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000
FXUS64 KCRP 020604 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
104 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM PKV-VCT-COT. KEPT VCSH AT VCT MAINLY DUE TO
THE FRONT ALREADY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WITH CONVECTION ROUGHLY
SOUTH OF THE SITE AND WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO MOVE IN.
TRENDED DEVELOPMENT AT ALI-CRP AFTER 09Z...WITH REDEVELOPMENT AT
LRD AFTER 12Z. CONTINUED VCTS BY MID-MORNING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND ACTIVITY (WITH EXCEPTION OF
LRD). OTHERWISE...BKN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  95  74  94  74  /  10  20  20  20  10
VICTORIA          75  95  73  94  73  /  10  20  10  20  10
LAREDO            78  99  80 100  79  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74  98  73  97  73  /  10  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          78  91  78  91  77  /  10  20  20  20  10
COTULLA           75  98  76  98  75  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  97  74  95  75  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  91  78  91  78  /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 020604 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
104 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM PKV-VCT-COT. KEPT VCSH AT VCT MAINLY DUE TO
THE FRONT ALREADY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WITH CONVECTION ROUGHLY
SOUTH OF THE SITE AND WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO MOVE IN.
TRENDED DEVELOPMENT AT ALI-CRP AFTER 09Z...WITH REDEVELOPMENT AT
LRD AFTER 12Z. CONTINUED VCTS BY MID-MORNING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND ACTIVITY (WITH EXCEPTION OF
LRD). OTHERWISE...BKN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  95  74  94  74  /  10  20  20  20  10
VICTORIA          75  95  73  94  73  /  10  20  10  20  10
LAREDO            78  99  80 100  79  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74  98  73  97  73  /  10  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          78  91  78  91  77  /  10  20  20  20  10
COTULLA           75  98  76  98  75  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  97  74  95  75  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  91  78  91  78  /  10  20  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBRO 020556 AAD
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1256 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW MARINE BASED LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST WILL MOVE ASHORE ON LGT SOUTHEAST WINDS. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE... A SEA BREEZE...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING DAY AVIATION WISE.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION FOR THE LOWER
VALLEY BEGINNING LATE MORNING...THOUGH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE FARTHER INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN ANCHOR END
OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT OF TWO PLUS
INCHES AND SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO ONCE ENOUGH HEATING
DEVELOPS THROUGH WHAT COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT. POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WILL INCLUDE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 35 OR 40 MPH...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT ALMOST TO A T BASED
ON PRIOR UPDATE. CELL MERGER INDEED CRANKED UP THE RAIN/LIGHTNING
MACHINE ALONG THE NORTHWEST ZAPATA COUNTY LINE...WITH OTHER
ACTIVITY FIRING TO THE SOUTH IN JIM HOGG AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83
THROUGH MOST OF ZAPATA COUNTY BETWEEN 825 AND 10 PM. AS OF 1045
PM...BIG ACTION HAD SHIFTED INTO MEXICO FROM ZAPATA...AND THE JIM
HOGG COUNTY ACTIVITY WAS WINDING DOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE ONLY EFFECTS FOR PARTS OF THE RGV ARE THICKER MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND EVEN THEY ARE MOST PREVALENT FOR THE MID
VALLEY JUST NORTH OF THE BIGGER POPULATION CENTERS. KBRO 00Z
SOUNDING AND KCRP SOUNDINGS HELPED TELL THE TALE...THE STABLE AND
DRIER LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 650 MB MAY HAVE HELPED PUT UP THE STOP
SIGN FOR SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION...AS DID TIME OF
DAY AND GENERAL NE TO SW STORM MOTION.

FOR THE FINAL EVENING UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER AND WORDED FOR
DEBRIS SHOWERS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM OR SO ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST RANCHLANDS...WITH A BUFFER OF ISOLATED WORDING STILL
INTO STARR...BROOKS...AND NORTHERN HIDALGO. ALL THIS SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY 3 AM OR SO...LAST TO END THE RANCHLANDS. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LEFT ALONE...THOUGH RESHAPED RAIN CHANCE AREAS TO
BLEND BETTER WITH SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...SEE AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR SOME OF THE REASONS.

GRIDDED UPDATES AVAILABLE ON THE WEB...ZONE UPDATES TO FOLLOW.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON SOLID BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EASING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE JIM HOGG/ZAPATA RANCHLANDS DID A QUICK UPDATE
TO PUSH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES (FOR OBVIOUS REASONS) AND MENTION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF A HARD UPDATE...BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
OUR SATELLITE DATA SERVICE WHO IS MONITORING POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AND SUGGESTED 2-3" IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW AVERAGED TO NEAR 1" AND
WILL COVER POTENTIAL FLOODING WITH SHORT FUSED ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS THROUGH 10 PM.

AFTER 11 PM...SETTLED THINGS BACK TO 20/30 PERCENT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL RAIN...CUTTING OFF IN NORTHERN/WESTERN HIDALGO AND STARR
JUST TO BE SAFE.

WITH STORM MOTION TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST...ANY SOUTH MOVING
BOUNDARIES HEADED INTO MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER/MID
VALLEY...AND ARRIVAL OF SUNSET AND LOWER TEMPERATURES...HAVE LEFT
THE RGV OUT OF THE FUN THOUGH DID LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO
NORTHWEST CAMERON/WESTERN WILLACY JUST TO BE SAFE IF ANY DEBRIS
LIGHT RAIN CAN MAKE IT.

UPDATED FORECAST IS ON THE WEB AND IN TRADITIONAL ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD SO WILL COVER IN SECTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG CONCERN IS THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM
BAND THAT IS EASING THROUGH AND INTO MOISTURE/CAPE/ETC. RICH
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY...AND LIKE TO HOLD
TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE RANCHLANDS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS. THEREAFTER...QUICK
MESOANALYSIS HAS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RICHER ENVIRONMENT
OF THE RANCHLANDS AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE RGV. HAVING
SEEN A NUMBER OF NORTHERLY MEAN STORM MOTION EVENTS
OVERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BOTTOM LINE? I CAN`T RULE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR KHRL AND KMFE. EVEN KBRO COULD GET INTO THE
ACTION...BUT LATER TIMING AND PROXIMITY TO MOST STABLE ENVIRONMENT
SAYS HOLD OFF...FOR NOW.

OBVIOUSLY...SHOULD THE ACTION KEEP CRANKING WELL INTO THE
RANCHLANDS BEFORE SUNSET...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ACTIVITY AT
KHRL/KMFE GOES UP AND WILL AMEND FOR ALL PARAMETERS AS NECESSARY.

AFTER THE STORMS OR WHATEVER`S LEFT FADES OUT...EXPECT RESIDUAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT FOR MVFR CEILINGS THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED...WHICH IS A TEMPO GROUP AROUND/JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

FOR SATURDAY...RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT
EVEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO ACTIVATE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM TOWARD THE
COAST...AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR KBRO...UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL ENOUGH TO HOLD MENTION TO VCTS...WITH THUNDER HEARD AND
CUMULONIMBI AROUND BUT NOT NECESSARILY A DIRECT STRIKE. NOT SO FOR
KHRL WHICH TRADITIONALLY TAKES A HIT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE SITUATION. KMFE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT SHOT BUT
A BIT LATER...FOR NOW BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. PROB30 GROUPS COVER FOR
NOW.

OTHERWISE...LOW END VFR SCATTERED...PERHAPS BROKEN IN A FEW
SPOTS...AND LIGHT WINDS COVER IT ON SATURDAY.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE
NIGHT. AS OF 19Z...CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EARLIER TODAY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SHIFTING WINDS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING A
PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST LIMITING ANY SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE
SUN... CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL WEAKENING
AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND WITH
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LEFT THE INHERITED 30
PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD PLAY INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. RAIN FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM
MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON
SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PATTERN ACROSS THE US
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BLOCKING
PATTERN FINALLY RELEASES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT NO
COMPLETELY SHUTTING IT DOWN. THE NEXT AGITATOR FOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE THE MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PULL ITS INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WWD LATE IN THE WEEK PULLING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FURTHER INLAND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING GREAT
BOATING WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020556 AAD
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1256 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW MARINE BASED LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST WILL MOVE ASHORE ON LGT SOUTHEAST WINDS. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE... A SEA BREEZE...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING DAY AVIATION WISE.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION FOR THE LOWER
VALLEY BEGINNING LATE MORNING...THOUGH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE FARTHER INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN ANCHOR END
OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT OF TWO PLUS
INCHES AND SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO ONCE ENOUGH HEATING
DEVELOPS THROUGH WHAT COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT. POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WILL INCLUDE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 35 OR 40 MPH...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT ALMOST TO A T BASED
ON PRIOR UPDATE. CELL MERGER INDEED CRANKED UP THE RAIN/LIGHTNING
MACHINE ALONG THE NORTHWEST ZAPATA COUNTY LINE...WITH OTHER
ACTIVITY FIRING TO THE SOUTH IN JIM HOGG AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83
THROUGH MOST OF ZAPATA COUNTY BETWEEN 825 AND 10 PM. AS OF 1045
PM...BIG ACTION HAD SHIFTED INTO MEXICO FROM ZAPATA...AND THE JIM
HOGG COUNTY ACTIVITY WAS WINDING DOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE ONLY EFFECTS FOR PARTS OF THE RGV ARE THICKER MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND EVEN THEY ARE MOST PREVALENT FOR THE MID
VALLEY JUST NORTH OF THE BIGGER POPULATION CENTERS. KBRO 00Z
SOUNDING AND KCRP SOUNDINGS HELPED TELL THE TALE...THE STABLE AND
DRIER LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 650 MB MAY HAVE HELPED PUT UP THE STOP
SIGN FOR SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION...AS DID TIME OF
DAY AND GENERAL NE TO SW STORM MOTION.

FOR THE FINAL EVENING UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER AND WORDED FOR
DEBRIS SHOWERS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM OR SO ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST RANCHLANDS...WITH A BUFFER OF ISOLATED WORDING STILL
INTO STARR...BROOKS...AND NORTHERN HIDALGO. ALL THIS SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY 3 AM OR SO...LAST TO END THE RANCHLANDS. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LEFT ALONE...THOUGH RESHAPED RAIN CHANCE AREAS TO
BLEND BETTER WITH SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...SEE AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR SOME OF THE REASONS.

GRIDDED UPDATES AVAILABLE ON THE WEB...ZONE UPDATES TO FOLLOW.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON SOLID BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EASING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE JIM HOGG/ZAPATA RANCHLANDS DID A QUICK UPDATE
TO PUSH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES (FOR OBVIOUS REASONS) AND MENTION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF A HARD UPDATE...BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
OUR SATELLITE DATA SERVICE WHO IS MONITORING POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AND SUGGESTED 2-3" IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW AVERAGED TO NEAR 1" AND
WILL COVER POTENTIAL FLOODING WITH SHORT FUSED ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS THROUGH 10 PM.

AFTER 11 PM...SETTLED THINGS BACK TO 20/30 PERCENT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL RAIN...CUTTING OFF IN NORTHERN/WESTERN HIDALGO AND STARR
JUST TO BE SAFE.

WITH STORM MOTION TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST...ANY SOUTH MOVING
BOUNDARIES HEADED INTO MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER/MID
VALLEY...AND ARRIVAL OF SUNSET AND LOWER TEMPERATURES...HAVE LEFT
THE RGV OUT OF THE FUN THOUGH DID LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO
NORTHWEST CAMERON/WESTERN WILLACY JUST TO BE SAFE IF ANY DEBRIS
LIGHT RAIN CAN MAKE IT.

UPDATED FORECAST IS ON THE WEB AND IN TRADITIONAL ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD SO WILL COVER IN SECTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG CONCERN IS THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM
BAND THAT IS EASING THROUGH AND INTO MOISTURE/CAPE/ETC. RICH
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY...AND LIKE TO HOLD
TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE RANCHLANDS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS. THEREAFTER...QUICK
MESOANALYSIS HAS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RICHER ENVIRONMENT
OF THE RANCHLANDS AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE RGV. HAVING
SEEN A NUMBER OF NORTHERLY MEAN STORM MOTION EVENTS
OVERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BOTTOM LINE? I CAN`T RULE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR KHRL AND KMFE. EVEN KBRO COULD GET INTO THE
ACTION...BUT LATER TIMING AND PROXIMITY TO MOST STABLE ENVIRONMENT
SAYS HOLD OFF...FOR NOW.

OBVIOUSLY...SHOULD THE ACTION KEEP CRANKING WELL INTO THE
RANCHLANDS BEFORE SUNSET...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ACTIVITY AT
KHRL/KMFE GOES UP AND WILL AMEND FOR ALL PARAMETERS AS NECESSARY.

AFTER THE STORMS OR WHATEVER`S LEFT FADES OUT...EXPECT RESIDUAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT FOR MVFR CEILINGS THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED...WHICH IS A TEMPO GROUP AROUND/JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

FOR SATURDAY...RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT
EVEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO ACTIVATE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM TOWARD THE
COAST...AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR KBRO...UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL ENOUGH TO HOLD MENTION TO VCTS...WITH THUNDER HEARD AND
CUMULONIMBI AROUND BUT NOT NECESSARILY A DIRECT STRIKE. NOT SO FOR
KHRL WHICH TRADITIONALLY TAKES A HIT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE SITUATION. KMFE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT SHOT BUT
A BIT LATER...FOR NOW BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. PROB30 GROUPS COVER FOR
NOW.

OTHERWISE...LOW END VFR SCATTERED...PERHAPS BROKEN IN A FEW
SPOTS...AND LIGHT WINDS COVER IT ON SATURDAY.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE
NIGHT. AS OF 19Z...CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EARLIER TODAY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SHIFTING WINDS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING A
PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST LIMITING ANY SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE
SUN... CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL WEAKENING
AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND WITH
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LEFT THE INHERITED 30
PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD PLAY INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. RAIN FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM
MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON
SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PATTERN ACROSS THE US
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BLOCKING
PATTERN FINALLY RELEASES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT NO
COMPLETELY SHUTTING IT DOWN. THE NEXT AGITATOR FOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE THE MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PULL ITS INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WWD LATE IN THE WEEK PULLING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FURTHER INLAND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING GREAT
BOATING WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020556 AAD
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1256 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW MARINE BASED LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST WILL MOVE ASHORE ON LGT SOUTHEAST WINDS. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE... A SEA BREEZE...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING DAY AVIATION WISE.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION FOR THE LOWER
VALLEY BEGINNING LATE MORNING...THOUGH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE FARTHER INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN ANCHOR END
OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT OF TWO PLUS
INCHES AND SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO ONCE ENOUGH HEATING
DEVELOPS THROUGH WHAT COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT. POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WILL INCLUDE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 35 OR 40 MPH...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT ALMOST TO A T BASED
ON PRIOR UPDATE. CELL MERGER INDEED CRANKED UP THE RAIN/LIGHTNING
MACHINE ALONG THE NORTHWEST ZAPATA COUNTY LINE...WITH OTHER
ACTIVITY FIRING TO THE SOUTH IN JIM HOGG AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83
THROUGH MOST OF ZAPATA COUNTY BETWEEN 825 AND 10 PM. AS OF 1045
PM...BIG ACTION HAD SHIFTED INTO MEXICO FROM ZAPATA...AND THE JIM
HOGG COUNTY ACTIVITY WAS WINDING DOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE ONLY EFFECTS FOR PARTS OF THE RGV ARE THICKER MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND EVEN THEY ARE MOST PREVALENT FOR THE MID
VALLEY JUST NORTH OF THE BIGGER POPULATION CENTERS. KBRO 00Z
SOUNDING AND KCRP SOUNDINGS HELPED TELL THE TALE...THE STABLE AND
DRIER LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 650 MB MAY HAVE HELPED PUT UP THE STOP
SIGN FOR SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION...AS DID TIME OF
DAY AND GENERAL NE TO SW STORM MOTION.

FOR THE FINAL EVENING UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER AND WORDED FOR
DEBRIS SHOWERS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM OR SO ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST RANCHLANDS...WITH A BUFFER OF ISOLATED WORDING STILL
INTO STARR...BROOKS...AND NORTHERN HIDALGO. ALL THIS SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY 3 AM OR SO...LAST TO END THE RANCHLANDS. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LEFT ALONE...THOUGH RESHAPED RAIN CHANCE AREAS TO
BLEND BETTER WITH SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...SEE AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR SOME OF THE REASONS.

GRIDDED UPDATES AVAILABLE ON THE WEB...ZONE UPDATES TO FOLLOW.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON SOLID BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EASING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE JIM HOGG/ZAPATA RANCHLANDS DID A QUICK UPDATE
TO PUSH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES (FOR OBVIOUS REASONS) AND MENTION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF A HARD UPDATE...BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
OUR SATELLITE DATA SERVICE WHO IS MONITORING POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AND SUGGESTED 2-3" IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW AVERAGED TO NEAR 1" AND
WILL COVER POTENTIAL FLOODING WITH SHORT FUSED ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS THROUGH 10 PM.

AFTER 11 PM...SETTLED THINGS BACK TO 20/30 PERCENT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL RAIN...CUTTING OFF IN NORTHERN/WESTERN HIDALGO AND STARR
JUST TO BE SAFE.

WITH STORM MOTION TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST...ANY SOUTH MOVING
BOUNDARIES HEADED INTO MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER/MID
VALLEY...AND ARRIVAL OF SUNSET AND LOWER TEMPERATURES...HAVE LEFT
THE RGV OUT OF THE FUN THOUGH DID LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO
NORTHWEST CAMERON/WESTERN WILLACY JUST TO BE SAFE IF ANY DEBRIS
LIGHT RAIN CAN MAKE IT.

UPDATED FORECAST IS ON THE WEB AND IN TRADITIONAL ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD SO WILL COVER IN SECTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG CONCERN IS THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM
BAND THAT IS EASING THROUGH AND INTO MOISTURE/CAPE/ETC. RICH
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY...AND LIKE TO HOLD
TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE RANCHLANDS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS. THEREAFTER...QUICK
MESOANALYSIS HAS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RICHER ENVIRONMENT
OF THE RANCHLANDS AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE RGV. HAVING
SEEN A NUMBER OF NORTHERLY MEAN STORM MOTION EVENTS
OVERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BOTTOM LINE? I CAN`T RULE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR KHRL AND KMFE. EVEN KBRO COULD GET INTO THE
ACTION...BUT LATER TIMING AND PROXIMITY TO MOST STABLE ENVIRONMENT
SAYS HOLD OFF...FOR NOW.

OBVIOUSLY...SHOULD THE ACTION KEEP CRANKING WELL INTO THE
RANCHLANDS BEFORE SUNSET...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ACTIVITY AT
KHRL/KMFE GOES UP AND WILL AMEND FOR ALL PARAMETERS AS NECESSARY.

AFTER THE STORMS OR WHATEVER`S LEFT FADES OUT...EXPECT RESIDUAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT FOR MVFR CEILINGS THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED...WHICH IS A TEMPO GROUP AROUND/JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

FOR SATURDAY...RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT
EVEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO ACTIVATE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM TOWARD THE
COAST...AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR KBRO...UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL ENOUGH TO HOLD MENTION TO VCTS...WITH THUNDER HEARD AND
CUMULONIMBI AROUND BUT NOT NECESSARILY A DIRECT STRIKE. NOT SO FOR
KHRL WHICH TRADITIONALLY TAKES A HIT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE SITUATION. KMFE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT SHOT BUT
A BIT LATER...FOR NOW BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. PROB30 GROUPS COVER FOR
NOW.

OTHERWISE...LOW END VFR SCATTERED...PERHAPS BROKEN IN A FEW
SPOTS...AND LIGHT WINDS COVER IT ON SATURDAY.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE
NIGHT. AS OF 19Z...CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EARLIER TODAY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SHIFTING WINDS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING A
PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST LIMITING ANY SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE
SUN... CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL WEAKENING
AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND WITH
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LEFT THE INHERITED 30
PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD PLAY INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. RAIN FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM
MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON
SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PATTERN ACROSS THE US
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BLOCKING
PATTERN FINALLY RELEASES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT NO
COMPLETELY SHUTTING IT DOWN. THE NEXT AGITATOR FOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE THE MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PULL ITS INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WWD LATE IN THE WEEK PULLING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FURTHER INLAND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING GREAT
BOATING WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020556 AAD
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1256 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH A FEW MARINE BASED LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE
COAST WILL MOVE ASHORE ON LGT SOUTHEAST WINDS. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE... A SEA BREEZE...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING DAY AVIATION WISE.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION FOR THE LOWER
VALLEY BEGINNING LATE MORNING...THOUGH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE FARTHER INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN ANCHOR END
OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS A PWAT OF TWO PLUS
INCHES AND SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO ONCE ENOUGH HEATING
DEVELOPS THROUGH WHAT COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THE ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT. POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WILL INCLUDE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 35 OR 40 MPH...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT ALMOST TO A T BASED
ON PRIOR UPDATE. CELL MERGER INDEED CRANKED UP THE RAIN/LIGHTNING
MACHINE ALONG THE NORTHWEST ZAPATA COUNTY LINE...WITH OTHER
ACTIVITY FIRING TO THE SOUTH IN JIM HOGG AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83
THROUGH MOST OF ZAPATA COUNTY BETWEEN 825 AND 10 PM. AS OF 1045
PM...BIG ACTION HAD SHIFTED INTO MEXICO FROM ZAPATA...AND THE JIM
HOGG COUNTY ACTIVITY WAS WINDING DOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE ONLY EFFECTS FOR PARTS OF THE RGV ARE THICKER MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND EVEN THEY ARE MOST PREVALENT FOR THE MID
VALLEY JUST NORTH OF THE BIGGER POPULATION CENTERS. KBRO 00Z
SOUNDING AND KCRP SOUNDINGS HELPED TELL THE TALE...THE STABLE AND
DRIER LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 650 MB MAY HAVE HELPED PUT UP THE STOP
SIGN FOR SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION...AS DID TIME OF
DAY AND GENERAL NE TO SW STORM MOTION.

FOR THE FINAL EVENING UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER AND WORDED FOR
DEBRIS SHOWERS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM OR SO ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST RANCHLANDS...WITH A BUFFER OF ISOLATED WORDING STILL
INTO STARR...BROOKS...AND NORTHERN HIDALGO. ALL THIS SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY 3 AM OR SO...LAST TO END THE RANCHLANDS. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LEFT ALONE...THOUGH RESHAPED RAIN CHANCE AREAS TO
BLEND BETTER WITH SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...SEE AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR SOME OF THE REASONS.

GRIDDED UPDATES AVAILABLE ON THE WEB...ZONE UPDATES TO FOLLOW.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON SOLID BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EASING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE JIM HOGG/ZAPATA RANCHLANDS DID A QUICK UPDATE
TO PUSH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES (FOR OBVIOUS REASONS) AND MENTION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF A HARD UPDATE...BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
OUR SATELLITE DATA SERVICE WHO IS MONITORING POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AND SUGGESTED 2-3" IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW AVERAGED TO NEAR 1" AND
WILL COVER POTENTIAL FLOODING WITH SHORT FUSED ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS THROUGH 10 PM.

AFTER 11 PM...SETTLED THINGS BACK TO 20/30 PERCENT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL RAIN...CUTTING OFF IN NORTHERN/WESTERN HIDALGO AND STARR
JUST TO BE SAFE.

WITH STORM MOTION TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST...ANY SOUTH MOVING
BOUNDARIES HEADED INTO MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER/MID
VALLEY...AND ARRIVAL OF SUNSET AND LOWER TEMPERATURES...HAVE LEFT
THE RGV OUT OF THE FUN THOUGH DID LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO
NORTHWEST CAMERON/WESTERN WILLACY JUST TO BE SAFE IF ANY DEBRIS
LIGHT RAIN CAN MAKE IT.

UPDATED FORECAST IS ON THE WEB AND IN TRADITIONAL ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD SO WILL COVER IN SECTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG CONCERN IS THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM
BAND THAT IS EASING THROUGH AND INTO MOISTURE/CAPE/ETC. RICH
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY...AND LIKE TO HOLD
TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE RANCHLANDS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS. THEREAFTER...QUICK
MESOANALYSIS HAS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RICHER ENVIRONMENT
OF THE RANCHLANDS AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE RGV. HAVING
SEEN A NUMBER OF NORTHERLY MEAN STORM MOTION EVENTS
OVERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BOTTOM LINE? I CAN`T RULE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR KHRL AND KMFE. EVEN KBRO COULD GET INTO THE
ACTION...BUT LATER TIMING AND PROXIMITY TO MOST STABLE ENVIRONMENT
SAYS HOLD OFF...FOR NOW.

OBVIOUSLY...SHOULD THE ACTION KEEP CRANKING WELL INTO THE
RANCHLANDS BEFORE SUNSET...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ACTIVITY AT
KHRL/KMFE GOES UP AND WILL AMEND FOR ALL PARAMETERS AS NECESSARY.

AFTER THE STORMS OR WHATEVER`S LEFT FADES OUT...EXPECT RESIDUAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT FOR MVFR CEILINGS THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED...WHICH IS A TEMPO GROUP AROUND/JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

FOR SATURDAY...RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT
EVEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO ACTIVATE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM TOWARD THE
COAST...AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR KBRO...UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL ENOUGH TO HOLD MENTION TO VCTS...WITH THUNDER HEARD AND
CUMULONIMBI AROUND BUT NOT NECESSARILY A DIRECT STRIKE. NOT SO FOR
KHRL WHICH TRADITIONALLY TAKES A HIT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE SITUATION. KMFE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT SHOT BUT
A BIT LATER...FOR NOW BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. PROB30 GROUPS COVER FOR
NOW.

OTHERWISE...LOW END VFR SCATTERED...PERHAPS BROKEN IN A FEW
SPOTS...AND LIGHT WINDS COVER IT ON SATURDAY.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE
NIGHT. AS OF 19Z...CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EARLIER TODAY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SHIFTING WINDS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING A
PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST LIMITING ANY SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE
SUN... CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL WEAKENING
AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND WITH
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LEFT THE INHERITED 30
PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD PLAY INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. RAIN FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM
MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON
SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PATTERN ACROSS THE US
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BLOCKING
PATTERN FINALLY RELEASES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT NO
COMPLETELY SHUTTING IT DOWN. THE NEXT AGITATOR FOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE THE MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PULL ITS INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WWD LATE IN THE WEEK PULLING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FURTHER INLAND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING GREAT
BOATING WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMAF 020515
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1215 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Convection has mostly dissipated within the flash flood watch area
across the Trans Pecos. Mesoscale models including RUC13/NAM12/TTU
WRF suggest that there will be little development thru 06Z.
Thereafter these mesoscale models redevelop convection across
Presidio and Culberson Counties. Looking closely at water vapor
there is a shrtwv trof that will be moving NW into and thru
Chihuahua, MX thus providing a source for forcing overnight. Sufficient
mstr is place with PWs of 1-2 standard deviations above normal and
steering flow is 10kts or less. As such we will give the watch the
overnight hours to "pan out". May make some minor adjustments to
PoPs before local 10 PM news, but the integrity of the fcst will
remain as is for the most part.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have light easterly winds at
all terminals this evening with some light showers south of CNM
and in/near the Davis Mountains. Could see an increase in
SHRA/TSRA coverage tonight but best chances will be confined to
the far west, possibly affecting CNM, PEQ and FST at some point.
Not expecting any vis restrictions at this time therefore will not
include mention of SHRA in the TAF. However, will need to amend
if TSRA develops. Otherwise, light easterly winds will continue
through Saturday with best TSRA chances remaining to the west of
most terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An elongated and fractured upper ridge extending from SoCal to the
Mexican states of Chihuahua/Coahuila is aiding monsoonal moisture in
staying over Arizona and New Mexico, and over the western half or so
of the forecast area this afternoon.  A shortwave trough translating
slowly east/southeastward between the ua ridge and an ua trough over
the eastern ConUS is the reason for the fracture, and also playing a
hand in fairly widespread convection we`ve seen last night and so
far today.  There also appears to be at least two Mesoscale
Convective Vortices (MCVs), from earlier convection, spinning near
the Guadalupe Mountains, and the other near El Paso.  A surface
ridge over eastern portions of the forecast area is fostering a more
stable atmosphere, although showers have been able to move into the
central Permian Basin early this afternoon.

Cloud cover over the higher terrain of West Texas is beginning to
thin this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms from earlier are
moving into the PB and west central Texas.  This will allow the
atmosphere to destabilize before nightfall, and along with
persistent upslope flow and close proximity to the mentioned ua
features, result in additional shower and thunderstorm development.
Will continue to carry the highest PoPs over these areas tonight and
Saturday.  Precipitable Water is fairly high over the western third
of the forecast area, around 1.5 inches, while the soil is wet, and
flash flood guidance low.  The steering flow around/under the ua
ridge is weak so slow moving thunderstorms, some strong, could drop
1-2 inches of rain per hour.  Considering all this, will issue a
Flash Flood Watch (FFA) for locations along and west of a Guadalupe
Mountains, to Alpine to Presidio line tonight and Saturday.  Also
have concerns about Eddy County in southeast New Mexico where
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches have occurred in the last couple
of days.  It doesn`t appear the atmosphere will destabilize there
quite as much through the rest of the day, so have not included them
in the FFA.  Subsequent shifts will have to monitor and adjust
accordingly.  There could also be additional rises along the Rio
Grande River tonight and Saturday due to runoff from heavy rainfall
over the forecast area, in addition to the potential for heavy rain
over eastern Chihuahua and more water flowing into the Rio Grande
from the Rio Conchos.

Saturday night and thereafter, the eastern ConUS ua trough will
translate eastward, allowing the ua ridge to expand eastward back
over the region.  We should see a gradual decrease in monsoonal
moisture over the region as a result, more subsidence, lower rain
chances and temperatures warming back to normal levels as early as
Tuesday.  There still could be heavy rain concerns along the western
fringe of the forecast area Saturday night, if not Sunday.  Later
shifts will have to monitor the progress of the ua features to see
whether an extension of the FFA is needed.  Rain chances may be few
and far between from Sunday until Wednesday, but there are
indications another ua trough will flatten the ridge mid next week
and allow for more rain chances.  For now, will just keep a slight
chance of thunderstorms mainly over the western half of the forecast
area for mid to late next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe Mountains...Marfa
     Plateau...Presidio Valley...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

44






000
FXUS64 KMAF 020515
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1215 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Convection has mostly dissipated within the flash flood watch area
across the Trans Pecos. Mesoscale models including RUC13/NAM12/TTU
WRF suggest that there will be little development thru 06Z.
Thereafter these mesoscale models redevelop convection across
Presidio and Culberson Counties. Looking closely at water vapor
there is a shrtwv trof that will be moving NW into and thru
Chihuahua, MX thus providing a source for forcing overnight. Sufficient
mstr is place with PWs of 1-2 standard deviations above normal and
steering flow is 10kts or less. As such we will give the watch the
overnight hours to "pan out". May make some minor adjustments to
PoPs before local 10 PM news, but the integrity of the fcst will
remain as is for the most part.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have light easterly winds at
all terminals this evening with some light showers south of CNM
and in/near the Davis Mountains. Could see an increase in
SHRA/TSRA coverage tonight but best chances will be confined to
the far west, possibly affecting CNM, PEQ and FST at some point.
Not expecting any vis restrictions at this time therefore will not
include mention of SHRA in the TAF. However, will need to amend
if TSRA develops. Otherwise, light easterly winds will continue
through Saturday with best TSRA chances remaining to the west of
most terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An elongated and fractured upper ridge extending from SoCal to the
Mexican states of Chihuahua/Coahuila is aiding monsoonal moisture in
staying over Arizona and New Mexico, and over the western half or so
of the forecast area this afternoon.  A shortwave trough translating
slowly east/southeastward between the ua ridge and an ua trough over
the eastern ConUS is the reason for the fracture, and also playing a
hand in fairly widespread convection we`ve seen last night and so
far today.  There also appears to be at least two Mesoscale
Convective Vortices (MCVs), from earlier convection, spinning near
the Guadalupe Mountains, and the other near El Paso.  A surface
ridge over eastern portions of the forecast area is fostering a more
stable atmosphere, although showers have been able to move into the
central Permian Basin early this afternoon.

Cloud cover over the higher terrain of West Texas is beginning to
thin this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms from earlier are
moving into the PB and west central Texas.  This will allow the
atmosphere to destabilize before nightfall, and along with
persistent upslope flow and close proximity to the mentioned ua
features, result in additional shower and thunderstorm development.
Will continue to carry the highest PoPs over these areas tonight and
Saturday.  Precipitable Water is fairly high over the western third
of the forecast area, around 1.5 inches, while the soil is wet, and
flash flood guidance low.  The steering flow around/under the ua
ridge is weak so slow moving thunderstorms, some strong, could drop
1-2 inches of rain per hour.  Considering all this, will issue a
Flash Flood Watch (FFA) for locations along and west of a Guadalupe
Mountains, to Alpine to Presidio line tonight and Saturday.  Also
have concerns about Eddy County in southeast New Mexico where
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches have occurred in the last couple
of days.  It doesn`t appear the atmosphere will destabilize there
quite as much through the rest of the day, so have not included them
in the FFA.  Subsequent shifts will have to monitor and adjust
accordingly.  There could also be additional rises along the Rio
Grande River tonight and Saturday due to runoff from heavy rainfall
over the forecast area, in addition to the potential for heavy rain
over eastern Chihuahua and more water flowing into the Rio Grande
from the Rio Conchos.

Saturday night and thereafter, the eastern ConUS ua trough will
translate eastward, allowing the ua ridge to expand eastward back
over the region.  We should see a gradual decrease in monsoonal
moisture over the region as a result, more subsidence, lower rain
chances and temperatures warming back to normal levels as early as
Tuesday.  There still could be heavy rain concerns along the western
fringe of the forecast area Saturday night, if not Sunday.  Later
shifts will have to monitor the progress of the ua features to see
whether an extension of the FFA is needed.  Rain chances may be few
and far between from Sunday until Wednesday, but there are
indications another ua trough will flatten the ridge mid next week
and allow for more rain chances.  For now, will just keep a slight
chance of thunderstorms mainly over the western half of the forecast
area for mid to late next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe Mountains...Marfa
     Plateau...Presidio Valley...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

44




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 020458
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1158 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION/
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WESTWARD FROM EAST TX OVERNIGHT
AND LIKELY REACH THE AUSTIN AREA BY DAYBREAK. SAT/SSF ARE NOT AS
CERTAIN TO SEE THE LOW CIGS. PERSISTENT INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND POSSIBLY IMPACT DRT AT ANY POINT IN TIME
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. MORE LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 24-30 HOUR
FORECAST FOR AUS/SAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE EWX CWA...SHIFTING WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO REMAINING INSTABILITY AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. A FEW MODELS INDICATING
RE-DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING NEAR THE CRP/EWX
CWA BORDER ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS UP THROUGH THW EDWARD
PLATAEA...CURRENTLY HANDLED WITH THE LOW POPS. NO MAJOR CHANGES
REQUIRED TO ONGOING FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
SCATTERED AREAS OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL HOLD VFR SKIES IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR FOR THE TAF SITES. AFTER A FEW
HOURS OF MORNING MVFR CIGS ALONG I-35 VFR SKIES SHOULD HOLD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIODS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND GULF COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND PRODUCE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SATURDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN HALF OF CONUS
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. AT THE
SURFACE...REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL LINGER AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND FLATTENING
THINGS OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE
FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  93  72  92  73 /  -   10  -   10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  92  69  92  70 /  -   10  -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  94  70  94  71 /  -   10  -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  70  90  71 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  92  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  91  71  91  71 /  -   -   -   10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  94  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  93  70  92  71 /  -   10  -   10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  91  72  93  73 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  94  73  94  73 /  10  10  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






000
FXUS64 KEWX 020458
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1158 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION/
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WESTWARD FROM EAST TX OVERNIGHT
AND LIKELY REACH THE AUSTIN AREA BY DAYBREAK. SAT/SSF ARE NOT AS
CERTAIN TO SEE THE LOW CIGS. PERSISTENT INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND POSSIBLY IMPACT DRT AT ANY POINT IN TIME
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. MORE LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 24-30 HOUR
FORECAST FOR AUS/SAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE EWX CWA...SHIFTING WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO REMAINING INSTABILITY AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. A FEW MODELS INDICATING
RE-DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING NEAR THE CRP/EWX
CWA BORDER ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS UP THROUGH THW EDWARD
PLATAEA...CURRENTLY HANDLED WITH THE LOW POPS. NO MAJOR CHANGES
REQUIRED TO ONGOING FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
SCATTERED AREAS OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL HOLD VFR SKIES IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR FOR THE TAF SITES. AFTER A FEW
HOURS OF MORNING MVFR CIGS ALONG I-35 VFR SKIES SHOULD HOLD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIODS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND GULF COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND PRODUCE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SATURDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN HALF OF CONUS
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. AT THE
SURFACE...REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL LINGER AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND FLATTENING
THINGS OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE
FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  93  72  92  73 /  -   10  -   10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  92  69  92  70 /  -   10  -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  94  70  94  71 /  -   10  -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  70  90  71 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  92  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  91  71  91  71 /  -   -   -   10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  94  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  93  70  92  71 /  -   10  -   10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  91  72  93  73 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  94  73  94  73 /  10  10  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KAMA 020450
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1150 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
DIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE CHANGING FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST MODELS NOW HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. TIMING AND LOCATION OF QPF DIFFERS
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS FOR UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BRING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON AND OFF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL AFTER TUESDAY...AS
THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTION...AND BECAUSE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
GENERATES SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COME IN COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 020450
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1150 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
DIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE CHANGING FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST MODELS NOW HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. TIMING AND LOCATION OF QPF DIFFERS
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS FOR UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BRING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON AND OFF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL AFTER TUESDAY...AS
THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTION...AND BECAUSE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
GENERATES SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COME IN COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 020450
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1150 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
DIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE CHANGING FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST MODELS NOW HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. TIMING AND LOCATION OF QPF DIFFERS
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS FOR UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BRING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON AND OFF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL AFTER TUESDAY...AS
THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTION...AND BECAUSE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
GENERATES SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COME IN COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 020450
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1150 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
DIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE CHANGING FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST MODELS NOW HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. TIMING AND LOCATION OF QPF DIFFERS
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS FOR UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BRING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON AND OFF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL AFTER TUESDAY...AS
THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTION...AND BECAUSE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
GENERATES SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COME IN COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLUB 020447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS...WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE PATTERN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE SET TO TRACK BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL AIR HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX
INTO THE 40S OVER SELECT LOCATIONS WITH MORE LIKELY ON THE WAY BY
THE END OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK UNDERNEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK WITH LOW-MID 80S COMMON EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT WHERE MORE INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING. MOSTLY EVERYONE
SHOULD ULTIMATELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDERNEATH CONTINUED MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S AREAWIDE. ALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

UPPER FLOW WILL VEER AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ATTEMPT TO SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REMAIN WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT DESPITE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A
BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS UPPER RIDGE EDGES
EAST OVER WTX. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SHIFTING WESTWARD.
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER NM EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE
LINE. BY MIDWEEK..A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
WILL BEAT DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP...I.E. A SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH
BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND HOPEFULLY A DEEPER MOISTURE
FEED WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION STARTING ACROSS THE NW WED AND MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG BY
MIDWEEK BUT THE TREND SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  84  59  83  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  85  59  85  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  85  60  85  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  85  63  85  62 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  87  64  86  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  87  63  86  63 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    64  87  64  86  64 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     66  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  88  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     65  91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KLUB 020447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS...WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE PATTERN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE SET TO TRACK BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL AIR HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX
INTO THE 40S OVER SELECT LOCATIONS WITH MORE LIKELY ON THE WAY BY
THE END OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK UNDERNEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK WITH LOW-MID 80S COMMON EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT WHERE MORE INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING. MOSTLY EVERYONE
SHOULD ULTIMATELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDERNEATH CONTINUED MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S AREAWIDE. ALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

UPPER FLOW WILL VEER AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ATTEMPT TO SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REMAIN WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT DESPITE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A
BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS UPPER RIDGE EDGES
EAST OVER WTX. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SHIFTING WESTWARD.
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER NM EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE
LINE. BY MIDWEEK..A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
WILL BEAT DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP...I.E. A SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH
BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND HOPEFULLY A DEEPER MOISTURE
FEED WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION STARTING ACROSS THE NW WED AND MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG BY
MIDWEEK BUT THE TREND SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  84  59  83  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  85  59  85  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  85  60  85  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  85  63  85  62 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  87  64  86  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  87  63  86  63 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    64  87  64  86  64 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     66  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  88  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     65  91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KLUB 020447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS...WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE PATTERN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE SET TO TRACK BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL AIR HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX
INTO THE 40S OVER SELECT LOCATIONS WITH MORE LIKELY ON THE WAY BY
THE END OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK UNDERNEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK WITH LOW-MID 80S COMMON EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT WHERE MORE INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING. MOSTLY EVERYONE
SHOULD ULTIMATELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDERNEATH CONTINUED MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S AREAWIDE. ALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

UPPER FLOW WILL VEER AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ATTEMPT TO SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REMAIN WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT DESPITE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A
BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS UPPER RIDGE EDGES
EAST OVER WTX. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SHIFTING WESTWARD.
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER NM EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE
LINE. BY MIDWEEK..A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
WILL BEAT DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP...I.E. A SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH
BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND HOPEFULLY A DEEPER MOISTURE
FEED WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION STARTING ACROSS THE NW WED AND MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG BY
MIDWEEK BUT THE TREND SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  84  59  83  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  85  59  85  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  85  60  85  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  85  63  85  62 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  87  64  86  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  87  63  86  63 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    64  87  64  86  64 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     66  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  88  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     65  91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KLUB 020447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS...WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE PATTERN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE SET TO TRACK BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL AIR HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX
INTO THE 40S OVER SELECT LOCATIONS WITH MORE LIKELY ON THE WAY BY
THE END OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK UNDERNEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK WITH LOW-MID 80S COMMON EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT WHERE MORE INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING. MOSTLY EVERYONE
SHOULD ULTIMATELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDERNEATH CONTINUED MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S AREAWIDE. ALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

UPPER FLOW WILL VEER AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ATTEMPT TO SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REMAIN WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT DESPITE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A
BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS UPPER RIDGE EDGES
EAST OVER WTX. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SHIFTING WESTWARD.
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER NM EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE
LINE. BY MIDWEEK..A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
WILL BEAT DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP...I.E. A SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH
BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND HOPEFULLY A DEEPER MOISTURE
FEED WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION STARTING ACROSS THE NW WED AND MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG BY
MIDWEEK BUT THE TREND SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  84  59  83  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  85  59  85  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  85  60  85  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  85  63  85  62 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  87  64  86  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  87  63  86  63 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    64  87  64  86  64 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     66  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  88  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     65  91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 020447
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1145 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

A veil of mid and high clouds continues across West Central Texas
terminals late this evening, but VFR conditions should persist.
Light east and northeast winds will continue as well.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions to persist over the next 24 hours. Some
mid-level scattered to broken ceilings will be possible through
sunrise, but should clear out during the morning. Winds look to
remain relatively light.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Weak northwest flow aloft will continue across the Southern Plains
into Saturday with high pressure aloft centered south and west of
the area. The cold front that moved through the area yesterday will
remain stationary across deep south Texas and northern Mexico
through Saturday. We`ll see light east to northeast winds continue
across the area the next 24 hours, resulting in a continuation of
below normal temperatures. Low temperatures tonight will generally
be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Saturday around 90
degrees areawide.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
north of the stalled front tonight and early Saturday. Most of this
activity will remain south and west of the area but a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms may creep into Crockett county after
midnight into Saturday morning. Will keep slight POPs going across
this into Saturday.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

A steady warm up is forecast through next week. An upper level ridge
will expand and dominate the weather for West Central Texas from
Sunday through much of next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, while overnight lows drop into the mid
to upper 60s. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast from the
middle to latter part of the work week, with highs back into the mid
to upper 90s, with overnight lows in the lower 70s. The influence of
the upper level ridge should keep rain chances near zero. Models are
less aggressive in a possible cold front moving into West Central
Texas late next week. The upper level trough across the Northern
Plains is forecast to be weaker than originally anticipated, keeping
the cold front to the north of the area. For now, PoPs were left out
of the forecast on days 6 and 7, as the upper level ridge continues
to dominate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  90  67  90  68 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  66  92  65  93  68 /  10  10   5   5   5
Junction  68  92  66  93  68 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KSJT 020447
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1145 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

A veil of mid and high clouds continues across West Central Texas
terminals late this evening, but VFR conditions should persist.
Light east and northeast winds will continue as well.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions to persist over the next 24 hours. Some
mid-level scattered to broken ceilings will be possible through
sunrise, but should clear out during the morning. Winds look to
remain relatively light.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Weak northwest flow aloft will continue across the Southern Plains
into Saturday with high pressure aloft centered south and west of
the area. The cold front that moved through the area yesterday will
remain stationary across deep south Texas and northern Mexico
through Saturday. We`ll see light east to northeast winds continue
across the area the next 24 hours, resulting in a continuation of
below normal temperatures. Low temperatures tonight will generally
be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Saturday around 90
degrees areawide.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
north of the stalled front tonight and early Saturday. Most of this
activity will remain south and west of the area but a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms may creep into Crockett county after
midnight into Saturday morning. Will keep slight POPs going across
this into Saturday.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

A steady warm up is forecast through next week. An upper level ridge
will expand and dominate the weather for West Central Texas from
Sunday through much of next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, while overnight lows drop into the mid
to upper 60s. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast from the
middle to latter part of the work week, with highs back into the mid
to upper 90s, with overnight lows in the lower 70s. The influence of
the upper level ridge should keep rain chances near zero. Models are
less aggressive in a possible cold front moving into West Central
Texas late next week. The upper level trough across the Northern
Plains is forecast to be weaker than originally anticipated, keeping
the cold front to the north of the area. For now, PoPs were left out
of the forecast on days 6 and 7, as the upper level ridge continues
to dominate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  90  67  90  68 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  66  92  65  93  68 /  10  10   5   5   5
Junction  68  92  66  93  68 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 020444
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1144 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

CF IS NOW SOUTH OF ALL THE TAF SITES AND EXTENDS FROM MATAGORDA
BAY TO 30 NM SOUTH OF GLS. EXPECT 5-10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CEILING HEIGHTS
LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY NEAR A CXO
TO UTS LINE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH S/SW. A FAIRLY RAGGED EDGE
TO THE CLOUD COVER EXISTS WITH SOME VARIABILITY IN CEILING HEIGHT
AS WELL. GENERALLY EXPECT CEILINGS TO VARY BETWEEN 2-3KFT TONIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW AT INLAND SITES. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW PUSHED PAST GALVESTON AND IS MAKING ITS
WAY OFF THE COAST. NORTH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINT AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS
A COOLER NIGHT THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ALSO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THANKS TO LOWER 850
TEMPERATURES. IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS 850 TEMPS AROUND 16C ARE
FORECASTED WITH 850 TEMPERATURES NEAR 18C TOWARDS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOWER 90S IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMP GRIDS TO MATCH ABOVE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK LOW TOMORROW AS MUCH DRIER PWAT AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA. YESTERDAY OBSERVED VALUES WERE AROUND 2.2" WITH VALUES
TOMORROW FORECASTED TO FALL NEAR 1.50". GPS MET SITE ALREADY
SHOWING HOUSTON PWAT VALUE DOWN TO 1.6" AT THIS HOUR. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  89  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  89  73  92  74 /  10  10  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  91  79  89  78 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...33



000
FXUS64 KHGX 020444
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1144 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

CF IS NOW SOUTH OF ALL THE TAF SITES AND EXTENDS FROM MATAGORDA
BAY TO 30 NM SOUTH OF GLS. EXPECT 5-10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CEILING HEIGHTS
LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY NEAR A CXO
TO UTS LINE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH S/SW. A FAIRLY RAGGED EDGE
TO THE CLOUD COVER EXISTS WITH SOME VARIABILITY IN CEILING HEIGHT
AS WELL. GENERALLY EXPECT CEILINGS TO VARY BETWEEN 2-3KFT TONIGHT
AND EARLY TOMORROW AT INLAND SITES. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW PUSHED PAST GALVESTON AND IS MAKING ITS
WAY OFF THE COAST. NORTH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINT AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS
A COOLER NIGHT THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ALSO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THANKS TO LOWER 850
TEMPERATURES. IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS 850 TEMPS AROUND 16C ARE
FORECASTED WITH 850 TEMPERATURES NEAR 18C TOWARDS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOWER 90S IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMP GRIDS TO MATCH ABOVE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK LOW TOMORROW AS MUCH DRIER PWAT AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA. YESTERDAY OBSERVED VALUES WERE AROUND 2.2" WITH VALUES
TOMORROW FORECASTED TO FALL NEAR 1.50". GPS MET SITE ALREADY
SHOWING HOUSTON PWAT VALUE DOWN TO 1.6" AT THIS HOUR. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  89  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  89  73  92  74 /  10  10  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  91  79  89  78 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...33



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 020422 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1122 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR WITH SCT-BKN030-040 CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NE WINDS AROUND
5 KTS. BY SUNRISE...WACO COULD SEE A BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS
UNDERNEATH SHALLOWER FRONTAL INVERSION BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

WINDS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY NORTH AROUND 10 KTS MUCH OF THE DAY AS
ANY CIGS RISE TO BETWEEN 050-060 KFT. BY SATURDAY EVENING...VFR
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH NE WINDS ONCE AGAIN 5-8 KTS.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST SKY COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FARTHER WEST...HAVE SHOWN
MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR EARLY
AUGUST IS IN STORE.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING DECEASING
CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONALLY HOT AND RAIN FREE WEATHER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SOME DEVIATIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS SOLUTIONS BREAKS THE
UPPER RIDGE DOWN AND MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
KEEP THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED HOT AND
RAIN-FREE WEATHER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  90  73  93  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              69  91  71  93  71 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             66  86  68  89  68 /   5  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            67  89  68  93  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  89  68  90  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            70  90  74  91  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  87  71  92  70 /   5  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  88  71  92  71 /  10  10   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  92  70  93  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  91  68  92  67 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/91





000
FXUS64 KFWD 020422 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1122 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR WITH SCT-BKN030-040 CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NE WINDS AROUND
5 KTS. BY SUNRISE...WACO COULD SEE A BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS
UNDERNEATH SHALLOWER FRONTAL INVERSION BETWEEN 12Z-15Z.

WINDS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY NORTH AROUND 10 KTS MUCH OF THE DAY AS
ANY CIGS RISE TO BETWEEN 050-060 KFT. BY SATURDAY EVENING...VFR
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH NE WINDS ONCE AGAIN 5-8 KTS.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST SKY COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FARTHER WEST...HAVE SHOWN
MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR EARLY
AUGUST IS IN STORE.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING DECEASING
CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONALLY HOT AND RAIN FREE WEATHER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SOME DEVIATIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS SOLUTIONS BREAKS THE
UPPER RIDGE DOWN AND MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
KEEP THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED HOT AND
RAIN-FREE WEATHER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  90  73  93  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              69  91  71  93  71 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             66  86  68  89  68 /   5  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            67  89  68  93  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  89  68  90  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            70  90  74  91  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  87  71  92  70 /   5  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  88  71  92  71 /  10  10   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  92  70  93  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  91  68  92  67 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/91






000
FXUS64 KBRO 020349 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1049 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT ALMOST TO A T BASED
ON PRIOR UPDATE. CELL MERGER INDEED CRANKED UP THE RAIN/LIGHTNING
MACHINE ALONG THE NORTHWEST ZAPATA COUNTY LINE...WITH OTHER
ACTIVITY FIRING TO THE SOUTH IN JIM HOGG AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83
THROUGH MOST OF ZAPATA COUNTY BETWEEN 825 AND 10 PM. AS OF 1045
PM...BIG ACTION HAD SHIFTED INTO MEXICO FROM ZAPATA...AND THE JIM
HOGG COUNTY ACTIVITY WAS WINDING DOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE ONLY EFFECTS FOR PARTS OF THE RGV ARE THICKER MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND EVEN THEY ARE MOST PREVALENT FOR THE MID
VALLEY JUST NORTH OF THE BIGGER POPULATION CENTERS. KBRO 00Z
SOUNDING AND KCRP SOUNDINGS HELPED TELL THE TALE...THE STABLE AND
DRIER LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 650 MB MAY HAVE HELPED PUT UP THE STOP
SIGN FOR SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION...AS DID TIME OF
DAY AND GENERAL NE TO SW STORM MOTION.

FOR THE FINAL EVENING UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER AND WORDED FOR
DEBRIS SHOWERS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM OR SO ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST RANCHLANDS...WITH A BUFFER OF ISOLATED WORDING STILL
INTO STARR...BROOKS...AND NORTHERN HIDALGO. ALL THIS SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY 3 AM OR SO...LAST TO END THE RANCHLANDS. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LEFT ALONE...THOUGH RESHAPED RAIN CHANCE AREAS TO
BLEND BETTER WITH SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...SEE AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR SOME OF THE REASONS.

GRIDDED UPDATES AVAILABLE ON THE WEB...ZONE UPDATES TO FOLLOW.
52/BSG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON SOLID BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EASING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE JIM HOGG/ZAPATA RANCHLANDS DID A QUICK UPDATE
TO PUSH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES (FOR OBVIOUS REASONS) AND MENTION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF A HARD UPDATE...BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
OUR SATELLITE DATA SERVICE WHO IS MONITORING POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AND SUGGESTED 2-3" IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW AVERAGED TO NEAR 1" AND
WILL COVER POTENTIAL FLOODING WITH SHORT FUSED ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS THROUGH 10 PM.

AFTER 11 PM...SETTLED THINGS BACK TO 20/30 PERCENT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL RAIN...CUTTING OFF IN NORTHERN/WESTERN HIDALGO AND STARR
JUST TO BE SAFE.

WITH STORM MOTION TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST...ANY SOUTH MOVING
BOUNDARIES HEADED INTO MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER/MID
VALLEY...AND ARRIVAL OF SUNSET AND LOWER TEMPERATURES...HAVE LEFT
THE RGV OUT OF THE FUN THOUGH DID LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO
NORTHWEST CAMERON/WESTERN WILLACY JUST TO BE SAFE IF ANY DEBRIS
LIGHT RAIN CAN MAKE IT.

UPDATED FORECAST IS ON THE WEB AND IN TRADITIONAL ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD SO WILL COVER IN SECTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG CONCERN IS THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM
BAND THAT IS EASING THROUGH AND INTO MOISTURE/CAPE/ETC. RICH
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY...AND LIKE TO HOLD
TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE RANCHLANDS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS. THEREAFTER...QUICK
MESOANALYSIS HAS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RICHER ENVIRONMENT
OF THE RANCHLANDS AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE RGV. HAVING
SEEN A NUMBER OF NORTHERLY MEAN STORM MOTION EVENTS
OVERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BOTTOM LINE? I CAN`T RULE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR KHRL AND KMFE. EVEN KBRO COULD GET INTO THE
ACTION...BUT LATER TIMING AND PROXIMITY TO MOST STABLE ENVIRONMENT
SAYS HOLD OFF...FOR NOW.

OBVIOUSLY...SHOULD THE ACTION KEEP CRANKING WELL INTO THE
RANCHLANDS BEFORE SUNSET...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ACTIVITY AT
KHRL/KMFE GOES UP AND WILL AMEND FOR ALL PARAMETERS AS NECESSARY.

AFTER THE STORMS OR WHATEVER`S LEFT FADES OUT...EXPECT RESIDUAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT FOR MVFR CEILINGS THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED...WHICH IS A TEMPO GROUP AROUND/JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

FOR SATURDAY...RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT
EVEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO ACTIVATE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM TOWARD THE
COAST...AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR KBRO...UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL ENOUGH TO HOLD MENTION TO VCTS...WITH THUNDER HEARD AND
CUMULONIMBI AROUND BUT NOT NECESSARILY A DIRECT STRIKE. NOT SO FOR
KHRL WHICH TRADITIONALLY TAKES A HIT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE SITUATION. KMFE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT SHOT BUT
A BIT LATER...FOR NOW BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. PROB30 GROUPS COVER FOR
NOW.

OTHERWISE...LOW END VFR SCATTERED...PERHAPS BROKEN IN A FEW
SPOTS...AND LIGHT WINDS COVER IT ON SATURDAY.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE
NIGHT. AS OF 19Z...CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EARLIER TODAY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SHIFTING WINDS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING A
PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST LIMITING ANY SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE
SUN... CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL WEAKENING
AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND WITH
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LEFT THE INHERITED 30
PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD PLAY INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. RAIN FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM
MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON
SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PATTERN ACROSS THE US
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BLOCKING
PATTERN FINALLY RELEASES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT NO
COMPLETELY SHUTTING IT DOWN. THE NEXT AGITATOR FOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE THE MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PULL ITS INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WWD LATE IN THE WEEK PULLING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FURTHER INLAND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING GREAT
BOATING WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  91  78  92 /  10  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  93 /  10  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            78  95  78  95 /  10  20  20  30
MCALLEN              79  98  78  98 /  20  30  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 100  78 100 /  30  30  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  88  80  88 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52/51






000
FXUS64 KBRO 020349 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1049 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT ALMOST TO A T BASED
ON PRIOR UPDATE. CELL MERGER INDEED CRANKED UP THE RAIN/LIGHTNING
MACHINE ALONG THE NORTHWEST ZAPATA COUNTY LINE...WITH OTHER
ACTIVITY FIRING TO THE SOUTH IN JIM HOGG AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83
THROUGH MOST OF ZAPATA COUNTY BETWEEN 825 AND 10 PM. AS OF 1045
PM...BIG ACTION HAD SHIFTED INTO MEXICO FROM ZAPATA...AND THE JIM
HOGG COUNTY ACTIVITY WAS WINDING DOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE ONLY EFFECTS FOR PARTS OF THE RGV ARE THICKER MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND EVEN THEY ARE MOST PREVALENT FOR THE MID
VALLEY JUST NORTH OF THE BIGGER POPULATION CENTERS. KBRO 00Z
SOUNDING AND KCRP SOUNDINGS HELPED TELL THE TALE...THE STABLE AND
DRIER LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 650 MB MAY HAVE HELPED PUT UP THE STOP
SIGN FOR SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION...AS DID TIME OF
DAY AND GENERAL NE TO SW STORM MOTION.

FOR THE FINAL EVENING UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER AND WORDED FOR
DEBRIS SHOWERS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM OR SO ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST RANCHLANDS...WITH A BUFFER OF ISOLATED WORDING STILL
INTO STARR...BROOKS...AND NORTHERN HIDALGO. ALL THIS SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY 3 AM OR SO...LAST TO END THE RANCHLANDS. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LEFT ALONE...THOUGH RESHAPED RAIN CHANCE AREAS TO
BLEND BETTER WITH SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...SEE AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR SOME OF THE REASONS.

GRIDDED UPDATES AVAILABLE ON THE WEB...ZONE UPDATES TO FOLLOW.
52/BSG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON SOLID BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EASING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE JIM HOGG/ZAPATA RANCHLANDS DID A QUICK UPDATE
TO PUSH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES (FOR OBVIOUS REASONS) AND MENTION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF A HARD UPDATE...BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
OUR SATELLITE DATA SERVICE WHO IS MONITORING POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AND SUGGESTED 2-3" IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW AVERAGED TO NEAR 1" AND
WILL COVER POTENTIAL FLOODING WITH SHORT FUSED ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS THROUGH 10 PM.

AFTER 11 PM...SETTLED THINGS BACK TO 20/30 PERCENT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL RAIN...CUTTING OFF IN NORTHERN/WESTERN HIDALGO AND STARR
JUST TO BE SAFE.

WITH STORM MOTION TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST...ANY SOUTH MOVING
BOUNDARIES HEADED INTO MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER/MID
VALLEY...AND ARRIVAL OF SUNSET AND LOWER TEMPERATURES...HAVE LEFT
THE RGV OUT OF THE FUN THOUGH DID LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO
NORTHWEST CAMERON/WESTERN WILLACY JUST TO BE SAFE IF ANY DEBRIS
LIGHT RAIN CAN MAKE IT.

UPDATED FORECAST IS ON THE WEB AND IN TRADITIONAL ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD SO WILL COVER IN SECTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG CONCERN IS THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM
BAND THAT IS EASING THROUGH AND INTO MOISTURE/CAPE/ETC. RICH
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY...AND LIKE TO HOLD
TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE RANCHLANDS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS. THEREAFTER...QUICK
MESOANALYSIS HAS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RICHER ENVIRONMENT
OF THE RANCHLANDS AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE RGV. HAVING
SEEN A NUMBER OF NORTHERLY MEAN STORM MOTION EVENTS
OVERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BOTTOM LINE? I CAN`T RULE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR KHRL AND KMFE. EVEN KBRO COULD GET INTO THE
ACTION...BUT LATER TIMING AND PROXIMITY TO MOST STABLE ENVIRONMENT
SAYS HOLD OFF...FOR NOW.

OBVIOUSLY...SHOULD THE ACTION KEEP CRANKING WELL INTO THE
RANCHLANDS BEFORE SUNSET...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ACTIVITY AT
KHRL/KMFE GOES UP AND WILL AMEND FOR ALL PARAMETERS AS NECESSARY.

AFTER THE STORMS OR WHATEVER`S LEFT FADES OUT...EXPECT RESIDUAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT FOR MVFR CEILINGS THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED...WHICH IS A TEMPO GROUP AROUND/JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

FOR SATURDAY...RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT
EVEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO ACTIVATE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM TOWARD THE
COAST...AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR KBRO...UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL ENOUGH TO HOLD MENTION TO VCTS...WITH THUNDER HEARD AND
CUMULONIMBI AROUND BUT NOT NECESSARILY A DIRECT STRIKE. NOT SO FOR
KHRL WHICH TRADITIONALLY TAKES A HIT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE SITUATION. KMFE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT SHOT BUT
A BIT LATER...FOR NOW BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. PROB30 GROUPS COVER FOR
NOW.

OTHERWISE...LOW END VFR SCATTERED...PERHAPS BROKEN IN A FEW
SPOTS...AND LIGHT WINDS COVER IT ON SATURDAY.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE
NIGHT. AS OF 19Z...CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EARLIER TODAY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SHIFTING WINDS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING A
PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST LIMITING ANY SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE
SUN... CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL WEAKENING
AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND WITH
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LEFT THE INHERITED 30
PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD PLAY INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. RAIN FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM
MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON
SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PATTERN ACROSS THE US
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BLOCKING
PATTERN FINALLY RELEASES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT NO
COMPLETELY SHUTTING IT DOWN. THE NEXT AGITATOR FOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE THE MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PULL ITS INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WWD LATE IN THE WEEK PULLING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FURTHER INLAND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING GREAT
BOATING WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  91  78  92 /  10  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  93 /  10  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            78  95  78  95 /  10  20  20  30
MCALLEN              79  98  78  98 /  20  30  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 100  78 100 /  30  30  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  88  80  88 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52/51






000
FXUS64 KBRO 020349 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1049 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT ALMOST TO A T BASED
ON PRIOR UPDATE. CELL MERGER INDEED CRANKED UP THE RAIN/LIGHTNING
MACHINE ALONG THE NORTHWEST ZAPATA COUNTY LINE...WITH OTHER
ACTIVITY FIRING TO THE SOUTH IN JIM HOGG AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83
THROUGH MOST OF ZAPATA COUNTY BETWEEN 825 AND 10 PM. AS OF 1045
PM...BIG ACTION HAD SHIFTED INTO MEXICO FROM ZAPATA...AND THE JIM
HOGG COUNTY ACTIVITY WAS WINDING DOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE ONLY EFFECTS FOR PARTS OF THE RGV ARE THICKER MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND EVEN THEY ARE MOST PREVALENT FOR THE MID
VALLEY JUST NORTH OF THE BIGGER POPULATION CENTERS. KBRO 00Z
SOUNDING AND KCRP SOUNDINGS HELPED TELL THE TALE...THE STABLE AND
DRIER LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 650 MB MAY HAVE HELPED PUT UP THE STOP
SIGN FOR SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION...AS DID TIME OF
DAY AND GENERAL NE TO SW STORM MOTION.

FOR THE FINAL EVENING UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER AND WORDED FOR
DEBRIS SHOWERS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM OR SO ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST RANCHLANDS...WITH A BUFFER OF ISOLATED WORDING STILL
INTO STARR...BROOKS...AND NORTHERN HIDALGO. ALL THIS SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY 3 AM OR SO...LAST TO END THE RANCHLANDS. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LEFT ALONE...THOUGH RESHAPED RAIN CHANCE AREAS TO
BLEND BETTER WITH SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...SEE AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR SOME OF THE REASONS.

GRIDDED UPDATES AVAILABLE ON THE WEB...ZONE UPDATES TO FOLLOW.
52/BSG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON SOLID BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EASING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE JIM HOGG/ZAPATA RANCHLANDS DID A QUICK UPDATE
TO PUSH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES (FOR OBVIOUS REASONS) AND MENTION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF A HARD UPDATE...BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
OUR SATELLITE DATA SERVICE WHO IS MONITORING POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AND SUGGESTED 2-3" IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW AVERAGED TO NEAR 1" AND
WILL COVER POTENTIAL FLOODING WITH SHORT FUSED ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS THROUGH 10 PM.

AFTER 11 PM...SETTLED THINGS BACK TO 20/30 PERCENT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL RAIN...CUTTING OFF IN NORTHERN/WESTERN HIDALGO AND STARR
JUST TO BE SAFE.

WITH STORM MOTION TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST...ANY SOUTH MOVING
BOUNDARIES HEADED INTO MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER/MID
VALLEY...AND ARRIVAL OF SUNSET AND LOWER TEMPERATURES...HAVE LEFT
THE RGV OUT OF THE FUN THOUGH DID LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO
NORTHWEST CAMERON/WESTERN WILLACY JUST TO BE SAFE IF ANY DEBRIS
LIGHT RAIN CAN MAKE IT.

