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000
FXUS64 KHGX 010050
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
750 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
A quick update to add some pops to the evening for the northern
areas well to the north of the seabreeze. Isolated SHRA/TSRA from
near CLL-UTS-JAS should continue for another hour then weaken.
Overnight skies should clear then may see some storms develop in
the coastal waters toward morning.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
A sea breeze boundary continues to push inland early this evening,
located in between IAH and HOU/SGR as of 0030Z. Expect this
boundary to make it as far north as IAH by 01Z before losing
definition after sunset. Also continuing to watch a few isolated
SHRA that have developed near CXO north of the sea breeze, some of
which may skirt the terminal before dissipating with loss of
daytime heating.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail (with brief drops to MVFR
possible at CXO and LBX from patchy fog) with light southeasterly
winds becoming established by mid morning Friday. A few isolated
SHRA/TSRA may be able to develop along the coast early Friday
morning before spreading inland along another sea breeze during
the late morning and afternoon hours. Given anticipated coverage,
will not include mention in southern terminals for now.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
A few showers and thunderstorms are continuing to drift near the
Matagorda County coast and out over the Gulf this afternoon. We
could still see isolated showers and thunderstorms a little further
inland later this afternoon or evening. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are forecast both Friday and Saturday, after which
time a ridge builds in overhead and suppresses any further
activity.

Dry conditions associated with the ridge will allow high
temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s each afternoon
through next Thursday. Heat index values are forecast to range
from the low to mid 100s through Sunday, increasing to the 100-110
degree range Monday through Thursday. 11

MARINE...
Low pressure taking shape in West Texas may allow light onshore flow
to develop briefly tonight, but with the pressure gradient still
light, nearshore waters should become variable or offshore towards
morning as the landbreeze sets up. Onshore flow should again
establish itself through the day Friday, gradually strengthening
through the weekend while veering a little to become more southerly.
The waters will remain relatively calm into the early weekend, but
increase through the weekend with the stronger wind field. By early
next week, nearshore waters look to reach into the 3-5 foot range,
while Gulf waters farther offshore may push a bit higher. Galveston
Bay should become slightly choppy early next week, while Matagorda
Bay may become choppy. The West Texas low does not look to make any
progress towards our area, and as upper ridging asserts itself,
precipitation chances will trend downwards for the next several
days. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  94  76  95  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              76  95  77  95  78 /  10  20  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            80  90  82  90  83 /  10  30  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45



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000
FXUS64 KBRO 010007
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
707 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Convection near KMFE will continue to die off in the
next hour. Otherwise...VFR and dry conditions are expected
through the period. Light and variable winds will turn SSE later
in the period with higher gusts expected due to an increasing
pressure gradient.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Now through Friday night):  Upper-level high pressure
currently centered over New Mexico will exert an increasingly
dominant effect over Deep South Texas over the next 36 hours as the
high  center migrates toward NE Texas.  Although isolated showers
and thunderstorms have formed early this afternoon along and just
behind the sea-breeze front, appears that overall the area is
already under the influence of subsidence and drying aloft on the
front side of the upper ridge.  Dewpoints have mixed out to about 70
degrees at BRO with temps rising to the mid-upper 90s.

Drying of the atmospheric column continues overnight as precipitable
waters values fall to 1.5-1.6" across most of the area.  Can`t
completely rule out an isolated shower for Friday afternoon but will
hold PoP`s to "silent" levels.  Afternoon temps in the Lower and Mid
Valley rise to the mid-upper 90`s...with 100-103F out west.  Heat
indices again in the 102-107 range across the CWA except at the
coast. Southeasterly breezes also pick up in the afternoon on
Friday.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday): Hot and dry conditions
will prevail across Deep South Texas through much of the forecast
period courtesy of an elongated 500mb ridge overhead with surface
high pressure over the Gulf. Rain chances will remain very low
through the long term period due to the large scale subsidence.
Temperatures will range from around 90 at the beaches, low to mid
90s across the lower Valley, and the upper 90s to several degrees
above the century mark across the upper Valley and the west each
afternoon. Afternoon heat index values will be in the 105 to 110
degree range, with a few locations reaching up to 113 degrees,
especially across Starr County. A heat advisory may be needed
across portions of the area this holiday weekend through mid week.
Breezy conditions will develop over the weekend as broad surface
high pressure across the eastern Gulf of Mexico interacts with
lower pressure over west Texas. Overnight low temperatures will be
in the upper 70s to around 80.

MARINE: (Now through Friday night): Buoy 42020 reporting light north
winds with seas less than 1 foot as 14 CDT/19 UTC.  More robust SE
winds become established by Friday afternoon as pressure-gradient
tightens some in response to surface troughing in the Front Range of
the Rockies.  SCEC conditions will be possible on the Laguna Madre
tomorrow afternoon and over the Gulf Waters Friday night.  Seas
gradually build back to 3 ft. by late Friday night.

Saturday through Tuesday...Moderate southeast winds and low to
moderate seas will prevail through Saturday night as broad high
pressure continues across the Gulf of Mexico. The gradient will
tighten on Sunday as high pressure over the Gulf interacts with
lower pressure across west Texas. This will result in increasing
winds and building seas along the lower Texas coast by Sunday night.
Small craft exercise caution to low end small craft advisory
conditions will be possible Sunday through Tuesday, especially on
the Laguna Madre each day.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

69



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000
FXUS64 KAMA 010005 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
705 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.Aviation...
For the 00Z TAFS...The short term concern for aviation will be winds
and locally heavy rainfall with thunderstorms moving slowly across
the Panhandles this evening. Winds may be variable with gusts up to
around 45 kts near the strongest storms. This round of storms should
be mostly east of the TAF sites by around 02Z to 03Z tonight, with at
least some chance for additional thunderstorms overnight. Given the
slow moving nature of these storms and scattered coverage, did not
include mention of thunderstorms in TAFs beyond 03Z at any site.
Amendments may be necessary if outflow from thunderstorms causes
significant wind shifts.

NF

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 430 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

Discussion...The main points of interest for this forecast package
are the continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms, as rain
chances will exist intermittently now through Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures will also begin to climb back up through the weekend and
early next week we can expect to start seeing high temperatures
nearing the century mark.

Short Term...This afternoon through Saturday night...Showers and
thunderstorms are currently forming and moving through portions of
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Storms have initiated in Armstrong
County and other portions of the south central Texas Panhandle. These
storms have pushed out an outflow boundary which is making its way
northwestward towards the cities of Amarillo and Canyon. This will
shift winds to a more southeasterly direction behind it, and enhance
the potential for scattered storms to form. Additionally, there are
some small showers and thunderstorms beginning to move in from New
Mexico and Colorado ahead of a lee surface trough to our west. These
storms are expected to continue for the remainder of the afternoon
and evening hours, however more organized convection is likely during
the overnight and early morning time period. Any of the stronger
storms that form during this time will be capable of producing
strong, gusty winds and small hail.

The best locations for the aforementioned organized convection
continues to be the northern portions of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles where frontogenesis associated with a surface trough is
strongest. This, coupled with ample moisture, northwesterly flow, and
isentropic ascent could allow for mesoscale convective system
formation overnight and into Friday morning. Precipitable water
values are around an inch to an inch and a quarter, which is
slightly higher than average. Therefore, any storms that develop and
hold together will have the possibility of producing heavy rainfall
that could lead to localized flooding.

Fairly weak northwesterly flow aloft will continue due to an area of
high pressure centered over New Mexico and the southwestern portions
of the Texas Panhandle. The ridge is expected to make its way
eastward and set up over the central portions of the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles. Once this feature transitions to our east, our flow
aloft will become more westerly. This is anticipated to occur by
Friday evening, and by Saturday Morning we should have returned to
northwest flow with yet another ridge building in from the west.
Meanwhile, at the surface a strengthening lee trough in the New
Mexico and Colorado area will increase chances for rain through the
weekend and eventually move through the combined Panhandles towards
the end of the day on Saturday.

Lorenzen

Long Term...Sunday through Wednesday night...Model guidance is in
good agreement that an upper level shortwave trough is progged to
move eastward across Kansas during the afternoon and evening hours.
A surface front will rapidly push through the area with northerly
winds of around 10 to 15 kts with slightly cooler air in it`s wake.
Precipitation chances around midday Sunday will be focused on the
southern and eastern portions of the combined Panhandles, with MLCAPE
around 1000 to 1500 J/kg in the moist airmass ahead of the frontal
boundary. Limited organization of convection may be possible ahead of
or along the frontal boundary, though bulk shear is limited. Dew
points ahead of the passing front will be in 60s, with PWV values
between 1.25 to 1.50 inches. This will present a threat for heavy
rainfall, with localized flooding should storms linger, in affected
areas on Sunday. Once the front clears the area, precipitation
chances will rapidly diminish afterwards. Late Sunday, a ridge of
high pressure will reorient itself but there is disagreement as to
whether the combined Panhandles will be under westerly or
northwesterly flow. Late Sunday into early Monday, guidance agrees
that return flow is progged with southerly winds returning to the
CWA. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with lows
Sunday night in the lower 60s northwest to lower 70s southeast.

On Independence Day, model guidance remains somewhat split on the
next possible shortwave trough to approach the combined Panhandles.
The ECMWF continues to show signs of a suppressed ridge with a more
southerly approach for this next system, while the GFS is the most
robust with ridge redevelopment and northwesterly flow.  The
difference is enough that there is uncertainty as to the extent and
possible magnitude of thunderstorm activity through Monday afternoon
and evening.  The most aggressive solution, the GFS, is suggesting
MLCAPE of around 1500-2500 J/kg with 0-6 km bulk shear approaching
35 to 45 kts.  Meanwhile, the ECMWF is much less agressive with
MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg with negligible wind shear.  Both are
suggestive of PWV values around 1.30 to 1.60 inches, which would
present the possibility of rain efficient thunderstorms.  For now,
have held with a slight chance of thunderstorms area wide until more
certainty can be determined Independence Day.  High temperatures on
the 4th of July are expected to be in the lower to mid 90s areawide,
with low temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning around the
lower 60s northwest to lower 70s southeast.

Tuesday through Thursday, the long range model guidance is showing
some agreement as to how the ridge of high pressure will reassert
itself over the region.  Both models show the ridge either centered
over the area or just to our northeast, which would place the region
under height increases and increasing warm air advection.  Given
positioning of the ridge, it will prove more difficult for
convection to occur in our area with H5 temperatures around -4 to -6
degrees Celsius.  Have opted to lower PoP chances next week, and
continue forecasted high temperatures for the area in the upper 90s
to around 101 degrees areawide.  Low temperatures should be in the
mid 60s to mid 70s each night late in the period.

Bieda

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/14




000
FXUS64 KAMA 010005 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
705 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.Aviation...
For the 00Z TAFS...The short term concern for aviation will be winds
and locally heavy rainfall with thunderstorms moving slowly across
the Panhandles this evening. Winds may be variable with gusts up to
around 45 kts near the strongest storms. This round of storms should
be mostly east of the TAF sites by around 02Z to 03Z tonight, with at
least some chance for additional thunderstorms overnight. Given the
slow moving nature of these storms and scattered coverage, did not
include mention of thunderstorms in TAFs beyond 03Z at any site.
Amendments may be necessary if outflow from thunderstorms causes
significant wind shifts.

NF

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 430 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

Discussion...The main points of interest for this forecast package
are the continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms, as rain
chances will exist intermittently now through Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures will also begin to climb back up through the weekend and
early next week we can expect to start seeing high temperatures
nearing the century mark.

Short Term...This afternoon through Saturday night...Showers and
thunderstorms are currently forming and moving through portions of
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Storms have initiated in Armstrong
County and other portions of the south central Texas Panhandle. These
storms have pushed out an outflow boundary which is making its way
northwestward towards the cities of Amarillo and Canyon. This will
shift winds to a more southeasterly direction behind it, and enhance
the potential for scattered storms to form. Additionally, there are
some small showers and thunderstorms beginning to move in from New
Mexico and Colorado ahead of a lee surface trough to our west. These
storms are expected to continue for the remainder of the afternoon
and evening hours, however more organized convection is likely during
the overnight and early morning time period. Any of the stronger
storms that form during this time will be capable of producing
strong, gusty winds and small hail.

The best locations for the aforementioned organized convection
continues to be the northern portions of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles where frontogenesis associated with a surface trough is
strongest. This, coupled with ample moisture, northwesterly flow, and
isentropic ascent could allow for mesoscale convective system
formation overnight and into Friday morning. Precipitable water
values are around an inch to an inch and a quarter, which is
slightly higher than average. Therefore, any storms that develop and
hold together will have the possibility of producing heavy rainfall
that could lead to localized flooding.

Fairly weak northwesterly flow aloft will continue due to an area of
high pressure centered over New Mexico and the southwestern portions
of the Texas Panhandle. The ridge is expected to make its way
eastward and set up over the central portions of the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles. Once this feature transitions to our east, our flow
aloft will become more westerly. This is anticipated to occur by
Friday evening, and by Saturday Morning we should have returned to
northwest flow with yet another ridge building in from the west.
Meanwhile, at the surface a strengthening lee trough in the New
Mexico and Colorado area will increase chances for rain through the
weekend and eventually move through the combined Panhandles towards
the end of the day on Saturday.

Lorenzen

Long Term...Sunday through Wednesday night...Model guidance is in
good agreement that an upper level shortwave trough is progged to
move eastward across Kansas during the afternoon and evening hours.
A surface front will rapidly push through the area with northerly
winds of around 10 to 15 kts with slightly cooler air in it`s wake.
Precipitation chances around midday Sunday will be focused on the
southern and eastern portions of the combined Panhandles, with MLCAPE
around 1000 to 1500 J/kg in the moist airmass ahead of the frontal
boundary. Limited organization of convection may be possible ahead of
or along the frontal boundary, though bulk shear is limited. Dew
points ahead of the passing front will be in 60s, with PWV values
between 1.25 to 1.50 inches. This will present a threat for heavy
rainfall, with localized flooding should storms linger, in affected
areas on Sunday. Once the front clears the area, precipitation
chances will rapidly diminish afterwards. Late Sunday, a ridge of
high pressure will reorient itself but there is disagreement as to
whether the combined Panhandles will be under westerly or
northwesterly flow. Late Sunday into early Monday, guidance agrees
that return flow is progged with southerly winds returning to the
CWA. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with lows
Sunday night in the lower 60s northwest to lower 70s southeast.

On Independence Day, model guidance remains somewhat split on the
next possible shortwave trough to approach the combined Panhandles.
The ECMWF continues to show signs of a suppressed ridge with a more
southerly approach for this next system, while the GFS is the most
robust with ridge redevelopment and northwesterly flow.  The
difference is enough that there is uncertainty as to the extent and
possible magnitude of thunderstorm activity through Monday afternoon
and evening.  The most aggressive solution, the GFS, is suggesting
MLCAPE of around 1500-2500 J/kg with 0-6 km bulk shear approaching
35 to 45 kts.  Meanwhile, the ECMWF is much less agressive with
MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg with negligible wind shear.  Both are
suggestive of PWV values around 1.30 to 1.60 inches, which would
present the possibility of rain efficient thunderstorms.  For now,
have held with a slight chance of thunderstorms area wide until more
certainty can be determined Independence Day.  High temperatures on
the 4th of July are expected to be in the lower to mid 90s areawide,
with low temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning around the
lower 60s northwest to lower 70s southeast.

Tuesday through Thursday, the long range model guidance is showing
some agreement as to how the ridge of high pressure will reassert
itself over the region.  Both models show the ridge either centered
over the area or just to our northeast, which would place the region
under height increases and increasing warm air advection.  Given
positioning of the ridge, it will prove more difficult for
convection to occur in our area with H5 temperatures around -4 to -6
degrees Celsius.  Have opted to lower PoP chances next week, and
continue forecasted high temperatures for the area in the upper 90s
to around 101 degrees areawide.  Low temperatures should be in the
mid 60s to mid 70s each night late in the period.

Bieda

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/14



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000
FXUS64 KEWX 010004
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
704 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION... /00z TAFs/

Some of the hi-res model solutions generate isolated convection
around SAT/SSF over the next couple hours, but satellite depiction
of cumulus shows increasing stability and convection more probable
to the distant SW. Easterly winds should be mainly below 12 knots
turning more to the S/SE late tonight. A few CIGs could possibly
develop at daybreak, but will expect low level moisture to be too
limited for organized areas of low ceilings for one more day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Another warm afternoon is ongoing with temperatures near
climatological normals. Temperatures are currently in the lower
to middle 90s with a decent cu field in place across the area.
A few showers developed just north of our CWA in the past couple
of hours and can`t rule out one or two stray showers in our area
later this afternoon. Chances are really too low to mention in
the official forecast at this time. Low temperatures tonight will
drop into the upper 60s across portions of the Hill Country and
into the lower to middle 70s elsewhere. For tomorrow, the sub-
tropical ridge axis will continue to push east and will be
anchored across the southern plains. This should allow for most,
if not all, the CWA to remain dry. Highs tomorrow will top out in
the middle 90s to near 100 degrees or about 1 to 2 degrees higher
than today. The warmer temps can also be expected for the area
Friday night with lows in the 70s across the entire region.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
For the long-term forecast, much of the same can be expected with
a rain-free forecast as the ridge continues to have a hold on
South-Central Texas weather. A weak trough is expected to pass
through the Central Plains to our north and the only effect we
will see is increasing southerly flow beginning Saturday and
lasting through Monday. This will allow for slightly higher dew
point values to creep into the area and could have a negative
impact with potential afternoon mixing of the boundary layer or
lack thereof. With slightly higher humidity values in the
afternoon hours, we should see heat indices rise into the 105-110
range for areas mainly east of the I-35 corridor beginning on
Sunday and lasting through the period. Will continue to highlight
this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and the Graphical 5 Day
Planner. High temperatures will also be a degree or two higher in
this period as well compared to today and tomorrow`s expected
maximum temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  96  75  97  77 /  -    0   0  -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  95  74  96  76 /  -   -    0  -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  95  74  97  76 /  -   -    0  -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            72  94  74  95  76 /  -    0   0  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  98  77  99  79 /  -    0   0  -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  95  75  95  78 /  -    0   0  -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             72  95  75  95  76 /  -    0   0  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  94  74  95  76 /  -   -    0  -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  94  75  96  77 /  -   10  -   10  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  94  76  94  78 /  -   -    0  -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           75  97  77  98  78 /  -   -    0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...24
Public Service/Data Collection...30




000
FXUS64 KHGX 302352
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
A sea breeze boundary continues to push inland early this evening,
located in between IAH and HOU/SGR as of 0030Z. Expect this
boundary to make it as far north as IAH by 01Z before losing
definition after sunset. Also continuing to watch a few isolated
SHRA that have developed near CXO north of the sea breeze, some of
which may skirt the terminal before dissipating with loss of
daytime heating.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail (with brief drops to MVFR
possible at CXO and LBX from patchy fog) with light southeasterly
winds becoming established by mid morning Friday. A few isolated
SHRA/TSRA may be able to develop along the coast early Friday
morning before spreading inland along another sea breeze during
the late morning and afternoon hours. Given anticipated coverage,
will not include mention in southern terminals for now.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
A few showers and thunderstorms are continuing to drift near the
Matagorda County coast and out over the Gulf this afternoon. We
could still see isolated showers and thunderstorms a little further
inland later this afternoon or evening. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are forecast both Friday and Saturday, after which
time a ridge builds in overhead and suppresses any further
activity.

Dry conditions associated with the ridge will allow high
temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s each afternoon
through next Thursday. Heat index values are forecast to range
from the low to mid 100s through Sunday, increasing to the 100-110
degree range Monday through Thursday. 11

MARINE...
Low pressure taking shape in West Texas may allow light onshore flow
to develop briefly tonight, but with the pressure gradient still
light, nearshore waters should become variable or offshore towards
morning as the landbreeze sets up. Onshore flow should again
establish itself through the day Friday, gradually strengthening
through the weekend while veering a little to become more southerly.
The waters will remain relatively calm into the early weekend, but
increase through the weekend with the stronger wind field. By early
next week, nearshore waters look to reach into the 3-5 foot range,
while Gulf waters farther offshore may push a bit higher. Galveston
Bay should become slightly choppy early next week, while Matagorda
Bay may become choppy. The West Texas low does not look to make any
progress towards our area, and as upper ridging asserts itself,
precipitation chances will trend downwards for the next several
days. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  94  76  95  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              76  95  77  95  78 /  10  20  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            80  90  82  90  83 /  10  30  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14



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000
FXUS64 KLUB 302334
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
634 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...

Convection once again this evening out of the TX Panhandle is
moving south. We also have scattered tstrms that have affected the
LLB site. As outflow boundaries are still prevalent and could fire
off more convection, left mention of VCTS for LBB for a little
while longer. PVW should be impacted for another hour or so. CDS
has avoided activity thus far. Activity seems to be dwindling with
loss of daytime heating, so will issue AMDs if needed should
storms restrengthen later tonight and begin to affect sites once
again.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Persistence seems to be a good bet with current weather pattern.
Models once again insist on a few storms developing across the north
and northeast zones...with activity moving south. Already seeing
initiation SE of KAMA as of 19z. This in area of higher moisture and
terrain assisted moisture convergence in area of weakening cap and
at least 1500 J/Kg Cape. Steering flow will allow this activity to
slowly propagate south into srn Panhandle and northern South Plains
between 21 and 02z. Kept low chance pops over this region. Much more
isolated elsewhere but cannot rule out through evening. Could see
some gusty winds with higher based storms especially in SW Panhandle
if activity can survive into that region.

Upper ridge builds directly overhead tonight, and then center shifts
just east of area by Friday afternoon. Decreasing flow aloft and
expected stronger cap/weak subsidence should preclude much coverage
at all Friday...although a few storms could sneak into the area
right along the New Mexico border late in the afternoon with
developing SW flow aloft on back side of upper ridge. Thus kept Pops
in slight chance category there. Temps could creep up a degree or
two with ridge overhead Friday and expected increased insolation. At
least mid 90s areawide with a few upper 90s eastern Rolling Plains.

LONG TERM...
An upper level trof will be pushing into the region Saturday as the
upper ridge moves off to the east. The trof should be able to tap
into some monsoonal moisture to increase precip chances Saturday
afternoon into Sunday. How much coverage and how much rain is to be
had is still in question as models continue to show the available
upper level moisture decreasing as the trof moves overhead. Given
how summer time convection has had not much of an issue forming
under a big ridge, the forecast will reflect higher end chances for
mainly our northern zones considering there will actually be some
upper level support for storm initialization. A front trailing
behind the trof could serve as another precip maker for Sunday. The
GFS isn`t too keen on precip forming hardly at all during the
weekend, but the ECMWF and CMC have been favoring precip especially
along the front. Convection would have somewhat of an influence on
temps for the weekend, but despite if they can lower temps by a few
degrees it will still be in the 90s and perfect for eating iced down
watermelon.

As it has been for the past several day, models diverge on the
forecast after Independence Day. The GFS build in a strong overhead
ridge while the ECMWF and CMC keep a flat ridge overhead. The flat
ridge has overall been favored in past model runs. The flatter ridge
would keep things just a bit cooler and also allow better chances
for rain as a few disturbances pushing through the main upper level
flow could have better influence across our area. Other than
disturbances in the main flow, various surface trofs progged by the
models could also be convective producers.
Aldrich

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/74




000
FXUS64 KLUB 302334
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
634 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...

Convection once again this evening out of the TX Panhandle is
moving south. We also have scattered tstrms that have affected the
LLB site. As outflow boundaries are still prevalent and could fire
off more convection, left mention of VCTS for LBB for a little
while longer. PVW should be impacted for another hour or so. CDS
has avoided activity thus far. Activity seems to be dwindling with
loss of daytime heating, so will issue AMDs if needed should
storms restrengthen later tonight and begin to affect sites once
again.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Persistence seems to be a good bet with current weather pattern.
Models once again insist on a few storms developing across the north
and northeast zones...with activity moving south. Already seeing
initiation SE of KAMA as of 19z. This in area of higher moisture and
terrain assisted moisture convergence in area of weakening cap and
at least 1500 J/Kg Cape. Steering flow will allow this activity to
slowly propagate south into srn Panhandle and northern South Plains
between 21 and 02z. Kept low chance pops over this region. Much more
isolated elsewhere but cannot rule out through evening. Could see
some gusty winds with higher based storms especially in SW Panhandle
if activity can survive into that region.

Upper ridge builds directly overhead tonight, and then center shifts
just east of area by Friday afternoon. Decreasing flow aloft and
expected stronger cap/weak subsidence should preclude much coverage
at all Friday...although a few storms could sneak into the area
right along the New Mexico border late in the afternoon with
developing SW flow aloft on back side of upper ridge. Thus kept Pops
in slight chance category there. Temps could creep up a degree or
two with ridge overhead Friday and expected increased insolation. At
least mid 90s areawide with a few upper 90s eastern Rolling Plains.

LONG TERM...
An upper level trof will be pushing into the region Saturday as the
upper ridge moves off to the east. The trof should be able to tap
into some monsoonal moisture to increase precip chances Saturday
afternoon into Sunday. How much coverage and how much rain is to be
had is still in question as models continue to show the available
upper level moisture decreasing as the trof moves overhead. Given
how summer time convection has had not much of an issue forming
under a big ridge, the forecast will reflect higher end chances for
mainly our northern zones considering there will actually be some
upper level support for storm initialization. A front trailing
behind the trof could serve as another precip maker for Sunday. The
GFS isn`t too keen on precip forming hardly at all during the
weekend, but the ECMWF and CMC have been favoring precip especially
along the front. Convection would have somewhat of an influence on
temps for the weekend, but despite if they can lower temps by a few
degrees it will still be in the 90s and perfect for eating iced down
watermelon.

As it has been for the past several day, models diverge on the
forecast after Independence Day. The GFS build in a strong overhead
ridge while the ECMWF and CMC keep a flat ridge overhead. The flat
ridge has overall been favored in past model runs. The flatter ridge
would keep things just a bit cooler and also allow better chances
for rain as a few disturbances pushing through the main upper level
flow could have better influence across our area. Other than
disturbances in the main flow, various surface trofs progged by the
models could also be convective producers.
Aldrich

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/74



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 302331
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
631 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to continue at all TAF sites through the forecast
period. Surface winds will oscillate between a southwesterly and
southeasterly direction, but for simplicity, will continue to
prevail a south-southeast wind in the TAFs with speeds expected
to remain under 10 kts.

One area of isolated convection has developed along a remnant
outflow boundary/confluence zone in Oklahoma, with another area
of isolated to scattered convection over the Texas Panhandle.
These storms should begin to nocturnally decay shortly after
sunset and are not expected to impact the airports outside of some
scattered to broken anvil blow off tonight.

Carlaw

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/
The main message for the upcoming holiday weekend and into next
week is continued hot with (mostly) dry conditions. There are
still low chances for rain Sunday afternoon through Monday but a
complete washout of outdoor activities is not expected. Heat
stress and heat illness and the threat of lightning will need to
be monitored by anyone outside this weekend.

The upper level ridge is currently centered to our west but will
slide southeast on Friday as a weak upper level trough, currently
over the Intermountain West, acts upon the ridge. A dry forecast
is expected through Saturday. However, will have to closely watch
for any possible remnant activity Friday morning approaching from
the north and/or northwest as the upper level flow will remain out
of the north. In addition, an isolated shower or storm cannot be
completely ruled out Friday afternoon in our far southeastern
counties. Low coverage and low confidence is not enough to warrant
more than a silent 10 PoP at this time.

On Saturday, the upper level trough will translate into the
Central Plains helping to push a front into the Southern Plains on
Sunday. There is decent agreement that convection will develop
near this front Saturday night into Sunday as the low level jet
increases to 30-40 kts. Some convection may occur ahead of the
front Sunday afternoon across Northwest Texas. Will carry low
chances for rain in our northwestern counties Sunday afternoon for
this possibility.

The convection along the front in Oklahoma will likely form into
a complex of storms that should move east and/or southeast. The
southern portions of this complex may graze our Red River counties
Sunday night into Monday morning. During this period, will
maintain 20-30 PoPs mainly north of Interstate 20. There is still
uncertainty if convection will be enough to push the front into
North Texas on Monday. For now, will keep south winds on Monday
and also keep low chances for rain across roughly the northern
half of the CWA. Any residual boundaries may also be enough to
spark isolated to scattered storms. Forecast soundings are not
supportive of a widespread severe weather threat if storms occur
on Monday but deep layer shear near 30 kts and CAPE values near
2000 J/kg is sufficient for some storm organization that may
support mainly a gusty wind threat. Brief heavy rain will also be
a threat.

After Monday, the heat continues to build with the upper level
ridge dominating the weather pattern and supporting a continued
dry pattern. By the middle of next week, most of North and Central
Texas is facing highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees with
heat index values nearing 105-107 degrees at times.

JLDunn

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  99  79  97  79 /   5  10  10   5   5
Waco                75  97  76  97  79 /   0  10  10   5   5
Paris               73  97  74  96  74 /  10  10  10   5   5
Denton              75  97  75  96  77 /   5  10  10   5   5
McKinney            74  96  75  95  77 /   5  10  10   5   5
Dallas              78  98  79  97  80 /   5  10  10   5   5
Terrell             74  96  75  96  76 /   5  10  10   5   5
Corsicana           75  98  76  96  77 /   5  10  10   5   5
Temple              74  97  74  96  76 /   0   5   5  10  10
Mineral Wells       73  97  73  97  75 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

90/05




000
FXUS64 KFWD 302331
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
631 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to continue at all TAF sites through the forecast
period. Surface winds will oscillate between a southwesterly and
southeasterly direction, but for simplicity, will continue to
prevail a south-southeast wind in the TAFs with speeds expected
to remain under 10 kts.

One area of isolated convection has developed along a remnant
outflow boundary/confluence zone in Oklahoma, with another area
of isolated to scattered convection over the Texas Panhandle.
These storms should begin to nocturnally decay shortly after
sunset and are not expected to impact the airports outside of some
scattered to broken anvil blow off tonight.

Carlaw

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/
The main message for the upcoming holiday weekend and into next
week is continued hot with (mostly) dry conditions. There are
still low chances for rain Sunday afternoon through Monday but a
complete washout of outdoor activities is not expected. Heat
stress and heat illness and the threat of lightning will need to
be monitored by anyone outside this weekend.

The upper level ridge is currently centered to our west but will
slide southeast on Friday as a weak upper level trough, currently
over the Intermountain West, acts upon the ridge. A dry forecast
is expected through Saturday. However, will have to closely watch
for any possible remnant activity Friday morning approaching from
the north and/or northwest as the upper level flow will remain out
of the north. In addition, an isolated shower or storm cannot be
completely ruled out Friday afternoon in our far southeastern
counties. Low coverage and low confidence is not enough to warrant
more than a silent 10 PoP at this time.

On Saturday, the upper level trough will translate into the
Central Plains helping to push a front into the Southern Plains on
Sunday. There is decent agreement that convection will develop
near this front Saturday night into Sunday as the low level jet
increases to 30-40 kts. Some convection may occur ahead of the
front Sunday afternoon across Northwest Texas. Will carry low
chances for rain in our northwestern counties Sunday afternoon for
this possibility.

The convection along the front in Oklahoma will likely form into
a complex of storms that should move east and/or southeast. The
southern portions of this complex may graze our Red River counties
Sunday night into Monday morning. During this period, will
maintain 20-30 PoPs mainly north of Interstate 20. There is still
uncertainty if convection will be enough to push the front into
North Texas on Monday. For now, will keep south winds on Monday
and also keep low chances for rain across roughly the northern
half of the CWA. Any residual boundaries may also be enough to
spark isolated to scattered storms. Forecast soundings are not
supportive of a widespread severe weather threat if storms occur
on Monday but deep layer shear near 30 kts and CAPE values near
2000 J/kg is sufficient for some storm organization that may
support mainly a gusty wind threat. Brief heavy rain will also be
a threat.

After Monday, the heat continues to build with the upper level
ridge dominating the weather pattern and supporting a continued
dry pattern. By the middle of next week, most of North and Central
Texas is facing highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees with
heat index values nearing 105-107 degrees at times.

JLDunn

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  99  79  97  79 /   5  10  10   5   5
Waco                75  97  76  97  79 /   0  10  10   5   5
Paris               73  97  74  96  74 /  10  10  10   5   5
Denton              75  97  75  96  77 /   5  10  10   5   5
McKinney            74  96  75  95  77 /   5  10  10   5   5
Dallas              78  98  79  97  80 /   5  10  10   5   5
Terrell             74  96  75  96  76 /   5  10  10   5   5
Corsicana           75  98  76  96  77 /   5  10  10   5   5
Temple              74  97  74  96  76 /   0   5   5  10  10
Mineral Wells       73  97  73  97  75 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

90/05



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KCRP 302328
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
628 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated shra/tsras will continue to diminish this evening with
little aviation impacts expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail through most of the TAF period. The exception will be
toward early Fri morning when a mix of stratus and light patchy
fog result in brief MVFR conditions, mainly ALI, VCT and to a
lesser degree, CRP. Isolated convection will be possible on Fri
across the VCT area, but will not mention in the TAF at this time
given the low probability.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 409 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...

Anticipate that current convection over portions of the CWA will
dissipate by 00z Friday. The NAM deterministic predicts a decrease
in moisture to near normal levels Friday over the ERN CWA. The
combination of moisture convergence along the dissipating boundary
may generate at least isolated convection Friday over the ERN
CWA/MSA. Expect the building upper ridge/additional drying/limited
or lack of surface forcing to preclude convection Friday Night.
Anticipate patchy fog early Friday morning over portions of the
interior CWA considering drying aloft/near surface moisture and
SREF VIS probabilities.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

..Dangerous Heat Conditions Expected Over 4th of July Weekend...

A hot, humid, and typical summer pattern develops across South Texas
during the long holiday weekend and through much of next week. High
pressure aloft will remain across the region over the weekend and
much of next week while a low develops across the Great Plains and
tracks eastward early next week.  An increasing low lvl jet will
develop and onshore flow will increase over the weekend.  Small
Craft Advisories may be needed with rising seas. Anticipate rising
temperatures with highs in the upper 90s across the inland coastal
counties and at or above 100 degrees across the plains and Brush
Country. Dangerous heat conditions are of concern especially during
the Sunday through Tuesday time frame. Higher dewpoints and high
temperatures will bring heat index values to reach or exceed 110
degrees across portions of the region over the weekend and early
next week. Widespread heat index values of 105 to 109 degrees can be
felt each day for much of the region as well. Will likely need Heat
Advisories for at least portions of the region during the long
holiday weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  92  78  94  79  /  10  20  10  10  10
Victoria          74  92  75  94  77  /  10  20  10  10  10
Laredo            77 100  78 103  80  /  10  10   0  10   0
Alice             74  96  75  97  77  /  10  10  10  10   0
Rockport          78  88  80  90  82  /  10  20  10  10  10
Cotulla           74  99  76 101  79  /  10   0   0  10   0
Kingsville        75  95  77  96  78  /  10  10  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       79  88  80  90  82  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 302315
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
615 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

The center of the upper ridge, which is currently over eastern New
Mexico, will migrate southeast across West Central Texas on Friday.
There is an outside chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm
through early this evening generally south of a San Saba to Ozona,
otherwise dry conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Low
temperatures tonight will mainly be in the lower 70s, with a few
upper 60s possible in the river valleys across southern counties.
High temperatures on Friday will be mainly in the lower and middle
90s.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Upper level high will be centered over the Southwest US for the
weekend, creating northwest flow across the area. Shortwave will
move across Central Plains on Sunday and Sunday Night, with
convection across Kansas and Oklahoma moving southeast across the
Red River. This may make it as far as the Big Country, reaching as
far south as I-20. Elsewhere, dry conditions should continue.

With recent rainfall over much of the area, MEX numbers showing
temperature at SJT as hot as 104 on Monday look too hot. Model
blend was cooler, keeping temperatures mainly in the upper 90s.
This is pretty close to what happened several weeks ago when
guidance temperatures after recent rainfall forecasted 100+ degree
marks that didn`t really happen. Will stick with highs in the
upper 90s for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  94  74  97 /   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  70  94  73  97 /   5   5   0   0
Junction  69  95  73  97 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KSJT 302315
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
615 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

The center of the upper ridge, which is currently over eastern New
Mexico, will migrate southeast across West Central Texas on Friday.
There is an outside chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm
through early this evening generally south of a San Saba to Ozona,
otherwise dry conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Low
temperatures tonight will mainly be in the lower 70s, with a few
upper 60s possible in the river valleys across southern counties.
High temperatures on Friday will be mainly in the lower and middle
90s.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Upper level high will be centered over the Southwest US for the
weekend, creating northwest flow across the area. Shortwave will
move across Central Plains on Sunday and Sunday Night, with
convection across Kansas and Oklahoma moving southeast across the
Red River. This may make it as far as the Big Country, reaching as
far south as I-20. Elsewhere, dry conditions should continue.

With recent rainfall over much of the area, MEX numbers showing
temperature at SJT as hot as 104 on Monday look too hot. Model
blend was cooler, keeping temperatures mainly in the upper 90s.
This is pretty close to what happened several weeks ago when
guidance temperatures after recent rainfall forecasted 100+ degree
marks that didn`t really happen. Will stick with highs in the
upper 90s for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  94  74  97 /   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  70  94  73  97 /   5   5   0   0
Junction  69  95  73  97 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

21



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMAF 302311
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
611 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will prevail
at all terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 203 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure centered across eastern New Mexico will
bring a mild and quiet night across west Texas and southeast New
Mexico.

This upper level high is expected to rapidly push east into east
Texas Friday and into the Gulf Coast states Saturday. This will
allow a weak upper level trough to translate across the Rockies
and into the southern Plains Saturday and Sunday. A surface lee
trough will form and strengthen in this flow across eastern New
Mexico Saturday. Strong heating combined with convergence along
the surface trough and approach of upper level trough will spark
thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico and the mountains on
east to the western Permian Basin Saturday. The chance for
thunderstorms will continue Sunday and shift eastward to also
include much of the Permian Basin as the upper level and surface
trough push further east across the southern Plains. Above
normal temperatures are expected with the developing surface
trough and low level thermal ridge this weekend.

The forecast for next Monday through Wednesday is problematic
at this time. The ECMWF model is indicating a continued slight
chance of thunderstorms daily across much of the area due to
upper level weakness parked over the forecast area. In contrast
the GFS model strengthens an upper level ridge over the region,
keeping much of the region dry. The ECMWF has been consistent run
to run with this precipitation so will retain superblends slight
pops these days. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist
next week with low level thermal ridging in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  95  73  95 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       68  95  71  98 /   0  10  30  20
Dryden                         74  97  74  97 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  71  95  72  99 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 67  87  67  90 /  10  10  40  30
Hobbs                          67  94  70  95 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          62  86  63  89 /  10  20  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           71  95  73  96 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         71  95  74  96 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                           72  98  76 100 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72




000
FXUS64 KAMA 302130
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
430 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.Discussion...The main points of interest for this forecast package
are the continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms, as rain
chances will exist intermittently now through Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures will also begin to climb back up through the weekend and
early next week we can expect to start seeing high temperatures
nearing the century mark.

&&

.Short Term...This afternoon through Saturday night...Showers and
thunderstorms are currently forming and moving through portions of
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Storms have initiated in Armstrong
County and other portions of the south central Texas Panhandle. These
storms have pushed out an outflow boundary which is making its way
northwestward towards the cities of Amarillo and Canyon. This will
shift winds to a more southeasterly direction behind it, and enhance
the potential for scattered storms to form. Additionally, there are
some small showers and thunderstorms beginning to move in from New
Mexico and Colorado ahead of a lee surface trough to our west. These
storms are expected to continue for the remainder of the afternoon
and evening hours, however more organized convection is likely during
the overnight and early morning time period. Any of the stronger
storms that form during this time will be capable of producing
strong, gusty winds and small hail.

The best locations for the aforementioned organized convection
continues to be the northern portions of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles where frontogenesis associated with a surface trough is
strongest. This, coupled with ample moisture, northwesterly flow, and
isentropic ascent could allow for mesoscale convective system
formation overnight and into Friday morning. Precipitable water
values are around an inch to an inch and a quarter, which is
slightly higher than average. Therefore, any storms that develop and
hold together will have the possibility of producing heavy rainfall
that could lead to localized flooding.

Fairly weak northwesterly flow aloft will continue due to an area of
high pressure centered over New Mexico and the southwestern portions
of the Texas Panhandle. The ridge is expected to make its way
eastward and set up over the central portions of the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles. Once this feature transitions to our east, our flow
aloft will become more westerly. This is anticipated to occur by
Friday evening, and by Saturday Morning we should have returned to
northwest flow with yet another ridge building in from the west.
Meanwhile, at the surface a strengthening lee trough in the New
Mexico and Colorado area will increase chances for rain through the
weekend and eventually move through the combined Panhandles towards
the end of the day on Saturday.

Lorenzen

&&

.Long Term...Sunday through Wednesday night...Model guidance is in
good agreement that an upper level shortwave trough is progged to
move eastward across Kansas during the afternoon and evening hours.
A surface front will rapidly push through the area with northerly
winds of around 10 to 15 kts with slightly cooler air in it`s wake.
Precipitation chances around midday Sunday will be focused on the
southern and eastern portions of the combined Panhandles, with MLCAPE
around 1000 to 1500 J/kg in the moist airmass ahead of the frontal
boundary. Limited organization of convection may be possible ahead of
or along the frontal boundary, though bulk shear is limited. Dew
points ahead of the passing front will be in 60s, with PWV values
between 1.25 to 1.50 inches. This will present a threat for heavy
rainfall, with localized flooding should storms linger, in affected
areas on Sunday. Once the front clears the area, precipitation
chances will rapidly diminish afterwards. Late Sunday, a ridge of
high pressure will reorient itself but there is disagreement as to
whether the combined Panhandles will be under westerly or
northwesterly flow. Late Sunday into early Monday, guidance agrees
that return flow is progged with southerly winds returning to the
CWA. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with lows
Sunday night in the lower 60s northwest to lower 70s southeast.

On Independence Day, model guidance remains somewhat split on the
next possible shortwave trough to approach the combined Panhandles.
The ECMWF continues to show signs of a suppressed ridge with a more
southerly approach for this next system, while the GFS is the most
robust with ridge redevelopment and northwesterly flow.  The
difference is enough that there is uncertainty as to the extent and
possible magnitude of thunderstorm activity through Monday afternoon
and evening.  The most aggressive solution, the GFS, is suggesting
MLCAPE of around 1500-2500 J/kg with 0-6 km bulk shear approaching
35 to 45 kts.  Meanwhile, the ECMWF is much less agressive with
MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg with negligible wind shear.  Both are
suggestive of PWV values around 1.30 to 1.60 inches, which would
present the possibility of rain efficient thunderstorms.  For now,
have held with a slight chance of thunderstorms area wide until more
certainty can be determined Independence Day.  High temperatures on
the 4th of July are expected to be in the lower to mid 90s areawide,
with low temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning around the
lower 60s northwest to lower 70s southeast.

Tuesday through Thursday, the long range model guidance is showing
some agreement as to how the ridge of high pressure will reassert
itself over the region.  Both models show the ridge either centered
over the area or just to our northeast, which would place the region
under height increases and increasing warm air advection.  Given
positioning of the ridge, it will prove more difficult for
convection to occur in our area with H5 temperatures around -4 to -6
degrees Celsius.  Have opted to lower PoP chances next week, and
continue forecasted high temperatures for the area in the upper 90s
to around 101 degrees areawide.  Low temperatures should be in the
mid 60s to mid 70s each night late in the period.

Bieda

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                67  92  68  92  65 /  20  10  10  30  40
Beaver OK                  66  90  68  90  63 /  50  40  40  40  60
Boise City OK              61  88  64  85  59 /  50  30  40  50  50
Borger TX                  71  94  73  93  68 /  20  10  20  40  50
Boys Ranch TX              66  93  70  92  64 /  20  10  20  40  40
Canyon TX                  66  94  68  93  64 /  10   5  10  30  30
Clarendon TX               67  91  68  91  67 /  10  10  10  30  30
Dalhart TX                 64  93  67  90  62 /  30  20  30  50  40
Guymon OK                  67  92  69  89  63 /  40  40  40  50  50
Hereford TX                67  94  69  94  65 /  10   5  10  40  30
Lipscomb TX                67  91  69  90  66 /  50  20  20  30  60
Pampa TX                   67  91  69  91  66 /  20  10  20  30  40
Shamrock TX                68  92  69  92  68 /  20  10  10  30  40
Wellington TX              69  93  69  95  70 /  10  10   5  20  40

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/98




000
FXUS64 KAMA 302130
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
430 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.Discussion...The main points of interest for this forecast package
are the continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms, as rain
chances will exist intermittently now through Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures will also begin to climb back up through the weekend and
early next week we can expect to start seeing high temperatures
nearing the century mark.

&&

.Short Term...This afternoon through Saturday night...Showers and
thunderstorms are currently forming and moving through portions of
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Storms have initiated in Armstrong
County and other portions of the south central Texas Panhandle. These
storms have pushed out an outflow boundary which is making its way
northwestward towards the cities of Amarillo and Canyon. This will
shift winds to a more southeasterly direction behind it, and enhance
the potential for scattered storms to form. Additionally, there are
some small showers and thunderstorms beginning to move in from New
Mexico and Colorado ahead of a lee surface trough to our west. These
storms are expected to continue for the remainder of the afternoon
and evening hours, however more organized convection is likely during
the overnight and early morning time period. Any of the stronger
storms that form during this time will be capable of producing
strong, gusty winds and small hail.

The best locations for the aforementioned organized convection
continues to be the northern portions of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles where frontogenesis associated with a surface trough is
strongest. This, coupled with ample moisture, northwesterly flow, and
isentropic ascent could allow for mesoscale convective system
formation overnight and into Friday morning. Precipitable water
values are around an inch to an inch and a quarter, which is
slightly higher than average. Therefore, any storms that develop and
hold together will have the possibility of producing heavy rainfall
that could lead to localized flooding.

Fairly weak northwesterly flow aloft will continue due to an area of
high pressure centered over New Mexico and the southwestern portions
of the Texas Panhandle. The ridge is expected to make its way
eastward and set up over the central portions of the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles. Once this feature transitions to our east, our flow
aloft will become more westerly. This is anticipated to occur by
Friday evening, and by Saturday Morning we should have returned to
northwest flow with yet another ridge building in from the west.
Meanwhile, at the surface a strengthening lee trough in the New
Mexico and Colorado area will increase chances for rain through the
weekend and eventually move through the combined Panhandles towards
the end of the day on Saturday.

Lorenzen

&&

.Long Term...Sunday through Wednesday night...Model guidance is in
good agreement that an upper level shortwave trough is progged to
move eastward across Kansas during the afternoon and evening hours.
A surface front will rapidly push through the area with northerly
winds of around 10 to 15 kts with slightly cooler air in it`s wake.
Precipitation chances around midday Sunday will be focused on the
southern and eastern portions of the combined Panhandles, with MLCAPE
around 1000 to 1500 J/kg in the moist airmass ahead of the frontal
boundary. Limited organization of convection may be possible ahead of
or along the frontal boundary, though bulk shear is limited. Dew
points ahead of the passing front will be in 60s, with PWV values
between 1.25 to 1.50 inches. This will present a threat for heavy
rainfall, with localized flooding should storms linger, in affected
areas on Sunday. Once the front clears the area, precipitation
chances will rapidly diminish afterwards. Late Sunday, a ridge of
high pressure will reorient itself but there is disagreement as to
whether the combined Panhandles will be under westerly or
northwesterly flow. Late Sunday into early Monday, guidance agrees
that return flow is progged with southerly winds returning to the
CWA. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with lows
Sunday night in the lower 60s northwest to lower 70s southeast.

On Independence Day, model guidance remains somewhat split on the
next possible shortwave trough to approach the combined Panhandles.
The ECMWF continues to show signs of a suppressed ridge with a more
southerly approach for this next system, while the GFS is the most
robust with ridge redevelopment and northwesterly flow.  The
difference is enough that there is uncertainty as to the extent and
possible magnitude of thunderstorm activity through Monday afternoon
and evening.  The most aggressive solution, the GFS, is suggesting
MLCAPE of around 1500-2500 J/kg with 0-6 km bulk shear approaching
35 to 45 kts.  Meanwhile, the ECMWF is much less agressive with
MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg with negligible wind shear.  Both are
suggestive of PWV values around 1.30 to 1.60 inches, which would
present the possibility of rain efficient thunderstorms.  For now,
have held with a slight chance of thunderstorms area wide until more
certainty can be determined Independence Day.  High temperatures on
the 4th of July are expected to be in the lower to mid 90s areawide,
with low temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning around the
lower 60s northwest to lower 70s southeast.

Tuesday through Thursday, the long range model guidance is showing
some agreement as to how the ridge of high pressure will reassert
itself over the region.  Both models show the ridge either centered
over the area or just to our northeast, which would place the region
under height increases and increasing warm air advection.  Given
positioning of the ridge, it will prove more difficult for
convection to occur in our area with H5 temperatures around -4 to -6
degrees Celsius.  Have opted to lower PoP chances next week, and
continue forecasted high temperatures for the area in the upper 90s
to around 101 degrees areawide.  Low temperatures should be in the
mid 60s to mid 70s each night late in the period.

Bieda

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                67  92  68  92  65 /  20  10  10  30  40
Beaver OK                  66  90  68  90  63 /  50  40  40  40  60
Boise City OK              61  88  64  85  59 /  50  30  40  50  50
Borger TX                  71  94  73  93  68 /  20  10  20  40  50
Boys Ranch TX              66  93  70  92  64 /  20  10  20  40  40
Canyon TX                  66  94  68  93  64 /  10   5  10  30  30
Clarendon TX               67  91  68  91  67 /  10  10  10  30  30
Dalhart TX                 64  93  67  90  62 /  30  20  30  50  40
Guymon OK                  67  92  69  89  63 /  40  40  40  50  50
Hereford TX                67  94  69  94  65 /  10   5  10  40  30
Lipscomb TX                67  91  69  90  66 /  50  20  20  30  60
Pampa TX                   67  91  69  91  66 /  20  10  20  30  40
Shamrock TX                68  92  69  92  68 /  20  10  10  30  40
Wellington TX              69  93  69  95  70 /  10  10   5  20  40

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/98




000
FXUS64 KCRP 302109
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
409 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...

Anticipate that current convection over portions of the CWA will
dissipate by 00z Friday. The NAM deterministic predicts a decrease
in moisture to near normal levels Friday over the ERN CWA. The
combination of moisture convergence along the dissipating boundary
may generate at least isolated convection Friday over the ERN
CWA/MSA. Expect the building upper ridge/additional drying/limited
or lack of surface forcing to preclude convection Friday Night.
Anticipate patchy fog early Friday morning over portions of the
interior CWA considering drying aloft/near surface moisture and
SREF VIS probabilities.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

...Dangerous Heat Conditions Expected Over 4th of July Weekend...

A hot, humid, and typical summer pattern develops across South Texas
during the long holiday weekend and through much of next week. High
pressure aloft will remain across the region over the weekend and
much of next week while a low develops across the Great Plains and
tracks eastward early next week.  An increasing low lvl jet will
develop and onshore flow will increase over the weekend.  Small
Craft Advisories may be needed with rising seas. Anticipate rising
temperatures with highs in the upper 90s across the inland coastal
counties and at or above 100 degrees across the plains and Brush
Country. Dangerous heat conditions are of concern especially during
the Sunday through Tuesday time frame. Higher dewpoints and high
temperatures will bring heat index values to reach or exceed 110
degrees across portions of the region over the weekend and early
next week. Widespread heat index values of 105 to 109 degrees can be
felt each day for much of the region as well. Will likely need Heat
Advisories for at least portions of the region during the long
holiday weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  92  78  94  79  /  10  20  10  10  10
Victoria          74  92  75  94  77  /  10  20  10  10  10
Laredo            77 100  78 103  80  /  10  10   0  10   0
Alice             74  96  75  97  77  /  10  10  10  10   0
Rockport          78  88  80  90  82  /  10  20  10  10  10
Cotulla           74  99  76 101  79  /  10   0   0  10   0
Kingsville        75  95  77  96  78  /  10  10  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       79  88  80  90  82  /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302104
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
304 PM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will be on the increase Friday as a weak upper
disturbance approaches from the west. Thunderstorms will become
more numerous, especially Friday evening with locally heavy
rainfall possible. On Saturday the disturbance will be moving on
and thunderstorms will decrease in number. An upper ridge will
strengthen over the area Sunday and bring back hot temperatures
with only isolated storms next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moisture plume over AZ extends into far western NM where most of
the storms are popping this afternoon. On Friday a weak upper low
which has been sitting over Sonora will open up and move
northeastward across NM, with thunderstorm coverage increasing
from west to east. PW amounts should be near 1.5" by the evening
hours so locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding along with wet
microbursts are possible. This is our grand opportunity for
substantial rainfall, though not all locations will cash in.
Saturday will be a transition day in the wake of the trough and
before the upper ridge re-establishes itself over the desert
southwest, so storms will still be possible but decreasing from
west to east.

The upper ridge will be back by Sunday which will send our temps
above normal. Residual moisture trapped underneath along with hot
temps will attempt to overcome warming aloft, sort of like a week
or so ago. Thus storms will not be absent, just harder to come by
except possibly in the mountains. It will be interesting to see
the effects of this drier and hotter spell on fire danger
concerns, though it should not return to the levels of a week ago.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 01/00Z-02/00Z.
P6SM with FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250 thru pd. There will be isold
to sct VRB25G35KT 1-3SM TSRA BKN030-040 mainly west of divide
through 06Z and after 15Z across the region spreading from west to
east. Winds generally SE 5-10 KTS becoming more S to SW aft 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper ridge over the area is keeping moisture in Arizona and far
western New Mexico for remainder of this afternoon and tonight. The
ridge will weaken over the next day as upper trough moves through
four corners region and will bring best chance for showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow across the area. Good moisture will be in
place and locally heavy rain will be the main threat. Thunderstorm
activity will start to decrease Saturday and continue into early
next week as ridge becomes reestablished with mainly mountain
thunderstorms expected. Besides some below normal temperatures
Friday...expect temperatures to be at or above normal through the
remainder of the period with an increase in moisture toward the
middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 73  91  72  94 /   0  40  50  30
Sierra Blanca           68  89  67  90 /   0  20  60  30
Las Cruces              68  88  67  92 /   0  60  50  30
Alamogordo              69  90  69  93 /  10  50  50  40
Cloudcroft              53  69  53  71 /  30  70  90  60
Truth or Consequences   68  87  66  91 /  10  50  50  30
Silver City             62  79  61  84 /  40  70  40  40
Deming                  68  85  66  91 /  30  60  40  30
Lordsburg               66  85  65  90 /  40  70  30  30
West El Paso Metro      74  91  72  94 /   0  40  50  30
Dell City               67  93  67  95 /   0  10  60  30
Fort Hancock            72  93  71  95 /   0  30  50  20
Loma Linda              67  86  66  88 /   0  40  60  30
Fabens                  71  92  70  95 /   0  40  50  30
Santa Teresa            70  90  69  93 /   0  60  50  30
White Sands HQ          71  88  70  91 /   0  40  50  30
Jornada Range           66  87  65  91 /   0  60  50  30
Hatch                   68  89  66  94 /   0  60  50  30
Columbus                69  87  68  92 /  30  60  50  30
Orogrande               70  90  70  92 /   0  40  50  30
Mayhill                 56  77  55  80 /  20  50  80  60
Mescalero               55  77  55  81 /  30  60  80  60
Timberon                53  75  54  78 /  20  50  80  60
Winston                 56  78  55  82 /  30  70  60  60
Hillsboro               64  84  62  89 /  20  70  50  40
Spaceport               67  86  65  91 /   0  60  50  30
Lake Roberts            53  81  53  86 /  40  80  50  60
Hurley                  62  80  61  86 /  40  70  40  40
Cliff                   57  84  57  89 /  50  70  50  40
Mule Creek              53  82  54  87 /  60  70  50  40
Faywood                 62  82  61  88 /  30  70  40  40
Animas                  66  85  64  91 /  40  70  40  30
Hachita                 65  84  65  91 /  40  70  40  30
Antelope Wells          64  83  63  88 /  40  60  50  30
Cloverdale              62  78  62  84 /  40  70  40  40

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

01 Fausett/ 26 Grzywacz




000
FXUS64 KSJT 302038
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
338 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

The center of the upper ridge, which is currently over eastern New
Mexico, will migrate southeast across West Central Texas on Friday.
There is an outside chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm
through early this evening generally south of a San Saba to Ozona,
otherwise dry conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Low
temperatures tonight will mainly be in the lower 70s, with a few
upper 60s possible in the river valleys across southern counties.
High temperatures on Friday will be mainly in the lower and middle
90s.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Upper level high will be centered over the Southwest US for the
weekend, creating northwest flow across the area. Shortwave will
move across Central Plains on Sunday and Sunday Night, with
convection across Kansas and Oklahoma moving southeast across the
Red River. This may make it as far as the Big Country, reaching as
far south as I-20. Elsewhere, dry conditions should continue.

With recent rainfall over much of the area, MEX numbers showing
temperature at SJT as hot as 104 on Monday look too hot. Model
blend was cooler, keeping temperatures mainly in the upper 90s.
This is pretty close to what happened several weeks ago when
guidance temperatures after recent rainfall forecasted 100+ degree
marks that didn`t really happen. Will stick with highs in the
upper 90s for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  94  74  97 /   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  70  94  73  97 /   5   5   0   0
Junction  69  95  73  97 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

24/07




000
FXUS64 KFWD 302024
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
324 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The main message for the upcoming holiday weekend and into next
week is continued hot with (mostly) dry conditions. There are
still low chances for rain Sunday afternoon through Monday but a
complete washout of outdoor activities is not expected. Heat
stress and heat illness and the threat of lightning will need to
be monitored by anyone outside this weekend.

The upper level ridge is currently centered to our west but will
slide southeast on Friday as a weak upper level trough, currently
over the Intermountain West, acts upon the ridge. A dry forecast
is expected through Saturday. However, will have to closely watch
for any possible remnant activity Friday morning approaching from
the north and/or northwest as the upper level flow will remain out
of the north. In addition, an isolated shower or storm cannot be
completely ruled out Friday afternoon in our far southeastern
counties. Low coverage and low confidence is not enough to warrant
more than a silent 10 PoP at this time.

On Saturday, the upper level trough will translate into the
Central Plains helping to push a front into the Southern Plains on
Sunday. There is decent agreement that convection will develop
near this front Saturday night into Sunday as the low level jet
increases to 30-40 kts. Some convection may occur ahead of the
front Sunday afternoon across Northwest Texas. Will carry low
chances for rain in our northwestern counties Sunday afternoon for
this possibility.

The convection along the front in Oklahoma will likely form into
a complex of storms that should move east and/or southeast. The
southern portions of this complex may graze our Red River counties
Sunday night into Monday morning. During this period, will
maintain 20-30 PoPs mainly north of Interstate 20. There is still
uncertainty if convection will be enough to push the front into
North Texas on Monday. For now, will keep south winds on Monday
and also keep low chances for rain across roughly the northern
half of the CWA. Any residual boundaries may also be enough to
spark isolated to scattered storms. Forecast soundings are not
supportive of a widespread severe weather threat if storms occur
on Monday but deep layer shear near 30 kts and CAPE values near
2000 J/kg is sufficient for some storm organization that may
support mainly a gusty wind threat. Brief heavy rain will also be
a threat.

After Monday, the heat continues to build with the upper level
ridge dominating the weather pattern and supporting a continued
dry pattern. By the middle of next week, most of North and Central
Texas is facing highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees with
heat index values nearing 105-107 degrees at times.

JLDunn

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1242 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/
VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through 00z Saturday
as an upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather across
the region. There will be some mostly thin high clouds and some
scattered late morning through afternoon cumulus. South southwest
winds at 7 to 10 knots at TAF issuance time will back to the
southeast 22-23z and veer to the south after 06z and south
southwest by 15z Friday. Since these winds are not operationally
significant, have not shown the wind direction changes in the
TAFS.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  99  79  97  79 /   5  10  10   5   5
Waco                75  97  76  97  79 /   0  10  10   5   5
Paris               73  97  74  96  74 /  10  10  10   5   5
Denton              75  97  75  96  77 /   5  10  10   5   5
McKinney            74  96  75  95  77 /   5  10  10   5   5
Dallas              78  98  79  97  80 /   5  10  10   5   5
Terrell             74  96  75  96  76 /   5  10  10   5   5
Corsicana           75  98  76  96  77 /   5  10  10   5   5
Temple              74  97  74  96  76 /   0   5   5  10  10
Mineral Wells       73  97  73  97  75 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

58/82




000
FXUS64 KHGX 302007
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
307 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers and thunderstorms are continuing to drift near the
Matagorda County coast and out over the Gulf this afternoon. We
could still see isolated showers and thunderstorms a little further
inland later this afternoon or evening. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are forecast both Friday and Saturday, after which
time a ridge builds in overhead and suppresses any further
activity.

Dry conditions associated with the ridge will allow high
temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s each afternoon
through next Thursday. Heat index values are forecast to range
from the low to mid 100s through Sunday, increasing to the 100-110
degree range Monday through Thursday. 11

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure taking shape in West Texas may allow light onshore flow
to develop briefly tonight, but with the pressure gradient still
light, nearshore waters should become variable or offshore towards
morning as the landbreeze sets up. Onshore flow should again
establish itself through the day Friday, gradually strengthening
through the weekend while veering a little to become more southerly.
The waters will remain relatively calm into the early weekend, but
increase through the weekend with the stronger wind field. By early
next week, nearshore waters look to reach into the 3-5 foot range,
while Gulf waters farther offshore may push a bit higher. Galveston
Bay should become slightly choppy early next week, while Matagorda
Bay may become choppy. The West Texas low does not look to make any
progress towards our area, and as upper ridging asserts itself,
precipitation chances will trend downwards for the next several
days. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  94  76  95  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              76  95  77  95  78 /  10  20  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            80  90  82  90  83 /  10  30  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...25




000
FXUS64 KLUB 302002
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
302 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Persistence seems to be a good bet with current weather pattern.
Models once again insist on a few storms developing across the north
and northeast zones...with activity moving south. Already seeing
initiation SE of KAMA as of 19z. This in area of higher moisture and
terrain assisted moisture convergence in area of weakening cap and
at least 1500 J/Kg Cape. Steering flow will allow this activity to
slowly propagate south into srn Panhandle and northern South Plains
between 21 and 02z. Kept low chance pops over this region. Much more
isolated elsewhere but cannot rule out through evening. Could see
some gusty winds with higher based storms especially in SW Panhandle
if activity can survive into that region.

Upper ridge builds directly overhead tonight, and then center shifts
just east of area by Friday afternoon. Decreasing flow aloft and
expected stronger cap/weak subsidence should preclude much coverage
at all Friday...although a few storms could sneak into the area
right along the New Mexico border late in the afternoon with
developing SW flow aloft on back side of upper ridge. Thus kept Pops
in slight chance category there. Temps could creep up a degree or
two with ridge overhead Friday and expected increased insolation. At
least mid 90s areawide with a few upper 90s eastern Rolling Plains.

.LONG TERM...
An upper level trof will be pushing into the region Saturday as the
upper ridge moves off to the east. The trof should be able to tap
into some monsoonal moisture to increase precip chances Saturday
afternoon into Sunday. How much coverage and how much rain is to be
had is still in question as models continue to show the available
upper level moisture decreasing as the trof moves overhead. Given
how summer time convection has had not much of an issue forming
under a big ridge, the forecast will reflect higher end chances for
mainly our northern zones considering there will actually be some
upper level support for storm initialization. A front trailing
behind the trof could serve as another precip maker for Sunday. The
GFS isn`t too keen on precip forming hardly at all during the
weekend, but the ECMWF and CMC have been favoring precip especially
along the front. Convection would have somewhat of an influence on
temps for the weekend, but despite if they can lower temps by a few
degrees it will still be in the 90s and perfect for eating iced down
watermelon.

As it has been for the past several day, models diverge on the
forecast after Independence Day. The GFS build in a strong overhead
ridge while the ECMWF and CMC keep a flat ridge overhead. The flat
ridge has overall been favored in past model runs. The flatter ridge
would keep things just a bit cooler and also allow better chances
for rain as a few disturbances pushing through the main upper level
flow could have better influence across our area. Other than
disturbances in the main flow, various surface trofs progged by the
models could also be convective producers.
Aldrich

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

06/51




000
FXUS64 KBRO 301950
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
250 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday night):  Upper-level high pressure
currently centered over New Mexico will exert an increasingly
dominant effect over Deep South Texas over the next 36 hours as the
high  center migrates toward NE Texas.  Although isolated showers
and thunderstorms have formed early this afternoon along and just
behind the sea-breeze front, appears that overall the area is
already under the influence of subsidence and drying aloft on the
front side of the upper ridge.  Dewpoints have mixed out to about 70
degrees at BRO with temps rising to the mid-upper 90s.

Drying of the atmospheric column continues overnight as precipitable
waters values fall to 1.5-1.6" across most of the area.  Can`t
completely rule out an isolated shower for Friday afternoon but will
hold PoP`s to "silent" levels.  Afternoon temps in the Lower and Mid
Valley rise to the mid-upper 90`s...with 100-103F out west.  Heat
indices again in the 102-107 range across the CWA except at the
coast. Southeasterly breezes also pick up in the afternoon on
Friday.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday): Hot and dry conditions
will prevail across Deep South Texas through much of the forecast
period courtesy of an elongated 500mb ridge overhead with surface
high pressure over the Gulf. Rain chances will remain very low
through the long term period due to the large scale subsidence.
Temperatures will range from around 90 at the beaches, low to mid
90s across the lower Valley, and the upper 90s to several degrees
above the century mark across the upper Valley and the west each
afternoon. Afternoon heat index values will be in the 105 to 110
degree range, with a few locations reaching up to 113 degrees,
especially across Starr County. A heat advisory may be needed
across portions of the area this holiday weekend through mid week.
Breezy conditions will develop over the weekend as broad surface
high pressure across the eastern Gulf of Mexico interacts with
lower pressure over west Texas. Overnight low temperatures will be
in the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.MARINE: (Now through Friday night): Buoy 42020 reporting light north
winds with seas less than 1 foot as 14 CDT/19 UTC.  More robust SE
winds become established by Friday afternoon as pressure-gradient
tightens some in response to surface troughing in the Front Range of
the Rockies.  SCEC conditions will be possible on the Laguna Madre
tomorrow afternoon and over the Gulf Waters Friday night.  Seas
gradually build back to 3 ft. by late Friday night.

Saturday through Tuesday...Moderate southeast winds and low to
moderate seas will prevail through Saturday night as broad high
pressure continues across the Gulf of Mexico. The gradient will
tighten on Sunday as high pressure over the Gulf interacts with
lower pressure across west Texas. This will result in increasing
winds and building seas along the lower Texas coast by Sunday night.
Small craft exercise caution to low end small craft advisory
conditions will be possible Sunday through Tuesday, especially on
the Laguna Madre each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  93  80  94 /  10  10   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          79  95  79  95 /  10  10   0  10
HARLINGEN            78  97  78  98 /  10  10   0  10
MCALLEN              78  99  78  99 /  10  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 102  79 103 /  10  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  89  81  89 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

53/63/58




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301941
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
241 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Another warm afternoon is ongoing with temperatures near
climatological normals. Temperatures are currently in the lower
to middle 90s with a decent cu field in place across the area.
A few showers developed just north of our CWA in the past couple
of hours and can`t rule out one or two stray showers in our area
later this afternoon. Chances are really too low to mention in
the official forecast at this time. Low temperatures tonight will
drop into the upper 60s across portions of the Hill Country and
into the lower to middle 70s elsewhere. For tomorrow, the sub-
tropical ridge axis will continue to push east and will be
anchored across the southern plains. This should allow for most,
if not all, the CWA to remain dry. Highs tomorrow will top out in
the middle 90s to near 100 degrees or about 1 to 2 degrees higher
than today. The warmer temps can also be expected for the area
Friday night with lows in the 70s across the entire region.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
For the long-term forecast, much of the same can be expected with
a rain-free forecast as the ridge continues to have a hold on
South-Central Texas weather. A weak trough is expected to pass
through the Central Plains to our north and the only effect we
will see is increasing southerly flow beginning Saturday and
lasting through Monday. This will allow for slightly higher dew
point values to creep into the area and could have a negative
impact with potential afternoon mixing of the boundary layer or
lack thereof. With slightly higher humidity values in the
afternoon hours, we should see heat indices rise into the 105-110
range for areas mainly east of the I-35 corridor beginning on
Sunday and lasting through the period. Will continue to highlight
this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and the Graphical 5 Day
Planner. High temperatures will also be a degree or two higher in
this period as well compared to today and tomorrow`s expected
maximum temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  96  75  97  77 /  -    0   0  -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  95  74  96  76 /  -   -    0  -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  95  74  97  76 /  -   -    0  -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            72  94  74  95  76 /  -    0   0  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  98  77  99  79 /  -    0   0  -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  95  75  95  78 /  -    0   0  -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             72  95  75  95  76 /  -    0   0  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  94  74  95  76 /  -   -    0  -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  94  75  96  77 /  -   10  -   10  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  94  76  94  78 /  -   -    0  -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           75  97  77  98  78 /  -   -    0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...10
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams




000
FXUS64 KMAF 301903
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
203 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure centered across eastern New Mexico will
bring a mild and quiet night across west Texas and southeast New
Mexico.

This upper level high is expected to rapidly push east into east
Texas Friday and into the Gulf Coast states Saturday. This will
allow a weak upper level trough to translate across the Rockies
and into the southern Plains Saturday and Sunday. A surface lee
trough will form and strengthen in this flow across eastern New
Mexico Saturday. Strong heating combined with convergence along
the surface trough and approach of upper level trough will spark
thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico and the mountains on
east to the western Permian Basin Saturday. The chance for
thunderstorms will continue Sunday and shift eastward to also
include much of the Permian Basin as the upper level and surface
trough push further east across the southern Plains. Above
normal temperatures are expected with the developing surface
trough and low level thermal ridge this weekend.

The forecast for next Monday through Wednesday is problematic
at this time. The ECMWF model is indicating a continued slight
chance of thunderstorms daily across much of the area due to
upper level weakness parked over the forecast area. In contrast
the GFS model strengthens an upper level ridge over the region,
keeping much of the region dry. The ECMWF has been consistent run
to run with this precipitation so will retain superblends slight
pops these days. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist
next week with low level thermal ridging in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  95  73  95 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       68  95  71  98 /   0  10  30  20
Dryden                         74  97  74  97 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  71  95  72  99 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 67  87  67  90 /  10  10  40  30
Hobbs                          67  94  70  95 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          62  86  63  89 /  10  20  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           71  95  73  96 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         71  95  74  96 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                           72  98  76 100 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/12




000
FXUS64 KCRP 301822
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
122 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Note Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Predominate VFR conditions expected during the TAF
period. Exceptions include brief MVFR conditions near isolated
showers/thunderstorms later this afternoon/early evening...
and brief MVFR visibilities west of U.S. 77 and east of U.S. 281
during the 08-13z Friday period. Predominately light wind during
the period.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 648 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Update for 12Z aviation cycle.

AVIATION...

Not much change from the previous taf thinking.

Today...VFR. Expecting even less coverage in afternoon showers and
thunder than we experienced on Wednesday but the potential still
exists so we continue with the VCSH through the late afternoon
hours. Winds remain mostly out of the southeast before backing slightly
to the east later this evening. Medium to high confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Shower activity should be offshore and fog should
remain isolated, mostly near KVCT. A light offshore land-breeze
may develop around KCRP/KALI late tonight but overall winds will
remain very light. Medium to high confidence.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

Another morning another weak surface trough extending from portions
of South Texas eastward across the Gulf waters towards LA. More
scattered convection has developed along this boundary over the Gulf
waters though not nearly as vigorous as we saw 24 hours ago. Still
carry chance PoPs across the coastal waters and portions of the
Coastal Bend later this morning spreading into the mid-afternoon
hours. Highest MLCAPE values are progged to be around 2500 j/kg
along the coast and immediate inland areas so the seabreeze boundary
could be more active today than days past. With very weak flow aloft
any storms will be slow to move and could drop a decent amount of
rain quickly before becoming outflow dominant. The outflows will
lead to potentially more convection inland with the help of the weak
surface trough as it slides ever so slightly southward. Heat index
values will once again be around 105 to 109 degrees across much the
region with possibly excluding Victoria Crossroads where more cloud
cover and slightly cooler temperatures will be.

Somewhat drier air works into the region from the north-northwest on
Friday as both surface and mid-level ridging move closer. We
continue to confine our PoPs across the northern Coastal Bend where
the higher moisture axis will remain. Again expecting another weak
surface trough to be across the region combining with seabreeze
interactions to develop mostly late morning and afternoon
convection.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...

.Dangerous Heat Conditions Expected Over 4th of July Weekend...

Little change of significance was made to the extended forecast
tonight. Elongated and strong subtropical ridge will greatly
influence South Texas weather over the weekend and into next week
with hot and dry conditions prevailing. An increase in overall
thermal profile will preclude much /if any/ precip from developing.
Best chances /very low at that/ may be a few nocturnal showers along
the immediate coast over the weekend. Biggest weather concern will
be the increase in heat and humidity across the region. Afternoon
highs nearly each day will be in the upper 90s across the inland
Coastal Plains and greater than 100 degrees across the Brush
Country. Add in some higher dewpoints than what we have had most of
this week and heat indices should reach/exceed 110 degrees across
portions of the region for a period of several days. Of interest is
an unseasonably strong southerly LLJ that is prog to develop over
the weekend and early next week as cyclogenesis occurs across the
Plains. This should result in breezy/windy conditions each day...but
also delay the passage of the seabreeze...which in turn will allow
for hotter temps to materialize. Overall...confidence is increasing
in Heat Advisories needing to be issued for portions of the region
at some point over the Holiday Weekend. Currently...Sunday through
Wednesday are forecast to be the hottest and most humid days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  95  78  97  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
Victoria          74  95  76  95  79  /  10  20  10  10  10
Laredo            78 102  80 103  81  /  10   0   0   0   0
Alice             74  98  76  99  79  /  10  10  10  10   0
Rockport          79  93  80  93  83  /  10  20  10  10  10
Cotulla           76 101  76 102  79  /  10   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        75  96  78  98  79  /  10  10  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       79  91  80  92  82  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KBRO 301807 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
107 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Kept trend of previous TAF package intact but added
mention of VCSH for BRO and HRL through 22Z as isolated showers
(no lightning yet) have begun to form along and behind the sea-
breeze front. Not confident at this time that these will survive
to reach MFE later so have omitted there. VFR to prevail through
the period at all terminals with only FEW lower clouds overnight.
Breezy S-SE winds developing mid-late morning on Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Only minor adjustments to the previous suite of TAFS.
Light to moderate winds and few clouds will greet pilots at the
aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Convection is expected for
the daylight hours of the forecast period, but will remain too
isolated in coverage to necessitate inclusion in the TAFS at this
time. Overall, VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): A deep 500 mb trough over the
eastern United States will remain extended into the western Gulf of
Mexico today and tonight. Coupled with deep tropical moisture,
featuring precipitable water values near 2 inches, another round of
isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for the BRO CWFA
today, with streamer activity over the Lower Texas coastal waters
tonight. The shifting of the mid-level trough into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, and 500 mb high pressure becoming centered over Texas,
will usher in dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley on Friday. Well above normal temperatures are anticipated
through the period. In fact, inherited daytime highs were retained
while overnight lows for tonight appeared too cool and were
increased a few degrees.

Long Term (Friday night through Wednesday): Mid level ridging
(592 dam) will set up over the Gulf and Texas initially,
supporting high pressure (1012 to 1016 mb) at the surface over the
Gulf. Hot and dry weather will be the result for much of the long
term. Rain chances will remain limited during the long term while
temperatures creep higher. Highs in the upper 80s can be expected
at the beach, with lower 90s along the coast, to a handful of
degrees above the century mark out west each afternoon. Afternoon
heat index values will register in the 100 to 105 degree range
just after noon along the coast, and from 105 to 110 degrees
inland, with a few marks of up to 113 degrees, especially across
Starr County, thus threatening heat advisory conditions. The
aforementioned pattern should hold through the long term, with
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and moderate to fresh
southeast winds. Low temps will be in the upper 70s to near 80.

MARINE:
Now through Friday: Buoy 42020 reported south winds around 8
knots with seas less than 1 foot with a period of 4 seconds at 02
CDT/07 UTC. Persistent weak low pressure centered over the
northwest Gulf of Mexico will dissipate and transition to weak
high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico. The result of this
weather pattern will be mainly light winds and low seas for the
Lower Texas coastal waters during the forecast period.

Friday night through Monday...Moderate southeast winds and low to
moderate seas will persist through Sunday as broad high pressure
covers the Gulf. Wind strength will increase Sunday through Monday
due to a tighter gradient, resulting in building seas. Small craft
exercise caution to low end small craft advisory conditions will
be possible Sunday through Monday with southeast winds becoming
moderate to fresh. Seas will also build to between moderate and
high on Monday.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

53-SCHROEDER/63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 301807 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
107 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Kept trend of previous TAF package intact but added
mention of VCSH for BRO and HRL through 22Z as isolated showers
(no lightning yet) have begun to form along and behind the sea-
breeze front. Not confident at this time that these will survive
to reach MFE later so have omitted there. VFR to prevail through
the period at all terminals with only FEW lower clouds overnight.
Breezy S-SE winds developing mid-late morning on Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Only minor adjustments to the previous suite of TAFS.
Light to moderate winds and few clouds will greet pilots at the
aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Convection is expected for
the daylight hours of the forecast period, but will remain too
isolated in coverage to necessitate inclusion in the TAFS at this
time. Overall, VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): A deep 500 mb trough over the
eastern United States will remain extended into the western Gulf of
Mexico today and tonight. Coupled with deep tropical moisture,
featuring precipitable water values near 2 inches, another round of
isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for the BRO CWFA
today, with streamer activity over the Lower Texas coastal waters
tonight. The shifting of the mid-level trough into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, and 500 mb high pressure becoming centered over Texas,
will usher in dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley on Friday. Well above normal temperatures are anticipated
through the period. In fact, inherited daytime highs were retained
while overnight lows for tonight appeared too cool and were
increased a few degrees.

Long Term (Friday night through Wednesday): Mid level ridging
(592 dam) will set up over the Gulf and Texas initially,
supporting high pressure (1012 to 1016 mb) at the surface over the
Gulf. Hot and dry weather will be the result for much of the long
term. Rain chances will remain limited during the long term while
temperatures creep higher. Highs in the upper 80s can be expected
at the beach, with lower 90s along the coast, to a handful of
degrees above the century mark out west each afternoon. Afternoon
heat index values will register in the 100 to 105 degree range
just after noon along the coast, and from 105 to 110 degrees
inland, with a few marks of up to 113 degrees, especially across
Starr County, thus threatening heat advisory conditions. The
aforementioned pattern should hold through the long term, with
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and moderate to fresh
southeast winds. Low temps will be in the upper 70s to near 80.

MARINE:
Now through Friday: Buoy 42020 reported south winds around 8
knots with seas less than 1 foot with a period of 4 seconds at 02
CDT/07 UTC. Persistent weak low pressure centered over the
northwest Gulf of Mexico will dissipate and transition to weak
high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico. The result of this
weather pattern will be mainly light winds and low seas for the
Lower Texas coastal waters during the forecast period.

Friday night through Monday...Moderate southeast winds and low to
moderate seas will persist through Sunday as broad high pressure
covers the Gulf. Wind strength will increase Sunday through Monday
due to a tighter gradient, resulting in building seas. Small craft
exercise caution to low end small craft advisory conditions will
be possible Sunday through Monday with southeast winds becoming
moderate to fresh. Seas will also build to between moderate and
high on Monday.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

53-SCHROEDER/63




000
FXUS64 KAMA 301749 AAC
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1249 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.Aviation...
For the 18Z TAFS, it appears another round of showers and tstms will
develop across parts of the OK and TX Panhandles late this afternoon
through tonight. The greatest threat will likely be at KGUY, followed
by KDHT, with a very low probability at KAMA. Have included VCTS at
both KGUY and KDHT for mainly this evening. This time frame may need
to be extended past 06Z tonight, depending on how long tstms continue
to be a viable threat in our fcst area. A weak cold front will slide
into OK Panhandle and through KGUY at around 06Z tonight, then lift
north in KS by late Friday morning.

Andrade

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 1119 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

Update...
The latest round of showers and tstms has either dissipated or moved
southeast out of the fcst area. Have adjusted first period pop and
wx grids to account for latest radar trends. Updated public products
out shortly.

Andrade

Prev Discussion... /Issued 636 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

Aviation...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently about 30 miles west of
KAMA have been struggling to make much further eastward progress.
Will cautiously leave thunder out of KAMA forecast for the morning
hours.  Will monitor developments and amend if necessary.
Otherwise, southwest surface winds expected at all terminals today
and tonight.  Chances for thunderstorms will be greater late this
afternoon and this evening at all terminals.  Apart from any brief
visibility reductions in thunderstorms, VFR conditions will prevail
next 24 hours.

Cockrell

Prev Discussion... /Issued 415 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

Discussion...
Thunderstorms have persisted overnight as an MCS moving southeast
over Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, split apart and both pieces
have continued diving southeast through the Panhandles. Isentropic
lift on the 315 surface has aided in the maintenance of this system.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue development this
morning near the New Mexico/Texas state line and push east southeast
through the area. A break in activity is expected in the early
afternoon, which will allow for diabatic heating to bring more
instability to the area for another round of thunderstorms in the
late afternoon to evening. Deep layer shear is weak and PWAT values
are around 1.0, so slow moving storms could lead to localized
flooding concerns.

The models have not been consist from run to run as Friday now looks
to have the area dry slotted, so have decreased pops some but didn`t
want to fully remove until more consistency is achieved. A cold front
looks to push through the Panhandles Saturday and bring widespread
chances at showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening. Precip looks
to linger in the area Sunday morning before the front completely
pushes out of the area. The combination of a low level jet Saturday
night into Sunday and the passage of a shortwave will enhance lift
in the region. With effective bulk shear around 30 kts and MLCAPE
only around 1000J or less, storms should stay below severe levels.

Models start varying greatly after Sunday on the upper level flow
pattern, which affects the timing of the next shortwave. For now,
stayed with a model blend in the extended period. If the GFS solution
plays out, the 4th of July could see severe weather as it depicts
30 to 40kts of shear and 1500 to 2000 J of CAPE, making supercells
possible. Other models are not as optimistic on CAPE and the ECMWF
holds back the shortwave until Tuesday. What does look clear for next
week is that chances for precip start decreasing and temps will be
on the rise again with 100s back in the forecast by mid-week.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KAMA 301749 AAC
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1249 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.Aviation...
For the 18Z TAFS, it appears another round of showers and tstms will
develop across parts of the OK and TX Panhandles late this afternoon
through tonight. The greatest threat will likely be at KGUY, followed
by KDHT, with a very low probability at KAMA. Have included VCTS at
both KGUY and KDHT for mainly this evening. This time frame may need
to be extended past 06Z tonight, depending on how long tstms continue
to be a viable threat in our fcst area. A weak cold front will slide
into OK Panhandle and through KGUY at around 06Z tonight, then lift
north in KS by late Friday morning.

Andrade

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 1119 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

Update...
The latest round of showers and tstms has either dissipated or moved
southeast out of the fcst area. Have adjusted first period pop and
wx grids to account for latest radar trends. Updated public products
out shortly.

Andrade

Prev Discussion... /Issued 636 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

Aviation...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently about 30 miles west of
KAMA have been struggling to make much further eastward progress.
Will cautiously leave thunder out of KAMA forecast for the morning
hours.  Will monitor developments and amend if necessary.
Otherwise, southwest surface winds expected at all terminals today
and tonight.  Chances for thunderstorms will be greater late this
afternoon and this evening at all terminals.  Apart from any brief
visibility reductions in thunderstorms, VFR conditions will prevail
next 24 hours.

Cockrell

Prev Discussion... /Issued 415 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

Discussion...
Thunderstorms have persisted overnight as an MCS moving southeast
over Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, split apart and both pieces
have continued diving southeast through the Panhandles. Isentropic
lift on the 315 surface has aided in the maintenance of this system.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue development this
morning near the New Mexico/Texas state line and push east southeast
through the area. A break in activity is expected in the early
afternoon, which will allow for diabatic heating to bring more
instability to the area for another round of thunderstorms in the
late afternoon to evening. Deep layer shear is weak and PWAT values
are around 1.0, so slow moving storms could lead to localized
flooding concerns.

The models have not been consist from run to run as Friday now looks
to have the area dry slotted, so have decreased pops some but didn`t
want to fully remove until more consistency is achieved. A cold front
looks to push through the Panhandles Saturday and bring widespread
chances at showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening. Precip looks
to linger in the area Sunday morning before the front completely
pushes out of the area. The combination of a low level jet Saturday
night into Sunday and the passage of a shortwave will enhance lift
in the region. With effective bulk shear around 30 kts and MLCAPE
only around 1000J or less, storms should stay below severe levels.

Models start varying greatly after Sunday on the upper level flow
pattern, which affects the timing of the next shortwave. For now,
stayed with a model blend in the extended period. If the GFS solution
plays out, the 4th of July could see severe weather as it depicts
30 to 40kts of shear and 1500 to 2000 J of CAPE, making supercells
possible. Other models are not as optimistic on CAPE and the ECMWF
holds back the shortwave until Tuesday. What does look clear for next
week is that chances for precip start decreasing and temps will be
on the rise again with 100s back in the forecast by mid-week.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 301742
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1242 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through 00z Saturday
as an upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather across
the region. There will be some mostly thin high clouds and some
scattered late morning through afternoon cumulus. South southwest
winds at 7 to 10 knots at TAF issuance time will back to the
southeast 22-23z and veer to the south after 06z and south
southwest by 15z Friday. Since these winds are not operationally
significant, have not shown the wind direction changes in the
TAFS.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/
An upper level ridge centered over New Mexico will develop
southeastward across Texas over the next couple of days, bringing
hot and dry weather to North and Central Texas through the
weekend. Meanwhile, a weak mid level trough continues to generate
convection over Arizona. As the ridge builds southeast, the trough
will propagate anticyclonically around its western and northern
periphery. Over the weekend, the ridge will flatten and elongate
west to east from northern Mexico to Florida as flow becomes zonal
across the CONUS. This will allow the trough to translate east
across the Central and Southern Plains Sunday into Monday.

Forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave trough will be
sufficient for the development of showers and storms across
northwest Texas and Oklahoma during the day Sunday. Convection
should be initially focused along a weak front extending from West
TX into the Central Plains. Activity will likely spread eastward
across the Red River region Sunday night. Convection should
attempt to back-build southwestward, along either the front or
outflow from earlier convection, Sunday night into Monday morning.
However, the southern edge of these showers and storms will be
shut off as they encounter strong subsidence from the larger scale
upper ridge. This exact southern extent will be in question, but
the most recent guidance warrants at least slight chance POPs
extended down to roughly the I-20 corridor Sunday night and early
Monday. Rain chances should then shift east of the region by early
Monday evening, leaving the region dry in time for Fourth of July
festivities.

Outside of convective weather, hot and humid conditions can be
expected this weekend through most of next week. Afternoon heat
indices will approach 105 in many locations during this time. This
means that borderline heat advisory conditions will occur Sunday
through next week. Even if heat advisory criteria is not
technically met, folks should take precautions with regard to
outdoor activities during the holiday weekend, namely drinking
plenty of water and refraining from over-exertion. Also, remember
to check the backseat of your car and keep it locked to prevent
kids from entering and playing in the automobile.

By the end of the forecast period, the upper level pattern is
expected to look very similar to the current pattern, which is
upper ridging across the western and central parts of the country
and upper troughing across the east.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  78  97  78  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
Waco                96  75  96  76  96 /   0   0  10   5   5
Paris               94  73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10   5   5
Denton              95  74  95  75  96 /  10   5  10   5   5
McKinney            95  74  95  75  94 /  10   5  10   5   5
Dallas              97  79  97  79  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
Terrell             95  75  96  75  95 /   5   5  10   5   5
Corsicana           97  75  97  76  96 /   0   5  10   5   5
Temple              95  73  95  74  95 /   0   0   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       95  72  96  73  97 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

58/82




000
FXUS64 KFWD 301742
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1242 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through 00z Saturday
as an upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather across
the region. There will be some mostly thin high clouds and some
scattered late morning through afternoon cumulus. South southwest
winds at 7 to 10 knots at TAF issuance time will back to the
southeast 22-23z and veer to the south after 06z and south
southwest by 15z Friday. Since these winds are not operationally
significant, have not shown the wind direction changes in the
TAFS.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/
An upper level ridge centered over New Mexico will develop
southeastward across Texas over the next couple of days, bringing
hot and dry weather to North and Central Texas through the
weekend. Meanwhile, a weak mid level trough continues to generate
convection over Arizona. As the ridge builds southeast, the trough
will propagate anticyclonically around its western and northern
periphery. Over the weekend, the ridge will flatten and elongate
west to east from northern Mexico to Florida as flow becomes zonal
across the CONUS. This will allow the trough to translate east
across the Central and Southern Plains Sunday into Monday.

Forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave trough will be
sufficient for the development of showers and storms across
northwest Texas and Oklahoma during the day Sunday. Convection
should be initially focused along a weak front extending from West
TX into the Central Plains. Activity will likely spread eastward
across the Red River region Sunday night. Convection should
attempt to back-build southwestward, along either the front or
outflow from earlier convection, Sunday night into Monday morning.
However, the southern edge of these showers and storms will be
shut off as they encounter strong subsidence from the larger scale
upper ridge. This exact southern extent will be in question, but
the most recent guidance warrants at least slight chance POPs
extended down to roughly the I-20 corridor Sunday night and early
Monday. Rain chances should then shift east of the region by early
Monday evening, leaving the region dry in time for Fourth of July
festivities.

Outside of convective weather, hot and humid conditions can be
expected this weekend through most of next week. Afternoon heat
indices will approach 105 in many locations during this time. This
means that borderline heat advisory conditions will occur Sunday
through next week. Even if heat advisory criteria is not
technically met, folks should take precautions with regard to
outdoor activities during the holiday weekend, namely drinking
plenty of water and refraining from over-exertion. Also, remember
to check the backseat of your car and keep it locked to prevent
kids from entering and playing in the automobile.

By the end of the forecast period, the upper level pattern is
expected to look very similar to the current pattern, which is
upper ridging across the western and central parts of the country
and upper troughing across the east.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  78  97  78  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
Waco                96  75  96  76  96 /   0   0  10   5   5
Paris               94  73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10   5   5
Denton              95  74  95  75  96 /  10   5  10   5   5
McKinney            95  74  95  75  94 /  10   5  10   5   5
Dallas              97  79  97  79  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
Terrell             95  75  96  75  95 /   5   5  10   5   5
Corsicana           97  75  97  76  96 /   0   5  10   5   5
Temple              95  73  95  74  95 /   0   0   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       95  72  96  73  97 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

58/82




000
FXUS64 KSJT 301736
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1236 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across the terminals the next 24
hours. Expect light winds through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours. Light winds will become southeast 5 to 8 KTS
mid morning through noon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper ridging over New Mexico will continue to build
southeastward into West Central Texas today and tonight. This
will suppress shower and thunderstorm development. Temperatures
will climb a degree or two from yesterday, to highs in the 92 to
96 range, with lows in the lower 70s tonight.

04

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

Very little change was needed for the long term from the previous
forecast.

The upper level high pressure area currently over New Mexico and
Arizona will be centered over central Texas, on its way southeast
into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Friday night into Saturday, the
ridge will start to break down in our area as shortwave energy
moves into west Texas. As this shortwave energy moves across the
Caprock and Panhandle areas, it will also bring some mid and upper
level moisture with it. This will likely result in scattered
showers and thunderstorms to our west and northwest from Saturday
night into Tuesday, with a few of these storms possibly affecting
our western and northern counties. Although models do not indicate
a lot of precipitation for our area, should these clusters of
storms develop to our northwest, they could organize into MCS`s
Sunday or Monday night, and move southeast into our area,
especially if the nocturnal low level jet intensifies. So, these
PoPs could be increased in subsequent forecasts.

Otherwise, temperatures are still expected to be warmer from the
weekend into early next week, with hot temperatures expected for
Independence Day.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  73  94  74 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  94  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  95  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301727 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1227 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION.../18z Update/
VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. With
enough moisture may see some scattered clouds after 06z but do not
think at this time that we will see MVFR cigs. E/SE winds near 10
knots this afternoon will become southerly near 5 knots overnight
and back to SE at 10-15 knots after 16z Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions will prevail today through Friday morning.
However, FEW-SCT MVFR level clouds and patchy BR with MVFR VSBYs
are possible during the early morning hours. Sustained winds will
be less than 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Water vapor imagery is showing drier air being advected into South
Central Texas at midlevels tonight on the eastern periphery of
mid-to-upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners region. A
weak shortwave moving into northern California and digging into
Arizona on Friday will help move the upper level ridge east today
into New Mexico and west Texas for Friday. Thus, the only trigger
for convection besides a weak sea breeze will be a dissipating
outflow boundary located just south of the CWA that is currently
producing weak convection near Laredo and some isolated storms just
off the upper Texas Gulf Coast. This boundary may help generate
isolated thunderstorms today along and south of Highway 90, but
in general coverage is too low to warrant mentioning in the grids
except for our far southeastern counties in the Coastal Plains
where the sea breeze may help a few storms sneak in. A repeat is
expected for Friday with a smaller portion of the Coastal Plains
having a chance for isolated storms as drier air and subsidence
from the approaching ridge further decreases instability and
increases temperatures a few degrees above seasonal normals.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
The aforementioned ridge will remain centered over Texas this
weekend, but will be weakened a bit by the shortwave as it lifts
out of Arizona into the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma. By Sunday,
a surface trough developing in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle
will help increase southerly flow across South Central Texas that
will advect in additional Gulf moisture but generally not produce
storms given increasing stability and dry air aloft. This will
make it more difficult for the boundary layer to mix down drier
air aloft to provide some relief from humid conditions at the
surface, which will cause heat indices to rise into the 105-110
range for areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. Once
the shortwave completely passes to our north on Monday, a broader
subtropical ridge centered around Texas reasserts itself with no
clear end in sight and temperatures increasing into the upper 90s
and lower 100s for most of the region through at least the middle
of next week. This will likely set up a very hot and fairly humid
period without rainfall through at least the end of next week that
will have to be monitored for potential heat advisories.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  75  96  76  97 /  -   -   -   -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  72  95  74  97 /  -   -   -   -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  73  96  74  97 /  10  -   -   -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            94  74  94  75  95 /  -    0  -   -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           99  76  98  77 100 /  -    0  -    0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  74  95  76  96 /  -    0  -   -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             94  72  95  75  97 /  10  -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  73  94  74  96 /  10  -   -   -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  75  95  76  95 /  10  -   10  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  75  95  77  96 /  10  -   -   -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           97  76  97  77  98 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...10
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams




000
FXUS64 KLUB 301724
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1224 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue for TAF sites. Isolated storms
possible again by mid to late afternoon into the evening, but
confidence not high enough to include with the excception of KCDS
where model guidance and persistence suggests that convections
more likely there in the 23-03z time frame and thus included VCTS
there. Ridge will build in further tonight into Friday so drier
and slightly warmer wx expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 605 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

AVIATION...
A line of thunderstorms is currently moving through the KCDS
terminal and should be through the TAF site in a couple of hours.
Other showers were in the vicinity of KPVW and while they haven`t
produce lightning recently, there is still a possibility and will
continue a VCTS comment this morning. The only site that has not
received storms is KLBB and this should remain the case through
early afternoon. There will likely be another round of storms this
afternoon into early evening but confidence on timing and location
is too low to include at this time. Outside and away from storms,
VFR conditions will continue with a light wind gradually
transitioning to the south to southeast late in the day.

Jordan

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Another morning...another round of thunderstorms across portions of
the forecast area as well as questions as to how long they will last
and what impact it will have on the forecast for this afternoon and
evening.  00Z upper-air analysis shows the region still on the
eastern side of a dirty ridge that was centered over New Mexico.
Ample moisture remains trapped under the ridge with no indications
or hints of anything that could help spark the current storms.
Models are once again of little help as there is considerable spread
on storms being forecast or the models being dry.  The HRRR, RAP,
and ARW are the three that do have precipitation and they seem to
keep it confined across the northern row of counties through
sunrise.  They then generate more widespread precipitation by this
afternoon as far south as Lubbock. Difficult to see how this will
play out as the models start to push the center of the ridge towards
the forecast area and across it tonight so subsidence should be on
the increase through the day.  The regional and national models keep
precipitation out of the forecast for this afternoon so will keep a
mention of isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through mid-
morning across the northern half of the forecast area based on
current trends.

Will then keep a dry forecast through late afternoon before another
round of isolated storms for 21-00Z Friday in case anything is able
to develop like we saw yesterday afternoon. Confidence in the PoP
forecast remains pretty low because of how things are unfolding and
how poorly the models have done with coverage of precipitation the
last few days.  Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer as the
ridge starts to move over the area but ample moisture and remnant
cloud cover keep things from warming up too much.

Jordan

LONG TERM...
The upper ridge that has been centered to our west recently is still
on track to migrate east-southeastward over the next few days. This
will place the center of the ridge briefly overhead early Friday,
though it is progged to quickly shift to the eastern part of the
state Friday night and then over the northern Gulf of Mexico
thereafter where it will bridge with low amplitude ridging into
northern Mexico through the first part of next week. After Friday
this will keep West Texas on the southern fringe of quasi-zonal mid-
upper level flow that will carry the occasional embedded
disturbance.

As the upper high passes over on Friday we will likely see dry
and hot conditions (as our northerly to north-northwesterly
steering flow that has kept convection occasionally making a run
into the CWA will be no more) with highs in the middle and upper
90s common. The heat will persist right on through the remainder
of the extended. However, as the upper ridge shifts east monsoonal
moisture will bend northeastward over the region and when coupled
with a shortwave trough emerging from the southern Rockies on
Saturday we will see storm chances increase. In fact we could even
see a little convection attempt to leak out of New Mexico into the
western zones as early as Friday night. A slight uptick in
moisture/instability and deep layer shear could even support a few
strong to marginally severe storms late Saturday.

The primary shortwave may be exiting to the east by late Sunday,
but a weak surface boundary sagging into the South Plains along
with residual moisture could be enough to support additional storm
development locally. This will be the case into Monday and Tuesday
as well as a more limited fetch of monsoon moisture may still
reside nearby too and a weak mid-level disturbance or two may
graze the region from the north. All in all, at least low storm
chances will persist in the region right on into early next week.
This could even be the case into the middle of next week, though
at the moment the ridge is progged to build back closer to home
making storm development/coverage less certain. Given this we have
maintained lower unmentionable 10 PoPs by Wednesday. This is very
close to what was already in the forecast and only minor adjustments
were made through the extended.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KMAF 301704
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1204 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southeast winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Thursday...Satl imagery is showing
several clusters of thunderstorms in the Northern TX Panhandle.
These convective clusters are moving southeast...but should
dissipate before reaching the CWA.

Upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will build east
today. This should provide enough subsidence to quash most
thunderstorm chances...but there could still be a storm or two
over the Davis Mtns this aftn. A weak trof along the CA coast will
translate east turning the flow to the west on Friday. This could
allow deeper monsoonal moisture and weak lift to move east into
the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns leading to a better chance of
thunderstorms in the higher terrain. Temps today and Friday will
be near seasonal normals.

A weak trof remains over the Southern Plains for the Independence
Day holiday weekend keeping the ridge flattened. This will
continue the slt chc/chc of thunderstorms over the higher
terrain...with even a slt chc over the Plains. The thermal ridge
will also push east...with temps a little above normal. Temps
could reach 100 across the Plains...near 105 in the Pecos and Rio
Grande River Valleys...and 90s in the mountains. Little change in
sensible weather is expected thru at least the middle of next week
as weak trofs ripple across the Southern Plains.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       96  68  95  71 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  95  71  95  72 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 88  67  87  67 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          88  62  86  63 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           95  71  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         94  71  95  74 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           98  72  98  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10




000
FXUS64 KAMA 301619 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1119 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.Update...
The latest round of showers and tstms has either dissipated or moved
southeast out of the fcst area. Have adjusted first period pop and
wx grids to account for latest radar trends. Updated public products
out shortly.

Andrade

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 636 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

Aviation...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently about 30 miles west of
KAMA have been struggling to make much further eastward progress.
Will cautiously leave thunder out of KAMA forecast for the morning
hours.  Will monitor developments and amend if necessary.
Otherwise, southwest surface winds expected at all terminals today
and tonight.  Chances for thunderstorms will be greater late this
afternoon and this evening at all terminals.  Apart from any brief
visibility reductions in thunderstorms, VFR conditions will prevail
next 24 hours.

Cockrell

Prev Discussion... /Issued 415 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

Discussion...
Thunderstorms have persisted overnight as an MCS moving southeast
over Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, split apart and both pieces
have continued diving southeast through the Panhandles. Isentropic
lift on the 315 surface has aided in the maintenance of this system.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue development this
morning near the New Mexico/Texas state line and push east southeast
through the area. A break in activity is expected in the early
afternoon, which will allow for diabatic heating to bring more
instability to the area for another round of thunderstorms in the
late afternoon to evening. Deep layer shear is weak and PWAT values
are around 1.0, so slow moving storms could lead to localized
flooding concerns.

The models have not been consist from run to run as Friday now looks
to have the area dry slotted, so have decreased pops some but didn`t
want to fully remove until more consistency is achieved. A cold front
looks to push through the Panhandles Saturday and bring widespread
chances at showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening. Precip looks
to linger in the area Sunday morning before the front completely
pushes out of the area. The combination of a low level jet Saturday
night into Sunday and the passage of a shortwave will enhance lift
in the region. With effective bulk shear around 30 kts and MLCAPE
only around 1000J or less, storms should stay below severe levels.

Models start varying greatly after Sunday on the upper level flow
pattern, which affects the timing of the next shortwave. For now,
stayed with a model blend in the extended period. If the GFS solution
plays out, the 4th of July could see severe weather as it depicts
30 to 40kts of shear and 1500 to 2000 J of CAPE, making supercells
possible. Other models are not as optimistic on CAPE and the ECMWF
holds back the shortwave until Tuesday. What does look clear for next
week is that chances for precip start decreasing and temps will be
on the rise again with 100s back in the forecast by mid-week.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 301421
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
921 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are continuing to drift across
the offshore waters this morning. A few showers and storms may
develop inland this afternoon, but the bulk of the activity is
expected to remain offshore. No significant changes were made to
the previous forecast. Highs this afternoon are forecast in the
low to mid 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to mid 100s. 11

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
VFR. Most of today`s SHRA/-TSRA activity will be focused along
and south of I-10, or where the highest moisture and weak coastal
boundary reside. Another day of few-sct 030-050 cu/tcu with an
early day northeast-vrb breeze becoming more easterly then veering
southeasterly late in the day. Moderate chances for the return of
late period southern terminal light precipitation or isolated Friday
morning -TSRA. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Some shower and isolated thunderstorm activity has developed near the
coast early this morning mainly in and around the Galveston Bay area
and further off to the east across the Texas and Louisiana coastal waters.
Models continue to indicate more development near and along the coast
during the remaining overnight and morning hours with activity possibly
spreading inland during the day. Made little change to the area`s rain
chances with lower values inland and higher values near the coast and
offshore. Still expecting decreasing rain coverage heading into the
holiday weekend as mid/upper level high pressure builds across the area.
Besides the near zero rain chances, this ridge will also bring gradually
warming temperatures to the area into next week with highs working their
way into the mid to upper 90s while lows possibly struggle to fall under
80 degrees. Still anticipating daily heat index values edging upward
into a 100-110 degree range beginning on Sunday, and we`ll be closely
monitoring these values for possible heat advisories.  42

MARINE...
A near non-existent pressure gradient over the local waters, along
with a weak offshore boundary and any passing shower or storm`s gust
front, will maintain these current variable breezes over sub 2 foot
seas through week`s close. Lowering western Texas pressures, in
relation with eastern Gulf high pressure, will tighten the weekend
onshore pressure gradient. Gulf southerlies will respond in
strengthening to caution levels early next week. Weekend 2-3 foot
seas will pick up to 4-5 foot seas/slightly choppy bays by Monday
(4th of July) and maintain at least 3-4 foot average heights through
next week. Enough atmospheric instability exists to keep moderate
shower and storm chances in place through tomorrow. A dry weather
pattern will commence Saturday with near nil precipitation chances
as regional high pressure at all levels asserts itself through the
holiday weekend. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      94  75  95  76  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              95  76  95  77  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            90  81  91  82  91 /  30  10  30  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...11




000
FXUS64 KHGX 301152
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
652 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR. Most of today`s SHRA/-TSRA activity will be focused along
and south of I-10, or where the highest moisture and weak coastal
boundary reside. Another day of few-sct 030-050 cu/tcu with an
early day northeast-vrb breeze becoming more easterly then veering
southeasterly late in the day. Moderate chances for the return of
late period southern terminal light precipitation or isolated Friday
morning -TSRA. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Some shower and isolated thunderstorm activity has developed near the
coast early this morning mainly in and around the Galveston Bay area
and further off to the east across the Texas and Louisiana coastal waters.
Models continue to indicate more development near and along the coast
during the remaining overnight and morning hours with activity possibly
spreading inland during the day. Made little change to the area`s rain
chances with lower values inland and higher values near the coast and
offshore. Still expecting decreasing rain coverage heading into the
holiday weekend as mid/upper level high pressure builds across the area.
Besides the near zero rain chances, this ridge will also bring gradually
warming temperatures to the area into next week with highs working their
way into the mid to upper 90s while lows possibly struggle to fall under
80 degrees. Still anticipating daily heat index values edging upward
into a 100-110 degree range beginning on Sunday, and we`ll be closely
monitoring these values for possible heat advisories.  42

&&

MARINE...
A near non-existent pressure gradient over the local waters, along
with a weak offshore boundary and any passing shower or storm`s gust
front, will maintain these current variable breezes over sub 2 foot
seas through week`s close. Lowering western Texas pressures, in
relation with eastern Gulf high pressure, will tighten the weekend
onshore pressure gradient. Gulf southerlies will respond in
strengthening to caution levels early next week. Weekend 2-3 foot
seas will pick up to 4-5 foot seas/slightly choppy bays by Monday
(4th of July) and maintain at least 3-4 foot average heights through
next week. Enough atmospheric instability exists to keep moderate
shower and storm chances in place through tomorrow. A dry weather
pattern will commence Saturday with near nil precipitation chances
as regional high pressure at all levels asserts itself through the
holiday weekend. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      94  75  95  76  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              95  76  95  77  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            90  81  91  82  91 /  30  10  30  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31




000
FXUS64 KCRP 301148
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
648 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 12Z aviation cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

Not much change from the previous taf thinking.

Today...VFR. Expecting even less coverage in afternoon showers and
thunder than we experienced on Wednesday but the potential still
exists so we continue with the VCSH through the late afternoon
hours. Winds remain mostly out of the southeast before backing slightly
to the east later this evening. Medium to high confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Shower activity should be offshore and fog should
remain isolated, mostly near KVCT. A light offshore land-breeze
may develop around KCRP/KALI late tonight but overall winds will
remain very light. Medium to high confidence.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

Another morning another weak surface trough extending from portions
of South Texas eastward across the Gulf waters towards LA. More
scattered convection has developed along this boundary over the Gulf
waters though not nearly as vigorous as we saw 24 hours ago. Still
carry chance PoPs across the coastal waters and portions of the
Coastal Bend later this morning spreading into the mid-afternoon
hours. Highest MLCAPE values are progged to be around 2500 j/kg
along the coast and immediate inland areas so the seabreeze boundary
could be more active today than days past. With very weak flow aloft
any storms will be slow to move and could drop a decent amount of
rain quickly before becoming outflow dominant. The outflows will
lead to potentially more convection inland with the help of the weak
surface trough as it slides ever so slightly southward. Heat index
values will once again be around 105 to 109 degrees across much the
region with possibly excluding Victoria Crossroads where more cloud
cover and slightly cooler temperatures will be.

Somewhat drier air works into the region from the north-northwest on
Friday as both surface and mid-level ridging move closer. We
continue to confine our PoPs across the northern Coastal Bend where
the higher moisture axis will remain. Again expecting another weak
surface trough to be across the region combining with seabreeze
interactions to develop mostly late morning and afternoon
convection.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...

..Dangerous Heat Conditions Expected Over 4th of July Weekend...

Little change of significance was made to the extended forecast
tonight. Elongated and strong subtropical ridge will greatly
influence South Texas weather over the weekend and into next week
with hot and dry conditions prevailing. An increase in overall
thermal profile will preclude much /if any/ precip from developing.
Best chances /very low at that/ may be a few nocturnal showers along
the immediate coast over the weekend. Biggest weather concern will
be the increase in heat and humidity across the region. Afternoon
highs nearly each day will be in the upper 90s across the inland
Coastal Plains and greater than 100 degrees across the Brush
Country. Add in some higher dewpoints than what we have had most of
this week and heat indices should reach/exceed 110 degrees across
portions of the region for a period of several days. Of interest is
an unseasonably strong southerly LLJ that is prog to develop over
the weekend and early next week as cyclogenesis occurs across the
Plains. This should result in breezy/windy conditions each day...but
also delay the passage of the seabreeze...which in turn will allow
for hotter temps to materialize. Overall...confidence is increasing
in Heat Advisories needing to be issued for portions of the region
at some point over the Holiday Weekend. Currently...Sunday through
Wednesday are forecast to be the hottest and most humid days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  76  95  78  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
Victoria          94  74  95  76  95  /  20  10  20  10  10
Laredo            99  78 102  80 103  /  10  10   0   0   0
Alice             98  74  98  76  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
Rockport          91  79  93  80  93  /  20  10  20  10  10
Cotulla          101  76 101  76 102  /  10  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        96  75  96  78  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       92  79  91  80  92  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KAMA 301136
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
636 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.Aviation...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently about 30 miles west of
KAMA have been struggling to make much further eastward progress.
Will cautiously leave thunder out of KAMA forecast for the morning
hours.  Will monitor developments and amend if necessary.
Otherwise, southwest surface winds expected at all terminals today
and tonight.  Chances for thunderstorms will be greater late this
afternoon and this evening at all terminals.  Apart from any brief
visibility reductions in thunderstorms, VFR conditions will prevail
next 24 hours.

Cockrell

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 415 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

Discussion...
Thunderstorms have persisted overnight as an MCS moving southeast
over Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, split apart and both pieces
have continued diving southeast through the Panhandles. Isentropic
lift on the 315 surface has aided in the maintenance of this system.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue development this
morning near the New Mexico/Texas state line and push east southeast
through the area. A break in activity is expected in the early
afternoon, which will allow for diabatic heating to bring more
instability to the area for another round of thunderstorms in the
late afternoon to evening. Deep layer shear is weak and PWAT values
are around 1.0, so slow moving storms could lead to localized
flooding concerns.

The models have not been consist from run to run as Friday now looks
to have the area dry slotted, so have decreased pops some but didn`t
want to fully remove until more consistency is achieved. A cold front
looks to push through the Panhandles Saturday and bring widespread
chances at showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening. Precip looks
to linger in the area Sunday morning before the front completely
pushes out of the area. The combination of a low level jet Saturday
night into Sunday and the passage of a shortwave will enhance lift
in the region. With effective bulk shear around 30 kts and MLCAPE
only around 1000J or less, storms should stay below severe levels.

Models start varying greatly after Sunday on the upper level flow
pattern, which affects the timing of the next shortwave. For now,
stayed with a model blend in the extended period. If the GFS solution
plays out, the 4th of July could see severe weather as it depicts
30 to 40kts of shear and 1500 to 2000 J of CAPE, making supercells
possible. Other models are not as optimistic on CAPE and the ECMWF
holds back the shortwave until Tuesday. What does look clear for next
week is that chances for precip start decreasing and temps will be
on the rise again with 100s back in the forecast by mid-week.

Beat

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                93  67  95  69  94 /  30  20  10  10  30
Beaver OK                  93  67  95  69  93 /  40  50  30  30  40
Boise City OK              95  64  91  65  87 /  40  40  30  30  50
Borger TX                  94  71  97  73  95 /  40  20  10  20  40
Boys Ranch TX              97  67  98  70  94 /  30  20  10  20  40
Canyon TX                  94  67  95  69  94 /  30  10   5  10  30
Clarendon TX               92  67  94  71  95 /  20  10  10  10  30
Dalhart TX                 96  64  95  66  91 /  40  30  20  30  40
Guymon OK                  95  67  94  69  90 /  40  40  20  30  40
Hereford TX                94  65  94  69  94 /  20  10   5  10  40
Lipscomb TX                92  67  96  70  93 /  40  40  20  20  30
Pampa TX                   91  67  94  68  93 /  40  20  10  20  30
Shamrock TX                93  69  95  72  96 /  30  20  10  10  30
Wellington TX              95  71  97  73  97 /  20  10  10   5  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/16




000
FXUS64 KAMA 301136
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
636 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.Aviation...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently about 30 miles west of
KAMA have been struggling to make much further eastward progress.
Will cautiously leave thunder out of KAMA forecast for the morning
hours.  Will monitor developments and amend if necessary.
Otherwise, southwest surface winds expected at all terminals today
and tonight.  Chances for thunderstorms will be greater late this
afternoon and this evening at all terminals.  Apart from any brief
visibility reductions in thunderstorms, VFR conditions will prevail
next 24 hours.

Cockrell

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 415 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

Discussion...
Thunderstorms have persisted overnight as an MCS moving southeast
over Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, split apart and both pieces
have continued diving southeast through the Panhandles. Isentropic
lift on the 315 surface has aided in the maintenance of this system.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue development this
morning near the New Mexico/Texas state line and push east southeast
through the area. A break in activity is expected in the early
afternoon, which will allow for diabatic heating to bring more
instability to the area for another round of thunderstorms in the
late afternoon to evening. Deep layer shear is weak and PWAT values
are around 1.0, so slow moving storms could lead to localized
flooding concerns.

The models have not been consist from run to run as Friday now looks
to have the area dry slotted, so have decreased pops some but didn`t
want to fully remove until more consistency is achieved. A cold front
looks to push through the Panhandles Saturday and bring widespread
chances at showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening. Precip looks
to linger in the area Sunday morning before the front completely
pushes out of the area. The combination of a low level jet Saturday
night into Sunday and the passage of a shortwave will enhance lift
in the region. With effective bulk shear around 30 kts and MLCAPE
only around 1000J or less, storms should stay below severe levels.

Models start varying greatly after Sunday on the upper level flow
pattern, which affects the timing of the next shortwave. For now,
stayed with a model blend in the extended period. If the GFS solution
plays out, the 4th of July could see severe weather as it depicts
30 to 40kts of shear and 1500 to 2000 J of CAPE, making supercells
possible. Other models are not as optimistic on CAPE and the ECMWF
holds back the shortwave until Tuesday. What does look clear for next
week is that chances for precip start decreasing and temps will be
on the rise again with 100s back in the forecast by mid-week.

Beat

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                93  67  95  69  94 /  30  20  10  10  30
Beaver OK                  93  67  95  69  93 /  40  50  30  30  40
Boise City OK              95  64  91  65  87 /  40  40  30  30  50
Borger TX                  94  71  97  73  95 /  40  20  10  20  40
Boys Ranch TX              97  67  98  70  94 /  30  20  10  20  40
Canyon TX                  94  67  95  69  94 /  30  10   5  10  30
Clarendon TX               92  67  94  71  95 /  20  10  10  10  30
Dalhart TX                 96  64  95  66  91 /  40  30  20  30  40
Guymon OK                  95  67  94  69  90 /  40  40  20  30  40
Hereford TX                94  65  94  69  94 /  20  10   5  10  40
Lipscomb TX                92  67  96  70  93 /  40  40  20  20  30
Pampa TX                   91  67  94  68  93 /  40  20  10  20  30
Shamrock TX                93  69  95  72  96 /  30  20  10  10  30
Wellington TX              95  71  97  73  97 /  20  10  10   5  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/16




000
FXUS64 KSJT 301134
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours. Light winds will become southeast 5 to 8 KTS
mid morning through noon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper ridging over New Mexico will continue to build
southeastward into West Central Texas today and tonight. This
will suppress shower and thunderstorm development. Temperatures
will climb a degree or two from yesterday, to highs in the 92 to
96 range, with lows in the lower 70s tonight.

04

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

Very little change was needed for the long term from the previous
forecast.

The upper level high pressure area currently over New Mexico and
Arizona will be centered over central Texas, on its way southeast
into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Friday night into Saturday, the
ridge will start to break down in our area as shortwave energy
moves into west Texas. As this shortwave energy moves across the
Caprock and Panhandle areas, it will also bring some mid and upper
level moisture with it. This will likely result in scattered
showers and thunderstorms to our west and northwest from Saturday
night into Tuesday, with a few of these storms possibly affecting
our western and northern counties. Although models do not indicate
a lot of precipitation for our area, should these clusters of
storms develop to our northwest, they could organize into MCS`s
Sunday or Monday night, and move southeast into our area,
especially if the nocturnal low level jet intensifies. So, these
PoPs could be increased in subsequent forecasts.

Otherwise, temperatures are still expected to be warmer from the
weekend into early next week, with hot temperatures expected for
Independence Day.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  73  94  74 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  94  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  95  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/04




000
FXUS64 KSJT 301134
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours. Light winds will become southeast 5 to 8 KTS
mid morning through noon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper ridging over New Mexico will continue to build
southeastward into West Central Texas today and tonight. This
will suppress shower and thunderstorm development. Temperatures
will climb a degree or two from yesterday, to highs in the 92 to
96 range, with lows in the lower 70s tonight.

04

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

Very little change was needed for the long term from the previous
forecast.

The upper level high pressure area currently over New Mexico and
Arizona will be centered over central Texas, on its way southeast
into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Friday night into Saturday, the
ridge will start to break down in our area as shortwave energy
moves into west Texas. As this shortwave energy moves across the
Caprock and Panhandle areas, it will also bring some mid and upper
level moisture with it. This will likely result in scattered
showers and thunderstorms to our west and northwest from Saturday
night into Tuesday, with a few of these storms possibly affecting
our western and northern counties. Although models do not indicate
a lot of precipitation for our area, should these clusters of
storms develop to our northwest, they could organize into MCS`s
Sunday or Monday night, and move southeast into our area,
especially if the nocturnal low level jet intensifies. So, these
PoPs could be increased in subsequent forecasts.

Otherwise, temperatures are still expected to be warmer from the
weekend into early next week, with hot temperatures expected for
Independence Day.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  73  94  74 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  94  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  95  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/04




000
FXUS64 KBRO 301125 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
625 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&

.AVIATION...Only minor adjustments to the previous suite of TAFS.
Light to moderate winds and few clouds will greet pilots at the
aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Convection is expected for
the daylight hours of the forecast period, but will remain too
isolated in coverage to necessitate inclusion in the TAFS at this
time. Overall, VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): A deep 500 mb trough over the
eastern United States will remain extended into the western Gulf of
Mexico today and tonight. Coupled with deep tropical moisture,
featuring precipitable water values near 2 inches, another round of
isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for the BRO CWFA
today, with streamer activity over the Lower Texas coastal waters
tonight. The shifting of the mid-level trough into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, and 500 mb high pressure becoming centered over Texas,
will usher in dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley on Friday. Well above normal temperatures are anticipated
through the period. In fact, inherited daytime highs were retained
while overnight lows for tonight appeared too cool and were
increased a few degrees.

Long Term (Friday night through Wednesday): Mid level ridging
(592 dam) will set up over the Gulf and Texas initially,
supporting high pressure (1012 to 1016 mb) at the surface over the
Gulf. Hot and dry weather will be the result for much of the long
term. Rain chances will remain limited during the long term while
temperatures creep higher. Highs in the upper 80s can be expected
at the beach, with lower 90s along the coast, to a handful of
degrees above the century mark out west each afternoon. Afternoon
heat index values will register in the 100 to 105 degree range
just after noon along the coast, and from 105 to 110 degrees
inland, with a few marks of up to 113 degrees, especially across
Starr County, thus threatening heat advisory conditions. The
aforementioned pattern should hold through the long term, with
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and moderate to fresh
southeast winds. Low temps will be in the upper 70s to near 80.

MARINE:
Now through Friday: Buoy 42020 reported south winds around 8
knots with seas less than 1 foot with a period of 4 seconds at 02
CDT/07 UTC. Persistent weak low pressure centered over the
northwest Gulf of Mexico will dissipate and transition to weak
high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico. The result of this
weather pattern will be mainly light winds and low seas for the
Lower Texas coastal waters during the forecast period.

Friday night through Monday...Moderate southeast winds and low to
moderate seas will persist through Sunday as broad high pressure
covers the Gulf. Wind strength will increase Sunday through Monday
due to a tighter gradient, resulting in building seas. Small craft
exercise caution to low end small craft advisory conditions will
be possible Sunday through Monday with southeast winds becoming
moderate to fresh. Seas will also build to between moderate and
high on Monday.
&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KBRO 301125 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
625 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&

.AVIATION...Only minor adjustments to the previous suite of TAFS.
Light to moderate winds and few clouds will greet pilots at the
aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Convection is expected for
the daylight hours of the forecast period, but will remain too
isolated in coverage to necessitate inclusion in the TAFS at this
time. Overall, VFR will prevail through the next 24 hours.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): A deep 500 mb trough over the
eastern United States will remain extended into the western Gulf of
Mexico today and tonight. Coupled with deep tropical moisture,
featuring precipitable water values near 2 inches, another round of
isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for the BRO CWFA
today, with streamer activity over the Lower Texas coastal waters
tonight. The shifting of the mid-level trough into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, and 500 mb high pressure becoming centered over Texas,
will usher in dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley on Friday. Well above normal temperatures are anticipated
through the period. In fact, inherited daytime highs were retained
while overnight lows for tonight appeared too cool and were
increased a few degrees.

Long Term (Friday night through Wednesday): Mid level ridging
(592 dam) will set up over the Gulf and Texas initially,
supporting high pressure (1012 to 1016 mb) at the surface over the
Gulf. Hot and dry weather will be the result for much of the long
term. Rain chances will remain limited during the long term while
temperatures creep higher. Highs in the upper 80s can be expected
at the beach, with lower 90s along the coast, to a handful of
degrees above the century mark out west each afternoon. Afternoon
heat index values will register in the 100 to 105 degree range
just after noon along the coast, and from 105 to 110 degrees
inland, with a few marks of up to 113 degrees, especially across
Starr County, thus threatening heat advisory conditions. The
aforementioned pattern should hold through the long term, with
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and moderate to fresh
southeast winds. Low temps will be in the upper 70s to near 80.

MARINE:
Now through Friday: Buoy 42020 reported south winds around 8
knots with seas less than 1 foot with a period of 4 seconds at 02
CDT/07 UTC. Persistent weak low pressure centered over the
northwest Gulf of Mexico will dissipate and transition to weak
high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico. The result of this
weather pattern will be mainly light winds and low seas for the
Lower Texas coastal waters during the forecast period.

Friday night through Monday...Moderate southeast winds and low to
moderate seas will persist through Sunday as broad high pressure
covers the Gulf. Wind strength will increase Sunday through Monday
due to a tighter gradient, resulting in building seas. Small craft
exercise caution to low end small craft advisory conditions will
be possible Sunday through Monday with southeast winds becoming
moderate to fresh. Seas will also build to between moderate and
high on Monday.
&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KFWD 301122 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
622 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period with light
southeast winds through the day. Storms to the northwest of the
region are expected to be of little impact to the area as they
will weaken through the day. No major aviation concerns expected
through Friday.

Dunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/
An upper level ridge centered over New Mexico will develop
southeastward across Texas over the next couple of days, bringing
hot and dry weather to North and Central Texas through the
weekend. Meanwhile, a weak mid level trough continues to generate
convection over Arizona. As the ridge builds southeast, the trough
will propagate anticyclonically around its western and northern
periphery. Over the weekend, the ridge will flatten and elongate
west to east from northern Mexico to Florida as flow becomes zonal
across the CONUS. This will allow the trough to translate east
across the Central and Southern Plains Sunday into Monday.

Forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave trough will be
sufficient for the development of showers and storms across
northwest Texas and Oklahoma during the day Sunday. Convection
should be initially focused along a weak front extending from West
TX into the Central Plains. Activity will likely spread eastward
across the Red River region Sunday night. Convection should
attempt to back-build southwestward, along either the front or
outflow from earlier convection, Sunday night into Monday morning.
However, the southern edge of these showers and storms will be
shut off as they encounter strong subsidence from the larger scale
upper ridge. This exact southern extent will be in question, but
the most recent guidance warrants at least slight chance POPs
extended down to roughly the I-20 corridor Sunday night and early
Monday. Rain chances should then shift east of the region by early
Monday evening, leaving the region dry in time for Fourth of July
festivities.

Outside of convective weather, hot and humid conditions can be
expected this weekend through most of next week. Afternoon heat
indices will approach 105 in many locations during this time. This
means that borderline heat advisory conditions will occur Sunday
through next week. Even if heat advisory criteria is not
technically met, folks should take precautions with regard to
outdoor activities during the holiday weekend, namely drinking
plenty of water and refraining from over-exertion. Also, remember
to check the backseat of your car and keep it locked to prevent
kids from entering and playing in the automobile.

By the end of the forecast period, the upper level pattern is
expected to look very similar to the current pattern, which is
upper ridging across the western and central parts of the country
and upper troughing across the east.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  78  97  78  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
Waco                96  75  96  76  96 /   0   0  10   5   5
Paris               94  73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10   5   5
Denton              95  74  95  75  96 /  10   5  10   5   5
McKinney            95  74  95  75  94 /  10   5  10   5   5
Dallas              97  79  97  79  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
Terrell             95  75  96  75  95 /   5   5  10   5   5
Corsicana           97  75  97  76  96 /   0   5  10   5   5
Temple              95  73  95  74  95 /   0   0   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       95  72  96  73  97 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 301113
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
613 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
mostly light out of a generally southeast direction.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Thursday...Satl imagery is showing
several clusters of thunderstorms in the Northern TX Panhandle.
These convective clusters are moving southeast...but should
dissipate before reaching the CWA.

Upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will build east
today. This should provide enough subsidence to quash most
thunderstorm chances...but there could still be a storm or two
over the Davis Mtns this aftn. A weak trof along the CA coast will
translate east turning the flow to the west on Friday. This could
allow deeper monsoonal moisture and weak lift to move east into
the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns leading to a better chance of
thunderstorms in the higher terrain. Temps today and Friday will
be near seasonal normals.

A weak trof remains over the Southern Plains for the Independence
Day holiday weekend keeping the ridge flattened. This will
continue the slt chc/chc of thunderstorms over the higher
terrain...with even a slt chc over the Plains. The thermal ridge
will also push east...with temps a little above normal. Temps
could reach 100 across the Plains...near 105 in the Pecos and Rio
Grande River Valleys...and 90s in the mountains. Little change in
sensible weather is expected thru at least the middle of next week
as weak trofs ripple across the Southern Plains.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       96  68  95  71 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  95  71  95  72 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 88  67  87  67 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          88  62  86  63 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           95  71  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         94  71  95  74 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           98  72  98  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/




000
FXUS64 KMAF 301113
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
613 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
mostly light out of a generally southeast direction.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Thursday...Satl imagery is showing
several clusters of thunderstorms in the Northern TX Panhandle.
These convective clusters are moving southeast...but should
dissipate before reaching the CWA.

Upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will build east
today. This should provide enough subsidence to quash most
thunderstorm chances...but there could still be a storm or two
over the Davis Mtns this aftn. A weak trof along the CA coast will
translate east turning the flow to the west on Friday. This could
allow deeper monsoonal moisture and weak lift to move east into
the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns leading to a better chance of
thunderstorms in the higher terrain. Temps today and Friday will
be near seasonal normals.

A weak trof remains over the Southern Plains for the Independence
Day holiday weekend keeping the ridge flattened. This will
continue the slt chc/chc of thunderstorms over the higher
terrain...with even a slt chc over the Plains. The thermal ridge
will also push east...with temps a little above normal. Temps
could reach 100 across the Plains...near 105 in the Pecos and Rio
Grande River Valleys...and 90s in the mountains. Little change in
sensible weather is expected thru at least the middle of next week
as weak trofs ripple across the Southern Plains.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       96  68  95  71 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  95  71  95  72 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 88  67  87  67 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          88  62  86  63 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           95  71  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         94  71  95  74 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           98  72  98  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/




000
FXUS64 KLUB 301105 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
605 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
A line of thunderstorms is currently moving through the KCDS
terminal and should be through the TAF site in a couple of hours.
Other showers were in the vicinity of KPVW and while they haven`t
produce lightning recently, there is still a possibility and will
continue a VCTS comment this morning. The only site that has not
received storms is KLBB and this should remain the case through
early afternoon. There will likely be another round of storms this
afternoon into early evening but confidence on timing and location
is too low to include at this time. Outside and away from storms,
VFR conditions will continue with a light wind gradually
transitioning to the south to southeast late in the day.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Another morning...another round of thunderstorms across portions of
the forecast area as well as questions as to how long they will last
and what impact it will have on the forecast for this afternoon and
evening.  00Z upper-air analysis shows the region still on the
eastern side of a dirty ridge that was centered over New Mexico.
Ample moisture remains trapped under the ridge with no indications
or hints of anything that could help spark the current storms.
Models are once again of little help as there is considerable spread
on storms being forecast or the models being dry.  The HRRR, RAP,
and ARW are the three that do have precipitation and they seem to
keep it confined across the northern row of counties through
sunrise.  They then generate more widespread precipitation by this
afternoon as far south as Lubbock. Difficult to see how this will
play out as the models start to push the center of the ridge towards
the forecast area and across it tonight so subsidence should be on
the increase through the day.  The regional and national models keep
precipitation out of the forecast for this afternoon so will keep a
mention of isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through mid-
morning across the northern half of the forecast area based on
current trends.

Will then keep a dry forecast through late afternoon before another
round of isolated storms for 21-00Z Friday in case anything is able
to develop like we saw yesterday afternoon. Confidence in the PoP
forecast remains pretty low because of how things are unfolding and
how poorly the models have done with coverage of precipitation the
last few days.  Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer as the
ridge starts to move over the area but ample moisture and remnant
cloud cover keep things from warming up too much.

Jordan

LONG TERM...
The upper ridge that has been centered to our west recently is still
on track to migrate east-southeastward over the next few days. This
will place the center of the ridge briefly overhead early Friday,
though it is progged to quickly shift to the eastern part of the
state Friday night and then over the northern Gulf of Mexico
thereafter where it will bridge with low amplitude ridging into
northern Mexico through the first part of next week. After Friday
this will keep West Texas on the southern fringe of quasi-zonal mid-
upper level flow that will carry the occasional embedded
disturbance.

As the upper high passes over on Friday we will likely see dry
and hot conditions (as our northerly to north-northwesterly
steering flow that has kept convection occasionally making a run
into the CWA will be no more) with highs in the middle and upper
90s common. The heat will persist right on through the remainder
of the extended. However, as the upper ridge shifts east monsoonal
moisture will bend northeastward over the region and when coupled
with a shortwave trough emerging from the southern Rockies on
Saturday we will see storm chances increase. In fact we could even
see a little convection attempt to leak out of New Mexico into the
western zones as early as Friday night. A slight uptick in
moisture/instability and deep layer shear could even support a few
strong to marginally severe storms late Saturday.

The primary shortwave may be exiting to the east by late Sunday,
but a weak surface boundary sagging into the South Plains along
with residual moisture could be enough to support additional storm
development locally. This will be the case into Monday and Tuesday
as well as a more limited fetch of monsoon moisture may still
reside nearby too and a weak mid-level disturbance or two may
graze the region from the north. All in all, at least low storm
chances will persist in the region right on into early next week.
This could even be the case into the middle of next week, though
at the moment the ridge is progged to build back closer to home
making storm development/coverage less certain. Given this we have
maintained lower unmentionable 10 PoPs by Wednesday. This is very
close to what was already in the forecast and only minor adjustments
were made through the extended.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99




000
FXUS64 KLUB 301105 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
605 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
A line of thunderstorms is currently moving through the KCDS
terminal and should be through the TAF site in a couple of hours.
Other showers were in the vicinity of KPVW and while they haven`t
produce lightning recently, there is still a possibility and will
continue a VCTS comment this morning. The only site that has not
received storms is KLBB and this should remain the case through
early afternoon. There will likely be another round of storms this
afternoon into early evening but confidence on timing and location
is too low to include at this time. Outside and away from storms,
VFR conditions will continue with a light wind gradually
transitioning to the south to southeast late in the day.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Another morning...another round of thunderstorms across portions of
the forecast area as well as questions as to how long they will last
and what impact it will have on the forecast for this afternoon and
evening.  00Z upper-air analysis shows the region still on the
eastern side of a dirty ridge that was centered over New Mexico.
Ample moisture remains trapped under the ridge with no indications
or hints of anything that could help spark the current storms.
Models are once again of little help as there is considerable spread
on storms being forecast or the models being dry.  The HRRR, RAP,
and ARW are the three that do have precipitation and they seem to
keep it confined across the northern row of counties through
sunrise.  They then generate more widespread precipitation by this
afternoon as far south as Lubbock. Difficult to see how this will
play out as the models start to push the center of the ridge towards
the forecast area and across it tonight so subsidence should be on
the increase through the day.  The regional and national models keep
precipitation out of the forecast for this afternoon so will keep a
mention of isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through mid-
morning across the northern half of the forecast area based on
current trends.

Will then keep a dry forecast through late afternoon before another
round of isolated storms for 21-00Z Friday in case anything is able
to develop like we saw yesterday afternoon. Confidence in the PoP
forecast remains pretty low because of how things are unfolding and
how poorly the models have done with coverage of precipitation the
last few days.  Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer as the
ridge starts to move over the area but ample moisture and remnant
cloud cover keep things from warming up too much.

Jordan

LONG TERM...
The upper ridge that has been centered to our west recently is still
on track to migrate east-southeastward over the next few days. This
will place the center of the ridge briefly overhead early Friday,
though it is progged to quickly shift to the eastern part of the
state Friday night and then over the northern Gulf of Mexico
thereafter where it will bridge with low amplitude ridging into
northern Mexico through the first part of next week. After Friday
this will keep West Texas on the southern fringe of quasi-zonal mid-
upper level flow that will carry the occasional embedded
disturbance.

As the upper high passes over on Friday we will likely see dry
and hot conditions (as our northerly to north-northwesterly
steering flow that has kept convection occasionally making a run
into the CWA will be no more) with highs in the middle and upper
90s common. The heat will persist right on through the remainder
of the extended. However, as the upper ridge shifts east monsoonal
moisture will bend northeastward over the region and when coupled
with a shortwave trough emerging from the southern Rockies on
Saturday we will see storm chances increase. In fact we could even
see a little convection attempt to leak out of New Mexico into the
western zones as early as Friday night. A slight uptick in
moisture/instability and deep layer shear could even support a few
strong to marginally severe storms late Saturday.

The primary shortwave may be exiting to the east by late Sunday,
but a weak surface boundary sagging into the South Plains along
with residual moisture could be enough to support additional storm
development locally. This will be the case into Monday and Tuesday
as well as a more limited fetch of monsoon moisture may still
reside nearby too and a weak mid-level disturbance or two may
graze the region from the north. All in all, at least low storm
chances will persist in the region right on into early next week.
This could even be the case into the middle of next week, though
at the moment the ridge is progged to build back closer to home
making storm development/coverage less certain. Given this we have
maintained lower unmentionable 10 PoPs by Wednesday. This is very
close to what was already in the forecast and only minor adjustments
were made through the extended.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301055
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
555 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions will prevail today through Friday morning.
However, FEW-SCT MVFR level clouds and patchy BR with MVFR VSBYs
are possible during the early morning hours. Sustained winds will
be less than 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Water vapor imagery is showing drier air being advected into South
Central Texas at midlevels tonight on the eastern periphery of
mid-to-upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners region. A
weak shortwave moving into northern California and digging into
Arizona on Friday will help move the upper level ridge east today
into New Mexico and west Texas for Friday. Thus, the only trigger
for convection besides a weak sea breeze will be a dissipating
outflow boundary located just south of the CWA that is currently
producing weak convection near Laredo and some isolated storms just
off the upper Texas Gulf Coast. This boundary may help generate
isolated thunderstorms today along and south of Highway 90, but
in general coverage is too low to warrant mentioning in the grids
except for our far southeastern counties in the Coastal Plains
where the sea breeze may help a few storms sneak in. A repeat is
expected for Friday with a smaller portion of the Coastal Plains
having a chance for isolated storms as drier air and subsidence
from the approaching ridge further decreases instability and
increases temperatures a few degrees above seasonal normals.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
The aforementioned ridge will remain centered over Texas this
weekend, but will be weakened a bit by the shortwave as it lifts
out of Arizona into the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma. By Sunday,
a surface trough developing in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle
will help increase southerly flow across South Central Texas that
will advect in additional Gulf moisture but generally not produce
storms given increasing stability and dry air aloft. This will
make it more difficult for the boundary layer to mix down drier
air aloft to provide some relief from humid conditions at the
surface, which will cause heat indices to rise into the 105-110
range for areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. Once
the shortwave completely passes to our north on Monday, a broader
subtropical ridge centered around Texas reasserts itself with no
clear end in sight and temperatures increasing into the upper 90s
and lower 100s for most of the region through at least the middle
of next week. This will likely set up a very hot and fairly humid
period without rainfall through at least the end of next week that
will have to be monitored for potential heat advisories.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  75  96  76  97 /  -   -   -   -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  72  95  74  97 /  -   -   -   -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  73  96  74  97 /  10  -   -   -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            94  74  94  75  95 /  -    0  -   -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           99  76  98  77 100 /  -    0  -    0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  74  95  76  96 /  -    0  -   -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             94  72  95  75  97 /  10  -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  73  94  74  96 /  10  -   -   -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  75  95  76  95 /  10  -   10  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  75  95  77  96 /  10  -   -   -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           97  76  97  77  98 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 301055
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
555 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions will prevail today through Friday morning.
However, FEW-SCT MVFR level clouds and patchy BR with MVFR VSBYs
are possible during the early morning hours. Sustained winds will
be less than 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Water vapor imagery is showing drier air being advected into South
Central Texas at midlevels tonight on the eastern periphery of
mid-to-upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners region. A
weak shortwave moving into northern California and digging into
Arizona on Friday will help move the upper level ridge east today
into New Mexico and west Texas for Friday. Thus, the only trigger
for convection besides a weak sea breeze will be a dissipating
outflow boundary located just south of the CWA that is currently
producing weak convection near Laredo and some isolated storms just
off the upper Texas Gulf Coast. This boundary may help generate
isolated thunderstorms today along and south of Highway 90, but
in general coverage is too low to warrant mentioning in the grids
except for our far southeastern counties in the Coastal Plains
where the sea breeze may help a few storms sneak in. A repeat is
expected for Friday with a smaller portion of the Coastal Plains
having a chance for isolated storms as drier air and subsidence
from the approaching ridge further decreases instability and
increases temperatures a few degrees above seasonal normals.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
The aforementioned ridge will remain centered over Texas this
weekend, but will be weakened a bit by the shortwave as it lifts
out of Arizona into the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma. By Sunday,
a surface trough developing in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle
will help increase southerly flow across South Central Texas that
will advect in additional Gulf moisture but generally not produce
storms given increasing stability and dry air aloft. This will
make it more difficult for the boundary layer to mix down drier
air aloft to provide some relief from humid conditions at the
surface, which will cause heat indices to rise into the 105-110
range for areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. Once
the shortwave completely passes to our north on Monday, a broader
subtropical ridge centered around Texas reasserts itself with no
clear end in sight and temperatures increasing into the upper 90s
and lower 100s for most of the region through at least the middle
of next week. This will likely set up a very hot and fairly humid
period without rainfall through at least the end of next week that
will have to be monitored for potential heat advisories.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  75  96  76  97 /  -   -   -   -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  72  95  74  97 /  -   -   -   -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  73  96  74  97 /  10  -   -   -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            94  74  94  75  95 /  -    0  -   -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           99  76  98  77 100 /  -    0  -    0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  74  95  76  96 /  -    0  -   -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             94  72  95  75  97 /  10  -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  73  94  74  96 /  10  -   -   -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  75  95  76  95 /  10  -   10  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  75  95  77  96 /  10  -   -   -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           97  76  97  77  98 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...LH




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 300956
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
356 AM MDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air has moved back over the region temporarily for today.
Skies will be generally mostly sunny with some fair weather
clouds. Moisture remains over far southwestern New Mexico so
isolated storms are still expected over the area mountains and
areas west of the continental divide. Temperatures will be very
near seasonal average. Friday and Saturday a big increase in
moisture for the region as a pacific trough moves deep moisture
back in from the west. There should be widespread clouds, showers,
and thunderstorms mid-day Friday through Saturday. We dry back out
again Sunday and Monday onward as high pressure builds bringing
back 100 degree afternoon across the lowlands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Flow around the upper high pressure feature anchored over the
southwestern states continues to dry the airmass over S NM and Far
W TX. Our atmosphere is also warming aloft. This means a more
stable atmosphere with less moisture.. The 00z EPZ sounding showed
a big drop from 12Z 1.34" PW...to just 0.96" PW this evening. That
should be enough to significantly limit or eliminate convective
activity for all areas east of the Continental Divide. Of course
the area remains conditionally right on the brink of convection, so
it would only take an outflow boundary to get the area started.
The forecast for pcpn/storms today will show scattered potential
west over western Grant and Hidalgo counties, and dry most
elsewhere except isolated over the Sacs.

Friday begins a BIG "re"-moistening as an upper trough moves east
across AZ and pushes the deep moisture channel back into our CWFA,
especially over the western 1/2 of our area. PW`s creep back up to
near 1.5". The trough will also help to cut the stability aloft
with cooler temps and PVA to provide some forcing aloft. Thus the
region will go back to a moist and unstable state. Plenty of
clouds should keep temps cooler. PCPN/Storm chances will be back
in the 30-60% range for scattered coverage all zones from FRI
aftn through SAT aftn.

Sunday drier air works back in most of our region. Still a bit of
residual moisture will linger under a building ridge of high
pressure, but the deeper moisture will be to our east. Thus much
lower POPs, but with continued slight chances for most areas.
Monday onward high pressure builds. Temperatures look to climb
back to around 100 degrees each day next week across the lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 30/12Z-01/12Z.
Lesser moisture over the region today and better stability aloft.
Thus fewer clouds and only slight chance to isolated shwr/tstm
for most areas east of the Continental Divide. Isolated to scattered
coverage over the divide and to the west aft 18z until 06z. Skies
gnly 060-080SCT 100-40SCT AND 250SCT-BKN. Isold areas VRB25-35KT
3-6SM -TSRA BKN050 BKN100. Winds gnly S to SE 8-13 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air has moved over the area as the main moisture channel has
shifted west over Arizona. Dewpoints are still up, but moisture
is now fairly shallow. This means generally fair weather clouds
with sunshine. RH mins will struggle to drop into the teens today.
Expect few to no storms for most areas today...especially
lowlands east of the continental divide. Highlands, especially the
divide and west will still see at least isolated storms after
daytime heating today. A big increase in moisture for Friday and
Saturday resulting in numerous showers and thunderstorms both days
as the moisture moves back in from Arizona with a passing trough.
Sunday and Monday onward the moisture shifts east with high
pressure building aloft over the area. This will mean warmer and
drier to start next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 96  73  91  72 /   0   0  40  50
Sierra Blanca           92  68  89  67 /   0   0  20  60
Las Cruces              94  68  88  67 /   0   0  60  50
Alamogordo              95  69  90  69 /  10  10  50  50
Cloudcroft              73  53  69  53 /  10  30  70  90
Truth or Consequences   92  68  87  66 /  10   0  50  50
Silver City             86  62  79  61 /  30  30  70  40
Deming                  94  68  85  66 /  10  20  60  40
Lordsburg               90  66  85  65 /  30  30  70  30
West El Paso Metro      96  74  91  72 /   0   0  40  50
Dell City               96  67  93  67 /   0   0  10  60
Fort Hancock            96  72  93  71 /   0   0  30  50
Loma Linda              91  67  86  66 /   0   0  40  60
Fabens                  96  71  92  70 /   0   0  40  50
Santa Teresa            96  70  90  69 /   0   0  60  50
White Sands HQ          94  71  88  70 /   0   0  40  50
Jornada Range           94  66  87  65 /   0   0  60  50
Hatch                   96  68  89  66 /   0   0  60  50
Columbus                95  69  87  68 /  10  20  60  50
Orogrande               95  70  90  70 /   0   0  40  50
Mayhill                 81  56  77  55 /  10  20  50  80
Mescalero               82  55  77  55 /  10  30  60  80
Timberon                80  53  75  54 /  10  20  50  80
Winston                 83  56  78  55 /  20  20  70  60
Hillsboro               90  64  84  62 /  20  10  70  50
Spaceport               93  67  86  65 /  10   0  60  50
Lake Roberts            87  53  81  53 /  50  30  80  50
Hurley                  87  62  80  61 /  30  30  70  40
Cliff                   90  57  84  57 /  30  40  70  50
Mule Creek              87  53  82  54 /  50  50  70  50
Faywood                 90  62  82  61 /  30  20  70  40
Animas                  91  66  85  64 /  30  30  70  40
Hachita                 92  65  84  65 /  20  30  70  40
Antelope Wells          89  64  83  63 /  30  30  60  50
Cloverdale              84  62  78  62 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14-BIRD




000
FXUS64 KAMA 300915
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
415 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.Discussion...
Thunderstorms have persisted overnight as an MCS moving southeast
over Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, split apart and both pieces
have continued diving southeast through the Panhandles. Isentropic
lift on the 315 surface has aided in the maintenance of this system.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue development this
morning near the New Mexico/Texas state line and push east southeast
through the area. A break in activity is expected in the early
afternoon, which will allow for diabatic heating to bring more
instability to the area for another round of thunderstorms in the
late afternoon to evening. Deep layer shear is weak and PWAT values
are around 1.0, so slow moving storms could lead to localized
flooding concerns.

The models have not been consist from run to run as Friday now looks
to have the area dry slotted, so have decreased pops some but didn`t
want to fully remove until more consistency is achieved. A cold front
looks to push through the Panhandles Saturday and bring widespread
chances at showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening. Precip looks
to linger in the area Sunday morning before the front completely
pushes out of the area. The combination of a low level jet Saturday
night into Sunday and the passage of a shortwave will enhance lift
in the region. With effective bulk shear around 30 kts and MLCAPE
only around 1000J or less, storms should stay below severe levels.

Models start varying greatly after Sunday on the upper level flow
pattern, which affects the timing of the next shortwave. For now,
stayed with a model blend in the extended period. If the GFS solution
plays out, the 4th of July could see severe weather as it depicts
30 to 40kts of shear and 1500 to 2000 J of CAPE, making supercells
possible. Other models are not as optimistic on CAPE and the ECMWF
holds back the shortwave until Tuesday. What does look clear for next
week is that chances for precip start decreasing and temps will be
on the rise again with 100s back in the forecast by mid-week.

Beat

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                93  67  95  69  94 /  30  20  10  10  30
Beaver OK                  93  67  95  69  93 /  40  50  30  30  40
Boise City OK              95  64  91  65  87 /  40  40  30  30  50
Borger TX                  94  71  97  73  95 /  40  20  10  20  40
Boys Ranch TX              97  67  98  70  94 /  30  20  10  20  40
Canyon TX                  94  67  95  69  94 /  30  10   5  10  30
Clarendon TX               92  67  94  71  95 /  20  10  10  10  30
Dalhart TX                 96  64  95  66  91 /  40  30  20  30  40
Guymon OK                  95  67  94  69  90 /  40  40  20  30  40
Hereford TX                94  65  94  69  94 /  20  10   5  10  40
Lipscomb TX                92  67  96  70  93 /  40  40  20  20  30
Pampa TX                   91  67  94  68  93 /  40  20  10  20  30
Shamrock TX                93  69  95  72  96 /  30  20  10  10  30
Wellington TX              95  71  97  73  97 /  20  10  10   5  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/16




000
FXUS64 KEWX 300907
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
407 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Water vapor imagery is showing drier air being advected into South
Central Texas at midlevels tonight on the eastern periphery of
mid-to-upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners region. A
weak shortwave moving into northern California and digging into
Arizona on Friday will help move the upper level ridge east today
into New Mexico and west Texas for Friday. Thus, the only trigger
for convection besides a weak sea breeze will be a dissipating
outflow boundary located just south of the CWA that is currently
producing weak convection near Laredo and some isolated storms just
off the upper Texas Gulf Coast. This boundary may help generate
isolated thunderstorms today along and south of Highway 90, but
in general coverage is too low to warrant mentioning in the grids
except for our far southeastern counties in the Coastal Plains
where the sea breeze may help a few storms sneak in. A repeat is
expected for Friday with a smaller portion of the Coastal Plains
having a chance for isolated storms as drier air and subsidence
from the approaching ridge further decreases instability and
increases temperatures a few degrees above seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
The aforementioned ridge will remain centered over Texas this
weekend, but will be weakened a bit by the shortwave as it lifts
out of Arizona into the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma. By Sunday,
a surface trough developing in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle
will help increase southerly flow across South Central Texas that
will advect in additional Gulf moisture but generally not produce
storms given increasing stability and dry air aloft. This will
make it more difficult for the boundary layer to mix down drier
air aloft to provide some relief from humid conditions at the
surface, which will cause heat indices to rise into the 105-110
range for areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. Once
the shortwave completely passes to our north on Monday, a broader
subtropical ridge centered around Texas reasserts itself with no
clear end in sight and temperatures increasing into the upper 90s
and lower 100s for most of the region through at least the middle
of next week. This will likely set up a very hot and fairly humid
period without rainfall through at least the end of next week that
will have to be monitored for potential heat advisories.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  75  96  76  97 /  -   -   -   -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  72  95  74  97 /  -   -   -   -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  73  96  74  97 /  10  -   -   -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            94  74  94  75  95 /  -    0  -   -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           99  76  98  77 100 /  -    0  -    0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  74  95  76  96 /  -    0  -   -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             94  72  95  75  97 /  10  -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  73  94  74  96 /  10  -   -   -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  75  95  76  95 /  10  -   10  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  75  95  77  96 /  10  -   -   -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           97  76  97  77  98 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...LH




000
FXUS64 KMAF 300902
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
402 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Thursday...Satl imagery is showing
several clusters of thunderstorms in the Northern TX Panhandle.
These convective clusters are moving southeast...but should
dissipate before reaching the CWA.

Upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will build east
today. This should provide enough subsidence to quash most
thunderstorm chances...but there could still be a storm or two
over the Davis Mtns this aftn. A weak trof along the CA coast will
translate east turning the flow to the west on Friday. This could
allow deeper monsoonal moisture and weak lift to move east into
the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns leading to a better chance of
thunderstorms in the higher terrain. Temps today and Friday will
be near seasonal normals.

A weak trof remains over the Southern Plains for the Independence
Day holiday weekend keeping the ridge flattened. This will
continue the slt chc/chc of thunderstorms over the higher
terrain...with even a slt chc over the Plains. The thermal ridge
will also push east...with temps a little above normal. Temps
could reach 100 across the Plains...near 105 in the Pecos and Rio
Grande River Valleys...and 90s in the mountains. Little change in
sensible weather is expected thru at least the middle of next week
as weak trofs ripple across the Southern Plains.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       96  68  95  71 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  95  71  95  72 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 88  67  87  67 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          88  62  86  63 /  10  10  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           95  71  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         94  71  95  74 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           98  72  98  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/33




000
FXUS64 KBRO 300859
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
359 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): A deep 500 mb trough over the
eastern United States will remain extended into the western Gulf of
Mexico today and tonight. Coupled with deep tropical moisture,
featuring precipitable water values near 2 inches, another round of
isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for the BRO CWFA
today, with streamer activity over the Lower Texas coastal waters
tonight. The shifting of the mid-level trough into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, and 500 mb high pressure becoming centered over Texas,
will usher in dry weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley on Friday. Well above normal temperatures are anticipated
through the period. In fact, inherited daytime highs were retained
while overnight lows for tonight appeared too cool and were
increased a few degrees.

&&

.Long Term (Friday night through Wedensday): Mid level ridging (592
dam) will set up over the Gulf and Texas initially, supporting high
pressure (1012 to 1016 mb) at the surface over the Gulf. Hot and dry
weather will be the result for much of the long term. Rain chances
will remain limited during the long term while temperatures creep
higher. Highs in the upper 80s can be expected at the beach, with
lower 90s along the coast, to a handful of degrees above the century
mark out west each afternoon. Afternoon heat index values will
register in the 100 to 105 degree range just after noon along the
coast, and from 105 to 110 degrees inland, with a few marks of up to
113 degrees, especially across Starr County, thus threatening heat
advisory conditions. The aforementioned pattern should hold through
the long term, with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and moderate
to fresh southeast winds. Low temps will be in the upper 70s to near
80.

&&

.MARINE:
Now through Friday: Buoy 42020 reported south winds around 8
knots with seas less than 1 foot with a period of 4 seconds at 02
CDT/07 UTC. Persistent weak low pressure centered over the
northwest Gulf of Mexico will dissipate and transition to weak
high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico. The result of this
weather pattern will be mainly light winds and low seas for the
Lower Texas coastal waters during the forecast period.

Friday night through Monday...Moderate southeast winds and low to
moderate seas will persist through Sunday as broad high pressure
covers the Gulf. Wind strength will increase Sunday through Monday
due to a tighter gradient, resulting in building seas. Small craft
exercise caution to low end small craft advisory conditions will
be possible Sunday through Monday with southeast winds becoming
moderate to fresh. Seas will also build to between moderate and
high on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  93  79  93  80 /  20   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          94  79  95  79 /  20   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            96  77  97  78 /  20   0   0   0
MCALLEN              99  78  99  79 /  20   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     101  78 102  79 /  20   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  81  89  81 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66/54/65




000
FXUS64 KCRP 300858
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
358 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...

Another morning another weak surface trough extending from portions
of South Texas eastward across the Gulf waters towards LA. More
scattered convection has developed along this boundary over the Gulf
waters though not nearly as vigorous as we saw 24 hours ago. Still
carry chance PoPs across the coastal waters and portions of the
Coastal Bend later this morning spreading into the mid-afternoon
hours. Highest MLCAPE values are progged to be around 2500 j/kg
along the coast and immediate inland areas so the seabreeze boundary
could be more active today than days past. With very weak flow aloft
any storms will be slow to move and could drop a decent amount of
rain quickly before becoming outflow dominant. The outflows will
lead to potentially more convection inland with the help of the weak
surface trough as it slides ever so slightly southward. Heat index
values will once again be around 105 to 109 degrees across much the
region with possibly excluding Victoria Crossroads where more cloud
cover and slightly cooler temperatures will be.

Somewhat drier air works into the region from the north-northwest on
Friday as both surface and mid-level ridging move closer. We
continue to confine our PoPs across the northern Coastal Bend where
the higher moisture axis will remain. Again expecting another weak
surface trough to be across the region combining with seabreeze
interactions to develop mostly late morning and afternoon
convection.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...

...Dangerous Heat Conditions Expected Over 4th of July Weekend...

Little change of significance was made to the extended forecast
tonight. Elongated and strong subtropical ridge will greatly
influence South Texas weather over the weekend and into next week
with hot and dry conditions prevailing. An increase in overall
thermal profile will preclude much /if any/ precip from developing.
Best chances /very low at that/ may be a few nocturnal showers along
the immediate coast over the weekend. Biggest weather concern will
be the increase in heat and humidity across the region. Afternoon
highs nearly each day will be in the upper 90s across the inland
Coastal Plains and greater than 100 degrees across the Brush
Country. Add in some higher dewpoints than what we have had most of
this week and heat indices should reach/exceed 110 degrees across
portions of the region for a period of several days. Of interest is
an unseasonably strong southerly LLJ that is prog to develop over
the weekend and early next week as cyclogenesis occurs across the
Plains. This should result in breezy/windy conditions each day...but
also delay the passage of the seabreeze...which in turn will allow
for hotter temps to materialize. Overall...confidence is increasing
in Heat Advisories needing to be issued for portions of the region
at some point over the Holiday Weekend. Currently...Sunday through
Wednesday are forecast to be the hottest and most humid days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  76  95  78  97  /  20  10  10  10  10
Victoria          94  74  95  76  95  /  20  10  20  10  10
Laredo            99  78 102  80 103  /  10  10   0   0   0
Alice             98  74  98  76  99  /  20  10  10  10  10
Rockport          91  79  93  80  93  /  20  10  20  10  10
Cotulla          101  76 101  76 102  /  10  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        96  75  96  78  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       92  79  91  80  92  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KSJT 300852
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
352 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper ridging over New Mexico will continue to build
southeastward into West Central Texas today and tonight. This
will suppress shower and thunderstorm development. Temperatures
will climb a degree or two from yesterday, to highs in the 92 to
96 range, with lows in the lower 70s tonight.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)

Very little change was needed for the long term from the previous
forecast.

The upper level high pressure area currently over New Mexico and
Arizona will be centered over central Texas, on its way southeast
into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Friday night into Saturday, the
ridge will start to break down in our area as shortwave energy
moves into west Texas. As this shortwave energy moves across the
Caprock and Panhandle areas, it will also bring some mid and upper
level moisture with it. This will likely result in scattered
showers and thunderstorms to our west and northwest from Saturday
night into Tuesday, with a few of these storms possibly affecting
our western and northern counties. Although models do not indicate
a lot of precipitation for our area, should these clusters of
storms develop to our northwest, they could organize into MCS`s
Sunday or Monday night, and move southeast into our area,
especially if the nocturnal low level jet intensifies. So, these
PoPs could be increased in subsequent forecasts.

Otherwise, temperatures are still expected to be warmer from the
weekend into early next week, with hot temperatures expected for
Independence Day.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  73  94  74 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  94  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  95  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 300827
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
327 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Some shower and isolated thunderstorm activity has developed near the
coast early this morning mainly in and around the Galveston Bay area
and further off to the east across the Texas and Louisiana coastal waters.
Models continue to indicate more development near and along the coast
during the remaining overnight and morning hours with activity possibly
spreading inland during the day. Made little change to the area`s rain
chances with lower values inland and higher values near the coast and
offshore. Still expecting decreasing rain coverage heading into the
holiday weekend as mid/upper level high pressure builds across the area.
Besides the near zero rain chances, this ridge will also bring gradually
warming temperatures to the area into next week with highs working their
way into the mid to upper 90s while lows possibly struggle to fall under
80 degrees. Still anticipating daily heat index values edging upward
into a 100-110 degree range beginning on Sunday, and we`ll be closely
monitoring these values for possible heat advisories.  42
&&

.MARINE...
A near non-existent pressure gradient over the local waters, along
with a weak offshore boundary and any passing shower or storm`s gust
front, will maintain these current variable breezes over sub 2 foot
seas through week`s close. Lowering western Texas pressures, in
relation with eastern Gulf high pressure, will tighten the weekend
onshore pressure gradient. Gulf southerlies will respond in
strengthening to caution levels early next week. Weekend 2-3 foot
seas will pick up to 4-5 foot seas/slightly choppy bays by Monday
(4th of July) and maintain at least 3-4 foot average heights through
next week. Enough atmospheric instability exists to keep moderate
shower and storm chances in place through tomorrow. A dry weather
pattern will commence Saturday with near nil precipitation chances
as regional high pressure at all levels asserts itself through the
holiday weekend. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      94  75  95  76  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              95  76  95  77  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            90  81  91  82  91 /  30  10  30  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31




000
FXUS64 KFWD 300821
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
321 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge centered over New Mexico will develop
southeastward across Texas over the next couple of days, bringing
hot and dry weather to North and Central Texas through the
weekend. Meanwhile, a weak mid level trough continues to generate
convection over Arizona. As the ridge builds southeast, the trough
will propagate anticyclonically around its western and northern
periphery. Over the weekend, the ridge will flatten and elongate
west to east from northern Mexico to Florida as flow becomes zonal
across the CONUS. This will allow the trough to translate east
across the Central and Southern Plains Sunday into Monday.

Forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave trough will be
sufficient for the development of showers and storms across
northwest Texas and Oklahoma during the day Sunday. Convection
should be initially focused along a weak front extending from West
TX into the Central Plains. Activity will likely spread eastward
across the Red River region Sunday night. Convection should
attempt to back-build southwestward, along either the front or
outflow from earlier convection, Sunday night into Monday morning.
However, the southern edge of these showers and storms will be
shut off as they encounter strong subsidence from the larger scale
upper ridge. This exact southern extent will be in question, but
the most recent guidance warrants at least slight chance POPs
extended down to roughly the I-20 corridor Sunday night and early
Monday. Rain chances should then shift east of the region by early
Monday evening, leaving the region dry in time for Fourth of July
festivities.

Outside of convective weather, hot and humid conditions can be
expected this weekend through most of next week. Afternoon heat
indices will approach 105 in many locations during this time. This
means that borderline heat advisory conditions will occur Sunday
through next week. Even if heat advisory criteria is not
technically met, folks should take precautions with regard to
outdoor activities during the holiday weekend, namely drinking
plenty of water and refraining from over-exertion. Also, remember
to check the backseat of your car and keep it locked to prevent
kids from entering and playing in the automobile.

By the end of the forecast period, the upper level pattern is
expected to look very similar to the current pattern, which is
upper ridging across the western and central parts of the country
and upper troughing across the east.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 719 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/
/00Z TAFs/

The showers and storms across western portions of North Texas have
already begun to diminish in intensity. With little daylight
remaining, additional development on approaching outflow looks
unlikely. No significant impacts to northwest arrivals are
expected, and the activity will remain well west of Metroplex TAF
sites. Increasing subsidence should preclude any daytime
convection on Thursday.

There is now a southerly component to the winds across the
Metroplex, within which the commercial airports will remain in
south flow. Waco has been slower to veer, but southeast winds will
be in place across Central Texas by Thursday morning.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  78  97  78  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
Waco                96  75  96  76  96 /   0   0  10   5   5
Paris               94  73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10   5   5
Denton              95  74  95  75  96 /  10   5  10   5   5
McKinney            95  74  95  75  94 /  10   5  10   5   5
Dallas              97  79  97  79  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
Terrell             95  75  96  75  95 /   5   5  10   5   5
Corsicana           97  75  97  76  96 /   0   5  10   5   5
Temple              95  73  95  74  95 /   0   0   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       95  72  96  73  97 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLUB 300815
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
315 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Another morning...another round of thunderstorms across portions of
the forecast area as well as questions as to how long they will last
and what impact it will have on the forecast for this afternoon and
evening.  00Z upper-air analysis shows the region still on the
eastern side of a dirty ridge that was centered over New Mexico.
Ample moisture remains trapped under the ridge with no indications
or hints of anything that could help spark the current storms.
Models are once again of little help as there is considerable spread
on storms being forecast or the models being dry.  The HRRR, RAP,
and ARW are the three that do have precipitation and they seem to
keep it confined across the northern row of counties through
sunrise.  They then generate more widespread precipitation by this
afternoon as far south as Lubbock. Difficult to see how this will
play out as the models start to push the center of the ridge towards
the forecast area and across it tonight so subsidence should be on
the increase through the day.  The regional and national models keep
precipitation out of the forecast for this afternoon so will keep a
mention of isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through mid-
morning across the northern half of the forecast area based on
current trends.

Will then keep a dry forecast through late afternoon before another
round of isolated storms for 21-00Z Friday in case anything is able
to develop like we saw yesterday afternoon. Confidence in the PoP
forecast remains pretty low because of how things are unfolding and
how poorly the models have done with coverage of precipitation the
last few days.  Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer as the
ridge starts to move over the area but ample moisture and remnant
cloud cover keep things from warming up too much.

Jordan

.LONG TERM...
The upper ridge that has been centered to our west recently is still
on track to migrate east-southeastward over the next few days. This
will place the center of the ridge briefly overhead early Friday,
though it is progged to quickly shift to the eastern part of the
state Friday night and then over the northern Gulf of Mexico
thereafter where it will bridge with low amplitude ridging into
northern Mexico through the first part of next week. After Friday
this will keep West Texas on the southern fringe of quasi-zonal mid-
upper level flow that will carry the occasional embedded
disturbance.

As the upper high passes over on Friday we will likely see dry
and hot conditions (as our northerly to north-northwesterly
steering flow that has kept convection occasionally making a run
into the CWA will be no more) with highs in the middle and upper
90s common. The heat will persist right on through the remainder
of the extended. However, as the upper ridge shifts east monsoonal
moisture will bend northeastward over the region and when coupled
with a shortwave trough emerging from the southern Rockies on
Saturday we will see storm chances increase. In fact we could even
see a little convection attempt to leak out of New Mexico into the
western zones as early as Friday night. A slight uptick in
moisture/instability and deep layer shear could even support a few
strong to marginally severe storms late Saturday.

The primary shortwave may be exiting to the east by late Sunday,
but a weak surface boundary sagging into the South Plains along
with residual moisture could be enough to support additional storm
development locally. This will be the case into Monday and Tuesday
as well as a more limited fetch of monsoon moisture may still
reside nearby too and a weak mid-level disturbance or two may
graze the region from the north. All in all, at least low storm
chances will persist in the region right on into early next week.
This could even be the case into the middle of next week, though
at the moment the ridge is progged to build back closer to home
making storm development/coverage less certain. Given this we have
maintained lower unmentionable 10 PoPs by Wednesday. This is very
close to what was already in the forecast and only minor adjustments
were made through the extended.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

14/23




000
FXUS64 KLUB 300815
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
315 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Another morning...another round of thunderstorms across portions of
the forecast area as well as questions as to how long they will last
and what impact it will have on the forecast for this afternoon and
evening.  00Z upper-air analysis shows the region still on the
eastern side of a dirty ridge that was centered over New Mexico.
Ample moisture remains trapped under the ridge with no indications
or hints of anything that could help spark the current storms.
Models are once again of little help as there is considerable spread
on storms being forecast or the models being dry.  The HRRR, RAP,
and ARW are the three that do have precipitation and they seem to
keep it confined across the northern row of counties through
sunrise.  They then generate more widespread precipitation by this
afternoon as far south as Lubbock. Difficult to see how this will
play out as the models start to push the center of the ridge towards
the forecast area and across it tonight so subsidence should be on
the increase through the day.  The regional and national models keep
precipitation out of the forecast for this afternoon so will keep a
mention of isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through mid-
morning across the northern half of the forecast area based on
current trends.

Will then keep a dry forecast through late afternoon before another
round of isolated storms for 21-00Z Friday in case anything is able
to develop like we saw yesterday afternoon. Confidence in the PoP
forecast remains pretty low because of how things are unfolding and
how poorly the models have done with coverage of precipitation the
last few days.  Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer as the
ridge starts to move over the area but ample moisture and remnant
cloud cover keep things from warming up too much.

Jordan

.LONG TERM...
The upper ridge that has been centered to our west recently is still
on track to migrate east-southeastward over the next few days. This
will place the center of the ridge briefly overhead early Friday,
though it is progged to quickly shift to the eastern part of the
state Friday night and then over the northern Gulf of Mexico
thereafter where it will bridge with low amplitude ridging into
northern Mexico through the first part of next week. After Friday
this will keep West Texas on the southern fringe of quasi-zonal mid-
upper level flow that will carry the occasional embedded
disturbance.

As the upper high passes over on Friday we will likely see dry
and hot conditions (as our northerly to north-northwesterly
steering flow that has kept convection occasionally making a run
into the CWA will be no more) with highs in the middle and upper
90s common. The heat will persist right on through the remainder
of the extended. However, as the upper ridge shifts east monsoonal
moisture will bend northeastward over the region and when coupled
with a shortwave trough emerging from the southern Rockies on
Saturday we will see storm chances increase. In fact we could even
see a little convection attempt to leak out of New Mexico into the
western zones as early as Friday night. A slight uptick in
moisture/instability and deep layer shear could even support a few
strong to marginally severe storms late Saturday.

The primary shortwave may be exiting to the east by late Sunday,
but a weak surface boundary sagging into the South Plains along
with residual moisture could be enough to support additional storm
development locally. This will be the case into Monday and Tuesday
as well as a more limited fetch of monsoon moisture may still
reside nearby too and a weak mid-level disturbance or two may
graze the region from the north. All in all, at least low storm
chances will persist in the region right on into early next week.
This could even be the case into the middle of next week, though
at the moment the ridge is progged to build back closer to home
making storm development/coverage less certain. Given this we have
maintained lower unmentionable 10 PoPs by Wednesday. This is very
close to what was already in the forecast and only minor adjustments
were made through the extended.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

14/23




000
FXUS64 KCRP 300557
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1257 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 06Z aviation cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

This morning...Mostly VFR. A few pockets of MVFR cigs and patchy
fog are possible closer to daybreak, otherwise we should remain
VFR with light and variable winds. High confidence.

Today...VFR. Expecting even less coverage in afternoon showers and
thunder than we experienced on Wednesday but the potential still
exists so we continue with the VCSH through the late afternoon
hours. Winds remain mostly out of the southeasterly before
backing a bit more to the east later this evening.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 935 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...Convection over the Rio Grande Plains continues to
diminish this evening with some isolated showers and storms over
the Victoria Crossroads. Low pops were retained for the rest of
through 6z for the activity currently ongoing, with 20 pops after
6z to account for convection moving in off the Gulf Waters.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast appears on track at this time
with only minor edits needed to hourly grids.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

A E-W oriented weak/quasi-stationary boundary persists across the
CWA/MSA per weak MSAS MSLP field with convection developing along
it. Expect convection to dissipate before 03Z Thursday when
considering NAM deterministic CIN values. Concur with the GFS
deterministic that the upper ridge to the NW will slowly build
over the CWA/MSA during the period while the upper trough axis
over the WRN Gulf slowly moves East. ECMWF/NAM/GFS deterministic
maintain the weak/quasi-stationary E-W boundary across the ERN
CWA/MSA at least until Thursday afternoon. The NAM deterministic
maintain above normal PWAT values over the ERN CWA and below
normal West. Anticipate that the combination of significant
moisture and moisture convergence along the boundary will
contribute to noctural convection over the MSA after 06Z
Thursday...then isolated/scattered convection over the ERN CWA/MSA
after 15Z Thursday...yet limited owing to weak upper subsidence.
Isolated convection may develop again over the MSA after 06Z
Friday.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

A hot and humid holiday weekend is expected with isold sea breeze
convection possible on Friday. Latest model runs prog a mid level
inverted trof to be draped across the region on Friday. This trof
combined with sufficient moisture is expected to result in isold
convection along the sea breeze. High pressure is progd to build
across the area through the weekend with little to no chance of
precip and very hot temps. Highs are expected to reach around 105
across the western CWA and around 100 for areas west of highway
281 by Sat and continuing into the first part of next week. Heat
indices may approach 110 at times which is Heat Advisory criteria,
but will generally be 105 to 109 each day. Surface winds are
expected to strengthen to moderate levels across S TX each
afternoon, especially Sunday through middle of next week. Moderate
winds are expected over the coastal waters as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  76  95  78  95  /  20  10  20  10  10
Victoria          93  74  95  76  95  /  20  10  20  10  10
Laredo            99  78 102  80 105  /  10  10   0   0   0
Alice             97  75  98  75 100  /  20  10  20  10  10
Rockport          90  79  93  81  91  /  20  10  20  10  10
Cotulla           99  76 102  77 103  /  10  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        96  76  96  76  98  /  20  10  20  10  10
Navy Corpus       89  80  92  81  91  /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KEWX 300557
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1257 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions will prevail overnight through Friday night
with some SCT MVFR level clouds possible during the early morning
hours. Winds will be less than 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Expecting isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening mainly across the coastal Plains and southwest
counties. These showers and storms are expected to form along an
outflow boundary that extends from Rocksprings to San Antonio to
Cuero pushing to the southwest. Some of these storms could
produce localized heavy rain as pwats range from 1.6 to 2.0
inches. Also, stronger storms could produce wind gusts of 30 to 40
mph based on v-shaped forecast soundings and DCAPE values over
1000 J/Kg. This activity should come to an end early this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Dry and hot weather conditions
are in store for Thursday with isolated showers/storms confined to
the coastal Plains.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Subtropical high will continue to build across the southwest
region and push to the east for the next several days. This will
keep South Central Texas dry with limited shower/storm activity
across the coastal Plains due to seabreeze interaction. As the
subtropical high pushes to the east and over the area over the
weekend into next week, a warming trend is expected with highs in
the mid to upper 90s over much of the area and near 100 to 102
degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. Heat indices will range from
the 102 to 110 degrees over the weekend into next week during the
afternoon hours especially along and east of Interstate 35. We
could be issuing several Heat Advisories for areas along and south
of Highway 90 and east of I-35 during the Fourth of July weekend
holiday and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  96  75  97  77 /  -    0   0  -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  96  74  97  76 /  -   -    0  -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  96  74  97  76 /  -   -    0  -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  95  74  95  75 /   0   0  -    0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77 100  78 101  79 /  -    0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  95  75  96  77 /   0   0   0  -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  97  75  98  76 /  -    0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  95  74  96  76 /  -   -    0  -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  96  75  97  77 /  -   10   0  20  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  96  75  97  78 /  -    0   0  -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           75  97  76  98  78 /  -    0   0  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 300557
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1257 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions will prevail overnight through Friday night
with some SCT MVFR level clouds possible during the early morning
hours. Winds will be less than 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Expecting isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening mainly across the coastal Plains and southwest
counties. These showers and storms are expected to form along an
outflow boundary that extends from Rocksprings to San Antonio to
Cuero pushing to the southwest. Some of these storms could
produce localized heavy rain as pwats range from 1.6 to 2.0
inches. Also, stronger storms could produce wind gusts of 30 to 40
mph based on v-shaped forecast soundings and DCAPE values over
1000 J/Kg. This activity should come to an end early this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Dry and hot weather conditions
are in store for Thursday with isolated showers/storms confined to
the coastal Plains.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Subtropical high will continue to build across the southwest
region and push to the east for the next several days. This will
keep South Central Texas dry with limited shower/storm activity
across the coastal Plains due to seabreeze interaction. As the
subtropical high pushes to the east and over the area over the
weekend into next week, a warming trend is expected with highs in
the mid to upper 90s over much of the area and near 100 to 102
degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. Heat indices will range from
the 102 to 110 degrees over the weekend into next week during the
afternoon hours especially along and east of Interstate 35. We
could be issuing several Heat Advisories for areas along and south
of Highway 90 and east of I-35 during the Fourth of July weekend
holiday and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  96  75  97  77 /  -    0   0  -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  96  74  97  76 /  -   -    0  -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  96  74  97  76 /  -   -    0  -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  95  74  95  75 /   0   0  -    0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77 100  78 101  79 /  -    0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  95  75  96  77 /   0   0   0  -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  97  75  98  76 /  -    0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  95  74  96  76 /  -   -    0  -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  96  75  97  77 /  -   10   0  20  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  96  75  97  78 /  -    0   0  -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           75  97  76  98  78 /  -    0   0  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...LH




000
FXUS64 KCRP 300557
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1257 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 06Z aviation cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

This morning...Mostly VFR. A few pockets of MVFR cigs and patchy
fog are possible closer to daybreak, otherwise we should remain
VFR with light and variable winds. High confidence.

Today...VFR. Expecting even less coverage in afternoon showers and
thunder than we experienced on Wednesday but the potential still
exists so we continue with the VCSH through the late afternoon
hours. Winds remain mostly out of the southeasterly before
backing a bit more to the east later this evening.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 935 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...Convection over the Rio Grande Plains continues to
diminish this evening with some isolated showers and storms over
the Victoria Crossroads. Low pops were retained for the rest of
through 6z for the activity currently ongoing, with 20 pops after
6z to account for convection moving in off the Gulf Waters.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast appears on track at this time
with only minor edits needed to hourly grids.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

A E-W oriented weak/quasi-stationary boundary persists across the
CWA/MSA per weak MSAS MSLP field with convection developing along
it. Expect convection to dissipate before 03Z Thursday when
considering NAM deterministic CIN values. Concur with the GFS
deterministic that the upper ridge to the NW will slowly build
over the CWA/MSA during the period while the upper trough axis
over the WRN Gulf slowly moves East. ECMWF/NAM/GFS deterministic
maintain the weak/quasi-stationary E-W boundary across the ERN
CWA/MSA at least until Thursday afternoon. The NAM deterministic
maintain above normal PWAT values over the ERN CWA and below
normal West. Anticipate that the combination of significant
moisture and moisture convergence along the boundary will
contribute to noctural convection over the MSA after 06Z
Thursday...then isolated/scattered convection over the ERN CWA/MSA
after 15Z Thursday...yet limited owing to weak upper subsidence.
Isolated convection may develop again over the MSA after 06Z
Friday.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

A hot and humid holiday weekend is expected with isold sea breeze
convection possible on Friday. Latest model runs prog a mid level
inverted trof to be draped across the region on Friday. This trof
combined with sufficient moisture is expected to result in isold
convection along the sea breeze. High pressure is progd to build
across the area through the weekend with little to no chance of
precip and very hot temps. Highs are expected to reach around 105
across the western CWA and around 100 for areas west of highway
281 by Sat and continuing into the first part of next week. Heat
indices may approach 110 at times which is Heat Advisory criteria,
but will generally be 105 to 109 each day. Surface winds are
expected to strengthen to moderate levels across S TX each
afternoon, especially Sunday through middle of next week. Moderate
winds are expected over the coastal waters as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  76  95  78  95  /  20  10  20  10  10
Victoria          93  74  95  76  95  /  20  10  20  10  10
Laredo            99  78 102  80 105  /  10  10   0   0   0
Alice             97  75  98  75 100  /  20  10  20  10  10
Rockport          90  79  93  81  91  /  20  10  20  10  10
Cotulla           99  76 102  77 103  /  10  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        96  76  96  76  98  /  20  10  20  10  10
Navy Corpus       89  80  92  81  91  /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KBRO 300540 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1240 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&

.AVIATION...Mid-level high pressure centered over the Desert
Southwest and extended over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley will produce light to moderate winds and limited cloud
cover over the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with no
significant negative impacts to pilots and aircraft.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1033 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...Just a quick evening update to remove mention of
showers and thunderstorms from the forecast. All convection this
evening has come to an end. CLouds should also begin to thin
overnight. Otherwise...forecast is on track and have made a few
tweaks to the trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Some scattered SHRA and TS will continue to move SSE
across the area through the evening hours. The CU field is
starting to diminish along with overall instability. This may
cause the storms to die out before reaching the TAF sites. Given
the uncertainty...have opted to only mention VCTS for now.
Otherwise...light and varible winds and some areas of low clouds
can be expected overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Mid-level shear axis
and a weak surface boundary continue to slowly sag southward and
approach the CWA from the north. Widely scattered thundershowers
have initiated over mainly Zapata county where it appears
aforementioned boundary is interacting with better
instability/surface heating. Sea-breeze convection has been
underwhelming thus far, possibly owing to shower and storm
activity (and associated cloud cover) over the Gulf this morning
leading to less thermal contrast between the coast and offshore
waters. Also an enhanced stabilizing effect due to the earlier
convection may be in place behind the sea-breeze front.

Moving into tonight, NAM/GFS/RAP suggesting that convection may
continue firing over western counties through early evening...around
03Z or so, and this was well-represented in inherited PoP grid.  By
later tonight, vorticity lobe/shear axis finally moves south of the
area.  However, lower-level moisture that has pooled along the
boundary a bit slower to move out, especially over SE part of CWA.
GFS keeps PW near 2.0" over this area on Thursday but NAM brings it
down to 1.6-1.7" in the afternoon.  MOS guidance not enthused so
will keep PoP`s isolated this area due to possible sea-breeze effect
and silent out west where drying will be more pronounced as mid-level
high center moves into West Texas from NM.  Another hot afternoon
will be in store as heat indices range from 103-108 degrees most
areas.  Expect most all land areas to stay dry Thursday night as
upper high moves closer, approaching central Texas by late Thu.
night.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): The forecast period begins
with a 500mb ridge over Texas with a mid level weakness over the
northern Gulf coast region. However, the strong subtropical ridge
will flatten out as it moves slowly to the east through the
weekend. This mid level pattern will support hot and dry
conditions across Deep South Texas through the holiday weekend
into next week. Temperatures will range from around 90 at the
beaches, low to mid 90s across the lower Valley, and the upper 90s
to several degrees above the century mark across the upper Valley
and the west. Afternoon heat index values will be in the 105 to
110 degree range, with a few sites reaching up to 112, mainly
across the upper Valley. A heat advisory may be needed this
weekend into early next week. Breezy conditions will develop over
the weekend as broad surface high pressure across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico interacts with lower pressure over west Texas.

MARINE:(Now through Thursday night): Light to moderate winds,
courtesy of a weak pressure gradient, and low seas continue
through the short term. Southerly winds increase a bit to moderate
levels Thursday night in response to pressure falls inland over
the interior but still stay well below SCEC levels.

Friday through Monday: Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas will prevail through Saturday due to broad high
pressure over the Gulf. Winds will begin to strength and seas will
slowly build Saturday night into Monday as the pressure gradient
increases. Small craft exercise caution conditions will be possible
Saturday night through Monday.
&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KMAF 300507
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1207 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
mostly light out of a generally southeast direction.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough centered roughly over the Four
Corners, which has helped keep temperatures in West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico below normal the past few days.  Area radars
show weak convection developing over the higher terrain in upslope
flow, and this should diminish w/loss of daytime heating.  To the
NE, not much became of the boundary last night`s MCS sent this way,
but both the NAM and latest HRRR suggest another could redevelop
and move into the Permian Basin late this afternoon and evening.
Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the main concerns.

Otherwise, the theta-e ridge is forecast to move west over the next
couple of days, depriving the higher terrain of a focus for
convection, before moving back east Saturday as the ridge begins
developing SE into the region.  Theta-e ridge is then forecast to
run SW-NE thru the area into the extended, for a slight chance of
spotty convection each day.

W/the ridge developing back into Texas, thicknesses are scheduled to
increase thru the weekend, sending temps back toward the century
mark just in time for Independence Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  94  71  94 /   0  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       66  96  71  97 /   0  10  10  20
Dryden                         71  96  72  98 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  70  96  72  96 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 67  90  68  88 /  10  10  10  20
Hobbs                          65  94  68  95 /   0  10  10  20
Marfa                          62  88  64  89 /  10  10  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           70  94  71  96 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                         70  94  73  96 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                           70  97  73  97 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/




000
FXUS64 KLUB 300455
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1155 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
A complex of storms has developed over the TX Panhandle late this
evening and is moving to the south/southeast. Confidence is not
high enough that these will stay together long enough to affect
any TAF sites overnight, so have left mention of TSRA or any wind
shifts associated with storms out of this package. AMDs will be
issued if the complex finds new strength.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 710 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
Isolated convection is still working its way out of the Panhandle
this evening. CDS looks to be in the clear, but PVW and LBB still
have a chance of storms. LBB includes VCTS attm, but will amend if
storms actually hold together to get to the terminal. After
sunset, activity should weaken.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Isolated mid afternoon convection will be most likely develop along
and ahead of outflow boundary which moved across the area this
morning. That boundary was located from Morton to Wellman to south
of Snyder at 19z. Analysis indicates MLCapes ranging from 500-1500
J/KG across the central and western South Plains. Still some
convective inhibition to deal with off the Caprock. Coverage should
be spotty again this afternoon with gusty 40-50 mph winds the
primary threat in vicinity of cells. Small chance of some
small hail with more vigorous pulse updrafts.

Hi res models indicating some scattered activity farther north
moving S/SW out of S/SE Panhandle perhaps moving into the central S
Plains in the 22z-02z time frame...at which time the loss of surface
heating should end all deep moist convection. Temps have been
running a little cooler thanks to earlier outflow but expect most
locales to reach 90 deg by mid/late afternoon. Upper ridge is progged
to build farther east over the area...and that fact along with
associated developing cap may preclude most moist convection
Thursday with the exception of the southern Panhandle where
instability and NW flow/weakness along periphery of ridge may allow a
few storms to initiate and move south. Temperatures a little warmer
Thursday...in the lower to mid 90s.

LONG TERM...
Upper level high pressure will be overhead on Friday and should
block most precip chances while increasing temps. Models continue to
stall a front in the northern Texas Panhandle early Friday which
would keep convection north of the FA. The best shot at
thunderstorms entering the area would be from outflow pushing
southward from convection along the front. The front will remain
mostly over the northern Texas Panhandle/southwestern Kansas through
Saturday afternoon before being pushes away by an approaching upper
level shortwave trof. The trof will be on the weak side as it will
be pushing through the southern edge of a ridge, but it should bring
in a narrow band of monsoonal moisture from the southwest allowing
for scattered convective chances into Independence Day.

Beyond Independence Day the models continue to diverge with the
upper level pattern. The ECMWF pushes a few very weak shortwave
ridges across the region while the GFS builds a ridge over the
region. Precip chances between the two models seem to come from
various surface trofs with the ECMWF being more aggressive due to
the multiple shortwave trof passages. As far as temps go, either way
you look at it we will be warm and in the 90s. The route of the GFS
would allow for slightly warmer temps due to the overhead ridge.
Aldrich

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/74




000
FXUS64 KHGX 300449
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1149 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Convection near the terminals earlier this evening has
dissipated, but continuing to watch a weakening cluster of showers
moving along the coast towards GLS tonight. Extrapolation places
these showers near the terminal between 05 and 06Z if they are
able to hold together, with additional shower development possible
after 09Z along a remnant boundary draped near the Upper Texas
Coast. Otherwise, expect a dry overnight period expected for the
remainder of the Southeast Texas terminals. Will need to monitor
for any possible activity along the seabreeze late morning into
the afternoon, but drier air over the region should limit
coverage and will keep any mention out of the southern terminals
for now.

Brief drops into MVFR to possibly IFR are possible early to mid
Thursday morning as patchy fog develops (with highest
probabilities near UTS/CXO/SGR/LBX), with VFR conditions expected
to prevail for all terminals by mid morning. Otherwise light
easterly winds are expected to veer to the southeast through the
period.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
The last couple of showers are finally dissipating. Expect the
area to be clear by midnight across the north and just some
lingering TSRA/SHRA debris clouds left until toward sunrise.
Expecting SHRA/TSRA to increase over the coastal waters after 3
am as well as the possibility that storms over LA coast could
propagate into the area. Overnight temperatures look on track. Did
expand the northern edge of the rain chances north a bit Thursday
afternoon as seabreeze may be a bit stronger and penetrate inland
during the heating a little further and early than today.
Soundings still showing the trend of increasing warmth aloft from
subsidence Thursday but probably not enough to shut us down.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  94  75  95  76 /   0  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              76  95  76  95  77 /  10  20  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            79  90  81  91  82 /  30  30  10  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14




000
FXUS64 KAMA 300420 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1120 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.Aviation...
For the 06Z TAFS...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
period at all TAF sites, though possibly MVFR visibilities could
accompany any thunderstorms that develop tonight or again Thursday
afternoon. Possibility for storms to impact TAF sites through around
08Z tonight, then another round of storms expected to develop across
the OK Panhandle and northwest TX Panhandle after 20Z on Thursday.
Given uncertainty in coverage of storms, currently only have mention
of TSRA with a PROB30 group at KGUY and left mention out of KDHT and
KAMA for now. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds are expected through
the day on Thursday.

NF

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 604 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

Aviation...
VFR conditions expected to prevail for the majority of the 00z TAF
cycle minus brief periods when convection impacts the terminals
directly. An outflow boundary is currently closing in on the KAMA
terminal which could spark a storm near the KAMA terminal around the
start of the 00Z TAF while KDHT and KGUY remain convection free for
the first several hours of this TAF cycle. Have inserted a PROB30
group for KDHT and KGUY for a second round of convection expected to
move into the between 10 and 14Z. Have not inserted mention for KAMA
as there is some question how fast the storms will move southward
across the Panhandles. Surface wind gusts will increase into the 20
to 25kt range during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

Prev Discussion... /Issued 413 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

Short Term...This Afternoon through Friday Night...A ridge of high
pressure is presently located over the four corners region of the
desert southwest, placing the combined Panhandles under northwesterly
flow. Convective development over our area this afternoon has not
materialized as subsidence behind a passing shortwave trough
prevents any convection from taking hold. Subsidence should gradually
decrease this evening as another shortwave trough located over
northern Colorado, along with a developing lee side low over
southeastern Colorado, aid in continued thunderstorm formation over
the higher terrain of Colorado and New Mexico. Organization of these
thunderstorms off the Rockies of Colorado may occur leading to
another forward propagating MCS that progresses southeast through
eastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas late tonight. The MCS, and
any outflow that propagates from it, will have MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500
J/kg to interact with in the Oklahoma & far northern Texas Panhandles
which may help sustain it`s forward progression. Increasing
southwesterly flow over the western and southwestern portions of the
combined Panhandles due to the aforementioned lee side low will bring
in slightly drier air, which may preclude any convective activity
starting or making it to that region. Have opted to keep mention of
thunderstorms for the northern and eastern portions of the combined
Panhandles to handle this potential, and will monitor downstream
potential to see if convection can propagate further west than
presently forecasted.

On Thursday, the ridge over the desert southwest is progged to
weaken and move southeast into western Texas. Height decreases across
the combined Panhandles, along with increasing frontogenesis along
the quasi-stationary boundary, low level theta-e ridging, and
moderate isentropic ascent should all combine to provide a favorable
environment for convective initiation. Diabatic heating through the
day Thursday will contribute to a moderately unstable environment,
with MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg.  Storm motion through the day
will also be fairly slow, with east to northeast motion along and to
the south of the boundary of 15 to 20 kts. Should any storms become
right movers, this motion will be slower still at roughly 10 kts.
Therefore, the other concern with these storms will be heavy
rainfall in an environment with around 1.25 to 1.50 inches of PWV.

On Friday, the ridge will be located over central Texas presenting a
more southwesterly to westerly flow over the combined Panhandles. A quasi-
stationary frontal boundary will still be present across the
northern and northeastern portions of the combined Panhandles though
it will become more diffuse through the day in a moist environment.
Strong isentropic lift along this boundary, PWV values around 1.25 to
1.50 inches, and weak diffluence aloft due to a passing shortwave may
support another round of thunderstorms through the day on Friday
mainly over the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle. Bulk
shear in the convective environment will be forecasted to be slightly
higher at 25 to 30 kts, with higher values just north of the CWA.

Bieda

Long Term...Saturday through Tuesday Night...An upper level short
wave is projected to move through Colorado and New Mexico on
Saturday morning and make it to the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles by
Saturday evening. At the surface, the stationary front should start
moving eastward through during the morning hours and shift southerly
winds at the surface to the north. As this feature approaches and
moves through the area, showers and thunderstorms will likely impact
our area. Maximum temperatures should be near the upper 80s in the
far northwestern portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, and
be closer to the upper 90s in the far southeastern portions of the
Texas Panhandle. Elsewhere, temperatures should stay in the mid 90s.

Once the upper level short wave moves past the area late in the day
on Sunday, upper level ridging should begin to build in from the
northwest and return the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles to
northwesterly flow aloft. Overnight, winds should transition to a
more southerly direction for Monday. Around this time in the
forecast, the models begin to disagree some as the ECMWF goes with a
more zonal flow aloft whereas the GFS keeps the area under more
amplified ridge and more meridional flow. This difference will result
in contrasting solutions regarding precipitation as the ECMWF has
more rain forecast than the GFS. For now have decided to go with a
blended consensus due to continued disagreements between modeling
solutions, and have included lower end chances for precipitation.

Tuesday is a bit tricky as the ECMWF has an embedded shortwave
moving through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles while the GFS has
the feature further north and moving through portions of Nebraska.
Both solutions bring an increased chance for rain Tuesday evening
and overnight, the only difference is timing and location. For now,
have kept a slight chance for rain in the central and eastern
portions of the area. Temperatures will gradually get warmer through
the weekend and early parts of next week with high temperatures on
Tuesday reaching the upper 90`s and approaching the century mark in
the far southeastern portions of the Texas Panhandle.

Lorenzen

Aviation...Previous Discussion...18Z TAF Cycle...An upper high over
the four corners region will build slowly east through 18Z Thursday.
VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites through the TAF
forecast period. A frontal boundary across southwest Kansas along
with a northwesterly upper flow across the Panhandles will contribute
to possible convection later today and this evening at the Amarillo
TAF site. Will include a Tempo Group from around 23Z today to around
03Z Thursday or so. Another convective complex is expected to push
south and east across the northern Panhandles later tonight and
Thursday morning, similar to late last night and this morning, and
will include a Tempo Group for convection at both the Dalhart and
Guymon TAF sites between about 10Z to 14Z Thursday for this
possibility. Southwest to south winds should back around to the south
and southeast after 00Z Thursday 5 to 15 knots.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/99




000
FXUS64 KAMA 300420 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1120 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.Aviation...
For the 06Z TAFS...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
period at all TAF sites, though possibly MVFR visibilities could
accompany any thunderstorms that develop tonight or again Thursday
afternoon. Possibility for storms to impact TAF sites through around
08Z tonight, then another round of storms expected to develop across
the OK Panhandle and northwest TX Panhandle after 20Z on Thursday.
Given uncertainty in coverage of storms, currently only have mention
of TSRA with a PROB30 group at KGUY and left mention out of KDHT and
KAMA for now. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds are expected through
the day on Thursday.

NF

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 604 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

Aviation...
VFR conditions expected to prevail for the majority of the 00z TAF
cycle minus brief periods when convection impacts the terminals
directly. An outflow boundary is currently closing in on the KAMA
terminal which could spark a storm near the KAMA terminal around the
start of the 00Z TAF while KDHT and KGUY remain convection free for
the first several hours of this TAF cycle. Have inserted a PROB30
group for KDHT and KGUY for a second round of convection expected to
move into the between 10 and 14Z. Have not inserted mention for KAMA
as there is some question how fast the storms will move southward
across the Panhandles. Surface wind gusts will increase into the 20
to 25kt range during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

Prev Discussion... /Issued 413 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

Short Term...This Afternoon through Friday Night...A ridge of high
pressure is presently located over the four corners region of the
desert southwest, placing the combined Panhandles under northwesterly
flow. Convective development over our area this afternoon has not
materialized as subsidence behind a passing shortwave trough
prevents any convection from taking hold. Subsidence should gradually
decrease this evening as another shortwave trough located over
northern Colorado, along with a developing lee side low over
southeastern Colorado, aid in continued thunderstorm formation over
the higher terrain of Colorado and New Mexico. Organization of these
thunderstorms off the Rockies of Colorado may occur leading to
another forward propagating MCS that progresses southeast through
eastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas late tonight. The MCS, and
any outflow that propagates from it, will have MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500
J/kg to interact with in the Oklahoma & far northern Texas Panhandles
which may help sustain it`s forward progression. Increasing
southwesterly flow over the western and southwestern portions of the
combined Panhandles due to the aforementioned lee side low will bring
in slightly drier air, which may preclude any convective activity
starting or making it to that region. Have opted to keep mention of
thunderstorms for the northern and eastern portions of the combined
Panhandles to handle this potential, and will monitor downstream
potential to see if convection can propagate further west than
presently forecasted.

On Thursday, the ridge over the desert southwest is progged to
weaken and move southeast into western Texas. Height decreases across
the combined Panhandles, along with increasing frontogenesis along
the quasi-stationary boundary, low level theta-e ridging, and
moderate isentropic ascent should all combine to provide a favorable
environment for convective initiation. Diabatic heating through the
day Thursday will contribute to a moderately unstable environment,
with MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg.  Storm motion through the day
will also be fairly slow, with east to northeast motion along and to
the south of the boundary of 15 to 20 kts. Should any storms become
right movers, this motion will be slower still at roughly 10 kts.
Therefore, the other concern with these storms will be heavy
rainfall in an environment with around 1.25 to 1.50 inches of PWV.

On Friday, the ridge will be located over central Texas presenting a
more southwesterly to westerly flow over the combined Panhandles. A quasi-
stationary frontal boundary will still be present across the
northern and northeastern portions of the combined Panhandles though
it will become more diffuse through the day in a moist environment.
Strong isentropic lift along this boundary, PWV values around 1.25 to
1.50 inches, and weak diffluence aloft due to a passing shortwave may
support another round of thunderstorms through the day on Friday
mainly over the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle. Bulk
shear in the convective environment will be forecasted to be slightly
higher at 25 to 30 kts, with higher values just north of the CWA.

Bieda

Long Term...Saturday through Tuesday Night...An upper level short
wave is projected to move through Colorado and New Mexico on
Saturday morning and make it to the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles by
Saturday evening. At the surface, the stationary front should start
moving eastward through during the morning hours and shift southerly
winds at the surface to the north. As this feature approaches and
moves through the area, showers and thunderstorms will likely impact
our area. Maximum temperatures should be near the upper 80s in the
far northwestern portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, and
be closer to the upper 90s in the far southeastern portions of the
Texas Panhandle. Elsewhere, temperatures should stay in the mid 90s.

Once the upper level short wave moves past the area late in the day
on Sunday, upper level ridging should begin to build in from the
northwest and return the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles to
northwesterly flow aloft. Overnight, winds should transition to a
more southerly direction for Monday. Around this time in the
forecast, the models begin to disagree some as the ECMWF goes with a
more zonal flow aloft whereas the GFS keeps the area under more
amplified ridge and more meridional flow. This difference will result
in contrasting solutions regarding precipitation as the ECMWF has
more rain forecast than the GFS. For now have decided to go with a
blended consensus due to continued disagreements between modeling
solutions, and have included lower end chances for precipitation.

Tuesday is a bit tricky as the ECMWF has an embedded shortwave
moving through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles while the GFS has
the feature further north and moving through portions of Nebraska.
Both solutions bring an increased chance for rain Tuesday evening
and overnight, the only difference is timing and location. For now,
have kept a slight chance for rain in the central and eastern
portions of the area. Temperatures will gradually get warmer through
the weekend and early parts of next week with high temperatures on
Tuesday reaching the upper 90`s and approaching the century mark in
the far southeastern portions of the Texas Panhandle.

Lorenzen

Aviation...Previous Discussion...18Z TAF Cycle...An upper high over
the four corners region will build slowly east through 18Z Thursday.
VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites through the TAF
forecast period. A frontal boundary across southwest Kansas along
with a northwesterly upper flow across the Panhandles will contribute
to possible convection later today and this evening at the Amarillo
TAF site. Will include a Tempo Group from around 23Z today to around
03Z Thursday or so. Another convective complex is expected to push
south and east across the northern Panhandles later tonight and
Thursday morning, similar to late last night and this morning, and
will include a Tempo Group for convection at both the Dalhart and
Guymon TAF sites between about 10Z to 14Z Thursday for this
possibility. Southwest to south winds should back around to the south
and southeast after 00Z Thursday 5 to 15 knots.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/99




000
FXUS64 KSJT 300415
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1115 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 620 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

An upper ridge currently over the southern Rockies will move
southeast into West Texas by late Thursday, which will result in dry
conditions across West Central Texas the next 24 hours.

As of mid afternoon, isolated convection has developed across far
southwest Oklahoma. With the ridge west of the area, we remain in
northwest flow aloft, which would be favorable for activity to make
a run at our far northern counties towards evening. The latest HRRR
indicates this scenario but quickly dissipates the convection with
the loss of daytime heating. Given the isolated nature of the
convection so far in Oklahoma, confidence remains low concerning
rain chances across the northern Big Country and will leave POPs out
of the forecast this evening. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s
and lower 70s, with highs on Thursday in the lower and middle 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Fairly benign weather for the long term portion of the forecast,
as hot and dry will be the main features. Upper level high
pressure will move across the Southern Plains late this week,
shifting all the way over the Southeast US by the weekend. Enough
ridging in place to keep most of the area dry, but a weak
shortwave may produce a few storms across the extreme western
sections of the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley on Saturday, and
then across the northern Big Country north of I-20 on Sunday and
Monday. Upper level ridge takes hold again for next week and the
dry areawide conditions return.

As for temperatures, abundant recent rainfall should help mitigate
temperatures a few degrees. Will keep high temperatures for most
areas in the mid and upper 90s in our warmest days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  71  94  73  95 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  69  94  73  95 /   5   0   0   0
Junction  69  95  70  97 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KSJT 300415
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1115 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 620 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

An upper ridge currently over the southern Rockies will move
southeast into West Texas by late Thursday, which will result in dry
conditions across West Central Texas the next 24 hours.

As of mid afternoon, isolated convection has developed across far
southwest Oklahoma. With the ridge west of the area, we remain in
northwest flow aloft, which would be favorable for activity to make
a run at our far northern counties towards evening. The latest HRRR
indicates this scenario but quickly dissipates the convection with
the loss of daytime heating. Given the isolated nature of the
convection so far in Oklahoma, confidence remains low concerning
rain chances across the northern Big Country and will leave POPs out
of the forecast this evening. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s
and lower 70s, with highs on Thursday in the lower and middle 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Fairly benign weather for the long term portion of the forecast,
as hot and dry will be the main features. Upper level high
pressure will move across the Southern Plains late this week,
shifting all the way over the Southeast US by the weekend. Enough
ridging in place to keep most of the area dry, but a weak
shortwave may produce a few storms across the extreme western
sections of the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley on Saturday, and
then across the northern Big Country north of I-20 on Sunday and
Monday. Upper level ridge takes hold again for next week and the
dry areawide conditions return.

As for temperatures, abundant recent rainfall should help mitigate
temperatures a few degrees. Will keep high temperatures for most
areas in the mid and upper 90s in our warmest days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  71  94  73  95 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  69  94  73  95 /   5   0   0   0
Junction  69  95  70  97 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KBRO 300333 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1033 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Just a quick evening update to remove mention of
showers and thunderstorms from the forecast. All convection this
evening has come to an end. CLouds should also begin to thin
overnight. Otherwise...forecast is on track and have made a few
tweaks to the trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Some scattered SHRA and TS will continue to move SSE
across the area through the evening hours. The CU field is
starting to diminish along with overall instability. This may
cause the storms to die out before reaching the TAF sites. Given
the uncertainty...have opted to only mention VCTS for now.
Otherwise...light and varible winds and some areas of low clouds
can be expected overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Mid-level shear axis
and a weak surface boundary continue to slowly sag southward and
approach the CWA from the north. Widely scattered thundershowers
have initiated over mainly Zapata county where it appears
aforementioned boundary is interacting with better
instability/surface heating. Sea-breeze convection has been
underwhelming thus far, possibly owing to shower and storm
activity (and associated cloud cover) over the Gulf this morning
leading to less thermal contrast between the coast and offshore
waters. Also an enhanced stabilizing effect due to the earlier
convection may be in place behind the sea-breeze front.

Moving into tonight, NAM/GFS/RAP suggesting that convection may
continue firing over western counties through early evening...around
03Z or so, and this was well-represented in inherited PoP grid.  By
later tonight, vorticity lobe/shear axis finally moves south of the
area.  However, lower-level moisture that has pooled along the
boundary a bit slower to move out, especially over SE part of CWA.
GFS keeps PW near 2.0" over this area on Thursday but NAM brings it
down to 1.6-1.7" in the afternoon.  MOS guidance not enthused so
will keep PoP`s isolated this area due to possible sea-breeze effect
and silent out west where drying will be more pronounced as mid-level
high center moves into West Texas from NM.  Another hot afternoon
will be in store as heat indices range from 103-108 degrees most
areas.  Expect most all land areas to stay dry Thursday night as
upper high moves closer, approaching central Texas by late Thu.
night.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): The forecast period begins
with a 500mb ridge over Texas with a mid level weakness over the
northern Gulf coast region. However, the strong subtropical ridge
will flatten out as it moves slowly to the east through the
weekend. This mid level pattern will support hot and dry
conditions across Deep South Texas through the holiday weekend
into next week. Temperatures will range from around 90 at the
beaches, low to mid 90s across the lower Valley, and the upper 90s
to several degrees above the century mark across the upper Valley
and the west. Afternoon heat index values will be in the 105 to
110 degree range, with a few sites reaching up to 112, mainly
across the upper Valley. A heat advisory may be needed this
weekend into early next week. Breezy conditions will develop over
the weekend as broad surface high pressure across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico interacts with lower pressure over west Texas.

MARINE:(Now through Thursday night): Light to moderate winds,
courtesy of a weak pressure gradient, and low seas continue
through the short term. Southerly winds increase a bit to moderate
levels Thursday night in response to pressure falls inland over
the interior but still stay well below SCEC levels.

Friday through Monday: Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas will prevail through Saturday due to broad high
pressure over the Gulf. Winds will begin to strength and seas will
slowly build Saturday night into Monday as the pressure gradient
increases. Small craft exercise caution conditions will be possible
Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 300247
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
947 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
The last couple of showers are finally dissipating. Expect the
area to be clear by midnight across the north and just some
lingering TSRA/SHRA debris clouds left until toward sunrise.
Expecting SHRA/TSRA to increase over the coastal waters after 3
am as well as the possibility that storms over LA coast could
propagate into the area. Overnight temperatures look on track. Did
expand the northern edge of the rain chances north a bit Thursday
afternoon as seabreeze may be a bit stronger and penetrate inland
during the heating a little further and early than today.
Soundings still showing the trend of increasing warmth aloft from
subsidence Thursday but probably not enough to shut us down.
45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, the main aviation concerns center around waning
convection for the southern terminals and patchy fog development
overnight.

Isolated SHRA (with embedded TSRA) continue to impact HOU/SGR and
south this evening as outflow/sea breeze boundaries move across
the terminals. Expect this activity to dissipate with loss of
heating by early evening, with gusty and variable winds (15-25
knots) possible near the terminals as this convection weakens and
remnant boundaries move across them. VFR conditions tonight may
gradually give way to MVFR/possibly IFR ceilings and visibility
from fog again early Thursday morning, but restrictions are
expected to be brief. A few showers may also develop along the
coast Thursday morning along a remnant surface boundary and have
also added a VCSH mention in for GLS. Otherwise, VFR conditions
return by mid-morning with light easterly winds becoming
established during the day Thursday.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Currently... a few showers and thunderstorms are moving
southwestward throughout SE Texas with more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity out over the Gulf. Inland activity should
gradually diminish throughout the late afternoon and evening,
while the showers and storms out over the water will likely
persist through Friday. Thursday is expected to be somewhat drier
than today across inland areas, however isolated to scattered
showers and storms are expected to return Friday afternoon. A much
drier pattern is forecast beginning this weekend as a ridge
builds in overhead.

These dry conditions will also allow high temperatures to creep
up into the weekend. Highs are forecast to range from the low/mid
90s for the next couple of days before slowly creeping upward to
the 94-97 degree range. Heat index values will also creep up
through the next several days, generally reaching the 100-110
degree range Sunday through Wednesday. 11

MARINE...
Mainly light and variable winds to start, but gradually become more
consistently onshore through Friday along with continued, but lower
chances for showers or a thunderstorm. By Friday night or Saturday,
a developing low over the western part of the state should induce
stronger winds over the waters. Waves will lag the strengthening
winds, but should continue to build into the latter part of the
weekend. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  94  75  95  76 /   0  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              76  95  76  95  77 /  10  20  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            79  90  81  91  82 /  30  30  10  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45




000
FXUS64 KCRP 300235 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
935 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Convection over the Rio Grande Plains continues to
diminish this evening with some isolated showers and storms over
the Victoria Crossroads. Low pops were retained for the rest of
through 6z for the activity currently ongoing, with 20 pops after
6z to account for convection moving in off the Gulf Waters.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast appears on track at this time
with only minor edits needed to hourly grids.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 651 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for 00z aviation.

AVIATION...Isolated convection that is ongoing across the Brush
Country and Rio Grande Plains, but should begin to diminish with
the loss of daytime heating. An isolated storm could approach the
LRD taf site and have included VCTS through the early evening.
Expect mainly VFR conditions this evening and overnight, but there
is a low chance of MVFR cigs towards sunrise at ALI/CRP/VCT. Winds
through the period will generally be light, less than 10 knots.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

A E-W oriented weak/quasi-stationary boundary persists across the
CWA/MSA per weak MSAS MSLP field with convection developing along
it. Expect convection to dissipate before 03Z Thursday when
considering NAM deterministic CIN values. Concur with the GFS
deterministic that the upper ridge to the NW will slowly build
over the CWA/MSA during the period while the upper trough axis
over the WRN Gulf slowly moves East. ECMWF/NAM/GFS deterministic
maintain the weak/quasi-stationary E-W boundary across the ERN
CWA/MSA at least until Thursday afternoon. The NAM deterministic
maintain above normal PWAT values over the ERN CWA and below
normal West. Anticipate that the combination of significant
moisture and moisture convergence along the boundary will
contribute to noctural convection over the MSA after 06Z
Thursday...then isolated/scattered convection over the ERN CWA/MSA
after 15Z Thursday...yet limited owing to weak upper subsidence.
Isolated convection may develop again over the MSA after 06Z
Friday.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

A hot and humid holiday weekend is expected with isold sea breeze
convection possible on Friday. Latest model runs prog a mid level
inverted trof to be draped across the region on Friday. This trof
combined with sufficient moisture is expected to result in isold
convection along the sea breeze. High pressure is progd to build
across the area through the weekend with little to no chance of
precip and very hot temps. Highs are expected to reach around 105
across the western CWA and around 100 for areas west of highway
281 by Sat and continuing into the first part of next week. Heat
indices may approach 110 at times which is Heat Advisory criteria,
but will generally be 105 to 109 each day. Surface winds are
expected to strengthen to moderate levels across S TX each
afternoon, especially Sunday through middle of next week. Moderate
winds are expected over the coastal waters as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  93  76  95  78  /  20  20  10  20  10
Victoria          74  93  74  95  76  /  20  20  10  20  10
Laredo            77  99  78 102  80  /  20  10  10   0   0
Alice             73  97  75  98  75  /  10  20  10  20  10
Rockport          78  90  79  93  81  /  20  20  10  20  10
Cotulla           75  99  76 102  77  /  10  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        75  96  76  96  76  /  10  20  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       78  89  80  92  81  /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

XX/99...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KFWD 300019 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
719 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/

The showers and storms across western portions of North Texas have
already begun to diminish in intensity. With little daylight
remaining, additional development on approaching outflow looks
unlikely. No significant impacts to northwest arrivals are
expected, and the activity will remain well west of Metroplex TAF
sites. Increasing subsidence should preclude any daytime
convection on Thursday.

There is now a southerly component to the winds across the
Metroplex, within which the commercial airports will remain in
south flow. Waco has been slower to veer, but southeast winds will
be in place across Central Texas by Thursday morning.

25

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/
With northeasterly flow in place at the lower levels, drier and
cooler air has infiltrated the region and conditions are slightly
more pleasant today. Some weak convection popped up west and
northwest of the CWA earlier today where better instability
resides, but what`s left of this activity near Vernon should
dissipate by early evening. Clear and tranquil weather should
prevail tonight with temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s
for lows. Another very warm, sunny and dry day is expected on
Thursday with highs a few degrees warmer than today.

An upper level high sitting across the Four Corners region will
result in northerly flow aloft through early Friday, which raises
the concern that convection across the Central Plains will impact
this region. North to northwest flow aloft in June is notorious
for bringing surprise convective events much farther south than
the models forecast, so certainly it is something that warrants
our attention. For tonight it appears convection will tend to
originate too far north to survive long enough to impact our CWA.
In addition the best instability axis and location of the low
level jet suggests western Oklahoma to possibly as far south as
northwest Texas would be the favored zone for any long-lived
southward moving MCS activity through early morning.

However, on Thursday a shortwave trough on the fringe of the upper
high will drop southeast and reach Oklahoma during the afternoon
and evening hours. Model guidance is all in good agreement in
showing rising precipitable water values across Oklahoma during
the day (an indication of lift aloft and low level moisture
convergence). This should result in scattered convection by Thursday
evening across Oklahoma. Given the moderate northerly flow aloft,
some of this activity may wander south of the Red River and impact
the northern zones late Thursday night. Since the instability
over North Texas will be limited by the recent intrusion of drier
continental air as well as a lack of daytime heating, do not
expect any type of organized MCS or significant convective cluster
to survive or impact the CWA. Instead this would be more elevated
shower/storm type activity that dissipates early Friday morning.
Friday may have an increase in mid-high clouds especially in the
morning hours, but otherwise afternoon sunshine will ensure
another hot day with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.

The upper level high will shift southeast and over the CWA on
Saturday. This will help high temps begin to warm another degree
or two. However the approach of a strong shortwave trough into
the Plains this weekend will cause our low level southerly winds
to increase. While the stronger winds will certainly keep
overnight lows warmer (and near 80 in some locations), it will
limit how hot we will get during the day as well. Upper 90s to
near 100 are possible Sunday into next week, but DFW and Waco may
not notch their first 100 degree day until after the weekend.
Regardless, these daytime temperatures combined with the
increasing Gulf moisture will result in heat index values also
reaching 105 Sunday into next week, which may require heat
advisories to be posted.

There is one shot of rain in the extended part of the forecast
that looks to occur on Sunday night and the 4th of July. The upper
ridge will actually weaken quite a bit by Sunday as the
aforementioned shortwave trough moves into the area from the
west. This feature should provide lift and moisture/instability
will be sufficient for some thunderstorms. Right now the model
guidance is a bit spread on the prospects for rainfall, with the
GFS and Canadian the wettest, showing precipitable water climbing
to near 2.3 inches Sunday night and resulting in some clusters of
intense convection over the region. The ECMWF is drier, however
its latest run did trend the shortwave trough stronger like the
GFS and has brought QPF into the Red River Valley region Monday
morning. For now confidence is not high, but have showed a 20%
chance Sunday night and Monday over generally the northern half of
the region. After this shortwave trough moves through, dry weather
looks to prevail for quite some time as the upper high become
established over the region once again.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  97  78  97  78 /   0   5  10  10   5
Waco                73  96  75  96  75 /   0   0   5  10   5
Paris               71  95  72  95  73 /   0  10  20  10   5
Denton              72  96  73  95  75 /   0  10  20  10   5
McKinney            72  95  74  95  75 /   0  10  20  10   5
Dallas              77  97  79  97  79 /   0   5  10  10   5
Terrell             74  95  74  96  75 /   0   5  10  10   5
Corsicana           75  97  76  97  75 /   0   0  10  10   5
Temple              73  95  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       70  96  71  96  73 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

25/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 300010
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
710 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Isolated convection is still working its way out of the Panhandle
this evening. CDS looks to be in the clear, but PVW and LBB still
have a chance of storms. LBB includes VCTS attm, but will amend if
storms actually hold together to get to the terminal. After
sunset, activity should weaken.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Isolated mid afternoon convection will be most likely develop along
and ahead of outflow boundary which moved across the area this
morning. That boundary was located from Morton to Wellman to south
of Snyder at 19z. Analysis indicates MLCapes ranging from 500-1500
J/KG across the central and western South Plains. Still some
convective inhibition to deal with off the Caprock. Coverage should
be spotty again this afternoon with gusty 40-50 mph winds the
primary threat in vicinity of cells. Small chance of some
small hail with more vigorous pulse updrafts.

Hi res models indicating some scattered activity farther north
moving S/SW out of S/SE Panhandle perhaps moving into the central S
Plains in the 22z-02z time frame...at which time the loss of surface
heating should end all deep moist convection. Temps have been
running a little cooler thanks to earlier outflow but expect most
locales to reach 90 deg by mid/late afternoon. Upper ridge is progged
to build farther east over the area...and that fact along with
associated developing cap may preclude most moist convection
Thursday with the exception of the southern Panhandle where
instability and NW flow/weakness along periphery of ridge may allow a
few storms to initiate and move south. Temperatures a little warmer
Thursday...in the lower to mid 90s.

LONG TERM...
Upper level high pressure will be overhead on Friday and should
block most precip chances while increasing temps. Models continue to
stall a front in the northern Texas Panhandle early Friday which
would keep convection north of the FA. The best shot at
thunderstorms entering the area would be from outflow pushing
southward from convection along the front. The front will remain
mostly over the northern Texas Panhandle/southwestern Kansas through
Saturday afternoon before being pushes away by an approaching upper
level shortwave trof. The trof will be on the weak side as it will
be pushing through the southern edge of a ridge, but it should bring
in a narrow band of monsoonal moisture from the southwest allowing
for scattered convective chances into Independence Day.

Beyond Independence Day the models continue to diverge with the
upper level pattern. The ECMWF pushes a few very weak shortwave
ridges across the region while the GFS builds a ridge over the
region. Precip chances between the two models seem to come from
various surface trofs with the ECMWF being more aggressive due to
the multiple shortwave trof passages. As far as temps go, either way
you look at it we will be warm and in the 90s. The route of the GFS
would allow for slightly warmer temps due to the overhead ridge.
Aldrich

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/74




000
FXUS64 KLUB 300010
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
710 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Isolated convection is still working its way out of the Panhandle
this evening. CDS looks to be in the clear, but PVW and LBB still
have a chance of storms. LBB includes VCTS attm, but will amend if
storms actually hold together to get to the terminal. After
sunset, activity should weaken.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Isolated mid afternoon convection will be most likely develop along
and ahead of outflow boundary which moved across the area this
morning. That boundary was located from Morton to Wellman to south
of Snyder at 19z. Analysis indicates MLCapes ranging from 500-1500
J/KG across the central and western South Plains. Still some
convective inhibition to deal with off the Caprock. Coverage should
be spotty again this afternoon with gusty 40-50 mph winds the
primary threat in vicinity of cells. Small chance of some
small hail with more vigorous pulse updrafts.

Hi res models indicating some scattered activity farther north
moving S/SW out of S/SE Panhandle perhaps moving into the central S
Plains in the 22z-02z time frame...at which time the loss of surface
heating should end all deep moist convection. Temps have been
running a little cooler thanks to earlier outflow but expect most
locales to reach 90 deg by mid/late afternoon. Upper ridge is progged
to build farther east over the area...and that fact along with
associated developing cap may preclude most moist convection
Thursday with the exception of the southern Panhandle where
instability and NW flow/weakness along periphery of ridge may allow a
few storms to initiate and move south. Temperatures a little warmer
Thursday...in the lower to mid 90s.

LONG TERM...
Upper level high pressure will be overhead on Friday and should
block most precip chances while increasing temps. Models continue to
stall a front in the northern Texas Panhandle early Friday which
would keep convection north of the FA. The best shot at
thunderstorms entering the area would be from outflow pushing
southward from convection along the front. The front will remain
mostly over the northern Texas Panhandle/southwestern Kansas through
Saturday afternoon before being pushes away by an approaching upper
level shortwave trof. The trof will be on the weak side as it will
be pushing through the southern edge of a ridge, but it should bring
in a narrow band of monsoonal moisture from the southwest allowing
for scattered convective chances into Independence Day.

Beyond Independence Day the models continue to diverge with the
upper level pattern. The ECMWF pushes a few very weak shortwave
ridges across the region while the GFS builds a ridge over the
region. Precip chances between the two models seem to come from
various surface trofs with the ECMWF being more aggressive due to
the multiple shortwave trof passages. As far as temps go, either way
you look at it we will be warm and in the 90s. The route of the GFS
would allow for slightly warmer temps due to the overhead ridge.
Aldrich

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/74




000
FXUS64 KEWX 300006
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
706 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION... /00Z TAFs/

High pressure aloft and a dry airmass over TX will keep area TAF
sites VFR through the next 24-30 hours. Sustained winds are
expected to remain below 12 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Expecting isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening mainly across the coastal Plains and southwest
counties. These showers and storms are expected to form along an
outflow boundary that extends from Rocksprings to San Antonio to
Cuero pushing to the southwest. Some of these storms could
produce localized heavy rain as pwats range from 1.6 to 2.0
inches. Also, stronger storms could produce wind gusts of 30 to 40
mph based on v-shaped forecast soundings and DCAPE values over
1000 J/Kg. This activity should come to an end early this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Dry and hot weather conditions
are in store for Thursday with isolated showers/storms confined to
the coastal Plains.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Subtropical high will continue to build across the southwest
region and push to the east for the next several days. This will
keep South Central Texas dry with limited shower/storm activity
across the coastal Plains due to seabreeze interaction. As the
subtropical high pushes to the east and over the area over the
weekend into next week, a warming trend is expected with highs in
the mid to upper 90s over much of the area and near 100 to 102
degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. Heat indices will range from
the 102 to 110 degrees over the weekend into next week during the
afternoon hours especially along and east of Interstate 35. We
could be issuing several Heat Advisories for areas along and south
of Highway 90 and east of I-35 during the Fourth of July weekend
holiday and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  96  74  96  75 /  -    0  -    0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  95  72  96  74 /   0  -   -   -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  95  72  96  74 /  -   -   -   -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            72  94  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  99  77 100  78 /  10  -   -    0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  95  73  95  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  95  72  97  75 /  -   -   -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  95  72  95  74 /  -   -   -   -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  94  74  96  75 /  -   10  -   10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  95  74  96  75 /  -   -   -    0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  96  75  97  76 /  -   -   -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...24
Public Service/Data Collection...30




000
FXUS64 KBRO 292355
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
655 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Some scattered SHRA and TS will continue to move SSE
across the area through the evening hours. The CU field is
starting to diminish along with overall instability. This may
cause the storms to die out before reaching the TAF sites. Given
the uncertainty...have opted to only mention VCTS for now.
Otherwise...light and varible winds and some areas of low clouds
can be expected overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Mid-level shear axis
and a weak surface boundary continue to slowly sag southward and
approach the CWA from the north. Widely scattered thundershowers
have initiated over mainly Zapata county where it appears
aforementioned boundary is interacting with better
instability/surface heating. Sea-breeze convection has been
underwhelming thus far, possibly owing to shower and storm
activity (and associated cloud cover) over the Gulf this morning
leading to less thermal contrast between the coast and offshore
waters. Also an enhanced stabilizing effect due to the earlier
convection may be in place behind the sea-breeze front.

Moving into tonight, NAM/GFS/RAP suggesting that convection may
continue firing over western counties through early evening...around
03Z or so, and this was well-represented in inherited PoP grid.  By
later tonight, vorticity lobe/shear axis finally moves south of the
area.  However, lower-level moisture that has pooled along the
boundary a bit slower to move out, especially over SE part of CWA.
GFS keeps PW near 2.0" over this area on Thursday but NAM brings it
down to 1.6-1.7" in the afternoon.  MOS guidance not enthused so
will keep PoP`s isolated this area due to possible sea-breeze effect
and silent out west where drying will be more pronounced as mid-level
high center moves into West Texas from NM.  Another hot afternoon
will be in store as heat indices range from 103-108 degrees most
areas.  Expect most all land areas to stay dry Thursday night as
upper high moves closer, approaching central Texas by late Thu.
night.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): The forecast period begins
with a 500mb ridge over Texas with a mid level weakness over the
northern Gulf coast region. However, the strong subtropical ridge
will flatten out as it moves slowly to the east through the
weekend. This mid level pattern will support hot and dry
conditions across Deep South Texas through the holiday weekend
into next week. Temperatures will range from around 90 at the
beaches, low to mid 90s across the lower Valley, and the upper 90s
to several degrees above the century mark across the upper Valley
and the west. Afternoon heat index values will be in the 105 to
110 degree range, with a few sites reaching up to 112, mainly
across the upper Valley. A heat advisory may be needed this
weekend into early next week. Breezy conditions will develop over
the weekend as broad surface high pressure across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico interacts with lower pressure over west Texas.

MARINE:(Now through Thursday night): Light to moderate winds,
courtesy of a weak pressure gradient, and low seas continue
through the short term. Southerly winds increase a bit to moderate
levels Thursday night in response to pressure falls inland over
the interior but still stay well below SCEC levels.

Friday through Monday: Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas will prevail through Saturday due to broad high
pressure over the Gulf. Winds will begin to strength and seas will
slowly build Saturday night into Monday as the pressure gradient
increases. Small craft exercise caution conditions will be possible
Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/99




000
FXUS64 KBRO 292355
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
655 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Some scattered SHRA and TS will continue to move SSE
across the area through the evening hours. The CU field is
starting to diminish along with overall instability. This may
cause the storms to die out before reaching the TAF sites. Given
the uncertainty...have opted to only mention VCTS for now.
Otherwise...light and varible winds and some areas of low clouds
can be expected overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Mid-level shear axis
and a weak surface boundary continue to slowly sag southward and
approach the CWA from the north. Widely scattered thundershowers
have initiated over mainly Zapata county where it appears
aforementioned boundary is interacting with better
instability/surface heating. Sea-breeze convection has been
underwhelming thus far, possibly owing to shower and storm
activity (and associated cloud cover) over the Gulf this morning
leading to less thermal contrast between the coast and offshore
waters. Also an enhanced stabilizing effect due to the earlier
convection may be in place behind the sea-breeze front.

Moving into tonight, NAM/GFS/RAP suggesting that convection may
continue firing over western counties through early evening...around
03Z or so, and this was well-represented in inherited PoP grid.  By
later tonight, vorticity lobe/shear axis finally moves south of the
area.  However, lower-level moisture that has pooled along the
boundary a bit slower to move out, especially over SE part of CWA.
GFS keeps PW near 2.0" over this area on Thursday but NAM brings it
down to 1.6-1.7" in the afternoon.  MOS guidance not enthused so
will keep PoP`s isolated this area due to possible sea-breeze effect
and silent out west where drying will be more pronounced as mid-level
high center moves into West Texas from NM.  Another hot afternoon
will be in store as heat indices range from 103-108 degrees most
areas.  Expect most all land areas to stay dry Thursday night as
upper high moves closer, approaching central Texas by late Thu.
night.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): The forecast period begins
with a 500mb ridge over Texas with a mid level weakness over the
northern Gulf coast region. However, the strong subtropical ridge
will flatten out as it moves slowly to the east through the
weekend. This mid level pattern will support hot and dry
conditions across Deep South Texas through the holiday weekend
into next week. Temperatures will range from around 90 at the
beaches, low to mid 90s across the lower Valley, and the upper 90s
to several degrees above the century mark across the upper Valley
and the west. Afternoon heat index values will be in the 105 to
110 degree range, with a few sites reaching up to 112, mainly
across the upper Valley. A heat advisory may be needed this
weekend into early next week. Breezy conditions will develop over
the weekend as broad surface high pressure across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico interacts with lower pressure over west Texas.

MARINE:(Now through Thursday night): Light to moderate winds,
courtesy of a weak pressure gradient, and low seas continue
through the short term. Southerly winds increase a bit to moderate
levels Thursday night in response to pressure falls inland over
the interior but still stay well below SCEC levels.

Friday through Monday: Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas will prevail through Saturday due to broad high
pressure over the Gulf. Winds will begin to strength and seas will
slowly build Saturday night into Monday as the pressure gradient
increases. Small craft exercise caution conditions will be possible
Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 292354
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
654 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, the main aviation concerns center around waning
convection for the southern terminals and patchy fog development
overnight.

Isolated SHRA (with embedded TSRA) continue to impact HOU/SGR and
south this evening as outflow/sea breeze boundaries move across
the terminals. Expect this activity to dissipate with loss of
heating by early evening, with gusty and variable winds (15-25
knots) possible near the terminals as this convection weakens and
remnant boundaries move across them. VFR conditions tonight may
gradually give way to MVFR/possibly IFR ceilings and visibility
from fog again early Thursday morning, but restrictions are
expected to be brief. A few showers may also develop along the
coast Thursday morning along a remnant surface boundary and have
also added a VCSH mention in for GLS. Otherwise, VFR conditions
return by mid-morning with light easterly winds becoming
established during the day Thursday.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Currently... a few showers and thunderstorms are moving
southwestward throughout SE Texas with more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity out over the Gulf. Inland activity should
gradually diminish throughout the late afternoon and evening,
while the showers and storms out over the water will likely
persist through Friday. Thursday is expected to be somewhat drier
than today across inland areas, however isolated to scattered
showers and storms are expected to return Friday afternoon. A much
drier pattern is forecast beginning this weekend as a ridge
builds in overhead.

These dry conditions will also allow high temperatures to creep
up into the weekend. Highs are forecast to range from the low/mid
90s for the next couple of days before slowly creeping upward to
the 94-97 degree range. Heat index values will also creep up
through the next several days, generally reaching the 100-110
degree range Sunday through Wednesday. 11

MARINE...
Mainly light and variable winds to start, but gradually become more
consistently onshore through Friday along with continued, but lower
chances for showers or a thunderstorm. By Friday night or Saturday,
a developing low over the western part of the state should induce
stronger winds over the waters. Waves will lag the strengthening
winds, but should continue to build into the latter part of the
weekend. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  94  75  95  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              76  95  76  95  77 /  10  20  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            79  90  81  91  82 /  30  30  10  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14




000
FXUS64 KHGX 292354
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
654 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, the main aviation concerns center around waning
convection for the southern terminals and patchy fog development
overnight.

Isolated SHRA (with embedded TSRA) continue to impact HOU/SGR and
south this evening as outflow/sea breeze boundaries move across
the terminals. Expect this activity to dissipate with loss of
heating by early evening, with gusty and variable winds (15-25
knots) possible near the terminals as this convection weakens and
remnant boundaries move across them. VFR conditions tonight may
gradually give way to MVFR/possibly IFR ceilings and visibility
from fog again early Thursday morning, but restrictions are
expected to be brief. A few showers may also develop along the
coast Thursday morning along a remnant surface boundary and have
also added a VCSH mention in for GLS. Otherwise, VFR conditions
return by mid-morning with light easterly winds becoming
established during the day Thursday.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Currently... a few showers and thunderstorms are moving
southwestward throughout SE Texas with more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity out over the Gulf. Inland activity should
gradually diminish throughout the late afternoon and evening,
while the showers and storms out over the water will likely
persist through Friday. Thursday is expected to be somewhat drier
than today across inland areas, however isolated to scattered
showers and storms are expected to return Friday afternoon. A much
drier pattern is forecast beginning this weekend as a ridge
builds in overhead.

These dry conditions will also allow high temperatures to creep
up into the weekend. Highs are forecast to range from the low/mid
90s for the next couple of days before slowly creeping upward to
the 94-97 degree range. Heat index values will also creep up
through the next several days, generally reaching the 100-110
degree range Sunday through Wednesday. 11

MARINE...
Mainly light and variable winds to start, but gradually become more
consistently onshore through Friday along with continued, but lower
chances for showers or a thunderstorm. By Friday night or Saturday,
a developing low over the western part of the state should induce
stronger winds over the waters. Waves will lag the strengthening
winds, but should continue to build into the latter part of the
weekend. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  94  75  95  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              76  95  76  95  77 /  10  20  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            79  90  81  91  82 /  30  30  10  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14




000
FXUS64 KCRP 292351 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
651 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for 00z aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...Isolated convection that is ongoing across the Brush
Country and Rio Grande Plains, but should begin to diminish with
the loss of daytime heating. An isolated storm could approach the
LRD taf site and have included VCTS through the early evening.
Expect mainly VFR conditions this evening and overnight, but there
is a low chance of MVFR cigs towards sunrise at ALI/CRP/VCT. Winds
through the period will generally be light, less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

A E-W oriented weak/quasi-stationary boundary persists across the
CWA/MSA per weak MSAS MSLP field with convection developing along
it. Expect convection to dissipate before 03Z Thursday when
considering NAM deterministic CIN values. Concur with the GFS
deterministic that the upper ridge to the NW will slowly build
over the CWA/MSA during the period while the upper trough axis
over the WRN Gulf slowly moves East. ECMWF/NAM/GFS deterministic
maintain the weak/quasi-stationary E-W boundary across the ERN
CWA/MSA at least until Thursday afternoon. The NAM deterministic
maintain above normal PWAT values over the ERN CWA and below
normal West. Anticipate that the combination of significant
moisture and moisture convergence along the boundary will
contribute to noctural convection over the MSA after 06Z
Thursday...then isolated/scattered convection over the ERN CWA/MSA
after 15Z Thursday...yet limited owing to weak upper subsidence.
Isolated convection may develop again over the MSA after 06Z
Friday.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

A hot and humid holiday weekend is expected with isold sea breeze
convection possible on Friday. Latest model runs prog a mid level
inverted trof to be draped across the region on Friday. This trof
combined with sufficient moisture is expected to result in isold
convection along the sea breeze. High pressure is progd to build
across the area through the weekend with little to no chance of
precip and very hot temps. Highs are expected to reach around 105
across the western CWA and around 100 for areas west of highway
281 by Sat and continuing into the first part of next week. Heat
indices may approach 110 at times which is Heat Advisory criteria,
but will generally be 105 to 109 each day. Surface winds are
expected to strengthen to moderate levels across S TX each
afternoon, especially Sunday through middle of next week. Moderate
winds are expected over the coastal waters as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  93  76  95  78  /  10  20  10  20  10
Victoria          74  93  74  95  76  /  10  20  10  20  10
Laredo            78  99  78 102  80  /  30  10  10   0   0
Alice             75  97  75  98  75  /  20  20  10  20  10
Rockport          78  90  79  93  81  /  10  20  10  20  10
Cotulla           76  99  76 102  77  /  20  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        75  96  76  96  76  /  20  20  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       79  89  80  92  81  /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 292351 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
651 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for 00z aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...Isolated convection that is ongoing across the Brush
Country and Rio Grande Plains, but should begin to diminish with
the loss of daytime heating. An isolated storm could approach the
LRD taf site and have included VCTS through the early evening.
Expect mainly VFR conditions this evening and overnight, but there
is a low chance of MVFR cigs towards sunrise at ALI/CRP/VCT. Winds
through the period will generally be light, less than 10 knots.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

A E-W oriented weak/quasi-stationary boundary persists across the
CWA/MSA per weak MSAS MSLP field with convection developing along
it. Expect convection to dissipate before 03Z Thursday when
considering NAM deterministic CIN values. Concur with the GFS
deterministic that the upper ridge to the NW will slowly build
over the CWA/MSA during the period while the upper trough axis
over the WRN Gulf slowly moves East. ECMWF/NAM/GFS deterministic
maintain the weak/quasi-stationary E-W boundary across the ERN
CWA/MSA at least until Thursday afternoon. The NAM deterministic
maintain above normal PWAT values over the ERN CWA and below
normal West. Anticipate that the combination of significant
moisture and moisture convergence along the boundary will
contribute to noctural convection over the MSA after 06Z
Thursday...then isolated/scattered convection over the ERN CWA/MSA
after 15Z Thursday...yet limited owing to weak upper subsidence.
Isolated convection may develop again over the MSA after 06Z
Friday.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

A hot and humid holiday weekend is expected with isold sea breeze
convection possible on Friday. Latest model runs prog a mid level
inverted trof to be draped across the region on Friday. This trof
combined with sufficient moisture is expected to result in isold
convection along the sea breeze. High pressure is progd to build
across the area through the weekend with little to no chance of
precip and very hot temps. Highs are expected to reach around 105
across the western CWA and around 100 for areas west of highway
281 by Sat and continuing into the first part of next week. Heat
indices may approach 110 at times which is Heat Advisory criteria,
but will generally be 105 to 109 each day. Surface winds are
expected to strengthen to moderate levels across S TX each
afternoon, especially Sunday through middle of next week. Moderate
winds are expected over the coastal waters as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  93  76  95  78  /  10  20  10  20  10
Victoria          74  93  74  95  76  /  10  20  10  20  10
Laredo            78  99  78 102  80  /  30  10  10   0   0
Alice             75  97  75  98  75  /  20  20  10  20  10
Rockport          78  90  79  93  81  /  10  20  10  20  10
Cotulla           76  99  76 102  77  /  20  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        75  96  76  96  76  /  20  20  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       79  89  80  92  81  /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KSJT 292320
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
620 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

An upper ridge currently over the southern Rockies will move
southeast into West Texas by late Thursday, which will result in dry
conditions across West Central Texas the next 24 hours.

As of mid afternoon, isolated convection has developed across far
southwest Oklahoma. With the ridge west of the area, we remain in
northwest flow aloft, which would be favorable for activity to make
a run at our far northern counties towards evening. The latest HRRR
indicates this scenario but quickly dissipates the convection with
the loss of daytime heating. Given the isolated nature of the
convection so far in Oklahoma, confidence remains low concerning
rain chances across the northern Big Country and will leave POPs out
of the forecast this evening. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s
and lower 70s, with highs on Thursday in the lower and middle 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Fairly benign weather for the long term portion of the forecast,
as hot and dry will be the main features. Upper level high
pressure will move across the Southern Plains late this week,
shifting all the way over the Southeast US by the weekend. Enough
ridging in place to keep most of the area dry, but a weak
shortwave may produce a few storms across the extreme western
sections of the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley on Saturday, and
then across the northern Big Country north of I-20 on Sunday and
Monday. Upper level ridge takes hold again for next week and the
dry areawide conditions return.

As for temperatures, abundant recent rainfall should help mitigate
temperatures a few degrees. Will keep high temperatures for most
areas in the mid and upper 90s in our warmest days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  71  94  73  95 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  69  94  73  95 /   5   0   0   0
Junction  69  95  70  97 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KAMA 292304
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
604 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.Aviation...
VFR conditions expected to prevail for the majority of the 00z TAF
cycle minus brief periods when convection impacts the terminals
directly. An outflow boundary is currently closing in on the KAMA
terminal which could spark a storm near the KAMA terminal around the
start of the 00Z TAF while KDHT and KGUY remain convection free for
the first several hours of this TAF cycle. Have inserted a PROB30
group for KDHT and KGUY for a second round of convection expected to
move into the between 10 and 14Z. Have not inserted mention for KAMA
as there is some question how fast the storms will move southward
across the Panhandles. Surface wind gusts will increase into the 20
to 25kt range during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 413 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

Short Term...This Afternoon through Friday Night...A ridge of high
pressure is presently located over the four corners region of the
desert southwest, placing the combined Panhandles under northwesterly
flow. Convective development over our area this afternoon has not
materialized as subsidence behind a passing shortwave trough
prevents any convection from taking hold. Subsidence should gradually
decrease this evening as another shortwave trough located over
northern Colorado, along with a developing lee side low over
southeastern Colorado, aid in continued thunderstorm formation over
the higher terrain of Colorado and New Mexico. Organization of these
thunderstorms off the Rockies of Colorado may occur leading to
another forward propagating MCS that progresses southeast through
eastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas late tonight. The MCS, and
any outflow that propagates from it, will have MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500
J/kg to interact with in the Oklahoma & far northern Texas Panhandles
which may help sustain it`s forward progression. Increasing
southwesterly flow over the western and southwestern portions of the
combined Panhandles due to the aforementioned lee side low will bring
in slightly drier air, which may preclude any convective activity
starting or making it to that region. Have opted to keep mention of
thunderstorms for the northern and eastern portions of the combined
Panhandles to handle this potential, and will monitor downstream
potential to see if convection can propagate further west than
presently forecasted.

On Thursday, the ridge over the desert southwest is progged to
weaken and move southeast into western Texas. Height decreases across
the combined Panhandles, along with increasing frontogenesis along
the quasi-stationary boundary, low level theta-e ridging, and
moderate isentropic ascent should all combine to provide a favorable
environment for convective initiation. Diabatic heating through the
day Thursday will contribute to a moderately unstable environment,
with MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg.  Storm motion through the day
will also be fairly slow, with east to northeast motion along and to
the south of the boundary of 15 to 20 kts. Should any storms become
right movers, this motion will be slower still at roughly 10 kts.
Therefore, the other concern with these storms will be heavy
rainfall in an environment with around 1.25 to 1.50 inches of PWV.

On Friday, the ridge will be located over central Texas presenting a
more southwesterly to westerly flow over the combined Panhandles. A quasi-
stationary frontal boundary will still be present across the
northern and northeastern portions of the combined Panhandles though
it will become more diffuse through the day in a moist environment.
Strong isentropic lift along this boundary, PWV values around 1.25 to
1.50 inches, and weak diffluence aloft due to a passing shortwave may
support another round of thunderstorms through the day on Friday
mainly over the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle. Bulk
shear in the convective environment will be forecasted to be slightly
higher at 25 to 30 kts, with higher values just north of the CWA.

Bieda

Long Term...Saturday through Tuesday Night...An upper level short
wave is projected to move through Colorado and New Mexico on
Saturday morning and make it to the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles by
Saturday evening. At the surface, the stationary front should start
moving eastward through during the morning hours and shift southerly
winds at the surface to the north. As this feature approaches and
moves through the area, showers and thunderstorms will likely impact
our area. Maximum temperatures should be near the upper 80s in the
far northwestern portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, and
be closer to the upper 90s in the far southeastern portions of the
Texas Panhandle. Elsewhere, temperatures should stay in the mid 90s.

Once the upper level short wave moves past the area late in the day
on Sunday, upper level ridging should begin to build in from the
northwest and return the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles to
northwesterly flow aloft. Overnight, winds should transition to a
more southerly direction for Monday. Around this time in the
forecast, the models begin to disagree some as the ECMWF goes with a
more zonal flow aloft whereas the GFS keeps the area under more
amplified ridge and more meridional flow. This difference will result
in contrasting solutions regarding precipitation as the ECMWF has
more rain forecast than the GFS. For now have decided to go with a
blended consensus due to continued disagreements between modeling
solutions, and have included lower end chances for precipitation.

Tuesday is a bit tricky as the ECMWF has an embedded shortwave
moving through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles while the GFS has
the feature further north and moving through portions of Nebraska.
Both solutions bring an increased chance for rain Tuesday evening
and overnight, the only difference is timing and location. For now,
have kept a slight chance for rain in the central and eastern
portions of the area. Temperatures will gradually get warmer through
the weekend and early parts of next week with high temperatures on
Tuesday reaching the upper 90`s and approaching the century mark in
the far southeastern portions of the Texas Panhandle.

Lorenzen

Aviation...Previous Discussion...18Z TAF Cycle...An upper high over
the four corners region will build slowly east through 18Z Thursday.
VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites through the TAF
forecast period. A frontal boundary across southwest Kansas along
with a northwesterly upper flow across the Panhandles will contribute
to possible convection later today and this evening at the Amarillo
TAF site. Will include a Tempo Group from around 23Z today to around
03Z Thursday or so. Another convective complex is expected to push
south and east across the northern Panhandles later tonight and
Thursday morning, similar to late last night and this morning, and
will include a Tempo Group for convection at both the Dalhart and
Guymon TAF sites between about 10Z to 14Z Thursday for this
possibility. Southwest to south winds should back around to the south
and southeast after 00Z Thursday 5 to 15 knots.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14




000
FXUS64 KAMA 292304
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
604 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.Aviation...
VFR conditions expected to prevail for the majority of the 00z TAF
cycle minus brief periods when convection impacts the terminals
directly. An outflow boundary is currently closing in on the KAMA
terminal which could spark a storm near the KAMA terminal around the
start of the 00Z TAF while KDHT and KGUY remain convection free for
the first several hours of this TAF cycle. Have inserted a PROB30
group for KDHT and KGUY for a second round of convection expected to
move into the between 10 and 14Z. Have not inserted mention for KAMA
as there is some question how fast the storms will move southward
across the Panhandles. Surface wind gusts will increase into the 20
to 25kt range during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 413 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

Short Term...This Afternoon through Friday Night...A ridge of high
pressure is presently located over the four corners region of the
desert southwest, placing the combined Panhandles under northwesterly
flow. Convective development over our area this afternoon has not
materialized as subsidence behind a passing shortwave trough
prevents any convection from taking hold. Subsidence should gradually
decrease this evening as another shortwave trough located over
northern Colorado, along with a developing lee side low over
southeastern Colorado, aid in continued thunderstorm formation over
the higher terrain of Colorado and New Mexico. Organization of these
thunderstorms off the Rockies of Colorado may occur leading to
another forward propagating MCS that progresses southeast through
eastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas late tonight. The MCS, and
any outflow that propagates from it, will have MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500
J/kg to interact with in the Oklahoma & far northern Texas Panhandles
which may help sustain it`s forward progression. Increasing
southwesterly flow over the western and southwestern portions of the
combined Panhandles due to the aforementioned lee side low will bring
in slightly drier air, which may preclude any convective activity
starting or making it to that region. Have opted to keep mention of
thunderstorms for the northern and eastern portions of the combined
Panhandles to handle this potential, and will monitor downstream
potential to see if convection can propagate further west than
presently forecasted.

On Thursday, the ridge over the desert southwest is progged to
weaken and move southeast into western Texas. Height decreases across
the combined Panhandles, along with increasing frontogenesis along
the quasi-stationary boundary, low level theta-e ridging, and
moderate isentropic ascent should all combine to provide a favorable
environment for convective initiation. Diabatic heating through the
day Thursday will contribute to a moderately unstable environment,
with MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg.  Storm motion through the day
will also be fairly slow, with east to northeast motion along and to
the south of the boundary of 15 to 20 kts. Should any storms become
right movers, this motion will be slower still at roughly 10 kts.
Therefore, the other concern with these storms will be heavy
rainfall in an environment with around 1.25 to 1.50 inches of PWV.

On Friday, the ridge will be located over central Texas presenting a
more southwesterly to westerly flow over the combined Panhandles. A quasi-
stationary frontal boundary will still be present across the
northern and northeastern portions of the combined Panhandles though
it will become more diffuse through the day in a moist environment.
Strong isentropic lift along this boundary, PWV values around 1.25 to
1.50 inches, and weak diffluence aloft due to a passing shortwave may
support another round of thunderstorms through the day on Friday
mainly over the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle. Bulk
shear in the convective environment will be forecasted to be slightly
higher at 25 to 30 kts, with higher values just north of the CWA.

Bieda

Long Term...Saturday through Tuesday Night...An upper level short
wave is projected to move through Colorado and New Mexico on
Saturday morning and make it to the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles by
Saturday evening. At the surface, the stationary front should start
moving eastward through during the morning hours and shift southerly
winds at the surface to the north. As this feature approaches and
moves through the area, showers and thunderstorms will likely impact
our area. Maximum temperatures should be near the upper 80s in the
far northwestern portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, and
be closer to the upper 90s in the far southeastern portions of the
Texas Panhandle. Elsewhere, temperatures should stay in the mid 90s.

Once the upper level short wave moves past the area late in the day
on Sunday, upper level ridging should begin to build in from the
northwest and return the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles to
northwesterly flow aloft. Overnight, winds should transition to a
more southerly direction for Monday. Around this time in the
forecast, the models begin to disagree some as the ECMWF goes with a
more zonal flow aloft whereas the GFS keeps the area under more
amplified ridge and more meridional flow. This difference will result
in contrasting solutions regarding precipitation as the ECMWF has
more rain forecast than the GFS. For now have decided to go with a
blended consensus due to continued disagreements between modeling
solutions, and have included lower end chances for precipitation.

Tuesday is a bit tricky as the ECMWF has an embedded shortwave
moving through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles while the GFS has
the feature further north and moving through portions of Nebraska.
Both solutions bring an increased chance for rain Tuesday evening
and overnight, the only difference is timing and location. For now,
have kept a slight chance for rain in the central and eastern
portions of the area. Temperatures will gradually get warmer through
the weekend and early parts of next week with high temperatures on
Tuesday reaching the upper 90`s and approaching the century mark in
the far southeastern portions of the Texas Panhandle.

Lorenzen

Aviation...Previous Discussion...18Z TAF Cycle...An upper high over
the four corners region will build slowly east through 18Z Thursday.
VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites through the TAF
forecast period. A frontal boundary across southwest Kansas along
with a northwesterly upper flow across the Panhandles will contribute
to possible convection later today and this evening at the Amarillo
TAF site. Will include a Tempo Group from around 23Z today to around
03Z Thursday or so. Another convective complex is expected to push
south and east across the northern Panhandles later tonight and
Thursday morning, similar to late last night and this morning, and
will include a Tempo Group for convection at both the Dalhart and
Guymon TAF sites between about 10Z to 14Z Thursday for this
possibility. Southwest to south winds should back around to the south
and southeast after 00Z Thursday 5 to 15 knots.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14




000
FXUS64 KMAF 292248
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
548 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are expected at the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Winds
will generally be southeasterly at 5 to 15 mph, with occasional
gusts.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough centered roughly over the Four
Corners, which has helped keep temperatures in West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico below normal the past few days.  Area radars
show weak convection developing over the higher terrain in upslope
flow, and this should diminish w/loss of daytime heating.  To the
NE, not much became of the boundary last night`s MCS sent this way,
but both the NAM and latest HRRR suggest another could redevelop
and move into the Permian Basin late this afternoon and evening.
Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the main concerns.

Otherwise, the theta-e ridge is forecast to move west over the next
couple of days, depriving the higher terrain of a focus for
convection, before moving back east Saturday as the ridge begins
developing SE into the region.  Theta-e ridge is then forecast to
run SW-NE thru the area into the extended, for a slight chance of
spotty convection each day.

W/the ridge developing back into Texas, thicknesses are scheduled to
increase thru the weekend, sending temps back toward the century
mark just in time for Independence Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  95  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       66  95  66  96 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         70  97  71  96 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  67  95  70  96 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 65  89  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          66  93  65  94 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          60  87  62  88 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           66  95  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         68  94  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           67  96  70  97 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/44




000
FXUS64 KAMA 292113
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
413 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.Short Term...This Afternoon through Friday Night...A ridge of high
pressure is presently located over the four corners region of the
desert southwest, placing the combined Panhandles under northwesterly
flow. Convective development over our area this afternoon has not
materialized as subsidence behind a passing shortwave trough
prevents any convection from taking hold. Subsidence should gradually
decrease this evening as another shortwave trough located over
northern Colorado, along with a developing lee side low over
southeastern Colorado, aid in continued thunderstorm formation over
the higher terrain of Colorado and New Mexico. Organization of these
thunderstorms off the Rockies of Colorado may occur leading to
another forward propagating MCS that progresses southeast through
eastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas late tonight. The MCS, and
any outflow that propagates from it, will have MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500
J/kg to interact with in the Oklahoma & far northern Texas Panhandles
which may help sustain it`s forward progression. Increasing
southwesterly flow over the western and southwestern portions of the
combined Panhandles due to the aforementioned lee side low will bring
in slightly drier air, which may preclude any convective activity
starting or making it to that region. Have opted to keep mention of
thunderstorms for the northern and eastern portions of the combined
Panhandles to handle this potential, and will monitor downstream
potential to see if convection can propagate further west than
presently forecasted.

On Thursday, the ridge over the desert southwest is progged to
weaken and move southeast into western Texas. Height decreases across
the combined Panhandles, along with increasing frontogenesis along
the quasi-stationary boundary, low level theta-e ridging, and
moderate isentropic ascent should all combine to provide a favorable
environment for convective initiation. Diabatic heating through the
day Thursday will contribute to a moderately unstable environment,
with MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg.  Storm motion through the day
will also be fairly slow, with east to northeast motion along and to
the south of the boundary of 15 to 20 kts. Should any storms become
right movers, this motion will be slower still at roughly 10 kts.
Therefore, the other concern with these storms will be heavy
rainfall in an environment with around 1.25 to 1.50 inches of PWV.

On Friday, the ridge will be located over central Texas presenting a
more southwesterly to westerly flow over the combined Panhandles. A quasi-
stationary frontal boundary will still be present across the
northern and northeastern portions of the combined Panhandles though
it will become more diffuse through the day in a moist environment.
Strong isentropic lift along this boundary, PWV values around 1.25 to
1.50 inches, and weak diffluence aloft due to a passing shortwave may
support another round of thunderstorms through the day on Friday
mainly over the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle. Bulk
shear in the convective environment will be forecasted to be slightly
higher at 25 to 30 kts, with higher values just north of the CWA.

Bieda

&&

.Long Term...Saturday through Tuesday Night...An upper level short
wave is projected to move through Colorado and New Mexico on
Saturday morning and make it to the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles by
Saturday evening. At the surface, the stationary front should start
moving eastward through during the morning hours and shift southerly
winds at the surface to the north. As this feature approaches and
moves through the area, showers and thunderstorms will likely impact
our area. Maximum temperatures should be near the upper 80s in the
far northwestern portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, and
be closer to the upper 90s in the far southeastern portions of the
Texas Panhandle. Elsewhere, temperatures should stay in the mid 90s.

Once the upper level short wave moves past the area late in the day
on Sunday, upper level ridging should begin to build in from the
northwest and return the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles to
northwesterly flow aloft. Overnight, winds should transition to a
more southerly direction for Monday. Around this time in the
forecast, the models begin to disagree some as the ECMWF goes with a
more zonal flow aloft whereas the GFS keeps the area under more
amplified ridge and more meridional flow. This difference will result
in contrasting solutions regarding precipitation as the ECMWF has
more rain forecast than the GFS. For now have decided to go with a
blended consensus due to continued disagreements between modeling
solutions, and have included lower end chances for precipitation.

Tuesday is a bit tricky as the ECMWF has an embedded shortwave
moving through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles while the GFS has
the feature further north and moving through portions of Nebraska.
Both solutions bring an increased chance for rain Tuesday evening
and overnight, the only difference is timing and location. For now,
have kept a slight chance for rain in the central and eastern
portions of the area. Temperatures will gradually get warmer through
the weekend and early parts of next week with high temperatures on
Tuesday reaching the upper 90`s and approaching the century mark in
the far southeastern portions of the Texas Panhandle.

Lorenzen

&&

.Aviation...Previous Discussion...18Z TAF Cycle...An upper high over
the four corners region will build slowly east through 18Z Thursday.
VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites through the TAF
forecast period. A frontal boundary across southwest Kansas along
with a northwesterly upper flow across the Panhandles will contribute
to possible convection later today and this evening at the Amarillo
TAF site. Will include a Tempo Group from around 23Z today to around
03Z Thursday or so. Another convective complex is expected to push
south and east across the northern Panhandles later tonight and
Thursday morning, similar to late last night and this morning, and
will include a Tempo Group for convection at both the Dalhart and
Guymon TAF sites between about 10Z to 14Z Thursday for this
possibility. Southwest to south winds should back around to the south
and southeast after 00Z Thursday 5 to 15 knots.

Schneider

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                93  66  95  66  94 /  50  20  30  20  20
Beaver OK                  95  68  95  65  86 /  60  30  50  60  40
Boise City OK              95  63  90  62  86 /  40  20  50  50  40
Borger TX                  96  69  97  67  95 /  70  20  40  30  20
Boys Ranch TX              96  67  97  66  96 /  30  20  30  30  20
Canyon TX                  93  65  96  66  94 /  40  20  20  20  20
Clarendon TX               91  66  95  68  94 /  50  20  20  20  20
Dalhart TX                 95  65  94  63  93 /  40  20  40  40  30
Guymon OK                  97  67  94  65  90 /  70  20  50  50  40
Hereford TX                93  65  96  65  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
Lipscomb TX                93  67  96  66  92 /  80  20  40  60  30
Pampa TX                   93  67  94  66  93 /  70  20  30  30  20
Shamrock TX                93  67  96  68  95 /  70  20  20  30  20
Wellington TX              94  68  97  71  97 /  50  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

98/10/11




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 292103
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
303 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Marginally moist and unstable conditions remain over the
Borderland, but the better moisture and instability have shifted
west over Arizona. Thus we will see fewer showers and
thunderstorms mostly focused west this evening and Thursday. That
same moisture returns Friday and Saturday to bring scattered
showers and storms to the area along with more clouds and cooler
temperatures. Sunday and July 4th moisture focuses back east to
keep rain chances better east of the Rio Grande, but all areas
will see slight chances. High pressure will also build in and warm
temperatures back to around 100 degrees to start next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
For this discussion...think of the moisture as working like a
pendulum. Swinging first west, then back over us, then to our
east.

Swinging WEST...
Flow around the upper high pressure feature anchored over the
southwestern states moved yesterday`s disturbance, plus the
deeper moisture, west into AZ. Our atmosphere is also warming
aloft. For our region this is bringing slightly drier air in and
reducing instability. The 12z EPZ sounding had a healthy amount of
deep moisture over the area at 1.34" PW. Models show that eroding
down to close to just over 1". That appears to be just enough to
significantly limit convective activity for all areas east of the
Continental Divide. Of course the area remains conditionally
marginally unstable, so it would only take an outflow boundary to
get the area started. The forecast will show scattered potential
west over Grant and Hidalgo counties, and isolated elsewhere.

This afternoon/evening pattern continues into Thursday with better
moisture west, and continued drying east. In fact the zones east
of the divide (poss exception SACs) will likely stay dry as PW
drops below 0.9" and the prog soundings indicate a stable
environment. May eliminate POPs for the THU period in the next
package; lowered them but left them in with mention for this
package to see if next suite of models runs stick with the drying.

Back over us...
Friday begins a "re"-moistening as an upper trough moves east
across AZ and pushes the deep moisture channel back into our
CWFA, especially over the western 1/2 of our area. PW`s creep back
up to near 1.5". The trough will also help to cut the stability
aloft with cooler temps and PVA to provide some forcing aloft.
Thus the region will go back to a moist and unstable state. Plenty
of clouds should keep temps cooler. PCPN/Storm chances will be
back in the 30-60% range for scattered coverage all zones from FRI
aftn- SAT aftn.

Back EAST...
Sunday the pendulum swings further east with drier air working
back in most of our region. Still a bit of residual moisture will
linger under a building ridge of high pressure, but the deeper
moisture will be to our east. Thus few to no pops west, with
continued chances for isolated/slight chance pops east. Monday
onward high pressure builds. Temperatures look to climb back to
around 100 degrees each day next week across the lowlands.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 30/00Z-01/00Z.
The upper level disturbance over the cwa yda along with its moisture
plume moved into Ariz. Isolated shwr/tstm east of the
Continental Divide and scattered west til 06z and less
activity all areas Thursday 18z-00z. Skies gnly 060-080SCT 100-40SCT
AND 250SCT-BKN. Isold areas VRB25-35KT 3-6SM -TSRA BKN050 BKN100.
Winds gnly SE 5-10 KTS BECOMING THRU AFTN MORE SSW 8 TO 13 KTS.

20-NOVLAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING WEST OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME LESS IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS EXCEPT WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. FRIDAY THE SAME DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD BACK INTO OUR
AREA AND AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS AREA
WIDE. THEN BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBUILDS BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

20-NOVLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 72  96  73  91 /  10  10   0  30
Sierra Blanca           67  92  68  89 /   0   0   0  20
Las Cruces              69  94  68  88 /  20  10   0  30
Alamogordo              69  95  69  90 /  20  10  10  30
Cloudcroft              53  73  53  69 /  30  10  20  60
Truth or Consequences   68  92  68  86 /  20  10  10  50
Silver City             63  86  62  79 /  40  30  30  70
Deming                  69  94  68  85 /  30  20  20  50
Lordsburg               68  90  66  85 /  30  30  30  70
West El Paso Metro      73  96  74  91 /  10  10   0  30
Dell City               66  96  67  93 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Hancock            72  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  20
Loma Linda              68  91  67  86 /   0   0   0  20
Fabens                  71  96  71  92 /  10   0   0  20
Santa Teresa            71  96  70  90 /  10  10   0  30
White Sands HQ          71  94  71  88 /  10  10   0  30
Jornada Range           66  94  66  87 /  20  10   0  30
Hatch                   68  96  68  89 /  20  10   0  40
Columbus                70  95  69  87 /  30  20  20  40
Orogrande               71  95  70  90 /  20  10   0  30
Mayhill                 55  81  56  77 /  20  10  20  50
Mescalero               55  82  55  77 /  30  10  20  50
Timberon                54  80  53  75 /  30  10  20  50
Winston                 56  83  56  78 /  30  40  20  70
Hillsboro               64  90  64  84 /  30  30  10  50
Spaceport               68  93  67  86 /  20  10   0  40
Lake Roberts            53  87  53  81 /  40  50  30  70
Hurley                  63  87  62  80 /  30  30  30  70
Cliff                   58  90  57  84 /  40  30  40  70
Mule Creek              53  87  53  82 /  40  40  40  60
Faywood                 63  90  62  82 /  40  30  20  70
Animas                  68  91  66  85 /  30  40  30  70
Hachita                 67  92  65  84 /  30  30  30  70
Antelope Wells          65  89  64  83 /  30  40  30  60
Cloverdale              63  84  62  78 /  40  50  30  70

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/20




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 292103
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
303 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Marginally moist and unstable conditions remain over the
Borderland, but the better moisture and instability have shifted
west over Arizona. Thus we will see fewer showers and
thunderstorms mostly focused west this evening and Thursday. That
same moisture returns Friday and Saturday to bring scattered
showers and storms to the area along with more clouds and cooler
temperatures. Sunday and July 4th moisture focuses back east to
keep rain chances better east of the Rio Grande, but all areas
will see slight chances. High pressure will also build in and warm
temperatures back to around 100 degrees to start next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
For this discussion...think of the moisture as working like a
pendulum. Swinging first west, then back over us, then to our
east.

Swinging WEST...
Flow around the upper high pressure feature anchored over the
southwestern states moved yesterday`s disturbance, plus the
deeper moisture, west into AZ. Our atmosphere is also warming
aloft. For our region this is bringing slightly drier air in and
reducing instability. The 12z EPZ sounding had a healthy amount of
deep moisture over the area at 1.34" PW. Models show that eroding
down to close to just over 1". That appears to be just enough to
significantly limit convective activity for all areas east of the
Continental Divide. Of course the area remains conditionally
marginally unstable, so it would only take an outflow boundary to
get the area started. The forecast will show scattered potential
west over Grant and Hidalgo counties, and isolated elsewhere.

This afternoon/evening pattern continues into Thursday with better
moisture west, and continued drying east. In fact the zones east
of the divide (poss exception SACs) will likely stay dry as PW
drops below 0.9" and the prog soundings indicate a stable
environment. May eliminate POPs for the THU period in the next
package; lowered them but left them in with mention for this
package to see if next suite of models runs stick with the drying.

Back over us...
Friday begins a "re"-moistening as an upper trough moves east
across AZ and pushes the deep moisture channel back into our
CWFA, especially over the western 1/2 of our area. PW`s creep back
up to near 1.5". The trough will also help to cut the stability
aloft with cooler temps and PVA to provide some forcing aloft.
Thus the region will go back to a moist and unstable state. Plenty
of clouds should keep temps cooler. PCPN/Storm chances will be
back in the 30-60% range for scattered coverage all zones from FRI
aftn- SAT aftn.

Back EAST...
Sunday the pendulum swings further east with drier air working
back in most of our region. Still a bit of residual moisture will
linger under a building ridge of high pressure, but the deeper
moisture will be to our east. Thus few to no pops west, with
continued chances for isolated/slight chance pops east. Monday
onward high pressure builds. Temperatures look to climb back to
around 100 degrees each day next week across the lowlands.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 30/00Z-01/00Z.
The upper level disturbance over the cwa yda along with its moisture
plume moved into Ariz. Isolated shwr/tstm east of the
Continental Divide and scattered west til 06z and less
activity all areas Thursday 18z-00z. Skies gnly 060-080SCT 100-40SCT
AND 250SCT-BKN. Isold areas VRB25-35KT 3-6SM -TSRA BKN050 BKN100.
Winds gnly SE 5-10 KTS BECOMING THRU AFTN MORE SSW 8 TO 13 KTS.

20-NOVLAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING WEST OUT OF THE AREA. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME LESS IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS EXCEPT WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. FRIDAY THE SAME DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD BACK INTO OUR
AREA AND AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS AREA
WIDE. THEN BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBUILDS BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

20-NOVLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 72  96  73  91 /  10  10   0  30
Sierra Blanca           67  92  68  89 /   0   0   0  20
Las Cruces              69  94  68  88 /  20  10   0  30
Alamogordo              69  95  69  90 /  20  10  10  30
Cloudcroft              53  73  53  69 /  30  10  20  60
Truth or Consequences   68  92  68  86 /  20  10  10  50
Silver City             63  86  62  79 /  40  30  30  70
Deming                  69  94  68  85 /  30  20  20  50
Lordsburg               68  90  66  85 /  30  30  30  70
West El Paso Metro      73  96  74  91 /  10  10   0  30
Dell City               66  96  67  93 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Hancock            72  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  20
Loma Linda              68  91  67  86 /   0   0   0  20
Fabens                  71  96  71  92 /  10   0   0  20
Santa Teresa            71  96  70  90 /  10  10   0  30
White Sands HQ          71  94  71  88 /  10  10   0  30
Jornada Range           66  94  66  87 /  20  10   0  30
Hatch                   68  96  68  89 /  20  10   0  40
Columbus                70  95  69  87 /  30  20  20  40
Orogrande               71  95  70  90 /  20  10   0  30
Mayhill                 55  81  56  77 /  20  10  20  50
Mescalero               55  82  55  77 /  30  10  20  50
Timberon                54  80  53  75 /  30  10  20  50
Winston                 56  83  56  78 /  30  40  20  70
Hillsboro               64  90  64  84 /  30  30  10  50
Spaceport               68  93  67  86 /  20  10   0  40
Lake Roberts            53  87  53  81 /  40  50  30  70
Hurley                  63  87  62  80 /  30  30  30  70
Cliff                   58  90  57  84 /  40  30  40  70
Mule Creek              53  87  53  82 /  40  40  40  60
Faywood                 63  90  62  82 /  40  30  20  70
Animas                  68  91  66  85 /  30  40  30  70
Hachita                 67  92  65  84 /  30  30  30  70
Antelope Wells          65  89  64  83 /  30  40  30  60
Cloverdale              63  84  62  78 /  40  50  30  70

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

14/20




000
FXUS64 KCRP 292052
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
352 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

A E-W oriented weak/quasi-stationary boundary persists across the
CWA/MSA per weak MSAS MSLP field with convection developing along
it. Expect convection to dissipate before 03Z Thursday when
considering NAM deterministic CIN values. Concur with the GFS
deterministic that the upper ridge to the NW will slowly build
over the CWA/MSA during the period while the upper trough axis
over the WRN Gulf slowly moves East. ECMWF/NAM/GFS deterministic
maintain the weak/quasi-stationary E-W boundary across the ERN
CWA/MSA at least until Thursday afternoon. The NAM deterministic
maintain above normal PWAT values over the ERN CWA and below
normal West. Anticipate that the combination of significant
moisture and moisture convergence along the boundary will
contribute to noctural convection over the MSA after 06Z
Thursday...then isolated/scattered convection over the ERN CWA/MSA
after 15Z Thursday...yet limited owing to weak upper subsidence.
Isolated convection may develop again over the MSA after 06Z
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

A hot and humid holiday weekend is expected with isold sea breeze
convection possible on Friday. Latest model runs prog a mid level
inverted trof to be draped across the region on Friday. This trof
combined with sufficient moisture is expected to result in isold
convection along the sea breeze. High pressure is progd to build
across the area through the weekend with little to no chance of
precip and very hot temps. Highs are expected to reach around 105
across the western CWA and around 100 for areas west of highway
281 by Sat and continuing into the first part of next week. Heat
indices may approach 110 at times which is Heat Advisory criteria,
but will generally be 105 to 109 each day. Surface winds are
expected to strengthen to moderate levels across S TX each
afternoon, especially Sunday through middle of next week. Moderate
winds are expected over the coastal waters as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  93  76  95  78  /  10  20  10  20  10
Victoria          74  93  74  95  76  /  10  20  10  20  10
Laredo            78  99  78 102  80  /  30  10  10   0   0
Alice             75  97  75  98  75  /  20  20  10  20  10
Rockport          78  90  79  93  81  /  10  20  10  20  10
Cotulla           76  99  76 102  77  /  20  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        75  96  76  96  76  /  20  20  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       79  89  80  92  81  /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 292052
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
352 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

A E-W oriented weak/quasi-stationary boundary persists across the
CWA/MSA per weak MSAS MSLP field with convection developing along
it. Expect convection to dissipate before 03Z Thursday when
considering NAM deterministic CIN values. Concur with the GFS
deterministic that the upper ridge to the NW will slowly build
over the CWA/MSA during the period while the upper trough axis
over the WRN Gulf slowly moves East. ECMWF/NAM/GFS deterministic
maintain the weak/quasi-stationary E-W boundary across the ERN
CWA/MSA at least until Thursday afternoon. The NAM deterministic
maintain above normal PWAT values over the ERN CWA and below
normal West. Anticipate that the combination of significant
moisture and moisture convergence along the boundary will
contribute to noctural convection over the MSA after 06Z
Thursday...then isolated/scattered convection over the ERN CWA/MSA
after 15Z Thursday...yet limited owing to weak upper subsidence.
Isolated convection may develop again over the MSA after 06Z
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

A hot and humid holiday weekend is expected with isold sea breeze
convection possible on Friday. Latest model runs prog a mid level
inverted trof to be draped across the region on Friday. This trof
combined with sufficient moisture is expected to result in isold
convection along the sea breeze. High pressure is progd to build
across the area through the weekend with little to no chance of
precip and very hot temps. Highs are expected to reach around 105
across the western CWA and around 100 for areas west of highway
281 by Sat and continuing into the first part of next week. Heat
indices may approach 110 at times which is Heat Advisory criteria,
but will generally be 105 to 109 each day. Surface winds are
expected to strengthen to moderate levels across S TX each
afternoon, especially Sunday through middle of next week. Moderate
winds are expected over the coastal waters as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  93  76  95  78  /  10  20  10  20  10
Victoria          74  93  74  95  76  /  10  20  10  20  10
Laredo            78  99  78 102  80  /  30  10  10   0   0
Alice             75  97  75  98  75  /  20  20  10  20  10
Rockport          78  90  79  93  81  /  10  20  10  20  10
Cotulla           76  99  76 102  77  /  20  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        75  96  76  96  76  /  20  20  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       79  89  80  92  81  /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KSJT 292042
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
342 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

An upper ridge currently over the southern Rockies will move
southeast into West Texas by late Thursday, which will result in dry
conditions across West Central Texas the next 24 hours.

As of mid afternoon, isolated convection has developed across far
southwest Oklahoma. With the ridge west of the area, we remain in
northwest flow aloft, which would be favorable for activity to make
a run at our far northern counties towards evening. The latest HRRR
indicates this scenario but quickly dissipates the convection with
the loss of daytime heating. Given the isolated nature of the
convection so far in Oklahoma, confidence remains low concerning
rain chances across the northern Big Country and will leave POPs out
of the forecast this evening. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s
and lower 70s, with highs on Thursday in the lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Fairly benign weather for the long term portion of the forecast,
as hot and dry will be the main features. Upper level high
pressure will move across the Southern Plains late this week,
shifting all the way over the Southeast US by the weekend. Enough
ridging in place to keep most of the area dry, but a weak
shortwave may produce a few storms across the extreme western
sections of the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley on Saturday, and
then across the northern Big Country north of I-20 on Sunday and
Monday. Upper level ridge takes hold again for next week and the
dry areawide conditions return.

As for temperatures, abundant recent rainfall should help mitigate
temperatures a few degrees. Will keep high temperatures for most
areas in the mid and upper 90s in our warmest days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  71  94  73  95 /   5   0   5   5
San Angelo  69  94  73  95 /   5   0   0   0
Junction  69  95  70  97 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

24/07




000
FXUS64 KFWD 292034
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
334 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
With northeasterly flow in place at the lower levels, drier and
cooler air has infiltrated the region and conditions are slightly
more pleasant today. Some weak convection popped up west and
northwest of the CWA earlier today where better instability
resides, but what`s left of this activity near Vernon should
dissipate by early evening. Clear and tranquil weather should
prevail tonight with temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s
for lows. Another very warm, sunny and dry day is expected on
Thursday with highs a few degrees warmer than today.

An upper level high sitting across the Four Corners region will
result in northerly flow aloft through early Friday, which raises
the concern that convection across the Central Plains will impact
this region. North to northwest flow aloft in June is notorious
for bringing surprise convective events much farther south than
the models forecast, so certainly it is something that warrants
our attention. For tonight it appears convection will tend to
originate too far north to survive long enough to impact our CWA.
In addition the best instability axis and location of the low
level jet suggests western Oklahoma to possibly as far south as
northwest Texas would be the favored zone for any long-lived
southward moving MCS activity through early morning.

However, on Thursday a shortwave trough on the fringe of the upper
high will drop southeast and reach Oklahoma during the afternoon
and evening hours. Model guidance is all in good agreement in
showing rising precipitable water values across Oklahoma during
the day (an indication of lift aloft and low level moisture
convergence). This should result in scattered convection by Thursday
evening across Oklahoma. Given the moderate northerly flow aloft,
some of this activity may wander south of the Red River and impact
the northern zones late Thursday night. Since the instability
over North Texas will be limited by the recent intrusion of drier
continental air as well as a lack of daytime heating, do not
expect any type of organized MCS or significant convective cluster
to survive or impact the CWA. Instead this would be more elevated
shower/storm type activity that dissipates early Friday morning.
Friday may have an increase in mid-high clouds especially in the
morning hours, but otherwise afternoon sunshine will ensure
another hot day with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.

The upper level high will shift southeast and over the CWA on
Saturday. This will help high temps begin to warm another degree
or two. However the approach of a strong shortwave trough into
the Plains this weekend will cause our low level southerly winds
to increase. While the stronger winds will certainly keep
overnight lows warmer (and near 80 in some locations), it will
limit how hot we will get during the day as well. Upper 90s to
near 100 are possible Sunday into next week, but DFW and Waco may
not notch their first 100 degree day until after the weekend.
Regardless, these daytime temperatures combined with the
increasing Gulf moisture will result in heat index values also
reaching 105 Sunday into next week, which may require heat
advisories to be posted.

There is one shot of rain in the extended part of the forecast
that looks to occur on Sunday night and the 4th of July. The upper
ridge will actually weaken quite a bit by Sunday as the
aforementioned shortwave trough moves into the area from the
west. This feature should provide lift and moisture/instability
will be sufficient for some thunderstorms. Right now the model
guidance is a bit spread on the prospects for rainfall, with the
GFS and Canadian the wettest, showing precipitable water climbing
to near 2.3 inches Sunday night and resulting in some clusters of
intense convection over the region. The ECMWF is drier, however
its latest run did trend the shortwave trough stronger like the
GFS and has brought QPF into the Red River Valley region Monday
morning. For now confidence is not high, but have showed a 20%
chance Sunday night and Monday over generally the northern half of
the region. After this shortwave trough moves through, dry weather
looks to prevail for quite some time as the upper high become
established over the region once again.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1251 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast
period at all TAF sites. Winds so far have generally been light
and variable, but will continue to become predominantly ESE at 5
to 10 kts this afternoon. Additional veering of the surface winds
should occur towards the end of the forecast period, but for
simplicity, will continue with a one-line TAF for the Metroplex
sites.

Any shower or thunderstorm that manages to develop this afternoon
is expected to remain west of the region--generally in the
vicinity of a remnant outflow boundary near a Wichita Falls to
Throckmorton to Sweetwater line.

Carlaw


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  97  78  97  78 /   0   5  10  10   5
Waco                73  96  75  96  75 /   0   0   5  10   5
Paris               71  95  72  95  73 /   0  10  20  10   5
Denton              72  96  73  95  75 /   0  10  20  10   5
McKinney            72  95  74  95  75 /   0  10  20  10   5
Dallas              77  97  79  97  79 /   0   5  10  10   5
Terrell             74  95  74  96  75 /   0   5  10  10   5
Corsicana           75  97  76  97  75 /   0   0  10  10   5
Temple              73  95  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       70  96  71  96  73 /   0   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLUB 292007
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
307 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Isolated mid afternoon convection will be most likely develop along
and ahead of outflow boundary which moved across the area this
morning. That boundary was located from Morton to Wellman to south
of Snyder at 19z. Analysis indicates MLCapes ranging from 500-1500
J/KG across the central and western South Plains. Still some
convective inhibition to deal with off the Caprock. Coverage should
be spotty again this afternoon with gusty 40-50 mph winds the
primary threat in vicinity of cells. Small chance of some
small hail with more vigorous pulse updrafts.

Hi res models indicating some scattered activity farther north
moving S/SW out of S/SE Panhandle perhaps moving into the central S
Plains in the 22z-02z time frame...at which time the loss of surface
heating should end all deep moist convection. Temps have been
running a little cooler thanks to earlier outflow but expect most
locales to reach 90 deg by mid/late afternoon. Upper ridge is progged
to build farther east over the area...and that fact along with
associated developing cap may preclude most moist convection
Thursday with the exception of the southern Panhandle where
instability and NW flow/weakness along periphery of ridge may allow a
few storms to initiate and move south. Temperatures a little warmer
Thursday...in the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...
Upper level high pressure will be overhead on Friday and should
block most precip chances while increasing temps. Models continue to
stall a front in the northern Texas Panhandle early Friday which
would keep convection north of the FA. The best shot at
thunderstorms entering the area would be from outflow pushing
southward from convection along the front. The front will remain
mostly over the northern Texas Panhandle/southwestern Kansas through
Saturday afternoon before being pushes away by an approaching upper
level shortwave trof. The trof will be on the weak side as it will
be pushing through the southern edge of a ridge, but it should bring
in a narrow band of monsoonal moisture from the southwest allowing
for scattered convective chances into Independence Day.

Beyond Independence Day the models continue to diverge with the
upper level pattern. The ECMWF pushes a few very weak shortwave
ridges across the region while the GFS builds a ridge over the
region. Precip chances between the two models seem to come from
various surface trofs with the ECMWF being more aggressive due to
the multiple shortwave trof passages. As far as temps go, either way
you look at it we will be warm and in the 90s. The route of the GFS
would allow for slightly warmer temps due to the overhead ridge.
Aldrich

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

06/51




000
FXUS64 KHGX 292006
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
306 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Currently... a few showers and thunderstorms are moving
southwestward throughout SE Texas with more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity out over the Gulf. Inland activity should
gradually diminish throughout the late afternoon and evening,
while the showers and storms out over the water will likely
persist through Friday. Thursday is expected to be somewhat drier
than today across inland areas, however isolated to scattered
showers and storms are expected to return Friday afternoon. A much
drier pattern is forecast beginning this weekend as a ridge
builds in overhead.

These dry conditions will also allow high temperatures to creep
up into the weekend. Highs are forecast to range from the low/mid
90s for the next couple of days before slowly creeping upward to
the 94-97 degree range. Heat index values will also creep up
through the next several days, generally reaching the 100-110
degree range Sunday through Wednesday. 11

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly light and variable winds to start, but gradually become more
consistently onshore through Friday along with continued, but lower
chances for showers or a thunderstorm. By Friday night or Saturday,
a developing low over the western part of the state should induce
stronger winds over the waters. Waves will lag the strengthening
winds, but should continue to build into the latter part of the
weekend. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  94  75  95  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              76  95  76  95  77 /  10  20  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            79  90  81  91  82 /  30  30  10  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...25




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291958
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
258 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Mid-level shear axis
and a weak surface boundary continue to slowly sag southward and
approach the CWA from the north. Widely scattered thundershowers
have initiated over mainly Zapata county where it appears
aforementioned boundary is interacting with better
instability/surface heating. Sea-breeze convection has been
underwhelming thus far, possibly owing to shower and storm
activity (and associated cloud cover) over the Gulf this morning
leading to less thermal contrast between the coast and offshore
waters. Also an enhanced stabilizing effect due to the earlier
convection may be in place behind the sea-breeze front.

Moving into tonight, NAM/GFS/RAP suggesting that convection may
continue firing over western counties through early evening...around
03Z or so, and this was well-represented in inherited PoP grid.  By
later tonight, vorticity lobe/shear axis finally moves south of the
area.  However, lower-level moisture that has pooled along the
boundary a bit slower to move out, especially over SE part of CWA.
GFS keeps PW near 2.0" over this area on Thursday but NAM brings it
down to 1.6-1.7" in the afternoon.  MOS guidance not enthused so
will keep PoP`s isolated this area due to possible sea-breeze effect
and silent out west where drying will be more pronounced as mid-level
high center moves into West Texas from NM.  Another hot afternoon
will be in store as heat indices range from 103-108 degrees most
areas.  Expect most all land areas to stay dry Thursday night as
upper high moves closer, approaching central Texas by late Thu.
night.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): The forecast period begins
with a 500mb ridge over Texas with a mid level weakness over the
northern Gulf coast region. However, the strong subtropical ridge
will flatten out as it moves slowly to the east through the
weekend. This mid level pattern will support hot and dry
conditions across Deep South Texas through the holiday weekend
into next week. Temperatures will range from around 90 at the
beaches, low to mid 90s across the lower Valley, and the upper 90s
to several degrees above the century mark across the upper Valley
and the west. Afternoon heat index values will be in the 105 to
110 degree range, with a few sites reaching up to 112, mainly
across the upper Valley. A heat advisory may be needed this
weekend into early next week. Breezy conditions will develop over
the weekend as broad surface high pressure across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico interacts with lower pressure over west Texas.

&&

.MARINE:(Now through Thursday night): Light to moderate winds,
courtesy of a weak pressure gradient, and low seas continue
through the short term. Southerly winds increase a bit to moderate
levels Thursday night in response to pressure falls inland over
the interior but still stay well below SCEC levels.

Friday through Monday: Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas will prevail through Saturday due to broad high
pressure over the Gulf. Winds will begin to strength and seas will
slowly build Saturday night into Monday as the pressure gradient
increases. Small craft exercise caution conditions will be possible
Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          77  94  78  95 /  10  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            75  96  76  97 /  10  20  10  10
MCALLEN              76  99  77  99 /  20  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      76 101  77 102 /  30  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  86  80  89 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

53/63/58




000
FXUS64 KMAF 291950
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
250 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough centered roughly over the Four
Corners, which has helped keep temperatures in West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico below normal the past few days.  Area radars
show weak convection developing over the higher terrain in upslope
flow, and this should diminish w/loss of daytime heating.  To the
NE, not much became of the boundary last night`s MCS sent this way,
but both the NAM and latest HRRR suggest another could redevelop
and move into the Permian Basin late this afternoon and evening.
Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the main concerns.

Otherwise, the theta-e ridge is forecast to move west over the next
couple of days, depriving the higher terrain of a focus for
convection, before moving back east Saturday as the ridge begins
developing SE into the region.  Theta-e ridge is then forecast to
run SW-NE thru the area into the extended, for a slight chance of
spotty convection each day.

W/the ridge developing back into Texas, thicknesses are scheduled to
increase thru the weekend, sending temps back toward the century
mark just in time for Independence Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  95  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       66  95  66  96 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         70  97  71  96 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  67  95  70  96 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 65  89  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          66  93  65  94 /  10   0   0  10
Marfa                          60  87  62  88 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           66  95  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         68  94  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           67  96  70  97 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/44




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291948
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
248 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Expecting isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening mainly across the coastal Plains and southwest
counties. These showers and storms are expected to form along an
outflow boundary that extends from Rocksprings to San Antonio to
Cuero pushing to the southwest. Some of these storms could
produce localized heavy rain as pwats range from 1.6 to 2.0
inches. Also, stronger storms could produce wind gusts of 30 to 40
mph based on v-shaped forecast soundings and DCAPE values over
1000 J/Kg. This activity should come to an end early this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Dry and hot weather conditions
are in store for Thursday with isolated showers/storms confined to
the coastal Plains.



&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Subtropical high will continue to build across the southwest
region and push to the east for the next several days. This will
keep South Central Texas dry with limited shower/storm activity
across the coastal Plains due to seabreeze interaction. As the
subtropical high pushes to the east and over the area over the
weekend into next week, a warming trend is expected with highs in
the mid to upper 90s over much of the area and near 100 to 102
degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. Heat indices will range from
the 102 to 110 degrees over the weekend into next week during the
afternoon hours especially along and east of Interstate 35. We
could be issuing several Heat Advisories for areas along and south
of Highway 90 and east of I-35 during the Fourth of July weekend
holiday and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  96  74  96  75 /  -    0  -    0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  95  72  96  74 /   0  -   -   -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  95  72  96  74 /  -   -   -   -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            72  94  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  99  77 100  78 /  10  -   -    0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  95  73  95  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  95  72  97  75 /  -   -   -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  95  72  95  74 /  -   -   -   -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  94  74  96  75 /  -   10  -   10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  95  74  96  75 /  -   -   -    0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  96  75  97  76 /  -   -   -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire
Synoptic/Grids...17
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams




000
FXUS64 KCRP 291855
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
155 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Note aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated showers/thunderstorms anticipated this afternoon/early
evening primarily south of a Sinton to Encinal line. Predominate
VFR conditions. Predominate VFR overnight except for MVFR
conditions mainly west of U.S. 77 and east of State Road 16.
Mixture of VFR/MVFR ceilings early Thursday morning along with
isolated showers near the Coast generally south of Port Aransas.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 651 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Update for 12 aviation cycle.

AVIATION...

Today...VFR. Weak surface boundary continues to sag farther south
today touching off more isolated to possibly scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity later this afternoon with MVFR/IFR
conditions possible. Confidence on terminal impacts has decreased
at this time, given the very isolated activity expected, so we
remove tempos and replace with VCTS. Low to medium confidence
overall.

Tonight...VFR. Could see some pockets of MVFR/IFR fog around
KALI/KVCT but confidence not high at this time so refrain from
adding to tafs. Light south-southeasterly winds expected under a
veil of cirrus. Medium confidence.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

Current activity across the Gulf waters is being driven by a weak
surface trough, old boundary, that is slowly sagging towards the
south this morning over the waters. The boundary looks to be hung up
over the Coastal Bend with some isolated showers possible though a
majority of the activity will remain offshore this morning. PWATs
continue to surge into the 2 to 2.25 inch mark, well above normal,
so still expecting scattered convection to develop during the
afternoon hours across the Coastal Bend and possibly west into the
Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains with outflow interactions.
Temperatures today will once again be on the hot side with low
triple digits west to mid-90s east.

With the loss in daytime heating expecting the scattered shower
activity to dwindle and head back offshore. Left over boundary may
remain offshore tonight so we continue with the chance PoPs and
leave the land areas dry. Still have ample moisture around on
Thursday but looking like less forcing to go around so while not
completely void of convection we should be more isolated in nature
outside of the seabreeze interaction. Temperatures much the same as
on Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...

.Dangerous Heat Conditions Possible Over 4th of July Weekend...

A prolonged period of hot and dry conditions is prog to become
established late this week and continue through the holiday weekend.
Center of H5 subtropical ridge is prog to drift across S TX late
this week with strong flat ridging to exist over the weekend into
early next week. This will aid in an increase in mid level temps and
associated subsidence. H85 high pressure center is prog to shift
east through the forecast period and become centered over FL.
Position of the H85 high will allow for drier air in the H9 to H8
layer to advect across the CWA...limiting any precip of significance.
H85 temps also increase in response to the drier layer...with values
approaching 30C across the Brush Country early next week. Despite
drier air around H85...guidance progs an influx of higher near
surface moisture values over the weekend/early next week as some
moisture is pulled northward from the Bay of Campeche. Combination of
all these factors should lead to several days in which afternoon heat
indices across many locations may reach/exceed Heat Advisory levels
/heat indices of 110 degrees or greater/. Addition of influx of
dewpoints from afternoon seabreeze passage each afternoon will likely
further aid in high heat indices /before temps cool slightly from
post seabreeze airmass/. Pressure gradient force also strengthens
over the weekend as low pressure develops across the northern Plains.
Result will be almost a heat furnace effect with breezy/windy
conditions occurring with hot temperatures. Mostly sunny skies over
the holiday weekend due to limited moisture /though some daily Cu
still expected/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  93  75  95  78  /  10  30  10  10  10
Victoria          74  93  74  95  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
Laredo            77 100  78 102  79  /  20  10  10   0   0
Alice             73  97  73  98  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
Rockport          78  90  78  93  81  /  20  30  10  10  10
Cotulla           75  99  75 102  77  /  10  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        74  95  74  96  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       79  90  79  92  81  /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291754 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1254 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Sea-breeze-triggered convection has been unimpressive
so far today. Boundary is readily apparent on radar imagery moving
inland and approaching BRO at this time, but suspect that earlier
shower and thunderstorm activity over the Gulf has further
stabilized the airmass behind the sea-breeze front. Because of
this, have significantly downplayed thunderstorm chances at BRO
and HRL with only VCSH written into TAF`s with timing along the
sea-breeze boundary. Perhaps a different story at MFE. Visible
satellite imagery shows a more widespread cumulus field over the
western CWA, so sea-breeze boundary may generate slightly more
widespread convection there as it encounters better instability.
Models also suggesting higher precip chances over the western CWA
into the evening, so will go with VCTS at MFE 21-01Z.

Upper-level shear axis finally sags south of the Border by late
tonight, with some drying aloft behind it. Forecast soundings
suggest a low-level inversion to form so an associated low-cloud
deck also possible. Not confident enough to forecast the MVFR
ceiling that far out in time, but will insert SCT015 at all
terminals for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...A line of convection extends from just northwest of
Corpus Christi east over the Gulf of Mexico. At this time the
line is stationary but is expected to begin a slow southward
movement later this morning. confidence is low if this line works
its way into TAF terminal sites however, additional development
from outflow from this convection or thunderstorm development from
sea breeze interaction is possible this afternoon. VFR conditions
to prevail outside of any convection with a sct-bkn cumulus field
during the afternoon. surface winds will be light from the
southeast during the day and southwest overnight. some strong
gusty winds near thunderstorms are likely.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Eastern-South Texas remains
on the eastern periphery of the large scale ridge centered over
the 4 corners area and along the western end of an upper trough
extending across the northwest-northern Gulf of Mexico. This
places our CWA under a weak upper shear zone with sufficient
moisture below 700mb to allow for isolated to scattered convection
today through Thursday. Short term models continue to indicate a
residual surface trough or shear line over the northwest Gulf and
eastern Texas which is progged to move south to southwest under
the general mid to upper level northeast flow. Both NAM and GFS
indicate higher moisture content along the shear line pushing
precipitable water values over 2 inches later today and tonight.
The higher moisture values and the shear line remain along the Rio
Grande River through Thursday with some limited drier air working
into the northwest zones as the center of the upper ridge edges
closer.

Overall, looking for a isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms anywhere in the CWA later today, tonight and
Thursday. Sea breeze could help initiate convection across the
coastal counties the next two days today with light surface winds,
while out flow boundaries from South Central Texas could allow for
thunderstorms to move into or develop across Northern and Western
zones mainly in the evening hours. Although, not expecting severe
weather can not rule out some of the storms to produce gusty winds
along with locally heavy rainfall. Forecast soundings show an
inverted V signature across the northern and western zones where
some drier boundary layer air resides. This may result in strong
gusty winds within a few thunderstorms.

As for temperatures both max and mins continue near seasonal
averages today and Thursday with the expected isolated to
scattered convection. While the heat indices remain in the 102-107
degrees range.

Long Term (Thursday night through Tuesday): Mid level ridging will
initially remain aloft over the Southwest United States while a
weakness is above the mouth of the Mississippi River. In general
however, a broad, flat mid level pattern will develop, supporting a
hot, dry forecast. Rain chances will remain limited during the long
term while temperatures creep higher. Highs in the upper 80s can be
expected at the beach, with lower 90s along the coast to a handful
of degrees above the century mark out west each afternoon. Afternoon
heat index values will register in the 105 to 110 degree range, with
a few marks of up to 112, especially across Starr County, thus
threatening heat advisory conditions.

MARINE:
Now through Thursday...Weak surface boundary over the northern
gulf will keep a weak wind and low seas regime across the Lower
Texas Coastal waters the next few day. Expect a southeast to east
sea breeze during the day and a light west to southwest land
breeze at night. seas to remain 2 feet or less. The surface
boundary may allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms anytime today through Thursday. Any of these
thunderstorms could produce locally higher winds and seas long
with lightning strikes.

Thursday night through Sunday...Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas will persist through Saturday as broad high pressure
covers the Gulf. Increasing wind strength Saturday night through
Sunday will result in slowly building seas. Small craft exercise
caution conditions will be possible Saturday night through Sunday
with southeast winds becoming moderate to fresh. Seas will build to
between moderate and high by Monday, also making exercise caution
conditions possible.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

53-SCHROEDER/63




000
FXUS64 KFWD 291751
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1251 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast
period at all TAF sites. Winds so far have generally been light
and variable, but will continue to become predominantly ESE at 5
to 10 kts this afternoon. Additional veering of the surface winds
should occur towards the end of the forecast period, but for
simplicity, will continue with a one-line TAF for the Metroplex
sites.

Any shower or thunderstorm that manages to develop this afternoon
is expected to remain west of the region--generally in the
vicinity of a remnant outflow boundary near a Wichita Falls to
Throckmorton to Sweetwater line.

Carlaw

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/
The remnants of the MCS which pushed south through Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas last night has sent some high clouds across the
area early this morning, otherwise it has all but dissipated. A
second MCS currently moving south through southwest Kansas will
approach from the northwest during the morning hours, but it is
expected to diminish before reaching our northwestern counties.
These systems are moving within the anticyclonic flow around an
upper ridge currently centered over the Desert Southwest. The
ridge is progged to develop eastward across the Texas and the
Southern Plains over the next few days, bringing a return to the
hot dry weather across North and Central Texas for the rest of the
week. There is an outside chance that another convective complex
will graze the northern counties tonight, but probabilities for
any precip reaching the area remain low.

Northeast flow at the surface will veer to more of an easterly
direction today before returning to the southeast Thursday. A
slow return of low level moisture will then ensue, which when
combined with the upper 90s high temperatures, will lead to heat
indices in the 100 to 105 range Friday through the weekend.

By Sunday, the ridge is forecast to flatten out with zonal flow
developing across the CONUS. A shortwave trough will traverse the
Southern Plains Sunday Night into Independence Day, bringing a
chance of convection across parts of the area just in time for
Fourth of July festivities. At this time, it looks like these rain
chances will be confined to counties immediately north of the
Dallas-Fort Worth area where the best lift from the shortwave will
occur. Seasonably hot and rain-free conditions are expected
elsewhere. However, we will need to keep track of future model
solutions regarding the shortwave, as a farther south track would
warrant expanding POPs farther south and vice versa.

Dry weather will return by the middle of next week as the ridge
once again strengthens overhead.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  78  98  77  98 /   0   5   5   5   5
Waco                95  75  97  74  97 /  10   5   5   5   5
Paris               95  73  95  73  93 /   0   5   5   5  10
Denton              95  74  96  74  95 /   0   5   5   5  10
McKinney            95  73  95  74  94 /   0   5   5   5  10
Dallas              97  78  98  78  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
Terrell             95  75  96  74  95 /   5   5   5   5   5
Corsicana           95  75  97  76  97 /   5   5   5   5   5
Temple              94  73  96  73  96 /  10   5   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       94  71  96  72  95 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

90/92




000
FXUS64 KSJT 291742
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1242 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24
hours. Could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm develop
across the southern terminals this afternoon but coverage
will be too sparse to consider mentioning in the TAF`s.
Expect light winds the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours with light northeast winds to east winds
less than 8 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper ridge over the 4-corners region will move slowly southeast
towards West Central Texas today. This should suppress most shower
and thunderstorm development, but 1 or 2 storms cannot be ruled
out. Have a slight chance of thunderstorms along and south of I-10
from Iraan to Ozona to Sonora where a dissipated cold front may
provide a focus for development. Otherwise temperatures today are
expected to rise to highs in the lower to mid 90s with lows
tonight in the lower 70s.

04

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

By Thursday, the center of an upper level high pressure area will
be located near the Concho Valley. This area of upper ridging will
remain in the Texas area through next week. The ridge will be
slightly weakened briefly from Saturday night into Monday as
shortwave energy from northwestern Mexico is pulled northeast
into the westerly flow on the northern side of the high pressure
area. As this shortwave moves through the Texas panhandle into
northern Oklahoma, we could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm
Sunday into Monday, mainly north and west of a Throckmorton, to
Anson, to Sterling City line. Otherwise, we will see warmer
temperatures, and dry weather. Have not gone as hot as the MEX
guidance numbers later in the forecast, as wet soils should limit
heating for the areas that saw rainfall these past few days.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  71  94  73 /  10   0   5   0
San Angelo  93  70  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
Junction  94  70  93  71 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/24




000
FXUS64 KSJT 291742
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1242 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected across the terminals the next 24
hours. Could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm develop
across the southern terminals this afternoon but coverage
will be too sparse to consider mentioning in the TAF`s.
Expect light winds the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours with light northeast winds to east winds
less than 8 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper ridge over the 4-corners region will move slowly southeast
towards West Central Texas today. This should suppress most shower
and thunderstorm development, but 1 or 2 storms cannot be ruled
out. Have a slight chance of thunderstorms along and south of I-10
from Iraan to Ozona to Sonora where a dissipated cold front may
provide a focus for development. Otherwise temperatures today are
expected to rise to highs in the lower to mid 90s with lows
tonight in the lower 70s.

04

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

By Thursday, the center of an upper level high pressure area will
be located near the Concho Valley. This area of upper ridging will
remain in the Texas area through next week. The ridge will be
slightly weakened briefly from Saturday night into Monday as
shortwave energy from northwestern Mexico is pulled northeast
into the westerly flow on the northern side of the high pressure
area. As this shortwave moves through the Texas panhandle into
northern Oklahoma, we could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm
Sunday into Monday, mainly north and west of a Throckmorton, to
Anson, to Sterling City line. Otherwise, we will see warmer
temperatures, and dry weather. Have not gone as hot as the MEX
guidance numbers later in the forecast, as wet soils should limit
heating for the areas that saw rainfall these past few days.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  71  94  73 /  10   0   5   0
San Angelo  93  70  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
Junction  94  70  93  71 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/24




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291739
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1239 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Bulk of today`s shower and storm coverage likely to be offshore
this afternoon. Still, with a couple cells beginning to pop up
upstream of the TAF sites from IAH to the coast, it looks like
short range guidance is on track for spotty development around the
southern sites. Kept VCSH in the TAF given the expectation that
today should be more anemic than yesterday, but can`t totally rule
out some lightning this afternoon. Also, many sites currently have
light east or variable winds, but flow just above the surface may
mix down this afternoon and result in a little bit better
established easterly winds. Finally, may see a sort of repeat of
this morning tomorrow morning with lingering moisture and ridge
that is only beginning to build into the area. So introduced
tentative mvfr vis/cigs at the sites that saw so this morning. 25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
The bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity should remain
offshore today, however another round of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will likely move through SE Texas from
the northeast during the afternoon. Updated the high temperature
forecast to reflect slightly cooler guidance and 12Z soundings
from Lake Charles and Corpus Christi. Heat index values will
remain in the low to mid 100s this afternoon.  11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
Expecting to see less SHRA/TSRA coverage today (best chances closer
to the coast and offshore) as some drier air filters into the area.
Kept VCSH in from IAH southward, and will adjust to mention TS if
needed. Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will dissipate
early this morning. We might have a few isolated spots with MVFR/IFR
concerns again early tomorrow morning.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...

Scattered shra/tsra are located well offshore early this morning where
an outflow boundary and deep moisture are present. Will likely see
a few shra/tsra develop closer to the coast later this morning.
With heating today expect scattered activity to develop across the
SE half of the area. However...precip coverage will be
considerably less as compared to yesterday as the 2+ inch
precipitable water values are south of the area and in the NW
Gulf. Will continue to see the atmosphere dry on Thursday. On
Friday will see moisture levels creep up across the SE 1/3rd of
the area which likely lead to sct mainly afternoon convection.

This weekend the mid/upper level ridge will be positioned overhead
and we should see little chc of rain and slightly warmer
temperatures. Heat indices will also be on the rise over the
holiday weekend. Early next week our weather is likely to
continue to be dominated by a broad mid/upper ridge across the
southern U.S. However, there are some weaknesses in the ridge
that could result in some day to day variability in rain chcs. 33

MARINE...
Through the end of the week, mainly light and variable winds and
low seas will persist.  There will be lingering chances for showers
and thunderstorms (and associated higher winds and seas) with a
focusing boundary in the area.  An onshore slow is expected to return
to the area on Thursday and Thursday night but will not begin to
strengthen until Friday night or Saturday when low pressure over West
Texas begins to deepen.  Moderate south winds and slightly elevated
seas will persist through the holiday weekend, and caution flags might
be needed.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      94  75  94  75  95 /  20  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              95  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            90  79  91  80  91 /  30  20  20  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291726
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1226 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with some scattered
low clouds. Light northeast winds will continue through this
afternoon and then switch to the east/southeast around tomorrow
morning. There is a very small chance for an afternoon shower, but
probabilities are too low to mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

UPDATE...
Remnants of overnight outflow boundaries show on visible satellite
images this morning. The most noticeable ones are across the Hill
Country and southwest of South Central Texas. These features are
good candidates for convective initiation this afternoon. HiRes
models suggest isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly along and
east of I-35 and south of Highway 90. Stronger storms could
produce localized heavy rain and wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph.
Rainfall amounts generally less than one tenth inch with very
isolated spots with up to one inch. Dry weather is expected for
much of the work week into the weekend.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions will prevail today through Thursday morning.
Localized BR with IFR/MVFR VSBYs expected early this morning and
possibly early Thursday morning where recent rains have fallen and
enhanced soil moisture. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA are possible S of KECU to
KHYI to KGYB line late morning into this afternoon. SHRA/TSRA may
bring brief IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. BR/SHRA/TSRA are currently not
expected at the TAF sites due to very low PROBS, however, will
monitor trends for possible later mention. NE to E winds 5 to 9
KTS mid morning through early evening, otherwise VRBL 5 KTS or
less are expected. SHRA/TSRA may produce winds gusts up to 35 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
South Central Texas is sandwiched between a mid-to-upper level
ridge centered over the Four Corners region and a progressive
trough moving through the Ohio and Lower Mississippi River
Valleys. Light northerly surface winds are in place across the
region as the outflow boundary that caused convection yesterday
is now located between Cotulla and Laredo extending east towards
Corpus Christi into the Gulf of Mexico. Storms forming off of this
boundary should continue its southward progression to prevent it
from being a focus for convective development across the region
tomorrow. However, moisture from another dissipating MCS near
Abilene moving southward along the eastern periphery of the ridge
may supply enough moisture to help generate convection during the
late morning and afternoon hours mainly along and south of a line
from Rocksprings to San Marcos to Lexington. Rain chances will
diminish through the afternoon from north to south as relatively
dry air and a developing subsidence inversion at midlevels reduces
CAPE. Any storms that develop may produce brief downbursts to 40
miles per hour given shallow inverted-V signatures, but coverage
should be very isolated.

Winds should be light and northerly during the afternoon to keep
today`s high temperatures 3-5 degrees cooler than on Tuesday
closer to seasonal normals. The mid-to-upper level ridge begins to
shift east into west Texas by Thursday to further increase
midlevel stability and limit isolated convection to Coastal
Plains. This will also begin a gradual warmup through the weekend
as temperatures increase back above seasonal normals.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The upper level ridge will continue moving east into Central Texas
on Friday and Saturday to further increase temperatures into the
mid 90s to lower 100s and eliminate all rain chances across the
region except for very isolated showers in the Coastal Plains. A
weak trough moving through the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma will
briefly flatten out the ridge on Sunday to help keep temperatures
from increasing further before a more elongated subtropical ridge
builds over the southern half of the country for the middle of
next week when temperatures may begin approaching the 100 degree
mark along the I-35 corridor. Heat indices will likely increase
above 105 degrees for areas along and east of I-35 by Saturday
through at least the middle of next week and likely longer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  74  96  74  96 /  10  -   -    0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  94  72  95  72  95 /  10   0   0   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  73  95  72  96 /  10  -   -    0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            93  72  94  73  94 /  10   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  75  98  77  99 /  20  10  -    0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  73  95  73  95 /  10   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             93  72  95  72  95 /  20  -   -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  72  94  72  94 /  10  -   -    0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  74  94  74  94 /  20  -   10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  75  94  74  95 /  20  -   -    0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           95  76  96  75  97 /  20  -   -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire
Synoptic/Grids...17
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291726
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1226 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with some scattered
low clouds. Light northeast winds will continue through this
afternoon and then switch to the east/southeast around tomorrow
morning. There is a very small chance for an afternoon shower, but
probabilities are too low to mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

UPDATE...
Remnants of overnight outflow boundaries show on visible satellite
images this morning. The most noticeable ones are across the Hill
Country and southwest of South Central Texas. These features are
good candidates for convective initiation this afternoon. HiRes
models suggest isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly along and
east of I-35 and south of Highway 90. Stronger storms could
produce localized heavy rain and wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph.
Rainfall amounts generally less than one tenth inch with very
isolated spots with up to one inch. Dry weather is expected for
much of the work week into the weekend.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions will prevail today through Thursday morning.
Localized BR with IFR/MVFR VSBYs expected early this morning and
possibly early Thursday morning where recent rains have fallen and
enhanced soil moisture. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA are possible S of KECU to
KHYI to KGYB line late morning into this afternoon. SHRA/TSRA may
bring brief IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. BR/SHRA/TSRA are currently not
expected at the TAF sites due to very low PROBS, however, will
monitor trends for possible later mention. NE to E winds 5 to 9
KTS mid morning through early evening, otherwise VRBL 5 KTS or
less are expected. SHRA/TSRA may produce winds gusts up to 35 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
South Central Texas is sandwiched between a mid-to-upper level
ridge centered over the Four Corners region and a progressive
trough moving through the Ohio and Lower Mississippi River
Valleys. Light northerly surface winds are in place across the
region as the outflow boundary that caused convection yesterday
is now located between Cotulla and Laredo extending east towards
Corpus Christi into the Gulf of Mexico. Storms forming off of this
boundary should continue its southward progression to prevent it
from being a focus for convective development across the region
tomorrow. However, moisture from another dissipating MCS near
Abilene moving southward along the eastern periphery of the ridge
may supply enough moisture to help generate convection during the
late morning and afternoon hours mainly along and south of a line
from Rocksprings to San Marcos to Lexington. Rain chances will
diminish through the afternoon from north to south as relatively
dry air and a developing subsidence inversion at midlevels reduces
CAPE. Any storms that develop may produce brief downbursts to 40
miles per hour given shallow inverted-V signatures, but coverage
should be very isolated.

Winds should be light and northerly during the afternoon to keep
today`s high temperatures 3-5 degrees cooler than on Tuesday
closer to seasonal normals. The mid-to-upper level ridge begins to
shift east into west Texas by Thursday to further increase
midlevel stability and limit isolated convection to Coastal
Plains. This will also begin a gradual warmup through the weekend
as temperatures increase back above seasonal normals.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The upper level ridge will continue moving east into Central Texas
on Friday and Saturday to further increase temperatures into the
mid 90s to lower 100s and eliminate all rain chances across the
region except for very isolated showers in the Coastal Plains. A
weak trough moving through the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma will
briefly flatten out the ridge on Sunday to help keep temperatures
from increasing further before a more elongated subtropical ridge
builds over the southern half of the country for the middle of
next week when temperatures may begin approaching the 100 degree
mark along the I-35 corridor. Heat indices will likely increase
above 105 degrees for areas along and east of I-35 by Saturday
through at least the middle of next week and likely longer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  74  96  74  96 /  10  -   -    0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  94  72  95  72  95 /  10   0   0   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  73  95  72  96 /  10  -   -    0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            93  72  94  73  94 /  10   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  75  98  77  99 /  20  10  -    0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  73  95  73  95 /  10   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             93  72  95  72  95 /  20  -   -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  72  94  72  94 /  10  -   -    0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  74  94  74  94 /  20  -   10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  75  94  74  95 /  20  -   -    0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           95  76  96  75  97 /  20  -   -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire
Synoptic/Grids...17
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams




000
FXUS64 KLUB 291723
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1223 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Already seeing new convective development west of KLBB as of
1720z along outflow boundary that moved across region past 2-3
hours. TSRA Coverage will be isolated most areas this afternoon
with VFR conditions. Based on current trends and hi res model
output...kept TS vicinity in TAFs at KLBB...KPVW...and KCDS in
roughly 21-02Z time frame. Activity decreasing toward sunset. Few
debris mid/hi clouds and VFR wx tonight with fairly light S/SE winds.
James

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions in place at all three TAF sites. A complex of
thunderstorms was moving across the Texas Panhandle this morning
and will complicate the forecast for today. There is a good chance
that isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop near or over
all three TAF sites later this afternoon but confidence is low in
the timing of when storms will develop. Once storms form, expect
to see them move slowly at or near the TAF sites and then
dissipate shortly after sunset. This will give way to VFR
conditions overnight tonight into Thursday. Jordan

UPDATE...
Have issued a quick update to the morning and afternoon weather
grids due to the incoming MCS across the Texas Panhandle. Models
still have a poor handle on how far southeast the MCS will make it
while also not showing storms developing ahead of the line in the
southern Texas Panhandle. Went ahead and increased PoPs across the
Rolling Plains for this morning and extended isolated PoPs into
portions of the South Plains. Second change was to increase aerial
coverage of isolated storms a bit further south and west thinking
of the outflow boundary location from the current storms and a bit
more widespread coverage this afternoon and evening than what was
in the forecast earlier.

Jordan

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Thunderstorms that developed and were pushing south and west late
last night have dissipated by early this morning leaving behind a
remnant outflow boundary that continues to slowly work westward.
Further north, a developing MCS continues to push southward and a
few of the 00Z models tried to push the complex into the northern
part of the forecast area by sunrise.  Based on the current
southward motion, the earliest the MCS would make it into the
northern zones would be around 10 AM CDT so confidence in the model
solutions is pretty low.  Will keep precipitation out of the
forecast for this morning thinking that the MCS will start to decay
before making it into the forecast area.  However, there could be
either a remnant outflow boundary from the MCS or perhaps an MCV
that would propagate over the area and interact with the first
outflow boundary to initiate some storms.  Unfortunately the models
are all over the place with coverage of storms this afternoon with
the TTU-WRF, RAP, HRRR, and HiRes-ARW all hinting at isolated
afternoon thunderstorms storms like we have seen the last several
days. The NAM12, NSSL WRF, and GFS keep the forecast area dry.
Forecast soundings do show MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg across the
majority of the forecast area, but there will be a bit more of a cap
to overcome as well.  Will keep a mention of isolated thunderstorms
across the northeastern two-thirds of the area this afternoon into
the early evening but feel that any storms would dissipate shortly
after sunset and only carried thunder in the weather grids through
03Z as a result.

Temperatures today should be fairly close to what we saw yesterday
as models show little change in the atmospheric profile across the
area, although any remnant cloud cover from the MCS across Kansas
may keep temperatures a degree or two cooler over the Rolling
Plains.  Likewise, low temperatures Thursday morning will be pretty
much the same as this morning unless convection lingers into the
early morning hours.

Jordan

LONG TERM...
Only minor adjustments made to the extended forecast with the summer
heat being the overwhelming theme mixed in with the occasional low
thunderstorm chances. This heat will supplied by an upper ridge that
will migrate from the Four Corners early this morning to the center
of Texas by late week. As the center of the ridge shifts to our
southeast we will see a plume of monsoon moisture be drawn around
the west and northwest periphery of the ridge. At the same time a
quasi-stationary surface boundary is expected to settle across the
northern Texas Panhandle into northern Oklahoma and/or southern
Kansas from late Thursday through Friday and into Saturday. The
surface front coupled with the improved mid-upper level moisture
and occasional upper level disturbance will support rounds of
convection translating eastward from the southern Rockies in the
plains. However, unless the frontal boundary can make further
southward progress than currently depicted in the NWP (which may
be possible given the support of MCS outflows, though the nearby
upper ridge will have something to say about that) it still
appears the best storm chances will reside to our north through
late week. In fact the latest trends continue to delay the
approach of the monsoon moisture and rain chances for our
northern/northwest zones. Given this trend we have continued to
lower/remove PoPs Thursday and Friday though we have maintained a
minimal thunder mention across our far northern/northwestern
zones.

The storm chances (albeit only in the 15-30 percent range) should
peak late Saturday into early Sunday as the deeper moisture bends
more squarely overhead and a weak shortwave trough grazes the South
Plains to the north. Beyond that, it does appear there may be enough
residual moisture and heat to provide at least isolated storm
chances lingering into early next week even as the upper ridge may
attempt to bridge its way back into the Desert Southwest.
Although confidence in the synoptic scale details is not high
toward the end of the forecast enough of the factors/signals are
there to maintain a minimal thunder mention.

Temperatures through the extended are expected to reside on the warm
side of guidance. Highs in the mid-upper 90s will be fairly common
with some triple digits also possible (favoring the lower
elevations).

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KAMA 291641
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1141 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.Aviation...
18Z TAF Cycle

An upper high over the four corners region will build slowly east
through 18Z Thursday. VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF
sites through the TAF forecast period. A frontal boundary across
southwest Kansas along with a northwesterly upper flow across the
Panhandles will contribute to possible convection later today and
this evening at the Amarillo TAF site. Will include a Tempo Group
from around 23Z today to around 03Z Thursday or so. Another
convective complex is expected to push south and east across the
northern Panhandles later tonight and Thursday morning, similar to
late last night and this morning, and will include a Tempo Group for
convection at both the Dalhart and Guymon TAF sites between about 10Z
to 14Z Thursday for this possibility. Southwest to south winds should
back around to the south and southeast after 00Z Thursday 5 to 15
knots.

Schneider

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 1116 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

Update...The MCS that was moving across the combined Panhandles this
morning has dissipated, though redevelopment of isolated convection
may occur on the western periphery of the remnant cold pool aided by
an upper level shortwave trough. Elevated instability of 1000-1500
J/kg noted in the 12Z sounding this morning (noted between H7 & H2)
should become available this afternoon as daytime heating helps
destabilize the environment. There is some question as to how much
recovery will occur in eastern zones due to cold pool from last
night`s activity, but another shortwave trough approaching from the
northwest will aid in the development of a lee side low over
southeastern Colorado to southwestern Kansas. Southwesterly winds
should develop in response to this low, bringing drier air into the
southwestern combined Panhandles and increased isentropic lift along
a developing boundary in the northern portion of our CWA. Have
updated grids to account for the cold pool present over our eastern
CWA, and to account for potential convective environment this
afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on
track.

Bieda

Aviation...Previous Discussion...12z TAFs...Expect that morning
convection will continue moving south this morning, with likelihood
for a direct impact at the terminals being greatest during the
morning. Variable gusts up to 40 kt will be possible near the
stronger storms. Outflow boundary seen as a fine line on KAMA 88D
currently moving south at 30 kt toward KAMA, with northeast surface
winds expected for a couple of hours following it. Southwest surface
winds will then prevail this afternoon and overnight. Isolated
thunderstorms possible this afternoon and this evening.

Cockrell

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/98




000
FXUS64 KMAF 291636
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1136 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and tonight.
Thunderstorms will be possible, but mainly over the higher terrain
to the west and south of area terminals.  An outflow boundary may
move into northern reaches of the forecast area this afternoon, but
probability is too low to include TSRA at KHOB or KMAF.  67

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:45 AM CDT Wednesday...Other than some mid
level convective debris clouds it is a quiet morning across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico. An MCS in SE CO/SW KS moving
into the OK/Northern TX Panhandle should dissipate before
reaching the CWA.

Typical summertime pattern is in store for the CWA. Ridging
remains centered over the Four Corners region with a trof over
the Eastern US. Deep layer ENE flow along with intense heating
will bring mainly a slt chc of convection to the Davis Mtns thru
Thursday. Temps will be near seasonal norms.

The center of the ridge will slide east and become centered over
TX on Friday as a trof moves into the West Coast. The ridge gets
flattened over the upcoming holiday weekend as weak shortwaves
move across the US. This will bring a westerly flow to the
Southern Plains and allow monsoonal moisture to spread east. This
could bring a slt chc/chc of thunderstorms across the higher
terrain with a slt chc over the Plains. Temps look to be a little
above normal...near 100 in the Plains to near 105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys. Temps will be mainly in the 90s over the
mtns. Ridging will amplify a bit next Tue/Wed resulting in
convection mainly over the higher terrain along with slightly
above normal temps.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       94  68  96  69 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  92  70  95  71 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 85  66  88  67 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          91  66  94  67 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          85  59  87  61 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  70  96  71 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         93  71  95  72 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           95  70  97  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/33




000
FXUS64 KAMA 291616
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1116 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.Update...The MCS that was moving across the combined Panhandles this
morning has dissipated, though redevelopment of isolated convection
may occur on the western periphery of the remnant cold pool aided by
an upper level shortwave trough. Elevated instability of 1000-1500
J/kg noted in the 12Z sounding this morning (noted between H7 & H2)
should become available this afternoon as daytime heating helps
destabilize the environment. There is some question as to how much
recovery will occur in eastern zones due to cold pool from last
night`s activity, but another shortwave trough approaching from the
northwest will aid in the development of a lee side low over
southeastern Colorado to southwestern Kansas. Southwesterly winds
should develop in response to this low, bringing drier air into the
southwestern combined Panhandles and increased isentropic lift along
a developing boundary in the northern portion of our CWA. Have
updated grids to account for the cold pool present over our eastern
CWA, and to account for potential convective environment this
afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on
track.

Bieda

&&

.Aviation...Previous Discussion...12z TAFs...Expect that morning
convection will continue moving south this morning, with likelihood
for a direct impact at the terminals being greatest during the
morning. Variable gusts up to 40 kt will be possible near the
stronger storms. Outflow boundary seen as a fine line on KAMA 88D
currently moving south at 30 kt toward KAMA, with northeast surface
winds expected for a couple of hours following it. Southwest surface
winds will then prevail this afternoon and overnight. Isolated
thunderstorms possible this afternoon and this evening.

Cockrell

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                88  67  94  67  92 /  50  10  30  30  20
Beaver OK                  91  69  93  66  86 /  60  30  50  60  40
Boise City OK              91  64  87  62  83 /  40  20  50  60  50
Borger TX                  93  70  95  68  92 /  70  20  40  40  20
Boys Ranch TX              92  68  95  67  93 /  30  10  30  30  20
Canyon TX                  90  66  96  67  94 /  40  10  20  20  20
Clarendon TX               87  67  94  69  93 /  50  20  20  20  20
Dalhart TX                 93  66  92  64  90 /  40  20  50  40  30
Guymon OK                  94  68  91  66  87 /  70  20  50  60  40
Hereford TX                92  66  97  66  94 /  20  10  20  20  20
Lipscomb TX                90  68  96  67  89 /  80  20  50  60  40
Pampa TX                   86  68  94  67  91 /  70  20  40  40  20
Shamrock TX                90  68  96  69  94 /  70  20  30  30  20
Wellington TX              92  69  96  71  97 /  50  20  20  20  20

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 354 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

Discussion...
Diurnal/terrain driven MCS activity will continue to periodically
move southeast within northwesterly flow aloft through Thursday. Some
notable synoptic scale changes occur at the end of the week through
the weekend that have implications for our weather and this will be
discussed further down.

The immediate concern is the mesoscale convective system moving into
the Oklahoma Panhandle from southwest Kansas. Driven by a well
developed cold pool in a sufficiently unstable environment (RAP
MUCAPE around 1,500 J/kg) storms should sustain through much of the
morning, probably moving along a weak low-level theta-e gradient
across the eastern Panhandles. Nocturnally stabilized low levels
should limit the wind threat although a few severe gusts have been
noted over southwest Kansas within the last couple of hours.

Today, the synoptic pattern is generally the same as yesterday with
the mid-upper high positioned slightly further east and weakening
some. These changes yield neutral tendencies in 500 mb heights
through the day over our area with some decrease by evening.
Convective development in our region will depend on how the ongoing
convective system over southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado
evolves with significant overturning possibly precluding afternoon
redevelopment. Residual outflow boundaries will largely determine
specifically where isolated convection may be most likely to develop
this afternoon, if any develop at all. Afternoon development may be
most likely along the western flank of residual MCS possibly further
west than our current forecast indicates. We will make adjustments as
needed but overall the most widespread rain today is anticipated this
morning in the Oklahoma and northeast Texas panhandles.

A strengthening lee low is indicated in all model guidance later
tonight just to our north in response to a weak shortwave trough in
phase with a stronger northern stream wave. This surface low
will elongate and become increasingly baroclinic by Thursday
morning. Increase surface convergence along this quasi-stationary
front, low level theta-e ridging, and subtle forcing for ascent from
passing minor shortwave is expected to result in a fairly high
probabilities for precipitation, particularly across the northern
portion of our area Thursday afternoon and evening. Preceding that
activity, initiation of convection this afternoon over the central
Rockies will probably lead to another MCS overnight that will move
across eastern Colorado and western/central Kansas possibly reaching
northern portions of our area late in the night or Thursday morning.
We have this covered with low chance probabilities for now, but may
need to make adjustments upward. This may augment synoptic boundary
and complicate the convective potential later in the afternoon, so
some changes to timing and probabilities may be needed between now
and then.

We have attempted to highlight when the best chance for precipitation
will be late this week into the weekend during what is expected to be
the more active period. Thursday night through Saturday we will be
on the northern edge of the ridge with mid level flow being more
westerly. The aforementioned front will probably be over the area
through that period although it becomes more diffuse with time.
Periodic convective systems that originate in the mountainous terrain
to the west may impact the area each evening/overnight, although
timing is complicated on Saturday by a shortwave trough that develops
and moves toward the area. This may cause greatest convective
coverage to be earlier in the day mostly moving east by evening. For
now, have stayed consistent with the forecast and kept probabilities
highest during the evening (terrain/diurnally driven convective
system moving east over the area again) given uncertainty in timing
of this shortwave in the model guidance.

Medium range guidance shows that the strongest westerlies will be
north of the area Sunday through Monday with generally weak flow
aloft over our area. Small perturbations in the flow necessitate at
least low probabilities though.

BRB

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/98




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291448 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
948 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Remnants of overnight outflow boundaries show on visible satellite
images this morning. The most noticeable ones are across the Hill
Country and southwest of South Central Texas. These features are
good candidates for convective initiation this afternoon. HiRes
models suggest isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly along and
east of I-35 and south of Highway 90. Stronger storms could
produce localized heavy rain and wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph.
Rainfall amounts generally less than one tenth inch with very
isolated spots with up to one inch. Dry weather is expected for
much of the work week into the weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions will prevail today through Thursday morning.
Localized BR with IFR/MVFR VSBYs expected early this morning and
possibly early Thursday morning where recent rains have fallen and
enhanced soil moisture. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA are possible S of KECU to
KHYI to KGYB line late morning into this afternoon. SHRA/TSRA may
bring brief IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. BR/SHRA/TSRA are currently not
expected at the TAF sites due to very low PROBS, however, will
monitor trends for possible later mention. NE to E winds 5 to 9
KTS mid morning through early evening, otherwise VRBL 5 KTS or
less are expected. SHRA/TSRA may produce winds gusts up to 35 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
South Central Texas is sandwiched between a mid-to-upper level
ridge centered over the Four Corners region and a progressive
trough moving through the Ohio and Lower Mississippi River
Valleys. Light northerly surface winds are in place across the
region as the outflow boundary that caused convection yesterday
is now located between Cotulla and Laredo extending east towards
Corpus Christi into the Gulf of Mexico. Storms forming off of this
boundary should continue its southward progression to prevent it
from being a focus for convective development across the region
tomorrow. However, moisture from another dissipating MCS near
Abilene moving southward along the eastern periphery of the ridge
may supply enough moisture to help generate convection during the
late morning and afternoon hours mainly along and south of a line
from Rocksprings to San Marcos to Lexington. Rain chances will
diminish through the afternoon from north to south as relatively
dry air and a developing subsidence inversion at midlevels reduces
CAPE. Any storms that develop may produce brief downbursts to 40
miles per hour given shallow inverted-V signatures, but coverage
should be very isolated.

Winds should be light and northerly during the afternoon to keep
today`s high temperatures 3-5 degrees cooler than on Tuesday
closer to seasonal normals. The mid-to-upper level ridge begins to
shift east into west Texas by Thursday to further increase
midlevel stability and limit isolated convection to Coastal
Plains. This will also begin a gradual warmup through the weekend
as temperatures increase back above seasonal normals.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The upper level ridge will continue moving east into Central Texas
on Friday and Saturday to further increase temperatures into the
mid 90s to lower 100s and eliminate all rain chances across the
region except for very isolated showers in the Coastal Plains. A
weak trough moving through the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma will
briefly flatten out the ridge on Sunday to help keep temperatures
from increasing further before a more elongated subtropical ridge
builds over the southern half of the country for the middle of
next week when temperatures may begin approaching the 100 degree
mark along the I-35 corridor. Heat indices will likely increase
above 105 degrees for areas along and east of I-35 by Saturday
through at least the middle of next week and likely longer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  75  96  75  97 /  10  -   -   -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  94  72  96  72  97 /  10  -   -   -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  72  96  73  97 /  10  10  10  -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            93  72  95  73  96 /  10  -   -   -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  76  99  77 101 /  20  10  10  -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  73  95  74  96 /  10  -   -   -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             93  73  95  72  97 /  20  10  10  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  72  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  74  95  75  95 /  20  10  10  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  75  95  74  96 /  20  10  10  -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           95  76  97  76  98 /  20  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire
Synoptic/Grids...17
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291418
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
918 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
The bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity should remain
offshore today, however another round of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will likely move through SE Texas from
the northeast during the afternoon. Updated the high temperature
forecast to reflect slightly cooler guidance and 12Z soundings
from Lake Charles and Corpus Christi. Heat index values will
remain in the low to mid 100s this afternoon.  11

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
Expecting to see less SHRA/TSRA coverage today (best chances closer
to the coast and offshore) as some drier air filters into the area.
Kept VCSH in from IAH southward, and will adjust to mention TS if
needed. Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will dissipate
early this morning. We might have a few isolated spots with MVFR/IFR
concerns again early tomorrow morning.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...

Scattered shra/tsra are located well offshore early this morning where
an outflow boundary and deep moisture are present. Will likely see
a few shra/tsra develop closer to the coast later this morning.
With heating today expect scattered activity to develop across the
SE half of the area. However...precip coverage will be
considerably less as compared to yesterday as the 2+ inch
precipitable water values are south of the area and in the NW
Gulf. Will continue to see the atmosphere dry on Thursday. On
Friday will see moisture levels creep up across the SE 1/3rd of
the area which likely lead to sct mainly afternoon convection.

This weekend the mid/upper level ridge will be positioned overhead
and we should see little chc of rain and slightly warmer
temperatures. Heat indices will also be on the rise over the
holiday weekend. Early next week our weather is likely to
continue to be dominated by a broad mid/upper ridge across the
southern U.S. However, there are some weaknesses in the ridge
that could result in some day to day variability in rain chcs. 33

MARINE...
Through the end of the week, mainly light and variable winds and
low seas will persist.  There will be lingering chances for showers
and thunderstorms (and associated higher winds and seas) with a
focusing boundary in the area.  An onshore slow is expected to return
to the area on Thursday and Thursday night but will not begin to
strengthen until Friday night or Saturday when low pressure over West
Texas begins to deepen.  Moderate south winds and slightly elevated
seas will persist through the holiday weekend, and caution flags might
be needed.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      94  75  94  75  95 /  20  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              95  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            90  79  91  80  91 /  30  20  20  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...11




000
FXUS64 KAMA 291153
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
653 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.Aviation...
Expect that morning convection will continue moving south this
morning, with likelihood for a direct impact at the terminals being
greatest during the morning.  Variable gusts up to 40 kt will be
possible near the stronger storms.  Outflow boundary seen as a fine
line on KAMA 88D currently moving south at 30 kt toward KAMA, with
northeast surface winds expected for a couple of hours following it.
Southwest surface winds will then prevail this afternoon and
overnight.  Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and this
evening.

Cockrell

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 354 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

Discussion...
Diurnal/terrain driven MCS activity will continue to periodically
move southeast within northwesterly flow aloft through Thursday. Some
notable synoptic scale changes occur at the end of the week through
the weekend that have implications for our weather and this will be
discussed further down.

The immediate concern is the mesoscale convective system moving into
the Oklahoma Panhandle from southwest Kansas. Driven by a well
developed cold pool in a sufficiently unstable environment (RAP
MUCAPE around 1,500 J/kg) storms should sustain through much of the
morning, probably moving along a weak low-level theta-e gradient
across the eastern Panhandles. Nocturnally stabilized low levels
should limit the wind threat although a few severe gusts have been
noted over southwest Kansas within the last couple of hours.

Today, the synoptic pattern is generally the same as yesterday with
the mid-upper high positioned slightly further east and weakening
some. These changes yield neutral tendencies in 500 mb heights
through the day over our area with some decrease by evening.
Convective development in our region will depend on how the ongoing
convective system over southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado
evolves with significant overturning possibly precluding afternoon
redevelopment. Residual outflow boundaries will largely determine
specifically where isolated convection may be most likely to develop
this afternoon, if any develop at all. Afternoon development may be
most likely along the western flank of residual MCS possibly further
west than our current forecast indicates. We will make adjustments as
needed but overall the most widespread rain today is anticipated this
morning in the Oklahoma and northeast Texas panhandles.

A strengthening lee low is indicated in all model guidance later
tonight just to our north in response to a weak shortwave trough in
phase with a stronger northern stream wave. This surface low
will elongate and become increasingly baroclinic by Thursday
morning. Increase surface convergence along this quasi-stationary
front, low level theta-e ridging, and subtle forcing for ascent from
passing minor shortwave is expected to result in a fairly high
probabilities for precipitation, particularly across the northern
portion of our area Thursday afternoon and evening. Preceding that
activity, initiation of convection this afternoon over the central
Rockies will probably lead to another MCS overnight that will move
across eastern Colorado and western/central Kansas possibly reaching
northern portions of our area late in the night or Thursday morning.
We have this covered with low chance probabilities for now, but may
need to make adjustments upward. This may augment synoptic boundary
and complicate the convective potential later in the afternoon, so
some changes to timing and probabilities may be needed between now
and then.

We have attempted to highlight when the best chance for precipitation
will be late this week into the weekend during what is expected to be
the more active period. Thursday night through Saturday we will be
on the northern edge of the ridge with mid level flow being more
westerly. The aforementioned front will probably be over the area
through that period although it becomes more diffuse with time.
Periodic convective systems that originate in the mountainous terrain
to the west may impact the area each evening/overnight, although
timing is complicated on Saturday by a shortwave trough that develops
and moves toward the area. This may cause greatest convective
coverage to be earlier in the day mostly moving east by evening. For
now, have stayed consistent with the forecast and kept probabilities
highest during the evening (terrain/diurnally driven convective
system moving east over the area again) given uncertainty in timing
of this shortwave in the model guidance.

Medium range guidance shows that the strongest westerlies will be
north of the area Sunday through Monday with generally weak flow
aloft over our area. Small perturbations in the flow necessitate at
least low probabilities though.

BRB

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                95  68  94  67  92 /  50  10  30  30  20
Beaver OK                  97  70  93  66  86 /  60  30  50  60  40
Boise City OK              95  65  87  62  83 /  40  20  50  60  50
Borger TX                  97  71  95  68  92 /  70  10  40  40  20
Boys Ranch TX              98  69  95  67  93 /  30  10  30  30  20
Canyon TX                  95  67  96  67  94 /  40  10  20  20  20
Clarendon TX               94  68  94  69  93 /  50  20  20  20  20
Dalhart TX                 96  67  92  64  90 /  40  20  50  40  30
Guymon OK                  98  69  91  66  87 /  70  20  50  60  40
Hereford TX                94  67  97  66  94 /  20  10  20  20  20
Lipscomb TX                95  69  96  67  89 /  80  20  50  60  40
Pampa TX                   95  69  94  67  91 /  70  20  40  40  20
Shamrock TX                95  69  96  69  94 /  70  20  30  30  20
Wellington TX              97  70  96  71  97 /  50  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

O3/17




000
FXUS64 KCRP 291151
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
651 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 12 aviation cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

Today...VFR. Weak surface boundary continues to sag farther south
today touching off more isolated to possibly scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity later this afternoon with MVFR/IFR
conditions possible. Confidence on terminal impacts has decreased
at this time, given the very isolated activity expected, so we
remove tempos and replace with VCTS. Low to medium confidence
overall.

Tonight...VFR. Could see some pockets of MVFR/IFR fog around
KALI/KVCT but confidence not high at this time so refrain from
adding to tafs. Light south-southeasterly winds expected under a
veil of cirrus. Medium confidence.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

Current activity across the Gulf waters is being driven by a weak
surface trough, old boundary, that is slowly sagging towards the
south this morning over the waters. The boundary looks to be hung up
over the Coastal Bend with some isolated showers possible though a
majority of the activity will remain offshore this morning. PWATs
continue to surge into the 2 to 2.25 inch mark, well above normal,
so still expecting scattered convection to develop during the
afternoon hours across the Coastal Bend and possibly west into the
Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains with outflow interactions.
Temperatures today will once again be on the hot side with low
triple digits west to mid-90s east.

With the loss in daytime heating expecting the scattered shower
activity to dwindle and head back offshore. Left over boundary may
remain offshore tonight so we continue with the chance PoPs and
leave the land areas dry. Still have ample moisture around on
Thursday but looking like less forcing to go around so while not
completely void of convection we should be more isolated in nature
outside of the seabreeze interaction. Temperatures much the same as
on Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...

..Dangerous Heat Conditions Possible Over 4th of July Weekend...

A prolonged period of hot and dry conditions is prog to become
established late this week and continue through the holiday weekend.
Center of H5 subtropical ridge is prog to drift across S TX late
this week with strong flat ridging to exist over the weekend into
early next week. This will aid in an increase in mid level temps and
associated subsidence. H85 high pressure center is prog to shift
east through the forecast period and become centered over FL.
Position of the H85 high will allow for drier air in the H9 to H8
layer to advect across the CWA...limiting any precip of significance.
H85 temps also increase in response to the drier layer...with values
approaching 30C across the Brush Country early next week. Despite
drier air around H85...guidance progs an influx of higher near
surface moisture values over the weekend/early next week as some
moisture is pulled northward from the Bay of Campeche. Combination of
all these factors should lead to several days in which afternoon heat
indices across many locations may reach/exceed Heat Advisory levels
/heat indices of 110 degrees or greater/. Addition of influx of
dewpoints from afternoon seabreeze passage each afternoon will likely
further aid in high heat indices /before temps cool slightly from
post seabreeze airmass/. Pressure gradient force also strengthens
over the weekend as low pressure develops across the northern Plains.
Result will be almost a heat furnace effect with breezy/windy
conditions occurring with hot temperatures. Mostly sunny skies over
the holiday weekend due to limited moisture /though some daily Cu
still expected/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  75  93  75  95  /  30  10  30  10  10
Victoria          94  74  93  74  95  /  20  10  20  10  10
Laredo           101  77 100  78 102  /  20  20  10  10   0
Alice             96  73  97  73  98  /  30  10  20  10  10
Rockport          92  78  90  78  93  /  30  20  30  10  10
Cotulla           99  75  99  75 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
Kingsville        95  74  95  74  96  /  30  10  20  10  10
Navy Corpus       91  79  90  79  92  /  30  20  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291141
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Expecting to see less SHRA/TSRA coverage today (best chances closer
to the coast and offshore) as some drier air filters into the area.
Kept VCSH in from IAH southward, and will adjust to mention TS if
needed. Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will dissipate
early this morning. We might have a few isolated spots with MVFR/IFR
concerns again early tomorrow morning.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...

Scattered shra/tsra are located well offshore early this morning where
an outflow boundary and deep moisture are present. Will likely see
a few shra/tsra develop closer to the coast later this morning.
With heating today expect scattered activity to develop across the
SE half of the area. However...precip coverage will be
considerably less as compared to yesterday as the 2+ inch
precipitable water values are south of the area and in the NW
Gulf. Will continue to see the atmosphere dry on Thursday. On
Friday will see moisture levels creep up across the SE 1/3rd of
the area which likely lead to sct mainly afternoon convection.

This weekend the mid/upper level ridge will be positioned overhead
and we should see little chc of rain and slightly warmer
temperatures. Heat indices will also be on the rise over the
holiday weekend. Early next week our weather is likely to
continue to be dominated by a broad mid/upper ridge across the
southern U.S. However, there are some weaknesses in the ridge
that could result in some day to day variability in rain chcs. 33

MARINE...
Through the end of the week, mainly light and variable winds and
low seas will persist.  There will be lingering chances for showers
and thunderstorms (and associated higher winds and seas) with a
focusing boundary in the area.  An onshore slow is expected to return
to the area on Thursday and Thursday night but will not begin to
strengthen until Friday night or Saturday when low pressure over West
Texas begins to deepen.  Moderate south winds and slightly elevated
seas will persist through the holiday weekend, and caution flags might
be needed.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      94  75  94  75  95 /  20  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              95  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            90  79  91  80  91 /  30  20  20  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...33
Aviation/Marine...42




000
FXUS64 KSJT 291140
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
640 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours with light northeast winds to east winds
less than 8 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper ridge over the 4-corners region will move slowly southeast
towards West Central Texas today. This should suppress most shower
and thunderstorm development, but 1 or 2 storms cannot be ruled
out. Have a slight chance of thunderstorms along and south of I-10
from Iraan to Ozona to Sonora where a dissipated cold front may
provide a focus for development. Otherwise temperatures today are
expected to rise to highs in the lower to mid 90s with lows
tonight in the lower 70s.

04

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

By Thursday, the center of an upper level high pressure area will
be located near the Concho Valley. This area of upper ridging will
remain in the Texas area through next week. The ridge will be
slightly weakened briefly from Saturday night into Monday as
shortwave energy from northwestern Mexico is pulled northeast
into the westerly flow on the northern side of the high pressure
area. As this shortwave moves through the Texas panhandle into
northern Oklahoma, we could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm
Sunday into Monday, mainly north and west of a Throckmorton, to
Anson, to Sterling City line. Otherwise, we will see warmer
temperatures, and dry weather. Have not gone as hot as the MEX
guidance numbers later in the forecast, as wet soils should limit
heating for the areas that saw rainfall these past few days.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  71  94  73 /  10   0   5   0
San Angelo  93  70  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
Junction  94  70  94  71 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/04




000
FXUS64 KFWD 291127 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
627 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period. Light and
variable winds this morning will become more easterly by midday.
Scattered thunderstorms ongoing well to the northwest of the
region should weaken and diminish as they continue south. Upper
ridging will strengthen across the area today resulting in little
coverage of showers/storms this afternoon. Light southeast winds
and VFR conditions prevail on Thursday.

Dunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/
The remnants of the MCS which pushed south through Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas last night has sent some high clouds across the
area early this morning, otherwise it has all but dissipated. A
second MCS currently moving south through southwest Kansas will
approach from the northwest during the morning hours, but it is
expected to diminish before reaching our northwestern counties.
These systems are moving within the anticyclonic flow around an
upper ridge currently centered over the Desert Southwest. The
ridge is progged to develop eastward across the Texas and the
Southern Plains over the next few days, bringing a return to the
hot dry weather across North and Central Texas for the rest of the
week. There is an outside chance that another convective complex
will graze the northern counties tonight, but probabilities for
any precip reaching the area remain low.

Northeast flow at the surface will veer to more of an easterly
direction today before returning to the southeast Thursday. A
slow return of low level moisture will then ensue, which when
combined with the upper 90s high temperatures, will lead to heat
indices in the 100 to 105 range Friday through the weekend.

By Sunday, the ridge is forecast to flatten out with zonal flow
developing across the CONUS. A shortwave trough will traverse the
Southern Plains Sunday Night into Independence Day, bringing a
chance of convection across parts of the area just in time for
Fourth of July festivities. At this time, it looks like these rain
chances will be confined to counties immediately north of the
Dallas-Fort Worth area where the best lift from the shortwave will
occur. Seasonably hot and rain-free conditions are expected
elsewhere. However, we will need to keep track of future model
solutions regarding the shortwave, as a farther south track would
warrant expanding POPs farther south and vice versa.

Dry weather will return by the middle of next week as the ridge
once again strengthens overhead.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  78  98  77  98 /   0   5   5   5   5
Waco                95  75  97  74  97 /  10   5   5   5   5
Paris               95  73  95  73  93 /   0   5   5   5  10
Denton              95  74  96  74  95 /   0   5   5   5  10
McKinney            95  73  95  74  94 /   0   5   5   5  10
Dallas              97  78  98  78  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
Terrell             95  75  96  74  95 /   5   5   5   5   5
Corsicana           95  75  97  76  97 /   5   5   5   5   5
Temple              94  73  96  73  96 /  10   5   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       94  71  96  72  95 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLUB 291125 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
625 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions in place at all three TAF sites. A complex of
thunderstorms was moving across the Texas Panhandle this morning
and will complicate the forecast for today. There is a good chance
that isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop near or over
all three TAF sites later this afternoon but confidence is low in
the timing of when storms will develop. Once storms form, expect
to see them move slowly at or near the TAF sites and then
dissipate shortly after sunset. This will give way to VFR
conditions overnight tonight into Thursday. Jordan

&&

.UPDATE...
Have issued a quick update to the morning and afternoon weather
grids due to the incoming MCS across the Texas Panhandle. Models
still have a poor handle on how far southeast the MCS will make it
while also not showing storms developing ahead of the line in the
southern Texas Panhandle. Went ahead and increased PoPs across the
Rolling Plains for this morning and extended isolated PoPs into
portions of the South Plains. Second change was to increase aerial
coverage of isolated storms a bit further south and west thinking
of the outflow boundary location from the current storms and a bit
more widespread coverage this afternoon and evening than what was
in the forecast earlier.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Thunderstorms that developed and were pushing south and west late
last night have dissipated by early this morning leaving behind a
remnant outflow boundary that continues to slowly work westward.
Further north, a developing MCS continues to push southward and a
few of the 00Z models tried to push the complex into the northern
part of the forecast area by sunrise.  Based on the current
southward motion, the earliest the MCS would make it into the
northern zones would be around 10 AM CDT so confidence in the model
solutions is pretty low.  Will keep precipitation out of the
forecast for this morning thinking that the MCS will start to decay
before making it into the forecast area.  However, there could be
either a remnant outflow boundary from the MCS or perhaps an MCV
that would propagate over the area and interact with the first
outflow boundary to initiate some storms.  Unfortunately the models
are all over the place with coverage of storms this afternoon with
the TTU-WRF, RAP, HRRR, and HiRes-ARW all hinting at isolated
afternoon thunderstorms storms like we have seen the last several
days. The NAM12, NSSL WRF, and GFS keep the forecast area dry.
Forecast soundings do show MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg across the
majority of the forecast area, but there will be a bit more of a cap
to overcome as well.  Will keep a mention of isolated thunderstorms
across the northeastern two-thirds of the area this afternoon into
the early evening but feel that any storms would dissipate shortly
after sunset and only carried thunder in the weather grids through
03Z as a result.

Temperatures today should be fairly close to what we saw yesterday
as models show little change in the atmospheric profile across the
area, although any remnant cloud cover from the MCS across Kansas
may keep temperatures a degree or two cooler over the Rolling
Plains.  Likewise, low temperatures Thursday morning will be pretty
much the same as this morning unless convection lingers into the
early morning hours.

Jordan

LONG TERM...
Only minor adjustments made to the extended forecast with the summer
heat being the overwhelming theme mixed in with the occasional low
thunderstorm chances. This heat will supplied by an upper ridge that
will migrate from the Four Corners early this morning to the center
of Texas by late week. As the center of the ridge shifts to our
southeast we will see a plume of monsoon moisture be drawn around
the west and northwest periphery of the ridge. At the same time a
quasi-stationary surface boundary is expected to settle across the
northern Texas Panhandle into northern Oklahoma and/or southern
Kansas from late Thursday through Friday and into Saturday. The
surface front coupled with the improved mid-upper level moisture
and occasional upper level disturbance will support rounds of
convection translating eastward from the southern Rockies in the
plains. However, unless the frontal boundary can make further
southward progress than currently depicted in the NWP (which may
be possible given the support of MCS outflows, though the nearby
upper ridge will have something to say about that) it still
appears the best storm chances will reside to our north through
late week. In fact the latest trends continue to delay the
approach of the monsoon moisture and rain chances for our
northern/northwest zones. Given this trend we have continued to
lower/remove PoPs Thursday and Friday though we have maintained a
minimal thunder mention across our far northern/northwestern
zones.

The storm chances (albeit only in the 15-30 percent range) should
peak late Saturday into early Sunday as the deeper moisture bends
more squarely overhead and a weak shortwave trough grazes the South
Plains to the north. Beyond that, it does appear there may be enough
residual moisture and heat to provide at least isolated storm
chances lingering into early next week even as the upper ridge may
attempt to bridge its way back into the Desert Southwest.
Although confidence in the synoptic scale details is not high
toward the end of the forecast enough of the factors/signals are
there to maintain a minimal thunder mention.

Temperatures through the extended are expected to reside on the warm
side of guidance. Highs in the mid-upper 90s will be fairly common
with some triple digits also possible (favoring the lower
elevations).

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLUB 291125 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
625 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions in place at all three TAF sites. A complex of
thunderstorms was moving across the Texas Panhandle this morning
and will complicate the forecast for today. There is a good chance
that isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop near or over
all three TAF sites later this afternoon but confidence is low in
the timing of when storms will develop. Once storms form, expect
to see them move slowly at or near the TAF sites and then
dissipate shortly after sunset. This will give way to VFR
conditions overnight tonight into Thursday. Jordan

&&

.UPDATE...
Have issued a quick update to the morning and afternoon weather
grids due to the incoming MCS across the Texas Panhandle. Models
still have a poor handle on how far southeast the MCS will make it
while also not showing storms developing ahead of the line in the
southern Texas Panhandle. Went ahead and increased PoPs across the
Rolling Plains for this morning and extended isolated PoPs into
portions of the South Plains. Second change was to increase aerial
coverage of isolated storms a bit further south and west thinking
of the outflow boundary location from the current storms and a bit
more widespread coverage this afternoon and evening than what was
in the forecast earlier.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Thunderstorms that developed and were pushing south and west late
last night have dissipated by early this morning leaving behind a
remnant outflow boundary that continues to slowly work westward.
Further north, a developing MCS continues to push southward and a
few of the 00Z models tried to push the complex into the northern
part of the forecast area by sunrise.  Based on the current
southward motion, the earliest the MCS would make it into the
northern zones would be around 10 AM CDT so confidence in the model
solutions is pretty low.  Will keep precipitation out of the
forecast for this morning thinking that the MCS will start to decay
before making it into the forecast area.  However, there could be
either a remnant outflow boundary from the MCS or perhaps an MCV
that would propagate over the area and interact with the first
outflow boundary to initiate some storms.  Unfortunately the models
are all over the place with coverage of storms this afternoon with
the TTU-WRF, RAP, HRRR, and HiRes-ARW all hinting at isolated
afternoon thunderstorms storms like we have seen the last several
days. The NAM12, NSSL WRF, and GFS keep the forecast area dry.
Forecast soundings do show MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg across the
majority of the forecast area, but there will be a bit more of a cap
to overcome as well.  Will keep a mention of isolated thunderstorms
across the northeastern two-thirds of the area this afternoon into
the early evening but feel that any storms would dissipate shortly
after sunset and only carried thunder in the weather grids through
03Z as a result.

Temperatures today should be fairly close to what we saw yesterday
as models show little change in the atmospheric profile across the
area, although any remnant cloud cover from the MCS across Kansas
may keep temperatures a degree or two cooler over the Rolling
Plains.  Likewise, low temperatures Thursday morning will be pretty
much the same as this morning unless convection lingers into the
early morning hours.

Jordan

LONG TERM...
Only minor adjustments made to the extended forecast with the summer
heat being the overwhelming theme mixed in with the occasional low
thunderstorm chances. This heat will supplied by an upper ridge that
will migrate from the Four Corners early this morning to the center
of Texas by late week. As the center of the ridge shifts to our
southeast we will see a plume of monsoon moisture be drawn around
the west and northwest periphery of the ridge. At the same time a
quasi-stationary surface boundary is expected to settle across the
northern Texas Panhandle into northern Oklahoma and/or southern
Kansas from late Thursday through Friday and into Saturday. The
surface front coupled with the improved mid-upper level moisture
and occasional upper level disturbance will support rounds of
convection translating eastward from the southern Rockies in the
plains. However, unless the frontal boundary can make further
southward progress than currently depicted in the NWP (which may
be possible given the support of MCS outflows, though the nearby
upper ridge will have something to say about that) it still
appears the best storm chances will reside to our north through
late week. In fact the latest trends continue to delay the
approach of the monsoon moisture and rain chances for our
northern/northwest zones. Given this trend we have continued to
lower/remove PoPs Thursday and Friday though we have maintained a
minimal thunder mention across our far northern/northwestern
zones.

The storm chances (albeit only in the 15-30 percent range) should
peak late Saturday into early Sunday as the deeper moisture bends
more squarely overhead and a weak shortwave trough grazes the South
Plains to the north. Beyond that, it does appear there may be enough
residual moisture and heat to provide at least isolated storm
chances lingering into early next week even as the upper ridge may
attempt to bridge its way back into the Desert Southwest.
Although confidence in the synoptic scale details is not high
toward the end of the forecast enough of the factors/signals are
there to maintain a minimal thunder mention.

Temperatures through the extended are expected to reside on the warm
side of guidance. Highs in the mid-upper 90s will be fairly common
with some triple digits also possible (favoring the lower
elevations).

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 291122
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
light and will become easterly to southeasterly this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:45 AM CDT Wednesday...Other than some mid
level convective debris clouds it is a quiet morning across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico. An MCS in SE CO/SW KS moving
into the OK/Northern TX Panhandle should dissipate before
reaching the CWA.

Typical summertime pattern is in store for the CWA. Ridging
remains centered over the Four Corners region with a trof over
the Eastern US. Deep layer ENE flow along with intense heating
will bring mainly a slt chc of convection to the Davis Mtns thru
Thursday. Temps will be near seasonal norms.

The center of the ridge will slide east and become centered over
TX on Friday as a trof moves into the West Coast. The ridge gets
flattened over the upcoming holiday weekend as weak shortwaves
move across the US. This will bring a westerly flow to the
Southern Plains and allow monsoonal moisture to spread east. This
could bring a slt chc/chc of thunderstorms across the higher
terrain with a slt chc over the Plains. Temps look to be a little
above normal...near 100 in the Plains to near 105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys. Temps will be mainly in the 90s over the
mtns. Ridging will amplify a bit next Tue/Wed resulting in
convection mainly over the higher terrain along with slightly
above normal temps.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       94  68  96  69 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  92  70  95  71 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 85  66  88  67 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          91  66  94  67 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          85  59  87  61 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  70  96  71 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         93  71  95  72 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           95  70  97  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/




000
FXUS64 KMAF 291122
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
light and will become easterly to southeasterly this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 3:45 AM CDT Wednesday...Other than some mid
level convective debris clouds it is a quiet morning across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico. An MCS in SE CO/SW KS moving
into the OK/Northern TX Panhandle should dissipate before
reaching the CWA.

Typical summertime pattern is in store for the CWA. Ridging
remains centered over the Four Corners region with a trof over
the Eastern US. Deep layer ENE flow along with intense heating
will bring mainly a slt chc of convection to the Davis Mtns thru
Thursday. Temps will be near seasonal norms.

The center of the ridge will slide east and become centered over
TX on Friday as a trof moves into the West Coast. The ridge gets
flattened over the upcoming holiday weekend as weak shortwaves
move across the US. This will bring a westerly flow to the
Southern Plains and allow monsoonal moisture to spread east. This
could bring a slt chc/chc of thunderstorms across the higher
terrain with a slt chc over the Plains. Temps look to be a little
above normal...near 100 in the Plains to near 105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys. Temps will be mainly in the 90s over the
mtns. Ridging will amplify a bit next Tue/Wed resulting in
convection mainly over the higher terrain along with slightly
above normal temps.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       94  68  96  69 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  92  70  95  71 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 85  66  88  67 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          91  66  94  67 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          85  59  87  61 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  70  96  71 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         93  71  95  72 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           95  70  97  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291116 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
616 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...A line of convection extends from just northwest of
Corpus Christi east over the Gulf of Mexico. At this time the
line is stationary but is expected to begin a slow southward
movement later this morning. confidence is low if this line works
its way into TAF terminal sites however, additional development
from outflow from this convection or thunderstorm development from
sea breeze interaction is possible this afternoon. VFR conditions
to prevail outside of any convection with a sct-bkn cumulus field
during the afternoon. surface winds will be light from the
southeast during the day and southwest overnight. some strong
gusty winds near thunderstorms are likely.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Eastern-South Texas remains
on the eastern periphery of the large scale ridge centered over
the 4 corners area and along the western end of an upper trough
extending across the northwest-northern Gulf of Mexico. This
places our CWA under a weak upper shear zone with sufficient
moisture below 700mb to allow for isolated to scattered convection
today through Thursday. Short term models continue to indicate a
residual surface trough or shear line over the northwest Gulf and
eastern Texas which is progged to move south to southwest under
the general mid to upper level northeast flow. Both NAM and GFS
indicate higher moisture content along the shear line pushing
precipitable water values over 2 inches later today and tonight.
The higher moisture values and the shear line remain along the Rio
Grande River through Thursday with some limited drier air working
into the northwest zones as the center of the upper ridge edges
closer.

Overall, looking for a isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms anywhere in the CWA later today, tonight and
Thursday. Sea breeze could help initiate convection across the
coastal counties the next two days today with light surface winds,
while out flow boundaries from South Central Texas could allow for
thunderstorms to move into or develop across Northern and Western
zones mainly in the evening hours. Although, not expecting severe
weather can not rule out some of the storms to produce gusty winds
along with locally heavy rainfall. Forecast soundings show an
inverted V signature across the northern and western zones where
some drier boundary layer air resides. This may result in strong
gusty winds within a few thunderstorms.

As for temperatures both max and mins continue near seasonal
averages today and Thursday with the expected isolated to
scattered convection. While the heat indices remain in the 102-107
degrees range.

Long Term (Thursday night through Tuesday): Mid level ridging will
initially remain aloft over the Southwest United States while a
weakness is above the mouth of the Mississippi River. In general
however, a broad, flat mid level pattern will develop, supporting a
hot, dry forecast. Rain chances will remain limited during the long
term while temperatures creep higher. Highs in the upper 80s can be
expected at the beach, with lower 90s along the coast to a handful
of degrees above the century mark out west each afternoon. Afternoon
heat index values will register in the 105 to 110 degree range, with
a few marks of up to 112, especially across Starr County, thus
threatening heat advisory conditions.

MARINE:
Now through Thursday...Weak surface boundary over the northern
gulf will keep a weak wind and low seas regime across the Lower
Texas Coastal waters the next few day. Expect a southeast to east
sea breeze during the day and a light west to southwest land
breeze at night. seas to remain 2 feet or less. The surface
boundary may allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms anytime today through Thursday. Any of these
thunderstorms could produce locally higher winds and seas long
with lightning strikes.

Thursday night through Sunday...Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas will persist through Saturday as broad high pressure
covers the Gulf. Increasing wind strength Saturday night through
Sunday will result in slowly building seas. Small craft exercise
caution conditions will be possible Saturday night through Sunday
with southeast winds becoming moderate to fresh. Seas will build to
between moderate and high by Monday, also making exercise caution
conditions possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  78  93  78 /  20  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          94  77  94  78 /  20  10  20  10
HARLINGEN            97  75  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
MCALLEN              99  76  99  77 /  20  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  76 101  77 /  20  10  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  81  86  80 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/54




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291055
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
555 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions will prevail today through Thursday morning.
Localized BR with IFR/MVFR VSBYs expected early this morning and
possibly early Thursday morning where recent rains have fallen and
enhanced soil moisture. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA are possible S of KECU to
KHYI to KGYB line late morning into this afternoon. SHRA/TSRA may
bring brief IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. BR/SHRA/TSRA are currently not
expected at the TAF sites due to very low PROBS, however, will
monitor trends for possible later mention. NE to E winds 5 to 9
KTS mid morning through early evening, otherwise VRBL 5 KTS or
less are expected. SHRA/TSRA may produce winds gusts up to 35 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
South Central Texas is sandwiched between a mid-to-upper level
ridge centered over the Four Corners region and a progressive
trough moving through the Ohio and Lower Mississippi River
Valleys. Light northerly surface winds are in place across the
region as the outflow boundary that caused convection yesterday
is now located between Cotulla and Laredo extending east towards
Corpus Christi into the Gulf of Mexico. Storms forming off of this
boundary should continue its southward progression to prevent it
from being a focus for convective development across the region
tomorrow. However, moisture from another dissipating MCS near
Abilene moving southward along the eastern periphery of the ridge
may supply enough moisture to help generate convection during the
late morning and afternoon hours mainly along and south of a line
from Rocksprings to San Marcos to Lexington. Rain chances will
diminish through the afternoon from north to south as relatively
dry air and a developing subsidence inversion at midlevels reduces
CAPE. Any storms that develop may produce brief downbursts to 40
miles per hour given shallow inverted-V signatures, but coverage
should be very isolated.

Winds should be light and northerly during the afternoon to keep
today`s high temperatures 3-5 degrees cooler than on Tuesday
closer to seasonal normals. The mid-to-upper level ridge begins to
shift east into west Texas by Thursday to further increase
midlevel stability and limit isolated convection to Coastal
Plains. This will also begin a gradual warmup through the weekend
as temperatures increase back above seasonal normals.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The upper level ridge will continue moving east into Central Texas
on Friday and Saturday to further increase temperatures into the
mid 90s to lower 100s and eliminate all rain chances across the
region except for very isolated showers in the Coastal Plains. A
weak trough moving through the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma will
briefly flatten out the ridge on Sunday to help keep temperatures
from increasing further before a more elongated subtropical ridge
builds over the southern half of the country for the middle of
next week when temperatures may begin approaching the 100 degree
mark along the I-35 corridor. Heat indices will likely increase
above 105 degrees for areas along and east of I-35 by Saturday
through at least the middle of next week and likely longer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  75  96  75  97 /  10  -   -   -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  94  72  96  72  97 /  10  -   -   -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  72  96  73  97 /  20  10  10  -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            93  72  95  73  96 /  10  -   -   -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  76  99  77 101 /  20  10  10  -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  73  95  74  96 /  10  -   -   -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             93  73  95  72  97 /  20  10  10  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  72  95  73  95 /  20  10  10  -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  74  95  75  95 /  20  10  10  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  75  95  74  96 /  20  10  10  -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           95  76  97  76  98 /  20  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...LH




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 291006
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
406 AM MDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
As a weak upper disturbance leaves the area, thunderstorms will
become fewer in number the next two days, except for west of the
Continental Divide where moisture levels will be higher. Then on
Friday the disturbance will return and once again increase the
chance of thunderstorms area wide. By Sunday high pressure aloft
will strengthen and allow lowland temperatures to top out at
around 100 degrees Independence Day, along with fewer storms
across the Borderland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper wave definitely delivered yesterday with several
locations receiving substantial precipitation. Today and Thursday
the atmosphere will not be as unstable except for west of the
divide (closer to the deeper moisture), so thunderstorm coverage
should be down across the eastern 2/3 of our CWA. After a rather
mild day yesterday due to cloud cover, temperatures will return to
near normal for a couple of days.

The upper high center to the north has weakened somewhat, and will
shift further east late in the week. In response, the upper wave
after stalling over Sonora will lift northeastward across eastern
AZ & NM Friday into Saturday. This will bring another batch of
thunderstorms across the entire area, peaking Friday evening.
Temps will be slightly below normal during this period.
Atmospheric moisture per the models indicate the possibility of
localized flooding in spots during this time.

After the wave finally exits the desert southwest the upper high
will strengthen and relocate itself over NM & AZ and suppress
thunderstorm activity Sunday through Tuesday. Thus we`ll be back
to isolated valley/scattered mountain storm coverage as we`ll be
depending on surface heating acting upon residual moisture.
Lowland triple digit heat is likely early next week including
Independence Day.

The models diverge by the middle of next week, with the GFS
keeping the upper high pretty much over us for continued hot
weather and low-end thunderstorm activity, while the ECM brings
another upper wave into the picture for a return to an active
thunderstorm regime. That`s beyond this forecast period so we`ll
forget about this confusion for now.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 29/12Z-30/12Z. Look for mostly VFR conditions
to continue through the period. Expect FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN250,
then aft 18Z VCTS FEW-SCT040-060 SCT-BKN080-100 BKN-OVC250 mainly
west of Deming. Winds will generally be southeast at speeds of 12
knots or less through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Shower and storm coverage will decrease the next few days as the
moisture plume shifts west and high pressure strengthens over Texas.
Western zones will see the best chance for wetting precip through
Thursday. Meanwhile an approaching disturbance will help bring the
moisture plume back over us as we approach the weekend increasing
rain potential for all zones.

Temps should run just a bit below normal the next several days with
moisture levels staying elevated. This will result in min RH values
staying above 20 percent this week with very good recoveries
continuing each evening. The area should begin to dry out early next
week allowing for lower RH values and warmer daytime temps.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 94  72  96  73 /  10  10  20  20
Sierra Blanca           89  67  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces              92  69  94  68 /  10  20  20  40
Alamogordo              93  69  95  69 /  20  20  30  20
Cloudcroft              69  53  73  53 /  40  30  50  40
Truth or Consequences   90  68  92  68 /  20  20  30  30
Silver City             86  63  86  62 /  40  40  40  50
Deming                  92  69  94  68 /  10  20  20  40
Lordsburg               92  68  90  66 /  30  30  30  50
West El Paso Metro      94  73  96  74 /  10  10  20  20
Dell City               93  66  96  67 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Hancock            93  72  96  72 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda              89  68  91  67 /  10   0  20  10
Fabens                  94  71  96  71 /  10  10  20  10
Santa Teresa            93  71  96  70 /  10  10  20  20
White Sands HQ          92  71  94  71 /  10  10  20  30
Jornada Range           91  66  94  66 /  10  20  20  30
Hatch                   94  68  96  68 /  10  20  20  40
Columbus                93  70  95  69 /  10  20  30  40
Orogrande               92  71  95  70 /  10  20  30  20
Mayhill                 78  55  81  56 /  30  20  40  30
Mescalero               79  55  82  55 /  30  30  40  40
Timberon                77  54  80  53 /  30  30  40  40
Winston                 83  56  83  56 /  40  20  50  60
Hillsboro               90  64  90  64 /  30  20  40  50
Spaceport               91  68  93  67 /  10  20  20  30
Lake Roberts            87  53  87  53 /  50  40  60  60
Hurley                  87  63  87  62 /  30  30  40  50
Cliff                   91  58  90  57 /  40  40  40  60
Mule Creek              91  53  87  53 /  40  40  50  60
Faywood                 89  63  90  62 /  20  30  30  50
Animas                  93  68  91  66 /  30  30  40  50
Hachita                 92  67  92  65 /  20  30  30  50
Antelope Wells          90  65  89  64 /  30  30  50  50
Cloverdale              88  63  84  62 /  30  40  50  50

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

01 Fausett




000
FXUS64 KEWX 290916
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
416 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
South Central Texas is sandwiched between a mid-to-upper level
ridge centered over the Four Corners region and a progressive
trough moving through the Ohio and Lower Mississippi River
Valleys. Light northerly surface winds are in place across the
region as the outflow boundary that caused convection yesterday
is now located between Cotulla and Laredo extending east towards
Corpus Christi into the Gulf of Mexico. Storms forming off of this
boundary should continue its southward progression to prevent it
from being a focus for convective development across the region
tomorrow. However, moisture from another dissipating MCS near
Abilene moving southward along the eastern periphery of the ridge
may supply enough moisture to help generate convection during the
late morning and afternoon hours mainly along and south of a line
from Rocksprings to San Marcos to Lexington. Rain chances will
diminish through the afternoon from north to south as relatively
dry air and a developing subsidence inversion at midlevels reduces
CAPE. Any storms that develop may produce brief downbursts to 40
miles per hour given shallow inverted-V signatures, but coverage
should be very isolated.

Winds should be light and northerly during the afternoon to keep
today`s high temperatures 3-5 degrees cooler than on Tuesday
closer to seasonal normals. The mid-to-upper level ridge begins to
shift east into west Texas by Thursday to further increase
midlevel stability and limit isolated convection to Coastal
Plains. This will also begin a gradual warmup through the weekend
as temperatures increase back above seasonal normals.


&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The upper level ridge will continue moving east into Central Texas
on Friday and Saturday to further increase temperatures into the
mid 90s to lower 100s and eliminate all rain chances across the
region except for very isolated showers in the Coastal Plains. A
weak trough moving thorugh the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma will
briefly flatten out the ridge on Sunday to help keep temperatures
from increasing further before a more elongated subtropical ridge
builds over the southern half of the country for the middle of
next week when temperatures may begin approaching the 100 degree
mark along the I-35 corridor. Heat indices will likely increase
above 105 degrees for areas along and east of I-35 by Saturday
through at least the middle of next week and likely longer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  75  96  75  97 /  10  -   -   -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  94  72  96  72  97 /  10  -   -   -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  72  96  73  97 /  20  10  10  -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            93  72  95  73  96 /  10  -   -   -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  76  99  77 101 /  20  10  10  -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  73  95  74  96 /  10  -   -   -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             93  73  95  72  97 /  20  10  10  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  72  95  73  95 /  20  10  10  -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  74  95  75  95 /  20  10  10  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  75  95  74  96 /  20  10  10  -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           95  76  97  76  98 /  20  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...LH




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290904
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
404 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): Eastern-South Texas remains
on the eastern periphery of the large scale ridge centered over
the 4 corners area and along the western end of an upper trough
extending across the northwest-northern Gulf of Mexico. This
places our CWA under a weak upper shear zone with sufficient
moisture below 700mb to allow for isolated to scattered convection
today through Thursday. Short term models continue to indicate a
residual surface trough or shear line over the northwest Gulf and
eastern Texas which is progged to move south to southwest under
the general mid to upper level northeast flow. Both NAM and GFS
indicate higher moisture content along the shear line pushing
precipitable water values over 2 inches later today and tonight.
The higher moisture values and the shear line remain along the Rio
Grande River through Thursday with some limited drier air working
into the northwest zones as the center of the upper ridge edges
closer.

Overall, looking for a isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms anywhere in the CWA later today, tonight and
Thursday. Sea breeze could help initiate convection across the
coastal counties the next two days today with light surface winds,
while out flow boundaries from South Central Texas could allow for
thunderstorms to move into or develop across Northern and Western
zones mainly in the evening hours. Although, not expecting severe
weather can not rule out some of the storms to produce gusty winds
along with locally heavy rainfall. Forecast soundings show an
inverted V signature across the northern and western zones where
some drier boundary layer air resides. This may result in strong
gusty winds within a few thunderstorms.

As for temperatures both max and mins continue near seasonal
averages today and Thursday with the expected isolated to
scattered convection. While the heat indices remain in the 102-107
degrees range.

&&

.Long Term (Thursday night through Tuesday): Mid level ridging will
initially remain aloft over the Southwest United States while a
weakness is above the mouth of the Mississippi River. In general
however, a broad, flat mid level pattern will develop, supporting a
hot, dry forecast. Rain chances will remain limited during the long
term while temperatures creep higher. Highs in the upper 80s can be
expected at the beach, with lower 90s along the coast to a handful
of degrees above the century mark out west each afternoon. Afternoon
heat index values will register in the 105 to 110 degree range, with
a few marks of up to 112, especially across Starr County, thus
threatening heat advisory conditions.

&&

.MARINE:
Now through Thursday...Weak surface boundary over the northern
gulf will keep a weak wind and low seas regime across the Lower
Texas Coastal waters the next few day. Expect a southeast to east
sea breeze during the day and a light west to southwest land
breeze at night. seas to remain 2 feet or less. The surface
boundary may allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms anytime today through Thursday. Any of these
thunderstorms could produce locally higher winds and seas long
with lightning strikes.

Thursday night through Sunday...Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas will persist through Saturday as broad high pressure
covers the Gulf. Increasing wind strength Saturday night through
Sunday will result in slowly building seas. Small craft exercise
caution conditions will be possible Saturday night through Sunday
with southeast winds becoming moderate to fresh. Seas will build to
between moderate and high by Monday, also making exercise caution
conditions possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  78  93  78 /  20  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          94  77  94  78 /  20  10  20  10
HARLINGEN            97  75  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
MCALLEN              99  76  99  77 /  20  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  76 101  77 /  20  10  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  81  86  80 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/54/65




000
FXUS64 KCRP 290901
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
401 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

Current activity across the Gulf waters is being driven by a weak
surface trough, old boundary, that is slowly sagging towards the
south this morning over the waters. The boundary looks to be hung up
over the Coastal Bend with some isolated showers possible though a
majority of the activity will remain offshore this morning. PWATs
continue to surge into the 2 to 2.25 inch mark, well above normal,
so still expecting scattered convection to develop during the
afternoon hours across the Coastal Bend and possibly west into the
Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains with outflow interactions.
Temperatures today will once again be on the hot side with low
triple digits west to mid-90s east.

With the loss in daytime heating expecting the scattered shower
activity to dwindle and head back offshore. Left over boundary may
remain offshore tonight so we continue with the chance PoPs and
leave the land areas dry. Still have ample moisture around on
Thursday but looking like less forcing to go around so while not
completely void of convection we should be more isolated in nature
outside of the seabreeze interaction. Temperatures much the same as
on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...

...Dangerous Heat Conditions Possible Over 4th of July Weekend...

A prolonged period of hot and dry conditions is prog to become
established late this week and continue through the holiday weekend.
Center of H5 subtropical ridge is prog to drift across S TX late
this week with strong flat ridging to exist over the weekend into
early next week. This will aid in an increase in mid level temps and
associated subsidence. H85 high pressure center is prog to shift
east through the forecast period and become centered over FL.
Position of the H85 high will allow for drier air in the H9 to H8
layer to advect across the CWA...limiting any precip of significance.
H85 temps also increase in response to the drier layer...with values
approaching 30C across the Brush Country early next week. Despite
drier air around H85...guidance progs an influx of higher near
surface moisture values over the weekend/early next week as some
moisture is pulled northward from the Bay of Campeche. Combination of
all these factors should lead to several days in which afternoon heat
indices across many locations may reach/exceed Heat Advisory levels
/heat indices of 110 degrees or greater/. Addition of influx of
dewpoints from afternoon seabreeze passage each afternoon will likely
further aid in high heat indices /before temps cool slightly from
post seabreeze airmass/. Pressure gradient force also strengthens
over the weekend as low pressure develops across the northern Plains.
Result will be almost a heat furnace effect with breezy/windy
conditions occurring with hot temperatures. Mostly sunny skies over
the holiday weekend due to limited moisture /though some daily Cu
still expected/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  75  93  75  95  /  30  10  30  10  10
Victoria          94  74  93  74  95  /  20  10  20  10  10
Laredo           101  77 100  78 102  /  20  20  10  10   0
Alice             96  73  97  73  98  /  30  10  20  10  10
Rockport          92  78  90  78  93  /  30  20  30  10  10
Cotulla           99  75  99  75 102  /  10  10  10  10   0
Kingsville        95  74  95  74  96  /  30  10  20  10  10
Navy Corpus       91  79  90  79  92  /  30  20  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KSJT 290858
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
358 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper ridge over the 4-corners region will move slowly southeast
towards West Central Texas today. This should suppress most shower
and thunderstorm development, but 1 or 2 storms cannot be ruled
out. Have a slight chance of thunderstorms along and south of I-10
from Iraan to Ozona to Sonora where a dissipated cold front may
provide a focus for development. Otherwise temperatures today are
expected to rise to highs in the lower to mid 90s with lows
tonight in the lower 70s.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

By Thursday, the center of an upper level high pressure area will
be located near the Concho Valley. This area of upper ridging will
remain in the Texas area through next week. The ridge will be
slightly weakened briefly from Saturday night into Monday as
shortwave energy from northwestern Mexico is pulled northeast
into the westerly flow on the northern side of the high pressure
area. As this shortwave moves through the Texas panhandle into
northern Oklahoma, we could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm
Sunday into Monday, mainly north and west of a Throckmorton, to
Anson, to Sterling City line. Otherwise, we will see warmer
temperatures, and dry weather. Have not gone as hot as the MEX
guidance numbers later in the forecast, as wet soils should limit
heating for the areas that saw rainfall these past few days.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  71  94  73 /  10   0   5   0
San Angelo  93  70  94  71 /  10   0   0   0
Junction  94  70  94  71 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KAMA 290854
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
354 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.Discussion...
Diurnal/terrain driven MCS activity will continue to periodically
move southeast within northwesterly flow aloft through Thursday. Some
notable synoptic scale changes occur at the end of the week through
the weekend that have implications for our weather and this will be
discussed further down.

The immediate concern is the mesoscale convective system moving into
the Oklahoma Panhandle from southwest Kansas. Driven by a well
developed cold pool in a sufficiently unstable environment (RAP
MUCAPE around 1,500 J/kg) storms should sustain through much of the
morning, probably moving along a weak low-level theta-e gradient
across the eastern Panhandles. Nocturnally stabilized low levels
should limit the wind threat although a few severe gusts have been
noted over southwest Kansas within the last couple of hours.

Today, the synoptic pattern is generally the same as yesterday with
the mid-upper high positioned slightly further east and weakening
some. These changes yield neutral tendencies in 500 mb heights
through the day over our area with some decrease by evening.
Convective development in our region will depend on how the ongoing
convective system over southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado
evolves with significant overturning possibly precluding afternoon
redevelopment. Residual outflow boundaries will largely determine
specifically where isolated convection may be most likely to develop
this afternoon, if any develop at all. Afternoon development may be
most likely along the western flank of residual MCS possibly further
west than our current forecast indicates. We will make adjustments as
needed but overall the most widespread rain today is anticipated this
morning in the Oklahoma and northeast Texas panhandles.

A strengthening lee low is indicated in all model guidance later
tonight just to our north in response to a weak shortwave trough in
phase with a stronger northern stream wave. This surface low
will elongate and become increasingly baroclinic by Thursday
morning. Increase surface convergence along this quasi-stationary
front, low level theta-e ridging, and subtle forcing for ascent from
passing minor shortwave is expected to result in a fairly high
probabilities for precipitation, particularly across the northern
portion of our area Thursday afternoon and evening. Preceding that
activity, initiation of convection this afternoon over the central
Rockies will probably lead to another MCS overnight that will move
across eastern Colorado and western/central Kansas possibly reaching
northern portions of our area late in the night or Thursday morning.
We have this covered with low chance probabilities for now, but may
need to make adjustments upward. This may augment synoptic boundary
and complicate the convective potential later in the afternoon, so
some changes to timing and probabilities may be needed between now
and then.

We have attempted to highlight when the best chance for precipitation
will be late this week into the weekend during what is expected to be
the more active period. Thursday night through Saturday we will be
on the northern edge of the ridge with mid level flow being more
westerly. The aforementioned front will probably be over the area
through that period although it becomes more diffuse with time.
Periodic convective systems that originate in the mountainous terrain
to the west may impact the area each evening/overnight, although
timing is complicated on Saturday by a shortwave trough that develops
and moves toward the area. This may cause greatest convective
coverage to be earlier in the day mostly moving east by evening. For
now, have stayed consistent with the forecast and kept probabilities
highest during the evening (terrain/diurnally driven convective
system moving east over the area again) given uncertainty in timing
of this shortwave in the model guidance.

Medium range guidance shows that the strongest westerlies will be
north of the area Sunday through Monday with generally weak flow
aloft over our area. Small perturbations in the flow necessitate at
least low probabilities though.

BRB

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                95  68  94  67  92 /  20  10  30  30  20
Beaver OK                  97  70  93  66  86 /  80  30  50  60  40
Boise City OK              95  65  87  62  83 /  30  20  50  60  50
Borger TX                  97  71  95  68  92 /  30  10  40  40  20
Boys Ranch TX              98  69  95  67  93 /  20  10  30  30  20
Canyon TX                  95  67  96  67  94 /  20  10  20  20  20
Clarendon TX               94  68  94  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
Dalhart TX                 96  67  92  64  90 /  20  20  50  40  30
Guymon OK                  98  69  91  66  87 /  80  20  50  60  40
Hereford TX                94  67  97  66  94 /  10  10  20  20  20
Lipscomb TX                95  69  96  67  89 /  70  20  50  60  40
Pampa TX                   95  69  94  67  91 /  40  20  40  40  20
Shamrock TX                95  69  96  69  94 /  40  20  30  30  20
Wellington TX              97  70  96  71  97 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/17




000
FXUS64 KAMA 290854
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
354 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.Discussion...
Diurnal/terrain driven MCS activity will continue to periodically
move southeast within northwesterly flow aloft through Thursday. Some
notable synoptic scale changes occur at the end of the week through
the weekend that have implications for our weather and this will be
discussed further down.

The immediate concern is the mesoscale convective system moving into
the Oklahoma Panhandle from southwest Kansas. Driven by a well
developed cold pool in a sufficiently unstable environment (RAP
MUCAPE around 1,500 J/kg) storms should sustain through much of the
morning, probably moving along a weak low-level theta-e gradient
across the eastern Panhandles. Nocturnally stabilized low levels
should limit the wind threat although a few severe gusts have been
noted over southwest Kansas within the last couple of hours.

Today, the synoptic pattern is generally the same as yesterday with
the mid-upper high positioned slightly further east and weakening
some. These changes yield neutral tendencies in 500 mb heights
through the day over our area with some decrease by evening.
Convective development in our region will depend on how the ongoing
convective system over southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado
evolves with significant overturning possibly precluding afternoon
redevelopment. Residual outflow boundaries will largely determine
specifically where isolated convection may be most likely to develop
this afternoon, if any develop at all. Afternoon development may be
most likely along the western flank of residual MCS possibly further
west than our current forecast indicates. We will make adjustments as
needed but overall the most widespread rain today is anticipated this
morning in the Oklahoma and northeast Texas panhandles.

A strengthening lee low is indicated in all model guidance later
tonight just to our north in response to a weak shortwave trough in
phase with a stronger northern stream wave. This surface low
will elongate and become increasingly baroclinic by Thursday
morning. Increase surface convergence along this quasi-stationary
front, low level theta-e ridging, and subtle forcing for ascent from
passing minor shortwave is expected to result in a fairly high
probabilities for precipitation, particularly across the northern
portion of our area Thursday afternoon and evening. Preceding that
activity, initiation of convection this afternoon over the central
Rockies will probably lead to another MCS overnight that will move
across eastern Colorado and western/central Kansas possibly reaching
northern portions of our area late in the night or Thursday morning.
We have this covered with low chance probabilities for now, but may
need to make adjustments upward. This may augment synoptic boundary
and complicate the convective potential later in the afternoon, so
some changes to timing and probabilities may be needed between now
and then.

We have attempted to highlight when the best chance for precipitation
will be late this week into the weekend during what is expected to be
the more active period. Thursday night through Saturday we will be
on the northern edge of the ridge with mid level flow being more
westerly. The aforementioned front will probably be over the area
through that period although it becomes more diffuse with time.
Periodic convective systems that originate in the mountainous terrain
to the west may impact the area each evening/overnight, although
timing is complicated on Saturday by a shortwave trough that develops
and moves toward the area. This may cause greatest convective
coverage to be earlier in the day mostly moving east by evening. For
now, have stayed consistent with the forecast and kept probabilities
highest during the evening (terrain/diurnally driven convective
system moving east over the area again) given uncertainty in timing
of this shortwave in the model guidance.

Medium range guidance shows that the strongest westerlies will be
north of the area Sunday through Monday with generally weak flow
aloft over our area. Small perturbations in the flow necessitate at
least low probabilities though.

BRB

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                95  68  94  67  92 /  20  10  30  30  20
Beaver OK                  97  70  93  66  86 /  80  30  50  60  40
Boise City OK              95  65  87  62  83 /  30  20  50  60  50
Borger TX                  97  71  95  68  92 /  30  10  40  40  20
Boys Ranch TX              98  69  95  67  93 /  20  10  30  30  20
Canyon TX                  95  67  96  67  94 /  20  10  20  20  20
Clarendon TX               94  68  94  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
Dalhart TX                 96  67  92  64  90 /  20  20  50  40  30
Guymon OK                  98  69  91  66  87 /  80  20  50  60  40
Hereford TX                94  67  97  66  94 /  10  10  20  20  20
Lipscomb TX                95  69  96  67  89 /  70  20  50  60  40
Pampa TX                   95  69  94  67  91 /  40  20  40  40  20
Shamrock TX                95  69  96  69  94 /  40  20  30  30  20
Wellington TX              97  70  96  71  97 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

3/17




000
FXUS64 KMAF 290848
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
348 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...As of 3:45 AM CDT Wednesday...Other than some mid
level convective debris clouds it is a quiet morning across West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico. An MCS in SE CO/SW KS moving
into the OK/Northern TX Panhandle should dissipate before
reaching the CWA.

Typical summertime pattern is in store for the CWA. Ridging
remains centered over the Four Corners region with a trof over
the Eastern US. Deep layer ENE flow along with intense heating
will bring mainly a slt chc of convection to the Davis Mtns thru
Thursday. Temps will be near seasonal norms.

The center of the ridge will slide east and become centered over
TX on Friday as a trof moves into the West Coast. The ridge gets
flattened over the upcoming holiday weekend as weak shortwaves
move across the US. This will bring a westerly flow to the
Southern Plains and allow monsoonal moisture to spread east. This
could bring a slt chc/chc of thunderstorms across the higher
terrain with a slt chc over the Plains. Temps look to be a little
above normal...near 100 in the Plains to near 105 in the Pecos and
Rio Grande River Valleys. Temps will be mainly in the 90s over the
mtns. Ridging will amplify a bit next Tue/Wed resulting in
convection mainly over the higher terrain along with slightly
above normal temps.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  71  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       94  68  96  69 /  10   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  92  70  95  71 /  10   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 85  66  88  67 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          91  66  94  67 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          85  59  87  61 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  70  96  71 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         93  71  95  72 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           95  70  97  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/33




000
FXUS64 KHGX 290828
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
328 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered shra/tsra are located well offshore early this morning where
an outflow boundary and deep moisture are present. Will likely see
a few shra/tsra develop closer to the coast later this morning.
With heating today expect scattered activity to develop across the
SE half of the area. However...precip coverage will be
considerably less as compared to yesterday as the 2+ inch
precipitable water values are south of the area and in the NW
Gulf. Will continue to see the atmosphere dry on Thursday. On
Friday will see moisture levels creep up across the SE 1/3rd of
the area which likely lead to sct mainly afternoon convection.

This weekend the mid/upper level ridge will be positioned overhead
and we should see little chc of rain and slightly warmer
temperatures. Heat indices will also be on the rise over the
holiday weekend. Early next week our weather is likely to
continue to be dominated by a broad mid/upper ridge across the
southern U.S. However, there are some weaknesses in the ridge
that could result in some day to day variability in rain chcs. 33

&&

.MARINE...
Through the end of the week, mainly light and variable winds and
low seas will persist.  There will be lingering chances for showers
and thunderstorms (and associated higher winds and seas) with a
focusing boundary in the area.  An onshore slow is expected to return
to the area on Thursday and Thursday night but will not begin to
strengthen until Friday night or Saturday when low pressure over West
Texas begins to deepen.  Moderate south winds and slightly elevated
seas will persist through the holiday weekend, and caution flags might
be needed.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      94  75  94  75  95 /  20  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              95  76  95  76  95 /  30  10  20  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            90  79  91  80  91 /  30  20  20  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 290819
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
319 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Thunderstorms that developed and were pushing south and west late
last night have dissipated by early this morning leaving behind a
remnant outflow boundary that continues to slowly work westward.
Further north, a developing MCS continues to push southward and a
few of the 00Z models tried to push the complex into the northern
part of the forecast area by sunrise.  Based on the current
southward motion, the earliest the MCS would make it into the
northern zones would be around 10 AM CDT so confidence in the model
solutions is pretty low.  Will keep precipitation out of the
forecast for this morning thinking that the MCS will start to decay
before making it into the forecast area.  However, there could be
either a remnant outflow boundary from the MCS or perhaps an MCV
that would propagate over the area and interact with the first
outflow boundary to initiate some storms.  Unfortunately the models
are all over the place with coverage of storms this afternoon with
the TTU-WRF, RAP, HRRR, and HiRes-ARW all hinting at isolated
afternoon thunderstorms storms like we have seen the last several
days. The NAM12, NSSL WRF, and GFS keep the forecast area dry.
Forecast soundings do show MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg across the
majority of the forecast area, but there will be a bit more of a cap
to overcome as well.  Will keep a mention of isolated thunderstorms
across the northeastern two-thirds of the area this afternoon into
the early evening but feel that any storms would dissipate shortly
after sunset and only carried thunder in the weather grids through
03Z as a result.

Temperatures today should be fairly close to what we saw yesterday
as models show little change in the atmospheric profile across the
area, although any remnant cloud cover from the MCS across Kansas
may keep temperatures a degree or two cooler over the Rolling
Plains.  Likewise, low temperatures Thursday morning will be pretty
much the same as this morning unless convection lingers into the
early morning hours.

Jordan

.LONG TERM...
Only minor adjustments made to the extended forecast with the summer
heat being the overwhelming theme mixed in with the occasional low
thunderstorm chances. This heat will supplied by an upper ridge that
will migrate from the Four Corners early this morning to the center
of Texas by late week. As the center of the ridge shifts to our
southeast we will see a plume of monsoon moisture be drawn around
the west and northwest periphery of the ridge. At the same time a
quasi-stationary surface boundary is expected to settle across the
northern Texas Panhandle into northern Oklahoma and/or southern
Kansas from late Thursday through Friday and into Saturday. The
surface front coupled with the improved mid-upper level moisture
and occasional upper level disturbance will support rounds of
convection translating eastward from the southern Rockies in the
plains. However, unless the frontal boundary can make further
southward progress than currently depicted in the NWP (which may
be possible given the support of MCS outflows, though the nearby
upper ridge will have something to say about that) it still
appears the best storm chances will reside to our north through
late week. In fact the latest trends continue to delay the
approach of the monsoon moisture and rain chances for our
northern/northwest zones. Given this trend we have continued to
lower/remove PoPs Thursday and Friday though we have maintained a
minimal thunder mention across our far northern/northwestern
zones.

The storm chances (albeit only in the 15-30 percent range) should
peak late Saturday into early Sunday as the deeper moisture bends
more squarely overhead and a weak shortwave trough grazes the South
Plains to the north. Beyond that, it does appear there may be enough
residual moisture and heat to provide at least isolated storm
chances lingering into early next week even as the upper ridge may
attempt to bridge its way back into the Desert Southwest.
Although confidence in the synoptic scale details is not high
toward the end of the forecast enough of the factors/signals are
there to maintain a minimal thunder mention.

Temperatures through the extended are expected to reside on the warm
side of guidance. Highs in the mid-upper 90s will be fairly common
with some triple digits also possible (favoring the lower
elevations).

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

14/23




000
FXUS64 KFWD 290817
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
317 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The remnants of the MCS which pushed south through Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas last night has sent some high clouds across the
area early this morning, otherwise it has all but dissipated. A
second MCS currently moving south through southwest Kansas will
approach from the northwest during the morning hours, but it is
expected to diminish before reaching our northwestern counties.
These systems are moving within the anticyclonic flow around an
upper ridge currently centered over the Desert Southwest. The
ridge is progged to develop eastward across the Texas and the
Southern Plains over the next few days, bringing a return to the
hot dry weather across North and Central Texas for the rest of the
week. There is an outside chance that another convective complex
will graze the northern counties tonight, but probabilities for
any precip reaching the area remain low.

Northeast flow at the surface will veer to more of an easterly
direction today before returning to the southeast Thursday. A
slow return of low level moisture will then ensue, which when
combined with the upper 90s high temperatures, will lead to heat
indices in the 100 to 105 range Friday through the weekend.

By Sunday, the ridge is forecast to flatten out with zonal flow
developing across the CONUS. A shortwave trough will traverse the
Southern Plains Sunday Night into Independence Day, bringing a
chance of convection across parts of the area just in time for
Fourth of July festivities. At this time, it looks like these rain
chances will be confined to counties immediately north of the
Dallas-Fort Worth area where the best lift from the shortwave will
occur. Seasonably hot and rain-free conditions are expected
elsewhere. However, we will need to keep track of future model
solutions regarding the shortwave, as a farther south track would
warrant expanding POPs farther south and vice versa.

Dry weather will return by the middle of next week as the ridge
once again strengthens overhead.



30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1147 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/
/06Z TAFs/

An MCS surging through western portions of North Texas is steadily
diminishing in intensity. The complex will continue to ingest
unstable parcels early this morning but will remain well west of
our TAF sites.

Light winds will be primarily north and east overnight into the
morning hours, but speeds will remain low enough to allow
commercial airports to begin the day in south flow. As the ridge
steadily reasserts itself, the remainder of the week should be
rain-free.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  78  98  77  98 /   0   5   5   5   5
Waco                95  75  97  74  97 /  10   5   5   5   5
Paris               95  73  95  73  93 /   0   5   5   5  10
Denton              95  74  96  74  95 /   0   5   5   5  10
McKinney            95  73  95  74  94 /   0   5   5   5  10
Dallas              97  78  98  78  98 /   5   5   5   5   5
Terrell             95  75  96  74  95 /   5   5   5   5   5
Corsicana           95  75  97  76  97 /   5   5   5   5   5
Temple              94  73  96  73  96 /  10   5   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       94  71  96  72  95 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 290604
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
104 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...The MCS dropping south has weakened. Therefore...have
cleared the northern counties in collaboration with SPC from
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #308. Grids have been updated.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1144 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Winds will be light out of mostly the southeast throughout the
period. Generally expect VFR conditions although a few areas may
see ceilings go below VFR for a brief amount of time
overnight/early Wednesday morning. A storm complex approaching the
area may result in gusty northerly winds later overnight for MAF
and perhaps HOB.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 932 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Grids have been updated for Severe Thunderstorm Watch Box # 308
until 08z Wednesday for Borden, Dawson and Scurry counties of west
Texas.

Also increased pops in those 3 counties in the watch box overnight
and increased qpf grid.

Updated products to be sent shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
clusters across our region. The first area is across the higher
terrain and is associated with the weakening upper low that has
moved into northern Mexico. These storms are producing some heavy
rain and should continue to move east into the evening hours. The
other main area of convection appears to be forming along a weak
boundary across the Permian Basin. These storms are moving very
slowly south and with daytime heating should continue to develop.
Some Hi-Res models show a thunderstorm complex forming near
Amarillo this afternoon and part of it moving south toward our
region overnight. Although this is a low probability, it is not
out of the question due to high amounts of moisture and some
instability across the region. Will leave at least some low PoPs
in tonight across the northern half of the area.

The upper ridge will return by midweek as it builds in from the
northwest, though mid level heights won`t be too high. Showers and
storms will stay mostly confined to the mountains tomorrow before
more extensive drying occurs areawide Thursday. The center of the
ridge moves southeast into central and southern Texas late this week
allowing for monsoonal moisture to spread across far West Texas and
New Mexico. Some of this moisture will spread east across the
Permian Basin this weekend so we could see an uptick in showers and
storms just in time for the July 4th holiday. Temperatures will
increase to near normal tomorrow through the end of the week. High
temperature guidance has come down slightly for this weekend, likely
due to increasing moisture. For now will stay on the conservative
side and continue to keep highs mostly in the 90`s to near 100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  69  90  70 /  10   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       93  69  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         95  74  97  74 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  90  70  94  71 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  66  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          91  66  94  68 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          84  62  87  63 /  30  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  70  95  71 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                         92  71  94  72 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                           93  70  95  72 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/33




000
FXUS64 KMAF 290604
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
104 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...The MCS dropping south has weakened. Therefore...have
cleared the northern counties in collaboration with SPC from
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #308. Grids have been updated.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1144 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Winds will be light out of mostly the southeast throughout the
period. Generally expect VFR conditions although a few areas may
see ceilings go below VFR for a brief amount of time
overnight/early Wednesday morning. A storm complex approaching the
area may result in gusty northerly winds later overnight for MAF
and perhaps HOB.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 932 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Grids have been updated for Severe Thunderstorm Watch Box # 308
until 08z Wednesday for Borden, Dawson and Scurry counties of west
Texas.

Also increased pops in those 3 counties in the watch box overnight
and increased qpf grid.

Updated products to be sent shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
clusters across our region. The first area is across the higher
terrain and is associated with the weakening upper low that has
moved into northern Mexico. These storms are producing some heavy
rain and should continue to move east into the evening hours. The
other main area of convection appears to be forming along a weak
boundary across the Permian Basin. These storms are moving very
slowly south and with daytime heating should continue to develop.
Some Hi-Res models show a thunderstorm complex forming near
Amarillo this afternoon and part of it moving south toward our
region overnight. Although this is a low probability, it is not
out of the question due to high amounts of moisture and some
instability across the region. Will leave at least some low PoPs
in tonight across the northern half of the area.

The upper ridge will return by midweek as it builds in from the
northwest, though mid level heights won`t be too high. Showers and
storms will stay mostly confined to the mountains tomorrow before
more extensive drying occurs areawide Thursday. The center of the
ridge moves southeast into central and southern Texas late this week
allowing for monsoonal moisture to spread across far West Texas and
New Mexico. Some of this moisture will spread east across the
Permian Basin this weekend so we could see an uptick in showers and
storms just in time for the July 4th holiday. Temperatures will
increase to near normal tomorrow through the end of the week. High
temperature guidance has come down slightly for this weekend, likely
due to increasing moisture. For now will stay on the conservative
side and continue to keep highs mostly in the 90`s to near 100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  69  90  70 /  10   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       93  69  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         95  74  97  74 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  90  70  94  71 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  66  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          91  66  94  68 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          84  62  87  63 /  30  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  70  95  71 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                         92  71  94  72 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                           93  70  95  72 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/33




000
FXUS64 KCRP 290558
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1258 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 06Z aviation cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

This morning...Mostly VFR. Could see a few pockets of MVFR
cigs/vsbys around, mostly KALI/KVCT by sunrise. Light and variable
surface flow is expected with some cirrus overhead. Thinking that
we should remain dry the remainder of the morning. Medium to high
confidence.

Today...VFR. Weak surface boundary continues to sag farther south
today touching off more isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity later this afternoon with MVFR/IFR
conditions possible. We retain the prob30 and tempo groups as is.
Medium confidence overall.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 747 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Updated evening POPs to mainly focus convection across the
northern areas including the Victoria Crossroads, and for the
western areas across the Brush Country. Western activity forming
ahead/along the seabreeze boundary and should diminish with the
loss of heating. The seabreeze along with outflow boundaries from
earlier storms across the northern Coastal Bend has led to a
stable airmass along the coastal locations which should keep quiet
for the next several hours. However, northward along a weak
boundary will continue isolated to scattered showers to move into
the northern zones where latest meso-analysis shows CAPE values of
1500-2500 J/kg and little to no CIN. With additional outflow
boundaries, should see gradual increase in CIN values and
diminishing of overall coverage. A few storms may continue to
pulse along boundary convergences with strong winds being the
biggest concern along with small hail possible. Convection
development should then shift focus more across the eastern CWA
overnight due to proximity of the weak boundary and midlevel
support that will slide into South Texas.

Outside of this, tweaked hourly temperature grids to follow
trends but did not lower the overnight forecast low.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday night)...

A mid/upper level ridge is helping to push a weak boundary southward
across E TX this afternoon. This boundary is expectd to drift into
the NE CWA through the late afternoon/evening hours. PWATs of around
2 inches are pooling along this boundary and combining with strong
low level convergence, which is resulting in sct convection.
Kept a 30 pop across the NE CWA for this afternoon and evening to
account for this convection moving into the VCT Crossroads. Given a
drier mid layer, strong wind gusts will be the primary threat from
these storms. However, am not expecting severe weather due to some
inhibition from the ridge aloft. With the loss of daytime heating,
the better chances shift more over the coastal waters by late
evening. Chances then increase across the entire CWA by Wed as the
weak boundary drifts or stalls across the area. The best chance of
tsra`s is expected to be along the coastal counties and over the
waters through Wed afternoon due to the placement of the deepest
moisture and strongest convergence. Therefore went with a 40 POP for
those areas. The better tsra chances then shift offshore by Wed
night as the mid level ridge builds farther south across S TX.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Deterministic output continues to build the upper ridge over the
CWA/MSA during the period which will result in increasing
subsidence/drying. NAM deterministic maintains PWAT values
near/above normal over the CWA until Saturday. Will reflect the
decreasing chance for convection with a forecast of SCT convection
over the ERN CWA/MSA Thursday to no significant activity over the
CWA/MSA Saturday (generally consistent with GFS ensemble mean
QPF/superblend POPs.) The upper pattern transitions (per GFS
ensemble mean) to one characterized by a E-W oriented ridge across
the SRN CONUS with quasi-zonal flow over the NRN CONUS. This pattern
would be conducive to persist onshore flow (SCEC conditions
anticipated over the MSA Saturday/Sunday) which may maintain near
normal PWAT values over the CWA (GFS deterministic) yet increasing
afternoon CIN values/upper ridge may suppress convection (lack of
GFS ensemble mean QPF also adds credence.) Thus...no precipitation
anticipated Sunday-Tuesday. Anticipate max heat index values at
least 105-109F over the CWA. Added patchy fog to early Friday
morning to the CNTRL CWA owing to SREF VIS probabilities and
physically consistent with drying aloft/near surface moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  75  93  77  94  /  40  10  20  10  10
Victoria          94  74  93  74  93  /  30  10  20  10  20
Laredo           101  77 100  78 103  /  30  10  10   0   0
Alice             96  73  97  75  98  /  30  10  10  10  10
Rockport          92  78  90  80  90  /  40  20  30  10  20
Cotulla           99  75  99  76 101  /  30  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        94  75  96  76  97  /  30  10  20  10  10
Navy Corpus       91  79  89  80  90  /  40  10  30  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290545 AAC
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1245 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions to prevail overnight. some patchy fog
and patchy mvfr cigs might develop around sunrise but should only
persist up to an hour or until daytime heating mixes out the
surface moisture/ground fog. daytime cumulus field develops mid to
late morning with another possible seabreeze with isolated convection
in the afternoon. a weak disturbance in the mid layer of the
atmosphere may increase the areal coverage of the storms so will
maintain a low probability of tsra in the TAFs for HRL and BRO.
convection may linger and impact MFE but confidence is below
average at this time but might need to add into later TAF
issuances. southeast winds to remain light to moderate with gusts
below 20 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1007 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...Update to the forecast tonight to add mention of
showers and thunderstorms to the northern counties in the CWA. A
rather progressive outflow boundary is tracking almost due south
late this evening and convection continues to be maintained. As
such...have at least chance POPs going late tonight...with slight
chances after midnight. There is some uncertainty as to how far
south the outflow and subsequent convection will move and have
opted to leave any mention of precip to the ranchlands vicinity
and out of the lower valley area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 711 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Seabreeze/outflow convection has pushed well to the
west of the TAF locations and do not expect any TS activity this
evening. Light and variable winds and generally VRF conditions
will prevail through the overnight period...with brief MVFR
visbys possible at KMFE. There is an increased chance for some
-TRSA late in the period as an upper level disturbance and weak
boundary push into the northern Gulf coastal water.
However...most of the activity should remain north of the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Overall, a high-pressure
ridge axis aloft stretching back toward the Four Corners region
continues to dominate the region. Lower-level moisture yielded a
precipitable water value of 1.91" on the 12Z BRO sounding, and
convergence along the seabreeze front has provided enough forcing
to pop isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the
southeastern counties, thus far today. Showers/storms should
continue to propagate westward, reaching the McAllen metro area
around 4-5pm, and then dissipating by sunset. Areal coverage to
remain limited, though, as drier air aloft can be seen on water-
vapor imagery working into the region from the north at this time.
Tonight, clear skies and light winds will also contribute to some
patchy fog developing over the northern ranchlands and brush
country, but should mainly stay out of the mid- lower Rio Grande
Valley.

Also for later tonight into Wednesday, both NAM and GFS indicate
that an old surface shear line/mid-level vorticity lobe currently
over East Texas will sag into the area.  Moisture pooling along the
boundary will allow precipitable water to recover to near 2.0" for
the coastal areas and offshore waters. Bumped up shower chances a
bit for the morning hours Wednesday (but still isolated) and then
into low-end scattered PoP`s for areas generally east of Hwy.
281/69C in the afternoon as sea-breeze forcing kicks in.  Wednesday
night should be mainly quiet weather-wise.

Both max and min temps look to remain with a degree or two of
climatological normals in the short-term.  Heat indices on Wednesday
will reach 102-107 degrees most areas.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): A strong 500mb ridge
will build and remain over Texas and across the western Gulf of
Mexico through the forecast period. Subsidence and dry air aloft
will generally maintain rain-free conditions across Deep South
Texas. However, the combination of a mid level weakness over the
north central Gulf of Mexico and increase moisture may support
some coastal convection on Thursday. Breezy south-southeast winds
develop by the weekend as the temperature gradient strengthens.
This will also allow for dewpoints to increase the heat indices
across the area. Heat index values will approach and may exceed
110 degrees this weekend. Heat advisories may be needed for
portions of Deep South Texas this holiday weekend into early next
week.

MARINE: Tonight through Wednesday night...While isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the marine
areas for the next 36 hours, otherwise tranquil marine conditions
will continue to dominate. Weak pressure gradient across the
northwest Gulf will keep winds no higher than 10 knots, which will
keep seas 2 feet or less.

Thursday through Sunday...Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas Thursday will steadily increase by the weekend as the
pressure gradient tightens. Increasing winds and building seas are
expected to reach possible small craft advisory conditions over the
Laguna Madre and offshore Gulf waters this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  93  79  94 /  10  10   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          77  94  79  95 /  10  10   0   0
HARLINGEN            75  96  77  98 /  10  10   0   0
MCALLEN              76  98  77 100 /  10  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      76 101  77 103 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  86  82  87 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/99




000
FXUS64 KEWX 290541
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1241 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
ISOLD/WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA will develop with solar heating Wednesday
midday through afternoon. However, have left out mention from TAFs
as PROBS are less than 30 percent. VFR skies prevail overnight
thru Wednesday night. Except, a brief period of MVFR CIGs/VSBYs is
possible early Wednesday morning, 10Z-14Z, at KAUS due to rains on
Tuesday saturating the lower levels. VRBL winds less than 5 KTS
will become NE to E 5 to 9 KTS on Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

UPDATE...
Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

AVIATION...
Convection continues to develop along an outflow boundary
stretched from the coastal plains, western Hill Country into the
southern Edwards Plateau. Based on radar trend, we will mention
VCTS at KSAT and KSSF through 02Z. A similar forecast for KDRT,
although confidence is high enough to mention a tempo group for
TSRA through 03Z. For KAUS, only light showers are expected for a
few more hours this evening. For the overnight hours, the models
do show some better moisture in the 4-6k agl range. If clouds
first develop in this layer, low clouds may not materialize.
However, given the precipitation ongoing, we have decided to
mention a TEMPO group for MVFR cigs at KAUS between 09Z-13Z. For
KSAT, KSSF and KDRT confidence is not as good for low cigs and
will only mention SCT low clouds for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop mainly along and
north of an outflow boundary. This boundary is currently located
along a line near Kerrville to Georgetown to College Station. As
this boundary continues to slowly sag southward, the coverage of
shower and storm activity should increase as well farther to the
south. CAPE values up to 2,000 J/Kg should allow for one or two
strong storms with gusty winds being the main hazard. Some
locations will likely receive greater than a 1/2 of an inch of
rainfall while other locations will receive no rainfall today. The
bulk of the activity will decrease in coverage and strength with
the loss of day time heating with clear conditions expected after
midnight. Low temperatures tonight will bottom out in the lower to
middle 70s across much of the area.

As the remnant outflow boundary sags southward overnight and
tomorrow morning, this should allow most of the shower and storm
activity to be confined to the southern half of the area. These
storms will once again be primarily diurnally driven within the
peak heating hours of the day. Convective temperatures tomorrow
will be around 90 degrees and these should be met around the noon
to 1 pm hour once again. Highs tomorrow will once again top out in
the lower 90s to upper 90s across the area.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
By Thursday, the sub-tropical ridge axis which had been anchored
across the southwestern CONUS will shift eastward and remain over
Texas before flattening out a bit by late in the weekend. This
should allow rain chances to end for all but the extreme
southeastern CWA where some weak showers will remain likely in the
afternoon hours. This ridge will also cause max/min temperatures
to rise a few degrees as well. Heat index values could top 105
degrees again for areas east of the Interstate 35 corridor Sunday
through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  95  75  95  76 /  10  10  -   10  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  95  72  95  74 /  10  10  -   10  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  95  73  95  75 /  10  10  -   10  -
Burnet Muni Airport            73  94  73  94  75 /  10   0  -   -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  98  77  98  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  94  74  94  76 /  10  10  -   10  -
Hondo Muni Airport             72  94  72  94  75 /  10  -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  93  72  93  74 /  10  10  -   10  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  94  75  94  76 /  10  10  -   20  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  93  75  93  77 /  10  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  96  75  96  77 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...04
Synoptic/Grids...LH




000
FXUS64 KHGX 290457
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1157 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 06z TAFs, the main aviation concerns center around patchy
fog development tonight with SHRA/TSRA development possible near
the terminals from late morning into the afternoon.

VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail for the
terminals through the period with high clouds streaming across the
region, but sheltered locations or locations that saw wetting
rains today will be at risk for temporary MVFR conditions early
Wednesday morning as patchy fog develops. Have included a tempo
mention in for College Station, Huntsville, Conroe, and Angleton,
and expect any fog that develops to dissipate by mid-morning with
heating. As additional heating occurs, isolated to scattered
SHRA/TSRA will be possible mid morning along the coast and
spreading inland through the afternoon hours. Have leaned heavily
towards the TTU-WRF in timing and placement, with greatest
confidence in development near the Houston terminals and southward
where deeper moisture resides. However, latest runs of the HRRR do
show development farther north along remnant outflow boundaries
from convection earlier today and will need to monitor any of
these features for possible development farther north with heating
during the day tomorrow. Forecast soundings around Houston show a
weak inverted-V signature during the afternoon and will need to
keep an eye on stronger convection for gusty winds near the
terminals tomorrow. Anticipate all activity to dissipate with loss
of heating.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms have dissipated or moved out of SETX with only some
lingering stratiform rain or showers...leaving behind much cooler
temperatures and cloudy skies. Over the Gulf the outflow continues
to march south and should be departing the marine areas in the
next hour or so. Strong to severe thunderstorms still possible in
the far coastal waters for a few more hours.

As for the update will show the decreasing coverage of rain and
cloudy skies through most of the remainder of the evening.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  94  74  95  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              74  92  75  94  75 /  10  30  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)            76  89  80  89  81 /  40  40  30  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14




000
FXUS64 KFWD 290447 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1147 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFs/

An MCS surging through western portions of North Texas is steadily
diminishing in intensity. The complex will continue to ingest
unstable parcels early this morning but will remain well west of
our TAF sites.

Light winds will be primarily north and east overnight into the
morning hours, but speeds will remain low enough to allow
commercial airports to begin the day in south flow. As the ridge
steadily reasserts itself, the remainder of the week should be
rain-free.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms that contained very gusty
winds and localized rainfall up to 2 inches in spots earlier today
have all dissipated with the onset of nightfall. Richer moisture
will remain confined to our Central Texas and far western
counties as noted by PWAT values in excess of 1.5 inches on the
GOES satellite sounder. A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be continued across Central Texas as weak, yet subtle outflow
boundaries remain with weak perturbations passing overhead.

In addition, a severe line of storms over southwestern Oklahoma
continue moving southwest into the South Plains and southeast
Texas Panhandle late this evening. This activity is moving more
southwest than south, likely in response to ambient northeast mid-
upper level flow present around the southeast periphery of the
upper high center over the central Rockies. A slight chance of
thunderstorms was left west of a Graham to Stephenville line for
the overnight period just in case convective activity backbuilds
eastward overnight. However, the probability of this occurring is
low due to better instability remaining west of the area. Hourly
trends were updated with low temperatures mostly in the 70s
overnight with east-southeast winds 10 mph or less expected.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
across most of North and Central Texas, especially along and south
of I-20. This activity should continue through sunset, gradually
tapering off in terms of both coverage and intensity. Areas that
have been less affected by thunderstorms remain unstable with over
2000 J/KG of SBCAPE present in an uncapped environment. Very
little forcing is required to send parcels above their LFC in this
environment, and outflow boundaries from ongoing convection have
been more than sufficient for generating new thunderstorms. Strong
downburst winds remain the primary hazard with inverted-V profiles
in place. The strongest measured wind gusts with this activity
have generally been around 40 mph thus far, but an isolated
stronger to borderline severe storm cannot be ruled out through
late afternoon or early evening. Otherwise, isolated flooding is
still a concern with generally slow storm motions of less than 10
mph and efficient rainfall-producing thunderstorms with PWs of
around 2 inches across Central TX. Overnight will be quiet and
dry as activity loses fuel from daytime heating and eventually
dissipates.

The remainder of the week looks hot and dry as upper ridging
builds into the area from the west/southwest. An upper trough is
forecast to move into the eastern US, dragging a weak cold front
into the Central Plains. This front is expected to stall across
parts of KS and OK on Thursday and Friday, bringing numerous
chances for showers and storms for areas well to our north. We
will need to keep a close eye on this activity as we remain in
weak northwest flow aloft, which means there is a low but non-zero
chance that some of this activity could skirt our northern tier of
counties along the Red River, primarily on Thursday night and
Friday morning. Have opted not to include PoPs at this time but
will continue to monitor trends in the guidance. At this time,
it seems there is little in the way of support for an MCS to
either move (or propagate via new cell development) into our
area. Steering flow aloft should be weak and the better LLJ and
associated moisture transport support for a backbuiding MCS will
be displaced to our northwest.

The Independence Day weekend looks dry as well, but it should be
a couple degrees warmer than Wed-Fri. DFW and Waco seem likely to
reach 100 degrees for the first time this year at some point in
the next week, although light to calm winds are generally more
favorable for seeing the temperature rise rapidly rather than the
currently forecast 10-15 mph. Sunday and Monday look like the most
likely candidates as 850mb temperatures are forecast to be in the
22-24C range. This is certainly cause for concern with heat index
values in excess of 105 expected on both Sunday and Monday, and
possibly even on Saturday as well. With conditions near Heat
Advisory criteria and many outdoor activities expected for the
holiday weekend, heat headlines will likely be needed for this
time frame.

-Stalley



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  98  78  98  79 /   5  10  10   5   5
Waco                75  97  76  97  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
Paris               73  95  73  96  74 /   5  10  10   5   5
Denton              73  95  74  96  75 /   5  10  10   5   5
McKinney            73  95  73  95  75 /   5  10  10   5   5
Dallas              78  98  79  98  80 /   5  10   5   5   5
Terrell             73  95  74  96  76 /   5  10   5   5   5
Corsicana           74  96  75  97  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
Temple              73  95  75  96  74 /  20  10   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       72  94  71  97  73 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

25/05




000
FXUS64 KMAF 290444
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1144 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be light out of mostly the southeast throughout the
period. Generally expect VFR conditions although a few areas may
see ceilings go below VFR for a brief amount of time
overnight/early Wednesday morning. A storm complex approaching the
area may result in gusty northerly winds later overnight for MAF
and perhaps HOB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 932 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Grids have been updated for Severe Thunderstorm Watch Box # 308
until 08z Wednesday for Borden, Dawson and Scurry counties of west
Texas.

Also increased pops in those 3 counties in the watch box overnight
and increased qpf grid.

Updated products to be sent shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
clusters across our region. The first area is across the higher
terrain and is associated with the weakening upper low that has
moved into northern Mexico. These storms are producing some heavy
rain and should continue to move east into the evening hours. The
other main area of convection appears to be forming along a weak
boundary across the Permian Basin. These storms are moving very
slowly south and with daytime heating should continue to develop.
Some Hi-Res models show a thunderstorm complex forming near
Amarillo this afternoon and part of it moving south toward our
region overnight. Although this is a low probability, it is not
out of the question due to high amounts of moisture and some
instability across the region. Will leave at least some low PoPs
in tonight across the northern half of the area.

The upper ridge will return by midweek as it builds in from the
northwest, though mid level heights won`t be too high. Showers and
storms will stay mostly confined to the mountains tomorrow before
more extensive drying occurs areawide Thursday. The center of the
ridge moves southeast into central and southern Texas late this week
allowing for monsoonal moisture to spread across far West Texas and
New Mexico. Some of this moisture will spread east across the
Permian Basin this weekend so we could see an uptick in showers and
storms just in time for the July 4th holiday. Temperatures will
increase to near normal tomorrow through the end of the week. High
temperature guidance has come down slightly for this weekend, likely
due to increasing moisture. For now will stay on the conservative
side and continue to keep highs mostly in the 90`s to near 100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  90  69  90 /  20  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       68  93  69  96 /  20  10  10  10
Dryden                         73  95  74  97 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Stockton                  69  90  70  94 /  20  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 64  85  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                          65  91  66  94 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          63  84  62  87 /  20  30  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           69  93  70  95 /  20  10   0  10
Odessa                         70  92  71  94 /  20  10   0  10
Wink                           69  93  70  95 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/




000
FXUS64 KLUB 290443
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...
A strong convective thunderstorm system that moved through
Oklahoma and the northern Rolling Plains earlier in the evening
appeared to be rapidly weakening just before midnight. It seems
unlikely this system will be able to have any significant impact
as far west as KLBB or KPVW through the night, although a
weakening outflow may mix in with briefly stronger low level
east or southeast flow shortly after 1 am or so. Another
convective system far to the north will attempt a run southward
later tonight as well, with some solutions maintaining it close to
KPVW and KCDS by daybreak. Too many uncertainties to indicate
thunder within the TAF`s however. VFR otherwise expected through
Wednesday. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

AVIATION...
A few showers and even a small amount of electrified clouds in
central Hale County continue south and west along a weak
convergence zone that passed KPVW just before 2300Z and will
approach KLBB in the next hour. This offers the best opportunity
for showers or thunder to impact a TAF at least in the short term,
but recent RADAR trends still not convincing these will be able to
survive to the KLBB terminal. Will insert if impacts look more
certain. Otherwise, we expect the majority of shower and thunder -
as sparse as they already are - to dissipate around sunset. VFR
will dominate beyond with upper level high pressure aloft and
drying in the mid levels through Wednesday. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed in unstable weakly capped
atmosphere this afternoon in area of moisture convergence in two
areas...SW South Plains...and in the southern Rolling Plains. With
weak instability (500-1000 J/kg CAPE)...severe potential will be
limited...but slow moving storms...at 5-10 knots...will likely
produce a few showers with brief heavy rain and lower visibilities
and ponding of water of roadways. Not impossible to see some
small hail but unlikely with the majority of cells.

Kept pops up in the 00z-06z time frame to account for activity
persisting for at least a couple of hours beyond 00z. Some hi res
models...namely the HRRR...has been consistently showing some storms
or even a complex coming south out of Panhandle perhaps into the
central South Plains toward 06z this evening. RAP is similar but a
few hours earlier with this idea. Less convective activity on
Wednesday...presumably due to a decent inversion developing between
500-600 mb. A degree or two warmer Wednesday with highs in the lower
to mid 90s after humid morning lows in the mid 60s to near 70.

LONG TERM...
A fairly benign and warm patter will persist into next week. The
upper ridge currently northwest of the FA will slowly push
southeastward and flatten by late week. The West Texas Region will
be close to the center of the upper ridge which is reflected in the
temp forecast. Highs will be getting back into the upper
90s/approaching 100 by the end of the weekend. Being close to the
center of the upper high will allow little in the way of relief by
rainfall. The best bet going into the weekend will be a stalling
front late Thursday into Friday. As of right now chances of that
keep looking more slim by the model run. All models keep the front
stalled across the central to northern Texas Panhandle.

The next best shot for rain will come early Sunday as models prog a
weak shortwave pushing across the central Rockies and brings in a
sliver of monsoonal moisture from the southwest. This will at least
bring a slight reprieve from hotter temps as highs should be close
to the upper 80s on Independence Day, of course this is dependent
upon cloud and rain coverage. The eastern Rolling Plains would still
get into the mid/upper 90s. Beyond Monday models diverge with the
upper level pattern. The GFS build the upper high back over the Four
Corners region leaving us in northwesterly flow favoring a wet
pattern. The ECMWF keeps the high over the southern CONUS while
favoring precip in the form of various surface trofs.
Aldrich

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/05




000
FXUS64 KAMA 290442
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1142 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.Aviation...
Southeast surface winds expected to trend to south and southwest by
12z.  Mid- and high-level clouds will remain well above MVFR
threshold.  Could see thunderstorms move into KDHT late tonight and
early Wednesday morning.  Isolated thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoon and evening across northern parts of forecast
area.

Cockrell

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 609 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

Aviation...
00Z TAF Cycle

An upper ridge will prevail across the three TAF sites through 00Z
Thursday. Isolated convection could possibly affect the Dalhart TAF
site later tonight between about 10Z to 14Z Wednesday and should not
affect the Amarillo or Guymon TAF sites. VFR conditions will prevail
with mainly southeast to south winds 5 to 15 knots or less.

Schneider

Prev Discussion... /Issued 433 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

Discussion...
No big changes to the previous grids and forecast this forecast
package. An upper ridge will continue to build east in over the
Panhandles by Thursday and Friday. Isolated convection this afternoon
mainly across the northern and eastern Panhandles should dissipate by
late this evening with additional convection tracking southeast
across the northern and eastern Panhandles again by Wednesday
afternoon and evening. A frontal boundary stretching across southwest
Kansas will remain quasi-stationary through Wednesday will push
south into the forecast area during the latter half of the week and
into the weekend. Chances for convection will increase by late this
week and this weekend as the front pushes into the Panhandles. A few
storms could become strong to marginally severe with strong and gusty
winds along with locally heavy rainfall being the primary threats.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/14




000
FXUS64 KSJT 290343
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1043 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

An MCS is currently over extreme northwest Texas, moving toward
the south. This complex of storms will move across much of the Big
Country during the late evening and early morning hours. Due to
more uncertainty further south, have added a VCTS at the KABI
terminal from 07Z-09Z. Also, A wind shift to the north with gusts
around 20 knots is expected at KABI at 07Z. Otherwise, going with
VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 958 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to include mention of severe thunderstorm
watch number 308 for the northern five counties of the Big
Country through 300 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...
A complex of severe storms over southwestern Oklahoma this
evening will continue to move south and possibly into the
northern Big Country later this evening. This complex of storms
has a history of producing large hail and damaging winds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24 hours.
Going with a VCTS at the KSOA terminal until 01Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

The bulk of the scattered showers and thunderstorm activity so far
this afternoon is northeast of a Sterling City to Paint Rock to
Junction line, with new convective development and general motion
slowly to the south and southwest. This will continue through late
afternoon, with showers and storms gradually dissipating during the
evening. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and possibly small hail
will accompany the stronger storms. The airmass remains rather moist
with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches across most
of our area. Locally heavy rainfall could cause minor flooding in
poor drainage places.

Decreasing cloud cover is expected tonight. Boundary layer moisture
does not look supportive of anything more than perhaps a little
patchy low cloud development in our southern counties early
Wednesday morning. With sufficient clearing and light winds, may
have possibility of a little patchy light fog development at some
locations which receive rainfall this afternoon. Overnight lows will
be in the 70-72 degree range.

The upper level high over the Four Corners region will shift a bit
southeast over the southern Rockies on Wednesday. Rain chances for
our area look minimal on Wednesday with an increase in subsidence
and a decrease in moisture. Highs are expected to be a degree or two
warmer than what occurs today.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Little change to forecast reasoning through the extended period.
The forecast will remain dry for the most part as upper level
ridging dominates the region. The medium range models do show a
short wave moving across the central Rockies and into the Plains
late next weekend and early next week. Could see a few showers or
thunderstorms across far northern portions of the Big Country
Sunday through Independence Day but confidence regarding
rain chances remain low and will keep POPs at 20 percent at
this time. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the
period, with daytime highs in the mid and upper 90s Thursday
through Saturday and mainly upper 90s next Sunday through early
next week. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  71  94  71  95 /  20  10   0   5
San Angelo  71  93  70  95 /  20  10   0   0
Junction  71  94  70  95 /  20  10   5   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290307 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1007 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...Update to the forecast tonight to add mention of
showers and thunderstorms to the northern counties in the CWA. A
rather progressive outflow boundary is tracking almost due south
late this evening and convection continues to be maintained. As
such...have at least chance POPs going late tonight...with slight
chances after midnight. There is some uncertainty as to how far
south the outflow and subsequent convection will move and have
opted to leave any mention of precip to the ranchlands vicinity
and out of the lower valley area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 711 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Seabreeze/outflow convection has pushed well to the
west of the TAF locations and do not expect any TS activity this
evening. Light and variable winds and generally VRF conditions
will prevail through the overnight period...with brief MVFR
visbys possible at KMFE. There is an increased chance for some
-TRSA late in the period as an upper level disturbance and weak
boundary push into the northern Gulf coastal water.
However...most of the activity should remain north of the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Overall, a high-pressure
ridge axis aloft stretching back toward the Four Corners region
continues to dominate the region. Lower-level moisture yielded a
precipitable water value of 1.91" on the 12Z BRO sounding, and
convergence along the seabreeze front has provided enough forcing
to pop isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the
southeastern counties, thus far today. Showers/storms should
continue to propagate westward, reaching the McAllen metro area
around 4-5pm, and then dissipating by sunset. Areal coverage to
remain limited, though, as drier air aloft can be seen on water-
vapor imagery working into the region from the north at this time.
Tonight, clear skies and light winds will also contribute to some
patchy fog developing over the northern ranchlands and brush
country, but should mainly stay out of the mid- lower Rio Grande
Valley.

Also for later tonight into Wednesday, both NAM and GFS indicate
that an old surface shear line/mid-level vorticity lobe currently
over East Texas will sag into the area.  Moisture pooling along the
boundary will allow precipitable water to recover to near 2.0" for
the coastal areas and offshore waters. Bumped up shower chances a
bit for the morning hours Wednesday (but still isolated) and then
into low-end scattered PoP`s for areas generally east of Hwy.
281/69C in the afternoon as sea-breeze forcing kicks in.  Wednesday
night should be mainly quiet weather-wise.

Both max and min temps look to remain with a degree or two of
climatological normals in the short-term.  Heat indices on Wednesday
will reach 102-107 degrees most areas.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): A strong 500mb ridge
will build and remain over Texas and across the western Gulf of
Mexico through the forecast period. Subsidence and dry air aloft
will generally maintain rain-free conditions across Deep South
Texas. However, the combination of a mid level weakness over the
north central Gulf of Mexico and increase moisture may support
some coastal convection on Thursday. Breezy south-southeast winds
develop by the weekend as the temperature gradient strengthens.
This will also allow for dewpoints to increase the heat indices
across the area. Heat index values will approach and may exceed
110 degrees this weekend. Heat advisories may be needed for
portions of Deep South Texas this holiday weekend into early next
week.

MARINE: Tonight through Wednesday night...While isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the marine
areas for the next 36 hours, otherwise tranquil marine conditions
will continue to dominate. Weak pressure gradient across the
northwest Gulf will keep winds no higher than 10 knots, which will
keep seas 2 feet or less.

Thursday through Sunday...Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas Thursday will steadily increase by the weekend as the
pressure gradient tightens. Increasing winds and building seas are
expected to reach possible small craft advisory conditions over the
Laguna Madre and offshore Gulf waters this weekend.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

99/99




000
FXUS64 KFWD 290259 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
959 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms that contained very gusty
winds and localized rainfall up to 2 inches in spots earlier today
have all dissipated with the onset of nightfall. Richer moisture
will remain confined to our Central Texas and far western
counties as noted by PWAT values in excess of 1.5 inches on the
GOES satellite sounder. A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be continued across Central Texas as weak, yet subtle outflow
boundaries remain with weak perturbations passing overhead.

In addition, a severe line of storms over southwestern Oklahoma
continue moving southwest into the South Plains and southeast
Texas Panhandle late this evening. This activity is moving more
southwest than south, likely in response to ambient northeast mid-
upper level flow present around the southeast periphery of the
upper high center over the central Rockies. A slight chance of
thunderstorms was left west of a Graham to Stephenville line for
the overnight period just in case convective activity backbuilds
eastward overnight. However, the probability of this occurring is
low due to better instability remaining west of the area. Hourly
trends were updated with low temperatures mostly in the 70s
overnight with east-southeast winds 10 mph or less expected.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 724 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/
/00Z TAFS/

A rare summertime cold front brought showers and thunderstorms to
the region today. Although their initiation was aided by the
mechanical forcing of the frontal boundary, they have largely
been sustained by resulting outflow and the considerable
instability within the boundary layer. This means that the
activity will gradually dissipate with nightfall. But with a deep
inverted-V, the remaining cells will continue to pose a wind
threat.

Outside of convection, winds will be mainly ENE, slowly veering to
the SE late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Agree with CWSU ZFW that
speeds should be light enough for commercial airports to begin the
day in south flow.

As the ridge steadily reasserts itself, the remainder of the week
should be rain-free.

25


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
across most of North and Central Texas, especially along and south
of I-20. This activity should continue through sunset, gradually
tapering off in terms of both coverage and intensity. Areas that
have been less affected by thunderstorms remain unstable with over
2000 J/KG of SBCAPE present in an uncapped environment. Very
little forcing is required to send parcels above their LFC in this
environment, and outflow boundaries from ongoing convection have
been more than sufficient for generating new thunderstorms. Strong
downburst winds remain the primary hazard with inverted-V profiles
in place. The strongest measured wind gusts with this activity
have generally been around 40 mph thus far, but an isolated
stronger to borderline severe storm cannot be ruled out through
late afternoon or early evening. Otherwise, isolated flooding is
still a concern with generally slow storm motions of less than 10
mph and efficient rainfall-producing thunderstorms with PWs of
around 2 inches across Central TX. Overnight will be quiet and
dry as activity loses fuel from daytime heating and eventually
dissipates.

The remainder of the week looks hot and dry as upper ridging
builds into the area from the west/southwest. An upper trough is
forecast to move into the eastern US, dragging a weak cold front
into the Central Plains. This front is expected to stall across
parts of KS and OK on Thursday and Friday, bringing numerous
chances for showers and storms for areas well to our north. We
will need to keep a close eye on this activity as we remain in
weak northwest flow aloft, which means there is a low but non-zero
chance that some of this activity could skirt our northern tier of
counties along the Red River, primarily on Thursday night and
Friday morning. Have opted not to include PoPs at this time but
will continue to monitor trends in the guidance. At this time,
it seems there is little in the way of support for an MCS to
either move (or propagate via new cell development) into our
area. Steering flow aloft should be weak and the better LLJ and
associated moisture transport support for a backbuiding MCS will
be displaced to our northwest.

The Independence Day weekend looks dry as well, but it should be
a couple degrees warmer than Wed-Fri. DFW and Waco seem likely to
reach 100 degrees for the first time this year at some point in
the next week, although light to calm winds are generally more
favorable for seeing the temperature rise rapidly rather than the
currently forecast 10-15 mph. Sunday and Monday look like the most
likely candidates as 850mb temperatures are forecast to be in the
22-24C range. This is certainly cause for concern with heat index
values in excess of 105 expected on both Sunday and Monday, and
possibly even on Saturday as well. With conditions near Heat
Advisory criteria and many outdoor activities expected for the
holiday weekend, heat headlines will likely be needed for this
time frame.

-Stalley



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  98  78  98  79 /   5  10  10   5   5
Waco                75  97  76  97  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
Paris               73  95  73  96  74 /   5  10  10   5   5
Denton              73  95  74  96  75 /   5  10  10   5   5
McKinney            73  95  73  95  75 /   5  10  10   5   5
Dallas              78  98  79  98  80 /   5  10   5   5   5
Terrell             73  95  74  96  76 /   5  10   5   5   5
Corsicana           74  96  75  97  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
Temple              73  95  75  96  74 /  20  10   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       72  94  71  97  73 /  10  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

25/05




000
FXUS64 KSJT 290258
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
958 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast package to include mention of severe thunderstorm
watch number 308 for the northern five counties of the Big
Country through 300 AM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A complex of severe storms over southwestern Oklahoma this
evening will continue to move south and possibly into the
northern Big Country later this evening. This complex of storms
has a history of producing large hail and damaging winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24 hours.
Going with a VCTS at the KSOA terminal until 01Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

The bulk of the scattered showers and thunderstorm activity so far
this afternoon is northeast of a Sterling City to Paint Rock to
Junction line, with new convective development and general motion
slowly to the south and southwest. This will continue through late
afternoon, with showers and storms gradually dissipating during the
evening. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and possibly small hail
will accompany the stronger storms. The airmass remains rather moist
with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches across most
of our area. Locally heavy rainfall could cause minor flooding in
poor drainage places.

Decreasing cloud cover is expected tonight. Boundary layer moisture
does not look supportive of anything more than perhaps a little
patchy low cloud development in our southern counties early
Wednesday morning. With sufficient clearing and light winds, may
have possibility of a little patchy light fog development at some
locations which receive rainfall this afternoon. Overnight lows will
be in the 70-72 degree range.

The upper level high over the Four Corners region will shift a bit
southeast over the southern Rockies on Wednesday. Rain chances for
our area look minimal on Wednesday with an increase in subsidence
and a decrease in moisture. Highs are expected to be a degree or two
warmer than what occurs today.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Little change to forecast reasoning through the extended period.
The forecast will remain dry for the most part as upper level
ridging dominates the region. The medium range models do show a
short wave moving across the central Rockies and into the Plains
late next weekend and early next week. Could see a few showers or
thunderstorms across far northern portions of the Big Country
Sunday through Independence Day but confidence regarding
rain chances remain low and will keep POPs at 20 percent at
this time. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the
period, with daytime highs in the mid and upper 90s Thursday
through Saturday and mainly upper 90s next Sunday through early
next week. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  71  94  71  95 /  20  10   0   5
San Angelo  71  93  70  95 /  20  10   0   0
Junction  71  94  70  95 /  20  10   5   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99




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