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000
FXUS64 KHGX 050104
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
804 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR.
AS CLOUDS ALSO DIMINISH EXPECT SKC TO SCT040 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
FROM HERE ON OUT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT FOG
MENTION AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...LBX AND CXO. TOMORROW THINK WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE SHOWER DEVLOPMENT FIRST AT THE COAST IN THE
MORNING...THEN FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ABOUT
COVERAGE THOUGH AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOMEWHAT LESS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER AS POINTED OUT BY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PRECITABLE WATERS
QUITE HIGH ESPECIALLY IN NAM12. WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH MOST
SPOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH POSSIBLY MORE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER SE TX.
PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER EXTENSIVE. THE
NAM12 INITIALIZED BEST AND VERIFIED THE BEST TODAY WITH IT`S
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM12 IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
ON SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-800 MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB.
MOISTURE LEVELS AGAIN LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR 30/40 PERCENT COVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO SE TX SAT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE GETS HERE AND IS DISPLACED TO THE W-NW
OF SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. PW VALUES ON SUNDAY DROP A BIT BUT ARE
STILL BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE HIGHER SO IN
THEORY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
FOR NOW. IF GOING TO THE BEACH OVER THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS COUPLED WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 102 AND 106 DEGREES. ITS NOT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL
PLENTY OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON LABOR DAY. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER NORTH TEXAS BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SE TX WILL BECOME NE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO APPROACH SE TX IN THE AFTN. PW
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 2.00 INCHES IN THE AFTN WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THE
DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. JET DYNAMICS NOT THE
BEST ON MONDAY AS SE TX LOOKS LIKE IT`LL LIE IN THE SUBSIDENT
REGION OF THE JET.

PW VALUES LOWER TUES/WED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
RAINY WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS A S/WV MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. THE GFS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND
LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ITS TROUGH IS NOT AS SHARPLY DEFINED.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 43

MARINE...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN AS EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXPANDS WESTWARD AND
INFLUENCES LOCAL MARITIME CONDITIONS. SCATTERED EARLY DAY
SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WITHIN HEAVY RAIN...A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM
THROUGH LABOR DAY. AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE OVER NEAR 2
FOOT SEAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF LOUISIANA LABOR DAY MAY
INCREASE EARLY WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  95  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...46



000
FXUS64 KHGX 050104
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
804 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR.
AS CLOUDS ALSO DIMINISH EXPECT SKC TO SCT040 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
FROM HERE ON OUT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT FOG
MENTION AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...LBX AND CXO. TOMORROW THINK WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE SHOWER DEVLOPMENT FIRST AT THE COAST IN THE
MORNING...THEN FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ABOUT
COVERAGE THOUGH AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOMEWHAT LESS INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER AS POINTED OUT BY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PRECITABLE WATERS
QUITE HIGH ESPECIALLY IN NAM12. WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH MOST
SPOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH POSSIBLY MORE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER SE TX.
PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER EXTENSIVE. THE
NAM12 INITIALIZED BEST AND VERIFIED THE BEST TODAY WITH IT`S
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM12 IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
ON SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-800 MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB.
MOISTURE LEVELS AGAIN LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR 30/40 PERCENT COVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO SE TX SAT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE GETS HERE AND IS DISPLACED TO THE W-NW
OF SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. PW VALUES ON SUNDAY DROP A BIT BUT ARE
STILL BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE HIGHER SO IN
THEORY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
FOR NOW. IF GOING TO THE BEACH OVER THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS COUPLED WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 102 AND 106 DEGREES. ITS NOT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL
PLENTY OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON LABOR DAY. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER NORTH TEXAS BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SE TX WILL BECOME NE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO APPROACH SE TX IN THE AFTN. PW
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 2.00 INCHES IN THE AFTN WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THE
DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. JET DYNAMICS NOT THE
BEST ON MONDAY AS SE TX LOOKS LIKE IT`LL LIE IN THE SUBSIDENT
REGION OF THE JET.

PW VALUES LOWER TUES/WED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
RAINY WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS A S/WV MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. THE GFS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND
LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ITS TROUGH IS NOT AS SHARPLY DEFINED.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 43

MARINE...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN AS EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXPANDS WESTWARD AND
INFLUENCES LOCAL MARITIME CONDITIONS. SCATTERED EARLY DAY
SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WITHIN HEAVY RAIN...A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM
THROUGH LABOR DAY. AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE OVER NEAR 2
FOOT SEAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF LOUISIANA LABOR DAY MAY
INCREASE EARLY WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  95  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...46



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KCRP 050032
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
732 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION NEARLY DISSIPATED. AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS EVENING BUT COULD SEE REDVLPMNT TOWARD SAT MORNING ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE WATERS. THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW
A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS OF 2.2 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS PROG THE
MOISTURE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SCT ACROSS THE VCT AREA...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT MORNING. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD
SAT MORNING...DUE TO A MIX OF CIGS AND VSBY`S. ALI MAY EXPERIENCE
VSBY`S DOWN TO IFR LEVELS BRIEFLY SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REDVLP BY MID MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF
CONVECTION SAT WITH VCT HAVING THE BEST CHC OF STORMS.
THEREFORE...HAVE A VCSH MENTIONED IN THE TAF FOR VCT...ALTHOUGH
THE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR CRP...ALI AND LRD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONSENSUS THAT SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD HAVE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...AND NO MENTION OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH
MOISURE OVER THE NORTHEAST TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
SCATTERED...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SOME CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAY MOVE INTO
COASTAL AREAS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WARM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH MEANS A BIT WARMER
EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES STABILIZE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ABOUT
THE SAME TEMPERATURES (MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER) AS OBSERVED TONIGHT.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BIT LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE BECOMES MORE LIMITED SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS THEN...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE
SHOWER COULD POP UP LATE. AT THIS TIME...PREFER TO HOLD OFF. WEAK
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WITH LESS MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST AS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF RETROGRADES
BACK WEST...WITH THE COASTAL BEND FALLING UNDER THE SHEAR AXIS.
HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS(PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0) OVER THE MARINE/COASTAL
BEND/VCT CROSSROADS AS WELL.  EXPECT TO SEE DIURNAL PATTERN OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 100-102 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  94  78  94  77  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  93  76  96  75  /  10  30  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 102  79 102  78  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             75  98  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  91  80  /  20  30  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 102  77 101  76  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  76  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  91  80  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 050032
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
732 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION NEARLY DISSIPATED. AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS EVENING BUT COULD SEE REDVLPMNT TOWARD SAT MORNING ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE WATERS. THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW
A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS OF 2.2 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS PROG THE
MOISTURE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SCT ACROSS THE VCT AREA...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT MORNING. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD
SAT MORNING...DUE TO A MIX OF CIGS AND VSBY`S. ALI MAY EXPERIENCE
VSBY`S DOWN TO IFR LEVELS BRIEFLY SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REDVLP BY MID MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF
CONVECTION SAT WITH VCT HAVING THE BEST CHC OF STORMS.
THEREFORE...HAVE A VCSH MENTIONED IN THE TAF FOR VCT...ALTHOUGH
THE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR CRP...ALI AND LRD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONSENSUS THAT SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD HAVE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...AND NO MENTION OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH
MOISURE OVER THE NORTHEAST TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
SCATTERED...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SOME CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAY MOVE INTO
COASTAL AREAS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WARM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH MEANS A BIT WARMER
EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES STABILIZE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ABOUT
THE SAME TEMPERATURES (MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER) AS OBSERVED TONIGHT.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BIT LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE BECOMES MORE LIMITED SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS THEN...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE
SHOWER COULD POP UP LATE. AT THIS TIME...PREFER TO HOLD OFF. WEAK
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WITH LESS MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST AS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF RETROGRADES
BACK WEST...WITH THE COASTAL BEND FALLING UNDER THE SHEAR AXIS.
HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS(PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0) OVER THE MARINE/COASTAL
BEND/VCT CROSSROADS AS WELL.  EXPECT TO SEE DIURNAL PATTERN OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 100-102 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  94  78  94  77  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  93  76  96  75  /  10  30  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 102  79 102  78  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             75  98  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  91  80  /  20  30  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 102  77 101  76  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  76  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  91  80  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 050032
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
732 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION NEARLY DISSIPATED. AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS EVENING BUT COULD SEE REDVLPMNT TOWARD SAT MORNING ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE WATERS. THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW
A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS OF 2.2 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS PROG THE
MOISTURE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SCT ACROSS THE VCT AREA...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT MORNING. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD
SAT MORNING...DUE TO A MIX OF CIGS AND VSBY`S. ALI MAY EXPERIENCE
VSBY`S DOWN TO IFR LEVELS BRIEFLY SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REDVLP BY MID MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF
CONVECTION SAT WITH VCT HAVING THE BEST CHC OF STORMS.
THEREFORE...HAVE A VCSH MENTIONED IN THE TAF FOR VCT...ALTHOUGH
THE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR CRP...ALI AND LRD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONSENSUS THAT SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD HAVE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...AND NO MENTION OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH
MOISURE OVER THE NORTHEAST TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
SCATTERED...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SOME CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAY MOVE INTO
COASTAL AREAS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WARM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH MEANS A BIT WARMER
EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES STABILIZE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ABOUT
THE SAME TEMPERATURES (MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER) AS OBSERVED TONIGHT.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BIT LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE BECOMES MORE LIMITED SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS THEN...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE
SHOWER COULD POP UP LATE. AT THIS TIME...PREFER TO HOLD OFF. WEAK
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WITH LESS MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST AS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF RETROGRADES
BACK WEST...WITH THE COASTAL BEND FALLING UNDER THE SHEAR AXIS.
HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS(PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0) OVER THE MARINE/COASTAL
BEND/VCT CROSSROADS AS WELL.  EXPECT TO SEE DIURNAL PATTERN OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 100-102 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  94  78  94  77  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  93  76  96  75  /  10  30  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 102  79 102  78  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             75  98  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  91  80  /  20  30  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 102  77 101  76  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  76  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  91  80  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 050032
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
732 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR SHOWED CONVECTION NEARLY DISSIPATED. AM
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS EVENING BUT COULD SEE REDVLPMNT TOWARD SAT MORNING ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE WATERS. THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW
A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS OF 2.2 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS PROG THE
MOISTURE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY SCT ACROSS THE VCT AREA...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SAT MORNING. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD
SAT MORNING...DUE TO A MIX OF CIGS AND VSBY`S. ALI MAY EXPERIENCE
VSBY`S DOWN TO IFR LEVELS BRIEFLY SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REDVLP BY MID MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF
CONVECTION SAT WITH VCT HAVING THE BEST CHC OF STORMS.
THEREFORE...HAVE A VCSH MENTIONED IN THE TAF FOR VCT...ALTHOUGH
THE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR CRP...ALI AND LRD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONSENSUS THAT SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD HAVE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...AND NO MENTION OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH
MOISURE OVER THE NORTHEAST TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
SCATTERED...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SOME CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAY MOVE INTO
COASTAL AREAS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WARM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH MEANS A BIT WARMER
EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES STABILIZE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ABOUT
THE SAME TEMPERATURES (MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER) AS OBSERVED TONIGHT.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BIT LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE BECOMES MORE LIMITED SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS THEN...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE
SHOWER COULD POP UP LATE. AT THIS TIME...PREFER TO HOLD OFF. WEAK
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WITH LESS MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST AS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF RETROGRADES
BACK WEST...WITH THE COASTAL BEND FALLING UNDER THE SHEAR AXIS.
HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS(PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0) OVER THE MARINE/COASTAL
BEND/VCT CROSSROADS AS WELL.  EXPECT TO SEE DIURNAL PATTERN OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 100-102 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  94  78  94  77  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  93  76  96  75  /  10  30  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 102  79 102  78  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             75  98  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  91  80  /  20  30  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 102  77 101  76  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  76  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  91  80  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 042347 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
647 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

As the cumulus field this evening dissipates, expect mostly clear
skies through most of tonight. Similar to what occurred early
this morning, some low cloud development is expected early
Saturday morning, mainly across the southern third of our area.
Carrying MVFR ceilings mainly between 12Z and 15Z at KJCT and
KSOA, with a Tempo group at KBBD and a scattered mention at KSJT.
Models indicate a little more low-level moisture presence on
Saturday, compared to today. Anticipate a cumulus field developing
by or shortly before Noon. Southeast winds this evening will
decrease and veer to the south overnight. Mainly south winds near
10 knots are expected on Saturday.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Continued hot and dry in the short term across West Central Texas.
Cumulus field this afternoon across the area is showing a little
more development than in recent days, although not enough so far to
break through and develop into any showers or storms quite yet. Not
impossible for that to happen over the next few hours and will leave
the mention of isolated storms for the remainder of the afternoon,
but anything that might develop should dissipate well before sunset.
Will not carry a mention of storms into tonight.

Guidance looked a little too warm on tonight slows, and given the
temperatures we are seeing as of 20Z across the area, a little too
cool for highs on Saturday.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged this cycle.
Models hold the upper ridge firmly in place over Texas through
this holiday weekend, and they still develop a broad upper trough
across the northern CONUS. Afternoon highs mainly in the 95 to
around 100 range still look likely for the for Sunday, Monday, and
Tuesday periods. Then, the upper ridge axis shifts west, as an
upper trough develops across the eastern CONUS. With the flow
aloft becoming more northwesterly by mid week, continuing rain
chances for mid to late next week look reasonable. What`s more, a
medium range model blend now indicates a weak front will most
likely move into West Central Texas, sometime during the Thursday
and Thursday night time frame, and stall. So, the best rain
chances look good for Thursday and again on Friday. With increased
cloud cover and cooler temperatures at 850mb, afternoon highs
closer to seasonal normals look best for mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  96  76  97 /   0   5   5   0
San Angelo  72  97  75  98 /   5   5   0   0
Junction  72  94  73  96 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 042347 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
647 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

As the cumulus field this evening dissipates, expect mostly clear
skies through most of tonight. Similar to what occurred early
this morning, some low cloud development is expected early
Saturday morning, mainly across the southern third of our area.
Carrying MVFR ceilings mainly between 12Z and 15Z at KJCT and
KSOA, with a Tempo group at KBBD and a scattered mention at KSJT.
Models indicate a little more low-level moisture presence on
Saturday, compared to today. Anticipate a cumulus field developing
by or shortly before Noon. Southeast winds this evening will
decrease and veer to the south overnight. Mainly south winds near
10 knots are expected on Saturday.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Continued hot and dry in the short term across West Central Texas.
Cumulus field this afternoon across the area is showing a little
more development than in recent days, although not enough so far to
break through and develop into any showers or storms quite yet. Not
impossible for that to happen over the next few hours and will leave
the mention of isolated storms for the remainder of the afternoon,
but anything that might develop should dissipate well before sunset.
Will not carry a mention of storms into tonight.

Guidance looked a little too warm on tonight slows, and given the
temperatures we are seeing as of 20Z across the area, a little too
cool for highs on Saturday.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged this cycle.
Models hold the upper ridge firmly in place over Texas through
this holiday weekend, and they still develop a broad upper trough
across the northern CONUS. Afternoon highs mainly in the 95 to
around 100 range still look likely for the for Sunday, Monday, and
Tuesday periods. Then, the upper ridge axis shifts west, as an
upper trough develops across the eastern CONUS. With the flow
aloft becoming more northwesterly by mid week, continuing rain
chances for mid to late next week look reasonable. What`s more, a
medium range model blend now indicates a weak front will most
likely move into West Central Texas, sometime during the Thursday
and Thursday night time frame, and stall. So, the best rain
chances look good for Thursday and again on Friday. With increased
cloud cover and cooler temperatures at 850mb, afternoon highs
closer to seasonal normals look best for mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  96  76  97 /   0   5   5   0
San Angelo  72  97  75  98 /   5   5   0   0
Junction  72  94  73  96 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 042347 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
647 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

As the cumulus field this evening dissipates, expect mostly clear
skies through most of tonight. Similar to what occurred early
this morning, some low cloud development is expected early
Saturday morning, mainly across the southern third of our area.
Carrying MVFR ceilings mainly between 12Z and 15Z at KJCT and
KSOA, with a Tempo group at KBBD and a scattered mention at KSJT.
Models indicate a little more low-level moisture presence on
Saturday, compared to today. Anticipate a cumulus field developing
by or shortly before Noon. Southeast winds this evening will
decrease and veer to the south overnight. Mainly south winds near
10 knots are expected on Saturday.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Continued hot and dry in the short term across West Central Texas.
Cumulus field this afternoon across the area is showing a little
more development than in recent days, although not enough so far to
break through and develop into any showers or storms quite yet. Not
impossible for that to happen over the next few hours and will leave
the mention of isolated storms for the remainder of the afternoon,
but anything that might develop should dissipate well before sunset.
Will not carry a mention of storms into tonight.

Guidance looked a little too warm on tonight slows, and given the
temperatures we are seeing as of 20Z across the area, a little too
cool for highs on Saturday.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged this cycle.
Models hold the upper ridge firmly in place over Texas through
this holiday weekend, and they still develop a broad upper trough
across the northern CONUS. Afternoon highs mainly in the 95 to
around 100 range still look likely for the for Sunday, Monday, and
Tuesday periods. Then, the upper ridge axis shifts west, as an
upper trough develops across the eastern CONUS. With the flow
aloft becoming more northwesterly by mid week, continuing rain
chances for mid to late next week look reasonable. What`s more, a
medium range model blend now indicates a weak front will most
likely move into West Central Texas, sometime during the Thursday
and Thursday night time frame, and stall. So, the best rain
chances look good for Thursday and again on Friday. With increased
cloud cover and cooler temperatures at 850mb, afternoon highs
closer to seasonal normals look best for mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  96  76  97 /   0   5   5   0
San Angelo  72  97  75  98 /   5   5   0   0
Junction  72  94  73  96 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 042347 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
647 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

As the cumulus field this evening dissipates, expect mostly clear
skies through most of tonight. Similar to what occurred early
this morning, some low cloud development is expected early
Saturday morning, mainly across the southern third of our area.
Carrying MVFR ceilings mainly between 12Z and 15Z at KJCT and
KSOA, with a Tempo group at KBBD and a scattered mention at KSJT.
Models indicate a little more low-level moisture presence on
Saturday, compared to today. Anticipate a cumulus field developing
by or shortly before Noon. Southeast winds this evening will
decrease and veer to the south overnight. Mainly south winds near
10 knots are expected on Saturday.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Continued hot and dry in the short term across West Central Texas.
Cumulus field this afternoon across the area is showing a little
more development than in recent days, although not enough so far to
break through and develop into any showers or storms quite yet. Not
impossible for that to happen over the next few hours and will leave
the mention of isolated storms for the remainder of the afternoon,
but anything that might develop should dissipate well before sunset.
Will not carry a mention of storms into tonight.

Guidance looked a little too warm on tonight slows, and given the
temperatures we are seeing as of 20Z across the area, a little too
cool for highs on Saturday.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged this cycle.
Models hold the upper ridge firmly in place over Texas through
this holiday weekend, and they still develop a broad upper trough
across the northern CONUS. Afternoon highs mainly in the 95 to
around 100 range still look likely for the for Sunday, Monday, and
Tuesday periods. Then, the upper ridge axis shifts west, as an
upper trough develops across the eastern CONUS. With the flow
aloft becoming more northwesterly by mid week, continuing rain
chances for mid to late next week look reasonable. What`s more, a
medium range model blend now indicates a weak front will most
likely move into West Central Texas, sometime during the Thursday
and Thursday night time frame, and stall. So, the best rain
chances look good for Thursday and again on Friday. With increased
cloud cover and cooler temperatures at 850mb, afternoon highs
closer to seasonal normals look best for mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  96  76  97 /   0   5   5   0
San Angelo  72  97  75  98 /   5   5   0   0
Junction  72  94  73  96 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLUB 042340
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER RECENTLY
WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OUT NEARBY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST
OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER OVER
THE COMING DAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS ON
SATURDAY PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S /WITH A FEW UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE OUT EAST/. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE STRONG HEATING
COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CAN GENERATE ANY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN IF ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG WITH A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER /AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 40 DEGREES/ WILL ACT
TO LIMIT COVERAGE...DURATION AND AMOUNTS. GIVEN THIS...CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE CURRENT 10 PERCENT POPS LIKELY EVEN A BIT
ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE.

LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FCST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IN THE NRN JET STREAM MOVE ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND NRN TIER OF THE CONUS FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIR MASS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL
PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY WHEN UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES WITH A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO HAVE
MADE SUBTLE CHANGES TO TREND OF DRIER AND WARMER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AND TEMPS DECREASE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE IN OR NEAR THE FCST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  63  93 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  92  65  93 /   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  91  66  93 /   0  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     61  92  64  93 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  93  66  94 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   60  91  65  92 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    61  92  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0
SPUR          62  94  67  96 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/




000
FXUS64 KLUB 042340
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER RECENTLY
WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OUT NEARBY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST
OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER OVER
THE COMING DAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS ON
SATURDAY PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S /WITH A FEW UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE OUT EAST/. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE STRONG HEATING
COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CAN GENERATE ANY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN IF ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG WITH A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER /AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 40 DEGREES/ WILL ACT
TO LIMIT COVERAGE...DURATION AND AMOUNTS. GIVEN THIS...CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE CURRENT 10 PERCENT POPS LIKELY EVEN A BIT
ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE.

LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FCST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IN THE NRN JET STREAM MOVE ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND NRN TIER OF THE CONUS FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIR MASS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL
PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY WHEN UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES WITH A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO HAVE
MADE SUBTLE CHANGES TO TREND OF DRIER AND WARMER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AND TEMPS DECREASE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE IN OR NEAR THE FCST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  63  93 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  92  65  93 /   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  91  66  93 /   0  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     61  92  64  93 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  93  66  94 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   60  91  65  92 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    61  92  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0
SPUR          62  94  67  96 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/



000
FXUS64 KLUB 042340
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER RECENTLY
WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OUT NEARBY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST
OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER OVER
THE COMING DAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS ON
SATURDAY PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S /WITH A FEW UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE OUT EAST/. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE STRONG HEATING
COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CAN GENERATE ANY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN IF ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG WITH A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER /AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 40 DEGREES/ WILL ACT
TO LIMIT COVERAGE...DURATION AND AMOUNTS. GIVEN THIS...CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE CURRENT 10 PERCENT POPS LIKELY EVEN A BIT
ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE.

LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FCST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IN THE NRN JET STREAM MOVE ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND NRN TIER OF THE CONUS FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIR MASS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL
PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY WHEN UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES WITH A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO HAVE
MADE SUBTLE CHANGES TO TREND OF DRIER AND WARMER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AND TEMPS DECREASE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE IN OR NEAR THE FCST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  63  93 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  92  65  93 /   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  91  66  93 /   0  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     61  92  64  93 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  93  66  94 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   60  91  65  92 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    61  92  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0
SPUR          62  94  67  96 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/




000
FXUS64 KLUB 042340
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER RECENTLY
WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OUT NEARBY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST
OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER OVER
THE COMING DAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS ON
SATURDAY PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S /WITH A FEW UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE OUT EAST/. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE STRONG HEATING
COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CAN GENERATE ANY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN IF ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG WITH A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER /AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 40 DEGREES/ WILL ACT
TO LIMIT COVERAGE...DURATION AND AMOUNTS. GIVEN THIS...CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE CURRENT 10 PERCENT POPS LIKELY EVEN A BIT
ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE.

LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FCST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IN THE NRN JET STREAM MOVE ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND NRN TIER OF THE CONUS FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIR MASS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL
PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY WHEN UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES WITH A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO HAVE
MADE SUBTLE CHANGES TO TREND OF DRIER AND WARMER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AND TEMPS DECREASE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE IN OR NEAR THE FCST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  63  93 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  92  65  93 /   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  91  66  93 /   0  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     61  92  64  93 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  93  66  94 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   60  91  65  92 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    61  92  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0
SPUR          62  94  67  96 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBRO 042340 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS IN EFFECT RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CLOUDS AT
THE 2500 FT LEVEL WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. TOMORROW...BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
SQUASH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE BECOME BREEZY AND CEILING DECKS RISE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTERED OVER TEXAS REGION WITH
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE
AREA REMAIN HIGH WITH 2.12 INCHES FOR THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING
OBSERVATION THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS VALUES TO LOWER SLIGHTLY
WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE
THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OVER TEXAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLOWLY
RETREATS WEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS SLOW
RETROGRADE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ALSO BEGINS A
SLOW TRACK WEST EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST GULF
BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

CONCENTRATING ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM, GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
TIGHT CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME SPREAD DEVELOPING IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN THROUGH DAY 7 /NEXT FRIDAY/ IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THE
04/12Z GFS AND 04/002Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS MAKING THIS
A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENT FORECAST.  AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS
SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER LEAVING ONLY DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY
WEAK SEABREEZE TO SET OFF CONVECTION IF ANY AT ALL. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS REDUCED WITH MEAN RH AROUND 50 PERCENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
BUMPS THEM UP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT WED-FRI AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NC GULF BEGINS TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. INHERITED FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND BUT KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF CWA DRY. WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69C WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HUGGING THE
69E CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW LITTLE VARIATION WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTED TO TUMBLE/REMAINING
WITHIN SEASONAL TOLERANCES/ WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE. OVERALL, FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR
UPDATES.

MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING SOUTHEAST PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND PICK UP WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CHANCES OF
RAIN BECOME LIMITED INTO SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS SAT NIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 3 FEET
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT SEA. DO
NOT SEE ANY SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT BAY THROUGH
MONDAY THEN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE ADVANCING IN FROM THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV



000
FXUS64 KBRO 042340 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS IN EFFECT RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CLOUDS AT
THE 2500 FT LEVEL WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. TOMORROW...BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
SQUASH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE BECOME BREEZY AND CEILING DECKS RISE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTERED OVER TEXAS REGION WITH
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE
AREA REMAIN HIGH WITH 2.12 INCHES FOR THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING
OBSERVATION THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS VALUES TO LOWER SLIGHTLY
WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE
THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OVER TEXAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLOWLY
RETREATS WEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS SLOW
RETROGRADE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ALSO BEGINS A
SLOW TRACK WEST EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST GULF
BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

CONCENTRATING ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM, GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
TIGHT CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME SPREAD DEVELOPING IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN THROUGH DAY 7 /NEXT FRIDAY/ IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THE
04/12Z GFS AND 04/002Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS MAKING THIS
A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENT FORECAST.  AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS
SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER LEAVING ONLY DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY
WEAK SEABREEZE TO SET OFF CONVECTION IF ANY AT ALL. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS REDUCED WITH MEAN RH AROUND 50 PERCENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
BUMPS THEM UP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT WED-FRI AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NC GULF BEGINS TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. INHERITED FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND BUT KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF CWA DRY. WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69C WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HUGGING THE
69E CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW LITTLE VARIATION WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTED TO TUMBLE/REMAINING
WITHIN SEASONAL TOLERANCES/ WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE. OVERALL, FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR
UPDATES.

MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING SOUTHEAST PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND PICK UP WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CHANCES OF
RAIN BECOME LIMITED INTO SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS SAT NIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 3 FEET
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT SEA. DO
NOT SEE ANY SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT BAY THROUGH
MONDAY THEN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE ADVANCING IN FROM THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV



000
FXUS64 KBRO 042340 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS IN EFFECT RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CLOUDS AT
THE 2500 FT LEVEL WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. TOMORROW...BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
SQUASH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE BECOME BREEZY AND CEILING DECKS RISE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTERED OVER TEXAS REGION WITH
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE
AREA REMAIN HIGH WITH 2.12 INCHES FOR THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING
OBSERVATION THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS VALUES TO LOWER SLIGHTLY
WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE
THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OVER TEXAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLOWLY
RETREATS WEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS SLOW
RETROGRADE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ALSO BEGINS A
SLOW TRACK WEST EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST GULF
BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

CONCENTRATING ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM, GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
TIGHT CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME SPREAD DEVELOPING IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN THROUGH DAY 7 /NEXT FRIDAY/ IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THE
04/12Z GFS AND 04/002Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS MAKING THIS
A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENT FORECAST.  AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS
SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER LEAVING ONLY DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY
WEAK SEABREEZE TO SET OFF CONVECTION IF ANY AT ALL. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS REDUCED WITH MEAN RH AROUND 50 PERCENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
BUMPS THEM UP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT WED-FRI AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NC GULF BEGINS TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. INHERITED FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND BUT KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF CWA DRY. WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69C WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HUGGING THE
69E CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW LITTLE VARIATION WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTED TO TUMBLE/REMAINING
WITHIN SEASONAL TOLERANCES/ WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE. OVERALL, FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR
UPDATES.

MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING SOUTHEAST PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND PICK UP WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CHANCES OF
RAIN BECOME LIMITED INTO SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS SAT NIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 3 FEET
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT SEA. DO
NOT SEE ANY SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT BAY THROUGH
MONDAY THEN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE ADVANCING IN FROM THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KBRO 042340 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS IN EFFECT RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW CLOUDS AT
THE 2500 FT LEVEL WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. TOMORROW...BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
SQUASH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE WINDS AT
THE SURFACE BECOME BREEZY AND CEILING DECKS RISE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTERED OVER TEXAS REGION WITH
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE
AREA REMAIN HIGH WITH 2.12 INCHES FOR THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING
OBSERVATION THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS VALUES TO LOWER SLIGHTLY
WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE
THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OVER TEXAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLOWLY
RETREATS WEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS SLOW
RETROGRADE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ALSO BEGINS A
SLOW TRACK WEST EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST GULF
BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

CONCENTRATING ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM, GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
TIGHT CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME SPREAD DEVELOPING IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN THROUGH DAY 7 /NEXT FRIDAY/ IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THE
04/12Z GFS AND 04/002Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS MAKING THIS
A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENT FORECAST.  AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS
SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER LEAVING ONLY DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY
WEAK SEABREEZE TO SET OFF CONVECTION IF ANY AT ALL. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS REDUCED WITH MEAN RH AROUND 50 PERCENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
BUMPS THEM UP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT WED-FRI AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NC GULF BEGINS TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. INHERITED FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND BUT KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF CWA DRY. WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69C WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HUGGING THE
69E CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW LITTLE VARIATION WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTED TO TUMBLE/REMAINING
WITHIN SEASONAL TOLERANCES/ WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE. OVERALL, FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR
UPDATES.

MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING SOUTHEAST PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND PICK UP WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CHANCES OF
RAIN BECOME LIMITED INTO SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS SAT NIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 3 FEET
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT SEA. DO
NOT SEE ANY SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT BAY THROUGH
MONDAY THEN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE ADVANCING IN FROM THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KCRP 042336
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
636 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD
SAT MORNING...DUE TO A MIX OF CIGS AND VSBY`S. ALI MAY EXPERIENCE
VSBY`S DOWN TO IFR LEVELS BRIEFLY SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REDVLP BY MID MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF
CONVECTION SAT WITH VCT HAVING THE BEST CHC OF STORMS.
THEREFORE...HAVE A VCSH MENTIONED IN THE TAF FOR VCT...ALTHOUGH
THE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR CRP...ALI AND LRD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONSENSUS THAT SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD HAVE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...AND NO MENTION OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH
MOISURE OVER THE NORTHEAST TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
SCATTERED...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SOME CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAY MOVE INTO
COASTAL AREAS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WARM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH MEANS A BIT WARMER
EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES STABILIZE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ABOUT
THE SAME TEMPERATURES (MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER) AS OBSERVED TONIGHT.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BIT LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE BECOMES MORE LIMITED SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS THEN...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE
SHOWER COULD POP UP LATE. AT THIS TIME...PREFER TO HOLD OFF. WEAK
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WITH LESS MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST AS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF RETROGRADES
BACK WEST...WITH THE COASTAL BEND FALLING UNDER THE SHEAR AXIS.
HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS(PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0) OVER THE MARINE/COASTAL
BEND/VCT CROSSROADS AS WELL.  EXPECT TO SEE DIURNAL PATTERN OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 100-102 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  94  78  94  77  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  93  76  96  75  /  10  30  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 102  79 102  78  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             75  98  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  91  80  /  20  30  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 102  77 101  76  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  76  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  91  80  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 042331
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
631 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR AREA TAF SITES LOW...DESPITE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
WITHOUT A LOW-LEVEL JET...THINK THAT AN EARLY MORNING STRATUS
INTRUSION IS UNLIKELY.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY AND SIT RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DESPITE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WE CANT DISCOUNT THE LOW POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
WILL SHOW 10-20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 100-105 THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS
FOR MANY IS THAT SOME RELIEF IS ON THE WAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SHIFTS AND BRINGS THE WESTERLIES SOUTHWARD...A CERTAIN
SIGN OF THE CHANGING SEASON.

THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN.
HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES REMAIN ON HOW QUICK THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER TEXAS BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
INTO THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE UPPER HIGH INTO
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ERODE IT TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WANDERING
INTO THE REGION FROM OKLAHOMA STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS RAIN WOULD BE WELL AHEAD OF ANY COLD
FRONT...THE TEMPERATURES WOULD COOL DOWN DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND RAIN IN THE AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION MEANS DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY HOT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EITHER WAY...THIS IS ALL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...SO IT IS PROBABLY NOT
APPROPRIATE TO PICK EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. I DO HAVE A
HUNCH THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL STAY IN TACT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
IS BECAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS EROSION OF THE RIDGE MAY BE MINIMAL.
FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HAVE HEDGED
CONSENSUS RAINFALL PROBABILITIES TOWARD THE DRY SIDE AND HAVE
SHOWN JUST A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DOES NOT RAMP UP UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WHEN THE MAIN FRONT AND SECOND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PLOWS
INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES MAY BE STARKLY COOLER
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. IT IS TOO
MANY DAYS OUT TO GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT
FOR NOW WILL SHOW HIGHS FRIDAY DROPPING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRY/COOL ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL AS THE FRONT REACHES THE GULF COAST.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  97  78  99  79 /   0  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              76  97  76  99  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  96  74  97  75 /   5  10  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            77  96  76  98  77 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  96  76  98  77 /   5  10   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            79  98  79 100  80 /   5  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           76  95  75  98  78 /   5  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  76  98  77 /   5  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  74  97  75 /  10   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  96  73  98  74 /   0   5   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 042331
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
631 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR AREA TAF SITES LOW...DESPITE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
WITHOUT A LOW-LEVEL JET...THINK THAT AN EARLY MORNING STRATUS
INTRUSION IS UNLIKELY.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY AND SIT RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DESPITE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WE CANT DISCOUNT THE LOW POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
WILL SHOW 10-20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 100-105 THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS
FOR MANY IS THAT SOME RELIEF IS ON THE WAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SHIFTS AND BRINGS THE WESTERLIES SOUTHWARD...A CERTAIN
SIGN OF THE CHANGING SEASON.

THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN.
HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES REMAIN ON HOW QUICK THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER TEXAS BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
INTO THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE UPPER HIGH INTO
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ERODE IT TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WANDERING
INTO THE REGION FROM OKLAHOMA STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS RAIN WOULD BE WELL AHEAD OF ANY COLD
FRONT...THE TEMPERATURES WOULD COOL DOWN DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND RAIN IN THE AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION MEANS DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY HOT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EITHER WAY...THIS IS ALL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...SO IT IS PROBABLY NOT
APPROPRIATE TO PICK EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. I DO HAVE A
HUNCH THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL STAY IN TACT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
IS BECAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS EROSION OF THE RIDGE MAY BE MINIMAL.
FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HAVE HEDGED
CONSENSUS RAINFALL PROBABILITIES TOWARD THE DRY SIDE AND HAVE
SHOWN JUST A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DOES NOT RAMP UP UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WHEN THE MAIN FRONT AND SECOND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PLOWS
INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES MAY BE STARKLY COOLER
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. IT IS TOO
MANY DAYS OUT TO GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT
FOR NOW WILL SHOW HIGHS FRIDAY DROPPING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRY/COOL ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL AS THE FRONT REACHES THE GULF COAST.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  97  78  99  79 /   0  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              76  97  76  99  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  96  74  97  75 /   5  10  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            77  96  76  98  77 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  96  76  98  77 /   5  10   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            79  98  79 100  80 /   5  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           76  95  75  98  78 /   5  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  76  98  77 /   5  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  74  97  75 /  10   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  96  73  98  74 /   0   5   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 042331
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
631 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR AREA TAF SITES LOW...DESPITE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
WITHOUT A LOW-LEVEL JET...THINK THAT AN EARLY MORNING STRATUS
INTRUSION IS UNLIKELY.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY AND SIT RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DESPITE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WE CANT DISCOUNT THE LOW POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
WILL SHOW 10-20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 100-105 THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS
FOR MANY IS THAT SOME RELIEF IS ON THE WAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SHIFTS AND BRINGS THE WESTERLIES SOUTHWARD...A CERTAIN
SIGN OF THE CHANGING SEASON.

THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN.
HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES REMAIN ON HOW QUICK THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER TEXAS BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
INTO THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE UPPER HIGH INTO
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ERODE IT TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WANDERING
INTO THE REGION FROM OKLAHOMA STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS RAIN WOULD BE WELL AHEAD OF ANY COLD
FRONT...THE TEMPERATURES WOULD COOL DOWN DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND RAIN IN THE AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION MEANS DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY HOT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EITHER WAY...THIS IS ALL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...SO IT IS PROBABLY NOT
APPROPRIATE TO PICK EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. I DO HAVE A
HUNCH THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL STAY IN TACT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
IS BECAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS EROSION OF THE RIDGE MAY BE MINIMAL.
FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HAVE HEDGED
CONSENSUS RAINFALL PROBABILITIES TOWARD THE DRY SIDE AND HAVE
SHOWN JUST A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DOES NOT RAMP UP UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WHEN THE MAIN FRONT AND SECOND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PLOWS
INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES MAY BE STARKLY COOLER
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. IT IS TOO
MANY DAYS OUT TO GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT
FOR NOW WILL SHOW HIGHS FRIDAY DROPPING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRY/COOL ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL AS THE FRONT REACHES THE GULF COAST.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  97  78  99  79 /   0  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              76  97  76  99  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  96  74  97  75 /   5  10  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            77  96  76  98  77 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  96  76  98  77 /   5  10   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            79  98  79 100  80 /   5  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           76  95  75  98  78 /   5  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  76  98  77 /   5  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  74  97  75 /  10   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  96  73  98  74 /   0   5   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 042331
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
631 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR AREA TAF SITES LOW...DESPITE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
WITHOUT A LOW-LEVEL JET...THINK THAT AN EARLY MORNING STRATUS
INTRUSION IS UNLIKELY.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY AND SIT RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DESPITE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WE CANT DISCOUNT THE LOW POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
WILL SHOW 10-20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 100-105 THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS
FOR MANY IS THAT SOME RELIEF IS ON THE WAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SHIFTS AND BRINGS THE WESTERLIES SOUTHWARD...A CERTAIN
SIGN OF THE CHANGING SEASON.

THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN.
HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES REMAIN ON HOW QUICK THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER TEXAS BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
INTO THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE UPPER HIGH INTO
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ERODE IT TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WANDERING
INTO THE REGION FROM OKLAHOMA STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS RAIN WOULD BE WELL AHEAD OF ANY COLD
FRONT...THE TEMPERATURES WOULD COOL DOWN DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND RAIN IN THE AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION MEANS DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY HOT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EITHER WAY...THIS IS ALL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...SO IT IS PROBABLY NOT
APPROPRIATE TO PICK EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. I DO HAVE A
HUNCH THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL STAY IN TACT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
IS BECAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS EROSION OF THE RIDGE MAY BE MINIMAL.
FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HAVE HEDGED
CONSENSUS RAINFALL PROBABILITIES TOWARD THE DRY SIDE AND HAVE
SHOWN JUST A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DOES NOT RAMP UP UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WHEN THE MAIN FRONT AND SECOND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PLOWS
INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES MAY BE STARKLY COOLER
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. IT IS TOO
MANY DAYS OUT TO GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT
FOR NOW WILL SHOW HIGHS FRIDAY DROPPING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRY/COOL ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL AS THE FRONT REACHES THE GULF COAST.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  97  78  99  79 /   0  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              76  97  76  99  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  96  74  97  75 /   5  10  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            77  96  76  98  77 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  96  76  98  77 /   5  10   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            79  98  79 100  80 /   5  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           76  95  75  98  78 /   5  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  76  98  77 /   5  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  74  97  75 /  10   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  96  73  98  74 /   0   5   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 042326
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VCSH WILL BE NEAR KSAT AND KSSF THROUGH 01Z. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHRA LIE EAST OF I-35 BUT WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
AFTER THE SHRA DIE DOWN...VFR CONDITIONS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TYPICAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 15-17Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AFTER 17Z SATURDAY
EXCEPT AT KSSF...WHERE THE FIELD IS A LITTLE MORE SHELTERED. LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN EAST OF
I-35...BUT CHANCES ARE MINIMAL FOR IMPACTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WITH
PWS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HAS
ALLOWED TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER TEXAS FORCING THE SHEAR AXIS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
BRINGING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONLY NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DUE
TO LESS CLOUDINESS AND RAIN...WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER TEXAS. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRIER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DURING THE MID TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. A DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO TEXAS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH GEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ECMWF THURSDAY AND GFS FRIDAY. TO ADD A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST...THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTS IN A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  96  73  98  74 /  10  10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  99  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  97  75 /  10  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  99  77 100  78 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  75  98  76 /  10  10  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  97  74  98  74 /  10  -   -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  76  97  76 /  10  20  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  98  77 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  98  75  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 042326
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VCSH WILL BE NEAR KSAT AND KSSF THROUGH 01Z. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHRA LIE EAST OF I-35 BUT WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
AFTER THE SHRA DIE DOWN...VFR CONDITIONS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TYPICAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 15-17Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AFTER 17Z SATURDAY
EXCEPT AT KSSF...WHERE THE FIELD IS A LITTLE MORE SHELTERED. LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN EAST OF
I-35...BUT CHANCES ARE MINIMAL FOR IMPACTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WITH
PWS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HAS
ALLOWED TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER TEXAS FORCING THE SHEAR AXIS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
BRINGING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONLY NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DUE
TO LESS CLOUDINESS AND RAIN...WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER TEXAS. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRIER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DURING THE MID TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. A DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO TEXAS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH GEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ECMWF THURSDAY AND GFS FRIDAY. TO ADD A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST...THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTS IN A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  96  73  98  74 /  10  10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  99  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  97  75 /  10  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  99  77 100  78 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  75  98  76 /  10  10  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  97  74  98  74 /  10  -   -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  76  97  76 /  10  20  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  98  77 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  98  75  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33



000
FXUS64 KEWX 042326
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VCSH WILL BE NEAR KSAT AND KSSF THROUGH 01Z. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHRA LIE EAST OF I-35 BUT WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
AFTER THE SHRA DIE DOWN...VFR CONDITIONS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TYPICAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 15-17Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AFTER 17Z SATURDAY
EXCEPT AT KSSF...WHERE THE FIELD IS A LITTLE MORE SHELTERED. LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN EAST OF
I-35...BUT CHANCES ARE MINIMAL FOR IMPACTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WITH
PWS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HAS
ALLOWED TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER TEXAS FORCING THE SHEAR AXIS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
BRINGING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONLY NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DUE
TO LESS CLOUDINESS AND RAIN...WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER TEXAS. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRIER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DURING THE MID TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. A DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO TEXAS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH GEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ECMWF THURSDAY AND GFS FRIDAY. TO ADD A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST...THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTS IN A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  96  73  98  74 /  10  10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  99  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  97  75 /  10  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  99  77 100  78 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  75  98  76 /  10  10  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  97  74  98  74 /  10  -   -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  76  97  76 /  10  20  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  98  77 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  98  75  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33



000
FXUS64 KEWX 042326
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VCSH WILL BE NEAR KSAT AND KSSF THROUGH 01Z. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHRA LIE EAST OF I-35 BUT WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
AFTER THE SHRA DIE DOWN...VFR CONDITIONS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TYPICAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 15-17Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AFTER 17Z SATURDAY
EXCEPT AT KSSF...WHERE THE FIELD IS A LITTLE MORE SHELTERED. LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN EAST OF
I-35...BUT CHANCES ARE MINIMAL FOR IMPACTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WITH
PWS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HAS
ALLOWED TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER TEXAS FORCING THE SHEAR AXIS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
BRINGING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONLY NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DUE
TO LESS CLOUDINESS AND RAIN...WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER TEXAS. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRIER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DURING THE MID TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. A DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO TEXAS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH GEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ECMWF THURSDAY AND GFS FRIDAY. TO ADD A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST...THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTS IN A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  96  73  98  74 /  10  10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  99  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  97  75 /  10  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  99  77 100  78 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  75  98  76 /  10  10  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  97  74  98  74 /  10  -   -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  76  97  76 /  10  20  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  98  77 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  98  75  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33



000
FXUS64 KEWX 042326
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VCSH WILL BE NEAR KSAT AND KSSF THROUGH 01Z. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHRA LIE EAST OF I-35 BUT WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
AFTER THE SHRA DIE DOWN...VFR CONDITIONS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TYPICAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 15-17Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AFTER 17Z SATURDAY
EXCEPT AT KSSF...WHERE THE FIELD IS A LITTLE MORE SHELTERED. LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN EAST OF
I-35...BUT CHANCES ARE MINIMAL FOR IMPACTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WITH
PWS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HAS
ALLOWED TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER TEXAS FORCING THE SHEAR AXIS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
BRINGING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONLY NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DUE
TO LESS CLOUDINESS AND RAIN...WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER TEXAS. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRIER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DURING THE MID TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. A DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO TEXAS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH GEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ECMWF THURSDAY AND GFS FRIDAY. TO ADD A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST...THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTS IN A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  96  73  98  74 /  10  10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  99  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  97  75 /  10  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  99  77 100  78 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  75  98  76 /  10  10  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  97  74  98  74 /  10  -   -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  76  97  76 /  10  20  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  98  77 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  98  75  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33



000
FXUS64 KEWX 042326
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VCSH WILL BE NEAR KSAT AND KSSF THROUGH 01Z. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHRA LIE EAST OF I-35 BUT WILL NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
AFTER THE SHRA DIE DOWN...VFR CONDITIONS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL TYPICAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-10Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 15-17Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AFTER 17Z SATURDAY
EXCEPT AT KSSF...WHERE THE FIELD IS A LITTLE MORE SHELTERED. LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/-TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN EAST OF
I-35...BUT CHANCES ARE MINIMAL FOR IMPACTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WITH
PWS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HAS
ALLOWED TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER TEXAS FORCING THE SHEAR AXIS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
BRINGING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONLY NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DUE
TO LESS CLOUDINESS AND RAIN...WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER TEXAS. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRIER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DURING THE MID TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. A DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO TEXAS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH GEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ECMWF THURSDAY AND GFS FRIDAY. TO ADD A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST...THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTS IN A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  96  73  98  74 /  10  10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  99  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  97  75 /  10  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  99  77 100  78 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  75  98  76 /  10  10  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  97  74  98  74 /  10  -   -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  76  97  76 /  10  20  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  98  77 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  98  75  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMAF 042307
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
607 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours with some mid
and high clouds expected (especially at KCNM). Mainly southeast
winds of 5 to 15 mph expected with some gusts during the day
Saturday.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 151 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures will continue this weekend, Labor Day and
into mid next week as an upper ridge continues to plague the region.
An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will eject northeastward
into south central Canada by Sunday, but this will do little to
phase the ua ridge over Texas.  There may be a few thunderstorms
this afternoon/evening, and again Saturday, as surface dewpoints and
mid level theta e gradually increase, but the ua ridge appears to be
strong enough to prevent much convection from developing.  High
temperatures will be 5-7 degrees above normal through Labor Day, but
it does not appear we will crack record territory.

On Sunday, the upper ridge will become a little dilapidated from the
above mentioned ua trough ejecting into Canada, and will become more
southwest to northeast oriented over the region.  This will allow
mid and upper level moisture, some of which will peel away from
deteriorating Tropical Storm Kevin, to increase over western
portions of the forecast area.  Since surface dewpoints will also
rise into the mid and upper 50s throughout the higher terrain,
expect scattered thunderstorms to develop.  A surface trough will
strengthen south into the region Labor Day and nudge east, which
will allow for thunderstorm development across southeast New Mexico
and the Trans Pecos of west Texas.  Coverage may still not be that
great, but it does portend more change.  Gusty winds and heavy
rainfall will be possible with any storms that develop, but coverage
is still not expected to be more than 30 percent.

Another ua trough will follow the first over the northwestern U.S.
Tuesday, flatten the ua ridge somewhat, and aid in shunting the ua
ridge westward as the trough amplifies over the eastern ConUS late
next week.  This could possibly send a cold front into the area as
early as Thursday, with cooler conditions perhaps into next weekend.
This is still pretty far out in the extended, but will at least
carry a chance of thunderstorms, and cool temperatures off to normal
or below these days.  Stay tuned, especially since there are some
indications high temperatures could only be in the 80s Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/67



000
FXUS64 KMAF 042307
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
607 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours with some mid
and high clouds expected (especially at KCNM). Mainly southeast
winds of 5 to 15 mph expected with some gusts during the day
Saturday.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 151 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures will continue this weekend, Labor Day and
into mid next week as an upper ridge continues to plague the region.
An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will eject northeastward
into south central Canada by Sunday, but this will do little to
phase the ua ridge over Texas.  There may be a few thunderstorms
this afternoon/evening, and again Saturday, as surface dewpoints and
mid level theta e gradually increase, but the ua ridge appears to be
strong enough to prevent much convection from developing.  High
temperatures will be 5-7 degrees above normal through Labor Day, but
it does not appear we will crack record territory.

On Sunday, the upper ridge will become a little dilapidated from the
above mentioned ua trough ejecting into Canada, and will become more
southwest to northeast oriented over the region.  This will allow
mid and upper level moisture, some of which will peel away from
deteriorating Tropical Storm Kevin, to increase over western
portions of the forecast area.  Since surface dewpoints will also
rise into the mid and upper 50s throughout the higher terrain,
expect scattered thunderstorms to develop.  A surface trough will
strengthen south into the region Labor Day and nudge east, which
will allow for thunderstorm development across southeast New Mexico
and the Trans Pecos of west Texas.  Coverage may still not be that
great, but it does portend more change.  Gusty winds and heavy
rainfall will be possible with any storms that develop, but coverage
is still not expected to be more than 30 percent.

Another ua trough will follow the first over the northwestern U.S.
Tuesday, flatten the ua ridge somewhat, and aid in shunting the ua
ridge westward as the trough amplifies over the eastern ConUS late
next week.  This could possibly send a cold front into the area as
early as Thursday, with cooler conditions perhaps into next weekend.
This is still pretty far out in the extended, but will at least
carry a chance of thunderstorms, and cool temperatures off to normal
or below these days.  Stay tuned, especially since there are some
indications high temperatures could only be in the 80s Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/67



000
FXUS64 KMAF 042307
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
607 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours with some mid
and high clouds expected (especially at KCNM). Mainly southeast
winds of 5 to 15 mph expected with some gusts during the day
Saturday.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 151 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures will continue this weekend, Labor Day and
into mid next week as an upper ridge continues to plague the region.
An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will eject northeastward
into south central Canada by Sunday, but this will do little to
phase the ua ridge over Texas.  There may be a few thunderstorms
this afternoon/evening, and again Saturday, as surface dewpoints and
mid level theta e gradually increase, but the ua ridge appears to be
strong enough to prevent much convection from developing.  High
temperatures will be 5-7 degrees above normal through Labor Day, but
it does not appear we will crack record territory.

On Sunday, the upper ridge will become a little dilapidated from the
above mentioned ua trough ejecting into Canada, and will become more
southwest to northeast oriented over the region.  This will allow
mid and upper level moisture, some of which will peel away from
deteriorating Tropical Storm Kevin, to increase over western
portions of the forecast area.  Since surface dewpoints will also
rise into the mid and upper 50s throughout the higher terrain,
expect scattered thunderstorms to develop.  A surface trough will
strengthen south into the region Labor Day and nudge east, which
will allow for thunderstorm development across southeast New Mexico
and the Trans Pecos of west Texas.  Coverage may still not be that
great, but it does portend more change.  Gusty winds and heavy
rainfall will be possible with any storms that develop, but coverage
is still not expected to be more than 30 percent.

Another ua trough will follow the first over the northwestern U.S.
Tuesday, flatten the ua ridge somewhat, and aid in shunting the ua
ridge westward as the trough amplifies over the eastern ConUS late
next week.  This could possibly send a cold front into the area as
early as Thursday, with cooler conditions perhaps into next weekend.
This is still pretty far out in the extended, but will at least
carry a chance of thunderstorms, and cool temperatures off to normal
or below these days.  Stay tuned, especially since there are some
indications high temperatures could only be in the 80s Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/67



000
FXUS64 KMAF 042307
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
607 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours with some mid
and high clouds expected (especially at KCNM). Mainly southeast
winds of 5 to 15 mph expected with some gusts during the day
Saturday.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 151 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures will continue this weekend, Labor Day and
into mid next week as an upper ridge continues to plague the region.
An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will eject northeastward
into south central Canada by Sunday, but this will do little to
phase the ua ridge over Texas.  There may be a few thunderstorms
this afternoon/evening, and again Saturday, as surface dewpoints and
mid level theta e gradually increase, but the ua ridge appears to be
strong enough to prevent much convection from developing.  High
temperatures will be 5-7 degrees above normal through Labor Day, but
it does not appear we will crack record territory.

On Sunday, the upper ridge will become a little dilapidated from the
above mentioned ua trough ejecting into Canada, and will become more
southwest to northeast oriented over the region.  This will allow
mid and upper level moisture, some of which will peel away from
deteriorating Tropical Storm Kevin, to increase over western
portions of the forecast area.  Since surface dewpoints will also
rise into the mid and upper 50s throughout the higher terrain,
expect scattered thunderstorms to develop.  A surface trough will
strengthen south into the region Labor Day and nudge east, which
will allow for thunderstorm development across southeast New Mexico
and the Trans Pecos of west Texas.  Coverage may still not be that
great, but it does portend more change.  Gusty winds and heavy
rainfall will be possible with any storms that develop, but coverage
is still not expected to be more than 30 percent.

Another ua trough will follow the first over the northwestern U.S.
Tuesday, flatten the ua ridge somewhat, and aid in shunting the ua
ridge westward as the trough amplifies over the eastern ConUS late
next week.  This could possibly send a cold front into the area as
early as Thursday, with cooler conditions perhaps into next weekend.
This is still pretty far out in the extended, but will at least
carry a chance of thunderstorms, and cool temperatures off to normal
or below these days.  Stay tuned, especially since there are some
indications high temperatures could only be in the 80s Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/67


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KAMA 042246 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
546 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.  SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE WELL
INTO VFR RANGE.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 KT DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  LATE-DAY HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST
CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM.  ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.  INSTABILITY AXIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...ALLOWING FURTHER EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...LEADING TO LOW CERTAINTY IN THESE PERIODS.  WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  92  68  93  68 /   5   5   5  20  20
BEAVER OK                  71  97  71  97  67 /   5   5   5  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              66  91  65  91  61 /  10  20  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  71  95  72  96  72 /   5   5   5  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              66  93  67  95  66 /  10   5   5  20  20
CANYON TX                  65  92  67  93  67 /   5   5   5  20  20
CLARENDON TX               67  93  69  95  68 /   0   5   5  20  10
DALHART TX                 65  92  65  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  69  95  69  96  66 /  10   5   5  20  20
HEREFORD TX                65  91  66  93  67 /  10   5   5  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                71  95  72  97  69 /   0   5   5  20  20
PAMPA TX                   66  92  68  94  68 /   5   0   5  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                70  94  71  96  70 /   0   0   5  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              70  95  71  98  71 /   0   0   5  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/05




000
FXUS64 KAMA 042246 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
546 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.  SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE WELL
INTO VFR RANGE.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 KT DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.  LATE-DAY HIGH-BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED.  VFR FORECAST
CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM.  ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.  INSTABILITY AXIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...ALLOWING FURTHER EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...LEADING TO LOW CERTAINTY IN THESE PERIODS.  WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  92  68  93  68 /   5   5   5  20  20
BEAVER OK                  71  97  71  97  67 /   5   5   5  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              66  91  65  91  61 /  10  20  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  71  95  72  96  72 /   5   5   5  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              66  93  67  95  66 /  10   5   5  20  20
CANYON TX                  65  92  67  93  67 /   5   5   5  20  20
CLARENDON TX               67  93  69  95  68 /   0   5   5  20  10
DALHART TX                 65  92  65  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  69  95  69  96  66 /  10   5   5  20  20
HEREFORD TX                65  91  66  93  67 /  10   5   5  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                71  95  72  97  69 /   0   5   5  20  20
PAMPA TX                   66  92  68  94  68 /   5   0   5  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                70  94  71  96  70 /   0   0   5  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              70  95  71  98  71 /   0   0   5  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/05



000
FXUS64 KAMA 042101
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
401 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM.  ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.  INSTABILITY AXIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...ALLOWING FURTHER EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...LEADING TO LOW CERTAINTY IN THESE PERIODS.  WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  92  68  93  68 /   5   5   5  20  20
BEAVER OK                  71  97  71  97  67 /   5   5   5  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              66  91  65  91  61 /  10  20  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  71  95  72  96  72 /   5   5   5  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              66  93  67  95  66 /   5   5   5  20  20
CANYON TX                  65  92  67  93  67 /   5   5   5  20  20
CLARENDON TX               67  93  69  95  68 /   5   5   5  20  10
DALHART TX                 65  92  65  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  69  95  69  96  66 /   5   5   5  20  20
HEREFORD TX                65  91  66  93  67 /   5   5   5  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                71  95  72  97  69 /   0   5   5  20  20
PAMPA TX                   66  92  68  94  68 /   5   0   5  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                70  94  71  96  70 /   0   0   5  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              70  95  71  98  71 /   0   0   5  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/03




000
FXUS64 KAMA 042101
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
401 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM.  ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.  INSTABILITY AXIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...ALLOWING FURTHER EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...LEADING TO LOW CERTAINTY IN THESE PERIODS.  WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  92  68  93  68 /   5   5   5  20  20
BEAVER OK                  71  97  71  97  67 /   5   5   5  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              66  91  65  91  61 /  10  20  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  71  95  72  96  72 /   5   5   5  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              66  93  67  95  66 /   5   5   5  20  20
CANYON TX                  65  92  67  93  67 /   5   5   5  20  20
CLARENDON TX               67  93  69  95  68 /   5   5   5  20  10
DALHART TX                 65  92  65  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  69  95  69  96  66 /   5   5   5  20  20
HEREFORD TX                65  91  66  93  67 /   5   5   5  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                71  95  72  97  69 /   0   5   5  20  20
PAMPA TX                   66  92  68  94  68 /   5   0   5  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                70  94  71  96  70 /   0   0   5  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              70  95  71  98  71 /   0   0   5  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/03



000
FXUS64 KAMA 042101
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
401 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM.  ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.  INSTABILITY AXIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...ALLOWING FURTHER EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT TUESDAY AND
BEYOND...LEADING TO LOW CERTAINTY IN THESE PERIODS.  WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  92  68  93  68 /   5   5   5  20  20
BEAVER OK                  71  97  71  97  67 /   5   5   5  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              66  91  65  91  61 /  10  20  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  71  95  72  96  72 /   5   5   5  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              66  93  67  95  66 /   5   5   5  20  20
CANYON TX                  65  92  67  93  67 /   5   5   5  20  20
CLARENDON TX               67  93  69  95  68 /   5   5   5  20  10
DALHART TX                 65  92  65  93  62 /  10  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  69  95  69  96  66 /   5   5   5  20  20
HEREFORD TX                65  91  66  93  67 /   5   5   5  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                71  95  72  97  69 /   0   5   5  20  20
PAMPA TX                   66  92  68  94  68 /   5   0   5  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                70  94  71  96  70 /   0   0   5  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              70  95  71  98  71 /   0   0   5  10   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/03




000
FXUS64 KSJT 042049
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
349 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Continued hot and dry in the short term across West Central Texas.
Cumulus field this afternoon across the area is showing a little
more development than in recent days, although not enough so far to
break through and develop into any showers or storms quite yet. Not
impossible for that to happen over the next few hours and will leave
the mention of isolated storms for the remainder of the afternoon,
but anything that might develop should dissipate well before sunset.
Will not carry a mention of storms into tonight.

Guidance looked a little too warm on tonight slows, and given the
temperatures we are seeing as of 20Z across the area, a little too
cool for highs on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged this cycle.
Models hold the upper ridge firmly in place over Texas through
this holiday weekend, and they still develop a broad upper trough
across the northern CONUS. Afternoon highs mainly in the 95 to
around 100 range still look likely for the for Sunday, Monday, and
Tuesday periods. Then, the upper ridge axis shifts west, as an
upper trough develops across the eastern CONUS. With the flow
aloft becoming more northwesterly by mid week, continuing rain
chances for mid to late next week look reasonable. What`s more, a
medium range model blend now indicates a weak front will most
likely move into West Central Texas, sometime during the Thursday
and Thursday night time frame, and stall. So, the best rain
chances look good for Thursday and again on Friday. With increased
cloud cover and cooler temperatures at 850mb, afternoon highs
closer to seasonal normals look best for mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  96  76  97 /   0   5   5   0
San Angelo  72  97  75  98 /   5   5   0   0
Junction  72  94  73  96 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSJT 042049
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
349 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Continued hot and dry in the short term across West Central Texas.
Cumulus field this afternoon across the area is showing a little
more development than in recent days, although not enough so far to
break through and develop into any showers or storms quite yet. Not
impossible for that to happen over the next few hours and will leave
the mention of isolated storms for the remainder of the afternoon,
but anything that might develop should dissipate well before sunset.
Will not carry a mention of storms into tonight.

Guidance looked a little too warm on tonight slows, and given the
temperatures we are seeing as of 20Z across the area, a little too
cool for highs on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged this cycle.
Models hold the upper ridge firmly in place over Texas through
this holiday weekend, and they still develop a broad upper trough
across the northern CONUS. Afternoon highs mainly in the 95 to
around 100 range still look likely for the for Sunday, Monday, and
Tuesday periods. Then, the upper ridge axis shifts west, as an
upper trough develops across the eastern CONUS. With the flow
aloft becoming more northwesterly by mid week, continuing rain
chances for mid to late next week look reasonable. What`s more, a
medium range model blend now indicates a weak front will most
likely move into West Central Texas, sometime during the Thursday
and Thursday night time frame, and stall. So, the best rain
chances look good for Thursday and again on Friday. With increased
cloud cover and cooler temperatures at 850mb, afternoon highs
closer to seasonal normals look best for mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  96  76  97 /   0   5   5   0
San Angelo  72  97  75  98 /   5   5   0   0
Junction  72  94  73  96 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 042043
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
343 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY AND SIT RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DESPITE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WE CANT DISCOUNT THE LOW POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
WILL SHOW 10-20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 100-105 THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS
FOR MANY IS THAT SOME RELIEF IS ON THE WAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SHIFTS AND BRINGS THE WESTERLIES SOUTHWARD...A CERTAIN
SIGN OF THE CHANGING SEASON.

THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN.
HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES REMAIN ON HOW QUICK THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER TEXAS BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
INTO THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE UPPER HIGH INTO
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ERODE IT TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WANDERING
INTO THE REGION FROM OKLAHOMA STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS RAIN WOULD BE WELL AHEAD OF ANY COLD
FRONT...THE TEMPERATURES WOULD COOL DOWN DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND RAIN IN THE AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION MEANS DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY HOT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EITHER WAY...THIS IS ALL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...SO IT IS PROBABLY NOT
APPROPRIATE TO PICK EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. I DO HAVE A
HUNCH THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL STAY IN TACT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
IS BECAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS EROSION OF THE RIDGE MAY BE MINIMAL.
FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HAVE HEDGED
CONSENSUS RAINFALL PROBABILITIES TOWARD THE DRY SIDE AND HAVE
SHOWN JUST A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DOES NOT RAMP UP UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WHEN THE MAIN FRONT AND SECOND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PLOWS
INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES MAY BE STARKLY COOLER
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. IT IS TOO
MANY DAYS OUT TO GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT
FOR NOW WILL SHOW HIGHS FRIDAY DROPPING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRY/COOL ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL AS THE FRONT REACHES THE GULF COAST.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS AS WELL. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL TEXAS...NEAR WACO...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE KACT TAF
AT THIS TIME.

AJS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  97  78  99  79 /   0  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              76  97  76  99  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  96  74  97  75 /   5  10  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            77  96  76  98  77 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  96  76  98  77 /   5  10   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            79  98  79 100  80 /   5  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           76  95  75  98  78 /   5  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  76  98  77 /   5  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  74  97  75 /  10   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  96  73  98  74 /   0   5   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 042043
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
343 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY AND SIT RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DESPITE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WE CANT DISCOUNT THE LOW POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
WILL SHOW 10-20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 100-105 THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS
FOR MANY IS THAT SOME RELIEF IS ON THE WAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SHIFTS AND BRINGS THE WESTERLIES SOUTHWARD...A CERTAIN
SIGN OF THE CHANGING SEASON.

THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN.
HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES REMAIN ON HOW QUICK THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER TEXAS BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
INTO THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE UPPER HIGH INTO
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ERODE IT TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WANDERING
INTO THE REGION FROM OKLAHOMA STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS RAIN WOULD BE WELL AHEAD OF ANY COLD
FRONT...THE TEMPERATURES WOULD COOL DOWN DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND RAIN IN THE AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION MEANS DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY HOT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EITHER WAY...THIS IS ALL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...SO IT IS PROBABLY NOT
APPROPRIATE TO PICK EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. I DO HAVE A
HUNCH THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL STAY IN TACT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
IS BECAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS EROSION OF THE RIDGE MAY BE MINIMAL.
FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HAVE HEDGED
CONSENSUS RAINFALL PROBABILITIES TOWARD THE DRY SIDE AND HAVE
SHOWN JUST A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DOES NOT RAMP UP UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WHEN THE MAIN FRONT AND SECOND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PLOWS
INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES MAY BE STARKLY COOLER
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. IT IS TOO
MANY DAYS OUT TO GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT
FOR NOW WILL SHOW HIGHS FRIDAY DROPPING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRY/COOL ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL AS THE FRONT REACHES THE GULF COAST.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS AS WELL. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL TEXAS...NEAR WACO...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE KACT TAF
AT THIS TIME.

AJS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  97  78  99  79 /   0  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              76  97  76  99  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  96  74  97  75 /   5  10  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            77  96  76  98  77 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  96  76  98  77 /   5  10   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            79  98  79 100  80 /   5  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           76  95  75  98  78 /   5  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  76  98  77 /   5  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  74  97  75 /  10   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  96  73  98  74 /   0   5   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 042043
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
343 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY AND SIT RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DESPITE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WE CANT DISCOUNT THE LOW POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
WILL SHOW 10-20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 100-105 THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS
FOR MANY IS THAT SOME RELIEF IS ON THE WAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SHIFTS AND BRINGS THE WESTERLIES SOUTHWARD...A CERTAIN
SIGN OF THE CHANGING SEASON.

THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN.
HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES REMAIN ON HOW QUICK THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER TEXAS BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
INTO THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE UPPER HIGH INTO
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ERODE IT TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WANDERING
INTO THE REGION FROM OKLAHOMA STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS RAIN WOULD BE WELL AHEAD OF ANY COLD
FRONT...THE TEMPERATURES WOULD COOL DOWN DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND RAIN IN THE AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION MEANS DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY HOT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EITHER WAY...THIS IS ALL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...SO IT IS PROBABLY NOT
APPROPRIATE TO PICK EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. I DO HAVE A
HUNCH THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL STAY IN TACT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
IS BECAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS EROSION OF THE RIDGE MAY BE MINIMAL.
FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HAVE HEDGED
CONSENSUS RAINFALL PROBABILITIES TOWARD THE DRY SIDE AND HAVE
SHOWN JUST A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DOES NOT RAMP UP UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WHEN THE MAIN FRONT AND SECOND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PLOWS
INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES MAY BE STARKLY COOLER
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. IT IS TOO
MANY DAYS OUT TO GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT
FOR NOW WILL SHOW HIGHS FRIDAY DROPPING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRY/COOL ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL AS THE FRONT REACHES THE GULF COAST.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS AS WELL. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL TEXAS...NEAR WACO...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE KACT TAF
AT THIS TIME.

AJS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  97  78  99  79 /   0  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              76  97  76  99  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  96  74  97  75 /   5  10  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            77  96  76  98  77 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  96  76  98  77 /   5  10   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            79  98  79 100  80 /   5  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           76  95  75  98  78 /   5  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  76  98  77 /   5  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  74  97  75 /  10   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  96  73  98  74 /   0   5   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 042043
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
343 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY AND SIT RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DESPITE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER
BECAUSE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WE CANT DISCOUNT THE LOW POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
WILL SHOW 10-20 POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 100-105 THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS
FOR MANY IS THAT SOME RELIEF IS ON THE WAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SHIFTS AND BRINGS THE WESTERLIES SOUTHWARD...A CERTAIN
SIGN OF THE CHANGING SEASON.

THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN.
HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES REMAIN ON HOW QUICK THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER TEXAS BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
INTO THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE UPPER HIGH INTO
THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ERODE IT TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WANDERING
INTO THE REGION FROM OKLAHOMA STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS RAIN WOULD BE WELL AHEAD OF ANY COLD
FRONT...THE TEMPERATURES WOULD COOL DOWN DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND RAIN IN THE AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION MEANS DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY HOT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EITHER WAY...THIS IS ALL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...SO IT IS PROBABLY NOT
APPROPRIATE TO PICK EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. I DO HAVE A
HUNCH THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL STAY IN TACT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS
IS BECAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS EROSION OF THE RIDGE MAY BE MINIMAL.
FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HAVE HEDGED
CONSENSUS RAINFALL PROBABILITIES TOWARD THE DRY SIDE AND HAVE
SHOWN JUST A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES.

CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL DOES NOT RAMP UP UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WHEN THE MAIN FRONT AND SECOND UPPER TROUGH AXIS PLOWS
INTO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT INTO FRIDAY AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES MAY BE STARKLY COOLER
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF POST-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. IT IS TOO
MANY DAYS OUT TO GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT
FOR NOW WILL SHOW HIGHS FRIDAY DROPPING INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRY/COOL ADVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL AS THE FRONT REACHES THE GULF COAST.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS AS WELL. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL TEXAS...NEAR WACO...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE KACT TAF
AT THIS TIME.

AJS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  97  78  99  79 /   0  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              76  97  76  99  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  96  74  97  75 /   5  10  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            77  96  76  98  77 /   0  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  96  76  98  77 /   5  10   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            79  98  79 100  80 /   5  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           76  95  75  98  78 /   5  10  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  97  76  98  77 /   5  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  97  74  97  75 /  10   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  96  73  98  74 /   0   5   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 042020
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER SE TX.
PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER EXTENSIVE. THE
NAM12 INITIALIZED BEST AND VERIFIED THE BEST TODAY WITH IT`S
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM12 IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
ON SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-800 MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB.
MOISTURE LEVELS AGAIN LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR 30/40 PERCENT COVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO SE TX SAT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE GETS HERE AND IS DISPLACED TO THE W-NW
OF SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. PW VALUES ON SUNDAY DROP A BIT BUT ARE
STILL BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE HIGHER SO IN
THEORY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
FOR NOW. IF GOING TO THE BEACH OVER THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS COUPLED WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 102 AND 106 DEGREES. ITS NOT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL
PLENTY OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON LABOR DAY. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER NORTH TEXAS BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SE TX WILL BECOME NE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO APPROACH SE TX IN THE AFTN. PW
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 2.00 INCHES IN THE AFTN WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THE
DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. JET DYNAMICS NOT THE
BEST ON MONDAY AS SE TX LOOKS LIKE IT`LL LIE IN THE SUBSIDENT
REGION OF THE JET.

PW VALUES LOWER TUES/WED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
RAINY WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS A S/WV MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. THE GFS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND
LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ITS TROUGH IS NOT AS SHARPLY DEFINED.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 43

&&

.MARINE...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN AS EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXPANDS WESTWARD AND
INFLUENCES LOCAL MARITIME CONDITIONS. SCATTERED EARLY DAY
SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WITHIN HEAVY RAIN...A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM
THROUGH LABOR DAY. AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE OVER NEAR 2
FOOT SEAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF LOUISIANA LABOR DAY MAY
INCREASE EARLY WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  95  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 042020
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER SE TX.
PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.00 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT...COVERAGE HAS BEEN RATHER EXTENSIVE. THE
NAM12 INITIALIZED BEST AND VERIFIED THE BEST TODAY WITH IT`S
LIKELY POPS. THE NAM12 IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
ON SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.00 INCHES. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900-800 MB WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB.
MOISTURE LEVELS AGAIN LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR 30/40 PERCENT COVERAGE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO SE TX SAT/SUN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE NEVER QUITE GETS HERE AND IS DISPLACED TO THE W-NW
OF SE TX. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
ALSO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST. PW VALUES ON SUNDAY DROP A BIT BUT ARE
STILL BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.00 WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE HIGHER SO IN
THEORY...COVERAGE SHOULD BE A BIT LESS. WILL MAINTAIN 20/30 POPS
FOR NOW. IF GOING TO THE BEACH OVER THE WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS COUPLED WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 102 AND 106 DEGREES. ITS NOT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT STILL
PLENTY OPPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THINGS ARE A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON LABOR DAY. THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER NORTH TEXAS BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NE TO SW. THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SE TX WILL BECOME NE AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO APPROACH SE TX IN THE AFTN. PW
VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 2.00 INCHES IN THE AFTN WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THE
DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. JET DYNAMICS NOT THE
BEST ON MONDAY AS SE TX LOOKS LIKE IT`LL LIE IN THE SUBSIDENT
REGION OF THE JET.

PW VALUES LOWER TUES/WED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
RAINY WEATHER RETURNS AGAIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AS A S/WV MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND MOISTURE. THE GFS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER BUT BOTH MODELS
EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND
LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ITS TROUGH IS NOT AS SHARPLY DEFINED.
EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. 43

&&

.MARINE...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN AS EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXPANDS WESTWARD AND
INFLUENCES LOCAL MARITIME CONDITIONS. SCATTERED EARLY DAY
SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS LOWERING
VISIBILITIES WITHIN HEAVY RAIN...A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM
THROUGH LABOR DAY. AVERAGE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ONSHORE OVER NEAR 2
FOOT SEAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF LOUISIANA LABOR DAY MAY
INCREASE EARLY WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  95  77 /  30  40  10  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  81  90  81 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 042006
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
206 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
DAY TIME HEATING AND IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN THROUGH A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FLOWING OVER THE REGION...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ARE KEEPING LAPSE RATES WEAK...RESULTING IN
FEWER STORMS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST
AND NORTH OF LAS CRUCES...DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AREAS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF LAS CRUCES ARE A BIT MORE STABLE AND HAVE A BIT
LESS MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN FEWER SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS
BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT MOST
STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAKER. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT
A FEW AREAS OF MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES MAY OCCUR
NEAR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA REGION
TONIGHT.

DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE AND WEAKER AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA PULLS IT APART AT ITS NORTHERN END. ALSO...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...HELPING TO
SUPPRESS FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND HEATING AROUND TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH JUST A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. MOUNTAIN ZONES
WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED STORMS OVER
THE REGION. MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL SEE A MORE SCATTERED DISTRIBUTION
OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DO PROJECT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE NEXT
FRIDAY. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
HELP KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/00Z-06/00Z.
P6SM SCT-BKN070-090 BKN-OVC150-200 THRU PD. SCT 6SM SHRA BKN040-060
WITH ISOLD TS WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER.
WINDS GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE AND AREA MOUNTAINS...BUT AREAS EAST WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           67  92  69  93 /  20  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              65  89  67  90 /  20  20  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              67  91  67  91 /  30  30  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              51  70  52  71 /  40  60  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  86  66  88 /  40  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             58  78  59  80 /  50  40  30  20
DEMING                  63  88  65  90 /  40  20  30  20
LORDSBURG               62  85  64  87 /  40  30  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  93  73  94 /  20  20  30  20
DELL CITY               70  96  72  96 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            70  95  72  96 /  20  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              67  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20
FABENS                  68  94  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
SANTA TERESA            68  91  70  92 /  20  20  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  90  68  91 /  20  30  40  20
JORNADA RANGE           66  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  20
HATCH                   63  89  65  91 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS                65  89  66  91 /  40  20  30  20
OROGRANDE               69  91  70  91 /  20  20  30  20
MAYHILL                 57  77  57  79 /  30  50  40  40
MESCALERO               55  80  55  80 /  40  50  40  30
TIMBERON                58  78  59  78 /  30  50  40  30
WINSTON                 55  77  57  78 /  50  40  30  40
HILLSBORO               60  85  62  87 /  40  30  30  30
SPACEPORT               64  88  66  90 /  30  20  30  20
LAKE ROBERTS            51  77  53  81 /  50  40  30  30
HURLEY                  59  81  60  83 /  40  30  30  20
CLIFF                   58  83  60  85 /  50  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              53  79  55  82 /  40  40  30  20
FAYWOOD                 59  83  61  85 /  40  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  63  85  64  86 /  40  30  30  20
HACHITA                 62  86  63  89 /  40  30  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  84  63  86 /  40  50  30  40
CLOVERDALE              60  80  62  82 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 GRZYWACZ



000
FXUS64 KEPZ 042006
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
206 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
DAY TIME HEATING AND IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN THROUGH A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FLOWING OVER THE REGION...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ARE KEEPING LAPSE RATES WEAK...RESULTING IN
FEWER STORMS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST
AND NORTH OF LAS CRUCES...DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AREAS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF LAS CRUCES ARE A BIT MORE STABLE AND HAVE A BIT
LESS MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN FEWER SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS
BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT MOST
STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAKER. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT
A FEW AREAS OF MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES MAY OCCUR
NEAR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA REGION
TONIGHT.

DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE AND WEAKER AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA PULLS IT APART AT ITS NORTHERN END. ALSO...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...HELPING TO
SUPPRESS FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND HEATING AROUND TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH JUST A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. MOUNTAIN ZONES
WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED STORMS OVER
THE REGION. MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL SEE A MORE SCATTERED DISTRIBUTION
OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DO PROJECT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE NEXT
FRIDAY. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
HELP KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/00Z-06/00Z.
P6SM SCT-BKN070-090 BKN-OVC150-200 THRU PD. SCT 6SM SHRA BKN040-060
WITH ISOLD TS WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER.
WINDS GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE AND AREA MOUNTAINS...BUT AREAS EAST WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           67  92  69  93 /  20  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              65  89  67  90 /  20  20  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              67  91  67  91 /  30  30  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              51  70  52  71 /  40  60  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  86  66  88 /  40  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             58  78  59  80 /  50  40  30  20
DEMING                  63  88  65  90 /  40  20  30  20
LORDSBURG               62  85  64  87 /  40  30  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  93  73  94 /  20  20  30  20
DELL CITY               70  96  72  96 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            70  95  72  96 /  20  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              67  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20
FABENS                  68  94  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
SANTA TERESA            68  91  70  92 /  20  20  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  90  68  91 /  20  30  40  20
JORNADA RANGE           66  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  20
HATCH                   63  89  65  91 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS                65  89  66  91 /  40  20  30  20
OROGRANDE               69  91  70  91 /  20  20  30  20
MAYHILL                 57  77  57  79 /  30  50  40  40
MESCALERO               55  80  55  80 /  40  50  40  30
TIMBERON                58  78  59  78 /  30  50  40  30
WINSTON                 55  77  57  78 /  50  40  30  40
HILLSBORO               60  85  62  87 /  40  30  30  30
SPACEPORT               64  88  66  90 /  30  20  30  20
LAKE ROBERTS            51  77  53  81 /  50  40  30  30
HURLEY                  59  81  60  83 /  40  30  30  20
CLIFF                   58  83  60  85 /  50  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              53  79  55  82 /  40  40  30  20
FAYWOOD                 59  83  61  85 /  40  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  63  85  64  86 /  40  30  30  20
HACHITA                 62  86  63  89 /  40  30  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  84  63  86 /  40  50  30  40
CLOVERDALE              60  80  62  82 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 GRZYWACZ



000
FXUS64 KEPZ 042006
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
206 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
DAY TIME HEATING AND IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN THROUGH A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FLOWING OVER THE REGION...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ARE KEEPING LAPSE RATES WEAK...RESULTING IN
FEWER STORMS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST
AND NORTH OF LAS CRUCES...DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AREAS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF LAS CRUCES ARE A BIT MORE STABLE AND HAVE A BIT
LESS MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN FEWER SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS
BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT MOST
STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAKER. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT
A FEW AREAS OF MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES MAY OCCUR
NEAR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA REGION
TONIGHT.

DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE AND WEAKER AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA PULLS IT APART AT ITS NORTHERN END. ALSO...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...HELPING TO
SUPPRESS FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND HEATING AROUND TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH JUST A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. MOUNTAIN ZONES
WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED STORMS OVER
THE REGION. MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL SEE A MORE SCATTERED DISTRIBUTION
OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DO PROJECT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE NEXT
FRIDAY. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
HELP KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/00Z-06/00Z.
P6SM SCT-BKN070-090 BKN-OVC150-200 THRU PD. SCT 6SM SHRA BKN040-060
WITH ISOLD TS WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER.
WINDS GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE AND AREA MOUNTAINS...BUT AREAS EAST WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           67  92  69  93 /  20  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              65  89  67  90 /  20  20  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              67  91  67  91 /  30  30  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              51  70  52  71 /  40  60  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  86  66  88 /  40  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             58  78  59  80 /  50  40  30  20
DEMING                  63  88  65  90 /  40  20  30  20
LORDSBURG               62  85  64  87 /  40  30  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  93  73  94 /  20  20  30  20
DELL CITY               70  96  72  96 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            70  95  72  96 /  20  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              67  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20
FABENS                  68  94  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
SANTA TERESA            68  91  70  92 /  20  20  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  90  68  91 /  20  30  40  20
JORNADA RANGE           66  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  20
HATCH                   63  89  65  91 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS                65  89  66  91 /  40  20  30  20
OROGRANDE               69  91  70  91 /  20  20  30  20
MAYHILL                 57  77  57  79 /  30  50  40  40
MESCALERO               55  80  55  80 /  40  50  40  30
TIMBERON                58  78  59  78 /  30  50  40  30
WINSTON                 55  77  57  78 /  50  40  30  40
HILLSBORO               60  85  62  87 /  40  30  30  30
SPACEPORT               64  88  66  90 /  30  20  30  20
LAKE ROBERTS            51  77  53  81 /  50  40  30  30
HURLEY                  59  81  60  83 /  40  30  30  20
CLIFF                   58  83  60  85 /  50  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              53  79  55  82 /  40  40  30  20
FAYWOOD                 59  83  61  85 /  40  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  63  85  64  86 /  40  30  30  20
HACHITA                 62  86  63  89 /  40  30  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  84  63  86 /  40  50  30  40
CLOVERDALE              60  80  62  82 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 GRZYWACZ



000
FXUS64 KEPZ 042006
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
206 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
DAY TIME HEATING AND IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN THROUGH A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FLOWING OVER THE REGION...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ARE KEEPING LAPSE RATES WEAK...RESULTING IN
FEWER STORMS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST
AND NORTH OF LAS CRUCES...DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AREAS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF LAS CRUCES ARE A BIT MORE STABLE AND HAVE A BIT
LESS MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN FEWER SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS
BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT MOST
STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAKER. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT
A FEW AREAS OF MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES MAY OCCUR
NEAR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA REGION
TONIGHT.

DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE AND WEAKER AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA PULLS IT APART AT ITS NORTHERN END. ALSO...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...HELPING TO
SUPPRESS FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND HEATING AROUND TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH JUST A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. MOUNTAIN ZONES
WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED STORMS OVER
THE REGION. MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL SEE A MORE SCATTERED DISTRIBUTION
OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DO PROJECT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE NEXT
FRIDAY. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
HELP KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/00Z-06/00Z.
P6SM SCT-BKN070-090 BKN-OVC150-200 THRU PD. SCT 6SM SHRA BKN040-060
WITH ISOLD TS WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER.
WINDS GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE AND AREA MOUNTAINS...BUT AREAS EAST WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           67  92  69  93 /  20  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              65  89  67  90 /  20  20  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              67  91  67  91 /  30  30  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              51  70  52  71 /  40  60  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  86  66  88 /  40  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             58  78  59  80 /  50  40  30  20
DEMING                  63  88  65  90 /  40  20  30  20
LORDSBURG               62  85  64  87 /  40  30  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  93  73  94 /  20  20  30  20
DELL CITY               70  96  72  96 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            70  95  72  96 /  20  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              67  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20
FABENS                  68  94  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
SANTA TERESA            68  91  70  92 /  20  20  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  90  68  91 /  20  30  40  20
JORNADA RANGE           66  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  20
HATCH                   63  89  65  91 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS                65  89  66  91 /  40  20  30  20
OROGRANDE               69  91  70  91 /  20  20  30  20
MAYHILL                 57  77  57  79 /  30  50  40  40
MESCALERO               55  80  55  80 /  40  50  40  30
TIMBERON                58  78  59  78 /  30  50  40  30
WINSTON                 55  77  57  78 /  50  40  30  40
HILLSBORO               60  85  62  87 /  40  30  30  30
SPACEPORT               64  88  66  90 /  30  20  30  20
LAKE ROBERTS            51  77  53  81 /  50  40  30  30
HURLEY                  59  81  60  83 /  40  30  30  20
CLIFF                   58  83  60  85 /  50  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              53  79  55  82 /  40  40  30  20
FAYWOOD                 59  83  61  85 /  40  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  63  85  64  86 /  40  30  30  20
HACHITA                 62  86  63  89 /  40  30  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  84  63  86 /  40  50  30  40
CLOVERDALE              60  80  62  82 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 GRZYWACZ



000
FXUS64 KEPZ 042006
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
206 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE THICK CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
DAY TIME HEATING AND IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN THROUGH A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FLOWING OVER THE REGION...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ARE KEEPING LAPSE RATES WEAK...RESULTING IN
FEWER STORMS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST
AND NORTH OF LAS CRUCES...DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AREAS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF LAS CRUCES ARE A BIT MORE STABLE AND HAVE A BIT
LESS MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN FEWER SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A STILL A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS
BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT MOST
STORMS WILL REMAIN WEAKER. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED BUT
A FEW AREAS OF MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES MAY OCCUR
NEAR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA REGION
TONIGHT.

DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE AND WEAKER AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA PULLS IT APART AT ITS NORTHERN END. ALSO...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...HELPING TO
SUPPRESS FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND HEATING AROUND TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE FOR THE MOST PART LIGHT AND
SPOTTY WITH JUST A FEW AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. MOUNTAIN ZONES
WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED STORMS OVER
THE REGION. MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL SEE A MORE SCATTERED DISTRIBUTION
OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DO PROJECT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE NEXT
FRIDAY. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
HELP KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/00Z-06/00Z.
P6SM SCT-BKN070-090 BKN-OVC150-200 THRU PD. SCT 6SM SHRA BKN040-060
WITH ISOLD TS WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER.
WINDS GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE AND AREA MOUNTAINS...BUT AREAS EAST WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  93  72  94 /  20  20  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           67  92  69  93 /  20  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              65  89  67  90 /  20  20  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              67  91  67  91 /  30  30  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              51  70  52  71 /  40  60  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  86  66  88 /  40  30  30  20
SILVER CITY             58  78  59  80 /  50  40  30  20
DEMING                  63  88  65  90 /  40  20  30  20
LORDSBURG               62  85  64  87 /  40  30  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  93  73  94 /  20  20  30  20
DELL CITY               70  96  72  96 /  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            70  95  72  96 /  20  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              67  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20
FABENS                  68  94  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
SANTA TERESA            68  91  70  92 /  20  20  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  90  68  91 /  20  30  40  20
JORNADA RANGE           66  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  20
HATCH                   63  89  65  91 /  30  20  30  20
COLUMBUS                65  89  66  91 /  40  20  30  20
OROGRANDE               69  91  70  91 /  20  20  30  20
MAYHILL                 57  77  57  79 /  30  50  40  40
MESCALERO               55  80  55  80 /  40  50  40  30
TIMBERON                58  78  59  78 /  30  50  40  30
WINSTON                 55  77  57  78 /  50  40  30  40
HILLSBORO               60  85  62  87 /  40  30  30  30
SPACEPORT               64  88  66  90 /  30  20  30  20
LAKE ROBERTS            51  77  53  81 /  50  40  30  30
HURLEY                  59  81  60  83 /  40  30  30  20
CLIFF                   58  83  60  85 /  50  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              53  79  55  82 /  40  40  30  20
FAYWOOD                 59  83  61  85 /  40  30  30  20
ANIMAS                  63  85  64  86 /  40  30  30  20
HACHITA                 62  86  63  89 /  40  30  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  84  63  86 /  40  50  30  40
CLOVERDALE              60  80  62  82 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 GRZYWACZ



000
FXUS64 KCRP 041955
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
255 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONSENSUS THAT SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD HAVE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...WITH LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...AND NO MENTION OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH
MOISURE OVER THE NORTHEAST TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
SCATTERED...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SOME CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAY MOVE INTO
COASTAL AREAS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WARM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH MEANS A BIT WARMER
EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES STABILIZE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ABOUT
THE SAME TEMPERATURES (MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER) AS OBSERVED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BIT LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE BECOMES MORE LIMITED SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS THEN...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE
SHOWER COULD POP UP LATE. AT THIS TIME...PREFER TO HOLD OFF. WEAK
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

&&

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WITH LESS MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST AS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF RETROGRADES
BACK WEST...WITH THE COASTAL BEND FALLING UNDER THE SHEAR AXIS.
HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS(PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0) OVER THE MARINE/COASTAL
BEND/VCT CROSSROADS AS WELL.  EXPECT TO SEE DIURNAL PATTERN OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 100-102 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  94  78  94  77  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  93  76  96  75  /  10  30  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 102  79 102  78  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             75  98  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  91  80  /  20  30  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 102  77 101  76  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  76  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  91  80  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 041955
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
255 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONSENSUS THAT SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD HAVE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...WITH LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...AND NO MENTION OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH
MOISURE OVER THE NORTHEAST TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
SCATTERED...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SOME CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAY MOVE INTO
COASTAL AREAS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WARM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH MEANS A BIT WARMER
EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES STABILIZE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ABOUT
THE SAME TEMPERATURES (MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER) AS OBSERVED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BIT LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE BECOMES MORE LIMITED SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS THEN...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE
SHOWER COULD POP UP LATE. AT THIS TIME...PREFER TO HOLD OFF. WEAK
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

&&

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WITH LESS MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST AS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF RETROGRADES
BACK WEST...WITH THE COASTAL BEND FALLING UNDER THE SHEAR AXIS.
HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS(PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0) OVER THE MARINE/COASTAL
BEND/VCT CROSSROADS AS WELL.  EXPECT TO SEE DIURNAL PATTERN OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 100-102 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  94  78  94  77  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  93  76  96  75  /  10  30  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 102  79 102  78  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             75  98  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  91  80  /  20  30  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 102  77 101  76  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  76  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  91  80  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 041955
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
255 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MODELS ARE SHOWING
CONSENSUS THAT SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD HAVE WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM...WITH LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...AND NO MENTION OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER ON SATURDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH
MOISURE OVER THE NORTHEAST TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
SCATTERED...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. SOME CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAY MOVE INTO
COASTAL AREAS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WARM TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH MEANS A BIT WARMER
EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES STABILIZE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ABOUT
THE SAME TEMPERATURES (MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER) AS OBSERVED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A BIT LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE BECOMES MORE LIMITED SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS THEN...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE
SHOWER COULD POP UP LATE. AT THIS TIME...PREFER TO HOLD OFF. WEAK
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

&&

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY...WITH LESS MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING
SOUTHWEST AS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF RETROGRADES
BACK WEST...WITH THE COASTAL BEND FALLING UNDER THE SHEAR AXIS.
HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS(PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0) OVER THE MARINE/COASTAL
BEND/VCT CROSSROADS AS WELL.  EXPECT TO SEE DIURNAL PATTERN OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 100-102 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  94  78  94  77  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          76  93  76  96  75  /  10  30  10  10  10
LAREDO            80 102  79 102  78  /  10  10  10   0  10
ALICE             75  98  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  91  80  /  20  30  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 102  77 101  76  /  10  10  10   0  10
KINGSVILLE        77  97  76  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  91  80  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KEWX 041951
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
251 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WITH
PWS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HAS
ALLOWED TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER TEXAS FORCING THE SHEAR AXIS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
BRINGING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONLY NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DUE
TO LESS CLOUDINESS AND RAIN...WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER TEXAS. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRIER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DURING THE MID TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. A DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO TEXAS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH GEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ECMWF THURSDAY AND GFS FRIDAY. TO ADD A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST...THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTS IN A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  96  73  98  74 /  10  10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  99  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  97  75 /  10  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  99  77 100  78 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  75  98  76 /  10  10  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  97  74  98  74 /  10  -   -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  76  97  76 /  10  20  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  98  77 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  98  75  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 041951
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
251 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WITH
PWS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HAS
ALLOWED TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER TEXAS FORCING THE SHEAR AXIS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
BRINGING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONLY NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DUE
TO LESS CLOUDINESS AND RAIN...WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER TEXAS. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRIER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DURING THE MID TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. A DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO TEXAS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH GEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ECMWF THURSDAY AND GFS FRIDAY. TO ADD A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST...THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTS IN A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  96  73  98  74 /  10  10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  99  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  97  75 /  10  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  99  77 100  78 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  75  98  76 /  10  10  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  97  74  98  74 /  10  -   -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  76  97  76 /  10  20  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  98  77 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  98  75  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 041951
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
251 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WITH
PWS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HAS
ALLOWED TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER TEXAS FORCING THE SHEAR AXIS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
BRINGING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONLY NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DUE
TO LESS CLOUDINESS AND RAIN...WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER TEXAS. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRIER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DURING THE MID TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. A DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO TEXAS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH GEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ECMWF THURSDAY AND GFS FRIDAY. TO ADD A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST...THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTS IN A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  96  73  98  74 /  10  10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  99  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  97  75 /  10  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  99  77 100  78 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  75  98  76 /  10  10  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  97  74  98  74 /  10  -   -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  76  97  76 /  10  20  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  98  77 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  98  75  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 041951
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
251 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WITH
PWS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HAS
ALLOWED TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER TEXAS FORCING THE SHEAR AXIS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
BRINGING A DRYING OF THE AIRMASS. ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONLY NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DUE
TO LESS CLOUDINESS AND RAIN...WARMER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER TEXAS. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS DRIER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. DURING THE MID TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK...RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. A DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS A
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO TEXAS. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH GEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ECMWF THURSDAY AND GFS FRIDAY. TO ADD A
NEW WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST...THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW
DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESULTS IN A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  96  73  98  74 /  10  10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  74  99  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  97  75 /  10  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  99  77 100  78 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  75  98  76 /  10  10  -   -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  97  74  98  74 /  10  -   -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  74  98  75 /  10  10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  76  97  76 /  10  20  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  98  77 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77  98  75  99  76 /  10  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KBRO 041949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTERED OVER TEXAS REGION WITH
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE
AREA REMAIN HIGH WITH 2.12 INCHES FOR THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING
OBSERVATION THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS VALUES TO LOWER SLIGHTLY
WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE
THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OVER TEXAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLOWLY
RETREATS WEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS SLOW
RETROGRADE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ALSO BEGINS A
SLOW TRACK WEST EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST GULF
BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

CONCENTRATING ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM, GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
TIGHT CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME SPREAD DEVELOPING IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN THROUGH DAY 7 /NEXT FRIDAY/ IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THE
04/12Z GFS AND 04/002Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS MAKING THIS
A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENT FORECAST.  AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS
SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER LEAVING ONLY DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY
WEAK SEABREEZE TO SET OFF CONVECTION IF ANY AT ALL. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS REDUCED WITH MEAN RH AROUND 50 PERCENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
BUMPS THEM UP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT WED-FRI AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NC GULF BEGINS TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. INHERITED FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND BUT KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF CWA DRY. WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69C WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HUGGING THE
69E CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW LITTLE VARIATION WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTED TO TUMBLE/REMAINING
WITHIN SEASONAL TOLERANCES/ WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE. OVERALL, FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR
UPDATES.

&&

.MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING SOUTHEAST PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND PICK UP WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CHANCES OF
RAIN BECOME LIMITED INTO SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS SAT NIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 3 FEET
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.


SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT SEA. DO
NOT SEE ANY SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT BAY THROUGH
MONDAY THEN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE ADVANCING IN FROM THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  92  79  93 /  20  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  94 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            78  97  78  97 /  20  10  10   0
MCALLEN              79  99  80  99 /  20  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 100  77 101 /  10  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  87  81  89 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
HERGERT...GRAPHICS/PSU



000
FXUS64 KBRO 041949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTERED OVER TEXAS REGION WITH
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE
AREA REMAIN HIGH WITH 2.12 INCHES FOR THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING
OBSERVATION THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS VALUES TO LOWER SLIGHTLY
WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE
THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OVER TEXAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLOWLY
RETREATS WEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS SLOW
RETROGRADE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ALSO BEGINS A
SLOW TRACK WEST EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST GULF
BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

CONCENTRATING ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM, GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
TIGHT CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME SPREAD DEVELOPING IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN THROUGH DAY 7 /NEXT FRIDAY/ IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THE
04/12Z GFS AND 04/002Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS MAKING THIS
A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENT FORECAST.  AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS
SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER LEAVING ONLY DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY
WEAK SEABREEZE TO SET OFF CONVECTION IF ANY AT ALL. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS REDUCED WITH MEAN RH AROUND 50 PERCENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
BUMPS THEM UP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT WED-FRI AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NC GULF BEGINS TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. INHERITED FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND BUT KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF CWA DRY. WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69C WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HUGGING THE
69E CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW LITTLE VARIATION WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTED TO TUMBLE/REMAINING
WITHIN SEASONAL TOLERANCES/ WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE. OVERALL, FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR
UPDATES.

&&

.MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING SOUTHEAST PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND PICK UP WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CHANCES OF
RAIN BECOME LIMITED INTO SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS SAT NIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 3 FEET
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.


SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT SEA. DO
NOT SEE ANY SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT BAY THROUGH
MONDAY THEN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE ADVANCING IN FROM THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  92  79  93 /  20  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  94 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            78  97  78  97 /  20  10  10   0
MCALLEN              79  99  80  99 /  20  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 100  77 101 /  10  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  87  81  89 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
HERGERT...GRAPHICS/PSU



000
FXUS64 KBRO 041949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTERED OVER TEXAS REGION WITH
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE
AREA REMAIN HIGH WITH 2.12 INCHES FOR THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING
OBSERVATION THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS VALUES TO LOWER SLIGHTLY
WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE
THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OVER TEXAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLOWLY
RETREATS WEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS SLOW
RETROGRADE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ALSO BEGINS A
SLOW TRACK WEST EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST GULF
BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

CONCENTRATING ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM, GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
TIGHT CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME SPREAD DEVELOPING IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN THROUGH DAY 7 /NEXT FRIDAY/ IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THE
04/12Z GFS AND 04/002Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS MAKING THIS
A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENT FORECAST.  AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS
SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER LEAVING ONLY DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY
WEAK SEABREEZE TO SET OFF CONVECTION IF ANY AT ALL. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS REDUCED WITH MEAN RH AROUND 50 PERCENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
BUMPS THEM UP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT WED-FRI AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NC GULF BEGINS TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. INHERITED FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND BUT KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF CWA DRY. WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69C WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HUGGING THE
69E CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW LITTLE VARIATION WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTED TO TUMBLE/REMAINING
WITHIN SEASONAL TOLERANCES/ WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE. OVERALL, FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR
UPDATES.

&&

.MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING SOUTHEAST PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND PICK UP WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CHANCES OF
RAIN BECOME LIMITED INTO SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS SAT NIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 3 FEET
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.


SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT SEA. DO
NOT SEE ANY SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT BAY THROUGH
MONDAY THEN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE ADVANCING IN FROM THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  92  79  93 /  20  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  94 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            78  97  78  97 /  20  10  10   0
MCALLEN              79  99  80  99 /  20  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 100  77 101 /  10  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  87  81  89 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
HERGERT...GRAPHICS/PSU



000
FXUS64 KBRO 041949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVERHEAD CENTERED OVER TEXAS REGION WITH
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE WEST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH RIDGE GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE
AREA REMAIN HIGH WITH 2.12 INCHES FOR THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING
OBSERVATION THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS VALUES TO LOWER SLIGHTLY
WITH VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE
THIS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED LEANED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT WILL NOT BRING MUCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING EARLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OVER TEXAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SLOWLY
RETREATS WEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS ITS SLOW
RETROGRADE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ALSO BEGINS A
SLOW TRACK WEST EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHCENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST GULF
BY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.

CONCENTRATING ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM, GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
TIGHT CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SOME SPREAD DEVELOPING IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN THROUGH DAY 7 /NEXT FRIDAY/ IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE THE
04/12Z GFS AND 04/002Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRENDS MAKING THIS
A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENT FORECAST.  AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS
SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER LEAVING ONLY DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY
WEAK SEABREEZE TO SET OFF CONVECTION IF ANY AT ALL. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS REDUCED WITH MEAN RH AROUND 50 PERCENT. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATED POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN
BUMPS THEM UP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT WED-FRI AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NC GULF BEGINS TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. INHERITED FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND BUT KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF CWA DRY. WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM FOR MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 69C WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY HUGGING THE
69E CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW LITTLE VARIATION WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE AND DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTED TO TUMBLE/REMAINING
WITHIN SEASONAL TOLERANCES/ WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE. OVERALL, FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR
UPDATES.

&&

.MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING SOUTHEAST PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND PICK UP WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CHANCES OF
RAIN BECOME LIMITED INTO SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS SAT NIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 3 FEET
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.


SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE GULF
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT SEA. DO
NOT SEE ANY SCEC OR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT BAY THROUGH
MONDAY THEN POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE ADVANCING IN FROM THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  92  79  93 /  20  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          78  94  78  94 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            78  97  78  97 /  20  10  10   0
MCALLEN              79  99  80  99 /  20  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 100  77 101 /  10  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  87  81  89 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
HERGERT...GRAPHICS/PSU



000
FXUS64 KLUB 041930
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER RECENTLY
WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OUT NEARBY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST
OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER OVER
THE COMING DAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS ON
SATURDAY PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S /WITH A FEW UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE OUT EAST/. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE STRONG HEATING
COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CAN GENERATE ANY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN IF ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG WITH A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER /AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 40 DEGREES/ WILL ACT
TO LIMIT COVERAGE...DURATION AND AMOUNTS. GIVEN THIS...CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE CURRENT 10 PERCENT POPS LIKELY EVEN A BIT
ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FCST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IN THE NRN JET STREAM MOVE ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND NRN TIER OF THE CONUS FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIR MASS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL
PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY WHEN UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES WITH A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO HAVE
MADE SUBTLE CHANGES TO TREND OF DRIER AND WARMER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AND TEMPS DECREASE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE IN OR NEAR THE FCST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  63  93 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  92  65  93 /   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  91  66  93 /   0  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     61  92  64  93 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  93  66  94 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   60  91  65  92 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    61  92  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0
SPUR          62  94  67  96 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 041930
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER RECENTLY
WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OUT NEARBY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST
OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER OVER
THE COMING DAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS ON
SATURDAY PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S /WITH A FEW UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE OUT EAST/. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE STRONG HEATING
COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CAN GENERATE ANY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN IF ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG WITH A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER /AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 40 DEGREES/ WILL ACT
TO LIMIT COVERAGE...DURATION AND AMOUNTS. GIVEN THIS...CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE CURRENT 10 PERCENT POPS LIKELY EVEN A BIT
ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FCST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IN THE NRN JET STREAM MOVE ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND NRN TIER OF THE CONUS FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIR MASS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL
PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY WHEN UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES WITH A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO HAVE
MADE SUBTLE CHANGES TO TREND OF DRIER AND WARMER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AND TEMPS DECREASE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE IN OR NEAR THE FCST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  63  93 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  92  65  93 /   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  91  66  93 /   0  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     61  92  64  93 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  93  66  94 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   60  91  65  92 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    61  92  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0
SPUR          62  94  67  96 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 041930
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER RECENTLY
WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OUT NEARBY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST
OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER OVER
THE COMING DAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS ON
SATURDAY PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S /WITH A FEW UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE OUT EAST/. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE STRONG HEATING
COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CAN GENERATE ANY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN IF ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG WITH A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER /AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 40 DEGREES/ WILL ACT
TO LIMIT COVERAGE...DURATION AND AMOUNTS. GIVEN THIS...CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE CURRENT 10 PERCENT POPS LIKELY EVEN A BIT
ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FCST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IN THE NRN JET STREAM MOVE ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND NRN TIER OF THE CONUS FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIR MASS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL
PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY WHEN UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES WITH A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO HAVE
MADE SUBTLE CHANGES TO TREND OF DRIER AND WARMER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AND TEMPS DECREASE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE IN OR NEAR THE FCST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  63  93 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  92  65  93 /   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  91  66  93 /   0  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     61  92  64  93 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  93  66  94 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   60  91  65  92 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    61  92  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0
SPUR          62  94  67  96 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 041930
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER RECENTLY
WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OUT NEARBY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST
OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER OVER
THE COMING DAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS ON
SATURDAY PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S /WITH A FEW UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE OUT EAST/. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE STRONG HEATING
COUPLED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CAN GENERATE ANY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN IF ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG WITH A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER /AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 40 DEGREES/ WILL ACT
TO LIMIT COVERAGE...DURATION AND AMOUNTS. GIVEN THIS...CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH THE CURRENT 10 PERCENT POPS LIKELY EVEN A BIT
ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FCST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IN THE NRN JET STREAM MOVE ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND NRN TIER OF THE CONUS FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIR MASS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL
PLAINS...POSSIBLY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY WHEN UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES WITH A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO HAVE
MADE SUBTLE CHANGES TO TREND OF DRIER AND WARMER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AND TEMPS DECREASE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE IN OR NEAR THE FCST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  63  93 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  92  65  93 /   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  91  66  93 /   0  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     61  92  64  93 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  93  66  94 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   60  91  65  92 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    61  92  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0
SPUR          62  94  67  96 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  97  72  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07




000
FXUS64 KMAF 041851
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
151 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures will continue this weekend, Labor Day and
into mid next week as an upper ridge continues to plague the region.
An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will eject northeastward
into south central Canada by Sunday, but this will do little to
phase the ua ridge over Texas.  There may be a few thunderstorms
this afternoon/evening, and again Saturday, as surface dewpoints and
mid level theta e gradually increase, but the ua ridge appears to be
strong enough to prevent much convection from developing.  High
temperatures will be 5-7 degrees above normal through Labor Day, but
it does not appear we will crack record territory.

On Sunday, the upper ridge will become a little dilapidated from the
above mentioned ua trough ejecting into Canada, and will become more
southwest to northeast oriented over the region.  This will allow
mid and upper level moisture, some of which will peel away from
deteriorating Tropical Storm Kevin, to increase over western
portions of the forecast area.  Since surface dewpoints will also
rise into the mid and upper 50s throughout the higher terrain,
expect scattered thunderstorms to develop.  A surface trough will
strengthen south into the region Labor Day and nudge east, which
will allow for thunderstorm development across southeast New Mexico
and the Trans Pecos of west Texas.  Coverage may still not be that
great, but it does portend more change.  Gusty winds and heavy
rainfall will be possible with any storms that develop, but coverage
is still not expected to be more than 30 percent.

Another ua trough will follow the first over the northwestern U.S.
Tuesday, flatten the ua ridge somewhat, and aid in shunting the ua
ridge westward as the trough amplifies over the eastern ConUS late
next week.  This could possibly send a cold front into the area as
early as Thursday, with cooler conditions perhaps into next weekend.
This is still pretty far out in the extended, but will at least
carry a chance of thunderstorms, and cool temperatures off to normal
or below these days.  Stay tuned, especially since there are some
indications high temperatures could only be in the 80s Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  72  92  71  93  /   0  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                    69  95  70  95  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      74  97  74  99  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  95  72  97  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  89  67  90  /  10  30  20  30
HOBBS NM                       64  90  65  90  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       57  88  61  88  /  10  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        70  96  70  97  /   0  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                      72  95  71  95  /   0  10  10   0
WINK TX                        70  98  71  98  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/67




000
FXUS64 KMAF 041851
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
151 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Above normal temperatures will continue this weekend, Labor Day and
into mid next week as an upper ridge continues to plague the region.
An upper trough over the northwestern U.S. will eject northeastward
into south central Canada by Sunday, but this will do little to
phase the ua ridge over Texas.  There may be a few thunderstorms
this afternoon/evening, and again Saturday, as surface dewpoints and
mid level theta e gradually increase, but the ua ridge appears to be
strong enough to prevent much convection from developing.  High
temperatures will be 5-7 degrees above normal through Labor Day, but
it does not appear we will crack record territory.

On Sunday, the upper ridge will become a little dilapidated from the
above mentioned ua trough ejecting into Canada, and will become more
southwest to northeast oriented over the region.  This will allow
mid and upper level moisture, some of which will peel away from
deteriorating Tropical Storm Kevin, to increase over western
portions of the forecast area.  Since surface dewpoints will also
rise into the mid and upper 50s throughout the higher terrain,
expect scattered thunderstorms to develop.  A surface trough will
strengthen south into the region Labor Day and nudge east, which
will allow for thunderstorm development across southeast New Mexico
and the Trans Pecos of west Texas.  Coverage may still not be that
great, but it does portend more change.  Gusty winds and heavy
rainfall will be possible with any storms that develop, but coverage
is still not expected to be more than 30 percent.

Another ua trough will follow the first over the northwestern U.S.
Tuesday, flatten the ua ridge somewhat, and aid in shunting the ua
ridge westward as the trough amplifies over the eastern ConUS late
next week.  This could possibly send a cold front into the area as
early as Thursday, with cooler conditions perhaps into next weekend.
This is still pretty far out in the extended, but will at least
carry a chance of thunderstorms, and cool temperatures off to normal
or below these days.  Stay tuned, especially since there are some
indications high temperatures could only be in the 80s Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  72  92  71  93  /   0  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                    69  95  70  95  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      74  97  74  99  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  95  72  97  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  89  67  90  /  10  30  20  30
HOBBS NM                       64  90  65  90  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       57  88  61  88  /  10  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        70  96  70  97  /   0  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                      72  95  71  95  /   0  10  10   0
WINK TX                        70  98  71  98  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/67



000
FXUS64 KHGX 041809
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
109 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DUE TO THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF A HIGHLY MOIST AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION. VICINITY SHOWERS WITH A BRIEF PASSING DOWNPOUR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR DECKS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...RURAL
SITES MAY FALL INTO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BOTH IN CEILING AND IN
VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EARLY WEEKEND
WEATHER PATTERN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID TO
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS NUMEROUS AS TODAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A LONE CELL MAY
OVERCOME MID-UPPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND EVOLVE INTO A STORM CELL.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.20 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA TODAY. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE. TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS BUT
OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET. 45

&&

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE. 14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  75  97  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  94  76  96  76 /  30  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  81  91  80 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041809
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
109 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DUE TO THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF A HIGHLY MOIST AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION. VICINITY SHOWERS WITH A BRIEF PASSING DOWNPOUR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR DECKS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...RURAL
SITES MAY FALL INTO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BOTH IN CEILING AND IN
VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EARLY WEEKEND
WEATHER PATTERN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID TO
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS NUMEROUS AS TODAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A LONE CELL MAY
OVERCOME MID-UPPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND EVOLVE INTO A STORM CELL.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.20 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA TODAY. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE. TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS BUT
OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET. 45

&&

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE. 14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  75  97  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  94  76  96  76 /  30  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  81  91  80 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 041809
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
109 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DUE TO THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF A HIGHLY MOIST AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION. VICINITY SHOWERS WITH A BRIEF PASSING DOWNPOUR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR DECKS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...RURAL
SITES MAY FALL INTO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BOTH IN CEILING AND IN
VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EARLY WEEKEND
WEATHER PATTERN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID TO
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS NUMEROUS AS TODAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A LONE CELL MAY
OVERCOME MID-UPPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND EVOLVE INTO A STORM CELL.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.20 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA TODAY. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE. TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS BUT
OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET. 45

&&

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE. 14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  75  97  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  94  76  96  76 /  30  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  81  91  80 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041809
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
109 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DUE TO THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF A HIGHLY MOIST AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION. VICINITY SHOWERS WITH A BRIEF PASSING DOWNPOUR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR DECKS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...RURAL
SITES MAY FALL INTO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BOTH IN CEILING AND IN
VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EARLY WEEKEND
WEATHER PATTERN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID TO
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS NUMEROUS AS TODAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A LONE CELL MAY
OVERCOME MID-UPPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND EVOLVE INTO A STORM CELL.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.20 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA TODAY. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE. TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS BUT
OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET. 45

&&

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE. 14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  75  97  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  94  76  96  76 /  30  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  81  91  80 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KBRO 041807
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
107 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...500 MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS LIMITING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
INTO TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME...A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER VALLEY MOVING NORTH AT AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
ARE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE OVER KENEDY COUNTY AND GULF WATERS. MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING BRIEF SHOWERS
OVER THE TERMINAL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH A FEW TO
SCT MVFR CIGS NEAR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...500 MB RIDGING WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER DEEP SOUTH
TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL TRIM BACK THE CONV POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL REMAIN POOLED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS MAY DEVELOP ISOLD CONV LATER TODAY NEAR THE RGV AIRPORTS.
BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL CONV COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED TODAY
AND WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LATEST IR/WV SATL
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED
PRETTY WELL ON THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS
BROUGHT THE CONV TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SATL
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS 500 MB FEATURE
FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING 500 MB RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN ALSO AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THE CONV POTENTIAL
TO STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE
LEVELS DECREASE. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE REGION
TODAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONV
TO FIRE. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC INLAND TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE
SLGT CHC CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS ON SAT.

AS THE ATMS DRIES OUT AND STABILIZES FRI AND SAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
CREEPING BACK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 90S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS SOMEWHAT TAME. H5 RIDGING
WILL STAY ANCHORED UPSTREAM...EVEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHT OR LESS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER FROM A COUPLE OF INFLUENCES. THE FIRST WILL BE
PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL
FINALLY SUCCEED IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK. THE OTHER
INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAK H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE TWO INFLUENCES
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST AND EVEN EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR
LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THENCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH APPARENTLY LACKING ENOUGH PUNCH TO SERIOUSLY
THREATEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF...DO NOT
SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND SLIGHTLY WETTER LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME PTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...BUT MORNINGS AND LATE EVENINGS TO OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PERSIST ON INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AND FAIRLY LOW SEAS. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUSTAIN PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS AS THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.
H5 RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY NORTHERN
TRACK SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANY WEAK LEE
SIDE OR SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST TEXAS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/67



000
FXUS64 KBRO 041807
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
107 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...500 MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS LIMITING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
INTO TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME...A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER VALLEY MOVING NORTH AT AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
ARE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE OVER KENEDY COUNTY AND GULF WATERS. MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING BRIEF SHOWERS
OVER THE TERMINAL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH A FEW TO
SCT MVFR CIGS NEAR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...500 MB RIDGING WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER DEEP SOUTH
TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL TRIM BACK THE CONV POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL REMAIN POOLED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS MAY DEVELOP ISOLD CONV LATER TODAY NEAR THE RGV AIRPORTS.
BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL CONV COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED TODAY
AND WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LATEST IR/WV SATL
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED
PRETTY WELL ON THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS
BROUGHT THE CONV TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SATL
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS 500 MB FEATURE
FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING 500 MB RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN ALSO AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THE CONV POTENTIAL
TO STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE
LEVELS DECREASE. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE REGION
TODAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONV
TO FIRE. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC INLAND TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE
SLGT CHC CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS ON SAT.

AS THE ATMS DRIES OUT AND STABILIZES FRI AND SAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
CREEPING BACK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 90S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS SOMEWHAT TAME. H5 RIDGING
WILL STAY ANCHORED UPSTREAM...EVEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHT OR LESS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER FROM A COUPLE OF INFLUENCES. THE FIRST WILL BE
PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL
FINALLY SUCCEED IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK. THE OTHER
INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAK H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE TWO INFLUENCES
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST AND EVEN EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR
LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THENCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH APPARENTLY LACKING ENOUGH PUNCH TO SERIOUSLY
THREATEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF...DO NOT
SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND SLIGHTLY WETTER LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME PTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...BUT MORNINGS AND LATE EVENINGS TO OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PERSIST ON INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AND FAIRLY LOW SEAS. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUSTAIN PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS AS THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.
H5 RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY NORTHERN
TRACK SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANY WEAK LEE
SIDE OR SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST TEXAS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/67




000
FXUS64 KBRO 041807
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
107 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...500 MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS LIMITING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
INTO TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME...A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER VALLEY MOVING NORTH AT AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
ARE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE OVER KENEDY COUNTY AND GULF WATERS. MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING BRIEF SHOWERS
OVER THE TERMINAL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH A FEW TO
SCT MVFR CIGS NEAR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...500 MB RIDGING WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER DEEP SOUTH
TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL TRIM BACK THE CONV POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL REMAIN POOLED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS MAY DEVELOP ISOLD CONV LATER TODAY NEAR THE RGV AIRPORTS.
BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL CONV COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED TODAY
AND WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LATEST IR/WV SATL
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED
PRETTY WELL ON THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS
BROUGHT THE CONV TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SATL
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS 500 MB FEATURE
FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING 500 MB RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN ALSO AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THE CONV POTENTIAL
TO STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE
LEVELS DECREASE. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE REGION
TODAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONV
TO FIRE. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC INLAND TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE
SLGT CHC CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS ON SAT.

AS THE ATMS DRIES OUT AND STABILIZES FRI AND SAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
CREEPING BACK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 90S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS SOMEWHAT TAME. H5 RIDGING
WILL STAY ANCHORED UPSTREAM...EVEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHT OR LESS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER FROM A COUPLE OF INFLUENCES. THE FIRST WILL BE
PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL
FINALLY SUCCEED IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK. THE OTHER
INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAK H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE TWO INFLUENCES
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST AND EVEN EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR
LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THENCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH APPARENTLY LACKING ENOUGH PUNCH TO SERIOUSLY
THREATEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF...DO NOT
SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND SLIGHTLY WETTER LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME PTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...BUT MORNINGS AND LATE EVENINGS TO OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PERSIST ON INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AND FAIRLY LOW SEAS. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUSTAIN PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS AS THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.
H5 RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY NORTHERN
TRACK SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANY WEAK LEE
SIDE OR SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST TEXAS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/67




000
FXUS64 KCRP 041746 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE VCSH AND/OR TEMPO SHRA IN THE TERMINALS FOR ON-
GOING CONVECTION AT ALL BUT KLRD...BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR MODEL
DATA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE GONE BY 05/000Z IF NOT EARLIER.
THINK CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE SHOWERS SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER
(WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RADAR THOUGH). DID NOT INCLUDE CONVECTION AT
KLRD AS THINK MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY EAST OF TERMINAL. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...VFR THROUGH 05/10Z THEN COULD EITHER SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS AT KLRD AND VSBYS AT KALI/KVCT BETWEEN 10Z-14Z (COULD EVEN
HAVE TEMPO IFR BR AT KALI/KVCT). SHOULD BE LESS CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY BUT DID HAVE A VCSH AT KVCT WHERE MOISTURE IS BETTER AND
CONVECTION FROM GULFMEX HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF REACHING A TERMINAL
(CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR A PROB30). WINDS GENERALLY SSE AND LESS
THAN 11 KNOTS BUT COULD BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON KCRP...KALI AND
KLRD TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO CHANGE MENTION OF RAIN FROM
PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE (E.G. CHANCE TO SCATTERED). FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS. TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE. CRP SOUNDING
SHOWING PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOOKS
REASONABLE AND NO EXPECT LOWER COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
MIXING PRECLUDES DEEP CONVECTION. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT
LRD/ALI/VCT EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR LEVELS
BY 15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VCSH REMARKS AT
ALI/VCT/CRP FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SSE AND SE TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL EXIST DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TODAY WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. ISOLATED CONVECTION
HAS ALL READY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF WATERS
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 100S OUT WEST AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND FROM A DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CAP
AND MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENT MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH NOCTURNAL GULF ACTIVITY
MOVING INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST...TO NEAR 100
DEGREES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  78  94  77  95  /  30  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          92  75  94  75  96  /  40  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            99  77 102  77 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             96  75  98  75  99  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  79  91  79  91  /  40  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           99  75 101  76 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        95  77  96  76  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  80  90  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 041746 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE VCSH AND/OR TEMPO SHRA IN THE TERMINALS FOR ON-
GOING CONVECTION AT ALL BUT KLRD...BASED ON RADAR AND HRRR MODEL
DATA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE GONE BY 05/000Z IF NOT EARLIER.
THINK CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE SHOWERS SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER
(WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RADAR THOUGH). DID NOT INCLUDE CONVECTION AT
KLRD AS THINK MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY EAST OF TERMINAL. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...VFR THROUGH 05/10Z THEN COULD EITHER SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS AT KLRD AND VSBYS AT KALI/KVCT BETWEEN 10Z-14Z (COULD EVEN
HAVE TEMPO IFR BR AT KALI/KVCT). SHOULD BE LESS CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY BUT DID HAVE A VCSH AT KVCT WHERE MOISTURE IS BETTER AND
CONVECTION FROM GULFMEX HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF REACHING A TERMINAL
(CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR A PROB30). WINDS GENERALLY SSE AND LESS
THAN 11 KNOTS BUT COULD BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON KCRP...KALI AND
KLRD TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO CHANGE MENTION OF RAIN FROM
PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE (E.G. CHANCE TO SCATTERED). FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS. TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE. CRP SOUNDING
SHOWING PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOOKS
REASONABLE AND NO EXPECT LOWER COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
MIXING PRECLUDES DEEP CONVECTION. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT
LRD/ALI/VCT EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR LEVELS
BY 15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VCSH REMARKS AT
ALI/VCT/CRP FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SSE AND SE TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL EXIST DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TODAY WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. ISOLATED CONVECTION
HAS ALL READY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF WATERS
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 100S OUT WEST AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND FROM A DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CAP
AND MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENT MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH NOCTURNAL GULF ACTIVITY
MOVING INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST...TO NEAR 100
DEGREES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  78  94  77  95  /  30  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          92  75  94  75  96  /  40  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            99  77 102  77 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             96  75  98  75  99  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  79  91  79  91  /  40  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           99  75 101  76 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        95  77  96  76  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  80  90  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KSJT 041739
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1239 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
this afternoon and this evening. Low clouds with MVFR cigs made it
into the southern terminals this morning, affecting KJCT
(Junction), KSOA (Sonora), and Brady (KBBD). Models suggest more
of the same for Saturday morning. Will use the timing from earlier
today as a rough idea of the expected timing for tomorrow. A few
isolated storms expected this afternoon, but with very limited
coverage. Will not include a mention at this time, but will
monitor and update as needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

An area of low stratus is encroaching upon the I-10 terminals
early this morning. Expect a few hours of MVFR ceilings at KJCT
and KSOA, with tempo MVFR conditions possible at both KBBD and
KSJT few an hour or two. Low clouds will lift by mid-morning with
an afternoon cu field around/above 7000 ft. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly along/south
of a KSOA-KBBD line. However, limited coverage will preclude
mention in the TAF package. Expect south to southeast winds at
generally 10 kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low stratus is developing over the Hill Country and will spread
north through the early morning hours. This may result in a few
hours of overcast conditions for some areas along/south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Ceilings will erode by mid-morning with a
diurnal cu field setting up by midday. Temperatures are forecast to
be very similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 90s. While the
upper-level ridge will keep the hot and dry conditions in place
across most of the area, increasing moisture and instability will
provide an opportunity for isolated convection this afternoon,
primarily south of a Sonora to Brady line. Coverage is expected to
remain limited if this activity develops.

Diurnal clouds and (possible) convection will dissipate quickly
around sunset. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight
with temperatures falling into the low/mid 70s by daybreak Saturday.
Low clouds will be possible once again, mainly over the northwest
Hill Country.

LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday)

Shower and thunderstorms may develop toward the middle of next
week, as the the upper ridge weakens and pushes southwest into
Mexico. A weak cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night may bring
a low level focus for storm development into Thursday. The best
rain chances on Thursday will be along the I-10 corridor, as drier
air works in behind the front. Some storms may contain locally
heavy rainfall as precipitable waters rise to 1.8 to 2.0 inches.
An isolated severe storm also possible with GFS SBCAPEs up to
1500 J/KG.

Until then, the upper ridge will suppress shower and thunderstorms,
Temperatures likely rise a couple degrees Sunday and Monday as the
upper ridge temporarily expands and an 850 MB thermal ridge builds
in from west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  74  95  76 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  74  96  75 /   5   5   5   0
Junction  96  72  94  73 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KSJT 041739
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1239 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
this afternoon and this evening. Low clouds with MVFR cigs made it
into the southern terminals this morning, affecting KJCT
(Junction), KSOA (Sonora), and Brady (KBBD). Models suggest more
of the same for Saturday morning. Will use the timing from earlier
today as a rough idea of the expected timing for tomorrow. A few
isolated storms expected this afternoon, but with very limited
coverage. Will not include a mention at this time, but will
monitor and update as needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

An area of low stratus is encroaching upon the I-10 terminals
early this morning. Expect a few hours of MVFR ceilings at KJCT
and KSOA, with tempo MVFR conditions possible at both KBBD and
KSJT few an hour or two. Low clouds will lift by mid-morning with
an afternoon cu field around/above 7000 ft. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly along/south
of a KSOA-KBBD line. However, limited coverage will preclude
mention in the TAF package. Expect south to southeast winds at
generally 10 kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low stratus is developing over the Hill Country and will spread
north through the early morning hours. This may result in a few
hours of overcast conditions for some areas along/south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Ceilings will erode by mid-morning with a
diurnal cu field setting up by midday. Temperatures are forecast to
be very similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 90s. While the
upper-level ridge will keep the hot and dry conditions in place
across most of the area, increasing moisture and instability will
provide an opportunity for isolated convection this afternoon,
primarily south of a Sonora to Brady line. Coverage is expected to
remain limited if this activity develops.

Diurnal clouds and (possible) convection will dissipate quickly
around sunset. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight
with temperatures falling into the low/mid 70s by daybreak Saturday.
Low clouds will be possible once again, mainly over the northwest
Hill Country.

LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday)

Shower and thunderstorms may develop toward the middle of next
week, as the the upper ridge weakens and pushes southwest into
Mexico. A weak cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night may bring
a low level focus for storm development into Thursday. The best
rain chances on Thursday will be along the I-10 corridor, as drier
air works in behind the front. Some storms may contain locally
heavy rainfall as precipitable waters rise to 1.8 to 2.0 inches.
An isolated severe storm also possible with GFS SBCAPEs up to
1500 J/KG.

Until then, the upper ridge will suppress shower and thunderstorms,
Temperatures likely rise a couple degrees Sunday and Monday as the
upper ridge temporarily expands and an 850 MB thermal ridge builds
in from west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  74  95  76 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  74  96  75 /   5   5   5   0
Junction  96  72  94  73 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07



000
FXUS64 KSJT 041739
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1239 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
this afternoon and this evening. Low clouds with MVFR cigs made it
into the southern terminals this morning, affecting KJCT
(Junction), KSOA (Sonora), and Brady (KBBD). Models suggest more
of the same for Saturday morning. Will use the timing from earlier
today as a rough idea of the expected timing for tomorrow. A few
isolated storms expected this afternoon, but with very limited
coverage. Will not include a mention at this time, but will
monitor and update as needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

An area of low stratus is encroaching upon the I-10 terminals
early this morning. Expect a few hours of MVFR ceilings at KJCT
and KSOA, with tempo MVFR conditions possible at both KBBD and
KSJT few an hour or two. Low clouds will lift by mid-morning with
an afternoon cu field around/above 7000 ft. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly along/south
of a KSOA-KBBD line. However, limited coverage will preclude
mention in the TAF package. Expect south to southeast winds at
generally 10 kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low stratus is developing over the Hill Country and will spread
north through the early morning hours. This may result in a few
hours of overcast conditions for some areas along/south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Ceilings will erode by mid-morning with a
diurnal cu field setting up by midday. Temperatures are forecast to
be very similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 90s. While the
upper-level ridge will keep the hot and dry conditions in place
across most of the area, increasing moisture and instability will
provide an opportunity for isolated convection this afternoon,
primarily south of a Sonora to Brady line. Coverage is expected to
remain limited if this activity develops.

Diurnal clouds and (possible) convection will dissipate quickly
around sunset. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight
with temperatures falling into the low/mid 70s by daybreak Saturday.
Low clouds will be possible once again, mainly over the northwest
Hill Country.

LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday)

Shower and thunderstorms may develop toward the middle of next
week, as the the upper ridge weakens and pushes southwest into
Mexico. A weak cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night may bring
a low level focus for storm development into Thursday. The best
rain chances on Thursday will be along the I-10 corridor, as drier
air works in behind the front. Some storms may contain locally
heavy rainfall as precipitable waters rise to 1.8 to 2.0 inches.
An isolated severe storm also possible with GFS SBCAPEs up to
1500 J/KG.

Until then, the upper ridge will suppress shower and thunderstorms,
Temperatures likely rise a couple degrees Sunday and Monday as the
upper ridge temporarily expands and an 850 MB thermal ridge builds
in from west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  74  95  76 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  74  96  75 /   5   5   5   0
Junction  96  72  94  73 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07



000
FXUS64 KSJT 041739
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1239 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
this afternoon and this evening. Low clouds with MVFR cigs made it
into the southern terminals this morning, affecting KJCT
(Junction), KSOA (Sonora), and Brady (KBBD). Models suggest more
of the same for Saturday morning. Will use the timing from earlier
today as a rough idea of the expected timing for tomorrow. A few
isolated storms expected this afternoon, but with very limited
coverage. Will not include a mention at this time, but will
monitor and update as needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

An area of low stratus is encroaching upon the I-10 terminals
early this morning. Expect a few hours of MVFR ceilings at KJCT
and KSOA, with tempo MVFR conditions possible at both KBBD and
KSJT few an hour or two. Low clouds will lift by mid-morning with
an afternoon cu field around/above 7000 ft. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly along/south
of a KSOA-KBBD line. However, limited coverage will preclude
mention in the TAF package. Expect south to southeast winds at
generally 10 kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low stratus is developing over the Hill Country and will spread
north through the early morning hours. This may result in a few
hours of overcast conditions for some areas along/south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Ceilings will erode by mid-morning with a
diurnal cu field setting up by midday. Temperatures are forecast to
be very similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 90s. While the
upper-level ridge will keep the hot and dry conditions in place
across most of the area, increasing moisture and instability will
provide an opportunity for isolated convection this afternoon,
primarily south of a Sonora to Brady line. Coverage is expected to
remain limited if this activity develops.

Diurnal clouds and (possible) convection will dissipate quickly
around sunset. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight
with temperatures falling into the low/mid 70s by daybreak Saturday.
Low clouds will be possible once again, mainly over the northwest
Hill Country.

LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday)

Shower and thunderstorms may develop toward the middle of next
week, as the the upper ridge weakens and pushes southwest into
Mexico. A weak cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night may bring
a low level focus for storm development into Thursday. The best
rain chances on Thursday will be along the I-10 corridor, as drier
air works in behind the front. Some storms may contain locally
heavy rainfall as precipitable waters rise to 1.8 to 2.0 inches.
An isolated severe storm also possible with GFS SBCAPEs up to
1500 J/KG.

Until then, the upper ridge will suppress shower and thunderstorms,
Temperatures likely rise a couple degrees Sunday and Monday as the
upper ridge temporarily expands and an 850 MB thermal ridge builds
in from west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  74  95  76 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  74  96  75 /   5   5   5   0
Junction  96  72  94  73 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KFWD 041738
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS AS WELL. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL TEXAS...NEAR WACO...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE KACT TAF
AT THIS TIME.

AJS

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
SUMMER IS HERE TO STAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
SEVERAL AREAS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...REACHING
99-100 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
KILLEEN. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN DEVELOPING WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
SUPPRESSION UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WIN OUT AND
HAVE CONFINED THE MENTION TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY THE
AREA LISTED ABOVE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL MOTION UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...EVIDENT WITHIN THE PWATS...BUT OTHERWISE THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL LEAVE
CONVECTIVE WORDING OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE NEXT
WEEK DURING WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...INCLUDING TEXAS...BY THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EITHER ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTING A MODEL
CONSENSUS WILL BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS NOW BRINGING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL SINK AND IT MAY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
THAT EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH...THEREBY PREVENTING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM SPILLING DOWN THE PLAINS...BUT IT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 80S
FOR HIGHS WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BUT THESE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FURTHER REFINED.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
WACO, TX              95  75  96  75  99 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  73  94  74  95 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            95  76  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  75  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            97  79  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           93  74  95  75  97 /   5   5  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         93  75  97  76  98 /   5   5  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  73  96  73  97 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 041738
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS AS WELL. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL TEXAS...NEAR WACO...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE KACT TAF
AT THIS TIME.

AJS

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
SUMMER IS HERE TO STAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
SEVERAL AREAS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...REACHING
99-100 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
KILLEEN. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN DEVELOPING WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
SUPPRESSION UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WIN OUT AND
HAVE CONFINED THE MENTION TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY THE
AREA LISTED ABOVE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL MOTION UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...EVIDENT WITHIN THE PWATS...BUT OTHERWISE THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL LEAVE
CONVECTIVE WORDING OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE NEXT
WEEK DURING WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...INCLUDING TEXAS...BY THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EITHER ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTING A MODEL
CONSENSUS WILL BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS NOW BRINGING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL SINK AND IT MAY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
THAT EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH...THEREBY PREVENTING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM SPILLING DOWN THE PLAINS...BUT IT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 80S
FOR HIGHS WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BUT THESE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FURTHER REFINED.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
WACO, TX              95  75  96  75  99 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  73  94  74  95 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            95  76  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  75  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            97  79  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           93  74  95  75  97 /   5   5  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         93  75  97  76  98 /   5   5  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  73  96  73  97 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 041738
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS AS WELL. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL TEXAS...NEAR WACO...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE KACT TAF
AT THIS TIME.

AJS

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
SUMMER IS HERE TO STAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
SEVERAL AREAS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...REACHING
99-100 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
KILLEEN. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN DEVELOPING WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
SUPPRESSION UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WIN OUT AND
HAVE CONFINED THE MENTION TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY THE
AREA LISTED ABOVE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL MOTION UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...EVIDENT WITHIN THE PWATS...BUT OTHERWISE THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL LEAVE
CONVECTIVE WORDING OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE NEXT
WEEK DURING WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...INCLUDING TEXAS...BY THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EITHER ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTING A MODEL
CONSENSUS WILL BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS NOW BRINGING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL SINK AND IT MAY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
THAT EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH...THEREBY PREVENTING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM SPILLING DOWN THE PLAINS...BUT IT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 80S
FOR HIGHS WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BUT THESE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FURTHER REFINED.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
WACO, TX              95  75  96  75  99 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  73  94  74  95 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            95  76  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  75  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            97  79  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           93  74  95  75  97 /   5   5  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         93  75  97  76  98 /   5   5  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  73  96  73  97 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 041738
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS AS WELL. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL TEXAS...NEAR WACO...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE KACT TAF
AT THIS TIME.

AJS

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
SUMMER IS HERE TO STAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
SEVERAL AREAS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...REACHING
99-100 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
KILLEEN. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN DEVELOPING WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
SUPPRESSION UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WIN OUT AND
HAVE CONFINED THE MENTION TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY THE
AREA LISTED ABOVE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL MOTION UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...EVIDENT WITHIN THE PWATS...BUT OTHERWISE THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL LEAVE
CONVECTIVE WORDING OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE NEXT
WEEK DURING WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...INCLUDING TEXAS...BY THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EITHER ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTING A MODEL
CONSENSUS WILL BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS NOW BRINGING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL SINK AND IT MAY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
THAT EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH...THEREBY PREVENTING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM SPILLING DOWN THE PLAINS...BUT IT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 80S
FOR HIGHS WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BUT THESE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FURTHER REFINED.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
WACO, TX              95  75  96  75  99 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  73  94  74  95 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            95  76  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  75  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            97  79  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           93  74  95  75  97 /   5   5  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         93  75  97  76  98 /   5   5  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  73  96  73  97 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 041738
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS AS WELL. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL TEXAS...NEAR WACO...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE KACT TAF
AT THIS TIME.

AJS

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
SUMMER IS HERE TO STAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
SEVERAL AREAS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...REACHING
99-100 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
KILLEEN. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN DEVELOPING WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
SUPPRESSION UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WIN OUT AND
HAVE CONFINED THE MENTION TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY THE
AREA LISTED ABOVE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL MOTION UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...EVIDENT WITHIN THE PWATS...BUT OTHERWISE THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL LEAVE
CONVECTIVE WORDING OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE NEXT
WEEK DURING WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...INCLUDING TEXAS...BY THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EITHER ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTING A MODEL
CONSENSUS WILL BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS NOW BRINGING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL SINK AND IT MAY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
THAT EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH...THEREBY PREVENTING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM SPILLING DOWN THE PLAINS...BUT IT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 80S
FOR HIGHS WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BUT THESE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FURTHER REFINED.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
WACO, TX              95  75  96  75  99 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  73  94  74  95 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            95  76  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  75  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            97  79  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           93  74  95  75  97 /   5   5  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         93  75  97  76  98 /   5   5  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  73  96  73  97 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 041738
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS AS WELL. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL TEXAS...NEAR WACO...THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE KACT TAF
AT THIS TIME.

AJS

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
SUMMER IS HERE TO STAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
SEVERAL AREAS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...REACHING
99-100 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
KILLEEN. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN DEVELOPING WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
SUPPRESSION UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WIN OUT AND
HAVE CONFINED THE MENTION TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY THE
AREA LISTED ABOVE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL MOTION UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...EVIDENT WITHIN THE PWATS...BUT OTHERWISE THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL LEAVE
CONVECTIVE WORDING OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE NEXT
WEEK DURING WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...INCLUDING TEXAS...BY THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EITHER ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTING A MODEL
CONSENSUS WILL BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS NOW BRINGING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL SINK AND IT MAY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
THAT EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH...THEREBY PREVENTING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM SPILLING DOWN THE PLAINS...BUT IT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 80S
FOR HIGHS WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BUT THESE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FURTHER REFINED.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
WACO, TX              95  75  96  75  99 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  73  94  74  95 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            95  76  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  75  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            97  79  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           93  74  95  75  97 /   5   5  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         93  75  97  76  98 /   5   5  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  73  96  73  97 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KEWX 041737
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CIGS HAVE CLIMBED TO VFR IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PASS OVER ONE OF THE
AIRPORTS...BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY. OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A
REPEAT OF THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND THEN
IMPROVING LATE MORNING SATURDAY.

AT DRT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE OUT THERE SATURDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NE TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NE MEXICO.
ALSO...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS BEING DEPICTED. BOTH HIRES AND
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE MOVING TO THE WEST TODAY
WHILE MOISTURE ESCALATES. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (SOUTHEAST COUNTIES) TO ABOUT 2 INCHES. WITH THAT IN
MIND AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...EXPECT
ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTH OF A
KENEDY TO SCHULENBURG LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD GENERALLY BY
AROUND FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT CANT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE
LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO 101 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL DOMINATE
FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
FEW STORMS AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO AND WEAKENS WHILE AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECM AND GFS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...OPTED TO DO A MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF GFS VERIFIES
(WETTEST MODEL PER LATEST RUN)...SOME AREAS MAY GET SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  98  76 /  -   10   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  96  74  97  74 /  -   10   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  98  75 /  10  10   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  97  75 /  -   -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  97  77  99  78 /  -   -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  75  97  76 /  -   -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  97  74  98  74 /  20  -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  75  97  75 /  10  10   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  76  97  76 /  10  20  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  98  77 /  10  -    0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  98  75  99  76 /  10  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 041737
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CIGS HAVE CLIMBED TO VFR IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PASS OVER ONE OF THE
AIRPORTS...BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY. OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A
REPEAT OF THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND THEN
IMPROVING LATE MORNING SATURDAY.

AT DRT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE OUT THERE SATURDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NE TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NE MEXICO.
ALSO...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS BEING DEPICTED. BOTH HIRES AND
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE MOVING TO THE WEST TODAY
WHILE MOISTURE ESCALATES. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (SOUTHEAST COUNTIES) TO ABOUT 2 INCHES. WITH THAT IN
MIND AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...EXPECT
ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTH OF A
KENEDY TO SCHULENBURG LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD GENERALLY BY
AROUND FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT CANT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE
LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO 101 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL DOMINATE
FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
FEW STORMS AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO AND WEAKENS WHILE AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECM AND GFS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...OPTED TO DO A MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF GFS VERIFIES
(WETTEST MODEL PER LATEST RUN)...SOME AREAS MAY GET SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  98  76 /  -   10   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  96  74  97  74 /  -   10   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  98  75 /  10  10   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  97  75 /  -   -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  97  77  99  78 /  -   -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  75  97  76 /  -   -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  97  74  98  74 /  20  -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  75  97  75 /  10  10   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  76  97  76 /  10  20  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  98  77 /  10  -    0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  98  75  99  76 /  10  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 041737
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CIGS HAVE CLIMBED TO VFR IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PASS OVER ONE OF THE
AIRPORTS...BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY. OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A
REPEAT OF THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND THEN
IMPROVING LATE MORNING SATURDAY.

AT DRT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE OUT THERE SATURDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NE TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NE MEXICO.
ALSO...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS BEING DEPICTED. BOTH HIRES AND
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE MOVING TO THE WEST TODAY
WHILE MOISTURE ESCALATES. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (SOUTHEAST COUNTIES) TO ABOUT 2 INCHES. WITH THAT IN
MIND AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...EXPECT
ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTH OF A
KENEDY TO SCHULENBURG LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD GENERALLY BY
AROUND FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT CANT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE
LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO 101 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL DOMINATE
FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
FEW STORMS AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO AND WEAKENS WHILE AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECM AND GFS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...OPTED TO DO A MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF GFS VERIFIES
(WETTEST MODEL PER LATEST RUN)...SOME AREAS MAY GET SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  98  76 /  -   10   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  96  74  97  74 /  -   10   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  98  75 /  10  10   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  97  75 /  -   -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  97  77  99  78 /  -   -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  75  97  76 /  -   -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  97  74  98  74 /  20  -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  75  97  75 /  10  10   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  76  97  76 /  10  20  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  98  77 /  10  -    0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  98  75  99  76 /  10  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 041737
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CIGS HAVE CLIMBED TO VFR IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AND THESE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD PASS OVER ONE OF THE
AIRPORTS...BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY. OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A
REPEAT OF THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND THEN
IMPROVING LATE MORNING SATURDAY.

AT DRT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE OUT THERE SATURDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NE TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NE MEXICO.
ALSO...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS BEING DEPICTED. BOTH HIRES AND
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE MOVING TO THE WEST TODAY
WHILE MOISTURE ESCALATES. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (SOUTHEAST COUNTIES) TO ABOUT 2 INCHES. WITH THAT IN
MIND AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...EXPECT
ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTH OF A
KENEDY TO SCHULENBURG LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD GENERALLY BY
AROUND FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT CANT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE
LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO 101 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL DOMINATE
FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
FEW STORMS AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO AND WEAKENS WHILE AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECM AND GFS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...OPTED TO DO A MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF GFS VERIFIES
(WETTEST MODEL PER LATEST RUN)...SOME AREAS MAY GET SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  98  76 /  -   10   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  96  74  97  74 /  -   10   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  98  75 /  10  10   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  97  75 /  -   -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  97  77  99  78 /  -   -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  75  97  76 /  -   -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  97  74  98  74 /  20  -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  75  97  75 /  10  10   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  76  97  76 /  10  20  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  98  77 /  10  -    0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  98  75  99  76 /  10  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KLUB 041726
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  65  92 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  93  65  93 /   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  92  66  93 /   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  91  64  92 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  93  68  94 /   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   64  91  66  92 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  91  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     71  98  73  98 /   0  10   0  10
SPUR          69  95  69  96 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     72  99  72  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23



000
FXUS64 KLUB 041726
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  65  92 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  93  65  93 /   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  92  66  93 /   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  91  64  92 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  93  68  94 /   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   64  91  66  92 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  91  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     71  98  73  98 /   0  10   0  10
SPUR          69  95  69  96 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     72  99  72  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23




000
FXUS64 KMAF 041706
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1206 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with gusty winds this afternoon decreasing by
sunset.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29



000
FXUS64 KMAF 041706
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1206 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with gusty winds this afternoon decreasing by
sunset.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KMAF 041706
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1206 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with gusty winds this afternoon decreasing by
sunset.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29



000
FXUS64 KMAF 041706
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1206 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with gusty winds this afternoon decreasing by
sunset.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KAMA 041654
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1154 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
SATELLITE-DERIVED CLOUD INFORMATION INDICATES BASES AROUND 15-20 KFT.
SOME CU MAY INCREASE NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT FAR ENOUGH EAST WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS ANALYZED TO BE JUST WEST OF KDHT AND KGUY.
LATER TODAY IT SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND ONCE MIXING SUBSIDES
WINDS MAY BACK SLIGHTLY TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE GUSTS DECREASE.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY
TRY TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AIDING IN THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES BY
NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN A STRONG COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A 1015-1020 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWS FOR A MUCH COOLER
AND MORE MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S. BIGGEST CONCERN FROM ANY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
GIVEN FORECAST PWATS OF 0.75 INCH TO ONE INCH BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/3



000
FXUS64 KAMA 041654
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1154 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
SATELLITE-DERIVED CLOUD INFORMATION INDICATES BASES AROUND 15-20 KFT.
SOME CU MAY INCREASE NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT FAR ENOUGH EAST WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS ANALYZED TO BE JUST WEST OF KDHT AND KGUY.
LATER TODAY IT SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND ONCE MIXING SUBSIDES
WINDS MAY BACK SLIGHTLY TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE GUSTS DECREASE.
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY
TRY TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AIDING IN THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES BY
NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN A STRONG COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A 1015-1020 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWS FOR A MUCH COOLER
AND MORE MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S. BIGGEST CONCERN FROM ANY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
GIVEN FORECAST PWATS OF 0.75 INCH TO ONE INCH BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/3




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041517
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1017 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.20 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA TODAY. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE. TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS BUT
OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS 2 INCH PWAT AIR MOVES IN OFF THE
GULF. INCLUDING VCSH MENTION FOR ALL TAFS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
COMMENCES. ADDITIONALLY... PATCHY FOG WILL MAKE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. PATCHY FOG/MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET.
45

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  76  94  76  96 /  50  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  91  81  91 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041517
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1017 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.20 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA TODAY. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE. TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS BUT
OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS 2 INCH PWAT AIR MOVES IN OFF THE
GULF. INCLUDING VCSH MENTION FOR ALL TAFS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
COMMENCES. ADDITIONALLY... PATCHY FOG WILL MAKE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. PATCHY FOG/MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET.
45

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  76  94  76  96 /  50  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  91  81  91 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43



000
FXUS64 KHGX 041517
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1017 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.20 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA TODAY. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE. TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS BUT
OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS 2 INCH PWAT AIR MOVES IN OFF THE
GULF. INCLUDING VCSH MENTION FOR ALL TAFS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
COMMENCES. ADDITIONALLY... PATCHY FOG WILL MAKE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. PATCHY FOG/MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET.
45

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  76  94  76  96 /  50  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  91  81  91 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041517
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1017 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.20 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA TODAY. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE. TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS BUT
OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS 2 INCH PWAT AIR MOVES IN OFF THE
GULF. INCLUDING VCSH MENTION FOR ALL TAFS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
COMMENCES. ADDITIONALLY... PATCHY FOG WILL MAKE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. PATCHY FOG/MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET.
45

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  76  94  76  96 /  50  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  91  81  91 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43



000
FXUS64 KCRP 041501 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1001 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO CHANGE MENTION OF RAIN FROM
PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE (E.G. CHANCE TO SCATTERED). FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS. TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE. CRP SOUNDING
SHOWING PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOOKS
REASONABLE AND NO EXPECT LOWER COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
MIXING PRECLUDES DEEP CONVECTION. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT
LRD/ALI/VCT EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR LEVELS
BY 15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VCSH REMARKS AT
ALI/VCT/CRP FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SSE AND SE TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL EXIST DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TODAY WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. ISOLATED CONVECTION
HAS ALL READY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF WATERS
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 100S OUT WEST AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND FROM A DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CAP
AND MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENT MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH NOCTURNAL GULF ACTIVITY
MOVING INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST...TO NEAR 100
DEGREES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  78  94  77  95  /  30  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          92  75  94  75  96  /  40  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            99  77 102  77 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             96  75  98  75  99  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  79  91  79  91  /  40  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           99  75 101  76 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        95  77  96  76  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  80  90  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 041501 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1001 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO CHANGE MENTION OF RAIN FROM
PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE (E.G. CHANCE TO SCATTERED). FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS. TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE. CRP SOUNDING
SHOWING PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOOKS
REASONABLE AND NO EXPECT LOWER COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
MIXING PRECLUDES DEEP CONVECTION. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT
LRD/ALI/VCT EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR LEVELS
BY 15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VCSH REMARKS AT
ALI/VCT/CRP FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SSE AND SE TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL EXIST DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TODAY WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. ISOLATED CONVECTION
HAS ALL READY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF WATERS
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 100S OUT WEST AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND FROM A DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CAP
AND MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENT MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH NOCTURNAL GULF ACTIVITY
MOVING INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST...TO NEAR 100
DEGREES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  78  94  77  95  /  30  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          92  75  94  75  96  /  40  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            99  77 102  77 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             96  75  98  75  99  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  79  91  79  91  /  40  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           99  75 101  76 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        95  77  96  76  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  80  90  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM



000
FXUS64 KBRO 041155 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
655 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...500 MB RIDGING WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER DEEP SOUTH
TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL TRIM BACK THE CONV POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL REMAIN POOLED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS MAY DEVELOP ISOLD CONV LATER TODAY NEAR THE RGV AIRPORTS.
BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL CONV COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED TODAY
AND WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LATEST IR/WV SATL
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED
PRETTY WELL ON THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS
BROUGHT THE CONV TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SATL
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS 500 MB FEATURE
FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING 500 MB RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN ALSO AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THE CONV POTENTIAL
TO STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE
LEVELS DECREASE. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE REGION
TODAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONV
TO FIRE. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC INLAND TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE
SLGT CHC CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS ON SAT.

AS THE ATMS DRIES OUT AND STABILIZES FRI AND SAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
CREEPING BACK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 90S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS SOMEWHAT TAME. H5 RIDGING
WILL STAY ANCHORED UPSTREAM...EVEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHT OR LESS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER FROM A COUPLE OF INFLUENCES. THE FIRST WILL BE
PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL
FINALLY SUCCEED IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK. THE OTHER
INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAK H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE TWO INFLUENCES
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST AND EVEN EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR
LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THENCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH APPARENTLY LACKING ENOUGH PUNCH TO SERIOUSLY
THREATEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF...DO NOT
SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND SLIGHTLY WETTER LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME PTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...BUT MORNINGS AND LATE EVENINGS TO OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PERSIST ON INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AND FAIRLY LOW SEAS. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUSTAIN PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS AS THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.
H5 RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY NORTHERN
TRACK SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANY WEAK LEE
SIDE OR SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST TEXAS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  80  92  79 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  94  78 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            94  78  97  78 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              98  81  99  80 /  20  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  78 100  78 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  88  81 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...54
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 041155 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
655 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...500 MB RIDGING WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER DEEP SOUTH
TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL TRIM BACK THE CONV POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL REMAIN POOLED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS MAY DEVELOP ISOLD CONV LATER TODAY NEAR THE RGV AIRPORTS.
BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL CONV COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED TODAY
AND WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LATEST IR/WV SATL
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED
PRETTY WELL ON THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS
BROUGHT THE CONV TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SATL
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS 500 MB FEATURE
FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING 500 MB RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN ALSO AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THE CONV POTENTIAL
TO STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE
LEVELS DECREASE. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE REGION
TODAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONV
TO FIRE. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC INLAND TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE
SLGT CHC CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS ON SAT.

AS THE ATMS DRIES OUT AND STABILIZES FRI AND SAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
CREEPING BACK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 90S ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS SOMEWHAT TAME. H5 RIDGING
WILL STAY ANCHORED UPSTREAM...EVEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHT OR LESS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER FROM A COUPLE OF INFLUENCES. THE FIRST WILL BE
PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL
FINALLY SUCCEED IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK. THE OTHER
INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAK H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE TWO INFLUENCES
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST AND EVEN EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR
LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THENCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH APPARENTLY LACKING ENOUGH PUNCH TO SERIOUSLY
THREATEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF...DO NOT
SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND SLIGHTLY WETTER LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME PTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...BUT MORNINGS AND LATE EVENINGS TO OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PERSIST ON INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AND FAIRLY LOW SEAS. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUSTAIN PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS AS THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.
H5 RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY NORTHERN
TRACK SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANY WEAK LEE
SIDE OR SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST TEXAS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  80  92  79 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  94  78 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            94  78  97  78 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              98  81  99  80 /  20  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  78 100  78 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  88  81 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...54
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58



000
FXUS64 KFWD 041145 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS: MVFR CIGS AT WACO REGIONAL AIRPORT THROUGH MID MORNING
ALONG WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NEARBY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

AN UPPER HIGH CONTINUES OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AIRPORTS THIS
MORNING...BUT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG. A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE A FEW SHRA AND TSRA LATE THIS MORNING ALONG
THE UPPER TX COAST BEFORE MOVING WELL INLAND BY MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN AND AROUND WACO
REGIONAL AIRPORT BUT COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY MENTION
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP AT
WACO FOR MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. DFW WILL BE VFR
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MULTIPLE LEVELS.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL AIRPORTS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
SUMMER IS HERE TO STAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
SEVERAL AREAS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...REACHING
99-100 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
KILLEEN. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN DEVELOPING WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
SUPPRESSION UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WIN OUT AND
HAVE CONFINED THE MENTION TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY THE
AREA LISTED ABOVE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL MOTION UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...EVIDENT WITHIN THE PWATS...BUT OTHERWISE THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL LEAVE
CONVECTIVE WORDING OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE NEXT
WEEK DURING WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...INCLUDING TEXAS...BY THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EITHER ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTING A MODEL
CONSENSUS WILL BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS NOW BRINGING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL SINK AND IT MAY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
THAT EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH...THEREBY PREVENTING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM SPILLING DOWN THE PLAINS...BUT IT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 80S
FOR HIGHS WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BUT THESE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FURTHER REFINED.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
WACO, TX              95  75  96  75  99 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  73  94  74  95 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            95  76  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  75  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            97  79  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           93  74  95  75  97 /   5   5  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         93  75  97  76  98 /   5   5  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  73  96  73  97 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/85




000
FXUS64 KFWD 041145 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS: MVFR CIGS AT WACO REGIONAL AIRPORT THROUGH MID MORNING
ALONG WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NEARBY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

AN UPPER HIGH CONTINUES OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AIRPORTS THIS
MORNING...BUT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG. A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE A FEW SHRA AND TSRA LATE THIS MORNING ALONG
THE UPPER TX COAST BEFORE MOVING WELL INLAND BY MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN AND AROUND WACO
REGIONAL AIRPORT BUT COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY MENTION
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP AT
WACO FOR MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. DFW WILL BE VFR
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MULTIPLE LEVELS.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL AIRPORTS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
SUMMER IS HERE TO STAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
SEVERAL AREAS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...REACHING
99-100 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
KILLEEN. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN DEVELOPING WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
SUPPRESSION UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WIN OUT AND
HAVE CONFINED THE MENTION TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY THE
AREA LISTED ABOVE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL MOTION UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...EVIDENT WITHIN THE PWATS...BUT OTHERWISE THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL LEAVE
CONVECTIVE WORDING OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE NEXT
WEEK DURING WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...INCLUDING TEXAS...BY THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EITHER ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTING A MODEL
CONSENSUS WILL BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS NOW BRINGING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL SINK AND IT MAY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
THAT EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH...THEREBY PREVENTING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM SPILLING DOWN THE PLAINS...BUT IT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 80S
FOR HIGHS WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BUT THESE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FURTHER REFINED.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
WACO, TX              95  75  96  75  99 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  73  94  74  95 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            95  76  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  75  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            97  79  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           93  74  95  75  97 /   5   5  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         93  75  97  76  98 /   5   5  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  73  96  73  97 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/85



000
FXUS64 KFWD 041145 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS: MVFR CIGS AT WACO REGIONAL AIRPORT THROUGH MID MORNING
ALONG WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NEARBY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

AN UPPER HIGH CONTINUES OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AIRPORTS THIS
MORNING...BUT IS NOT OVERLY STRONG. A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE A FEW SHRA AND TSRA LATE THIS MORNING ALONG
THE UPPER TX COAST BEFORE MOVING WELL INLAND BY MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN AND AROUND WACO
REGIONAL AIRPORT BUT COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY MENTION
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP AT
WACO FOR MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. DFW WILL BE VFR
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT MULTIPLE LEVELS.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL AIRPORTS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/
SUMMER IS HERE TO STAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
SEVERAL AREAS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...REACHING
99-100 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
KILLEEN. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN DEVELOPING WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
SUPPRESSION UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WIN OUT AND
HAVE CONFINED THE MENTION TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY THE
AREA LISTED ABOVE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL MOTION UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...EVIDENT WITHIN THE PWATS...BUT OTHERWISE THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL LEAVE
CONVECTIVE WORDING OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE NEXT
WEEK DURING WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...INCLUDING TEXAS...BY THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EITHER ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTING A MODEL
CONSENSUS WILL BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS NOW BRINGING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL SINK AND IT MAY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
THAT EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH...THEREBY PREVENTING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM SPILLING DOWN THE PLAINS...BUT IT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 80S
FOR HIGHS WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BUT THESE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FURTHER REFINED.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
WACO, TX              95  75  96  75  99 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  73  94  74  95 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            95  76  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  75  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            97  79  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           93  74  95  75  97 /   5   5  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         93  75  97  76  98 /   5   5  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  73  96  73  97 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/85




000
FXUS64 KAMA 041142
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY...SUPPORTING BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CHANCES OF THESE AFFECTING ANY OF THE
TERMINALS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
HIGH-BASED CU BENEATH CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY
TRY TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AIDING IN THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES BY
NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN A STRONG COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A 1015-1020 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWS FOR A MUCH COOLER
AND MORE MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S. BIGGEST CONCERN FROM ANY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
GIVEN FORECAST PWATS OF 0.75 INCH TO ONE INCH BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/11



000
FXUS64 KAMA 041142
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY...SUPPORTING BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CHANCES OF THESE AFFECTING ANY OF THE
TERMINALS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
HIGH-BASED CU BENEATH CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY
TRY TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AIDING IN THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES BY
NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN A STRONG COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A 1015-1020 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWS FOR A MUCH COOLER
AND MORE MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S. BIGGEST CONCERN FROM ANY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
GIVEN FORECAST PWATS OF 0.75 INCH TO ONE INCH BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/11



000
FXUS64 KAMA 041142
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY...SUPPORTING BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CHANCES OF THESE AFFECTING ANY OF THE
TERMINALS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
HIGH-BASED CU BENEATH CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY
TRY TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AIDING IN THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES BY
NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN A STRONG COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A 1015-1020 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWS FOR A MUCH COOLER
AND MORE MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S. BIGGEST CONCERN FROM ANY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
GIVEN FORECAST PWATS OF 0.75 INCH TO ONE INCH BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/11



000
FXUS64 KAMA 041142
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY...SUPPORTING BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CHANCES OF THESE AFFECTING ANY OF THE
TERMINALS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
HIGH-BASED CU BENEATH CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY
TRY TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AIDING IN THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES BY
NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN A STRONG COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A 1015-1020 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWS FOR A MUCH COOLER
AND MORE MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S. BIGGEST CONCERN FROM ANY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
GIVEN FORECAST PWATS OF 0.75 INCH TO ONE INCH BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/11



000
FXUS64 KAMA 041142
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY...SUPPORTING BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CHANCES OF THESE AFFECTING ANY OF THE
TERMINALS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
HIGH-BASED CU BENEATH CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY
TRY TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AIDING IN THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES BY
NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN A STRONG COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A 1015-1020 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWS FOR A MUCH COOLER
AND MORE MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S. BIGGEST CONCERN FROM ANY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
GIVEN FORECAST PWATS OF 0.75 INCH TO ONE INCH BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/11




000
FXUS64 KAMA 041142
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY...SUPPORTING BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CHANCES OF THESE AFFECTING ANY OF THE
TERMINALS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
HIGH-BASED CU BENEATH CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY
TRY TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AIDING IN THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES BY
NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN A STRONG COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A 1015-1020 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWS FOR A MUCH COOLER
AND MORE MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S. BIGGEST CONCERN FROM ANY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
GIVEN FORECAST PWATS OF 0.75 INCH TO ONE INCH BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/11



000
FXUS64 KCRP 041141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT
LRD/ALI/VCT EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR LEVELS
BY 15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VCSH REMARKS AT
ALI/VCT/CRP FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SSE AND SE TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL EXIST DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TODAY WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. ISOLATED CONVECTION
HAS ALL READY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF WATERS
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 100S OUT WEST AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND FROM A DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CAP
AND MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENT MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH NOCTURNAL GULF ACTIVITY
MOVING INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST...TO NEAR 100
DEGREES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  78  94  77  95  /  30  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          92  75  94  75  96  /  30  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            99  77 102  77 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             96  75  98  75  99  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  79  91  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           99  75 101  76 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        95  77  96  76  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  80  90  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 041141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT
LRD/ALI/VCT EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR LEVELS
BY 15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VCSH REMARKS AT
ALI/VCT/CRP FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SSE AND SE TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL EXIST DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TODAY WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. ISOLATED CONVECTION
HAS ALL READY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF WATERS
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 100S OUT WEST AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND FROM A DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CAP
AND MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENT MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH NOCTURNAL GULF ACTIVITY
MOVING INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST...TO NEAR 100
DEGREES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  78  94  77  95  /  30  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          92  75  94  75  96  /  30  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            99  77 102  77 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             96  75  98  75  99  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  79  91  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           99  75 101  76 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        95  77  96  76  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  80  90  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 041141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT
LRD/ALI/VCT EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR LEVELS
BY 15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VCSH REMARKS AT
ALI/VCT/CRP FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SSE AND SE TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL EXIST DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TODAY WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. ISOLATED CONVECTION
HAS ALL READY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF WATERS
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 100S OUT WEST AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND FROM A DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CAP
AND MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENT MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH NOCTURNAL GULF ACTIVITY
MOVING INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST...TO NEAR 100
DEGREES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  78  94  77  95  /  30  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          92  75  94  75  96  /  30  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            99  77 102  77 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             96  75  98  75  99  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  79  91  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           99  75 101  76 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        95  77  96  76  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  80  90  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 041141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT
LRD/ALI/VCT EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR LEVELS
BY 15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VCSH REMARKS AT
ALI/VCT/CRP FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SSE AND SE TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL EXIST DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TODAY WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. ISOLATED CONVECTION
HAS ALL READY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF WATERS
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 100S OUT WEST AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND FROM A DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CAP
AND MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENT MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH NOCTURNAL GULF ACTIVITY
MOVING INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST...TO NEAR 100
DEGREES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  78  94  77  95  /  30  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          92  75  94  75  96  /  30  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            99  77 102  77 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             96  75  98  75  99  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  79  91  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           99  75 101  76 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        95  77  96  76  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  80  90  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 041141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT
LRD/ALI/VCT EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR LEVELS
BY 15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VCSH REMARKS AT
ALI/VCT/CRP FOR NOW. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SSE AND SE TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL EXIST DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TODAY WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. ISOLATED CONVECTION
HAS ALL READY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF WATERS
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 100S OUT WEST AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND FROM A DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CAP
AND MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENT MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH NOCTURNAL GULF ACTIVITY
MOVING INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST...TO NEAR 100
DEGREES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  78  94  77  95  /  30  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          92  75  94  75  96  /  30  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            99  77 102  77 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             96  75  98  75  99  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  79  91  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           99  75 101  76 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        95  77  96  76  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  80  90  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KHGX 041136
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS 2 INCH PWAT AIR MOVES IN OFF THE
GULF. INCLUDING VCSH MENTION FOR ALL TAFS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
COMMENCES. ADDITIONALLY... PATCHY FOG WILL MAKE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. PATCHY FOG/MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET.
45

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  76  94  76  96 /  30  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  91  81  91 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14



000
FXUS64 KHGX 041136
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS 2 INCH PWAT AIR MOVES IN OFF THE
GULF. INCLUDING VCSH MENTION FOR ALL TAFS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
COMMENCES. ADDITIONALLY... PATCHY FOG WILL MAKE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. PATCHY FOG/MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET.
45

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  76  94  76  96 /  30  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  91  81  91 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14



000
FXUS64 KHGX 041136
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS 2 INCH PWAT AIR MOVES IN OFF THE
GULF. INCLUDING VCSH MENTION FOR ALL TAFS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
COMMENCES. ADDITIONALLY... PATCHY FOG WILL MAKE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. PATCHY FOG/MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET.
45

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  76  94  76  96 /  30  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  91  81  91 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14



000
FXUS64 KHGX 041136
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
636 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS 2 INCH PWAT AIR MOVES IN OFF THE
GULF. INCLUDING VCSH MENTION FOR ALL TAFS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
COMMENCES. ADDITIONALLY... PATCHY FOG WILL MAKE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE
HOUSTON/GALVESTON TERMINALS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. PATCHY FOG/MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET.
45

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  76  94  76  96 /  30  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  91  81  91 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14



000
FXUS64 KSJT 041131
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

An area of low stratus is encroaching upon the I-10 terminals
early this morning. Expect a few hours of MVFR ceilings at KJCT
and KSOA, with tempo MVFR conditions possible at both KBBD and
KSJT few an hour or two. Low clouds will lift by mid-morning with
an afternoon cu field around/above 7000 ft. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly along/south
of a KSOA-KBBD line. However, limited coverage will preclude
mention in the TAF package. Expect south to southeast winds at
generally 10 kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low stratus is developing over the Hill Country and will spread
north through the early morning hours. This may result in a few
hours of overcast conditions for some areas along/south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Ceilings will erode by mid-morning with a
diurnal cu field setting up by midday. Temperatures are forecast to
be very similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 90s. While the
upper-level ridge will keep the hot and dry conditions in place
across most of the area, increasing moisture and instability will
provide an opportunity for isolated convection this afternoon,
primarily south of a Sonora to Brady line. Coverage is expected to
remain limited if this activity develops.

Diurnal clouds and (possible) convection will dissipate quickly
around sunset. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight
with temperatures falling into the low/mid 70s by daybreak Saturday.
Low clouds will be possible once again, mainly over the northwest
Hill Country.

LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday)

Shower and thunderstorms may develop toward the middle of next
week, as the the upper ridge weakens and pushes southwest into
Mexico. A weak cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night may bring
a low level focus for storm development into Thursday. The best
rain chances on Thursday will be along the I-10 corridor, as drier
air works in behind the front. Some storms may contain locally
heavy rainfall as precipitable waters rise to 1.8 to 2.0 inches.
An isolated severe storm also possible with GFS SBCAPEs up to
1500 J/KG.

Until then, the upper ridge will suppress shower and thunderstorms,
Temperatures likely rise a couple degrees Sunday and Monday as the
upper ridge temporarily expands and an 850 MB thermal ridge builds
in from west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  74  95  76 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  74  96  75 /   5   5   5   0
Junction  96  72  94  73 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson



000
FXUS64 KSJT 041131
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

An area of low stratus is encroaching upon the I-10 terminals
early this morning. Expect a few hours of MVFR ceilings at KJCT
and KSOA, with tempo MVFR conditions possible at both KBBD and
KSJT few an hour or two. Low clouds will lift by mid-morning with
an afternoon cu field around/above 7000 ft. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly along/south
of a KSOA-KBBD line. However, limited coverage will preclude
mention in the TAF package. Expect south to southeast winds at
generally 10 kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low stratus is developing over the Hill Country and will spread
north through the early morning hours. This may result in a few
hours of overcast conditions for some areas along/south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Ceilings will erode by mid-morning with a
diurnal cu field setting up by midday. Temperatures are forecast to
be very similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 90s. While the
upper-level ridge will keep the hot and dry conditions in place
across most of the area, increasing moisture and instability will
provide an opportunity for isolated convection this afternoon,
primarily south of a Sonora to Brady line. Coverage is expected to
remain limited if this activity develops.

Diurnal clouds and (possible) convection will dissipate quickly
around sunset. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight
with temperatures falling into the low/mid 70s by daybreak Saturday.
Low clouds will be possible once again, mainly over the northwest
Hill Country.

LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday)

Shower and thunderstorms may develop toward the middle of next
week, as the the upper ridge weakens and pushes southwest into
Mexico. A weak cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night may bring
a low level focus for storm development into Thursday. The best
rain chances on Thursday will be along the I-10 corridor, as drier
air works in behind the front. Some storms may contain locally
heavy rainfall as precipitable waters rise to 1.8 to 2.0 inches.
An isolated severe storm also possible with GFS SBCAPEs up to
1500 J/KG.

Until then, the upper ridge will suppress shower and thunderstorms,
Temperatures likely rise a couple degrees Sunday and Monday as the
upper ridge temporarily expands and an 850 MB thermal ridge builds
in from west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  74  95  76 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  74  96  75 /   5   5   5   0
Junction  96  72  94  73 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson



000
FXUS64 KSJT 041131
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

An area of low stratus is encroaching upon the I-10 terminals
early this morning. Expect a few hours of MVFR ceilings at KJCT
and KSOA, with tempo MVFR conditions possible at both KBBD and
KSJT few an hour or two. Low clouds will lift by mid-morning with
an afternoon cu field around/above 7000 ft. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly along/south
of a KSOA-KBBD line. However, limited coverage will preclude
mention in the TAF package. Expect south to southeast winds at
generally 10 kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low stratus is developing over the Hill Country and will spread
north through the early morning hours. This may result in a few
hours of overcast conditions for some areas along/south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Ceilings will erode by mid-morning with a
diurnal cu field setting up by midday. Temperatures are forecast to
be very similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 90s. While the
upper-level ridge will keep the hot and dry conditions in place
across most of the area, increasing moisture and instability will
provide an opportunity for isolated convection this afternoon,
primarily south of a Sonora to Brady line. Coverage is expected to
remain limited if this activity develops.

Diurnal clouds and (possible) convection will dissipate quickly
around sunset. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight
with temperatures falling into the low/mid 70s by daybreak Saturday.
Low clouds will be possible once again, mainly over the northwest
Hill Country.

LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday)

Shower and thunderstorms may develop toward the middle of next
week, as the the upper ridge weakens and pushes southwest into
Mexico. A weak cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night may bring
a low level focus for storm development into Thursday. The best
rain chances on Thursday will be along the I-10 corridor, as drier
air works in behind the front. Some storms may contain locally
heavy rainfall as precipitable waters rise to 1.8 to 2.0 inches.
An isolated severe storm also possible with GFS SBCAPEs up to
1500 J/KG.

Until then, the upper ridge will suppress shower and thunderstorms,
Temperatures likely rise a couple degrees Sunday and Monday as the
upper ridge temporarily expands and an 850 MB thermal ridge builds
in from west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  74  95  76 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  74  96  75 /   5   5   5   0
Junction  96  72  94  73 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson



000
FXUS64 KSJT 041131
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

An area of low stratus is encroaching upon the I-10 terminals
early this morning. Expect a few hours of MVFR ceilings at KJCT
and KSOA, with tempo MVFR conditions possible at both KBBD and
KSJT few an hour or two. Low clouds will lift by mid-morning with
an afternoon cu field around/above 7000 ft. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly along/south
of a KSOA-KBBD line. However, limited coverage will preclude
mention in the TAF package. Expect south to southeast winds at
generally 10 kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low stratus is developing over the Hill Country and will spread
north through the early morning hours. This may result in a few
hours of overcast conditions for some areas along/south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Ceilings will erode by mid-morning with a
diurnal cu field setting up by midday. Temperatures are forecast to
be very similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 90s. While the
upper-level ridge will keep the hot and dry conditions in place
across most of the area, increasing moisture and instability will
provide an opportunity for isolated convection this afternoon,
primarily south of a Sonora to Brady line. Coverage is expected to
remain limited if this activity develops.

Diurnal clouds and (possible) convection will dissipate quickly
around sunset. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight
with temperatures falling into the low/mid 70s by daybreak Saturday.
Low clouds will be possible once again, mainly over the northwest
Hill Country.

LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday)

Shower and thunderstorms may develop toward the middle of next
week, as the the upper ridge weakens and pushes southwest into
Mexico. A weak cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night may bring
a low level focus for storm development into Thursday. The best
rain chances on Thursday will be along the I-10 corridor, as drier
air works in behind the front. Some storms may contain locally
heavy rainfall as precipitable waters rise to 1.8 to 2.0 inches.
An isolated severe storm also possible with GFS SBCAPEs up to
1500 J/KG.

Until then, the upper ridge will suppress shower and thunderstorms,
Temperatures likely rise a couple degrees Sunday and Monday as the
upper ridge temporarily expands and an 850 MB thermal ridge builds
in from west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  74  95  76 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  74  96  75 /   5   5   5   0
Junction  96  72  94  73 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson



000
FXUS64 KSJT 041131
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

An area of low stratus is encroaching upon the I-10 terminals
early this morning. Expect a few hours of MVFR ceilings at KJCT
and KSOA, with tempo MVFR conditions possible at both KBBD and
KSJT few an hour or two. Low clouds will lift by mid-morning with
an afternoon cu field around/above 7000 ft. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly along/south
of a KSOA-KBBD line. However, limited coverage will preclude
mention in the TAF package. Expect south to southeast winds at
generally 10 kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low stratus is developing over the Hill Country and will spread
north through the early morning hours. This may result in a few
hours of overcast conditions for some areas along/south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Ceilings will erode by mid-morning with a
diurnal cu field setting up by midday. Temperatures are forecast to
be very similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 90s. While the
upper-level ridge will keep the hot and dry conditions in place
across most of the area, increasing moisture and instability will
provide an opportunity for isolated convection this afternoon,
primarily south of a Sonora to Brady line. Coverage is expected to
remain limited if this activity develops.

Diurnal clouds and (possible) convection will dissipate quickly
around sunset. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight
with temperatures falling into the low/mid 70s by daybreak Saturday.
Low clouds will be possible once again, mainly over the northwest
Hill Country.

LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday)

Shower and thunderstorms may develop toward the middle of next
week, as the the upper ridge weakens and pushes southwest into
Mexico. A weak cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night may bring
a low level focus for storm development into Thursday. The best
rain chances on Thursday will be along the I-10 corridor, as drier
air works in behind the front. Some storms may contain locally
heavy rainfall as precipitable waters rise to 1.8 to 2.0 inches.
An isolated severe storm also possible with GFS SBCAPEs up to
1500 J/KG.

Until then, the upper ridge will suppress shower and thunderstorms,
Temperatures likely rise a couple degrees Sunday and Monday as the
upper ridge temporarily expands and an 850 MB thermal ridge builds
in from west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  74  95  76 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  74  96  75 /   5   5   5   0
Junction  96  72  94  73 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson



000
FXUS64 KSJT 041131
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

An area of low stratus is encroaching upon the I-10 terminals
early this morning. Expect a few hours of MVFR ceilings at KJCT
and KSOA, with tempo MVFR conditions possible at both KBBD and
KSJT few an hour or two. Low clouds will lift by mid-morning with
an afternoon cu field around/above 7000 ft. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly along/south
of a KSOA-KBBD line. However, limited coverage will preclude
mention in the TAF package. Expect south to southeast winds at
generally 10 kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low stratus is developing over the Hill Country and will spread
north through the early morning hours. This may result in a few
hours of overcast conditions for some areas along/south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Ceilings will erode by mid-morning with a
diurnal cu field setting up by midday. Temperatures are forecast to
be very similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 90s. While the
upper-level ridge will keep the hot and dry conditions in place
across most of the area, increasing moisture and instability will
provide an opportunity for isolated convection this afternoon,
primarily south of a Sonora to Brady line. Coverage is expected to
remain limited if this activity develops.

Diurnal clouds and (possible) convection will dissipate quickly
around sunset. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight
with temperatures falling into the low/mid 70s by daybreak Saturday.
Low clouds will be possible once again, mainly over the northwest
Hill Country.

LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday)

Shower and thunderstorms may develop toward the middle of next
week, as the the upper ridge weakens and pushes southwest into
Mexico. A weak cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night may bring
a low level focus for storm development into Thursday. The best
rain chances on Thursday will be along the I-10 corridor, as drier
air works in behind the front. Some storms may contain locally
heavy rainfall as precipitable waters rise to 1.8 to 2.0 inches.
An isolated severe storm also possible with GFS SBCAPEs up to
1500 J/KG.

Until then, the upper ridge will suppress shower and thunderstorms,
Temperatures likely rise a couple degrees Sunday and Monday as the
upper ridge temporarily expands and an 850 MB thermal ridge builds
in from west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  74  95  76 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  74  96  75 /   5   5   5   0
Junction  96  72  94  73 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson



000
FXUS64 KSJT 041131
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

An area of low stratus is encroaching upon the I-10 terminals
early this morning. Expect a few hours of MVFR ceilings at KJCT
and KSOA, with tempo MVFR conditions possible at both KBBD and
KSJT few an hour or two. Low clouds will lift by mid-morning with
an afternoon cu field around/above 7000 ft. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly along/south
of a KSOA-KBBD line. However, limited coverage will preclude
mention in the TAF package. Expect south to southeast winds at
generally 10 kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low stratus is developing over the Hill Country and will spread
north through the early morning hours. This may result in a few
hours of overcast conditions for some areas along/south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Ceilings will erode by mid-morning with a
diurnal cu field setting up by midday. Temperatures are forecast to
be very similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 90s. While the
upper-level ridge will keep the hot and dry conditions in place
across most of the area, increasing moisture and instability will
provide an opportunity for isolated convection this afternoon,
primarily south of a Sonora to Brady line. Coverage is expected to
remain limited if this activity develops.

Diurnal clouds and (possible) convection will dissipate quickly
around sunset. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight
with temperatures falling into the low/mid 70s by daybreak Saturday.
Low clouds will be possible once again, mainly over the northwest
Hill Country.

LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday)

Shower and thunderstorms may develop toward the middle of next
week, as the the upper ridge weakens and pushes southwest into
Mexico. A weak cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night may bring
a low level focus for storm development into Thursday. The best
rain chances on Thursday will be along the I-10 corridor, as drier
air works in behind the front. Some storms may contain locally
heavy rainfall as precipitable waters rise to 1.8 to 2.0 inches.
An isolated severe storm also possible with GFS SBCAPEs up to
1500 J/KG.

Until then, the upper ridge will suppress shower and thunderstorms,
Temperatures likely rise a couple degrees Sunday and Monday as the
upper ridge temporarily expands and an 850 MB thermal ridge builds
in from west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  74  95  76 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  74  96  75 /   5   5   5   0
Junction  96  72  94  73 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson



000
FXUS64 KSJT 041131
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
631 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

An area of low stratus is encroaching upon the I-10 terminals
early this morning. Expect a few hours of MVFR ceilings at KJCT
and KSOA, with tempo MVFR conditions possible at both KBBD and
KSJT few an hour or two. Low clouds will lift by mid-morning with
an afternoon cu field around/above 7000 ft. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly along/south
of a KSOA-KBBD line. However, limited coverage will preclude
mention in the TAF package. Expect south to southeast winds at
generally 10 kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low stratus is developing over the Hill Country and will spread
north through the early morning hours. This may result in a few
hours of overcast conditions for some areas along/south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Ceilings will erode by mid-morning with a
diurnal cu field setting up by midday. Temperatures are forecast to
be very similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 90s. While the
upper-level ridge will keep the hot and dry conditions in place
across most of the area, increasing moisture and instability will
provide an opportunity for isolated convection this afternoon,
primarily south of a Sonora to Brady line. Coverage is expected to
remain limited if this activity develops.

Diurnal clouds and (possible) convection will dissipate quickly
around sunset. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight
with temperatures falling into the low/mid 70s by daybreak Saturday.
Low clouds will be possible once again, mainly over the northwest
Hill Country.

LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday)

Shower and thunderstorms may develop toward the middle of next
week, as the the upper ridge weakens and pushes southwest into
Mexico. A weak cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night may bring
a low level focus for storm development into Thursday. The best
rain chances on Thursday will be along the I-10 corridor, as drier
air works in behind the front. Some storms may contain locally
heavy rainfall as precipitable waters rise to 1.8 to 2.0 inches.
An isolated severe storm also possible with GFS SBCAPEs up to
1500 J/KG.

Until then, the upper ridge will suppress shower and thunderstorms,
Temperatures likely rise a couple degrees Sunday and Monday as the
upper ridge temporarily expands and an 850 MB thermal ridge builds
in from west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  74  95  76 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  74  96  75 /   5   5   5   0
Junction  96  72  94  73 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson



000
FXUS64 KEWX 041130
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR ARE OVERSPREADING THE AREA AT THE
PRESENT TIME. WILL PREVAIL MVFR CEILINGS AND MENTION A TEMPO FOR
IFR THROUGH 15Z FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY 16-17Z ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SSE AROUND
10 KNOTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS PROBABLE TOMORROW
MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NE TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NE MEXICO.
ALSO...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS BEING DEPICTED. BOTH HIRES AND
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE MOVING TO THE WEST TODAY
WHILE MOISTURE ESCALATES. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (SOUTHEAST COUNTIES) TO ABOUT 2 INCHES. WITH THAT IN
MIND AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...EXPECT
ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTH OF A
KENEDY TO SCHULENBURG LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD GENERALLY BY
AROUND FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT CANT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE
LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO 101 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL DOMINATE
FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
FEW STORMS AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO AND WEAKENS WHILE AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECM AND GFS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...OPTED TO DO A MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF GFS VERIFIES
(WETTEST MODEL PER LATEST RUN)...SOME AREAS MAY GET SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              95  76  97  76  98 /  10  -   10   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  74  96  74  97 /  20  -   10   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  75  97  75  98 /  20  10  10   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  74  95  74  97 /  10  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  77  97  77  99 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  75  96  75  97 /  10  -   -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  75  97  74  98 /  20  20  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   93  76  96  76  97 /  20  10  20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  77  97  76  98 /  20  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  76  98  75  99 /  20  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KEWX 041130
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WITH POCKETS OF IFR ARE OVERSPREADING THE AREA AT THE
PRESENT TIME. WILL PREVAIL MVFR CEILINGS AND MENTION A TEMPO FOR
IFR THROUGH 15Z FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY 16-17Z ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SSE AROUND
10 KNOTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS PROBABLE TOMORROW
MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NE TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NE MEXICO.
ALSO...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS BEING DEPICTED. BOTH HIRES AND
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE MOVING TO THE WEST TODAY
WHILE MOISTURE ESCALATES. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (SOUTHEAST COUNTIES) TO ABOUT 2 INCHES. WITH THAT IN
MIND AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...EXPECT
ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTH OF A
KENEDY TO SCHULENBURG LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD GENERALLY BY
AROUND FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT CANT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE
LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO 101 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL DOMINATE
FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
FEW STORMS AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO AND WEAKENS WHILE AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECM AND GFS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...OPTED TO DO A MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF GFS VERIFIES
(WETTEST MODEL PER LATEST RUN)...SOME AREAS MAY GET SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              95  76  97  76  98 /  10  -   10   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  74  96  74  97 /  20  -   10   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  75  97  75  98 /  20  10  10   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  74  95  74  97 /  10  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  77  97  77  99 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  75  96  75  97 /  10  -   -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  75  97  74  98 /  20  20  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   93  76  96  76  97 /  20  10  20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  77  97  76  98 /  20  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  76  98  75  99 /  20  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17



000
FXUS64 KMAF 041127
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge will remain over the region even though an upper
trough digs across the NW part of the country the next few days. The
best it will be able to do is flatten out the top of the ridge as it
moves east.  Therefore not looking for much change in the wx out
through the middle of next week.

Still getting lots of high clouds streaming over the area as Pacific
moisture gets pulled around the west side of the ridge... helping
morning lows to be slow to cool.  Unseasonably warm temperatures
will continue with highs in the mid to upper 90s with a few
locations along the Rio Grande still hitting highs of 100 or more.
A cold front is still on track for next Thursday will result in
at least a couple days of cooler temps.

Did have a few light showers/storms over the far western edge of the
area yesterday... could see these again the next few days favoring
the higher elevations.  Best chance of rain for the plains will be
along/behind the front late next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72



000
FXUS64 KMAF 041127
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge will remain over the region even though an upper
trough digs across the NW part of the country the next few days. The
best it will be able to do is flatten out the top of the ridge as it
moves east.  Therefore not looking for much change in the wx out
through the middle of next week.

Still getting lots of high clouds streaming over the area as Pacific
moisture gets pulled around the west side of the ridge... helping
morning lows to be slow to cool.  Unseasonably warm temperatures
will continue with highs in the mid to upper 90s with a few
locations along the Rio Grande still hitting highs of 100 or more.
A cold front is still on track for next Thursday will result in
at least a couple days of cooler temps.

Did have a few light showers/storms over the far western edge of the
area yesterday... could see these again the next few days favoring
the higher elevations.  Best chance of rain for the plains will be
along/behind the front late next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72




000
FXUS64 KLUB 041122
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  91  65 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         92  64  93  65 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  64  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  64  91  64 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   93  64  91  66 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  71  98  73 /   0   0  10   0
SPUR          97  69  95  69 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     98  72  99  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

74/26/74



000
FXUS64 KLUB 041122
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  91  65 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         92  64  93  65 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  64  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  64  91  64 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   93  64  91  66 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  71  98  73 /   0   0  10   0
SPUR          97  69  95  69 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     98  72  99  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

74/26/74




000
FXUS64 KLUB 041122
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  91  65 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         92  64  93  65 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  64  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  64  91  64 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   93  64  91  66 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  71  98  73 /   0   0  10   0
SPUR          97  69  95  69 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     98  72  99  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

74/26/74



000
FXUS64 KLUB 041122
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  91  65 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         92  64  93  65 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  64  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  64  91  64 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   93  64  91  66 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  71  98  73 /   0   0  10   0
SPUR          97  69  95  69 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     98  72  99  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

74/26/74




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 041011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF
THE RIVER. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH MIGHT COOL OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER WATER EVERYWHERE...BUT JUST NOT MUCH RAIN. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT WITHOUT A SOLID TRIGGER IT CAN BE DIFFICULT TO FIRE OFF
A THUNDERSTORM. TO GET THUNDERSTORMS YOU NEED THREE
THINGS...MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY. WE HAVE THE MOISTURE AND
THE LIFT IS PROVIDED BY THE HEATING FROM THE SUN AND THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WE DON`T HAVE MUCH INSTABILITY. WITHOUT SOME WEAK
TROUGH OR COLDER AIR ALOFT WE WON`T BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE MUCH SO IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET THUNDERSTORMS
GOING...LIKE YESTERDAY. I DIDN`T TINKER TO MUCH WITH OUR POPS BUT
I`M NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN
TODAY. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THE SCATTERED POPS WEST OF THE RIVER
AND GIVEN EAST LOCATIONS ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO OUR EAST WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN END UP SOUTH OF
THE BORDER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THAT IS NOT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
US TO GET THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE RIDGE LOOK PRETTY DIRTY (FILLED
WITH MOISTURE) SO IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GFS CRANKS UP THE POPS WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF
IS LESS EXCITED ABOUT THE RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
FOR NOW I`LL STAY IN THE MIDDLE AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS BRING.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE
TODAY WE SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EL PASO HAS HAD A
RECORD LONG STREAK OF 100 DAYS IN A ROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. THAT STREAK MAY COME TO AN END TODAY. IT WILL
BE CLOSE IF WE CAN GET ANY KIND OF SUNSHINE I THINK WE SHOULD JUST
HIT 90...BUT IF THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND TOO MUCH UPPER 80`S WILL BE
THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR. IF WE CAN GET BY TODAY THE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD KEEP THE STREAK AT EL PASO GOING
A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z
WE WILL SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS
IN THE AREA...BUT WE ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY TRIGGERING OFF
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE
CASE AGAIN TODAY. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE RIVER. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM STORMS WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 34008KT AND CLOUDS OF SCT-BKN120.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BUT WE ARE HAVING A LITTLE CHALLENGE
IN GETTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND
THAT WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
WE WON`T SEE REAL GREAT CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY BUT WE WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUR WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND MIN RH`S WILL BE 20% OR HIGHER ALL
WEEK. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 89  68  92  70 /  10  20  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           90  64  92  68 /  10  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              84  62  88  65 /  20  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              88  64  90  66 /  20  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              66  48  69  50 /  40  40  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   81  61  85  64 /  40  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             73  55  77  58 /  60  50  40  30
DEMING                  84  60  87  63 /  50  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               80  59  85  63 /  50  40  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      90  68  93  71 /  10  20  30  30
DELL CITY               93  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            92  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              86  64  88  67 /  10  20  30  30
FABENS                  91  65  94  68 /  10  20  30  30
SANTA TERESA            87  65  91  68 /  20  20  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          86  64  89  67 /  20  20  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           85  63  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
HATCH                   85  60  88  64 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                85  62  89  64 /  40  40  30  30
OROGRANDE               87  66  91  68 /  10  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 75  54  76  56 /  40  30  60  40
MESCALERO               76  52  79  54 /  40  40  50  40
TIMBERON                74  55  77  57 /  30  30  50  40
WINSTON                 71  52  75  55 /  50  50  50  30
HILLSBORO               80  57  84  60 /  50  40  30  30
SPACEPORT               83  61  87  64 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            72  48  76  51 /  60  50  50  30
HURLEY                  77  56  80  59 /  50  40  40  30
CLIFF                   77  55  82  58 /  60  50  40  30
MULE CREEK              73  51  78  53 /  60  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 78  56  82  59 /  50  40  30  30
ANIMAS                  80  60  84  62 /  50  40  40  30
HACHITA                 82  59  86  61 /  50  40  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  58  84  61 /  50  40  50  30
CLOVERDALE              75  57  79  60 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 041011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF
THE RIVER. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH MIGHT COOL OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER WATER EVERYWHERE...BUT JUST NOT MUCH RAIN. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT WITHOUT A SOLID TRIGGER IT CAN BE DIFFICULT TO FIRE OFF
A THUNDERSTORM. TO GET THUNDERSTORMS YOU NEED THREE
THINGS...MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY. WE HAVE THE MOISTURE AND
THE LIFT IS PROVIDED BY THE HEATING FROM THE SUN AND THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WE DON`T HAVE MUCH INSTABILITY. WITHOUT SOME WEAK
TROUGH OR COLDER AIR ALOFT WE WON`T BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE MUCH SO IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET THUNDERSTORMS
GOING...LIKE YESTERDAY. I DIDN`T TINKER TO MUCH WITH OUR POPS BUT
I`M NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN
TODAY. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THE SCATTERED POPS WEST OF THE RIVER
AND GIVEN EAST LOCATIONS ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO OUR EAST WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN END UP SOUTH OF
THE BORDER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THAT IS NOT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
US TO GET THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE RIDGE LOOK PRETTY DIRTY (FILLED
WITH MOISTURE) SO IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GFS CRANKS UP THE POPS WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF
IS LESS EXCITED ABOUT THE RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
FOR NOW I`LL STAY IN THE MIDDLE AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS BRING.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE
TODAY WE SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EL PASO HAS HAD A
RECORD LONG STREAK OF 100 DAYS IN A ROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. THAT STREAK MAY COME TO AN END TODAY. IT WILL
BE CLOSE IF WE CAN GET ANY KIND OF SUNSHINE I THINK WE SHOULD JUST
HIT 90...BUT IF THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND TOO MUCH UPPER 80`S WILL BE
THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR. IF WE CAN GET BY TODAY THE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD KEEP THE STREAK AT EL PASO GOING
A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z
WE WILL SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS
IN THE AREA...BUT WE ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY TRIGGERING OFF
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE
CASE AGAIN TODAY. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE RIVER. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM STORMS WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 34008KT AND CLOUDS OF SCT-BKN120.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BUT WE ARE HAVING A LITTLE CHALLENGE
IN GETTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND
THAT WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
WE WON`T SEE REAL GREAT CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY BUT WE WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUR WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND MIN RH`S WILL BE 20% OR HIGHER ALL
WEEK. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 89  68  92  70 /  10  20  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           90  64  92  68 /  10  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              84  62  88  65 /  20  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              88  64  90  66 /  20  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              66  48  69  50 /  40  40  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   81  61  85  64 /  40  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             73  55  77  58 /  60  50  40  30
DEMING                  84  60  87  63 /  50  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               80  59  85  63 /  50  40  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      90  68  93  71 /  10  20  30  30
DELL CITY               93  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            92  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              86  64  88  67 /  10  20  30  30
FABENS                  91  65  94  68 /  10  20  30  30
SANTA TERESA            87  65  91  68 /  20  20  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          86  64  89  67 /  20  20  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           85  63  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
HATCH                   85  60  88  64 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                85  62  89  64 /  40  40  30  30
OROGRANDE               87  66  91  68 /  10  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 75  54  76  56 /  40  30  60  40
MESCALERO               76  52  79  54 /  40  40  50  40
TIMBERON                74  55  77  57 /  30  30  50  40
WINSTON                 71  52  75  55 /  50  50  50  30
HILLSBORO               80  57  84  60 /  50  40  30  30
SPACEPORT               83  61  87  64 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            72  48  76  51 /  60  50  50  30
HURLEY                  77  56  80  59 /  50  40  40  30
CLIFF                   77  55  82  58 /  60  50  40  30
MULE CREEK              73  51  78  53 /  60  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 78  56  82  59 /  50  40  30  30
ANIMAS                  80  60  84  62 /  50  40  40  30
HACHITA                 82  59  86  61 /  50  40  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  58  84  61 /  50  40  50  30
CLOVERDALE              75  57  79  60 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 041011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF
THE RIVER. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH MIGHT COOL OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER WATER EVERYWHERE...BUT JUST NOT MUCH RAIN. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT WITHOUT A SOLID TRIGGER IT CAN BE DIFFICULT TO FIRE OFF
A THUNDERSTORM. TO GET THUNDERSTORMS YOU NEED THREE
THINGS...MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY. WE HAVE THE MOISTURE AND
THE LIFT IS PROVIDED BY THE HEATING FROM THE SUN AND THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WE DON`T HAVE MUCH INSTABILITY. WITHOUT SOME WEAK
TROUGH OR COLDER AIR ALOFT WE WON`T BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE MUCH SO IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET THUNDERSTORMS
GOING...LIKE YESTERDAY. I DIDN`T TINKER TO MUCH WITH OUR POPS BUT
I`M NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN
TODAY. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THE SCATTERED POPS WEST OF THE RIVER
AND GIVEN EAST LOCATIONS ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO OUR EAST WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN END UP SOUTH OF
THE BORDER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THAT IS NOT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
US TO GET THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE RIDGE LOOK PRETTY DIRTY (FILLED
WITH MOISTURE) SO IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GFS CRANKS UP THE POPS WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF
IS LESS EXCITED ABOUT THE RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
FOR NOW I`LL STAY IN THE MIDDLE AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS BRING.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE
TODAY WE SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EL PASO HAS HAD A
RECORD LONG STREAK OF 100 DAYS IN A ROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. THAT STREAK MAY COME TO AN END TODAY. IT WILL
BE CLOSE IF WE CAN GET ANY KIND OF SUNSHINE I THINK WE SHOULD JUST
HIT 90...BUT IF THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND TOO MUCH UPPER 80`S WILL BE
THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR. IF WE CAN GET BY TODAY THE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD KEEP THE STREAK AT EL PASO GOING
A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z
WE WILL SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS
IN THE AREA...BUT WE ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY TRIGGERING OFF
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE
CASE AGAIN TODAY. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE RIVER. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM STORMS WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 34008KT AND CLOUDS OF SCT-BKN120.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BUT WE ARE HAVING A LITTLE CHALLENGE
IN GETTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND
THAT WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
WE WON`T SEE REAL GREAT CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY BUT WE WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUR WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND MIN RH`S WILL BE 20% OR HIGHER ALL
WEEK. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 89  68  92  70 /  10  20  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           90  64  92  68 /  10  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              84  62  88  65 /  20  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              88  64  90  66 /  20  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              66  48  69  50 /  40  40  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   81  61  85  64 /  40  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             73  55  77  58 /  60  50  40  30
DEMING                  84  60  87  63 /  50  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               80  59  85  63 /  50  40  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      90  68  93  71 /  10  20  30  30
DELL CITY               93  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            92  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              86  64  88  67 /  10  20  30  30
FABENS                  91  65  94  68 /  10  20  30  30
SANTA TERESA            87  65  91  68 /  20  20  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          86  64  89  67 /  20  20  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           85  63  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
HATCH                   85  60  88  64 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                85  62  89  64 /  40  40  30  30
OROGRANDE               87  66  91  68 /  10  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 75  54  76  56 /  40  30  60  40
MESCALERO               76  52  79  54 /  40  40  50  40
TIMBERON                74  55  77  57 /  30  30  50  40
WINSTON                 71  52  75  55 /  50  50  50  30
HILLSBORO               80  57  84  60 /  50  40  30  30
SPACEPORT               83  61  87  64 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            72  48  76  51 /  60  50  50  30
HURLEY                  77  56  80  59 /  50  40  40  30
CLIFF                   77  55  82  58 /  60  50  40  30
MULE CREEK              73  51  78  53 /  60  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 78  56  82  59 /  50  40  30  30
ANIMAS                  80  60  84  62 /  50  40  40  30
HACHITA                 82  59  86  61 /  50  40  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  58  84  61 /  50  40  50  30
CLOVERDALE              75  57  79  60 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 041011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF
THE RIVER. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH MIGHT COOL OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER WATER EVERYWHERE...BUT JUST NOT MUCH RAIN. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT WITHOUT A SOLID TRIGGER IT CAN BE DIFFICULT TO FIRE OFF
A THUNDERSTORM. TO GET THUNDERSTORMS YOU NEED THREE
THINGS...MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY. WE HAVE THE MOISTURE AND
THE LIFT IS PROVIDED BY THE HEATING FROM THE SUN AND THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WE DON`T HAVE MUCH INSTABILITY. WITHOUT SOME WEAK
TROUGH OR COLDER AIR ALOFT WE WON`T BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE MUCH SO IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET THUNDERSTORMS
GOING...LIKE YESTERDAY. I DIDN`T TINKER TO MUCH WITH OUR POPS BUT
I`M NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN
TODAY. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THE SCATTERED POPS WEST OF THE RIVER
AND GIVEN EAST LOCATIONS ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO OUR EAST WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN END UP SOUTH OF
THE BORDER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THAT IS NOT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
US TO GET THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE RIDGE LOOK PRETTY DIRTY (FILLED
WITH MOISTURE) SO IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GFS CRANKS UP THE POPS WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF
IS LESS EXCITED ABOUT THE RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
FOR NOW I`LL STAY IN THE MIDDLE AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS BRING.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE
TODAY WE SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EL PASO HAS HAD A
RECORD LONG STREAK OF 100 DAYS IN A ROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. THAT STREAK MAY COME TO AN END TODAY. IT WILL
BE CLOSE IF WE CAN GET ANY KIND OF SUNSHINE I THINK WE SHOULD JUST
HIT 90...BUT IF THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND TOO MUCH UPPER 80`S WILL BE
THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR. IF WE CAN GET BY TODAY THE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD KEEP THE STREAK AT EL PASO GOING
A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z
WE WILL SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS
IN THE AREA...BUT WE ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY TRIGGERING OFF
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE
CASE AGAIN TODAY. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE RIVER. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM STORMS WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 34008KT AND CLOUDS OF SCT-BKN120.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BUT WE ARE HAVING A LITTLE CHALLENGE
IN GETTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND
THAT WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
WE WON`T SEE REAL GREAT CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY BUT WE WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUR WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND MIN RH`S WILL BE 20% OR HIGHER ALL
WEEK. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 89  68  92  70 /  10  20  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           90  64  92  68 /  10  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              84  62  88  65 /  20  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              88  64  90  66 /  20  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              66  48  69  50 /  40  40  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   81  61  85  64 /  40  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             73  55  77  58 /  60  50  40  30
DEMING                  84  60  87  63 /  50  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               80  59  85  63 /  50  40  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      90  68  93  71 /  10  20  30  30
DELL CITY               93  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            92  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              86  64  88  67 /  10  20  30  30
FABENS                  91  65  94  68 /  10  20  30  30
SANTA TERESA            87  65  91  68 /  20  20  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          86  64  89  67 /  20  20  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           85  63  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
HATCH                   85  60  88  64 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                85  62  89  64 /  40  40  30  30
OROGRANDE               87  66  91  68 /  10  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 75  54  76  56 /  40  30  60  40
MESCALERO               76  52  79  54 /  40  40  50  40
TIMBERON                74  55  77  57 /  30  30  50  40
WINSTON                 71  52  75  55 /  50  50  50  30
HILLSBORO               80  57  84  60 /  50  40  30  30
SPACEPORT               83  61  87  64 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            72  48  76  51 /  60  50  50  30
HURLEY                  77  56  80  59 /  50  40  40  30
CLIFF                   77  55  82  58 /  60  50  40  30
MULE CREEK              73  51  78  53 /  60  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 78  56  82  59 /  50  40  30  30
ANIMAS                  80  60  84  62 /  50  40  40  30
HACHITA                 82  59  86  61 /  50  40  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  58  84  61 /  50  40  50  30
CLOVERDALE              75  57  79  60 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 041011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF
THE RIVER. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH MIGHT COOL OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER WATER EVERYWHERE...BUT JUST NOT MUCH RAIN. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT WITHOUT A SOLID TRIGGER IT CAN BE DIFFICULT TO FIRE OFF
A THUNDERSTORM. TO GET THUNDERSTORMS YOU NEED THREE
THINGS...MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY. WE HAVE THE MOISTURE AND
THE LIFT IS PROVIDED BY THE HEATING FROM THE SUN AND THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WE DON`T HAVE MUCH INSTABILITY. WITHOUT SOME WEAK
TROUGH OR COLDER AIR ALOFT WE WON`T BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE MUCH SO IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET THUNDERSTORMS
GOING...LIKE YESTERDAY. I DIDN`T TINKER TO MUCH WITH OUR POPS BUT
I`M NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN
TODAY. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THE SCATTERED POPS WEST OF THE RIVER
AND GIVEN EAST LOCATIONS ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO OUR EAST WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN END UP SOUTH OF
THE BORDER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THAT IS NOT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
US TO GET THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE RIDGE LOOK PRETTY DIRTY (FILLED
WITH MOISTURE) SO IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GFS CRANKS UP THE POPS WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF
IS LESS EXCITED ABOUT THE RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
FOR NOW I`LL STAY IN THE MIDDLE AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS BRING.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE
TODAY WE SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EL PASO HAS HAD A
RECORD LONG STREAK OF 100 DAYS IN A ROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. THAT STREAK MAY COME TO AN END TODAY. IT WILL
BE CLOSE IF WE CAN GET ANY KIND OF SUNSHINE I THINK WE SHOULD JUST
HIT 90...BUT IF THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND TOO MUCH UPPER 80`S WILL BE
THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR. IF WE CAN GET BY TODAY THE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD KEEP THE STREAK AT EL PASO GOING
A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z
WE WILL SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS
IN THE AREA...BUT WE ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY TRIGGERING OFF
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE
CASE AGAIN TODAY. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE RIVER. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM STORMS WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 34008KT AND CLOUDS OF SCT-BKN120.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BUT WE ARE HAVING A LITTLE CHALLENGE
IN GETTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND
THAT WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
WE WON`T SEE REAL GREAT CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY BUT WE WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUR WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND MIN RH`S WILL BE 20% OR HIGHER ALL
WEEK. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 89  68  92  70 /  10  20  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           90  64  92  68 /  10  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              84  62  88  65 /  20  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              88  64  90  66 /  20  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              66  48  69  50 /  40  40  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   81  61  85  64 /  40  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             73  55  77  58 /  60  50  40  30
DEMING                  84  60  87  63 /  50  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               80  59  85  63 /  50  40  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      90  68  93  71 /  10  20  30  30
DELL CITY               93  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            92  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              86  64  88  67 /  10  20  30  30
FABENS                  91  65  94  68 /  10  20  30  30
SANTA TERESA            87  65  91  68 /  20  20  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          86  64  89  67 /  20  20  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           85  63  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
HATCH                   85  60  88  64 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                85  62  89  64 /  40  40  30  30
OROGRANDE               87  66  91  68 /  10  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 75  54  76  56 /  40  30  60  40
MESCALERO               76  52  79  54 /  40  40  50  40
TIMBERON                74  55  77  57 /  30  30  50  40
WINSTON                 71  52  75  55 /  50  50  50  30
HILLSBORO               80  57  84  60 /  50  40  30  30
SPACEPORT               83  61  87  64 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            72  48  76  51 /  60  50  50  30
HURLEY                  77  56  80  59 /  50  40  40  30
CLIFF                   77  55  82  58 /  60  50  40  30
MULE CREEK              73  51  78  53 /  60  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 78  56  82  59 /  50  40  30  30
ANIMAS                  80  60  84  62 /  50  40  40  30
HACHITA                 82  59  86  61 /  50  40  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  58  84  61 /  50  40  50  30
CLOVERDALE              75  57  79  60 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 041011
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE WEST OF
THE RIVER. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH MIGHT COOL OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER WATER EVERYWHERE...BUT JUST NOT MUCH RAIN. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT WITHOUT A SOLID TRIGGER IT CAN BE DIFFICULT TO FIRE OFF
A THUNDERSTORM. TO GET THUNDERSTORMS YOU NEED THREE
THINGS...MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY. WE HAVE THE MOISTURE AND
THE LIFT IS PROVIDED BY THE HEATING FROM THE SUN AND THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WE DON`T HAVE MUCH INSTABILITY. WITHOUT SOME WEAK
TROUGH OR COLDER AIR ALOFT WE WON`T BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE MUCH SO IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO GET THUNDERSTORMS
GOING...LIKE YESTERDAY. I DIDN`T TINKER TO MUCH WITH OUR POPS BUT
I`M NOT CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN
TODAY. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THE SCATTERED POPS WEST OF THE RIVER
AND GIVEN EAST LOCATIONS ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO OUR EAST WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN END UP SOUTH OF
THE BORDER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THAT IS NOT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
US TO GET THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE RIDGE LOOK PRETTY DIRTY (FILLED
WITH MOISTURE) SO IT LOOKS LIKE OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE THAT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GFS CRANKS UP THE POPS WITH THE FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF
IS LESS EXCITED ABOUT THE RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
FOR NOW I`LL STAY IN THE MIDDLE AND WAIT AND SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS BRING.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE
TODAY WE SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EL PASO HAS HAD A
RECORD LONG STREAK OF 100 DAYS IN A ROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES. THAT STREAK MAY COME TO AN END TODAY. IT WILL
BE CLOSE IF WE CAN GET ANY KIND OF SUNSHINE I THINK WE SHOULD JUST
HIT 90...BUT IF THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND TOO MUCH UPPER 80`S WILL BE
THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR. IF WE CAN GET BY TODAY THE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO RUN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD KEEP THE STREAK AT EL PASO GOING
A LITTLE LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z
WE WILL SEE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS
IN THE AREA...BUT WE ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY TRIGGERING OFF
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL BE THE
CASE AGAIN TODAY. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE RIVER. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY FROM STORMS WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 34008KT AND CLOUDS OF SCT-BKN120.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BUT WE ARE HAVING A LITTLE CHALLENGE
IN GETTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE. THAT WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AND
THAT WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
IN AREA MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. OUR RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
WE WON`T SEE REAL GREAT CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY BUT WE WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUR WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND MIN RH`S WILL BE 20% OR HIGHER ALL
WEEK. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 89  68  92  70 /  10  20  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           90  64  92  68 /  10  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              84  62  88  65 /  20  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              88  64  90  66 /  20  30  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              66  48  69  50 /  40  40  60  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   81  61  85  64 /  40  40  30  30
SILVER CITY             73  55  77  58 /  60  50  40  30
DEMING                  84  60  87  63 /  50  40  30  30
LORDSBURG               80  59  85  63 /  50  40  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      90  68  93  71 /  10  20  30  30
DELL CITY               93  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            92  67  95  70 /  10  20  30  30
LOMA LINDA              86  64  88  67 /  10  20  30  30
FABENS                  91  65  94  68 /  10  20  30  30
SANTA TERESA            87  65  91  68 /  20  20  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          86  64  89  67 /  20  20  30  40
JORNADA RANGE           85  63  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
HATCH                   85  60  88  64 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                85  62  89  64 /  40  40  30  30
OROGRANDE               87  66  91  68 /  10  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 75  54  76  56 /  40  30  60  40
MESCALERO               76  52  79  54 /  40  40  50  40
TIMBERON                74  55  77  57 /  30  30  50  40
WINSTON                 71  52  75  55 /  50  50  50  30
HILLSBORO               80  57  84  60 /  50  40  30  30
SPACEPORT               83  61  87  64 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            72  48  76  51 /  60  50  50  30
HURLEY                  77  56  80  59 /  50  40  40  30
CLIFF                   77  55  82  58 /  60  50  40  30
MULE CREEK              73  51  78  53 /  60  40  40  30
FAYWOOD                 78  56  82  59 /  50  40  30  30
ANIMAS                  80  60  84  62 /  50  40  40  30
HACHITA                 82  59  86  61 /  50  40  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          80  58  84  61 /  50  40  50  30
CLOVERDALE              75  57  79  60 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE



000
FXUS64 KHGX 040957
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
457 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET.
45


&&
.MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              91  76  94  76  96 /  30  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  91  81  91 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14




000
FXUS64 KAMA 040932
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
432 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY
TRY TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AIDING IN THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES BY
NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN A STRONG COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A 1015-1020 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWS FOR A MUCH COOLER
AND MORE MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S. BIGGEST CONCERN FROM ANY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
GIVEN FORECAST PWATS OF 0.75 INCH TO ONE INCH BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                92  66  92  68  93 /   5   5  10   5  20
BEAVER OK                  97  71  97  71  97 /   5   5  10  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              93  66  91  65  91 /  10  10  20  10  10
BORGER TX                  95  71  95  72  96 /   5   5  10  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              96  66  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
CANYON TX                  92  65  92  67  93 /   5   5  10   5  20
CLARENDON TX               93  67  93  69  95 /   0   5   5   5  20
DALHART TX                 95  65  92  65  93 /  10  10  20  10  20
GUYMON OK                  95  69  95  69  96 /  10  10  10  10  20
HEREFORD TX                93  65  91  66  93 /   5   5  10   5  20
LIPSCOMB TX                96  71  95  72  97 /   0   5   5   5  20
PAMPA TX                   93  66  92  68  94 /   5   5   5   5  20
SHAMROCK TX                95  70  94  71  96 /   0   0   5   5  20
WELLINGTON TX              96  70  95  71  98 /   0   5   5   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

8/11




000
FXUS64 KAMA 040932
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
432 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY
TRY TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AIDING IN THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES BY
NEXT TUESDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN A STRONG COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A 1015-1020 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOWS FOR A MUCH COOLER
AND MORE MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S. BIGGEST CONCERN FROM ANY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
GIVEN FORECAST PWATS OF 0.75 INCH TO ONE INCH BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                92  66  92  68  93 /   5   5  10   5  20
BEAVER OK                  97  71  97  71  97 /   5   5  10  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              93  66  91  65  91 /  10  10  20  10  10
BORGER TX                  95  71  95  72  96 /   5   5  10  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              96  66  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
CANYON TX                  92  65  92  67  93 /   5   5  10   5  20
CLARENDON TX               93  67  93  69  95 /   0   5   5   5  20
DALHART TX                 95  65  92  65  93 /  10  10  20  10  20
GUYMON OK                  95  69  95  69  96 /  10  10  10  10  20
HEREFORD TX                93  65  91  66  93 /   5   5  10   5  20
LIPSCOMB TX                96  71  95  72  97 /   0   5   5   5  20
PAMPA TX                   93  66  92  68  94 /   5   5   5   5  20
SHAMROCK TX                95  70  94  71  96 /   0   0   5   5  20
WELLINGTON TX              96  70  95  71  98 /   0   5   5   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

8/11



000
FXUS64 KEWX 040907
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
407 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NE TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NE MEXICO.
ALSO...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS BEING DEPICTED. BOTH HIRES AND
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE MOVING TO THE WEST TODAY
WHILE MOISTURE ESCALATES. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (SOUTHEAST COUNTIES) TO ABOUT 2 INCHES. WITH THAT IN
MIND AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...EXPECT
ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTH OF A
KENEDY TO SCHULENBURG LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD GENERALLY BY
AROUND FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT CANT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE
LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO 101 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL DOMINATE
FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
FEW STORMS AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO AND WEAKENS WHILE AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECM AND GFS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...OPTED TO DO A MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF GFS VERIFIES
(WETTEST MODEL PER LATEST RUN)...SOME AREAS MAY GET SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              95  76  97  76  98 /  10  -   10   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  74  96  74  97 /  20  -   10   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  75  97  75  98 /  20  10  10   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  74  95  74  97 /  10  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  77  97  77  99 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  75  96  75  97 /  10  -   -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  75  97  74  98 /  20  20  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   93  76  96  76  97 /  20  10  20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  77  97  76  98 /  20  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  76  98  75  99 /  20  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17



000
FXUS64 KEWX 040907
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
407 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NE TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NE MEXICO.
ALSO...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS BEING DEPICTED. BOTH HIRES AND
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE MOVING TO THE WEST TODAY
WHILE MOISTURE ESCALATES. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (SOUTHEAST COUNTIES) TO ABOUT 2 INCHES. WITH THAT IN
MIND AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...EXPECT
ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTH OF A
KENEDY TO SCHULENBURG LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD GENERALLY BY
AROUND FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT CANT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE
LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO 101 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL DOMINATE
FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
FEW STORMS AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO AND WEAKENS WHILE AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECM AND GFS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...OPTED TO DO A MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF GFS VERIFIES
(WETTEST MODEL PER LATEST RUN)...SOME AREAS MAY GET SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              95  76  97  76  98 /  10  -   10   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  74  96  74  97 /  20  -   10   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  75  97  75  98 /  20  10  10   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  74  95  74  97 /  10  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  77  97  77  99 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  75  96  75  97 /  10  -   -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  75  97  74  98 /  20  20  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   93  76  96  76  97 /  20  10  20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  77  97  76  98 /  20  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  76  98  75  99 /  20  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17



000
FXUS64 KEWX 040907
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
407 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NE TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NE MEXICO.
ALSO...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS BEING DEPICTED. BOTH HIRES AND
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE MOVING TO THE WEST TODAY
WHILE MOISTURE ESCALATES. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (SOUTHEAST COUNTIES) TO ABOUT 2 INCHES. WITH THAT IN
MIND AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...EXPECT
ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTH OF A
KENEDY TO SCHULENBURG LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD GENERALLY BY
AROUND FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT CANT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE
LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO 101 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL DOMINATE
FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
FEW STORMS AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO AND WEAKENS WHILE AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECM AND GFS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...OPTED TO DO A MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF GFS VERIFIES
(WETTEST MODEL PER LATEST RUN)...SOME AREAS MAY GET SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              95  76  97  76  98 /  10  -   10   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  74  96  74  97 /  20  -   10   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  75  97  75  98 /  20  10  10   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  74  95  74  97 /  10  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  77  97  77  99 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  75  96  75  97 /  10  -   -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  75  97  74  98 /  20  20  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   93  76  96  76  97 /  20  10  20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  77  97  76  98 /  20  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  76  98  75  99 /  20  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17



000
FXUS64 KEWX 040907
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
407 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM NE TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NE MEXICO.
ALSO...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS BEING DEPICTED. BOTH HIRES AND
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE MOVING TO THE WEST TODAY
WHILE MOISTURE ESCALATES. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (SOUTHEAST COUNTIES) TO ABOUT 2 INCHES. WITH THAT IN
MIND AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...EXPECT
ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTH OF A
KENEDY TO SCHULENBURG LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD GENERALLY BY
AROUND FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT CANT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE
LOW TO MID 70S MOST AREAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO 101 ACROSS SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL DOMINATE
FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...CANT RULE OUT
FEW STORMS AFFECTING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO AND WEAKENS WHILE AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECM AND GFS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING AND PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...OPTED TO DO A MODEL BLEND. HOWEVER...IF GFS VERIFIES
(WETTEST MODEL PER LATEST RUN)...SOME AREAS MAY GET SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              95  76  97  76  98 /  10  -   10   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  94  74  96  74  97 /  20  -   10   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     95  75  97  75  98 /  20  10  10   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  74  95  74  97 /  10  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  77  97  77  99 /  10  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  75  96  75  97 /  10  -   -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             96  75  97  74  98 /  20  20  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        94  76  96  75  97 /  20  10  10   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   93  76  96  76  97 /  20  10  20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       95  77  97  76  98 /  20  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           96  76  98  75  99 /  20  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17



000
FXUS64 KLUB 040857
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  91  65 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         92  64  93  65 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  64  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  64  91  64 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   93  64  91  66 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  71  98  73 /   0   0  10   0
SPUR          97  69  95  69 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     98  72  99  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS64 KLUB 040857
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  91  65 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         92  64  93  65 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  64  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  64  91  64 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   93  64  91  66 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  71  98  73 /   0   0  10   0
SPUR          97  69  95  69 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     98  72  99  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS64 KLUB 040857
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  91  65 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         92  64  93  65 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  64  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  64  91  64 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   93  64  91  66 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  71  98  73 /   0   0  10   0
SPUR          97  69  95  69 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     98  72  99  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS64 KLUB 040857
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  91  65 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         92  64  93  65 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  64  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  64  91  64 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   93  64  91  66 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  71  98  73 /   0   0  10   0
SPUR          97  69  95  69 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     98  72  99  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99



000
FXUS64 KSJT 040855
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
355 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low stratus is developing over the Hill Country and will spread
north through the early morning hours. This may result in a few
hours of overcast conditions for some areas along/south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Ceilings will erode by mid-morning with a
diurnal cu field setting up by midday. Temperatures are forecast to
be very similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 90s. While the
upper-level ridge will keep the hot and dry conditions in place
across most of the area, increasing moisture and instability will
provide an opportunity for isolated convection this afternoon,
primarily south of a Sonora to Brady line. Coverage is expected to
remain limited if this activity develops.

Diurnal clouds and (possible) convection will dissipate quickly
around sunset. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight
with temperatures falling into the low/mid 70s by daybreak Saturday.
Low clouds will be possible once again, mainly over the northwest
Hill Country.

Johnson

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Shower and thunderstorms may develop toward the middle of next
week, as the the upper ridge weakens and pushes southwest into
Mexico. A weak cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night may bring
a low level focus for storm development into Thursday. The best
rain chances on Thursday will be along the I-10 corridor, as drier
air works in behind the front. Some storms may contain locally
heavy rainfall as precipital waters rise to 1.8 to 2.0 inches. An
isolated severe storm also possible with GFS SB CAPES up to 1500
J/KG.

Until then, the upper ridge will suppress shower and thunderstorms,
Temperatures likely rise a couple degrees Sunday and Monday as the
upper ridge temporarily expands and an 850 MB thermal ridge builds
in from west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  74  95  76 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  74  96  75 /   5   5   5   0
Junction  96  72  94  73 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

04




000
FXUS64 KSJT 040855
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
355 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low stratus is developing over the Hill Country and will spread
north through the early morning hours. This may result in a few
hours of overcast conditions for some areas along/south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. Ceilings will erode by mid-morning with a
diurnal cu field setting up by midday. Temperatures are forecast to
be very similar to yesterday, generally in the mid 90s. While the
upper-level ridge will keep the hot and dry conditions in place
across most of the area, increasing moisture and instability will
provide an opportunity for isolated convection this afternoon,
primarily south of a Sonora to Brady line. Coverage is expected to
remain limited if this activity develops.

Diurnal clouds and (possible) convection will dissipate quickly
around sunset. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies overnight
with temperatures falling into the low/mid 70s by daybreak Saturday.
Low clouds will be possible once again, mainly over the northwest
Hill Country.

Johnson

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Shower and thunderstorms may develop toward the middle of next
week, as the the upper ridge weakens and pushes southwest into
Mexico. A weak cold front Wednesday and Wednesday night may bring
a low level focus for storm development into Thursday. The best
rain chances on Thursday will be along the I-10 corridor, as drier
air works in behind the front. Some storms may contain locally
heavy rainfall as precipital waters rise to 1.8 to 2.0 inches. An
isolated severe storm also possible with GFS SB CAPES up to 1500
J/KG.

Until then, the upper ridge will suppress shower and thunderstorms,
Temperatures likely rise a couple degrees Sunday and Monday as the
upper ridge temporarily expands and an 850 MB thermal ridge builds
in from west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  74  95  76 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  74  96  75 /   5   5   5   0
Junction  96  72  94  73 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

04



000
FXUS64 KBRO 040851
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
351 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LATEST IR/WV SATL
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED
PRETTY WELL ON THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS
BROUGHT THE CONV TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SATL
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS 500 MB FEATURE
FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING 500 MB RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN ALSO AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THE CONV POTENTIAL
TO STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE
LEVELS DECREASE. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE REGION
TODAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONV
TO FIRE. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC INLAND TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE
SLGT CHC CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS ON SAT.

AS THE ATMS DRIES OUT AND STABILIZES FRI AND SAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
CREEPING BACK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS SOMEWHAT TAME. H5 RIDGING
WILL STAY ANCHORED UPSTREAM...EVEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHT OR LESS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER FROM A COUPLE OF INFLUENCES. THE FIRST WILL BE
PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL
FINALLY SUCCEED IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK. THE OTHER
INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAK H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE TWO INFLUENCES
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST AND EVEN EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR
LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THENCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH APPARENTLY LACKING ENOUGH PUNCH TO SERIOUSLY
THREATEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF...DO NOT
SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND SLIGHTLY WETTER LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME PTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...BUT MORNINGS AND LATE EVENINGS TO OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PERSIST ON INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AND FAIRLY LOW SEAS. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUSTAIN PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS AS THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.
H5 RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY NORTHERN
TRACK SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANY WEAK LEE
SIDE OR SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST TEXAS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  80  92  79 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  94  78 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            94  78  97  78 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              98  81  99  80 /  20  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  78 100  78 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  88  81 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/60/58



000
FXUS64 KBRO 040851
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
351 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LATEST IR/WV SATL
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED
PRETTY WELL ON THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS
BROUGHT THE CONV TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SATL
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS 500 MB FEATURE
FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING 500 MB RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN ALSO AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THE CONV POTENTIAL
TO STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE
LEVELS DECREASE. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE REGION
TODAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONV
TO FIRE. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC INLAND TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE
SLGT CHC CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS ON SAT.

AS THE ATMS DRIES OUT AND STABILIZES FRI AND SAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
CREEPING BACK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS SOMEWHAT TAME. H5 RIDGING
WILL STAY ANCHORED UPSTREAM...EVEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHT OR LESS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER FROM A COUPLE OF INFLUENCES. THE FIRST WILL BE
PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL
FINALLY SUCCEED IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK. THE OTHER
INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAK H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE TWO INFLUENCES
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST AND EVEN EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR
LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THENCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH APPARENTLY LACKING ENOUGH PUNCH TO SERIOUSLY
THREATEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF...DO NOT
SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND SLIGHTLY WETTER LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME PTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...BUT MORNINGS AND LATE EVENINGS TO OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PERSIST ON INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AND FAIRLY LOW SEAS. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUSTAIN PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS AS THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.
H5 RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY NORTHERN
TRACK SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANY WEAK LEE
SIDE OR SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST TEXAS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  80  92  79 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  94  78 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            94  78  97  78 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              98  81  99  80 /  20  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  78 100  78 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  88  81 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/60/58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 040851
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
351 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE LATEST IR/WV SATL
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED
PRETTY WELL ON THE POSITION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS
BROUGHT THE CONV TO THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SATL
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS 500 MB FEATURE
FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT THROUGH
SAT ALLOWING 500 MB RIDGING TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE AND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
WEAKEN ALSO AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS. EXPECT THE CONV POTENTIAL
TO STEADILY DIMINISH OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE
LEVELS DECREASE. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE REGION
TODAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD DAYTIME HEATING/SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONV
TO FIRE. SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC INLAND TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE
SLGT CHC CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS ON SAT.

AS THE ATMS DRIES OUT AND STABILIZES FRI AND SAT WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READINGS
CREEPING BACK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 90S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS SOMEWHAT TAME. H5 RIDGING
WILL STAY ANCHORED UPSTREAM...EVEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TO SLIGHT OR LESS THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD HOWEVER FROM A COUPLE OF INFLUENCES. THE FIRST WILL BE
PERSISTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL
FINALLY SUCCEED IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK. THE OTHER
INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAK H5 TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE TWO INFLUENCES
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO RETREAT WEST AND EVEN EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR
LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THENCE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THOUGH APPARENTLY LACKING ENOUGH PUNCH TO SERIOUSLY
THREATEN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOOKING AT THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF...DO NOT
SEE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY AND NIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND SLIGHTLY WETTER LATER IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF.
AFTERNOONS WILL BECOME PTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...BUT MORNINGS AND LATE EVENINGS TO OVERNIGHTS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PERSIST ON INTO THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT
S-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS AND FAIRLY LOW SEAS. NO SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUSTAIN PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS AS THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS INTO THE LONG TERM.
H5 RIDGING BUILDING UPSTREAM WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY NORTHERN
TRACK SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ANY WEAK LEE
SIDE OR SOUTHERN PLAINS/WEST TEXAS SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HAVE A
MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  80  92  79 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          93  78  94  78 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            94  78  97  78 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              98  81  99  80 /  20  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  78 100  78 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  88  81 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/60/58



000
FXUS64 KCRP 040846
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
346 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL EXIST DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TODAY WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. ISOLATED CONVECTION
HAS ALL READY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF WATERS
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 100S OUT WEST AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND FROM A DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CAP
AND MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENT MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH NOCTURNAL GULF ACTIVITY
MOVING INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST...TO NEAR 100
DEGREES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  78  94  77  95  /  30  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          92  75  94  75  96  /  30  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            99  77 102  77 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             96  75  98  75  99  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  79  91  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           99  75 101  76 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        95  77  96  76  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  80  90  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 040846
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
346 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL EXIST DURING THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TODAY WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. ISOLATED CONVECTION
HAS ALL READY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE GULF WATERS
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 100S OUT WEST AND LOW/MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WITH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND FROM A DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES RETROGRADING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CAP
AND MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENT MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH NOCTURNAL GULF ACTIVITY
MOVING INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE MID 90S ACROSS THE EAST...TO NEAR 100
DEGREES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  78  94  77  95  /  30  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          92  75  94  75  96  /  30  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            99  77 102  77 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             96  75  98  75  99  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  79  91  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10
COTULLA           99  75 101  76 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        95  77  96  76  97  /  30  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  80  90  79  91  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM



000
FXUS64 KFWD 040822
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SUMMER IS HERE TO STAY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
SEVERAL AREAS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...REACHING
99-100 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
KILLEEN. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN DEVELOPING WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT
SUPPRESSION UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WIN OUT AND
HAVE CONFINED THE MENTION TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ONLY THE
AREA LISTED ABOVE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL MOTION UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...EVIDENT WITHIN THE PWATS...BUT OTHERWISE THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL LEAVE
CONVECTIVE WORDING OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE NEXT
WEEK DURING WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
CAUSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO
OUR WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...INCLUDING TEXAS...BY THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EITHER ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTING A MODEL
CONSENSUS WILL BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF IS NOW BRINGING THE FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL SINK AND IT MAY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS FRONT WILL NOT BRING THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
THAT EVERYONE IS WAITING FOR. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH...THEREBY PREVENTING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR FROM SPILLING DOWN THE PLAINS...BUT IT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 80S
FOR HIGHS WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT THIS WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BUT THESE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
FURTHER REFINED.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1146 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/
/06Z TAFS/ GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST FOR NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BASED ON LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE KACT TAF FROM 11-14Z...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THAT AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN 06Z TAFS.

BRADSHAW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  77  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
WACO, TX              95  75  96  75  99 /  10   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             94  73  94  74  95 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            95  76  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  75  96  76  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            97  79  98  79  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           93  74  95  75  97 /   5   5  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         93  75  97  76  98 /   5   5  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  73  96  73  97 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/82



000
FXUS64 KMAF 040755
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
255 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge will remain over the region even though an upper
trough digs across the NW part of the country the next few days. The
best it will be able to do is flatten out the top of the ridge as it
moves east.  Therefore not looking for much change in the wx out
through the middle of next week.

Still getting lots of high clouds streaming over the area as Pacific
moisture gets pulled around the west side of the ridge... helping
morning lows to be slow to cool.  Unseasonably warm temperatures
will continue with highs in the mid to upper 90s with a few
locations along the Rio Grande still hitting highs of 100 or more.
A cold front is still on track for next Thursday will result in
at least a couple days of cooler temps.

Did have a few light showers/storms over the far western edge of the
area yesterday... could see these again the next few days favoring
the higher elevations.  Best chance of rain for the plains will be
along/behind the front late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  93  71  93  70  /  10   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    97  68  96  69  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      99  72  97  73  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               96  70  95  71  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              92  67  89  67  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       92  62  91  63  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       91  57  89  59  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  70  94  70  /  10   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      95  70  94  71  /  10   0  10  10
WINK TX                        97  70  96  71  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72



000
FXUS64 KMAF 040755
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
255 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge will remain over the region even though an upper
trough digs across the NW part of the country the next few days. The
best it will be able to do is flatten out the top of the ridge as it
moves east.  Therefore not looking for much change in the wx out
through the middle of next week.

Still getting lots of high clouds streaming over the area as Pacific
moisture gets pulled around the west side of the ridge... helping
morning lows to be slow to cool.  Unseasonably warm temperatures
will continue with highs in the mid to upper 90s with a few
locations along the Rio Grande still hitting highs of 100 or more.
A cold front is still on track for next Thursday will result in
at least a couple days of cooler temps.

Did have a few light showers/storms over the far western edge of the
area yesterday... could see these again the next few days favoring
the higher elevations.  Best chance of rain for the plains will be
along/behind the front late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  93  71  93  70  /  10   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    97  68  96  69  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      99  72  97  73  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               96  70  95  71  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              92  67  89  67  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       92  62  91  63  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       91  57  89  59  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  70  94  70  /  10   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      95  70  94  71  /  10   0  10  10
WINK TX                        97  70  96  71  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72



000
FXUS64 KMAF 040755
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
255 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge will remain over the region even though an upper
trough digs across the NW part of the country the next few days. The
best it will be able to do is flatten out the top of the ridge as it
moves east.  Therefore not looking for much change in the wx out
through the middle of next week.

Still getting lots of high clouds streaming over the area as Pacific
moisture gets pulled around the west side of the ridge... helping
morning lows to be slow to cool.  Unseasonably warm temperatures
will continue with highs in the mid to upper 90s with a few
locations along the Rio Grande still hitting highs of 100 or more.
A cold front is still on track for next Thursday will result in
at least a couple days of cooler temps.

Did have a few light showers/storms over the far western edge of the
area yesterday... could see these again the next few days favoring
the higher elevations.  Best chance of rain for the plains will be
along/behind the front late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  93  71  93  70  /  10   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    97  68  96  69  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      99  72  97  73  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               96  70  95  71  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              92  67  89  67  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       92  62  91  63  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       91  57  89  59  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  70  94  70  /  10   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      95  70  94  71  /  10   0  10  10
WINK TX                        97  70  96  71  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72



000
FXUS64 KMAF 040755
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
255 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge will remain over the region even though an upper
trough digs across the NW part of the country the next few days. The
best it will be able to do is flatten out the top of the ridge as it
moves east.  Therefore not looking for much change in the wx out
through the middle of next week.

Still getting lots of high clouds streaming over the area as Pacific
moisture gets pulled around the west side of the ridge... helping
morning lows to be slow to cool.  Unseasonably warm temperatures
will continue with highs in the mid to upper 90s with a few
locations along the Rio Grande still hitting highs of 100 or more.
A cold front is still on track for next Thursday will result in
at least a couple days of cooler temps.

Did have a few light showers/storms over the far western edge of the
area yesterday... could see these again the next few days favoring
the higher elevations.  Best chance of rain for the plains will be
along/behind the front late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  93  71  93  70  /  10   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    97  68  96  69  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      99  72  97  73  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               96  70  95  71  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              92  67  89  67  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       92  62  91  63  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       91  57  89  59  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  70  94  70  /  10   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      95  70  94  71  /  10   0  10  10
WINK TX                        97  70  96  71  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72



000
FXUS64 KMAF 040755
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
255 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge will remain over the region even though an upper
trough digs across the NW part of the country the next few days. The
best it will be able to do is flatten out the top of the ridge as it
moves east.  Therefore not looking for much change in the wx out
through the middle of next week.

Still getting lots of high clouds streaming over the area as Pacific
moisture gets pulled around the west side of the ridge... helping
morning lows to be slow to cool.  Unseasonably warm temperatures
will continue with highs in the mid to upper 90s with a few
locations along the Rio Grande still hitting highs of 100 or more.
A cold front is still on track for next Thursday will result in
at least a couple days of cooler temps.

Did have a few light showers/storms over the far western edge of the
area yesterday... could see these again the next few days favoring
the higher elevations.  Best chance of rain for the plains will be
along/behind the front late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  93  71  93  70  /  10   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    97  68  96  69  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      99  72  97  73  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               96  70  95  71  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              92  67  89  67  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       92  62  91  63  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       91  57  89  59  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  70  94  70  /  10   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      95  70  94  71  /  10   0  10  10
WINK TX                        97  70  96  71  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72



000
FXUS64 KMAF 040755
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
255 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge will remain over the region even though an upper
trough digs across the NW part of the country the next few days. The
best it will be able to do is flatten out the top of the ridge as it
moves east.  Therefore not looking for much change in the wx out
through the middle of next week.

Still getting lots of high clouds streaming over the area as Pacific
moisture gets pulled around the west side of the ridge... helping
morning lows to be slow to cool.  Unseasonably warm temperatures
will continue with highs in the mid to upper 90s with a few
locations along the Rio Grande still hitting highs of 100 or more.
A cold front is still on track for next Thursday will result in
at least a couple days of cooler temps.

Did have a few light showers/storms over the far western edge of the
area yesterday... could see these again the next few days favoring
the higher elevations.  Best chance of rain for the plains will be
along/behind the front late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  93  71  93  70  /  10   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    97  68  96  69  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      99  72  97  73  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               96  70  95  71  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              92  67  89  67  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       92  62  91  63  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       91  57  89  59  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  70  94  70  /  10   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      95  70  94  71  /  10   0  10  10
WINK TX                        97  70  96  71  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72




000
FXUS64 KBRO 040712 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
212 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...500 MB RIDGING WILL BE INCREASING ITS HOLD OVER DEEP
SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL TRIM BACK THE CONV
POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN POOLED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD.
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE EFFECTS MAY FIRE OFF ISOLD CONV
LATER TODAY NEAR THE BRO AND HRL AIRPORTS. BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL
CONV COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED TODAY AND WILL NOT HAVE TOO
MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A
VICINITY COMMENT IN THE HRL AND BRO TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE WEAK 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND
OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS FRI MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE SEABREEZE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. WILL
GO WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST RANCHLANDS...FRIDAY AS THE
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOW POPS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL LOWER POPS SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO LESS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE VALUES ALONG WITH BETTER LIFT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO CAN NOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE GULF
WATERS...ESPECIALLY AS A 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO
THE UPPER70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...61/65
LONG TERM...63

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  93  78  92  79 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          94  77  92  78 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            96  75  95  78 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              97  77  97  80 /  20  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  75  99  78 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  80  89  81 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...54



000
FXUS64 KCRP 040543 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1243 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY MAY TRANSITION TO MVFR LEVELS
AT ALI/VCT TOWARDS SUNRISE. ANY PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP
WILL MIX OUT AROUND 13Z/14Z. INCLUDED VCSH REMARKS AS SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FIRST OVER THE MARINE ZONES/COASTAL AREAS AND THEN
MOVE INLAND THROUGHOUT HE DAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
OUT OF SE AND SSE...WITH SOME GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS STILL LINGER...BUT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
COULD SEE BRIEFLY MVFR CIGS FOR ALI AND VCT TOWARD MORNING. ALSO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR VISBY...BUT THINK THAT WOULD BE MAINLY VCT.
AGAIN...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
TOWARD THE COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE WOULD BE MOSTLY
A CONCERN FOR VCT AND CRP TAFS. SEA BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL BEND WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER LAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
MOVING MORE INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE TOMORROW. NOT EXPECTING
QUITE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTH AND RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0
INCHES) ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL
ZONES AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
LIMITED AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...SO THE RAIN CHANCES BECOME ISOLATED AT BEST OVER THE EAST
(WITH NO RAIN MENTIONED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS). BECAUSE OF THIS...
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS NOT VERY HIGH ANYWAY...BUT AFTER SATURDAY HAVE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...OFFSHORE. MODELS ARE KEYING ON
SOME WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD (MAINLY
TUESDAY)...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS AS I ONLY SEE A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH ELSE (GFS CAP IS WEAKER BUT ECMWF
CAP IS STILL STRONG). PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES EITHER IN THE GULF
OF AT BEST OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGES AS SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES. EXPECT MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS OR
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  93  77  94  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  94  74  95  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 101  78 102  77  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             77  97  74  98  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  91  80  91  79  /  20  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           76 101  77 101  76  /  10  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        78  97  76  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  90  80  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 040543 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1243 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY MAY TRANSITION TO MVFR LEVELS
AT ALI/VCT TOWARDS SUNRISE. ANY PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP
WILL MIX OUT AROUND 13Z/14Z. INCLUDED VCSH REMARKS AS SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FIRST OVER THE MARINE ZONES/COASTAL AREAS AND THEN
MOVE INLAND THROUGHOUT HE DAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
OUT OF SE AND SSE...WITH SOME GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS STILL LINGER...BUT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
COULD SEE BRIEFLY MVFR CIGS FOR ALI AND VCT TOWARD MORNING. ALSO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR VISBY...BUT THINK THAT WOULD BE MAINLY VCT.
AGAIN...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
TOWARD THE COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE WOULD BE MOSTLY
A CONCERN FOR VCT AND CRP TAFS. SEA BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL BEND WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER LAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
MOVING MORE INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE TOMORROW. NOT EXPECTING
QUITE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTH AND RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0
INCHES) ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL
ZONES AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
LIMITED AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...SO THE RAIN CHANCES BECOME ISOLATED AT BEST OVER THE EAST
(WITH NO RAIN MENTIONED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS). BECAUSE OF THIS...
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS NOT VERY HIGH ANYWAY...BUT AFTER SATURDAY HAVE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...OFFSHORE. MODELS ARE KEYING ON
SOME WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD (MAINLY
TUESDAY)...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS AS I ONLY SEE A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH ELSE (GFS CAP IS WEAKER BUT ECMWF
CAP IS STILL STRONG). PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES EITHER IN THE GULF
OF AT BEST OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGES AS SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES. EXPECT MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS OR
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  93  77  94  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  94  74  95  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 101  78 102  77  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             77  97  74  98  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  91  80  91  79  /  20  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           76 101  77 101  76  /  10  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        78  97  76  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       81  90  80  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KHGX 040534
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1234 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE HOUSTON TERMINALS AND GALVESTON AROUND
SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHERLY 7 TO 10
KNOTS DURING THE DAY. A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL SITES WITH DAYTIME HEATING PROMOTING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...

RADAR IS QUIET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO
TSTMS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING NEAR THE COAST. THESE WILL
EXPAND INLAND MID/LATE MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS INLAND AREAS. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  76  96  76  97 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  76  94  76  95 /  30  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  90  80  91 /  40  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...14



000
FXUS64 KHGX 040534
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1234 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE HOUSTON TERMINALS AND GALVESTON AROUND
SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHERLY 7 TO 10
KNOTS DURING THE DAY. A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL SITES WITH DAYTIME HEATING PROMOTING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE INLAND TERMINALS LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...

RADAR IS QUIET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO
TSTMS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING NEAR THE COAST. THESE WILL
EXPAND INLAND MID/LATE MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS INLAND AREAS. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  76  96  76  97 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  76  94  76  95 /  30  30  30  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  90  80  91 /  40  20  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...14




000
FXUS64 KMAF 040526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with southeasterly winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to be the dominant feature over the
forecast area through the weekend which will result in high
temperatures remaining above normal.  However, a plume of mid and
upper level moisture will continue to impinge upon the higher
terrain, and allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, and again Friday.  Surface dewpoints are only
marginally sufficient for convective development, but there will be
a modest uptick from the previous couple of days.  The mentioned
plume of moisture will spread northward over the weekend, while
the ua ridge will build a little further westward.  Will still
carry a low chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain both
days though as surface dewpoints will continue to rise.  Any
storms that develop through the weekend will be capable of gusty
winds, due to a dry subcloud layer, and at least brief heavy
rainfall.

Not much will change Monday and Tuesday, but an upper trough
currently over the northwestern ConUS will eject northeastward late
this weekend, with another shortwave trough translating eastward
over the northern U.S. Plains through mid next week.  This should
weaken the upper ridge over the region, and possibly result in a
better chance of rain as a cold front is progged to drop south into
west Texas.  Will carry at least a low order chance of thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures will end up near normal if the
front makes it into the area, or be several degrees below normal if
convection aids a better push of cooler air southward.  Will likely
stay on the warm side of guidance until it becomes more clear on how
far south the front moves.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 040526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with southeasterly winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to be the dominant feature over the
forecast area through the weekend which will result in high
temperatures remaining above normal.  However, a plume of mid and
upper level moisture will continue to impinge upon the higher
terrain, and allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, and again Friday.  Surface dewpoints are only
marginally sufficient for convective development, but there will be
a modest uptick from the previous couple of days.  The mentioned
plume of moisture will spread northward over the weekend, while
the ua ridge will build a little further westward.  Will still
carry a low chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain both
days though as surface dewpoints will continue to rise.  Any
storms that develop through the weekend will be capable of gusty
winds, due to a dry subcloud layer, and at least brief heavy
rainfall.

Not much will change Monday and Tuesday, but an upper trough
currently over the northwestern ConUS will eject northeastward late
this weekend, with another shortwave trough translating eastward
over the northern U.S. Plains through mid next week.  This should
weaken the upper ridge over the region, and possibly result in a
better chance of rain as a cold front is progged to drop south into
west Texas.  Will carry at least a low order chance of thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures will end up near normal if the
front makes it into the area, or be several degrees below normal if
convection aids a better push of cooler air southward.  Will likely
stay on the warm side of guidance until it becomes more clear on how
far south the front moves.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KMAF 040526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with southeasterly winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to be the dominant feature over the
forecast area through the weekend which will result in high
temperatures remaining above normal.  However, a plume of mid and
upper level moisture will continue to impinge upon the higher
terrain, and allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, and again Friday.  Surface dewpoints are only
marginally sufficient for convective development, but there will be
a modest uptick from the previous couple of days.  The mentioned
plume of moisture will spread northward over the weekend, while
the ua ridge will build a little further westward.  Will still
carry a low chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain both
days though as surface dewpoints will continue to rise.  Any
storms that develop through the weekend will be capable of gusty
winds, due to a dry subcloud layer, and at least brief heavy
rainfall.

Not much will change Monday and Tuesday, but an upper trough
currently over the northwestern ConUS will eject northeastward late
this weekend, with another shortwave trough translating eastward
over the northern U.S. Plains through mid next week.  This should
weaken the upper ridge over the region, and possibly result in a
better chance of rain as a cold front is progged to drop south into
west Texas.  Will carry at least a low order chance of thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures will end up near normal if the
front makes it into the area, or be several degrees below normal if
convection aids a better push of cooler air southward.  Will likely
stay on the warm side of guidance until it becomes more clear on how
far south the front moves.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KEWX 040524
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1224 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR FOR THE
I-35 TAF SITES AROUND DAY BREAK. ALL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIFT BY 15-16Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND VFR WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR BASTROP COULD MOVE INTO THE AUS VCNTY IN THE
NEXT HOUR...BUT WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LASTING ONLY 30 MINUTES
TO 1 HOUR...WILL HOLD OFF MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS NOTED ON 24-HOUR SURFACE OB TRENDS COMBINED WITH
THE INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE AGRESSIVE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE INTRODUCED
SMALL PERIODS OR TEMPOS OF IFR CIGS ALONG I-35 AROUND
DAYBREAK...AS IFR CIGS WERE NOTED IN A FEW AREAS BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING AS WELL. SOME EXTRA TAF PERIODS WERE INCLUDED MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS THAT CAN OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 12
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY SOME
WELCOMED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED
COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS TIME WINDOW.

SHALLOW LOW-LVL BUOYANCY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF IS AIDING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY IS BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AND MID TO LOW-
LVL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. THIS COMBINATION OF THERMODYNAMICS IS
NOT ALLOWING FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AS THERE IS ALSO A WARM NOSE
AROUND 500 MB AS SUGGESTED BY NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS. ALL THESE
FACTORS COMBINED SHOULD LIMIT THUNDER POSSIBILITIES. HAVE PLACED
SHOWER WORDING AS THE DOMINATE WEATHER TYPE THROUGH 8PM WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
RESTABLIZATION.

FOR FRIDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER 500MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALL WAY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AGAIN...THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

ONLY SMALL TO NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH
A RIDGE BUILDING IN. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH INTO THE
100-105F DEGREE RANGE FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS NOW WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH TOWARDS THIS AREA. OTHER THAN SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE FAR SE...SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND
RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY 10-20% AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE WITH MID AND UPPER 90F READINGS WITH SOME SPORADIC LOW 100S
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEING LIKELY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 100-105F RANGE BOTH AFTERNOONS.

RIDGE POSITIONING CONTINUES TO SLIDE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE
BIG BEND AS IT BECOMES FLATTER FROM STRONGER MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY GET SOME RAIN RELIEF FROM SOME PASSING
WEATHER SYSTEMS BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR THIS
REGION TO TAKE PART. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER... STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SET UP OVER THE REGION AND AID IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS EVEN FARTHER WEST.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE NW FLOW AS THE EC IS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE RUN-TO-RUN IN THE LONGER TERM WITH A STRONGER
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT COULD BRING THE FIRST DECENT FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  98  76 /  -   -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  96  74  97  74 /  -   10   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  98  75 /  -   10   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  97  75 /  -   -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  97  77  99  78 /  -   -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  95  75  97  76 /  -   -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  97  74  98  74 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  75  97  75 /  -   10   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  76  97  76 /  -   20  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  98  77 /  10  10   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  98  75  99  76 /  -   10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17



000
FXUS64 KEWX 040524
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1224 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR FOR THE
I-35 TAF SITES AROUND DAY BREAK. ALL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIFT BY 15-16Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND VFR WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR BASTROP COULD MOVE INTO THE AUS VCNTY IN THE
NEXT HOUR...BUT WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LASTING ONLY 30 MINUTES
TO 1 HOUR...WILL HOLD OFF MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS NOTED ON 24-HOUR SURFACE OB TRENDS COMBINED WITH
THE INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE AGRESSIVE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE INTRODUCED
SMALL PERIODS OR TEMPOS OF IFR CIGS ALONG I-35 AROUND
DAYBREAK...AS IFR CIGS WERE NOTED IN A FEW AREAS BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING AS WELL. SOME EXTRA TAF PERIODS WERE INCLUDED MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS THAT CAN OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 12
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY SOME
WELCOMED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED
COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS TIME WINDOW.

SHALLOW LOW-LVL BUOYANCY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF IS AIDING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY IS BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AND MID TO LOW-
LVL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. THIS COMBINATION OF THERMODYNAMICS IS
NOT ALLOWING FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AS THERE IS ALSO A WARM NOSE
AROUND 500 MB AS SUGGESTED BY NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS. ALL THESE
FACTORS COMBINED SHOULD LIMIT THUNDER POSSIBILITIES. HAVE PLACED
SHOWER WORDING AS THE DOMINATE WEATHER TYPE THROUGH 8PM WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
RESTABLIZATION.

FOR FRIDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER 500MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALL WAY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AGAIN...THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

ONLY SMALL TO NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH
A RIDGE BUILDING IN. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH INTO THE
100-105F DEGREE RANGE FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS NOW WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH TOWARDS THIS AREA. OTHER THAN SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE FAR SE...SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND
RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY 10-20% AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE WITH MID AND UPPER 90F READINGS WITH SOME SPORADIC LOW 100S
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEING LIKELY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 100-105F RANGE BOTH AFTERNOONS.

RIDGE POSITIONING CONTINUES TO SLIDE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE
BIG BEND AS IT BECOMES FLATTER FROM STRONGER MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY GET SOME RAIN RELIEF FROM SOME PASSING
WEATHER SYSTEMS BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR THIS
REGION TO TAKE PART. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER... STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SET UP OVER THE REGION AND AID IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS EVEN FARTHER WEST.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE NW FLOW AS THE EC IS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE RUN-TO-RUN IN THE LONGER TERM WITH A STRONGER
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT COULD BRING THE FIRST DECENT FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  98  76 /  -   -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  96  74  97  74 /  -   10   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  98  75 /  -   10   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  97  75 /  -   -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  97  77  99  78 /  -   -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  95  75  97  76 /  -   -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  97  74  98  74 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  75  97  75 /  -   10   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  76  97  76 /  -   20  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  98  77 /  10  10   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  98  75  99  76 /  -   10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17



000
FXUS64 KEWX 040524
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1224 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR FOR THE
I-35 TAF SITES AROUND DAY BREAK. ALL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LIFT BY 15-16Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND VFR WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR BASTROP COULD MOVE INTO THE AUS VCNTY IN THE
NEXT HOUR...BUT WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LASTING ONLY 30 MINUTES
TO 1 HOUR...WILL HOLD OFF MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS NOTED ON 24-HOUR SURFACE OB TRENDS COMBINED WITH
THE INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE AGRESSIVE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE INTRODUCED
SMALL PERIODS OR TEMPOS OF IFR CIGS ALONG I-35 AROUND
DAYBREAK...AS IFR CIGS WERE NOTED IN A FEW AREAS BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING AS WELL. SOME EXTRA TAF PERIODS WERE INCLUDED MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS THAT CAN OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 12
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY SOME
WELCOMED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED
COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS TIME WINDOW.

SHALLOW LOW-LVL BUOYANCY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF IS AIDING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY IS BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AND MID TO LOW-
LVL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. THIS COMBINATION OF THERMODYNAMICS IS
NOT ALLOWING FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AS THERE IS ALSO A WARM NOSE
AROUND 500 MB AS SUGGESTED BY NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS. ALL THESE
FACTORS COMBINED SHOULD LIMIT THUNDER POSSIBILITIES. HAVE PLACED
SHOWER WORDING AS THE DOMINATE WEATHER TYPE THROUGH 8PM WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
RESTABLIZATION.

FOR FRIDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER 500MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALL WAY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AGAIN...THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

ONLY SMALL TO NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH
A RIDGE BUILDING IN. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH INTO THE
100-105F DEGREE RANGE FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS NOW WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH TOWARDS THIS AREA. OTHER THAN SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE FAR SE...SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND
RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY 10-20% AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE WITH MID AND UPPER 90F READINGS WITH SOME SPORADIC LOW 100S
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEING LIKELY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 100-105F RANGE BOTH AFTERNOONS.

RIDGE POSITIONING CONTINUES TO SLIDE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE
BIG BEND AS IT BECOMES FLATTER FROM STRONGER MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY GET SOME RAIN RELIEF FROM SOME PASSING
WEATHER SYSTEMS BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR THIS
REGION TO TAKE PART. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER... STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SET UP OVER THE REGION AND AID IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS EVEN FARTHER WEST.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE NW FLOW AS THE EC IS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE RUN-TO-RUN IN THE LONGER TERM WITH A STRONGER
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT COULD BRING THE FIRST DECENT FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  97  76  98  76 /  -   -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  96  74  97  74 /  -   10   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  98  75 /  -   10   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  74  97  75 /  -   -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  97  77  99  78 /  -   -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  95  75  97  76 /  -   -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  97  74  98  74 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  75  97  75 /  -   10   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  96  76  97  76 /  -   20  -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  76  98  77 /  10  10   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76  98  75  99  76 /  -   10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17




000
FXUS64 KFWD 040446
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1146 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST FOR NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BASED ON LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE KACT TAF FROM 11-14Z...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THAT AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN 06Z TAFS.

BRADSHAW

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY SOUTHEAST OF A TEMPLE TO CORSICANA TO CANTON LINE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY HOT DAYS AND CLEAR
MILD NIGHTS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND A FEW SPOTS MAY
REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER ARE 90 TO 94 DEGREES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... NEAR
SOUTHERN VANCOVER ISLAND/NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL DIG SOUTH AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DIG A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK....BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE RED RIVER NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY...AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
GOLDTHWAITE... HILLSBORO...EMORY LINE WEDNESDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  95  77  97  79 /   5   5   5  10   5
WACO, TX              74  95  75  97  76 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  94  73  96  75 /   5   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            74  95  75  97  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          75  94  75  95  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            78  95  79  97  80 /   5   5   5  10   5
TERRELL, TX           74  94  75  95  76 /   5   5   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  95  76  96  77 /  10  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  94  74  97  74 /  10  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  96  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 040446
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1146 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST FOR NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BASED ON LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE KACT TAF FROM 11-14Z...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THAT AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN 06Z TAFS.

BRADSHAW

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY SOUTHEAST OF A TEMPLE TO CORSICANA TO CANTON LINE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY HOT DAYS AND CLEAR
MILD NIGHTS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND A FEW SPOTS MAY
REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER ARE 90 TO 94 DEGREES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... NEAR
SOUTHERN VANCOVER ISLAND/NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL DIG SOUTH AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DIG A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK....BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE RED RIVER NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY...AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
GOLDTHWAITE... HILLSBORO...EMORY LINE WEDNESDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  95  77  97  79 /   5   5   5  10   5
WACO, TX              74  95  75  97  76 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  94  73  96  75 /   5   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            74  95  75  97  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          75  94  75  95  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            78  95  79  97  80 /   5   5   5  10   5
TERRELL, TX           74  94  75  95  76 /   5   5   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  95  76  96  77 /  10  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  94  74  97  74 /  10  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  96  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 040446
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1146 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST FOR NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BASED ON LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE KACT TAF FROM 11-14Z...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THAT AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN 06Z TAFS.

BRADSHAW

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY SOUTHEAST OF A TEMPLE TO CORSICANA TO CANTON LINE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY HOT DAYS AND CLEAR
MILD NIGHTS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND A FEW SPOTS MAY
REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER ARE 90 TO 94 DEGREES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... NEAR
SOUTHERN VANCOVER ISLAND/NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL DIG SOUTH AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DIG A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK....BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE RED RIVER NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY...AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
GOLDTHWAITE... HILLSBORO...EMORY LINE WEDNESDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  95  77  97  79 /   5   5   5  10   5
WACO, TX              74  95  75  97  76 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  94  73  96  75 /   5   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            74  95  75  97  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          75  94  75  95  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            78  95  79  97  80 /   5   5   5  10   5
TERRELL, TX           74  94  75  95  76 /   5   5   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  95  76  96  77 /  10  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  94  74  97  74 /  10  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  96  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 040446
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1146 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST FOR NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BASED ON LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...DID DECIDE TO INCLUDE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE KACT TAF FROM 11-14Z...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THAT AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN 06Z TAFS.

BRADSHAW

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY SOUTHEAST OF A TEMPLE TO CORSICANA TO CANTON LINE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY HOT DAYS AND CLEAR
MILD NIGHTS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND A FEW SPOTS MAY
REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER ARE 90 TO 94 DEGREES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... NEAR
SOUTHERN VANCOVER ISLAND/NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL DIG SOUTH AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DIG A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK....BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE RED RIVER NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY...AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
GOLDTHWAITE... HILLSBORO...EMORY LINE WEDNESDAY.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  95  77  97  79 /   5   5   5  10   5
WACO, TX              74  95  75  97  76 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  94  73  96  75 /   5   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            74  95  75  97  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          75  94  75  95  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            78  95  79  97  80 /   5   5   5  10   5
TERRELL, TX           74  94  75  95  76 /   5   5   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  95  76  96  77 /  10  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  94  74  97  74 /  10  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  96  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLUB 040428
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 05/06Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01



000
FXUS64 KLUB 040428
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 05/06Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01




000
FXUS64 KSJT 040403
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1103 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus is expected to develop at KJCT and KSOA around 12z,
resulting in MVFR ceilings. The stratus may approach KSJT and
KBBD, but confidence remains low, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions will return to all sites by late
morning. Light winds overnight will become southeast at 5 to 10
knots Friday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KJCT and KSOA around 12z, then
slowly spread north. Confidence remains low that it will reach
KSJT and KBBD, so for now these terminals were kept VFR. VFR
conditions will return to all sites by late morning Friday. Light
winds overnight will become southeast at 5 to 10 knots Friday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Still quiet in the short term, with high pressure aloft in control.
Despite a decent cumulus field this afternoon, temperatures have
climbed into the low to mid 90s areawide. There has been a little
vertical development in the Cu on satellite across the southern
sections, but nothing noted on radar and nothing really expected
this afternoon either. TTU WRF suggests a little more development on
Friday afternoon, with perhaps a very isolated shower or
thunderstorm developing. Given the coverage it notes, going to keep
the 10 PoPs in the forecast but not mention anything in the forecast
for now. Will monitor and see if it shows any better coverage.
Otherwise, more of the same for temperatures with little change in
air mass for now.

07

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Labor Day)

The long term forecast, through Labor Day, remains dry, with
afternoon highs still well above seasonal normals. Models
continue to develop an upper trough over the Pacific northwest.
By Labor Day, this trough will dominate the Central and Northern
Rockies. However, models continue to indicate the upper ridge,
which has been so persistent over Texas, won`t relinquish its
position; it actually will broaden toward the west. The thermal
ridge at 850mb will continue to expand into West Central Texas,
from the west, each afternoon. Thus, afternoon highs mainly in the
mid 90s to around 100 look likely, especially for Sunday afternoon
and Monday afternoon.

(Monday night through Thursday)

The upper pattern continues to evolve mid to late next week, as
the ridge aloft shifts to the west. Models continue in fairly good
agreement, with northwest flow aloft developing over West Central
Texas by mid week. With the potential for minor disturbances in
the northwest flow aloft, rain chance improve for the Tuesday
through Thursday periods. The only caveat is the GFS is not as
aggressive with QPF development as the ECMWF. The ECMWF actually
brings a surface trough, or weak back-door cold front, to a
location near the Red River by late weak. So, the best rain
chances for Thursday reflect this ECMWF solution. Afternoon highs
will also decrease to numbers closer to seasonal normals by
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  73  94  74 /   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  97  72  94  74 /   5   5  10   5
Junction  94  72  93  72 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels




000
FXUS64 KSJT 040403
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1103 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus is expected to develop at KJCT and KSOA around 12z,
resulting in MVFR ceilings. The stratus may approach KSJT and
KBBD, but confidence remains low, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions will return to all sites by late
morning. Light winds overnight will become southeast at 5 to 10
knots Friday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KJCT and KSOA around 12z, then
slowly spread north. Confidence remains low that it will reach
KSJT and KBBD, so for now these terminals were kept VFR. VFR
conditions will return to all sites by late morning Friday. Light
winds overnight will become southeast at 5 to 10 knots Friday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Still quiet in the short term, with high pressure aloft in control.
Despite a decent cumulus field this afternoon, temperatures have
climbed into the low to mid 90s areawide. There has been a little
vertical development in the Cu on satellite across the southern
sections, but nothing noted on radar and nothing really expected
this afternoon either. TTU WRF suggests a little more development on
Friday afternoon, with perhaps a very isolated shower or
thunderstorm developing. Given the coverage it notes, going to keep
the 10 PoPs in the forecast but not mention anything in the forecast
for now. Will monitor and see if it shows any better coverage.
Otherwise, more of the same for temperatures with little change in
air mass for now.

07

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Labor Day)

The long term forecast, through Labor Day, remains dry, with
afternoon highs still well above seasonal normals. Models
continue to develop an upper trough over the Pacific northwest.
By Labor Day, this trough will dominate the Central and Northern
Rockies. However, models continue to indicate the upper ridge,
which has been so persistent over Texas, won`t relinquish its
position; it actually will broaden toward the west. The thermal
ridge at 850mb will continue to expand into West Central Texas,
from the west, each afternoon. Thus, afternoon highs mainly in the
mid 90s to around 100 look likely, especially for Sunday afternoon
and Monday afternoon.

(Monday night through Thursday)

The upper pattern continues to evolve mid to late next week, as
the ridge aloft shifts to the west. Models continue in fairly good
agreement, with northwest flow aloft developing over West Central
Texas by mid week. With the potential for minor disturbances in
the northwest flow aloft, rain chance improve for the Tuesday
through Thursday periods. The only caveat is the GFS is not as
aggressive with QPF development as the ECMWF. The ECMWF actually
brings a surface trough, or weak back-door cold front, to a
location near the Red River by late weak. So, the best rain
chances for Thursday reflect this ECMWF solution. Afternoon highs
will also decrease to numbers closer to seasonal normals by
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  73  94  74 /   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  97  72  94  74 /   5   5  10   5
Junction  94  72  93  72 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels



000
FXUS64 KAMA 040221
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
921 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE FORMATION OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK ACROSS THE BORDER THIS EVENING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES...SO HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BTWN 10 TO 20 KTS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS AFT 04/14Z. A WEAK
TROUGH PASSING OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH ANOTHER EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AOA 10K FT AGL...BUT LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IS EXPECTED OVER TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPING BACK TO LAST EVENING
SHOWED A MARKED INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THESE TRENDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE EL PASO SOUNDINGS AND
SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO. TRACKING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
KEY IN DETERMINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY HAVE MINOR
INFLUENCE ON POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OR DEEPENING IS EXPECTED. THIS STEADY-STATE
FEATURE WILL GENERALLY BE POSITIONED FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN MAY REPOSITION SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BY LATE TOMORROW.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH MOIST MID LEVELS SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. FOR ANY OF THE
CONVECTION THAT MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL GIVEN TYPICAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SEEN IN THIS PATTERN
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A FAIRLY SIZABLE SURFACE MIXED
LAYER YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

3-6 KM THETA-E SHOWS THE MOISTURE PLUME WELL. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE AND SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING
EASTWARD SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY
REFOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS FURTHER WEST INTO NEW
MEXICO WHICH WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY TERRAIN INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS. AT THE VERY LEAST SOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID UPPER
CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MOIST PLUME AND HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD.

BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK AS DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE. A BLENDED APPROACH TO EXTENDED FORECAST
WAS ACCEPTED ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD ARE STILL QUITE LARGE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID WEEK INTO
LATE WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE PERIOD HAVING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THAN ANOTHER IS LOW BUT HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ON TUESDAY SINCE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES THEN. THEREAFTER CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW. ECMWF DEPICTS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE
IS ABSENT FROM THE GFS WHICH REMAINS MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MORE ELONGATED
WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
MODEL IS MORE ACCURATE...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS RETAINING AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

98/15




000
FXUS64 KAMA 040221
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
921 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE FORMATION OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK ACROSS THE BORDER THIS EVENING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES...SO HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BTWN 10 TO 20 KTS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS AFT 04/14Z. A WEAK
TROUGH PASSING OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH ANOTHER EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AOA 10K FT AGL...BUT LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IS EXPECTED OVER TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPING BACK TO LAST EVENING
SHOWED A MARKED INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THESE TRENDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE EL PASO SOUNDINGS AND
SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO. TRACKING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
KEY IN DETERMINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY HAVE MINOR
INFLUENCE ON POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OR DEEPENING IS EXPECTED. THIS STEADY-STATE
FEATURE WILL GENERALLY BE POSITIONED FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN MAY REPOSITION SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BY LATE TOMORROW.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH MOIST MID LEVELS SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. FOR ANY OF THE
CONVECTION THAT MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL GIVEN TYPICAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SEEN IN THIS PATTERN
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A FAIRLY SIZABLE SURFACE MIXED
LAYER YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

3-6 KM THETA-E SHOWS THE MOISTURE PLUME WELL. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE AND SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING
EASTWARD SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY
REFOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS FURTHER WEST INTO NEW
MEXICO WHICH WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY TERRAIN INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS. AT THE VERY LEAST SOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID UPPER
CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MOIST PLUME AND HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD.

BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK AS DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE. A BLENDED APPROACH TO EXTENDED FORECAST
WAS ACCEPTED ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD ARE STILL QUITE LARGE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID WEEK INTO
LATE WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE PERIOD HAVING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THAN ANOTHER IS LOW BUT HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ON TUESDAY SINCE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES THEN. THEREAFTER CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW. ECMWF DEPICTS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE
IS ABSENT FROM THE GFS WHICH REMAINS MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MORE ELONGATED
WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
MODEL IS MORE ACCURATE...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS RETAINING AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

98/15




000
FXUS64 KAMA 040221
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
921 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE FORMATION OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK ACROSS THE BORDER THIS EVENING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES...SO HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BTWN 10 TO 20 KTS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS AFT 04/14Z. A WEAK
TROUGH PASSING OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH ANOTHER EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AOA 10K FT AGL...BUT LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IS EXPECTED OVER TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPING BACK TO LAST EVENING
SHOWED A MARKED INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THESE TRENDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE EL PASO SOUNDINGS AND
SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO. TRACKING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
KEY IN DETERMINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY HAVE MINOR
INFLUENCE ON POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OR DEEPENING IS EXPECTED. THIS STEADY-STATE
FEATURE WILL GENERALLY BE POSITIONED FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN MAY REPOSITION SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BY LATE TOMORROW.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH MOIST MID LEVELS SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. FOR ANY OF THE
CONVECTION THAT MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL GIVEN TYPICAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SEEN IN THIS PATTERN
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A FAIRLY SIZABLE SURFACE MIXED
LAYER YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

3-6 KM THETA-E SHOWS THE MOISTURE PLUME WELL. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE AND SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING
EASTWARD SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY
REFOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS FURTHER WEST INTO NEW
MEXICO WHICH WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY TERRAIN INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS. AT THE VERY LEAST SOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID UPPER
CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MOIST PLUME AND HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD.

BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK AS DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE. A BLENDED APPROACH TO EXTENDED FORECAST
WAS ACCEPTED ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD ARE STILL QUITE LARGE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID WEEK INTO
LATE WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE PERIOD HAVING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THAN ANOTHER IS LOW BUT HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ON TUESDAY SINCE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES THEN. THEREAFTER CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW. ECMWF DEPICTS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE
IS ABSENT FROM THE GFS WHICH REMAINS MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MORE ELONGATED
WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
MODEL IS MORE ACCURATE...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS RETAINING AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

98/15




000
FXUS64 KAMA 040221
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
921 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE FORMATION OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK ACROSS THE BORDER THIS EVENING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES...SO HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BTWN 10 TO 20 KTS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS AFT 04/14Z. A WEAK
TROUGH PASSING OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH ANOTHER EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AOA 10K FT AGL...BUT LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IS EXPECTED OVER TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPING BACK TO LAST EVENING
SHOWED A MARKED INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THESE TRENDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE EL PASO SOUNDINGS AND
SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO. TRACKING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
KEY IN DETERMINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY HAVE MINOR
INFLUENCE ON POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OR DEEPENING IS EXPECTED. THIS STEADY-STATE
FEATURE WILL GENERALLY BE POSITIONED FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN MAY REPOSITION SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BY LATE TOMORROW.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH MOIST MID LEVELS SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. FOR ANY OF THE
CONVECTION THAT MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL GIVEN TYPICAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SEEN IN THIS PATTERN
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A FAIRLY SIZABLE SURFACE MIXED
LAYER YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

3-6 KM THETA-E SHOWS THE MOISTURE PLUME WELL. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE AND SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING
EASTWARD SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY
REFOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS FURTHER WEST INTO NEW
MEXICO WHICH WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY TERRAIN INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS. AT THE VERY LEAST SOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID UPPER
CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MOIST PLUME AND HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD.

BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK AS DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE. A BLENDED APPROACH TO EXTENDED FORECAST
WAS ACCEPTED ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD ARE STILL QUITE LARGE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID WEEK INTO
LATE WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE PERIOD HAVING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THAN ANOTHER IS LOW BUT HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ON TUESDAY SINCE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES THEN. THEREAFTER CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW. ECMWF DEPICTS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE
IS ABSENT FROM THE GFS WHICH REMAINS MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MORE ELONGATED
WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
MODEL IS MORE ACCURATE...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS RETAINING AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

98/15




000
FXUS64 KAMA 040221
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
921 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE FORMATION OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK ACROSS THE BORDER THIS EVENING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES...SO HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BTWN 10 TO 20 KTS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS AFT 04/14Z. A WEAK
TROUGH PASSING OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH ANOTHER EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AOA 10K FT AGL...BUT LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IS EXPECTED OVER TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPING BACK TO LAST EVENING
SHOWED A MARKED INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THESE TRENDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE EL PASO SOUNDINGS AND
SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO. TRACKING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
KEY IN DETERMINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY HAVE MINOR
INFLUENCE ON POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OR DEEPENING IS EXPECTED. THIS STEADY-STATE
FEATURE WILL GENERALLY BE POSITIONED FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN MAY REPOSITION SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BY LATE TOMORROW.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH MOIST MID LEVELS SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. FOR ANY OF THE
CONVECTION THAT MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL GIVEN TYPICAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SEEN IN THIS PATTERN
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A FAIRLY SIZABLE SURFACE MIXED
LAYER YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

3-6 KM THETA-E SHOWS THE MOISTURE PLUME WELL. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE AND SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING
EASTWARD SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY
REFOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS FURTHER WEST INTO NEW
MEXICO WHICH WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY TERRAIN INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS. AT THE VERY LEAST SOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID UPPER
CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MOIST PLUME AND HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD.

BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK AS DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE. A BLENDED APPROACH TO EXTENDED FORECAST
WAS ACCEPTED ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD ARE STILL QUITE LARGE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID WEEK INTO
LATE WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE PERIOD HAVING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THAN ANOTHER IS LOW BUT HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ON TUESDAY SINCE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES THEN. THEREAFTER CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW. ECMWF DEPICTS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE
IS ABSENT FROM THE GFS WHICH REMAINS MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MORE ELONGATED
WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
MODEL IS MORE ACCURATE...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS RETAINING AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

98/15




000
FXUS64 KAMA 040221
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
921 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE FORMATION OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK ACROSS THE BORDER THIS EVENING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES...SO HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MOISTURE NEAR
THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

BIEDA

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BTWN 10 TO 20 KTS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS AFT 04/14Z. A WEAK
TROUGH PASSING OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH ANOTHER EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW WILL BRING CLOUDS AOA 10K FT AGL...BUT LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IS EXPECTED OVER TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

BIEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPING BACK TO LAST EVENING
SHOWED A MARKED INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THESE TRENDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE EL PASO SOUNDINGS AND
SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO. TRACKING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE
KEY IN DETERMINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY HAVE MINOR
INFLUENCE ON POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OR DEEPENING IS EXPECTED. THIS STEADY-STATE
FEATURE WILL GENERALLY BE POSITIONED FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN MAY REPOSITION SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BY LATE TOMORROW.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH MOIST MID LEVELS SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. FOR ANY OF THE
CONVECTION THAT MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL GIVEN TYPICAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SEEN IN THIS PATTERN
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A FAIRLY SIZABLE SURFACE MIXED
LAYER YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

3-6 KM THETA-E SHOWS THE MOISTURE PLUME WELL. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE AND SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING
EASTWARD SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY
REFOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS FURTHER WEST INTO NEW
MEXICO WHICH WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY TERRAIN INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS. AT THE VERY LEAST SOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID UPPER
CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MOIST PLUME AND HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD.

BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK AS DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE. A BLENDED APPROACH TO EXTENDED FORECAST
WAS ACCEPTED ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD ARE STILL QUITE LARGE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID WEEK INTO
LATE WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE PERIOD HAVING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THAN ANOTHER IS LOW BUT HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ON TUESDAY SINCE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES THEN. THEREAFTER CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW. ECMWF DEPICTS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE
IS ABSENT FROM THE GFS WHICH REMAINS MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MORE ELONGATED
WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
MODEL IS MORE ACCURATE...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS RETAINING AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

98/15



000
FXUS64 KHGX 040213
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
913 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IS QUIET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO
TSTMS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING NEAR THE COAST. THESE WILL
EXPAND INLAND MID/LATE MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS INLAND AREAS. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DWINDLE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND MAY BE MORE OF
AN INFLUENCE TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THE AREA TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH
FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST AND HOUSTON AREA. THINK COVERAGE
WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY ESPECIALLY IF THE RIDGE BUILDS.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REALLY DECOUPLE AND HOW DEEP OF AN INVERSION
WILL BE ESTABLISHED. WILL MENTION MVFR TYPE VSBY FOR MOST AREAS
BUT WILL WATCH OBS CLOSELY. TAFS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED AT 06Z
FOR STRONGER MENTION OF LOWER VSBY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  10  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33



000
FXUS64 KHGX 040213
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
913 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR IS QUIET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO
TSTMS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING NEAR THE COAST. THESE WILL
EXPAND INLAND MID/LATE MORNING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS INLAND AREAS. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DWINDLE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND MAY BE MORE OF
AN INFLUENCE TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THE AREA TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH
FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST AND HOUSTON AREA. THINK COVERAGE
WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY ESPECIALLY IF THE RIDGE BUILDS.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REALLY DECOUPLE AND HOW DEEP OF AN INVERSION
WILL BE ESTABLISHED. WILL MENTION MVFR TYPE VSBY FOR MOST AREAS
BUT WILL WATCH OBS CLOSELY. TAFS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED AT 06Z
FOR STRONGER MENTION OF LOWER VSBY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  10  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33




000
FXUS64 KCRP 040011
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
711 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS STILL LINGER...BUT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
COULD SEE BRIEFLY MVFR CIGS FOR ALI AND VCT TOWARD MORNING. ALSO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR VISBY...BUT THINK THAT WOULD BE MAINLY VCT.
AGAIN...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
TOWARD THE COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE WOULD BE MOSTLY
A CONCERN FOR VCT AND CRP TAFS. SEA BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL BEND WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER LAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
MOVING MORE INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE TOMORROW. NOT EXPECTING
QUITE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTH AND RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0
INCHES) ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL
ZONES AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
LIMITED AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...SO THE RAIN CHANCES BECOME ISOLATED AT BEST OVER THE EAST
(WITH NO RAIN MENTIONED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS). BECAUSE OF THIS...
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS NOT VERY HIGH ANYWAY...BUT AFTER SATURDAY HAVE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...OFFSHORE. MODELS ARE KEYING ON
SOME WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD (MAINLY
TUESDAY)...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS AS I ONLY SEE A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH ELSE (GFS CAP IS WEAKER BUT ECMWF
CAP IS STILL STRONG). PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES EITHER IN THE GULF
OF AT BEST OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGES AS SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES. EXPECT MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS OR
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  79  93  77  /  20  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  93  75  94  74  /  20  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            76  99  78 101  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74  96  77  97  74  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  90  80  91  80  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           75  98  76 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  95  78  97  76  /  20  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  81  90  80  /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 040011
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
711 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS STILL LINGER...BUT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
COULD SEE BRIEFLY MVFR CIGS FOR ALI AND VCT TOWARD MORNING. ALSO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR VISBY...BUT THINK THAT WOULD BE MAINLY VCT.
AGAIN...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
TOWARD THE COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE WOULD BE MOSTLY
A CONCERN FOR VCT AND CRP TAFS. SEA BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL BEND WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER LAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
MOVING MORE INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE TOMORROW. NOT EXPECTING
QUITE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTH AND RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0
INCHES) ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL
ZONES AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
LIMITED AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...SO THE RAIN CHANCES BECOME ISOLATED AT BEST OVER THE EAST
(WITH NO RAIN MENTIONED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS). BECAUSE OF THIS...
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS NOT VERY HIGH ANYWAY...BUT AFTER SATURDAY HAVE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...OFFSHORE. MODELS ARE KEYING ON
SOME WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD (MAINLY
TUESDAY)...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS AS I ONLY SEE A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH ELSE (GFS CAP IS WEAKER BUT ECMWF
CAP IS STILL STRONG). PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES EITHER IN THE GULF
OF AT BEST OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGES AS SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES. EXPECT MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS OR
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  79  93  77  /  20  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  93  75  94  74  /  20  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            76  99  78 101  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74  96  77  97  74  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  90  80  91  80  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           75  98  76 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  95  78  97  76  /  20  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  81  90  80  /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 040011
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
711 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS STILL LINGER...BUT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
COULD SEE BRIEFLY MVFR CIGS FOR ALI AND VCT TOWARD MORNING. ALSO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR VISBY...BUT THINK THAT WOULD BE MAINLY VCT.
AGAIN...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
TOWARD THE COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE WOULD BE MOSTLY
A CONCERN FOR VCT AND CRP TAFS. SEA BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL BEND WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER LAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
MOVING MORE INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE TOMORROW. NOT EXPECTING
QUITE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTH AND RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0
INCHES) ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL
ZONES AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
LIMITED AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...SO THE RAIN CHANCES BECOME ISOLATED AT BEST OVER THE EAST
(WITH NO RAIN MENTIONED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS). BECAUSE OF THIS...
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS NOT VERY HIGH ANYWAY...BUT AFTER SATURDAY HAVE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...OFFSHORE. MODELS ARE KEYING ON
SOME WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD (MAINLY
TUESDAY)...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS AS I ONLY SEE A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH ELSE (GFS CAP IS WEAKER BUT ECMWF
CAP IS STILL STRONG). PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES EITHER IN THE GULF
OF AT BEST OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGES AS SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES. EXPECT MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS OR
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  79  93  77  /  20  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  93  75  94  74  /  20  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            76  99  78 101  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74  96  77  97  74  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  90  80  91  80  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           75  98  76 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  95  78  97  76  /  20  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  81  90  80  /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 040011
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
711 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS STILL LINGER...BUT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
COULD SEE BRIEFLY MVFR CIGS FOR ALI AND VCT TOWARD MORNING. ALSO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR VISBY...BUT THINK THAT WOULD BE MAINLY VCT.
AGAIN...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND MOVE
TOWARD THE COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE WOULD BE MOSTLY
A CONCERN FOR VCT AND CRP TAFS. SEA BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL BEND WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER LAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
MOVING MORE INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE TOMORROW. NOT EXPECTING
QUITE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTH AND RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0
INCHES) ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL
ZONES AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
LIMITED AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...SO THE RAIN CHANCES BECOME ISOLATED AT BEST OVER THE EAST
(WITH NO RAIN MENTIONED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS). BECAUSE OF THIS...
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS NOT VERY HIGH ANYWAY...BUT AFTER SATURDAY HAVE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...OFFSHORE. MODELS ARE KEYING ON
SOME WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD (MAINLY
TUESDAY)...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS AS I ONLY SEE A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH ELSE (GFS CAP IS WEAKER BUT ECMWF
CAP IS STILL STRONG). PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES EITHER IN THE GULF
OF AT BEST OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGES AS SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES. EXPECT MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS OR
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  79  93  77  /  20  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  93  75  94  74  /  20  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            76  99  78 101  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74  96  77  97  74  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  90  80  91  80  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           75  98  76 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  95  78  97  76  /  20  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  81  90  80  /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KFWD 040010
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
710 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z FRIDAY EVENING...AS
OUR QUASI-PERMANENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS...PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM NORTHEASTWARD OVER N TX TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...SCT AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES
BY 16Z FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL TX MAY BE
SUFFICIENT AFTER 18Z TO TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WACO VICINITY...BUT THEIR PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE LATEST TAF FOR
KACT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST AT ALL SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...AT SPEEDS OF 6-10KTS.

BRADSHAW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY SOUTHEAST OF A TEMPLE TO CORSICANA TO CANTON LINE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY HOT DAYS AND CLEAR
MILD NIGHTS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND A FEW SPOTS MAY
REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER ARE 90 TO 94 DEGREES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... NEAR
SOUTHERN VANCOVER ISLAND/NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL DIG SOUTH AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DIG A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK....BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE RED RIVER NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY...AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
GOLDTHWAITE... HILLSBORO...EMORY LINE WEDNESDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  77  97  79 /   5   5   5  10   5
WACO, TX              73  95  75  97  76 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             72  94  73  96  75 /   5   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            73  95  75  97  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  94  75  95  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  95  79  97  80 /   5   5   5  10   5
TERRELL, TX           74  94  75  95  76 /   5   5   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  95  76  96  77 /  10  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  94  74  97  74 /  10  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  96  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 040010
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
710 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z FRIDAY EVENING...AS
OUR QUASI-PERMANENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS...PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM NORTHEASTWARD OVER N TX TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...SCT AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES
BY 16Z FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL TX MAY BE
SUFFICIENT AFTER 18Z TO TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WACO VICINITY...BUT THEIR PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE LATEST TAF FOR
KACT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST AT ALL SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...AT SPEEDS OF 6-10KTS.

BRADSHAW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY SOUTHEAST OF A TEMPLE TO CORSICANA TO CANTON LINE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY HOT DAYS AND CLEAR
MILD NIGHTS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND A FEW SPOTS MAY
REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER ARE 90 TO 94 DEGREES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... NEAR
SOUTHERN VANCOVER ISLAND/NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL DIG SOUTH AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DIG A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK....BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE RED RIVER NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY...AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
GOLDTHWAITE... HILLSBORO...EMORY LINE WEDNESDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  77  97  79 /   5   5   5  10   5
WACO, TX              73  95  75  97  76 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             72  94  73  96  75 /   5   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            73  95  75  97  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  94  75  95  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  95  79  97  80 /   5   5   5  10   5
TERRELL, TX           74  94  75  95  76 /   5   5   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  95  76  96  77 /  10  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  94  74  97  74 /  10  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  96  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 040010
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
710 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z FRIDAY EVENING...AS
OUR QUASI-PERMANENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS...PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM NORTHEASTWARD OVER N TX TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...SCT AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL REDEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES
BY 16Z FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL TX MAY BE
SUFFICIENT AFTER 18Z TO TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WACO VICINITY...BUT THEIR PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE LATEST TAF FOR
KACT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST AT ALL SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...AT SPEEDS OF 6-10KTS.

BRADSHAW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY SOUTHEAST OF A TEMPLE TO CORSICANA TO CANTON LINE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY HOT DAYS AND CLEAR
MILD NIGHTS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND A FEW SPOTS MAY
REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER ARE 90 TO 94 DEGREES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... NEAR
SOUTHERN VANCOVER ISLAND/NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL DIG SOUTH AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DIG A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK....BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE RED RIVER NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY...AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
GOLDTHWAITE... HILLSBORO...EMORY LINE WEDNESDAY.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  77  97  79 /   5   5   5  10   5
WACO, TX              73  95  75  97  76 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             72  94  73  96  75 /   5   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            73  95  75  97  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  94  75  95  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  95  79  97  80 /   5   5   5  10   5
TERRELL, TX           74  94  75  95  76 /   5   5   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  95  76  96  77 /  10  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  94  74  97  74 /  10  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  96  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 040009
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
709 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DWINDLE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND MAY BE MORE OF
AN INFLUENCE TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THE AREA TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH
FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST AND HOUSTON AREA. THINK COVERAGE
WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY ESPECIALLY IF THE RIDGE BUILDS.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REALLY DECOUPLE AND HOW DEEP OF AN INVERSION
WILL BE ESTABLISHED. WILL MENTION MVFR TYPE VSBY FOR MOST AREAS
BUT WILL WATCH OBS CLOSELY. TAFS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED AT 06Z
FOR STRONGER MENTION OF LOWER VSBY.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX AND PRECIP IS
AGAIN EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET. HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS EARLY FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.10 INCHES ON FRIDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 89-90 DEGREES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO SE TX. AM STILL EXPECTING SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE STATE. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND SO CAN`T RULE OUT ISO/SCT
SHRA ACTIVITY BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE NW ZONES AND MID
90S OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST BUT
NEVER GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SE TX TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE AS HEIGHTS FALL. MOISTURE LEVELS
DROP TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A SERIES OF
S/WVS INTO THE REGION THAT HELP TO CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO SE TX THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST AND ALSO MAINTAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT SOME
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IT`S A LONG WAY OFF SO JUST BLENDED
THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 43

MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR WEAK ONSHORE WINDS OVER LOW
SEAS/EARLY DAY CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AVERAGE SOUTHERLIES AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS...SMOOTH
BAY WATERS WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 FOOT OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR BOATERS AND BEACH GO`ERS TO EXPERIENCE
A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LABOR DAY. NEXT WORK WEEK
STORM CHANCES MAY GO UP IF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL GULF PROPAGATES WESTWARD. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...39



000
FXUS64 KHGX 040009
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
709 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DWINDLE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAY
TIME HEATING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO MEXICO TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND MAY BE MORE OF
AN INFLUENCE TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THE AREA TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCSH
FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST AND HOUSTON AREA. THINK COVERAGE
WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY ESPECIALLY IF THE RIDGE BUILDS.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF FOG. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REALLY DECOUPLE AND HOW DEEP OF AN INVERSION
WILL BE ESTABLISHED. WILL MENTION MVFR TYPE VSBY FOR MOST AREAS
BUT WILL WATCH OBS CLOSELY. TAFS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED AT 06Z
FOR STRONGER MENTION OF LOWER VSBY.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX AND PRECIP IS
AGAIN EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET. HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS EARLY FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.10 INCHES ON FRIDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 89-90 DEGREES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO SE TX. AM STILL EXPECTING SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE STATE. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND SO CAN`T RULE OUT ISO/SCT
SHRA ACTIVITY BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE NW ZONES AND MID
90S OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST BUT
NEVER GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SE TX TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE AS HEIGHTS FALL. MOISTURE LEVELS
DROP TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A SERIES OF
S/WVS INTO THE REGION THAT HELP TO CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO SE TX THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST AND ALSO MAINTAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT SOME
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IT`S A LONG WAY OFF SO JUST BLENDED
THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 43

MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR WEAK ONSHORE WINDS OVER LOW
SEAS/EARLY DAY CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AVERAGE SOUTHERLIES AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS...SMOOTH
BAY WATERS WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 FOOT OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR BOATERS AND BEACH GO`ERS TO EXPERIENCE
A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LABOR DAY. NEXT WORK WEEK
STORM CHANCES MAY GO UP IF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL GULF PROPAGATES WESTWARD. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KEWX 032350
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR BASTROP COULD MOVE INTO THE AUS VCNTY IN THE
NEXT HOUR...BUT WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LASTING ONLY 30 MINUTES
TO 1 HOUR...WILL HOLD OFF MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS NOTED ON 24-HOUR SURFACE OB TRENDS COMBINED WITH
THE INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE AGRESSIVE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE INTRODUCED
SMALL PERIODS OR TEMPOS OF IFR CIGS ALONG I-35 AROUND
DAYBREAK...AS IFR CIGS WERE NOTED IN A FEW AREAS BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING AS WELL. SOME EXTRA TAF PERIODS WERE INCLUDED MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS THAT CAN OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 12
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY SOME
WELCOMED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED
COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS TIME WINDOW.

SHALLOW LOW-LVL BUOYANCY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF IS AIDING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY IS BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AND MID TO LOW-
LVL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. THIS COMBINATION OF THERMODYNAMICS IS
NOT ALLOWING FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AS THERE IS ALSO A WARM NOSE
AROUND 500 MB AS SUGGESTED BY NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS. ALL THESE
FACTORS COMBINED SHOULD LIMIT THUNDER POSSIBILITIES. HAVE PLACED
SHOWER WORDING AS THE DOMINATE WEATHER TYPE THROUGH 8PM WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
RESTABLIZATION.

FOR FRIDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER 500MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALL WAY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AGAIN...THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

ONLY SMALL TO NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH
A RIDGE BUILDING IN. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH INTO THE
100-105F DEGREE RANGE FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS NOW WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH TOWARDS THIS AREA. OTHER THAN SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE FAR SE...SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND
RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY 10-20% AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE WITH MID AND UPPER 90F READINGS WITH SOME SPORADIC LOW 100S
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEING LIKELY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 100-105F RANGE BOTH AFTERNOONS.

RIDGE POSITIONING CONTINUES TO SLIDE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE
BIG BEND AS IT BECOMES FLATTER FROM STRONGER MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY GET SOME RAIN RELIEF FROM SOME PASSING
WEATHER SYSTEMS BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR THIS
REGION TO TAKE PART. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER... STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SET UP OVER THE REGION AND AID IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS EVEN FARTHER WEST.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE NW FLOW AS THE EC IS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE RUN-TO-RUN IN THE LONGER TERM WITH A STRONGER
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT COULD BRING THE FIRST DECENT FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  95  76  97  76 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  93  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  95  75  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  74  95  74 /  10  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  97  77  97  77 /  10  20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  94  75  95  75 /  10  20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  96  75  97  74 /  10  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  76  96  75 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  93  76  96  76 /  30  20  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  95  77  96  76 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  96  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY



000
FXUS64 KEWX 032350
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR BASTROP COULD MOVE INTO THE AUS VCNTY IN THE
NEXT HOUR...BUT WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LASTING ONLY 30 MINUTES
TO 1 HOUR...WILL HOLD OFF MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS NOTED ON 24-HOUR SURFACE OB TRENDS COMBINED WITH
THE INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE AGRESSIVE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE INTRODUCED
SMALL PERIODS OR TEMPOS OF IFR CIGS ALONG I-35 AROUND
DAYBREAK...AS IFR CIGS WERE NOTED IN A FEW AREAS BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING AS WELL. SOME EXTRA TAF PERIODS WERE INCLUDED MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS THAT CAN OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 12
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY SOME
WELCOMED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED
COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS TIME WINDOW.

SHALLOW LOW-LVL BUOYANCY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF IS AIDING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY IS BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AND MID TO LOW-
LVL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. THIS COMBINATION OF THERMODYNAMICS IS
NOT ALLOWING FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AS THERE IS ALSO A WARM NOSE
AROUND 500 MB AS SUGGESTED BY NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS. ALL THESE
FACTORS COMBINED SHOULD LIMIT THUNDER POSSIBILITIES. HAVE PLACED
SHOWER WORDING AS THE DOMINATE WEATHER TYPE THROUGH 8PM WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
RESTABLIZATION.

FOR FRIDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER 500MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALL WAY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AGAIN...THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

ONLY SMALL TO NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH
A RIDGE BUILDING IN. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH INTO THE
100-105F DEGREE RANGE FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS NOW WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH TOWARDS THIS AREA. OTHER THAN SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE FAR SE...SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND
RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY 10-20% AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE WITH MID AND UPPER 90F READINGS WITH SOME SPORADIC LOW 100S
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEING LIKELY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 100-105F RANGE BOTH AFTERNOONS.

RIDGE POSITIONING CONTINUES TO SLIDE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE
BIG BEND AS IT BECOMES FLATTER FROM STRONGER MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY GET SOME RAIN RELIEF FROM SOME PASSING
WEATHER SYSTEMS BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR THIS
REGION TO TAKE PART. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER... STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SET UP OVER THE REGION AND AID IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS EVEN FARTHER WEST.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE NW FLOW AS THE EC IS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE RUN-TO-RUN IN THE LONGER TERM WITH A STRONGER
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT COULD BRING THE FIRST DECENT FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  95  76  97  76 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  93  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  95  75  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  74  95  74 /  10  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  97  77  97  77 /  10  20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  94  75  95  75 /  10  20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  96  75  97  74 /  10  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  76  96  75 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  93  76  96  76 /  30  20  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  95  77  96  76 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  96  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY



000
FXUS64 KEWX 032350
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR BASTROP COULD MOVE INTO THE AUS VCNTY IN THE
NEXT HOUR...BUT WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LASTING ONLY 30 MINUTES
TO 1 HOUR...WILL HOLD OFF MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS NOTED ON 24-HOUR SURFACE OB TRENDS COMBINED WITH
THE INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE AGRESSIVE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE INTRODUCED
SMALL PERIODS OR TEMPOS OF IFR CIGS ALONG I-35 AROUND
DAYBREAK...AS IFR CIGS WERE NOTED IN A FEW AREAS BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING AS WELL. SOME EXTRA TAF PERIODS WERE INCLUDED MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS THAT CAN OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 12
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY SOME
WELCOMED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED
COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS TIME WINDOW.

SHALLOW LOW-LVL BUOYANCY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF IS AIDING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY IS BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AND MID TO LOW-
LVL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. THIS COMBINATION OF THERMODYNAMICS IS
NOT ALLOWING FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AS THERE IS ALSO A WARM NOSE
AROUND 500 MB AS SUGGESTED BY NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS. ALL THESE
FACTORS COMBINED SHOULD LIMIT THUNDER POSSIBILITIES. HAVE PLACED
SHOWER WORDING AS THE DOMINATE WEATHER TYPE THROUGH 8PM WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
RESTABLIZATION.

FOR FRIDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER 500MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALL WAY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AGAIN...THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

ONLY SMALL TO NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH
A RIDGE BUILDING IN. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH INTO THE
100-105F DEGREE RANGE FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS NOW WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH TOWARDS THIS AREA. OTHER THAN SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE FAR SE...SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND
RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY 10-20% AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE WITH MID AND UPPER 90F READINGS WITH SOME SPORADIC LOW 100S
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEING LIKELY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 100-105F RANGE BOTH AFTERNOONS.

RIDGE POSITIONING CONTINUES TO SLIDE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE
BIG BEND AS IT BECOMES FLATTER FROM STRONGER MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY GET SOME RAIN RELIEF FROM SOME PASSING
WEATHER SYSTEMS BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR THIS
REGION TO TAKE PART. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER... STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SET UP OVER THE REGION AND AID IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS EVEN FARTHER WEST.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE NW FLOW AS THE EC IS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE RUN-TO-RUN IN THE LONGER TERM WITH A STRONGER
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT COULD BRING THE FIRST DECENT FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  95  76  97  76 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  93  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  95  75  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  74  95  74 /  10  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  97  77  97  77 /  10  20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  94  75  95  75 /  10  20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  96  75  97  74 /  10  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  76  96  75 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  93  76  96  76 /  30  20  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  95  77  96  76 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  96  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY



000
FXUS64 KEWX 032350
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR BASTROP COULD MOVE INTO THE AUS VCNTY IN THE
NEXT HOUR...BUT WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LASTING ONLY 30 MINUTES
TO 1 HOUR...WILL HOLD OFF MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS NOTED ON 24-HOUR SURFACE OB TRENDS COMBINED WITH
THE INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE AGRESSIVE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE INTRODUCED
SMALL PERIODS OR TEMPOS OF IFR CIGS ALONG I-35 AROUND
DAYBREAK...AS IFR CIGS WERE NOTED IN A FEW AREAS BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING AS WELL. SOME EXTRA TAF PERIODS WERE INCLUDED MAINLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS THAT CAN OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 12
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY SOME
WELCOMED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED
COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS TIME WINDOW.

SHALLOW LOW-LVL BUOYANCY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF IS AIDING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY IS BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AND MID TO LOW-
LVL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. THIS COMBINATION OF THERMODYNAMICS IS
NOT ALLOWING FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AS THERE IS ALSO A WARM NOSE
AROUND 500 MB AS SUGGESTED BY NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS. ALL THESE
FACTORS COMBINED SHOULD LIMIT THUNDER POSSIBILITIES. HAVE PLACED
SHOWER WORDING AS THE DOMINATE WEATHER TYPE THROUGH 8PM WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
RESTABLIZATION.

FOR FRIDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER 500MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALL WAY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AGAIN...THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

ONLY SMALL TO NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH
A RIDGE BUILDING IN. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH INTO THE
100-105F DEGREE RANGE FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS NOW WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH TOWARDS THIS AREA. OTHER THAN SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE FAR SE...SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND
RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY 10-20% AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE WITH MID AND UPPER 90F READINGS WITH SOME SPORADIC LOW 100S
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEING LIKELY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 100-105F RANGE BOTH AFTERNOONS.

RIDGE POSITIONING CONTINUES TO SLIDE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE
BIG BEND AS IT BECOMES FLATTER FROM STRONGER MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY GET SOME RAIN RELIEF FROM SOME PASSING
WEATHER SYSTEMS BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR THIS
REGION TO TAKE PART. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER... STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SET UP OVER THE REGION AND AID IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS EVEN FARTHER WEST.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE NW FLOW AS THE EC IS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE RUN-TO-RUN IN THE LONGER TERM WITH A STRONGER
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT COULD BRING THE FIRST DECENT FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  95  76  97  76 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  93  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  95  75  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  74  95  74 /  10  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  97  77  97  77 /  10  20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  94  75  95  75 /  10  20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  96  75  97  74 /  10  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  76  96  75 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  93  76  96  76 /  30  20  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  95  77  96  76 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  96  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY



000
FXUS64 KLUB 032342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 05/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/




000
FXUS64 KLUB 032342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 05/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/




000
FXUS64 KLUB 032342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 05/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/




000
FXUS64 KLUB 032342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 05/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/




000
FXUS64 KLUB 032342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 05/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/



000
FXUS64 KLUB 032342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 05/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/




000
FXUS64 KMAF 032310
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southeast winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to be the dominant feature over the
forecast area through the weekend which will result in high
temperatures remaining above normal.  However, a plume of mid and
upper level moisture will continue to impinge upon the higher
terrain, and allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, and again Friday.  Surface dewpoints are only
marginally sufficient for convective development, but there will be
a modest uptick from the previous couple of days.  The mentioned
plume of moisture will spread northward over the weekend, while
the ua ridge will build a little further westward.  Will still
carry a low chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain both
days though as surface dewpoints will continue to rise.  Any
storms that develop through the weekend will be capable of gusty
winds, due to a dry subcloud layer, and at least brief heavy
rainfall.

Not much will change Monday and Tuesday, but an upper trough
currently over the northwestern ConUS will eject northeastward late
this weekend, with another shortwave trough translating eastward
over the northern U.S. Plains through mid next week.  This should
weaken the upper ridge over the region, and possibly result in a
better chance of rain as a cold front is progged to drop south into
west Texas.  Will carry at least a low order chance of thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures will end up near normal if the
front makes it into the area, or be several degrees below normal if
convection aids a better push of cooler air southward.  Will likely
stay on the warm side of guidance until it becomes more clear on how
far south the front moves.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10




000
FXUS64 KMAF 032310
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southeast winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to be the dominant feature over the
forecast area through the weekend which will result in high
temperatures remaining above normal.  However, a plume of mid and
upper level moisture will continue to impinge upon the higher
terrain, and allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, and again Friday.  Surface dewpoints are only
marginally sufficient for convective development, but there will be
a modest uptick from the previous couple of days.  The mentioned
plume of moisture will spread northward over the weekend, while
the ua ridge will build a little further westward.  Will still
carry a low chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain both
days though as surface dewpoints will continue to rise.  Any
storms that develop through the weekend will be capable of gusty
winds, due to a dry subcloud layer, and at least brief heavy
rainfall.

Not much will change Monday and Tuesday, but an upper trough
currently over the northwestern ConUS will eject northeastward late
this weekend, with another shortwave trough translating eastward
over the northern U.S. Plains through mid next week.  This should
weaken the upper ridge over the region, and possibly result in a
better chance of rain as a cold front is progged to drop south into
west Texas.  Will carry at least a low order chance of thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures will end up near normal if the
front makes it into the area, or be several degrees below normal if
convection aids a better push of cooler air southward.  Will likely
stay on the warm side of guidance until it becomes more clear on how
far south the front moves.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10



000
FXUS64 KMAF 032310
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southeast winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to be the dominant feature over the
forecast area through the weekend which will result in high
temperatures remaining above normal.  However, a plume of mid and
upper level moisture will continue to impinge upon the higher
terrain, and allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, and again Friday.  Surface dewpoints are only
marginally sufficient for convective development, but there will be
a modest uptick from the previous couple of days.  The mentioned
plume of moisture will spread northward over the weekend, while
the ua ridge will build a little further westward.  Will still
carry a low chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain both
days though as surface dewpoints will continue to rise.  Any
storms that develop through the weekend will be capable of gusty
winds, due to a dry subcloud layer, and at least brief heavy
rainfall.

Not much will change Monday and Tuesday, but an upper trough
currently over the northwestern ConUS will eject northeastward late
this weekend, with another shortwave trough translating eastward
over the northern U.S. Plains through mid next week.  This should
weaken the upper ridge over the region, and possibly result in a
better chance of rain as a cold front is progged to drop south into
west Texas.  Will carry at least a low order chance of thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures will end up near normal if the
front makes it into the area, or be several degrees below normal if
convection aids a better push of cooler air southward.  Will likely
stay on the warm side of guidance until it becomes more clear on how
far south the front moves.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10



000
FXUS64 KMAF 032310
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southeast winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to be the dominant feature over the
forecast area through the weekend which will result in high
temperatures remaining above normal.  However, a plume of mid and
upper level moisture will continue to impinge upon the higher
terrain, and allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, and again Friday.  Surface dewpoints are only
marginally sufficient for convective development, but there will be
a modest uptick from the previous couple of days.  The mentioned
plume of moisture will spread northward over the weekend, while
the ua ridge will build a little further westward.  Will still
carry a low chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain both
days though as surface dewpoints will continue to rise.  Any
storms that develop through the weekend will be capable of gusty
winds, due to a dry subcloud layer, and at least brief heavy
rainfall.

Not much will change Monday and Tuesday, but an upper trough
currently over the northwestern ConUS will eject northeastward late
this weekend, with another shortwave trough translating eastward
over the northern U.S. Plains through mid next week.  This should
weaken the upper ridge over the region, and possibly result in a
better chance of rain as a cold front is progged to drop south into
west Texas.  Will carry at least a low order chance of thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures will end up near normal if the
front makes it into the area, or be several degrees below normal if
convection aids a better push of cooler air southward.  Will likely
stay on the warm side of guidance until it becomes more clear on how
far south the front moves.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10




000
FXUS64 KSJT 032309
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
609 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KJCT and KSOA around 12z, then
slowly spread north. Confidence remains low that it will reach
KSJT and KBBD, so for now these terminals were kept VFR. VFR
conditions will return to all sites by late morning Friday. Light
winds overnight will become southeast at 5 to 10 knots Friday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Still quiet in the short term, with high pressure aloft in control.
Despite a decent cumulus field this afternoon, temperatures have
climbed into the low to mid 90s areawide. There has been a little
vertical development in the Cu on satellite across the southern
sections, but nothing noted on radar and nothing really expected
this afternoon either. TTU WRF suggests a little more development on
Friday afternoon, with perhaps a very isolated shower or
thunderstorm developing. Given the coverage it notes, going to keep
the 10 PoPs in the forecast but not mention anything in the forecast
for now. Will monitor and see if it shows any better coverage.
Otherwise, more of the same for temperatures with little change in
air mass for now.

07

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Labor Day)

The long term forecast, through Labor Day, remains dry, with
afternoon highs still well above seasonal normals. Models
continue to develop an upper trough over the Pacific northwest.
By Labor Day, this trough will dominate the Central and Northern
Rockies. However, models continue to indicate the upper ridge,
which has been so persistent over Texas, won`t relinquish its
position; it actually will broaden toward the west. The thermal
ridge at 850mb will continue to expand into West Central Texas,
from the west, each afternoon. Thus, afternoon highs mainly in the
mid 90s to around 100 look likely, especially for Sunday afternoon
and Monday afternoon.

(Monday night through Thursday)

The upper pattern continues to evolve mid to late next week, as
the ridge aloft shifts to the west. Models continue in fairly good
agreement, with northwest flow aloft developing over West Central
Texas by mid week. With the potential for minor disturbances in
the northwest flow aloft, rain chance improve for the Tuesday
through Thursday periods. The only caveat is the GFS is not as
aggressive with QPF development as the ECMWF. The ECMWF actually
brings a surface trough, or weak back-door cold front, to a
location near the Red River by late weak. So, the best rain
chances for Thursday reflect this ECMWF solution. Afternoon highs
will also decrease to numbers closer to seasonal normals by
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  94  74  95 /   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  72  94  74  95 /   5  10   5   5
Junction  72  93  72  94 /   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels




000
FXUS64 KSJT 032309
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
609 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KJCT and KSOA around 12z, then
slowly spread north. Confidence remains low that it will reach
KSJT and KBBD, so for now these terminals were kept VFR. VFR
conditions will return to all sites by late morning Friday. Light
winds overnight will become southeast at 5 to 10 knots Friday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Still quiet in the short term, with high pressure aloft in control.
Despite a decent cumulus field this afternoon, temperatures have
climbed into the low to mid 90s areawide. There has been a little
vertical development in the Cu on satellite across the southern
sections, but nothing noted on radar and nothing really expected
this afternoon either. TTU WRF suggests a little more development on
Friday afternoon, with perhaps a very isolated shower or
thunderstorm developing. Given the coverage it notes, going to keep
the 10 PoPs in the forecast but not mention anything in the forecast
for now. Will monitor and see if it shows any better coverage.
Otherwise, more of the same for temperatures with little change in
air mass for now.

07

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Labor Day)

The long term forecast, through Labor Day, remains dry, with
afternoon highs still well above seasonal normals. Models
continue to develop an upper trough over the Pacific northwest.
By Labor Day, this trough will dominate the Central and Northern
Rockies. However, models continue to indicate the upper ridge,
which has been so persistent over Texas, won`t relinquish its
position; it actually will broaden toward the west. The thermal
ridge at 850mb will continue to expand into West Central Texas,
from the west, each afternoon. Thus, afternoon highs mainly in the
mid 90s to around 100 look likely, especially for Sunday afternoon
and Monday afternoon.

(Monday night through Thursday)

The upper pattern continues to evolve mid to late next week, as
the ridge aloft shifts to the west. Models continue in fairly good
agreement, with northwest flow aloft developing over West Central
Texas by mid week. With the potential for minor disturbances in
the northwest flow aloft, rain chance improve for the Tuesday
through Thursday periods. The only caveat is the GFS is not as
aggressive with QPF development as the ECMWF. The ECMWF actually
brings a surface trough, or weak back-door cold front, to a
location near the Red River by late weak. So, the best rain
chances for Thursday reflect this ECMWF solution. Afternoon highs
will also decrease to numbers closer to seasonal normals by
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  94  74  95 /   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  72  94  74  95 /   5  10   5   5
Junction  72  93  72  94 /   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels



000
FXUS64 KSJT 032309
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
609 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop at KJCT and KSOA around 12z, then
slowly spread north. Confidence remains low that it will reach
KSJT and KBBD, so for now these terminals were kept VFR. VFR
conditions will return to all sites by late morning Friday. Light
winds overnight will become southeast at 5 to 10 knots Friday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Still quiet in the short term, with high pressure aloft in control.
Despite a decent cumulus field this afternoon, temperatures have
climbed into the low to mid 90s areawide. There has been a little
vertical development in the Cu on satellite across the southern
sections, but nothing noted on radar and nothing really expected
this afternoon either. TTU WRF suggests a little more development on
Friday afternoon, with perhaps a very isolated shower or
thunderstorm developing. Given the coverage it notes, going to keep
the 10 PoPs in the forecast but not mention anything in the forecast
for now. Will monitor and see if it shows any better coverage.
Otherwise, more of the same for temperatures with little change in
air mass for now.

07

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Labor Day)

The long term forecast, through Labor Day, remains dry, with
afternoon highs still well above seasonal normals. Models
continue to develop an upper trough over the Pacific northwest.
By Labor Day, this trough will dominate the Central and Northern
Rockies. However, models continue to indicate the upper ridge,
which has been so persistent over Texas, won`t relinquish its
position; it actually will broaden toward the west. The thermal
ridge at 850mb will continue to expand into West Central Texas,
from the west, each afternoon. Thus, afternoon highs mainly in the
mid 90s to around 100 look likely, especially for Sunday afternoon
and Monday afternoon.

(Monday night through Thursday)

The upper pattern continues to evolve mid to late next week, as
the ridge aloft shifts to the west. Models continue in fairly good
agreement, with northwest flow aloft developing over West Central
Texas by mid week. With the potential for minor disturbances in
the northwest flow aloft, rain chance improve for the Tuesday
through Thursday periods. The only caveat is the GFS is not as
aggressive with QPF development as the ECMWF. The ECMWF actually
brings a surface trough, or weak back-door cold front, to a
location near the Red River by late weak. So, the best rain
chances for Thursday reflect this ECMWF solution. Afternoon highs
will also decrease to numbers closer to seasonal normals by
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  94  74  95 /   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  72  94  74  95 /   5  10   5   5
Junction  72  93  72  94 /   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels



000
FXUS64 KAMA 032305 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
605 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPING BACK TO LAST EVENING SHOWED A MARKED
INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THESE
TRENDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE EL PASO SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. TRACKING THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY HAVE MINOR
INFLUENCE ON POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OR DEEPENING IS EXPECTED. THIS STEADY-STATE
FEATURE WILL GENERALLY BE POSITIONED FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN MAY REPOSITION SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BY LATE TOMORROW.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH MOIST MID LEVELS SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. FOR ANY OF THE
CONVECTION THAT MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL GIVEN TYPICAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SEEN IN THIS PATTERN
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A FAIRLY SIZABLE SURFACE MIXED
LAYER YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

3-6 KM THETA-E SHOWS THE MOISTURE PLUME WELL. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE AND SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING
EASTWARD SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY
REFOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS FURTHER WEST INTO NEW
MEXICO WHICH WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY TERRAIN INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS. AT THE VERY LEAST SOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID UPPER
CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MOIST PLUME AND HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD.

BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK AS DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE. A BLENDED APPROACH TO EXTENDED FORECAST
WAS ACCEPTED ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD ARE STILL QUITE LARGE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID WEEK INTO
LATE WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE PERIOD HAVING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THAN ANOTHER IS LOW BUT HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ON TUESDAY SINCE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES THEN. THEREAFTER CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW. ECMWF DEPICTS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE
IS ABSENT FROM THE GFS WHICH REMAINS MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MORE ELONGATED
WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
MODEL IS MORE ACCURATE...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS RETAINING AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION.

BRB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BTWN 15 TO 25 KTS
WILL PERSIST AT TAF SITES THRU 04/02Z BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BTWN 10
TO 20 KTS AFT 04/02Z.  CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD NEAR AND ALONG SFC TROUGH
MAY ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO FIRE NEAR KDHT...BUT COVERAGE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN TAF.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 10K FT AGL WILL OCCUR WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS BTWN 15 TO 25 KTS RETURNING AFT 04/16Z.  BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                65  94  67  92  68 /   5   5   5   5  10
BEAVER OK                  69  98  71  97  71 /   5   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  94  65  92  64 /  20  10  10  20  20
BORGER TX                  69  97  71  95  72 /   5   5   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              68  95  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  65  93  66  92  67 /  10   5   5  10   5
CLARENDON TX               68  94  68  94  67 /   5   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 62  94  67  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  66  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10  20
HEREFORD TX                66  93  66  91  67 /  10  10   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                69  96  70  95  70 /   5   5   5   5   5
PAMPA TX                   67  93  69  92  69 /   5   5   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                67  95  69  95  68 /   5   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              67  96  70  96  69 /   5   0   5   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/98




000
FXUS64 KAMA 032305 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
605 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPING BACK TO LAST EVENING SHOWED A MARKED
INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THESE
TRENDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE EL PASO SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. TRACKING THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY HAVE MINOR
INFLUENCE ON POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OR DEEPENING IS EXPECTED. THIS STEADY-STATE
FEATURE WILL GENERALLY BE POSITIONED FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN MAY REPOSITION SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BY LATE TOMORROW.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH MOIST MID LEVELS SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. FOR ANY OF THE
CONVECTION THAT MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL GIVEN TYPICAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SEEN IN THIS PATTERN
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A FAIRLY SIZABLE SURFACE MIXED
LAYER YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

3-6 KM THETA-E SHOWS THE MOISTURE PLUME WELL. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE AND SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING
EASTWARD SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY
REFOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS FURTHER WEST INTO NEW
MEXICO WHICH WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY TERRAIN INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS. AT THE VERY LEAST SOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID UPPER
CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MOIST PLUME AND HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD.

BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK AS DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE. A BLENDED APPROACH TO EXTENDED FORECAST
WAS ACCEPTED ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD ARE STILL QUITE LARGE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID WEEK INTO
LATE WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE PERIOD HAVING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THAN ANOTHER IS LOW BUT HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ON TUESDAY SINCE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES THEN. THEREAFTER CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW. ECMWF DEPICTS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE
IS ABSENT FROM THE GFS WHICH REMAINS MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MORE ELONGATED
WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
MODEL IS MORE ACCURATE...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS RETAINING AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION.

BRB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BTWN 15 TO 25 KTS
WILL PERSIST AT TAF SITES THRU 04/02Z BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BTWN 10
TO 20 KTS AFT 04/02Z.  CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD NEAR AND ALONG SFC TROUGH
MAY ALLOW A STORM OR TWO TO FIRE NEAR KDHT...BUT COVERAGE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN TAF.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AOA 10K FT AGL WILL OCCUR WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS BTWN 15 TO 25 KTS RETURNING AFT 04/16Z.  BIEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                65  94  67  92  68 /   5   5   5   5  10
BEAVER OK                  69  98  71  97  71 /   5   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  94  65  92  64 /  20  10  10  20  20
BORGER TX                  69  97  71  95  72 /   5   5   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              68  95  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  65  93  66  92  67 /  10   5   5  10   5
CLARENDON TX               68  94  68  94  67 /   5   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 62  94  67  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  66  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10  20
HEREFORD TX                66  93  66  91  67 /  10  10   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                69  96  70  95  70 /   5   5   5   5   5
PAMPA TX                   67  93  69  92  69 /   5   5   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                67  95  69  95  68 /   5   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              67  96  70  96  69 /   5   0   5   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/98



000
FXUS64 KSJT 032047
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
347 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Still quiet in the short term, with high pressure aloft in control.
Despite a decent cumulus field this afternoon, temperatures have
climbed into the low to mid 90s areawide. There has been a little
vertical development in the Cu on satellite across the southern
sections, but nothing noted on radar and nothing really expected
this afternoon either. TTU WRF suggests a little more development on
Friday afternoon, with perhaps a very isolated shower or
thunderstorm developing. Given the coverage it notes, going to keep
the 10 PoPs in the forecast but not mention anything in the forecast
for now. Will monitor and see if it shows any better coverage.
Otherwise, more of the same for temperatures with little change in
air mass for now.

07

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Labor Day)

The long term forecast, through Labor Day, remains dry, with
afternoon highs still well above seasonal normals. Models
continue to develop an upper trough over the Pacific northwest.
By Labor Day, this trough will dominate the Central and Northern
Rockies. However, models continue to indicate the upper ridge,
which has been so persistent over Texas, won`t relinquish its
position; it actually will broaden toward the west. The thermal
ridge at 850mb will continue to expand into West Central Texas,
from the west, each afternoon. Thus, afternoon highs mainly in the
mid 90s to around 100 look likely, especially for Sunday afternoon
and Monday afternoon.

(Monday night through Thursday)

The upper pattern continues to evolve mid to late next week, as
the ridge aloft shifts to the west. Models continue in fairly good
agreement, with northwest flow aloft developing over West Central
Texas by mid week. With the potential for minor disturbances in
the northwest flow aloft, rain chance improve for the Tuesday
through Thursday periods. The only caveat is the GFS is not as
aggressive with QPF development as the ECMWF. The ECMWF actually
brings a surface trough, or weak back-door cold front, to a
location near the Red River by late weak. So, the best rain
chances for Thursday reflect this ECMWF solution. Afternoon highs
will also decrease to numbers closer to seasonal normals by
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  94  74  95 /   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  72  94  74  95 /   5  10   5   5
Junction  72  93  72  94 /   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KCRP 032033
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
333 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL BEND WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER LAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
MOVING MORE INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE TOMORROW. NOT EXPECTING
QUITE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTH AND RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0
INCHES) ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL
ZONES AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
LIMITED AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...SO THE RAIN CHANCES BECOME ISOLATED AT BEST OVER THE EAST
(WITH NO RAIN MENTIONED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS). BECAUSE OF THIS...
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS NOT VERY HIGH ANYWAY...BUT AFTER SATURDAY HAVE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...OFFSHORE. MODELS ARE KEYING ON
SOME WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD (MAINLY
TUESDAY)...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS AS I ONLY SEE A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH ELSE (GFS CAP IS WEAKER BUT ECMWF
CAP IS STILL STRONG). PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES EITHER IN THE GULF
OF AT BEST OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGES AS SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES. EXPECT MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS OR
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  79  93  77  /  20  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  93  75  94  74  /  20  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            76  99  78 101  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74  96  77  97  74  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  90  80  91  80  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           75  98  76 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  95  78  97  76  /  20  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  81  90  80  /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 032033
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
333 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL BEND WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER LAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
MOVING MORE INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE TOMORROW. NOT EXPECTING
QUITE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTH AND RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0
INCHES) ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL
ZONES AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
LIMITED AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...SO THE RAIN CHANCES BECOME ISOLATED AT BEST OVER THE EAST
(WITH NO RAIN MENTIONED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS). BECAUSE OF THIS...
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS NOT VERY HIGH ANYWAY...BUT AFTER SATURDAY HAVE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...OFFSHORE. MODELS ARE KEYING ON
SOME WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD (MAINLY
TUESDAY)...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS AS I ONLY SEE A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH ELSE (GFS CAP IS WEAKER BUT ECMWF
CAP IS STILL STRONG). PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES EITHER IN THE GULF
OF AT BEST OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGES AS SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES. EXPECT MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS OR
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  79  93  77  /  20  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  93  75  94  74  /  20  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            76  99  78 101  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74  96  77  97  74  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  90  80  91  80  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           75  98  76 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  95  78  97  76  /  20  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  81  90  80  /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 032033
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
333 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL BEND WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER LAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
MOVING MORE INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE TOMORROW. NOT EXPECTING
QUITE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTH AND RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0
INCHES) ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL
ZONES AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
LIMITED AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...SO THE RAIN CHANCES BECOME ISOLATED AT BEST OVER THE EAST
(WITH NO RAIN MENTIONED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS). BECAUSE OF THIS...
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS NOT VERY HIGH ANYWAY...BUT AFTER SATURDAY HAVE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...OFFSHORE. MODELS ARE KEYING ON
SOME WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD (MAINLY
TUESDAY)...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS AS I ONLY SEE A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH ELSE (GFS CAP IS WEAKER BUT ECMWF
CAP IS STILL STRONG). PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES EITHER IN THE GULF
OF AT BEST OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGES AS SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES. EXPECT MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS OR
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  79  93  77  /  20  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  93  75  94  74  /  20  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            76  99  78 101  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74  96  77  97  74  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  90  80  91  80  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           75  98  76 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  95  78  97  76  /  20  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  81  90  80  /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 032033
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
333 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL BEND WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER LAND.
EXPECT SIMILAR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
MOVING MORE INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE TOMORROW. NOT EXPECTING
QUITE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTH AND RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE (PWAT VALUES 1.8-2.0
INCHES) ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG COASTAL
ZONES AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COME UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
LIMITED AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...SO THE RAIN CHANCES BECOME ISOLATED AT BEST OVER THE EAST
(WITH NO RAIN MENTIONED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS). BECAUSE OF THIS...
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS NOT VERY HIGH ANYWAY...BUT AFTER SATURDAY HAVE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...OFFSHORE. MODELS ARE KEYING ON
SOME WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD (MAINLY
TUESDAY)...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS AS I ONLY SEE A SUBTLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH ELSE (GFS CAP IS WEAKER BUT ECMWF
CAP IS STILL STRONG). PREFER TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES EITHER IN THE GULF
OF AT BEST OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGES AS SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES. EXPECT MORE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS OR
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  79  93  77  /  20  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  93  75  94  74  /  20  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            76  99  78 101  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             74  96  77  97  74  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  90  80  91  80  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           75  98  76 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  95  78  97  76  /  20  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  81  90  80  /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM



000
FXUS64 KFWD 032030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY SOUTHEAST OF A TEMPLE TO CORSICANA TO CANTON LINE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY HOT DAYS AND CLEAR
MILD NIGHTS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND A FEW SPOTS MAY
REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER ARE 90 TO 94 DEGREES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... NEAR
SOUTHERN VANCOVER ISLAND/NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL DIG SOUTH AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DIG A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK....BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE RED RIVER NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY...AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
GOLDTHWAITE... HILLSBORO...EMORY LINE WEDNESDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAT PERIOD....WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
8 KTS.

AJS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  77  97  79 /   5   5   5  10   5
WACO, TX              73  95  75  97  76 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             72  94  73  96  75 /   5   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            73  95  75  97  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  94  75  95  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  95  79  97  80 /   5   5   5  10   5
TERRELL, TX           74  94  75  95  76 /   5   5   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  95  76  96  77 /  10  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  94  74  97  74 /  10  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  96  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

81/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 032030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY SOUTHEAST OF A TEMPLE TO CORSICANA TO CANTON LINE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY HOT DAYS AND CLEAR
MILD NIGHTS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND A FEW SPOTS MAY
REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER ARE 90 TO 94 DEGREES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... NEAR
SOUTHERN VANCOVER ISLAND/NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL DIG SOUTH AND SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL LOW AND DIG A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK....BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE RED RIVER NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY...AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
GOLDTHWAITE... HILLSBORO...EMORY LINE WEDNESDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAT PERIOD....WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
8 KTS.

AJS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  95  77  97  79 /   5   5   5  10   5
WACO, TX              73  95  75  97  76 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             72  94  73  96  75 /   5   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            73  95  75  97  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          74  94  75  95  77 /   5   5   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            77  95  79  97  80 /   5   5   5  10   5
TERRELL, TX           74  94  75  95  76 /   5   5   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  95  76  96  77 /  10  10   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  94  74  97  74 /  10  10   5  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  96  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

81/58



000
FXUS64 KHGX 032025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX AND PRECIP IS
AGAIN EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET. HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS EARLY FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.10 INCHES ON FRIDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 89-90 DEGREES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO SE TX. AM STILL EXPECTING SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE STATE. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND SO CAN`T RULE OUT ISO/SCT
SHRA ACTIVITY BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE NW ZONES AND MID
90S OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST BUT
NEVER GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SE TX TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE AS HEIGHTS FALL. MOISTURE LEVELS
DROP TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A SERIES OF
S/WVS INTO THE REGION THAT HELP TO CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO SE TX THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST AND ALSO MAINTAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT SOME
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IT`S A LONG WAY OFF SO JUST BLENDED
THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR WEAK ONSHORE WINDS OVER LOW
SEAS/EARLY DAY CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AVERAGE SOUTHERLIES AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS...SMOOTH
BAY WATERS WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 FOOT OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR BOATERS AND BEACH GO`ERS TO EXPERIENCE
A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LABOR DAY. NEXT WORK WEEK
STORM CHANCES MAY GO UP IF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL GULF PROPAGATES WESTWARD. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 032025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX AND PRECIP IS
AGAIN EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET. HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS EARLY FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.10 INCHES ON FRIDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 89-90 DEGREES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO SE TX. AM STILL EXPECTING SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE STATE. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND SO CAN`T RULE OUT ISO/SCT
SHRA ACTIVITY BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE NW ZONES AND MID
90S OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST BUT
NEVER GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SE TX TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE AS HEIGHTS FALL. MOISTURE LEVELS
DROP TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A SERIES OF
S/WVS INTO THE REGION THAT HELP TO CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO SE TX THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST AND ALSO MAINTAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT SOME
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IT`S A LONG WAY OFF SO JUST BLENDED
THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR WEAK ONSHORE WINDS OVER LOW
SEAS/EARLY DAY CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AVERAGE SOUTHERLIES AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS...SMOOTH
BAY WATERS WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 FOOT OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR BOATERS AND BEACH GO`ERS TO EXPERIENCE
A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LABOR DAY. NEXT WORK WEEK
STORM CHANCES MAY GO UP IF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL GULF PROPAGATES WESTWARD. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 032025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX AND PRECIP IS
AGAIN EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET. HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS EARLY FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.10 INCHES ON FRIDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 89-90 DEGREES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO SE TX. AM STILL EXPECTING SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE STATE. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND SO CAN`T RULE OUT ISO/SCT
SHRA ACTIVITY BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE NW ZONES AND MID
90S OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST BUT
NEVER GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SE TX TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE AS HEIGHTS FALL. MOISTURE LEVELS
DROP TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A SERIES OF
S/WVS INTO THE REGION THAT HELP TO CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO SE TX THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST AND ALSO MAINTAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT SOME
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IT`S A LONG WAY OFF SO JUST BLENDED
THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR WEAK ONSHORE WINDS OVER LOW
SEAS/EARLY DAY CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AVERAGE SOUTHERLIES AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS...SMOOTH
BAY WATERS WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 FOOT OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR BOATERS AND BEACH GO`ERS TO EXPERIENCE
A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LABOR DAY. NEXT WORK WEEK
STORM CHANCES MAY GO UP IF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL GULF PROPAGATES WESTWARD. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 032025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX AND PRECIP IS
AGAIN EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET. HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS EARLY FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.10 INCHES ON FRIDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 89-90 DEGREES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO SE TX. AM STILL EXPECTING SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE STATE. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND SO CAN`T RULE OUT ISO/SCT
SHRA ACTIVITY BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE NW ZONES AND MID
90S OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST BUT
NEVER GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SE TX TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE AS HEIGHTS FALL. MOISTURE LEVELS
DROP TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A SERIES OF
S/WVS INTO THE REGION THAT HELP TO CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO SE TX THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST AND ALSO MAINTAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT SOME
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IT`S A LONG WAY OFF SO JUST BLENDED
THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR WEAK ONSHORE WINDS OVER LOW
SEAS/EARLY DAY CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AVERAGE SOUTHERLIES AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS...SMOOTH
BAY WATERS WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 FOOT OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR BOATERS AND BEACH GO`ERS TO EXPERIENCE
A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LABOR DAY. NEXT WORK WEEK
STORM CHANCES MAY GO UP IF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL GULF PROPAGATES WESTWARD. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLUB 032025
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23



000
FXUS64 KLUB 032025
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23



000
FXUS64 KLUB 032025
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23



000
FXUS64 KLUB 032025
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23



000
FXUS64 KLUB 032025
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23



000
FXUS64 KHGX 032025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX AND PRECIP IS
AGAIN EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET. HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS EARLY FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.10 INCHES ON FRIDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 89-90 DEGREES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO SE TX. AM STILL EXPECTING SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE STATE. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND SO CAN`T RULE OUT ISO/SCT
SHRA ACTIVITY BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE NW ZONES AND MID
90S OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST BUT
NEVER GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SE TX TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE AS HEIGHTS FALL. MOISTURE LEVELS
DROP TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A SERIES OF
S/WVS INTO THE REGION THAT HELP TO CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO SE TX THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST AND ALSO MAINTAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT SOME
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IT`S A LONG WAY OFF SO JUST BLENDED
THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR WEAK ONSHORE WINDS OVER LOW
SEAS/EARLY DAY CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AVERAGE SOUTHERLIES AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS...SMOOTH
BAY WATERS WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 FOOT OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR BOATERS AND BEACH GO`ERS TO EXPERIENCE
A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LABOR DAY. NEXT WORK WEEK
STORM CHANCES MAY GO UP IF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL GULF PROPAGATES WESTWARD. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 032025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX AND PRECIP IS
AGAIN EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARD SUNSET. HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS LOOK SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS EARLY FRIDAY. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.80 AND 2.10 INCHES ON FRIDAY BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 89-90 DEGREES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS INTO SE TX. AM STILL EXPECTING SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP WITH
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE STATE. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-1.9 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND SO CAN`T RULE OUT ISO/SCT
SHRA ACTIVITY BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE NW ZONES AND MID
90S OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST BUT
NEVER GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SE TX TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE AS HEIGHTS FALL. MOISTURE LEVELS
DROP TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES WHICH IS PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ECMWF BRINGS A SERIES OF
S/WVS INTO THE REGION THAT HELP TO CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.. THIS PATTERN WOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK TO SE TX THU/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST AND ALSO MAINTAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT SOME
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IT`S A LONG WAY OFF SO JUST BLENDED
THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR WEAK ONSHORE WINDS OVER LOW
SEAS/EARLY DAY CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AVERAGE SOUTHERLIES AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS...SMOOTH
BAY WATERS WITH GENERAL 1 TO 2 FOOT OFFSHORE SEA HEIGHTS. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR BOATERS AND BEACH GO`ERS TO EXPERIENCE
A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH LABOR DAY. NEXT WORK WEEK
STORM CHANCES MAY GO UP IF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL GULF PROPAGATES WESTWARD. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  93  76  96  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  80  90  80 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME OF THE STORMS OUT WEST MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS PLUME IS TAPPING MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
IS SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THE EXTRA
MOISTURE WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
RAIN AMOUNTS FOR AREAS EAST OF LAS CRUCES WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHTER AND SPOTTY...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. OUT WEST...STRONGER STORMS WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...SMALL
STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS. LOW WATER CROSSINGS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE GILA REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND AND TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE RESULTING STRENGTHENED WESTERLY FLOW THAT OCCURS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PULL APART THE MOISTURE PLUME WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LABOR WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED HIGH MOUNTAIN STORMS EXPECTED. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY
BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH NO SPECIFIC
FLOODING THREAT. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THREE DAY
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEE A MODEST RESURGENCE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME BY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH THE WEST COAST TRIES TO
DEEPEN SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE SOUTHERLY TAP OF SUB
TROPICAL INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
ENTRAINED WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN-OVC120-150 THRU PD. SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040
WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER. WINDS
GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT EASTWARD IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLING DOWN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM RECENT TEMPERATURES
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S
LOWLANDS WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  91  70  91 /  20  10  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA           66  92  66  91 /  20  10  20  30
LAS CRUCES              66  86  64  87 /  30  20  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              67  90  66  89 /  20  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  68  50  68 /  30  40  40  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  83  63  84 /  30  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             58  75  57  76 /  50  60  50  40
DEMING                  64  86  62  86 /  30  50  40  30
LORDSBURG               63  82  61  84 /  60  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  92  70  92 /  20  10  20  30
DELL CITY               70  95  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            70  94  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
LOMA LINDA              66  88  66  87 /  20  10  20  30
FABENS                  69  93  67  93 /  20  10  20  30
SANTA TERESA            69  89  67  90 /  20  20  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  88  66  88 /  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  30
HATCH                   65  87  62  87 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                65  87  64  88 /  30  40  40  30
OROGRANDE               69  89  68  90 /  20  10  20  30
MAYHILL                 56  77  56  75 /  30  40  30  60
MESCALERO               56  78  54  78 /  30  40  40  50
TIMBERON                58  76  57  76 /  30  30  30  50
WINSTON                 56  73  54  74 /  60  50  50  50
HILLSBORO               61  82  59  83 /  40  50  40  30
SPACEPORT               65  85  63  86 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            52  74  50  75 /  60  60  50  50
HURLEY                  59  79  58  79 /  40  50  40  40
CLIFF                   59  79  57  81 /  50  60  50  40
MULE CREEK              55  75  53  77 /  40  60  40  40
FAYWOOD                 60  80  58  81 /  40  50  40  30
ANIMAS                  63  82  62  83 /  60  50  40  40
HACHITA                 62  84  61  85 /  50  50  40  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  82  60  83 /  50  50  40  50
CLOVERDALE              60  77  59  78 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME OF THE STORMS OUT WEST MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS PLUME IS TAPPING MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
IS SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THE EXTRA
MOISTURE WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
RAIN AMOUNTS FOR AREAS EAST OF LAS CRUCES WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHTER AND SPOTTY...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. OUT WEST...STRONGER STORMS WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...SMALL
STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS. LOW WATER CROSSINGS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE GILA REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND AND TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE RESULTING STRENGTHENED WESTERLY FLOW THAT OCCURS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PULL APART THE MOISTURE PLUME WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LABOR WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED HIGH MOUNTAIN STORMS EXPECTED. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY
BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH NO SPECIFIC
FLOODING THREAT. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THREE DAY
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEE A MODEST RESURGENCE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME BY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH THE WEST COAST TRIES TO
DEEPEN SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE SOUTHERLY TAP OF SUB
TROPICAL INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
ENTRAINED WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN-OVC120-150 THRU PD. SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040
WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER. WINDS
GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT EASTWARD IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLING DOWN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM RECENT TEMPERATURES
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S
LOWLANDS WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  91  70  91 /  20  10  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA           66  92  66  91 /  20  10  20  30
LAS CRUCES              66  86  64  87 /  30  20  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              67  90  66  89 /  20  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  68  50  68 /  30  40  40  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  83  63  84 /  30  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             58  75  57  76 /  50  60  50  40
DEMING                  64  86  62  86 /  30  50  40  30
LORDSBURG               63  82  61  84 /  60  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  92  70  92 /  20  10  20  30
DELL CITY               70  95  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            70  94  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
LOMA LINDA              66  88  66  87 /  20  10  20  30
FABENS                  69  93  67  93 /  20  10  20  30
SANTA TERESA            69  89  67  90 /  20  20  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  88  66  88 /  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  30
HATCH                   65  87  62  87 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                65  87  64  88 /  30  40  40  30
OROGRANDE               69  89  68  90 /  20  10  20  30
MAYHILL                 56  77  56  75 /  30  40  30  60
MESCALERO               56  78  54  78 /  30  40  40  50
TIMBERON                58  76  57  76 /  30  30  30  50
WINSTON                 56  73  54  74 /  60  50  50  50
HILLSBORO               61  82  59  83 /  40  50  40  30
SPACEPORT               65  85  63  86 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            52  74  50  75 /  60  60  50  50
HURLEY                  59  79  58  79 /  40  50  40  40
CLIFF                   59  79  57  81 /  50  60  50  40
MULE CREEK              55  75  53  77 /  40  60  40  40
FAYWOOD                 60  80  58  81 /  40  50  40  30
ANIMAS                  63  82  62  83 /  60  50  40  40
HACHITA                 62  84  61  85 /  50  50  40  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  82  60  83 /  50  50  40  50
CLOVERDALE              60  77  59  78 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME OF THE STORMS OUT WEST MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS PLUME IS TAPPING MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
IS SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THE EXTRA
MOISTURE WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
RAIN AMOUNTS FOR AREAS EAST OF LAS CRUCES WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHTER AND SPOTTY...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. OUT WEST...STRONGER STORMS WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...SMALL
STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS. LOW WATER CROSSINGS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE GILA REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND AND TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE RESULTING STRENGTHENED WESTERLY FLOW THAT OCCURS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PULL APART THE MOISTURE PLUME WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LABOR WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED HIGH MOUNTAIN STORMS EXPECTED. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY
BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH NO SPECIFIC
FLOODING THREAT. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THREE DAY
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEE A MODEST RESURGENCE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME BY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH THE WEST COAST TRIES TO
DEEPEN SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE SOUTHERLY TAP OF SUB
TROPICAL INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
ENTRAINED WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN-OVC120-150 THRU PD. SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040
WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER. WINDS
GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT EASTWARD IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLING DOWN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM RECENT TEMPERATURES
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S
LOWLANDS WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  91  70  91 /  20  10  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA           66  92  66  91 /  20  10  20  30
LAS CRUCES              66  86  64  87 /  30  20  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              67  90  66  89 /  20  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  68  50  68 /  30  40  40  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  83  63  84 /  30  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             58  75  57  76 /  50  60  50  40
DEMING                  64  86  62  86 /  30  50  40  30
LORDSBURG               63  82  61  84 /  60  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  92  70  92 /  20  10  20  30
DELL CITY               70  95  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            70  94  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
LOMA LINDA              66  88  66  87 /  20  10  20  30
FABENS                  69  93  67  93 /  20  10  20  30
SANTA TERESA            69  89  67  90 /  20  20  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  88  66  88 /  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  30
HATCH                   65  87  62  87 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                65  87  64  88 /  30  40  40  30
OROGRANDE               69  89  68  90 /  20  10  20  30
MAYHILL                 56  77  56  75 /  30  40  30  60
MESCALERO               56  78  54  78 /  30  40  40  50
TIMBERON                58  76  57  76 /  30  30  30  50
WINSTON                 56  73  54  74 /  60  50  50  50
HILLSBORO               61  82  59  83 /  40  50  40  30
SPACEPORT               65  85  63  86 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            52  74  50  75 /  60  60  50  50
HURLEY                  59  79  58  79 /  40  50  40  40
CLIFF                   59  79  57  81 /  50  60  50  40
MULE CREEK              55  75  53  77 /  40  60  40  40
FAYWOOD                 60  80  58  81 /  40  50  40  30
ANIMAS                  63  82  62  83 /  60  50  40  40
HACHITA                 62  84  61  85 /  50  50  40  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  82  60  83 /  50  50  40  50
CLOVERDALE              60  77  59  78 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME OF THE STORMS OUT WEST MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS PLUME IS TAPPING MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
IS SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THE EXTRA
MOISTURE WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
RAIN AMOUNTS FOR AREAS EAST OF LAS CRUCES WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHTER AND SPOTTY...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. OUT WEST...STRONGER STORMS WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...SMALL
STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS. LOW WATER CROSSINGS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE GILA REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND AND TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE RESULTING STRENGTHENED WESTERLY FLOW THAT OCCURS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PULL APART THE MOISTURE PLUME WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LABOR WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED HIGH MOUNTAIN STORMS EXPECTED. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY
BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH NO SPECIFIC
FLOODING THREAT. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THREE DAY
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEE A MODEST RESURGENCE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME BY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH THE WEST COAST TRIES TO
DEEPEN SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE SOUTHERLY TAP OF SUB
TROPICAL INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
ENTRAINED WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN-OVC120-150 THRU PD. SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040
WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER. WINDS
GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT EASTWARD IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLING DOWN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM RECENT TEMPERATURES
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S
LOWLANDS WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  91  70  91 /  20  10  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA           66  92  66  91 /  20  10  20  30
LAS CRUCES              66  86  64  87 /  30  20  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              67  90  66  89 /  20  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  68  50  68 /  30  40  40  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  83  63  84 /  30  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             58  75  57  76 /  50  60  50  40
DEMING                  64  86  62  86 /  30  50  40  30
LORDSBURG               63  82  61  84 /  60  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  92  70  92 /  20  10  20  30
DELL CITY               70  95  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            70  94  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
LOMA LINDA              66  88  66  87 /  20  10  20  30
FABENS                  69  93  67  93 /  20  10  20  30
SANTA TERESA            69  89  67  90 /  20  20  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  88  66  88 /  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  30
HATCH                   65  87  62  87 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                65  87  64  88 /  30  40  40  30
OROGRANDE               69  89  68  90 /  20  10  20  30
MAYHILL                 56  77  56  75 /  30  40  30  60
MESCALERO               56  78  54  78 /  30  40  40  50
TIMBERON                58  76  57  76 /  30  30  30  50
WINSTON                 56  73  54  74 /  60  50  50  50
HILLSBORO               61  82  59  83 /  40  50  40  30
SPACEPORT               65  85  63  86 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            52  74  50  75 /  60  60  50  50
HURLEY                  59  79  58  79 /  40  50  40  40
CLIFF                   59  79  57  81 /  50  60  50  40
MULE CREEK              55  75  53  77 /  40  60  40  40
FAYWOOD                 60  80  58  81 /  40  50  40  30
ANIMAS                  63  82  62  83 /  60  50  40  40
HACHITA                 62  84  61  85 /  50  50  40  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  82  60  83 /  50  50  40  50
CLOVERDALE              60  77  59  78 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME OF THE STORMS OUT WEST MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS PLUME IS TAPPING MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
IS SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THE EXTRA
MOISTURE WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
RAIN AMOUNTS FOR AREAS EAST OF LAS CRUCES WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHTER AND SPOTTY...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. OUT WEST...STRONGER STORMS WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...SMALL
STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS. LOW WATER CROSSINGS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE GILA REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND AND TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE RESULTING STRENGTHENED WESTERLY FLOW THAT OCCURS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PULL APART THE MOISTURE PLUME WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LABOR WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED HIGH MOUNTAIN STORMS EXPECTED. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY
BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH NO SPECIFIC
FLOODING THREAT. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THREE DAY
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEE A MODEST RESURGENCE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME BY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH THE WEST COAST TRIES TO
DEEPEN SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE SOUTHERLY TAP OF SUB
TROPICAL INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
ENTRAINED WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN-OVC120-150 THRU PD. SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040
WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER. WINDS
GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT EASTWARD IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLING DOWN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM RECENT TEMPERATURES
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S
LOWLANDS WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  91  70  91 /  20  10  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA           66  92  66  91 /  20  10  20  30
LAS CRUCES              66  86  64  87 /  30  20  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              67  90  66  89 /  20  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  68  50  68 /  30  40  40  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  83  63  84 /  30  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             58  75  57  76 /  50  60  50  40
DEMING                  64  86  62  86 /  30  50  40  30
LORDSBURG               63  82  61  84 /  60  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  92  70  92 /  20  10  20  30
DELL CITY               70  95  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            70  94  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
LOMA LINDA              66  88  66  87 /  20  10  20  30
FABENS                  69  93  67  93 /  20  10  20  30
SANTA TERESA            69  89  67  90 /  20  20  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  88  66  88 /  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  30
HATCH                   65  87  62  87 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                65  87  64  88 /  30  40  40  30
OROGRANDE               69  89  68  90 /  20  10  20  30
MAYHILL                 56  77  56  75 /  30  40  30  60
MESCALERO               56  78  54  78 /  30  40  40  50
TIMBERON                58  76  57  76 /  30  30  30  50
WINSTON                 56  73  54  74 /  60  50  50  50
HILLSBORO               61  82  59  83 /  40  50  40  30
SPACEPORT               65  85  63  86 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            52  74  50  75 /  60  60  50  50
HURLEY                  59  79  58  79 /  40  50  40  40
CLIFF                   59  79  57  81 /  50  60  50  40
MULE CREEK              55  75  53  77 /  40  60  40  40
FAYWOOD                 60  80  58  81 /  40  50  40  30
ANIMAS                  63  82  62  83 /  60  50  40  40
HACHITA                 62  84  61  85 /  50  50  40  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  82  60  83 /  50  50  40  50
CLOVERDALE              60  77  59  78 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ



000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE FLOWING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SOME OF THE STORMS OUT WEST MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS PLUME IS TAPPING MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT
IS SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THE EXTRA
MOISTURE WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
RAIN AMOUNTS FOR AREAS EAST OF LAS CRUCES WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHTER AND SPOTTY...DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. OUT WEST...STRONGER STORMS WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES...SMALL
STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS. LOW WATER CROSSINGS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE GILA REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND AND TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE RESULTING STRENGTHENED WESTERLY FLOW THAT OCCURS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PULL APART THE MOISTURE PLUME WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LABOR WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED HIGH MOUNTAIN STORMS EXPECTED. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL VARY
BUT WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH NO SPECIFIC
FLOODING THREAT. OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THREE DAY
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEE A MODEST RESURGENCE OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME BY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH THE WEST COAST TRIES TO
DEEPEN SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE SOUTHERLY TAP OF SUB
TROPICAL INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
ENTRAINED WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN-OVC120-150 THRU PD. SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040
WEST OF RIO GRANDE AND AREA MTNS...ISOLD EAST OF RIVER. WINDS
GENERALLY W TO NW AOB 12KTS...BUT STRONGER WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL SHIFT EASTWARD IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLING DOWN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM RECENT TEMPERATURES
EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S
LOWLANDS WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  91  70  91 /  20  10  20  30
SIERRA BLANCA           66  92  66  91 /  20  10  20  30
LAS CRUCES              66  86  64  87 /  30  20  20  30
ALAMOGORDO              67  90  66  89 /  20  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  68  50  68 /  30  40  40  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  83  63  84 /  30  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             58  75  57  76 /  50  60  50  40
DEMING                  64  86  62  86 /  30  50  40  30
LORDSBURG               63  82  61  84 /  60  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      71  92  70  92 /  20  10  20  30
DELL CITY               70  95  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
FORT HANCOCK            70  94  69  94 /  20  10  20  30
LOMA LINDA              66  88  66  87 /  20  10  20  30
FABENS                  69  93  67  93 /  20  10  20  30
SANTA TERESA            69  89  67  90 /  20  20  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  88  66  88 /  20  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           66  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  30
HATCH                   65  87  62  87 /  30  30  30  30
COLUMBUS                65  87  64  88 /  30  40  40  30
OROGRANDE               69  89  68  90 /  20  10  20  30
MAYHILL                 56  77  56  75 /  30  40  30  60
MESCALERO               56  78  54  78 /  30  40  40  50
TIMBERON                58  76  57  76 /  30  30  30  50
WINSTON                 56  73  54  74 /  60  50  50  50
HILLSBORO               61  82  59  83 /  40  50  40  30
SPACEPORT               65  85  63  86 /  30  30  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            52  74  50  75 /  60  60  50  50
HURLEY                  59  79  58  79 /  40  50  40  40
CLIFF                   59  79  57  81 /  50  60  50  40
MULE CREEK              55  75  53  77 /  40  60  40  40
FAYWOOD                 60  80  58  81 /  40  50  40  30
ANIMAS                  63  82  62  83 /  60  50  40  40
HACHITA                 62  84  61  85 /  50  50  40  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  82  60  83 /  50  50  40  50
CLOVERDALE              60  77  59  78 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KBRO 031959
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE WEAK 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND
OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS FRI MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE SEABREEZE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. WILL
GO WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST RANCHLANDS...FRIDAY AS THE
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOW POPS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL LOWER POPS SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO LESS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE VALUES ALONG WITH BETTER LIFT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO CAN NOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE GULF
WATERS...ESPECIALLY AS A 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO
THE UPPER70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...61/65
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...HERGERT



000
FXUS64 KBRO 031959
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE WEAK 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND
OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS FRI MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE SEABREEZE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. WILL
GO WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST RANCHLANDS...FRIDAY AS THE
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOW POPS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL LOWER POPS SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO LESS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE VALUES ALONG WITH BETTER LIFT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO CAN NOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE GULF
WATERS...ESPECIALLY AS A 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO
THE UPPER70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...61/65
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...HERGERT




000
FXUS64 KAMA 031944
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPING BACK TO LAST EVENING SHOWED A MARKED
INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NEW
MEXCIO FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THESE
TRENDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE EL PASO SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. TRACKING THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY HAVE MINOR
INFLUENCE ON POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OR DEEPENING IS EXPECTED. THIS STEADY-STATE
FEATURE WILL GENERALLY BE POSITIONED FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN MAY REPOSITION SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BY LATE TOMORROW.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH MOIST MID LEVELS SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. FOR ANY OF THE
CONVECTION THAT MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL GIVEN TYPICAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SEEN IN THIS PATTERN
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A FAIRLY SIZABLE SURFACE MIXED
LAYER YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

3-6 KM THETA-E SHOWS THE MOISTURE PLUME WELL. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE AND SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING
EASTWARD SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY
REFOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS FURTHER WEST INTO NEW
MEXICO WHICH WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY TERRAIN INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS. AT THE VERY LEAST SOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID UPPER
CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MOIST PLUME AND HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD.

BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK AS DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE. A BLENDED APPROACH TO EXTENDED FORECAST
WAS ACCEPTED ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD ARE STILL QUITE LARGE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID WEEK INTO
LATE WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE PERIOD HAVING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THAN ANOTHER IS LOW BUT HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ON TUESDAY SINCE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES THEN. THEREAFTER CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW. ECMWF DEPICTS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE
IS ABSENT FROM THE GFS WHICH REMAINS MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MORE ELONGATED
WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
MODEL IS MORE ACCURATE...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS RETAINING AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                65  94  67  92  68 /   5   5   5   5  10
BEAVER OK                  69  98  71  97  71 /   5   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  94  65  92  64 /  20  10  10  20  20
BORGER TX                  69  97  71  95  72 /   5   5   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              68  95  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  65  93  66  92  67 /  10   5   5  10   5
CLARENDON TX               68  94  68  94  67 /   5   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 62  94  67  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  66  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10  20
HEREFORD TX                66  93  66  91  67 /  10  10   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                69  96  70  95  70 /   5   5   5   5   5
PAMPA TX                   67  93  69  92  69 /   5   5   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                67  95  69  95  68 /   5   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              67  96  70  96  69 /   5   0   5   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17



000
FXUS64 KEWX 031933
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
233 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY SOME
WELCOMED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED
COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS TIME WINDOW.

SHALLOW LOW-LVL BUOYANCY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF IS AIDING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY IS BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AND MID TO LOW-
LVL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. THIS COMBINATION OF THERMODYNAMICS IS
NOT ALLOWING FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AS THERE IS ALSO A WARM NOSE
AROUND 500 MB AS SUGGESTED BY NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS. ALL THESE
FACTORS COMBINED SHOULD LIMIT THUNDER POSSIBILITIES. HAVE PLACED
SHOWER WORDING AS THE DOMINATE WEATHER TYPE THROUGH 8PM WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
RESTABLIZATION.

FOR FRIDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER 500MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALL WAY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AGAIN...THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

ONLY SMALL TO NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH
A RIDGE BUILDING IN. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH INTO THE
100-105F DEGREE RANGE FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS NOW WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH TOWARDS THIS AREA. OTHER THAN SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE FAR SE...SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND
RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY 10-20% AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE WITH MID AND UPPER 90F READINGS WITH SOME SPORADIC LOW 100S
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEING LIKELY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 100-105F RANGE BOTH AFTERNOONS.

RIDGE POSITIONING CONTINUES TO SLIDE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE
BIG BEND AS IT BECOMES FLATTER FROM STRONGER MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY GET SOME RAIN RELIEF FROM SOME PASSING
WEATHER SYSTEMS BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR THIS
REGION TO TAKE PART. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER... STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SET UP OVER THE REGION AND AID IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS EVEN FARTHER WEST.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE NW FLOW AS THE EC IS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE RUN-TO-RUN IN THE LONGER TERM WITH A STRONGER
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT COULD BRING THE FIRST DECENT FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  95  76  97  76 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  93  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  95  75  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  74  95  74 /  10  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  97  77  97  77 /  10  20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  94  75  95  75 /  10  20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  96  75  97  74 /  10  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  76  96  75 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  93  76  96  76 /  30  20  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  95  77  96  76 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  96  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 031933
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
233 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY SOME
WELCOMED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED
COVERAGE AGAIN TOMORROW. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
DURING THIS TIME WINDOW.

SHALLOW LOW-LVL BUOYANCY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF IS AIDING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY IS BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AND MID TO LOW-
LVL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. THIS COMBINATION OF THERMODYNAMICS IS
NOT ALLOWING FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AS THERE IS ALSO A WARM NOSE
AROUND 500 MB AS SUGGESTED BY NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS. ALL THESE
FACTORS COMBINED SHOULD LIMIT THUNDER POSSIBILITIES. HAVE PLACED
SHOWER WORDING AS THE DOMINATE WEATHER TYPE THROUGH 8PM WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
RESTABLIZATION.

FOR FRIDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER 500MB LAYER. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BUT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALL WAY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. AGAIN...THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

ONLY SMALL TO NEGLIGIBLE CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH
A RIDGE BUILDING IN. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH INTO THE
100-105F DEGREE RANGE FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS NOW WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTH TOWARDS THIS AREA. OTHER THAN SOME SEA-
BREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE FAR SE...SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND
RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY 10-20% AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE WITH MID AND UPPER 90F READINGS WITH SOME SPORADIC LOW 100S
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEING LIKELY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 100-105F RANGE BOTH AFTERNOONS.

RIDGE POSITIONING CONTINUES TO SLIDE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE
BIG BEND AS IT BECOMES FLATTER FROM STRONGER MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY GET SOME RAIN RELIEF FROM SOME PASSING
WEATHER SYSTEMS BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR THIS
REGION TO TAKE PART. BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER... STRONGER
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SET UP OVER THE REGION AND AID IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS EVEN FARTHER WEST.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE NW FLOW AS THE EC IS A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE RUN-TO-RUN IN THE LONGER TERM WITH A STRONGER
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT COULD BRING THE FIRST DECENT FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION SOMETIME LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  95  76  97  76 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  93  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  95  75  97  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  74  95  74 /  10  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  97  77  97  77 /  10  20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  94  75  95  75 /  10  20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  96  75  97  74 /  10  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  76  96  75 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  93  76  96  76 /  30  20  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  95  77  96  76 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  96  76  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KMAF 031922
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to be the dominant feature over the
forecast area through the weekend which will result in high
temperatures remaining above normal.  However, a plume of mid and
upper level moisture will continue to impinge upon the higher
terrain, and allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, and again Friday.  Surface dewpoints are only
marginally sufficient for convective development, but there will be
a modest uptick from the previous couple of days.  The mentioned
plume of moisture will spread northward over the weekend, while
the ua ridge will build a little further westward.  Will still
carry a low chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain both
days though as surface dewpoints will continue to rise.  Any
storms that develop through the weekend will be capable of gusty
winds, due to a dry subcloud layer, and at least brief heavy
rainfall.

Not much will change Monday and Tuesday, but an upper trough
currently over the northwestern ConUS will eject northeastward late
this weekend, with another shortwave trough translating eastward
over the northern U.S. Plains through mid next week.  This should
weaken the upper ridge over the region, and possibly result in a
better chance of rain as a cold front is progged to drop south into
west Texas.  Will carry at least a low order chance of thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures will end up near normal if the
front makes it into the area, or be several degrees below normal if
convection aids a better push of cooler air southward.  Will likely
stay on the warm side of guidance until it becomes more clear on how
far south the front moves.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  68  90  72  93  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    68  97  69  95  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      73  95  75  96  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               69  95  70  96  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  89  67  87  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       64  90  65  90  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       54  88  57  89  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        69  93  71  94  /  10  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                      71  92  71  94  /  10  10   0  10
WINK TX                        71  97  72  96  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/67



000
FXUS64 KMAF 031922
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to be the dominant feature over the
forecast area through the weekend which will result in high
temperatures remaining above normal.  However, a plume of mid and
upper level moisture will continue to impinge upon the higher
terrain, and allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, and again Friday.  Surface dewpoints are only
marginally sufficient for convective development, but there will be
a modest uptick from the previous couple of days.  The mentioned
plume of moisture will spread northward over the weekend, while
the ua ridge will build a little further westward.  Will still
carry a low chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain both
days though as surface dewpoints will continue to rise.  Any
storms that develop through the weekend will be capable of gusty
winds, due to a dry subcloud layer, and at least brief heavy
rainfall.

Not much will change Monday and Tuesday, but an upper trough
currently over the northwestern ConUS will eject northeastward late
this weekend, with another shortwave trough translating eastward
over the northern U.S. Plains through mid next week.  This should
weaken the upper ridge over the region, and possibly result in a
better chance of rain as a cold front is progged to drop south into
west Texas.  Will carry at least a low order chance of thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures will end up near normal if the
front makes it into the area, or be several degrees below normal if
convection aids a better push of cooler air southward.  Will likely
stay on the warm side of guidance until it becomes more clear on how
far south the front moves.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  68  90  72  93  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    68  97  69  95  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      73  95  75  96  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               69  95  70  96  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  89  67  87  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       64  90  65  90  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       54  88  57  89  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        69  93  71  94  /  10  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                      71  92  71  94  /  10  10   0  10
WINK TX                        71  97  72  96  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/67




000
FXUS64 KMAF 031922
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to be the dominant feature over the
forecast area through the weekend which will result in high
temperatures remaining above normal.  However, a plume of mid and
upper level moisture will continue to impinge upon the higher
terrain, and allow for a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, and again Friday.  Surface dewpoints are only
marginally sufficient for convective development, but there will be
a modest uptick from the previous couple of days.  The mentioned
plume of moisture will spread northward over the weekend, while
the ua ridge will build a little further westward.  Will still
carry a low chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain both
days though as surface dewpoints will continue to rise.  Any
storms that develop through the weekend will be capable of gusty
winds, due to a dry subcloud layer, and at least brief heavy
rainfall.

Not much will change Monday and Tuesday, but an upper trough
currently over the northwestern ConUS will eject northeastward late
this weekend, with another shortwave trough translating eastward
over the northern U.S. Plains through mid next week.  This should
weaken the upper ridge over the region, and possibly result in a
better chance of rain as a cold front is progged to drop south into
west Texas.  Will carry at least a low order chance of thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures will end up near normal if the
front makes it into the area, or be several degrees below normal if
convection aids a better push of cooler air southward.  Will likely
stay on the warm side of guidance until it becomes more clear on how
far south the front moves.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  68  90  72  93  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    68  97  69  95  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      73  95  75  96  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               69  95  70  96  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  89  67  87  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       64  90  65  90  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       54  88  57  89  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        69  93  71  94  /  10  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                      71  92  71  94  /  10  10   0  10
WINK TX                        71  97  72  96  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/67



000
FXUS64 KHGX 031802
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
102 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MUCH LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY MOST LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO THE
GREATER INFLUENCE OF EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS
ALOFT. THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GULF SHEAR AXIS...WEAK MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND AMPLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF AFTERNOON VCSH IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. QUIET
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RETURNING SHALLOW GROUND FOG/LOW
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT OVER AREAS THAT PICK
UP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THIS LATE WEEK WEATHER PATTERN...ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL
EXISTS WITHIN A MOIST ENOUGH ENVIRONMENT TO SUGGEST ONE MORE DAY
OF WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA OR -TSRA FRIDAY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES AT CRP ARE 1.93 AND 2.21 INCHES AT LCH. CRP SOUNDING
SHOWS A BIT MORE DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB WHILE THE LCH SOUNDING IS
SATURATED UP TO 500 MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LOUISIANA. 850 MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL OVER S/SE TX AND A WEAK 850 TROUGH
EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL LA IN EXTREME EAST TX. A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH EXTENDED N-S ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTH CENTRAL LA INTO EAST TX. AT 250
MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXPANDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS
FEATURE IS IMPINGING ON SE TX. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPART
SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MORE SO ON FRI/SAT. THAT
SAID...MOISTURE LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA/ISO TSRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
30/40 POPS SHOULD COVER IT AND THIS IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
THE FOG/LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING HAS FOSTERED A COOLER START SO
WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO FROM MAX TEMPS EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING...
ALMOST ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR.
HOWEVER WILL BE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THRU
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE PESKY UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LATEST WET PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE HANGING ON OVER THE WRN GULF BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FILL
IN/WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE TAKING HOLD. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND. GFS
KEEPING WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
THE VERIFICATION TRENDS OF LATE HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THE WETTER
PROGS. AS SUCH WILL KEEP WITH THE GENERALLY DIURNAL POPS ALREADY
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MID/EXTENDED RANGE PART OF THE FCST. AS FOR
THE LONG-LONG RANGE PART OF THE FCST WHERE LAST NIGHTS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEXT FRI...ECMWF NOW BACKING
OFF A BIT WHEREAS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE BUYING IN. HMMM. 41

&&

MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM THEN SHIFT
INLAND. PW OF 2" STILL DRAPED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND BAYS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING FOR
THE COMING WEEK. WINDS THIS MORNING WERE 10-15 KNOTS BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SO EXPECT THE 3 FOOT SEAS TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS IN GENERAL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL BUT PROBABLY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE.  45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  94  76  95  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  93  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  79  90  80 /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 031802
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
102 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MUCH LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY MOST LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO THE
GREATER INFLUENCE OF EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS
ALOFT. THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GULF SHEAR AXIS...WEAK MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND AMPLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF AFTERNOON VCSH IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. QUIET
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RETURNING SHALLOW GROUND FOG/LOW
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT OVER AREAS THAT PICK
UP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THIS LATE WEEK WEATHER PATTERN...ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL
EXISTS WITHIN A MOIST ENOUGH ENVIRONMENT TO SUGGEST ONE MORE DAY
OF WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA OR -TSRA FRIDAY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES AT CRP ARE 1.93 AND 2.21 INCHES AT LCH. CRP SOUNDING
SHOWS A BIT MORE DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB WHILE THE LCH SOUNDING IS
SATURATED UP TO 500 MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LOUISIANA. 850 MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL OVER S/SE TX AND A WEAK 850 TROUGH
EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL LA IN EXTREME EAST TX. A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH EXTENDED N-S ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTH CENTRAL LA INTO EAST TX. AT 250
MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXPANDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS
FEATURE IS IMPINGING ON SE TX. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPART
SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MORE SO ON FRI/SAT. THAT
SAID...MOISTURE LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA/ISO TSRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
30/40 POPS SHOULD COVER IT AND THIS IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
THE FOG/LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING HAS FOSTERED A COOLER START SO
WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO FROM MAX TEMPS EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING...
ALMOST ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR.
HOWEVER WILL BE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THRU
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE PESKY UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LATEST WET PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE HANGING ON OVER THE WRN GULF BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FILL
IN/WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE TAKING HOLD. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND. GFS
KEEPING WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
THE VERIFICATION TRENDS OF LATE HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THE WETTER
PROGS. AS SUCH WILL KEEP WITH THE GENERALLY DIURNAL POPS ALREADY
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MID/EXTENDED RANGE PART OF THE FCST. AS FOR
THE LONG-LONG RANGE PART OF THE FCST WHERE LAST NIGHTS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEXT FRI...ECMWF NOW BACKING
OFF A BIT WHEREAS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE BUYING IN. HMMM. 41

&&

MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM THEN SHIFT
INLAND. PW OF 2" STILL DRAPED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND BAYS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING FOR
THE COMING WEEK. WINDS THIS MORNING WERE 10-15 KNOTS BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SO EXPECT THE 3 FOOT SEAS TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS IN GENERAL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL BUT PROBABLY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE.  45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  94  76  95  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  93  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  79  90  80 /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 031802
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
102 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MUCH LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY MOST LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO THE
GREATER INFLUENCE OF EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS
ALOFT. THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GULF SHEAR AXIS...WEAK MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND AMPLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF AFTERNOON VCSH IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. QUIET
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RETURNING SHALLOW GROUND FOG/LOW
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT OVER AREAS THAT PICK
UP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THIS LATE WEEK WEATHER PATTERN...ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL
EXISTS WITHIN A MOIST ENOUGH ENVIRONMENT TO SUGGEST ONE MORE DAY
OF WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA OR -TSRA FRIDAY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES AT CRP ARE 1.93 AND 2.21 INCHES AT LCH. CRP SOUNDING
SHOWS A BIT MORE DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB WHILE THE LCH SOUNDING IS
SATURATED UP TO 500 MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LOUISIANA. 850 MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL OVER S/SE TX AND A WEAK 850 TROUGH
EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL LA IN EXTREME EAST TX. A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH EXTENDED N-S ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTH CENTRAL LA INTO EAST TX. AT 250
MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXPANDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS
FEATURE IS IMPINGING ON SE TX. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPART
SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MORE SO ON FRI/SAT. THAT
SAID...MOISTURE LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA/ISO TSRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
30/40 POPS SHOULD COVER IT AND THIS IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
THE FOG/LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING HAS FOSTERED A COOLER START SO
WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO FROM MAX TEMPS EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING...
ALMOST ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR.
HOWEVER WILL BE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THRU
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE PESKY UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LATEST WET PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE HANGING ON OVER THE WRN GULF BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FILL
IN/WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE TAKING HOLD. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND. GFS
KEEPING WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
THE VERIFICATION TRENDS OF LATE HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THE WETTER
PROGS. AS SUCH WILL KEEP WITH THE GENERALLY DIURNAL POPS ALREADY
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MID/EXTENDED RANGE PART OF THE FCST. AS FOR
THE LONG-LONG RANGE PART OF THE FCST WHERE LAST NIGHTS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEXT FRI...ECMWF NOW BACKING
OFF A BIT WHEREAS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE BUYING IN. HMMM. 41

&&

MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM THEN SHIFT
INLAND. PW OF 2" STILL DRAPED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND BAYS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING FOR
THE COMING WEEK. WINDS THIS MORNING WERE 10-15 KNOTS BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SO EXPECT THE 3 FOOT SEAS TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS IN GENERAL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL BUT PROBABLY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE.  45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  94  76  95  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  93  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  79  90  80 /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 031802
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
102 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MUCH LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY MOST LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO THE
GREATER INFLUENCE OF EASTERN HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS
ALOFT. THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GULF SHEAR AXIS...WEAK MID-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND AMPLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF AFTERNOON VCSH IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. QUIET
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RETURNING SHALLOW GROUND FOG/LOW
STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT OVER AREAS THAT PICK
UP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE THIS LATE WEEK WEATHER PATTERN...ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL
EXISTS WITHIN A MOIST ENOUGH ENVIRONMENT TO SUGGEST ONE MORE DAY
OF WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA OR -TSRA FRIDAY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES AT CRP ARE 1.93 AND 2.21 INCHES AT LCH. CRP SOUNDING
SHOWS A BIT MORE DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB WHILE THE LCH SOUNDING IS
SATURATED UP TO 500 MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LOUISIANA. 850 MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL OVER S/SE TX AND A WEAK 850 TROUGH
EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL LA IN EXTREME EAST TX. A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH EXTENDED N-S ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTH CENTRAL LA INTO EAST TX. AT 250
MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXPANDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS
FEATURE IS IMPINGING ON SE TX. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPART
SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MORE SO ON FRI/SAT. THAT
SAID...MOISTURE LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA/ISO TSRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
30/40 POPS SHOULD COVER IT AND THIS IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
THE FOG/LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING HAS FOSTERED A COOLER START SO
WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO FROM MAX TEMPS EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING...
ALMOST ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR.
HOWEVER WILL BE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THRU
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE PESKY UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LATEST WET PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE HANGING ON OVER THE WRN GULF BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FILL
IN/WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE TAKING HOLD. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND. GFS
KEEPING WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
THE VERIFICATION TRENDS OF LATE HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THE WETTER
PROGS. AS SUCH WILL KEEP WITH THE GENERALLY DIURNAL POPS ALREADY
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MID/EXTENDED RANGE PART OF THE FCST. AS FOR
THE LONG-LONG RANGE PART OF THE FCST WHERE LAST NIGHTS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEXT FRI...ECMWF NOW BACKING
OFF A BIT WHEREAS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE BUYING IN. HMMM. 41

&&

MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM THEN SHIFT
INLAND. PW OF 2" STILL DRAPED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND BAYS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING FOR
THE COMING WEEK. WINDS THIS MORNING WERE 10-15 KNOTS BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SO EXPECT THE 3 FOOT SEAS TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS IN GENERAL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL BUT PROBABLY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE.  45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  94  76  95  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  93  76  94  76 /  30  30  30  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  88  79  90  80 /  30  40  30  40  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KCRP 031749
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1249 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE VCT TERMINAL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE
INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. MVFR CIGS WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE IMPACTING VCT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR AT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT TO SEE RETURN OF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALI/VCT DURING THE EARLY MORNING...ALONG WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY AOA CRP/VCT AS WELL. LRD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  78  93  78  /  20  30  10  20  10
VICTORIA          73  94  73  93  76  /  20  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            77  99  77 100  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             73  95  75  96  76  /  10  20  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          78  89  79  90  81  /  20  40  20  30  10
COTULLA           75  98  75 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  95  77  95  78  /  10  30  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  89  80  90  81  /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 031749
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1249 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE VCT TERMINAL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE
INLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. MVFR CIGS WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE IMPACTING VCT DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR AT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT TO SEE RETURN OF MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALI/VCT DURING THE EARLY MORNING...ALONG WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY AOA CRP/VCT AS WELL. LRD WILL REMAIN DRY WITH VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  78  93  78  /  20  30  10  20  10
VICTORIA          73  94  73  93  76  /  20  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            77  99  77 100  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             73  95  75  96  76  /  10  20  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          78  89  79  90  81  /  20  40  20  30  10
COTULLA           75  98  75 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  95  77  95  78  /  10  30  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  89  80  90  81  /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KEWX 031729
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR LEVEL CIGS WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL COME LATE
MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING WITH TODAYS FORECAST
ON TRACK WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE WISE. ONE SMALL ADJUSTMENT MADE
WAS SLIGHTLY REDUCING THE 30% POP IN LAVACA AND FAYETTE COUNTIES
TO 20% AND SHIFTING THE 30% AREA INTO KARNES COUNTY THROUGH 1PM.
THIS SHIFTING WAS DUE TO ONGOING RADAR TRENDS. HOURLY DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN LOCATIONS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES ARE OUT AND MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW
IN THE UPDATED DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION... SOME SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE COAST AND EXTEND
INLAND INTO DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE I-35/37 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SEA-BREEZE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. WATER VAPOR AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO SE OF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS FEATURE MAY BE JUST DISTANT
ENOUGH NOT TO HAVE TO MUCH BEARING ON OUR WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN
DEEPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST. THIS FLOW MAY HELP SOME
SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY PUSH FROM THE EAST TO WEST TOWARDS THE 35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH 20-30%. LOW 800-500MB LAPSE RATES AND A
WARM NOSE NEAR 500MB WILL HAMPER DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. AN UPDATE DURING THE AFTN MAY REMOVE THE CURRENT
THUNDER WORDING AND BE REPLACED WITH GENERAL SHOWERS INSTEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST AREAS. STILL THINK THERE IS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MENTION
TEMPO GROUPS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AFTER 16Z-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 04/08Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT OR BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WV IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE SE TX AND LA GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING ONSHORE...BUT THE COVERAGE IS LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...BUT A ROGUE
SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO OUR SE COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOW
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
EVENINGS...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO MOVE IN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND
RETROGRADES UNDER THE RIDGE AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL HELP CAUSE A
0.2-0.3 INCH SURGE IN PWAT VALUES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE THAN OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS THAT WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF FROM SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND A FEW HI-RES MODELS FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RETROGRADING SHEAR AXIS DISSIPATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HOT AND GENERALLY DRY DAYS ASIDE FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 RANGE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE COUNTRY FOR ALL OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90S EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THAT REACH THE CENTURY MARK. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND SLIDE TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY JUST PAST THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  95  75  97  76 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  94  73  96  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  96  74  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  97  76  98  77 /  10  10  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  75  95  75 /  10  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  96  74  97  73 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  75  96  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  94  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  95  76  96  76 /  20  10  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  96  76  97  75 /  20  10  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 031729
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR LEVEL CIGS WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL COME LATE
MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING WITH TODAYS FORECAST
ON TRACK WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE WISE. ONE SMALL ADJUSTMENT MADE
WAS SLIGHTLY REDUCING THE 30% POP IN LAVACA AND FAYETTE COUNTIES
TO 20% AND SHIFTING THE 30% AREA INTO KARNES COUNTY THROUGH 1PM.
THIS SHIFTING WAS DUE TO ONGOING RADAR TRENDS. HOURLY DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN LOCATIONS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES ARE OUT AND MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW
IN THE UPDATED DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION... SOME SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE COAST AND EXTEND
INLAND INTO DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE I-35/37 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SEA-BREEZE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. WATER VAPOR AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO SE OF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS FEATURE MAY BE JUST DISTANT
ENOUGH NOT TO HAVE TO MUCH BEARING ON OUR WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN
DEEPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST. THIS FLOW MAY HELP SOME
SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY PUSH FROM THE EAST TO WEST TOWARDS THE 35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH 20-30%. LOW 800-500MB LAPSE RATES AND A
WARM NOSE NEAR 500MB WILL HAMPER DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. AN UPDATE DURING THE AFTN MAY REMOVE THE CURRENT
THUNDER WORDING AND BE REPLACED WITH GENERAL SHOWERS INSTEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST AREAS. STILL THINK THERE IS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MENTION
TEMPO GROUPS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AFTER 16Z-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 04/08Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT OR BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WV IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE SE TX AND LA GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING ONSHORE...BUT THE COVERAGE IS LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...BUT A ROGUE
SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO OUR SE COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOW
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
EVENINGS...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO MOVE IN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND
RETROGRADES UNDER THE RIDGE AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL HELP CAUSE A
0.2-0.3 INCH SURGE IN PWAT VALUES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE THAN OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS THAT WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF FROM SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND A FEW HI-RES MODELS FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RETROGRADING SHEAR AXIS DISSIPATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HOT AND GENERALLY DRY DAYS ASIDE FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 RANGE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE COUNTRY FOR ALL OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90S EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THAT REACH THE CENTURY MARK. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND SLIDE TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY JUST PAST THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  95  75  97  76 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  94  73  96  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  96  74  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  97  76  98  77 /  10  10  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  75  95  75 /  10  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  96  74  97  73 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  75  96  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  94  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  95  76  96  76 /  20  10  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  96  76  97  75 /  20  10  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 031729
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR LEVEL CIGS WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL COME LATE
MORNING FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING WITH TODAYS FORECAST
ON TRACK WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE WISE. ONE SMALL ADJUSTMENT MADE
WAS SLIGHTLY REDUCING THE 30% POP IN LAVACA AND FAYETTE COUNTIES
TO 20% AND SHIFTING THE 30% AREA INTO KARNES COUNTY THROUGH 1PM.
THIS SHIFTING WAS DUE TO ONGOING RADAR TRENDS. HOURLY DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN LOCATIONS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES ARE OUT AND MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW
IN THE UPDATED DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION... SOME SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE COAST AND EXTEND
INLAND INTO DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE I-35/37 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SEA-BREEZE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. WATER VAPOR AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO SE OF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS FEATURE MAY BE JUST DISTANT
ENOUGH NOT TO HAVE TO MUCH BEARING ON OUR WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN
DEEPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST. THIS FLOW MAY HELP SOME
SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY PUSH FROM THE EAST TO WEST TOWARDS THE 35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH 20-30%. LOW 800-500MB LAPSE RATES AND A
WARM NOSE NEAR 500MB WILL HAMPER DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. AN UPDATE DURING THE AFTN MAY REMOVE THE CURRENT
THUNDER WORDING AND BE REPLACED WITH GENERAL SHOWERS INSTEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST AREAS. STILL THINK THERE IS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MENTION
TEMPO GROUPS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AFTER 16Z-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 04/08Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT OR BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WV IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE SE TX AND LA GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING ONSHORE...BUT THE COVERAGE IS LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...BUT A ROGUE
SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO OUR SE COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOW
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
EVENINGS...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO MOVE IN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND
RETROGRADES UNDER THE RIDGE AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL HELP CAUSE A
0.2-0.3 INCH SURGE IN PWAT VALUES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE THAN OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS THAT WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF FROM SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND A FEW HI-RES MODELS FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RETROGRADING SHEAR AXIS DISSIPATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HOT AND GENERALLY DRY DAYS ASIDE FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 RANGE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE COUNTRY FOR ALL OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90S EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THAT REACH THE CENTURY MARK. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND SLIDE TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY JUST PAST THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  95  75  97  76 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  94  73  96  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  96  74  97  75 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  94  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  97  76  98  77 /  10  10  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  75  95  75 /  10  10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  96  74  97  73 /  10  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  75  96  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  94  75  95  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  95  76  96  76 /  20  10  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  96  76  97  75 /  20  10  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KSJT 031728
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1228 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through the afternoon and evening. THE MVFR cigs across the
southern sections has eroded and lifted, leaving just a scattered
cu field in its place. This should expand across much of the area
this afternoon and then dissipate this evening. Low clouds and
MVFR cigs noted by the models once again across the southern
locations of KJCT (Junction), KSOA (Sonora), and KBBD (Brady) for
Friday morning and have added to the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Scattered upper level clouds have held low cloud development in
check early this morning. MVFR CIGs are finally starting to become
organized, and should at least affect KSOA and KJCT intermittently
for a few hours this morning. Will leave them out at KSJT and KBBD
for now, but will amend if needed. After 15Z this morning, any
ceilings that have developed should scatter out, leaving VFR
conditions through the rest of the TAF period, with continued
south to southeast winds of around 10 knots or less. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Very few changes are needed to the general theme of the short term
forecast. The upper level ridge will move very little with the ridge
axis falling southwest to northeast across our CWA today. This will
keep temperatures hot, and rain chances minimal. High resolution
models again try to generate isolated showers this afternoon and
evening, but with the ridge basically centered on top of the CWA,
this would be unexpected. Temperatures will be very similar to the
past few days.

20

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper ridge over the central part of the nation will begin to
shift to the east on Thursday in response to an upper low entering
the Pacific Northwest. By this weekend the upper low will have
moved over the northern Rockies with the upper ridge becoming
positively tilted from Texas to the Great Lakes as a broad upper
trough begins to encompass all of the the western CONUS. However,
the upper high will continue to be centered over Central Texas
concomitant with continued dry weather for the forecast area. A
cold front associated with the upper low will push south into the
Panhandle late this weekend and into the first of next week and is
not expected to enter the northern Big Country until Wednesday. As
the upper high over Central Texas begins to retreat westward, the
flow aloft over West Central Texas will finally begin shifting to
the northwest by mid-week. The best chance of convective activity
should be on Wednesday primarily over the Big Country as upper
disturbances traverse our area in the northwest flow aloft
juxtaposed with the aforementioned cold front. However, the GFS
and ECMWF both carry a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over the northwest Big Country during the day on Tuesday. Will
leave this slight chance in the forecast with the caveat that the
best chance of precipitation still looks to be on Wednesday over
most of the Big Country.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  72  94  74 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  71  95  74 /   5   0  10   5
Junction  94  72  93  72 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KSJT 031728
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1228 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through the afternoon and evening. THE MVFR cigs across the
southern sections has eroded and lifted, leaving just a scattered
cu field in its place. This should expand across much of the area
this afternoon and then dissipate this evening. Low clouds and
MVFR cigs noted by the models once again across the southern
locations of KJCT (Junction), KSOA (Sonora), and KBBD (Brady) for
Friday morning and have added to the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Scattered upper level clouds have held low cloud development in
check early this morning. MVFR CIGs are finally starting to become
organized, and should at least affect KSOA and KJCT intermittently
for a few hours this morning. Will leave them out at KSJT and KBBD
for now, but will amend if needed. After 15Z this morning, any
ceilings that have developed should scatter out, leaving VFR
conditions through the rest of the TAF period, with continued
south to southeast winds of around 10 knots or less. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Very few changes are needed to the general theme of the short term
forecast. The upper level ridge will move very little with the ridge
axis falling southwest to northeast across our CWA today. This will
keep temperatures hot, and rain chances minimal. High resolution
models again try to generate isolated showers this afternoon and
evening, but with the ridge basically centered on top of the CWA,
this would be unexpected. Temperatures will be very similar to the
past few days.

20

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper ridge over the central part of the nation will begin to
shift to the east on Thursday in response to an upper low entering
the Pacific Northwest. By this weekend the upper low will have
moved over the northern Rockies with the upper ridge becoming
positively tilted from Texas to the Great Lakes as a broad upper
trough begins to encompass all of the the western CONUS. However,
the upper high will continue to be centered over Central Texas
concomitant with continued dry weather for the forecast area. A
cold front associated with the upper low will push south into the
Panhandle late this weekend and into the first of next week and is
not expected to enter the northern Big Country until Wednesday. As
the upper high over Central Texas begins to retreat westward, the
flow aloft over West Central Texas will finally begin shifting to
the northwest by mid-week. The best chance of convective activity
should be on Wednesday primarily over the Big Country as upper
disturbances traverse our area in the northwest flow aloft
juxtaposed with the aforementioned cold front. However, the GFS
and ECMWF both carry a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over the northwest Big Country during the day on Tuesday. Will
leave this slight chance in the forecast with the caveat that the
best chance of precipitation still looks to be on Wednesday over
most of the Big Country.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  72  94  74 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  71  95  74 /   5   0  10   5
Junction  94  72  93  72 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KSJT 031728
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1228 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through the afternoon and evening. THE MVFR cigs across the
southern sections has eroded and lifted, leaving just a scattered
cu field in its place. This should expand across much of the area
this afternoon and then dissipate this evening. Low clouds and
MVFR cigs noted by the models once again across the southern
locations of KJCT (Junction), KSOA (Sonora), and KBBD (Brady) for
Friday morning and have added to the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Scattered upper level clouds have held low cloud development in
check early this morning. MVFR CIGs are finally starting to become
organized, and should at least affect KSOA and KJCT intermittently
for a few hours this morning. Will leave them out at KSJT and KBBD
for now, but will amend if needed. After 15Z this morning, any
ceilings that have developed should scatter out, leaving VFR
conditions through the rest of the TAF period, with continued
south to southeast winds of around 10 knots or less. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Very few changes are needed to the general theme of the short term
forecast. The upper level ridge will move very little with the ridge
axis falling southwest to northeast across our CWA today. This will
keep temperatures hot, and rain chances minimal. High resolution
models again try to generate isolated showers this afternoon and
evening, but with the ridge basically centered on top of the CWA,
this would be unexpected. Temperatures will be very similar to the
past few days.

20

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper ridge over the central part of the nation will begin to
shift to the east on Thursday in response to an upper low entering
the Pacific Northwest. By this weekend the upper low will have
moved over the northern Rockies with the upper ridge becoming
positively tilted from Texas to the Great Lakes as a broad upper
trough begins to encompass all of the the western CONUS. However,
the upper high will continue to be centered over Central Texas
concomitant with continued dry weather for the forecast area. A
cold front associated with the upper low will push south into the
Panhandle late this weekend and into the first of next week and is
not expected to enter the northern Big Country until Wednesday. As
the upper high over Central Texas begins to retreat westward, the
flow aloft over West Central Texas will finally begin shifting to
the northwest by mid-week. The best chance of convective activity
should be on Wednesday primarily over the Big Country as upper
disturbances traverse our area in the northwest flow aloft
juxtaposed with the aforementioned cold front. However, the GFS
and ECMWF both carry a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over the northwest Big Country during the day on Tuesday. Will
leave this slight chance in the forecast with the caveat that the
best chance of precipitation still looks to be on Wednesday over
most of the Big Country.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  72  94  74 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  71  95  74 /   5   0  10   5
Junction  94  72  93  72 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KSJT 031728
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1228 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through the afternoon and evening. THE MVFR cigs across the
southern sections has eroded and lifted, leaving just a scattered
cu field in its place. This should expand across much of the area
this afternoon and then dissipate this evening. Low clouds and
MVFR cigs noted by the models once again across the southern
locations of KJCT (Junction), KSOA (Sonora), and KBBD (Brady) for
Friday morning and have added to the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Scattered upper level clouds have held low cloud development in
check early this morning. MVFR CIGs are finally starting to become
organized, and should at least affect KSOA and KJCT intermittently
for a few hours this morning. Will leave them out at KSJT and KBBD
for now, but will amend if needed. After 15Z this morning, any
ceilings that have developed should scatter out, leaving VFR
conditions through the rest of the TAF period, with continued
south to southeast winds of around 10 knots or less. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Very few changes are needed to the general theme of the short term
forecast. The upper level ridge will move very little with the ridge
axis falling southwest to northeast across our CWA today. This will
keep temperatures hot, and rain chances minimal. High resolution
models again try to generate isolated showers this afternoon and
evening, but with the ridge basically centered on top of the CWA,
this would be unexpected. Temperatures will be very similar to the
past few days.

20

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper ridge over the central part of the nation will begin to
shift to the east on Thursday in response to an upper low entering
the Pacific Northwest. By this weekend the upper low will have
moved over the northern Rockies with the upper ridge becoming
positively tilted from Texas to the Great Lakes as a broad upper
trough begins to encompass all of the the western CONUS. However,
the upper high will continue to be centered over Central Texas
concomitant with continued dry weather for the forecast area. A
cold front associated with the upper low will push south into the
Panhandle late this weekend and into the first of next week and is
not expected to enter the northern Big Country until Wednesday. As
the upper high over Central Texas begins to retreat westward, the
flow aloft over West Central Texas will finally begin shifting to
the northwest by mid-week. The best chance of convective activity
should be on Wednesday primarily over the Big Country as upper
disturbances traverse our area in the northwest flow aloft
juxtaposed with the aforementioned cold front. However, the GFS
and ECMWF both carry a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over the northwest Big Country during the day on Tuesday. Will
leave this slight chance in the forecast with the caveat that the
best chance of precipitation still looks to be on Wednesday over
most of the Big Country.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  72  94  74 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  71  95  74 /   5   0  10   5
Junction  94  72  93  72 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KSJT 031728
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1228 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through the afternoon and evening. THE MVFR cigs across the
southern sections has eroded and lifted, leaving just a scattered
cu field in its place. This should expand across much of the area
this afternoon and then dissipate this evening. Low clouds and
MVFR cigs noted by the models once again across the southern
locations of KJCT (Junction), KSOA (Sonora), and KBBD (Brady) for
Friday morning and have added to the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Scattered upper level clouds have held low cloud development in
check early this morning. MVFR CIGs are finally starting to become
organized, and should at least affect KSOA and KJCT intermittently
for a few hours this morning. Will leave them out at KSJT and KBBD
for now, but will amend if needed. After 15Z this morning, any
ceilings that have developed should scatter out, leaving VFR
conditions through the rest of the TAF period, with continued
south to southeast winds of around 10 knots or less. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Very few changes are needed to the general theme of the short term
forecast. The upper level ridge will move very little with the ridge
axis falling southwest to northeast across our CWA today. This will
keep temperatures hot, and rain chances minimal. High resolution
models again try to generate isolated showers this afternoon and
evening, but with the ridge basically centered on top of the CWA,
this would be unexpected. Temperatures will be very similar to the
past few days.

20

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper ridge over the central part of the nation will begin to
shift to the east on Thursday in response to an upper low entering
the Pacific Northwest. By this weekend the upper low will have
moved over the northern Rockies with the upper ridge becoming
positively tilted from Texas to the Great Lakes as a broad upper
trough begins to encompass all of the the western CONUS. However,
the upper high will continue to be centered over Central Texas
concomitant with continued dry weather for the forecast area. A
cold front associated with the upper low will push south into the
Panhandle late this weekend and into the first of next week and is
not expected to enter the northern Big Country until Wednesday. As
the upper high over Central Texas begins to retreat westward, the
flow aloft over West Central Texas will finally begin shifting to
the northwest by mid-week. The best chance of convective activity
should be on Wednesday primarily over the Big Country as upper
disturbances traverse our area in the northwest flow aloft
juxtaposed with the aforementioned cold front. However, the GFS
and ECMWF both carry a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over the northwest Big Country during the day on Tuesday. Will
leave this slight chance in the forecast with the caveat that the
best chance of precipitation still looks to be on Wednesday over
most of the Big Country.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  72  94  74 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  71  95  74 /   5   0  10   5
Junction  94  72  93  72 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KSJT 031728
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1228 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions should prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through the afternoon and evening. THE MVFR cigs across the
southern sections has eroded and lifted, leaving just a scattered
cu field in its place. This should expand across much of the area
this afternoon and then dissipate this evening. Low clouds and
MVFR cigs noted by the models once again across the southern
locations of KJCT (Junction), KSOA (Sonora), and KBBD (Brady) for
Friday morning and have added to the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Scattered upper level clouds have held low cloud development in
check early this morning. MVFR CIGs are finally starting to become
organized, and should at least affect KSOA and KJCT intermittently
for a few hours this morning. Will leave them out at KSJT and KBBD
for now, but will amend if needed. After 15Z this morning, any
ceilings that have developed should scatter out, leaving VFR
conditions through the rest of the TAF period, with continued
south to southeast winds of around 10 knots or less. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Very few changes are needed to the general theme of the short term
forecast. The upper level ridge will move very little with the ridge
axis falling southwest to northeast across our CWA today. This will
keep temperatures hot, and rain chances minimal. High resolution
models again try to generate isolated showers this afternoon and
evening, but with the ridge basically centered on top of the CWA,
this would be unexpected. Temperatures will be very similar to the
past few days.

20

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper ridge over the central part of the nation will begin to
shift to the east on Thursday in response to an upper low entering
the Pacific Northwest. By this weekend the upper low will have
moved over the northern Rockies with the upper ridge becoming
positively tilted from Texas to the Great Lakes as a broad upper
trough begins to encompass all of the the western CONUS. However,
the upper high will continue to be centered over Central Texas
concomitant with continued dry weather for the forecast area. A
cold front associated with the upper low will push south into the
Panhandle late this weekend and into the first of next week and is
not expected to enter the northern Big Country until Wednesday. As
the upper high over Central Texas begins to retreat westward, the
flow aloft over West Central Texas will finally begin shifting to
the northwest by mid-week. The best chance of convective activity
should be on Wednesday primarily over the Big Country as upper
disturbances traverse our area in the northwest flow aloft
juxtaposed with the aforementioned cold front. However, the GFS
and ECMWF both carry a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
over the northwest Big Country during the day on Tuesday. Will
leave this slight chance in the forecast with the caveat that the
best chance of precipitation still looks to be on Wednesday over
most of the Big Country.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  95  72  94  74 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  97  71  95  74 /   5   0  10   5
Junction  94  72  93  72 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07



000
FXUS64 KAMA 031724
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STRENGTHENING AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 02Z. LATER THIS EVENINGS WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY BEFORE VEERING AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
SHOULD BE WEST OF KDHT CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BASIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE NEAR TERM.  LOW DIURNAL POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...OWING TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...COOLER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFS...AND
PERSISTENCE OF SURFACE TROF.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER
EAST...WITH HIGHER 700 MB THETA-E ALSO SHIFTING EAST.  EXPECTED LACK
OF COOL POOL IN MID-LEVELS AND LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEAD US
TO REMOVE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SUNDAY MORNING ALSO KEPT DRY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO LOWER
ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION OF LOW POPS IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND/OR SOME
SEMBLANCE OF DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS ON
MONDAY.  EXPECTED DRY-SLOTTING MONDAY NIGHT WARRANTS REMOVAL OF POPS
FROM NORTHWEST.

HUGE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAKE FOR
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE LATER PERIODS.  HOWEVER...LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED OR INCREASED AS POLAR FRONT WILL LIKELY
BRING MOISTURE WITH IT WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17



000
FXUS64 KAMA 031724
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STRENGTHENING AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 02Z. LATER THIS EVENINGS WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY BEFORE VEERING AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
SHOULD BE WEST OF KDHT CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BASIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE NEAR TERM.  LOW DIURNAL POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...OWING TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...COOLER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFS...AND
PERSISTENCE OF SURFACE TROF.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER
EAST...WITH HIGHER 700 MB THETA-E ALSO SHIFTING EAST.  EXPECTED LACK
OF COOL POOL IN MID-LEVELS AND LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEAD US
TO REMOVE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SUNDAY MORNING ALSO KEPT DRY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO LOWER
ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION OF LOW POPS IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND/OR SOME
SEMBLANCE OF DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS ON
MONDAY.  EXPECTED DRY-SLOTTING MONDAY NIGHT WARRANTS REMOVAL OF POPS
FROM NORTHWEST.

HUGE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAKE FOR
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE LATER PERIODS.  HOWEVER...LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED OR INCREASED AS POLAR FRONT WILL LIKELY
BRING MOISTURE WITH IT WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17




000
FXUS64 KAMA 031724
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1224 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STRENGTHENING AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 02Z. LATER THIS EVENINGS WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY BEFORE VEERING AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
SHOULD BE WEST OF KDHT CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BASIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE NEAR TERM.  LOW DIURNAL POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...OWING TO CONTINUED MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...COOLER MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFS...AND
PERSISTENCE OF SURFACE TROF.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER
EAST...WITH HIGHER 700 MB THETA-E ALSO SHIFTING EAST.  EXPECTED LACK
OF COOL POOL IN MID-LEVELS AND LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEAD US
TO REMOVE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SUNDAY MORNING ALSO KEPT DRY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO LOWER
ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION OF LOW POPS IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND/OR SOME
SEMBLANCE OF DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS ON
MONDAY.  EXPECTED DRY-SLOTTING MONDAY NIGHT WARRANTS REMOVAL OF POPS
FROM NORTHWEST.

HUGE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAKE FOR
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE LATER PERIODS.  HOWEVER...LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL BE RETAINED OR INCREASED AS POLAR FRONT WILL LIKELY
BRING MOISTURE WITH IT WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17



000
FXUS64 KFWD 031722
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAT PERIOD....WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
8 KTS.

AJS

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY
AND RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DO MANAGE TO REACH NORTH TEXAS WILL BE
BRIEF AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND RESULT IN HOT AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S WITH EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS AROUND THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH THE
RED RIVER COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

BETTER RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS
NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALLOWS THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  77  96  78  97 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              94  76  95  76  97 /  10   5  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             95  73  95  73  96 /   5   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            95  75  95  76  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  74  95  76  95 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            95  78  96  79  97 /   5   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           94  75  96  77  95 /   5   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         93  75  97  77  95 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  73  96  74  97 /  10   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     95  73  96  74  96 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 031722
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAT PERIOD....WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
8 KTS.

AJS

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY
AND RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DO MANAGE TO REACH NORTH TEXAS WILL BE
BRIEF AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND RESULT IN HOT AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S WITH EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS AROUND THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH THE
RED RIVER COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

BETTER RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS
NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALLOWS THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  77  96  78  97 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              94  76  95  76  97 /  10   5  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             95  73  95  73  96 /   5   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            95  75  95  76  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  74  95  76  95 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            95  78  96  79  97 /   5   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           94  75  96  77  95 /   5   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         93  75  97  77  95 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  73  96  74  97 /  10   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     95  73  96  74  96 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 031722
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAT PERIOD....WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
8 KTS.

AJS

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY
AND RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DO MANAGE TO REACH NORTH TEXAS WILL BE
BRIEF AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND RESULT IN HOT AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S WITH EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS AROUND THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH THE
RED RIVER COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

BETTER RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS
NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALLOWS THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  77  96  78  97 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              94  76  95  76  97 /  10   5  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             95  73  95  73  96 /   5   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            95  75  95  76  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  74  95  76  95 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            95  78  96  79  97 /   5   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           94  75  96  77  95 /   5   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         93  75  97  77  95 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  73  96  74  97 /  10   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     95  73  96  74  96 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 031722
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1222 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS FORECAT PERIOD....WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
8 KTS.

AJS

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST TODAY
AND RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WHICH DO MANAGE TO REACH NORTH TEXAS WILL BE
BRIEF AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND RESULT IN HOT AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S WITH EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS AROUND THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TO REACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH THE
RED RIVER COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

BETTER RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS
NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALLOWS THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  77  96  78  97 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              94  76  95  76  97 /  10   5  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             95  73  95  73  96 /   5   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            95  75  95  76  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          94  74  95  76  95 /   5   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            95  78  96  79  97 /   5   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           94  75  96  77  95 /   5   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         93  75  97  77  95 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  73  96  74  97 /  10   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     95  73  96  74  96 /   5   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 031718
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Much like the last couple of
days, gusty SE winds expected through the afternoon then speeds
diminish this evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge extending up from Mexico... across TX... into the
Southern Plains states still in control of area wx.  Will have
increasing high clouds drifting over the area as Pacific moisture
gets pulled around the west side of the upper ridge.  An upper
trough will move ashore the NW coast today and dig down into the
Great Basin but will not dislodge the ridge... so warm and dry wx
will continue.

Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the weekend
into next week.  Highs mostly in the 90s... lows mainly in the 60s
to lower 70s.  Locations along the Rio Grande may exceed 100 the
next few days.  GFS does show a cold front moving down into the area
next Thursday so some cooler temperatures are possible late next
week.

September is the wettest month of the year at MAF.  However only
had a few showers yesterday over the Guadalupes and west of Van
Horn.  Could see a few showers or storms over the Guadalupes
southward into the Marfa Plateau this afternoon and over the
higher elevations again Friday.  Low rain chances continue into next
week.  The best chance of rain looks to be with the front next Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27



000
FXUS64 KMAF 031718
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Much like the last couple of
days, gusty SE winds expected through the afternoon then speeds
diminish this evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge extending up from Mexico... across TX... into the
Southern Plains states still in control of area wx.  Will have
increasing high clouds drifting over the area as Pacific moisture
gets pulled around the west side of the upper ridge.  An upper
trough will move ashore the NW coast today and dig down into the
Great Basin but will not dislodge the ridge... so warm and dry wx
will continue.

Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the weekend
into next week.  Highs mostly in the 90s... lows mainly in the 60s
to lower 70s.  Locations along the Rio Grande may exceed 100 the
next few days.  GFS does show a cold front moving down into the area
next Thursday so some cooler temperatures are possible late next
week.

September is the wettest month of the year at MAF.  However only
had a few showers yesterday over the Guadalupes and west of Van
Horn.  Could see a few showers or storms over the Guadalupes
southward into the Marfa Plateau this afternoon and over the
higher elevations again Friday.  Low rain chances continue into next
week.  The best chance of rain looks to be with the front next Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27




000
FXUS64 KLUB 031710
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1210 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS BARELY EAST OF THE
AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERHEAD. PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY APPROXIMATELY 30 TO 50 MILES WEST OF
KPVW. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND GIVING WE ARE STILL IN LATE SUMMER...THIS PRETTY MUCH SPELLS
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  590DAM HIGH
EXISTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES.  LOW IS NOW ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WE HAVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN.  INFLUENCE ON MONSOONAL FETCH
APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING /ABOUT 20-30 MI/
AND GIVEN INDICATIONS IN THIS MORNING/S FCST SOUNDING DATA...IT
WOULD APPEAR SOME MENTION OF POPS UP PARMER COUNTY WAY ARE
WARRANTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

LONG TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE SW TO NE ORIENTED UA RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
JUST A BIT TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND DUE TO A NW
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS SUCH...THIS COULD ALLOW THE FETCH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE /AND ADDED PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IN THE ERN PACIFIC/ TO IMPINGE ON THE
FAR WRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...AND ARE ALSO SHOWING THE
MOISTURE PLUM TO THIN WITH TIME. IT IS NO WONDER THAT THE MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...THOUGH THE NAM IS RATHER BULLISH AND
STICKING TO ITS GUNS FOR CI ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A
SFC TROUGH AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS DEFINITELY
PLAUSIBLE AND CAN NOT BE IGNORED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NWRN ZONES ON SATURDAY. BY LATE
WEEKEND...THE UA RIDGE WILL HAVE RETROGRADED BACK ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILST DE-
AMPLIFYING A BIT...THANKS TO THE NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ENE TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. EMBEDDED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...WHILE
CONCURRENTLY A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
COULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HINT AT A STRONGER FRONT BEING ABLE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY/FRIDAY PROMOTING YET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. THIS IS
ALL ASSUMING THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL IN FACT PUSH SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND MAKE WAY FOR THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES.

ASIDE FOR POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER /WHICH COULD CAUSE HIGHS TO FALL INTO THE 80S AND
90S/...HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  88 /  20  10  10  20
TULIA         63  90  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  90  64  90 /   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  91  63  89 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  91  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   64  90  64  89 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  90 /   0  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     70  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          67  94  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     70  95  70  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05



000
FXUS64 KLUB 031710
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1210 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS BARELY EAST OF THE
AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERHEAD. PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY APPROXIMATELY 30 TO 50 MILES WEST OF
KPVW. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND GIVING WE ARE STILL IN LATE SUMMER...THIS PRETTY MUCH SPELLS
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  590DAM HIGH
EXISTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES.  LOW IS NOW ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WE HAVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN.  INFLUENCE ON MONSOONAL FETCH
APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING /ABOUT 20-30 MI/
AND GIVEN INDICATIONS IN THIS MORNING/S FCST SOUNDING DATA...IT
WOULD APPEAR SOME MENTION OF POPS UP PARMER COUNTY WAY ARE
WARRANTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

LONG TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE SW TO NE ORIENTED UA RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
JUST A BIT TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND DUE TO A NW
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS SUCH...THIS COULD ALLOW THE FETCH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE /AND ADDED PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IN THE ERN PACIFIC/ TO IMPINGE ON THE
FAR WRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...AND ARE ALSO SHOWING THE
MOISTURE PLUM TO THIN WITH TIME. IT IS NO WONDER THAT THE MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...THOUGH THE NAM IS RATHER BULLISH AND
STICKING TO ITS GUNS FOR CI ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A
SFC TROUGH AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS DEFINITELY
PLAUSIBLE AND CAN NOT BE IGNORED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NWRN ZONES ON SATURDAY. BY LATE
WEEKEND...THE UA RIDGE WILL HAVE RETROGRADED BACK ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILST DE-
AMPLIFYING A BIT...THANKS TO THE NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ENE TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. EMBEDDED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...WHILE
CONCURRENTLY A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
COULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HINT AT A STRONGER FRONT BEING ABLE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY/FRIDAY PROMOTING YET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. THIS IS
ALL ASSUMING THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL IN FACT PUSH SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND MAKE WAY FOR THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES.

ASIDE FOR POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER /WHICH COULD CAUSE HIGHS TO FALL INTO THE 80S AND
90S/...HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  88 /  20  10  10  20
TULIA         63  90  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  90  64  90 /   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  91  63  89 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  91  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   64  90  64  89 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  90 /   0  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     70  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          67  94  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     70  95  70  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 031710
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1210 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS BARELY EAST OF THE
AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERHEAD. PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY APPROXIMATELY 30 TO 50 MILES WEST OF
KPVW. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND GIVING WE ARE STILL IN LATE SUMMER...THIS PRETTY MUCH SPELLS
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  590DAM HIGH
EXISTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES.  LOW IS NOW ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WE HAVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN.  INFLUENCE ON MONSOONAL FETCH
APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING /ABOUT 20-30 MI/
AND GIVEN INDICATIONS IN THIS MORNING/S FCST SOUNDING DATA...IT
WOULD APPEAR SOME MENTION OF POPS UP PARMER COUNTY WAY ARE
WARRANTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

LONG TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE SW TO NE ORIENTED UA RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
JUST A BIT TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND DUE TO A NW
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS SUCH...THIS COULD ALLOW THE FETCH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE /AND ADDED PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IN THE ERN PACIFIC/ TO IMPINGE ON THE
FAR WRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...AND ARE ALSO SHOWING THE
MOISTURE PLUM TO THIN WITH TIME. IT IS NO WONDER THAT THE MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...THOUGH THE NAM IS RATHER BULLISH AND
STICKING TO ITS GUNS FOR CI ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A
SFC TROUGH AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS DEFINITELY
PLAUSIBLE AND CAN NOT BE IGNORED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NWRN ZONES ON SATURDAY. BY LATE
WEEKEND...THE UA RIDGE WILL HAVE RETROGRADED BACK ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILST DE-
AMPLIFYING A BIT...THANKS TO THE NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ENE TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. EMBEDDED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...WHILE
CONCURRENTLY A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
COULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HINT AT A STRONGER FRONT BEING ABLE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY/FRIDAY PROMOTING YET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. THIS IS
ALL ASSUMING THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL IN FACT PUSH SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND MAKE WAY FOR THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES.

ASIDE FOR POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER /WHICH COULD CAUSE HIGHS TO FALL INTO THE 80S AND
90S/...HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  88 /  20  10  10  20
TULIA         63  90  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  90  64  90 /   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  91  63  89 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  91  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   64  90  64  89 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  90 /   0  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     70  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          67  94  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     70  95  70  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 031710
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1210 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS BARELY EAST OF THE
AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERHEAD. PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY APPROXIMATELY 30 TO 50 MILES WEST OF
KPVW. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND GIVING WE ARE STILL IN LATE SUMMER...THIS PRETTY MUCH SPELLS
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  590DAM HIGH
EXISTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES.  LOW IS NOW ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WE HAVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN.  INFLUENCE ON MONSOONAL FETCH
APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING /ABOUT 20-30 MI/
AND GIVEN INDICATIONS IN THIS MORNING/S FCST SOUNDING DATA...IT
WOULD APPEAR SOME MENTION OF POPS UP PARMER COUNTY WAY ARE
WARRANTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

LONG TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE SW TO NE ORIENTED UA RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
JUST A BIT TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND DUE TO A NW
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS SUCH...THIS COULD ALLOW THE FETCH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE /AND ADDED PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IN THE ERN PACIFIC/ TO IMPINGE ON THE
FAR WRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...AND ARE ALSO SHOWING THE
MOISTURE PLUM TO THIN WITH TIME. IT IS NO WONDER THAT THE MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...THOUGH THE NAM IS RATHER BULLISH AND
STICKING TO ITS GUNS FOR CI ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A
SFC TROUGH AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS DEFINITELY
PLAUSIBLE AND CAN NOT BE IGNORED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NWRN ZONES ON SATURDAY. BY LATE
WEEKEND...THE UA RIDGE WILL HAVE RETROGRADED BACK ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILST DE-
AMPLIFYING A BIT...THANKS TO THE NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ENE TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. EMBEDDED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...WHILE
CONCURRENTLY A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
COULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HINT AT A STRONGER FRONT BEING ABLE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY/FRIDAY PROMOTING YET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. THIS IS
ALL ASSUMING THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL IN FACT PUSH SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND MAKE WAY FOR THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES.

ASIDE FOR POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER /WHICH COULD CAUSE HIGHS TO FALL INTO THE 80S AND
90S/...HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  88 /  20  10  10  20
TULIA         63  90  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  90  64  90 /   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  91  63  89 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  91  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   64  90  64  89 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  90 /   0  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     70  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          67  94  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     70  95  70  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05



000
FXUS64 KHGX 031527
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1027 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES AT CRP ARE 1.93 AND 2.21 INCHES AT LCH. CRP SOUNDING
SHOWS A BIT MORE DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB WHILE THE LCH SOUNDING IS
SATURATED UP TO 500 MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LOUISIANA. 850 MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL OVER S/SE TX AND A WEAK 850 TROUGH
EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL LA IN EXTREME EAST TX. A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH EXTENDED N-S ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTH CENTRAL LA INTO EAST TX. AT 250
MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXPANDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS
FEATURE IS IMPINGING ON SE TX. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPART
SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MORE SO ON FRI/SAT. THAT
SAID...MOISTURE LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA/ISO TSRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
30/40 POPS SHOULD COVER IT AND THIS IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
THE FOG/LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING HAS FOSTERED A COOLER START SO
WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO FROM MAX TEMPS EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING...
ALMOST ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR.
HOWEVER WILL BE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THRU
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE PESKY UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LATEST WET PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE HANGING ON OVER THE WRN GULF BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FILL
IN/WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE TAKING HOLD. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND. GFS
KEEPING WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
THE VERIFICATION TRENDS OF LATE HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THE WETTER
PROGS. AS SUCH WILL KEEP WITH THE GENERALLY DIURNAL POPS ALREADY
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MID/EXTENDED RANGE PART OF THE FCST. AS FOR
THE LONG-LONG RANGE PART OF THE FCST WHERE LAST NIGHTS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEXT FRI...ECMWF NOW BACKING
OFF A BIT WHEREAS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE BUYING IN. HMMM. 41

MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM THEN SHIFT
INLAND. PW OF 2" STILL DRAPED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND BAYS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING FOR
THE COMING WEEK. WINDS THIS MORNING WERE 10-15 KNOTS BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SO EXPECT THE 3 FOOT SEAS TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS IN GENERAL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL BUT PROBABLY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE.
45

AVIATION...
VFR AT MOST SITES THOUGH SOME LIFR CIGS SHOWING UP AT DWH-CXO AND
EASTWARD EXPANDING INLAND. UTS WILL LIKELY BE THE NEXT TO DROP.
WILL BE CLOSE AT IAH WITH FEW ALREADY. QUICK HEATING AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY SHOULD KEEP THESE SHORT LIVED. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE TO
THE VCSH WORDING IN TAFS AND LIKELY WAIT TO SEE IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER AS THE SHOWERS WORK INLAND THIS MORNING OVERCOMING THE
DRIER AIR INLAND.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  75  94  76  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  75  93  76  94 /  30  30  30  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  79  88  79  90 /  30  30  40  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 031527
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1027 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PW VALUES AT CRP ARE 1.93 AND 2.21 INCHES AT LCH. CRP SOUNDING
SHOWS A BIT MORE DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB WHILE THE LCH SOUNDING IS
SATURATED UP TO 500 MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR OVER
EASTERN TEXAS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER LOUISIANA. 850 MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL OVER S/SE TX AND A WEAK 850 TROUGH
EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL LA IN EXTREME EAST TX. A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH EXTENDED N-S ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH FROM NORTH CENTRAL LA INTO EAST TX. AT 250
MB...HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXPANDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THIS
FEATURE IS IMPINGING ON SE TX. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPART
SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MORE SO ON FRI/SAT. THAT
SAID...MOISTURE LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHRA/ISO TSRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
30/40 POPS SHOULD COVER IT AND THIS IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
THE FOG/LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING HAS FOSTERED A COOLER START SO
WILL TRIM A DEGREE OR SO FROM MAX TEMPS EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING...
ALMOST ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR.
HOWEVER WILL BE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX THRU
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS. THE PESKY UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS LATEST WET PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE HANGING ON OVER THE WRN GULF BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FILL
IN/WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ITS WAKE...THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BE TAKING HOLD. HOWEVER THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH MODELS FOR THIS WEEKEND. GFS
KEEPING WITH MUCH LOWER POPS THAN THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
THE VERIFICATION TRENDS OF LATE HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST THE WETTER
PROGS. AS SUCH WILL KEEP WITH THE GENERALLY DIURNAL POPS ALREADY
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MID/EXTENDED RANGE PART OF THE FCST. AS FOR
THE LONG-LONG RANGE PART OF THE FCST WHERE LAST NIGHTS RUNS WERE
SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NEXT FRI...ECMWF NOW BACKING
OFF A BIT WHEREAS THE GFS LOOKS TO BE BUYING IN. HMMM. 41

MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM THEN SHIFT
INLAND. PW OF 2" STILL DRAPED OVER THE GULF WATERS AND BAYS AND
SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW GOING FOR
THE COMING WEEK. WINDS THIS MORNING WERE 10-15 KNOTS BUT SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SO EXPECT THE 3 FOOT SEAS TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS IN GENERAL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL BUT PROBABLY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE.
45

AVIATION...
VFR AT MOST SITES THOUGH SOME LIFR CIGS SHOWING UP AT DWH-CXO AND
EASTWARD EXPANDING INLAND. UTS WILL LIKELY BE THE NEXT TO DROP.
WILL BE CLOSE AT IAH WITH FEW ALREADY. QUICK HEATING AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY SHOULD KEEP THESE SHORT LIVED. FOR NOW PLAN TO CONTINUE TO
THE VCSH WORDING IN TAFS AND LIKELY WAIT TO SEE IF THEY HOLD
TOGETHER AS THE SHOWERS WORK INLAND THIS MORNING OVERCOMING THE
DRIER AIR INLAND.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  75  94  76  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  75  93  76  94 /  30  30  30  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  79  88  79  90 /  30  30  40  30  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KCRP 031517
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1017 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AND GULF WATERS. ANTICIPATE
CONVECTION TO PUSH INLAND MORESO WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS WELL ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  76  93  78  93  /  30  20  30  10  20
VICTORIA          91  73  94  73  93  /  40  20  30  10  20
LAREDO            99  77  99  77 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             95  73  95  75  96  /  40  10  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          89  78  89  79  90  /  40  20  40  20  30
COTULLA           99  75  98  75 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  75  95  77  95  /  30  10  30  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       88  77  89  80  90  /  30  20  40  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KEWX 031502
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1002 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING WITH TODAYS FORECAST
ON TRACK WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE WISE. ONE SMALL ADJUSTMENT MADE
WAS SLIGHTLY REDUCING THE 30% POP IN LAVACA AND FAYETTE COUNTIES
TO 20% AND SHIFTING THE 30% AREA INTO KARNES COUNTY THROUGH 1PM.
THIS SHIFTING WAS DUE TO ONGOING RADAR TRENDS. HOURLY DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN LOCATIONS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES ARE OUT AND MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW
IN THE UPDATED DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... SOME SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE COAST AND EXTEND
INLAND INTO DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE I-35/37 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SEA-BREEZE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. WATER VAPOR AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO SE OF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS FEATURE MAY BE JUST DISTANT
ENOUGH NOT TO HAVE TO MUCH BEARING ON OUR WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN
DEEPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST. THIS FLOW MAY HELP SOME
SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY PUSH FROM THE EAST TO WEST TOWARDS THE 35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH 20-30%. LOW 800-500MB LAPSE RATES AND A
WARM NOSE NEAR 500MB WILL HAMPER DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. AN UPDATE DURING THE AFTN MAY REMOVE THE CURRENT
THUNDER WORDING AND BE REPLACED WITH GENERAL SHOWERS INSTEAD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST AREAS. STILL THINK THERE IS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MENTION
TEMPO GROUPS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AFTER 16Z-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 04/08Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT OR BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WV IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE SE TX AND LA GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING ONSHORE...BUT THE COVERAGE IS LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...BUT A ROGUE
SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO OUR SE COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOW
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
EVENINGS...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO MOVE IN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND
RETROGRADES UNDER THE RIDGE AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL HELP CAUSE A
0.2-0.3 INCH SURGE IN PWAT VALUES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE THAN OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS THAT WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF FROM SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND A FEW HI-RES MODELS FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RETROGRADING SHEAR AXIS DISSIPATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HOT AND GENERALLY DRY DAYS ASIDE FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 RANGE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE COUNTRY FOR ALL OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90S EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THAT REACH THE CENTURY MARK. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND SLIDE TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY JUST PAST THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  95  75  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  72  94  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            92  73  94  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  75  97  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  73  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  73  94  75  95 /  30  30  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  95  76  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  96  76  97 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 031502
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1002 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING WITH TODAYS FORECAST
ON TRACK WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE WISE. ONE SMALL ADJUSTMENT MADE
WAS SLIGHTLY REDUCING THE 30% POP IN LAVACA AND FAYETTE COUNTIES
TO 20% AND SHIFTING THE 30% AREA INTO KARNES COUNTY THROUGH 1PM.
THIS SHIFTING WAS DUE TO ONGOING RADAR TRENDS. HOURLY DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN LOCATIONS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES ARE OUT AND MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW
IN THE UPDATED DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... SOME SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE COAST AND EXTEND
INLAND INTO DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE I-35/37 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SEA-BREEZE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. WATER VAPOR AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO SE OF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS FEATURE MAY BE JUST DISTANT
ENOUGH NOT TO HAVE TO MUCH BEARING ON OUR WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN
DEEPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST. THIS FLOW MAY HELP SOME
SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY PUSH FROM THE EAST TO WEST TOWARDS THE 35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH 20-30%. LOW 800-500MB LAPSE RATES AND A
WARM NOSE NEAR 500MB WILL HAMPER DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. AN UPDATE DURING THE AFTN MAY REMOVE THE CURRENT
THUNDER WORDING AND BE REPLACED WITH GENERAL SHOWERS INSTEAD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST AREAS. STILL THINK THERE IS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MENTION
TEMPO GROUPS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AFTER 16Z-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 04/08Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT OR BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WV IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE SE TX AND LA GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING ONSHORE...BUT THE COVERAGE IS LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...BUT A ROGUE
SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO OUR SE COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOW
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
EVENINGS...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO MOVE IN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND
RETROGRADES UNDER THE RIDGE AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL HELP CAUSE A
0.2-0.3 INCH SURGE IN PWAT VALUES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE THAN OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS THAT WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF FROM SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND A FEW HI-RES MODELS FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RETROGRADING SHEAR AXIS DISSIPATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HOT AND GENERALLY DRY DAYS ASIDE FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 RANGE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE COUNTRY FOR ALL OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90S EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THAT REACH THE CENTURY MARK. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND SLIDE TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY JUST PAST THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  95  75  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  72  94  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            92  73  94  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  75  97  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  73  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  73  94  75  95 /  30  30  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  95  76  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  96  76  97 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 031502
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1002 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING WITH TODAYS FORECAST
ON TRACK WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE WISE. ONE SMALL ADJUSTMENT MADE
WAS SLIGHTLY REDUCING THE 30% POP IN LAVACA AND FAYETTE COUNTIES
TO 20% AND SHIFTING THE 30% AREA INTO KARNES COUNTY THROUGH 1PM.
THIS SHIFTING WAS DUE TO ONGOING RADAR TRENDS. HOURLY DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN LOCATIONS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES ARE OUT AND MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW
IN THE UPDATED DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... SOME SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE COAST AND EXTEND
INLAND INTO DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE I-35/37 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SEA-BREEZE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. WATER VAPOR AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO SE OF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS FEATURE MAY BE JUST DISTANT
ENOUGH NOT TO HAVE TO MUCH BEARING ON OUR WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN
DEEPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST. THIS FLOW MAY HELP SOME
SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY PUSH FROM THE EAST TO WEST TOWARDS THE 35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH 20-30%. LOW 800-500MB LAPSE RATES AND A
WARM NOSE NEAR 500MB WILL HAMPER DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. AN UPDATE DURING THE AFTN MAY REMOVE THE CURRENT
THUNDER WORDING AND BE REPLACED WITH GENERAL SHOWERS INSTEAD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST AREAS. STILL THINK THERE IS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MENTION
TEMPO GROUPS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AFTER 16Z-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 04/08Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT OR BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WV IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE SE TX AND LA GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING ONSHORE...BUT THE COVERAGE IS LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...BUT A ROGUE
SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO OUR SE COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOW
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
EVENINGS...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO MOVE IN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND
RETROGRADES UNDER THE RIDGE AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL HELP CAUSE A
0.2-0.3 INCH SURGE IN PWAT VALUES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE THAN OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS THAT WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF FROM SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND A FEW HI-RES MODELS FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RETROGRADING SHEAR AXIS DISSIPATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HOT AND GENERALLY DRY DAYS ASIDE FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 RANGE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE COUNTRY FOR ALL OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90S EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THAT REACH THE CENTURY MARK. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND SLIDE TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY JUST PAST THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  95  75  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  72  94  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            92  73  94  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  75  97  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  73  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  73  94  75  95 /  30  30  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  95  76  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  96  76  97 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 031502
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1002 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING WITH TODAYS FORECAST
ON TRACK WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE WISE. ONE SMALL ADJUSTMENT MADE
WAS SLIGHTLY REDUCING THE 30% POP IN LAVACA AND FAYETTE COUNTIES
TO 20% AND SHIFTING THE 30% AREA INTO KARNES COUNTY THROUGH 1PM.
THIS SHIFTING WAS DUE TO ONGOING RADAR TRENDS. HOURLY DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN LOCATIONS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES ARE OUT AND MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW
IN THE UPDATED DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... SOME SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE COAST AND EXTEND
INLAND INTO DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE I-35/37 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SEA-BREEZE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. WATER VAPOR AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO SE OF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS FEATURE MAY BE JUST DISTANT
ENOUGH NOT TO HAVE TO MUCH BEARING ON OUR WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN
DEEPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST. THIS FLOW MAY HELP SOME
SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY PUSH FROM THE EAST TO WEST TOWARDS THE 35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH 20-30%. LOW 800-500MB LAPSE RATES AND A
WARM NOSE NEAR 500MB WILL HAMPER DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. AN UPDATE DURING THE AFTN MAY REMOVE THE CURRENT
THUNDER WORDING AND BE REPLACED WITH GENERAL SHOWERS INSTEAD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST AREAS. STILL THINK THERE IS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MENTION
TEMPO GROUPS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AFTER 16Z-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 04/08Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT OR BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WV IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE SE TX AND LA GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING ONSHORE...BUT THE COVERAGE IS LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...BUT A ROGUE
SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO OUR SE COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOW
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
EVENINGS...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO MOVE IN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND
RETROGRADES UNDER THE RIDGE AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL HELP CAUSE A
0.2-0.3 INCH SURGE IN PWAT VALUES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE THAN OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS THAT WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF FROM SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND A FEW HI-RES MODELS FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RETROGRADING SHEAR AXIS DISSIPATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HOT AND GENERALLY DRY DAYS ASIDE FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 RANGE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE COUNTRY FOR ALL OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90S EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THAT REACH THE CENTURY MARK. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND SLIDE TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY JUST PAST THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  95  75  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  72  94  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            92  73  94  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  75  97  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  73  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  73  94  75  95 /  30  30  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  95  76  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  96  76  97 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 031502
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1002 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS MORNING WITH TODAYS FORECAST
ON TRACK WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE WISE. ONE SMALL ADJUSTMENT MADE
WAS SLIGHTLY REDUCING THE 30% POP IN LAVACA AND FAYETTE COUNTIES
TO 20% AND SHIFTING THE 30% AREA INTO KARNES COUNTY THROUGH 1PM.
THIS SHIFTING WAS DUE TO ONGOING RADAR TRENDS. HOURLY DEWPOINTS
WERE ALSO INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN LOCATIONS TO BETTER MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES ARE OUT AND MORE DETAILS CAN BE FOUND BELOW
IN THE UPDATED DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... SOME SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE COAST AND EXTEND
INLAND INTO DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE I-35/37 CORRIDOR WHERE THE SEA-BREEZE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. WATER VAPOR AND MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO SE OF THE TEXAS COAST. THIS FEATURE MAY BE JUST DISTANT
ENOUGH NOT TO HAVE TO MUCH BEARING ON OUR WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN
DEEPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST. THIS FLOW MAY HELP SOME
SEA-BREEZE ACTIVITY PUSH FROM THE EAST TO WEST TOWARDS THE 35
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL
CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH 20-30%. LOW 800-500MB LAPSE RATES AND A
WARM NOSE NEAR 500MB WILL HAMPER DEEPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. AN UPDATE DURING THE AFTN MAY REMOVE THE CURRENT
THUNDER WORDING AND BE REPLACED WITH GENERAL SHOWERS INSTEAD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST AREAS. STILL THINK THERE IS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MENTION
TEMPO GROUPS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AFTER 16Z-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 04/08Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT OR BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WV IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE SE TX AND LA GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING ONSHORE...BUT THE COVERAGE IS LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...BUT A ROGUE
SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO OUR SE COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOW
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
EVENINGS...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO MOVE IN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND
RETROGRADES UNDER THE RIDGE AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL HELP CAUSE A
0.2-0.3 INCH SURGE IN PWAT VALUES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE THAN OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS THAT WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF FROM SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND A FEW HI-RES MODELS FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RETROGRADING SHEAR AXIS DISSIPATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HOT AND GENERALLY DRY DAYS ASIDE FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 RANGE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE COUNTRY FOR ALL OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90S EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THAT REACH THE CENTURY MARK. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND SLIDE TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY JUST PAST THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  95  75  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  72  94  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            92  73  94  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  75  97  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  73  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  73  94  75  95 /  30  30  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  95  76  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  96  76  97 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 031150
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST AREAS. STILL THINK THERE IS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MENTION
TEMPO GROUPS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AFTER 16Z-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 04/08Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT OR BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WV IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE SE TX AND LA GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING ONSHORE...BUT THE COVERAGE IS LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...BUT A ROGUE
SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO OUR SE COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOW
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
EVENINGS...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO MOVE IN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND
RETROGRADES UNDER THE RIDGE AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL HELP CAUSE A
0.2-0.3 INCH SURGE IN PWAT VALUES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE THAN OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS THAT WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF FROM SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND A FEW HI-RES MODELS FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RETROGRADING SHEAR AXIS DISSIPATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HOT AND GENERALLY DRY DAYS ASIDE FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 RANGE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE COUNTRY FOR ALL OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90S EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THAT REACH THE CENTURY MARK. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND SLIDE TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY JUST PAST THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  95  75  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  72  94  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            92  73  94  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  75  97  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  73  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  73  94  75  95 /  30  30  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  95  76  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  96  76  97 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 031150
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST AREAS. STILL THINK THERE IS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MENTION
TEMPO GROUPS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AFTER 16Z-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 04/08Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT OR BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WV IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE SE TX AND LA GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING ONSHORE...BUT THE COVERAGE IS LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...BUT A ROGUE
SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO OUR SE COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOW
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
EVENINGS...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO MOVE IN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND
RETROGRADES UNDER THE RIDGE AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL HELP CAUSE A
0.2-0.3 INCH SURGE IN PWAT VALUES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE THAN OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS THAT WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF FROM SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND A FEW HI-RES MODELS FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RETROGRADING SHEAR AXIS DISSIPATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HOT AND GENERALLY DRY DAYS ASIDE FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 RANGE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE COUNTRY FOR ALL OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90S EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THAT REACH THE CENTURY MARK. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND SLIDE TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY JUST PAST THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  95  75  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  72  94  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            92  73  94  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  75  97  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  73  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  73  94  75  95 /  30  30  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  95  76  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  96  76  97 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 031150
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST AREAS. STILL THINK THERE IS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MENTION
TEMPO GROUPS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AFTER 16Z-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 04/08Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT OR BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WV IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE SE TX AND LA GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING ONSHORE...BUT THE COVERAGE IS LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...BUT A ROGUE
SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO OUR SE COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOW
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
EVENINGS...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO MOVE IN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND
RETROGRADES UNDER THE RIDGE AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL HELP CAUSE A
0.2-0.3 INCH SURGE IN PWAT VALUES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE THAN OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS THAT WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF FROM SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND A FEW HI-RES MODELS FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RETROGRADING SHEAR AXIS DISSIPATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HOT AND GENERALLY DRY DAYS ASIDE FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 RANGE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE COUNTRY FOR ALL OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90S EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THAT REACH THE CENTURY MARK. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND SLIDE TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY JUST PAST THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  95  75  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  72  94  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            92  73  94  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  75  97  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  73  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  73  94  75  95 /  30  30  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  95  76  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  96  76  97 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 031150
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST AREAS. STILL THINK THERE IS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MENTION
TEMPO GROUPS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AFTER 16Z-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 04/08Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT OR BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WV IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE SE TX AND LA GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING ONSHORE...BUT THE COVERAGE IS LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...BUT A ROGUE
SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO OUR SE COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOW
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
EVENINGS...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO MOVE IN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND
RETROGRADES UNDER THE RIDGE AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL HELP CAUSE A
0.2-0.3 INCH SURGE IN PWAT VALUES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE THAN OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS THAT WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF FROM SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND A FEW HI-RES MODELS FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RETROGRADING SHEAR AXIS DISSIPATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HOT AND GENERALLY DRY DAYS ASIDE FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 RANGE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE COUNTRY FOR ALL OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90S EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THAT REACH THE CENTURY MARK. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND SLIDE TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY JUST PAST THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  95  75  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  72  94  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            92  73  94  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  75  97  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  73  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  73  94  75  95 /  30  30  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  95  76  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  96  76  97 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 031150
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST AREAS. STILL THINK THERE IS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MENTION
TEMPO GROUPS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AFTER 16Z-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 04/08Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT OR BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WV IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE SE TX AND LA GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING ONSHORE...BUT THE COVERAGE IS LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...BUT A ROGUE
SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO OUR SE COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOW
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
EVENINGS...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO MOVE IN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND
RETROGRADES UNDER THE RIDGE AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL HELP CAUSE A
0.2-0.3 INCH SURGE IN PWAT VALUES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE THAN OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS THAT WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF FROM SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND A FEW HI-RES MODELS FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RETROGRADING SHEAR AXIS DISSIPATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HOT AND GENERALLY DRY DAYS ASIDE FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 RANGE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE COUNTRY FOR ALL OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90S EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THAT REACH THE CENTURY MARK. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND SLIDE TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY JUST PAST THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  95  75  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  72  94  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            92  73  94  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  75  97  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  73  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  73  94  75  95 /  30  30  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  95  76  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  96  76  97 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH



000
FXUS64 KEWX 031150
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MOST AREAS. STILL THINK THERE IS SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR IFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL MENTION
TEMPO GROUPS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE AFTER 16Z-17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 04/08Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT OR BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WV IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TO THE SE TX AND LA GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING ONSHORE...BUT THE COVERAGE IS LOWER THAN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...BUT A ROGUE
SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO OUR SE COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOW
STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW
EVENINGS...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO MOVE IN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING AND INTENSIFYING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH BREAKS OFF FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND
RETROGRADES UNDER THE RIDGE AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WILL HELP CAUSE A
0.2-0.3 INCH SURGE IN PWAT VALUES AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER CONVERGENCE
WITH THE SEA BREEZE THAN OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS THAT WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF FROM SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND A FEW HI-RES MODELS FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RETROGRADING SHEAR AXIS DISSIPATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO HOT AND GENERALLY DRY DAYS ASIDE FROM ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105 RANGE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE COUNTRY FOR ALL OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90S EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THAT REACH THE CENTURY MARK. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND SLIDE TO THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW A WEAK FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY JUST PAST THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  95  75  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  72  94  73  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            92  73  94  73  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           97  75  97  76  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             95  73  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        92  73  94  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   92  73  94  75  95 /  30  30  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  95  76  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  74  96  76  97 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH




000
FXUS64 KCRP 031146 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
646 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/S DEVELOPING FROM CRP-VCT.
WILL EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING FARTHER INLAND TOWARD ALI. MOSTLY VFR THIS
MORNING HOWEVER THERE IS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING FROM ALI-VCT THAT
SHOULD ONLY LAST THROUGH 13Z-14Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z...PREVAILING MAINLY AT LRD WITH TEMPOS
ELSEWHERE. A TRANSITION TO OVERALL VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING. AS FOR WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING BECOMING E-SE 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MOVING INLAND. THIS
IS ALL DUE TO THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND LINGERING AFFECTS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW. PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE LOW IS
NOTICEABLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO A MORE SUBSIDENT PATTERN
FOR SOUTH TEXAS...BUT AGAIN WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MEASURED
AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES VIA GOES SATELLITE...AND COOLER TEMPS
THROUGH H7...THE INSTABILITY REMAINS TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
FARTHER INLAND WITH ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...WITH ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FROM EAST TO WEST. A SIMILAR SET UP IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAINTAINED NEAR
PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS...TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THIS
WILL ALSO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES TO SLOWLY RISE BUT OVERALL
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUES THE GRADUAL WEAKENING...BUT NOT ELIMINATION...OF RAIN
CHANCES AS THE UPPER RIDGE LOOSELY CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS ASSERTS
ITSELF MORE STRONGLY. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE GULF LOOKS TO REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COASTAL BEND...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FURTHER WEST. QPFS SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  76  93  78  93  /  30  20  30  10  20
VICTORIA          91  73  94  73  93  /  40  20  30  10  20
LAREDO            99  77  99  77 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             95  73  95  75  96  /  40  10  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          89  78  89  79  90  /  40  20  40  20  30
COTULLA           99  75  98  75 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  75  95  77  95  /  30  10  30  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       88  77  89  80  90  /  30  20  40  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 031146 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
646 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/S DEVELOPING FROM CRP-VCT.
WILL EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING FARTHER INLAND TOWARD ALI. MOSTLY VFR THIS
MORNING HOWEVER THERE IS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING FROM ALI-VCT THAT
SHOULD ONLY LAST THROUGH 13Z-14Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z...PREVAILING MAINLY AT LRD WITH TEMPOS
ELSEWHERE. A TRANSITION TO OVERALL VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING. AS FOR WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING BECOMING E-SE 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MOVING INLAND. THIS
IS ALL DUE TO THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND LINGERING AFFECTS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW. PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE LOW IS
NOTICEABLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO A MORE SUBSIDENT PATTERN
FOR SOUTH TEXAS...BUT AGAIN WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MEASURED
AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES VIA GOES SATELLITE...AND COOLER TEMPS
THROUGH H7...THE INSTABILITY REMAINS TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
FARTHER INLAND WITH ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...WITH ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FROM EAST TO WEST. A SIMILAR SET UP IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAINTAINED NEAR
PERSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS...TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THIS
WILL ALSO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES TO SLOWLY RISE BUT OVERALL
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUES THE GRADUAL WEAKENING...BUT NOT ELIMINATION...OF RAIN
CHANCES AS THE UPPER RIDGE LOOSELY CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS ASSERTS
ITSELF MORE STRONGLY. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE GULF LOOKS TO REMAIN
HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COASTAL BEND...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FURTHER WEST. QPFS SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  76  93  78  93  /  30  20  30  10  20
VICTORIA          91  73  94  73  93  /  40  20  30  10  20
LAREDO            99  77  99  77 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             95  73  95  75  96  /  40  10  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          89  78  89  79  90  /  40  20  40  20  30
COTULLA           99  75  98  75 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  75  95  77  95  /  30  10  30  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       88  77  89  80  90  /  30  20  40  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 031146 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
646 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/S DEVELOPING FROM CRP-VCT.
WILL EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING FARTHER INLAND TOWARD ALI. MOSTLY VFR THIS
MORNING HOWEVER THERE IS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING FROM ALI-VCT THAT
SHOULD ONLY LAST THROUGH 13Z-14Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z...PREVAILING MAINLY AT LRD WITH TEMPOS
ELSEWHERE. A TRANSITION TO OVERALL VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING. AS FOR WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING BECOMING E-SE 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MOVING INLAND. THIS
IS ALL DUE TO THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE AND LINGERING AFFECTS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW. PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE LOW IS
NOTICEABLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO A MORE SUBSIDENT PATTERN
FOR SOUTH TEXAS...BUT AGAIN WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE MEASURED
AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES VIA GOES SATELLITE...AND COOLER TEMPS
THROUGH H7...THE INSTABILITY REMAINS TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
FARTHER INLAND WITH ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...WITH ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FROM EAST TO WEST. A SIMILAR SET UP IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MAINTAINED NEAR
PERSISTENT W