UPDATED FORECAST IS ON THE WEB AND IN TRADITIONAL ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD SO WILL COVER IN SECTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG CONCERN IS THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM
BAND THAT IS EASING THROUGH AND INTO MOISTURE/CAPE/ETC. RICH
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY...AND LIKE TO HOLD
TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE RANCHLANDS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS. THEREAFTER...QUICK
MESOANALYSIS HAS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RICHER ENVIRONMENT
OF THE RANCHLANDS AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE RGV. HAVING
SEEN A NUMBER OF NORTHERLY MEAN STORM MOTION EVENTS
OVERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BOTTOM LINE? I CAN`T RULE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR KHRL AND KMFE. EVEN KBRO COULD GET INTO THE
ACTION...BUT LATER TIMING AND PROXIMITY TO MOST STABLE ENVIRONMENT
SAYS HOLD OFF...FOR NOW.

OBVIOUSLY...SHOULD THE ACTION KEEP CRANKING WELL INTO THE
RANCHLANDS BEFORE SUNSET...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ACTIVITY AT
KHRL/KMFE GOES UP AND WILL AMEND FOR ALL PARAMETERS AS NECESSARY.

AFTER THE STORMS OR WHATEVER`S LEFT FADES OUT...EXPECT RESIDUAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT FOR MVFR CEILINGS THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED...WHICH IS A TEMPO GROUP AROUND/JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

FOR SATURDAY...RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT
EVEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO ACTIVATE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM TOWARD THE
COAST...AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR KBRO...UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL ENOUGH TO HOLD MENTION TO VCTS...WITH THUNDER HEARD AND
CUMULONIMBI AROUND BUT NOT NECESSARILY A DIRECT STRIKE. NOT SO FOR
KHRL WHICH TRADITIONALLY TAKES A HIT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE SITUATION. KMFE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT SHOT BUT
A BIT LATER...FOR NOW BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. PROB30 GROUPS COVER FOR
NOW.

OTHERWISE...LOW END VFR SCATTERED...PERHAPS BROKEN IN A FEW
SPOTS...AND LIGHT WINDS COVER IT ON SATURDAY.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE
NIGHT. AS OF 19Z...CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EARLIER TODAY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SHIFTING WINDS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING A
PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST LIMITING ANY SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE
SUN... CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL WEAKENING
AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND WITH
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LEFT THE INHERITED 30
PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD PLAY INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. RAIN FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM
MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON
SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PATTERN ACROSS THE US
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BLOCKING
PATTERN FINALLY RELEASES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT NO
COMPLETELY SHUTTING IT DOWN. THE NEXT AGITATOR FOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE THE MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PULL ITS INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WWD LATE IN THE WEEK PULLING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FURTHER INLAND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING GREAT
BOATING WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  91  78  92 /  10  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  93 /  10  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            78  95  78  95 /  10  20  20  30
MCALLEN              79  98  78  98 /  20  30  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 100  78 100 /  30  30  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  88  80  88 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52/51






000
FXUS64 KBRO 020349 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1049 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT ALMOST TO A T BASED
ON PRIOR UPDATE. CELL MERGER INDEED CRANKED UP THE RAIN/LIGHTNING
MACHINE ALONG THE NORTHWEST ZAPATA COUNTY LINE...WITH OTHER
ACTIVITY FIRING TO THE SOUTH IN JIM HOGG AND ALONG HIGHWAY 83
THROUGH MOST OF ZAPATA COUNTY BETWEEN 825 AND 10 PM. AS OF 1045
PM...BIG ACTION HAD SHIFTED INTO MEXICO FROM ZAPATA...AND THE JIM
HOGG COUNTY ACTIVITY WAS WINDING DOWN.

MEANWHILE...THE ONLY EFFECTS FOR PARTS OF THE RGV ARE THICKER MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND EVEN THEY ARE MOST PREVALENT FOR THE MID
VALLEY JUST NORTH OF THE BIGGER POPULATION CENTERS. KBRO 00Z
SOUNDING AND KCRP SOUNDINGS HELPED TELL THE TALE...THE STABLE AND
DRIER LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 650 MB MAY HAVE HELPED PUT UP THE STOP
SIGN FOR SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION...AS DID TIME OF
DAY AND GENERAL NE TO SW STORM MOTION.

FOR THE FINAL EVENING UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER AND WORDED FOR
DEBRIS SHOWERS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM OR SO ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST RANCHLANDS...WITH A BUFFER OF ISOLATED WORDING STILL
INTO STARR...BROOKS...AND NORTHERN HIDALGO. ALL THIS SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN BY 3 AM OR SO...LAST TO END THE RANCHLANDS. REMAINDER
OF FORECAST LEFT ALONE...THOUGH RESHAPED RAIN CHANCE AREAS TO
BLEND BETTER WITH SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...SEE AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR SOME OF THE REASONS.

GRIDDED UPDATES AVAILABLE ON THE WEB...ZONE UPDATES TO FOLLOW.
52/BSG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON SOLID BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EASING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE JIM HOGG/ZAPATA RANCHLANDS DID A QUICK UPDATE
TO PUSH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES (FOR OBVIOUS REASONS) AND MENTION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF A HARD UPDATE...BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
OUR SATELLITE DATA SERVICE WHO IS MONITORING POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AND SUGGESTED 2-3" IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW AVERAGED TO NEAR 1" AND
WILL COVER POTENTIAL FLOODING WITH SHORT FUSED ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS THROUGH 10 PM.

AFTER 11 PM...SETTLED THINGS BACK TO 20/30 PERCENT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL RAIN...CUTTING OFF IN NORTHERN/WESTERN HIDALGO AND STARR
JUST TO BE SAFE.

WITH STORM MOTION TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST...ANY SOUTH MOVING
BOUNDARIES HEADED INTO MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER/MID
VALLEY...AND ARRIVAL OF SUNSET AND LOWER TEMPERATURES...HAVE LEFT
THE RGV OUT OF THE FUN THOUGH DID LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO
NORTHWEST CAMERON/WESTERN WILLACY JUST TO BE SAFE IF ANY DEBRIS
LIGHT RAIN CAN MAKE IT.

UPDATED FORECAST IS ON THE WEB AND IN TRADITIONAL ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD SO WILL COVER IN SECTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG CONCERN IS THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM
BAND THAT IS EASING THROUGH AND INTO MOISTURE/CAPE/ETC. RICH
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY...AND LIKE TO HOLD
TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE RANCHLANDS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS. THEREAFTER...QUICK
MESOANALYSIS HAS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RICHER ENVIRONMENT
OF THE RANCHLANDS AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE RGV. HAVING
SEEN A NUMBER OF NORTHERLY MEAN STORM MOTION EVENTS
OVERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BOTTOM LINE? I CAN`T RULE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR KHRL AND KMFE. EVEN KBRO COULD GET INTO THE
ACTION...BUT LATER TIMING AND PROXIMITY TO MOST STABLE ENVIRONMENT
SAYS HOLD OFF...FOR NOW.

OBVIOUSLY...SHOULD THE ACTION KEEP CRANKING WELL INTO THE
RANCHLANDS BEFORE SUNSET...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ACTIVITY AT
KHRL/KMFE GOES UP AND WILL AMEND FOR ALL PARAMETERS AS NECESSARY.

AFTER THE STORMS OR WHATEVER`S LEFT FADES OUT...EXPECT RESIDUAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT FOR MVFR CEILINGS THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED...WHICH IS A TEMPO GROUP AROUND/JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

FOR SATURDAY...RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT
EVEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO ACTIVATE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM TOWARD THE
COAST...AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR KBRO...UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL ENOUGH TO HOLD MENTION TO VCTS...WITH THUNDER HEARD AND
CUMULONIMBI AROUND BUT NOT NECESSARILY A DIRECT STRIKE. NOT SO FOR
KHRL WHICH TRADITIONALLY TAKES A HIT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE SITUATION. KMFE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT SHOT BUT
A BIT LATER...FOR NOW BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. PROB30 GROUPS COVER FOR
NOW.

OTHERWISE...LOW END VFR SCATTERED...PERHAPS BROKEN IN A FEW
SPOTS...AND LIGHT WINDS COVER IT ON SATURDAY.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE
NIGHT. AS OF 19Z...CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EARLIER TODAY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SHIFTING WINDS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING A
PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST LIMITING ANY SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE
SUN... CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL WEAKENING
AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND WITH
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LEFT THE INHERITED 30
PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD PLAY INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. RAIN FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM
MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON
SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PATTERN ACROSS THE US
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BLOCKING
PATTERN FINALLY RELEASES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT NO
COMPLETELY SHUTTING IT DOWN. THE NEXT AGITATOR FOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE THE MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PULL ITS INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WWD LATE IN THE WEEK PULLING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FURTHER INLAND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING GREAT
BOATING WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  91  78  92 /  10  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  93 /  10  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            78  95  78  95 /  10  20  20  30
MCALLEN              79  98  78  98 /  20  30  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 100  78 100 /  30  30  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  88  80  88 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52/51






000
FXUS64 KHGX 020239
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
939 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW PUSHED PAST GALVESTON AND IS MAKING ITS
WAY OFF THE COAST. NORTH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINT AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS
A COOLER NIGHT THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ALSO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THANKS TO LOWER 850
TEMPERATURES. IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS 850 TEMPS AROUND 16C ARE
FORECASTED WITH 850 TEMPERATURES NEAR 18C TOWARDS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOWER 90S IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMP GRIDS TO MATCH ABOVE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK LOW TOMORROW AS MUCH DRIER PWAT AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA. YESTERDAY OBSERVED VALUES WERE AROUND 2.2" WITH VALUES
TOMORROW FORECASTED TO FALL NEAR 1.50". GPS MET SITE ALREADY
SHOWING HOUSTON PWAT VALUE DOWN TO 1.6" AT THIS HOUR. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
LOWERED POPS THIS EVENING AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. KGLS WINDS
HAVE CONTINUED TO VEER AND NOW HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THEM.
NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION.

AVIATION...

AN ATYPICAL SUMMER EVE ACROSS SE TX WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LOCATED NEAR AND NORTH OF UTS AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY PUSH TONIGHT. EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS TOMORROW AND LITTLE CHANCE OF INLAND CONVECTION. 33

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY AOA AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM PALACIOS TO
SARGENT TO ABOUT 20NM SOUTH OF GLS...WITH THE BULK OF THE RE-
DEVELOPING PCPN ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE LINE. OUTFLOWS/SEA-
BREEZE ALSO ABOUNDING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS HOLDING OVER
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SO FAR. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF THE
HIGHER POPS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVE/
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT LOWER THE OVERALL NUMBERS.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
TOMORROW. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY ACROSS MOST OF SE TX...BUT AM A BIT LOATHE TO DROP
POPS COMPLETELY FOR COASTAL ZONES/WATERS FOR TOMORROW (DURING
THE DAY). THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED MOVES BACK ONSHORE TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO SUN AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF INCREASING POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. POPS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A GENERALLY DAY-
TIME HEATING/SEABREEZE DRIVEN PCPN PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER  TROF AXIS LINGERING JUST EAST OF
THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE LOWER POPS/WARMER TEMPS BY THE LAT-
TER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL START FOR AUGUST COURTESY
OF THIS WEAK FRONT. BETWEEN THAT AND THE CLOUDS/PCPN...THESE
LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
END BEFORE REBOUNDING THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LA ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS
(SOME STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE AT TIMES). WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE (DEPENDENT ON POSITION OF MEANDERING BOUNDARY)
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN <3FT. A MORE PREVALENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME EARLY TO MID PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  89  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  89  73  92  74 /  10  10  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  91  79  89  78 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23



000
FXUS64 KHGX 020239
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
939 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW PUSHED PAST GALVESTON AND IS MAKING ITS
WAY OFF THE COAST. NORTH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINT AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS
A COOLER NIGHT THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TOMORROW AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ALSO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THANKS TO LOWER 850
TEMPERATURES. IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS 850 TEMPS AROUND 16C ARE
FORECASTED WITH 850 TEMPERATURES NEAR 18C TOWARDS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOWER 90S IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMP GRIDS TO MATCH ABOVE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK LOW TOMORROW AS MUCH DRIER PWAT AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA. YESTERDAY OBSERVED VALUES WERE AROUND 2.2" WITH VALUES
TOMORROW FORECASTED TO FALL NEAR 1.50". GPS MET SITE ALREADY
SHOWING HOUSTON PWAT VALUE DOWN TO 1.6" AT THIS HOUR. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
LOWERED POPS THIS EVENING AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. KGLS WINDS
HAVE CONTINUED TO VEER AND NOW HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THEM.
NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION.

AVIATION...

AN ATYPICAL SUMMER EVE ACROSS SE TX WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LOCATED NEAR AND NORTH OF UTS AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY PUSH TONIGHT. EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS TOMORROW AND LITTLE CHANCE OF INLAND CONVECTION. 33

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY AOA AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM PALACIOS TO
SARGENT TO ABOUT 20NM SOUTH OF GLS...WITH THE BULK OF THE RE-
DEVELOPING PCPN ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE LINE. OUTFLOWS/SEA-
BREEZE ALSO ABOUNDING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS HOLDING OVER
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SO FAR. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF THE
HIGHER POPS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVE/
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT LOWER THE OVERALL NUMBERS.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
TOMORROW. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY ACROSS MOST OF SE TX...BUT AM A BIT LOATHE TO DROP
POPS COMPLETELY FOR COASTAL ZONES/WATERS FOR TOMORROW (DURING
THE DAY). THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED MOVES BACK ONSHORE TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO SUN AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF INCREASING POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. POPS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A GENERALLY DAY-
TIME HEATING/SEABREEZE DRIVEN PCPN PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER  TROF AXIS LINGERING JUST EAST OF
THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE LOWER POPS/WARMER TEMPS BY THE LAT-
TER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL START FOR AUGUST COURTESY
OF THIS WEAK FRONT. BETWEEN THAT AND THE CLOUDS/PCPN...THESE
LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
END BEFORE REBOUNDING THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LA ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS
(SOME STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE AT TIMES). WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE (DEPENDENT ON POSITION OF MEANDERING BOUNDARY)
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN <3FT. A MORE PREVALENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME EARLY TO MID PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  89  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  89  73  92  74 /  10  10  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  91  79  89  78 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23




000
FXUS64 KFWD 020159 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
859 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST SKY COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FARTHER WEST...HAVE SHOWN
MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR EARLY
AUGUST IS IN STORE.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT ALONG
AND WEST OF I-35 WHERE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING IN FOR
THE TIME BEING. WE ONLY EXPECT THIS TO BE TEMPORARY AS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 75-80 PERCENT RH CONTINUING BELOW THE FRONTAL
INVERSION THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.

WITH COOLING TONIGHT BELOW THE INVERSION...THE PLAN IS TO REINTRODUCE
LOW VFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. RICHER BOUNDARY MOISTURE SHOULD BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF THE AREA... INCLUDING WACO WHERE A BRIEF
TEMPO PERIOD FOR MVFR CIGS ABOVE 020 WILL BE ADVERTISED FROM
SUNRISE TO MID MORNING. DFW METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE DEEPER
MIXING AND REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THIS
EVENING.

NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS AT 4-7 KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS ON SATURDAY.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING DECEASING
CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONALLY HOT AND RAIN FREE WEATHER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SOME DEVIATIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS SOLUTIONS BREAKS THE
UPPER RIDGE DOWN AND MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
KEEP THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED HOT AND
RAIN-FREE WEATHER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  90  73  93  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              69  91  71  93  71 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             66  86  68  89  68 /   5  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            67  89  68  93  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  89  68  90  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            70  90  74  91  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  87  71  92  70 /   5  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  88  71  92  71 /  10  10   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  92  70  93  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  91  68  92  67 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 020159 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
859 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST SKY COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY
THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FARTHER WEST...HAVE SHOWN
MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR EARLY
AUGUST IS IN STORE.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 645 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT ALONG
AND WEST OF I-35 WHERE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING IN FOR
THE TIME BEING. WE ONLY EXPECT THIS TO BE TEMPORARY AS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 75-80 PERCENT RH CONTINUING BELOW THE FRONTAL
INVERSION THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.

WITH COOLING TONIGHT BELOW THE INVERSION...THE PLAN IS TO REINTRODUCE
LOW VFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. RICHER BOUNDARY MOISTURE SHOULD BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF THE AREA... INCLUDING WACO WHERE A BRIEF
TEMPO PERIOD FOR MVFR CIGS ABOVE 020 WILL BE ADVERTISED FROM
SUNRISE TO MID MORNING. DFW METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE DEEPER
MIXING AND REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THIS
EVENING.

NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS AT 4-7 KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS ON SATURDAY.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING DECEASING
CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONALLY HOT AND RAIN FREE WEATHER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SOME DEVIATIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS SOLUTIONS BREAKS THE
UPPER RIDGE DOWN AND MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
KEEP THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED HOT AND
RAIN-FREE WEATHER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  90  73  93  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              69  91  71  93  71 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             66  86  68  89  68 /   5  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            67  89  68  93  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  89  68  90  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            70  90  74  91  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  87  71  92  70 /   5  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  88  71  92  71 /  10  10   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  92  70  93  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  91  68  92  67 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KEWX 020145
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
845 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE EWX CWA...SHIFTING WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO REMAINING INSTABILITY AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. A FEW MODELS INDICATING
RE-DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING NEAR THE CRP/EWX
CWA BORDER ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS UP THROUGH THW EDWARD
PLATAEA...CURRENTLY HANDLED WITH THE LOW POPS. NO MAJOR CHANGES
REQUIRED TO ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
SCATTERED AREAS OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL HOLD VFR SKIES IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR FOR THE TAF SITES. AFTER A FEW
HOURS OF MORNING MVFR CIGS ALONG I-35 VFR SKIES SHOULD HOLD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIODS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND GULF COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND PRODUCE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SATURDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN HALF OF CONUS
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. AT THE
SURFACE...REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL LINGER AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND FLATTENING
THINGS OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE
FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  93  72  92  73 /  -   10  -   10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  92  69  92  70 /  -   10  -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  94  70  94  71 /  -   10  -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  70  90  71 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  92  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  91  71  91  71 /  -   -   -   10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  94  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  93  70  92  71 /  -   10  -   10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  91  72  93  73 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  94  73  94  73 /  10  10  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 020145
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
845 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE EWX CWA...SHIFTING WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO REMAINING INSTABILITY AND BETTER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. A FEW MODELS INDICATING
RE-DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING NEAR THE CRP/EWX
CWA BORDER ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS UP THROUGH THW EDWARD
PLATAEA...CURRENTLY HANDLED WITH THE LOW POPS. NO MAJOR CHANGES
REQUIRED TO ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
SCATTERED AREAS OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL HOLD VFR SKIES IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR FOR THE TAF SITES. AFTER A FEW
HOURS OF MORNING MVFR CIGS ALONG I-35 VFR SKIES SHOULD HOLD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIODS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND GULF COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND PRODUCE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SATURDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN HALF OF CONUS
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. AT THE
SURFACE...REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL LINGER AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND FLATTENING
THINGS OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE
FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  93  72  92  73 /  -   10  -   10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  92  69  92  70 /  -   10  -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  94  70  94  71 /  -   10  -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  70  90  71 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  92  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  91  71  91  71 /  -   -   -   10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  94  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  93  70  92  71 /  -   10  -   10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  91  72  93  73 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  94  73  94  73 /  10  10  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KMAF 020130 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
830 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Convection has mostly dissipated within the flash flood watch area
across the Trans Pecos. Mesoscale models including RUC13/NAM12/TTU
WRF suggest that there will be little development thru 06Z.
Thereafter these mesoscale models redevelop convection across
Presidio and Culberson Counties. Looking closely at water vapor
there is a shrtwv trof that will be moving NW into and thru
Chihuahua, MX thus providing a source for forcing overnight. Sufficient
mstr is place with PWs of 1-2 standard deviations above normal and
steering flow is 10kts or less. As such we will give the watch the
overnight hours to "pan out". May make some minor adjustments to
PoPs before local 10 PM news, but the integrity of the fcst will
remain as is for the most part.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have light easterly winds at
all terminals this evening with some light showers south of CNM
and in/near the Davis Mountains. Could see an increase in
SHRA/TSRA coverage tonight but best chances will be confined to
the far west, possibly affecting CNM, PEQ and FST at some point.
Not expecting any vis restrictions at this time therefore will not
include mention of SHRA in the TAF. However, will need to amend
if TSRA develops. Otherwise, light easterly winds will continue
through Saturday with best TSRA chances remaining to the west of
most terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An elongated and fractured upper ridge extending from SoCal to the
Mexican states of Chihuahua/Coahuila is aiding monsoonal moisture in
staying over Arizona and New Mexico, and over the western half or so
of the forecast area this afternoon.  A shortwave trough translating
slowly east/southeastward between the ua ridge and an ua trough over
the eastern ConUS is the reason for the fracture, and also playing a
hand in fairly widespread convection we`ve seen last night and so
far today.  There also appears to be at least two Mesoscale
Convective Vortices (MCVs), from earlier convection, spinning near
the Guadalupe Mountains, and the other near El Paso.  A surface
ridge over eastern portions of the forecast area is fostering a more
stable atmosphere, although showers have been able to move into the
central Permian Basin early this afternoon.

Cloud cover over the higher terrain of West Texas is beginning to
thin this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms from earlier are
moving into the PB and west central Texas.  This will allow the
atmosphere to destabilize before nightfall, and along with
persistent upslope flow and close proximity to the mentioned ua
features, result in additional shower and thunderstorm development.
Will continue to carry the highest PoPs over these areas tonight and
Saturday.  Precipitable Water is fairly high over the western third
of the forecast area, around 1.5 inches, while the soil is wet, and
flash flood guidance low.  The steering flow around/under the ua
ridge is weak so slow moving thunderstorms, some strong, could drop
1-2 inches of rain per hour.  Considering all this, will issue a
Flash Flood Watch (FFA) for locations along and west of a Guadalupe
Mountains, to Alpine to Presidio line tonight and Saturday.  Also
have concerns about Eddy County in southeast New Mexico where
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches have occurred in the last couple
of days.  It doesn`t appear the atmosphere will destabilize there
quite as much through the rest of the day, so have not included them
in the FFA.  Subsequent shifts will have to monitor and adjust
accordingly.  There could also be additional rises along the Rio
Grande River tonight and Saturday due to runoff from heavy rainfall
over the forecast area, in addition to the potential for heavy rain
over eastern Chihuahua and more water flowing into the Rio Grande
from the Rio Conchos.

Saturday night and thereafter, the eastern ConUS ua trough will
translate eastward, allowing the ua ridge to expand eastward back
over the region.  We should see a gradual decrease in monsoonal
moisture over the region as a result, more subsidence, lower rain
chances and temperatures warming back to normal levels as early as
Tuesday.  There still could be heavy rain concerns along the western
fringe of the forecast area Saturday night, if not Sunday.  Later
shifts will have to monitor the progress of the ua features to see
whether an extension of the FFA is needed.  Rain chances may be few
and far between from Sunday until Wednesday, but there are
indications another ua trough will flatten the ridge mid next week
and allow for more rain chances.  For now, will just keep a slight
chance of thunderstorms mainly over the western half of the forecast
area for mid to late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  88  66  89  /  20  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              70  91  68  91  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                67  86  68  89  /  50  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  75  91  74  96  /  30  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  87  68  90  /  30  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  76  63  79  /  60  60  30  30
HOBBS NM                   66  85  65  87  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   63  77  63  81  /  60  70  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  90  67  90  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  69  90  67  89  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    68  90  69  91  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Marfa Plateau...Presidio Valley...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 020130 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
830 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Convection has mostly dissipated within the flash flood watch area
across the Trans Pecos. Mesoscale models including RUC13/NAM12/TTU
WRF suggest that there will be little development thru 06Z.
Thereafter these mesoscale models redevelop convection across
Presidio and Culberson Counties. Looking closely at water vapor
there is a shrtwv trof that will be moving NW into and thru
Chihuahua, MX thus providing a source for forcing overnight. Sufficient
mstr is place with PWs of 1-2 standard deviations above normal and
steering flow is 10kts or less. As such we will give the watch the
overnight hours to "pan out". May make some minor adjustments to
PoPs before local 10 PM news, but the integrity of the fcst will
remain as is for the most part.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have light easterly winds at
all terminals this evening with some light showers south of CNM
and in/near the Davis Mountains. Could see an increase in
SHRA/TSRA coverage tonight but best chances will be confined to
the far west, possibly affecting CNM, PEQ and FST at some point.
Not expecting any vis restrictions at this time therefore will not
include mention of SHRA in the TAF. However, will need to amend
if TSRA develops. Otherwise, light easterly winds will continue
through Saturday with best TSRA chances remaining to the west of
most terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An elongated and fractured upper ridge extending from SoCal to the
Mexican states of Chihuahua/Coahuila is aiding monsoonal moisture in
staying over Arizona and New Mexico, and over the western half or so
of the forecast area this afternoon.  A shortwave trough translating
slowly east/southeastward between the ua ridge and an ua trough over
the eastern ConUS is the reason for the fracture, and also playing a
hand in fairly widespread convection we`ve seen last night and so
far today.  There also appears to be at least two Mesoscale
Convective Vortices (MCVs), from earlier convection, spinning near
the Guadalupe Mountains, and the other near El Paso.  A surface
ridge over eastern portions of the forecast area is fostering a more
stable atmosphere, although showers have been able to move into the
central Permian Basin early this afternoon.

Cloud cover over the higher terrain of West Texas is beginning to
thin this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms from earlier are
moving into the PB and west central Texas.  This will allow the
atmosphere to destabilize before nightfall, and along with
persistent upslope flow and close proximity to the mentioned ua
features, result in additional shower and thunderstorm development.
Will continue to carry the highest PoPs over these areas tonight and
Saturday.  Precipitable Water is fairly high over the western third
of the forecast area, around 1.5 inches, while the soil is wet, and
flash flood guidance low.  The steering flow around/under the ua
ridge is weak so slow moving thunderstorms, some strong, could drop
1-2 inches of rain per hour.  Considering all this, will issue a
Flash Flood Watch (FFA) for locations along and west of a Guadalupe
Mountains, to Alpine to Presidio line tonight and Saturday.  Also
have concerns about Eddy County in southeast New Mexico where
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches have occurred in the last couple
of days.  It doesn`t appear the atmosphere will destabilize there
quite as much through the rest of the day, so have not included them
in the FFA.  Subsequent shifts will have to monitor and adjust
accordingly.  There could also be additional rises along the Rio
Grande River tonight and Saturday due to runoff from heavy rainfall
over the forecast area, in addition to the potential for heavy rain
over eastern Chihuahua and more water flowing into the Rio Grande
from the Rio Conchos.

Saturday night and thereafter, the eastern ConUS ua trough will
translate eastward, allowing the ua ridge to expand eastward back
over the region.  We should see a gradual decrease in monsoonal
moisture over the region as a result, more subsidence, lower rain
chances and temperatures warming back to normal levels as early as
Tuesday.  There still could be heavy rain concerns along the western
fringe of the forecast area Saturday night, if not Sunday.  Later
shifts will have to monitor the progress of the ua features to see
whether an extension of the FFA is needed.  Rain chances may be few
and far between from Sunday until Wednesday, but there are
indications another ua trough will flatten the ridge mid next week
and allow for more rain chances.  For now, will just keep a slight
chance of thunderstorms mainly over the western half of the forecast
area for mid to late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  88  66  89  /  20  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              70  91  68  91  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                67  86  68  89  /  50  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  75  91  74  96  /  30  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  87  68  90  /  30  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  76  63  79  /  60  60  30  30
HOBBS NM                   66  85  65  87  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   63  77  63  81  /  60  70  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  90  67  90  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  69  90  67  89  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    68  90  69  91  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Marfa Plateau...Presidio Valley...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KCRP 020121 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
821 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS
EVIDENT IN THE 2.29 PW VALUES ON THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING. OUTFLOW
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PROMOTED ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS AND
CELL MERGERS OVER THE W/SW PART OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS MATERIALIZED MAINLY ACROSS DUVAL AND S AND
SE PART OF WEBB COUNTY. DUAL POL RAINFALL ESTIMATES PLACE 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. CURRENTLY...
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEBB/DUVAL
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. UPDATED THE
POPS...WX...AND QPF GRIDS THROUGH 06Z BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS
A RESULT OF BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. OUTFLOW MAY IMPACT
THE CRP TAF SITE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW/NNW WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS MORE LIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT LRD/ALI. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS REMARKS AND TEMPO THUNDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL
AMEND AS TRENDS DICTATE. BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE RETAINED IN THE FORECAST.
RENEWED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY AT LRD/ALI/CRP. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LESS THAN 12 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
CONTINUE TO PROG A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS NW-SE
ACRS THE SWRN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THESE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT
TO WHETHER WEAK DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WL ENTER THE CWA DRG THE
PERIOD AND DIFFER AS TO WHETHER SUBSIDENCE WL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. WL SIMPLY FOCUS ON SFC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MSTR CONVERGENCE AND HIGH/ABOVE
AVERAGE PWAT MAGNITUDES. ISOLD CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE
EXTREME NRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE E-W ALONG/NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY WL MOVE SLOWLY
SWD SATURDAY AND THUS EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO SHIFT
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SATURDAY...CONSISTENT WITH SREF QPF
PROBABILITY PATTERN DRG THE PERIOD. NAM SOUNDING MORE CONDUCIVE TO
LOCALLY-HEAVY RAINFALL SAT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN CWA. OWING TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...EXPECT LGT WIND DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT
MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SATURDAY TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 100F.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH AS
UPPER HIGH AND DEEP LOW BRING A NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW TOWARD SOUTH
TEXAS. PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN START TO
RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY (THAT IS BORDERLINE
MOISTURE) AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY THE CAP
BECOMES STRONGER AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE STAYS ABOUT THE SAME...WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AND WITH STRONGER CAP...FEEL IT BEST TO LEAVE RAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS IS STILL SHOWING
A TUTT LOW MOVING INTO MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY (WELL SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE)...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES FARTHER WEST INLAND. 00Z
ECMWF HAD THIS FEATURE...AND MOVED IT INLAND BUT NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE RIO GRANDE. 12Z ECMWF NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE NOW. THUS...AM
GOING TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY AND DITTO ON FRIDAY. AM
NOT SAYING THAT RAIN IS OUT OF THE QUESTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT FEEL ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION AND INCLUDE A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL...TEMPERATURE
FORECAST LOOKED REASONABLE AND DID MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP BY MID WEEK (HIGHS AND LOWS).
BY THURSDAY HEAT INDICES AOA 105F BUT AOB 110F WILL BE BACK OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. ON THE MARINE
SIDE...SHOULD SEE WINDS BELOW SCA (AND SCEC) THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  75  95  74  /  20  30  10  20  20
VICTORIA          74  93  75  95  73  /  20  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            79  96  78  99  80  /  60  30  20  10  10
ALICE             75  95  74  98  73  /  30  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  88  78  91  78  /  20  30  10  20  20
COTULLA           76  94  75  98  76  /  30  30  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  75  97  74  /  30  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  87  78  91  78  /  20  30  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 020121 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
821 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS
EVIDENT IN THE 2.29 PW VALUES ON THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING. OUTFLOW
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PROMOTED ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS AND
CELL MERGERS OVER THE W/SW PART OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS MATERIALIZED MAINLY ACROSS DUVAL AND S AND
SE PART OF WEBB COUNTY. DUAL POL RAINFALL ESTIMATES PLACE 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. CURRENTLY...
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEBB/DUVAL
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. UPDATED THE
POPS...WX...AND QPF GRIDS THROUGH 06Z BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS
A RESULT OF BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. OUTFLOW MAY IMPACT
THE CRP TAF SITE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW/NNW WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS MORE LIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT LRD/ALI. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS REMARKS AND TEMPO THUNDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL
AMEND AS TRENDS DICTATE. BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE RETAINED IN THE FORECAST.
RENEWED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY AT LRD/ALI/CRP. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LESS THAN 12 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
CONTINUE TO PROG A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS NW-SE
ACRS THE SWRN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THESE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT
TO WHETHER WEAK DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WL ENTER THE CWA DRG THE
PERIOD AND DIFFER AS TO WHETHER SUBSIDENCE WL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. WL SIMPLY FOCUS ON SFC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MSTR CONVERGENCE AND HIGH/ABOVE
AVERAGE PWAT MAGNITUDES. ISOLD CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE
EXTREME NRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE E-W ALONG/NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY WL MOVE SLOWLY
SWD SATURDAY AND THUS EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO SHIFT
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SATURDAY...CONSISTENT WITH SREF QPF
PROBABILITY PATTERN DRG THE PERIOD. NAM SOUNDING MORE CONDUCIVE TO
LOCALLY-HEAVY RAINFALL SAT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN CWA. OWING TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...EXPECT LGT WIND DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT
MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SATURDAY TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 100F.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH AS
UPPER HIGH AND DEEP LOW BRING A NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW TOWARD SOUTH
TEXAS. PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN START TO
RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY (THAT IS BORDERLINE
MOISTURE) AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY THE CAP
BECOMES STRONGER AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE STAYS ABOUT THE SAME...WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AND WITH STRONGER CAP...FEEL IT BEST TO LEAVE RAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS IS STILL SHOWING
A TUTT LOW MOVING INTO MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY (WELL SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE)...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES FARTHER WEST INLAND. 00Z
ECMWF HAD THIS FEATURE...AND MOVED IT INLAND BUT NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE RIO GRANDE. 12Z ECMWF NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE NOW. THUS...AM
GOING TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY AND DITTO ON FRIDAY. AM
NOT SAYING THAT RAIN IS OUT OF THE QUESTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT FEEL ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION AND INCLUDE A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL...TEMPERATURE
FORECAST LOOKED REASONABLE AND DID MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP BY MID WEEK (HIGHS AND LOWS).
BY THURSDAY HEAT INDICES AOA 105F BUT AOB 110F WILL BE BACK OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. ON THE MARINE
SIDE...SHOULD SEE WINDS BELOW SCA (AND SCEC) THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  75  95  74  /  20  30  10  20  20
VICTORIA          74  93  75  95  73  /  20  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            79  96  78  99  80  /  60  30  20  10  10
ALICE             75  95  74  98  73  /  30  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  88  78  91  78  /  20  30  10  20  20
COTULLA           76  94  75  98  76  /  30  30  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  75  97  74  /  30  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  87  78  91  78  /  20  30  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KBRO 020113 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
813 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON SOLID BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EASING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE JIM HOGG/ZAPATA RANCHLANDS DID A QUICK UPDATE
TO PUSH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES (FOR OBVIOUS REASONS) AND MENTION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF A HARD UPDATE...BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
OUR SATELLITE DATA SERVICE WHO IS MONITORING POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AND SUGGESTED 2-3" IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW AVERAGED TO NEAR 1" AND
WILL COVER POTENTIAL FLOODING WITH SHORT FUSED ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS THROUGH 10 PM.

AFTER 11 PM...SETTLED THINGS BACK TO 20/30 PERCENT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL RAIN...CUTTING OFF IN NORTHERN/WESTERN HIDALGO AND STARR
JUST TO BE SAFE.

WITH STORM MOTION TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST...ANY SOUTH MOVING
BOUNDARIES HEADED INTO MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER/MID
VALLEY...AND ARRIVAL OF SUNSET AND LOWER TEMPERATURES...HAVE LEFT
THE RGV OUT OF THE FUN THOUGH DID LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO
NORTHWEST CAMERON/WESTERN WILLACY JUST TO BE SAFE IF ANY DEBRIS
LIGHT RAIN CAN MAKE IT.

UPDATED FORECAST IS ON THE WEB AND IN TRADITIONAL ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT.
52/BSG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD SO WILL COVER IN SECTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG CONCERN IS THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM
BAND THAT IS EASING THROUGH AND INTO MOISTURE/CAPE/ETC. RICH
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY...AND LIKE TO HOLD
TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE RANCHLANDS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS. THEREAFTER...QUICK
MESOANALYSIS HAS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RICHER ENVIRONMENT
OF THE RANCHLANDS AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE RGV. HAVING
SEEN A NUMBER OF NORTHERLY MEAN STORM MOTION EVENTS
OVERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BOTTOM LINE? I CAN`T RULE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR KHRL AND KMFE. EVEN KBRO COULD GET INTO THE
ACTION...BUT LATER TIMING AND PROXIMITY TO MOST STABLE ENVIRONMENT
SAYS HOLD OFF...FOR NOW.

OBVIOUSLY...SHOULD THE ACTION KEEP CRANKING WELL INTO THE
RANCHLANDS BEFORE SUNSET...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ACTIVITY AT
KHRL/KMFE GOES UP AND WILL AMEND FOR ALL PARAMETERS AS NECESSARY.

AFTER THE STORMS OR WHATEVER`S LEFT FADES OUT...EXPECT RESIDUAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT FOR MVFR CEILINGS THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED...WHICH IS A TEMPO GROUP AROUND/JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

FOR SATURDAY...RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT
EVEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO ACTIVATE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM TOWARD THE
COAST...AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR KBRO...UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL ENOUGH TO HOLD MENTION TO VCTS...WITH THUNDER HEARD AND
CUMULONIMBI AROUND BUT NOT NECESSARILY A DIRECT STRIKE. NOT SO FOR
KHRL WHICH TRADITIONALLY TAKES A HIT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE SITUATION. KMFE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT SHOT BUT
A BIT LATER...FOR NOW BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. PROB30 GROUPS COVER FOR
NOW.

OTHERWISE...LOW END VFR SCATTERED...PERHAPS BROKEN IN A FEW
SPOTS...AND LIGHT WINDS COVER IT ON SATURDAY.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE
NIGHT. AS OF 19Z...CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EARLIER TODAY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SHIFTING WINDS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING A
PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST LIMITING ANY SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE
SUN... CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL WEAKENING
AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND WITH
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LEFT THE INHERITED 30
PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD PLAY INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. RAIN FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM
MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON
SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PATTERN ACROSS THE US
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BLOCKING
PATTERN FINALLY RELEASES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT NO
COMPLETELY SHUTTING IT DOWN. THE NEXT AGITATOR FOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE THE MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PULL ITS INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WWD LATE IN THE WEEK PULLING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FURTHER INLAND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING GREAT
BOATING WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  91  78  92 /  10  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  93 /  10  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            78  95  78  95 /  10  20  20  30
MCALLEN              79  98  78  98 /  20  30  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 100  78 100 /  30  30  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  88  80  88 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52/51





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020113 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
813 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON SOLID BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EASING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE JIM HOGG/ZAPATA RANCHLANDS DID A QUICK UPDATE
TO PUSH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES (FOR OBVIOUS REASONS) AND MENTION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF A HARD UPDATE...BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
OUR SATELLITE DATA SERVICE WHO IS MONITORING POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AND SUGGESTED 2-3" IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW AVERAGED TO NEAR 1" AND
WILL COVER POTENTIAL FLOODING WITH SHORT FUSED ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS THROUGH 10 PM.

AFTER 11 PM...SETTLED THINGS BACK TO 20/30 PERCENT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL RAIN...CUTTING OFF IN NORTHERN/WESTERN HIDALGO AND STARR
JUST TO BE SAFE.

WITH STORM MOTION TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST...ANY SOUTH MOVING
BOUNDARIES HEADED INTO MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER/MID
VALLEY...AND ARRIVAL OF SUNSET AND LOWER TEMPERATURES...HAVE LEFT
THE RGV OUT OF THE FUN THOUGH DID LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO
NORTHWEST CAMERON/WESTERN WILLACY JUST TO BE SAFE IF ANY DEBRIS
LIGHT RAIN CAN MAKE IT.

UPDATED FORECAST IS ON THE WEB AND IN TRADITIONAL ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT.
52/BSG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD SO WILL COVER IN SECTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG CONCERN IS THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM
BAND THAT IS EASING THROUGH AND INTO MOISTURE/CAPE/ETC. RICH
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY...AND LIKE TO HOLD
TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE RANCHLANDS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS. THEREAFTER...QUICK
MESOANALYSIS HAS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RICHER ENVIRONMENT
OF THE RANCHLANDS AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE RGV. HAVING
SEEN A NUMBER OF NORTHERLY MEAN STORM MOTION EVENTS
OVERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BOTTOM LINE? I CAN`T RULE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR KHRL AND KMFE. EVEN KBRO COULD GET INTO THE
ACTION...BUT LATER TIMING AND PROXIMITY TO MOST STABLE ENVIRONMENT
SAYS HOLD OFF...FOR NOW.

OBVIOUSLY...SHOULD THE ACTION KEEP CRANKING WELL INTO THE
RANCHLANDS BEFORE SUNSET...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ACTIVITY AT
KHRL/KMFE GOES UP AND WILL AMEND FOR ALL PARAMETERS AS NECESSARY.

AFTER THE STORMS OR WHATEVER`S LEFT FADES OUT...EXPECT RESIDUAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT FOR MVFR CEILINGS THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED...WHICH IS A TEMPO GROUP AROUND/JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

FOR SATURDAY...RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT
EVEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO ACTIVATE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM TOWARD THE
COAST...AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR KBRO...UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL ENOUGH TO HOLD MENTION TO VCTS...WITH THUNDER HEARD AND
CUMULONIMBI AROUND BUT NOT NECESSARILY A DIRECT STRIKE. NOT SO FOR
KHRL WHICH TRADITIONALLY TAKES A HIT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE SITUATION. KMFE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT SHOT BUT
A BIT LATER...FOR NOW BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. PROB30 GROUPS COVER FOR
NOW.

OTHERWISE...LOW END VFR SCATTERED...PERHAPS BROKEN IN A FEW
SPOTS...AND LIGHT WINDS COVER IT ON SATURDAY.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE
NIGHT. AS OF 19Z...CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EARLIER TODAY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SHIFTING WINDS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING A
PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST LIMITING ANY SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE
SUN... CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL WEAKENING
AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND WITH
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LEFT THE INHERITED 30
PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD PLAY INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. RAIN FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM
MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON
SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PATTERN ACROSS THE US
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BLOCKING
PATTERN FINALLY RELEASES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT NO
COMPLETELY SHUTTING IT DOWN. THE NEXT AGITATOR FOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE THE MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PULL ITS INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WWD LATE IN THE WEEK PULLING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FURTHER INLAND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING GREAT
BOATING WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  91  78  92 /  10  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  93 /  10  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            78  95  78  95 /  10  20  20  30
MCALLEN              79  98  78  98 /  20  30  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 100  78 100 /  30  30  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  88  80  88 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52/51





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020113 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
813 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON SOLID BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EASING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE JIM HOGG/ZAPATA RANCHLANDS DID A QUICK UPDATE
TO PUSH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES (FOR OBVIOUS REASONS) AND MENTION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF A HARD UPDATE...BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
OUR SATELLITE DATA SERVICE WHO IS MONITORING POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AND SUGGESTED 2-3" IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW AVERAGED TO NEAR 1" AND
WILL COVER POTENTIAL FLOODING WITH SHORT FUSED ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS THROUGH 10 PM.

AFTER 11 PM...SETTLED THINGS BACK TO 20/30 PERCENT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL RAIN...CUTTING OFF IN NORTHERN/WESTERN HIDALGO AND STARR
JUST TO BE SAFE.

WITH STORM MOTION TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST...ANY SOUTH MOVING
BOUNDARIES HEADED INTO MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER/MID
VALLEY...AND ARRIVAL OF SUNSET AND LOWER TEMPERATURES...HAVE LEFT
THE RGV OUT OF THE FUN THOUGH DID LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO
NORTHWEST CAMERON/WESTERN WILLACY JUST TO BE SAFE IF ANY DEBRIS
LIGHT RAIN CAN MAKE IT.

UPDATED FORECAST IS ON THE WEB AND IN TRADITIONAL ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT.
52/BSG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD SO WILL COVER IN SECTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG CONCERN IS THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM
BAND THAT IS EASING THROUGH AND INTO MOISTURE/CAPE/ETC. RICH
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY...AND LIKE TO HOLD
TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE RANCHLANDS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS. THEREAFTER...QUICK
MESOANALYSIS HAS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RICHER ENVIRONMENT
OF THE RANCHLANDS AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE RGV. HAVING
SEEN A NUMBER OF NORTHERLY MEAN STORM MOTION EVENTS
OVERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BOTTOM LINE? I CAN`T RULE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR KHRL AND KMFE. EVEN KBRO COULD GET INTO THE
ACTION...BUT LATER TIMING AND PROXIMITY TO MOST STABLE ENVIRONMENT
SAYS HOLD OFF...FOR NOW.

OBVIOUSLY...SHOULD THE ACTION KEEP CRANKING WELL INTO THE
RANCHLANDS BEFORE SUNSET...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ACTIVITY AT
KHRL/KMFE GOES UP AND WILL AMEND FOR ALL PARAMETERS AS NECESSARY.

AFTER THE STORMS OR WHATEVER`S LEFT FADES OUT...EXPECT RESIDUAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT FOR MVFR CEILINGS THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED...WHICH IS A TEMPO GROUP AROUND/JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

FOR SATURDAY...RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT
EVEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO ACTIVATE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM TOWARD THE
COAST...AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR KBRO...UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL ENOUGH TO HOLD MENTION TO VCTS...WITH THUNDER HEARD AND
CUMULONIMBI AROUND BUT NOT NECESSARILY A DIRECT STRIKE. NOT SO FOR
KHRL WHICH TRADITIONALLY TAKES A HIT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE SITUATION. KMFE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT SHOT BUT
A BIT LATER...FOR NOW BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. PROB30 GROUPS COVER FOR
NOW.

OTHERWISE...LOW END VFR SCATTERED...PERHAPS BROKEN IN A FEW
SPOTS...AND LIGHT WINDS COVER IT ON SATURDAY.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE
NIGHT. AS OF 19Z...CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EARLIER TODAY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SHIFTING WINDS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING A
PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST LIMITING ANY SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE
SUN... CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL WEAKENING
AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND WITH
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LEFT THE INHERITED 30
PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD PLAY INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. RAIN FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM
MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON
SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PATTERN ACROSS THE US
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BLOCKING
PATTERN FINALLY RELEASES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT NO
COMPLETELY SHUTTING IT DOWN. THE NEXT AGITATOR FOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE THE MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PULL ITS INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WWD LATE IN THE WEEK PULLING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FURTHER INLAND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING GREAT
BOATING WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  91  78  92 /  10  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  93 /  10  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            78  95  78  95 /  10  20  20  30
MCALLEN              79  98  78  98 /  20  30  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 100  78 100 /  30  30  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  88  80  88 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52/51





000
FXUS64 KBRO 020113 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
813 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON SOLID BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EASING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE JIM HOGG/ZAPATA RANCHLANDS DID A QUICK UPDATE
TO PUSH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES (FOR OBVIOUS REASONS) AND MENTION
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. QPF A HARD UPDATE...BUT PER COORDINATION WITH
OUR SATELLITE DATA SERVICE WHO IS MONITORING POTENTIAL RAINFALL
AND SUGGESTED 2-3" IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW AVERAGED TO NEAR 1" AND
WILL COVER POTENTIAL FLOODING WITH SHORT FUSED ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS THROUGH 10 PM.

AFTER 11 PM...SETTLED THINGS BACK TO 20/30 PERCENT FOR ANY
RESIDUAL RAIN...CUTTING OFF IN NORTHERN/WESTERN HIDALGO AND STARR
JUST TO BE SAFE.

WITH STORM MOTION TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST...ANY SOUTH MOVING
BOUNDARIES HEADED INTO MORE STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER/MID
VALLEY...AND ARRIVAL OF SUNSET AND LOWER TEMPERATURES...HAVE LEFT
THE RGV OUT OF THE FUN THOUGH DID LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCES TO
NORTHWEST CAMERON/WESTERN WILLACY JUST TO BE SAFE IF ANY DEBRIS
LIGHT RAIN CAN MAKE IT.

UPDATED FORECAST IS ON THE WEB AND IN TRADITIONAL ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT.
52/BSG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD SO WILL COVER IN SECTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG CONCERN IS THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM
BAND THAT IS EASING THROUGH AND INTO MOISTURE/CAPE/ETC. RICH
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY...AND LIKE TO HOLD
TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE RANCHLANDS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS. THEREAFTER...QUICK
MESOANALYSIS HAS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RICHER ENVIRONMENT
OF THE RANCHLANDS AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE RGV. HAVING
SEEN A NUMBER OF NORTHERLY MEAN STORM MOTION EVENTS
OVERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BOTTOM LINE? I CAN`T RULE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR KHRL AND KMFE. EVEN KBRO COULD GET INTO THE
ACTION...BUT LATER TIMING AND PROXIMITY TO MOST STABLE ENVIRONMENT
SAYS HOLD OFF...FOR NOW.

OBVIOUSLY...SHOULD THE ACTION KEEP CRANKING WELL INTO THE
RANCHLANDS BEFORE SUNSET...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ACTIVITY AT
KHRL/KMFE GOES UP AND WILL AMEND FOR ALL PARAMETERS AS NECESSARY.

AFTER THE STORMS OR WHATEVER`S LEFT FADES OUT...EXPECT RESIDUAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT FOR MVFR CEILINGS THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED...WHICH IS A TEMPO GROUP AROUND/JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

FOR SATURDAY...RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT
EVEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO ACTIVATE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM TOWARD THE
COAST...AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR KBRO...UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL ENOUGH TO HOLD MENTION TO VCTS...WITH THUNDER HEARD AND
CUMULONIMBI AROUND BUT NOT NECESSARILY A DIRECT STRIKE. NOT SO FOR
KHRL WHICH TRADITIONALLY TAKES A HIT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE SITUATION. KMFE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT SHOT BUT
A BIT LATER...FOR NOW BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. PROB30 GROUPS COVER FOR
NOW.

OTHERWISE...LOW END VFR SCATTERED...PERHAPS BROKEN IN A FEW
SPOTS...AND LIGHT WINDS COVER IT ON SATURDAY.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE
NIGHT. AS OF 19Z...CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EARLIER TODAY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SHIFTING WINDS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING A
PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST LIMITING ANY SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE
SUN... CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL WEAKENING
AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND WITH
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LEFT THE INHERITED 30
PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD PLAY INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. RAIN FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM
MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON
SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PATTERN ACROSS THE US
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BLOCKING
PATTERN FINALLY RELEASES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT NO
COMPLETELY SHUTTING IT DOWN. THE NEXT AGITATOR FOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE THE MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PULL ITS INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WWD LATE IN THE WEEK PULLING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FURTHER INLAND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING GREAT
BOATING WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  91  78  92 /  10  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  93 /  10  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            78  95  78  95 /  10  20  20  30
MCALLEN              79  98  78  98 /  20  30  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 100  78 100 /  30  30  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  88  80  88 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52/51





000
FXUS64 KHGX 020016
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
716 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOWERED POPS THIS EVENING AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. KGLS WINDS
HAVE CONTINUED TO VEER AND NOW HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THEM.
NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION.

AVIATION...

AN ATYPICAL SUMMER EVE ACROSS SE TX WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LOCATED NEAR AND NORTH OF UTS AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY PUSH TONIGHT. EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS TOMORROW AND LITTLE CHANCE OF INLAND CONVECTION. 33

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY AOA AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM PALACIOS TO
SARGENT TO ABOUT 20NM SOUTH OF GLS...WITH THE BULK OF THE RE-
DEVELOPING PCPN ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE LINE. OUTFLOWS/SEA-
BREEZE ALSO ABOUNDING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS HOLDING OVER
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SO FAR. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF THE
HIGHER POPS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVE/
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT LOWER THE OVERALL NUMBERS.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
TOMORROW. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY ACROSS MOST OF SE TX...BUT AM A BIT LOATHE TO DROP
POPS COMPLETELY FOR COASTAL ZONES/WATERS FOR TOMORROW (DURING
THE DAY). THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED MOVES BACK ONSHORE TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO SUN AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF INCREASING POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. POPS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A GENERALLY DAY-
TIME HEATING/SEABREEZE DRIVEN PCPN PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER  TROF AXIS LINGERING JUST EAST OF
THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE LOWER POPS/WARMER TEMPS BY THE LAT-
TER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL START FOR AUGUST COURTESY
OF THIS WEAK FRONT. BETWEEN THAT AND THE CLOUDS/PCPN...THESE
LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
END BEFORE REBOUNDING THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LA ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS
(SOME STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE AT TIMES). WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE (DEPENDENT ON POSITION OF MEANDERING BOUNDARY)
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN <3FT. A MORE PREVALENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME EARLY TO MID PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  92  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  91  73  92  74 /  10  10  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  89  79  89  78 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23



000
FXUS64 KHGX 020016
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
716 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOWERED POPS THIS EVENING AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. KGLS WINDS
HAVE CONTINUED TO VEER AND NOW HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THEM.
NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION.

AVIATION...

AN ATYPICAL SUMMER EVE ACROSS SE TX WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LOCATED NEAR AND NORTH OF UTS AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY PUSH TONIGHT. EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS TOMORROW AND LITTLE CHANCE OF INLAND CONVECTION. 33

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY AOA AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM PALACIOS TO
SARGENT TO ABOUT 20NM SOUTH OF GLS...WITH THE BULK OF THE RE-
DEVELOPING PCPN ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE LINE. OUTFLOWS/SEA-
BREEZE ALSO ABOUNDING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS HOLDING OVER
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SO FAR. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF THE
HIGHER POPS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVE/
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT LOWER THE OVERALL NUMBERS.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
TOMORROW. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY ACROSS MOST OF SE TX...BUT AM A BIT LOATHE TO DROP
POPS COMPLETELY FOR COASTAL ZONES/WATERS FOR TOMORROW (DURING
THE DAY). THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED MOVES BACK ONSHORE TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO SUN AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF INCREASING POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. POPS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A GENERALLY DAY-
TIME HEATING/SEABREEZE DRIVEN PCPN PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER  TROF AXIS LINGERING JUST EAST OF
THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE LOWER POPS/WARMER TEMPS BY THE LAT-
TER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL START FOR AUGUST COURTESY
OF THIS WEAK FRONT. BETWEEN THAT AND THE CLOUDS/PCPN...THESE
LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
END BEFORE REBOUNDING THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LA ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS
(SOME STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE AT TIMES). WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE (DEPENDENT ON POSITION OF MEANDERING BOUNDARY)
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN <3FT. A MORE PREVALENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME EARLY TO MID PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  92  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  91  73  92  74 /  10  10  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  89  79  89  78 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23




000
FXUS64 KLUB 020007
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
706 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM STORMS
OVER THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE SET TO TRACK BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL AIR HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX
INTO THE 40S OVER SELECT LOCATIONS WITH MORE LIKELY ON THE WAY BY
THE END OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK UNDERNEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK WITH LOW-MID 80S COMMON EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT WHERE MORE INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING. MOSTLY EVERYONE
SHOULD ULTIMATELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDERNEATH CONTINUED MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S AREAWIDE. ALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

UPPER FLOW WILL VEER AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ATTEMPT TO SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REMAIN WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT DESPITE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A
BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS UPPER RIDGE EDGES
EAST OVER WTX. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SHIFTING WESTWARD.
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER NM EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE
LINE. BY MIDWEEK..A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
WILL BEAT DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP...I.E. A SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH
BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND HOPEFULLY A DEEPER MOISTURE
FEED WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION STARTING ACROSS THE NW WED AND MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG BY
MIDWEEK BUT THE TREND SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  84  59  83  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  85  59  85  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  85  60  85  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  85  63  85  62 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  87  64  86  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  87  63  86  63 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    64  87  64  86  64 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     66  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  88  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     65  91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/99/55





000
FXUS64 KLUB 020007
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
706 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM STORMS
OVER THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE SET TO TRACK BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL AIR HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX
INTO THE 40S OVER SELECT LOCATIONS WITH MORE LIKELY ON THE WAY BY
THE END OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK UNDERNEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK WITH LOW-MID 80S COMMON EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT WHERE MORE INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING. MOSTLY EVERYONE
SHOULD ULTIMATELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDERNEATH CONTINUED MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S AREAWIDE. ALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

UPPER FLOW WILL VEER AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ATTEMPT TO SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REMAIN WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT DESPITE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A
BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS UPPER RIDGE EDGES
EAST OVER WTX. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SHIFTING WESTWARD.
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER NM EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE
LINE. BY MIDWEEK..A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
WILL BEAT DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP...I.E. A SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH
BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND HOPEFULLY A DEEPER MOISTURE
FEED WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION STARTING ACROSS THE NW WED AND MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG BY
MIDWEEK BUT THE TREND SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  84  59  83  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  85  59  85  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  85  60  85  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  85  63  85  62 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  87  64  86  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  87  63  86  63 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    64  87  64  86  64 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     66  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  88  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     65  91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/99/55






000
FXUS64 KHGX 012358
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
658 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

AN ATYPICAL SUMMER EVE ACROSS SE TX WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LOCATED NEAR AND NORTH OF UTS AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY PUSH TONIGHT. EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS TOMORROW AND LITTLE CHANCE OF INLAND CONVECTION. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY AOA AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM PALACIOS TO
SARGENT TO ABOUT 20NM SOUTH OF GLS...WITH THE BULK OF THE RE-
DEVELOPING PCPN ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE LINE. OUTFLOWS/SEA-
BREEZE ALSO ABOUNDING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS HOLDING OVER
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SO FAR. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF THE
HIGHER POPS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVE/
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT LOWER THE OVERALL NUMBERS.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
TOMORROW. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY ACROSS MOST OF SE TX...BUT AM A BIT LOATHE TO DROP
POPS COMPLETELY FOR COASTAL ZONES/WATERS FOR TOMORROW (DURING
THE DAY). THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED MOVES BACK ONSHORE TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO SUN AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF INCREASING POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. POPS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A GENERALLY DAY-
TIME HEATING/SEABREEZE DRIVEN PCPN PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER  TROF AXIS LINGERING JUST EAST OF
THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE LOWER POPS/WARMER TEMPS BY THE LAT-
TER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL START FOR AUGUST COURTESY
OF THIS WEAK FRONT. BETWEEN THAT AND THE CLOUDS/PCPN...THESE
LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
END BEFORE REBOUNDING THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LA ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS
(SOME STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE AT TIMES). WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE (DEPENDENT ON POSITION OF MEANDERING BOUNDARY)
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN <3FT. A MORE PREVALENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME EARLY TO MID PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  92  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  91  73  92  74 /  30  10  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  89  79  89  78 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...33



000
FXUS64 KHGX 012358
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
658 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

AN ATYPICAL SUMMER EVE ACROSS SE TX WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LOCATED NEAR AND NORTH OF UTS AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY PUSH TONIGHT. EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS TOMORROW AND LITTLE CHANCE OF INLAND CONVECTION. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY AOA AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM PALACIOS TO
SARGENT TO ABOUT 20NM SOUTH OF GLS...WITH THE BULK OF THE RE-
DEVELOPING PCPN ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE LINE. OUTFLOWS/SEA-
BREEZE ALSO ABOUNDING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS HOLDING OVER
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SO FAR. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF THE
HIGHER POPS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVE/
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT LOWER THE OVERALL NUMBERS.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
TOMORROW. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY ACROSS MOST OF SE TX...BUT AM A BIT LOATHE TO DROP
POPS COMPLETELY FOR COASTAL ZONES/WATERS FOR TOMORROW (DURING
THE DAY). THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED MOVES BACK ONSHORE TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO SUN AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF INCREASING POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. POPS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A GENERALLY DAY-
TIME HEATING/SEABREEZE DRIVEN PCPN PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER  TROF AXIS LINGERING JUST EAST OF
THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE LOWER POPS/WARMER TEMPS BY THE LAT-
TER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL START FOR AUGUST COURTESY
OF THIS WEAK FRONT. BETWEEN THAT AND THE CLOUDS/PCPN...THESE
LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
END BEFORE REBOUNDING THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LA ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS
(SOME STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE AT TIMES). WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE (DEPENDENT ON POSITION OF MEANDERING BOUNDARY)
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN <3FT. A MORE PREVALENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME EARLY TO MID PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  92  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  91  73  92  74 /  30  10  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  89  79  89  78 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...33



000
FXUS64 KHGX 012358
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
658 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

AN ATYPICAL SUMMER EVE ACROSS SE TX WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LOCATED NEAR AND NORTH OF UTS AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY PUSH TONIGHT. EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS TOMORROW AND LITTLE CHANCE OF INLAND CONVECTION. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY AOA AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM PALACIOS TO
SARGENT TO ABOUT 20NM SOUTH OF GLS...WITH THE BULK OF THE RE-
DEVELOPING PCPN ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE LINE. OUTFLOWS/SEA-
BREEZE ALSO ABOUNDING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS HOLDING OVER
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SO FAR. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF THE
HIGHER POPS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVE/
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT LOWER THE OVERALL NUMBERS.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
TOMORROW. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY ACROSS MOST OF SE TX...BUT AM A BIT LOATHE TO DROP
POPS COMPLETELY FOR COASTAL ZONES/WATERS FOR TOMORROW (DURING
THE DAY). THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED MOVES BACK ONSHORE TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO SUN AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF INCREASING POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. POPS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A GENERALLY DAY-
TIME HEATING/SEABREEZE DRIVEN PCPN PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER  TROF AXIS LINGERING JUST EAST OF
THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE LOWER POPS/WARMER TEMPS BY THE LAT-
TER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL START FOR AUGUST COURTESY
OF THIS WEAK FRONT. BETWEEN THAT AND THE CLOUDS/PCPN...THESE
LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
END BEFORE REBOUNDING THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LA ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS
(SOME STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE AT TIMES). WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE (DEPENDENT ON POSITION OF MEANDERING BOUNDARY)
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN <3FT. A MORE PREVALENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME EARLY TO MID PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  92  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  91  73  92  74 /  30  10  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  89  79  89  78 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...33



000
FXUS64 KHGX 012358
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
658 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...

AN ATYPICAL SUMMER EVE ACROSS SE TX WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LOCATED NEAR AND NORTH OF UTS AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY PUSH TONIGHT. EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS TOMORROW AND LITTLE CHANCE OF INLAND CONVECTION. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY AOA AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM PALACIOS TO
SARGENT TO ABOUT 20NM SOUTH OF GLS...WITH THE BULK OF THE RE-
DEVELOPING PCPN ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE LINE. OUTFLOWS/SEA-
BREEZE ALSO ABOUNDING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS HOLDING OVER
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SO FAR. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF THE
HIGHER POPS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVE/
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT LOWER THE OVERALL NUMBERS.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
TOMORROW. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY ACROSS MOST OF SE TX...BUT AM A BIT LOATHE TO DROP
POPS COMPLETELY FOR COASTAL ZONES/WATERS FOR TOMORROW (DURING
THE DAY). THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED MOVES BACK ONSHORE TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO SUN AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF INCREASING POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. POPS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A GENERALLY DAY-
TIME HEATING/SEABREEZE DRIVEN PCPN PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER  TROF AXIS LINGERING JUST EAST OF
THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE LOWER POPS/WARMER TEMPS BY THE LAT-
TER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL START FOR AUGUST COURTESY
OF THIS WEAK FRONT. BETWEEN THAT AND THE CLOUDS/PCPN...THESE
LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
END BEFORE REBOUNDING THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LA ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS
(SOME STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE AT TIMES). WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE (DEPENDENT ON POSITION OF MEANDERING BOUNDARY)
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN <3FT. A MORE PREVALENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME EARLY TO MID PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  92  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  91  73  92  74 /  30  10  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  89  79  89  78 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...33



000
FXUS64 KBRO 012356 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
656 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD SO WILL COVER IN SECTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG CONCERN IS THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM
BAND THAT IS EASING THROUGH AND INTO MOISTURE/CAPE/ETC. RICH
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY...AND LIKE TO HOLD
TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE RANCHLANDS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS. THEREAFTER...QUICK
MESOANALYSIS HAS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RICHER ENVIRONMENT
OF THE RANCHLANDS AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE RGV. HAVING
SEEN A NUMBER OF NORTHERLY MEAN STORM MOTION EVENTS
OVERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BOTTOM LINE? I CAN`T RULE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR KHRL AND KMFE. EVEN KBRO COULD GET INTO THE
ACTION...BUT LATER TIMING AND PROXIMITY TO MOST STABLE ENVIRONMENT
SAYS HOLD OFF...FOR NOW.

OBVIOUSLY...SHOULD THE ACTION KEEP CRANKING WELL INTO THE
RANCHLANDS BEFORE SUNSET...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ACTIVITY AT
KHRL/KMFE GOES UP AND WILL AMEND FOR ALL PARAMETERS AS NECESSARY.

AFTER THE STORMS OR WHATEVER`S LEFT FADES OUT...EXPECT RESIDUAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT FOR MVFR CEILINGS THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED...WHICH IS A TEMPO GROUP AROUND/JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

FOR SATURDAY...RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT
EVEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO ACTIVATE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM TOWARD THE
COAST...AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR KBRO...UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL ENOUGH TO HOLD MENTION TO VCTS...WITH THUNDER HEARD AND
CUMULONIMBI AROUND BUT NOT NECESSARILY A DIRECT STRIKE. NOT SO FOR
KHRL WHICH TRADITIONALLY TAKES A HIT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE SITUATION. KMFE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT SHOT BUT
A BIT LATER...FOR NOW BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. PROB30 GROUPS COVER FOR
NOW.

OTHERWISE...LOW END VFR SCATTERED...PERHAPS BROKEN IN A FEW
SPOTS...AND LIGHT WINDS COVER IT ON SATURDAY.
52/BSG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE
NIGHT. AS OF 19Z...CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EARLIER TODAY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SHIFTING WINDS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING A
PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST LIMITING ANY SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE
SUN... CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL WEAKENING
AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND WITH
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LEFT THE INHERITED 30
PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD PLAY INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. RAIN FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM
MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON
SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PATTERN ACROSS THE US
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BLOCKING
PATTERN FINALLY RELEASES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT NO
COMPLETELY SHUTTING IT DOWN. THE NEXT AGITATOR FOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE THE MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PULL ITS INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WWD LATE IN THE WEEK PULLING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FURTHER INLAND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING GREAT
BOATING WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52/51






000
FXUS64 KBRO 012356 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
656 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD SO WILL COVER IN SECTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG CONCERN IS THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM
BAND THAT IS EASING THROUGH AND INTO MOISTURE/CAPE/ETC. RICH
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY...AND LIKE TO HOLD
TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE RANCHLANDS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS. THEREAFTER...QUICK
MESOANALYSIS HAS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RICHER ENVIRONMENT
OF THE RANCHLANDS AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE RGV. HAVING
SEEN A NUMBER OF NORTHERLY MEAN STORM MOTION EVENTS
OVERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BOTTOM LINE? I CAN`T RULE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR KHRL AND KMFE. EVEN KBRO COULD GET INTO THE
ACTION...BUT LATER TIMING AND PROXIMITY TO MOST STABLE ENVIRONMENT
SAYS HOLD OFF...FOR NOW.

