. TRIMMED POPS BACK A LITTLE BUT STILL FEEL SOME
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES. COULD GET SOME STREAMER SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN FOG IN THE WX
GRIDS. MIN TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES NEEDED
THERE. 43



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SE TEXAS
THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT 23Z
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 05Z. IFR LOOKS
LIKELY AFTER 09Z. THE MODELS LIFT THE CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MIDDAY
ON FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ON FRIDAY. BEST CONSENSUS IS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM WHARTON TO HOUSTON TO GROVETON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INCREASING
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURATED SOILS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE INCAPABLE OF ABSORBING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE WATCH
PERIOD ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST EXPANDING EAST
AND NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH COULD DIRECTLY
IMPACT THE AREAS HARDEST HIT BY LAST WEEKS DELUGE. RAINFALL RATES
OF 3" PER HOUR ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM.
NAEFS ENSEMBLES PAINTING A SWATH OF 99TH PERCENTILE OR GREATER IVT
ACROSS THE REGION 00-12Z SATURDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT - LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS OF 75 TO 77 WELL SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WHICH IS NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS OF 18Z.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER SUNSET IN THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH
PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND SUBTLE S/W MOVING THROUGH NE
MEXICO...RAIN RATES SHOULDN`T BE HIGH BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FRIDAY GETS MORE TROUBLESOME WITH MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES AND INITIALLY WAS PLANNING TO ISSUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BEGIN AROUND 6 PM FRIDAY BUT AFTER SEEING THE HIGH
RES ARW AND ECMWF HAVE BEGUN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER TO
AVOID MISSING THE THREAT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ALLUDE TO AN MCS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THOSE SPECIFICS ISN`T VERY HIGH THE
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNFOLDING FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY WITH A STRONG LLJ/MASSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIENTED
THROUGH THE REGION UNDER AN AREA OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE. THINK
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC AREA BUT
THIS PATTERN IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A GOOD DEAL OF DESTABILIZATION 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE RAINFALL RATES AND
INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS OF SEVERE...AND AS WE SAW WITH OUR
EVENT TWO DAYS AGO THE WET GROUND AND STRONG WINDS IS A VERY
DANGEROUS COMBINATION FOR BRINGING DOWN TREES.

AT SOME POINT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY WEAK UPPER RIDGING OCCURS
OVER SETX WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SLOWING AND STALLING (PROBABLY
NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE) WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS TO THE NORTH BUT COULD FOCUS STORMS MORE TOWARD
THE COAST. THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS A PLAYER IN THE WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING-TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS IS GOING TO STRONGLY DEPEND ON HOW
WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE GETS IN PRIOR PERIODS AND RECOVERY OF
LL MOISTURE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
IS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOL AIR OUT INTO THE GULF AND THE REGION
GETTING A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

45

MARINE...
HAVE RAISED CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM TONIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH 7 FEET OR MORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...
AND WE`LL LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THIS BUILDING SURF
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. HIGHEST
TIDE LEVELS SHOULD COME DURING HIGH TIDE TIMES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 87 AND 124 CONNECTION
NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. MARINERS SHOULD STILL PLAN ON PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  71  84  68 /  30  60  80  70  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  87  72  83  70 /  20  40  70  70  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  81  76  80  73 /  10  40  50  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 290147
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
847 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH SE TEXAS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM ABOUT
JACKSON MS TO NEAR WACO TO NEAR DEL RIO. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.
00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL PW VALUES NEAR 1.4 INCHES AT CRP AND 1.8
INCHES AT LCH. THE LCH SOUNDING SHOWS MSTR FROM ABOUT 900-700 MB
WHILE THE CRP SHOWS MORE OF A CAP AT 850 MB AND A MUCH SHALLOWER
MOIST LAYER. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP DOESN`T REALLY START DEVELOPING
UNTIL AFTER 10Z. TRIMMED POPS BACK A LITTLE BUT STILL FEEL SOME
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE CLOSEST TO THE WARM FRONT OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES. COULD GET SOME STREAMER SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE
COAST LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN FOG IN THE WX
GRIDS. MIN TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS LOOK ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES NEEDED
THERE. 43



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SE TEXAS
THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT 23Z
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 05Z. IFR LOOKS
LIKELY AFTER 09Z. THE MODELS LIFT THE CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MIDDAY
ON FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ON FRIDAY. BEST CONSENSUS IS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM WHARTON TO HOUSTON TO GROVETON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INCREASING
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURATED SOILS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE INCAPABLE OF ABSORBING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE WATCH
PERIOD ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST EXPANDING EAST
AND NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH COULD DIRECTLY
IMPACT THE AREAS HARDEST HIT BY LAST WEEKS DELUGE. RAINFALL RATES
OF 3" PER HOUR ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM.
NAEFS ENSEMBLES PAINTING A SWATH OF 99TH PERCENTILE OR GREATER IVT
ACROSS THE REGION 00-12Z SATURDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT - LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS OF 75 TO 77 WELL SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WHICH IS NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS OF 18Z.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER SUNSET IN THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH
PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND SUBTLE S/W MOVING THROUGH NE
MEXICO...RAIN RATES SHOULDN`T BE HIGH BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FRIDAY GETS MORE TROUBLESOME WITH MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES AND INITIALLY WAS PLANNING TO ISSUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BEGIN AROUND 6 PM FRIDAY BUT AFTER SEEING THE HIGH
RES ARW AND ECMWF HAVE BEGUN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER TO
AVOID MISSING THE THREAT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ALLUDE TO AN MCS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THOSE SPECIFICS ISN`T VERY HIGH THE
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNFOLDING FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY WITH A STRONG LLJ/MASSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIENTED
THROUGH THE REGION UNDER AN AREA OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE. THINK
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC AREA BUT
THIS PATTERN IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A GOOD DEAL OF DESTABILIZATION 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE RAINFALL RATES AND
INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS OF SEVERE...AND AS WE SAW WITH OUR
EVENT TWO DAYS AGO THE WET GROUND AND STRONG WINDS IS A VERY
DANGEROUS COMBINATION FOR BRINGING DOWN TREES.

AT SOME POINT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY WEAK UPPER RIDGING OCCURS
OVER SETX WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SLOWING AND STALLING (PROBABLY
NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE) WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS TO THE NORTH BUT COULD FOCUS STORMS MORE TOWARD
THE COAST. THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS A PLAYER IN THE WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING-TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS IS GOING TO STRONGLY DEPEND ON HOW
WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE GETS IN PRIOR PERIODS AND RECOVERY OF
LL MOISTURE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
IS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOL AIR OUT INTO THE GULF AND THE REGION
GETTING A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

45

MARINE...
HAVE RAISED CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM TONIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH 7 FEET OR MORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...
AND WE`LL LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THIS BUILDING SURF
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. HIGHEST
TIDE LEVELS SHOULD COME DURING HIGH TIDE TIMES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 87 AND 124 CONNECTION
NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. MARINERS SHOULD STILL PLAN ON PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  71  84  68 /  30  60  80  70  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  87  72  83  70 /  20  40  70  70  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  81  76  80  73 /  10  40  50  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KCRP 290011 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
711 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LRD TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 08Z. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...TO MVFR /AND POSSIBLE IFR LEVELS FROM
CRP-ALI-VCT/. HZ AND BR DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. A 25-35 KT LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
BUT ELEVATED SFC WINDS SHOULD KEEP LLWS OUT OF THE TAFS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN AROUND 14Z-16Z FROM CRP-ALI-VCT...WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS WITH CIG HEIGHTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OUT WEST AT LRD BY LATE MORNING...AS HIGH-END MVFR CIGS
MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)....HAZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING DUE TO SMOKE FROM MEXICO BEING
USHERED NORTHWARD INTO S TX. A MIX OF HAZE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP
THE AIRMASS MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBY`S GENERALLY ABV 2SM OR BETTER
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
W...MAINLY FOR EARLY EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT CAPPED ACROSS THE N
WITH A MUCH STRONGER CAP FARTHER S INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND SRN
BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE BETTER CHCS FOR
RAIN WILL BE FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A STRONGER UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA AND EJECTS STRONGER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS S TX AND A
DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE W CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE
ENVIRONMENT TO BE VERY UNSTABLE ALONG WITH A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND
DEEPER MOISTURE FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE BEST CHCS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO PROXIMITY OF BETTER DYNAMICS AND
WEAKER CAP. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...FEEL ISOLD PULSE SVR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI. MODELS PROG AN MCS TO DVLP N OF THE AREA THAT
MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE N-NE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. THUS...WENT WITH HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE N FOR 06Z-
12Z SAT MORNING.

AS FOR WINDS...AM EXPECTING THE WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS TOWARD EARLY FRI MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING AT 4
AM FRI MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FRI AFTERNOON...BUT FOR AM GOING WITH
CAUTION.

IN ADDITION...TIDES MAY APPROACH 2FT ABV MSL ONCE AGAIN FRI MORNING
DURING HIGH TIDE. IT WILL BE BORDERLINE BUT MAY SKIRT THE 2FT MARK
AT TIMES FRI MORNING. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH FRI. THEREFORE...EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A STRONG UPPER S/WV
APPROACHES THE REGION. AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING OVER OR NEAR THE NE
COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING...AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THOSE
STORMS MAY SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS. A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT EXISTS AS WELL
GIVEN ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS.

MODELS INITIALLY HAD A NOTICEABLE BREAK BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THAT
DISTINCTION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BLURRED AS MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY FOCUS THAT MOISTURE INTO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT THEN SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTING ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO TRAINING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DECELERATING SURFACE FRONT.
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE COASTAL BEND. BY WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD
BE DRY...AND INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE MAY BE DRY FOR SEVERAL
DAYS THEREAFTER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL UP UNTIL THE FROPA ON
MONDAY...THEN WILL RETREAT TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MAY.

CONTINUING EAST TO SOUTHEAST MARINE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED TIDE
LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WATER LEVELS
LIKELY 1 TO 1 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP RIP CURRENT
RISKS ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  88  76  86  72  /  10  20  10  40  10
VICTORIA          75  85  72  82  69  /  20  30  50  60  20
LAREDO            76  97  74  94  70  /  20  20  20  30  10
ALICE             76  92  75  89  71  /  20  20  20  40  10
ROCKPORT          78  85  76  82  73  /  10  20  20  50  20
COTULLA           73  92  71  91  68  /  20  30  30  30  10
KINGSVILLE        78  91  76  89  72  /  10  20  10  40  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  76  82  74  /  10  20  10  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KSJT 290000 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
700 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Currently clear skies across much of west central Texas, with a
VFR-based cumulus field overspreading the southeastern part of
our area. Low-level moisture surge will result in rapid low
cloud development/expansion northwest across our southern and
central counties between 02Z and 05Z. The low cloud field will
persist overnight, with ceilings mostly in the 1000-1500 ft
range at the TAF sites. Cannot rule out the possibility of IFR
ceilings at times at our southern TAF sites. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop after Midnight, and
to continue into early Friday morning. Carrying VCTS at KABI
08Z-15Z. Gusty southeast winds this evening will veer to the
south overnight.

During the day Friday, a weak Pacific front/dryline will advance
east across west central Texas, and south-southwest winds will
veer to the west with its passage. Carrying VCTS at KABI, KBBD
and KJCT in the morning prior to arrival of the Pacific
front/dryline.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Synoptically, an upper level low is centered over the four
corners area this afternoon with a Pacific front bisecting New
Mexico as it moves to the east. Closer to our CWA, a lee-side low
is over the west-central Panhandle with a warm front running east
from the surface low to just north of DFW. A dryline from the
surface low runs south through the Permian Basin to the eastern
Big Bend region. The GFS is breaking out convective activity along
the dryline early this evening while the NAM is holding off until
later in the evening. In any event, convective coverage over the
forecast area should increase through the overnight hours. The
Pacific front moving into our area from the west will catch the
dryline tomorrow morning with both boundaries moving west to east
across the forecast area through the day tomorrow. By noon
tomorrow precipitation should have ended over the western half of
the CWA with convective activity limited to our eastern tier of
counties by late tomorrow afternoon. A few strong storms will be
possible overnight and into tomorrow, with large hail and damaging
winds being the primary hazards. Significant rainfall totals over
the next 24 hours are not expected. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s and highs tomorrow will be in the mid 80s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

Friday night, a line of showers and thunderstorms should be
exiting the area. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather
associated with this line, with the main hazards being large hail
and damaging winds, but most of the activity is expected to be
east of our area. Will keep a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms generally east of a Brownwood to Junction line for
these storms as they move out of the area, likely before midnight.

Saturday and Sunday, we can expect generally dry conditions. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday, but models are having
a hard time agreeing on the southern progress of the model during
the day on Saturday. With it getting into the warmer part of the
year, will hedge forecast toward a slower solution, and thus
warmer temperatures for the southern half of the CWA Saturday.
Surface high pressure will strengthen Saturday night across the
northern and central plains. This will help push the cold front
through the area completely Saturday night, resulting in cooler
temperatures Sunday, with highs possibly as cool as the upper 60s
for locations north of I-20.

Once the surface high moves into the area Sunday, it is expected
to remain in place through the early part of next week, keeping
cool temperatures going through at least Monday. A weakening
mid/upper level shortwave trough will move out across the
southern plains area Monday, resulting in a chance for showers
and thunderstorms from Sunday evening through Monday as southwest
flow is lifted up and over the top of the relatively cold air at
the surface. Although a few thunderstorms will be probable, severe
weather does not appear to be a concern at this time.

The surface high will begin weakening Tuesday, and upper level
riding will approach from the west, resulting in a warming trend
through the middle of the week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  66  83  55  81 /  40  30  10   5
San Angelo  68  87  55  90 /  30  20  10   5
Junction  69  86  55  89 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 290000 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
700 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Currently clear skies across much of west central Texas, with a
VFR-based cumulus field overspreading the southeastern part of
our area. Low-level moisture surge will result in rapid low
cloud development/expansion northwest across our southern and
central counties between 02Z and 05Z. The low cloud field will
persist overnight, with ceilings mostly in the 1000-1500 ft
range at the TAF sites. Cannot rule out the possibility of IFR
ceilings at times at our southern TAF sites. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop after Midnight, and
to continue into early Friday morning. Carrying VCTS at KABI
08Z-15Z. Gusty southeast winds this evening will veer to the
south overnight.

During the day Friday, a weak Pacific front/dryline will advance
east across west central Texas, and south-southwest winds will
veer to the west with its passage. Carrying VCTS at KABI, KBBD
and KJCT in the morning prior to arrival of the Pacific
front/dryline.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 231 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Synoptically, an upper level low is centered over the four
corners area this afternoon with a Pacific front bisecting New
Mexico as it moves to the east. Closer to our CWA, a lee-side low
is over the west-central Panhandle with a warm front running east
from the surface low to just north of DFW. A dryline from the
surface low runs south through the Permian Basin to the eastern
Big Bend region. The GFS is breaking out convective activity along
the dryline early this evening while the NAM is holding off until
later in the evening. In any event, convective coverage over the
forecast area should increase through the overnight hours. The
Pacific front moving into our area from the west will catch the
dryline tomorrow morning with both boundaries moving west to east
across the forecast area through the day tomorrow. By noon
tomorrow precipitation should have ended over the western half of
the CWA with convective activity limited to our eastern tier of
counties by late tomorrow afternoon. A few strong storms will be
possible overnight and into tomorrow, with large hail and damaging
winds being the primary hazards. Significant rainfall totals over
the next 24 hours are not expected. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s and highs tomorrow will be in the mid 80s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

Friday night, a line of showers and thunderstorms should be
exiting the area. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather
associated with this line, with the main hazards being large hail
and damaging winds, but most of the activity is expected to be
east of our area. Will keep a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms generally east of a Brownwood to Junction line for
these storms as they move out of the area, likely before midnight.

Saturday and Sunday, we can expect generally dry conditions. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday, but models are having
a hard time agreeing on the southern progress of the model during
the day on Saturday. With it getting into the warmer part of the
year, will hedge forecast toward a slower solution, and thus
warmer temperatures for the southern half of the CWA Saturday.
Surface high pressure will strengthen Saturday night across the
northern and central plains. This will help push the cold front
through the area completely Saturday night, resulting in cooler
temperatures Sunday, with highs possibly as cool as the upper 60s
for locations north of I-20.

Once the surface high moves into the area Sunday, it is expected
to remain in place through the early part of next week, keeping
cool temperatures going through at least Monday. A weakening
mid/upper level shortwave trough will move out across the
southern plains area Monday, resulting in a chance for showers
and thunderstorms from Sunday evening through Monday as southwest
flow is lifted up and over the top of the relatively cold air at
the surface. Although a few thunderstorms will be probable, severe
weather does not appear to be a concern at this time.

The surface high will begin weakening Tuesday, and upper level
riding will approach from the west, resulting in a warming trend
through the middle of the week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  66  83  55  81 /  40  30  10   5
San Angelo  68  87  55  90 /  30  20  10   5
Junction  69  86  55  89 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBRO 282358
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
658 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE RETURNED TO BRO AND HRL OVER THE PAST
TWO HOURS AS LOW-LVL CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE GULF ON SE
FLOW...WHICH SHOWS NICELY ON VIS IMAGERY. MFE STILL HANGING ON TO
VFR WITH OVC033 AS OF LAST HOUR.

HAVE CONTINUED TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WITH A FEW TWEAKS
ON TIMING. SHORT-TERM STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO BRO AND HRL AROUND 02-04Z...SO CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH ON THIS. LESS SO AT MFE SO GOING WITH LOW-END MVFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT THERE. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO
KEEP MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. VISIBILITIES MAY VARY SOMEWHAT THRU
THE NEXT 24HR AS VARYING AMTS OF SMOKY HAZE RIDE UP THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING 4-5 MI.

WINDS WILL PICK UP TO BREEZY CATEGORY WITH GUSTS TO 25KT BY LATE
MORNING FRI. 18Z GFS MODEL WINDS SEEM OVERDONE SO WILL LEAN TOWARD
NAM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
FRIDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THAT DEVELOPMENT WILL TIGHTEN UP THE SURFACE PGF...INCREASING SE-S
WINDS TO MODERATE OR BREEZY FROM THE COAST TO THE MID VALLEY ON
FRIDAY

PERSISTENT SE-S LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH 500 MB RIDGING THAT
WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE APRIL. A
DAY IN THE 90S WEST OF I-69E WILL BE ON TAP FRIDAY...WHEN NORMALS
ARE ONLY IN THE 80S.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE RGV AHEAD OF THIS NEXT 500 MB CLOSED
LOW WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONSIDERING THE COMBINATION OF THE FAR
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE
VALUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WILL GO WITH RAIN CHANCES BELOW
MENTIONABLE.

A STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILE AND MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL SUPPORT
BKN TO OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ALSO
TRAP HAZE FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNING TO THE SOUTH...REDUCING VSBY
SLIGHTLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE
70S...HIGHER THAN THE NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S.

THE LATEST TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY`S (TCEQ`S) AIR
QUALITY INDEX (AQI) PLACES THE RGV IN THE CATEGORY OF "UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS" DUE TO THE ONGOING AGRICULTURAL FIRES BURNING
ACROSS MUCH OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SE-S LOW LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND...PUSHING SMOKE AND HAZE OVER THE RGV AND
DEGRADING AIR QUALITY. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF HAZE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HAZE WILL MIX WITH SEA AIR AT NIGHT...AS FOG
FORMATION TAKES PLACE DUE TO THE LOWER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/....A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
ABOVE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES ON THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AT LEAST UP TO 850MB OVER THE REGION. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND MID
VALLEY BUT LESS OF A CHANCE IN THE LOWER VALLEY. AS THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LAYERS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA WHILE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER LAYERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH BELOW 850 MB AVERAGE OF 70 TO 80
PERCENT WHICH COULD INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
LINE WILL BEGIN TO SET UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SIERRA
MADRE OVER MX ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE MON OVER S TEXAS AS A
PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN WED ANOTHER
INFLUX OF MOISTURE OVER MEXICO WILL TRAVEL EAST ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS DIFFER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT. GFS 12Z MODEL RUN SHOWS A DELAY WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. EVENTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA FROM MON THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL INTERACT WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
RESULTING IN HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW...FRIDAY...WITH
MORNING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN SEVEN FEET OR
ABOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST SATURDAY ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. EXPECT SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 5 TO 6 FEET AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT WINDS WILL BE MORE EASTERLY
TO SE. SCEC CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF SATURDAY.
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
MONDAY WILL ENHANCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

53-SCHROEDER/61




000
FXUS64 KBRO 282358
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
658 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE RETURNED TO BRO AND HRL OVER THE PAST
TWO HOURS AS LOW-LVL CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE GULF ON SE
FLOW...WHICH SHOWS NICELY ON VIS IMAGERY. MFE STILL HANGING ON TO
VFR WITH OVC033 AS OF LAST HOUR.

HAVE CONTINUED TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WITH A FEW TWEAKS
ON TIMING. SHORT-TERM STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO BRO AND HRL AROUND 02-04Z...SO CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY HIGH ON THIS. LESS SO AT MFE SO GOING WITH LOW-END MVFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT THERE. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO
KEEP MUCH FOG FROM FORMING. VISIBILITIES MAY VARY SOMEWHAT THRU
THE NEXT 24HR AS VARYING AMTS OF SMOKY HAZE RIDE UP THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING 4-5 MI.

WINDS WILL PICK UP TO BREEZY CATEGORY WITH GUSTS TO 25KT BY LATE
MORNING FRI. 18Z GFS MODEL WINDS SEEM OVERDONE SO WILL LEAN TOWARD
NAM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
FRIDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THAT DEVELOPMENT WILL TIGHTEN UP THE SURFACE PGF...INCREASING SE-S
WINDS TO MODERATE OR BREEZY FROM THE COAST TO THE MID VALLEY ON
FRIDAY

PERSISTENT SE-S LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH 500 MB RIDGING THAT
WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE APRIL. A
DAY IN THE 90S WEST OF I-69E WILL BE ON TAP FRIDAY...WHEN NORMALS
ARE ONLY IN THE 80S.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE RGV AHEAD OF THIS NEXT 500 MB CLOSED
LOW WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONSIDERING THE COMBINATION OF THE FAR
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE
VALUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WILL GO WITH RAIN CHANCES BELOW
MENTIONABLE.

A STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILE AND MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL SUPPORT
BKN TO OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ALSO
TRAP HAZE FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNING TO THE SOUTH...REDUCING VSBY
SLIGHTLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE
70S...HIGHER THAN THE NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S.

THE LATEST TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY`S (TCEQ`S) AIR
QUALITY INDEX (AQI) PLACES THE RGV IN THE CATEGORY OF "UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS" DUE TO THE ONGOING AGRICULTURAL FIRES BURNING
ACROSS MUCH OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SE-S LOW LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND...PUSHING SMOKE AND HAZE OVER THE RGV AND
DEGRADING AIR QUALITY. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF HAZE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HAZE WILL MIX WITH SEA AIR AT NIGHT...AS FOG
FORMATION TAKES PLACE DUE TO THE LOWER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/....A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
ABOVE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES ON THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AT LEAST UP TO 850MB OVER THE REGION. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND MID
VALLEY BUT LESS OF A CHANCE IN THE LOWER VALLEY. AS THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LAYERS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA WHILE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER LAYERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH BELOW 850 MB AVERAGE OF 70 TO 80
PERCENT WHICH COULD INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
LINE WILL BEGIN TO SET UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SIERRA
MADRE OVER MX ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE MON OVER S TEXAS AS A
PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN WED ANOTHER
INFLUX OF MOISTURE OVER MEXICO WILL TRAVEL EAST ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS DIFFER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT. GFS 12Z MODEL RUN SHOWS A DELAY WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. EVENTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA FROM MON THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL INTERACT WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
RESULTING IN HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW...FRIDAY...WITH
MORNING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN SEVEN FEET OR
ABOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST SATURDAY ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. EXPECT SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 5 TO 6 FEET AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT WINDS WILL BE MORE EASTERLY
TO SE. SCEC CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF SATURDAY.
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
MONDAY WILL ENHANCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

53-SCHROEDER/61




000
FXUS64 KEWX 282357
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
657 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD...
ISOLATED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VC OF KAUS FOR FIRST FEW
HOURS OF TAF PERIOD. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL HOWEVER. FARTHER SOUTH...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EVEN
MORE ISOLATED SO DID NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS REACHING
TERMINALS FOR KSAT OR KSSF. MVFR AT KSAT/KSSF WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
HAS INDICATED LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAT/KSSF IN THE EARLY MORNING BUT
LEFT THIS OUT FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO INCLUDE IN 06Z PACKAGE IF LATER
MODEL RUNS TREND FURTHER TOWARDS LIFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
28/12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH A DRYLINE OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THIS FRONT HAS MANAGED
TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...WHILE THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED
WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION.

CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN A BIT STUBBORN TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
HAS LEFT A ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THIS
EXTRA HEATING COULD AIR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL THINK THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL HANG
TOUGH AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD
ANY STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. WE COULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS VAL VERDE AND EDWARDS COUNTIES WHERE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION. WE/LL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO DEL RIO
LINE.

LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE
LOCATED BETWEEN ONE UPPER JET TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE SUBTROPICAL
JET OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WITH A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT...WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO MIX EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE HI-RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE TEXAS-TECH WRF...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
FOR TOMORROW GIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE FOCUS FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES TO THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES BECOME
A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
FAIRLY GOOD ON MONDAY AND IF THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT...WE WILL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN LATER
FORECASTS. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  84  68  88  64 /  30  60  50  30  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  84  68  86  64 /  30  60  60  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  85  68  87  65 /  30  60  60  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  82  63  87  60 /  30  60  40  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  90  62  90  65 /  30  20  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  83  66  86  61 /  30  60  50  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  86  66  90  66 /  30  50  50  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  68  85  65 /  30  60  60  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  85  71  83  68 /  30  50  70  60  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  85  69  88  66 /  30  50  50  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  87  70  88  67 /  30  50  50  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY




000
FXUS64 KAMA 282353
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
653 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTHEAST AND EAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN MOISTURE
SUPPLY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TERMINALS WILL BE
SPARED FROM STRONGEST CONVECTION IN THE NEAR TERM.  AS LOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY.  CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT CLEARING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT KDHT AND KAMA AS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH...WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN ITS WAKE.  KGUY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR OR MVFR THROUGH END OF FORECAST.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-27
CORRIDOR. EARLIER THINKING HAS CHANGED LITTLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT (1000-1500 MLCAPE ON MESOANALYSIS). EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT (50-55 KNOTS) FOR STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THIS THREAT
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THE
WINDOW FOR A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD MOST LIKELY BE BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 PM AND 10 PM WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND 0-1 KM
HELICITY INCREASES TO AROUND 150-200 M2/S2...BUT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. AFTERWARDS THE THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LASTING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS CONVECTION MOVES NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED.

A PEAK AT WHAT IS IN SO FAR FROM THE SPECIAL 21Z SOUNDING REVEALS
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1.5 KM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING ABOVE THIS YIELDING 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF AROUND
150 M2/S2. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN A SHALLOWER NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AS WELL AS
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND MARGINAL LCL HEIGHTS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE VWP AND MODIFY THE SOUNDING AS
SURFACE OBS CHANGE/MOISTURE INCREASES. ALSO NOTED IN THE FIRST
GLANCE OF THE SOUNDING IS THAT 100 MB ML PARCELS REMAINED SLIGHTLY
CAPPED. THIS CAN BE EASILY BE OVERCOME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTENING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL UPDATE WITH ANY PERTINENT
INFORMATION FROM THE COMPLETED 21Z SOUNDING AND/OR OTHER
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AS NECESSARY.

BRB

SHORT TERM...
SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FROM BRB.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER FRIDAY AND CONTINUE SLIDING EAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND PUT THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION...THUS
CAUSING SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. THE MID LEVELS WILL SEE DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND THUS ALLOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING AT THESE LEVELS FOR
STORMS THAT FORM. THIS WILL CREATE MORE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGER HAIL AS DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE COOLER AND SLOW MELTING. CONFIDENCE
ON THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS NOT VERY HIGH ON THIS OUTCOME AS THE
SCENARIO OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BEING SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE SEEMS JUST AS PLAUSIBLE. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY SINCE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL
LIKELY PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN THE OUTCOME. IF THE LATTER OPTION DOES
PLAY OUT...FORECASTED TEMPS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED AS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE FIRST LOW MOVE NORTH TO
KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING WILL BE LOST. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PANHANDLES A CHANCE TO DRY OUT A BIT AND SEE SOME SUN.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY BEFORE A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH DROPPED INTO THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT MONDAY AND BEYOND ON
TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW...HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE THAT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER DRY SPELL AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

BEAT

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  70  42  66  42 /  60  30  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  51  58  42  62  39 /  80  70  30   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              44  54  34  58  35 /  80  70  20  10  20
BORGER TX                  55  68  46  66  45 /  70  50  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              49  70  40  65  41 /  50  30  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  50  72  39  67  41 /  50  20  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               54  74  45  69  45 /  60  40  10   5   5
DALHART TX                 47  62  37  62  38 /  60  40  20  10  20
GUYMON OK                  48  56  41  62  41 /  80  70  30   5  10
HEREFORD TX                46  73  40  68  41 /  40  20   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                53  62  45  65  43 /  70  70  20   5   5
PAMPA TX                   53  67  44  64  43 /  70  50  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                56  73  47  70  46 /  60  50  10   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              58  78  48  73  47 /  70  50  10   5   5

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO NEAR
THE RED RIVER. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN LAPS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS IS NOTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE WEST AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST RAPID LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A
CONSENSUS INDICATING MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS REACHING WELL INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW TO MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS ALREADY AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS CHILDRESS AND MATADOR. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK IF NOT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND BEHAVIOR OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

DEEP MIXING AND SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
OUR AREA SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN EARLIER THOUGHT BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND THE FIRST ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WE HAVE MADE IS TO
ADD PRECIPITATION TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE COVERGENT AND MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR MOVING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVELY NARROW LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP FROM NEAR OR SOUTH OF
DALHART TO THE AMARILLO AREA AND EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING DRYLINE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO THIS EVENING. TWO CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE 1.) INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET CONTRIBUTING TO
STRENGTHENING 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 25 KNOTS (THERE IS
QUITE A SPREAD IN 850 MB SPEEDS AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE) AND 2.) CONTINUED MOISTENING RESULTING IN
LCL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 1KM...POSSIBLY LOWER.

WE WILL PROVIDE AN UPDATED DISCUSSION FOCUSING ON SEVERE POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE FURTHER ANALYSIS IS COMPLETED AND AS WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. A SPECIAL 21Z SOUNDING IS BEING
CONSIDERED. WE ARE PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS LATER TODAY AND MAY BE ABLE TO CAPTURE THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SUFFICIENTLY WITH THE 00Z SOUNDING. SO AN EARLIER
SOUNDING MAY BE OF LITTLE VALUE.

CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OCCURS ATOP THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER ARIZONA. ASCENT IS STRONGEST AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT VALUES ARE LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST
LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT SO THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LATE INTO THE NIGHT. ANY SURFACE
BASED STORMS AND WIND/TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND BEFORE DECOUPLING INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER WHICH THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
HAIL.

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  70  42  66  42 /  60  30  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  51  58  42  62  39 /  80  70  30   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              44  54  34  58  35 /  80  70  20  10  20
BORGER TX                  55  68  46  66  45 /  70  50  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              49  70  40  65  41 /  50  30  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  50  72  39  67  41 /  50  20  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               54  74  45  69  45 /  60  40  10   5   5
DALHART TX                 47  62  37  62  38 /  60  40  20  10  20
GUYMON OK                  48  56  41  62  41 /  80  70  30   5  10
HEREFORD TX                46  73  40  68  41 /  40  20   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                53  62  45  65  43 /  70  70  20   5   5
PAMPA TX                   53  67  44  64  43 /  70  50  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                56  73  47  70  46 /  60  50  10   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              58  78  48  73  47 /  70  50  10   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10




000
FXUS64 KAMA 282353
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
653 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTHEAST AND EAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN MOISTURE
SUPPLY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TERMINALS WILL BE
SPARED FROM STRONGEST CONVECTION IN THE NEAR TERM.  AS LOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY.  CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT CLEARING WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT KDHT AND KAMA AS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH...WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN ITS WAKE.  KGUY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR OR MVFR THROUGH END OF FORECAST.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-27
CORRIDOR. EARLIER THINKING HAS CHANGED LITTLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT (1000-1500 MLCAPE ON MESOANALYSIS). EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT (50-55 KNOTS) FOR STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THIS THREAT
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THE
WINDOW FOR A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD MOST LIKELY BE BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 PM AND 10 PM WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND 0-1 KM
HELICITY INCREASES TO AROUND 150-200 M2/S2...BUT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. AFTERWARDS THE THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LASTING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS CONVECTION MOVES NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED.

A PEAK AT WHAT IS IN SO FAR FROM THE SPECIAL 21Z SOUNDING REVEALS
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1.5 KM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING ABOVE THIS YIELDING 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF AROUND
150 M2/S2. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN A SHALLOWER NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AS WELL AS
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND MARGINAL LCL HEIGHTS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE VWP AND MODIFY THE SOUNDING AS
SURFACE OBS CHANGE/MOISTURE INCREASES. ALSO NOTED IN THE FIRST
GLANCE OF THE SOUNDING IS THAT 100 MB ML PARCELS REMAINED SLIGHTLY
CAPPED. THIS CAN BE EASILY BE OVERCOME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTENING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL UPDATE WITH ANY PERTINENT
INFORMATION FROM THE COMPLETED 21Z SOUNDING AND/OR OTHER
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AS NECESSARY.

BRB

SHORT TERM...
SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FROM BRB.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER FRIDAY AND CONTINUE SLIDING EAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND PUT THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION...THUS
CAUSING SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. THE MID LEVELS WILL SEE DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND THUS ALLOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING AT THESE LEVELS FOR
STORMS THAT FORM. THIS WILL CREATE MORE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGER HAIL AS DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE COOLER AND SLOW MELTING. CONFIDENCE
ON THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS NOT VERY HIGH ON THIS OUTCOME AS THE
SCENARIO OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BEING SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE SEEMS JUST AS PLAUSIBLE. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY SINCE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL
LIKELY PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN THE OUTCOME. IF THE LATTER OPTION DOES
PLAY OUT...FORECASTED TEMPS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED AS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE FIRST LOW MOVE NORTH TO
KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING WILL BE LOST. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PANHANDLES A CHANCE TO DRY OUT A BIT AND SEE SOME SUN.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY BEFORE A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH DROPPED INTO THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT MONDAY AND BEYOND ON
TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW...HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE THAT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER DRY SPELL AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

BEAT

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  70  42  66  42 /  60  30  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  51  58  42  62  39 /  80  70  30   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              44  54  34  58  35 /  80  70  20  10  20
BORGER TX                  55  68  46  66  45 /  70  50  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              49  70  40  65  41 /  50  30  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  50  72  39  67  41 /  50  20  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               54  74  45  69  45 /  60  40  10   5   5
DALHART TX                 47  62  37  62  38 /  60  40  20  10  20
GUYMON OK                  48  56  41  62  41 /  80  70  30   5  10
HEREFORD TX                46  73  40  68  41 /  40  20   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                53  62  45  65  43 /  70  70  20   5   5
PAMPA TX                   53  67  44  64  43 /  70  50  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                56  73  47  70  46 /  60  50  10   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              58  78  48  73  47 /  70  50  10   5   5

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO NEAR
THE RED RIVER. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN LAPS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS IS NOTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE WEST AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST RAPID LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A
CONSENSUS INDICATING MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS REACHING WELL INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW TO MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS ALREADY AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS CHILDRESS AND MATADOR. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK IF NOT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND BEHAVIOR OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

DEEP MIXING AND SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
OUR AREA SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN EARLIER THOUGHT BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND THE FIRST ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WE HAVE MADE IS TO
ADD PRECIPITATION TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE COVERGENT AND MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR MOVING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVELY NARROW LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP FROM NEAR OR SOUTH OF
DALHART TO THE AMARILLO AREA AND EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING DRYLINE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO THIS EVENING. TWO CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE 1.) INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET CONTRIBUTING TO
STRENGTHENING 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 25 KNOTS (THERE IS
QUITE A SPREAD IN 850 MB SPEEDS AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE) AND 2.) CONTINUED MOISTENING RESULTING IN
LCL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 1KM...POSSIBLY LOWER.

WE WILL PROVIDE AN UPDATED DISCUSSION FOCUSING ON SEVERE POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE FURTHER ANALYSIS IS COMPLETED AND AS WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. A SPECIAL 21Z SOUNDING IS BEING
CONSIDERED. WE ARE PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS LATER TODAY AND MAY BE ABLE TO CAPTURE THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SUFFICIENTLY WITH THE 00Z SOUNDING. SO AN EARLIER
SOUNDING MAY BE OF LITTLE VALUE.

CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OCCURS ATOP THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER ARIZONA. ASCENT IS STRONGEST AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT VALUES ARE LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST
LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT SO THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LATE INTO THE NIGHT. ANY SURFACE
BASED STORMS AND WIND/TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND BEFORE DECOUPLING INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER WHICH THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
HAIL.

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  70  42  66  42 /  60  30  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  51  58  42  62  39 /  80  70  30   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              44  54  34  58  35 /  80  70  20  10  20
BORGER TX                  55  68  46  66  45 /  70  50  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              49  70  40  65  41 /  50  30  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  50  72  39  67  41 /  50  20  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               54  74  45  69  45 /  60  40  10   5   5
DALHART TX                 47  62  37  62  38 /  60  40  20  10  20
GUYMON OK                  48  56  41  62  41 /  80  70  30   5  10
HEREFORD TX                46  73  40  68  41 /  40  20   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                53  62  45  65  43 /  70  70  20   5   5
PAMPA TX                   53  67  44  64  43 /  70  50  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                56  73  47  70  46 /  60  50  10   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              58  78  48  73  47 /  70  50  10   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10




000
FXUS64 KLUB 282342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
KCDS WILL BE UNDER THE THREAT OF SEVERE T-STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 01
UTC. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 06 UTC. THEN...A LINE OF T-STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 10 OR 11 UTC. LOW CEILINGS...MVFR OR
IFR...MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KCDS...WHILE GUSTY
SW BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP AT KPVW AND KLBB BY MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THETA-E AXIS
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE US-87 I-27 CORRIDOR THENCE CURVING BACK
A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD DIMMITT. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT
FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND ENHANCE RISK OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES RAMP UP SHARPLY
FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE. THREAT OF
BASEBALLS/70MPH/TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. OVERALL A
GUARDED VIGILANCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
RELIEVING THE AREA OF DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
FRONT COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO
INITIATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOWARDS
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. HOWEVER...STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES GIVEN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERHEAD.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT COUPLED AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH MAY AGAIN BRING IN SOME CONVECTION FROM
THE WEST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SHORT WAVE SO
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN THE CASCADES AND SIERRA
NEVADA RANGES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE UPPER FLOW LOCALLY TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN US NEXT WEEK BUT BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WE WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER COOL EASTERLY FLOW TO START OFF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UNSEASONABLY COOL KEEPING PROSPECTS OF SEVERE STORMS LOW. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM EXITS...WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 282342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
KCDS WILL BE UNDER THE THREAT OF SEVERE T-STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 01
UTC. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 06 UTC. THEN...A LINE OF T-STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 10 OR 11 UTC. LOW CEILINGS...MVFR OR
IFR...MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KCDS...WHILE GUSTY
SW BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP AT KPVW AND KLBB BY MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THETA-E AXIS
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE US-87 I-27 CORRIDOR THENCE CURVING BACK
A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD DIMMITT. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT
FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND ENHANCE RISK OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES RAMP UP SHARPLY
FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE. THREAT OF
BASEBALLS/70MPH/TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. OVERALL A
GUARDED VIGILANCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
RELIEVING THE AREA OF DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
FRONT COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO
INITIATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOWARDS
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. HOWEVER...STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES GIVEN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERHEAD.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT COUPLED AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH MAY AGAIN BRING IN SOME CONVECTION FROM
THE WEST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SHORT WAVE SO
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN THE CASCADES AND SIERRA
NEVADA RANGES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE UPPER FLOW LOCALLY TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN US NEXT WEEK BUT BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WE WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER COOL EASTERLY FLOW TO START OFF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UNSEASONABLY COOL KEEPING PROSPECTS OF SEVERE STORMS LOW. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM EXITS...WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33




000
FXUS64 KMAF 282327
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds along and east of the dryline will be elevated and gusty
out of southeast whereas winds to the west of this line will
decrease in strength later this evening. There is a chance of
storms along and east of this dryline but do not have enough
confidence to put into the TAFs at this time. Winds will become
elevated and gusty out of the west by 15z as the dryline moves to
the east of all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 215 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough digging over the Four Corners
region this afternoon. This has led to increasing SW flow aloft and
the development of a surface low over E NM. Moisture has begun to
surge back west across the area in response to height falls
associated with the upper trough. A sharpening dryline may be a
focus for a few showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon
across the eastern half of the Permian Basin. The best chance for
storms comes later tonight as the dryline retreats west and large
scale lift arrives with the upper trough. Storms are expected to
develop across the western Permian Basin where a Pacific front
will combine with the dryline and move back east across the region
overnight. Some of these storms may be severe with large hail and
damaging winds given steepening lapse rates and an increasing LLJ.

These storms move east quickly Friday morning with windy, dry
conditions filling in across the region Friday afternoon. The base
of the upper trough will graze our area similar to the system this
past Tuesday. Strong westerly winds will mix to the surface,
especially across the higher terrain and adjacent plains. Will
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning across the Guadalupe
Mountains. Strong winds are also possible east of the mountains so a
Winds Advisory may be issued on later shifts.

Another upper trough will drop south across Nevada and Arizona
Saturday helping to again draw moisture back west across Texas. At
the same time, a strong cold front will move south across the area
Sunday. Showers and storms are expected to increase along and behind
the front Sunday and Monday as the upper trough approaches.
Temperatures look to cool significantly behind the front due to the
widespread clouds and precip. It is possible many locations may drop
into the 50`s Sunday afternoon and stay there trough Monday! We will
continue to monitor the forecast and make changes if needed.

An upper ridge builds in behind this system, but temperatures stay
cool through midweek before rebounding to near normal late next
week.

FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and dry conditions continue to reside across the area and
with an upper trough to the west there are increasing winds too.
The warm, dry and unstable conditions are reflected in a moderate
Haines Index of 5 and the RFW continues across the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico. Critical fire weather concerns
will expand on Friday to reach farther south into the Davis Mtns
and east into the western PB. Temps will cool, but winds will be
stronger Friday. The Trans Pecos and southeast NM plains continue
to undergo substantial drying and are at or very near the 90th
percentile using ERC-G from TAMFS and certainly supports critical
fire weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  83  50  79 /  40  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       54  80  49  83 /  10  10   0  10
Dryden                         66  93  59  91 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  59  84  54  86 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 51  69  49  74 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          50  76  46  77 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                          44  75  39  77 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           62  83  53  84 /  40  10  10   0
Odessa                         62  83  55  84 /  30  10   0   0
Wink                           56  85  51  87 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Friday for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/




000
FXUS64 KHGX 282319
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
619 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SE TEXAS
THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT 23Z
AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 05Z. IFR LOOKS
LIKELY AFTER 09Z. THE MODELS LIFT THE CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MIDDAY
ON FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ON FRIDAY. BEST CONSENSUS IS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM WHARTON TO HOUSTON TO GROVETON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INCREASING
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURATED SOILS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE INCAPABLE OF ABSORBING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE WATCH
PERIOD ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST EXPANDING EAST
AND NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH COULD DIRECTLY
IMPACT THE AREAS HARDEST HIT BY LAST WEEKS DELUGE. RAINFALL RATES
OF 3" PER HOUR ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM.
NAEFS ENSEMBLES PAINTING A SWATH OF 99TH PERCENTILE OR GREATER IVT
ACROSS THE REGION 00-12Z SATURDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT - LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS OF 75 TO 77 WELL SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WHICH IS NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS OF 18Z.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER SUNSET IN THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH
PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND SUBTLE S/W MOVING THROUGH NE
MEXICO...RAIN RATES SHOULDN`T BE HIGH BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FRIDAY GETS MORE TROUBLESOME WITH MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES AND INITIALLY WAS PLANNING TO ISSUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BEGIN AROUND 6 PM FRIDAY BUT AFTER SEEING THE HIGH
RES ARW AND ECMWF HAVE BEGUN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER TO
AVOID MISSING THE THREAT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ALLUDE TO AN MCS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THOSE SPECIFICS ISN`T VERY HIGH THE
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNFOLDING FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY WITH A STRONG LLJ/MASSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIENTED
THROUGH THE REGION UNDER AN AREA OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE. THINK
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC AREA BUT
THIS PATTERN IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A GOOD DEAL OF DESTABILIZATION 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE RAINFALL RATES AND
INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS OF SEVERE...AND AS WE SAW WITH OUR
EVENT TWO DAYS AGO THE WET GROUND AND STRONG WINDS IS A VERY
DANGEROUS COMBINATION FOR BRINGING DOWN TREES.

AT SOME POINT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY WEAK UPPER RIDGING OCCURS
OVER SETX WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SLOWING AND STALLING (PROBABLY
NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE) WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS TO THE NORTH BUT COULD FOCUS STORMS MORE TOWARD
THE COAST. THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS A PLAYER IN THE WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING-TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS IS GOING TO STRONGLY DEPEND ON HOW
WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE GETS IN PRIOR PERIODS AND RECOVERY OF
LL MOISTURE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
IS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOL AIR OUT INTO THE GULF AND THE REGION
GETTING A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

45

MARINE...
HAVE RAISED CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM TONIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH 7 FEET OR MORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...
AND WE`LL LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THIS BUILDING SURF
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. HIGHEST
TIDE LEVELS SHOULD COME DURING HIGH TIDE TIMES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 87 AND 124 CONNECTION
NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. MARINERS SHOULD STILL PLAN ON PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  71  84  68 /  50  60  80  70  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  87  72  83  70 /  20  40  70  70  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  81  76  80  73 /  10  40  50  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KAMA 282143
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
443 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-27
CORRIDOR. EARLIER THINKING HAS CHANGED LITTLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT (1000-1500 MLCAPE ON MESOANALYSIS). EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT (50-55 KNOTS) FOR STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THIS THREAT
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THE
WINDOW FOR A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD MOST LIKELY BE BETWEEN
ABOUT 6 PM AND 10 PM WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND 0-1 KM
HELICITY INCREASES TO AROUND 150-200 M2/S2...BUT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. AFTERWARDS THE THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LASTING FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS CONVECTION MOVES NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED.

A PEAK AT WHAT IS IN SO FAR FROM THE SPECIAL 21Z SOUNDING REVEALS
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1.5 KM WITH
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING ABOVE THIS YIELDING 0-3KM SRH VALUES OF AROUND
150 M2/S2. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN A SHALLOWER NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AS WELL AS
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND MARGINAL LCL HEIGHTS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE VWP AND MODIFY THE SOUNDING AS
SURFACE OBS CHANGE/MOISTURE INCREASES. ALSO NOTED IN THE FIRST
GLANCE OF THE SOUNDING IS THAT 100 MB ML PARCELS REMAINED SLIGHTLY
CAPPED. THIS CAN BE EASILY BE OVERCOME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTENING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WE WILL UPDATE WITH ANY PERTINENT
INFORMATION FROM THE COMPLETED 21Z SOUNDING AND/OR OTHER
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AS NECESSARY.

BRB

SHORT TERM...
SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FROM BRB.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER FRIDAY AND CONTINUE SLIDING EAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND PUT THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION...THUS
CAUSING SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. THE MID LEVELS WILL SEE DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND THUS ALLOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING AT THESE LEVELS FOR
STORMS THAT FORM. THIS WILL CREATE MORE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGER HAIL AS DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE COOLER AND SLOW MELTING. CONFIDENCE
ON THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS NOT VERY HIGH ON THIS OUTCOME AS THE
SCENARIO OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BEING SOCKED IN WITH LOW STRATUS
AND DRIZZLE SEEMS JUST AS PLAUSIBLE. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY SINCE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL
LIKELY PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN THE OUTCOME. IF THE LATTER OPTION DOES
PLAY OUT...FORECASTED TEMPS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED AS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY WILL SEE THE FIRST LOW MOVE NORTH TO
KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING WILL BE LOST. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PANHANDLES A CHANCE TO DRY OUT A BIT AND SEE SOME SUN.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY BEFORE A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH DROPPED INTO THE GREAT BASIN STARTS TO EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT MONDAY AND BEYOND ON
TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW...HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE THAT
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER DRY SPELL AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

BEAT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  70  42  66  42 /  60  30  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  51  58  42  62  39 /  80  70  30   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              44  54  34  58  35 /  80  70  20  10  20
BORGER TX                  55  68  46  66  45 /  70  50  10   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              49  70  40  65  41 /  50  30  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  50  72  39  67  41 /  50  20  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               54  74  45  69  45 /  60  40  10   5   5
DALHART TX                 47  62  37  62  38 /  60  40  20  10  20
GUYMON OK                  48  56  41  62  41 /  80  70  30   5  10
HEREFORD TX                46  73  40  68  41 /  40  20   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                53  62  45  65  43 /  70  70  20   5   5
PAMPA TX                   53  67  44  64  43 /  70  50  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                56  73  47  70  46 /  60  50  10   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              58  78  48  73  47 /  70  50  10   5   5

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO NEAR
THE RED RIVER. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN LAPS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS IS NOTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE WEST AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST RAPID LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A
CONSENSUS INDICATING MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS REACHING WELL INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW TO MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS ALREADY AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS CHILDRESS AND MATADOR. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK IF NOT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND BEHAVIOR OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

DEEP MIXING AND SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
OUR AREA SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN EARLIER THOUGHT BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND THE FIRST ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WE HAVE MADE IS TO
ADD PRECIPITATION TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE COVERGENT AND MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR MOVING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVELY NARROW LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP FROM NEAR OR SOUTH OF
DALHART TO THE AMARILLO AREA AND EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING DRYLINE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO THIS EVENING. TWO CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE 1.) INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET CONTRIBUTING TO
STRENGTHENING 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 25 KNOTS (THERE IS
QUITE A SPREAD IN 850 MB SPEEDS AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE) AND 2.) CONTINUED MOISTENING RESULTING IN
LCL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 1KM...POSSIBLY LOWER.

WE WILL PROVIDE AN UPDATED DISCUSSION FOCUSING ON SEVERE POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE FURTHER ANALYSIS IS COMPLETED AND AS WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. A SPECIAL 21Z SOUNDING IS BEING
CONSIDERED. WE ARE PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS LATER TODAY AND MAY BE ABLE TO CAPTURE THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SUFFICIENTLY WITH THE 00Z SOUNDING. SO AN EARLIER
SOUNDING MAY BE OF LITTLE VALUE.

CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OCCURS ATOP THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER ARIZONA. ASCENT IS STRONGEST AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT VALUES ARE LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST
LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT SO THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LATE INTO THE NIGHT. ANY SURFACE
BASED STORMS AND WIND/TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND BEFORE DECOUPLING INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER WHICH THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
HAIL.

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/16




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282050
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
250 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER IN A PROLONGED SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS...PRESENTLY
LOCATED OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE THE BORDERLAND WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL ROTATE DOWN ON ITS BACK
SIDE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST...AND MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF
GRANT...SIERRA AND NORTHERN OTERO COUNTIES. LIGHTER WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE BORDERLAND ON THE HEALS OF EASTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIGHTER WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. OUR WEATHER MAY START TO GET A
BIT UNSETTLED AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT PRESENTLY LOCATED BY SIM
OVER NW ARIZONA CONTINUES ON TRACK PER FORECAST MODELS. ALL THREE
MODELS (NAM GFS EURO) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...IN FACT THE GFS AND
EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT 216 HOURS. AGAIN THE PRIMARY IMPACT
WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND THE ATTENDANT BLOWING DUST MAINLY INTO
THRUSDAY EVENING. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL GRADIENTS WERE STRONG
ENOUGH TOGETHER WITH THE HEATING TODAY GIVING DEEP MIXING TO
14KFT MSL. THUS WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE WITH SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED PARTICULARLY ALONG EAST
SLOPES. SATELLITE SHOWS WIND MAX DIGGING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF
THE LOW TO PUT MAX WINDS OVERHEAD SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...ITS
PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE BORDERLAND FRIDAY MORNING
WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS FOLLOWING BY MIDDAY. WINDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STRONG AND TURN WESTERLY AND EASE OFF ON THE BLOWING DUST
SOMEWHAT. A SPOKE OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO MOVE DOWN THE UPPER
LOW`S BACK SIDE FRIDAY AND MAY BRING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE CWA MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF A
SVC- ALM LINE. TEMPS WILL COOL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES AND RUN AROUND
5-8 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

BOTH GFS AND EURO MODELS SUGGEST A COOL MOIST AIR MASS CHANGE FROM
THE EAST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS TURNS WINDS EASTERLY AND TAPS GULF
MOISTURE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE SHOULD STAY IN THE DRIER  AIRMASS
WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT THIS TIME. THUS FOR AT LEAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...A SLIGHT RISK OF PCPN/STORMS WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY FOR OVER
HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. A NICE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST
OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINING LIGHTER WINDS AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

FINALLY IN THIS SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING SEQUENCE OF PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEMS...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO FORECAST A MASSIVE UA LOW INTO THEGREAT
BASIN BY NEXT FRIDAY. THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO MOVE IT
FARTHER NORTH...BUT ITS WAVELENGTH IS QUITE LARGE (LAS- AMA) SO IT
WILL HAVE WEATHER IMPLICATIONS (AT LEAST AT THIS TIME) FOR THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A QUICK LOOK AT THE H7 TEMPS FOR OUR AREA NEST
SATURDAY/SUNDAY SHOWED TEMPS FROM 0 TO -3C...SUGGESTING
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL SEE AS WE HAVE A WEEK
TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS.


&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z-30/00Z.
P6SM SKC-FEW120 THRU MUCH OF PD. SW WINDS OF 20-30G40KTS AND
AREAS OF 1-3SM BLDU WILL DECREASE TO BETWEEN 02Z-05Z TO AOB
12KTS EXCEPT ON ERN MTN SLOPES WHERE WINDS WILL STAY STRONG THRU
AT LEAST 09Z. W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN 15Z-18Z TO
15-25G35KTS WITH PATCHY AREAS OF 3-5SM BLDU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
STARTING TO DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO
KEEP CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME AREAS
OVER HUDSPETH AND SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTIES. AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA MOUNTAINS AND AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S OVER THE LOWLANDS BY WEDNESDAY BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 56  75  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           53  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              50  70  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              50  72  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              36  48  34  54 /   0  10  20   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   48  68  44  75 /   0  10  20   0
SILVER CITY             41  60  40  70 /   0  10  10   0
DEMING                  46  70  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               43  67  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      57  74  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               52  75  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            54  77  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  69  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  56  76  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            52  73  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  70  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           46  70  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   46  71  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                48  72  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               52  71  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 42  58  39  63 /   0   0  20  10
MESCALERO               41  58  38  64 /   0  10  10  10
TIMBERON                40  57  39  63 /   0   0  20   0
WINSTON                 37  60  37  67 /   0  10  20   0
HILLSBORO               43  66  43  73 /   0  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               48  70  45  76 /   0   0  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            35  62  35  68 /   0  10  10   0
HURLEY                  41  62  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   38  66  37  75 /   0  10  10   0
MULE CREEK              36  63  35  73 /   0  10  10   0
FAYWOOD                 42  65  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  45  69  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 45  69  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  70  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              44  66  44  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ404-411-
     413.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ111>113.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418-419.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418-419.

&&

$$

20/26 NOVLAN / GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282050
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
250 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER IN A PROLONGED SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS...PRESENTLY
LOCATED OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE THE BORDERLAND WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL ROTATE DOWN ON ITS BACK
SIDE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST...AND MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS OF
GRANT...SIERRA AND NORTHERN OTERO COUNTIES. LIGHTER WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE BORDERLAND ON THE HEALS OF EASTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIGHTER WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. OUR WEATHER MAY START TO GET A
BIT UNSETTLED AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT PRESENTLY LOCATED BY SIM
OVER NW ARIZONA CONTINUES ON TRACK PER FORECAST MODELS. ALL THREE
MODELS (NAM GFS EURO) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...IN FACT THE GFS AND
EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT 216 HOURS. AGAIN THE PRIMARY IMPACT
WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND THE ATTENDANT BLOWING DUST MAINLY INTO
THRUSDAY EVENING. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL GRADIENTS WERE STRONG
ENOUGH TOGETHER WITH THE HEATING TODAY GIVING DEEP MIXING TO
14KFT MSL. THUS WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE WITH SOME
ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED PARTICULARLY ALONG EAST
SLOPES. SATELLITE SHOWS WIND MAX DIGGING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF
THE LOW TO PUT MAX WINDS OVERHEAD SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...ITS
PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE BORDERLAND FRIDAY MORNING
WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS FOLLOWING BY MIDDAY. WINDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STRONG AND TURN WESTERLY AND EASE OFF ON THE BLOWING DUST
SOMEWHAT. A SPOKE OF ENERGY IS FORECAST TO MOVE DOWN THE UPPER
LOW`S BACK SIDE FRIDAY AND MAY BRING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE CWA MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF A
SVC- ALM LINE. TEMPS WILL COOL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES AND RUN AROUND
5-8 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

BOTH GFS AND EURO MODELS SUGGEST A COOL MOIST AIR MASS CHANGE FROM
THE EAST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS TURNS WINDS EASTERLY AND TAPS GULF
MOISTURE OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE SHOULD STAY IN THE DRIER  AIRMASS
WITH WESTERLY WINDS AT THIS TIME. THUS FOR AT LEAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...A SLIGHT RISK OF PCPN/STORMS WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY FOR OVER
HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. A NICE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST
OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINING LIGHTER WINDS AND
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

FINALLY IN THIS SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING SEQUENCE OF PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEMS...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO FORECAST A MASSIVE UA LOW INTO THEGREAT
BASIN BY NEXT FRIDAY. THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO MOVE IT
FARTHER NORTH...BUT ITS WAVELENGTH IS QUITE LARGE (LAS- AMA) SO IT
WILL HAVE WEATHER IMPLICATIONS (AT LEAST AT THIS TIME) FOR THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A QUICK LOOK AT THE H7 TEMPS FOR OUR AREA NEST
SATURDAY/SUNDAY SHOWED TEMPS FROM 0 TO -3C...SUGGESTING
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL SEE AS WE HAVE A WEEK
TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS.


&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z-30/00Z.
P6SM SKC-FEW120 THRU MUCH OF PD. SW WINDS OF 20-30G40KTS AND
AREAS OF 1-3SM BLDU WILL DECREASE TO BETWEEN 02Z-05Z TO AOB
12KTS EXCEPT ON ERN MTN SLOPES WHERE WINDS WILL STAY STRONG THRU
AT LEAST 09Z. W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BETWEEN 15Z-18Z TO
15-25G35KTS WITH PATCHY AREAS OF 3-5SM BLDU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
STARTING TO DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO
KEEP CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME AREAS
OVER HUDSPETH AND SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTIES. AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA MOUNTAINS AND AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S OVER THE LOWLANDS BY WEDNESDAY BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 56  75  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           53  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              50  70  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              50  72  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              36  48  34  54 /   0  10  20   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   48  68  44  75 /   0  10  20   0
SILVER CITY             41  60  40  70 /   0  10  10   0
DEMING                  46  70  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               43  67  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      57  74  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               52  75  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            54  77  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  69  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  56  76  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            52  73  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  70  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           46  70  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   46  71  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                48  72  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               52  71  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 42  58  39  63 /   0   0  20  10
MESCALERO               41  58  38  64 /   0  10  10  10
TIMBERON                40  57  39  63 /   0   0  20   0
WINSTON                 37  60  37  67 /   0  10  20   0
HILLSBORO               43  66  43  73 /   0  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               48  70  45  76 /   0   0  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            35  62  35  68 /   0  10  10   0
HURLEY                  41  62  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   38  66  37  75 /   0  10  10   0
MULE CREEK              36  63  35  73 /   0  10  10   0
FAYWOOD                 42  65  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  45  69  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 45  69  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  70  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              44  66  44  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ404-411-
     413.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ111>113.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418-419.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418-419.

&&

$$

20/26 NOVLAN / GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KEWX 282040
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
340 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
28/12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH A DRYLINE OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THIS FRONT HAS MANAGED
TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...WHILE THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED
WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION.

CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN A BIT STUBBORN TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
HAS LEFT A ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THIS
EXTRA HEATING COULD AIR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL THINK THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL HANG
TOUGH AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD
ANY STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. WE COULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS VAL VERDE AND EDWARDS COUNTIES WHERE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME CONVECTION. WE/LL
CONTINUE TO MENTION A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO DEL RIO
LINE.

LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE
LOCATED BETWEEN ONE UPPER JET TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE SUBTROPICAL
JET OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WITH A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT...WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO MIX EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE HI-RES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE TEXAS-TECH WRF...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
FOR TOMORROW GIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY. AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A TORNADO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY...THE FOCUS FOR RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES TO THE RIO GRANDE AND COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES BECOME
A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
FAIRLY GOOD ON MONDAY AND IF THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT...WE WILL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN LATER
FORECASTS. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  84  68  88  64 /  30  60  50  30  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  84  68  86  64 /  30  60  60  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  85  68  87  65 /  30  60  60  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  82  63  87  60 /  30  60  40  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  90  62  90  65 /  30  20  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  83  66  86  61 /  30  60  50  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  86  66  90  66 /  30  50  50  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  84  68  85  65 /  30  60  60  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  85  71  83  68 /  30  50  70  60  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  85  69  88  66 /  30  50  50  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  87  70  88  67 /  30  50  50  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KFWD 282034
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
334 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN A NICE DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BUT CHANGES
ARE ON THE WAY AS A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS HEADS BACK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW WITH
A NOTEWORTHY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THAT COULD END UP BEING
SIGNIFICANT IF MESOSCALE FEATURES EVOLVE AS DISCUSSED BELOW.

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT THE RICH MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THAT
WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. WARM FRONTS ARE NOT
SURPRISINGLY ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION...AND WARM ADVECTION
IS OFTEN SYNONYMOUS WITH LIFTING OR RISING AIR. AS THIS WARM AND
MOIST AIR ENTERS THE CWA...IT WILL BE UNDERCUTTING A COLDER
AIRMASS ALOFT WHICH WILL YIELD HIGH AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY THAT
WILL BE UNCAPPED. THE WARM ADVECTION ITSELF WILL BE PROVIDING THE
LIFT FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO BLOSSOM. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
WIND OR TORNADO POTENTIAL DESPITE WELL ORGANIZED AND IMPRESSIVE
SHEAR PROFILES. HOWEVER THESE STORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS FOR THE STRONGEST
CELLS. THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND MID EVENING...WITH STORMS MOVING
NORTHWARD AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THE TIME
THEY REACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS OF
60-70 PERCENT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...WITH POPS JUST 30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT ON WHETHER THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP/PERSIST OVER THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AM SIDING WITH THE RAP/HRRR/TTU
WRF FORECASTS WHICH KICK THE WARM FRONT AND STORMS NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER BY DAY BREAK. THIS IS BECAUSE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
THE LOW-MID LEVELS SHOULD ALSO PULL SOME WARMER AIR IN FROM SOUTH
TEXAS WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP THE CWA FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WELL SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS
CAP IS NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY STRONG BY ANY OF THE MODELS...AND
AS TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY MIDDAY FRIDAY IT
SHOULD BREAK.

WHILE A DRY LINE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND REACHES OUR
WESTERN CWA BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT
CONVECTION WILL SPONTANEOUSLY DEVELOP WELL EAST OF THE DRY LINE IN
AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDDAY. THIS IS ADVERTISED BY
SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS...AND ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
DROPPING THE HIGHEST QPF AND UPWARD MOTIONS EAST OF I-35 BETWEEN
18Z-00Z. THUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL NOT NEED
THE DRY LINE OR PEAK DAY TIME HEATING TO DEVELOP. IN SHORT THIS
EVENT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE THE TYPICAL DRYLINE DAY
WHERE WE WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FOR STORMS TO FIRE OUT WEST.

INSTEAD THE INITIATION OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR COULD LEAD TO
NUMEROUS STORMS IF THE CAP IS TOO WEAK AND PERHAPS A MESSY
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THAT DOES NOT LET ANY ONE STORM HAVE ALL OF
THE INSTABILITY TO THEMSELVES. THIS WOULD LOWER THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER IF CONVECTION IS NOT AS NUMEROUS THERE
IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING
GIVEN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3500 J/KG
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING IN THE
PRESENCE OF WELL ORGANIZED SHEAR PROFILES...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO BE CONCERNED
ABOUT TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UNUSUALLY HIGH LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY COMPLEMENTS OF LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. FURTHERMORE IF
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY AS
EXPECTED...IT IS LIKELY TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME REGION WITH JUST A
GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT. THIS COULD LEAD TO EXCESSIVE MULTI-INCH
RAINFALL IN LOCALIZED AREAS. SINCE THIS FLOODING POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE FEATURES DEVELOPING IN THE RIGHT
PLACE AND TIME...WE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE BEST TO LET LATER SHIFTS
MAKE THE CALL WHETHER TO INCLUDE PART OF THE AREA IN A WATCH.

BELIEVE THAT FRIDAY/S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND LIKELY INTO EAST TEXAS
BY MIDNIGHT. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT
WILL SET UP EAST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY WHICH MEANS ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE REGION.
HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES IN CASE THE
FRONT/DRY LINE SETS UP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE FRONT/DRY LINE OVER MOST OF THE AREA IT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO THIS WILL ASSUREDLY RESULT IN A SUNNY AND NICE DAY
SUNDAY WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG BUT
WILL OCCUR ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WILL SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEST TO MID
70S EAST.

FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STRING A FEW DRY AND PLEASANT DAYS TOGETHER.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 80 WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 118 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
/18Z TAFS/

VFR WITH SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 03Z. CHALLENGES
ARRIVE AFTERWARD WITH REGARD TO TIMING CIGS/CONVECTION THROUGH
12Z. WAA AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT AND LEAD SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED-SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME WINDOW BETWEEN 03Z-09Z...WHEN THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A 30-40 KT LLJ. WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING FAIRLY DISCRETE...WE WILL ONLY INTRODUCE
VCTS IN THE FCST AT ALL NORTH TX AIRPORTS DURING THIS 6-HR WINDOW.
BEST WAA AND POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO OK/AR BY 12Z AND
AFTER.

WE DO LOOK FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD 12Z-18Z FRIDAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. IN ADDITION...
WAA WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AND
LIMIT ARRIVALS TO AREA AIRPORTS WITH SE WINDS 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY
PREVAILING.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES IN THE 18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME... WITH A DRYLINE
MOVING CLOSE TO...OR INTO WESTERN NORTH TX. MORE NUMEROUS SHRA AND
TSRA WILL DEVELOP AND RACE NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A
FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AIRPORTS BY NIGHTFALL FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE ADDED A 24-30 HR
PERIOD BEGINNING AT 20Z FRIDAY TO INTRODUCE VCTS AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS NORTH TX FOR DFW AIRPORT.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    70  81  64  86  58 /  60  80  50  10   5
WACO                71  82  64  87  58 /  40  80  50  10  10
PARIS               64  78  65  83  57 /  70  90  80  30  10
DENTON              66  79  59  86  54 /  60  80  50  10   5
MCKINNEY            67  79  61  84  55 /  70  80  60  10  10
DALLAS              70  81  65  86  59 /  60  80  60  10  10
TERRELL             69  81  66  85  58 /  70  80  70  20  10
CORSICANA           71  83  66  86  61 /  40  80  70  20  10
TEMPLE              72  82  64  88  59 /  30  70  60  20  10
MINERAL WELLS       66  81  56  85  54 /  50  60  30   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 282026
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM WHARTON TO HOUSTON TO GROVETON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT INCREASING
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURATED SOILS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE INCAPABLE OF ABSORBING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE WATCH
PERIOD ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST EXPANDING EAST
AND NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH COULD DIRECTLY
IMPACT THE AREAS HARDEST HIT BY LAST WEEKS DELUGE. RAINFALL RATES
OF 3" PER HOUR ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM.
NAEFS ENSEMBLES PAINTING A SWATH OF 99TH PERCENTILE OR GREATER IVT
ACROSS THE REGION 00-12Z SATURDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT - LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS OF 75 TO 77 WELL SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WHICH IS NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS OF 18Z.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER SUNSET IN THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH
PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND SUBTLE S/W MOVING THROUGH NE
MEXICO...RAIN RATES SHOULDN`T BE HIGH BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FRIDAY GETS MORE TROUBLESOME WITH MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES AND INITIALLY WAS PLANNING TO ISSUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BEGIN AROUND 6 PM FRIDAY BUT AFTER SEEING THE HIGH
RES ARW AND ECMWF HAVE BEGUN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER TO
AVOID MISSING THE THREAT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ALLUDE TO AN MCS
DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THOSE SPECIFICS ISN`T VERY HIGH THE
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL UNFOLDING FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY WITH A STRONG LLJ/MASSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIENTED
THROUGH THE REGION UNDER AN AREA OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE. THINK
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PINPOINT ANY SPECIFIC AREA BUT
THIS PATTERN IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW
A GOOD DEAL OF DESTABILIZATION 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE RAINFALL RATES AND
INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS OF SEVERE...AND AS WE SAW WITH OUR
EVENT TWO DAYS AGO THE WET GROUND AND STRONG WINDS IS A VERY
DANGEROUS COMBINATION FOR BRINGING DOWN TREES.

AT SOME POINT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY WEAK UPPER RIDGING OCCURS
OVER SETX WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SLOWING AND STALLING (PROBABLY
NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE) WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS TO THE NORTH BUT COULD FOCUS STORMS MORE TOWARD
THE COAST. THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS A PLAYER IN THE WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING-TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THIS IS GOING TO STRONGLY DEPEND ON HOW
WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE GETS IN PRIOR PERIODS AND RECOVERY OF
LL MOISTURE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
IS A STRONGER PUSH OF COOL AIR OUT INTO THE GULF AND THE REGION
GETTING A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

45

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE RAISED CAUTION FLAGS FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS BEGINNING AT
6 PM TONIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH 7 FEET OR MORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...
AND WE`LL LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THIS BUILDING SURF
WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS. HIGHEST
TIDE LEVELS SHOULD COME DURING HIGH TIDE TIMES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 87 AND 124 CONNECTION
NEAR THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA. MARINERS SHOULD STILL PLAN ON PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  71  84  68 /  50  60  80  70  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  87  72  83  70 /  20  40  70  70  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  81  76  80  73 /  10  40  50  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
     MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KCRP 282009
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
309 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)....HAZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING DUE TO SMOKE FROM MEXICO BEING
USHERED NORTHWARD INTO S TX. A MIX OF HAZE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP
THE AIRMASS MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBY`S GENERALLY ABV 2SM OR BETTER
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
W...MAINLY FOR EARLY EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT CAPPED ACROSS THE N
WITH A MUCH STRONGER CAP FARTHER S INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND SRN
BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE BETTER CHCS FOR
RAIN WILL BE FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A STRONGER UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA AND EJECTS STRONGER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS S TX AND A
DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE W CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE
ENVIRONMENT TO BE VERY UNSTABLE ALONG WITH A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND
DEEPER MOISTURE FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE BEST CHCS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO PROXIMITY OF BETTER DYNAMICS AND
WEAKER CAP. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...FEEL ISOLD PULSE SVR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI. MODELS PROG AN MCS TO DVLP N OF THE AREA THAT
MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE N-NE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. THUS...WENT WITH HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE N FOR 06Z-
12Z SAT MORNING.

AS FOR WINDS...AM EXPECTING THE WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS TOWARD EARLY FRI MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING AT 4
AM FRI MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FRI AFTERNOON...BUT FOR AM GOING WITH
CAUTION.

IN ADDITION...TIDES MAY APPROACH 2FT ABV MSL ONCE AGAIN FRI MORNING
DURING HIGH TIDE. IT WILL BE BORDERLINE BUT MAY SKIRT THE 2FT MARK
AT TIMES FRI MORNING. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH FRI. THEREFORE...EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A STRONG UPPER S/WV
APPROACHES THE REGION. AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING OVER OR NEAR THE NE
COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING...AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THOSE
STORMS MAY SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS. A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT EXISTS AS WELL
GIVEN ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS.

MODELS INITIALLY HAD A NOTICEABLE BREAK BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THAT
DISTINCTION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BLURRED AS MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY FOCUS THAT MOISTURE INTO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT THEN SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTING ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO TRAINING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DECELERATING SURFACE FRONT.
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE COASTAL BEND. BY WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD
BE DRY...AND INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE MAY BE DRY FOR SEVERAL
DAYS THEREAFTER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL UP UNTIL THE FROPA ON
MONDAY...THEN WILL RETREAT TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MAY.

CONTINUING EAST TO SOUTHEAST MARINE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED TIDE
LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WATER LEVELS
LIKELY 1 TO 1 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP RIP CURRENT
RISKS ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  88  76  86  72  /  10  20  10  40  10
VICTORIA          75  85  72  82  69  /  20  30  50  60  20
LAREDO            76  97  74  94  70  /  20  20  20  30  10
ALICE             76  92  75  89  71  /  20  20  20  40  10
ROCKPORT          78  85  76  82  73  /  10  20  20  50  20
COTULLA           73  92  71  91  68  /  20  30  30  30  10
KINGSVILLE        78  91  76  89  72  /  10  20  10  40  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  76  82  74  /  10  20  10  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KBRO 282001
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
301 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
FRIDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THAT DEVELOPMENT WILL TIGHTEN UP THE SURFACE PGF...INCREASING SE-S
WINDS TO MODERATE OR BREEZY FROM THE COAST TO THE MID VALLEY ON
FRIDAY

PERSISTENT SE-S LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH 500 MB RIDGING THAT
WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE APRIL. A
DAY IN THE 90S WEST OF I-69E WILL BE ON TAP FRIDAY...WHEN NORMALS
ARE ONLY IN THE 80S.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE RGV AHEAD OF THIS NEXT 500 MB CLOSED
LOW WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONSIDERING THE COMBINATION OF THE FAR
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE
VALUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WILL GO WITH RAIN CHANCES BELOW
MENTIONABLE.

A STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILE AND MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL SUPPORT
BKN TO OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ALSO
TRAP HAZE FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNING TO THE SOUTH...REDUCING VSBY
SLIGHTLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE
70S...HIGHER THAN THE NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S.

THE LATEST TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY`S (TCEQ`S) AIR
QUALITY INDEX (AQI) PLACES THE RGV IN THE CATEGORY OF "UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS" DUE TO THE ONGOING AGRICULTURAL FIRES BURNING
ACROSS MUCH OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SE-S LOW LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY...WITH LIGHTER
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND...PUSHING SMOKE AND HAZE OVER THE RGV AND
DEGRADING AIR QUALITY. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF HAZE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HAZE WILL MIX WITH SEA AIR AT NIGHT...AS FOG
FORMATION TAKES PLACE DUE TO THE LOWER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD.


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/....A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
ABOVE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES ON THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN
INCREASE OF MOISTURE AT LEAST UP TO 850MB OVER THE REGION. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND MID
VALLEY BUT LESS OF A CHANCE IN THE LOWER VALLEY. AS THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS
WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LAYERS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA WHILE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER LAYERS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH BELOW 850 MB AVERAGE OF 70 TO 80
PERCENT WHICH COULD INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
LINE WILL BEGIN TO SET UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SIERRA
MADRE OVER MX ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE MON OVER S TEXAS AS A
PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN WED ANOTHER
INFLUX OF MOISTURE OVER MEXICO WILL TRAVEL EAST ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA.

MODELS DIFFER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT. GFS 12Z MODEL RUN SHOWS A DELAY WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. EVENTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA FROM MON THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL INTERACT WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
RESULTING IN HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW...FRIDAY...WITH
MORNING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN SEVEN FEET OR
ABOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST SATURDAY ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. EXPECT SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 5 TO 6 FEET AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT WINDS WILL BE MORE EASTERLY
TO SE. SCEC CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF SATURDAY.
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
MONDAY WILL ENHANCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  88  77  89 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  89  78  90 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            78  92  77  94 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              77  95  77  96 /  10  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  98  76  97 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  84  77  83 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/67




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281942
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THETA-E AXIS
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE US-87 I-27 CORRIDOR THENCE CURVING BACK
A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD DIMMITT. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT
FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND ENHANCE RISK OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES RAMP UP SHARPLY
FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE. THREAT OF
BASEBALLS/70MPH/TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. OVERALL A
GUARDED VIGILANCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
RELIEVING THE AREA OF DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
FRONT COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO
INITIATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOWARDS
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. HOWEVER...STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES GIVEN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERHEAD.


ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT COUPLED AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH MAY AGAIN BRING IN SOME CONVECTION FROM
THE WEST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SHORT WAVE SO
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN THE CASCADES AND SIERRA
NEVADA RANGES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE UPPER FLOW LOCALLY TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN US NEXT WEEK BUT BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WE WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER COOL EASTERLY FLOW TO START OFF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UNSEASONABLY COOL KEEPING PROSPECTS OF SEVERE STORMS LOW. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM EXITS...WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/01




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281942
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THETA-E AXIS
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE US-87 I-27 CORRIDOR THENCE CURVING BACK
A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD DIMMITT. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT
FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND ENHANCE RISK OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES RAMP UP SHARPLY
FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE. THREAT OF
BASEBALLS/70MPH/TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. OVERALL A
GUARDED VIGILANCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
RELIEVING THE AREA OF DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
FRONT COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO
INITIATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOWARDS
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. HOWEVER...STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES GIVEN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERHEAD.


ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT COUPLED AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH MAY AGAIN BRING IN SOME CONVECTION FROM
THE WEST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SHORT WAVE SO
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN THE CASCADES AND SIERRA
NEVADA RANGES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE UPPER FLOW LOCALLY TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN US NEXT WEEK BUT BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WE WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER COOL EASTERLY FLOW TO START OFF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UNSEASONABLY COOL KEEPING PROSPECTS OF SEVERE STORMS LOW. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM EXITS...WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/01




000
FXUS64 KSJT 281931
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
231 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Synoptically, an upper level low is centered over the four
corners area this afternoon with a Pacific front bisecting New
Mexico as it moves to the east. Closer to our CWA, a lee-side low
is over the west-central Panhandle with a warm front running east
from the surface low to just north of DFW. A dryline from the
surface low runs south through the Permian Basin to the eastern
Big Bend region. The GFS is breaking out convective activity along
the dryline early this evening while the NAM is holding off until
later in the evening. In any event, convective coverage over the
forecast area should increase through the overnight hours. The
Pacific front moving into our area from the west will catch the
dryline tomorrow morning with both boundaries moving west to east
across the forecast area through the day tomorrow. By noon
tomorrow precipitation should have ended over the western half of
the CWA with convective activity limited to our eastern tier of
counties by late tomorrow afternoon. A few strong storms will be
possible overnight and into tomorrow, with large hail and damaging
winds being the primary hazards. Significant rainfall totals over
the next 24 hours are not expected. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s and highs tomorrow will be in the mid 80s.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

Friday night, a line of showers and thunderstorms should be
exiting the area. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather
associated with this line, with the main hazards being large hail
and damaging winds, but most of the activity is expected to be
east of our area. Will keep a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms generally east of a Brownwood to Junction line for
these storms as they move out of the area, likely before midnight.

Saturday and Sunday, we can expect generally dry conditions. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday, but models are having
a hard time agreeing on the southern progress of the model during
the day on Saturday. With it getting into the warmer part of the
year, will hedge forecast toward a slower solution, and thus
warmer temperatures for the southern half of the CWA Saturday.
Surface high pressure will strengthen Saturday night across the
northern and central plains. This will help push the cold front
through the area completely Saturday night, resulting in cooler
temperatures Sunday, with highs possibly as cool as the upper 60s
for locations north of I-20.

Once the surface high moves into the area Sunday, it is expected
to remain in place through the early part of next week, keeping
cool temperatures going through at least Monday. A weakening
mid/upper level shortwave trough will move out across the
southern plains area Monday, resulting in a chance for showers
and thunderstorms from Sunday evening through Monday as southwest
flow is lifted up and over the top of the relatively cold air at
the surface. Although a few thunderstorms will be probable, severe
weather does not appear to be a concern at this time.

The surface high will begin weakening Tuesday, and upper level
riding will approach from the west, resulting in a warming trend
through the middle of the week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  66  83  55  81 /  40  30  10   5
San Angelo  68  87  55  85 /  30  20  10   5
Junction  69  86  55  87 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 281931
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
231 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Synoptically, an upper level low is centered over the four
corners area this afternoon with a Pacific front bisecting New
Mexico as it moves to the east. Closer to our CWA, a lee-side low
is over the west-central Panhandle with a warm front running east
from the surface low to just north of DFW. A dryline from the
surface low runs south through the Permian Basin to the eastern
Big Bend region. The GFS is breaking out convective activity along
the dryline early this evening while the NAM is holding off until
later in the evening. In any event, convective coverage over the
forecast area should increase through the overnight hours. The
Pacific front moving into our area from the west will catch the
dryline tomorrow morning with both boundaries moving west to east
across the forecast area through the day tomorrow. By noon
tomorrow precipitation should have ended over the western half of
the CWA with convective activity limited to our eastern tier of
counties by late tomorrow afternoon. A few strong storms will be
possible overnight and into tomorrow, with large hail and damaging
winds being the primary hazards. Significant rainfall totals over
the next 24 hours are not expected. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s and highs tomorrow will be in the mid 80s.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

Friday night, a line of showers and thunderstorms should be
exiting the area. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather
associated with this line, with the main hazards being large hail
and damaging winds, but most of the activity is expected to be
east of our area. Will keep a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms generally east of a Brownwood to Junction line for
these storms as they move out of the area, likely before midnight.

Saturday and Sunday, we can expect generally dry conditions. A
cold front will move into the area Saturday, but models are having
a hard time agreeing on the southern progress of the model during
the day on Saturday. With it getting into the warmer part of the
year, will hedge forecast toward a slower solution, and thus
warmer temperatures for the southern half of the CWA Saturday.
Surface high pressure will strengthen Saturday night across the
northern and central plains. This will help push the cold front
through the area completely Saturday night, resulting in cooler
temperatures Sunday, with highs possibly as cool as the upper 60s
for locations north of I-20.

Once the surface high moves into the area Sunday, it is expected
to remain in place through the early part of next week, keeping
cool temperatures going through at least Monday. A weakening
mid/upper level shortwave trough will move out across the
southern plains area Monday, resulting in a chance for showers
and thunderstorms from Sunday evening through Monday as southwest
flow is lifted up and over the top of the relatively cold air at
the surface. Although a few thunderstorms will be probable, severe
weather does not appear to be a concern at this time.

The surface high will begin weakening Tuesday, and upper level
riding will approach from the west, resulting in a warming trend
through the middle of the week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  66  83  55  81 /  40  30  10   5
San Angelo  68  87  55  85 /  30  20  10   5
Junction  69  86  55  87 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 281915
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
215 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough digging over the Four Corners
region this afternoon. This has led to increasing SW flow aloft and
the development of a surface low over E NM. Moisture has begun to
surge back west across the area in response to height falls
associated with the upper trough. A sharpening dryline may be a
focus for a few showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon
across the eastern half of the Permian Basin. The best chance for
storms comes later tonight as the dryline retreats west and large
scale lift arrives with the upper trough. Storms are expected to
develop across the western Permian Basin where a Pacific front
will combine with the dryline and move back east across the region
overnight. Some of these storms may be severe with large hail and
damaging winds given steepening lapse rates and an increasing LLJ.

These storms move east quickly Friday morning with windy, dry
conditions filling in across the region Friday afternoon. The base
of the upper trough will graze our area similar to the system this
past Tuesday. Strong westerly winds will mix to the surface,
especially across the higher terrain and adjacent plains. Will
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a warning across the Guadalupe
Mountains. Strong winds are also possible east of the mountains so a
Winds Advisory may be issued on later shifts.

Another upper trough will drop south across Nevada and Arizona
Saturday helping to again draw moisture back west across Texas. At
the same time, a strong cold front will move south across the area
Sunday. Showers and storms are expected to increase along and behind
the front Sunday and Monday as the upper trough approaches.
Temperatures look to cool significantly behind the front due to the
widespread clouds and precip. It is possible many locations may drop
into the 50`s Sunday afternoon and stay there trough Monday! We will
continue to monitor the forecast and make changes if needed.

An upper ridge builds in behind this system, but temperatures stay
cool through midweek before rebounding to near normal late next
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and dry conditions continue to reside across the area and
with an upper trough to the west there are increasing winds too.
The warm, dry and unstable conditions are reflected in a moderate
Haines Index of 5 and the RFW continues across the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico. Critical fire weather concerns
will expand on Friday to reach farther south into the Davis Mtns
and east into the western PB. Temps will cool, but winds will be
stronger Friday. The Trans Pecos and southeast NM plains continue
to undergo substantial drying and are at or very near the 90th
percentile using ERC-G from TAMFS and certainly supports critical
fire weather.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  83  50  79 /  40  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       54  80  49  83 /  10  10   0  10
Dryden                         66  93  59  91 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  59  84  54  86 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 51  69  49  74 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          50  76  46  77 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                          44  75  39  77 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           62  83  53  84 /  40  10  10   0
Odessa                         62  83  55  84 /  30  10   0   0
Wink                           56  85  51  87 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Friday for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Friday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

49/29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281908
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
208 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z-21Z INVOF KLBB/KPVW
AND MOVE NE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TOWARD KCDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND WIDE
BERTH SHOULD BE GIVEN AS STRONG DOWNBURST POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONTINGENT ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.UPDATE...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THETA-E AXIS
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE US-87 I-27 CORRIDOR THENCE CURVING BACK
A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD DIMMITT. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT
FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND ENHANCE RISK OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES RAMP UP SHARPLY
FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE. THREAT OF
BASEBALLS/70MPH/TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. OVERALL A
GUARDED VIGILANCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR TS AT KCDS AROUND 00Z
WITH EXPECTATION OF ISO TO SCT STORMS INITIATING SW OF KCDS AND
EAST OF KLBB AND KPVW. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IF STORMS WILL AFFECT
KCDS ATTM SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
KPVW AND KCDS AFTER 06Z WILL SUPPORT A TEMPO MENTION IN BOTH THOSE
TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO SRN
CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE 4-CORNERS BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SFC WILL SEE THE DRYLINE SHIFT EWD TO OR JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 21Z. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S
POISED JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA...BUT RICHER
MOISTURE IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF SAN ANTONIO. SOME OF THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO OFFSET SOME MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING.
00Z WRF-NAM THE MOST EXTREME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AND THUS WITH CAPE VALUES /EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG AT 00Z/ WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MORE MEASURED AND ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AT THAT
SAME TIME. ATTM TEND TO PREFER THE LATTER VALUES WHICH STILL
CERTAINLY LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE
ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT IS PROGGED TO INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE
AROUND 21Z. FORCING AT THAT TIME OF THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
SO 20-30 PCT POPS SHOULD HANDLE PERIOD OF INITIATION...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOVING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE CONVECTION MATURES. ALSO
EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE DRYLINE PUSH QUICKLY WWD WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POISED TO BE WORKED ON BY GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW THAT WILL STILL BE HEADED EWD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY INITIATING WEST OF I-27 AFTER 06Z. FOCUS
OF LIFT WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...BUT SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME ATTEMPTS TO BUILD SWD INTO LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
SECOND ROUND ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH HEALTHY
AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE PROGGED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
WHAT LINGERING STORMS REMAIN BY 12Z FRIDAY SHOULD MAKE AMPLE
STRIDES NEWD AND OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL JET STREAK AND PRONOUNCED DRYING/SUBSIDENCE. AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO...THE AXIS OF A 70+ KNOT 500
MB JET CORE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SERVE TO ACCELERATE
THE DRYLINE EASTWARD. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM A.M. PRECIP SHOULD EASILY
BE SCOURED OUT UNDER DRY SLOTTING AND ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH LOOKS TO RESIDE IN OUR
NERN COUNTIES BY MIDDAY. THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS DOES
LOOK RATHER SMALL IN THIS AREA PARTICULARLY WITH THE DRYLINE
SPEEDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WINDOW IS
STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW POPS BEFORE THE DRYLINE DEPARTS FOR
GOOD BEFORE 00Z. ATTM...THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IN THE SERN
PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS IS PRETTY NARROW IN TIME AND
SPACE GIVEN UTTERLY BONKERS BUNKERS STORM MOTIONS OF 50 KNOTS AND
A SPEEDY DRYLINE. THIS MOTION WOULD DISPLACE MOST STORM EMBRYOS
OUT OF OUR CWA IN RAPID FASHION BEFORE CELLS CAN FULLY MATURE
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. ON A RELATED NOTE...MOS AND SUPERBLEND WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TOO CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS POST-DRYLINE PATTERN UNDER A
STRONG JET MAXIMUM...SO HAVE NUDGED THESE VALUES UP INTO THE 25-30
MPH TERRITORY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.

ASIDE FROM SOME RESIDUAL COLD POCKET AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
IN NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE...A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRI NIGHT FROM THE NW ALL THE WHILE THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
STACKED AND NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR GOODLAND KANSAS. THIS FRONT
SHOULD SLOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL TO OUR S-W ALL IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW BY SUNDAY.
THIS BROAD POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN UNDER SLOW RE-MOISTENING
ALOFT IN SW FLOW TENDS TO FAVOR PRECIP MOSTLY IN NM THIS WEEKEND...
BUT WE HAVE RETAINED SOME LOW CHANCE MENTION IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES
FOR ANY ERRANT HIGH PLAINS DRIFTERS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PROGGED TO PEAK SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEW UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST...ALTHOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THIS LOW IS ONE OF A
WEAKENING THEME BY THIS POINT WHICH RAISES SOME CONCERN OVER THE
QUALITY OF SATURATED DEPTHS AND PWAT VALUES. AT THE VERY LEAST...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY SAT NIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THEREAFTER COULD MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO MAY
WITH MONDAY SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE PROVIDED SHOWERS PAN OUT AS
ADVERTISED. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW THEN UNFOLDS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE SPANNING THE FULL EXTENT OF
THE CANADIAN AND U.S. ROCKIES. PATTERN WISE...THESE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGES TEND TO BE A BIT MORE RESILIENT THAN MODELS INDICATE WHICH
COULD PROLONG TUESDAY/S DRYING ALL THE WAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
REGIONAL SEVERE WX PATTERN LOOKS TO UNFOLD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/26




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281908
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
208 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z-21Z INVOF KLBB/KPVW
AND MOVE NE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TOWARD KCDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND WIDE
BERTH SHOULD BE GIVEN AS STRONG DOWNBURST POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONTINGENT ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.UPDATE...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THETA-E AXIS
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE US-87 I-27 CORRIDOR THENCE CURVING BACK
A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD DIMMITT. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT
FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND ENHANCE RISK OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES RAMP UP SHARPLY
FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE. THREAT OF
BASEBALLS/70MPH/TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. OVERALL A
GUARDED VIGILANCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR TS AT KCDS AROUND 00Z
WITH EXPECTATION OF ISO TO SCT STORMS INITIATING SW OF KCDS AND
EAST OF KLBB AND KPVW. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IF STORMS WILL AFFECT
KCDS ATTM SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
KPVW AND KCDS AFTER 06Z WILL SUPPORT A TEMPO MENTION IN BOTH THOSE
TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO SRN
CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE 4-CORNERS BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SFC WILL SEE THE DRYLINE SHIFT EWD TO OR JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 21Z. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S
POISED JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA...BUT RICHER
MOISTURE IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF SAN ANTONIO. SOME OF THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO OFFSET SOME MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING.
00Z WRF-NAM THE MOST EXTREME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AND THUS WITH CAPE VALUES /EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG AT 00Z/ WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MORE MEASURED AND ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AT THAT
SAME TIME. ATTM TEND TO PREFER THE LATTER VALUES WHICH STILL
CERTAINLY LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE
ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT IS PROGGED TO INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE
AROUND 21Z. FORCING AT THAT TIME OF THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
SO 20-30 PCT POPS SHOULD HANDLE PERIOD OF INITIATION...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOVING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE CONVECTION MATURES. ALSO
EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE DRYLINE PUSH QUICKLY WWD WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POISED TO BE WORKED ON BY GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW THAT WILL STILL BE HEADED EWD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY INITIATING WEST OF I-27 AFTER 06Z. FOCUS
OF LIFT WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...BUT SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME ATTEMPTS TO BUILD SWD INTO LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
SECOND ROUND ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH HEALTHY
AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE PROGGED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
WHAT LINGERING STORMS REMAIN BY 12Z FRIDAY SHOULD MAKE AMPLE
STRIDES NEWD AND OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL JET STREAK AND PRONOUNCED DRYING/SUBSIDENCE. AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO...THE AXIS OF A 70+ KNOT 500
MB JET CORE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SERVE TO ACCELERATE
THE DRYLINE EASTWARD. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM A.M. PRECIP SHOULD EASILY
BE SCOURED OUT UNDER DRY SLOTTING AND ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH LOOKS TO RESIDE IN OUR
NERN COUNTIES BY MIDDAY. THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS DOES
LOOK RATHER SMALL IN THIS AREA PARTICULARLY WITH THE DRYLINE
SPEEDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WINDOW IS
STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW POPS BEFORE THE DRYLINE DEPARTS FOR
GOOD BEFORE 00Z. ATTM...THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IN THE SERN
PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS IS PRETTY NARROW IN TIME AND
SPACE GIVEN UTTERLY BONKERS BUNKERS STORM MOTIONS OF 50 KNOTS AND
A SPEEDY DRYLINE. THIS MOTION WOULD DISPLACE MOST STORM EMBRYOS
OUT OF OUR CWA IN RAPID FASHION BEFORE CELLS CAN FULLY MATURE
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. ON A RELATED NOTE...MOS AND SUPERBLEND WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TOO CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS POST-DRYLINE PATTERN UNDER A
STRONG JET MAXIMUM...SO HAVE NUDGED THESE VALUES UP INTO THE 25-30
MPH TERRITORY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.

ASIDE FROM SOME RESIDUAL COLD POCKET AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
IN NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE...A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRI NIGHT FROM THE NW ALL THE WHILE THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
STACKED AND NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR GOODLAND KANSAS. THIS FRONT
SHOULD SLOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL TO OUR S-W ALL IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW BY SUNDAY.
THIS BROAD POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN UNDER SLOW RE-MOISTENING
ALOFT IN SW FLOW TENDS TO FAVOR PRECIP MOSTLY IN NM THIS WEEKEND...
BUT WE HAVE RETAINED SOME LOW CHANCE MENTION IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES
FOR ANY ERRANT HIGH PLAINS DRIFTERS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PROGGED TO PEAK SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEW UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST...ALTHOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THIS LOW IS ONE OF A
WEAKENING THEME BY THIS POINT WHICH RAISES SOME CONCERN OVER THE
QUALITY OF SATURATED DEPTHS AND PWAT VALUES. AT THE VERY LEAST...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY SAT NIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THEREAFTER COULD MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO MAY
WITH MONDAY SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE PROVIDED SHOWERS PAN OUT AS
ADVERTISED. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW THEN UNFOLDS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE SPANNING THE FULL EXTENT OF
THE CANADIAN AND U.S. ROCKIES. PATTERN WISE...THESE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGES TEND TO BE A BIT MORE RESILIENT THAN MODELS INDICATE WHICH
COULD PROLONG TUESDAY/S DRYING ALL THE WAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
REGIONAL SEVERE WX PATTERN LOOKS TO UNFOLD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/26




000
FXUS64 KAMA 281847
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
147 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO NEAR
THE RED RIVER. WEAK CONVERGENCE IN LAPS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS IS NOTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE WEST AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST RAPID LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A
CONSENSUS INDICATING MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS REACHING WELL INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW TO MID 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS ALREADY AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS CHILDRESS AND MATADOR. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK IF NOT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND BEHAVIOR OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

DEEP MIXING AND SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
OUR AREA SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAN EARLIER THOUGHT BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS AND THE FIRST ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WE HAVE MADE IS TO
ADD PRECIPITATION TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE COVERGENT AND MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR MOVING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVELY NARROW LOW-
LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP FROM NEAR OR SOUTH OF
DALHART TO THE AMARILLO AREA AND EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF A
SHARPENING DRYLINE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO THIS EVENING. TWO CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE 1.) INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET CONTRIBUTING TO
STRENGTHENING 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 25 KNOTS (THERE IS
QUITE A SPREAD IN 850 MB SPEEDS AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES
IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE) AND 2.) CONTINUED MOISTENING RESULTING IN
LCL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 1KM...POSSIBLY LOWER.

WE WILL PROVIDE AN UPDATED DISCUSSION FOCUSING ON SEVERE POTENTIAL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ONCE FURTHER ANALYSIS IS COMPLETED AND AS WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. A SPECIAL 21Z SOUNDING IS BEING
CONSIDERED. WE ARE PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS LATER TODAY AND MAY BE ABLE TO CAPTURE THE
BEGINNING OF THIS SUFFICIENTLY WITH THE 00Z SOUNDING. SO AN EARLIER
SOUNDING MAY BE OF LITTLE VALUE.

CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OCCURS ATOP THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER ARIZONA. ASCENT IS STRONGEST AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT VALUES ARE LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST
LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT SO THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE PLACED
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LATE INTO THE NIGHT. ANY SURFACE
BASED STORMS AND WIND/TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND BEFORE DECOUPLING INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER WHICH THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
HAIL.

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS AT ALL LOCATIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY
LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT KAMA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ARE NORTHEAST OF DALHART AND AMARILLO THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...SO FOR NOW ONLY PREVAILED THUNDER AT GUYMON. EXPECT
AMENDMENTS TO NARROW WINDOW FOR HIGHEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW NEARS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL LESSEN THEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...MOST
LIKELY BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO NORTH TEXAS SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST
TODAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE PUSH SLOWLY EAST JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH AND WEST INTO THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BY 00Z
FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
QUICKLY DESTABILIZE BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH 0-3 KM SRH OF 296 M2/S2 AND
BRN SHEAR OF 96-99 M2/S2. SURFACE-6 KM SHEAR OF 60-65 KNOTS AND
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 18 DEGREES CELSIUS. SEVERE THREAT LIKELY
AFTER 21Z TODAY...BUT WILL PUSH BACK TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GRIDS TO BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW
TRACKING EAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL APPROACH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES BY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY 06Z SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTION MAY COME BY LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/16




000
FXUS64 KFWD 281818 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
118 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR WITH SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 03Z. CHALLENGES
ARRIVE AFTERWARD WITH REGARD TO TIMING CIGS/CONVECTION THROUGH
12Z. WAA AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT AND LEAD SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED-SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME WINDOW BETWEEN 03Z-09Z...WHEN THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A 30-40 KT LLJ. WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING FAIRLY DISCRETE...WE WILL ONLY INTRODUCE
VCTS IN THE FCST AT ALL NORTH TX AIRPORTS DURING THIS 6-HR WINDOW.
BEST WAA AND POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO OK/AR BY 12Z AND
AFTER.

WE DO LOOK FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD 12Z-18Z FRIDAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. IN ADDITION...
WAA WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AND
LIMIT ARRIVALS TO AREA AIRPORTS WITH SE WINDS 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY
PREVAILING.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES IN THE 18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME... WITH A DRYLINE
MOVING CLOSE TO...OR INTO WESTERN NORTH TX. MORE NUMEROUS SHRA AND
TSRA WILL DEVELOP AND RACE NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A
FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AIRPORTS BY NIGHTFALL FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE ADDED A 24-30 HR
PERIOD BEGINNING AT 20Z FRIDAY TO INTRODUCE VCTS AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS NORTH TX FOR DFW AIRPORT.

05/

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AT
08Z WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITIES...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING SOME 1 TO 1 1/2 INCH HAIL.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING.
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND MAY
MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR...SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE
OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES...INCLUDING TORNADOES.

BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN-MOST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG DOWN FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AFTER WHICH THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE
DAY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  70  60  20
WACO                85  69  84  64  84 /   5  30  70  60  30
PARIS               82  64  75  65  79 /   5  70  80  60  40
DENTON              82  65  79  61  81 /   5  60  60  60  20
MCKINNEY            83  65  79  63  81 /   5  70  80  60  30
DALLAS              85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  80  60  30
TERRELL             84  67  80  66  81 /   5  60  80  60  30
CORSICANA           86  69  83  67  82 /   5  40  80  60  40
TEMPLE              85  69  84  66  84 /   5  30  60  60  30
MINERAL WELLS       84  65  82  58  82 /   5  40  40  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 281818 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
118 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR WITH SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 03Z. CHALLENGES
ARRIVE AFTERWARD WITH REGARD TO TIMING CIGS/CONVECTION THROUGH
12Z. WAA AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT AND LEAD SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED-SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME WINDOW BETWEEN 03Z-09Z...WHEN THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A 30-40 KT LLJ. WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING FAIRLY DISCRETE...WE WILL ONLY INTRODUCE
VCTS IN THE FCST AT ALL NORTH TX AIRPORTS DURING THIS 6-HR WINDOW.
BEST WAA AND POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO OK/AR BY 12Z AND
AFTER.

WE DO LOOK FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD 12Z-18Z FRIDAY...AS A
SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. IN ADDITION...
WAA WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AND
LIMIT ARRIVALS TO AREA AIRPORTS WITH SE WINDS 15-20 KTS AND GUSTY
PREVAILING.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES IN THE 18Z FRIDAY-00Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME... WITH A DRYLINE
MOVING CLOSE TO...OR INTO WESTERN NORTH TX. MORE NUMEROUS SHRA AND
TSRA WILL DEVELOP AND RACE NORTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A
FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AIRPORTS BY NIGHTFALL FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE ADDED A 24-30 HR
PERIOD BEGINNING AT 20Z FRIDAY TO INTRODUCE VCTS AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS NORTH TX FOR DFW AIRPORT.

05/

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AT
08Z WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITIES...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING SOME 1 TO 1 1/2 INCH HAIL.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING.
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND MAY
MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR...SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE
OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES...INCLUDING TORNADOES.

BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN-MOST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG DOWN FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AFTER WHICH THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE
DAY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  70  60  20
WACO                85  69  84  64  84 /   5  30  70  60  30
PARIS               82  64  75  65  79 /   5  70  80  60  40
DENTON              82  65  79  61  81 /   5  60  60  60  20
MCKINNEY            83  65  79  63  81 /   5  70  80  60  30
DALLAS              85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  80  60  30
TERRELL             84  67  80  66  81 /   5  60  80  60  30
CORSICANA           86  69  83  67  82 /   5  40  80  60  40
TEMPLE              85  69  84  66  84 /   5  30  60  60  30
MINERAL WELLS       84  65  82  58  82 /   5  40  40  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/58




000
FXUS64 KEWX 281804
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
104 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
BORDERLINE MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS A SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECK SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS...GUSTING TO 25 KTS AT
DRT. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LACK OF A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM
ASIDE FROM AN INCREASING LLJ THIS EVENING AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
ALLOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TO HOLD AND KEEP TSRA COVERAGE
ISOLATED AT BEST. THUS...KEPT TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW...WITH
TSRA BEING MOST LIKELY NORTH OF AUS WITH LEAST CLOUD COVER.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER MUCH EARLIER THAN USUAL TONIGHT TO MVFR
BY 2-3Z AND IFR BY 4-5Z AT THE I-35 TAF SITES...WITH A LATER
PROGRESSION AT DRT. CIGS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO MVFR BY LATE
MORNING AS ISOLATED SHRA FORM AHEAD OF A DRYLINE FEATURE WEST OF
THE I-35 TERMINALS...BEFORE TSRA THAT FORM OFF OF THE DRYLINE MOVE
INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH DRT BY 15Z TO END ANY SIGNIFICANT TSRA CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING WINDS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO DISPERSE THE FOG OVER THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE... WE
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER...HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND
WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
STRATUS AND PATCHY BR WITH RANGE OF LIFR TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
MIX OUT TO VFR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW END VFR CIGS
DEVELOP MID AFTERNOON. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND IFR
OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY RISE BACK TO MVFR FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PROBS ARE LOW DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
BETTER CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH. SELY WINDS 7 TO
15 KTS PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH
ABOUT 9 AM. CLOUDS START TO BREAK FIRST ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
AND THEN OVER THE REST OF THE AREA BY NOON TIME. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EXTENDS OVER PARTS OF
THE RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS BOUNDARY THEN BECOMES A DRY-LINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS POINT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AROUND 4 PM
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. CAPE VALUES FOR THAT
TIME OF THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THESE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS. THE
CAP IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. HOWEVER...IF SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MANAGE TO BREAK THE CAP EARLY THIS EVENING...IT MAY PULSE
AND QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FOR A SHORT PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (NEGATIVE TILTED) IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE DRY-LINE MOVES TO THE EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7 C/KM AND
LIFTED INDICES OF -8 TO -10 AND PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES. ALL OF
THESE SUGGEST THAT WE HAVE GOOD CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN ADDITION OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH
TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS. CAN NOT RULED OUT A WEAK ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AS THE DRY-LINE BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA. THERE WILL BE A
TRANSITION OVERNIGHT FROM THE SEVERE STORMS TO HEAVY RAIN CELLS.
THE SYSTEM BECOMES PROGRESSIVE SATURDAY AND EXIT MOST OF THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORM RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
ISOLATED 5 INCHES. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER A WET PATTERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  72  85  69  85 /  20  30  60  50  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  73  85  68  85 /  20  30  60  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  72  86  69  85 /  20  30  50  60  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  70  83  64  85 /  10  30  60  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  72  91  63  90 /  10  30  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  72  84  67  85 /  10  30  60  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  73  87  67  88 /  20  30  40  50  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  73  85  68  84 /  20  30  50  60  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  74  86  71  82 /  20  30  50  60  70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  72  86  69  86 /  20  30  50  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  74  87  70  87 /  20  30  50  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KBRO 281734
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1234 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND REDUCED VSBY IN
HAZE ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ACROSS THE AREA.
DON`T SEE MUCH CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A CONTINUATION
OF MODERATE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS ALOFT. HAZE FROM PARTICULATE MATTER GENERATED FROM
AGRICULTURAL FIRES TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MARGINALLY
IMPACT VSBY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS FROM AROUND THE RGV
INDICATE THAT A LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
REDUCING CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. IN ADDITION AREAS OF FOG
AND HAZE CONTINUE TO REDUCE THE VSBYS DOWN TO THE 3 TO 5 NM
RANGE. THE LOW CLDS AND FOG/HAZE WILL PERSIST ON THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE AND THE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
HEATING/MIXING EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND CLOSER TO VFR LEVELS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOW THE LOWER CEILINGS
RETURNING LATER TONIGHT FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS RESULTING IN A
RETURN OF NEAR IFR LEVELS. THE GFS/GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW CEILINGS VERSUS THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH
TRIES TO BRING SOME VFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. USED THE
GFS/GFS LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART WITH A LITTLE BIT OF THE
NAM GUIDANCE FACTORED IN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW PUSHING INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN TX BY
FRI. THE APPROACH OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO TX TONIGHT AND FRI WHICH WILL START TO TIGHTEN UP THE SURFACE
PGF INCREASING THE S-SE SURFACE WINDS. THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE 500 MB RIDGING THAT BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEX WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE APRIL. THE MET
TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PERFORM SOMEWHAT POORLY WITH THE CURRENT
WX REGIME OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAINS A PRETTY COOL BIAS VERSUS THE
MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS. SO WILL GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THROUGH FRI.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE RGV AHEAD OF THIS NEXT 500 MB
CLOSED LOW REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED WITH SOME MARGINAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION RETURNING STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS. SO CONSIDERING
THE COMBINATION OF THE FAR NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW AND THE PRETTY LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL GO WITH ONLY SILENT 10 % POPS THROUGH FRI.

THE LATEST TCEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST PLACES THE RGV IN THE CATEGORY
OF "UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS" DUE TO THE ONGOING AG FIRES
BURNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THE SMOKE AND HAZE OVER THE RGV DEGRADING THE
AIR QUALITY. SO WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF HAZE ON THROUGH TODAY
AND FRI. LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE HAZE
WILL THEN MIX WITH FOG AS THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREAD NARROWS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A SERIES OF 500MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT 500MB LOW DIGS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SATURDAY...NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CERTAIN FEATURES EMERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST MID LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BETTER POPS ACROSS
THE RANCHLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE
ECMWF IS FASTER AND MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY WHILE
THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY. ROBUST RAIN CHANCES ARE
IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PGF WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER TX COASTLINE TODAY AND FRI AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL START TO PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS CLOSE
TO SCA LEVELS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD BY
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/67




000
FXUS64 KAMA 281734
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1234 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS AT ALL LOCATIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY
LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT KAMA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ARE NORTHEAST OF DALHART AND AMARILLO THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...SO FOR NOW ONLY PREVAILED THUNDER AT GUYMON. EXPECT
AMENDMENTS TO NARROW WINDOW FOR HIGHEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING TERMINALS. OTHERWISE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW NEARS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL LESSEN THEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...MOST
LIKELY BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO NORTH TEXAS SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST
TODAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE PUSH SLOWLY EAST JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH AND WEST INTO THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BY 00Z
FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
QUICKLY DESTABILIZE BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH 0-3 KM SRH OF 296 M2/S2 AND
BRN SHEAR OF 96-99 M2/S2. SURFACE-6 KM SHEAR OF 60-65 KNOTS AND
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 18 DEGREES CELSIUS. SEVERE THREAT LIKELY
AFTER 21Z TODAY...BUT WILL PUSH BACK TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GRIDS TO BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW
TRACKING EAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL APPROACH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE
PANHANDLES BY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY 06Z SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTION MAY COME BY LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/16




000
FXUS64 KCRP 281732
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1232 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HAZY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR TO LOW END VFR
VSBYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR FOR LRD AND VCT...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY
MVFR FOR ALI AND CRP. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE IFR/MVFR BY THIS
EVENING. COULD SEE CIGS LOWER IN THE EVENING THEN LIFT SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 30KTS. THIS
SHOULD ALSO HELP VSBYS REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS RATHER THAN IFR. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RESUME BY MID TO LATE FRI MORNING. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE ISOLD NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...HAZY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST TODAY.
OTHERWISE...STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP DUE TO A STRONG CAP
AND LIMITED MOISTURE PER THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHC THE CAP COULD BE BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE N AND W
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND GIVEN THE LARGE CAPE VALUES...SHORT WAVE
AND SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...ANY STORMS THAT DO INITIATE COULD BE
BRIEFLY PULSE SVR. HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING THE CAP TO BE TOO
STRONG...BUT WILL KEEP THE 20 POP FOR THAT ISOLD POSSIBILITY.
AS FOR TIDES...THE TIDES AT BOB HALL PIER ARE CURRENTLY SKIRTING
2FT ABV MSL AS WE GO INTO HIGH TIDE. THE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WE GO TOWARD LOW TIDE. OVERALL...FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...XPCTNG BETTER FLIGHT RULES THIS MRNG THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH MVFR CIGS NOW XPCTD TO PREVAIL. CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRATUS DECK CONTINUE TO RISE AND SHOULD MIX OUT SUFFICIENTLY
FOR VFR TO RETURN BY LATE MRNG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MIX OF
UPPER END MVFR/VFR THIS AFTN AT KCRP/KVCT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTN AT KLRD. HOWEVER...DETERIORATING FLIGHT RULES AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH IFR QUICKLY DVLPNG AFTER SUNSET AS SRLY LLJ DVLPS.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT /THOUGH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TOO PESSIMISTIC PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH FLIGHT RULES/. ISO TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING VCNTY KLRD...BUT CHANCES STILL
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. AREAS OF HZ XPCTD AGAIN TODAY /ESPECIALLY
AS WINDS SLOWLY BECM MORE SERLY...BUT UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER
VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR LEVELS DRNG THE AFTN. WEAK ESERLY SFC
WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT. NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING OF LLVL WINDS XPCTD OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD AS OF WRITING...MARKED ON
SATELLITE BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS CLOUD DECK. H5 S/W
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER STATE OF ZACATECAS MX IS PROG TO ADVECT NE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF THIS
FEATURE...EDGE OF A MODEST H25 JET STREAK...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...IS WHETHER OR NOT S TX
CAN BREAK THE EML. GUIDANCE PROGS THE CAPPING INVERSION TO BE THE
WEAKEST LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND
AS SUCH THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE. GIVEN EXPECTED ESERLY LLVL FLOW TODAY...I FEEL IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS SUCH I
HAVE CARRIED ONLY MINIMAL POPS FOR TODAY. IF A STORM DOES MANAGE
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...IT MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. STRONGER LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROG TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A 35 TO 40 KT LLJ JET DEVELOPS /CORE OF JET
PROG TO BE DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL
PLAINS/. THIS SHOULD AID IN REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND ALSO
BOOST DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S NEARLY AREAWIDE. A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS PROG TO EDGE INTO THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ALSO WHEN AN ADDITIONAL H5
S/W TROUGH AND STRONGER H25 JET ARE PROG TO APPROACH THE REGION.
CAPPING WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY...BUT FEEL THAT STRONGER
LLVL FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN WHAT WE SHOULD SEE TODAY /AGAIN BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHER AREAS OF THE CWA/. MAX TEMPS
TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN WED VALUES...GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY /ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS WHERE DRYLINE
MAY SNEAK THROUGH/. AREAS OF HAZE TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO FRIDAY
AS NAVY AEROSOL MODELING INDICATES SMOKE PARTICULATES FROM
MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA AG BURNS CONTINUE TO GET DRAWN NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION.

STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY HIGH
WATER LEVELS TO LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. AS SUCH...I HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING...AND THERE IS A
RELATIVELY GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY WITH LATER
FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCES. EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING SWELL
WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT
RIP CURRENTS...LEADING TO A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FCST PD. THE FIRST TIMEFRAME OF CONCERN WL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING S/WV AND ASSCTD SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WL
TRIGGER AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT WL LKLY IMPACT NRN AREAS
ON FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE VCT AREA.  ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH BOTH OF THESE ROUNDS AS MLCAPES EXCEED 2500-3000 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AVG AROUND 40 KTS.  WL CONTINUE THE CHC/LKLY
POPS FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE CONSISTENT MODEL TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WITH A QUICKLY DEVELOPING BACKING LOW LVL FLOW AND THE FACT THAT
BOTH THE PACIFIC FRONT AND AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE PLAINS WL
STALL TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY...WL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHC POPS AND GO
WITH MORE CLOUD CVR THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.  MOISTURE ADVECTION WL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AT ALL LVLS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
EXCELLENT VEERING PROFILE EXISTS WITH LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW AND
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  PWATS WL APPROACH 2 INCHES AS A RESULT.  A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY OF THE NRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WL SIGNIFICANTLY AID MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WL MEAN THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ON MONDAY.  TUESDAY WL BE A TRANSITION
TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE CWA.  THIS DRYING TREND
WL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS STRONG RIDGING AT ALL LVLS BUILDS INTO
THE CWA.  ACTUAL DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WL ACTUALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY AND
RESULTING SWELLS WL INCREASE TIDAL/WATER LEVELS TO AT LEAST 1 TO 1.5
FT ABV NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS IS DEPICTED VERY WELL
BY THE ESTOFS MODEL ALTHOUGH AS USUAL IT IS UNDERDOING THE WATER
LEVEL BY AT LEAST 0.5 FT.  AS A RESULT...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WL
LKLY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  78  88  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  40
VICTORIA          85  76  85  72  82  /  20  10  20  40  70
LAREDO            94  76  98  74  94  /  10  20  20  10  30
ALICE             90  76  92  75  89  /  20  20  20  10  40
ROCKPORT          84  78  85  76  82  /  10  10  10  20  50
COTULLA           91  73  93  71  91  /  20  20  30  30  30
KINGSVILLE        89  78  91  76  89  /  10  10  10  10  40
NAVY CORPUS       85  78  86  76  82  /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KHGX 281729
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1229 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECK NEAR/ALONG THE COAST IS GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY INLAND.
COULD SEE SOME PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO BE REACHED THIS EVENING AND/OR OVERNIGHT. COULD
HAVE SOME SHRA/TSRA TOO (MAINLY NORTHERN TAFS)...BUT ANTICIPATE THE
BULK OF (AND LOTS OF) SHRA/TSRA TO BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WARM START TO THE DAY WITH A WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST OF
GALVESTON AND COMING ONSHORE NEAR FREEPORT AND PALACIOS. 75-78
DEWPOINTS ABOUND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH HAZY/FOGGY
CONDITIONS. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...SLOWLY
THIS MORNING THEN PICKING UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON SURGING
THROUGH COLLEGE STATION AND HUNTSVILLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THINK
THE COVERAGE IS PROBABLY GENEROUS AND HAVE PARED BACK POPS IN THE
SOUTH AND DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES INTO MID AFTERNOON.
CAP SHOULD HOLD THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT STILL APPEARS THAT CHANCE
POPS ARE IN ORDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

CONCERN GROWING FOR ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS SETX FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. TREMENDOUS MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT POINTING TO HIGHLY EFFICIENT STORMS AND
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AS LF QUAD OF JET COMES INTO PLAY FIRST AND
THEN BRANCHING OFF OF POLAR JET TO THE NORTH HELPS WITH SPEED
DIVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SPIKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING THAN 24 HOURS AGO AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES... WITH LITTLE
MORE GOING ON THAN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST VISIBILITIES ARE AT OR ABOVE 1 MILE AS OF
4 AM... WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS REPORTING DENSE FOG.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON VISIBILITIES FOR ANY POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ISSUANCE IF COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD /SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS IS A POSSIBILITY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45
CLOSER TO SUNRISE/ BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THIS MORNING.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON... SPOTTY WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED COVERAGE... BUT A
STRONGER UPDRAFT OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP AND TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /BETWEEN 7-8 C PER KM/
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR SKY TRENDS AS THIS WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON WHAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT... AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN NEVADA ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND
REACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS... SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT... WITH DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS TEXAS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TRIGGERING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE PROVIDES A MORE
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY TO THESE DISTURBANCES THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED /POSSIBLY OWING TO GUIDANCE BETTER RESOLVING MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEAR TO JUST EAST OF THE REGION TODAY/ AND THIS WOULD KEEP
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
STILL HIGHLIGHTING LOW RAIN CHANCES /20 TO 30 POPS/ NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 59 DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ACTUAL TRAJECTORY OF
THESE DISTURBANCES. OTHERWISE... INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RETURNING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

ON FRIDAY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE REGION... THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
GROW UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY... SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE
ABLE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX... WHICH MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND
AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION HEADING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL /SOME HEAVY/ WILL
EXIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COMPLEX MAY BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS IT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY... CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW THE
MOTION OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY... RAISING CONCERNS FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS... COUPLED WITH A DIVERGENT WIND FIELD ALOFT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION FORECAST TO RISE TO
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES /ABOVE THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/... ALSO FOCUSES ATTENTION ON LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO OUR ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS... ALMOST
HALF /47 PERCENT/ OF 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OUTSIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS TIME.

UNFORTUNATELY... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON
PLACEMENT OF GREATEST FORECAST RAINFALL WITH CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
QPF BULLSEYES POPPING UP FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. WILL
NEED TO PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETS UP /OR STALLS/ FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL THREAT. OF NOTE...
UNLIKE THE PAST FEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION... MEAN FLOW IS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
/WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PUSH SOUTH QUICKLY/.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKENS... BUT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
AREAS OF 2-6NM FOG NOTED IN THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY LIGHT ESE WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO
THE SE AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, FRI AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL LIKELY NEED CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. FETCH
OF MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LENGTHEN ALLOWING FOR SOME
6- 8FT SEAS TO MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE COAST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BUILDING SURF AND THREATS OF RIP CURRENTS. WILL ALSO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON WATER LEVELS. THINK THEY`LL PROBABLY PEAK BELOW
IMPACT LEVELS TODAY (THOUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO HWY 87/124)...BUT
SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER FRI-SAT AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. FAIRLY
UNSETTLED WX WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THOUGH DIFFICULT TO TIME PRECIPITATION/LOCATION THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE...MARINERS SHOULD PLAN FOR GOOD POSSIBILITIES OF STORMS
EACH DAY. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  74  86  68  81 /  20  30  40  70  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  75  85  70  81 /  10  20  40  60  70
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  75  80  74  79 /  10  10  30  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 281630
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1130 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016


.DISCUSSION...
WARM START TO THE DAY WITH A WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST OF
GALVESTON AND COMING ONSHORE NEAR FREEPORT AND PALACIOS. 75-78
DEWPOINTS ABOUND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH HAZY/FOGGY
CONDITIONS. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...SLOWLY
THIS MORNING THEN PICKING UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON SURGING
THROUGH COLLEGE STATION AND HUNTSVILLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THINK
THE COVERAGE IS PROBABLY GENEROUS AND HAVE PARED BACK POPS IN THE
SOUTH AND DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES INTO MID AFTERNOON.
CAP SHOULD HOLD THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT STILL APPEARS THAT CHANCE
POPS ARE IN ORDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

CONCERN GROWING FOR ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS SETX FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. TREMENDOUS MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT POINTING TO HIGHLY EFFICIENT STORMS AND
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AS LF QUAD OF JET COMES INTO PLAY FIRST AND
THEN BRANCHING OFF OF POLAR JET TO THE NORTH HELPS WITH SPEED
DIVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SPIKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

45



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING THAN 24 HOURS AGO AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES... WITH LITTLE
MORE GOING ON THAN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST VISIBILITIES ARE AT OR ABOVE 1 MILE AS OF
4 AM... WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS REPORTING DENSE FOG.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON VISIBILITIES FOR ANY POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ISSUANCE IF COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD /SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS IS A POSSIBILITY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45
CLOSER TO SUNRISE/ BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THIS MORNING.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON... SPOTTY WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED COVERAGE... BUT A
STRONGER UPDRAFT OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP AND TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /BETWEEN 7-8 C PER KM/
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR SKY TRENDS AS THIS WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON WHAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT... AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN NEVADA ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND
REACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS... SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT... WITH DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS TEXAS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TRIGGERING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE PROVIDES A MORE
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY TO THESE DISTURBANCES THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED /POSSIBLY OWING TO GUIDANCE BETTER RESOLVING MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEAR TO JUST EAST OF THE REGION TODAY/ AND THIS WOULD KEEP
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
STILL HIGHLIGHTING LOW RAIN CHANCES /20 TO 30 POPS/ NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 59 DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ACTUAL TRAJECTORY OF
THESE DISTURBANCES. OTHERWISE... INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RETURNING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

ON FRIDAY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE REGION... THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
GROW UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY... SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE
ABLE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX... WHICH MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND
AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION HEADING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL /SOME HEAVY/ WILL
EXIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COMPLEX MAY BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS IT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY... CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW THE
MOTION OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY... RAISING CONCERNS FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS... COUPLED WITH A DIVERGENT WIND FIELD ALOFT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION FORECAST TO RISE TO
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES /ABOVE THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/... ALSO FOCUSES ATTENTION ON LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO OUR ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS... ALMOST
HALF /47 PERCENT/ OF 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OUTSIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS TIME.

UNFORTUNATELY... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON
PLACEMENT OF GREATEST FORECAST RAINFALL WITH CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
QPF BULLSEYES POPPING UP FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. WILL
NEED TO PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETS UP /OR STALLS/ FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL THREAT. OF NOTE...
UNLIKE THE PAST FEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION... MEAN FLOW IS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
/WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PUSH SOUTH QUICKLY/.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKENS... BUT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

AVIATION...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS & FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE MID & LATE MORNING HOURS AND TREND INTO
VFR TERRITORY THRU THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WILL OPT TO LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW PROBABILITIES AND TIMING/POSITION
UNCERTAINTY. LOW STRATUS WILL FILL BACK IN THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. 47

MARINE...
AREAS OF 2-6NM FOG NOTED IN THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY LIGHT ESE WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO
THE SE AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, FRI AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL LIKELY NEED CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. FETCH
OF MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LENGTHEN ALLOWING FOR SOME
6- 8FT SEAS TO MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE COAST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BUILDING SURF AND THREATS OF RIP CURRENTS. WILL ALSO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON WATER LEVELS. THINK THEY`LL PROBABLY PEAK BELOW
IMPACT LEVELS TODAY (THOUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO HWY 87/124)...BUT
SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER FRI-SAT AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. FAIRLY
UNSETTLED WX WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THOUGH DIFFICULT TO TIME PRECIPITATION/LOCATION THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE...MARINERS SHOULD PLAN FOR GOOD POSSIBILITIES OF STORMS
EACH DAY. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  74  86  68  81 /  20  30  40  70  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  75  85  70  81 /  10  20  40  60  70
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  75  80  74  79 /  10  10  30  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
MARINE/AVIATION...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 281630
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1130 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016


.DISCUSSION...
WARM START TO THE DAY WITH A WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST OF
GALVESTON AND COMING ONSHORE NEAR FREEPORT AND PALACIOS. 75-78
DEWPOINTS ABOUND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH HAZY/FOGGY
CONDITIONS. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...SLOWLY
THIS MORNING THEN PICKING UP SPEED LATE THIS AFTERNOON SURGING
THROUGH COLLEGE STATION AND HUNTSVILLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THINK
THE COVERAGE IS PROBABLY GENEROUS AND HAVE PARED BACK POPS IN THE
SOUTH AND DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES INTO MID AFTERNOON.
CAP SHOULD HOLD THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT STILL APPEARS THAT CHANCE
POPS ARE IN ORDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

CONCERN GROWING FOR ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS SETX FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. TREMENDOUS MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT POINTING TO HIGHLY EFFICIENT STORMS AND
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AS LF QUAD OF JET COMES INTO PLAY FIRST AND
THEN BRANCHING OFF OF POLAR JET TO THE NORTH HELPS WITH SPEED
DIVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SPIKES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

45



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING THAN 24 HOURS AGO AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES... WITH LITTLE
MORE GOING ON THAN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST VISIBILITIES ARE AT OR ABOVE 1 MILE AS OF
4 AM... WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS REPORTING DENSE FOG.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON VISIBILITIES FOR ANY POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ISSUANCE IF COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD /SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS IS A POSSIBILITY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45
CLOSER TO SUNRISE/ BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THIS MORNING.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON... SPOTTY WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED COVERAGE... BUT A
STRONGER UPDRAFT OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP AND TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /BETWEEN 7-8 C PER KM/
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR SKY TRENDS AS THIS WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON WHAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT... AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN NEVADA ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND
REACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS... SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT... WITH DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS TEXAS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TRIGGERING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE PROVIDES A MORE
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY TO THESE DISTURBANCES THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED /POSSIBLY OWING TO GUIDANCE BETTER RESOLVING MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEAR TO JUST EAST OF THE REGION TODAY/ AND THIS WOULD KEEP
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
STILL HIGHLIGHTING LOW RAIN CHANCES /20 TO 30 POPS/ NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 59 DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ACTUAL TRAJECTORY OF
THESE DISTURBANCES. OTHERWISE... INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RETURNING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

ON FRIDAY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE REGION... THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
GROW UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY... SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE
ABLE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX... WHICH MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND
AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION HEADING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL /SOME HEAVY/ WILL
EXIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COMPLEX MAY BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS IT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY... CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW THE
MOTION OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY... RAISING CONCERNS FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS... COUPLED WITH A DIVERGENT WIND FIELD ALOFT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION FORECAST TO RISE TO
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES /ABOVE THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/... ALSO FOCUSES ATTENTION ON LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO OUR ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS... ALMOST
HALF /47 PERCENT/ OF 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OUTSIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS TIME.

UNFORTUNATELY... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON
PLACEMENT OF GREATEST FORECAST RAINFALL WITH CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
QPF BULLSEYES POPPING UP FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. WILL
NEED TO PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETS UP /OR STALLS/ FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL THREAT. OF NOTE...
UNLIKE THE PAST FEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION... MEAN FLOW IS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
/WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PUSH SOUTH QUICKLY/.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKENS... BUT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

AVIATION...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS & FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE MID & LATE MORNING HOURS AND TREND INTO
VFR TERRITORY THRU THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WILL OPT TO LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW PROBABILITIES AND TIMING/POSITION
UNCERTAINTY. LOW STRATUS WILL FILL BACK IN THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. 47

MARINE...
AREAS OF 2-6NM FOG NOTED IN THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY LIGHT ESE WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO
THE SE AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, FRI AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL LIKELY NEED CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. FETCH
OF MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LENGTHEN ALLOWING FOR SOME
6- 8FT SEAS TO MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE COAST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BUILDING SURF AND THREATS OF RIP CURRENTS. WILL ALSO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON WATER LEVELS. THINK THEY`LL PROBABLY PEAK BELOW
IMPACT LEVELS TODAY (THOUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO HWY 87/124)...BUT
SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER FRI-SAT AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. FAIRLY
UNSETTLED WX WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THOUGH DIFFICULT TO TIME PRECIPITATION/LOCATION THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE...MARINERS SHOULD PLAN FOR GOOD POSSIBILITIES OF STORMS
EACH DAY. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  74  86  68  81 /  20  30  40  70  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  75  85  70  81 /  10  20  40  60  70
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  75  80  74  79 /  10  10  30  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
MARINE/AVIATION...42




000
FXUS64 KEWX 281607 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1107 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING WINDS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO DISPERSE THE FOG OVER THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE... WE
HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER...HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND
WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
STRATUS AND PATCHY BR WITH RANGE OF LIFR TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
MIX OUT TO VFR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW END VFR CIGS
DEVELOP MID AFTERNOON. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND IFR
OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY RISE BACK TO MVFR FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PROBS ARE LOW DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
BETTER CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH. SELY WINDS 7 TO
15 KTS PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH
ABOUT 9 AM. CLOUDS START TO BREAK FIRST ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
AND THEN OVER THE REST OF THE AREA BY NOON TIME. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EXTENDS OVER PARTS OF
THE RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS BOUNDARY THEN BECOMES A DRY-LINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS POINT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AROUND 4 PM
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. CAPE VALUES FOR THAT
TIME OF THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THESE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS. THE
CAP IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. HOWEVER...IF SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MANAGE TO BREAK THE CAP EARLY THIS EVENING...IT MAY PULSE
AND QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FOR A SHORT PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (NEGATIVE TILTED) IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE DRY-LINE MOVES TO THE EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7 C/KM AND
LIFTED INDICES OF -8 TO -10 AND PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES. ALL OF
THESE SUGGEST THAT WE HAVE GOOD CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN ADDITION OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH
TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS. CAN NOT RULED OUT A WEAK ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AS THE DRY-LINE BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA. THERE WILL BE A
TRANSITION OVERNIGHT FROM THE SEVERE STORMS TO HEAVY RAIN CELLS.
THE SYSTEM BECOMES PROGRESSIVE SATURDAY AND EXIT MOST OF THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORM RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
ISOLATED 5 INCHES. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER A WET PATTERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  72  85  69  85 /  20  30  60  50  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  73  85  68  85 /  20  30  60  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  72  86  69  85 /  20  30  50  60  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  70  83  64  85 /  10  30  60  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  72  91  63  90 /  10  30  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  72  84  67  85 /  10  30  60  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  73  87  67  88 /  20  30  40  50  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  73  85  68  84 /  20  30  50  60  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  74  86  71  82 /  20  30  50  60  70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  72  86  69  86 /  20  30  50  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  74  87  70  87 /  20  30  50  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KCRP 281532
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1032 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...HAZY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST TODAY.
OTHERWISE...STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP DUE TO A STRONG CAP
AND LIMITED MOISTURE PER THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHC THE CAP COULD BE BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE N AND W
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND GIVEN THE LARGE CAPE VALUES...SHORT WAVE
AND SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...ANY STORMS THAT DO INITIATE COULD BE
BRIEFLY PULSE SVR. HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING THE CAP TO BE TOO
STRONG...BUT WILL KEEP THE 20 POP FOR THAT ISOLD POSSIBILITY.
AS FOR TIDES...THE TIDES AT BOB HALL PIER ARE CURRENTLY SKIRTING
2FT ABV MSL AS WE GO INTO HIGH TIDE. THE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WE GO TOWARD LOW TIDE. OVERALL...FCST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...XPCTNG BETTER FLIGHT RULES THIS MRNG THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH MVFR CIGS NOW XPCTD TO PREVAIL. CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRATUS DECK CONTINUE TO RISE AND SHOULD MIX OUT SUFFICIENTLY
FOR VFR TO RETURN BY LATE MRNG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MIX OF
UPPER END MVFR/VFR THIS AFTN AT KCRP/KVCT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTN AT KLRD. HOWEVER...DETERIORATING FLIGHT RULES AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH IFR QUICKLY DVLPNG AFTER SUNSET AS SRLY LLJ DVLPS.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT /THOUGH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TOO PESSIMISTIC PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH FLIGHT RULES/. ISO TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING VCNTY KLRD...BUT CHANCES STILL
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. AREAS OF HZ XPCTD AGAIN TODAY /ESPECIALLY
AS WINDS SLOWLY BECM MORE SERLY...BUT UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER
VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR LEVELS DRNG THE AFTN. WEAK ESERLY SFC
WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT. NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING OF LLVL WINDS XPCTD OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD AS OF WRITING...MARKED ON
SATELLITE BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS CLOUD DECK. H5 S/W
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER STATE OF ZACATECAS MX IS PROG TO ADVECT NE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF THIS
FEATURE...EDGE OF A MODEST H25 JET STREAK...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...IS WHETHER OR NOT S TX
CAN BREAK THE EML. GUIDANCE PROGS THE CAPPING INVERSION TO BE THE
WEAKEST LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND
AS SUCH THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE. GIVEN EXPECTED ESERLY LLVL FLOW TODAY...I FEEL IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS SUCH I
HAVE CARRIED ONLY MINIMAL POPS FOR TODAY. IF A STORM DOES MANAGE
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...IT MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. STRONGER LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROG TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A 35 TO 40 KT LLJ JET DEVELOPS /CORE OF JET
PROG TO BE DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL
PLAINS/. THIS SHOULD AID IN REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND ALSO
BOOST DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S NEARLY AREAWIDE. A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS PROG TO EDGE INTO THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ALSO WHEN AN ADDITIONAL H5
S/W TROUGH AND STRONGER H25 JET ARE PROG TO APPROACH THE REGION.
CAPPING WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY...BUT FEEL THAT STRONGER
LLVL FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN WHAT WE SHOULD SEE TODAY /AGAIN BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHER AREAS OF THE CWA/. MAX TEMPS
TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN WED VALUES...GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY /ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS WHERE DRYLINE
MAY SNEAK THROUGH/. AREAS OF HAZE TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO FRIDAY
AS NAVY AEROSOL MODELING INDICATES SMOKE PARTICULATES FROM
MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA AG BURNS CONTINUE TO GET DRAWN NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION.

STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY HIGH
WATER LEVELS TO LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. AS SUCH...I HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING...AND THERE IS A
RELATIVELY GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY WITH LATER
FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCES. EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING SWELL
WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT
RIP CURRENTS...LEADING TO A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FCST PD. THE FIRST TIMEFRAME OF CONCERN WL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING S/WV AND ASSCTD SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WL
TRIGGER AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT WL LKLY IMPACT NRN AREAS
ON FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE VCT AREA.  ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH BOTH OF THESE ROUNDS AS MLCAPES EXCEED 2500-3000 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AVG AROUND 40 KTS.  WL CONTINUE THE CHC/LKLY
POPS FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE CONSISTENT MODEL TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WITH A QUICKLY DEVELOPING BACKING LOW LVL FLOW AND THE FACT THAT
BOTH THE PACIFIC FRONT AND AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE PLAINS WL
STALL TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY...WL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHC POPS AND GO
WITH MORE CLOUD CVR THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.  MOISTURE ADVECTION WL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AT ALL LVLS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
EXCELLENT VEERING PROFILE EXISTS WITH LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW AND
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  PWATS WL APPROACH 2 INCHES AS A RESULT.  A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY OF THE NRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WL SIGNIFICANTLY AID MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WL MEAN THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ON MONDAY.  TUESDAY WL BE A TRANSITION
TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE CWA.  THIS DRYING TREND
WL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS STRONG RIDGING AT ALL LVLS BUILDS INTO
THE CWA.  ACTUAL DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WL ACTUALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY AND
RESULTING SWELLS WL INCREASE TIDAL/WATER LEVELS TO AT LEAST 1 TO 1.5
FT ABV NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS IS DEPICTED VERY WELL
BY THE ESTOFS MODEL ALTHOUGH AS USUAL IT IS UNDERDOING THE WATER
LEVEL BY AT LEAST 0.5 FT.  AS A RESULT...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WL
LKLY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  78  88  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  40
VICTORIA          85  76  85  72  82  /  20  10  20  40  70
LAREDO            94  76  98  74  94  /  10  20  20  10  30
ALICE             90  76  92  75  89  /  20  20  20  10  40
ROCKPORT          84  78  85  76  82  /  10  10  10  20  50
COTULLA           91  73  93  71  91  /  20  20  30  30  30
KINGSVILLE        89  78  91  76  89  /  10  10  10  10  40
NAVY CORPUS       85  78  86  76  82  /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KFWD 281214 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
714 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

PRIMARY CONCERN...THUNDER POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

A DIFFUSE LAYER OF IFR STRATUS AND ACCOMPANYING BR HAS INVADED
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN THRUST WILL BE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY...
AND GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING IT AWAY FROM WACO. BUT BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS...EXPECT SOME BRIEF IMPACTS THIS MORNING...
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND THIS THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE
IS MIXED THROUGH A GREATER DEPTH.

THE RICH GULF MOISTURE ON THE COAST WILL SURGE NORTHWARD...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
FOR METROPLEX TAFS...HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING WHEN A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
BE NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF IT.

THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN STEADILY DETERIORATING
CEILINGS AND SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FRIDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...BUT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
ENSUE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM EVENT MAY
IMPACT THE I-35 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AT
08Z WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITIES...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING SOME 1 TO 1 1/2 INCH HAIL.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING.
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND MAY
MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR...SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE
OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES...INCLUDING TORNADOES.

BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN-MOST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG DOWN FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AFTER WHICH THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE
DAY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  70  60  20
WACO                85  69  84  64  84 /   5  30  70  60  30
PARIS               82  64  75  65  79 /   5  70  80  60  40
DENTON              82  65  79  61  81 /   5  60  60  60  20
MCKINNEY            83  65  79  63  81 /   5  70  80  60  30
DALLAS              85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  80  60  30
TERRELL             84  67  80  66  81 /   5  60  80  60  30
CORSICANA           86  69  83  67  82 /   5  40  80  60  40
TEMPLE              85  69  84  66  84 /   5  30  60  60  30
MINERAL WELLS       84  65  82  58  82 /   5  40  40  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 281202 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
702 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS FROM AROUND THE RGV
INDICATE THAT A LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
REDUCING CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. IN ADDITION AREAS OF FOG
AND HAZE CONTINUE TO REDUCE THE VSBYS DOWN TO THE 3 TO 5 NM
RANGE. THE LOW CLDS AND FOG/HAZE WILL PERSIST ON THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE AND THE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
HEATING/MIXING EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND CLOSER TO VFR LEVELS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOW THE LOWER CEILINGS
RETURNING LATER TONIGHT FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS RESULTING IN A
RETURN OF NEAR IFR LEVELS. THE GFS/GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW CEILINGS VERSUS THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH
TRIES TO BRING SOME VFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. USED THE
GFS/GFS LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART WITH A LITTLE BIT OF THE
NAM GUIDANCE FACTORED IN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW PUSHING INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN TX BY
FRI. THE APPROACH OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO TX TONIGHT AND FRI WHICH WILL START TO TIGHTEN UP THE SURFACE
PGF INCREASING THE S-SE SURFACE WINDS. THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE 500 MB RIDGING THAT BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEX WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE APRIL. THE MET
TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PERFORM SOMEWHAT POORLY WITH THE CURRENT
WX REGIME OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAINS A PRETTY COOL BIAS VERSUS THE
MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS. SO WILL GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THROUGH FRI.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE RGV AHEAD OF THIS NEXT 500 MB
CLOSED LOW REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED WITH SOME MARGINAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION RETURNING STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS. SO CONSIDERING
THE COMBINATION OF THE FAR NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW AND THE PRETTY LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL GO WITH ONLY SILENT 10 % POPS THROUGH FRI.

THE LATEST TCEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST PLACES THE RGV IN THE CATEGORY
OF "UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS" DUE TO THE ONGOING AG FIRES
BURNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THE SMOKE AND HAZE OVER THE RGV DEGRADING THE
AIR QUALITY. SO WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF HAZE ON THROUGH TODAY
AND FRI. LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE HAZE
WILL THEN MIX WITH FOG AS THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREAD NARROWS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A SERIES OF 500MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT 500MB LOW DIGS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SATURDAY...NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CERTAIN FEATURES EMERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST MID LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BETTER POPS ACROSS
THE RANCHLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE
ECMWF IS FASTER AND MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY WHILE
THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY. ROBUST RAIN CHANCES ARE
IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PGF WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER TX COASTLINE TODAY AND FRI AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL START TO PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS CLOSE
TO SCA LEVELS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD BY
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 281202 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
702 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS FROM AROUND THE RGV
INDICATE THAT A LOW STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
REDUCING CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. IN ADDITION AREAS OF FOG
AND HAZE CONTINUE TO REDUCE THE VSBYS DOWN TO THE 3 TO 5 NM
RANGE. THE LOW CLDS AND FOG/HAZE WILL PERSIST ON THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE AND THE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
HEATING/MIXING EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND CLOSER TO VFR LEVELS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOW THE LOWER CEILINGS
RETURNING LATER TONIGHT FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS RESULTING IN A
RETURN OF NEAR IFR LEVELS. THE GFS/GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE LOW CEILINGS VERSUS THE NAM GUIDANCE WHICH
TRIES TO BRING SOME VFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. USED THE
GFS/GFS LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART WITH A LITTLE BIT OF THE
NAM GUIDANCE FACTORED IN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW PUSHING INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN TX BY
FRI. THE APPROACH OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO TX TONIGHT AND FRI WHICH WILL START TO TIGHTEN UP THE SURFACE
PGF INCREASING THE S-SE SURFACE WINDS. THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE 500 MB RIDGING THAT BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEX WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE APRIL. THE MET
TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PERFORM SOMEWHAT POORLY WITH THE CURRENT
WX REGIME OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAINS A PRETTY COOL BIAS VERSUS THE
MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS. SO WILL GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THROUGH FRI.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE RGV AHEAD OF THIS NEXT 500 MB
CLOSED LOW REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED WITH SOME MARGINAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION RETURNING STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS. SO CONSIDERING
THE COMBINATION OF THE FAR NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW AND THE PRETTY LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL GO WITH ONLY SILENT 10 % POPS THROUGH FRI.

THE LATEST TCEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST PLACES THE RGV IN THE CATEGORY
OF "UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS" DUE TO THE ONGOING AG FIRES
BURNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THE SMOKE AND HAZE OVER THE RGV DEGRADING THE
AIR QUALITY. SO WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF HAZE ON THROUGH TODAY
AND FRI. LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE HAZE
WILL THEN MIX WITH FOG AS THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREAD NARROWS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A SERIES OF 500MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT 500MB LOW DIGS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SATURDAY...NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CERTAIN FEATURES EMERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST MID LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BETTER POPS ACROSS
THE RANCHLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE
ECMWF IS FASTER AND MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY WHILE
THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY. ROBUST RAIN CHANCES ARE
IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PGF WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER TX COASTLINE TODAY AND FRI AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL START TO PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS CLOSE
TO SCA LEVELS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD BY
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...58




000
FXUS64 KCRP 281138 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
638 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCTNG BETTER FLIGHT RULES THIS MRNG THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH MVFR CIGS NOW XPCTD TO PREVAIL. CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRATUS DECK CONTINUE TO RISE AND SHOULD MIX OUT SUFFICIENTLY
FOR VFR TO RETURN BY LATE MRNG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MIX OF
UPPER END MVFR/VFR THIS AFTN AT KCRP/KVCT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTN AT KLRD. HOWEVER...DETERIORATING FLIGHT RULES AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH IFR QUICKLY DVLPNG AFTER SUNSET AS SRLY LLJ DVLPS.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT /THOUGH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TOO PESSIMISTIC PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH FLIGHT RULES/. ISO TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING VCNTY KLRD...BUT CHANCES STILL
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. AREAS OF HZ XPCTD AGAIN TODAY /ESPECIALLY
AS WINDS SLOWLY BECM MORE SERLY...BUT UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER
VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR LEVELS DRNG THE AFTN. WEAK ESERLY SFC
WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT. NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING OF LLVL WINDS XPCTD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD AS OF WRITING...MARKED ON
SATELLITE BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS CLOUD DECK. H5 S/W
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER STATE OF ZACATECAS MX IS PROG TO ADVECT NE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF THIS
FEATURE...EDGE OF A MODEST H25 JET STREAK...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...IS WHETHER OR NOT S TX
CAN BREAK THE EML. GUIDANCE PROGS THE CAPPING INVERSION TO BE THE
WEAKEST LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND
AS SUCH THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE. GIVEN EXPECTED ESERLY LLVL FLOW TODAY...I FEEL IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS SUCH I
HAVE CARRIED ONLY MINIMAL POPS FOR TODAY. IF A STORM DOES MANAGE
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...IT MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. STRONGER LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROG TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A 35 TO 40 KT LLJ JET DEVELOPS /CORE OF JET
PROG TO BE DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL
PLAINS/. THIS SHOULD AID IN REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND ALSO
BOOST DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S NEARLY AREAWIDE. A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS PROG TO EDGE INTO THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ALSO WHEN AN ADDITIONAL H5
S/W TROUGH AND STRONGER H25 JET ARE PROG TO APPROACH THE REGION.
CAPPING WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY...BUT FEEL THAT STRONGER
LLVL FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN WHAT WE SHOULD SEE TODAY /AGAIN BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHER AREAS OF THE CWA/. MAX TEMPS
TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN WED VALUES...GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY /ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS WHERE DRYLINE
MAY SNEAK THROUGH/. AREAS OF HAZE TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO FRIDAY
AS NAVY AEROSOL MODELING INDICATES SMOKE PARTICULATES FROM
MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA AG BURNS CONTINUE TO GET DRAWN NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION.

STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY HIGH
WATER LEVELS TO LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. AS SUCH...I HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING...AND THERE IS A
RELATIVELY GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY WITH LATER
FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCES. EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING SWELL
WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT
RIP CURRENTS...LEADING TO A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FCST PD. THE FIRST TIMEFRAME OF CONCERN WL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING S/WV AND ASSCTD SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WL
TRIGGER AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT WL LKLY IMPACT NRN AREAS
ON FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE VCT AREA.  ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH BOTH OF THESE ROUNDS AS MLCAPES EXCEED 2500-3000 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AVG AROUND 40 KTS.  WL CONTINUE THE CHC/LKLY
POPS FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE CONSISTENT MODEL TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WITH A QUICKLY DEVELOPING BACKING LOW LVL FLOW AND THE FACT THAT
BOTH THE PACIFIC FRONT AND AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE PLAINS WL
STALL TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY...WL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHC POPS AND GO
WITH MORE CLOUD CVR THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.  MOISTURE ADVECTION WL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AT ALL LVLS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
EXCELLENT VEERING PROFILE EXISTS WITH LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW AND
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  PWATS WL APPROACH 2 INCHES AS A RESULT.  A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY OF THE NRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WL SIGNIFICANTLY AID MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WL MEAN THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ON MONDAY.  TUESDAY WL BE A TRANSITION
TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE CWA.  THIS DRYING TREND
WL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS STRONG RIDGING AT ALL LVLS BUILDS INTO
THE CWA.  ACTUAL DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WL ACTUALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY AND
RESULTING SWELLS WL INCREASE TIDAL/WATER LEVELS TO AT LEAST 1 TO 1.5
FT ABV NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS IS DEPICTED VERY WELL
BY THE ESTOFS MODEL ALTHOUGH AS USUAL IT IS UNDERDOING THE WATER
LEVEL BY AT LEAST 0.5 FT.  AS A RESULT...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WL
LKLY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  78  88  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  40
VICTORIA          85  76  85  72  82  /  20  10  20  40  70
LAREDO            94  76  98  74  94  /  10  20  20  10  30
ALICE             90  76  92  75  89  /  20  20  20  10  40
ROCKPORT          84  78  85  76  82  /  10  10  10  20  50
COTULLA           91  73  93  71  91  /  20  20  30  30  30
KINGSVILLE        89  78  91  76  89  /  10  10  10  10  40
NAVY CORPUS       85  78  86  76  82  /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 281138 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
638 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCTNG BETTER FLIGHT RULES THIS MRNG THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH MVFR CIGS NOW XPCTD TO PREVAIL. CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRATUS DECK CONTINUE TO RISE AND SHOULD MIX OUT SUFFICIENTLY
FOR VFR TO RETURN BY LATE MRNG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MIX OF
UPPER END MVFR/VFR THIS AFTN AT KCRP/KVCT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTN AT KLRD. HOWEVER...DETERIORATING FLIGHT RULES AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH IFR QUICKLY DVLPNG AFTER SUNSET AS SRLY LLJ DVLPS.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT /THOUGH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TOO PESSIMISTIC PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH FLIGHT RULES/. ISO TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING VCNTY KLRD...BUT CHANCES STILL
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF. AREAS OF HZ XPCTD AGAIN TODAY /ESPECIALLY
AS WINDS SLOWLY BECM MORE SERLY...BUT UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER
VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR LEVELS DRNG THE AFTN. WEAK ESERLY SFC
WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT. NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING OF LLVL WINDS XPCTD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD AS OF WRITING...MARKED ON
SATELLITE BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS CLOUD DECK. H5 S/W
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER STATE OF ZACATECAS MX IS PROG TO ADVECT NE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF THIS
FEATURE...EDGE OF A MODEST H25 JET STREAK...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...IS WHETHER OR NOT S TX
CAN BREAK THE EML. GUIDANCE PROGS THE CAPPING INVERSION TO BE THE
WEAKEST LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND
AS SUCH THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE. GIVEN EXPECTED ESERLY LLVL FLOW TODAY...I FEEL IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS SUCH I
HAVE CARRIED ONLY MINIMAL POPS FOR TODAY. IF A STORM DOES MANAGE
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...IT MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. STRONGER LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROG TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A 35 TO 40 KT LLJ JET DEVELOPS /CORE OF JET
PROG TO BE DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL
PLAINS/. THIS SHOULD AID IN REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND ALSO
BOOST DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S NEARLY AREAWIDE. A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS PROG TO EDGE INTO THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ALSO WHEN AN ADDITIONAL H5
S/W TROUGH AND STRONGER H25 JET ARE PROG TO APPROACH THE REGION.
CAPPING WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY...BUT FEEL THAT STRONGER
LLVL FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN WHAT WE SHOULD SEE TODAY /AGAIN BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHER AREAS OF THE CWA/. MAX TEMPS
TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN WED VALUES...GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY /ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS WHERE DRYLINE
MAY SNEAK THROUGH/. AREAS OF HAZE TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO FRIDAY
AS NAVY AEROSOL MODELING INDICATES SMOKE PARTICULATES FROM
MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA AG BURNS CONTINUE TO GET DRAWN NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION.

STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY HIGH
WATER LEVELS TO LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. AS SUCH...I HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING...AND THERE IS A
RELATIVELY GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY WITH LATER
FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCES. EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING SWELL
WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT
RIP CURRENTS...LEADING TO A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FCST PD. THE FIRST TIMEFRAME OF CONCERN WL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING S/WV AND ASSCTD SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WL
TRIGGER AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT WL LKLY IMPACT NRN AREAS
ON FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE VCT AREA.  ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH BOTH OF THESE ROUNDS AS MLCAPES EXCEED 2500-3000 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AVG AROUND 40 KTS.  WL CONTINUE THE CHC/LKLY
POPS FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE CONSISTENT MODEL TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WITH A QUICKLY DEVELOPING BACKING LOW LVL FLOW AND THE FACT THAT
BOTH THE PACIFIC FRONT AND AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE PLAINS WL
STALL TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY...WL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHC POPS AND GO
WITH MORE CLOUD CVR THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.  MOISTURE ADVECTION WL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AT ALL LVLS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
EXCELLENT VEERING PROFILE EXISTS WITH LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW AND
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  PWATS WL APPROACH 2 INCHES AS A RESULT.  A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY OF THE NRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WL SIGNIFICANTLY AID MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WL MEAN THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ON MONDAY.  TUESDAY WL BE A TRANSITION
TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE CWA.  THIS DRYING TREND
WL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS STRONG RIDGING AT ALL LVLS BUILDS INTO
THE CWA.  ACTUAL DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WL ACTUALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY AND
RESULTING SWELLS WL INCREASE TIDAL/WATER LEVELS TO AT LEAST 1 TO 1.5
FT ABV NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS IS DEPICTED VERY WELL
BY THE ESTOFS MODEL ALTHOUGH AS USUAL IT IS UNDERDOING THE WATER
LEVEL BY AT LEAST 0.5 FT.  AS A RESULT...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WL
LKLY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  78  88  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  40
VICTORIA          85  76  85  72  82  /  20  10  20  40  70
LAREDO            94  76  98  74  94  /  10  20  20  10  30
ALICE             90  76  92  75  89  /  20  20  20  10  40
ROCKPORT          84  78  85  76  82  /  10  10  10  20  50
COTULLA           91  73  93  71  91  /  20  20  30  30  30
KINGSVILLE        89  78  91  76  89  /  10  10  10  10  40
NAVY CORPUS       85  78  86  76  82  /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KSJT 281135
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
635 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low clouds are moving north across the Hill Country but have yet
to enter the CWA. There is a strong moisture gradient between I-10
and locations with this cloud cover and dewpoints are expected to
jump rapidly after sunrise. This should result in tempo ceilings
from KSOA, to KJCT, to KBBD for a few hours this morning.
Otherwise, expect a diurnal Cu field this afternoon. Isolated
TSRA will be possible along the dryline this afternoon, mainly
west of a KSJT-KABI line. Confidence is low that any terminals
will be affected by convection this afternoon. Low clouds will
overspread the CWA tonight, likely dropping below 1000 ft along
I-10. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight. Again,
spatial uncertainly only warrants VCSH at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

A potent shortwave trough continues to move east toward the Four
Corners early this morning. Southwesterly flow aloft will
increase over West TX today and tonight as this trough approaches.
The strong, 100 kt jet streak nosing into the Southern Rockies
will remain to our west over the next 24 hours, with the
subtropical jet extending from west to east across the Baja
Peninsula will slowly shift northeast. A warm front will lift
north through the Big Country this morning, likely settling just
north of Haskell and Throckmorton Counties by peak heating. A
surface low will develop along this boundary over the Southern
High Plains, with a dryline extending south from the triple point
through the Permian Basin.

South to southeast winds today will increase to 10-20 mph, gusting
to near 30 mph at times. This will result in a rapid influx of
low-level moisture across the CWA, pushing dewpoints in the
mid/upper 50s by mid afternoon. The dryline is forecast to remain
west of the CWA this afternoon. The upper-level trough remains a
bit far west to produce strong forcing for ascent over West TX.
Instead, we may have to rely on weak perturbations in the flow and
peak heating to initiate convection. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected along the dryline this afternoon, with
better coverage anticipated along/north of the warm front. Any
storms that develop today shouldn`t stray too far east of the
dryline as storm motions are forecast to be NNE at 25-30 kts.
Slight chance PoPs were included west of an Ozona, to Robert Lee,
to Stamford line for this afternoon. There should be adequate
instability this afternoon to support strong updrafts and deep-
layer shear looks to be sufficient to sustain convection. A few
storms could become severe, but this risk will be limited in areal
coverage and convection may have a difficult time moving into the
CWA.

This evening, scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms, will
begin to develop in the warm sector. This convection is not
expected to be too widespread, but may increase in coverage
overnight as the upper- level trough ejects into the Plains and
the low-level jet intensifies. A few strong storms will be
possible overnight, mainly capable of marginally severe hail. We
don`t anticipate significant rainfall totals over the next 24
hours given the scattered nature of this convection and lack of
strong forcing. As far as temperatures are concerned, expect
afternoon highs in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid/upper
60s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Friday and Friday Night)

An upper level trough over the southwest US this morning will move
northeast across the Southern Plains and provide lift for
thunderstorms on Friday. However, the models are indicating that
most of this activity(scattered at best in coverage)will be over
the eastern 1/3 of West Central Texas along and east of a dryline.
The combination of moderate instability, abundant low level
moisture(dewpoints in the 60s), 0- 6KM shear of 35 to 40 knots may
result in a few storms becoming severe Friday afternoon and early
evening. The best threat for severe weather will be east of a
Haskell to Sonora line. The main hazards will be large hail,
damaging winds and dangerous lightning. Will keep the chance Pops
going across most of the area. Looks like the more widespread
convection will remain east over north and central Texas. For
Friday night, lingering showers and storms will remain over the
Northwest Hill Country and Heartland and have chance Pops.

(Saturday and Sunday)

Looks like the weekend will be mainly dry with cooler temperatures
by Sunday. Temperatures will be mild Saturday with highs in the
lower to mid 80s. A cold front will move south across the area
Saturday night and cooler temperatures are expected Sunday. Highs
will range from the lower 70s across the Big Country to the lower
80s along the I-10 corridor.

(Sunday Night through Thursday)

The next upper level short wave trough will move east-northeast
across Texas early next week along with some overrunning over a
shallow cool airmass. As a result, there is another chance of rain
Sunday night through Monday night. Going with a mainly dry
forecast through the middle of the next week due to little upper
level forcing and surface high pressure over the area.
Temperatures will be cool with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s
Monday, warming into the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday, and lower 80s
by Thursday. Lows will mainly be in the 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  67  83  57 /  10  40  40  10
San Angelo  86  69  87  56 /  10  30  30  10
Junction  86  68  86  59 /  10  30  40  40

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

Johnson




000
FXUS64 KEWX 281133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
STRATUS AND PATCHY BR WITH RANGE OF LIFR TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
MIX OUT TO VFR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW END VFR CIGS
DEVELOP MID AFTERNOON. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND IFR
OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY RISE BACK TO MVFR FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PROBS ARE LOW DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
AND HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
BETTER CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH. SELY WINDS 7 TO
15 KTS PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH
ABOUT 9 AM. CLOUDS START TO BREAK FIRST ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
AND THEN OVER THE REST OF THE AREA BY NOON TIME. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EXTENDS OVER PARTS OF
THE RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS BOUNDARY THEN BECOMES A DRY-LINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS POINT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AROUND 4 PM
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. CAPE VALUES FOR THAT
TIME OF THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THESE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS. THE
CAP IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. HOWEVER...IF SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MANAGE TO BREAK THE CAP EARLY THIS EVENING...IT MAY PULSE
AND QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FOR A SHORT PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (NEGATIVE TILTED) IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE DRY-LINE MOVES TO THE EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7 C/KM AND
LIFTED INDICES OF -8 TO -10 AND PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES. ALL OF
THESE SUGGEST THAT WE HAVE GOOD CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN ADDITION OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH
TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS. CAN NOT RULED OUT A WEAK ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AS THE DRY-LINE BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA. THERE WILL BE A
TRANSITION OVERNIGHT FROM THE SEVERE STORMS TO HEAVY RAIN CELLS.
THE SYSTEM BECOMES PROGRESSIVE SATURDAY AND EXIT MOST OF THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORM RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
ISOLATED 5 INCHES. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER A WET PATTERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  72  85  69  85 /  20  30  60  50  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  73  85  68  85 /  20  30  60  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  72  86  69  85 /  20  30  50  60  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  70  83  64  85 /  10  30  60  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  72  91  63  90 /  10  30  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  72  84  67  85 /  10  30  60  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  73  87  67  88 /  20  30  40  50  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  73  85  68  84 /  20  30  50  60  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  74  86  71  82 /  20  30  50  60  70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  72  86  69  86 /  20  30  50  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  74  87  70  87 /  20  30  50  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KAMA 281123 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
624 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO NORTH TEXAS SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST
TODAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE PUSH SLOWLY EAST JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH AND WEST INTO THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BY 00Z
FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
QUICKLY DESTABILIZE BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH 0-3 KM SRH OF 296 M2/S2 AND
BRN SHEAR OF 96-99 M2/S2. SURFACE-6 KM SHEAR OF 60-65 KNOTS AND
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 18 DEGREES CELSIUS. SEVERE THREAT LIKELY
AFTER 21Z TODAY...BUT WILL PUSH BACK TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GRIDS TO BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW
TRACKING EAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL APPROACH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
ALL OF THE PANHANDLES BY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTION MAY COME BY LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET NEAR KAMA THRU 28/14Z. THIS WILL
PRESENT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WINDS JUST 300 FEET AGL ARE AROUND
40 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE AOB 12 KTS
NEAR THE SFC.  THIS WIND SHEAR WILL ABATE AFT 28/14Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT PROMOTES MIXING AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BTWN 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL THEN TURN TO POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...AFT 28/21Z.  CIG WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AOA 5K FT AGL AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE.  THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OCCURS AT ALL TERMINALS AFT 29/00Z...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES AT KGUY AND KAMA.  HAVE INDICATED VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS AFT 29/00Z AT THOSE TERMINALS WITH LOWERING SCT CIG
COVERAGE AOA 1500 FT AGL.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED
AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOMES EVIDENT.

BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  50  73  40  69 /  20  60  30  10  10
BEAVER OK                  69  50  60  42  66 /  30  80  70  40   5
BOISE CITY OK              66  44  55  37  61 /  30  70  60  30  20
BORGER TX                  76  53  70  43  69 /  30  70  40  20   5
BOYS RANCH TX              80  49  71  41  69 /  20  60  30  10  20
CANYON TX                  79  50  74  40  71 /  20  60  30  10  20
CLARENDON TX               78  54  77  44  72 /  30  60  50  10   5
DALHART TX                 74  47  64  38  65 /  20  60  40  20  20
GUYMON OK                  70  48  59  40  64 /  30  70  60  30   5
HEREFORD TX                81  48  73  40  72 /  10  50  30  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                72  52  69  44  68 /  30  70  60  30   5
PAMPA TX                   74  51  72  40  68 /  30  70  50  20   5
SHAMROCK TX                76  55  78  46  73 /  30  70  60  20   5
WELLINGTON TX              80  57  82  48  76 /  40  60  60  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/98




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281116
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR TS AT KCDS AROUND 00Z
WITH EXPECTATION OF ISO TO SCT STORMS INITIATING SW OF KCDS AND
EAST OF KLBB AND KPVW. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IF STORMS WILL AFFECT
KCDS ATTM SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
KPVW AND KCDS AFTER 06Z WILL SUPPORT A TEMPO MENTION IN BOTH THOSE
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO SRN
CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE 4-CORNERS BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SFC WILL SEE THE DRYLINE SHIFT EWD TO OR JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 21Z. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S
POISED JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA...BUT RICHER
MOISTURE IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF SAN ANTONIO. SOME OF THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO OFFSET SOME MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING.
00Z WRF-NAM THE MOST EXTREME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AND THUS WITH CAPE VALUES /EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG AT 00Z/ WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MORE MEASURED AND ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AT THAT
SAME TIME. ATTM TEND TO PREFER THE LATTER VALUES WHICH STILL
CERTAINLY LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE
ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT IS PROGGED TO INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE
AROUND 21Z. FORCING AT THAT TIME OF THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
SO 20-30 PCT POPS SHOULD HANDLE PERIOD OF INITIATION...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOVING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE CONVECTION MATURES. ALSO
EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE DRYLINE PUSH QUICKLY WWD WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POISED TO BE WORKED ON BY GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW THAT WILL STILL BE HEADED EWD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY INITIATING WEST OF I-27 AFTER 06Z. FOCUS
OF LIFT WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...BUT SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME ATTEMPTS TO BUILD SWD INTO LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
SECOND ROUND ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH HEALTHY
AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE PROGGED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
WHAT LINGERING STORMS REMAIN BY 12Z FRIDAY SHOULD MAKE AMPLE
STRIDES NEWD AND OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL JET STREAK AND PRONOUNCED DRYING/SUBSIDENCE. AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO...THE AXIS OF A 70+ KNOT 500
MB JET CORE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SERVE TO ACCELERATE
THE DRYLINE EASTWARD. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM A.M. PRECIP SHOULD EASILY
BE SCOURED OUT UNDER DRY SLOTTING AND ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH LOOKS TO RESIDE IN OUR
NERN COUNTIES BY MIDDAY. THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS DOES
LOOK RATHER SMALL IN THIS AREA PARTICULARLY WITH THE DRYLINE
SPEEDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WINDOW IS
STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW POPS BEFORE THE DRYLINE DEPARTS FOR
GOOD BEFORE 00Z. ATTM...THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IN THE SERN
PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS IS PRETTY NARROW IN TIME AND
SPACE GIVEN UTTERLY BONKERS BUNKERS STORM MOTIONS OF 50 KNOTS AND
A SPEEDY DRYLINE. THIS MOTION WOULD DISPLACE MOST STORM EMBRYOS
OUT OF OUR CWA IN RAPID FASHION BEFORE CELLS CAN FULLY MATURE
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. ON A RELATED NOTE...MOS AND SUPERBLEND WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TOO CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS POST-DRYLINE PATTERN UNDER A
STRONG JET MAXIMUM...SO HAVE NUDGED THESE VALUES UP INTO THE 25-30
MPH TERRITORY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.

ASIDE FROM SOME RESIDUAL COLD POCKET AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
IN NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE...A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRI NIGHT FROM THE NW ALL THE WHILE THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
STACKED AND NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR GOODLAND KANSAS. THIS FRONT
SHOULD SLOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL TO OUR S-W ALL IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW BY SUNDAY.
THIS BROAD POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN UNDER SLOW RE-MOISTENING
ALOFT IN SW FLOW TENDS TO FAVOR PRECIP MOSTLY IN NM THIS WEEKEND...
BUT WE HAVE RETAINED SOME LOW CHANCE MENTION IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES
FOR ANY ERRANT HIGH PLAINS DRIFTERS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PROGGED TO PEAK SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEW UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST...ALTHOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THIS LOW IS ONE OF A
WEAKENING THEME BY THIS POINT WHICH RAISES SOME CONCERN OVER THE
QUALITY OF SATURATED DEPTHS AND PWAT VALUES. AT THE VERY LEAST...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY SAT NIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THEREAFTER COULD MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO MAY
WITH MONDAY SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE PROVIDED SHOWERS PAN OUT AS
ADVERTISED. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW THEN UNFOLDS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE SPANNING THE FULL EXTENT OF
THE CANADIAN AND U.S. ROCKIES. PATTERN WISE...THESE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGES TEND TO BE A BIT MORE RESILIENT THAN MODELS INDICATE WHICH
COULD PROLONG TUESDAY/S DRYING ALL THE WAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
REGIONAL SEVERE WX PATTERN LOOKS TO UNFOLD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93/07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281116
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR TS AT KCDS AROUND 00Z
WITH EXPECTATION OF ISO TO SCT STORMS INITIATING SW OF KCDS AND
EAST OF KLBB AND KPVW. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IF STORMS WILL AFFECT
KCDS ATTM SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
KPVW AND KCDS AFTER 06Z WILL SUPPORT A TEMPO MENTION IN BOTH THOSE
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO SRN
CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE 4-CORNERS BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SFC WILL SEE THE DRYLINE SHIFT EWD TO OR JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 21Z. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S
POISED JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA...BUT RICHER
MOISTURE IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF SAN ANTONIO. SOME OF THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO OFFSET SOME MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING.
00Z WRF-NAM THE MOST EXTREME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AND THUS WITH CAPE VALUES /EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG AT 00Z/ WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MORE MEASURED AND ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AT THAT
SAME TIME. ATTM TEND TO PREFER THE LATTER VALUES WHICH STILL
CERTAINLY LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE
ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT IS PROGGED TO INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE
AROUND 21Z. FORCING AT THAT TIME OF THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
SO 20-30 PCT POPS SHOULD HANDLE PERIOD OF INITIATION...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOVING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE CONVECTION MATURES. ALSO
EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE DRYLINE PUSH QUICKLY WWD WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POISED TO BE WORKED ON BY GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW THAT WILL STILL BE HEADED EWD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY INITIATING WEST OF I-27 AFTER 06Z. FOCUS
OF LIFT WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...BUT SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME ATTEMPTS TO BUILD SWD INTO LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
SECOND ROUND ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH HEALTHY
AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE PROGGED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
WHAT LINGERING STORMS REMAIN BY 12Z FRIDAY SHOULD MAKE AMPLE
STRIDES NEWD AND OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL JET STREAK AND PRONOUNCED DRYING/SUBSIDENCE. AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO...THE AXIS OF A 70+ KNOT 500
MB JET CORE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SERVE TO ACCELERATE
THE DRYLINE EASTWARD. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM A.M. PRECIP SHOULD EASILY
BE SCOURED OUT UNDER DRY SLOTTING AND ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH LOOKS TO RESIDE IN OUR
NERN COUNTIES BY MIDDAY. THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS DOES
LOOK RATHER SMALL IN THIS AREA PARTICULARLY WITH THE DRYLINE
SPEEDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WINDOW IS
STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW POPS BEFORE THE DRYLINE DEPARTS FOR
GOOD BEFORE 00Z. ATTM...THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IN THE SERN
PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS IS PRETTY NARROW IN TIME AND
SPACE GIVEN UTTERLY BONKERS BUNKERS STORM MOTIONS OF 50 KNOTS AND
A SPEEDY DRYLINE. THIS MOTION WOULD DISPLACE MOST STORM EMBRYOS
OUT OF OUR CWA IN RAPID FASHION BEFORE CELLS CAN FULLY MATURE
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. ON A RELATED NOTE...MOS AND SUPERBLEND WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TOO CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS POST-DRYLINE PATTERN UNDER A
STRONG JET MAXIMUM...SO HAVE NUDGED THESE VALUES UP INTO THE 25-30
MPH TERRITORY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.

ASIDE FROM SOME RESIDUAL COLD POCKET AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
IN NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE...A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRI NIGHT FROM THE NW ALL THE WHILE THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
STACKED AND NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR GOODLAND KANSAS. THIS FRONT
SHOULD SLOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL TO OUR S-W ALL IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW BY SUNDAY.
THIS BROAD POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN UNDER SLOW RE-MOISTENING
ALOFT IN SW FLOW TENDS TO FAVOR PRECIP MOSTLY IN NM THIS WEEKEND...
BUT WE HAVE RETAINED SOME LOW CHANCE MENTION IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES
FOR ANY ERRANT HIGH PLAINS DRIFTERS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PROGGED TO PEAK SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEW UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST...ALTHOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THIS LOW IS ONE OF A
WEAKENING THEME BY THIS POINT WHICH RAISES SOME CONCERN OVER THE
QUALITY OF SATURATED DEPTHS AND PWAT VALUES. AT THE VERY LEAST...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY SAT NIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THEREAFTER COULD MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO MAY
WITH MONDAY SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE PROVIDED SHOWERS PAN OUT AS
ADVERTISED. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW THEN UNFOLDS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE SPANNING THE FULL EXTENT OF
THE CANADIAN AND U.S. ROCKIES. PATTERN WISE...THESE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGES TEND TO BE A BIT MORE RESILIENT THAN MODELS INDICATE WHICH
COULD PROLONG TUESDAY/S DRYING ALL THE WAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
REGIONAL SEVERE WX PATTERN LOOKS TO UNFOLD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93/07




000
FXUS64 KMAF 281059
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today, along with gusty south to
southwest winds at all area terminals.  There is a low chance TSRA
will develop on a dryline this afternoon and tonight, but
probabilities are too low to include at any given site.  MVFR
ceilings may develop and impinge upon KMAF late tonight, but
appear to be too transient to mention at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

An upper level low pressure system across southern Nevada will
move east across the southern Rockies through tonight. As this
occurs it will intensify and take on a negative tilt. East of this
upper low, a surface low will develop over the western high plains
region in the southwest flow aloft. Low level thermal ridging will
push temperatures well above normal this afternoon. The backing
mid level flow will draw gulf moisture northwestward into the
Permian Basin late today and tonight and the intensifying system
is expected to generate decent large scale lift as it becomes
negatively tilted. This should allow for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms to develop along the dryline late this
afternoon in intense heating across the central/eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. As the upper system becomes
negatively tilted tonight, thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage and expand westward across the remainder of the
Permian Basin and the southeast New Mexico Plains along the
retreating dryline. A few storms could be severe given bulk shear
of 40 to 45 knots with capes ranging from 1000 to 3000 j/kg.

This upper low is forecast to lift slowly northeast from the
southern Rockies into the central Plains Friday and Saturday. This
should push the precipitation east of the forecast area by Friday
afternoon through Saturday night. Breezy to windy conditions
should develop on Friday with near to slightly above normal
temperatures on Friday and Saturday as downslope flow and deep
mixing develop behind the surface system.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday and Monday. Backing mid level flow along with
increasing large scale lift will draw low level moisture
northwestward from the Gulf. Thunderstorms will once again be
possible across much of the forecast area these days and
will be enhanced by isentropic lift behind a surface cold
front and surface easterly upslope flow behind the boundary.
Behind the front high temperatures Sunday and Monday are
expected to be much below normal.

Precipitation chances should decrease behind this system
Tuesday through Thursday with isolated thunderstorms confined
to the mountains and or portions of the southeast New Mexico
Plains. Temperatures will remain cool Tuesday and Wednesday
and then climb to near normal values by next Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

More dry conditions and above normal temperatures are in store
for the entire forecast area today. Since fire danger remains
high, and 20 foot wind speeds are expected to occur across the
Guadalupe Mountains and portions of the SE NM Plains, will issue a
Red Flag Warning for these areas from 28/17Z to 29/03Z. In spite
of minimum afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent roughly
along and west of a Lamesa to Midland to Sanderson line this
afternoon, 20 foot wind speeds will stay below 20 mph sustained
for the most part, except in the RFW area mentioned above. A
dryline will take shape over the eastern CWA this afternoon, and
could provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Rain chances will increase tonight as the dryline surges westward
with good or better recovery roughly along and east of a Hobbs to
Big Bend line, and poor recovery to the west of this line.

The dryline will push east of the region Friday morning.
Temperatures are expected to rise near normal levels by afternoon,
but 20 foot wind speeds will likely rise above 20 mph sustained over
locations along and west of a Hobbs to Midland to Fort Stockton to
Big Bend line.  Since fire danger will still be high or better in
these areas, will issue a Fire Weather Watch from 29/16Z to 30/03Z
for most areas west of the above line.  Recovery Friday night will
be poor in most locations as low level winds remain out of the west.
High temperatures will remain above normal Saturday afternoon, but
wind speeds look too weak for additional fire weather highlights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  63  86  53 /  20  40  10  10
Carlsbad                       88  53  80  49 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         92  64  93  61 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  92  57  85  55 /  10  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  50  70  48 /  10   0  10   0
Hobbs                          85  51  76  45 /  10  20  10   0
Marfa                          83  43  76  40 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           89  62  84  55 /  20  30  10  10
Odessa                         89  62  84  55 /  10  30  10  10
Wink                           92  56  85  52 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/12




000
FXUS64 KAMA 281007
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
507 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO NORTH TEXAS SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST
TODAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE PUSH SLOWLY EAST JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH AND WEST INTO THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BY 00Z
FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
QUICKLY DESTABILIZE BY 00Z FRIDAY WITH 0-3 KM SRH OF 296 M2/S2 AND
BRN SHEAR OF 96-99 M2/S2. SURFACE-6 KM SHEAR OF 60-65 KNOTS AND
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 18 DEGREES CELSIUS. SEVERE THREAT LIKELY
AFTER 21Z TODAY...BUT WILL PUSH BACK TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GRIDS TO BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW
TRACKING EAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL APPROACH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY 00Z FRIDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS
ALL OF THE PANHANDLES BY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED BY LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTION MAY COME BY LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  50  73  40  69 /  20  60  30  10  10
BEAVER OK                  69  50  60  42  66 /  30  80  70  40   5
BOISE CITY OK              66  44  55  37  61 /  30  70  60  30  20
BORGER TX                  76  53  70  43  69 /  30  70  40  20   5
BOYS RANCH TX              80  49  71  41  69 /  20  60  30  10  20
CANYON TX                  79  50  74  40  71 /  20  60  30  10  20
CLARENDON TX               78  54  77  44  72 /  30  60  50  10   5
DALHART TX                 74  47  64  38  65 /  20  60  40  20  20
GUYMON OK                  70  48  59  40  64 /  30  70  60  30   5
HEREFORD TX                81  48  73  40  72 /  10  50  30  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                72  52  69  44  68 /  30  70  60  30   5
PAMPA TX                   74  51  72  40  68 /  30  70  50  20   5
SHAMROCK TX                76  55  78  46  73 /  30  70  60  20   5
WELLINGTON TX              80  57  82  48  76 /  40  60  60  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/98




000
FXUS64 KBRO 280936
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
436 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW PUSHING INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN TX BY
FRI. THE APPROACH OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTO TX TONIGHT AND FRI WHICH WILL START TO TIGHTEN UP THE SURFACE
PGF INCREASING THE S-SE SURFACE WINDS. THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE 500 MB RIDGING THAT BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEX WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE APRIL. THE MET
TEMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PERFORM SOMEWHAT POORLY WITH THE CURRENT
WX REGIME OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAINS A PRETTY COOL BIAS VERSUS THE
MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS. SO WILL GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THROUGH FRI.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE RGV AHEAD OF THIS NEXT 500 MB
CLOSED LOW REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED WITH SOME MARGINAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION RETURNING STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURS. SO CONSIDERING
THE COMBINATION OF THE FAR NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW AND THE PRETTY LIMITED MOISTURE VALUES THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL GO WITH ONLY SILENT 10 % POPS THROUGH FRI.

THE LATEST TCEQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST PLACES THE RGV IN THE CATEGORY
OF "UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS" DUE TO THE ONGOING AG FIRES
BURNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL CONTINUE PUSHING THE SMOKE AND HAZE OVER THE RGV DEGRADING THE
AIR QUALITY. SO WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF HAZE ON THROUGH TODAY
AND FRI. LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE HAZE
WILL THEN MIX WITH FOG AS THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREAD NARROWS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A SERIES OF 500MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST MID
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT 500MB LOW DIGS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SATURDAY...NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CERTAIN FEATURES EMERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST MID LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BETTER POPS ACROSS
THE RANCHLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE
ECMWF IS FASTER AND MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY WHILE
THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH ON TUESDAY. ROBUST RAIN CHANCES ARE
IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY
DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PGF WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER TX COASTLINE TODAY AND FRI AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL START TO PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS CLOSE
TO SCA LEVELS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRI.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD BY
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  88  78  89  78 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          89  78  91  77 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            92  77  94  77 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              95  77  97  77 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  77 101  76 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  78  84  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58




000
FXUS64 KCRP 280932
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD AS OF WRITING...MARKED ON
SATELLITE BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS CLOUD DECK. H5 S/W
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER STATE OF ZACATECAS MX IS PROG TO ADVECT NE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF THIS
FEATURE...EDGE OF A MODEST H25 JET STREAK...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...IS WHETHER OR NOT S TX
CAN BREAK THE EML. GUIDANCE PROGS THE CAPPING INVERSION TO BE THE
WEAKEST LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND
AS SUCH THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE. GIVEN EXPECTED ESERLY LLVL FLOW TODAY...I FEEL IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS SUCH I
HAVE CARRIED ONLY MINIMAL POPS FOR TODAY. IF A STORM DOES MANAGE
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...IT MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. STRONGER LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROG TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A 35 TO 40 KT LLJ JET DEVELOPS /CORE OF JET
PROG TO BE DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL
PLAINS/. THIS SHOULD AID IN REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND ALSO
BOOST DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S NEARLY AREAWIDE. A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS PROG TO EDGE INTO THE WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ALSO WHEN AN ADDITIONAL H5
S/W TROUGH AND STRONGER H25 JET ARE PROG TO APPROACH THE REGION.
CAPPING WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY...BUT FEEL THAT STRONGER
LLVL FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN WHAT WE SHOULD SEE TODAY /AGAIN BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHER AREAS OF THE CWA/. MAX TEMPS
TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN WED VALUES...GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW.
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY /ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS WHERE DRYLINE
MAY SNEAK THROUGH/. AREAS OF HAZE TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO FRIDAY
AS NAVY AEROSOL MODELING INDICATES SMOKE PARTICULATES FROM
MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA AG BURNS CONTINUE TO GET DRAWN NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION.

STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH ALREADY HIGH
WATER LEVELS TO LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. AS SUCH...I HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING...AND THERE IS A
RELATIVELY GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY WITH LATER
FORECAST PACKAGE ISSUANCES. EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING SWELL
WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT
RIP CURRENTS...LEADING TO A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
FCST PD. THE FIRST TIMEFRAME OF CONCERN WL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING S/WV AND ASSCTD SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WL
TRIGGER AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT WL LKLY IMPACT NRN AREAS
ON FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE VCT AREA.  ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WL BE POSSIBLE
WITH BOTH OF THESE ROUNDS AS MLCAPES EXCEED 2500-3000 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AVG AROUND 40 KTS.  WL CONTINUE THE CHC/LKLY
POPS FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE CONSISTENT MODEL TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WITH A QUICKLY DEVELOPING BACKING LOW LVL FLOW AND THE FACT THAT
BOTH THE PACIFIC FRONT AND AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE PLAINS WL
STALL TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY...WL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHC POPS AND GO
WITH MORE CLOUD CVR THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST.  MOISTURE ADVECTION WL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AT ALL LVLS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
EXCELLENT VEERING PROFILE EXISTS WITH LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW AND
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  PWATS WL APPROACH 2 INCHES AS A RESULT.  A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY OF THE NRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WL SIGNIFICANTLY AID MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
TRAINING OF CELLS AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WL MEAN THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ON MONDAY.  TUESDAY WL BE A TRANSITION
TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE CWA.  THIS DRYING TREND
WL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS STRONG RIDGING AT ALL LVLS BUILDS INTO
THE CWA.  ACTUAL DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WL ACTUALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY AND
RESULTING SWELLS WL INCREASE TIDAL/WATER LEVELS TO AT LEAST 1 TO 1.5
FT ABV NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS IS DEPICTED VERY WELL
BY THE ESTOFS MODEL ALTHOUGH AS USUAL IT IS UNDERDOING THE WATER
LEVEL BY AT LEAST 0.5 FT.  AS A RESULT...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WL
LKLY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  78  88  76  86  /  10  10  10  10  40
VICTORIA          85  76  85  72  82  /  20  10  20  40  70
LAREDO            94  76  98  74  94  /  10  20  20  10  30
ALICE             90  76  92  75  89  /  20  20  20  10  40
ROCKPORT          84  78  85  76  82  /  10  10  10  20  50
COTULLA           91  73  93  71  91  /  20  20  30  30  30
KINGSVILLE        89  78  91  76  89  /  10  10  10  10  40
NAVY CORPUS       85  78  86  76  82  /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KEWX 280929
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
429 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH
ABOUT 9 AM. CLOUDS START TO BREAK FIRST ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
AND THEN OVER THE REST OF THE AREA BY NOON TIME. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EXTENDS OVER PARTS OF
THE RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS BOUNDARY THEN BECOMES A DRY-LINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS POINT FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AROUND 4 PM
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. CAPE VALUES FOR THAT
TIME OF THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. THESE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS. THE
CAP IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. HOWEVER...IF SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MANAGE TO BREAK THE CAP EARLY THIS EVENING...IT MAY PULSE
AND QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FOR A SHORT PERIOD.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (NEGATIVE TILTED) IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE DRY-LINE MOVES TO THE EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7 C/KM AND
LIFTED INDICES OF -8 TO -10 AND PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES. ALL OF
THESE SUGGEST THAT WE HAVE GOOD CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN ADDITION OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH
TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS. CAN NOT RULED OUT A WEAK ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AS THE DRY-LINE BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA. THERE WILL BE A
TRANSITION OVERNIGHT FROM THE SEVERE STORMS TO HEAVY RAIN CELLS.
THE SYSTEM BECOMES PROGRESSIVE SATURDAY AND EXIT MOST OF THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORM RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
ISOLATED 5 INCHES. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER A WET PATTERN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  72  85  69  85 /  20  30  60  50  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  73  85  68  85 /  20  30  60  50  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  72  86  69  85 /  20  30  50  60  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  70  83  64  85 /  10  30  60  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  72  91  63  90 /  10  30  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  72  84  67  85 /  10  30  60  50  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  73  87  67  88 /  20  30  40  50  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  73  85  68  84 /  20  30  50  60  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  74  86  71  82 /  20  30  50  60  70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  72  86  69  86 /  20  30  50  50  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  74  87  70  87 /  20  30  50  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KHGX 280914
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING THAN 24 HOURS AGO AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES... WITH LITTLE
MORE GOING ON THAN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST VISIBILITIES ARE AT OR ABOVE 1 MILE AS OF
4 AM... WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS REPORTING DENSE FOG.
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON VISIBILITIES FOR ANY POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ISSUANCE IF COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD /SREF
GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS IS A POSSIBILITY WEST OF INTERSTATE 45
CLOSER TO SUNRISE/ BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THIS MORNING.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON... SPOTTY WARM
AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN ISOLATED COVERAGE... BUT A
STRONGER UPDRAFT OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP AND TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /BETWEEN 7-8 C PER KM/
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE... EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR SKY TRENDS AS THIS WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON WHAT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE REALIZED TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT... AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN NEVADA ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND
REACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS... SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT... WITH DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS TEXAS IN THE FLOW ALOFT TRIGGERING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE PROVIDES A MORE
NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY TO THESE DISTURBANCES THAN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED /POSSIBLY OWING TO GUIDANCE BETTER RESOLVING MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NEAR TO JUST EAST OF THE REGION TODAY/ AND THIS WOULD KEEP
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
STILL HIGHLIGHTING LOW RAIN CHANCES /20 TO 30 POPS/ NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 59 DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ACTUAL TRAJECTORY OF
THESE DISTURBANCES. OTHERWISE... INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RETURNING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY WARM
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

ON FRIDAY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE REGION... THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
GROW UPSCALE INTO ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY... SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE
ABLE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX... WHICH MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND
AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION HEADING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL /SOME HEAVY/ WILL
EXIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COMPLEX MAY BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS IT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY... CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW THE
MOTION OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY... RAISING CONCERNS FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. THIS... COUPLED WITH A DIVERGENT WIND FIELD ALOFT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION FORECAST TO RISE TO
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES /ABOVE THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/... ALSO FOCUSES ATTENTION ON LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO OUR ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS... ALMOST
HALF /47 PERCENT/ OF 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OUTSIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS TIME.

UNFORTUNATELY... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON
PLACEMENT OF GREATEST FORECAST RAINFALL WITH CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
QPF BULLSEYES POPPING UP FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. WILL
NEED TO PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETS UP /OR STALLS/ FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL THREAT. OF NOTE...
UNLIKE THE PAST FEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION... MEAN FLOW IS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
/WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PUSH SOUTH QUICKLY/.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEAKENS... BUT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

&&

.AVIATION...
MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS & FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE MID & LATE MORNING HOURS AND TREND INTO
VFR TERRITORY THRU THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WILL OPT TO LEAVE
OUT OF TAFS ATTM DUE TO LOW PROBABILITIES AND TIMING/POSITION
UNCERTAINTY. LOW STRATUS WILL FILL BACK IN THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. 47

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF 2-6NM FOG NOTED IN THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY LIGHT ESE WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO
THE SE AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, FRI AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WILL LIKELY NEED CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. FETCH
OF MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LENGTHEN ALLOWING FOR SOME
6- 8FT SEAS TO MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE COAST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BUILDING SURF AND THREATS OF RIP CURRENTS. WILL ALSO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON WATER LEVELS. THINK THEY`LL PROBABLY PEAK BELOW
IMPACT LEVELS TODAY (THOUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO HWY 87/124)...BUT
SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER FRI-SAT AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. FAIRLY
UNSETTLED WX WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THOUGH DIFFICULT TO TIME PRECIPITATION/LOCATION THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE...MARINERS SHOULD PLAN FOR GOOD POSSIBILITIES OF STORMS
EACH DAY. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  74  86  68  81 /  10  30  40  70  70
HOUSTON (IAH)              86  75  85  70  81 /  10  20  40  60  70
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  75  80  74  79 /  10  10  30  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...47




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 280908
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
308 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRING OF BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS WINDS
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION FOR YET
ANOTHER WINDY DAY. EXPECT A DUSTY AFTERNOON WITH THE SKIES TURNING
BROWN. ALSO SEASONALLY WARM AND DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
FRIDAY TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM PASSES
KEEPING WINDS UP AND BRINGING A WEAK COOL FRONT. AREA MOUNTAINS
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
WILL REMAIN DRY. LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER SATURDAY. SUNDAY
MOISTURE MOVES IN OVER AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON EASTERLY
WINDS...AND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. NEXT
WEEK IT APPEARS WINDS WILL FINALLY BACK OFF AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE BORDERLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY EASING OVER NW AZ THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR TODAY AND
FRIDAY AS IT APPROACHES TODAY...AND PASSES FRIDAY. TODAY WE`LL SEE
NO MOISTURE AS WE REMAIN DRY AND WARM A BIT. THE PRIMARY IMPACT
TODAY WILL BE THE RETURN OF STRONG WINDS. SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL
GRADIENTS ALL TIGHTEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING FOR DEEP
MIXING TO 15KFT. THUS WINDS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH EXPECTED. STRONGER WINDS WEST AND LESSER WINDS OVER
FAR WEST TEXAS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

TONIGHT WE EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVER THE USUAL
EAST SLOPE LOCATIONS OVER NE EL PASO...WEST OF THE ORGANS...AND
SAN ANDRES MTNS. ELSEWHERE COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING AND
DROPPING WIND SPEEDS. FRIDAY THE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS N NEW MEXICO
AND DRAGS A PACIFIC COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG AND TURN WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD EASE THE DUST ISSUE. WINDS
WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY FOR EAST ZONES...LIGHTER WEST ZONES. SOME
MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WITH
MINOR DYNAMICS THIS ALLOWS FOR WEAK INSTABILITY LEADING TO
ISOLATED PCPN POTENTIAL OVER MAINLY THE MTNS. TEMPS WILL COOL 7-10
DEGREES AND TOP OUT ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVES.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE MODELS HAVE A TRACK RECORD OF WAVERING.
CURRENT GFS IS DRY FOR SAT AND SUN WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL SUGGEST
LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED MTN PCPN.
HOWEVER BOTH SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. THUS MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE DRY NO MATTER THE MODEL. WE
HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LEFT THE
LOWLANDS DRY WITH WARMING TEMPS. AFTERNOONS WILL BE MILDLY BREEZY
AND WELL BELOW TODAY AND FRIDAY`S SPEEDS.

MODELS SUGGEST A DRY LINE INTRUSION SUN-MON-TUE-WED FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS
TURNS WINDS EASTERLY AND DRAWS GULF MOISTURE OVER OUR EASTERN
ZONES. THE AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE LOOK TO STAY IN A DRY
AIRMASS WITH WESTERLY WINDS. FOR SUN AND MON SLIGHT RISK OF
PCPN/STORMS OVER HUDSPETH AND OTERO. FOR TUE AND WED WE LOOK TO
SIT UNDER A RIDGE WHICH SHOULD HAVE SOME AFFECT IN LIMITING ANY
STORMS WITHIN THE MOISTURE OVER THE EAST ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z-29/12Z...
ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE BLOWING DUST THIS AFTERNOON AFT 18Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF LESS THAN 3 SM VSBY OVR LCL AREAS. WESTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS AFT 18Z.

$$

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20
TO 30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THE AFTERNOON. LOWLANDS WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE PATCHY BLOWING DUST. EXPECTED HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE THRESHOLDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
MOST OF THE AREA FROM NOON THROUGH 8PM THURSDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS
MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH IN THE MOUNTAINS TO STAY OUT OF CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS WITH EVEN A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER POSSIBLE. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWLANDS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE CRITICAL
VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 83  56  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           83  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              79  50  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              81  50  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              58  36  48  34 /   0   0  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   76  48  68  44 /   0   0  10   0
SILVER CITY             69  41  60  40 /   0   0  10  10
DEMING                  79  46  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               77  43  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      82  57  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               83  52  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            86  54  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              78  52  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  84  56  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            81  52  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          80  54  70  50 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           79  46  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   80  46  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                81  48  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               80  52  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 67  42  58  39 /   0   0   0  10
MESCALERO               68  41  58  38 /   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                66  40  57  39 /   0   0   0  10
WINSTON                 68  37  60  37 /   0   0  10  10
HILLSBORO               74  43  66  43 /   0   0  10   0
SPACEPORT               78  48  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            68  35  62  35 /   0   0  10  10
HURLEY                  71  41  62  41 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   74  38  66  37 /   0   0  10  10
MULE CREEK              71  36  63  35 /   0   0  10  10
FAYWOOD                 73  42  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  78  45  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 79  45  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          77  45  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              74  44  66  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NMZ404-411-413.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ111>113.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ418-419.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ055-056.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ418-419.

&&

$$

14-BIRD




000
FXUS64 KFWD 280902 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AT
08Z WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITIES...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING SOME 1 TO 1 1/2 INCH HAIL.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING.
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND MAY
MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR...SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE
OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES...INCLUDING TORNADOES.

BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN-MOST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG DOWN FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AFTER WHICH THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE
DAY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1210 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MOISTURE RETURNING RAPIDLY INTO TEXAS. IFR CIGS/VIS ARE
SPREADING NORTH FROM THE COAST AND WILL MAKE A RUN AT WACO TOWARD
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TEMPO FOR 2SM BR
FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE DFW TAF
AT THIS TIME. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  70  60  20
WACO                85  69  84  64  84 /   5  30  70  60  30
PARIS               82  64  75  65  79 /   5  70  80  60  40
DENTON              82  65  79  61  81 /   5  60  60  60  20
MCKINNEY            83  65  79  63  81 /   5  70  80  60  30
DALLAS              85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  80  60  30
TERRELL             84  67  80  66  81 /   5  60  80  60  30
CORSICANA           86  69  83  67  82 /   5  40  80  60  40
TEMPLE              85  69  84  66  84 /   5  30  60  60  30
MINERAL WELLS       84  65  82  58  82 /   5  40  40  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/58




000
FXUS64 KLUB 280902
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO SRN
CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE 4-CORNERS BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SFC WILL SEE THE DRYLINE SHIFT EWD TO OR JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 21Z. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S
POISED JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA...BUT RICHER
MOISTURE IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF SAN ANTONIO. SOME OF THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO OFFSET SOME MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING.
00Z WRF-NAM THE MOST EXTREME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AND THUS WITH CAPE VALUES /EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG AT 00Z/ WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MORE MEASURED AND ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AT THAT
SAME TIME. ATTM TEND TO PREFER THE LATTER VALUES WHICH STILL
CERTAINLY LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE
ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT IS PROGGED TO INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE
AROUND 21Z. FORCING AT THAT TIME OF THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
SO 20-30 PCT POPS SHOULD HANDLE PERIOD OF INITIATION...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOVING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE CONVECTION MATURES. ALSO
EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE DRYLINE PUSH QUICKLY WWD WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POISED TO BE WORKED ON BY GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW THAT WILL STILL BE HEADED EWD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY INITIATING WEST OF I-27 AFTER 06Z. FOCUS
OF LIFT WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...BUT SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME ATTEMPTS TO BUILD SWD INTO LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
SECOND ROUND ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH HEALTHY
AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE PROGGED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
WHAT LINGERING STORMS REMAIN BY 12Z FRIDAY SHOULD MAKE AMPLE
STRIDES NEWD AND OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL JET STREAK AND PRONOUNCED DRYING/SUBSIDENCE. AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO...THE AXIS OF A 70+ KNOT 500
MB JET CORE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SERVE TO ACCELERATE
THE DRYLINE EASTWARD. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM A.M. PRECIP SHOULD EASILY
BE SCOURED OUT UNDER DRY SLOTTING AND ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH LOOKS TO RESIDE IN OUR
NERN COUNTIES BY MIDDAY. THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS DOES
LOOK RATHER SMALL IN THIS AREA PARTICULARLY WITH THE DRYLINE
SPEEDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WINDOW IS
STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW POPS BEFORE THE DRYLINE DEPARTS FOR
GOOD BEFORE 00Z. ATTM...THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IN THE SERN
PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS IS PRETTY NARROW IN TIME AND
SPACE GIVEN UTTERLY BONKERS BUNKERS STORM MOTIONS OF 50 KNOTS AND
A SPEEDY DRYLINE. THIS MOTION WOULD DISPLACE MOST STORM EMBRYOS
OUT OF OUR CWA IN RAPID FASHION BEFORE CELLS CAN FULLY MATURE
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. ON A RELATED NOTE...MOS AND SUPERBLEND WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TOO CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS POST-DRYLINE PATTERN UNDER A
STRONG JET MAXIMUM...SO HAVE NUDGED THESE VALUES UP INTO THE 25-30
MPH TERRITORY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.

ASIDE FROM SOME RESIDUAL COLD POCKET AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
IN NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE...A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRI NIGHT FROM THE NW ALL THE WHILE THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
STACKED AND NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR GOODLAND KANSAS. THIS FRONT
SHOULD SLOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL TO OUR S-W ALL IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW BY SUNDAY.
THIS BROAD POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN UNDER SLOW RE-MOISTENING
ALOFT IN SW FLOW TENDS TO FAVOR PRECIP MOSTLY IN NM THIS WEEKEND...
BUT WE HAVE RETAINED SOME LOW CHANCE MENTION IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES
FOR ANY ERRANT HIGH PLAINS DRIFTERS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PROGGED TO PEAK SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEW UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST...ALTHOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THIS LOW IS ONE OF A
WEAKENING THEME BY THIS POINT WHICH RAISES SOME CONCERN OVER THE
QUALITY OF SATURATED DEPTHS AND PWAT VALUES. AT THE VERY LEAST...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY SAT NIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THEREAFTER COULD MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO MAY
WITH MONDAY SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE PROVIDED SHOWERS PAN OUT AS
ADVERTISED. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW THEN UNFOLDS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE SPANNING THE FULL EXTENT OF
THE CANADIAN AND U.S. ROCKIES. PATTERN WISE...THESE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGES TEND TO BE A BIT MORE RESILIENT THAN MODELS INDICATE WHICH
COULD PROLONG TUESDAY/S DRYING ALL THE WAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
REGIONAL SEVERE WX PATTERN LOOKS TO UNFOLD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93




000
FXUS64 KFWD 280902 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AT
08Z WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITIES...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING SOME 1 TO 1 1/2 INCH HAIL.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING.
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND MAY
MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR...SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE
OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES...INCLUDING TORNADOES.

BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN-MOST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG DOWN FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AFTER WHICH THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE
DAY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1210 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MOISTURE RETURNING RAPIDLY INTO TEXAS. IFR CIGS/VIS ARE
SPREADING NORTH FROM THE COAST AND WILL MAKE A RUN AT WACO TOWARD
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TEMPO FOR 2SM BR
FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE DFW TAF
AT THIS TIME. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  70  60  20
WACO                85  69  84  64  84 /   5  30  70  60  30
PARIS               82  64  75  65  79 /   5  70  80  60  40
DENTON              82  65  79  61  81 /   5  60  60  60  20
MCKINNEY            83  65  79  63  81 /   5  70  80  60  30
DALLAS              85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  80  60  30
TERRELL             84  67  80  66  81 /   5  60  80  60  30
CORSICANA           86  69  83  67  82 /   5  40  80  60  40
TEMPLE              85  69  84  66  84 /   5  30  60  60  30
MINERAL WELLS       84  65  82  58  82 /   5  40  40  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/58




000
FXUS64 KLUB 280902
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO SRN
CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE 4-CORNERS BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SFC WILL SEE THE DRYLINE SHIFT EWD TO OR JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 21Z. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S
POISED JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA...BUT RICHER
MOISTURE IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF SAN ANTONIO. SOME OF THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO OFFSET SOME MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING.
00Z WRF-NAM THE MOST EXTREME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AND THUS WITH CAPE VALUES /EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG AT 00Z/ WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MORE MEASURED AND ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AT THAT
SAME TIME. ATTM TEND TO PREFER THE LATTER VALUES WHICH STILL
CERTAINLY LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE
ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT IS PROGGED TO INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE
AROUND 21Z. FORCING AT THAT TIME OF THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
SO 20-30 PCT POPS SHOULD HANDLE PERIOD OF INITIATION...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOVING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE CONVECTION MATURES. ALSO
EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE DRYLINE PUSH QUICKLY WWD WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POISED TO BE WORKED ON BY GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW THAT WILL STILL BE HEADED EWD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY INITIATING WEST OF I-27 AFTER 06Z. FOCUS
OF LIFT WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...BUT SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME ATTEMPTS TO BUILD SWD INTO LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
SECOND ROUND ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH HEALTHY
AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE PROGGED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
WHAT LINGERING STORMS REMAIN BY 12Z FRIDAY SHOULD MAKE AMPLE
STRIDES NEWD AND OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL JET STREAK AND PRONOUNCED DRYING/SUBSIDENCE. AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO...THE AXIS OF A 70+ KNOT 500
MB JET CORE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SERVE TO ACCELERATE
THE DRYLINE EASTWARD. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM A.M. PRECIP SHOULD EASILY
BE SCOURED OUT UNDER DRY SLOTTING AND ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH LOOKS TO RESIDE IN OUR
NERN COUNTIES BY MIDDAY. THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS DOES
LOOK RATHER SMALL IN THIS AREA PARTICULARLY WITH THE DRYLINE
SPEEDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WINDOW IS
STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW POPS BEFORE THE DRYLINE DEPARTS FOR
GOOD BEFORE 00Z. ATTM...THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IN THE SERN
PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS IS PRETTY NARROW IN TIME AND
SPACE GIVEN UTTERLY BONKERS BUNKERS STORM MOTIONS OF 50 KNOTS AND
A SPEEDY DRYLINE. THIS MOTION WOULD DISPLACE MOST STORM EMBRYOS
OUT OF OUR CWA IN RAPID FASHION BEFORE CELLS CAN FULLY MATURE
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. ON A RELATED NOTE...MOS AND SUPERBLEND WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TOO CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS POST-DRYLINE PATTERN UNDER A
STRONG JET MAXIMUM...SO HAVE NUDGED THESE VALUES UP INTO THE 25-30
MPH TERRITORY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.

ASIDE FROM SOME RESIDUAL COLD POCKET AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
IN NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE...A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRI NIGHT FROM THE NW ALL THE WHILE THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
STACKED AND NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR GOODLAND KANSAS. THIS FRONT
SHOULD SLOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL TO OUR S-W ALL IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW BY SUNDAY.
THIS BROAD POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN UNDER SLOW RE-MOISTENING
ALOFT IN SW FLOW TENDS TO FAVOR PRECIP MOSTLY IN NM THIS WEEKEND...
BUT WE HAVE RETAINED SOME LOW CHANCE MENTION IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES
FOR ANY ERRANT HIGH PLAINS DRIFTERS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PROGGED TO PEAK SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEW UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST...ALTHOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THIS LOW IS ONE OF A
WEAKENING THEME BY THIS POINT WHICH RAISES SOME CONCERN OVER THE
QUALITY OF SATURATED DEPTHS AND PWAT VALUES. AT THE VERY LEAST...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY SAT NIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THEREAFTER COULD MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO MAY
WITH MONDAY SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE PROVIDED SHOWERS PAN OUT AS
ADVERTISED. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW THEN UNFOLDS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE SPANNING THE FULL EXTENT OF
THE CANADIAN AND U.S. ROCKIES. PATTERN WISE...THESE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGES TEND TO BE A BIT MORE RESILIENT THAN MODELS INDICATE WHICH
COULD PROLONG TUESDAY/S DRYING ALL THE WAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
REGIONAL SEVERE WX PATTERN LOOKS TO UNFOLD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93




000
FXUS64 KFWD 280902 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AT
08Z WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITIES...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING SOME 1 TO 1 1/2 INCH HAIL.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING.
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND MAY
MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR...SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE
OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES...INCLUDING TORNADOES.

BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN-MOST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG DOWN FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AFTER WHICH THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE
DAY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1210 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MOISTURE RETURNING RAPIDLY INTO TEXAS. IFR CIGS/VIS ARE
SPREADING NORTH FROM THE COAST AND WILL MAKE A RUN AT WACO TOWARD
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TEMPO FOR 2SM BR
FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE DFW TAF
AT THIS TIME. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  70  60  20
WACO                85  69  84  64  84 /   5  30  70  60  30
PARIS               82  64  75  65  79 /   5  70  80  60  40
DENTON              82  65  79  61  81 /   5  60  60  60  20
MCKINNEY            83  65  79  63  81 /   5  70  80  60  30
DALLAS              85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  80  60  30
TERRELL             84  67  80  66  81 /   5  60  80  60  30
CORSICANA           86  69  83  67  82 /   5  40  80  60  40
TEMPLE              85  69  84  66  84 /   5  30  60  60  30
MINERAL WELLS       84  65  82  58  82 /   5  40  40  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/58




000
FXUS64 KLUB 280902
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO SRN
CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE 4-CORNERS BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SFC WILL SEE THE DRYLINE SHIFT EWD TO OR JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 21Z. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S
POISED JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA...BUT RICHER
MOISTURE IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF SAN ANTONIO. SOME OF THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO OFFSET SOME MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING.
00Z WRF-NAM THE MOST EXTREME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AND THUS WITH CAPE VALUES /EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG AT 00Z/ WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MORE MEASURED AND ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AT THAT
SAME TIME. ATTM TEND TO PREFER THE LATTER VALUES WHICH STILL
CERTAINLY LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE
ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT IS PROGGED TO INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE
AROUND 21Z. FORCING AT THAT TIME OF THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
SO 20-30 PCT POPS SHOULD HANDLE PERIOD OF INITIATION...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOVING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE CONVECTION MATURES. ALSO
EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE DRYLINE PUSH QUICKLY WWD WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POISED TO BE WORKED ON BY GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW THAT WILL STILL BE HEADED EWD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY INITIATING WEST OF I-27 AFTER 06Z. FOCUS
OF LIFT WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...BUT SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME ATTEMPTS TO BUILD SWD INTO LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
SECOND ROUND ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH HEALTHY
AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE PROGGED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
WHAT LINGERING STORMS REMAIN BY 12Z FRIDAY SHOULD MAKE AMPLE
STRIDES NEWD AND OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL JET STREAK AND PRONOUNCED DRYING/SUBSIDENCE. AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO...THE AXIS OF A 70+ KNOT 500
MB JET CORE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SERVE TO ACCELERATE
THE DRYLINE EASTWARD. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM A.M. PRECIP SHOULD EASILY
BE SCOURED OUT UNDER DRY SLOTTING AND ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH LOOKS TO RESIDE IN OUR
NERN COUNTIES BY MIDDAY. THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS DOES
LOOK RATHER SMALL IN THIS AREA PARTICULARLY WITH THE DRYLINE
SPEEDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WINDOW IS
STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW POPS BEFORE THE DRYLINE DEPARTS FOR
GOOD BEFORE 00Z. ATTM...THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IN THE SERN
PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS IS PRETTY NARROW IN TIME AND
SPACE GIVEN UTTERLY BONKERS BUNKERS STORM MOTIONS OF 50 KNOTS AND
A SPEEDY DRYLINE. THIS MOTION WOULD DISPLACE MOST STORM EMBRYOS
OUT OF OUR CWA IN RAPID FASHION BEFORE CELLS CAN FULLY MATURE
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. ON A RELATED NOTE...MOS AND SUPERBLEND WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TOO CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS POST-DRYLINE PATTERN UNDER A
STRONG JET MAXIMUM...SO HAVE NUDGED THESE VALUES UP INTO THE 25-30
MPH TERRITORY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.

ASIDE FROM SOME RESIDUAL COLD POCKET AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
IN NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE...A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRI NIGHT FROM THE NW ALL THE WHILE THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
STACKED AND NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR GOODLAND KANSAS. THIS FRONT
SHOULD SLOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL TO OUR S-W ALL IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW BY SUNDAY.
THIS BROAD POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN UNDER SLOW RE-MOISTENING
ALOFT IN SW FLOW TENDS TO FAVOR PRECIP MOSTLY IN NM THIS WEEKEND...
BUT WE HAVE RETAINED SOME LOW CHANCE MENTION IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES
FOR ANY ERRANT HIGH PLAINS DRIFTERS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PROGGED TO PEAK SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEW UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST...ALTHOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THIS LOW IS ONE OF A
WEAKENING THEME BY THIS POINT WHICH RAISES SOME CONCERN OVER THE
QUALITY OF SATURATED DEPTHS AND PWAT VALUES. AT THE VERY LEAST...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY SAT NIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THEREAFTER COULD MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO MAY
WITH MONDAY SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE PROVIDED SHOWERS PAN OUT AS
ADVERTISED. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW THEN UNFOLDS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE SPANNING THE FULL EXTENT OF
THE CANADIAN AND U.S. ROCKIES. PATTERN WISE...THESE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGES TEND TO BE A BIT MORE RESILIENT THAN MODELS INDICATE WHICH
COULD PROLONG TUESDAY/S DRYING ALL THE WAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
REGIONAL SEVERE WX PATTERN LOOKS TO UNFOLD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93




000
FXUS64 KFWD 280900
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AT
08Z WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. EXPECT
SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED BUT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITIES...SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING SOME 1 TO 1 1/2 INCH HAIL.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING.
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND MAY
MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRY LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
STRONG SHEAR...SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE
OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES...INCLUDING TORNADOES.

BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN-MOST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG DOWN
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTH ARIZONA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AFTER WHICH THE MAIN TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST.
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE
DAY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1210 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MOISTURE RETURNING RAPIDLY INTO TEXAS. IFR CIGS/VIS ARE
SPREADING NORTH FROM THE COAST AND WILL MAKE A RUN AT WACO TOWARD
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TEMPO FOR 2SM BR
FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE DFW TAF
AT THIS TIME. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  70  60  20
WACO                85  69  84  64  84 /   5  30  70  60  30
PARIS               82  64  75  65  79 /   5  70  80  60  40
DENTON              82  65  79  61  81 /   5  60  60  60  20
MCKINNEY            83  65  79  63  81 /   5  70  80  60  30
DALLAS              85  67  81  65  83 /   5  60  80  60  30
TERRELL             84  67  80  66  81 /   5  60  80  60  30
CORSICANA           86  69  83  67  82 /   5  40  80  60  40
TEMPLE              85  69  84  66  84 /   5  30  60  60  30
MINERAL WELLS       84  65  82  58  82 /   5  40  40  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/58




000
FXUS64 KSJT 280859
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
359 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

A potent shortwave trough continues to move east toward the Four
Corners early this morning. Southwesterly flow aloft will increase
over West TX today and tonight as this trough approaches. The
strong, 100 kt jet streak nosing into the Southern Rockies will
remain to our west over the next 24 hours, with the subtropical jet
extending from west to east across the Baja Peninsula will slowly
shift northeast. A warm front will lift north through the Big
Country this morning, likely settling just north of Haskell and
Throckmorton Counties by peak heating. A surface low will develop
along this boundary over the Southern High Plains, with a dryline
extending south from the triple point through the Permian Basin.

South to southeast winds today will increase to 10-20 mph, gusting
to near 30 mph at times. This will result in a rapid influx of low-
level moisture across the CWA, pushing dewpoints in the mid/upper
50s by mid afternoon. The dryline is forecast to remain west of the
CWA this afternoon. The upper-level trough remains a bit far west to
produce strong forcing for ascent over West TX. Instead, we may have
to rely on weak perturbations in the flow and peak heating to
initiate convection. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
along the dryline this afternoon, with better coverage anticipated
along/north of the warm front. Any storms that develop today
shouldn`t stray too far east of the dryline as storm motions are
forecast to be NNE at 25-30 kts. Slight chance PoPs were included
west of an Ozona, to Robert Lee, to Stamford line for this
afternoon. There should be adequate instability this afternoon to
support strong updrafts and deep-layer shear looks to be sufficient
to sustain convection. A few storms could become severe, but this
risk will be limited in areal coverage and convection may have a
difficult time moving into the CWA.

This evening, scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms, will begin
to develop in the warm sector. This convection is not expected to be
too widespread, but may increase in coverage overnight as the upper-
level trough ejects into the Plains and the low-level jet
intensifies. A few strong storms will be possible overnight, mainly
capable of marginally severe hail. We don`t anticipate significant
rainfall totals over the next 24 hours given the scattered nature of
this convection and lack of strong forcing. As far as temperatures
are concerned, expect afternoon highs in the mid 80s and overnight
lows in the mid/upper 60s.

Johnson

.LONG TERM...
(Friday and Friday Night)

An upper level trough over the southwest US this morning will move
northeast across the Southern Plains and provide lift for
thunderstorms on Friday. However, the models are indicating that
most of this activity(scattered at best in coverage)will be over the
eastern 1/3 of West Central Texas along and east of a dryline. The
combination of moderate instability, abundant low level
moisture(dewpoints in the 60s), 0- 6KM shear of 35 to 40 knots
may result in a few storms becoming severe Friday afternoon and
early evening. The best threat for severe weather will be east of
a Haskell to Sonora line. The main hazards will be large hail,
damaging winds and dangerous lightning. Will keep the chance Pops
going across most of the area. Looks like the more widespread
convection will remain east over north and central Texas. For
Friday night, lingering showers and storms will remain over the
Northwest Hill Country and Heartland and have chance Pops.

(Saturday and Sunday)

Looks like the weekend will be mainly dry with cooler temperatures
by Sunday. Temperatures will be mild Saturday with highs in the
lower to mid 80s. A cold front will move south across the area
Saturday night and cooler temperatures are expected Sunday. Highs
will range from the lower 70s across the Big Country to the lower
80s along the I-10 corridor.

(Sunday Night through Thursday)

The next upper level short wave trough will move east-northeast
across Texas early next week along with some overrunning over a
shallow cool airmass. As a result, there is another chance of rain
Sunday night through Monday night. Going with a mainly dry forecast
through the middle of the next week due to little upper level
forcing and surface high pressure over the area. Temperatures will
be cool with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Monday, warming into
the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday, and lower 80s by Thursday. Lows will
mainly be in the 50s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  67  83  57 /  10  40  40  10
San Angelo  86  69  87  56 /  10  30  30  10
Junction  86  68  86  59 /  10  30  40  40

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KMAF 280856
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
356 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low pressure system across southern Nevada will
move east across the southern Rockies through tonight. As this
occurs it will intensify and take on a negative tilt. East of
this upper low, a surface low will develop over the western high
plains region in the southwest flow aloft. Low level thermal
ridging will push temperatures well above normal this afternoon.
The backing mid level flow will draw gulf moisture northwestward
into the Permian Basin late today and tonight and the intensifying
system is expected to generate decent large scale lift as it
becomes negatively tilted. This should allow for isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms to develop along the dryline late
this afternoon in intense heating across the central/eastern
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. As the upper system becomes
negatively tilted tonight, thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage and expand westward across the remainder of the
Permian Basin and the southeast New Mexico Plains along the
retreating dryline. A few storms could be severe given bulk shear
of 40 to 45 knots with capes ranging from 1000 to 3000 j/kg.

This upper low is forecast to lift slowly northeast from the
southern Rockies into the central Plains Friday and Saturday. This
should push the precipitation east of the forecast area by Friday
afternoon through Saturday night. Breezy to windy conditions
should develop on Friday with near to slightly above normal
temperatures on Friday and Saturday as downslope flow and deep
mixing develop behind the surface system.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday and Monday. Backing mid level flow along with
increasing large scale lift will draw low level moisture
northwestward from the Gulf. Thunderstorms will once again be
possible across much of the forecast area these days and
will be enhanced by isentropic lift behind a surface cold
front and surface easterly upslope flow behind the boundary.
Behind the front high temperatures Sunday and Monday are
expected to be much below normal.

Precipitation chances should decrease behind this system
Tuesday through Thursday with isolated thunderstorms confined
to the mountains and or portions of the southeast New Mexico
Plains. Temperatures will remain cool Tuesday and Wednesday
and then climb to near normal values by next Thursday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
More dry conditions and above normal temperatures are in store
for the entire forecast area today. Since fire danger remains
high, and 20 foot wind speeds are expected to occur across the
Guadalupe Mountains and portions of the SE NM Plains, will issue a
Red Flag Warning for these areas from 28/17Z to 29/03Z. In spite
of minimum afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent roughly
along and west of a Lamesa to Midland to Sanderson line this
afternoon, 20 foot wind speeds will stay below 20 mph sustained
for the most part, except in the RFW area mentioned above. A
dryline will take shape over the eastern CWA this afternoon, and
could provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon.
Rain chances will increase tonight as the dryline surges westward
with good or better recovery roughly along and east of a Hobbs to
Big Bend line, and poor recovery to the west of this line.

The dryline will push east of the region Friday morning.
Temperatures are expected to rise near normal levels by afternoon,
but 20 foot wind speeds will likely rise above 20 mph sustained over
locations along and west of a Hobbs to Midland to Fort Stockton to
Big Bend line.  Since fire danger will still be high or better in
these areas, will issue a Fire Weather Watch from 29/16Z to 30/03Z
for most areas west of the above line.  Recovery Friday night will
be poor in most locations as low level winds remain out of the west.
High temperatures will remain above normal Saturday afternoon, but
wind speeds look too weak for additional fire weather highlights.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  63  86  53 /  20  40  10  10
Carlsbad                       88  53  80  49 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         92  64  93  61 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  92  57  85  55 /  10  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  50  70  48 /  10   0  10   0
Hobbs                          85  51  76  45 /  10  20  10   0
Marfa                          83  43  76  40 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           89  62  84  55 /  20  30  10  10
Odessa                         89  62  84  55 /  10  30  10  10
Wink                           92  56  85  52 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/12




000
FXUS64 KBRO 280726
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
226 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS FROM AROUND THE RGV
INDICATE THAT A LOW STRATUS DECK IS SPREADING STEADILY OVER THE
REGION REDUCING CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS. IN ADDITION AREAS OF
FOG AND HAZE CONTINUE TO REDUCE THE VSBYS DOWN TO THE 2 TO 5 NM
RANGE. THE LOW CLDS AND FOG/HAZE WILL PERSIST ON THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE AND THE INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL MIXING EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND CLOSER TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOW THE LOWER CEILINGS
RETURNING LATE IN THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD RESULTING IN A RETURN OF
NEAR IFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...HAZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH MOSTLY MVFR VSBYS. LOW CLOUDS RETURN THIS EVENING WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AROUND DAWN LASTING THROUGH MID MORNING. WINDS
PICK BACK UP AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ARE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE WEAK FRONT THAT
HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HAD ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO
CLEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR IS SPREADING SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND MAY MAKE IT TO THE COAST BY SUNSET WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH 30S...40S AND 50S OUT WEST.
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE ALSO PUSHED BACK THE HAZE
FROM THE AGRICULTURAL BURNS OVER THE SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING SOME IMPROVEMENT.

FAIR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOWEVER THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE SUGGEST THE FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY THIS EVENING AND BEGINS
TO RETURN AS WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW
STRATUS LAYER AND A MIX OF FOG AND HAZE TO RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW SOME TRIVIAL LOW QPF
ALONG THE WARM FRONT BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW SPRINKLES AND WILL ONLY MENTION 10 TO 14 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES LOWS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
OR JUST PRIOR TO THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE. LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE MID
60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MAYBE THE UPPER 60S IN THE RGV BUT
THEY HAVE A LONG WAY TO FALL WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 TODAY.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF CLOUDY BUT THE REGION SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE
CWA AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS MIXING OUT
SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGHS TO RECOVER WELL INTO THE 90S
ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THEN TODAY. EXPECTING THE
HAZE TO RETURN AS THE SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP WITH NO RELENT IN THE
AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE LATEST AIR QUALITY FORECAST FROM TCEQ INDICATES THAT HAZE AND
SMOKE FROM AG BURNING ONGOING IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA
WILL CONTINUE IMPACT SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LEVELS
ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE "UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS" CATEGORY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FIRST SYSTEM WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY WHILE THE SECOND SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
TUESDAY. THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS S TEXAS FRIDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE
THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN SE WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS BECOMING WINDY NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO ABOVE 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES ON THE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AT
LEAST UP TO 850MB OVER THE REGION. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
TRANSITIONING TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND MID VALLEY BUT LESS OF A
CHANCE IN THE LOWER VALLEY. AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
LIFTS NE THE WINDS QUICKLY TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE DESERT SW SUN INTO MON. MODELS
DIFFER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE THIRD LOW.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH SE FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION MAINLY FAVOR S CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONT BUT THE TIMING STILL
DIFFERS WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER AND STALLING OVER THE AREA WHILE
ECMWF SLOWS DOWN AND MOVES THROUGH THE CWA WITH A MORE N FLOW. THE
GFS ALSO IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND PLACES THE BETTER ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH AND A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THERE AS
WELL.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED SE
OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTHWARD LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTH TO EAST THE REST OF
THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING TO RETURN SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. STRONGER
WINDS DEVELOPING LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL
ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO INCREASE TO WIND CONDITIONS.
EXPECT SCEC AND CLOSE TO SCA CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD CLOSE TO 6 TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SATURDAY AND
ENHANCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WINDS
WILL RETURN QUICKLY TO THE E SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63




000
FXUS64 KEWX 280551
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1251 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS IN STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS IN BR IS SPREADING TO THE NW AT 17 KTS. THIS WILL MOVE OVER
THE I-35 TAF SITES BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z...THEN TO NEAR KDRT BETWEEN
12Z AND 13Z. STRATUS AND BR MIXES OUT BY THURSDAY MIDDAY LEADING
TO VFR SKIES. LOW END VFR CIGS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON...THEN LOWER
TO MVFR IN THE EVENING AND IFR THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...PROBS ARE LOW DUE TO STRONG CAPPING AND
HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE
LINE THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WEST
OF THE DRYLINE AND MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. GULF MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE DRYLINE RETREATING
WEST AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY ADVECTION FOG UP INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSISTING THROUGH MID-MORNING.

THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW IS TRICKY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO DIG INTO ARIZONA TOMORROW WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SUBTLE WEAK LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE AND VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES CONTRIBUTING INCREASING CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL GIVE MOST OF THE AREA AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS. IN ADDITION...SOME CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT IN VAL VERDE COUNTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
REAL QUESTION FOR BOTH AREAS WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE CAP WILL
BE ABLE TO HOLD...AS MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL NOT HAVE
ANY CHANCE OF BREAKING UNTIL THE 4-6 PM TIME PERIOD. MOST HI-RES
MODEL RUNS THUS FAR SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
BREAK THE CAP AND REMAIN SHOWERS...BUT THE LATEST NSSL-WRF HAS AT
LEAST A FEW CELLS THAT LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BREAK THE CAP IN BOTH
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW AS ANY STORMS WILL
HAVE THE CHANCE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DRY MIDLEVELS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NE INTO
COLORADO ON FRIDAY AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND A DRYLINE
PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY BY NOON ON FRIDAY. HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DECREASE CAPE VALUES CLOSER TO THE 2500 J/KG
RANGE...BUT ALSO REMOVE THE CAP ALONG THE DRYLINE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...IF NOT EVEN BY THE LATE MORNING. THUS...AT LEAST
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS
DRYLINE FEATURE WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE ADDITIONAL
PVA AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NE. BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 40 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALTHOUGH A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...SRH VALUES CURRENTLY ARE NOT
TOO IMPRESSIVE AND COVERAGE MAY BE TOO WIDESPREAD TO ALLOW FOR
MAINTAINING DISCRETE STORM ENVIRONMENTS FOR LONG. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SHOULD STILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH
CAPE VALUES AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE STORMS. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION...WITH WHICH BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL...RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TOWARDS
3 INCHES FOR THOSE SPOTS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM
BOTH WAVES. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL EVALUATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL FURTHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE GENERALLY A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT ON
PUSHING IT THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND COASTAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE EURO IS
GENERALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND COOLER PAST SATURDAY THAN THE GFS
WHICH CLINGS TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SLOWER
MOVING FRONT IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT MOST SPOTS SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. WHETHER OR NOT THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
ONLY ELEVATED CAPE OR SOME SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO TAP INTO WILL
DEPEND UPON WHETHER THE COOLER EURO OR WARMER GFS VERIFIES. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS MODEL
MODELS SUGGEST DRIER AIR AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  86  68  84  63 /  40  50  60  50  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  86  68  84  62 /  40  50  60  60  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  87  68  84  63 /  30  50  60  50  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  85  65  84  60 /  40  50  60  40  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  91  62  90  62 /  30  30  30  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  85  67  84  61 /  40  50  60  50  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  87  68  87  62 /  30  40  50  40  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  87  68  84  63 /  30  50  60  60  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  87  71  82  66 /  30  40  60  70  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  87  68  84  64 /  30  50  60  40  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  88  70  86  65 /  30  50  60  50  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KCRP 280537 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1237 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...POOR FLIGHT RULES XPCTD MOST OF TONIGHT THRU MID MRNG
THU. STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS CONTINUES TO SPREAD WWRD ACROSS S TX
WITH HAZE/SMOKE PARTICULATE MATTER FROM YUCATAN MX AG BURNS
TRAPPED UNDER STRATUS LAYER...RESULTING IN IFR/MVFR VSBYS. KVCT
MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE LIFR/VLIFR VSBYS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE STRATUS SPREADS OVERHEAD. KLRD TO START TAF PERIOD WITH
VFR CONDITIONS...BUT IFR STRATUS DECK XPCTD TO SPREAD ACROSS
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. SLOW RISE THURS MRNG TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
VFR CONDITIONS /THOUGH UPPER END MVFR VSBYS MAY PREVAIL DUE TO
HZ/ ACROSS THE REGION. POOR FLIGHT RULES TO REDVLP ALONG THE COAST
AGAIN /AND SPREAD INLAND/ THURS EVENING. WEAK ESERLY SFC WINDS
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT BECMG SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTY DRNG
THE DAY THURS. ISO TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING...BUT COVERAGE/CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN
TAFS ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  87  77  86  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          70  87  74  86  74  /  10  20  10  30  20
LAREDO            71 100  76  99  74  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             69  91  76  93  75  /  10  20  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          75  81  75  83  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           65  95  73  95  72  /   0  20  10  30  20
KINGSVILLE        72  90  77  92  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  84  77  82  76  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KFWD 280510 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1210 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MOISTURE RETURNING RAPIDLY INTO TEXAS. IFR CIGS/VIS ARE
SPREADING NORTH FROM THE COAST AND WILL MAKE A RUN AT WACO TOWARD
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TEMPO FOR 2SM BR
FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE DFW TAF
AT THIS TIME. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT LAST NIGHT`S STORMS MOVES EAST
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER...RAIN/STORMS AND A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FILTER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCATIONS WHERE SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPS LATE NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL START TO RETURN NORTH DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN NEW MEXICO
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE RESULTING
IN DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 6-8 C/KM IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THAT SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND A THREAT
FOR ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BUT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
AT TIMES. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES ARE
ANTICIPATED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY REMAIN A
CHALLENGE BUT BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OUR THINKING IS
THAT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS
ONE PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE WHERE
THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF A COMBINATION OF ORGANIZED AND
DISORGANIZED STORMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A LOW TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM ON THE DRYLINE
TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...POSSIBLY EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A
LINEAR MODE THAT MOVES EAST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE
DO NOT ANTICIPATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE BUT RESIDENTS
STILL NEED TO BE AWARE AND PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK.

ON SATURDAY...THE DRYLINE WILL STILL BE IN THE REGION AND A COLD
FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE AND PUSH IT EAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE COULD SEE MORE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION IF THE ATMOSPHERE
IS ABLE TO RECOVER FROM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTION. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BUT THESE MAY NEED TO
BE REDUCED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY BUT RAIN RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    67  81  68  83  60 /  50  50  60  40  10
WACO                70  83  68  81  61 /  40  50  60  50  10
PARIS               65  75  67  76  59 /  60  60  60  60  20
DENTON              66  79  63  80  57 /  60  60  60  30  10
MCKINNEY            65  79  65  80  59 /  60  60  60  40  10
DALLAS              69  81  69  82  61 /  50  50  60  40  10
TERRELL             67  82  69  79  60 /  50  50  60  50  10
CORSICANA           69  83  68  80  62 /  50  50  60  60  20
TEMPLE              70  84  66  81  62 /  40  40  60  60  10
MINERAL WELLS       66  83  62  81  56 /  50  50  50  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 280510 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1210 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MOISTURE RETURNING RAPIDLY INTO TEXAS. IFR CIGS/VIS ARE
SPREADING NORTH FROM THE COAST AND WILL MAKE A RUN AT WACO TOWARD
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TEMPO FOR 2SM BR
FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT OF THE DFW TAF
AT THIS TIME. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT LAST NIGHT`S STORMS MOVES EAST
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER...RAIN/STORMS AND A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY.

DRIER AIR MARKED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FILTER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCATIONS WHERE SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPS LATE NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL START TO RETURN NORTH DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN NEW MEXICO
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE RESULTING
IN DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 6-8 C/KM IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THAT SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND A THREAT
FOR ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BUT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
AT TIMES. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES ARE
ANTICIPATED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY REMAIN A
CHALLENGE BUT BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OUR THINKING IS
THAT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE LIFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS
ONE PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE WHERE
THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF A COMBINATION OF ORGANIZED AND
DISORGANIZED STORMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A LOW TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM ON THE DRYLINE
TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...POSSIBLY EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A
LINEAR MODE THAT MOVES EAST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE
DO NOT ANTICIPATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT TO BE AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE BUT RESIDENTS
STILL NEED TO BE AWARE AND PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK.

ON SATURDAY...THE DRYLINE WILL STILL BE IN THE REGION AND A COLD
FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE AND PUSH IT EAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE COULD SEE MORE STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION IF THE ATMOSPHERE
IS ABLE TO RECOVER FROM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTION. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BUT THESE MAY NEED TO
BE REDUCED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY BUT RAIN RETURNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    67  81  68  83  60 /  50  50  60  40  10
WACO                70  83  68  81  61 /  40  50  60  50  10
PARIS               65  75  67  76  59 /  60  60  60  60  20
DENTON              66  79  63  80  57 /  60  60  60  30  10
MCKINNEY            65  79  65  80  59 /  60  60  60  40  10
DALLAS              69  81  69  82  61 /  50  50  60  40  10
TERRELL             67  82  69  79  60 /  50  50  60  50  10
CORSICANA           69  83  68  80  62 /  50  50  60  60  20
TEMPLE              70  84  66  81  62 /  40  40  60  60  10
MINERAL WELLS       66  83  62  81  56 /  50  50  50  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 280510
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1210 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours at all
terminals, except perhaps KMAF early Friday morning.  MVFR ceilings
may develop and spread northwest over KMAF, but since this will
occur near the end of the current forecast period will forego
inclusion.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  83  53  81 /  40  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       53  80  49  81 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                         64  93  61  88 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  57  85  55  83 /  20  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  69  48  71 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          51  76  45  77 /  30  10   0  10
Marfa                          43  76  40  76 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           62  84  55  82 /  40  10  10   0
Odessa                         62  84  55  82 /  30  10  10   0
Wink                           56  85  52  84 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM MDT Thursday through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today through this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 280510
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1210 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours at all
terminals, except perhaps KMAF early Friday morning.  MVFR ceilings
may develop and spread northwest over KMAF, but since this will
occur near the end of the current forecast period will forego
inclusion.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  83  53  81 /  40  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       53  80  49  81 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                         64  93  61  88 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  57  85  55  83 /  20  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  69  48  71 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          51  76  45  77 /  30  10   0  10
Marfa                          43  76  40  76 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           62  84  55  82 /  40  10  10   0
Odessa                         62  84  55  82 /  30  10  10   0
Wink                           56  85  52  84 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM MDT Thursday through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today through this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 280502 AAB
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1202 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours
at the TAF sites. With the return of low-level southerly flow,
low-level moisture will begin to increase overnight and continue
on Thursday. Believe that this will begin a little too late to
allow for low cloud development or expansion as far north or
northwest as our area. Anticipate that a cumulus field should
develop over some of our southern and southeastern counties during
the afternoon Thursday. The chance for any shower/thunderstorm
development looks too low for a mention at any of the TAF sites
prior to 00Z. South to southeast winds will increase Thursday
morning and become gusty through the remainder of the day.

Shower/thunderstorm chances are problematic Thursday night,
with placement uncertainty. The higher chance appears to be
after 06Z, and may be focused on our far western and northern
counties. At this time, have included a Prob30 group for KABI
after 03Z. Low-level moisture surge should result in low cloud
development prior to 06Z at our southern TAF sites and KBBD, with
MVFR ceilings.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 652 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours
at the TAF sites. With the return of low-level southerly flow,
low-level moisture will begin to increase overnight and continue
on Thursday. Believe that this will begin a little too late to
allow for low cloud development or expansion as far north as our
area. Anticipate that a cumulus field should develop over some
of our southern and southeastern counties during the afternoon
Thursday. The chance for any shower/thunderstorm development
looks too low for a mention at any of the TAF sites prior to
00Z. Light winds this evening will become southeast tonight at
KABI and south at the other TAF sites. South to southeast winds
will increase Thursday morning and become gusty through the
remainder of the day.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

High pressure dominating West Central Texas tonight, will quickly
give way to another upper trough for tomorrow. Winds tonight will be
light and variable, and lows will be mainly in the mid 50s. For
tomorrow, high pressure will quickly shift east, as another upper
disturbance moves into the region. Although the better rain chances
will not begin until tomorrow night, a few of our counties, across
the northwestern big country may see some showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon. Also, tomorrow afternoon some locations across
our Northwest Hill Country may see showers and thunderstorms.
However, will continue only slight chances PoPs for these two small
areas for tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, winds will be from the
southeast to south in the 10 to 15 mph range, and highs will be
mainly in the upper 80s to around 90.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night though Wednesday)

The next in a series of upper level troughs will be centered over
the Four Corners area by Thursday night with a resultant southwest
flow aloft over the forecast area. With the dryline resting along
out western CWA border, showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing
Thursday night across most of the forecast area. As the upper low
moves east on Friday, the dryline will push east across the
forecast area during the day on Friday with associated showers and
thunderstorms ending from west to east through Friday night. By
Saturday afternoon the forecast will be dry with the dry weather
continuing into Sunday. Highs on Friday will be in the mid to
upper 80s with post-Pacific cold frontal highs on Saturday ranging
from the upper 70s to around 80 in the Big Country to the mid 80s
along the Intestate 10 corridor.

The next upper trough will be centered over the Four Corners area
by Sunday night. The upper low will be pushed north toward the
Pacific Northwest as an upper ridge moves east over the California
coastline and edges eastward over the spine of the Rockies by
Wednesday. In the meantime, the dryline will retreat well west of
the forecast area with abundant low level moisture remaining
entrenched over Texas and a chance of rainfall continuing over the
forecast area into mid-week. Afternoon highs under mostly cloudy
and rainy skies will remain in the 70s Monday through Wednesday
with morning lows remaining in the 50s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  56  88  66  84 /   0  10  40  40
San Angelo  55  90  67  87 /   0   5  30  30
Junction  55  88  69  86 /   0  20  30  40

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 280444
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1144 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT INLAND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE MOIST AIRMASS TO WORK ITS WAY
INLAND...AND CHANCES FOR MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER INLAND. KEPT THE TIMING OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN PLACE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING PERIOD. THE MODELS DO MOVE A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER
KCLL AND KUTS THURSDAY EVENING WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM HOUSTON TO THE COAST.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES NEAR 0.90 INCHES AT CRP AND 1.36
INCHES AT LCH. ONSHORE HAS RESUMED AND LOW LEVEL MSTR IS ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING BENEATH A WEAK CAP. AT 850 MB...A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS WAS NOTED ALONG THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MSTR LEVELS AT
BOTH BRO AND LCH. NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES OF NOTE AT
700-300 MB. SREF ENSEMBLES FAVOR FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SW ZONES. KARM AND KBYY ALREADY DOWN TO 5SM SO ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS AS WELL WITH A LOW
OVERCAST POSSIBLE.

LOOKING AHEAD...PW VALUES REACH 2.00 INCHES LATE FRIDAY AND WINDS
ALOFT BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT. AS PREV FCSTER NOTED...LOOKS
LIKE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN
FRI-SUN. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE LOCALLY HEAVY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. 43

CLIMATE...
THE CITY OF HOUSTON HAS RECORDED ITS WETTEST MAR 1ST THRU APR
27TH IN CITY HISTORY. HOUSTON HAS RECEIVED 17.03 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE MAR 1ST...THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 15.88 INCHES BACK IN 1922.
OTHER COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE SET SIMILAR RECORDS INCLUDE SUGAR LAND
(18.62 INCHES)...HOU WESTBURY (18.09 INCHES) AND COLUMBUS (18.79
INCHES). MANY OF THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL RECORDS OCCURRED JUST LAST
YEAR. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY LEFT OVER ALONG THE COAST FROM STORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WAS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN DRIER AIR
INLAND AND MORE MOIST AIR OFF THE COAST. CHANCES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WILL INCREASE AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT -- SOME LOW CEILINGS WERE ALREADY NOTED AT KGLS AND KLBX
AT 23Z. THE HIGH RES MODELS AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO
INDICATING GOOD CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AS WELL. KEPT THE FOG
FORMATION TRENDS BEST IN THE SITES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND
OUTSIDE OF HOUSTON PROPER. THE MODELS AND GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWED
LOWER CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AT KCLL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...WITH MVFR LINGERING UNTIL 17Z FROM
KIAH TO KGLS. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWED GOOD CHANCES FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BETWEEN KCLL TO THE
METRO HOUSTON SITES AND KLBX.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE NORM AROUND SOUTHEAST TX AS
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO NRN CA ESSENTIALLY REPLACES UPPER SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS SQUALL LINE AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAVE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LEADING IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATE SQUALL LINE STABILIZED CONDITIONS
AROUND SERN TX TODAY AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-20% RANGE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DETAILS REMAIN A
BIT MURKY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE BACK IN
PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HIT THE
AREA WITH QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG SWLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...SHEAR WILL ALSO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION/SEVERE TSTMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SEVERE RISK MAY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY WITH
BETTER CHANCE ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME HEAVY
RAINS IF WE GET ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING FROM ORGANIZED
STORMS. CURRENTLY EXPECT A GENERAL 2-3" RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF
THE NRN COUNTIES WITH THIS EVENT...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS MUCH HIGHER.
STILL A LOT TO COME TOGETHER TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS...BUT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS.

MARINE...
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS MORNINGS STORM SYSTEM STILL FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND AND GALVESTON. WILL ADD SCEC FOR
GALVESTON EASTWARD 0-20NM THROUGH 7 PM. WINDS OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS. THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS INCREASE AND WILL
PROBABLY NEED SCECS FOR THE GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS NEAR BOLIVAR
SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER TONIGHT BUT WILL BE CLOSE AND BY THURSDAY
EVENING MAY HAVE ISSUES ON HIGHWAY 87.

GRADIENT COULD TIGHTEN UP BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY AS NEXT MORE POTENT
STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES WHICH WOULD WARRANT SCEC AND POSSIBLY SCA WITH
SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. TIDE IMPACTS AS WELL BUT ONLY MARGINALLY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...AND PROBABLY JUST TO HIGHWAY 87`S FLOOD PRONE
AREA.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  87  73  86  71 /  10  20  40  40  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  87  74  86  74 /  10  20  30  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  76  81  76 /  10  10  20  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KAMA 280356
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1056 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...GUSTY WINDS...AND CONVECTION. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET NEAR THE KAMA TERMINAL COULD LEAD TO A
WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL WINDS INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK.
KDHT WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER JET SO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONCERNS ARE TO LOW TO MENTION IN PREVAILING.

WINDS WILL COME UP TOMORROW AROUND DAYBREAK AND WILL STAY UP THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 30KT
FROM A EAST-SOUTHEAST. TOMORROW EVENING WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION NEAR THE TERMINALS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING FOR KAMA AND KDHT BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH
TO INSERT VICINITY WORDING FOR KGUY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALMER WINDS UNTIL ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND BRINGS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE PRESSURES WILL FALL TO OUR WEST TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...AND WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH KEY SURFACE FEATURES SUCH AS THE PLACEMENT
AND STRENGTH OF FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...AND RESULTANT
SURFACE WINDS IN ITS WAKE...AND ALSO THE MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM WITH STRONGER
6 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF 8-10 MB ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. 12Z GFS HAS A LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO OUR AREA SIMILAR TO THE NAM NOW ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WHERE THE NAM SHOWS. THE MAIN CONTRIBUTER IS
AGGRESSIVE RETURN ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 55-60 DEGREE DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTENING
AND AFTERNOON HEATING CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE NAM
BY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE OVERDONE. DEW POINTS IN THE NAM SEEM
EXAGGERATED AND OUR GRIDS CURRENTLY REPRESENT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE MORE TEMPERED GFS/ECMWF AND THE NAM. THIS SEEMS TO BE A MORE
REALISTIC FORECAST AND WOULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO DECENT INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CAMS INCLUDING SPC CAM ENSEMBLE
SUPPORTS THIS CONCEPT AND GENERATES ISO/SCT CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES BY 21Z. IF THUNDERSTORMS FORM THEY COULD BE
SEVERE. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND INCREASING DEEP/EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH
PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A TORNADO OR TWO
WOULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH AS MUCH MOISTURE AS THE NAM DEPICTS
(LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 1KM). A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT WOULD BE LIMITED
BY FAIRLY WEAK SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE BY THEN. THE
06Z RUN OF THE GFS WAS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE AND
FURTHER SOUTH RESTRICTING MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE PANHANDLES AS WAS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ABOVE. IN ALL MODELS SOME SEMBLANCE OF THIS
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE FORM OF A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. PLACEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR SPATIAL DETAILS ON CONVECTION THAT MAY
FORM LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND WHERE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OCCURS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THE THREAT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL BE LATE AND STILL QUITE CONDITIONAL. WEAK FORCING FROM
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL BE PRESENT AND PROBABLY SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION IF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE ENOUGH BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT DURING THE EVENING CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY
AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SATURATION OCCURS ON 300-305K SURFACES.
MODELS AGREE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORTING HIGH
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BUT SPATIAL DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
WERE PLACED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND TAPERED TO CHANCE
PROBABILITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST SINCE THAT PORTION OF THE AREA IS MOST
LIKELY TO BE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. GLANCING AT THE 18Z NAM
SUGGESTS THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT MAY BE FURTHER NORTH INTO KANSAS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ABOVE
AN INCREASINGLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR (40-50 KNOTS) AS MID-
LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES OVER THE REGION WOULD SUPPORT A MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH MIXING
THE DRYLINE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. MUCH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...UNTIL BETTER CHANCES
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MONDAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED DUE TO EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PATTERNS LEADING INTO THE MID
WEEK TIME FRAME...AND THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...BREEZY WINDS
AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT COULD
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                45  79  51  73  41 /   0  10  60  20  10
BEAVER OK                  41  70  50  59  41 /   0  10  80  70  40
BOISE CITY OK              39  66  46  53  36 /   0  10  80  60  20
BORGER TX                  47  77  54  70  41 /   0  20  60  40  10
BOYS RANCH TX              46  81  49  70  40 /   0  10  30  20  10
CANYON TX                  44  81  50  74  41 /   0  10  50  20  10
CLARENDON TX               47  80  56  78  45 /   0  20  70  40  10
DALHART TX                 42  75  49  63  37 /   0  10  40  30  20
GUYMON OK                  42  70  50  57  38 /   0  20  80  60  30
HEREFORD TX                44  82  49  73  41 /   0  10  40  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                43  72  55  70  42 /   0  20  80  70  40
PAMPA TX                   46  76  53  74  42 /   0  20  70  40  20
SHAMROCK TX                47  78  58  81  46 /   0  20  70  60  30
WELLINGTON TX              49  82  60  84  48 /   0  20  70  50  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/3




000
FXUS64 KMAF 280323
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1023 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Sfc observations show that, while critical RHs remain over much of
the region, 20` winds have decoupled. We`ll do a quick update for
the expiration of the RFW, and update other parameters as
necessary.  Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Breezy
southwest winds this evening will become light and back toward the
south overnight. Expect winds to increase to around 12-15KT
sustained by late morning/early afternoon Thursday, with gusts to
around 20-25KT possible for most terminals, though FST and PEQ
will likely see winds remain under 12KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 218 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The upper level trough that brought severe weather to the far
eastern Permian Basin yesterday continues to shift off to the
northeast. Dry, westerly flow has developed across the area in its
wake with temperatures warming into the 80`s this afternoon. Our
next weather maker will dig over the Four Corners Thursday and help
transition flow aloft across the region to the southwest. A surface
low will develop over the area and help pull in Gulf moisture during
the day Thursday. Large scale ascent and increasing lift will pull a
dryline back west across the region Thursday evening. There is still
a chance we may see a few storms form on the dryline Thursday night,
but models continue to be hesitant in showing too much QPF. A
strong LLJ will develop amid steepening lapse rates so any storms
that do develop may become severe with large hail and damaging
winds.

The upper trough will take a similar path to today`s system and lift
into the Plains Friday into Saturday. Again we will see dry westerly
flow take over with more fire weather concerns entering the picture
Friday afternoon. Winds are expected to increase significantly
across the Guadalupe Mountains Friday so have issued a High Wind
Watch. Models had been differing early next week with respect to
another upper system developing to our west. The GFS has now come
back into better agreement with the ECMWF and both now show a strong
cold front moving through with widespread precip Sunday into
Monday. Will continue to monitor this time period as changes to
the forecast over the next few days are likely.

FIRE WEATHER...

It has already become windy today in the Guadalupe Mountains but
low RH is still lacking... it should fall below 15 percent this
afternoon so will leave the Red Flag warning in effect into this
evening. Marginal fire wx conditions are possible across SE NM on
Thursday. It will be warmer Thursday which should help it reach RH
below 15 percent... but 20ft wind may not reach needed criteria.
Will leave the Fire Weather Watch in effect for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  87  63  83 /   0  10  40  10
Carlsbad                       51  89  53  80 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                         62  92  64  93 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  57  94  57  85 /   0  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 49  80  50  69 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          51  86  51  76 /   0  10  30  10
Marfa                          44  84  43  76 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           59  91  62  84 /   0  10  40  10
Odessa                         58  91  62  84 /   0  10  30  10
Wink                           49  95  56  85 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

84/44




000
FXUS64 KHGX 280233
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
933 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES NEAR 0.90 INCHES AT CRP AND 1.36
INCHES AT LCH. ONSHORE HAS RESUMED AND LOW LEVEL MSTR IS ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING BENEATH A WEAK CAP. AT 850 MB...A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS WAS NOTED ALONG THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MSTR LEVELS AT
BOTH BRO AND LCH. NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES OF NOTE AT
700-300 MB. SREF ENSEMBLES FAVOR FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SW ZONES. KARM AND KBYY ALREADY DOWN TO 5SM SO ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS AS WELL WITH A LOW
OVERCAST POSSIBLE.

LOOKING AHEAD...PW VALUES REACH 2.00 INCHES LATE FRIDAY AND WINDS
ALOFT BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT. AS PREV FCSTER NOTED...LOOKS
LIKE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN
FRI-SUN. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE LOCALLY HEAVY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. 43

.CLIMATE...
THE CITY OF HOUSTON HAS RECORDED ITS WETTEST MAR 1ST THRU APR
27TH IN CITY HISTORY. HOUSTON HAS RECEIVED 17.03 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE MAR 1ST...THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 15.88 INCHES BACK IN 1922.
OTHER COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE SET SIMILAR RECORDS INCLUDE SUGAR LAND
(18.62 INCHES)...HOU WESTBURY (18.09 INCHES) AND COLUMBUS (18.79
INCHES). MANY OF THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL RECORDS OCCURRED JUST LAST
YEAR. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY LEFT OVER ALONG THE COAST FROM STORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WAS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN DRIER AIR
INLAND AND MORE MOIST AIR OFF THE COAST. CHANCES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WILL INCREASE AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT -- SOME LOW CEILINGS WERE ALREADY NOTED AT KGLS AND KLBX
AT 23Z. THE HIGH RES MODELS AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO
INDICATING GOOD CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AS WELL. KEPT THE FOG
FORMATION TRENDS BEST IN THE SITES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND
OUTSIDE OF HOUSTON PROPER. THE MODELS AND GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWED
LOWER CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AT KCLL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...WITH MVFR LINGERING UNTIL 17Z FROM
KIAH TO KGLS. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWED GOOD CHANCES FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BETWEEN KCLL TO THE
METRO HOUSTON SITES AND KLBX.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE NORM AROUND SOUTHEAST TX AS
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO NRN CA ESSENTIALLY REPLACES UPPER SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS SQUALL LINE AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAVE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LEADING IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATE SQUALL LINE STABILIZED CONDITIONS
AROUND SERN TX TODAY AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-20% RANGE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DETAILS REMAIN A
BIT MURKY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE BACK IN
PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HIT THE
AREA WITH QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG SWLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...SHEAR WILL ALSO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION/SEVERE TSTMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SEVERE RISK MAY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY WITH
BETTER CHANCE ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME HEAVY
RAINS IF WE GET ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING FROM ORGANIZED
STORMS. CURRENTLY EXPECT A GENERAL 2-3" RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF
THE NRN COUNTIES WITH THIS EVENT...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS MUCH HIGHER.
STILL A LOT TO COME TOGETHER TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS...BUT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS.

MARINE...
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS MORNINGS STORM SYSTEM STILL FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND AND GALVESTON. WILL ADD SCEC FOR
GALVESTON EASTWARD 0-20NM THROUGH 7 PM. WINDS OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS. THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS INCREASE AND WILL
PROBABLY NEED SCECS FOR THE GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS NEAR BOLIVAR
SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER TONIGHT BUT WILL BE CLOSE AND BY THURSDAY
EVENING MAY HAVE ISSUES ON HIGHWAY 87.

GRADIENT COULD TIGHTEN UP BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY AS NEXT MORE POTENT
STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES WHICH WOULD WARRANT SCEC AND POSSIBLY SCA WITH
SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. TIDE IMPACTS AS WELL BUT ONLY MARGINALLY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...AND PROBABLY JUST TO HIGHWAY 87`S FLOOD PRONE
AREA.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  87  73  86  71 /  10  20  40  40  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  87  74  86  74 /  10  20  30  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  76  81  76 /  10  10  20  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 280233
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
933 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES NEAR 0.90 INCHES AT CRP AND 1.36
INCHES AT LCH. ONSHORE HAS RESUMED AND LOW LEVEL MSTR IS ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING BENEATH A WEAK CAP. AT 850 MB...A WEAK TROUGH
AXIS WAS NOTED ALONG THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MSTR LEVELS AT
BOTH BRO AND LCH. NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES OF NOTE AT
700-300 MB. SREF ENSEMBLES FAVOR FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SW ZONES. KARM AND KBYY ALREADY DOWN TO 5SM SO ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS AS WELL WITH A LOW
OVERCAST POSSIBLE.

LOOKING AHEAD...PW VALUES REACH 2.00 INCHES LATE FRIDAY AND WINDS
ALOFT BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT. AS PREV FCSTER NOTED...LOOKS
LIKE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN
FRI-SUN. SOME OF THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE LOCALLY HEAVY IN SOME
LOCATIONS. 43

.CLIMATE...
THE CITY OF HOUSTON HAS RECORDED ITS WETTEST MAR 1ST THRU APR
27TH IN CITY HISTORY. HOUSTON HAS RECEIVED 17.03 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE MAR 1ST...THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 15.88 INCHES BACK IN 1922.
OTHER COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE SET SIMILAR RECORDS INCLUDE SUGAR LAND
(18.62 INCHES)...HOU WESTBURY (18.09 INCHES) AND COLUMBUS (18.79
INCHES). MANY OF THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL RECORDS OCCURRED JUST LAST
YEAR. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY LEFT OVER ALONG THE COAST FROM STORMS THAT MOVED
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WAS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN DRIER AIR
INLAND AND MORE MOIST AIR OFF THE COAST. CHANCES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WILL INCREASE AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT -- SOME LOW CEILINGS WERE ALREADY NOTED AT KGLS AND KLBX
AT 23Z. THE HIGH RES MODELS AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES WERE ALSO
INDICATING GOOD CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AS WELL. KEPT THE FOG
FORMATION TRENDS BEST IN THE SITES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND
OUTSIDE OF HOUSTON PROPER. THE MODELS AND GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWED
LOWER CHANCES FOR FOG FORMATION AT KCLL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...WITH MVFR LINGERING UNTIL 17Z FROM
KIAH TO KGLS. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWED GOOD CHANCES FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BETWEEN KCLL TO THE
METRO HOUSTON SITES AND KLBX.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE NORM AROUND SOUTHEAST TX AS
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO NRN CA ESSENTIALLY REPLACES UPPER SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHTS SQUALL LINE AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAVE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LEADING IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATE SQUALL LINE STABILIZED CONDITIONS
AROUND SERN TX TODAY AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 10-20% RANGE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DETAILS REMAIN A
BIT MURKY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE BACK IN
PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HIT THE
AREA WITH QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG SWLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...SHEAR WILL ALSO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION/SEVERE TSTMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SEVERE RISK MAY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY WITH
BETTER CHANCE ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME HEAVY
RAINS IF WE GET ANY TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING FROM ORGANIZED
STORMS. CURRENTLY EXPECT A GENERAL 2-3" RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF
THE NRN COUNTIES WITH THIS EVENT...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS MUCH HIGHER.
STILL A LOT TO COME TOGETHER TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS...BUT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS.

MARINE...
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS MORNINGS STORM SYSTEM STILL FAIRLY
STRONG SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND AND GALVESTON. WILL ADD SCEC FOR
GALVESTON EASTWARD 0-20NM THROUGH 7 PM. WINDS OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS. THURSDAY NIGHT WINDS INCREASE AND WILL
PROBABLY NEED SCECS FOR THE GULF WATERS. TIDE LEVELS NEAR BOLIVAR
SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER TONIGHT BUT WILL BE CLOSE AND BY THURSDAY
EVENING MAY HAVE ISSUES ON HIGHWAY 87.

GRADIENT COULD TIGHTEN UP BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY AS NEXT MORE POTENT
STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES WHICH WOULD WARRANT SCEC AND POSSIBLY SCA WITH
SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. TIDE IMPACTS AS WELL BUT ONLY MARGINALLY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...AND PROBABLY JUST TO HIGHWAY 87`S FLOOD PRONE
AREA.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  87  73  86  71 /  10  20  40  40  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              69  87  74  86  74 /  10  20  30  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  76  81  76 /  10  10  20  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KCRP 280224 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
924 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS. VISIBILITIES ARE
LOWERING ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AS HAZE AND LIGHT FOG DEVELOP.
SHOULD EXPECT ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT FARTHER INLAND AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDSPEEDS UP A BIT...BUT INLAND
FROM ALICE TO VICTORIA WINDS MAY WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER...WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES LATER IN THE NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR...TO POSSIBLE LIFR...OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE
RETURNS. HAZY CONDITIONS FROM SMOKE TRAPPED OVER THE GULF WATERS
FROM MEXICAN FIRES WILL SLOWLY MOVE BACK ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE E-SE FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
VISIBILITIES TO FURTHER DECREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY
FROM ALI-VCT BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH CIGS ALSO DEVELOPING. CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT MID MORNING...YET REMAIN BKN AND FLUCTUATE
AROUND 3K FEET THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LAREDO...WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE WEAK
FRONTAL BDRY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. THE BDRY IS
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AS IT SHIFTS INLAND OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
WINDS BECOMING E AND SE OVERNIGHT. THE E-SE WIND WILL USHER THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK TO THE WEST. MUCH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL
ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOG/LOW STRATUS TO DVLP
OVERNIGHT. THE NAM VSBY PRODUCT SHOWS 1/4SM VSBY INITIATING ALONG
THE COAST THEN SHIFTING W OVERNIGHT WHILE THE COAST IMPROVES.
HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING THAT FOG WILL DVLP E AND SPREAD W BUT THE
LOWER VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED INLAND FROM THE COAST AND
EXTEND TO THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VCT CROSSROADS. LIGHTER PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED ACROSS LRD TO COT AREAS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AS WATER TEMPS ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. IN
ADDITION...SMOKE FROM SRN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO S TX
THROUGH THU. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG/HAZE IN PLACE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING. HOWEVER...PATCHY HAZE MAY STILL LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE CWA. THE AIRMASS IS PROGD TO BE VERY
UNSTABLE ON THU AND A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FEATURES THAT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION WILL BE THE CAP AND
LIMITED MOISTURE. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY/SHORT WAVE...FELT AT LEAST
A 20 POP SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LEAST CAPPED AREA. SFC
WINDS ARE FCST TO STRENGTHEN A TAD THU AND THU NIGHT FROM THE SE
WHICH SHOULD CURTAIL FOG FROM DVLPG BUT KEPT THE MENTION OF HAZE.

AS FOR TIDES...LATEST TIDE LEVELS AT BOB HALL PIER WERE RUNNING
APPROX 1FT ABV PREDICTED WHICH BRIEFLY PUT THEM NEAR 2FT ABV MSL
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLIER TODAY. THIS WAS DUE TO A WAKE
LOW DVLPG BEHIND A LINE OF CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FROM THE E AND SE
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD COUNTER THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS.
HOWEVER...IF THE TIDES REMAIN APPROX 1FT ABV PREDICTED THEN TIDES
MAY BE AROUND 1.8FT ABV MSL AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE THU
MORNING.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NEXT UPPER SYS SWINGS THRU
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY ONTO SATURDAY.
ON FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SYS AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF WIDELY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION INLAND AREAS.
BETTER INSTABILITY/LIFT AND A TRIGGER IN THE FORM OF A FRONT ON
SATURDAY SO POPS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER.  BETTER RAIN CHANCES IN THE
DEEPER MSTR OVER THE NORTHEAST.  SOME EVIDENCE THAT AN MCS COULD
FORM OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX AND DIVE TOWARD NE SXNS LATE FRI NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  IF THIS OCCURS IT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG WINDS AND ALSO PUSH OUR RAIN CHANCES TO MAINLY IN THE
MORNING.  WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE AT THIS POINT.  SFC LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL RESULT IN TYPICALLY BREEZY INFLOW WINDS OFF
THE GULF...ESPLY FRI WHEN SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY.  MEX TEMPS LOOK
RSNBL.

WE LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR SUNDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS THEN
THE NEXT UPPER SYS RELOADS INTO THE SW CONUS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A
RETURN FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE MON-WED TIME FRAME ALONG WITH
A RETURN TO GUSTY SSE FLOW.  WENT ABOVE WPC TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD BY A DEG OR TWO FOR HIGHS AND STAYED CLOSE ON LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  87  77  86  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          70  87  74  86  74  /  10  20  10  30  20
LAREDO            71 100  76  99  74  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             69  91  76  93  75  /  10  20  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          75  81  75  83  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           65  95  73  95  72  /   0  20  10  30  20
KINGSVILLE        72  90  77  92  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  84  77  82  76  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM




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