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000
FXUS64 KHGX 211454
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
954 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS OF 12Z UPPER AIR AND SURFACE DATA SHOWED MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA... WITH THE WEAK AREA OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE THAT HAD HELPED GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO HAVING SAGGED FARTHER SOUTH.
WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED RAIN MENTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  61  84  61  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  60  84  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  69  82  69  81 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14




000
FXUS64 KHGX 211454
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
954 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS OF 12Z UPPER AIR AND SURFACE DATA SHOWED MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA... WITH THE WEAK AREA OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE THAT HAD HELPED GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO HAVING SAGGED FARTHER SOUTH.
WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED RAIN MENTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  61  84  61  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  60  84  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  69  82  69  81 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 211422
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
922 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF NM...CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE ISOLD SHRA`S IN MEX JUST WEST OF EAGLE PASS TO WEST OF DEL
RIO WITH A FEW IN VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS UPPER
LOW JUST W OF THE AREA AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE...WILL MAINTAIN THE 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA.
DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER EAST WILL LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE CWA TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
EAST. OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CIG AT DRT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THEN THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED AT AUS AND EXPECT VIS TO DROP TO MVFR IN
BR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THEN
WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NM/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AND WEAKEN
THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST TODAY...WITH THE MOIST AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. LOW POPS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE RIO
GRANDE COUNTIES AND ON WEDNESDAY TO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY.
HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND MODEST 70-80 KT UPPER LEVEL...SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAK WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WED NIGHT INTO THU. WHERE THE
MODELS DISAGREE IS WITH RESPECT TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS. GIVEN
THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TEND TO FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35 FOR NOW...WITH LOW POPS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE
MOISTURE IS BETTER. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HIGHS POSSIBLE THU.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THU NIGHT...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA FRI AND SAT...THEN
FLATTENING ON SUN...AND MOVING EAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS FRI THROUGH
SUN...AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  61  84  61  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  56  84  56  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  58  86  60  84 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  58  82  59  79 /  -   -   -   10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  64  81  65  81 /  30  20  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  58  83  59  80 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  55  85  59  82 /  -   -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  57  85  58  82 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  59  84  59  81 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  61  86  63  83 /  -   -   -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  86  62  83 /  -   -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...81/TE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBRO 211151
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
651 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER
KENEDY COUNTY WITH A FEW STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTY. EXPECT MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PASS
OVER THE TERMINALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS MENTIONING OF THESE SHOWERS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. FURTHER
INLAND...DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS AND PREVIOUS RAINS CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA
IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED WEST OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING INTO
HEBBRONVILLE AND SOUTH INTO EDINBURG AND MCALLEN AREA. FURTHER
NORTH CEILING HAVE LOWER BETWEEN MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH IT HAS STAYED AROUND MVFR LEVEL. VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
SPREADS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THE DAY...THIS MOISTURE AND
CONTINUOUS EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER INLAND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
INCREASING PWATS AND ENHANCING SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO
ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AS DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING NE. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW 70S EAST
OF HWY 281.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR INFILTRATING SOUTH INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL
BE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP DRIER AIR WILL MARCH DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE
INTO THE BRO CWFA...WHILE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES RE-
CENTERED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DRY WEATHER WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST...INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED A LITTLE
LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. THUS...THESE WERE RAISED A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE EASTERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTENT LOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN STEADILY IMPROVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE.

COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAYBE THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND INCREASED
DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE LOCAL BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS...AS WAVES OCCASIONALLY WASH UP TO THE DUNE LINE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66






000
FXUS64 KBRO 211151
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
651 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER
KENEDY COUNTY WITH A FEW STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTY. EXPECT MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PASS
OVER THE TERMINALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS MENTIONING OF THESE SHOWERS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. FURTHER
INLAND...DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS AND PREVIOUS RAINS CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA
IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED WEST OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING INTO
HEBBRONVILLE AND SOUTH INTO EDINBURG AND MCALLEN AREA. FURTHER
NORTH CEILING HAVE LOWER BETWEEN MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH IT HAS STAYED AROUND MVFR LEVEL. VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
SPREADS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THE DAY...THIS MOISTURE AND
CONTINUOUS EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER INLAND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
INCREASING PWATS AND ENHANCING SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO
ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AS DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING NE. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW 70S EAST
OF HWY 281.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR INFILTRATING SOUTH INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL
BE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP DRIER AIR WILL MARCH DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE
INTO THE BRO CWFA...WHILE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES RE-
CENTERED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DRY WEATHER WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST...INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED A LITTLE
LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. THUS...THESE WERE RAISED A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE EASTERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTENT LOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN STEADILY IMPROVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE.

COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAYBE THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND INCREASED
DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE LOCAL BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS...AS WAVES OCCASIONALLY WASH UP TO THE DUNE LINE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66







000
FXUS64 KBRO 211151
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
651 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER
KENEDY COUNTY WITH A FEW STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTY. EXPECT MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PASS
OVER THE TERMINALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS MENTIONING OF THESE SHOWERS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. FURTHER
INLAND...DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS AND PREVIOUS RAINS CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA
IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED WEST OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING INTO
HEBBRONVILLE AND SOUTH INTO EDINBURG AND MCALLEN AREA. FURTHER
NORTH CEILING HAVE LOWER BETWEEN MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH IT HAS STAYED AROUND MVFR LEVEL. VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
SPREADS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THE DAY...THIS MOISTURE AND
CONTINUOUS EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER INLAND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
INCREASING PWATS AND ENHANCING SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO
ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AS DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING NE. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW 70S EAST
OF HWY 281.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR INFILTRATING SOUTH INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL
BE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP DRIER AIR WILL MARCH DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE
INTO THE BRO CWFA...WHILE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES RE-
CENTERED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DRY WEATHER WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST...INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED A LITTLE
LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. THUS...THESE WERE RAISED A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE EASTERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTENT LOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN STEADILY IMPROVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE.

COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAYBE THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND INCREASED
DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE LOCAL BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS...AS WAVES OCCASIONALLY WASH UP TO THE DUNE LINE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66






000
FXUS64 KBRO 211151
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
651 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER
KENEDY COUNTY WITH A FEW STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTY. EXPECT MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PASS
OVER THE TERMINALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS MENTIONING OF THESE SHOWERS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. FURTHER
INLAND...DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS AND PREVIOUS RAINS CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA
IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED WEST OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING INTO
HEBBRONVILLE AND SOUTH INTO EDINBURG AND MCALLEN AREA. FURTHER
NORTH CEILING HAVE LOWER BETWEEN MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH IT HAS STAYED AROUND MVFR LEVEL. VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
SPREADS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THE DAY...THIS MOISTURE AND
CONTINUOUS EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER INLAND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
INCREASING PWATS AND ENHANCING SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO
ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AS DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING NE. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW 70S EAST
OF HWY 281.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR INFILTRATING SOUTH INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL
BE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP DRIER AIR WILL MARCH DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE
INTO THE BRO CWFA...WHILE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES RE-
CENTERED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DRY WEATHER WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST...INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED A LITTLE
LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. THUS...THESE WERE RAISED A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE EASTERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTENT LOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN STEADILY IMPROVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE.

COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAYBE THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND INCREASED
DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE LOCAL BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS...AS WAVES OCCASIONALLY WASH UP TO THE DUNE LINE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66






000
FXUS64 KBRO 211151
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
651 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER
KENEDY COUNTY WITH A FEW STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTY. EXPECT MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PASS
OVER THE TERMINALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS MENTIONING OF THESE SHOWERS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. FURTHER
INLAND...DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS AND PREVIOUS RAINS CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA
IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED WEST OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING INTO
HEBBRONVILLE AND SOUTH INTO EDINBURG AND MCALLEN AREA. FURTHER
NORTH CEILING HAVE LOWER BETWEEN MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH IT HAS STAYED AROUND MVFR LEVEL. VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
SPREADS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THE DAY...THIS MOISTURE AND
CONTINUOUS EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER INLAND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
INCREASING PWATS AND ENHANCING SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO
ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AS DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING NE. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW 70S EAST
OF HWY 281.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR INFILTRATING SOUTH INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL
BE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP DRIER AIR WILL MARCH DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE
INTO THE BRO CWFA...WHILE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES RE-
CENTERED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DRY WEATHER WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST...INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED A LITTLE
LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. THUS...THESE WERE RAISED A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE EASTERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTENT LOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN STEADILY IMPROVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE.

COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAYBE THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND INCREASED
DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE LOCAL BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS...AS WAVES OCCASIONALLY WASH UP TO THE DUNE LINE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66






000
FXUS64 KBRO 211151
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
651 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER
KENEDY COUNTY WITH A FEW STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTY. EXPECT MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PASS
OVER THE TERMINALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS MENTIONING OF THESE SHOWERS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. FURTHER
INLAND...DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS AND PREVIOUS RAINS CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA
IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED WEST OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING INTO
HEBBRONVILLE AND SOUTH INTO EDINBURG AND MCALLEN AREA. FURTHER
NORTH CEILING HAVE LOWER BETWEEN MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH IT HAS STAYED AROUND MVFR LEVEL. VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
SPREADS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THE DAY...THIS MOISTURE AND
CONTINUOUS EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER INLAND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
INCREASING PWATS AND ENHANCING SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO
ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AS DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING NE. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW 70S EAST
OF HWY 281.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR INFILTRATING SOUTH INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL
BE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP DRIER AIR WILL MARCH DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE
INTO THE BRO CWFA...WHILE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES RE-
CENTERED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DRY WEATHER WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST...INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED A LITTLE
LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. THUS...THESE WERE RAISED A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE EASTERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTENT LOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN STEADILY IMPROVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE.

COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAYBE THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND INCREASED
DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE LOCAL BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS...AS WAVES OCCASIONALLY WASH UP TO THE DUNE LINE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KAMA 211150
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
650 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...

LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND
14Z AT KGUY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AT KDHT AND KAMA AS
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. KAMA IS LEAST LIKELY TO
DROP BELOW VFR BUT WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. ONCE THE FOG/STRATUS
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF ALL THREE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT BETTER CHANCES DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KDHT
AND KAMA.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IR/FOG PRODUCT SHOW AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FAR
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING.

AN AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS TODAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAVE LIMITED
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL RESULT IN MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TIMING AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS WITH A FOCUS FOR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ENDING
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW EVENING.

THEREAFTER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS IN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND RESULTS IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AREA WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE EMERGES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF APPROACHING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL/TROUGH PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AT LEAST PER THE GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE
CLOSED OFF WITH BETTER MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION MAINLY JUST AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 211150
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
650 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...

LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND
14Z AT KGUY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AT KDHT AND KAMA AS
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. KAMA IS LEAST LIKELY TO
DROP BELOW VFR BUT WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. ONCE THE FOG/STRATUS
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF ALL THREE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT BETTER CHANCES DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KDHT
AND KAMA.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IR/FOG PRODUCT SHOW AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FAR
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING.

AN AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS TODAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAVE LIMITED
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL RESULT IN MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TIMING AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS WITH A FOCUS FOR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ENDING
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW EVENING.

THEREAFTER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS IN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND RESULTS IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AREA WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE EMERGES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF APPROACHING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL/TROUGH PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AT LEAST PER THE GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE
CLOSED OFF WITH BETTER MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION MAINLY JUST AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 211150
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
650 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...

LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO PATCHY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND
14Z AT KGUY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AT KDHT AND KAMA AS
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. KAMA IS LEAST LIKELY TO
DROP BELOW VFR BUT WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. ONCE THE FOG/STRATUS
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF ALL THREE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON BUT BETTER CHANCES DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KDHT
AND KAMA.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IR/FOG PRODUCT SHOW AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FAR
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING.

AN AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS TODAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAVE LIMITED
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL RESULT IN MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TIMING AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS WITH A FOCUS FOR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ENDING
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW EVENING.

THEREAFTER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS IN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND RESULTS IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AREA WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE EMERGES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF APPROACHING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL/TROUGH PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AT LEAST PER THE GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE
CLOSED OFF WITH BETTER MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION MAINLY JUST AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KCRP 211141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 211141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79





000
FXUS64 KCRP 211141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79




000
FXUS64 KCRP 211141
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 211141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79




000
FXUS64 KCRP 211141
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIETY OF FLIGHT RULES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
AT KCRP...MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KLRD...AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT KVCT/KALI.
STRATUS AT KLRD SHOULD GRADUALLY MID OUT WITH RISING CIGS BY MID
MRNG WITH VFR LEVEL CIGS FROM LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN. CU FIELD
XPCTD TO DVLP AT KCRP THIS MRNG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
COVERAGE POSSIBLE AROUND MID MRNG...BUT NOT LIKELY. OTHERWISE VFR
TO PREVAIL. KVCT/KALI MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS EARLY
THROUGH 14/15Z WITH VFR OTHERWISE PREVAILING THRU THE DAY. VFR TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLY MVFR VSBYS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. ISO SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTN
AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. LIGHT ENERLY
WINDS THIS MRNG /MORE ESERLY AT TIMES AT KLRD/ INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS MIDDAY/AFTN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMAF 211136
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and a few thunderstorms have persisted through the night
across western portions of the area, and additional development
over the past hour or so has been observed from KFST northwestward
to just east of KPEQ. The overall trend is expected to be that of
increasing shower/thunderstorm coverage today, thus have
maintained -SHRA mention at area terminals for the duration, with
the exception of KMAF, where generally dry conditions are expected
through early evening. Widespread MVFR ceilings/visibilities are
expected by this afternoon, with transient IFR conditions possible
with passing storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a negatively-tilted upper trough centered over far
West Texas that has been shearing out over the past 24 hours,
resulting in convection along and west of the Pecos.  This activity
is forecast to continue today and tonight, w/the focus shifting east
as the trough lifts NE.  Over the PacNW, a trough moving onshore is
forecast to quickly move inland today, and phase w/the trough
overhead overnight tonight, and shift the better rain chances east
of the Pecos Wednesday as large-scale ascent commences.  00Z KMAF
RAOB came in w/a PWAT just under an inch, w/models saturating the
column upwards to H5 by 12Z Wednesday, increasing PWATs to 1.25" or
more over most of the FA.  This is right at 2 STD DEVs above normal,
so heavy rainfall will be possible.  W/storm motions of around 10
kts, we`ll keep mention of this to the HWO.  Precip chances should
drop off Wed night W-E as the trough exits the area.  An upper ridge
then begins building in from the west, and will move east of the
region over the weekend, keeping the extended dry/

W/abundant cloud cover, columns moistening up, and sfc dewpoints
anchored in place, diurnal spreads on temps will be small, at least
in the short-term.  Therefore, we`ve generally stuck to the cooler
end of the highs, and warmer end of the lows.  For the extended,
upper ridging, buffer soundings, and H85 temp fields suggest leaning
toward the warmer GFS numbers over the ECMWF.

Beyond this forecast, the ECMWF brings an upper trough out of the
PacNW, separating it from the flow, closing it off, and digging it
to SE NM by 00Z Wednesday, whereas the GFS and DGEX favor zonal flow
aloft during this time.  Should the ECMWF pan out, this will be our
next shot at precip, and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 211136
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and a few thunderstorms have persisted through the night
across western portions of the area, and additional development
over the past hour or so has been observed from KFST northwestward
to just east of KPEQ. The overall trend is expected to be that of
increasing shower/thunderstorm coverage today, thus have
maintained -SHRA mention at area terminals for the duration, with
the exception of KMAF, where generally dry conditions are expected
through early evening. Widespread MVFR ceilings/visibilities are
expected by this afternoon, with transient IFR conditions possible
with passing storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a negatively-tilted upper trough centered over far
West Texas that has been shearing out over the past 24 hours,
resulting in convection along and west of the Pecos.  This activity
is forecast to continue today and tonight, w/the focus shifting east
as the trough lifts NE.  Over the PacNW, a trough moving onshore is
forecast to quickly move inland today, and phase w/the trough
overhead overnight tonight, and shift the better rain chances east
of the Pecos Wednesday as large-scale ascent commences.  00Z KMAF
RAOB came in w/a PWAT just under an inch, w/models saturating the
column upwards to H5 by 12Z Wednesday, increasing PWATs to 1.25" or
more over most of the FA.  This is right at 2 STD DEVs above normal,
so heavy rainfall will be possible.  W/storm motions of around 10
kts, we`ll keep mention of this to the HWO.  Precip chances should
drop off Wed night W-E as the trough exits the area.  An upper ridge
then begins building in from the west, and will move east of the
region over the weekend, keeping the extended dry/

W/abundant cloud cover, columns moistening up, and sfc dewpoints
anchored in place, diurnal spreads on temps will be small, at least
in the short-term.  Therefore, we`ve generally stuck to the cooler
end of the highs, and warmer end of the lows.  For the extended,
upper ridging, buffer soundings, and H85 temp fields suggest leaning
toward the warmer GFS numbers over the ECMWF.

Beyond this forecast, the ECMWF brings an upper trough out of the
PacNW, separating it from the flow, closing it off, and digging it
to SE NM by 00Z Wednesday, whereas the GFS and DGEX favor zonal flow
aloft during this time.  Should the ECMWF pan out, this will be our
next shot at precip, and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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Check us out on the internet at:
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000
FXUS64 KMAF 211136
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and a few thunderstorms have persisted through the night
across western portions of the area, and additional development
over the past hour or so has been observed from KFST northwestward
to just east of KPEQ. The overall trend is expected to be that of
increasing shower/thunderstorm coverage today, thus have
maintained -SHRA mention at area terminals for the duration, with
the exception of KMAF, where generally dry conditions are expected
through early evening. Widespread MVFR ceilings/visibilities are
expected by this afternoon, with transient IFR conditions possible
with passing storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a negatively-tilted upper trough centered over far
West Texas that has been shearing out over the past 24 hours,
resulting in convection along and west of the Pecos.  This activity
is forecast to continue today and tonight, w/the focus shifting east
as the trough lifts NE.  Over the PacNW, a trough moving onshore is
forecast to quickly move inland today, and phase w/the trough
overhead overnight tonight, and shift the better rain chances east
of the Pecos Wednesday as large-scale ascent commences.  00Z KMAF
RAOB came in w/a PWAT just under an inch, w/models saturating the
column upwards to H5 by 12Z Wednesday, increasing PWATs to 1.25" or
more over most of the FA.  This is right at 2 STD DEVs above normal,
so heavy rainfall will be possible.  W/storm motions of around 10
kts, we`ll keep mention of this to the HWO.  Precip chances should
drop off Wed night W-E as the trough exits the area.  An upper ridge
then begins building in from the west, and will move east of the
region over the weekend, keeping the extended dry/

W/abundant cloud cover, columns moistening up, and sfc dewpoints
anchored in place, diurnal spreads on temps will be small, at least
in the short-term.  Therefore, we`ve generally stuck to the cooler
end of the highs, and warmer end of the lows.  For the extended,
upper ridging, buffer soundings, and H85 temp fields suggest leaning
toward the warmer GFS numbers over the ECMWF.

Beyond this forecast, the ECMWF brings an upper trough out of the
PacNW, separating it from the flow, closing it off, and digging it
to SE NM by 00Z Wednesday, whereas the GFS and DGEX favor zonal flow
aloft during this time.  Should the ECMWF pan out, this will be our
next shot at precip, and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 211133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIG AT DRT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THEN THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED AT AUS AND EXPECT VIS TO DROP TO MVFR IN
BR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THEN
WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NM/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AND WEAKEN
THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST TODAY...WITH THE MOIST AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. LOW POPS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE RIO
GRANDE COUNTIES AND ON WEDNESDAY TO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY.
HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND MODEST 70-80 KT UPPER LEVEL...SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAK WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WED NIGHT INTO THU. WHERE THE
MODELS DISAGREE IS WITH RESPECT TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS. GIVEN
THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TEND TO FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35 FOR NOW...WITH LOW POPS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE
MOISTURE IS BETTER. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HIGHS POSSIBLE THU.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THU NIGHT...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA FRI AND SAT...THEN
FLATTENING ON SUN...AND MOVING EAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS FRI THROUGH
SUN...AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  61  84  61  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  56  84  56  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  58  86  60  84 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  58  82  59  79 /  -   -   -   10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  64  81  65  81 /  30  20  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  58  83  59  80 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  55  85  59  82 /  -   -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  57  85  58  82 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  59  84  59  81 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  61  86  63  83 /  -   -   -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  86  62  83 /  -   -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






000
FXUS64 KEWX 211133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIG AT DRT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THEN THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED AT AUS AND EXPECT VIS TO DROP TO MVFR IN
BR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THEN
WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NM/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AND WEAKEN
THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST TODAY...WITH THE MOIST AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. LOW POPS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE RIO
GRANDE COUNTIES AND ON WEDNESDAY TO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY.
HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND MODEST 70-80 KT UPPER LEVEL...SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAK WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WED NIGHT INTO THU. WHERE THE
MODELS DISAGREE IS WITH RESPECT TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS. GIVEN
THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TEND TO FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35 FOR NOW...WITH LOW POPS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE
MOISTURE IS BETTER. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HIGHS POSSIBLE THU.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THU NIGHT...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA FRI AND SAT...THEN
FLATTENING ON SUN...AND MOVING EAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS FRI THROUGH
SUN...AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  61  84  61  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  56  84  56  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  58  86  60  84 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  58  82  59  79 /  -   -   -   10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  64  81  65  81 /  30  20  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  58  83  59  80 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  55  85  59  82 /  -   -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  57  85  58  82 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  59  84  59  81 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  61  86  63  83 /  -   -   -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  86  62  83 /  -   -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






000
FXUS64 KEWX 211133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIG AT DRT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THEN THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED AT AUS AND EXPECT VIS TO DROP TO MVFR IN
BR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THEN
WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NM/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AND WEAKEN
THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST TODAY...WITH THE MOIST AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. LOW POPS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE RIO
GRANDE COUNTIES AND ON WEDNESDAY TO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY.
HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND MODEST 70-80 KT UPPER LEVEL...SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAK WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WED NIGHT INTO THU. WHERE THE
MODELS DISAGREE IS WITH RESPECT TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS. GIVEN
THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TEND TO FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35 FOR NOW...WITH LOW POPS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE
MOISTURE IS BETTER. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HIGHS POSSIBLE THU.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THU NIGHT...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA FRI AND SAT...THEN
FLATTENING ON SUN...AND MOVING EAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS FRI THROUGH
SUN...AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  61  84  61  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  56  84  56  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  58  86  60  84 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  58  82  59  79 /  -   -   -   10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  64  81  65  81 /  30  20  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  58  83  59  80 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  55  85  59  82 /  -   -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  57  85  58  82 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  59  84  59  81 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  61  86  63  83 /  -   -   -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  86  62  83 /  -   -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






000
FXUS64 KEWX 211133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIG AT DRT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THEN THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED AT AUS AND EXPECT VIS TO DROP TO MVFR IN
BR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THEN
WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NM/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AND WEAKEN
THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST TODAY...WITH THE MOIST AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. LOW POPS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE RIO
GRANDE COUNTIES AND ON WEDNESDAY TO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY.
HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND MODEST 70-80 KT UPPER LEVEL...SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAK WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WED NIGHT INTO THU. WHERE THE
MODELS DISAGREE IS WITH RESPECT TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS. GIVEN
THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TEND TO FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35 FOR NOW...WITH LOW POPS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE
MOISTURE IS BETTER. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HIGHS POSSIBLE THU.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THU NIGHT...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA FRI AND SAT...THEN
FLATTENING ON SUN...AND MOVING EAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS FRI THROUGH
SUN...AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  61  84  61  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  56  84  56  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  58  86  60  84 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  58  82  59  79 /  -   -   -   10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  64  81  65  81 /  30  20  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  58  83  59  80 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  55  85  59  82 /  -   -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  57  85  58  82 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  59  84  59  81 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  61  86  63  83 /  -   -   -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  86  62  83 /  -   -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






000
FXUS64 KEWX 211133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIG AT DRT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THEN THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED AT AUS AND EXPECT VIS TO DROP TO MVFR IN
BR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THEN
WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NM/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AND WEAKEN
THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST TODAY...WITH THE MOIST AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. LOW POPS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE RIO
GRANDE COUNTIES AND ON WEDNESDAY TO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY.
HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND MODEST 70-80 KT UPPER LEVEL...SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAK WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WED NIGHT INTO THU. WHERE THE
MODELS DISAGREE IS WITH RESPECT TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS. GIVEN
THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TEND TO FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35 FOR NOW...WITH LOW POPS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE
MOISTURE IS BETTER. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HIGHS POSSIBLE THU.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THU NIGHT...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA FRI AND SAT...THEN
FLATTENING ON SUN...AND MOVING EAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS FRI THROUGH
SUN...AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  61  84  61  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  56  84  56  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  58  86  60  84 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  58  82  59  79 /  -   -   -   10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  64  81  65  81 /  30  20  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  58  83  59  80 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  55  85  59  82 /  -   -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  57  85  58  82 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  59  84  59  81 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  61  86  63  83 /  -   -   -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  86  62  83 /  -   -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 211119
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH DRAWS
NEARER...OTHERWISE OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY QUIET.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE WINDS
HAVE BECOME CALM AT MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY FOG.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN SUFFICIENT IN THE METROPLEX TO
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE
MENTION OF FOG AT DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE GKY WHERE A TEMPO FOR 5SM SHOULD SUFFICE. OTHERWISE KACT
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL 15Z. INCREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAFS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE...A LIGHT WIND AND A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME. HOWEVER...THE VISIBILITY AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 1 MILE SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SINCE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
LACKING...WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE
IT PASSES TO THE EAST IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  62  83  61  79 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              82  57  83  56  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             79  58  77  55  75 /   5   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            84  57  82  57  81 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          82  56  80  55  78 /   5   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  63  81  61  77 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           83  59  80  56  78 /   5   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         83  61  83  58  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            82  57  83  56  81 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  56  82  57  81 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLUB 211119
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CLOUDS BECOMING BROKEN AT TIMES BUT LIKELY STAYING ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS WITH WINDS AOB 12 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. LATE TONIGHT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WORKING
TOWARD KLBB. WITH BETTER CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING ANY PRECIP MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FCST AREA...PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THIS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR EL PASO THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PHASING
WITH A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING NWD FROM THE TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE BEING EJECTED FROM THE TROUGH OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS THAT COULD ADD A LITTLE BIT MORE LIFT. PREVIOUS FCST STILL
LOOKS VALID WITH 30 PCT SW TAPERING LOWER MOVING NORTH AND EAST
FROM THERE. RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO PICK UP A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS
THE PHASING OF THE TWO TROUGHS TAKES PLACE AND ADVANCES TO THE
EAST...AND WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT ALTHOUGH MAIN SHOW WILL BE
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS A LITTLE LARGER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY SO FOG LOOKING LESS LIKELY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. AS
FOR TEMPS...WILL BE HARD TO ARGUE WITH MOS FOR BOTH HIGHS TODAY AND
LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE UA LOW PROGRESSING NEWRD FROM NW OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS SW NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...IS ANTICIPATED TO MERGE WITH AN TROUGH
THAT WILL EJECT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SAID DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A
CONTINUAL TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CWA
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST...STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND COMING TO AN END LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING /WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING/. WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00-1.50 INCHES TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN...LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME.
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF THE
NON-SEVERE VARIETY. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING BELOW NORM TOMORROW /60S AND 70S/.

THEREAFTER...THE UA TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WHILST UA RIDGING
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ANTICIPATED BY
SATURDAY. THE UA RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE FA BY SUNDAY
COURTESY OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS /PER THE GFS/ BUT
THAT IS DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE /ECMWF MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM
NORTH/. IN EITHER CASE...DECLINING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY POINTS TO TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
PROVES TO BE TRUE /WETTER GFS VERSUS THE DRYER ECMWF/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  52  69  51  77 /  20  30  40  20  10
TULIA         76  53  70  52  77 /  10  10  60  20  10
PLAINVIEW     75  53  68  52  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
LEVELLAND     74  56  68  54  76 /  20  30  60  20  10
LUBBOCK       75  56  68  54  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
DENVER CITY   72  57  69  54  77 /  30  40  60  20  10
BROWNFIELD    74  56  69  55  76 /  20  40  60  20  10
CHILDRESS     83  55  75  55  81 /  10  10  60  40  20
SPUR          78  56  71  56  79 /  10  10  70  30  20
ASPERMONT     81  56  76  57  81 /  10  10  70  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 211119
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CLOUDS BECOMING BROKEN AT TIMES BUT LIKELY STAYING ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS WITH WINDS AOB 12 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. LATE TONIGHT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WORKING
TOWARD KLBB. WITH BETTER CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING ANY PRECIP MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FCST AREA...PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THIS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR EL PASO THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PHASING
WITH A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING NWD FROM THE TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE BEING EJECTED FROM THE TROUGH OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS THAT COULD ADD A LITTLE BIT MORE LIFT. PREVIOUS FCST STILL
LOOKS VALID WITH 30 PCT SW TAPERING LOWER MOVING NORTH AND EAST
FROM THERE. RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO PICK UP A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS
THE PHASING OF THE TWO TROUGHS TAKES PLACE AND ADVANCES TO THE
EAST...AND WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT ALTHOUGH MAIN SHOW WILL BE
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS A LITTLE LARGER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY SO FOG LOOKING LESS LIKELY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. AS
FOR TEMPS...WILL BE HARD TO ARGUE WITH MOS FOR BOTH HIGHS TODAY AND
LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE UA LOW PROGRESSING NEWRD FROM NW OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS SW NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...IS ANTICIPATED TO MERGE WITH AN TROUGH
THAT WILL EJECT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SAID DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A
CONTINUAL TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CWA
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST...STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND COMING TO AN END LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING /WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING/. WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00-1.50 INCHES TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN...LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME.
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF THE
NON-SEVERE VARIETY. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING BELOW NORM TOMORROW /60S AND 70S/.

THEREAFTER...THE UA TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WHILST UA RIDGING
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ANTICIPATED BY
SATURDAY. THE UA RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE FA BY SUNDAY
COURTESY OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS /PER THE GFS/ BUT
THAT IS DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE /ECMWF MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM
NORTH/. IN EITHER CASE...DECLINING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY POINTS TO TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
PROVES TO BE TRUE /WETTER GFS VERSUS THE DRYER ECMWF/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  52  69  51  77 /  20  30  40  20  10
TULIA         76  53  70  52  77 /  10  10  60  20  10
PLAINVIEW     75  53  68  52  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
LEVELLAND     74  56  68  54  76 /  20  30  60  20  10
LUBBOCK       75  56  68  54  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
DENVER CITY   72  57  69  54  77 /  30  40  60  20  10
BROWNFIELD    74  56  69  55  76 /  20  40  60  20  10
CHILDRESS     83  55  75  55  81 /  10  10  60  40  20
SPUR          78  56  71  56  79 /  10  10  70  30  20
ASPERMONT     81  56  76  57  81 /  10  10  70  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29/07






000
FXUS64 KFWD 211119
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH DRAWS
NEARER...OTHERWISE OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY QUIET.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE WINDS
HAVE BECOME CALM AT MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY FOG.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN SUFFICIENT IN THE METROPLEX TO
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE
MENTION OF FOG AT DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE GKY WHERE A TEMPO FOR 5SM SHOULD SUFFICE. OTHERWISE KACT
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL 15Z. INCREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAFS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE...A LIGHT WIND AND A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME. HOWEVER...THE VISIBILITY AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 1 MILE SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SINCE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
LACKING...WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE
IT PASSES TO THE EAST IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  62  83  61  79 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              82  57  83  56  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             79  58  77  55  75 /   5   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            84  57  82  57  81 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          82  56  80  55  78 /   5   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  63  81  61  77 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           83  59  80  56  78 /   5   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         83  61  83  58  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            82  57  83  56  81 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  56  82  57  81 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 211119
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH DRAWS
NEARER...OTHERWISE OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY QUIET.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SURFACE WINDS
HAVE BECOME CALM AT MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S HAS LED TO SOME PATCHY FOG.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN SUFFICIENT IN THE METROPLEX TO
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT THE
MENTION OF FOG AT DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE GKY WHERE A TEMPO FOR 5SM SHOULD SUFFICE. OTHERWISE KACT
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL 15Z. INCREASING
CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE TAFS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE...A LIGHT WIND AND A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME. HOWEVER...THE VISIBILITY AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 1 MILE SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SINCE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
LACKING...WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE
IT PASSES TO THE EAST IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  62  83  61  79 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              82  57  83  56  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             79  58  77  55  75 /   5   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            84  57  82  57  81 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          82  56  80  55  78 /   5   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  63  81  61  77 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           83  59  80  56  78 /   5   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         83  61  83  58  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            82  57  83  56  81 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  56  82  57  81 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLUB 211119
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CLOUDS BECOMING BROKEN AT TIMES BUT LIKELY STAYING ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS WITH WINDS AOB 12 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. LATE TONIGHT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WORKING
TOWARD KLBB. WITH BETTER CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING ANY PRECIP MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FCST AREA...PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THIS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR EL PASO THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PHASING
WITH A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING NWD FROM THE TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE BEING EJECTED FROM THE TROUGH OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS THAT COULD ADD A LITTLE BIT MORE LIFT. PREVIOUS FCST STILL
LOOKS VALID WITH 30 PCT SW TAPERING LOWER MOVING NORTH AND EAST
FROM THERE. RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO PICK UP A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS
THE PHASING OF THE TWO TROUGHS TAKES PLACE AND ADVANCES TO THE
EAST...AND WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT ALTHOUGH MAIN SHOW WILL BE
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS A LITTLE LARGER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY SO FOG LOOKING LESS LIKELY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. AS
FOR TEMPS...WILL BE HARD TO ARGUE WITH MOS FOR BOTH HIGHS TODAY AND
LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE UA LOW PROGRESSING NEWRD FROM NW OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS SW NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...IS ANTICIPATED TO MERGE WITH AN TROUGH
THAT WILL EJECT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SAID DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A
CONTINUAL TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CWA
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST...STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND COMING TO AN END LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING /WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING/. WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00-1.50 INCHES TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN...LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME.
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF THE
NON-SEVERE VARIETY. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING BELOW NORM TOMORROW /60S AND 70S/.

THEREAFTER...THE UA TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WHILST UA RIDGING
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ANTICIPATED BY
SATURDAY. THE UA RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE FA BY SUNDAY
COURTESY OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS /PER THE GFS/ BUT
THAT IS DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE /ECMWF MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM
NORTH/. IN EITHER CASE...DECLINING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY POINTS TO TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
PROVES TO BE TRUE /WETTER GFS VERSUS THE DRYER ECMWF/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  52  69  51  77 /  20  30  40  20  10
TULIA         76  53  70  52  77 /  10  10  60  20  10
PLAINVIEW     75  53  68  52  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
LEVELLAND     74  56  68  54  76 /  20  30  60  20  10
LUBBOCK       75  56  68  54  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
DENVER CITY   72  57  69  54  77 /  30  40  60  20  10
BROWNFIELD    74  56  69  55  76 /  20  40  60  20  10
CHILDRESS     83  55  75  55  81 /  10  10  60  40  20
SPUR          78  56  71  56  79 /  10  10  70  30  20
ASPERMONT     81  56  76  57  81 /  10  10  70  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 211119
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CLOUDS BECOMING BROKEN AT TIMES BUT LIKELY STAYING ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS WITH WINDS AOB 12 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. LATE TONIGHT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WORKING
TOWARD KLBB. WITH BETTER CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING ANY PRECIP MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FCST AREA...PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THIS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR EL PASO THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PHASING
WITH A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING NWD FROM THE TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE BEING EJECTED FROM THE TROUGH OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS THAT COULD ADD A LITTLE BIT MORE LIFT. PREVIOUS FCST STILL
LOOKS VALID WITH 30 PCT SW TAPERING LOWER MOVING NORTH AND EAST
FROM THERE. RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO PICK UP A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS
THE PHASING OF THE TWO TROUGHS TAKES PLACE AND ADVANCES TO THE
EAST...AND WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT ALTHOUGH MAIN SHOW WILL BE
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS A LITTLE LARGER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY SO FOG LOOKING LESS LIKELY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. AS
FOR TEMPS...WILL BE HARD TO ARGUE WITH MOS FOR BOTH HIGHS TODAY AND
LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE UA LOW PROGRESSING NEWRD FROM NW OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS SW NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...IS ANTICIPATED TO MERGE WITH AN TROUGH
THAT WILL EJECT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SAID DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A
CONTINUAL TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CWA
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST...STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND COMING TO AN END LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING /WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING/. WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00-1.50 INCHES TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN...LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME.
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF THE
NON-SEVERE VARIETY. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING BELOW NORM TOMORROW /60S AND 70S/.

THEREAFTER...THE UA TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WHILST UA RIDGING
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ANTICIPATED BY
SATURDAY. THE UA RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE FA BY SUNDAY
COURTESY OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS /PER THE GFS/ BUT
THAT IS DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE /ECMWF MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM
NORTH/. IN EITHER CASE...DECLINING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY POINTS TO TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
PROVES TO BE TRUE /WETTER GFS VERSUS THE DRYER ECMWF/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  52  69  51  77 /  20  30  40  20  10
TULIA         76  53  70  52  77 /  10  10  60  20  10
PLAINVIEW     75  53  68  52  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
LEVELLAND     74  56  68  54  76 /  20  30  60  20  10
LUBBOCK       75  56  68  54  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
DENVER CITY   72  57  69  54  77 /  30  40  60  20  10
BROWNFIELD    74  56  69  55  76 /  20  40  60  20  10
CHILDRESS     83  55  75  55  81 /  10  10  60  40  20
SPUR          78  56  71  56  79 /  10  10  70  30  20
ASPERMONT     81  56  76  57  81 /  10  10  70  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 211119
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CLOUDS BECOMING BROKEN AT TIMES BUT LIKELY STAYING ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS WITH WINDS AOB 12 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. LATE TONIGHT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WORKING
TOWARD KLBB. WITH BETTER CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING ANY PRECIP MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FCST AREA...PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THIS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR EL PASO THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PHASING
WITH A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING NWD FROM THE TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE BEING EJECTED FROM THE TROUGH OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS THAT COULD ADD A LITTLE BIT MORE LIFT. PREVIOUS FCST STILL
LOOKS VALID WITH 30 PCT SW TAPERING LOWER MOVING NORTH AND EAST
FROM THERE. RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO PICK UP A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS
THE PHASING OF THE TWO TROUGHS TAKES PLACE AND ADVANCES TO THE
EAST...AND WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT ALTHOUGH MAIN SHOW WILL BE
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS A LITTLE LARGER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY SO FOG LOOKING LESS LIKELY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. AS
FOR TEMPS...WILL BE HARD TO ARGUE WITH MOS FOR BOTH HIGHS TODAY AND
LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE UA LOW PROGRESSING NEWRD FROM NW OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS SW NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...IS ANTICIPATED TO MERGE WITH AN TROUGH
THAT WILL EJECT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SAID DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A
CONTINUAL TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CWA
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST...STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND COMING TO AN END LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING /WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING/. WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00-1.50 INCHES TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN...LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME.
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF THE
NON-SEVERE VARIETY. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING BELOW NORM TOMORROW /60S AND 70S/.

THEREAFTER...THE UA TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WHILST UA RIDGING
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ANTICIPATED BY
SATURDAY. THE UA RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE FA BY SUNDAY
COURTESY OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS /PER THE GFS/ BUT
THAT IS DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE /ECMWF MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM
NORTH/. IN EITHER CASE...DECLINING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY POINTS TO TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
PROVES TO BE TRUE /WETTER GFS VERSUS THE DRYER ECMWF/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  52  69  51  77 /  20  30  40  20  10
TULIA         76  53  70  52  77 /  10  10  60  20  10
PLAINVIEW     75  53  68  52  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
LEVELLAND     74  56  68  54  76 /  20  30  60  20  10
LUBBOCK       75  56  68  54  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
DENVER CITY   72  57  69  54  77 /  30  40  60  20  10
BROWNFIELD    74  56  69  55  76 /  20  40  60  20  10
CHILDRESS     83  55  75  55  81 /  10  10  60  40  20
SPUR          78  56  71  56  79 /  10  10  70  30  20
ASPERMONT     81  56  76  57  81 /  10  10  70  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 211119
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CLOUDS BECOMING BROKEN AT TIMES BUT LIKELY STAYING ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS WITH WINDS AOB 12 KTS THROUGH THE DAY. LATE TONIGHT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WORKING
TOWARD KLBB. WITH BETTER CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING ANY PRECIP MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FCST AREA...PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THIS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR EL PASO THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PHASING
WITH A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING NWD FROM THE TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE BEING EJECTED FROM THE TROUGH OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS THAT COULD ADD A LITTLE BIT MORE LIFT. PREVIOUS FCST STILL
LOOKS VALID WITH 30 PCT SW TAPERING LOWER MOVING NORTH AND EAST
FROM THERE. RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO PICK UP A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS
THE PHASING OF THE TWO TROUGHS TAKES PLACE AND ADVANCES TO THE
EAST...AND WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT ALTHOUGH MAIN SHOW WILL BE
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS A LITTLE LARGER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY SO FOG LOOKING LESS LIKELY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. AS
FOR TEMPS...WILL BE HARD TO ARGUE WITH MOS FOR BOTH HIGHS TODAY AND
LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE UA LOW PROGRESSING NEWRD FROM NW OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS SW NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...IS ANTICIPATED TO MERGE WITH AN TROUGH
THAT WILL EJECT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SAID DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A
CONTINUAL TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CWA
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST...STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND COMING TO AN END LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING /WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING/. WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00-1.50 INCHES TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN...LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME.
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF THE
NON-SEVERE VARIETY. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING BELOW NORM TOMORROW /60S AND 70S/.

THEREAFTER...THE UA TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WHILST UA RIDGING
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ANTICIPATED BY
SATURDAY. THE UA RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE FA BY SUNDAY
COURTESY OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS /PER THE GFS/ BUT
THAT IS DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE /ECMWF MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM
NORTH/. IN EITHER CASE...DECLINING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY POINTS TO TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
PROVES TO BE TRUE /WETTER GFS VERSUS THE DRYER ECMWF/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  52  69  51  77 /  20  30  40  20  10
TULIA         76  53  70  52  77 /  10  10  60  20  10
PLAINVIEW     75  53  68  52  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
LEVELLAND     74  56  68  54  76 /  20  30  60  20  10
LUBBOCK       75  56  68  54  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
DENVER CITY   72  57  69  54  77 /  30  40  60  20  10
BROWNFIELD    74  56  69  55  76 /  20  40  60  20  10
CHILDRESS     83  55  75  55  81 /  10  10  60  40  20
SPUR          78  56  71  56  79 /  10  10  70  30  20
ASPERMONT     81  56  76  57  81 /  10  10  70  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29/07




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 211104
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will continue at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a weak upper low was situated over northern
Mexico and the Desert Southwest.  This upper low will open with the
resultant trough axis moving slowly eastward while still remaining
west of the forecast area. We will continue to lie in the eastern
periphery of the precipitation footprint with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the western Concho Valley and
Crockett county. Accompanying the upper trough axis will be an
increase in cloud cover resulting in afternoon highs a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, primarily over the western half of the area.
Looking for highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western CWA and
in the lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be mostly in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
The upper level trough will move slowly east across the Plains
Wednesday and Wednesday night. We`ll see an increase in lift with
the upper trough as it moves across the area, which will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Models continue to show the best
coverage of precipitation across the western half of the
forecast area and have retained slight chance to chance POPs
primarily west of a Brownwood to Junction line. There could still
be some lingering light showers Thursday morning but the upper
trough axis will move east of the area by midday, with precipitation
ending. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees both Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid
and upper 50s.

Expect dry and warmer weather Friday through next weekend as an
upper level ridge moves across the area. We`ll see above normal
temperatures through the period with highs in the lower and middle
80s. The ECMWF and GFS show a cold front moving across the area
Monday night but differ with the upper pattern. The ECMWF shows a
much deeper trough with a closed upper low developing to our west on
Tuesday, then moving slowly east across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This solution would bring a better chance of rainfall to
the area but given the model differences, the forecast will remain
dry for now. We should, however, see cooler temperatures behind the
front for Tuesday, with highs near normal for this time of
year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  56  79  59  81 /   5   5  20  20  20
San Angelo  79  55  79  57  82 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  82  53  81  58  80 /  10   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24










000
FXUS64 KSJT 211104
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will continue at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a weak upper low was situated over northern
Mexico and the Desert Southwest.  This upper low will open with the
resultant trough axis moving slowly eastward while still remaining
west of the forecast area. We will continue to lie in the eastern
periphery of the precipitation footprint with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the western Concho Valley and
Crockett county. Accompanying the upper trough axis will be an
increase in cloud cover resulting in afternoon highs a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, primarily over the western half of the area.
Looking for highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western CWA and
in the lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be mostly in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
The upper level trough will move slowly east across the Plains
Wednesday and Wednesday night. We`ll see an increase in lift with
the upper trough as it moves across the area, which will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Models continue to show the best
coverage of precipitation across the western half of the
forecast area and have retained slight chance to chance POPs
primarily west of a Brownwood to Junction line. There could still
be some lingering light showers Thursday morning but the upper
trough axis will move east of the area by midday, with precipitation
ending. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees both Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid
and upper 50s.