OBVIOUSLY...SHOULD THE ACTION KEEP CRANKING WELL INTO THE
RANCHLANDS BEFORE SUNSET...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ACTIVITY AT
KHRL/KMFE GOES UP AND WILL AMEND FOR ALL PARAMETERS AS NECESSARY.

AFTER THE STORMS OR WHATEVER`S LEFT FADES OUT...EXPECT RESIDUAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT FOR MVFR CEILINGS THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED...WHICH IS A TEMPO GROUP AROUND/JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

FOR SATURDAY...RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT
EVEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO ACTIVATE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM TOWARD THE
COAST...AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR KBRO...UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL ENOUGH TO HOLD MENTION TO VCTS...WITH THUNDER HEARD AND
CUMULONIMBI AROUND BUT NOT NECESSARILY A DIRECT STRIKE. NOT SO FOR
KHRL WHICH TRADITIONALLY TAKES A HIT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE SITUATION. KMFE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT SHOT BUT
A BIT LATER...FOR NOW BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. PROB30 GROUPS COVER FOR
NOW.

OTHERWISE...LOW END VFR SCATTERED...PERHAPS BROKEN IN A FEW
SPOTS...AND LIGHT WINDS COVER IT ON SATURDAY.
52/BSG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE
NIGHT. AS OF 19Z...CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EARLIER TODAY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SHIFTING WINDS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING A
PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST LIMITING ANY SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE
SUN... CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL WEAKENING
AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND WITH
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LEFT THE INHERITED 30
PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD PLAY INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. RAIN FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM
MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON
SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PATTERN ACROSS THE US
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BLOCKING
PATTERN FINALLY RELEASES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT NO
COMPLETELY SHUTTING IT DOWN. THE NEXT AGITATOR FOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE THE MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PULL ITS INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WWD LATE IN THE WEEK PULLING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FURTHER INLAND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING GREAT
BOATING WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52/51





000
FXUS64 KCRP 012353
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
653 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS
A RESULT OF BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. OUTFLOW MAY IMPACT
THE CRP TAF SITE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW/NNW WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS MORE LIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT LRD/ALI. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS REMARKS AND TEMPO THUNDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL
AMEND AS TRENDS DICTATE. BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE RETAINED IN THE FORECAST.
RENEWED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY AT LRD/ALI/CRP. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LESS THAN 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
CONTINUE TO PROG A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS NW-SE
ACRS THE SWRN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THESE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT
TO WHETHER WEAK DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WL ENTER THE CWA DRG THE
PERIOD AND DIFFER AS TO WHETHER SUBSIDENCE WL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. WL SIMPLY FOCUS ON SFC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MSTR CONVERGENCE AND HIGH/ABOVE
AVERAGE PWAT MAGNITUDES. ISOLD CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE
EXTREME NRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE E-W ALONG/NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY WL MOVE SLOWLY
SWD SATURDAY AND THUS EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO SHIFT
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SATURDAY...CONSISTENT WITH SREF QPF
PROBABILITY PATTERN DRG THE PERIOD. NAM SOUNDING MORE CONDUCIVE TO
LOCALLY-HEAVY RAINFALL SAT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN CWA. OWING TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...EXPECT LGT WIND DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT
MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SATURDAY TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 100F.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH AS
UPPER HIGH AND DEEP LOW BRING A NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW TOWARD SOUTH
TEXAS. PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN START TO
RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY (THAT IS BORDERLINE
MOISTURE) AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY THE CAP
BECOMES STRONGER AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE STAYS ABOUT THE SAME...WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AND WITH STRONGER CAP...FEEL IT BEST TO LEAVE RAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS IS STILL SHOWING
A TUTT LOW MOVING INTO MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY (WELL SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE)...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES FARTHER WEST INLAND. 00Z
ECMWF HAD THIS FEATURE...AND MOVED IT INLAND BUT NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE RIO GRANDE. 12Z ECMWF NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE NOW. THUS...AM
GOING TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY AND DITTO ON FRIDAY. AM
NOT SAYING THAT RAIN IS OUT OF THE QUESTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT FEEL ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION AND INCLUDE A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL...TEMPERATURE
FORECAST LOOKED REASONABLE AND DID MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP BY MID WEEK (HIGHS AND LOWS).
BY THURSDAY HEAT INDICES AOA 105F BUT AOB 110F WILL BE BACK OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. ON THE MARINE
SIDE...SHOULD SEE WINDS BELOW SCA (AND SCEC) THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  75  95  74  /  30  30  10  20  20
VICTORIA          74  93  75  95  73  /  30  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            79  96  78  99  80  /  30  30  20  10  10
ALICE             75  95  74  98  73  /  30  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  88  78  91  78  /  30  30  10  20  20
COTULLA           76  94  75  98  76  /  30  30  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  75  97  74  /  30  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  87  78  91  78  /  30  30  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 012353
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
653 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS
A RESULT OF BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. OUTFLOW MAY IMPACT
THE CRP TAF SITE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW/NNW WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS MORE LIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT LRD/ALI. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS REMARKS AND TEMPO THUNDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL
AMEND AS TRENDS DICTATE. BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE RETAINED IN THE FORECAST.
RENEWED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY AT LRD/ALI/CRP. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LESS THAN 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
CONTINUE TO PROG A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS NW-SE
ACRS THE SWRN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THESE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT
TO WHETHER WEAK DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WL ENTER THE CWA DRG THE
PERIOD AND DIFFER AS TO WHETHER SUBSIDENCE WL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. WL SIMPLY FOCUS ON SFC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MSTR CONVERGENCE AND HIGH/ABOVE
AVERAGE PWAT MAGNITUDES. ISOLD CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE
EXTREME NRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE E-W ALONG/NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY WL MOVE SLOWLY
SWD SATURDAY AND THUS EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO SHIFT
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SATURDAY...CONSISTENT WITH SREF QPF
PROBABILITY PATTERN DRG THE PERIOD. NAM SOUNDING MORE CONDUCIVE TO
LOCALLY-HEAVY RAINFALL SAT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN CWA. OWING TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...EXPECT LGT WIND DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT
MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SATURDAY TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 100F.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH AS
UPPER HIGH AND DEEP LOW BRING A NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW TOWARD SOUTH
TEXAS. PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN START TO
RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY (THAT IS BORDERLINE
MOISTURE) AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY THE CAP
BECOMES STRONGER AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE STAYS ABOUT THE SAME...WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AND WITH STRONGER CAP...FEEL IT BEST TO LEAVE RAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS IS STILL SHOWING
A TUTT LOW MOVING INTO MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY (WELL SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE)...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES FARTHER WEST INLAND. 00Z
ECMWF HAD THIS FEATURE...AND MOVED IT INLAND BUT NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE RIO GRANDE. 12Z ECMWF NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE NOW. THUS...AM
GOING TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY AND DITTO ON FRIDAY. AM
NOT SAYING THAT RAIN IS OUT OF THE QUESTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT FEEL ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION AND INCLUDE A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL...TEMPERATURE
FORECAST LOOKED REASONABLE AND DID MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP BY MID WEEK (HIGHS AND LOWS).
BY THURSDAY HEAT INDICES AOA 105F BUT AOB 110F WILL BE BACK OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. ON THE MARINE
SIDE...SHOULD SEE WINDS BELOW SCA (AND SCEC) THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  75  95  74  /  30  30  10  20  20
VICTORIA          74  93  75  95  73  /  30  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            79  96  78  99  80  /  30  30  20  10  10
ALICE             75  95  74  98  73  /  30  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  88  78  91  78  /  30  30  10  20  20
COTULLA           76  94  75  98  76  /  30  30  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  75  97  74  /  30  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  87  78  91  78  /  30  30  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KEWX 012348
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
SCATTERED AREAS OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL HOLD VFR SKIES IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR FOR THE TAF SITES. AFTER A FEW
HOURS OF MORNING MVFR CIGS ALONG I-35 VFR SKIES SHOULD HOLD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIODS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND GULF COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND PRODUCE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SATURDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN HALF OF CONUS
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. AT THE
SURFACE...REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL LINGER AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND FLATTENING
THINGS OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE
FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  93  72  92  73 /  -   10  -   10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  92  69  92  70 /  -   10  -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  94  70  94  71 /  -   10  -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  70  90  71 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  92  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  91  71  91  71 /  -   -   -   10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  94  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  93  70  92  71 /  -   10  -   10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  91  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  94  73  94  73 /  10  10  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 012348
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
SCATTERED AREAS OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL HOLD VFR SKIES IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR FOR THE TAF SITES. AFTER A FEW
HOURS OF MORNING MVFR CIGS ALONG I-35 VFR SKIES SHOULD HOLD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIODS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND GULF COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND PRODUCE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SATURDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN HALF OF CONUS
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. AT THE
SURFACE...REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL LINGER AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND FLATTENING
THINGS OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE
FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  93  72  92  73 /  -   10  -   10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  92  69  92  70 /  -   10  -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  94  70  94  71 /  -   10  -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  70  90  71 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  92  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  91  71  91  71 /  -   -   -   10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  94  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  93  70  92  71 /  -   10  -   10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  91  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  94  73  94  73 /  10  10  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KFWD 012345 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT ALONG
AND WEST OF I-35 WHERE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING IN FOR
THE TIME BEING. WE ONLY EXPECT THIS TO BE TEMPORARY AS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 75-80 PERCENT RH CONTINUING BELOW THE FRONTAL
INVERSION THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.

WITH COOLING TONIGHT BELOW THE INVERSION...THE PLAN IS TO REINTRODUCE
LOW VFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. RICHER BOUNDARY MOISTURE SHOULD BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF THE AREA... INCLUDING WACO WHERE A BRIEF
TEMPO PERIOD FOR MVFR CIGS ABOVE 020 WILL BE ADVERTISED FROM
SUNRISE TO MID MORNING. DFW METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE DEEPER
MIXING AND REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THIS
EVENING.

NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS AT 4-7 KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS ON SATURDAY.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING DECEASING
CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONALLY HOT AND RAIN FREE WEATHER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SOME DEVIATIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS SOLUTIONS BREAKS THE
UPPER RIDGE DOWN AND MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
KEEP THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED HOT AND
RAIN-FREE WEATHER.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  90  73  93  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              69  91  71  93  71 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             66  86  68  89  68 /   5  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            67  89  68  93  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  89  68  90  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            70  90  74  91  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  87  71  92  70 /   5  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  88  71  92  71 /  10  10   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  92  70  93  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  91  68  92  67 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 012345 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT ALONG
AND WEST OF I-35 WHERE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING IN FOR
THE TIME BEING. WE ONLY EXPECT THIS TO BE TEMPORARY AS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 75-80 PERCENT RH CONTINUING BELOW THE FRONTAL
INVERSION THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.

WITH COOLING TONIGHT BELOW THE INVERSION...THE PLAN IS TO REINTRODUCE
LOW VFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. RICHER BOUNDARY MOISTURE SHOULD BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF THE AREA... INCLUDING WACO WHERE A BRIEF
TEMPO PERIOD FOR MVFR CIGS ABOVE 020 WILL BE ADVERTISED FROM
SUNRISE TO MID MORNING. DFW METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE DEEPER
MIXING AND REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THIS
EVENING.

NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS AT 4-7 KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS ON SATURDAY.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING DECEASING
CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONALLY HOT AND RAIN FREE WEATHER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SOME DEVIATIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS SOLUTIONS BREAKS THE
UPPER RIDGE DOWN AND MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
KEEP THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED HOT AND
RAIN-FREE WEATHER.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  90  73  93  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              69  91  71  93  71 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             66  86  68  89  68 /   5  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            67  89  68  93  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  89  68  90  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            70  90  74  91  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  87  71  92  70 /   5  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  88  71  92  71 /  10  10   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  92  70  93  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  91  68  92  67 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 012345 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT ALONG
AND WEST OF I-35 WHERE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING IN FOR
THE TIME BEING. WE ONLY EXPECT THIS TO BE TEMPORARY AS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 75-80 PERCENT RH CONTINUING BELOW THE FRONTAL
INVERSION THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.

WITH COOLING TONIGHT BELOW THE INVERSION...THE PLAN IS TO REINTRODUCE
LOW VFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. RICHER BOUNDARY MOISTURE SHOULD BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF THE AREA... INCLUDING WACO WHERE A BRIEF
TEMPO PERIOD FOR MVFR CIGS ABOVE 020 WILL BE ADVERTISED FROM
SUNRISE TO MID MORNING. DFW METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE DEEPER
MIXING AND REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THIS
EVENING.

NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS AT 4-7 KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS ON SATURDAY.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING DECEASING
CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONALLY HOT AND RAIN FREE WEATHER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SOME DEVIATIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS SOLUTIONS BREAKS THE
UPPER RIDGE DOWN AND MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
KEEP THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED HOT AND
RAIN-FREE WEATHER.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  90  73  93  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              69  91  71  93  71 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             66  86  68  89  68 /   5  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            67  89  68  93  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  89  68  90  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            70  90  74  91  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  87  71  92  70 /   5  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  88  71  92  71 /  10  10   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  92  70  93  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  91  68  92  67 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 012345 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT ALONG
AND WEST OF I-35 WHERE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING IN FOR
THE TIME BEING. WE ONLY EXPECT THIS TO BE TEMPORARY AS MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE 75-80 PERCENT RH CONTINUING BELOW THE FRONTAL
INVERSION THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.

WITH COOLING TONIGHT BELOW THE INVERSION...THE PLAN IS TO REINTRODUCE
LOW VFR CIGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. RICHER BOUNDARY MOISTURE SHOULD BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF THE AREA... INCLUDING WACO WHERE A BRIEF
TEMPO PERIOD FOR MVFR CIGS ABOVE 020 WILL BE ADVERTISED FROM
SUNRISE TO MID MORNING. DFW METRO AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE DEEPER
MIXING AND REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THIS
EVENING.

NORTH OR NORTHEAST WINDS AT 4-7 KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...
INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS ON SATURDAY.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING DECEASING
CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONALLY HOT AND RAIN FREE WEATHER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SOME DEVIATIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS SOLUTIONS BREAKS THE
UPPER RIDGE DOWN AND MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
KEEP THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED HOT AND
RAIN-FREE WEATHER.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  90  73  93  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              69  91  71  93  71 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             66  86  68  89  68 /   5  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            67  89  68  93  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  89  68  90  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            70  90  74  91  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  87  71  92  70 /   5  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  88  71  92  71 /  10  10   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  92  70  93  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  91  68  92  67 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/79






000
FXUS64 KSJT 012335
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
635 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions to persist over the next 24 hours. Some
mid-level scattered to broken ceilings will be possible through
sunrise, but should clear out during the morning. Winds look to
remain relatively light.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Weak northwest flow aloft will continue across the Southern Plains
into Saturday with high pressure aloft centered south and west of
the area. The cold front that moved through the area yesterday will
remain stationary across deep south Texas and northern Mexico
through Saturday. We`ll see light east to northeast winds continue
across the area the next 24 hours, resulting in a continuation of
below normal temperatures. Low temperatures tonight will generally
be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Saturday around 90
degrees areawide.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
north of the stalled front tonight and early Saturday. Most of this
activity will remain south and west of the area but a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms may creep into Crockett county after
midnight into Saturday morning. Will keep slight POPs going across
this into Saturday.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

A steady warm up is forecast through next week. An upper level ridge
will expand and dominate the weather for West Central Texas from
Sunday through much of next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, while overnight lows drop into the mid
to upper 60s. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast from the
middle to latter part of the work week, with highs back into the mid
to upper 90s, with overnight lows in the lower 70s. The influence of
the upper level ridge should keep rain chances near zero. Models are
less aggressive in a possible cold front moving into West Central
Texas late next week. The upper level trough across the Northern
Plains is forecast to be weaker than originally anticipated, keeping
the cold front to the north of the area. For now, PoPs were left out
of the forecast on days 6 and 7, as the upper level ridge continues
to dominate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  90  67  90  68 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  66  92  65  93  68 /  10  10   5   5   5
Junction  68  92  66  93  68 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

Reimer






000
FXUS64 KSJT 012335
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
635 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions to persist over the next 24 hours. Some
mid-level scattered to broken ceilings will be possible through
sunrise, but should clear out during the morning. Winds look to
remain relatively light.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Weak northwest flow aloft will continue across the Southern Plains
into Saturday with high pressure aloft centered south and west of
the area. The cold front that moved through the area yesterday will
remain stationary across deep south Texas and northern Mexico
through Saturday. We`ll see light east to northeast winds continue
across the area the next 24 hours, resulting in a continuation of
below normal temperatures. Low temperatures tonight will generally
be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Saturday around 90
degrees areawide.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
north of the stalled front tonight and early Saturday. Most of this
activity will remain south and west of the area but a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms may creep into Crockett county after
midnight into Saturday morning. Will keep slight POPs going across
this into Saturday.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

A steady warm up is forecast through next week. An upper level ridge
will expand and dominate the weather for West Central Texas from
Sunday through much of next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, while overnight lows drop into the mid
to upper 60s. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast from the
middle to latter part of the work week, with highs back into the mid
to upper 90s, with overnight lows in the lower 70s. The influence of
the upper level ridge should keep rain chances near zero. Models are
less aggressive in a possible cold front moving into West Central
Texas late next week. The upper level trough across the Northern
Plains is forecast to be weaker than originally anticipated, keeping
the cold front to the north of the area. For now, PoPs were left out
of the forecast on days 6 and 7, as the upper level ridge continues
to dominate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  90  67  90  68 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  66  92  65  93  68 /  10  10   5   5   5
Junction  68  92  66  93  68 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$

Reimer







000
FXUS64 KAMA 012328 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
628 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT /UNDER 10 KTS/ THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND THE DIAL IN PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE
TROUGH. CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NM IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE
TERMINALS.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE CHANGING FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST MODELS NOW HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. TIMING AND LOCATION OF QPF DIFFERS
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS FOR UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BRING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON AND OFF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL AFTER TUESDAY...AS
THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTION...AND BECAUSE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
GENERATES SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COME IN COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 012328 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
628 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT /UNDER 10 KTS/ THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND THE DIAL IN PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE
TROUGH. CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NM IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE
TERMINALS.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE CHANGING FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST MODELS NOW HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. TIMING AND LOCATION OF QPF DIFFERS
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS FOR UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BRING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON AND OFF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL AFTER TUESDAY...AS
THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTION...AND BECAUSE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
GENERATES SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COME IN COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMAF 012321
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have light easterly winds at
all terminals this evening with some light showers south of CNM
and in/near the Davis Mountains. Could see an increase in
SHRA/TSRA coverage tonight but best chances will be confined to
the far west, possibly affecting CNM, PEQ and FST at some point.
Not expecting any vis restrictions at this time therefore will not
include mention of SHRA in the TAF. However, will need to amend
if TSRA develops. Otherwise, light easterly winds will continue
through Saturday with best TSRA chances remaining to the west of
most terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An elongated and fractured upper ridge extending from SoCal to the
Mexican states of Chihuahua/Coahuila is aiding monsoonal moisture in
staying over Arizona and New Mexico, and over the western half or so
of the forecast area this afternoon.  A shortwave trough translating
slowly east/southeastward between the ua ridge and an ua trough over
the eastern ConUS is the reason for the fracture, and also playing a
hand in fairly widespread convection we`ve seen last night and so
far today.  There also appears to be at least two Mesoscale
Convective Vortices (MCVs), from earlier convection, spinning near
the Guadalupe Mountains, and the other near El Paso.  A surface
ridge over eastern portions of the forecast area is fostering a more
stable atmosphere, although showers have been able to move into the
central Permian Basin early this afternoon.

Cloud cover over the higher terrain of West Texas is beginning to
thin this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms from earlier are
moving into the PB and west central Texas.  This will allow the
atmosphere to destabilize before nightfall, and along with
persistent upslope flow and close proximity to the mentioned ua
features, result in additional shower and thunderstorm development.
Will continue to carry the highest PoPs over these areas tonight and
Saturday.  Precipitable Water is fairly high over the western third
of the forecast area, around 1.5 inches, while the soil is wet, and
flash flood guidance low.  The steering flow around/under the ua
ridge is weak so slow moving thunderstorms, some strong, could drop
1-2 inches of rain per hour.  Considering all this, will issue a
Flash Flood Watch (FFA) for locations along and west of a Guadalupe
Mountains, to Alpine to Presidio line tonight and Saturday.  Also
have concerns about Eddy County in southeast New Mexico where
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches have occurred in the last couple
of days.  It doesn`t appear the atmosphere will destabilize there
quite as much through the rest of the day, so have not included them
in the FFA.  Subsequent shifts will have to monitor and adjust
accordingly.  There could also be additional rises along the Rio
Grande River tonight and Saturday due to runoff from heavy rainfall
over the forecast area, in addition to the potential for heavy rain
over eastern Chihuahua and more water flowing into the Rio Grande
from the Rio Conchos.

Saturday night and thereafter, the eastern ConUS ua trough will
translate eastward, allowing the ua ridge to expand eastward back
over the region.  We should see a gradual decrease in monsoonal
moisture over the region as a result, more subsidence, lower rain
chances and temperatures warming back to normal levels as early as
Tuesday.  There still could be heavy rain concerns along the western
fringe of the forecast area Saturday night, if not Sunday.  Later
shifts will have to monitor the progress of the ua features to see
whether an extension of the FFA is needed.  Rain chances may be few
and far between from Sunday until Wednesday, but there are
indications another ua trough will flatten the ridge mid next week
and allow for more rain chances.  For now, will just keep a slight
chance of thunderstorms mainly over the western half of the forecast
area for mid to late next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Marfa Plateau...Presidio Valley...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

27





000
FXUS64 KMAF 012321
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have light easterly winds at
all terminals this evening with some light showers south of CNM
and in/near the Davis Mountains. Could see an increase in
SHRA/TSRA coverage tonight but best chances will be confined to
the far west, possibly affecting CNM, PEQ and FST at some point.
Not expecting any vis restrictions at this time therefore will not
include mention of SHRA in the TAF. However, will need to amend
if TSRA develops. Otherwise, light easterly winds will continue
through Saturday with best TSRA chances remaining to the west of
most terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An elongated and fractured upper ridge extending from SoCal to the
Mexican states of Chihuahua/Coahuila is aiding monsoonal moisture in
staying over Arizona and New Mexico, and over the western half or so
of the forecast area this afternoon.  A shortwave trough translating
slowly east/southeastward between the ua ridge and an ua trough over
the eastern ConUS is the reason for the fracture, and also playing a
hand in fairly widespread convection we`ve seen last night and so
far today.  There also appears to be at least two Mesoscale
Convective Vortices (MCVs), from earlier convection, spinning near
the Guadalupe Mountains, and the other near El Paso.  A surface
ridge over eastern portions of the forecast area is fostering a more
stable atmosphere, although showers have been able to move into the
central Permian Basin early this afternoon.

Cloud cover over the higher terrain of West Texas is beginning to
thin this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms from earlier are
moving into the PB and west central Texas.  This will allow the
atmosphere to destabilize before nightfall, and along with
persistent upslope flow and close proximity to the mentioned ua
features, result in additional shower and thunderstorm development.
Will continue to carry the highest PoPs over these areas tonight and
Saturday.  Precipitable Water is fairly high over the western third
of the forecast area, around 1.5 inches, while the soil is wet, and
flash flood guidance low.  The steering flow around/under the ua
ridge is weak so slow moving thunderstorms, some strong, could drop
1-2 inches of rain per hour.  Considering all this, will issue a
Flash Flood Watch (FFA) for locations along and west of a Guadalupe
Mountains, to Alpine to Presidio line tonight and Saturday.  Also
have concerns about Eddy County in southeast New Mexico where
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches have occurred in the last couple
of days.  It doesn`t appear the atmosphere will destabilize there
quite as much through the rest of the day, so have not included them
in the FFA.  Subsequent shifts will have to monitor and adjust
accordingly.  There could also be additional rises along the Rio
Grande River tonight and Saturday due to runoff from heavy rainfall
over the forecast area, in addition to the potential for heavy rain
over eastern Chihuahua and more water flowing into the Rio Grande
from the Rio Conchos.

Saturday night and thereafter, the eastern ConUS ua trough will
translate eastward, allowing the ua ridge to expand eastward back
over the region.  We should see a gradual decrease in monsoonal
moisture over the region as a result, more subsidence, lower rain
chances and temperatures warming back to normal levels as early as
Tuesday.  There still could be heavy rain concerns along the western
fringe of the forecast area Saturday night, if not Sunday.  Later
shifts will have to monitor the progress of the ua features to see
whether an extension of the FFA is needed.  Rain chances may be few
and far between from Sunday until Wednesday, but there are
indications another ua trough will flatten the ridge mid next week
and allow for more rain chances.  For now, will just keep a slight
chance of thunderstorms mainly over the western half of the forecast
area for mid to late next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Marfa Plateau...Presidio Valley...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KHGX 012058
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
358 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY AOA AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM PALACIOS TO
SARGENT TO ABOUT 20NM SOUTH OF GLS...WITH THE BULK OF THE RE-
DEVELOPING PCPN ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE LINE. OUTFLOWS/SEA-
BREEZE ALSO ABOUNDING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS HOLDING OVER
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SO FAR. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF THE
HIGHER POPS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVE/
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT LOWER THE OVERALL NUMBERS.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
TOMORROW. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY ACROSS MOST OF SE TX...BUT AM A BIT LOATHE TO DROP
POPS COMPLETELY FOR COASTAL ZONES/WATERS FOR TOMORROW (DURING
THE DAY). THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED MOVES BACK ONSHORE TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO SUN AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF INCREASING POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. POPS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A GENERALLY DAY-
TIME HEATING/SEABREEZE DRIVEN PCPN PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER  TROF AXIS LINGERING JUST EAST OF
THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE LOWER POPS/WARMER TEMPS BY THE LAT-
TER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL START FOR AUGUST COURTESY
OF THIS WEAK FRONT. BETWEEN THAT AND THE CLOUDS/PCPN...THESE
LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
END BEFORE REBOUNDING THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 41

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LA ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS
(SOME STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE AT TIMES). WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE (DEPENDENT ON POSITION OF MEANDERING BOUNDARY)
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN <3FT. A MORE PREVALENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME EARLY TO MID PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  92  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  91  73  92  74 /  30  10  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  89  79  89  78 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 012058
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
358 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY AOA AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM PALACIOS TO
SARGENT TO ABOUT 20NM SOUTH OF GLS...WITH THE BULK OF THE RE-
DEVELOPING PCPN ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE LINE. OUTFLOWS/SEA-
BREEZE ALSO ABOUNDING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS HOLDING OVER
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SO FAR. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF THE
HIGHER POPS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVE/
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT LOWER THE OVERALL NUMBERS.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
TOMORROW. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY ACROSS MOST OF SE TX...BUT AM A BIT LOATHE TO DROP
POPS COMPLETELY FOR COASTAL ZONES/WATERS FOR TOMORROW (DURING
THE DAY). THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED MOVES BACK ONSHORE TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO SUN AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF INCREASING POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. POPS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A GENERALLY DAY-
TIME HEATING/SEABREEZE DRIVEN PCPN PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER  TROF AXIS LINGERING JUST EAST OF
THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE LOWER POPS/WARMER TEMPS BY THE LAT-
TER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL START FOR AUGUST COURTESY
OF THIS WEAK FRONT. BETWEEN THAT AND THE CLOUDS/PCPN...THESE
LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
END BEFORE REBOUNDING THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 41

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LA ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS
(SOME STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE AT TIMES). WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE (DEPENDENT ON POSITION OF MEANDERING BOUNDARY)
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN <3FT. A MORE PREVALENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME EARLY TO MID PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  92  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  91  73  92  74 /  30  10  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  89  79  89  78 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KAMA 012049
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE CHANGING FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST MODELS NOW HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. TIMING AND LOCATION OF QPF DIFFERS
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS FOR UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BRING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON AND OFF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL AFTER TUESDAY...AS
THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTION...AND BECAUSE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
GENERATES SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COME IN COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 012049
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE CHANGING FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST MODELS NOW HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. TIMING AND LOCATION OF QPF DIFFERS
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS FOR UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BRING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON AND OFF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL AFTER TUESDAY...AS
THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTION...AND BECAUSE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
GENERATES SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COME IN COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/06






000
FXUS64 KLUB 012049
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE SET TO TRACK BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL AIR HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX
INTO THE 40S OVER SELECT LOCATIONS WITH MORE LIKELY ON THE WAY BY
THE END OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK UNDERNEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK WITH LOW-MID 80S COMMON EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT WHERE MORE INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING. MOSTLY EVERYONE
SHOULD ULTIMATELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDERNEATH CONTINUED MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S AREAWIDE. ALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

UPPER FLOW WILL VEER AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ATTEMPT TO SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REMAIN WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT DESPITE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A
BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS UPPER RIDGE EDGES
EAST OVER WTX. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SHIFTING WESTWARD.
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER NM EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE
LINE. BY MIDWEEK..A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
WILL BEAT DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP...I.E. A SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH
BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND HOPEFULLY A DEEPER MOISTURE
FEED WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION STARTING ACROSS THE NW WED AND MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG BY
MIDWEEK BUT THE TREND SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  84  59  83  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  85  59  85  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  85  60  85  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  85  63  85  62 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  87  64  86  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  87  63  86  63 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    64  87  64  86  64 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     66  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  88  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     65  91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 012049
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE SET TO TRACK BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL AIR HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX
INTO THE 40S OVER SELECT LOCATIONS WITH MORE LIKELY ON THE WAY BY
THE END OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK UNDERNEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK WITH LOW-MID 80S COMMON EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT WHERE MORE INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING. MOSTLY EVERYONE
SHOULD ULTIMATELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDERNEATH CONTINUED MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S AREAWIDE. ALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

UPPER FLOW WILL VEER AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ATTEMPT TO SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REMAIN WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT DESPITE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A
BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS UPPER RIDGE EDGES
EAST OVER WTX. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SHIFTING WESTWARD.
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER NM EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE
LINE. BY MIDWEEK..A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
WILL BEAT DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP...I.E. A SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH
BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND HOPEFULLY A DEEPER MOISTURE
FEED WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION STARTING ACROSS THE NW WED AND MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG BY
MIDWEEK BUT THE TREND SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  84  59  83  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  85  59  85  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  85  60  85  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  85  63  85  62 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  87  64  86  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  87  63  86  63 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    64  87  64  86  64 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     66  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  88  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     65  91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33






000
FXUS64 KAMA 012049
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE CHANGING FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST MODELS NOW HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. TIMING AND LOCATION OF QPF DIFFERS
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS FOR UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BRING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON AND OFF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL AFTER TUESDAY...AS
THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTION...AND BECAUSE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
GENERATES SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COME IN COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 012049
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE CHANGING FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST MODELS NOW HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. TIMING AND LOCATION OF QPF DIFFERS
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS FOR UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BRING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON AND OFF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL AFTER TUESDAY...AS
THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTION...AND BECAUSE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
GENERATES SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COME IN COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/06






000
FXUS64 KLUB 012049
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE SET TO TRACK BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL AIR HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX
INTO THE 40S OVER SELECT LOCATIONS WITH MORE LIKELY ON THE WAY BY
THE END OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK UNDERNEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK WITH LOW-MID 80S COMMON EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT WHERE MORE INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING. MOSTLY EVERYONE
SHOULD ULTIMATELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDERNEATH CONTINUED MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S AREAWIDE. ALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

UPPER FLOW WILL VEER AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ATTEMPT TO SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REMAIN WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT DESPITE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A
BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS UPPER RIDGE EDGES
EAST OVER WTX. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SHIFTING WESTWARD.
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER NM EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE
LINE. BY MIDWEEK..A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
WILL BEAT DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP...I.E. A SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH
BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND HOPEFULLY A DEEPER MOISTURE
FEED WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION STARTING ACROSS THE NW WED AND MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG BY
MIDWEEK BUT THE TREND SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  84  59  83  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  85  59  85  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  85  60  85  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  85  63  85  62 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  87  64  86  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  87  63  86  63 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    64  87  64  86  64 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     66  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  88  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     65  91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 012049
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE SET TO TRACK BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL AIR HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX
INTO THE 40S OVER SELECT LOCATIONS WITH MORE LIKELY ON THE WAY BY
THE END OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK UNDERNEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK WITH LOW-MID 80S COMMON EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT WHERE MORE INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING. MOSTLY EVERYONE
SHOULD ULTIMATELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDERNEATH CONTINUED MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S AREAWIDE. ALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

UPPER FLOW WILL VEER AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ATTEMPT TO SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REMAIN WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT DESPITE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A
BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS UPPER RIDGE EDGES
EAST OVER WTX. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SHIFTING WESTWARD.
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER NM EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE
LINE. BY MIDWEEK..A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
WILL BEAT DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP...I.E. A SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH
BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND HOPEFULLY A DEEPER MOISTURE
FEED WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION STARTING ACROSS THE NW WED AND MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG BY
MIDWEEK BUT THE TREND SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  84  59  83  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  85  59  85  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  85  60  85  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  85  63  85  62 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  87  64  86  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  87  63  86  63 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    64  87  64  86  64 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     66  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  88  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     65  91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33






000
FXUS64 KAMA 012049
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE CHANGING FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST MODELS NOW HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. TIMING AND LOCATION OF QPF DIFFERS
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS FOR UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BRING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON AND OFF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL AFTER TUESDAY...AS
THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTION...AND BECAUSE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
GENERATES SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COME IN COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 012049
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE CHANGING FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST MODELS NOW HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. TIMING AND LOCATION OF QPF DIFFERS
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS FOR UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BRING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON AND OFF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL AFTER TUESDAY...AS
THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTION...AND BECAUSE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
GENERATES SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COME IN COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/06






000
FXUS64 KLUB 012049
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE SET TO TRACK BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL AIR HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX
INTO THE 40S OVER SELECT LOCATIONS WITH MORE LIKELY ON THE WAY BY
THE END OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK UNDERNEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK WITH LOW-MID 80S COMMON EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT WHERE MORE INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING. MOSTLY EVERYONE
SHOULD ULTIMATELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDERNEATH CONTINUED MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S AREAWIDE. ALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

UPPER FLOW WILL VEER AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ATTEMPT TO SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REMAIN WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT DESPITE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A
BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS UPPER RIDGE EDGES
EAST OVER WTX. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SHIFTING WESTWARD.
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER NM EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE
LINE. BY MIDWEEK..A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
WILL BEAT DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP...I.E. A SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH
BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND HOPEFULLY A DEEPER MOISTURE
FEED WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION STARTING ACROSS THE NW WED AND MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG BY
MIDWEEK BUT THE TREND SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  84  59  83  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  85  59  85  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  85  60  85  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  85  63  85  62 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  87  64  86  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  87  63  86  63 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    64  87  64  86  64 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     66  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  88  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     65  91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 012049
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE SET TO TRACK BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL AIR HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX
INTO THE 40S OVER SELECT LOCATIONS WITH MORE LIKELY ON THE WAY BY
THE END OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK UNDERNEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK WITH LOW-MID 80S COMMON EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT WHERE MORE INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING. MOSTLY EVERYONE
SHOULD ULTIMATELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDERNEATH CONTINUED MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S AREAWIDE. ALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

UPPER FLOW WILL VEER AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ATTEMPT TO SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REMAIN WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT DESPITE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A
BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS UPPER RIDGE EDGES
EAST OVER WTX. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SHIFTING WESTWARD.
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER NM EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE
LINE. BY MIDWEEK..A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
WILL BEAT DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP...I.E. A SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH
BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND HOPEFULLY A DEEPER MOISTURE
FEED WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION STARTING ACROSS THE NW WED AND MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG BY
MIDWEEK BUT THE TREND SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  84  59  83  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  85  59  85  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  85  60  85  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  85  63  85  62 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  87  64  86  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  87  63  86  63 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    64  87  64  86  64 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     66  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  88  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     65  91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33






000
FXUS64 KAMA 012049
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE CHANGING FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST MODELS NOW HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. TIMING AND LOCATION OF QPF DIFFERS
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS FOR UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BRING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON AND OFF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL AFTER TUESDAY...AS
THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTION...AND BECAUSE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
GENERATES SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COME IN COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 012049
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE CHANGING FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST MODELS NOW HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOW...IT
APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. TIMING AND LOCATION OF QPF DIFFERS
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...BUT OVERALL IDEA IS FOR UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BRING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE PANHANDLES ON AND OFF NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN USUAL AFTER TUESDAY...AS
THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTION...AND BECAUSE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. IF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
GENERATES SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO COME IN COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/06






000
FXUS64 KLUB 012049
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE SET TO TRACK BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL AIR HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX
INTO THE 40S OVER SELECT LOCATIONS WITH MORE LIKELY ON THE WAY BY
THE END OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK UNDERNEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK WITH LOW-MID 80S COMMON EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT WHERE MORE INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING. MOSTLY EVERYONE
SHOULD ULTIMATELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDERNEATH CONTINUED MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S AREAWIDE. ALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

UPPER FLOW WILL VEER AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ATTEMPT TO SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REMAIN WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT DESPITE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A
BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS UPPER RIDGE EDGES
EAST OVER WTX. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SHIFTING WESTWARD.
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER NM EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE
LINE. BY MIDWEEK..A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
WILL BEAT DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP...I.E. A SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH
BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND HOPEFULLY A DEEPER MOISTURE
FEED WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION STARTING ACROSS THE NW WED AND MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG BY
MIDWEEK BUT THE TREND SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  84  59  83  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  85  59  85  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  85  60  85  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  85  63  85  62 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  87  64  86  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  87  63  86  63 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    64  87  64  86  64 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     66  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  88  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     65  91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 012049
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MID-HIGH CLOUD SHIELD IN PLACE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
RIDGE SET TO TRACK BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY PUNCH OF LOW LEVEL AIR HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX
INTO THE 40S OVER SELECT LOCATIONS WITH MORE LIKELY ON THE WAY BY
THE END OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK UNDERNEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD DECK WITH LOW-MID 80S COMMON EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT WHERE MORE INSOLATION WAS OCCURRING. MOSTLY EVERYONE
SHOULD ULTIMATELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT UNDERNEATH CONTINUED MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S AREAWIDE. ALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

UPPER FLOW WILL VEER AS HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL ATTEMPT TO SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REMAIN WEST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT DESPITE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE A
BIT TRICKY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AS UPPER RIDGE EDGES
EAST OVER WTX. TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WHILE
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE SHIFTING WESTWARD.
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BE VERY FAVORABLE TO BRING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER NM EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RENEGADE SHOWER DRIFTING ACROSS THE STATE
LINE. BY MIDWEEK..A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST
WILL BEAT DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP...I.E. A SURFACE TROUGH AND STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT TO OUR NORTH
BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND HOPEFULLY A DEEPER MOISTURE
FEED WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION STARTING ACROSS THE NW WED AND MOST OF THE CWA
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG BY
MIDWEEK BUT THE TREND SHOULD FLATTEN OUT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  84  59  83  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  85  59  85  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  85  60  85  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  85  63  85  62 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  87  64  86  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  87  63  86  63 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    64  87  64  86  64 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     66  90  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          63  88  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     65  91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33






000
FXUS64 KSJT 012040
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
340 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Weak northwest flow aloft will continue across the Southern Plains
into Saturday with high pressure aloft centered south and west of
the area. The cold front that moved through the area yesterday will
remain stationary across deep south Texas and northern Mexico
through Saturday. We`ll see light east to northeast winds continue
across the area the next 24 hours, resulting in a continuation of
below normal temperatures. Low temperatures tonight will generally
be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Saturday around 90
degrees areawide.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
north of the stalled front tonight and early Saturday. Most of this
activity will remain south and west of the area but a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms may creep into Crockett county after
midnight into Saturday morning. Will keep slight POPs going across
this into Saturday.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

A steady warm up is forecast through next week. An upper level ridge
will expand and dominate the weather for West Central Texas from
Sunday through much of next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, while overnight lows drop into the mid
to upper 60s. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast from the
middle to latter part of the work week, with highs back into the mid
to upper 90s, with overnight lows in the lower 70s. The influence of
the upper level ridge should keep rain chances near zero. Models are
less aggressive in a possible cold front moving into West Central
Texas late next week. The upper level trough across the Northern
Plains is forecast to be weaker than originally anticipated, keeping
the cold front to the north of the area. For now, PoPs were left out
of the forecast on days 6 and 7, as the upper level ridge continues
to dominate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  90  67  90  68 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  66  92  65  93  68 /  10  10   5   5   5
Junction  68  92  66  93  68 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JW/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 012040
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
340 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Weak northwest flow aloft will continue across the Southern Plains
into Saturday with high pressure aloft centered south and west of
the area. The cold front that moved through the area yesterday will
remain stationary across deep south Texas and northern Mexico
through Saturday. We`ll see light east to northeast winds continue
across the area the next 24 hours, resulting in a continuation of
below normal temperatures. Low temperatures tonight will generally
be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Saturday around 90
degrees areawide.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
north of the stalled front tonight and early Saturday. Most of this
activity will remain south and west of the area but a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms may creep into Crockett county after
midnight into Saturday morning. Will keep slight POPs going across
this into Saturday.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

A steady warm up is forecast through next week. An upper level ridge
will expand and dominate the weather for West Central Texas from
Sunday through much of next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, while overnight lows drop into the mid
to upper 60s. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast from the
middle to latter part of the work week, with highs back into the mid
to upper 90s, with overnight lows in the lower 70s. The influence of
the upper level ridge should keep rain chances near zero. Models are
less aggressive in a possible cold front moving into West Central
Texas late next week. The upper level trough across the Northern
Plains is forecast to be weaker than originally anticipated, keeping
the cold front to the north of the area. For now, PoPs were left out
of the forecast on days 6 and 7, as the upper level ridge continues
to dominate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  90  67  90  68 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  66  92  65  93  68 /  10  10   5   5   5
Junction  68  92  66  93  68 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JW/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 012040
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
340 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Weak northwest flow aloft will continue across the Southern Plains
into Saturday with high pressure aloft centered south and west of
the area. The cold front that moved through the area yesterday will
remain stationary across deep south Texas and northern Mexico
through Saturday. We`ll see light east to northeast winds continue
across the area the next 24 hours, resulting in a continuation of
below normal temperatures. Low temperatures tonight will generally
be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Saturday around 90
degrees areawide.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
north of the stalled front tonight and early Saturday. Most of this
activity will remain south and west of the area but a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms may creep into Crockett county after
midnight into Saturday morning. Will keep slight POPs going across
this into Saturday.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

A steady warm up is forecast through next week. An upper level ridge
will expand and dominate the weather for West Central Texas from
Sunday through much of next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, while overnight lows drop into the mid
to upper 60s. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast from the
middle to latter part of the work week, with highs back into the mid
to upper 90s, with overnight lows in the lower 70s. The influence of
the upper level ridge should keep rain chances near zero. Models are
less aggressive in a possible cold front moving into West Central
Texas late next week. The upper level trough across the Northern
Plains is forecast to be weaker than originally anticipated, keeping
the cold front to the north of the area. For now, PoPs were left out
of the forecast on days 6 and 7, as the upper level ridge continues
to dominate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  90  67  90  68 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  66  92  65  93  68 /  10  10   5   5   5
Junction  68  92  66  93  68 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JW/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 012040
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
340 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Weak northwest flow aloft will continue across the Southern Plains
into Saturday with high pressure aloft centered south and west of
the area. The cold front that moved through the area yesterday will
remain stationary across deep south Texas and northern Mexico
through Saturday. We`ll see light east to northeast winds continue
across the area the next 24 hours, resulting in a continuation of
below normal temperatures. Low temperatures tonight will generally
be in the mid and upper 60s, with highs on Saturday around 90
degrees areawide.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
north of the stalled front tonight and early Saturday. Most of this
activity will remain south and west of the area but a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms may creep into Crockett county after
midnight into Saturday morning. Will keep slight POPs going across
this into Saturday.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

A steady warm up is forecast through next week. An upper level ridge
will expand and dominate the weather for West Central Texas from
Sunday through much of next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, while overnight lows drop into the mid
to upper 60s. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast from the
middle to latter part of the work week, with highs back into the mid
to upper 90s, with overnight lows in the lower 70s. The influence of
the upper level ridge should keep rain chances near zero. Models are
less aggressive in a possible cold front moving into West Central
Texas late next week. The upper level trough across the Northern
Plains is forecast to be weaker than originally anticipated, keeping
the cold front to the north of the area. For now, PoPs were left out
of the forecast on days 6 and 7, as the upper level ridge continues
to dominate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  90  67  90  68 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  66  92  65  93  68 /  10  10   5   5   5
Junction  68  92  66  93  68 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JW/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KFWD 012021
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING DECEASING
CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONALLY HOT AND RAIN FREE WEATHER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SOME DEVIATIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS SOLUTIONS BREAKS THE
UPPER RIDGE DOWN AND MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
KEEP THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED HOT AND
RAIN-FREE WEATHER.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS TO CONTINUE LIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS BY
22Z. SKIES SHOULD GO SCT250 THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT KDAL COULD SEE
BKN022 10-15Z.

THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS AT ALL SITES NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.    75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  90  73  93  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              69  91  71  93  71 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             66  86  68  89  68 /   5  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            67  89  68  93  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  89  68  90  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            70  90  74  91  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  87  71  92  70 /   5  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  88  71  92  71 /  10  10   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  92  70  93  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  91  68  92  67 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 012021
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING DECEASING
CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONALLY HOT AND RAIN FREE WEATHER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SOME DEVIATIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS SOLUTIONS BREAKS THE
UPPER RIDGE DOWN AND MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
KEEP THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED HOT AND
RAIN-FREE WEATHER.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS TO CONTINUE LIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS BY
22Z. SKIES SHOULD GO SCT250 THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT KDAL COULD SEE
BKN022 10-15Z.

THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS AT ALL SITES NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.    75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  90  73  93  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              69  91  71  93  71 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             66  86  68  89  68 /   5  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            67  89  68  93  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  89  68  90  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            70  90  74  91  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  87  71  92  70 /   5  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  88  71  92  71 /  10  10   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  92  70  93  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  91  68  92  67 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 012021
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING DECEASING
CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONALLY HOT AND RAIN FREE WEATHER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SOME DEVIATIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS SOLUTIONS BREAKS THE
UPPER RIDGE DOWN AND MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
KEEP THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED HOT AND
RAIN-FREE WEATHER.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS TO CONTINUE LIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS BY
22Z. SKIES SHOULD GO SCT250 THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT KDAL COULD SEE
BKN022 10-15Z.

THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS AT ALL SITES NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.    75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  90  73  93  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              69  91  71  93  71 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             66  86  68  89  68 /   5  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            67  89  68  93  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  89  68  90  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            70  90  74  91  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  87  71  92  70 /   5  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  88  71  92  71 /  10  10   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  92  70  93  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  91  68  92  67 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 012021
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING DECEASING
CLOUDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST EXTENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONALLY HOT AND RAIN FREE WEATHER. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF NEXT WEEK BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT
FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CONTINUED WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THERE ARE SOME DEVIATIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS SOLUTIONS BREAKS THE
UPPER RIDGE DOWN AND MOVES IT TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
KEEP THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED HOT AND
RAIN-FREE WEATHER.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS TO CONTINUE LIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS BY
22Z. SKIES SHOULD GO SCT250 THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT KDAL COULD SEE
BKN022 10-15Z.

THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS AT ALL SITES NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.    75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  90  73  93  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              69  91  71  93  71 /  10  10   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             66  86  68  89  68 /   5  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            67  89  68  93  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  89  68  90  68 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            70  90  74  91  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  87  71  92  70 /   5  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  88  71  92  71 /  10  10   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            69  92  70  93  70 /  10  10   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  91  68  92  67 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 012018
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
318 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
CONTINUE TO PROG A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS NW-SE
ACRS THE SWRN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THESE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT
TO WHETHER WEAK DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WL ENTER THE CWA DRG THE
PERIOD AND DIFFER AS TO WHETHER SUBSIDENCE WL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. WL SIMPLY FOCUS ON SFC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MSTR CONVERGENCE AND HIGH/ABOVE
AVERAGE PWAT MAGNITUDES. ISOLD CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE
EXTREME NRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE E-W ALONG/NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY WL MOVE SLOWLY
SWD SATURDAY AND THUS EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO SHIFT
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SATURDAY...CONSISTENT WITH SREF QPF
PROBABILITY PATTERN DRG THE PERIOD. NAM SOUNDING MORE CONDUCIVE TO
LOCALLY-HEAVY RAINFALL SAT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN CWA. OWING TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...EXPECT LGT WIND DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT
MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SATURDAY TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 100F.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH AS
UPPER HIGH AND DEEP LOW BRING A NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW TOWARD SOUTH
TEXAS. PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN START TO
RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY (THAT IS BORDERLINE
MOISTURE) AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY THE CAP
BECOMES STRONGER AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE STAYS ABOUT THE SAME...WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AND WITH STRONGER CAP...FEEL IT BEST TO LEAVE RAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS IS STILL SHOWING
A TUTT LOW MOVING INTO MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY (WELL SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE)...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES FARTHER WEST INLAND. 00Z
ECMWF HAD THIS FEATURE...AND MOVED IT INLAND BUT NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE RIO GRANDE. 12Z ECMWF NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE NOW. THUS...AM
GOING TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY AND DITTO ON FRIDAY. AM
NOT SAYING THAT RAIN IS OUT OF THE QUESTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT FEEL ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION AND INCLUDE A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL...TEMPERATURE
FORECAST LOOKED REASONABLE AND DID MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP BY MID WEEK (HIGHS AND LOWS).
BY THURSDAY HEAT INDICES AOA 105F BUT AOB 110F WILL BE BACK OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. ON THE MARINE
SIDE...SHOULD SEE WINDS BELOW SCA (AND SCEC) THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  75  95  74  /  30  30  10  20  20
VICTORIA          74  93  75  95  73  /  30  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            79  96  78  99  80  /  30  30  20  10  10
ALICE             75  95  74  98  73  /  30  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  88  78  91  78  /  30  30  10  20  20
COTULLA           76  94  75  98  76  /  30  30  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  75  97  74  /  30  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  87  78  91  78  /  30  30  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 012018
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
318 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
CONTINUE TO PROG A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS NW-SE
ACRS THE SWRN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THESE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT
TO WHETHER WEAK DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WL ENTER THE CWA DRG THE
PERIOD AND DIFFER AS TO WHETHER SUBSIDENCE WL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. WL SIMPLY FOCUS ON SFC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MSTR CONVERGENCE AND HIGH/ABOVE
AVERAGE PWAT MAGNITUDES. ISOLD CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE
EXTREME NRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE E-W ALONG/NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY WL MOVE SLOWLY
SWD SATURDAY AND THUS EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO SHIFT
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SATURDAY...CONSISTENT WITH SREF QPF
PROBABILITY PATTERN DRG THE PERIOD. NAM SOUNDING MORE CONDUCIVE TO
LOCALLY-HEAVY RAINFALL SAT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN CWA. OWING TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...EXPECT LGT WIND DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT
MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SATURDAY TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 100F.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH AS
UPPER HIGH AND DEEP LOW BRING A NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW TOWARD SOUTH
TEXAS. PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN START TO
RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY (THAT IS BORDERLINE
MOISTURE) AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY THE CAP
BECOMES STRONGER AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE STAYS ABOUT THE SAME...WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AND WITH STRONGER CAP...FEEL IT BEST TO LEAVE RAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS IS STILL SHOWING
A TUTT LOW MOVING INTO MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY (WELL SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE)...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES FARTHER WEST INLAND. 00Z
ECMWF HAD THIS FEATURE...AND MOVED IT INLAND BUT NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE RIO GRANDE. 12Z ECMWF NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE NOW. THUS...AM
GOING TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY AND DITTO ON FRIDAY. AM
NOT SAYING THAT RAIN IS OUT OF THE QUESTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT FEEL ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION AND INCLUDE A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL...TEMPERATURE
FORECAST LOOKED REASONABLE AND DID MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP BY MID WEEK (HIGHS AND LOWS).
BY THURSDAY HEAT INDICES AOA 105F BUT AOB 110F WILL BE BACK OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. ON THE MARINE
SIDE...SHOULD SEE WINDS BELOW SCA (AND SCEC) THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  75  95  74  /  30  30  10  20  20
VICTORIA          74  93  75  95  73  /  30  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            79  96  78  99  80  /  30  30  20  10  10
ALICE             75  95  74  98  73  /  30  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  88  78  91  78  /  30  30  10  20  20
COTULLA           76  94  75  98  76  /  30  30  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  75  97  74  /  30  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  87  78  91  78  /  30  30  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KEWX 012014
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
314 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND GULF COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND PRODUCE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SATURDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN HALF OF CONUS
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. AT THE
SURFACE...REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL LINGER AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND FLATTENING
THINGS OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE
FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  93  72  92  73 /  -   10  -   10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  92  69  92  70 /  -   10  -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  94  70  94  71 /  -   10  -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  70  90  71 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  92  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  91  71  91  71 /  -   -   -   10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  94  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  93  70  92  71 /  -   10  -   10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  91  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  94  73  94  73 /  10  10  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KEWX 012014
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
314 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND GULF COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND PRODUCE CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SATURDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN HALF OF CONUS
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. AT THE
SURFACE...REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL LINGER AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PRODUCE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND FLATTENING
THINGS OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE
FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  93  72  92  73 /  -   10  -   10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  68  92  69  92  70 /  -   10  -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  94  70  94  71 /  -   10  -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  70  90  71 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  92  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  91  71  91  71 /  -   -   -   10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  94  71  95  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  93  70  92  71 /  -   10  -   10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  91  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  93  74  93  75 /  10  10  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  94  73  94  73 /  10  10  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KBRO 011951
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
251 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE
NIGHT. AS OF 19Z...CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EARLIER TODAY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SHIFTING WINDS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING A
PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST LIMITING ANY SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE
SUN... CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL WEAKENING
AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND WITH
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LEFT THE INHERITED 30
PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD PLAY INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. RAIN FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM
MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON
SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PATTERN ACROSS THE US
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BLOCKING
PATTERN FINALLY RELEASES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT NO
COMPLETELY SHUTTING IT DOWN. THE NEXT AGITATOR FOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE THE MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PULL ITS INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WWD LATE IN THE WEEK PULLING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FURTHER INLAND.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING GREAT
BOATING WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  91  78  92 /  10  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  93 /  10  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            78  95  78  95 /  10  20  20  30
MCALLEN              79  98  78  98 /  10  30  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 100  78 100 /  20  30  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  88  80  88 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

67/64






000
FXUS64 KBRO 011951
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
251 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE
NIGHT. AS OF 19Z...CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EARLIER TODAY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SHIFTING WINDS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING A
PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST LIMITING ANY SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE
SUN... CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL WEAKENING
AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND WITH
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LEFT THE INHERITED 30
PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD PLAY INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. RAIN FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM
MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON
SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PATTERN ACROSS THE US
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BLOCKING
PATTERN FINALLY RELEASES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT NO
COMPLETELY SHUTTING IT DOWN. THE NEXT AGITATOR FOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE THE MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PULL ITS INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WWD LATE IN THE WEEK PULLING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FURTHER INLAND.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING GREAT
BOATING WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  91  78  92 /  10  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  93 /  10  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            78  95  78  95 /  10  20  20  30
MCALLEN              79  98  78  98 /  10  30  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 100  78 100 /  20  30  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  88  80  88 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

67/64





000
FXUS64 KMAF 011937
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
237 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An elongated and fractured upper ridge extending from SoCal to the
Mexican states of Chihuahua/Coahuila is aiding monsoonal moisture in
staying over Arizona and New Mexico, and over the western half or so
of the forecast area this afternoon.  A shortwave trough translating
slowly east/southeastward between the ua ridge and an ua trough over
the eastern ConUS is the reason for the fracture, and also playing a
hand in fairly widespread convection we`ve seen last night and so
far today.  There also appears to be at least two Mesoscale
Convective Vortices (MCVs), from earlier convection, spinning near
the Guadalupe Mountains, and the other near El Paso.  A surface
ridge over eastern portions of the forecast area is fostering a more
stable atmosphere, although showers have been able to move into the
central Permian Basin early this afternoon.

Cloud cover over the higher terrain of West Texas is beginning to
thin this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms from earlier are
moving into the PB and west central Texas.  This will allow the
atmosphere to destabilize before nightfall, and along with
persistent upslope flow and close proximity to the mentioned ua
features, result in additional shower and thunderstorm development.
Will continue to carry the highest PoPs over these areas tonight and
Saturday.  Precipitable Water is fairly high over the western third
of the forecast area, around 1.5 inches, while the soil is wet, and
flash flood guidance low.  The steering flow around/under the ua
ridge is weak so slow moving thunderstorms, some strong, could drop
1-2 inches of rain per hour.  Considering all this, will issue a
Flash Flood Watch (FFA) for locations along and west of a Guadalupe
Mountains, to Alpine to Presidio line tonight and Saturday.  Also
have concerns about Eddy County in southeast New Mexico where
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches have occurred in the last couple
of days.  It doesn`t appear the atmosphere will destabilize there
quite as much through the rest of the day, so have not included them
in the FFA.  Subsequent shifts will have to monitor and adjust
accordingly.  There could also be additional rises along the Rio
Grande River tonight and Saturday due to runoff from heavy rainfall
over the forecast area, in addition to the potential for heavy rain
over eastern Chihuahua and more water flowing into the Rio Grande
from the Rio Conchos.

Saturday night and thereafter, the eastern ConUS ua trough will
translate eastward, allowing the ua ridge to expand eastward back
over the region.  We should see a gradual decrease in monsoonal
moisture over the region as a result, more subsidence, lower rain
chances and temperatures warming back to normal levels as early as
Tuesday.  There still could be heavy rain concerns along the western
fringe of the forecast area Saturday night, if not Sunday.  Later
shifts will have to monitor the progress of the ua features to see
whether an extension of the FFA is needed.  Rain chances may be few
and far between from Sunday until Wednesday, but there are
indications another ua trough will flatten the ridge mid next week
and allow for more rain chances.  For now, will just keep a slight
chance of thunderstorms mainly over the western half of the forecast
area for mid to late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  88  66  89  /  20  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              70  91  68  91  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                67  86  68  89  /  50  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  75  91  74  96  /  30  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  87  68  90  /  30  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  76  63  79  /  60  60  30  30
HOBBS NM                   66  85  65  87  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   63  77  63  81  /  60  70  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  90  67  90  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  69  90  67  89  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    68  90  69  91  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening through
     Saturday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Guadalupe Mountains...Marfa Plateau...
     Presidio Valley...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

05/67




000
FXUS64 KMAF 011937
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
237 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An elongated and fractured upper ridge extending from SoCal to the
Mexican states of Chihuahua/Coahuila is aiding monsoonal moisture in
staying over Arizona and New Mexico, and over the western half or so
of the forecast area this afternoon.  A shortwave trough translating
slowly east/southeastward between the ua ridge and an ua trough over
the eastern ConUS is the reason for the fracture, and also playing a
hand in fairly widespread convection we`ve seen last night and so
far today.  There also appears to be at least two Mesoscale
Convective Vortices (MCVs), from earlier convection, spinning near
the Guadalupe Mountains, and the other near El Paso.  A surface
ridge over eastern portions of the forecast area is fostering a more
stable atmosphere, although showers have been able to move into the
central Permian Basin early this afternoon.

Cloud cover over the higher terrain of West Texas is beginning to
thin this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms from earlier are
moving into the PB and west central Texas.  This will allow the
atmosphere to destabilize before nightfall, and along with
persistent upslope flow and close proximity to the mentioned ua
features, result in additional shower and thunderstorm development.
Will continue to carry the highest PoPs over these areas tonight and
Saturday.  Precipitable Water is fairly high over the western third
of the forecast area, around 1.5 inches, while the soil is wet, and
flash flood guidance low.  The steering flow around/under the ua
ridge is weak so slow moving thunderstorms, some strong, could drop
1-2 inches of rain per hour.  Considering all this, will issue a
Flash Flood Watch (FFA) for locations along and west of a Guadalupe
Mountains, to Alpine to Presidio line tonight and Saturday.  Also
have concerns about Eddy County in southeast New Mexico where
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches have occurred in the last couple
of days.  It doesn`t appear the atmosphere will destabilize there
quite as much through the rest of the day, so have not included them
in the FFA.  Subsequent shifts will have to monitor and adjust
accordingly.  There could also be additional rises along the Rio
Grande River tonight and Saturday due to runoff from heavy rainfall
over the forecast area, in addition to the potential for heavy rain
over eastern Chihuahua and more water flowing into the Rio Grande
from the Rio Conchos.

Saturday night and thereafter, the eastern ConUS ua trough will
translate eastward, allowing the ua ridge to expand eastward back
over the region.  We should see a gradual decrease in monsoonal
moisture over the region as a result, more subsidence, lower rain
chances and temperatures warming back to normal levels as early as
Tuesday.  There still could be heavy rain concerns along the western
fringe of the forecast area Saturday night, if not Sunday.  Later
shifts will have to monitor the progress of the ua features to see
whether an extension of the FFA is needed.  Rain chances may be few
and far between from Sunday until Wednesday, but there are
indications another ua trough will flatten the ridge mid next week
and allow for more rain chances.  For now, will just keep a slight
chance of thunderstorms mainly over the western half of the forecast
area for mid to late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  88  66  89  /  20  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              70  91  68  91  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                67  86  68  89  /  50  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  75  91  74  96  /  30  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  87  68  90  /  30  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  76  63  79  /  60  60  30  30
HOBBS NM                   66  85  65  87  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   63  77  63  81  /  60  70  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  90  67  90  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  69  90  67  89  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    68  90  69  91  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening through
     Saturday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Guadalupe Mountains...Marfa Plateau...
     Presidio Valley...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

05/67




000
FXUS64 KMAF 011937
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
237 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An elongated and fractured upper ridge extending from SoCal to the
Mexican states of Chihuahua/Coahuila is aiding monsoonal moisture in
staying over Arizona and New Mexico, and over the western half or so
of the forecast area this afternoon.  A shortwave trough translating
slowly east/southeastward between the ua ridge and an ua trough over
the eastern ConUS is the reason for the fracture, and also playing a
hand in fairly widespread convection we`ve seen last night and so
far today.  There also appears to be at least two Mesoscale
Convective Vortices (MCVs), from earlier convection, spinning near
the Guadalupe Mountains, and the other near El Paso.  A surface
ridge over eastern portions of the forecast area is fostering a more
stable atmosphere, although showers have been able to move into the
central Permian Basin early this afternoon.

Cloud cover over the higher terrain of West Texas is beginning to
thin this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms from earlier are
moving into the PB and west central Texas.  This will allow the
atmosphere to destabilize before nightfall, and along with
persistent upslope flow and close proximity to the mentioned ua
features, result in additional shower and thunderstorm development.
Will continue to carry the highest PoPs over these areas tonight and
Saturday.  Precipitable Water is fairly high over the western third
of the forecast area, around 1.5 inches, while the soil is wet, and
flash flood guidance low.  The steering flow around/under the ua
ridge is weak so slow moving thunderstorms, some strong, could drop
1-2 inches of rain per hour.  Considering all this, will issue a
Flash Flood Watch (FFA) for locations along and west of a Guadalupe
Mountains, to Alpine to Presidio line tonight and Saturday.  Also
have concerns about Eddy County in southeast New Mexico where
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches have occurred in the last couple
of days.  It doesn`t appear the atmosphere will destabilize there
quite as much through the rest of the day, so have not included them
in the FFA.  Subsequent shifts will have to monitor and adjust
accordingly.  There could also be additional rises along the Rio
Grande River tonight and Saturday due to runoff from heavy rainfall
over the forecast area, in addition to the potential for heavy rain
over eastern Chihuahua and more water flowing into the Rio Grande
from the Rio Conchos.

Saturday night and thereafter, the eastern ConUS ua trough will
translate eastward, allowing the ua ridge to expand eastward back
over the region.  We should see a gradual decrease in monsoonal
moisture over the region as a result, more subsidence, lower rain
chances and temperatures warming back to normal levels as early as
Tuesday.  There still could be heavy rain concerns along the western
fringe of the forecast area Saturday night, if not Sunday.  Later
shifts will have to monitor the progress of the ua features to see
whether an extension of the FFA is needed.  Rain chances may be few
and far between from Sunday until Wednesday, but there are
indications another ua trough will flatten the ridge mid next week
and allow for more rain chances.  For now, will just keep a slight
chance of thunderstorms mainly over the western half of the forecast
area for mid to late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  88  66  89  /  20  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              70  91  68  91  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                67  86  68  89  /  50  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  75  91  74  96  /  30  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  87  68  90  /  30  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  76  63  79  /  60  60  30  30
HOBBS NM                   66  85  65  87  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   63  77  63  81  /  60  70  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  90  67  90  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  69  90  67  89  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    68  90  69  91  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening through
     Saturday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Guadalupe Mountains...Marfa Plateau...
     Presidio Valley...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

05/67




000
FXUS64 KMAF 011937
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
237 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An elongated and fractured upper ridge extending from SoCal to the
Mexican states of Chihuahua/Coahuila is aiding monsoonal moisture in
staying over Arizona and New Mexico, and over the western half or so
of the forecast area this afternoon.  A shortwave trough translating
slowly east/southeastward between the ua ridge and an ua trough over
the eastern ConUS is the reason for the fracture, and also playing a
hand in fairly widespread convection we`ve seen last night and so
far today.  There also appears to be at least two Mesoscale
Convective Vortices (MCVs), from earlier convection, spinning near
the Guadalupe Mountains, and the other near El Paso.  A surface
ridge over eastern portions of the forecast area is fostering a more
stable atmosphere, although showers have been able to move into the
central Permian Basin early this afternoon.

Cloud cover over the higher terrain of West Texas is beginning to
thin this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms from earlier are
moving into the PB and west central Texas.  This will allow the
atmosphere to destabilize before nightfall, and along with
persistent upslope flow and close proximity to the mentioned ua
features, result in additional shower and thunderstorm development.
Will continue to carry the highest PoPs over these areas tonight and
Saturday.  Precipitable Water is fairly high over the western third
of the forecast area, around 1.5 inches, while the soil is wet, and
flash flood guidance low.  The steering flow around/under the ua
ridge is weak so slow moving thunderstorms, some strong, could drop
1-2 inches of rain per hour.  Considering all this, will issue a
Flash Flood Watch (FFA) for locations along and west of a Guadalupe
Mountains, to Alpine to Presidio line tonight and Saturday.  Also
have concerns about Eddy County in southeast New Mexico where
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches have occurred in the last couple
of days.  It doesn`t appear the atmosphere will destabilize there
quite as much through the rest of the day, so have not included them
in the FFA.  Subsequent shifts will have to monitor and adjust
accordingly.  There could also be additional rises along the Rio
Grande River tonight and Saturday due to runoff from heavy rainfall
over the forecast area, in addition to the potential for heavy rain
over eastern Chihuahua and more water flowing into the Rio Grande
from the Rio Conchos.

Saturday night and thereafter, the eastern ConUS ua trough will
translate eastward, allowing the ua ridge to expand eastward back
over the region.  We should see a gradual decrease in monsoonal
moisture over the region as a result, more subsidence, lower rain
chances and temperatures warming back to normal levels as early as
Tuesday.  There still could be heavy rain concerns along the western
fringe of the forecast area Saturday night, if not Sunday.  Later
shifts will have to monitor the progress of the ua features to see
whether an extension of the FFA is needed.  Rain chances may be few
and far between from Sunday until Wednesday, but there are
indications another ua trough will flatten the ridge mid next week
and allow for more rain chances.  For now, will just keep a slight
chance of thunderstorms mainly over the western half of the forecast
area for mid to late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  88  66  89  /  20  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              70  91  68  91  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                67  86  68  89  /  50  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  75  91  74  96  /  30  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  87  68  90  /  30  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  76  63  79  /  60  60  30  30
HOBBS NM                   66  85  65  87  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   63  77  63  81  /  60  70  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  90  67  90  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  69  90  67  89  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    68  90  69  91  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through Saturday
     afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening through
     Saturday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Guadalupe Mountains...Marfa Plateau...
     Presidio Valley...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

05/67



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 011907
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
107 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH FLASH FLOODING REMAINING A BIG THREAT INTO AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SOME DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND BRINGS AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR RAIN ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RETURN TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...DO DIFFER ON QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WHICH IS TYPICAL
IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. CURRENTLY VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE WITH KEPZ SOUNDING SHOWING PW`S OF 1.6 THIS MORNING. PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER HAMPERING TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR WEST AND GILA REGION. LINGERING ELONGATED VORT WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE BORDER REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING AND EXPECT TO SEE BEST CHANCE OVER EAST REMAINING WHERE
ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY AT...OVER EL PASO...HUDSPETH AND SOUTHERN
OTERO COUNTIES. OTHER AREAS TO WATCH...ESPECIALLY FOR FLOODING
WILL BE THE GILA REGION AND TOWARD LORDSBURG WHERE BETTER
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE. STORM MOTION ABOUT 5KTS OR LESS
ACROSS AREA SO WITH RECENT RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO
BE A THREAT AND WILL LEAVE FF WATCH GOING AS IS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR
SAT EXCEPT MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH UPPER DISTURBANCE...BUT RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND SETS UP SOME DECENT LOWER AND
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE RIVER WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS CLOUD COVER AND MORNING
PRECIPITATION PLAYING HAVOC WITH SOLAR INSOLATION. COOLER GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN BETTER LATELY AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

AGAIN NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PATTERN FOR SUNDAY EXCEPT UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST AND MAY BRING IN JUST ENOUGH DRIER
AIR INTO THE FAR EAST TO KEEP IT GENERALLY DRY THERE. KEPT HIGH
CHANCE POPS GOING WEST AND TAPERED DOWN TO THE EAST...NOT SURE LOW
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT AS MUCH DRYING AT THE SURFACE AS THE
GFS IS INDICATING. ECMWF SUPPORTS DRYING OVER HUDSPETH ON
MONDAY...JUST NOT AS MUCH AGAIN AS GFS. WENT WITH 40 POPS WEST AND
DOWN TO 20 IN THE FAR EAST WITH A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES.

RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN A BIT GOING INTO MIDWEEK WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. BOTH MODELS INDICATING INCREASED
POPS FOR WEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREAD
BACK EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD OR LONG LASTING WITH PW`S DOWN TO AN INCH...SO SHOULD
SEE MORE SUN ALLOWING FOR HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
P6SM SCT-BKN040-060 BKN-OVC100-120 WITH SCT TO NMRS 1-3SM
BKN020-030 SHOWERS AND TSMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS OVER
FAR WEST TX AND OVER GILA REGION THRU 12Z AND ALL AREAS AGAIN AFT
18Z. EASTERN SLOPES OF AREA MTS COULD AGAIN SEE SCT-BKN010-020
BETWEEN 10Z-18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND STARTING SUNDAY FROM THE EAST. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH EXCELLENT RECOVERIES AS
WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO
MOVE IN...HOWEVER A DAILY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS EACH
DAY WITH WESTERN ZONES HAVING GREATEST CHANCE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  85  68  87  70 /  70  60  40  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           67  83  68  84  64 /  60  40  30  30  20
LAS CRUCES              65  83  66  86  66 /  70  60  50  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              66  82  67  84  67 /  60  60  40  40  20
CLOUDCROFT              50  64  51  66  51 /  80  70  40  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  81  66  83  66 /  60  60  50  50  40
SILVER CITY             61  78  62  77  63 /  70  70  60  50  40
DEMING                  66  83  66  85  66 /  60  60  60  40  40
LORDSBURG               66  83  66  85  68 /  70  60  60  50  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      67  84  68  86  70 /  60  60  40  40  30
DELL CITY               66  84  67  86  66 /  60  40  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            67  85  67  87  69 /  60  40  30  30  20
LOMA LINDA              64  85  65  83  64 /  60  50  40  40  20
FABENS                  68  85  66  87  68 /  60  50  40  30  20
SANTA TERESA            64  84  65  86  69 /  60  60  40  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  85  68  87  68 /  60  60  50  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  83  67  87  67 /  60  60  50  50  30
HATCH                   64  83  65  85  66 /  60  60  50  50  30
COLUMBUS                66  84  67  86  67 /  70  60  60  40  30
OROGRANDE               64  85  65  86  67 /  60  60  40  40  20
MAYHILL                 57  71  58  74  59 /  80  80  50  40  20
MESCALERO               56  71  57  73  57 /  70  70  40  40  30
TIMBERON                59  71  60  73  56 /  70  60  40  40  20
WINSTON                 58  79  59  79  60 /  70  80  60  50  50
HILLSBORO               65  84  66  86  65 /  60  70  50  50  40
SPACEPORT               65  82  66  84  66 /  60  60  50  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            61  82  62  82  61 /  90  80  60  50  50
HURLEY                  62  78  63  80  64 /  60  70  60  50  40
CLIFF                   54  81  55  83  63 /  90  70  60  50  50
MULE CREEK              62  80  63  82  64 /  80  60  70  50  40
FAYWOOD                 63  83  64  82  64 /  60  70  60  50  40
ANIMAS                  65  84  66  85  67 /  80  60  60  50  40
HACHITA                 64  85  65  86  66 /  80  60  60  50  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          64  83  65  85  66 /  80  50  60  40  40
CLOVERDALE              62  81  63  83  62 /  80  50  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

26/26





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 011907
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
107 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH FLASH FLOODING REMAINING A BIG THREAT INTO AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SOME DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND BRINGS AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR RAIN ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RETURN TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...DO DIFFER ON QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WHICH IS TYPICAL
IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. CURRENTLY VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE WITH KEPZ SOUNDING SHOWING PW`S OF 1.6 THIS MORNING. PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER HAMPERING TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR WEST AND GILA REGION. LINGERING ELONGATED VORT WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE BORDER REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING AND EXPECT TO SEE BEST CHANCE OVER EAST REMAINING WHERE
ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY AT...OVER EL PASO...HUDSPETH AND SOUTHERN
OTERO COUNTIES. OTHER AREAS TO WATCH...ESPECIALLY FOR FLOODING
WILL BE THE GILA REGION AND TOWARD LORDSBURG WHERE BETTER
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE. STORM MOTION ABOUT 5KTS OR LESS
ACROSS AREA SO WITH RECENT RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO
BE A THREAT AND WILL LEAVE FF WATCH GOING AS IS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR
SAT EXCEPT MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH UPPER DISTURBANCE...BUT RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND SETS UP SOME DECENT LOWER AND
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE RIVER WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS CLOUD COVER AND MORNING
PRECIPITATION PLAYING HAVOC WITH SOLAR INSOLATION. COOLER GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN BETTER LATELY AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

AGAIN NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PATTERN FOR SUNDAY EXCEPT UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST AND MAY BRING IN JUST ENOUGH DRIER
AIR INTO THE FAR EAST TO KEEP IT GENERALLY DRY THERE. KEPT HIGH
CHANCE POPS GOING WEST AND TAPERED DOWN TO THE EAST...NOT SURE LOW
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT AS MUCH DRYING AT THE SURFACE AS THE
GFS IS INDICATING. ECMWF SUPPORTS DRYING OVER HUDSPETH ON
MONDAY...JUST NOT AS MUCH AGAIN AS GFS. WENT WITH 40 POPS WEST AND
DOWN TO 20 IN THE FAR EAST WITH A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES.

RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN A BIT GOING INTO MIDWEEK WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. BOTH MODELS INDICATING INCREASED
POPS FOR WEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREAD
BACK EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD OR LONG LASTING WITH PW`S DOWN TO AN INCH...SO SHOULD
SEE MORE SUN ALLOWING FOR HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
P6SM SCT-BKN040-060 BKN-OVC100-120 WITH SCT TO NMRS 1-3SM
BKN020-030 SHOWERS AND TSMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS OVER
FAR WEST TX AND OVER GILA REGION THRU 12Z AND ALL AREAS AGAIN AFT
18Z. EASTERN SLOPES OF AREA MTS COULD AGAIN SEE SCT-BKN010-020
BETWEEN 10Z-18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND STARTING SUNDAY FROM THE EAST. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH EXCELLENT RECOVERIES AS
WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO
MOVE IN...HOWEVER A DAILY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS EACH
DAY WITH WESTERN ZONES HAVING GREATEST CHANCE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  85  68  87  70 /  70  60  40  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           67  83  68  84  64 /  60  40  30  30  20
LAS CRUCES              65  83  66  86  66 /  70  60  50  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              66  82  67  84  67 /  60  60  40  40  20
CLOUDCROFT              50  64  51  66  51 /  80  70  40  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  81  66  83  66 /  60  60  50  50  40
SILVER CITY             61  78  62  77  63 /  70  70  60  50  40
DEMING                  66  83  66  85  66 /  60  60  60  40  40
LORDSBURG               66  83  66  85  68 /  70  60  60  50  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      67  84  68  86  70 /  60  60  40  40  30
DELL CITY               66  84  67  86  66 /  60  40  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            67  85  67  87  69 /  60  40  30  30  20
LOMA LINDA              64  85  65  83  64 /  60  50  40  40  20
FABENS                  68  85  66  87  68 /  60  50  40  30  20
SANTA TERESA            64  84  65  86  69 /  60  60  40  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  85  68  87  68 /  60  60  50  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  83  67  87  67 /  60  60  50  50  30
HATCH                   64  83  65  85  66 /  60  60  50  50  30
COLUMBUS                66  84  67  86  67 /  70  60  60  40  30
OROGRANDE               64  85  65  86  67 /  60  60  40  40  20
MAYHILL                 57  71  58  74  59 /  80  80  50  40  20
MESCALERO               56  71  57  73  57 /  70  70  40  40  30
TIMBERON                59  71  60  73  56 /  70  60  40  40  20
WINSTON                 58  79  59  79  60 /  70  80  60  50  50
HILLSBORO               65  84  66  86  65 /  60  70  50  50  40
SPACEPORT               65  82  66  84  66 /  60  60  50  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            61  82  62  82  61 /  90  80  60  50  50
HURLEY                  62  78  63  80  64 /  60  70  60  50  40
CLIFF                   54  81  55  83  63 /  90  70  60  50  50
MULE CREEK              62  80  63  82  64 /  80  60  70  50  40
FAYWOOD                 63  83  64  82  64 /  60  70  60  50  40
ANIMAS                  65  84  66  85  67 /  80  60  60  50  40
HACHITA                 64  85  65  86  66 /  80  60  60  50  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          64  83  65  85  66 /  80  50  60  40  40
CLOVERDALE              62  81  63  83  62 /  80  50  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

26/26





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 011907
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
107 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH FLASH FLOODING REMAINING A BIG THREAT INTO AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SOME DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND BRINGS AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR RAIN ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RETURN TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...DO DIFFER ON QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WHICH IS TYPICAL
IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. CURRENTLY VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE WITH KEPZ SOUNDING SHOWING PW`S OF 1.6 THIS MORNING. PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER HAMPERING TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR WEST AND GILA REGION. LINGERING ELONGATED VORT WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE BORDER REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING AND EXPECT TO SEE BEST CHANCE OVER EAST REMAINING WHERE
ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY AT...OVER EL PASO...HUDSPETH AND SOUTHERN
OTERO COUNTIES. OTHER AREAS TO WATCH...ESPECIALLY FOR FLOODING
WILL BE THE GILA REGION AND TOWARD LORDSBURG WHERE BETTER
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE. STORM MOTION ABOUT 5KTS OR LESS
ACROSS AREA SO WITH RECENT RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO
BE A THREAT AND WILL LEAVE FF WATCH GOING AS IS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR
SAT EXCEPT MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH UPPER DISTURBANCE...BUT RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND SETS UP SOME DECENT LOWER AND
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE RIVER WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS CLOUD COVER AND MORNING
PRECIPITATION PLAYING HAVOC WITH SOLAR INSOLATION. COOLER GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN BETTER LATELY AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

AGAIN NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PATTERN FOR SUNDAY EXCEPT UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST AND MAY BRING IN JUST ENOUGH DRIER
AIR INTO THE FAR EAST TO KEEP IT GENERALLY DRY THERE. KEPT HIGH
CHANCE POPS GOING WEST AND TAPERED DOWN TO THE EAST...NOT SURE LOW
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT AS MUCH DRYING AT THE SURFACE AS THE
GFS IS INDICATING. ECMWF SUPPORTS DRYING OVER HUDSPETH ON
MONDAY...JUST NOT AS MUCH AGAIN AS GFS. WENT WITH 40 POPS WEST AND
DOWN TO 20 IN THE FAR EAST WITH A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES.

RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN A BIT GOING INTO MIDWEEK WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. BOTH MODELS INDICATING INCREASED
POPS FOR WEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREAD
BACK EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD OR LONG LASTING WITH PW`S DOWN TO AN INCH...SO SHOULD
SEE MORE SUN ALLOWING FOR HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
P6SM SCT-BKN040-060 BKN-OVC100-120 WITH SCT TO NMRS 1-3SM
BKN020-030 SHOWERS AND TSMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS OVER
FAR WEST TX AND OVER GILA REGION THRU 12Z AND ALL AREAS AGAIN AFT
18Z. EASTERN SLOPES OF AREA MTS COULD AGAIN SEE SCT-BKN010-020
BETWEEN 10Z-18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND STARTING SUNDAY FROM THE EAST. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH EXCELLENT RECOVERIES AS
WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO
MOVE IN...HOWEVER A DAILY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS EACH
DAY WITH WESTERN ZONES HAVING GREATEST CHANCE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  85  68  87  70 /  70  60  40  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           67  83  68  84  64 /  60  40  30  30  20
LAS CRUCES              65  83  66  86  66 /  70  60  50  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              66  82  67  84  67 /  60  60  40  40  20
CLOUDCROFT              50  64  51  66  51 /  80  70  40  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  81  66  83  66 /  60  60  50  50  40
SILVER CITY             61  78  62  77  63 /  70  70  60  50  40
DEMING                  66  83  66  85  66 /  60  60  60  40  40
LORDSBURG               66  83  66  85  68 /  70  60  60  50  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      67  84  68  86  70 /  60  60  40  40  30
DELL CITY               66  84  67  86  66 /  60  40  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            67  85  67  87  69 /  60  40  30  30  20
LOMA LINDA              64  85  65  83  64 /  60  50  40  40  20
FABENS                  68  85  66  87  68 /  60  50  40  30  20
SANTA TERESA            64  84  65  86  69 /  60  60  40  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  85  68  87  68 /  60  60  50  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  83  67  87  67 /  60  60  50  50  30
HATCH                   64  83  65  85  66 /  60  60  50  50  30
COLUMBUS                66  84  67  86  67 /  70  60  60  40  30
OROGRANDE               64  85  65  86  67 /  60  60  40  40  20
MAYHILL                 57  71  58  74  59 /  80  80  50  40  20
MESCALERO               56  71  57  73  57 /  70  70  40  40  30
TIMBERON                59  71  60  73  56 /  70  60  40  40  20
WINSTON                 58  79  59  79  60 /  70  80  60  50  50
HILLSBORO               65  84  66  86  65 /  60  70  50  50  40
SPACEPORT               65  82  66  84  66 /  60  60  50  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            61  82  62  82  61 /  90  80  60  50  50
HURLEY                  62  78  63  80  64 /  60  70  60  50  40
CLIFF                   54  81  55  83  63 /  90  70  60  50  50
MULE CREEK              62  80  63  82  64 /  80  60  70  50  40
FAYWOOD                 63  83  64  82  64 /  60  70  60  50  40
ANIMAS                  65  84  66  85  67 /  80  60  60  50  40
HACHITA                 64  85  65  86  66 /  80  60  60  50  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          64  83  65  85  66 /  80  50  60  40  40
CLOVERDALE              62  81  63  83  62 /  80  50  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

26/26





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 011907
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
107 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH FLASH FLOODING REMAINING A BIG THREAT INTO AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SOME DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO AT
LEAST THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND BRINGS AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR RAIN ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RETURN TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...DO DIFFER ON QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WHICH IS TYPICAL
IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. CURRENTLY VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE WITH KEPZ SOUNDING SHOWING PW`S OF 1.6 THIS MORNING. PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER HAMPERING TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR WEST AND GILA REGION. LINGERING ELONGATED VORT WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE BORDER REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING AND EXPECT TO SEE BEST CHANCE OVER EAST REMAINING WHERE
ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY AT...OVER EL PASO...HUDSPETH AND SOUTHERN
OTERO COUNTIES. OTHER AREAS TO WATCH...ESPECIALLY FOR FLOODING
WILL BE THE GILA REGION AND TOWARD LORDSBURG WHERE BETTER
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE. STORM MOTION ABOUT 5KTS OR LESS
ACROSS AREA SO WITH RECENT RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO
BE A THREAT AND WILL LEAVE FF WATCH GOING AS IS. LITTLE CHANGE FOR
SAT EXCEPT MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH UPPER DISTURBANCE...BUT RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AND SETS UP SOME DECENT LOWER AND
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE RIVER WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE AS CLOUD COVER AND MORNING
PRECIPITATION PLAYING HAVOC WITH SOLAR INSOLATION. COOLER GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN BETTER LATELY AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

AGAIN NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PATTERN FOR SUNDAY EXCEPT UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY EAST AND MAY BRING IN JUST ENOUGH DRIER
AIR INTO THE FAR EAST TO KEEP IT GENERALLY DRY THERE. KEPT HIGH
CHANCE POPS GOING WEST AND TAPERED DOWN TO THE EAST...NOT SURE LOW
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT AS MUCH DRYING AT THE SURFACE AS THE
GFS IS INDICATING. ECMWF SUPPORTS DRYING OVER HUDSPETH ON
MONDAY...JUST NOT AS MUCH AGAIN AS GFS. WENT WITH 40 POPS WEST AND
DOWN TO 20 IN THE FAR EAST WITH A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES.

RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN A BIT GOING INTO MIDWEEK WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. BOTH MODELS INDICATING INCREASED
POPS FOR WEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREAD
BACK EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK AS
WIDESPREAD OR LONG LASTING WITH PW`S DOWN TO AN INCH...SO SHOULD
SEE MORE SUN ALLOWING FOR HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
P6SM SCT-BKN040-060 BKN-OVC100-120 WITH SCT TO NMRS 1-3SM
BKN020-030 SHOWERS AND TSMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS OVER
FAR WEST TX AND OVER GILA REGION THRU 12Z AND ALL AREAS AGAIN AFT
18Z. EASTERN SLOPES OF AREA MTS COULD AGAIN SEE SCT-BKN010-020
BETWEEN 10Z-18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND STARTING SUNDAY FROM THE EAST. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH EXCELLENT RECOVERIES AS
WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO
MOVE IN...HOWEVER A DAILY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS EACH
DAY WITH WESTERN ZONES HAVING GREATEST CHANCE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  85  68  87  70 /  70  60  40  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           67  83  68  84  64 /  60  40  30  30  20
LAS CRUCES              65  83  66  86  66 /  70  60  50  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              66  82  67  84  67 /  60  60  40  40  20
CLOUDCROFT              50  64  51  66  51 /  80  70  40  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  81  66  83  66 /  60  60  50  50  40
SILVER CITY             61  78  62  77  63 /  70  70  60  50  40
DEMING                  66  83  66  85  66 /  60  60  60  40  40
LORDSBURG               66  83  66  85  68 /  70  60  60  50  40
WEST EL PASO METRO      67  84  68  86  70 /  60  60  40  40  30
DELL CITY               66  84  67  86  66 /  60  40  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            67  85  67  87  69 /  60  40  30  30  20
LOMA LINDA              64  85  65  83  64 /  60  50  40  40  20
FABENS                  68  85  66  87  68 /  60  50  40  30  20
SANTA TERESA            64  84  65  86  69 /  60  60  40  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  85  68  87  68 /  60  60  50  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  83  67  87  67 /  60  60  50  50  30
HATCH                   64  83  65  85  66 /  60  60  50  50  30
COLUMBUS                66  84  67  86  67 /  70  60  60  40  30
OROGRANDE               64  85  65  86  67 /  60  60  40  40  20
MAYHILL                 57  71  58  74  59 /  80  80  50  40  20
MESCALERO               56  71  57  73  57 /  70  70  40  40  30
TIMBERON                59  71  60  73  56 /  70  60  40  40  20
WINSTON                 58  79  59  79  60 /  70  80  60  50  50
HILLSBORO               65  84  66  86  65 /  60  70  50  50  40
SPACEPORT               65  82  66  84  66 /  60  60  50  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            61  82  62  82  61 /  90  80  60  50  50
HURLEY                  62  78  63  80  64 /  60  70  60  50  40
CLIFF                   54  81  55  83  63 /  90  70  60  50  50
MULE CREEK              62  80  63  82  64 /  80  60  70  50  40
FAYWOOD                 63  83  64  82  64 /  60  70  60  50  40
ANIMAS                  65  84  66  85  67 /  80  60  60  50  40
HACHITA                 64  85  65  86  66 /  80  60  60  50  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          64  83  65  85  66 /  80  50  60  40  40
CLOVERDALE              62  81  63  83  62 /  80  50  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

26/26





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011848
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
148 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMIANTE VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING YET SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NRN SECTIONS. A TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATE MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281. BRIEF ISOLD SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRG THE MID/LATE MORNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST
LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND VCT...WITH ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT FOR CRP-ALI-LRD LATER WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING.
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT AT VCT LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR
STRATUS THIS MORNING SHOULD TRANSITION TO VFR THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE WEAK FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES FURTHER SOUTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STILL A CHALLENGE WITH RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS NOT DEEP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WITH THIS SAID...DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE POPS ANY
FURTHER KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. HOWEVER DID KEEP HIGHER
CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY
REMAINS GREATEST AND H85 AND H7 TEMPS COOL THE MOST. WOULD
EXPECTED AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA GENERALLY DURING
THE MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WRF-
4KM MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN THIS SAME TREND WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE
MINOR TWEAKS STAYING BELOW PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE YET KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 90S AREA-WIDE.
INCREASE MOISTURE DEPTH AND OMEGA COME INTO PLAY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS KEPT CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR. THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL EXIST AS STORM FLOW WILL BE SLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR SOUTH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES ACROSS THE REGION. BOUNDARY IS PROG TO
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIP
CHANCES EXISTING PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...STRATIFICATION IMPACTS OVER MARINE ZONES AND IMMEDIATE
COAST SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE IN
THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PROG TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A
SLIGHT INVERSION AROUND H7...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HEIGHTS ON MON MAY LEAD TO AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. PWATS LOWER EVEN FURTHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WIND PROFILE BECOMES NORTHERLY FROM H8 AND
ABOVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FURTHER. LIGHT NE SFC FLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEFORE
GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS THROUGH MID WEEK /ESPECIALLY FOR MAX
TEMPS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  74  95  74  /  30  30  20  20  20
VICTORIA          74  91  73  95  73  /  30  30  10  10  10
LAREDO            79  97  78 100  78  /  30  30  20  10  10
ALICE             76  94  74  97  73  /  30  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  89  78  91  77  /  30  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           77  94  75  98  74  /  30  30  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  74  97  74  /  30  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  88  78  91  78  /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011848
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
148 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMIANTE VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING YET SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NRN SECTIONS. A TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATE MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281. BRIEF ISOLD SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRG THE MID/LATE MORNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST
LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND VCT...WITH ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT FOR CRP-ALI-LRD LATER WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING.
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT AT VCT LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR
STRATUS THIS MORNING SHOULD TRANSITION TO VFR THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE WEAK FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES FURTHER SOUTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STILL A CHALLENGE WITH RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS NOT DEEP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WITH THIS SAID...DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE POPS ANY
FURTHER KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. HOWEVER DID KEEP HIGHER
CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY
REMAINS GREATEST AND H85 AND H7 TEMPS COOL THE MOST. WOULD
EXPECTED AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA GENERALLY DURING
THE MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WRF-
4KM MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN THIS SAME TREND WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE
MINOR TWEAKS STAYING BELOW PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE YET KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 90S AREA-WIDE.
INCREASE MOISTURE DEPTH AND OMEGA COME INTO PLAY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS KEPT CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR. THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL EXIST AS STORM FLOW WILL BE SLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR SOUTH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES ACROSS THE REGION. BOUNDARY IS PROG TO
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIP
CHANCES EXISTING PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...STRATIFICATION IMPACTS OVER MARINE ZONES AND IMMEDIATE
COAST SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE IN
THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PROG TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A
SLIGHT INVERSION AROUND H7...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HEIGHTS ON MON MAY LEAD TO AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. PWATS LOWER EVEN FURTHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WIND PROFILE BECOMES NORTHERLY FROM H8 AND
ABOVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FURTHER. LIGHT NE SFC FLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEFORE
GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS THROUGH MID WEEK /ESPECIALLY FOR MAX
TEMPS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  74  95  74  /  30  30  20  20  20
VICTORIA          74  91  73  95  73  /  30  30  10  10  10
LAREDO            79  97  78 100  78  /  30  30  20  10  10
ALICE             76  94  74  97  73  /  30  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  89  78  91  77  /  30  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           77  94  75  98  74  /  30  30  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  74  97  74  /  30  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  88  78  91  78  /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011848
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
148 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMIANTE VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING YET SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NRN SECTIONS. A TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATE MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281. BRIEF ISOLD SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRG THE MID/LATE MORNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST
LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND VCT...WITH ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT FOR CRP-ALI-LRD LATER WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING.
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT AT VCT LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR
STRATUS THIS MORNING SHOULD TRANSITION TO VFR THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE WEAK FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES FURTHER SOUTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STILL A CHALLENGE WITH RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS NOT DEEP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WITH THIS SAID...DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE POPS ANY
FURTHER KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. HOWEVER DID KEEP HIGHER
CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY
REMAINS GREATEST AND H85 AND H7 TEMPS COOL THE MOST. WOULD
EXPECTED AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA GENERALLY DURING
THE MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WRF-
4KM MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN THIS SAME TREND WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE
MINOR TWEAKS STAYING BELOW PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE YET KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 90S AREA-WIDE.
INCREASE MOISTURE DEPTH AND OMEGA COME INTO PLAY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS KEPT CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR. THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL EXIST AS STORM FLOW WILL BE SLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR SOUTH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES ACROSS THE REGION. BOUNDARY IS PROG TO
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIP
CHANCES EXISTING PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...STRATIFICATION IMPACTS OVER MARINE ZONES AND IMMEDIATE
COAST SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE IN
THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PROG TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A
SLIGHT INVERSION AROUND H7...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HEIGHTS ON MON MAY LEAD TO AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. PWATS LOWER EVEN FURTHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WIND PROFILE BECOMES NORTHERLY FROM H8 AND
ABOVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FURTHER. LIGHT NE SFC FLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEFORE
GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS THROUGH MID WEEK /ESPECIALLY FOR MAX
TEMPS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  74  95  74  /  30  30  20  20  20
VICTORIA          74  91  73  95  73  /  30  30  10  10  10
LAREDO            79  97  78 100  78  /  30  30  20  10  10
ALICE             76  94  74  97  73  /  30  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  89  78  91  77  /  30  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           77  94  75  98  74  /  30  30  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  74  97  74  /  30  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  88  78  91  78  /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011848
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
148 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMIANTE VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING YET SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NRN SECTIONS. A TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATE MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281. BRIEF ISOLD SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRG THE MID/LATE MORNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST
LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND VCT...WITH ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT FOR CRP-ALI-LRD LATER WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING.
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT AT VCT LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR
STRATUS THIS MORNING SHOULD TRANSITION TO VFR THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE WEAK FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES FURTHER SOUTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STILL A CHALLENGE WITH RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS NOT DEEP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WITH THIS SAID...DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE POPS ANY
FURTHER KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. HOWEVER DID KEEP HIGHER
CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY
REMAINS GREATEST AND H85 AND H7 TEMPS COOL THE MOST. WOULD
EXPECTED AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA GENERALLY DURING
THE MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WRF-
4KM MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN THIS SAME TREND WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE
MINOR TWEAKS STAYING BELOW PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE YET KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 90S AREA-WIDE.
INCREASE MOISTURE DEPTH AND OMEGA COME INTO PLAY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS KEPT CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR. THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL EXIST AS STORM FLOW WILL BE SLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR SOUTH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES ACROSS THE REGION. BOUNDARY IS PROG TO
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIP
CHANCES EXISTING PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...STRATIFICATION IMPACTS OVER MARINE ZONES AND IMMEDIATE
COAST SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE IN
THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PROG TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A
SLIGHT INVERSION AROUND H7...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HEIGHTS ON MON MAY LEAD TO AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. PWATS LOWER EVEN FURTHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WIND PROFILE BECOMES NORTHERLY FROM H8 AND
ABOVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FURTHER. LIGHT NE SFC FLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEFORE
GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS THROUGH MID WEEK /ESPECIALLY FOR MAX
TEMPS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  74  95  74  /  30  30  20  20  20
VICTORIA          74  91  73  95  73  /  30  30  10  10  10
LAREDO            79  97  78 100  78  /  30  30  20  10  10
ALICE             76  94  74  97  73  /  30  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  89  78  91  77  /  30  30  20  20  20
COTULLA           77  94  75  98  74  /  30  30  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  74  97  74  /  30  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  88  78  91  78  /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KBRO 011804
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
104 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
VFR CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING REMAINING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WEAK
BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH MOVES SOUTH LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WOULD BE IN THE EVENING. DID NOT
MENTION ANY SHRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
OVER NORTHERN GULF COAST MOVED INTO THE AREA EARLIER LIMITING ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNSET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWA. DEVELOPING LATE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS MAY PRESENT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS HOWEVER. A WEAK
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY
BUT MOST POTENTIAL CONVECTION FOR THE DAY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
LOWER VALLEY. PWAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES TODAY
IN THE LOWER VALLEY...AND WHATEVER CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO POP
UP WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THUS...LOOKING FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AN EYE ON A POSSIBLE
WEAK SEA BREEZE OR SOME LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DROPPING
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY PUSH
SOUTH INTO THE CWA...BUT MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY TODAY. A WEAK SEA BREEZE
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TODAY...AND ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE...COUPLED WITH FRONTAL RELATED CONVECTION...HAS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SUSTAINING ITSELF FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE  NORMAL WITH AMPLE SUN...FILTERED ONLY SLIGHTLY BY MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...
WITH LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL
WEAKENING AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

THE BIG QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT WILL CONVECTION FLARE UP ON
SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT STILL DRAPED ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM AN INCH AND A HALF SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY TO AROUND TWO INCHES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...CERTAINLY
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED WORDING NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS DUE TO LACK OF A STRONG GRADIENT
WILL ALSO NOT INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT....WHICH COULD PLAY
INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT. KEPT THE PREVIOUS THINKING ALIVE IN THE INHERITED FORECAST
ALBEIT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERALL SATURDAY. RAIN
FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD PATTERN WITH SOME LIMITATIONS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...KEPT
RAIN CHANCES ABOVE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY AND HOT BACK
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SUNDAY...FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A JET MAX ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AIDING IN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 TO 500MB
WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND 850MB MELDING INTO BROAD CONVERGENCE
AND WHATS LEFT OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY REAL AIRMASS CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING FROM THE NORTHEASTERLY PUSH SHOULD AID IN PROVIDING A FAIR
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 850-700MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHES 70 TO 80 PCT IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER
WEAK DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM 300 TO 500 MB.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TOTAL INSTABILITY ARE THE ONLY REAL
LIMITING FACTORS AND THAT MAY KEEP TOTAL UPDRAFTS AND PRECIP
COVERAGE LIMITED. DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES OF 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES ON
SUNDAY SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. LIGHT AMBIENT SFC WINDS OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO AID IN DEVELOPING A STRONGER SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH MAY FURTHER AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WENT WITH 30 PCT
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HAL OF THE CWA INCLUDING THE VALLEY...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT APPEARS WARRANTED GIVEN THE
SIGNAL AND THE VALLEYS HISTORY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW EVENTS.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK OFF AND STRETCH
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHIFTS 850/700MB
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. WEAK DCVA
CONTINUES WITH WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY RIDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW AT LEAST A LITTLE
BIT OF DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE 700MB LEVEL FROM AIR THAT HAS
PREVIOUSLY SUBSIDED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT FLOW WILL
AGAIN PROVIDE A GOOD SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. OVERALL 850-700MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH AND APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A 20 TO 30 PCT
CHANCE OF RAIN...30 PCT IN THE VALLEY...IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AGAIN HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT WE HAVE GOOD RH AND WIND
PROFILE FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION AND AN ADDED PUSH WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND NEARBY UPPER LOW. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIPITATION
OUTPUTS ALSO SHOW MORE ACTIVITY THAN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY SEES SIMILAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY MORE DRY AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE EAST AND LOWER LEVEL RH DROPS A BIT BUT BOTH GFS AND
ESPECIALLY ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWEST AND
GIVING THE AREA BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT. FEEL LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS DAY BUT DID AGAIN INCLUDE A 30 PCT AFTERNOON POP IN THE
FORECAST. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND PERSISTENT POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AGAIN THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO THE ODDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL FAVORABLE FACTORS AS WELL.

BEGAN TO STEP DOWN THE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
RIDGING INCREASES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF HOLDS ONTO STRONGER
MID LEVEL TROUGHING WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO POSSIBLY
ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES BUT LEANED WITH GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES DRIER
APPROACH WHICH HAS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. STILL ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO EEK OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
BUT DOWN FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF MID GULF RIDGING
RETURNING...A DRIER OVERALL COLUMN AND A RESURGENCE OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED
FORECAST IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL SIGNAL WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 105 WEST 95/98 COASTAL TREND SEEN FOR
MUCH OF THE SUMMER. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A FLAT PRESSURE FIELD COVERS THE
NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING
EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS
UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
ONLY POTENTIAL PITFALL FOR MARINERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
LIKELY TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS ON THE LAGUNA IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH MORE MODERATE CONDITONS AND MODERATE SEAS ON THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/64







000
FXUS64 KBRO 011804
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
104 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
VFR CONDITIONS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING REMAINING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WEAK
BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH MOVES SOUTH LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WOULD BE IN THE EVENING. DID NOT
MENTION ANY SHRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
OVER NORTHERN GULF COAST MOVED INTO THE AREA EARLIER LIMITING ANY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SUNSET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWA. DEVELOPING LATE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS MAY PRESENT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS HOWEVER. A WEAK
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY
BUT MOST POTENTIAL CONVECTION FOR THE DAY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
LOWER VALLEY. PWAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES TODAY
IN THE LOWER VALLEY...AND WHATEVER CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO POP
UP WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THUS...LOOKING FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AN EYE ON A POSSIBLE
WEAK SEA BREEZE OR SOME LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DROPPING
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY PUSH
SOUTH INTO THE CWA...BUT MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY TODAY. A WEAK SEA BREEZE
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TODAY...AND ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE...COUPLED WITH FRONTAL RELATED CONVECTION...HAS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SUSTAINING ITSELF FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE  NORMAL WITH AMPLE SUN...FILTERED ONLY SLIGHTLY BY MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...
WITH LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL
WEAKENING AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

THE BIG QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT WILL CONVECTION FLARE UP ON
SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT STILL DRAPED ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM AN INCH AND A HALF SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY TO AROUND TWO INCHES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...CERTAINLY
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED WORDING NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS DUE TO LACK OF A STRONG GRADIENT
WILL ALSO NOT INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT....WHICH COULD PLAY
INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT. KEPT THE PREVIOUS THINKING ALIVE IN THE INHERITED FORECAST
ALBEIT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERALL SATURDAY. RAIN
FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD PATTERN WITH SOME LIMITATIONS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...KEPT
RAIN CHANCES ABOVE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY AND HOT BACK
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SUNDAY...FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A JET MAX ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AIDING IN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 TO 500MB
WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND 850MB MELDING INTO BROAD CONVERGENCE
AND WHATS LEFT OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY REAL AIRMASS CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING FROM THE NORTHEASTERLY PUSH SHOULD AID IN PROVIDING A FAIR
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 850-700MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHES 70 TO 80 PCT IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER
WEAK DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM 300 TO 500 MB.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TOTAL INSTABILITY ARE THE ONLY REAL
LIMITING FACTORS AND THAT MAY KEEP TOTAL UPDRAFTS AND PRECIP
COVERAGE LIMITED. DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES OF 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES ON
SUNDAY SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. LIGHT AMBIENT SFC WINDS OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO AID IN DEVELOPING A STRONGER SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH MAY FURTHER AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WENT WITH 30 PCT
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HAL OF THE CWA INCLUDING THE VALLEY...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT APPEARS WARRANTED GIVEN THE
SIGNAL AND THE VALLEYS HISTORY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW EVENTS.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK OFF AND STRETCH
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHIFTS 850/700MB
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. WEAK DCVA
CONTINUES WITH WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY RIDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW AT LEAST A LITTLE
BIT OF DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE 700MB LEVEL FROM AIR THAT HAS
PREVIOUSLY SUBSIDED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT FLOW WILL
AGAIN PROVIDE A GOOD SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. OVERALL 850-700MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH AND APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A 20 TO 30 PCT
CHANCE OF RAIN...30 PCT IN THE VALLEY...IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AGAIN HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT WE HAVE GOOD RH AND WIND
PROFILE FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION AND AN ADDED PUSH WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND NEARBY UPPER LOW. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIPITATION
OUTPUTS ALSO SHOW MORE ACTIVITY THAN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY SEES SIMILAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY MORE DRY AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE EAST AND LOWER LEVEL RH DROPS A BIT BUT BOTH GFS AND
ESPECIALLY ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWEST AND
GIVING THE AREA BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT. FEEL LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS DAY BUT DID AGAIN INCLUDE A 30 PCT AFTERNOON POP IN THE
FORECAST. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND PERSISTENT POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AGAIN THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO THE ODDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL FAVORABLE FACTORS AS WELL.

BEGAN TO STEP DOWN THE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
RIDGING INCREASES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF HOLDS ONTO STRONGER
MID LEVEL TROUGHING WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO POSSIBLY
ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES BUT LEANED WITH GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES DRIER
APPROACH WHICH HAS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. STILL ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO EEK OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
BUT DOWN FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF MID GULF RIDGING
RETURNING...A DRIER OVERALL COLUMN AND A RESURGENCE OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED
FORECAST IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL SIGNAL WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 105 WEST 95/98 COASTAL TREND SEEN FOR
MUCH OF THE SUMMER. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A FLAT PRESSURE FIELD COVERS THE
NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING
EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS
UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
ONLY POTENTIAL PITFALL FOR MARINERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
LIKELY TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS ON THE LAGUNA IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH MORE MODERATE CONDITONS AND MODERATE SEAS ON THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/64






000
FXUS64 KSJT 011750 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1250 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Increased POPs across southwest counties and tweaked temps and
sky cover to account for trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An area of light to moderate rain showers is spreading slowly
east across Crockett county early this afternoon. 12Z models have
done poorly depicting this area of precipitation, which appears to
have developed in an area of weak upper level divergence and weak
lift from a subtle disturbance over the Trans Pecos. Rain chances
were increased across southwest counties this afternoon, with the
best chance for rainfall across Crockett county. However, should
see an overall decrease in areal coverage through the late
afternoon hours. Also tweaked temps and sky cover to account for
trends. High temperature this afternoon will range from the mid
80s north, to around 90 degrees along the I-10 corridor.

&&

.Aviation...
/18Z TAFS/
For the first few hours of the forecast period, expect MVFR CIGS
across KABI and KBBD. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with
a scattered to broken cumulus field between 3-5 kft this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are moving east northeast
toward KSJT and KSOA terminals. There is some uncertainty
regarding how far east this activity will propagate. Based on
latest radar trends, it appears that convection will stay west of
the terminals, so will not mention at this time but will continue
to monitor. Expect light winds the next 24 hours.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
For the first few hours of the forecast period, expect MVFR CIGS
across KABI, and KBBD. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with
a scattered to broken cumulus field between 3-5 kft this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are moving east northeast
toward KSJT and KSOA terminals. There is some uncertainty
surrounding how far east these storm will propagate. It appears
convection will stay west of the terminals, so will not mention at
this time but will continue to monitor trends. Expect light winds
the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions expected at all sites through the next 24 hours.
We may see a few SCT afternoon clouds around 5000 feet, but
otherwise just SCT to BKN upper level clouds. Winds will remain
northeast at 10 knots or less through the next 24 hours. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Currently, the area is under weak northwest flow with an upper level
high centered south of Big Bend in northern Mexico. Weak upper level
shortwave energy continues to rotate northward around the upper
level high out of Mexico in southern New Mexico and Arizona. This is
resulting in continued thunderstorm development to our west. This
ridge will move very little over the next day or so. The cold front
that moved through the area is currently along a line roughly from
Del Rio to San Antonio to Nacogdoches early this morning. The front
will remain south of our forecast area over the next 24 hours. For
our area that means another day of cooler than normal temperatures
and mainly dry weather. Although thunderstorms are expected again to
our west today into tonight, do not expect thunderstorms to impact
most of our area, and have kept only a slight chance mainly in
Crockett County today and tonight.

Highs will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s today with lows
from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

A slow warming trend is expected this weekend for our area. Rain
chances are practically non-mentionable, with the possible
exception of isolated showers and thunderstorms in parts of
western and southern Crockett County on Saturday.

The upper high will gradually expand across the central and
southern Rockies into the Rio Grande Valley this weekend. With a
surface high pressure ridge extending from the southern Great
Lakes southwest across the southern Plains, our winds will be from
the east to northeast this weekend into Monday. With wind speeds
dropping off during the overnight hours, radiational cooling will
allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 60s for lows on
Sunday and Monday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on
Saturday, and mostly in the lower 90s on Sunday.

The gradual warming trend will continue through the middle of
next week, with temperatures back to normal by midweek. Winds
will become southeast on Tuesday, and south with some increase in
speeds Wednesday and Thursday. Shortwave energy will weaken the
northern part of the upper high over the central Rockies, while
the southern portion remains anchored over New Mexico, West Texas,
and adjacent northern Mexico.

Late next week, the 00Z GFS and ECMWF have backed off with the
arrival of a cold front from the north. Both models now have the
front stalling well north of our area. With the uncertainty on
Day 7 and on which way the models will subsequently trend, have
kept a slight chance PoP for our far northern counties next
Thursday and Thursday night. If the current model trend continues
however, will need to remove the PoPs.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  65  89  67  90 /   5   5   5   5   0
San Angelo  89  65  92  65  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
Junction  90  67  92  66  93 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 011750 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1250 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Increased POPs across southwest counties and tweaked temps and
sky cover to account for trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An area of light to moderate rain showers is spreading slowly
east across Crockett county early this afternoon. 12Z models have
done poorly depicting this area of precipitation, which appears to
have developed in an area of weak upper level divergence and weak
lift from a subtle disturbance over the Trans Pecos. Rain chances
were increased across southwest counties this afternoon, with the
best chance for rainfall across Crockett county. However, should
see an overall decrease in areal coverage through the late
afternoon hours. Also tweaked temps and sky cover to account for
trends. High temperature this afternoon will range from the mid
80s north, to around 90 degrees along the I-10 corridor.

&&

.Aviation...
/18Z TAFS/
For the first few hours of the forecast period, expect MVFR CIGS
across KABI and KBBD. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with
a scattered to broken cumulus field between 3-5 kft this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are moving east northeast
toward KSJT and KSOA terminals. There is some uncertainty
regarding how far east this activity will propagate. Based on
latest radar trends, it appears that convection will stay west of
the terminals, so will not mention at this time but will continue
to monitor. Expect light winds the next 24 hours.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
For the first few hours of the forecast period, expect MVFR CIGS
across KABI, and KBBD. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with
a scattered to broken cumulus field between 3-5 kft this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are moving east northeast
toward KSJT and KSOA terminals. There is some uncertainty
surrounding how far east these storm will propagate. It appears
convection will stay west of the terminals, so will not mention at
this time but will continue to monitor trends. Expect light winds
the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions expected at all sites through the next 24 hours.
We may see a few SCT afternoon clouds around 5000 feet, but
otherwise just SCT to BKN upper level clouds. Winds will remain
northeast at 10 knots or less through the next 24 hours. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Currently, the area is under weak northwest flow with an upper level
high centered south of Big Bend in northern Mexico. Weak upper level
shortwave energy continues to rotate northward around the upper
level high out of Mexico in southern New Mexico and Arizona. This is
resulting in continued thunderstorm development to our west. This
ridge will move very little over the next day or so. The cold front
that moved through the area is currently along a line roughly from
Del Rio to San Antonio to Nacogdoches early this morning. The front
will remain south of our forecast area over the next 24 hours. For
our area that means another day of cooler than normal temperatures
and mainly dry weather. Although thunderstorms are expected again to
our west today into tonight, do not expect thunderstorms to impact
most of our area, and have kept only a slight chance mainly in
Crockett County today and tonight.

Highs will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s today with lows
from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

A slow warming trend is expected this weekend for our area. Rain
chances are practically non-mentionable, with the possible
exception of isolated showers and thunderstorms in parts of
western and southern Crockett County on Saturday.

The upper high will gradually expand across the central and
southern Rockies into the Rio Grande Valley this weekend. With a
surface high pressure ridge extending from the southern Great
Lakes southwest across the southern Plains, our winds will be from
the east to northeast this weekend into Monday. With wind speeds
dropping off during the overnight hours, radiational cooling will
allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 60s for lows on
Sunday and Monday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on
Saturday, and mostly in the lower 90s on Sunday.

The gradual warming trend will continue through the middle of
next week, with temperatures back to normal by midweek. Winds
will become southeast on Tuesday, and south with some increase in
speeds Wednesday and Thursday. Shortwave energy will weaken the
northern part of the upper high over the central Rockies, while
the southern portion remains anchored over New Mexico, West Texas,
and adjacent northern Mexico.

Late next week, the 00Z GFS and ECMWF have backed off with the
arrival of a cold front from the north. Both models now have the
front stalling well north of our area. With the uncertainty on
Day 7 and on which way the models will subsequently trend, have
kept a slight chance PoP for our far northern counties next
Thursday and Thursday night. If the current model trend continues
however, will need to remove the PoPs.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  65  89  67  90 /   5   5   5   5   0
San Angelo  89  65  92  65  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
Junction  90  67  92  66  93 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 011750 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1250 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Increased POPs across southwest counties and tweaked temps and
sky cover to account for trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An area of light to moderate rain showers is spreading slowly
east across Crockett county early this afternoon. 12Z models have
done poorly depicting this area of precipitation, which appears to
have developed in an area of weak upper level divergence and weak
lift from a subtle disturbance over the Trans Pecos. Rain chances
were increased across southwest counties this afternoon, with the
best chance for rainfall across Crockett county. However, should
see an overall decrease in areal coverage through the late
afternoon hours. Also tweaked temps and sky cover to account for
trends. High temperature this afternoon will range from the mid
80s north, to around 90 degrees along the I-10 corridor.

&&

.Aviation...
/18Z TAFS/
For the first few hours of the forecast period, expect MVFR CIGS
across KABI and KBBD. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with
a scattered to broken cumulus field between 3-5 kft this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are moving east northeast
toward KSJT and KSOA terminals. There is some uncertainty
regarding how far east this activity will propagate. Based on
latest radar trends, it appears that convection will stay west of
the terminals, so will not mention at this time but will continue
to monitor. Expect light winds the next 24 hours.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
For the first few hours of the forecast period, expect MVFR CIGS
across KABI, and KBBD. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with
a scattered to broken cumulus field between 3-5 kft this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are moving east northeast
toward KSJT and KSOA terminals. There is some uncertainty
surrounding how far east these storm will propagate. It appears
convection will stay west of the terminals, so will not mention at
this time but will continue to monitor trends. Expect light winds
the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions expected at all sites through the next 24 hours.
We may see a few SCT afternoon clouds around 5000 feet, but
otherwise just SCT to BKN upper level clouds. Winds will remain
northeast at 10 knots or less through the next 24 hours. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Currently, the area is under weak northwest flow with an upper level
high centered south of Big Bend in northern Mexico. Weak upper level
shortwave energy continues to rotate northward around the upper
level high out of Mexico in southern New Mexico and Arizona. This is
resulting in continued thunderstorm development to our west. This
ridge will move very little over the next day or so. The cold front
that moved through the area is currently along a line roughly from
Del Rio to San Antonio to Nacogdoches early this morning. The front
will remain south of our forecast area over the next 24 hours. For
our area that means another day of cooler than normal temperatures
and mainly dry weather. Although thunderstorms are expected again to
our west today into tonight, do not expect thunderstorms to impact
most of our area, and have kept only a slight chance mainly in
Crockett County today and tonight.

Highs will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s today with lows
from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

A slow warming trend is expected this weekend for our area. Rain
chances are practically non-mentionable, with the possible
exception of isolated showers and thunderstorms in parts of
western and southern Crockett County on Saturday.

The upper high will gradually expand across the central and
southern Rockies into the Rio Grande Valley this weekend. With a
surface high pressure ridge extending from the southern Great
Lakes southwest across the southern Plains, our winds will be from
the east to northeast this weekend into Monday. With wind speeds
dropping off during the overnight hours, radiational cooling will
allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 60s for lows on
Sunday and Monday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on
Saturday, and mostly in the lower 90s on Sunday.

The gradual warming trend will continue through the middle of
next week, with temperatures back to normal by midweek. Winds
will become southeast on Tuesday, and south with some increase in
speeds Wednesday and Thursday. Shortwave energy will weaken the
northern part of the upper high over the central Rockies, while
the southern portion remains anchored over New Mexico, West Texas,
and adjacent northern Mexico.

Late next week, the 00Z GFS and ECMWF have backed off with the
arrival of a cold front from the north. Both models now have the
front stalling well north of our area. With the uncertainty on
Day 7 and on which way the models will subsequently trend, have
kept a slight chance PoP for our far northern counties next
Thursday and Thursday night. If the current model trend continues
however, will need to remove the PoPs.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  65  89  67  90 /   5   5   5   5   0
San Angelo  89  65  92  65  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
Junction  90  67  92  66  93 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 011750 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1250 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Increased POPs across southwest counties and tweaked temps and
sky cover to account for trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An area of light to moderate rain showers is spreading slowly
east across Crockett county early this afternoon. 12Z models have
done poorly depicting this area of precipitation, which appears to
have developed in an area of weak upper level divergence and weak
lift from a subtle disturbance over the Trans Pecos. Rain chances
were increased across southwest counties this afternoon, with the
best chance for rainfall across Crockett county. However, should
see an overall decrease in areal coverage through the late
afternoon hours. Also tweaked temps and sky cover to account for
trends. High temperature this afternoon will range from the mid
80s north, to around 90 degrees along the I-10 corridor.

&&

.Aviation...
/18Z TAFS/
For the first few hours of the forecast period, expect MVFR CIGS
across KABI and KBBD. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with
a scattered to broken cumulus field between 3-5 kft this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are moving east northeast
toward KSJT and KSOA terminals. There is some uncertainty
regarding how far east this activity will propagate. Based on
latest radar trends, it appears that convection will stay west of
the terminals, so will not mention at this time but will continue
to monitor. Expect light winds the next 24 hours.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
For the first few hours of the forecast period, expect MVFR CIGS
across KABI, and KBBD. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with
a scattered to broken cumulus field between 3-5 kft this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are moving east northeast
toward KSJT and KSOA terminals. There is some uncertainty
surrounding how far east these storm will propagate. It appears
convection will stay west of the terminals, so will not mention at
this time but will continue to monitor trends. Expect light winds
the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions expected at all sites through the next 24 hours.
We may see a few SCT afternoon clouds around 5000 feet, but
otherwise just SCT to BKN upper level clouds. Winds will remain
northeast at 10 knots or less through the next 24 hours. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Currently, the area is under weak northwest flow with an upper level
high centered south of Big Bend in northern Mexico. Weak upper level
shortwave energy continues to rotate northward around the upper
level high out of Mexico in southern New Mexico and Arizona. This is
resulting in continued thunderstorm development to our west. This
ridge will move very little over the next day or so. The cold front
that moved through the area is currently along a line roughly from
Del Rio to San Antonio to Nacogdoches early this morning. The front
will remain south of our forecast area over the next 24 hours. For
our area that means another day of cooler than normal temperatures
and mainly dry weather. Although thunderstorms are expected again to
our west today into tonight, do not expect thunderstorms to impact
most of our area, and have kept only a slight chance mainly in
Crockett County today and tonight.

Highs will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s today with lows
from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

A slow warming trend is expected this weekend for our area. Rain
chances are practically non-mentionable, with the possible
exception of isolated showers and thunderstorms in parts of
western and southern Crockett County on Saturday.

The upper high will gradually expand across the central and
southern Rockies into the Rio Grande Valley this weekend. With a
surface high pressure ridge extending from the southern Great
Lakes southwest across the southern Plains, our winds will be from
the east to northeast this weekend into Monday. With wind speeds
dropping off during the overnight hours, radiational cooling will
allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 60s for lows on
Sunday and Monday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on
Saturday, and mostly in the lower 90s on Sunday.

The gradual warming trend will continue through the middle of
next week, with temperatures back to normal by midweek. Winds
will become southeast on Tuesday, and south with some increase in
speeds Wednesday and Thursday. Shortwave energy will weaken the
northern part of the upper high over the central Rockies, while
the southern portion remains anchored over New Mexico, West Texas,
and adjacent northern Mexico.

Late next week, the 00Z GFS and ECMWF have backed off with the
arrival of a cold front from the north. Both models now have the
front stalling well north of our area. With the uncertainty on
Day 7 and on which way the models will subsequently trend, have
kept a slight chance PoP for our far northern counties next
Thursday and Thursday night. If the current model trend continues
however, will need to remove the PoPs.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  65  89  67  90 /   5   5   5   5   0
San Angelo  89  65  92  65  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
Junction  90  67  92  66  93 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 011745 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1245 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...IT APPEARS ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT OVER ERN NM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SLOWLY ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE DIAL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT FOG OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IS TRYING TO
MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THIS
FOG WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS AS WINDS ARE SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT MIGHT IMPACT KDHT. IF
IT DOES THERE WOULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AROUND
9Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.  LOW SHOWER POPS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT HAVE BEEN REDUCED FURTHER AND ARE NOW FOR FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS ONLY...WHERE LATE DAY VORTICITY MAXIMUM COULD CAUSE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR INVERTED SURFACE TROF.  COULD ALSO BE SOME DRIFT
OF SHOWERS INTO THIS AREA VIA NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

SATURDAY MORNING POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN
REMOVED...DUE TO EXPECTED LACK OF FORCING AND WEAK WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW.  CONTINUED DRY FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS.

ALTHOUGH LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AND EXPECTED LACK OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEAD US TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH MODERATE DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE...BUT WARM 500
MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ALL BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN PANHANDLES...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  LOW POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED
ALL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 25
PERCENT.  NO EXCESSIVE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 011745 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1245 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...IT APPEARS ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT OVER ERN NM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SLOWLY ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE DIAL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT FOG OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IS TRYING TO
MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THIS
FOG WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS AS WINDS ARE SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT MIGHT IMPACT KDHT. IF
IT DOES THERE WOULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AROUND
9Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.  LOW SHOWER POPS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT HAVE BEEN REDUCED FURTHER AND ARE NOW FOR FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS ONLY...WHERE LATE DAY VORTICITY MAXIMUM COULD CAUSE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR INVERTED SURFACE TROF.  COULD ALSO BE SOME DRIFT
OF SHOWERS INTO THIS AREA VIA NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

SATURDAY MORNING POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN
REMOVED...DUE TO EXPECTED LACK OF FORCING AND WEAK WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW.  CONTINUED DRY FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS.

ALTHOUGH LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AND EXPECTED LACK OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEAD US TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH MODERATE DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE...BUT WARM 500
MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ALL BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN PANHANDLES...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  LOW POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED
ALL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 25
PERCENT.  NO EXCESSIVE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHGX 011744
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT INTO VFR TERRITORY IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DIFFUSE WINDSHIFT/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THOUGH SOMEWHAT HARD TO FIND ON SFC PLOT...LOOKS TO BE
ROUGHLY SITUATED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. BASED ON SAT
IMAGERY ESTIMATES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS QUITE HIGH SOUTH OF I-10
WHERE SCT CELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED STRONG CELLS INCREASES LATER IN THE DAY AS
A WEAK SEABREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE COAST (THOUGH WON`T
MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND). AVIATION-WISE AND OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE NIGHT WHEN SOME PATCHY MVFR
CIGS REDEVELOP. KEPT VCTS`S GOING FROM HOBBY SOUTHWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. NCEP 4 KM WRF SUGGESTS CONVECTION POTENTIALLY
LASTING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR COAST & OFFSHORE. IT`S AN
OUTLIER, BUT DID DECENT JOB DEPICTING LAST NIGHTS TSTMS SO WILL
KEEP AN EYE OUT. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE FCST FOR THIS AFTN. AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY BUT THE WAIT MAY NOT
BE TOO LONG BEFORE THINGS GET GOING ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THE +2"PWS
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY..HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      89  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  90  73  92 /  40  30  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  78  89  78  89 /  50  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 011744
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LINGERING MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT INTO VFR TERRITORY IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DIFFUSE WINDSHIFT/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THOUGH SOMEWHAT HARD TO FIND ON SFC PLOT...LOOKS TO BE
ROUGHLY SITUATED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR. BASED ON SAT
IMAGERY ESTIMATES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS QUITE HIGH SOUTH OF I-10
WHERE SCT CELLS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED STRONG CELLS INCREASES LATER IN THE DAY AS
A WEAK SEABREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE COAST (THOUGH WON`T
MAKE IT VERY FAR INLAND). AVIATION-WISE AND OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE NIGHT WHEN SOME PATCHY MVFR
CIGS REDEVELOP. KEPT VCTS`S GOING FROM HOBBY SOUTHWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. NCEP 4 KM WRF SUGGESTS CONVECTION POTENTIALLY
LASTING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR COAST & OFFSHORE. IT`S AN
OUTLIER, BUT DID DECENT JOB DEPICTING LAST NIGHTS TSTMS SO WILL
KEEP AN EYE OUT. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE FCST FOR THIS AFTN. AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY BUT THE WAIT MAY NOT
BE TOO LONG BEFORE THINGS GET GOING ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THE +2"PWS
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY..HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      89  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  90  73  92 /  40  30  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  78  89  78  89 /  50  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 011724 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS TO CONTINUE LIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS BY
22Z. SKIES SHOULD GO SCT250 THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT KDAL COULD SEE
BKN022 10-15Z.

THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS AT ALL SITES NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.    75

&&

.UPDATE...
EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS TODAY
AND KEEP THICK CLOUDS IN PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE HEATING. MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 70S NOW AND WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A WARM UP. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF TEMPS ALONE FOR NOW.
WILL ALSO REMOVE THE MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG WORDING.   79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT USHERED IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
INTO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING... THE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND WAS PROVIDING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST REGION OF
THE STATE. FOR OUR AREA THOUGH...CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE
ONLY REMNANTS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A
RESULT OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
BUT THEY WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST DUE TO OUR PROXIMITY
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS WELL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE PLEASANT FOR THE AREA WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OVER THE
WEEKEND SO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 90S. BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO BEGIN NUDGING CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND YIELD A RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN TEMPERATURES SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY...TAPPING INTO THE
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BY MIDWEEK...ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF THE
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT THAT IS SHOWED IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE SHORTWAVE MAY
NOT GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND/OR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION PREVAILS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
FROM WHAT IS FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE WEEK.    AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  70  90  73  93 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              87  69  91  71  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             78  66  86  69  89 /  10   5  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            80  67  89  69  92 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  66  89  69  91 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  70  90  73  93 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           80  68  87  70  91 /  10   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  69  88  71  92 /  10  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            88  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  66  91  69  93 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 011724 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS TO CONTINUE LIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS BY
22Z. SKIES SHOULD GO SCT250 THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT KDAL COULD SEE
BKN022 10-15Z.

THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS AT ALL SITES NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.    75

&&

.UPDATE...
EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS TODAY
AND KEEP THICK CLOUDS IN PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE HEATING. MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 70S NOW AND WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A WARM UP. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF TEMPS ALONE FOR NOW.
WILL ALSO REMOVE THE MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG WORDING.   79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT USHERED IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
INTO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING... THE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND WAS PROVIDING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST REGION OF
THE STATE. FOR OUR AREA THOUGH...CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE
ONLY REMNANTS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A
RESULT OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
BUT THEY WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST DUE TO OUR PROXIMITY
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS WELL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE PLEASANT FOR THE AREA WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OVER THE
WEEKEND SO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 90S. BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO BEGIN NUDGING CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND YIELD A RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN TEMPERATURES SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY...TAPPING INTO THE
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BY MIDWEEK...ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF THE
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT THAT IS SHOWED IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE SHORTWAVE MAY
NOT GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND/OR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION PREVAILS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
FROM WHAT IS FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE WEEK.    AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  70  90  73  93 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              87  69  91  71  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             78  66  86  69  89 /  10   5  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            80  67  89  69  92 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  66  89  69  91 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  70  90  73  93 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           80  68  87  70  91 /  10   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  69  88  71  92 /  10  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            88  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  66  91  69  93 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 011724 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS TO CONTINUE LIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS BY
22Z. SKIES SHOULD GO SCT250 THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT KDAL COULD SEE
BKN022 10-15Z.

THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS AT ALL SITES NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.    75

&&

.UPDATE...
EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS TODAY
AND KEEP THICK CLOUDS IN PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE HEATING. MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 70S NOW AND WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A WARM UP. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF TEMPS ALONE FOR NOW.
WILL ALSO REMOVE THE MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG WORDING.   79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT USHERED IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
INTO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING... THE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND WAS PROVIDING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST REGION OF
THE STATE. FOR OUR AREA THOUGH...CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE
ONLY REMNANTS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A
RESULT OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
BUT THEY WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST DUE TO OUR PROXIMITY
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS WELL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE PLEASANT FOR THE AREA WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OVER THE
WEEKEND SO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 90S. BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO BEGIN NUDGING CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND YIELD A RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN TEMPERATURES SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY...TAPPING INTO THE
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BY MIDWEEK...ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF THE
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT THAT IS SHOWED IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE SHORTWAVE MAY
NOT GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND/OR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION PREVAILS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
FROM WHAT IS FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE WEEK.    AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  70  90  73  93 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              87  69  91  71  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             78  66  86  69  89 /  10   5  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            80  67  89  69  92 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  66  89  69  91 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  70  90  73  93 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           80  68  87  70  91 /  10   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  69  88  71  92 /  10  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            88  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  66  91  69  93 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 011724 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER EAST AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECTING MVFR
CIGS TO CONTINUE LIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS BY
22Z. SKIES SHOULD GO SCT250 THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT KDAL COULD SEE
BKN022 10-15Z.

THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WINDS AT ALL SITES NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.    75

&&

.UPDATE...
EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS TODAY
AND KEEP THICK CLOUDS IN PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE HEATING. MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 70S NOW AND WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A WARM UP. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF TEMPS ALONE FOR NOW.
WILL ALSO REMOVE THE MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG WORDING.   79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT USHERED IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
INTO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING... THE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND WAS PROVIDING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST REGION OF
THE STATE. FOR OUR AREA THOUGH...CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE
ONLY REMNANTS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A
RESULT OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
BUT THEY WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST DUE TO OUR PROXIMITY
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS WELL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE PLEASANT FOR THE AREA WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OVER THE
WEEKEND SO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 90S. BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO BEGIN NUDGING CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND YIELD A RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN TEMPERATURES SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY...TAPPING INTO THE
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BY MIDWEEK...ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF THE
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT THAT IS SHOWED IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE SHORTWAVE MAY
NOT GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND/OR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION PREVAILS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
FROM WHAT IS FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE WEEK.    AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  70  90  73  93 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              87  69  91  71  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             78  66  86  69  89 /  10   5  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            80  67  89  69  92 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  66  89  69  91 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  70  90  73  93 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           80  68  87  70  91 /  10   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  69  88  71  92 /  10  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            88  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  66  91  69  93 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KEWX 011721
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF AREA NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH
TAF PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SHWRS MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REST OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND KEPT MENTION OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER KAUS AND KSAT TOWARD
MORNING. DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP AT KDRT AS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
ISOLATED IN THAT AREA. WINDS PRIMARILY NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS NEXT 12 HRS...VEERING TO NORTHEAST AND EAST NEAR 10 KTS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH NOON TODAY.
MID LEVEL DRY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON
PUTTING A STOP TO ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT WANTS TO
DEVELOP...EXCEPT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS(NORTHERN PORTION OF CRP CFWA) IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT COASTAL
PLAINS AND WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TODAY`S HIGHS ONLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD FROM SAT AND SSF TO AUS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND STAY
THERE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. CIGS WILL AGAIN DROP TO MVFR AT
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH TO NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS EXTENDING
TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO. A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES
TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. AMPLE MOISTURE
WITH PWS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE LIFTED BY THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
SHORT-WAVES TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO WILL KEEP RAINS OUT OF
THOSE AREAS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES MAKES A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DRYING THE
AIRMASS WITH PWS FALLING BELOW 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FILLS. RAINS
ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH...
CAN NOT RULE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY WAVE PER THE ECMWF MOVES
WEST UNDER THE RIDGE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF I-35 ON THURSDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT LEVELING OFF BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO THE EASTERLY WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  72  90  73  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  69  90  70  94 /  10  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     92  71  90  72  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  70  88  70  93 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        89  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             93  73  92  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  71  91  72  93 /  20  10  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  74  91  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  74  92  73  95 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KEWX 011721
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF AREA NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH
TAF PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SHWRS MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REST OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND KEPT MENTION OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER KAUS AND KSAT TOWARD
MORNING. DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP AT KDRT AS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
ISOLATED IN THAT AREA. WINDS PRIMARILY NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS NEXT 12 HRS...VEERING TO NORTHEAST AND EAST NEAR 10 KTS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH NOON TODAY.
MID LEVEL DRY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON
PUTTING A STOP TO ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT WANTS TO
DEVELOP...EXCEPT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS(NORTHERN PORTION OF CRP CFWA) IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT COASTAL
PLAINS AND WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TODAY`S HIGHS ONLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD FROM SAT AND SSF TO AUS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND STAY
THERE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. CIGS WILL AGAIN DROP TO MVFR AT
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH TO NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS EXTENDING
TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO. A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES
TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. AMPLE MOISTURE
WITH PWS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE LIFTED BY THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
SHORT-WAVES TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO WILL KEEP RAINS OUT OF
THOSE AREAS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES MAKES A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DRYING THE
AIRMASS WITH PWS FALLING BELOW 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FILLS. RAINS
ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH...
CAN NOT RULE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY WAVE PER THE ECMWF MOVES
WEST UNDER THE RIDGE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF I-35 ON THURSDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT LEVELING OFF BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO THE EASTERLY WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  72  90  73  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  69  90  70  94 /  10  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     92  71  90  72  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  70  88  70  93 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        89  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             93  73  92  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  71  91  72  93 /  20  10  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  74  91  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  74  92  73  95 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KEWX 011721
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF AREA NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH
TAF PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SHWRS MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REST OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND KEPT MENTION OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER KAUS AND KSAT TOWARD
MORNING. DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP AT KDRT AS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
ISOLATED IN THAT AREA. WINDS PRIMARILY NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS NEXT 12 HRS...VEERING TO NORTHEAST AND EAST NEAR 10 KTS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH NOON TODAY.
MID LEVEL DRY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON
PUTTING A STOP TO ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT WANTS TO
DEVELOP...EXCEPT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS(NORTHERN PORTION OF CRP CFWA) IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT COASTAL
PLAINS AND WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TODAY`S HIGHS ONLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD FROM SAT AND SSF TO AUS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND STAY
THERE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. CIGS WILL AGAIN DROP TO MVFR AT
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH TO NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS EXTENDING
TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO. A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES
TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. AMPLE MOISTURE
WITH PWS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE LIFTED BY THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
SHORT-WAVES TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO WILL KEEP RAINS OUT OF
THOSE AREAS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES MAKES A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DRYING THE
AIRMASS WITH PWS FALLING BELOW 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FILLS. RAINS
ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH...
CAN NOT RULE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY WAVE PER THE ECMWF MOVES
WEST UNDER THE RIDGE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF I-35 ON THURSDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT LEVELING OFF BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO THE EASTERLY WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  72  90  73  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  69  90  70  94 /  10  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     92  71  90  72  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  70  88  70  93 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        89  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             93  73  92  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  71  91  72  93 /  20  10  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  74  91  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  74  92  73  95 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KEWX 011721
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF AREA NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH
TAF PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SHWRS MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REST OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND KEPT MENTION OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER KAUS AND KSAT TOWARD
MORNING. DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP AT KDRT AS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
ISOLATED IN THAT AREA. WINDS PRIMARILY NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10
KTS NEXT 12 HRS...VEERING TO NORTHEAST AND EAST NEAR 10 KTS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH NOON TODAY.
MID LEVEL DRY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON
PUTTING A STOP TO ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT WANTS TO
DEVELOP...EXCEPT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS(NORTHERN PORTION OF CRP CFWA) IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT COASTAL
PLAINS AND WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TODAY`S HIGHS ONLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD FROM SAT AND SSF TO AUS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND STAY
THERE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. CIGS WILL AGAIN DROP TO MVFR AT
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH TO NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS EXTENDING
TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO. A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES
TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. AMPLE MOISTURE
WITH PWS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE LIFTED BY THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
SHORT-WAVES TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO WILL KEEP RAINS OUT OF
THOSE AREAS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES MAKES A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DRYING THE
AIRMASS WITH PWS FALLING BELOW 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FILLS. RAINS
ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH...
CAN NOT RULE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY WAVE PER THE ECMWF MOVES
WEST UNDER THE RIDGE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF I-35 ON THURSDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT LEVELING OFF BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO THE EASTERLY WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  72  90  73  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  69  90  70  94 /  10  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     92  71  90  72  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  70  88  70  93 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        89  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             93  73  92  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  71  91  72  93 /  20  10  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  74  91  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  74  92  73  95 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KLUB 011716
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS LIGHT WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS VEER NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIGHTENING UP AND BECOMING MORE VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UNEVENTFUL NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS OFF THIS FIRST DAY OF AUGUST WITH
THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION THREAT CONFINED TO THE HIGHER RELIEF IN
NEW MEXICO. DESPITE MODEST NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW IN PLACE EARLY
THIS MORNING...A DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS WEST OF THE MESCALERO
RIDGE FAILED TO OVERCOME A WEDGE OF DRY MID-LEVEL FARTHER EAST.
THIS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ONLY BE REINFORCED TODAY AS AN EXTENSION
OF A 700MB RIDGE EXPANDS SOUTH FROM ERN COLORADO AND IN THE
PROCESS VEERS WINDS AT THIS LEVEL FROM NORTHWEST TO EAST. UPSHOT
OF THIS IS THAT ANY ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIP ORIGINATING IN NM
SHOULD BE HELD WEST OF THE STATE LINE THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SPUR WARMER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY AS
DEWPOINTS EASILY TUMBLE INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK. REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THE DECAYING EARLY A.M. STORMS NEAR ROSWELL SEEM ON
TRACK TO SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY OR SOONER...SO TEMPS WERE RAISED
ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES AREA WIDE TO SIDE A BIT CLOSER WITH THE WARMER
MET NUMBERS.

LONG TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT THAN NORTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HARD TO TELL HOW FAST TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER REALLY DEPARTS AS SURFACE
FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHS SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE IS PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE NOT TAKING
THE COLD FRONT FORECASTED FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AS FAR SOUTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND DPROG/DT PRODUCTS SHOW CONTINUED INCONSISTENCIES
ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT. FLOW ALOFT DOES TRANSITION BACK
TO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE OVER THE REGION OR FOR STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
LEAVE POPS IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH NO CHANCES
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  78  59  81  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  80  61  83  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  80  61  82  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     61  81  65  83  63 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  81  65  83  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   64  84  64  85  62 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    63  84  65  85  63 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     65  87  67  87  67 /   0  10  10   0   0
SPUR          64  85  66  86  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     66  87  67  90  67 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 011716
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS AS LIGHT WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS VEER NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIGHTENING UP AND BECOMING MORE VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UNEVENTFUL NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS OFF THIS FIRST DAY OF AUGUST WITH
THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION THREAT CONFINED TO THE HIGHER RELIEF IN
NEW MEXICO. DESPITE MODEST NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW IN PLACE EARLY
THIS MORNING...A DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS WEST OF THE MESCALERO
RIDGE FAILED TO OVERCOME A WEDGE OF DRY MID-LEVEL FARTHER EAST.
THIS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ONLY BE REINFORCED TODAY AS AN EXTENSION
OF A 700MB RIDGE EXPANDS SOUTH FROM ERN COLORADO AND IN THE
PROCESS VEERS WINDS AT THIS LEVEL FROM NORTHWEST TO EAST. UPSHOT
OF THIS IS THAT ANY ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIP ORIGINATING IN NM
SHOULD BE HELD WEST OF THE STATE LINE THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SPUR WARMER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY AS
DEWPOINTS EASILY TUMBLE INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK. REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THE DECAYING EARLY A.M. STORMS NEAR ROSWELL SEEM ON
TRACK TO SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY OR SOONER...SO TEMPS WERE RAISED
ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES AREA WIDE TO SIDE A BIT CLOSER WITH THE WARMER
MET NUMBERS.

LONG TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT THAN NORTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HARD TO TELL HOW FAST TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER REALLY DEPARTS AS SURFACE
FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHS SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE IS PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE NOT TAKING
THE COLD FRONT FORECASTED FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AS FAR SOUTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND DPROG/DT PRODUCTS SHOW CONTINUED INCONSISTENCIES
ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT. FLOW ALOFT DOES TRANSITION BACK
TO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE OVER THE REGION OR FOR STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
LEAVE POPS IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH NO CHANCES
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  78  59  81  61 /  10  10  10  10   0
TULIA         61  80  61  83  62 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  80  61  82  63 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     61  81  65  83  63 /   0  10  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       63  81  65  83  65 /   0  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   64  84  64  85  62 /  10  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    63  84  65  85  63 /   0  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     65  87  67  87  67 /   0  10  10   0   0
SPUR          64  85  66  86  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     66  87  67  90  67 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31






000
FXUS64 KMAF 011713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
At 17Z a dissipating patch of light rain remained near CNM.
Another larger area of rain was located just east of FST, moving
east. A decreasing trend in precipitation will continue into
early afternoon with area terminals starting out VFR with no
significant precipitation. During the afternoon, heating will
allow mainly isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms
mainly west of a line from HOB to FST, particularly in the
mountain areas. Area terminals will remain VFR through the
afternoon.

Overnight and into Saturday morning, areas of rain and
thunderstorms are expected to develop mainly in the mountain
areas,moving into the adjacent plains, potentially affecting CNM
and PEQ overnight. Will include PROB30 at these terminals this
evening with chances too low to include in forecasts during
the overnight. Conditions are expected to remain VFR across
southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas terminals through 18Z
Saturday with winds generally northeast to east at less than 12
knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

UPDATE...
Introducing slight to chance rain probabilities into the Permian
Basin. Temperatures lowered across much of region.

DISCUSSION...
This morning, a large area of rain remained over the higher terrain
of southwest Texas. An area of showers and thunderstorms also
began developing eastward into the southern Permian Basin in
an area of weak divergence aloft and elevated instability. These
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop
over the southern Permian Basin and upper trans-Pecos through
the morning hours. Cloud cover along with the additional rainfall
across the area are expected to keep temperatures slightly cooler
than previously forecast. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
mainly over the mountains and trans-Pecos.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning/early afternoon, w/bases 4-8 kft agl. Best chances of
convection will be west, where upslope effects will be pronounced.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KMAF 011713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
At 17Z a dissipating patch of light rain remained near CNM.
Another larger area of rain was located just east of FST, moving
east. A decreasing trend in precipitation will continue into
early afternoon with area terminals starting out VFR with no
significant precipitation. During the afternoon, heating will
allow mainly isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms
mainly west of a line from HOB to FST, particularly in the
mountain areas. Area terminals will remain VFR through the
afternoon.

Overnight and into Saturday morning, areas of rain and
thunderstorms are expected to develop mainly in the mountain
areas,moving into the adjacent plains, potentially affecting CNM
and PEQ overnight. Will include PROB30 at these terminals this
evening with chances too low to include in forecasts during
the overnight. Conditions are expected to remain VFR across
southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas terminals through 18Z
Saturday with winds generally northeast to east at less than 12
knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

UPDATE...
Introducing slight to chance rain probabilities into the Permian
Basin. Temperatures lowered across much of region.

DISCUSSION...
This morning, a large area of rain remained over the higher terrain
of southwest Texas. An area of showers and thunderstorms also
began developing eastward into the southern Permian Basin in
an area of weak divergence aloft and elevated instability. These
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop
over the southern Permian Basin and upper trans-Pecos through
the morning hours. Cloud cover along with the additional rainfall
across the area are expected to keep temperatures slightly cooler
than previously forecast. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
mainly over the mountains and trans-Pecos.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning/early afternoon, w/bases 4-8 kft agl. Best chances of
convection will be west, where upslope effects will be pronounced.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KFWD 011612
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1112 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS TODAY
AND KEEP THICK CLOUDS IN PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE HEATING. MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 70S NOW AND WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A WARM UP. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF TEMPS ALONE FOR NOW.
WILL ALSO REMOVE THE MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG WORDING.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 653 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
MORNING CIGS ONLY CONCERN AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. WILL HAVE SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS 12-15Z BEFORE
MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY AFTN. VFR EXPECTED THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

80


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT USHERED IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
INTO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING... THE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND WAS PROVIDING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST REGION OF
THE STATE. FOR OUR AREA THOUGH...CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE
ONLY REMNANTS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A
RESULT OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
BUT THEY WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST DUE TO OUR PROXIMITY
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS WELL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE PLEASANT FOR THE AREA WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OVER THE
WEEKEND SO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 90S. BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO BEGIN NUDGING CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND YIELD A RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN TEMPERATURES SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY...TAPPING INTO THE
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BY MIDWEEK...ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF THE
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT THAT IS SHOWED IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE SHORTWAVE MAY
NOT GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND/OR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION PREVAILS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
FROM WHAT IS FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

AJS




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  70  90  73  93 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              88  69  91  71  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             78  66  86  69  89 /  10   5  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            80  67  89  69  92 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  66  89  69  91 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  70  90  73  93 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           80  68  87  70  91 /  10   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  69  88  71  92 /  10  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            91  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  66  91  69  93 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 011612
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1112 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
EXTENSIVE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS TODAY
AND KEEP THICK CLOUDS IN PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE HEATING. MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 70S NOW AND WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A WARM UP. HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF TEMPS ALONE FOR NOW.
WILL ALSO REMOVE THE MORNING DRIZZLE/FOG WORDING.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 653 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
MORNING CIGS ONLY CONCERN AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. WILL HAVE SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS 12-15Z BEFORE
MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY AFTN. VFR EXPECTED THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

80


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT USHERED IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
INTO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING... THE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND WAS PROVIDING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST REGION OF
THE STATE. FOR OUR AREA THOUGH...CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE
ONLY REMNANTS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A
RESULT OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
BUT THEY WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST DUE TO OUR PROXIMITY
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS WELL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE PLEASANT FOR THE AREA WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OVER THE
WEEKEND SO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 90S. BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO BEGIN NUDGING CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND YIELD A RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN TEMPERATURES SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY...TAPPING INTO THE
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BY MIDWEEK...ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF THE
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT THAT IS SHOWED IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE SHORTWAVE MAY
NOT GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND/OR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION PREVAILS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
FROM WHAT IS FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

AJS




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  70  90  73  93 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              88  69  91  71  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             78  66  86  69  89 /  10   5  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            80  67  89  69  92 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  66  89  69  91 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  70  90  73  93 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           80  68  87  70  91 /  10   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  69  88  71  92 /  10  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            91  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  66  91  69  93 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/79






000
FXUS64 KHGX 011600
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE FCST FOR THIS AFTN. AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY BUT THE WAIT MAY NOT
BE TOO LONG BEFORE THINGS GET GOING ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THE +2"PWS
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY..HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY AND FLOODING RAINFALL
IN/AROUND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR
WAY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL WITH
EARLIER STORMS ACROSS HARRIS COUNTY (VIA THE COUNTY`S FLOOD
WARNING SYSTEM) INCLUDED 5.68 INCHES IN 1 1/2 HOURS ON GREENS
BAYOU AT HIGHWAY 59...A 6.56 INCH TOTAL AT ALDINE WESTFIELD...AND
A 5.40 INCH TOTAL AT I-45 AND WEST ROAD. AT ONE POINT...HOURLY
RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 4 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE BELTWAY 8 AND
HIGHWAY 59 AREA. CURRENTLY...STORM MERGERS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR MORE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SUNRISE MAINLY
BETWEEN HIGHWAY 59 AND THE COAST. WITH THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY...ANY DAYTIME HEATING AND
RECOVERY FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LOWER CHANCES
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE COAST. NEXT WEEK`S
WEATHER IS GOING TO DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR WEST. PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LOOK TO BE ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MAINLY
DAYTIME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      89  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  90  73  92 /  40  30  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  78  89  78  89 /  50  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 011600
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1100 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE FCST FOR THIS AFTN. AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY BUT THE WAIT MAY NOT
BE TOO LONG BEFORE THINGS GET GOING ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THE +2"PWS
AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY..HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY AND FLOODING RAINFALL
IN/AROUND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR
WAY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL WITH
EARLIER STORMS ACROSS HARRIS COUNTY (VIA THE COUNTY`S FLOOD
WARNING SYSTEM) INCLUDED 5.68 INCHES IN 1 1/2 HOURS ON GREENS
BAYOU AT HIGHWAY 59...A 6.56 INCH TOTAL AT ALDINE WESTFIELD...AND
A 5.40 INCH TOTAL AT I-45 AND WEST ROAD. AT ONE POINT...HOURLY
RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 4 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE BELTWAY 8 AND
HIGHWAY 59 AREA. CURRENTLY...STORM MERGERS ALONG WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR MORE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SUNRISE MAINLY
BETWEEN HIGHWAY 59 AND THE COAST. WITH THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY...ANY DAYTIME HEATING AND
RECOVERY FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE LOWER CHANCES
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE COAST. NEXT WEEK`S
WEATHER IS GOING TO DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR WEST. PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LOOK TO BE ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MAINLY
DAYTIME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      89  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  90  73  92 /  40  30  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  78  89  78  89 /  50  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KEWX 011524 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1024 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH NOON TODAY.
MID LEVEL DRY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON
PUTTING A STOP TO ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT WANTS TO
DEVELOP...EXCEPT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS(NORTHERN PORTION OF CRP CFWA) IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT COASTAL
PLAINS AND WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TODAY`S HIGHS ONLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD FROM SAT AND SSF TO AUS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND STAY
THERE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. CIGS WILL AGAIN DROP TO MVFR AT
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH TO NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS EXTENDING
TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO. A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES
TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. AMPLE MOISTURE
WITH PWS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE LIFTED BY THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
SHORT-WAVES TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO WILL KEEP RAINS OUT OF
THOSE AREAS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES MAKES A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DRYING THE
AIRMASS WITH PWS FALLING BELOW 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FILLS. RAINS
ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH...
CAN NOT RULE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY WAVE PER THE ECMWF MOVES
WEST UNDER THE RIDGE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF I-35 ON THURSDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT LEVELING OFF BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO THE EASTERLY WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  72  90  73  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  69  90  70  94 /  10  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     92  71  90  72  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  70  88  70  93 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        89  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             93  73  92  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  71  91  72  93 /  20  10  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  74  91  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  74  92  73  95 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 011524 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1024 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH NOON TODAY.
MID LEVEL DRY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON
PUTTING A STOP TO ANY SHOWER OR STORM THAT WANTS TO
DEVELOP...EXCEPT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS(NORTHERN PORTION OF CRP CFWA) IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THAT COASTAL
PLAINS AND WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TODAY`S HIGHS ONLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD FROM SAT AND SSF TO AUS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND STAY
THERE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. CIGS WILL AGAIN DROP TO MVFR AT
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH TO NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS EXTENDING
TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO. A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES
TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. AMPLE MOISTURE
WITH PWS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE LIFTED BY THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
SHORT-WAVES TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO WILL KEEP RAINS OUT OF
THOSE AREAS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES MAKES A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DRYING THE
AIRMASS WITH PWS FALLING BELOW 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FILLS. RAINS
ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH...
CAN NOT RULE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY WAVE PER THE ECMWF MOVES
WEST UNDER THE RIDGE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF I-35 ON THURSDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT LEVELING OFF BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO THE EASTERLY WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  72  90  73  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  69  90  70  94 /  10  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     92  71  90  72  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  70  88  70  93 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        89  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             93  73  92  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  71  91  72  93 /  20  10  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  74  91  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  74  92  73  95 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KMAF 011247
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
747 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Introducing slight to chance rain probabilities into the Permian
Basin. Temperatures lowered across much of region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This morning, a large area of rain remained over the higher terrain
of southwest Texas. An area of showers and thunderstorms also
began developing eastward into the southern Permian Basin in
an area of weak divergence aloft and elevated instability. These
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop
over the southern Permian Basin and upper trans-Pecos through
the morning hours. Cloud cover along with the additional rainfall
across the area are expected to keep temperatures slightly cooler
than previously forecast. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
mainly over the mountains and trans-Pecos.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning/early afternoon, w/bases 4-8 kft agl. Best chances of
convection will be west, where upslope effects will be pronounced.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              89  67  88  68  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  65  86  68  /  50  50  40  20
DRYDEN TX                  92  74  91  73  /  40  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  68  88  68  /  30  30  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  60  80  65  /  70  60  60  30
HOBBS NM                   82  64  83  65  /  20  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   78  62  80  61  /  70  60  60  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    89  66  89  67  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
WINK TX                    92  69  93  69  /  20  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KMAF 011247
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
747 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Introducing slight to chance rain probabilities into the Permian
Basin. Temperatures lowered across much of region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This morning, a large area of rain remained over the higher terrain
of southwest Texas. An area of showers and thunderstorms also
began developing eastward into the southern Permian Basin in
an area of weak divergence aloft and elevated instability. These
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop
over the southern Permian Basin and upper trans-Pecos through
the morning hours. Cloud cover along with the additional rainfall
across the area are expected to keep temperatures slightly cooler
than previously forecast. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
mainly over the mountains and trans-Pecos.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning/early afternoon, w/bases 4-8 kft agl. Best chances of
convection will be west, where upslope effects will be pronounced.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              89  67  88  68  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  65  86  68  /  50  50  40  20
DRYDEN TX                  92  74  91  73  /  40  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  68  88  68  /  30  30  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  60  80  65  /  70  60  60  30
HOBBS NM                   82  64  83  65  /  20  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   78  62  80  61  /  70  60  60  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    89  66  89  67  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
WINK TX                    92  69  93  69  /  20  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KMAF 011247
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
747 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Introducing slight to chance rain probabilities into the Permian
Basin. Temperatures lowered across much of region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This morning, a large area of rain remained over the higher terrain
of southwest Texas. An area of showers and thunderstorms also
began developing eastward into the southern Permian Basin in
an area of weak divergence aloft and elevated instability. These
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop
over the southern Permian Basin and upper trans-Pecos through
the morning hours. Cloud cover along with the additional rainfall
across the area are expected to keep temperatures slightly cooler
than previously forecast. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
mainly over the mountains and trans-Pecos.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning/early afternoon, w/bases 4-8 kft agl. Best chances of
convection will be west, where upslope effects will be pronounced.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              89  67  88  68  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  65  86  68  /  50  50  40  20
DRYDEN TX                  92  74  91  73  /  40  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  68  88  68  /  30  30  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  60  80  65  /  70  60  60  30
HOBBS NM                   82  64  83  65  /  20  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   78  62  80  61  /  70  60  60  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    89  66  89  67  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
WINK TX                    92  69  93  69  /  20  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KMAF 011247
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
747 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Introducing slight to chance rain probabilities into the Permian
Basin. Temperatures lowered across much of region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This morning, a large area of rain remained over the higher terrain
of southwest Texas. An area of showers and thunderstorms also
began developing eastward into the southern Permian Basin in
an area of weak divergence aloft and elevated instability. These
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop
over the southern Permian Basin and upper trans-Pecos through
the morning hours. Cloud cover along with the additional rainfall
across the area are expected to keep temperatures slightly cooler
than previously forecast. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
mainly over the mountains and trans-Pecos.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning/early afternoon, w/bases 4-8 kft agl. Best chances of
convection will be west, where upslope effects will be pronounced.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              89  67  88  68  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  65  86  68  /  50  50  40  20
DRYDEN TX                  92  74  91  73  /  40  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  68  88  68  /  30  30  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  60  80  65  /  70  60  60  30
HOBBS NM                   82  64  83  65  /  20  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   78  62  80  61  /  70  60  60  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    89  66  89  67  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
WINK TX                    92  69  93  69  /  20  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 011153
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
MORNING CIGS ONLY CONCERN AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. WILL HAVE SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS 12-15Z BEFORE
MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY AFTN. VFR EXPECTED THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

80

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT USHERED IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
INTO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING... THE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND WAS PROVIDING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST REGION OF
THE STATE. FOR OUR AREA THOUGH...CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE
ONLY REMNANTS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A
RESULT OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
BUT THEY WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST DUE TO OUR PROXIMITY
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS WELL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE PLEASANT FOR THE AREA WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OVER THE
WEEKEND SO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 90S. BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO BEGIN NUDGING CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND YIELD A RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN TEMPERATURES SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY...TAPPING INTO THE
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BY MIDWEEK...ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF THE
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT THAT IS SHOWED IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE SHORTWAVE MAY
NOT GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND/OR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION PREVAILS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
FROM WHAT IS FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

AJS


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  70  90  73  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              88  69  91  71  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             78  66  86  69  89 /  10   5  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            80  67  89  69  92 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  66  89  69  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  70  90  73  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           80  68  87  70  91 /  10   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  69  88  71  92 /  10  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            91  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  66  91  69  93 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

80/





000
FXUS64 KFWD 011153
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
MORNING CIGS ONLY CONCERN AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. WILL HAVE SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS 12-15Z BEFORE
MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY AFTN. VFR EXPECTED THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

80

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT USHERED IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
INTO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING... THE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND WAS PROVIDING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST REGION OF
THE STATE. FOR OUR AREA THOUGH...CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE
ONLY REMNANTS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A
RESULT OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
BUT THEY WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST DUE TO OUR PROXIMITY
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS WELL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE PLEASANT FOR THE AREA WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OVER THE
WEEKEND SO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 90S. BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO BEGIN NUDGING CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND YIELD A RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN TEMPERATURES SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY...TAPPING INTO THE
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BY MIDWEEK...ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF THE
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT THAT IS SHOWED IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE SHORTWAVE MAY
NOT GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND/OR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION PREVAILS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
FROM WHAT IS FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

AJS


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  70  90  73  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              88  69  91  71  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             78  66  86  69  89 /  10   5  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            80  67  89  69  92 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  66  89  69  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  70  90  73  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           80  68  87  70  91 /  10   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  69  88  71  92 /  10  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            91  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  66  91  69  93 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

80/





000
FXUS64 KFWD 011153
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
MORNING CIGS ONLY CONCERN AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. WILL HAVE SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS 12-15Z BEFORE
MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY AFTN. VFR EXPECTED THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

80

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT USHERED IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
INTO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING... THE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND WAS PROVIDING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST REGION OF
THE STATE. FOR OUR AREA THOUGH...CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE
ONLY REMNANTS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A
RESULT OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
BUT THEY WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST DUE TO OUR PROXIMITY
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS WELL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE PLEASANT FOR THE AREA WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OVER THE
WEEKEND SO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 90S. BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO BEGIN NUDGING CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND YIELD A RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN TEMPERATURES SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY...TAPPING INTO THE
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BY MIDWEEK...ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF THE
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT THAT IS SHOWED IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE SHORTWAVE MAY
NOT GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND/OR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION PREVAILS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
FROM WHAT IS FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

AJS


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  70  90  73  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              88  69  91  71  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             78  66  86  69  89 /  10   5  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            80  67  89  69  92 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  66  89  69  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  70  90  73  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           80  68  87  70  91 /  10   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  69  88  71  92 /  10  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            91  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  66  91  69  93 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

80/





000
FXUS64 KFWD 011153
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
MORNING CIGS ONLY CONCERN AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. WILL HAVE SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS 12-15Z BEFORE
MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY AFTN. VFR EXPECTED THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

80

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT USHERED IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
INTO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING... THE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND WAS PROVIDING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST REGION OF
THE STATE. FOR OUR AREA THOUGH...CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE
ONLY REMNANTS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A
RESULT OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
BUT THEY WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST DUE TO OUR PROXIMITY
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS WELL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE PLEASANT FOR THE AREA WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OVER THE
WEEKEND SO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 90S. BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO BEGIN NUDGING CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND YIELD A RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN TEMPERATURES SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY...TAPPING INTO THE
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BY MIDWEEK...ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF THE
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT THAT IS SHOWED IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE SHORTWAVE MAY
NOT GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND/OR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION PREVAILS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
FROM WHAT IS FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

AJS


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  70  90  73  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              88  69  91  71  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             78  66  86  69  89 /  10   5  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            80  67  89  69  92 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  66  89  69  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  70  90  73  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           80  68  87  70  91 /  10   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  69  88  71  92 /  10  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            91  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  66  91  69  93 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

80/





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011148 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
648 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST
LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND VCT...WITH ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT FOR CRP-ALI-LRD LATER WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING.
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT AT VCT LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR
STRATUS THIS MORNING SHOULD TRANSITION TO VFR THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE WEAK FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STILL A CHALLENGE WITH RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS NOT DEEP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WITH THIS SAID...DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE POPS ANY
FURTHER KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. HOWEVER DID KEEP HIGHER
CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY
REMAINS GREATEST AND H85 AND H7 TEMPS COOL THE MOST. WOULD
EXPECTED AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA GENERALLY DURING
THE MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WRF-
4KM MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN THIS SAME TREND WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE
MINOR TWEAKS STAYING BELOW PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE YET KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 90S AREA-WIDE.
INCREASE MOISTURE DEPTH AND OMEGA COME INTO PLAY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS KEPT CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR. THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL EXIST AS STORM FLOW WILL BE SLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR SOUTH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES ACROSS THE REGION. BOUNDARY IS PROG TO
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIP
CHANCES EXISTING PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...STRATIFICATION IMPACTS OVER MARINE ZONES AND IMMEDIATE
COAST SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE IN
THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PROG TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A
SLIGHT INVERSION AROUND H7...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HEIGHTS ON MON MAY LEAD TO AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. PWATS LOWER EVEN FURTHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WIND PROFILE BECOMES NORTHERLY FROM H8 AND
ABOVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FURTHER. LIGHT NE SFC FLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEFORE
GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS THROUGH MID WEEK /ESPECIALLY FOR MAX
TEMPS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  76  93  74  95  /  30  30  30  20  20
VICTORIA          92  74  91  73  95  /  40  30  30  10  10
LAREDO           101  79  97  78 100  /  30  30  30  20  10
ALICE             96  76  94  74  97  /  30  30  30  10  10
ROCKPORT          86  78  89  78  91  /  40  30  30  20  20
COTULLA           96  77  94  75  98  /  30  30  30  10  10
KINGSVILLE        96  76  94  74  97  /  30  30  30  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       87  79  88  78  91  /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011148 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
648 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH A BIT MORE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST
LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AROUND VCT...WITH ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT FOR CRP-ALI-LRD LATER WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING.
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS EVENING BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
MAY HINDER DEVELOPMENT AT VCT LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MVFR/VFR
STRATUS THIS MORNING SHOULD TRANSITION TO VFR THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR IN AND AROUND ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE WEAK FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STILL A CHALLENGE WITH RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS NOT DEEP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WITH THIS SAID...DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE POPS ANY
FURTHER KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. HOWEVER DID KEEP HIGHER
CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY
REMAINS GREATEST AND H85 AND H7 TEMPS COOL THE MOST. WOULD
EXPECTED AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA GENERALLY DURING
THE MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WRF-
4KM MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN THIS SAME TREND WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE
MINOR TWEAKS STAYING BELOW PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE YET KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 90S AREA-WIDE.
INCREASE MOISTURE DEPTH AND OMEGA COME INTO PLAY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS KEPT CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR. THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL EXIST AS STORM FLOW WILL BE SLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR SOUTH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES ACROSS THE REGION. BOUNDARY IS PROG TO
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIP
CHANCES EXISTING PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...STRATIFICATION IMPACTS OVER MARINE ZONES AND IMMEDIATE
COAST SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE IN
THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PROG TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A
SLIGHT INVERSION AROUND H7...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HEIGHTS ON MON MAY LEAD TO AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. PWATS LOWER EVEN FURTHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WIND PROFILE BECOMES NORTHERLY FROM H8 AND
ABOVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FURTHER. LIGHT NE SFC FLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEFORE
GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS THROUGH MID WEEK /ESPECIALLY FOR MAX
TEMPS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  76  93  74  95  /  30  30  30  20  20
VICTORIA          92  74  91  73  95  /  40  30  30  10  10
LAREDO           101  79  97  78 100  /  30  30  30  20  10
ALICE             96  76  94  74  97  /  30  30  30  10  10
ROCKPORT          86  78  89  78  91  /  40  30  30  20  20
COTULLA           96  77  94  75  98  /  30  30  30  10  10
KINGSVILLE        96  76  94  74  97  /  30  30  30  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       87  79  88  78  91  /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KHGX 011138
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
638 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HEAVIEST WEATHER IS OVER WITH A LULL EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING. A NEAR-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LAYING WITHIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE COASTAL ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE NEEDED
LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO RE-GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORM(S). DUE TO THE RANDOM NATURE OF CONVECTIVE RE-
DEVELOPMENT...JUST GOING WITH VC THIS MORNING TO COMM THE RETURN
THREAT. SIMILAR SITUATION AS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW
GIVING WAY TO SLOW-MOVING STRONGEST CELLS/CLUSTERS TO PRODUCE HIGH
RAINFALL RATES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VISIBILITY-RESTRICTING HIGH
RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN ISSUES ONCE/IF CONVECTION RE-FIRES. PERIODS
OF MORNING MVFR...BRIEF IFR...WITH THE GENERAL TREND BECOMING VFR
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY AND FLOODING RAINFALL IN/AROUND
THE HOUSTON METRO AREA CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL WITH EARLIER STORMS ACROSS HARRIS
COUNTY (VIA THE COUNTY`S FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM) INCLUDED 5.68 INCHES
IN 1 1/2 HOURS ON GREENS BAYOU AT HIGHWAY 59...A 6.56 INCH TOTAL AT
ALDINE WESTFIELD...AND A 5.40 INCH TOTAL AT I-45 AND WEST ROAD. AT ONE
POINT...HOURLY RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 4 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE BELTWAY
8 AND HIGHWAY 59 AREA. CURRENTLY...STORM MERGERS ALONG WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SUNRISE MAINLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 59 AND THE
COAST. WITH THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TODAY...ANY DAYTIME HEATING AND RECOVERY FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS
WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
LOWER CHANCES NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE COAST. NEXT
WEEK`S WEATHER IS GOING TO DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR WEST. PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LOOK TO BE
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MAINLY
DAYTIME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 42

&&

MARINE...
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP NEAR THE COAST TODAY.
THIS NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RETURN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXCEPT WITHIN OR IN
THE VICINITY OF MARITIME STORMS WHERE WINDS AND SEAS COULD QUICKLY
BECOME DANGEROUS...GENERAL ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS
WILL BE VERY LOW AT OR UNDER TWO FEET. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      89  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  90  73  92 /  40  30  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  78  89  78  89 /  50  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 011138
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
638 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HEAVIEST WEATHER IS OVER WITH A LULL EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING. A NEAR-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LAYING WITHIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE COASTAL ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE NEEDED
LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO RE-GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORM(S). DUE TO THE RANDOM NATURE OF CONVECTIVE RE-
DEVELOPMENT...JUST GOING WITH VC THIS MORNING TO COMM THE RETURN
THREAT. SIMILAR SITUATION AS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW
GIVING WAY TO SLOW-MOVING STRONGEST CELLS/CLUSTERS TO PRODUCE HIGH
RAINFALL RATES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VISIBILITY-RESTRICTING HIGH
RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN ISSUES ONCE/IF CONVECTION RE-FIRES. PERIODS
OF MORNING MVFR...BRIEF IFR...WITH THE GENERAL TREND BECOMING VFR
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY AND FLOODING RAINFALL IN/AROUND
THE HOUSTON METRO AREA CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL WITH EARLIER STORMS ACROSS HARRIS
COUNTY (VIA THE COUNTY`S FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM) INCLUDED 5.68 INCHES
IN 1 1/2 HOURS ON GREENS BAYOU AT HIGHWAY 59...A 6.56 INCH TOTAL AT
ALDINE WESTFIELD...AND A 5.40 INCH TOTAL AT I-45 AND WEST ROAD. AT ONE
POINT...HOURLY RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 4 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE BELTWAY
8 AND HIGHWAY 59 AREA. CURRENTLY...STORM MERGERS ALONG WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SUNRISE MAINLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 59 AND THE
COAST. WITH THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TODAY...ANY DAYTIME HEATING AND RECOVERY FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS
WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
LOWER CHANCES NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE COAST. NEXT
WEEK`S WEATHER IS GOING TO DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR WEST. PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LOOK TO BE
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MAINLY
DAYTIME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 42

&&

MARINE...
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP NEAR THE COAST TODAY.
THIS NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RETURN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXCEPT WITHIN OR IN
THE VICINITY OF MARITIME STORMS WHERE WINDS AND SEAS COULD QUICKLY
BECOME DANGEROUS...GENERAL ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS
WILL BE VERY LOW AT OR UNDER TWO FEET. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      89  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  90  73  92 /  40  30  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  78  89  78  89 /  50  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 011138
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
638 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HEAVIEST WEATHER IS OVER WITH A LULL EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING. A NEAR-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LAYING WITHIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE COASTAL ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE NEEDED
LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO RE-GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORM(S). DUE TO THE RANDOM NATURE OF CONVECTIVE RE-
DEVELOPMENT...JUST GOING WITH VC THIS MORNING TO COMM THE RETURN
THREAT. SIMILAR SITUATION AS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW
GIVING WAY TO SLOW-MOVING STRONGEST CELLS/CLUSTERS TO PRODUCE HIGH
RAINFALL RATES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VISIBILITY-RESTRICTING HIGH
RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN ISSUES ONCE/IF CONVECTION RE-FIRES. PERIODS
OF MORNING MVFR...BRIEF IFR...WITH THE GENERAL TREND BECOMING VFR
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY AND FLOODING RAINFALL IN/AROUND
THE HOUSTON METRO AREA CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL WITH EARLIER STORMS ACROSS HARRIS
COUNTY (VIA THE COUNTY`S FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM) INCLUDED 5.68 INCHES
IN 1 1/2 HOURS ON GREENS BAYOU AT HIGHWAY 59...A 6.56 INCH TOTAL AT
ALDINE WESTFIELD...AND A 5.40 INCH TOTAL AT I-45 AND WEST ROAD. AT ONE
POINT...HOURLY RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 4 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE BELTWAY
8 AND HIGHWAY 59 AREA. CURRENTLY...STORM MERGERS ALONG WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SUNRISE MAINLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 59 AND THE
COAST. WITH THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TODAY...ANY DAYTIME HEATING AND RECOVERY FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS
WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
LOWER CHANCES NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE COAST. NEXT
WEEK`S WEATHER IS GOING TO DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR WEST. PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LOOK TO BE
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MAINLY
DAYTIME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 42

&&

MARINE...
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP NEAR THE COAST TODAY.
THIS NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RETURN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXCEPT WITHIN OR IN
THE VICINITY OF MARITIME STORMS WHERE WINDS AND SEAS COULD QUICKLY
BECOME DANGEROUS...GENERAL ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS
WILL BE VERY LOW AT OR UNDER TWO FEET. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      89  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  90  73  92 /  40  30  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  78  89  78  89 /  50  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 011138
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
638 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HEAVIEST WEATHER IS OVER WITH A LULL EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING. A NEAR-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LAYING WITHIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE COASTAL ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE NEEDED
LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO RE-GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORM(S). DUE TO THE RANDOM NATURE OF CONVECTIVE RE-
DEVELOPMENT...JUST GOING WITH VC THIS MORNING TO COMM THE RETURN
THREAT. SIMILAR SITUATION AS THIS MORNING WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW
GIVING WAY TO SLOW-MOVING STRONGEST CELLS/CLUSTERS TO PRODUCE HIGH
RAINFALL RATES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VISIBILITY-RESTRICTING HIGH
RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN ISSUES ONCE/IF CONVECTION RE-FIRES. PERIODS
OF MORNING MVFR...BRIEF IFR...WITH THE GENERAL TREND BECOMING VFR
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY AND FLOODING RAINFALL IN/AROUND
THE HOUSTON METRO AREA CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL WITH EARLIER STORMS ACROSS HARRIS
COUNTY (VIA THE COUNTY`S FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM) INCLUDED 5.68 INCHES
IN 1 1/2 HOURS ON GREENS BAYOU AT HIGHWAY 59...A 6.56 INCH TOTAL AT
ALDINE WESTFIELD...AND A 5.40 INCH TOTAL AT I-45 AND WEST ROAD. AT ONE
POINT...HOURLY RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 4 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE BELTWAY
8 AND HIGHWAY 59 AREA. CURRENTLY...STORM MERGERS ALONG WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SUNRISE MAINLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 59 AND THE
COAST. WITH THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TODAY...ANY DAYTIME HEATING AND RECOVERY FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS
WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
LOWER CHANCES NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE COAST. NEXT
WEEK`S WEATHER IS GOING TO DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR WEST. PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LOOK TO BE
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MAINLY
DAYTIME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 42

&&

MARINE...
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP NEAR THE COAST TODAY.
THIS NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RETURN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXCEPT WITHIN OR IN
THE VICINITY OF MARITIME STORMS WHERE WINDS AND SEAS COULD QUICKLY
BECOME DANGEROUS...GENERAL ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS
WILL BE VERY LOW AT OR UNDER TWO FEET. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      89  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  90  73  92 /  40  30  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  78  89  78  89 /  50  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KEWX 011135
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
635 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD FROM SAT AND SSF TO AUS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND STAY
THERE THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. CIGS WILL AGAIN DROP TO MVFR AT
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH TO NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS EXTENDING
TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO. A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES
TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. AMPLE MOISTURE
WITH PWS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE LIFTED BY THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
SHORT-WAVES TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO WILL KEEP RAINS OUT OF
THOSE AREAS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES MAKES A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DRYING THE
AIRMASS WITH PWS FALLING BELOW 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FILLS. RAINS
ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH...
CAN NOT RULE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY WAVE PER THE ECMWF MOVES
WEST UNDER THE RIDGE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF I-35 ON THURSDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT LEVELING OFF BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO THE EASTERLY WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  72  90  73  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  69  90  70  94 /  10  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     92  71  90  72  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  70  88  70  93 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        89  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             93  73  92  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  71  91  72  93 /  20  10  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  74  91  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  74  92  73  95 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KSJT 011130
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
630 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions expected at all sites through the next 24 hours.
We may see a few SCT afternoon clouds around 5000 feet, but
otherwise just SCT to BKN upper level clouds. Winds will remain
northeast at 10 knots or less through the next 24 hours. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Currently, the area is under weak northwest flow with an upper level
high centered south of Big Bend in northern Mexico. Weak upper level
shortwave energy continues to rotate northward around the upper
level high out of Mexico in southern New Mexico and Arizona. This is
resulting in continued thunderstorm development to our west. This
ridge will move very little over the next day or so. The cold front
that moved through the area is currently along a line roughly from
Del Rio to San Antonio to Nacogdoches early this morning. The front
will remain south of our forecast area over the next 24 hours. For
our area that means another day of cooler than normal temperatures
and mainly dry weather. Although thunderstorms are expected again to
our west today into tonight, do not expect thunderstorms to impact
most of our area, and have kept only a slight chance mainly in
Crockett County today and tonight.

Highs will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s today with lows
from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

A slow warming trend is expected this weekend for our area. Rain
chances are practically non-mentionable, with the possible
exception of isolated showers and thunderstorms in parts of
western and southern Crockett County on Saturday.

The upper high will gradually expand across the central and
southern Rockies into the Rio Grande Valley this weekend. With a
surface high pressure ridge extending from the southern Great
Lakes southwest across the southern Plains, our winds will be from
the east to northeast this weekend into Monday. With wind speeds
dropping off during the overnight hours, radiational cooling will
allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 60s for lows on
Sunday and Monday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on
Saturday, and mostly in the lower 90s on Sunday.

The gradual warming trend will continue through the middle of
next week, with temperatures back to normal by midweek. Winds
will become southeast on Tuesday, and south with some increase in
speeds Wednesday and Thursday. Shortwave energy will weaken the
northern part of the upper high over the central Rockies, while
the southern portion remains anchored over New Mexico, West Texas,
and adjacent northern Mexico.

Late next week, the 00Z GFS and ECMWF have backed off with the
arrival of a cold front from the north. Both models now have the
front stalling well north of our area. With the uncertainty on
Day 7 and on which way the models will subsequently trend, have
kept a slight chance PoP for our far northern counties next
Thursday and Thursday night. If the current model trend continues
however, will need to remove the PoPs.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  65  89  67  90 /   5   5   5   5   0
San Angelo  90  65  92  67  93 /   5  10  10   5   5
Junction  91  67  92  66  93 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 011130
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
630 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions expected at all sites through the next 24 hours.
We may see a few SCT afternoon clouds around 5000 feet, but
otherwise just SCT to BKN upper level clouds. Winds will remain
northeast at 10 knots or less through the next 24 hours. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Currently, the area is under weak northwest flow with an upper level
high centered south of Big Bend in northern Mexico. Weak upper level
shortwave energy continues to rotate northward around the upper
level high out of Mexico in southern New Mexico and Arizona. This is
resulting in continued thunderstorm development to our west. This
ridge will move very little over the next day or so. The cold front
that moved through the area is currently along a line roughly from
Del Rio to San Antonio to Nacogdoches early this morning. The front
will remain south of our forecast area over the next 24 hours. For
our area that means another day of cooler than normal temperatures
and mainly dry weather. Although thunderstorms are expected again to
our west today into tonight, do not expect thunderstorms to impact
most of our area, and have kept only a slight chance mainly in
Crockett County today and tonight.

Highs will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s today with lows
from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

A slow warming trend is expected this weekend for our area. Rain
chances are practically non-mentionable, with the possible
exception of isolated showers and thunderstorms in parts of
western and southern Crockett County on Saturday.

The upper high will gradually expand across the central and
southern Rockies into the Rio Grande Valley this weekend. With a
surface high pressure ridge extending from the southern Great
Lakes southwest across the southern Plains, our winds will be from
the east to northeast this weekend into Monday. With wind speeds
dropping off during the overnight hours, radiational cooling will
allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 60s for lows on
Sunday and Monday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on
Saturday, and mostly in the lower 90s on Sunday.

The gradual warming trend will continue through the middle of
next week, with temperatures back to normal by midweek. Winds
will become southeast on Tuesday, and south with some increase in
speeds Wednesday and Thursday. Shortwave energy will weaken the
northern part of the upper high over the central Rockies, while
the southern portion remains anchored over New Mexico, West Texas,
and adjacent northern Mexico.

Late next week, the 00Z GFS and ECMWF have backed off with the
arrival of a cold front from the north. Both models now have the
front stalling well north of our area. With the uncertainty on
Day 7 and on which way the models will subsequently trend, have
kept a slight chance PoP for our far northern counties next
Thursday and Thursday night. If the current model trend continues
however, will need to remove the PoPs.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  65  89  67  90 /   5   5   5   5   0
San Angelo  90  65  92  67  93 /   5  10  10   5   5
Junction  91  67  92  66  93 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLUB 011129
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
WESTERN EDGE OF LIGHT FOG AND MVFR VISBYS ACROSS SWRN OK AT 11Z
COULD THREATEN CDS BEFORE 14Z...BUT ATTM THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY SO
WILL OMIT TEMPO BR MENTION. EXPECT VFR WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
AT LBB AND CDS THRU 02/12Z. LGT/VRB WINDS EARLY THIS A.M. WILL
TREND NORTHERLY BEFORE NOON...THEN VEER NE THEREAFTER AND HOLD
AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UNEVENTFUL NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS OFF THIS FIRST DAY OF AUGUST WITH
THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION THREAT CONFINED TO THE HIGHER RELIEF IN
NEW MEXICO. DESPITE MODEST NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW IN PLACE EARLY
THIS MORNING...A DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS WEST OF THE MESCALERO
RIDGE FAILED TO OVERCOME A WEDGE OF DRY MID-LEVEL FARTHER EAST.
THIS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ONLY BE REINFORCED TODAY AS AN EXTENSION
OF A 700MB RIDGE EXPANDS SOUTH FROM ERN COLORADO AND IN THE
PROCESS VEERS WINDS AT THIS LEVEL FROM NORTHWEST TO EAST. UPSHOT
OF THIS IS THAT ANY ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIP ORIGINATING IN NM
SHOULD BE HELD WEST OF THE STATE LINE THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SPUR WARMER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY AS
DEWPOINTS EASILY TUMBLE INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK. REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THE DECAYING EARLY A.M. STORMS NEAR ROSWELL SEEM ON
TRACK TO SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY OR SOONER...SO TEMPS WERE RAISED
ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES AREA WIDE TO SIDE A BIT CLOSER WITH THE WARMER
MET NUMBERS.

LONG TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT THAN NORTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HARD TO TELL HOW FAST TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER REALLY DEPARTS AS SURFACE
FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHS SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE IS PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE NOT TAKING
THE COLD FRONT FORECASTED FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AS FAR SOUTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND DPROG/DT PRODUCTS SHOW CONTINUED INCONSISTENCIES
ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT. FLOW ALOFT DOES TRANSITION BACK
TO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE OVER THE REGION OR FOR STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
LEAVE POPS IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH NO CHANCES
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  61  78  59  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         85  61  80  61  83 /   0   0  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     84  62  80  61  82 /   0   0  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     84  61  81  65  83 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       86  63  81  65  83 /   0   0  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   84  64  84  64  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    86  63  84  65  85 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     87  65  87  67  87 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          88  64  85  66  86 /   0   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     88  66  87  67  90 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93






000
FXUS64 KBRO 011112 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
612 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWA. DEVELOPING LATE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS MAY PRESENT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS HOWEVER. A WEAK
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY
BUT MOST POTENTIAL CONVECTION FOR THE DAY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
LOWER VALLEY. PWAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES TODAY
IN THE LOWER VALLEY...AND WHATEVER CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO POP
UP WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THUS...LOOKING FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AN EYE ON A POSSIBLE
WEAK SEA BREEZE OR SOME LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DROPPING
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY PUSH
SOUTH INTO THE CWA...BUT MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY TODAY. A WEAK SEA BREEZE
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TODAY...AND ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE...COUPLED WITH FRONTAL RELATED CONVECTION...HAS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SUSTAINING ITSELF FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE  NORMAL WITH AMPLE SUN...FILTERED ONLY SLIGHTLY BY MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...
WITH LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL
WEAKENING AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

THE BIG QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT WILL CONVECTION FLARE UP ON
SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT STILL DRAPED ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM AN INCH AND A HALF SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY TO AROUND TWO INCHES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...CERTAINLY
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED WORDING NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS DUE TO LACK OF A STRONG GRADIENT
WILL ALSO NOT INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT....WHICH COULD PLAY
INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT. KEPT THE PREVIOUS THINKING ALIVE IN THE INHERITED FORECAST
ALBEIT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERALL SATURDAY. RAIN
FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD PATTERN WITH SOME LIMITATIONS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...KEPT
RAIN CHANCES ABOVE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY AND HOT BACK
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SUNDAY...FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A JET MAX ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AIDING IN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 TO 500MB
WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND 850MB MELDING INTO BROAD CONVERGENCE
AND WHATS LEFT OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY REAL AIRMASS CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING FROM THE NORTHEASTERLY PUSH SHOULD AID IN PROVIDING A FAIR
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 850-700MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHES 70 TO 80 PCT IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER
WEAK DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM 300 TO 500 MB.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TOTAL INSTABILITY ARE THE ONLY REAL
LIMITING FACTORS AND THAT MAY KEEP TOTAL UPDRAFTS AND PRECIP
COVERAGE LIMITED. DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES OF 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES ON
SUNDAY SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. LIGHT AMBIENT SFC WINDS OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO AID IN DEVELOPING A STRONGER SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH MAY FURTHER AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WENT WITH 30 PCT
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HAL OF THE CWA INCLUDING THE VALLEY...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT APPEARS WARRANTED GIVEN THE
SIGNAL AND THE VALLEYS HISTORY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW EVENTS.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK OFF AND STRETCH
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHIFTS 850/700MB
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. WEAK DCVA
CONTINUES WITH WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY RIDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW AT LEAST A LITTLE
BIT OF DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE 700MB LEVEL FROM AIR THAT HAS
PREVIOUSLY SUBSIDED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT FLOW WILL
AGAIN PROVIDE A GOOD SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. OVERALL 850-700MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH AND APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A 20 TO 30 PCT
CHANCE OF RAIN...30 PCT IN THE VALLEY...IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AGAIN HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT WE HAVE GOOD RH AND WIND
PROFILE FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION AND AN ADDED PUSH WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND NEARBY UPPER LOW. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIPITATION
OUTPUTS ALSO SHOW MORE ACTIVITY THAN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY SEES SIMILAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY MORE DRY AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE EAST AND LOWER LEVEL RH DROPS A BIT BUT BOTH GFS AND
ESPECIALLY ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWEST AND
GIVING THE AREA BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT. FEEL LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS DAY BUT DID AGAIN INCLUDE A 30 PCT AFTERNOON POP IN THE
FORECAST. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND PERSISTENT POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AGAIN THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO THE ODDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL FAVORABLE FACTORS AS WELL.

BEGAN TO STEP DOWN THE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
RIDGING INCREASES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF HOLDS ONTO STRONGER
MID LEVEL TROUGHING WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO POSSIBLY
ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES BUT LEANED WITH GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES DRIER
APPROACH WHICH HAS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. STILL ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO EEK OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
BUT DOWN FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF MID GULF RIDGING
RETURNING...A DRIER OVERALL COLUMN AND A RESURGENCE OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED
FORECAST IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL SIGNAL WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 105 WEST 95/98 COASTAL TREND SEEN FOR
MUCH OF THE SUMMER. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A FLAT PRESSURE FIELD COVERS THE
NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING
EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS
UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
ONLY POTENTIAL PITFALL FOR MARINERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
LIKELY TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS ON THE LAGUNA IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH MORE MODERATE CONDITONS AND MODERATE SEAS ON THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68/58





000
FXUS64 KBRO 011112 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
612 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWA. DEVELOPING LATE
MORNING LOW CLOUDS MAY PRESENT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS HOWEVER. A WEAK
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY
BUT MOST POTENTIAL CONVECTION FOR THE DAY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
LOWER VALLEY. PWAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES TODAY
IN THE LOWER VALLEY...AND WHATEVER CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO POP
UP WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THUS...LOOKING FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AN EYE ON A POSSIBLE
WEAK SEA BREEZE OR SOME LATE DAY CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DROPPING
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY PUSH
SOUTH INTO THE CWA...BUT MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY TODAY. A WEAK SEA BREEZE
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TODAY...AND ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE...COUPLED WITH FRONTAL RELATED CONVECTION...HAS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SUSTAINING ITSELF FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE  NORMAL WITH AMPLE SUN...FILTERED ONLY SLIGHTLY BY MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...
WITH LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL
WEAKENING AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

THE BIG QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT WILL CONVECTION FLARE UP ON
SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT STILL DRAPED ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM AN INCH AND A HALF SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY TO AROUND TWO INCHES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...CERTAINLY
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED WORDING NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS DUE TO LACK OF A STRONG GRADIENT
WILL ALSO NOT INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT....WHICH COULD PLAY
INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT. KEPT THE PREVIOUS THINKING ALIVE IN THE INHERITED FORECAST
ALBEIT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERALL SATURDAY. RAIN
FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD
COVER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD PATTERN WITH SOME LIMITATIONS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...KEPT
RAIN CHANCES ABOVE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY AND HOT BACK
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SUNDAY...FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A JET MAX ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AIDING IN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 TO 500MB
WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND 850MB MELDING INTO BROAD CONVERGENCE
AND WHATS LEFT OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY REAL AIRMASS CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING FROM THE NORTHEASTERLY PUSH SHOULD AID IN PROVIDING A FAIR
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 850-700MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHES 70 TO 80 PCT IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER
WEAK DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM 300 TO 500 MB.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TOTAL INSTABILITY ARE THE ONLY REAL
LIMITING FACTORS AND THAT MAY KEEP TOTAL UPDRAFTS AND PRECIP
COVERAGE LIMITED. DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES OF 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES ON
SUNDAY SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. LIGHT AMBIENT SFC WINDS OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO AID IN DEVELOPING A STRONGER SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH MAY FURTHER AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WENT WITH 30 PCT
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HAL OF THE CWA INCLUDING THE VALLEY...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT APPEARS WARRANTED GIVEN THE
SIGNAL AND THE VALLEYS HISTORY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW EVENTS.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK OFF AND STRETCH
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHIFTS 850/700MB
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. WEAK DCVA
CONTINUES WITH WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY RIDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW AT LEAST A LITTLE
BIT OF DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE 700MB LEVEL FROM AIR THAT HAS
PREVIOUSLY SUBSIDED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT FLOW WILL
AGAIN PROVIDE A GOOD SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. OVERALL 850-700MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH AND APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A 20 TO 30 PCT
CHANCE OF RAIN...30 PCT IN THE VALLEY...IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AGAIN HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT WE HAVE GOOD RH AND WIND
PROFILE FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION AND AN ADDED PUSH WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND NEARBY UPPER LOW. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIPITATION
OUTPUTS ALSO SHOW MORE ACTIVITY THAN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY SEES SIMILAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY MORE DRY AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE EAST AND LOWER LEVEL RH DROPS A BIT BUT BOTH GFS AND
ESPECIALLY ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWEST AND
GIVING THE AREA BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT. FEEL LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS DAY BUT DID AGAIN INCLUDE A 30 PCT AFTERNOON POP IN THE
FORECAST. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND PERSISTENT POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AGAIN THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO THE ODDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL FAVORABLE FACTORS AS WELL.

BEGAN TO STEP DOWN THE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
RIDGING INCREASES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF HOLDS ONTO STRONGER
MID LEVEL TROUGHING WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO POSSIBLY
ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES BUT LEANED WITH GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES DRIER
APPROACH WHICH HAS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. STILL ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO EEK OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
BUT DOWN FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF MID GULF RIDGING
RETURNING...A DRIER OVERALL COLUMN AND A RESURGENCE OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED
FORECAST IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL SIGNAL WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 105 WEST 95/98 COASTAL TREND SEEN FOR
MUCH OF THE SUMMER. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A FLAT PRESSURE FIELD COVERS THE
NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING
EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS
UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
ONLY POTENTIAL PITFALL FOR MARINERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
LIKELY TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS ON THE LAGUNA IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH MORE MODERATE CONDITONS AND MODERATE SEAS ON THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68/58






000
FXUS64 KAMA 011040
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
540 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SLOWLY ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE DIAL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT FOG OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IS TRYING TO
MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THIS
FOG WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS AS WINDS ARE SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT MIGHT IMPACT KDHT. IF
IT DOES THERE WOULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AROUND
9Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.  LOW SHOWER POPS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT HAVE BEEN REDUCED FURTHER AND ARE NOW FOR FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS ONLY...WHERE LATE DAY VORTICITY MAXIMUM COULD CAUSE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR INVERTED SURFACE TROF.  COULD ALSO BE SOME DRIFT
OF SHOWERS INTO THIS AREA VIA NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

SATURDAY MORNING POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN
REMOVED...DUE TO EXPECTED LACK OF FORCING AND WEAK WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW.  CONTINUED DRY FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS.

ALTHOUGH LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AND EXPECTED LACK OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEAD US TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH MODERATE DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE...BUT WARM 500
MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ALL BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN PANHANDLES...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  LOW POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED
ALL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 25
PERCENT.  NO EXCESSIVE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 011040
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
540 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SLOWLY ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE DIAL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT FOG OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA IS TRYING TO
MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THIS
FOG WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS AS WINDS ARE SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT MIGHT IMPACT KDHT. IF
IT DOES THERE WOULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AROUND
9Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.  LOW SHOWER POPS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT HAVE BEEN REDUCED FURTHER AND ARE NOW FOR FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS ONLY...WHERE LATE DAY VORTICITY MAXIMUM COULD CAUSE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR INVERTED SURFACE TROF.  COULD ALSO BE SOME DRIFT
OF SHOWERS INTO THIS AREA VIA NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

SATURDAY MORNING POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN
REMOVED...DUE TO EXPECTED LACK OF FORCING AND WEAK WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW.  CONTINUED DRY FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS.

ALTHOUGH LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AND EXPECTED LACK OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEAD US TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH MODERATE DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE...BUT WARM 500
MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ALL BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN PANHANDLES...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  LOW POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED
ALL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 25
PERCENT.  NO EXCESSIVE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03






000
FXUS64 KMAF 010951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
451 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning/early afternoon, w/bases 4-8 kft agl. Best chances of
convection will be west, where upslope effects will be pronounced.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS64 KMAF 010951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
451 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning/early afternoon, w/bases 4-8 kft agl. Best chances of
convection will be west, where upslope effects will be pronounced.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS64 KMAF 010951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
451 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning/early afternoon, w/bases 4-8 kft agl. Best chances of
convection will be west, where upslope effects will be pronounced.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS64 KMAF 010951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
451 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning/early afternoon, w/bases 4-8 kft agl. Best chances of
convection will be west, where upslope effects will be pronounced.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS64 KMAF 010946
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              89  67  88  68  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  65  86  68  /  50  50  40  20
DRYDEN TX                  92  74  91  73  /  40  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  68  88  68  /  30  30  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  60  80  65  /  70  60  60  30
HOBBS NM                   82  64  83  65  /  20  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   78  62  80  61  /  70  60  60  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    89  66  89  67  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
WINK TX                    92  69  93  69  /  20  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/80







000
FXUS64 KMAF 010946
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
446 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern half of the conus.  A
surface high is near the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing and moving into the far western CWA.  High temperatures
will be slightly warmer today than yesterday.  Showers and
thunderstorms are expected today for mainly areas west and south of
the Pecos River.  Heavy rain will be possible with this convection
as the rain will be slow moving.  The precipitation will continue
across the area into the day Saturday with temperatures similar to
the previous day.  By Sunday, an upper ridge will become more
centered over the region so showers and thunderstorms will decrease
in areal coverage and will mainly form across the higher terrain.
Temperatures on Sunday will warm up slightly as skies begin clear
over the area.  The upper ridge will be even more prevalent over the
region on Monday leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms and
slightly warmer temperatures.  Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below normal.  Temperatures will warm to around
normal values on Tuesday with chances for precipitation decreasing.
Similar conditions are expected through the end of next week with
coverage of precipitation increasing across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              89  67  88  68  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  65  86  68  /  50  50  40  20
DRYDEN TX                  92  74  91  73  /  40  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  68  88  68  /  30  30  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  60  80  65  /  70  60  60  30
HOBBS NM                   82  64  83  65  /  20  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   78  62  80  61  /  70  60  60  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    89  66  89  67  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  88  66  88  67  /  10  20  20  10
WINK TX                    92  69  93  69  /  20  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/80








000
FXUS64 KLUB 010941
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
441 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UNEVENTFUL NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS OFF THIS FIRST DAY OF AUGUST WITH
THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION THREAT CONFINED TO THE HIGHER RELIEF IN
NEW MEXICO. DESPITE MODEST NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW IN PLACE EARLY
THIS MORNING...A DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS WEST OF THE MESCALERO
RIDGE FAILED TO OVERCOME A WEDGE OF DRY MID-LEVEL FARTHER EAST.
THIS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ONLY BE REINFORCED TODAY AS AN EXTENSION
OF A 700MB RIDGE EXPANDS SOUTH FROM ERN COLORADO AND IN THE
PROCESS VEERS WINDS AT THIS LEVEL FROM NORTHWEST TO EAST. UPSHOT
OF THIS IS THAT ANY ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIP ORIGINATING IN NM
SHOULD BE HELD WEST OF THE STATE LINE THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SPUR WARMER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY AS
DEWPOINTS EASILY TUMBLE INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK. REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THE DECAYING EARLY A.M. STORMS NEAR ROSWELL SEEM ON
TRACK TO SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY OR SOONER...SO TEMPS WERE RAISED
ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES AREA WIDE TO SIDE A BIT CLOSER WITH THE WARMER
MET NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT THAN NORTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HARD TO TELL HOW FAST TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER REALLY DEPARTS AS SURFACE
FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHS SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE IS PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE NOT TAKING
THE COLD FRONT FORECASTED FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AS FAR SOUTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND DPROG/DT PRODUCTS SHOW CONTINUED INCONSISTENCIES
ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT. FLOW ALOFT DOES TRANSITION BACK
TO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE OVER THE REGION OR FOR STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
LEAVE POPS IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH NO CHANCES
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  61  78  59  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         85  61  80  61  83 /   0   0  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     84  62  80  61  82 /   0   0  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     84  61  81  65  83 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       86  63  81  65  83 /   0   0  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   84  64  84  64  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    86  63  84  65  85 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     87  65  87  67  87 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          88  64  85  66  86 /   0   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     88  66  87  67  90 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14






000
FXUS64 KLUB 010941
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
441 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UNEVENTFUL NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS OFF THIS FIRST DAY OF AUGUST WITH
THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION THREAT CONFINED TO THE HIGHER RELIEF IN
NEW MEXICO. DESPITE MODEST NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW IN PLACE EARLY
THIS MORNING...A DECAYING COMPLEX OF STORMS WEST OF THE MESCALERO
RIDGE FAILED TO OVERCOME A WEDGE OF DRY MID-LEVEL FARTHER EAST.
THIS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ONLY BE REINFORCED TODAY AS AN EXTENSION
OF A 700MB RIDGE EXPANDS SOUTH FROM ERN COLORADO AND IN THE
PROCESS VEERS WINDS AT THIS LEVEL FROM NORTHWEST TO EAST. UPSHOT
OF THIS IS THAT ANY ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIP ORIGINATING IN NM
SHOULD BE HELD WEST OF THE STATE LINE THROUGH TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SPUR WARMER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY AS
DEWPOINTS EASILY TUMBLE INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK. REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THE DECAYING EARLY A.M. STORMS NEAR ROSWELL SEEM ON
TRACK TO SCATTER OUT BY MIDDAY OR SOONER...SO TEMPS WERE RAISED
ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES AREA WIDE TO SIDE A BIT CLOSER WITH THE WARMER
MET NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT THAN NORTHWESTERLY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HARD TO TELL HOW FAST TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER REALLY DEPARTS AS SURFACE
FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. WILL SEE SOME SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHS SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIDGE IS PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE NOT TAKING
THE COLD FRONT FORECASTED FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AS FAR SOUTH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS AND DPROG/DT PRODUCTS SHOW CONTINUED INCONSISTENCIES
ON WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT. FLOW ALOFT DOES TRANSITION BACK
TO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE OVER THE REGION OR FOR STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO AND APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
LEAVE POPS IN PLACE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH NO CHANCES
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  61  78  59  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         85  61  80  61  83 /   0   0  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     84  62  80  61  82 /   0   0  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     84  61  81  65  83 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       86  63  81  65  83 /   0   0  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   84  64  84  64  85 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    86  63  84  65  85 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     87  65  87  67  87 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          88  64  85  66  86 /   0   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     88  66  87  67  90 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010939
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
439 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STILL A CHALLENGE WITH RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS NOT DEEP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WITH THIS SAID...DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE POPS ANY
FURTHER KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. HOWEVER DID KEEP HIGHER
CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY
REMAINS GREATEST AND H85 AND H7 TEMPS COOL THE MOST. WOULD
EXPECTED AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA GENERALLY DURING
THE MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WRF-
4KM MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN THIS SAME TREND WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE
MINOR TWEAKS STAYING BELOW PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE YET KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 90S AREA-WIDE.
INCREASE MOISTURE DEPTH AND OMEGA COME INTO PLAY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS KEPT CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR. THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL EXIST AS STORM FLOW WILL BE SLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR SOUTH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES ACROSS THE REGION. BOUNDARY IS PROG TO
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIP
CHANCES EXISTING PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...STRATIFICATION IMPACTS OVER MARINE ZONES AND IMMEDIATE
COAST SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE IN
THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PROG TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A
SLIGHT INVERSION AROUND H7...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HEIGHTS ON MON MAY LEAD TO AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. PWATS LOWER EVEN FURTHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WIND PROFILE BECOMES NORTHERLY FROM H8 AND
ABOVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FURTHER. LIGHT NE SFC FLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEFORE
GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS THROUGH MID WEEK /ESPECIALLY FOR MAX
TEMPS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  76  93  74  95  /  30  30  30  20  20
VICTORIA          92  74  91  73  95  /  40  30  30  10  10
LAREDO           101  79  97  78 100  /  30  30  30  20  10
ALICE             96  76  94  74  97  /  30  30  30  10  10
ROCKPORT          86  78  89  78  91  /  40  30  30  20  20
COTULLA           96  77  94  75  98  /  30  30  30  10  10
KINGSVILLE        96  76  94  74  97  /  30  30  30  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       87  79  88  78  91  /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010939
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
439 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STILL A CHALLENGE WITH RAIN
CHANCES TODAY. ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS NOT DEEP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WITH THIS SAID...DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE POPS ANY
FURTHER KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. HOWEVER DID KEEP HIGHER
CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY
REMAINS GREATEST AND H85 AND H7 TEMPS COOL THE MOST. WOULD
EXPECTED AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA GENERALLY DURING
THE MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WRF-
4KM MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN THIS SAME TREND WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE
MINOR TWEAKS STAYING BELOW PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE YET KEEPING TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 90S AREA-WIDE.
INCREASE MOISTURE DEPTH AND OMEGA COME INTO PLAY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS KEPT CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR. THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL EXIST AS STORM FLOW WILL BE SLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR SOUTH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT AS WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES ACROSS THE REGION. BOUNDARY IS PROG TO
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN ZONES OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIP
CHANCES EXISTING PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...STRATIFICATION IMPACTS OVER MARINE ZONES AND IMMEDIATE
COAST SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE IN
THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PROG TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A
SLIGHT INVERSION AROUND H7...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HEIGHTS ON MON MAY LEAD TO AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. PWATS LOWER EVEN FURTHER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WIND PROFILE BECOMES NORTHERLY FROM H8 AND
ABOVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FURTHER. LIGHT NE SFC FLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEFORE
GRADUAL WARMING TREND OCCURS THROUGH MID WEEK /ESPECIALLY FOR MAX
TEMPS/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  76  93  74  95  /  30  30  30  20  20
VICTORIA          92  74  91  73  95  /  40  30  30  10  10
LAREDO           101  79  97  78 100  /  30  30  30  20  10
ALICE             96  76  94  74  97  /  30  30  30  10  10
ROCKPORT          86  78  89  78  91  /  40  30  30  20  20
COTULLA           96  77  94  75  98  /  30  30  30  10  10
KINGSVILLE        96  76  94  74  97  /  30  30  30  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       87  79  88  78  91  /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010927
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
415 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.  LOW SHOWER POPS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT HAVE BEEN REDUCED FURTHER AND ARE NOW FOR FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS ONLY...WHERE LATE DAY VORTICITY MAXIMUM COULD CAUSE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR INVERTED SURFACE TROF.  COULD ALSO BE SOME DRIFT
OF SHOWERS INTO THIS AREA VIA NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

SATURDAY MORNING POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN
REMOVED...DUE TO EXPECTED LACK OF FORCING AND WEAK WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW.  CONTINUED DRY FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS.

ALTHOUGH LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AND EXPECTED LACK OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEAD US TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH MODERATE DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE...BUT WARM 500
MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ALL BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN PANHANDLES...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  LOW POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED
ALL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 25
PERCENT.  NO EXCESSIVE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                82  61  82  62  85 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  89  59  90  63  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              83  60  86  59  87 /  10  10   5   5   5
BORGER TX                  85  65  87  65  88 /   0   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              84  61  84  63  88 /  10  10   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  81  60  81  60  85 /   5   5  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               84  63  87  65  86 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 81  59  82  59  86 /  10  20   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  87  61  90  62  89 /   0   5   5   0   5
HEREFORD TX                78  58  81  57  84 /  10  10  10   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                88  60  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   83  60  86  61  85 /   0   0   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                85  59  89  64  88 /   0   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              86  60  90  66  89 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KAMA 010927
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
415 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.  LOW SHOWER POPS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT HAVE BEEN REDUCED FURTHER AND ARE NOW FOR FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS ONLY...WHERE LATE DAY VORTICITY MAXIMUM COULD CAUSE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR INVERTED SURFACE TROF.  COULD ALSO BE SOME DRIFT
OF SHOWERS INTO THIS AREA VIA NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

SATURDAY MORNING POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN
REMOVED...DUE TO EXPECTED LACK OF FORCING AND WEAK WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW.  CONTINUED DRY FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS.

ALTHOUGH LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AND EXPECTED LACK OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEAD US TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH MODERATE DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE...BUT WARM 500
MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ALL BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN PANHANDLES...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  LOW POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED
ALL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 25
PERCENT.  NO EXCESSIVE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                82  61  82  62  85 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  89  59  90  63  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              83  60  86  59  87 /  10  10   5   5   5
BORGER TX                  85  65  87  65  88 /   0   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              84  61  84  63  88 /  10  10   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  81  60  81  60  85 /   5   5  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               84  63  87  65  86 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 81  59  82  59  86 /  10  20   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  87  61  90  62  89 /   0   5   5   0   5
HEREFORD TX                78  58  81  57  84 /  10  10  10   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                88  60  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   83  60  86  61  85 /   0   0   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                85  59  89  64  88 /   0   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              86  60  90  66  89 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KAMA 010927
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
415 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.  LOW SHOWER POPS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT HAVE BEEN REDUCED FURTHER AND ARE NOW FOR FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS ONLY...WHERE LATE DAY VORTICITY MAXIMUM COULD CAUSE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR INVERTED SURFACE TROF.  COULD ALSO BE SOME DRIFT
OF SHOWERS INTO THIS AREA VIA NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

SATURDAY MORNING POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN
REMOVED...DUE TO EXPECTED LACK OF FORCING AND WEAK WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW.  CONTINUED DRY FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS.

ALTHOUGH LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AND EXPECTED LACK OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEAD US TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH MODERATE DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE...BUT WARM 500
MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ALL BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN PANHANDLES...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  LOW POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED
ALL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 25
PERCENT.  NO EXCESSIVE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                82  61  82  62  85 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  89  59  90  63  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              83  60  86  59  87 /  10  10   5   5   5
BORGER TX                  85  65  87  65  88 /   0   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              84  61  84  63  88 /  10  10   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  81  60  81  60  85 /   5   5  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               84  63  87  65  86 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 81  59  82  59  86 /  10  20   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  87  61  90  62  89 /   0   5   5   0   5
HEREFORD TX                78  58  81  57  84 /  10  10  10   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                88  60  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   83  60  86  61  85 /   0   0   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                85  59  89  64  88 /   0   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              86  60  90  66  89 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KAMA 010927
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
415 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.  LOW SHOWER POPS FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT HAVE BEEN REDUCED FURTHER AND ARE NOW FOR FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS ONLY...WHERE LATE DAY VORTICITY MAXIMUM COULD CAUSE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR INVERTED SURFACE TROF.  COULD ALSO BE SOME DRIFT
OF SHOWERS INTO THIS AREA VIA NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

SATURDAY MORNING POPS IN SOUTHWESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN
REMOVED...DUE TO EXPECTED LACK OF FORCING AND WEAK WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW.  CONTINUED DRY FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS.

ALTHOUGH LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AND EXPECTED LACK OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEAD US TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH MODERATE DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE...BUT WARM 500
MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ALL BUT NORTHERN SECTIONS.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN PANHANDLES...BUT
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  LOW POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED
ALL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 25
PERCENT.  NO EXCESSIVE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                82  61  82  62  85 /   5   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  89  59  90  63  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              83  60  86  59  87 /  10  10   5   5   5
BORGER TX                  85  65  87  65  88 /   0   5   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              84  61  84  63  88 /  10  10   5   5   5
CANYON TX                  81  60  81  60  85 /   5   5  10   5   5
CLARENDON TX               84  63  87  65  86 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 81  59  82  59  86 /  10  20   5   5   5
GUYMON OK                  87  61  90  62  89 /   0   5   5   0   5
HEREFORD TX                78  58  81  57  84 /  10  10  10   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                88  60  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   83  60  86  61  85 /   0   0   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                85  59  89  64  88 /   0   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              86  60  90  66  89 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 010925
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
325 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY TO GIVE US A
CHANCE FOR MORE HEAVY RAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL DRY
OUT A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DAY ONE OF OUR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL HAS GONE PRETTY WELL. MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND A FEW SPOTS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN. NORMALLY AFTER A RAIN EVENT
LIKE THIS WE WOULD EXPECT TO HAVE A DOWN DAY...BUT THAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THE CASE TODAY. WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX TO
OUR SOUTH AND AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. PROBABLY THE MODERATE RAIN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE INTO
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AND THEN AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WE WILL AGAIN SEE THUNDERSTORMS POP
UP. LIKE THURSDAY A FEW SPOTS WILL RECEIVE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SO
I`M GOING TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. AS A MATTER OF FACT
THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL EXTEND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO WE WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AM. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED OFF...BUT WE WILL BY NO MEANS BE
PULLING THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST. AS A MATTER OF FACT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE COMING WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY THIS WEEK AS IT WILL DEPEND A
LOT ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AND WHERE IT FALLS. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE I`VE GONE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. THEN AS WE HEAD OUT OF
THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE BACK TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COMING WEEK AND
MAY EVEN GET BACK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOTS OF RAIN AND LOTS OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WE CAN EXPECT THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING AND THEN MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL SEE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS
WE WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS TODAY WILL BE BKN050-070 BUT IT WILL BE
CERTAINLY LOWER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT LOWER IN THE HEAVIER RAIN CELLS.
SURFACE WINDS AWAY FROM THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS...BUT ONCE THE OUTFLOWS GET GOING
LATER TODAY WE COULD SEE WINDS SWING AROUND TO ALMOST ANY DIRECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN. AND OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT
BE ELIMINATED FROM THE FORECAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT OF COURSE FOR STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH`S SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE WITH VERY HIGH MIN RH`S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 85  70  85  70  87 /  60  60  60  60  40
SIERRA BLANCA           81  71  78  71  80 /  50  60  40  50  30
LAS CRUCES              84  68  83  68  85 /  60  60  60  60  50
ALAMOGORDO              85  69  82  69  84 /  60  60  60  50  40
CLOUDCROFT              61  47  64  47  66 /  80  60  70  60  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   83  67  81  67  83 /  60  60  60  60  50
SILVER CITY             78  60  78  60  80 /  60  60  70  60  60
DEMING                  83  68  83  68  85 /  60  60  60  60  60
LORDSBURG               83  67  83  67  85 /  50  60  60  60  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      86  72  84  72  86 /  60  60  60  60  40
DELL CITY               84  65  84  65  86 /  50  60  40  50  30
FORT HANCOCK            86  71  85  71  87 /  60  60  40  50  30
LOMA LINDA              79  66  86  66  88 /  60  60  50  50  40
FABENS                  86  71  85  71  87 /  60  60  50  60  40
SANTA TERESA            85  69  84  69  86 /  60  60  60  60  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          83  70  85  70  87 /  60  60  60  60  50
JORNADA RANGE           83  64  83  64  85 /  60  60  60  60  50
HATCH                   83  66  83  66  85 /  60  60  60  60  50
COLUMBUS                84  68  84  68  86 /  60  60  60  60  50
OROGRANDE               84  68  84  68  86 /  60  60  60  50  40
MAYHILL                 70  52  71  52  74 /  80  60  80  60  50
MESCALERO               71  51  71  51  73 /  80  60  70  60  60
TIMBERON                70  50  71  50  73 /  80  60  70  60  50
WINSTON                 78  58  79  57  81 /  80  60  80  60  70
HILLSBORO               78  67  84  67  86 /  60  60  70  60  50
SPACEPORT               84  67  82  67  84 /  60  60  60  60  50
LAKE ROBERTS            77  53  82  53  84 /  70  60  70  60  70
HURLEY                  80  60  78  60  80 /  60  60  70  60  60
CLIFF                   79  56  81  56  83 /  60  60  60  60  60
MULE CREEK              78  54  80  54  82 /  60  60  60  50  60
FAYWOOD                 80  64  83  64  85 /  60  60  70  60  70
ANIMAS                  86  69  84  69  86 /  60  60  60  60  60
HACHITA                 86  66  85  66  87 /  60  60  60  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  69  83  69  85 /  50  60  50  60  60
CLOVERDALE              78  66  81  66  83 /  60  60  50  50  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

BRICE





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 010925
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
325 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY TO GIVE US A
CHANCE FOR MORE HEAVY RAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE WILL DRY
OUT A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DAY ONE OF OUR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL HAS GONE PRETTY WELL. MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND A FEW SPOTS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN. NORMALLY AFTER A RAIN EVENT
LIKE THIS WE WOULD EXPECT TO HAVE A DOWN DAY...BUT THAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE THE CASE TODAY. WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX TO
OUR SOUTH AND AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. PROBABLY THE MODERATE RAIN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE INTO
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AND THEN AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WE WILL AGAIN SEE THUNDERSTORMS POP
UP. LIKE THURSDAY A FEW SPOTS WILL RECEIVE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SO
I`M GOING TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. AS A MATTER OF FACT
THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL EXTEND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING SO WE WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AM. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED OFF...BUT WE WILL BY NO MEANS BE
PULLING THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST. AS A MATTER OF FACT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE COMING WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY THIS WEEK AS IT WILL DEPEND A
LOT ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AND WHERE IT FALLS. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE I`VE GONE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ALMOST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. THEN AS WE HEAD OUT OF
THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE BACK TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COMING WEEK AND
MAY EVEN GET BACK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOTS OF RAIN AND LOTS OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WE CAN EXPECT THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING AND THEN MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL SEE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS
WE WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS TODAY WILL BE BKN050-070 BUT IT WILL BE
CERTAINLY LOWER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE GOOD EXCEPT LOWER IN THE HEAVIER RAIN CELLS.
SURFACE WINDS AWAY FROM THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS...BUT ONCE THE OUTFLOWS GET GOING
LATER TODAY WE COULD SEE WINDS SWING AROUND TO ALMOST ANY DIRECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN. AND OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT
BE ELIMINATED FROM THE FORECAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT OF COURSE FOR STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH`S SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE WITH VERY HIGH MIN RH`S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 85  70  85  70  87 /  60  60  60  60  40
SIERRA BLANCA           81  71  78  71  80 /  50  60  40  50  30
LAS CRUCES              84  68  83  68  85 /  60  60  60  60  50
ALAMOGORDO              85  69  82  69  84 /  60  60  60  50  40
CLOUDCROFT              61  47  64  47  66 /  80  60  70  60  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   83  67  81  67  83 /  60  60  60  60  50
SILVER CITY             78  60  78  60  80 /  60  60  70  60  60
DEMING                  83  68  83  68  85 /  60  60  60  60  60
LORDSBURG               83  67  83  67  85 /  50  60  60  60  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      86  72  84  72  86 /  60  60  60  60  40
DELL CITY               84  65  84  65  86 /  50  60  40  50  30
FORT HANCOCK            86  71  85  71  87 /  60  60  40  50  30
LOMA LINDA              79  66  86  66  88 /  60  60  50  50  40
FABENS                  86  71  85  71  87 /  60  60  50  60  40
SANTA TERESA            85  69  84  69  86 /  60  60  60  60  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          83  70  85  70  87 /  60  60  60  60  50
JORNADA RANGE           83  64  83  64  85 /  60  60  60  60  50
HATCH                   83  66  83  66  85 /  60  60  60  60  50
COLUMBUS                84  68  84  68  86 /  60  60  60  60  50
OROGRANDE               84  68  84  68  86 /  60  60  60  50  40
MAYHILL                 70  52  71  52  74 /  80  60  80  60  50
MESCALERO               71  51  71  51  73 /  80  60  70  60  60
TIMBERON                70  50  71  50  73 /  80  60  70  60  50
WINSTON                 78  58  79  57  81 /  80  60  80  60  70
HILLSBORO               78  67  84  67  86 /  60  60  70  60  50
SPACEPORT               84  67  82  67  84 /  60  60  60  60  50
LAKE ROBERTS            77  53  82  53  84 /  70  60  70  60  70
HURLEY                  80  60  78  60  80 /  60  60  70  60  60
CLIFF                   79  56  81  56  83 /  60  60  60  60  60
MULE CREEK              78  54  80  54  82 /  60  60  60  50  60
FAYWOOD                 80  64  83  64  85 /  60  60  70  60  70
ANIMAS                  86  69  84  69  86 /  60  60  60  60  60
HACHITA                 86  66  85  66  87 /  60  60  60  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          85  69  83  69  85 /  50  60  50  60  60
CLOVERDALE              78  66  81  66  83 /  60  60  50  50  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

BRICE






000
FXUS64 KSJT 010921
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
420 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Currently, the area is under weak northwest flow with an upper level
high centered south of Big Bend in northern Mexico. Weak upper level
shortwave energy continues to rotate northward around the upper
level high out of Mexico in southern New Mexico and Arizona. This is
resulting in continued thunderstorm development to our west. This
ridge will move very little over the next day or so. The cold front
that moved through the area is currently along a line roughly from
Del Rio to San Antonio to Nacogdoches early this morning. The front
will remain south of our forecast area over the next 24 hours. For
our area that means another day of cooler than normal temperatures
and mainly dry weather. Although thunderstorms are expected again to
our west today into tonight, do not expect thunderstorms to impact
most of our area, and have kept only a slight chance mainly in
Crockett County today and tonight.

Highs will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s today with lows
from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

A slow warming trend is expected this weekend for our area. Rain
chances are practically non-mentionable, with the possible
exception of isolated showers and thunderstorms in parts of
western and southern Crockett County on Saturday.

The upper high will gradually expand across the central and
southern Rockies into the Rio Grande Valley this weekend. With a
surface high pressure ridge extending from the southern Great
Lakes southwest across the southern Plains, our winds will be from
the east to northeast this weekend into Monday. With wind speeds
dropping off during the overnight hours, radiational cooling will
allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 60s for lows on
Sunday and Monday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on
Saturday, and mostly in the lower 90s on Sunday.

The gradual warming trend will continue through the middle of
next week, with temperatures back to normal by midweek. Winds
will become southeast on Tuesday, and south with some increase in
speeds Wednesday and Thursday. Shortwave energy will weaken the
northern part of the upper high over the central Rockies, while
the southern portion remains anchored over New Mexico, West Texas,
and adjacent northern Mexico.

Late next week, the 00Z GFS and ECMWF have backed off with the
arrival of a cold front from the north. Both models now have the
front stalling well north of our area. With the uncertainty on
Day 7 and on which way the models will subsequently trend, have
kept a slight chance PoP for our far northern counties next
Thursday and Thursday night. If the current model trend continues
however, will need to remove the PoPs.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  65  89  67  90 /   5   5   5   5   0
San Angelo  90  65  92  67  93 /   5  10  10   5   5
Junction  91  67  92  66  93 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 010921
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
420 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Currently, the area is under weak northwest flow with an upper level
high centered south of Big Bend in northern Mexico. Weak upper level
shortwave energy continues to rotate northward around the upper
level high out of Mexico in southern New Mexico and Arizona. This is
resulting in continued thunderstorm development to our west. This
ridge will move very little over the next day or so. The cold front
that moved through the area is currently along a line roughly from
Del Rio to San Antonio to Nacogdoches early this morning. The front
will remain south of our forecast area over the next 24 hours. For
our area that means another day of cooler than normal temperatures
and mainly dry weather. Although thunderstorms are expected again to
our west today into tonight, do not expect thunderstorms to impact
most of our area, and have kept only a slight chance mainly in
Crockett County today and tonight.

Highs will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s today with lows
from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

A slow warming trend is expected this weekend for our area. Rain
chances are practically non-mentionable, with the possible
exception of isolated showers and thunderstorms in parts of
western and southern Crockett County on Saturday.

The upper high will gradually expand across the central and
southern Rockies into the Rio Grande Valley this weekend. With a
surface high pressure ridge extending from the southern Great
Lakes southwest across the southern Plains, our winds will be from
the east to northeast this weekend into Monday. With wind speeds
dropping off during the overnight hours, radiational cooling will
allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 60s for lows on
Sunday and Monday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s on
Saturday, and mostly in the lower 90s on Sunday.

The gradual warming trend will continue through the middle of
next week, with temperatures back to normal by midweek. Winds
will become southeast on Tuesday, and south with some increase in
speeds Wednesday and Thursday. Shortwave energy will weaken the
northern part of the upper high over the central Rockies, while
the southern portion remains anchored over New Mexico, West Texas,
and adjacent northern Mexico.

Late next week, the 00Z GFS and ECMWF have backed off with the
arrival of a cold front from the north. Both models now have the
front stalling well north of our area. With the uncertainty on
Day 7 and on which way the models will subsequently trend, have
kept a slight chance PoP for our far northern counties next
Thursday and Thursday night. If the current model trend continues
however, will need to remove the PoPs.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  65  89  67  90 /   5   5   5   5   0
San Angelo  90  65  92  67  93 /   5  10  10   5   5
Junction  91  67  92  66  93 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KHGX 010858
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
358 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY AND FLOODING RAINFALL IN/AROUND
THE HOUSTON METRO AREA CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL WITH EARLIER STORMS ACROSS HARRIS
COUNTY (VIA THE COUNTY`S FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM) INCLUDED 5.68 INCHES
IN 1 1/2 HOURS ON GREENS BAYOU AT HIGHWAY 59...A 6.56 INCH TOTAL AT
ALDINE WESTFIELD...AND A 5.40 INCH TOTAL AT I-45 AND WEST ROAD. AT ONE
POINT...HOURLY RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 4 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE BELTWAY
8 AND HIGHWAY 59 AREA. CURRENTLY...STORM MERGERS ALONG WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SUNRISE MAINLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 59 AND THE
COAST. WITH THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TODAY...ANY DAYTIME HEATING AND RECOVERY FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS
WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
LOWER CHANCES NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE COAST. NEXT
WEEK`S WEATHER IS GOING TO DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR WEST. PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LOOK TO BE
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MAINLY
DAYTIME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  42
&&

.MARINE...
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP NEAR THE COAST TODAY.
THIS NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RETURN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXCEPT WITHIN OR IN
THE VICINITY OF MARITIME STORMS WHERE WINDS AND SEAS COULD QUICKLY
BECOME DANGEROUS...GENERAL ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS
WILL BE VERY LOW AT OR UNDER TWO FEET. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      89  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  90  73  92 /  40  30  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  78  89  78  89 /  50  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 010858
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
358 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY AND FLOODING RAINFALL IN/AROUND
THE HOUSTON METRO AREA CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL WITH EARLIER STORMS ACROSS HARRIS
COUNTY (VIA THE COUNTY`S FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM) INCLUDED 5.68 INCHES
IN 1 1/2 HOURS ON GREENS BAYOU AT HIGHWAY 59...A 6.56 INCH TOTAL AT
ALDINE WESTFIELD...AND A 5.40 INCH TOTAL AT I-45 AND WEST ROAD. AT ONE
POINT...HOURLY RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 4 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE BELTWAY
8 AND HIGHWAY 59 AREA. CURRENTLY...STORM MERGERS ALONG WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SUNRISE MAINLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 59 AND THE
COAST. WITH THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TODAY...ANY DAYTIME HEATING AND RECOVERY FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS
WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
LOWER CHANCES NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE COAST. NEXT
WEEK`S WEATHER IS GOING TO DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH/LOCATION OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR WEST. PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LOOK TO BE
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MAINLY
DAYTIME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  42
&&

.MARINE...
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP NEAR THE COAST TODAY.
THIS NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RETURN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXCEPT WITHIN OR IN
THE VICINITY OF MARITIME STORMS WHERE WINDS AND SEAS COULD QUICKLY
BECOME DANGEROUS...GENERAL ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS
WILL BE VERY LOW AT OR UNDER TWO FEET. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      89  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  73  90  73  92 /  40  30  30  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  78  89  78  89 /  50  30  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KBRO 010850
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
350 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DROPPING
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY PUSH
SOUTH INTO THE CWA...BUT MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY TODAY. A WEAK SEA BREEZE
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TODAY...AND ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE...COUPLED WITH FRONTAL RELATED CONVECTION...HAS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SUSTAINING ITSELF FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE  NORMAL WITH AMPLE SUN...FILTERED ONLY SLIGHTLY BY MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...
WITH LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL
WEAKENING AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

THE BIG QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT WILL CONVECTION FLARE UP ON
SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT STILL DRAPED ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM AN INCH AND A HALF SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY TO AROUND TWO INCHES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...CERTAINLY
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED WORDING NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS DUE TO LACK OF A STRONG GRADIENT
WILL ALSO NOT INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT....WHICH COULD PLAY
INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT. KEPT THE PREVIOUS THINKING ALIVE IN THE INHERITED FORECAST
ALBEIT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERALL SATURDAY. RAIN
FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD PATTERN WITH SOME LIMITATIONS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...KEPT
RAIN CHANCES ABOVE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY AND HOT BACK
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SUNDAY...FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A JET MAX ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AIDING IN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 TO 500MB
WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND 850MB MELDING INTO BROAD CONVERGENCE
AND WHATS LEFT OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY REAL AIRMASS CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING FROM THE NORTHEASTERLY PUSH SHOULD AID IN PROVIDING A FAIR
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 850-700MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHES 70 TO 80 PCT IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER
WEAK DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM 300 TO 500 MB.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TOTAL INSTABILITY ARE THE ONLY REAL
LIMITING FACTORS AND THAT MAY KEEP TOTAL UPDRAFTS AND PRECIP
COVERAGE LIMITED. DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES OF 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES ON
SUNDAY SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. LIGHT AMBIENT SFC WINDS OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO AID IN DEVELOPING A STRONGER SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH MAY FURTHER AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WENT WITH 30 PCT
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HAL OF THE CWA INCLUDING THE VALLEY...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT APPEARS WARRANTED GIVEN THE
SIGNAL AND THE VALLEYS HISTORY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW EVENTS.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK OFF AND STRETCH
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHIFTS 850/700MB
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. WEAK DCVA
CONTINUES WITH WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY RIDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW AT LEAST A LITTLE
BIT OF DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE 700MB LEVEL FROM AIR THAT HAS
PREVIOUSLY SUBSIDED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT FLOW WILL
AGAIN PROVIDE A GOOD SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. OVERALL 850-700MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH AND APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A 20 TO 30 PCT
CHANCE OF RAIN...30 PCT IN THE VALLEY...IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AGAIN HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT WE HAVE GOOD RH AND WIND
PROFILE FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION AND AN ADDED PUSH WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND NEARBY UPPER LOW. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIPITATION
OUTPUTS ALSO SHOW MORE ACTIVITY THAN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY SEES SIMILAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY MORE DRY AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE EAST AND LOWER LEVEL RH DROPS A BIT BUT BOTH GFS AND
ESPECIALLY ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWEST AND
GIVING THE AREA BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT. FEEL LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS DAY BUT DID AGAIN INCLUDE A 30 PCT AFTERNOON POP IN THE
FORECAST. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND PERSISTENT POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AGAIN THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO THE ODDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL FAVORABLE FACTORS AS WELL.

BEGAN TO STEP DOWN THE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
RIDGING INCREASES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF HOLDS ONTO STRONGER
MID LEVEL TROUGHING WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO POSSIBLY
ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES BUT LEANED WITH GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES DRIER
APPROACH WHICH HAS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. STILL ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO EEK OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
BUT DOWN FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF MID GULF RIDGING
RETURNING...A DRIER OVERALL COLUMN AND A RESURGENCE OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED
FORECAST IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL SIGNAL WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 105 WEST 95/98 COASTAL TREND SEEN FOR
MUCH OF THE SUMMER. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A FLAT PRESSURE FIELD COVERS THE
NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING
EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS
UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
ONLY POTENTIAL PITFALL FOR MARINERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
LIKELY TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS ON THE LAGUNA IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH MORE MODERATE CONDITONS AND MODERATE SEAS ON THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  93  79  91  78 /  10  10  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          95  78  94  78 /  10  10  20  20
HARLINGEN            97  77  95  77 /  10  10  20  20
MCALLEN             100  79  98  78 /  10  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY     101  79 100  78 /  20  20  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   89  80  88  80 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68/58






000
FXUS64 KBRO 010850
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
350 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DROPPING
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY PUSH
SOUTH INTO THE CWA...BUT MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY TODAY. A WEAK SEA BREEZE
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TODAY...AND ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE...COUPLED WITH FRONTAL RELATED CONVECTION...HAS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SUSTAINING ITSELF FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE  NORMAL WITH AMPLE SUN...FILTERED ONLY SLIGHTLY BY MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...
WITH LITTLE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL
WEAKENING AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

THE BIG QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT WILL CONVECTION FLARE UP ON
SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT STILL DRAPED ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM AN INCH AND A HALF SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY TO AROUND TWO INCHES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...CERTAINLY
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED WORDING NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS DUE TO LACK OF A STRONG GRADIENT
WILL ALSO NOT INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT....WHICH COULD PLAY
INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT. KEPT THE PREVIOUS THINKING ALIVE IN THE INHERITED FORECAST
ALBEIT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERALL SATURDAY. RAIN
FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD PATTERN WITH SOME LIMITATIONS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...KEPT
RAIN CHANCES ABOVE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY AND HOT BACK
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SUNDAY...FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A JET MAX ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AIDING IN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 TO 500MB
WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND 850MB MELDING INTO BROAD CONVERGENCE
AND WHATS LEFT OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY REAL AIRMASS CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING FROM THE NORTHEASTERLY PUSH SHOULD AID IN PROVIDING A FAIR
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 850-700MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY APPROACHES 70 TO 80 PCT IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER
WEAK DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM 300 TO 500 MB.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TOTAL INSTABILITY ARE THE ONLY REAL
LIMITING FACTORS AND THAT MAY KEEP TOTAL UPDRAFTS AND PRECIP
COVERAGE LIMITED. DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES OF 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES ON
SUNDAY SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES IF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. LIGHT AMBIENT SFC WINDS OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO AID IN DEVELOPING A STRONGER SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
WHICH MAY FURTHER AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WENT WITH 30 PCT
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HAL OF THE CWA INCLUDING THE VALLEY...WHICH
IS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT APPEARS WARRANTED GIVEN THE
SIGNAL AND THE VALLEYS HISTORY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW EVENTS.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO BREAK OFF AND STRETCH
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHIFTS 850/700MB
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. WEAK DCVA
CONTINUES WITH WEAK LOBES OF VORTICITY RIDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW AT LEAST A LITTLE
BIT OF DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE 700MB LEVEL FROM AIR THAT HAS
PREVIOUSLY SUBSIDED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT FLOW WILL
AGAIN PROVIDE A GOOD SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. OVERALL 850-700MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH AND APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A 20 TO 30 PCT
CHANCE OF RAIN...30 PCT IN THE VALLEY...IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AGAIN HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT WE HAVE GOOD RH AND WIND
PROFILE FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION AND AN ADDED PUSH WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND NEARBY UPPER LOW. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIPITATION
OUTPUTS ALSO SHOW MORE ACTIVITY THAN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY SEES SIMILAR CONDITIONS...SLIGHTLY MORE DRY AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE EAST AND LOWER LEVEL RH DROPS A BIT BUT BOTH GFS AND
ESPECIALLY ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWEST AND
GIVING THE AREA BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT. FEEL LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT
THIS DAY BUT DID AGAIN INCLUDE A 30 PCT AFTERNOON POP IN THE
FORECAST. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND PERSISTENT POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AGAIN THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO THE ODDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL FAVORABLE FACTORS AS WELL.

BEGAN TO STEP DOWN THE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
RIDGING INCREASES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ECMWF HOLDS ONTO STRONGER
MID LEVEL TROUGHING WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO POSSIBLY
ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES BUT LEANED WITH GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES DRIER
APPROACH WHICH HAS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. STILL ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO EEK OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
BUT DOWN FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

BETTER AGREEMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF MID GULF RIDGING
RETURNING...A DRIER OVERALL COLUMN AND A RESURGENCE OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE TO INHERITED
FORECAST IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL SIGNAL WITH A DRY FORECAST AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 105 WEST 95/98 COASTAL TREND SEEN FOR
MUCH OF THE SUMMER. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A FLAT PRESSURE FIELD COVERS THE
NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING
EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS
UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
ONLY POTENTIAL PITFALL FOR MARINERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
LIKELY TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS ON THE LAGUNA IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH MORE MODERATE CONDITONS AND MODERATE SEAS ON THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  93  79  91  78 /  10  10  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          95  78  94  78 /  10  10  20  20
HARLINGEN            97  77  95  77 /  10  10  20  20
MCALLEN             100  79  98  78 /  10  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY     101  79 100  78 /  20  20  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   89  80  88  80 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68/58







000
FXUS64 KEWX 010828
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
328 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH TO NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS EXTENDING
TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO. A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES
TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. AMPLE MOISTURE
WITH PWS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE LIFTED BY THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
SHORT-WAVES TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO WILL KEEP RAINS OUT OF
THOSE AREAS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES MAKES A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DRYING THE
AIRMASS WITH PWS FALLING BELOW 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE FRONT DISSIPATES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FILLS. RAINS
ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH...
CAN NOT RULE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY WAVE PER THE ECMWF MOVES
WEST UNDER THE RIDGE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF I-35 ON THURSDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT LEVELING OFF BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO THE EASTERLY WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              90  72  90  73  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  69  90  70  94 /  10  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     92  71  90  72  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  70  88  70  93 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        89  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             93  73  92  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  71  90  71  93 /  10  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  71  91  72  93 /  20  10  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  74  91  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  74  92  73  95 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





000
FXUS64 KFWD 010825
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT USHERED IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
INTO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING... THE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND WAS PROVIDING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST REGION OF
THE STATE. FOR OUR AREA THOUGH...CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE
ONLY REMNANTS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A
RESULT OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
BUT THEY WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST DUE TO OUR PROXIMITY
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS WELL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE PLEASANT FOR THE AREA WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OVER THE
WEEKEND SO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 90S. BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO BEGIN NUDGING CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND YIELD A RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN TEMPERATURES SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY...TAPPING INTO THE
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BY MIDWEEK...ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF THE
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT THAT IS SHOWED IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE SHORTWAVE MAY
NOT GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND/OR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION PREVAILS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
FROM WHAT IS FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

AJS


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1149 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR AND IFR CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THE EASTERN METROPLEX AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KDFW...KDAL...AND
KGKY...ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW CIGS BELOW 2 KFT TONIGHT WITH
FURTHER LOWERING BELOW 1 KFT IN A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-4 KFT
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT
SOME BY FRIDAY EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

THE WESTERN METROPLEX AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KAFW AND KFTW...HAVE
BEEN SKIRTING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT WITH
PREVAILING CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. WILL TEMPO FOR LOWER CIGS BETWEEN
1-2 KFT FROM 07-11Z BUT CIGS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT SHOULD PREVAIL
STARTING AROUND 11Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

FOR KACT...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BRIEFLY TEMPO
FOR IFR CIGS BETWEEN 11-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  70  90  73  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              88  69  91  71  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             78  66  86  69  89 /  10   5  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            80  67  89  69  92 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  66  89  69  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  70  90  73  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           80  68  87  70  91 /  10   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  69  88  71  92 /  10  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            91  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  66  91  69  93 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 010825
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT USHERED IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
INTO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING... THE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND WAS PROVIDING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST REGION OF
THE STATE. FOR OUR AREA THOUGH...CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE THE
ONLY REMNANTS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS A
RESULT OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM. LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
BUT THEY WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST. THE CLOUD COVER WILL SCATTER
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSOLATION.
ADDITIONALLY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST DUE TO OUR PROXIMITY
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS WELL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE PLEASANT FOR THE AREA WITH LIGHT
EAST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OVER THE
WEEKEND SO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 90S. BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO BEGIN NUDGING CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND YIELD A RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE A RAPID RISE IN TEMPERATURES SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY...TAPPING INTO THE
WARM AND MOIST GULF AIR.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BY MIDWEEK...ENHANCED RAIN
CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF OF THE
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT THAT IS SHOWED IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE SHORTWAVE MAY
NOT GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND/OR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. BECAUSE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS IS 6 DAYS OUT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION PREVAILS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
FROM WHAT IS FORECAST FOR EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

AJS


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1149 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR AND IFR CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THE EASTERN METROPLEX AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KDFW...KDAL...AND
KGKY...ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW CIGS BELOW 2 KFT TONIGHT WITH
FURTHER LOWERING BELOW 1 KFT IN A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-4 KFT
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT
SOME BY FRIDAY EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

THE WESTERN METROPLEX AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KAFW AND KFTW...HAVE
BEEN SKIRTING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT WITH
PREVAILING CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. WILL TEMPO FOR LOWER CIGS BETWEEN
1-2 KFT FROM 07-11Z BUT CIGS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT SHOULD PREVAIL
STARTING AROUND 11Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

FOR KACT...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BRIEFLY TEMPO
FOR IFR CIGS BETWEEN 11-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  70  90  73  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              88  69  91  71  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             78  66  86  69  89 /  10   5  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            80  67  89  69  92 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          78  66  89  69  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  70  90  73  93 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           80  68  87  70  91 /  10   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  69  88  71  92 /  10  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            91  69  92  70  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  66  91  69  93 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010611 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
111 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z.
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT REACHING THE VCT
SITE EARLY...WITH DEVELOPMENT REACHING ALI-CRP-LRD DURING THE MID
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTHWARD. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR BKN CEILINGS THROUGH THE
DAY...HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  74  94  74  /  30  30  20  30  20
VICTORIA          74  91  71  93  72  /  30  30  20  30  20
LAREDO            79  99  78  99  78  /  30  30  20  30  20
ALICE             75  94  73  96  74  /  30  30  20  30  20
ROCKPORT          78  89  78  89  78  /  30  30  20  30  20
COTULLA           77  95  73  97  74  /  30  30  20  30  20
KINGSVILLE        76  94  74  95  74  /  30  30  20  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  88  78  90  78  /  30  30  20  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 010611 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
111 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z.
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT REACHING THE VCT
SITE EARLY...WITH DEVELOPMENT REACHING ALI-CRP-LRD DURING THE MID
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTHWARD. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR BKN CEILINGS THROUGH THE
DAY...HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  74  94  74  /  30  30  20  30  20
VICTORIA          74  91  71  93  72  /  30  30  20  30  20
LAREDO            79  99  78  99  78  /  30  30  20  30  20
ALICE             75  94  73  96  74  /  30  30  20  30  20
ROCKPORT          78  89  78  89  78  /  30  30  20  30  20
COTULLA           77  95  73  97  74  /  30  30  20  30  20
KINGSVILLE        76  94  74  95  74  /  30  30  20  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  88  78  90  78  /  30  30  20  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KBRO 010550 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1250 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINTAINED THE POSSIBILITY OF TEMPO MVFR AROUND
DAWN...THOUGH LIGHT WINDS MAY PRECLUDE A FULL MARINE INVERSION
FROM MOVING INLAND AND LOCKING IN EXTRA CLOUD COVER. THEREAFTER...
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A
FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWA. DEVELOPING LATE MORNING LOW
CLOUDS MAY PRESENT BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS HOWEVER. A WEAK FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY BUT MOST
POTENTIAL CONVECTION FOR THE DAY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE LOWER
VALLEY. PWAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES TODAY...NOT
ESPECIALLY CONVINCING OF MUCH ACTIVITY...AND WHATEVER DOES MANAGE
TO POP UP WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A STILL DRY LAYER ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...LOOKING FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH
AN EYE ON A POSSIBLE WEAK SEA BREEZE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...FAIRLY SIMPLE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD THEN
SOME POSSIBLE BUMPS IN THE ROAD AS WE MOVE LATER INTO FRIDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE USUAL EVENING SOUTHEAST GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
BETWEEN 02 AND 04Z AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PERHAPS A FEW
CUMULUS FORMING NEAR KBRO. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BOTH NAM/GFS
AND CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE AND FORECAST/OBSERVED SOUNDING
SUGGEST A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS WITHIN 2 HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND 12Z. CONFIDENCE NOT A
LOCK SO FOR NOW HAVE ROLLED A TEMPO GROUP WITH SCATTERED AS
PREVAILING.

AFTER SUNRISE...CLOUD LEVELS WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH LOWEST VALUES
TOWARD THE COAST UNTIL 16/17Z OR SO. STILL FORECASTING
SCATTERED...THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF BROKEN PERIODS
THROUGH NOON.

FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS OF THE FORECAST...18Z TO 00Z/AUG
2...THINGS COULD GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS WHEN THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WIND SURGE
ALONG HIGHWAY 77 REACHES KMFE AND SURROUNDING AREAS BY 21Z OR
SO...THE APPROACH OF THE SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH KEEPS
WINDS IN CHECK AND EXPECT VALUES TO HANG AT BARELY MODERATE
LEVELS...10 KNOTS OR SO. AT THE SAME TIME...LAYERED MOISTURE
ARRIVES/DEVELOPS FROM THE RANCHLANDS EAST TOWARD THE MID VALLEY
WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO `SEED` THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE
AND BRING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED STORMS. BOTH NAM AND GFS
CROSS-SECTIONS AND POINT SOUNDINGS BEAR THIS OUT...BUT COUNTERING
ARE PRIOR MODELS THAT HELD BACK ON THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

SO...DON`T BE SURPRISED IF A VICINTY THUNDERSTORM OR EVEN A PROB
GROUP (OR MORE) IS NEEDED FOR KMFE AND PERHAPS KHRL ON
FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A
BETTER READ WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE WHICH IS GENERALLY MORE
STABLE AS THE LATEST ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS
PROVIDE A BETTER BASELINE.
52/BSG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE UNUSUALLY EARLY COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY DROOPING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND WILL BE
STALLING TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SOUTHERLY BREEZES
ARE TURNING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE
TRIES TO IMPEDE WESTWARD...BUT DRY AIR IN THE REGION KEEPING IT
FROM SPARKING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS ATTM. FRONT STAYS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING...HELD IN CHECK BY THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
THE CONTINUED PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTH. MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT IS THE RAIN CHANCES. LIGHTER
WINDS TOMORROW WILL HELP THE SEABREEZE BECOME MORE FOCUSED AS IT
MOVES INLAND EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE VARIED IN THE AMOUNT OF
SEABREEZE PRECIPITATION BEING PRODUCED...GENERALLY DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.
HAVE FOCUSED PRECIPITATION ON THOSE AREAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH THE SLIGHTLY ACTIVE SEABREEZE AND ANY SHOWERS
THAT DRIFT SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT ITSELF INTO NORTHERN JIM HOGG
AND BROOKS COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASED AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...BUT LITTLE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES
WANE AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW WITH THE SEABREEZE DISSIPATING DUE TO
LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AFTER SUNSET...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SHOWS SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY FILLS. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES LOOSENS ITS CONTROL OVER THE REGION
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH THE RIDGE
WEST. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES AS MOISTURE POOLS AND PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND
2 INCHES. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. BELIEVE THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAINS NORTH OF THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY WITH MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND LIGHTER EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...A DECENT SEABEEZE
SHOULD DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE HOT THIS WEEKEND...THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THEY WILL BE MODERATED BY THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INLAND AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
NOT QUITE TOUCHING THE CENTURY MARK. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF
AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
RELAX FOR THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE WILL EXPIRE AT 6PM AND LIKELY
WILL NOT NEED ANY EXTENDING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND 10
KNOTS AREAWIDE. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 3 FEET WILL SLOWLY RELAX TO 1
TO 2 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TOMORROW WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES LATER TOMORROW...BRINGING SOME HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST
UPDATES CONCERNING ANY GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SEAS REMANING LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FEET. THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE MARINE
AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BE HIGHER IN
AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68





000
FXUS64 KMAF 010508
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1208 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning, w/bases 4-6 kft agl. Best chances of convection will be
west, where upslope effects will be pronounced. A few hours of
MVFR cigs will be possible at KCNM later this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

UPDATE...As of 6:45 PM CDT Thursday...have updated the
grids/forecast to lower PoPs across the CWA. KMAF radar is indc a
lone...weakening cell over Presidio County. Other than this
cell...the radar is clear across the CWA.

It just didn`t get warm enough to increase instability across the
area...and the upslope flow wasn`t enough to overcome the lack of
instability. Have kept the highest PoPs along the New Mexico
Mountains and adjoining Plains as well as the Mountains along the
Rio Grande where the cold front has basically stalled...and could
serve as a focus for any convective initiation.

Strobin

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions through the forecast with a light wind. Could
be a few storms overnight... mainly south near remains of frontal
boundary... but should not affect any TAF site.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently draped across the Rio Grander River. Much
cooler has filtered into southeast New Mexico and most of west
Texas behind this front with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler
at this time than yesterday afternoon. This front is forecast to
become nearly stationary through the weekend with temperatures
expected to be well below normal across the forecast area.

The bigger news this weekend is the potential for thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and
areas near the Rio Grande River near this stalled front. The
dirty upper level ridge centered across New Mexico and extreme
southwest Texas has slow moving upper level disturbances trapped
within it and this will continue to be the case through the weekend.
The combination of these slow moving disturbances coupled with the
stalled boundary and the higher topography could result in locally
heavy rainfall and or flash flooding in the aforementioned areas.
Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential for a flash
flood watch Friday and or Saturday. Unfortunately further east
away from the front and disturbances, the central and eastern
Permian Basin will probably receive little meaningful precipitation
amounts through the weekend.

A drying and warming trend is expected next Monday and Tuesday
due to the expected strengthening and drying of the upper ridge.
Temperatures are expected to climb back to near normal values by
Tuesday. By next Wednesday and Thursday more weakness is forecast
to develop within the ridge. The ECMWF is more pronounced with
this weakness. For now will go with a slight chance of thunderstorms
across the mountains and the immediate adjacent plains where
topography will be an advantage. Temperatures look to be at
least near normal, possibly a little above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS64 KMAF 010508
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1208 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.AVIATION...

Cool, easterly upslope sfc flow will prevail next 24 hours. Buffer
soundings develop a widespread cu field most locations by late
morning, w/bases 4-6 kft agl. Best chances of convection will be
west, where upslope effects will be pronounced. A few hours of
MVFR cigs will be possible at KCNM later this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

UPDATE...As of 6:45 PM CDT Thursday...have updated the
grids/forecast to lower PoPs across the CWA. KMAF radar is indc a
lone...weakening cell over Presidio County. Other than this
cell...the radar is clear across the CWA.

It just didn`t get warm enough to increase instability across the
area...and the upslope flow wasn`t enough to overcome the lack of
instability. Have kept the highest PoPs along the New Mexico
Mountains and adjoining Plains as well as the Mountains along the
Rio Grande where the cold front has basically stalled...and could
serve as a focus for any convective initiation.

Strobin

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions through the forecast with a light wind. Could
be a few storms overnight... mainly south near remains of frontal
boundary... but should not affect any TAF site.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently draped across the Rio Grander River. Much
cooler has filtered into southeast New Mexico and most of west
Texas behind this front with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler
at this time than yesterday afternoon. This front is forecast to
become nearly stationary through the weekend with temperatures
expected to be well below normal across the forecast area.

The bigger news this weekend is the potential for thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and
areas near the Rio Grande River near this stalled front. The
dirty upper level ridge centered across New Mexico and extreme
southwest Texas has slow moving upper level disturbances trapped
within it and this will continue to be the case through the weekend.
The combination of these slow moving disturbances coupled with the
stalled boundary and the higher topography could result in locally
heavy rainfall and or flash flooding in the aforementioned areas.
Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential for a flash
flood watch Friday and or Saturday. Unfortunately further east
away from the front and disturbances, the central and eastern
Permian Basin will probably receive little meaningful precipitation
amounts through the weekend.

A drying and warming trend is expected next Monday and Tuesday
due to the expected strengthening and drying of the upper ridge.
Temperatures are expected to climb back to near normal values by
Tuesday. By next Wednesday and Thursday more weakness is forecast
to develop within the ridge. The ECMWF is more pronounced with
this weakness. For now will go with a slight chance of thunderstorms
across the mountains and the immediate adjacent plains where
topography will be an advantage. Temperatures look to be at
least near normal, possibly a little above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS64 KHGX 010500
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS NOW MOVED OVER KIAH WITH OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING DISSIPATED OR WEAKENING. HIGH RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT MAKES A SECOND ATTEMPT TO PUSH SOUTHWARDS. LOOKS THAT FRONT
HAS STARTED ITS PUSH AS DEWPOINT AT KCLL HAS STARTED TO FALL AND
WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE NORTH. HIGH RES RAP AND HRRR REDEVELOP
PRECIP FROM KCXO SOUTHWARDS AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP FOR THE
INLAND SITES BY 10AM. NEAR THE COAST THE CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH MOISTURE/ SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAIN OVER THE AREA. STILL LEFT MENTION FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER AS
FAR INLAND AS KIAH THANKS TO NAM KEEPING PWAT VALUES AT 1.90".

FOR OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KCLL AND KUTS REDEVELOPMENT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY AS THE FRONT IS NEAR OR ALREADY THROUGH THE AREA.
KUTS IT WILL BE CLOSE THIS MORNING AS WINDS HAVE NOT YET SHIFTED.
23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
BEEN A BUSY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF RAIN AND ONE DAMAGE REPORT. RADAR
ESTIMATES IN THE POLK/SAN JACINTO/LIBERTY SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6.5 INCHES.

COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND A HEARNE TO TYLER LINE WITH THE
STORMS HAVING MOVED OFF THE BOUNDARY REINFORCING THE COLD POOL
WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STORMS COLLIDING WITH
THE SEABREEZE AND FOCUS THE RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE STORMS
HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AND 2 INCH PW AT GLS
STREAMING INTO THE CLUSTER IN EAST HARRIS-LIBERTY COUNTY. HAVE
CONCERNS THAT REDEVELOPMENT IS GOING TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT GETS A NUDGE LATER TONIGHT AND PUSHED THE FRONT
DOWN TOWARD THE COAST BY 15-18Z FRIDAY.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED THE HRRR/RUC OF LATE WHICH HAVE DONE A
GOOD JOB AND SHOW THIS REDEVELOPMENT SCENARIO...GENERALLY RAISED
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND CONTINUED THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

45/23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INTO COLLEGE STATION AND
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED INITIALIZING AS ALL BUT THE RAP MISSED
THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIP NEAR KSGR/ KLBX. BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS RAP WITH EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST LIKELY THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO KIAH AND KHOU IN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. LOOKS LIKE MOST TAF SITES WILL
SEE THUNDER WITH KLBX AND KGLS STILL IN QUESTION ON WHETHER
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT OR NOT. GLOBAL MODELS THEN BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON HOW THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TOMORROW MORNING. THE GFS
PLUNGES THE DRIER AIR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE
DRIER AIR UP JUST AROUND KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT RAIN
COULD LINGER AROUND NEAR AND SOUTH OF KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE GFS
IS RIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED MORE NEAR THE COAST. FUTURE
TAF PACKAGES WILL WORK TO NARROW DOWN WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. EITHER WAY BEHIND THE FONT PRECIP LOOKS TO COME TO AN
END. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION
TO MADISONVILLE HAVE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OFF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY MOVING AT 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SE.
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE METRO MARCHING
INLAND AND THE COLLISION AREA LOOKS TO FAVOR SOMETHING 20 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO CUT AND SHOOT TO
LIVINGSTON. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS CORRIDOR. PW 2+ INCHES POOLED IN THERE
AND A BOUNDARY COLLISION LOOK TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW AND SOME BACKBUILDING MAY
OCCUR...LATEST SPENES HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS WELL.
45/23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  73  89  71  90 /  50  30  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  75  90  73  90 /  40  60  40  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  87  79  89 /  20  40  30  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010500
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS NOW MOVED OVER KIAH WITH OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENING DISSIPATED OR WEAKENING. HIGH RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT MAKES A SECOND ATTEMPT TO PUSH SOUTHWARDS. LOOKS THAT FRONT
HAS STARTED ITS PUSH AS DEWPOINT AT KCLL HAS STARTED TO FALL AND
WINDS ARE NOW OUT OF THE NORTH. HIGH RES RAP AND HRRR REDEVELOP
PRECIP FROM KCXO SOUTHWARDS AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP FOR THE
INLAND SITES BY 10AM. NEAR THE COAST THE CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH MOISTURE/ SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAIN OVER THE AREA. STILL LEFT MENTION FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER AS
FAR INLAND AS KIAH THANKS TO NAM KEEPING PWAT VALUES AT 1.90".

FOR OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KCLL AND KUTS REDEVELOPMENT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY AS THE FRONT IS NEAR OR ALREADY THROUGH THE AREA.
KUTS IT WILL BE CLOSE THIS MORNING AS WINDS HAVE NOT YET SHIFTED.
23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
BEEN A BUSY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF RAIN AND ONE DAMAGE REPORT. RADAR
ESTIMATES IN THE POLK/SAN JACINTO/LIBERTY SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6.5 INCHES.

COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND A HEARNE TO TYLER LINE WITH THE
STORMS HAVING MOVED OFF THE BOUNDARY REINFORCING THE COLD POOL
WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STORMS COLLIDING WITH
THE SEABREEZE AND FOCUS THE RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE STORMS
HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AND 2 INCH PW AT GLS
STREAMING INTO THE CLUSTER IN EAST HARRIS-LIBERTY COUNTY. HAVE
CONCERNS THAT REDEVELOPMENT IS GOING TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT GETS A NUDGE LATER TONIGHT AND PUSHED THE FRONT
DOWN TOWARD THE COAST BY 15-18Z FRIDAY.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED THE HRRR/RUC OF LATE WHICH HAVE DONE A
GOOD JOB AND SHOW THIS REDEVELOPMENT SCENARIO...GENERALLY RAISED
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND CONTINUED THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

45/23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INTO COLLEGE STATION AND
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED INITIALIZING AS ALL BUT THE RAP MISSED
THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIP NEAR KSGR/ KLBX. BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS RAP WITH EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST LIKELY THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO KIAH AND KHOU IN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. LOOKS LIKE MOST TAF SITES WILL
SEE THUNDER WITH KLBX AND KGLS STILL IN QUESTION ON WHETHER
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT OR NOT. GLOBAL MODELS THEN BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON HOW THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TOMORROW MORNING. THE GFS
PLUNGES THE DRIER AIR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE
DRIER AIR UP JUST AROUND KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT RAIN
COULD LINGER AROUND NEAR AND SOUTH OF KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE GFS
IS RIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED MORE NEAR THE COAST. FUTURE
TAF PACKAGES WILL WORK TO NARROW DOWN WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. EITHER WAY BEHIND THE FONT PRECIP LOOKS TO COME TO AN
END. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION
TO MADISONVILLE HAVE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OFF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY MOVING AT 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SE.
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE METRO MARCHING
INLAND AND THE COLLISION AREA LOOKS TO FAVOR SOMETHING 20 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO CUT AND SHOOT TO
LIVINGSTON. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS CORRIDOR. PW 2+ INCHES POOLED IN THERE
AND A BOUNDARY COLLISION LOOK TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW AND SOME BACKBUILDING MAY
OCCUR...LATEST SPENES HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS WELL.
45/23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  73  89  71  90 /  50  30  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  75  90  73  90 /  40  60  40  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  87  79  89 /  20  40  30  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23



000
FXUS64 KEWX 010455
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 06Z TAFS/
STABILITY INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND REDUCED THE EFFECTS
OF CONVECTION ON CLOUDS. LOOKING AT THE VAD WIND PROFILE...THE
FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE WINDS IN A DEEPER LAYER THAN
ACCOUNTED FOR...SO WILL SHIFT BACK THE RETURN OF I-35 LOW CLOUDS
FOR AN HOUR FROM THE PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS. WITH STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...IT MAY BE POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SEE NO MVFR CIGS AT ALL. MVFR CIGS ARE A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIE OFF EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE COASTAL PLAINS. WE FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE POPS
EXCEPT FOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO RE-TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...
EXCEPT FOR ALSO ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 90. HIGHER POPS ARE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING.
OTHERWISE...WE RE-TRENDED THE FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT STILL
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AND MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR A
TEMPLE TO FREDERICKSBURG TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
MEAGER ALONG THE FRONT THUS FAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
HOWEVER...HI RESOLUTION MODELS INSIST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM AS THE FRONT REACHES
A MORE UNSTABLE REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS TO A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST POSITION.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED AND SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CALDWELL TO SOUTH AUSTIN TO MEDINA LINE.
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE CURRENTLY ANALYZED...2-2.2
INCHES OF PWAT...PRECIP LOADING.

FRONT SLOWS AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEAR THE I-10/U.S. 90 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND RIO GRANDE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND UP THE RIO GRANDE...CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. DRIER LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS BEING CONFINED ON
SATURDAY TO THE RIO GRANDE AND ON SUNDAY TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW POP WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AND LOCATIONS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS "COOL" FOR AUGUST...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
DEEP SOUTH. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  90  73 /  10  10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  92  71  90  72 /  10  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  70  88  70 /  10  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  93  76  90  75 /  20  30  30  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  89  70  89  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  93  73  92  71 /  20  20  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  71  90  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  71  89  72 /  60  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  92  74  91  74 /  20  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  92  74  92  73 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 010455
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 06Z TAFS/
STABILITY INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND REDUCED THE EFFECTS
OF CONVECTION ON CLOUDS. LOOKING AT THE VAD WIND PROFILE...THE
FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE WINDS IN A DEEPER LAYER THAN
ACCOUNTED FOR...SO WILL SHIFT BACK THE RETURN OF I-35 LOW CLOUDS
FOR AN HOUR FROM THE PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS. WITH STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...IT MAY BE POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SEE NO MVFR CIGS AT ALL. MVFR CIGS ARE A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIE OFF EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE COASTAL PLAINS. WE FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE POPS
EXCEPT FOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO RE-TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...
EXCEPT FOR ALSO ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 90. HIGHER POPS ARE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING.
OTHERWISE...WE RE-TRENDED THE FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT STILL
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AND MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR A
TEMPLE TO FREDERICKSBURG TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
MEAGER ALONG THE FRONT THUS FAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
HOWEVER...HI RESOLUTION MODELS INSIST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM AS THE FRONT REACHES
A MORE UNSTABLE REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS TO A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST POSITION.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED AND SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CALDWELL TO SOUTH AUSTIN TO MEDINA LINE.
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE CURRENTLY ANALYZED...2-2.2
INCHES OF PWAT...PRECIP LOADING.

FRONT SLOWS AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEAR THE I-10/U.S. 90 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND RIO GRANDE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND UP THE RIO GRANDE...CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. DRIER LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS BEING CONFINED ON
SATURDAY TO THE RIO GRANDE AND ON SUNDAY TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW POP WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AND LOCATIONS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS "COOL" FOR AUGUST...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
DEEP SOUTH. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  90  73 /  10  10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  92  71  90  72 /  10  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  70  88  70 /  10  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  93  76  90  75 /  20  30  30  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  89  70  89  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  93  73  92  71 /  20  20  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  71  90  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  71  89  72 /  60  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  92  74  91  74 /  20  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  92  74  92  73 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 010455
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 06Z TAFS/
STABILITY INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND REDUCED THE EFFECTS
OF CONVECTION ON CLOUDS. LOOKING AT THE VAD WIND PROFILE...THE
FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE WINDS IN A DEEPER LAYER THAN
ACCOUNTED FOR...SO WILL SHIFT BACK THE RETURN OF I-35 LOW CLOUDS
FOR AN HOUR FROM THE PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS. WITH STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...IT MAY BE POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SEE NO MVFR CIGS AT ALL. MVFR CIGS ARE A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIE OFF EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE COASTAL PLAINS. WE FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE POPS
EXCEPT FOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO RE-TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...
EXCEPT FOR ALSO ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 90. HIGHER POPS ARE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING.
OTHERWISE...WE RE-TRENDED THE FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT STILL
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AND MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR A
TEMPLE TO FREDERICKSBURG TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
MEAGER ALONG THE FRONT THUS FAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
HOWEVER...HI RESOLUTION MODELS INSIST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM AS THE FRONT REACHES
A MORE UNSTABLE REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS TO A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST POSITION.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED AND SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CALDWELL TO SOUTH AUSTIN TO MEDINA LINE.
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE CURRENTLY ANALYZED...2-2.2
INCHES OF PWAT...PRECIP LOADING.

FRONT SLOWS AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEAR THE I-10/U.S. 90 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND RIO GRANDE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND UP THE RIO GRANDE...CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. DRIER LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS BEING CONFINED ON
SATURDAY TO THE RIO GRANDE AND ON SUNDAY TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW POP WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AND LOCATIONS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS "COOL" FOR AUGUST...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
DEEP SOUTH. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  90  73 /  10  10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  92  71  90  72 /  10  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  70  88  70 /  10  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  93  76  90  75 /  20  30  30  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  89  70  89  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  93  73  92  71 /  20  20  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  71  90  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  71  89  72 /  60  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  92  74  91  74 /  20  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  92  74  92  73 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 010455
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 06Z TAFS/
STABILITY INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND REDUCED THE EFFECTS
OF CONVECTION ON CLOUDS. LOOKING AT THE VAD WIND PROFILE...THE
FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE WINDS IN A DEEPER LAYER THAN
ACCOUNTED FOR...SO WILL SHIFT BACK THE RETURN OF I-35 LOW CLOUDS
FOR AN HOUR FROM THE PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS. WITH STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...IT MAY BE POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SEE NO MVFR CIGS AT ALL. MVFR CIGS ARE A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIE OFF EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE COASTAL PLAINS. WE FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE POPS
EXCEPT FOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO RE-TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...
EXCEPT FOR ALSO ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 90. HIGHER POPS ARE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING.
OTHERWISE...WE RE-TRENDED THE FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT STILL
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AND MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR A
TEMPLE TO FREDERICKSBURG TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
MEAGER ALONG THE FRONT THUS FAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
HOWEVER...HI RESOLUTION MODELS INSIST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM AS THE FRONT REACHES
A MORE UNSTABLE REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS TO A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST POSITION.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED AND SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CALDWELL TO SOUTH AUSTIN TO MEDINA LINE.
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE CURRENTLY ANALYZED...2-2.2
INCHES OF PWAT...PRECIP LOADING.

FRONT SLOWS AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEAR THE I-10/U.S. 90 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND RIO GRANDE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND UP THE RIO GRANDE...CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. DRIER LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS BEING CONFINED ON
SATURDAY TO THE RIO GRANDE AND ON SUNDAY TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW POP WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AND LOCATIONS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS "COOL" FOR AUGUST...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
DEEP SOUTH. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  90  73 /  10  10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  92  71  90  72 /  10  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  70  88  70 /  10  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  93  76  90  75 /  20  30  30  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  89  70  89  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  93  73  92  71 /  20  20  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  71  90  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  71  89  72 /  60  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  92  74  91  74 /  20  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  92  74  92  73 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KFWD 010449 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1149 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR AND IFR CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THE EASTERN METROPLEX AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KDFW...KDAL...AND
KGKY...ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW CIGS BELOW 2 KFT TONIGHT WITH
FURTHER LOWERING BELOW 1 KFT IN A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-4 KFT
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT
SOME BY FRIDAY EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

THE WESTERN METROPLEX AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KAFW AND KFTW...HAVE
BEEN SKIRTING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT WITH
PREVAILING CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. WILL TEMPO FOR LOWER CIGS BETWEEN
1-2 KFT FROM 07-11Z BUT CIGS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT SHOULD PREVAIL
STARTING AROUND 11Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

FOR KACT...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BRIEFLY TEMPO
FOR IFR CIGS BETWEEN 11-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT CONTINUED MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE CWA AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVED INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED OUT OF THE
CWA ALONG WITH THE BETTER FORCING. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WAS
FILTERING SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE NOW
TAKING HOLD ACROSS MUCH THE OF AREA. ISENTROPIC FORECASTS INDICATE
VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
THOSE AREAS.

THE CURRENT STRATUS SHOULD MAINTAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE OR DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD WITH COOLING BEING
VERY GRADUAL UNDER THE PERSISTENT STRATUS.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY COOL AND CLOUDY DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED VERY NEAR ATHENS AND COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TX/LA
BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHERLY FLOW.
EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN IS
RATHER INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NEVER
REALLY GETS OUT OF CONTROL...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES KEEPING IT
IN CHECK. MEANWHILE...A PRONOUNCED TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUD COVER AND BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM INTO THE MID
90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER HEIGHTS DEVELOPING AND LINGERING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING WESTERN U.S. RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES
SOMETHING THAT WE USUALLY SEE TOWARD THE END OF SUMMER WHEN A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT THROUGH MIDDLE AUGUST BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK WITH MORE RAIN
CHANCES ON THE HORIZON.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              68  88  70  92  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             65  81  65  88  67 /  10  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            65  86  67  90  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          64  85  66  90  68 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  85  68  89  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  85  69  89  69 /  10  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  90  69  93  71 /  10  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  89  66  92  68 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 010449 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1149 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR AND IFR CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THE EASTERN METROPLEX AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KDFW...KDAL...AND
KGKY...ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW CIGS BELOW 2 KFT TONIGHT WITH
FURTHER LOWERING BELOW 1 KFT IN A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-4 KFT
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT
SOME BY FRIDAY EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

THE WESTERN METROPLEX AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KAFW AND KFTW...HAVE
BEEN SKIRTING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT WITH
PREVAILING CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. WILL TEMPO FOR LOWER CIGS BETWEEN
1-2 KFT FROM 07-11Z BUT CIGS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT SHOULD PREVAIL
STARTING AROUND 11Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

FOR KACT...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BRIEFLY TEMPO
FOR IFR CIGS BETWEEN 11-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT CONTINUED MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE CWA AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVED INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED OUT OF THE
CWA ALONG WITH THE BETTER FORCING. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WAS
FILTERING SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE NOW
TAKING HOLD ACROSS MUCH THE OF AREA. ISENTROPIC FORECASTS INDICATE
VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
THOSE AREAS.

THE CURRENT STRATUS SHOULD MAINTAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE OR DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD WITH COOLING BEING
VERY GRADUAL UNDER THE PERSISTENT STRATUS.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY COOL AND CLOUDY DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED VERY NEAR ATHENS AND COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TX/LA
BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHERLY FLOW.
EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN IS
RATHER INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NEVER
REALLY GETS OUT OF CONTROL...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES KEEPING IT
IN CHECK. MEANWHILE...A PRONOUNCED TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUD COVER AND BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM INTO THE MID
90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER HEIGHTS DEVELOPING AND LINGERING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING WESTERN U.S. RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES
SOMETHING THAT WE USUALLY SEE TOWARD THE END OF SUMMER WHEN A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT THROUGH MIDDLE AUGUST BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK WITH MORE RAIN
CHANCES ON THE HORIZON.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              68  88  70  92  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             65  81  65  88  67 /  10  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            65  86  67  90  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          64  85  66  90  68 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  85  68  89  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  85  69  89  69 /  10  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  90  69  93  71 /  10  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  89  66  92  68 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 010449 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1149 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR AND IFR CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THE EASTERN METROPLEX AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KDFW...KDAL...AND
KGKY...ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW CIGS BELOW 2 KFT TONIGHT WITH
FURTHER LOWERING BELOW 1 KFT IN A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-4 KFT
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT
SOME BY FRIDAY EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

THE WESTERN METROPLEX AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KAFW AND KFTW...HAVE
BEEN SKIRTING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT WITH
PREVAILING CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. WILL TEMPO FOR LOWER CIGS BETWEEN
1-2 KFT FROM 07-11Z BUT CIGS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT SHOULD PREVAIL
STARTING AROUND 11Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

FOR KACT...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BRIEFLY TEMPO
FOR IFR CIGS BETWEEN 11-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT CONTINUED MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE CWA AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVED INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED OUT OF THE
CWA ALONG WITH THE BETTER FORCING. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WAS
FILTERING SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE NOW
TAKING HOLD ACROSS MUCH THE OF AREA. ISENTROPIC FORECASTS INDICATE
VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
THOSE AREAS.

THE CURRENT STRATUS SHOULD MAINTAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE OR DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD WITH COOLING BEING
VERY GRADUAL UNDER THE PERSISTENT STRATUS.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY COOL AND CLOUDY DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED VERY NEAR ATHENS AND COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TX/LA
BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHERLY FLOW.
EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN IS
RATHER INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NEVER
REALLY GETS OUT OF CONTROL...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES KEEPING IT
IN CHECK. MEANWHILE...A PRONOUNCED TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUD COVER AND BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM INTO THE MID
90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER HEIGHTS DEVELOPING AND LINGERING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING WESTERN U.S. RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES
SOMETHING THAT WE USUALLY SEE TOWARD THE END OF SUMMER WHEN A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT THROUGH MIDDLE AUGUST BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK WITH MORE RAIN
CHANCES ON THE HORIZON.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              68  88  70  92  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             65  81  65  88  67 /  10  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            65  86  67  90  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          64  85  66  90  68 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  85  68  89  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  85  69  89  69 /  10  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  90  69  93  71 /  10  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  89  66  92  68 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 010449 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1149 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR AND IFR CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THE EASTERN METROPLEX AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KDFW...KDAL...AND
KGKY...ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW CIGS BELOW 2 KFT TONIGHT WITH
FURTHER LOWERING BELOW 1 KFT IN A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3-4 KFT
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT
SOME BY FRIDAY EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

THE WESTERN METROPLEX AIRPORTS...INCLUDING KAFW AND KFTW...HAVE
BEEN SKIRTING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BUILD BACK IN OVERNIGHT WITH
PREVAILING CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT. WILL TEMPO FOR LOWER CIGS BETWEEN
1-2 KFT FROM 07-11Z BUT CIGS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT SHOULD PREVAIL
STARTING AROUND 11Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

FOR KACT...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BRIEFLY TEMPO
FOR IFR CIGS BETWEEN 11-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT CONTINUED MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE CWA AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVED INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED OUT OF THE
CWA ALONG WITH THE BETTER FORCING. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WAS
FILTERING SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE NOW
TAKING HOLD ACROSS MUCH THE OF AREA. ISENTROPIC FORECASTS INDICATE
VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
THOSE AREAS.

THE CURRENT STRATUS SHOULD MAINTAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE OR DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD WITH COOLING BEING
VERY GRADUAL UNDER THE PERSISTENT STRATUS.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY COOL AND CLOUDY DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED VERY NEAR ATHENS AND COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TX/LA
BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHERLY FLOW.
EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN IS
RATHER INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NEVER
REALLY GETS OUT OF CONTROL...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES KEEPING IT
IN CHECK. MEANWHILE...A PRONOUNCED TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUD COVER AND BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM INTO THE MID
90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER HEIGHTS DEVELOPING AND LINGERING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING WESTERN U.S. RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES
SOMETHING THAT WE USUALLY SEE TOWARD THE END OF SUMMER WHEN A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT THROUGH MIDDLE AUGUST BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK WITH MORE RAIN
CHANCES ON THE HORIZON.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              68  88  70  92  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             65  81  65  88  67 /  10  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            65  86  67  90  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          64  85  66  90  68 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  85  68  89  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  85  69  89  69 /  10  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  90  69  93  71 /  10  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  89  66  92  68 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/05






000
FXUS64 KLUB 010442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS WEST
TEXAS OVERIGHT WITH ADDED MID LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY FRI.
THIS WILL ACT TO INHIBIT ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THUS
TAFS REMAIN VFR FOR NEXT 24HRS WITH WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING ERLY ON FRI WITH SPEEDS <10KT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET AND COOL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY AS COOL AND
DRY AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH NOON FRIDAY WHEN RIDGE WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD. FOR TONIGHT...A LOOK WEST SHOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS FORMING ON THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN NM AS WELL AS THE
SACRAMENTOS OF SRN NM. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY STABLE AIR THERE MAKING
FOR A SLOW START RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS. FLOW ALOFT ABOUT 20 KTS
FROM THE NW...BUT CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO EVEN MORE STABLE
AIR WITH LOW LEVEL DEW POINT MINIMA AND VERY WEAK SFC WINDS ACROSS
FAR ERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE. WOULD EXPECT LITTLE ORGANIZATION AS
THESE STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAMPER THEIR LONGEVITY
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT THEY ARE MOVING INTO. SO...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOMETHING MAKING IT INTO THE WRN ZONES TONIGHT...CHANCES
LOOK VERY SLIM AND WILL PULL MENTION FROM THE FCST.

BY FRIDAY AFTN...WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SE BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THICKNESS VALUES CHANGE LITTLE WITH NO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION INDICATED...SO TEMPS NEAR TO JUST A TOUCH
ABOVE TODAY. WRFNAM-BASED OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CERTAINLY LOOKS FAR TOO
WARM WITH THE GFS-BASED AVNMOS LOOKING BETTER...BUT EVEN THEN A
TOUCH TOO WARM. LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA INTO ERN NM...BUT APPEARS THAT INITIATION
ZONE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE LINE. SO ANOTHER COOL AND FAIR
DAY EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK.

LONG TERM...
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH WEST TEXAS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENINGS. ANY CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NEW MEXICO WILL BE PROGRESSING INTO A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SUSTAINING CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE MINIMUM IN LOW
LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WITH WEST TEXAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER
SURFACE RIDGING. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON FRIDAY THAN
COMPARED TO SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL BE LOW NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN TURN DRIER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REPOSITIONING ITSELF OVERHEAD. AS THIS RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE THAT TERRIBLY STRONG. TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND BY EARLY AUGUST STANDARDS.

AROUND MIDWEEK...MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE GFS MODEL IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN US AND IS THUS LESS BULLISH WITH
THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND IS SLOWER WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN INDICATING HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT MUCH HELP HERE AS
THE SPREAD INDICATES EITHER A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OR SLOWER
PATTERN AS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS. A FEW
SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MAY ALSO SPUR SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  80  59  79  61 /  10  10  20  10  10
TULIA         57  81  60  81  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     58  81  62  81  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     61  83  63  82  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       61  83  63  83  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   61  86  61  83  63 /  10  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    62  86  63  84  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     63  84  65  86  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          63  84  64  85  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     66  86  66  90  67 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99






000
FXUS64 KLUB 010442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS WEST
TEXAS OVERIGHT WITH ADDED MID LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY FRI.
THIS WILL ACT TO INHIBIT ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THUS
TAFS REMAIN VFR FOR NEXT 24HRS WITH WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING ERLY ON FRI WITH SPEEDS <10KT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET AND COOL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY AS COOL AND
DRY AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH NOON FRIDAY WHEN RIDGE WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD. FOR TONIGHT...A LOOK WEST SHOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS FORMING ON THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN NM AS WELL AS THE
SACRAMENTOS OF SRN NM. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY STABLE AIR THERE MAKING
FOR A SLOW START RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS. FLOW ALOFT ABOUT 20 KTS
FROM THE NW...BUT CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO EVEN MORE STABLE
AIR WITH LOW LEVEL DEW POINT MINIMA AND VERY WEAK SFC WINDS ACROSS
FAR ERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE. WOULD EXPECT LITTLE ORGANIZATION AS
THESE STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAMPER THEIR LONGEVITY
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT THEY ARE MOVING INTO. SO...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOMETHING MAKING IT INTO THE WRN ZONES TONIGHT...CHANCES
LOOK VERY SLIM AND WILL PULL MENTION FROM THE FCST.

BY FRIDAY AFTN...WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SE BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THICKNESS VALUES CHANGE LITTLE WITH NO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION INDICATED...SO TEMPS NEAR TO JUST A TOUCH
ABOVE TODAY. WRFNAM-BASED OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CERTAINLY LOOKS FAR TOO
WARM WITH THE GFS-BASED AVNMOS LOOKING BETTER...BUT EVEN THEN A
TOUCH TOO WARM. LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA INTO ERN NM...BUT APPEARS THAT INITIATION
ZONE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE LINE. SO ANOTHER COOL AND FAIR
DAY EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK.

LONG TERM...
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH WEST TEXAS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENINGS. ANY CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NEW MEXICO WILL BE PROGRESSING INTO A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SUSTAINING CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE MINIMUM IN LOW
LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WITH WEST TEXAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER
SURFACE RIDGING. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON FRIDAY THAN
COMPARED TO SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL BE LOW NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN TURN DRIER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REPOSITIONING ITSELF OVERHEAD. AS THIS RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE THAT TERRIBLY STRONG. TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND BY EARLY AUGUST STANDARDS.

AROUND MIDWEEK...MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE GFS MODEL IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN US AND IS THUS LESS BULLISH WITH
THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND IS SLOWER WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN INDICATING HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT MUCH HELP HERE AS
THE SPREAD INDICATES EITHER A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OR SLOWER
PATTERN AS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS. A FEW
SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MAY ALSO SPUR SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  80  59  79  61 /  10  10  20  10  10
TULIA         57  81  60  81  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     58  81  62  81  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     61  83  63  82  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       61  83  63  83  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   61  86  61  83  63 /  10  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    62  86  63  84  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     63  84  65  86  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          63  84  64  85  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     66  86  66  90  67 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 010430
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1130 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Ceilings around 4000ft are lingering from KABI to KBWD with
scattered high clouds elsewhere across West Central TX. High
clouds will increase overnight as convective debris from NM
convection moves southeast, however, no precipitation is expected
at the forecast terminals through the TAF period. Any storms that
develop are expected to be south and west of KSOA and KSJT. Expect
light northeast winds, generally remaining 10 kts or less,
through Friday evening.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
Removed chance of precipitation from southern counties through the
remainder of the night.

DISCUSSION...
The cold front has moved well south of the I10 corridor into south
Texas. Shower activity associated with the front is now well south
of the CWA, have removed chance of precipitation through the
remainder of the night. Have updated temperatures, dew points, winds
and associated parameters for the rest of the night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The low ceilings from earlier today have improved to 3500 ft or
greater. This cloud deck will continue to thin and shift east
overnight, with VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period.
Convection along the cold front should remain south of I-10, posing
minimal threat to the KSOA and KJCT terminals. Winds will be from a
general north to northeast direction at 10 kts or less once the sun
sets, remaining light through Friday afternoon.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

The surface front will remain well south of the forecast area
tonight, however the 850mb front will be situated along our
southern border. Models showing precip over our southern
counties tonight and this seems reasonable given the position of
the front and overrunning just north of it. Maintained a slight
chance of precipitation across the Interstate 10 corridor and
south tonight and Friday.

Light northerly winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies will
prevail tonight. Overnight lows tonight will be slightly below
normal with temperatures mainly in the 60s. On Friday, below
normal temperatures will continue. Expect partly cloudy skies to
persist with upper 80s to near 90.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

A slow warm up will ensue this weekend into early next week. Below
normal temperatures are forecast to continue this weekend, with
highs on Saturday in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and in lower 90s
for most locations on Sunday. Overnight lows will be slightly
below seasonal normals, in the mid to upper 60s. The remnant cold
front will be located from south Texas, into the mountains of West
Texas late Friday into Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop along and behind this boundary, mainly to our
south and west. I went ahead and continued the slight chance PoPs
for mainly the northern Edwards Plateau, Friday night and
Saturday.

A steady warm up is forecast next week, although temperatures will
remain near seasonal normals. High temperatures by mid week will
be in the mid 90s across much of the area, with lows generally in
the lower 70s. High pressure will dominate, with rain chances
remaining minimal through at least the middle of next week. Models
continue to indicate an upper level trough moving from the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region late next week. This
results in a cold front moving south through the Plains Thursday
into Friday. The ECMWF continues to be most aggressive, bringing
the front into West Central Texas on Friday. This would result in
slightly cooler temperatures and the possibility of precipitation.
For now, I have added in slight chance PoPs across the northern
Big Country on day 7, and these may need to be expanded if models
come into better agreement on a wetter solution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  87  66  89  67 /  10   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  66  90  67  91  68 /  10  10  10  10   5
Junction  70  91  68  91  67 /  10  10  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/99/99







000
FXUS64 KSJT 010430
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1130 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Ceilings around 4000ft are lingering from KABI to KBWD with
scattered high clouds elsewhere across West Central TX. High
clouds will increase overnight as convective debris from NM
convection moves southeast, however, no precipitation is expected
at the forecast terminals through the TAF period. Any storms that
develop are expected to be south and west of KSOA and KSJT. Expect
light northeast winds, generally remaining 10 kts or less,
through Friday evening.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
Removed chance of precipitation from southern counties through the
remainder of the night.

DISCUSSION...
The cold front has moved well south of the I10 corridor into south
Texas. Shower activity associated with the front is now well south
of the CWA, have removed chance of precipitation through the
remainder of the night. Have updated temperatures, dew points, winds
and associated parameters for the rest of the night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The low ceilings from earlier today have improved to 3500 ft or
greater. This cloud deck will continue to thin and shift east
overnight, with VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period.
Convection along the cold front should remain south of I-10, posing
minimal threat to the KSOA and KJCT terminals. Winds will be from a
general north to northeast direction at 10 kts or less once the sun
sets, remaining light through Friday afternoon.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

The surface front will remain well south of the forecast area
tonight, however the 850mb front will be situated along our
southern border. Models showing precip over our southern
counties tonight and this seems reasonable given the position of
the front and overrunning just north of it. Maintained a slight
chance of precipitation across the Interstate 10 corridor and
south tonight and Friday.

Light northerly winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies will
prevail tonight. Overnight lows tonight will be slightly below
normal with temperatures mainly in the 60s. On Friday, below
normal temperatures will continue. Expect partly cloudy skies to
persist with upper 80s to near 90.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

A slow warm up will ensue this weekend into early next week. Below
normal temperatures are forecast to continue this weekend, with
highs on Saturday in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and in lower 90s
for most locations on Sunday. Overnight lows will be slightly
below seasonal normals, in the mid to upper 60s. The remnant cold
front will be located from south Texas, into the mountains of West
Texas late Friday into Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop along and behind this boundary, mainly to our
south and west. I went ahead and continued the slight chance PoPs
for mainly the northern Edwards Plateau, Friday night and
Saturday.

A steady warm up is forecast next week, although temperatures will
remain near seasonal normals. High temperatures by mid week will
be in the mid 90s across much of the area, with lows generally in
the lower 70s. High pressure will dominate, with rain chances
remaining minimal through at least the middle of next week. Models
continue to indicate an upper level trough moving from the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region late next week. This
results in a cold front moving south through the Plains Thursday
into Friday. The ECMWF continues to be most aggressive, bringing
the front into West Central Texas on Friday. This would result in
slightly cooler temperatures and the possibility of precipitation.
For now, I have added in slight chance PoPs across the northern
Big Country on day 7, and these may need to be expanded if models
come into better agreement on a wetter solution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  87  66  89  67 /  10   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  66  90  67  91  68 /  10  10  10  10   5
Junction  70  91  68  91  67 /  10  10  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/99/99








000
FXUS64 KEWX 010427
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1127 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIE OFF EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ON THE COASTAL PLAINS. WE FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE POPS
EXCEPT FOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO RE-TREND THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...
EXCEPT FOR ALSO ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 90. HIGHER POPS ARE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING.
OTHERWISE...WE RE-TRENDED THE FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR DRT...AND ADDITIONAL CELLS COULD
REFORM IN THE VCNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER EAST...SAT
ALSO HAS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 25 MILES...BUT SHORT STORM LIFE
AND SOME BACKWARD PROPAGATION CHARACTERISTICS MAKE THE IMPACTS
LESS CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THERE WILL BE AN
ISOLATED CHANCE AT AUS/SAT/SSF OVER A WIDE TIME RANGE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. LOW CLOUDS ARE SUGGESTED BY RAW DATA
AND GUIDANCES TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF
LOW CLOUDS COULD BE DISRUPTED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AT SSF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT STILL
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AND MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR A
TEMPLE TO FREDERICKSBURG TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
MEAGER ALONG THE FRONT THUS FAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
HOWEVER...HI RESOLUTION MODELS INSIST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM AS THE FRONT REACHES
A MORE UNSTABLE REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS TO A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST POSITION.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED AND SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CALDWELL TO SOUTH AUSTIN TO MEDINA LINE.
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE CURRENTLY ANALYZED...2-2.2
INCHES OF PWAT...PRECIP LOADING.

FRONT SLOWS AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEAR THE I-10/U.S. 90 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND RIO GRANDE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND UP THE RIO GRANDE...CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. DRIER LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS BEING CONFINED ON
SATURDAY TO THE RIO GRANDE AND ON SUNDAY TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW POP WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AND LOCATIONS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS "COOL" FOR AUGUST...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
DEEP SOUTH. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  90  73 /  10  10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  92  71  90  72 /  10  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  70  88  70 /  10  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  93  76  90  75 /  20  30  30  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  89  70  89  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  93  73  92  71 /  20  20  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  71  90  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  71  89  72 /  60  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  92  74  91  74 /  20  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  92  74  92  73 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26





000
FXUS64 KAMA 010411 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1111 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
SOME LOW CLOUDS OR FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL STAY
TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A VFR FORECAST.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE AND BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY...BUT
SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND UNDER 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP TROUGH TO THE EAST. IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STEERED FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OUT OF ANY OF THESE STORMS...AND IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THEY
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FLATTENS OUT...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL BRING ANOTHER DECENT SUMMER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES...SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY DEPENDING ON
YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE AN
INITIAL PUSH WEDNESDAY AND THEN A FINAL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS
WITH THE OTHER COLD FRONTS THIS SUMMER...FEEL CONFIDENT IN A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 010411 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1111 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
SOME LOW CLOUDS OR FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW BELIEVE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL STAY
TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A VFR FORECAST.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE AND BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY...BUT
SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND UNDER 10 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP TROUGH TO THE EAST. IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STEERED FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OUT OF ANY OF THESE STORMS...AND IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THEY
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FLATTENS OUT...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL BRING ANOTHER DECENT SUMMER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES...SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY DEPENDING ON
YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE AN
INITIAL PUSH WEDNESDAY AND THEN A FINAL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS
WITH THE OTHER COLD FRONTS THIS SUMMER...FEEL CONFIDENT IN A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/03






000
FXUS64 KHGX 010349
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1049 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
BEEN A BUSY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF RAIN AND ONE DAMAGE REPORT. RADAR
ESTIMATES IN THE POLK/SAN JACINTO/LIBERTY SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6.5 INCHES.

COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND A HEARNE TO TYLER LINE WITH THE
STORMS HAVING MOVED OFF THE BOUNDARY REINFORCING THE COLD POOL
WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STORMS COLLIDING WITH
THE SEABREEZE AND FOCUS THE RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE STORMS
HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AND 2 INCH PW AT GLS
STREAMING INTO THE CLUSTER IN EAST HARRIS-LIBERTY COUNTY. HAVE
CONCERNS THAT REDEVELOPMENT IS GOING TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT GETS A NUDGE LATER TONIGHT AND PUSHED THE FRONT
DOWN TOWARD THE COAST BY 15-18Z FRIDAY.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED THE HRRR/RUC OF LATE WHICH HAVE DONE A
GOOD JOB AND SHOW THIS REDEVELOPMENT SCENARIO...GENERALLY RAISED
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND CONTINUED THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

45/23



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INTO COLLEGE STATION AND
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED INITIALIZING AS ALL BUT THE RAP MISSED
THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIP NEAR KSGR/ KLBX. BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS RAP WITH EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST LIKELY THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO KIAH AND KHOU IN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. LOOKS LIKE MOST TAF SITES WILL
SEE THUNDER WITH KLBX AND KGLS STILL IN QUESTION ON WHETHER
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT OR NOT. GLOBAL MODELS THEN BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON HOW THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TOMORROW MORNING. THE GFS
PLUNGES THE DRIER AIR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE
DRIER AIR UP JUST AROUND KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT RAIN
COULD LINGER AROUND NEAR AND SOUTH OF KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE GFS
IS RIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED MORE NEAR THE COAST. FUTURE
TAF PACKAGES WILL WORK TO NARROW DOWN WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. EITHER WAY BEHIND THE FONT PRECIP LOOKS TO COME TO AN
END. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION
TO MADISONVILLE HAVE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OFF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY MOVING AT 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SE.
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE METRO MARCHING
INLAND AND THE COLLISION AREA LOOKS TO FAVOR SOMETHING 20 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO CUT AND SHOOT TO
LIVINGSTON. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS CORRIDOR. PW 2+ INCHES POOLED IN THERE
AND A BOUNDARY COLLISION LOOK TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW AND SOME BACKBUILDING MAY
OCCUR...LATEST SPENES HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS WELL.
45/23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  89  71  90  71 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  90  73  90  73 /  60  40  30  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  89  79 /  40  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010349
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1049 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
BEEN A BUSY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF RAIN AND ONE DAMAGE REPORT. RADAR
ESTIMATES IN THE POLK/SAN JACINTO/LIBERTY SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6.5 INCHES.

COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND A HEARNE TO TYLER LINE WITH THE
STORMS HAVING MOVED OFF THE BOUNDARY REINFORCING THE COLD POOL
WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STORMS COLLIDING WITH
THE SEABREEZE AND FOCUS THE RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE STORMS
HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AND 2 INCH PW AT GLS
STREAMING INTO THE CLUSTER IN EAST HARRIS-LIBERTY COUNTY. HAVE
CONCERNS THAT REDEVELOPMENT IS GOING TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT GETS A NUDGE LATER TONIGHT AND PUSHED THE FRONT
DOWN TOWARD THE COAST BY 15-18Z FRIDAY.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED THE HRRR/RUC OF LATE WHICH HAVE DONE A
GOOD JOB AND SHOW THIS REDEVELOPMENT SCENARIO...GENERALLY RAISED
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND CONTINUED THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

45/23



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INTO COLLEGE STATION AND
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED INITIALIZING AS ALL BUT THE RAP MISSED
THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIP NEAR KSGR/ KLBX. BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS RAP WITH EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST LIKELY THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO KIAH AND KHOU IN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. LOOKS LIKE MOST TAF SITES WILL
SEE THUNDER WITH KLBX AND KGLS STILL IN QUESTION ON WHETHER
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT OR NOT. GLOBAL MODELS THEN BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON HOW THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TOMORROW MORNING. THE GFS
PLUNGES THE DRIER AIR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE
DRIER AIR UP JUST AROUND KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT RAIN
COULD LINGER AROUND NEAR AND SOUTH OF KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE GFS
IS RIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED MORE NEAR THE COAST. FUTURE
TAF PACKAGES WILL WORK TO NARROW DOWN WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. EITHER WAY BEHIND THE FONT PRECIP LOOKS TO COME TO AN
END. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION
TO MADISONVILLE HAVE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OFF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY MOVING AT 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SE.
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE METRO MARCHING
INLAND AND THE COLLISION AREA LOOKS TO FAVOR SOMETHING 20 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO CUT AND SHOOT TO
LIVINGSTON. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS CORRIDOR. PW 2+ INCHES POOLED IN THERE
AND A BOUNDARY COLLISION LOOK TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW AND SOME BACKBUILDING MAY
OCCUR...LATEST SPENES HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS WELL.
45/23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  89  71  90  71 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  90  73  90  73 /  60  40  30  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  89  79 /  40  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010349
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1049 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
BEEN A BUSY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF RAIN AND ONE DAMAGE REPORT. RADAR
ESTIMATES IN THE POLK/SAN JACINTO/LIBERTY SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6.5 INCHES.

COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND A HEARNE TO TYLER LINE WITH THE
STORMS HAVING MOVED OFF THE BOUNDARY REINFORCING THE COLD POOL
WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STORMS COLLIDING WITH
THE SEABREEZE AND FOCUS THE RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE STORMS
HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AND 2 INCH PW AT GLS
STREAMING INTO THE CLUSTER IN EAST HARRIS-LIBERTY COUNTY. HAVE
CONCERNS THAT REDEVELOPMENT IS GOING TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT GETS A NUDGE LATER TONIGHT AND PUSHED THE FRONT
DOWN TOWARD THE COAST BY 15-18Z FRIDAY.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED THE HRRR/RUC OF LATE WHICH HAVE DONE A
GOOD JOB AND SHOW THIS REDEVELOPMENT SCENARIO...GENERALLY RAISED
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND CONTINUED THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

45/23



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INTO COLLEGE STATION AND
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED INITIALIZING AS ALL BUT THE RAP MISSED
THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIP NEAR KSGR/ KLBX. BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS RAP WITH EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST LIKELY THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO KIAH AND KHOU IN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. LOOKS LIKE MOST TAF SITES WILL
SEE THUNDER WITH KLBX AND KGLS STILL IN QUESTION ON WHETHER
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT OR NOT. GLOBAL MODELS THEN BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON HOW THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TOMORROW MORNING. THE GFS
PLUNGES THE DRIER AIR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE
DRIER AIR UP JUST AROUND KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT RAIN
COULD LINGER AROUND NEAR AND SOUTH OF KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE GFS
IS RIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED MORE NEAR THE COAST. FUTURE
TAF PACKAGES WILL WORK TO NARROW DOWN WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. EITHER WAY BEHIND THE FONT PRECIP LOOKS TO COME TO AN
END. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION
TO MADISONVILLE HAVE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OFF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY MOVING AT 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SE.
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE METRO MARCHING
INLAND AND THE COLLISION AREA LOOKS TO FAVOR SOMETHING 20 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO CUT AND SHOOT TO
LIVINGSTON. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS CORRIDOR. PW 2+ INCHES POOLED IN THERE
AND A BOUNDARY COLLISION LOOK TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW AND SOME BACKBUILDING MAY
OCCUR...LATEST SPENES HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS WELL.
45/23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  89  71  90  71 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  90  73  90  73 /  60  40  30  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  89  79 /  40  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010349
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1049 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
BEEN A BUSY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF RAIN AND ONE DAMAGE REPORT. RADAR
ESTIMATES IN THE POLK/SAN JACINTO/LIBERTY SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6.5 INCHES.

COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND A HEARNE TO TYLER LINE WITH THE
STORMS HAVING MOVED OFF THE BOUNDARY REINFORCING THE COLD POOL
WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STORMS COLLIDING WITH
THE SEABREEZE AND FOCUS THE RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE STORMS
HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AND 2 INCH PW AT GLS
STREAMING INTO THE CLUSTER IN EAST HARRIS-LIBERTY COUNTY. HAVE
CONCERNS THAT REDEVELOPMENT IS GOING TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT GETS A NUDGE LATER TONIGHT AND PUSHED THE FRONT
DOWN TOWARD THE COAST BY 15-18Z FRIDAY.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED THE HRRR/RUC OF LATE WHICH HAVE DONE A
GOOD JOB AND SHOW THIS REDEVELOPMENT SCENARIO...GENERALLY RAISED
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND CONTINUED THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

45/23



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INTO COLLEGE STATION AND
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED INITIALIZING AS ALL BUT THE RAP MISSED
THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIP NEAR KSGR/ KLBX. BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS RAP WITH EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST LIKELY THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO KIAH AND KHOU IN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. LOOKS LIKE MOST TAF SITES WILL
SEE THUNDER WITH KLBX AND KGLS STILL IN QUESTION ON WHETHER
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT OR NOT. GLOBAL MODELS THEN BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON HOW THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TOMORROW MORNING. THE GFS
PLUNGES THE DRIER AIR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE
DRIER AIR UP JUST AROUND KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT RAIN
COULD LINGER AROUND NEAR AND SOUTH OF KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE GFS
IS RIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED MORE NEAR THE COAST. FUTURE
TAF PACKAGES WILL WORK TO NARROW DOWN WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. EITHER WAY BEHIND THE FONT PRECIP LOOKS TO COME TO AN
END. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION
TO MADISONVILLE HAVE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OFF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY MOVING AT 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SE.
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE METRO MARCHING
INLAND AND THE COLLISION AREA LOOKS TO FAVOR SOMETHING 20 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO CUT AND SHOOT TO
LIVINGSTON. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS CORRIDOR. PW 2+ INCHES POOLED IN THERE
AND A BOUNDARY COLLISION LOOK TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW AND SOME BACKBUILDING MAY
OCCUR...LATEST SPENES HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS WELL.
45/23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  89  71  90  71 /  30  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  90  73  90  73 /  60  40  30  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  89  79 /  40  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KCRP 010302 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1002 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH 40 POPS ACROSS THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGION. OTHERWISE...MAIN REASON FOR THE UPDATE WAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80. UPDATED
PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...WEAK COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING VCT TAF SITE AND POSSIBLY ALI.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TOMORROW WITH THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE
AREA. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...THINK ALL SITES BUT VCT COULD STAY VFR. HAVE MVFR FOR VCT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER PATTERN WHICH DEPICT
A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE SWRN/WRN CONUS AND AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING ACRS THE
PLAINS/ERN TX. THIS PATTERN WL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (CURRENTLY
OVER CNTRL TX PER MSAS MSLP/THETA-E PATTERN) TO ENTER THE CWA BY
EARLY FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY STALL/MEANDER OVR THE CWA DRG THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GOES SOUNDER DATA REVEAL COPIOUS
MSTR/HIGH PWAT VALUES ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS-BASED SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWAT VALUES GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF
1.75-2 INCHES OVER THE NRN CWA. EXPECT THE FOREGOING UPPER
SHORTWAVES TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. HWR...THE
COMBINATION OF COPIOUS MSTR/SFC FRONTAL FORCING AND ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION. ANTICIPATE ISOLD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN CWA THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT.
ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE COPIOUS MSTR/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY/SLOW EXPECTED
STORM MOTIONS...THE NAM SOUNDINGS DONT QUITE DEPICT A SATURATED
VERTICAL COLUMN IN THE 0-4KM WARM LAYER (SUFFICIENT FOR COLLISION
COALESCENCE) AND CAPE VALUE COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG (SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF PCPN POTENTIALLY IN SOLID FORM) AND THUS WL NOT CERTAIN
REGARDING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED FRIDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR/PCPN.

MARINE...THERMALLY-GENERATED SCEC WIND ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
EVENING OVER THE SRN BAYS/SRN NEARSHORE WATERS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK
FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX ON SAT. MODEL SOLNS VARY ON
PLACEMENT OF THE BDRY BUT ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH IT NEAR OR
ACROSS S TX. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE ALSO PROGD TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SAT. MODELS ALSO SHOW MOD INSTABILITY. THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION IS THAT THE MODELS PROG THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY E PLACING IT MORE DIRECTLY OVER S
TX. THINK THAT DESPITE THE HIGH ALOFT...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SCT CONVECTION
ON SAT AND COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED HVY RAIN ALONG THE BDRY WITH ANY
TRAINING/SLOW MOVG STORMS. BY SUN THE FCST BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUNS SHOW THAT AN INVERTED SFC TROF IS DRAPED
ACROSS S TX WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BDRY JUST N OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS IF IT IS THE FRONT OR AN INVERTED TROF...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOL/SCT CONVECTION ON SUN. AN ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED MON-WED WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS S TX FOR ISOL SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. COOLER TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCREASED
MOISTURE/PRECIP THEN A WARMING TREND RESUMES NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER
AIRMASS DVLPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  93  76  93  74  /  10  20  30  30  20
VICTORIA          76  92  74  91  71  /  40  30  30  30  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  99  78  /  10  40  30  30  20
ALICE             76  96  75  94  73  /  10  30  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  86  78  89  78  /  20  30  30  30  20
COTULLA           77  96  77  95  73  /  20  30  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        76  96  76  94  74  /  10  20  30  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  87  79  88  78  /  10  20  30  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 010302 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1002 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH 40 POPS ACROSS THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGION. OTHERWISE...MAIN REASON FOR THE UPDATE WAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80. UPDATED
PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...WEAK COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING VCT TAF SITE AND POSSIBLY ALI.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TOMORROW WITH THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE
AREA. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...THINK ALL SITES BUT VCT COULD STAY VFR. HAVE MVFR FOR VCT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER PATTERN WHICH DEPICT
A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE SWRN/WRN CONUS AND AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING ACRS THE
PLAINS/ERN TX. THIS PATTERN WL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (CURRENTLY
OVER CNTRL TX PER MSAS MSLP/THETA-E PATTERN) TO ENTER THE CWA BY
EARLY FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY STALL/MEANDER OVR THE CWA DRG THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GOES SOUNDER DATA REVEAL COPIOUS
MSTR/HIGH PWAT VALUES ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS-BASED SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWAT VALUES GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF
1.75-2 INCHES OVER THE NRN CWA. EXPECT THE FOREGOING UPPER
SHORTWAVES TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. HWR...THE
COMBINATION OF COPIOUS MSTR/SFC FRONTAL FORCING AND ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION. ANTICIPATE ISOLD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN CWA THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT.
ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE COPIOUS MSTR/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY/SLOW EXPECTED
STORM MOTIONS...THE NAM SOUNDINGS DONT QUITE DEPICT A SATURATED
VERTICAL COLUMN IN THE 0-4KM WARM LAYER (SUFFICIENT FOR COLLISION
COALESCENCE) AND CAPE VALUE COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG (SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF PCPN POTENTIALLY IN SOLID FORM) AND THUS WL NOT CERTAIN
REGARDING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED FRIDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR/PCPN.

MARINE...THERMALLY-GENERATED SCEC WIND ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
EVENING OVER THE SRN BAYS/SRN NEARSHORE WATERS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK
FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX ON SAT. MODEL SOLNS VARY ON
PLACEMENT OF THE BDRY BUT ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH IT NEAR OR
ACROSS S TX. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE ALSO PROGD TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SAT. MODELS ALSO SHOW MOD INSTABILITY. THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION IS THAT THE MODELS PROG THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY E PLACING IT MORE DIRECTLY OVER S
TX. THINK THAT DESPITE THE HIGH ALOFT...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SCT CONVECTION
ON SAT AND COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED HVY RAIN ALONG THE BDRY WITH ANY
TRAINING/SLOW MOVG STORMS. BY SUN THE FCST BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUNS SHOW THAT AN INVERTED SFC TROF IS DRAPED
ACROSS S TX WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BDRY JUST N OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS IF IT IS THE FRONT OR AN INVERTED TROF...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOL/SCT CONVECTION ON SUN. AN ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED MON-WED WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS S TX FOR ISOL SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. COOLER TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCREASED
MOISTURE/PRECIP THEN A WARMING TREND RESUMES NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER
AIRMASS DVLPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  93  76  93  74  /  10  20  30  30  20
VICTORIA          76  92  74  91  71  /  40  30  30  30  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  99  78  /  10  40  30  30  20
ALICE             76  96  75  94  73  /  10  30  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  86  78  89  78  /  20  30  30  30  20
COTULLA           77  96  77  95  73  /  20  30  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        76  96  76  94  74  /  10  20  30  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  87  79  88  78  /  10  20  30  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 010302 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1002 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH 40 POPS ACROSS THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGION. OTHERWISE...MAIN REASON FOR THE UPDATE WAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80. UPDATED
PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...WEAK COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING VCT TAF SITE AND POSSIBLY ALI.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TOMORROW WITH THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE
AREA. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...THINK ALL SITES BUT VCT COULD STAY VFR. HAVE MVFR FOR VCT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER PATTERN WHICH DEPICT
A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE SWRN/WRN CONUS AND AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING ACRS THE
PLAINS/ERN TX. THIS PATTERN WL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (CURRENTLY
OVER CNTRL TX PER MSAS MSLP/THETA-E PATTERN) TO ENTER THE CWA BY
EARLY FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY STALL/MEANDER OVR THE CWA DRG THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GOES SOUNDER DATA REVEAL COPIOUS
MSTR/HIGH PWAT VALUES ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS-BASED SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWAT VALUES GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF
1.75-2 INCHES OVER THE NRN CWA. EXPECT THE FOREGOING UPPER
SHORTWAVES TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. HWR...THE
COMBINATION OF COPIOUS MSTR/SFC FRONTAL FORCING AND ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION. ANTICIPATE ISOLD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN CWA THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT.
ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE COPIOUS MSTR/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY/SLOW EXPECTED
STORM MOTIONS...THE NAM SOUNDINGS DONT QUITE DEPICT A SATURATED
VERTICAL COLUMN IN THE 0-4KM WARM LAYER (SUFFICIENT FOR COLLISION
COALESCENCE) AND CAPE VALUE COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG (SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF PCPN POTENTIALLY IN SOLID FORM) AND THUS WL NOT CERTAIN
REGARDING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED FRIDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR/PCPN.

MARINE...THERMALLY-GENERATED SCEC WIND ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
EVENING OVER THE SRN BAYS/SRN NEARSHORE WATERS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK
FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX ON SAT. MODEL SOLNS VARY ON
PLACEMENT OF THE BDRY BUT ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH IT NEAR OR
ACROSS S TX. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE ALSO PROGD TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SAT. MODELS ALSO SHOW MOD INSTABILITY. THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION IS THAT THE MODELS PROG THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY E PLACING IT MORE DIRECTLY OVER S
TX. THINK THAT DESPITE THE HIGH ALOFT...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SCT CONVECTION
ON SAT AND COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED HVY RAIN ALONG THE BDRY WITH ANY
TRAINING/SLOW MOVG STORMS. BY SUN THE FCST BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUNS SHOW THAT AN INVERTED SFC TROF IS DRAPED
ACROSS S TX WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BDRY JUST N OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS IF IT IS THE FRONT OR AN INVERTED TROF...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOL/SCT CONVECTION ON SUN. AN ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED MON-WED WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS S TX FOR ISOL SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. COOLER TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCREASED
MOISTURE/PRECIP THEN A WARMING TREND RESUMES NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER
AIRMASS DVLPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  93  76  93  74  /  10  20  30  30  20
VICTORIA          76  92  74  91  71  /  40  30  30  30  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  99  78  /  10  40  30  30  20
ALICE             76  96  75  94  73  /  10  30  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  86  78  89  78  /  20  30  30  30  20
COTULLA           77  96  77  95  73  /  20  30  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        76  96  76  94  74  /  10  20  30  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  87  79  88  78  /  10  20  30  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 010302 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1002 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH 40 POPS ACROSS THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS REGION. OTHERWISE...MAIN REASON FOR THE UPDATE WAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80. UPDATED
PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...WEAK COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING VCT TAF SITE AND POSSIBLY ALI.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TOMORROW WITH THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE
AREA. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...THINK ALL SITES BUT VCT COULD STAY VFR. HAVE MVFR FOR VCT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER PATTERN WHICH DEPICT
A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE SWRN/WRN CONUS AND AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING ACRS THE
PLAINS/ERN TX. THIS PATTERN WL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (CURRENTLY
OVER CNTRL TX PER MSAS MSLP/THETA-E PATTERN) TO ENTER THE CWA BY
EARLY FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY STALL/MEANDER OVR THE CWA DRG THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GOES SOUNDER DATA REVEAL COPIOUS
MSTR/HIGH PWAT VALUES ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS-BASED SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWAT VALUES GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF
1.75-2 INCHES OVER THE NRN CWA. EXPECT THE FOREGOING UPPER
SHORTWAVES TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. HWR...THE
COMBINATION OF COPIOUS MSTR/SFC FRONTAL FORCING AND ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION. ANTICIPATE ISOLD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN CWA THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT.
ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE COPIOUS MSTR/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY/SLOW EXPECTED
STORM MOTIONS...THE NAM SOUNDINGS DONT QUITE DEPICT A SATURATED
VERTICAL COLUMN IN THE 0-4KM WARM LAYER (SUFFICIENT FOR COLLISION
COALESCENCE) AND CAPE VALUE COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG (SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF PCPN POTENTIALLY IN SOLID FORM) AND THUS WL NOT CERTAIN
REGARDING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED FRIDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR/PCPN.

MARINE...THERMALLY-GENERATED SCEC WIND ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
EVENING OVER THE SRN BAYS/SRN NEARSHORE WATERS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK
FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX ON SAT. MODEL SOLNS VARY ON
PLACEMENT OF THE BDRY BUT ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH IT NEAR OR
ACROSS S TX. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE ALSO PROGD TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SAT. MODELS ALSO SHOW MOD INSTABILITY. THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION IS THAT THE MODELS PROG THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY E PLACING IT MORE DIRECTLY OVER S
TX. THINK THAT DESPITE THE HIGH ALOFT...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SCT CONVECTION
ON SAT AND COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED HVY RAIN ALONG THE BDRY WITH ANY
TRAINING/SLOW MOVG STORMS. BY SUN THE FCST BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUNS SHOW THAT AN INVERTED SFC TROF IS DRAPED
ACROSS S TX WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BDRY JUST N OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS IF IT IS THE FRONT OR AN INVERTED TROF...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOL/SCT CONVECTION ON SUN. AN ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED MON-WED WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS S TX FOR ISOL SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. COOLER TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCREASED
MOISTURE/PRECIP THEN A WARMING TREND RESUMES NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER
AIRMASS DVLPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  93  76  93  74  /  10  20  30  30  20
VICTORIA          76  92  74  91  71  /  40  30  30  30  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  99  78  /  10  40  30  30  20
ALICE             76  96  75  94  73  /  10  30  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  86  78  89  78  /  20  30  30  30  20
COTULLA           77  96  77  95  73  /  20  30  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        76  96  76  94  74  /  10  20  30  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  87  79  88  78  /  10  20  30  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KEWX 010237
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
937 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...
EXCEPT FOR ALSO ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 90. HIGHER POPS ARE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING.
OTHERWISE...WE RE-TRENDED THE FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR DRT...AND ADDITIONAL CELLS COULD
REFORM IN THE VCNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER EAST...SAT
ALSO HAS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 25 MILES...BUT SHORT STORM LIFE
AND SOME BACKWARD PROPAGATION CHARACTERISTICS MAKE THE IMPACTS
LESS CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THERE WILL BE AN
ISOLATED CHANCE AT AUS/SAT/SSF OVER A WIDE TIME RANGE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. LOW CLOUDS ARE SUGGESTED BY RAW DATA
AND GUIDANCES TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF
LOW CLOUDS COULD BE DISRUPTED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AT SSF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT STILL
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AND MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR A
TEMPLE TO FREDERICKSBURG TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
MEAGER ALONG THE FRONT THUS FAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
HOWEVER...HI RESOLUTION MODELS INSIST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM AS THE FRONT REACHES
A MORE UNSTABLE REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS TO A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST POSITION.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED AND SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CALDWELL TO SOUTH AUSTIN TO MEDINA LINE.
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE CURRENTLY ANALYZED...2-2.2
INCHES OF PWAT...PRECIP LOADING.

FRONT SLOWS AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEAR THE I-10/U.S. 90 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND RIO GRANDE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND UP THE RIO GRANDE...CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. DRIER LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS BEING CONFINED ON
SATURDAY TO THE RIO GRANDE AND ON SUNDAY TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW POP WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AND LOCATIONS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS "COOL" FOR AUGUST...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
DEEP SOUTH. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  90  73 /  10  10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  92  71  90  72 /  10  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  70  88  70 /  10  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  93  76  90  75 /  20  30  30  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  89  70  89  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  93  73  92  71 /  20  20  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  71  90  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  71  89  72 /  60  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  92  74  91  74 /  20  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  92  74  92  73 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32





000
FXUS64 KEWX 010237
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
937 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW SOME CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...
EXCEPT FOR ALSO ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 90. HIGHER POPS ARE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING.
OTHERWISE...WE RE-TRENDED THE FORECAST VARIABLES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR DRT...AND ADDITIONAL CELLS COULD
REFORM IN THE VCNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER EAST...SAT
ALSO HAS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 25 MILES...BUT SHORT STORM LIFE
AND SOME BACKWARD PROPAGATION CHARACTERISTICS MAKE THE IMPACTS
LESS CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THERE WILL BE AN
ISOLATED CHANCE AT AUS/SAT/SSF OVER A WIDE TIME RANGE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. LOW CLOUDS ARE SUGGESTED BY RAW DATA
AND GUIDANCES TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF
LOW CLOUDS COULD BE DISRUPTED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AT SSF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT STILL
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AND MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR A
TEMPLE TO FREDERICKSBURG TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
MEAGER ALONG THE FRONT THUS FAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
HOWEVER...HI RESOLUTION MODELS INSIST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM AS THE FRONT REACHES
A MORE UNSTABLE REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS TO A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST POSITION.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED AND SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CALDWELL TO SOUTH AUSTIN TO MEDINA LINE.
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE CURRENTLY ANALYZED...2-2.2
INCHES OF PWAT...PRECIP LOADING.

FRONT SLOWS AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEAR THE I-10/U.S. 90 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND RIO GRANDE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND UP THE RIO GRANDE...CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. DRIER LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS BEING CONFINED ON
SATURDAY TO THE RIO GRANDE AND ON SUNDAY TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW POP WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AND LOCATIONS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS "COOL" FOR AUGUST...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
DEEP SOUTH. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  90  73 /  10  10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  92  71  90  72 /  10  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  70  88  70 /  10  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  93  76  90  75 /  20  30  30  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  89  70  89  70 /  10  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  93  73  92  71 /  20  20  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  71  90  71 /  10  10  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  71  89  72 /  60  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  92  74  91  74 /  20  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  92  74  92  73 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KSJT 010235
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
930 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Removed chance of precipitation from southern counties through the
remainder of the night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The cold front has moved well south of the I10 corridor into south
Texas. Shower activity associated with the front is now well south
of the CWA, have removed chance of precipitation through the
remainder of the night. Have updated temperatures, dew points, winds
and associated parameters for the rest of the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The low ceilings from earlier today have improved to 3500 ft or
greater. This cloud deck will continue to thin and shift east
overnight, with VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period.
Convection along the cold front should remain south of I-10, posing
minimal threat to the KSOA and KJCT terminals. Winds will be from a
general north to northeast direction at 10 kts or less once the sun
sets, remaining light through Friday afternoon.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

The surface front will remain well south of the forecast area
tonight, however the 850mb front will be situated along our
southern border. Models showing precip over our southern
counties tonight and this seems reasonable given the position of
the front and overrunning just north of it. Maintained a slight
chance of precipitation across the Interstate 10 corridor and
south tonight and Friday.

Light northerly winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies will
prevail tonight. Overnight lows tonight will be slightly below
normal with temperatures mainly in the 60s. On Friday, below
normal temperatures will continue. Expect partly cloudy skies to
persist with upper 80s to near 90.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

A slow warm up will ensue this weekend into early next week. Below
normal temperatures are forecast to continue this weekend, with
highs on Saturday in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and in lower 90s
for most locations on Sunday. Overnight lows will be slightly
below seasonal normals, in the mid to upper 60s. The remnant cold
front will be located from south Texas, into the mountains of West
Texas late Friday into Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop along and behind this boundary, mainly to our
south and west. I went ahead and continued the slight chance PoPs
for mainly the northern Edwards Plateau, Friday night and
Saturday.

A steady warm up is forecast next week, although temperatures will
remain near seasonal normals. High temperatures by mid week will
be in the mid 90s across much of the area, with lows generally in
the lower 70s. High pressure will dominate, with rain chances
remaining minimal through at least the middle of next week. Models
continue to indicate an upper level trough moving from the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region late next week. This
results in a cold front moving south through the Plains Thursday
into Friday. The ECMWF continues to be most aggressive, bringing
the front into West Central Texas on Friday. This would result in
slightly cooler temperatures and the possibility of precipitation.
For now, I have added in slight chance PoPs across the northern
Big Country on day 7, and these may need to be expanded if models
come into better agreement on a wetter solution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  87  66  89  67 /  10   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  66  90  67  91  68 /  10  10  10  10   5
Junction  70  91  68  91  67 /  20  10  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25










000
FXUS64 KFWD 010018
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
718 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT CONTINUED MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE CWA AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVED INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED OUT OF THE
CWA ALONG WITH THE BETTER FORCING. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WAS
FILTERING SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE NOW
TAKING HOLD ACROSS MUCH THE OF AREA. ISENTROPIC FORECASTS INDICATE
VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
THOSE AREAS.

THE CURRENT STRATUS SHOULD MAINTAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE OR DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD WITH COOLING BEING
VERY GRADUAL UNDER THE PERSISTENT STRATUS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR AND IFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

MVFR CIGS WITH BASES BETWEEN 1-2 KFT ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED
AT KDFW AND KDAL...AND POINTS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THERE. ACROSS
THE WESTERN METROPLEX TAF SITES...VFR CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 3500
FEET ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER BETWEEN
1-2 KFT THIS EVENING. THE CEILINGS AT WACO ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
IN MVFR CATEGORY BY 05-06Z. CIGS WILL FURTHER LOWER INTO IFR
CATEGORY AROUND 08Z AND FINALLY BEGIN A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL MENTION A BKN040 CIG FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT CEILINGS COULD REMAIN
AROUND 3500 FEET INSTEAD. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY EVENING.

82/JLD


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY COOL AND CLOUDY DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED VERY NEAR ATHENS AND COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TX/LA
BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHERLY FLOW.
EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN IS
RATHER INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NEVER
REALLY GETS OUT OF CONTROL...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES KEEPING IT
IN CHECK. MEANWHILE...A PRONOUNCED TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUD COVER AND BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM INTO THE MID
90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER HEIGHTS DEVELOPING AND LINGERING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING WESTERN U.S. RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES
SOMETHING THAT WE USUALLY SEE TOWARD THE END OF SUMMER WHEN A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT THROUGH MIDDLE AUGUST BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK WITH MORE RAIN
CHANCES ON THE HORIZON.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              68  88  70  92  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             65  81  65  88  67 /  10  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            65  86  67  90  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          64  85  66  90  68 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  85  68  89  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  85  69  89  69 /  10  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  90  69  93  71 /  10  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  89  66  92  68 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 010018
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
718 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT CONTINUED MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE CWA AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVED INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED OUT OF THE
CWA ALONG WITH THE BETTER FORCING. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WAS
FILTERING SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE NOW
TAKING HOLD ACROSS MUCH THE OF AREA. ISENTROPIC FORECASTS INDICATE
VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
THOSE AREAS.

THE CURRENT STRATUS SHOULD MAINTAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE OR DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD WITH COOLING BEING
VERY GRADUAL UNDER THE PERSISTENT STRATUS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR AND IFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

MVFR CIGS WITH BASES BETWEEN 1-2 KFT ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED
AT KDFW AND KDAL...AND POINTS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THERE. ACROSS
THE WESTERN METROPLEX TAF SITES...VFR CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 3500
FEET ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER BETWEEN
1-2 KFT THIS EVENING. THE CEILINGS AT WACO ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
IN MVFR CATEGORY BY 05-06Z. CIGS WILL FURTHER LOWER INTO IFR
CATEGORY AROUND 08Z AND FINALLY BEGIN A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL MENTION A BKN040 CIG FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT CEILINGS COULD REMAIN
AROUND 3500 FEET INSTEAD. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY EVENING.

82/JLD


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY COOL AND CLOUDY DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED VERY NEAR ATHENS AND COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TX/LA
BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHERLY FLOW.
EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN IS
RATHER INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NEVER
REALLY GETS OUT OF CONTROL...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES KEEPING IT
IN CHECK. MEANWHILE...A PRONOUNCED TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUD COVER AND BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM INTO THE MID
90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER HEIGHTS DEVELOPING AND LINGERING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING WESTERN U.S. RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES
SOMETHING THAT WE USUALLY SEE TOWARD THE END OF SUMMER WHEN A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT THROUGH MIDDLE AUGUST BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK WITH MORE RAIN
CHANCES ON THE HORIZON.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              68  88  70  92  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             65  81  65  88  67 /  10  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            65  86  67  90  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          64  85  66  90  68 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  85  68  89  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  85  69  89  69 /  10  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  90  69  93  71 /  10  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  89  66  92  68 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/05






000
FXUS64 KBRO 010010 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
710 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FAIRLY SIMPLE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD THEN
SOME POSSIBLE BUMPS IN THE ROAD AS WE MOVE LATER INTO FRIDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE USUAL EVENING SOUTHEAST GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
BETWEEN 02 AND 04Z AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PERHAPS A FEW
CUMULUS FORMING NEAR KBRO. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BOTH NAM/GFS
AND CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE AND FORECAST/OBSERVED SOUNDING
SUGGEST A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS WITHIN 2 HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND 12Z. CONFIDENCE NOT A
LOCK SO FOR NOW HAVE ROLLED A TEMPO GROUP WITH SCATTERED AS
PREVAILING.

AFTER SUNRISE...CLOUD LEVELS WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH LOWEST VALUES
TOWARD THE COAST UNTIL 16/17Z OR SO. STILL FORECASTING
SCATTERED...THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF BROKEN PERIODS
THROUGH NOON.

FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS OF THE FORECAST...18Z TO 00Z/AUG
2...THINGS COULD GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS WHEN THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WIND SURGE
ALONG HIGHWAY 77 REACHES KMFE AND SURROUNDING AREAS BY 21Z OR
SO...THE APPROACH OF THE SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH KEEPS
WINDS IN CHECK AND EXPECT VALUES TO HANG AT BARELY MODERATE
LEVELS...10 KNOTS OR SO. AT THE SAME TIME...LAYERED MOISTURE
ARRIVES/DEVELOPS FROM THE RANCHLANDS EAST TOWARD THE MID VALLEY
WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO `SEED` THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE
AND BRING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED STORMS. BOTH NAM AND GFS
CROSS-SECTIONS AND POINT SOUNDINGS BEAR THIS OUT...BUT COUNTERING
ARE PRIOR MODELS THAT HELD BACK ON THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

SO...DON`T BE SURPRISED IF A VICINTY THUNDERSTORM OR EVEN A PROB
GROUP (OR MORE) IS NEEDED FOR KMFE AND PERHAPS KHRL ON
FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A
BETTER READ WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE WHICH IS GENERALLY MORE
STABLE AS THE LATEST ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS
PROVIDE A BETTER BASELINE.
52/BSG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE UNUSUALLY EARLY COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY DROOPING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND WILL BE
STALLING TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SOUTHERLY BREEZES
ARE TURNING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE
TRIES TO IMPEDE WESTWARD...BUT DRY AIR IN THE REGION KEEPING IT
FROM SPARKING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS ATTM. FRONT STAYS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING...HELD IN CHECK BY THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
THE CONTINUED PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTH. MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT IS THE RAIN CHANCES. LIGHTER
WINDS TOMORROW WILL HELP THE SEABREEZE BECOME MORE FOCUSED AS IT
MOVES INLAND EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE VARIED IN THE AMOUNT OF
SEABREEZE PRECIPITATION BEING PRODUCED...GENERALLY DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.
HAVE FOCUSED PRECIPITATION ON THOSE AREAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH THE SLIGHTLY ACTIVE SEABREEZE AND ANY SHOWERS
THAT DRIFT SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT ITSELF INTO NORTHERN JIM HOGG
AND BROOKS COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASED AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...BUT LITTLE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES
WANE AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW WITH THE SEABREEZE DISSIPATING DUE TO
LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AFTER SUNSET...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SHOWS SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY FILLS. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES LOOSENS ITS CONTROL OVER THE REGION
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH THE RIDGE
WEST. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES AS MOISTURE POOLS AND PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND
2 INCHES. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. BELIEVE THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAINS NORTH OF THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY WITH MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND LIGHTER EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...A DECENT SEABEEZE
SHOULD DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE HOT THIS WEEKEND...THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THEY WILL BE MODERATED BY THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INLAND AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
NOT QUITE TOUCHING THE CENTURY MARK. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF
AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
RELAX FOR THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE WILL EXPIRE AT 6PM AND LIKELY
WILL NOT NEED ANY EXTENDING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND 10
KNOTS AREAWIDE. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 3 FEET WILL SLOWLY RELAX TO 1
TO 2 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TOMORROW WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES LATER TOMORROW...BRINGING SOME HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST
UPDATES CONCERNING ANY GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SEAS REMANING LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FEET. THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE MARINE
AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BE HIGHER IN
AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV







000
FXUS64 KBRO 010010 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
710 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FAIRLY SIMPLE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD THEN
SOME POSSIBLE BUMPS IN THE ROAD AS WE MOVE LATER INTO FRIDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE USUAL EVENING SOUTHEAST GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
BETWEEN 02 AND 04Z AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PERHAPS A FEW
CUMULUS FORMING NEAR KBRO. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BOTH NAM/GFS
AND CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE AND FORECAST/OBSERVED SOUNDING
SUGGEST A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS WITHIN 2 HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND 12Z. CONFIDENCE NOT A
LOCK SO FOR NOW HAVE ROLLED A TEMPO GROUP WITH SCATTERED AS
PREVAILING.

AFTER SUNRISE...CLOUD LEVELS WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH LOWEST VALUES
TOWARD THE COAST UNTIL 16/17Z OR SO. STILL FORECASTING
SCATTERED...THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF BROKEN PERIODS
THROUGH NOON.

FOR THE FINAL SIX HOURS OF THE FORECAST...18Z TO 00Z/AUG
2...THINGS COULD GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS WHEN THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WIND SURGE
ALONG HIGHWAY 77 REACHES KMFE AND SURROUNDING AREAS BY 21Z OR
SO...THE APPROACH OF THE SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN SURFACE TROUGH KEEPS
WINDS IN CHECK AND EXPECT VALUES TO HANG AT BARELY MODERATE
LEVELS...10 KNOTS OR SO. AT THE SAME TIME...LAYERED MOISTURE
ARRIVES/DEVELOPS FROM THE RANCHLANDS EAST TOWARD THE MID VALLEY
WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO `SEED` THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE
AND BRING ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED STORMS. BOTH NAM AND GFS
CROSS-SECTIONS AND POINT SOUNDINGS BEAR THIS OUT...BUT COUNTERING
ARE PRIOR MODELS THAT HELD BACK ON THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

SO...DON`T BE SURPRISED IF A VICINTY THUNDERSTORM OR EVEN A PROB
GROUP (OR MORE) IS NEEDED FOR KMFE AND PERHAPS KHRL ON
FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS GET A
BETTER READ WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE WHICH IS GENERALLY MORE
STABLE AS THE LATEST ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDING AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS
PROVIDE A BETTER BASELINE.
52/BSG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE UNUSUALLY EARLY COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY DROOPING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND WILL BE
STALLING TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SOUTHERLY BREEZES
ARE TURNING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE
TRIES TO IMPEDE WESTWARD...BUT DRY AIR IN THE REGION KEEPING IT
FROM SPARKING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS ATTM. FRONT STAYS NORTH OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING...HELD IN CHECK BY THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
THE CONTINUED PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTH. MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT IS THE RAIN CHANCES. LIGHTER
WINDS TOMORROW WILL HELP THE SEABREEZE BECOME MORE FOCUSED AS IT
MOVES INLAND EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE VARIED IN THE AMOUNT OF
SEABREEZE PRECIPITATION BEING PRODUCED...GENERALLY DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.
HAVE FOCUSED PRECIPITATION ON THOSE AREAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH THE SLIGHTLY ACTIVE SEABREEZE AND ANY SHOWERS
THAT DRIFT SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT ITSELF INTO NORTHERN JIM HOGG
AND BROOKS COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER
TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASED AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...BUT LITTLE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES
WANE AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW WITH THE SEABREEZE DISSIPATING DUE TO
LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AFTER SUNSET...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SHOWS SOME SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US BECOMES ELONGATED AND SLOWLY FILLS. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES LOOSENS ITS CONTROL OVER THE REGION
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH THE RIDGE
WEST. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES AS MOISTURE POOLS AND PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND
2 INCHES. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. BELIEVE THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAINS NORTH OF THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY WITH MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND LIGHTER EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...A DECENT SEABEEZE
SHOULD DEVELOP AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE HOT THIS WEEKEND...THEY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THEY WILL BE MODERATED BY THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INLAND AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
NOT QUITE TOUCHING THE CENTURY MARK. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF
AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
RELAX FOR THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE WILL EXPIRE AT 6PM AND LIKELY
WILL NOT NEED ANY EXTENDING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND 10
KNOTS AREAWIDE. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 3 FEET WILL SLOWLY RELAX TO 1
TO 2 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TOMORROW WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES LATER TOMORROW...BRINGING SOME HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP TRACK OF THE LATEST
UPDATES CONCERNING ANY GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
SEAS REMANING LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 FEET. THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE MARINE
AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BE HIGHER IN
AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV






000
FXUS64 KHGX 312352
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
652 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INTO COLLEGE STATION AND
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED INITIALIZING AS ALL BUT THE RAP MISSED
THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIP NEAR KSGR/ KLBX. BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS RAP WITH EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST LIKELY THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO KIAH AND KHOU IN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. LOOKS LIKE MOST TAF SITES WILL
SEE THUNDER WITH KLBX AND KGLS STILL IN QUESTION ON WHETHER
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT OR NOT. GLOBAL MODELS THEN BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON HOW THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TOMORROW MORNING. THE GFS
PLUNGES THE DRIER AIR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE
DRIER AIR UP JUST AROUND KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT RAIN
COULD LINGER AROUND NEAR AND SOUTH OF KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE GFS
IS RIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED MORE NEAR THE COAST. FUTURE
TAF PACKAGES WILL WORK TO NARROW DOWN WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. EITHER WAY BEHIND THE FONT PRECIP LOOKS TO COME TO AN
END. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION
TO MADISONVILLE HAVE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OFF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY MOVING AT 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SE.
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE METRO MARCHING
INLAND AND THE COLLISION AREA LOOKS TO FAVOR SOMETHING 20 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO CUT AND SHOOT TO
LIVINGSTON. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS CORRIDOR. PW 2+ INCHES POOLED IN THERE
AND A BOUNDARY COLLISION LOOK TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW AND SOME BACKBUILDING MAY
OCCUR...LATEST SPENES HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS WELL.
45/23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  89  71  90  71 /  40  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  90  73  90  73 /  50  40  30  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 312352
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
652 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INTO COLLEGE STATION AND
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED INITIALIZING AS ALL BUT THE RAP MISSED
THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIP NEAR KSGR/ KLBX. BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS RAP WITH EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST LIKELY THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO KIAH AND KHOU IN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. LOOKS LIKE MOST TAF SITES WILL
SEE THUNDER WITH KLBX AND KGLS STILL IN QUESTION ON WHETHER
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT OR NOT. GLOBAL MODELS THEN BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON HOW THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TOMORROW MORNING. THE GFS
PLUNGES THE DRIER AIR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE
DRIER AIR UP JUST AROUND KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT RAIN
COULD LINGER AROUND NEAR AND SOUTH OF KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE GFS
IS RIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED MORE NEAR THE COAST. FUTURE
TAF PACKAGES WILL WORK TO NARROW DOWN WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. EITHER WAY BEHIND THE FONT PRECIP LOOKS TO COME TO AN
END. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION
TO MADISONVILLE HAVE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OFF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY MOVING AT 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SE.
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE METRO MARCHING
INLAND AND THE COLLISION AREA LOOKS TO FAVOR SOMETHING 20 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO CUT AND SHOOT TO
LIVINGSTON. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS CORRIDOR. PW 2+ INCHES POOLED IN THERE
AND A BOUNDARY COLLISION LOOK TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW AND SOME BACKBUILDING MAY
OCCUR...LATEST SPENES HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS WELL.
45/23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  89  71  90  71 /  40  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  90  73  90  73 /  50  40  30  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 312352
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
652 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INTO COLLEGE STATION AND
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED INITIALIZING AS ALL BUT THE RAP MISSED
THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIP NEAR KSGR/ KLBX. BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS RAP WITH EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST LIKELY THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO KIAH AND KHOU IN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. LOOKS LIKE MOST TAF SITES WILL
SEE THUNDER WITH KLBX AND KGLS STILL IN QUESTION ON WHETHER
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT OR NOT. GLOBAL MODELS THEN BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON HOW THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TOMORROW MORNING. THE GFS
PLUNGES THE DRIER AIR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE
DRIER AIR UP JUST AROUND KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT RAIN
COULD LINGER AROUND NEAR AND SOUTH OF KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE GFS
IS RIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED MORE NEAR THE COAST. FUTURE
TAF PACKAGES WILL WORK TO NARROW DOWN WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. EITHER WAY BEHIND THE FONT PRECIP LOOKS TO COME TO AN
END. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION
TO MADISONVILLE HAVE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OFF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY MOVING AT 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SE.
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE METRO MARCHING
INLAND AND THE COLLISION AREA LOOKS TO FAVOR SOMETHING 20 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO CUT AND SHOOT TO
LIVINGSTON. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS CORRIDOR. PW 2+ INCHES POOLED IN THERE
AND A BOUNDARY COLLISION LOOK TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW AND SOME BACKBUILDING MAY
OCCUR...LATEST SPENES HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS WELL.
45/23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  89  71  90  71 /  40  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  90  73  90  73 /  50  40  30  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 312352
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
652 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW INTO COLLEGE STATION AND
FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED INITIALIZING AS ALL BUT THE RAP MISSED
THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIP NEAR KSGR/ KLBX. BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS RAP WITH EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST LIKELY THIS LINE WILL MOVE INTO KIAH AND KHOU IN THE NEXT TWO
HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN. LOOKS LIKE MOST TAF SITES WILL
SEE THUNDER WITH KLBX AND KGLS STILL IN QUESTION ON WHETHER
CURRENT CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT OR NOT. GLOBAL MODELS THEN BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON HOW THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS TOMORROW MORNING. THE GFS
PLUNGES THE DRIER AIR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE NAM HOLDS THE
DRIER AIR UP JUST AROUND KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT RAIN
COULD LINGER AROUND NEAR AND SOUTH OF KIAH TOMORROW. IF THE GFS
IS RIGHT THE PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED MORE NEAR THE COAST. FUTURE
TAF PACKAGES WILL WORK TO NARROW DOWN WHEN AND WHERE THE FRONT
WILL STALL. EITHER WAY BEHIND THE FONT PRECIP LOOKS TO COME TO AN
END. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION
TO MADISONVILLE HAVE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OFF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY MOVING AT 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SE.
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE METRO MARCHING
INLAND AND THE COLLISION AREA LOOKS TO FAVOR SOMETHING 20 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO CUT AND SHOOT TO
LIVINGSTON. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS CORRIDOR. PW 2+ INCHES POOLED IN THERE
AND A BOUNDARY COLLISION LOOK TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW AND SOME BACKBUILDING MAY
OCCUR...LATEST SPENES HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS WELL.
45/23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  89  71  90  71 /  40  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  90  73  90  73 /  50  40  30  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KEWX 312348
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR DRT...AND ADDITIONAL CELLS COULD
REFORM IN THE VCNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER EAST...SAT
ALSO HAS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 25 MILES...BUT SHORT STORM LIFE
AND SOME BACKWARD PROPAGATION CHARACTERISTICS MAKE THE IMPACTS
LESS CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THERE WILL BE AN
ISOLATED CHANCE AT AUS/SAT/SSF OVER A WIDE TIME RANGE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. LOW CLOUDS ARE SUGGESTED BY RAW DATA
AND GUIDANCES TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF
LOW CLOUDS COULD BE DISRUPTED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AT SSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT STILL
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AND MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR A
TEMPLE TO FREDERICKSBURG TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
MEAGER ALONG THE FRONT THUS FAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
HOWEVER...HI RESOLUTION MODELS INSIST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM AS THE FRONT REACHES
A MORE UNSTABLE REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS TO A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST POSITION.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED AND SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CALDWELL TO SOUTH AUSTIN TO MEDINA LINE.
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE CURRENTLY ANALYZED...2-2.2
INCHES OF PWAT...PRECIP LOADING.

FRONT SLOWS AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEAR THE I-10/U.S. 90 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND RIO GRANDE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND UP THE RIO GRANDE...CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. DRIER LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS BEING CONFINED ON
SATURDAY TO THE RIO GRANDE AND ON SUNDAY TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW POP WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AND LOCATIONS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS "COOL" FOR AUGUST...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
DEEP SOUTH. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  90  73 /  20  10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  70  90  70 /  20  10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  92  71  90  72 /  40  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  70  88  70 /  20  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  93  76  90  75 /  30  30  30  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  89  70  89  70 /  20  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  93  73  92  71 /  40  20  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  71  90  71 /  30  10  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  71  89  72 /  50  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  92  74  91  74 /  40  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  92  74  92  73 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 312348
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR DRT...AND ADDITIONAL CELLS COULD
REFORM IN THE VCNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER EAST...SAT
ALSO HAS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 25 MILES...BUT SHORT STORM LIFE
AND SOME BACKWARD PROPAGATION CHARACTERISTICS MAKE THE IMPACTS
LESS CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THERE WILL BE AN
ISOLATED CHANCE AT AUS/SAT/SSF OVER A WIDE TIME RANGE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. LOW CLOUDS ARE SUGGESTED BY RAW DATA
AND GUIDANCES TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF
LOW CLOUDS COULD BE DISRUPTED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AT SSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT STILL
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AND MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR A
TEMPLE TO FREDERICKSBURG TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
MEAGER ALONG THE FRONT THUS FAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
HOWEVER...HI RESOLUTION MODELS INSIST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM AS THE FRONT REACHES
A MORE UNSTABLE REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS TO A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST POSITION.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED AND SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CALDWELL TO SOUTH AUSTIN TO MEDINA LINE.
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE CURRENTLY ANALYZED...2-2.2
INCHES OF PWAT...PRECIP LOADING.

FRONT SLOWS AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEAR THE I-10/U.S. 90 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND RIO GRANDE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND UP THE RIO GRANDE...CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. DRIER LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS BEING CONFINED ON
SATURDAY TO THE RIO GRANDE AND ON SUNDAY TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW POP WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AND LOCATIONS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS "COOL" FOR AUGUST...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
DEEP SOUTH. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  90  73 /  20  10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  70  90  70 /  20  10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  92  71  90  72 /  40  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  70  88  70 /  20  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  93  76  90  75 /  30  30  30  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  89  70  89  70 /  20  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  93  73  92  71 /  40  20  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  71  90  71 /  30  10  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  71  89  72 /  50  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  92  74  91  74 /  40  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  92  74  92  73 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 312348
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR DRT...AND ADDITIONAL CELLS COULD
REFORM IN THE VCNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER EAST...SAT
ALSO HAS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 25 MILES...BUT SHORT STORM LIFE
AND SOME BACKWARD PROPAGATION CHARACTERISTICS MAKE THE IMPACTS
LESS CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THERE WILL BE AN
ISOLATED CHANCE AT AUS/SAT/SSF OVER A WIDE TIME RANGE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. LOW CLOUDS ARE SUGGESTED BY RAW DATA
AND GUIDANCES TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF
LOW CLOUDS COULD BE DISRUPTED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AT SSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT STILL
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AND MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR A
TEMPLE TO FREDERICKSBURG TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
MEAGER ALONG THE FRONT THUS FAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
HOWEVER...HI RESOLUTION MODELS INSIST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM AS THE FRONT REACHES
A MORE UNSTABLE REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS TO A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST POSITION.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED AND SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CALDWELL TO SOUTH AUSTIN TO MEDINA LINE.
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE CURRENTLY ANALYZED...2-2.2
INCHES OF PWAT...PRECIP LOADING.

FRONT SLOWS AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEAR THE I-10/U.S. 90 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND RIO GRANDE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND UP THE RIO GRANDE...CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. DRIER LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS BEING CONFINED ON
SATURDAY TO THE RIO GRANDE AND ON SUNDAY TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW POP WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AND LOCATIONS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS "COOL" FOR AUGUST...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
DEEP SOUTH. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  90  73 /  20  10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  70  90  70 /  20  10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  92  71  90  72 /  40  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  70  88  70 /  20  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  93  76  90  75 /  30  30  30  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  89  70  89  70 /  20  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  93  73  92  71 /  40  20  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  71  90  71 /  30  10  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  71  89  72 /  50  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  92  74  91  74 /  40  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  92  74  92  73 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KEWX 312348
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR DRT...AND ADDITIONAL CELLS COULD
REFORM IN THE VCNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER EAST...SAT
ALSO HAS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 25 MILES...BUT SHORT STORM LIFE
AND SOME BACKWARD PROPAGATION CHARACTERISTICS MAKE THE IMPACTS
LESS CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THERE WILL BE AN
ISOLATED CHANCE AT AUS/SAT/SSF OVER A WIDE TIME RANGE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. LOW CLOUDS ARE SUGGESTED BY RAW DATA
AND GUIDANCES TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. COVERAGE OF
LOW CLOUDS COULD BE DISRUPTED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
AT SSF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT STILL
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AND MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR A
TEMPLE TO FREDERICKSBURG TO ROCKSPRINGS LINE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
MEAGER ALONG THE FRONT THUS FAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
HOWEVER...HI RESOLUTION MODELS INSIST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM AS THE FRONT REACHES
A MORE UNSTABLE REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS TO A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST POSITION.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED AND SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CALDWELL TO SOUTH AUSTIN TO MEDINA LINE.
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE CURRENTLY ANALYZED...2-2.2
INCHES OF PWAT...PRECIP LOADING.

FRONT SLOWS AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEAR THE I-10/U.S. 90 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND RIO GRANDE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND UP THE RIO GRANDE...CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. DRIER LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS BEING CONFINED ON
SATURDAY TO THE RIO GRANDE AND ON SUNDAY TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW POP WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AND LOCATIONS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS "COOL" FOR AUGUST...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
DEEP SOUTH. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  90  73 /  20  10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  70  90  70 /  20  10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  92  71  90  72 /  40  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  89  70  88  70 /  20  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  93  76  90  75 /  30  30  30  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  89  70  89  70 /  20  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  93  73  92  71 /  40  20  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  92  71  90  71 /  30  10  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  71  89  72 /  50  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  92  74  91  74 /  40  10  20  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  92  74  92  73 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KMAF 312345
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
645 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...As of 6:45 PM CDT Thursday...have updated the
grids/forecast to lower PoPs across the CWA. KMAF radar is indc a
lone...weakening cell over Presidio County. Other than this
cell...the radar is clear across the CWA.

It just didn`t get warm enough to increase instability across the
area...and the upslope flow wasn`t enough to overcome the lack of
instability. Have kept the highest PoPs along the New Mexico
Mountains and adjoining Plains as well as the Mountains along the
Rio Grande where the cold front has basically stalled...and could
serve as a focus for any convective initiation.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions through the forecast with a light wind. Could
be a few storms overnight... mainly south near remains of frontal
boundary... but should not affect any TAF site.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently draped across the Rio Grander River. Much
cooler has filtered into southeast New Mexico and most of west
Texas behind this front with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler
at this time than yesterday afternoon. This front is forecast to
become nearly stationary through the weekend with temperatures
expected to be well below normal across the forecast area.

The bigger news this weekend is the potential for thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and
areas near the Rio Grande River near this stalled front. The
dirty upper level ridge centered across New Mexico and extreme
southwest Texas has slow moving upper level disturbances trapped
within it and this will continue to be the case through the weekend.
The combination of these slow moving disturbances coupled with the
stalled boundary and the higher topography could result in locally
heavy rainfall and or flash flooding in the aforementioned areas.
Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential for a flash
flood watch Friday and or Saturday. Unfortunately further east
away from the front and disturbances, the central and eastern
Permian Basin will probably receive little meaningful precipitation
amounts through the weekend.

A drying and warming trend is expected next Monday and Tuesday
due to the expected strengthening and drying of the upper ridge.
Temperatures are expected to climb back to near normal values by
Tuesday. By next Wednesday and Thursday more weakness is forecast
to develop within the ridge. The ECMWF is more pronounced with
this weakness. For now will go with a slight chance of thunderstorms
across the mountains and the immediate adjacent plains where
topography will be an advantage. Temperatures look to be at
least near normal, possibly a little above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  87  66  86  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              66  89  68  87  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                65  85  66  86  /  20  30  40  40
DRYDEN TX                  76  93  71  93  /  10  40  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  89  68  87  /  10  30  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  75  59  79  /  30  60  60  60
HOBBS NM                   62  82  64  82  /   0  10  30  30
MARFA TX                   64  78  62  79  /  20  70  60  60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  88  67  89  /   0  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  66  88  68  88  /   0  10  20  20
WINK TX                    69  91  70  91  /   0  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/33





000
FXUS64 KMAF 312345
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
645 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...As of 6:45 PM CDT Thursday...have updated the
grids/forecast to lower PoPs across the CWA. KMAF radar is indc a
lone...weakening cell over Presidio County. Other than this
cell...the radar is clear across the CWA.

It just didn`t get warm enough to increase instability across the
area...and the upslope flow wasn`t enough to overcome the lack of
instability. Have kept the highest PoPs along the New Mexico
Mountains and adjoining Plains as well as the Mountains along the
Rio Grande where the cold front has basically stalled...and could
serve as a focus for any convective initiation.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions through the forecast with a light wind. Could
be a few storms overnight... mainly south near remains of frontal
boundary... but should not affect any TAF site.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently draped across the Rio Grander River. Much
cooler has filtered into southeast New Mexico and most of west
Texas behind this front with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler
at this time than yesterday afternoon. This front is forecast to
become nearly stationary through the weekend with temperatures
expected to be well below normal across the forecast area.

The bigger news this weekend is the potential for thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and
areas near the Rio Grande River near this stalled front. The
dirty upper level ridge centered across New Mexico and extreme
southwest Texas has slow moving upper level disturbances trapped
within it and this will continue to be the case through the weekend.
The combination of these slow moving disturbances coupled with the
stalled boundary and the higher topography could result in locally
heavy rainfall and or flash flooding in the aforementioned areas.
Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential for a flash
flood watch Friday and or Saturday. Unfortunately further east
away from the front and disturbances, the central and eastern
Permian Basin will probably receive little meaningful precipitation
amounts through the weekend.

A drying and warming trend is expected next Monday and Tuesday
due to the expected strengthening and drying of the upper ridge.
Temperatures are expected to climb back to near normal values by
Tuesday. By next Wednesday and Thursday more weakness is forecast
to develop within the ridge. The ECMWF is more pronounced with
this weakness. For now will go with a slight chance of thunderstorms
across the mountains and the immediate adjacent plains where
topography will be an advantage. Temperatures look to be at
least near normal, possibly a little above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  87  66  86  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              66  89  68  87  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                65  85  66  86  /  20  30  40  40
DRYDEN TX                  76  93  71  93  /  10  40  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  89  68  87  /  10  30  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  75  59  79  /  30  60  60  60
HOBBS NM                   62  82  64  82  /   0  10  30  30
MARFA TX                   64  78  62  79  /  20  70  60  60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  88  67  89  /   0  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  66  88  68  88  /   0  10  20  20
WINK TX                    69  91  70  91  /   0  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/33






000
FXUS64 KCRP 312339
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING VCT TAF SITE AND POSSIBLY ALI.
OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TOMORROW WITH THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE
AREA. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES DURING THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...THINK ALL SITES BUT VCT COULD STAY VFR. HAVE MVFR FOR VCT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER PATTERN WHICH DEPICT
A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE SWRN/WRN CONUS AND AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING ACRS THE
PLAINS/ERN TX. THIS PATTERN WL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (CURRENTLY
OVER CNTRL TX PER MSAS MSLP/THETA-E PATTERN) TO ENTER THE CWA BY
EARLY FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY STALL/MEANDER OVR THE CWA DRG THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GOES SOUNDER DATA REVEAL COPIOUS
MSTR/HIGH PWAT VALUES ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS-BASED SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWAT VALUES GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF
1.75-2 INCHES OVER THE NRN CWA. EXPECT THE FOREGOING UPPER
SHORTWAVES TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. HWR...THE
COMBINATION OF COPIOUS MSTR/SFC FRONTAL FORCING AND ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION. ANTICIPATE ISOLD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN CWA THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT.
ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE COPIOUS MSTR/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY/SLOW EXPECTED
STORM MOTIONS...THE NAM SOUNDINGS DONT QUITE DEPICT A SATURATED
VERTICAL COLUMN IN THE 0-4KM WARM LAYER (SUFFICIENT FOR COLLISION
COALESCENCE) AND CAPE VALUE COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG (SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF PCPN POTENTIALLY IN SOLID FORM) AND THUS WL NOT CERTAIN
REGARDING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED FRIDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR/PCPN.

MARINE...THERMALLY-GENERATED SCEC WIND ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
EVENING OVER THE SRN BAYS/SRN NEARSHORE WATERS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK
FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX ON SAT. MODEL SOLNS VARY ON
PLACEMENT OF THE BDRY BUT ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH IT NEAR OR
ACROSS S TX. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE ALSO PROGD TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SAT. MODELS ALSO SHOW MOD INSTABILITY. THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION IS THAT THE MODELS PROG THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY E PLACING IT MORE DIRECTLY OVER S
TX. THINK THAT DESPITE THE HIGH ALOFT...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SCT CONVECTION
ON SAT AND COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED HVY RAIN ALONG THE BDRY WITH ANY
TRAINING/SLOW MOVG STORMS. BY SUN THE FCST BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUNS SHOW THAT AN INVERTED SFC TROF IS DRAPED
ACROSS S TX WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BDRY JUST N OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS IF IT IS THE FRONT OR AN INVERTED TROF...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOL/SCT CONVECTION ON SUN. AN ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED MON-WED WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS S TX FOR ISOL SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. COOLER TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCREASED
MOISTURE/PRECIP THEN A WARMING TREND RESUMES NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER
AIRMASS DVLPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  93  76  93  74  /  10  20  30  30  20
VICTORIA          76  92  74  91  71  /  40  30  30  30  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  99  78  /  10  40  30  30  20
ALICE             76  96  75  94  73  /  10  30  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  86  78  89  78  /  20  30  30  30  20
COTULLA           77  96  77  95  73  /  20  30  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        76  96  76  94  74  /  10  20  30  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  87  79  88  78  /  10  20  30  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KLUB 312329
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24HRS WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KT AND
GENERALLY ERLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET AND COOL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY AS COOL AND
DRY AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH NOON FRIDAY WHEN RIDGE WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD. FOR TONIGHT...A LOOK WEST SHOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS FORMING ON THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN NM AS WELL AS THE
SACRAMENTOS OF SRN NM. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY STABLE AIR THERE MAKING
FOR A SLOW START RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS. FLOW ALOFT ABOUT 20 KTS
FROM THE NW...BUT CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO EVEN MORE STABLE
AIR WITH LOW LEVEL DEW POINT MINIMA AND VERY WEAK SFC WINDS ACROSS
FAR ERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE. WOULD EXPECT LITTLE ORGANIZATION AS
THESE STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAMPER THEIR LONGEVITY
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT THEY ARE MOVING INTO. SO...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOMETHING MAKING IT INTO THE WRN ZONES TONIGHT...CHANCES
LOOK VERY SLIM AND WILL PULL MENTION FROM THE FCST.

BY FRIDAY AFTN...WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SE BUT
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. THICKNESS VALUES CHANGE LITTLE WITH NO LOW
LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION INDICATED...SO TEMPS NEAR TO JUST A TOUCH
ABOVE TODAY. WRFNAM-BASED OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CERTAINLY LOOKS FAR TOO
WARM WITH THE GFS-BASED AVNMOS LOOKING BETTER...BUT EVEN THEN A
TOUCH TOO WARM. LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CONVECTIVE INITIATION
CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA INTO ERN NM...BUT APPEARS THAT INITIATION
ZONE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE LINE. SO ANOTHER COOL AND FAIR
DAY EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK.

LONG TERM...
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH WEST TEXAS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENINGS. ANY CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NEW MEXICO WILL BE PROGRESSING INTO A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SUSTAINING CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE A NOTABLE MINIMUM IN LOW
LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WITH WEST TEXAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER
SURFACE RIDGING. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON FRIDAY THAN
COMPARED TO SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL BE LOW NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE.

CONDITIONS WILL THEN TURN DRIER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REPOSITIONING ITSELF OVERHEAD. AS THIS RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE THAT TERRIBLY STRONG. TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND BY EARLY AUGUST STANDARDS.

AROUND MIDWEEK...MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE GFS MODEL IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN US AND IS THUS LESS BULLISH WITH
THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND IS SLOWER WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN INDICATING HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT MUCH HELP HERE AS
THE SPREAD INDICATES EITHER A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OR SLOWER
PATTERN AS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS. A FEW
SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MAY ALSO SPUR SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  80  59  79  61 /  10  10  20  10  10
TULIA         57  81  60  81  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     58  81  62  81  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     61  83  63  82  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       61  83  63  83  64 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   61  86  61  83  63 /  10  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    62  86  63  84  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     63  84  65  86  65 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          63  84  64  85  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     66  86  66  90  67 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KMAF 312328
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions through the forecast with a light wind. Could
be a few storms overnight... mainly south near remains of frontal
boundary... but should not affect any TAF site.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently draped across the Rio Grander River. Much
cooler has filtered into southeast New Mexico and most of west
Texas behind this front with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler
at this time than yesterday afternoon. This front is forecast to
become nearly stationary through the weekend with temperatures
expected to be well below normal across the forecast area.

The bigger news this weekend is the potential for thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and
areas near the Rio Grande River near this stalled front. The
dirty upper level ridge centered across New Mexico and extreme
southwest Texas has slow moving upper level disturbances trapped
within it and this will continue to be the case through the weekend.
The combination of these slow moving disturbances coupled with the
stalled boundary and the higher topography could result in locally
heavy rainfall and or flash flooding in the aforementioned areas.
Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential for a flash
flood watch Friday and or Saturday. Unfortunately further east
away from the front and disturbances, the central and eastern
Permian Basin will probably receive little meaningful precipitation
amounts through the weekend.

A drying and warming trend is expected next Monday and Tuesday
due to the expected strengthening and drying of the upper ridge.
Temperatures are expected to climb back to near normal values by
Tuesday. By next Wednesday and Thursday more weakness is forecast
to develop within the ridge. The ECMWF is more pronounced with
this weakness. For now will go with a slight chance of thunderstorms
across the mountains and the immediate adjacent plains where
topography will be an advantage. Temperatures look to be at
least near normal, possibly a little above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMAF 312328
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect VFR conditions through the forecast with a light wind. Could
be a few storms overnight... mainly south near remains of frontal
boundary... but should not affect any TAF site.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently draped across the Rio Grander River. Much
cooler has filtered into southeast New Mexico and most of west
Texas behind this front with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler
at this time than yesterday afternoon. This front is forecast to
become nearly stationary through the weekend with temperatures
expected to be well below normal across the forecast area.

The bigger news this weekend is the potential for thunderstorms
with heavy rainfall in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and
areas near the Rio Grande River near this stalled front. The
dirty upper level ridge centered across New Mexico and extreme
southwest Texas has slow moving upper level disturbances trapped
within it and this will continue to be the case through the weekend.
The combination of these slow moving disturbances coupled with the
stalled boundary and the higher topography could result in locally
heavy rainfall and or flash flooding in the aforementioned areas.
Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential for a flash
flood watch Friday and or Saturday. Unfortunately further east
away from the front and disturbances, the central and eastern
Permian Basin will probably receive little meaningful precipitation
amounts through the weekend.

A drying and warming trend is expected next Monday and Tuesday
due to the expected strengthening and drying of the upper ridge.
Temperatures are expected to climb back to near normal values by
Tuesday. By next Wednesday and Thursday more weakness is forecast
to develop within the ridge. The ECMWF is more pronounced with
this weakness. For now will go with a slight chance of thunderstorms
across the mountains and the immediate adjacent plains where
topography will be an advantage. Temperatures look to be at
least near normal, possibly a little above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHGX 312327
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
627 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION
TO MADISONVILLE HAVE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OFF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY MOVING AT 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SE.
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE METRO MARCHING
INLAND AND THE COLLISION AREA LOOKS TO FAVOR SOMETHING 20 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO CUT AND SHOOT TO
LIVINGSTON. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS CORRIDOR. PW 2+ INCHES POOLED IN THERE
AND A BOUNDARY COLLISION LOOK TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW AND SOME BACKBUILDING MAY
OCCUR...LATEST SPENES HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS WELL.
45/23


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  89  71  90  71 /  40  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  90  73  90  73 /  50  40  30  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 312327
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
627 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION
TO MADISONVILLE HAVE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OFF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY MOVING AT 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SE.
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE METRO MARCHING
INLAND AND THE COLLISION AREA LOOKS TO FAVOR SOMETHING 20 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO CUT AND SHOOT TO
LIVINGSTON. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS CORRIDOR. PW 2+ INCHES POOLED IN THERE
AND A BOUNDARY COLLISION LOOK TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW AND SOME BACKBUILDING MAY
OCCUR...LATEST SPENES HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS WELL.
45/23


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  89  71  90  71 /  40  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  90  73  90  73 /  50  40  30  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 312327
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
627 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION
TO MADISONVILLE HAVE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OFF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY MOVING AT 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SE.
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE METRO MARCHING
INLAND AND THE COLLISION AREA LOOKS TO FAVOR SOMETHING 20 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO CUT AND SHOOT TO
LIVINGSTON. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS CORRIDOR. PW 2+ INCHES POOLED IN THERE
AND A BOUNDARY COLLISION LOOK TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW AND SOME BACKBUILDING MAY
OCCUR...LATEST SPENES HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS WELL.
45/23


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  89  71  90  71 /  40  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  90  73  90  73 /  50  40  30  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 312327
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
627 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS FROM CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION
TO MADISONVILLE HAVE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED OFF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY MOVING AT 15-20 KNOTS TO THE SE.
SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS IN THE METRO MARCHING
INLAND AND THE COLLISION AREA LOOKS TO FAVOR SOMETHING 20 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO NAVASOTA TO CUT AND SHOOT TO
LIVINGSTON. HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND RAISED POPS FOR THIS CORRIDOR. PW 2+ INCHES POOLED IN THERE
AND A BOUNDARY COLLISION LOOK TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW AND SOME BACKBUILDING MAY
OCCUR...LATEST SPENES HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT AS WELL.
45/23


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

40

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  89  71  90  71 /  40  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  90  73  90  73 /  50  40  30  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KSJT 312327
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The low ceilings from earlier today have improved to 3500 ft or
greater. This cloud deck will continue to thin and shift east
overnight, with VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period.
Convection along the cold front should remain south of I-10,
posing minimal threat to the KSOA and KJCT terminals. Winds will
be from a general north to northeast direction at 10 kts or less
once the sun sets, remaining light through Friday afternoon.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

The surface front will remain well south of the forecast area
tonight, however the 850mb front will be situated along our
southern border. Models showing precip over our southern
counties tonight and this seems reasonable given the position of
the front and overrunning just north of it. Maintained a slight
chance of precipitation across the Interstate 10 corridor and
south tonight and Friday.

Light northerly winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies will
prevail tonight. Overnight lows tonight will be slightly below
normal with temperatures mainly in the 60s. On Friday, below
normal temperatures will continue. Expect partly cloudy skies to
persist with upper 80s to near 90.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

A slow warm up will ensue this weekend into early next week. Below
normal temperatures are forecast to continue this weekend, with
highs on Saturday in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and in lower 90s
for most locations on Sunday. Overnight lows will be slightly
below seasonal normals, in the mid to upper 60s. The remnant cold
front will be located from south Texas, into the mountains of West
Texas late Friday into Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop along and behind this boundary, mainly to our
south and west. I went ahead and continued the slight chance PoPs
for mainly the northern Edwards Plateau, Friday night and
Saturday.

A steady warm up is forecast next week, although temperatures will
remain near seasonal normals. High temperatures by mid week will
be in the mid 90s across much of the area, with lows generally in
the lower 70s. High pressure will dominate, with rain chances
remaining minimal through at least the middle of next week. Models
continue to indicate an upper level trough moving from the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region late next week. This
results in a cold front moving south through the Plains Thursday
into Friday. The ECMWF continues to be most aggressive, bringing
the front into West Central Texas on Friday. This would result in
slightly cooler temperatures and the possibility of precipitation.
For now, I have added in slight chance PoPs across the northern
Big Country on day 7, and these may need to be expanded if models
come into better agreement on a wetter solution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  87  66  89  67 /  10   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  66  90  67  91  68 /  10  10  10  10   5
Junction  70  91  68  91  67 /  20  10  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25







000
FXUS64 KSJT 312327
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The low ceilings from earlier today have improved to 3500 ft or
greater. This cloud deck will continue to thin and shift east
overnight, with VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period.
Convection along the cold front should remain south of I-10,
posing minimal threat to the KSOA and KJCT terminals. Winds will
be from a general north to northeast direction at 10 kts or less
once the sun sets, remaining light through Friday afternoon.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

The surface front will remain well south of the forecast area
tonight, however the 850mb front will be situated along our
southern border. Models showing precip over our southern
counties tonight and this seems reasonable given the position of
the front and overrunning just north of it. Maintained a slight
chance of precipitation across the Interstate 10 corridor and
south tonight and Friday.

Light northerly winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies will
prevail tonight. Overnight lows tonight will be slightly below
normal with temperatures mainly in the 60s. On Friday, below
normal temperatures will continue. Expect partly cloudy skies to
persist with upper 80s to near 90.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

A slow warm up will ensue this weekend into early next week. Below
normal temperatures are forecast to continue this weekend, with
highs on Saturday in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and in lower 90s
for most locations on Sunday. Overnight lows will be slightly
below seasonal normals, in the mid to upper 60s. The remnant cold
front will be located from south Texas, into the mountains of West
Texas late Friday into Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop along and behind this boundary, mainly to our
south and west. I went ahead and continued the slight chance PoPs
for mainly the northern Edwards Plateau, Friday night and
Saturday.

A steady warm up is forecast next week, although temperatures will
remain near seasonal normals. High temperatures by mid week will
be in the mid 90s across much of the area, with lows generally in
the lower 70s. High pressure will dominate, with rain chances
remaining minimal through at least the middle of next week. Models
continue to indicate an upper level trough moving from the
Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region late next week. This
results in a cold front moving south through the Plains Thursday
into Friday. The ECMWF continues to be most aggressive, bringing
the front into West Central Texas on Friday. This would result in
slightly cooler temperatures and the possibility of precipitation.
For now, I have added in slight chance PoPs across the northern
Big Country on day 7, and these may need to be expanded if models
come into better agreement on a wetter solution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  87  66  89  67 /  10   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  66  90  67  91  68 /  10  10  10  10   5
Junction  70  91  68  91  67 /  20  10  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25








000
FXUS64 KFWD 312325 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR AND IFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

MVFR CIGS WITH BASES BETWEEN 1-2 KFT ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED
AT KDFW AND KDAL...AND POINTS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THERE. ACROSS
THE WESTERN METROPLEX TAF SITES...VFR CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 3500
FEET ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER BETWEEN
1-2 KFT THIS EVENING. THE CEILINGS AT WACO ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
IN MVFR CATEGORY BY 05-06Z. CIGS WILL FURTHER LOWER INTO IFR
CATEGORY AROUND 08Z AND FINALLY BEGIN A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL MENTION A BKN040 CIG FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT CEILINGS COULD REMAIN
AROUND 3500 FEET INSTEAD. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY EVENING.

82/JLD

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY COOL AND CLOUDY DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED VERY NEAR ATHENS AND COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TX/LA
BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHERLY FLOW.
EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN IS
RATHER INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NEVER
REALLY GETS OUT OF CONTROL...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES KEEPING IT
IN CHECK. MEANWHILE...A PRONOUNCED TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUD COVER AND BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM INTO THE MID
90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER HEIGHTS DEVELOPING AND LINGERING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING WESTERN U.S. RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES
SOMETHING THAT WE USUALLY SEE TOWARD THE END OF SUMMER WHEN A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT THROUGH MIDDLE AUGUST BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK WITH MORE RAIN
CHANCES ON THE HORIZON.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              68  88  70  92  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             65  81  65  88  67 /  20  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            65  86  67  90  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          64  85  66  90  68 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  85  68  89  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  85  69  89  69 /  20  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  90  69  93  71 /  20  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  89  66  92  68 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 312325 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR AND IFR CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

MVFR CIGS WITH BASES BETWEEN 1-2 KFT ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED
AT KDFW AND KDAL...AND POINTS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THERE. ACROSS
THE WESTERN METROPLEX TAF SITES...VFR CIGS WITH BASES AROUND 3500
FEET ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE BUT EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER BETWEEN
1-2 KFT THIS EVENING. THE CEILINGS AT WACO ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
IN MVFR CATEGORY BY 05-06Z. CIGS WILL FURTHER LOWER INTO IFR
CATEGORY AROUND 08Z AND FINALLY BEGIN A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL MENTION A BKN040 CIG FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT CEILINGS COULD REMAIN
AROUND 3500 FEET INSTEAD. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY EVENING.

82/JLD

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY COOL AND CLOUDY DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED VERY NEAR ATHENS AND COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TX/LA
BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHERLY FLOW.
EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN IS
RATHER INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NEVER
REALLY GETS OUT OF CONTROL...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES KEEPING IT
IN CHECK. MEANWHILE...A PRONOUNCED TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUD COVER AND BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM INTO THE MID
90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER HEIGHTS DEVELOPING AND LINGERING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING WESTERN U.S. RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES
SOMETHING THAT WE USUALLY SEE TOWARD THE END OF SUMMER WHEN A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT THROUGH MIDDLE AUGUST BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK WITH MORE RAIN
CHANCES ON THE HORIZON.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              68  88  70  92  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             65  81  65  88  67 /  20  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            65  86  67  90  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          64  85  66  90  68 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  85  68  89  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  85  69  89  69 /  20  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  90  69  93  71 /  20  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  89  66  92  68 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 312308 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
608 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY...BUT
SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP TROUGH TO THE EAST. IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STEERED FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OUT OF ANY OF THESE STORMS...AND IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THEY
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FLATTENS OUT...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL BRING ANOTHER DECENT SUMMER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES...SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY DEPENDING ON
YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE AN
INITIAL PUSH WEDNESDAY AND THEN A FINAL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS
WITH THE OTHER COLD FRONTS THIS SUMMER...FEEL CONFIDENT IN A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/12





000
FXUS64 KAMA 312308 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
608 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY...BUT
SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP TROUGH TO THE EAST. IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STEERED FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OUT OF ANY OF THESE STORMS...AND IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THEY
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FLATTENS OUT...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL BRING ANOTHER DECENT SUMMER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES...SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY DEPENDING ON
YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE AN
INITIAL PUSH WEDNESDAY AND THEN A FINAL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS
WITH THE OTHER COLD FRONTS THIS SUMMER...FEEL CONFIDENT IN A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/12






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 312131
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
331 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING
A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE REGION...AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE PIECES ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A BIG TIME RAIN EVENT. AT
THE SURFACE WE HAVE A BOUNDARY (OLD COLD FRONT) THAT PUSHED IN
FROM THE EAST AND WILL HANG OUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARY WE HAVE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO HELP FUEL THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
FINAL INGREDIENT IS THAT THE WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME
TOGETHER TO GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT MAKING RAIN AND THESE STORMS WILL BE
VERY SLOW MOVING. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND PROBABLY INTO SUNDAY. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THAT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT HAD BEEN TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE
OVER AND RECENTER ITSELF TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL HELP BRIEFLY PUSH
THE MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA. BUT DESPITE THE LESS MOIST AIR WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HOPEFULLY THE THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS WILL
DIMINISH. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE BACK TO OUR
WEST...BUT FOR NOW I DON`T SEE ANOTHER BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE...BUT
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR MORE NORMAL DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND RAIN HANGING
AROUND AS YOU IMAGINE WE WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE). HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
RUNNING 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE
AS THE MOISTURE AND THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN MOVES OFF WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT BUT STILL RUN 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z - 02/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
NMRS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU PD. EXPECT P6SM
FEW-SCT050-070 SCT-BKN100-140 BKN200-250. HOWEVER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF 1-2 SM +TSRA WITH CIGS
BKN030-040. WIND G40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. EASTERN SLOPES
OF AREA MTS COULD SEE PERIODS OF SCT-BKN015-025 09Z-18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SLOW STORM MOTION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FOR THE LOWLANDS AND LIKELY ABOVE 50 PERCENT IN AREA MOUNTAINS. A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL START SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST AND DRAWS IN SOME DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR FROM
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  87  70  85  70 /  60  60  60  60  60
SIERRA BLANCA           71  83  71  78  71 /  50  50  60  40  50
LAS CRUCES              68  86  68  83  68 /  60  60  60  60  60
ALAMOGORDO              69  87  69  82  69 /  70  60  60  60  50
CLOUDCROFT              48  63  47  64  47 /  70  80  60  70  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  85  67  81  67 /  60  60  60  60  60
SILVER CITY             62  80  60  78  60 /  60  60  60  70  60
DEMING                  68  85  68  83  68 /  60  60  60  60  60
LORDSBURG               66  85  67  83  67 /  40  50  60  60  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  88  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  60  60
DELL CITY               67  86  65  84  65 /  50  50  60  40  50
FORT HANCOCK            70  88  71  85  71 /  50  60  60  40  50
LOMA LINDA              64  81  66  86  66 /  60  60  60  50  50
FABENS                  71  88  71  85  71 /  60  60  60  50  60
SANTA TERESA            69  87  69  84  69 /  60  60  60  60  60
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  85  70  85  70 /  60  60  60  60  60
JORNADA RANGE           66  85  64  83  64 /  60  60  60  60  60
HATCH                   67  85  66  83  66 /  60  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS                68  86  68  84  68 /  60  60  60  60  60
OROGRANDE               68  86  68  84  68 /  60  60  60  60  50
MAYHILL                 54  72  52  71  52 /  70  80  60  80  60
MESCALERO               55  73  51  71  51 /  70  80  60  70  60
TIMBERON                51  72  50  71  50 /  70  80  60  70  60
WINSTON                 59  80  58  79  57 /  60  80  60  80  60
HILLSBORO               65  80  67  84  67 /  60  60  60  70  60
SPACEPORT               67  86  67  82  67 /  60  60  60  60  60
LAKE ROBERTS            53  79  53  82  53 /  60  70  60  70  60
HURLEY                  62  82  60  78  60 /  60  60  60  70  60
CLIFF                   59  81  56  81  56 /  60  60  60  60  60
MULE CREEK              56  80  54  80  54 /  50  60  60  60  50
FAYWOOD                 62  82  64  83  64 /  60  60  60  70  60
ANIMAS                  69  88  69  84  69 /  40  60  60  60  60
HACHITA                 66  88  66  85  66 /  50  60  60  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          69  87  69  83  69 /  40  50  60  50  60
CLOVERDALE              60  80  66  81  66 /  50  60  60  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

BRICE/GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 312131
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
331 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING
A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE REGION...AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE PIECES ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A BIG TIME RAIN EVENT. AT
THE SURFACE WE HAVE A BOUNDARY (OLD COLD FRONT) THAT PUSHED IN
FROM THE EAST AND WILL HANG OUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARY WE HAVE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO HELP FUEL THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
FINAL INGREDIENT IS THAT THE WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME
TOGETHER TO GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT MAKING RAIN AND THESE STORMS WILL BE
VERY SLOW MOVING. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND PROBABLY INTO SUNDAY. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THAT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT HAD BEEN TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE
OVER AND RECENTER ITSELF TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL HELP BRIEFLY PUSH
THE MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA. BUT DESPITE THE LESS MOIST AIR WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HOPEFULLY THE THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS WILL
DIMINISH. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE BACK TO OUR
WEST...BUT FOR NOW I DON`T SEE ANOTHER BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE...BUT
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR MORE NORMAL DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND RAIN HANGING
AROUND AS YOU IMAGINE WE WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE). HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
RUNNING 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE
AS THE MOISTURE AND THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN MOVES OFF WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT BUT STILL RUN 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z - 02/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
NMRS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU PD. EXPECT P6SM
FEW-SCT050-070 SCT-BKN100-140 BKN200-250. HOWEVER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF 1-2 SM +TSRA WITH CIGS
BKN030-040. WIND G40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. EASTERN SLOPES
OF AREA MTS COULD SEE PERIODS OF SCT-BKN015-025 09Z-18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SLOW STORM MOTION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FOR THE LOWLANDS AND LIKELY ABOVE 50 PERCENT IN AREA MOUNTAINS. A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL START SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST AND DRAWS IN SOME DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR FROM
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  87  70  85  70 /  60  60  60  60  60
SIERRA BLANCA           71  83  71  78  71 /  50  50  60  40  50
LAS CRUCES              68  86  68  83  68 /  60  60  60  60  60
ALAMOGORDO              69  87  69  82  69 /  70  60  60  60  50
CLOUDCROFT              48  63  47  64  47 /  70  80  60  70  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  85  67  81  67 /  60  60  60  60  60
SILVER CITY             62  80  60  78  60 /  60  60  60  70  60
DEMING                  68  85  68  83  68 /  60  60  60  60  60
LORDSBURG               66  85  67  83  67 /  40  50  60  60  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  88  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  60  60
DELL CITY               67  86  65  84  65 /  50  50  60  40  50
FORT HANCOCK            70  88  71  85  71 /  50  60  60  40  50
LOMA LINDA              64  81  66  86  66 /  60  60  60  50  50
FABENS                  71  88  71  85  71 /  60  60  60  50  60
SANTA TERESA            69  87  69  84  69 /  60  60  60  60  60
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  85  70  85  70 /  60  60  60  60  60
JORNADA RANGE           66  85  64  83  64 /  60  60  60  60  60
HATCH                   67  85  66  83  66 /  60  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS                68  86  68  84  68 /  60  60  60  60  60
OROGRANDE               68  86  68  84  68 /  60  60  60  60  50
MAYHILL                 54  72  52  71  52 /  70  80  60  80  60
MESCALERO               55  73  51  71  51 /  70  80  60  70  60
TIMBERON                51  72  50  71  50 /  70  80  60  70  60
WINSTON                 59  80  58  79  57 /  60  80  60  80  60
HILLSBORO               65  80  67  84  67 /  60  60  60  70  60
SPACEPORT               67  86  67  82  67 /  60  60  60  60  60
LAKE ROBERTS            53  79  53  82  53 /  60  70  60  70  60
HURLEY                  62  82  60  78  60 /  60  60  60  70  60
CLIFF                   59  81  56  81  56 /  60  60  60  60  60
MULE CREEK              56  80  54  80  54 /  50  60  60  60  50
FAYWOOD                 62  82  64  83  64 /  60  60  60  70  60
ANIMAS                  69  88  69  84  69 /  40  60  60  60  60
HACHITA                 66  88  66  85  66 /  50  60  60  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          69  87  69  83  69 /  40  50  60  50  60
CLOVERDALE              60  80  66  81  66 /  50  60  60  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

BRICE/GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 312131
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
331 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING
A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE REGION...AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE PIECES ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A BIG TIME RAIN EVENT. AT
THE SURFACE WE HAVE A BOUNDARY (OLD COLD FRONT) THAT PUSHED IN
FROM THE EAST AND WILL HANG OUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARY WE HAVE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO HELP FUEL THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
FINAL INGREDIENT IS THAT THE WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME
TOGETHER TO GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT MAKING RAIN AND THESE STORMS WILL BE
VERY SLOW MOVING. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND PROBABLY INTO SUNDAY. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THAT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT HAD BEEN TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE
OVER AND RECENTER ITSELF TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL HELP BRIEFLY PUSH
THE MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA. BUT DESPITE THE LESS MOIST AIR WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HOPEFULLY THE THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS WILL
DIMINISH. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE BACK TO OUR
WEST...BUT FOR NOW I DON`T SEE ANOTHER BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE...BUT
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR MORE NORMAL DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND RAIN HANGING
AROUND AS YOU IMAGINE WE WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE). HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
RUNNING 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE
AS THE MOISTURE AND THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN MOVES OFF WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT BUT STILL RUN 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z - 02/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
NMRS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU PD. EXPECT P6SM
FEW-SCT050-070 SCT-BKN100-140 BKN200-250. HOWEVER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF 1-2 SM +TSRA WITH CIGS
BKN030-040. WIND G40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. EASTERN SLOPES
OF AREA MTS COULD SEE PERIODS OF SCT-BKN015-025 09Z-18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SLOW STORM MOTION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FOR THE LOWLANDS AND LIKELY ABOVE 50 PERCENT IN AREA MOUNTAINS. A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL START SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST AND DRAWS IN SOME DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR FROM
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  87  70  85  70 /  60  60  60  60  60
SIERRA BLANCA           71  83  71  78  71 /  50  50  60  40  50
LAS CRUCES              68  86  68  83  68 /  60  60  60  60  60
ALAMOGORDO              69  87  69  82  69 /  70  60  60  60  50
CLOUDCROFT              48  63  47  64  47 /  70  80  60  70  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  85  67  81  67 /  60  60  60  60  60
SILVER CITY             62  80  60  78  60 /  60  60  60  70  60
DEMING                  68  85  68  83  68 /  60  60  60  60  60
LORDSBURG               66  85  67  83  67 /  40  50  60  60  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  88  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  60  60
DELL CITY               67  86  65  84  65 /  50  50  60  40  50
FORT HANCOCK            70  88  71  85  71 /  50  60  60  40  50
LOMA LINDA              64  81  66  86  66 /  60  60  60  50  50
FABENS                  71  88  71  85  71 /  60  60  60  50  60
SANTA TERESA            69  87  69  84  69 /  60  60  60  60  60
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  85  70  85  70 /  60  60  60  60  60
JORNADA RANGE           66  85  64  83  64 /  60  60  60  60  60
HATCH                   67  85  66  83  66 /  60  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS                68  86  68  84  68 /  60  60  60  60  60
OROGRANDE               68  86  68  84  68 /  60  60  60  60  50
MAYHILL                 54  72  52  71  52 /  70  80  60  80  60
MESCALERO               55  73  51  71  51 /  70  80  60  70  60
TIMBERON                51  72  50  71  50 /  70  80  60  70  60
WINSTON                 59  80  58  79  57 /  60  80  60  80  60
HILLSBORO               65  80  67  84  67 /  60  60  60  70  60
SPACEPORT               67  86  67  82  67 /  60  60  60  60  60
LAKE ROBERTS            53  79  53  82  53 /  60  70  60  70  60
HURLEY                  62  82  60  78  60 /  60  60  60  70  60
CLIFF                   59  81  56  81  56 /  60  60  60  60  60
MULE CREEK              56  80  54  80  54 /  50  60  60  60  50
FAYWOOD                 62  82  64  83  64 /  60  60  60  70  60
ANIMAS                  69  88  69  84  69 /  40  60  60  60  60
HACHITA                 66  88  66  85  66 /  50  60  60  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          69  87  69  83  69 /  40  50  60  50  60
CLOVERDALE              60  80  66  81  66 /  50  60  60  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

BRICE/GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 312131
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
331 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING
A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE REGION...AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE PIECES ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A BIG TIME RAIN EVENT. AT
THE SURFACE WE HAVE A BOUNDARY (OLD COLD FRONT) THAT PUSHED IN
FROM THE EAST AND WILL HANG OUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARY WE HAVE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO HELP FUEL THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
FINAL INGREDIENT IS THAT THE WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME
TOGETHER TO GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT MAKING RAIN AND THESE STORMS WILL BE
VERY SLOW MOVING. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND PROBABLY INTO SUNDAY. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THAT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT HAD BEEN TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE
OVER AND RECENTER ITSELF TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL HELP BRIEFLY PUSH
THE MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA. BUT DESPITE THE LESS MOIST AIR WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT HOPEFULLY THE THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS WILL
DIMINISH. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE BACK TO OUR
WEST...BUT FOR NOW I DON`T SEE ANOTHER BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE...BUT
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR MORE NORMAL DAILY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND RAIN HANGING
AROUND AS YOU IMAGINE WE WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE). HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
RUNNING 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WE
AS THE MOISTURE AND THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN MOVES OFF WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT BUT STILL RUN 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z - 02/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
NMRS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU PD. EXPECT P6SM
FEW-SCT050-070 SCT-BKN100-140 BKN200-250. HOWEVER AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF 1-2 SM +TSRA WITH CIGS
BKN030-040. WIND G40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. EASTERN SLOPES
OF AREA MTS COULD SEE PERIODS OF SCT-BKN015-025 09Z-18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SLOW STORM MOTION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 30 PERCENT
FOR THE LOWLANDS AND LIKELY ABOVE 50 PERCENT IN AREA MOUNTAINS. A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL START SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST AND DRAWS IN SOME DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR FROM
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  87  70  85  70 /  60  60  60  60  60
SIERRA BLANCA           71  83  71  78  71 /  50  50  60  40  50
LAS CRUCES              68  86  68  83  68 /  60  60  60  60  60
ALAMOGORDO              69  87  69  82  69 /  70  60  60  60  50
CLOUDCROFT              48  63  47  64  47 /  70  80  60  70  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  85  67  81  67 /  60  60  60  60  60
SILVER CITY             62  80  60  78  60 /  60  60  60  70  60
DEMING                  68  85  68  83  68 /  60  60  60  60  60
LORDSBURG               66  85  67  83  67 /  40  50  60  60  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  88  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  60  60
DELL CITY               67  86  65  84  65 /  50  50  60  40  50
FORT HANCOCK            70  88  71  85  71 /  50  60  60  40  50
LOMA LINDA              64  81  66  86  66 /  60  60  60  50  50
FABENS                  71  88  71  85  71 /  60  60  60  50  60
SANTA TERESA            69  87  69  84  69 /  60  60  60  60  60
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  85  70  85  70 /  60  60  60  60  60
JORNADA RANGE           66  85  64  83  64 /  60  60  60  60  60
HATCH                   67  85  66  83  66 /  60  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS                68  86  68  84  68 /  60  60  60  60  60
OROGRANDE               68  86  68  84  68 /  60  60  60  60  50
MAYHILL                 54  72  52  71  52 /  70  80  60  80  60
MESCALERO               55  73  51  71  51 /  70  80  60  70  60
TIMBERON                51  72  50  71  50 /  70  80  60  70  60
WINSTON                 59  80  58  79  57 /  60  80  60  80  60
HILLSBORO               65  80  67  84  67 /  60  60  60  70  60
SPACEPORT               67  86  67  82  67 /  60  60  60  60  60
LAKE ROBERTS            53  79  53  82  53 /  60  70  60  70  60
HURLEY                  62  82  60  78  60 /  60  60  60  70  60
CLIFF                   59  81  56  81  56 /  60  60  60  60  60
MULE CREEK              56  80  54  80  54 /  50  60  60  60  50
FAYWOOD                 62  82  64  83  64 /  60  60  60  70  60
ANIMAS                  69  88  69  84  69 /  40  60  60  60  60
HACHITA                 66  88  66  85  66 /  50  60  60  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          69  87  69  83  69 /  40  50  60  50  60
CLOVERDALE              60  80  66  81  66 /  50  60  60  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

BRICE/GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KAMA 312051
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
351 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP TROUGH TO THE EAST. IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STEERED FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OUT OF ANY OF THESE STORMS...AND IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THEY
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FLATTENS OUT...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL BRING ANOTHER DECENT SUMMER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES...SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY DEPENDING ON
YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE AN
INITIAL PUSH WEDNESDAY AND THEN A FINAL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS
WITH THE OTHER COLD FRONTS THIS SUMMER...FEEL CONFIDENT IN A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  83  61  84  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                  57  89  62  90  64 /   0   5   5  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              58  80  59  83  60 /  10  20  20  10  10
BORGER TX                  61  86  64  87  65 /   5   5   5  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              60  84  62  84  63 /  20  10  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  58  83  61  83  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
CLARENDON TX               60  84  63  86  65 /   5   5   5  10  10
DALHART TX                 57  80  60  82  60 /  20  20  20  10  10
GUYMON OK                  59  86  62  87  62 /   5   5   5  10  10
HEREFORD TX                58  81  60  81  60 /  20  10  10  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                57  87  61  89  63 /   0   5   0  10  10
PAMPA TX                   58  84  62  85  63 /   5   5   5  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                60  86  63  88  64 /   0   5   5  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              62  87  64  89  65 /   0   5   0  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 312051
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
351 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND DEEP TROUGH TO THE EAST. IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...A FEW SHOWERS OR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STEERED FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH SATURDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OUT OF ANY OF THESE STORMS...AND IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THEY
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FLATTENS OUT...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RIDING
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL BRING ANOTHER DECENT SUMMER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES...SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY DEPENDING ON
YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE AN
INITIAL PUSH WEDNESDAY AND THEN A FINAL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS
WITH THE OTHER COLD FRONTS THIS SUMMER...FEEL CONFIDENT IN A WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  83  61  84  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                  57  89  62  90  64 /   0   5   5  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              58  80  59  83  60 /  10  20  20  10  10
BORGER TX                  61  86  64  87  65 /   5   5   5  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              60  84  62  84  63 /  20  10  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  58  83  61  83  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
CLARENDON TX               60  84  63  86  65 /   5   5   5  10  10
DALHART TX                 57  80  60  82  60 /  20  20  20  10  10
GUYMON OK                  59  86  62  87  62 /   5   5   5  10  10
HEREFORD TX                58  81  60  81  60 /  20  10  10  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                57  87  61  89  63 /   0   5   0  10  10
PAMPA TX                   58  84  62  85  63 /   5   5   5  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                60  86  63  88  64 /   0   5   5  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              62  87  64  89  65 /   0   5   0  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/06





000
FXUS64 KFWD 312035
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY COOL AND CLOUDY DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED VERY NEAR ATHENS AND COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TX/LA
BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHERLY FLOW.
EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN IS
RATHER INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NEVER
REALLY GETS OUT OF CONTROL...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES KEEPING IT
IN CHECK. MEANWHILE...A PRONOUNCED TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUD COVER AND BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM INTO THE MID
90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER HEIGHTS DEVELOPING AND LINGERING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING WESTERN U.S. RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES
SOMETHING THAT WE USUALLY SEE TOWARD THE END OF SUMMER WHEN A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT THROUGH MIDDLE AUGUST BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK WITH MORE RAIN
CHANCES ON THE HORIZON.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1222 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
IFR CIGS OVER TARRANT COUNTY ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING TO
MVFR. WILL SHOW MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
A GRADUALLY RISING CIG TO VFR BY 22Z. VFR CIGS NEAR 035 SHOULD
PREVAIL THIS EVENING...BUT WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING THESE WILL FALL
BACK TO MVFR BY 4Z...ANY MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH IFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR AT THIS POINT...BUT IT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE CIGS SHOULD BE SLOW TO LIFT
TO VFR FRIDAY...LIKELY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR WACO...APPEARS THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITE
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL...BUT AM WATCHING MVFR CIGS TO
THE NORTH CLOSELY TO SEE IF THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT THE
SITE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS SHOULD SPREAD IN BY MIDNIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...GENERALLY 10KT NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              68  88  70  92  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             65  81  65  88  67 /  20  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            65  86  67  90  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          64  85  66  90  68 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  85  68  89  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  85  69  89  69 /  20  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  90  69  93  71 /  20  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  89  66  92  68 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 312035
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY COOL AND CLOUDY DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED VERY NEAR ATHENS AND COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TX/LA
BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHERLY FLOW.
EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE APPEARS THAT IT WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW SO WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN IS
RATHER INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST STRENGTHENS THROUGH MID WEEK BUT NEVER
REALLY GETS OUT OF CONTROL...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES KEEPING IT
IN CHECK. MEANWHILE...A PRONOUNCED TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUD COVER AND BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM INTO THE MID
90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER HEIGHTS DEVELOPING AND LINGERING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FROM
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING WESTERN U.S. RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN RESEMBLES
SOMETHING THAT WE USUALLY SEE TOWARD THE END OF SUMMER WHEN A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT THROUGH MIDDLE AUGUST BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK WITH MORE RAIN
CHANCES ON THE HORIZON.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1222 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
IFR CIGS OVER TARRANT COUNTY ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING TO
MVFR. WILL SHOW MVFR CIGS PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
A GRADUALLY RISING CIG TO VFR BY 22Z. VFR CIGS NEAR 035 SHOULD
PREVAIL THIS EVENING...BUT WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING THESE WILL FALL
BACK TO MVFR BY 4Z...ANY MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH IFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR AT THIS POINT...BUT IT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE CIGS SHOULD BE SLOW TO LIFT
TO VFR FRIDAY...LIKELY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

FOR WACO...APPEARS THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITE
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL...BUT AM WATCHING MVFR CIGS TO
THE NORTH CLOSELY TO SEE IF THEY CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT THE
SITE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS SHOULD SPREAD IN BY MIDNIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW.

OTHERWISE...GENERALLY 10KT NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              68  88  70  92  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             65  81  65  88  67 /  20  10   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            65  86  67  90  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          64  85  66  90  68 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            69  86  70  91  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           68  85  68  89  70 /  10  10   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         70  85  69  89  69 /  20  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            68  90  69  93  71 /  20  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  89  66  92  68 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 312025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

40

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  89  71  90  71 /  40  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  90  73  90  73 /  50  40  30  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47




000
FXUS64 KHGX 312025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE TX
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LEANED HEAVILY ON THE 12Z NAM12 ALTHOUGH A MODEL CONSENSUS AGREED
WITH THE NAM OUTPUT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SEABREEZE HAS
HELPED GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
EXPECT THESE WILL BE FAIRLY SCATTERED THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SINKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE COVERAGE LATER
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE BEST PW/S OF ABOUT 2 INCHES
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INLAND AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TRY
AND BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
AND MORE HUMID TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

40

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY...
PROBABLY STALL AND MEANDER BACK AND FORTH NEAR THE COASTLINE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH LOW SEAS... EXCEPT IN AND NEAR STORMS. AN
ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS
REMAINING BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1209 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO ONGOING TAF PACKAGE...MAINLY TO PUSH BACK
TEMPOS A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
SE TX. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME DESTABILIZATION IN ADVANCE. GOES PW
ESTIMATES 2-2.3" PW`S ACROSS THE AREA. DO ANTICIPATE INCREASED SCT
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS N HALF OF SE TX THIS AFTN...THEN
SAGGING SWD TOWARD 1-10 & METRO AREAS DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING FURTHER
ENHANCEMENT/REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 1-7AM CDT SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS-
LIVINGSTON LINE SO KEPT VCTS`S GOING OVERNIGHT AT LEAST UNTIL
TRENDS & INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED. CONSIDERING
DEEPER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. PROBABLY SEE A BREAK AFTER SUNRISE...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
MORE SCT ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES SITUATED AND IF WE CAN GET SOME INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  89  71  90  71 /  40  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  90  73  90  73 /  50  40  30  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  87  79  89  79 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47



000
FXUS64 KCRP 312018
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
318 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER PATTERN WHICH DEPICT
A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE SWRN/WRN CONUS AND AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING ACRS THE
PLAINS/ERN TX. THIS PATTERN WL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (CURRENTLY
OVER CNTRL TX PER MSAS MSLP/THETA-E PATTERN) TO ENTER THE CWA BY
EARLY FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY STALL/MEANDER OVR THE CWA DRG THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GOES SOUNDER DATA REVEAL COPIOUS
MSTR/HIGH PWAT VALUES ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS-BASED SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWAT VALUES GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF
1.75-2 INCHES OVER THE NRN CWA. EXPECT THE FOREGOING UPPER
SHORTWAVES TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. HWR...THE
COMBINATION OF COPIOUS MSTR/SFC FRONTAL FORCING AND ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION. ANTICIPATE ISOLD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN CWA THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT.
ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE COPIOUS MSTR/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY/SLOW EXPECTED
STORM MOTIONS...THE NAM SOUNDINGS DONT QUITE DEPICT A SATURATED
VERTICAL COLUMN IN THE 0-4KM WARM LAYER (SUFFICIENT FOR COLLISION
COALESCENCE) AND CAPE VALUE COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG (SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF PCPN POTENTIALLY IN SOLID FORM) AND THUS WL NOT CERTAIN
REGARDING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED FRIDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR/PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...THERMALLY-GENERATED SCEC WIND ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
EVENING OVER THE SRN BAYS/SRN NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK
FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX ON SAT. MODEL SOLNS VARY ON
PLACEMENT OF THE BDRY BUT ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH IT NEAR OR
ACROSS S TX. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE ALSO PROGD TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SAT. MODELS ALSO SHOW MOD INSTABILITY. THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION IS THAT THE MODELS PROG THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY E PLACING IT MORE DIRECTLY OVER S
TX. THINK THAT DESPITE THE HIGH ALOFT...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SCT CONVECTION
ON SAT AND COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED HVY RAIN ALONG THE BDRY WITH ANY
TRAINING/SLOW MOVG STORMS. BY SUN THE FCST BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUNS SHOW THAT AN INVERTED SFC TROF IS DRAPED
ACROSS S TX WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BDRY JUST N OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS IF IT IS THE FRONT OR AN INVERTED TROF...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOL/SCT CONVECTION ON SUN. AN ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED MON-WED WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS S TX FOR ISOL SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. COOLER TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCREASED
MOISTURE/PRECIP THEN A WARMING TREND RESUMES NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER
AIRMASS DVLPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  93  76  93  74  /  10  20  30  30  20
VICTORIA          76  92  74  91  71  /  40  30  30  30  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  99  78  /  10  40  30  30  20
ALICE             76  96  75  94  73  /  10  30  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  86  78  89  78  /  20  30  30  30  20
COTULLA           77  96  77  95  73  /  20  30  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        76  96  76  94  74  /  10  20  30  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  87  79  88  78  /  10  20  30  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 312018
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
318 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER PATTERN WHICH DEPICT
A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE SWRN/WRN CONUS AND AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING ACRS THE
PLAINS/ERN TX. THIS PATTERN WL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (CURRENTLY
OVER CNTRL TX PER MSAS MSLP/THETA-E PATTERN) TO ENTER THE CWA BY
EARLY FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY STALL/MEANDER OVR THE CWA DRG THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GOES SOUNDER DATA REVEAL COPIOUS
MSTR/HIGH PWAT VALUES ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS-BASED SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWAT VALUES GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF
1.75-2 INCHES OVER THE NRN CWA. EXPECT THE FOREGOING UPPER
SHORTWAVES TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. HWR...THE
COMBINATION OF COPIOUS MSTR/SFC FRONTAL FORCING AND ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION. ANTICIPATE ISOLD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN CWA THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT.
ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE COPIOUS MSTR/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY/SLOW EXPECTED
STORM MOTIONS...THE NAM SOUNDINGS DONT QUITE DEPICT A SATURATED
VERTICAL COLUMN IN THE 0-4KM WARM LAYER (SUFFICIENT FOR COLLISION
COALESCENCE) AND CAPE VALUE COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG (SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF PCPN POTENTIALLY IN SOLID FORM) AND THUS WL NOT CERTAIN
REGARDING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED FRIDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR/PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...THERMALLY-GENERATED SCEC WIND ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
EVENING OVER THE SRN BAYS/SRN NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK
FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX ON SAT. MODEL SOLNS VARY ON
PLACEMENT OF THE BDRY BUT ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH IT NEAR OR
ACROSS S TX. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE ALSO PROGD TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SAT. MODELS ALSO SHOW MOD INSTABILITY. THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION IS THAT THE MODELS PROG THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY E PLACING IT MORE DIRECTLY OVER S
TX. THINK THAT DESPITE THE HIGH ALOFT...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SCT CONVECTION
ON SAT AND COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED HVY RAIN ALONG THE BDRY WITH ANY
TRAINING/SLOW MOVG STORMS. BY SUN THE FCST BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUNS SHOW THAT AN INVERTED SFC TROF IS DRAPED
ACROSS S TX WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BDRY JUST N OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS IF IT IS THE FRONT OR AN INVERTED TROF...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOL/SCT CONVECTION ON SUN. AN ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED MON-WED WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS S TX FOR ISOL SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. COOLER TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCREASED
MOISTURE/PRECIP THEN A WARMING TREND RESUMES NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER
AIRMASS DVLPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  93  76  93  74  /  10  20  30  30  20
VICTORIA          76  92  74  91  71  /  40  30  30  30  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  99  78  /  10  40  30  30  20
ALICE             76  96  75  94  73  /  10  30  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  86  78  89  78  /  20  30  30  30  20
COTULLA           77  96  77  95  73  /  20  30  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        76  96  76  94  74  /  10  20  30  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  87  79  88  78  /  10  20  30  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KEWX 312013
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
313 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT STILL
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AND MID AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR A
TEMPLE TO FREDERICKSBURG TO ROCKPRINGS LINE. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
MEAGER ALONG THE FRONT THUS FAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
HOWEVER...HI RESOLUTION MODELS INSIST CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM AS THE FRONT REACHES
A MORE UNSTABLE REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF IT BACKS TO A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST POSITION.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED AND SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CALDWELL TO SOUTH AUSTIN TO MEDINA LINE.
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE CURRENTLY ANALYZED...2-2.2
INCHES OF PWAT...PRECIP LOADING.

FRONT SLOWS AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEAR THE I-10/U.S. 90 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIME ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CWA AND RIO GRANDE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS AND UP THE RIO GRANDE...CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. DRIER LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS BEING CONFINED ON
SATURDAY TO THE RIO GRANDE AND ON SUNDAY TO THE COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW POP WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS BOTH DAYS AND LOCATIONS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS "COOL" FOR AUGUST...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW 90S ELSEWHERE.
MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TROUGHS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
DEEP SOUTH. SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  90  72  90  73 /  20  10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  70  90  70 /  20  10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  92  71  90  72 /  40  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT