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000
FXUS64 KAMA 312353 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
653 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.Aviation...
For the 00Z TAFS, another round of showers and tstms currently
forming over ern plains of New Mexico will move slowly ewd into the
OK and TX Panhandles this evening and tonight. Have continued mention
of thunderstorms at all terminal sites from about 04Z to 08Z with
light rain showers for a few to several hours after. MVFR cigs likely
at all TAF sites later this evening into Wednesday. Some potential
exists for IFR cigs but have decided to leave out of this fcst cycle
due to low confidence in when and where this might occur.

Andrade

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 342 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

Discussion...
Easterly upslope flow expected to continue tonight and Wednesday.
While this will keep moisture supplied, weak flow from the surface to
500 mb is not situated to generate significant shear, warm air
advection, or strong storm base inflow.

Thus, we expect clouds, showers and thunderstorms tonight and
Wednesday, but aforementioned factors have eased concerns for
organized severe thunderstorms.  Slow movement of thunderstorms will
cause some storms to be heavy rain producers.  Lack of consensus
between short-term high-resolution models leads us to not make many
changes to going forecast, apart from tweaking pops in the direction
of new blended guidance, and adjusting border pops toward agreement
with neighbors.

Pops still erode from north and northwest Wednesday night through
Thursday, as mid-level closed low moves downstate, with dry weather
forecast for most periods following.  Have accepted blended pops`
idea of slight chance thunderstorms in western sections Monday night,
by which time next system may tap newly-arrived low-level moisture.

Cockrell

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS64 KEWX 312353
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
653 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.AVIATION...
This TAF period is a tricky one with ongoing high chances for
convection in the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms should
be over in Austin and San Antonio for the rest of the evening and
VFR conditions should prevail. There is a weakening area of
showers in Mexico that may move across the river, but at this time
that does not look likely. So, DRT should remain VFR through the
evening. In Austin and San Antonio, CIGs will drop to MVFR and
then IFR overnight. Have included TSRA after 06Z or 07Z until
mid-morning Wednesday. This is likely too long a period of rain,
but can`t pin down exact timing right now. CIGs should improve
starting late morning reaching VFR by early afternoon. Convection
is possible during the day Wednesday, but have not included any in
TAFs.

AT DRT CIGs will drop to MVFR around 10z and chances for
convection will begin at that time. CIGs will improve to VFR by
around 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
The first of many heavy rain episodes and storm complexes is
currently passing through the CWA. The evolution of this system,
which is a combination of high instability, high PWAT, mesoscale
boundary interactions, and upper level shortwave disturbances will
be indicative of the next few days.

Hi-resolution models have been essentially guessing at how to
handle convective initiation and coverage over the last several
days...and with the exception of a decent HRRR handling of today`s
activity, have not improved. Thus, basically the forecast has
heavily favored the synoptic models in conjunction with
collaboration with neighbors and regional offices.

Looking west of the current convection...IR satellite is showing
convection enhancing across New Mexico and south of the Big Bend
region. Believe this area will be round number 2 of heavy rain
potential overnight tonight. While this round will not have the
benefit of the higher instability from this afternoon, and a
somewhat worked over atmosphere, would expect this activity out
west to evolve into a mature MCS and move east into at least the
western half of the CWA late tonight into tomorrow morning.

There may be a lull in activity between the Wednesday morning
activity but it will likely only be brief as the atmosphere
destabilizes again into the afternoon and yet another shortwave
swings northeast across...again...the Big Bend and Edwards
Plateau.

It is extremely difficult to hone in on specific amounts
in any particular region, but given the antecedent conditions that
have been well advertised, the flash flooding risk will be
significant between now and Wednesday night.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The heavy rain and flooding threats continue Thursday as the main
upper low responsible for all of these shortwave disturbances
enters the state. By Thursday morning, focused upper level lift
associated with the right entrance region of the upper low will be
positioned from Del Rio to Waco. This, coupled with the same
moisture and instability considerations to today and Wednesday
will likely be our most significant heavy rainfall threat.

At the surface, the EURO and GFS both indicate the development of
a surface low over West Texas and pushes southeast along the Rio
Grande River. This will...yet again...provide a surface based
focus to additional heavy rain development Thursday afternoon and
as the main upper low begins to slow in its movement and becomes
more stagnant, could potentially result in training heavy rainfall
as well. This round could persist through Friday morning before
the heavy rain potential begins to finally wane Friday
evening...if the upper low does indeed move east as progged.

As a result...QPF values have further increased, now expected the
potential for 4-7 inches between now and Friday morning but with
the potential for some areas to reach as high as 15 inches before
this event is over with. If this estimate comes to fruition, flash
flooding impacts will be severe. And with so much uncertainty in
the positioning of certain variables, it is not possible to
highlight any one particular area for this threat. So all persons
in South Central Texas should prepare for the prospect of flash
flooding, perhaps extreme flash flooding, and make plans to be
potentially impacted.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  82  69  80  66 /  70  80  80  70  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  82  68  80  66 /  70  80  80  70  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  82  68  80  66 /  70  70  80  70  70
Burnet Muni Airport            67  79  66  78  64 /  70  80  80  70  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  86  69  84  66 /  70  80  80  60  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  80  67  79  64 /  70  80  80  70  60
Hondo Muni Airport             70  84  68  82  65 /  70  70  80  70  60
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  82  68  79  65 /  70  80  80  70  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  82  70  80  68 /  60  70  80  80  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  82  69  81  67 /  70  70  80  70  60
Stinson Muni Airport           72  83  70  82  68 /  70  70  80  70  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for the following
counties: Atascosa...Bandera...Bastrop...Bexar...Blanco...Burnet...
Caldwell...Comal...De Witt...Dimmit...Edwards...Fayette...Frio...
Gillespie...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...Karnes...Kendall...Kerr...
Kinney...Lavaca...Lee...Llano...Maverick...Medina...Real...Travis...
Uvalde...Val Verde...Williamson...Wilson...Zavala.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...05
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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000
FXUS64 KHGX 312348
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
648 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.AVIATION...
A line of thunderstorms were moving along an outflow that was
pushing eastward at around 20 mph and was located between Brenham
and Enda at 540 PM. HGX radar and the area MRMS 0.5 degree
reflectivity show the area of rain and thunderstorms should weaken
but could hold together enough to affect the terminal sites during
the early and mid evening period. Other showers were located off
the coast and approaching toward KLBX and KGLS. The outflow was
associated with an upper level shortwave trough that the high res
and short range models push overhead the area this evening.

Confidence in the forecast is moderate to low after 05Z. The
models showed a good chance for showers and possible thunderstorms
mainly between 10Z and 15Z. Global models show chances for showers
and thunderstorms during Wednesday afternoon.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

UPDATE...
Raised PoPs out west as the convective complex over Central Texas
continues to edge eastward. HRRR/RAP all continue to weaken the
precip as it moves east but reality does not appear to be
matching the short term model consensus. Will continue to monitor
trends and PoPs may need to be raised further. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough moving into Texas
which has allowed for widespread thunderstorm activity from the NW
Hill Country through central Texas. This thunderstorm activity was
producing very heavy rainfall in central Texas as it was located
within an axis of higher moisture running from south Texas through
north central Texas. Some of these storms have produced 2 inches
of rain in an hour. Short range hi-res model guidance shows some
of this activity possibly reaching the Brazos Valley later this
evening before dissipating. The forecast will keep 30-40 percent
chances of thunderstorms in the forecast. The main concerns will
be heavy rainfall but moderate instability may allow for a
strong/severe storm with hail/downburst wind threat.

Day 2-5...Wednesday to Saturday...
This will be the critical time frame for a heavy rainfall threat
over SE Texas. There is overall high confidence that there will be
rainfall during this time frame across the area but low confidence
in where exactly higher rainfall amounts will occur. An upper
level low over the Desert SW and NW Mexico will move across the
southern Rockies into Texas by Thursday into Friday. This upper
level low will be slow moving across the state and likely stall
over the Texas Gulf coast and SE Texas on Saturday. An upper
level trough over the upper Midwest will drop into the Ohio River
Valley on Sunday. This will help shear out the upper low over the
Gulf Coast for the weekend. With this NW flow aloft, believe it or
not, there will actually be a weak front that pushes through into
the Gulf Sunday into Monday. Still some uncertainty as to if this
front actually pushes through but noteworthy nonetheless.

This means that Wednesday through Friday the upper level pattern
will be very conducive for heavy rainfall. With the upper level
low moving towards the area slowly, upper level winds should
decrease and then allow for slow storm motions of under 20 knots.
Precipitable water values will range from 1.8 to 2.0 inches during
this time. There will also be good inflow from the Gulf with 850mb
winds of 20 to 30 knots supporting precipitable water values
around 2 inches for Thursday/Friday. By Sunday precipitable water
values should be decreasing with possible front passage and likely
bring an end to rain chances for early next week. Jet stream flow
will become increasingly diffluent and divergent over much of the
area which would limit any capping and increase large scale ascent
over the region. A frontal boundary pushing into north Texas
tonight may not play much of a role in focusing convection for SE
Texas but could be where surface low pressure forms along in
response to the upper level low moving across Texas. This boundary
may contribute to heavy rainfall over central Texas tomorrow and
Thursday. Rainfall amounts will be tough to nail down but looking
at 2 to 4 inches of rain for the whole area for the next 5 days.
The problem will be identifying areas that may be susceptible to
isolate higher amounts. This is where the mesoscale evolution is
critical but also involves the most non-linearity. Basically
mesoscale processes introduce quite a bit of uncertainty in the
forecast and where the 2 to 4 inches of rainfall become 6 to 8
inches rather quickly especially if higher rain rates can be
achieved. Mesoscale QPF forecasting will be the main problem as
evidenced by recent heavy rainfall/flood events. Flash flood watch
will likely be needed but will wait to see how the atmosphere
evolves the next 24 to 36 hours. Watch may be issued sometime
tomorrow likely for the Thursday/Friday time frame.

Overpeck

MARINE...
No real change with the forecast of generally light/moderate onshore
winds and low seas through much of the week. A series of upper level
disturbances are forecast to move overhead from mid week on into the
end of the week...and interact with a weak cold front that is expec-
ted to stall over inland portions of SE TX. This pattern should help
to produce periods of unsettled weather during this time. Winds/seas
in and near this activity will be elevated. Otherwise there is still
considerable uncertainty with regard to timing of the storms, and if
the frontal boundary is able to move offshore. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      71  83  70  80  68 /  50  70  70  70  70
Houston (IAH)              72  85  71  82  70 /  20  60  50  70  70
Galveston (GLS)            77  83  77  83  75 /  10  30  40  60  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...43
Aviation/Marine...40



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000
FXUS64 KCRP 312333 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
633 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...Update for 00z Aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread convection xpctd to impact KCRP/KVCT/KALI
this evening and dvlp towards KLRD. Have TEMPO +TSRA with
IFR/LIFFR likely this evening under/near convection. Convection
should diminish late this evening and then xpctd to have dry
conditions prevail overnight. Uncertainty as to how much
convection dvlps drng day Wed...but will keep TAFs dry for that
time for now. VFR likely away from convection. Gusty/VRB winds
VCNTY convection with SSErly sfc winds 10 to 15 knots away from
convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  89  76  84  72  /  90  30  50  70  60
Victoria          74  88  72  84  70  /  90  40  50  70  70
Laredo            77  93  73  86  71  /  50  30  70  60  50
Alice             74  90  74  85  71  /  80  30  60  70  60
Rockport          79  88  78  83  74  /  90  30  40  70  60
Cotulla           75  90  72  84  68  /  80  40  70  70  50
Kingsville        76  91  75  85  71  /  70  30  50  70  60
Navy Corpus       79  88  78  83  75  /  80  30  40  60  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight For the following
     zones: Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Duval...Goliad...Jim
     Wells...Kleberg...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Nueces...
     Refugio...San Patricio...Victoria.

GM...None.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KAMA 312042
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
342 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.Discussion...
Easterly upslope flow expected to continue tonight and Wednesday.
While this will keep moisture supplied, weak flow from the surface to
500 mb is not situated to generate significant shear, warm air
advection, or strong storm base inflow.

Thus, we expect clouds, showers and thunderstorms tonight and
Wednesday, but aforementioned factors have eased concerns for
organized severe thunderstorms.  Slow movement of thunderstorms will
cause some storms to be heavy rain producers.  Lack of consensus
between short-term high-resolution models leads us to not make many
changes to going forecast, apart from tweaking pops in the direction
of new blended guidance, and adjusting border pops toward agreement
with neighbors.

Pops still erode from north and northwest Wednesday night through
Thursday, as mid-level closed low moves downstate, with dry weather
forecast for most periods following.  Have accepted blended pops`
idea of slight chance thunderstorms in western sections Monday night,
by which time next system may tap newly-arrived low-level moisture.

Cockrell

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                56  71  55  75  54 /  70  50  50  20   5
Beaver OK                  56  76  55  78  53 /  40  30  20  10   0
Boise City OK              51  69  51  76  51 /  60  40  20   5   5
Borger TX                  60  74  59  77  59 /  60  40  40  20   5
Boys Ranch TX              55  73  54  78  53 /  70  50  50  10   5
Canyon TX                  56  73  55  76  54 /  70  50  50  20   5
Clarendon TX               59  73  58  74  57 /  80  50  50  30  10
Dalhart TX                 55  72  54  77  53 /  60  40  30  10   5
Guymon OK                  56  74  55  77  54 /  50  30  10  10   5
Hereford TX                56  74  55  77  54 /  70  50  50  20   5
Lipscomb TX                59  74  57  76  56 /  40  30  30  20   5
Pampa TX                   59  73  58  75  57 /  60  40  50  20   5
Shamrock TX                60  74  59  76  58 /  60  60  50  40   5
Wellington TX              61  75  60  77  59 /  70  60  50  30  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/03




000
FXUS64 KHGX 311810
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
110 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.AVIATION...
Did not make a lot of changes with the 18Z TAFS...especially for
the near term. While there are questions concerning moisture av-
ailability (see 12Z LCH/CRP soundings), feeling more comfortable
with keeping the mention of VCTS for most sites for the remaind-
er of this aftn. Continued development to our west combined with
daytime heating and the seabreeze are all factors we are keeping
an eye on. For tonight, will also keep with lower CIGS vs. lower
VIS given the slowly deepening/strengthening onshore winds. Will
also keep with a VCTS for tomorrow afternoon. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / 1050 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Morning surface analysis has a cold front pushing through
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle. This front should slide into north
Texas and stall just south of the Red River tomorrow. Higher
moisture axis exists to the west with 12Z CRP sounding showing 2
inches of precipitable water and 12Z LCH sounding showing 1.2
inches. Any thunderstorm activity today should develop west of
Houston within the higher moisture axis. Storms may move into the
region later today. Earlier WRF runs and the Tx Tech WRF were
suggesting this possibility. Overall think the forecast is on
track and will continue to monitor hi-res model runs for any
changes. Main concern will still be for the end of the week with
the heavy rainfall potential. If forecast trends continue we may
need to issue a flash flood watch for the area.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      87  71  84  70  82 /  30  30  60  70  70
Houston (IAH)              87  71  86  71  84 /  20  10  50  50  70
Galveston (GLS)            84  76  84  75  84 /  10  10  30  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...41



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000
FXUS64 KSJT 311611
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1111 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated to issue a Flash Flood Watch for all of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low continues to slowly track to the east across
Arizona. An outflow boundary is sagging southward into the extreme
northern Big Country. Convection continues to blossom across the
Northwest Hill Country and Heartland. All this to say that periods
of showers and storms will continue across most of West Central
Texas through Thursday. With the very wet spring, and with the
fairly widespread 2-4 inch rainfall totals over the last week,
much of the rainfall from the storms will quickly turning into
runoff. And given the precipitable water values, these storms tend
to be efficient rain producers to start with. Not all locations
will see the storms, but the ones that do will produce heavy
rainfall in a short amount of time. With that in mind, issued a
Flash Flood Watch for the entire area through 12Z Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Expect MVFR ceilings along the I-10 corridor and Heartland for a
few hours this morning, then VFR conditions will prevail after
18Z. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
evening across West Central Texas, and keeping VCTS at the
terminals from 18Z to 06Z. Will not go any higher than VCTS due
to low confidence on coverage and timing of storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Rain chances for the next 24 hours remain promising. Models are in
good agreement. The upper low will slowly drift south of the
Arizona border by this afternoon. The persistent southwest flow
aloft will continue to produce minor disturbance, which will move
over West Central Texas. The Storm Prediction Central has all of
our area in a Marginal Risk through 12Z tomorrow morning. So,
continuing chance PoPs for today and likely for tonight looks
reasonable. The main threats for today and tonight are large hail,
damaging winds, and deadly lightning. With precipitable water
values in the 1.5 range likely for tonight, the potential for
heavy rainfall is present; however, exactly where that may develop
is unknown at this time. Thus, will defer to the day shift for a
possible Flash Flood Watch.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged. Good rain
chances continue through late week. Another cold front arrives on
Wednesday, as the upper low moves over the El Paso area. By
Thursday afternoon and evening, this low moves from west to east
across West Central Texas. The ECMWF is more aggressive and moves
the low faster than the GFS; plus, the ECMWF generates more QPF.
Will continue will higher PoPs favoring the ECMWF, with the best
rain chances Wednesday night and Thursday. By Friday afternoon,
the upper trough axis moves east of our counties, and rain chances
diminish, but continue through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  82  64  80  63 /  60  70  70  60
San Angelo  85  65  80  62 /  50  60  60  60
Junction  84  66  79  63 /  50  60  70  70

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-
Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-
Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KEWX 311147
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
647 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/

Rapid refresh models continue to struggle with the unstable
airmass over TX, each run attempting to break out new convection
in the first few hours. Given this poor performance, will revert
back to conventional late spring afternoon/early evening timing
with prob30s reflecting a breaking cap, as the 12z DRT sounding
suggests this could take some time today. The rest of the TAFs
continue to show routine lowering/raising of low cigs from VFR to
IFR and back in the early morning hours and mostly light winds.
Once organized convection develops over part of the area later
today...a more distinct forecast will be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Early this morning, an upper level low centered over southwestern
Arizona is drifting south, a shortwave west of the Big Bend is
moving to the east, and a moist southeasterly lower level flow is
off the Gulf of Mexico. Radars show showers and thunderstorms west
of the Pecos River to the Big Bend and into Mexico and developing
over Rio Grande Plains. Expect these will move across Rio Grande
Plains and Edwards Plateau as other showers and thunderstorms
develop over those same areas as most hi-res models are showing.
The upper level low is forecast to move into northern Sonora state
of Mexico today and across northern Chihuahua state of Mexico on
Wednesday. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop over
southwestern Texas and the Serranias del Burro of Mexico early
this afternoon, organize into an MCS by evening, and then move
across South Central Texas tonight. PWS rise with pockets near 2
inches with locally heavy rains possible. On Wednesday, a cold
front approaches from the north. Expect showers and thunderstorms
to develop along it and again over the Burros into southwestern
Texas around midday, then organize and move into South Central
Texas during the afternoon into evening. Locally heavy rains are
possible on Wednesday. Some models have slightly different timing
and location resulting in slight uncertainty on rainfall amounts.
Shear and instability are sufficient for isolated strong to severe
storms today through Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
The upper level low moves into Texas on Thursday and then drifts
or meanders over mainly Central Texas Friday into Saturday. The
GFS shows it slowly pulling away Sunday into Monday, while the
ECMWF keeps it over our area Sunday into Monday. While yesterday`s
model runs kept the front north of our area, the latest runs bring
it slowly through our area late Thursday into Friday. With these
latest developments, periods of showers and thunderstorms are
expected with the threat for heavy rains continuing to increase,
and possibly continue into late week or even this weekend should
the system slow as the ECMWF indicate. In addition, there is a
potential for the system to attain warm core characteristics which
along with elevated or surface boundaries could lead to copious
mainly nighttime rainfall amounts. For now, rainfall amounts of 3
to 6 inches are expected across most areas with some totals up to
10 inches possible.

HYDROLOGY...
Due to recent heavy rains making soils saturated in many places,
the potential for new or renewed flooding is high over the next
few days. Flash flood watches will likely be needed over the next
few days, possibly as early as tonight. In addition, some rivers
and streams may rise again out of banks or in flood.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              86  70  82  68  80 /  40  50  70  70  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  70  82  68  79 /  40  50  70  70  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     86  70  82  68  80 /  40  50  70  70  70
Burnet Muni Airport            84  67  79  66  78 /  40  60  70  70  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           89  71  85  68  83 /  50  60  70  70  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  68  81  67  78 /  40  50  70  70  70
Hondo Muni Airport             86  70  83  67  81 /  50  60  70  70  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        85  70  81  67  79 /  40  50  70  70  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  71  83  70  81 /  30  30  70  60  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       86  71  82  69  80 /  50  50  70  70  70
Stinson Muni Airport           87  72  83  70  81 /  50  50  70  70  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...04




000
FXUS64 KSJT 311136
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
636 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Expect MVFR ceilings along the I-10 corridor and Heartland for a
few hours this morning, then VFR conditions will prevail after
18Z. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
evening across West Central Texas, and keeping VCTS at the
terminals from 18Z to 06Z. Will not go any higher than VCTS due
to low confidence on coverage and timing of storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Rain chances for the next 24 hours remain promising. Models are in
good agreement. The upper low will slowly drift south of the
Arizona border by this afternoon. The persistent southwest flow
aloft will continue to produce minor disturbance, which will move
over West Central Texas. The Storm Prediction Central has all of
our area in a Marginal Risk through 12Z tomorrow morning. So,
continuing chance PoPs for today and likely for tonight looks
reasonable. The main threats for today and tonight are large hail,
damaging winds, and deadly lightning. With precipitable water
values in the 1.5 range likely for tonight, the potential for
heavy rainfall is present; however, exactly where that may develop
is unknown at this time. Thus, will defer to the day shift for a
possible Flash Flood Watch.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged. Good rain
chances continue through late week. Another cold front arrives on
Wednesday, as the upper low moves over the El Paso area. By
Thursday afternoon and evening, this low moves from west to east
across West Central Texas. The ECMWF is more aggressive and moves
the low faster than the GFS; plus, the ECMWF generates more QPF.
Will continue will higher PoPs favoring the ECMWF, with the best
rain chances Wednesday night and Thursday. By Friday afternoon,
the upper trough axis moves east of our counties, and rain chances
diminish, but continue through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  82  64  80  63 /  50  70  60  60
San Angelo  85  65  80  62 /  50  60  60  60
Junction  84  66  79  63 /  50  60  70  70

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

21



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMAF 311110
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings and visibility are not prevalent this morning, but
could see some affecting KMAF under some mid and high cloud breaks.
Further west, it appears thunderstorms will affect KPEQ at the
beginning of the period.  Not certain these storms will hold
together and affect KINK or KHOB, so will leave out for now. Expect
VFR conditions most of the day at all area terminals, but
thunderstorms should be on the increase this afternoon and tonight.
Have included TSRA at most area terminals after 31/21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

Widespread unsettled weather is expected through Thursday due
to a slowly approaching southern stream system currently centered
in western Arizona.

For today favor the NAM model in depicting precipitation decreasing
this morning due to stabilization behind convection from last
night. However, expect an uptick in thunderstorm development by
this afternoon across the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau due
to intense heating and topography combined with strongly diffluent
flow at 250 millibars and remnant outflow boundaries and mid level
remnant convective vorticity disturbances. Some of these storms
will be strong to severe given 0 to 6 kilometer shear values of 25
to 35 knots and capes in excess of 2000 j/kg.

Thunderstorms will continue tonight and increase in areal coverage
especially across the Permian Basin due to an advancing cold
front and a 25 to 35 knot low level jet developing this evening
ahead of it in continued strongly diffluent flow aloft. Some of
the thunderstorms will be strong to severe tonight and could
produce heavy rainfall. Will mention these potential hazards in
the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

For Wednesday and Thursday the southern stream upper low is forecast
to approach and track over southeast New Mexico and west Texas.
Will continue mainly chance to likely pops for showers and
thunderstorms. Some of the rainfall could be heavy given the slow
movement of the upper low and progged precipitable water values 1
to 2 standard deviations above normal. Will mention the potential
for heavy rainfall and localized flooding in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook. Temperatures will be well below normal both days with
widespread clouds and precipitation beneath the cold core system.

Precipitation chances should diminish and be mainly confined to
extreme eastern sections of the Permian Basin and lower Trans
Pecos Region Thursday night and Friday as the upper low finally
pushes east into central Texas. Temperatures will still be well
below normal especially in the east Friday.

Beyond Friday the upper low is forecast to only drift slowly south
into southern Texas this weekend into early next week. In this
regime most of the precipitation should remain east of the
forecast area. Will continue the mainly dry forecast for now
across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Will mention mainly
diurnal isolated thunderstorms across the Davis and or Guadalupe
Mountains due to unstable upslope flow. Will continue to monitor
the potential for fringe precipitation to back westward into the
eastern Permian Basin these periods due to the proximity of the
system to the south and east. Temperatures are still generally
expected to be below normal under cyclonic flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  65  77  61 /  30  60  60  60
Carlsbad                       92  63  78  60 /  20  20  50  50
Dryden                         88  68  84  65 /  40  40  50  50
Fort Stockton                  91  66  81  61 /  40  40  50  50
Guadalupe Pass                 82  59  73  55 /  20  20  40  40
Hobbs                          88  60  75  57 /  30  40  60  60
Marfa                          84  54  77  53 /  30  30  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           88  65  78  61 /  30  50  60  60
Odessa                         87  65  78  61 /  30  50  60  60
Wink                           91  63  80  61 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/12



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 310836
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
336 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low currently over southwest Arizona will be the
main weather maker for the the rest of the work week and through
the weekend. This system will move east into West Texas Wednesday
night and into Central Texas Thursday. All of the main models
indicate that the upper low will then meander across Central
Texas Thursday night through Saturday before eventually sinking
south. The GFS indicates that the low will sink south and then
southeast off the lower Texas coast by Monday while the ECMWF
keeps the system over South Texas through Monday Night and
opens it up to an upper level trough Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Weak Upper level ridging should start to build in from the west
during the early part of next week.

A shortwave over southwest Texas this morning will move northeast
across North and Central Texas today. Lift associated with this
system along with increasing low level moisture will result in
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from southwest to
northeast today, especially along and west of the I-35 corridor.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
from the Texas Panhandle northeast across Oklahoma. This activity
will move southeast into North Texas this evening and tonight.
Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
the northwestern zones. Locally heavy rain is also expected with
these storms.

As the upper level low sits across Central Texas Wednesday
through Saturday, expect several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. With increasing precipitable water values and
saturated or nearly saturated grounds from recent rainfall, the
potential for flash flooding will increase. A Flash Flood Watch
will likely be needed for parts, if not all, of North and Central
Texas for the Wednesday through Friday period. The best rain
chances should start to shift southward Saturday night and
Sunday but some low chances will continue across Central Texas
into Monday.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
VFR at all TAF sites through Tuesday evening with the exception of
some brief MVFR ceilings in Waco around sunrise. Since the low
level jet will be weak overnight, we don`t anticipate the low
clouds will reach the metro terminals. Tuesday will see scattered
to broken CU between 4000 and 6000 ft.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across North and
Central Texas mainly Tuesday afternoon as moisture and instability
increase ahead of an approaching upper level storm system. Will
carry VCTS in the afternoon and evening at all sites since
coverage will be scattered. The better storm chances will arrive
overnight Tuesday/Wednesday morning when a complex of storms
originating from West Texas moves across the region.

A southeast to south wind will continue generally below 12 knots.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    85  68  81  67  79 /  50  60  70  60  70
Waco                85  68  81  66  79 /  50  50  70  60  70
Paris               85  68  80  66  79 /  40  50  70  60  70
Denton              84  67  79  65  78 /  50  60  70  60  70
McKinney            85  67  79  66  79 /  40  60  70  60  70
Dallas              86  69  82  67  80 /  50  60  70  60  70
Terrell             86  68  81  67  79 /  40  50  70  60  70
Corsicana           86  70  81  68  80 /  40  40  60  60  70
Temple              84  68  80  67  78 /  50  50  70  70  70
Mineral Wells       83  66  79  65  77 /  50  60  70  60  60

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

30/58




000
FXUS64 KEWX 310548
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1248 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/

Mesoscale models show fair agreement on the next round of rain
forming around DRT by 09Z and tracking east toward I-35 during the
late morning hours. With radar loops showing disorganized clusters
of convection over Mexico and Far W TX, will show some VCTS and
update in the next few hours to add tempo or prevailing groups once
a distinct convective trend takes shape. The atmosphere remains
quite unstable and is capable of developing storm clusters at all
hours of the TAF periods, making it difficult to pinpoint storm
timing without some indication of a surface boundary. Aside from
these uncertainties, the area TAFs continue to dip into IFR skies
generally between 09Z and 16Z with a few hours of MVFR skies on
each side. Wind should remain mostly below 12 knots except near
thunderstorms/outflows.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

UPDATE...
Made few minor changes to the weather grids to reduce PoPs over
parts of the Rio Grande based on area radar trends and HiRes
models solutions. Still expecting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the Big Bend and northeast Mexico to push
eastward late tonight continuing overnight. New rainfall amounts
out west could range from few hundredths to one quarter inch with
up to one half inch over isolated spots. Widespread flash
flooding conditions are not expected for this period, however,
some local roads may end up with pounding of waters.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are prevailing at the TAF sites this evening. A
return to MVFR and IFR is expected overnight. While there is a
chance of storms at all sites at some point this valid period,
will try to only mention storms in the TAFs when the probability
is high enough to warrant the inclusion of activity. Think chances
will warrant a mention of VCTS for Del Rio this evening for
possible activity moving in from the west. VFR is expected to
return tomorrow afternoon. Southeasterly flow is expected to
continue through tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
With the passage of the morning MCS, the CWA has enjoyed a period
of dryness that may be few and far between beyond today. There
currently is elevated convection ongoing out in West Texas which
is being largely being helped by a subtle shortwave at 500 mb.
While this activity could make it east into our CWA, the current
atmosphere still has over 100 J/KG of CIN and dewpoints in the low
60s, which is about 10 degrees less than in previous days. While
some destabilization is ongoing and capping will weaken,
confidence in significant severe or heavy rain activity reaching
the CWA is quite low. Having said that, some showers and storms
will probably impact the Rio Grande Plains and plateau areas and
result in measurable rain and latest HRRR does indeed show a sub-
severe complex approaching from the west. As a result...lowered
QPF quite a bit but kept the 40-50 percent PoP chances from the
previous forecast.

For Tuesday, while hi-resolution models are quite dry for most of
the day, synoptic models produce QPF by mid to late afternoon and
increase coverage into the overnight hours. Expect isolated to
scattered shower activity as instability increases and as low
level jet increases into the overnight hours, coverage should
increase across much of the CWA.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Another possible MCS may occur overnight Tuesday and exit in the
morning hours allowing for a brief lull in rainfall until around
noon when the dynamics of the upper low begin to influence the
region. There has been the prospect of a cold front passage the
last few days through the CWA but now it seems this front will
stall well north of the area, which may be good news as a lack of
focused lifting prohibits the prospect of organized convection.
However...PWATs 1.8-2 inches are expected and with good upper
level support...think that at least isolated flash flood potential
will exist for the whole CWA, especially in locations already hit
with multiple inches of rain over the last 4-5 days.

The upper level pattern continues to slow down in its progression
through the state in the late week period. As a result, multiple
periods of heavy rainfall will be possible with the high PWATs and
broad, deep upper influences. GFS/EURO still disagree on the
evolution of the low as it exits to the east...or south even if
the EURO is to be believed.

So in the end, agree with the previous forecast that Flash Flood
Watches will be needed as early as Tuesday night which may need to
be an extended watch due to the periods of possible heavy rainfall
for the next 48 hours...or through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  82  68  81  67 /  40  70  60  70  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  82  68  80  67 /  40  70  70  70  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  83  68  81  67 /  40  70  70  70  70
Burnet Muni Airport            68  80  66  78  65 /  60  70  60  70  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  85  67  82  66 /  60  60  70  60  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  81  67  79  66 /  40  70  60  70  60
Hondo Muni Airport             70  83  68  81  66 /  50  70  70  70  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  82  67  80  67 /  40  70  70  70  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  83  70  81  68 /  30  70  60  70  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  83  68  80  67 /  40  70  70  70  60
Stinson Muni Airport           72  84  69  81  68 /  40  70  70  70  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...04



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLUB 310444
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1144 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms were weakening around KLBB and KPVW late this
evening, and after making a run towards KCDS have weakened south
of there as well. Leaving a tempo thunder mention at KLBB through
07z near tonights mesoscale convective system, but not other
locations. Short term RAP has been trending a little more
extensive with an MVFR cloud layer near KLBB and KPVW later
tonight so have added that roughly 09z to 17z. Latest solutions
agree that an outflow infused cold front will press southward with
good enough thunder chances to add a 30 percent probability for
tomorrow evening for each location. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A very pleasant Memorial Day afternoon was in progress across the
forecast area as the atmosphere continued to slowly recover from
Sunday night`s convective activity. The remnants of that storm
complex, believe it or not, cleared the Texas coast around noon and
is now over the western Gulf of Mexico as of 19Z. Surface wind has
come back around to the south across West Texas, dewpoints have
climbed back into the 60s save the western South Plains and
temperatures were in the 70s and lower 80s. This was making for
some well-capped mixed layer CAPE around 1000 j/kg and climbing.

Next disturbance in modest mid-level SW flow aloft was moving
northeast across New Mexico this afternoon and regional 88D radars
continue to show an increase in convective coverage coincident with
this feature. There is decent agreement among short range/high
resolution models of scattered storms advecting/developing across
the forecast area very late this afternoon and evening as the
disturbance approaches. Low end CAPE/effective shear should prevent
any widespread severe convective episode, but isolated, low-end
severe storms will certainly be possible, mainly before sunset.

Similar pattern will exist on Tuesday with the, possibly important,
wrinkle of a weak surface cool front dropping through the Texas
Panhandle. Otherwise, not much for a forecaster to hang his hat
on as far as favored locations for additional precipitation.
Again, decent agreement from model QPF of a complex or clusters of
storms developing ahead/along frontal boundary with possible
assistance from any additional disturbances in SW flow aloft. This
certainly seems plausible and will shotgun high chance to likely
POPs from west to east in the grids. JW

LONG TERM...
The upper low currently centered over southwest Arizona is progged
to translate only slowly eastward, emerging over Far West Texas
early Thursday and progressing to the center part of the state by
Friday. In addition, a storm system moving across the northern tier
of the nation and southern Canada will send a cold front southward
into South Plains region by late Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
This pattern will set the stage for a prolonged stretch of unsettled
weather through much of the work week. There is a good signal that
one or two MCS(s) will form in the region tomorrow evening and
track southeastward. Marginal shear and modest instability could
support a few strong/severe storms, but attention would likely
evolve to a localized heavy rain threat as the convection grows
upscale. The exact location of any potential MCS track remains
somewhat uncertain, but most of the CWA will have a good shot of
seeing at least some precipitation and PoPs in the 50-70 percent
range were maintained. The front in the area along with the
approaching upper level trough will keep good storm chances in the
forecast Wednesday into Thursday, though the better chances
should gradually shift further to the southeast with time in tow
with the upper trough/low. The best rain chances should shift
downstate by late week, though some NWP solutions do hold the
upper level weakness close enough to warrant maintaining low
thunder chances across portions of the Rolling Plains late Friday
into this weekend.

In the wake of this week`s storm system some form of northerly flow
aloft will develop over West Texas and be maintain downstream of a
western ridge through the conclusion of the extended forecast. There
are even signals in the guidance that northwesterly flow convection
could threaten the far northwestern/western zones by the end of the
weekend into early next week. Given this we have introduced slim
storm chances across our far northwestern zones Sunday and
Monday.

Highs through the extended will be on the low side of average, with
the coolest days expected behind the FROPA Wednesday and Thursday
when most locations may not make it out of the 70s. In contrast,
decent moisture and cloud cover through much of the week should keep
overnight lows near to slightly above average.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/05




000
FXUS64 KHGX 310303
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1003 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Evening satellite imagery shows anvil cirrus from convection over
northern Mexico drifting eastward across Southeast Texas this
evening. Have increased cloud cover and bumped up overnight low
temperatures a degree or two (generally low to mid 70s) in
response. Expect a generally dry night with weak mid-level
subsidence over the area in the wake of a shortwave trough just
west of the lower Mississippi River per water vapor imagery. No
other changes made to the ongoing forecast.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through 06z. Another night of
cirrus clouds is expected as convection over N Mexico moves into
South Texas. The high clouds will once again limit the fog threat
overnight. A brief window of MVFR ceilings will be possible early
Tuesday morning before clouds begin to scatter out. PW values
reach 1.85 inches at KCLL tomorrow aftn so added a VCSH for both
KCLL and KUTS as forecast soundings show no capping and a
convective temp in the mid 80s. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Morning convection has left lingering cloud cover over much of SE
Texas this afternoon. This has limited day time heating and likely
keep Houston IAH from reaching 90F for a maximum temperature
again. Only one more day for Houston IAH to reach 90F in May 2016
and it`s not looking likely. The thunderstorm activity that did
move through Matagorda Bay indicates a weaker cap over the region
and perhaps less subsidence. Based on upper air analysis 500mb
heights have dropped below 588dm mainly due to a weak short wave
over the Ozarks on water vapor satellite imagery. Water vapor
imagery shows the upper level low over the Desert SW which will
begin to slowly move east through the week.

Short Term...Tuesday/Wednesday
Upper level low over the Desert SW will slowly move east across
the S Rockies through Wednesday night. This will allow for height
falls downstream of the trough over much of Texas and allow for
the upper level jet to increase. This will essentially increase
large scale lift over much of Texas which will weaken capping and
replace any subsidence. Overall think there will be more of a
severe weather threat given increase jet stream winds supporting
decent deep layer shear of 30 kts. CAPE should be around 2000-3000
J/kg over a large area. The concern will be for possibly a few
strong/severe storms over western parts of SE Texas but more so
for storms to develop over C Texas and move into the region. Low
level shear does not look strong so mainly have
pulse/multicellular convection that could organize into weak bow
segments in a squall line. There will be a frontal boundary that
slides into Texas late Wednesday into Thursday but the primary
lift will be from diffluence aloft and gentle up-slope through the
Hill Country into W Texas. Storm motions will be from the west so
expect the possibility for storms to move into the area from C
Texas. Moisture will be increasing over the area so 1.7-2.0 inches
of precipitable water can be expected well through the week.
Overall threats from storms will be hail and downburst winds with
heavy rainfall. Highest rainfall amounts will be expected
Wednesday of these two days.

Days 4-6...Thursday/Friday/Saturday
This will be the main time frame of concern for heavy rainfall and
the potential for more flash flooding and prolonged river
flooding. We know people are growing weary of hearing this and
tired of the flooding, but the reality is of a growing potential
for more rainfall. Upper level low reaches west Texas on Thursday
which support diffluence and increasing large scale ascent over
much of Texas. Widespread thunderstorm activity will be expected.
Given precipitable water values around 1.80-2.0 inches through
this time period and a slow moving upper level trough, heavy
rainfall will be the main threat with less of a threat for hail or
downburst winds. Deep layer shear weakens and storm motions also
become less than 20 knots over much of the area. This means storms
may be very efficient in producing heavy rainfall. For this time
frame there may be 2-3 inches of rainfall area wide but still hard
to pinpoint locations. Rainfall amounts will be dependent on where
any frontal boundaries move into the area and stall. Mesoscale
processes with outflow boundary collisions and cell mergers will
also support localized higher amounts above 4 inches. Depending
upon runoff and any additional rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday, a
flash flood watch may be needed for the end of the week. The upper
level low is expected to possibly stall over the area through
early next week. This will keep thunderstorm chances in the
forecast. The low should weaken but even day time heating may be
enough to produce thunderstorms with heavy rainfall Sunday into
Monday. A stronger frontal boundary may push into SE Texas Sunday
into Monday. I hesitate to call this a cold front but that is what
it is technically. Possible that drier air could filter into the
region Monday which might end rain chances. There is low
confidence in any front getting this far south but the upper level
pattern supports it with a trough over the Great Lakes.

Overpeck

MARINE...
No issues with the coastal waters forecast these next few days as
high pressure remains in charge. The generally light/moderate on-
shore winds to prevail but we should begin to see speeds increase
some Tue night into Wed. This will be in response to the slow
approach of a strong upper level storm system from the
west...which will help to tighten the gradient over the area. At
this time the worst case for the offshore waters will be
Caution/SCEC flags for Wed/Thur. An unsettled wx pattern is
progged for the remainder of the week as a weak cold front stalls
aoa SE TX and interacts with the slow moving upper low. Not too
optimistic with FROPA into the Gulf until late into next weekend
(or if at all). In the meantime will keep with a light/moderate
onshore flow in the extended. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      71  85  71  82  69 /  20  30  30  60  70
Houston (IAH)              71  87  71  86  70 /  20  20  10  50  50
Galveston (GLS)            77  83  77  84  76 /  10  10  10  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...14




000
FXUS64 KFWD 310046
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
746 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Minimal aviation weather concerns are expected across North and
Central Texas this evening and overnight with shortwave ridging
aloft and weak flow at the surface. It appears that most of the
thunderstorms this evening and overnight will be on either side of
the upper ridge with the best storm chances across West Texas.
Better storm chances will arrive Tuesday afternoon and evening
when large scale upward forcing increases in response to an upper
low approaching from the southwest. The best storm chances will be
Tuesday evening/overnight when the upper low reaches far West
Texas. These storms will likely begin to impact all North and
Central Texas Terminals just beyond this TAF cycle.

Scattered clouds between 4000 and 6000 ft are expected tonight
through Tuesday afternoon. A 20 to 25 knot low level jet may bring
some brief MVFR ceilings toward sunrise with the best chances
across Central Texas. Any low ceilings that do manage to form
will quickly mix out by mid morning.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
The airmass over the region is pretty worked over from the
overnight and morning convective episode, but afternoon sunshine
has returned and some pockets of enhanced instability have
developed primarily across the far western zones and also eastern
zones. Some isolated slow moving diurnal convection with locally
heavy rainfall will be possible in these areas through early
evening, but would expect this activity to diminish or dissipate
by mid evening with the loss of heating. Otherwise, the synoptic
environment over the region tonight is suggesting that a repeat
round of West Texas storms moving into the region is unlikely.
This is because the mid-upper level westerly winds have weakened
which means cell motions will be much slower, but also the low-mid
level flow has become more westerly which limits the deep layer
shear and ability for convective complexes to organize and track
easterly as well. Most of North and Central Texas will experience
a tranquil evening with temperatures not unpleasant for the time
of the year. However increasing low clouds and low level moisture
by morning will keep lows from falling beyond the upper 60s.

The next upper level shortwave trough will arrive into the Texas
Panhandle and West Texas by midday Tuesday and southerly flow over
our region will once again organize. This will bring rich Gulf
moisture northward and again set the stage for a convectively
active evening and overnight period. While a few showers and
storms may pop up right over the area during the day Tuesday in
the moist and unstable airmass, the main show will develop
northwest of the CWA in the afternoon hours and head southeast
into North Texas during the evening and overnight hours. Instability
will be plentiful and deep layer shear is sufficient for organized
convective modes -- primarily multicell complexes but brief
supercellular structures during the evening hours will be possible
over the NW zones. So a low severe weather threat will occur with
this round of convection, but perhaps more of a concern is the
locally heavy rainfall potential. The topsoils are saturated from
the recent rounds of rain (especially over most of the NW CWA) and
any additional rainfall will be more prone to run off. Average QPF
of 1 to 2 inches appears likely for the northwestern zones and we
may consider a flash flood watch for this area in subsequent
forecast packages. The convection Tuesday night will likely
continue to track southeastward across the region into Wednesday
morning so will continue to show likely PoPs. We may see a
respite in the activity by the afternoon hours, but generally
cloudy conditions will prevail and help to keep high temps around
80 degrees for the first day of June.

The weather pattern will get interesting by Wednesday night as a
cut off upper level low moves into the state from the west. This
low will be vertically stacked, meaning that there will be a low
pressure/height center from the surface to the tropopause in the
same general area. This means the region will be in a persistent
area of upper level lift coincident with a continuous
east/southeast low level feed which will keep precipitable water
values up around 1.9 inches. Meanwhile the temperature gradients
associated with the upper low will weaken which is a sign of a
system transitioning from cold-core to warm-core. These warm-core
lows can sometimes set up a convective feedback loop where
convective episodes serve to enhance the upper level dynamics for
lift which results in more convection...and then more lift...and
so on. This can result in localized regions of very heavy rainfall
particularly during the late night and morning hours. So on the
synoptic scale there is the concern that all of the ingredients
are in place for some excessive rainfall totals somewhere across
Texas for the latter half of the week. Obviously we can`t say
exactly where these areas of heavy rain will set up at this time.
We can say that the due to the lack of baroclinic energy the
severe weather threat will be almost zero, since instability will
be limited and winds will also be fairly light through the
tropospheric column.

For the particulars of the forecast, have indicated good chances
of rain both day and night Wednesday night through Saturday
morning. The cyclone drops southeast into the Gulf during the day
Saturday and allows northerly winds to bring in some drier air
behind a cold front into our region which should gradually end
the rain chances. High temperatures will be below normal -- with
forecast values in the upper 70s to low 80s to start out the first
few days of June.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  87  66  81  67 /  10  30  70  60  50
Waco                68  87  68  80  66 /  10  30  50  60  60
Paris               68  86  68  79  66 /  20  20  60  70  50
Denton              68  86  66  79  65 /  10  40  70  60  50
McKinney            68  86  67  80  66 /  10  30  70  60  50
Dallas              71  87  67  81  67 /  10  30  70  60  50
Terrell             69  87  68  81  66 /  10  30  60  60  50
Corsicana           69  87  68  81  67 /  10  30  50  60  60
Temple              68  85  68  80  67 /  10  30  50  70  60
Mineral Wells       68  84  65  79  65 /  20  40  70  60  50

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

79/82




000
FXUS64 KMAF 302350
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
650 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Tstms just e of the MAF along a boundary seem to be having a hard
time developing farther w, but close enuf for a short TSRA TEMPO
group. Otherwise have left VFR wx in all other sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar and satellite is showing convection already
developing in the higher elevations from the Davis Mountains north
to the Guadalupe Mountains. This can be attributed to less morning
cloud cover areawide allowing for more insolation and a greater
destabilization of the boundary layer than was seen yesterday.
Models are showing the cap eroding by 21Z with CAPE of 2500-3500
J/KG being enough to support severe convection though deep layer
shear is a bit marginal at 30-35kts. Expect to see some severe
thunderstorms today with large hail and strong winds the primary
threats with hail size being limited due to the shear.

Tuesday looks to be a repeat of today except the dryline will make
a push into southeast New Mexico focusing convection farther east
in the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. Wednesday see rain
chances increase as an upper low approaching from the west
coincides with the arrival of a cold front. Cool air behind the
front will stabilize the boundary layer leaving the main threat
for severe weather west of the Pecos River, especially the Davis
Mountains and Big Bend. A stable layer will not prevent precip
in the Permian Basin though it will mean showers will be less
intense and QPF will be lighter. Cold air advection and showers
will also keep highs in the 70s most areas Wednesday and Thursday
providing a very pleasant start to June. The upper low will move
east of the area late Thursday bringing an end to the rain, but
thankfully the upstream ridge axis will hold over the western
states for a few days leaving us in a cool northerly flow pattern.
This will allow temperatures to warm some while staying below
climatology for the end of the week.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level trough over the Desert SW will slowly inch east over
the next few days. Dry air across northern Mexico will move across
the Guadalupe Mountains Tuesday afternoon with rh`s falling to
around 10 percent. Winds will also increase to near 25 mph,
especially across the peak elevations. Near critical fire weather
conditions are possible in this area so will continue the Fire
Weather Watch. Moisture increases by midweek and should keep rh`s
fairly high through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     65  86  63  77 /  40  30  50  50
Carlsbad                       64  91  62  78 /  20  10  20  50
Dryden                         68  88  68  84 /  40  30  30  40
Fort Stockton                  66  89  66  81 /  40  30  30  50
Guadalupe Pass                 61  81  59  73 /  30  10  20  40
Hobbs                          63  86  60  75 /  30  20  30  50
Marfa                          58  83  57  77 /  40  20  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           65  88  64  78 /  40  30  40  50
Odessa                         65  88  64  78 /  40  30  40  50
Wink                           67  92  66  80 /  40  20  20  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KEWX 302337
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
637 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are prevailing at the TAF sites this evening. A
return to MVFR and IFR is expected overnight. While there is a
chance of storms at all sites at some point this valid period,
will try to only mention storms in the TAFs when the probability
is high enough to warrant the inclusion of activity. Think chances
will warrant a mention of VCTS for Del Rio this evening for
possible activity moving in from the west. VFR is expected to
return tomorrow afternoon. Southeasterly flow is expected to
continue through tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
With the passage of the morning MCS, the CWA has enjoyed a period
of dryness that may be few and far between beyond today. There
currently is elevated convection ongoing out in West Texas which
is being largely being helped by a subtle shortwave at 500 mb.
While this activity could make it east into our CWA, the current
atmosphere still has over 100 J/KG of CIN and dewpoints in the low
60s, which is about 10 degrees less than in previous days. While
some destabilization is ongoing and capping will weaken,
confidence in significant severe or heavy rain activity reaching
the CWA is quite low. Having said that, some showers and storms
will probably impact the Rio Grande Plains and plateau areas and
result in measurable rain and latest HRRR does indeed show a sub-
severe complex approaching from the west. As a result...lowered
QPF quite a bit but kept the 40-50 percent PoP chances from the
previous forecast.

For Tuesday, while hi-resolution models are quite dry for most of
the day, synoptic models produce QPF by mid to late afternoon and
increase coverage into the overnight hours. Expect isolated to
scattered shower activity as instability increases and as low
level jet increases into the overnight hours, coverage should
increase across much of the CWA.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Another possible MCS may occur overnight Tuesday and exit in the
morning hours allowing for a brief lull in rainfall until around
noon when the dynamics of the upper low begin to influence the
region. There has been the prospect of a cold front passage the
last few days through the CWA but now it seems this front will
stall well north of the area, which may be good news as a lack of
focused lifting prohibits the prospect of organized convection.
However...PWATs 1.8-2 inches are expected and with good upper
level support...think that at least isolated flash flood potential
will exist for the whole CWA, especially in locations already hit
with multiple inches of rain over the last 4-5 days.

The upper level pattern continues to slow down in its progression
through the state in the late week period. As a result, multiple
periods of heavy rainfall will be possible with the high PWATs and
broad, deep upper influences. GFS/EURO still disagree on the
evolution of the low as it exits to the east...or south even if
the EURO is to be believed.

So in the end, agree with the previous forecast that Flash Flood
Watches will be needed as early as Tuesday night which may need to
be an extended watch due to the periods of possible heavy rainfall
for the next 48 hours...or through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  85  70  82  68 /  30  30  40  70  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  85  69  82  68 /  30  30  40  70  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  85  70  83  68 /  30  30  40  70  70
Burnet Muni Airport            68  80  68  80  66 /  30  30  60  70  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  88  72  85  67 /  50  40  60  60  70
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  81  69  81  67 /  30  30  40  70  60
Hondo Muni Airport             71  86  70  83  68 /  30  40  50  70  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  84  69  82  67 /  30  30  40  70  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  85  71  83  70 /  20  30  30  70  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  85  71  83  68 /  30  40  40  70  70
Stinson Muni Airport           72  85  72  84  69 /  30  40  40  70  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...17
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway




000
FXUS64 KHGX 302325
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through 06z. Another night of
cirrus clouds is expected as convection over N Mexico moves into
South Texas. The high clouds will once again limit the fog threat
overnight. A brief window of MVFR ceilings will be possible early
Tuesday morning before clouds begin to scatter out. PW values
reach 1.85 inches at KCLL tomorrow aftn so added a VCSH for both
KCLL and KUTS as forecast soundings show no capping and a
convective temp in the mid 80s. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Morning convection has left lingering cloud cover over much of SE
Texas this afternoon. This has limited day time heating and likely
keep Houston IAH from reaching 90F for a maximum temperature
again. Only one more day for Houston IAH to reach 90F in May 2016
and it`s not looking likely. The thunderstorm activity that did
move through Matagorda Bay indicates a weaker cap over the region
and perhaps less subsidence. Based on upper air analysis 500mb
heights have dropped below 588dm mainly due to a weak short wave
over the Ozarks on water vapor satellite imagery. Water vapor
imagery shows the upper level low over the Desert SW which will
begin to slowly move east through the week.

Short Term...Tuesday/Wednesday
Upper level low over the Desert SW will slowly move east across
the S Rockies through Wednesday night. This will allow for height
falls downstream of the trough over much of Texas and allow for
the upper level jet to increase. This will essentially increase
large scale lift over much of Texas which will weaken capping and
replace any subsidence. Overall think there will be more of a
severe weather threat given increase jet stream winds supporting
decent deep layer shear of 30 kts. CAPE should be around 2000-3000
J/kg over a large area. The concern will be for possibly a few
strong/severe storms over western parts of SE Texas but more so
for storms to develop over C Texas and move into the region. Low
level shear does not look strong so mainly have
pulse/multicellular convection that could organize into weak bow
segments in a squall line. There will be a frontal boundary that
slides into Texas late Wednesday into Thursday but the primary
lift will be from diffluence aloft and gentle up-slope through the
Hill Country into W Texas. Storm motions will be from the west so
expect the possibility for storms to move into the area from C
Texas. Moisture will be increasing over the area so 1.7-2.0 inches
of precipitable water can be expected well through the week.
Overall threats from storms will be hail and downburst winds with
heavy rainfall. Highest rainfall amounts will be expected
Wednesday of these two days.

Days 4-6...Thursday/Friday/Saturday
This will be the main time frame of concern for heavy rainfall and
the potential for more flash flooding and prolonged river
flooding. We know people are growing weary of hearing this and
tired of the flooding, but the reality is of a growing potential
for more rainfall. Upper level low reaches west Texas on Thursday
which support diffluence and increasing large scale ascent over
much of Texas. Widespread thunderstorm activity will be expected.
Given precipitable water values around 1.80-2.0 inches through
this time period and a slow moving upper level trough, heavy
rainfall will be the main threat with less of a threat for hail or
downburst winds. Deep layer shear weakens and storm motions also
become less than 20 knots over much of the area. This means storms
may be very efficient in producing heavy rainfall. For this time
frame there may be 2-3 inches of rainfall area wide but still hard
to pinpoint locations. Rainfall amounts will be dependent on where
any frontal boundaries move into the area and stall. Mesoscale
processes with outflow boundary collisions and cell mergers will
also support localized higher amounts above 4 inches. Depending
upon runoff and any additional rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday, a
flash flood watch may be needed for the end of the week. The upper
level low is expected to possibly stall over the area through
early next week. This will keep thunderstorm chances in the
forecast. The low should weaken but even day time heating may be
enough to produce thunderstorms with heavy rainfall Sunday into
Monday. A stronger frontal boundary may push into SE Texas Sunday
into Monday. I hesitate to call this a cold front but that is what
it is technically. Possible that drier air could filter into the
region Monday which might end rain chances. There is low
confidence in any front getting this far south but the upper level
pattern supports it with a trough over the Great Lakes.

Overpeck

MARINE...
No issues with the coastal waters forecast these next few days as
high pressure remains in charge. The generally light/moderate on-
shore winds to prevail but we should begin to see speeds increase
some Tue night into Wed. This will be in response to the slow
approach of a strong upper level storm system from the
west...which will help to tighten the gradient over the area. At
this time the worst case for the offshore waters will be
Caution/SCEC flags for Wed/Thur. An unsettled wx pattern is
progged for the remainder of the week as a weak cold front stalls
aoa SE TX and interacts with the slow moving upper low. Not too
optimistic with FROPA into the Gulf until late into next weekend
(or if at all). In the meantime will keep with a light/moderate
onshore flow in the extended. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      70  85  71  82  69 /  20  30  30  60  70
Houston (IAH)              70  87  71  86  70 /  20  20  10  50  50
Galveston (GLS)            76  83  77  84  76 /  10  10  10  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLUB 301754
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1254 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...

IFR to MVFR cigs have scattered at KLBB and KCDS and will soon at
KPVW. May see a repeat performance at all TAF locations Tuesday
morning but confidence not high enough to include this cycle.
Atmosphere still recovering from last night`s MCS but disturbance
approaching the region from New Mexico will result in scattered
thunderstorm advection/development very late this afternoon and
evening. Some of these storms could affect KLBB and KPVW in the
01Z to 04Z time frame or so. Lower probabilities of thunder will
exist for KCDS, but greater than zero nonetheless. Outside of any
possible thunder issues this evening and low cigs Tuesday morning,
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF locations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

AVIATION...
Two areas of low ceilings are encroaching on all terminals at 630
AM - the first is an IFR layer off the Caprock which should envelop
CDS shortly while the second is MVFR about 30W of LBB and PVW and
expanding quickly eastward.

LBB and PVW could fall to IFR for a short while this morning, but
satellite trends suggest MVFR should prevail here. Low ceilings
should erode and restore VFR by midday ahead of TS development
in eastern NM. Will keep TS out of TAFs for now as TS coverage
and duration are just too uncertain this many hours out.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Large MCS with cloud tops as cold as -76C continued to roll south
into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau at 3 AM. A large
mesohigh axis extended all the way from the wake of this MCS
northwest to the southwest TX Panhandle with rather low dewpoints
in the lower 50s over much of our CWA. Combined with some stratus
at times, these features are significant enough to warrant a
significant reduction in POPs today as sufficient moisture
recovery and destabilization will face many headwinds. 06Z NAM has
improved markedly over the 00Z iteration with the handling of the
MCS, so if this is correct then there would be a protracted lull
in precip today - much to the joy of outdoor parade attendees. The
one exception to this should occur in our W-SW zones later this
afternoon and evening as upslope storms from NM make strides
northeastward. This activity should be aided by stronger
southwesterlies aloft preceding an upper low in southern CA.
Although marginally severe storms could still emerge within a
narrow corridor of instability along the TX-NM border, feel SPC`s
assessment is solid so we have nixed the earlier severe mention
from the grids.

Ability for surface based storms in our western zones to transition
to elevated modes tonight is not clear at this time. Although low
level moisture improvements will be underway overnight courtesy of a
modest LLJ, isentropic ascent is not much to bite off on. Kept a
broad 30-40 percent storm mention overnight largely for neighboring
office coordination purposes, but later forecasts may need to make
serious revisions to this pending the events of today.

LONG TERM...
As mentioned above, precipitation chances any given day through
mid-week will depend on what happens on the previous day with
coverage of convection. Models continue to generate precipitation
in the late late afternoon into the overnight hours as we keep
fairly unstable conditions in place aloft ahead of the slow
moving upper-level low that is currently over southern California.
Then there is the issue of the cold front that is still forecast
to arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday morning that will also help
to focus convection. The slow eastward progression of the low will
limit the amount of bulk shear across the forecast area, generally
ranging between 20-30 knots through Thursday which could also be a
factor in how storms develop and organize across the area. Will
keep chance PoPs in the forecast with a window for likely PoPs
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for the arrival of the front.
Chances for rain should finally start to taper off by Friday as
the upper level low is east of the area and moisture levels
decrease a bit. North to northeasterly flow aloft in both the
ECMWF and GFS should keep any convection in New Mexico while also
helping to keep temperatures from warming up too much and remain
3-5 degrees below normal.

Jordan

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

13/99/99




000
FXUS64 KAMA 301750
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1250 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.Aviation...
Cumulus layer between 4000 and 6000 feet expected to develop this
afternoon.  Scattered thunderstorms expected to develop across
western sections late this afternoon and evening as disturbance seen
in water vapor imagery arrives from southwest.  Low-level
convergence expected to be higher near and along surface trof/dryline
feature as it moves into western sections.  Further support for
thunderstorm development occurs as 700 mb theta-e ridge develops and
intensifies while moving into western sections.  Will carry VCTS
remarks during hours of expected occurrence.

Thunderstorms should be ended at terminals after 06z Tuesday.  Cold
front expected to arrive late in the forecast at northern terminals,
shifting surface winds to north.  Some suggestion of stratus behind
cold front at KGUY, but will not forecast an MVFR or lower ceiling at
this time.  VFR forecast continues next 24 hours.

Cockrell

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 609 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

Aviation...
VFR conditions expected to continue for the first few hours of the
12z taf cycle. There is a chance the 3500-4000 ft stratus deck
across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle may be able to move into
kdht and kama this morning but we should be able to hold onto VFR
conditions. Surface winds should also pick up at 16z with gusts up to
25 kt. As we move into the afternoon hours we could see another round
of convection but confidence is far too low to mention in prevailing
conditions. Any convection that does impact the terminals should
clear out by 06z.

Prev Discussion... /Issued 354 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

Discussion...
Early morning LAPS analysis shows surface flow is strongly
divergent centered near Childress in the wake of convective complex
last evening. Low level moisture has been depleted somewhat and it
may take some time to rectify this. The only observational data we
have now to gauge the degree of convective overturning is GNSS site
near Childress which has shown only modest reduction in precipitable
water from pre-convective peak of nearly 1.4 inches to the latest
observational value of around 1.1 inches.

In the short term guidance, 0-2 km mean theta-e and streamlines
suggest trajectories from generally along the edge or west of where
overturning was most pronounced. Nevertheless, significant cold pool
expansion from outflow propagation has occurred further south and
west than what is shown in short term guidance so it seems unlikely
that enough low level moisture will return for as much instability
as was seen yesterday, and this will tend to limit coverage and
intensity of convection. Have kept probabilities in the chance
category and used scattered wording as significant upscale growth
may be difficult to achieve at least on the level as was seen
yesterday. MLCAPE values should rise to around 1,500 J/kg in the
west but modest mid level flow will be present once again. 0-6 km
bulk shear values will only be 20-25 knots, although slightly higher
winds near the equilibrium level will yield higher storm depth shear
values. These values are insufficient for well-organized/persistent
storms. Models show noisy exaggerated shear values toward the end of
the day but this appears to be contaminated by convective
parametrization in the models and is not representative of or
derived from ambient flow.

Height and vorticity fields in the models early on are quite noisy
and it is difficult to pick out any substantial perturbations that
may aid in the development of convection once we destabilize
tomorrow afternoon. There is some indications of a weak wave in
Water Vapor across far west-central New Mexico and this may be well-
timed by mid afternoon. Furthermore, low level flow is at least
weakly confluent near sharpening/diffuse dryline close to the New
Mexico state line, and this should be where convection first
develops and initially becomes most concentrated. Current thinking
is by early afternoon convection will develop in a somewhat sparse
fashion across eastern New Mexico and continue eastward into the
Texas Panhandle during the afternoon. We retained at least small
probabilities further east during this time since even with the
conservative approach on low level moisture contribution to
instability, thermal profiles should be void of CIN by mid-
afternoon. Weak mid-upper ridging is likely to be present across the
central and eastern Panhandles though, and this should tend to limit
coverage, until perhaps later when 1.) this ridging deamplifies and
shifts east, and 2.) modest cold pool formation from convection back
to the west (if convection is extensive enough) moves east and aids
in thunderstorm persistence.

Hazards from afternoon convection include severe hail (although
updraft duration being limited by lack of storm organization from
weak deep layer shear will tend to limit hail size), damaging wind
gusts. Relatively slow storm motions could lead to locally heavy
rainfall and possibly flooding, although the moisture content and
spatial coverage of convection is expected to be less than
yesterday.

Deeper moisture is expected to return Tuesday. This in combination
with a southward moving cold front forced by northern stream wave
necessitates higher precipitation probabilities. A fairly high
confidence convective event is expected with enough instability
(1,500-2,000 MLCAPE) for severe thunderstorms. Mid level flow will
be weak again resulting in meager deep layer shear values generally
around 25 knots or less. Storms will tend to be weakly organized
multicellular with limited opportunity for transient supercell
characteristics. Thus, significant and/or widespread severe weather
is not expected. Storms may organize a cold pool similar to
yesterday and propagate eastward out of the area eventually
overnight. Heavy rain and flooding may again become a threat and
once spatial details on how convection will evolve become more clear
we will be able to better delineate threat areas for potentially
flooding or flash flooding. The greatest chance of heavy rainfall
amounts and flooding will be when storm motions are slow before cold
pool forms and storms accelerate eastward, like yesterday. Models
suggest PWAT values rising to 0.90-1.15 on the Caprock and around
1.25 or slightly higher off the Caprock across the eastern
Panhandles. We increased QPF for Tuesday slightly above model
consensus.

The front should continue southward bringing cool post frontal
potentially cloudy environment for the area Wednesday. Model
precipitation may be overzealous again for Wednesday in this post
frontal stable environment. We trended QPF and probabilities
downward to account for this but left low probabilities given a
northward trend noted with the upper low that continues to drift
toward the area. Some forcing and residual instability may be enough
for some convection in the southern portion of the Texas Panhandle
Wednesday. Dry weather is expected Thursday through at least
Saturday as the upper low moves across the state and further away
from us. Ridging will slowly build in and warmer temperatures will
return. The next chance of precipitation (albeit small chance) will
be Sunday as medium range models show ridge deamplifying some.

BRB

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/06




000
FXUS64 KHGX 301747
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1247 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Overnight activity from south central TX currently moving across
SE TX at this time. These rain not really holding together as it
encounters the drier/more stable airmass currently over the area.
Other than a few tweaks to the first few hours...we should most-
ly VFR conditions the rest of the afternoon. Patchy fog with low
clouds still progged for the overnight for the usual spots (CXO/
LBX) with the rest of the sites flirting with MVFR before/around
sunrise. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / 1006 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Updated forecast for line of strong storms pushing towards
Matagorda Bay and Jackson County. May see some gusty winds and
small hail with the line but it appears to be weakening. Broad
stratiform rain shield has set up north of the storms from
Columbus to College Station. Increased rain chances for areas west
of Houston but the overall weakening trend suggests these showers
and storms may dissipate before making to much more progress east.
The forecast may need to be updated again later this morning
depending on the trends.

Overall the forecast looks on track with maybe some isolated
showers/storms this afternoon and tomorrow. Rain chances increase
mid week with the threat of more heavy rainfall/severe weather for
the end of the week.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      84  70  85  71  83 /  50  10  30  30  70
Houston (IAH)              86  71  88  72  86 /  20  10  20  10  40
Galveston (GLS)            82  76  85  77  84 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KCRP 301727 AAD
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1227 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...18Z Aviation discussion is below synoptic update.
MCS has pushed offshore/diminished this morning with subsident
airmass on the backside overspreading S TX. However...despite
cold pool mixing to surface...clearing skies this afternoon should
allow for warming which may be sufficient for an isolated
shower/storm to redevelop. Better chances for afternoon convection
are currently expected to exist W and NW of the CWA. Will
continue to monitor and provide any additional afternoon updates
with main afternoon forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR this aftn as subsident airmass prevails across S
TX in wake of mrng convection. Sct CIGS around 4/5kft xpctd with
CIGS slowly lowering overnight /but generally clear enough for VFR
cloud conditions to prevail/. VSBYS may lower to MVFR overnight at
KVCT due to saturated soils and light sfc winds...but quickly
return to VFR levels by mid mrng. Period of MVFR CIGS possible at
KLRD shortly after sunrise thru mid mrng. Iso SHRA/TSRA possible
thru the taf period, but confidence not high enough at any one
site to include mention in TAFs attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  88  75  85  74  /  10  20  10  30  50
Victoria          72  87  73  85  71  /  10  20  10  50  60
Laredo            76  95  76  91  70  /  30  40  30  50  60
Alice             75  90  74  88  71  /  20  30  10  40  50
Rockport          78  84  78  83  76  /  10  20  10  30  50
Cotulla           75  91  72  87  70  /  40  50  30  60  60
Kingsville        76  90  76  88  73  /  20  20  10  30  50
Navy Corpus       78  83  78  83  76  /  10  20  10  20  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KMAF 301659
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1159 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail into the evening. Expect scattered
storms to develop later today with gusty winds and low
visibilities in and near the storms. Low clouds are once again
possible tonight mainly across the Permian Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  90  66  79 /  30  20  30  40
Carlsbad                       61  92  58  81 /  10  10  10  30
Dryden                         69  88  67  83 /  20  10  10  40
Fort Stockton                  65  92  66  86 /  20  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 62  84  59  81 /  10  10  10  30
Hobbs                          61  91  57  71 /  10  10  20  40
Marfa                          53  84  51  82 /  10  10  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           66  91  63  81 /  20  10  20  40
Odessa                         66  91  65  83 /  20  10  20  40
Wink                           66  94  63  86 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KFWD 301544
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1044 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The MCS that moved across North Texas overnight has moved east and
dissipated while the MCS that moved across Central Texas continues
to head southeast into the Coastal Bend region. Both of these
systems have stabilized the airmass over the region and PoPs for
the remainder of the day will be just 10-20 percent. The 20 PoPs
will be over the southeast zones, where a pocket of untapped
instability remains this morning, and also across the western
zones where several hours of afternoon sunshine are expected. In
these areas a few showers or storms may pop up with heating, but
without a lot of flow, they should remain stationary and generally
disorganized. Elsewhere, the mid and high clouds will gradually
clear, but once temps warm into the 80s some cumulus should
develop. Have adjusted the sky cover forecast and lowered high
temps a few degrees in some areas as a result.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 647 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
The complex of showers and thunderstorms that moved into the
Metroplex around 06z has weakened and moved to the east of a
K0F2-KF46-KINJ-KMKN line as of 11z. Expect mostly VFR conditions
to prevail today through 08-09z Tuesday with some MVFR ceilings
expected to move in before daybreak Tuesday. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible late afternoon into this evening but the
chances are way too low to include in the TAFs. At this time the
confidence that any storms that form out in West Texas this
afternoon will reach the I-35 corridor before 12z Tuesday is very
low so no VCTS or TSRA is mentioned in the 06z-12z period of the
forecast. Gusty south winds (up to around 30 knots) at 10z started
to shift to the north at around 10 knots as a weak boundary moved
through. These winds should go variable around 13z and come back
around to the south around 14z.

The rain will end at Waco 12-13z. Thus have started them off
with 6sm -RA but end the rain the next hour. Have left a tempo
BKN025 for the 13-15z period; otherwise, expect VFR conditions
through 09z Tuesday when some MVFR stratus is expected. Gusty
south winds up to around 30 knots at TAF issuance time, are
expected to decrease to 10-12 knots by 14z. As with the Metroplex
TAF sites, isolated thunderstorms are possible late afternoon into
this evening, but chances are not high enough to include at this
time.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    88  70  85  69  82 /  10  20  40  60  70
Waco                88  67  85  67  82 /  10  20  40  50  70
Paris               86  68  84  67  79 /  20  30  20  50  70
Denton              88  68  84  66  80 /  10  30  40  70  70
McKinney            87  68  85  67  81 /  10  20  30  60  70
Dallas              88  71  85  69  82 /  10  20  30  60  70
Terrell             87  68  85  68  82 /  10  20  30  50  70
Corsicana           86  69  86  69  81 /  10  20  30  50  70
Temple              84  67  83  67  81 /  20  20  40  50  70
Mineral Wells       87  68  82  65  79 /  20  30  50  70  70

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KCRP 301253 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
753 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...MCS barreling out of S Central TX should move into
N/NE CWA before weakening rapidly...as it encounters a much more
stable airmass. Few strong wind gusts possible across northern
row of counties. Have updated forecast to increase POPs across
these areas.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 635 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...Have updated POPs to bring in low end chance
wording for northern zones this morning with a noticeable push
southward in band of convection moving through the Hill Country.
Still expect this line of storms to gradually weaken as it runs
into a more stable atmosphere, but think some showers/storms will
make it into the area.

AVIATION...Some lower visbys this morning at ALI and VCT sites,
could go a bit lower as the sun comes up. Have tempo IFR
conditions mentioned in the tafs for these sites. Have added VCSH
for VCT site this morning with convection approaching from the
north. Currently has TS, but not confident TS will reach site. May
require TAF update later. Otherwise...expect mainly VFR
conditions during the day. Next chance for showers/storms will
begin this evening/tonight for LRD site and spread eastward during
the day Tuesday. Will have potential for fog at ALI and VCT once
again tonight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 427 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...One short wave currently
progressing eastward across South Texas with all associated
thunderstorm activity well to the north. While some earlier meso
model runs brought this convection south toward the forecast area
this morning, they have largely backed off on this. Could still
see a few showers develop as this short wave passes, but not
expecting much. Have lowered max temps west a bit today, with 850
temps forecast to only reach 19-20C...but still should reach the
lower 90s. Expect 80s across most of the rest of the area.

Next shortwave approaches this evening and pushes across the area
Tuesday. This wave a bit stronger than first, and has plenty of
moisture to work with. Should see convection fire in Mexico this
afternoon/evening and push eastward across the Rio Grande this
evening. Model guidance still not consistent with GFS limiting
convection to mainly Web/La Salle counties until Tuesday
afternoon, and ECMWF painting moderate to heavy rains across all
of South Texas. While ECMWF has been overdone with precip lately,
think the GFS is underdone. Expect we`ll see convection through
the Rio Grande Plains tonight and early Tuesday morning, then
weakening. Assuming the environment can recover, would then
expect a second round of convection in the afternoon from west to
east. GFS indicating pwat rebounding to around 2 inches by early
Tuesday with NAM lower...in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range. Will tend
to side with the GFS here with the amount of moisture already in
place over the region.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...ECWMF/GFS
deterministic predict similar upper pattern including the
timing/positioning of the next upper disturbance to move
across/provide synoptic scale lift to the CWA/MSA Wednesday Night
through Friday (The GFS ensemble mean adds credence to the GFS
solution.) The NWP models also predict similar timing/positioning
of an upper disturbance moving across the NRN Plains and
contributing to a cold front which moves into TX. The GFS ensemble
mean suggests that the front will stall over CNTRL TX Thursday.
GFS deterministic output predict copious moisture per well above
normal PWAT values in advance of the front. Anticipate that the
combination of copious moisture/upper forcing/convergence
associated with the frontal boundary will result in scattered/
numerous convection Wednesday night through Friday over the
CWA/MSA. Efficient rainfall production appears likely (based in
part on GFS deterministic soundings.) A heavy rainfall event is
possible Thursday/Friday. Uncertainty of widespread flash flooding
is directly related to the position of the frontal boundary. A
transition to synoptic scale descent anticipated Saturday Night/
Sunday. Nevertheless...lingering moisture may contribute to
additional isolated/scattered convection Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  88  75  85  74  /  10  20  10  30  50
Victoria          72  87  73  85  71  /  10  20  10  50  60
Laredo            76  95  76  91  70  /  30  40  30  50  60
Alice             75  90  74  88  71  /  20  30  10  40  50
Rockport          78  84  78  83  76  /  10  20  10  30  50
Cotulla           75  91  72  87  70  /  40  50  30  60  60
Kingsville        76  90  76  88  73  /  20  20  10  30  50
Navy Corpus       78  83  78  83  76  /  10  20  10  20  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Update...HART/79




000
FXUS64 KHGX 301209
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
709 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Another in a string of early mornings whereas western convective
cirrus blow off has thwarted any significant areawide lowering of
flight category ceilings/visbies. There are a few rural hubs
(CXO, LBX) where thinner cirrus have allowed the lowering of
visbies. After a couple of days of no thunder...this may be the
day that many more interior hubs experience a brief late afternoon
thunderstorm. An unstable and increasingly more moist regional air
mass will likely pop thunder once surface temperatures exceed 86
F. Far interior convection may occur once again late this
afternoon into the evening but this TAF advertises less cirrus
than in previous mornings...thus anticipating higher chances for
MVFR-IFR decks and MVFR lowering to (L)IFR visbies. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Large storm complex extending from central to north central Texas is
edging to the east and southeast early this morning. At this time, do
not think this system`s showers and thunderstorms will make it into
Southeast Texas. Low rain chances are in the area`s forecast today to
cover any boundary development from this system, and for any daytime
heat induced storms. Will start to raise area rain chances just a little
bit on Tuesday as weak mid/upper disturbances move across the area.
Better rain chances enter the picture beginning on Wednesday and persist
through the end of the week and on into the weekend as the mid/upper
level low currently in Southern California works its way into Texas
and stalls. Look for a series of slow moving disturbances associated
with this low to move across the state and help to generate periods
of showers and thunderstorms. Some strong/severe storms could accompany
this activity, but of more concern due to our area`s recent heavy rainfall
is the rising precipitable water values in combination with increasingly
favorable upper level wind patterns will have the potential to produce
periods of locally heavy rainfall. Any of this rain falling on already
very wet/saturated grounds and elevated rivers/bayous will lead to an
increasing threat for flooding.  42

MARINE...
A tranquil Memorial Day across the local bay and gulf waters as the
weather is currently being influenced by southeastern U.S.-based
high pressure. Light onshore winds over low seas and slightly choppy
bay waters. Lowering western plains and lower Rio Grande Valley
pressures will tighten the mid-week pressure gradient enough to
slightly strengthen southerlies. Increasing chances that a late week
developing Texas coastal bend trough of low pressure will pick up
rain and storm chances. The forecast passage of this surface low
over the northwestern Gulf will create moderate chances for more
continuous showers and storms next weekend. During this late week
period...general east-southeast winds/seas will be relatively
weak/low but higher storm chances will generate a greater threat for
localized strong winds and more violent seas within the vicinity of
any thunderstorm. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      87  70  85  71  83 /  20  10  30  30  70
Houston (IAH)              87  71  88  72  86 /  20  10  20  10  40
Galveston (GLS)            83  76  85  77  84 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31




000
FXUS64 KSJT 301200
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
700 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus will affect the terminals this morning, with mainly
MVFR ceilings expected through 17Z. VFR conditions will prevail
across the terminals this afternoon and evening. Confidence
regarding convective development across the terminals this
evening and overnight is low at this time. Most favored
terminals to see SHRA/TS is KSJT and KSOA this evening.
For now included VCTS for several hours at both terminals.
Stratus is expected to return overnight, with MVFR ceilings
developing after 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 543 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

The aforementioned upper low will move very slowly east along or
just south of the southwest U.S. and Mexico border Tuesday and
Wednesday, and into southeastern New Mexico Wednesday night. With
the gradual approach of this system, the chance for showers and
thunderstorms will continue Tuesday and Tuesday night, increasing
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

From early Thursday to Friday evening, the upper low is progged to
continue a very slow movement from southeastern New Mexico to
central or south-central Texas, and then drifting into Deep South
Texas or the lower Rio Grande Valley next weekend.

A weak cold front progged to enter our area Wednesday into early
Thursday could provide a focus for convective development. With
increased large scale ascent and precipitable water values remaining
generally in the range of 1.2 to 1.6 inches, anticipate more
widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms, with additional
heavy rainfall Wednesday through Thursday. Given the model forecast
and recent rainfall trends across our area, a Flood or Flash Flood
Watch will need to be considered in the coming days.

Temperatures will be cooler following the cold frontal passage.
Unless the models trend faster with the forecast track of the
upper low across Texas, our rain chances will continue through the
end of this week and possibly linger into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  85  67  85  66 /  20  40  50  70
San Angelo  87  68  87  67 /  30  50  40  50
Junction  87  68  83  68 /  50  40  50  60

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for Kimble-Mason-
Menard-Sutton.

&&

$$

99/99/24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301156
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
656 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/

Complex of storms surging south across SAT/SSF in the first couple
hours of the TAF period...with stratiform rain and occasional
lightning resulting in improvements over AUS. A delayed wind shift
at DRT should arrive at 13Z and be followed shortly by VCSH and
possibly some scattered TSRA in the area in the few hours to
follow. Stabilized conditions are expected in the late morning for
a few hours...with a possible midday recovery of low clouds to
MVFR levels before resuming as VFR cumulus. A worked over airmass
should lead to a mostly fair evening, then trending to more MVFR
to IFR CIGS late. Mesoscale models show poor agreement on how fast
he air destabilizes in the wake of this mornings complex, so will
keep the later TAF periods simplified until details become
apparent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

..LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...

Main focus this period will be on the incoming thunderstorm line
that is approaching South-Central Texas this morning. Pockets of
heavy rain are expected as the line moves through and localized
flash flooding could occur given the very saturated soil from
the recent abundant rainfall. A flash flood watch is in place for
the Hill Country and portions of the Edwards Plateau through 1pm. The
flash flooding risk should decrease through the early afternoon as
the line weakens and moves south.

A large MCS developed across the panhandle of Texas last night
and is now moving south towards the Hill Country and northern
I-35 corridor. This line will move in over the next several hours.
Rainfall rates have been around an inch to inch and half with the
southward progressing line. A few showers have also developed
ahead of the line in Kerr and this area (along with the Hill
country) will need to be monitored for local enhancement and
sustainability of stronger updrafts resulting in higher rainfall
totals. Low-level flow is balanced well with the strong cold pool
of the storm complex and this will sustain the current strength of
the complex as it moves south. Pockets of 30-50 mph winds will
also be likely with the line as it moves through.

The complex should slowly weaken through the mid to late morning.
This will likely result in a lull of shower activity across a good
portion of the region through early to mid afternoon as the
atmosphere attempts to recover. Hi-res models have done a poor job
over the past 24 hours, so little confidence is being placed in
them currently. Of the ensembles that do show the current line,
some renewed activity could be possible late afternoon and
evening as a H5 impulse moves over the region helping increase
upper level divergence. In addition to this activity, west Texas
and the Burro Mountain range should also see storm development.
Will need to monitor if this activity can make it off the
mountains and cross the Rio Grande.

Overnight and into Tuesday morning should see a slow decrease of
rain/storms for western areas but continued SW flow aloft and
implied shortwave troughs make it difficult to remove all weather
mention during any period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
again expected Tuesday afternoon under this regime. Will need to
monitor closely if any complexes are able to develop for a more
concentrated rainfall hazard Tuesday.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday)...

More rain is expected mid- to late-week as a weak front stalls
over the region and then a mid- to upper-level low develops and
moves very slowly over Texas. Periods of heavy rainfall could
occur Wednesday into Thursday with more scattered activity late
week and weekend. With area soils so saturated, localized flash
flooding could be a possibility again over a larger swath of the
region.

A deep, closed low developing across northern Mexico by Wednesday is
agreed upon my multi model guidance. Stronger H5 flow along with
ample moisture and a weak front across the region will support
widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into early
Thursday. With PWATS 1.8"-2.0", localized areas of heavy rainfall
could occur. It`s possible that a new flash flood watch could be
issued during this time frame.

The mid- to upper-level low is forecast to get cut-off from the
main flow and will stagnate over Texas late week and early
weekend. This will keep higher rain chances and below normal
temperatures in place. Given the cooler conditions, instability
may be lower and thus convective rainfall rates could be more
difficult to occur. Overall rainfall amounts mid-week to the
weekend could be 2-4 with locally 5 inches. If more sun and
instability was able to occur within the upper-low then higher
rainfall rates could be locally possible. This will need to be
looked at on a day by day basis. Deeper NW flow should develop on
the back side of the slowly exiting low/trough by late weekend
and early next week. This should allow for drier and continued
cooler than normal conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  70  85  70  81 /  70  20  50  40  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  69  85  69  82 /  70  20  50  40  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     85  69  85  69  81 /  70  20  50  40  70
Burnet Muni Airport            84  69  80  68  79 /  60  20  50  60  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           88  73  88  73  84 /  30  40  50  60  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        84  68  81  67  80 /  60  20  50  40  70
Hondo Muni Airport             86  72  87  70  82 /  70  30  60  50  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        85  70  84  70  82 /  70  20  50  40  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   86  71  85  72  84 /  60  10  30  30  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       85  74  85  70  82 /  70  30  50  40  70
Stinson Muni Airport           86  72  85  72  83 /  70  30  50  40  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the following
counties: Bandera...Blanco...Edwards...Gillespie...Kendall...Kerr...
Kinney...Medina...Real...Uvalde...Val Verde.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...Allen




000
FXUS64 KCRP 301135
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
635 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Have updated POPs to bring in low end chance
wording for northern zones this morning with a noticeable push
southward in band of convection moving through the Hill Country.
Still expect this line of storms to gradually weaken as it runs
into a more stable atmosphere, but think some showers/storms will
make it into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Some lower visbys this morning at ALI and VCT sites,
could go a bit lower as the sun comes up. Have tempo IFR
conditions mentioned in the tafs for these sites. Have added VCSH
for VCT site this morning with convection approaching from the
north. Currently has TS, but not confident TS will reach site. May
require TAF update later. Otherwise...expect mainly VFR
conditions during the day. Next chance for showers/storms will
begin this evening/tonight for LRD site and spread eastward during
the day Tuesday. Will have potential for fog at ALI and VCT once
again tonight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 427 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...One short wave currently
progressing eastward across South Texas with all associated
thunderstorm activity well to the north. While some earlier meso
model runs brought this convection south toward the forecast area
this morning, they have largely backed off on this. Could still
see a few showers develop as this short wave passes, but not
expecting much. Have lowered max temps west a bit today, with 850
temps forecast to only reach 19-20C...but still should reach the
lower 90s. Expect 80s across most of the rest of the area.

Next shortwave approaches this evening and pushes across the area
Tuesday. This wave a bit stronger than first, and has plenty of
moisture to work with. Should see convection fire in Mexico this
afternoon/evening and push eastward across the Rio Grande this
evening. Model guidance still not consistent with GFS limiting
convection to mainly Web/La Salle counties until Tuesday
afternoon, and ECMWF painting moderate to heavy rains across all
of South Texas. While ECMWF has been overdone with precip lately,
think the GFS is underdone. Expect we`ll see convection through
the Rio Grande Plains tonight and early Tuesday morning, then
weakening. Assuming the environment can recover, would then
expect a second round of convection in the afternoon from west to
east. GFS indicating pwat rebounding to around 2 inches by early
Tuesday with NAM lower...in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range. Will tend
to side with the GFS here with the amount of moisture already in
place over the region.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...ECWMF/GFS
deterministic predict similar upper pattern including the
timing/positioning of the next upper disturbance to move
across/provide synoptic scale lift to the CWA/MSA Wednesday Night
through Friday (The GFS ensemble mean adds credence to the GFS
solution.) The NWP models also predict similar timing/positioning
of an upper disturbance moving across the NRN Plains and
contributing to a cold front which moves into TX. The GFS ensemble
mean suggests that the front will stall over CNTRL TX Thursday.
GFS deterministic output predict copious moisture per well above
normal PWAT values in advance of the front. Anticipate that the
combination of copious moisture/upper forcing/convergence
associated with the frontal boundary will result in scattered/
numerous convection Wednesday night through Friday over the
CWA/MSA. Efficient rainfall production appears likely (based in
part on GFS deterministic soundings.) A heavy rainfall event is
possible Thursday/Friday. Uncertainty of widespread flash flooding
is directly related to the position of the frontal boundary. A
transition to synoptic scale descent anticipated Saturday Night/
Sunday. Nevertheless...lingering moisture may contribute to
additional isolated/scattered convection Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  88  75  85  74  /  10  20  10  30  50
Victoria          72  87  73  85  71  /  10  20  10  50  60
Laredo            76  95  76  91  70  /  30  40  30  50  60
Alice             75  90  74  88  71  /  20  30  10  40  50
Rockport          78  84  78  83  76  /  10  20  10  30  50
Cotulla           75  91  72  87  70  /  40  50  30  60  60
Kingsville        76  90  76  88  73  /  20  20  10  30  50
Navy Corpus       78  83  78  83  76  /  10  20  10  20  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KLUB 301129
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
629 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Two areas of low ceilings are encroaching on all terminals at 630
AM - the first is an IFR layer off the Caprock which should envelop
CDS shortly while the second is MVFR about 30W of LBB and PVW and
expanding quickly eastward.

LBB and PVW could fall to IFR for a short while this morning, but
satellite trends suggest MVFR should prevail here. Low ceilings
should erode and restore VFR by midday ahead of TS development
in eastern NM. Will keep TS out of TAFs for now as TS coverage
and duration are just too uncertain this many hours out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Large MCS with cloud tops as cold as -76C continued to roll south
into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau at 3 AM. A large
mesohigh axis extended all the way from the wake of this MCS
northwest to the southwest TX Panhandle with rather low dewpoints
in the lower 50s over much of our CWA. Combined with some stratus
at times, these features are significant enough to warrant a
significant reduction in POPs today as sufficient moisture
recovery and destabilization will face many headwinds. 06Z NAM has
improved markedly over the 00Z iteration with the handling of the
MCS, so if this is correct then there would be a protracted lull
in precip today - much to the joy of outdoor parade attendees. The
one exception to this should occur in our W-SW zones later this
afternoon and evening as upslope storms from NM make strides
northeastward. This activity should be aided by stronger
southwesterlies aloft preceding an upper low in southern CA.
Although marginally severe storms could still emerge within a
narrow corridor of instability along the TX-NM border, feel SPC`s
assessment is solid so we have nixed the earlier severe mention
from the grids.

Ability for surface based storms in our western zones to transition
to elevated modes tonight is not clear at this time. Although low
level moisture improvements will be underway overnight courtesy of a
modest LLJ, isentropic ascent is not much to bite off on. Kept a
broad 30-40 percent storm mention overnight largely for neighboring
office coordination purposes, but later forecasts may need to make
serious revisions to this pending the events of today.

LONG TERM...
As mentioned above, precipitation chances any given day through
mid-week will depend on what happens on the previous day with
coverage of convection. Models continue to generate precipitation
in the late late afternoon into the overnight hours as we keep
fairly unstable conditions in place aloft ahead of the slow
moving upper-level low that is currently over southern California.
Then there is the issue of the cold front that is still forecast
to arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday morning that will also help
to focus convection. The slow eastward progression of the low will
limit the amount of bulk shear across the forecast area, generally
ranging between 20-30 knots through Thursday which could also be a
factor in how storms develop and organize across the area. Will
keep chance PoPs in the forecast with a window for likely PoPs
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for the arrival of the front.
Chances for rain should finally start to taper off by Friday as
the upper level low is east of the area and moisture levels
decrease a bit. North to northeasterly flow aloft in both the
ECMWF and GFS should keep any convection in New Mexico while also
helping to keep temperatures from warming up too much and remain
3-5 degrees below normal.

Jordan

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

93/14/93




000
FXUS64 KMAF 301118
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings will continue spreading across the area and are
expected to dissipate around 16z. Winds are expected to mostly be
out of the south to southeast during the period. There is a chance
of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening but probabilities are
not high enough to mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough has moved inland to the CA/AZ
border over the last 24 hours, leaving West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico under continued SW flow aloft.  Latest sfc observations have
the dryline backed up against the mtns again, w/dewpoints better
than 50F everywhere.  Area radars show last night`s MCS still going
strong over Central Texas, and the cold pool it sent thru KMAF
earlier continues to work its way south attm. This will play hob
w/temps and instability today, rendering current model guidance
somewhat moot.  In addition, cloud cover yesterday limited
temps/convection, and may do so again today. That said, the best
focus for convection today will be the dryline and the boundary
that moved thru here earlier.  Forecast soundings continue to show
afternoon capes east of the dryline in excess of 2500J/kg, w/mid-lvl
LRs of 7C/km or better throughout the FA, suggestive of a continuing
large threat.  High cloud bases and dcapes above 1000J/kg will keep
a wind threat in play, as well.  0-6km shear doesn`t look quite as
impressive as yesterday, but a severe storm or two can`t be ruled
out, and we`ll leave a mention in the grids.

The upper trough is forecast to move south of the AZ border by
Tuesday afternoon, creep thru nrn Sonora/Chihuahua Wednesday, and
pass thru West Texas Thursday.  This will continue a chance of
convection along and east of the dryline daily thru then, w/forecast
soundings yielding similar parameters for severe wx daily as those
mentioned above, i.e., large hail/damaging winds.  However, we`ll
restrict a mention of this to the HWO beyond today.  Temperatures
should stay close to normal today and Tuesday, but should come down
significantly Wednesday/Thursday w/the arrival of a cold front
Tuesday night and decreasing thicknesses w/the approach of the
trough.  Beyond Thursday, the trough is forecast to open and stall
over the Texas Gulf Coast, preventing ridging from building into our
area and keeping temps 5-10 degrees below normal.

Finally, the dryline may move far enough east Tuesday afternoon to
expose the Guadalupes to a few hours of critical fire wx
conditions, and we`ll issue a watch for then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  68  90  66 /  20  30  20  30
Carlsbad                       92  61  92  58 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         91  69  88  67 /  40  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  89  65  92  66 /  20  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  62  84  59 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          86  61  91  57 /  20  10  10  20
Marfa                          82  53  84  51 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  66  91  63 /  20  20  10  20
Odessa                         90  66  91  65 /  20  20  10  20
Wink                           92  66  94  63 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/




000
FXUS64 KAMA 301109
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
609 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.Aviation...
VFR conditions expected to continue for the first few hours of the
12z taf cycle. There is a chance the 3500-4000 ft stratus deck
across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle may be able to move into
kdht and kama this morning but we should be able to hold onto VFR
conditions. Surface winds should also pick up at 16z with gusts up to
25 kt. As we move into the afternoon hours we could see another round
of convection but confidence is far too low to mention in prevailing
conditions. Any convection that does impact the terminals should
clear out by 06z.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 354 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

Discussion...
Early morning LAPS analysis shows surface flow is strongly
divergent centered near Childress in the wake of convective complex
last evening. Low level moisture has been depleted somewhat and it
may take some time to rectify this. The only observational data we
have now to gauge the degree of convective overturning is GNSS site
near Childress which has shown only modest reduction in precipitable
water from pre-convective peak of nearly 1.4 inches to the latest
observational value of around 1.1 inches.

In the short term guidance, 0-2 km mean theta-e and streamlines
suggest trajectories from generally along the edge or west of where
overturning was most pronounced. Nevertheless, significant cold pool
expansion from outflow propagation has occurred further south and
west than what is shown in short term guidance so it seems unlikely
that enough low level moisture will return for as much instability
as was seen yesterday, and this will tend to limit coverage and
intensity of convection. Have kept probabilities in the chance
category and used scattered wording as significant upscale growth
may be difficult to achieve at least on the level as was seen
yesterday. MLCAPE values should rise to around 1,500 J/kg in the
west but modest mid level flow will be present once again. 0-6 km
bulk shear values will only be 20-25 knots, although slightly higher
winds near the equilibrium level will yield higher storm depth shear
values. These values are insufficient for well-organized/persistent
storms. Models show noisy exaggerated shear values toward the end of
the day but this appears to be contaminated by convective
parametrization in the models and is not representative of or
derived from ambient flow.

Height and vorticity fields in the models early on are quite noisy
and it is difficult to pick out any substantial perturbations that
may aid in the development of convection once we destabilize
tomorrow afternoon. There is some indications of a weak wave in
Water Vapor across far west-central New Mexico and this may be well-
timed by mid afternoon. Furthermore, low level flow is at least
weakly confluent near sharpening/diffuse dryline close to the New
Mexico state line, and this should be where convection first
develops and initially becomes most concentrated. Current thinking
is by early afternoon convection will develop in a somewhat sparse
fashion across eastern New Mexico and continue eastward into the
Texas Panhandle during the afternoon. We retained at least small
probabilities further east during this time since even with the
conservative approach on low level moisture contribution to
instability, thermal profiles should be void of CIN by mid-
afternoon. Weak mid-upper ridging is likely to be present across the
central and eastern Panhandles though, and this should tend to limit
coverage, until perhaps later when 1.) this ridging deamplifies and
shifts east, and 2.) modest cold pool formation from convection back
to the west (if convection is extensive enough) moves east and aids
in thunderstorm persistence.

Hazards from afternoon convection include severe hail (although
updraft duration being limited by lack of storm organization from
weak deep layer shear will tend to limit hail size), damaging wind
gusts. Relatively slow storm motions could lead to locally heavy
rainfall and possibly flooding, although the moisture content and
spatial coverage of convection is expected to be less than
yesterday.

Deeper moisture is expected to return Tuesday. This in combination
with a southward moving cold front forced by northern stream wave
necessitates higher precipitation probabilities. A fairly high
confidence convective event is expected with enough instability
(1,500-2,000 MLCAPE) for severe thunderstorms. Mid level flow will
be weak again resulting in meager deep layer shear values generally
around 25 knots or less. Storms will tend to be weakly organized
multicellular with limited opportunity for transient supercell
characteristics. Thus, significant and/or widespread severe weather
is not expected. Storms may organize a cold pool similar to
yesterday and propagate eastward out of the area eventually
overnight. Heavy rain and flooding may again become a threat and
once spatial details on how convection will evolve become more clear
we will be able to better delineate threat areas for potentially
flooding or flash flooding. The greatest chance of heavy rainfall
amounts and flooding will be when storm motions are slow before cold
pool forms and storms accelerate eastward, like yesterday. Models
suggest PWAT values rising to 0.90-1.15 on the Caprock and around
1.25 or slightly higher off the Caprock across the eastern
Panhandles. We increased QPF for Tuesday slightly above model
consensus.

The front should continue southward bringing cool post frontal
potentially cloudy environment for the area Wednesday. Model
precipitation may be overzealous again for Wednesday in this post
frontal stable environment. We trended QPF and probabilities
downward to account for this but left low probabilities given a
northward trend noted with the upper low that continues to drift
toward the area. Some forcing and residual instability may be enough
for some convection in the southern portion of the Texas Panhandle
Wednesday. Dry weather is expected Thursday through at least
Saturday as the upper low moves across the state and further away
from us. Ridging will slowly build in and warmer temperatures will
return. The next chance of precipitation (albeit small chance) will
be Sunday as medium range models show ridge deamplifying some.

BRB

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/17




000
FXUS64 KLUB 300904
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
404 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Large MCS with cloud tops as cold as -76C continued to roll south
into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau at 3 AM. A large
mesohigh axis extended all the way from the wake of this MCS
northwest to the southwest TX Panhandle with rather low dewpoints
in the lower 50s over much of our CWA. Combined with some stratus
at times, these features are significant enough to warrant a
significant reduction in POPs today as sufficient moisture
recovery and destabilization will face many headwinds. 06Z NAM has
improved markedly over the 00Z iteration with the handling of the
MCS, so if this is correct then there would be a protracted lull
in precip today - much to the joy of outdoor parade attendees. The
one exception to this should occur in our W-SW zones later this
afternoon and evening as upslope storms from NM make strides
northeastward. This activity should be aided by stronger
southwesterlies aloft preceding an upper low in southern CA.
Although marginally severe storms could still emerge within a
narrow corridor of instability along the TX-NM border, feel SPC`s
assessment is solid so we have nixed the earlier severe mention
from the grids.

Ability for surface based storms in our western zones to transition
to elevated modes tonight is not clear at this time. Although low
level moisture improvements will be underway overnight courtesy of a
modest LLJ, isentropic ascent is not much to bite off on. Kept a
broad 30-40 percent storm mention overnight largely for neighboring
office coordination purposes, but later forecasts may need to make
serious revisions to this pending the events of today.

.LONG TERM...
As mentioned above, precipitation chances any given day through
mid-week will depend on what happens on the previous day with
coverage of convection. Models continue to generate precipitation
in the late late afternoon into the overnight hours as we keep
fairly unstable conditions in place aloft ahead of the slow
moving upper-level low that is currently over southern California.
Then there is the issue of the cold front that is still forecast
to arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday morning that will also help
to focus convection. The slow eastward progression of the low will
limit the amount of bulk shear across the forecast area, generally
ranging between 20-30 knots through Thursday which could also be a
factor in how storms develop and organize across the area. Will
keep chance PoPs in the forecast with a window for likely PoPs
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for the arrival of the front.
Chances for rain should finally start to taper off by Friday as
the upper level low is east of the area and moisture levels
decrease a bit. North to northeasterly flow aloft in both the
ECMWF and GFS should keep any convection in New Mexico while also
helping to keep temperatures from warming up too much and remain
3-5 degrees below normal.

Jordan

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

93/14




000
FXUS64 KFWD 300841
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
341 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Yet another MCS has entered North and Central TX early this
morning, bringing some severe storms and flooding to portions of
the area. 3AM radar depicts an MCV over Parker County, which
continues to generate heavy rain and frequent lightning across
most of North TX. Despite a fairly weak radar presentation,
activity associated with this feature has maintained cloud tops
of -70C or less, and this deep convection continues to be an efficient
rainfall producer. Elsewhere, a few strong storms which are still
ingesting some surface based instability are located in our
southwest zones near Lampasas and Gatesville, and these cells have
the ability to still become strong or borderline severe through
about 4AM. This line will continue pushing south and east out of
our CWA by late morning, but the intensity should continue to
trend downward along the way.

For the rest of the Memorial Day holiday, after activity departs
our area to the south this morning, skies should become partly
cloudy with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s, much like
yesterday afternoon. There will only be a slight chance for
isolated thunderstorms to redevelop this afternoon and have left
mostly 10-20% chances across the area. Should any shower or storm
manage to develop this afternoon, it shouldn`t be long lived or
widespread enough to completely ruin any outdoor plans to wrap up
the holiday weekend.

Early morning water vapor imagery depicts broad upper troughing
that has taken up residence over the western CONUS. This feature
will be the main influence for our weather for the next 7 days in
a slow-progressing pattern that will plague the region with
numerous opportunities for showers and storms all week. This trend
continues tonight when additional dryline convection is possible
in West TX. Most CAMs are reluctant to bring this activity into
North and Central TX, but with a moist and unstable airmass still
in place, I see no reason as to why another batch of storms
couldn`t find it`s way into areas west of I-35 again on Tuesday
morning. Have left PoPs of 40-50% out west with fairly low
confidence of convective trends this evening and overnight.

As the upper trough continues to deepen and drift southeast, it
will drag a cold front into the Southern Plains on Tuesday and
Wednesday. It looks like our first wave of storms from these
features will arrive Tuesday afternoon and evening as a complex of
storms in Oklahoma moves southward into North Texas. There may be
at least a low-end severe threat during this time with moderate
instability and bulk shear around 30 kts present in the warm
sector airmass ahead of the front.

The cold front itself will move into North Texas on Wednesday
bringing continued chances for widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms as broad upper-level diffluence accompanies the
approaching cutoff low. The frontal boundary will be slow to
shift southward, and storm motions will be slow due to weak flow
aloft. These factors will culminate in an isolated flood threat
for especially on Wednesday and Thursday as scattered showers and
storms continue. In this type of regime, it is impossible to say
who will get heavy rain and who won`t, and it`s also impossible to
pin down what time activity will impact a given location. In
general, there will be off-and-on chances for thunderstorms and
heavy rain throughout the entire middle portion of the week.
Abundant cloud cover and cooler air behind the front will act to
keep temperatures below seasonable normals.

Much to the disappointment of folks hoping for some quieter
weather, the GFS and ECMWF have drastically slowed down the
eastward progression of the upper low through the end of the
week. Both models now linger the cutoff low across Mexico and the
western Gulf of Mexico all the way through next weekend. This
will result in additional rain and thunderstorm chances on at
least Friday and Saturday, and have continued to raise PoPs
accounting for this trend. The trough axis is advertised to move
south of the area on Sunday, and 850mb winds becoming increasingly
northeasterly would mean that we would finally become cut off from
most of our moisture supply. Models will probably continue to
flip-flop on the timing of the upper low progression for the next
couple days, and while it is still unclear how long this trough
will take to move east out of our area, once it does, at least a
few days of calm weather will follow.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/
A thunderstorm complex will move slowly east/southeast across
North Texas and will impact the Metroplex TAF sites between 07 and
11Z. The storm complex will move into Central Texas toward
sunrise. Some MVFR ceilings will accompany the storms and remain
in place through mid morning Monday. VFR conditions will prevail
at all North and Central Texas TAF sites Monday afternoon and
evening.

A southeast wind will continue between 8 and 12 knots except for
stronger gusts in and near thunderstorms.

Additional thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon and evening
but confidence is low on the timing and coverage so will not
include in the extend portion of this forecast.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  70  85  69  82 /  30  20  40  60  70
Waco                89  67  85  67  82 /  40  20  40  50  70
Paris               87  68  84  67  79 /  20  30  20  50  70
Denton              88  68  84  66  80 /  30  30  40  70  70
McKinney            88  68  85  67  81 /  30  20  30  60  70
Dallas              89  71  85  69  82 /  30  20  30  60  70
Terrell             89  68  85  68  82 /  20  20  30  50  70
Corsicana           89  69  86  69  81 /  20  20  30  50  70
Temple              86  67  83  67  81 /  50  20  40  50  70
Mineral Wells       87  68  82  65  79 /  30  30  50  70  70

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

58/77




000
FXUS64 KEWX 300827
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
327 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...

Main focus this period will be on the incoming thunderstorm line
that is approaching South-Central Texas this morning. Pockets of
heavy rain are expected as the line moves through and localized
flash flooding could occur given the very saturated soil from
the recent abundant rainfall. A flash flood watch is in place for
the Hill Country and portions of the Edwards Plateau through 1pm. The
flash flooding risk should decrease through the early afternoon as
the line weakens and moves south.

A large MCS developed across the panhandle of Texas last night
and is now moving south towards the Hill Country and northern
I-35 corridor. This line will move in over the next several hours.
Rainfall rates have been around an inch to inch and half with the
southward progressing line. A few showers have also developed
ahead of the line in Kerr and this area (along with the Hill
country) will need to be monitored for local enhancement and
sustainability of stronger updrafts resulting in higher rainfall
totals. Low-level flow is balanced well with the strong cold pool
of the storm complex and this will sustain the current strength of
the complex as it moves south. Pockets of 30-50 mph winds will
also be likely with the line as it moves through.

The complex should slowly weaken through the mid to late morning.
This will likely result in a lull of shower activity across a good
portion of the region through early to mid afternoon as the
atmosphere attempts to recover. Hi-res models have done a poor job
over the past 24 hours, so little confidence is being placed in
them currently. Of the ensembles that do show the current line,
some renewed activity could be possible late afternoon and
evening as a H5 impulse moves over the region helping increase
upper level divergence. In addition to this activity, west Texas
and the Burro Mountain range should also see storm development.
Will need to monitor if this activity can make it off the
mountains and cross the Rio Grande.

Overnight and into Tuesday morning should see a slow decrease of
rain/storms for western areas but continued SW flow aloft and
implied shortwave troughs make it difficult to remove all weather
mention during any period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
again expected Tuesday afternoon under this regime. Will need to
monitor closely if any complexes are able to develop for a more
concentrated rainfall hazard Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday)...

More rain is expected mid- to late-week as a weak front stalls
over the region and then a mid- to upper-level low develops and
moves very slowly over Texas. Periods of heavy rainfall could
occur Wednesday into Thursday with more scattered activity late
week and weekend. With area soils so saturated, localized flash
flooding could be a possibility again over a larger swath of the
region.

A deep, closed low developing across northern Mexico by Wednesday is
agreed upon my multi model guidance. Stronger H5 flow along with
ample moisture and a weak front across the region will support
widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into early
Thursday. With PWATS 1.8"-2.0", localized areas of heavy rainfall
could occur. It`s possible that a new flash flood watch could be
issued during this time frame.

The mid- to upper-level low is forecast to get cut-off from the
main flow and will stagnate over Texas late week and early
weekend. This will keep higher rain chances and below normal
temperatures in place. Given the cooler conditions, instability
may be lower and thus convective rainfall rates could be more
difficult to occur. Overall rainfall amounts mid-week to the
weekend could be 2-4 with locally 5 inches. If more sun and
instability was able to occur within the upper-low then higher
rainfall rates could be locally possible. This will need to be
looked at on a day by day basis. Deeper NW flow should develop on
the back side of the slowly exiting low/trough by late weekend
and early next week. This should allow for drier and continued
cooler than normal conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  70  85  70  81 /  60  20  50  40  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  69  85  69  82 /  60  20  50  40  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     85  69  85  69  81 /  60  20  50  40  70
Burnet Muni Airport            84  69  80  68  79 /  60  20  50  60  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           88  73  88  73  84 /  40  40  50  60  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        84  68  81  67  80 /  60  20  50  40  70
Hondo Muni Airport             86  72  87  70  82 /  50  30  60  50  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        85  70  84  70  82 /  60  20  50  40  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   86  71  85  72  84 /  50  10  30  30  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       85  74  85  70  82 /  60  30  50  40  70
Stinson Muni Airport           86  72  85  72  83 /  50  30  50  40  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the following
counties: Bandera...Blanco...Edwards...Gillespie...Kendall...Kerr...
Kinney...Medina...Real...Uvalde...Val Verde.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...Allen




000
FXUS64 KMAF 300525
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1225 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See the 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will continue to be gusty out of the northeast as an outflow
boundary/haboob pushes southward. Winds are expected to decrease
and return to the southeast by 12z. Low ceilings will continue to
move into the area and are expected to dissipate around 16z
Monday. Winds will be elevated out of the south Monday afternoon
with thunderstorm chances increasing around mid to late afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Broken to overcast skies have kept convection at bay so far, but
satellite and radar are showing developing showers in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where clouds are more scattered,
beginning a round of thunderstorms across much of the area.
Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will produce CAPE values in excess
of 4000 J/kg and combined with 0-6km shear of 35-50kts will ensure
some storms will be severe. The HRRR and local WRF indicate the
storm type will begin as discrete supercells possibly forming a
multicell line somewhere in the Permian Basin before pushing east
overnight. Large hail and even isolated tornadoes will be
possible so this situation will need to be closely monitored over
the next several hours especially given this is a holiday weekend.

Conditions set up much the same tomorrow with abundant low level
moisture and afternoon heating leading to a great deal of
instability. The one thing lacking will be an upper trigger so
convection tomorrow may not be quite as widespread as expected
today, though the severe threat will certainly exist. Storms are
expected to move fast enough that the flash flood threat will be
isolated to a few cells exhibiting deviant motion; however, a
linear complex today could produce enough rainfall to increase a
more widespread flash flood threat Wednesday.

Southwest upper flow will continue through Thursday thanks to a
very slow moving low currently over southern California. This will
continue the thunderstorm threat into Tuesday before a cold front
arrives Wednesday providing a more stable boundary layer and a
transition to weaker convection. The low will move east of the
area Thursday night and northerly flow will end rain chances for
the end of the week and into the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  86  63  78 /  40  40  50  60
Carlsbad                       63  94  63  81 /  20  10  20  50
Dryden                         68  89  69  86 /  40  30  40  50
Fort Stockton                  67  91  67  84 /  30  30  40  50
Guadalupe Pass                 63  86  60  76 /  20  10  20  40
Hobbs                          61  88  60  76 /  20  20  40  50
Marfa                          55  85  55  80 /  30  20  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           67  90  66  80 /  30  30  40  50
Odessa                         67  90  66  80 /  30  30  40  50
Wink                           66  94  65  84 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/




000
FXUS64 KSJT 300509
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1209 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Thunderstorm outflow boundary will affect KSJT around 6Z with
gusty north winds up to 20 KTS. Storms should end for KABI behind
the storm complex 7-8Z, but have VCTS for most terminals later
tonight as the storm complex moves southeast and weakens. MVFR
stratus otherwise returns by morning over the terminals. Stratus
should rise to VFR around noon at KSJT and KABI but may stay in
much of the afternoon in southern terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Have VCTS at KABI beginning 2Z as an outflow boundary with
associated thunderstorms in NW Texas move southeast. Expected
storm development in the Permian Basin/TransPecos is delayed due
to thick mid/upper cloud cover. Due to uncertainty, kept mention
of thunder out of the rest of terminals. MVFR ceiling otherwise
return overnight and towards daybreak. MVFR ceiling should rise to
MVFR at KABI and KSJT around noon, but persist into mid afternoon
for areas farther south.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

This is basically your run of the mill Memorial Day forecast for
West Central TX. A shortwave trough is approaching West TX this
afternoon and its effects are readily apparent on the latest water
vapor loop. Large scale forcing for ascent will help erode what cap
remains, allowing the strong instability to be a factor. The latest
mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg across
much of the CWA, but effective bulk shear is only 25-35 kts. This is
sufficient to support organized convection, but shear is expected to
increase over the next several hours as the low-level jet kicks in.
There will be a non-zero tornado threat, but the primary hazards at
this time appear to be large hail and damaging winds, similar to
what was experienced yesterday.

The favored area for convective initiation will be over the far
western reaches of the CWA. However, storms will move east with time
and are expected to grown upscale into an MCS this evening. As this
MCS moves into the southern portion of the CWA, it is expected to
slow, turning into more of a heavy rainfall event. Precipitable
water values on the order of 1.5" and very slow moving convection
will result in locally heavy rainfall. Around 1" of rain is expected
on average across the northwest Hill Country, but localized amounts
of 3 inches are possible in some areas. The 1 hr flash flood
guidance for the area from Junction to Mason is less than 2 inches.
Thus a Flash Flood Watch has been issued through 10 AM Monday. This
covers areas along/south of a Sonora-Menard-Mason line.

Convection should continue to weaken/dissipate during the morning
hours on Monday with the loss of the low-level jet. This should
result in generally dry weather for much of the day tomorrow.
However, the air mass will be largely unchanged, with diurnal
convection once again in the forecast. The greatest chance for
showers and thunderstorms on Monday will be during the evening
hours, but low-end chance PoPs were retained to account for possible
earlier initiation along residual outflow boundaries. Temperatures
tomorrow are forecast to warm into the mid 80s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

.Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will continue
through the middle of the week...

An upper level low will be centered across Arizona late Monday,
putting West Central Texas in southwest flow aloft, with
intermittent disturbances tracking across the region. One of these
disturbances is forecast to move across the area late Monday. This
combined with daytime heating should allow for the development of
showers and thunderstorms across West Texas, near the dryline, which
will move across much of West Central Texas during the evening
hours. Similar to what is expected today, a very unstable atmosphere
is forecast, along with 0-6 KM Bulk Shear values of 30 to 40 knots.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with the main
hazards being large hail, damaging winds, and a possible tornado.
Overnight lows will mainly be in the mid to upper 60s.

The aforementioned upper level low will slowly approach West Central
Texas through the middle of the week. Rain chances will increase
Tuesday into Wednesday as the low gets closer and upper level lift
increases. In addition, a cold front will move through the area on
Wednesday, which may serve as a focus for additional shower and
thunderstorm development.

In addition to the severe weather threat through the next few days,
locally heavy rainfall will be possible. This may result in flash
flooding and a Flash Flood Watch for portions of the area may
eventually be needed. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches can be
expected, with isolated amounts above 4 inches possible.

High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will generally be in the mid
80s, with overnight lows in the 60s. Extensive cloud
cover/precipitation will result in highs on Wednesday in the low
80s. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front on Thursday,
with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows in
upper 50s to lower 60s.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  66  84  66  79 /  40  50  70  60
San Angelo  67  86  66  82 /  50  50  60  60
Junction  68  84  68  82 /  40  50  60  70

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for Kimble-Mason-
Menard-Sutton.

&&

$$

99/99/04




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