Expect dry and warmer weather Friday through next weekend as an
upper level ridge moves across the area. We`ll see above normal
temperatures through the period with highs in the lower and middle
80s. The ECMWF and GFS show a cold front moving across the area
Monday night but differ with the upper pattern. The ECMWF shows a
much deeper trough with a closed upper low developing to our west on
Tuesday, then moving slowly east across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This solution would bring a better chance of rainfall to
the area but given the model differences, the forecast will remain
dry for now. We should, however, see cooler temperatures behind the
front for Tuesday, with highs near normal for this time of
year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  56  79  59  81 /   5   5  20  20  20
San Angelo  79  55  79  57  82 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  82  53  81  58  80 /  10   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24











000
FXUS64 KSJT 211104
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will continue at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a weak upper low was situated over northern
Mexico and the Desert Southwest.  This upper low will open with the
resultant trough axis moving slowly eastward while still remaining
west of the forecast area. We will continue to lie in the eastern
periphery of the precipitation footprint with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the western Concho Valley and
Crockett county. Accompanying the upper trough axis will be an
increase in cloud cover resulting in afternoon highs a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, primarily over the western half of the area.
Looking for highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western CWA and
in the lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be mostly in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
The upper level trough will move slowly east across the Plains
Wednesday and Wednesday night. We`ll see an increase in lift with
the upper trough as it moves across the area, which will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Models continue to show the best
coverage of precipitation across the western half of the
forecast area and have retained slight chance to chance POPs
primarily west of a Brownwood to Junction line. There could still
be some lingering light showers Thursday morning but the upper
trough axis will move east of the area by midday, with precipitation
ending. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees both Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid
and upper 50s.

Expect dry and warmer weather Friday through next weekend as an
upper level ridge moves across the area. We`ll see above normal
temperatures through the period with highs in the lower and middle
80s. The ECMWF and GFS show a cold front moving across the area
Monday night but differ with the upper pattern. The ECMWF shows a
much deeper trough with a closed upper low developing to our west on
Tuesday, then moving slowly east across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This solution would bring a better chance of rainfall to
the area but given the model differences, the forecast will remain
dry for now. We should, however, see cooler temperatures behind the
front for Tuesday, with highs near normal for this time of
year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  56  79  59  81 /   5   5  20  20  20
San Angelo  79  55  79  57  82 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  82  53  81  58  80 /  10   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24










000
FXUS64 KSJT 211104
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will continue at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a weak upper low was situated over northern
Mexico and the Desert Southwest.  This upper low will open with the
resultant trough axis moving slowly eastward while still remaining
west of the forecast area. We will continue to lie in the eastern
periphery of the precipitation footprint with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the western Concho Valley and
Crockett county. Accompanying the upper trough axis will be an
increase in cloud cover resulting in afternoon highs a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, primarily over the western half of the area.
Looking for highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western CWA and
in the lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be mostly in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
The upper level trough will move slowly east across the Plains
Wednesday and Wednesday night. We`ll see an increase in lift with
the upper trough as it moves across the area, which will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Models continue to show the best
coverage of precipitation across the western half of the
forecast area and have retained slight chance to chance POPs
primarily west of a Brownwood to Junction line. There could still
be some lingering light showers Thursday morning but the upper
trough axis will move east of the area by midday, with precipitation
ending. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees both Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid
and upper 50s.

Expect dry and warmer weather Friday through next weekend as an
upper level ridge moves across the area. We`ll see above normal
temperatures through the period with highs in the lower and middle
80s. The ECMWF and GFS show a cold front moving across the area
Monday night but differ with the upper pattern. The ECMWF shows a
much deeper trough with a closed upper low developing to our west on
Tuesday, then moving slowly east across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This solution would bring a better chance of rainfall to
the area but given the model differences, the forecast will remain
dry for now. We should, however, see cooler temperatures behind the
front for Tuesday, with highs near normal for this time of
year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  56  79  59  81 /   5   5  20  20  20
San Angelo  79  55  79  57  82 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  82  53  81  58  80 /  10   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24











000
FXUS64 KHGX 210943
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
443 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE OVERALL FCST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE MESO SCALE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL HELP TO KEEP
THE RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SE TX THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A WEAK S/WV APPROACHING FROM THE WNW TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT (EXCEPT FOR INCREASED MID/
HIGH CLOUDS) GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE. THIS MILD/DRY WX SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLOWLY CHANGE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS BY
SAT. HOWEVER THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH THERE ARE ALSO SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES
WITH EXTENDED PROGS WITH ECMWF MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DE-
VELOPMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW/TROF THAN THE GFS. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 8 KNOT RANGE.
45

&&

.MARINE...
LOWER PRESSURES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA AND RIDGING OVER
TX/LA WILL KEEP THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCEC THIS MORNING AND
THEN RAISED IT AGAIN AFTER 3 PM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT IT
MAY NEED EXTENDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD
TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS RELAX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STAY ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  61  84  61  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  60  84  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  69  82  69  81 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 210936
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
336 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EAST AS A WESTERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DECENT MOISTURE MOISTURE REMAINS
TO FUEL MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT GENERALLY EAST OF DEMING.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES TODAY.  A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND PHASE IN WITH
THE OPEN TROUGH TO HELP GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH ABUNDANT SURFACE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...MORE LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND MOVE OVER THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES
TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW PATTERN TO OCCUR OVER THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST...THOUGH THE GFS MODEL HINTS AT A
POSSIBLE MODEST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AS THIS IS MORE LIKELY OUTCOME WITH THE PREVAILING WEST FLOW IN
PLACE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK IS LESS CLEAR. LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE
ON WEATHER SCENARIOS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
MODEL KEEPING A DRY WEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND THE ECMWF
MODEL INDICATING ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MIGHT DROP DOWN INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
SOLUTION AND KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF NEXT WEEK`S OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z - 22/12Z...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW. AREAS OF
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF KDMN THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. VSBY WILL BE PERIODICALLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 3SM IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE CLOUD DECK WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5000 TO
6000 FEET AGL. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY EAST OF DEMING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN SOME STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE
MORNINGS WITH POOR VENTILATION RATES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AND INTO
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  55  75  54  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  52  72  51  76 /  50  30  30  10   0
LAS CRUCES              71  52  71  51  77 /  30  30  20   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              71  51  71  49  77 /  30  30  20  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              57  39  58  37  63 /  40  40  30  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  53  71  52  76 /  30  30  20   0   0
SILVER CITY             66  48  68  48  71 /  20  20  10   0   0
DEMING                  72  51  72  48  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
LORDSBURG               72  52  74  50  79 /  20  20  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  56  74  55  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
DELL CITY               72  48  73  45  76 /  50  30  30  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            74  55  77  54  80 /  40  30  30  10   0
LOMA LINDA              67  51  68  52  73 /  30  30  30  10   0
FABENS                  75  52  77  50  80 /  30  30  20  10   0
SANTA TERESA            72  53  72  53  78 /  30  30  20   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  55  70  54  76 /  30  30  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           71  45  70  44  77 /  30  30  20   0   0
HATCH                   71  48  70  48  78 /  30  30  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                72  55  73  52  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
OROGRANDE               72  54  72  53  76 /  30  30  20  10   0
MAYHILL                 61  44  64  44  68 /  40  40  30  10   0
MESCALERO               62  40  63  38  68 /  40  40  30  10   0
TIMBERON                61  41  63  40  68 /  40  40  30  10   0
WINSTON                 65  45  67  44  73 /  30  30  20   0   0
HILLSBORO               67  50  68  49  73 /  30  30  20   0   0
SPACEPORT               71  47  70  45  77 /  30  30  20   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  45  68  44  74 /  30  30  20   0   0
HURLEY                  68  50  70  49  73 /  20  20  10   0   0
CLIFF                   70  46  72  44  77 /  20  20  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              69  40  71  38  74 /  20  20  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 67  50  69  49  73 /  30  30  20   0   0
ANIMAS                  73  51  76  50  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 72  49  74  49  80 /  20  20  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  49  76  47  82 /  20  20  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              74  50  75  49  80 /  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 210936
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
336 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EAST AS A WESTERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DECENT MOISTURE MOISTURE REMAINS
TO FUEL MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT GENERALLY EAST OF DEMING.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES TODAY.  A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND PHASE IN WITH
THE OPEN TROUGH TO HELP GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH ABUNDANT SURFACE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...MORE LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND MOVE OVER THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES
TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW PATTERN TO OCCUR OVER THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST...THOUGH THE GFS MODEL HINTS AT A
POSSIBLE MODEST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AS THIS IS MORE LIKELY OUTCOME WITH THE PREVAILING WEST FLOW IN
PLACE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK IS LESS CLEAR. LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE
ON WEATHER SCENARIOS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
MODEL KEEPING A DRY WEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND THE ECMWF
MODEL INDICATING ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MIGHT DROP DOWN INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
SOLUTION AND KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF NEXT WEEK`S OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z - 22/12Z...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW. AREAS OF
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF KDMN THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. VSBY WILL BE PERIODICALLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 3SM IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE CLOUD DECK WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5000 TO
6000 FEET AGL. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY EAST OF DEMING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN SOME STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE
MORNINGS WITH POOR VENTILATION RATES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AND INTO
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  55  75  54  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  52  72  51  76 /  50  30  30  10   0
LAS CRUCES              71  52  71  51  77 /  30  30  20   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              71  51  71  49  77 /  30  30  20  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              57  39  58  37  63 /  40  40  30  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  53  71  52  76 /  30  30  20   0   0
SILVER CITY             66  48  68  48  71 /  20  20  10   0   0
DEMING                  72  51  72  48  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
LORDSBURG               72  52  74  50  79 /  20  20  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  56  74  55  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
DELL CITY               72  48  73  45  76 /  50  30  30  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            74  55  77  54  80 /  40  30  30  10   0
LOMA LINDA              67  51  68  52  73 /  30  30  30  10   0
FABENS                  75  52  77  50  80 /  30  30  20  10   0
SANTA TERESA            72  53  72  53  78 /  30  30  20   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  55  70  54  76 /  30  30  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           71  45  70  44  77 /  30  30  20   0   0
HATCH                   71  48  70  48  78 /  30  30  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                72  55  73  52  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
OROGRANDE               72  54  72  53  76 /  30  30  20  10   0
MAYHILL                 61  44  64  44  68 /  40  40  30  10   0
MESCALERO               62  40  63  38  68 /  40  40  30  10   0
TIMBERON                61  41  63  40  68 /  40  40  30  10   0
WINSTON                 65  45  67  44  73 /  30  30  20   0   0
HILLSBORO               67  50  68  49  73 /  30  30  20   0   0
SPACEPORT               71  47  70  45  77 /  30  30  20   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  45  68  44  74 /  30  30  20   0   0
HURLEY                  68  50  70  49  73 /  20  20  10   0   0
CLIFF                   70  46  72  44  77 /  20  20  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              69  40  71  38  74 /  20  20  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 67  50  69  49  73 /  30  30  20   0   0
ANIMAS                  73  51  76  50  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 72  49  74  49  80 /  20  20  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  49  76  47  82 /  20  20  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              74  50  75  49  80 /  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 210936
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
336 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EAST AS A WESTERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DECENT MOISTURE MOISTURE REMAINS
TO FUEL MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT GENERALLY EAST OF DEMING.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES TODAY.  A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND PHASE IN WITH
THE OPEN TROUGH TO HELP GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH ABUNDANT SURFACE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...MORE LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND MOVE OVER THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES
TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW PATTERN TO OCCUR OVER THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST...THOUGH THE GFS MODEL HINTS AT A
POSSIBLE MODEST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AS THIS IS MORE LIKELY OUTCOME WITH THE PREVAILING WEST FLOW IN
PLACE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK IS LESS CLEAR. LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE
ON WEATHER SCENARIOS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
MODEL KEEPING A DRY WEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND THE ECMWF
MODEL INDICATING ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MIGHT DROP DOWN INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
SOLUTION AND KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF NEXT WEEK`S OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z - 22/12Z...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW. AREAS OF
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF KDMN THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. VSBY WILL BE PERIODICALLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 3SM IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE CLOUD DECK WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5000 TO
6000 FEET AGL. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY EAST OF DEMING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN SOME STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE
MORNINGS WITH POOR VENTILATION RATES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AND INTO
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  55  75  54  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  52  72  51  76 /  50  30  30  10   0
LAS CRUCES              71  52  71  51  77 /  30  30  20   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              71  51  71  49  77 /  30  30  20  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              57  39  58  37  63 /  40  40  30  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  53  71  52  76 /  30  30  20   0   0
SILVER CITY             66  48  68  48  71 /  20  20  10   0   0
DEMING                  72  51  72  48  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
LORDSBURG               72  52  74  50  79 /  20  20  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  56  74  55  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
DELL CITY               72  48  73  45  76 /  50  30  30  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            74  55  77  54  80 /  40  30  30  10   0
LOMA LINDA              67  51  68  52  73 /  30  30  30  10   0
FABENS                  75  52  77  50  80 /  30  30  20  10   0
SANTA TERESA            72  53  72  53  78 /  30  30  20   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  55  70  54  76 /  30  30  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           71  45  70  44  77 /  30  30  20   0   0
HATCH                   71  48  70  48  78 /  30  30  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                72  55  73  52  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
OROGRANDE               72  54  72  53  76 /  30  30  20  10   0
MAYHILL                 61  44  64  44  68 /  40  40  30  10   0
MESCALERO               62  40  63  38  68 /  40  40  30  10   0
TIMBERON                61  41  63  40  68 /  40  40  30  10   0
WINSTON                 65  45  67  44  73 /  30  30  20   0   0
HILLSBORO               67  50  68  49  73 /  30  30  20   0   0
SPACEPORT               71  47  70  45  77 /  30  30  20   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  45  68  44  74 /  30  30  20   0   0
HURLEY                  68  50  70  49  73 /  20  20  10   0   0
CLIFF                   70  46  72  44  77 /  20  20  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              69  40  71  38  74 /  20  20  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 67  50  69  49  73 /  30  30  20   0   0
ANIMAS                  73  51  76  50  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 72  49  74  49  80 /  20  20  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  49  76  47  82 /  20  20  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              74  50  75  49  80 /  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 210936
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
336 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EAST AS A WESTERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DECENT MOISTURE MOISTURE REMAINS
TO FUEL MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT GENERALLY EAST OF DEMING.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES TODAY.  A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND PHASE IN WITH
THE OPEN TROUGH TO HELP GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH ABUNDANT SURFACE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...MORE LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND MOVE OVER THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES
TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW PATTERN TO OCCUR OVER THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST...THOUGH THE GFS MODEL HINTS AT A
POSSIBLE MODEST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AS THIS IS MORE LIKELY OUTCOME WITH THE PREVAILING WEST FLOW IN
PLACE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK IS LESS CLEAR. LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE
ON WEATHER SCENARIOS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
MODEL KEEPING A DRY WEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND THE ECMWF
MODEL INDICATING ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MIGHT DROP DOWN INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
SOLUTION AND KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF NEXT WEEK`S OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z - 22/12Z...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW. AREAS OF
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF KDMN THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. VSBY WILL BE PERIODICALLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 3SM IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE CLOUD DECK WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5000 TO
6000 FEET AGL. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY EAST OF DEMING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN SOME STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE
MORNINGS WITH POOR VENTILATION RATES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AND INTO
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  55  75  54  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  52  72  51  76 /  50  30  30  10   0
LAS CRUCES              71  52  71  51  77 /  30  30  20   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              71  51  71  49  77 /  30  30  20  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              57  39  58  37  63 /  40  40  30  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  53  71  52  76 /  30  30  20   0   0
SILVER CITY             66  48  68  48  71 /  20  20  10   0   0
DEMING                  72  51  72  48  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
LORDSBURG               72  52  74  50  79 /  20  20  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  56  74  55  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
DELL CITY               72  48  73  45  76 /  50  30  30  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            74  55  77  54  80 /  40  30  30  10   0
LOMA LINDA              67  51  68  52  73 /  30  30  30  10   0
FABENS                  75  52  77  50  80 /  30  30  20  10   0
SANTA TERESA            72  53  72  53  78 /  30  30  20   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  55  70  54  76 /  30  30  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           71  45  70  44  77 /  30  30  20   0   0
HATCH                   71  48  70  48  78 /  30  30  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                72  55  73  52  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
OROGRANDE               72  54  72  53  76 /  30  30  20  10   0
MAYHILL                 61  44  64  44  68 /  40  40  30  10   0
MESCALERO               62  40  63  38  68 /  40  40  30  10   0
TIMBERON                61  41  63  40  68 /  40  40  30  10   0
WINSTON                 65  45  67  44  73 /  30  30  20   0   0
HILLSBORO               67  50  68  49  73 /  30  30  20   0   0
SPACEPORT               71  47  70  45  77 /  30  30  20   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  45  68  44  74 /  30  30  20   0   0
HURLEY                  68  50  70  49  73 /  20  20  10   0   0
CLIFF                   70  46  72  44  77 /  20  20  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              69  40  71  38  74 /  20  20  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 67  50  69  49  73 /  30  30  20   0   0
ANIMAS                  73  51  76  50  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 72  49  74  49  80 /  20  20  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  49  76  47  82 /  20  20  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              74  50  75  49  80 /  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN





000
FXUS64 KBRO 210919
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
419 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
SPREADS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THE DAY...THIS MOISTURE AND
CONTINUOUS EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER INLAND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
INCREASING PWATS AND ENHANCING SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO
ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AS DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING NE. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW 70S EAST
OF HWY 281.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR INFILTRATING SOUTH INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL
BE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP DRIER AIR WILL MARCH DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE
INTO THE BRO CWFA...WHILE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES RE-
CENTERED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DRY WEATHER WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST...INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED A LITTLE
LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. THUS...THESE WERE RAISED A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE EASTERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTENT LOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN STEADILY IMPROVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE.
&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAYBE THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND INCREASED
DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE LOCAL BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS...AS WAVES OCCASIONALLY WASH UP TO THE DUNE LINE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  74  84  74 /  20  10  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          86  73  85  71 /  20  10  20   0
HARLINGEN            87  72  85  71 /  20  10  20   0
MCALLEN              87  71  86  71 /  20  10  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      87  69  86  70 /  20  10  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  77  84  75 /  20  10  20   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES-67
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
MESO/WX4PPT...BILLINGS-58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 210919
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
419 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
SPREADS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THE DAY...THIS MOISTURE AND
CONTINUOUS EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER INLAND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
INCREASING PWATS AND ENHANCING SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO
ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AS DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING NE. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW 70S EAST
OF HWY 281.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR INFILTRATING SOUTH INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL
BE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP DRIER AIR WILL MARCH DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE
INTO THE BRO CWFA...WHILE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES RE-
CENTERED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DRY WEATHER WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST...INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED A LITTLE
LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. THUS...THESE WERE RAISED A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE EASTERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTENT LOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN STEADILY IMPROVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE.
&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAYBE THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND INCREASED
DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE LOCAL BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS...AS WAVES OCCASIONALLY WASH UP TO THE DUNE LINE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  74  84  74 /  20  10  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          86  73  85  71 /  20  10  20   0
HARLINGEN            87  72  85  71 /  20  10  20   0
MCALLEN              87  71  86  71 /  20  10  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      87  69  86  70 /  20  10  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  77  84  75 /  20  10  20   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES-67
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
MESO/WX4PPT...BILLINGS-58





000
FXUS64 KSJT 210915
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
414 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a weak upper low was situated over northern
Mexico and the Desert Southwest.  This upper low will open with the
resultant trough axis moving slowly eastward while still remaining
west of the forecast area. We will continue to lie in the eastern
periphery of the precipitation footprint with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the western Concho Valley and
Crockett county. Accompanying the upper trough axis will be an
increase in cloud cover resulting in afternoon highs a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, primarily over the western half of the area.
Looking for highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western CWA and
in the lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be mostly in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
The upper level trough will move slowly east across the Plains
Wednesday and Wednesday night. We`ll see an increase in lift with
the upper trough as it moves across the area, which will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Models continue to show the best
coverage of precipitation across the western half of the
forecast area and have retained slight chance to chance POPs
primarily west of a Brownwood to Junction line. There could still
be some lingering light showers Thursday morning but the upper
trough axis will move east of the area by midday, with precipitation
ending. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees both Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid
and upper 50s.

Expect dry and warmer weather Friday through next weekend as an
upper level ridge moves across the area. We`ll see above normal
temperatures through the period with highs in the lower and middle
80s. The ECMWF and GFS show a cold front moving across the area
Monday night but differ with the upper pattern. The ECMWF shows a
much deeper trough with a closed upper low developing to our west on
Tuesday, then moving slowly east across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This solution would bring a better chance of rainfall to
the area but given the model differences, the forecast will remain
dry for now. We should, however, see cooler temperatures behind the
front for Tuesday, with highs near normal for this time of
year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  56  79  59  81 /   5   5  20  20  20
San Angelo  79  55  79  57  82 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  82  53  81  58  80 /  10   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24









000
FXUS64 KSJT 210915
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
414 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a weak upper low was situated over northern
Mexico and the Desert Southwest.  This upper low will open with the
resultant trough axis moving slowly eastward while still remaining
west of the forecast area. We will continue to lie in the eastern
periphery of the precipitation footprint with a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms over the western Concho Valley and
Crockett county. Accompanying the upper trough axis will be an
increase in cloud cover resulting in afternoon highs a few degrees
cooler than yesterday, primarily over the western half of the area.
Looking for highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western CWA and
in the lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be mostly in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
The upper level trough will move slowly east across the Plains
Wednesday and Wednesday night. We`ll see an increase in lift with
the upper trough as it moves across the area, which will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Models continue to show the best
coverage of precipitation across the western half of the
forecast area and have retained slight chance to chance POPs
primarily west of a Brownwood to Junction line. There could still
be some lingering light showers Thursday morning but the upper
trough axis will move east of the area by midday, with precipitation
ending. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees both Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows in the mid
and upper 50s.

Expect dry and warmer weather Friday through next weekend as an
upper level ridge moves across the area. We`ll see above normal
temperatures through the period with highs in the lower and middle
80s. The ECMWF and GFS show a cold front moving across the area
Monday night but differ with the upper pattern. The ECMWF shows a
much deeper trough with a closed upper low developing to our west on
Tuesday, then moving slowly east across the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This solution would bring a better chance of rainfall to
the area but given the model differences, the forecast will remain
dry for now. We should, however, see cooler temperatures behind the
front for Tuesday, with highs near normal for this time of
year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  56  79  59  81 /   5   5  20  20  20
San Angelo  79  55  79  57  82 /  10  10  20  20  20
Junction  82  53  81  58  80 /  10   5  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24








000
FXUS64 KCRP 210909
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
409 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
INDICATED AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS LOCATED FROM BAFFIN
BAY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THUS...ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THAT MANAGES TO OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. DEEPER MOISTURE VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS
TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL BE RATHER
LOW AND CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. WAS TEMPTED TO
REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER FOR TODAY...BUT MAINTAINED THEM DUE TO
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS. THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE LOCATED
ACROSS NE ZONES. DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE SOUTH
TONIGHT RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER MIN
TEMPS. MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...A WEAKENING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. BUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY
OVER THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THURSDAY AND FURTHER EASTWARD FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY THURSDAY AND BECOME WEAK BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
AND BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 210909
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
409 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
INDICATED AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WAS LOCATED FROM BAFFIN
BAY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THUS...ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THAT MANAGES TO OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. DEEPER MOISTURE VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS
TRIES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL BE RATHER
LOW AND CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. WAS TEMPTED TO
REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER FOR TODAY...BUT MAINTAINED THEM DUE TO
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SOME POOLING OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS. THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE LOCATED
ACROSS NE ZONES. DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE SOUTH
TONIGHT RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER MIN
TEMPS. MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...A WEAKENING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. BUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY
OVER THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THURSDAY AND FURTHER EASTWARD FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY THURSDAY AND BECOME WEAK BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
AND BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  69  86  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  60  88  60  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  68  88  68  86  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             87  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          85  68  86  69  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           88  65  88  65  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  68  87  66  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       84  71  85  70  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KAMA 210902
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IR/FOG PRODUCT SHOW AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FAR
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING.

AN AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS TODAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAVE LIMITED
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL RESULT IN MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TIMING AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS WITH A FOCUS FOR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ENDING
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW EVENING.

THEREAFTER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS IN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND RESULTS IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AREA WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE EMERGES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF APPROACHING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL/TROUGH PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AT LEAST PER THE GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE
CLOSED OFF WITH BETTER MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION MAINLY JUST AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                75  54  68  53  76 /  10  10  50  20   5
BEAVER OK                  77  55  72  52  78 /   5   5  40  30  10
BOISE CITY OK              75  50  70  47  76 /  10  10  30  10   5
BORGER TX                  78  57  69  55  78 /  10  10  50  30  10
BOYS RANCH TX              76  53  67  52  77 /  10  20  40  20   5
CANYON TX                  75  53  68  53  76 /  10  20  50  20  10
CLARENDON TX               78  54  70  53  78 /  10  10  60  30  10
DALHART TX                 74  51  68  48  77 /  10  20  40  20   5
GUYMON OK                  78  53  70  50  78 /   5  10  30  20   5
HEREFORD TX                74  52  67  52  75 /  10  20  40  20   5
LIPSCOMB TX                79  56  73  55  78 /   5   5  40  30  10
PAMPA TX                   76  53  69  52  77 /   5  10  50  30  10
SHAMROCK TX                80  54  71  54  79 /   5  10  50  30  10
WELLINGTON TX              81  57  72  57  80 /  10  10  50  30  10

&&


.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 210902
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
402 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IR/FOG PRODUCT SHOW AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND FAR
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. LOCALIZED ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING.

AN AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUDS TODAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAVE LIMITED
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL RESULT IN MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TIMING AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS WITH A FOCUS FOR BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ENDING
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW EVENING.

THEREAFTER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS IN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND RESULTS IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AREA WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE EMERGES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF APPROACHING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL/TROUGH PASSAGE ON
MONDAY...AT LEAST PER THE GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE
CLOSED OFF WITH BETTER MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION MAINLY JUST AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                75  54  68  53  76 /  10  10  50  20   5
BEAVER OK                  77  55  72  52  78 /   5   5  40  30  10
BOISE CITY OK              75  50  70  47  76 /  10  10  30  10   5
BORGER TX                  78  57  69  55  78 /  10  10  50  30  10
BOYS RANCH TX              76  53  67  52  77 /  10  20  40  20   5
CANYON TX                  75  53  68  53  76 /  10  20  50  20  10
CLARENDON TX               78  54  70  53  78 /  10  10  60  30  10
DALHART TX                 74  51  68  48  77 /  10  20  40  20   5
GUYMON OK                  78  53  70  50  78 /   5  10  30  20   5
HEREFORD TX                74  52  67  52  75 /  10  20  40  20   5
LIPSCOMB TX                79  56  73  55  78 /   5   5  40  30  10
PAMPA TX                   76  53  69  52  77 /   5  10  50  30  10
SHAMROCK TX                80  54  71  54  79 /   5  10  50  30  10
WELLINGTON TX              81  57  72  57  80 /  10  10  50  30  10

&&


.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMAF 210845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a negatively-tilted upper trough centered over far
West Texas that has been shearing out over the past 24 hours,
resulting in convection along and west of the Pecos.  This activity
is forecast to continue today and tonight, w/the focus shifting east
as the trough lifts NE.  Over the PacNW, a trough moving onshore is
forecast to quickly move inland today, and phase w/the trough
overhead overnight tonight, and shift the better rain chances east
of the Pecos Wednesday as large-scale ascent commences.  00Z KMAF
RAOB came in w/a PWAT just under an inch, w/models saturating the
column upwards to H5 by 12Z Wednesday, increasing PWATs to 1.25" or
more over most of the FA.  This is right at 2 STD DEVs above normal,
so heavy rainfall will be possible.  W/storm motions of around 10
kts, we`ll keep mention of this to the HWO.  Precip chances should
drop off Wed night W-E as the trough exits the area.  An upper ridge
then begins building in from the west, and will move east of the
region over the weekend, keeping the extended dry/

W/abundant cloud cover, columns moistening up, and sfc dewpoints
anchored in place, diurnal spreads on temps will be small, at least
in the short-term.  Therefore, we`ve generally stuck to the cooler
end of the highs, and warmer end of the lows.  For the extended,
upper ridging, buffer soundings, and H85 temp fields suggest leaning
toward the warmer GFS numbers over the ECMWF.

Beyond this forecast, the ECMWF brings an upper trough out of the
PacNW, separating it from the flow, closing it off, and digging it
to SE NM by 00Z Wednesday, whereas the GFS and DGEX favor zonal flow
aloft during this time.  Should the ECMWF pan out, this will be our
next shot at precip, and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  59  72  56  /  10  60  60  30
BIG SPRING TX              78  60  67  59  /  10  30  60  30
CARLSBAD NM                71  59  73  54  /  70  60  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  69  63  75  61  /  20  20  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  61  77  58  /  30  60  60  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  54  68  58  /  70  40  20  20
HOBBS NM                   73  58  70  54  /  10  40  30  20
MARFA TX                   68  51  72  48  /  70  60  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  59  71  56  /  10  60  70  30
ODESSA TX                  77  59  74  56  /  10  60  70  30
WINK TX                    76  60  77  56  /  30  50  60  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

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http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 210845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a negatively-tilted upper trough centered over far
West Texas that has been shearing out over the past 24 hours,
resulting in convection along and west of the Pecos.  This activity
is forecast to continue today and tonight, w/the focus shifting east
as the trough lifts NE.  Over the PacNW, a trough moving onshore is
forecast to quickly move inland today, and phase w/the trough
overhead overnight tonight, and shift the better rain chances east
of the Pecos Wednesday as large-scale ascent commences.  00Z KMAF
RAOB came in w/a PWAT just under an inch, w/models saturating the
column upwards to H5 by 12Z Wednesday, increasing PWATs to 1.25" or
more over most of the FA.  This is right at 2 STD DEVs above normal,
so heavy rainfall will be possible.  W/storm motions of around 10
kts, we`ll keep mention of this to the HWO.  Precip chances should
drop off Wed night W-E as the trough exits the area.  An upper ridge
then begins building in from the west, and will move east of the
region over the weekend, keeping the extended dry/

W/abundant cloud cover, columns moistening up, and sfc dewpoints
anchored in place, diurnal spreads on temps will be small, at least
in the short-term.  Therefore, we`ve generally stuck to the cooler
end of the highs, and warmer end of the lows.  For the extended,
upper ridging, buffer soundings, and H85 temp fields suggest leaning
toward the warmer GFS numbers over the ECMWF.

Beyond this forecast, the ECMWF brings an upper trough out of the
PacNW, separating it from the flow, closing it off, and digging it
to SE NM by 00Z Wednesday, whereas the GFS and DGEX favor zonal flow
aloft during this time.  Should the ECMWF pan out, this will be our
next shot at precip, and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  59  72  56  /  10  60  60  30
BIG SPRING TX              78  60  67  59  /  10  30  60  30
CARLSBAD NM                71  59  73  54  /  70  60  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  69  63  75  61  /  20  20  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  61  77  58  /  30  60  60  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  54  68  58  /  70  40  20  20
HOBBS NM                   73  58  70  54  /  10  40  30  20
MARFA TX                   68  51  72  48  /  70  60  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  59  71  56  /  10  60  70  30
ODESSA TX                  77  59  74  56  /  10  60  70  30
WINK TX                    76  60  77  56  /  30  50  60  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
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000
FXUS64 KEWX 210826
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
326 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NM/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AND WEAKEN
THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST TODAY...WITH THE MOIST AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. LOW POPS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE RIO
GRANDE COUNTIES AND ON WEDNESDAY TO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY.
HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND MODEST 70-80 KT UPPER LEVEL...SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAK WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WED NIGHT INTO THU. WHERE THE
MODELS DISAGREE IS WITH RESPECT TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS. GIVEN
THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TEND TO FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35 FOR NOW...WITH LOW POPS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE
MOISTURE IS BETTER. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HIGHS POSSIBLE THU.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THU NIGHT...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA FRI AND SAT...THEN
FLATTENING ON SUN...AND MOVING EAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS FRI THROUGH
SUN...AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  61  84  61  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  56  84  56  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  58  86  60  84 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  58  82  59  79 /  -   -   -   10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  64  81  65  81 /  30  20  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  58  83  59  80 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  55  85  59  82 /  -   -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  57  85  58  82 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  59  84  59  81 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  61  86  63  83 /  -   -   -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  86  62  83 /  -   -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KEWX 210826
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
326 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NM/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AND WEAKEN
THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST TODAY...WITH THE MOIST AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. LOW POPS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE RIO
GRANDE COUNTIES AND ON WEDNESDAY TO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY.
HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND MODEST 70-80 KT UPPER LEVEL...SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAK WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WED NIGHT INTO THU. WHERE THE
MODELS DISAGREE IS WITH RESPECT TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS. GIVEN
THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TEND TO FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35 FOR NOW...WITH LOW POPS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE
MOISTURE IS BETTER. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HIGHS POSSIBLE THU.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THU NIGHT...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA FRI AND SAT...THEN
FLATTENING ON SUN...AND MOVING EAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS FRI THROUGH
SUN...AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  61  84  61  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  56  84  56  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  58  86  60  84 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  58  82  59  79 /  -   -   -   10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  64  81  65  81 /  30  20  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  58  83  59  80 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  55  85  59  82 /  -   -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  57  85  58  82 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  59  84  59  81 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  61  86  63  83 /  -   -   -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  86  62  83 /  -   -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KEWX 210826
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
326 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NM/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AND WEAKEN
THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST TODAY...WITH THE MOIST AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. LOW POPS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE RIO
GRANDE COUNTIES AND ON WEDNESDAY TO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY.
HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND MODEST 70-80 KT UPPER LEVEL...SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAK WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WED NIGHT INTO THU. WHERE THE
MODELS DISAGREE IS WITH RESPECT TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS. GIVEN
THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TEND TO FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35 FOR NOW...WITH LOW POPS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE
MOISTURE IS BETTER. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HIGHS POSSIBLE THU.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THU NIGHT...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA FRI AND SAT...THEN
FLATTENING ON SUN...AND MOVING EAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS FRI THROUGH
SUN...AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  61  84  61  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  56  84  56  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  58  86  60  84 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  58  82  59  79 /  -   -   -   10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  64  81  65  81 /  30  20  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  58  83  59  80 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  55  85  59  82 /  -   -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  57  85  58  82 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  59  84  59  81 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  61  86  63  83 /  -   -   -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  86  62  83 /  -   -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KEWX 210826
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
326 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NM/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN AND WEAKEN
THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST TODAY...WITH THE MOIST AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. LOW POPS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE RIO
GRANDE COUNTIES AND ON WEDNESDAY TO WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY.
HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND MODEST 70-80 KT UPPER LEVEL...SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAK WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WED NIGHT INTO THU. WHERE THE
MODELS DISAGREE IS WITH RESPECT TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
FORCING...WITH THE ECMWF AND CMC MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS. GIVEN
THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TEND TO FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION ALONG AND
EAST OF I-35 FOR NOW...WITH LOW POPS FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WED NIGHT AND THU WHERE
MOISTURE IS BETTER. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HIGHS POSSIBLE THU.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THU NIGHT...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA FRI AND SAT...THEN
FLATTENING ON SUN...AND MOVING EAST MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS FRI THROUGH
SUN...AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  61  84  61  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  56  84  56  81 /  -   -   -   10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  58  86  60  84 /  -   -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  58  82  59  79 /  -   -   -   10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  64  81  65  81 /  30  20  10  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  58  83  59  80 /  -   -   -   10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  55  85  59  82 /  -   -   -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  57  85  58  82 /  -   -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  59  84  59  81 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  61  86  63  83 /  -   -   -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  86  62  83 /  -   -   -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KFWD 210815
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
315 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE...A LIGHT WIND AND A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY WILL RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS FOR A SHORT
TIME. HOWEVER...THE VISIBILITY AT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 1 MILE SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SINCE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
LACKING...WE WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT. THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WHILE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE
IT PASSES TO THE EAST IT WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND JUST SOME
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD COVER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT
ACT...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AT AFW AND GKY. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
AT KACT FROM 12-14Z WHERE PROBABILITY LOOKS HIGHEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  62  83  61  79 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              82  57  83  56  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             79  58  77  55  75 /   5   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            84  57  82  57  81 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          82  56  80  55  78 /   5   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            84  63  81  61  77 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           83  59  80  56  78 /   5   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         83  61  83  58  80 /   5   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            82  57  83  56  81 /   5   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  56  82  57  81 /   5   5  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79






000
FXUS64 KLUB 210756
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
256 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FCST AREA...PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THIS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR EL PASO THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PHASING
WITH A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING NWD FROM THE TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE BEING EJECTED FROM THE TROUGH OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS THAT COULD ADD A LITTLE BIT MORE LIFT. PREVIOUS FCST STILL
LOOKS VALID WITH 30 PCT SW TAPERING LOWER MOVING NORTH AND EAST
FROM THERE. RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO PICK UP A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS
THE PHASING OF THE TWO TROUGHS TAKES PLACE AND ADVANCES TO THE
EAST...AND WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT ALTHOUGH MAIN SHOW WILL BE
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS A LITTLE LARGER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY SO FOG LOOKING LESS LIKELY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. AS
FOR TEMPS...WILL BE HARD TO ARGUE WITH MOS FOR BOTH HIGHS TODAY AND
LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE UA LOW PROGRESSING NEWRD FROM NW OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS SW NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...IS ANTICIPATED TO MERGE WITH AN TROUGH
THAT WILL EJECT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SAID DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A
CONTINUAL TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CWA
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST...STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND COMING TO AN END LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING /WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING/. WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00-1.50 INCHES TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN...LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME.
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF THE
NON-SEVERE VARIETY. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING BELOW NORM TOMORROW /60S AND 70S/.

THEREAFTER...THE UA TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WHILST UA RIDGING
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ANTICIPATED BY
SATURDAY. THE UA RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE FA BY SUNDAY
COURTESY OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS /PER THE GFS/ BUT
THAT IS DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE /ECMWF MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM
NORTH/. IN EITHER CASE...DECLINING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY POINTS TO TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
PROVES TO BE TRUE /WETTER GFS VERSUS THE DRYER ECMWF/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  52  69  51  77 /  20  30  40  20  10
TULIA         76  53  70  52  77 /  10  10  60  20  10
PLAINVIEW     75  53  68  52  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
LEVELLAND     74  56  68  54  76 /  20  30  60  20  10
LUBBOCK       75  56  68  54  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
DENVER CITY   72  57  69  54  77 /  30  40  60  20  10
BROWNFIELD    74  56  69  55  76 /  20  40  60  20  10
CHILDRESS     83  55  75  55  81 /  10  10  60  40  20
SPUR          78  56  71  56  79 /  10  10  70  30  20
ASPERMONT     81  56  76  57  81 /  10  10  70  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 210756
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
256 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FCST AREA...PRIMARILY THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. THIS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR EL PASO THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PHASING
WITH A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME MODEST MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING NWD FROM THE TRANS PECOS AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO
SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE BEING EJECTED FROM THE TROUGH OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS THAT COULD ADD A LITTLE BIT MORE LIFT. PREVIOUS FCST STILL
LOOKS VALID WITH 30 PCT SW TAPERING LOWER MOVING NORTH AND EAST
FROM THERE. RAIN CHANCES LIKELY TO PICK UP A BIT LATE TONIGHT AS
THE PHASING OF THE TWO TROUGHS TAKES PLACE AND ADVANCES TO THE
EAST...AND WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT ALTHOUGH MAIN SHOW WILL BE
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS A LITTLE LARGER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY SO FOG LOOKING LESS LIKELY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. AS
FOR TEMPS...WILL BE HARD TO ARGUE WITH MOS FOR BOTH HIGHS TODAY AND
LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMMENCING TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE UA LOW PROGRESSING NEWRD FROM NW OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS SW NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...IS ANTICIPATED TO MERGE WITH AN TROUGH
THAT WILL EJECT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SAID DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH A
CONTINUAL TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CWA
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST...STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AND COMING TO AN END LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING /WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING/. WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00-1.50 INCHES TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN...LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE SAID TIME-FRAME.
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF THE
NON-SEVERE VARIETY. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ANTICIPATED RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DROPPING BELOW NORM TOMORROW /60S AND 70S/.

THEREAFTER...THE UA TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION WHILST UA RIDGING
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ANTICIPATED BY
SATURDAY. THE UA RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED EAST OF THE FA BY SUNDAY
COURTESY OF A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS /PER THE GFS/ BUT
THAT IS DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE /ECMWF MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM
NORTH/. IN EITHER CASE...DECLINING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY POINTS TO TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEING DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL
PROVES TO BE TRUE /WETTER GFS VERSUS THE DRYER ECMWF/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  52  69  51  77 /  20  30  40  20  10
TULIA         76  53  70  52  77 /  10  10  60  20  10
PLAINVIEW     75  53  68  52  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
LEVELLAND     74  56  68  54  76 /  20  30  60  20  10
LUBBOCK       75  56  68  54  76 /  10  20  60  20  10
DENVER CITY   72  57  69  54  77 /  30  40  60  20  10
BROWNFIELD    74  56  69  55  76 /  20  40  60  20  10
CHILDRESS     83  55  75  55  81 /  10  10  60  40  20
SPUR          78  56  71  56  79 /  10  10  70  30  20
ASPERMONT     81  56  76  57  81 /  10  10  70  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29






000
FXUS64 KBRO 210552
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1252 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AS GULF MOISTURE
SURGES INLAND WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST
BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO THE TERMINALS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER TO MVFR IN
THE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY AROUND SUNRISE. THE EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME MODERATE WITH BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WANING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN
01-03Z. AS THE CONVECTION ENDS CUMULUS TO TEMPORARILY DISSIPATE AS
WELL HOWEVER WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF OF MOISTURE WITH A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND PERIODIC SCT TO POSSIBLE BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER APPROACHING MVFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY WHICH MIGHT BE MENTIONED IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10 TO 14 KNOTS TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.

EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.  /55/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.

EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK.  WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS.  LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.  STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK.  ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.  STAY TUNED.

ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.  RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT.  IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL.  /55/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA.  SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  /53/

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66







000
FXUS64 KBRO 210552
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1252 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AS GULF MOISTURE
SURGES INLAND WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST
BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO THE TERMINALS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER TO MVFR IN
THE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY AROUND SUNRISE. THE EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME MODERATE WITH BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WANING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN
01-03Z. AS THE CONVECTION ENDS CUMULUS TO TEMPORARILY DISSIPATE AS
WELL HOWEVER WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF OF MOISTURE WITH A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND PERIODIC SCT TO POSSIBLE BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER APPROACHING MVFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY WHICH MIGHT BE MENTIONED IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10 TO 14 KNOTS TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.

EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.  /55/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.

EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK.  WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS.  LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.  STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK.  ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.  STAY TUNED.

ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.  RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT.  IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL.  /55/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA.  SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  /53/

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66






000
FXUS64 KMAF 210550
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1250 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Latest aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers are continuing to percolate along and west of a line from
roughly Ft. Stockton northward to Hobbs tonight, and while
coverage further north has decreased, continued development is
observed in Presidio and Jeff Davis counties. Have maintained
mention of -SHRA late tonight and Tuesday at area terminals, with
the exception of KMAF. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected by
daybreak, with transient IFR possible with stronger showers.
Patchy fog has also begun to develop, and while visibilities
should largely remain MVFR, KPEQ has the best chance for IFR/LIFR
conditions, mainly near/just prior to daybreak.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Satellite and 12Z RAOB data place an upper low SW of El Paso City
with some minor lead shrtwv energy kicking out into the Trans
Pecos. Hier PW values ridge nwd thru the Trans Pecos from the
Lower Rio Grande Valley, and local heavy rain is possible. Mid
level theta-e ridge does have trouble moving e and for today/this
evening best PoPs will remain across wrn 1/2 of CWFA. However
there`s a substantial amount of TCU developing across the area
currently, including the PB and in the near term there is an
increasing chance of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise light precip will be
possible just e of the Pecos River tonight as dampening shrtwv
trof/s come out. The upper low will be weakening/filling as it
slowly moves e Tue. This will help set-up the axis of the hier PWs
farther e, including across the PB. Model consensus including HPC
QPF is again supporting best PoPs to be to the w extending from
the Davis Mtns into the wrn PB, possibly central PB. Current grids
reflect this pretty well and will make only minor adjustments.
Finally Wed this slow moving trof axis will be farther e into the
PB and this actually may be the day with the best chance of rain
with NAM12 bringing out a well defined maxima of lift in mid
levels. Current PoPs are mostly around 40% and will opt to
increase closer to 50-60%. Thereafter pattern transitions to
ridging aloft Thur-Sat, so above normal temperatures will return.
A dry cold front will possible by next Monday, thus cooler, but
moreso for areas n of I-20.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210550
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1250 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Latest aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers are continuing to percolate along and west of a line from
roughly Ft. Stockton northward to Hobbs tonight, and while
coverage further north has decreased, continued development is
observed in Presidio and Jeff Davis counties. Have maintained
mention of -SHRA late tonight and Tuesday at area terminals, with
the exception of KMAF. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected by
daybreak, with transient IFR possible with stronger showers.
Patchy fog has also begun to develop, and while visibilities
should largely remain MVFR, KPEQ has the best chance for IFR/LIFR
conditions, mainly near/just prior to daybreak.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Satellite and 12Z RAOB data place an upper low SW of El Paso City
with some minor lead shrtwv energy kicking out into the Trans
Pecos. Hier PW values ridge nwd thru the Trans Pecos from the
Lower Rio Grande Valley, and local heavy rain is possible. Mid
level theta-e ridge does have trouble moving e and for today/this
evening best PoPs will remain across wrn 1/2 of CWFA. However
there`s a substantial amount of TCU developing across the area
currently, including the PB and in the near term there is an
increasing chance of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise light precip will be
possible just e of the Pecos River tonight as dampening shrtwv
trof/s come out. The upper low will be weakening/filling as it
slowly moves e Tue. This will help set-up the axis of the hier PWs
farther e, including across the PB. Model consensus including HPC
QPF is again supporting best PoPs to be to the w extending from
the Davis Mtns into the wrn PB, possibly central PB. Current grids
reflect this pretty well and will make only minor adjustments.
Finally Wed this slow moving trof axis will be farther e into the
PB and this actually may be the day with the best chance of rain
with NAM12 bringing out a well defined maxima of lift in mid
levels. Current PoPs are mostly around 40% and will opt to
increase closer to 50-60%. Thereafter pattern transitions to
ridging aloft Thur-Sat, so above normal temperatures will return.
A dry cold front will possible by next Monday, thus cooler, but
moreso for areas n of I-20.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210550
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1250 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Latest aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers are continuing to percolate along and west of a line from
roughly Ft. Stockton northward to Hobbs tonight, and while
coverage further north has decreased, continued development is
observed in Presidio and Jeff Davis counties. Have maintained
mention of -SHRA late tonight and Tuesday at area terminals, with
the exception of KMAF. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected by
daybreak, with transient IFR possible with stronger showers.
Patchy fog has also begun to develop, and while visibilities
should largely remain MVFR, KPEQ has the best chance for IFR/LIFR
conditions, mainly near/just prior to daybreak.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Satellite and 12Z RAOB data place an upper low SW of El Paso City
with some minor lead shrtwv energy kicking out into the Trans
Pecos. Hier PW values ridge nwd thru the Trans Pecos from the
Lower Rio Grande Valley, and local heavy rain is possible. Mid
level theta-e ridge does have trouble moving e and for today/this
evening best PoPs will remain across wrn 1/2 of CWFA. However
there`s a substantial amount of TCU developing across the area
currently, including the PB and in the near term there is an
increasing chance of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise light precip will be
possible just e of the Pecos River tonight as dampening shrtwv
trof/s come out. The upper low will be weakening/filling as it
slowly moves e Tue. This will help set-up the axis of the hier PWs
farther e, including across the PB. Model consensus including HPC
QPF is again supporting best PoPs to be to the w extending from
the Davis Mtns into the wrn PB, possibly central PB. Current grids
reflect this pretty well and will make only minor adjustments.
Finally Wed this slow moving trof axis will be farther e into the
PB and this actually may be the day with the best chance of rain
with NAM12 bringing out a well defined maxima of lift in mid
levels. Current PoPs are mostly around 40% and will opt to
increase closer to 50-60%. Thereafter pattern transitions to
ridging aloft Thur-Sat, so above normal temperatures will return.
A dry cold front will possible by next Monday, thus cooler, but
moreso for areas n of I-20.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210550
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1250 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Latest aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers are continuing to percolate along and west of a line from
roughly Ft. Stockton northward to Hobbs tonight, and while
coverage further north has decreased, continued development is
observed in Presidio and Jeff Davis counties. Have maintained
mention of -SHRA late tonight and Tuesday at area terminals, with
the exception of KMAF. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected by
daybreak, with transient IFR possible with stronger showers.
Patchy fog has also begun to develop, and while visibilities
should largely remain MVFR, KPEQ has the best chance for IFR/LIFR
conditions, mainly near/just prior to daybreak.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Satellite and 12Z RAOB data place an upper low SW of El Paso City
with some minor lead shrtwv energy kicking out into the Trans
Pecos. Hier PW values ridge nwd thru the Trans Pecos from the
Lower Rio Grande Valley, and local heavy rain is possible. Mid
level theta-e ridge does have trouble moving e and for today/this
evening best PoPs will remain across wrn 1/2 of CWFA. However
there`s a substantial amount of TCU developing across the area
currently, including the PB and in the near term there is an
increasing chance of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise light precip will be
possible just e of the Pecos River tonight as dampening shrtwv
trof/s come out. The upper low will be weakening/filling as it
slowly moves e Tue. This will help set-up the axis of the hier PWs
farther e, including across the PB. Model consensus including HPC
QPF is again supporting best PoPs to be to the w extending from
the Davis Mtns into the wrn PB, possibly central PB. Current grids
reflect this pretty well and will make only minor adjustments.
Finally Wed this slow moving trof axis will be farther e into the
PB and this actually may be the day with the best chance of rain
with NAM12 bringing out a well defined maxima of lift in mid
levels. Current PoPs are mostly around 40% and will opt to
increase closer to 50-60%. Thereafter pattern transitions to
ridging aloft Thur-Sat, so above normal temperatures will return.
A dry cold front will possible by next Monday, thus cooler, but
moreso for areas n of I-20.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 210544
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1144 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND LEGACY TEXT PRODUCTS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CLEARLY EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST WEST OF EL PASO AT THE MOMENT. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS HAVE DECREASED MARKEDLY AND OVERALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
DIMINISHING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MCV PERSISTS. WATER VAPOR AND MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THIS IS IN AN AREA OF PVA AHEAD OF A VORT LOBE EAST
OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...MOVING TO THE NORTH. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...SO INCREASED THE POPS FOR
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY. COULD GET GRAZED BY A
SPOTTY SHOWER OVER EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL.

KEPT POPS AROUND 20 FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT 30S IN THE GILA AND
CATEGORICAL POPS IN HUDSPETH COUNTY...TAPERING DOWN TO 30S/40S
OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.

WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...COULD GET UPSLOPE
CLOUDS "RUNNING AGROUND" ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND MAIN RIDGE OF
THE SACRAMENTOS OVERNIGHT...SO INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG IN THAT AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL WILL LIFT OUT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWS BEHIND THIS
FIRST LOW AND WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THE LATTER PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS
THAT UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE BORDERLAND TO BRING US SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE NORMAL. WEST FLOW THEN STRAIGHTENS...COLLAPSING AND THEN
MOVING THE RIDGE EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FLOW WILL
REMAIN DRY HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE NM BOOTHEEL. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT OPENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY
TUESDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS...DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. DEEPER LAYERS
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT CURRENT PW`S OVER THE CWA
ARE AROUND .8" AND MODELS SHOWING THOSE PW`S REMAINING AROUND
8"-.9" ON TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SO SOME LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IT APPEARS THAT
AS GOOD AS THE HRRR PERFORMED LAST NIGHT...IT IS THAT BAD TODAY.
MODEL SHOWS STRONG CONVECTION TO HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER WEST TEXAS
AND MOVED NORTHWEST OVER EL PASO BY AROUND THIS TIME. WHILE SOME
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THIS AREA...NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE SAME
COVERAGE AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT OPEN WAVE IS NOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES IN BEHIND...OVER WESTERN ARIZONA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
MAY ENHANCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY END SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS
RIDGING AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WILL LEAVE
LOW POPS IN FAR EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
BY FRIDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST AND ERODES AWAY AS STRONG
WEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS BETTER TIMED THAN PREVIOUS
GFS RUNS SO SUNDAY MAY BECOME WINDIER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z - 21/00Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AREAS OF SHRA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF KDMN THROUGH THRU 12Z. VSBY WILL BE
PERIODICALLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 3SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE
CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE AND LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET AGL.
THROUGH 12Z. CIGS AT KTCS MAY BE LOWER OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MOSTLY EAST OF
DEMING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN SOME
STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE MORNINGS WITH POOR VENTILATION RATES
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AND INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 56  73  55  75  53 /  40  30  40  30   0
SIERRA BLANCA           50  70  50  72  49 /  70  40  40  40  20
LAS CRUCES              51  71  52  71  49 /  50  30  40  30   0
ALAMOGORDO              51  71  52  71  49 /  50  30  40  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              41  56  40  58  35 /  50  40  40  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   52  71  52  71  51 /  60  30  30  20   0
SILVER CITY             47  66  48  68  47 /  40  20  20  20   0
DEMING                  51  72  52  72  48 /  90  30  30  20   0
LORDSBURG               52  72  51  74  49 /  30  20  20  20   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      55  72  56  74  54 /  70  30  40  30   0
DELL CITY               49  72  48  73  45 /  60  40  40  40  20
FORT HANCOCK            54  74  53  77  52 /  60  40  40  30  20
LOMA LINDA              50  67  51  68  51 /  40  30  40  30  20
FABENS                  52  75  52  77  50 /  40  30  40  30   0
SANTA TERESA            53  72  53  72  51 /  90  30  40  30   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  71  55  70  52 /  40  30  40  30   0
JORNADA RANGE           50  71  47  70  44 /  50  30  40  30   0
HATCH                   49  71  49  70  47 /  50  30  30  30   0
COLUMBUS                53  72  54  73  51 /  90  30  30  20   0
OROGRANDE               52  72  53  72  51 /  40  30  40  30  20
MAYHILL                 43  61  44  64  42 /  50  40  40  40  20
MESCALERO               40  62  41  63  37 /  50  40  40  40  20
TIMBERON                40  61  42  63  38 /  50  40  40  40  20
WINSTON                 45  65  46  67  43 /  60  30  40  30   0
HILLSBORO               49  67  50  68  47 /  60  30  30  20   0
SPACEPORT               48  71  48  70  45 /  50  30  40  30   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  65  45  68  43 /  50  30  30  20   0
HURLEY                  48  68  49  70  49 /  50  20  30  20   0
CLIFF                   46  70  44  72  41 /  40  20  20  20   0
MULE CREEK              44  69  41  71  38 /  40  20  20  10   0
FAYWOOD                 49  67  50  69  48 /  60  30  30  20   0
ANIMAS                  51  73  51  76  49 /  40  20  20  20   0
HACHITA                 50  72  49  74  48 /  60  20  30  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          49  76  49  76  47 /  60  20  20  20   0
CLOVERDALE              49  74  51  75  48 /  40  20  20  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE - HARDIMAN
PREV - HEFNER/LUNDEEN





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 210544
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1144 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND LEGACY TEXT PRODUCTS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CLEARLY EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST WEST OF EL PASO AT THE MOMENT. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS HAVE DECREASED MARKEDLY AND OVERALL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
DIMINISHING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY WHERE AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE MCV PERSISTS. WATER VAPOR AND MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THIS IS IN AN AREA OF PVA AHEAD OF A VORT LOBE EAST
OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...MOVING TO THE NORTH. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...SO INCREASED THE POPS FOR
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY. COULD GET GRAZED BY A
SPOTTY SHOWER OVER EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL.

KEPT POPS AROUND 20 FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT 30S IN THE GILA AND
CATEGORICAL POPS IN HUDSPETH COUNTY...TAPERING DOWN TO 30S/40S
OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.

WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...COULD GET UPSLOPE
CLOUDS "RUNNING AGROUND" ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND MAIN RIDGE OF
THE SACRAMENTOS OVERNIGHT...SO INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG IN THAT AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL WILL LIFT OUT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWS BEHIND THIS
FIRST LOW AND WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THE LATTER PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS
THAT UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE BORDERLAND TO BRING US SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE NORMAL. WEST FLOW THEN STRAIGHTENS...COLLAPSING AND THEN
MOVING THE RIDGE EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FLOW WILL
REMAIN DRY HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE NM BOOTHEEL. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT OPENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY
TUESDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS...DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. DEEPER LAYERS
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT CURRENT PW`S OVER THE CWA
ARE AROUND .8" AND MODELS SHOWING THOSE PW`S REMAINING AROUND
8"-.9" ON TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SO SOME LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IT APPEARS THAT
AS GOOD AS THE HRRR PERFORMED LAST NIGHT...IT IS THAT BAD TODAY.
MODEL SHOWS STRONG CONVECTION TO HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER WEST TEXAS
AND MOVED NORTHWEST OVER EL PASO BY AROUND THIS TIME. WHILE SOME
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THIS AREA...NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE SAME
COVERAGE AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT OPEN WAVE IS NOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES IN BEHIND...OVER WESTERN ARIZONA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
MAY ENHANCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY END SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS
RIDGING AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WILL LEAVE
LOW POPS IN FAR EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
BY FRIDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST AND ERODES AWAY AS STRONG
WEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS BETTER TIMED THAN PREVIOUS
GFS RUNS SO SUNDAY MAY BECOME WINDIER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z - 21/00Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AREAS OF SHRA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF KDMN THROUGH THRU 12Z. VSBY WILL BE
PERIODICALLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 3SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE
CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE AND LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET AGL.
THROUGH 12Z. CIGS AT KTCS MAY BE LOWER OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MOSTLY EAST OF
DEMING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN SOME
STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE MORNINGS WITH POOR VENTILATION RATES
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AND INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 56  73  55  75  53 /  40  30  40  30   0
SIERRA BLANCA           50  70  50  72  49 /  70  40  40  40  20
LAS CRUCES              51  71  52  71  49 /  50  30  40  30   0
ALAMOGORDO              51  71  52  71  49 /  50  30  40  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              41  56  40  58  35 /  50  40  40  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   52  71  52  71  51 /  60  30  30  20   0
SILVER CITY             47  66  48  68  47 /  40  20  20  20   0
DEMING                  51  72  52  72  48 /  90  30  30  20   0
LORDSBURG               52  72  51  74  49 /  30  20  20  20   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      55  72  56  74  54 /  70  30  40  30   0
DELL CITY               49  72  48  73  45 /  60  40  40  40  20
FORT HANCOCK            54  74  53  77  52 /  60  40  40  30  20
LOMA LINDA              50  67  51  68  51 /  40  30  40  30  20
FABENS                  52  75  52  77  50 /  40  30  40  30   0
SANTA TERESA            53  72  53  72  51 /  90  30  40  30   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  71  55  70  52 /  40  30  40  30   0
JORNADA RANGE           50  71  47  70  44 /  50  30  40  30   0
HATCH                   49  71  49  70  47 /  50  30  30  30   0
COLUMBUS                53  72  54  73  51 /  90  30  30  20   0
OROGRANDE               52  72  53  72  51 /  40  30  40  30  20
MAYHILL                 43  61  44  64  42 /  50  40  40  40  20
MESCALERO               40  62  41  63  37 /  50  40  40  40  20
TIMBERON                40  61  42  63  38 /  50  40  40  40  20
WINSTON                 45  65  46  67  43 /  60  30  40  30   0
HILLSBORO               49  67  50  68  47 /  60  30  30  20   0
SPACEPORT               48  71  48  70  45 /  50  30  40  30   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  65  45  68  43 /  50  30  30  20   0
HURLEY                  48  68  49  70  49 /  50  20  30  20   0
CLIFF                   46  70  44  72  41 /  40  20  20  20   0
MULE CREEK              44  69  41  71  38 /  40  20  20  10   0
FAYWOOD                 49  67  50  69  48 /  60  30  30  20   0
ANIMAS                  51  73  51  76  49 /  40  20  20  20   0
HACHITA                 50  72  49  74  48 /  60  20  30  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          49  76  49  76  47 /  60  20  20  20   0
CLOVERDALE              49  74  51  75  48 /  40  20  20  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE - HARDIMAN
PREV - HEFNER/LUNDEEN






000
FXUS64 KCRP 210542 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...KCRP XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HRS WHILE FLIGHT
RULES AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI DETERIORATE AT TIMES. FEW PASSING LLVL
CLOUDS TONIGHT AT KCRP WITH MIFG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...BUT VFR
PREVAILING OVERALL. KLRD XPCTD TO HAVE A PERIOD OF LOW END MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MRNG WED /THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW TO MEDIUM/. KVCT MAY
EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES BUT DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION SHOULD PREVENT LOWER REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS. KALI XPCTD TO HAVE
POOREST FLIGHT RULES AS FOG DVLPS OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR TO EVEN
LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
BY MID/LATE MRNG TUES WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD. ISO SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MRNG AT
KCRP AND DRNG AFTN AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT ENERLY SFC WINDS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KTS FROM THE EAST DRNG DAYTIME TUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  20  10
VICTORIA          86  62  86  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  70  87  68  85  /  40  10  20  20  20
ALICE             85  68  87  65  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  72  85  69  83  /  30  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  66  86  63  85  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  84  71  83  /  40  20  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 210542 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...KCRP XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HRS WHILE FLIGHT
RULES AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI DETERIORATE AT TIMES. FEW PASSING LLVL
CLOUDS TONIGHT AT KCRP WITH MIFG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...BUT VFR
PREVAILING OVERALL. KLRD XPCTD TO HAVE A PERIOD OF LOW END MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MRNG WED /THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW TO MEDIUM/. KVCT MAY
EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES BUT DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION SHOULD PREVENT LOWER REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS. KALI XPCTD TO HAVE
POOREST FLIGHT RULES AS FOG DVLPS OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR TO EVEN
LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
BY MID/LATE MRNG TUES WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD. ISO SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MRNG AT
KCRP AND DRNG AFTN AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT ENERLY SFC WINDS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KTS FROM THE EAST DRNG DAYTIME TUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  20  10
VICTORIA          86  62  86  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  70  87  68  85  /  40  10  20  20  20
ALICE             85  68  87  65  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  72  85  69  83  /  30  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  66  86  63  85  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  84  71  83  /  40  20  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 210542
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...KCRP XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HRS WHILE FLIGHT
RULES AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI DETERIORATE AT TIMES. FEW PASSING LLVL
CLOUDS TONIGHT AT KCRP WITH MIFG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE...BUT VFR
PREVAILING OVERALL. KLRD XPCTD TO HAVE A PERIOD OF LOW END MVFR TO
HIGH END IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MRNG WED /THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW TO MEDIUM/. KVCT MAY
EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES BUT DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION SHOULD PREVENT LOWER REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS. KALI XPCTD TO HAVE
POOREST FLIGHT RULES AS FOG DVLPS OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR TO EVEN
LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
BY MID/LATE MRNG TUES WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD. ISO SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT THRU MID MRNG AT
KCRP AND DRNG AFTN AT KLRD...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT ENERLY SFC WINDS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KTS FROM THE EAST DRNG DAYTIME TUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  20  10
VICTORIA          86  62  86  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  70  87  68  85  /  40  10  20  20  20
ALICE             85  68  87  65  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  72  85  69  83  /  30  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  66  86  63  85  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  84  71  83  /  40  20  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KLUB 210448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
PROSPECTS OF CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT LOOK BETTER AS WEAK LIFT
OCCURS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OPENING UP OVER SRN NM. KEPT CONDITIONS
VFR THOUGH PATCHY MVFR CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE S WILL HELP MAINTAIN SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TUE
WITH ANY CIGS VFR. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE S DURING THE AFTN AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK GRID UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHCS REST OF THIS EVENING FROM
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SRN PNHDL WHERE REMNANT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED INTO WRN NM THIS EVENING
WITH MOISTURE PLUME ARCING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS W TX
INTO CENTRAL NM. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR W TX AND SE NM LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOBE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT
THOUGH WILL BE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE S AND ADVECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE S PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  10  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  10  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  10  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  20  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  10  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 210448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
PROSPECTS OF CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT LOOK BETTER AS WEAK LIFT
OCCURS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OPENING UP OVER SRN NM. KEPT CONDITIONS
VFR THOUGH PATCHY MVFR CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE S WILL HELP MAINTAIN SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TUE
WITH ANY CIGS VFR. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE S DURING THE AFTN AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK GRID UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHCS REST OF THIS EVENING FROM
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SRN PNHDL WHERE REMNANT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED INTO WRN NM THIS EVENING
WITH MOISTURE PLUME ARCING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS W TX
INTO CENTRAL NM. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR W TX AND SE NM LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOBE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT
THOUGH WILL BE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE S AND ADVECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE S PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  10  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  10  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  10  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  20  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  10  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 210448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
PROSPECTS OF CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT LOOK BETTER AS WEAK LIFT
OCCURS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OPENING UP OVER SRN NM. KEPT CONDITIONS
VFR THOUGH PATCHY MVFR CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE S WILL HELP MAINTAIN SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TUE
WITH ANY CIGS VFR. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE S DURING THE AFTN AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK GRID UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHCS REST OF THIS EVENING FROM
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SRN PNHDL WHERE REMNANT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED INTO WRN NM THIS EVENING
WITH MOISTURE PLUME ARCING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS W TX
INTO CENTRAL NM. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR W TX AND SE NM LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOBE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT
THOUGH WILL BE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE S AND ADVECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE S PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  10  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  10  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  10  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  20  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  10  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 210448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
PROSPECTS OF CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT LOOK BETTER AS WEAK LIFT
OCCURS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OPENING UP OVER SRN NM. KEPT CONDITIONS
VFR THOUGH PATCHY MVFR CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE S WILL HELP MAINTAIN SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TUE
WITH ANY CIGS VFR. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE S DURING THE AFTN AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK GRID UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHCS REST OF THIS EVENING FROM
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SRN PNHDL WHERE REMNANT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED INTO WRN NM THIS EVENING
WITH MOISTURE PLUME ARCING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS W TX
INTO CENTRAL NM. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR W TX AND SE NM LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOBE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT
THOUGH WILL BE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE S AND ADVECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE S PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  10  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  10  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  10  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  20  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  10  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 210448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
PROSPECTS OF CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT LOOK BETTER AS WEAK LIFT
OCCURS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OPENING UP OVER SRN NM. KEPT CONDITIONS
VFR THOUGH PATCHY MVFR CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE S WILL HELP MAINTAIN SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TUE
WITH ANY CIGS VFR. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE S DURING THE AFTN AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK GRID UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHCS REST OF THIS EVENING FROM
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SRN PNHDL WHERE REMNANT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED INTO WRN NM THIS EVENING
WITH MOISTURE PLUME ARCING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS W TX
INTO CENTRAL NM. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR W TX AND SE NM LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOBE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT
THOUGH WILL BE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE S AND ADVECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE S PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  10  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  10  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  10  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  20  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  10  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 210448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
PROSPECTS OF CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT LOOK BETTER AS WEAK LIFT
OCCURS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OPENING UP OVER SRN NM. KEPT CONDITIONS
VFR THOUGH PATCHY MVFR CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE S WILL HELP MAINTAIN SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TUE
WITH ANY CIGS VFR. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE S DURING THE AFTN AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK GRID UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHCS REST OF THIS EVENING FROM
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SRN PNHDL WHERE REMNANT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED INTO WRN NM THIS EVENING
WITH MOISTURE PLUME ARCING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS W TX
INTO CENTRAL NM. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR W TX AND SE NM LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOBE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT
THOUGH WILL BE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE S AND ADVECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE S PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  10  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  10  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  10  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  20  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  10  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 210448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
PROSPECTS OF CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT LOOK BETTER AS WEAK LIFT
OCCURS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OPENING UP OVER SRN NM. KEPT CONDITIONS
VFR THOUGH PATCHY MVFR CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE S WILL HELP MAINTAIN SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TUE
WITH ANY CIGS VFR. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE S DURING THE AFTN AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK GRID UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHCS REST OF THIS EVENING FROM
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SRN PNHDL WHERE REMNANT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED INTO WRN NM THIS EVENING
WITH MOISTURE PLUME ARCING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS W TX
INTO CENTRAL NM. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR W TX AND SE NM LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOBE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT
THOUGH WILL BE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE S AND ADVECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE S PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  10  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  10  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  10  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  20  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  10  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 210448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
PROSPECTS OF CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT LOOK BETTER AS WEAK LIFT
OCCURS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OPENING UP OVER SRN NM. KEPT CONDITIONS
VFR THOUGH PATCHY MVFR CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE S WILL HELP MAINTAIN SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TUE
WITH ANY CIGS VFR. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE S DURING THE AFTN AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK GRID UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHCS REST OF THIS EVENING FROM
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SRN PNHDL WHERE REMNANT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED INTO WRN NM THIS EVENING
WITH MOISTURE PLUME ARCING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS W TX
INTO CENTRAL NM. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR W TX AND SE NM LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOBE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT
THOUGH WILL BE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE S AND ADVECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE S PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  10  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  10  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  10  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  20  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  10  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 210448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
PROSPECTS OF CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT LOOK BETTER AS WEAK LIFT
OCCURS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OPENING UP OVER SRN NM. KEPT CONDITIONS
VFR THOUGH PATCHY MVFR CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE S WILL HELP MAINTAIN SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TUE
WITH ANY CIGS VFR. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE S DURING THE AFTN AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK GRID UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHCS REST OF THIS EVENING FROM
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SRN PNHDL WHERE REMNANT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED INTO WRN NM THIS EVENING
WITH MOISTURE PLUME ARCING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS W TX
INTO CENTRAL NM. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR W TX AND SE NM LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOBE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT
THOUGH WILL BE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE S AND ADVECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE S PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  10  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  10  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  10  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  20  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  10  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 210448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
PROSPECTS OF CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT LOOK BETTER AS WEAK LIFT
OCCURS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OPENING UP OVER SRN NM. KEPT CONDITIONS
VFR THOUGH PATCHY MVFR CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE S WILL HELP MAINTAIN SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TUE
WITH ANY CIGS VFR. WINDS WILL BE LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE S DURING THE AFTN AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK GRID UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHCS REST OF THIS EVENING FROM
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SRN PNHDL WHERE REMNANT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED INTO WRN NM THIS EVENING
WITH MOISTURE PLUME ARCING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS W TX
INTO CENTRAL NM. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR W TX AND SE NM LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOBE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT
THOUGH WILL BE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE S AND ADVECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE S PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  10  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  10  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  10  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  20  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  10  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 210442 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1142 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FROM SIX HOURS AGO.  QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
UNTIL AROUND 09Z TUESDAY...WHEN MVFR FOG BEGINS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA.  HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SAME AT
KDHT AND KGUY.  HAVE CONCERNS THAT IFR VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP AT
KGUY...BUT WILL AWAIT FOR DEVELOPMENTS TO UNFOLD AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
GRAPHICAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED...CONFINING ISOLATED EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ONLY...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LOSS OF INSOLATION.  NO OTHER
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.  UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THIS TIME SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  THUS...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCLUDED IN KAMA TAF.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY.

AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY.  POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
CERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...REACHING SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.  BASES OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED APART FROM
AFOREMENTIONED FOG AND STRATUS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/99






000
FXUS64 KAMA 210442 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1142 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FROM SIX HOURS AGO.  QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
UNTIL AROUND 09Z TUESDAY...WHEN MVFR FOG BEGINS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA.  HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SAME AT
KDHT AND KGUY.  HAVE CONCERNS THAT IFR VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP AT
KGUY...BUT WILL AWAIT FOR DEVELOPMENTS TO UNFOLD AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
GRAPHICAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED...CONFINING ISOLATED EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ONLY...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LOSS OF INSOLATION.  NO OTHER
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.  UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THIS TIME SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  THUS...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCLUDED IN KAMA TAF.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY.

AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY.  POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
CERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...REACHING SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.  BASES OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED APART FROM
AFOREMENTIONED FOG AND STRATUS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/99






000
FXUS64 KAMA 210442 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1142 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FROM SIX HOURS AGO.  QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
UNTIL AROUND 09Z TUESDAY...WHEN MVFR FOG BEGINS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA.  HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SAME AT
KDHT AND KGUY.  HAVE CONCERNS THAT IFR VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP AT
KGUY...BUT WILL AWAIT FOR DEVELOPMENTS TO UNFOLD AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
GRAPHICAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED...CONFINING ISOLATED EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ONLY...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LOSS OF INSOLATION.  NO OTHER
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.  UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THIS TIME SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  THUS...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCLUDED IN KAMA TAF.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY.

AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY.  POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
CERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...REACHING SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.  BASES OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED APART FROM
AFOREMENTIONED FOG AND STRATUS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/99






000
FXUS64 KAMA 210442 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1142 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FROM SIX HOURS AGO.  QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
UNTIL AROUND 09Z TUESDAY...WHEN MVFR FOG BEGINS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA.  HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SAME AT
KDHT AND KGUY.  HAVE CONCERNS THAT IFR VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP AT
KGUY...BUT WILL AWAIT FOR DEVELOPMENTS TO UNFOLD AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 847 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
GRAPHICAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED...CONFINING ISOLATED EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ONLY...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LOSS OF INSOLATION.  NO OTHER
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.  UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THIS TIME SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  THUS...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCLUDED IN KAMA TAF.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY.

AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY.  POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
CERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...REACHING SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.  BASES OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED APART FROM
AFOREMENTIONED FOG AND STRATUS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/99






000
FXUS64 KEWX 210436
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1136 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES AT THE PRESENT TIME.
WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AT KDRT AROUND SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE RIO-GRANDE
PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES SHOW VERY
LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MVFR AT THIS TIME.
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO
A TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NO POPS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE WEAKENING PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW SHOWN BY ALL MODELS TO REMAIN AN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MID INTO LATE WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS BACK EAST A
LITTLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS FORMER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM AND NO POPS
ARE MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANY
RAINS WILL EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...NO
POPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  62  84  62  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  80  57  83  57  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  60  86  58  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  59  83  60  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             80  62  85  59  85 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  60  85  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  64  86  61  85 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  63  86  59  85 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 210436
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1136 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES AT THE PRESENT TIME.
WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AT KDRT AROUND SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE RIO-GRANDE
PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES SHOW VERY
LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MVFR AT THIS TIME.
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO
A TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NO POPS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE WEAKENING PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW SHOWN BY ALL MODELS TO REMAIN AN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MID INTO LATE WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS BACK EAST A
LITTLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS FORMER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM AND NO POPS
ARE MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANY
RAINS WILL EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...NO
POPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  62  84  62  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  80  57  83  57  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  60  86  58  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  59  83  60  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             80  62  85  59  85 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  60  85  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  64  86  61  85 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  63  86  59  85 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17






000
FXUS64 KEWX 210436
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1136 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES AT THE PRESENT TIME.
WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AT KDRT AROUND SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE RIO-GRANDE
PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES SHOW VERY
LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MVFR AT THIS TIME.
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO
A TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NO POPS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE WEAKENING PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW SHOWN BY ALL MODELS TO REMAIN AN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MID INTO LATE WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS BACK EAST A
LITTLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS FORMER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM AND NO POPS
ARE MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANY
RAINS WILL EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...NO
POPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  62  84  62  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  80  57  83  57  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  60  86  58  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  59  83  60  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             80  62  85  59  85 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  60  85  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  64  86  61  85 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  63  86  59  85 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KEWX 210436
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1136 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES AT THE PRESENT TIME.
WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AT KDRT AROUND SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE RIO-GRANDE
PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES SHOW VERY
LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MVFR AT THIS TIME.
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO
A TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NO POPS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE WEAKENING PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW SHOWN BY ALL MODELS TO REMAIN AN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MID INTO LATE WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS BACK EAST A
LITTLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS FORMER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM AND NO POPS
ARE MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANY
RAINS WILL EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...NO
POPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  62  84  62  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  80  57  83  57  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  60  86  58  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  59  83  60  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             80  62  85  59  85 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  60  85  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  64  86  61  85 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  63  86  59  85 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17






000
FXUS64 KSJT 210433
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

At mid-afternoon, a weak upper low was over extreme northwestern
Chihuahua Province in Mexico, just south of the border with
Arizona and New Mexico. A minor lead shortwave ahead of the low
was entering southwestern Texas. This has generated widely
scattered showers across the Trans-Pecos and into our southwestern
counties, where the airmass is weakly unstable. The upper low will
open into a trough and lift northeast across West Texas during the
day Tuesday. The better rain chances with this system will remain
west of our area. We are carrying 20-30 PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms tonight across the area west of a Sterling City to
Sonora line. Have expanded the slight chance PoP north on Tuesday
to include Sterling County and the western parts of Fisher and
Nolan Counties. Across the rest of our area, the cumulus field
this afternoon will dissipate during the evening, followed by some
increase in high and middle cloud cover from the southwest
overnight into Tuesday. Have a potential for some patchy light fog
to develop across our east-central and southeastern counties by
early Tuesday morning, but this will depend on the extent of cloud
cover/duration of clearing. Little temperature change is expected
with overnight lows and afternoon highs through Tuesday.

19

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

The closed upper-level cyclone over the Desert Southwest will
slowly open up and lift northeast over the next 36 hours,
weakening as it moves into the Plains and is absorbed into the
northern stream. Weak ascent will be maintained through Tuesday
evening, but should wane as the trough continues to dampen.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
southwestern portion of the CWA early in the Tuesday night period.
However, with sunset around 7 PM, the earlier loss of surface
heating should preclude convection lasting past 03z.

By midweek, the potent trough currently moving ashore over the
Pacific Northwest will be moving east into the Plains. The model
consensus keeps the primary ascent focused over the northern and
central Plains, but we should see some synoptic scale lift
Wednesday into early Thursday as the southern extent of the trough
axis makes its way across the region. As was the case 24 hours
ago, the ECMWF and GEM are a bit more amplified with this trough,
whereas the GFS depicts a less pronounced wave. PoPs were
maintained in the 20-30% range Wednesday afternoon and night, with
the best rain chances across the western Concho Valley and Big
Country.

These same models are all producing light QPF across the area on
Thursday, but confidence is somewhat low giving the forecast
location of the departing trough. Slight chance PoPs were retained
areawide. The weak cold front that was advertised yesterday by the
ECMWF and GEM is no longer in their respective solutions, with
southerly flow maintained throughout the week. This will keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s both Wednesday and
Thursday, warming as we head into the weekend.

By Friday, we should be on the subsident side of the trough with a
transient mid-level ridge traversing the central CONUS. Expect
mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Friday through Sunday.
The medium range models differ in the evolution of the pattern by
early next week, but the consensus is that a trough will move
across the western states Sunday into Monday. Given the model
disparity, confidence is low regarding the forecast by Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  57  79  56  77  57 /   5   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  56  79  55  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  56  79  53  81  57 /   5  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KSJT 210433
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

At mid-afternoon, a weak upper low was over extreme northwestern
Chihuahua Province in Mexico, just south of the border with
Arizona and New Mexico. A minor lead shortwave ahead of the low
was entering southwestern Texas. This has generated widely
scattered showers across the Trans-Pecos and into our southwestern
counties, where the airmass is weakly unstable. The upper low will
open into a trough and lift northeast across West Texas during the
day Tuesday. The better rain chances with this system will remain
west of our area. We are carrying 20-30 PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms tonight across the area west of a Sterling City to
Sonora line. Have expanded the slight chance PoP north on Tuesday
to include Sterling County and the western parts of Fisher and
Nolan Counties. Across the rest of our area, the cumulus field
this afternoon will dissipate during the evening, followed by some
increase in high and middle cloud cover from the southwest
overnight into Tuesday. Have a potential for some patchy light fog
to develop across our east-central and southeastern counties by
early Tuesday morning, but this will depend on the extent of cloud
cover/duration of clearing. Little temperature change is expected
with overnight lows and afternoon highs through Tuesday.

19

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

The closed upper-level cyclone over the Desert Southwest will
slowly open up and lift northeast over the next 36 hours,
weakening as it moves into the Plains and is absorbed into the
northern stream. Weak ascent will be maintained through Tuesday
evening, but should wane as the trough continues to dampen.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
southwestern portion of the CWA early in the Tuesday night period.
However, with sunset around 7 PM, the earlier loss of surface
heating should preclude convection lasting past 03z.

By midweek, the potent trough currently moving ashore over the
Pacific Northwest will be moving east into the Plains. The model
consensus keeps the primary ascent focused over the northern and
central Plains, but we should see some synoptic scale lift
Wednesday into early Thursday as the southern extent of the trough
axis makes its way across the region. As was the case 24 hours
ago, the ECMWF and GEM are a bit more amplified with this trough,
whereas the GFS depicts a less pronounced wave. PoPs were
maintained in the 20-30% range Wednesday afternoon and night, with
the best rain chances across the western Concho Valley and Big
Country.

These same models are all producing light QPF across the area on
Thursday, but confidence is somewhat low giving the forecast
location of the departing trough. Slight chance PoPs were retained
areawide. The weak cold front that was advertised yesterday by the
ECMWF and GEM is no longer in their respective solutions, with
southerly flow maintained throughout the week. This will keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s both Wednesday and
Thursday, warming as we head into the weekend.

By Friday, we should be on the subsident side of the trough with a
transient mid-level ridge traversing the central CONUS. Expect
mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Friday through Sunday.
The medium range models differ in the evolution of the pattern by
early next week, but the consensus is that a trough will move
across the western states Sunday into Monday. Given the model
disparity, confidence is low regarding the forecast by Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  57  79  56  77  57 /   5   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  56  79  55  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  56  79  53  81  57 /   5  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








000
FXUS64 KSJT 210433
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

At mid-afternoon, a weak upper low was over extreme northwestern
Chihuahua Province in Mexico, just south of the border with
Arizona and New Mexico. A minor lead shortwave ahead of the low
was entering southwestern Texas. This has generated widely
scattered showers across the Trans-Pecos and into our southwestern
counties, where the airmass is weakly unstable. The upper low will
open into a trough and lift northeast across West Texas during the
day Tuesday. The better rain chances with this system will remain
west of our area. We are carrying 20-30 PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms tonight across the area west of a Sterling City to
Sonora line. Have expanded the slight chance PoP north on Tuesday
to include Sterling County and the western parts of Fisher and
Nolan Counties. Across the rest of our area, the cumulus field
this afternoon will dissipate during the evening, followed by some
increase in high and middle cloud cover from the southwest
overnight into Tuesday. Have a potential for some patchy light fog
to develop across our east-central and southeastern counties by
early Tuesday morning, but this will depend on the extent of cloud
cover/duration of clearing. Little temperature change is expected
with overnight lows and afternoon highs through Tuesday.

19

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

The closed upper-level cyclone over the Desert Southwest will
slowly open up and lift northeast over the next 36 hours,
weakening as it moves into the Plains and is absorbed into the
northern stream. Weak ascent will be maintained through Tuesday
evening, but should wane as the trough continues to dampen.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
southwestern portion of the CWA early in the Tuesday night period.
However, with sunset around 7 PM, the earlier loss of surface
heating should preclude convection lasting past 03z.

By midweek, the potent trough currently moving ashore over the
Pacific Northwest will be moving east into the Plains. The model
consensus keeps the primary ascent focused over the northern and
central Plains, but we should see some synoptic scale lift
Wednesday into early Thursday as the southern extent of the trough
axis makes its way across the region. As was the case 24 hours
ago, the ECMWF and GEM are a bit more amplified with this trough,
whereas the GFS depicts a less pronounced wave. PoPs were
maintained in the 20-30% range Wednesday afternoon and night, with
the best rain chances across the western Concho Valley and Big
Country.

These same models are all producing light QPF across the area on
Thursday, but confidence is somewhat low giving the forecast
location of the departing trough. Slight chance PoPs were retained
areawide. The weak cold front that was advertised yesterday by the
ECMWF and GEM is no longer in their respective solutions, with
southerly flow maintained throughout the week. This will keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s both Wednesday and
Thursday, warming as we head into the weekend.

By Friday, we should be on the subsident side of the trough with a
transient mid-level ridge traversing the central CONUS. Expect
mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Friday through Sunday.
The medium range models differ in the evolution of the pattern by
early next week, but the consensus is that a trough will move
across the western states Sunday into Monday. Given the model
disparity, confidence is low regarding the forecast by Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  57  79  56  77  57 /   5   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  56  79  55  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  56  79  53  81  57 /   5  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KSJT 210433
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1133 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

At mid-afternoon, a weak upper low was over extreme northwestern
Chihuahua Province in Mexico, just south of the border with
Arizona and New Mexico. A minor lead shortwave ahead of the low
was entering southwestern Texas. This has generated widely
scattered showers across the Trans-Pecos and into our southwestern
counties, where the airmass is weakly unstable. The upper low will
open into a trough and lift northeast across West Texas during the
day Tuesday. The better rain chances with this system will remain
west of our area. We are carrying 20-30 PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms tonight across the area west of a Sterling City to
Sonora line. Have expanded the slight chance PoP north on Tuesday
to include Sterling County and the western parts of Fisher and
Nolan Counties. Across the rest of our area, the cumulus field
this afternoon will dissipate during the evening, followed by some
increase in high and middle cloud cover from the southwest
overnight into Tuesday. Have a potential for some patchy light fog
to develop across our east-central and southeastern counties by
early Tuesday morning, but this will depend on the extent of cloud
cover/duration of clearing. Little temperature change is expected
with overnight lows and afternoon highs through Tuesday.

19

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

The closed upper-level cyclone over the Desert Southwest will
slowly open up and lift northeast over the next 36 hours,
weakening as it moves into the Plains and is absorbed into the
northern stream. Weak ascent will be maintained through Tuesday
evening, but should wane as the trough continues to dampen.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
southwestern portion of the CWA early in the Tuesday night period.
However, with sunset around 7 PM, the earlier loss of surface
heating should preclude convection lasting past 03z.

By midweek, the potent trough currently moving ashore over the
Pacific Northwest will be moving east into the Plains. The model
consensus keeps the primary ascent focused over the northern and
central Plains, but we should see some synoptic scale lift
Wednesday into early Thursday as the southern extent of the trough
axis makes its way across the region. As was the case 24 hours
ago, the ECMWF and GEM are a bit more amplified with this trough,
whereas the GFS depicts a less pronounced wave. PoPs were
maintained in the 20-30% range Wednesday afternoon and night, with
the best rain chances across the western Concho Valley and Big
Country.

These same models are all producing light QPF across the area on
Thursday, but confidence is somewhat low giving the forecast
location of the departing trough. Slight chance PoPs were retained
areawide. The weak cold front that was advertised yesterday by the
ECMWF and GEM is no longer in their respective solutions, with
southerly flow maintained throughout the week. This will keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s both Wednesday and
Thursday, warming as we head into the weekend.

By Friday, we should be on the subsident side of the trough with a
transient mid-level ridge traversing the central CONUS. Expect
mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Friday through Sunday.
The medium range models differ in the evolution of the pattern by
early next week, but the consensus is that a trough will move
across the western states Sunday into Monday. Given the model
disparity, confidence is low regarding the forecast by Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  57  79  56  77  57 /   5   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  56  79  55  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  56  79  53  81  57 /   5  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








000
FXUS64 KFWD 210432
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND JUST SOME
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD COVER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT
ACT...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AT AFW AND GKY. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
AT KACT FROM 12-14Z WHERE PROBABILITY LOOKS HIGHEST.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO RESIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE
CHURNING OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR
US...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS SETUP YIELDS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMING INTO THE 80S.

AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO SLIDES EASTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE
MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO YIELD ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS. HOWEVER... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PROVIDING MORE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER NORTH
TEXAS WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS...MOST DO SHOW SIGNS
OF SOME PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR OUR
RED RIVER COUNTIES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRIEFLY BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BRIEF ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB YET AGAIN INTO THE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON MONDAY. SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SO FAR OUT...HAVE ONLY PUT IN 20 POPS IN FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.   AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  63  78  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              58  81  61  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             56  81  58  77  54 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            58  81  60  79  59 /  10   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  59  79  56 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            62  82  63  79  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           58  81  60  78  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  82  60  78  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  81  60  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  82  58  80  59 /  10   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








000
FXUS64 KFWD 210432
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND JUST SOME
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD COVER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT
ACT...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AT AFW AND GKY. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
AT KACT FROM 12-14Z WHERE PROBABILITY LOOKS HIGHEST.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO RESIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE
CHURNING OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR
US...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS SETUP YIELDS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMING INTO THE 80S.

AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO SLIDES EASTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE
MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO YIELD ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS. HOWEVER... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PROVIDING MORE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER NORTH
TEXAS WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS...MOST DO SHOW SIGNS
OF SOME PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR OUR
RED RIVER COUNTIES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRIEFLY BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BRIEF ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB YET AGAIN INTO THE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON MONDAY. SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SO FAR OUT...HAVE ONLY PUT IN 20 POPS IN FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.   AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  63  78  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              58  81  61  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             56  81  58  77  54 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            58  81  60  79  59 /  10   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  59  79  56 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            62  82  63  79  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           58  81  60  78  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  82  60  78  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  81  60  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  82  58  80  59 /  10   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








000
FXUS64 KFWD 210432
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND JUST SOME
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD COVER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT
ACT...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AT AFW AND GKY. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
AT KACT FROM 12-14Z WHERE PROBABILITY LOOKS HIGHEST.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO RESIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE
CHURNING OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR
US...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS SETUP YIELDS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMING INTO THE 80S.

AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO SLIDES EASTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE
MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO YIELD ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS. HOWEVER... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PROVIDING MORE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER NORTH
TEXAS WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS...MOST DO SHOW SIGNS
OF SOME PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR OUR
RED RIVER COUNTIES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRIEFLY BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BRIEF ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB YET AGAIN INTO THE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON MONDAY. SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SO FAR OUT...HAVE ONLY PUT IN 20 POPS IN FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.   AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  63  78  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              58  81  61  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             56  81  58  77  54 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            58  81  60  79  59 /  10   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  59  79  56 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            62  82  63  79  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           58  81  60  78  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  82  60  78  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  81  60  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  82  58  80  59 /  10   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








000
FXUS64 KFWD 210432
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND JUST SOME
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD COVER. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT
ACT...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AT AFW AND GKY. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
AT KACT FROM 12-14Z WHERE PROBABILITY LOOKS HIGHEST.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO RESIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE
CHURNING OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR
US...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS SETUP YIELDS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMING INTO THE 80S.

AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO SLIDES EASTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE
MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO YIELD ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS. HOWEVER... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PROVIDING MORE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER NORTH
TEXAS WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS...MOST DO SHOW SIGNS
OF SOME PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR OUR
RED RIVER COUNTIES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRIEFLY BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BRIEF ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB YET AGAIN INTO THE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON MONDAY. SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SO FAR OUT...HAVE ONLY PUT IN 20 POPS IN FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.   AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  63  78  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              58  81  61  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             56  81  58  77  54 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            58  81  60  79  59 /  10   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  59  79  56 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            62  82  63  79  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           58  81  60  78  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  82  60  78  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            59  81  60  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  82  58  80  59 /  10   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /








000
FXUS64 KCRP 210252
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD TO LINE UP WITH
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN CHANCES OUT
WEST...MAINTAINED THEM NEAR THE COAST. PRODUCTS ARE OUT. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MARINE PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  10  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  10  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 210252 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD TO LINE UP WITH
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN CHANCES OUT
WEST...MAINTAINED THEM NEAR THE COAST. PRODUCTS ARE OUT. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MARINE PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  10  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  10  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 210252 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD TO LINE UP WITH
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN CHANCES OUT
WEST...MAINTAINED THEM NEAR THE COAST. PRODUCTS ARE OUT. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MARINE PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  10  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  10  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 210252
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD TO LINE UP WITH
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN CHANCES OUT
WEST...MAINTAINED THEM NEAR THE COAST. PRODUCTS ARE OUT. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MARINE PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  10  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  10  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 210252 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD TO LINE UP WITH
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN CHANCES OUT
WEST...MAINTAINED THEM NEAR THE COAST. PRODUCTS ARE OUT. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MARINE PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  10  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  10  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 210252 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD TO LINE UP WITH
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN CHANCES OUT
WEST...MAINTAINED THEM NEAR THE COAST. PRODUCTS ARE OUT. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MARINE PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  10  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  10  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 210252 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD TO LINE UP WITH
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN CHANCES OUT
WEST...MAINTAINED THEM NEAR THE COAST. PRODUCTS ARE OUT. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MARINE PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  10  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  10  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 210252 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST PERIOD TO LINE UP WITH
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED RAIN CHANCES OUT
WEST...MAINTAINED THEM NEAR THE COAST. PRODUCTS ARE OUT. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MARINE PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  10  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  10  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  10  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KHGX 210245
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED AN SCEC FOR THE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AT 930 PM THAT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OVER THE GULF WATERS OFFSHORE OF
MATAGORDA BAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE LA/AR
BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT.

TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY GRIDS.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR E WINDS WHICH WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. CIGS
SHOULD BE VFR AND WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MIFG. E WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW TO
8-10KTS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE
REGION THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK /18Z
GOES SOUNDER ESTIMATING 45 TO 50 KT WINDS/ UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE DEPARTS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM SPEEDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE
DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER LAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE RIDGE OVER
TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF NOW RESEMBLING THE GFS IN TERMS OF A
FASTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE TRACK AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF RAIN
CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST TX. AS OF RIGHT NOW...ALL THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS IT PASSES LATE
WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND. THERE/S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WHICH
DAY...SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...WILL BE WARMER. FOR NOW... WILL SIDE
WITH SUNDAY BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

THE BIGGEST FORECASTING CONCERN THIS WEEK CENTERS AROUND MARINE
IMPACTS FROM A DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA... EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS AND INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE THE MARINE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

14

MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT (HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA) IS
EXPECTED TO BRING STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS TO THE
AREA. CAUTION FLAGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BEGINNING EITHER
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...AND ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE COULD
ALSO BE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED RETURN TO THE AREA
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  84  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  84  61  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  70  80  69 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 210245
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED AN SCEC FOR THE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AT 930 PM THAT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OVER THE GULF WATERS OFFSHORE OF
MATAGORDA BAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE LA/AR
BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT.

TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY GRIDS.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR E WINDS WHICH WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. CIGS
SHOULD BE VFR AND WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MIFG. E WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW TO
8-10KTS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE
REGION THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK /18Z
GOES SOUNDER ESTIMATING 45 TO 50 KT WINDS/ UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE DEPARTS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM SPEEDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE
DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER LAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE RIDGE OVER
TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF NOW RESEMBLING THE GFS IN TERMS OF A
FASTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE TRACK AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF RAIN
CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST TX. AS OF RIGHT NOW...ALL THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS IT PASSES LATE
WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND. THERE/S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WHICH
DAY...SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...WILL BE WARMER. FOR NOW... WILL SIDE
WITH SUNDAY BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

THE BIGGEST FORECASTING CONCERN THIS WEEK CENTERS AROUND MARINE
IMPACTS FROM A DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA... EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS AND INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE THE MARINE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

14

MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT (HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA) IS
EXPECTED TO BRING STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS TO THE
AREA. CAUTION FLAGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BEGINNING EITHER
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...AND ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE COULD
ALSO BE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED RETURN TO THE AREA
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  84  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  84  61  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  70  80  69 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



000
FXUS64 KHGX 210245
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED AN SCEC FOR THE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AT 930 PM THAT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OVER THE GULF WATERS OFFSHORE OF
MATAGORDA BAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE LA/AR
BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT.

TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY GRIDS.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR E WINDS WHICH WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. CIGS
SHOULD BE VFR AND WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MIFG. E WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW TO
8-10KTS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE
REGION THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK /18Z
GOES SOUNDER ESTIMATING 45 TO 50 KT WINDS/ UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE DEPARTS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM SPEEDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE
DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER LAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE RIDGE OVER
TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF NOW RESEMBLING THE GFS IN TERMS OF A
FASTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE TRACK AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF RAIN
CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST TX. AS OF RIGHT NOW...ALL THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS IT PASSES LATE
WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND. THERE/S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WHICH
DAY...SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...WILL BE WARMER. FOR NOW... WILL SIDE
WITH SUNDAY BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

THE BIGGEST FORECASTING CONCERN THIS WEEK CENTERS AROUND MARINE
IMPACTS FROM A DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA... EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS AND INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE THE MARINE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

14

MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT (HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA) IS
EXPECTED TO BRING STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS TO THE
AREA. CAUTION FLAGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BEGINNING EITHER
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...AND ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE COULD
ALSO BE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED RETURN TO THE AREA
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  84  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  84  61  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  70  80  69 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



000
FXUS64 KHGX 210245
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED AN SCEC FOR THE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AT 930 PM THAT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OVER THE GULF WATERS OFFSHORE OF
MATAGORDA BAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE LA/AR
BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT.

TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY GRIDS.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR E WINDS WHICH WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. CIGS
SHOULD BE VFR AND WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MIFG. E WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW TO
8-10KTS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE
REGION THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK /18Z
GOES SOUNDER ESTIMATING 45 TO 50 KT WINDS/ UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE DEPARTS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM SPEEDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE
DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER LAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE RIDGE OVER
TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF NOW RESEMBLING THE GFS IN TERMS OF A
FASTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE TRACK AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF RAIN
CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST TX. AS OF RIGHT NOW...ALL THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS IT PASSES LATE
WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND. THERE/S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WHICH
DAY...SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...WILL BE WARMER. FOR NOW... WILL SIDE
WITH SUNDAY BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

THE BIGGEST FORECASTING CONCERN THIS WEEK CENTERS AROUND MARINE
IMPACTS FROM A DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA... EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS AND INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE THE MARINE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

14

MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT (HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA) IS
EXPECTED TO BRING STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS TO THE
AREA. CAUTION FLAGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BEGINNING EITHER
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...AND ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE COULD
ALSO BE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED RETURN TO THE AREA
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  84  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  84  61  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  70  80  69 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 210232
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AT 930 PM THAT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OVER THE GULF WATERS OFFSHORE OF
MATAGORDA BAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE LA/AR
BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT.

TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY GRIDS.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR E WINDS WHICH WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. CIGS
SHOULD BE VFR AND WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MIFG. E WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW TO
8-10KTS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE
REGION THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK /18Z
GOES SOUNDER ESTIMATING 45 TO 50 KT WINDS/ UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE DEPARTS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM SPEEDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE
DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER LAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE RIDGE OVER
TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF NOW RESEMBLING THE GFS IN TERMS OF A
FASTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE TRACK AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF RAIN
CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST TX. AS OF RIGHT NOW...ALL THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS IT PASSES LATE
WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND. THERE/S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WHICH
DAY...SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...WILL BE WARMER. FOR NOW... WILL SIDE
WITH SUNDAY BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

THE BIGGEST FORECASTING CONCERN THIS WEEK CENTERS AROUND MARINE
IMPACTS FROM A DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA... EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS AND INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE THE MARINE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

14

MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT (HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA) IS
EXPECTED TO BRING STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS TO THE
AREA. CAUTION FLAGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BEGINNING EITHER
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...AND ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE COULD
ALSO BE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED RETURN TO THE AREA
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  84  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  84  61  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  70  80  69 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 210232
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
932 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AT 930 PM THAT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OVER THE GULF WATERS OFFSHORE OF
MATAGORDA BAY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE LA/AR
BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT.

TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY GRIDS.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR E WINDS WHICH WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. CIGS
SHOULD BE VFR AND WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MIFG. E WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW TO
8-10KTS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE
REGION THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK /18Z
GOES SOUNDER ESTIMATING 45 TO 50 KT WINDS/ UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE DEPARTS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM SPEEDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE
DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER LAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE RIDGE OVER
TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF NOW RESEMBLING THE GFS IN TERMS OF A
FASTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE TRACK AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF RAIN
CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST TX. AS OF RIGHT NOW...ALL THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS IT PASSES LATE
WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND. THERE/S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WHICH
DAY...SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...WILL BE WARMER. FOR NOW... WILL SIDE
WITH SUNDAY BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

THE BIGGEST FORECASTING CONCERN THIS WEEK CENTERS AROUND MARINE
IMPACTS FROM A DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA... EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS AND INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE THE MARINE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

14

MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT (HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA) IS
EXPECTED TO BRING STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS TO THE
AREA. CAUTION FLAGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BEGINNING EITHER
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...AND ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE COULD
ALSO BE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED RETURN TO THE AREA
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  84  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  84  61  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  82  70  80  69 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



000
FXUS64 KAMA 210147
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
847 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
GRAPHICAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED...CONFINING ISOLATED EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ONLY...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LOSS OF INSOLATION.  NO OTHER
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.  UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THIS TIME SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  THUS...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCLUDED IN KAMA TAF.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY.

AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY.  POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
CERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...REACHING SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.  BASES OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED APART FROM
AFOREMENTIONED FOG AND STRATUS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 210147
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
847 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
GRAPHICAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED...CONFINING ISOLATED EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ONLY...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LOSS OF INSOLATION.  NO OTHER
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.  UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THIS TIME SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  THUS...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCLUDED IN KAMA TAF.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY.

AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY.  POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
CERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...REACHING SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.  BASES OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED APART FROM
AFOREMENTIONED FOG AND STRATUS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 210147
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
847 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
GRAPHICAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED...CONFINING ISOLATED EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ONLY...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LOSS OF INSOLATION.  NO OTHER
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.  UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THIS TIME SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  THUS...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCLUDED IN KAMA TAF.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY.

AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY.  POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
CERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...REACHING SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.  BASES OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED APART FROM
AFOREMENTIONED FOG AND STRATUS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 210147
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
847 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
GRAPHICAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED...CONFINING ISOLATED EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ONLY...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LOSS OF INSOLATION.  NO OTHER
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.  UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THIS TIME SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  THUS...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCLUDED IN KAMA TAF.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY.

AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY.  POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
CERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...REACHING SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.  BASES OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED APART FROM
AFOREMENTIONED FOG AND STRATUS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 210147
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
847 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
GRAPHICAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED...CONFINING ISOLATED EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ONLY...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LOSS OF INSOLATION.  NO OTHER
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.  UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THIS TIME SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  THUS...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCLUDED IN KAMA TAF.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY.

AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY.  POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
CERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...REACHING SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.  BASES OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED APART FROM
AFOREMENTIONED FOG AND STRATUS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 210147
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
847 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
GRAPHICAL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED...CONFINING ISOLATED EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
ONLY...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LOSS OF INSOLATION.  NO OTHER
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME.  UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THIS TIME SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  THUS...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCLUDED IN KAMA TAF.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY.

AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY.  POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
CERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...REACHING SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.  BASES OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED APART FROM
AFOREMENTIONED FOG AND STRATUS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/99






000
FXUS64 KLUB 210106
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
806 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK GRID UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHCS REST OF THIS EVENING FROM
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SRN PNHDL WHERE REMNANT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED INTO WRN NM THIS EVENING
WITH MOISTURE PLUME ARCING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS W TX
INTO CENTRAL NM. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR W TX AND SE NM LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOBE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT
THOUGH WILL BE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE S AND ADVECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE S PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTH OVERNIGHT AS FLOW TURNS MORE
SRLY IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT
KLBB THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN THAT SOME STRATUS WON/T MAKE A
RUN AT THE TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK. ALL MODELS INDICATE DOWNWARD
MOTION IN LOWEST LAYERS TO COUNTER MOISTURE ADVECTION SO LEFT
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST. DO EXPECT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AT KLBB.
SFC WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS REMAIN LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT THEN TURN
SRLY TUE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  10  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  10  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  10  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  20  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  10  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 210106
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
806 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK GRID UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHCS REST OF THIS EVENING FROM
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SRN PNHDL WHERE REMNANT CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. UPPER LOW HAS RETROGRADED INTO WRN NM THIS EVENING
WITH MOISTURE PLUME ARCING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS W TX
INTO CENTRAL NM. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS FAR W TX AND SE NM LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOBE OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT
THOUGH WILL BE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS EVENING. COULD HAVE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE S AND ADVECTS DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE S PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTH OVERNIGHT AS FLOW TURNS MORE
SRLY IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT
KLBB THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN THAT SOME STRATUS WON/T MAKE A
RUN AT THE TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK. ALL MODELS INDICATE DOWNWARD
MOTION IN LOWEST LAYERS TO COUNTER MOISTURE ADVECTION SO LEFT
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST. DO EXPECT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AT KLBB.
SFC WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS REMAIN LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT THEN TURN
SRLY TUE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  10  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  10  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  10  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  20  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  10  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99






000
FXUS64 KCRP 202344
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 202344 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 202344 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 202344 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 202344 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
644 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...A CONTINUING DIMINISHING TREND WITH CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z-15Z DUE TO PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT...AND FROM
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM ALI-LRD. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME
PERIOD...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST MAINLY IMPACTING CRP EARLY. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO MENTION
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND AS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT...WITH A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...BECOMING 10-15KT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KLUB 202342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTH OVERNIGHT AS FLOW TURNS MORE
SRLY IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT
KLBB THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN THAT SOME STRATUS WON/T MAKE A
RUN AT THE TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK. ALL MODELS INDICATE DOWNWARD
MOTION IN LOWEST LAYERS TO COUNTER MOISTURE ADVECTION SO LEFT
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST. DO EXPECT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AT KLBB.
SFC WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS REMAIN LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT THEN TURN
SRLY TUE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  20  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  20  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  20  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  30  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  20  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/55/24






000
FXUS64 KLUB 202342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK NORTH OVERNIGHT AS FLOW TURNS MORE
SRLY IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHING. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT
KLBB THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN THAT SOME STRATUS WON/T MAKE A
RUN AT THE TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK. ALL MODELS INDICATE DOWNWARD
MOTION IN LOWEST LAYERS TO COUNTER MOISTURE ADVECTION SO LEFT
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST. DO EXPECT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING AT KLBB.
SFC WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS REMAIN LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT THEN TURN
SRLY TUE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  20  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  20  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  20  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  30  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  20  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/55/24





000
FXUS64 KBRO 202336 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
636 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WANING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN
01-03Z. AS THE CONVECTION ENDS CUMULUS TO TEMPORARILY DISSIPATE AS
WELL HOWEVER WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF OF MOISTURE WITH A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND PERIODIC SCT TO POSSIBLE BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER APPROACHING MVFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY WHICH MIGHT BE MENTIONED IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10 TO 14 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.

EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.  /55/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.

EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK.  WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS.  LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.  STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK.  ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.  STAY TUNED.

ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.  RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT.  IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL.  /55/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA.  SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  /53/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  86  74  84 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            70  87  71  85 /  10  20  20  20
MCALLEN              71  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  86  69  86 /  20  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  84  77  84 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/52







000
FXUS64 KBRO 202336 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
636 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WANING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN
01-03Z. AS THE CONVECTION ENDS CUMULUS TO TEMPORARILY DISSIPATE AS
WELL HOWEVER WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF OF MOISTURE WITH A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND PERIODIC SCT TO POSSIBLE BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER APPROACHING MVFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY WHICH MIGHT BE MENTIONED IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10 TO 14 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.

EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.  /55/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.

EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK.  WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS.  LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.  STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK.  ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.  STAY TUNED.

ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.  RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT.  IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL.  /55/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA.  SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  /53/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  86  74  84 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            70  87  71  85 /  10  20  20  20
MCALLEN              71  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  86  69  86 /  20  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  84  77  84 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/52







000
FXUS64 KBRO 202336 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
636 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WANING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN
01-03Z. AS THE CONVECTION ENDS CUMULUS TO TEMPORARILY DISSIPATE AS
WELL HOWEVER WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF OF MOISTURE WITH A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND PERIODIC SCT TO POSSIBLE BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER APPROACHING MVFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY WHICH MIGHT BE MENTIONED IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10 TO 14 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.

EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.  /55/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.

EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK.  WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS.  LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.  STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK.  ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.  STAY TUNED.

ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.  RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT.  IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL.  /55/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA.  SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  /53/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  86  74  84 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            70  87  71  85 /  10  20  20  20
MCALLEN              71  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  86  69  86 /  20  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  84  77  84 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/52







000
FXUS64 KBRO 202336 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
636 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WANING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN
01-03Z. AS THE CONVECTION ENDS CUMULUS TO TEMPORARILY DISSIPATE AS
WELL HOWEVER WITH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF OF MOISTURE WITH A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND PERIODIC SCT TO POSSIBLE BKN VFR CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BUT COULD LOWER APPROACHING MVFR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY WHICH MIGHT BE MENTIONED IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10 TO 14 KNOTS TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.

EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.  /55/

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.

EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK.  WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS.  LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.  STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK.  ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.  STAY TUNED.

ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.  RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT.  IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL.  /55/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA.  SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  /53/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  86  74  84 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            70  87  71  85 /  10  20  20  20
MCALLEN              71  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  86  69  86 /  20  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  84  77  84 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/52







000
FXUS64 KEWX 202333
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. WE
SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AT KDRT AROUND SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE RIO-GRANDE PLAINS. THERE
IS A SMALL PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS OR VISIBILITIES AT THE SAN
ANTONIO SITES. CHANCES OF THIS ARE LOW AND WILL JUST MENTION 6SM
BR WITH SCT015 FOR NOW. ANY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT
BACK INTO VFR BY MID-DAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO
A TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NO POPS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE WEAKENING PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW SHOWN BY ALL MODELS TO REMAIN AN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MID INTO LATE WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS BACK EAST A
LITTLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS FORMER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM AND NO POPS
ARE MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANY
RAINS WILL EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...NO
POPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  84  62  84  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  58  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  58  82  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  83  65  84  65 /  20  30  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  83  60  83  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  85  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  84  58  84  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  85  58  84  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  86  61  85  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  86  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32








000
FXUS64 KEWX 202333
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. WE
SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AT KDRT AROUND SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE RIO-GRANDE PLAINS. THERE
IS A SMALL PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS OR VISIBILITIES AT THE SAN
ANTONIO SITES. CHANCES OF THIS ARE LOW AND WILL JUST MENTION 6SM
BR WITH SCT015 FOR NOW. ANY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT
BACK INTO VFR BY MID-DAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO
A TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NO POPS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE WEAKENING PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW SHOWN BY ALL MODELS TO REMAIN AN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MID INTO LATE WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS BACK EAST A
LITTLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS FORMER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM AND NO POPS
ARE MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANY
RAINS WILL EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...NO
POPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  84  62  84  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  58  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  58  82  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  83  65  84  65 /  20  30  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  83  60  83  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  85  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  84  58  84  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  85  58  84  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  86  61  85  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  86  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32








000
FXUS64 KEWX 202333
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. WE
SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AT KDRT AROUND SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE RIO-GRANDE PLAINS. THERE
IS A SMALL PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS OR VISIBILITIES AT THE SAN
ANTONIO SITES. CHANCES OF THIS ARE LOW AND WILL JUST MENTION 6SM
BR WITH SCT015 FOR NOW. ANY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT
BACK INTO VFR BY MID-DAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO
A TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NO POPS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE WEAKENING PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW SHOWN BY ALL MODELS TO REMAIN AN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MID INTO LATE WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS BACK EAST A
LITTLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS FORMER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM AND NO POPS
ARE MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANY
RAINS WILL EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...NO
POPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  84  62  84  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  58  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  58  82  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  83  65  84  65 /  20  30  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  83  60  83  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  85  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  84  58  84  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  85  58  84  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  86  61  85  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  86  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32








000
FXUS64 KEWX 202333
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. WE
SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AT KDRT AROUND SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE RIO-GRANDE PLAINS. THERE
IS A SMALL PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS OR VISIBILITIES AT THE SAN
ANTONIO SITES. CHANCES OF THIS ARE LOW AND WILL JUST MENTION 6SM
BR WITH SCT015 FOR NOW. ANY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT
BACK INTO VFR BY MID-DAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO
A TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NO POPS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE WEAKENING PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW SHOWN BY ALL MODELS TO REMAIN AN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MID INTO LATE WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS BACK EAST A
LITTLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS FORMER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM AND NO POPS
ARE MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANY
RAINS WILL EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...NO
POPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  84  62  84  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  58  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  58  82  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  83  65  84  65 /  20  30  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  83  60  83  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  85  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  84  58  84  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  85  58  84  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  86  61  85  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  86  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32








000
FXUS64 KFWD 202333
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. I PULLED THE SUNRISE MVFR VIS FROM TOMORROW
MORNING/S WACO TAF BECAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY MOIST ABOVE
700MB WHICH WILL SLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. CROSSOVER TEMP IS A
BIT LOWER AS WELL...AND ONLY THE NAM SUGGESTS BRIEF FOG
FORMATION. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO RESIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE
CHURNING OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR
US...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS SETUP YIELDS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMING INTO THE 80S.

AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO SLIDES EASTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE
MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO YIELD ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS. HOWEVER... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PROVIDING MORE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER NORTH
TEXAS WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS...MOST DO SHOW SIGNS
OF SOME PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR OUR
RED RIVER COUNTIES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRIEFLY BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BRIEF ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB YET AGAIN INTO THE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON MONDAY. SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SO FAR OUT...HAVE ONLY PUT IN 20 POPS IN FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.   AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  63  78  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              59  81  61  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             57  81  58  77  54 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            59  81  60  79  59 /  10   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  59  79  56 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            62  82  63  79  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           58  81  60  78  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  82  60  78  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  81  60  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  82  58  80  59 /  10   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 202333
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. I PULLED THE SUNRISE MVFR VIS FROM TOMORROW
MORNING/S WACO TAF BECAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY MOIST ABOVE
700MB WHICH WILL SLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. CROSSOVER TEMP IS A
BIT LOWER AS WELL...AND ONLY THE NAM SUGGESTS BRIEF FOG
FORMATION. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO RESIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE
CHURNING OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR
US...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS SETUP YIELDS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMING INTO THE 80S.

AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO SLIDES EASTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE
MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO YIELD ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS. HOWEVER... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PROVIDING MORE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER NORTH
TEXAS WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS...MOST DO SHOW SIGNS
OF SOME PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR OUR
RED RIVER COUNTIES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRIEFLY BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BRIEF ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB YET AGAIN INTO THE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON MONDAY. SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SO FAR OUT...HAVE ONLY PUT IN 20 POPS IN FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.   AJS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  81  63  78  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              59  81  61  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             57  81  58  77  54 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            59  81  60  79  59 /  10   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  59  79  56 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            62  82  63  79  61 /   5   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           58  81  60  78  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  82  60  78  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  81  60  79  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  82  58  80  59 /  10   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 202326 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THIS TIME SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  THUS...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCLUDED IN KAMA TAF.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY.

AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY.  POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
CERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...REACHING SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.  BASES OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED APART FROM
AFOREMENTIONED FOG AND STRATUS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  74  52  70  51 /  10  10  10  40  40
BEAVER OK                  51  79  54  77  51 /   0   0   5  40  50
BOISE CITY OK              47  74  49  70  47 /  10  10  10  40  20
BORGER TX                  53  77  55  74  54 /  10   5  10  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              50  75  51  72  50 /  10  10  10  40  30
CANYON TX                  51  74  51  69  50 /  20  10  10  40  40
CLARENDON TX               54  78  52  74  51 /  10  10  10  40  40
DALHART TX                 47  75  50  71  47 /  10  10  10  40  30
GUYMON OK                  50  78  52  75  50 /   5   5   5  40  50
HEREFORD TX                50  73  50  70  49 /  20  10  20  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                52  79  55  75  53 /   0   0   5  40  50
PAMPA TX                   52  77  52  71  51 /  10   5   5  40  40
SHAMROCK TX                53  79  54  75  52 /  10  10  10  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              55  80  56  76  54 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/99






000
FXUS64 KAMA 202326 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THIS TIME SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  THUS...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCLUDED IN KAMA TAF.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY.

AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY.  POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
CERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...REACHING SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.  BASES OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED APART FROM
AFOREMENTIONED FOG AND STRATUS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  74  52  70  51 /  10  10  10  40  40
BEAVER OK                  51  79  54  77  51 /   0   0   5  40  50
BOISE CITY OK              47  74  49  70  47 /  10  10  10  40  20
BORGER TX                  53  77  55  74  54 /  10   5  10  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              50  75  51  72  50 /  10  10  10  40  30
CANYON TX                  51  74  51  69  50 /  20  10  10  40  40
CLARENDON TX               54  78  52  74  51 /  10  10  10  40  40
DALHART TX                 47  75  50  71  47 /  10  10  10  40  30
GUYMON OK                  50  78  52  75  50 /   5   5   5  40  50
HEREFORD TX                50  73  50  70  49 /  20  10  20  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                52  79  55  75  53 /   0   0   5  40  50
PAMPA TX                   52  77  52  71  51 /  10   5   5  40  40
SHAMROCK TX                53  79  54  75  52 /  10  10  10  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              55  80  56  76  54 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/99






000
FXUS64 KAMA 202326 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THIS TIME SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  THUS...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCLUDED IN KAMA TAF.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY.

AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY.  POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
CERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...REACHING SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.  BASES OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED APART FROM
AFOREMENTIONED FOG AND STRATUS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  74  52  70  51 /  10  10  10  40  40
BEAVER OK                  51  79  54  77  51 /   0   0   5  40  50
BOISE CITY OK              47  74  49  70  47 /  10  10  10  40  20
BORGER TX                  53  77  55  74  54 /  10   5  10  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              50  75  51  72  50 /  10  10  10  40  30
CANYON TX                  51  74  51  69  50 /  20  10  10  40  40
CLARENDON TX               54  78  52  74  51 /  10  10  10  40  40
DALHART TX                 47  75  50  71  47 /  10  10  10  40  30
GUYMON OK                  50  78  52  75  50 /   5   5   5  40  50
HEREFORD TX                50  73  50  70  49 /  20  10  20  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                52  79  55  75  53 /   0   0   5  40  50
PAMPA TX                   52  77  52  71  51 /  10   5   5  40  40
SHAMROCK TX                53  79  54  75  52 /  10  10  10  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              55  80  56  76  54 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/99






000
FXUS64 KAMA 202326 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
626 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT
THIS TIME SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.  THUS...NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INCLUDED IN KAMA TAF.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER A GENERALLY
CLEAR SKY.

AT NORTHERN TERMINALS...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY.  POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF MVFR OR IFR STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP AT NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
CERTAINTY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST.  SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...REACHING SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT.  BASES OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED APART FROM
AFOREMENTIONED FOG AND STRATUS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  74  52  70  51 /  10  10  10  40  40
BEAVER OK                  51  79  54  77  51 /   0   0   5  40  50
BOISE CITY OK              47  74  49  70  47 /  10  10  10  40  20
BORGER TX                  53  77  55  74  54 /  10   5  10  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              50  75  51  72  50 /  10  10  10  40  30
CANYON TX                  51  74  51  69  50 /  20  10  10  40  40
CLARENDON TX               54  78  52  74  51 /  10  10  10  40  40
DALHART TX                 47  75  50  71  47 /  10  10  10  40  30
GUYMON OK                  50  78  52  75  50 /   5   5   5  40  50
HEREFORD TX                50  73  50  70  49 /  20  10  20  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                52  79  55  75  53 /   0   0   5  40  50
PAMPA TX                   52  77  52  71  51 /  10   5   5  40  40
SHAMROCK TX                53  79  54  75  52 /  10  10  10  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              55  80  56  76  54 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/99






000
FXUS64 KHGX 202321
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR E WINDS WHICH WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. CIGS
SHOULD BE VFR AND WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MIFG. E WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW TO
8-10KTS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE
REGION THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK /18Z
GOES SOUNDER ESTIMATING 45 TO 50 KT WINDS/ UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE DEPARTS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM SPEEDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE
DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER LAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE RIDGE OVER
TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF NOW RESEMBLING THE GFS IN TERMS OF A
FASTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE TRACK AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF RAIN
CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST TX. AS OF RIGHT NOW...ALL THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS IT PASSES LATE
WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND. THERE/S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WHICH
DAY...SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...WILL BE WARMER. FOR NOW... WILL SIDE
WITH SUNDAY BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

THE BIGGEST FORECASTING CONCERN THIS WEEK CENTERS AROUND MARINE
IMPACTS FROM A DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA... EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS AND INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE THE MARINE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

14

MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT (HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA) IS
EXPECTED TO BRING STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS TO THE
AREA. CAUTION FLAGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BEGINNING EITHER
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...AND ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE COULD
ALSO BE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED RETURN TO THE AREA
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      59  84  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  84  61  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  82  70  80  69 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



000
FXUS64 KHGX 202321
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
621 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR E WINDS WHICH WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. CIGS
SHOULD BE VFR AND WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MIFG. E WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW TO
8-10KTS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE
REGION THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK /18Z
GOES SOUNDER ESTIMATING 45 TO 50 KT WINDS/ UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE DEPARTS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM SPEEDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE
DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER LAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE RIDGE OVER
TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF NOW RESEMBLING THE GFS IN TERMS OF A
FASTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE TRACK AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF RAIN
CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST TX. AS OF RIGHT NOW...ALL THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS IT PASSES LATE
WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND. THERE/S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WHICH
DAY...SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...WILL BE WARMER. FOR NOW... WILL SIDE
WITH SUNDAY BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

THE BIGGEST FORECASTING CONCERN THIS WEEK CENTERS AROUND MARINE
IMPACTS FROM A DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA... EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS AND INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE THE MARINE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

14

MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT (HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA) IS
EXPECTED TO BRING STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS TO THE
AREA. CAUTION FLAGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BEGINNING EITHER
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...AND ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE COULD
ALSO BE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED RETURN TO THE AREA
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      59  84  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  84  61  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  82  70  80  69 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KSJT 202312
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

At mid-afternoon, a weak upper low was over extreme northwestern
Chihuahua Province in Mexico, just south of the border with
Arizona and New Mexico. A minor lead shortwave ahead of the low
was entering southwestern Texas. This has generated widely
scattered showers across the Trans-Pecos and into our southwestern
counties, where the airmass is weakly unstable. The upper low will
open into a trough and lift northeast across West Texas during the
day Tuesday. The better rain chances with this system will remain
west of our area. We are carrying 20-30 PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms tonight across the area west of a Sterling City to
Sonora line. Have expanded the slight chance PoP north on Tuesday
to include Sterling County and the western parts of Fisher and
Nolan Counties. Across the rest of our area, the cumulus field
this afternoon will dissipate during the evening, followed by some
increase in high and middle cloud cover from the southwest
overnight into Tuesday. Have a potential for some patchy light fog
to develop across our east-central and southeastern counties by
early Tuesday morning, but this will depend on the extent of cloud
cover/duration of clearing. Little temperature change is expected
with overnight lows and afternoon highs through Tuesday.

19

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

The closed upper-level cyclone over the Desert Southwest will
slowly open up and lift northeast over the next 36 hours,
weakening as it moves into the Plains and is absorbed into the
northern stream. Weak ascent will be maintained through Tuesday
evening, but should wane as the trough continues to dampen.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
southwestern portion of the CWA early in the Tuesday night period.
However, with sunset around 7 PM, the earlier loss of surface
heating should preclude convection lasting past 03z.

By midweek, the potent trough currently moving ashore over the
Pacific Northwest will be moving east into the Plains. The model
consensus keeps the primary ascent focused over the northern and
central Plains, but we should see some synoptic scale lift
Wednesday into early Thursday as the southern extent of the trough
axis makes its way across the region. As was the case 24 hours
ago, the ECMWF and GEM are a bit more amplified with this trough,
whereas the GFS depicts a less pronounced wave. PoPs were
maintained in the 20-30% range Wednesday afternoon and night, with
the best rain chances across the western Concho Valley and Big
Country.

These same models are all producing light QPF across the area on
Thursday, but confidence is somewhat low giving the forecast
location of the departing trough. Slight chance PoPs were retained
areawide. The weak cold front that was advertised yesterday by the
ECMWF and GEM is no longer in their respective solutions, with
southerly flow maintained throughout the week. This will keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s both Wednesday and
Thursday, warming as we head into the weekend.

By Friday, we should be on the subsident side of the trough with a
transient mid-level ridge traversing the central CONUS. Expect
mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Friday through Sunday.
The medium range models differ in the evolution of the pattern by
early next week, but the consensus is that a trough will move
across the western states Sunday into Monday. Given the model
disparity, confidence is low regarding the forecast by Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  57  79  56  77  57 /   5   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  56  79  55  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  56  79  53  81  57 /   5  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KSJT 202312
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals the 24 hours. The winds
will be east to southeast at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

At mid-afternoon, a weak upper low was over extreme northwestern
Chihuahua Province in Mexico, just south of the border with
Arizona and New Mexico. A minor lead shortwave ahead of the low
was entering southwestern Texas. This has generated widely
scattered showers across the Trans-Pecos and into our southwestern
counties, where the airmass is weakly unstable. The upper low will
open into a trough and lift northeast across West Texas during the
day Tuesday. The better rain chances with this system will remain
west of our area. We are carrying 20-30 PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms tonight across the area west of a Sterling City to
Sonora line. Have expanded the slight chance PoP north on Tuesday
to include Sterling County and the western parts of Fisher and
Nolan Counties. Across the rest of our area, the cumulus field
this afternoon will dissipate during the evening, followed by some
increase in high and middle cloud cover from the southwest
overnight into Tuesday. Have a potential for some patchy light fog
to develop across our east-central and southeastern counties by
early Tuesday morning, but this will depend on the extent of cloud
cover/duration of clearing. Little temperature change is expected
with overnight lows and afternoon highs through Tuesday.

19

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

The closed upper-level cyclone over the Desert Southwest will
slowly open up and lift northeast over the next 36 hours,
weakening as it moves into the Plains and is absorbed into the
northern stream. Weak ascent will be maintained through Tuesday
evening, but should wane as the trough continues to dampen.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
southwestern portion of the CWA early in the Tuesday night period.
However, with sunset around 7 PM, the earlier loss of surface
heating should preclude convection lasting past 03z.

By midweek, the potent trough currently moving ashore over the
Pacific Northwest will be moving east into the Plains. The model
consensus keeps the primary ascent focused over the northern and
central Plains, but we should see some synoptic scale lift
Wednesday into early Thursday as the southern extent of the trough
axis makes its way across the region. As was the case 24 hours
ago, the ECMWF and GEM are a bit more amplified with this trough,
whereas the GFS depicts a less pronounced wave. PoPs were
maintained in the 20-30% range Wednesday afternoon and night, with
the best rain chances across the western Concho Valley and Big
Country.

These same models are all producing light QPF across the area on
Thursday, but confidence is somewhat low giving the forecast
location of the departing trough. Slight chance PoPs were retained
areawide. The weak cold front that was advertised yesterday by the
ECMWF and GEM is no longer in their respective solutions, with
southerly flow maintained throughout the week. This will keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s both Wednesday and
Thursday, warming as we head into the weekend.

By Friday, we should be on the subsident side of the trough with a
transient mid-level ridge traversing the central CONUS. Expect
mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Friday through Sunday.
The medium range models differ in the evolution of the pattern by
early next week, but the consensus is that a trough will move
across the western states Sunday into Monday. Given the model
disparity, confidence is low regarding the forecast by Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  57  79  56  77  57 /   5   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  56  79  55  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  56  79  53  81  57 /   5  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








000
FXUS64 KMAF 202301
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Will continue to carry thunderstorms at all but KMAF as showers and
thunderstorms continue along and west of an axis from Hobbs to Fort
Stockton this evening.  Expect VFR ceilings to lower to MVFR later
tonight, and possibly dip to IFR by 21/12Z at most terminals.  In
addition, fog could lower visibility to at least MVFR levels by
21/12Z at most TAF sites.  It appears MVFR ceilings may hang around
for much of the day Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Satellite and 12Z RAOB data place an upper low SW of El Paso City
with some minor lead shrtwv energy kicking out into the Trans
Pecos. Hier PW values ridge nwd thru the Trans Pecos from the
Lower Rio Grande Valley, and local heavy rain is possible. Mid
level theta-e ridge does have trouble moving e and for today/this
evening best PoPs will remain across wrn 1/2 of CWFA. However
there`s a substantial amount of TCU developing across the area
currently, including the PB and in the near term there is an
increasing chance of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise light precip will be
possible just e of the Pecos River tonight as dampening shrtwv
trof/s come out. The upper low will be weakening/filling as it
slowly moves e Tue. This will help set-up the axis of the hier PWs
farther e, including across the PB. Model consensus including HPC
QPF is again supporting best PoPs to be to the w extending from
the Davis Mtns into the wrn PB, possibly central PB. Current grids
reflect this pretty well and will make only minor adjustments.
Finally Wed this slow moving trof axis will be farther e into the
PB and this actually may be the day with the best chance of rain
with NAM12 bringing out a well defined maxima of lift in mid
levels. Current PoPs are mostly around 40% and will opt to
increase closer to 50-60%. Thereafter pattern transitions to
ridging aloft Thur-Sat, so above normal temperatures will return.
A dry cold front will possible by next Monday, thus cooler, but
moreso for areas n of I-20.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  70  54  71  /  20  30  40  60
BIG SPRING TX              59  74  56  71  /  20  20  20  50
CARLSBAD NM                57  70  57  75  /  50  50  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  64  73  61  74  /  50  40  40  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  71  57  74  /  40  60  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  66  51  69  /  50  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   56  70  53  67  /  30  40  40  60
MARFA TX                   54  68  50  72  /  50  60  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  73  54  72  /  20  40  40  60
ODESSA TX                  58  72  55  73  /  30  40  40  60
WINK TX                    62  73  59  77  /  40  50  40  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 202301
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Will continue to carry thunderstorms at all but KMAF as showers and
thunderstorms continue along and west of an axis from Hobbs to Fort
Stockton this evening.  Expect VFR ceilings to lower to MVFR later
tonight, and possibly dip to IFR by 21/12Z at most terminals.  In
addition, fog could lower visibility to at least MVFR levels by
21/12Z at most TAF sites.  It appears MVFR ceilings may hang around
for much of the day Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Satellite and 12Z RAOB data place an upper low SW of El Paso City
with some minor lead shrtwv energy kicking out into the Trans
Pecos. Hier PW values ridge nwd thru the Trans Pecos from the
Lower Rio Grande Valley, and local heavy rain is possible. Mid
level theta-e ridge does have trouble moving e and for today/this
evening best PoPs will remain across wrn 1/2 of CWFA. However
there`s a substantial amount of TCU developing across the area
currently, including the PB and in the near term there is an
increasing chance of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise light precip will be
possible just e of the Pecos River tonight as dampening shrtwv
trof/s come out. The upper low will be weakening/filling as it
slowly moves e Tue. This will help set-up the axis of the hier PWs
farther e, including across the PB. Model consensus including HPC
QPF is again supporting best PoPs to be to the w extending from
the Davis Mtns into the wrn PB, possibly central PB. Current grids
reflect this pretty well and will make only minor adjustments.
Finally Wed this slow moving trof axis will be farther e into the
PB and this actually may be the day with the best chance of rain
with NAM12 bringing out a well defined maxima of lift in mid
levels. Current PoPs are mostly around 40% and will opt to
increase closer to 50-60%. Thereafter pattern transitions to
ridging aloft Thur-Sat, so above normal temperatures will return.
A dry cold front will possible by next Monday, thus cooler, but
moreso for areas n of I-20.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  70  54  71  /  20  30  40  60
BIG SPRING TX              59  74  56  71  /  20  20  20  50
CARLSBAD NM                57  70  57  75  /  50  50  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  64  73  61  74  /  50  40  40  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  71  57  74  /  40  60  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  66  51  69  /  50  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   56  70  53  67  /  30  40  40  60
MARFA TX                   54  68  50  72  /  50  60  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  73  54  72  /  20  40  40  60
ODESSA TX                  58  72  55  73  /  30  40  40  60
WINK TX                    62  73  59  77  /  40  50  40  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202122
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
321 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL WILL LIFT OUT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWS BEHIND THIS
FIRST LOW AND WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THE LATTER PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS
THAT UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE BORDERLAND TO BRING US SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE NORMAL. WEST FLOW THEN STRAIGHTENS...COLLAPSING AND THEN
MOVING THE RIDGE EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FLOW WILL
REMAIN DRY HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE NM BOOTHEEL. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT OPENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY
TUESDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS...DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. DEEPER LAYERS
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT CURRENT PW`S OVER THE CWA
ARE AROUND .8" AND MODELS SHOWING THOSE PW`S REMAINING AROUND
.8"-.9" ON TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SO SOME LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IT APPEARS THAT
AS GOOD AS THE HRRR PERFORMED LAST NIGHT...IT IS THAT BAD TODAY.
MODEL SHOWS STRONG CONVECTION TO HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER WEST TEXAS
AND MOVED NORTHWEST OVER EL PASO BY AROUND THIS TIME. WHILE SOME
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THIS AREA...NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE SAME
COVERAGE AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT OPEN WAVE IS NOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES IN BEHIND...OVER WESTERN ARIZONA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
MAY ENHANCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY END SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS
RIDGING AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WILL LEAVE
LOW POPS IN FAR EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
BY FRIDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST AND ERODES AWAY AS STRONG
WEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS BETTER TIMED THAN PREVIOUS
GFS RUNS SO SUNDAY MAY BECOME WINDIER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z - 21/00Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AREAS OF SHRA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF KDMN THROUGH THRU 12Z. VSBY WILL BE
PERIODICALLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 3SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE
CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE AND LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET AGL.
THROUGH 12Z. CIGS AT KTCS MAY BE LOWER OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MOSTLY EAST OF
DEMING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN SOME
STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE MORNINGS WITH POOR VENTILATION RATES
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AND INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 56  73  55  75  53 /  40  30  40  30   0
SIERRA BLANCA           50  70  50  72  49 /  50  40  40  40  20
LAS CRUCES              51  71  52  71  49 /  30  30  40  30   0
ALAMOGORDO              51  71  52  71  49 /  40  30  40  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              42  56  40  58  35 /  50  40  40  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   52  71  52  71  51 /  20  30  30  20   0
SILVER CITY             47  66  48  68  47 /  20  20  20  20   0
DEMING                  51  72  52  72  48 /  20  30  30  20   0
LORDSBURG               52  72  51  74  49 /  20  20  20  20   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  72  56  74  54 /  40  30  40  30   0
DELL CITY               49  72  48  73  45 /  50  40  40  40  20
FORT HANCOCK            54  74  53  77  52 /  50  40  40  30  20
LOMA LINDA              50  67  51  68  51 /  50  30  40  30  20
FABENS                  52  75  52  77  50 /  40  30  40  30   0
SANTA TERESA            53  72  53  72  51 /  40  30  40  30   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  71  55  70  52 /  40  30  40  30   0
JORNADA RANGE           50  71  47  70  44 /  30  30  40  30   0
HATCH                   49  71  49  70  47 /  30  30  30  30   0
COLUMBUS                53  72  54  73  51 /  20  30  30  20   0
OROGRANDE               52  72  53  72  51 /  40  30  40  30  20
MAYHILL                 43  61  44  64  42 /  50  40  40  40  20
MESCALERO               40  62  41  63  37 /  40  40  40  40  20
TIMBERON                40  61  42  63  38 /  50  40  40  40  20
WINSTON                 45  65  46  67  43 /  30  30  40  30   0
HILLSBORO               49  67  50  68  47 /  20  30  30  20   0
SPACEPORT               48  71  48  70  45 /  30  30  40  30   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  65  45  68  43 /  30  30  30  20   0
HURLEY                  48  68  49  70  49 /  20  20  30  20   0
CLIFF                   46  70  44  72  41 /  20  20  20  20   0
MULE CREEK              44  69  41  71  38 /  20  20  20  10   0
FAYWOOD                 49  67  50  69  48 /  20  30  30  20   0
ANIMAS                  51  73  51  76  49 /  20  20  20  20   0
HACHITA                 50  72  49  74  48 /  20  20  30  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          49  76  49  76  47 /  20  20  20  20   0
CLOVERDALE              49  74  51  75  48 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/LUNDEEN








000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202122
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
321 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL WILL LIFT OUT
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWS BEHIND THIS
FIRST LOW AND WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THE LATTER PORTION OF WEDNESDAY AS
THAT UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE BORDERLAND TO BRING US SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE NORMAL. WEST FLOW THEN STRAIGHTENS...COLLAPSING AND THEN
MOVING THE RIDGE EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FLOW WILL
REMAIN DRY HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE NM BOOTHEEL. THE LOW
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT OPENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE BY
TUESDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS...DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. DEEPER LAYERS
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA BUT CURRENT PW`S OVER THE CWA
ARE AROUND .8" AND MODELS SHOWING THOSE PW`S REMAINING AROUND
.8"-.9" ON TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SO SOME LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IT APPEARS THAT
AS GOOD AS THE HRRR PERFORMED LAST NIGHT...IT IS THAT BAD TODAY.
MODEL SHOWS STRONG CONVECTION TO HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER WEST TEXAS
AND MOVED NORTHWEST OVER EL PASO BY AROUND THIS TIME. WHILE SOME
CONVECTION IS FORMING IN THIS AREA...NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE SAME
COVERAGE AS THE HRRR IS SHOWING.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT OPEN WAVE IS NOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES IN BEHIND...OVER WESTERN ARIZONA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
MAY ENHANCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY END SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON AS
RIDGING AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WILL LEAVE
LOW POPS IN FAR EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
BY FRIDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST AND ERODES AWAY AS STRONG
WEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS BETTER TIMED THAN PREVIOUS
GFS RUNS SO SUNDAY MAY BECOME WINDIER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z - 21/00Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AREAS OF SHRA AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF KDMN THROUGH THRU 12Z. VSBY WILL BE
PERIODICALLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 3SM IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE
CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE AND LOWER TO BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FEET AGL.
THROUGH 12Z. CIGS AT KTCS MAY BE LOWER OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MOSTLY EAST OF
DEMING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN SOME
STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE MORNINGS WITH POOR VENTILATION RATES
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AND INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 56  73  55  75  53 /  40  30  40  30   0
SIERRA BLANCA           50  70  50  72  49 /  50  40  40  40  20
LAS CRUCES              51  71  52  71  49 /  30  30  40  30   0
ALAMOGORDO              51  71  52  71  49 /  40  30  40  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              42  56  40  58  35 /  50  40  40  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   52  71  52  71  51 /  20  30  30  20   0
SILVER CITY             47  66  48  68  47 /  20  20  20  20   0
DEMING                  51  72  52  72  48 /  20  30  30  20   0
LORDSBURG               52  72  51  74  49 /  20  20  20  20   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  72  56  74  54 /  40  30  40  30   0
DELL CITY               49  72  48  73  45 /  50  40  40  40  20
FORT HANCOCK            54  74  53  77  52 /  50  40  40  30  20
LOMA LINDA              50  67  51  68  51 /  50  30  40  30  20
FABENS                  52  75  52  77  50 /  40  30  40  30   0
SANTA TERESA            53  72  53  72  51 /  40  30  40  30   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  71  55  70  52 /  40  30  40  30   0
JORNADA RANGE           50  71  47  70  44 /  30  30  40  30   0
HATCH                   49  71  49  70  47 /  30  30  30  30   0
COLUMBUS                53  72  54  73  51 /  20  30  30  20   0
OROGRANDE               52  72  53  72  51 /  40  30  40  30  20
MAYHILL                 43  61  44  64  42 /  50  40  40  40  20
MESCALERO               40  62  41  63  37 /  40  40  40  40  20
TIMBERON                40  61  42  63  38 /  50  40  40  40  20
WINSTON                 45  65  46  67  43 /  30  30  40  30   0
HILLSBORO               49  67  50  68  47 /  20  30  30  20   0
SPACEPORT               48  71  48  70  45 /  30  30  40  30   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  65  45  68  43 /  30  30  30  20   0
HURLEY                  48  68  49  70  49 /  20  20  30  20   0
CLIFF                   46  70  44  72  41 /  20  20  20  20   0
MULE CREEK              44  69  41  71  38 /  20  20  20  10   0
FAYWOOD                 49  67  50  69  48 /  20  30  30  20   0
ANIMAS                  51  73  51  76  49 /  20  20  20  20   0
HACHITA                 50  72  49  74  48 /  20  20  30  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          49  76  49  76  47 /  20  20  20  20   0
CLOVERDALE              49  74  51  75  48 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/LUNDEEN









000
FXUS64 KLUB 202110
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

.LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  20  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  20  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  20  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  30  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  20  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/55





000
FXUS64 KLUB 202110
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
410 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...
AFTER SOME FOG THIS MORNING...CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN
PLACE.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS HINTS AT AND CURRENT WV SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS NRN MEXICO/AZ/NM BORDER REGION
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LAST 6 HOURS.  AHEAD OF
THE LOW...DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST AND A TROUGH CUTTING ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
FRONT HAD STALLED OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH OF
A PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A FEW WERE TRYING TO POP UP ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  MODELS FORECAST AROUND
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS OF WIND WITH THE STORMS BUT
EXPECT MAINLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW CLAPS OF
THUNDER.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SINCE
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE REGION.  A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT EXPECT TO SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNDOWN.  LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN BE PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH MIXING FROM TAKING PLACE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED...INSTABILITY LEVELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS UNCHANGED.

.LONGTERM...
LONGTERM FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME RAINFALL FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND ENDING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN AN OVERALL EASTERLY COMPONENT
TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY EASTWARD
AND OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPTS ALREADY IN
PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED...NON-SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS OUT
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WARM UP
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH US REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN AFTER THIS
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY...STILL A LONG WAY OFF TO PROVIDE
ANY CONTEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  71  51  68  52 /  20  10  30  50  30
TULIA         53  73  53  70  52 /  20  10  10  50  40
PLAINVIEW     53  73  53  69  53 /  20  10  20  50  40
LEVELLAND     53  71  54  69  54 /  20  20  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       53  72  54  69  54 /  20  10  20  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  70  55  69  54 /  30  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    54  71  55  69  55 /  20  20  30  50  30
CHILDRESS     58  80  57  75  56 /  10  10  10  40  40
SPUR          56  76  57  72  56 /  10  10  10  50  40
ASPERMONT     57  77  57  75  57 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/55






000
FXUS64 KSJT 202046
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
346 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

At mid-afternoon, a weak upper low was over extreme northwestern
Chihuahua Province in Mexico, just south of the border with
Arizona and New Mexico. A minor lead shortwave ahead of the low
was entering southwestern Texas. This has generated widely
scattered showers across the Trans-Pecos and into our southwestern
counties, where the airmass is weakly unstable. The upper low will
open into a trough and lift northeast across West Texas during the
day Tuesday. The better rain chances with this system will remain
west of our area. We are carrying 20-30 PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms tonight across the area west of a Sterling City to
Sonora line. Have expanded the slight chance PoP north on Tuesday
to include Sterling County and the western parts of Fisher and
Nolan Counties. Across the rest of our area, the cumulus field
this afternoon will dissipate during the evening, followed by some
increase in high and middle cloud cover from the southwest
overnight into Tuesday. Have a potential for some patchy light fog
to develop across our east-central and southeastern counties by
early Tuesday morning, but this will depend on the extent of cloud
cover/duration of clearing. Little temperature change is expected
with overnight lows and afternoon highs through Tuesday.

19

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

The closed upper-level cyclone over the Desert Southwest will
slowly open up and lift northeast over the next 36 hours,
weakening as it moves into the Plains and is absorbed into the
northern stream. Weak ascent will be maintained through Tuesday
evening, but should wane as the trough continues to dampen.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
southwestern portion of the CWA early in the Tuesday night period.
However, with sunset around 7 PM, the earlier loss of surface
heating should preclude convection lasting past 03z.

By midweek, the potent trough currently moving ashore over the
Pacific Northwest will be moving east into the Plains. The model
consensus keeps the primary ascent focused over the northern and
central Plains, but we should see some synoptic scale lift
Wednesday into early Thursday as the southern extent of the trough
axis makes its way across the region. As was the case 24 hours
ago, the ECMWF and GEM are a bit more amplified with this trough,
whereas the GFS depicts a less pronounced wave. PoPs were
maintained in the 20-30% range Wednesday afternoon and night, with
the best rain chances across the western Concho Valley and Big
Country.

These same models are all producing light QPF across the area on
Thursday, but confidence is somewhat low giving the forecast
location of the departing trough. Slight chance PoPs were retained
areawide. The weak cold front that was advertised yesterday by the
ECMWF and GEM is no longer in their respective solutions, with
southerly flow maintained throughout the week. This will keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s both Wednesday and
Thursday, warming as we head into the weekend.

By Friday, we should be on the subsident side of the trough with a
transient mid-level ridge traversing the central CONUS. Expect
mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s Friday through Sunday.
The medium range models differ in the evolution of the pattern by
early next week, but the consensus is that a trough will move
across the western states Sunday into Monday. Given the model
disparity, confidence is low regarding the forecast by Monday.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  57  79  56  77  57 /   5   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  56  79  55  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  20
Junction  56  79  53  81  57 /   5  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19/25





000
FXUS64 KCRP 202025
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
325 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND SW COASTAL BEND. ISOLD SHRA`S ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TOWARD TUE MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST.
MODELS PROG DRIER AIR CURRENTLY NE OF THE CWA TO DRIFT SW INTO THE
CWA THROUGH TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W AND S AREAS AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF THE NE CWA. WENT WITH MAINLY -SHRA`S ACROSS THE INLAND
AREAS WITH A MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SRN COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY ON TUE. THE DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NE CWA WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER LOWS AT NIGHT AND A
WARMER HIGH TEMP TUE. MORE CLOUDS FARTHER S AND W WILL LEAD TO A
LESSER DIURNAL SPREAD. A PERSISTENT NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON TO MOD LEVELS. THE
NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOD RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BUT THIS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY AIR AND MID/UPR LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
(SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S (NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS). THE DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF IT DEVELOPS IT COULD
BRIEFLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. WINDS/SEAS COULD FLIRT WITH SCA CRITERIA.
THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY FEW CLOUDS. LOOKING LIKE A GREAT FALL WEEKEND TO BE
OUTDOORS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  86  66  84  68  /  10  20  20  10  10
VICTORIA          62  86  60  84  62  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  87  68  85  68  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             68  87  65  85  65  /  20  20  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          72  85  69  83  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  86  63  85  65  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  87  66  85  67  /  20  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       73  84  71  83  72  /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KAMA 202023
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  74  52  70  51 /  10  10  10  40  40
BEAVER OK                  51  79  54  77  51 /   0   0   5  40  50
BOISE CITY OK              47  74  49  70  47 /  10  10  10  40  20
BORGER TX                  53  77  55  74  54 /  10   5  10  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              50  75  51  72  50 /  10  10  10  40  30
CANYON TX                  51  74  51  69  50 /  20  10  10  40  40
CLARENDON TX               54  78  52  74  51 /  10  10  10  40  40
DALHART TX                 47  75  50  71  47 /  10  10  10  40  30
GUYMON OK                  50  78  52  75  50 /   5   5   5  40  50
HEREFORD TX                50  73  50  70  49 /  20  10  20  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                52  79  55  75  53 /   0   0   5  40  50
PAMPA TX                   52  77  52  71  51 /  10   5   5  40  40
SHAMROCK TX                53  79  54  75  52 /  10  10  10  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              55  80  56  76  54 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14





000
FXUS64 KAMA 202023
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
323 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A VORT LOBE FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TUESDAY DAYTIME SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE
COULD SEE PRECIP SNEAK ONCE AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS VARY A LITTLE ON IF THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT A
GREATER PART OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS
CONTINUED AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY BY THE NOON
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH DURING THE DAY SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 30KT
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING THESE STORMS CHANCES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FROM THE
70S ON THURSDAY TO THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  74  52  70  51 /  10  10  10  40  40
BEAVER OK                  51  79  54  77  51 /   0   0   5  40  50
BOISE CITY OK              47  74  49  70  47 /  10  10  10  40  20
BORGER TX                  53  77  55  74  54 /  10   5  10  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              50  75  51  72  50 /  10  10  10  40  30
CANYON TX                  51  74  51  69  50 /  20  10  10  40  40
CLARENDON TX               54  78  52  74  51 /  10  10  10  40  40
DALHART TX                 47  75  50  71  47 /  10  10  10  40  30
GUYMON OK                  50  78  52  75  50 /   5   5   5  40  50
HEREFORD TX                50  73  50  70  49 /  20  10  20  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                52  79  55  75  53 /   0   0   5  40  50
PAMPA TX                   52  77  52  71  51 /  10   5   5  40  40
SHAMROCK TX                53  79  54  75  52 /  10  10  10  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              55  80  56  76  54 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14






000
FXUS64 KEWX 202021
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO
A TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NO POPS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE WEAKENING PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW SHOWN BY ALL MODELS TO REMAIN AN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MID INTO LATE WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS BACK EAST A
LITTLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS FORMER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM AND NO POPS
ARE MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANY
RAINS WILL EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...NO
POPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  84  62  84  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  58  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  58  82  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  83  65  84  65 /  20  30  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  83  60  83  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  85  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  84  58  84  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  85  58  84  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  86  61  85  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  86  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 202021
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO
A TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NO POPS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE WEAKENING PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW SHOWN BY ALL MODELS TO REMAIN AN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MID INTO LATE WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS BACK EAST A
LITTLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS FORMER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM AND NO POPS
ARE MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANY
RAINS WILL EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...NO
POPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  84  62  84  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  58  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  58  82  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  83  65  84  65 /  20  30  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  83  60  83  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  85  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  84  58  84  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  85  58  84  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  86  61  85  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  86  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30








000
FXUS64 KHGX 202006
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
306 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE
REGION THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK /18Z
GOES SOUNDER ESTIMATING 45 TO 50 KT WINDS/ UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE DEPARTS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM SPEEDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE
DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER LAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE RIDGE OVER
TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF NOW RESEMBLING THE GFS IN TERMS OF A
FASTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE TRACK AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF RAIN
CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST TX. AS OF RIGHT NOW...ALL THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS IT PASSES LATE
WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND. THERE/S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WHICH
DAY...SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...WILL BE WARMER. FOR NOW... WILL SIDE
WITH SUNDAY BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

THE BIGGEST FORECASTING CONCERN THIS WEEK CENTERS AROUND MARINE
IMPACTS FROM A DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA... EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS AND INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE THE MARINE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

14

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT (HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA) IS
EXPECTED TO BRING STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS TO THE
AREA. CAUTION FLAGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BEGINNING EITHER
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...AND ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE COULD
ALSO BE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED RETURN TO THE AREA
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      59  84  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  84  61  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  82  70  80  69 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 202006
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
306 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE
REGION THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO HAS DEVELOPED OFFSHORE TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK /18Z
GOES SOUNDER ESTIMATING 45 TO 50 KT WINDS/ UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE DEPARTS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM SPEEDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE
DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER LAND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S.

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE RIDGE OVER
TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF NOW RESEMBLING THE GFS IN TERMS OF A
FASTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE TRACK AND LITTLE IN TERMS OF RAIN
CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST TX. AS OF RIGHT NOW...ALL THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO BRING IS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS IT PASSES LATE
WEDNESDAY/ EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND. THERE/S SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WHICH
DAY...SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...WILL BE WARMER. FOR NOW... WILL SIDE
WITH SUNDAY BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

THE BIGGEST FORECASTING CONCERN THIS WEEK CENTERS AROUND MARINE
IMPACTS FROM A DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
FLORIDA... EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS AND INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE THE MARINE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

14

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT (HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN/AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA) IS
EXPECTED TO BRING STRENGTHENING WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS TO THE
AREA. CAUTION FLAGS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BEGINNING EITHER
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY...AND ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE COULD
ALSO BE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED RETURN TO THE AREA
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      59  84  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  84  61  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  82  70  80  69 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBRO 201954
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.

EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.  /55/

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.

EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK.  WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS.  LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.  STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK.  ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.  STAY TUNED.

ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.  RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT.  IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/


&&

.MARINE...

NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL.  /55/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA.  SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  /53/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  86  74  84 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            70  87  71  85 /  10  20  20  20
MCALLEN              71  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  86  69  86 /  20  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  84  77  84 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... SCHOLL
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
PSU/GRAPHICAST... MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 201954
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.

EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.  /55/

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.

EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK.  WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS.  LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.  STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK.  ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.  STAY TUNED.

ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.  RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT.  IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/


&&

.MARINE...

NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL.  /55/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA.  SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  /53/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  86  74  84 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            70  87  71  85 /  10  20  20  20
MCALLEN              71  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  86  69  86 /  20  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  84  77  84 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... SCHOLL
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
PSU/GRAPHICAST... MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 201954
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.

EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.  /55/

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.

EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK.  WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS.  LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.  STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK.  ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.  STAY TUNED.

ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.  RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT.  IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/


&&

.MARINE...

NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL.  /55/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA.  SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  /53/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  86  74  84 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            70  87  71  85 /  10  20  20  20
MCALLEN              71  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  86  69  86 /  20  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  84  77  84 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... SCHOLL
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
PSU/GRAPHICAST... MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KBRO 201954
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
254 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BRO RADAR BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
`SHOTGUNNED` ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
VALLEY ATTM. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE DIFFLUENCE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MORNING SOUNDING WAS MOIST WITH A PWAT
OF 1.84 INCHES AND DECENT MOISTURE UP TO 500 MB. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WHICH PROGRESSES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE BETTER POPS
NORTH OF THE VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO ZAPATA/STARR COUNTIES AFTER
SUNSET.

EXPECTING A REPEAT OF POPS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONFINED POPS TO
OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GULF WATERS TOWARDS DAWN THEN MOVE THAT
AREA INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE
THE RANCHLANDS TUESDAY AND HAVE TRIMMED POPS OUT OF THE VALLEY UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE 850-700MB LAYER. LESS CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING
OF LL DRY AIR LED ME TO INCREASE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES IN THE VALLEY
TUESDAY WHICH MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AS WELL /3-5 DEGREES OVER GOING
FORECAST/. KEPT HIGHS AS IS NORTH OF THE VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS.  /55/

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WE TURN OFF THE ATMOSPHERIC
SPIGOT.

EYES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A WEAKENING EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING CLOSE TO THE 2 INCH MARK.  WITH A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EMANATING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM THE LOW...I EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING TO BE IN PLACE TO KEEP AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW SHOULD LESSEN AT
MID-WEEK...AS IT STARTS SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES.

AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN AREAS
SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING HOURS.  LOCALES OVER OUR MORE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE ODDS OF SEEING STORMS IN MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE LOW...GIVEN WEAKENING AMOUNTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AT THE
TIME OF DAY WHEN THERE`S A DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY.  STILL
THOUGH...IT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED BY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN PROBLEM...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT MID-WEEK.  ROUGH SWELLS FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONMICAL TIDES TO YIELD THE THREAT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME.  STAY TUNED.

ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE
COMBINATION OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT AND (REALLY) DRIER AIR
MOVES SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.  RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS MID-AMERICA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BY THIS WEEKEND AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THERE`S STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THINGS
DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD THOUGH...AS SOIL MOISTURE
FROM ANY RECENT RAINFALL MAY TEMPER HIGHS JUST A BIT.  IN ADDITION
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

THANKS TO WPC AND WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR COLLABORATION TODAY. /53/


&&

.MARINE...

NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
INCREASING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS OVER THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
SCEC CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS WELL.  /55/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED HEADING INTO MID-WEEK THANKS
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE AREA.  SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS MAY ALLOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DROPPED AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  /53/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  86  74  84 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            70  87  71  85 /  10  20  20  20
MCALLEN              71  88  70  86 /  10  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  86  69  86 /  20  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  84  77  84 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... SCHOLL
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
PSU/GRAPHICAST... MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KFWD 201927
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO RESIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE
CHURNING OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR
US...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS SETUP YIELDS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMING INTO THE 80S.

AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO SLIDES EASTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE
MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO YIELD ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS. HOWEVER... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PROVIDING MORE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER NORTH
TEXAS WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS...MOST DO SHOW SIGNS
OF SOME PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR OUR
RED RIVER COUNTIES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRIEFLY BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BRIEF ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB YET AGAIN INTO THE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON MONDAY. SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SO FAR OUT...HAVE ONLY PUT IN 20 POPS IN FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE.

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT AND SPORADIC
CI/CS. LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT SE TONIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT WACO AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND INTENSIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REGION. NEXT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
THURSDAY.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  83  63  81  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              57  82  61  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             58  81  58  76  52 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            59  82  60  80  55 /  10   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  59  79  54 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            62  83  63  81  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           58  83  60  80  55 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         58  83  60  80  55 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            58  82  60  81  56 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  83  58  79  55 /  10   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 201927
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO RESIDE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE
CHURNING OFF OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FOR
US...HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS SETUP YIELDS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE. AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR OUR AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMING INTO THE 80S.

AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO SLIDES EASTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE
MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING THAT SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO YIELD ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS. HOWEVER... THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...PROVIDING MORE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHETHER NORTH
TEXAS WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS...MOST DO SHOW SIGNS
OF SOME PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN FOR OUR
RED RIVER COUNTIES FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

BY THURSDAY...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BRIEFLY BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE BRIEF ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB YET AGAIN INTO THE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A
STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON MONDAY. SOME RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT
BECAUSE THIS IS SO FAR OUT...HAVE ONLY PUT IN 20 POPS IN FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE.

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT AND SPORADIC
CI/CS. LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT SE TONIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT WACO AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND INTENSIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REGION. NEXT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
THURSDAY.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  83  63  81  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              57  82  61  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             58  81  58  76  52 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            59  82  60  80  55 /  10   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  59  79  54 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            62  83  63  81  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           58  83  60  80  55 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         58  83  60  80  55 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            58  82  60  81  56 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  83  58  79  55 /  10   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMAF 201909
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
209 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite and 12Z RAOB data place an upper low SW of El Paso City
with some minor lead shrtwv energy kicking out into the Trans Pecos.
Hier PW values ridge nwd thru the Trans Pecos from the Lower Rio
Grande Valley, and local heavy rain isn possible. Mid level theta-e
ridge does have trouble moving e and for today/this evening best
PoPs will remain across wrn 1/2 of CWFA. However there`s a
substantial amount of TCU developing across the area currently,
including the PB and in the near term there is an increasing
chance of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise light precip will be possible just
e of the Pecos River tonight as dampening shrtwv trof/s come out.
The upper low will be weakening/filling as it slowly moves e Tue.
This will help set-up the axis of the hier PWs farther e, including
across the PB. Model consensus including HPC QPF is again supporting
best PoPs to be to the w extending from the Davis Mtns into the wrn
PB, possibly central PB. Current grids reflect this pretty well and
will make only minor adjustments. Finally Wed this slow moving trof
axis will be farther e into the PB and this actually may be the day
with the best chance of rain with NAM12 bringing out a well defined
maxima of lift in mid levels. Current PoPs are mostly around 40%
and will opt to increase closer to 50-60%. Thereafter pattern
transitions to ridging aloft Thur-Sat, so above normal temperatures
will return. A dry cold front will possible by next Monday, thus
cooler, but moreso for areas n of I-20.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  70  54  71  /  20  30  40  60
BIG SPRING TX              59  74  56  71  /  20  20  20  50
CARLSBAD NM                57  70  57  75  /  50  50  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  64  73  61  74  /  50  40  40  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  71  57  74  /  40  60  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  66  51  69  /  50  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   56  70  53  67  /  30  40  40  60
MARFA TX                   54  68  50  72  /  50  60  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  73  54  72  /  20  40  40  60
ODESSA TX                  58  72  55  73  /  30  40  40  60
WINK TX                    62  73  59  77  /  40  50  40  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 201909
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
209 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite and 12Z RAOB data place an upper low SW of El Paso City
with some minor lead shrtwv energy kicking out into the Trans Pecos.
Hier PW values ridge nwd thru the Trans Pecos from the Lower Rio
Grande Valley, and local heavy rain isn possible. Mid level theta-e
ridge does have trouble moving e and for today/this evening best
PoPs will remain across wrn 1/2 of CWFA. However there`s a
substantial amount of TCU developing across the area currently,
including the PB and in the near term there is an increasing
chance of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise light precip will be possible just
e of the Pecos River tonight as dampening shrtwv trof/s come out.
The upper low will be weakening/filling as it slowly moves e Tue.
This will help set-up the axis of the hier PWs farther e, including
across the PB. Model consensus including HPC QPF is again supporting
best PoPs to be to the w extending from the Davis Mtns into the wrn
PB, possibly central PB. Current grids reflect this pretty well and
will make only minor adjustments. Finally Wed this slow moving trof
axis will be farther e into the PB and this actually may be the day
with the best chance of rain with NAM12 bringing out a well defined
maxima of lift in mid levels. Current PoPs are mostly around 40%
and will opt to increase closer to 50-60%. Thereafter pattern
transitions to ridging aloft Thur-Sat, so above normal temperatures
will return. A dry cold front will possible by next Monday, thus
cooler, but moreso for areas n of I-20.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  70  54  71  /  20  30  40  60
BIG SPRING TX              59  74  56  71  /  20  20  20  50
CARLSBAD NM                57  70  57  75  /  50  50  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  64  73  61  74  /  50  40  40  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  71  57  74  /  40  60  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  66  51  69  /  50  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   56  70  53  67  /  30  40  40  60
MARFA TX                   54  68  50  72  /  50  60  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  73  54  72  /  20  40  40  60
ODESSA TX                  58  72  55  73  /  30  40  40  60
WINK TX                    62  73  59  77  /  40  50  40  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 201804
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
104 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 20/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mucky forecast out west where a deep moisture layer extending from
the subtropical Pacific up through far west Texas and New Mexico
is interacting with several weak upper level disturbances. All
this and some sunshine in places will mean widespread -SHRA and also
some TSRA where daytime heating helps to create more instability.
After sunset, -SHRA will persist at KCNM, KINK, KPEQ, and KFST
with lesser chances farther east. Low cloudiness may persist at
KHOB and KMAF in the morning, meaning MVFR to IFR conditions
areawide.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Mainly prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the terminals
through this evening with TEMPO MVFR ceilings expected this
morning through 16z. An upper level low pressure area across
northern Mexico will produce the threat of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and west
Texas through tonight. Confidence was high enough to include prob
30 groups this afternoon and this evening for VFR conditions in
TSRA at KINK, KHOB and KCNM with TEMPO VFR conditions in TSRA at
KFST and KPEQ this afternoon and this evening.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show an upper low moving closer and increasing
rain chances, especially west of the Pecos River. Echoes are
decreasing on radar early this morning but should increase again
later today. Some showers could produce brief heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding could be a concern in the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. There is not a lot of movement with the low
so the best rain chances will remain west of Midland through
tomorrow night before finally spreading east on Wednesday.
Unfortunately by that time the low will have weakened so rainfall
amounts will probably not be as high as is expected in the western
CWA.

Most models do not show a front with the passage of the upper low
on Thursday with only the ECMWF showing a weak passage on
Thursday. An upper high does build into the four corners region by
Friday providing northerly upper flow so a weak frontal passage
does not seem out of the question though the only effect may be a
slight wind shift. The current forecast does not have any cooling
behind the front since the upper low is weakening and lifting
northeast, a situation not favorable for surface cold air
advection in west Texas. The high will move out of the four
corners and into Texas over the weekend causing temperatures to
once again rise well above normal.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 201804
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
104 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 20/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mucky forecast out west where a deep moisture layer extending from
the subtropical Pacific up through far west Texas and New Mexico
is interacting with several weak upper level disturbances. All
this and some sunshine in places will mean widespread -SHRA and also
some TSRA where daytime heating helps to create more instability.
After sunset, -SHRA will persist at KCNM, KINK, KPEQ, and KFST
with lesser chances farther east. Low cloudiness may persist at
KHOB and KMAF in the morning, meaning MVFR to IFR conditions
areawide.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Mainly prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the terminals
through this evening with TEMPO MVFR ceilings expected this
morning through 16z. An upper level low pressure area across
northern Mexico will produce the threat of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and west
Texas through tonight. Confidence was high enough to include prob
30 groups this afternoon and this evening for VFR conditions in
TSRA at KINK, KHOB and KCNM with TEMPO VFR conditions in TSRA at
KFST and KPEQ this afternoon and this evening.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show an upper low moving closer and increasing
rain chances, especially west of the Pecos River. Echoes are
decreasing on radar early this morning but should increase again
later today. Some showers could produce brief heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding could be a concern in the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. There is not a lot of movement with the low
so the best rain chances will remain west of Midland through
tomorrow night before finally spreading east on Wednesday.
Unfortunately by that time the low will have weakened so rainfall
amounts will probably not be as high as is expected in the western
CWA.

Most models do not show a front with the passage of the upper low
on Thursday with only the ECMWF showing a weak passage on
Thursday. An upper high does build into the four corners region by
Friday providing northerly upper flow so a weak frontal passage
does not seem out of the question though the only effect may be a
slight wind shift. The current forecast does not have any cooling
behind the front since the upper low is weakening and lifting
northeast, a situation not favorable for surface cold air
advection in west Texas. The high will move out of the four
corners and into Texas over the weekend causing temperatures to
once again rise well above normal.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 201804
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
104 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 20/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mucky forecast out west where a deep moisture layer extending from
the subtropical Pacific up through far west Texas and New Mexico
is interacting with several weak upper level disturbances. All
this and some sunshine in places will mean widespread -SHRA and also
some TSRA where daytime heating helps to create more instability.
After sunset, -SHRA will persist at KCNM, KINK, KPEQ, and KFST
with lesser chances farther east. Low cloudiness may persist at
KHOB and KMAF in the morning, meaning MVFR to IFR conditions
areawide.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Mainly prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the terminals
through this evening with TEMPO MVFR ceilings expected this
morning through 16z. An upper level low pressure area across
northern Mexico will produce the threat of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and west
Texas through tonight. Confidence was high enough to include prob
30 groups this afternoon and this evening for VFR conditions in
TSRA at KINK, KHOB and KCNM with TEMPO VFR conditions in TSRA at
KFST and KPEQ this afternoon and this evening.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show an upper low moving closer and increasing
rain chances, especially west of the Pecos River. Echoes are
decreasing on radar early this morning but should increase again
later today. Some showers could produce brief heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding could be a concern in the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. There is not a lot of movement with the low
so the best rain chances will remain west of Midland through
tomorrow night before finally spreading east on Wednesday.
Unfortunately by that time the low will have weakened so rainfall
amounts will probably not be as high as is expected in the western
CWA.

Most models do not show a front with the passage of the upper low
on Thursday with only the ECMWF showing a weak passage on
Thursday. An upper high does build into the four corners region by
Friday providing northerly upper flow so a weak frontal passage
does not seem out of the question though the only effect may be a
slight wind shift. The current forecast does not have any cooling
behind the front since the upper low is weakening and lifting
northeast, a situation not favorable for surface cold air
advection in west Texas. The high will move out of the four
corners and into Texas over the weekend causing temperatures to
once again rise well above normal.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 201804
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
104 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 20/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mucky forecast out west where a deep moisture layer extending from
the subtropical Pacific up through far west Texas and New Mexico
is interacting with several weak upper level disturbances. All
this and some sunshine in places will mean widespread -SHRA and also
some TSRA where daytime heating helps to create more instability.
After sunset, -SHRA will persist at KCNM, KINK, KPEQ, and KFST
with lesser chances farther east. Low cloudiness may persist at
KHOB and KMAF in the morning, meaning MVFR to IFR conditions
areawide.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Mainly prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the terminals
through this evening with TEMPO MVFR ceilings expected this
morning through 16z. An upper level low pressure area across
northern Mexico will produce the threat of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and west
Texas through tonight. Confidence was high enough to include prob
30 groups this afternoon and this evening for VFR conditions in
TSRA at KINK, KHOB and KCNM with TEMPO VFR conditions in TSRA at
KFST and KPEQ this afternoon and this evening.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show an upper low moving closer and increasing
rain chances, especially west of the Pecos River. Echoes are
decreasing on radar early this morning but should increase again
later today. Some showers could produce brief heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding could be a concern in the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. There is not a lot of movement with the low
so the best rain chances will remain west of Midland through
tomorrow night before finally spreading east on Wednesday.
Unfortunately by that time the low will have weakened so rainfall
amounts will probably not be as high as is expected in the western
CWA.

Most models do not show a front with the passage of the upper low
on Thursday with only the ECMWF showing a weak passage on
Thursday. An upper high does build into the four corners region by
Friday providing northerly upper flow so a weak frontal passage
does not seem out of the question though the only effect may be a
slight wind shift. The current forecast does not have any cooling
behind the front since the upper low is weakening and lifting
northeast, a situation not favorable for surface cold air
advection in west Texas. The high will move out of the four
corners and into Texas over the weekend causing temperatures to
once again rise well above normal.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 201757
AFDSJT
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Although VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites
through the next 24 hours, will monitor the possibility for
patchy light fog and MVFR visibilities early Tuesday morning at
KBBD and KJCT. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and tonight across the far western part of our area
(west of a Sweetwater to Ozona line). On Tuesday, a few showers/
storms will be possible across roughly the same area. With this
in mind, not carrying a mention at KSOA and KSJT, but will monitor
radar and satellite trends with the approaching disturbance aloft.
Variable cloud cover is expected, with a VFR cumulus field
developing this afternoon, and some increase in high and middle cloud
coverage from the southwest late tonight into Tuesday. Winds are
expected to remain under 10KT this afternoon through Tuesday morning.
The predominant direction will be from the southeast.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

CRD

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene          81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo       81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction         81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KSJT 201757 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Although VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites
through the next 24 hours, will monitor the possibility for
patchy light fog and MVFR visibilities early Tuesday morning at
KBBD and KJCT. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and tonight across the far western part of our area
(west of a Sweetwater to Ozona line). On Tuesday, a few showers/
storms will be possible across roughly the same area. With this
in mind, not carrying a mention at KSOA and KSJT, but will monitor
radar and satellite trends with the approaching disturbance aloft.
Variable cloud cover is expected, with a VFR cumulus field
developing this afternoon, and some increase in high and middle cloud
coverage from the southwest late tonight into Tuesday. Winds are
expected to remain under 10KT this afternoon through Tuesday morning.
The predominant direction will be from the southeast.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

CRD

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 201757 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Although VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites
through the next 24 hours, will monitor the possibility for
patchy light fog and MVFR visibilities early Tuesday morning at
KBBD and KJCT. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and tonight across the far western part of our area
(west of a Sweetwater to Ozona line). On Tuesday, a few showers/
storms will be possible across roughly the same area. With this
in mind, not carrying a mention at KSOA and KSJT, but will monitor
radar and satellite trends with the approaching disturbance aloft.
Variable cloud cover is expected, with a VFR cumulus field
developing this afternoon, and some increase in high and middle cloud
coverage from the southwest late tonight into Tuesday. Winds are
expected to remain under 10KT this afternoon through Tuesday morning.
The predominant direction will be from the southeast.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

CRD

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 201757 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Although VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites
through the next 24 hours, will monitor the possibility for
patchy light fog and MVFR visibilities early Tuesday morning at
KBBD and KJCT. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and tonight across the far western part of our area
(west of a Sweetwater to Ozona line). On Tuesday, a few showers/
storms will be possible across roughly the same area. With this
in mind, not carrying a mention at KSOA and KSJT, but will monitor
radar and satellite trends with the approaching disturbance aloft.
Variable cloud cover is expected, with a VFR cumulus field
developing this afternoon, and some increase in high and middle cloud
coverage from the southwest late tonight into Tuesday. Winds are
expected to remain under 10KT this afternoon through Tuesday morning.
The predominant direction will be from the southeast.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

CRD

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSJT 201757 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Although VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites
through the next 24 hours, will monitor the possibility for
patchy light fog and MVFR visibilities early Tuesday morning at
KBBD and KJCT. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and tonight across the far western part of our area
(west of a Sweetwater to Ozona line). On Tuesday, a few showers/
storms will be possible across roughly the same area. With this
in mind, not carrying a mention at KSOA and KSJT, but will monitor
radar and satellite trends with the approaching disturbance aloft.
Variable cloud cover is expected, with a VFR cumulus field
developing this afternoon, and some increase in high and middle cloud
coverage from the southwest late tonight into Tuesday. Winds are
expected to remain under 10KT this afternoon through Tuesday morning.
The predominant direction will be from the southeast.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

CRD

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KCRP 201742
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND HAS LEAD TO
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE CRP TAF SITE. RADAR INDICATED
THAT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION IS INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD ALI
AND LRD. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
CRP...ALI AND LRD. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
STRATUS DECK AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG DVLP. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PUSH FARTHER S INTO THE CWA ON TUE RESULTING IN ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS S TX BY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
ON TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHRA`S CURRENTLY MOVG ONSHORE FROM NEAR
BAFFIN BAY TO JUST NORTH OF ROCKPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWING THE BETTER CAPE AND LEAST CIN VALUES ALONG THE COAST
SOUTHWARD TO BRO`S AREA. THE INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO INCREASE
FARTHER W THRU THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS BY A CATEGORY
FOR REFUGIO...ARANSAS AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT/KALI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MRNG. VFR AT KCRP/KLRD TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU MID MRNG AT KLRD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THRU THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...ISO TO SCT SHRA MAY IMPACT KCRP AND KALI THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ATTM FEEL THAT MAIN THREAT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE DRNG MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MOST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF SHRA OCCRNG MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
DISSIPATES WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR VSBYS DVLP...PRIMARILY AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. NERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS BECOMING MORE ERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 201742
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND HAS LEAD TO
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE CRP TAF SITE. RADAR INDICATED
THAT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION IS INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD ALI
AND LRD. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
CRP...ALI AND LRD. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
STRATUS DECK AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG DVLP. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PUSH FARTHER S INTO THE CWA ON TUE RESULTING IN ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS S TX BY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
ON TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHRA`S CURRENTLY MOVG ONSHORE FROM NEAR
BAFFIN BAY TO JUST NORTH OF ROCKPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWING THE BETTER CAPE AND LEAST CIN VALUES ALONG THE COAST
SOUTHWARD TO BRO`S AREA. THE INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO INCREASE
FARTHER W THRU THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS BY A CATEGORY
FOR REFUGIO...ARANSAS AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT/KALI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MRNG. VFR AT KCRP/KLRD TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU MID MRNG AT KLRD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THRU THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...ISO TO SCT SHRA MAY IMPACT KCRP AND KALI THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ATTM FEEL THAT MAIN THREAT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE DRNG MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MOST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF SHRA OCCRNG MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
DISSIPATES WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR VSBYS DVLP...PRIMARILY AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. NERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS BECOMING MORE ERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 201742
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND HAS LEAD TO
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE CRP TAF SITE. RADAR INDICATED
THAT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION IS INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD ALI
AND LRD. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
CRP...ALI AND LRD. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
STRATUS DECK AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG DVLP. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PUSH FARTHER S INTO THE CWA ON TUE RESULTING IN ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS S TX BY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
ON TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHRA`S CURRENTLY MOVG ONSHORE FROM NEAR
BAFFIN BAY TO JUST NORTH OF ROCKPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWING THE BETTER CAPE AND LEAST CIN VALUES ALONG THE COAST
SOUTHWARD TO BRO`S AREA. THE INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO INCREASE
FARTHER W THRU THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS BY A CATEGORY
FOR REFUGIO...ARANSAS AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT/KALI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MRNG. VFR AT KCRP/KLRD TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU MID MRNG AT KLRD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THRU THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...ISO TO SCT SHRA MAY IMPACT KCRP AND KALI THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ATTM FEEL THAT MAIN THREAT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE DRNG MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MOST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF SHRA OCCRNG MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
DISSIPATES WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR VSBYS DVLP...PRIMARILY AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. NERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS BECOMING MORE ERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 201742
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND HAS LEAD TO
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE CRP TAF SITE. RADAR INDICATED
THAT ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION IS INCREASING FARTHER WEST TOWARD ALI
AND LRD. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR...CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
CRP...ALI AND LRD. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
STRATUS DECK AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG DVLP. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PUSH FARTHER S INTO THE CWA ON TUE RESULTING IN ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS S TX BY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
ON TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHRA`S CURRENTLY MOVG ONSHORE FROM NEAR
BAFFIN BAY TO JUST NORTH OF ROCKPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWING THE BETTER CAPE AND LEAST CIN VALUES ALONG THE COAST
SOUTHWARD TO BRO`S AREA. THE INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO INCREASE
FARTHER W THRU THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS BY A CATEGORY
FOR REFUGIO...ARANSAS AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT/KALI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MRNG. VFR AT KCRP/KLRD TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU MID MRNG AT KLRD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THRU THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...ISO TO SCT SHRA MAY IMPACT KCRP AND KALI THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ATTM FEEL THAT MAIN THREAT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE DRNG MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MOST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF SHRA OCCRNG MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
DISSIPATES WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR VSBYS DVLP...PRIMARILY AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. NERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS BECOMING MORE ERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  30  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KEWX 201729
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE POOLED OVER THE RIO GRANDE LEADING TO
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH CIGS RISING AT DRT...ALL
4 OF THE TERMINALS ARE VFR AT THIS HOUR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO LESS MOISTURE RETURN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME STRATUS THAT FORMS IT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. NUMERICAL MODELS AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORT
CIGS REMAINING VFR AT THE I-35 TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING.

DRT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS FORECAST AT DRT AROUND 08Z
TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OR THINKING OVER THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACROSS
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE
FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA...AND THE MOISTURE AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY WEST FROM WHERE IT IS TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED POPS FORECAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION IS WINNING OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CMC ARE NO
LONGER SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AND NOW SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS EVEN
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE APPEARS
RATHER LIMITED...AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING.
GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  83  61  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  83  55  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  86  57  86 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  59  83  59  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  85  53  86 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  58  84  56  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  64  86  61  87 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  86  58  87 /  10  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 201729
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE POOLED OVER THE RIO GRANDE LEADING TO
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH CIGS RISING AT DRT...ALL
4 OF THE TERMINALS ARE VFR AT THIS HOUR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO LESS MOISTURE RETURN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME STRATUS THAT FORMS IT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. NUMERICAL MODELS AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORT
CIGS REMAINING VFR AT THE I-35 TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING.

DRT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS FORECAST AT DRT AROUND 08Z
TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OR THINKING OVER THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACROSS
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE
FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA...AND THE MOISTURE AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY WEST FROM WHERE IT IS TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED POPS FORECAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION IS WINNING OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CMC ARE NO
LONGER SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AND NOW SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS EVEN
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE APPEARS
RATHER LIMITED...AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING.
GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  83  61  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  83  55  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  86  57  86 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  59  83  59  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  85  53  86 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  58  84  56  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  64  86  61  87 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  86  58  87 /  10  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 201729
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE POOLED OVER THE RIO GRANDE LEADING TO
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH CIGS RISING AT DRT...ALL
4 OF THE TERMINALS ARE VFR AT THIS HOUR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO LESS MOISTURE RETURN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME STRATUS THAT FORMS IT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. NUMERICAL MODELS AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORT
CIGS REMAINING VFR AT THE I-35 TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING.

DRT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS FORECAST AT DRT AROUND 08Z
TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OR THINKING OVER THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACROSS
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE
FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA...AND THE MOISTURE AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY WEST FROM WHERE IT IS TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED POPS FORECAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION IS WINNING OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CMC ARE NO
LONGER SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AND NOW SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS EVEN
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE APPEARS
RATHER LIMITED...AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING.
GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  83  61  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  83  55  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  86  57  86 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  59  83  59  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  85  53  86 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  58  84  56  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  64  86  61  87 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  86  58  87 /  10  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 201729
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE POOLED OVER THE RIO GRANDE LEADING TO
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH CIGS RISING AT DRT...ALL
4 OF THE TERMINALS ARE VFR AT THIS HOUR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO LESS MOISTURE RETURN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME STRATUS THAT FORMS IT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. NUMERICAL MODELS AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SUPPORT
CIGS REMAINING VFR AT THE I-35 TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING.

DRT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS FORECAST AT DRT AROUND 08Z
TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OR THINKING OVER THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACROSS
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE
FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA...AND THE MOISTURE AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY WEST FROM WHERE IT IS TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED POPS FORECAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION IS WINNING OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CMC ARE NO
LONGER SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AND NOW SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS EVEN
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE APPEARS
RATHER LIMITED...AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING.
GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  83  61  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  83  55  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  86  57  86 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  59  83  59  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  85  53  86 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  58  84  56  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  64  86  61  87 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  86  58  87 /  10  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KFWD 201727 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE.

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT AND SPORADIC
CI/CS. LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT SE TONIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT WACO AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND INTENSIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REGION. NEXT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
THURSDAY.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWNWARD FOR THE MORNING AND ISSUED NEW
GRIDS AND ZFPFWD.  75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK
AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES UP
ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO MODELS LEADS US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED AND
TO TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER UNTIL
NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/75






000
FXUS64 KFWD 201727 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE.

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT AND SPORADIC
CI/CS. LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT SE TONIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT WACO AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND INTENSIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REGION. NEXT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
THURSDAY.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWNWARD FOR THE MORNING AND ISSUED NEW
GRIDS AND ZFPFWD.  75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK
AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES UP
ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO MODELS LEADS US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED AND
TO TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER UNTIL
NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/75





000
FXUS64 KFWD 201727
AFDFWD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE.

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT AND SPORADIC
CI/CS. LIGHT SSW WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT SE TONIGHT. BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT WACO AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND INTENSIFYING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REGION. NEXT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
THURSDAY.

05/

&&

.UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWNWARD FOR THE MORNING AND ISSUED NEW
GRIDS AND ZFPFWD.  75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK
AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES UP
ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO MODELS LEADS US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED AND
TO TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER UNTIL
NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/75







000
FXUS64 KLUB 201726 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS AND SHOULD REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KLBB TERMINAL BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. CONFIDENCE WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN KLBB
TAF AT THIS TIME. SECOND ISSUE WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AT KLBB
TUESDAY MORNING. IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
TERMINAL...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS
POSSIBILITY IS ALSO TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KLBB WHILE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT
KCDS...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO 9 MILES AND WITH A FEW
SITES EAST OF THE SAID TERMINAL NEARING VFR FOG...IT IS A
POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...MVFR CLOUD DECKS ARE
ALSO A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE
INSERTED A FEW MENTION FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL EXPECT THE FOG AND
ANY LOW CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING
AT KLBB. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INSERT A MENTION AT THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OCCURRENCE HAS NOT HAPPENED THIS MORNING THUS
FAR. BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR LATER
TAF CYCLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A CLOSED UA LOW WAS PROPAGATING EWRD ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AIDING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SUCH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED BY 10 DEGREES /IN THE 50S/ SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THUS MAKING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/FOG
MORE OF A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
SCOURING LOW CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...THOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ENSUE. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UA LOW NOT
CHANGING MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY /REMAINING SOUTH OF AZ AND
NM/...COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES /MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY THE AFTN/
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

MEANWHILE AN UA TROUGH DIVING ESE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING WILL SEND DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTN...WHERE IT IS POISED TO STALL BEFORE RETREATING NORTH TONIGHT.
THE NAM AND A FEW HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS HINT AT PRECIP DEVELOPING
NEAR THIS FRONT...POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT FOR SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR/MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NRN SOUTH PLAINS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /70S AND
80S/ DUE TO A QUICKER DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG /UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S/ GIVEN A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
00Z WRF-NAM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...ITS TIMING AND EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MUCH DRIER.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS ATTM WITH THE ONLY
MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SPEED UP ONSET AND ENDING OF PRECIP
BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRICKIEST OF THE
WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY WRN AND CNTL PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA.

BEFORE THEN...PRECIP TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR THE SWRN ZONES
AS THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE STRONGER
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT POINT TO BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
BUT WITH A CHANCE OF IT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS THE WRN PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

AFTERWARDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FOR LATE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE MULK OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. WILL THUS PERSIST WITH A DRY AND MILD FCST NUDGING
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  49  71  51  67 /  20  20  10  30  50
TULIA         76  51  74  51  70 /  20  20  10  10  50
PLAINVIEW     75  52  72  53  69 /  30  20  10  10  50
LEVELLAND     75  52  71  53  69 /  40  20  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       77  54  73  54  69 /  30  20  10  20  50
DENVER CITY   74  53  70  54  69 /  40  30  30  30  50
BROWNFIELD    75  53  71  54  70 /  40  20  20  20  50
CHILDRESS     84  55  80  56  74 /  20  10  10  10  30
SPUR          79  55  76  56  73 /  20  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     84  56  78  55  77 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLUB 201726 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS AND SHOULD REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KLBB TERMINAL BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. CONFIDENCE WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN KLBB
TAF AT THIS TIME. SECOND ISSUE WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AT KLBB
TUESDAY MORNING. IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
TERMINAL...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS
POSSIBILITY IS ALSO TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KLBB WHILE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT
KCDS...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO 9 MILES AND WITH A FEW
SITES EAST OF THE SAID TERMINAL NEARING VFR FOG...IT IS A
POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...MVFR CLOUD DECKS ARE
ALSO A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE
INSERTED A FEW MENTION FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL EXPECT THE FOG AND
ANY LOW CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING
AT KLBB. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INSERT A MENTION AT THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OCCURRENCE HAS NOT HAPPENED THIS MORNING THUS
FAR. BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR LATER
TAF CYCLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A CLOSED UA LOW WAS PROPAGATING EWRD ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AIDING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SUCH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED BY 10 DEGREES /IN THE 50S/ SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THUS MAKING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/FOG
MORE OF A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
SCOURING LOW CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...THOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ENSUE. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UA LOW NOT
CHANGING MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY /REMAINING SOUTH OF AZ AND
NM/...COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES /MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY THE AFTN/
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

MEANWHILE AN UA TROUGH DIVING ESE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING WILL SEND DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTN...WHERE IT IS POISED TO STALL BEFORE RETREATING NORTH TONIGHT.
THE NAM AND A FEW HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS HINT AT PRECIP DEVELOPING
NEAR THIS FRONT...POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT FOR SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR/MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NRN SOUTH PLAINS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /70S AND
80S/ DUE TO A QUICKER DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG /UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S/ GIVEN A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
00Z WRF-NAM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...ITS TIMING AND EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MUCH DRIER.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS ATTM WITH THE ONLY
MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SPEED UP ONSET AND ENDING OF PRECIP
BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRICKIEST OF THE
WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY WRN AND CNTL PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA.

BEFORE THEN...PRECIP TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR THE SWRN ZONES
AS THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE STRONGER
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT POINT TO BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
BUT WITH A CHANCE OF IT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS THE WRN PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

AFTERWARDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FOR LATE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE MULK OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. WILL THUS PERSIST WITH A DRY AND MILD FCST NUDGING
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  49  71  51  67 /  20  20  10  30  50
TULIA         76  51  74  51  70 /  20  20  10  10  50
PLAINVIEW     75  52  72  53  69 /  30  20  10  10  50
LEVELLAND     75  52  71  53  69 /  40  20  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       77  54  73  54  69 /  30  20  10  20  50
DENVER CITY   74  53  70  54  69 /  40  30  30  30  50
BROWNFIELD    75  53  71  54  70 /  40  20  20  20  50
CHILDRESS     84  55  80  56  74 /  20  10  10  10  30
SPUR          79  55  76  56  73 /  20  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     84  56  78  55  77 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLUB 201726
AFDLUB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS AND SHOULD REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KLBB TERMINAL BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN. CONFIDENCE WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN KLBB
TAF AT THIS TIME. SECOND ISSUE WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AT KLBB
TUESDAY MORNING. IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
TERMINAL...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS
POSSIBILITY IS ALSO TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KLBB WHILE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT
KCDS...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO 9 MILES AND WITH A FEW
SITES EAST OF THE SAID TERMINAL NEARING VFR FOG...IT IS A
POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...MVFR CLOUD DECKS ARE
ALSO A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE
INSERTED A FEW MENTION FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL EXPECT THE FOG AND
ANY LOW CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING
AT KLBB. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INSERT A MENTION AT THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OCCURRENCE HAS NOT HAPPENED THIS MORNING THUS
FAR. BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR LATER
TAF CYCLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A CLOSED UA LOW WAS PROPAGATING EWRD ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AIDING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SUCH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED BY 10 DEGREES /IN THE 50S/ SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THUS MAKING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/FOG
MORE OF A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
SCOURING LOW CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...THOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ENSUE. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UA LOW NOT
CHANGING MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY /REMAINING SOUTH OF AZ AND
NM/...COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES /MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY THE AFTN/
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

MEANWHILE AN UA TROUGH DIVING ESE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING WILL SEND DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTN...WHERE IT IS POISED TO STALL BEFORE RETREATING NORTH TONIGHT.
THE NAM AND A FEW HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS HINT AT PRECIP DEVELOPING
NEAR THIS FRONT...POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT FOR SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR/MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NRN SOUTH PLAINS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /70S AND
80S/ DUE TO A QUICKER DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG /UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S/ GIVEN A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
00Z WRF-NAM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...ITS TIMING AND EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MUCH DRIER.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS ATTM WITH THE ONLY
MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SPEED UP ONSET AND ENDING OF PRECIP
BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRICKIEST OF THE
WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY WRN AND CNTL PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA.

BEFORE THEN...PRECIP TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR THE SWRN ZONES
AS THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE STRONGER
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT POINT TO BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
BUT WITH A CHANCE OF IT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS THE WRN PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

AFTERWARDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FOR LATE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE MULK OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. WILL THUS PERSIST WITH A DRY AND MILD FCST NUDGING
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  49  71  51  67 /  20  20  10  30  50
TULIA         76  51  74  51  70 /  20  20  10  10  50
PLAINVIEW     75  52  72  53  69 /  30  20  10  10  50
LEVELLAND     75  52  71  53  69 /  40  20  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       77  54  73  54  69 /  30  20  10  20  50
DENVER CITY   74  53  70  54  69 /  40  30  30  30  50
BROWNFIELD    75  53  71  54  70 /  40  20  20  20  50
CHILDRESS     84  55  80  56  74 /  20  10  10  10  30
SPUR          79  55  76  56  73 /  20  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     84  56  78  55  77 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KBRO 201724
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON SHRA IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS AND EVEN LESS CONFIDENCE ON TS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A `SHOTGUN` OF SORTS PRECIPITATION ACROSS
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TERMINALS. THEREFORE...HAVE PULLED TEMPO OUT OF ALL TAFS
AND REPLACED WITH VCSH. BELIEVE THAT IF ANY SHRA DOES IMPACT A
TERMINAL IT WILL BE QUICK AND LIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
PRECIPITATION...SHOULD BE VFR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH PASSING STRATUS THROUGH THE AERODROMES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF KENEDY COUNTY PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
CLOSE TO THE TERMINALS BUT DO EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING
INTO THE AREA DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY
WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THIS TWO FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOWS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE BAY
WHILE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE HUGS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MX AND S TX.
AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT THE EASTERLY
FLOW TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING DEEP MOISTURE INLAND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT KEEPS
INCREASING. THE PWATS INCREASE TO 1.90 INCHES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS THE
WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST BUT SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE...COMBINED
WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
AND PLACE THE BRO CWFA IN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND MAY NEED TO
BE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS...SINCE
LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MEANDERING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH
MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS...IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE IN CONTROL.

COASTAL FLOODING...THE RISK FOR MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL (1.5 TO 2 FEET) ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. AN INCREASED HAZARD
OF DRIVING ON THE BEACH AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE TWO MAIN HAZARDS ON LAND...WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IN THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55





000
FXUS64 KHGX 201720
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH GENERALLY ENE 5-10
KNOT WINDS. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND TO THE SOUTH
WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS...AND THIS COULD BRING GLS...LBX...AND
MAYBE SGR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL WATCH
CLOSELY AND AMEND IF NEEDED. TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST SOME
CIRRUS. TOMORROW LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING RADAR TRENDS SHOWED ISOLATED...SLOW MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY
STRETCHING FROM THE GULF WEST INTO ARANSAS...CALHOUN...AND REFUGIO
COUNTIES. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED THIS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH A 50-55 KT 250 MB JET... WITH GPS-MET PWATS
IN THIS AREA AROUND 1.4-1.6 INCHES /COMPARED TO 0.8 INCHES NEAR
THE HOUSTON METRO/. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES DEVELOPING ISOLATED
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  84  60  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  84  61  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  69  82  70  80 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 201720
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH GENERALLY ENE 5-10
KNOT WINDS. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND TO THE SOUTH
WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS...AND THIS COULD BRING GLS...LBX...AND
MAYBE SGR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL WATCH
CLOSELY AND AMEND IF NEEDED. TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST SOME
CIRRUS. TOMORROW LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING RADAR TRENDS SHOWED ISOLATED...SLOW MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY
STRETCHING FROM THE GULF WEST INTO ARANSAS...CALHOUN...AND REFUGIO
COUNTIES. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED THIS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH A 50-55 KT 250 MB JET... WITH GPS-MET PWATS
IN THIS AREA AROUND 1.4-1.6 INCHES /COMPARED TO 0.8 INCHES NEAR
THE HOUSTON METRO/. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES DEVELOPING ISOLATED
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  84  60  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  84  61  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  69  82  70  80 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 201720
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH GENERALLY ENE 5-10
KNOT WINDS. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND TO THE SOUTH
WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS...AND THIS COULD BRING GLS...LBX...AND
MAYBE SGR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL WATCH
CLOSELY AND AMEND IF NEEDED. TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST SOME
CIRRUS. TOMORROW LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING RADAR TRENDS SHOWED ISOLATED...SLOW MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY
STRETCHING FROM THE GULF WEST INTO ARANSAS...CALHOUN...AND REFUGIO
COUNTIES. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED THIS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH A 50-55 KT 250 MB JET... WITH GPS-MET PWATS
IN THIS AREA AROUND 1.4-1.6 INCHES /COMPARED TO 0.8 INCHES NEAR
THE HOUSTON METRO/. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES DEVELOPING ISOLATED
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  84  60  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  84  61  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  69  82  70  80 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KHGX 201720
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH GENERALLY ENE 5-10
KNOT WINDS. SOME CU IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND TO THE SOUTH
WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS...AND THIS COULD BRING GLS...LBX...AND
MAYBE SGR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL WATCH
CLOSELY AND AMEND IF NEEDED. TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST SOME
CIRRUS. TOMORROW LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING RADAR TRENDS SHOWED ISOLATED...SLOW MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY
STRETCHING FROM THE GULF WEST INTO ARANSAS...CALHOUN...AND REFUGIO
COUNTIES. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED THIS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH A 50-55 KT 250 MB JET... WITH GPS-MET PWATS
IN THIS AREA AROUND 1.4-1.6 INCHES /COMPARED TO 0.8 INCHES NEAR
THE HOUSTON METRO/. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES DEVELOPING ISOLATED
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  84  60  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  84  61  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  69  82  70  80 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42




000
FXUS64 KAMA 201638 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1138 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST AND
THEY WILL VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TO SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG AT THE AMA TAF SITE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT INSERTED THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE TAF JUST YET AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 14Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY AT KAMA AND KDHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

FOR TODAY...INSERTED PATCHY FOG ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL TIL
MID MORNING BASED ON CURERNT OBSERVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO MAY SEND A MINOR VORT LOBE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SW AND SCNTRL
PART OF THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CAUSE AT
LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AREA DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE PLAUSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WRN US UPPER LEVEL TROF...WHICH
IS NOW PROGGED BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TO BE FASTER MOVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE WED AND EARLY WED
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT.
HAVE DONE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR SW
TX PNHDL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER SEEN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXIST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANDRADE/BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14





000
FXUS64 KAMA 201638 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1138 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST AND
THEY WILL VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TO SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG AT THE AMA TAF SITE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT INSERTED THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE TAF JUST YET AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 14Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY AT KAMA AND KDHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

FOR TODAY...INSERTED PATCHY FOG ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL TIL
MID MORNING BASED ON CURERNT OBSERVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO MAY SEND A MINOR VORT LOBE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SW AND SCNTRL
PART OF THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CAUSE AT
LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AREA DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE PLAUSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WRN US UPPER LEVEL TROF...WHICH
IS NOW PROGGED BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TO BE FASTER MOVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE WED AND EARLY WED
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT.
HAVE DONE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR SW
TX PNHDL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER SEEN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXIST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANDRADE/BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14





000
FXUS64 KAMA 201638 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1138 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST AND
THEY WILL VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TO SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG AT THE AMA TAF SITE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT INSERTED THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE TAF JUST YET AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 14Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY AT KAMA AND KDHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

FOR TODAY...INSERTED PATCHY FOG ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL TIL
MID MORNING BASED ON CURERNT OBSERVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO MAY SEND A MINOR VORT LOBE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SW AND SCNTRL
PART OF THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CAUSE AT
LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AREA DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE PLAUSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WRN US UPPER LEVEL TROF...WHICH
IS NOW PROGGED BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TO BE FASTER MOVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE WED AND EARLY WED
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT.
HAVE DONE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR SW
TX PNHDL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER SEEN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXIST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANDRADE/BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14





000
FXUS64 KAMA 201638 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1138 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST AND
THEY WILL VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TO SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG AT THE AMA TAF SITE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT INSERTED THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE TAF JUST YET AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 14Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY AT KAMA AND KDHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

FOR TODAY...INSERTED PATCHY FOG ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL TIL
MID MORNING BASED ON CURERNT OBSERVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO MAY SEND A MINOR VORT LOBE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SW AND SCNTRL
PART OF THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CAUSE AT
LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AREA DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE PLAUSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WRN US UPPER LEVEL TROF...WHICH
IS NOW PROGGED BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TO BE FASTER MOVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE WED AND EARLY WED
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT.
HAVE DONE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR SW
TX PNHDL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER SEEN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXIST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANDRADE/BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14





000
FXUS64 KHGX 201526
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1026 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING RADAR TRENDS SHOWED ISOLATED...SLOW MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY
STRETCHING FROM THE GULF WEST INTO ARANSAS...CALHOUN...AND REFUGIO
COUNTIES. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED THIS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH A 50-55 KT 250 MB JET... WITH GPS-MET PWATS
IN THIS AREA AROUND 1.4-1.6 INCHES /COMPARED TO 0.8 INCHES NEAR
THE HOUSTON METRO/. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES DEVELOPING ISOLATED
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  84  60  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  84  61  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  69  82  70  80 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 201526
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1026 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING RADAR TRENDS SHOWED ISOLATED...SLOW MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY
STRETCHING FROM THE GULF WEST INTO ARANSAS...CALHOUN...AND REFUGIO
COUNTIES. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED THIS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH A 50-55 KT 250 MB JET... WITH GPS-MET PWATS
IN THIS AREA AROUND 1.4-1.6 INCHES /COMPARED TO 0.8 INCHES NEAR
THE HOUSTON METRO/. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES DEVELOPING ISOLATED
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE RESIDES. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  84  60  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  84  61  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  69  82  70  80 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KCRP 201355
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
855 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHRA`S CURRENTLY MOVG ONSHORE FROM NEAR
BAFFIN BAY TO JUST NORTH OF ROCKPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWING THE BETTER CAPE AND LEAST CIN VALUES ALONG THE COAST
SOUTHWARD TO BRO`S AREA. THE INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO INCREASE
FARTHER W THRU THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS BY A CATEGORY
FOR REFUGIO...ARANSAS AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT/KALI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MRNG. VFR AT KCRP/KLRD TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU MID MRNG AT KLRD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THRU THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...ISO TO SCT SHRA MAY IMPACT KCRP AND KALI THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ATTM FEEL THAT MAIN THREAT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE DRNG MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MOST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF SHRA OCCRNG MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
DISSIPATES WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR VSBYS DVLP...PRIMARILY AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. NERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS BECOMING MORE ERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 201355
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
855 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHRA`S CURRENTLY MOVG ONSHORE FROM NEAR
BAFFIN BAY TO JUST NORTH OF ROCKPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWING THE BETTER CAPE AND LEAST CIN VALUES ALONG THE COAST
SOUTHWARD TO BRO`S AREA. THE INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO INCREASE
FARTHER W THRU THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS BY A CATEGORY
FOR REFUGIO...ARANSAS AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT/KALI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MRNG. VFR AT KCRP/KLRD TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU MID MRNG AT KLRD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THRU THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...ISO TO SCT SHRA MAY IMPACT KCRP AND KALI THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ATTM FEEL THAT MAIN THREAT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE DRNG MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MOST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF SHRA OCCRNG MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
DISSIPATES WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR VSBYS DVLP...PRIMARILY AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. NERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS BECOMING MORE ERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 201355
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
855 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHRA`S CURRENTLY MOVG ONSHORE FROM NEAR
BAFFIN BAY TO JUST NORTH OF ROCKPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWING THE BETTER CAPE AND LEAST CIN VALUES ALONG THE COAST
SOUTHWARD TO BRO`S AREA. THE INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO INCREASE
FARTHER W THRU THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS BY A CATEGORY
FOR REFUGIO...ARANSAS AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT/KALI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MRNG. VFR AT KCRP/KLRD TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU MID MRNG AT KLRD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THRU THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...ISO TO SCT SHRA MAY IMPACT KCRP AND KALI THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ATTM FEEL THAT MAIN THREAT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE DRNG MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MOST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF SHRA OCCRNG MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
DISSIPATES WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR VSBYS DVLP...PRIMARILY AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. NERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS BECOMING MORE ERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 201355
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
855 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHRA`S CURRENTLY MOVG ONSHORE FROM NEAR
BAFFIN BAY TO JUST NORTH OF ROCKPORT THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWING THE BETTER CAPE AND LEAST CIN VALUES ALONG THE COAST
SOUTHWARD TO BRO`S AREA. THE INSTABILITY IS PROGD TO INCREASE
FARTHER W THRU THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS BY A CATEGORY
FOR REFUGIO...ARANSAS AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT/KALI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MRNG. VFR AT KCRP/KLRD TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU MID MRNG AT KLRD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THRU THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...ISO TO SCT SHRA MAY IMPACT KCRP AND KALI THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ATTM FEEL THAT MAIN THREAT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE DRNG MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MOST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF SHRA OCCRNG MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
DISSIPATES WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR VSBYS DVLP...PRIMARILY AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. NERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS BECOMING MORE ERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KFWD 201229
AFDFWD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014


.UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWNWARD FOR THE MORNING AND ISSUED NEW
GRIDS AND ZFPFWD.  75

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.  79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK
AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES UP
ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO MODELS LEADS US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED AND
TO TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER UNTIL
NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75










000
FXUS64 KFWD 201229 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014


.UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWNWARD FOR THE MORNING AND ISSUED NEW
GRIDS AND ZFPFWD.  75

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.  79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK
AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES UP
ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO MODELS LEADS US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED AND
TO TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER UNTIL
NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75








000
FXUS64 KFWD 201229 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014


.UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWNWARD FOR THE MORNING AND ISSUED NEW
GRIDS AND ZFPFWD.  75

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.  79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK
AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES UP
ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO MODELS LEADS US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED AND
TO TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER UNTIL
NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75








000
FXUS64 KFWD 201229 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014


.UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWNWARD FOR THE MORNING AND ISSUED NEW
GRIDS AND ZFPFWD.  75

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.  79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK
AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES UP
ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO MODELS LEADS US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED AND
TO TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER UNTIL
NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75








000
FXUS64 KFWD 201229 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014


.UPDATE...

HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWNWARD FOR THE MORNING AND ISSUED NEW
GRIDS AND ZFPFWD.  75

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.  79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK
AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH...APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES UP
ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST UPPER LOW
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO MODELS LEADS US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED AND
TO TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER UNTIL
NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75








000
FXUS64 KAMA 201158 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
658 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 14Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY AT KAMA AND KDHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME.

KNS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

FOR TODAY...INSERTED PATCHY FOG ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL TIL
MID MORNING BASED ON CURERNT OBSERVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO MAY SEND A MINOR VORT LOBE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SW AND SCNTRL
PART OF THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CAUSE AT
LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AREA DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE PLAUSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WRN US UPPER LEVEL TROF...WHICH
IS NOW PROGGED BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TO BE FASTER MOVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE WED AND EARLY WED
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT.
HAVE DONE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR SW
TX PNHDL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER SEEN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXIST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANDRADE/BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 201158 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
658 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 14Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY AT KAMA AND KDHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME.

KNS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

FOR TODAY...INSERTED PATCHY FOG ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL TIL
MID MORNING BASED ON CURERNT OBSERVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO MAY SEND A MINOR VORT LOBE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SW AND SCNTRL
PART OF THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CAUSE AT
LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AREA DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE PLAUSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WRN US UPPER LEVEL TROF...WHICH
IS NOW PROGGED BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TO BE FASTER MOVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE WED AND EARLY WED
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT.
HAVE DONE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR SW
TX PNHDL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER SEEN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXIST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANDRADE/BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KBRO 201142
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
642 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF KENEDY COUNTY PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
CLOSE TO THE TERMINALS BUT DO EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING
INTO THE AREA DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY
WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THIS TWO FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOWS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE BAY
WHILE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE HUGS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MX AND S TX.
AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT THE EASTERLY
FLOW TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING DEEP MOISTURE INLAND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT KEEPS
INCREASING. THE PWATS INCREASE TO 1.90 INCHES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS THE
WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST BUT SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE...COMBINED
WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
AND PLACE THE BRO CWFA IN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND MAY NEED TO
BE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS...SINCE
LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MEANDERING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH
MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS...IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE IN CONTROL.

COASTAL FLOODING...THE RISK FOR MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL (1.5 TO 2 FEET) ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. AN INCREASED HAZARD
OF DRIVING ON THE BEACH AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE TWO MAIN HAZARDS ON LAND...WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IN THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66







000
FXUS64 KBRO 201142
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
642 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF KENEDY COUNTY PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
CLOSE TO THE TERMINALS BUT DO EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING
INTO THE AREA DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY
WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THIS TWO FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOWS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE BAY
WHILE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE HUGS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MX AND S TX.
AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT THE EASTERLY
FLOW TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING DEEP MOISTURE INLAND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT KEEPS
INCREASING. THE PWATS INCREASE TO 1.90 INCHES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS THE
WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST BUT SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE...COMBINED
WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
AND PLACE THE BRO CWFA IN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND MAY NEED TO
BE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS...SINCE
LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MEANDERING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH
MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS...IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE IN CONTROL.

COASTAL FLOODING...THE RISK FOR MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL (1.5 TO 2 FEET) ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. AN INCREASED HAZARD
OF DRIVING ON THE BEACH AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE TWO MAIN HAZARDS ON LAND...WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IN THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66







000
FXUS64 KBRO 201142
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
642 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF KENEDY COUNTY PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
CLOSE TO THE TERMINALS BUT DO EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING
INTO THE AREA DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY
WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THIS TWO FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOWS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE BAY
WHILE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE HUGS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MX AND S TX.
AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT THE EASTERLY
FLOW TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING DEEP MOISTURE INLAND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT KEEPS
INCREASING. THE PWATS INCREASE TO 1.90 INCHES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS THE
WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST BUT SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE...COMBINED
WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
AND PLACE THE BRO CWFA IN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND MAY NEED TO
BE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS...SINCE
LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MEANDERING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH
MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS...IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE IN CONTROL.

COASTAL FLOODING...THE RISK FOR MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL (1.5 TO 2 FEET) ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. AN INCREASED HAZARD
OF DRIVING ON THE BEACH AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE TWO MAIN HAZARDS ON LAND...WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IN THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66







000
FXUS64 KBRO 201142
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
642 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF KENEDY COUNTY PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
CLOSE TO THE TERMINALS BUT DO EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING
INTO THE AREA DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY
WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THIS TWO FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOWS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE BAY
WHILE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE HUGS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MX AND S TX.
AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT THE EASTERLY
FLOW TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING DEEP MOISTURE INLAND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT KEEPS
INCREASING. THE PWATS INCREASE TO 1.90 INCHES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS THE
WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST BUT SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE...COMBINED
WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
AND PLACE THE BRO CWFA IN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND MAY NEED TO
BE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS...SINCE
LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MEANDERING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH
MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS...IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE IN CONTROL.

COASTAL FLOODING...THE RISK FOR MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL (1.5 TO 2 FEET) ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. AN INCREASED HAZARD
OF DRIVING ON THE BEACH AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE TWO MAIN HAZARDS ON LAND...WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IN THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66







000
FXUS64 KFWD 201140
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID
WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES
UP ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST
UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE O THE TWO MODELS LAVES US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED
AND TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER
UNTIL NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75





000
FXUS64 KFWD 201140
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID
WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES
UP ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST
UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE O THE TWO MODELS LAVES US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED
AND TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER
UNTIL NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75





000
FXUS64 KFWD 201140
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID
WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES
UP ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST
UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE O THE TWO MODELS LAVES US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED
AND TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER
UNTIL NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75





000
FXUS64 KFWD 201140
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AND KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WE EXPECT FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID
WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES
UP ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST
UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE O THE TWO MODELS LAVES US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED
AND TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER
UNTIL NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75





000
FXUS64 KCRP 201134 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT/KALI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MRNG. VFR AT KCRP/KLRD TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU MID MRNG AT KLRD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THRU THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...ISO TO SCT SHRA MAY IMPACT KCRP AND KALI THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ATTM FEEL THAT MAIN THREAT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE DRNG MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MOST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF SHRA OCCRNG MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
DISSIPATES WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR VSBYS DVLP...PRIMARILY AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. NERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS BECOMING MORE ERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 201134 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VSBYS
AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD AT KVCT/KALI WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MRNG. VFR AT KCRP/KLRD TO START THE DAY WITH TEMPO
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THRU MID MRNG AT KLRD. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING THRU THE AFTN.
HOWEVER...ISO TO SCT SHRA MAY IMPACT KCRP AND KALI THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPO MVFR TO EVEN IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE IF PRECIP IS HEAVY
ENOUGH. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT ATTM FEEL THAT MAIN THREAT TO
TERMINALS WILL BE DRNG MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. KLRD SHOULD REMAIN DRY
MOST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES OF SHRA OCCRNG MID/LATE AFTN AND INTO
EARLY EVENING. KVCT XPCTD TO REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT...PRECIP
DISSIPATES WITH VFR PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WHEN
MVFR VSBYS DVLP...PRIMARILY AT KLRD/KVCT/KALI. NERLY WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS BECOMING MORE ERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KFWD 201133
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID
WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES
UP ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST
UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE O THE TWO MODELS LAVES US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED
AND TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER
UNTIL NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1151 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75








000
FXUS64 KFWD 201133
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MID
WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST TODAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS THE BROAD EASTERN U.S UPPER LOW MOVES
UP ALONG THE UPPER ATLANTIC COASTLINE. WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST
UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THE OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS TONIGHT HAVE CONTINUED A
TREND OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN THAT THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF DOES BRING THE TAIL OF A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO
THE STATE WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. A
COMPROMISE O THE TWO MODELS LAVES US TO REDUCE POPS TO ISOLATED
AND TRIMMED THE AREA FOR CONVECTION TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT WEEKS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
STRONG AND SHARP AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY /PER GFS/ OR
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT /PER ECMWF/. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...DEPENDING ON FROPA TIMING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN MID 70S TO LOW 80S WED-FRI. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER
UNTIL NEXT WEEK/S COLD FRONT ARRIVES.   75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1151 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              81  57  82  61  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             76  58  81  58  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  82  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  82  59  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            81  62  83  63  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           81  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  83  60  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            80  58  82  60  81 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  83  58  79 /  10  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75







000
FXUS64 KMAF 201130
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the terminals
through this evening with TEMPO MVFR ceilings expected this
morning through 16z. An upper level low pressure area across
northern Mexico will produce the threat of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and west
Texas through tonight. Confidence was high enough to include prob
30 groups this afternoon and this evening for VFR conditions in
TSRA at KINK, KHOB and KCNM with TEMPO VFR conditions in TSRA at
KFST and KPEQ this afternoon and this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show an upper low moving closer and increasing
rain chances, especially west of the Pecos River. Echoes are
decreasing on radar early this morning but should increase again
later today. Some showers could produce brief heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding could be a concern in the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. There is not a lot of movement with the low
so the best rain chances will remain west of Midland through
tomorrow night before finally spreading east on Wednesday.
Unfortunately by that time the low will have weakened so rainfall
amounts will probably not be as high as is expected in the western
CWA.

Most models do not show a front with the passage of the upper low
on Thursday with only the ECMWF showing a weak passage on
Thursday. An upper high does build into the four corners region by
Friday providing northerly upper flow so a weak frontal passage
does not seem out of the question though the only effect may be a
slight wind shift. The current forecast does not have any cooling
behind the front since the upper low is weakening and lifting
northeast, a situation not favorable for surface cold air
advection in west Texas. The high will move out of the four
corners and into Texas over the weekend causing temperatures to
once again rise well above normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  57  71  57  /  40  20  40  30
BIG SPRING TX              79  59  74  58  /  20  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  58  70  59  /  60  50  50  40
DRYDEN TX                  77  63  74  61  /  60  50  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  60  73  59  /  60  40  60  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  52  63  53  /  70  50  50  40
HOBBS NM                   74  55  70  56  /  50  30  40  30
MARFA TX                   70  51  66  50  /  70  50  60  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  58  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
ODESSA TX                  78  59  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
WINK TX                    78  60  74  60  /  50  40  50  30

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 201130
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the terminals
through this evening with TEMPO MVFR ceilings expected this
morning through 16z. An upper level low pressure area across
northern Mexico will produce the threat of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and west
Texas through tonight. Confidence was high enough to include prob
30 groups this afternoon and this evening for VFR conditions in
TSRA at KINK, KHOB and KCNM with TEMPO VFR conditions in TSRA at
KFST and KPEQ this afternoon and this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show an upper low moving closer and increasing
rain chances, especially west of the Pecos River. Echoes are
decreasing on radar early this morning but should increase again
later today. Some showers could produce brief heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding could be a concern in the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. There is not a lot of movement with the low
so the best rain chances will remain west of Midland through
tomorrow night before finally spreading east on Wednesday.
Unfortunately by that time the low will have weakened so rainfall
amounts will probably not be as high as is expected in the western
CWA.

Most models do not show a front with the passage of the upper low
on Thursday with only the ECMWF showing a weak passage on
Thursday. An upper high does build into the four corners region by
Friday providing northerly upper flow so a weak frontal passage
does not seem out of the question though the only effect may be a
slight wind shift. The current forecast does not have any cooling
behind the front since the upper low is weakening and lifting
northeast, a situation not favorable for surface cold air
advection in west Texas. The high will move out of the four
corners and into Texas over the weekend causing temperatures to
once again rise well above normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  57  71  57  /  40  20  40  30
BIG SPRING TX              79  59  74  58  /  20  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  58  70  59  /  60  50  50  40
DRYDEN TX                  77  63  74  61  /  60  50  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  60  73  59  /  60  40  60  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  52  63  53  /  70  50  50  40
HOBBS NM                   74  55  70  56  /  50  30  40  30
MARFA TX                   70  51  66  50  /  70  50  60  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  58  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
ODESSA TX                  78  59  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
WINK TX                    78  60  74  60  /  50  40  50  30

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 201121
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
621 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
A TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING. CIGS VARY BETWEEN VFR AND IFR
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. THERE IS
ALSO PATCHY FOG ENCROACHING ON I-35. HAVE DROPPED VIS AT AUS WITH
A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL AROUND 15Z. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS IN SAN
ANTONIO AND IFR AT DRT. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY LATE
MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA/SHRA AT DRT TODAY...BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. FLOW WILL BE MORE
EASTERLY TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BE LESS THAN
VFR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OR THINKING OVER THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACROSS
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE
FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA...AND THE MOISTURE AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY WEST FROM WHERE IT IS TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED POPS FORECAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION IS WINNING OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CMC ARE NO
LONGER SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AND NOW SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS EVEN
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE APPEARS
RATHER LIMITED...AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING.
GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  83  61  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  83  55  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  86  57  86 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  59  83  59  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  85  53  86 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  58  84  56  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  64  86  61  87 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  86  58  87 /  10  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KLUB 201120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KLBB WHILE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT
KCDS...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO 9 MILES AND WITH A FEW
SITES EAST OF THE SAID TERMINAL NEARING VFR FOG...IT IS A
POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...MVFR CLOUD DECKS ARE
ALSO A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE
INSERTED A FEW MENTION FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL EXPECT THE FOG AND
ANY LOW CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING
AT KLBB. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INSERT A MENTION AT THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OCCURRENCE HAS NOT HAPPENED THIS MORNING THUS
FAR. BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR LATER
TAF CYCLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A CLOSED UA LOW WAS PROPAGATING EWRD ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AIDING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SUCH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED BY 10 DEGREES /IN THE 50S/ SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THUS MAKING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/FOG
MORE OF A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
SCOURING LOW CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...THOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ENSUE. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UA LOW NOT
CHANGING MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY /REMAINING SOUTH OF AZ AND
NM/...COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES /MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY THE AFTN/
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

MEANWHILE AN UA TROUGH DIVING ESE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING WILL SEND DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTN...WHERE IT IS POISED TO STALL BEFORE RETREATING NORTH TONIGHT.
THE NAM AND A FEW HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS HINT AT PRECIP DEVELOPING
NEAR THIS FRONT...POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT FOR SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR/MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NRN SOUTH PLAINS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /70S AND
80S/ DUE TO A QUICKER DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG /UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S/ GIVEN A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
00Z WRF-NAM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...ITS TIMING AND EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MUCH DRIER.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS ATTM WITH THE ONLY
MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SPEED UP ONSET AND ENDING OF PRECIP
BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRICKIEST OF THE
WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY WRN AND CNTL PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA.

BEFORE THEN...PRECIP TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR THE SWRN ZONES
AS THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE STRONGER
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT POINT TO BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
BUT WITH A CHANCE OF IT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS THE WRN PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

AFTERWARDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FOR LATE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE MULK OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. WILL THUS PERSIST WITH A DRY AND MILD FCST NUDGING
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  49  71  51  67 /  20  20  10  30  50
TULIA         76  51  74  51  70 /  20  20  10  10  50
PLAINVIEW     75  52  72  53  69 /  30  20  10  10  50
LEVELLAND     75  52  71  53  69 /  40  20  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       77  54  73  54  69 /  30  20  10  20  50
DENVER CITY   74  53  70  54  69 /  40  30  30  30  50
BROWNFIELD    75  53  71  54  70 /  40  20  20  20  50
CHILDRESS     84  55  80  56  74 /  20  10  10  10  30
SPUR          79  55  76  56  73 /  20  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     84  56  78  55  77 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 201120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KLBB WHILE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN AT
KCDS...THOUGH VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED TO 9 MILES AND WITH A FEW
SITES EAST OF THE SAID TERMINAL NEARING VFR FOG...IT IS A
POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...MVFR CLOUD DECKS ARE
ALSO A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE
INSERTED A FEW MENTION FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL EXPECT THE FOG AND
ANY LOW CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING
AT KLBB. HAVE OPTED TO NOT INSERT A MENTION AT THIS TIME
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OCCURRENCE HAS NOT HAPPENED THIS MORNING THUS
FAR. BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR LATER
TAF CYCLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A CLOSED UA LOW WAS PROPAGATING EWRD ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AIDING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SUCH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED BY 10 DEGREES /IN THE 50S/ SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THUS MAKING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/FOG
MORE OF A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
SCOURING LOW CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...THOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ENSUE. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UA LOW NOT
CHANGING MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY /REMAINING SOUTH OF AZ AND
NM/...COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES /MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY THE AFTN/
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

MEANWHILE AN UA TROUGH DIVING ESE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING WILL SEND DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTN...WHERE IT IS POISED TO STALL BEFORE RETREATING NORTH TONIGHT.
THE NAM AND A FEW HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS HINT AT PRECIP DEVELOPING
NEAR THIS FRONT...POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT FOR SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR/MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NRN SOUTH PLAINS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /70S AND
80S/ DUE TO A QUICKER DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG /UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S/ GIVEN A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
00Z WRF-NAM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...ITS TIMING AND EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MUCH DRIER.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS ATTM WITH THE ONLY
MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SPEED UP ONSET AND ENDING OF PRECIP
BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRICKIEST OF THE
WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY WRN AND CNTL PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA.

BEFORE THEN...PRECIP TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR THE SWRN ZONES
AS THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE STRONGER
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT POINT TO BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
BUT WITH A CHANCE OF IT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS THE WRN PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

AFTERWARDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FOR LATE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE MULK OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. WILL THUS PERSIST WITH A DRY AND MILD FCST NUDGING
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  49  71  51  67 /  20  20  10  30  50
TULIA         76  51  74  51  70 /  20  20  10  10  50
PLAINVIEW     75  52  72  53  69 /  30  20  10  10  50
LEVELLAND     75  52  71  53  69 /  40  20  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       77  54  73  54  69 /  30  20  10  20  50
DENVER CITY   74  53  70  54  69 /  40  30  30  30  50
BROWNFIELD    75  53  71  54  70 /  40  20  20  20  50
CHILDRESS     84  55  80  56  74 /  20  10  10  10  30
SPUR          79  55  76  56  73 /  20  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     84  56  78  55  77 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KSJT 201059
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 201059
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 201059
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 201059
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 201059
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 201059
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
559 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. More
uncertainty remains at KABI And KSJT, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at KSJT and KSOA, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the TAF package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 201057
AFDSJT








000
FXUS64 KSJT 201057
AFDSJT







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201003
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
403 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH
OF THE ARIZONA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN EMBEDDED
VORTICITY AXIS ROTATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGEST
ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF ALAMOGORDO.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN INTO AN
OPEN WAVE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING ACROSS NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN DYNAMIC LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AS MODELS
SHOWING DPVA OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE PERIOD TODAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE AT LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER ARIZONA WILL GENERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITH OVERALL CIRCULATION TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL THUS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 50 F
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND .8 TO 1.1 INCHES. CLOUD COVER AND
ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
GENERALLY FROM 200 TO 800 J/KG THROUGH TOMORROW. THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY A SECOND TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
SUSTAINING DYNAMIC LIFTING OVER MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH .75 TO 1
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG CAPES. MODERATE WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY WITH 30 KT WESTERLY WINDS AT
6 KM AGL. THUS THREAT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL EXIT ON
WEDNESDAY.

BEHIND THE TROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES AND
BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ALOFT
BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGH FORMATION
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS FORECASTING POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. AT MOMENT BELIEVE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AIR
MASS DRY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SEASONABLY WARM DRY OUTLOOK LATER
PERIODS ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME AT LEAST BREEZY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND
5000 TO 10,000 FEET AGL WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. THUS THE
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT
FOR HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  56  73  55  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           70  50  70  50  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              72  51  71  52  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              73  51  71  52  73 /  60  40  30  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              55  36  55  38  55 /  60  50  40  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   72  52  71  52  71 /  50  20  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             67  47  66  48  69 /  50  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  73  51  72  52  74 /  50  20  30  30  20
LORDSBURG               74  52  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  56  72  56  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
DELL CITY               72  49  72  48  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
FORT HANCOCK            74  54  74  53  78 /  70  50  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              68  50  67  51  69 /  60  50  30  40  30
FABENS                  74  52  75  52  78 /  60  40  30  40  30
SANTA TERESA            73  53  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  54  71  55  72 /  60  40  30  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           72  47  71  47  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
HATCH                   73  49  71  49  72 /  60  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                73  53  72  54  75 /  50  20  30  30  20
OROGRANDE               73  52  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
MAYHILL                 62  42  60  43  63 /  60  50  40  40  40
MESCALERO               63  39  61  40  62 /  60  40  40  40  40
TIMBERON                62  39  60  41  62 /  60  50  40  40  40
WINSTON                 66  45  65  46  67 /  70  30  30  40  30
HILLSBORO               68  49  67  50  69 /  60  20  30  30  20
SPACEPORT               73  48  71  48  71 /  50  30  30  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            66  44  65  45  68 /  60  30  30  30  20
HURLEY                  68  48  68  49  71 /  50  20  20  30  20
CLIFF                   72  46  73  46  75 /  40  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              70  42  70  41  72 /  40  20  20  20  10
FAYWOOD                 68  49  67  50  70 /  60  20  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  75  51  76  51  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
HACHITA                 74  50  72  49  76 /  40  20  20  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  49  76  49  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
CLOVERDALE              75  49  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201003
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
403 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH
OF THE ARIZONA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN EMBEDDED
VORTICITY AXIS ROTATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGEST
ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF ALAMOGORDO.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN INTO AN
OPEN WAVE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING ACROSS NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN DYNAMIC LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AS MODELS
SHOWING DPVA OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE PERIOD TODAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE AT LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER ARIZONA WILL GENERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITH OVERALL CIRCULATION TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL THUS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 50 F
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND .8 TO 1.1 INCHES. CLOUD COVER AND
ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
GENERALLY FROM 200 TO 800 J/KG THROUGH TOMORROW. THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY A SECOND TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
SUSTAINING DYNAMIC LIFTING OVER MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH .75 TO 1
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG CAPES. MODERATE WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY WITH 30 KT WESTERLY WINDS AT
6 KM AGL. THUS THREAT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL EXIT ON
WEDNESDAY.

BEHIND THE TROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES AND
BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ALOFT
BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGH FORMATION
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS FORECASTING POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. AT MOMENT BELIEVE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AIR
MASS DRY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SEASONABLY WARM DRY OUTLOOK LATER
PERIODS ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME AT LEAST BREEZY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND
5000 TO 10,000 FEET AGL WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. THUS THE
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT
FOR HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  56  73  55  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           70  50  70  50  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              72  51  71  52  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              73  51  71  52  73 /  60  40  30  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              55  36  55  38  55 /  60  50  40  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   72  52  71  52  71 /  50  20  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             67  47  66  48  69 /  50  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  73  51  72  52  74 /  50  20  30  30  20
LORDSBURG               74  52  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  56  72  56  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
DELL CITY               72  49  72  48  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
FORT HANCOCK            74  54  74  53  78 /  70  50  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              68  50  67  51  69 /  60  50  30  40  30
FABENS                  74  52  75  52  78 /  60  40  30  40  30
SANTA TERESA            73  53  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  54  71  55  72 /  60  40  30  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           72  47  71  47  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
HATCH                   73  49  71  49  72 /  60  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                73  53  72  54  75 /  50  20  30  30  20
OROGRANDE               73  52  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
MAYHILL                 62  42  60  43  63 /  60  50  40  40  40
MESCALERO               63  39  61  40  62 /  60  40  40  40  40
TIMBERON                62  39  60  41  62 /  60  50  40  40  40
WINSTON                 66  45  65  46  67 /  70  30  30  40  30
HILLSBORO               68  49  67  50  69 /  60  20  30  30  20
SPACEPORT               73  48  71  48  71 /  50  30  30  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            66  44  65  45  68 /  60  30  30  30  20
HURLEY                  68  48  68  49  71 /  50  20  20  30  20
CLIFF                   72  46  73  46  75 /  40  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              70  42  70  41  72 /  40  20  20  20  10
FAYWOOD                 68  49  67  50  70 /  60  20  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  75  51  76  51  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
HACHITA                 74  50  72  49  76 /  40  20  20  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  49  76  49  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
CLOVERDALE              75  49  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201003
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
403 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH
OF THE ARIZONA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN EMBEDDED
VORTICITY AXIS ROTATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGEST
ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF ALAMOGORDO.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN INTO AN
OPEN WAVE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING ACROSS NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN DYNAMIC LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AS MODELS
SHOWING DPVA OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE PERIOD TODAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE AT LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER ARIZONA WILL GENERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITH OVERALL CIRCULATION TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL THUS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 50 F
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND .8 TO 1.1 INCHES. CLOUD COVER AND
ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
GENERALLY FROM 200 TO 800 J/KG THROUGH TOMORROW. THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY A SECOND TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
SUSTAINING DYNAMIC LIFTING OVER MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH .75 TO 1
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG CAPES. MODERATE WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY WITH 30 KT WESTERLY WINDS AT
6 KM AGL. THUS THREAT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL EXIT ON
WEDNESDAY.

BEHIND THE TROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES AND
BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ALOFT
BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGH FORMATION
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS FORECASTING POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. AT MOMENT BELIEVE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AIR
MASS DRY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SEASONABLY WARM DRY OUTLOOK LATER
PERIODS ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME AT LEAST BREEZY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND
5000 TO 10,000 FEET AGL WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. THUS THE
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT
FOR HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  56  73  55  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           70  50  70  50  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              72  51  71  52  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              73  51  71  52  73 /  60  40  30  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              55  36  55  38  55 /  60  50  40  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   72  52  71  52  71 /  50  20  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             67  47  66  48  69 /  50  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  73  51  72  52  74 /  50  20  30  30  20
LORDSBURG               74  52  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  56  72  56  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
DELL CITY               72  49  72  48  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
FORT HANCOCK            74  54  74  53  78 /  70  50  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              68  50  67  51  69 /  60  50  30  40  30
FABENS                  74  52  75  52  78 /  60  40  30  40  30
SANTA TERESA            73  53  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  54  71  55  72 /  60  40  30  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           72  47  71  47  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
HATCH                   73  49  71  49  72 /  60  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                73  53  72  54  75 /  50  20  30  30  20
OROGRANDE               73  52  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
MAYHILL                 62  42  60  43  63 /  60  50  40  40  40
MESCALERO               63  39  61  40  62 /  60  40  40  40  40
TIMBERON                62  39  60  41  62 /  60  50  40  40  40
WINSTON                 66  45  65  46  67 /  70  30  30  40  30
HILLSBORO               68  49  67  50  69 /  60  20  30  30  20
SPACEPORT               73  48  71  48  71 /  50  30  30  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            66  44  65  45  68 /  60  30  30  30  20
HURLEY                  68  48  68  49  71 /  50  20  20  30  20
CLIFF                   72  46  73  46  75 /  40  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              70  42  70  41  72 /  40  20  20  20  10
FAYWOOD                 68  49  67  50  70 /  60  20  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  75  51  76  51  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
HACHITA                 74  50  72  49  76 /  40  20  20  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  49  76  49  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
CLOVERDALE              75  49  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201003
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
403 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH
OF THE ARIZONA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN EMBEDDED
VORTICITY AXIS ROTATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGEST
ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF ALAMOGORDO.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN INTO AN
OPEN WAVE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING ACROSS NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN DYNAMIC LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AS MODELS
SHOWING DPVA OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE PERIOD TODAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE AT LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER ARIZONA WILL GENERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITH OVERALL CIRCULATION TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL THUS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 50 F
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND .8 TO 1.1 INCHES. CLOUD COVER AND
ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
GENERALLY FROM 200 TO 800 J/KG THROUGH TOMORROW. THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY A SECOND TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
SUSTAINING DYNAMIC LIFTING OVER MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH .75 TO 1
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG CAPES. MODERATE WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY WITH 30 KT WESTERLY WINDS AT
6 KM AGL. THUS THREAT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL EXIT ON
WEDNESDAY.

BEHIND THE TROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES AND
BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ALOFT
BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGH FORMATION
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS FORECASTING POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. AT MOMENT BELIEVE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AIR
MASS DRY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SEASONABLY WARM DRY OUTLOOK LATER
PERIODS ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME AT LEAST BREEZY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND
5000 TO 10,000 FEET AGL WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. THUS THE
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT
FOR HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  56  73  55  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           70  50  70  50  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              72  51  71  52  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              73  51  71  52  73 /  60  40  30  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              55  36  55  38  55 /  60  50  40  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   72  52  71  52  71 /  50  20  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             67  47  66  48  69 /  50  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  73  51  72  52  74 /  50  20  30  30  20
LORDSBURG               74  52  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  56  72  56  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
DELL CITY               72  49  72  48  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
FORT HANCOCK            74  54  74  53  78 /  70  50  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              68  50  67  51  69 /  60  50  30  40  30
FABENS                  74  52  75  52  78 /  60  40  30  40  30
SANTA TERESA            73  53  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  54  71  55  72 /  60  40  30  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           72  47  71  47  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
HATCH                   73  49  71  49  72 /  60  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                73  53  72  54  75 /  50  20  30  30  20
OROGRANDE               73  52  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
MAYHILL                 62  42  60  43  63 /  60  50  40  40  40
MESCALERO               63  39  61  40  62 /  60  40  40  40  40
TIMBERON                62  39  60  41  62 /  60  50  40  40  40
WINSTON                 66  45  65  46  67 /  70  30  30  40  30
HILLSBORO               68  49  67  50  69 /  60  20  30  30  20
SPACEPORT               73  48  71  48  71 /  50  30  30  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            66  44  65  45  68 /  60  30  30  30  20
HURLEY                  68  48  68  49  71 /  50  20  20  30  20
CLIFF                   72  46  73  46  75 /  40  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              70  42  70  41  72 /  40  20  20  20  10
FAYWOOD                 68  49  67  50  70 /  60  20  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  75  51  76  51  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
HACHITA                 74  50  72  49  76 /  40  20  20  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  49  76  49  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
CLOVERDALE              75  49  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201003
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
403 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH
OF THE ARIZONA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN EMBEDDED
VORTICITY AXIS ROTATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGEST
ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF ALAMOGORDO.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN INTO AN
OPEN WAVE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING ACROSS NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN DYNAMIC LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AS MODELS
SHOWING DPVA OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE PERIOD TODAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE AT LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER ARIZONA WILL GENERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITH OVERALL CIRCULATION TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL THUS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 50 F
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND .8 TO 1.1 INCHES. CLOUD COVER AND
ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
GENERALLY FROM 200 TO 800 J/KG THROUGH TOMORROW. THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY A SECOND TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
SUSTAINING DYNAMIC LIFTING OVER MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH .75 TO 1
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG CAPES. MODERATE WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY WITH 30 KT WESTERLY WINDS AT
6 KM AGL. THUS THREAT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL EXIT ON
WEDNESDAY.

BEHIND THE TROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES AND
BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ALOFT
BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGH FORMATION
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS FORECASTING POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. AT MOMENT BELIEVE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AIR
MASS DRY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SEASONABLY WARM DRY OUTLOOK LATER
PERIODS ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME AT LEAST BREEZY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND
5000 TO 10,000 FEET AGL WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. THUS THE
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT
FOR HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  56  73  55  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           70  50  70  50  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              72  51  71  52  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              73  51  71  52  73 /  60  40  30  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              55  36  55  38  55 /  60  50  40  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   72  52  71  52  71 /  50  20  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             67  47  66  48  69 /  50  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  73  51  72  52  74 /  50  20  30  30  20
LORDSBURG               74  52  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  56  72  56  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
DELL CITY               72  49  72  48  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
FORT HANCOCK            74  54  74  53  78 /  70  50  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              68  50  67  51  69 /  60  50  30  40  30
FABENS                  74  52  75  52  78 /  60  40  30  40  30
SANTA TERESA            73  53  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  54  71  55  72 /  60  40  30  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           72  47  71  47  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
HATCH                   73  49  71  49  72 /  60  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                73  53  72  54  75 /  50  20  30  30  20
OROGRANDE               73  52  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
MAYHILL                 62  42  60  43  63 /  60  50  40  40  40
MESCALERO               63  39  61  40  62 /  60  40  40  40  40
TIMBERON                62  39  60  41  62 /  60  50  40  40  40
WINSTON                 66  45  65  46  67 /  70  30  30  40  30
HILLSBORO               68  49  67  50  69 /  60  20  30  30  20
SPACEPORT               73  48  71  48  71 /  50  30  30  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            66  44  65  45  68 /  60  30  30  30  20
HURLEY                  68  48  68  49  71 /  50  20  20  30  20
CLIFF                   72  46  73  46  75 /  40  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              70  42  70  41  72 /  40  20  20  20  10
FAYWOOD                 68  49  67  50  70 /  60  20  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  75  51  76  51  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
HACHITA                 74  50  72  49  76 /  40  20  20  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  49  76  49  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
CLOVERDALE              75  49  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201003
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
403 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH
OF THE ARIZONA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN EMBEDDED
VORTICITY AXIS ROTATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA. OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION WITH STRONGEST
ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF ALAMOGORDO.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN INTO AN
OPEN WAVE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING ACROSS NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. APPROACH OF
SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN DYNAMIC LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION AS MODELS
SHOWING DPVA OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE PERIOD TODAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE AT LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER ARIZONA WILL GENERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITH OVERALL CIRCULATION TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL THUS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 50 F
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND .8 TO 1.1 INCHES. CLOUD COVER AND
ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH CAPES
GENERALLY FROM 200 TO 800 J/KG THROUGH TOMORROW. THUS EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY A SECOND TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
SUSTAINING DYNAMIC LIFTING OVER MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH .75 TO 1
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG CAPES. MODERATE WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY WITH 30 KT WESTERLY WINDS AT
6 KM AGL. THUS THREAT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL EXIT ON
WEDNESDAY.

BEHIND THE TROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS ROCKIES AND
BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ALOFT
BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGH FORMATION
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH GFS FORECASTING POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. AT MOMENT BELIEVE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AIR
MASS DRY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SEASONABLY WARM DRY OUTLOOK LATER
PERIODS ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME AT LEAST BREEZY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND
5000 TO 10,000 FEET AGL WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BORDERLAND. THUS THE
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT
FOR HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL THEN PRODUCE WARMER DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  56  73  55  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           70  50  70  50  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
LAS CRUCES              72  51  71  52  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              73  51  71  52  73 /  60  40  30  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              55  36  55  38  55 /  60  50  40  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   72  52  71  52  71 /  50  20  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             67  47  66  48  69 /  50  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  73  51  72  52  74 /  50  20  30  30  20
LORDSBURG               74  52  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  56  72  56  76 /  60  40  30  40  30
DELL CITY               72  49  72  48  74 /  70  50  40  40  40
FORT HANCOCK            74  54  74  53  78 /  70  50  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              68  50  67  51  69 /  60  50  30  40  30
FABENS                  74  52  75  52  78 /  60  40  30  40  30
SANTA TERESA            73  53  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  54  71  55  72 /  60  40  30  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           72  47  71  47  72 /  60  30  30  40  30
HATCH                   73  49  71  49  72 /  60  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                73  53  72  54  75 /  50  20  30  30  20
OROGRANDE               73  52  72  53  74 /  60  40  30  40  30
MAYHILL                 62  42  60  43  63 /  60  50  40  40  40
MESCALERO               63  39  61  40  62 /  60  40  40  40  40
TIMBERON                62  39  60  41  62 /  60  50  40  40  40
WINSTON                 66  45  65  46  67 /  70  30  30  40  30
HILLSBORO               68  49  67  50  69 /  60  20  30  30  20
SPACEPORT               73  48  71  48  71 /  50  30  30  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            66  44  65  45  68 /  60  30  30  30  20
HURLEY                  68  48  68  49  71 /  50  20  20  30  20
CLIFF                   72  46  73  46  75 /  40  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              70  42  70  41  72 /  40  20  20  20  10
FAYWOOD                 68  49  67  50  70 /  60  20  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  75  51  76  51  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
HACHITA                 74  50  72  49  76 /  40  20  20  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  49  76  49  78 /  40  20  20  20  20
CLOVERDALE              75  49  74  51  76 /  40  20  20  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH




000
FXUS64 KCRP 200932
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...EARLY THIS MORNING...A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WAS ANALYZED TO EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS HOW HIGH/LOW TO GO WITH POPS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH SLIGHTLY WHILE AN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE TRANSITIONS MORE TO AN AREA OF SPEED
CONVERGENCE. GREATEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH PERHAPS A LOCAL MAXIMUM ACROSS SE ZONES WHERE AREA OF
CONVERGENCE IS PROG BY THE RUC AND NAM TO BE THE GREATEST.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING CHANCES ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY
WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO PICK UP
ON IMPACTS FROM A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY. NE ZONES SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP TODAY DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE LLVL
WIND PROFILE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TODAY AND FOR NOW HAVE
OMITTED MENTION OF THUNDER IN OFFICIAL FORECAST...THROUGH A RUMBLE
OR TWO WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST ACROSS NE ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE THINNEST AND
CONDITIONS THE DRIEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING WITH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAINING DRY AREAWIDE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
LOWER ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN WITH MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
BE LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. MODELS DEPICT A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO
AND TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SHOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR WEST WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...THE
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL. GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DEVELOPS. MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. TIDE LEVELS MAY INCREASE TO ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE
PREDICTED BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER SWELLS AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
AFFECT THE COAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG MID LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY...WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MORE
PROGRESSIVE. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND WEAK NORTHEAST WINDS TO
PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY. MILD MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED WHILE HIGH
TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR-SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 200932
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...EARLY THIS MORNING...A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WAS ANALYZED TO EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS HOW HIGH/LOW TO GO WITH POPS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH SLIGHTLY WHILE AN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE TRANSITIONS MORE TO AN AREA OF SPEED
CONVERGENCE. GREATEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH PERHAPS A LOCAL MAXIMUM ACROSS SE ZONES WHERE AREA OF
CONVERGENCE IS PROG BY THE RUC AND NAM TO BE THE GREATEST.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING CHANCES ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY
WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO PICK UP
ON IMPACTS FROM A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY. NE ZONES SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP TODAY DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE LLVL
WIND PROFILE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TODAY AND FOR NOW HAVE
OMITTED MENTION OF THUNDER IN OFFICIAL FORECAST...THROUGH A RUMBLE
OR TWO WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST ACROSS NE ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE THINNEST AND
CONDITIONS THE DRIEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING WITH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAINING DRY AREAWIDE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
LOWER ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN WITH MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
BE LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. MODELS DEPICT A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO
AND TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SHOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR WEST WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...THE
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL. GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DEVELOPS. MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. TIDE LEVELS MAY INCREASE TO ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE
PREDICTED BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER SWELLS AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
AFFECT THE COAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG MID LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY...WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MORE
PROGRESSIVE. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND WEAK NORTHEAST WINDS TO
PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY. MILD MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED WHILE HIGH
TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR-SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KBRO 200922
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
422 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY
WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THIS TWO FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOWS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE BAY
WHILE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE HUGS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MX AND S TX.
AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT THE EASTERLY
FLOW TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING DEEP MOISTURE INLAND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT KEEPS
INCREASING. THE PWATS INCREASE TO 1.90 INCHES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS THE
WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST BUT SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE...COMBINED
WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
AND PLACE THE BRO CWFA IN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND MAY NEED TO
BE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS...SINCE
LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MEANDERING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH
MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS...IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE IN CONTROL.
&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...THE RISK FOR MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL (1.5 TO 2 FEET) ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. AN INCREASED HAZARD
OF DRIVING ON THE BEACH AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE TWO MAIN HAZARDS ON LAND...WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IN THE SURF ZONE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  73  83  73 /  40  30  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          86  72  84  72 /  40  30  30  20
HARLINGEN            87  70  84  70 /  40  30  20  20
MCALLEN              87  70  85  70 /  40  30  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  69  83  67 /  40  30  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  75  83  76 /  40  30  20  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES-67
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
MESO/WX4PPT...CAMPBELL




000
FXUS64 KBRO 200922
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
422 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY
WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THIS TWO FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOWS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE BAY
WHILE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE HUGS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MX AND S TX.
AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT THE EASTERLY
FLOW TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING DEEP MOISTURE INLAND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT KEEPS
INCREASING. THE PWATS INCREASE TO 1.90 INCHES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS THE
WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST BUT SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE...COMBINED
WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
AND PLACE THE BRO CWFA IN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND MAY NEED TO
BE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS...SINCE
LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MEANDERING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH
MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS...IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE IN CONTROL.
&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...THE RISK FOR MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL (1.5 TO 2 FEET) ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. AN INCREASED HAZARD
OF DRIVING ON THE BEACH AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE TWO MAIN HAZARDS ON LAND...WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IN THE SURF ZONE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  73  83  73 /  40  30  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          86  72  84  72 /  40  30  30  20
HARLINGEN            87  70  84  70 /  40  30  20  20
MCALLEN              87  70  85  70 /  40  30  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  69  83  67 /  40  30  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  75  83  76 /  40  30  20  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES-67
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
MESO/WX4PPT...CAMPBELL




000
FXUS64 KBRO 200922
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
422 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY
WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THIS TWO FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOWS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE BAY
WHILE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE HUGS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MX AND S TX.
AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT THE EASTERLY
FLOW TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING DEEP MOISTURE INLAND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT KEEPS
INCREASING. THE PWATS INCREASE TO 1.90 INCHES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS THE
WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST BUT SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE...COMBINED
WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
AND PLACE THE BRO CWFA IN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND MAY NEED TO
BE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS...SINCE
LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MEANDERING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH
MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS...IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE IN CONTROL.
&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...THE RISK FOR MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL (1.5 TO 2 FEET) ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. AN INCREASED HAZARD
OF DRIVING ON THE BEACH AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE TWO MAIN HAZARDS ON LAND...WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IN THE SURF ZONE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  73  83  73 /  40  30  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          86  72  84  72 /  40  30  30  20
HARLINGEN            87  70  84  70 /  40  30  20  20
MCALLEN              87  70  85  70 /  40  30  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  69  83  67 /  40  30  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  75  83  76 /  40  30  20  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES-67
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
MESO/WX4PPT...CAMPBELL




000
FXUS64 KBRO 200922
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
422 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY
WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THIS TWO FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOWS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE BAY
WHILE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE HUGS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MX AND S TX.
AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT THE EASTERLY
FLOW TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING DEEP MOISTURE INLAND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT KEEPS
INCREASING. THE PWATS INCREASE TO 1.90 INCHES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS THE
WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST BUT SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE...COMBINED
WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
AND PLACE THE BRO CWFA IN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND MAY NEED TO
BE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS...SINCE
LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MEANDERING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH
MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS...IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE IN CONTROL.
&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...THE RISK FOR MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL (1.5 TO 2 FEET) ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. AN INCREASED HAZARD
OF DRIVING ON THE BEACH AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE TWO MAIN HAZARDS ON LAND...WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IN THE SURF ZONE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  73  83  73 /  40  30  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          86  72  84  72 /  40  30  30  20
HARLINGEN            87  70  84  70 /  40  30  20  20
MCALLEN              87  70  85  70 /  40  30  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  69  83  67 /  40  30  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  75  83  76 /  40  30  20  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES-67
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
MESO/WX4PPT...CAMPBELL




000
FXUS64 KAMA 200909
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
409 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...INSERTED PATCHY FOG ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL TIL
MID MORNING BASED ON CURERNT OBSERVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO MAY SEND A MINOR VORT LOBE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SW AND SCNTRL
PART OF THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CAUSE AT
LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AREA DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE PLAUSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WRN US UPPER LEVEL TROF...WHICH
IS NOW PROGGED BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TO BE FASTER MOVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE WED AND EARLY WED
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT.
HAVE DONE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR SW
TX PNHDL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER SEEN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXIST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANDRADE/BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                75  52  74  51  70 /  10  10   5  10  40
BEAVER OK                  77  52  78  53  74 /   5   0   0   5  40
BOISE CITY OK              73  48  75  49  70 /  10  10   5  10  40
BORGER TX                  77  55  77  55  72 /   5   5   5  10  40
BOYS RANCH TX              76  50  75  50  70 /  10  10  10  10  40
CANYON TX                  75  51  74  50  70 /  20  20  10  10  40
CLARENDON TX               79  53  77  53  72 /  10  10   5  10  40
DALHART TX                 75  47  75  48  71 /  10  10   5  10  40
GUYMON OK                  76  51  78  51  73 /   5   5   0   5  40
HEREFORD TX                74  50  73  50  70 /  20  20  10  20  40
LIPSCOMB TX                78  52  79  53  74 /   5   0   0   5  40
PAMPA TX                   77  52  77  53  72 /   5   5   5   5  40
SHAMROCK TX                81  53  78  54  74 /  10  10   5  10  30
WELLINGTON TX              82  55  80  55  74 /  10  10   5  10  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 200909
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
409 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...INSERTED PATCHY FOG ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL TIL
MID MORNING BASED ON CURERNT OBSERVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO MAY SEND A MINOR VORT LOBE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SW AND SCNTRL
PART OF THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CAUSE AT
LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AREA DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE PLAUSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WRN US UPPER LEVEL TROF...WHICH
IS NOW PROGGED BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TO BE FASTER MOVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE WED AND EARLY WED
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT.
HAVE DONE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR SW
TX PNHDL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER SEEN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXIST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANDRADE/BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                75  52  74  51  70 /  10  10   5  10  40
BEAVER OK                  77  52  78  53  74 /   5   0   0   5  40
BOISE CITY OK              73  48  75  49  70 /  10  10   5  10  40
BORGER TX                  77  55  77  55  72 /   5   5   5  10  40
BOYS RANCH TX              76  50  75  50  70 /  10  10  10  10  40
CANYON TX                  75  51  74  50  70 /  20  20  10  10  40
CLARENDON TX               79  53  77  53  72 /  10  10   5  10  40
DALHART TX                 75  47  75  48  71 /  10  10   5  10  40
GUYMON OK                  76  51  78  51  73 /   5   5   0   5  40
HEREFORD TX                74  50  73  50  70 /  20  20  10  20  40
LIPSCOMB TX                78  52  79  53  74 /   5   0   0   5  40
PAMPA TX                   77  52  77  53  72 /   5   5   5   5  40
SHAMROCK TX                81  53  78  54  74 /  10  10   5  10  30
WELLINGTON TX              82  55  80  55  74 /  10  10   5  10  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHGX 200901
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
401 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
POSITIONING OF HIGH PRES SYSTEMS INLAND AND LOWER PRES OVER BAY
OF CAMPECHE & SOUTHERN GULF WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
E/NE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THRU MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED PRECIP AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY BUT OVERALL THIS SETUP WILL EFFECTIVELY WILL KEEP DEEPER
GULF MOISTURE OFFSHORE AND PROVIDE VAST MAJORITY OF SE TX WITH A
PLEASANT & DRY WEEK OF WX.

LONGER FETCH OF E/NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL HOWEVER RESULT IN
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS. PROBABLY WON`T HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES ALONG THE COAST, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS TOWARD MIDWEEK NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHEN ASTRONOMICAL
LEVELS ARE HIGHER.

UPPER LOW OVER NCNTL MEXICO EXPECTED TO FILL AND BE ABSORBED BY
THE NEXT TROF (NOW SITUATED OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST) AS IT HEADS
INTO THE CNTL US TOWARD MIDWEEK. RIDGE SHOULD AMPLIFY BEHIND IT
ALLOWING TROF TO DIG SWD INTO THE THE E/SE STATES GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. RESULTING NW/N FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER RIDGING SHOULD
PROVIDE CONTINUED DRY WX THRU THE WEEKEND. 47

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS BEGINNING TO PICK UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
(LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT RELATED TO THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE). TIDES ALSO APPEAR TO BE RESPON-
DING TO THIS INCREASED E/NELY FLOW WITH LEVELS CLOSE TO ONE FT ABOVE
NORMAL ATTM. CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY
TONIGHT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS. NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE OVER-
ALL PATTERN (OF MODERATE/STRONG NE/ELY WINDS) UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THIS VFR FCST AS THE NE-ELY FLOW PERSISTS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL LIKELY KEEP A BRIEF MENTION OF PATCHY FG AT
THE USUAL SITES (LBX/CXO) FOR EARLY TUES MORNING. NOT TOO SURE WITH
THE POSSIBLE MENTION OF PCPN FOR GLS THIS MORNING GIVEN THE CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...BUT WILL LIKELY LEAVE TAF DRY FOR NOW. THIS IDEA MAY
HAVE TO BE RECONSIDERED FOR TUES MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  84  60  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  84  61  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  69  82  70  80 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 200901
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
401 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
POSITIONING OF HIGH PRES SYSTEMS INLAND AND LOWER PRES OVER BAY
OF CAMPECHE & SOUTHERN GULF WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
E/NE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THRU MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED PRECIP AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY BUT OVERALL THIS SETUP WILL EFFECTIVELY WILL KEEP DEEPER
GULF MOISTURE OFFSHORE AND PROVIDE VAST MAJORITY OF SE TX WITH A
PLEASANT & DRY WEEK OF WX.

LONGER FETCH OF E/NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL HOWEVER RESULT IN
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS. PROBABLY WON`T HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES ALONG THE COAST, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS TOWARD MIDWEEK NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHEN ASTRONOMICAL
LEVELS ARE HIGHER.

UPPER LOW OVER NCNTL MEXICO EXPECTED TO FILL AND BE ABSORBED BY
THE NEXT TROF (NOW SITUATED OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST) AS IT HEADS
INTO THE CNTL US TOWARD MIDWEEK. RIDGE SHOULD AMPLIFY BEHIND IT
ALLOWING TROF TO DIG SWD INTO THE THE E/SE STATES GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. RESULTING NW/N FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER RIDGING SHOULD
PROVIDE CONTINUED DRY WX THRU THE WEEKEND. 47

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS BEGINNING TO PICK UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
(LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT RELATED TO THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE). TIDES ALSO APPEAR TO BE RESPON-
DING TO THIS INCREASED E/NELY FLOW WITH LEVELS CLOSE TO ONE FT ABOVE
NORMAL ATTM. CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY
TONIGHT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS. NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE OVER-
ALL PATTERN (OF MODERATE/STRONG NE/ELY WINDS) UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THIS VFR FCST AS THE NE-ELY FLOW PERSISTS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL LIKELY KEEP A BRIEF MENTION OF PATCHY FG AT
THE USUAL SITES (LBX/CXO) FOR EARLY TUES MORNING. NOT TOO SURE WITH
THE POSSIBLE MENTION OF PCPN FOR GLS THIS MORNING GIVEN THE CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...BUT WILL LIKELY LEAVE TAF DRY FOR NOW. THIS IDEA MAY
HAVE TO BE RECONSIDERED FOR TUES MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  84  60  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  84  61  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  69  82  70  80 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 200901
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
401 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
POSITIONING OF HIGH PRES SYSTEMS INLAND AND LOWER PRES OVER BAY
OF CAMPECHE & SOUTHERN GULF WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
E/NE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THRU MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED PRECIP AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY BUT OVERALL THIS SETUP WILL EFFECTIVELY WILL KEEP DEEPER
GULF MOISTURE OFFSHORE AND PROVIDE VAST MAJORITY OF SE TX WITH A
PLEASANT & DRY WEEK OF WX.

LONGER FETCH OF E/NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL HOWEVER RESULT IN
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS. PROBABLY WON`T HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES ALONG THE COAST, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS TOWARD MIDWEEK NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHEN ASTRONOMICAL
LEVELS ARE HIGHER.

UPPER LOW OVER NCNTL MEXICO EXPECTED TO FILL AND BE ABSORBED BY
THE NEXT TROF (NOW SITUATED OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST) AS IT HEADS
INTO THE CNTL US TOWARD MIDWEEK. RIDGE SHOULD AMPLIFY BEHIND IT
ALLOWING TROF TO DIG SWD INTO THE THE E/SE STATES GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. RESULTING NW/N FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER RIDGING SHOULD
PROVIDE CONTINUED DRY WX THRU THE WEEKEND. 47

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS BEGINNING TO PICK UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
(LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT RELATED TO THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE). TIDES ALSO APPEAR TO BE RESPON-
DING TO THIS INCREASED E/NELY FLOW WITH LEVELS CLOSE TO ONE FT ABOVE
NORMAL ATTM. CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY
TONIGHT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS. NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE OVER-
ALL PATTERN (OF MODERATE/STRONG NE/ELY WINDS) UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THIS VFR FCST AS THE NE-ELY FLOW PERSISTS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL LIKELY KEEP A BRIEF MENTION OF PATCHY FG AT
THE USUAL SITES (LBX/CXO) FOR EARLY TUES MORNING. NOT TOO SURE WITH
THE POSSIBLE MENTION OF PCPN FOR GLS THIS MORNING GIVEN THE CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...BUT WILL LIKELY LEAVE TAF DRY FOR NOW. THIS IDEA MAY
HAVE TO BE RECONSIDERED FOR TUES MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  84  60  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  84  61  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  69  82  70  80 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 200901
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
401 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
POSITIONING OF HIGH PRES SYSTEMS INLAND AND LOWER PRES OVER BAY
OF CAMPECHE & SOUTHERN GULF WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
E/NE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THRU MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED PRECIP AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY BUT OVERALL THIS SETUP WILL EFFECTIVELY WILL KEEP DEEPER
GULF MOISTURE OFFSHORE AND PROVIDE VAST MAJORITY OF SE TX WITH A
PLEASANT & DRY WEEK OF WX.

LONGER FETCH OF E/NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL HOWEVER RESULT IN
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS. PROBABLY WON`T HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES ALONG THE COAST, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS TOWARD MIDWEEK NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHEN ASTRONOMICAL
LEVELS ARE HIGHER.

UPPER LOW OVER NCNTL MEXICO EXPECTED TO FILL AND BE ABSORBED BY
THE NEXT TROF (NOW SITUATED OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST) AS IT HEADS
INTO THE CNTL US TOWARD MIDWEEK. RIDGE SHOULD AMPLIFY BEHIND IT
ALLOWING TROF TO DIG SWD INTO THE THE E/SE STATES GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. RESULTING NW/N FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER RIDGING SHOULD
PROVIDE CONTINUED DRY WX THRU THE WEEKEND. 47

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS BEGINNING TO PICK UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
(LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT RELATED TO THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE). TIDES ALSO APPEAR TO BE RESPON-
DING TO THIS INCREASED E/NELY FLOW WITH LEVELS CLOSE TO ONE FT ABOVE
NORMAL ATTM. CAUTION FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY
TONIGHT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS. NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE OVER-
ALL PATTERN (OF MODERATE/STRONG NE/ELY WINDS) UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THIS VFR FCST AS THE NE-ELY FLOW PERSISTS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL LIKELY KEEP A BRIEF MENTION OF PATCHY FG AT
THE USUAL SITES (LBX/CXO) FOR EARLY TUES MORNING. NOT TOO SURE WITH
THE POSSIBLE MENTION OF PCPN FOR GLS THIS MORNING GIVEN THE CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...BUT WILL LIKELY LEAVE TAF DRY FOR NOW. THIS IDEA MAY
HAVE TO BE RECONSIDERED FOR TUES MORNING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  84  60  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  84  61  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  69  82  70  80 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 200854
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

crd/07







000
FXUS64 KSJT 200854
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

crd/07







000
FXUS64 KSJT 200854
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

crd/07







000
FXUS64 KSJT 200854
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.


.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)

GFS and the ECMWF have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the ECMWF has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed PoPs back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  81  57  80  56  79 /  10   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  81  57  79  57  79 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  81  57  80  57  80 /  10   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

crd/07







000
FXUS64 KMAF 200845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show an upper low moving closer and increasing
rain chances, especially west of the Pecos River. Echoes are
decreasing on radar early this morning but should increase again
later today. Some showers could produce brief heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding could be a concern in the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. There is not a lot of movement with the low
so the best rain chances will remain west of Midland through
tomorrow night before finally spreading east on Wednesday.
Unfortunately by that time the low will have weakened so rainfall
amounts will probably not be as high as is expected in the western
CWA.

Most models do not show a front with the passage of the upper low
on Thursday with only the ECMWF showing a weak passage on
Thursday. An upper high does build into the four corners region by
Friday providing northerly upper flow so a weak frontal passage
does not seem out of the question though the only effect may be a
slight wind shift. The current forecast does not have any cooling
behind the front since the upper low is weakening and lifting
northeast, a situation not favorable for surface cold air
advection in west Texas. The high will move out of the four
corners and into Texas over the weekend causing temperatures to
once again rise well above normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  57  71  57  /  40  20  40  30
BIG SPRING TX              79  59  74  58  /  20  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  58  70  59  /  60  50  50  40
DRYDEN TX                  77  63  74  61  /  60  50  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  60  73  59  /  60  40  60  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  52  63  53  /  70  50  50  40
HOBBS NM                   74  55  70  56  /  50  30  40  30
MARFA TX                   70  51  66  50  /  70  50  60  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  58  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
ODESSA TX                  78  59  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
WINK TX                    78  60  74  60  /  50  40  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 200845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show an upper low moving closer and increasing
rain chances, especially west of the Pecos River. Echoes are
decreasing on radar early this morning but should increase again
later today. Some showers could produce brief heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding could be a concern in the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. There is not a lot of movement with the low
so the best rain chances will remain west of Midland through
tomorrow night before finally spreading east on Wednesday.
Unfortunately by that time the low will have weakened so rainfall
amounts will probably not be as high as is expected in the western
CWA.

Most models do not show a front with the passage of the upper low
on Thursday with only the ECMWF showing a weak passage on
Thursday. An upper high does build into the four corners region by
Friday providing northerly upper flow so a weak frontal passage
does not seem out of the question though the only effect may be a
slight wind shift. The current forecast does not have any cooling
behind the front since the upper low is weakening and lifting
northeast, a situation not favorable for surface cold air
advection in west Texas. The high will move out of the four
corners and into Texas over the weekend causing temperatures to
once again rise well above normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  57  71  57  /  40  20  40  30
BIG SPRING TX              79  59  74  58  /  20  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  58  70  59  /  60  50  50  40
DRYDEN TX                  77  63  74  61  /  60  50  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  60  73  59  /  60  40  60  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  52  63  53  /  70  50  50  40
HOBBS NM                   74  55  70  56  /  50  30  40  30
MARFA TX                   70  51  66  50  /  70  50  60  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  58  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
ODESSA TX                  78  59  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
WINK TX                    78  60  74  60  /  50  40  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KEWX 200816
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
316 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OR THINKING OVER THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACROSS
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE
FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA...AND THE MOISTURE AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY WEST FROM WHERE IT IS TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED POPS FORECAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION IS WINNING OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CMC ARE NO
LONGER SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AND NOW SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS EVEN
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE APPEARS
RATHER LIMITED...AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING.
GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  83  61  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  83  55  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  86  57  86 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  59  83  59  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  85  53  86 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  58  84  56  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  64  86  61  87 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  86  58  87 /  10  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






000
FXUS64 KEWX 200816
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
316 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OR THINKING OVER THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACROSS
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE
FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA...AND THE MOISTURE AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY WEST FROM WHERE IT IS TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED POPS FORECAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION IS WINNING OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CMC ARE NO
LONGER SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AND NOW SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS EVEN
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE APPEARS
RATHER LIMITED...AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING.
GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  83  61  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  83  55  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  86  57  86 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  59  83  59  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  85  53  86 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  58  84  56  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  64  86  61  87 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  86  58  87 /  10  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






000
FXUS64 KEWX 200816
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
316 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OR THINKING OVER THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACROSS
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE
FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA...AND THE MOISTURE AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY WEST FROM WHERE IT IS TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED POPS FORECAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION IS WINNING OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CMC ARE NO
LONGER SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AND NOW SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS EVEN
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE APPEARS
RATHER LIMITED...AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING.
GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  83  61  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  83  55  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  86  57  86 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  59  83  59  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  85  53  86 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  58  84  56  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  64  86  61  87 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  86  58  87 /  10  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






000
FXUS64 KEWX 200816
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
316 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST OR THINKING OVER THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...ACROSS
NORTHEAST SONORA MEXICO. DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE
FROM SOUTH TEXAS UP THE RIO GRANDE INTO WEST TEXAS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA...AND THE MOISTURE AXIS BEING NUDGED
SLIGHTLY WEST FROM WHERE IT IS TODAY. ONLY ISOLATED POPS FORECAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION IS WINNING OUT. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/CMC ARE NO
LONGER SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AND NOW SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS EVEN
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. MOISTURE APPEARS
RATHER LIMITED...AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUING.
GENERALLY SEASONAL MORNING LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  83  61  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  83  55  84 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  86  57  86 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  66  83  65  84 /  30  20  30  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  59  83  59  83 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  85  53  86 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  58  84  56  85 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  60  84  58  84 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  64  86  61  87 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  86  58  87 /  10  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






000
FXUS64 KLUB 200754
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
254 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A CLOSED UA LOW WAS PROPAGATING EWRD ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AIDING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SUCH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED BY 10 DEGREES /IN THE 50S/ SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THUS MAKING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/FOG
MORE OF A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
SCOURING LOW CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...THOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ENSUE. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UA LOW NOT
CHANGING MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY /REMAINING SOUTH OF AZ AND
NM/...COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES /MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY THE AFTN/
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

MEANWHILE AN UA TROUGH DIVING ESE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING WILL SEND DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTN...WHERE IT IS POISED TO STALL BEFORE RETREATING NORTH TONIGHT.
THE NAM AND A FEW HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS HINT AT PRECIP DEVELOPING
NEAR THIS FRONT...POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT FOR SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR/MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NRN SOUTH PLAINS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /70S AND
80S/ DUE TO A QUICKER DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG /UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S/ GIVEN A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
00Z WRF-NAM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...ITS TIMING AND EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MUCH DRIER.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS ATTM WITH THE ONLY
MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SPEED UP ONSET AND ENDING OF PRECIP
BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRICKIEST OF THE
WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY WRN AND CNTL PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA.

BEFORE THEN...PRECIP TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR THE SWRN ZONES
AS THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE STRONGER
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT POINT TO BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
BUT WITH A CHANCE OF IT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS THE WRN PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

AFTERWARDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FOR LATE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE MULK OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. WILL THUS PERSIST WITH A DRY AND MILD FCST NUDGING
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  49  71  51  67 /  20  20  10  30  50
TULIA         76  51  74  51  70 /  20  20  10  10  50
PLAINVIEW     75  52  72  53  69 /  30  20  10  10  50
LEVELLAND     75  52  71  53  69 /  40  20  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       77  54  73  54  69 /  30  20  10  20  50
DENVER CITY   74  53  70  54  69 /  40  30  30  30  50
BROWNFIELD    75  53  71  54  70 /  40  20  20  20  50
CHILDRESS     84  55  80  56  74 /  20  10  10  10  30
SPUR          79  55  76  56  73 /  20  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     84  56  78  55  77 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07






000
FXUS64 KLUB 200754
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
254 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A CLOSED UA LOW WAS PROPAGATING EWRD ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AIDING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SUCH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED BY 10 DEGREES /IN THE 50S/ SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THUS MAKING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/FOG
MORE OF A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
SCOURING LOW CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...THOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ENSUE. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UA LOW NOT
CHANGING MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY /REMAINING SOUTH OF AZ AND
NM/...COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES /MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY THE AFTN/
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

MEANWHILE AN UA TROUGH DIVING ESE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING WILL SEND DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTN...WHERE IT IS POISED TO STALL BEFORE RETREATING NORTH TONIGHT.
THE NAM AND A FEW HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS HINT AT PRECIP DEVELOPING
NEAR THIS FRONT...POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT FOR SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR/MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NRN SOUTH PLAINS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /70S AND
80S/ DUE TO A QUICKER DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG /UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S/ GIVEN A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
00Z WRF-NAM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...ITS TIMING AND EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MUCH DRIER.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS ATTM WITH THE ONLY
MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SPEED UP ONSET AND ENDING OF PRECIP
BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRICKIEST OF THE
WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY WRN AND CNTL PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA.

BEFORE THEN...PRECIP TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR THE SWRN ZONES
AS THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE STRONGER
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT POINT TO BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
BUT WITH A CHANCE OF IT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS THE WRN PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

AFTERWARDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FOR LATE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE MULK OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. WILL THUS PERSIST WITH A DRY AND MILD FCST NUDGING
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  49  71  51  67 /  20  20  10  30  50
TULIA         76  51  74  51  70 /  20  20  10  10  50
PLAINVIEW     75  52  72  53  69 /  30  20  10  10  50
LEVELLAND     75  52  71  53  69 /  40  20  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       77  54  73  54  69 /  30  20  10  20  50
DENVER CITY   74  53  70  54  69 /  40  30  30  30  50
BROWNFIELD    75  53  71  54  70 /  40  20  20  20  50
CHILDRESS     84  55  80  56  74 /  20  10  10  10  30
SPUR          79  55  76  56  73 /  20  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     84  56  78  55  77 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 200754
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
254 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A CLOSED UA LOW WAS PROPAGATING EWRD ACROSS NWRN OLD MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AIDING TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS SUCH DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED BY 10 DEGREES /IN THE 50S/ SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THUS MAKING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/FOG
MORE OF A POSSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
SCOURING LOW CLOUDS BY MID-MORNING...THOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL ENSUE. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UA LOW NOT
CHANGING MUCH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY /REMAINING SOUTH OF AZ AND
NM/...COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES /MID-LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY THE AFTN/
MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER LIKE YESTERDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

MEANWHILE AN UA TROUGH DIVING ESE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING WILL SEND DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTN...WHERE IT IS POISED TO STALL BEFORE RETREATING NORTH TONIGHT.
THE NAM AND A FEW HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS HINT AT PRECIP DEVELOPING
NEAR THIS FRONT...POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT FOR SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR/MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR NRN SOUTH PLAINS.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /70S AND
80S/ DUE TO A QUICKER DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVG /UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S/ GIVEN A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME DRAWING IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
00Z WRF-NAM SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM...ITS TIMING AND EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE AND MUCH DRIER.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS ATTM WITH THE ONLY
MEANINGFUL ADJUSTMENT BEING TO SPEED UP ONSET AND ENDING OF PRECIP
BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRICKIEST OF THE
WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS FCST...MAINLY WRN AND CNTL PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA.

BEFORE THEN...PRECIP TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR THE SWRN ZONES
AS THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE STRONGER
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT POINT TO BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
BUT WITH A CHANCE OF IT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS THE WRN PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA.

AFTERWARDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS FOR LATE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE MULK OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE SRN PLAINS. WILL THUS PERSIST WITH A DRY AND MILD FCST NUDGING
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  49  71  51  67 /  20  20  10  30  50
TULIA         76  51  74  51  70 /  20  20  10  10  50
PLAINVIEW     75  52  72  53  69 /  30  20  10  10  50
LEVELLAND     75  52  71  53  69 /  40  20  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       77  54  73  54  69 /  30  20  10  20  50
DENVER CITY   74  53  70  54  69 /  40  30  30  30  50
BROWNFIELD    75  53  71  54  70 /  40  20  20  20  50
CHILDRESS     84  55  80  56  74 /  20  10  10  10  30
SPUR          79  55  76  56  73 /  20  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     84  56  78  55  77 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07






000
FXUS64 KCRP 200540
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1240 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/IFR THRU REST OF TONIGHT AT KVCT WITH VFR
GENERALLY PREVAILING AT KCRP/KLRD/KALI. AS OF WRITING...VSBYS AT
KVCT WERE ALREADY APPROACHING IFR LEVELS WITH REDUCED VSBYS EXPCTD
TO PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT. FROM KLRD EAST TO KCRP...BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR GENERALLY PREVAILING
OTHERWISE. CONDITIONS AT KVCT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MRNG
MON AND CONTINUE THRU REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS FROM KLRD
TO KCRP SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL AT VFR DRNG THE DAY
MONDAY...HOWEVER SCT SHRA ARE XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI/KLRD WITH TEMPO
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIEST SHRA. HAVE PROB30
GROUPING FOR KCRP AND KALI FROM MID/LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN AND
FOR MID AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING AT KLRD. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
IMPACTNG KVCT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. GENERALLY LIGHT
ERLY WINDS THRU TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS DRNG THE DAY
MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 200540 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1240 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/IFR THRU REST OF TONIGHT AT KVCT WITH VFR
GENERALLY PREVAILING AT KCRP/KLRD/KALI. AS OF WRITING...VSBYS AT
KVCT WERE ALREADY APPROACHING IFR LEVELS WITH REDUCED VSBYS EXPCTD
TO PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT. FROM KLRD EAST TO KCRP...BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR GENERALLY PREVAILING
OTHERWISE. CONDITIONS AT KVCT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MRNG
MON AND CONTINUE THRU REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS FROM KLRD
TO KCRP SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL AT VFR DRNG THE DAY
MONDAY...HOWEVER SCT SHRA ARE XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI/KLRD WITH TEMPO
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIEST SHRA. HAVE PROB30
GROUPING FOR KCRP AND KALI FROM MID/LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN AND
FOR MID AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING AT KLRD. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
IMPACTNG KVCT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. GENERALLY LIGHT
ERLY WINDS THRU TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS DRNG THE DAY
MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 200540 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1240 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/IFR THRU REST OF TONIGHT AT KVCT WITH VFR
GENERALLY PREVAILING AT KCRP/KLRD/KALI. AS OF WRITING...VSBYS AT
KVCT WERE ALREADY APPROACHING IFR LEVELS WITH REDUCED VSBYS EXPCTD
TO PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT. FROM KLRD EAST TO KCRP...BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR GENERALLY PREVAILING
OTHERWISE. CONDITIONS AT KVCT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MRNG
MON AND CONTINUE THRU REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS FROM KLRD
TO KCRP SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL AT VFR DRNG THE DAY
MONDAY...HOWEVER SCT SHRA ARE XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI/KLRD WITH TEMPO
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIEST SHRA. HAVE PROB30
GROUPING FOR KCRP AND KALI FROM MID/LATE MRNG THRU THE AFTN AND
FOR MID AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING AT KLRD. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
IMPACTNG KVCT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. GENERALLY LIGHT
ERLY WINDS THRU TONIGHT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS DRNG THE DAY
MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KBRO 200529
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE TERMINALS TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
DURING THE DAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA MOVING CLOSER
TO THE TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AFTER 15Z WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
AND HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. CEILINGS WERE GENERALLY ABOVE 12000FT AT MOST
AERODROMES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT BEFORE MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MON MORNING AS LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A 500MB LOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO MOVING EASTWARD AND A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
BAY OF CAMPECHE. POSSIBLE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND SLOW MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SYSTEM AND A NORTHWARD EXTENDING
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO WILL BE THE
SOURCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST IS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
GULF WITH DRIER AIR. A WEAK BOUNDARY RUNS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF...CROSSING INLAND ALONG THE MID TEXAS COAST. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...WHICH ALSO SEEMS TO BE HOLDING MOST CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE FINALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
AND UPPER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SCT TO BKN REMNANT HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT EAST WINDS WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY...A LITTLE BETTER CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AS A RESULT OF SURFACE TROUGHING...AND LOCAL WINDS WILL BACK
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WILL SUPPORT GULF WIDE LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS. MODELS
MAINTAIN OR INCREASE POP CHANCES NOT ONLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT
ACROSS THE RIVER FROM THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY AS WELL. SOME OF THAT
ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SLOW
MOVING AND HEAVY RAINING STORMS. HIGH TEMPS 80 TO 85.

MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION INLAND WILL WANE BUT COASTAL SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLAY. LOW TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LLVL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR IN LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEING
HELD IN PLACE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE CHURNING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ENOUGH GENERAL
INSTABILITY IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO CONTINUE TO SPARK
SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DURING PEAK
HEATING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE NE
THROUGH THE GULF LATER WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL LET THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SLIDE SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH
DRIER REGIME INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE ONLY DAY IN DISPUTE IS
THURSDAY...VARYING ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE WILL DEPART.
LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH PUSHES MOISTURE OUT
FASTER AND BRINGS A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

SOME CONCERN LATER IN THE WEEK AS LONG WAVE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF
PUSHES LARGER SEAS ASHORE. THIS WILL ARRIVE AT THE TIME OF A NEW
MOON...SO WAVE ACTION APPROACHING THE DUNES IS A POSSIBILITY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO
PRODUCE MODERATE EAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. A SFC LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST
WILL SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE LWR TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG FETCH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...FLOWING BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LONGER PERIOD SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE CAMPECHE LOW WILL BE DRIFTING TO THE
NE...ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE TO SINK INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL TURN SEAS MORE TO THE NE. LIGHTER WINDS LATE INT HE WEEK WILL
ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO RELAX DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FEET...LIKELY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66







000
FXUS64 KBRO 200529
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1229 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE TERMINALS TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
DURING THE DAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA MOVING CLOSER
TO THE TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AFTER 15Z WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
AND HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. CEILINGS WERE GENERALLY ABOVE 12000FT AT MOST
AERODROMES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT BEFORE MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MON MORNING AS LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A 500MB LOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO MOVING EASTWARD AND A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
BAY OF CAMPECHE. POSSIBLE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND SLOW MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SYSTEM AND A NORTHWARD EXTENDING
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO WILL BE THE
SOURCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST IS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
GULF WITH DRIER AIR. A WEAK BOUNDARY RUNS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF...CROSSING INLAND ALONG THE MID TEXAS COAST. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...WHICH ALSO SEEMS TO BE HOLDING MOST CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE FINALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
AND UPPER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SCT TO BKN REMNANT HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT EAST WINDS WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY...A LITTLE BETTER CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AS A RESULT OF SURFACE TROUGHING...AND LOCAL WINDS WILL BACK
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WILL SUPPORT GULF WIDE LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS. MODELS
MAINTAIN OR INCREASE POP CHANCES NOT ONLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT
ACROSS THE RIVER FROM THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY AS WELL. SOME OF THAT
ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SLOW
MOVING AND HEAVY RAINING STORMS. HIGH TEMPS 80 TO 85.

MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION INLAND WILL WANE BUT COASTAL SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLAY. LOW TEMPS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LLVL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR IN LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEING
HELD IN PLACE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE CHURNING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ENOUGH GENERAL
INSTABILITY IN THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO CONTINUE TO SPARK
SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DURING PEAK
HEATING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TO THE NE
THROUGH THE GULF LATER WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL LET THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SLIDE SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH
DRIER REGIME INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE ONLY DAY IN DISPUTE IS
THURSDAY...VARYING ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE WILL DEPART.
LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH PUSHES MOISTURE OUT
FASTER AND BRINGS A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

SOME CONCERN LATER IN THE WEEK AS LONG WAVE FETCH ACROSS THE GULF
PUSHES LARGER SEAS ASHORE. THIS WILL ARRIVE AT THE TIME OF A NEW
MOON...SO WAVE ACTION APPROACHING THE DUNES IS A POSSIBILITY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO
PRODUCE MODERATE EAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. A SFC LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST
WILL SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE LWR TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG FETCH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...FLOWING BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LONGER PERIOD SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE CAMPECHE LOW WILL BE DRIFTING TO THE
NE...ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE TO SINK INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
WILL TURN SEAS MORE TO THE NE. LIGHTER WINDS LATE INT HE WEEK WILL
ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO RELAX DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FEET...LIKELY CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/66






000
FXUS64 KAMA 200524
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF ALL TAF SITES.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO HAS KEPT THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WHILE THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
MOSTLY CLEAR. VORT LOBES SENT OFF FROM THIS CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ALIVE
THROUGH TUESDAY. ONE SUCH LOBE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL STAY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
WEEK TO SEE PRECIP AREA WIDE. A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO WEDNESDAY MORNING A PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A 35KT-40KT LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING IN AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 25KT COULD ALLOW US TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. FORECAST PWATS ARE
APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL +2SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO WE COULD
SEE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.

THERE WAS A DRASTIC SWING WITH THE 12 GFS WHICH PLACES IT IS STARK
CONTRAST TO OTHER MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST
STICKS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AND DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING SO HAVE CUT OFF PRECIP
CHANCES BY THIS POINT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE GFS WHICH DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 200524
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SPEEDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHWEST OF ALL TAF SITES.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO HAS KEPT THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WHILE THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN
MOSTLY CLEAR. VORT LOBES SENT OFF FROM THIS CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ALIVE
THROUGH TUESDAY. ONE SUCH LOBE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL STAY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING REMAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
WEEK TO SEE PRECIP AREA WIDE. A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO WEDNESDAY MORNING A PROVIDE LARGE
SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A 35KT-40KT LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BRING IN AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 25KT COULD ALLOW US TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. FORECAST PWATS ARE
APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL +2SD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO WE COULD
SEE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET.

THERE WAS A DRASTIC SWING WITH THE 12 GFS WHICH PLACES IT IS STARK
CONTRAST TO OTHER MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST
STICKS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AND DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING SO HAVE CUT OFF PRECIP
CHANCES BY THIS POINT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE GFS WHICH DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY ONWARD AND HIGH TEMPERATES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMAF 200522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected for much of the night with
TEMPO MVFR ceilings expected at the terminals in the 12z to 16z
Monday time frame. An upper level low pressure area across northern
Mexico will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the southeast New Mexico plains and west Texas during
the day Monday. Confidence was high enough to include prob 30
groups from 15z to 21z Monday for MVFR conditions in -TSRA at
KCNM, KPEQ, KFST.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will likely stay east of all area terminals through
tonight.  VFR conditions will persist through the evening, but
expect MVFR ceilings to develop at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas TAF sites by 20/12Z.  Ceilings may dip to IFR early Monday
morning, in addition to MVFR visibilities in fog possibly
materializing.  For now, will include the MVFR ceilings.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CDT Sunday...Satl imagery is indc a
weak upper low over Northern Baja California moving slowly east.
Ahead of this low diffluent flow aloft and a couple of weak
disturbances are bring scattered/isolated showers/thunderstorms to
the CWA. The greatest concentration of shower activity is in the
southern and eastern CWA at this time.

Models are in general agreement in opening up the upper low into a
trough and moving it very slowly east. This will keep the threat
of showers/thunderstorms through the middle of the upcoming work
week. The best chance of showers/thunderstorms will be in the west
during the beginning of the week...with better chances further
east Wednesday/Wednesday night as the trough moves over West
Texas. Daytime high temps will be near normal with the ample cloud
cover...with overnight low temps above normal.

A strong northern stream upper system will drop south southeast to
the Gulf Coast along the TX/LA border by the end of the week. This
will result in a positively tilted ridge building over AZ/NM/West
Texas with a northerly flow aloft. This will bring dry weather to
the CWA starting late Thursday and continuing right thru next
weekend. Temps will warm to above normal as H85 temps warm.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  72  54  70  /  30  30  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              58  75  58  74  /  30  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                56  72  55  68  /  30  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  64  79  62  77  /  20  40  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  73  57  74  /  30  50  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  63  50  62  /  40  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   54  70  53  68  /  40  50  40  30
MARFA TX                   51  66  51  65  /  50  70  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  75  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
ODESSA TX                  57  74  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
WINK TX                    59  71  57  73  /  30  50  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/33

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 200522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected for much of the night with
TEMPO MVFR ceilings expected at the terminals in the 12z to 16z
Monday time frame. An upper level low pressure area across northern
Mexico will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the southeast New Mexico plains and west Texas during
the day Monday. Confidence was high enough to include prob 30
groups from 15z to 21z Monday for MVFR conditions in -TSRA at
KCNM, KPEQ, KFST.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will likely stay east of all area terminals through
tonight.  VFR conditions will persist through the evening, but
expect MVFR ceilings to develop at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas TAF sites by 20/12Z.  Ceilings may dip to IFR early Monday
morning, in addition to MVFR visibilities in fog possibly
materializing.  For now, will include the MVFR ceilings.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CDT Sunday...Satl imagery is indc a
weak upper low over Northern Baja California moving slowly east.
Ahead of this low diffluent flow aloft and a couple of weak
disturbances are bring scattered/isolated showers/thunderstorms to
the CWA. The greatest concentration of shower activity is in the
southern and eastern CWA at this time.

Models are in general agreement in opening up the upper low into a
trough and moving it very slowly east. This will keep the threat
of showers/thunderstorms through the middle of the upcoming work
week. The best chance of showers/thunderstorms will be in the west
during the beginning of the week...with better chances further
east Wednesday/Wednesday night as the trough moves over West
Texas. Daytime high temps will be near normal with the ample cloud
cover...with overnight low temps above normal.

A strong northern stream upper system will drop south southeast to
the Gulf Coast along the TX/LA border by the end of the week. This
will result in a positively tilted ridge building over AZ/NM/West
Texas with a northerly flow aloft. This will bring dry weather to
the CWA starting late Thursday and continuing right thru next
weekend. Temps will warm to above normal as H85 temps warm.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  72  54  70  /  30  30  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              58  75  58  74  /  30  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                56  72  55  68  /  30  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  64  79  62  77  /  20  40  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  73  57  74  /  30  50  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  63  50  62  /  40  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   54  70  53  68  /  40  50  40  30
MARFA TX                   51  66  51  65  /  50  70  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  75  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
ODESSA TX                  57  74  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
WINK TX                    59  71  57  73  /  30  50  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/33

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KFWD 200451
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1151 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF TAF SITES.


&&

.UPDATE...
A QUIET NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO OUR EAST. ADJUSTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SEVERAL PLACES BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
THE UPDATE.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT INDUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING CONTINUED
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER UPPER LOW WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT VERY SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHWEST MEXICO UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST...WEAKEN AND LINGER
OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN
MEXICO AREA AS IT GETS CUT OFF FROM STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS THE EARLY HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY AS WELL...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND
65 DEGREES EACH MORNING WITH URBAN AREAS SEEING THE WARMEST VALUES.

WE START TO SEE CHANGES ALOFT IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ABSORB THE FAR WEST
TEXAS/MEXICO DISTURBANCE. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER IS WHERE THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HOW FAR EAST IT PROGRESSES. THE
EURO AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE ENERGY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND LEAST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS AND
EURO ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE CMC HANGS THE ENERGY AND THE
BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT NORTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF
AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL BE THE KEY. THE EURO GIVES US THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN...WHILE THE CMC AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY DRY. OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW IT AFFECTS TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. I HELD THESE LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING MAY POSSIBLY BE
AND WILL AWAIT FOR MODELS TO BETTER RESOLVE THE ENERGY AND
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CAA BY FRIDAY BY THE CMC AND EURO
WOULD MEAN AN OVERALL COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE IN QUICKER WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FELT A MEAN BETWEEN
THE TWO SCENARIOS WILL BE THE WAY TO GO UNTIL MODELS COME TO A
CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH EAST
OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND FOR A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  83  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              61  82  58  83  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             49  77  59  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            56  82  60  82  59 /   5  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  80  59  82  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            59  82  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            62  81  59  82  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  83  59  83  57 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 200451
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1151 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF TAF SITES.


&&

.UPDATE...
A QUIET NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO OUR EAST. ADJUSTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SEVERAL PLACES BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
THE UPDATE.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT INDUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING CONTINUED
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER UPPER LOW WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT VERY SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHWEST MEXICO UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST...WEAKEN AND LINGER
OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN
MEXICO AREA AS IT GETS CUT OFF FROM STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS THE EARLY HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY AS WELL...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND
65 DEGREES EACH MORNING WITH URBAN AREAS SEEING THE WARMEST VALUES.

WE START TO SEE CHANGES ALOFT IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ABSORB THE FAR WEST
TEXAS/MEXICO DISTURBANCE. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER IS WHERE THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HOW FAR EAST IT PROGRESSES. THE
EURO AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE ENERGY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND LEAST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS AND
EURO ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE CMC HANGS THE ENERGY AND THE
BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT NORTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF
AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL BE THE KEY. THE EURO GIVES US THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN...WHILE THE CMC AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY DRY. OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW IT AFFECTS TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. I HELD THESE LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING MAY POSSIBLY BE
AND WILL AWAIT FOR MODELS TO BETTER RESOLVE THE ENERGY AND
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CAA BY FRIDAY BY THE CMC AND EURO
WOULD MEAN AN OVERALL COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE IN QUICKER WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FELT A MEAN BETWEEN
THE TWO SCENARIOS WILL BE THE WAY TO GO UNTIL MODELS COME TO A
CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH EAST
OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND FOR A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  83  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              61  82  58  83  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             49  77  59  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            56  82  60  82  59 /   5  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  80  59  82  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            59  82  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            62  81  59  82  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  83  59  83  57 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KLUB 200447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PROSPECTS FOR FOG AT KLBB THIS MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. AT
THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPACTS BUT GIVEN
THE SETUP...SUSPECT WE WILL SEE VISIBILITY REDUCE TO IFR LEVELS
/70 PCT CONFIDENCE/ AT LEAST UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING. TSTM CHANCES
EXIST AT BOTH TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS AN MCV TYPE FEATURE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MOVING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS UNDERGONE
A LARGE BUMP TODAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WERE OBSERVED AREA WIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
GENERATED SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY VALUES WERE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT STILL MOSTLY CAPPED. MOST OF THE CAP
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RISK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR SOME
OF THE CAPPING AND THUS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY FURTHER. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN MEXICO
ALLOWING FOR A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE APPROACHING TROF WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE TROF AXIS WILL START TO CROSS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...CANNOT SEE WHY
WE WOULD NOT SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH
THE GFS CARRYING THE CORE OF THE JET OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CORE SOUTH. ECMWF SOLUTION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WOULD BE OVER THE
REGION. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRECIP FORECAST WAS TO TAPER OFF THE
TAIL END OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
THE TIMING OF THE TROF AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR MID-WEEK THANKS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TRIMMED BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH THIS IN MIND.

BACK END OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION KEEPING DRY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  72  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
TULIA         51  77  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  76  52  74  53 /  10  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     54  74  52  73  53 /  20  40  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       54  75  54  74  54 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   54  72  51  71  54 /  20  40  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  74  53  73  54 /  20  40  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     56  82  57  81  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  57  78  55 /  10  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  80  57  80  56 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





000
FXUS64 KLUB 200447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PROSPECTS FOR FOG AT KLBB THIS MONDAY
MORNING AS WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. AT
THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPACTS BUT GIVEN
THE SETUP...SUSPECT WE WILL SEE VISIBILITY REDUCE TO IFR LEVELS
/70 PCT CONFIDENCE/ AT LEAST UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING. TSTM CHANCES
EXIST AT BOTH TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS AN MCV TYPE FEATURE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MOVING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS UNDERGONE
A LARGE BUMP TODAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WERE OBSERVED AREA WIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
GENERATED SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY VALUES WERE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT STILL MOSTLY CAPPED. MOST OF THE CAP
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RISK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR SOME
OF THE CAPPING AND THUS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY FURTHER. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN MEXICO
ALLOWING FOR A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE APPROACHING TROF WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE TROF AXIS WILL START TO CROSS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...CANNOT SEE WHY
WE WOULD NOT SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH
THE GFS CARRYING THE CORE OF THE JET OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CORE SOUTH. ECMWF SOLUTION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WOULD BE OVER THE
REGION. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRECIP FORECAST WAS TO TAPER OFF THE
TAIL END OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
THE TIMING OF THE TROF AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR MID-WEEK THANKS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TRIMMED BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH THIS IN MIND.

BACK END OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION KEEPING DRY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  72  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
TULIA         51  77  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  76  52  74  53 /  10  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     54  74  52  73  53 /  20  40  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       54  75  54  74  54 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   54  72  51  71  54 /  20  40  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  74  53  73  54 /  20  40  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     56  82  57  81  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  57  78  55 /  10  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  80  57  80  56 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26






000
FXUS64 KEWX 200444
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS LATE COMING IN TONIGHT SO NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
NEW DATA TO LOOK AT...SO AS A RESULT ONLY TWEAKED THE ONGOING SET OF
TAFS WITH DELAYING THE ONSET OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS CLOSER TO DAWN.
NO MENTION OF POP IN THE FORECAST AS CHANCES REMAIN TO LOW. SKIES
SHOULD GO VFR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...
OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS A MOIST AXIS REMAINS
OVER THIS REGION TONIGHT. WE/LL RETAIN A 20% CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW
OUT NEAR DRT TO INPUT ANY MENTION OF SH/TS BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY
AS LINGERING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COULD AFFECT THE DRT
SITE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MID CLOUD AROUND 6-8KFT REMAINS ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
TOMORROW AS RH TIME SECTIONS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MVFR TO DEVELOP AT DRT/SAT/SSF TOWARD DAWN AND THEN CONTINUING
UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY. OUTSIDE SHOT OF GETTING SOME BRIEF IFR
SO MAY ADD AT LEAST A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE IF THE
00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A
RETURN OF VFR ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DUE
TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED ALONG AND MOSTLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
UPWARD MOTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD MOTION TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE KEEPING THE PLAINS
STATES TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF...GEM AND NAVGEM SWING THE PLAINS STATES
TROUGH THROUGH TEXAS AND NOW SHOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN TEXAS THAT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PLAINS TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS...THOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO
A DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT MENTION POPS. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS...NO POPS ARE EXPECTED. SHOULD THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BE FURTHER WEST THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  83  63  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  83  58  84  54 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  81  60  82  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  82  65  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  82  59  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  84  61  86  58 /  10  10  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  84  61  85  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  84  64  86  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  85  64  86  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24






000
FXUS64 KEWX 200444
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING OVERHEAD FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS LATE COMING IN TONIGHT SO NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
NEW DATA TO LOOK AT...SO AS A RESULT ONLY TWEAKED THE ONGOING SET OF
TAFS WITH DELAYING THE ONSET OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS CLOSER TO DAWN.
NO MENTION OF POP IN THE FORECAST AS CHANCES REMAIN TO LOW. SKIES
SHOULD GO VFR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT BRINGING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...
OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS A MOIST AXIS REMAINS
OVER THIS REGION TONIGHT. WE/LL RETAIN A 20% CHANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW
OUT NEAR DRT TO INPUT ANY MENTION OF SH/TS BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY
AS LINGERING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COULD AFFECT THE DRT
SITE OVERNIGHT. PLENTY OF MID CLOUD AROUND 6-8KFT REMAINS ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
TOMORROW AS RH TIME SECTIONS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
MVFR TO DEVELOP AT DRT/SAT/SSF TOWARD DAWN AND THEN CONTINUING
UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY. OUTSIDE SHOT OF GETTING SOME BRIEF IFR
SO MAY ADD AT LEAST A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE IF THE
00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND. MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A
RETURN OF VFR ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DUE
TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED ALONG AND MOSTLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING
UPWARD MOTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL PROVIDE UPWARD MOTION TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PERSISTS WHILE THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND WEAKENS WHILE LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. MOIST AXIS
REMAINS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE KEEPING THE PLAINS
STATES TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF...GEM AND NAVGEM SWING THE PLAINS STATES
TROUGH THROUGH TEXAS AND NOW SHOW THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN TEXAS THAT
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE PLAINS TROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS...THOUGH IT IS MOVING INTO
A DRIER AIRMASS AND WILL NOT MENTION POPS. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW AND
ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS...NO POPS ARE EXPECTED. SHOULD THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BE FURTHER WEST THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  83  63  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  83  58  84  54 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            60  81  60  82  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  82  65  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  82  59  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  84  61  86  58 /  10  10  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        61  84  61  85  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  62  85  58 /  -   -   10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  84  64  86  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  85  64  86  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24





000
FXUS64 KSJT 200429
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1128 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Expect stratus to develop across West Central Texas overnight,
with MVFR CIGS at most of the terminals by 10Z, and at the KABI
terminal by 13Z. Plan for VFR conditions to return to all terminals
by 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings to return to West Central Texas overnight.
The GFS and NAM are in good agreement, with onset beginning around
10Z. Plan for VFR conditions to return to all terminals by 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing
along a line from northern Crockett County to just south of Big
Spring, along a low level instability axis. These showers and
thunderstorms are generally moving to the north/northwest
following south to southeasterly flow through roughly 15kft.
However, as some of the stronger storms reach higher altitudes,
and get into westerly flow aloft, they are drifting eastward as
well. Even with some of these storms gaining some eastward
momentum, most of the convection is expected to be west of a
Sweetwater to Sonora line, so have kept the same basic PoP
alignment as was inherited from the previous forecast. No severe
thunderstorms are expected, but a few gusty winds and cloud to
ground lightning is possible. After sunset, expect the convective
activity to diminish, so have trimmed coverage of thunderstorm
wording back to the west after 06Z.

We will have a similar synoptic set up tomorrow with the
approaching large trough bringing lift into west Texas. However,
the best low level instability shifts to the west, indicating
lower chances for convection in our area, so have kept chances at
mainly 20 percent or less, and shifted coverage slightly westward
as well.

Temperatures will continue to be near or slightly warmer than
normal with lows in the mid to upper 50s tonight, and highs from
the upper 70s to the lower 80s tomorrow.

20

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

A rather unsettled weather pattern will persist across the south-
central CONUS. A slow-moving southern stream cyclone will move
slowly across northern Mexico early in the week, eventually
lifting northeast and weakening on Tuesday. This setup will
provide modest synoptic scale ascent across the region Monday
evening and Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop both days, primarily during
the afternoon and evening hours. The best rain chances will be
focused over the Permian Basin, but will exist as far east as a
Sterling City, to San Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances are
expected to diminish around sunset as we lose surface heating.

As this upper low weakens, a stronger northern stream trough will
dig across the western CONUS. The ECMWF and GEM are more amplified
with this feature, while the GFS depicts a weaker trough. The
12z GFS ensemble 500 mb height members show a cluster near that of
the control run, with a few slightly deeper outliers. Thus,
confidence in these differing solutions is low, but skewed
slightly toward the stronger ECMWF and GEM. This favored solution
also brings a weak cold front (or surface trough) into the area on
Thursday (while the GFS maintains southerly flow).

This trough is progged to move east of the area late Thursday,
providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low PoPs (20-30%)
were maintained for Wednesday and Thursday, favoring the northern
zones, which should be closer to the large scale forcing.
Regardless, it doesn`t look like this will be a big rain event,
despite the PoPs lingering over a 4-5 day period. Midweek
temperatures will range from overnight lows in the mid/upper 50s
to highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.

By Friday, drier air will move into the area as a ridge develops
over the southern Rockies into the Plains. This should provide
fair skies and warm temperatures through Sunday. Expect highs this
weekend in the upper 70s to lower 80s (could be a bit warmer) with
overnight lows in the low/mid 50s.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  81  56  80  57 /  10  10   5   5  10
San Angelo  58  81  57  80  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  59  82  57  79  55 /  10  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








000
FXUS64 KSJT 200429
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1128 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Expect stratus to develop across West Central Texas overnight,
with MVFR CIGS at most of the terminals by 10Z, and at the KABI
terminal by 13Z. Plan for VFR conditions to return to all terminals
by 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings to return to West Central Texas overnight.
The GFS and NAM are in good agreement, with onset beginning around
10Z. Plan for VFR conditions to return to all terminals by 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing
along a line from northern Crockett County to just south of Big
Spring, along a low level instability axis. These showers and
thunderstorms are generally moving to the north/northwest
following south to southeasterly flow through roughly 15kft.
However, as some of the stronger storms reach higher altitudes,
and get into westerly flow aloft, they are drifting eastward as
well. Even with some of these storms gaining some eastward
momentum, most of the convection is expected to be west of a
Sweetwater to Sonora line, so have kept the same basic PoP
alignment as was inherited from the previous forecast. No severe
thunderstorms are expected, but a few gusty winds and cloud to
ground lightning is possible. After sunset, expect the convective
activity to diminish, so have trimmed coverage of thunderstorm
wording back to the west after 06Z.

We will have a similar synoptic set up tomorrow with the
approaching large trough bringing lift into west Texas. However,
the best low level instability shifts to the west, indicating
lower chances for convection in our area, so have kept chances at
mainly 20 percent or less, and shifted coverage slightly westward
as well.

Temperatures will continue to be near or slightly warmer than
normal with lows in the mid to upper 50s tonight, and highs from
the upper 70s to the lower 80s tomorrow.

20

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

A rather unsettled weather pattern will persist across the south-
central CONUS. A slow-moving southern stream cyclone will move
slowly across northern Mexico early in the week, eventually
lifting northeast and weakening on Tuesday. This setup will
provide modest synoptic scale ascent across the region Monday
evening and Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop both days, primarily during
the afternoon and evening hours. The best rain chances will be
focused over the Permian Basin, but will exist as far east as a
Sterling City, to San Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances are
expected to diminish around sunset as we lose surface heating.

As this upper low weakens, a stronger northern stream trough will
dig across the western CONUS. The ECMWF and GEM are more amplified
with this feature, while the GFS depicts a weaker trough. The
12z GFS ensemble 500 mb height members show a cluster near that of
the control run, with a few slightly deeper outliers. Thus,
confidence in these differing solutions is low, but skewed
slightly toward the stronger ECMWF and GEM. This favored solution
also brings a weak cold front (or surface trough) into the area on
Thursday (while the GFS maintains southerly flow).

This trough is progged to move east of the area late Thursday,
providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low PoPs (20-30%)
were maintained for Wednesday and Thursday, favoring the northern
zones, which should be closer to the large scale forcing.
Regardless, it doesn`t look like this will be a big rain event,
despite the PoPs lingering over a 4-5 day period. Midweek
temperatures will range from overnight lows in the mid/upper 50s
to highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.

By Friday, drier air will move into the area as a ridge develops
over the southern Rockies into the Plains. This should provide
fair skies and warm temperatures through Sunday. Expect highs this
weekend in the upper 70s to lower 80s (could be a bit warmer) with
overnight lows in the low/mid 50s.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  81  56  80  57 /  10  10   5   5  10
San Angelo  58  81  57  80  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
Junction  59  82  57  79  55 /  10  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KCRP 200324
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1024 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
FOLLOW TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS
ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/DEVELOP WEST OF STATE ROAD
16 UNTIL AROUND 03Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A TRANSITION FROM VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT TO A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTED. AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN SECTIONS 12-15Z
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN HOURS MONDAY. GENERALLY LGT
E/NE SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LGT EAST FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED IN MEX WITH A FEW WEAK ECHOES OCCASIONALLY MOVG
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO WESTERN WEBB CO. IN ADDITION...RADAR IS
SHOWING WEAK ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK
SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THE CONVECTION IN MEX...IS SLOWLY MOVG NE AND
IS PROGD TO CONTINUE TRACKING NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THEREFORE COULD STILL SEE SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
AND WEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING A LULL BY LATE EVENING THEN ISOLD SHRA`S
REDVLP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL BEND TOWARD
MON MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RAIN CHCS FOR MON AS GUIDANCE
GREATLY VARIES. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE PROGS AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR
CRP WHILE THE GFS IS PROGING 35 PERCENT. DECIDED TO GO WITH A 40
POP FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND ON MON AND KEPT THE 30`S FARTHER
WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE SRN CWA ON MONDAY AND ARE SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
LIFTING N INTO THE S CWA. WILL ALSO HAVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER WITHOUT A DEFINED BDRY/FOCUS...IT IS
HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LOCATED. DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CRP AREA ON SAT...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN THAT IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS...WILL NOT GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A
SLIGHT CHC MON EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS...WENT CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE STILL LINGERS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST
AREAS TUESDAY (NORTHEAST CWA REMAINS DRY)...AND THEN LIMITING POPS
TO JUST THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SURFACE/LOW LVL LOW WILL BE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WITH AN UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DURING
THE PERIOD THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE GULF.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. GFS CONTINUES SHOWING BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF HAS BEGUN CUTTING OF A LOW AND SENDING IT
DOWN THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND THEN
SPINNING THE LOW OFF IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GFS
RATHER TAKES THIS SAME TROUGH/LOW WHILE IT IS STILL OVER THE CENTRAL
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND ABSORBS IT INTO THE DEEP NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME KEPT WITH LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BETTER HANDLE THIS SETUP.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL DROP SOME DURING THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 200324 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1024 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
FOLLOW TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS
ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/DEVELOP WEST OF STATE ROAD
16 UNTIL AROUND 03Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A TRANSITION FROM VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT TO A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTED. AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN SECTIONS 12-15Z
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN HOURS MONDAY. GENERALLY LGT
E/NE SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LGT EAST FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED IN MEX WITH A FEW WEAK ECHOES OCCASIONALLY MOVG
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO WESTERN WEBB CO. IN ADDITION...RADAR IS
SHOWING WEAK ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK
SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THE CONVECTION IN MEX...IS SLOWLY MOVG NE AND
IS PROGD TO CONTINUE TRACKING NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THEREFORE COULD STILL SEE SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
AND WEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING A LULL BY LATE EVENING THEN ISOLD SHRA`S
REDVLP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL BEND TOWARD
MON MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RAIN CHCS FOR MON AS GUIDANCE
GREATLY VARIES. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE PROGS AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR
CRP WHILE THE GFS IS PROGING 35 PERCENT. DECIDED TO GO WITH A 40
POP FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND ON MON AND KEPT THE 30`S FARTHER
WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE SRN CWA ON MONDAY AND ARE SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
LIFTING N INTO THE S CWA. WILL ALSO HAVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER WITHOUT A DEFINED BDRY/FOCUS...IT IS
HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LOCATED. DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CRP AREA ON SAT...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN THAT IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS...WILL NOT GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A
SLIGHT CHC MON EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS...WENT CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE STILL LINGERS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST
AREAS TUESDAY (NORTHEAST CWA REMAINS DRY)...AND THEN LIMITING POPS
TO JUST THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SURFACE/LOW LVL LOW WILL BE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WITH AN UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DURING
THE PERIOD THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE GULF.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. GFS CONTINUES SHOWING BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF HAS BEGUN CUTTING OF A LOW AND SENDING IT
DOWN THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND THEN
SPINNING THE LOW OFF IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GFS
RATHER TAKES THIS SAME TROUGH/LOW WHILE IT IS STILL OVER THE CENTRAL
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND ABSORBS IT INTO THE DEEP NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME KEPT WITH LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BETTER HANDLE THIS SETUP.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL DROP SOME DURING THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 200324 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1024 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
FOLLOW TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS
ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/DEVELOP WEST OF STATE ROAD
16 UNTIL AROUND 03Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A TRANSITION FROM VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT TO A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTED. AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN SECTIONS 12-15Z
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN HOURS MONDAY. GENERALLY LGT
E/NE SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LGT EAST FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED IN MEX WITH A FEW WEAK ECHOES OCCASIONALLY MOVG
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO WESTERN WEBB CO. IN ADDITION...RADAR IS
SHOWING WEAK ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK
SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THE CONVECTION IN MEX...IS SLOWLY MOVG NE AND
IS PROGD TO CONTINUE TRACKING NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THEREFORE COULD STILL SEE SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
AND WEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING A LULL BY LATE EVENING THEN ISOLD SHRA`S
REDVLP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL BEND TOWARD
MON MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RAIN CHCS FOR MON AS GUIDANCE
GREATLY VARIES. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE PROGS AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR
CRP WHILE THE GFS IS PROGING 35 PERCENT. DECIDED TO GO WITH A 40
POP FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND ON MON AND KEPT THE 30`S FARTHER
WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE SRN CWA ON MONDAY AND ARE SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
LIFTING N INTO THE S CWA. WILL ALSO HAVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER WITHOUT A DEFINED BDRY/FOCUS...IT IS
HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LOCATED. DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CRP AREA ON SAT...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN THAT IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS...WILL NOT GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A
SLIGHT CHC MON EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS...WENT CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE STILL LINGERS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST
AREAS TUESDAY (NORTHEAST CWA REMAINS DRY)...AND THEN LIMITING POPS
TO JUST THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SURFACE/LOW LVL LOW WILL BE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WITH AN UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DURING
THE PERIOD THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE GULF.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. GFS CONTINUES SHOWING BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF HAS BEGUN CUTTING OF A LOW AND SENDING IT
DOWN THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND THEN
SPINNING THE LOW OFF IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GFS
RATHER TAKES THIS SAME TROUGH/LOW WHILE IT IS STILL OVER THE CENTRAL
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND ABSORBS IT INTO THE DEEP NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME KEPT WITH LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BETTER HANDLE THIS SETUP.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL DROP SOME DURING THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 200324 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1024 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
FOLLOW TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS
ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/DEVELOP WEST OF STATE ROAD
16 UNTIL AROUND 03Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A TRANSITION FROM VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT TO A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTED. AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN SECTIONS 12-15Z
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN HOURS MONDAY. GENERALLY LGT
E/NE SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LGT EAST FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED IN MEX WITH A FEW WEAK ECHOES OCCASIONALLY MOVG
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO WESTERN WEBB CO. IN ADDITION...RADAR IS
SHOWING WEAK ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK
SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THE CONVECTION IN MEX...IS SLOWLY MOVG NE AND
IS PROGD TO CONTINUE TRACKING NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THEREFORE COULD STILL SEE SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
AND WEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING A LULL BY LATE EVENING THEN ISOLD SHRA`S
REDVLP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL BEND TOWARD
MON MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RAIN CHCS FOR MON AS GUIDANCE
GREATLY VARIES. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE PROGS AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR
CRP WHILE THE GFS IS PROGING 35 PERCENT. DECIDED TO GO WITH A 40
POP FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND ON MON AND KEPT THE 30`S FARTHER
WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE SRN CWA ON MONDAY AND ARE SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
LIFTING N INTO THE S CWA. WILL ALSO HAVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER WITHOUT A DEFINED BDRY/FOCUS...IT IS
HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LOCATED. DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CRP AREA ON SAT...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN THAT IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS...WILL NOT GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A
SLIGHT CHC MON EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS...WENT CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE STILL LINGERS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST
AREAS TUESDAY (NORTHEAST CWA REMAINS DRY)...AND THEN LIMITING POPS
TO JUST THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SURFACE/LOW LVL LOW WILL BE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WITH AN UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DURING
THE PERIOD THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE GULF.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. GFS CONTINUES SHOWING BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF HAS BEGUN CUTTING OF A LOW AND SENDING IT
DOWN THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND THEN
SPINNING THE LOW OFF IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GFS
RATHER TAKES THIS SAME TROUGH/LOW WHILE IT IS STILL OVER THE CENTRAL
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND ABSORBS IT INTO THE DEEP NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME KEPT WITH LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BETTER HANDLE THIS SETUP.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL DROP SOME DURING THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 200324 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1024 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
FOLLOW TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS
ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/DEVELOP WEST OF STATE ROAD
16 UNTIL AROUND 03Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A TRANSITION FROM VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT TO A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTED. AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN SECTIONS 12-15Z
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN HOURS MONDAY. GENERALLY LGT
E/NE SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LGT EAST FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED IN MEX WITH A FEW WEAK ECHOES OCCASIONALLY MOVG
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO WESTERN WEBB CO. IN ADDITION...RADAR IS
SHOWING WEAK ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK
SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THE CONVECTION IN MEX...IS SLOWLY MOVG NE AND
IS PROGD TO CONTINUE TRACKING NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THEREFORE COULD STILL SEE SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
AND WEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING A LULL BY LATE EVENING THEN ISOLD SHRA`S
REDVLP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL BEND TOWARD
MON MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RAIN CHCS FOR MON AS GUIDANCE
GREATLY VARIES. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE PROGS AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR
CRP WHILE THE GFS IS PROGING 35 PERCENT. DECIDED TO GO WITH A 40
POP FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND ON MON AND KEPT THE 30`S FARTHER
WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE SRN CWA ON MONDAY AND ARE SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
LIFTING N INTO THE S CWA. WILL ALSO HAVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER WITHOUT A DEFINED BDRY/FOCUS...IT IS
HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LOCATED. DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CRP AREA ON SAT...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN THAT IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS...WILL NOT GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A
SLIGHT CHC MON EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS...WENT CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE STILL LINGERS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST
AREAS TUESDAY (NORTHEAST CWA REMAINS DRY)...AND THEN LIMITING POPS
TO JUST THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SURFACE/LOW LVL LOW WILL BE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WITH AN UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DURING
THE PERIOD THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE GULF.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. GFS CONTINUES SHOWING BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF HAS BEGUN CUTTING OF A LOW AND SENDING IT
DOWN THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND THEN
SPINNING THE LOW OFF IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GFS
RATHER TAKES THIS SAME TROUGH/LOW WHILE IT IS STILL OVER THE CENTRAL
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND ABSORBS IT INTO THE DEEP NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME KEPT WITH LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BETTER HANDLE THIS SETUP.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL DROP SOME DURING THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KFWD 200255 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
955 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUIET NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO OUR EAST. ADJUSTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SEVERAL PLACES BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
THE UPDATE.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MORE CLEAR THAN CLOUDY.
CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT INDUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING CONTINUED
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE OZARKS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRONGER UPPER LOW WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT VERY SLOWLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NORTHWEST MEXICO UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST...WEAKEN AND LINGER
OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/NORTHERN
MEXICO AREA AS IT GETS CUT OFF FROM STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
NORTH. A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS THE EARLY HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY AS WELL...BUT REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 55 AND
65 DEGREES EACH MORNING WITH URBAN AREAS SEEING THE WARMEST VALUES.

WE START TO SEE CHANGES ALOFT IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ABSORB THE FAR WEST
TEXAS/MEXICO DISTURBANCE. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER IS WHERE THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HOW FAR EAST IT PROGRESSES. THE
EURO AND CMC MODELS ARE MUCH DEEPER WITH THE ENERGY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AND LEAST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS AND
EURO ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE CMC HANGS THE ENERGY AND THE
BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT NORTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF
AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL BE THE KEY. THE EURO GIVES US THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN...WHILE THE CMC AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY DRY. OBVIOUSLY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HOW IT AFFECTS TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN WITH PERSISTENCE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. I HELD THESE LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST FORCING MAY POSSIBLY BE
AND WILL AWAIT FOR MODELS TO BETTER RESOLVE THE ENERGY AND
LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
WILL BE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CAA BY FRIDAY BY THE CMC AND EURO
WOULD MEAN AN OVERALL COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE IN QUICKER WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FELT A MEAN BETWEEN
THE TWO SCENARIOS WILL BE THE WAY TO GO UNTIL MODELS COME TO A
CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH EAST
OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND FOR A DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  83  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              61  82  58  83  60 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             49  77  59  81  57 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            56  82  60  82  59 /   5  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  80  59  82  58 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            59  82  63  83  62 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  59  83  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            62  81  59  82  59 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  83  59  83  57 /   5  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/82






000
FXUS64 KFWD 200255 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
955 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUIET NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO OUR EAST. ADJUSTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SEVERAL PLACES BASED ON HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
THE UPDATE.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
SOME CLOUDS NEAR 050 WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WILL SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MORE CLEAR THAN CLOUDY.
CONVECTION AND ANY MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT INDUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER