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000
FXUS64 KAMA 041122
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
522 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. LIGHT
SNOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR TO LIFR OR VLIFR
CEILINGS THROUGH AROUND 00Z TO 02Z THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 00Z TO 02Z THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND DRIER CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR DECREASING LOW
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO
15Z TODAY...AND THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z THURSDAY TO AROUND 5
TO 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
OLD MEXICO. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WELL SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
SEEM TO BE IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...STILL LOOKS LIKE
A GOOD CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COLD MOIST
AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT TO WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ELEVATED
WARM LAYER TO ERODE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH
WOULD LIMIT THE PRODUCTION OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THIS DRY LAYER
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SO WHILE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
TODAY...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT SNOW...AND SLEET TO SNOW BY MIDDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WHILE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN ADDITION NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH CAN CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO THE POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. GIVEN
THESE ANTICIPATED TRAVEL IMPACTS...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

FORCING FOR ASCENT QUICKLY WANES THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL
END THIS EVENING WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING OUT
OF THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO THIN...HELPING TO
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE TEENS OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY WHILE A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO FURTHER BACK
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST WILL UPPER RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AS THE MEX GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SINCE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES
HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE SUPERBLEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 041122
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
522 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. LIGHT
SNOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR TO LIFR OR VLIFR
CEILINGS THROUGH AROUND 00Z TO 02Z THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 00Z TO 02Z THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND DRIER CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR DECREASING LOW
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO
15Z TODAY...AND THEN WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z THURSDAY TO AROUND 5
TO 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
OLD MEXICO. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WELL SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
SEEM TO BE IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...STILL LOOKS LIKE
A GOOD CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COLD MOIST
AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT TO WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ELEVATED
WARM LAYER TO ERODE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH
WOULD LIMIT THE PRODUCTION OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THIS DRY LAYER
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SO WHILE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
TODAY...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT SNOW...AND SLEET TO SNOW BY MIDDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WHILE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN ADDITION NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH CAN CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO THE POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. GIVEN
THESE ANTICIPATED TRAVEL IMPACTS...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

FORCING FOR ASCENT QUICKLY WANES THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL
END THIS EVENING WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING OUT
OF THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO THIN...HELPING TO
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE TEENS OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY WHILE A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO FURTHER BACK
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST WILL UPPER RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AS THE MEX GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SINCE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES
HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE SUPERBLEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11/05




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLUB 041111
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
511 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KPVW AND KLBB THRU THE DAY. MVFR WITH PERIODS
OF IFR POSSIBLE AT KCDS. LIQUID OR FREEZING PRECIP EARLY IN THE
DAY TO TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW BY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COMPLEX SCENARIO TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING FALLING
TEMPERATURES...FREEZING MARK TO BE REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA BY NOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIF EARLY THIS
MORNING OPENS UP AND EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A
VERY GOOD CHANCE AT MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ACROSS NRN MEXICO ACROSS WEST
TEXAS THAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN ZONES THIS AFTN.
AS INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WORKS ON THE
DEEP MOISTURE...WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FIELD THIS MORNING
WITH A PEAK IN LIFT EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL RANGE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO MULTIPLE PHASE
CHANGES...WITH RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENT...THEN FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS WARM MID LEVEL AIR...THEN SLEET TO SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS MID LEVELS
COOL WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BRINING THE WARM MID LEVEL
NOSE BELOW 0C. FREEZING/FROZEN ACCUMULATION TRICKY DEPENDING LARGELY
ON TIMING OF THOSE CHANGEOVERS...BUT IN GENERAL MAYBE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF GLAZE FOLLOWED BY ROUGHLY 1 INCH OF SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATION...POSSIBLY MORE IN ANY MESOSCALE
FRONTOGENTICALLY OR ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
THAT MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE PINNED DOWN LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LIKELY COMING TO
AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINTER WX ADVISORY LOOKS FINE AS PREVIOUSLY
CONFIGURED.

LONG TERM...
A QUIET...AND WARM...END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN STORE AFTER WE TELL
WINTER ON THURS THAT IT IS NO LONGER WELCOME IN THESE PARTS. WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY THURS MORNING AS DRY AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THURS AS
TEMP ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MOSTLY NEUTRAL AND THE
LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL HELP KEEP COOL AIR IN PLACE. AN ELONGATED
POS TILTED TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD BY LATE THURS NIGHT MAKING WAY FOR
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS
TEXAS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY BEFORE OPENING UP AND
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEST TEXAS
REGION WHILE PROVIDING PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LEE TROFS DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THOUGH A SLOW PROCESS...THIS WILL HELP
WARM TEMPS TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE /HIGHS IN THE MID 60S/ BY MID
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY AND...BEST OF ALL...THE SUN WILL BE OUT.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  14  34  17 /  70  30   0   0
TULIA         31  15  35  18 /  80  30   0   0
PLAINVIEW     34  16  35  18 /  80  40   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  17  35  19 /  80  40   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  18  36  19 /  80  50   0   0
DENVER CITY   43  20  35  20 /  80  40   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  19  35  20 /  80  40   0   0
CHILDRESS     33  18  37  20 /  80  30   0   0
SPUR          37  19  35  20 /  80  50   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  20  34  20 /  80  50   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

07/51/07



000
FXUS64 KLUB 041111
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
511 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KPVW AND KLBB THRU THE DAY. MVFR WITH PERIODS
OF IFR POSSIBLE AT KCDS. LIQUID OR FREEZING PRECIP EARLY IN THE
DAY TO TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW BY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COMPLEX SCENARIO TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING FALLING
TEMPERATURES...FREEZING MARK TO BE REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA BY NOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIF EARLY THIS
MORNING OPENS UP AND EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A
VERY GOOD CHANCE AT MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ACROSS NRN MEXICO ACROSS WEST
TEXAS THAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN ZONES THIS AFTN.
AS INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WORKS ON THE
DEEP MOISTURE...WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FIELD THIS MORNING
WITH A PEAK IN LIFT EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL RANGE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO MULTIPLE PHASE
CHANGES...WITH RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENT...THEN FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS WARM MID LEVEL AIR...THEN SLEET TO SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS MID LEVELS
COOL WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BRINING THE WARM MID LEVEL
NOSE BELOW 0C. FREEZING/FROZEN ACCUMULATION TRICKY DEPENDING LARGELY
ON TIMING OF THOSE CHANGEOVERS...BUT IN GENERAL MAYBE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF GLAZE FOLLOWED BY ROUGHLY 1 INCH OF SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATION...POSSIBLY MORE IN ANY MESOSCALE
FRONTOGENTICALLY OR ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
THAT MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE PINNED DOWN LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LIKELY COMING TO
AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINTER WX ADVISORY LOOKS FINE AS PREVIOUSLY
CONFIGURED.

LONG TERM...
A QUIET...AND WARM...END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN STORE AFTER WE TELL
WINTER ON THURS THAT IT IS NO LONGER WELCOME IN THESE PARTS. WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY THURS MORNING AS DRY AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THURS AS
TEMP ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MOSTLY NEUTRAL AND THE
LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL HELP KEEP COOL AIR IN PLACE. AN ELONGATED
POS TILTED TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD BY LATE THURS NIGHT MAKING WAY FOR
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS
TEXAS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY BEFORE OPENING UP AND
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEST TEXAS
REGION WHILE PROVIDING PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LEE TROFS DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THOUGH A SLOW PROCESS...THIS WILL HELP
WARM TEMPS TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE /HIGHS IN THE MID 60S/ BY MID
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY AND...BEST OF ALL...THE SUN WILL BE OUT.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  14  34  17 /  70  30   0   0
TULIA         31  15  35  18 /  80  30   0   0
PLAINVIEW     34  16  35  18 /  80  40   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  17  35  19 /  80  40   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  18  36  19 /  80  50   0   0
DENVER CITY   43  20  35  20 /  80  40   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  19  35  20 /  80  40   0   0
CHILDRESS     33  18  37  20 /  80  30   0   0
SPUR          37  19  35  20 /  80  50   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  20  34  20 /  80  50   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

07/51/07



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMAF 041105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
505 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Another arctic cold front, and the potential for wintry
precipitation behind it, are making for a difficult forecast this
morning.  Currently, the front is located from east central New
Mexico, east/southeastward across the Texas Panhandle.  Meanwhile,
an ua trough was translating eastward over northern Mexico.  Expect
showers will continue to develop ahead of the upper system, with
perhaps a few lightning strikes from southwest Texas across the
Lower Trans Pecos through the day.  Think precipitation will remain
all liquid over the forecast area through 04/18Z despite the frontal
boundary pushing into the southeast New Mexico Plains, and Permian
Basin by then.  Winds behind the front will be at least 20 mph
sustained, and with gusts around 30 mph at times, wind chills will
likely drop into the teens.  After 04/18Z, we could see a mix of
freezing rain and sleet from SE NM, eastward across the northern
Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains by early afternoon,
with this mix extending into the central Permian Basin by 05/00Z.
Although ice accumulations will be limited to one tenth of an inch
or less, icy roads could develop in these areas before nightfall.
Since the low level warm layer will not be as pronounced further
west over the rest of SE NM and over the Guadalupe Mountains, expect
there to be a mix of rain, sleet and snow.  Surface temperatures
will be slower to cool in these areas, so accumulations prior to
05/00Z will not be great.  Tonight, the atmospheric column will cool
with precipitation changing to sleet and snow this evening, then all
snow after 05/06Z.  Snowfall amounts are expected to be around an
inch, perhaps two over SE NM, with an inch or less over the Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  A mix of freezing rain and
sleet could affect the Stockton Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos this
evening, but due to the column cooling, think any icing potential
will be fairly limited, due to a changeover to sleet or snow, and
also to how light precipitation will be in these areas.  Considering
all of the above, have decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory
for the SE NM Plains, Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.
To keep the product from being too complicated, it will begin at
04/18Z and run until 05/12Z, despite the different timing for the
wintry precipitation.

Strong northeast winds will increase through Guadalupe Pass behind
the front tonight.  Since wind speeds will probably rise to 40 to 50
mph, have issued a High Wind Warning which will run from 05/00Z
until 05/15Z.  After precipitation ends late tonight, the ua trough
will shear eastward.  We will still be left with the arctic airmass
over the region, so have kept high and low temperatures a bit below
guidance considering how poorly models performed with the last arctic
airmass.  We will warm closer to normal over the weekend, then a bit
warmer early next week.  A weak ua trough is progged to head our way
via northern Mexico next week.  Have kept the forecast dry through
the extended for now due to variable solutions regarding the ua
troughs movement, and how weak it is.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions expected early this morning ahead of a strong
cold front. The front is expected to quickly push southwest to
near the Interstate 20 corridor by 15z and the Interstate 10
corridor by 17z. MVFR conditions will rapidly develop behind the
front with winds turning northeast and increasing to 15 to 25 mph
and gusty. Expecting IFR conditions in rain and fog to develop
generally 2 to 4 hours after fropa with a mixture of rain, sleet,
freezing rain and snow developing in the 20-24z Thursday TIMEFRAME.
IFR conditions are expected to continue Thursday evening in snow and
sleet. Northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusty will continue
through Thursday evening.

$$

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 48  21  36  21  /  50  40  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              52  23  35  22  /  60  60  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                57  26  39  23  /  60  30  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  70  29  38  29  /  40  70  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  23  37  25  /  50  60  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  16  34  21  /  30  30  10   0
HOBBS NM                   47  20  36  21  /  60  30  10   0
MARFA TX                   61  27  38  21  /  40  40  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  23  36  22  /  60  50  10   0
ODESSA TX                  53  22  36  24  /  60  50  10   0
WINK TX                    58  26  37  24  /  50  40  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST
     Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea
     County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon today to 6 AM CST Thursday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM MST Thursday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

12/67

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 041105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
505 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Another arctic cold front, and the potential for wintry
precipitation behind it, are making for a difficult forecast this
morning.  Currently, the front is located from east central New
Mexico, east/southeastward across the Texas Panhandle.  Meanwhile,
an ua trough was translating eastward over northern Mexico.  Expect
showers will continue to develop ahead of the upper system, with
perhaps a few lightning strikes from southwest Texas across the
Lower Trans Pecos through the day.  Think precipitation will remain
all liquid over the forecast area through 04/18Z despite the frontal
boundary pushing into the southeast New Mexico Plains, and Permian
Basin by then.  Winds behind the front will be at least 20 mph
sustained, and with gusts around 30 mph at times, wind chills will
likely drop into the teens.  After 04/18Z, we could see a mix of
freezing rain and sleet from SE NM, eastward across the northern
Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains by early afternoon,
with this mix extending into the central Permian Basin by 05/00Z.
Although ice accumulations will be limited to one tenth of an inch
or less, icy roads could develop in these areas before nightfall.
Since the low level warm layer will not be as pronounced further
west over the rest of SE NM and over the Guadalupe Mountains, expect
there to be a mix of rain, sleet and snow.  Surface temperatures
will be slower to cool in these areas, so accumulations prior to
05/00Z will not be great.  Tonight, the atmospheric column will cool
with precipitation changing to sleet and snow this evening, then all
snow after 05/06Z.  Snowfall amounts are expected to be around an
inch, perhaps two over SE NM, with an inch or less over the Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  A mix of freezing rain and
sleet could affect the Stockton Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos this
evening, but due to the column cooling, think any icing potential
will be fairly limited, due to a changeover to sleet or snow, and
also to how light precipitation will be in these areas.  Considering
all of the above, have decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory
for the SE NM Plains, Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.
To keep the product from being too complicated, it will begin at
04/18Z and run until 05/12Z, despite the different timing for the
wintry precipitation.

Strong northeast winds will increase through Guadalupe Pass behind
the front tonight.  Since wind speeds will probably rise to 40 to 50
mph, have issued a High Wind Warning which will run from 05/00Z
until 05/15Z.  After precipitation ends late tonight, the ua trough
will shear eastward.  We will still be left with the arctic airmass
over the region, so have kept high and low temperatures a bit below
guidance considering how poorly models performed with the last arctic
airmass.  We will warm closer to normal over the weekend, then a bit
warmer early next week.  A weak ua trough is progged to head our way
via northern Mexico next week.  Have kept the forecast dry through
the extended for now due to variable solutions regarding the ua
troughs movement, and how weak it is.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions expected early this morning ahead of a strong
cold front. The front is expected to quickly push southwest to
near the Interstate 20 corridor by 15z and the Interstate 10
corridor by 17z. MVFR conditions will rapidly develop behind the
front with winds turning northeast and increasing to 15 to 25 mph
and gusty. Expecting IFR conditions in rain and fog to develop
generally 2 to 4 hours after fropa with a mixture of rain, sleet,
freezing rain and snow developing in the 20-24z Thursday TIMEFRAME.
IFR conditions are expected to continue Thursday evening in snow and
sleet. Northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusty will continue
through Thursday evening.

$$

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 48  21  36  21  /  50  40  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              52  23  35  22  /  60  60  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                57  26  39  23  /  60  30  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  70  29  38  29  /  40  70  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  23  37  25  /  50  60  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  16  34  21  /  30  30  10   0
HOBBS NM                   47  20  36  21  /  60  30  10   0
MARFA TX                   61  27  38  21  /  40  40  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  23  36  22  /  60  50  10   0
ODESSA TX                  53  22  36  24  /  60  50  10   0
WINK TX                    58  26  37  24  /  50  40  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM MST
     Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea
     County.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon today to 6 AM CST Thursday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM MST Thursday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

12/67

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  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBRO 041103 CCA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT
CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
THE COAST. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/63



000
FXUS64 KBRO 041103 CCA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT
CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
IN THE 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
THE COAST. NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/63



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041053
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
453 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAY`S WARM FRONT IS NORTH OF THE CWA WITH ANY INTERIOR DENSE
FOG FORMING ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A VERY WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT OUT THERE THIS MORNING WITH AVERAGE REGIONAL TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THESE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID
WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL ULTIMATELY PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN THE
POST-FRONTAL OF WHAT WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH UP NORTH CONCERNING
THE LACK OF ANY SIG IMPACTS FROM A POSSIBLE RAIN/SLEET WINTRY MIX.
HOUSTON`S 80 F MAX TEMP TIED A RECORD MAX TEMP RECORD FROM 2008.
TODAY`S FORECAST OF 80 F WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OF ANOTHER RECORD
OF 81 F HELD SINCE 1957. LOW POPS TODAY FOR ONLY DRIZZLE/MIST OR
VERY LIGHT SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS. A 40 KT LLJ (35 KT JUST-OFF-THE-SURFACE
WINDS ON KHGX`S VAD WIND PROFILE) HAS INHIBITED INLAND FOG FORMATION.
DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH NEAR 70 F DEW POINT AIR
OVER COOL SHELF WATERS IN THE LOWER 50S HAS KEPT AREAS OF DENSE
FOG IN PLACE...THIS TYPE OF FOG WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING
WITH AFTERNOON IMPROVEMENT TO JUST AREAS OF 3 TO 5 MILE FOG. AS
WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN JUST DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING CENTRAL
TEXAS COLD FRONT...COASTAL AREA/MARITIME FOG MAY THICKEN UP AFTER
TONIGHT`S SUNSET. THINNING AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER...DUE TO MODERATE
ONSHORE MIXING WINDS AND THE REMNANTS OF THE EVER-WEAKENING LLJ...
WILL HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AGAIN WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE
70S UP NORTH TO AROUND 80 F OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
ENJOY THIS LAST DAY OF `SPRING`.

THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR FAR NW FA AROUND
SUNSET...THIS BOUNDARY TO SWING LIGHT VRB BREEZES AROUND TO N-NW
IN THE CITY AROUND 9 PM...STRONG NORTHERLIES AT THE COAST FROM
MIDNIGHT ONWARD. WESTERN AND COASTAL COUNTY WIND ADVISORIES WILL
BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR GREATER THAN 25 MPH
WINDS. THE FOLLOWING AIR MASS IS FRIGID/DRY...CURRENT CENTRAL
PLAINS TEMPERATURES OF LOW TEENS/SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS...TRANSLATES
TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. FROM TEE SHIRTS TO COATS WITHIN A
DAY AS THERE WILL BE AROUND A 35 TO 40 DEGREE 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL. THE COLUMN WILL CERTAINLY COOL TO NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT TIMING MAY BE DELAYED. THIS DELAY MAY PLACE
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION. COOLING
DOES OCCUR DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING POST-FRONTAL PERIOD OF MORE
OF AN OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT...THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTY
PROFILE HAS A NEAR 2,500 FOOT BELOW FREEZING LOWER 900 MB LAYER.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE GROUND AND SURROUNDING (ELEVATED)
ROADWAYS/BRIDGES WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM SO HAVE EXCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF -FZRA. WITH THE PRECEDENT WARM CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
A PROFILE THAT SUPPORTS A RAIN/SLEET MIX...ANY ACCUMULATIONS LEADING
TO ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS IS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. THE LATEST NWP MODEL RUNS HAVE NORTHERN COUNTY THURSDAY 12Z
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (RAW/MOS). HIGHER REZ
WRF IS SPLIT ON THE ONSET OF FREEZING SFC TEMPS WITH THE ARW/NMM
CORES A TOUCH FASTER THAN THE NCEP SOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS ARE COMING IN WITH ABOVE FREEZING 2M
TEMPERATURES DURING THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION....A
RAIN/SLEET EVENT WITH LITTLE TO MINOR IMPACTS. THERE MAY BE SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
COOLING AND LIFT FROM THE BOUNDARY ITSELF (WITHIN A GT 1.5 INCH
PWAT AIR MASS) MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
ISOLATED LIGHTNING.

ALL INLAND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAKENING
NORTHERLIES UNDER CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW THERMOMETERS TO PLUMMENT
INTO AN AREAWIDE FREEZE. THE FREEZING LINE WILL LIKELY REACH THE
COASTAL COUNTIES...AVERAGE UPPER 20S NORTH OF THE CITY TO AROUND
FREEZING ELSEWHERE/MID 30S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. MAY WANT TO MAKE
THE PREPARATIONS NOW TO PROTECT YOUR 3 P`S FOR A MINOR FREEZE
(PEOPLE PETS AND PLANTS). A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN CONUS/NORTHERN
MEXICO 5H TROUGH SET-UP THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING UP AHEAD OF THIS BROAD
TROUGH WILL INCREASE POPS (FOR MAINLY SHOWERS) TO HIGH CHANCES SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FROM DAY 7 ON WITH THE MORE
WET GFS DEVELOPING A WESTERN GULF SURFACE TROUGH...THE LESS AGGRESSIVE
EURO PLACING HIGHER QPF FURTHER SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY WARM BACK INTO THE 60S BY EARLY WEEK...MORNINGS
REMAIN IN THE CHILLY 40S. 31

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE INTERMITTENT IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES...THE THREAT OF SEA FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT (SLIGHTLY BEFORE THAT IN
THE BAYS). STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT
SHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING ONCE
TIMING IS FURTHER NAILED DOWN. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
TRANSPORT SOME WATER OUT OF THE BAYS SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER ADVISORY ON THURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL VERY
SLOWLY DIMINISH BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NORTHEAST INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL TROF DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. 47

&&

.AVIATION... THINK WE`RE GOING TO SEE IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION INTO MVFR TERRITORY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND VFR FOR
MANY AREAS DURING THE AFTN. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA WILL
APPROACH CLL AROUND 4PM, IAH 9 PM AND COAST MIDNIGHT. MUCH STRONGER
WINDS...700-1500FT CIGS AND POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME RAIN/SLEET MIX AT CLL/UTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT GROUNDS SHOULD >32 SO NO SIGNIFICANT SFC IMPACTS
EXPECTED.   47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  33  36  27  47 /  70  90  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  38  40  29  49 /  50  80  50  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  42  42  35  47 /  20  60  50  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 041053
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
453 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAY`S WARM FRONT IS NORTH OF THE CWA WITH ANY INTERIOR DENSE
FOG FORMING ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A VERY WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT OUT THERE THIS MORNING WITH AVERAGE REGIONAL TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THESE VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID
WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL ULTIMATELY PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN THE
POST-FRONTAL OF WHAT WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH UP NORTH CONCERNING
THE LACK OF ANY SIG IMPACTS FROM A POSSIBLE RAIN/SLEET WINTRY MIX.
HOUSTON`S 80 F MAX TEMP TIED A RECORD MAX TEMP RECORD FROM 2008.
TODAY`S FORECAST OF 80 F WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OF ANOTHER RECORD
OF 81 F HELD SINCE 1957. LOW POPS TODAY FOR ONLY DRIZZLE/MIST OR
VERY LIGHT SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS. A 40 KT LLJ (35 KT JUST-OFF-THE-SURFACE
WINDS ON KHGX`S VAD WIND PROFILE) HAS INHIBITED INLAND FOG FORMATION.
DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH NEAR 70 F DEW POINT AIR
OVER COOL SHELF WATERS IN THE LOWER 50S HAS KEPT AREAS OF DENSE
FOG IN PLACE...THIS TYPE OF FOG WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE MORNING
WITH AFTERNOON IMPROVEMENT TO JUST AREAS OF 3 TO 5 MILE FOG. AS
WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN JUST DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING CENTRAL
TEXAS COLD FRONT...COASTAL AREA/MARITIME FOG MAY THICKEN UP AFTER
TONIGHT`S SUNSET. THINNING AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER...DUE TO MODERATE
ONSHORE MIXING WINDS AND THE REMNANTS OF THE EVER-WEAKENING LLJ...
WILL HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AGAIN WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE
70S UP NORTH TO AROUND 80 F OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
ENJOY THIS LAST DAY OF `SPRING`.

THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR FAR NW FA AROUND
SUNSET...THIS BOUNDARY TO SWING LIGHT VRB BREEZES AROUND TO N-NW
IN THE CITY AROUND 9 PM...STRONG NORTHERLIES AT THE COAST FROM
MIDNIGHT ONWARD. WESTERN AND COASTAL COUNTY WIND ADVISORIES WILL
BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR GREATER THAN 25 MPH
WINDS. THE FOLLOWING AIR MASS IS FRIGID/DRY...CURRENT CENTRAL
PLAINS TEMPERATURES OF LOW TEENS/SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS...TRANSLATES
TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. FROM TEE SHIRTS TO COATS WITHIN A
DAY AS THERE WILL BE AROUND A 35 TO 40 DEGREE 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL. THE COLUMN WILL CERTAINLY COOL TO NEAR FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT TIMING MAY BE DELAYED. THIS DELAY MAY PLACE
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION. COOLING
DOES OCCUR DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING POST-FRONTAL PERIOD OF MORE
OF AN OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION EVENT...THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTY
PROFILE HAS A NEAR 2,500 FOOT BELOW FREEZING LOWER 900 MB LAYER.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE GROUND AND SURROUNDING (ELEVATED)
ROADWAYS/BRIDGES WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM SO HAVE EXCLUDED ANY
MENTION OF -FZRA. WITH THE PRECEDENT WARM CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
A PROFILE THAT SUPPORTS A RAIN/SLEET MIX...ANY ACCUMULATIONS LEADING
TO ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS IS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. THE LATEST NWP MODEL RUNS HAVE NORTHERN COUNTY THURSDAY 12Z
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S (RAW/MOS). HIGHER REZ
WRF IS SPLIT ON THE ONSET OF FREEZING SFC TEMPS WITH THE ARW/NMM
CORES A TOUCH FASTER THAN THE NCEP SOLUTION. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS ARE COMING IN WITH ABOVE FREEZING 2M
TEMPERATURES DURING THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION....A
RAIN/SLEET EVENT WITH LITTLE TO MINOR IMPACTS. THERE MAY BE SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
COOLING AND LIFT FROM THE BOUNDARY ITSELF (WITHIN A GT 1.5 INCH
PWAT AIR MASS) MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
ISOLATED LIGHTNING.

ALL INLAND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...WEAKENING
NORTHERLIES UNDER CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW THERMOMETERS TO PLUMMENT
INTO AN AREAWIDE FREEZE. THE FREEZING LINE WILL LIKELY REACH THE
COASTAL COUNTIES...AVERAGE UPPER 20S NORTH OF THE CITY TO AROUND
FREEZING ELSEWHERE/MID 30S AT IMMEDIATE COAST. MAY WANT TO MAKE
THE PREPARATIONS NOW TO PROTECT YOUR 3 P`S FOR A MINOR FREEZE
(PEOPLE PETS AND PLANTS). A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN CONUS/NORTHERN
MEXICO 5H TROUGH SET-UP THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING UP AHEAD OF THIS BROAD
TROUGH WILL INCREASE POPS (FOR MAINLY SHOWERS) TO HIGH CHANCES SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY. SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FROM DAY 7 ON WITH THE MORE
WET GFS DEVELOPING A WESTERN GULF SURFACE TROUGH...THE LESS AGGRESSIVE
EURO PLACING HIGHER QPF FURTHER SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY WARM BACK INTO THE 60S BY EARLY WEEK...MORNINGS
REMAIN IN THE CHILLY 40S. 31

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE INTERMITTENT IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES...THE THREAT OF SEA FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT (SLIGHTLY BEFORE THAT IN
THE BAYS). STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT
SHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING ONCE
TIMING IS FURTHER NAILED DOWN. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
TRANSPORT SOME WATER OUT OF THE BAYS SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER ADVISORY ON THURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL VERY
SLOWLY DIMINISH BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NORTHEAST INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL TROF DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. 47

&&

.AVIATION... THINK WE`RE GOING TO SEE IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION INTO MVFR TERRITORY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND VFR FOR
MANY AREAS DURING THE AFTN. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA WILL
APPROACH CLL AROUND 4PM, IAH 9 PM AND COAST MIDNIGHT. MUCH STRONGER
WINDS...700-1500FT CIGS AND POST FRONTAL PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME RAIN/SLEET MIX AT CLL/UTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT GROUNDS SHOULD >32 SO NO SIGNIFICANT SFC IMPACTS
EXPECTED.   47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  33  36  27  47 /  70  90  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  38  40  29  49 /  50  80  50  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  42  42  35  47 /  20  60  50  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31



000
FXUS64 KAMA 041045
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
445 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
OLD MEXICO. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WELL SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
SEEM TO BE IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...STILL LOOKS LIKE
A GOOD CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COLD MOIST
AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT TO WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ELEVATED
WARM LAYER TO ERODE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH
WOULD LIMIT THE PRODUCTION OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THIS DRY LAYER
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SO WHILE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
TODAY...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT SNOW...AND SLEET TO SNOW BY MIDDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WHILE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN ADDITION NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH CAN CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO THE POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. GIVEN
THESE ANTICIPATED TRAVEL IMPACTS...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

FORCING FOR ASCENT QUICKLY WANES THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL
END THIS EVENING WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING OUT
OF THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO THIN...HELPING TO
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE TEENS OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY WHILE A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO FURTHER BACK
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST WILL UPPER RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AS THE MEX GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SINCE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES
HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE SUPERBLEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                25  15  40  23  52 /  80  20   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  24   8  42  20  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              19   6  44  22  50 /  80  20   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  25  14  41  27  53 /  80  20   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              27  14  41  21  54 /  70  20   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  28  16  39  22  51 /  80  20   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               28  15  41  20  51 /  80  20   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 23  12  42  19  50 /  80  20   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  21  12  42  21  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                30  16  39  21  51 /  70  30   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                24  10  42  22  53 /  80  10   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   23  11  39  20  52 /  80  20   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                26  11  41  19  51 /  80  20   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              28  16  43  21  51 /  80  20   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 041045
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
445 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
OLD MEXICO. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WELL SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
SEEM TO BE IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...STILL LOOKS LIKE
A GOOD CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COLD MOIST
AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT TO WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ELEVATED
WARM LAYER TO ERODE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH
WOULD LIMIT THE PRODUCTION OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THIS DRY LAYER
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SO WHILE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
TODAY...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT SNOW...AND SLEET TO SNOW BY MIDDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WHILE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN ADDITION NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH CAN CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO THE POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. GIVEN
THESE ANTICIPATED TRAVEL IMPACTS...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

FORCING FOR ASCENT QUICKLY WANES THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL
END THIS EVENING WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING OUT
OF THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO THIN...HELPING TO
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE TEENS OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY WHILE A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO FURTHER BACK
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST WILL UPPER RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AS THE MEX GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SINCE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES
HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE SUPERBLEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                25  15  40  23  52 /  80  20   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  24   8  42  20  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              19   6  44  22  50 /  80  20   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  25  14  41  27  53 /  80  20   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              27  14  41  21  54 /  70  20   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  28  16  39  22  51 /  80  20   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               28  15  41  20  51 /  80  20   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 23  12  42  19  50 /  80  20   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  21  12  42  21  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                30  16  39  21  51 /  70  30   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                24  10  42  22  53 /  80  10   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   23  11  39  20  52 /  80  20   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                26  11  41  19  51 /  80  20   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              28  16  43  21  51 /  80  20   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 041045
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
445 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
OLD MEXICO. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WELL SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
SEEM TO BE IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...STILL LOOKS LIKE
A GOOD CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COLD MOIST
AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT TO WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ELEVATED
WARM LAYER TO ERODE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH
WOULD LIMIT THE PRODUCTION OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THIS DRY LAYER
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SO WHILE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
TODAY...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT SNOW...AND SLEET TO SNOW BY MIDDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WHILE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN ADDITION NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH CAN CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO THE POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. GIVEN
THESE ANTICIPATED TRAVEL IMPACTS...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

FORCING FOR ASCENT QUICKLY WANES THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL
END THIS EVENING WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING OUT
OF THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO THIN...HELPING TO
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE TEENS OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY WHILE A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO FURTHER BACK
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST WILL UPPER RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AS THE MEX GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SINCE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES
HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE SUPERBLEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                25  15  40  23  52 /  80  20   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  24   8  42  20  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              19   6  44  22  50 /  80  20   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  25  14  41  27  53 /  80  20   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              27  14  41  21  54 /  70  20   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  28  16  39  22  51 /  80  20   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               28  15  41  20  51 /  80  20   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 23  12  42  19  50 /  80  20   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  21  12  42  21  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                30  16  39  21  51 /  70  30   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                24  10  42  22  53 /  80  10   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   23  11  39  20  52 /  80  20   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                26  11  41  19  51 /  80  20   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              28  16  43  21  51 /  80  20   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 041045
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
445 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
OLD MEXICO. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WELL SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
SEEM TO BE IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...STILL LOOKS LIKE
A GOOD CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COLD MOIST
AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT TO WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ELEVATED
WARM LAYER TO ERODE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FURTHERMORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH
WOULD LIMIT THE PRODUCTION OF ICE NUCLEI IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THIS DRY LAYER
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SO WHILE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
TODAY...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE...LIGHT SNOW...AND SLEET TO SNOW BY MIDDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WHILE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN ADDITION NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH CAN CREATE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO THE POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. GIVEN
THESE ANTICIPATED TRAVEL IMPACTS...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.

FORCING FOR ASCENT QUICKLY WANES THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LIGHT SNOW WILL
END THIS EVENING WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING OUT
OF THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO THIN...HELPING TO
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE TEENS OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY WHILE A HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO FURTHER BACK
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER DESPITE THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST WILL UPPER RIDGING REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AS THE MEX GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SINCE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES
HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE SUPERBLEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                25  15  40  23  52 /  80  20   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  24   8  42  20  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              19   6  44  22  50 /  80  20   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  25  14  41  27  53 /  80  20   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              27  14  41  21  54 /  70  20   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  28  16  39  22  51 /  80  20   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               28  15  41  20  51 /  80  20   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 23  12  42  19  50 /  80  20   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  21  12  42  21  54 /  90  10   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                30  16  39  21  51 /  70  30   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                24  10  42  22  53 /  80  10   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   23  11  39  20  52 /  80  20   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                26  11  41  19  51 /  80  20   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              28  16  43  21  51 /  80  20   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/11




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 041035
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
435 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY.
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
RIO GRANDE...UNTIL 10 AM CST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG
THE RED RIVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO...WILL SURGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY INDICATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AN ABRUPT DROP IN TEMPERATURES OF 15
TO 25 DEGREES IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND SURFACE HIGH BUILD INTO OUR AREA. UPWARD MOTION FROM
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION PASSING OVERHEAD CONTINUE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHILE SPREADING
TO REMAINING AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90 BY MORNING...INCLUDING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH INCH POSSIBLE. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WARNING WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE WINDY
CONDITIONS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WELL. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE JET MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH FROM THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS CLOUDS DECREASE AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING WITH NO WINTER
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE SURFACE RIDGE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. THOUGH...A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS INDICATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  31  39  27  46 /  70  80  30  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  31  38  25  45 /  60  80  30  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  32  40  28  45 /  50  70  30  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  27  37  23  45 /  70  80  20  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  34  43  31  49 /  30  80  20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  30  38  24  46 /  70  80  30  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  34  41  28  46 /  40  70  20  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  32  39  27  45 /  60  80  30  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  33  40  28  47 /  60  60  30  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  33  40  29  46 /  40  80  30  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  34  41  30  46 /  40  70  30  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04



000
FXUS64 KEWX 041035
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
435 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY.
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
RIO GRANDE...UNTIL 10 AM CST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG
THE RED RIVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO...WILL SURGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY INDICATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AN ABRUPT DROP IN TEMPERATURES OF 15
TO 25 DEGREES IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND SURFACE HIGH BUILD INTO OUR AREA. UPWARD MOTION FROM
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION PASSING OVERHEAD CONTINUE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHILE SPREADING
TO REMAINING AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90 BY MORNING...INCLUDING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH INCH POSSIBLE. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WARNING WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE WINDY
CONDITIONS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WELL. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE JET MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH FROM THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS CLOUDS DECREASE AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING WITH NO WINTER
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE SURFACE RIDGE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. THOUGH...A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS INDICATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  31  39  27  46 /  70  80  30  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  31  38  25  45 /  60  80  30  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  32  40  28  45 /  50  70  30  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  27  37  23  45 /  70  80  20  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  34  43  31  49 /  30  80  20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  30  38  24  46 /  70  80  30  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  34  41  28  46 /  40  70  20  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  32  39  27  45 /  60  80  30  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  33  40  28  47 /  60  60  30  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  33  40  29  46 /  40  80  30  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  34  41  30  46 /  40  70  30  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04




000
FXUS64 KEWX 041035
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
435 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY.
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
RIO GRANDE...UNTIL 10 AM CST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG
THE RED RIVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO...WILL SURGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY INDICATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AN ABRUPT DROP IN TEMPERATURES OF 15
TO 25 DEGREES IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND SURFACE HIGH BUILD INTO OUR AREA. UPWARD MOTION FROM
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION PASSING OVERHEAD CONTINUE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHILE SPREADING
TO REMAINING AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90 BY MORNING...INCLUDING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH INCH POSSIBLE. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WARNING WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE WINDY
CONDITIONS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WELL. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE JET MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH FROM THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS CLOUDS DECREASE AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING WITH NO WINTER
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE SURFACE RIDGE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. THOUGH...A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS INDICATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  31  39  27  46 /  70  80  30  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  31  38  25  45 /  60  80  30  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  32  40  28  45 /  50  70  30  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  27  37  23  45 /  70  80  20  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  34  43  31  49 /  30  80  20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  30  38  24  46 /  70  80  30  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  34  41  28  46 /  40  70  20  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  32  39  27  45 /  60  80  30  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  33  40  28  47 /  60  60  30  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  33  40  29  46 /  40  80  30  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  34  41  30  46 /  40  70  30  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04



000
FXUS64 KEWX 041035
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
435 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY.
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
RIO GRANDE...UNTIL 10 AM CST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG
THE RED RIVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO...WILL SURGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY INDICATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AN ABRUPT DROP IN TEMPERATURES OF 15
TO 25 DEGREES IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND SURFACE HIGH BUILD INTO OUR AREA. UPWARD MOTION FROM
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION PASSING OVERHEAD CONTINUE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHILE SPREADING
TO REMAINING AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90 BY MORNING...INCLUDING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH INCH POSSIBLE. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WARNING WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED
FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE WINDY
CONDITIONS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WELL. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE JET MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES HOLD. LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH FROM THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS CLOUDS DECREASE AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING WITH NO WINTER
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE SURFACE RIDGE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. THOUGH...A SLOW
WARMING TREND IS INDICATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  31  39  27  46 /  70  80  30  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  31  38  25  45 /  60  80  30  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  32  40  28  45 /  50  70  30  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  27  37  23  45 /  70  80  20  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  34  43  31  49 /  30  80  20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  30  38  24  46 /  70  80  30  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  34  41  28  46 /  40  70  20  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  32  39  27  45 /  60  80  30  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  33  40  28  47 /  60  60  30  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  33  40  29  46 /  40  80  30  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  34  41  30  46 /  40  70  30  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...
WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04




000
FXUS64 KBRO 041033
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS
BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS
THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST. NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/63



000
FXUS64 KBRO 041033
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS
BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS
THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST. NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/63



000
FXUS64 KBRO 041033
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS
BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS
THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST. NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/63



000
FXUS64 KBRO 041033
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
433 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL USHER THROUGH A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WAA
WILL PREVAIL TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE AFTERNOON HIGHS ON INTO THE 80S.
WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM MUCAPE VALUES AROUND THE TIME OF THE FROPA INCREASE
INTO THE 1000 TO 1300 J/KG RANGE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THESE VALUES
THEN DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE CAA INCREASES TOWARDS 12Z THURS.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF TRW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
PCPN SHOULD THEN CONVERT OVER QUICKLY TO RW/R DURING THE DAY THURS
AS THE CAA STABILIZES THE ATMS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE DEGREE OF CAA MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS WITH THE MAV AND ECMWF COMING IN WARMER
THAN THE MET TEMP GUIDANCE. WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS THURS AS THE MET NUMBERS HAVE APPARENTLY BEEN DOING BETTER IN
HANDLING THE CAA EVENTS LATELY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING CAA AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE WIND CHILL VALUES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA POSSIBLE REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
DAY THURS. ALSO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AFTER THE FRONT COULD REACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
KENEDY...WILLACY AND CAMERON ON THURS. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
POSTING THESE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVENT SHAPES
UP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...ARCTIC SOURCE
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
30S...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES AS
BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...PERSISTENT CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS
THE RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST. NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING A 500MB TROUGH...WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD. A SLOW RECOVERY IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA FOR
THE MARINE AREAS TODAY WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL. WAA IS OCCURRING
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
WATERS. THIS WAA IS SPREADING OVER FAIRLY COOL BAY AND SURF WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S RESULTING IN AREAS OF DENSER MARINE FOG
NEAR PADRE ISLAND. WILL ISSUE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
BAY WATERS AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO 20 NM THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

EXPECT THE PGF TO STRENGTHEN DRASTICALLY JUST AFTER THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE LOWER TX MARINE WATERS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z THURS.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS PRETTY QUICKLY ON THURS. ACCORDINGLY WILL
BE UPDGRADING THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
TX MARINE AREAS FROM 06Z THURS THROUGH 00Z FRI.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. MARINE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  44  39 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  42  37 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  42  37 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  40  36 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  41  35 /  10  60  40  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  45  46  42 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

60/63


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 041029
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
329 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD AND BRING
A COLD EAST WIND OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH WESTERN SLOPES
EXPERIENCING GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR MORE. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO
4000 FEET EARLY THURSDAY BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN
EXCEPT FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. A WARMING
TREND WILL THEN TAKE PLACE STARTING FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW IS CROSSING THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET OF AIR
ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD.
MEANWHILE A VIGOROUS TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
WILL PUSH A HEALTHY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE BORDERLAND
TONIGHT AND TO THE ARIZONA BORDER AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET TODAY..BUT QUICKLY
LOWER TONIGHT AND REACH 4000 FEET OR BELOW EARLY THURSDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...SO
ANY LIGHT SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO
HUDSPETH & EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE
EL PASO/LAS CRUCES METRO SEEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ANY
STRAGGLING SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...BUT IT IS NOT LIKELY. THE
SOUTHERN SACS COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES BEFORE IT ALL ENDS THERE
MIDDAY THURSDAY. THAT IS FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERION BUT NOT
PULLING THE TRIGGER YET. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF FRANKLINS/ORGANS/HUECOS TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM DEPARTING TROUGH WILL HANG BACK AND FORM A
WEAK CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST UNDER A DEVELOPING WEST COAST UPPER
HIGH (REX BLOCK). IT WILL BE SITTING OVER WHAT REMAINS OF THE BACK
DOOR FRONT. THAT MAKES ME A LITTLE NERVOUS IN CASE ANY MOISTURE
SNEAKS UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED IN THE
DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THAT MOISTURE OUT OF
HERE UNTIL THE LOW OPENS UP AND HARMLESSLY PASSES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY EVENING.

NOW THE GOOD NEWS. AFTER WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY...STILL
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY...THE
EXPECTED WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIND. JUST BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD THE WESTERLIES INCREASE MIDWEEK
WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING. PROBABLY A RESPONSE TO MARCH
MADNESS ON THE HORIZON BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z...MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VISBY POSSIBLE. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AROUND 05/03Z ELP AND 05/06Z DMN WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO EAST AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALLOWING SNOW
LEVELS TO DROP...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH A WARM-UP EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  30  47  29  56 /  20  20   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           56  23  40  24  49 /  30  20   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              57  28  47  26  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              56  26  45  24  52 /  30  30   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              37  17  32  23  39 /  30  40   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   54  29  45  29  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             50  26  48  25  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  59  29  49  26  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               55  29  51  27  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      59  32  47  31  57 /  20  20   0   0   0
DELL CITY               57  24  43  23  49 /  20  20   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            61  29  47  28  56 /  20  20   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              53  25  42  25  50 /  20  20   0   0   0
FABENS                  58  28  44  26  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            58  29  46  27  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  29  47  28  53 /  20  20   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           58  24  48  23  54 /  20  20   0   0   0
HATCH                   59  28  49  26  56 /  20  20   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                57  31  48  30  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               57  27  46  27  52 /  20  20   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 44  15  32  21  41 /  30  40   0   0   0
MESCALERO               44  16  36  23  45 /  40  40   0   0   0
TIMBERON                45  19  37  23  44 /  30  30   0   0   0
WINSTON                 47  25  42  24  49 /  20  10   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               52  29  46  27  52 /  20  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               57  26  48  25  56 /  30  20   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            48  23  46  21  53 /  20  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  51  25  47  24  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   56  27  55  24  61 /  20   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              52  21  54  20  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 51  28  46  26  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  57  30  53  27  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 58  27  51  25  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          57  29  55  26  59 /  30  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              54  31  53  29  57 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 041029
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
329 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD AND BRING
A COLD EAST WIND OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH WESTERN SLOPES
EXPERIENCING GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR MORE. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO
4000 FEET EARLY THURSDAY BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN
EXCEPT FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. A WARMING
TREND WILL THEN TAKE PLACE STARTING FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A CLOSED LOW IS CROSSING THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET OF AIR
ALOFT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD.
MEANWHILE A VIGOROUS TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
WILL PUSH A HEALTHY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE BORDERLAND
TONIGHT AND TO THE ARIZONA BORDER AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE
SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET TODAY..BUT QUICKLY
LOWER TONIGHT AND REACH 4000 FEET OR BELOW EARLY THURSDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...SO
ANY LIGHT SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO
HUDSPETH & EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE
EL PASO/LAS CRUCES METRO SEEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ANY
STRAGGLING SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY...BUT IT IS NOT LIKELY. THE
SOUTHERN SACS COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES BEFORE IT ALL ENDS THERE
MIDDAY THURSDAY. THAT IS FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERION BUT NOT
PULLING THE TRIGGER YET. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF FRANKLINS/ORGANS/HUECOS TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM DEPARTING TROUGH WILL HANG BACK AND FORM A
WEAK CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST UNDER A DEVELOPING WEST COAST UPPER
HIGH (REX BLOCK). IT WILL BE SITTING OVER WHAT REMAINS OF THE BACK
DOOR FRONT. THAT MAKES ME A LITTLE NERVOUS IN CASE ANY MOISTURE
SNEAKS UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED IN THE
DEEP SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THAT MOISTURE OUT OF
HERE UNTIL THE LOW OPENS UP AND HARMLESSLY PASSES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY EVENING.

NOW THE GOOD NEWS. AFTER WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY...STILL
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY...THE
EXPECTED WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WIND. JUST BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD THE WESTERLIES INCREASE MIDWEEK
WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING. PROBABLY A RESPONSE TO MARCH
MADNESS ON THE HORIZON BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/12Z-05/12Z...MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VISBY POSSIBLE. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AROUND 05/03Z ELP AND 05/06Z DMN WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO EAST AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO
EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALLOWING SNOW
LEVELS TO DROP...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH A WARM-UP EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  30  47  29  56 /  20  20   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           56  23  40  24  49 /  30  20   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              57  28  47  26  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              56  26  45  24  52 /  30  30   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              37  17  32  23  39 /  30  40   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   54  29  45  29  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             50  26  48  25  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  59  29  49  26  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               55  29  51  27  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      59  32  47  31  57 /  20  20   0   0   0
DELL CITY               57  24  43  23  49 /  20  20   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            61  29  47  28  56 /  20  20   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              53  25  42  25  50 /  20  20   0   0   0
FABENS                  58  28  44  26  57 /  20  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            58  29  46  27  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  29  47  28  53 /  20  20   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           58  24  48  23  54 /  20  20   0   0   0
HATCH                   59  28  49  26  56 /  20  20   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                57  31  48  30  54 /  20   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               57  27  46  27  52 /  20  20   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 44  15  32  21  41 /  30  40   0   0   0
MESCALERO               44  16  36  23  45 /  40  40   0   0   0
TIMBERON                45  19  37  23  44 /  30  30   0   0   0
WINSTON                 47  25  42  24  49 /  20  10   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               52  29  46  27  52 /  20  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               57  26  48  25  56 /  30  20   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            48  23  46  21  53 /  20  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  51  25  47  24  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   56  27  55  24  61 /  20   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              52  21  54  20  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 51  28  46  26  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  57  30  53  27  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 58  27  51  25  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          57  29  55  26  59 /  30  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              54  31  53  29  57 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KCRP 041020
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
420 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE CWA
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH AREAS OF DENSE SEA
FG ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR SHORE WATERS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL 17Z. OTHERWISE...TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
WARMER AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NW. THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROF IS PROGD
TO MEANDER ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS PROG MODERATE CAPE AND LIFT TO DVLP ACROSS THE S AND SE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.7
INCHES. A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGD TO BLAST THROUGH
THE CWA TONIGHT REACHING THE NRN CWA AROUND 03Z-04Z AND S OF LRD
TO KINGSVILLE AROUND 05Z-07Z THEN PUSHING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. AHD OF THE CF...RAIN CHCS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHD OF THE BDRY...APPROACHING EMBEDDED UPPER
SHORT WAVE AND RRQ OF JET. HAVE GONE WITH A MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA`S
FROM 18Z-06Z THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOD RAIN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BDRY. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA IN
GENERAL TSRA FOR DAY ONE. KEPT THE LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING ON THU AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE SHIFTS E
OF THE AREA AND SOME LIMITED DRYING FILTERS INTO S TX.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAJOR ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AND GALE
WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE
UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THU.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS. LOWS WILL DIP DOWN TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
FRIDAY BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH WITH 7 FEET SEAS INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ON
FRIDAY WITH MID/UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL
WATERS. COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 50S. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE EAST SO
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  39  43  34  47  /  20  60  40  10  10
VICTORIA          76  35  41  32  49  /  30  60  30  10  10
LAREDO            83  39  45  35  48  /  10  60  30  10  10
ALICE             79  38  43  34  47  /  20  60  40  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  39  44  34  46  /  20  60  40  10  10
COTULLA           79  36  42  33  49  /  20  60  30  10  10
KINGSVILLE        81  38  44  35  47  /  20  60  40  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       71  40  44  36  46  /  20  60  40  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 041020
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
420 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE CWA
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH AREAS OF DENSE SEA
FG ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR SHORE WATERS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL 17Z. OTHERWISE...TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
WARMER AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NW. THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROF IS PROGD
TO MEANDER ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS PROG MODERATE CAPE AND LIFT TO DVLP ACROSS THE S AND SE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.7
INCHES. A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGD TO BLAST THROUGH
THE CWA TONIGHT REACHING THE NRN CWA AROUND 03Z-04Z AND S OF LRD
TO KINGSVILLE AROUND 05Z-07Z THEN PUSHING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. AHD OF THE CF...RAIN CHCS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHD OF THE BDRY...APPROACHING EMBEDDED UPPER
SHORT WAVE AND RRQ OF JET. HAVE GONE WITH A MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA`S
FROM 18Z-06Z THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOD RAIN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BDRY. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA IN
GENERAL TSRA FOR DAY ONE. KEPT THE LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING ON THU AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE SHIFTS E
OF THE AREA AND SOME LIMITED DRYING FILTERS INTO S TX.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAJOR ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AND GALE
WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE
UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THU.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS. LOWS WILL DIP DOWN TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
FRIDAY BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH WITH 7 FEET SEAS INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ON
FRIDAY WITH MID/UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL
WATERS. COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 50S. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE EAST SO
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  39  43  34  47  /  20  60  40  10  10
VICTORIA          76  35  41  32  49  /  30  60  30  10  10
LAREDO            83  39  45  35  48  /  10  60  30  10  10
ALICE             79  38  43  34  47  /  20  60  40  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  39  44  34  46  /  20  60  40  10  10
COTULLA           79  36  42  33  49  /  20  60  30  10  10
KINGSVILLE        81  38  44  35  47  /  20  60  40  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       71  40  44  36  46  /  20  60  40  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 041020
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
420 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE CWA
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH AREAS OF DENSE SEA
FG ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR SHORE WATERS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL 17Z. OTHERWISE...TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
WARMER AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NW. THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROF IS PROGD
TO MEANDER ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS PROG MODERATE CAPE AND LIFT TO DVLP ACROSS THE S AND SE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.7
INCHES. A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGD TO BLAST THROUGH
THE CWA TONIGHT REACHING THE NRN CWA AROUND 03Z-04Z AND S OF LRD
TO KINGSVILLE AROUND 05Z-07Z THEN PUSHING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. AHD OF THE CF...RAIN CHCS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHD OF THE BDRY...APPROACHING EMBEDDED UPPER
SHORT WAVE AND RRQ OF JET. HAVE GONE WITH A MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA`S
FROM 18Z-06Z THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOD RAIN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BDRY. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA IN
GENERAL TSRA FOR DAY ONE. KEPT THE LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING ON THU AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE SHIFTS E
OF THE AREA AND SOME LIMITED DRYING FILTERS INTO S TX.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAJOR ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AND GALE
WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE
UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THU.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS. LOWS WILL DIP DOWN TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
FRIDAY BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH WITH 7 FEET SEAS INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ON
FRIDAY WITH MID/UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL
WATERS. COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 50S. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE EAST SO
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  39  43  34  47  /  20  60  40  10  10
VICTORIA          76  35  41  32  49  /  30  60  30  10  10
LAREDO            83  39  45  35  48  /  10  60  30  10  10
ALICE             79  38  43  34  47  /  20  60  40  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  39  44  34  46  /  20  60  40  10  10
COTULLA           79  36  42  33  49  /  20  60  30  10  10
KINGSVILLE        81  38  44  35  47  /  20  60  40  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       71  40  44  36  46  /  20  60  40  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 041020
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
420 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE CWA
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH AREAS OF DENSE SEA
FG ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR SHORE WATERS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
LATE MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL 17Z. OTHERWISE...TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
WARMER AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NW. THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROF IS PROGD
TO MEANDER ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS PROG MODERATE CAPE AND LIFT TO DVLP ACROSS THE S AND SE CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.7
INCHES. A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGD TO BLAST THROUGH
THE CWA TONIGHT REACHING THE NRN CWA AROUND 03Z-04Z AND S OF LRD
TO KINGSVILLE AROUND 05Z-07Z THEN PUSHING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. AHD OF THE CF...RAIN CHCS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHD OF THE BDRY...APPROACHING EMBEDDED UPPER
SHORT WAVE AND RRQ OF JET. HAVE GONE WITH A MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA`S
FROM 18Z-06Z THEN TRANSITIONING TO MOD RAIN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BDRY. THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA IN
GENERAL TSRA FOR DAY ONE. KEPT THE LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING ON THU AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE SHIFTS E
OF THE AREA AND SOME LIMITED DRYING FILTERS INTO S TX.

WINDS WILL BE THE MAJOR ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AND GALE
WARNING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE
UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THU.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS. LOWS WILL DIP DOWN TO
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
FRIDAY BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH WITH 7 FEET SEAS INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ON
FRIDAY WITH MID/UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL
WATERS. COOLER TEMPS WILL ALSO BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 50S. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH TO THE EAST SO
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  39  43  34  47  /  20  60  40  10  10
VICTORIA          76  35  41  32  49  /  30  60  30  10  10
LAREDO            83  39  45  35  48  /  10  60  30  10  10
ALICE             79  38  43  34  47  /  20  60  40  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  39  44  34  46  /  20  60  40  10  10
COTULLA           79  36  42  33  49  /  20  60  30  10  10
KINGSVILLE        81  38  44  35  47  /  20  60  40  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       71  40  44  36  46  /  20  60  40  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 041012
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
412 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

The arctic cold front continues to barrel south through the
Plains this morning. The leading edge has moved into western north
TX from Wichita Falls, to Jayton, to near Muleshoe. As this front
moves south through the morning hours, we`ll see winds shift to
the NNE and increase to around 20 mph, gusting over 30 mph at
times. Temperatures will take a nosedive in the wake of this
front, dropping into the 30s as it passes. That means max
temperatures today will be during the A.M. hours for most of West
Central TX, excluding the I-10 corridor where the cold front will
not arrive until early/mid afternoon. Temperatures overnight will
continue to drop, eventually settling in the low/mid 20s by
Thursday morning. There is significant bust potential in high
temperatures today depending on exactly when the cold front
arrives, but its safe to say that the day will start out much
nicer than it will end.

Forecasting precipitation type/amounts will certainly add a few
gray hairs, as is usually the case with Texas winter weather.
Currently, a band of rain showers is moving NNE across the CWA and
will be undercut by the cold front this morning. With the surface
freezing line dropping south into the Big Country, we expect a
changeover to freezing rain/drizzle by midday. This will likely
create travel problems during the afternoon along/north of I-20,
especially on bridges and overpasses. Thus, the Winter Weather
Advisory has been moved up to start at noon. Farther south, general
rain showers, and even a few thunderstorms, will be possible. As
the cold air deepens in the afternoon, sleet is expect to develop.
Most of the Concho Valley, Heartland, and I-10 counties are
expected to remain at or above freezing through this afternoon.
While we could see a few sleet showers, we anticipate primarily
rain through 4 PM.

Subfreezing temperatures are anticipated areawide by early/mid
evening. Snow, possibly mixed with sleet, will be possible in the
Big Country as the saturated column cools sufficiently. However,
the cold air will likely not be deep enough to support more than a
freezing rain/sleet mix south of an Ozona to Brady line. The
duration of the precipitation is not expected to be all that long,
but the models are cueing in on some convective signatures,
especially in the hi-res windows. This could result in localized
sleet accumulations across the southern half of the CWA. The
Concho Valley and Heartland counties north of a Mertzon to San
Saba line were added to the Winter Weather Advisory beginning at 4
PM. Confidence in winter weather impacts remains lowest across the
I-10 corridor. A summary of winter weather accumulations for the
next 24 hours follows.

Ice: Expect ice accumulations up to 1/10" across the Big Country
and northern portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland. Lighter
amounts expected farther south.

Sleet: General sleet accumulations around 1/4" or less. Localized
higher amounts are possible in areas of stronger convection.

Snow: Snow amounts of 1" are possible in the Big Country, with
only a dusting expected across the Concho Valley and Heartland.

Johnson

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

Models have been consistent with moving most of the precipitation
out of the area by early Thursday morning, so have only kept a
small area of sleet/snow mix in our extreme southeastern counties
for Thursday morning between 12Z and 18Z. We are still looking at
cold temperatures Thursday as the surface high and cold air mass
will remain in place over the area. We should start to see some
sunshine by Thursday, but with the cold dome in place, it will be
hard to get strong enough mixing to the warmer air aloft, keeping
temperatures mainly in the 30s. As skies clear, and winds remain
light Thursday night, very efficient radiational cooling will
occur. We have dropped lows to near 20 degrees for most areas.
Minimum temperatures in the teens are not out of the question for
some of our low lying areas and valleys.

Friday, we will see a return to southerly flow through the lower
levels, helping to warm temperatures into the upper 40s to near 50
degrees. Some locations could warm into the 50s. Southerly flow
will continue into the weekend, resulting in increasing moisture
as well, bringing clouds into the area Saturday, which may slow
the warming trend some.

Later this week, what starts out as a weak vorticity maximum off
the southern coast of California strengthens into another closed
low over the northern Gulf of California. This low will eventually
get ejected to the east over Texas over the weekend as an open
wave. The GFS moves this trough faster to the east, and keeps
precip south and east of our forecast area whereas the slower EC
actually produces some precipitation in our southern counties
Saturday night into Sunday. Given that EC and GFS both show some
sort of trough moving across the area, will show low end slight
chance for PoPs along our southern tier of counties Saturday night
into Sunday.

Early next week, models diverge in their solutions, but the general
consensus is to keep most of the area dry through Tuesday. Tuesday
and Tuesday night, the GFS brings an upper level trough through that
could result in some showers for our southeastern counties.
Temperatures should warm into the 60s to around 70 degrees for highs
by the start of the work week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  22  35  20  45 /  80  80   5   5   5
San Angelo  51  25  38  20  48 /  60  80   5   5   5
Junction  60  27  37  20  48 /  60  90  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon today to 6 AM CST Thursday FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...
Nolan...Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Coke...Coleman...
Concho...Irion...McCulloch...Runnels...San Saba...Sterling...Tom
Green.

&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 040959
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
359 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA
MOVING EAST. THE 3 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WICHITA FALLS TO CLOVIS NEW MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...EXTENDING NEAR A PARIS TO CLEBURNE TO
COMANCHE LINE AROUND DAYBREAK AND MOVE THROUGH PALESTINE TO
KILLEEN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALL WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A BIGGER DROP
A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER. THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD BE NEAR A
GAINESVILLE TO GRAHAM LINE BY MIDDAY AND EXTEND FROM NEAR PARIS TO
CLEBURNE AND BROWNWOOD BY SUNSET. THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD BE
THROUGH ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL...THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET THIS AFTERNOON STARTING IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND SPREADING TOWARD A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE BY
SUNSET. THERE WILL STRONG BROADSCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
CONVECTION TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THUS WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO
CANTON LINE. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE WARNING AREA MAY ALSO REACH CRITERIA. HAVE LEFT THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
IS... INCLUDING THE WACO TEMPLE-KILLEEN AND PALESTINE AREAS WHERE
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT
SLEET AND SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IT WILL BE DRY BUT COLD THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN START TO MODERATE FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  26  37  24  45 / 100 100  10   5   5
WACO, TX              61  30  35  24  46 / 100 100  20   5  10
PARIS, TX             50  25  38  22  43 / 100  90  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            48  24  37  22  44 / 100 100  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          47  25  38  22  42 / 100 100  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            48  26  37  25  45 / 100 100  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           52  28  37  22  44 / 100 100  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  31  35  25  43 / 100 100  20   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            64  30  37  24  44 / 100 100  30   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  24  38  22  46 / 100 100  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091-092-100>102-115.


&&

$$

25/58



000
FXUS64 KFWD 040959
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
359 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA
MOVING EAST. THE 3 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WICHITA FALLS TO CLOVIS NEW MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...EXTENDING NEAR A PARIS TO CLEBURNE TO
COMANCHE LINE AROUND DAYBREAK AND MOVE THROUGH PALESTINE TO
KILLEEN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALL WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A BIGGER DROP
A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER. THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD BE NEAR A
GAINESVILLE TO GRAHAM LINE BY MIDDAY AND EXTEND FROM NEAR PARIS TO
CLEBURNE AND BROWNWOOD BY SUNSET. THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD BE
THROUGH ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL...THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET THIS AFTERNOON STARTING IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND SPREADING TOWARD A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE BY
SUNSET. THERE WILL STRONG BROADSCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
CONVECTION TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THUS WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO
CANTON LINE. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE WARNING AREA MAY ALSO REACH CRITERIA. HAVE LEFT THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
IS... INCLUDING THE WACO TEMPLE-KILLEEN AND PALESTINE AREAS WHERE
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT
SLEET AND SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IT WILL BE DRY BUT COLD THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN START TO MODERATE FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  26  37  24  45 / 100 100  10   5   5
WACO, TX              61  30  35  24  46 / 100 100  20   5  10
PARIS, TX             50  25  38  22  43 / 100  90  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            48  24  37  22  44 / 100 100  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          47  25  38  22  42 / 100 100  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            48  26  37  25  45 / 100 100  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           52  28  37  22  44 / 100 100  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  31  35  25  43 / 100 100  20   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            64  30  37  24  44 / 100 100  30   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  24  38  22  46 / 100 100  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091-092-100>102-115.


&&

$$

25/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 040959
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
359 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA
MOVING EAST. THE 3 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR FORT SMITH ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WICHITA FALLS TO CLOVIS NEW MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...EXTENDING NEAR A PARIS TO CLEBURNE TO
COMANCHE LINE AROUND DAYBREAK AND MOVE THROUGH PALESTINE TO
KILLEEN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALL WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A BIGGER DROP
A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER. THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD BE NEAR A
GAINESVILLE TO GRAHAM LINE BY MIDDAY AND EXTEND FROM NEAR PARIS TO
CLEBURNE AND BROWNWOOD BY SUNSET. THE FREEZING LINE SHOULD BE
THROUGH ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

AS TEMPERATURES COOL...THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET THIS AFTERNOON STARTING IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND SPREADING TOWARD A PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE BY
SUNSET. THERE WILL STRONG BROADSCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
CONVECTION TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THUS WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO
CANTON LINE. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE WARNING AREA MAY ALSO REACH CRITERIA. HAVE LEFT THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
IS... INCLUDING THE WACO TEMPLE-KILLEEN AND PALESTINE AREAS WHERE
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT
SLEET AND SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IT WILL BE DRY BUT COLD THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN START TO MODERATE FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  26  37  24  45 / 100 100  10   5   5
WACO, TX              61  30  35  24  46 / 100 100  20   5  10
PARIS, TX             50  25  38  22  43 / 100  90  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            48  24  37  22  44 / 100 100  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          47  25  38  22  42 / 100 100  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            48  26  37  25  45 / 100 100  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           52  28  37  22  44 / 100 100  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  31  35  25  43 / 100 100  20   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            64  30  37  24  44 / 100 100  30   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  24  38  22  46 / 100 100  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091-092-100>102-115.


&&

$$

25/58




000
FXUS64 KLUB 040948
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COMPLEX SCENARIO TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING FALLING
TEMPERATURES...FREEZING MARK TO BE REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA BY NOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIF EARLY THIS
MORNING OPENS UP AND EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A
VERY GOOD CHANCE AT MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ACROSS NRN MEXICO ACROSS WEST
TEXAS THAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN ZONES THIS AFTN.
AS INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WORKS ON THE
DEEP MOISTURE...WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FIELD THIS MORNING
WITH A PEAK IN LIFT EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL RANGE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO MULTIPLE PHASE
CHANGES...WITH RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENT...THEN FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS WARM MID LEVEL AIR...THEN SLEET TO SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS MID LEVELS
COOL WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BRINING THE WARM MID LEVEL
NOSE BELOW 0C. FREEZING/FROZEN ACCUMULATION TRICKY DEPENDING LARGELY
ON TIMING OF THOSE CHANGEOVERS...BUT IN GENERAL MAYBE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF GLAZE FOLLOWED BY ROUGHLY 1 INCH OF SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATION...POSSIBLY MORE IN ANY MESOSCALE
FRONTOGENTICALLY OR ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
THAT MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE PINNED DOWN LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LIKELY COMING TO
AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINTER WX ADVISORY LOOKS FINE AS PREVIOUSLY
CONFIGURED.

.LONG TERM...
A QUIET...AND WARM...END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN STORE AFTER WE TELL
WINTER ON THURS THAT IT IS NO LONGER WELCOME IN THESE PARTS. WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY THURS MORNING AS DRY AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THURS AS
TEMP ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MOSTLY NEUTRAL AND THE
LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL HELP KEEP COOL AIR IN PLACE. AN ELONGATED
POS TILTED TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD BY LATE THURS NIGHT MAKING WAY FOR
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS
TEXAS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY BEFORE OPENING UP AND
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEST TEXAS
REGION WHILE PROVIDING PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LEE TROFS DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THOUGH A SLOW PROCESS...THIS WILL HELP
WARM TEMPS TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE /HIGHS IN THE MID 60S/ BY MID
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY AND...BEST OF ALL...THE SUN WILL BE OUT.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  14  34  17 /  70  30   0   0
TULIA         31  15  35  18 /  80  30   0   0
PLAINVIEW     34  16  35  18 /  80  40   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  17  35  19 /  80  40   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  18  36  19 /  80  50   0   0
DENVER CITY   43  20  35  20 /  80  40   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  19  35  20 /  80  40   0   0
CHILDRESS     33  18  37  20 /  80  30   0   0
SPUR          37  19  35  20 /  80  50   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  20  34  20 /  80  50   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

07/51



000
FXUS64 KLUB 040948
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COMPLEX SCENARIO TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING FALLING
TEMPERATURES...FREEZING MARK TO BE REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA BY NOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIF EARLY THIS
MORNING OPENS UP AND EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A
VERY GOOD CHANCE AT MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ACROSS NRN MEXICO ACROSS WEST
TEXAS THAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN ZONES THIS AFTN.
AS INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WORKS ON THE
DEEP MOISTURE...WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FIELD THIS MORNING
WITH A PEAK IN LIFT EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL RANGE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO MULTIPLE PHASE
CHANGES...WITH RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENT...THEN FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS WARM MID LEVEL AIR...THEN SLEET TO SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS MID LEVELS
COOL WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BRINING THE WARM MID LEVEL
NOSE BELOW 0C. FREEZING/FROZEN ACCUMULATION TRICKY DEPENDING LARGELY
ON TIMING OF THOSE CHANGEOVERS...BUT IN GENERAL MAYBE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF GLAZE FOLLOWED BY ROUGHLY 1 INCH OF SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATION...POSSIBLY MORE IN ANY MESOSCALE
FRONTOGENTICALLY OR ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
THAT MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE PINNED DOWN LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LIKELY COMING TO
AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINTER WX ADVISORY LOOKS FINE AS PREVIOUSLY
CONFIGURED.

.LONG TERM...
A QUIET...AND WARM...END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN STORE AFTER WE TELL
WINTER ON THURS THAT IT IS NO LONGER WELCOME IN THESE PARTS. WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY THURS MORNING AS DRY AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THURS AS
TEMP ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MOSTLY NEUTRAL AND THE
LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL HELP KEEP COOL AIR IN PLACE. AN ELONGATED
POS TILTED TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD BY LATE THURS NIGHT MAKING WAY FOR
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS
TEXAS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY BEFORE OPENING UP AND
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEST TEXAS
REGION WHILE PROVIDING PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LEE TROFS DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THOUGH A SLOW PROCESS...THIS WILL HELP
WARM TEMPS TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE /HIGHS IN THE MID 60S/ BY MID
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY AND...BEST OF ALL...THE SUN WILL BE OUT.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  14  34  17 /  70  30   0   0
TULIA         31  15  35  18 /  80  30   0   0
PLAINVIEW     34  16  35  18 /  80  40   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  17  35  19 /  80  40   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  18  36  19 /  80  50   0   0
DENVER CITY   43  20  35  20 /  80  40   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  19  35  20 /  80  40   0   0
CHILDRESS     33  18  37  20 /  80  30   0   0
SPUR          37  19  35  20 /  80  50   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  20  34  20 /  80  50   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

07/51




000
FXUS64 KLUB 040948
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COMPLEX SCENARIO TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING FALLING
TEMPERATURES...FREEZING MARK TO BE REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA BY NOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIF EARLY THIS
MORNING OPENS UP AND EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A
VERY GOOD CHANCE AT MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ACROSS NRN MEXICO ACROSS WEST
TEXAS THAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN ZONES THIS AFTN.
AS INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WORKS ON THE
DEEP MOISTURE...WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FIELD THIS MORNING
WITH A PEAK IN LIFT EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL RANGE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO MULTIPLE PHASE
CHANGES...WITH RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENT...THEN FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS WARM MID LEVEL AIR...THEN SLEET TO SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS MID LEVELS
COOL WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BRINING THE WARM MID LEVEL
NOSE BELOW 0C. FREEZING/FROZEN ACCUMULATION TRICKY DEPENDING LARGELY
ON TIMING OF THOSE CHANGEOVERS...BUT IN GENERAL MAYBE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF GLAZE FOLLOWED BY ROUGHLY 1 INCH OF SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATION...POSSIBLY MORE IN ANY MESOSCALE
FRONTOGENTICALLY OR ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
THAT MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE PINNED DOWN LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LIKELY COMING TO
AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINTER WX ADVISORY LOOKS FINE AS PREVIOUSLY
CONFIGURED.

.LONG TERM...
A QUIET...AND WARM...END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN STORE AFTER WE TELL
WINTER ON THURS THAT IT IS NO LONGER WELCOME IN THESE PARTS. WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY THURS MORNING AS DRY AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THURS AS
TEMP ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MOSTLY NEUTRAL AND THE
LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL HELP KEEP COOL AIR IN PLACE. AN ELONGATED
POS TILTED TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD BY LATE THURS NIGHT MAKING WAY FOR
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS
TEXAS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY BEFORE OPENING UP AND
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEST TEXAS
REGION WHILE PROVIDING PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LEE TROFS DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THOUGH A SLOW PROCESS...THIS WILL HELP
WARM TEMPS TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE /HIGHS IN THE MID 60S/ BY MID
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY AND...BEST OF ALL...THE SUN WILL BE OUT.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  14  34  17 /  70  30   0   0
TULIA         31  15  35  18 /  80  30   0   0
PLAINVIEW     34  16  35  18 /  80  40   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  17  35  19 /  80  40   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  18  36  19 /  80  50   0   0
DENVER CITY   43  20  35  20 /  80  40   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  19  35  20 /  80  40   0   0
CHILDRESS     33  18  37  20 /  80  30   0   0
SPUR          37  19  35  20 /  80  50   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  20  34  20 /  80  50   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

07/51



000
FXUS64 KLUB 040948
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COMPLEX SCENARIO TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING FALLING
TEMPERATURES...FREEZING MARK TO BE REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA BY NOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIF EARLY THIS
MORNING OPENS UP AND EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A
VERY GOOD CHANCE AT MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ACROSS NRN MEXICO ACROSS WEST
TEXAS THAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN ZONES THIS AFTN.
AS INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WORKS ON THE
DEEP MOISTURE...WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FIELD THIS MORNING
WITH A PEAK IN LIFT EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL RANGE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO MULTIPLE PHASE
CHANGES...WITH RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENT...THEN FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS WARM MID LEVEL AIR...THEN SLEET TO SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS MID LEVELS
COOL WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BRINING THE WARM MID LEVEL
NOSE BELOW 0C. FREEZING/FROZEN ACCUMULATION TRICKY DEPENDING LARGELY
ON TIMING OF THOSE CHANGEOVERS...BUT IN GENERAL MAYBE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF GLAZE FOLLOWED BY ROUGHLY 1 INCH OF SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATION...POSSIBLY MORE IN ANY MESOSCALE
FRONTOGENTICALLY OR ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
THAT MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE PINNED DOWN LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LIKELY COMING TO
AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINTER WX ADVISORY LOOKS FINE AS PREVIOUSLY
CONFIGURED.

.LONG TERM...
A QUIET...AND WARM...END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN STORE AFTER WE TELL
WINTER ON THURS THAT IT IS NO LONGER WELCOME IN THESE PARTS. WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY THURS MORNING AS DRY AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THURS AS
TEMP ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MOSTLY NEUTRAL AND THE
LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL HELP KEEP COOL AIR IN PLACE. AN ELONGATED
POS TILTED TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD BY LATE THURS NIGHT MAKING WAY FOR
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS
TEXAS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY BEFORE OPENING UP AND
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEST TEXAS
REGION WHILE PROVIDING PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LEE TROFS DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THOUGH A SLOW PROCESS...THIS WILL HELP
WARM TEMPS TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE /HIGHS IN THE MID 60S/ BY MID
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY AND...BEST OF ALL...THE SUN WILL BE OUT.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  14  34  17 /  70  30   0   0
TULIA         31  15  35  18 /  80  30   0   0
PLAINVIEW     34  16  35  18 /  80  40   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  17  35  19 /  80  40   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  18  36  19 /  80  50   0   0
DENVER CITY   43  20  35  20 /  80  40   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  19  35  20 /  80  40   0   0
CHILDRESS     33  18  37  20 /  80  30   0   0
SPUR          37  19  35  20 /  80  50   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  20  34  20 /  80  50   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

07/51



000
FXUS64 KLUB 040948
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COMPLEX SCENARIO TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING FALLING
TEMPERATURES...FREEZING MARK TO BE REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA BY NOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIF EARLY THIS
MORNING OPENS UP AND EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A
VERY GOOD CHANCE AT MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ACROSS NRN MEXICO ACROSS WEST
TEXAS THAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN ZONES THIS AFTN.
AS INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WORKS ON THE
DEEP MOISTURE...WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FIELD THIS MORNING
WITH A PEAK IN LIFT EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL RANGE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO MULTIPLE PHASE
CHANGES...WITH RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENT...THEN FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS WARM MID LEVEL AIR...THEN SLEET TO SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS MID LEVELS
COOL WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BRINING THE WARM MID LEVEL
NOSE BELOW 0C. FREEZING/FROZEN ACCUMULATION TRICKY DEPENDING LARGELY
ON TIMING OF THOSE CHANGEOVERS...BUT IN GENERAL MAYBE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF GLAZE FOLLOWED BY ROUGHLY 1 INCH OF SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATION...POSSIBLY MORE IN ANY MESOSCALE
FRONTOGENTICALLY OR ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
THAT MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE PINNED DOWN LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LIKELY COMING TO
AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINTER WX ADVISORY LOOKS FINE AS PREVIOUSLY
CONFIGURED.

.LONG TERM...
A QUIET...AND WARM...END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN STORE AFTER WE TELL
WINTER ON THURS THAT IT IS NO LONGER WELCOME IN THESE PARTS. WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY THURS MORNING AS DRY AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THURS AS
TEMP ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MOSTLY NEUTRAL AND THE
LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL HELP KEEP COOL AIR IN PLACE. AN ELONGATED
POS TILTED TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD BY LATE THURS NIGHT MAKING WAY FOR
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS
TEXAS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY BEFORE OPENING UP AND
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEST TEXAS
REGION WHILE PROVIDING PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LEE TROFS DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THOUGH A SLOW PROCESS...THIS WILL HELP
WARM TEMPS TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE /HIGHS IN THE MID 60S/ BY MID
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY AND...BEST OF ALL...THE SUN WILL BE OUT.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  14  34  17 /  70  30   0   0
TULIA         31  15  35  18 /  80  30   0   0
PLAINVIEW     34  16  35  18 /  80  40   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  17  35  19 /  80  40   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  18  36  19 /  80  50   0   0
DENVER CITY   43  20  35  20 /  80  40   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  19  35  20 /  80  40   0   0
CHILDRESS     33  18  37  20 /  80  30   0   0
SPUR          37  19  35  20 /  80  50   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  20  34  20 /  80  50   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

07/51



000
FXUS64 KLUB 040948
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COMPLEX SCENARIO TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING FALLING
TEMPERATURES...FREEZING MARK TO BE REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST
AREA BY NOON...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIF EARLY THIS
MORNING OPENS UP AND EJECTS ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A
VERY GOOD CHANCE AT MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP ACROSS NRN MEXICO ACROSS WEST
TEXAS THAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE WRN ZONES THIS AFTN.
AS INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WORKS ON THE
DEEP MOISTURE...WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FIELD THIS MORNING
WITH A PEAK IN LIFT EXPECTED THIS AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL RANGE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO MULTIPLE PHASE
CHANGES...WITH RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENT...THEN FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT UNDERCUTS WARM MID LEVEL AIR...THEN SLEET TO SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS MID LEVELS
COOL WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BRINING THE WARM MID LEVEL
NOSE BELOW 0C. FREEZING/FROZEN ACCUMULATION TRICKY DEPENDING LARGELY
ON TIMING OF THOSE CHANGEOVERS...BUT IN GENERAL MAYBE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF GLAZE FOLLOWED BY ROUGHLY 1 INCH OF SLEET
AND SNOW ACCUMULATION...POSSIBLY MORE IN ANY MESOSCALE
FRONTOGENTICALLY OR ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP
THAT MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE PINNED DOWN LATER THIS MORNING. PRECIP
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING...LIKELY COMING TO
AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINTER WX ADVISORY LOOKS FINE AS PREVIOUSLY
CONFIGURED.

.LONG TERM...
A QUIET...AND WARM...END OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN STORE AFTER WE TELL
WINTER ON THURS THAT IT IS NO LONGER WELCOME IN THESE PARTS. WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA BY THURS MORNING AS DRY AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THURS AS
TEMP ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MOSTLY NEUTRAL AND THE
LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL HELP KEEP COOL AIR IN PLACE. AN ELONGATED
POS TILTED TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD BUT WILL DO LITTLE TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD BY LATE THURS NIGHT MAKING WAY FOR
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS
TEXAS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY BEFORE OPENING UP AND
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL BE DRY FOR THE WEST TEXAS
REGION WHILE PROVIDING PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND FOR THE TEXAS GULF
COAST. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF LEE TROFS DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THOUGH A SLOW PROCESS...THIS WILL HELP
WARM TEMPS TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE /HIGHS IN THE MID 60S/ BY MID
NEXT WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND... TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY
AND LOW 60S ON SUNDAY AND...BEST OF ALL...THE SUN WILL BE OUT.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  14  34  17 /  70  30   0   0
TULIA         31  15  35  18 /  80  30   0   0
PLAINVIEW     34  16  35  18 /  80  40   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  17  35  19 /  80  40   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  18  36  19 /  80  50   0   0
DENVER CITY   43  20  35  20 /  80  40   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  19  35  20 /  80  40   0   0
CHILDRESS     33  18  37  20 /  80  30   0   0
SPUR          37  19  35  20 /  80  50   0   0
ASPERMONT     42  20  34  20 /  80  50   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

07/51



000
FXUS64 KFWD 040623 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AT JACKSBORO AND ATHENS...HAVE
EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL 6 AM. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXPIRATION WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE MADE FOR THE MAIN PACKAGE AS THE FOG MAY BE A PROBLEM PAST
6 AM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/
CIGS/VIS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND TONIGHT BUT GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 1SM
AND CIGS AROUND 500FT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS
BUT THESE SHOULD BECOME FEWER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT RAIN WILL PRIMARILY DOMINATE.

AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT THE
MAJOR METROPLEX AIRPORTS BY 6PM OR SO ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INITIAL FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LITTLE TO NO INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION. AS THE EVENING GOES
ON...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION
OVER TO SLEET. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET WILL SET UP VERY NEAR THE METROPLEX DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE BAND SLIDES TO THE EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BAND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...AREAS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT WACO WITH IFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY PREVAILING. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

DUNN


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...

CORRECTED THURSDAY TO WEDNESDAY

IN REFERENCE TO THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE HAVE LOOKED AT THE
INCOMING 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF AND ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND WORK
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE SW
TO NE ORIENTED BAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
WHICH HINGE ON THE TEMPERATURES...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
FOR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND WE SEE NO NEW DATA THAT SUGGESTS
WE NEED TO BUMP THE TIMING UP. ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR DOES OFTEN
GET HERE FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...OUR TIMING IS AHEAD OF
THE USUALLY RELIABLE RAP/NAM FORECASTS.

INDICATIONS FROM THE 0Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEING AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY SLEET WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STRONG LIFT WILL KEEP
COOLING THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND RESULT
IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WE ARE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WHERE 1-2 INCHES MAY FALL. THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY
FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO SAY JUST HOW
MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SPENT AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WOULD BE
ACCUMULATING SLEET OR SNOW. THE 21Z SREF RAISES CONCERNS THAT MORE
THAN 1 INCH OF SLEET WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND...AND THE 0Z NAM
AND HI-RES WRF MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR OVER A HALF INCH OF SLEET. A TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING THAT MAY DROP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOW WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALSO WORTH NOTING ARE THE WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL WORK TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE IN REGIONS WHERE A CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE SNOW OCCURS.

FOR THE FORECAST...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP POPS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AREAWIDE. THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE OR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE-OVER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE GOOD
SETUP...WE HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ALONG AND NW OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS. WE ARE NOW EXPECTING 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OF SLEET AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF A EASTLAND TO
DENTON TO BONHAM LINE. FOR THE LINE FROM COMANCHE TO THE METROPLEX
TO PARIS...WE ARE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND AN INCH OF SNOW.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP THE
ZONE FROM WACO TO ATHENS UP TO A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET.

WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF UPGRADING A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND IF THE 0Z GFS HAD NOT COME
IN WITH A FARTHER SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS IN
COMPARISON TO THE OTHER MODELS...WE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE HAD THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE NOW. WE WILL DEFFER ANY DECISIONS TO THE
NEXT SHIFT WHO WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE ECMWF...ECMWF
ENSEMBLE...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND 3Z SREF. WARNING OR NOT...THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

TR.92

&&



.SHORT TERM...

TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  26  39  24  47 / 100  90  10   5   5
WACO, TX              61  30  39  24  47 /  90  90  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             50  25  39  23  45 / 100  90  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            48  24  39  23  46 / 100  90  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          47  25  39  24  46 / 100  90  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            48  26  40  25  47 / 100  90  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           52  27  40  23  46 / 100  90  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  31  39  25  47 / 100  90  20   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            64  30  39  25  47 /  90  80  30   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  24  38  22  47 / 100  90  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091-092-100>102-115.


&&

$$

25/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 040623 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AT JACKSBORO AND ATHENS...HAVE
EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL 6 AM. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXPIRATION WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE MADE FOR THE MAIN PACKAGE AS THE FOG MAY BE A PROBLEM PAST
6 AM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/
CIGS/VIS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND TONIGHT BUT GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 1SM
AND CIGS AROUND 500FT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS
BUT THESE SHOULD BECOME FEWER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT RAIN WILL PRIMARILY DOMINATE.

AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT THE
MAJOR METROPLEX AIRPORTS BY 6PM OR SO ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INITIAL FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LITTLE TO NO INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION. AS THE EVENING GOES
ON...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION
OVER TO SLEET. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET WILL SET UP VERY NEAR THE METROPLEX DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE BAND SLIDES TO THE EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BAND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...AREAS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT WACO WITH IFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY PREVAILING. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

DUNN


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...

CORRECTED THURSDAY TO WEDNESDAY

IN REFERENCE TO THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE HAVE LOOKED AT THE
INCOMING 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF AND ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND WORK
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE SW
TO NE ORIENTED BAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
WHICH HINGE ON THE TEMPERATURES...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
FOR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND WE SEE NO NEW DATA THAT SUGGESTS
WE NEED TO BUMP THE TIMING UP. ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR DOES OFTEN
GET HERE FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...OUR TIMING IS AHEAD OF
THE USUALLY RELIABLE RAP/NAM FORECASTS.

INDICATIONS FROM THE 0Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEING AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY SLEET WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STRONG LIFT WILL KEEP
COOLING THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND RESULT
IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WE ARE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WHERE 1-2 INCHES MAY FALL. THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY
FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO SAY JUST HOW
MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SPENT AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WOULD BE
ACCUMULATING SLEET OR SNOW. THE 21Z SREF RAISES CONCERNS THAT MORE
THAN 1 INCH OF SLEET WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND...AND THE 0Z NAM
AND HI-RES WRF MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR OVER A HALF INCH OF SLEET. A TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING THAT MAY DROP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOW WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALSO WORTH NOTING ARE THE WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL WORK TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE IN REGIONS WHERE A CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE SNOW OCCURS.

FOR THE FORECAST...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP POPS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AREAWIDE. THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE OR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE-OVER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE GOOD
SETUP...WE HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ALONG AND NW OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS. WE ARE NOW EXPECTING 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OF SLEET AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF A EASTLAND TO
DENTON TO BONHAM LINE. FOR THE LINE FROM COMANCHE TO THE METROPLEX
TO PARIS...WE ARE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND AN INCH OF SNOW.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP THE
ZONE FROM WACO TO ATHENS UP TO A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET.

WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF UPGRADING A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND IF THE 0Z GFS HAD NOT COME
IN WITH A FARTHER SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS IN
COMPARISON TO THE OTHER MODELS...WE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE HAD THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE NOW. WE WILL DEFFER ANY DECISIONS TO THE
NEXT SHIFT WHO WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE ECMWF...ECMWF
ENSEMBLE...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND 3Z SREF. WARNING OR NOT...THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

TR.92

&&



.SHORT TERM...

TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  26  39  24  47 / 100  90  10   5   5
WACO, TX              61  30  39  24  47 /  90  90  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             50  25  39  23  45 / 100  90  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            48  24  39  23  46 / 100  90  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          47  25  39  24  46 / 100  90  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            48  26  40  25  47 / 100  90  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           52  27  40  23  46 / 100  90  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  31  39  25  47 / 100  90  20   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            64  30  39  25  47 /  90  80  30   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  24  38  22  47 / 100  90  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091-092-100>102-115.


&&

$$

25/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 040623 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AT JACKSBORO AND ATHENS...HAVE
EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL 6 AM. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXPIRATION WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE MADE FOR THE MAIN PACKAGE AS THE FOG MAY BE A PROBLEM PAST
6 AM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/
CIGS/VIS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND TONIGHT BUT GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 1SM
AND CIGS AROUND 500FT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS
BUT THESE SHOULD BECOME FEWER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT RAIN WILL PRIMARILY DOMINATE.

AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT THE
MAJOR METROPLEX AIRPORTS BY 6PM OR SO ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INITIAL FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LITTLE TO NO INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION. AS THE EVENING GOES
ON...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION
OVER TO SLEET. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET WILL SET UP VERY NEAR THE METROPLEX DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE BAND SLIDES TO THE EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BAND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...AREAS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT WACO WITH IFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY PREVAILING. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

DUNN


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...

CORRECTED THURSDAY TO WEDNESDAY

IN REFERENCE TO THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE HAVE LOOKED AT THE
INCOMING 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF AND ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND WORK
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE SW
TO NE ORIENTED BAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
WHICH HINGE ON THE TEMPERATURES...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
FOR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND WE SEE NO NEW DATA THAT SUGGESTS
WE NEED TO BUMP THE TIMING UP. ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR DOES OFTEN
GET HERE FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...OUR TIMING IS AHEAD OF
THE USUALLY RELIABLE RAP/NAM FORECASTS.

INDICATIONS FROM THE 0Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEING AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY SLEET WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STRONG LIFT WILL KEEP
COOLING THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND RESULT
IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WE ARE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WHERE 1-2 INCHES MAY FALL. THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY
FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO SAY JUST HOW
MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SPENT AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WOULD BE
ACCUMULATING SLEET OR SNOW. THE 21Z SREF RAISES CONCERNS THAT MORE
THAN 1 INCH OF SLEET WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND...AND THE 0Z NAM
AND HI-RES WRF MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR OVER A HALF INCH OF SLEET. A TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING THAT MAY DROP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOW WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALSO WORTH NOTING ARE THE WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL WORK TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE IN REGIONS WHERE A CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE SNOW OCCURS.

FOR THE FORECAST...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP POPS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AREAWIDE. THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE OR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE-OVER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE GOOD
SETUP...WE HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ALONG AND NW OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS. WE ARE NOW EXPECTING 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OF SLEET AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF A EASTLAND TO
DENTON TO BONHAM LINE. FOR THE LINE FROM COMANCHE TO THE METROPLEX
TO PARIS...WE ARE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND AN INCH OF SNOW.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP THE
ZONE FROM WACO TO ATHENS UP TO A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET.

WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF UPGRADING A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND IF THE 0Z GFS HAD NOT COME
IN WITH A FARTHER SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS IN
COMPARISON TO THE OTHER MODELS...WE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE HAD THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE NOW. WE WILL DEFFER ANY DECISIONS TO THE
NEXT SHIFT WHO WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE ECMWF...ECMWF
ENSEMBLE...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND 3Z SREF. WARNING OR NOT...THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

TR.92

&&



.SHORT TERM...

TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  26  39  24  47 / 100  90  10   5   5
WACO, TX              61  30  39  24  47 /  90  90  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             50  25  39  23  45 / 100  90  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            48  24  39  23  46 / 100  90  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          47  25  39  24  46 / 100  90  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            48  26  40  25  47 / 100  90  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           52  27  40  23  46 / 100  90  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  31  39  25  47 / 100  90  20   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            64  30  39  25  47 /  90  80  30   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  24  38  22  47 / 100  90  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091-092-100>102-115.


&&

$$

25/58



000
FXUS64 KFWD 040623 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AT JACKSBORO AND ATHENS...HAVE
EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL 6 AM. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXPIRATION WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE MADE FOR THE MAIN PACKAGE AS THE FOG MAY BE A PROBLEM PAST
6 AM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/
CIGS/VIS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND TONIGHT BUT GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 1SM
AND CIGS AROUND 500FT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS
BUT THESE SHOULD BECOME FEWER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT RAIN WILL PRIMARILY DOMINATE.

AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT THE
MAJOR METROPLEX AIRPORTS BY 6PM OR SO ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INITIAL FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LITTLE TO NO INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION. AS THE EVENING GOES
ON...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION
OVER TO SLEET. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET WILL SET UP VERY NEAR THE METROPLEX DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE BAND SLIDES TO THE EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BAND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...AREAS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT WACO WITH IFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY PREVAILING. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

DUNN


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...

CORRECTED THURSDAY TO WEDNESDAY

IN REFERENCE TO THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE HAVE LOOKED AT THE
INCOMING 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF AND ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND WORK
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE SW
TO NE ORIENTED BAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
WHICH HINGE ON THE TEMPERATURES...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
FOR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND WE SEE NO NEW DATA THAT SUGGESTS
WE NEED TO BUMP THE TIMING UP. ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR DOES OFTEN
GET HERE FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...OUR TIMING IS AHEAD OF
THE USUALLY RELIABLE RAP/NAM FORECASTS.

INDICATIONS FROM THE 0Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEING AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY SLEET WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STRONG LIFT WILL KEEP
COOLING THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND RESULT
IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WE ARE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WHERE 1-2 INCHES MAY FALL. THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY
FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO SAY JUST HOW
MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SPENT AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WOULD BE
ACCUMULATING SLEET OR SNOW. THE 21Z SREF RAISES CONCERNS THAT MORE
THAN 1 INCH OF SLEET WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND...AND THE 0Z NAM
AND HI-RES WRF MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR OVER A HALF INCH OF SLEET. A TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING THAT MAY DROP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOW WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALSO WORTH NOTING ARE THE WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL WORK TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE IN REGIONS WHERE A CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE SNOW OCCURS.

FOR THE FORECAST...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP POPS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AREAWIDE. THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE OR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE-OVER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE GOOD
SETUP...WE HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ALONG AND NW OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS. WE ARE NOW EXPECTING 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OF SLEET AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF A EASTLAND TO
DENTON TO BONHAM LINE. FOR THE LINE FROM COMANCHE TO THE METROPLEX
TO PARIS...WE ARE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND AN INCH OF SNOW.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP THE
ZONE FROM WACO TO ATHENS UP TO A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET.

WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF UPGRADING A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND IF THE 0Z GFS HAD NOT COME
IN WITH A FARTHER SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS IN
COMPARISON TO THE OTHER MODELS...WE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE HAD THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE NOW. WE WILL DEFFER ANY DECISIONS TO THE
NEXT SHIFT WHO WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE ECMWF...ECMWF
ENSEMBLE...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND 3Z SREF. WARNING OR NOT...THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

TR.92

&&



.SHORT TERM...

TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  26  39  24  47 / 100  90  10   5   5
WACO, TX              61  30  39  24  47 /  90  90  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             50  25  39  23  45 / 100  90  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            48  24  39  23  46 / 100  90  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          47  25  39  24  46 / 100  90  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            48  26  40  25  47 / 100  90  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           52  27  40  23  46 / 100  90  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  31  39  25  47 / 100  90  20   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            64  30  39  25  47 /  90  80  30   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  24  38  22  47 / 100  90  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091-092-100>102-115.


&&

$$

25/58



000
FXUS64 KBRO 040619 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1219 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED OVER THE AERODROMES...EVEN TO THE
POINT OF LIFR AT BRO. POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE
DUE TO BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY RISING CEILINGS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO DIMINISH
AND LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP. THE NEXT ITERATION OF TAFS WILL LIKELY
HAVE THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...A STRATUS DECK AROUND
1K FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WITH MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE. THE
TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC VISIBILITIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MODERATE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MORE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. ON WEDNESDAY...FULL VFR WILL RETURN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  42  40 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  40  38 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  39  38 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  38  37 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  40  36 /  10  60  40  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  46  46  43 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63



000
FXUS64 KBRO 040619 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1219 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED OVER THE AERODROMES...EVEN TO THE
POINT OF LIFR AT BRO. POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE
DUE TO BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY RISING CEILINGS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO DIMINISH
AND LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP. THE NEXT ITERATION OF TAFS WILL LIKELY
HAVE THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...A STRATUS DECK AROUND
1K FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WITH MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE. THE
TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC VISIBILITIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MODERATE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MORE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. ON WEDNESDAY...FULL VFR WILL RETURN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  42  40 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  40  38 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  39  38 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  38  37 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  40  36 /  10  60  40  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  46  46  43 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63



000
FXUS64 KBRO 040619 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1219 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED OVER THE AERODROMES...EVEN TO THE
POINT OF LIFR AT BRO. POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE
DUE TO BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY RISING CEILINGS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO DIMINISH
AND LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP. THE NEXT ITERATION OF TAFS WILL LIKELY
HAVE THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...A STRATUS DECK AROUND
1K FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WITH MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE. THE
TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC VISIBILITIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MODERATE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MORE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. ON WEDNESDAY...FULL VFR WILL RETURN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  42  40 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  40  38 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  39  38 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  38  37 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  40  36 /  10  60  40  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  46  46  43 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 040619 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1219 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED OVER THE AERODROMES...EVEN TO THE
POINT OF LIFR AT BRO. POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE
DUE TO BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY RISING CEILINGS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO DIMINISH
AND LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP. THE NEXT ITERATION OF TAFS WILL LIKELY
HAVE THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...A STRATUS DECK AROUND
1K FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WITH MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE. THE
TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC VISIBILITIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MODERATE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MORE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. ON WEDNESDAY...FULL VFR WILL RETURN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  42  42  40 /  10  50  60  40
BROWNSVILLE          84  39  40  38 /  10  50  60  40
HARLINGEN            85  39  39  38 /  10  60  60  40
MCALLEN              87  38  38  37 /  10  60  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  40  40  36 /  10  60  40  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  46  46  43 /  10  50  60  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR GMZ130-
     132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63




000
FXUS64 KSJT 040555 AAC
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1155 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Rain showers are increasing in coverage across the northwest half
of west central Texas, while low clouds are developing across
southern and eastern sections. Expect a continuation of these
trends overnight. Carrying low cloud ceilings 800-1100 ft at
our southern TAF sites, and mentioning showers at KABI and KSJT.
A strong cold front will push south across west central Texas on
Wednesday. This front is expected to reach KABI shortly before
13Z, KSJT by 16Z, and the I-10 corridor by or shortly after 19Z.
Generally light winds will occur ahead of the front. Although
gusty north winds will follow passage of this front, the stronger
winds and gusts will occur several hours after the frontal passage.
Rain is expected early in the afternoon. As cold air deepens, the
precipitation type will make a southward transition to freezing
rain/sleet through the evening. Farther north across the Big
Country, a sleet to snow transition is expected by late Wednesday
evening. Ceilings will visibilities will drop through the
afternoon and evening, in the post-frontal precipitation. By 03Z,
carrying snow/sleet at KABI, freezing rain/sleet at KSJT, and
freezing rain at KSOA and KJCT.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Updated to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday afternoon
and Wednesday Night for the Big Country, along and north of I-20
from Sweetwater to Abilene. New guidance continues to indicate
that the freezing line will drop south into the Big Country by mid
to late afternoon, in the heart of the precip shield. Soundings at
Abilene indicate a freeing rain and perhaps sleet setup,
eventually changing over to snow during the evening. Bumped
precipitation chances up and tweaked hourly temperatures to
account.

Indications are that wintry precip may well cover a large part of
West Central Texas by tomorrow evening. Will let the next shift
peruse the entire set of data, but would not surprise me to see
the advisory shifted south.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The low clouds have cleared out and VFR conditions have returned,
but this will not last much longer. After Midnight, low cloud
development with MVFR ceilings will affect our southern TAF sites.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight and
continue into Wednesday morning. The KABI terminal will most likely
be affected. A strong cold front will push south across west central
Texas on Wednesday. This front is expected to reach KABI shortly
before 12Z, KSJT by 16Z, and the I-10 corridor around 19Z. Geherally
light winds will occur ahead of the front, and gusty north winds
will follow passage of this front. Rain will increase in coverage
during the afternoon, becoming freezing rain across the Big Country.
Ceilings will drop through the afternoon. with some visibility
reduction.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Look for big weather changes during the next 24 hours. As a minor
upper-level disturbance moves over West Central Texas tonight, it
will bring the potential for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be mainly along
and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, with more favorable upper
dynamics there. In addition, low clouds will return to much of West
Central Texas overnight, as another cold front approaches from the
north. Timing of this front is critical, with respect to when winter
type precipitation will begin tomorrow. Models continue to bring the
cold front to our Interstate 20 corridor by 6 am CST tomorrow
morning. So, with that timing, we believe the winter precipitation
will not begin until tomorrow afternoon, for locations along and
north of a Mertzon, to San Angelo, to Spring Creek line. Plus, we
believe accumulation of sleet of ice will not begin until after 6 PM
CST tomorrow evening, because surface cold air advection behind the
front will not be strong enough to lower surface temperatures to or
below the freezing mark.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Another blast of winter weather will affect all of West Central
Texas in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame. Cold air
will continue to deepen across the area, with soundings showing most
areas having changed to an all winter precipitation type by
midnight. Taking a closer look at these soundings, a wedge of
warm air is seen between three-six thousand feet above the surface,
with sub-freezing air above and below this layer. This warm layer
barely reaches +3 Celsius, and the top of the saturated layer barely
touches -10/-11 Celsius (just below the dendrite growth zone). Given
this type of sounding profile, the forecast was changed to show
freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type. Some sleet
could also mix in at times, especially with any elevated convection
which develops, as the soundings show elevated instability
developing with MUCAPEs approaching 100 J/kg in the 700-450mb layer.

By Thursday afternoon, dry air will rapidly advect into the area,
allowing skies to become partly sunny from northwest to southeast
across the region. However, temperatures will be slow to recover
with most areas remaining in the 30s. Heading through the remainder
of the week and into the weekend, temperatures will continue to
moderate by 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit each day, with highs
approaching 60 degrees by Sunday, and remain in the 60s for the
first half of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  47  49  21  35  21 /  50  80  80  10   5
San Angelo  50  57  25  39  23 /  50  60  60  10   5
Junction  50  63  28  38  23 /  30  60  60  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...
Nolan...Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 040555 AAC
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1155 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Rain showers are increasing in coverage across the northwest half
of west central Texas, while low clouds are developing across
southern and eastern sections. Expect a continuation of these
trends overnight. Carrying low cloud ceilings 800-1100 ft at
our southern TAF sites, and mentioning showers at KABI and KSJT.
A strong cold front will push south across west central Texas on
Wednesday. This front is expected to reach KABI shortly before
13Z, KSJT by 16Z, and the I-10 corridor by or shortly after 19Z.
Generally light winds will occur ahead of the front. Although
gusty north winds will follow passage of this front, the stronger
winds and gusts will occur several hours after the frontal passage.
Rain is expected early in the afternoon. As cold air deepens, the
precipitation type will make a southward transition to freezing
rain/sleet through the evening. Farther north across the Big
Country, a sleet to snow transition is expected by late Wednesday
evening. Ceilings will visibilities will drop through the
afternoon and evening, in the post-frontal precipitation. By 03Z,
carrying snow/sleet at KABI, freezing rain/sleet at KSJT, and
freezing rain at KSOA and KJCT.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Updated to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday afternoon
and Wednesday Night for the Big Country, along and north of I-20
from Sweetwater to Abilene. New guidance continues to indicate
that the freezing line will drop south into the Big Country by mid
to late afternoon, in the heart of the precip shield. Soundings at
Abilene indicate a freeing rain and perhaps sleet setup,
eventually changing over to snow during the evening. Bumped
precipitation chances up and tweaked hourly temperatures to
account.

Indications are that wintry precip may well cover a large part of
West Central Texas by tomorrow evening. Will let the next shift
peruse the entire set of data, but would not surprise me to see
the advisory shifted south.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The low clouds have cleared out and VFR conditions have returned,
but this will not last much longer. After Midnight, low cloud
development with MVFR ceilings will affect our southern TAF sites.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight and
continue into Wednesday morning. The KABI terminal will most likely
be affected. A strong cold front will push south across west central
Texas on Wednesday. This front is expected to reach KABI shortly
before 12Z, KSJT by 16Z, and the I-10 corridor around 19Z. Geherally
light winds will occur ahead of the front, and gusty north winds
will follow passage of this front. Rain will increase in coverage
during the afternoon, becoming freezing rain across the Big Country.
Ceilings will drop through the afternoon. with some visibility
reduction.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Look for big weather changes during the next 24 hours. As a minor
upper-level disturbance moves over West Central Texas tonight, it
will bring the potential for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be mainly along
and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, with more favorable upper
dynamics there. In addition, low clouds will return to much of West
Central Texas overnight, as another cold front approaches from the
north. Timing of this front is critical, with respect to when winter
type precipitation will begin tomorrow. Models continue to bring the
cold front to our Interstate 20 corridor by 6 am CST tomorrow
morning. So, with that timing, we believe the winter precipitation
will not begin until tomorrow afternoon, for locations along and
north of a Mertzon, to San Angelo, to Spring Creek line. Plus, we
believe accumulation of sleet of ice will not begin until after 6 PM
CST tomorrow evening, because surface cold air advection behind the
front will not be strong enough to lower surface temperatures to or
below the freezing mark.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Another blast of winter weather will affect all of West Central
Texas in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame. Cold air
will continue to deepen across the area, with soundings showing most
areas having changed to an all winter precipitation type by
midnight. Taking a closer look at these soundings, a wedge of
warm air is seen between three-six thousand feet above the surface,
with sub-freezing air above and below this layer. This warm layer
barely reaches +3 Celsius, and the top of the saturated layer barely
touches -10/-11 Celsius (just below the dendrite growth zone). Given
this type of sounding profile, the forecast was changed to show
freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type. Some sleet
could also mix in at times, especially with any elevated convection
which develops, as the soundings show elevated instability
developing with MUCAPEs approaching 100 J/kg in the 700-450mb layer.

By Thursday afternoon, dry air will rapidly advect into the area,
allowing skies to become partly sunny from northwest to southeast
across the region. However, temperatures will be slow to recover
with most areas remaining in the 30s. Heading through the remainder
of the week and into the weekend, temperatures will continue to
moderate by 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit each day, with highs
approaching 60 degrees by Sunday, and remain in the 60s for the
first half of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  47  49  21  35  21 /  50  80  80  10   5
San Angelo  50  57  25  39  23 /  50  60  60  10   5
Junction  50  63  28  38  23 /  30  60  60  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...
Nolan...Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 040555 AAC
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1155 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Rain showers are increasing in coverage across the northwest half
of west central Texas, while low clouds are developing across
southern and eastern sections. Expect a continuation of these
trends overnight. Carrying low cloud ceilings 800-1100 ft at
our southern TAF sites, and mentioning showers at KABI and KSJT.
A strong cold front will push south across west central Texas on
Wednesday. This front is expected to reach KABI shortly before
13Z, KSJT by 16Z, and the I-10 corridor by or shortly after 19Z.
Generally light winds will occur ahead of the front. Although
gusty north winds will follow passage of this front, the stronger
winds and gusts will occur several hours after the frontal passage.
Rain is expected early in the afternoon. As cold air deepens, the
precipitation type will make a southward transition to freezing
rain/sleet through the evening. Farther north across the Big
Country, a sleet to snow transition is expected by late Wednesday
evening. Ceilings will visibilities will drop through the
afternoon and evening, in the post-frontal precipitation. By 03Z,
carrying snow/sleet at KABI, freezing rain/sleet at KSJT, and
freezing rain at KSOA and KJCT.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Updated to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday afternoon
and Wednesday Night for the Big Country, along and north of I-20
from Sweetwater to Abilene. New guidance continues to indicate
that the freezing line will drop south into the Big Country by mid
to late afternoon, in the heart of the precip shield. Soundings at
Abilene indicate a freeing rain and perhaps sleet setup,
eventually changing over to snow during the evening. Bumped
precipitation chances up and tweaked hourly temperatures to
account.

Indications are that wintry precip may well cover a large part of
West Central Texas by tomorrow evening. Will let the next shift
peruse the entire set of data, but would not surprise me to see
the advisory shifted south.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The low clouds have cleared out and VFR conditions have returned,
but this will not last much longer. After Midnight, low cloud
development with MVFR ceilings will affect our southern TAF sites.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight and
continue into Wednesday morning. The KABI terminal will most likely
be affected. A strong cold front will push south across west central
Texas on Wednesday. This front is expected to reach KABI shortly
before 12Z, KSJT by 16Z, and the I-10 corridor around 19Z. Geherally
light winds will occur ahead of the front, and gusty north winds
will follow passage of this front. Rain will increase in coverage
during the afternoon, becoming freezing rain across the Big Country.
Ceilings will drop through the afternoon. with some visibility
reduction.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Look for big weather changes during the next 24 hours. As a minor
upper-level disturbance moves over West Central Texas tonight, it
will bring the potential for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be mainly along
and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, with more favorable upper
dynamics there. In addition, low clouds will return to much of West
Central Texas overnight, as another cold front approaches from the
north. Timing of this front is critical, with respect to when winter
type precipitation will begin tomorrow. Models continue to bring the
cold front to our Interstate 20 corridor by 6 am CST tomorrow
morning. So, with that timing, we believe the winter precipitation
will not begin until tomorrow afternoon, for locations along and
north of a Mertzon, to San Angelo, to Spring Creek line. Plus, we
believe accumulation of sleet of ice will not begin until after 6 PM
CST tomorrow evening, because surface cold air advection behind the
front will not be strong enough to lower surface temperatures to or
below the freezing mark.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Another blast of winter weather will affect all of West Central
Texas in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame. Cold air
will continue to deepen across the area, with soundings showing most
areas having changed to an all winter precipitation type by
midnight. Taking a closer look at these soundings, a wedge of
warm air is seen between three-six thousand feet above the surface,
with sub-freezing air above and below this layer. This warm layer
barely reaches +3 Celsius, and the top of the saturated layer barely
touches -10/-11 Celsius (just below the dendrite growth zone). Given
this type of sounding profile, the forecast was changed to show
freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type. Some sleet
could also mix in at times, especially with any elevated convection
which develops, as the soundings show elevated instability
developing with MUCAPEs approaching 100 J/kg in the 700-450mb layer.

By Thursday afternoon, dry air will rapidly advect into the area,
allowing skies to become partly sunny from northwest to southeast
across the region. However, temperatures will be slow to recover
with most areas remaining in the 30s. Heading through the remainder
of the week and into the weekend, temperatures will continue to
moderate by 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit each day, with highs
approaching 60 degrees by Sunday, and remain in the 60s for the
first half of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  47  49  21  35  21 /  50  80  80  10   5
San Angelo  50  57  25  39  23 /  50  60  60  10   5
Junction  50  63  28  38  23 /  30  60  60  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...
Nolan...Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 040555 AAC
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1155 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Rain showers are increasing in coverage across the northwest half
of west central Texas, while low clouds are developing across
southern and eastern sections. Expect a continuation of these
trends overnight. Carrying low cloud ceilings 800-1100 ft at
our southern TAF sites, and mentioning showers at KABI and KSJT.
A strong cold front will push south across west central Texas on
Wednesday. This front is expected to reach KABI shortly before
13Z, KSJT by 16Z, and the I-10 corridor by or shortly after 19Z.
Generally light winds will occur ahead of the front. Although
gusty north winds will follow passage of this front, the stronger
winds and gusts will occur several hours after the frontal passage.
Rain is expected early in the afternoon. As cold air deepens, the
precipitation type will make a southward transition to freezing
rain/sleet through the evening. Farther north across the Big
Country, a sleet to snow transition is expected by late Wednesday
evening. Ceilings will visibilities will drop through the
afternoon and evening, in the post-frontal precipitation. By 03Z,
carrying snow/sleet at KABI, freezing rain/sleet at KSJT, and
freezing rain at KSOA and KJCT.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Updated to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday afternoon
and Wednesday Night for the Big Country, along and north of I-20
from Sweetwater to Abilene. New guidance continues to indicate
that the freezing line will drop south into the Big Country by mid
to late afternoon, in the heart of the precip shield. Soundings at
Abilene indicate a freeing rain and perhaps sleet setup,
eventually changing over to snow during the evening. Bumped
precipitation chances up and tweaked hourly temperatures to
account.

Indications are that wintry precip may well cover a large part of
West Central Texas by tomorrow evening. Will let the next shift
peruse the entire set of data, but would not surprise me to see
the advisory shifted south.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The low clouds have cleared out and VFR conditions have returned,
but this will not last much longer. After Midnight, low cloud
development with MVFR ceilings will affect our southern TAF sites.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight and
continue into Wednesday morning. The KABI terminal will most likely
be affected. A strong cold front will push south across west central
Texas on Wednesday. This front is expected to reach KABI shortly
before 12Z, KSJT by 16Z, and the I-10 corridor around 19Z. Geherally
light winds will occur ahead of the front, and gusty north winds
will follow passage of this front. Rain will increase in coverage
during the afternoon, becoming freezing rain across the Big Country.
Ceilings will drop through the afternoon. with some visibility
reduction.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Look for big weather changes during the next 24 hours. As a minor
upper-level disturbance moves over West Central Texas tonight, it
will bring the potential for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be mainly along
and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, with more favorable upper
dynamics there. In addition, low clouds will return to much of West
Central Texas overnight, as another cold front approaches from the
north. Timing of this front is critical, with respect to when winter
type precipitation will begin tomorrow. Models continue to bring the
cold front to our Interstate 20 corridor by 6 am CST tomorrow
morning. So, with that timing, we believe the winter precipitation
will not begin until tomorrow afternoon, for locations along and
north of a Mertzon, to San Angelo, to Spring Creek line. Plus, we
believe accumulation of sleet of ice will not begin until after 6 PM
CST tomorrow evening, because surface cold air advection behind the
front will not be strong enough to lower surface temperatures to or
below the freezing mark.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Another blast of winter weather will affect all of West Central
Texas in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame. Cold air
will continue to deepen across the area, with soundings showing most
areas having changed to an all winter precipitation type by
midnight. Taking a closer look at these soundings, a wedge of
warm air is seen between three-six thousand feet above the surface,
with sub-freezing air above and below this layer. This warm layer
barely reaches +3 Celsius, and the top of the saturated layer barely
touches -10/-11 Celsius (just below the dendrite growth zone). Given
this type of sounding profile, the forecast was changed to show
freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type. Some sleet
could also mix in at times, especially with any elevated convection
which develops, as the soundings show elevated instability
developing with MUCAPEs approaching 100 J/kg in the 700-450mb layer.

By Thursday afternoon, dry air will rapidly advect into the area,
allowing skies to become partly sunny from northwest to southeast
across the region. However, temperatures will be slow to recover
with most areas remaining in the 30s. Heading through the remainder
of the week and into the weekend, temperatures will continue to
moderate by 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit each day, with highs
approaching 60 degrees by Sunday, and remain in the 60s for the
first half of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  47  49  21  35  21 /  50  80  80  10   5
San Angelo  50  57  25  39  23 /  50  60  60  10   5
Junction  50  63  28  38  23 /  30  60  60  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...
Nolan...Shackelford...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHGX 040549
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SEA FOG HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING THIS EVENING. THE
00Z HRRR STILL FORECASTS LOW VISIBILITIES FOR KGLS AND POSSIBLY
KLBX THROUGH 15Z. ELSEWHERE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS FORECASTED BY THE
MODELS LOOK REASONABLE. ALSO LIKED HOW THE MODELS SCATTER OUT THE
CEILINGS TO VFR AT THE INLAND LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT KIAH TO THE
COAST BY MIDDAY. ACTUALLY...THE 00Z NAM12 HUMIDITY FIELDS AND THE
00Z NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW KGLS AND KLBX SCATTERING
OUT TO VFR AT BEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE KCLL AND KUTS AREAS BY 00Z. CEILINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME LIFTING ABOVE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND
FELT THAT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEST AT BOTH SITES
BETWEEN 21Z TO AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT 00Z. CHANCES FOR THUNDER
WERE LESS AT KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO AIRPORTS. THE FRONT SHOULD
WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO BY MID EVENING AND OFF THE
COAST AROUND 06Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT SHREVEPORT TO
HALLETSVILLE TO LAREDO. SFC DEW PTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING FROM MODEST SFC
WINDS SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SO
BUMPED MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. KHGX VWP SHOWS A SOUTH FLOW
NEAR 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET AND SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
SO FEEL LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG. GALVESTON HAD
DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THAT SAID...POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR POCKETS
OF DENSE SEA FOG TO AFFECT KGLS AS DEW PTS NEAR 70 FLOW OVER SHELF
WATERS IN THE LOWER 50S. NOT SURE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED ALONG THE COAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND DECIDE A BIT
LATER ON WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE
TONIGHT AS SE TX LIES A LITTLE TOO CLOSE TO A 300 MB RIDGE WITH
THE BEST JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF SE TX. BEST
850-700 MB MOISTURE IS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN AS THE
UPPER JET NEARS AND MSTR LEVELS BEGIN TO DEEPEN. NEW ZONES OUT BY
915 PM. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
THE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES AT 2330Z WILL LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
EVENING. KGLS HAD SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND SHOULD SEE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO SINCE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FACT
MAY ALONG HELP KEEP SEA FOG FROM BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  74  32  37  27 /  20  80  60  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  76  37  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  66  41  42  35 /  20  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40



000
FXUS64 KHGX 040549
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SEA FOG HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING THIS EVENING. THE
00Z HRRR STILL FORECASTS LOW VISIBILITIES FOR KGLS AND POSSIBLY
KLBX THROUGH 15Z. ELSEWHERE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS FORECASTED BY THE
MODELS LOOK REASONABLE. ALSO LIKED HOW THE MODELS SCATTER OUT THE
CEILINGS TO VFR AT THE INLAND LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT KIAH TO THE
COAST BY MIDDAY. ACTUALLY...THE 00Z NAM12 HUMIDITY FIELDS AND THE
00Z NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW KGLS AND KLBX SCATTERING
OUT TO VFR AT BEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE KCLL AND KUTS AREAS BY 00Z. CEILINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME LIFTING ABOVE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND
FELT THAT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEST AT BOTH SITES
BETWEEN 21Z TO AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT 00Z. CHANCES FOR THUNDER
WERE LESS AT KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO AIRPORTS. THE FRONT SHOULD
WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO BY MID EVENING AND OFF THE
COAST AROUND 06Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT SHREVEPORT TO
HALLETSVILLE TO LAREDO. SFC DEW PTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING FROM MODEST SFC
WINDS SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SO
BUMPED MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. KHGX VWP SHOWS A SOUTH FLOW
NEAR 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET AND SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
SO FEEL LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG. GALVESTON HAD
DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THAT SAID...POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR POCKETS
OF DENSE SEA FOG TO AFFECT KGLS AS DEW PTS NEAR 70 FLOW OVER SHELF
WATERS IN THE LOWER 50S. NOT SURE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED ALONG THE COAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND DECIDE A BIT
LATER ON WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE
TONIGHT AS SE TX LIES A LITTLE TOO CLOSE TO A 300 MB RIDGE WITH
THE BEST JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF SE TX. BEST
850-700 MB MOISTURE IS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN AS THE
UPPER JET NEARS AND MSTR LEVELS BEGIN TO DEEPEN. NEW ZONES OUT BY
915 PM. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
THE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES AT 2330Z WILL LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
EVENING. KGLS HAD SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND SHOULD SEE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO SINCE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FACT
MAY ALONG HELP KEEP SEA FOG FROM BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  74  32  37  27 /  20  80  60  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  76  37  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  66  41  42  35 /  20  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40



000
FXUS64 KHGX 040549
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SEA FOG HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING THIS EVENING. THE
00Z HRRR STILL FORECASTS LOW VISIBILITIES FOR KGLS AND POSSIBLY
KLBX THROUGH 15Z. ELSEWHERE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS FORECASTED BY THE
MODELS LOOK REASONABLE. ALSO LIKED HOW THE MODELS SCATTER OUT THE
CEILINGS TO VFR AT THE INLAND LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT KIAH TO THE
COAST BY MIDDAY. ACTUALLY...THE 00Z NAM12 HUMIDITY FIELDS AND THE
00Z NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW KGLS AND KLBX SCATTERING
OUT TO VFR AT BEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE KCLL AND KUTS AREAS BY 00Z. CEILINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME LIFTING ABOVE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND
FELT THAT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEST AT BOTH SITES
BETWEEN 21Z TO AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT 00Z. CHANCES FOR THUNDER
WERE LESS AT KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO AIRPORTS. THE FRONT SHOULD
WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO BY MID EVENING AND OFF THE
COAST AROUND 06Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT SHREVEPORT TO
HALLETSVILLE TO LAREDO. SFC DEW PTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING FROM MODEST SFC
WINDS SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SO
BUMPED MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. KHGX VWP SHOWS A SOUTH FLOW
NEAR 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET AND SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
SO FEEL LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG. GALVESTON HAD
DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THAT SAID...POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR POCKETS
OF DENSE SEA FOG TO AFFECT KGLS AS DEW PTS NEAR 70 FLOW OVER SHELF
WATERS IN THE LOWER 50S. NOT SURE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED ALONG THE COAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND DECIDE A BIT
LATER ON WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE
TONIGHT AS SE TX LIES A LITTLE TOO CLOSE TO A 300 MB RIDGE WITH
THE BEST JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF SE TX. BEST
850-700 MB MOISTURE IS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN AS THE
UPPER JET NEARS AND MSTR LEVELS BEGIN TO DEEPEN. NEW ZONES OUT BY
915 PM. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
THE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES AT 2330Z WILL LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
EVENING. KGLS HAD SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND SHOULD SEE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO SINCE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FACT
MAY ALONG HELP KEEP SEA FOG FROM BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  74  32  37  27 /  20  80  60  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  76  37  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  66  41  42  35 /  20  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40



000
FXUS64 KHGX 040549
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SEA FOG HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING THIS EVENING. THE
00Z HRRR STILL FORECASTS LOW VISIBILITIES FOR KGLS AND POSSIBLY
KLBX THROUGH 15Z. ELSEWHERE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS FORECASTED BY THE
MODELS LOOK REASONABLE. ALSO LIKED HOW THE MODELS SCATTER OUT THE
CEILINGS TO VFR AT THE INLAND LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT KIAH TO THE
COAST BY MIDDAY. ACTUALLY...THE 00Z NAM12 HUMIDITY FIELDS AND THE
00Z NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW KGLS AND KLBX SCATTERING
OUT TO VFR AT BEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE KCLL AND KUTS AREAS BY 00Z. CEILINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME LIFTING ABOVE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND
FELT THAT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEST AT BOTH SITES
BETWEEN 21Z TO AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT 00Z. CHANCES FOR THUNDER
WERE LESS AT KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO AIRPORTS. THE FRONT SHOULD
WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO BY MID EVENING AND OFF THE
COAST AROUND 06Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT SHREVEPORT TO
HALLETSVILLE TO LAREDO. SFC DEW PTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING FROM MODEST SFC
WINDS SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SO
BUMPED MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. KHGX VWP SHOWS A SOUTH FLOW
NEAR 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET AND SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
SO FEEL LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG. GALVESTON HAD
DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THAT SAID...POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR POCKETS
OF DENSE SEA FOG TO AFFECT KGLS AS DEW PTS NEAR 70 FLOW OVER SHELF
WATERS IN THE LOWER 50S. NOT SURE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED ALONG THE COAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND DECIDE A BIT
LATER ON WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE
TONIGHT AS SE TX LIES A LITTLE TOO CLOSE TO A 300 MB RIDGE WITH
THE BEST JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF SE TX. BEST
850-700 MB MOISTURE IS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN AS THE
UPPER JET NEARS AND MSTR LEVELS BEGIN TO DEEPEN. NEW ZONES OUT BY
915 PM. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
THE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES AT 2330Z WILL LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
EVENING. KGLS HAD SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND SHOULD SEE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO SINCE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FACT
MAY ALONG HELP KEEP SEA FOG FROM BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  74  32  37  27 /  20  80  60  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  76  37  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  66  41  42  35 /  20  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40



000
FXUS64 KHGX 040549
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SEA FOG HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING THIS EVENING. THE
00Z HRRR STILL FORECASTS LOW VISIBILITIES FOR KGLS AND POSSIBLY
KLBX THROUGH 15Z. ELSEWHERE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS FORECASTED BY THE
MODELS LOOK REASONABLE. ALSO LIKED HOW THE MODELS SCATTER OUT THE
CEILINGS TO VFR AT THE INLAND LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT KIAH TO THE
COAST BY MIDDAY. ACTUALLY...THE 00Z NAM12 HUMIDITY FIELDS AND THE
00Z NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW KGLS AND KLBX SCATTERING
OUT TO VFR AT BEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE KCLL AND KUTS AREAS BY 00Z. CEILINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME LIFTING ABOVE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND
FELT THAT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEST AT BOTH SITES
BETWEEN 21Z TO AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT 00Z. CHANCES FOR THUNDER
WERE LESS AT KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO AIRPORTS. THE FRONT SHOULD
WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO BY MID EVENING AND OFF THE
COAST AROUND 06Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT SHREVEPORT TO
HALLETSVILLE TO LAREDO. SFC DEW PTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING FROM MODEST SFC
WINDS SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SO
BUMPED MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. KHGX VWP SHOWS A SOUTH FLOW
NEAR 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET AND SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
SO FEEL LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG. GALVESTON HAD
DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THAT SAID...POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR POCKETS
OF DENSE SEA FOG TO AFFECT KGLS AS DEW PTS NEAR 70 FLOW OVER SHELF
WATERS IN THE LOWER 50S. NOT SURE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED ALONG THE COAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND DECIDE A BIT
LATER ON WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE
TONIGHT AS SE TX LIES A LITTLE TOO CLOSE TO A 300 MB RIDGE WITH
THE BEST JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF SE TX. BEST
850-700 MB MOISTURE IS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN AS THE
UPPER JET NEARS AND MSTR LEVELS BEGIN TO DEEPEN. NEW ZONES OUT BY
915 PM. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
THE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES AT 2330Z WILL LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
EVENING. KGLS HAD SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND SHOULD SEE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO SINCE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FACT
MAY ALONG HELP KEEP SEA FOG FROM BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  74  32  37  27 /  20  80  60  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  76  37  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  66  41  42  35 /  20  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40



000
FXUS64 KHGX 040549
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SEA FOG HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME FORMING THIS EVENING. THE
00Z HRRR STILL FORECASTS LOW VISIBILITIES FOR KGLS AND POSSIBLY
KLBX THROUGH 15Z. ELSEWHERE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS FORECASTED BY THE
MODELS LOOK REASONABLE. ALSO LIKED HOW THE MODELS SCATTER OUT THE
CEILINGS TO VFR AT THE INLAND LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT KIAH TO THE
COAST BY MIDDAY. ACTUALLY...THE 00Z NAM12 HUMIDITY FIELDS AND THE
00Z NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW KGLS AND KLBX SCATTERING
OUT TO VFR AT BEST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

THE MODELS WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT INTO
THE KCLL AND KUTS AREAS BY 00Z. CEILINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME LIFTING ABOVE MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND
FELT THAT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEST AT BOTH SITES
BETWEEN 21Z TO AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE AT 00Z. CHANCES FOR THUNDER
WERE LESS AT KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO AIRPORTS. THE FRONT SHOULD
WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO BY MID EVENING AND OFF THE
COAST AROUND 06Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT SHREVEPORT TO
HALLETSVILLE TO LAREDO. SFC DEW PTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING FROM MODEST SFC
WINDS SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SO
BUMPED MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. KHGX VWP SHOWS A SOUTH FLOW
NEAR 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET AND SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
SO FEEL LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG. GALVESTON HAD
DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THAT SAID...POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR POCKETS
OF DENSE SEA FOG TO AFFECT KGLS AS DEW PTS NEAR 70 FLOW OVER SHELF
WATERS IN THE LOWER 50S. NOT SURE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED ALONG THE COAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND DECIDE A BIT
LATER ON WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE
TONIGHT AS SE TX LIES A LITTLE TOO CLOSE TO A 300 MB RIDGE WITH
THE BEST JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF SE TX. BEST
850-700 MB MOISTURE IS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN AS THE
UPPER JET NEARS AND MSTR LEVELS BEGIN TO DEEPEN. NEW ZONES OUT BY
915 PM. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
THE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES AT 2330Z WILL LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
EVENING. KGLS HAD SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND SHOULD SEE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO SINCE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FACT
MAY ALONG HELP KEEP SEA FOG FROM BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  74  32  37  27 /  20  80  60  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  76  37  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  66  41  42  35 /  20  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KEWX 040542 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
CIGS/VBSYS ARE AT IFR CATEGORY BUT NOT FOR LONG. AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WIND DIE DOWN. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES. THEREFORE...EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS. ALSO...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
MOST GRID EDITS WERE MADE TO HOURLY T AND DEWT TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED FOG MENTION INTO DIMMITT COUNTY. EXPECTING
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. AT THE MOMENT...ONLY PATCHY DENSE IS BEING OBSERVED
SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FIRST.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT OUT WEST...AREA TERMINALS ARE IN
IFR CATEGORY AND EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO BECOME DENSE
OVERNIGHT WITH VBSYS LOWERING TO VLIFR PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH VBSYS
IMPROVING A BIT BUT LIFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ALONG THE I35 SITES AROUND 22Z/23Z. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           57  76  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99



000
FXUS64 KFWD 040542 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CIGS/VIS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND TONIGHT BUT GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 1SM
AND CIGS AROUND 500FT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS
BUT THESE SHOULD BECOME FEWER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT RAIN WILL PRIMARILY DOMINATE.

AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT THE
MAJOR METROPLEX AIRPORTS BY 6PM OR SO ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INITIAL FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LITTLE TO NO INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION. AS THE EVENING GOES
ON...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION
OVER TO SLEET. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET WILL SET UP VERY NEAR THE METROPLEX DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE BAND SLIDES TO THE EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BAND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...AREAS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT WACO WITH IFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY PREVAILING. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...

CORRECTED THURSDAY TO WEDNESDAY

IN REFERENCE TO THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE HAVE LOOKED AT THE
INCOMING 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF AND ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND WORK
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE SW
TO NE ORIENTED BAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
WHICH HINGE ON THE TEMPERATURES...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
FOR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND WE SEE NO NEW DATA THAT SUGGESTS
WE NEED TO BUMP THE TIMING UP. ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR DOES OFTEN
GET HERE FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...OUR TIMING IS AHEAD OF
THE USUALLY RELIABLE RAP/NAM FORECASTS.

INDICATIONS FROM THE 0Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEING AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY SLEET WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STRONG LIFT WILL KEEP
COOLING THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND RESULT
IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WE ARE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WHERE 1-2 INCHES MAY FALL. THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY
FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO SAY JUST HOW
MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SPENT AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WOULD BE
ACCUMULATING SLEET OR SNOW. THE 21Z SREF RAISES CONCERNS THAT MORE
THAN 1 INCH OF SLEET WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND...AND THE 0Z NAM
AND HI-RES WRF MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR OVER A HALF INCH OF SLEET. A TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING THAT MAY DROP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOW WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALSO WORTH NOTING ARE THE WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL WORK TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE IN REGIONS WHERE A CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE SNOW OCCURS.

FOR THE FORECAST...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP POPS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AREAWIDE. THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE OR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE-OVER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE GOOD
SETUP...WE HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ALONG AND NW OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS. WE ARE NOW EXPECTING 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OF SLEET AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF A EASTLAND TO
DENTON TO BONHAM LINE. FOR THE LINE FROM COMANCHE TO THE METROPLEX
TO PARIS...WE ARE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND AN INCH OF SNOW.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP THE
ZONE FROM WACO TO ATHENS UP TO A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET.

WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF UPGRADING A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND IF THE 0Z GFS HAD NOT COME
IN WITH A FARTHER SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS IN
COMPARISON TO THE OTHER MODELS...WE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE HAD THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE NOW. WE WILL DEFFER ANY DECISIONS TO THE
NEXT SHIFT WHO WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE ECMWF...ECMWF
ENSEMBLE...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND 3Z SREF. WARNING OR NOT...THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

TR.92

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  48  26  39  24 /  60 100  90  10   5
WACO, TX              50  61  30  39  24 /  40  90  90  20   5
PARIS, TX             43  50  25  39  23 /  70 100  90  10   5
DENTON, TX            48  48  24  39  23 /  70 100  90  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          46  47  25  39  24 /  60 100  90  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  48  26  40  25 /  60 100  90  10   5
TERRELL, TX           49  52  27  40  23 /  50 100  90  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         51  59  31  39  25 /  40 100  90  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            52  64  30  39  25 /  30  90  80  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  50  24  38  22 /  80 100  90  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>121-131>134-143>146-156>161-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 040542 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CIGS/VIS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND TONIGHT BUT GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 1SM
AND CIGS AROUND 500FT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS
BUT THESE SHOULD BECOME FEWER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT RAIN WILL PRIMARILY DOMINATE.

AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT THE
MAJOR METROPLEX AIRPORTS BY 6PM OR SO ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INITIAL FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LITTLE TO NO INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION. AS THE EVENING GOES
ON...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION
OVER TO SLEET. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET WILL SET UP VERY NEAR THE METROPLEX DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE BAND SLIDES TO THE EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BAND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...AREAS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT WACO WITH IFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY PREVAILING. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...

CORRECTED THURSDAY TO WEDNESDAY

IN REFERENCE TO THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE HAVE LOOKED AT THE
INCOMING 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF AND ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND WORK
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE SW
TO NE ORIENTED BAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
WHICH HINGE ON THE TEMPERATURES...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
FOR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND WE SEE NO NEW DATA THAT SUGGESTS
WE NEED TO BUMP THE TIMING UP. ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR DOES OFTEN
GET HERE FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...OUR TIMING IS AHEAD OF
THE USUALLY RELIABLE RAP/NAM FORECASTS.

INDICATIONS FROM THE 0Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEING AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY SLEET WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STRONG LIFT WILL KEEP
COOLING THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND RESULT
IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WE ARE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WHERE 1-2 INCHES MAY FALL. THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY
FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO SAY JUST HOW
MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SPENT AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WOULD BE
ACCUMULATING SLEET OR SNOW. THE 21Z SREF RAISES CONCERNS THAT MORE
THAN 1 INCH OF SLEET WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND...AND THE 0Z NAM
AND HI-RES WRF MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR OVER A HALF INCH OF SLEET. A TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING THAT MAY DROP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOW WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALSO WORTH NOTING ARE THE WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL WORK TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE IN REGIONS WHERE A CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE SNOW OCCURS.

FOR THE FORECAST...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP POPS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AREAWIDE. THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE OR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE-OVER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE GOOD
SETUP...WE HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ALONG AND NW OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS. WE ARE NOW EXPECTING 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OF SLEET AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF A EASTLAND TO
DENTON TO BONHAM LINE. FOR THE LINE FROM COMANCHE TO THE METROPLEX
TO PARIS...WE ARE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND AN INCH OF SNOW.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP THE
ZONE FROM WACO TO ATHENS UP TO A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET.

WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF UPGRADING A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND IF THE 0Z GFS HAD NOT COME
IN WITH A FARTHER SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS IN
COMPARISON TO THE OTHER MODELS...WE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE HAD THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE NOW. WE WILL DEFFER ANY DECISIONS TO THE
NEXT SHIFT WHO WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE ECMWF...ECMWF
ENSEMBLE...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND 3Z SREF. WARNING OR NOT...THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

TR.92

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  48  26  39  24 /  60 100  90  10   5
WACO, TX              50  61  30  39  24 /  40  90  90  20   5
PARIS, TX             43  50  25  39  23 /  70 100  90  10   5
DENTON, TX            48  48  24  39  23 /  70 100  90  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          46  47  25  39  24 /  60 100  90  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  48  26  40  25 /  60 100  90  10   5
TERRELL, TX           49  52  27  40  23 /  50 100  90  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         51  59  31  39  25 /  40 100  90  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            52  64  30  39  25 /  30  90  80  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  50  24  38  22 /  80 100  90  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>121-131>134-143>146-156>161-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLUB 040542
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE
FROPA AND ONSET OF FROZEN PRECIP BY A COUPLE HOURS AT KPVW AND
KLBB. WE STILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS
OF 17 TO 22 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL THE
TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED
EARLY...PERHAPS SWITCHING TO ALL SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. IT IS
LIKELY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
AT 9 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF
I-40...NOT QUITE YET INTO AMARILLO. THE FRONT IS NOT MOVING
QUICKLY. THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT THROUGH
CHILDRESS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LUBBOCK AROUND 6 AM. THE
FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR YOAKUM COUNTY AROUND 11 AM.

ALOFT...THE UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...MAKING
STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS NRN BAJA. DOWNSTREAM OVER WEST
TEXAS...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET CONTINUES OVERHEAD. BUT WITH
LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...WE ARE ONLY SEEING A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. ACTIVITY IS ON THE INCREASE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THINGS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ALOFT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND THE 00 UTC NAM IS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID-
LVL UPWARD MOTION AND LOW-LVL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR
PRECIP TO BE A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SNOW AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
LIFT MAY PROVE CRITICAL...BECAUSE IF IT ARRIVES EARLIER WHEN THE
TEMP PROFILE SUPPORTS A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND SNOW...THAT MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. IF
THE LIFT COMES LATER WHEN THE PRECIP IS MORE SOLIDLY SNOW...THE
CHANCE FOR GREATER SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE. THERE IS ALSO STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS IF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER
PROVES MORE DIFFICULT TO ERODE THAN EXPECTED. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT THERE IS A
HINT OF BANDED FEATURES IN THE QPF FIELDS...SO WE COULD SEE MORE
VARIATION IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
EVENT...AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS
TIME...CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CWA LOOKS TO
BE VALID AND THE START TIME OF 3 AM LOOKS GOOD AS WELL FOR THE
COUNTIES OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA....ALTHOUGH THERE/S BEEN SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT FROM LEA
COUNTY NEWD INTO YOAKUM. THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS RUNNING FROM THE
TRANS-PECOS TO NORTH-CENTRAL TX...CUTTING ACROSS THE SE SPLNS AND
SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...THEN
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH. A
STRAY RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 5 UTC AND 11 UTC. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO IFR OR LIFR. AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WITH ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT
KLBB. NE SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  30  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  40  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  40  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  40  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

33



000
FXUS64 KFWD 040542 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CIGS/VIS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND TONIGHT BUT GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 1SM
AND CIGS AROUND 500FT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS
BUT THESE SHOULD BECOME FEWER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT RAIN WILL PRIMARILY DOMINATE.

AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT THE
MAJOR METROPLEX AIRPORTS BY 6PM OR SO ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INITIAL FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LITTLE TO NO INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION. AS THE EVENING GOES
ON...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION
OVER TO SLEET. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET WILL SET UP VERY NEAR THE METROPLEX DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE BAND SLIDES TO THE EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BAND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...AREAS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT WACO WITH IFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY PREVAILING. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...

CORRECTED THURSDAY TO WEDNESDAY

IN REFERENCE TO THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE HAVE LOOKED AT THE
INCOMING 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF AND ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND WORK
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE SW
TO NE ORIENTED BAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
WHICH HINGE ON THE TEMPERATURES...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
FOR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND WE SEE NO NEW DATA THAT SUGGESTS
WE NEED TO BUMP THE TIMING UP. ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR DOES OFTEN
GET HERE FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...OUR TIMING IS AHEAD OF
THE USUALLY RELIABLE RAP/NAM FORECASTS.

INDICATIONS FROM THE 0Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEING AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY SLEET WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STRONG LIFT WILL KEEP
COOLING THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND RESULT
IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WE ARE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WHERE 1-2 INCHES MAY FALL. THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY
FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO SAY JUST HOW
MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SPENT AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WOULD BE
ACCUMULATING SLEET OR SNOW. THE 21Z SREF RAISES CONCERNS THAT MORE
THAN 1 INCH OF SLEET WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND...AND THE 0Z NAM
AND HI-RES WRF MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR OVER A HALF INCH OF SLEET. A TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING THAT MAY DROP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOW WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALSO WORTH NOTING ARE THE WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL WORK TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE IN REGIONS WHERE A CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE SNOW OCCURS.

FOR THE FORECAST...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP POPS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AREAWIDE. THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE OR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE-OVER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE GOOD
SETUP...WE HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ALONG AND NW OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS. WE ARE NOW EXPECTING 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OF SLEET AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF A EASTLAND TO
DENTON TO BONHAM LINE. FOR THE LINE FROM COMANCHE TO THE METROPLEX
TO PARIS...WE ARE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND AN INCH OF SNOW.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP THE
ZONE FROM WACO TO ATHENS UP TO A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET.

WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF UPGRADING A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND IF THE 0Z GFS HAD NOT COME
IN WITH A FARTHER SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS IN
COMPARISON TO THE OTHER MODELS...WE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE HAD THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE NOW. WE WILL DEFFER ANY DECISIONS TO THE
NEXT SHIFT WHO WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE ECMWF...ECMWF
ENSEMBLE...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND 3Z SREF. WARNING OR NOT...THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

TR.92

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  48  26  39  24 /  60 100  90  10   5
WACO, TX              50  61  30  39  24 /  40  90  90  20   5
PARIS, TX             43  50  25  39  23 /  70 100  90  10   5
DENTON, TX            48  48  24  39  23 /  70 100  90  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          46  47  25  39  24 /  60 100  90  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  48  26  40  25 /  60 100  90  10   5
TERRELL, TX           49  52  27  40  23 /  50 100  90  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         51  59  31  39  25 /  40 100  90  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            52  64  30  39  25 /  30  90  80  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  50  24  38  22 /  80 100  90  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>121-131>134-143>146-156>161-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLUB 040542
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE
FROPA AND ONSET OF FROZEN PRECIP BY A COUPLE HOURS AT KPVW AND
KLBB. WE STILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS
OF 17 TO 22 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL THE
TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED
EARLY...PERHAPS SWITCHING TO ALL SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. IT IS
LIKELY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
AT 9 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF
I-40...NOT QUITE YET INTO AMARILLO. THE FRONT IS NOT MOVING
QUICKLY. THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT THROUGH
CHILDRESS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LUBBOCK AROUND 6 AM. THE
FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR YOAKUM COUNTY AROUND 11 AM.

ALOFT...THE UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...MAKING
STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS NRN BAJA. DOWNSTREAM OVER WEST
TEXAS...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET CONTINUES OVERHEAD. BUT WITH
LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...WE ARE ONLY SEEING A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. ACTIVITY IS ON THE INCREASE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THINGS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ALOFT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND THE 00 UTC NAM IS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID-
LVL UPWARD MOTION AND LOW-LVL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR
PRECIP TO BE A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SNOW AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
LIFT MAY PROVE CRITICAL...BECAUSE IF IT ARRIVES EARLIER WHEN THE
TEMP PROFILE SUPPORTS A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND SNOW...THAT MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. IF
THE LIFT COMES LATER WHEN THE PRECIP IS MORE SOLIDLY SNOW...THE
CHANCE FOR GREATER SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE. THERE IS ALSO STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS IF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER
PROVES MORE DIFFICULT TO ERODE THAN EXPECTED. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT THERE IS A
HINT OF BANDED FEATURES IN THE QPF FIELDS...SO WE COULD SEE MORE
VARIATION IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
EVENT...AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS
TIME...CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CWA LOOKS TO
BE VALID AND THE START TIME OF 3 AM LOOKS GOOD AS WELL FOR THE
COUNTIES OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA....ALTHOUGH THERE/S BEEN SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT FROM LEA
COUNTY NEWD INTO YOAKUM. THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS RUNNING FROM THE
TRANS-PECOS TO NORTH-CENTRAL TX...CUTTING ACROSS THE SE SPLNS AND
SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...THEN
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH. A
STRAY RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 5 UTC AND 11 UTC. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO IFR OR LIFR. AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WITH ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT
KLBB. NE SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  30  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  40  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  40  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  40  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

33



000
FXUS64 KFWD 040542 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CIGS/VIS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND TONIGHT BUT GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 1SM
AND CIGS AROUND 500FT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS
BUT THESE SHOULD BECOME FEWER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT RAIN WILL PRIMARILY DOMINATE.

AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT THE
MAJOR METROPLEX AIRPORTS BY 6PM OR SO ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INITIAL FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LITTLE TO NO INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION. AS THE EVENING GOES
ON...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION
OVER TO SLEET. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET WILL SET UP VERY NEAR THE METROPLEX DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE BAND SLIDES TO THE EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BAND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...AREAS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT WACO WITH IFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY PREVAILING. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...

CORRECTED THURSDAY TO WEDNESDAY

IN REFERENCE TO THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE HAVE LOOKED AT THE
INCOMING 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF AND ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND WORK
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE SW
TO NE ORIENTED BAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
WHICH HINGE ON THE TEMPERATURES...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
FOR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND WE SEE NO NEW DATA THAT SUGGESTS
WE NEED TO BUMP THE TIMING UP. ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR DOES OFTEN
GET HERE FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...OUR TIMING IS AHEAD OF
THE USUALLY RELIABLE RAP/NAM FORECASTS.

INDICATIONS FROM THE 0Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEING AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY SLEET WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STRONG LIFT WILL KEEP
COOLING THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND RESULT
IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WE ARE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WHERE 1-2 INCHES MAY FALL. THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY
FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO SAY JUST HOW
MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SPENT AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WOULD BE
ACCUMULATING SLEET OR SNOW. THE 21Z SREF RAISES CONCERNS THAT MORE
THAN 1 INCH OF SLEET WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND...AND THE 0Z NAM
AND HI-RES WRF MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR OVER A HALF INCH OF SLEET. A TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING THAT MAY DROP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOW WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALSO WORTH NOTING ARE THE WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL WORK TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE IN REGIONS WHERE A CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE SNOW OCCURS.

FOR THE FORECAST...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP POPS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AREAWIDE. THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE OR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE-OVER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE GOOD
SETUP...WE HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ALONG AND NW OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS. WE ARE NOW EXPECTING 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OF SLEET AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF A EASTLAND TO
DENTON TO BONHAM LINE. FOR THE LINE FROM COMANCHE TO THE METROPLEX
TO PARIS...WE ARE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND AN INCH OF SNOW.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP THE
ZONE FROM WACO TO ATHENS UP TO A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET.

WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF UPGRADING A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND IF THE 0Z GFS HAD NOT COME
IN WITH A FARTHER SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS IN
COMPARISON TO THE OTHER MODELS...WE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE HAD THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE NOW. WE WILL DEFFER ANY DECISIONS TO THE
NEXT SHIFT WHO WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE ECMWF...ECMWF
ENSEMBLE...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND 3Z SREF. WARNING OR NOT...THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

TR.92

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  48  26  39  24 /  60 100  90  10   5
WACO, TX              50  61  30  39  24 /  40  90  90  20   5
PARIS, TX             43  50  25  39  23 /  70 100  90  10   5
DENTON, TX            48  48  24  39  23 /  70 100  90  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          46  47  25  39  24 /  60 100  90  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  48  26  40  25 /  60 100  90  10   5
TERRELL, TX           49  52  27  40  23 /  50 100  90  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         51  59  31  39  25 /  40 100  90  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            52  64  30  39  25 /  30  90  80  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  50  24  38  22 /  80 100  90  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>121-131>134-143>146-156>161-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 040542 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CIGS/VIS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND TONIGHT BUT GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND 1SM
AND CIGS AROUND 500FT. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS
BUT THESE SHOULD BECOME FEWER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
WITH RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT RAIN WILL PRIMARILY DOMINATE.

AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL START TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AT THE
MAJOR METROPLEX AIRPORTS BY 6PM OR SO ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INITIAL FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LITTLE TO NO INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION. AS THE EVENING GOES
ON...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION
OVER TO SLEET. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET WILL SET UP VERY NEAR THE METROPLEX DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE BAND SLIDES TO THE EAST. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BAND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...AREAS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT WACO WITH IFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY PREVAILING. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...

CORRECTED THURSDAY TO WEDNESDAY

IN REFERENCE TO THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE HAVE LOOKED AT THE
INCOMING 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF AND ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND WORK
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE SW
TO NE ORIENTED BAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
WHICH HINGE ON THE TEMPERATURES...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
FOR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND WE SEE NO NEW DATA THAT SUGGESTS
WE NEED TO BUMP THE TIMING UP. ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR DOES OFTEN
GET HERE FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...OUR TIMING IS AHEAD OF
THE USUALLY RELIABLE RAP/NAM FORECASTS.

INDICATIONS FROM THE 0Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEING AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY SLEET WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STRONG LIFT WILL KEEP
COOLING THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND RESULT
IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WE ARE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WHERE 1-2 INCHES MAY FALL. THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY
FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO SAY JUST HOW
MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SPENT AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WOULD BE
ACCUMULATING SLEET OR SNOW. THE 21Z SREF RAISES CONCERNS THAT MORE
THAN 1 INCH OF SLEET WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND...AND THE 0Z NAM
AND HI-RES WRF MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR OVER A HALF INCH OF SLEET. A TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING THAT MAY DROP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOW WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALSO WORTH NOTING ARE THE WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL WORK TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE IN REGIONS WHERE A CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE SNOW OCCURS.

FOR THE FORECAST...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP POPS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AREAWIDE. THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE OR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE-OVER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE GOOD
SETUP...WE HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ALONG AND NW OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS. WE ARE NOW EXPECTING 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OF SLEET AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF A EASTLAND TO
DENTON TO BONHAM LINE. FOR THE LINE FROM COMANCHE TO THE METROPLEX
TO PARIS...WE ARE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND AN INCH OF SNOW.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP THE
ZONE FROM WACO TO ATHENS UP TO A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET.

WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF UPGRADING A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND IF THE 0Z GFS HAD NOT COME
IN WITH A FARTHER SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS IN
COMPARISON TO THE OTHER MODELS...WE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE HAD THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE NOW. WE WILL DEFFER ANY DECISIONS TO THE
NEXT SHIFT WHO WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE ECMWF...ECMWF
ENSEMBLE...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND 3Z SREF. WARNING OR NOT...THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

TR.92

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  48  26  39  24 /  60 100  90  10   5
WACO, TX              50  61  30  39  24 /  40  90  90  20   5
PARIS, TX             43  50  25  39  23 /  70 100  90  10   5
DENTON, TX            48  48  24  39  23 /  70 100  90  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          46  47  25  39  24 /  60 100  90  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  48  26  40  25 /  60 100  90  10   5
TERRELL, TX           49  52  27  40  23 /  50 100  90  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         51  59  31  39  25 /  40 100  90  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            52  64  30  39  25 /  30  90  80  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  50  24  38  22 /  80 100  90  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>121-131>134-143>146-156>161-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KEWX 040542 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
CIGS/VBSYS ARE AT IFR CATEGORY BUT NOT FOR LONG. AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WIND DIE DOWN. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES. THEREFORE...EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS. ALSO...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
MOST GRID EDITS WERE MADE TO HOURLY T AND DEWT TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED FOG MENTION INTO DIMMITT COUNTY. EXPECTING
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. AT THE MOMENT...ONLY PATCHY DENSE IS BEING OBSERVED
SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FIRST.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT OUT WEST...AREA TERMINALS ARE IN
IFR CATEGORY AND EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO BECOME DENSE
OVERNIGHT WITH VBSYS LOWERING TO VLIFR PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH VBSYS
IMPROVING A BIT BUT LIFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ALONG THE I35 SITES AROUND 22Z/23Z. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           57  76  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99




000
FXUS64 KEWX 040542 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
CIGS/VBSYS ARE AT IFR CATEGORY BUT NOT FOR LONG. AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WIND DIE DOWN. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
CAN`T BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES. THEREFORE...EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS
ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS. ALSO...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
MOST GRID EDITS WERE MADE TO HOURLY T AND DEWT TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED FOG MENTION INTO DIMMITT COUNTY. EXPECTING
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. AT THE MOMENT...ONLY PATCHY DENSE IS BEING OBSERVED
SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FIRST.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT OUT WEST...AREA TERMINALS ARE IN
IFR CATEGORY AND EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO BECOME DENSE
OVERNIGHT WITH VBSYS LOWERING TO VLIFR PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH VBSYS
IMPROVING A BIT BUT LIFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ALONG THE I35 SITES AROUND 22Z/23Z. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           57  76  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...99



000
FXUS64 KLUB 040542
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE
FROPA AND ONSET OF FROZEN PRECIP BY A COUPLE HOURS AT KPVW AND
KLBB. WE STILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS
OF 17 TO 22 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL THE
TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED
EARLY...PERHAPS SWITCHING TO ALL SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. IT IS
LIKELY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
AT 9 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF
I-40...NOT QUITE YET INTO AMARILLO. THE FRONT IS NOT MOVING
QUICKLY. THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT THROUGH
CHILDRESS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LUBBOCK AROUND 6 AM. THE
FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR YOAKUM COUNTY AROUND 11 AM.

ALOFT...THE UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...MAKING
STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS NRN BAJA. DOWNSTREAM OVER WEST
TEXAS...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET CONTINUES OVERHEAD. BUT WITH
LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...WE ARE ONLY SEEING A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. ACTIVITY IS ON THE INCREASE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THINGS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ALOFT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND THE 00 UTC NAM IS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID-
LVL UPWARD MOTION AND LOW-LVL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR
PRECIP TO BE A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SNOW AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
LIFT MAY PROVE CRITICAL...BECAUSE IF IT ARRIVES EARLIER WHEN THE
TEMP PROFILE SUPPORTS A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND SNOW...THAT MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. IF
THE LIFT COMES LATER WHEN THE PRECIP IS MORE SOLIDLY SNOW...THE
CHANCE FOR GREATER SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE. THERE IS ALSO STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS IF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER
PROVES MORE DIFFICULT TO ERODE THAN EXPECTED. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT THERE IS A
HINT OF BANDED FEATURES IN THE QPF FIELDS...SO WE COULD SEE MORE
VARIATION IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
EVENT...AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS
TIME...CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CWA LOOKS TO
BE VALID AND THE START TIME OF 3 AM LOOKS GOOD AS WELL FOR THE
COUNTIES OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA....ALTHOUGH THERE/S BEEN SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT FROM LEA
COUNTY NEWD INTO YOAKUM. THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS RUNNING FROM THE
TRANS-PECOS TO NORTH-CENTRAL TX...CUTTING ACROSS THE SE SPLNS AND
SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...THEN
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH. A
STRAY RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 5 UTC AND 11 UTC. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO IFR OR LIFR. AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WITH ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT
KLBB. NE SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  30  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  40  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  40  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  40  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

33



000
FXUS64 KLUB 040542
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE
FROPA AND ONSET OF FROZEN PRECIP BY A COUPLE HOURS AT KPVW AND
KLBB. WE STILL EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS
OF 17 TO 22 KTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL THE
TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED
EARLY...PERHAPS SWITCHING TO ALL SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. IT IS
LIKELY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
AT 9 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF
I-40...NOT QUITE YET INTO AMARILLO. THE FRONT IS NOT MOVING
QUICKLY. THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT THROUGH
CHILDRESS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LUBBOCK AROUND 6 AM. THE
FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR YOAKUM COUNTY AROUND 11 AM.

ALOFT...THE UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...MAKING
STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS NRN BAJA. DOWNSTREAM OVER WEST
TEXAS...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET CONTINUES OVERHEAD. BUT WITH
LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...WE ARE ONLY SEEING A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. ACTIVITY IS ON THE INCREASE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THINGS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ALOFT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND THE 00 UTC NAM IS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID-
LVL UPWARD MOTION AND LOW-LVL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR
PRECIP TO BE A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SNOW AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
LIFT MAY PROVE CRITICAL...BECAUSE IF IT ARRIVES EARLIER WHEN THE
TEMP PROFILE SUPPORTS A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND SNOW...THAT MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. IF
THE LIFT COMES LATER WHEN THE PRECIP IS MORE SOLIDLY SNOW...THE
CHANCE FOR GREATER SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE. THERE IS ALSO STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS IF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER
PROVES MORE DIFFICULT TO ERODE THAN EXPECTED. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT THERE IS A
HINT OF BANDED FEATURES IN THE QPF FIELDS...SO WE COULD SEE MORE
VARIATION IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
EVENT...AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS
TIME...CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CWA LOOKS TO
BE VALID AND THE START TIME OF 3 AM LOOKS GOOD AS WELL FOR THE
COUNTIES OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA....ALTHOUGH THERE/S BEEN SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT FROM LEA
COUNTY NEWD INTO YOAKUM. THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS RUNNING FROM THE
TRANS-PECOS TO NORTH-CENTRAL TX...CUTTING ACROSS THE SE SPLNS AND
SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...THEN
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH. A
STRAY RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 5 UTC AND 11 UTC. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO IFR OR LIFR. AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WITH ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT
KLBB. NE SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  30  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  40  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  40  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  40  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS64 KMAF 040524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 04/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Still looks like a mess in the upcoming 24 hours, but timing of
fropa and onset of precip, as well as the changeover from liquid
through freezing to frozen appear to be just a smidge more certain.
Opted for a faster (by 2-3 hr) frontal movement in the am, with
the cold front hitting the I-20 corridor around 15z and down to
the I-10 corridor by 17z. Initially, post-frontal stratus and a
sharp (and I mean sharp) windshift to the northeast with gusts
over 25kts can be expected, then rain should begin to fall as a
lift associated with a minor shortwave trough provides the
impetus. The question now becomes one of precip phase and timing.
Again, going with a faster frontal movement accelerates things
some. At KCNM and KHOB, BUFR soundings suggest a low potential of
freezing, so at these sites the cutover to SN should be in the
early evening hours. Further south, the warm nose above the
front looks to be sufficient to melt snow into rain, but the cold
layer underneath the frontal inversion shallow enough to keep rain
from freezing into IP. At KMAF, KINK, KFST, and KPEQ, a cutover to
freezing rain looks to occur around 05/00Z, then over to snow a
couple of hours later. As one might expect, cigs and vsbys will be
in the IFR to LIFR categories occasionally. Although there`s a bit
of elevated instability evident across the eastern Permian Basin
Wednesday afternoon/evening, there doesn`t appear to be sufficient
uvv in the charging layer to gin up thunder.

All things are subject to change.  Stay tuned.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

70

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http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 040524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 04/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Still looks like a mess in the upcoming 24 hours, but timing of
fropa and onset of precip, as well as the changeover from liquid
through freezing to frozen appear to be just a smidge more certain.
Opted for a faster (by 2-3 hr) frontal movement in the am, with
the cold front hitting the I-20 corridor around 15z and down to
the I-10 corridor by 17z. Initially, post-frontal stratus and a
sharp (and I mean sharp) windshift to the northeast with gusts
over 25kts can be expected, then rain should begin to fall as a
lift associated with a minor shortwave trough provides the
impetus. The question now becomes one of precip phase and timing.
Again, going with a faster frontal movement accelerates things
some. At KCNM and KHOB, BUFR soundings suggest a low potential of
freezing, so at these sites the cutover to SN should be in the
early evening hours. Further south, the warm nose above the
front looks to be sufficient to melt snow into rain, but the cold
layer underneath the frontal inversion shallow enough to keep rain
from freezing into IP. At KMAF, KINK, KFST, and KPEQ, a cutover to
freezing rain looks to occur around 05/00Z, then over to snow a
couple of hours later. As one might expect, cigs and vsbys will be
in the IFR to LIFR categories occasionally. Although there`s a bit
of elevated instability evident across the eastern Permian Basin
Wednesday afternoon/evening, there doesn`t appear to be sufficient
uvv in the charging layer to gin up thunder.

All things are subject to change.  Stay tuned.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 040524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 04/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Still looks like a mess in the upcoming 24 hours, but timing of
fropa and onset of precip, as well as the changeover from liquid
through freezing to frozen appear to be just a smidge more certain.
Opted for a faster (by 2-3 hr) frontal movement in the am, with
the cold front hitting the I-20 corridor around 15z and down to
the I-10 corridor by 17z. Initially, post-frontal stratus and a
sharp (and I mean sharp) windshift to the northeast with gusts
over 25kts can be expected, then rain should begin to fall as a
lift associated with a minor shortwave trough provides the
impetus. The question now becomes one of precip phase and timing.
Again, going with a faster frontal movement accelerates things
some. At KCNM and KHOB, BUFR soundings suggest a low potential of
freezing, so at these sites the cutover to SN should be in the
early evening hours. Further south, the warm nose above the
front looks to be sufficient to melt snow into rain, but the cold
layer underneath the frontal inversion shallow enough to keep rain
from freezing into IP. At KMAF, KINK, KFST, and KPEQ, a cutover to
freezing rain looks to occur around 05/00Z, then over to snow a
couple of hours later. As one might expect, cigs and vsbys will be
in the IFR to LIFR categories occasionally. Although there`s a bit
of elevated instability evident across the eastern Permian Basin
Wednesday afternoon/evening, there doesn`t appear to be sufficient
uvv in the charging layer to gin up thunder.

All things are subject to change.  Stay tuned.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 040524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1124 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 04/06Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Still looks like a mess in the upcoming 24 hours, but timing of
fropa and onset of precip, as well as the changeover from liquid
through freezing to frozen appear to be just a smidge more certain.
Opted for a faster (by 2-3 hr) frontal movement in the am, with
the cold front hitting the I-20 corridor around 15z and down to
the I-10 corridor by 17z. Initially, post-frontal stratus and a
sharp (and I mean sharp) windshift to the northeast with gusts
over 25kts can be expected, then rain should begin to fall as a
lift associated with a minor shortwave trough provides the
impetus. The question now becomes one of precip phase and timing.
Again, going with a faster frontal movement accelerates things
some. At KCNM and KHOB, BUFR soundings suggest a low potential of
freezing, so at these sites the cutover to SN should be in the
early evening hours. Further south, the warm nose above the
front looks to be sufficient to melt snow into rain, but the cold
layer underneath the frontal inversion shallow enough to keep rain
from freezing into IP. At KMAF, KINK, KFST, and KPEQ, a cutover to
freezing rain looks to occur around 05/00Z, then over to snow a
couple of hours later. As one might expect, cigs and vsbys will be
in the IFR to LIFR categories occasionally. Although there`s a bit
of elevated instability evident across the eastern Permian Basin
Wednesday afternoon/evening, there doesn`t appear to be sufficient
uvv in the charging layer to gin up thunder.

All things are subject to change.  Stay tuned.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

70

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 040508 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1108 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE IFR RANGE AT ALL SITES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY SUNRISE. THEN WINDS WILL DECREASE
TOWARD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GO DOWNHILL BOTH IN THE CEILING
DEPARTMENT AND THE VISIBILITY DEPARTMENT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD VISIT
THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES FIRST...MAYBE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN THE
RAIN SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE IN THESE AREAS. SNOW
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT IT COULD SHUT OFF AT GUY
BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

AT AMA...CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SNOW TOWARD
SUNRISE. THEN SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL TAF STIES OVERNIGHT AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
THESE TWO FEATURES IN PHASE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
TONIGHT. A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS HAS
ALREADY FORCED A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
HANDLED THESE SCENARIOS PARTICULARLY WELL LATELY WITH A TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER INTRUSION OF COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IN ADDITION TO
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH STREAMING THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
MARKEDLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION AND EXTENSIVENESS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ICE CRYSTAL INTRODUCTION INITIALLY
WITH 12Z NAM TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT TOMORROW THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND FOR POTENTIALLY LOWER
AMOUNTS THAT CURRENT IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW SNOW ACCUMULATION
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
MORE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE DURATION OF MIX PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD LAST LONGER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND POSSIBLY SLEET. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW COLD SUB-FREEZING LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET. COLUMN COOLING WITH CONTINUED
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE NORTH AND BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE SOUTH.

OUR GUESS AT TIMING IS DETAILED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
PRODUCT WHICH HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO SEGMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION. IMPACT FROM TRAVEL MAY OCCUR INITIALLY
FROM THE COMBINATION OF RAIN PRECEDING THE COLD SURGE THAT FREEZES ON
ROAD SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 20S...AND A PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT MAY HAPPEN UNTIL SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT
OCCURS FOR ALL SNOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION INCLUDING
SNOW PACKED ROADS INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. 20-25
KNOT POST FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AS RATIOS INCREASE
LATER IN THE EVENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXTENDED THEN WITH THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW FAR EAST THE
UPPER RIDGE CAN BUILD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
CONSEQUENTLY HOW WARM WE WILL BE. TEMPERATURE SHOULD REACH AT LEAST
NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MARCH BY THE WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 040508 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1108 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE IFR RANGE AT ALL SITES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY SUNRISE. THEN WINDS WILL DECREASE
TOWARD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GO DOWNHILL BOTH IN THE CEILING
DEPARTMENT AND THE VISIBILITY DEPARTMENT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD VISIT
THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES FIRST...MAYBE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN THE
RAIN SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE IN THESE AREAS. SNOW
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT IT COULD SHUT OFF AT GUY
BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

AT AMA...CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SNOW TOWARD
SUNRISE. THEN SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL TAF STIES OVERNIGHT AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
THESE TWO FEATURES IN PHASE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
TONIGHT. A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS HAS
ALREADY FORCED A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
HANDLED THESE SCENARIOS PARTICULARLY WELL LATELY WITH A TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER INTRUSION OF COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IN ADDITION TO
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH STREAMING THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
MARKEDLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION AND EXTENSIVENESS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ICE CRYSTAL INTRODUCTION INITIALLY
WITH 12Z NAM TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT TOMORROW THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND FOR POTENTIALLY LOWER
AMOUNTS THAT CURRENT IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW SNOW ACCUMULATION
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
MORE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE DURATION OF MIX PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD LAST LONGER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND POSSIBLY SLEET. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW COLD SUB-FREEZING LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET. COLUMN COOLING WITH CONTINUED
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE NORTH AND BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE SOUTH.

OUR GUESS AT TIMING IS DETAILED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
PRODUCT WHICH HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO SEGMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION. IMPACT FROM TRAVEL MAY OCCUR INITIALLY
FROM THE COMBINATION OF RAIN PRECEDING THE COLD SURGE THAT FREEZES ON
ROAD SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 20S...AND A PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT MAY HAPPEN UNTIL SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT
OCCURS FOR ALL SNOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION INCLUDING
SNOW PACKED ROADS INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. 20-25
KNOT POST FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AS RATIOS INCREASE
LATER IN THE EVENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXTENDED THEN WITH THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW FAR EAST THE
UPPER RIDGE CAN BUILD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
CONSEQUENTLY HOW WARM WE WILL BE. TEMPERATURE SHOULD REACH AT LEAST
NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MARCH BY THE WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 040508 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1108 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE IFR RANGE AT ALL SITES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY SUNRISE. THEN WINDS WILL DECREASE
TOWARD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GO DOWNHILL BOTH IN THE CEILING
DEPARTMENT AND THE VISIBILITY DEPARTMENT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD VISIT
THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES FIRST...MAYBE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN THE
RAIN SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE IN THESE AREAS. SNOW
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT IT COULD SHUT OFF AT GUY
BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

AT AMA...CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SNOW TOWARD
SUNRISE. THEN SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL TAF STIES OVERNIGHT AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
THESE TWO FEATURES IN PHASE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
TONIGHT. A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS HAS
ALREADY FORCED A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
HANDLED THESE SCENARIOS PARTICULARLY WELL LATELY WITH A TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER INTRUSION OF COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IN ADDITION TO
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH STREAMING THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
MARKEDLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION AND EXTENSIVENESS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ICE CRYSTAL INTRODUCTION INITIALLY
WITH 12Z NAM TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT TOMORROW THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND FOR POTENTIALLY LOWER
AMOUNTS THAT CURRENT IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW SNOW ACCUMULATION
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
MORE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE DURATION OF MIX PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD LAST LONGER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND POSSIBLY SLEET. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW COLD SUB-FREEZING LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET. COLUMN COOLING WITH CONTINUED
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE NORTH AND BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE SOUTH.

OUR GUESS AT TIMING IS DETAILED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
PRODUCT WHICH HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO SEGMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION. IMPACT FROM TRAVEL MAY OCCUR INITIALLY
FROM THE COMBINATION OF RAIN PRECEDING THE COLD SURGE THAT FREEZES ON
ROAD SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 20S...AND A PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT MAY HAPPEN UNTIL SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT
OCCURS FOR ALL SNOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION INCLUDING
SNOW PACKED ROADS INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. 20-25
KNOT POST FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AS RATIOS INCREASE
LATER IN THE EVENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXTENDED THEN WITH THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW FAR EAST THE
UPPER RIDGE CAN BUILD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
CONSEQUENTLY HOW WARM WE WILL BE. TEMPERATURE SHOULD REACH AT LEAST
NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MARCH BY THE WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 040508 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1108 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE IFR RANGE AT ALL SITES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY SUNRISE. THEN WINDS WILL DECREASE
TOWARD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GO DOWNHILL BOTH IN THE CEILING
DEPARTMENT AND THE VISIBILITY DEPARTMENT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD VISIT
THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES FIRST...MAYBE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN THE
RAIN SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE IN THESE AREAS. SNOW
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT IT COULD SHUT OFF AT GUY
BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

AT AMA...CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SNOW TOWARD
SUNRISE. THEN SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL TAF STIES OVERNIGHT AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
THESE TWO FEATURES IN PHASE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
TONIGHT. A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS HAS
ALREADY FORCED A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
HANDLED THESE SCENARIOS PARTICULARLY WELL LATELY WITH A TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER INTRUSION OF COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IN ADDITION TO
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH STREAMING THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
MARKEDLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION AND EXTENSIVENESS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ICE CRYSTAL INTRODUCTION INITIALLY
WITH 12Z NAM TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT TOMORROW THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND FOR POTENTIALLY LOWER
AMOUNTS THAT CURRENT IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW SNOW ACCUMULATION
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
MORE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE DURATION OF MIX PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD LAST LONGER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND POSSIBLY SLEET. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW COLD SUB-FREEZING LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET. COLUMN COOLING WITH CONTINUED
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE NORTH AND BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE SOUTH.

OUR GUESS AT TIMING IS DETAILED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
PRODUCT WHICH HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO SEGMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION. IMPACT FROM TRAVEL MAY OCCUR INITIALLY
FROM THE COMBINATION OF RAIN PRECEDING THE COLD SURGE THAT FREEZES ON
ROAD SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 20S...AND A PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT MAY HAPPEN UNTIL SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT
OCCURS FOR ALL SNOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION INCLUDING
SNOW PACKED ROADS INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. 20-25
KNOT POST FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AS RATIOS INCREASE
LATER IN THE EVENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXTENDED THEN WITH THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW FAR EAST THE
UPPER RIDGE CAN BUILD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
CONSEQUENTLY HOW WARM WE WILL BE. TEMPERATURE SHOULD REACH AT LEAST
NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MARCH BY THE WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 040508 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1108 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE IFR RANGE AT ALL SITES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY SUNRISE. THEN WINDS WILL DECREASE
TOWARD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GO DOWNHILL BOTH IN THE CEILING
DEPARTMENT AND THE VISIBILITY DEPARTMENT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD VISIT
THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES FIRST...MAYBE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN THE
RAIN SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE IN THESE AREAS. SNOW
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT IT COULD SHUT OFF AT GUY
BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

AT AMA...CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SNOW TOWARD
SUNRISE. THEN SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL TAF STIES OVERNIGHT AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
THESE TWO FEATURES IN PHASE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
TONIGHT. A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS HAS
ALREADY FORCED A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
HANDLED THESE SCENARIOS PARTICULARLY WELL LATELY WITH A TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER INTRUSION OF COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IN ADDITION TO
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH STREAMING THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
MARKEDLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION AND EXTENSIVENESS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ICE CRYSTAL INTRODUCTION INITIALLY
WITH 12Z NAM TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT TOMORROW THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND FOR POTENTIALLY LOWER
AMOUNTS THAT CURRENT IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW SNOW ACCUMULATION
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
MORE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE DURATION OF MIX PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD LAST LONGER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND POSSIBLY SLEET. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW COLD SUB-FREEZING LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET. COLUMN COOLING WITH CONTINUED
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE NORTH AND BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE SOUTH.

OUR GUESS AT TIMING IS DETAILED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
PRODUCT WHICH HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO SEGMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION. IMPACT FROM TRAVEL MAY OCCUR INITIALLY
FROM THE COMBINATION OF RAIN PRECEDING THE COLD SURGE THAT FREEZES ON
ROAD SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 20S...AND A PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT MAY HAPPEN UNTIL SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT
OCCURS FOR ALL SNOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION INCLUDING
SNOW PACKED ROADS INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. 20-25
KNOT POST FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AS RATIOS INCREASE
LATER IN THE EVENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXTENDED THEN WITH THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW FAR EAST THE
UPPER RIDGE CAN BUILD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
CONSEQUENTLY HOW WARM WE WILL BE. TEMPERATURE SHOULD REACH AT LEAST
NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MARCH BY THE WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/18





000
FXUS64 KAMA 040508 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1108 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE IFR RANGE AT ALL SITES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY SUNRISE. THEN WINDS WILL DECREASE
TOWARD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GO DOWNHILL BOTH IN THE CEILING
DEPARTMENT AND THE VISIBILITY DEPARTMENT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD VISIT
THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES FIRST...MAYBE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN THE
RAIN SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE IN THESE AREAS. SNOW
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT IT COULD SHUT OFF AT GUY
BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

AT AMA...CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SNOW TOWARD
SUNRISE. THEN SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL TAF STIES OVERNIGHT AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
THESE TWO FEATURES IN PHASE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
TONIGHT. A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS HAS
ALREADY FORCED A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
HANDLED THESE SCENARIOS PARTICULARLY WELL LATELY WITH A TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER INTRUSION OF COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IN ADDITION TO
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH STREAMING THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
MARKEDLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION AND EXTENSIVENESS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ICE CRYSTAL INTRODUCTION INITIALLY
WITH 12Z NAM TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT TOMORROW THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND FOR POTENTIALLY LOWER
AMOUNTS THAT CURRENT IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW SNOW ACCUMULATION
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
MORE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE DURATION OF MIX PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD LAST LONGER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND POSSIBLY SLEET. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW COLD SUB-FREEZING LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET. COLUMN COOLING WITH CONTINUED
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE NORTH AND BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE SOUTH.

OUR GUESS AT TIMING IS DETAILED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
PRODUCT WHICH HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO SEGMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION. IMPACT FROM TRAVEL MAY OCCUR INITIALLY
FROM THE COMBINATION OF RAIN PRECEDING THE COLD SURGE THAT FREEZES ON
ROAD SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 20S...AND A PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT MAY HAPPEN UNTIL SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT
OCCURS FOR ALL SNOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION INCLUDING
SNOW PACKED ROADS INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. 20-25
KNOT POST FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AS RATIOS INCREASE
LATER IN THE EVENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXTENDED THEN WITH THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW FAR EAST THE
UPPER RIDGE CAN BUILD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
CONSEQUENTLY HOW WARM WE WILL BE. TEMPERATURE SHOULD REACH AT LEAST
NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MARCH BY THE WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...
     SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/18





000
FXUS64 KCRP 040454 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1054 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLUGGISHLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MOST OF THE COASTAL BEND. BUT AFTER MOVING
THROUGH LRD EARLIER...IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED BACK TO THE
SOUTH OF LRD AREA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPS. FLUCTUATIONS
IN VSBYS HAS OCCURRED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS STRONGER WINDS HAVE
PUSHED IN ADVECTION FOG. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. BUT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUATION OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO IFR
BY 15-16Z...THEN MVFR BY 18-19Z FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH VFR
CONDS FOR LRD. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY 21Z
WED...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE VCT AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE STORNG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY 01Z AND REACH LRD/VCT BY 02Z AND ALI/CRP AREAS BY 03Z
WITH IFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURING WITH THE FRONT ALONG
WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...A MIX OF FOG AND LOW CLOUD DECK ARE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS CURRENTLY. WARM BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHING INLAND HAS ALLOWED
FOR MORE S TO SE WINDS TO DEVELOP FROM VCT TO CRP TO LRD. N TO NE
FLOW REMAIN AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES (UPPER 50S
THERE). ALONG THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
PERSISTING. SMALLER AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BRIEFLY PUSHED INLAND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...BEFORE QUICKLY THINNING AGAIN.
THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN ALONG THE COAST (WITH
JUST PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS)...GENERALLY EXPECT FOG TO
REMAIN ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...WITH
MAINLY A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INLAND AND AREAS OF FOG
ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH IN THIS
VARIABLE KIND OF SITUATION...AND CANNOT RULE OUT ANY FUTURE
UPDATES OVERNIGHT FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. THAT SAID...DO EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO LINGER OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS
WARMER...MOIST AIR PUSHES OVER THE COOLER WATERS. MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  77  38  42  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
VICTORIA          62  73  35  39  33  /  20  30  60  20  10
LAREDO            61  81  39  43  38  /  10  10  60  20  10
ALICE             62  79  37  41  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
ROCKPORT          61  70  38  43  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
COTULLA           58  78  36  44  35  /  20  30  60  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  81  38  42  38  /  20  20  60  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  71  39  43  38  /  20  20  60  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 040454 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1054 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLUGGISHLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MOST OF THE COASTAL BEND. BUT AFTER MOVING
THROUGH LRD EARLIER...IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED BACK TO THE
SOUTH OF LRD AREA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPS. FLUCTUATIONS
IN VSBYS HAS OCCURRED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS STRONGER WINDS HAVE
PUSHED IN ADVECTION FOG. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. BUT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUATION OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO IFR
BY 15-16Z...THEN MVFR BY 18-19Z FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH VFR
CONDS FOR LRD. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY 21Z
WED...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE VCT AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE STORNG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY 01Z AND REACH LRD/VCT BY 02Z AND ALI/CRP AREAS BY 03Z
WITH IFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURING WITH THE FRONT ALONG
WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...A MIX OF FOG AND LOW CLOUD DECK ARE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS CURRENTLY. WARM BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHING INLAND HAS ALLOWED
FOR MORE S TO SE WINDS TO DEVELOP FROM VCT TO CRP TO LRD. N TO NE
FLOW REMAIN AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES (UPPER 50S
THERE). ALONG THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
PERSISTING. SMALLER AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BRIEFLY PUSHED INLAND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...BEFORE QUICKLY THINNING AGAIN.
THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN ALONG THE COAST (WITH
JUST PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS)...GENERALLY EXPECT FOG TO
REMAIN ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...WITH
MAINLY A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INLAND AND AREAS OF FOG
ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH IN THIS
VARIABLE KIND OF SITUATION...AND CANNOT RULE OUT ANY FUTURE
UPDATES OVERNIGHT FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. THAT SAID...DO EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO LINGER OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS
WARMER...MOIST AIR PUSHES OVER THE COOLER WATERS. MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  77  38  42  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
VICTORIA          62  73  35  39  33  /  20  30  60  20  10
LAREDO            61  81  39  43  38  /  10  10  60  20  10
ALICE             62  79  37  41  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
ROCKPORT          61  70  38  43  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
COTULLA           58  78  36  44  35  /  20  30  60  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  81  38  42  38  /  20  20  60  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  71  39  43  38  /  20  20  60  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 040454 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1054 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLUGGISHLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MOST OF THE COASTAL BEND. BUT AFTER MOVING
THROUGH LRD EARLIER...IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED BACK TO THE
SOUTH OF LRD AREA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPS. FLUCTUATIONS
IN VSBYS HAS OCCURRED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS STRONGER WINDS HAVE
PUSHED IN ADVECTION FOG. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. BUT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUATION OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO IFR
BY 15-16Z...THEN MVFR BY 18-19Z FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH VFR
CONDS FOR LRD. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY 21Z
WED...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE VCT AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE STORNG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY 01Z AND REACH LRD/VCT BY 02Z AND ALI/CRP AREAS BY 03Z
WITH IFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURING WITH THE FRONT ALONG
WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...A MIX OF FOG AND LOW CLOUD DECK ARE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS CURRENTLY. WARM BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHING INLAND HAS ALLOWED
FOR MORE S TO SE WINDS TO DEVELOP FROM VCT TO CRP TO LRD. N TO NE
FLOW REMAIN AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES (UPPER 50S
THERE). ALONG THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
PERSISTING. SMALLER AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BRIEFLY PUSHED INLAND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...BEFORE QUICKLY THINNING AGAIN.
THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN ALONG THE COAST (WITH
JUST PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS)...GENERALLY EXPECT FOG TO
REMAIN ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...WITH
MAINLY A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INLAND AND AREAS OF FOG
ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH IN THIS
VARIABLE KIND OF SITUATION...AND CANNOT RULE OUT ANY FUTURE
UPDATES OVERNIGHT FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. THAT SAID...DO EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO LINGER OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS
WARMER...MOIST AIR PUSHES OVER THE COOLER WATERS. MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  77  38  42  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
VICTORIA          62  73  35  39  33  /  20  30  60  20  10
LAREDO            61  81  39  43  38  /  10  10  60  20  10
ALICE             62  79  37  41  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
ROCKPORT          61  70  38  43  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
COTULLA           58  78  36  44  35  /  20  30  60  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  81  38  42  38  /  20  20  60  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  71  39  43  38  /  20  20  60  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 040454 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1054 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLUGGISHLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MOST OF THE COASTAL BEND. BUT AFTER MOVING
THROUGH LRD EARLIER...IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED BACK TO THE
SOUTH OF LRD AREA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPS. FLUCTUATIONS
IN VSBYS HAS OCCURRED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS STRONGER WINDS HAVE
PUSHED IN ADVECTION FOG. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. BUT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUATION OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO IFR
BY 15-16Z...THEN MVFR BY 18-19Z FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH VFR
CONDS FOR LRD. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY 21Z
WED...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE VCT AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE STORNG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY 01Z AND REACH LRD/VCT BY 02Z AND ALI/CRP AREAS BY 03Z
WITH IFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURING WITH THE FRONT ALONG
WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...A MIX OF FOG AND LOW CLOUD DECK ARE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS CURRENTLY. WARM BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHING INLAND HAS ALLOWED
FOR MORE S TO SE WINDS TO DEVELOP FROM VCT TO CRP TO LRD. N TO NE
FLOW REMAIN AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES (UPPER 50S
THERE). ALONG THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
PERSISTING. SMALLER AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BRIEFLY PUSHED INLAND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...BEFORE QUICKLY THINNING AGAIN.
THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN ALONG THE COAST (WITH
JUST PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS)...GENERALLY EXPECT FOG TO
REMAIN ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...WITH
MAINLY A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INLAND AND AREAS OF FOG
ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH IN THIS
VARIABLE KIND OF SITUATION...AND CANNOT RULE OUT ANY FUTURE
UPDATES OVERNIGHT FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. THAT SAID...DO EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO LINGER OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS
WARMER...MOIST AIR PUSHES OVER THE COOLER WATERS. MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  77  38  42  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
VICTORIA          62  73  35  39  33  /  20  30  60  20  10
LAREDO            61  81  39  43  38  /  10  10  60  20  10
ALICE             62  79  37  41  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
ROCKPORT          61  70  38  43  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
COTULLA           58  78  36  44  35  /  20  30  60  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  81  38  42  38  /  20  20  60  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  71  39  43  38  /  20  20  60  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 040454 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1054 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SLUGGISHLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MOST OF THE COASTAL BEND. BUT AFTER MOVING
THROUGH LRD EARLIER...IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED BACK TO THE
SOUTH OF LRD AREA WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPS. FLUCTUATIONS
IN VSBYS HAS OCCURRED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS STRONGER WINDS HAVE
PUSHED IN ADVECTION FOG. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. BUT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUATION OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO IFR
BY 15-16Z...THEN MVFR BY 18-19Z FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH VFR
CONDS FOR LRD. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY 21Z
WED...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE VCT AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE STORNG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY 01Z AND REACH LRD/VCT BY 02Z AND ALI/CRP AREAS BY 03Z
WITH IFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURING WITH THE FRONT ALONG
WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...A MIX OF FOG AND LOW CLOUD DECK ARE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS CURRENTLY. WARM BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHING INLAND HAS ALLOWED
FOR MORE S TO SE WINDS TO DEVELOP FROM VCT TO CRP TO LRD. N TO NE
FLOW REMAIN AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES (UPPER 50S
THERE). ALONG THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
PERSISTING. SMALLER AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BRIEFLY PUSHED INLAND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...BEFORE QUICKLY THINNING AGAIN.
THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN ALONG THE COAST (WITH
JUST PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS)...GENERALLY EXPECT FOG TO
REMAIN ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...WITH
MAINLY A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INLAND AND AREAS OF FOG
ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH IN THIS
VARIABLE KIND OF SITUATION...AND CANNOT RULE OUT ANY FUTURE
UPDATES OVERNIGHT FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. THAT SAID...DO EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO LINGER OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS
WARMER...MOIST AIR PUSHES OVER THE COOLER WATERS. MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  77  38  42  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
VICTORIA          62  73  35  39  33  /  20  30  60  20  10
LAREDO            61  81  39  43  38  /  10  10  60  20  10
ALICE             62  79  37  41  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
ROCKPORT          61  70  38  43  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
COTULLA           58  78  36  44  35  /  20  30  60  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  81  38  42  38  /  20  20  60  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  71  39  43  38  /  20  20  60  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KFWD 040408
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1008 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

CORRECTED THURSDAY TO WEDNESDAY

IN REFERENCE TO THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE HAVE LOOKED AT THE
INCOMING 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF AND ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND WORK
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE SW
TO NE ORIENTED BAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
WHICH HINGE ON THE TEMPERATURES...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
FOR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND WE SEE NO NEW DATA THAT SUGGESTS
WE NEED TO BUMP THE TIMING UP. ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR DOES OFTEN
GET HERE FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...OUR TIMING IS AHEAD OF
THE USUALLY RELIABLE RAP/NAM FORECASTS.

INDICATIONS FROM THE 0Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEING AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY SLEET WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STRONG LIFT WILL KEEP
COOLING THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND RESULT
IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WE ARE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WHERE 1-2 INCHES MAY FALL. THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY
FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO SAY JUST HOW
MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SPENT AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WOULD BE
ACCUMULATING SLEET OR SNOW. THE 21Z SREF RAISES CONCERNS THAT MORE
THAN 1 INCH OF SLEET WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND...AND THE 0Z NAM
AND HI-RES WRF MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR OVER A HALF INCH OF SLEET. A TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING THAT MAY DROP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOW WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALSO WORTH NOTING ARE THE WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL WORK TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE IN REGIONS WHERE A CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE SNOW OCCURS.

FOR THE FORECAST...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP POPS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AREAWIDE. THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE OR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE-OVER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE GOOD
SETUP...WE HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ALONG AND NW OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS. WE ARE NOW EXPECTING 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OF SLEET AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF A EASTLAND TO
DENTON TO BONHAM LINE. FOR THE LINE FROM COMANCHE TO THE METROPLEX
TO PARIS...WE ARE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND AN INCH OF SNOW.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP THE
ZONE FROM WACO TO ATHENS UP TO A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET.

WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF UPGRADING A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND IF THE 0Z GFS HAD NOT COME
IN WITH A FARTHER SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS IN
COMPARISON TO THE OTHER MODELS...WE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE HAD THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE NOW. WE WILL DEFFER ANY DECISIONS TO THE
NEXT SHIFT WHO WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE ECMWF...ECMWF
ENSEMBLE...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND 3Z SREF. WARNING OR NOT...THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

TR.92

&&



.SHORT TERM...

...ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  48  26  39  24 /  60 100  90  10   5
WACO, TX              50  61  30  39  24 /  40  90  90  20   5
PARIS, TX             43  50  25  39  23 /  70 100  90  10   5
DENTON, TX            48  48  24  39  23 /  70 100  90  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          46  47  25  39  24 /  60 100  90  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  48  26  40  25 /  60 100  90  10   5
TERRELL, TX           49  52  27  40  23 /  50 100  90  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         51  59  31  39  25 /  40 100  90  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            52  64  30  39  25 /  30  90  80  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  50  24  38  22 /  80 100  90  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>121-131>134-143>146-156>161-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115.


&&

$$

 /



000
FXUS64 KFWD 040402
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1002 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
IN REFERENCE TO THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE HAVE LOOKED AT THE
INCOMING 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF AND ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND WORK
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE SW
TO NE ORIENTED BAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
WHICH HINGE ON THE TEMPERATURES...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
FOR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND WE SEE NO NEW DATA THAT SUGGESTS
WE NEED TO BUMP THE TIMING UP. ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR DOES OFTEN
GET HERE FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...OUR TIMING IS AHEAD OF
THE USUALLY RELIABLE RAP/NAM FORECASTS.

INDICATIONS FROM THE 0Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEING AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY SLEET THURSDAY EVENING. THE STRONG LIFT WILL KEEP
COOLING THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND RESULT
IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WE ARE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WHERE 1-2 INCHES MAY FALL. THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY
FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO SAY JUST HOW
MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SPENT AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WOULD BE
ACCUMULATING SLEET OR SNOW. THE 21Z SREF RAISES CONCERNS THAT MORE
THAN 1 INCH OF SLEET WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND...AND THE 0Z NAM
AND HI-RES WRF MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR OVER A HALF INCH OF SLEET. A TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING THAT MAY DROP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOW WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALSO WORTH NOTING ARE THE WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL WORK TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE IN REGIONS WHERE A CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE SNOW OCCURS.

FOR THE FORECAST...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP POPS THURSDAY
EVENING AREAWIDE. THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE OR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE-OVER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE GOOD
SETUP...WE HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ALONG AND NW OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS. WE ARE NOW EXPECTING 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OF SLEET AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF A EASTLAND TO
DENTON TO BONHAM LINE. FOR THE LINE FROM COMANCHE TO THE METROPLEX
TO PARIS...WE ARE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND AN INCH OF SNOW.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP THE
ZONE FROM WACO TO ATHENS UP TO A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET.

WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF UPGRADING A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND IF THE 0Z GFS HAD NOT COME
IN WITH A FARTHER SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS IN
COMPARISON TO THE OTHER MODELS...WE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE HAD THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE NOW. WE WILL DEFFER ANY DECISIONS TO THE
NEXT SHIFT WHO WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE ECMWF...ECMWF
ENSEMBLE...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND 3Z SREF. WARNING OR NOT...THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 559 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND THE TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO
THE WEST BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE MAJOR
AIRPORTS. STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING
NORTH TEXAS AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE PERSIST UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS. THE FOG HAS
BEEN DENSE IN SOME AREAS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. WILL SHOW IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS SOME LIGHT
RAIN OVERSPREADING NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT HAVE PUSHED BACK
THE TIMING OF THIS A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH IFR CONDITIONS.

THE SUB FREEZING AIR DOESNT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
METROPLEX UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...SO WILL START THE -FZRA AT
22Z. A TRANSITION OVER TO SLEET IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING.

DUNN


&&




.SHORT TERM...

...ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  48  26  39  24 /  60 100  90  10   5
WACO, TX              50  61  30  39  24 /  40  90  90  20   5
PARIS, TX             43  50  25  39  23 /  70 100  90  10   5
DENTON, TX            48  48  24  39  23 /  70 100  90  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          46  47  25  39  24 /  60 100  90  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  48  26  40  25 /  60 100  90  10   5
TERRELL, TX           49  52  27  40  23 /  50 100  90  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         51  59  31  39  25 /  40 100  90  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            52  64  30  39  25 /  30  90  80  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  50  24  38  22 /  80 100  90  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>121-131>134-143>146-156>161-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115.


&&

$$

 /



000
FXUS64 KFWD 040402
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1002 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
IN REFERENCE TO THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT...WE HAVE LOOKED AT THE
INCOMING 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF AND ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE IS AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR BAJA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND WORK
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS TO PRODUCE AN INTENSE SW
TO NE ORIENTED BAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS
WHICH HINGE ON THE TEMPERATURES...NOT ONLY AT THE SURFACE BUT
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
FOR TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER AND WE SEE NO NEW DATA THAT SUGGESTS
WE NEED TO BUMP THE TIMING UP. ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIR DOES OFTEN
GET HERE FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE...OUR TIMING IS AHEAD OF
THE USUALLY RELIABLE RAP/NAM FORECASTS.

INDICATIONS FROM THE 0Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BEING AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY SLEET THURSDAY EVENING. THE STRONG LIFT WILL KEEP
COOLING THE MID-UPPER LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND RESULT
IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WE ARE
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WHERE 1-2 INCHES MAY FALL. THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY
FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS...BUT IT IS TOUGH TO SAY JUST HOW
MUCH OF THIS WILL BE SPENT AS RAIN AND HOW MUCH WOULD BE
ACCUMULATING SLEET OR SNOW. THE 21Z SREF RAISES CONCERNS THAT MORE
THAN 1 INCH OF SLEET WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND...AND THE 0Z NAM
AND HI-RES WRF MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR OVER A HALF INCH OF SLEET. A TRANSITION TO SNOW WOULD OCCUR A
LITTLE LATER IN THE EVENING THAT MAY DROP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
SNOW WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALSO WORTH NOTING ARE THE WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL WORK TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE IN REGIONS WHERE A CHANGE OVER TO
MODERATE SNOW OCCURS.

FOR THE FORECAST...THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP POPS THURSDAY
EVENING AREAWIDE. THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE OR THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE-OVER. HOWEVER GIVEN THE GOOD
SETUP...WE HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ALONG AND NW OF A
LINE FROM COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS. WE ARE NOW EXPECTING 1/4 TO
1/2 INCH OF SLEET AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW NW OF A EASTLAND TO
DENTON TO BONHAM LINE. FOR THE LINE FROM COMANCHE TO THE METROPLEX
TO PARIS...WE ARE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLEET AND AN INCH OF SNOW.
AMOUNTS TAPER OFF AS ONE HEADS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT DID BUMP THE
ZONE FROM WACO TO ATHENS UP TO A 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET.

WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF UPGRADING A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING AND IF THE 0Z GFS HAD NOT COME
IN WITH A FARTHER SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS IN
COMPARISON TO THE OTHER MODELS...WE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE HAD THE
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE NOW. WE WILL DEFFER ANY DECISIONS TO THE
NEXT SHIFT WHO WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE ECMWF...ECMWF
ENSEMBLE...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND 3Z SREF. WARNING OR NOT...THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A HIGH IMPACT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 559 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND THE TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO
THE WEST BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE MAJOR
AIRPORTS. STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING
NORTH TEXAS AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE PERSIST UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS. THE FOG HAS
BEEN DENSE IN SOME AREAS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. WILL SHOW IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS SOME LIGHT
RAIN OVERSPREADING NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT HAVE PUSHED BACK
THE TIMING OF THIS A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH IFR CONDITIONS.

THE SUB FREEZING AIR DOESNT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
METROPLEX UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...SO WILL START THE -FZRA AT
22Z. A TRANSITION OVER TO SLEET IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING.

DUNN


&&




.SHORT TERM...

...ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  48  26  39  24 /  60 100  90  10   5
WACO, TX              50  61  30  39  24 /  40  90  90  20   5
PARIS, TX             43  50  25  39  23 /  70 100  90  10   5
DENTON, TX            48  48  24  39  23 /  70 100  90  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          46  47  25  39  24 /  60 100  90  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  48  26  40  25 /  60 100  90  10   5
TERRELL, TX           49  52  27  40  23 /  50 100  90  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         51  59  31  39  25 /  40 100  90  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            52  64  30  39  25 /  30  90  80  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  50  24  38  22 /  80 100  90  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>121-131>134-143>146-156>161-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115.


&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KLUB 040358 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
958 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
AT 9 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF
I-40...NOT QUITE YET INTO AMARILLO. THE FRONT IS NOT MOVING
QUICKLY. THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT THROUGH
CHILDRESS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LUBBOCK AROUND 6 AM. THE
FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR YOAKUM COUNTY AROUND 11 AM.

ALOFT...THE UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...MAKING
STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS NRN BAJA. DOWNSTREAM OVER WEST
TEXAS...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET CONTINUES OVERHEAD. BUT WITH
LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...WE ARE ONLY SEEING A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. ACTIVITY IS ON THE INCREASE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THINGS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ALOFT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND THE 00 UTC NAM IS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID-
LVL UPWARD MOTION AND LOW-LVL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR
PRECIP TO BE A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SNOW AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
LIFT MAY PROVE CRITICAL...BECAUSE IF IT ARRIVES EARLIER WHEN THE
TEMP PROFILE SUPPORTS A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND SNOW...THAT MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. IF
THE LIFT COMES LATER WHEN THE PRECIP IS MORE SOLIDLY SNOW...THE
CHANCE FOR GREATER SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE. THERE IS ALSO STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS IF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER
PROVES MORE DIFFICULT TO ERODE THAN EXPECTED. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT THERE IS A
HINT OF BANDED FEATURES IN THE QPF FIELDS...SO WE COULD SEE MORE
VARIATION IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
EVENT...AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS
TIME...CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CWA LOOKS TO
BE VALID AND THE START TIME OF 3 AM LOOKS GOOD AS WELL FOR THE
COUNTIES OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA....ALTHOUGH THERE/S BEEN SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT FROM LEA
COUNTY NEWD INTO YOAKUM. THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS RUNNING FROM THE
TRANS-PECOS TO NORTH-CENTRAL TX...CUTTING ACROSS THE SE SPLNS AND
SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...THEN
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH. A
STRAY RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 5 UTC AND 11 UTC. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO IFR OR LIFR. AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WITH ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT
KLBB. NE SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  30  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  40  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  40  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  40  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

33



000
FXUS64 KLUB 040358 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
958 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
AT 9 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF
I-40...NOT QUITE YET INTO AMARILLO. THE FRONT IS NOT MOVING
QUICKLY. THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT THROUGH
CHILDRESS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND LUBBOCK AROUND 6 AM. THE
FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR YOAKUM COUNTY AROUND 11 AM.

ALOFT...THE UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST...MAKING
STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS NRN BAJA. DOWNSTREAM OVER WEST
TEXAS...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET CONTINUES OVERHEAD. BUT WITH
LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...WE ARE ONLY SEEING A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. ACTIVITY IS ON THE INCREASE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THINGS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY...AND
WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES WIND CHILL READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. ALOFT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND THE 00 UTC NAM IS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID-
LVL UPWARD MOTION AND LOW-LVL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR
PRECIP TO BE A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY...WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SNOW AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST
LIFT MAY PROVE CRITICAL...BECAUSE IF IT ARRIVES EARLIER WHEN THE
TEMP PROFILE SUPPORTS A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET
AND SNOW...THAT MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. IF
THE LIFT COMES LATER WHEN THE PRECIP IS MORE SOLIDLY SNOW...THE
CHANCE FOR GREATER SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE. THERE IS ALSO STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS IF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER
PROVES MORE DIFFICULT TO ERODE THAN EXPECTED. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT THERE IS A
HINT OF BANDED FEATURES IN THE QPF FIELDS...SO WE COULD SEE MORE
VARIATION IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
EVENT...AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS
TIME...CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CWA LOOKS TO
BE VALID AND THE START TIME OF 3 AM LOOKS GOOD AS WELL FOR THE
COUNTIES OF THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA....ALTHOUGH THERE/S BEEN SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT FROM LEA
COUNTY NEWD INTO YOAKUM. THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS RUNNING FROM THE
TRANS-PECOS TO NORTH-CENTRAL TX...CUTTING ACROSS THE SE SPLNS AND
SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...THEN
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH. A
STRAY RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 5 UTC AND 11 UTC. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO IFR OR LIFR. AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WITH ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT
KLBB. NE SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  30  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  40  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  40  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  40  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS64 KSJT 040346
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
946 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday afternoon
and Wednesday Night for the Big Country, along and north of I-20
from Sweetwater to Abilene. New guidance continues to indicate
that the freezing line will drop south into the Big Country by mid
to late afternoon, in the heart of the precip shield. Soundings at
Abilene indicate a freeing rain and perhaps sleet setup,
eventually changing over to snow during the evening. Bumped
precipitation chances up and tweaked hourly temperatures to
account.

Indications are that wintry precip may well cover a large part of
West Central Texas by tomorrow evening. Will let the next shift
peruse the entire set of data, but would not surprise me to see
the advisory shifted south.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The low clouds have cleared out and VFR conditions have returned,
but this will not last much longer. After Midnight, low cloud
development with MVFR ceilings will affect our southern TAF sites.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight and
continue into Wednesday morning. The KABI terminal will most likely
be affected. A strong cold front will push south across west central
Texas on Wednesday. This front is expected to reach KABI shortly
before 12Z, KSJT by 16Z, and the I-10 corridor around 19Z. Geherally
light winds will occur ahead of the front, and gusty north winds
will follow passage of this front. Rain will increase in coverage
during the afternoon, becoming freezing rain across the Big Country.
Ceilings will drop through the afternoon. with some visibility
reduction.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Look for big weather changes during the next 24 hours. As a minor
upper-level disturbance moves over West Central Texas tonight, it
will bring the potential for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be mainly along
and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, with more favorable upper
dynamics there. In addition, low clouds will return to much of West
Central Texas overnight, as another cold front approaches from the
north. Timing of this front is critical, with respect to when winter
type precipitation will begin tomorrow. Models continue to bring the
cold front to our Interstate 20 corridor by 6 am CST tomorrow
morning. So, with that timing, we believe the winter precipitation
will not begin until tomorrow afternoon, for locations along and
north of a Mertzon, to San Angelo, to Spring Creek line. Plus, we
believe accumulation of sleet of ice will not begin until after 6 PM
CST tomorrow evening, because surface cold air advection behind the
front will not be strong enough to lower surface temperatures to or
below the freezing mark.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Another blast of winter weather will affect all of West Central
Texas in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame. Cold air
will continue to deepen across the area, with soundings showing most
areas having changed to an all winter precipitation type by
midnight. Taking a closer look at these soundings, a wedge of
warm air is seen between three-six thousand feet above the surface,
with sub-freezing air above and below this layer. This warm layer
barely reaches +3 Celsius, and the top of the saturated layer barely
touches -10/-11 Celsius (just below the dendrite growth zone). Given
this type of sounding profile, the forecast was changed to show
freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type. Some sleet
could also mix in at times, especially with any elevated convection
which develops, as the soundings show elevated instability
developing with MUCAPEs approaching 100 J/kg in the 700-450mb layer.

By Thursday afternoon, dry air will rapidly advect into the area,
allowing skies to become partly sunny from northwest to southeast
across the region. However, temperatures will be slow to recover
with most areas remaining in the 30s. Heading through the remainder
of the week and into the weekend, temperatures will continue to
moderate by 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit each day, with highs
approaching 60 degrees by Sunday, and remain in the 60s for the
first half of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  47  49  21  35  21 /  50  80  70  10   5
San Angelo  50  57  25  39  23 /  30  60  50  10   5
Junction  50  63  28  38  23 /  30  60  60  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KSJT 040346
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
946 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday afternoon
and Wednesday Night for the Big Country, along and north of I-20
from Sweetwater to Abilene. New guidance continues to indicate
that the freezing line will drop south into the Big Country by mid
to late afternoon, in the heart of the precip shield. Soundings at
Abilene indicate a freeing rain and perhaps sleet setup,
eventually changing over to snow during the evening. Bumped
precipitation chances up and tweaked hourly temperatures to
account.

Indications are that wintry precip may well cover a large part of
West Central Texas by tomorrow evening. Will let the next shift
peruse the entire set of data, but would not surprise me to see
the advisory shifted south.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The low clouds have cleared out and VFR conditions have returned,
but this will not last much longer. After Midnight, low cloud
development with MVFR ceilings will affect our southern TAF sites.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight and
continue into Wednesday morning. The KABI terminal will most likely
be affected. A strong cold front will push south across west central
Texas on Wednesday. This front is expected to reach KABI shortly
before 12Z, KSJT by 16Z, and the I-10 corridor around 19Z. Geherally
light winds will occur ahead of the front, and gusty north winds
will follow passage of this front. Rain will increase in coverage
during the afternoon, becoming freezing rain across the Big Country.
Ceilings will drop through the afternoon. with some visibility
reduction.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Look for big weather changes during the next 24 hours. As a minor
upper-level disturbance moves over West Central Texas tonight, it
will bring the potential for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be mainly along
and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, with more favorable upper
dynamics there. In addition, low clouds will return to much of West
Central Texas overnight, as another cold front approaches from the
north. Timing of this front is critical, with respect to when winter
type precipitation will begin tomorrow. Models continue to bring the
cold front to our Interstate 20 corridor by 6 am CST tomorrow
morning. So, with that timing, we believe the winter precipitation
will not begin until tomorrow afternoon, for locations along and
north of a Mertzon, to San Angelo, to Spring Creek line. Plus, we
believe accumulation of sleet of ice will not begin until after 6 PM
CST tomorrow evening, because surface cold air advection behind the
front will not be strong enough to lower surface temperatures to or
below the freezing mark.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Another blast of winter weather will affect all of West Central
Texas in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame. Cold air
will continue to deepen across the area, with soundings showing most
areas having changed to an all winter precipitation type by
midnight. Taking a closer look at these soundings, a wedge of
warm air is seen between three-six thousand feet above the surface,
with sub-freezing air above and below this layer. This warm layer
barely reaches +3 Celsius, and the top of the saturated layer barely
touches -10/-11 Celsius (just below the dendrite growth zone). Given
this type of sounding profile, the forecast was changed to show
freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type. Some sleet
could also mix in at times, especially with any elevated convection
which develops, as the soundings show elevated instability
developing with MUCAPEs approaching 100 J/kg in the 700-450mb layer.

By Thursday afternoon, dry air will rapidly advect into the area,
allowing skies to become partly sunny from northwest to southeast
across the region. However, temperatures will be slow to recover
with most areas remaining in the 30s. Heading through the remainder
of the week and into the weekend, temperatures will continue to
moderate by 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit each day, with highs
approaching 60 degrees by Sunday, and remain in the 60s for the
first half of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  47  49  21  35  21 /  50  80  70  10   5
San Angelo  50  57  25  39  23 /  30  60  50  10   5
Junction  50  63  28  38  23 /  30  60  60  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KSJT 040346
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
946 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday afternoon
and Wednesday Night for the Big Country, along and north of I-20
from Sweetwater to Abilene. New guidance continues to indicate
that the freezing line will drop south into the Big Country by mid
to late afternoon, in the heart of the precip shield. Soundings at
Abilene indicate a freeing rain and perhaps sleet setup,
eventually changing over to snow during the evening. Bumped
precipitation chances up and tweaked hourly temperatures to
account.

Indications are that wintry precip may well cover a large part of
West Central Texas by tomorrow evening. Will let the next shift
peruse the entire set of data, but would not surprise me to see
the advisory shifted south.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The low clouds have cleared out and VFR conditions have returned,
but this will not last much longer. After Midnight, low cloud
development with MVFR ceilings will affect our southern TAF sites.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight and
continue into Wednesday morning. The KABI terminal will most likely
be affected. A strong cold front will push south across west central
Texas on Wednesday. This front is expected to reach KABI shortly
before 12Z, KSJT by 16Z, and the I-10 corridor around 19Z. Geherally
light winds will occur ahead of the front, and gusty north winds
will follow passage of this front. Rain will increase in coverage
during the afternoon, becoming freezing rain across the Big Country.
Ceilings will drop through the afternoon. with some visibility
reduction.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Look for big weather changes during the next 24 hours. As a minor
upper-level disturbance moves over West Central Texas tonight, it
will bring the potential for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be mainly along
and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, with more favorable upper
dynamics there. In addition, low clouds will return to much of West
Central Texas overnight, as another cold front approaches from the
north. Timing of this front is critical, with respect to when winter
type precipitation will begin tomorrow. Models continue to bring the
cold front to our Interstate 20 corridor by 6 am CST tomorrow
morning. So, with that timing, we believe the winter precipitation
will not begin until tomorrow afternoon, for locations along and
north of a Mertzon, to San Angelo, to Spring Creek line. Plus, we
believe accumulation of sleet of ice will not begin until after 6 PM
CST tomorrow evening, because surface cold air advection behind the
front will not be strong enough to lower surface temperatures to or
below the freezing mark.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Another blast of winter weather will affect all of West Central
Texas in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame. Cold air
will continue to deepen across the area, with soundings showing most
areas having changed to an all winter precipitation type by
midnight. Taking a closer look at these soundings, a wedge of
warm air is seen between three-six thousand feet above the surface,
with sub-freezing air above and below this layer. This warm layer
barely reaches +3 Celsius, and the top of the saturated layer barely
touches -10/-11 Celsius (just below the dendrite growth zone). Given
this type of sounding profile, the forecast was changed to show
freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type. Some sleet
could also mix in at times, especially with any elevated convection
which develops, as the soundings show elevated instability
developing with MUCAPEs approaching 100 J/kg in the 700-450mb layer.

By Thursday afternoon, dry air will rapidly advect into the area,
allowing skies to become partly sunny from northwest to southeast
across the region. However, temperatures will be slow to recover
with most areas remaining in the 30s. Heading through the remainder
of the week and into the weekend, temperatures will continue to
moderate by 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit each day, with highs
approaching 60 degrees by Sunday, and remain in the 60s for the
first half of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  47  49  21  35  21 /  50  80  70  10   5
San Angelo  50  57  25  39  23 /  30  60  50  10   5
Junction  50  63  28  38  23 /  30  60  60  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KSJT 040346
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
946 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday afternoon
and Wednesday Night for the Big Country, along and north of I-20
from Sweetwater to Abilene. New guidance continues to indicate
that the freezing line will drop south into the Big Country by mid
to late afternoon, in the heart of the precip shield. Soundings at
Abilene indicate a freeing rain and perhaps sleet setup,
eventually changing over to snow during the evening. Bumped
precipitation chances up and tweaked hourly temperatures to
account.

Indications are that wintry precip may well cover a large part of
West Central Texas by tomorrow evening. Will let the next shift
peruse the entire set of data, but would not surprise me to see
the advisory shifted south.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The low clouds have cleared out and VFR conditions have returned,
but this will not last much longer. After Midnight, low cloud
development with MVFR ceilings will affect our southern TAF sites.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight and
continue into Wednesday morning. The KABI terminal will most likely
be affected. A strong cold front will push south across west central
Texas on Wednesday. This front is expected to reach KABI shortly
before 12Z, KSJT by 16Z, and the I-10 corridor around 19Z. Geherally
light winds will occur ahead of the front, and gusty north winds
will follow passage of this front. Rain will increase in coverage
during the afternoon, becoming freezing rain across the Big Country.
Ceilings will drop through the afternoon. with some visibility
reduction.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Look for big weather changes during the next 24 hours. As a minor
upper-level disturbance moves over West Central Texas tonight, it
will bring the potential for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be mainly along
and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, with more favorable upper
dynamics there. In addition, low clouds will return to much of West
Central Texas overnight, as another cold front approaches from the
north. Timing of this front is critical, with respect to when winter
type precipitation will begin tomorrow. Models continue to bring the
cold front to our Interstate 20 corridor by 6 am CST tomorrow
morning. So, with that timing, we believe the winter precipitation
will not begin until tomorrow afternoon, for locations along and
north of a Mertzon, to San Angelo, to Spring Creek line. Plus, we
believe accumulation of sleet of ice will not begin until after 6 PM
CST tomorrow evening, because surface cold air advection behind the
front will not be strong enough to lower surface temperatures to or
below the freezing mark.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Another blast of winter weather will affect all of West Central
Texas in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame. Cold air
will continue to deepen across the area, with soundings showing most
areas having changed to an all winter precipitation type by
midnight. Taking a closer look at these soundings, a wedge of
warm air is seen between three-six thousand feet above the surface,
with sub-freezing air above and below this layer. This warm layer
barely reaches +3 Celsius, and the top of the saturated layer barely
touches -10/-11 Celsius (just below the dendrite growth zone). Given
this type of sounding profile, the forecast was changed to show
freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type. Some sleet
could also mix in at times, especially with any elevated convection
which develops, as the soundings show elevated instability
developing with MUCAPEs approaching 100 J/kg in the 700-450mb layer.

By Thursday afternoon, dry air will rapidly advect into the area,
allowing skies to become partly sunny from northwest to southeast
across the region. However, temperatures will be slow to recover
with most areas remaining in the 30s. Heading through the remainder
of the week and into the weekend, temperatures will continue to
moderate by 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit each day, with highs
approaching 60 degrees by Sunday, and remain in the 60s for the
first half of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  47  49  21  35  21 /  50  80  70  10   5
San Angelo  50  57  25  39  23 /  30  60  50  10   5
Junction  50  63  28  38  23 /  30  60  60  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KCRP 040335
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
935 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...A MIX OF FOG AND LOW CLOUD DECK ARE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS CURRENTLY. WARM BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHING INLAND HAS ALLOWED
FOR MORE S TO SE WINDS TO DEVELOP FROM VCT TO CRP TO LRD. N TO NE
FLOW REMAIN AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES (UPPER 50S
THERE). ALONG THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
PERSISTING. SMALLER AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BRIEFLY PUSHED INLAND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...BEFORE QUICKLY THINNING AGAIN.
THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN ALONG THE COAST (WITH
JUST PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS)...GENERALLY EXPECT FOG TO
REMAIN ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...WITH
MAINLY A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INLAND AND AREAS OF FOG
ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH IN THIS
VARIABLE KIND OF SITUATION...AND CANNOT RULE OUT ANY FUTURE
UPDATES OVERNIGHT FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. THAT SAID...DO EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO LINGER OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS
WARMER...MOIST AIR PUSHES OVER THE COOLER WATERS. MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  77  38  42  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
VICTORIA          62  73  35  39  33  /  20  30  60  20  10
LAREDO            61  81  39  43  38  /  10  10  60  20  10
ALICE             62  79  37  41  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
ROCKPORT          61  70  38  43  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
COTULLA           58  78  36  44  35  /  20  30  60  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  81  38  42  38  /  20  20  60  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  71  39  43  38  /  20  20  60  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 040335
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
935 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...A MIX OF FOG AND LOW CLOUD DECK ARE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS CURRENTLY. WARM BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHING INLAND HAS ALLOWED
FOR MORE S TO SE WINDS TO DEVELOP FROM VCT TO CRP TO LRD. N TO NE
FLOW REMAIN AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES (UPPER 50S
THERE). ALONG THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
PERSISTING. SMALLER AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BRIEFLY PUSHED INLAND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...BEFORE QUICKLY THINNING AGAIN.
THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN ALONG THE COAST (WITH
JUST PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS)...GENERALLY EXPECT FOG TO
REMAIN ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...WITH
MAINLY A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INLAND AND AREAS OF FOG
ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH IN THIS
VARIABLE KIND OF SITUATION...AND CANNOT RULE OUT ANY FUTURE
UPDATES OVERNIGHT FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. THAT SAID...DO EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO LINGER OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS
WARMER...MOIST AIR PUSHES OVER THE COOLER WATERS. MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  77  38  42  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
VICTORIA          62  73  35  39  33  /  20  30  60  20  10
LAREDO            61  81  39  43  38  /  10  10  60  20  10
ALICE             62  79  37  41  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
ROCKPORT          61  70  38  43  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
COTULLA           58  78  36  44  35  /  20  30  60  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  81  38  42  38  /  20  20  60  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  71  39  43  38  /  20  20  60  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 040335
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
935 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...A MIX OF FOG AND LOW CLOUD DECK ARE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS CURRENTLY. WARM BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHING INLAND HAS ALLOWED
FOR MORE S TO SE WINDS TO DEVELOP FROM VCT TO CRP TO LRD. N TO NE
FLOW REMAIN AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES (UPPER 50S
THERE). ALONG THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
PERSISTING. SMALLER AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BRIEFLY PUSHED INLAND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...BEFORE QUICKLY THINNING AGAIN.
THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN ALONG THE COAST (WITH
JUST PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS)...GENERALLY EXPECT FOG TO
REMAIN ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...WITH
MAINLY A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INLAND AND AREAS OF FOG
ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH IN THIS
VARIABLE KIND OF SITUATION...AND CANNOT RULE OUT ANY FUTURE
UPDATES OVERNIGHT FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. THAT SAID...DO EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO LINGER OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS
WARMER...MOIST AIR PUSHES OVER THE COOLER WATERS. MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  77  38  42  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
VICTORIA          62  73  35  39  33  /  20  30  60  20  10
LAREDO            61  81  39  43  38  /  10  10  60  20  10
ALICE             62  79  37  41  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
ROCKPORT          61  70  38  43  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
COTULLA           58  78  36  44  35  /  20  30  60  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  81  38  42  38  /  20  20  60  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  71  39  43  38  /  20  20  60  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 040335
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
935 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...A MIX OF FOG AND LOW CLOUD DECK ARE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS CURRENTLY. WARM BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSHING INLAND HAS ALLOWED
FOR MORE S TO SE WINDS TO DEVELOP FROM VCT TO CRP TO LRD. N TO NE
FLOW REMAIN AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES (UPPER 50S
THERE). ALONG THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS DENSE FOG HAS BEEN
PERSISTING. SMALLER AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BRIEFLY PUSHED INLAND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...BEFORE QUICKLY THINNING AGAIN.
THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING UP AND DOWN ALONG THE COAST (WITH
JUST PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS)...GENERALLY EXPECT FOG TO
REMAIN ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...WITH
MAINLY A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG INLAND AND AREAS OF FOG
ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH IN THIS
VARIABLE KIND OF SITUATION...AND CANNOT RULE OUT ANY FUTURE
UPDATES OVERNIGHT FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES. THAT SAID...DO EXPECT
DENSE FOG TO LINGER OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS
WARMER...MOIST AIR PUSHES OVER THE COOLER WATERS. MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  77  38  42  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
VICTORIA          62  73  35  39  33  /  20  30  60  20  10
LAREDO            61  81  39  43  38  /  10  10  60  20  10
ALICE             62  79  37  41  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
ROCKPORT          61  70  38  43  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
COTULLA           58  78  36  44  35  /  20  30  60  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  81  38  42  38  /  20  20  60  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  71  39  43  38  /  20  20  60  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KHGX 040300
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
900 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT SHREVEPORT TO
HALLETSVILLE TO LAREDO. SFC DEW PTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING FROM MODEST SFC
WINDS SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SO
BUMPED MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. KHGX VWP SHOWS A SOUTH FLOW
NEAR 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET AND SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
SO FEEL LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG. GALVESTON HAD
DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THAT SAID...POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR POCKETS
OF DENSE SEA FOG TO AFFECT KGLS AS DEW PTS NEAR 70 FLOW OVER SHELF
WATERS IN THE LOWER 50S. NOT SURE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED ALONG THE COAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND DECIDE A BIT
LATER ON WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE
TONIGHT AS SE TX LIES A LITTLE TOO CLOSE TO A 300 MB RIDGE WITH
THE BEST JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF SE TX. BEST
850-700 MB MOISTURE IS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN AS THE
UPPER JET NEARS AND MSTR LEVELS BEGIN TO DEEPEN. NEW ZONES OUT BY
915 PM. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
THE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES AT 2330Z WILL LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
EVENING. KGLS HAD SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND SHOULD SEE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO SINCE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FACT
MAY ALONG HELP KEEP SEA FOG FROM BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  74  32  37  27 /  20  80  60  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  76  37  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  66  41  42  35 /  20  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 040300
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
900 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT SHREVEPORT TO
HALLETSVILLE TO LAREDO. SFC DEW PTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING FROM MODEST SFC
WINDS SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SO
BUMPED MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. KHGX VWP SHOWS A SOUTH FLOW
NEAR 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET AND SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
SO FEEL LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG. GALVESTON HAD
DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THAT SAID...POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR POCKETS
OF DENSE SEA FOG TO AFFECT KGLS AS DEW PTS NEAR 70 FLOW OVER SHELF
WATERS IN THE LOWER 50S. NOT SURE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED ALONG THE COAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND DECIDE A BIT
LATER ON WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE
TONIGHT AS SE TX LIES A LITTLE TOO CLOSE TO A 300 MB RIDGE WITH
THE BEST JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF SE TX. BEST
850-700 MB MOISTURE IS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN AS THE
UPPER JET NEARS AND MSTR LEVELS BEGIN TO DEEPEN. NEW ZONES OUT BY
915 PM. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
THE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES AT 2330Z WILL LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
EVENING. KGLS HAD SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND SHOULD SEE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO SINCE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FACT
MAY ALONG HELP KEEP SEA FOG FROM BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  74  32  37  27 /  20  80  60  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  76  37  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  66  41  42  35 /  20  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43



000
FXUS64 KHGX 040300
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
900 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT SHREVEPORT TO
HALLETSVILLE TO LAREDO. SFC DEW PTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING FROM MODEST SFC
WINDS SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SO
BUMPED MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. KHGX VWP SHOWS A SOUTH FLOW
NEAR 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET AND SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
SO FEEL LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG. GALVESTON HAD
DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THAT SAID...POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR POCKETS
OF DENSE SEA FOG TO AFFECT KGLS AS DEW PTS NEAR 70 FLOW OVER SHELF
WATERS IN THE LOWER 50S. NOT SURE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED ALONG THE COAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND DECIDE A BIT
LATER ON WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE
TONIGHT AS SE TX LIES A LITTLE TOO CLOSE TO A 300 MB RIDGE WITH
THE BEST JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF SE TX. BEST
850-700 MB MOISTURE IS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN AS THE
UPPER JET NEARS AND MSTR LEVELS BEGIN TO DEEPEN. NEW ZONES OUT BY
915 PM. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
THE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES AT 2330Z WILL LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
EVENING. KGLS HAD SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND SHOULD SEE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO SINCE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FACT
MAY ALONG HELP KEEP SEA FOG FROM BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  74  32  37  27 /  20  80  60  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  76  37  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  66  41  42  35 /  20  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 040300
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
900 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM ABOUT SHREVEPORT TO
HALLETSVILLE TO LAREDO. SFC DEW PTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING FROM MODEST SFC
WINDS SHOULD YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SO
BUMPED MINS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. KHGX VWP SHOWS A SOUTH FLOW
NEAR 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET AND SFC WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
SO FEEL LOW CLOUDS ARE FAVORED INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG. GALVESTON HAD
DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THAT SAID...POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR POCKETS
OF DENSE SEA FOG TO AFFECT KGLS AS DEW PTS NEAR 70 FLOW OVER SHELF
WATERS IN THE LOWER 50S. NOT SURE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED ALONG THE COAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND DECIDE A BIT
LATER ON WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK OVERDONE
TONIGHT AS SE TX LIES A LITTLE TOO CLOSE TO A 300 MB RIDGE WITH
THE BEST JET DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF SE TX. BEST
850-700 MB MOISTURE IS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN AS THE
UPPER JET NEARS AND MSTR LEVELS BEGIN TO DEEPEN. NEW ZONES OUT BY
915 PM. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
THE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES AT 2330Z WILL LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
EVENING. KGLS HAD SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND SHOULD SEE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO SINCE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FACT
MAY ALONG HELP KEEP SEA FOG FROM BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  74  32  37  27 /  20  80  60  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  76  37  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  66  41  42  35 /  20  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43



000
FXUS64 KEWX 040237
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
837 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MOST GRID EDITS WERE MADE TO HOURLY T AND DEWT TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED FOG MENTION INTO DIMMITT COUNTY. EXPECTING
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. AT THE MOMENT...ONLY PATCHY DENSE IS BEING OBSERVED
SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FIRST.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT OUT WEST...AREA TERMINALS ARE IN
IFR CATEGORY AND EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO BECOME DENSE
OVERNIGHT WITH VBSYS LOWERING TO VLIFR PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH VBSYS
IMPROVING A BIT BUT LIFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ALONG THE I35 SITES AROUND 22Z/23Z. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  76  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00



000
FXUS64 KEWX 040237
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
837 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MOST GRID EDITS WERE MADE TO HOURLY T AND DEWT TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED FOG MENTION INTO DIMMITT COUNTY. EXPECTING
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. AT THE MOMENT...ONLY PATCHY DENSE IS BEING OBSERVED
SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FIRST.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT OUT WEST...AREA TERMINALS ARE IN
IFR CATEGORY AND EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO BECOME DENSE
OVERNIGHT WITH VBSYS LOWERING TO VLIFR PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH VBSYS
IMPROVING A BIT BUT LIFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ALONG THE I35 SITES AROUND 22Z/23Z. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  76  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00




000
FXUS64 KEWX 040237
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
837 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MOST GRID EDITS WERE MADE TO HOURLY T AND DEWT TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED FOG MENTION INTO DIMMITT COUNTY. EXPECTING
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. AT THE MOMENT...ONLY PATCHY DENSE IS BEING OBSERVED
SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FIRST.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT OUT WEST...AREA TERMINALS ARE IN
IFR CATEGORY AND EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO BECOME DENSE
OVERNIGHT WITH VBSYS LOWERING TO VLIFR PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH VBSYS
IMPROVING A BIT BUT LIFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ALONG THE I35 SITES AROUND 22Z/23Z. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  76  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00



000
FXUS64 KEWX 040237
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
837 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MOST GRID EDITS WERE MADE TO HOURLY T AND DEWT TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED FOG MENTION INTO DIMMITT COUNTY. EXPECTING
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. AT THE MOMENT...ONLY PATCHY DENSE IS BEING OBSERVED
SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FIRST.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT OUT WEST...AREA TERMINALS ARE IN
IFR CATEGORY AND EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO BECOME DENSE
OVERNIGHT WITH VBSYS LOWERING TO VLIFR PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH VBSYS
IMPROVING A BIT BUT LIFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ALONG THE I35 SITES AROUND 22Z/23Z. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  76  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00



000
FXUS64 KEWX 040237
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
837 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MOST GRID EDITS WERE MADE TO HOURLY T AND DEWT TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED FOG MENTION INTO DIMMITT COUNTY. EXPECTING
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. AT THE MOMENT...ONLY PATCHY DENSE IS BEING OBSERVED
SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FIRST.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT OUT WEST...AREA TERMINALS ARE IN
IFR CATEGORY AND EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO BECOME DENSE
OVERNIGHT WITH VBSYS LOWERING TO VLIFR PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH VBSYS
IMPROVING A BIT BUT LIFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ALONG THE I35 SITES AROUND 22Z/23Z. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  76  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00



000
FXUS64 KEWX 040237
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
837 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MOST GRID EDITS WERE MADE TO HOURLY T AND DEWT TO CAPTURE LATEST
TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED FOG MENTION INTO DIMMITT COUNTY. EXPECTING
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. AT THE MOMENT...ONLY PATCHY DENSE IS BEING OBSERVED
SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FIRST.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT OUT WEST...AREA TERMINALS ARE IN
IFR CATEGORY AND EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO BECOME DENSE
OVERNIGHT WITH VBSYS LOWERING TO VLIFR PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH VBSYS
IMPROVING A BIT BUT LIFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ALONG THE I35 SITES AROUND 22Z/23Z. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  76  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00



000
FXUS64 KLUB 040144 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
744 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. RADAR TRENDS HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AREA....ALTHOUGH THERE/S BEEN SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT FROM LEA
COUNTY NEWD INTO YOAKUM. THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG A SW TO NE AXIS RUNNNING FROM THE
TRANS-PECOS TO NORTH-CENTRAL TX...CUTTING ACROSS THE SE SPLNS AND
SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...THEN
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH. A
STRAY RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 5 UTC AND 11 UTC. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO IFR OR LIFR. AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WITH ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT
KLBB. NE SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  30  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  40  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  40  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  40  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 040019 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT OUT WEST...AREA TERMINALS ARE IN
IFR CATEGORY AND EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO BECOME DENSE
OVERNIGHT WITH VBSYS LOWERING TO VLIFR PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH VBSYS
IMPROVING A BIT BUT LIFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ALONG THE I35 SITES AROUND 22Z/23Z. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  76  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00



000
FXUS64 KEWX 040019 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT OUT WEST...AREA TERMINALS ARE IN
IFR CATEGORY AND EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO BECOME DENSE
OVERNIGHT WITH VBSYS LOWERING TO VLIFR PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH VBSYS
IMPROVING A BIT BUT LIFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ALONG THE I35 SITES AROUND 22Z/23Z. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  76  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00



000
FXUS64 KEWX 040019 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT OUT WEST...AREA TERMINALS ARE IN
IFR CATEGORY AND EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO BECOME DENSE
OVERNIGHT WITH VBSYS LOWERING TO VLIFR PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH VBSYS
IMPROVING A BIT BUT LIFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ALONG THE I35 SITES AROUND 22Z/23Z. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  76  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00



000
FXUS64 KEWX 040019 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT OUT WEST...AREA TERMINALS ARE IN
IFR CATEGORY AND EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO BECOME DENSE
OVERNIGHT WITH VBSYS LOWERING TO VLIFR PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH VBSYS
IMPROVING A BIT BUT LIFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ALONG THE I35 SITES AROUND 22Z/23Z. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  76  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00



000
FXUS64 KEWX 040019 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT OUT WEST...AREA TERMINALS ARE IN
IFR CATEGORY AND EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO BECOME DENSE
OVERNIGHT WITH VBSYS LOWERING TO VLIFR PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH VBSYS
IMPROVING A BIT BUT LIFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ALONG THE I35 SITES AROUND 22Z/23Z. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  76  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00




000
FXUS64 KEWX 040019 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
ANOTHER CHALLENGING TAF FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30
HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDRT OUT WEST...AREA TERMINALS ARE IN
IFR CATEGORY AND EXPECTED TO LOWER TO LIFR LATE THIS EVENING INTO
MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO BECOME DENSE
OVERNIGHT WITH VBSYS LOWERING TO VLIFR PRIMARILY LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BECOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH VBSYS
IMPROVING A BIT BUT LIFR CIGS REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ALONG THE I35 SITES AROUND 22Z/23Z. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  76  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00



000
FXUS64 KMAF 040012
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 04/00z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Have made some changes to the ongoing owing to a quicker than
expected frontal translation. The 21Z HRRR pegged the position and
motion of the cold front at 23Z -- somewhere from just south of
Dalhart to near Borger then from there to near I-40 at the OK/TX
state line. As such, expect the front to arrive a bit sooner than
previous forecast, which unfortunately means bringing in wintry
precip and IFR/LIFR conditions Wednesday morning. Hope to have
things better pinned down on the 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough that extends from Montana southwestward back
to the Pacific will move east and drag across Northern Mexico on the
way to the region.  The trough will pass into the area Wednesday.
After the trough passes east on Thursday a West Coast ridge will
build into the area Friday with mild wx for the area.

Have had a marginal warm up today with highs in the 50s and 60s but
that is  not going to last long.  Today should be warmest day since
Feb 25th.  A strong cold front will blow through the area tomorrow with
an arctic airmass returning to the region.  The front has good
pressure rises behind it and is quickly moving across CO and KS this
afternoon.  This front will arrive in the NE Permian Basin early
Wednesday morning and quickly pass through the area.  The wind will
be gusty out of the N/NE behind the front.  Much of the region will
reach its high temps early with readings falling through the day.
As this front pushes through the Guadalupe Pass could see high wind.
Have issued a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Pass Wednesday night.
Highs only make it into the 30s Thursday. Will take a few days to
recover from this latest cold air intrusion but by the weekend
highs in the 60s should return and continue into early next week.

Have another shot of precip tonight... mainly showers but could be a
few storms.  As the cold air moves in Wednesday the precip may mix
with sleet or snow by afternoon especially across Northern Permian Basin.
This precip should change over to snow Wednesday night for much of
the region.  Currently have a SPS discussing wintry precip with max
snow accumulation up to 1 inch... if the cold air arrives faster
than an advisory may be needed.  Drier conditions begin Thursday
with no additional precip through end of forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 040012
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 04/00z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Have made some changes to the ongoing owing to a quicker than
expected frontal translation. The 21Z HRRR pegged the position and
motion of the cold front at 23Z -- somewhere from just south of
Dalhart to near Borger then from there to near I-40 at the OK/TX
state line. As such, expect the front to arrive a bit sooner than
previous forecast, which unfortunately means bringing in wintry
precip and IFR/LIFR conditions Wednesday morning. Hope to have
things better pinned down on the 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough that extends from Montana southwestward back
to the Pacific will move east and drag across Northern Mexico on the
way to the region.  The trough will pass into the area Wednesday.
After the trough passes east on Thursday a West Coast ridge will
build into the area Friday with mild wx for the area.

Have had a marginal warm up today with highs in the 50s and 60s but
that is  not going to last long.  Today should be warmest day since
Feb 25th.  A strong cold front will blow through the area tomorrow with
an arctic airmass returning to the region.  The front has good
pressure rises behind it and is quickly moving across CO and KS this
afternoon.  This front will arrive in the NE Permian Basin early
Wednesday morning and quickly pass through the area.  The wind will
be gusty out of the N/NE behind the front.  Much of the region will
reach its high temps early with readings falling through the day.
As this front pushes through the Guadalupe Pass could see high wind.
Have issued a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Pass Wednesday night.
Highs only make it into the 30s Thursday. Will take a few days to
recover from this latest cold air intrusion but by the weekend
highs in the 60s should return and continue into early next week.

Have another shot of precip tonight... mainly showers but could be a
few storms.  As the cold air moves in Wednesday the precip may mix
with sleet or snow by afternoon especially across Northern Permian Basin.
This precip should change over to snow Wednesday night for much of
the region.  Currently have a SPS discussing wintry precip with max
snow accumulation up to 1 inch... if the cold air arrives faster
than an advisory may be needed.  Drier conditions begin Thursday
with no additional precip through end of forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 040012
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 04/00z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Have made some changes to the ongoing owing to a quicker than
expected frontal translation. The 21Z HRRR pegged the position and
motion of the cold front at 23Z -- somewhere from just south of
Dalhart to near Borger then from there to near I-40 at the OK/TX
state line. As such, expect the front to arrive a bit sooner than
previous forecast, which unfortunately means bringing in wintry
precip and IFR/LIFR conditions Wednesday morning. Hope to have
things better pinned down on the 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough that extends from Montana southwestward back
to the Pacific will move east and drag across Northern Mexico on the
way to the region.  The trough will pass into the area Wednesday.
After the trough passes east on Thursday a West Coast ridge will
build into the area Friday with mild wx for the area.

Have had a marginal warm up today with highs in the 50s and 60s but
that is  not going to last long.  Today should be warmest day since
Feb 25th.  A strong cold front will blow through the area tomorrow with
an arctic airmass returning to the region.  The front has good
pressure rises behind it and is quickly moving across CO and KS this
afternoon.  This front will arrive in the NE Permian Basin early
Wednesday morning and quickly pass through the area.  The wind will
be gusty out of the N/NE behind the front.  Much of the region will
reach its high temps early with readings falling through the day.
As this front pushes through the Guadalupe Pass could see high wind.
Have issued a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Pass Wednesday night.
Highs only make it into the 30s Thursday. Will take a few days to
recover from this latest cold air intrusion but by the weekend
highs in the 60s should return and continue into early next week.

Have another shot of precip tonight... mainly showers but could be a
few storms.  As the cold air moves in Wednesday the precip may mix
with sleet or snow by afternoon especially across Northern Permian Basin.
This precip should change over to snow Wednesday night for much of
the region.  Currently have a SPS discussing wintry precip with max
snow accumulation up to 1 inch... if the cold air arrives faster
than an advisory may be needed.  Drier conditions begin Thursday
with no additional precip through end of forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

70

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 040000 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The low clouds have cleared out and VFR conditions have returned,
but this will not last much longer. After Midnight, low cloud
development with MVFR ceilings will affect our southern TAF sites.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight and
continue into Wednesday morning. The KABI terminal will most likely
be affected. A strong cold front will push south across west central
Texas on Wednesday. This front is expected to reach KABI shortly
before 12Z, KSJT by 16Z, and the I-10 corridor around 19Z. Geherally
light winds will occur ahead of the front, and gusty north winds
will follow passage of this front. Rain will increase in coverage
during the afternoon, becoming freezing rain across the Big Country.
Ceilings will drop through the afternoon. with some visibility
reduction.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Look for big weather changes during the next 24 hours. As a minor
upper-level disturbance moves over West Central Texas tonight, it
will bring the potential for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be mainly along
and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, with more favorable upper
dynamics there. In addition, low clouds will return to much of West
Central Texas overnight, as another cold front approaches from the
north. Timing of this front is critical, with respect to when winter
type precipitation will begin tomorrow. Models continue to bring the
cold front to our Interstate 20 corridor by 6 am CST tomorrow
morning. So, with that timing, we believe the winter precipitation
will not begin until tomorrow afternoon, for locations along and
north of a Mertzon, to San Angelo, to Spring Creek line. Plus, we
believe accumulation of sleet of ice will not begin until after 6 PM
CST tomorrow evening, because surface cold air advection behind the
front will not be strong enough to lower surface temperatures to or
below the freezing mark.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Another blast of winter weather will affect all of West Central
Texas in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame. Cold air
will continue to deepen across the area, with soundings showing most
areas having changed to an all winter precipitation type by
midnight. Taking a closer look at these soundings, a wedge of
warm air is seen between three-six thousand feet above the surface,
with sub-freezing air above and below this layer. This warm layer
barely reaches +3 Celsius, and the top of the saturated layer barely
touches -10/-11 Celsius (just below the dendrite growth zone). Given
this type of sounding profile, the forecast was changed to show
freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type. Some sleet
could also mix in at times, especially with any elevated convection
which develops, as the soundings show elevated instability
developing with MUCAPEs approaching 100 J/kg in the 700-450mb layer.

By Thursday afternoon, dry air will rapidly advect into the area,
allowing skies to become partly sunny from northwest to southeast
across the region. However, temperatures will be slow to recover
with most areas remaining in the 30s. Heading through the remainder
of the week and into the weekend, temperatures will continue to
moderate by 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit each day, with highs
approaching 60 degrees by Sunday, and remain in the 60s for the
first half of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  47  49  21  35  21 /  50  70  60  10   5
San Angelo  50  57  25  39  23 /  30  60  50  10   5
Junction  50  63  28  38  23 /  30  60  60  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 040000 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The low clouds have cleared out and VFR conditions have returned,
but this will not last much longer. After Midnight, low cloud
development with MVFR ceilings will affect our southern TAF sites.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight and
continue into Wednesday morning. The KABI terminal will most likely
be affected. A strong cold front will push south across west central
Texas on Wednesday. This front is expected to reach KABI shortly
before 12Z, KSJT by 16Z, and the I-10 corridor around 19Z. Geherally
light winds will occur ahead of the front, and gusty north winds
will follow passage of this front. Rain will increase in coverage
during the afternoon, becoming freezing rain across the Big Country.
Ceilings will drop through the afternoon. with some visibility
reduction.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Look for big weather changes during the next 24 hours. As a minor
upper-level disturbance moves over West Central Texas tonight, it
will bring the potential for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be mainly along
and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, with more favorable upper
dynamics there. In addition, low clouds will return to much of West
Central Texas overnight, as another cold front approaches from the
north. Timing of this front is critical, with respect to when winter
type precipitation will begin tomorrow. Models continue to bring the
cold front to our Interstate 20 corridor by 6 am CST tomorrow
morning. So, with that timing, we believe the winter precipitation
will not begin until tomorrow afternoon, for locations along and
north of a Mertzon, to San Angelo, to Spring Creek line. Plus, we
believe accumulation of sleet of ice will not begin until after 6 PM
CST tomorrow evening, because surface cold air advection behind the
front will not be strong enough to lower surface temperatures to or
below the freezing mark.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Another blast of winter weather will affect all of West Central
Texas in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame. Cold air
will continue to deepen across the area, with soundings showing most
areas having changed to an all winter precipitation type by
midnight. Taking a closer look at these soundings, a wedge of
warm air is seen between three-six thousand feet above the surface,
with sub-freezing air above and below this layer. This warm layer
barely reaches +3 Celsius, and the top of the saturated layer barely
touches -10/-11 Celsius (just below the dendrite growth zone). Given
this type of sounding profile, the forecast was changed to show
freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type. Some sleet
could also mix in at times, especially with any elevated convection
which develops, as the soundings show elevated instability
developing with MUCAPEs approaching 100 J/kg in the 700-450mb layer.

By Thursday afternoon, dry air will rapidly advect into the area,
allowing skies to become partly sunny from northwest to southeast
across the region. However, temperatures will be slow to recover
with most areas remaining in the 30s. Heading through the remainder
of the week and into the weekend, temperatures will continue to
moderate by 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit each day, with highs
approaching 60 degrees by Sunday, and remain in the 60s for the
first half of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  47  49  21  35  21 /  50  70  60  10   5
San Angelo  50  57  25  39  23 /  30  60  50  10   5
Junction  50  63  28  38  23 /  30  60  60  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 040000 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The low clouds have cleared out and VFR conditions have returned,
but this will not last much longer. After Midnight, low cloud
development with MVFR ceilings will affect our southern TAF sites.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight and
continue into Wednesday morning. The KABI terminal will most likely
be affected. A strong cold front will push south across west central
Texas on Wednesday. This front is expected to reach KABI shortly
before 12Z, KSJT by 16Z, and the I-10 corridor around 19Z. Geherally
light winds will occur ahead of the front, and gusty north winds
will follow passage of this front. Rain will increase in coverage
during the afternoon, becoming freezing rain across the Big Country.
Ceilings will drop through the afternoon. with some visibility
reduction.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Look for big weather changes during the next 24 hours. As a minor
upper-level disturbance moves over West Central Texas tonight, it
will bring the potential for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be mainly along
and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, with more favorable upper
dynamics there. In addition, low clouds will return to much of West
Central Texas overnight, as another cold front approaches from the
north. Timing of this front is critical, with respect to when winter
type precipitation will begin tomorrow. Models continue to bring the
cold front to our Interstate 20 corridor by 6 am CST tomorrow
morning. So, with that timing, we believe the winter precipitation
will not begin until tomorrow afternoon, for locations along and
north of a Mertzon, to San Angelo, to Spring Creek line. Plus, we
believe accumulation of sleet of ice will not begin until after 6 PM
CST tomorrow evening, because surface cold air advection behind the
front will not be strong enough to lower surface temperatures to or
below the freezing mark.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Another blast of winter weather will affect all of West Central
Texas in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame. Cold air
will continue to deepen across the area, with soundings showing most
areas having changed to an all winter precipitation type by
midnight. Taking a closer look at these soundings, a wedge of
warm air is seen between three-six thousand feet above the surface,
with sub-freezing air above and below this layer. This warm layer
barely reaches +3 Celsius, and the top of the saturated layer barely
touches -10/-11 Celsius (just below the dendrite growth zone). Given
this type of sounding profile, the forecast was changed to show
freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type. Some sleet
could also mix in at times, especially with any elevated convection
which develops, as the soundings show elevated instability
developing with MUCAPEs approaching 100 J/kg in the 700-450mb layer.

By Thursday afternoon, dry air will rapidly advect into the area,
allowing skies to become partly sunny from northwest to southeast
across the region. However, temperatures will be slow to recover
with most areas remaining in the 30s. Heading through the remainder
of the week and into the weekend, temperatures will continue to
moderate by 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit each day, with highs
approaching 60 degrees by Sunday, and remain in the 60s for the
first half of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  47  49  21  35  21 /  50  70  60  10   5
San Angelo  50  57  25  39  23 /  30  60  50  10   5
Junction  50  63  28  38  23 /  30  60  60  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 040000 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

The low clouds have cleared out and VFR conditions have returned,
but this will not last much longer. After Midnight, low cloud
development with MVFR ceilings will affect our southern TAF sites.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight and
continue into Wednesday morning. The KABI terminal will most likely
be affected. A strong cold front will push south across west central
Texas on Wednesday. This front is expected to reach KABI shortly
before 12Z, KSJT by 16Z, and the I-10 corridor around 19Z. Geherally
light winds will occur ahead of the front, and gusty north winds
will follow passage of this front. Rain will increase in coverage
during the afternoon, becoming freezing rain across the Big Country.
Ceilings will drop through the afternoon. with some visibility
reduction.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Look for big weather changes during the next 24 hours. As a minor
upper-level disturbance moves over West Central Texas tonight, it
will bring the potential for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be mainly along
and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, with more favorable upper
dynamics there. In addition, low clouds will return to much of West
Central Texas overnight, as another cold front approaches from the
north. Timing of this front is critical, with respect to when winter
type precipitation will begin tomorrow. Models continue to bring the
cold front to our Interstate 20 corridor by 6 am CST tomorrow
morning. So, with that timing, we believe the winter precipitation
will not begin until tomorrow afternoon, for locations along and
north of a Mertzon, to San Angelo, to Spring Creek line. Plus, we
believe accumulation of sleet of ice will not begin until after 6 PM
CST tomorrow evening, because surface cold air advection behind the
front will not be strong enough to lower surface temperatures to or
below the freezing mark.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Another blast of winter weather will affect all of West Central
Texas in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame. Cold air
will continue to deepen across the area, with soundings showing most
areas having changed to an all winter precipitation type by
midnight. Taking a closer look at these soundings, a wedge of
warm air is seen between three-six thousand feet above the surface,
with sub-freezing air above and below this layer. This warm layer
barely reaches +3 Celsius, and the top of the saturated layer barely
touches -10/-11 Celsius (just below the dendrite growth zone). Given
this type of sounding profile, the forecast was changed to show
freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type. Some sleet
could also mix in at times, especially with any elevated convection
which develops, as the soundings show elevated instability
developing with MUCAPEs approaching 100 J/kg in the 700-450mb layer.

By Thursday afternoon, dry air will rapidly advect into the area,
allowing skies to become partly sunny from northwest to southeast
across the region. However, temperatures will be slow to recover
with most areas remaining in the 30s. Heading through the remainder
of the week and into the weekend, temperatures will continue to
moderate by 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit each day, with highs
approaching 60 degrees by Sunday, and remain in the 60s for the
first half of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  47  49  21  35  21 /  50  70  60  10   5
San Angelo  50  57  25  39  23 /  30  60  50  10   5
Junction  50  63  28  38  23 /  30  60  60  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KFWD 032359 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
559 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND THE TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO
THE WEST BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE MAJOR
AIRPORTS. STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING
NORTH TEXAS AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE PERSIST UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS. THE FOG HAS
BEEN DENSE IN SOME AREAS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. WILL SHOW IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS SOME LIGHT
RAIN OVERSPREADING NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT HAVE PUSHED BACK
THE TIMING OF THIS A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH IFR CONDITIONS.

THE SUB FREEZING AIR DOESNT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
METROPLEX UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...SO WILL START THE -FZRA AT
22Z. A TRANSITION OVER TO SLEET IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING.

DUNN

&&

.SHORT TERM...

...ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  47  26  39  24 /  60  90  60  10   5
WACO, TX              56  61  30  39  24 /  40  90  70  20   5
PARIS, TX             49  50  25  39  23 /  90 100  60  10   5
DENTON, TX            44  44  24  39  23 /  70  90  50  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          45  47  25  39  24 /  70  90  60  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  48  26  40  25 /  70  90  60  10   5
TERRELL, TX           51  52  27  40  23 /  70  90  70  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         53  60  31  39  25 /  60  90  70  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  64  30  39  25 /  40  80  70  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  46  24  38  22 /  60  80  40  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>121-131>134-143>146-156>161-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 032359 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
559 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND THE TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO
THE WEST BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE MAJOR
AIRPORTS. STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING
NORTH TEXAS AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE PERSIST UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS. THE FOG HAS
BEEN DENSE IN SOME AREAS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. WILL SHOW IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS SOME LIGHT
RAIN OVERSPREADING NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT HAVE PUSHED BACK
THE TIMING OF THIS A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH IFR CONDITIONS.

THE SUB FREEZING AIR DOESNT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
METROPLEX UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...SO WILL START THE -FZRA AT
22Z. A TRANSITION OVER TO SLEET IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING.

DUNN

&&

.SHORT TERM...

...ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  47  26  39  24 /  60  90  60  10   5
WACO, TX              56  61  30  39  24 /  40  90  70  20   5
PARIS, TX             49  50  25  39  23 /  90 100  60  10   5
DENTON, TX            44  44  24  39  23 /  70  90  50  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          45  47  25  39  24 /  70  90  60  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  48  26  40  25 /  70  90  60  10   5
TERRELL, TX           51  52  27  40  23 /  70  90  70  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         53  60  31  39  25 /  60  90  70  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  64  30  39  25 /  40  80  70  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  46  24  38  22 /  60  80  40  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>121-131>134-143>146-156>161-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 032359 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
559 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND THE TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO
THE WEST BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE MAJOR
AIRPORTS. STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING
NORTH TEXAS AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE PERSIST UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS. THE FOG HAS
BEEN DENSE IN SOME AREAS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. WILL SHOW IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS SOME LIGHT
RAIN OVERSPREADING NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT HAVE PUSHED BACK
THE TIMING OF THIS A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH IFR CONDITIONS.

THE SUB FREEZING AIR DOESNT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
METROPLEX UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...SO WILL START THE -FZRA AT
22Z. A TRANSITION OVER TO SLEET IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING.

DUNN

&&

.SHORT TERM...

...ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  47  26  39  24 /  60  90  60  10   5
WACO, TX              56  61  30  39  24 /  40  90  70  20   5
PARIS, TX             49  50  25  39  23 /  90 100  60  10   5
DENTON, TX            44  44  24  39  23 /  70  90  50  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          45  47  25  39  24 /  70  90  60  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  48  26  40  25 /  70  90  60  10   5
TERRELL, TX           51  52  27  40  23 /  70  90  70  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         53  60  31  39  25 /  60  90  70  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  64  30  39  25 /  40  80  70  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  46  24  38  22 /  60  80  40  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>121-131>134-143>146-156>161-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 032359 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
559 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND THE TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACTUALLY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO
THE WEST BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE MAJOR
AIRPORTS. STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING
NORTH TEXAS AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE PERSIST UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS. THE FOG HAS
BEEN DENSE IN SOME AREAS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. WILL SHOW IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS SOME LIGHT
RAIN OVERSPREADING NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT HAVE PUSHED BACK
THE TIMING OF THIS A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO MORNING. THE COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH IFR CONDITIONS.

THE SUB FREEZING AIR DOESNT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
METROPLEX UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...SO WILL START THE -FZRA AT
22Z. A TRANSITION OVER TO SLEET IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING.

DUNN

&&

.SHORT TERM...

...ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  47  26  39  24 /  60  90  60  10   5
WACO, TX              56  61  30  39  24 /  40  90  70  20   5
PARIS, TX             49  50  25  39  23 /  90 100  60  10   5
DENTON, TX            44  44  24  39  23 /  70  90  50  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          45  47  25  39  24 /  70  90  60  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  48  26  40  25 /  70  90  60  10   5
TERRELL, TX           51  52  27  40  23 /  70  90  70  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         53  60  31  39  25 /  60  90  70  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  64  30  39  25 /  40  80  70  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  46  24  38  22 /  60  80  40  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>121-131>134-143>146-156>161-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 032358
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
558 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES AT 2330Z WILL LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
EVENING. KGLS HAD SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND SHOULD SEE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO SINCE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FACT
MAY ALONG HELP KEEP SEA FOG FROM BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. SOME
FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BUT DENSE FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT A WARM START TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

A WARM AND WET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED BUT THERE COULD BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR COLLEGE
STATION BY MID AFTERNOON...HOUSTON BY 7PM AND OFF THE COAST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LINGERING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...OR
EVEN SOME SLEET...ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT SOME ELEVATED ROADWAYS MAY BECOME SLICK
WHERE WINTER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...ENDING THE
THREAT. FRIDAY WILL START QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE UPPER 20S AND A LIGHT FREEZE
EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. 33/38

MARINE...
FOG APPEARS TO HAVE LIFTED OVER PARTS OF THE BAYS/INTRACOASTAL
WATER- WAYS THIS AFTN...BUT LOCAL WEBCAMS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
FOG BANKS HAVE YET TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. AS SUCH...NO CHANGES
FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE FOR OUR MARINE AREAS
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT (AND WHICH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FURTHER FOR
MOST OF TOMORROW). NO CHANGES EITHER WITH THE FCST OF VERY
STRONG/GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS DEV- ELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED. GALE WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN THE FCST FOR WEDS
NIGHT/THURS...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE
UPGRADED TO WARNINGS BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF PROLONGED NORTHERLY WINDS COULD ALSO PRODUCE ISSUES WITH LOW
WATERS LEVELS FOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAYS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  70  32  37  27 /  30  80  60  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  76  37  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  71  41  42  35 /  20  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40



000
FXUS64 KHGX 032358
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
558 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES AT 2330Z WILL LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
EVENING. KGLS HAD SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND SHOULD SEE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO SINCE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FACT
MAY ALONG HELP KEEP SEA FOG FROM BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. SOME
FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BUT DENSE FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT A WARM START TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

A WARM AND WET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED BUT THERE COULD BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR COLLEGE
STATION BY MID AFTERNOON...HOUSTON BY 7PM AND OFF THE COAST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LINGERING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...OR
EVEN SOME SLEET...ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT SOME ELEVATED ROADWAYS MAY BECOME SLICK
WHERE WINTER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...ENDING THE
THREAT. FRIDAY WILL START QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE UPPER 20S AND A LIGHT FREEZE
EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. 33/38

MARINE...
FOG APPEARS TO HAVE LIFTED OVER PARTS OF THE BAYS/INTRACOASTAL
WATER- WAYS THIS AFTN...BUT LOCAL WEBCAMS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
FOG BANKS HAVE YET TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. AS SUCH...NO CHANGES
FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE FOR OUR MARINE AREAS
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT (AND WHICH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FURTHER FOR
MOST OF TOMORROW). NO CHANGES EITHER WITH THE FCST OF VERY
STRONG/GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS DEV- ELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED. GALE WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN THE FCST FOR WEDS
NIGHT/THURS...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE
UPGRADED TO WARNINGS BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF PROLONGED NORTHERLY WINDS COULD ALSO PRODUCE ISSUES WITH LOW
WATERS LEVELS FOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAYS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  70  32  37  27 /  30  80  60  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  76  37  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  71  41  42  35 /  20  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40



000
FXUS64 KHGX 032358
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
558 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES AT 2330Z WILL LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
EVENING. KGLS HAD SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND SHOULD SEE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO SINCE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FACT
MAY ALONG HELP KEEP SEA FOG FROM BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. SOME
FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BUT DENSE FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT A WARM START TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

A WARM AND WET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED BUT THERE COULD BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR COLLEGE
STATION BY MID AFTERNOON...HOUSTON BY 7PM AND OFF THE COAST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LINGERING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...OR
EVEN SOME SLEET...ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT SOME ELEVATED ROADWAYS MAY BECOME SLICK
WHERE WINTER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...ENDING THE
THREAT. FRIDAY WILL START QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE UPPER 20S AND A LIGHT FREEZE
EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. 33/38

MARINE...
FOG APPEARS TO HAVE LIFTED OVER PARTS OF THE BAYS/INTRACOASTAL
WATER- WAYS THIS AFTN...BUT LOCAL WEBCAMS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
FOG BANKS HAVE YET TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. AS SUCH...NO CHANGES
FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE FOR OUR MARINE AREAS
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT (AND WHICH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FURTHER FOR
MOST OF TOMORROW). NO CHANGES EITHER WITH THE FCST OF VERY
STRONG/GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS DEV- ELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED. GALE WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN THE FCST FOR WEDS
NIGHT/THURS...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE
UPGRADED TO WARNINGS BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF PROLONGED NORTHERLY WINDS COULD ALSO PRODUCE ISSUES WITH LOW
WATERS LEVELS FOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAYS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  70  32  37  27 /  30  80  60  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  76  37  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  71  41  42  35 /  20  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 032358
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
558 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES AT 2330Z WILL LOWER FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
EVENING. KGLS HAD SEA FOG DEVELOPING AND SHOULD SEE LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY THAN 24 HOURS AGO SINCE THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS WELL INLAND THIS EVENING. THIS FACT
MAY ALONG HELP KEEP SEA FOG FROM BEING PREDOMINATE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG INVERSION WILL KEEP THE LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT SUNRISE SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO
IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z. SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY EVENING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. SOME
FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BUT DENSE FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT A WARM START TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

A WARM AND WET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED BUT THERE COULD BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR COLLEGE
STATION BY MID AFTERNOON...HOUSTON BY 7PM AND OFF THE COAST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LINGERING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...OR
EVEN SOME SLEET...ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT SOME ELEVATED ROADWAYS MAY BECOME SLICK
WHERE WINTER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...ENDING THE
THREAT. FRIDAY WILL START QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE UPPER 20S AND A LIGHT FREEZE
EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. 33/38

MARINE...
FOG APPEARS TO HAVE LIFTED OVER PARTS OF THE BAYS/INTRACOASTAL
WATER- WAYS THIS AFTN...BUT LOCAL WEBCAMS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
FOG BANKS HAVE YET TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. AS SUCH...NO CHANGES
FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE FOR OUR MARINE AREAS
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT (AND WHICH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FURTHER FOR
MOST OF TOMORROW). NO CHANGES EITHER WITH THE FCST OF VERY
STRONG/GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS DEV- ELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED. GALE WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN THE FCST FOR WEDS
NIGHT/THURS...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE
UPGRADED TO WARNINGS BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF PROLONGED NORTHERLY WINDS COULD ALSO PRODUCE ISSUES WITH LOW
WATERS LEVELS FOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAYS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  70  32  37  27 /  30  80  60  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  76  37  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  71  41  42  35 /  20  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KCRP 032346 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
546 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WAS WEST OF VCT TO RKP TO NGP TO BAFFIN
BAY...THEN SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE BUT NORTH OF LRD. TO THE NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...CEILINGS REMAIN IFR WITH FOG REDUCING VSBY TO 2-4 SM.
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY...SKIES WERE CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDS. TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...MVFR CEILINGS WERE
PREVALENT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENIG
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD. BUT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUATION
OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG BY 05-06Z FOR COASTAL PLAINS
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL REACH
LRD AGAIN AROUND 07Z WITH LIFR CONDS BY 10Z. EXPECT SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY 15-16Z...THEN MVFR BY 18-19Z FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS WITH VFR CONDS FOR LRD. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVER THE COASTAL
BEND BY 21Z WED...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE VCT AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...LOCATIONS REMAINED
SOCKED IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS THE
EAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WITH MID
70S TOWARD THE VICTORIA AREA AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID 50S GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. SOME THINNING IN
CLOUDS IS BEING OBSERVED ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS...SO
STILL HAVE TEMPS INCREASING TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS AND A RETURN OF
FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SEA FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO START
MOVING INLAND BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS SHOW FOG SPREADING
FARTHER WEST...SO HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH PATCHY ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST. DENSE FOG CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY FROM AND EAST OF AN ALICE-GEORGE WEST-VICTORIA
LINE.

DID CUT BACK ON TIMING AND WORDING OF POPS HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A COASTAL TROUGH OVERHEAD SHIFTS TO THE
WEST...MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THE LACK OF DECENT CAPE IN THE
MORNING SHOULD LEND TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ADDED IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS BRING THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
1040 HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AREA-WIDE.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF THE FRONT
HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TIMING
OF WINDS AND COLD AIR TO ROUGHLY AFTER 9PM WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. MODEL PROFILE SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WARM KEEPING PRECIP AS RAIN...WITH WINTRY
PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY START OF LONG TERM PERIOD. PEAK OF STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW AREAWIDE WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A CORE OF 50 KT
WINDS AT 925MB NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE MORNING WITH ONLY A VERY TEMPERED
RISE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE PROG TO BE 30 TO
40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS A 1040MB SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS INTO TEXAS. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE ANY FROZEN PRECIP CAN DEVELOP. SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
SPREADS BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BEING RATHER PROGRESSIVE
IN SHIFTING A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUDNAY
WHILE THE ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM...NOT
BRINGING IT THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF AND CMC WHICH RESULTS IN MOISTURE POOLING SOME ACROSS THE AREA
AND AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING. TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO BE EAST OF
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. AFTER CHILLY
CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK...ONLY A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS IS PROG TO OCCUR WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST. THANKS TO EWX FOR
COLLABORATION TODAY.

MARINE...DENSE FOG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL CONTINUE A GALE WATCH FOR THE MARINE ZONES LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT MODEL CONSISTENCY...A
GALE WARNING MAY LIKELY BE ISSUED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  77  38  42  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
VICTORIA          62  73  35  39  33  /  20  30  60  20  10
LAREDO            61  81  39  43  38  /  10  10  60  20  10
ALICE             62  79  37  41  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
ROCKPORT          61  70  38  43  36  /  10  20  60  30  10
COTULLA           58  78  36  44  35  /  20  30  60  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  81  38  42  38  /  20  20  60  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  71  39  43  38  /  10  20  60  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 032346 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
546 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WAS WEST OF VCT TO RKP TO NGP TO BAFFIN
BAY...THEN SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE BUT NORTH OF LRD. TO THE NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...CEILINGS REMAIN IFR WITH FOG REDUCING VSBY TO 2-4 SM.
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY...SKIES WERE CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDS. TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...MVFR CEILINGS WERE
PREVALENT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENIG
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD. BUT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUATION
OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG BY 05-06Z FOR COASTAL PLAINS
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL REACH
LRD AGAIN AROUND 07Z WITH LIFR CONDS BY 10Z. EXPECT SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY 15-16Z...THEN MVFR BY 18-19Z FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS WITH VFR CONDS FOR LRD. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVER THE COASTAL
BEND BY 21Z WED...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE VCT AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...LOCATIONS REMAINED
SOCKED IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS THE
EAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WITH MID
70S TOWARD THE VICTORIA AREA AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID 50S GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. SOME THINNING IN
CLOUDS IS BEING OBSERVED ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS...SO
STILL HAVE TEMPS INCREASING TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS AND A RETURN OF
FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SEA FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO START
MOVING INLAND BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS SHOW FOG SPREADING
FARTHER WEST...SO HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH PATCHY ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST. DENSE FOG CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY FROM AND EAST OF AN ALICE-GEORGE WEST-VICTORIA
LINE.

DID CUT BACK ON TIMING AND WORDING OF POPS HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A COASTAL TROUGH OVERHEAD SHIFTS TO THE
WEST...MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THE LACK OF DECENT CAPE IN THE
MORNING SHOULD LEND TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ADDED IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS BRING THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
1040 HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AREA-WIDE.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF THE FRONT
HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TIMING
OF WINDS AND COLD AIR TO ROUGHLY AFTER 9PM WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. MODEL PROFILE SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WARM KEEPING PRECIP AS RAIN...WITH WINTRY
PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY START OF LONG TERM PERIOD. PEAK OF STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW AREAWIDE WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A CORE OF 50 KT
WINDS AT 925MB NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE MORNING WITH ONLY A VERY TEMPERED
RISE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE PROG TO BE 30 TO
40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS A 1040MB SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS INTO TEXAS. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE ANY FROZEN PRECIP CAN DEVELOP. SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
SPREADS BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BEING RATHER PROGRESSIVE
IN SHIFTING A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUDNAY
WHILE THE ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM...NOT
BRINGING IT THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF AND CMC WHICH RESULTS IN MOISTURE POOLING SOME ACROSS THE AREA
AND AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING. TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO BE EAST OF
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. AFTER CHILLY
CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK...ONLY A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS IS PROG TO OCCUR WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST. THANKS TO EWX FOR
COLLABORATION TODAY.

MARINE...DENSE FOG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL CONTINUE A GALE WATCH FOR THE MARINE ZONES LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT MODEL CONSISTENCY...A
GALE WARNING MAY LIKELY BE ISSUED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  77  38  42  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
VICTORIA          62  73  35  39  33  /  20  30  60  20  10
LAREDO            61  81  39  43  38  /  10  10  60  20  10
ALICE             62  79  37  41  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
ROCKPORT          61  70  38  43  36  /  10  20  60  30  10
COTULLA           58  78  36  44  35  /  20  30  60  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  81  38  42  38  /  20  20  60  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  71  39  43  38  /  10  20  60  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 032346 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
546 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WAS WEST OF VCT TO RKP TO NGP TO BAFFIN
BAY...THEN SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE BUT NORTH OF LRD. TO THE NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...CEILINGS REMAIN IFR WITH FOG REDUCING VSBY TO 2-4 SM.
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY...SKIES WERE CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDS. TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...MVFR CEILINGS WERE
PREVALENT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENIG
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD. BUT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUATION
OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG BY 05-06Z FOR COASTAL PLAINS
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL REACH
LRD AGAIN AROUND 07Z WITH LIFR CONDS BY 10Z. EXPECT SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY 15-16Z...THEN MVFR BY 18-19Z FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS WITH VFR CONDS FOR LRD. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVER THE COASTAL
BEND BY 21Z WED...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE VCT AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...LOCATIONS REMAINED
SOCKED IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS THE
EAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WITH MID
70S TOWARD THE VICTORIA AREA AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID 50S GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. SOME THINNING IN
CLOUDS IS BEING OBSERVED ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS...SO
STILL HAVE TEMPS INCREASING TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS AND A RETURN OF
FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SEA FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO START
MOVING INLAND BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS SHOW FOG SPREADING
FARTHER WEST...SO HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH PATCHY ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST. DENSE FOG CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY FROM AND EAST OF AN ALICE-GEORGE WEST-VICTORIA
LINE.

DID CUT BACK ON TIMING AND WORDING OF POPS HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A COASTAL TROUGH OVERHEAD SHIFTS TO THE
WEST...MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THE LACK OF DECENT CAPE IN THE
MORNING SHOULD LEND TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ADDED IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS BRING THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
1040 HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AREA-WIDE.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF THE FRONT
HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TIMING
OF WINDS AND COLD AIR TO ROUGHLY AFTER 9PM WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. MODEL PROFILE SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WARM KEEPING PRECIP AS RAIN...WITH WINTRY
PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY START OF LONG TERM PERIOD. PEAK OF STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW AREAWIDE WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A CORE OF 50 KT
WINDS AT 925MB NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE MORNING WITH ONLY A VERY TEMPERED
RISE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE PROG TO BE 30 TO
40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS A 1040MB SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS INTO TEXAS. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE ANY FROZEN PRECIP CAN DEVELOP. SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
SPREADS BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BEING RATHER PROGRESSIVE
IN SHIFTING A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUDNAY
WHILE THE ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM...NOT
BRINGING IT THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF AND CMC WHICH RESULTS IN MOISTURE POOLING SOME ACROSS THE AREA
AND AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING. TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO BE EAST OF
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. AFTER CHILLY
CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK...ONLY A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS IS PROG TO OCCUR WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST. THANKS TO EWX FOR
COLLABORATION TODAY.

MARINE...DENSE FOG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL CONTINUE A GALE WATCH FOR THE MARINE ZONES LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT MODEL CONSISTENCY...A
GALE WARNING MAY LIKELY BE ISSUED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  77  38  42  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
VICTORIA          62  73  35  39  33  /  20  30  60  20  10
LAREDO            61  81  39  43  38  /  10  10  60  20  10
ALICE             62  79  37  41  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
ROCKPORT          61  70  38  43  36  /  10  20  60  30  10
COTULLA           58  78  36  44  35  /  20  30  60  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  81  38  42  38  /  20  20  60  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  71  39  43  38  /  10  20  60  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 032346 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
546 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WAS WEST OF VCT TO RKP TO NGP TO BAFFIN
BAY...THEN SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE BUT NORTH OF LRD. TO THE NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...CEILINGS REMAIN IFR WITH FOG REDUCING VSBY TO 2-4 SM.
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY...SKIES WERE CLEARING
WITH VFR CONDS. TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...MVFR CEILINGS WERE
PREVALENT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENIG
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD. BUT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUATION
OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG BY 05-06Z FOR COASTAL PLAINS
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL REACH
LRD AGAIN AROUND 07Z WITH LIFR CONDS BY 10Z. EXPECT SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY 15-16Z...THEN MVFR BY 18-19Z FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS WITH VFR CONDS FOR LRD. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OVER THE COASTAL
BEND BY 21Z WED...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE VCT AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...LOCATIONS REMAINED
SOCKED IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS THE
EAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WITH MID
70S TOWARD THE VICTORIA AREA AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID 50S GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. SOME THINNING IN
CLOUDS IS BEING OBSERVED ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS...SO
STILL HAVE TEMPS INCREASING TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS AND A RETURN OF
FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SEA FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO START
MOVING INLAND BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS SHOW FOG SPREADING
FARTHER WEST...SO HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH PATCHY ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST. DENSE FOG CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY FROM AND EAST OF AN ALICE-GEORGE WEST-VICTORIA
LINE.

DID CUT BACK ON TIMING AND WORDING OF POPS HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A COASTAL TROUGH OVERHEAD SHIFTS TO THE
WEST...MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THE LACK OF DECENT CAPE IN THE
MORNING SHOULD LEND TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ADDED IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS BRING THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
1040 HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AREA-WIDE.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF THE FRONT
HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TIMING
OF WINDS AND COLD AIR TO ROUGHLY AFTER 9PM WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. MODEL PROFILE SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WARM KEEPING PRECIP AS RAIN...WITH WINTRY
PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY START OF LONG TERM PERIOD. PEAK OF STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW AREAWIDE WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A CORE OF 50 KT
WINDS AT 925MB NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE MORNING WITH ONLY A VERY TEMPERED
RISE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE PROG TO BE 30 TO
40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS A 1040MB SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS INTO TEXAS. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE ANY FROZEN PRECIP CAN DEVELOP. SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
SPREADS BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BEING RATHER PROGRESSIVE
IN SHIFTING A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUDNAY
WHILE THE ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM...NOT
BRINGING IT THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF AND CMC WHICH RESULTS IN MOISTURE POOLING SOME ACROSS THE AREA
AND AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING. TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO BE EAST OF
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. AFTER CHILLY
CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK...ONLY A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS IS PROG TO OCCUR WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST. THANKS TO EWX FOR
COLLABORATION TODAY.

MARINE...DENSE FOG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL CONTINUE A GALE WATCH FOR THE MARINE ZONES LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT MODEL CONSISTENCY...A
GALE WARNING MAY LIKELY BE ISSUED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  77  38  42  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
VICTORIA          62  73  35  39  33  /  20  30  60  20  10
LAREDO            61  81  39  43  38  /  10  10  60  20  10
ALICE             62  79  37  41  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
ROCKPORT          61  70  38  43  36  /  10  20  60  30  10
COTULLA           58  78  36  44  35  /  20  30  60  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  81  38  42  38  /  20  20  60  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  71  39  43  38  /  10  20  60  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KAMA 032339 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
539 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GO DOWNHILL BOTH IN THE CEILING
DEPARTMENT AND THE VISIBILITY DEPARTMENT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD VISIT
THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES FIRST...MAYBE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN THE
RAIN SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE IN THESE AREAS. SNOW
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT IT COULD SHUT OFF AT GUY
BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

AT AMA...CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SNOW TOWARD
SUNRISE. THEN SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL TAF STIES OVERNIGHT AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
THESE TWO FEATURES IN PHASE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
TONIGHT. A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS HAS
ALREADY FORCED A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
HANDLED THESE SCENARIOS PARTICULARLY WELL LATELY WITH A TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER INTRUSION OF COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IN ADDITION TO
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH STREAMING THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
MARKEDLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION AND EXTENSIVENESS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ICE CRYSTAL INTRODUCTION INITIALLY
WITH 12Z NAM TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT TOMORROW THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND FOR POTENTIALLY LOWER
AMOUNTS THAT CURRENT IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW SNOW ACCUMULATION
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
MORE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE DURATION OF MIX PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD LAST LONGER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND POSSIBLY SLEET. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW COLD SUB-FREEZING LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET. COLUMN COOLING WITH CONTINUED
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE NORTH AND BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE SOUTH.

OUR GUESS AT TIMING IS DETAILED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
PRODUCT WHICH HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO SEGMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION. IMPACT FROM TRAVEL MAY OCCUR INITIALLY
FROM THE COMBINATION OF RAIN PRECEDING THE COLD SURGE THAT FREEZES ON
ROAD SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 20S...AND A PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT MAY HAPPEN UNTIL SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT
OCCURS FOR ALL SNOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION INCLUDING
SNOW PACKED ROADS INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. 20-25
KNOT POST FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AS RATIOS INCREASE
LATER IN THE EVENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXTENDED THEN WITH THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW FAR EAST THE
UPPER RIDGE CAN BUILD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
CONSEQUENTLY HOW WARM WE WILL BE. TEMPERATURE SHOULD REACH AT LEAST
NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MARCH BY THE WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...
     CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...
     TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/18





000
FXUS64 KAMA 032339 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
539 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GO DOWNHILL BOTH IN THE CEILING
DEPARTMENT AND THE VISIBILITY DEPARTMENT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD VISIT
THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES FIRST...MAYBE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN THE
RAIN SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE IN THESE AREAS. SNOW
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT IT COULD SHUT OFF AT GUY
BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

AT AMA...CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SNOW TOWARD
SUNRISE. THEN SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL TAF STIES OVERNIGHT AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
THESE TWO FEATURES IN PHASE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
TONIGHT. A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS HAS
ALREADY FORCED A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
HANDLED THESE SCENARIOS PARTICULARLY WELL LATELY WITH A TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER INTRUSION OF COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IN ADDITION TO
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH STREAMING THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
MARKEDLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION AND EXTENSIVENESS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ICE CRYSTAL INTRODUCTION INITIALLY
WITH 12Z NAM TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT TOMORROW THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND FOR POTENTIALLY LOWER
AMOUNTS THAT CURRENT IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW SNOW ACCUMULATION
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
MORE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE DURATION OF MIX PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD LAST LONGER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND POSSIBLY SLEET. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW COLD SUB-FREEZING LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET. COLUMN COOLING WITH CONTINUED
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE NORTH AND BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE SOUTH.

OUR GUESS AT TIMING IS DETAILED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
PRODUCT WHICH HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO SEGMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION. IMPACT FROM TRAVEL MAY OCCUR INITIALLY
FROM THE COMBINATION OF RAIN PRECEDING THE COLD SURGE THAT FREEZES ON
ROAD SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 20S...AND A PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT MAY HAPPEN UNTIL SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT
OCCURS FOR ALL SNOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION INCLUDING
SNOW PACKED ROADS INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. 20-25
KNOT POST FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AS RATIOS INCREASE
LATER IN THE EVENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXTENDED THEN WITH THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW FAR EAST THE
UPPER RIDGE CAN BUILD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
CONSEQUENTLY HOW WARM WE WILL BE. TEMPERATURE SHOULD REACH AT LEAST
NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MARCH BY THE WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...
     CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...
     TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/18






000
FXUS64 KAMA 032339 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
539 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GO DOWNHILL BOTH IN THE CEILING
DEPARTMENT AND THE VISIBILITY DEPARTMENT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD VISIT
THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES FIRST...MAYBE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN THE
RAIN SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE IN THESE AREAS. SNOW
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT IT COULD SHUT OFF AT GUY
BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

AT AMA...CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SNOW TOWARD
SUNRISE. THEN SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL TAF STIES OVERNIGHT AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
THESE TWO FEATURES IN PHASE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
TONIGHT. A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS HAS
ALREADY FORCED A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
HANDLED THESE SCENARIOS PARTICULARLY WELL LATELY WITH A TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER INTRUSION OF COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IN ADDITION TO
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH STREAMING THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
MARKEDLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION AND EXTENSIVENESS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ICE CRYSTAL INTRODUCTION INITIALLY
WITH 12Z NAM TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT TOMORROW THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND FOR POTENTIALLY LOWER
AMOUNTS THAT CURRENT IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW SNOW ACCUMULATION
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
MORE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE DURATION OF MIX PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD LAST LONGER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND POSSIBLY SLEET. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW COLD SUB-FREEZING LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET. COLUMN COOLING WITH CONTINUED
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE NORTH AND BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE SOUTH.

OUR GUESS AT TIMING IS DETAILED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
PRODUCT WHICH HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO SEGMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION. IMPACT FROM TRAVEL MAY OCCUR INITIALLY
FROM THE COMBINATION OF RAIN PRECEDING THE COLD SURGE THAT FREEZES ON
ROAD SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 20S...AND A PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT MAY HAPPEN UNTIL SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT
OCCURS FOR ALL SNOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION INCLUDING
SNOW PACKED ROADS INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. 20-25
KNOT POST FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AS RATIOS INCREASE
LATER IN THE EVENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXTENDED THEN WITH THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW FAR EAST THE
UPPER RIDGE CAN BUILD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
CONSEQUENTLY HOW WARM WE WILL BE. TEMPERATURE SHOULD REACH AT LEAST
NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MARCH BY THE WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...
     CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...
     TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/18





000
FXUS64 KAMA 032339 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
539 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GO DOWNHILL BOTH IN THE CEILING
DEPARTMENT AND THE VISIBILITY DEPARTMENT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD VISIT
THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES FIRST...MAYBE AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN THE
RAIN SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE IN THESE AREAS. SNOW
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT IT COULD SHUT OFF AT GUY
BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST.

AT AMA...CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO SNOW TOWARD
SUNRISE. THEN SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL TAF STIES OVERNIGHT AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
THESE TWO FEATURES IN PHASE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
TONIGHT. A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS HAS
ALREADY FORCED A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
HANDLED THESE SCENARIOS PARTICULARLY WELL LATELY WITH A TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER INTRUSION OF COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IN ADDITION TO
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH STREAMING THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
MARKEDLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION AND EXTENSIVENESS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ICE CRYSTAL INTRODUCTION INITIALLY
WITH 12Z NAM TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT TOMORROW THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND FOR POTENTIALLY LOWER
AMOUNTS THAT CURRENT IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW SNOW ACCUMULATION
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
MORE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE DURATION OF MIX PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD LAST LONGER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND POSSIBLY SLEET. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW COLD SUB-FREEZING LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET. COLUMN COOLING WITH CONTINUED
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE NORTH AND BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE SOUTH.

OUR GUESS AT TIMING IS DETAILED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
PRODUCT WHICH HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO SEGMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION. IMPACT FROM TRAVEL MAY OCCUR INITIALLY
FROM THE COMBINATION OF RAIN PRECEDING THE COLD SURGE THAT FREEZES ON
ROAD SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 20S...AND A PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT MAY HAPPEN UNTIL SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT
OCCURS FOR ALL SNOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION INCLUDING
SNOW PACKED ROADS INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. 20-25
KNOT POST FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AS RATIOS INCREASE
LATER IN THE EVENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXTENDED THEN WITH THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW FAR EAST THE
UPPER RIDGE CAN BUILD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
CONSEQUENTLY HOW WARM WE WILL BE. TEMPERATURE SHOULD REACH AT LEAST
NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MARCH BY THE WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...
     CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...
     TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/18






000
FXUS64 KLUB 032338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...THEN
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH. A
STRAY RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 5 UTC AND 11 UTC. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO IFR OR LIFR. AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WITH ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT
KLBB. NE SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  40  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  50  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  50  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  50  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 032338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...THEN
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH. A
STRAY RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 5 UTC AND 11 UTC. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO IFR OR LIFR. AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WITH ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT
KLBB. NE SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  40  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  50  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  50  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  50  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 032338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...THEN
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH. A
STRAY RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 5 UTC AND 11 UTC. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO IFR OR LIFR. AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WITH ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT
KLBB. NE SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  40  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  50  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  50  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  50  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 032338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...THEN
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH. A
STRAY RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 5 UTC AND 11 UTC. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO IFR OR LIFR. AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WITH ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT
KLBB. NE SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  40  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  50  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  50  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  50  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 032338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...THEN
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH. A
STRAY RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 5 UTC AND 11 UTC. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO IFR OR LIFR. AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WITH ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT
KLBB. NE SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  40  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  50  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  50  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  50  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

33



000
FXUS64 KLUB 032338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
538 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...THEN
DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH. A
STRAY RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 5 UTC AND 11 UTC. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL
QUICKLY FILL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO IFR OR LIFR. AREAS OF FREEZING PRECIP WILL DEVELOP WITH ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A STRONG
POSSIBILITY THAT AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED AT
KLBB. NE SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  40  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  50  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  50  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  50  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS64 KBRO 032336 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
536 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...A STRATUS DECK AROUND
1K FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WITH MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE. THE
TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC VISIBILITIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MODERATE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MORE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. ON WEDNESDAY...FULL VFR WILL RETURN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV



000
FXUS64 KBRO 032336 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
536 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...A STRATUS DECK AROUND
1K FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WITH MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE. THE
TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC VISIBILITIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MODERATE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MORE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. ON WEDNESDAY...FULL VFR WILL RETURN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KBRO 032336 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
536 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...A STRATUS DECK AROUND
1K FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WITH MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE. THE
TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC VISIBILITIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MODERATE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MORE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. ON WEDNESDAY...FULL VFR WILL RETURN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV



000
FXUS64 KBRO 032336 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
536 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...A STRATUS DECK AROUND
1K FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET WITH MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE. THE
TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC VISIBILITIES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MODERATE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT
MORE DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. ON WEDNESDAY...FULL VFR WILL RETURN
IN ADVANCE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KSJT 032156
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
356 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Look for big weather changes during the next 24 hours. As a minor
upper-level disturbance moves over West Central Texas tonight, it
will bring the potential for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be mainly along
and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, with more favorable upper
dynamics there. In addition, low clouds will return to much of West
Central Texas overnight, as another cold front approaches from the
north. Timing of this front is critical, with respect to when winter
type precipitation will begin tomorrow. Models continue to bring the
cold front to our Interstate 20 corridor by 6 am CST tomorrow
morning. So, with that timing, we believe the winter precipitation
will not begin until tomorrow afternoon, for locations along and
north of a Mertzon, to San Angelo, to Spring Creek line. Plus, we
believe accumulation of sleet of ice will not begin until after 6 PM
CST tomorrow evening, because surface cold air advection behind the
front will not be strong enough to lower surface temperatures to or
below the freezing mark.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Another blast of winter weather will affect all of West Central
Texas in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame. Cold air
will continue to deepen across the area, with soundings showing most
areas having changed to an all winter precipitation type by
midnight. Taking a closer look at these soundings, a wedge of
warm air is seen between three-six thousand feet above the surface,
with sub-freezing air above and below this layer. This warm layer
barely reaches +3 Celsius, and the top of the saturated layer barely
touches -10/-11 Celsius (just below the dendrite growth zone). Given
this type of sounding profile, the forecast was changed to show
freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type. Some sleet
could also mix in at times, especially with any elevated convection
which develops, as the soundings show elevated instability
developing with MUCAPEs approaching 100 J/kg in the 700-450mb layer.

By Thursday afternoon, dry air will rapidly advect into the area,
allowing skies to become partly sunny from northwest to southeast
across the region. However, temperatures will be slow to recover
with most areas remaining in the 30s. Heading through the remainder
of the week and into the weekend, temperatures will continue to
moderate by 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit each day, with highs
approaching 60 degrees by Sunday, and remain in the 60s for the
first half of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  47  49  21  35  21 /  50  70  60  10   5
San Angelo  50  57  25  39  23 /  30  60  50  10   5
Junction  50  63  28  38  23 /  30  60  60  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Huber/Doll







000
FXUS64 KSJT 032156
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
356 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Look for big weather changes during the next 24 hours. As a minor
upper-level disturbance moves over West Central Texas tonight, it
will bring the potential for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be mainly along
and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, with more favorable upper
dynamics there. In addition, low clouds will return to much of West
Central Texas overnight, as another cold front approaches from the
north. Timing of this front is critical, with respect to when winter
type precipitation will begin tomorrow. Models continue to bring the
cold front to our Interstate 20 corridor by 6 am CST tomorrow
morning. So, with that timing, we believe the winter precipitation
will not begin until tomorrow afternoon, for locations along and
north of a Mertzon, to San Angelo, to Spring Creek line. Plus, we
believe accumulation of sleet of ice will not begin until after 6 PM
CST tomorrow evening, because surface cold air advection behind the
front will not be strong enough to lower surface temperatures to or
below the freezing mark.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Another blast of winter weather will affect all of West Central
Texas in the Wednesday night/Thursday morning time frame. Cold air
will continue to deepen across the area, with soundings showing most
areas having changed to an all winter precipitation type by
midnight. Taking a closer look at these soundings, a wedge of
warm air is seen between three-six thousand feet above the surface,
with sub-freezing air above and below this layer. This warm layer
barely reaches +3 Celsius, and the top of the saturated layer barely
touches -10/-11 Celsius (just below the dendrite growth zone). Given
this type of sounding profile, the forecast was changed to show
freezing rain as the predominant precipitation type. Some sleet
could also mix in at times, especially with any elevated convection
which develops, as the soundings show elevated instability
developing with MUCAPEs approaching 100 J/kg in the 700-450mb layer.

By Thursday afternoon, dry air will rapidly advect into the area,
allowing skies to become partly sunny from northwest to southeast
across the region. However, temperatures will be slow to recover
with most areas remaining in the 30s. Heading through the remainder
of the week and into the weekend, temperatures will continue to
moderate by 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit each day, with highs
approaching 60 degrees by Sunday, and remain in the 60s for the
first half of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  47  49  21  35  21 /  50  70  60  10   5
San Angelo  50  57  25  39  23 /  30  60  50  10   5
Junction  50  63  28  38  23 /  30  60  60  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Huber/Doll








000
FXUS64 KHGX 032135
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. SOME
FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BUT DENSE FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT A WARM START TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

A WARM AND WET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED BUT THERE COULD BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR COLLEGE
STATION BY MID AFTERNOON...HOUSTON BY 7PM AND OFF THE COAST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LINGERING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...OR
EVEN SOME SLEET...ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT SOME ELEVATED ROADWAYS MAY BECOME SLICK
WHERE WINTER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...ENDING THE
THREAT. FRIDAY WILL START QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE UPPER 20S AND A LIGHT FREEZE
EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. 33/38

&&

.MARINE...
FOG APPEARS TO HAVE LIFTED OVER PARTS OF THE BAYS/INTRACOASTAL
WATER- WAYS THIS AFTN...BUT LOCAL WEBCAMS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
FOG BANKS HAVE YET TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. AS SUCH...NO CHANGES
FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE FOR OUR MARINE AREAS
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT (AND WHICH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FURTHER FOR
MOST OF TOMORROW). NO CHANGES EITHER WITH THE FCST OF VERY
STRONG/GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS DEV- ELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED. GALE WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN THE FCST FOR WEDS
NIGHT/THURS...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE
UPGRADED TO WARNINGS BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THE LIKELI- HOOD
OF PROLONGED NORTHERLY WINDS COULD ALSO PRODUCE ISSUES WITH LOW
WATERS LEVELS FOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAYS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  70  32  37  27 /  30  80  60  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  76  37  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  71  41  42  35 /  20  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33/38
AVIATION/MARINE...41




000
FXUS64 KHGX 032135
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. SOME
FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BUT DENSE FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT A WARM START TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

A WARM AND WET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED BUT THERE COULD BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR COLLEGE
STATION BY MID AFTERNOON...HOUSTON BY 7PM AND OFF THE COAST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LIGHT RAIN LINGERING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...OR
EVEN SOME SLEET...ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT SOME ELEVATED ROADWAYS MAY BECOME SLICK
WHERE WINTER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY MORNING...ENDING THE
THREAT. FRIDAY WILL START QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE UPPER 20S AND A LIGHT FREEZE
EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. 33/38

&&

.MARINE...
FOG APPEARS TO HAVE LIFTED OVER PARTS OF THE BAYS/INTRACOASTAL
WATER- WAYS THIS AFTN...BUT LOCAL WEBCAMS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
FOG BANKS HAVE YET TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. AS SUCH...NO CHANGES
FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE FOR OUR MARINE AREAS
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT (AND WHICH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FURTHER FOR
MOST OF TOMORROW). NO CHANGES EITHER WITH THE FCST OF VERY
STRONG/GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS DEV- ELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED. GALE WATCHES ARE ALREADY IN THE FCST FOR WEDS
NIGHT/THURS...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE
UPGRADED TO WARNINGS BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THE LIKELI- HOOD
OF PROLONGED NORTHERLY WINDS COULD ALSO PRODUCE ISSUES WITH LOW
WATERS LEVELS FOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAYS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  70  32  37  27 /  30  80  60  30  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  76  37  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  71  41  42  35 /  20  30  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33/38
AVIATION/MARINE...41



000
FXUS64 KEWX 032122
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  75  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KEWX 032122
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  75  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






000
FXUS64 KEWX 032122
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  75  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KEWX 032122
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  75  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KEWX 032122
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  75  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KEWX 032122
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)...FOG WILL BE THE
ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ARE STILL
SEEING SOME VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. FOG WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING DENSE WHERE
IT ALREADY IS NOT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
MOIST AXIS.

MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ENTER NORTHERN AREAS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD
DENSE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH FRONT ACCELERATING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. VERY
SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. WINDS POTENTIALLY
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE ESCARPMENT
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DEEP FORCING CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT PEAKING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONING WILL ASSIST IN
ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. TOP DOWN LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDING AS WELL AS SREF PLUME FROM NCEP INDICATE
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN MIXING TO SLEET.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A COMSTOCK TO CONCAN TO HELOTES TO SAN
MARCOS TO LEXINGTON LINE ARE CURRENTLY WHERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE
POTETNITAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 1/10
OF AN INCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SLEET SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS ALONG A KERRVILE TO
JOHNSON CITY TO GEORGETOWN LINE SEEING ACCUMULATIONS JUST OVER
1/10 OF AN INCH.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND DEPENDING ON QPF TRENDS A WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS.

JR

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH PRECIP EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND
WE NO LONGER CARRY MENTION OF WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE
TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS INTO A LOW ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THEN
OPENS AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM. HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURN
TO THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM

THANKS TO WFO CRP FOR HOSTING WFO EWX FORECASTERS WHILE AWIPS2
UPGRADES WERE PERFORMED.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  73  30  39  27 /  20  70  70  30  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  72  30  38  25 /  20  70  70  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  73  32  40  28 /  20  50  70  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  63  27  37  23 /  30  70  60  20  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  77  32  44  31 /  20  30  50  20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  64  28  38  24 /  20  70  70  30  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  76  33  41  28 /  20  40  70  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  73  31  39  27 /  20  60  70  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   61  73  33  40  28 /  20  70  60  30  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  76  32  40  29 /  20  50  70  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  75  33  41  30 /  20  40  70  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KLUB 032110
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  40  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  50  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  50  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  50  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

26/01



000
FXUS64 KLUB 032110
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  40  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  50  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  50  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  50  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

26/01




000
FXUS64 KLUB 032110
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  40  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  50  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  50  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  50  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

26/01



000
FXUS64 KLUB 032110
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST ONE ALREADY DOING ITS JOB.
WIDESPREAD LIFT IS EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ACROSS NRN BAJA WILL PHASE WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWINGS
AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.

FOR THE NEAR-TERM...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE EFFECT THAT THIS BATCH OF ENERGY
HAD OVER THE SACRAMENTO/ORGAN/SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS...ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING SOMEWHAT BEFORE SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD SUNRISE. A SHARP COLD FRONT
WILL DRIVE ITS WAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BITTERLY COLD
BUT INITIALLY SHALLOW AIRMASS. A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING INITIATING AROUND H6 WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE
INITIALLY DRIER H8-H7 LAYER. AS SUCH...AS WE GO THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE WEATHER DAY NO DOUBT.

THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS GROUND
TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL...TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
FREEZING PRECIP...IT WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE LONG FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
TO COMMENCE. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT OF ICY/SNOWY COMBINATIONS AS
CORRELATED TO MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS...WILL ELECT TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 3 AM. INITIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FIRST THEN GRADUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY
TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF NEAR ONE INCH ALONG WITH SOME INITIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...
THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE NEARING THE ENDING STAGES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANY LINGERING Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL ALSO BE LOSING A THIN LAYER OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLUMN WILL BE
COOL ENOUGH EVERYWHERE FOR ALL SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE THE LAST
HOLD OUTS IN ERODING THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY BUT A LACK
OF MOISTURE WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING IN ANY CLOUD COVER.
FINALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEAK WINDS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK PUTTING THE
BRAKES ON OUR RECENT WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  30  11  35 /  40  60  20   0
TULIA         27  28  13  36 /  50  70  20   0
PLAINVIEW     32  32  13  36 /  50  70  30   0
LEVELLAND     34  39  15  36 /  40  60  40   0
LUBBOCK       35  35  14  37 /  50  60  40   0
DENVER CITY   39  42  18  35 /  40  60  50   0
BROWNFIELD    37  41  17  36 /  50  60  50   0
CHILDRESS     30  30  15  40 /  60  70  30   0
SPUR          34  35  19  38 /  60  70  50   0
ASPERMONT     37  38  22  38 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

26/01




000
FXUS64 KCRP 032107
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
307 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...LOCATIONS REMAINED
SOCKED IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS THE
EAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WITH MID
70S TOWARD THE VICTORIA AREA AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID 50S GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. SOME THINNING IN
CLOUDS IS BEING OBSERVED ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS...SO
STILL HAVE TEMPS INCREASING TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS AND A RETURN OF
FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SEA FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO START
MOVING INLAND BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS SHOW FOG SPREADING
FARTHER WEST...SO HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH PATCHY ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST. DENSE FOG CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY FROM AND EAST OF AN ALICE-GEORGE WEST-VICTORIA
LINE.

DID CUT BACK ON TIMING AND WORDING OF POPS HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A COASTAL TROUGH OVERHEAD SHIFTS TO THE
WEST...MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THE LACK OF DECENT CAPE IN THE
MORNING SHOULD LEND TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ADDED IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS BRING THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
1040 HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AREA-WIDE.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF THE FRONT
HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TIMING
OF WINDS AND COLD AIR TO ROUGHLY AFTER 9PM WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. MODEL PROFILE SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WARM KEEPING PRECIP AS RAIN...WITH WINTRY
PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY START OF LONG TERM PERIOD. PEAK OF STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW AREAWIDE WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A CORE OF 50 KT
WINDS AT 925MB NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE MORNING WITH ONLY A VERY TEMPERED
RISE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE PROG TO BE 30 TO
40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS A 1040MB SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS INTO TEXAS. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE ANY FROZEN PRECIP CAN DEVELOP. SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
SPREADS BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BEING RATHER PROGRESSIVE
IN SHIFTING A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUDNAY
WHILE THE ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM...NOT
BRINGING IT THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF AND CMC WHICH RESULTS IN MOISTURE POOLING SOME ACROSS THE AREA
AND AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING. TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO BE EAST OF
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. AFTER CHILLY
CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK...ONLY A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS IS PROG TO OCCUR WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST. THANKS TO EWX FOR
COLLABORATION TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...DENSE FOG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL CONTINUE A GALE WATCH FOR THE MARINE ZONES LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT MODEL CONSISTENCY...A
GALE WARNING MAY LIKELY BE ISSUED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  77  38  42  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
VICTORIA          62  73  35  39  33  /  20  30  60  20  10
LAREDO            61  81  39  43  38  /  10  10  60  20  10
ALICE             62  79  37  41  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
ROCKPORT          61  70  38  43  36  /  10  20  60  30  10
COTULLA           58  78  36  44  35  /  20  30  60  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  81  38  42  38  /  20  20  60  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  71  39  43  38  /  10  20  60  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 032107
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
307 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...LOCATIONS REMAINED
SOCKED IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS THE
EAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WITH MID
70S TOWARD THE VICTORIA AREA AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID 50S GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. SOME THINNING IN
CLOUDS IS BEING OBSERVED ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS...SO
STILL HAVE TEMPS INCREASING TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS AND A RETURN OF
FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SEA FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO START
MOVING INLAND BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HI-RES MODELS SHOW FOG SPREADING
FARTHER WEST...SO HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH PATCHY ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST. DENSE FOG CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY FROM AND EAST OF AN ALICE-GEORGE WEST-VICTORIA
LINE.

DID CUT BACK ON TIMING AND WORDING OF POPS HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS A COASTAL TROUGH OVERHEAD SHIFTS TO THE
WEST...MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH. THE LACK OF DECENT CAPE IN THE
MORNING SHOULD LEND TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ADDED IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS BRING THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
1040 HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AREA-WIDE.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF THE FRONT
HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TIMING
OF WINDS AND COLD AIR TO ROUGHLY AFTER 9PM WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. MODEL PROFILE SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WARM KEEPING PRECIP AS RAIN...WITH WINTRY
PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. BY THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY START OF LONG TERM PERIOD. PEAK OF STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW AREAWIDE WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A CORE OF 50 KT
WINDS AT 925MB NOSES SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL LATE MORNING WITH ONLY A VERY TEMPERED
RISE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE PROG TO BE 30 TO
40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS A 1040MB SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS INTO TEXAS. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE ANY FROZEN PRECIP CAN DEVELOP. SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
SPREADS BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS BEING RATHER PROGRESSIVE
IN SHIFTING A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUDNAY
WHILE THE ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM...NOT
BRINGING IT THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF AND CMC WHICH RESULTS IN MOISTURE POOLING SOME ACROSS THE AREA
AND AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING. TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO BE EAST OF
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND PRECIP CHANCES ENDING. AFTER CHILLY
CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK...ONLY A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS IS PROG TO OCCUR WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST. THANKS TO EWX FOR
COLLABORATION TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...DENSE FOG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL CONTINUE A GALE WATCH FOR THE MARINE ZONES LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH PERSISTENT MODEL CONSISTENCY...A
GALE WARNING MAY LIKELY BE ISSUED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  77  38  42  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
VICTORIA          62  73  35  39  33  /  20  30  60  20  10
LAREDO            61  81  39  43  38  /  10  10  60  20  10
ALICE             62  79  37  41  36  /  20  20  60  30  10
ROCKPORT          61  70  38  43  36  /  10  20  60  30  10
COTULLA           58  78  36  44  35  /  20  30  60  20  10
KINGSVILLE        64  81  38  42  38  /  20  20  60  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  71  39  43  38  /  10  20  60  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KFWD 032107
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
307 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015


.SHORT TERM...

...ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...


TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NORTH
TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC
FRONT. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 13Z AND
BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z IN WACO. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS...
ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA. THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN/POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET BEGINNING AROUND 20Z AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL TO FREEZING OR BELOW. 79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  47  26  39  24 /  60  90  60  10   5
WACO, TX              56  61  30  39  24 /  40  90  70  20   5
PARIS, TX             49  50  25  39  23 /  90 100  60  10   5
DENTON, TX            44  44  24  39  23 /  70  90  50  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          45  47  25  39  24 /  70  90  60  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  48  26  40  25 /  70  90  60  10   5
TERRELL, TX           51  52  27  40  23 /  70  90  70  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         53  60  31  39  25 /  60  90  70  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  64  30  39  25 /  40  80  70  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  46  24  38  22 /  60  80  40  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115.


&&

$$

 /75




000
FXUS64 KFWD 032107
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
307 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015


.SHORT TERM...

...ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...


TEMPERATURES TODAY DID NOT WARM AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT AND THE
DENSE FOG PERSISTED SOMEWHAT LONGER. STILL HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE...BUT WEAK SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THEM A LITTLE BEFORE EVENING. BUT DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 2 PM. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER KANSAS. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS THE
RED RIVER JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO THE I-20/30 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 4-5 PM. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AND WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RIGHT.
THE FREEZING LINE WILL LAG MANY HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS A
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX MAY NOT TAKE TAKE
PLACE IN THE NORTHWEST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX UNTIL 5 PM. ALTHOUGH THIS IS OUR BEST GUESS ON THE
TRANSITION...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER WOULD RESULT IN MORE SERIOUS
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR THE EARLIER NORTHWEST
TIMING...ONE FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE METROPLEX TO
COVER THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTER IMPACT POTENTIAL AND ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE TRANSITION OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...WE FEEL SLEET AMOUNTS UP TO 1/2 INCH AND FREEZING RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 1/10 INCH ARE THE MOST LOGICAL FOR THIS EVENT.

NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING...TRANSITION AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
MOVING OVER THE POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WEDNESDAY EVENING. SLEET
SHOWERS WOULD RESULT IN ROADS BECOMING COVERED IN A SHORTER PERIOD
OF TIME. OTHER FACTORS AIDING THIS EVENT ARE: STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING...SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-REAR ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 250 MB JET ALOFT AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE CWA.

WE WILL BE WATCHING NEW DATA AS IT ARRIVES TO RE-EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM AS A FEW MINOR DEVIATIONS HERE AND THERE
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER FORECASTS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SHOULD END BEFORE MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AROUND 40 FROM
CAMERON TO CENTERVILLE. EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE
CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SPLIT-PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING BY LATE WEEK WITH
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND WARM INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY MORNING...IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY THEN WARMING INTO THE 40S BY TUESDAY
MORNING. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NORTH
TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC
FRONT. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 13Z AND
BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z IN WACO. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS...
ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA. THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN/POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET BEGINNING AROUND 20Z AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL TO FREEZING OR BELOW. 79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  47  26  39  24 /  60  90  60  10   5
WACO, TX              56  61  30  39  24 /  40  90  70  20   5
PARIS, TX             49  50  25  39  23 /  90 100  60  10   5
DENTON, TX            44  44  24  39  23 /  70  90  50  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          45  47  25  39  24 /  70  90  60  10   5
DALLAS, TX            48  48  26  40  25 /  70  90  60  10   5
TERRELL, TX           51  52  27  40  23 /  70  90  70  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         53  60  31  39  25 /  60  90  70  20   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  64  30  39  25 /  40  80  70  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  46  24  38  22 /  60  80  40  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ093>095-103>107-116>123-129>134-141>145.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON
CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ135-146>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR TXZ091-092-100>102-115.


&&

$$

 /75



000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032101
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE IN TIME TO CHANGE LOWLAND RAIN TO SNOW BUT IT WILL HELP
GENERATE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FIFTEEN OR MORE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY WITH SUNSHINE HELPING BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND TO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS HELPED PROVIDE THE SUBTROPICAL TAP IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS RESULTED IN OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. HOWEVER AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND SHEAR EAST SATELLITE TRENDS ARE INDICATING A
DRY SLOT SLOWLY ADVANCING OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHICH
SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.

DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. THERE IS SOME DEBATE AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS
TO JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP WE WILL RECEIVE BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY QPF
VALUES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY AND ALL SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE
PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST OF HERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES BUT THE
ONLY REAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS LATER WEDNESDAY WHEN LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW
AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. CURRENT THINKING IS AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE 6000 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE
DRY AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO WARM UP AS
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER THE BORDER REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL LATE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MILDER...TEMPS MAY NOT ACTUALLY GET BACK TO NORMAL UNTIL THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT TCS IF DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH DOESN`T
SEEP IN...BUT RISK IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.
WINDS WILL STAY STEADY ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO MITIGATE FOG THREAT
FURTHER SOUTH. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN AS THE MAIN
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AGAIN WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VISBY
POSSIBLE. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z/05.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WITH SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET. PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SNOW
LEVELS TO DROP...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A WARM-UP EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 43  58  30  47  29 /   0  20  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           40  56  23  40  24 /  20  30  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              36  57  28  47  26 /   0  20  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              40  56  26  45  24 /  10  30  30   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              28  37  17  32  23 /  20  30  40   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   37  54  29  45  29 /   0  20  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             32  50  26  48  25 /  20  20   0   0   0
DEMING                  33  59  29  49  26 /   0  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               33  55  29  51  27 /  10  20   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      44  59  32  47  31 /   0  20  20   0   0
DELL CITY               35  57  24  43  23 /  20  20  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            45  61  29  47  28 /  20  20  20   0   0
LOMA LINDA              40  53  25  42  25 /  20  20  20   0   0
FABENS                  41  58  28  44  26 /  20  20  10   0   0
SANTA TERESA            38  58  29  46  27 /   0  20  10   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          42  57  29  47  28 /   0  20  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           33  58  24  48  23 /   0  20  20   0   0
HATCH                   36  59  28  49  26 /   0  20  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                41  57  31  48  30 /   0  20   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               43  57  27  46  27 /   0  20  20   0   0
MAYHILL                 31  44  15  32  21 /  20  30  40   0   0
MESCALERO               30  44  16  36  23 /  20  40  40   0   0
TIMBERON                32  45  19  37  23 /  20  30  30   0   0
WINSTON                 32  47  25  42  24 /   0  20  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               36  52  29  46  27 /   0  20  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               35  57  26  48  25 /   0  30  20   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            30  48  23  46  21 /  20  20  10   0   0
HURLEY                  32  51  25  47  24 /  10  20   0   0   0
CLIFF                   33  56  27  55  24 /  20  20   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              23  52  21  54  20 /  20  20   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 34  51  28  46  26 /   0  20   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  35  57  30  53  27 /  10  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 36  58  27  51  25 /   0  20   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          39  57  29  55  26 /  10  30  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              36  54  31  53  29 /  20  30  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/HARDIMAN





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032101
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE IN TIME TO CHANGE LOWLAND RAIN TO SNOW BUT IT WILL HELP
GENERATE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FIFTEEN OR MORE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY WITH SUNSHINE HELPING BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND TO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS HELPED PROVIDE THE SUBTROPICAL TAP IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS RESULTED IN OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. HOWEVER AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND SHEAR EAST SATELLITE TRENDS ARE INDICATING A
DRY SLOT SLOWLY ADVANCING OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHICH
SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.

DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. THERE IS SOME DEBATE AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS
TO JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP WE WILL RECEIVE BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY QPF
VALUES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY AND ALL SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE
PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST OF HERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES BUT THE
ONLY REAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS LATER WEDNESDAY WHEN LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW
AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. CURRENT THINKING IS AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE 6000 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE
DRY AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO WARM UP AS
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER THE BORDER REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL LATE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MILDER...TEMPS MAY NOT ACTUALLY GET BACK TO NORMAL UNTIL THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT TCS IF DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH DOESN`T
SEEP IN...BUT RISK IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.
WINDS WILL STAY STEADY ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO MITIGATE FOG THREAT
FURTHER SOUTH. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN AS THE MAIN
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AGAIN WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VISBY
POSSIBLE. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z/05.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WITH SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET. PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SNOW
LEVELS TO DROP...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A WARM-UP EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 43  58  30  47  29 /   0  20  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           40  56  23  40  24 /  20  30  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              36  57  28  47  26 /   0  20  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              40  56  26  45  24 /  10  30  30   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              28  37  17  32  23 /  20  30  40   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   37  54  29  45  29 /   0  20  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             32  50  26  48  25 /  20  20   0   0   0
DEMING                  33  59  29  49  26 /   0  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               33  55  29  51  27 /  10  20   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      44  59  32  47  31 /   0  20  20   0   0
DELL CITY               35  57  24  43  23 /  20  20  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            45  61  29  47  28 /  20  20  20   0   0
LOMA LINDA              40  53  25  42  25 /  20  20  20   0   0
FABENS                  41  58  28  44  26 /  20  20  10   0   0
SANTA TERESA            38  58  29  46  27 /   0  20  10   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          42  57  29  47  28 /   0  20  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           33  58  24  48  23 /   0  20  20   0   0
HATCH                   36  59  28  49  26 /   0  20  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                41  57  31  48  30 /   0  20   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               43  57  27  46  27 /   0  20  20   0   0
MAYHILL                 31  44  15  32  21 /  20  30  40   0   0
MESCALERO               30  44  16  36  23 /  20  40  40   0   0
TIMBERON                32  45  19  37  23 /  20  30  30   0   0
WINSTON                 32  47  25  42  24 /   0  20  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               36  52  29  46  27 /   0  20  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               35  57  26  48  25 /   0  30  20   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            30  48  23  46  21 /  20  20  10   0   0
HURLEY                  32  51  25  47  24 /  10  20   0   0   0
CLIFF                   33  56  27  55  24 /  20  20   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              23  52  21  54  20 /  20  20   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 34  51  28  46  26 /   0  20   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  35  57  30  53  27 /  10  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 36  58  27  51  25 /   0  20   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          39  57  29  55  26 /  10  30  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              36  54  31  53  29 /  20  30  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/HARDIMAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032101
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE IN TIME TO CHANGE LOWLAND RAIN TO SNOW BUT IT WILL HELP
GENERATE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FIFTEEN OR MORE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY WITH SUNSHINE HELPING BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND TO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS HELPED PROVIDE THE SUBTROPICAL TAP IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS RESULTED IN OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. HOWEVER AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND SHEAR EAST SATELLITE TRENDS ARE INDICATING A
DRY SLOT SLOWLY ADVANCING OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHICH
SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.

DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. THERE IS SOME DEBATE AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS
TO JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP WE WILL RECEIVE BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY QPF
VALUES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY AND ALL SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE
PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST OF HERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES BUT THE
ONLY REAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS LATER WEDNESDAY WHEN LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW
AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. CURRENT THINKING IS AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE 6000 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE
DRY AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO WARM UP AS
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER THE BORDER REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL LATE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MILDER...TEMPS MAY NOT ACTUALLY GET BACK TO NORMAL UNTIL THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT TCS IF DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH DOESN`T
SEEP IN...BUT RISK IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.
WINDS WILL STAY STEADY ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO MITIGATE FOG THREAT
FURTHER SOUTH. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN AS THE MAIN
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AGAIN WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VISBY
POSSIBLE. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z/05.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WITH SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET. PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SNOW
LEVELS TO DROP...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A WARM-UP EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 43  58  30  47  29 /   0  20  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           40  56  23  40  24 /  20  30  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              36  57  28  47  26 /   0  20  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              40  56  26  45  24 /  10  30  30   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              28  37  17  32  23 /  20  30  40   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   37  54  29  45  29 /   0  20  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             32  50  26  48  25 /  20  20   0   0   0
DEMING                  33  59  29  49  26 /   0  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               33  55  29  51  27 /  10  20   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      44  59  32  47  31 /   0  20  20   0   0
DELL CITY               35  57  24  43  23 /  20  20  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            45  61  29  47  28 /  20  20  20   0   0
LOMA LINDA              40  53  25  42  25 /  20  20  20   0   0
FABENS                  41  58  28  44  26 /  20  20  10   0   0
SANTA TERESA            38  58  29  46  27 /   0  20  10   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          42  57  29  47  28 /   0  20  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           33  58  24  48  23 /   0  20  20   0   0
HATCH                   36  59  28  49  26 /   0  20  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                41  57  31  48  30 /   0  20   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               43  57  27  46  27 /   0  20  20   0   0
MAYHILL                 31  44  15  32  21 /  20  30  40   0   0
MESCALERO               30  44  16  36  23 /  20  40  40   0   0
TIMBERON                32  45  19  37  23 /  20  30  30   0   0
WINSTON                 32  47  25  42  24 /   0  20  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               36  52  29  46  27 /   0  20  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               35  57  26  48  25 /   0  30  20   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            30  48  23  46  21 /  20  20  10   0   0
HURLEY                  32  51  25  47  24 /  10  20   0   0   0
CLIFF                   33  56  27  55  24 /  20  20   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              23  52  21  54  20 /  20  20   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 34  51  28  46  26 /   0  20   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  35  57  30  53  27 /  10  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 36  58  27  51  25 /   0  20   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          39  57  29  55  26 /  10  30  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              36  54  31  53  29 /  20  30  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/HARDIMAN





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032101
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL NOT
ARRIVE IN TIME TO CHANGE LOWLAND RAIN TO SNOW BUT IT WILL HELP
GENERATE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FIFTEEN OR MORE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY WITH SUNSHINE HELPING BRING A SLOW WARMING TREND TO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS HELPED PROVIDE THE SUBTROPICAL TAP IN THE
SW FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS RESULTED IN OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. HOWEVER AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND SHEAR EAST SATELLITE TRENDS ARE INDICATING A
DRY SLOT SLOWLY ADVANCING OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHICH
SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE PRECIP THIS EVENING.

DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. THERE IS SOME DEBATE AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS
TO JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP WE WILL RECEIVE BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY QPF
VALUES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY AND ALL SEEM TO AGREE THAT THE
PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST OF HERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES BUT THE
ONLY REAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS LATER WEDNESDAY WHEN LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW
AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. CURRENT THINKING IS AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE 6000 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE
DRY AIR AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO WARM UP AS
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER THE BORDER REGION. THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL LATE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND
MILDER...TEMPS MAY NOT ACTUALLY GET BACK TO NORMAL UNTIL THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z...
BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT TCS IF DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH DOESN`T
SEEP IN...BUT RISK IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.
WINDS WILL STAY STEADY ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO MITIGATE FOG THREAT
FURTHER SOUTH. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN AS THE MAIN
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AGAIN WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VISBY
POSSIBLE. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z/05.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA...WITH SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET. PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING SNOW
LEVELS TO DROP...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A WARM-UP EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 43  58  30  47  29 /   0  20  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           40  56  23  40  24 /  20  30  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              36  57  28  47  26 /   0  20  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              40  56  26  45  24 /  10  30  30   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              28  37  17  32  23 /  20  30  40   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   37  54  29  45  29 /   0  20  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             32  50  26  48  25 /  20  20   0   0   0
DEMING                  33  59  29  49  26 /   0  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               33  55  29  51  27 /  10  20   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      44  59  32  47  31 /   0  20  20   0   0
DELL CITY               35  57  24  43  23 /  20  20  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            45  61  29  47  28 /  20  20  20   0   0
LOMA LINDA              40  53  25  42  25 /  20  20  20   0   0
FABENS                  41  58  28  44  26 /  20  20  10   0   0
SANTA TERESA            38  58  29  46  27 /   0  20  10   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          42  57  29  47  28 /   0  20  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           33  58  24  48  23 /   0  20  20   0   0
HATCH                   36  59  28  49  26 /   0  20  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                41  57  31  48  30 /   0  20   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               43  57  27  46  27 /   0  20  20   0   0
MAYHILL                 31  44  15  32  21 /  20  30  40   0   0
MESCALERO               30  44  16  36  23 /  20  40  40   0   0
TIMBERON                32  45  19  37  23 /  20  30  30   0   0
WINSTON                 32  47  25  42  24 /   0  20  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               36  52  29  46  27 /   0  20  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               35  57  26  48  25 /   0  30  20   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            30  48  23  46  21 /  20  20  10   0   0
HURLEY                  32  51  25  47  24 /  10  20   0   0   0
CLIFF                   33  56  27  55  24 /  20  20   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              23  52  21  54  20 /  20  20   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 34  51  28  46  26 /   0  20   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  35  57  30  53  27 /  10  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 36  58  27  51  25 /   0  20   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          39  57  29  55  26 /  10  30  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              36  54  31  53  29 /  20  30  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/HARDIMAN






000
FXUS64 KMAF 032055
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough that extends from Montana southwestward back
to the Pacific will move east and drag across Northern Mexico on the
way to the region.  The trough will pass into the area Wednesday.
After the trough passes east on Thursday a West Coast ridge will
build into the area Friday with mild wx for the area.

Have had a marginal warm up today with highs in the 50s and 60s but
that is  not going to last long.  Today should be warmest day since
Feb 25th.  A strong cold front will blow through the area tomorrow with
an arctic airmass returning to the region.  The front has good
pressure rises behind it and is quickly moving across CO and KS this
afternoon.  This front will arrive in the NE Permian Basin early
Wednesday morning and quickly pass through the area.  The wind will
be gusty out of the N/NE behind the front.  Much of the region will
reach its high temps early with readings falling through the day.
As this front pushes through the Guadalupe Pass could see high wind.
Have issued a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Pass Wednesday night.
Highs only make it into the 30s Thursday. Will take a few days to
recover from this latest cold air intrusion but by the weekend
highs in the 60s should return and continue into early next week.

Have another shot of precip tonight... mainly showers but could be a
few storms.  As the cold air moves in Wednesday the precip may mix
with sleet or snow by afternoon especially across Northern Permian Basin.
This precip should change over to snow Wednesday night for much of
the region.  Currently have a SPS discussing wintry precip with max
snow accumulation up to 1 inch... if the cold air arrives faster
than an advisory may be needed.  Drier conditions begin Thursday
with no additional precip through end of forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  47  22  38  /  50  50  30  10
BIG SPRING TX              45  46  22  37  /  40  50  40  10
CARLSBAD NM                43  55  25  39  /  30  30  30  10
DRYDEN TX                  51  64  31  43  /  30  40  40  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           48  56  25  39  /  50  40  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  47  18  34  /  30  30  30  10
HOBBS NM                   43  45  20  38  /  30  40  30  10
MARFA TX                   40  56  24  38  /  40  40  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    47  48  23  38  /  50  50  30  10
ODESSA TX                  47  49  22  38  /  50  50  30  10
WINK TX                    46  53  26  39  /  50  40  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10/72

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 032055
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough that extends from Montana southwestward back
to the Pacific will move east and drag across Northern Mexico on the
way to the region.  The trough will pass into the area Wednesday.
After the trough passes east on Thursday a West Coast ridge will
build into the area Friday with mild wx for the area.

Have had a marginal warm up today with highs in the 50s and 60s but
that is  not going to last long.  Today should be warmest day since
Feb 25th.  A strong cold front will blow through the area tomorrow with
an arctic airmass returning to the region.  The front has good
pressure rises behind it and is quickly moving across CO and KS this
afternoon.  This front will arrive in the NE Permian Basin early
Wednesday morning and quickly pass through the area.  The wind will
be gusty out of the N/NE behind the front.  Much of the region will
reach its high temps early with readings falling through the day.
As this front pushes through the Guadalupe Pass could see high wind.
Have issued a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Pass Wednesday night.
Highs only make it into the 30s Thursday. Will take a few days to
recover from this latest cold air intrusion but by the weekend
highs in the 60s should return and continue into early next week.

Have another shot of precip tonight... mainly showers but could be a
few storms.  As the cold air moves in Wednesday the precip may mix
with sleet or snow by afternoon especially across Northern Permian Basin.
This precip should change over to snow Wednesday night for much of
the region.  Currently have a SPS discussing wintry precip with max
snow accumulation up to 1 inch... if the cold air arrives faster
than an advisory may be needed.  Drier conditions begin Thursday
with no additional precip through end of forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  47  22  38  /  50  50  30  10
BIG SPRING TX              45  46  22  37  /  40  50  40  10
CARLSBAD NM                43  55  25  39  /  30  30  30  10
DRYDEN TX                  51  64  31  43  /  30  40  40  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           48  56  25  39  /  50  40  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  47  18  34  /  30  30  30  10
HOBBS NM                   43  45  20  38  /  30  40  30  10
MARFA TX                   40  56  24  38  /  40  40  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    47  48  23  38  /  50  50  30  10
ODESSA TX                  47  49  22  38  /  50  50  30  10
WINK TX                    46  53  26  39  /  50  40  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10/72

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KBRO 032046
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  67  80  42  42 /  10  10  50  60
BROWNSVILLE          66  84  39  40 /  10  10  50  60
HARLINGEN            68  85  39  39 /  10  10  60  60
MCALLEN              67  87  38  38 /  10  10  60  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      64  88  40  40 /  10  10  60  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  71  46  46 /  10  10  50  60

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/54/58



000
FXUS64 KBRO 032046
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
246 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAJOR WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS GRADUALLY
SPREADING WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. ALREADY AS OF 1 PM THE TEMP IN
BROWNSVILLE HAS EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES. THE WARM FRONT IS MAKING SLOW
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 5 PM.
TEMPERATURES MIGHT CONTINUE TO WARM AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING KICKS IN.

TONIGHT...SURFACE INVERSION REESTABLISHES ITSELF A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET WITH A BRISK LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KNOTS  DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE LOWERING PRESSURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE SIERRA MADRE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRATUS TO QUICKLY
REFORM AND WITH THE CONTINUED MIXING OF WINDS OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING SLOWED
DOWN.

WEDNESDAY...THE VENGEANCE OF THE RGV WIND MACHINE AND WARMING WILL BE
IN FULL SWING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE LEE OF THE SIERRAS. SURFACE TO 850MB WINDS TO VEER S-
SW-W THIS IS GOOD SIGNAL FOR DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS NICELY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 90 DEGREES. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT NUMBERS. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG, FOG NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, TO QUICKLY BURN OFF AND LIFT WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON SKY. SURFACE WINDS AS MENTION BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY AS TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM COAST TO
SIERRA STRENGTHENS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BRIEF WARMING TREND TO QUICKLY GO INTO
REVERSE AS THE MUCH ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHERN JET MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY INCREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
COLD AIR. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
LOWER VALLEY BY 4 AM. RAPID FORCING OF THE DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
OVER THE WARM MOIST LAYER TO ALLOW FOR QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT SO FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE FELT BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS GUIDANCE SHOWS A DROP OF 30+ DEGREES
IN 9 HOURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM AT BROWNSVILLE. THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHING A 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH BROWNSVILLE AT 4 AM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR. THIS
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...HAVING FAILED TO COMPLETELY PHASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MID LEVEL FEATURE. HENCE...AS COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE CWA THURSDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...PROLONGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
ENSURING AN OVER RUNNING PATTERN THAT LASTS INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL FILL OVER THE WEEKEND...A
WEAKNESS WILL REMAIN OVER NW MEXICO...PREVENTING THE MID LEVEL
FLOW FROM VEERING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HOPES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TO BE PUT ON
HOLD FOR A TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AN ARCTIC SOURCE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH CAA WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS TIME...NORTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST HAVE A CHANCE OF TOUCHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUSTAINED CAA AND
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
TO KEEP THE SLOW TEMPERATURE DROP GOING THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AFTER WHICH A RECOVERY OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO GET BACK TO THE SAME READINGS
AS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HIGH FOR
THE DAY MAY OCCUR AT DAWN HOWEVER. ALSO BACKED OFF ON HIGHER POPS
AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE. LIGHT RAIN STILL IN THE CARDS BUT QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE THICK LOW CLOUDS AT THE LEAST...HOWEVER.

THE SUSTAINED CAA WILL ALSO BE HELPED ALONG BY PERSISTENT COASTAL
SURFACE TROFFING IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
THICK LOW LEVEL CLD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE COASTAL TROFFING WILL LIKELY LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. BUT THE DISSIPATION OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 500 MB
LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING EAST OVER TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SERIES OF 500 MB AND SURFACE LOWS/TROUGHS WILL
HOLD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND...
TENDING TO HOLD OFF ANY SERIOUS WARMING THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH
AROUND FRIDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES THEN SHOW UP AS THE TWO MODELS
WRESTLE WITH THE DETAILS OF THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGHING MOVING
ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THE DIFFERENCES DON`T SEEM TO TRANSLATE INTO
ANY BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE END OF THE ADVERTISED FORECAST...BUT
COULD HAVE MORE RELEVANCE DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS FINALLY RETURN. THE ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO LOWER
INLAND. THE COOLER WATER SHOULD LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ARE LIKELY MAINLY OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO FINISH ANY BUSINESS EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS A MAJOR COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE WATCHES ARE POSTED AND WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR FIRST THING WEDNESDAY. THE
SHARP FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM THEN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE THE SURGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO QUICKLY SWITCH TO
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
ARCTIC ORIGINS. GALES WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THE LAGUNA MADRE...BUT
WINDS MAY WEAKEN A BIT EARLIER THERE...MID THURSDAY...THAN ON THE
OPEN GULF. SEAS ON THE GULF WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR MASS SLOWLY SPREADS OVER THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM MARINE FCST WILL CONSIST OF SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SEVEN FEET INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  67  80  42  42 /  10  10  50  60
BROWNSVILLE          66  84  39  40 /  10  10  50  60
HARLINGEN            68  85  39  39 /  10  10  60  60
MCALLEN              67  87  38  38 /  10  10  60  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      64  88  40  40 /  10  10  60  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  71  46  46 /  10  10  50  60

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/54/58




000
FXUS64 KAMA 032045
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
THESE TWO FEATURES IN PHASE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
TONIGHT. A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS HAS
ALREADY FORCED A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
HANDLED THESE SCENARIOS PARTICULARLY WELL LATELY WITH A TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER INTRUSION OF COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IN ADDITION TO
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH STREAMING THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
MARKEDLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION AND EXTENSIVENESS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ICE CRYSTAL INTRODUCTION INITIALLY
WITH 12Z NAM TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT TOMORROW THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND FOR POTENTIALLY LOWER
AMOUNTS THAT CURRENT IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW SNOW ACCUMULATION
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
MORE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE DURATION OF MIX PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD LAST LONGER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND POSSIBLY SLEET. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW COLD SUB-FREEZING LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET. COLUMN COOLING WITH CONTINUED
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE NORTH AND BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE SOUTH.

OUR GUESS AT TIMING IS DETAILED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
PRODUCT WHICH HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO SEGMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION. IMPACT FROM TRAVEL MAY OCCUR INITIALLY
FROM THE COMBINATION OF RAIN PRECEDING THE COLD SURGE THAT FREEZES ON
ROAD SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 20S...AND A PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT MAY HAPPEN UNTIL SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT
OCCURS FOR ALL SNOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION INCLUDING
SNOW PACKED ROADS INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. 20-25
KNOT POST FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AS RATIOS INCREASE
LATER IN THE EVENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXTENDED THEN WITH THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW FAR EAST THE
UPPER RIDGE CAN BUILD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
CONSEQUENTLY HOW WARM WE WILL BE. TEMPERATURE SHOULD REACH AT LEAST
NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MARCH BY THE WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                22  25  14  37  21 /  70  80  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  18  25   9  39  20 /  80  80  10   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              16  19   6  42  20 /  70  80  10   0   0
BORGER TX                  23  24  14  39  23 /  80  80  20   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              25  26  15  38  22 /  80  70  20   5   0
CANYON TX                  26  29  15  36  20 /  70  80  20   5   0
CLARENDON TX               26  27  16  38  19 /  60  80  20   5   0
DALHART TX                 21  23  12  38  20 /  80  70  10   5   0
GUYMON OK                  17  24  10  40  21 /  80  80  10   0   0
HEREFORD TX                28  30  15  36  20 /  70  70  20   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                21  25  11  38  21 /  80  80  20   0   0
PAMPA TX                   21  22  13  37  20 /  80  80  20   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                25  27  13  38  19 /  60  80  30   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              27  29  18  40  21 /  60  80  30   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...
     CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...
     TEXAS.


&&

$$

02/17





000
FXUS64 KAMA 032045
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
245 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
THESE TWO FEATURES IN PHASE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA
TONIGHT. A LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS HAS
ALREADY FORCED A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS HAVE NOT
HANDLED THESE SCENARIOS PARTICULARLY WELL LATELY WITH A TENDENCY FOR
A SLOWER INTRUSION OF COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IN ADDITION TO
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH STREAMING THROUGH NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
MARKEDLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DURATION AND EXTENSIVENESS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ICE CRYSTAL INTRODUCTION INITIALLY
WITH 12Z NAM TRENDING SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT TOMORROW THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND FOR POTENTIALLY LOWER
AMOUNTS THAT CURRENT IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW SNOW ACCUMULATION
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
MORE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE DURATION OF MIX PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD LAST LONGER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR A MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND POSSIBLY SLEET. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW COLD SUB-FREEZING LAYER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET. COLUMN COOLING WITH CONTINUED
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OVER TO ALL
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE NORTH AND BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE SOUTH.

OUR GUESS AT TIMING IS DETAILED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
PRODUCT WHICH HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO SEGMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION. IMPACT FROM TRAVEL MAY OCCUR INITIALLY
FROM THE COMBINATION OF RAIN PRECEDING THE COLD SURGE THAT FREEZES ON
ROAD SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 20S...AND A PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT MAY HAPPEN UNTIL SUFFICIENT COOLING ALOFT
OCCURS FOR ALL SNOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION INCLUDING
SNOW PACKED ROADS INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. 20-25
KNOT POST FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AS RATIOS INCREASE
LATER IN THE EVENT LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. DRY WEATHER IS EXTENDED THEN WITH THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW FAR EAST THE
UPPER RIDGE CAN BUILD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
CONSEQUENTLY HOW WARM WE WILL BE. TEMPERATURE SHOULD REACH AT LEAST
NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MARCH BY THE WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                22  25  14  37  21 /  70  80  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  18  25   9  39  20 /  80  80  10   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              16  19   6  42  20 /  70  80  10   0   0
BORGER TX                  23  24  14  39  23 /  80  80  20   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              25  26  15  38  22 /  80  70  20   5   0
CANYON TX                  26  29  15  36  20 /  70  80  20   5   0
CLARENDON TX               26  27  16  38  19 /  60  80  20   5   0
DALHART TX                 21  23  12  38  20 /  80  70  10   5   0
GUYMON OK                  17  24  10  40  21 /  80  80  10   0   0
HEREFORD TX                28  30  15  36  20 /  70  70  20   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                21  25  11  38  21 /  80  80  20   0   0
PAMPA TX                   21  22  13  37  20 /  80  80  20   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                25  27  13  38  19 /  60  80  30   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              27  29  18  40  21 /  60  80  30   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...SHERMAN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...
     CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...
     TEXAS.


&&

$$

02/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 031837 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1237 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...DETERIORATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES DURG THIS FCST CYCLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
INVADING THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...A FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BRING A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION...STARTING OFF AS -RA...THEN TRANSITIONING TO -FZRA OR
-RASN...AND FINALLY ALL SNOW. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AND
VSBYS WILL DROP ACCORDINGLY AS WELL DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND BR.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG WHICH EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 15Z TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AROUND 23Z
TODAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE THE VFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR
AROUND 21Z TO 23Z TODAY...AND THEN BECOME IFR TO VLIFR AFTER 01Z TO
03Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT RAIN BY 01Z WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MIXED WITH
AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY 06Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP UPPER
LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DESPITE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG HAVE
PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE FOG TO ERODE LATER THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
STILL EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TODAY BUT ALSO EXPECT A
NICE WARM UP FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

THIS WARM UP WILL BE BRIEF...HOWEVER...AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PLUNGES
INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE FREEZING...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OUT AS
RAIN PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY CAUSE PRECIPITATION PHASE TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRY AIR IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. DECIDED
TO GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SNOW EVENT SHOULD BE UNFOLDING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW OPENING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE COLUMN WILL QUICKLY
SATURATE INDICATING SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS
RAISED CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. OF LOWER CONFIDENCE
WILL BE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TOTAL SNOWFALL. WENT WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 2
INCHES...WHICH FITS IN A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER
OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE LOWER DEPENDING ON IF AND HOW LONG
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PRECEDE THE SNOWFALL.

ANY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SKIES WILL ALSO
QUICKLY CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE WARM UP THURSDAY WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S AS OPPOSED TO THE 20S
WEDNESDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CAN PUSH A COUPLE OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THESE WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 031837 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1237 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...DETERIORATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL
SITES DURG THIS FCST CYCLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
INVADING THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...A FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WILL BRING A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION...STARTING OFF AS -RA...THEN TRANSITIONING TO -FZRA OR
-RASN...AND FINALLY ALL SNOW. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AND
VSBYS WILL DROP ACCORDINGLY AS WELL DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND BR.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING WITH
ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG WHICH EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 15Z TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AROUND 23Z
TODAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE THE VFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME MVFR
AROUND 21Z TO 23Z TODAY...AND THEN BECOME IFR TO VLIFR AFTER 01Z TO
03Z WEDNESDAY. LIGHT RAIN BY 01Z WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MIXED WITH
AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY 06Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP UPPER
LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DESPITE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG HAVE
PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE FOG TO ERODE LATER THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
STILL EXPECT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TODAY BUT ALSO EXPECT A
NICE WARM UP FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

THIS WARM UP WILL BE BRIEF...HOWEVER...AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PLUNGES
INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE FREEZING...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OUT AS
RAIN PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY CAUSE PRECIPITATION PHASE TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRY AIR IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. DECIDED
TO GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SNOW EVENT SHOULD BE UNFOLDING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW OPENING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE COLUMN WILL QUICKLY
SATURATE INDICATING SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS
RAISED CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. OF LOWER CONFIDENCE
WILL BE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TOTAL SNOWFALL. WENT WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 2
INCHES...WHICH FITS IN A POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER
OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE LOWER DEPENDING ON IF AND HOW LONG
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PRECEDE THE SNOWFALL.

ANY PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SKIES WILL ALSO
QUICKLY CLEAR THURSDAY MORNING. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE WARM UP THURSDAY WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S AS OPPOSED TO THE 20S
WEDNESDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CAN PUSH A COUPLE OF WEAK
COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THESE WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KFWD 031832
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1232 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NORTH
TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC
FRONT. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 13Z AND
BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z IN WACO. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS...
ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA. THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN/POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET BEGINNING AROUND 20Z AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL TO FREEZING OR BELOW.

79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY SCOURING OUT THE REMAINING SHALLOW
COLD AIRMASS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION SINCE LATE LAST WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 70
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE HAD SINCE TWO SATURDAYS AGO /FEBRUARY
21ST/. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW A LITTLE INSTABILITY...SO HAVE PLACED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP DOWN THE PLAINS TODAY...MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...AND TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
TEMPLE-KILLEEN AREA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA WIDE
TONIGHT AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AS TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL...SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF BEFORE SUNSET
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE A CHALLENGE...AS THE NAM
SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE WARMER...SLOWER WITH THE COLD AIR...THAN
THE GFS. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND THUS PLACED
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD THEN SEE A TRANSITIONING OVER TO A
SLEET/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3S AND FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE WARM NOSE ALOFT DISAPPEARS BY 00Z THURSDAY
AT DFW BUT HANGS ON AT WACO PAST 06Z THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SHUT OFF BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME.

THE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A MODERATING
TREND BEGINS. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  39  40  25  41 /  40  70  90  60  10
WACO, TX              60  52  54  29  40 /  30  50  90  70  20
PARIS, TX             62  41  41  19  41 /  50  90  90  60  10
DENTON, TX            63  36  37  21  40 /  40  70  90  50  10
MCKINNEY, TX          60  37  39  24  41 /  50  70  90  60  10
DALLAS, TX            62  40  41  25  41 /  40  70  90  60  10
TERRELL, TX           62  42  44  26  41 /  50  70  90  70  20
CORSICANA, TX         62  48  54  29  39 /  40  60  90  70  20
TEMPLE, TX            60  55  57  28  39 /  30  40  80  70  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  39  39  21  40 /  30  70  80  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75




000
FXUS64 KFWD 031832
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1232 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE AT ALL NORTH
TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ARCTIC
FRONT. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 13Z AND
BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z IN WACO. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS...
ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA. THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN/POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET BEGINNING AROUND 20Z AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL TO FREEZING OR BELOW.

79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY SCOURING OUT THE REMAINING SHALLOW
COLD AIRMASS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION SINCE LATE LAST WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 70
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE HAD SINCE TWO SATURDAYS AGO /FEBRUARY
21ST/. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW A LITTLE INSTABILITY...SO HAVE PLACED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP DOWN THE PLAINS TODAY...MOVING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...AND TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
TEMPLE-KILLEEN AREA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA WIDE
TONIGHT AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AS TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL...SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF BEFORE SUNSET
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE A CHALLENGE...AS THE NAM
SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE WARMER...SLOWER WITH THE COLD AIR...THAN
THE GFS. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND THUS PLACED
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD THEN SEE A TRANSITIONING OVER TO A
SLEET/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3S AND FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
MIX ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GFS FORECAST
SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE WARM NOSE ALOFT DISAPPEARS BY 00Z THURSDAY
AT DFW BUT HANGS ON AT WACO PAST 06Z THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SHUT OFF BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME.

THE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A MODERATING
TREND BEGINS. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  39  40  25  41 /  40  70  90  60  10
WACO, TX              60  52  54  29  40 /  30  50  90  70  20
PARIS, TX             62  41  41  19  41 /  50  90  90  60  10
DENTON, TX            63  36  37  21  40 /  40  70  90  50  10
MCKINNEY, TX          60  37  39  24  41 /  50  70  90  60  10
DALLAS, TX            62  40  41  25  41 /  40  70  90  60  10
TERRELL, TX           62  42  44  26  41 /  50  70  90  70  20
CORSICANA, TX         62  48  54  29  39 /  40  60  90  70  20
TEMPLE, TX            60  55  57  28  39 /  30  40  80  70  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  39  39  21  40 /  30  70  80  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/75



000
FXUS64 KSJT 031826
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1226 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Expect gradual improvement into VFR ranges across West Central
Texas this afternoon; but, MVFR ceilings return south overnight.
Models indicate ceilings will continue to improve this afternoon.
As for MVFR ceilings returning overnight, confidence is moderate
for the Sonora, Junction, and Brady terminals. For the San Angelo
and Abilene terminals, confidence is low for MVFR ceilings
returning overnight.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Visibilities fell as low as 1/4 mile earlier this morning, but
have since improved across much of the CWA. However, ceilings
remain IFR or lower for the most part. These ceilings will slowly
improve this morning and are expected to lift by 18z. Southwest
winds are expected to develop this morning, occasionally gusting
around 20 kts through mid-afternoon. After 20z, wind speeds are
forecast to diminish due to the proximity of a surface trough.
Expect light and variable winds overnight, but a strong cold
front will be approaching KABI by 12z. Rain chances will increase
overnight, but should have minimal operational impact.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low clouds, drizzle, and fog continue across West Central TX
early this morning. Visibilities have fallen to 1/2 mile or less
at many observation sites, prompting a Dense Fog Advisory through
mid-morning. Visibilities will likely improve after sunrise and
the advisory may end up being canceled early. We`ll hang on to the
low clouds through the day, but the drizzle and fog should
diminish by noon as low-level winds veer to the southwest.

The models have been zealous in mixing out this wedge of cold air
the past few days, and today`s runs are no exception. Temperatures
at 850 mb are still progged to warm to 14-16C this afternoon, a
jump of 6-8C from Monday. This would normally suggest to a warm-up
of 10-15F, but mixing heights yesterday remained well below 900
mb. Despite the run of cold weather, we still anticipate
temperatures taking quite a leap forward today, topping out in
the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. There is some bust potential
with this temperature forecast. If low clouds remain stubborn, we
could be a good 10 degrees cooler. In addition, the downslope
component of the low-level winds is not optimal and wind speeds
are relatively weak during the afternoon hours due to the
proximity of a surface trough.

This surface trough looks to sit over the Big Country this
evening, eventually giving way to the next arctic cold front. This
front is forecast to reach I-20 by 12z, ushering in strong north
winds and much colder air. Ahead of this front, elevated
convection will be possible as a shortwave trough approaches west
TX. Thunder was retained overnight for all zones, with a decent
chance for showers (with the best chances in the northern zones).

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

The focus in the long term will continue to be the much colder
air, and precipitation moving into the area Wednesday/Wednesday
night.

The next arctic front will be moving south through the forecast
area at the beginning of the long term forecast period. Will go
with the faster GFS/ECMWF timing of the cold front as opposed to
the slower NAM. With an arctic air mass like this, would expect
the front to be faster rather than slower. Expect the front to be
near the I-20 corridor by early Wednesday morning, through the
Concho Valley by noon, and through the I-10 corridor by the
evening hours. As this front moves through, the upper level low
currently off the southern coast of California will be lifting
northeast towards the area as an open wave. As the wave
approaches, upper level lift will move into the area. We will be
underneath the right entrance region of a 170+ knot jet streak
extending into the Great Lakes region. In addition, 850mb-700mb
frontogenetical forcing will move south through the area behind
the surface cold front. These factors will combine to give the
area a good chance for precipitation, and with the elevated
instability, we may see some thunderstorms as well. Have kept the
chance for thunderstorms confined mainly to southern areas for
now, although a few lightning strikes farther north cannot be
ruled out. The timing for the best chances for precipitation will
be during the day Wednesday. Wednesday night, the dry slot will
move in over the area wrapping around the southern end of the low,
effectively ending precipitation between midnight and 6 AM
Thursday.

The main challenge associated with the precipitation will be what
type. Have not made any wholesale changes to the inherited
forecast. With the front moving through during the day, expect
highs to be reach during the morning hours across the Big Country,
and mid-day farther south. Temperatures will fall rapidly behind
the front, and possibly below freezing for the Big Country during
the afternoon hours. Vertical profiles rapidly cool as well,
suggesting a change from liquid precipitation to a wintry mix by
late morning for the Big Country that could include sleet, snow,
and/or freezing rain. Will not try to get too clever with
precipitation type at this point, so have kept mainly a rain/sleet
mix, changing to sleet/snow during the afternoon and evening
hours. Then overnight, mainly snow is expected, except for the
I-10 corridor where either a mix of sleet and snow, or freezing
drizzle will be possible. Will keep just a slight chance of snow
or sleet after midnight, and move most of the precipitation out of
the area by Thursday morning.

Thursday will be cold as well as this air mass will likely hang
around for at least one more day under cloudy skies, and continue
northeasterly surface flow. Highs Thursday will only reach the
upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows during this time period will be
mainly in the 20s. By Friday, we should see begin a warming trend,
and possibly some peeks at the sun. On Saturday, another cold
front is expected, but this front is not expected to be anywhere
near as strong as Wednesday`s, and should just temporarily slow
the warm-up down a little bit. Expect temperatures back into the
60s by Sunday.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  41  45  21  36  21 /  50  70  30  10   5
San Angelo  48  52  25  40  23 /  30  60  40  10   5
Junction  50  60  28  39  23 /  30  60  60  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 031826
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1226 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Expect gradual improvement into VFR ranges across West Central
Texas this afternoon; but, MVFR ceilings return south overnight.
Models indicate ceilings will continue to improve this afternoon.
As for MVFR ceilings returning overnight, confidence is moderate
for the Sonora, Junction, and Brady terminals. For the San Angelo
and Abilene terminals, confidence is low for MVFR ceilings
returning overnight.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Visibilities fell as low as 1/4 mile earlier this morning, but
have since improved across much of the CWA. However, ceilings
remain IFR or lower for the most part. These ceilings will slowly
improve this morning and are expected to lift by 18z. Southwest
winds are expected to develop this morning, occasionally gusting
around 20 kts through mid-afternoon. After 20z, wind speeds are
forecast to diminish due to the proximity of a surface trough.
Expect light and variable winds overnight, but a strong cold
front will be approaching KABI by 12z. Rain chances will increase
overnight, but should have minimal operational impact.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low clouds, drizzle, and fog continue across West Central TX
early this morning. Visibilities have fallen to 1/2 mile or less
at many observation sites, prompting a Dense Fog Advisory through
mid-morning. Visibilities will likely improve after sunrise and
the advisory may end up being canceled early. We`ll hang on to the
low clouds through the day, but the drizzle and fog should
diminish by noon as low-level winds veer to the southwest.

The models have been zealous in mixing out this wedge of cold air
the past few days, and today`s runs are no exception. Temperatures
at 850 mb are still progged to warm to 14-16C this afternoon, a
jump of 6-8C from Monday. This would normally suggest to a warm-up
of 10-15F, but mixing heights yesterday remained well below 900
mb. Despite the run of cold weather, we still anticipate
temperatures taking quite a leap forward today, topping out in
the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. There is some bust potential
with this temperature forecast. If low clouds remain stubborn, we
could be a good 10 degrees cooler. In addition, the downslope
component of the low-level winds is not optimal and wind speeds
are relatively weak during the afternoon hours due to the
proximity of a surface trough.

This surface trough looks to sit over the Big Country this
evening, eventually giving way to the next arctic cold front. This
front is forecast to reach I-20 by 12z, ushering in strong north
winds and much colder air. Ahead of this front, elevated
convection will be possible as a shortwave trough approaches west
TX. Thunder was retained overnight for all zones, with a decent
chance for showers (with the best chances in the northern zones).

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

The focus in the long term will continue to be the much colder
air, and precipitation moving into the area Wednesday/Wednesday
night.

The next arctic front will be moving south through the forecast
area at the beginning of the long term forecast period. Will go
with the faster GFS/ECMWF timing of the cold front as opposed to
the slower NAM. With an arctic air mass like this, would expect
the front to be faster rather than slower. Expect the front to be
near the I-20 corridor by early Wednesday morning, through the
Concho Valley by noon, and through the I-10 corridor by the
evening hours. As this front moves through, the upper level low
currently off the southern coast of California will be lifting
northeast towards the area as an open wave. As the wave
approaches, upper level lift will move into the area. We will be
underneath the right entrance region of a 170+ knot jet streak
extending into the Great Lakes region. In addition, 850mb-700mb
frontogenetical forcing will move south through the area behind
the surface cold front. These factors will combine to give the
area a good chance for precipitation, and with the elevated
instability, we may see some thunderstorms as well. Have kept the
chance for thunderstorms confined mainly to southern areas for
now, although a few lightning strikes farther north cannot be
ruled out. The timing for the best chances for precipitation will
be during the day Wednesday. Wednesday night, the dry slot will
move in over the area wrapping around the southern end of the low,
effectively ending precipitation between midnight and 6 AM
Thursday.

The main challenge associated with the precipitation will be what
type. Have not made any wholesale changes to the inherited
forecast. With the front moving through during the day, expect
highs to be reach during the morning hours across the Big Country,
and mid-day farther south. Temperatures will fall rapidly behind
the front, and possibly below freezing for the Big Country during
the afternoon hours. Vertical profiles rapidly cool as well,
suggesting a change from liquid precipitation to a wintry mix by
late morning for the Big Country that could include sleet, snow,
and/or freezing rain. Will not try to get too clever with
precipitation type at this point, so have kept mainly a rain/sleet
mix, changing to sleet/snow during the afternoon and evening
hours. Then overnight, mainly snow is expected, except for the
I-10 corridor where either a mix of sleet and snow, or freezing
drizzle will be possible. Will keep just a slight chance of snow
or sleet after midnight, and move most of the precipitation out of
the area by Thursday morning.

Thursday will be cold as well as this air mass will likely hang
around for at least one more day under cloudy skies, and continue
northeasterly surface flow. Highs Thursday will only reach the
upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows during this time period will be
mainly in the 20s. By Friday, we should see begin a warming trend,
and possibly some peeks at the sun. On Saturday, another cold
front is expected, but this front is not expected to be anywhere
near as strong as Wednesday`s, and should just temporarily slow
the warm-up down a little bit. Expect temperatures back into the
60s by Sunday.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  41  45  21  36  21 /  50  70  30  10   5
San Angelo  48  52  25  40  23 /  30  60  40  10   5
Junction  50  60  28  39  23 /  30  60  60  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 031826
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1226 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Expect gradual improvement into VFR ranges across West Central
Texas this afternoon; but, MVFR ceilings return south overnight.
Models indicate ceilings will continue to improve this afternoon.
As for MVFR ceilings returning overnight, confidence is moderate
for the Sonora, Junction, and Brady terminals. For the San Angelo
and Abilene terminals, confidence is low for MVFR ceilings
returning overnight.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Visibilities fell as low as 1/4 mile earlier this morning, but
have since improved across much of the CWA. However, ceilings
remain IFR or lower for the most part. These ceilings will slowly
improve this morning and are expected to lift by 18z. Southwest
winds are expected to develop this morning, occasionally gusting
around 20 kts through mid-afternoon. After 20z, wind speeds are
forecast to diminish due to the proximity of a surface trough.
Expect light and variable winds overnight, but a strong cold
front will be approaching KABI by 12z. Rain chances will increase
overnight, but should have minimal operational impact.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low clouds, drizzle, and fog continue across West Central TX
early this morning. Visibilities have fallen to 1/2 mile or less
at many observation sites, prompting a Dense Fog Advisory through
mid-morning. Visibilities will likely improve after sunrise and
the advisory may end up being canceled early. We`ll hang on to the
low clouds through the day, but the drizzle and fog should
diminish by noon as low-level winds veer to the southwest.

The models have been zealous in mixing out this wedge of cold air
the past few days, and today`s runs are no exception. Temperatures
at 850 mb are still progged to warm to 14-16C this afternoon, a
jump of 6-8C from Monday. This would normally suggest to a warm-up
of 10-15F, but mixing heights yesterday remained well below 900
mb. Despite the run of cold weather, we still anticipate
temperatures taking quite a leap forward today, topping out in
the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. There is some bust potential
with this temperature forecast. If low clouds remain stubborn, we
could be a good 10 degrees cooler. In addition, the downslope
component of the low-level winds is not optimal and wind speeds
are relatively weak during the afternoon hours due to the
proximity of a surface trough.

This surface trough looks to sit over the Big Country this
evening, eventually giving way to the next arctic cold front. This
front is forecast to reach I-20 by 12z, ushering in strong north
winds and much colder air. Ahead of this front, elevated
convection will be possible as a shortwave trough approaches west
TX. Thunder was retained overnight for all zones, with a decent
chance for showers (with the best chances in the northern zones).

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

The focus in the long term will continue to be the much colder
air, and precipitation moving into the area Wednesday/Wednesday
night.

The next arctic front will be moving south through the forecast
area at the beginning of the long term forecast period. Will go
with the faster GFS/ECMWF timing of the cold front as opposed to
the slower NAM. With an arctic air mass like this, would expect
the front to be faster rather than slower. Expect the front to be
near the I-20 corridor by early Wednesday morning, through the
Concho Valley by noon, and through the I-10 corridor by the
evening hours. As this front moves through, the upper level low
currently off the southern coast of California will be lifting
northeast towards the area as an open wave. As the wave
approaches, upper level lift will move into the area. We will be
underneath the right entrance region of a 170+ knot jet streak
extending into the Great Lakes region. In addition, 850mb-700mb
frontogenetical forcing will move south through the area behind
the surface cold front. These factors will combine to give the
area a good chance for precipitation, and with the elevated
instability, we may see some thunderstorms as well. Have kept the
chance for thunderstorms confined mainly to southern areas for
now, although a few lightning strikes farther north cannot be
ruled out. The timing for the best chances for precipitation will
be during the day Wednesday. Wednesday night, the dry slot will
move in over the area wrapping around the southern end of the low,
effectively ending precipitation between midnight and 6 AM
Thursday.

The main challenge associated with the precipitation will be what
type. Have not made any wholesale changes to the inherited
forecast. With the front moving through during the day, expect
highs to be reach during the morning hours across the Big Country,
and mid-day farther south. Temperatures will fall rapidly behind
the front, and possibly below freezing for the Big Country during
the afternoon hours. Vertical profiles rapidly cool as well,
suggesting a change from liquid precipitation to a wintry mix by
late morning for the Big Country that could include sleet, snow,
and/or freezing rain. Will not try to get too clever with
precipitation type at this point, so have kept mainly a rain/sleet
mix, changing to sleet/snow during the afternoon and evening
hours. Then overnight, mainly snow is expected, except for the
I-10 corridor where either a mix of sleet and snow, or freezing
drizzle will be possible. Will keep just a slight chance of snow
or sleet after midnight, and move most of the precipitation out of
the area by Thursday morning.

Thursday will be cold as well as this air mass will likely hang
around for at least one more day under cloudy skies, and continue
northeasterly surface flow. Highs Thursday will only reach the
upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows during this time period will be
mainly in the 20s. By Friday, we should see begin a warming trend,
and possibly some peeks at the sun. On Saturday, another cold
front is expected, but this front is not expected to be anywhere
near as strong as Wednesday`s, and should just temporarily slow
the warm-up down a little bit. Expect temperatures back into the
60s by Sunday.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  41  45  21  36  21 /  50  70  30  10   5
San Angelo  48  52  25  40  23 /  30  60  40  10   5
Junction  50  60  28  39  23 /  30  60  60  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 031826
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1226 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Expect gradual improvement into VFR ranges across West Central
Texas this afternoon; but, MVFR ceilings return south overnight.
Models indicate ceilings will continue to improve this afternoon.
As for MVFR ceilings returning overnight, confidence is moderate
for the Sonora, Junction, and Brady terminals. For the San Angelo
and Abilene terminals, confidence is low for MVFR ceilings
returning overnight.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Visibilities fell as low as 1/4 mile earlier this morning, but
have since improved across much of the CWA. However, ceilings
remain IFR or lower for the most part. These ceilings will slowly
improve this morning and are expected to lift by 18z. Southwest
winds are expected to develop this morning, occasionally gusting
around 20 kts through mid-afternoon. After 20z, wind speeds are
forecast to diminish due to the proximity of a surface trough.
Expect light and variable winds overnight, but a strong cold
front will be approaching KABI by 12z. Rain chances will increase
overnight, but should have minimal operational impact.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Low clouds, drizzle, and fog continue across West Central TX
early this morning. Visibilities have fallen to 1/2 mile or less
at many observation sites, prompting a Dense Fog Advisory through
mid-morning. Visibilities will likely improve after sunrise and
the advisory may end up being canceled early. We`ll hang on to the
low clouds through the day, but the drizzle and fog should
diminish by noon as low-level winds veer to the southwest.

The models have been zealous in mixing out this wedge of cold air
the past few days, and today`s runs are no exception. Temperatures
at 850 mb are still progged to warm to 14-16C this afternoon, a
jump of 6-8C from Monday. This would normally suggest to a warm-up
of 10-15F, but mixing heights yesterday remained well below 900
mb. Despite the run of cold weather, we still anticipate
temperatures taking quite a leap forward today, topping out in
the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. There is some bust potential
with this temperature forecast. If low clouds remain stubborn, we
could be a good 10 degrees cooler. In addition, the downslope
component of the low-level winds is not optimal and wind speeds
are relatively weak during the afternoon hours due to the
proximity of a surface trough.

This surface trough looks to sit over the Big Country this
evening, eventually giving way to the next arctic cold front. This
front is forecast to reach I-20 by 12z, ushering in strong north
winds and much colder air. Ahead of this front, elevated
convection will be possible as a shortwave trough approaches west
TX. Thunder was retained overnight for all zones, with a decent
chance for showers (with the best chances in the northern zones).

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

The focus in the long term will continue to be the much colder
air, and precipitation moving into the area Wednesday/Wednesday
night.

The next arctic front will be moving south through the forecast
area at the beginning of the long term forecast period. Will go
with the faster GFS/ECMWF timing of the cold front as opposed to
the slower NAM. With an arctic air mass like this, would expect
the front to be faster rather than slower. Expect the front to be
near the I-20 corridor by early Wednesday morning, through the
Concho Valley by noon, and through the I-10 corridor by the
evening hours. As this front moves through, the upper level low
currently off the southern coast of California will be lifting
northeast towards the area as an open wave. As the wave
approaches, upper level lift will move into the area. We will be
underneath the right entrance region of a 170+ knot jet streak
extending into the Great Lakes region. In addition, 850mb-700mb
frontogenetical forcing will move south through the area behind
the surface cold front. These factors will combine to give the
area a good chance for precipitation, and with the elevated
instability, we may see some thunderstorms as well. Have kept the
chance for thunderstorms confined mainly to southern areas for
now, although a few lightning strikes farther north cannot be
ruled out. The timing for the best chances for precipitation will
be during the day Wednesday. Wednesday night, the dry slot will
move in over the area wrapping around the southern end of the low,
effectively ending precipitation between midnight and 6 AM
Thursday.

The main challenge associated with the precipitation will be what
type. Have not made any wholesale changes to the inherited
forecast. With the front moving through during the day, expect
highs to be reach during the morning hours across the Big Country,
and mid-day farther south. Temperatures will fall rapidly behind
the front, and possibly below freezing for the Big Country during
the afternoon hours. Vertical profiles rapidly cool as well,
suggesting a change from liquid precipitation to a wintry mix by
late morning for the Big Country that could include sleet, snow,
and/or freezing rain. Will not try to get too clever with
precipitation type at this point, so have kept mainly a rain/sleet
mix, changing to sleet/snow during the afternoon and evening
hours. Then overnight, mainly snow is expected, except for the
I-10 corridor where either a mix of sleet and snow, or freezing
drizzle will be possible. Will keep just a slight chance of snow
or sleet after midnight, and move most of the precipitation out of
the area by Thursday morning.

Thursday will be cold as well as this air mass will likely hang
around for at least one more day under cloudy skies, and continue
northeasterly surface flow. Highs Thursday will only reach the
upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows during this time period will be
mainly in the 20s. By Friday, we should see begin a warming trend,
and possibly some peeks at the sun. On Saturday, another cold
front is expected, but this front is not expected to be anywhere
near as strong as Wednesday`s, and should just temporarily slow
the warm-up down a little bit. Expect temperatures back into the
60s by Sunday.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  41  45  21  36  21 /  50  70  30  10   5
San Angelo  48  52  25  40  23 /  30  60  40  10   5
Junction  50  60  28  39  23 /  30  60  60  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHGX 031824
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1224 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CIGS/VIS SLOWLY IMPROVING THIS AFTN AS FOG BEGINS TO MIX OUT. DID
NOT GO WITH A REPEAT OF THE DENSE (VLIFR/LIFR) FOG TONIGHT FOR IN-
LAND LOCALES GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING ONSHORE WINDS OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER NOT BEING AS OPTIMISTIC FOR THE COASTAL SITES
OF GLS (PRIMARILY)/LBX (SECONDARILY) AS CONDITIONS FOR THE CONTIN-
UATION OF SEA FOG PERSIST. LIKELY NO RELIEF WITH THIS UNTIL/AFTER
THE COLD FRONT WEDS. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

INLAND FOG IS LIFTING...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS WHERE TEMPS REMAIN THE 50S NORTHWEST OF A WARM
FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED FROM DKR TO UTS TO NEAR
COLUMBUS. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WE WILL SEE THE FOG LIFT. FOG OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT...MAY LIFT BRIEFLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE UPDATE...ADJUSTED TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS NW AREAS.
STILL EXPECT ISO SHWRS THIS AFT...POSSIBLY SCATTERED ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE WARM FRONT. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      67  62  69  30  40 /  30  30  80  60  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  64  73  34  42 /  20  20  60  70  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  61  70  38  43 /  20  20  40  70  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...41




000
FXUS64 KHGX 031824
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1224 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CIGS/VIS SLOWLY IMPROVING THIS AFTN AS FOG BEGINS TO MIX OUT. DID
NOT GO WITH A REPEAT OF THE DENSE (VLIFR/LIFR) FOG TONIGHT FOR IN-
LAND LOCALES GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING ONSHORE WINDS OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER NOT BEING AS OPTIMISTIC FOR THE COASTAL SITES
OF GLS (PRIMARILY)/LBX (SECONDARILY) AS CONDITIONS FOR THE CONTIN-
UATION OF SEA FOG PERSIST. LIKELY NO RELIEF WITH THIS UNTIL/AFTER
THE COLD FRONT WEDS. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

INLAND FOG IS LIFTING...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS WHERE TEMPS REMAIN THE 50S NORTHWEST OF A WARM
FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED FROM DKR TO UTS TO NEAR
COLUMBUS. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WE WILL SEE THE FOG LIFT. FOG OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT...MAY LIFT BRIEFLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE UPDATE...ADJUSTED TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS NW AREAS.
STILL EXPECT ISO SHWRS THIS AFT...POSSIBLY SCATTERED ACROSS THE
NORTH IN THE VCNTY OF THE WARM FRONT. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      67  62  69  30  40 /  30  30  80  60  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  64  73  34  42 /  20  20  60  70  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  61  70  38  43 /  20  20  40  70  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...41



000
FXUS64 KEWX 031808 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1208 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT NOON. STILL SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 THAT WILL SEE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE AND PATCHY
LOCATIONS NEAR 1/4 MILE. WILL HANDLE WITH NOWCAST UNLESS TRENDS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

JR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
FOG CONTINUES AND THIS ALONG WITH THE IFR/LIFR CIGS AND ARRIVAL OF
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE THE CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO CONTINUE AT THE I-35 SITES THROUGH MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON. ANY IMPROVEMENTS TO VISIBILITIES WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS. WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AT THE
I-35 SITES. HAVE INCLUDED PROB GROUPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO.
WILL BEGIN TO SEE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR CIGS AFTER 20Z FOR
THE 30 HOUR SITES. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD HAVE SHOWN A WIND
SHIFT AT KAUS AS THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THIS AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...FOG PERSISTS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOCATIONS ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. SOME LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING
DENSE VISIBILITIES...AND HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND A GOOD PORTION OF
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH
EITHER IFR OR LIFR EXPECTED. ALL TERMINALS WERE LIFR FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH DEL RIO LIFTING TO IFR AROUND 09Z. THE SAN ANTONIO
SITES HAVE NOW BEGUN TO BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/LIFR AS SHOWER HAVE
FORMED OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR. EXPECT IMPROVED IFR VISBY/CIGS WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT SAT/SSF
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

MODELS SHOW A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE I-35
TERMINALS WITH CIGS LIFTING TO IFR AND THE FOG DISSIPATING. THE
PERIOD OF IFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CIGS LOWER AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
AND MORE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE I-35 TERMINALS WILL
RETURN TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND REMAIN SOCKED IN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
SO HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT THE END OF THE TAF FOR THE 30
HOUR TAFS SITES TO REFLECT THIS. WINDS WOULD BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH
BY LATER TODAY AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

DEL RIO IS EXPECTED TO SEE CIGS RISE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE. BY 21Z DRT SHOULD BE VFR FOR A FEW
HOURS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. IFR CIGS RETURN TO DRT BY 06Z.

TREADWAY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING DUE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST OF ABOVE THE PERSISTENT COOL SURFACE RIDGE.
FINALLY EXPECT THE LONG ANTICIPATED SIGNIFICANT WARM UP TODAY AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE DENSE FOG WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE LINGERING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT DECREASES AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
TAKES HOLD ALLOWING FOR SOME SUN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. WE
WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS THERE THE LONGEST DUE
TO COOL AIR BANKING UP AGAINST THE ESCARPMENT. THE LOWER LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ALLOWING SOME STREAMER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO...WILL SURGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET
POSITION...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY
INDICATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. AN ABRUPT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS OUR AREA.


LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR AREA WILL BE
ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPWARD
MOTION FROM FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION PASSING OVERHEAD
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX
DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY IN THE EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO
A SLEET AND SNOW MIX WHILE SPREADING TO REMAINING AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 90...INCLUDING THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO TO THE
NORTHEAST. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE AS DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE WINDY
CONDITIONS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME RAIN
LINGERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS AS THE JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS. A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY
FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A
COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS
INTO A LOW A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND THEN MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION INCREASE LEADING TO
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AND NO WINTER PRECIPITATION
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  60  67  30  39 /  20  20  70  70  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  60  67  30  38 /  20  20  70  70  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  61  69  32  40 /  20  20  50  70  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  57  60  27  37 /  20  30  70  60  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  58  69  32  44 /  10  20  30  50  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  58  63  28  38 /  20  20  70  70  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  59  71  33  41 /  20  20  40  70  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  60  68  31  39 /  20  20  60  70  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  63  70  33  40 /  20  20  70  60  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  61  71  32  40 /  20  20  50  70  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  61  73  33  41 /  20  20  40  70  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KEWX 031808 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1208 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...ALLOWED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT NOON. STILL SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 THAT WILL SEE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE AND PATCHY
LOCATIONS NEAR 1/4 MILE. WILL HANDLE WITH NOWCAST UNLESS TRENDS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

JR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
FOG CONTINUES AND THIS ALONG WITH THE IFR/LIFR CIGS AND ARRIVAL OF
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE THE CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO CONTINUE AT THE I-35 SITES THROUGH MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON. ANY IMPROVEMENTS TO VISIBILITIES WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS. WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY AT THE
I-35 SITES. HAVE INCLUDED PROB GROUPS TO COVER THIS SCENARIO.
WILL BEGIN TO SEE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR CIGS AFTER 20Z FOR
THE 30 HOUR SITES. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD HAVE SHOWN A WIND
SHIFT AT KAUS AS THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THIS AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...FOG PERSISTS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOCATIONS ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. SOME LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING
DENSE VISIBILITIES...AND HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND A GOOD PORTION OF
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH
EITHER IFR OR LIFR EXPECTED. ALL TERMINALS WERE LIFR FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH DEL RIO LIFTING TO IFR AROUND 09Z. THE SAN ANTONIO
SITES HAVE NOW BEGUN TO BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/LIFR AS SHOWER HAVE
FORMED OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR. EXPECT IMPROVED IFR VISBY/CIGS WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN SHOWERS AT SAT/SSF
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

MODELS SHOW A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE I-35
TERMINALS WITH CIGS LIFTING TO IFR AND THE FOG DISSIPATING. THE
PERIOD OF IFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CIGS LOWER AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
AND MORE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE I-35 TERMINALS WILL
RETURN TO LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND REMAIN SOCKED IN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
SO HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT THE END OF THE TAF FOR THE 30
HOUR TAFS SITES TO REFLECT THIS. WINDS WOULD BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH
BY LATER TODAY AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

DEL RIO IS EXPECTED TO SEE CIGS RISE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE. BY 21Z DRT SHOULD BE VFR FOR A FEW
HOURS UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. IFR CIGS RETURN TO DRT BY 06Z.

TREADWAY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING DUE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST OF ABOVE THE PERSISTENT COOL SURFACE RIDGE.
FINALLY EXPECT THE LONG ANTICIPATED SIGNIFICANT WARM UP TODAY AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE DENSE FOG WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE LINGERING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC LIFT DECREASES AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
TAKES HOLD ALLOWING FOR SOME SUN AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. WE
WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS THERE THE LONGEST DUE
TO COOL AIR BANKING UP AGAINST THE ESCARPMENT. THE LOWER LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ALLOWING SOME STREAMER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO...WILL SURGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET
POSITION...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY
INDICATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. AN ABRUPT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS OUR AREA.


LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR AREA WILL BE
ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPWARD
MOTION FROM FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION PASSING OVERHEAD
AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX
DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY IN THE EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO
A SLEET AND SNOW MIX WHILE SPREADING TO REMAINING AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 90...INCLUDING THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO TO THE
NORTHEAST. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE AS DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERATE WINDY
CONDITIONS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME RAIN
LINGERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS AS THE JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS. A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY
FRIDAY MORNING AS CLOUDS DECREASE DUE TO CONTINUED DRYING AND A
COLD SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE REFORMS
INTO A LOW A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND THEN MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION INCREASE LEADING TO
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AND NO WINTER PRECIPITATION
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  60  67  30  39 /  20  20  70  70  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  60  67  30  38 /  20  20  70  70  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  61  69  32  40 /  20  20  50  70  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            63  57  60  27  37 /  20  30  70  60  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  58  69  32  44 /  10  20  30  50  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  58  63  28  38 /  20  20  70  70  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             65  59  71  33  41 /  20  20  40  70  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  60  68  31  39 /  20  20  60  70  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   69  63  70  33  40 /  20  20  70  60  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  61  71  32  40 /  20  20  50  70  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           64  61  73  33  41 /  20  20  40  70  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






000
FXUS64 KLUB 031742
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED LATE THIS MORNING AND THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT CATEGORIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF
AFFECTING THE TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. INTO TONIGHT...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
AFFECTING KCDS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SWEEPING SE THROUGH SUNRISE.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH ICING POTENTIAL
ALONG WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE IS ANTICIPATED.
MORNING CARGO/MEDICAL FLIGHTS VERY WELL COULD BE IMPACTED WITH
CONDITIONS WORSENING THROUGH 18Z WED.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COOL AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BUT
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND HAVE HAD BRIEF PERIODS
OF DENSE FOG AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREAD IS VERY CLOSE OR
ZERO IN SOME CASES.  ALOFT...THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN EDGE STARTING TO PUSH OVER US.
THIS HAS ALLOWED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO ALSO PUSH OVER THE REGION
AS SHOWN BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
ALL OF THESE FEATURES COMBINED ARE MAKING FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

FIRST ISSUE WILL BE WHEN OR IF WE WILL SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT.
REGIONAL SURFACE HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS NO DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO.  WITH SURFACE WIND REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED AS THIS
AIRMASS IS ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...A LAYER OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AROUND 700 HPA.  AS THE
CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WHICH
DOES NOT FAVOR CLOUD COVER GOING AWAY EITHER.  HOWEVER AS THE TROF
APPROACHES...THE JET AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE JET MAY ALLOW SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A CONTEST BETWEEN SKIES
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE COOL SIDE VERSUS WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY OFFSETTING THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE WARMER
SIDE.  DID COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS MODELS
WERE GOING NEAR 70 DEGREES BUT KEPT HIGHS ON THE CAPROCK CLOSE TO 60.

NEXT ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY IS PRECIPITATION.  SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
PROVIDING PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODERATE LIFT.  MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  HARD TO SAY WHETHER THIS
WILL HAPPEN AS LACK OF INSOLATION WILL HAMPER ANY KIND OF SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY AND SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW VERY MEAGER TO NON-
EXISTENT AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ALOFT.  DID INCREASE POPS SOME FOR
THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL MAINTAINED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW IN
THE WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
AND SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH THE DAY AS UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS
TO HOW POPS WILL DEVELOP.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND DO NOT HAVE IT
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE LOW TEMPERATURES WERE BROUGHT
UP ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY LIQUID SOUTH OF A MULESHOE...TULIA...
FLOYDADA...TO PADUCAH LINE AS TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THAT LINE WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  NORTH OF THAT
LINE...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN AND SLEET...THEN
ALL SLEET...THEN FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 6 AM TOMORROW AS A FIRST GUESS.
STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAST THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE AS MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW QUICKLY TO COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH
THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.  MODELS HAVE HAD A MUCH
FASTER PROGRESSION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS SO AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS
WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE STORY OF THE NEVER ENDING WINTER CONTINUES AS MORE WINTRY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED WED INTO THURS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY SUNRISE WED. THAT MEANS BREAK
OUT THE THERMOS OF COFFEE AND HOT COCOA BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURE YOU
FEEL WHEN YOU STEP OUTSIDE THAT MORNING WILL BE THE WARMEST IT WILL
BE ALL DAY. STRONG CAA IN ADDITION TO THICK CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP STEADILY DURING THE DAY. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL KEEP
MORNING TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S. THOUGH GETTING THE HIGH TEMP IS A BIT
OF A CHALLENGE ITSELF...THE BIGGER CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING THE P-
TYPE THROUGH MID DAY. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY FROZEN
PRECIP...SNOW AND SLEET...FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA AFTER 6AM
AS COLD AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGINNING TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW THROUGH NOON.
AFTER NOON SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FA
THUS ELIMINATING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE QUESTION THEN REMAINS OF
HOW LONG WILL SLEET MIX IN WITH SNOW BEFORE PRECIP IS ALL SNOW.
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA...HOWEVER
MODEL SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON WHEN THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE WILL ERODE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH THE GFS COOLING FASTER
THAN THE NAM. THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL EFFECT
THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT
A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY 3PM. CURRENT THINKING WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IS 1-2 INCHES SHOULD BE THE AVERAGE ACROSS THE FA. THE
MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE HINTING AT ENERGY FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD HELP DEVELOP BANDING LATER WED
EVENING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT WPC ACCUMULATION GUIDANCE SHOWING THAT THE
HIGHER SIDE OF POSSIBLE SNOWFALL...THE 90TH PERCENTILE...IS IN THE
4-6 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL STAY 1-2 INCHES BUT
WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.

SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN TO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE
TROF WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE MID30S/LOW 40S THURS.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WHEN A WEAK AND DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO REAL AFFECT ON TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS PUSHING CLOSE TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. A WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY HELPING WARM TEMPS INTO THE 60S. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW THE SUN...WHO HAS BEEN IN HIDING FOR SOME TIME...TO COME
OUT.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  28  28  11 /  20  30  50  20
TULIA         62  27  27  13 /  20  30  70  20
PLAINVIEW     61  32  32  13 /  30  30  70  20
LEVELLAND     62  37  37  15 /  30  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       62  35  35  14 /  30  30  60  30
DENVER CITY   61  42  42  18 /  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    62  41  41  17 /  30  30  60  30
CHILDRESS     62  29  29  15 /  30  40  70  20
SPUR          65  35  35  19 /  10  40  60  30
ASPERMONT     66  40  40  22 /  10  50  60  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26



000
FXUS64 KLUB 031742
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED LATE THIS MORNING AND THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT CATEGORIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF
AFFECTING THE TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. INTO TONIGHT...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
AFFECTING KCDS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SWEEPING SE THROUGH SUNRISE.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH ICING POTENTIAL
ALONG WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE IS ANTICIPATED.
MORNING CARGO/MEDICAL FLIGHTS VERY WELL COULD BE IMPACTED WITH
CONDITIONS WORSENING THROUGH 18Z WED.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COOL AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BUT
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND HAVE HAD BRIEF PERIODS
OF DENSE FOG AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREAD IS VERY CLOSE OR
ZERO IN SOME CASES.  ALOFT...THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN EDGE STARTING TO PUSH OVER US.
THIS HAS ALLOWED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO ALSO PUSH OVER THE REGION
AS SHOWN BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
ALL OF THESE FEATURES COMBINED ARE MAKING FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

FIRST ISSUE WILL BE WHEN OR IF WE WILL SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT.
REGIONAL SURFACE HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS NO DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO.  WITH SURFACE WIND REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED AS THIS
AIRMASS IS ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...A LAYER OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AROUND 700 HPA.  AS THE
CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WHICH
DOES NOT FAVOR CLOUD COVER GOING AWAY EITHER.  HOWEVER AS THE TROF
APPROACHES...THE JET AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE JET MAY ALLOW SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A CONTEST BETWEEN SKIES
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE COOL SIDE VERSUS WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY OFFSETTING THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE WARMER
SIDE.  DID COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS MODELS
WERE GOING NEAR 70 DEGREES BUT KEPT HIGHS ON THE CAPROCK CLOSE TO 60.

NEXT ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY IS PRECIPITATION.  SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
PROVIDING PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODERATE LIFT.  MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  HARD TO SAY WHETHER THIS
WILL HAPPEN AS LACK OF INSOLATION WILL HAMPER ANY KIND OF SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY AND SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW VERY MEAGER TO NON-
EXISTENT AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ALOFT.  DID INCREASE POPS SOME FOR
THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL MAINTAINED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW IN
THE WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
AND SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH THE DAY AS UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS
TO HOW POPS WILL DEVELOP.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND DO NOT HAVE IT
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE LOW TEMPERATURES WERE BROUGHT
UP ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY LIQUID SOUTH OF A MULESHOE...TULIA...
FLOYDADA...TO PADUCAH LINE AS TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THAT LINE WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  NORTH OF THAT
LINE...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN AND SLEET...THEN
ALL SLEET...THEN FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 6 AM TOMORROW AS A FIRST GUESS.
STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAST THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE AS MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW QUICKLY TO COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH
THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.  MODELS HAVE HAD A MUCH
FASTER PROGRESSION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS SO AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS
WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE STORY OF THE NEVER ENDING WINTER CONTINUES AS MORE WINTRY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED WED INTO THURS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY SUNRISE WED. THAT MEANS BREAK
OUT THE THERMOS OF COFFEE AND HOT COCOA BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURE YOU
FEEL WHEN YOU STEP OUTSIDE THAT MORNING WILL BE THE WARMEST IT WILL
BE ALL DAY. STRONG CAA IN ADDITION TO THICK CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP STEADILY DURING THE DAY. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL KEEP
MORNING TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S. THOUGH GETTING THE HIGH TEMP IS A BIT
OF A CHALLENGE ITSELF...THE BIGGER CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING THE P-
TYPE THROUGH MID DAY. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY FROZEN
PRECIP...SNOW AND SLEET...FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA AFTER 6AM
AS COLD AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGINNING TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW THROUGH NOON.
AFTER NOON SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FA
THUS ELIMINATING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE QUESTION THEN REMAINS OF
HOW LONG WILL SLEET MIX IN WITH SNOW BEFORE PRECIP IS ALL SNOW.
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA...HOWEVER
MODEL SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON WHEN THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE WILL ERODE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH THE GFS COOLING FASTER
THAN THE NAM. THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL EFFECT
THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT
A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY 3PM. CURRENT THINKING WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IS 1-2 INCHES SHOULD BE THE AVERAGE ACROSS THE FA. THE
MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE HINTING AT ENERGY FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD HELP DEVELOP BANDING LATER WED
EVENING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT WPC ACCUMULATION GUIDANCE SHOWING THAT THE
HIGHER SIDE OF POSSIBLE SNOWFALL...THE 90TH PERCENTILE...IS IN THE
4-6 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL STAY 1-2 INCHES BUT
WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.

SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN TO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE
TROF WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE MID30S/LOW 40S THURS.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WHEN A WEAK AND DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO REAL AFFECT ON TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS PUSHING CLOSE TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. A WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY HELPING WARM TEMPS INTO THE 60S. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW THE SUN...WHO HAS BEEN IN HIDING FOR SOME TIME...TO COME
OUT.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  28  28  11 /  20  30  50  20
TULIA         62  27  27  13 /  20  30  70  20
PLAINVIEW     61  32  32  13 /  30  30  70  20
LEVELLAND     62  37  37  15 /  30  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       62  35  35  14 /  30  30  60  30
DENVER CITY   61  42  42  18 /  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    62  41  41  17 /  30  30  60  30
CHILDRESS     62  29  29  15 /  30  40  70  20
SPUR          65  35  35  19 /  10  40  60  30
ASPERMONT     66  40  40  22 /  10  50  60  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26



000
FXUS64 KLUB 031742
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED LATE THIS MORNING AND THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT CATEGORIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF
AFFECTING THE TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT MENTION AT
THIS TIME. INTO TONIGHT...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
AFFECTING KCDS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SWEEPING SE THROUGH SUNRISE.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...LOW IFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH ICING POTENTIAL
ALONG WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE IS ANTICIPATED.
MORNING CARGO/MEDICAL FLIGHTS VERY WELL COULD BE IMPACTED WITH
CONDITIONS WORSENING THROUGH 18Z WED.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COOL AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BUT
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND HAVE HAD BRIEF PERIODS
OF DENSE FOG AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREAD IS VERY CLOSE OR
ZERO IN SOME CASES.  ALOFT...THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION WITH THE EASTERN EDGE STARTING TO PUSH OVER US.
THIS HAS ALLOWED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO ALSO PUSH OVER THE REGION
AS SHOWN BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
ALL OF THESE FEATURES COMBINED ARE MAKING FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

FIRST ISSUE WILL BE WHEN OR IF WE WILL SEE SKIES CLEAR OUT.
REGIONAL SURFACE HAND ANALYSIS SHOWS NO DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO.  WITH SURFACE WIND REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED AS THIS
AIRMASS IS ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...A LAYER OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AROUND 700 HPA.  AS THE
CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WHICH
DOES NOT FAVOR CLOUD COVER GOING AWAY EITHER.  HOWEVER AS THE TROF
APPROACHES...THE JET AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE JET MAY ALLOW SOME CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A CONTEST BETWEEN SKIES
STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY FOR THE COOL SIDE VERSUS WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY OFFSETTING THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE WARMER
SIDE.  DID COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS MODELS
WERE GOING NEAR 70 DEGREES BUT KEPT HIGHS ON THE CAPROCK CLOSE TO 60.

NEXT ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY IS PRECIPITATION.  SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
PROVIDING PERIODS OF WEAK TO MODERATE LIFT.  MODELS SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE ROBUST AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  HARD TO SAY WHETHER THIS
WILL HAPPEN AS LACK OF INSOLATION WILL HAMPER ANY KIND OF SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY AND SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW VERY MEAGER TO NON-
EXISTENT AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY ALOFT.  DID INCREASE POPS SOME FOR
THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL MAINTAINED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW IN
THE WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
AND SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH THE DAY AS UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS
TO HOW POPS WILL DEVELOP.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND DO NOT HAVE IT
THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE LOW TEMPERATURES WERE BROUGHT
UP ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY LIQUID SOUTH OF A MULESHOE...TULIA...
FLOYDADA...TO PADUCAH LINE AS TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THAT LINE WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  NORTH OF THAT
LINE...WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN...TO RAIN AND SLEET...THEN
ALL SLEET...THEN FINALLY ALL SNOW BY 6 AM TOMORROW AS A FIRST GUESS.
STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAST THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE AS MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW QUICKLY TO COOL THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH
THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE AREA.  MODELS HAVE HAD A MUCH
FASTER PROGRESSION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS SO AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS
WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE STORY OF THE NEVER ENDING WINTER CONTINUES AS MORE WINTRY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED WED INTO THURS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY SUNRISE WED. THAT MEANS BREAK
OUT THE THERMOS OF COFFEE AND HOT COCOA BECAUSE THE TEMPERATURE YOU
FEEL WHEN YOU STEP OUTSIDE THAT MORNING WILL BE THE WARMEST IT WILL
BE ALL DAY. STRONG CAA IN ADDITION TO THICK CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP STEADILY DURING THE DAY. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL KEEP
MORNING TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S. THOUGH GETTING THE HIGH TEMP IS A BIT
OF A CHALLENGE ITSELF...THE BIGGER CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING THE P-
TYPE THROUGH MID DAY. SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY FROZEN
PRECIP...SNOW AND SLEET...FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA AFTER 6AM
AS COLD AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
SHOULD SEE RAIN BEGINNING TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW THROUGH NOON.
AFTER NOON SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FA
THUS ELIMINATING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE QUESTION THEN REMAINS OF
HOW LONG WILL SLEET MIX IN WITH SNOW BEFORE PRECIP IS ALL SNOW.
ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA...HOWEVER
MODEL SOUNDINGS DIFFER ON WHEN THE ELEVATED WARM NOSE WILL ERODE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH THE GFS COOLING FASTER
THAN THE NAM. THE TIMING OF THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL EFFECT
THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT
A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY 3PM. CURRENT THINKING WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IS 1-2 INCHES SHOULD BE THE AVERAGE ACROSS THE FA. THE
MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE HINTING AT ENERGY FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD HELP DEVELOP BANDING LATER WED
EVENING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT WPC ACCUMULATION GUIDANCE SHOWING THAT THE
HIGHER SIDE OF POSSIBLE SNOWFALL...THE 90TH PERCENTILE...IS IN THE
4-6 INCH RANGE. FOR NOW FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL STAY 1-2 INCHES BUT
WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.

SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN TO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SURFACE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE
TROF WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE MID30S/LOW 40S THURS.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WHEN A WEAK AND DRY FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO REAL AFFECT ON TEMPS FOR SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS PUSHING CLOSE TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. A WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON
SUNDAY HELPING WARM TEMPS INTO THE 60S. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW THE SUN...WHO HAS BEEN IN HIDING FOR SOME TIME...TO COME
OUT.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  28  28  11 /  20  30  50  20
TULIA         62  27  27  13 /  20  30  70  20
PLAINVIEW     61  32  32  13 /  30  30  70  20
LEVELLAND     62  37  37  15 /  30  30  50  30
LUBBOCK       62  35  35  14 /  30  30  60  30
DENVER CITY   61  42  42  18 /  30  30  50  30
BROWNFIELD    62  41  41  17 /  30  30  60  30
CHILDRESS     62  29  29  15 /  30  40  70  20
SPUR          65  35  35  19 /  10  40  60  30
ASPERMONT     66  40  40  22 /  10  50  60  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26




000
FXUS64 KMAF 031737
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1137 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
All locations are showing improving conditions with VFR expected
by 19Z. There is a chance for a return of low clouds and fog
tonight but models are showing VFR so confidence not high enough
to introduce into the TAFs at this time. Another strong cold front
will arrive late in this TAF period or shortly thereafter.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS.  HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL A LITTLE EARLY.  UPDATED
PRODUCTS ON THERE WAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A complicated forecast today including, the good riddance of an
arctic airmass, fog this morning, rain chances today and tonight,
the arrival of the next arctic airmass, wintry precipitation chances
Wednesday and Wednesday night, possible high winds through Guadalupe
Pass Wednesday night, and lastly, how long will this next arctic
airmass reside over the region?  Currently, the last vestiges of the
mentioned arctic airmass appear to be on the way out of the area as
surface pressure falls continue to mount ahead of a surface trough
developing south through eastern New Mexico early this morning.  Low
level moisture is beginning to spread back into the region on modest
southeasterly low level winds with fairly widespread fog according
to observations around the region.  Since cloud cover is pretty
thick, think the instance of dense fog, that is 1/4 mile or less
visibility, will not be widespread over the area, so will forego
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory, for now.  Will utilize social
media for locations that may dip to very low visibility for the
time being.

An extensive fetch of mid and upper level moisture ahead of an ua
trough extending from south central Canada to northern Baja will
continue to spread over the region today, and with a shortwave
trough or two embedded, result in a few showers, but mainly over
west and northwestern parts of the area.  Despite the cloud cover,
and some precipitation chances, think we will finally realize some
milder temperatures areawide.  As the RRQ of a 170kt moves over the
region tonight, and another shortwave trough translates over the
region, we could see showers, if not a few thunderstorms overnight.
The resultant cloud cover, and increase in lower level moisture,
will likely keep low temperatures on the mild side tonight, but
unfortunately, this will not last as the next cold front will move
into the area Wednesday morning.

The said cold front will slice southwestward into the area Wednesday
morning, with a fairly stark drop in temperature behind it.  High
temperatures will occur early tomorrow over the northern Permian
Basin, with temperatures cooling back below normal all the way to
the Pecos River by Wednesday evening.  The latest models are all
over the place with the frontal timing, and since the mentioned ua
trough has not moved over the region yet, they are all over the
place with precipitation type behind the front too.  It does appear
the cold air deepens fairly rapidly behind the front.  Model
soundings, for what they`re worth, indicate a warm layer of air
around 775mb early on, but this erodes pretty quickly, especially
over the northern Permian Basin where surface temperatures drop to
freezing or below first.  Therefore, have opted to go with more of a
mix of sleet and snow than freezing rain.  The changeover looks to
occur during the day Wednesday, with mainly snow north of Interstate
20 by early evening.  The best moisture appears to be east of the
region by then, so expect snowfall amounts will be an inch or less.
Precipitation could change to sleet or snow south of Interstate 10
late tonight, but again, amounts do not appear to be great.  Will
highlight all of this in a Special Weather Statement since it
appears wintry precip amounts will not be great.  Temperatures will
begin to modify Thursday and Friday.  We`ll see how this pans out,
but there does appear to be one difference this go around, it looks
like we will have some sun as early as Thursday to aid the warmup.
Will keep the forecast dry through the extended as only a weak ua
trough is indicated west of the region during that time.  High
temperatures could be right around normal Sunday through next
Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

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http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 031737
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1137 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
All locations are showing improving conditions with VFR expected
by 19Z. There is a chance for a return of low clouds and fog
tonight but models are showing VFR so confidence not high enough
to introduce into the TAFs at this time. Another strong cold front
will arrive late in this TAF period or shortly thereafter.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS.  HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL A LITTLE EARLY.  UPDATED
PRODUCTS ON THERE WAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A complicated forecast today including, the good riddance of an
arctic airmass, fog this morning, rain chances today and tonight,
the arrival of the next arctic airmass, wintry precipitation chances
Wednesday and Wednesday night, possible high winds through Guadalupe
Pass Wednesday night, and lastly, how long will this next arctic
airmass reside over the region?  Currently, the last vestiges of the
mentioned arctic airmass appear to be on the way out of the area as
surface pressure falls continue to mount ahead of a surface trough
developing south through eastern New Mexico early this morning.  Low
level moisture is beginning to spread back into the region on modest
southeasterly low level winds with fairly widespread fog according
to observations around the region.  Since cloud cover is pretty
thick, think the instance of dense fog, that is 1/4 mile or less
visibility, will not be widespread over the area, so will forego
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory, for now.  Will utilize social
media for locations that may dip to very low visibility for the
time being.

An extensive fetch of mid and upper level moisture ahead of an ua
trough extending from south central Canada to northern Baja will
continue to spread over the region today, and with a shortwave
trough or two embedded, result in a few showers, but mainly over
west and northwestern parts of the area.  Despite the cloud cover,
and some precipitation chances, think we will finally realize some
milder temperatures areawide.  As the RRQ of a 170kt moves over the
region tonight, and another shortwave trough translates over the
region, we could see showers, if not a few thunderstorms overnight.
The resultant cloud cover, and increase in lower level moisture,
will likely keep low temperatures on the mild side tonight, but
unfortunately, this will not last as the next cold front will move
into the area Wednesday morning.

The said cold front will slice southwestward into the area Wednesday
morning, with a fairly stark drop in temperature behind it.  High
temperatures will occur early tomorrow over the northern Permian
Basin, with temperatures cooling back below normal all the way to
the Pecos River by Wednesday evening.  The latest models are all
over the place with the frontal timing, and since the mentioned ua
trough has not moved over the region yet, they are all over the
place with precipitation type behind the front too.  It does appear
the cold air deepens fairly rapidly behind the front.  Model
soundings, for what they`re worth, indicate a warm layer of air
around 775mb early on, but this erodes pretty quickly, especially
over the northern Permian Basin where surface temperatures drop to
freezing or below first.  Therefore, have opted to go with more of a
mix of sleet and snow than freezing rain.  The changeover looks to
occur during the day Wednesday, with mainly snow north of Interstate
20 by early evening.  The best moisture appears to be east of the
region by then, so expect snowfall amounts will be an inch or less.
Precipitation could change to sleet or snow south of Interstate 10
late tonight, but again, amounts do not appear to be great.  Will
highlight all of this in a Special Weather Statement since it
appears wintry precip amounts will not be great.  Temperatures will
begin to modify Thursday and Friday.  We`ll see how this pans out,
but there does appear to be one difference this go around, it looks
like we will have some sun as early as Thursday to aid the warmup.
Will keep the forecast dry through the extended as only a weak ua
trough is indicated west of the region during that time.  High
temperatures could be right around normal Sunday through next
Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

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http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 031737
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1137 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
All locations are showing improving conditions with VFR expected
by 19Z. There is a chance for a return of low clouds and fog
tonight but models are showing VFR so confidence not high enough
to introduce into the TAFs at this time. Another strong cold front
will arrive late in this TAF period or shortly thereafter.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS.  HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL A LITTLE EARLY.  UPDATED
PRODUCTS ON THERE WAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A complicated forecast today including, the good riddance of an
arctic airmass, fog this morning, rain chances today and tonight,
the arrival of the next arctic airmass, wintry precipitation chances
Wednesday and Wednesday night, possible high winds through Guadalupe
Pass Wednesday night, and lastly, how long will this next arctic
airmass reside over the region?  Currently, the last vestiges of the
mentioned arctic airmass appear to be on the way out of the area as
surface pressure falls continue to mount ahead of a surface trough
developing south through eastern New Mexico early this morning.  Low
level moisture is beginning to spread back into the region on modest
southeasterly low level winds with fairly widespread fog according
to observations around the region.  Since cloud cover is pretty
thick, think the instance of dense fog, that is 1/4 mile or less
visibility, will not be widespread over the area, so will forego
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory, for now.  Will utilize social
media for locations that may dip to very low visibility for the
time being.

An extensive fetch of mid and upper level moisture ahead of an ua
trough extending from south central Canada to northern Baja will
continue to spread over the region today, and with a shortwave
trough or two embedded, result in a few showers, but mainly over
west and northwestern parts of the area.  Despite the cloud cover,
and some precipitation chances, think we will finally realize some
milder temperatures areawide.  As the RRQ of a 170kt moves over the
region tonight, and another shortwave trough translates over the
region, we could see showers, if not a few thunderstorms overnight.
The resultant cloud cover, and increase in lower level moisture,
will likely keep low temperatures on the mild side tonight, but
unfortunately, this will not last as the next cold front will move
into the area Wednesday morning.

The said cold front will slice southwestward into the area Wednesday
morning, with a fairly stark drop in temperature behind it.  High
temperatures will occur early tomorrow over the northern Permian
Basin, with temperatures cooling back below normal all the way to
the Pecos River by Wednesday evening.  The latest models are all
over the place with the frontal timing, and since the mentioned ua
trough has not moved over the region yet, they are all over the
place with precipitation type behind the front too.  It does appear
the cold air deepens fairly rapidly behind the front.  Model
soundings, for what they`re worth, indicate a warm layer of air
around 775mb early on, but this erodes pretty quickly, especially
over the northern Permian Basin where surface temperatures drop to
freezing or below first.  Therefore, have opted to go with more of a
mix of sleet and snow than freezing rain.  The changeover looks to
occur during the day Wednesday, with mainly snow north of Interstate
20 by early evening.  The best moisture appears to be east of the
region by then, so expect snowfall amounts will be an inch or less.
Precipitation could change to sleet or snow south of Interstate 10
late tonight, but again, amounts do not appear to be great.  Will
highlight all of this in a Special Weather Statement since it
appears wintry precip amounts will not be great.  Temperatures will
begin to modify Thursday and Friday.  We`ll see how this pans out,
but there does appear to be one difference this go around, it looks
like we will have some sun as early as Thursday to aid the warmup.
Will keep the forecast dry through the extended as only a weak ua
trough is indicated west of the region during that time.  High
temperatures could be right around normal Sunday through next
Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 031737
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1137 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
All locations are showing improving conditions with VFR expected
by 19Z. There is a chance for a return of low clouds and fog
tonight but models are showing VFR so confidence not high enough
to introduce into the TAFs at this time. Another strong cold front
will arrive late in this TAF period or shortly thereafter.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS.  HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL A LITTLE EARLY.  UPDATED
PRODUCTS ON THERE WAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A complicated forecast today including, the good riddance of an
arctic airmass, fog this morning, rain chances today and tonight,
the arrival of the next arctic airmass, wintry precipitation chances
Wednesday and Wednesday night, possible high winds through Guadalupe
Pass Wednesday night, and lastly, how long will this next arctic
airmass reside over the region?  Currently, the last vestiges of the
mentioned arctic airmass appear to be on the way out of the area as
surface pressure falls continue to mount ahead of a surface trough
developing south through eastern New Mexico early this morning.  Low
level moisture is beginning to spread back into the region on modest
southeasterly low level winds with fairly widespread fog according
to observations around the region.  Since cloud cover is pretty
thick, think the instance of dense fog, that is 1/4 mile or less
visibility, will not be widespread over the area, so will forego
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory, for now.  Will utilize social
media for locations that may dip to very low visibility for the
time being.

An extensive fetch of mid and upper level moisture ahead of an ua
trough extending from south central Canada to northern Baja will
continue to spread over the region today, and with a shortwave
trough or two embedded, result in a few showers, but mainly over
west and northwestern parts of the area.  Despite the cloud cover,
and some precipitation chances, think we will finally realize some
milder temperatures areawide.  As the RRQ of a 170kt moves over the
region tonight, and another shortwave trough translates over the
region, we could see showers, if not a few thunderstorms overnight.
The resultant cloud cover, and increase in lower level moisture,
will likely keep low temperatures on the mild side tonight, but
unfortunately, this will not last as the next cold front will move
into the area Wednesday morning.

The said cold front will slice southwestward into the area Wednesday
morning, with a fairly stark drop in temperature behind it.  High
temperatures will occur early tomorrow over the northern Permian
Basin, with temperatures cooling back below normal all the way to
the Pecos River by Wednesday evening.  The latest models are all
over the place with the frontal timing, and since the mentioned ua
trough has not moved over the region yet, they are all over the
place with precipitation type behind the front too.  It does appear
the cold air deepens fairly rapidly behind the front.  Model
soundings, for what they`re worth, indicate a warm layer of air
around 775mb early on, but this erodes pretty quickly, especially
over the northern Permian Basin where surface temperatures drop to
freezing or below first.  Therefore, have opted to go with more of a
mix of sleet and snow than freezing rain.  The changeover looks to
occur during the day Wednesday, with mainly snow north of Interstate
20 by early evening.  The best moisture appears to be east of the
region by then, so expect snowfall amounts will be an inch or less.
Precipitation could change to sleet or snow south of Interstate 10
late tonight, but again, amounts do not appear to be great.  Will
highlight all of this in a Special Weather Statement since it
appears wintry precip amounts will not be great.  Temperatures will
begin to modify Thursday and Friday.  We`ll see how this pans out,
but there does appear to be one difference this go around, it looks
like we will have some sun as early as Thursday to aid the warmup.
Will keep the forecast dry through the extended as only a weak ua
trough is indicated west of the region during that time.  High
temperatures could be right around normal Sunday through next
Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 031737
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1137 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
All locations are showing improving conditions with VFR expected
by 19Z. There is a chance for a return of low clouds and fog
tonight but models are showing VFR so confidence not high enough
to introduce into the TAFs at this time. Another strong cold front
will arrive late in this TAF period or shortly thereafter.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS.  HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL A LITTLE EARLY.  UPDATED
PRODUCTS ON THERE WAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A complicated forecast today including, the good riddance of an
arctic airmass, fog this morning, rain chances today and tonight,
the arrival of the next arctic airmass, wintry precipitation chances
Wednesday and Wednesday night, possible high winds through Guadalupe
Pass Wednesday night, and lastly, how long will this next arctic
airmass reside over the region?  Currently, the last vestiges of the
mentioned arctic airmass appear to be on the way out of the area as
surface pressure falls continue to mount ahead of a surface trough
developing south through eastern New Mexico early this morning.  Low
level moisture is beginning to spread back into the region on modest
southeasterly low level winds with fairly widespread fog according
to observations around the region.  Since cloud cover is pretty
thick, think the instance of dense fog, that is 1/4 mile or less
visibility, will not be widespread over the area, so will forego
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory, for now.  Will utilize social
media for locations that may dip to very low visibility for the
time being.

An extensive fetch of mid and upper level moisture ahead of an ua
trough extending from south central Canada to northern Baja will
continue to spread over the region today, and with a shortwave
trough or two embedded, result in a few showers, but mainly over
west and northwestern parts of the area.  Despite the cloud cover,
and some precipitation chances, think we will finally realize some
milder temperatures areawide.  As the RRQ of a 170kt moves over the
region tonight, and another shortwave trough translates over the
region, we could see showers, if not a few thunderstorms overnight.
The resultant cloud cover, and increase in lower level moisture,
will likely keep low temperatures on the mild side tonight, but
unfortunately, this will not last as the next cold front will move
into the area Wednesday morning.

The said cold front will slice southwestward into the area Wednesday
morning, with a fairly stark drop in temperature behind it.  High
temperatures will occur early tomorrow over the northern Permian
Basin, with temperatures cooling back below normal all the way to
the Pecos River by Wednesday evening.  The latest models are all
over the place with the frontal timing, and since the mentioned ua
trough has not moved over the region yet, they are all over the
place with precipitation type behind the front too.  It does appear
the cold air deepens fairly rapidly behind the front.  Model
soundings, for what they`re worth, indicate a warm layer of air
around 775mb early on, but this erodes pretty quickly, especially
over the northern Permian Basin where surface temperatures drop to
freezing or below first.  Therefore, have opted to go with more of a
mix of sleet and snow than freezing rain.  The changeover looks to
occur during the day Wednesday, with mainly snow north of Interstate
20 by early evening.  The best moisture appears to be east of the
region by then, so expect snowfall amounts will be an inch or less.
Precipitation could change to sleet or snow south of Interstate 10
late tonight, but again, amounts do not appear to be great.  Will
highlight all of this in a Special Weather Statement since it
appears wintry precip amounts will not be great.  Temperatures will
begin to modify Thursday and Friday.  We`ll see how this pans out,
but there does appear to be one difference this go around, it looks
like we will have some sun as early as Thursday to aid the warmup.
Will keep the forecast dry through the extended as only a weak ua
trough is indicated west of the region during that time.  High
temperatures could be right around normal Sunday through next
Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 031737
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1137 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
All locations are showing improving conditions with VFR expected
by 19Z. There is a chance for a return of low clouds and fog
tonight but models are showing VFR so confidence not high enough
to introduce into the TAFs at this time. Another strong cold front
will arrive late in this TAF period or shortly thereafter.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

UPDATE...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS.  HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL A LITTLE EARLY.  UPDATED
PRODUCTS ON THERE WAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A complicated forecast today including, the good riddance of an
arctic airmass, fog this morning, rain chances today and tonight,
the arrival of the next arctic airmass, wintry precipitation chances
Wednesday and Wednesday night, possible high winds through Guadalupe
Pass Wednesday night, and lastly, how long will this next arctic
airmass reside over the region?  Currently, the last vestiges of the
mentioned arctic airmass appear to be on the way out of the area as
surface pressure falls continue to mount ahead of a surface trough
developing south through eastern New Mexico early this morning.  Low
level moisture is beginning to spread back into the region on modest
southeasterly low level winds with fairly widespread fog according
to observations around the region.  Since cloud cover is pretty
thick, think the instance of dense fog, that is 1/4 mile or less
visibility, will not be widespread over the area, so will forego
issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory, for now.  Will utilize social
media for locations that may dip to very low visibility for the
time being.

An extensive fetch of mid and upper level moisture ahead of an ua
trough extending from south central Canada to northern Baja will
continue to spread over the region today, and with a shortwave
trough or two embedded, result in a few showers, but mainly over
west and northwestern parts of the area.  Despite the cloud cover,
and some precipitation chances, think we will finally realize some
milder temperatures areawide.  As the RRQ of a 170kt moves over the
region tonight, and another shortwave trough translates over the
region, we could see showers, if not a few thunderstorms overnight.
The resultant cloud cover, and increase in lower level moisture,
will likely keep low temperatures on the mild side tonight, but
unfortunately, this will not last as the next cold front will move
into the area Wednesday morning.

The said cold front will slice southwestward into the area Wednesday
morning, with a fairly stark drop in temperature behind it.  High
temperatures will occur early tomorrow over the northern Permian
Basin, with temperatures cooling back below normal all the way to
the Pecos River by Wednesday evening.  The latest models are all
over the place with the frontal timing, and since the mentioned ua
trough has not moved over the region yet, they are all over the
place with precipitation type behind the front too.  It does appear
the cold air deepens fairly rapidly behind the front.  Model
soundings, for what they`re worth, indicate a warm layer of air
around 775mb early on, but this erodes pretty quickly, especially
over the northern Permian Basin where surface temperatures drop to
freezing or below first.  Therefore, have opted to go with more of a
mix of sleet and snow than freezing rain.  The changeover looks to
occur during the day Wednesday, with mainly snow north of Interstate
20 by early evening.  The best moisture appears to be east of the
region by then, so expect snowfall amounts will be an inch or less.
Precipitation could change to sleet or snow south of Interstate 10
late tonight, but again, amounts do not appear to be great.  Will
highlight all of this in a Special Weather Statement since it
appears wintry precip amounts will not be great.  Temperatures will
begin to modify Thursday and Friday.  We`ll see how this pans out,
but there does appear to be one difference this go around, it looks
like we will have some sun as early as Thursday to aid the warmup.
Will keep the forecast dry through the extended as only a weak ua
trough is indicated west of the region during that time.  High
temperatures could be right around normal Sunday through next
Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

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http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KBRO 031736 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1136 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SKY OBSCURATIONS AND CEILINGS ARE CHANGING RAPIDLY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ALONG THE COAST. AS
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OF
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. MODELS D