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000
FXUS64 KFWD 031202
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING IN
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

EARLY MORNING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY SOUTHWEST OF AREA TAF SITES. THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF AREA
TAF SITES TODAY. VFR CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH JUST CIRRUS TO
START OFF THE DAY...JOINED BY SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BASED AROUND 6 TO 7 KFT
AGL. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SOME DEEPER
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR STRATUS BUILDING NORTH OVER
AREA TAF SITES BEFORE SUNRISE ON MONDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
LIFT OR SCATTER OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY NOON ON MONDAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND THEN WE BEGIN A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
MOST OF THE REGION REACHING THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
AROUND. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH MOST OF THE
REGION IN THE LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
WARM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MOISTURE VALUES AND DEWPOINTS
RISE. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY WITH SOME
ADDED CLOUD COVER BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO...NEW MEXICO AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KEEPS THE BEST LIFT
WEST OF THE AREA BUT CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 60-70 POPS OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...TAPERING TO 30-40 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL
CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE-RICH AIR INTO THE AREA AND PWAT VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5-2 INCHES. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SUGGESTING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W IN AREAS WHERE LAKE LEVELS ARE STILL LOW
AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE WORSE. HOPEFULLY THESE AREAS CAN SEE
SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY
INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY LEAVING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS
WAKE OVER NORTH TEXAS. WE CONTINUE IN THIS PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS AND THEN EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WELL NORTH OF TEXAS. IN THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS FAIRLY PROMINENT AND MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. UNDER THIS PATTERN OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT
DOMINATED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE REGION WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OR DISTURBANCE BEYOND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED WITH A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR CONVECTION...AND
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ANTICIPATING MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DRYLINE MAY ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION EACH DAY BUT
IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. ANY
STORMS MOVING OFF THE DRYLINE MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR
CWA.

ISOLATED STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT
CAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP.
HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE LOWER END AND LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK AS WELL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT DUE TO
PWAT VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEEKEND...GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL STRENGTHEN AND IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET CONVECTION BY THEN.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  63  82  63  79 /   0   5  10  10  50
WACO, TX              82  62  82  63  81 /   5  10  10  10  50
PARIS, TX             81  59  81  61  80 /   0   5   5  10  40
DENTON, TX            82  62  81  62  78 /   0   5  10  10  50
MCKINNEY, TX          82  61  81  61  79 /   0   5   5  10  50
DALLAS, TX            84  63  84  64  79 /   0   5   5  10  50
TERRELL, TX           83  61  84  63  79 /   0   5   5  10  50
CORSICANA, TX         81  61  83  63  79 /   5   5  10  10  50
TEMPLE, TX            82  62  83  63  79 /   5  10  10  10  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  61  81  61  78 /   5  10  10  10  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 031202
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING IN
BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.

EARLY MORNING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY SOUTHWEST OF AREA TAF SITES. THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF AREA
TAF SITES TODAY. VFR CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH JUST CIRRUS TO
START OFF THE DAY...JOINED BY SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BASED AROUND 6 TO 7 KFT
AGL. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SOME DEEPER
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR STRATUS BUILDING NORTH OVER
AREA TAF SITES BEFORE SUNRISE ON MONDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
LIFT OR SCATTER OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY NOON ON MONDAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND THEN WE BEGIN A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
MOST OF THE REGION REACHING THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
AROUND. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH MOST OF THE
REGION IN THE LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
WARM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MOISTURE VALUES AND DEWPOINTS
RISE. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY WITH SOME
ADDED CLOUD COVER BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO...NEW MEXICO AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KEEPS THE BEST LIFT
WEST OF THE AREA BUT CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 60-70 POPS OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...TAPERING TO 30-40 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL
CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE-RICH AIR INTO THE AREA AND PWAT VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5-2 INCHES. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SUGGESTING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W IN AREAS WHERE LAKE LEVELS ARE STILL LOW
AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE WORSE. HOPEFULLY THESE AREAS CAN SEE
SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY
INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY LEAVING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS
WAKE OVER NORTH TEXAS. WE CONTINUE IN THIS PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS AND THEN EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WELL NORTH OF TEXAS. IN THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS FAIRLY PROMINENT AND MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. UNDER THIS PATTERN OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT
DOMINATED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE REGION WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OR DISTURBANCE BEYOND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED WITH A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR CONVECTION...AND
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ANTICIPATING MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DRYLINE MAY ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION EACH DAY BUT
IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. ANY
STORMS MOVING OFF THE DRYLINE MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR
CWA.

ISOLATED STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT
CAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP.
HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE LOWER END AND LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK AS WELL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT DUE TO
PWAT VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEEKEND...GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL STRENGTHEN AND IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET CONVECTION BY THEN.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  63  82  63  79 /   0   5  10  10  50
WACO, TX              82  62  82  63  81 /   5  10  10  10  50
PARIS, TX             81  59  81  61  80 /   0   5   5  10  40
DENTON, TX            82  62  81  62  78 /   0   5  10  10  50
MCKINNEY, TX          82  61  81  61  79 /   0   5   5  10  50
DALLAS, TX            84  63  84  64  79 /   0   5   5  10  50
TERRELL, TX           83  61  84  63  79 /   0   5   5  10  50
CORSICANA, TX         81  61  83  63  79 /   5   5  10  10  50
TEMPLE, TX            82  62  83  63  79 /   5  10  10  10  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  61  81  61  78 /   5  10  10  10  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLUB 031145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
645 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TRAVERSING OVER THE TERMINALS. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE A BIT
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT KLBB AND KPVW THIS
EVENING IF THEY CAN BE SUSTAINED AS THEY DRIFT EASTWARD.
CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT IS NOT TOO HIGH...THOUGH
ENOUGH TO CARRY A PROB30 GROUP. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN/EVNG
SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF KCDS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF SUB-VFR CIGS TOWARD OR SHORTLY
AT 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AFTER THE RECENT QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER THINGS WILL BEGIN TRENDING
TOWARD THE MORE ACTIVE SIDE...STARTING TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE IS BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT...ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO SHOULD BE WELL TIMED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE ADDED
LARGE SCALE LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE ONE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AS 08Z
DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S COMMON FURTHER EAST OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT
TO HOLD THE MOISTURE IN TODAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS DEEP MIXING
WILL LIKELY DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S NEAR THE TX/NM LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH THE FORCING
ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY CAP AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY
MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY WITH PROGGED MLCAPE CAPE
GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...SO THIS SHOULD
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. HOWEVER...A DEEP AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY STRONG CORES ALOFT. IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO LEND TO BRIEF BOUTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH THE
MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW-
LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND OVERALL RAIN
COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. STILL...IT DOES APPEAR COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SOLID CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES EASTWARD THIS EVENING IT WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO INCREASING INHIBITION. THE
INCREASING CIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION CAN
PROPAGATE AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF FOR THE
CONVECTION SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD FADE LATE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY...COMPLETE WITH STRATUS AND THE PROMISE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. TONIGHT WILL BE
MILD...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCALES.

LONG TERM...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LIKELY TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL.

DURING THIS PERIOD AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OUT OF SRN CA/NRN BAJA
NEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...MOVING PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL ITERATIONS. AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH...WE EXPECT A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LEAD WAVE TO PASS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS...AND PROVIDE THE INITIAL IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE SHOULD
ALREADY BE IN PLACE...WITH THE DRYLINE HAVING RETREATED INTO ERN
NM SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE MORNING STRATUS AND COOLER SURFACE
TEMPS...MONDAY/S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE-RATES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CINH TO ERODE QUICKLY AND T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY OCCUR PRETTY MUCH
ANYWHERE...WE/LL FOCUS ON THE WRN AND ESPECIALLY THE SW SPLNS
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER ASCENT AND
INSTABILITY. CAPES IN THIS AREA MAY REACH 2000 J/KG OR SO AND THIS
AREA WILL ALSO BE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF LUBBOCK. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DIMINISHING CAPE AND
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

T-STORMS MAY REALLY GET GOING ACROSS ERN NM AND THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCOMING TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SWATH OF
HIGH QPF NEAR THE STATE LINE AND EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS AT TIMES SHOWN A
SECOND HIGH QPF SIGNAL ACROSS THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN...WHICH IF IT
OCCURRED COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE MOISTURE HEADING
NEWD...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. WITHIN THIS SWATH...WE COULD SEE
THE TRAINING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL /2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS/ AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.

THE TUESDAY FORECAST WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION AND
EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/IES/. THE BEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL HAVE ONGOING
STORMS TUESDAY MORNING...CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LAY DOWN A BOUNDARY WHICH MAY BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR AREAS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE. MID-LVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS PROVIDED THERE IS ENOUGH
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE FIELDS LIKELY TO BE MESSY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH CAPE PRODUCTION...THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...THE DRYLINE MAY OR MAY NOT
MOVE BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY.

WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY LINGER SOMEWHERE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORMS IN THAT AREA. THU INTO
FRI...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH RELOADS WITH AN UPPER LOW DIGGING
SWD THROUGH THE GOLDEN STATE. ENERGETIC SW FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOSHING DRYLINE WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL T-STORMS CHANCES EACH DAY
FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY AS WELL. SMALL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT THERE APPEAR TO BE SUCH IMPULSES INCOMING
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK SHOULD BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  54  75  54 /  30  30  40  80
TULIA         86  57  75  56 /  20  30  20  70
PLAINVIEW     84  58  74  56 /  20  30  20  70
LEVELLAND     86  59  75  57 /  20  40  40  80
LUBBOCK       87  61  75  58 /  10  20  30  70
DENVER CITY   86  58  76  57 /  20  30  40  80
BROWNFIELD    85  59  76  58 /  20  30  40  70
CHILDRESS     86  61  79  60 /  10  10  20  50
SPUR          84  59  76  58 /   0  10  20  60
ASPERMONT     87  61  79  61 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23



000
FXUS64 KLUB 031145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
645 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TRAVERSING OVER THE TERMINALS. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE A BIT
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT KLBB AND KPVW THIS
EVENING IF THEY CAN BE SUSTAINED AS THEY DRIFT EASTWARD.
CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT IS NOT TOO HIGH...THOUGH
ENOUGH TO CARRY A PROB30 GROUP. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN/EVNG
SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF KCDS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF SUB-VFR CIGS TOWARD OR SHORTLY
AT 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AFTER THE RECENT QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER THINGS WILL BEGIN TRENDING
TOWARD THE MORE ACTIVE SIDE...STARTING TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE IS BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT...ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO SHOULD BE WELL TIMED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE ADDED
LARGE SCALE LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE ONE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AS 08Z
DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S COMMON FURTHER EAST OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT
TO HOLD THE MOISTURE IN TODAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS DEEP MIXING
WILL LIKELY DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S NEAR THE TX/NM LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH THE FORCING
ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY CAP AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY
MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY WITH PROGGED MLCAPE CAPE
GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...SO THIS SHOULD
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. HOWEVER...A DEEP AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY STRONG CORES ALOFT. IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO LEND TO BRIEF BOUTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH THE
MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW-
LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND OVERALL RAIN
COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. STILL...IT DOES APPEAR COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SOLID CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES EASTWARD THIS EVENING IT WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO INCREASING INHIBITION. THE
INCREASING CIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION CAN
PROPAGATE AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF FOR THE
CONVECTION SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD FADE LATE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY...COMPLETE WITH STRATUS AND THE PROMISE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. TONIGHT WILL BE
MILD...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCALES.

LONG TERM...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LIKELY TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL.

DURING THIS PERIOD AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OUT OF SRN CA/NRN BAJA
NEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...MOVING PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL ITERATIONS. AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH...WE EXPECT A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LEAD WAVE TO PASS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS...AND PROVIDE THE INITIAL IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE SHOULD
ALREADY BE IN PLACE...WITH THE DRYLINE HAVING RETREATED INTO ERN
NM SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE MORNING STRATUS AND COOLER SURFACE
TEMPS...MONDAY/S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE-RATES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CINH TO ERODE QUICKLY AND T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY OCCUR PRETTY MUCH
ANYWHERE...WE/LL FOCUS ON THE WRN AND ESPECIALLY THE SW SPLNS
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER ASCENT AND
INSTABILITY. CAPES IN THIS AREA MAY REACH 2000 J/KG OR SO AND THIS
AREA WILL ALSO BE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF LUBBOCK. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DIMINISHING CAPE AND
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

T-STORMS MAY REALLY GET GOING ACROSS ERN NM AND THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCOMING TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SWATH OF
HIGH QPF NEAR THE STATE LINE AND EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS AT TIMES SHOWN A
SECOND HIGH QPF SIGNAL ACROSS THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN...WHICH IF IT
OCCURRED COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE MOISTURE HEADING
NEWD...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. WITHIN THIS SWATH...WE COULD SEE
THE TRAINING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL /2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS/ AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.

THE TUESDAY FORECAST WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION AND
EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/IES/. THE BEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL HAVE ONGOING
STORMS TUESDAY MORNING...CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LAY DOWN A BOUNDARY WHICH MAY BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR AREAS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE. MID-LVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS PROVIDED THERE IS ENOUGH
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE FIELDS LIKELY TO BE MESSY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH CAPE PRODUCTION...THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...THE DRYLINE MAY OR MAY NOT
MOVE BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY.

WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY LINGER SOMEWHERE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORMS IN THAT AREA. THU INTO
FRI...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH RELOADS WITH AN UPPER LOW DIGGING
SWD THROUGH THE GOLDEN STATE. ENERGETIC SW FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOSHING DRYLINE WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL T-STORMS CHANCES EACH DAY
FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY AS WELL. SMALL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT THERE APPEAR TO BE SUCH IMPULSES INCOMING
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK SHOULD BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  54  75  54 /  30  30  40  80
TULIA         86  57  75  56 /  20  30  20  70
PLAINVIEW     84  58  74  56 /  20  30  20  70
LEVELLAND     86  59  75  57 /  20  40  40  80
LUBBOCK       87  61  75  58 /  10  20  30  70
DENVER CITY   86  58  76  57 /  20  30  40  80
BROWNFIELD    85  59  76  58 /  20  30  40  70
CHILDRESS     86  61  79  60 /  10  10  20  50
SPUR          84  59  76  58 /   0  10  20  60
ASPERMONT     87  61  79  61 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23




000
FXUS64 KLUB 031145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
645 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TRAVERSING OVER THE TERMINALS. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE A BIT
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT KLBB AND KPVW THIS
EVENING IF THEY CAN BE SUSTAINED AS THEY DRIFT EASTWARD.
CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT IS NOT TOO HIGH...THOUGH
ENOUGH TO CARRY A PROB30 GROUP. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN/EVNG
SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF KCDS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF SUB-VFR CIGS TOWARD OR SHORTLY
AT 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AFTER THE RECENT QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER THINGS WILL BEGIN TRENDING
TOWARD THE MORE ACTIVE SIDE...STARTING TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE IS BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT...ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO SHOULD BE WELL TIMED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE ADDED
LARGE SCALE LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE ONE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AS 08Z
DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S COMMON FURTHER EAST OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT
TO HOLD THE MOISTURE IN TODAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS DEEP MIXING
WILL LIKELY DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S NEAR THE TX/NM LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH THE FORCING
ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY CAP AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY
MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY WITH PROGGED MLCAPE CAPE
GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...SO THIS SHOULD
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. HOWEVER...A DEEP AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY STRONG CORES ALOFT. IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO LEND TO BRIEF BOUTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH THE
MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW-
LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND OVERALL RAIN
COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. STILL...IT DOES APPEAR COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SOLID CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES EASTWARD THIS EVENING IT WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO INCREASING INHIBITION. THE
INCREASING CIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION CAN
PROPAGATE AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF FOR THE
CONVECTION SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD FADE LATE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY...COMPLETE WITH STRATUS AND THE PROMISE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. TONIGHT WILL BE
MILD...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCALES.

LONG TERM...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LIKELY TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL.

DURING THIS PERIOD AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OUT OF SRN CA/NRN BAJA
NEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...MOVING PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL ITERATIONS. AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH...WE EXPECT A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LEAD WAVE TO PASS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS...AND PROVIDE THE INITIAL IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE SHOULD
ALREADY BE IN PLACE...WITH THE DRYLINE HAVING RETREATED INTO ERN
NM SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE MORNING STRATUS AND COOLER SURFACE
TEMPS...MONDAY/S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE-RATES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CINH TO ERODE QUICKLY AND T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY OCCUR PRETTY MUCH
ANYWHERE...WE/LL FOCUS ON THE WRN AND ESPECIALLY THE SW SPLNS
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER ASCENT AND
INSTABILITY. CAPES IN THIS AREA MAY REACH 2000 J/KG OR SO AND THIS
AREA WILL ALSO BE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF LUBBOCK. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DIMINISHING CAPE AND
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

T-STORMS MAY REALLY GET GOING ACROSS ERN NM AND THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCOMING TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SWATH OF
HIGH QPF NEAR THE STATE LINE AND EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS AT TIMES SHOWN A
SECOND HIGH QPF SIGNAL ACROSS THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN...WHICH IF IT
OCCURRED COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE MOISTURE HEADING
NEWD...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. WITHIN THIS SWATH...WE COULD SEE
THE TRAINING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL /2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS/ AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.

THE TUESDAY FORECAST WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION AND
EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/IES/. THE BEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL HAVE ONGOING
STORMS TUESDAY MORNING...CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LAY DOWN A BOUNDARY WHICH MAY BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR AREAS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE. MID-LVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS PROVIDED THERE IS ENOUGH
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE FIELDS LIKELY TO BE MESSY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH CAPE PRODUCTION...THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...THE DRYLINE MAY OR MAY NOT
MOVE BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY.

WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY LINGER SOMEWHERE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORMS IN THAT AREA. THU INTO
FRI...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH RELOADS WITH AN UPPER LOW DIGGING
SWD THROUGH THE GOLDEN STATE. ENERGETIC SW FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOSHING DRYLINE WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL T-STORMS CHANCES EACH DAY
FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY AS WELL. SMALL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT THERE APPEAR TO BE SUCH IMPULSES INCOMING
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK SHOULD BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  54  75  54 /  30  30  40  80
TULIA         86  57  75  56 /  20  30  20  70
PLAINVIEW     84  58  74  56 /  20  30  20  70
LEVELLAND     86  59  75  57 /  20  40  40  80
LUBBOCK       87  61  75  58 /  10  20  30  70
DENVER CITY   86  58  76  57 /  20  30  40  80
BROWNFIELD    85  59  76  58 /  20  30  40  70
CHILDRESS     86  61  79  60 /  10  10  20  50
SPUR          84  59  76  58 /   0  10  20  60
ASPERMONT     87  61  79  61 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23




000
FXUS64 KLUB 031145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
645 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TRAVERSING OVER THE TERMINALS. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE A BIT
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT KLBB AND KPVW THIS
EVENING IF THEY CAN BE SUSTAINED AS THEY DRIFT EASTWARD.
CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT IS NOT TOO HIGH...THOUGH
ENOUGH TO CARRY A PROB30 GROUP. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN/EVNG
SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF KCDS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF SUB-VFR CIGS TOWARD OR SHORTLY
AT 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AFTER THE RECENT QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER THINGS WILL BEGIN TRENDING
TOWARD THE MORE ACTIVE SIDE...STARTING TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE IS BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT...ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO SHOULD BE WELL TIMED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE ADDED
LARGE SCALE LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE ONE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AS 08Z
DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S COMMON FURTHER EAST OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT
TO HOLD THE MOISTURE IN TODAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS DEEP MIXING
WILL LIKELY DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S NEAR THE TX/NM LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH THE FORCING
ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY CAP AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY
MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY WITH PROGGED MLCAPE CAPE
GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...SO THIS SHOULD
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. HOWEVER...A DEEP AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY STRONG CORES ALOFT. IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO LEND TO BRIEF BOUTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH THE
MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW-
LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND OVERALL RAIN
COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. STILL...IT DOES APPEAR COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SOLID CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES EASTWARD THIS EVENING IT WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO INCREASING INHIBITION. THE
INCREASING CIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION CAN
PROPAGATE AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF FOR THE
CONVECTION SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD FADE LATE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY...COMPLETE WITH STRATUS AND THE PROMISE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. TONIGHT WILL BE
MILD...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCALES.

LONG TERM...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LIKELY TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL.

DURING THIS PERIOD AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OUT OF SRN CA/NRN BAJA
NEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...MOVING PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL ITERATIONS. AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH...WE EXPECT A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LEAD WAVE TO PASS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS...AND PROVIDE THE INITIAL IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE SHOULD
ALREADY BE IN PLACE...WITH THE DRYLINE HAVING RETREATED INTO ERN
NM SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE MORNING STRATUS AND COOLER SURFACE
TEMPS...MONDAY/S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE-RATES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CINH TO ERODE QUICKLY AND T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY OCCUR PRETTY MUCH
ANYWHERE...WE/LL FOCUS ON THE WRN AND ESPECIALLY THE SW SPLNS
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER ASCENT AND
INSTABILITY. CAPES IN THIS AREA MAY REACH 2000 J/KG OR SO AND THIS
AREA WILL ALSO BE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF LUBBOCK. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DIMINISHING CAPE AND
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

T-STORMS MAY REALLY GET GOING ACROSS ERN NM AND THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCOMING TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SWATH OF
HIGH QPF NEAR THE STATE LINE AND EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS AT TIMES SHOWN A
SECOND HIGH QPF SIGNAL ACROSS THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN...WHICH IF IT
OCCURRED COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE MOISTURE HEADING
NEWD...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. WITHIN THIS SWATH...WE COULD SEE
THE TRAINING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL /2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS/ AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.

THE TUESDAY FORECAST WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION AND
EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/IES/. THE BEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL HAVE ONGOING
STORMS TUESDAY MORNING...CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LAY DOWN A BOUNDARY WHICH MAY BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR AREAS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE. MID-LVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS PROVIDED THERE IS ENOUGH
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE FIELDS LIKELY TO BE MESSY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH CAPE PRODUCTION...THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...THE DRYLINE MAY OR MAY NOT
MOVE BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY.

WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY LINGER SOMEWHERE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORMS IN THAT AREA. THU INTO
FRI...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH RELOADS WITH AN UPPER LOW DIGGING
SWD THROUGH THE GOLDEN STATE. ENERGETIC SW FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOSHING DRYLINE WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL T-STORMS CHANCES EACH DAY
FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY AS WELL. SMALL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT THERE APPEAR TO BE SUCH IMPULSES INCOMING
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK SHOULD BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  54  75  54 /  30  30  40  80
TULIA         86  57  75  56 /  20  30  20  70
PLAINVIEW     84  58  74  56 /  20  30  20  70
LEVELLAND     86  59  75  57 /  20  40  40  80
LUBBOCK       87  61  75  58 /  10  20  30  70
DENVER CITY   86  58  76  57 /  20  30  40  80
BROWNFIELD    85  59  76  58 /  20  30  40  70
CHILDRESS     86  61  79  60 /  10  10  20  50
SPUR          84  59  76  58 /   0  10  20  60
ASPERMONT     87  61  79  61 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23




000
FXUS64 KLUB 031145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
645 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TRAVERSING OVER THE TERMINALS. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE A BIT
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT KLBB AND KPVW THIS
EVENING IF THEY CAN BE SUSTAINED AS THEY DRIFT EASTWARD.
CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT IS NOT TOO HIGH...THOUGH
ENOUGH TO CARRY A PROB30 GROUP. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN/EVNG
SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF KCDS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF SUB-VFR CIGS TOWARD OR SHORTLY
AT 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AFTER THE RECENT QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER THINGS WILL BEGIN TRENDING
TOWARD THE MORE ACTIVE SIDE...STARTING TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE IS BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT...ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO SHOULD BE WELL TIMED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE ADDED
LARGE SCALE LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE ONE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AS 08Z
DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S COMMON FURTHER EAST OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT
TO HOLD THE MOISTURE IN TODAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS DEEP MIXING
WILL LIKELY DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S NEAR THE TX/NM LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH THE FORCING
ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY CAP AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY
MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY WITH PROGGED MLCAPE CAPE
GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...SO THIS SHOULD
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. HOWEVER...A DEEP AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY STRONG CORES ALOFT. IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO LEND TO BRIEF BOUTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH THE
MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW-
LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND OVERALL RAIN
COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. STILL...IT DOES APPEAR COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SOLID CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES EASTWARD THIS EVENING IT WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO INCREASING INHIBITION. THE
INCREASING CIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION CAN
PROPAGATE AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF FOR THE
CONVECTION SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD FADE LATE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY...COMPLETE WITH STRATUS AND THE PROMISE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. TONIGHT WILL BE
MILD...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCALES.

LONG TERM...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LIKELY TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL.

DURING THIS PERIOD AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OUT OF SRN CA/NRN BAJA
NEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...MOVING PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL ITERATIONS. AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH...WE EXPECT A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LEAD WAVE TO PASS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS...AND PROVIDE THE INITIAL IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE SHOULD
ALREADY BE IN PLACE...WITH THE DRYLINE HAVING RETREATED INTO ERN
NM SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE MORNING STRATUS AND COOLER SURFACE
TEMPS...MONDAY/S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE-RATES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CINH TO ERODE QUICKLY AND T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY OCCUR PRETTY MUCH
ANYWHERE...WE/LL FOCUS ON THE WRN AND ESPECIALLY THE SW SPLNS
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER ASCENT AND
INSTABILITY. CAPES IN THIS AREA MAY REACH 2000 J/KG OR SO AND THIS
AREA WILL ALSO BE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF LUBBOCK. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DIMINISHING CAPE AND
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

T-STORMS MAY REALLY GET GOING ACROSS ERN NM AND THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCOMING TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SWATH OF
HIGH QPF NEAR THE STATE LINE AND EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS AT TIMES SHOWN A
SECOND HIGH QPF SIGNAL ACROSS THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN...WHICH IF IT
OCCURRED COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE MOISTURE HEADING
NEWD...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. WITHIN THIS SWATH...WE COULD SEE
THE TRAINING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL /2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS/ AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.

THE TUESDAY FORECAST WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION AND
EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/IES/. THE BEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL HAVE ONGOING
STORMS TUESDAY MORNING...CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LAY DOWN A BOUNDARY WHICH MAY BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR AREAS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE. MID-LVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS PROVIDED THERE IS ENOUGH
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE FIELDS LIKELY TO BE MESSY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH CAPE PRODUCTION...THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...THE DRYLINE MAY OR MAY NOT
MOVE BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY.

WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY LINGER SOMEWHERE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORMS IN THAT AREA. THU INTO
FRI...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH RELOADS WITH AN UPPER LOW DIGGING
SWD THROUGH THE GOLDEN STATE. ENERGETIC SW FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOSHING DRYLINE WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL T-STORMS CHANCES EACH DAY
FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY AS WELL. SMALL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT THERE APPEAR TO BE SUCH IMPULSES INCOMING
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK SHOULD BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  54  75  54 /  30  30  40  80
TULIA         86  57  75  56 /  20  30  20  70
PLAINVIEW     84  58  74  56 /  20  30  20  70
LEVELLAND     86  59  75  57 /  20  40  40  80
LUBBOCK       87  61  75  58 /  10  20  30  70
DENVER CITY   86  58  76  57 /  20  30  40  80
BROWNFIELD    85  59  76  58 /  20  30  40  70
CHILDRESS     86  61  79  60 /  10  10  20  50
SPUR          84  59  76  58 /   0  10  20  60
ASPERMONT     87  61  79  61 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23




000
FXUS64 KLUB 031145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
645 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS
TRAVERSING OVER THE TERMINALS. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE A BIT
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT KLBB AND KPVW THIS
EVENING IF THEY CAN BE SUSTAINED AS THEY DRIFT EASTWARD.
CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT IS NOT TOO HIGH...THOUGH
ENOUGH TO CARRY A PROB30 GROUP. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN/EVNG
SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF KCDS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF SUB-VFR CIGS TOWARD OR SHORTLY
AT 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AFTER THE RECENT QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER THINGS WILL BEGIN TRENDING
TOWARD THE MORE ACTIVE SIDE...STARTING TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE IS BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT...ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO SHOULD BE WELL TIMED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE ADDED
LARGE SCALE LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE ONE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AS 08Z
DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S COMMON FURTHER EAST OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT
TO HOLD THE MOISTURE IN TODAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS DEEP MIXING
WILL LIKELY DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S NEAR THE TX/NM LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH THE FORCING
ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY CAP AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY
MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY WITH PROGGED MLCAPE CAPE
GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...SO THIS SHOULD
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. HOWEVER...A DEEP AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY STRONG CORES ALOFT. IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO LEND TO BRIEF BOUTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH THE
MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW-
LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND OVERALL RAIN
COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. STILL...IT DOES APPEAR COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SOLID CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES EASTWARD THIS EVENING IT WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO INCREASING INHIBITION. THE
INCREASING CIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION CAN
PROPAGATE AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF FOR THE
CONVECTION SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD FADE LATE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY...COMPLETE WITH STRATUS AND THE PROMISE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. TONIGHT WILL BE
MILD...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCALES.

LONG TERM...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LIKELY TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL.

DURING THIS PERIOD AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OUT OF SRN CA/NRN BAJA
NEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...MOVING PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL ITERATIONS. AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH...WE EXPECT A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LEAD WAVE TO PASS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS...AND PROVIDE THE INITIAL IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE SHOULD
ALREADY BE IN PLACE...WITH THE DRYLINE HAVING RETREATED INTO ERN
NM SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE MORNING STRATUS AND COOLER SURFACE
TEMPS...MONDAY/S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE-RATES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CINH TO ERODE QUICKLY AND T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY OCCUR PRETTY MUCH
ANYWHERE...WE/LL FOCUS ON THE WRN AND ESPECIALLY THE SW SPLNS
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER ASCENT AND
INSTABILITY. CAPES IN THIS AREA MAY REACH 2000 J/KG OR SO AND THIS
AREA WILL ALSO BE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF LUBBOCK. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DIMINISHING CAPE AND
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

T-STORMS MAY REALLY GET GOING ACROSS ERN NM AND THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCOMING TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SWATH OF
HIGH QPF NEAR THE STATE LINE AND EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS AT TIMES SHOWN A
SECOND HIGH QPF SIGNAL ACROSS THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN...WHICH IF IT
OCCURRED COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE MOISTURE HEADING
NEWD...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. WITHIN THIS SWATH...WE COULD SEE
THE TRAINING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL /2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS/ AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.

THE TUESDAY FORECAST WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION AND
EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/IES/. THE BEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL HAVE ONGOING
STORMS TUESDAY MORNING...CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LAY DOWN A BOUNDARY WHICH MAY BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR AREAS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE. MID-LVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS PROVIDED THERE IS ENOUGH
BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE FIELDS LIKELY TO BE MESSY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH CAPE PRODUCTION...THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...THE DRYLINE MAY OR MAY NOT
MOVE BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY.

WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY LINGER SOMEWHERE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORMS IN THAT AREA. THU INTO
FRI...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH RELOADS WITH AN UPPER LOW DIGGING
SWD THROUGH THE GOLDEN STATE. ENERGETIC SW FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOSHING DRYLINE WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL T-STORMS CHANCES EACH DAY
FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY AS WELL. SMALL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT THERE APPEAR TO BE SUCH IMPULSES INCOMING
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK SHOULD BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  54  75  54 /  30  30  40  80
TULIA         86  57  75  56 /  20  30  20  70
PLAINVIEW     84  58  74  56 /  20  30  20  70
LEVELLAND     86  59  75  57 /  20  40  40  80
LUBBOCK       87  61  75  58 /  10  20  30  70
DENVER CITY   86  58  76  57 /  20  30  40  80
BROWNFIELD    85  59  76  58 /  20  30  40  70
CHILDRESS     86  61  79  60 /  10  10  20  50
SPUR          84  59  76  58 /   0  10  20  60
ASPERMONT     87  61  79  61 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 031143
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW A FEW CUMULUS OVER
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...GENERALLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. NONE OF THE TAF
SITES HAVE REPORTED FOG BUT HAVE SEEN SOME FLEETING LIGHT FOG AT A
FEW OF THE AWOS SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX UP
INTO A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY NOT FALL TO CALM AS THEY DID EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO CREEP UP...CANT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS MONDAY MORNING BUT STILL NOT
THINKING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM INLAND SO MAY
GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  64  83  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  83  67  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 031143
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW A FEW CUMULUS OVER
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...GENERALLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. NONE OF THE TAF
SITES HAVE REPORTED FOG BUT HAVE SEEN SOME FLEETING LIGHT FOG AT A
FEW OF THE AWOS SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX UP
INTO A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY NOT FALL TO CALM AS THEY DID EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO CREEP UP...CANT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS MONDAY MORNING BUT STILL NOT
THINKING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM INLAND SO MAY
GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  64  83  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  83  67  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 031143
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW A FEW CUMULUS OVER
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...GENERALLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. NONE OF THE TAF
SITES HAVE REPORTED FOG BUT HAVE SEEN SOME FLEETING LIGHT FOG AT A
FEW OF THE AWOS SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX UP
INTO A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY NOT FALL TO CALM AS THEY DID EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO CREEP UP...CANT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS MONDAY MORNING BUT STILL NOT
THINKING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM INLAND SO MAY
GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  64  83  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  83  67  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 031143
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW A FEW CUMULUS OVER
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS...GENERALLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. NONE OF THE TAF
SITES HAVE REPORTED FOG BUT HAVE SEEN SOME FLEETING LIGHT FOG AT A
FEW OF THE AWOS SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX UP
INTO A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST BUT WILL LIKELY NOT FALL TO CALM AS THEY DID EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO CREEP UP...CANT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS MONDAY MORNING BUT STILL NOT
THINKING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM INLAND SO MAY
GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

39

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  64  83  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  83  67  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBRO 031132 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
632 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD DECK HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED...AS A
HIGHER CLOUD DECK HAS INSULATED THE LOWER LAYERS. CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN DURING THE DAY...BUT THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP DAYTIME CU IN THE REGION. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...H5 RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE
WEST AND WSW...BRINGING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE. AT THE
SFC...INCREASING GRADIENT BETWEEN NE GULF RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ACROSS KANSAS WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE
REGION...HELPING TO REINTRODUCE MORE SFC MOISTURE. MOISTURE
ALREADY STARTING TO RETURN...AS SEEN ON PW IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. PW VALUES WILL
REACH 1.5 INCHES BY DAWN MONDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OUT
WEST.

LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH NORTH AMERICA SPLIT FLOW. TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW TRACKING INTO OR NEAR
THE SW DESERTS AND SLOWLY WORKING THEIR WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW
TO TRACK OVER THE SIERRA MADRE WEST OF THE CWA FIRING OFF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST AND HOW MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
LOWER WITH THE POPS AND HAS CONCENTRATED THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WPC GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS THE
MOST QPF IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE
COASTAL STRIP SEEING LITTLE TO NO RAIN DURING THE DAYS 3 TO 7
PERIOD. PREVIOUS AND LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND IN THIS
DIRECTION HOWEVER INDICATING A MORE DIURNAL...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...TIMING FOR THE CONVECTION. NO FAVORABLE BOUNDARY IS SEEN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO NO FOCUS FOR ANYTHING MORE THEN 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF POPS ON ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON/EVENING. PWATS
INCREASE OVER 1.8 INCHES SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT CAPES HOWEVER THE
TYPICAL LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE AS 85H TEMPS
WARM UP WITH THE W-SW FLOW. SPC MAINTAINS ANY THREAT WELL WEST OF
THE CWA WHICH VERIFIES THIS CONDITIONAL STABILITY.

OVERALL, LOOKING FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEW POINTS RISE WITH A
PERSISTENT SE-S FLOW AS LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TYPICAL DIURNAL BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS TO COMMENCE AS MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE THE BIGGEST INCREASE WITH AVERAGES CLIMBING
BACK UPWARDS TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAXIMUMS ALSO ON THE
INCREASE BUT NOT AS EXTREME WITH NEAR EARLY MAY NORMALS.

MARINE.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO BRING INCREASED SEAS...STARTING AROUND 3 FEET
TODAY AND 4 FEET TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

 /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO MARGINALLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF COMBINES WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS WITH CONDITIONS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TUESDAY AND REMAINING MARGINALLY HIGH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64



000
FXUS64 KBRO 031132 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
632 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD DECK HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED...AS A
HIGHER CLOUD DECK HAS INSULATED THE LOWER LAYERS. CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN DURING THE DAY...BUT THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP DAYTIME CU IN THE REGION. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...H5 RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE
WEST AND WSW...BRINGING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE. AT THE
SFC...INCREASING GRADIENT BETWEEN NE GULF RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ACROSS KANSAS WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE
REGION...HELPING TO REINTRODUCE MORE SFC MOISTURE. MOISTURE
ALREADY STARTING TO RETURN...AS SEEN ON PW IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. PW VALUES WILL
REACH 1.5 INCHES BY DAWN MONDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OUT
WEST.

LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH NORTH AMERICA SPLIT FLOW. TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW TRACKING INTO OR NEAR
THE SW DESERTS AND SLOWLY WORKING THEIR WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW
TO TRACK OVER THE SIERRA MADRE WEST OF THE CWA FIRING OFF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST AND HOW MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
LOWER WITH THE POPS AND HAS CONCENTRATED THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WPC GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS THE
MOST QPF IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE
COASTAL STRIP SEEING LITTLE TO NO RAIN DURING THE DAYS 3 TO 7
PERIOD. PREVIOUS AND LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND IN THIS
DIRECTION HOWEVER INDICATING A MORE DIURNAL...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...TIMING FOR THE CONVECTION. NO FAVORABLE BOUNDARY IS SEEN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO NO FOCUS FOR ANYTHING MORE THEN 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF POPS ON ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON/EVENING. PWATS
INCREASE OVER 1.8 INCHES SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT CAPES HOWEVER THE
TYPICAL LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE AS 85H TEMPS
WARM UP WITH THE W-SW FLOW. SPC MAINTAINS ANY THREAT WELL WEST OF
THE CWA WHICH VERIFIES THIS CONDITIONAL STABILITY.

OVERALL, LOOKING FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEW POINTS RISE WITH A
PERSISTENT SE-S FLOW AS LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TYPICAL DIURNAL BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS TO COMMENCE AS MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE THE BIGGEST INCREASE WITH AVERAGES CLIMBING
BACK UPWARDS TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAXIMUMS ALSO ON THE
INCREASE BUT NOT AS EXTREME WITH NEAR EARLY MAY NORMALS.

MARINE.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO BRING INCREASED SEAS...STARTING AROUND 3 FEET
TODAY AND 4 FEET TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

 /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO MARGINALLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF COMBINES WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS WITH CONDITIONS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TUESDAY AND REMAINING MARGINALLY HIGH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 031132 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
632 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD DECK HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED...AS A
HIGHER CLOUD DECK HAS INSULATED THE LOWER LAYERS. CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN DURING THE DAY...BUT THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP DAYTIME CU IN THE REGION. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...H5 RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE
WEST AND WSW...BRINGING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE. AT THE
SFC...INCREASING GRADIENT BETWEEN NE GULF RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ACROSS KANSAS WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE
REGION...HELPING TO REINTRODUCE MORE SFC MOISTURE. MOISTURE
ALREADY STARTING TO RETURN...AS SEEN ON PW IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. PW VALUES WILL
REACH 1.5 INCHES BY DAWN MONDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OUT
WEST.

LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH NORTH AMERICA SPLIT FLOW. TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW TRACKING INTO OR NEAR
THE SW DESERTS AND SLOWLY WORKING THEIR WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW
TO TRACK OVER THE SIERRA MADRE WEST OF THE CWA FIRING OFF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST AND HOW MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
LOWER WITH THE POPS AND HAS CONCENTRATED THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WPC GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS THE
MOST QPF IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE
COASTAL STRIP SEEING LITTLE TO NO RAIN DURING THE DAYS 3 TO 7
PERIOD. PREVIOUS AND LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND IN THIS
DIRECTION HOWEVER INDICATING A MORE DIURNAL...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...TIMING FOR THE CONVECTION. NO FAVORABLE BOUNDARY IS SEEN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO NO FOCUS FOR ANYTHING MORE THEN 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF POPS ON ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON/EVENING. PWATS
INCREASE OVER 1.8 INCHES SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT CAPES HOWEVER THE
TYPICAL LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE AS 85H TEMPS
WARM UP WITH THE W-SW FLOW. SPC MAINTAINS ANY THREAT WELL WEST OF
THE CWA WHICH VERIFIES THIS CONDITIONAL STABILITY.

OVERALL, LOOKING FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEW POINTS RISE WITH A
PERSISTENT SE-S FLOW AS LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TYPICAL DIURNAL BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS TO COMMENCE AS MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE THE BIGGEST INCREASE WITH AVERAGES CLIMBING
BACK UPWARDS TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAXIMUMS ALSO ON THE
INCREASE BUT NOT AS EXTREME WITH NEAR EARLY MAY NORMALS.

MARINE.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO BRING INCREASED SEAS...STARTING AROUND 3 FEET
TODAY AND 4 FEET TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

 /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO MARGINALLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF COMBINES WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS WITH CONDITIONS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TUESDAY AND REMAINING MARGINALLY HIGH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64



000
FXUS64 KBRO 031132 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
632 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD DECK HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED...AS A
HIGHER CLOUD DECK HAS INSULATED THE LOWER LAYERS. CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN DURING THE DAY...BUT THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP DAYTIME CU IN THE REGION. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...H5 RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE
WEST AND WSW...BRINGING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE. AT THE
SFC...INCREASING GRADIENT BETWEEN NE GULF RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ACROSS KANSAS WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE
REGION...HELPING TO REINTRODUCE MORE SFC MOISTURE. MOISTURE
ALREADY STARTING TO RETURN...AS SEEN ON PW IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. PW VALUES WILL
REACH 1.5 INCHES BY DAWN MONDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OUT
WEST.

LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH NORTH AMERICA SPLIT FLOW. TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW TRACKING INTO OR NEAR
THE SW DESERTS AND SLOWLY WORKING THEIR WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW
TO TRACK OVER THE SIERRA MADRE WEST OF THE CWA FIRING OFF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST AND HOW MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
LOWER WITH THE POPS AND HAS CONCENTRATED THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WPC GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS THE
MOST QPF IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE
COASTAL STRIP SEEING LITTLE TO NO RAIN DURING THE DAYS 3 TO 7
PERIOD. PREVIOUS AND LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND IN THIS
DIRECTION HOWEVER INDICATING A MORE DIURNAL...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...TIMING FOR THE CONVECTION. NO FAVORABLE BOUNDARY IS SEEN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO NO FOCUS FOR ANYTHING MORE THEN 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF POPS ON ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON/EVENING. PWATS
INCREASE OVER 1.8 INCHES SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT CAPES HOWEVER THE
TYPICAL LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE AS 85H TEMPS
WARM UP WITH THE W-SW FLOW. SPC MAINTAINS ANY THREAT WELL WEST OF
THE CWA WHICH VERIFIES THIS CONDITIONAL STABILITY.

OVERALL, LOOKING FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEW POINTS RISE WITH A
PERSISTENT SE-S FLOW AS LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TYPICAL DIURNAL BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS TO COMMENCE AS MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE THE BIGGEST INCREASE WITH AVERAGES CLIMBING
BACK UPWARDS TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAXIMUMS ALSO ON THE
INCREASE BUT NOT AS EXTREME WITH NEAR EARLY MAY NORMALS.

MARINE.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO BRING INCREASED SEAS...STARTING AROUND 3 FEET
TODAY AND 4 FEET TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

 /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO MARGINALLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF COMBINES WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS WITH CONDITIONS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TUESDAY AND REMAINING MARGINALLY HIGH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/64



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMAF 031130
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is possible -TSRA
affecting terminals today. Could see some convection develop near
the higher terrain regions later this afternoon then move east into
the adjacent plains. Thinking this activity will be isolated in
nature and confidence in specific location/timing remains too low
attm to mention in current TAF. Will continue to monitor through the
day and make adjustments if/when needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will persist with gusty SE winds expected through sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge over the area slowly slides east today as an upper
trough moves ashore the CA coast.  This trough will bring a chance
of the storms to the region as it moves east... passing over the 4
corners region early Tuesday and Rockies early Wednesday.  As it
moves off to the NE a stronger low over the Pacific NW will dig down
the coast.  This will keep the region unstable through the week and
keep low chances of storms in the forecast.

Will have another warm day today with highs near normal and
increasing clouds.  Chance of afternoon/evening storms mainly for SE
NM... the Trans Pecos... down through the Davis Mountains.  To have
rain need decent moisture to work with.  Current dewpts in the 30s
and 40s... this needs to significantly increase before have
potential for heavy rain.  Latest model guidance shows dewpts climb
into the low 60s Monday.

Not expecting much in the way of severe wx today but cant completely
rule it out.  Moisture should be pushed back to the mountains and
when combined with daytime heating storm development over the higher
elevation possible.  In addition to orographic lift may have a weak
shortwave move over the area to help storm initiation... but dont see
much sign of a dryline today.  Have expanded pops westward this
afternoon as meso eta qpf develops considerable amounts of precip
back across the western CWA.

Severe wx potential increases on Monday as convergence along the
dryline increases and upper support improves.  Have added mention of
large hail and damaging wind to wx grid Monday afternoon along the
dryline.  Model sounding Monday afternoon/evening for FST shows good
turning of the wind with height and good speed shear so will
continue to mention isolated tornadoes.  For time being with leave
mention of severe in forecast for all of Monday night but expect
most severe storms will be in the 18z-06z time period.  Expect
sometime overnight severe potential should change over to heavy
rain. Model soundings for the Permian Basin show PW climb over 1
inch by 12z Monday and stay elevated through Tuesday.  Have heaviest
qpf over SE NM and Western Permian Basin... will be issuing a Flash
Flood Watch for this area for Monday night.  Later shifts may expand
this watch both in coverage and time.

The dryline will be farther east on Tuesday and the upper low will
be moving over the 4 corners region which is a favorable location
for severe wx across W TX and SE NM.  Will continue likely pops
Tuesday but not add mention of severe storms to the forecast yet but
continue to mention severe potential in HWO.  SWODY3 has the eastern
half of the CWA in a slight risk so Tuesday may turn out to be a
bigger severe day than Monday.  Low chance of storms continue
through the extended mainly for eastern CWA along/east of a daily
dryline.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

27

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 031130
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is possible -TSRA
affecting terminals today. Could see some convection develop near
the higher terrain regions later this afternoon then move east into
the adjacent plains. Thinking this activity will be isolated in
nature and confidence in specific location/timing remains too low
attm to mention in current TAF. Will continue to monitor through the
day and make adjustments if/when needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will persist with gusty SE winds expected through sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge over the area slowly slides east today as an upper
trough moves ashore the CA coast.  This trough will bring a chance
of the storms to the region as it moves east... passing over the 4
corners region early Tuesday and Rockies early Wednesday.  As it
moves off to the NE a stronger low over the Pacific NW will dig down
the coast.  This will keep the region unstable through the week and
keep low chances of storms in the forecast.

Will have another warm day today with highs near normal and
increasing clouds.  Chance of afternoon/evening storms mainly for SE
NM... the Trans Pecos... down through the Davis Mountains.  To have
rain need decent moisture to work with.  Current dewpts in the 30s
and 40s... this needs to significantly increase before have
potential for heavy rain.  Latest model guidance shows dewpts climb
into the low 60s Monday.

Not expecting much in the way of severe wx today but cant completely
rule it out.  Moisture should be pushed back to the mountains and
when combined with daytime heating storm development over the higher
elevation possible.  In addition to orographic lift may have a weak
shortwave move over the area to help storm initiation... but dont see
much sign of a dryline today.  Have expanded pops westward this
afternoon as meso eta qpf develops considerable amounts of precip
back across the western CWA.

Severe wx potential increases on Monday as convergence along the
dryline increases and upper support improves.  Have added mention of
large hail and damaging wind to wx grid Monday afternoon along the
dryline.  Model sounding Monday afternoon/evening for FST shows good
turning of the wind with height and good speed shear so will
continue to mention isolated tornadoes.  For time being with leave
mention of severe in forecast for all of Monday night but expect
most severe storms will be in the 18z-06z time period.  Expect
sometime overnight severe potential should change over to heavy
rain. Model soundings for the Permian Basin show PW climb over 1
inch by 12z Monday and stay elevated through Tuesday.  Have heaviest
qpf over SE NM and Western Permian Basin... will be issuing a Flash
Flood Watch for this area for Monday night.  Later shifts may expand
this watch both in coverage and time.

The dryline will be farther east on Tuesday and the upper low will
be moving over the 4 corners region which is a favorable location
for severe wx across W TX and SE NM.  Will continue likely pops
Tuesday but not add mention of severe storms to the forecast yet but
continue to mention severe potential in HWO.  SWODY3 has the eastern
half of the CWA in a slight risk so Tuesday may turn out to be a
bigger severe day than Monday.  Low chance of storms continue
through the extended mainly for eastern CWA along/east of a daily
dryline.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

27

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 031130
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is possible -TSRA
affecting terminals today. Could see some convection develop near
the higher terrain regions later this afternoon then move east into
the adjacent plains. Thinking this activity will be isolated in
nature and confidence in specific location/timing remains too low
attm to mention in current TAF. Will continue to monitor through the
day and make adjustments if/when needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will persist with gusty SE winds expected through sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge over the area slowly slides east today as an upper
trough moves ashore the CA coast.  This trough will bring a chance
of the storms to the region as it moves east... passing over the 4
corners region early Tuesday and Rockies early Wednesday.  As it
moves off to the NE a stronger low over the Pacific NW will dig down
the coast.  This will keep the region unstable through the week and
keep low chances of storms in the forecast.

Will have another warm day today with highs near normal and
increasing clouds.  Chance of afternoon/evening storms mainly for SE
NM... the Trans Pecos... down through the Davis Mountains.  To have
rain need decent moisture to work with.  Current dewpts in the 30s
and 40s... this needs to significantly increase before have
potential for heavy rain.  Latest model guidance shows dewpts climb
into the low 60s Monday.

Not expecting much in the way of severe wx today but cant completely
rule it out.  Moisture should be pushed back to the mountains and
when combined with daytime heating storm development over the higher
elevation possible.  In addition to orographic lift may have a weak
shortwave move over the area to help storm initiation... but dont see
much sign of a dryline today.  Have expanded pops westward this
afternoon as meso eta qpf develops considerable amounts of precip
back across the western CWA.

Severe wx potential increases on Monday as convergence along the
dryline increases and upper support improves.  Have added mention of
large hail and damaging wind to wx grid Monday afternoon along the
dryline.  Model sounding Monday afternoon/evening for FST shows good
turning of the wind with height and good speed shear so will
continue to mention isolated tornadoes.  For time being with leave
mention of severe in forecast for all of Monday night but expect
most severe storms will be in the 18z-06z time period.  Expect
sometime overnight severe potential should change over to heavy
rain. Model soundings for the Permian Basin show PW climb over 1
inch by 12z Monday and stay elevated through Tuesday.  Have heaviest
qpf over SE NM and Western Permian Basin... will be issuing a Flash
Flood Watch for this area for Monday night.  Later shifts may expand
this watch both in coverage and time.

The dryline will be farther east on Tuesday and the upper low will
be moving over the 4 corners region which is a favorable location
for severe wx across W TX and SE NM.  Will continue likely pops
Tuesday but not add mention of severe storms to the forecast yet but
continue to mention severe potential in HWO.  SWODY3 has the eastern
half of the CWA in a slight risk so Tuesday may turn out to be a
bigger severe day than Monday.  Low chance of storms continue
through the extended mainly for eastern CWA along/east of a daily
dryline.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

27

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  [top]

000
FXUS64 KCRP 031122 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE STRATO-CU WILL BE IN THE MID
LEVELS...ACCORDING TO THE FOG CHANNEL AND OBSERVATIONS GOING ON.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE WANING.
STILL WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS (TEMPO) AT KVCT BEFORE NOON AS MID LEVEL
DECK HAS NOT MOVED UP THAT FAR YET SO DAYTIME HEATING COULD BRING
THE LOWER CIGS FOR A SHORT TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SOME CIGS ABOVE 3000 FEET AND WINDS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND GUSTIER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LESS
WINDS AND GUSTS AFTER SUNSET. RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW WEAK ECHOES
NEAR THE COAST SO DID KEEP THE VCSH (ANY RAIN WILL BE VERY LIGHT
AND SHORT- LIVED). NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TIMING OF VCSH FOR
TODAY...WITH NO RAIN MENTIONED FOR TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP AT KVCT WELL BEFORE 04/06Z...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
AT KALI AND KLRD AFTER 04/06Z. WILL HOLD OFF ON MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KCRP (COULD BE MORE TEMPO BUT WILL NOT PUT A TEMPO IN AT THIS
TIME).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER
INLAND AREAS TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (10 POPS) TODAY. INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY CURTAIL
DEEPER CONVECTION...THUS ONLY SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION
WHICH WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF CWFA HAS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
GETTING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO DID INCLUDE 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA (DOES NOT INCLUDE
CITY OF LAREDO AT THIS TIME BUT JUST TO THE NORTH). FOR
MONDAY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS OVER INLAND AREAS (THE MORE WEST
THE BETTER MOISTURE)...SO WILL HAVE 20 POPS NEAR AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 BUT EVEN INCLUDE A 30 POP FOR THE NORTHERN
WEBB/WESTERN LA SALLE REGION. SOME UPPER SUPPORT WITH DIFFLUENT
REGION...BUT BEST SUB TROPICAL JET DYNAMICS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CWFA. MORE CLOUDS AND WIND TODAY...BUT WARMER BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SO WE MAY SEE A JUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
YESTERDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO
MUCH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO AM EXPECTING UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FOR
MONDAY MORNING. EVEN MORE CLOUDS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR BREEZY
CONDITIONS COASTAL REGIONS. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
HIGHS OBSERVED ON SATURDAY THAN ON SUNDAY...SO WENT CLOSER TO
THESE NUMBERS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SCA
TODAY...BUT WILL GET CLOSE TO SCEC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE.
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...COULD GET TO SCEC. CLOSER
AGAIN TO SCEC MORE AREAS ON MONDAY. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AT BEST
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTED TOO MUCH AS
MOISTURE AXIS IS WEST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEASONABLY STRONG LLJ
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. DURING THE DAY TUES A NEGATIVELY
TILTED H5 TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO SWING ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...THOUGH
THE CWA WILL BE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS.
COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUATION OF LLVL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND A SUBTROPICAL JET OVERHEAD /ALBEIT
WEAKENING/...SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. GFS /AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECMWF/ KEEPS
THE CWA ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS GREATER
INSTABILITY AND THUS...FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR
PRIMARILY INLAND LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUBTROPICAL JET
WEAKENS FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH ONLY MINOR VORT MAXES IN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW...ONLY LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS BACK
OVERHEAD AND IS PROG TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY ALSO PROG TO EXIST ACROSS THE CWA. COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL H5 VORT MAX...AND A
STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING...SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH CONVECTION THEN
PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL JET IS PROG TO REMAIN OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...OVERALL THERMAL
PROFILE MAY NEGATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO AN EXTENT. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTIVE CHANCES...MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED MOST MORNINGS WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAX/MIN TEMPS ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  69  83  70  85  /  10  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          82  67  83  67  83  /  10  10  10  10  40
LAREDO            89  72  86  71  87  /  10  10  20  10  30
ALICE             88  67  86  70  86  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          81  71  81  73  83  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           88  68  85  69  84  /  10  20  20  10  40
KINGSVILLE        86  67  84  69  85  /  10  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       80  71  80  73  83  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 031122 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE STRATO-CU WILL BE IN THE MID
LEVELS...ACCORDING TO THE FOG CHANNEL AND OBSERVATIONS GOING ON.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE WANING.
STILL WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS (TEMPO) AT KVCT BEFORE NOON AS MID LEVEL
DECK HAS NOT MOVED UP THAT FAR YET SO DAYTIME HEATING COULD BRING
THE LOWER CIGS FOR A SHORT TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SOME CIGS ABOVE 3000 FEET AND WINDS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND GUSTIER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LESS
WINDS AND GUSTS AFTER SUNSET. RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW WEAK ECHOES
NEAR THE COAST SO DID KEEP THE VCSH (ANY RAIN WILL BE VERY LIGHT
AND SHORT- LIVED). NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TIMING OF VCSH FOR
TODAY...WITH NO RAIN MENTIONED FOR TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP AT KVCT WELL BEFORE 04/06Z...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
AT KALI AND KLRD AFTER 04/06Z. WILL HOLD OFF ON MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KCRP (COULD BE MORE TEMPO BUT WILL NOT PUT A TEMPO IN AT THIS
TIME).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER
INLAND AREAS TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (10 POPS) TODAY. INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY CURTAIL
DEEPER CONVECTION...THUS ONLY SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION
WHICH WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF CWFA HAS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
GETTING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO DID INCLUDE 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA (DOES NOT INCLUDE
CITY OF LAREDO AT THIS TIME BUT JUST TO THE NORTH). FOR
MONDAY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS OVER INLAND AREAS (THE MORE WEST
THE BETTER MOISTURE)...SO WILL HAVE 20 POPS NEAR AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 BUT EVEN INCLUDE A 30 POP FOR THE NORTHERN
WEBB/WESTERN LA SALLE REGION. SOME UPPER SUPPORT WITH DIFFLUENT
REGION...BUT BEST SUB TROPICAL JET DYNAMICS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CWFA. MORE CLOUDS AND WIND TODAY...BUT WARMER BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SO WE MAY SEE A JUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
YESTERDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO
MUCH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO AM EXPECTING UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FOR
MONDAY MORNING. EVEN MORE CLOUDS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR BREEZY
CONDITIONS COASTAL REGIONS. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
HIGHS OBSERVED ON SATURDAY THAN ON SUNDAY...SO WENT CLOSER TO
THESE NUMBERS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SCA
TODAY...BUT WILL GET CLOSE TO SCEC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE.
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...COULD GET TO SCEC. CLOSER
AGAIN TO SCEC MORE AREAS ON MONDAY. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AT BEST
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTED TOO MUCH AS
MOISTURE AXIS IS WEST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEASONABLY STRONG LLJ
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. DURING THE DAY TUES A NEGATIVELY
TILTED H5 TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO SWING ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...THOUGH
THE CWA WILL BE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS.
COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUATION OF LLVL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND A SUBTROPICAL JET OVERHEAD /ALBEIT
WEAKENING/...SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. GFS /AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECMWF/ KEEPS
THE CWA ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS GREATER
INSTABILITY AND THUS...FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR
PRIMARILY INLAND LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUBTROPICAL JET
WEAKENS FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH ONLY MINOR VORT MAXES IN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW...ONLY LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS BACK
OVERHEAD AND IS PROG TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY ALSO PROG TO EXIST ACROSS THE CWA. COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL H5 VORT MAX...AND A
STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING...SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH CONVECTION THEN
PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL JET IS PROG TO REMAIN OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...OVERALL THERMAL
PROFILE MAY NEGATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO AN EXTENT. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTIVE CHANCES...MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED MOST MORNINGS WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAX/MIN TEMPS ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  69  83  70  85  /  10  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          82  67  83  67  83  /  10  10  10  10  40
LAREDO            89  72  86  71  87  /  10  10  20  10  30
ALICE             88  67  86  70  86  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          81  71  81  73  83  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           88  68  85  69  84  /  10  20  20  10  40
KINGSVILLE        86  67  84  69  85  /  10  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       80  71  80  73  83  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 031122 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE STRATO-CU WILL BE IN THE MID
LEVELS...ACCORDING TO THE FOG CHANNEL AND OBSERVATIONS GOING ON.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE WANING.
STILL WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS (TEMPO) AT KVCT BEFORE NOON AS MID LEVEL
DECK HAS NOT MOVED UP THAT FAR YET SO DAYTIME HEATING COULD BRING
THE LOWER CIGS FOR A SHORT TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SOME CIGS ABOVE 3000 FEET AND WINDS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND GUSTIER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LESS
WINDS AND GUSTS AFTER SUNSET. RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW WEAK ECHOES
NEAR THE COAST SO DID KEEP THE VCSH (ANY RAIN WILL BE VERY LIGHT
AND SHORT- LIVED). NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TIMING OF VCSH FOR
TODAY...WITH NO RAIN MENTIONED FOR TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP AT KVCT WELL BEFORE 04/06Z...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
AT KALI AND KLRD AFTER 04/06Z. WILL HOLD OFF ON MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KCRP (COULD BE MORE TEMPO BUT WILL NOT PUT A TEMPO IN AT THIS
TIME).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER
INLAND AREAS TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (10 POPS) TODAY. INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY CURTAIL
DEEPER CONVECTION...THUS ONLY SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION
WHICH WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF CWFA HAS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
GETTING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO DID INCLUDE 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA (DOES NOT INCLUDE
CITY OF LAREDO AT THIS TIME BUT JUST TO THE NORTH). FOR
MONDAY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS OVER INLAND AREAS (THE MORE WEST
THE BETTER MOISTURE)...SO WILL HAVE 20 POPS NEAR AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 BUT EVEN INCLUDE A 30 POP FOR THE NORTHERN
WEBB/WESTERN LA SALLE REGION. SOME UPPER SUPPORT WITH DIFFLUENT
REGION...BUT BEST SUB TROPICAL JET DYNAMICS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CWFA. MORE CLOUDS AND WIND TODAY...BUT WARMER BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SO WE MAY SEE A JUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
YESTERDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO
MUCH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO AM EXPECTING UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FOR
MONDAY MORNING. EVEN MORE CLOUDS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR BREEZY
CONDITIONS COASTAL REGIONS. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
HIGHS OBSERVED ON SATURDAY THAN ON SUNDAY...SO WENT CLOSER TO
THESE NUMBERS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SCA
TODAY...BUT WILL GET CLOSE TO SCEC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE.
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...COULD GET TO SCEC. CLOSER
AGAIN TO SCEC MORE AREAS ON MONDAY. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AT BEST
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTED TOO MUCH AS
MOISTURE AXIS IS WEST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEASONABLY STRONG LLJ
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. DURING THE DAY TUES A NEGATIVELY
TILTED H5 TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO SWING ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...THOUGH
THE CWA WILL BE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS.
COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUATION OF LLVL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND A SUBTROPICAL JET OVERHEAD /ALBEIT
WEAKENING/...SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. GFS /AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECMWF/ KEEPS
THE CWA ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS GREATER
INSTABILITY AND THUS...FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR
PRIMARILY INLAND LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUBTROPICAL JET
WEAKENS FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH ONLY MINOR VORT MAXES IN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW...ONLY LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS BACK
OVERHEAD AND IS PROG TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY ALSO PROG TO EXIST ACROSS THE CWA. COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL H5 VORT MAX...AND A
STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING...SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH CONVECTION THEN
PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL JET IS PROG TO REMAIN OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...OVERALL THERMAL
PROFILE MAY NEGATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO AN EXTENT. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTIVE CHANCES...MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED MOST MORNINGS WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAX/MIN TEMPS ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  69  83  70  85  /  10  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          82  67  83  67  83  /  10  10  10  10  40
LAREDO            89  72  86  71  87  /  10  10  20  10  30
ALICE             88  67  86  70  86  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          81  71  81  73  83  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           88  68  85  69  84  /  10  20  20  10  40
KINGSVILLE        86  67  84  69  85  /  10  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       80  71  80  73  83  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 031122 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE STRATO-CU WILL BE IN THE MID
LEVELS...ACCORDING TO THE FOG CHANNEL AND OBSERVATIONS GOING ON.
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE WANING.
STILL WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS (TEMPO) AT KVCT BEFORE NOON AS MID LEVEL
DECK HAS NOT MOVED UP THAT FAR YET SO DAYTIME HEATING COULD BRING
THE LOWER CIGS FOR A SHORT TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SOME CIGS ABOVE 3000 FEET AND WINDS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AND GUSTIER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LESS
WINDS AND GUSTS AFTER SUNSET. RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW WEAK ECHOES
NEAR THE COAST SO DID KEEP THE VCSH (ANY RAIN WILL BE VERY LIGHT
AND SHORT- LIVED). NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TIMING OF VCSH FOR
TODAY...WITH NO RAIN MENTIONED FOR TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP AT KVCT WELL BEFORE 04/06Z...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
AT KALI AND KLRD AFTER 04/06Z. WILL HOLD OFF ON MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KCRP (COULD BE MORE TEMPO BUT WILL NOT PUT A TEMPO IN AT THIS
TIME).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER
INLAND AREAS TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (10 POPS) TODAY. INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY CURTAIL
DEEPER CONVECTION...THUS ONLY SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION
WHICH WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF CWFA HAS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
GETTING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO DID INCLUDE 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA (DOES NOT INCLUDE
CITY OF LAREDO AT THIS TIME BUT JUST TO THE NORTH). FOR
MONDAY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS OVER INLAND AREAS (THE MORE WEST
THE BETTER MOISTURE)...SO WILL HAVE 20 POPS NEAR AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 BUT EVEN INCLUDE A 30 POP FOR THE NORTHERN
WEBB/WESTERN LA SALLE REGION. SOME UPPER SUPPORT WITH DIFFLUENT
REGION...BUT BEST SUB TROPICAL JET DYNAMICS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CWFA. MORE CLOUDS AND WIND TODAY...BUT WARMER BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SO WE MAY SEE A JUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
YESTERDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO
MUCH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO AM EXPECTING UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FOR
MONDAY MORNING. EVEN MORE CLOUDS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR BREEZY
CONDITIONS COASTAL REGIONS. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
HIGHS OBSERVED ON SATURDAY THAN ON SUNDAY...SO WENT CLOSER TO
THESE NUMBERS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SCA
TODAY...BUT WILL GET CLOSE TO SCEC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE.
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...COULD GET TO SCEC. CLOSER
AGAIN TO SCEC MORE AREAS ON MONDAY. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AT BEST
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTED TOO MUCH AS
MOISTURE AXIS IS WEST OF THE WATERS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEASONABLY STRONG LLJ
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. DURING THE DAY TUES A NEGATIVELY
TILTED H5 TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO SWING ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...THOUGH
THE CWA WILL BE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS.
COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUATION OF LLVL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND A SUBTROPICAL JET OVERHEAD /ALBEIT
WEAKENING/...SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. GFS /AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECMWF/ KEEPS
THE CWA ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS GREATER
INSTABILITY AND THUS...FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR
PRIMARILY INLAND LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUBTROPICAL JET
WEAKENS FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH ONLY MINOR VORT MAXES IN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW...ONLY LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS BACK
OVERHEAD AND IS PROG TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY ALSO PROG TO EXIST ACROSS THE CWA. COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL H5 VORT MAX...AND A
STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING...SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH CONVECTION THEN
PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL JET IS PROG TO REMAIN OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...OVERALL THERMAL
PROFILE MAY NEGATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO AN EXTENT. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTIVE CHANCES...MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED MOST MORNINGS WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAX/MIN TEMPS ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  69  83  70  85  /  10  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          82  67  83  67  83  /  10  10  10  10  40
LAREDO            89  72  86  71  87  /  10  10  20  10  30
ALICE             88  67  86  70  86  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          81  71  81  73  83  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           88  68  85  69  84  /  10  20  20  10  40
KINGSVILLE        86  67  84  69  85  /  10  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       80  71  80  73  83  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KAMA 031118 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
618 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. BUT WILL NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR...UNLESS A TAF SITE TAKES A DIRECT
HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM...THEN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR
WIDESPREAD POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER AS IT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. INITIAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO WITH CONVECTION BECOMING FAIRLY NUMEROUS
THERE BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. MEAN WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK RESULTING IN SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION.
FURTHER EAST ONTO THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES...DEEP MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BUT COULD
RESULT IN STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION.
CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. EVEN EARLY IN THE DAY SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PRESENT TO JUSTIFY AT LEAST LOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. 00Z RAOB FROM COASTAL TEXAS OFFICES STILL LACK DEEP MOISTURE
BUT LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED TPW SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ABOVE CLIMO PWAT VALUES INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY WITH STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED LARGE SCALE
FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
DETAILS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR
BUT THE PATTERN FITS THESE THREATS. ONE TO THREE INCHES SEEMS LIKELY.
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALBEIT STILL
RELATIVELY LOW AND MARGINAL...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER/STRONGER CONVECTION THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAY BE MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION THOUGH. SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SHOULD WEAKEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
TUESDAY PRECLUDING A NOTEWORTHY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHOUGH
IF POCKETS OF INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ONE OF THE FEW CHANGES THAT WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL HEATING.

AS UPPER LOW/OPENING WAVE DEPARTS...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY INFLUENCE THE AREA RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY DAY AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. A DEEP CLOSED
LOW WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY AND WITH
STRENGTHENING MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LEE TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST/STRENGTHEN. MULTIPLE DAYS OF DRYLINE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SMALL LEAD WAVES AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DELINEATE
WHEN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE. SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS WILL REFINE THESE DETAILS.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 031118 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
618 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. BUT WILL NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR...UNLESS A TAF SITE TAKES A DIRECT
HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM...THEN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR
WIDESPREAD POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER AS IT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. INITIAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO WITH CONVECTION BECOMING FAIRLY NUMEROUS
THERE BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. MEAN WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK RESULTING IN SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION.
FURTHER EAST ONTO THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES...DEEP MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BUT COULD
RESULT IN STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION.
CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. EVEN EARLY IN THE DAY SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PRESENT TO JUSTIFY AT LEAST LOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. 00Z RAOB FROM COASTAL TEXAS OFFICES STILL LACK DEEP MOISTURE
BUT LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED TPW SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ABOVE CLIMO PWAT VALUES INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY WITH STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED LARGE SCALE
FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
DETAILS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR
BUT THE PATTERN FITS THESE THREATS. ONE TO THREE INCHES SEEMS LIKELY.
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALBEIT STILL
RELATIVELY LOW AND MARGINAL...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER/STRONGER CONVECTION THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAY BE MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION THOUGH. SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SHOULD WEAKEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
TUESDAY PRECLUDING A NOTEWORTHY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHOUGH
IF POCKETS OF INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ONE OF THE FEW CHANGES THAT WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL HEATING.

AS UPPER LOW/OPENING WAVE DEPARTS...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY INFLUENCE THE AREA RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY DAY AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. A DEEP CLOSED
LOW WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY AND WITH
STRENGTHENING MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LEE TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST/STRENGTHEN. MULTIPLE DAYS OF DRYLINE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SMALL LEAD WAVES AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DELINEATE
WHEN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE. SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS WILL REFINE THESE DETAILS.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17





000
FXUS64 KAMA 031118 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
618 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. BUT WILL NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR...UNLESS A TAF SITE TAKES A DIRECT
HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM...THEN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR
WIDESPREAD POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER AS IT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. INITIAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO WITH CONVECTION BECOMING FAIRLY NUMEROUS
THERE BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. MEAN WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK RESULTING IN SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION.
FURTHER EAST ONTO THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES...DEEP MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BUT COULD
RESULT IN STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION.
CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. EVEN EARLY IN THE DAY SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PRESENT TO JUSTIFY AT LEAST LOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. 00Z RAOB FROM COASTAL TEXAS OFFICES STILL LACK DEEP MOISTURE
BUT LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED TPW SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ABOVE CLIMO PWAT VALUES INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY WITH STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED LARGE SCALE
FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
DETAILS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR
BUT THE PATTERN FITS THESE THREATS. ONE TO THREE INCHES SEEMS LIKELY.
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALBEIT STILL
RELATIVELY LOW AND MARGINAL...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER/STRONGER CONVECTION THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAY BE MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION THOUGH. SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SHOULD WEAKEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
TUESDAY PRECLUDING A NOTEWORTHY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHOUGH
IF POCKETS OF INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ONE OF THE FEW CHANGES THAT WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL HEATING.

AS UPPER LOW/OPENING WAVE DEPARTS...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY INFLUENCE THE AREA RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY DAY AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. A DEEP CLOSED
LOW WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY AND WITH
STRENGTHENING MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LEE TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST/STRENGTHEN. MULTIPLE DAYS OF DRYLINE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SMALL LEAD WAVES AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DELINEATE
WHEN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE. SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS WILL REFINE THESE DETAILS.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 031104
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
604 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
IR SATELLITE SHOWS MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE I35 TERMINALS BUT MOSTLY
STAYING OUT THAT DIRECTION. SOME LIGHT BR WAS OBSERVED AT KAUS BUT
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED FROM MID
MORNING UNTIL AROUND 03Z TONIGHT AS MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SKIES GENERALLY
REMAIN CLEAR WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT TEMPERATURE CONVERGE. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY AS
THE BETTER SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST.
WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE IN SHOWING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION. FOR NOW...WE/LL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-10 AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT GIVEN
FAIRLY LOW CAPES AND WIND SHEAR...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK JUST YET. WE DO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS INTACT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
ALL SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES (MAINLY 20-30%) GOING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  64  84  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  62  83  64  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  64  83  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  62  81  63  79 /  -   -   10  10  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  68  83  68  82 /  -   20  30  40  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  63  82  64  80 /  -   -   10  10  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             83  66  83  66  81 /  10  10  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  64  82  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  83  65  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  65  83  66  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  67  84  66  83 /  10  10  20  10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 031104
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
604 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
IR SATELLITE SHOWS MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE I35 TERMINALS BUT MOSTLY
STAYING OUT THAT DIRECTION. SOME LIGHT BR WAS OBSERVED AT KAUS BUT
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED FROM MID
MORNING UNTIL AROUND 03Z TONIGHT AS MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SKIES GENERALLY
REMAIN CLEAR WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT TEMPERATURE CONVERGE. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY AS
THE BETTER SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST.
WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE IN SHOWING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION. FOR NOW...WE/LL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-10 AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT GIVEN
FAIRLY LOW CAPES AND WIND SHEAR...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK JUST YET. WE DO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS INTACT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
ALL SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES (MAINLY 20-30%) GOING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  64  84  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  62  83  64  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  64  83  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  62  81  63  79 /  -   -   10  10  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  68  83  68  82 /  -   20  30  40  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  63  82  64  80 /  -   -   10  10  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             83  66  83  66  81 /  10  10  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  64  82  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  83  65  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  65  83  66  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  67  84  66  83 /  10  10  20  10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 031104
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
604 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
IR SATELLITE SHOWS MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE I35 TERMINALS BUT MOSTLY
STAYING OUT THAT DIRECTION. SOME LIGHT BR WAS OBSERVED AT KAUS BUT
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED FROM MID
MORNING UNTIL AROUND 03Z TONIGHT AS MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SKIES GENERALLY
REMAIN CLEAR WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT TEMPERATURE CONVERGE. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY AS
THE BETTER SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST.
WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE IN SHOWING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION. FOR NOW...WE/LL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-10 AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT GIVEN
FAIRLY LOW CAPES AND WIND SHEAR...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK JUST YET. WE DO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS INTACT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
ALL SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES (MAINLY 20-30%) GOING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  64  84  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  62  83  64  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  64  83  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  62  81  63  79 /  -   -   10  10  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  68  83  68  82 /  -   20  30  40  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  63  82  64  80 /  -   -   10  10  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             83  66  83  66  81 /  10  10  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  64  82  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  83  65  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  65  83  66  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  67  84  66  83 /  10  10  20  10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 031104
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
604 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
IR SATELLITE SHOWS MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE I35 TERMINALS BUT MOSTLY
STAYING OUT THAT DIRECTION. SOME LIGHT BR WAS OBSERVED AT KAUS BUT
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED FROM MID
MORNING UNTIL AROUND 03Z TONIGHT AS MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SKIES GENERALLY
REMAIN CLEAR WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT TEMPERATURE CONVERGE. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY AS
THE BETTER SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST.
WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE IN SHOWING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION. FOR NOW...WE/LL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-10 AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT GIVEN
FAIRLY LOW CAPES AND WIND SHEAR...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK JUST YET. WE DO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS INTACT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
ALL SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES (MAINLY 20-30%) GOING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  64  84  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  62  83  64  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  64  83  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  62  81  63  79 /  -   -   10  10  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  68  83  68  82 /  -   20  30  40  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  63  82  64  80 /  -   -   10  10  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             83  66  83  66  81 /  10  10  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  64  82  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  83  65  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  65  83  66  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  67  84  66  83 /  10  10  20  10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 031104
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
604 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
IR SATELLITE SHOWS MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE I35 TERMINALS BUT MOSTLY
STAYING OUT THAT DIRECTION. SOME LIGHT BR WAS OBSERVED AT KAUS BUT
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED FROM MID
MORNING UNTIL AROUND 03Z TONIGHT AS MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SKIES GENERALLY
REMAIN CLEAR WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT TEMPERATURE CONVERGE. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY AS
THE BETTER SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST.
WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE IN SHOWING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION. FOR NOW...WE/LL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-10 AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT GIVEN
FAIRLY LOW CAPES AND WIND SHEAR...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK JUST YET. WE DO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS INTACT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
ALL SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES (MAINLY 20-30%) GOING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  64  84  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  62  83  64  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  64  83  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  62  81  63  79 /  -   -   10  10  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  68  83  68  82 /  -   20  30  40  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  63  82  64  80 /  -   -   10  10  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             83  66  83  66  81 /  10  10  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  64  82  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  83  65  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  65  83  66  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  67  84  66  83 /  10  10  20  10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 031104
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
604 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
IR SATELLITE SHOWS MVFR CIGS WEST OF THE I35 TERMINALS BUT MOSTLY
STAYING OUT THAT DIRECTION. SOME LIGHT BR WAS OBSERVED AT KAUS BUT
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED FROM MID
MORNING UNTIL AROUND 03Z TONIGHT AS MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR ALL TERMINALS.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SKIES GENERALLY
REMAIN CLEAR WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT TEMPERATURE CONVERGE. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY AS
THE BETTER SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST.
WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE IN SHOWING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION. FOR NOW...WE/LL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-10 AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT GIVEN
FAIRLY LOW CAPES AND WIND SHEAR...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK JUST YET. WE DO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS INTACT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
ALL SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES (MAINLY 20-30%) GOING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  64  84  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  62  83  64  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  64  83  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  62  81  63  79 /  -   -   10  10  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  68  83  68  82 /  -   20  30  40  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  63  82  64  80 /  -   -   10  10  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             83  66  83  66  81 /  10  10  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  64  82  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  83  65  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  65  83  66  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  67  84  66  83 /  10  10  20  10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 031103
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
603 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Moisture return into West Central Texas will keep ceilings MVFR
at the southern terminals through the morning hours with ceilings
lifting to VFR around noon. By tomorrow morning, MVFR ceilings
are expected at all terminals with the southern terminal ceilings
degraded by late evening today and the northern terminals before
daybreak tomorrow. Southerly winds will gust 15-20 knots at all
terminals this morning continuing through mid-evening. Occasional
IFR ceilings will be possible tomorrow morning at the southern
terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...

(Today and Tonight)

Another nice day in store for West Central Texas under partly cloudy
skies and afternoon highs once again in the mid 80s. The upper ridge
that has been parked over the forecast area will begin to edge
eastward in response to Pacific upper trough moving over southern
California. As the upper level winds over the area begin to back to
the southwest, chances of convective activity will start to increase
over the area.

Have included a slight chance of thunderstorms over western Crockett
county for tonight as a strengthening LLJ over west Texas and
increasing low level moisture advection from the Gulf move over
higher terrain in the Big Bend area. With the dryline over west
Texas aiding in the initiation of convective activity, there is a
slight chance of residual thunderstorm activity surviving long
enough to make into western Crockett county tonight. Morning lows
Sunday will be in the lower 60s across all of West Central Texas
with clouds increasing over the area.

15

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances continue for all long term periods, and temperatures
remain relatively unremarkable. Models continue to develop a
closed low aloft over the western United States. With the resulting
southwest flow aloft over Texas, combined with good moisture fetch
from the Gulf, rain chances continue to look promising. The best
periods for rain continue to be Tuesday and Tuesday night, as the
upper trough moves into New Mexico, with a slightly negative tilt.
With May a peak severe weather month, the potential for severe
thunderstorms is a given for any thunderstorms which develop. The
Storm Prediction Center has our western counties in a slight risk
area on their day 3 outlook; this looks reasonable given support
aloft and dryline forcing near the surface. Although confidence in
identifying the exact timing of possible severe thunderstorms
remains low, given current model data, Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday evening look most likely. Also, confidence is fairly high
regarding the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop;
nevertheless, confidence as to how much of our 24 counties will
see this activity is lower. Thus, PoPs mainly in the chance
range, for all long term periods, look to be the best approach for
now. As for temperatures, highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to
the mid 80s look reasonable, with lows mainly in the lower to mid
60s.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  62  78  62  76 /   5  10  20  30  60
San Angelo  86  63  81  62  77 /   5  10  20  40  60
Junction  81  64  79  63  78 /   5  10  20  30  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 031103
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
603 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Moisture return into West Central Texas will keep ceilings MVFR
at the southern terminals through the morning hours with ceilings
lifting to VFR around noon. By tomorrow morning, MVFR ceilings
are expected at all terminals with the southern terminal ceilings
degraded by late evening today and the northern terminals before
daybreak tomorrow. Southerly winds will gust 15-20 knots at all
terminals this morning continuing through mid-evening. Occasional
IFR ceilings will be possible tomorrow morning at the southern
terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...

(Today and Tonight)

Another nice day in store for West Central Texas under partly cloudy
skies and afternoon highs once again in the mid 80s. The upper ridge
that has been parked over the forecast area will begin to edge
eastward in response to Pacific upper trough moving over southern
California. As the upper level winds over the area begin to back to
the southwest, chances of convective activity will start to increase
over the area.

Have included a slight chance of thunderstorms over western Crockett
county for tonight as a strengthening LLJ over west Texas and
increasing low level moisture advection from the Gulf move over
higher terrain in the Big Bend area. With the dryline over west
Texas aiding in the initiation of convective activity, there is a
slight chance of residual thunderstorm activity surviving long
enough to make into western Crockett county tonight. Morning lows
Sunday will be in the lower 60s across all of West Central Texas
with clouds increasing over the area.

15

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances continue for all long term periods, and temperatures
remain relatively unremarkable. Models continue to develop a
closed low aloft over the western United States. With the resulting
southwest flow aloft over Texas, combined with good moisture fetch
from the Gulf, rain chances continue to look promising. The best
periods for rain continue to be Tuesday and Tuesday night, as the
upper trough moves into New Mexico, with a slightly negative tilt.
With May a peak severe weather month, the potential for severe
thunderstorms is a given for any thunderstorms which develop. The
Storm Prediction Center has our western counties in a slight risk
area on their day 3 outlook; this looks reasonable given support
aloft and dryline forcing near the surface. Although confidence in
identifying the exact timing of possible severe thunderstorms
remains low, given current model data, Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday evening look most likely. Also, confidence is fairly high
regarding the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop;
nevertheless, confidence as to how much of our 24 counties will
see this activity is lower. Thus, PoPs mainly in the chance
range, for all long term periods, look to be the best approach for
now. As for temperatures, highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to
the mid 80s look reasonable, with lows mainly in the lower to mid
60s.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  62  78  62  76 /   5  10  20  30  60
San Angelo  86  63  81  62  77 /   5  10  20  40  60
Junction  81  64  79  63  78 /   5  10  20  30  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KAMA 031020
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
520 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR
WIDESPREAD POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER AS IT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. INITIAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO WITH CONVECTION BECOMING FAIRLY NUMEROUS
THERE BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. MEAN WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK RESULTING IN SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION.
FURTHER EAST ONTO THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES...DEEP MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BUT COULD
RESULT IN STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION.
CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. EVEN EARLY IN THE DAY SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PRESENT TO JUSTIFY AT LEAST LOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. 00Z RAOB FROM COASTAL TEXAS OFFICES STILL LACK DEEP MOISTURE
BUT LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED TPW SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ABOVE CLIMO PWAT VALUES INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY WITH STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED LARGE SCALE
FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
DETAILS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR
BUT THE PATTERN FITS THESE THREATS. ONE TO THREE INCHES SEEMS LIKELY.
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALBEIT STILL
RELATIVELY LOW AND MARGINAL...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER/STRONGER CONVECTION THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAY BE MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION THOUGH. SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SHOULD WEAKEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
TUESDAY PRECLUDING A NOTEWORTHY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHOUGH
IF POCKETS OF INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ONE OF THE FEW CHANGES THAT WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL HEATING.

AS UPPER LOW/OPENING WAVE DEPARTS...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY INFLUENCE THE AREA RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY DAY AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. A DEEP CLOSED
LOW WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY AND WITH
STRENGTHENING MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LEE TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST/STRENGTHEN. MULTIPLE DAYS OF DRYLINE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SMALL LEAD WAVES AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DELINEATE
WHEN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE. SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS WILL REFINE THESE DETAILS.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                84  59  75  57  64 /  20  30  50  80  80
BEAVER OK                  89  60  82  60  66 /  20  30  40  70  80
BOISE CITY OK              84  56  75  54  65 /  30  30  60  80  70
BORGER TX                  87  60  78  59  65 /  20  30  50  80  80
BOYS RANCH TX              87  59  78  58  66 /  30  40  60  80  80
CANYON TX                  85  59  75  57  65 /  20  30  60  80  80
CLARENDON TX               84  60  76  59  65 /  10  30  30  70  80
DALHART TX                 85  56  76  55  66 /  40  30  60  80  80
GUYMON OK                  87  58  79  58  65 /  30  30  60  80  80
HEREFORD TX                85  58  76  57  65 /  30  30  60  80  80
LIPSCOMB TX                85  60  79  60  65 /  20  30  30  70  80
PAMPA TX                   83  58  76  57  63 /  20  30  40  80  80
SHAMROCK TX                83  60  77  60  66 /  10  20  30  70  80
WELLINGTON TX              85  61  78  61  68 /   5  20  30  60  80

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 031020
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
520 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR
WIDESPREAD POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER AS IT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. INITIAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO WITH CONVECTION BECOMING FAIRLY NUMEROUS
THERE BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. MEAN WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK RESULTING IN SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION.
FURTHER EAST ONTO THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES...DEEP MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BUT COULD
RESULT IN STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION.
CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. EVEN EARLY IN THE DAY SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PRESENT TO JUSTIFY AT LEAST LOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. 00Z RAOB FROM COASTAL TEXAS OFFICES STILL LACK DEEP MOISTURE
BUT LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED TPW SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ABOVE CLIMO PWAT VALUES INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY WITH STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED LARGE SCALE
FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
DETAILS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR
BUT THE PATTERN FITS THESE THREATS. ONE TO THREE INCHES SEEMS LIKELY.
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALBEIT STILL
RELATIVELY LOW AND MARGINAL...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER/STRONGER CONVECTION THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAY BE MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION THOUGH. SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SHOULD WEAKEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
TUESDAY PRECLUDING A NOTEWORTHY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHOUGH
IF POCKETS OF INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ONE OF THE FEW CHANGES THAT WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL HEATING.

AS UPPER LOW/OPENING WAVE DEPARTS...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY INFLUENCE THE AREA RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY DAY AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. A DEEP CLOSED
LOW WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY AND WITH
STRENGTHENING MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LEE TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST/STRENGTHEN. MULTIPLE DAYS OF DRYLINE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SMALL LEAD WAVES AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DELINEATE
WHEN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE. SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS WILL REFINE THESE DETAILS.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                84  59  75  57  64 /  20  30  50  80  80
BEAVER OK                  89  60  82  60  66 /  20  30  40  70  80
BOISE CITY OK              84  56  75  54  65 /  30  30  60  80  70
BORGER TX                  87  60  78  59  65 /  20  30  50  80  80
BOYS RANCH TX              87  59  78  58  66 /  30  40  60  80  80
CANYON TX                  85  59  75  57  65 /  20  30  60  80  80
CLARENDON TX               84  60  76  59  65 /  10  30  30  70  80
DALHART TX                 85  56  76  55  66 /  40  30  60  80  80
GUYMON OK                  87  58  79  58  65 /  30  30  60  80  80
HEREFORD TX                85  58  76  57  65 /  30  30  60  80  80
LIPSCOMB TX                85  60  79  60  65 /  20  30  30  70  80
PAMPA TX                   83  58  76  57  63 /  20  30  40  80  80
SHAMROCK TX                83  60  77  60  66 /  10  20  30  70  80
WELLINGTON TX              85  61  78  61  68 /   5  20  30  60  80

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 031020
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
520 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CURRENT
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR
WIDESPREAD POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES AND WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER AS IT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. INITIAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO DIURNAL CYCLE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO WITH CONVECTION BECOMING FAIRLY NUMEROUS
THERE BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. MEAN WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK RESULTING IN SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION.
FURTHER EAST ONTO THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES...DEEP MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP.
DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BUT COULD
RESULT IN STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION.
CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES. EVEN EARLY IN THE DAY SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PRESENT TO JUSTIFY AT LEAST LOW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. 00Z RAOB FROM COASTAL TEXAS OFFICES STILL LACK DEEP MOISTURE
BUT LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED TPW SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ABOVE CLIMO PWAT VALUES INTO THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY WITH STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED LARGE SCALE
FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
DETAILS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR
BUT THE PATTERN FITS THESE THREATS. ONE TO THREE INCHES SEEMS LIKELY.
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY...ALBEIT STILL
RELATIVELY LOW AND MARGINAL...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER/STRONGER CONVECTION THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAY BE MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION THOUGH. SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SHOULD WEAKEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
TUESDAY PRECLUDING A NOTEWORTHY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHOUGH
IF POCKETS OF INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ONE OF THE FEW CHANGES THAT WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL HEATING.

AS UPPER LOW/OPENING WAVE DEPARTS...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
BRIEFLY INFLUENCE THE AREA RESULTING IN A MOSTLY DRY DAY AND
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. A DEEP CLOSED
LOW WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY AND WITH
STRENGTHENING MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LEE TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST/STRENGTHEN. MULTIPLE DAYS OF DRYLINE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR
FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF SMALL LEAD WAVES AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DELINEATE
WHEN THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE. SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS WILL REFINE THESE DETAILS.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                84  59  75  57  64 /  20  30  50  80  80
BEAVER OK                  89  60  82  60  66 /  20  30  40  70  80
BOISE CITY OK              84  56  75  54  65 /  30  30  60  80  70
BORGER TX                  87  60  78  59  65 /  20  30  50  80  80
BOYS RANCH TX              87  59  78  58  66 /  30  40  60  80  80
CANYON TX                  85  59  75  57  65 /  20  30  60  80  80
CLARENDON TX               84  60  76  59  65 /  10  30  30  70  80
DALHART TX                 85  56  76  55  66 /  40  30  60  80  80
GUYMON OK                  87  58  79  58  65 /  30  30  60  80  80
HEREFORD TX                85  58  76  57  65 /  30  30  60  80  80
LIPSCOMB TX                85  60  79  60  65 /  20  30  30  70  80
PAMPA TX                   83  58  76  57  63 /  20  30  40  80  80
SHAMROCK TX                83  60  77  60  66 /  10  20  30  70  80
WELLINGTON TX              85  61  78  61  68 /   5  20  30  60  80

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 031010
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
410 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE LEAVES THE AREA TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE BORDERLAND. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE RAIN WILL NOT
REACH THE GROUND AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE SHOWERS WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. ON TUESDAY DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE BROUGHT HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO MORE OF THE AREA THAN EXPECTED...WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THE
MAIN IMPACT SATURDAY EVENING. THERE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS MUCH
ACTIVITY LATER TODAY AS IMPULSE DEPARTS...WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND
FAR EAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTION. THEN ON
MONDAY DYNAMICS INCREASE THOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE WITH MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF RIO GRANDE
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. NOT MUCH RAIN EXPECTED...JUST A BUNCH OF
WIND BAGS THOUGH THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO THE MORE LIKELY YOU`LL
SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL OF ANY BENEFIT. IN FACT...IF YOU`RE
TRAVELING EAST OF OUR AREA MONDAY INTO THE PLAINS IT WILL BE
REALLY BUSY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER. MEANWHILE BOTH DAYS HERE WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER YET STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NORTH OF A SILVER
CITY TO ALAMOGORDO LINE AS DRIER AIR INVADES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. DRY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE BORDERLAND MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING EAST OF THE CWA.

JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
BACKS THE FLOW TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS ALLOWS THE
DRYLINE TO SLIP BACK FURTHER WEST. AN IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER POSSIBLE MOIST SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WOULD
RESULT IN A CLASSIC MAY SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. GETTING WAY AHEAD OF OURSELVES HERE...BUT IT IS MAY AFTER
ALL...WHICH HISTORICALLY IS THE TOP HAIL MONTH FOR EL PASO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/12Z-04/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN AFTR 20Z
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. AFT 18Z ISOLD HIGH BASE -TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE GILA WILDERNESS...NM BOOT HEEL AND
SACRAMENTO MTNS. LOW VISIBILITIES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BEGINNING TODAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
THEN MOVES MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS ALL FIRE
WEATHER ZONES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS...HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES AND COOLER HIGH TEMPS TO THE AREA. LATE TUESDAY
THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY WITH BREEZY
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

TODAY MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
LOWLANDS. IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS MIN RH VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 20S. MIN RH VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE TOMORROW
AND MONDAY. VENT RATES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  64  86  62  81 /   0  10  10  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           85  58  83  55  78 /   0  20  20  30  20
LAS CRUCES              85  54  83  52  77 /   0  10  20  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              86  57  83  55  77 /   0  10  20  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              65  45  62  42  56 /  20  20  30  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   83  54  81  51  75 /   0  10  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             77  49  74  44  67 /  20  10  20  30  20
DEMING                  85  52  83  49  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
LORDSBURG               83  51  81  47  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      87  63  85  61  80 /   0  10  10  20   0
DELL CITY               89  57  85  56  80 /  10  20  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            90  60  87  58  82 /   0  20  20  30   0
LOMA LINDA              82  59  80  57  74 /   0  10  20  30   0
FABENS                  88  59  86  57  81 /   0  10  10  20   0
SANTA TERESA            86  58  85  56  79 /   0  10  10  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          85  61  82  59  77 /   0  10  20  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           85  53  83  51  77 /   0  10  20  20  10
HATCH                   86  54  83  51  78 /   0  10  20  20  10
COLUMBUS                84  56  81  55  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
OROGRANDE               85  60  84  58  78 /   0  10  20  30   0
MAYHILL                 73  51  71  48  66 /  20  20  30  40  20
MESCALERO               74  49  71  45  65 /  20  20  30  40  20
TIMBERON                73  50  70  47  64 /  20  20  30  40  20
WINSTON                 76  46  72  43  68 /  20  20  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               81  51  79  47  74 /   0  10  20  20  20
SPACEPORT               85  51  82  49  77 /   0  10  20  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            75  47  73  43  66 /  20  10  30  30  20
HURLEY                  79  48  75  44  70 /   0  10  20  20  10
CLIFF                   82  49  80  44  74 /   0  10  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              79  43  77  38  70 /   0  10  20  20  20
FAYWOOD                 80  50  76  46  71 /   0   0  20  20  10
ANIMAS                  83  52  80  49  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
HACHITA                 83  50  81  48  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  50  80  47  76 /   0  10  10  10   0
CLOVERDALE              79  49  77  46  72 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 031010
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
410 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE LEAVES THE AREA TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE BORDERLAND. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE RAIN WILL NOT
REACH THE GROUND AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE SHOWERS WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. ON TUESDAY DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE BROUGHT HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO MORE OF THE AREA THAN EXPECTED...WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THE
MAIN IMPACT SATURDAY EVENING. THERE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS MUCH
ACTIVITY LATER TODAY AS IMPULSE DEPARTS...WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND
FAR EAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTION. THEN ON
MONDAY DYNAMICS INCREASE THOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE WITH MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF RIO GRANDE
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. NOT MUCH RAIN EXPECTED...JUST A BUNCH OF
WIND BAGS THOUGH THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO THE MORE LIKELY YOU`LL
SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL OF ANY BENEFIT. IN FACT...IF YOU`RE
TRAVELING EAST OF OUR AREA MONDAY INTO THE PLAINS IT WILL BE
REALLY BUSY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER. MEANWHILE BOTH DAYS HERE WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER YET STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NORTH OF A SILVER
CITY TO ALAMOGORDO LINE AS DRIER AIR INVADES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. DRY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE BORDERLAND MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING EAST OF THE CWA.

JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
BACKS THE FLOW TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS ALLOWS THE
DRYLINE TO SLIP BACK FURTHER WEST. AN IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER POSSIBLE MOIST SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WOULD
RESULT IN A CLASSIC MAY SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. GETTING WAY AHEAD OF OURSELVES HERE...BUT IT IS MAY AFTER
ALL...WHICH HISTORICALLY IS THE TOP HAIL MONTH FOR EL PASO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/12Z-04/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN AFTR 20Z
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. AFT 18Z ISOLD HIGH BASE -TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE GILA WILDERNESS...NM BOOT HEEL AND
SACRAMENTO MTNS. LOW VISIBILITIES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BEGINNING TODAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
THEN MOVES MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS ALL FIRE
WEATHER ZONES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS...HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES AND COOLER HIGH TEMPS TO THE AREA. LATE TUESDAY
THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY WITH BREEZY
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

TODAY MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
LOWLANDS. IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS MIN RH VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 20S. MIN RH VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE TOMORROW
AND MONDAY. VENT RATES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  64  86  62  81 /   0  10  10  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           85  58  83  55  78 /   0  20  20  30  20
LAS CRUCES              85  54  83  52  77 /   0  10  20  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              86  57  83  55  77 /   0  10  20  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              65  45  62  42  56 /  20  20  30  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   83  54  81  51  75 /   0  10  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             77  49  74  44  67 /  20  10  20  30  20
DEMING                  85  52  83  49  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
LORDSBURG               83  51  81  47  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      87  63  85  61  80 /   0  10  10  20   0
DELL CITY               89  57  85  56  80 /  10  20  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            90  60  87  58  82 /   0  20  20  30   0
LOMA LINDA              82  59  80  57  74 /   0  10  20  30   0
FABENS                  88  59  86  57  81 /   0  10  10  20   0
SANTA TERESA            86  58  85  56  79 /   0  10  10  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          85  61  82  59  77 /   0  10  20  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           85  53  83  51  77 /   0  10  20  20  10
HATCH                   86  54  83  51  78 /   0  10  20  20  10
COLUMBUS                84  56  81  55  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
OROGRANDE               85  60  84  58  78 /   0  10  20  30   0
MAYHILL                 73  51  71  48  66 /  20  20  30  40  20
MESCALERO               74  49  71  45  65 /  20  20  30  40  20
TIMBERON                73  50  70  47  64 /  20  20  30  40  20
WINSTON                 76  46  72  43  68 /  20  20  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               81  51  79  47  74 /   0  10  20  20  20
SPACEPORT               85  51  82  49  77 /   0  10  20  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            75  47  73  43  66 /  20  10  30  30  20
HURLEY                  79  48  75  44  70 /   0  10  20  20  10
CLIFF                   82  49  80  44  74 /   0  10  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              79  43  77  38  70 /   0  10  20  20  20
FAYWOOD                 80  50  76  46  71 /   0   0  20  20  10
ANIMAS                  83  52  80  49  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
HACHITA                 83  50  81  48  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  50  80  47  76 /   0  10  10  10   0
CLOVERDALE              79  49  77  46  72 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 031010
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
410 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE LEAVES THE AREA TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE BORDERLAND. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE RAIN WILL NOT
REACH THE GROUND AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE SHOWERS WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. ON TUESDAY DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE BROUGHT HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO MORE OF THE AREA THAN EXPECTED...WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THE
MAIN IMPACT SATURDAY EVENING. THERE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS MUCH
ACTIVITY LATER TODAY AS IMPULSE DEPARTS...WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND
FAR EAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTION. THEN ON
MONDAY DYNAMICS INCREASE THOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE WITH MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF RIO GRANDE
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. NOT MUCH RAIN EXPECTED...JUST A BUNCH OF
WIND BAGS THOUGH THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO THE MORE LIKELY YOU`LL
SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL OF ANY BENEFIT. IN FACT...IF YOU`RE
TRAVELING EAST OF OUR AREA MONDAY INTO THE PLAINS IT WILL BE
REALLY BUSY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER. MEANWHILE BOTH DAYS HERE WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER YET STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NORTH OF A SILVER
CITY TO ALAMOGORDO LINE AS DRIER AIR INVADES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. DRY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE BORDERLAND MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING EAST OF THE CWA.

JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
BACKS THE FLOW TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS ALLOWS THE
DRYLINE TO SLIP BACK FURTHER WEST. AN IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER POSSIBLE MOIST SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WOULD
RESULT IN A CLASSIC MAY SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. GETTING WAY AHEAD OF OURSELVES HERE...BUT IT IS MAY AFTER
ALL...WHICH HISTORICALLY IS THE TOP HAIL MONTH FOR EL PASO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/12Z-04/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN AFTR 20Z
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. AFT 18Z ISOLD HIGH BASE -TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE GILA WILDERNESS...NM BOOT HEEL AND
SACRAMENTO MTNS. LOW VISIBILITIES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BEGINNING TODAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
THEN MOVES MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS ALL FIRE
WEATHER ZONES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS...HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES AND COOLER HIGH TEMPS TO THE AREA. LATE TUESDAY
THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY WITH BREEZY
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

TODAY MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
LOWLANDS. IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS MIN RH VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 20S. MIN RH VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE TOMORROW
AND MONDAY. VENT RATES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  64  86  62  81 /   0  10  10  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           85  58  83  55  78 /   0  20  20  30  20
LAS CRUCES              85  54  83  52  77 /   0  10  20  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              86  57  83  55  77 /   0  10  20  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              65  45  62  42  56 /  20  20  30  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   83  54  81  51  75 /   0  10  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             77  49  74  44  67 /  20  10  20  30  20
DEMING                  85  52  83  49  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
LORDSBURG               83  51  81  47  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      87  63  85  61  80 /   0  10  10  20   0
DELL CITY               89  57  85  56  80 /  10  20  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            90  60  87  58  82 /   0  20  20  30   0
LOMA LINDA              82  59  80  57  74 /   0  10  20  30   0
FABENS                  88  59  86  57  81 /   0  10  10  20   0
SANTA TERESA            86  58  85  56  79 /   0  10  10  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          85  61  82  59  77 /   0  10  20  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           85  53  83  51  77 /   0  10  20  20  10
HATCH                   86  54  83  51  78 /   0  10  20  20  10
COLUMBUS                84  56  81  55  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
OROGRANDE               85  60  84  58  78 /   0  10  20  30   0
MAYHILL                 73  51  71  48  66 /  20  20  30  40  20
MESCALERO               74  49  71  45  65 /  20  20  30  40  20
TIMBERON                73  50  70  47  64 /  20  20  30  40  20
WINSTON                 76  46  72  43  68 /  20  20  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               81  51  79  47  74 /   0  10  20  20  20
SPACEPORT               85  51  82  49  77 /   0  10  20  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            75  47  73  43  66 /  20  10  30  30  20
HURLEY                  79  48  75  44  70 /   0  10  20  20  10
CLIFF                   82  49  80  44  74 /   0  10  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              79  43  77  38  70 /   0  10  20  20  20
FAYWOOD                 80  50  76  46  71 /   0   0  20  20  10
ANIMAS                  83  52  80  49  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
HACHITA                 83  50  81  48  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  50  80  47  76 /   0  10  10  10   0
CLOVERDALE              79  49  77  46  72 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 031010
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
410 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE LEAVES THE AREA TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE BORDERLAND. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE RAIN WILL NOT
REACH THE GROUND AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE SHOWERS WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. ON TUESDAY DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE BROUGHT HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO MORE OF THE AREA THAN EXPECTED...WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THE
MAIN IMPACT SATURDAY EVENING. THERE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS MUCH
ACTIVITY LATER TODAY AS IMPULSE DEPARTS...WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND
FAR EAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTION. THEN ON
MONDAY DYNAMICS INCREASE THOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE WITH MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF RIO GRANDE
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. NOT MUCH RAIN EXPECTED...JUST A BUNCH OF
WIND BAGS THOUGH THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO THE MORE LIKELY YOU`LL
SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL OF ANY BENEFIT. IN FACT...IF YOU`RE
TRAVELING EAST OF OUR AREA MONDAY INTO THE PLAINS IT WILL BE
REALLY BUSY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER. MEANWHILE BOTH DAYS HERE WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER YET STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NORTH OF A SILVER
CITY TO ALAMOGORDO LINE AS DRIER AIR INVADES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. DRY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE BORDERLAND MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING EAST OF THE CWA.

JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
BACKS THE FLOW TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS ALLOWS THE
DRYLINE TO SLIP BACK FURTHER WEST. AN IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER POSSIBLE MOIST SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WOULD
RESULT IN A CLASSIC MAY SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. GETTING WAY AHEAD OF OURSELVES HERE...BUT IT IS MAY AFTER
ALL...WHICH HISTORICALLY IS THE TOP HAIL MONTH FOR EL PASO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/12Z-04/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN AFTR 20Z
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. AFT 18Z ISOLD HIGH BASE -TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE GILA WILDERNESS...NM BOOT HEEL AND
SACRAMENTO MTNS. LOW VISIBILITIES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BEGINNING TODAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
THEN MOVES MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS ALL FIRE
WEATHER ZONES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS...HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES AND COOLER HIGH TEMPS TO THE AREA. LATE TUESDAY
THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY WITH BREEZY
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

TODAY MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
LOWLANDS. IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS MIN RH VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 20S. MIN RH VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE TOMORROW
AND MONDAY. VENT RATES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  64  86  62  81 /   0  10  10  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           85  58  83  55  78 /   0  20  20  30  20
LAS CRUCES              85  54  83  52  77 /   0  10  20  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              86  57  83  55  77 /   0  10  20  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              65  45  62  42  56 /  20  20  30  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   83  54  81  51  75 /   0  10  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             77  49  74  44  67 /  20  10  20  30  20
DEMING                  85  52  83  49  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
LORDSBURG               83  51  81  47  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      87  63  85  61  80 /   0  10  10  20   0
DELL CITY               89  57  85  56  80 /  10  20  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            90  60  87  58  82 /   0  20  20  30   0
LOMA LINDA              82  59  80  57  74 /   0  10  20  30   0
FABENS                  88  59  86  57  81 /   0  10  10  20   0
SANTA TERESA            86  58  85  56  79 /   0  10  10  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          85  61  82  59  77 /   0  10  20  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           85  53  83  51  77 /   0  10  20  20  10
HATCH                   86  54  83  51  78 /   0  10  20  20  10
COLUMBUS                84  56  81  55  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
OROGRANDE               85  60  84  58  78 /   0  10  20  30   0
MAYHILL                 73  51  71  48  66 /  20  20  30  40  20
MESCALERO               74  49  71  45  65 /  20  20  30  40  20
TIMBERON                73  50  70  47  64 /  20  20  30  40  20
WINSTON                 76  46  72  43  68 /  20  20  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               81  51  79  47  74 /   0  10  20  20  20
SPACEPORT               85  51  82  49  77 /   0  10  20  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            75  47  73  43  66 /  20  10  30  30  20
HURLEY                  79  48  75  44  70 /   0  10  20  20  10
CLIFF                   82  49  80  44  74 /   0  10  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              79  43  77  38  70 /   0  10  20  20  20
FAYWOOD                 80  50  76  46  71 /   0   0  20  20  10
ANIMAS                  83  52  80  49  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
HACHITA                 83  50  81  48  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  50  80  47  76 /   0  10  10  10   0
CLOVERDALE              79  49  77  46  72 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 031010
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
410 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE LEAVES THE AREA TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE BORDERLAND. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE RAIN WILL NOT
REACH THE GROUND AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE SHOWERS WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. ON TUESDAY DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE BROUGHT HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO MORE OF THE AREA THAN EXPECTED...WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THE
MAIN IMPACT SATURDAY EVENING. THERE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS MUCH
ACTIVITY LATER TODAY AS IMPULSE DEPARTS...WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND
FAR EAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTION. THEN ON
MONDAY DYNAMICS INCREASE THOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE WITH MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF RIO GRANDE
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. NOT MUCH RAIN EXPECTED...JUST A BUNCH OF
WIND BAGS THOUGH THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO THE MORE LIKELY YOU`LL
SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL OF ANY BENEFIT. IN FACT...IF YOU`RE
TRAVELING EAST OF OUR AREA MONDAY INTO THE PLAINS IT WILL BE
REALLY BUSY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER. MEANWHILE BOTH DAYS HERE WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER YET STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NORTH OF A SILVER
CITY TO ALAMOGORDO LINE AS DRIER AIR INVADES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. DRY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE BORDERLAND MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING EAST OF THE CWA.

JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
BACKS THE FLOW TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS ALLOWS THE
DRYLINE TO SLIP BACK FURTHER WEST. AN IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER POSSIBLE MOIST SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WOULD
RESULT IN A CLASSIC MAY SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. GETTING WAY AHEAD OF OURSELVES HERE...BUT IT IS MAY AFTER
ALL...WHICH HISTORICALLY IS THE TOP HAIL MONTH FOR EL PASO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/12Z-04/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN AFTR 20Z
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. AFT 18Z ISOLD HIGH BASE -TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE GILA WILDERNESS...NM BOOT HEEL AND
SACRAMENTO MTNS. LOW VISIBILITIES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BEGINNING TODAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
THEN MOVES MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS ALL FIRE
WEATHER ZONES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS...HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES AND COOLER HIGH TEMPS TO THE AREA. LATE TUESDAY
THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY WITH BREEZY
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

TODAY MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
LOWLANDS. IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS MIN RH VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 20S. MIN RH VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE TOMORROW
AND MONDAY. VENT RATES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  64  86  62  81 /   0  10  10  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           85  58  83  55  78 /   0  20  20  30  20
LAS CRUCES              85  54  83  52  77 /   0  10  20  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              86  57  83  55  77 /   0  10  20  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              65  45  62  42  56 /  20  20  30  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   83  54  81  51  75 /   0  10  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             77  49  74  44  67 /  20  10  20  30  20
DEMING                  85  52  83  49  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
LORDSBURG               83  51  81  47  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      87  63  85  61  80 /   0  10  10  20   0
DELL CITY               89  57  85  56  80 /  10  20  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            90  60  87  58  82 /   0  20  20  30   0
LOMA LINDA              82  59  80  57  74 /   0  10  20  30   0
FABENS                  88  59  86  57  81 /   0  10  10  20   0
SANTA TERESA            86  58  85  56  79 /   0  10  10  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          85  61  82  59  77 /   0  10  20  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           85  53  83  51  77 /   0  10  20  20  10
HATCH                   86  54  83  51  78 /   0  10  20  20  10
COLUMBUS                84  56  81  55  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
OROGRANDE               85  60  84  58  78 /   0  10  20  30   0
MAYHILL                 73  51  71  48  66 /  20  20  30  40  20
MESCALERO               74  49  71  45  65 /  20  20  30  40  20
TIMBERON                73  50  70  47  64 /  20  20  30  40  20
WINSTON                 76  46  72  43  68 /  20  20  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               81  51  79  47  74 /   0  10  20  20  20
SPACEPORT               85  51  82  49  77 /   0  10  20  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            75  47  73  43  66 /  20  10  30  30  20
HURLEY                  79  48  75  44  70 /   0  10  20  20  10
CLIFF                   82  49  80  44  74 /   0  10  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              79  43  77  38  70 /   0  10  20  20  20
FAYWOOD                 80  50  76  46  71 /   0   0  20  20  10
ANIMAS                  83  52  80  49  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
HACHITA                 83  50  81  48  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  50  80  47  76 /   0  10  10  10   0
CLOVERDALE              79  49  77  46  72 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 031010
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
410 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE LEAVES THE AREA TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE BORDERLAND. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE RAIN WILL NOT
REACH THE GROUND AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE SHOWERS WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA. ON TUESDAY DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW WITH DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SHORT WAVE BROUGHT HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO MORE OF THE AREA THAN EXPECTED...WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THE
MAIN IMPACT SATURDAY EVENING. THERE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS MUCH
ACTIVITY LATER TODAY AS IMPULSE DEPARTS...WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND
FAR EAST HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTION. THEN ON
MONDAY DYNAMICS INCREASE THOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE WITH MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF RIO GRANDE
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. NOT MUCH RAIN EXPECTED...JUST A BUNCH OF
WIND BAGS THOUGH THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO THE MORE LIKELY YOU`LL
SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL OF ANY BENEFIT. IN FACT...IF YOU`RE
TRAVELING EAST OF OUR AREA MONDAY INTO THE PLAINS IT WILL BE
REALLY BUSY WITH ACTIVE WEATHER. MEANWHILE BOTH DAYS HERE WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER YET STILL A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NORTH OF A SILVER
CITY TO ALAMOGORDO LINE AS DRIER AIR INVADES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. DRY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE BORDERLAND MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING EAST OF THE CWA.

JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
BACKS THE FLOW TO MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS ALLOWS THE
DRYLINE TO SLIP BACK FURTHER WEST. AN IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER POSSIBLE MOIST SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WOULD
RESULT IN A CLASSIC MAY SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. GETTING WAY AHEAD OF OURSELVES HERE...BUT IT IS MAY AFTER
ALL...WHICH HISTORICALLY IS THE TOP HAIL MONTH FOR EL PASO.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/12Z-04/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN AFTR 20Z
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY. AFT 18Z ISOLD HIGH BASE -TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE GILA WILDERNESS...NM BOOT HEEL AND
SACRAMENTO MTNS. LOW VISIBILITIES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BEGINNING TODAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
THEN MOVES MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS ALL FIRE
WEATHER ZONES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS...HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES AND COOLER HIGH TEMPS TO THE AREA. LATE TUESDAY
THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TAKES OVER. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY WITH BREEZY
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

TODAY MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
LOWLANDS. IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS MIN RH VALUES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 20S. MIN RH VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE TOMORROW
AND MONDAY. VENT RATES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 88  64  86  62  81 /   0  10  10  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           85  58  83  55  78 /   0  20  20  30  20
LAS CRUCES              85  54  83  52  77 /   0  10  20  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              86  57  83  55  77 /   0  10  20  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              65  45  62  42  56 /  20  20  30  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   83  54  81  51  75 /   0  10  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             77  49  74  44  67 /  20  10  20  30  20
DEMING                  85  52  83  49  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
LORDSBURG               83  51  81  47  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      87  63  85  61  80 /   0  10  10  20   0
DELL CITY               89  57  85  56  80 /  10  20  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            90  60  87  58  82 /   0  20  20  30   0
LOMA LINDA              82  59  80  57  74 /   0  10  20  30   0
FABENS                  88  59  86  57  81 /   0  10  10  20   0
SANTA TERESA            86  58  85  56  79 /   0  10  10  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          85  61  82  59  77 /   0  10  20  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           85  53  83  51  77 /   0  10  20  20  10
HATCH                   86  54  83  51  78 /   0  10  20  20  10
COLUMBUS                84  56  81  55  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
OROGRANDE               85  60  84  58  78 /   0  10  20  30   0
MAYHILL                 73  51  71  48  66 /  20  20  30  40  20
MESCALERO               74  49  71  45  65 /  20  20  30  40  20
TIMBERON                73  50  70  47  64 /  20  20  30  40  20
WINSTON                 76  46  72  43  68 /  20  20  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               81  51  79  47  74 /   0  10  20  20  20
SPACEPORT               85  51  82  49  77 /   0  10  20  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            75  47  73  43  66 /  20  10  30  30  20
HURLEY                  79  48  75  44  70 /   0  10  20  20  10
CLIFF                   82  49  80  44  74 /   0  10  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              79  43  77  38  70 /   0  10  20  20  20
FAYWOOD                 80  50  76  46  71 /   0   0  20  20  10
ANIMAS                  83  52  80  49  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
HACHITA                 83  50  81  48  77 /   0  10  10  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  50  80  47  76 /   0  10  10  10   0
CLOVERDALE              79  49  77  46  72 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01 FAUSETT






000
FXUS64 KMAF 030943
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge over the area slowly slides east today as an upper
trough moves ashore the CA coast.  This trough will bring a chance
of the storms to the region as it moves east... passing over the 4
corners region early Tuesday and Rockies early Wednesday.  As it
moves off to the NE a stronger low over the Pacific NW will dig down
the coast.  This will keep the region unstable through the week and
keep low chances of storms in the forecast.

Will have another warm day today with highs near normal and
increasing clouds.  Chance of afternoon/evening storms mainly for SE
NM... the Trans Pecos... down through the Davis Mountains.  To have
rain need decent moisture to work with.  Current dewpts in the 30s
and 40s... this needs to significantly increase before have
potential for heavy rain.  Latest model guidance shows dewpts climb
into the low 60s Monday.

Not expecting much in the way of severe wx today but cant completely
rule it out.  Moisture should be pushed back to the mountains and
when combined with daytime heating storm development over the higher
elevation possible.  In addition to orographic lift may have a weak
shortwave move over the area to help storm initiation... but dont see
much sign of a dryline today.  Have expanded pops westward this
afternoon as meso eta qpf develops considerable amounts of precip
back across the western CWA.

Severe wx potential increases on Monday as convergence along the
dryline increases and upper support improves.  Have added mention of
large hail and damaging wind to wx grid Monday afternoon along the
dryline.  Model sounding Monday afternoon/evening for FST shows good
turning of the wind with height and good speed shear so will
continue to mention isolated tornadoes.  For time being with leave
mention of severe in forecast for all of Monday night but expect
most severe storms will be in the 18z-06z time period.  Expect
sometime overnight severe potential should change over to heavy
rain. Model soundings for the Permian Basin show PW climb over 1
inch by 12z Monday and stay elevated through Tuesday.  Have heaviest
qpf over SE NM and Western Permian Basin... will be issuing a Flash
Flood Watch for this area for Monday night.  Later shifts may expand
this watch both in coverage and time.

The dryline will be farther east on Tuesday and the upper low will
be moving over the 4 corners region which is a favorable location
for severe wx across W TX and SE NM.  Will continue likely pops
Tuesday but not add mention of severe storms to the forecast yet but
continue to mention severe potential in HWO.  SWODY3 has the eastern
half of the CWA in a slight risk so Tuesday may turn out to be a
bigger severe day than Monday.  Low chance of storms continue
through the extended mainly for eastern CWA along/east of a daily
dryline.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 85  61  77  61  /  20  10  30  70
BIG SPRING TX              87  63  80  61  /  10  10  20  60
CARLSBAD NM                89  58  83  57  /  30  20  50  70
DRYDEN TX                  87  66  85  66  /  10  10  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  63  82  62  /  20  20  30  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          84  54  79  56  /  20  20  40  60
HOBBS NM                   85  59  76  58  /  30  20  40  80
MARFA TX                   83  48  80  50  /  30  20  20  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  63  78  62  /  10  10  30  60
ODESSA TX                  86  62  78  62  /  20  10  30  70
WINK TX                    91  62  82  62  /  30  20  40  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

27/72

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 030927
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM INLAND SO MAY
GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

39

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  64  83  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  83  67  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...46




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030927
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM INLAND SO MAY
GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

39

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  64  83  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  83  67  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...46




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030927
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM INLAND SO MAY
GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

39

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  64  83  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  83  67  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...46




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030927
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
427 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE N PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER SE TX WITH MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
GULF. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOOK FOR DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT/CALM INLAND SO MAY
GET SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

PRECIP CHANCES REALLY DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL MOISTURE DEEPENS
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. HIGHER PRECIP WATER VALUES DO NOT
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER TX UNTIL TUE INTO WED. PRECIP WATER VALUES
OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES WILL PERSIST TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE QUESTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEPEND UPON LIFT/INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA AND A MORE POTENT SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL OF
THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FIRST
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE S ROCKIES WITH A BIT OF A NEG TILT ON TUE.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER TX ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AND JET STREAM COMING INTO TX FROM ACROSS MEXICO. WITH
850MB FLOW LARGELY FROM THE SE/S...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN
EML FOR CAPPING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT AN EML NEVER REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT EVEN SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HEATING SUPPORTING MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN MODEL DATA FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY IS
THAT LARGE SCALE LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE. THE JET
STREAM IS MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE REGION THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUGGESTS SOME SUBSIDENCE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOES NOT
LOOK A GREAT AND JET STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE AN IMPACT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK ON FRI/SAT. DURING THIS TIME UPPER FLOW STILL HAS SOME
RIDGING OR AT LEAST SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT WHICH WOULD
LIMIT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. FINALLY THERE ARE REALLY NOT ANY STRONG
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION WHICH MEANS THERE MAY NEED TO BE
SOME MESOSCALE FORCING TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SO THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN RAIN CHANCES. FORECAST DOES KEEP MAINLY 40
POPS FOR TUE/WED BUT TRIMMED BACK CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MAIN HAZARDS FOR THE COMING WEEK HAD BEEN MAINLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT EVEN TEMPERED THOSE EXPECTATIONS SINCE
LIFT MAY BE LIMITED. POSSIBLE THAT A STORM OR TWO COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS OR BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS FROM TUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED A BIT MORE THAN BEFORE. CAPE EACH DAY MAY REACH
1000-1500 J/KG WHERE YESTERDAY EVEN 2500 J/KG COULD BE EXPECTED.
THIS IS WHERE RIDGING OR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL AFFECT
INSTABILITY. THIS TYPE OF FLOW WILL HINDER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM
DEVELOPING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

39

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AND POSSIBLY ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN INCREASING MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.
46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  64  83  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  83  67  82 /  10  10  10  10  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...46




000
FXUS64 KSJT 030924
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
424 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...

(Today and Tonight)

Another nice day in store for West Central Texas under partly cloudy
skies and afternoon highs once again in the mid 80s. The upper ridge
that has been parked over the forecast area will begin to edge
eastward in response to Pacific upper trough moving over southern
California. As the upper level winds over the area begin to back to
the southwest, chances of convective activity will start to increase
over the area.

Have included a slight chance of thunderstorms over western Crockett
county for tonight as a strengthening LLJ over west Texas and
increasing low level moisture advection from the Gulf move over
higher terrain in the Big Bend area. With the dryline over west
Texas aiding in the initiation of convective activity, there is a
slight chance of residual thunderstorm activity surviving long
enough to make into western Crockett county tonight. Morning lows
Sunday will be in the lower 60s across all of West Central Texas
with clouds increasing over the area.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances continue for all long term periods, and temperatures
remain relatively unremarkable. Models continue to develop a
closed low aloft over the western United States. With the resulting
southwest flow aloft over Texas, combined with good moisture fetch
from the Gulf, rain chances continue to look promising. The best
periods for rain continue to be Tuesday and Tuesday night, as the
upper trough moves into New Mexico, with a slightly negative tilt.
With May a peak severe weather month, the potential for severe
thunderstorms is a given for any thunderstorms which develop. The
Storm Prediction Center has our western counties in a slight risk
area on their day 3 outlook; this looks reasonable given support
aloft and dryline forcing near the surface. Although confidence in
identifying the exact timing of possible severe thunderstorms
remains low, given current model data, Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday evening look most likely. Also, confidence is fairly high
regarding the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop;
nevertheless, confidence as to how much of our 24 counties will
see this activity is lower. Thus, PoPs mainly in the chance
range, for all long term periods, look to be the best approach for
now. As for temperatures, highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to
the mid 80s look reasonable, with lows mainly in the lower to mid
60s.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  62  78  62  76 /   5  10  20  30  60
San Angelo  86  63  81  62  77 /   5  10  20  40  60
Junction  81  64  79  63  78 /   5  10  20  30  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSJT 030924
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
424 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...

(Today and Tonight)

Another nice day in store for West Central Texas under partly cloudy
skies and afternoon highs once again in the mid 80s. The upper ridge
that has been parked over the forecast area will begin to edge
eastward in response to Pacific upper trough moving over southern
California. As the upper level winds over the area begin to back to
the southwest, chances of convective activity will start to increase
over the area.

Have included a slight chance of thunderstorms over western Crockett
county for tonight as a strengthening LLJ over west Texas and
increasing low level moisture advection from the Gulf move over
higher terrain in the Big Bend area. With the dryline over west
Texas aiding in the initiation of convective activity, there is a
slight chance of residual thunderstorm activity surviving long
enough to make into western Crockett county tonight. Morning lows
Sunday will be in the lower 60s across all of West Central Texas
with clouds increasing over the area.

15

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Rain chances continue for all long term periods, and temperatures
remain relatively unremarkable. Models continue to develop a
closed low aloft over the western United States. With the resulting
southwest flow aloft over Texas, combined with good moisture fetch
from the Gulf, rain chances continue to look promising. The best
periods for rain continue to be Tuesday and Tuesday night, as the
upper trough moves into New Mexico, with a slightly negative tilt.
With May a peak severe weather month, the potential for severe
thunderstorms is a given for any thunderstorms which develop. The
Storm Prediction Center has our western counties in a slight risk
area on their day 3 outlook; this looks reasonable given support
aloft and dryline forcing near the surface. Although confidence in
identifying the exact timing of possible severe thunderstorms
remains low, given current model data, Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday evening look most likely. Also, confidence is fairly high
regarding the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop;
nevertheless, confidence as to how much of our 24 counties will
see this activity is lower. Thus, PoPs mainly in the chance
range, for all long term periods, look to be the best approach for
now. As for temperatures, highs mainly ranging from the mid 70s to
the mid 80s look reasonable, with lows mainly in the lower to mid
60s.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  62  78  62  76 /   5  10  20  30  60
San Angelo  86  63  81  62  77 /   5  10  20  40  60
Junction  81  64  79  63  78 /   5  10  20  30  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KEWX 030919
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
419 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SKIES GENERALLY
REMAIN CLEAR WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT TEMPERATURE CONVERGE. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY AS
THE BETTER SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST.
WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE IN SHOWING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION. FOR NOW...WE/LL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-10 AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT GIVEN
FAIRLY LOW CAPES AND WIND SHEAR...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK JUST YET. WE DO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS INTACT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
ALL SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES (MAINLY 20-30%) GOING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  64  84  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  62  83  64  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  64  83  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  62  81  63  79 /  -   -   10  10  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  68  83  68  82 /  -   20  30  40  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  63  82  64  80 /  -   -   10  10  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             83  66  83  66  81 /  10  10  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  64  82  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  83  65  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  65  83  66  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  67  84  66  83 /  10  10  20  10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 030919
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
419 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SKIES GENERALLY
REMAIN CLEAR WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT TEMPERATURE CONVERGE. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY AS
THE BETTER SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST.
WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE IN SHOWING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION. FOR NOW...WE/LL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-10 AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT GIVEN
FAIRLY LOW CAPES AND WIND SHEAR...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK JUST YET. WE DO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS INTACT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
ALL SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES (MAINLY 20-30%) GOING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  64  84  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  62  83  64  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  64  83  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  62  81  63  79 /  -   -   10  10  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  68  83  68  82 /  -   20  30  40  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  63  82  64  80 /  -   -   10  10  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             83  66  83  66  81 /  10  10  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  64  82  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  83  65  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  65  83  66  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  67  84  66  83 /  10  10  20  10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 030919
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
419 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SKIES GENERALLY
REMAIN CLEAR WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT TEMPERATURE CONVERGE. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY AS
THE BETTER SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST.
WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE IN SHOWING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION. FOR NOW...WE/LL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-10 AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT GIVEN
FAIRLY LOW CAPES AND WIND SHEAR...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK JUST YET. WE DO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS INTACT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
ALL SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES (MAINLY 20-30%) GOING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  64  84  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  62  83  64  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  64  83  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  62  81  63  79 /  -   -   10  10  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  68  83  68  82 /  -   20  30  40  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  63  82  64  80 /  -   -   10  10  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             83  66  83  66  81 /  10  10  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  64  82  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  83  65  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  65  83  66  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  67  84  66  83 /  10  10  20  10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 030919
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
419 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SKIES GENERALLY
REMAIN CLEAR WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT TEMPERATURE CONVERGE. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY AS
THE BETTER SETUP FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST.
WE DID KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE IN SHOWING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION. FOR NOW...WE/LL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF I-10 AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT GIVEN
FAIRLY LOW CAPES AND WIND SHEAR...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK JUST YET. WE DO EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS INTACT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
ALL SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES (MAINLY 20-30%) GOING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  64  84  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  62  83  64  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  64  83  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  62  81  63  79 /  -   -   10  10  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  68  83  68  82 /  -   20  30  40  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  63  82  64  80 /  -   -   10  10  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             83  66  83  66  81 /  10  10  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  64  82  65  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  83  65  82 /  -   -   10  10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  65  83  66  82 /  -   10  20  10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  67  84  66  83 /  10  10  20  10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KLUB 030905
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AFTER THE RECENT QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER THINGS WILL BEGIN TRENDING
TOWARD THE MORE ACTIVE SIDE...STARTING TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE IS BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT...ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO SHOULD BE WELL TIMED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE ADDED
LARGE SCALE LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE ONE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AS 08Z
DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S COMMON FURTHER EAST OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT
TO HOLD THE MOISTURE IN TODAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS DEEP MIXING
WILL LIKELY DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S NEAR THE TX/NM LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH THE FORCING
ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY CAP AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY
MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY WITH PROGGED MLCAPE CAPE
GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...SO THIS SHOULD
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. HOWEVER...A DEEP AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY STRONG CORES ALOFT. IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO LEND TO BRIEF BOUTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH THE
MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW-
LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND OVERALL RAIN
COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. STILL...IT DOES APPEAR COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SOLID CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES EASTWARD THIS EVENING IT WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO INCREASING INHIBITION. THE
INCREASING CIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION CAN
PROPAGATE AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF FOR THE
CONVECTION SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD FADE LATE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY...COMPLETE WITH STRATUS AND THE PROMISE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. TONIGHT WILL BE
MILD...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...
.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LIKELY TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL.

DURING THIS PERIOD AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OUT OF SRN CA/NRN BAJA
NEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...MOVING PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL ITERATIONS. AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH...WE EXPECT A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LEAD WAVE TO PASS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS...AND PROVIDE THE INITIAL IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE SHOULD
ALREADY BE IN PLACE...WITH THE DRYLINE HAVING RETREATED INTO ERN
NM SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE MORNING STRATUS AND COOLER SURFACE
TEMPS...MONDAY/S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE-RATES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CINH TO ERODE QUICKLY AND T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY OCCUR PRETTY MUCH
ANYWHERE...WE/LL FOCUS ON THE WRN AND ESPECIALLY THE SW SPLNS
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER ASCENT AND
INSTABILITY. CAPES IN THIS AREA MAY REACH 2000 J/KG OR SO AND THIS
AREA WILL ALSO BE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF LUBBOCK. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DIMINISHING CAPE AND
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

T-STORMS MAY REALLY GET GOING ACROSS ERN NM AND THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCOMING TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SWATH OF
HIGH QPF NEAR THE STATE LINE AND EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS AT TIMES SHOWN A
SECOND HIGH QPF SIGNAL ACROSS THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN...WHICH IF IT
OCCURRED COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE MOISTURE HEADING
NEWD...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. WITHIN THIS SWATH...WE COULD SEE
THE TRAINING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL /2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS/ AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.

THE TUESDAY FORECAST WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION AND
EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/IES/. THE BEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL HAVE ONGOING
STORMS TUESDAY MORNING...CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LAY DOWN A BOUNDARY WHICH MAY BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WE CAN GET SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESIDE. MID-LVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS PROVIDED THERE IS ENOUGH BUOYANCY.
HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE FIELDS LIKELY TO BE MESSY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH CAPE PRODUCTION...THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...THE DRYLINE MAY OR MAY NOT
MOVE BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY.

WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY LINGER SOMEWHERE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORMS IN THAT AREA. THU INTO
FRI...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH RELOADS WITH AN UPPER LOW DIGGING
SWD THROUGH THE GOLDEN STATE. ENERGETIC SW FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOSHING DRYLINE WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL T-STORMS CHANCES EACH DAY
FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY AS WELL. SMALL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT THERE APPEAR TO BE SUCH IMPULSES INCOMING
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK SHOULD BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  54  75  54 /  30  30  40  80
TULIA         86  57  75  56 /  20  30  20  70
PLAINVIEW     84  58  74  56 /  20  30  20  70
LEVELLAND     86  59  75  57 /  20  40  40  80
LUBBOCK       87  61  75  58 /  10  20  30  70
DENVER CITY   86  58  76  57 /  20  30  40  80
BROWNFIELD    85  59  76  58 /  20  30  40  70
CHILDRESS     86  61  79  60 /  10  10  20  50
SPUR          84  59  76  58 /   0  10  20  60
ASPERMONT     87  61  79  61 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33



000
FXUS64 KLUB 030905
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AFTER THE RECENT QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER THINGS WILL BEGIN TRENDING
TOWARD THE MORE ACTIVE SIDE...STARTING TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE IS BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT...ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO SHOULD BE WELL TIMED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE ADDED
LARGE SCALE LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE ONE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AS 08Z
DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S COMMON FURTHER EAST OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT
TO HOLD THE MOISTURE IN TODAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS DEEP MIXING
WILL LIKELY DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S NEAR THE TX/NM LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH THE FORCING
ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY CAP AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY
MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY WITH PROGGED MLCAPE CAPE
GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...SO THIS SHOULD
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. HOWEVER...A DEEP AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY STRONG CORES ALOFT. IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO LEND TO BRIEF BOUTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH THE
MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW-
LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND OVERALL RAIN
COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. STILL...IT DOES APPEAR COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SOLID CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES EASTWARD THIS EVENING IT WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO INCREASING INHIBITION. THE
INCREASING CIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION CAN
PROPAGATE AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF FOR THE
CONVECTION SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD FADE LATE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY...COMPLETE WITH STRATUS AND THE PROMISE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. TONIGHT WILL BE
MILD...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...
.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LIKELY TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL.

DURING THIS PERIOD AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OUT OF SRN CA/NRN BAJA
NEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...MOVING PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL ITERATIONS. AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH...WE EXPECT A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LEAD WAVE TO PASS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS...AND PROVIDE THE INITIAL IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE SHOULD
ALREADY BE IN PLACE...WITH THE DRYLINE HAVING RETREATED INTO ERN
NM SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE MORNING STRATUS AND COOLER SURFACE
TEMPS...MONDAY/S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE-RATES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CINH TO ERODE QUICKLY AND T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY OCCUR PRETTY MUCH
ANYWHERE...WE/LL FOCUS ON THE WRN AND ESPECIALLY THE SW SPLNS
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER ASCENT AND
INSTABILITY. CAPES IN THIS AREA MAY REACH 2000 J/KG OR SO AND THIS
AREA WILL ALSO BE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF LUBBOCK. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DIMINISHING CAPE AND
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

T-STORMS MAY REALLY GET GOING ACROSS ERN NM AND THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCOMING TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SWATH OF
HIGH QPF NEAR THE STATE LINE AND EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS AT TIMES SHOWN A
SECOND HIGH QPF SIGNAL ACROSS THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN...WHICH IF IT
OCCURRED COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE MOISTURE HEADING
NEWD...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. WITHIN THIS SWATH...WE COULD SEE
THE TRAINING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL /2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS/ AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.

THE TUESDAY FORECAST WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION AND
EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/IES/. THE BEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL HAVE ONGOING
STORMS TUESDAY MORNING...CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LAY DOWN A BOUNDARY WHICH MAY BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WE CAN GET SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESIDE. MID-LVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS PROVIDED THERE IS ENOUGH BUOYANCY.
HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE FIELDS LIKELY TO BE MESSY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH CAPE PRODUCTION...THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...THE DRYLINE MAY OR MAY NOT
MOVE BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY.

WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY LINGER SOMEWHERE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORMS IN THAT AREA. THU INTO
FRI...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH RELOADS WITH AN UPPER LOW DIGGING
SWD THROUGH THE GOLDEN STATE. ENERGETIC SW FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOSHING DRYLINE WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL T-STORMS CHANCES EACH DAY
FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY AS WELL. SMALL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT THERE APPEAR TO BE SUCH IMPULSES INCOMING
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK SHOULD BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  54  75  54 /  30  30  40  80
TULIA         86  57  75  56 /  20  30  20  70
PLAINVIEW     84  58  74  56 /  20  30  20  70
LEVELLAND     86  59  75  57 /  20  40  40  80
LUBBOCK       87  61  75  58 /  10  20  30  70
DENVER CITY   86  58  76  57 /  20  30  40  80
BROWNFIELD    85  59  76  58 /  20  30  40  70
CHILDRESS     86  61  79  60 /  10  10  20  50
SPUR          84  59  76  58 /   0  10  20  60
ASPERMONT     87  61  79  61 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 030905
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AFTER THE RECENT QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER THINGS WILL BEGIN TRENDING
TOWARD THE MORE ACTIVE SIDE...STARTING TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE IS BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT...ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO SHOULD BE WELL TIMED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE ADDED
LARGE SCALE LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE ONE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AS 08Z
DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S COMMON FURTHER EAST OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT
TO HOLD THE MOISTURE IN TODAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS DEEP MIXING
WILL LIKELY DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S NEAR THE TX/NM LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH THE FORCING
ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY CAP AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY
MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY WITH PROGGED MLCAPE CAPE
GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...SO THIS SHOULD
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. HOWEVER...A DEEP AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY STRONG CORES ALOFT. IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO LEND TO BRIEF BOUTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH THE
MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW-
LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND OVERALL RAIN
COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. STILL...IT DOES APPEAR COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SOLID CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES EASTWARD THIS EVENING IT WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO INCREASING INHIBITION. THE
INCREASING CIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION CAN
PROPAGATE AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF FOR THE
CONVECTION SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD FADE LATE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY...COMPLETE WITH STRATUS AND THE PROMISE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. TONIGHT WILL BE
MILD...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...
.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LIKELY TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL.

DURING THIS PERIOD AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OUT OF SRN CA/NRN BAJA
NEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...MOVING PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL ITERATIONS. AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH...WE EXPECT A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LEAD WAVE TO PASS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS...AND PROVIDE THE INITIAL IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE SHOULD
ALREADY BE IN PLACE...WITH THE DRYLINE HAVING RETREATED INTO ERN
NM SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE MORNING STRATUS AND COOLER SURFACE
TEMPS...MONDAY/S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE-RATES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CINH TO ERODE QUICKLY AND T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY OCCUR PRETTY MUCH
ANYWHERE...WE/LL FOCUS ON THE WRN AND ESPECIALLY THE SW SPLNS
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER ASCENT AND
INSTABILITY. CAPES IN THIS AREA MAY REACH 2000 J/KG OR SO AND THIS
AREA WILL ALSO BE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF LUBBOCK. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DIMINISHING CAPE AND
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

T-STORMS MAY REALLY GET GOING ACROSS ERN NM AND THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCOMING TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SWATH OF
HIGH QPF NEAR THE STATE LINE AND EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS AT TIMES SHOWN A
SECOND HIGH QPF SIGNAL ACROSS THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN...WHICH IF IT
OCCURRED COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE MOISTURE HEADING
NEWD...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. WITHIN THIS SWATH...WE COULD SEE
THE TRAINING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL /2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS/ AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.

THE TUESDAY FORECAST WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION AND
EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/IES/. THE BEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL HAVE ONGOING
STORMS TUESDAY MORNING...CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LAY DOWN A BOUNDARY WHICH MAY BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WE CAN GET SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESIDE. MID-LVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS PROVIDED THERE IS ENOUGH BUOYANCY.
HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE FIELDS LIKELY TO BE MESSY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH CAPE PRODUCTION...THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...THE DRYLINE MAY OR MAY NOT
MOVE BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY.

WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY LINGER SOMEWHERE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORMS IN THAT AREA. THU INTO
FRI...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH RELOADS WITH AN UPPER LOW DIGGING
SWD THROUGH THE GOLDEN STATE. ENERGETIC SW FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOSHING DRYLINE WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL T-STORMS CHANCES EACH DAY
FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY AS WELL. SMALL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT THERE APPEAR TO BE SUCH IMPULSES INCOMING
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK SHOULD BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  54  75  54 /  30  30  40  80
TULIA         86  57  75  56 /  20  30  20  70
PLAINVIEW     84  58  74  56 /  20  30  20  70
LEVELLAND     86  59  75  57 /  20  40  40  80
LUBBOCK       87  61  75  58 /  10  20  30  70
DENVER CITY   86  58  76  57 /  20  30  40  80
BROWNFIELD    85  59  76  58 /  20  30  40  70
CHILDRESS     86  61  79  60 /  10  10  20  50
SPUR          84  59  76  58 /   0  10  20  60
ASPERMONT     87  61  79  61 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33



000
FXUS64 KLUB 030905
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
405 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AFTER THE RECENT QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER THINGS WILL BEGIN TRENDING
TOWARD THE MORE ACTIVE SIDE...STARTING TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE IS BEGINNING
TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT...ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO SHOULD BE WELL TIMED TO PROVIDE A LITTLE ADDED
LARGE SCALE LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE ONE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AS 08Z
DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S COMMON FURTHER EAST OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ATTEMPT
TO HOLD THE MOISTURE IN TODAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS DEEP MIXING
WILL LIKELY DROP DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S NEAR THE TX/NM LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH THE FORCING
ALONG/NEAR THE DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY CAP AND LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY
MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY WITH PROGGED MLCAPE CAPE
GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...SO THIS SHOULD
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. HOWEVER...A DEEP AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY STRONG CORES ALOFT. IN ADDITION...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO LEND TO BRIEF BOUTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH THE
MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW-
LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND OVERALL RAIN
COVERAGE/AMOUNTS. STILL...IT DOES APPEAR COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SOLID CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES EASTWARD THIS EVENING IT WILL ENCOUNTER BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO INCREASING INHIBITION. THE
INCREASING CIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION CAN
PROPAGATE AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF FOR THE
CONVECTION SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD FADE LATE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES BY EARLY MONDAY...COMPLETE WITH STRATUS AND THE PROMISE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM EARLY MAY
DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. TONIGHT WILL BE
MILD...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...
.LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LIKELY TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL.

DURING THIS PERIOD AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OUT OF SRN CA/NRN BAJA
NEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS AREA...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY...MOVING PERHAPS JUST SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL ITERATIONS. AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH...WE EXPECT A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LEAD WAVE TO PASS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS...AND PROVIDE THE INITIAL IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE SHOULD
ALREADY BE IN PLACE...WITH THE DRYLINE HAVING RETREATED INTO ERN
NM SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE MORNING STRATUS AND COOLER SURFACE
TEMPS...MONDAY/S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE-RATES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CINH TO ERODE QUICKLY AND T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY OCCUR PRETTY MUCH
ANYWHERE...WE/LL FOCUS ON THE WRN AND ESPECIALLY THE SW SPLNS
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER ASCENT AND
INSTABILITY. CAPES IN THIS AREA MAY REACH 2000 J/KG OR SO AND THIS
AREA WILL ALSO BE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LVL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF LUBBOCK. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DIMINISHING CAPE AND
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

T-STORMS MAY REALLY GET GOING ACROSS ERN NM AND THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCOMING TROUGH. GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SWATH OF
HIGH QPF NEAR THE STATE LINE AND EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GFS HAS AT TIMES SHOWN A
SECOND HIGH QPF SIGNAL ACROSS THE NRN PERMIAN BASIN...WHICH IF IT
OCCURRED COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE MOISTURE HEADING
NEWD...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. WITHIN THIS SWATH...WE COULD SEE
THE TRAINING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL /2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS/ AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.

THE TUESDAY FORECAST WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION AND
EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/IES/. THE BEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL HAVE ONGOING
STORMS TUESDAY MORNING...CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LAY DOWN A BOUNDARY WHICH MAY BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WE CAN GET SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESIDE. MID-LVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS PROVIDED THERE IS ENOUGH BUOYANCY.
HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE FIELDS LIKELY TO BE MESSY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH CAPE PRODUCTION...THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...THE DRYLINE MAY OR MAY NOT
MOVE BACK INTO WEST TEXAS TUESDAY.

WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE
WILL LIKELY LINGER SOMEWHERE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORMS IN THAT AREA. THU INTO
FRI...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH RELOADS WITH AN UPPER LOW DIGGING
SWD THROUGH THE GOLDEN STATE. ENERGETIC SW FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOSHING DRYLINE WILL MAINTAIN DIURNAL T-STORMS CHANCES EACH DAY
FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY AS WELL. SMALL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SW FLOW ARE
DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT THERE APPEAR TO BE SUCH IMPULSES INCOMING
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK SHOULD BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  54  75  54 /  30  30  40  80
TULIA         86  57  75  56 /  20  30  20  70
PLAINVIEW     84  58  74  56 /  20  30  20  70
LEVELLAND     86  59  75  57 /  20  40  40  80
LUBBOCK       87  61  75  58 /  10  20  30  70
DENVER CITY   86  58  76  57 /  20  30  40  80
BROWNFIELD    85  59  76  58 /  20  30  40  70
CHILDRESS     86  61  79  60 /  10  10  20  50
SPUR          84  59  76  58 /   0  10  20  60
ASPERMONT     87  61  79  61 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33




000
FXUS64 KBRO 030859
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
359 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...H5 RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE
WEST AND WSW...BRINGING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE. AT THE
SFC...INCREASING GRADIENT BETWEEN NE GULF RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ACROSS KANSAS WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE
REGION...HELPING TO REINTRODUCE MORE SFC MOISTURE. MOISTURE
ALREADY STARTING TO RETURN...AS SEEN ON PW IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. PW VALUES WILL
REACH 1.5 INCHES BY DAWN MONDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OUT
WEST.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH NORTH AMERICA SPLIT FLOW. TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW TRACKING INTO OR NEAR
THE SW DESERTS AND SLOWLY WORKING THEIR WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW
TO TRACK OVER THE SIERRA MADRE WEST OF THE CWA FIRING OFF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST AND HOW MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
LOWER WITH THE POPS AND HAS CONCENTRATED THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WPC GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS THE
MOST QPF IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE
COASTAL STRIP SEEING LITTLE TO NO RAIN DURING THE DAYS 3 TO 7
PERIOD. PREVIOUS AND LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND IN THIS
DIRECTION HOWEVER INDICATING A MORE DIURNAL...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...TIMING FOR THE CONVECTION. NO FAVORABLE BOUNDARY IS SEEN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO NO FOCUS FOR ANYTHING MORE THEN 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF POPS ON ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON/EVENING. PWATS
INCREASE OVER 1.8 INCHES SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT CAPES HOWEVER THE
TYPICAL LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE AS 85H TEMPS
WARM UP WITH THE W-SW FLOW. SPC MAINTAINS ANY THREAT WELL WEST OF
THE CWA WHICH VERIFIES THIS CONDITIONAL STABILITY.

OVERALL, LOOKING FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEW POINTS RISE WITH A
PERSISTENT SE-S FLOW AS LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TYPICAL DIURNAL BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS TO COMMENCE AS MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURESWILL
SEE THE BIGGEST INCREASE WITH AVERAGES CLIMBING BACK UPWARDS TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAXIMUMS ALSO ON THE INCREASE BUT NOT AS
EXTREME WITH NEAR EARLY MAY NORMALS.


&&

.MARINE.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO BRING INCREASED SEAS...STARTING AROUND 3 FEET
TODAY AND 4 FEET TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

 /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO MARGINALLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF COMBINES WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS WITH CONDITIONS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TUESDAY AND REMAINING MARGINALLY HIGH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  71  82  73 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  71  84  72 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  70  84  71 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              85  71  86  71 /  10  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      86  69  86  72 /  10  10  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  72  80  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/59



000
FXUS64 KBRO 030859
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
359 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...H5 RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE
WEST AND WSW...BRINGING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE. AT THE
SFC...INCREASING GRADIENT BETWEEN NE GULF RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ACROSS KANSAS WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE
REGION...HELPING TO REINTRODUCE MORE SFC MOISTURE. MOISTURE
ALREADY STARTING TO RETURN...AS SEEN ON PW IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. PW VALUES WILL
REACH 1.5 INCHES BY DAWN MONDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OUT
WEST.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH NORTH AMERICA SPLIT FLOW. TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW TRACKING INTO OR NEAR
THE SW DESERTS AND SLOWLY WORKING THEIR WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW
TO TRACK OVER THE SIERRA MADRE WEST OF THE CWA FIRING OFF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST AND HOW MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
LOWER WITH THE POPS AND HAS CONCENTRATED THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WPC GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS THE
MOST QPF IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE
COASTAL STRIP SEEING LITTLE TO NO RAIN DURING THE DAYS 3 TO 7
PERIOD. PREVIOUS AND LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND IN THIS
DIRECTION HOWEVER INDICATING A MORE DIURNAL...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...TIMING FOR THE CONVECTION. NO FAVORABLE BOUNDARY IS SEEN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO NO FOCUS FOR ANYTHING MORE THEN 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF POPS ON ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON/EVENING. PWATS
INCREASE OVER 1.8 INCHES SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT CAPES HOWEVER THE
TYPICAL LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE AS 85H TEMPS
WARM UP WITH THE W-SW FLOW. SPC MAINTAINS ANY THREAT WELL WEST OF
THE CWA WHICH VERIFIES THIS CONDITIONAL STABILITY.

OVERALL, LOOKING FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEW POINTS RISE WITH A
PERSISTENT SE-S FLOW AS LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TYPICAL DIURNAL BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS TO COMMENCE AS MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TEMPERATURESWILL
SEE THE BIGGEST INCREASE WITH AVERAGES CLIMBING BACK UPWARDS TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAXIMUMS ALSO ON THE INCREASE BUT NOT AS
EXTREME WITH NEAR EARLY MAY NORMALS.


&&

.MARINE.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO BRING INCREASED SEAS...STARTING AROUND 3 FEET
TODAY AND 4 FEET TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

 /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO MARGINALLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF COMBINES WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS WITH CONDITIONS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TUESDAY AND REMAINING MARGINALLY HIGH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  71  82  73 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  71  84  72 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  70  84  71 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              85  71  86  71 /  10  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      86  69  86  72 /  10  10  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  72  80  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/59




000
FXUS64 KCRP 030837
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
337 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER
INLAND AREAS TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (10 POPS) TODAY. INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY CURTAIL
DEEPER CONVECTION...THUS ONLY SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION
WHICH WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF CWFA HAS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
GETTING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO DID INCLUDE 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA (DOES NOT INCLUDE
CITY OF LAREDO AT THIS TIME BUT JUST TO THE NORTH). FOR
MONDAY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS OVER INLAND AREAS (THE MORE WEST
THE BETTER MOISTURE)...SO WILL HAVE 20 POPS NEAR AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 BUT EVEN INCLUDE A 30 POP FOR THE NORTHERN
WEBB/WESTERN LA SALLE REGION. SOME UPPER SUPPORT WITH DIFFLUENT
REGION...BUT BEST SUB TROPICAL JET DYNAMICS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CWFA. MORE CLOUDS AND WIND TODAY...BUT WARMER BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SO WE MAY SEE A JUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
YESTERDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO
MUCH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO AM EXPECTING UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FOR
MONDAY MORNING. EVEN MORE CLOUDS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR BREEZY
CONDITIONS COASTAL REGIONS. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
HIGHS OBSERVED ON SATURDAY THAN ON SUNDAY...SO WENT CLOSER TO
THESE NUMBERS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SCA
TODAY...BUT WILL GET CLOSE TO SCEC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE.
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...COULD GET TO SCEC. CLOSER
AGAIN TO SCEC MORE AREAS ON MONDAY. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AT BEST
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTED TOO MUCH AS
MOISTURE AXIS IS WEST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEASONABLY STRONG LLJ
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. DURING THE DAY TUES A NEGATIVELY
TILTED H5 TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO SWING ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...THOUGH
THE CWA WILL BE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS.
COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUATION OF LLVL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND A SUBTROPICAL JET OVERHEAD /ALBEIT
WEAKENING/...SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. GFS /AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECMWF/ KEEPS
THE CWA ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS GREATER
INSTABILITY AND THUS...FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR
PRIMARILY INLAND LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUBTROPICAL JET
WEAKENS FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH ONLY MINOR VORT MAXES IN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW...ONLY LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS BACK
OVERHEAD AND IS PROG TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY ALSO PROG TO EXIST ACROSS THE CWA. COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL H5 VORT MAX...AND A
STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING...SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH CONVECTION THEN
PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL JET IS PROG TO REMAIN OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...OVERALL THERMAL
PROFILE MAY NEGATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO AN EXTENT. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTIVE CHANCES...MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED MOST MORNINGS WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAX/MIN TEMPS ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  70  81  71  82  /  10  10  20  10  30
VICTORIA          82  66  81  67  83  /  10  10  20  10  40
LAREDO            87  71  85  70  87  /  10  10  20  20  30
ALICE             85  68  83  71  84  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          82  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20
COTULLA           86  68  84  69  84  /  10  10  20  20  40
KINGSVILLE        84  69  83  71  83  /  10  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       81  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 030837
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
337 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER
INLAND AREAS TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (10 POPS) TODAY. INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY CURTAIL
DEEPER CONVECTION...THUS ONLY SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION
WHICH WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF CWFA HAS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
GETTING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO DID INCLUDE 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA (DOES NOT INCLUDE
CITY OF LAREDO AT THIS TIME BUT JUST TO THE NORTH). FOR
MONDAY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS OVER INLAND AREAS (THE MORE WEST
THE BETTER MOISTURE)...SO WILL HAVE 20 POPS NEAR AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 BUT EVEN INCLUDE A 30 POP FOR THE NORTHERN
WEBB/WESTERN LA SALLE REGION. SOME UPPER SUPPORT WITH DIFFLUENT
REGION...BUT BEST SUB TROPICAL JET DYNAMICS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CWFA. MORE CLOUDS AND WIND TODAY...BUT WARMER BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SO WE MAY SEE A JUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
YESTERDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO
MUCH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO AM EXPECTING UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FOR
MONDAY MORNING. EVEN MORE CLOUDS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR BREEZY
CONDITIONS COASTAL REGIONS. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
HIGHS OBSERVED ON SATURDAY THAN ON SUNDAY...SO WENT CLOSER TO
THESE NUMBERS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SCA
TODAY...BUT WILL GET CLOSE TO SCEC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE.
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...COULD GET TO SCEC. CLOSER
AGAIN TO SCEC MORE AREAS ON MONDAY. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AT BEST
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTED TOO MUCH AS
MOISTURE AXIS IS WEST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEASONABLY STRONG LLJ
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. DURING THE DAY TUES A NEGATIVELY
TILTED H5 TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO SWING ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...THOUGH
THE CWA WILL BE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS.
COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUATION OF LLVL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND A SUBTROPICAL JET OVERHEAD /ALBEIT
WEAKENING/...SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. GFS /AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECMWF/ KEEPS
THE CWA ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS GREATER
INSTABILITY AND THUS...FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR
PRIMARILY INLAND LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUBTROPICAL JET
WEAKENS FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH ONLY MINOR VORT MAXES IN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW...ONLY LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS BACK
OVERHEAD AND IS PROG TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY ALSO PROG TO EXIST ACROSS THE CWA. COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL H5 VORT MAX...AND A
STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING...SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH CONVECTION THEN
PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL JET IS PROG TO REMAIN OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...OVERALL THERMAL
PROFILE MAY NEGATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO AN EXTENT. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTIVE CHANCES...MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED MOST MORNINGS WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAX/MIN TEMPS ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  70  81  71  82  /  10  10  20  10  30
VICTORIA          82  66  81  67  83  /  10  10  20  10  40
LAREDO            87  71  85  70  87  /  10  10  20  20  30
ALICE             85  68  83  71  84  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          82  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20
COTULLA           86  68  84  69  84  /  10  10  20  20  40
KINGSVILLE        84  69  83  71  83  /  10  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       81  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 030837
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
337 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER
INLAND AREAS TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (10 POPS) TODAY. INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY CURTAIL
DEEPER CONVECTION...THUS ONLY SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION
WHICH WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF CWFA HAS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
GETTING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO DID INCLUDE 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA (DOES NOT INCLUDE
CITY OF LAREDO AT THIS TIME BUT JUST TO THE NORTH). FOR
MONDAY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS OVER INLAND AREAS (THE MORE WEST
THE BETTER MOISTURE)...SO WILL HAVE 20 POPS NEAR AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 BUT EVEN INCLUDE A 30 POP FOR THE NORTHERN
WEBB/WESTERN LA SALLE REGION. SOME UPPER SUPPORT WITH DIFFLUENT
REGION...BUT BEST SUB TROPICAL JET DYNAMICS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CWFA. MORE CLOUDS AND WIND TODAY...BUT WARMER BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SO WE MAY SEE A JUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
YESTERDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO
MUCH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO AM EXPECTING UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FOR
MONDAY MORNING. EVEN MORE CLOUDS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR BREEZY
CONDITIONS COASTAL REGIONS. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
HIGHS OBSERVED ON SATURDAY THAN ON SUNDAY...SO WENT CLOSER TO
THESE NUMBERS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SCA
TODAY...BUT WILL GET CLOSE TO SCEC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE.
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...COULD GET TO SCEC. CLOSER
AGAIN TO SCEC MORE AREAS ON MONDAY. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AT BEST
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTED TOO MUCH AS
MOISTURE AXIS IS WEST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEASONABLY STRONG LLJ
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. DURING THE DAY TUES A NEGATIVELY
TILTED H5 TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO SWING ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...THOUGH
THE CWA WILL BE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS.
COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUATION OF LLVL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND A SUBTROPICAL JET OVERHEAD /ALBEIT
WEAKENING/...SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. GFS /AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECMWF/ KEEPS
THE CWA ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS GREATER
INSTABILITY AND THUS...FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR
PRIMARILY INLAND LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUBTROPICAL JET
WEAKENS FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH ONLY MINOR VORT MAXES IN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW...ONLY LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS BACK
OVERHEAD AND IS PROG TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY ALSO PROG TO EXIST ACROSS THE CWA. COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL H5 VORT MAX...AND A
STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING...SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH CONVECTION THEN
PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL JET IS PROG TO REMAIN OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...OVERALL THERMAL
PROFILE MAY NEGATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO AN EXTENT. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTIVE CHANCES...MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED MOST MORNINGS WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAX/MIN TEMPS ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  70  81  71  82  /  10  10  20  10  30
VICTORIA          82  66  81  67  83  /  10  10  20  10  40
LAREDO            87  71  85  70  87  /  10  10  20  20  30
ALICE             85  68  83  71  84  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          82  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20
COTULLA           86  68  84  69  84  /  10  10  20  20  40
KINGSVILLE        84  69  83  71  83  /  10  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       81  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 030837
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
337 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER
INLAND AREAS TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (10 POPS) TODAY. INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY CURTAIL
DEEPER CONVECTION...THUS ONLY SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION
WHICH WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF CWFA HAS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
GETTING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO DID INCLUDE 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA (DOES NOT INCLUDE
CITY OF LAREDO AT THIS TIME BUT JUST TO THE NORTH). FOR
MONDAY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS OVER INLAND AREAS (THE MORE WEST
THE BETTER MOISTURE)...SO WILL HAVE 20 POPS NEAR AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 BUT EVEN INCLUDE A 30 POP FOR THE NORTHERN
WEBB/WESTERN LA SALLE REGION. SOME UPPER SUPPORT WITH DIFFLUENT
REGION...BUT BEST SUB TROPICAL JET DYNAMICS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CWFA. MORE CLOUDS AND WIND TODAY...BUT WARMER BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SO WE MAY SEE A JUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
YESTERDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO
MUCH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO AM EXPECTING UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FOR
MONDAY MORNING. EVEN MORE CLOUDS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR BREEZY
CONDITIONS COASTAL REGIONS. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
HIGHS OBSERVED ON SATURDAY THAN ON SUNDAY...SO WENT CLOSER TO
THESE NUMBERS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SCA
TODAY...BUT WILL GET CLOSE TO SCEC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE.
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...COULD GET TO SCEC. CLOSER
AGAIN TO SCEC MORE AREAS ON MONDAY. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AT BEST
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTED TOO MUCH AS
MOISTURE AXIS IS WEST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEASONABLY STRONG LLJ
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. DURING THE DAY TUES A NEGATIVELY
TILTED H5 TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO SWING ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...THOUGH
THE CWA WILL BE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS.
COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUATION OF LLVL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND A SUBTROPICAL JET OVERHEAD /ALBEIT
WEAKENING/...SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. GFS /AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECMWF/ KEEPS
THE CWA ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS GREATER
INSTABILITY AND THUS...FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR
PRIMARILY INLAND LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUBTROPICAL JET
WEAKENS FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH ONLY MINOR VORT MAXES IN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW...ONLY LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS BACK
OVERHEAD AND IS PROG TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY ALSO PROG TO EXIST ACROSS THE CWA. COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL H5 VORT MAX...AND A
STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING...SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH CONVECTION THEN
PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL JET IS PROG TO REMAIN OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...OVERALL THERMAL
PROFILE MAY NEGATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO AN EXTENT. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTIVE CHANCES...MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED MOST MORNINGS WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAX/MIN TEMPS ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  70  81  71  82  /  10  10  20  10  30
VICTORIA          82  66  81  67  83  /  10  10  20  10  40
LAREDO            87  71  85  70  87  /  10  10  20  20  30
ALICE             85  68  83  71  84  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          82  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20
COTULLA           86  68  84  69  84  /  10  10  20  20  40
KINGSVILLE        84  69  83  71  83  /  10  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       81  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 030837
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
337 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER
INLAND AREAS TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (10 POPS) TODAY. INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY CURTAIL
DEEPER CONVECTION...THUS ONLY SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION
WHICH WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF CWFA HAS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
GETTING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO DID INCLUDE 20 POPS FOR THAT AREA (DOES NOT INCLUDE
CITY OF LAREDO AT THIS TIME BUT JUST TO THE NORTH). FOR
MONDAY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS OVER INLAND AREAS (THE MORE WEST
THE BETTER MOISTURE)...SO WILL HAVE 20 POPS NEAR AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 BUT EVEN INCLUDE A 30 POP FOR THE NORTHERN
WEBB/WESTERN LA SALLE REGION. SOME UPPER SUPPORT WITH DIFFLUENT
REGION...BUT BEST SUB TROPICAL JET DYNAMICS STAY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CWFA. MORE CLOUDS AND WIND TODAY...BUT WARMER BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SO WE MAY SEE A JUMP OF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM
YESTERDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO
MUCH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SO AM EXPECTING UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FOR
MONDAY MORNING. EVEN MORE CLOUDS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR BREEZY
CONDITIONS COASTAL REGIONS. CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
HIGHS OBSERVED ON SATURDAY THAN ON SUNDAY...SO WENT CLOSER TO
THESE NUMBERS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SCA
TODAY...BUT WILL GET CLOSE TO SCEC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE.
WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT...COULD GET TO SCEC. CLOSER
AGAIN TO SCEC MORE AREAS ON MONDAY. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AT BEST
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTED TOO MUCH AS
MOISTURE AXIS IS WEST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEASONABLY STRONG LLJ
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE NIGHT ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. DURING THE DAY TUES A NEGATIVELY
TILTED H5 TROUGH AXIS IS PROG TO SWING ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...THOUGH
THE CWA WILL BE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS.
COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...CONTINUATION OF LLVL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...AND A SUBTROPICAL JET OVERHEAD /ALBEIT
WEAKENING/...SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. GFS /AND TO AN EXTENT THE ECMWF/ KEEPS
THE CWA ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS GREATER
INSTABILITY AND THUS...FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR
PRIMARILY INLAND LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUBTROPICAL JET
WEAKENS FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH ONLY MINOR VORT MAXES IN THE
MID LEVEL FLOW...ONLY LOW END CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS BACK
OVERHEAD AND IS PROG TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...WITH GREATER
INSTABILITY ALSO PROG TO EXIST ACROSS THE CWA. COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL H5 VORT MAX...AND A
STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING...SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH CONVECTION THEN
PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THUS...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL JET IS PROG TO REMAIN OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...OVERALL THERMAL
PROFILE MAY NEGATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO AN EXTENT. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTIVE CHANCES...MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED MOST MORNINGS WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. INCREASINGLY HUMID
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAX/MIN TEMPS ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  70  81  71  82  /  10  10  20  10  30
VICTORIA          82  66  81  67  83  /  10  10  20  10  40
LAREDO            87  71  85  70  87  /  10  10  20  20  30
ALICE             85  68  83  71  84  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          82  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20
COTULLA           86  68  84  69  84  /  10  10  20  20  40
KINGSVILLE        84  69  83  71  83  /  10  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       81  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KFWD 030836
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
336 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND THEN WE BEGIN A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
MOST OF THE REGION REACHING THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
AROUND. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH MOST OF THE
REGION IN THE LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
WARM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MOISTURE VALUES AND DEWPOINTS
RISE. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY WITH SOME
ADDED CLOUD COVER BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO...NEW MEXICO AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KEEPS THE BEST LIFT
WEST OF THE AREA BUT CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 60-70 POPS OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...TAPERING TO 30-40 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL
CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE-RICH AIR INTO THE AREA AND PWAT VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5-2 INCHES. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SUGGESTING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W IN AREAS WHERE LAKE LEVELS ARE STILL LOW
AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE WORSE. HOPEFULLY THESE AREAS CAN SEE
SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY
INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY LEAVING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS
WAKE OVER NORTH TEXAS. WE CONTINUE IN THIS PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS AND THEN EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WELL NORTH OF TEXAS. IN THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS FAIRLY PROMINENT AND MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. UNDER THIS PATTERN OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT
DOMINATED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE REGION WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OR DISTURBANCE BEYOND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED WITH A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR CONVECTION...AND
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ANTICIPATING MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DRYLINE MAY ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION EACH DAY BUT
IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. ANY
STORMS MOVING OFF THE DRYLINE MAY DISSIPIATE BEFORE REACHING OUR
CWA.

ISOLATED STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT
CAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP.
HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE LOWER END AND LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK AS WELL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT DUE TO
PWAT VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEEKEND...GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL STRENGTHEN AND IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET CONVECTION BY THEN.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1106 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z MONDAY. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE 11-14Z SUNDAY IN THE WACO
AREA...AND MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED BY 03Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY FROM CONVECTION THAT IS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY EVENING. AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF BKN050-070
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO
THE WACO AREA BY 03Z MONDAY...AND INTO THE METROPLEX AFTER 06Z
MONDAY.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  63  82  63  79 /   0   5  10  10  50
WACO, TX              82  62  82  63  81 /   5  10  10  10  50
PARIS, TX             81  59  81  61  80 /   0   5   5  10  40
DENTON, TX            82  62  81  62  78 /   0   5  10  10  50
MCKINNEY, TX          82  61  81  61  79 /   0   5   5  10  50
DALLAS, TX            84  63  84  64  79 /   0   5   5  10  50
TERRELL, TX           83  61  84  63  79 /   0   5   5  10  50
CORSICANA, TX         81  61  83  63  79 /   5   5  10  10  50
TEMPLE, TX            82  62  83  63  79 /   5  10  10  10  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  61  81  61  78 /   5  10  10  10  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

69/82



000
FXUS64 KFWD 030836
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
336 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND THEN WE BEGIN A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
MOST OF THE REGION REACHING THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH AND THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
AROUND. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH MOST OF THE
REGION IN THE LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
WARM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MOISTURE VALUES AND DEWPOINTS
RISE. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY WITH SOME
ADDED CLOUD COVER BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO...NEW MEXICO AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KEEPS THE BEST LIFT
WEST OF THE AREA BUT CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 60-70 POPS OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES...TAPERING TO 30-40 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL
CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE-RICH AIR INTO THE AREA AND PWAT VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5-2 INCHES. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SUGGESTING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35/35W IN AREAS WHERE LAKE LEVELS ARE STILL LOW
AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE WORSE. HOPEFULLY THESE AREAS CAN SEE
SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY
INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY LEAVING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS
WAKE OVER NORTH TEXAS. WE CONTINUE IN THIS PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS AND THEN EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WELL NORTH OF TEXAS. IN THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS FAIRLY PROMINENT AND MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. UNDER THIS PATTERN OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT
DOMINATED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE REGION WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OR DISTURBANCE BEYOND WEDNESDAY...BUT THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED WITH A WEAKLY CAPPED AND MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR CONVECTION...AND
THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ANTICIPATING MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DRYLINE MAY ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION EACH DAY BUT
IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK. ANY
STORMS MOVING OFF THE DRYLINE MAY DISSIPIATE BEFORE REACHING OUR
CWA.

ISOLATED STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE BUT
CAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG WITH A WEAK CAP.
HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE LOWER END AND LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK AS WELL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT DUE TO
PWAT VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEEKEND...GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL STRENGTHEN AND IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET CONVECTION BY THEN.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1106 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z MONDAY. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE 11-14Z SUNDAY IN THE WACO
AREA...AND MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED BY 03Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY FROM CONVECTION THAT IS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY EVENING. AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF BKN050-070
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO
THE WACO AREA BY 03Z MONDAY...AND INTO THE METROPLEX AFTER 06Z
MONDAY.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  63  82  63  79 /   0   5  10  10  50
WACO, TX              82  62  82  63  81 /   5  10  10  10  50
PARIS, TX             81  59  81  61  80 /   0   5   5  10  40
DENTON, TX            82  62  81  62  78 /   0   5  10  10  50
MCKINNEY, TX          82  61  81  61  79 /   0   5   5  10  50
DALLAS, TX            84  63  84  64  79 /   0   5   5  10  50
TERRELL, TX           83  61  84  63  79 /   0   5   5  10  50
CORSICANA, TX         81  61  83  63  79 /   5   5  10  10  50
TEMPLE, TX            82  62  83  63  79 /   5  10  10  10  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  61  81  61  78 /   5  10  10  10  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

69/82




000
FXUS64 KCRP 030542 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AM EXPECTING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND AREAS THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY AOA 10Z. BASED ON TIME-HEIGHTS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AM EXPECTING JUST A TEMPO MVFR BR/CIG AT KALI BEFORE
14Z...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KLRD AND KVCT ABOUT 13Z/14Z
RESPECTIVELY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE VCSH SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT THIS MORNING...BUT AM EXPECTING
ANY VCSH TO END BY 19Z LATEST AS WINDS BEGIN TO CRANK UP. GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS (LATTER MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON). WINDS
TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KVCT
BUT AM EXPECTING VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...LLVL MSTR WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE STRATO-CU DVLP OR SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY AFTN AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT TNGT THEN FRESHEN SUN AFTN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 30-35 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NAM/GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO 7.5-8 DEGS C/KM OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS TO FORM SUNDAY
MORNING AND DRIFT INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INVERSION AROUND 5-6 KFT KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA
SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE BRUSH COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...SO KEPT POPS
AT 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
SCEC LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PROMOTE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ALOFT...MID/UPPER LVL LOW/TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A SERIES
OF VORT MAXES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEK. THIS PASSING
UPPER LOW WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW DIVING INTO THE SW
CONUS...AND AGAIN SENDING MORE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN DIFFERS FROM THAT OF A COUPLE WEEK
AGO IN THAT THERE IS NOT A SYNOPTIC FORCING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SET
UP IS IN PLACE FOR CHANCE POPS TO OCCUR EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TX/NORTHERN MEXICO. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOWS COMING
UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOW TO MID 70S)...AND HIGHS
SEASONABLE HIGHS (LOW/MID 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WEST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  70  81  71  82  /  10  10  20  10  30
VICTORIA          82  66  81  67  83  /  10  10  20  10  40
LAREDO            87  71  85  70  87  /  10  10  20  20  30
ALICE             85  68  83  71  84  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          82  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20
COTULLA           86  68  84  69  84  /  10  10  20  20  40
KINGSVILLE        84  69  83  71  83  /  10  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       81  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KEWX 030542
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1242 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
AT TAF ISSUANCE...IR SATELLITE SHOWED A FEW CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY
OF KAUS AND SCATTERED VFR CIGS AT KDRT. EXPECTING MVFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KSAT/KSSF AND
EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO KDRT AND KAUS BY SUNRISE. WILL KEEP EYE ON
VIS TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT DO NOT THINK ANY
CATEGORICAL VIS WILL OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD DETERIORATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND VFR WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND 03Z WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
AT ALL TERMINALS.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  64  83  65  82 /  10  10  10  10  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  62  82  65  82 /  10  10  10  10  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  64  82  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  62  81  64  79 /  10  10  10  10  60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  67  83  67  81 /  10  20  30  40  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  63  82  64  80 /  10  10  10  10  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  66  82  66  81 /  10  10  20  20  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  64  82  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  63  83  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  65  82  66  82 /  10  10  20  10  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  66  83  67  83 /  10  10  20  10  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24



000
FXUS64 KCRP 030542 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AM EXPECTING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND AREAS THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY AOA 10Z. BASED ON TIME-HEIGHTS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AM EXPECTING JUST A TEMPO MVFR BR/CIG AT KALI BEFORE
14Z...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KLRD AND KVCT ABOUT 13Z/14Z
RESPECTIVELY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE VCSH SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT THIS MORNING...BUT AM EXPECTING
ANY VCSH TO END BY 19Z LATEST AS WINDS BEGIN TO CRANK UP. GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS (LATTER MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON). WINDS
TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KVCT
BUT AM EXPECTING VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...LLVL MSTR WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE STRATO-CU DVLP OR SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY AFTN AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT TNGT THEN FRESHEN SUN AFTN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 30-35 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NAM/GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO 7.5-8 DEGS C/KM OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS TO FORM SUNDAY
MORNING AND DRIFT INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INVERSION AROUND 5-6 KFT KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA
SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE BRUSH COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...SO KEPT POPS
AT 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
SCEC LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PROMOTE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ALOFT...MID/UPPER LVL LOW/TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A SERIES
OF VORT MAXES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEK. THIS PASSING
UPPER LOW WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW DIVING INTO THE SW
CONUS...AND AGAIN SENDING MORE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN DIFFERS FROM THAT OF A COUPLE WEEK
AGO IN THAT THERE IS NOT A SYNOPTIC FORCING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SET
UP IS IN PLACE FOR CHANCE POPS TO OCCUR EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TX/NORTHERN MEXICO. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOWS COMING
UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOW TO MID 70S)...AND HIGHS
SEASONABLE HIGHS (LOW/MID 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WEST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  70  81  71  82  /  10  10  20  10  30
VICTORIA          82  66  81  67  83  /  10  10  20  10  40
LAREDO            87  71  85  70  87  /  10  10  20  20  30
ALICE             85  68  83  71  84  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          82  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20
COTULLA           86  68  84  69  84  /  10  10  20  20  40
KINGSVILLE        84  69  83  71  83  /  10  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       81  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KEWX 030542
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1242 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
AT TAF ISSUANCE...IR SATELLITE SHOWED A FEW CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY
OF KAUS AND SCATTERED VFR CIGS AT KDRT. EXPECTING MVFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KSAT/KSSF AND
EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO KDRT AND KAUS BY SUNRISE. WILL KEEP EYE ON
VIS TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT DO NOT THINK ANY
CATEGORICAL VIS WILL OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD DETERIORATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND VFR WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND 03Z WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
AT ALL TERMINALS.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  64  83  65  82 /  10  10  10  10  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  62  82  65  82 /  10  10  10  10  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  64  82  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  62  81  64  79 /  10  10  10  10  60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  67  83  67  81 /  10  20  30  40  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  63  82  64  80 /  10  10  10  10  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  66  82  66  81 /  10  10  20  20  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  64  82  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  63  83  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  65  82  66  82 /  10  10  20  10  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  66  83  67  83 /  10  10  20  10  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KCRP 030542 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AM EXPECTING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND AREAS THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY AOA 10Z. BASED ON TIME-HEIGHTS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AM EXPECTING JUST A TEMPO MVFR BR/CIG AT KALI BEFORE
14Z...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KLRD AND KVCT ABOUT 13Z/14Z
RESPECTIVELY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE VCSH SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT THIS MORNING...BUT AM EXPECTING
ANY VCSH TO END BY 19Z LATEST AS WINDS BEGIN TO CRANK UP. GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS (LATTER MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON). WINDS
TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KVCT
BUT AM EXPECTING VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...LLVL MSTR WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE STRATO-CU DVLP OR SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY AFTN AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT TNGT THEN FRESHEN SUN AFTN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 30-35 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NAM/GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO 7.5-8 DEGS C/KM OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS TO FORM SUNDAY
MORNING AND DRIFT INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INVERSION AROUND 5-6 KFT KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA
SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE BRUSH COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...SO KEPT POPS
AT 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
SCEC LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PROMOTE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ALOFT...MID/UPPER LVL LOW/TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A SERIES
OF VORT MAXES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEK. THIS PASSING
UPPER LOW WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW DIVING INTO THE SW
CONUS...AND AGAIN SENDING MORE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN DIFFERS FROM THAT OF A COUPLE WEEK
AGO IN THAT THERE IS NOT A SYNOPTIC FORCING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SET
UP IS IN PLACE FOR CHANCE POPS TO OCCUR EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TX/NORTHERN MEXICO. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOWS COMING
UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOW TO MID 70S)...AND HIGHS
SEASONABLE HIGHS (LOW/MID 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WEST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  70  81  71  82  /  10  10  20  10  30
VICTORIA          82  66  81  67  83  /  10  10  20  10  40
LAREDO            87  71  85  70  87  /  10  10  20  20  30
ALICE             85  68  83  71  84  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          82  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20
COTULLA           86  68  84  69  84  /  10  10  20  20  40
KINGSVILLE        84  69  83  71  83  /  10  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       81  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 030542 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AM EXPECTING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS INLAND AREAS THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY AOA 10Z. BASED ON TIME-HEIGHTS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AM EXPECTING JUST A TEMPO MVFR BR/CIG AT KALI BEFORE
14Z...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KLRD AND KVCT ABOUT 13Z/14Z
RESPECTIVELY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE VCSH SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WEAK LIFT THIS MORNING...BUT AM EXPECTING
ANY VCSH TO END BY 19Z LATEST AS WINDS BEGIN TO CRANK UP. GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS (LATTER MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON). WINDS
TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KVCT
BUT AM EXPECTING VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...LLVL MSTR WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE STRATO-CU DVLP OR SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY AFTN AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT TNGT THEN FRESHEN SUN AFTN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 30-35 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NAM/GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO 7.5-8 DEGS C/KM OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS TO FORM SUNDAY
MORNING AND DRIFT INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INVERSION AROUND 5-6 KFT KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA
SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE BRUSH COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...SO KEPT POPS
AT 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
SCEC LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PROMOTE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ALOFT...MID/UPPER LVL LOW/TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A SERIES
OF VORT MAXES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEK. THIS PASSING
UPPER LOW WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW DIVING INTO THE SW
CONUS...AND AGAIN SENDING MORE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN DIFFERS FROM THAT OF A COUPLE WEEK
AGO IN THAT THERE IS NOT A SYNOPTIC FORCING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SET
UP IS IN PLACE FOR CHANCE POPS TO OCCUR EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TX/NORTHERN MEXICO. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOWS COMING
UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOW TO MID 70S)...AND HIGHS
SEASONABLE HIGHS (LOW/MID 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WEST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  70  81  71  82  /  10  10  20  10  30
VICTORIA          82  66  81  67  83  /  10  10  20  10  40
LAREDO            87  71  85  70  87  /  10  10  20  20  30
ALICE             85  68  83  71  84  /  10  10  20  10  30
ROCKPORT          82  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20
COTULLA           86  68  84  69  84  /  10  10  20  20  40
KINGSVILLE        84  69  83  71  83  /  10  10  20  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       81  72  79  72  80  /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KEWX 030542
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1242 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
AT TAF ISSUANCE...IR SATELLITE SHOWED A FEW CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY
OF KAUS AND SCATTERED VFR CIGS AT KDRT. EXPECTING MVFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KSAT/KSSF AND
EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO KDRT AND KAUS BY SUNRISE. WILL KEEP EYE ON
VIS TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT DO NOT THINK ANY
CATEGORICAL VIS WILL OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD DETERIORATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND VFR WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND 03Z WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
AT ALL TERMINALS.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  64  83  65  82 /  10  10  10  10  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  62  82  65  82 /  10  10  10  10  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  64  82  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  62  81  64  79 /  10  10  10  10  60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  67  83  67  81 /  10  20  30  40  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  63  82  64  80 /  10  10  10  10  60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  66  82  66  81 /  10  10  20  20  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  64  82  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  63  83  65  82 /  10  10  20  10  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  65  82  66  82 /  10  10  20  10  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  66  83  67  83 /  10  10  20  10  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24



000
FXUS64 KBRO 030528 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SKY COVER REMAIN CLEAR AREAWIDE CURRENTLY...BUT IR
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUD BANK BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST SPREADING
NORTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
AFTER SUNRISE CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15G20KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE OF TAFS.
ENOUGH WIND SHOULD REMAIN OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW ONLY FOR THE LIGHTEST
OF FOG. CEILINGS WERE REDUCED 1K FEET AND INITIATED ABOUT TWO
HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AND SURFACE WINDS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE BREEZY THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
OVERALL...MVFR TONIGHT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
AS WELL WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS...WEST
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 20 TO 25
KTS AT 925MB.

TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING IF WINDS DROP LOW
ENOUGH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
RETURNED MOISTURE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
REESTABLISHED...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE GONE AND REPLACED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LEE TROUGHING AND THE MIXING DOWN OF
WINDS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. A
FEW MORE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH 1000 TO 500MB LAYER RH REMAINING BELOW 70 PERCENT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MOIST WITH THE 1000 TO 700MB LAYER RH
AT 70 TO 75 PERCENT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR UPWARDS TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AN OPEN WAVE MOVES INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE RIPPLES ASIDE TO THE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST INFLUX OF DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN OUR REGION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE 1000 TO 500RH SHOW VALUES OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT
AND HIGHER EVEN FURTHER WEST WHERE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION NEAR ZAPATA...STARR AND JIM HOGG COUNTY. THE CLOUD DECK
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY. INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY NE
AND E ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PROVIDING A MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE BETTER DYNAMIC STILL REMAINS FURTHER
NORTH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BUT
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO ENTER THE CWA.
AREAS THAT WILL BE FAVOR BY THIS ACTIVITY STILL REMAIN MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MID WEST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE CA COAST WHICH WILL CREATE A STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE
GRADIENT AS IT STRENGTHENS SO WILL THE SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE BUT WILL NOT BE AS DEEP
MOISTURE WHICH WILL MAINLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND COULD ENHANCE
A ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES
A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SIMILAR
PATTERN AS THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE. AS A RESULT ..INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT TO 2 TO 4 FEET
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH BUT WILL STILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INLAND
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
KEEPING A MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE SEAS WILL BUILD CLOSE TO 6 FEET LATE TUESDAY DUE
TO THE LONG SE FETCH AND INCREASE IN WINDS. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64



000
FXUS64 KBRO 030528 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SKY COVER REMAIN CLEAR AREAWIDE CURRENTLY...BUT IR
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUD BANK BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST SPREADING
NORTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
AFTER SUNRISE CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15G20KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE OF TAFS.
ENOUGH WIND SHOULD REMAIN OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW ONLY FOR THE LIGHTEST
OF FOG. CEILINGS WERE REDUCED 1K FEET AND INITIATED ABOUT TWO
HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AND SURFACE WINDS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE BREEZY THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
OVERALL...MVFR TONIGHT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
AS WELL WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS...WEST
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 20 TO 25
KTS AT 925MB.

TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING IF WINDS DROP LOW
ENOUGH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
RETURNED MOISTURE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
REESTABLISHED...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE GONE AND REPLACED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LEE TROUGHING AND THE MIXING DOWN OF
WINDS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. A
FEW MORE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH 1000 TO 500MB LAYER RH REMAINING BELOW 70 PERCENT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MOIST WITH THE 1000 TO 700MB LAYER RH
AT 70 TO 75 PERCENT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR UPWARDS TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AN OPEN WAVE MOVES INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE RIPPLES ASIDE TO THE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST INFLUX OF DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN OUR REGION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE 1000 TO 500RH SHOW VALUES OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT
AND HIGHER EVEN FURTHER WEST WHERE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION NEAR ZAPATA...STARR AND JIM HOGG COUNTY. THE CLOUD DECK
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY. INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY NE
AND E ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PROVIDING A MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE BETTER DYNAMIC STILL REMAINS FURTHER
NORTH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BUT
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO ENTER THE CWA.
AREAS THAT WILL BE FAVOR BY THIS ACTIVITY STILL REMAIN MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MID WEST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE CA COAST WHICH WILL CREATE A STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE
GRADIENT AS IT STRENGTHENS SO WILL THE SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE BUT WILL NOT BE AS DEEP
MOISTURE WHICH WILL MAINLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND COULD ENHANCE
A ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES
A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SIMILAR
PATTERN AS THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE. AS A RESULT ..INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT TO 2 TO 4 FEET
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH BUT WILL STILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INLAND
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
KEEPING A MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE SEAS WILL BUILD CLOSE TO 6 FEET LATE TUESDAY DUE
TO THE LONG SE FETCH AND INCREASE IN WINDS. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64




000
FXUS64 KMAF 030524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Moderate SE winds overnight then
gusty Sunday afternoon. Expecting some isolated thunderstorms late
afternoon but confidence in specific location/timing is low attm to
mention in current TAF.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening
hours.

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as well...in excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 030524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Moderate SE winds overnight then
gusty Sunday afternoon. Expecting some isolated thunderstorms late
afternoon but confidence in specific location/timing is low attm to
mention in current TAF.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening
hours.

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as well...in excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 030524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Moderate SE winds overnight then
gusty Sunday afternoon. Expecting some isolated thunderstorms late
afternoon but confidence in specific location/timing is low attm to
mention in current TAF.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening
hours.

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as well...in excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 030524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Moderate SE winds overnight then
gusty Sunday afternoon. Expecting some isolated thunderstorms late
afternoon but confidence in specific location/timing is low attm to
mention in current TAF.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening
hours.

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as well...in excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KLUB 030450 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT APPROACH KLBB AND KPVW BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THROUGH TOMORROW FOR LATER TAF
CYCLES.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
FLATTENING UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY HAS STREAMED IN SCT-BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE CWA PER 20Z METARS...COURTESY OF SFC LEE
TROUGHING PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS BREEZY S-
SW/DOWNSLOPE SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS/. WEAK
EMBEDDED PULSES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...ALONG WITH
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ONCE AGAIN
FIRING UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF ERN NM. 15-20 KTS OF W-
SW MEAN FLOW COULD PERHAPS ENCOURAGE A FEW LINGERING STORMS TO
NEAR/MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER SUGGESTS A VERY LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA SHOWERS AND/OR A BRIEF WIND
GUST BEING THE RULE. IF NONE OF THOSE INSTANCES TAKE PLACE...CLOUD
DEBRIS FILTERING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT...BUT IT WILL
NOT BE NON-EXISTENT AS INDICTED BY MOS GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS HOLDING
AOA 10-15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS AN UA PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BE NEARING SRN CALI/NRN BAJA BY THE AFTN. UA RIDGING WILL
BE SLIDING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL. AS SUCH...SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN WHILST
SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES WRN SOUTH
PLAINS...THEREBY DRAGGING A DRYLINE ONTO THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS BY
LATE AFTN. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEAR TO BE
ADEQUATE...GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT CI ACROSS THE TX/NM
BORDER AND THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE SAID TIME. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED...THOUGH BETTER MOISTENING IS NOTED IN
THE MID LEVELS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. CIN IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
THE TX/NM BORDER BY LATE AFTN...WITH CIN INCREASING EWRD. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH-BASED...MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG /AND WEAK SHEAR/ WILL EXIST WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE STORMS TO
WANE AS IT SHIFTS EAST GIVEN GREATER CIN THERE...THUS LOCALES ON THE
CAPROCK ARE MOST PREFERRED FOR BEST POPS. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ AND SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS...TEMPS WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE NORM ON SUNDAY /MIDDLE
80S/. /29

LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE BY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY PRECEDED
BY INITIAL DISTURBANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH MOISTURE
DEEPENING. INITIAL DISTURBANCES SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN ZONES WITH
BEST CHANCES AND RAINFALL TOTALS...THOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA IT SHOULD SPREAD HIGH
PROBABILITIES AREA-WIDE WITH BETTER TOTALS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
AS WELL.

UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD UNWIND A BIT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
STILL WILL LAY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. AND BEFORE WE HAVE TIME TO
TAKE MUCH OF A BREAK YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. DETAILS IN THE THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL RUNS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LATEST SUPERBLEND TRENDS TO RETAIN CHANCES FAVORING
THE EASTERN HALF OR TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.

STILL NOT MUCH CLARITY REGARDING SEVERE THREAT. THE PATTERN EARLY
IN THE WEEK ANALOGS TO A WELL-KNOWN THREAT...BUT OTHER INGREDIENTS
STILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER. SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD
WHILE MOISTURE MAY BE TOO ABUNDANT AT TIMES...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...
TO DEVELOP DISCRETE CELLS. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
THREAT CENTERED TUESDAY FOR NOW./05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  53  85  53 /  10  10  30  30
TULIA         83  55  84  57 /   0  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     82  54  84  57 /   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     84  54  85  58 /   0  10  20  40
LUBBOCK       84  55  86  60 /   0  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   84  54  85  57 /   0   0  20  30
BROWNFIELD    85  55  85  59 /   0   0  20  30
CHILDRESS     85  58  86  60 /   0  10   0  10
SPUR          84  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     85  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/



000
FXUS64 KLUB 030450 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT APPROACH KLBB AND KPVW BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THROUGH TOMORROW FOR LATER TAF
CYCLES.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
FLATTENING UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY HAS STREAMED IN SCT-BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE CWA PER 20Z METARS...COURTESY OF SFC LEE
TROUGHING PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS BREEZY S-
SW/DOWNSLOPE SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS/. WEAK
EMBEDDED PULSES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...ALONG WITH
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ONCE AGAIN
FIRING UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF ERN NM. 15-20 KTS OF W-
SW MEAN FLOW COULD PERHAPS ENCOURAGE A FEW LINGERING STORMS TO
NEAR/MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER SUGGESTS A VERY LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA SHOWERS AND/OR A BRIEF WIND
GUST BEING THE RULE. IF NONE OF THOSE INSTANCES TAKE PLACE...CLOUD
DEBRIS FILTERING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT...BUT IT WILL
NOT BE NON-EXISTENT AS INDICTED BY MOS GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS HOLDING
AOA 10-15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS AN UA PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BE NEARING SRN CALI/NRN BAJA BY THE AFTN. UA RIDGING WILL
BE SLIDING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL. AS SUCH...SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN WHILST
SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES WRN SOUTH
PLAINS...THEREBY DRAGGING A DRYLINE ONTO THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS BY
LATE AFTN. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEAR TO BE
ADEQUATE...GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT CI ACROSS THE TX/NM
BORDER AND THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE SAID TIME. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED...THOUGH BETTER MOISTENING IS NOTED IN
THE MID LEVELS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. CIN IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
THE TX/NM BORDER BY LATE AFTN...WITH CIN INCREASING EWRD. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH-BASED...MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG /AND WEAK SHEAR/ WILL EXIST WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE STORMS TO
WANE AS IT SHIFTS EAST GIVEN GREATER CIN THERE...THUS LOCALES ON THE
CAPROCK ARE MOST PREFERRED FOR BEST POPS. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ AND SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS...TEMPS WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE NORM ON SUNDAY /MIDDLE
80S/. /29

LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE BY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY PRECEDED
BY INITIAL DISTURBANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH MOISTURE
DEEPENING. INITIAL DISTURBANCES SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN ZONES WITH
BEST CHANCES AND RAINFALL TOTALS...THOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA IT SHOULD SPREAD HIGH
PROBABILITIES AREA-WIDE WITH BETTER TOTALS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
AS WELL.

UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD UNWIND A BIT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
STILL WILL LAY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. AND BEFORE WE HAVE TIME TO
TAKE MUCH OF A BREAK YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. DETAILS IN THE THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL RUNS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LATEST SUPERBLEND TRENDS TO RETAIN CHANCES FAVORING
THE EASTERN HALF OR TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.

STILL NOT MUCH CLARITY REGARDING SEVERE THREAT. THE PATTERN EARLY
IN THE WEEK ANALOGS TO A WELL-KNOWN THREAT...BUT OTHER INGREDIENTS
STILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER. SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD
WHILE MOISTURE MAY BE TOO ABUNDANT AT TIMES...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...
TO DEVELOP DISCRETE CELLS. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
THREAT CENTERED TUESDAY FOR NOW./05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  53  85  53 /  10  10  30  30
TULIA         83  55  84  57 /   0  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     82  54  84  57 /   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     84  54  85  58 /   0  10  20  40
LUBBOCK       84  55  86  60 /   0  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   84  54  85  57 /   0   0  20  30
BROWNFIELD    85  55  85  59 /   0   0  20  30
CHILDRESS     85  58  86  60 /   0  10   0  10
SPUR          84  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     85  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/




000
FXUS64 KLUB 030450 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT APPROACH KLBB AND KPVW BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THROUGH TOMORROW FOR LATER TAF
CYCLES.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
FLATTENING UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY HAS STREAMED IN SCT-BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE CWA PER 20Z METARS...COURTESY OF SFC LEE
TROUGHING PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS BREEZY S-
SW/DOWNSLOPE SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS/. WEAK
EMBEDDED PULSES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...ALONG WITH
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ONCE AGAIN
FIRING UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF ERN NM. 15-20 KTS OF W-
SW MEAN FLOW COULD PERHAPS ENCOURAGE A FEW LINGERING STORMS TO
NEAR/MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER SUGGESTS A VERY LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA SHOWERS AND/OR A BRIEF WIND
GUST BEING THE RULE. IF NONE OF THOSE INSTANCES TAKE PLACE...CLOUD
DEBRIS FILTERING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT...BUT IT WILL
NOT BE NON-EXISTENT AS INDICTED BY MOS GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS HOLDING
AOA 10-15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS AN UA PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BE NEARING SRN CALI/NRN BAJA BY THE AFTN. UA RIDGING WILL
BE SLIDING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL. AS SUCH...SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN WHILST
SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES WRN SOUTH
PLAINS...THEREBY DRAGGING A DRYLINE ONTO THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS BY
LATE AFTN. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEAR TO BE
ADEQUATE...GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT CI ACROSS THE TX/NM
BORDER AND THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE SAID TIME. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED...THOUGH BETTER MOISTENING IS NOTED IN
THE MID LEVELS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. CIN IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
THE TX/NM BORDER BY LATE AFTN...WITH CIN INCREASING EWRD. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH-BASED...MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG /AND WEAK SHEAR/ WILL EXIST WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE STORMS TO
WANE AS IT SHIFTS EAST GIVEN GREATER CIN THERE...THUS LOCALES ON THE
CAPROCK ARE MOST PREFERRED FOR BEST POPS. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ AND SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS...TEMPS WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE NORM ON SUNDAY /MIDDLE
80S/. /29

LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE BY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY PRECEDED
BY INITIAL DISTURBANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH MOISTURE
DEEPENING. INITIAL DISTURBANCES SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN ZONES WITH
BEST CHANCES AND RAINFALL TOTALS...THOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA IT SHOULD SPREAD HIGH
PROBABILITIES AREA-WIDE WITH BETTER TOTALS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
AS WELL.

UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD UNWIND A BIT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
STILL WILL LAY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. AND BEFORE WE HAVE TIME TO
TAKE MUCH OF A BREAK YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. DETAILS IN THE THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL RUNS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LATEST SUPERBLEND TRENDS TO RETAIN CHANCES FAVORING
THE EASTERN HALF OR TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.

STILL NOT MUCH CLARITY REGARDING SEVERE THREAT. THE PATTERN EARLY
IN THE WEEK ANALOGS TO A WELL-KNOWN THREAT...BUT OTHER INGREDIENTS
STILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER. SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD
WHILE MOISTURE MAY BE TOO ABUNDANT AT TIMES...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...
TO DEVELOP DISCRETE CELLS. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
THREAT CENTERED TUESDAY FOR NOW./05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  53  85  53 /  10  10  30  30
TULIA         83  55  84  57 /   0  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     82  54  84  57 /   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     84  54  85  58 /   0  10  20  40
LUBBOCK       84  55  86  60 /   0  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   84  54  85  57 /   0   0  20  30
BROWNFIELD    85  55  85  59 /   0   0  20  30
CHILDRESS     85  58  86  60 /   0  10   0  10
SPUR          84  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     85  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/



000
FXUS64 KLUB 030450 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT APPROACH KLBB AND KPVW BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THROUGH TOMORROW FOR LATER TAF
CYCLES.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
FLATTENING UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY HAS STREAMED IN SCT-BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE CWA PER 20Z METARS...COURTESY OF SFC LEE
TROUGHING PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS BREEZY S-
SW/DOWNSLOPE SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS/. WEAK
EMBEDDED PULSES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...ALONG WITH
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ONCE AGAIN
FIRING UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF ERN NM. 15-20 KTS OF W-
SW MEAN FLOW COULD PERHAPS ENCOURAGE A FEW LINGERING STORMS TO
NEAR/MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER SUGGESTS A VERY LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA SHOWERS AND/OR A BRIEF WIND
GUST BEING THE RULE. IF NONE OF THOSE INSTANCES TAKE PLACE...CLOUD
DEBRIS FILTERING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT...BUT IT WILL
NOT BE NON-EXISTENT AS INDICTED BY MOS GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS HOLDING
AOA 10-15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS AN UA PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BE NEARING SRN CALI/NRN BAJA BY THE AFTN. UA RIDGING WILL
BE SLIDING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL. AS SUCH...SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN WHILST
SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES WRN SOUTH
PLAINS...THEREBY DRAGGING A DRYLINE ONTO THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS BY
LATE AFTN. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEAR TO BE
ADEQUATE...GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT CI ACROSS THE TX/NM
BORDER AND THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE SAID TIME. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED...THOUGH BETTER MOISTENING IS NOTED IN
THE MID LEVELS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. CIN IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
THE TX/NM BORDER BY LATE AFTN...WITH CIN INCREASING EWRD. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH-BASED...MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG /AND WEAK SHEAR/ WILL EXIST WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE STORMS TO
WANE AS IT SHIFTS EAST GIVEN GREATER CIN THERE...THUS LOCALES ON THE
CAPROCK ARE MOST PREFERRED FOR BEST POPS. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ AND SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS...TEMPS WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE NORM ON SUNDAY /MIDDLE
80S/. /29

LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE BY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY PRECEDED
BY INITIAL DISTURBANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH MOISTURE
DEEPENING. INITIAL DISTURBANCES SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN ZONES WITH
BEST CHANCES AND RAINFALL TOTALS...THOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA IT SHOULD SPREAD HIGH
PROBABILITIES AREA-WIDE WITH BETTER TOTALS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
AS WELL.

UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD UNWIND A BIT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
STILL WILL LAY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. AND BEFORE WE HAVE TIME TO
TAKE MUCH OF A BREAK YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. DETAILS IN THE THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL RUNS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LATEST SUPERBLEND TRENDS TO RETAIN CHANCES FAVORING
THE EASTERN HALF OR TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.

STILL NOT MUCH CLARITY REGARDING SEVERE THREAT. THE PATTERN EARLY
IN THE WEEK ANALOGS TO A WELL-KNOWN THREAT...BUT OTHER INGREDIENTS
STILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER. SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD
WHILE MOISTURE MAY BE TOO ABUNDANT AT TIMES...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...
TO DEVELOP DISCRETE CELLS. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
THREAT CENTERED TUESDAY FOR NOW./05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  53  85  53 /  10  10  30  30
TULIA         83  55  84  57 /   0  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     82  54  84  57 /   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     84  54  85  58 /   0  10  20  40
LUBBOCK       84  55  86  60 /   0  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   84  54  85  57 /   0   0  20  30
BROWNFIELD    85  55  85  59 /   0   0  20  30
CHILDRESS     85  58  86  60 /   0  10   0  10
SPUR          84  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     85  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030449
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION TEMPO MIFG FOR CXO/SGR/LBX TERMINALS. EXPECT
MORE CU TOMORROW AND LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAYS AS MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND MORESO ON SUNDAY. MIGHT
EVEN SEE A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE GULF WATERS NEARSHORE TOMORROW
MORNING BUT VERY LOW COVERAGE AND NOT EVEN WORTHY OF A VCSH AT GLS
YET. A LITTLE CIRRUS COULD MAKE IT TO THE NORTHERN SITES AS WELL
BUT GIVEN THE CU NOT WORTH ADDING ANOTHER LINE TO THE TAF IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE STILL IN THE 25-30KT RANGE
SO FAR THIS EVENING...THINKING THAT ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE VERY PATCHY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. NOT
GOING WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FORECAST FOR MOST SITES. 2MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE 1015-1017MB
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SE
OF GLS AND 1003MB LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND. S-SE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS EVENING GRADUALLY BACKING TOWARD MORNING FOR IAH-LBX TERMINALS.
WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE SHALLOW FOG/MIFG AT CXO/LBX FOR A FEW
HOURS 10-12Z. DAYTIME HEATING WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE WILL BRING
A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH CU DEVELOPING AND LIFTING THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  62  83  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  63  83  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  82  70  81  72 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45



000
FXUS64 KHGX 030449
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION TEMPO MIFG FOR CXO/SGR/LBX TERMINALS. EXPECT
MORE CU TOMORROW AND LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAYS AS MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND MORESO ON SUNDAY. MIGHT
EVEN SEE A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE GULF WATERS NEARSHORE TOMORROW
MORNING BUT VERY LOW COVERAGE AND NOT EVEN WORTHY OF A VCSH AT GLS
YET. A LITTLE CIRRUS COULD MAKE IT TO THE NORTHERN SITES AS WELL
BUT GIVEN THE CU NOT WORTH ADDING ANOTHER LINE TO THE TAF IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE STILL IN THE 25-30KT RANGE
SO FAR THIS EVENING...THINKING THAT ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE VERY PATCHY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. NOT
GOING WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FORECAST FOR MOST SITES. 2MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE 1015-1017MB
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SE
OF GLS AND 1003MB LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND. S-SE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS EVENING GRADUALLY BACKING TOWARD MORNING FOR IAH-LBX TERMINALS.
WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE SHALLOW FOG/MIFG AT CXO/LBX FOR A FEW
HOURS 10-12Z. DAYTIME HEATING WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE WILL BRING
A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH CU DEVELOPING AND LIFTING THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  62  83  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  63  83  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  82  70  81  72 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030449
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION TEMPO MIFG FOR CXO/SGR/LBX TERMINALS. EXPECT
MORE CU TOMORROW AND LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAYS AS MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND MORESO ON SUNDAY. MIGHT
EVEN SEE A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE GULF WATERS NEARSHORE TOMORROW
MORNING BUT VERY LOW COVERAGE AND NOT EVEN WORTHY OF A VCSH AT GLS
YET. A LITTLE CIRRUS COULD MAKE IT TO THE NORTHERN SITES AS WELL
BUT GIVEN THE CU NOT WORTH ADDING ANOTHER LINE TO THE TAF IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE STILL IN THE 25-30KT RANGE
SO FAR THIS EVENING...THINKING THAT ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE VERY PATCHY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. NOT
GOING WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FORECAST FOR MOST SITES. 2MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE 1015-1017MB
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SE
OF GLS AND 1003MB LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND. S-SE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS EVENING GRADUALLY BACKING TOWARD MORNING FOR IAH-LBX TERMINALS.
WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE SHALLOW FOG/MIFG AT CXO/LBX FOR A FEW
HOURS 10-12Z. DAYTIME HEATING WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE WILL BRING
A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH CU DEVELOPING AND LIFTING THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  62  83  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  63  83  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  82  70  81  72 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45



000
FXUS64 KHGX 030449
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION TEMPO MIFG FOR CXO/SGR/LBX TERMINALS. EXPECT
MORE CU TOMORROW AND LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAYS AS MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND MORESO ON SUNDAY. MIGHT
EVEN SEE A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE GULF WATERS NEARSHORE TOMORROW
MORNING BUT VERY LOW COVERAGE AND NOT EVEN WORTHY OF A VCSH AT GLS
YET. A LITTLE CIRRUS COULD MAKE IT TO THE NORTHERN SITES AS WELL
BUT GIVEN THE CU NOT WORTH ADDING ANOTHER LINE TO THE TAF IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE STILL IN THE 25-30KT RANGE
SO FAR THIS EVENING...THINKING THAT ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE VERY PATCHY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. NOT
GOING WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FORECAST FOR MOST SITES. 2MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE 1015-1017MB
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SE
OF GLS AND 1003MB LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND. S-SE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS EVENING GRADUALLY BACKING TOWARD MORNING FOR IAH-LBX TERMINALS.
WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE SHALLOW FOG/MIFG AT CXO/LBX FOR A FEW
HOURS 10-12Z. DAYTIME HEATING WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE WILL BRING
A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH CU DEVELOPING AND LIFTING THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  62  83  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  63  83  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  82  70  81  72 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KFWD 030406 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z MONDAY. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE 11-14Z SUNDAY IN THE WACO
AREA...AND MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED BY 03Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY FROM CONVECTION THAT IS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY EVENING. AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF BKN050-070
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO
THE WACO AREA BY 03Z MONDAY...AND INTO THE METROPLEX AFTER 06Z
MONDAY.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEASONALLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
BRANCH JET. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE STATE ONE MORE DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOST STORM CHANCES
MONDAY AFERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...BUT ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE EXTREME WESTERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE BIGGER THREAT MAY COME FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE THE
GROUND IS NEAR SATURATION IN MANY LOCATIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.

THERE SHOULD BE PERIOD OF BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER....ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE MID WEEK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
LOW AND REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP NORTH TEXAS MOIST AND UNSETTLED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING LESS ACTIVE
WEATHER TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  83  64  84  64 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              57  82  63  83  64 /   5   5  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             60  80  59  84  60 /  10   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            58  82  62  83  59 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  61  82  58 /  10   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            63  83  64  84  63 /  10   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           59  83  64  82  61 /  10   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  63  84  64 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            58  81  62  82  63 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  61  82  62 /   5   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 030406 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z MONDAY. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE 11-14Z SUNDAY IN THE WACO
AREA...AND MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED BY 03Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY FROM CONVECTION THAT IS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY EVENING. AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF BKN050-070
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO
THE WACO AREA BY 03Z MONDAY...AND INTO THE METROPLEX AFTER 06Z
MONDAY.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEASONALLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
BRANCH JET. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE STATE ONE MORE DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOST STORM CHANCES
MONDAY AFERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...BUT ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE EXTREME WESTERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE BIGGER THREAT MAY COME FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE THE
GROUND IS NEAR SATURATION IN MANY LOCATIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.

THERE SHOULD BE PERIOD OF BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER....ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE MID WEEK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
LOW AND REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP NORTH TEXAS MOIST AND UNSETTLED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING LESS ACTIVE
WEATHER TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  83  64  84  64 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              57  82  63  83  64 /   5   5  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             60  80  59  84  60 /  10   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            58  82  62  83  59 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  61  82  58 /  10   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            63  83  64  84  63 /  10   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           59  83  64  82  61 /  10   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  63  84  64 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            58  81  62  82  63 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  61  82  62 /   5   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25



000
FXUS64 KFWD 030406 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z MONDAY. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE 11-14Z SUNDAY IN THE WACO
AREA...AND MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED BY 03Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY FROM CONVECTION THAT IS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY EVENING. AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF BKN050-070
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO
THE WACO AREA BY 03Z MONDAY...AND INTO THE METROPLEX AFTER 06Z
MONDAY.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEASONALLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
BRANCH JET. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE STATE ONE MORE DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOST STORM CHANCES
MONDAY AFERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...BUT ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE EXTREME WESTERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE BIGGER THREAT MAY COME FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE THE
GROUND IS NEAR SATURATION IN MANY LOCATIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.

THERE SHOULD BE PERIOD OF BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER....ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE MID WEEK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
LOW AND REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP NORTH TEXAS MOIST AND UNSETTLED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING LESS ACTIVE
WEATHER TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  83  64  84  64 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              57  82  63  83  64 /   5   5  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             60  80  59  84  60 /  10   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            58  82  62  83  59 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  61  82  58 /  10   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            63  83  64  84  63 /  10   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           59  83  64  82  61 /  10   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  63  84  64 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            58  81  62  82  63 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  61  82  62 /   5   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25




000
FXUS64 KSJT 030402
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1102 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop between 10z and 12z and result in
MVFR ceilings at KSOA and KJCT. VFR conditions are forecast to
return to all sites by mid to late morning Sunday. South winds of
5 to 10 knots overnight will increase to 8 to 14 knots by late
morning Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop across the Hill Country and affect
mainly KJCT and KSOA between 11z and 12z Sunday, resulting in MVFR
ceilings. VFR conditions will return to all sites by mid to late
morning. Winds will generally be south at 5 to 10 knots overnight,
increasing to 8 to 14 knots by late morning Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Quiet in the short term, before the main action starts next week.
Surface high pressure across the southeast US will shift even
farther east through Sunday. As the upper level trough moves onto
the West Coast by Sunday afternoon, lee trough will strengthen at
the surface. Pressure gradient will tighten and southerly winds will
begin to increase. This will keep overnight lows up tonight, with
temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees warmer than they were this
morning. Surface dewpoints are only in the mid 50s across much of
South Texas, so these increasing southerly winds will bring better
low level moisture to West Central Texas for Sunday, but not as
moist as it could be for the first week in May. That moisture will
wait til later in the week.

May see a little more cloud cover on Sunday, so although 850mb
temperatures climb about a degree C, we may see actual highs Sunday
afternoon near where they end up today.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night-Saturday)

Chances for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall and a few severe storms return Tuesday through Friday.
Could see some light rain showers on Monday as deep moisture returns
from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching upper level
disturbance from northern Mexico.

The best chance for rain should be on Tuesday and Tuesday night
as a strong upper level shortwave trough moves across the area.
With moderate CAPE values between 1500 and 2000J/KG, may see a
few storms produce large hail and damaging winds along with
locally heavy rainfall.

Look for chances of strong to severe thunderstorms to continue Wednesday
through Saturday along the dryline as the upper level flow pattern
continues from the southwest and surface based CAPE values
continue to increase. This flow pattern is favorable for periodic
upper level disturbances to track across West Central Texas,
triggering thunderstorms along the dryline or anytime during the
day or night. In these type of weather patterns, it can be
difficult to pinpoint timing. For this reason, continued chance
Pops through much of the period. Because of increasing gulf
moisture, southeast breezes and increasing cloud cover, look for
high temperatures to remain mostly in the lower 80s this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  83  62  80  62 /   0   5  10  10  30
San Angelo  61  86  63  81  63 /   0   5  10  10  40
Junction  59  81  64  79  63 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 030402
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1102 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop between 10z and 12z and result in
MVFR ceilings at KSOA and KJCT. VFR conditions are forecast to
return to all sites by mid to late morning Sunday. South winds of
5 to 10 knots overnight will increase to 8 to 14 knots by late
morning Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop across the Hill Country and affect
mainly KJCT and KSOA between 11z and 12z Sunday, resulting in MVFR
ceilings. VFR conditions will return to all sites by mid to late
morning. Winds will generally be south at 5 to 10 knots overnight,
increasing to 8 to 14 knots by late morning Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Quiet in the short term, before the main action starts next week.
Surface high pressure across the southeast US will shift even
farther east through Sunday. As the upper level trough moves onto
the West Coast by Sunday afternoon, lee trough will strengthen at
the surface. Pressure gradient will tighten and southerly winds will
begin to increase. This will keep overnight lows up tonight, with
temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees warmer than they were this
morning. Surface dewpoints are only in the mid 50s across much of
South Texas, so these increasing southerly winds will bring better
low level moisture to West Central Texas for Sunday, but not as
moist as it could be for the first week in May. That moisture will
wait til later in the week.

May see a little more cloud cover on Sunday, so although 850mb
temperatures climb about a degree C, we may see actual highs Sunday
afternoon near where they end up today.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night-Saturday)

Chances for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall and a few severe storms return Tuesday through Friday.
Could see some light rain showers on Monday as deep moisture returns
from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching upper level
disturbance from northern Mexico.

The best chance for rain should be on Tuesday and Tuesday night
as a strong upper level shortwave trough moves across the area.
With moderate CAPE values between 1500 and 2000J/KG, may see a
few storms produce large hail and damaging winds along with
locally heavy rainfall.

Look for chances of strong to severe thunderstorms to continue Wednesday
through Saturday along the dryline as the upper level flow pattern
continues from the southwest and surface based CAPE values
continue to increase. This flow pattern is favorable for periodic
upper level disturbances to track across West Central Texas,
triggering thunderstorms along the dryline or anytime during the
day or night. In these type of weather patterns, it can be
difficult to pinpoint timing. For this reason, continued chance
Pops through much of the period. Because of increasing gulf
moisture, southeast breezes and increasing cloud cover, look for
high temperatures to remain mostly in the lower 80s this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  83  62  80  62 /   0   5  10  10  30
San Angelo  61  86  63  81  63 /   0   5  10  10  40
Junction  59  81  64  79  63 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KAMA 030352 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY IN THIS FCST PERIOD...AND WILL
LIKELY NOT IMPACT ANY TERMINAL SITE. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO OMIT TSTMS
FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE TERMINAL
SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET...THEN INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER WRN AND CNTRL PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
TERMINAL SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AS RIDGE-RIDING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPPORTS
CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CENTRAL CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE BECOMING ALIGNED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOK TO OFFER BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOAKING RAINS.  DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN MOISTENING REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  LOW POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GULF REMAINS OPEN TO THIS AREA.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST FUELS WILL
LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN FUELS...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 030352 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY IN THIS FCST PERIOD...AND WILL
LIKELY NOT IMPACT ANY TERMINAL SITE. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO OMIT TSTMS
FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE TERMINAL
SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET...THEN INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER WRN AND CNTRL PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
TERMINAL SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AS RIDGE-RIDING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPPORTS
CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CENTRAL CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE BECOMING ALIGNED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOK TO OFFER BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOAKING RAINS.  DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN MOISTENING REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  LOW POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GULF REMAINS OPEN TO THIS AREA.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST FUELS WILL
LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN FUELS...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 030352 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY IN THIS FCST PERIOD...AND WILL
LIKELY NOT IMPACT ANY TERMINAL SITE. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO OMIT TSTMS
FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE TERMINAL
SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET...THEN INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER WRN AND CNTRL PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
TERMINAL SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AS RIDGE-RIDING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPPORTS
CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CENTRAL CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE BECOMING ALIGNED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOK TO OFFER BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOAKING RAINS.  DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN MOISTENING REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  LOW POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GULF REMAINS OPEN TO THIS AREA.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST FUELS WILL
LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN FUELS...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 030352 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY IN THIS FCST PERIOD...AND WILL
LIKELY NOT IMPACT ANY TERMINAL SITE. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO OMIT TSTMS
FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE TERMINAL
SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET...THEN INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER WRN AND CNTRL PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
TERMINAL SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AS RIDGE-RIDING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPPORTS
CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CENTRAL CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE BECOMING ALIGNED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOK TO OFFER BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOAKING RAINS.  DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN MOISTENING REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  LOW POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GULF REMAINS OPEN TO THIS AREA.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST FUELS WILL
LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN FUELS...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 030352 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY IN THIS FCST PERIOD...AND WILL
LIKELY NOT IMPACT ANY TERMINAL SITE. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO OMIT TSTMS
FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE TERMINAL
SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET...THEN INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER WRN AND CNTRL PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
TERMINAL SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AS RIDGE-RIDING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPPORTS
CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CENTRAL CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE BECOMING ALIGNED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOK TO OFFER BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOAKING RAINS.  DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN MOISTENING REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  LOW POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GULF REMAINS OPEN TO THIS AREA.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST FUELS WILL
LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN FUELS...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 030352 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY IN THIS FCST PERIOD...AND WILL
LIKELY NOT IMPACT ANY TERMINAL SITE. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO OMIT TSTMS
FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE TERMINAL
SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET...THEN INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER WRN AND CNTRL PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
TERMINAL SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AS RIDGE-RIDING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPPORTS
CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CENTRAL CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE BECOMING ALIGNED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOK TO OFFER BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOAKING RAINS.  DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN MOISTENING REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  LOW POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GULF REMAINS OPEN TO THIS AREA.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST FUELS WILL
LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN FUELS...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHGX 030207
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
907 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE STILL IN THE 25-30KT RANGE
SO FAR THIS EVENING...THINKING THAT ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE VERY PATCHY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. NOT
GOING WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FORECAST FOR MOST SITES. 2MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE 1015-1017MB
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SE
OF GLS AND 1003MB LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND. S-SE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS EVENING GRADUALLY BACKING TOWARD MORNING FOR IAH-LBX TERMINALS.
WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE SHALLOW FOG/MIFG AT CXO/LBX FOR A FEW
HOURS 10-12Z. DAYTIME HEATING WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE WILL BRING
A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH CU DEVELOPING AND LIFTING THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  62  83  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  63  83  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  82  70  81  72 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 030207
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
907 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE STILL IN THE 25-30KT RANGE
SO FAR THIS EVENING...THINKING THAT ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE VERY PATCHY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. NOT
GOING WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FORECAST FOR MOST SITES. 2MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE 1015-1017MB
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SE
OF GLS AND 1003MB LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND. S-SE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS EVENING GRADUALLY BACKING TOWARD MORNING FOR IAH-LBX TERMINALS.
WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE SHALLOW FOG/MIFG AT CXO/LBX FOR A FEW
HOURS 10-12Z. DAYTIME HEATING WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE WILL BRING
A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH CU DEVELOPING AND LIFTING THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  62  83  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  63  83  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  82  70  81  72 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 030207
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
907 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE STILL IN THE 25-30KT RANGE
SO FAR THIS EVENING...THINKING THAT ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE VERY PATCHY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. NOT
GOING WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FORECAST FOR MOST SITES. 2MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE 1015-1017MB
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SE
OF GLS AND 1003MB LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND. S-SE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS EVENING GRADUALLY BACKING TOWARD MORNING FOR IAH-LBX TERMINALS.
WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE SHALLOW FOG/MIFG AT CXO/LBX FOR A FEW
HOURS 10-12Z. DAYTIME HEATING WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE WILL BRING
A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH CU DEVELOPING AND LIFTING THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  62  83  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  63  83  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  82  70  81  72 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 030207
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
907 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GIVEN THAT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE STILL IN THE 25-30KT RANGE
SO FAR THIS EVENING...THINKING THAT ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE VERY PATCHY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. NOT
GOING WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FORECAST FOR MOST SITES. 2MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE 1015-1017MB
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SE
OF GLS AND 1003MB LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND. S-SE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS EVENING GRADUALLY BACKING TOWARD MORNING FOR IAH-LBX TERMINALS.
WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE SHALLOW FOG/MIFG AT CXO/LBX FOR A FEW
HOURS 10-12Z. DAYTIME HEATING WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE WILL BRING
A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH CU DEVELOPING AND LIFTING THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  62  83  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  63  83  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  82  70  81  72 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 030004
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
704 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with a moderate southerly to southeasterly wind
will continue. Thunderstorms will be possible late Sunday
afternoon across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Will keep out of TAFs
for now due to expected isolated nature.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening
hours.

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as well...in excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 030004
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
704 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with a moderate southerly to southeasterly wind
will continue. Thunderstorms will be possible late Sunday
afternoon across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Will keep out of TAFs
for now due to expected isolated nature.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening
hours.

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as well...in excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 030004
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
704 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with a moderate southerly to southeasterly wind
will continue. Thunderstorms will be possible late Sunday
afternoon across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Will keep out of TAFs
for now due to expected isolated nature.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening
hours.

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as well...in excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 030004
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
704 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with a moderate southerly to southeasterly wind
will continue. Thunderstorms will be possible late Sunday
afternoon across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Will keep out of TAFs
for now due to expected isolated nature.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening
hours.

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as well...in excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 030004
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
704 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with a moderate southerly to southeasterly wind
will continue. Thunderstorms will be possible late Sunday
afternoon across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Will keep out of TAFs
for now due to expected isolated nature.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening
hours.

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as well...in excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KLUB 030000 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
700 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
FLATTENING UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY HAS STREAMED IN SCT-BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE CWA PER 20Z METARS...COURTESY OF SFC LEE
TROUGHING PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS BREEZY S-
SW/DOWNSLOPE SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS/. WEAK
EMBEDDED PULSES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...ALONG WITH
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ONCE AGAIN
FIRING UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF ERN NM. 15-20 KTS OF W-
SW MEAN FLOW COULD PERHAPS ENCOURAGE A FEW LINGERING STORMS TO
NEAR/MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER SUGGESTS A VERY LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA SHOWERS AND/OR A BRIEF WIND
GUST BEING THE RULE. IF NONE OF THOSE INSTANCES TAKE PLACE...CLOUD
DEBRIS FILTERING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT...BUT IT WILL
NOT BE NON-EXISTENT AS INDICTED BY MOS GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS HOLDING
AOA 10-15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS AN UA PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BE NEARING SRN CALI/NRN BAJA BY THE AFTN. UA RIDGING WILL
BE SLIDING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL. AS SUCH...SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN WHILST
SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES WRN SOUTH
PLAINS...THEREBY DRAGGING A DRYLINE ONTO THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS BY
LATE AFTN. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEAR TO BE
ADEQUATE...GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT CI ACROSS THE TX/NM
BORDER AND THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE SAID TIME. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED...THOUGH BETTER MOISTENING IS NOTED IN
THE MID LEVELS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. CIN IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
THE TX/NM BORDER BY LATE AFTN...WITH CIN INCREASING EWRD. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH-BASED...MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG /AND WEAK SHEAR/ WILL EXIST WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE STORMS TO
WANE AS IT SHIFTS EAST GIVEN GREATER CIN THERE...THUS LOCALES ON THE
CAPROCK ARE MOST PREFERRED FOR BEST POPS. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ AND SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS...TEMPS WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE NORM ON SUNDAY /MIDDLE
80S/. /29

LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE BY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY PRECEDED
BY INITIAL DISTURBANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH MOISTURE
DEEPENING. INITIAL DISTURBANCES SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN ZONES WITH
BEST CHANCES AND RAINFALL TOTALS...THOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA IT SHOULD SPREAD HIGH
PROBABILITIES AREA-WIDE WITH BETTER TOTALS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
AS WELL.

UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD UNWIND A BIT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
STILL WILL LAY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. AND BEFORE WE HAVE TIME TO
TAKE MUCH OF A BREAK YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. DETAILS IN THE THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL RUNS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LATEST SUPERBLEND TRENDS TO RETAIN CHANCES FAVORING
THE EASTERN HALF OR TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.

STILL NOT MUCH CLARITY REGARDING SEVERE THREAT. THE PATTERN EARLY
IN THE WEEK ANALOGS TO A WELL-KNOWN THREAT...BUT OTHER INGREDIENTS
STILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER. SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD
WHILE MOISTURE MAY BE TOO ABUNDANT AT TIMES...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...
TO DEVELOP DISCRETE CELLS. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
THREAT CENTERED TUESDAY FOR NOW./05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  85  53  75 /  10  30  30  60
TULIA         55  84  57  76 /  10  10  20  50
PLAINVIEW     54  84  57  76 /  10  10  20  40
LEVELLAND     54  85  58  76 /  10  20  40  50
LUBBOCK       55  86  60  77 /  10  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   54  85  57  77 /   0  20  30  50
BROWNFIELD    55  85  59  77 /   0  20  30  50
CHILDRESS     58  86  60  79 /  10   0  10  20
SPUR          56  84  59  77 /   0   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     57  85  60  79 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 022357
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
657 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FORECAST FOR MOST SITES. 2MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE 1015-1017MB
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SE
OF GLS AND 1003MB LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND. S-SE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS EVENING GRADUALLY BACKING TOWARD MORNING FOR IAH-LBX TERMINALS.
WILL PROBABLY GET A LITTLE SHALLOW FOG/MIFG AT CXO/LBX FOR A FEW
HOURS 10-12Z. DAYTIME HEATING WITH STRONG CAP IN PLACE WILL BRING
A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH CU DEVELOPING AND LIFTING THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FOG WILL BE SHALLOW AND WILL
BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE TEXAS
TECH WRF GENERATES SOME SHOWERS ON SUN AFTN BUT THE GFS/NAM KEEP
PW VALUES BELOW AN INCH AND INDICATE SOME WEAK CAPPING NEAR 700 MB
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.6-1.7 INCHES AND A WEAK CAPPING
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY AFTN. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHRA/TSRA ON TUES AFTN/EVENING. CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PW AIR...FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND WEAK
CAPPING. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY BUT HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF MAY
NUDGE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO SHIFT THE PRECIP TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS AND
AWAY FROM SE TX. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THE GFS LOOKS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTAINS A DEEPER TROUGH AND FLATTER RIDGING OVER THE
GULF. THE CANADIAN LOOKS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SO LEANED
TOWARD THE GFS/CAN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR INTO THE REGION SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
RISE. 43

MARINE...
AFTER A DAY OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WINDS WILL COME
ONSHORE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY. EARLY
THROUGH MID WEEK`S NEAR SCEC LEVEL WINDS WILL BE GENERATED BY THE
TIGHTENED ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN U.S. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WESTERN PLAINS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
AVERAGE HIGHEST THIRD OF SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 4 TO 5
FEET NEARSHORE...6 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE...BY TUESDAY EVENING. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  62  83  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  63  83  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  82  70  81  72 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KEWX 022342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE REGION AND LOW CIGS WILL FORM BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND
11Z IN SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO MAKE IT
TO DRT AND CIGS MAY BE IN AND OUT. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP 14Z
TO 17Z. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR BY 17Z OR 18Z. SAT AND
AUS WILL SEE LOW CIGS EARLIER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY A SLOWLY
MODIFYING AIRMASS AND NO IMPACT HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ANOTHER COMFORTABLE SPRING DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S KEEPING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES LOW. RESIDUAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SE CONUS AND MID-LVL RIDGING IS AIDING IN
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SUBSIDENCE WITH THIN CUMULUS CLOUDS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION NEAR 6000 FT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING BUT GREATER MOISTURE FLOW WILL FINALLY COMMENCE
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PWATS WILL RISE FROM THE
SATELLITE DERIVED 0.6" CURRENTLY TO NEAR 1-1.3" ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE RETURN MAY SUPPORT
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE MORNING AND MORE CLOUD COVER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM SURFACE HEATING PROCESSES. STILL EXPECT A
DRY DAY TOMORROW WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING WEST
OF RIO GRANDE RIVER AS LOW-LVLS LOOK TO REMAIN TOO DRY EAST IN
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS FOR
HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS GIVEN THE MOISTURE INFLUX.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE FORM THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH REGION SITUATED UNDER STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS TO THE NORTH. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL IMPACT WEATHER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CURRENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL HAVE
SHIFTED EAST AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SMALL
IMPULSES AHEAD OF IT WILL BEGIN INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE
REGION. STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL RESULT...AIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH PWATS RISING INTO THE 1.5-1.6" THAT WILL
REMAIN IN TACT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MONDAY WILL FEATURE LOW END
30% RAIN AND TSTORM CHANCES WITH INCREASING VALUES GOING INTO
TUESDAY AS THE STRONGER PARENT LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THE BULK OF FORCING SHOULD GO NORTH BUT WITH ACTIVE
DRYLINE ACTIVITY RESULTING AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER SOME
HEIGHT FALLS...TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GREATEST
CHANCES IN THE HILL COUNTRY. INSTABILITY /1500 J/KG/ AND LAPSE
RATES />7C/KM/ DO NOT APPEAR OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT THIS TREND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE FIRST S/WV WILL PASS INTO THE PLAINS
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST H7-H5 FLOW OVER THE REGION AND AMPLE
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW END RAIN AND TSTORM
CHANCES IN THE 30-40% RANGE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY...GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS BUT EVENTUALLY TAKE MOST OF THE ENERGY INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH PLAINS. SOME RESIDUAL EFFECTS SIMILAR TO THE
FIRST WAVE MAY BE FELT BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NORTH OF
THE REGION. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  84  64  83  65 /   0  10  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  55  85  62  82  65 /   0  10  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  84  64  82  65 /   0  10  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            57  83  62  81  64 /   0  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  87  67  83  67 /   0  10  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  83  63  82  64 /   0  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  84  66  82  66 /   0  10  10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  83  64  82  65 /   0  10  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  85  63  83  65 /   0  10  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  86  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  86  66  83  67 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 022342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE REGION AND LOW CIGS WILL FORM BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND
11Z IN SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO MAKE IT
TO DRT AND CIGS MAY BE IN AND OUT. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP 14Z
TO 17Z. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR BY 17Z OR 18Z. SAT AND
AUS WILL SEE LOW CIGS EARLIER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY A SLOWLY
MODIFYING AIRMASS AND NO IMPACT HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ANOTHER COMFORTABLE SPRING DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S KEEPING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES LOW. RESIDUAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SE CONUS AND MID-LVL RIDGING IS AIDING IN
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SUBSIDENCE WITH THIN CUMULUS CLOUDS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION NEAR 6000 FT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING BUT GREATER MOISTURE FLOW WILL FINALLY COMMENCE
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PWATS WILL RISE FROM THE
SATELLITE DERIVED 0.6" CURRENTLY TO NEAR 1-1.3" ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE RETURN MAY SUPPORT
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE MORNING AND MORE CLOUD COVER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM SURFACE HEATING PROCESSES. STILL EXPECT A
DRY DAY TOMORROW WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING WEST
OF RIO GRANDE RIVER AS LOW-LVLS LOOK TO REMAIN TOO DRY EAST IN
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS FOR
HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS GIVEN THE MOISTURE INFLUX.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE FORM THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH REGION SITUATED UNDER STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS TO THE NORTH. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL IMPACT WEATHER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CURRENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL HAVE
SHIFTED EAST AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SMALL
IMPULSES AHEAD OF IT WILL BEGIN INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE
REGION. STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL RESULT...AIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH PWATS RISING INTO THE 1.5-1.6" THAT WILL
REMAIN IN TACT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MONDAY WILL FEATURE LOW END
30% RAIN AND TSTORM CHANCES WITH INCREASING VALUES GOING INTO
TUESDAY AS THE STRONGER PARENT LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THE BULK OF FORCING SHOULD GO NORTH BUT WITH ACTIVE
DRYLINE ACTIVITY RESULTING AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER SOME
HEIGHT FALLS...TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GREATEST
CHANCES IN THE HILL COUNTRY. INSTABILITY /1500 J/KG/ AND LAPSE
RATES />7C/KM/ DO NOT APPEAR OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT THIS TREND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE FIRST S/WV WILL PASS INTO THE PLAINS
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST H7-H5 FLOW OVER THE REGION AND AMPLE
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW END RAIN AND TSTORM
CHANCES IN THE 30-40% RANGE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY...GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS BUT EVENTUALLY TAKE MOST OF THE ENERGY INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH PLAINS. SOME RESIDUAL EFFECTS SIMILAR TO THE
FIRST WAVE MAY BE FELT BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NORTH OF
THE REGION. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  84  64  83  65 /   0  10  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  55  85  62  82  65 /   0  10  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  84  64  82  65 /   0  10  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            57  83  62  81  64 /   0  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  87  67  83  67 /   0  10  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  83  63  82  64 /   0  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  84  66  82  66 /   0  10  10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  83  64  82  65 /   0  10  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  85  63  83  65 /   0  10  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  86  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  86  66  83  67 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 022342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE REGION AND LOW CIGS WILL FORM BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND
11Z IN SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO MAKE IT
TO DRT AND CIGS MAY BE IN AND OUT. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP 14Z
TO 17Z. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR BY 17Z OR 18Z. SAT AND
AUS WILL SEE LOW CIGS EARLIER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY A SLOWLY
MODIFYING AIRMASS AND NO IMPACT HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ANOTHER COMFORTABLE SPRING DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S KEEPING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES LOW. RESIDUAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SE CONUS AND MID-LVL RIDGING IS AIDING IN
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SUBSIDENCE WITH THIN CUMULUS CLOUDS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION NEAR 6000 FT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING BUT GREATER MOISTURE FLOW WILL FINALLY COMMENCE
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PWATS WILL RISE FROM THE
SATELLITE DERIVED 0.6" CURRENTLY TO NEAR 1-1.3" ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE RETURN MAY SUPPORT
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE MORNING AND MORE CLOUD COVER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM SURFACE HEATING PROCESSES. STILL EXPECT A
DRY DAY TOMORROW WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING WEST
OF RIO GRANDE RIVER AS LOW-LVLS LOOK TO REMAIN TOO DRY EAST IN
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS FOR
HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS GIVEN THE MOISTURE INFLUX.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE FORM THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH REGION SITUATED UNDER STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS TO THE NORTH. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL IMPACT WEATHER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CURRENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL HAVE
SHIFTED EAST AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SMALL
IMPULSES AHEAD OF IT WILL BEGIN INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE
REGION. STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL RESULT...AIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH PWATS RISING INTO THE 1.5-1.6" THAT WILL
REMAIN IN TACT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MONDAY WILL FEATURE LOW END
30% RAIN AND TSTORM CHANCES WITH INCREASING VALUES GOING INTO
TUESDAY AS THE STRONGER PARENT LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THE BULK OF FORCING SHOULD GO NORTH BUT WITH ACTIVE
DRYLINE ACTIVITY RESULTING AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER SOME
HEIGHT FALLS...TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GREATEST
CHANCES IN THE HILL COUNTRY. INSTABILITY /1500 J/KG/ AND LAPSE
RATES />7C/KM/ DO NOT APPEAR OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT THIS TREND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE FIRST S/WV WILL PASS INTO THE PLAINS
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST H7-H5 FLOW OVER THE REGION AND AMPLE
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW END RAIN AND TSTORM
CHANCES IN THE 30-40% RANGE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY...GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS BUT EVENTUALLY TAKE MOST OF THE ENERGY INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH PLAINS. SOME RESIDUAL EFFECTS SIMILAR TO THE
FIRST WAVE MAY BE FELT BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NORTH OF
THE REGION. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  84  64  83  65 /   0  10  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  55  85  62  82  65 /   0  10  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  84  64  82  65 /   0  10  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            57  83  62  81  64 /   0  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  87  67  83  67 /   0  10  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  83  63  82  64 /   0  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  84  66  82  66 /   0  10  10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  83  64  82  65 /   0  10  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  85  63  83  65 /   0  10  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  86  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  86  66  83  67 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 022342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. DEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE REGION AND LOW CIGS WILL FORM BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND
11Z IN SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO MAKE IT
TO DRT AND CIGS MAY BE IN AND OUT. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP 14Z
TO 17Z. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR BY 17Z OR 18Z. SAT AND
AUS WILL SEE LOW CIGS EARLIER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY A SLOWLY
MODIFYING AIRMASS AND NO IMPACT HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ANOTHER COMFORTABLE SPRING DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S KEEPING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES LOW. RESIDUAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SE CONUS AND MID-LVL RIDGING IS AIDING IN
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SUBSIDENCE WITH THIN CUMULUS CLOUDS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION NEAR 6000 FT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING BUT GREATER MOISTURE FLOW WILL FINALLY COMMENCE
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PWATS WILL RISE FROM THE
SATELLITE DERIVED 0.6" CURRENTLY TO NEAR 1-1.3" ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE RETURN MAY SUPPORT
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE MORNING AND MORE CLOUD COVER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM SURFACE HEATING PROCESSES. STILL EXPECT A
DRY DAY TOMORROW WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING WEST
OF RIO GRANDE RIVER AS LOW-LVLS LOOK TO REMAIN TOO DRY EAST IN
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS FOR
HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS GIVEN THE MOISTURE INFLUX.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE FORM THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH REGION SITUATED UNDER STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS TO THE NORTH. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL IMPACT WEATHER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CURRENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL HAVE
SHIFTED EAST AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SMALL
IMPULSES AHEAD OF IT WILL BEGIN INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE
REGION. STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL RESULT...AIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH PWATS RISING INTO THE 1.5-1.6" THAT WILL
REMAIN IN TACT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MONDAY WILL FEATURE LOW END
30% RAIN AND TSTORM CHANCES WITH INCREASING VALUES GOING INTO
TUESDAY AS THE STRONGER PARENT LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THE BULK OF FORCING SHOULD GO NORTH BUT WITH ACTIVE
DRYLINE ACTIVITY RESULTING AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER SOME
HEIGHT FALLS...TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GREATEST
CHANCES IN THE HILL COUNTRY. INSTABILITY /1500 J/KG/ AND LAPSE
RATES />7C/KM/ DO NOT APPEAR OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT THIS TREND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE FIRST S/WV WILL PASS INTO THE PLAINS
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST H7-H5 FLOW OVER THE REGION AND AMPLE
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW END RAIN AND TSTORM
CHANCES IN THE 30-40% RANGE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY...GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS BUT EVENTUALLY TAKE MOST OF THE ENERGY INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH PLAINS. SOME RESIDUAL EFFECTS SIMILAR TO THE
FIRST WAVE MAY BE FELT BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NORTH OF
THE REGION. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  84  64  83  65 /   0  10  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  55  85  62  82  65 /   0  10  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  84  64  82  65 /   0  10  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            57  83  62  81  64 /   0  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  87  67  83  67 /   0  10  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  83  63  82  64 /   0  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  84  66  82  66 /   0  10  10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  83  64  82  65 /   0  10  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  85  63  83  65 /   0  10  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  86  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  86  66  83  67 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KFWD 022340 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEEPENS TOMORROW...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF BKN050-070 LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEASONALLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
BRANCH JET. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE STATE ONE MORE DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOST STORM CHANCES
MONDAY AFERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...BUT ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE EXTREME WESTERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE BIGGER THREAT MAY COME FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE THE
GROUND IS NEAR SATURATION IN MANY LOCATIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.

THERE SHOULD BE PERIOD OF BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER....ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE MID WEEK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
LOW AND REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP NORTH TEXAS MOIST AND UNSETTLED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING LESS ACTIVE
WEATHER TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  83  64  84  64 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              57  82  63  83  64 /   5   5  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             60  80  59  84  60 /  10   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            58  82  62  83  59 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  61  82  58 /  10   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            63  83  64  84  63 /  10   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           59  83  64  82  61 /  10   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  63  84  64 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            58  81  62  82  63 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  61  82  62 /   5   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 022340 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEEPENS TOMORROW...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF BKN050-070 LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEASONALLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
BRANCH JET. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE STATE ONE MORE DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOST STORM CHANCES
MONDAY AFERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...BUT ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE EXTREME WESTERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE BIGGER THREAT MAY COME FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE THE
GROUND IS NEAR SATURATION IN MANY LOCATIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.

THERE SHOULD BE PERIOD OF BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER....ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE MID WEEK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
LOW AND REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP NORTH TEXAS MOIST AND UNSETTLED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING LESS ACTIVE
WEATHER TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  83  64  84  64 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              57  82  63  83  64 /   5   5  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             60  80  59  84  60 /  10   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            58  82  62  83  59 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  61  82  58 /  10   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            63  83  64  84  63 /  10   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           59  83  64  82  61 /  10   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  63  84  64 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            58  81  62  82  63 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  61  82  62 /   5   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 022340 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEEPENS TOMORROW...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF BKN050-070 LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEASONALLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
BRANCH JET. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE STATE ONE MORE DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOST STORM CHANCES
MONDAY AFERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...BUT ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE EXTREME WESTERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE BIGGER THREAT MAY COME FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE THE
GROUND IS NEAR SATURATION IN MANY LOCATIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.

THERE SHOULD BE PERIOD OF BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER....ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE MID WEEK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
LOW AND REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP NORTH TEXAS MOIST AND UNSETTLED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING LESS ACTIVE
WEATHER TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  83  64  84  64 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              57  82  63  83  64 /   5   5  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             60  80  59  84  60 /  10   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            58  82  62  83  59 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  61  82  58 /  10   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            63  83  64  84  63 /  10   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           59  83  64  82  61 /  10   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  63  84  64 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            58  81  62  82  63 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  61  82  62 /   5   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 022340 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEEPENS TOMORROW...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF BKN050-070 LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEASONALLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
BRANCH JET. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE STATE ONE MORE DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOST STORM CHANCES
MONDAY AFERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...BUT ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE EXTREME WESTERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE BIGGER THREAT MAY COME FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE THE
GROUND IS NEAR SATURATION IN MANY LOCATIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.

THERE SHOULD BE PERIOD OF BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER....ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE MID WEEK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
LOW AND REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP NORTH TEXAS MOIST AND UNSETTLED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING LESS ACTIVE
WEATHER TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  83  64  84  64 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              57  82  63  83  64 /   5   5  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             60  80  59  84  60 /  10   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            58  82  62  83  59 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  61  82  58 /  10   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            63  83  64  84  63 /  10   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           59  83  64  82  61 /  10   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  63  84  64 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            58  81  62  82  63 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  61  82  62 /   5   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 022340 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEEPENS TOMORROW...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF BKN050-070 LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEASONALLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
BRANCH JET. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE STATE ONE MORE DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOST STORM CHANCES
MONDAY AFERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...BUT ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE EXTREME WESTERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE BIGGER THREAT MAY COME FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE THE
GROUND IS NEAR SATURATION IN MANY LOCATIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.

THERE SHOULD BE PERIOD OF BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER....ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE MID WEEK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
LOW AND REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP NORTH TEXAS MOIST AND UNSETTLED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING LESS ACTIVE
WEATHER TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  83  64  84  64 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              57  82  63  83  64 /   5   5  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             60  80  59  84  60 /  10   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            58  82  62  83  59 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  61  82  58 /  10   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            63  83  64  84  63 /  10   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           59  83  64  82  61 /  10   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  63  84  64 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            58  81  62  82  63 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  61  82  62 /   5   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 022340 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. AS A LEE SIDE LOW DEEPENS TOMORROW...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WE WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF BKN050-070 LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEASONALLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
BRANCH JET. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE STATE ONE MORE DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOST STORM CHANCES
MONDAY AFERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...BUT ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE EXTREME WESTERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE BIGGER THREAT MAY COME FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE THE
GROUND IS NEAR SATURATION IN MANY LOCATIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.

THERE SHOULD BE PERIOD OF BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER....ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE MID WEEK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
LOW AND REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP NORTH TEXAS MOIST AND UNSETTLED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING LESS ACTIVE
WEATHER TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  83  64  84  64 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              57  82  63  83  64 /   5   5  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             60  80  59  84  60 /  10   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            58  82  62  83  59 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  61  82  58 /  10   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            63  83  64  84  63 /  10   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           59  83  64  82  61 /  10   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  63  84  64 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            58  81  62  82  63 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  61  82  62 /   5   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/25



000
FXUS64 KAMA 022338 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET...THEN INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER WRN AND CNTRL PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
TERMINAL SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AS RIDGE-RIDING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPPORTS
CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CENTRAL CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE BECOMING ALIGNED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOK TO OFFER BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOAKING RAINS.  DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN MOISTENING REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  LOW POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GULF REMAINS OPEN TO THIS AREA.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST FUELS WILL
LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN FUELS...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 022338 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET...THEN INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER WRN AND CNTRL PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
TERMINAL SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AS RIDGE-RIDING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPPORTS
CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CENTRAL CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE BECOMING ALIGNED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOK TO OFFER BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOAKING RAINS.  DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN MOISTENING REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  LOW POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GULF REMAINS OPEN TO THIS AREA.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST FUELS WILL
LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN FUELS...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 022338 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET...THEN INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER WRN AND CNTRL PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
TERMINAL SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AS RIDGE-RIDING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPPORTS
CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CENTRAL CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE BECOMING ALIGNED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOK TO OFFER BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOAKING RAINS.  DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN MOISTENING REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  LOW POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GULF REMAINS OPEN TO THIS AREA.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST FUELS WILL
LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN FUELS...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 022338 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET...THEN INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER WRN AND CNTRL PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
TERMINAL SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AS RIDGE-RIDING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPPORTS
CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CENTRAL CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE BECOMING ALIGNED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOK TO OFFER BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOAKING RAINS.  DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN MOISTENING REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  LOW POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GULF REMAINS OPEN TO THIS AREA.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST FUELS WILL
LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN FUELS...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 022338 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET...THEN INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER WRN AND CNTRL PARTS
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO OMIT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
TERMINAL SITE BEING IMPACTED.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AS RIDGE-RIDING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPPORTS
CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CENTRAL CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE BECOMING ALIGNED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOK TO OFFER BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOAKING RAINS.  DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN MOISTENING REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  LOW POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GULF REMAINS OPEN TO THIS AREA.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST FUELS WILL
LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN FUELS...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KCRP 022322
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LLVL MSTR WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE STRATO-CU DVLP OR SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY AFTN AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT TNGT THEN FRESHEN SUN AFTN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 30-35 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NAM/GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO 7.5-8 DEGS C/KM OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS TO FORM SUNDAY
MORNING AND DRIFT INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INVERSION AROUND 5-6 KFT KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA
SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE BRUSH COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...SO KEPT POPS
AT 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
SCEC LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PROMOTE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ALOFT...MID/UPPER LVL LOW/TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A SERIES
OF VORT MAXES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEK. THIS PASSING
UPPER LOW WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW DIVING INTO THE SW
CONUS...AND AGAIN SENDING MORE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN DIFFERS FROM THAT OF A COUPLE WEEK
AGO IN THAT THERE IS NOT A SYNOPTIC FORCING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SET
UP IS IN PLACE FOR CHANCE POPS TO OCCUR EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TX/NORTHERN MEXICO. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOWS COMING
UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOW TO MID 70S)...AND HIGHS
SEASONABLE HIGHS (LOW/MID 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WEST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  70  81  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          60  82  66  81  67  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            67  87  71  85  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             62  85  68  83  71  /   0  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          69  82  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           62  86  68  84  69  /   0  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  84  69  83  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  81  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TJ/70...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 022322
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LLVL MSTR WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE STRATO-CU DVLP OR SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY AFTN AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT TNGT THEN FRESHEN SUN AFTN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 30-35 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NAM/GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO 7.5-8 DEGS C/KM OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS TO FORM SUNDAY
MORNING AND DRIFT INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INVERSION AROUND 5-6 KFT KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA
SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE BRUSH COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...SO KEPT POPS
AT 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
SCEC LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PROMOTE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ALOFT...MID/UPPER LVL LOW/TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A SERIES
OF VORT MAXES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEK. THIS PASSING
UPPER LOW WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW DIVING INTO THE SW
CONUS...AND AGAIN SENDING MORE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN DIFFERS FROM THAT OF A COUPLE WEEK
AGO IN THAT THERE IS NOT A SYNOPTIC FORCING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SET
UP IS IN PLACE FOR CHANCE POPS TO OCCUR EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TX/NORTHERN MEXICO. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOWS COMING
UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOW TO MID 70S)...AND HIGHS
SEASONABLE HIGHS (LOW/MID 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WEST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  70  81  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          60  82  66  81  67  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            67  87  71  85  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             62  85  68  83  71  /   0  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          69  82  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           62  86  68  84  69  /   0  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  84  69  83  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  81  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TJ/70...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 022322
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LLVL MSTR WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE STRATO-CU DVLP OR SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY AFTN AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT TNGT THEN FRESHEN SUN AFTN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 30-35 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NAM/GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO 7.5-8 DEGS C/KM OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS TO FORM SUNDAY
MORNING AND DRIFT INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INVERSION AROUND 5-6 KFT KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA
SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE BRUSH COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...SO KEPT POPS
AT 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
SCEC LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PROMOTE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ALOFT...MID/UPPER LVL LOW/TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A SERIES
OF VORT MAXES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEK. THIS PASSING
UPPER LOW WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW DIVING INTO THE SW
CONUS...AND AGAIN SENDING MORE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN DIFFERS FROM THAT OF A COUPLE WEEK
AGO IN THAT THERE IS NOT A SYNOPTIC FORCING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SET
UP IS IN PLACE FOR CHANCE POPS TO OCCUR EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TX/NORTHERN MEXICO. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOWS COMING
UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOW TO MID 70S)...AND HIGHS
SEASONABLE HIGHS (LOW/MID 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WEST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  70  81  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          60  82  66  81  67  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            67  87  71  85  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             62  85  68  83  71  /   0  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          69  82  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           62  86  68  84  69  /   0  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  84  69  83  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  81  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TJ/70...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 022322
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LLVL MSTR WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE STRATO-CU DVLP OR SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY AFTN AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT TNGT THEN FRESHEN SUN AFTN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 30-35 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NAM/GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO 7.5-8 DEGS C/KM OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS TO FORM SUNDAY
MORNING AND DRIFT INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INVERSION AROUND 5-6 KFT KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA
SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE BRUSH COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...SO KEPT POPS
AT 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
SCEC LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PROMOTE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ALOFT...MID/UPPER LVL LOW/TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A SERIES
OF VORT MAXES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEK. THIS PASSING
UPPER LOW WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW DIVING INTO THE SW
CONUS...AND AGAIN SENDING MORE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN DIFFERS FROM THAT OF A COUPLE WEEK
AGO IN THAT THERE IS NOT A SYNOPTIC FORCING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SET
UP IS IN PLACE FOR CHANCE POPS TO OCCUR EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TX/NORTHERN MEXICO. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOWS COMING
UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOW TO MID 70S)...AND HIGHS
SEASONABLE HIGHS (LOW/MID 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WEST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  70  81  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          60  82  66  81  67  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            67  87  71  85  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             62  85  68  83  71  /   0  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          69  82  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           62  86  68  84  69  /   0  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  84  69  83  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  81  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TJ/70...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 022322
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LLVL MSTR WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE STRATO-CU DVLP OR SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY AFTN AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT TNGT THEN FRESHEN SUN AFTN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 30-35 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NAM/GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO 7.5-8 DEGS C/KM OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS TO FORM SUNDAY
MORNING AND DRIFT INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INVERSION AROUND 5-6 KFT KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA
SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE BRUSH COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...SO KEPT POPS
AT 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
SCEC LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PROMOTE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ALOFT...MID/UPPER LVL LOW/TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A SERIES
OF VORT MAXES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEK. THIS PASSING
UPPER LOW WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW DIVING INTO THE SW
CONUS...AND AGAIN SENDING MORE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN DIFFERS FROM THAT OF A COUPLE WEEK
AGO IN THAT THERE IS NOT A SYNOPTIC FORCING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SET
UP IS IN PLACE FOR CHANCE POPS TO OCCUR EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TX/NORTHERN MEXICO. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOWS COMING
UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOW TO MID 70S)...AND HIGHS
SEASONABLE HIGHS (LOW/MID 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WEST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  70  81  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          60  82  66  81  67  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            67  87  71  85  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             62  85  68  83  71  /   0  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          69  82  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           62  86  68  84  69  /   0  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  84  69  83  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  81  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TJ/70...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 022322
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LLVL MSTR WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE STRATO-CU DVLP OR SPREAD
INLAND DURING THE ERLY MORNING HOURS WITH AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS LIKELY AROUND OR AFTER DAYBREAK. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
INTO THE VFR RANGE BY AFTN AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT TNGT THEN FRESHEN SUN AFTN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 30-35 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NAM/GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO 7.5-8 DEGS C/KM OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS TO FORM SUNDAY
MORNING AND DRIFT INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INVERSION AROUND 5-6 KFT KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA
SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE BRUSH COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...SO KEPT POPS
AT 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
SCEC LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PROMOTE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ALOFT...MID/UPPER LVL LOW/TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A SERIES
OF VORT MAXES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEK. THIS PASSING
UPPER LOW WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW DIVING INTO THE SW
CONUS...AND AGAIN SENDING MORE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN DIFFERS FROM THAT OF A COUPLE WEEK
AGO IN THAT THERE IS NOT A SYNOPTIC FORCING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SET
UP IS IN PLACE FOR CHANCE POPS TO OCCUR EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TX/NORTHERN MEXICO. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOWS COMING
UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOW TO MID 70S)...AND HIGHS
SEASONABLE HIGHS (LOW/MID 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WEST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  70  81  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          60  82  66  81  67  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            67  87  71  85  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             62  85  68  83  71  /   0  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          69  82  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           62  86  68  84  69  /   0  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  84  69  83  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  81  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TJ/70...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KBRO 022314 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
614 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE OF TAFS.
ENOUGH WIND SHOULD REMAIN OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW ONLY FOR THE LIGHTEST
OF FOG. CEILINGS WERE REDUCED 1K FEET AND INITIATED ABOUT TWO
HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AND SURFACE WINDS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE BREEZY THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
OVERALL...MVFR TONIGHT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
AS WELL WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS...WEST
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 20 TO 25
KTS AT 925MB.

TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING IF WINDS DROP LOW
ENOUGH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
RETURNED MOISTURE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
REESTABLISHED...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE GONE AND REPLACED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LEE TROUGHING AND THE MIXING DOWN OF
WINDS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. A
FEW MORE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH 1000 TO 500MB LAYER RH REMAINING BELOW 70 PERCENT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MOIST WITH THE 1000 TO 700MB LAYER RH
AT 70 TO 75 PERCENT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR UPWARDS TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AN OPEN WAVE MOVES INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE RIPPLES ASIDE TO THE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST INFLUX OF DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN OUR REGION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE 1000 TO 500RH SHOW VALUES OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT
AND HIGHER EVEN FURTHER WEST WHERE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION NEAR ZAPATA...STARR AND JIM HOGG COUNTY. THE CLOUD DECK
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY. INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY NE
AND E ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PROVIDING A MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE BETTER DYNAMIC STILL REMAINS FURTHER
NORTH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERNGENCE BUT
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO ENTER THE CWA.
AREAS THAT WILL BE FAVOR BY THIS ACTIVITY STILL REMAIN MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MID WEST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE CA COAST WHICH WILL CREATE A STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE
GRADIENT AS IT STRENGTHENS SO WILL THE SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE BUT WILL NOT BE AS DEEP
MOISTURE WHICH WILL MAINLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND COULD ENHANCE
A ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES
A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SIMILAR
PATTERN AS THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE. AS A RESULT ..INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT TO 2 TO 4 FEET
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH BUT WILL STILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INLAND
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
KEEPING A MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE SEAS WILL BUILD CLOSE TO 6 FEET LATE TUESDAY DUE
TO THE LONG SE FETCH AND INCREASE IN WINDS. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KBRO 022314 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
614 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE OF TAFS.
ENOUGH WIND SHOULD REMAIN OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW ONLY FOR THE LIGHTEST
OF FOG. CEILINGS WERE REDUCED 1K FEET AND INITIATED ABOUT TWO
HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AND SURFACE WINDS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE BREEZY THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
OVERALL...MVFR TONIGHT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
AS WELL WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS...WEST
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 20 TO 25
KTS AT 925MB.

TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING IF WINDS DROP LOW
ENOUGH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
RETURNED MOISTURE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
REESTABLISHED...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE GONE AND REPLACED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LEE TROUGHING AND THE MIXING DOWN OF
WINDS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. A
FEW MORE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH 1000 TO 500MB LAYER RH REMAINING BELOW 70 PERCENT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MOIST WITH THE 1000 TO 700MB LAYER RH
AT 70 TO 75 PERCENT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR UPWARDS TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AN OPEN WAVE MOVES INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE RIPPLES ASIDE TO THE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST INFLUX OF DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN OUR REGION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE 1000 TO 500RH SHOW VALUES OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT
AND HIGHER EVEN FURTHER WEST WHERE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION NEAR ZAPATA...STARR AND JIM HOGG COUNTY. THE CLOUD DECK
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY. INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY NE
AND E ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PROVIDING A MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE BETTER DYNAMIC STILL REMAINS FURTHER
NORTH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERNGENCE BUT
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO ENTER THE CWA.
AREAS THAT WILL BE FAVOR BY THIS ACTIVITY STILL REMAIN MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MID WEST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE CA COAST WHICH WILL CREATE A STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE
GRADIENT AS IT STRENGTHENS SO WILL THE SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE BUT WILL NOT BE AS DEEP
MOISTURE WHICH WILL MAINLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND COULD ENHANCE
A ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES
A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SIMILAR
PATTERN AS THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE. AS A RESULT ..INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT TO 2 TO 4 FEET
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH BUT WILL STILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INLAND
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
KEEPING A MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE SEAS WILL BUILD CLOSE TO 6 FEET LATE TUESDAY DUE
TO THE LONG SE FETCH AND INCREASE IN WINDS. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV



000
FXUS64 KBRO 022314 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
614 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE OF TAFS.
ENOUGH WIND SHOULD REMAIN OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW ONLY FOR THE LIGHTEST
OF FOG. CEILINGS WERE REDUCED 1K FEET AND INITIATED ABOUT TWO
HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AND SURFACE WINDS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE BREEZY THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
OVERALL...MVFR TONIGHT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
AS WELL WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS...WEST
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 20 TO 25
KTS AT 925MB.

TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING IF WINDS DROP LOW
ENOUGH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
RETURNED MOISTURE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
REESTABLISHED...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE GONE AND REPLACED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LEE TROUGHING AND THE MIXING DOWN OF
WINDS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. A
FEW MORE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH 1000 TO 500MB LAYER RH REMAINING BELOW 70 PERCENT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MOIST WITH THE 1000 TO 700MB LAYER RH
AT 70 TO 75 PERCENT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR UPWARDS TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AN OPEN WAVE MOVES INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE RIPPLES ASIDE TO THE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST INFLUX OF DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN OUR REGION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE 1000 TO 500RH SHOW VALUES OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT
AND HIGHER EVEN FURTHER WEST WHERE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION NEAR ZAPATA...STARR AND JIM HOGG COUNTY. THE CLOUD DECK
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY. INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY NE
AND E ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PROVIDING A MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE BETTER DYNAMIC STILL REMAINS FURTHER
NORTH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERNGENCE BUT
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO ENTER THE CWA.
AREAS THAT WILL BE FAVOR BY THIS ACTIVITY STILL REMAIN MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MID WEST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE CA COAST WHICH WILL CREATE A STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE
GRADIENT AS IT STRENGTHENS SO WILL THE SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE BUT WILL NOT BE AS DEEP
MOISTURE WHICH WILL MAINLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND COULD ENHANCE
A ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES
A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SIMILAR
PATTERN AS THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE. AS A RESULT ..INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT TO 2 TO 4 FEET
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH BUT WILL STILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INLAND
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
KEEPING A MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE SEAS WILL BUILD CLOSE TO 6 FEET LATE TUESDAY DUE
TO THE LONG SE FETCH AND INCREASE IN WINDS. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV



000
FXUS64 KBRO 022314 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
614 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE OF TAFS.
ENOUGH WIND SHOULD REMAIN OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW ONLY FOR THE LIGHTEST
OF FOG. CEILINGS WERE REDUCED 1K FEET AND INITIATED ABOUT TWO
HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. AND SURFACE WINDS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE BREEZY THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST.
OVERALL...MVFR TONIGHT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
AS WELL WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS...WEST
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 20 TO 25
KTS AT 925MB.

TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING IF WINDS DROP LOW
ENOUGH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
RETURNED MOISTURE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
REESTABLISHED...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE GONE AND REPLACED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LEE TROUGHING AND THE MIXING DOWN OF
WINDS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. A
FEW MORE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH 1000 TO 500MB LAYER RH REMAINING BELOW 70 PERCENT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MOIST WITH THE 1000 TO 700MB LAYER RH
AT 70 TO 75 PERCENT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR UPWARDS TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AN OPEN WAVE MOVES INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE RIPPLES ASIDE TO THE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST INFLUX OF DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN OUR REGION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE 1000 TO 500RH SHOW VALUES OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT
AND HIGHER EVEN FURTHER WEST WHERE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION NEAR ZAPATA...STARR AND JIM HOGG COUNTY. THE CLOUD DECK
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY. INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY NE
AND E ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PROVIDING A MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE BETTER DYNAMIC STILL REMAINS FURTHER
NORTH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERNGENCE BUT
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO ENTER THE CWA.
AREAS THAT WILL BE FAVOR BY THIS ACTIVITY STILL REMAIN MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MID WEST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE CA COAST WHICH WILL CREATE A STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE
GRADIENT AS IT STRENGTHENS SO WILL THE SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE BUT WILL NOT BE AS DEEP
MOISTURE WHICH WILL MAINLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND COULD ENHANCE
A ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES
A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SIMILAR
PATTERN AS THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE. AS A RESULT ..INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT TO 2 TO 4 FEET
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH BUT WILL STILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INLAND
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
KEEPING A MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE SEAS WILL BUILD CLOSE TO 6 FEET LATE TUESDAY DUE
TO THE LONG SE FETCH AND INCREASE IN WINDS. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV




000
FXUS64 KSJT 022301
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
601 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop across the Hill Country and affect
mainly KJCT and KSOA between 11z and 12z Sunday, resulting in MVFR
ceilings. VFR conditions will return to all sites by mid to late
morning. Winds will generally be south at 5 to 10 knots overnight,
increasing to 8 to 14 knots by late morning Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Quiet in the short term, before the main action starts next week.
Surface high pressure across the southeast US will shift even
farther east through Sunday. As the upper level trough moves onto
the West Coast by Sunday afternoon, lee trough will strengthen at
the surface. Pressure gradient will tighten and southerly winds will
begin to increase. This will keep overnight lows up tonight, with
temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees warmer than they were this
morning. Surface dewpoints are only in the mid 50s across much of
South Texas, so these increasing southerly winds will bring better
low level moisture to West Central Texas for Sunday, but not as
moist as it could be for the first week in May. That moisture will
wait til later in the week.

May see a little more cloud cover on Sunday, so although 850mb
temperatures climb about a degree C, we may see actual highs Sunday
afternoon near where they end up today.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night-Saturday)

Chances for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall and a few severe storms return Tuesday through Friday.
Could see some light rain showers on Monday as deep moisture returns
from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching upper level
disturbance from northern Mexico.

The best chance for rain should be on Tuesday and Tuesday night
as a strong upper level shortwave trough moves across the area.
With moderate CAPE values between 1500 and 2000J/KG, may see a
few storms produce large hail and damaging winds along with
locally heavy rainfall.

Look for chances of strong to severe thunderstorms to continue Wednesday
through Saturday along the dryline as the upper level flow pattern
continues from the southwest and surface based CAPE values
continue to increase. This flow pattern is favorable for periodic
upper level disturbances to track across West Central Texas,
triggering thunderstorms along the dryline or anytime during the
day or night. In these type of weather patterns, it can be
difficult to pinpoint timing. For this reason, continued chance
Pops through much of the period. Because of increasing gulf
moisture, southeast breezes and increasing cloud cover, look for
high temperatures to remain mostly in the lower 80s this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  83  62  80  62 /   0   5  10  10  30
San Angelo  61  86  63  81  63 /   0   5  10  10  40
Junction  59  81  64  79  63 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 022301
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
601 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus is forecast to develop across the Hill Country and affect
mainly KJCT and KSOA between 11z and 12z Sunday, resulting in MVFR
ceilings. VFR conditions will return to all sites by mid to late
morning. Winds will generally be south at 5 to 10 knots overnight,
increasing to 8 to 14 knots by late morning Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Quiet in the short term, before the main action starts next week.
Surface high pressure across the southeast US will shift even
farther east through Sunday. As the upper level trough moves onto
the West Coast by Sunday afternoon, lee trough will strengthen at
the surface. Pressure gradient will tighten and southerly winds will
begin to increase. This will keep overnight lows up tonight, with
temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees warmer than they were this
morning. Surface dewpoints are only in the mid 50s across much of
South Texas, so these increasing southerly winds will bring better
low level moisture to West Central Texas for Sunday, but not as
moist as it could be for the first week in May. That moisture will
wait til later in the week.

May see a little more cloud cover on Sunday, so although 850mb
temperatures climb about a degree C, we may see actual highs Sunday
afternoon near where they end up today.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night-Saturday)

Chances for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall and a few severe storms return Tuesday through Friday.
Could see some light rain showers on Monday as deep moisture returns
from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching upper level
disturbance from northern Mexico.

The best chance for rain should be on Tuesday and Tuesday night
as a strong upper level shortwave trough moves across the area.
With moderate CAPE values between 1500 and 2000J/KG, may see a
few storms produce large hail and damaging winds along with
locally heavy rainfall.

Look for chances of strong to severe thunderstorms to continue Wednesday
through Saturday along the dryline as the upper level flow pattern
continues from the southwest and surface based CAPE values
continue to increase. This flow pattern is favorable for periodic
upper level disturbances to track across West Central Texas,
triggering thunderstorms along the dryline or anytime during the
day or night. In these type of weather patterns, it can be
difficult to pinpoint timing. For this reason, continued chance
Pops through much of the period. Because of increasing gulf
moisture, southeast breezes and increasing cloud cover, look for
high temperatures to remain mostly in the lower 80s this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  83  62  80  62 /   0   5  10  10  30
San Angelo  61  86  63  81  63 /   0   5  10  10  40
Junction  59  81  64  79  63 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KAMA 022048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AS RIDGE-RIDING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPPORTS
CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CENTRAL CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE BECOMING ALIGNED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOK TO OFFER BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOAKING RAINS.  DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN MOISTENING REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  LOW POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GULF REMAINS OPEN TO THIS AREA.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST FUELS WILL
LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN FUELS...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. 03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  86  58  76  56 /   5  20  30  50  70
BEAVER OK                  59  88  60  80  59 /  10  20  30  50  70
BOISE CITY OK              53  85  54  70  54 /  20  30  20  60  70
BORGER TX                  60  88  60  79  58 /   5  20  30  50  70
BOYS RANCH TX              57  88  58  76  57 /  10  30  30  60  70
CANYON TX                  56  86  57  76  57 /   5  20  30  60  70
CLARENDON TX               57  85  59  77  58 /   5   5  30  40  70
DALHART TX                 54  87  54  73  54 /  20  30  20  60  70
GUYMON OK                  57  88  57  77  57 /  10  30  30  60  70
HEREFORD TX                55  87  56  74  56 /   5  20  30  60  70
LIPSCOMB TX                60  86  60  79  59 /  10  10  20  40  70
PAMPA TX                   58  84  58  75  56 /   5  10  30  40  70
SHAMROCK TX                57  84  60  77  60 /  10   5  20  40  60
WELLINGTON TX              58  85  60  79  60 /  10   5  20  30  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 022048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AS RIDGE-RIDING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPPORTS
CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CENTRAL CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE BECOMING ALIGNED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOK TO OFFER BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOAKING RAINS.  DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN MOISTENING REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  LOW POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GULF REMAINS OPEN TO THIS AREA.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST FUELS WILL
LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN FUELS...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. 03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  86  58  76  56 /   5  20  30  50  70
BEAVER OK                  59  88  60  80  59 /  10  20  30  50  70
BOISE CITY OK              53  85  54  70  54 /  20  30  20  60  70
BORGER TX                  60  88  60  79  58 /   5  20  30  50  70
BOYS RANCH TX              57  88  58  76  57 /  10  30  30  60  70
CANYON TX                  56  86  57  76  57 /   5  20  30  60  70
CLARENDON TX               57  85  59  77  58 /   5   5  30  40  70
DALHART TX                 54  87  54  73  54 /  20  30  20  60  70
GUYMON OK                  57  88  57  77  57 /  10  30  30  60  70
HEREFORD TX                55  87  56  74  56 /   5  20  30  60  70
LIPSCOMB TX                60  86  60  79  59 /  10  10  20  40  70
PAMPA TX                   58  84  58  75  56 /   5  10  30  40  70
SHAMROCK TX                57  84  60  77  60 /  10   5  20  40  60
WELLINGTON TX              58  85  60  79  60 /  10   5  20  30  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/03




000
FXUS64 KAMA 022048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AS RIDGE-RIDING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPPORTS
CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CENTRAL CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE BECOMING ALIGNED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOK TO OFFER BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOAKING RAINS.  DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN MOISTENING REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  LOW POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GULF REMAINS OPEN TO THIS AREA.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST FUELS WILL
LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN FUELS...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. 03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  86  58  76  56 /   5  20  30  50  70
BEAVER OK                  59  88  60  80  59 /  10  20  30  50  70
BOISE CITY OK              53  85  54  70  54 /  20  30  20  60  70
BORGER TX                  60  88  60  79  58 /   5  20  30  50  70
BOYS RANCH TX              57  88  58  76  57 /  10  30  30  60  70
CANYON TX                  56  86  57  76  57 /   5  20  30  60  70
CLARENDON TX               57  85  59  77  58 /   5   5  30  40  70
DALHART TX                 54  87  54  73  54 /  20  30  20  60  70
GUYMON OK                  57  88  57  77  57 /  10  30  30  60  70
HEREFORD TX                55  87  56  74  56 /   5  20  30  60  70
LIPSCOMB TX                60  86  60  79  59 /  10  10  20  40  70
PAMPA TX                   58  84  58  75  56 /   5  10  30  40  70
SHAMROCK TX                57  84  60  77  60 /  10   5  20  40  60
WELLINGTON TX              58  85  60  79  60 /  10   5  20  30  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/03




000
FXUS64 KAMA 022048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...AS RIDGE-RIDING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SUPPORTS
CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CENTRAL CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING OWING TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER CONVERGENCE BECOMING ALIGNED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING STILL LOOK TO OFFER BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOAKING RAINS.  DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN MOISTENING REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MID-
LEVEL FLOW.  LOW POPS IN MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS GULF REMAINS OPEN TO THIS AREA.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST FUELS WILL
LIMIT RAPID FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY. WETTING RAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FURTHER MOISTEN FUELS...WITH NO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. 03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  86  58  76  56 /   5  20  30  50  70
BEAVER OK                  59  88  60  80  59 /  10  20  30  50  70
BOISE CITY OK              53  85  54  70  54 /  20  30  20  60  70
BORGER TX                  60  88  60  79  58 /   5  20  30  50  70
BOYS RANCH TX              57  88  58  76  57 /  10  30  30  60  70
CANYON TX                  56  86  57  76  57 /   5  20  30  60  70
CLARENDON TX               57  85  59  77  58 /   5   5  30  40  70
DALHART TX                 54  87  54  73  54 /  20  30  20  60  70
GUYMON OK                  57  88  57  77  57 /  10  30  30  60  70
HEREFORD TX                55  87  56  74  56 /   5  20  30  60  70
LIPSCOMB TX                60  86  60  79  59 /  10  10  20  40  70
PAMPA TX                   58  84  58  75  56 /   5  10  30  40  70
SHAMROCK TX                57  84  60  77  60 /  10   5  20  40  60
WELLINGTON TX              58  85  60  79  60 /  10   5  20  30  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/03





000
FXUS64 KCRP 022027
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 30-35 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NAM/GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO 7.5-8 DEGS C/KM OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS TO FORM SUNDAY
MORNING AND DRIFT INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INVERSION AROUND 5-6 KFT KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA
SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE BRUSH COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...SO KEPT POPS
AT 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
SCEC LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PROMOTE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ALOFT...MID/UPPER LVL LOW/TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A SERIES
OF VORT MAXES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEK. THIS PASSING
UPPER LOW WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW DIVING INTO THE SW
CONUS...AND AGAIN SENDING MORE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN DIFFERS FROM THAT OF A COUPLE WEEK
AGO IN THAT THERE IS NOT A SYNOPTIC FORCING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SET
UP IS IN PLACE FOR CHANCE POPS TO OCCUR EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TX/NORTHERN MEXICO. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOWS COMING
UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOW TO MID 70S)...AND HIGHS
SEASONABLE HIGHS (LOW/MID 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WEST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  70  81  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          60  82  66  81  67  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            67  87  71  85  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             62  85  68  83  71  /   0  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          69  82  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           62  86  68  84  69  /   0  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  84  69  83  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  81  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 022027
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 30-35 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NAM/GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO 7.5-8 DEGS C/KM OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS TO FORM SUNDAY
MORNING AND DRIFT INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INVERSION AROUND 5-6 KFT KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA
SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE BRUSH COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...SO KEPT POPS
AT 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
SCEC LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PROMOTE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ALOFT...MID/UPPER LVL LOW/TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A SERIES
OF VORT MAXES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEK. THIS PASSING
UPPER LOW WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW DIVING INTO THE SW
CONUS...AND AGAIN SENDING MORE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN DIFFERS FROM THAT OF A COUPLE WEEK
AGO IN THAT THERE IS NOT A SYNOPTIC FORCING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SET
UP IS IN PLACE FOR CHANCE POPS TO OCCUR EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TX/NORTHERN MEXICO. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOWS COMING
UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOW TO MID 70S)...AND HIGHS
SEASONABLE HIGHS (LOW/MID 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WEST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  70  81  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          60  82  66  81  67  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            67  87  71  85  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             62  85  68  83  71  /   0  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          69  82  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           62  86  68  84  69  /   0  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  84  69  83  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  81  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 022027
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND 30-35 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NAM/GFS MODELS ALSO SHOW THE
1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE TO 7.5-8 DEGS C/KM OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY
MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS TO FORM SUNDAY
MORNING AND DRIFT INLAND INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INVERSION AROUND 5-6 KFT KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA
SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION FORM OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE BRUSH COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...SO KEPT POPS
AT 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
SCEC LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL PROMOTE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ALOFT...MID/UPPER LVL LOW/TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SEND A SERIES
OF VORT MAXES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY WEEK. THIS PASSING
UPPER LOW WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW DIVING INTO THE SW
CONUS...AND AGAIN SENDING MORE IMPULSES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN DIFFERS FROM THAT OF A COUPLE WEEK
AGO IN THAT THERE IS NOT A SYNOPTIC FORCING BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...SET
UP IS IN PLACE FOR CHANCE POPS TO OCCUR EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TX/NORTHERN MEXICO. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOWS COMING
UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES (LOW TO MID 70S)...AND HIGHS
SEASONABLE HIGHS (LOW/MID 80S EAST TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WEST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  70  81  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          60  82  66  81  67  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            67  87  71  85  70  /  10  10  10  20  20
ALICE             62  85  68  83  71  /   0  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          69  82  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           62  86  68  84  69  /   0  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  84  69  83  71  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  81  72  79  72  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM



000
FXUS64 KHGX 022026
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FOG WILL BE SHALLOW AND WILL
BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE TEXAS
TECH WRF GENERATES SOME SHOWERS ON SUN AFTN BUT THE GFS/NAM KEEP
PW VALUES BELOW AN INCH AND INDICATE SOME WEAK CAPPING NEAR 700 MB
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.6-1.7 INCHES AND A WEAK CAPPING
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY AFTN. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHRA/TSRA ON TUES AFTN/EVENING. CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PW AIR...FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND WEAK
CAPPING. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY BUT HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF MAY
NUDGE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO SHIFT THE PRECIP TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS AND
AWAY FROM SE TX. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THE GFS LOOKS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTAINS A DEEPER TROUGH AND FLATTER RIDGING OVER THE
GULF. THE CANADIAN LOOKS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SO LEANED
TOWARD THE GFS/CAN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR INTO THE REGION SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
RISE. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER A DAY OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WINDS WILL COME
ONSHORE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY. EARLY
THROUGH MID WEEK`S NEAR SCEC LEVEL WINDS WILL BE GENERATED BY THE
TIGHTENED ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN U.S. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WESTERN PLAINS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
AVERAGE HIGHEST THIRD OF SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 4 TO 5
FEET NEARSHORE...6 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE...BY TUESDAY EVENING. 31

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  62  83  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  63  83  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  82  70  81  72 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 022026
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FOG WILL BE SHALLOW AND WILL
BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE TEXAS
TECH WRF GENERATES SOME SHOWERS ON SUN AFTN BUT THE GFS/NAM KEEP
PW VALUES BELOW AN INCH AND INDICATE SOME WEAK CAPPING NEAR 700 MB
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.6-1.7 INCHES AND A WEAK CAPPING
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY AFTN. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHRA/TSRA ON TUES AFTN/EVENING. CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PW AIR...FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND WEAK
CAPPING. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY BUT HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF MAY
NUDGE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO SHIFT THE PRECIP TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS AND
AWAY FROM SE TX. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THE GFS LOOKS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTAINS A DEEPER TROUGH AND FLATTER RIDGING OVER THE
GULF. THE CANADIAN LOOKS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SO LEANED
TOWARD THE GFS/CAN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR INTO THE REGION SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
RISE. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER A DAY OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WINDS WILL COME
ONSHORE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY. EARLY
THROUGH MID WEEK`S NEAR SCEC LEVEL WINDS WILL BE GENERATED BY THE
TIGHTENED ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN U.S. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WESTERN PLAINS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
AVERAGE HIGHEST THIRD OF SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 4 TO 5
FEET NEARSHORE...6 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE...BY TUESDAY EVENING. 31

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  62  83  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  63  83  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  82  70  81  72 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 022026
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FOG WILL BE SHALLOW AND WILL
BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE TEXAS
TECH WRF GENERATES SOME SHOWERS ON SUN AFTN BUT THE GFS/NAM KEEP
PW VALUES BELOW AN INCH AND INDICATE SOME WEAK CAPPING NEAR 700 MB
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.6-1.7 INCHES AND A WEAK CAPPING
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY AFTN. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHRA/TSRA ON TUES AFTN/EVENING. CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PW AIR...FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND WEAK
CAPPING. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY BUT HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF MAY
NUDGE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO SHIFT THE PRECIP TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS AND
AWAY FROM SE TX. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THE GFS LOOKS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTAINS A DEEPER TROUGH AND FLATTER RIDGING OVER THE
GULF. THE CANADIAN LOOKS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SO LEANED
TOWARD THE GFS/CAN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR INTO THE REGION SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
RISE. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER A DAY OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WINDS WILL COME
ONSHORE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY. EARLY
THROUGH MID WEEK`S NEAR SCEC LEVEL WINDS WILL BE GENERATED BY THE
TIGHTENED ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN U.S. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WESTERN PLAINS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
AVERAGE HIGHEST THIRD OF SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 4 TO 5
FEET NEARSHORE...6 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE...BY TUESDAY EVENING. 31

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  62  83  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  63  83  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  82  70  81  72 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 022026
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FOG WILL BE SHALLOW AND WILL
BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. THE TEXAS
TECH WRF GENERATES SOME SHOWERS ON SUN AFTN BUT THE GFS/NAM KEEP
PW VALUES BELOW AN INCH AND INDICATE SOME WEAK CAPPING NEAR 700 MB
SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.6-1.7 INCHES AND A WEAK CAPPING
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY AFTN. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHRA/TSRA ON TUES AFTN/EVENING. CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PW AIR...FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND WEAK
CAPPING. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY BUT HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF MAY
NUDGE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO SHIFT THE PRECIP TOWARD CENTRAL TEXAS AND
AWAY FROM SE TX. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THE GFS LOOKS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTAINS A DEEPER TROUGH AND FLATTER RIDGING OVER THE
GULF. THE CANADIAN LOOKS STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SO LEANED
TOWARD THE GFS/CAN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR INTO THE REGION SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
RISE. 43

&&

.MARINE...
AFTER A DAY OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WINDS WILL COME
ONSHORE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY. EARLY
THROUGH MID WEEK`S NEAR SCEC LEVEL WINDS WILL BE GENERATED BY THE
TIGHTENED ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN U.S. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WESTERN PLAINS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
AVERAGE HIGHEST THIRD OF SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 4 TO 5
FEET NEARSHORE...6 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE...BY TUESDAY EVENING. 31

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  62  83  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  83  63  83  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  82  70  81  72 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 022025
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
325 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Quiet in the short term, before the main action starts next week.
Surface high pressure across the southeast US will shift even
farther east through Sunday. As the upper level trough moves onto
the West Coast by Sunday afternoon, lee trough will strengthen at
the surface. Pressure gradient will tighten and southerly winds will
begin to increase. This will keep overnight lows up tonight, with
temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees warmer than they were this
morning. Surface dewpoints are only in the mid 50s across much of
South Texas, so these increasing southerly winds will bring better
low level moisture to West Central Texas for Sunday, but not as
moist as it could be for the first week in May. That moisture will
wait til later in the week.

May see a little more cloud cover on Sunday, so although 850mb
temperatures climb about a degree C, we may see actual highs Sunday
afternoon near where they end up today.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night-Saturday)

Chances for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall and a few severe storms return Tuesday through Friday.
Could see some light rain showers on Monday as deep moisture returns
from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching upper level
disturbance from northern Mexico.

The best chance for rain should be on Tuesday and Tuesday night
as a strong upper level shortwave trough moves across the area.
With moderate CAPE values between 1500 and 2000J/KG, may see a
few storms produce large hail and damaging winds along with
locally heavy rainfall.

Look for chances of strong to severe thunderstorms to continue Wednesday
through Saturday along the dryline as the upper level flow pattern
continues from the southwest and surface based CAPE values
continue to increase. This flow pattern is favorable for periodic
upper level disturbances to track across West Central Texas,
triggering thunderstorms along the dryline or anytime during the
day or night. In these type of weather patterns, it can be
difficult to pinpoint timing. For this reason, continued chance
Pops through much of the period. Because of increasing gulf
moisture, southeast breezes and increasing cloud cover, look for
high temperatures to remain mostly in the lower 80s this week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  83  62  80  62 /   0   5  10  10  30
San Angelo  61  86  63  81  63 /   5   5  10  10  40
Junction  59  81  64  79  63 /   5   0  10  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/26





000
FXUS64 KSJT 022025
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
325 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Quiet in the short term, before the main action starts next week.
Surface high pressure across the southeast US will shift even
farther east through Sunday. As the upper level trough moves onto
the West Coast by Sunday afternoon, lee trough will strengthen at
the surface. Pressure gradient will tighten and southerly winds will
begin to increase. This will keep overnight lows up tonight, with
temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees warmer than they were this
morning. Surface dewpoints are only in the mid 50s across much of
South Texas, so these increasing southerly winds will bring better
low level moisture to West Central Texas for Sunday, but not as
moist as it could be for the first week in May. That moisture will
wait til later in the week.

May see a little more cloud cover on Sunday, so although 850mb
temperatures climb about a degree C, we may see actual highs Sunday
afternoon near where they end up today.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night-Saturday)

Chances for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall and a few severe storms return Tuesday through Friday.
Could see some light rain showers on Monday as deep moisture returns
from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching upper level
disturbance from northern Mexico.

The best chance for rain should be on Tuesday and Tuesday night
as a strong upper level shortwave trough moves across the area.
With moderate CAPE values between 1500 and 2000J/KG, may see a
few storms produce large hail and damaging winds along with
locally heavy rainfall.

Look for chances of strong to severe thunderstorms to continue Wednesday
through Saturday along the dryline as the upper level flow pattern
continues from the southwest and surface based CAPE values
continue to increase. This flow pattern is favorable for periodic
upper level disturbances to track across West Central Texas,
triggering thunderstorms along the dryline or anytime during the
day or night. In these type of weather patterns, it can be
difficult to pinpoint timing. For this reason, continued chance
Pops through much of the period. Because of increasing gulf
moisture, southeast breezes and increasing cloud cover, look for
high temperatures to remain mostly in the lower 80s this week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  83  62  80  62 /   0   5  10  10  30
San Angelo  61  86  63  81  63 /   5   5  10  10  40
Junction  59  81  64  79  63 /   5   0  10  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/26





000
FXUS64 KSJT 022025
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
325 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Quiet in the short term, before the main action starts next week.
Surface high pressure across the southeast US will shift even
farther east through Sunday. As the upper level trough moves onto
the West Coast by Sunday afternoon, lee trough will strengthen at
the surface. Pressure gradient will tighten and southerly winds will
begin to increase. This will keep overnight lows up tonight, with
temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees warmer than they were this
morning. Surface dewpoints are only in the mid 50s across much of
South Texas, so these increasing southerly winds will bring better
low level moisture to West Central Texas for Sunday, but not as
moist as it could be for the first week in May. That moisture will
wait til later in the week.

May see a little more cloud cover on Sunday, so although 850mb
temperatures climb about a degree C, we may see actual highs Sunday
afternoon near where they end up today.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night-Saturday)

Chances for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall and a few severe storms return Tuesday through Friday.
Could see some light rain showers on Monday as deep moisture returns
from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching upper level
disturbance from northern Mexico.

The best chance for rain should be on Tuesday and Tuesday night
as a strong upper level shortwave trough moves across the area.
With moderate CAPE values between 1500 and 2000J/KG, may see a
few storms produce large hail and damaging winds along with
locally heavy rainfall.

Look for chances of strong to severe thunderstorms to continue Wednesday
through Saturday along the dryline as the upper level flow pattern
continues from the southwest and surface based CAPE values
continue to increase. This flow pattern is favorable for periodic
upper level disturbances to track across West Central Texas,
triggering thunderstorms along the dryline or anytime during the
day or night. In these type of weather patterns, it can be
difficult to pinpoint timing. For this reason, continued chance
Pops through much of the period. Because of increasing gulf
moisture, southeast breezes and increasing cloud cover, look for
high temperatures to remain mostly in the lower 80s this week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  83  62  80  62 /   0   5  10  10  30
San Angelo  61  86  63  81  63 /   5   5  10  10  40
Junction  59  81  64  79  63 /   5   0  10  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/26





000
FXUS64 KSJT 022025
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
325 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Quiet in the short term, before the main action starts next week.
Surface high pressure across the southeast US will shift even
farther east through Sunday. As the upper level trough moves onto
the West Coast by Sunday afternoon, lee trough will strengthen at
the surface. Pressure gradient will tighten and southerly winds will
begin to increase. This will keep overnight lows up tonight, with
temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees warmer than they were this
morning. Surface dewpoints are only in the mid 50s across much of
South Texas, so these increasing southerly winds will bring better
low level moisture to West Central Texas for Sunday, but not as
moist as it could be for the first week in May. That moisture will
wait til later in the week.

May see a little more cloud cover on Sunday, so although 850mb
temperatures climb about a degree C, we may see actual highs Sunday
afternoon near where they end up today.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night-Saturday)

Chances for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall and a few severe storms return Tuesday through Friday.
Could see some light rain showers on Monday as deep moisture returns
from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching upper level
disturbance from northern Mexico.

The best chance for rain should be on Tuesday and Tuesday night
as a strong upper level shortwave trough moves across the area.
With moderate CAPE values between 1500 and 2000J/KG, may see a
few storms produce large hail and damaging winds along with
locally heavy rainfall.

Look for chances of strong to severe thunderstorms to continue Wednesday
through Saturday along the dryline as the upper level flow pattern
continues from the southwest and surface based CAPE values
continue to increase. This flow pattern is favorable for periodic
upper level disturbances to track across West Central Texas,
triggering thunderstorms along the dryline or anytime during the
day or night. In these type of weather patterns, it can be
difficult to pinpoint timing. For this reason, continued chance
Pops through much of the period. Because of increasing gulf
moisture, southeast breezes and increasing cloud cover, look for
high temperatures to remain mostly in the lower 80s this week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  83  62  80  62 /   0   5  10  10  30
San Angelo  61  86  63  81  63 /   5   5  10  10  40
Junction  59  81  64  79  63 /   5   0  10  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/26





000
FXUS64 KMAF 022015
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening
hours.

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as well...in excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  85  62  78  /  10  20  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              55  86  65  80  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  88  56  83  /  10  10  10  50
DRYDEN TX                  59  85  67  82  /   0  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  90  64  82  /   0  20  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  84  56  79  /   0  10  10  30
HOBBS NM                   53  86  59  76  /  10  20  50  30
MARFA TX                   48  83  48  80  /   0  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  86  65  78  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  60  86  64  78  /  10  10  30  20
WINK TX                    58  91  64  82  /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 022015
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening
hours.

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as well...in excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  85  62  78  /  10  20  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              55  86  65  80  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  88  56  83  /  10  10  10  50
DRYDEN TX                  59  85  67  82  /   0  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  90  64  82  /   0  20  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  84  56  79  /   0  10  10  30
HOBBS NM                   53  86  59  76  /  10  20  50  30
MARFA TX                   48  83  48  80  /   0  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  86  65  78  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  60  86  64  78  /  10  10  30  20
WINK TX                    58  91  64  82  /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 022012
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEASONALLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
BRANCH JET. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE STATE ONE MORE DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOST STORM CHANCES
MONDAY AFERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...BUT ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE EXTREME WESTERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE BIGGER THREAT MAY COME FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE THE
GROUND IS NEAR SATURATION IN MANY LOCATIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.

THERE SHOULD BE PERIOD OF BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER....ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE MID WEEK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
LOW AND REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP NORTH TEXAS MOIST AND UNSETTLED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING LESS ACTIVE
WEATHER TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1242 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE ACROSS THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAF SITES.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...AFTERNOON FEW TO SCT VFR CU WILL
CONTINUE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10-13 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS OF UP TO 15-18 KNOTS. A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STREAM IN
FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNDOWN THIS EVENING. SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR WITH VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS...WINDS MAY INCREASE A TAD FOR THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE DFW TAF SITE WITH WIND SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15-18
KNOTS.

FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...AFTERNOON FEW TO SCT VFR CU ARE EXPECTED
WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10-13 KNOTS. DIURNAL CU
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND WILL RE-DEVELOP AROUND MID-
MORNING ON SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

15-BAIN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  83  64  84  64 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              57  82  63  83  64 /   5   5  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             60  80  59  84  60 /  10   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            58  82  62  83  59 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  61  82  58 /  10   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            63  83  64  84  63 /  10   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           59  83  64  82  61 /  10   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  63  84  64 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            58  81  62  82  63 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  61  82  62 /   5   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

15/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 022012
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEASONALLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS WITH PERSISTENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
BRANCH JET. SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE STATE ONE MORE DAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGHS APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH WILL IN TURN HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOST STORM CHANCES
MONDAY AFERNOON WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...BUT ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE EXTREME WESTERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE BIGGER THREAT MAY COME FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE THE
GROUND IS NEAR SATURATION IN MANY LOCATIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.

THERE SHOULD BE PERIOD OF BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER....ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS. THE
BEST WINDOW OF TIME FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE MID WEEK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED
LOW AND REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP NORTH TEXAS MOIST AND UNSETTLED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING LESS ACTIVE
WEATHER TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1242 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE ACROSS THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAF SITES.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...AFTERNOON FEW TO SCT VFR CU WILL
CONTINUE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10-13 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS OF UP TO 15-18 KNOTS. A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STREAM IN
FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNDOWN THIS EVENING. SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR WITH VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS...WINDS MAY INCREASE A TAD FOR THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE DFW TAF SITE WITH WIND SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15-18
KNOTS.

FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...AFTERNOON FEW TO SCT VFR CU ARE EXPECTED
WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10-13 KNOTS. DIURNAL CU
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND WILL RE-DEVELOP AROUND MID-
MORNING ON SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

15-BAIN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  83  64  84  64 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              57  82  63  83  64 /   5   5  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             60  80  59  84  60 /  10   5   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            58  82  62  83  59 /   5   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          58  82  61  82  58 /  10   5   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            63  83  64  84  63 /  10   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           59  83  64  82  61 /  10   5   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         59  81  63  84  64 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            58  81  62  82  63 /   5   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  61  82  62 /   5   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

15/79



000
FXUS64 KLUB 022009
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
309 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
FLATTENING UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY HAS STREAMED IN SCT-BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE CWA PER 20Z METARS...COURTESY OF SFC LEE
TROUGHING PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS BREEZY S-
SW/DOWNSLOPE SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS/. WEAK
EMBEDDED PULSES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...ALONG WITH
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ONCE AGAIN
FIRING UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF ERN NM. 15-20 KTS OF W-
SW MEAN FLOW COULD PERHAPS ENCOURAGE A FEW LINGERING STORMS TO
NEAR/MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER SUGGESTS A VERY LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA SHOWERS AND/OR A BRIEF WIND
GUST BEING THE RULE. IF NONE OF THOSE INSTANCES TAKE PLACE...CLOUD
DEBRIS FILTERING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT...BUT IT WILL
NOT BE NON-EXISTENT AS INDICTED BY MOS GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS HOLDING
AOA 10-15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS AN UA PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BE NEARING SRN CALI/NRN BAJA BY THE AFTN. UA RIDGING WILL
BE SLIDING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL. AS SUCH...SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN WHILST
SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES WRN SOUTH
PLAINS...THEREBY DRAGGING A DRYLINE ONTO THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS BY
LATE AFTN. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEAR TO BE
ADEQUATE...GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT CI ACROSS THE TX/NM
BORDER AND THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE SAID TIME. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED...THOUGH BETTER MOISTENING IS NOTED IN
THE MID LEVELS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. CIN IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
THE TX/NM BORDER BY LATE AFTN...WITH CIN INCREASING EWRD. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH-BASED...MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG /AND WEAK SHEAR/ WILL EXIST WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE STORMS TO
WANE AS IT SHIFTS EAST GIVEN GREATER CIN THERE...THUS LOCALES ON THE
CAPROCK ARE MOST PREFERRED FOR BEST POPS. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ AND SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS...TEMPS WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE NORM ON SUNDAY /MIDDLE
80S/. /29


.LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE BY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY PRECEDED
BY INITIAL DISTURBANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH MOISTURE
DEEPENING. INITIAL DISTURBANCES SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN ZONES WITH
BEST CHANCES AND RAINFALL TOTALS...THOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA IT SHOULD SPREAD HIGH
PROBABILITIES AREA-WIDE WITH BETTER TOTALS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
AS WELL.

UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD UNWIND A BIT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
STILL WILL LAY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. AND BEFORE WE HAVE TIME TO
TAKE MUCH OF A BREAK YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. DETAILS IN THE THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL RUNS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LATEST SUPERBLEND TRENDS TO RETAIN CHANCES FAVORING
THE EASTERN HALF OR TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.

STILL NOT MUCH CLARITY REGARDING SEVERE THREAT. THE PATTERN EARLY
IN THE WEEK ANALOGS TO A WELL-KNOWN THREAT...BUT OTHER INGREDIENTS
STILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER. SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD
WHILE MOISTURE MAY BE TOO ABUNDANT AT TIMES...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...
TO DEVELOP DISCRETE CELLS. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
THREAT CENTERED TUESDAY FOR NOW./05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  86  53  74 /  10  30  20  50
TULIA         53  84  57  76 /  10  10  30  40
PLAINVIEW     54  83  56  75 /  10  10  30  40
LEVELLAND     54  86  55  76 /  10  20  30  50
LUBBOCK       56  86  59  76 /  10  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   54  87  55  77 /   0  20  20  50
BROWNFIELD    55  86  58  77 /   0  20  20  40
CHILDRESS     57  86  61  79 /  10   0  10  20
SPUR          56  84  59  77 /   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     58  84  60  78 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 022009
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
309 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
FLATTENING UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY HAS STREAMED IN SCT-BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE CWA PER 20Z METARS...COURTESY OF SFC LEE
TROUGHING PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS BREEZY S-
SW/DOWNSLOPE SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS/. WEAK
EMBEDDED PULSES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...ALONG WITH
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ONCE AGAIN
FIRING UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF ERN NM. 15-20 KTS OF W-
SW MEAN FLOW COULD PERHAPS ENCOURAGE A FEW LINGERING STORMS TO
NEAR/MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER SUGGESTS A VERY LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA SHOWERS AND/OR A BRIEF WIND
GUST BEING THE RULE. IF NONE OF THOSE INSTANCES TAKE PLACE...CLOUD
DEBRIS FILTERING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT...BUT IT WILL
NOT BE NON-EXISTENT AS INDICTED BY MOS GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS HOLDING
AOA 10-15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS AN UA PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BE NEARING SRN CALI/NRN BAJA BY THE AFTN. UA RIDGING WILL
BE SLIDING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL. AS SUCH...SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN WHILST
SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES WRN SOUTH
PLAINS...THEREBY DRAGGING A DRYLINE ONTO THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS BY
LATE AFTN. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEAR TO BE
ADEQUATE...GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT CI ACROSS THE TX/NM
BORDER AND THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE SAID TIME. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED...THOUGH BETTER MOISTENING IS NOTED IN
THE MID LEVELS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. CIN IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
THE TX/NM BORDER BY LATE AFTN...WITH CIN INCREASING EWRD. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH-BASED...MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG /AND WEAK SHEAR/ WILL EXIST WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE STORMS TO
WANE AS IT SHIFTS EAST GIVEN GREATER CIN THERE...THUS LOCALES ON THE
CAPROCK ARE MOST PREFERRED FOR BEST POPS. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ AND SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS...TEMPS WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE NORM ON SUNDAY /MIDDLE
80S/. /29


.LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE BY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY PRECEDED
BY INITIAL DISTURBANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH MOISTURE
DEEPENING. INITIAL DISTURBANCES SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN ZONES WITH
BEST CHANCES AND RAINFALL TOTALS...THOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA IT SHOULD SPREAD HIGH
PROBABILITIES AREA-WIDE WITH BETTER TOTALS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
AS WELL.

UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD UNWIND A BIT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
STILL WILL LAY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. AND BEFORE WE HAVE TIME TO
TAKE MUCH OF A BREAK YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. DETAILS IN THE THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL RUNS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LATEST SUPERBLEND TRENDS TO RETAIN CHANCES FAVORING
THE EASTERN HALF OR TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.

STILL NOT MUCH CLARITY REGARDING SEVERE THREAT. THE PATTERN EARLY
IN THE WEEK ANALOGS TO A WELL-KNOWN THREAT...BUT OTHER INGREDIENTS
STILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER. SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD
WHILE MOISTURE MAY BE TOO ABUNDANT AT TIMES...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...
TO DEVELOP DISCRETE CELLS. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
THREAT CENTERED TUESDAY FOR NOW./05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  86  53  74 /  10  30  20  50
TULIA         53  84  57  76 /  10  10  30  40
PLAINVIEW     54  83  56  75 /  10  10  30  40
LEVELLAND     54  86  55  76 /  10  20  30  50
LUBBOCK       56  86  59  76 /  10  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   54  87  55  77 /   0  20  20  50
BROWNFIELD    55  86  58  77 /   0  20  20  40
CHILDRESS     57  86  61  79 /  10   0  10  20
SPUR          56  84  59  77 /   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     58  84  60  78 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 022009
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
309 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
FLATTENING UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY HAS STREAMED IN SCT-BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE CWA PER 20Z METARS...COURTESY OF SFC LEE
TROUGHING PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS BREEZY S-
SW/DOWNSLOPE SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS/. WEAK
EMBEDDED PULSES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...ALONG WITH
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ONCE AGAIN
FIRING UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF ERN NM. 15-20 KTS OF W-
SW MEAN FLOW COULD PERHAPS ENCOURAGE A FEW LINGERING STORMS TO
NEAR/MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER SUGGESTS A VERY LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA SHOWERS AND/OR A BRIEF WIND
GUST BEING THE RULE. IF NONE OF THOSE INSTANCES TAKE PLACE...CLOUD
DEBRIS FILTERING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT...BUT IT WILL
NOT BE NON-EXISTENT AS INDICTED BY MOS GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS HOLDING
AOA 10-15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS AN UA PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BE NEARING SRN CALI/NRN BAJA BY THE AFTN. UA RIDGING WILL
BE SLIDING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL. AS SUCH...SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN WHILST
SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES WRN SOUTH
PLAINS...THEREBY DRAGGING A DRYLINE ONTO THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS BY
LATE AFTN. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEAR TO BE
ADEQUATE...GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT CI ACROSS THE TX/NM
BORDER AND THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE SAID TIME. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED...THOUGH BETTER MOISTENING IS NOTED IN
THE MID LEVELS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. CIN IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
THE TX/NM BORDER BY LATE AFTN...WITH CIN INCREASING EWRD. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH-BASED...MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG /AND WEAK SHEAR/ WILL EXIST WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE STORMS TO
WANE AS IT SHIFTS EAST GIVEN GREATER CIN THERE...THUS LOCALES ON THE
CAPROCK ARE MOST PREFERRED FOR BEST POPS. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ AND SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS...TEMPS WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE NORM ON SUNDAY /MIDDLE
80S/. /29


.LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE BY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY PRECEDED
BY INITIAL DISTURBANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH MOISTURE
DEEPENING. INITIAL DISTURBANCES SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN ZONES WITH
BEST CHANCES AND RAINFALL TOTALS...THOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA IT SHOULD SPREAD HIGH
PROBABILITIES AREA-WIDE WITH BETTER TOTALS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
AS WELL.

UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD UNWIND A BIT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
STILL WILL LAY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. AND BEFORE WE HAVE TIME TO
TAKE MUCH OF A BREAK YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. DETAILS IN THE THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL RUNS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LATEST SUPERBLEND TRENDS TO RETAIN CHANCES FAVORING
THE EASTERN HALF OR TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.

STILL NOT MUCH CLARITY REGARDING SEVERE THREAT. THE PATTERN EARLY
IN THE WEEK ANALOGS TO A WELL-KNOWN THREAT...BUT OTHER INGREDIENTS
STILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER. SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD
WHILE MOISTURE MAY BE TOO ABUNDANT AT TIMES...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...
TO DEVELOP DISCRETE CELLS. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
THREAT CENTERED TUESDAY FOR NOW./05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  86  53  74 /  10  30  20  50
TULIA         53  84  57  76 /  10  10  30  40
PLAINVIEW     54  83  56  75 /  10  10  30  40
LEVELLAND     54  86  55  76 /  10  20  30  50
LUBBOCK       56  86  59  76 /  10  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   54  87  55  77 /   0  20  20  50
BROWNFIELD    55  86  58  77 /   0  20  20  40
CHILDRESS     57  86  61  79 /  10   0  10  20
SPUR          56  84  59  77 /   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     58  84  60  78 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 022009
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
309 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
FLATTENING UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY HAS STREAMED IN SCT-BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE CWA PER 20Z METARS...COURTESY OF SFC LEE
TROUGHING PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS BREEZY S-
SW/DOWNSLOPE SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS/. WEAK
EMBEDDED PULSES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...ALONG WITH
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ONCE AGAIN
FIRING UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF ERN NM. 15-20 KTS OF W-
SW MEAN FLOW COULD PERHAPS ENCOURAGE A FEW LINGERING STORMS TO
NEAR/MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER SUGGESTS A VERY LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA SHOWERS AND/OR A BRIEF WIND
GUST BEING THE RULE. IF NONE OF THOSE INSTANCES TAKE PLACE...CLOUD
DEBRIS FILTERING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT...BUT IT WILL
NOT BE NON-EXISTENT AS INDICTED BY MOS GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS HOLDING
AOA 10-15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS AN UA PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BE NEARING SRN CALI/NRN BAJA BY THE AFTN. UA RIDGING WILL
BE SLIDING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL. AS SUCH...SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN WHILST
SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES WRN SOUTH
PLAINS...THEREBY DRAGGING A DRYLINE ONTO THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS BY
LATE AFTN. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEAR TO BE
ADEQUATE...GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT CI ACROSS THE TX/NM
BORDER AND THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE SAID TIME. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED...THOUGH BETTER MOISTENING IS NOTED IN
THE MID LEVELS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. CIN IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
THE TX/NM BORDER BY LATE AFTN...WITH CIN INCREASING EWRD. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH-BASED...MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG /AND WEAK SHEAR/ WILL EXIST WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE STORMS TO
WANE AS IT SHIFTS EAST GIVEN GREATER CIN THERE...THUS LOCALES ON THE
CAPROCK ARE MOST PREFERRED FOR BEST POPS. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ AND SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS...TEMPS WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE NORM ON SUNDAY /MIDDLE
80S/. /29


.LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE BY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY PRECEDED
BY INITIAL DISTURBANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH MOISTURE
DEEPENING. INITIAL DISTURBANCES SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN ZONES WITH
BEST CHANCES AND RAINFALL TOTALS...THOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA IT SHOULD SPREAD HIGH
PROBABILITIES AREA-WIDE WITH BETTER TOTALS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
AS WELL.

UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD UNWIND A BIT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
STILL WILL LAY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. AND BEFORE WE HAVE TIME TO
TAKE MUCH OF A BREAK YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. DETAILS IN THE THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL RUNS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LATEST SUPERBLEND TRENDS TO RETAIN CHANCES FAVORING
THE EASTERN HALF OR TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.

STILL NOT MUCH CLARITY REGARDING SEVERE THREAT. THE PATTERN EARLY
IN THE WEEK ANALOGS TO A WELL-KNOWN THREAT...BUT OTHER INGREDIENTS
STILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER. SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD
WHILE MOISTURE MAY BE TOO ABUNDANT AT TIMES...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...
TO DEVELOP DISCRETE CELLS. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
THREAT CENTERED TUESDAY FOR NOW./05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  86  53  74 /  10  30  20  50
TULIA         53  84  57  76 /  10  10  30  40
PLAINVIEW     54  83  56  75 /  10  10  30  40
LEVELLAND     54  86  55  76 /  10  20  30  50
LUBBOCK       56  86  59  76 /  10  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   54  87  55  77 /   0  20  20  50
BROWNFIELD    55  86  58  77 /   0  20  20  40
CHILDRESS     57  86  61  79 /  10   0  10  20
SPUR          56  84  59  77 /   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     58  84  60  78 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 022006
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
FLATTENING UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY HAS STREAMED IN SCT-BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS THE CWA PER 20Z METARS...COURTESY OF SFC LEE TROUGHING
PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS BREEZY S-
SW/DOWNSLOPE SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS/. WEAK
EMBEDDED PULSES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...ALONG WITH
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ONCE AGAIN
FIRING UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF ERN NM. 15-20 KTS OF W-
SW MEAN FLOW COULD PERHAPS ENCOURAGE A FEW LINGERING STORMS TO
NEAR/MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER SUGGESTS A VERY LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA SHOWERS AND/OR A BRIEF WIND
GUST BEING THE RULE. IF NONE OF THOSE INSTANCES TAKE PLACE...CLOUD
DEBRIS FILTERING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT...BUT IT WILL
NOT BE NON-EXISTENT AS INDICTED BY MOS GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS HOLDING
AOA 10-15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS AN UA PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BE NEARING SRN CALI/NRN BAJA BY THE AFTN. UA RIDGING WILL
BE SLIDING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL. AS SUCH...SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN WHILST
SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES WRN SOUTH
PLAINS...THEREBY DRAGGING A DRYLINE ONTO THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS BY
LATE AFTN. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEAR TO BE
ADEQUATE...GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT CI ACROSS THE TX/NM
BORDER AND THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE SAID TIME. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED...THOUGH BETTER MOISTENING IS NOTED IN
THE MID LEVELS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. CIN IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
THE TX/NM BORDER BY LATE AFTN...WITH CIN INCREASING EWRD. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH-BASED...MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG /AND WEAK SHEAR/ WILL EXIST WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE STORMS TO
WANE AS IT SHIFTS EAST GIVEN GREATER CIN THERE...THUS LOCALES ON THE
CAPROCK ARE MOST PREFERRED FOR BEST POPS. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ AND SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS...TEMPS WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE NORM ON SUNDAY /MIDDLE
80S/. /29


.LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE BY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY PRECEDED
BY INITIAL DISTURBANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH MOISTURE
DEEPENING. INITIAL DISTURBANCES SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN ZONES WITH
BEST CHANCES AND RAINFALL TOTALS...THOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA IT SHOULD SPREAD HIGH
PROBABILITIES AREA-WIDE WITH BETTER TOTALS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
AS WELL.

UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD UNWIND A BIT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
STILL WILL LAY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. AND BEFORE WE HAVE TIME TO
TAKE MUCH OF A BREAK YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. DETAILS IN THE THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL RUNS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LATEST SUPERBLEND TRENDS TO RETAIN CHANCES FAVORING
THE EASTERN HALF OR TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.

STILL NOT MUCH CLARITY REGARDING SEVERE THREAT. THE PATTERN EARLY
IN THE WEEK ANALOGS TO A WELL-KNOWN THREAT...BUT OTHER INGREDIENTS
STILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER. SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD
WHILE MOISTURE MAY BE TOO ABUNDANT AT TIMES...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...
TO DEVELOP DISCRETE CELLS. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
THREAT CENTERED TUESDAY FOR NOW./05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  86  53  74 /  10  30  20  50
TULIA         53  84  57  76 /  10  10  30  40
PLAINVIEW     54  83  56  75 /  10  10  30  40
LEVELLAND     54  86  55  76 /  10  20  30  50
LUBBOCK       56  86  59  76 /  10  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   54  87  55  77 /   0  20  20  50
BROWNFIELD    55  86  58  77 /   0  20  20  40
CHILDRESS     57  86  61  79 /  10   0  10  20
SPUR          56  84  59  77 /   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     58  84  60  78 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05



000
FXUS64 KLUB 022006
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
FLATTENING UA RIDGING PASSING OVERHEAD TODAY HAS STREAMED IN SCT-BKN
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS STILL MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS THE CWA PER 20Z METARS...COURTESY OF SFC LEE TROUGHING
PROMOTING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS BREEZY S-
SW/DOWNSLOPE SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS/. WEAK
EMBEDDED PULSES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...ALONG WITH
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ONCE AGAIN
FIRING UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF ERN NM. 15-20 KTS OF W-
SW MEAN FLOW COULD PERHAPS ENCOURAGE A FEW LINGERING STORMS TO
NEAR/MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RATHER DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER SUGGESTS A VERY LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA SHOWERS AND/OR A BRIEF WIND
GUST BEING THE RULE. IF NONE OF THOSE INSTANCES TAKE PLACE...CLOUD
DEBRIS FILTERING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WILL BE PLAUSIBLE. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT...BUT IT WILL
NOT BE NON-EXISTENT AS INDICTED BY MOS GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS HOLDING
AOA 10-15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TOWARDS AN UA PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL BE NEARING SRN CALI/NRN BAJA BY THE AFTN. UA RIDGING WILL
BE SLIDING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL. AS SUCH...SFC LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN WHILST
SHIFTING EWRD TO ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLES WRN SOUTH
PLAINS...THEREBY DRAGGING A DRYLINE ONTO THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS BY
LATE AFTN. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEAR TO BE
ADEQUATE...GIVEN MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT CI ACROSS THE TX/NM
BORDER AND THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE SAID TIME. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED...THOUGH BETTER MOISTENING IS NOTED IN
THE MID LEVELS PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. CIN IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
THE TX/NM BORDER BY LATE AFTN...WITH CIN INCREASING EWRD. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGH-BASED...MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG /AND WEAK SHEAR/ WILL EXIST WHICH MAY LEAD TO STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE STORMS TO
WANE AS IT SHIFTS EAST GIVEN GREATER CIN THERE...THUS LOCALES ON THE
CAPROCK ARE MOST PREFERRED FOR BEST POPS. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ AND SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS...TEMPS WILL STILL WARM TO ABOVE NORM ON SUNDAY /MIDDLE
80S/. /29


.LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE BY JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY PRECEDED
BY INITIAL DISTURBANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH MOISTURE
DEEPENING. INITIAL DISTURBANCES SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN ZONES WITH
BEST CHANCES AND RAINFALL TOTALS...THOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA IT SHOULD SPREAD HIGH
PROBABILITIES AREA-WIDE WITH BETTER TOTALS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
AS WELL.

UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD UNWIND A BIT WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
STILL WILL LAY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. AND BEFORE WE HAVE TIME TO
TAKE MUCH OF A BREAK YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. DETAILS IN THE THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL RUNS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND LATEST SUPERBLEND TRENDS TO RETAIN CHANCES FAVORING
THE EASTERN HALF OR TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA.

STILL NOT MUCH CLARITY REGARDING SEVERE THREAT. THE PATTERN EARLY
IN THE WEEK ANALOGS TO A WELL-KNOWN THREAT...BUT OTHER INGREDIENTS
STILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER. SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AHEAD
WHILE MOISTURE MAY BE TOO ABUNDANT AT TIMES...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...
TO DEVELOP DISCRETE CELLS. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
THREAT CENTERED TUESDAY FOR NOW./05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  86  53  74 /  10  30  20  50
TULIA         53  84  57  76 /  10  10  30  40
PLAINVIEW     54  83  56  75 /  10  10  30  40
LEVELLAND     54  86  55  76 /  10  20  30  50
LUBBOCK       56  86  59  76 /  10  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   54  87  55  77 /   0  20  20  50
BROWNFIELD    55  86  58  77 /   0  20  20  40
CHILDRESS     57  86  61  79 /  10   0  10  20
SPUR          56  84  59  77 /   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     58  84  60  78 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 022005
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
205 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARM AIR INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ALSO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
MOUNTAIN AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SPLIT FLOW WILL EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SOUTHERLY BRANCH EXTENDING
THROUGH ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS AFTERNOON
RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS APPROACHING CALIFORNIA/BAJA
REGION WITH A SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF IT EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT SPARSE ACROSS THE CWA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN
THE 20S AND 30S WHILE PRECIPITABLE WILL BE AROUND .5 INCH SO
LIFTING FROM UPPER WAVE WILL INITIATE ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY AROUND MOUNTAIN AREAS. WHILE ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE 50
INDICATE RISK OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND DRY LIGHTNING
WITH ANY STORMS. THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA/BAJA
INTO WESTERN ARIZONA WITH SYSTEM MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. AS SYSTEM
APPROACHES INITIALLY BACKING FLOW AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT WILL ADVECT  MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA.
THUS PRECIPITABLE WATER WATER SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND .6 TO .8
INCH SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE WILL BE MOSTLY
ISOLATED AS CAPES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 50O J/KG MOST
LOCATIONS. MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
WHERE MOISTURE AMOUNTS WILL BR GREATER.

UPPER WAVE WEAKENS AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ALSO PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION. ASSOCIATED LIFT MAY PRODUCE A FEW STORMS OVER
NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY BUT OTHERWISE ADVECTION OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL END RAIN THREAT AND LOWER TEMPERATURES TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERLY BRANCH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS CALIFORNIA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO THE EAST. RESULTANT DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF
DRY AIR MASS SO EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10
AND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20KTS UNTIL 09Z. 09Z THRU 20Z WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THEN AFTR 20Z WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY.
AFT 18Z ISOLD HIGH BASE -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE GILA
WILDERNESS...NM BOOT HEEL AND SACRAMENTO MTNS. LOW VISIBILITIES AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION`S
WEATHER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AND MOVE
EAST. TODAY MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES CAN EXPECT A WARM AND DRY DAY
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE OVER THE
NM BOOT HEEL...GILA WILDERNESS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS WHERE ISOLATED
HIGH BASED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE BRINGS LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA INCREASING CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS ALL FIRE
WEATHER ZONES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS...HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES AND COOLER HIGH TEMPS TO THE AREA. LATE TUESDAY THE
SYSTEM LIFTS NE OF THE REGION AND DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES
OVER. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
AFTERNOONS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

TODAY MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
LOWLANDS. IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS MIN RH VALUES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 20S. MIN RH VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE TOMORROW AND MONDAY.
VENT RATES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 64  88  64  86  62 /   0   0  10  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           58  85  58  83  55 /   0   0  20  20  30
LAS CRUCES              57  85  54  83  52 /   0   0  10  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              58  86  57  83  55 /  10   0  10  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              46  65  45  62  42 /  10  20  20  30  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   56  83  54  81  51 /  10   0  10  20  20
SILVER CITY             50  77  49  74  44 /  10  20  10  20  30
DEMING                  54  85  52  83  49 /  10   0  10  10  20
LORDSBURG               52  83  51  81  47 /  10   0  10  10  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      64  87  63  85  61 /   0   0  10  10  20
DELL CITY               58  89  57  85  56 /   0  10  20  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            60  90  60  87  58 /   0   0  20  20  30
LOMA LINDA              60  82  59  80  57 /   0   0  10  20  30
FABENS                  59  88  59  86  57 /   0   0  10  10  20
SANTA TERESA            58  86  58  85  56 /   0   0  10  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          62  85  61  82  59 /   0   0  10  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           50  85  53  83  51 /   0   0  10  20  20
HATCH                   54  86  54  83  51 /  10   0  10  20  20
COLUMBUS                58  84  56  81  55 /  10   0  10  10  20
OROGRANDE               60  85  60  84  58 /   0   0  10  20  30
MAYHILL                 51  73  51  71  48 /  10  20  20  30  40
MESCALERO               49  74  49  71  45 /  10  20  20  30  40
TIMBERON                50  73  50  70  47 /  10  20  20  30  40
WINSTON                 47  76  46  72  43 /  10  20  20  30  30
HILLSBORO               52  81  51  79  47 /  10   0  10  20  20
SPACEPORT               51  85  51  82  49 /  10   0  10  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            44  75  47  73  43 /  10  20  10  30  30
HURLEY                  50  79  48  75  44 /  10   0  10  20  20
CLIFF                   50  82  49  80  44 /  10   0  10  20  20
MULE CREEK              44  79  43  77  38 /  10   0  10  20  20
FAYWOOD                 51  80  50  76  46 /  10   0   0  20  20
ANIMAS                  54  83  52  80  49 /  10   0  10  10  20
HACHITA                 52  83  50  81  48 /  10   0  10  10  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          53  82  50  80  47 /  10   0  10  10  10
CLOVERDALE              51  79  49  77  46 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/28 PAZOS




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 022005
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
205 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARM AIR INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ALSO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
MOUNTAIN AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE DRIER WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SPLIT FLOW WILL EXISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SOUTHERLY BRANCH EXTENDING
THROUGH ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS AFTERNOON
RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS APPROACHING CALIFORNIA/BAJA
REGION WITH A SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF IT EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT SPARSE ACROSS THE CWA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN
THE 20S AND 30S WHILE PRECIPITABLE WILL BE AROUND .5 INCH SO
LIFTING FROM UPPER WAVE WILL INITIATE ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY AROUND MOUNTAIN AREAS. WHILE ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE 50
INDICATE RISK OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND DRY LIGHTNING
WITH ANY STORMS. THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA/BAJA
INTO WESTERN ARIZONA WITH SYSTEM MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. AS SYSTEM
APPROACHES INITIALLY BACKING FLOW AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT WILL ADVECT  MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA.
THUS PRECIPITABLE WATER WATER SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND .6 TO .8
INCH SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. COVERAGE WILL BE MOSTLY
ISOLATED AS CAPES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AROUND 50O J/KG MOST
LOCATIONS. MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
WHERE MOISTURE AMOUNTS WILL BR GREATER.

UPPER WAVE WEAKENS AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ALSO PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION. ASSOCIATED LIFT MAY PRODUCE A FEW STORMS OVER
NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY BUT OTHERWISE ADVECTION OF COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL END RAIN THREAT AND LOWER TEMPERATURES TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER DEEP
UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERLY BRANCH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS CALIFORNIA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO THE EAST. RESULTANT DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF
DRY AIR MASS SO EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10
AND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20KTS UNTIL 09Z. 09Z THRU 20Z WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THEN AFTR 20Z WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY.
AFT 18Z ISOLD HIGH BASE -TSRA ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE GILA
WILDERNESS...NM BOOT HEEL AND SACRAMENTO MTNS. LOW VISIBILITIES AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION`S
WEATHER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AND MOVE
EAST. TODAY MOST FIRE WEATHER ZONES CAN EXPECT A WARM AND DRY DAY
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE OVER THE
NM BOOT HEEL...GILA WILDERNESS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS WHERE ISOLATED
HIGH BASED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE BRINGS LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA INCREASING CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS ALL FIRE
WEATHER ZONES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS...HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES AND COOLER HIGH TEMPS TO THE AREA. LATE TUESDAY THE
SYSTEM LIFTS NE OF THE REGION AND DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES
OVER. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
AFTERNOONS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

TODAY MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO LOW TEENS IN THE
LOWLANDS. IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS MIN RH VALUES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 20S. MIN RH VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE TOMORROW AND MONDAY.
VENT RATES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 64  88  64  86  62 /   0   0  10  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           58  85  58  83  55 /   0   0  20  20  30
LAS CRUCES              57  85  54  83  52 /   0   0  10  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              58  86  57  83  55 /  10   0  10  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              46  65  45  62  42 /  10  20  20  30  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   56  83  54  81  51 /  10   0  10  20  20
SILVER CITY             50  77  49  74  44 /  10  20  10  20  30
DEMING                  54  85  52  83  49 /  10   0  10  10  20
LORDSBURG               52  83  51  81  47 /  10   0  10  10  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      64  87  63  85  61 /   0   0  10  10  20
DELL CITY               58  89  57  85  56 /   0  10  20  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            60  90  60  87  58 /   0   0  20  20  30
LOMA LINDA              60  82  59  80  57 /   0   0  10  20  30
FABENS                  59  88  59  86  57 /   0   0  10  10  20
SANTA TERESA            58  86  58  85  56 /   0   0  10  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          62  85  61  82  59 /   0   0  10  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           50  85  53  83  51 /   0   0  10  20  20
HATCH                   54  86  54  83  51 /  10   0  10  20  20
COLUMBUS                58  84  56  81  55 /  10   0  10  10  20
OROGRANDE               60  85  60  84  58 /   0   0  10  20  30
MAYHILL                 51  73  51  71  48 /  10  20  20  30  40
MESCALERO               49  74  49  71  45 /  10  20  20  30  40
TIMBERON                50  73  50  70  47 /  10  20  20  30  40
WINSTON                 47  76  46  72  43 /  10  20  20  30  30
HILLSBORO               52  81  51  79  47 /  10   0  10  20  20
SPACEPORT               51  85  51  82  49 /  10   0  10  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            44  75  47  73  43 /  10  20  10  30  30
HURLEY                  50  79  48  75  44 /  10   0  10  20  20
CLIFF                   50  82  49  80  44 /  10   0  10  20  20
MULE CREEK              44  79  43  77  38 /  10   0  10  20  20
FAYWOOD                 51  80  50  76  46 /  10   0   0  20  20
ANIMAS                  54  83  52  80  49 /  10   0  10  10  20
HACHITA                 52  83  50  81  48 /  10   0  10  10  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          53  82  50  80  47 /  10   0  10  10  10
CLOVERDALE              51  79  49  77  46 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/28 PAZOS





000
FXUS64 KEWX 021953
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
253 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY A SLOWLY
MODIFYING AIRMASS AND NO IMPACT HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ANOTHER COMFORTABLE SPRING DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S KEEPING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES LOW. RESIDUAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SE CONUS AND MID-LVL RIDGING IS AIDING IN
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SUBSIDENCE WITH THIN CUMULUS CLOUDS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION NEAR 6000 FT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING BUT GREATER MOISTURE FLOW WILL FINALLY COMMENCE
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PWATS WILL RISE FROM THE
SATELLITE DERIVED 0.6" CURRENTLY TO NEAR 1-1.3" ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE RETURN MAY SUPPORT
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE MORNING AND MORE CLOUD COVER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FROM SURFACE HEATING PROCESSES. STILL EXPECT A
DRY DAY TOMORROW WITH SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING WEST
OF RIO GRANDE RIVER AS LOW-LVLS LOOK TO REMAIN TOO DRY EAST IN
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS FOR
HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS GIVEN THE MOISTURE INFLUX.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE FORM THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH REGION SITUATED UNDER STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS TO THE NORTH. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL IMPACT WEATHER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CURRENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL HAVE
SHIFTED EAST AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SMALL
IMPULSES AHEAD OF IT WILL BEGIN INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE
REGION. STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL RESULT...AIDING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH PWATS RISING INTO THE 1.5-1.6" THAT WILL
REMAIN IN TACT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MONDAY WILL FEATURE LOW END
30% RAIN AND TSTORM CHANCES WITH INCREASING VALUES GOING INTO
TUESDAY AS THE STRONGER PARENT LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THE BULK OF FORCING SHOULD GO NORTH BUT WITH ACTIVE
DRYLINE ACTIVITY RESULTING AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER SOME
HEIGHT FALLS...TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GREATEST
CHANCES IN THE HILL COUNTRY. INSTABILITY /1500 J/KG/ AND LAPSE
RATES />7C/KM/ DO NOT APPEAR OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT THIS TREND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK...THE FIRST S/WV WILL PASS INTO THE PLAINS
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST H7-H5 FLOW OVER THE REGION AND AMPLE
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW END RAIN AND TSTORM
CHANCES IN THE 30-40% RANGE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY...GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS BUT EVENTUALLY TAKE MOST OF THE ENERGY INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH PLAINS. SOME RESIDUAL EFFECTS SIMILAR TO THE
FIRST WAVE MAY BE FELT BUT BULK OF ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NORTH OF
THE REGION. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  84  64  83  65 /   0  10  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  55  85  62  82  65 /   0  10  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  84  64  82  65 /   0  10  10  20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            57  83  62  81  64 /   0  10  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  87  67  83  67 /   0  10  20  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  83  63  82  64 /   0  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  84  66  82  66 /   0  10  10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  83  64  82  65 /   0  10  10  20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  85  63  83  65 /   0  10  10  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  86  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  86  66  83  67 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33



000
FXUS64 KBRO 021951
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
251 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
AS WELL WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS...WEST
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 20 TO 25
KTS AT 925MB.

TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING IF WINDS DROP LOW
ENOUGH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
RETURNED MOISTURE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
REESTABLISHED...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE GONE AND REPLACED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LEE TROUGHING AND THE MIXING DOWN OF
WINDS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. A
FEW MORE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH 1000 TO 500MB LAYER RH REMAINING BELOW 70 PERCENT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MOIST WITH THE 1000 TO 700MB LAYER RH
AT 70 TO 75 PERCENT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR UPWARDS TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AN OPEN WAVE MOVES INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE RIPPLES ASIDE TO THE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST INFLUX OF DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN OUR REGION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE 1000 TO 500RH SHOW VALUES OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT
AND HIGHER EVEN FURTHER WEST WHERE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION NEAR ZAPATA...STARR AND JIM HOGG COUNTY. THE CLOUD DECK
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY. INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY NE
AND E ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PROVIDING A MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE BETTER DYNAMIC STILL REMAINS FURTHER NORTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERNGENCE BUT CONVECTION WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE ON THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM TO ENTER THE CWA. AREAS THAT WILL BE FAVOR BY THIS ACTIVITY
STILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MID WEST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE CA COAST WHICH WILL CREATE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST
OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE GRADIENT AS IT STRENGTHENS
SO WILL THE SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
BUT WILL NOT BE AS DEEP MOISTURE WHICH WILL MAINLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
COULD ENHANCE A ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90
DEGREES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE. AS A RESULT
...INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT TO 2 TO 4 FEET
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
TO THE NORTH BUT WILL STILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INLAND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY KEEPING A MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SEAS WILL BUILD CLOSE TO 6
FEET LATE TUESDAY DUE TO THE LONG SE FETCH AND INCREASE IN WINDS. SCEC CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  81  71  82 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          70  82  71  84 /  10  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            68  84  70  84 /  10  20  10  20
MCALLEN              69  85  71  86 /  10  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      68  86  69  86 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  78  72  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

58/67




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021951
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
251 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
AS WELL WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS...WEST
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 20 TO 25
KTS AT 925MB.

TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING IF WINDS DROP LOW
ENOUGH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
RETURNED MOISTURE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
REESTABLISHED...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE GONE AND REPLACED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LEE TROUGHING AND THE MIXING DOWN OF
WINDS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. A
FEW MORE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH 1000 TO 500MB LAYER RH REMAINING BELOW 70 PERCENT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MOIST WITH THE 1000 TO 700MB LAYER RH
AT 70 TO 75 PERCENT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR UPWARDS TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AN OPEN WAVE MOVES INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE RIPPLES ASIDE TO THE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST INFLUX OF DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN OUR REGION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE 1000 TO 500RH SHOW VALUES OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT
AND HIGHER EVEN FURTHER WEST WHERE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION NEAR ZAPATA...STARR AND JIM HOGG COUNTY. THE CLOUD DECK
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY. INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY NE
AND E ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PROVIDING A MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE BETTER DYNAMIC STILL REMAINS FURTHER NORTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERNGENCE BUT CONVECTION WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE ON THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM TO ENTER THE CWA. AREAS THAT WILL BE FAVOR BY THIS ACTIVITY
STILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MID WEST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE CA COAST WHICH WILL CREATE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST
OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE GRADIENT AS IT STRENGTHENS
SO WILL THE SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
BUT WILL NOT BE AS DEEP MOISTURE WHICH WILL MAINLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
COULD ENHANCE A ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90
DEGREES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE. AS A RESULT
...INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT TO 2 TO 4 FEET
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
TO THE NORTH BUT WILL STILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INLAND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY KEEPING A MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SEAS WILL BUILD CLOSE TO 6
FEET LATE TUESDAY DUE TO THE LONG SE FETCH AND INCREASE IN WINDS. SCEC CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  81  71  82 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          70  82  71  84 /  10  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            68  84  70  84 /  10  20  10  20
MCALLEN              69  85  71  86 /  10  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      68  86  69  86 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  78  72  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

58/67



000
FXUS64 KBRO 021951
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
251 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
AS WELL WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS...WEST
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 20 TO 25
KTS AT 925MB.

TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING IF WINDS DROP LOW
ENOUGH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
RETURNED MOISTURE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
REESTABLISHED...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE GONE AND REPLACED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LEE TROUGHING AND THE MIXING DOWN OF
WINDS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. A
FEW MORE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH 1000 TO 500MB LAYER RH REMAINING BELOW 70 PERCENT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MOIST WITH THE 1000 TO 700MB LAYER RH
AT 70 TO 75 PERCENT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR UPWARDS TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AN OPEN WAVE MOVES INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE RIPPLES ASIDE TO THE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST INFLUX OF DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN OUR REGION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE 1000 TO 500RH SHOW VALUES OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT
AND HIGHER EVEN FURTHER WEST WHERE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION NEAR ZAPATA...STARR AND JIM HOGG COUNTY. THE CLOUD DECK
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY. INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY NE
AND E ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PROVIDING A MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE BETTER DYNAMIC STILL REMAINS FURTHER NORTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERNGENCE BUT CONVECTION WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE ON THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM TO ENTER THE CWA. AREAS THAT WILL BE FAVOR BY THIS ACTIVITY
STILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MID WEST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE CA COAST WHICH WILL CREATE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST
OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE GRADIENT AS IT STRENGTHENS
SO WILL THE SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
BUT WILL NOT BE AS DEEP MOISTURE WHICH WILL MAINLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
COULD ENHANCE A ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90
DEGREES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE. AS A RESULT
...INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT TO 2 TO 4 FEET
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
TO THE NORTH BUT WILL STILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INLAND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY KEEPING A MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SEAS WILL BUILD CLOSE TO 6
FEET LATE TUESDAY DUE TO THE LONG SE FETCH AND INCREASE IN WINDS. SCEC CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  81  71  82 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          70  82  71  84 /  10  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            68  84  70  84 /  10  20  10  20
MCALLEN              69  85  71  86 /  10  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      68  86  69  86 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  78  72  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

58/67



000
FXUS64 KBRO 021951
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
251 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
AS WELL WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS...WEST
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 20 TO 25
KTS AT 925MB.

TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING IF WINDS DROP LOW
ENOUGH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
RETURNED MOISTURE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
REESTABLISHED...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE GONE AND REPLACED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LEE TROUGHING AND THE MIXING DOWN OF
WINDS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. A
FEW MORE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH 1000 TO 500MB LAYER RH REMAINING BELOW 70 PERCENT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MOIST WITH THE 1000 TO 700MB LAYER RH
AT 70 TO 75 PERCENT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR UPWARDS TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AN OPEN WAVE MOVES INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE RIPPLES ASIDE TO THE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST INFLUX OF DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN OUR REGION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE 1000 TO 500RH SHOW VALUES OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT
AND HIGHER EVEN FURTHER WEST WHERE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION NEAR ZAPATA...STARR AND JIM HOGG COUNTY. THE CLOUD DECK
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY. INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY NE
AND E ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PROVIDING A MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE BETTER DYNAMIC STILL REMAINS FURTHER NORTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERNGENCE BUT CONVECTION WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE ON THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM TO ENTER THE CWA. AREAS THAT WILL BE FAVOR BY THIS ACTIVITY
STILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MID WEST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE CA COAST WHICH WILL CREATE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST
OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE GRADIENT AS IT STRENGTHENS
SO WILL THE SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
BUT WILL NOT BE AS DEEP MOISTURE WHICH WILL MAINLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
COULD ENHANCE A ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90
DEGREES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE. AS A RESULT
...INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT TO 2 TO 4 FEET
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
TO THE NORTH BUT WILL STILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INLAND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY KEEPING A MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SEAS WILL BUILD CLOSE TO 6
FEET LATE TUESDAY DUE TO THE LONG SE FETCH AND INCREASE IN WINDS. SCEC CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  81  71  82 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          70  82  71  84 /  10  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            68  84  70  84 /  10  20  10  20
MCALLEN              69  85  71  86 /  10  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      68  86  69  86 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  78  72  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

58/67



000
FXUS64 KBRO 021951
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
251 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
AS WELL WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS...WEST
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 20 TO 25
KTS AT 925MB.

TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING IF WINDS DROP LOW
ENOUGH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
RETURNED MOISTURE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
REESTABLISHED...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE GONE AND REPLACED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LEE TROUGHING AND THE MIXING DOWN OF
WINDS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. A
FEW MORE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH 1000 TO 500MB LAYER RH REMAINING BELOW 70 PERCENT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MOIST WITH THE 1000 TO 700MB LAYER RH
AT 70 TO 75 PERCENT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR UPWARDS TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AN OPEN WAVE MOVES INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE RIPPLES ASIDE TO THE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST INFLUX OF DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN OUR REGION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE 1000 TO 500RH SHOW VALUES OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT
AND HIGHER EVEN FURTHER WEST WHERE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION NEAR ZAPATA...STARR AND JIM HOGG COUNTY. THE CLOUD DECK
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY. INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY NE
AND E ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PROVIDING A MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE BETTER DYNAMIC STILL REMAINS FURTHER NORTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERNGENCE BUT CONVECTION WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE ON THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM TO ENTER THE CWA. AREAS THAT WILL BE FAVOR BY THIS ACTIVITY
STILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MID WEST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE CA COAST WHICH WILL CREATE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST
OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE GRADIENT AS IT STRENGTHENS
SO WILL THE SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
BUT WILL NOT BE AS DEEP MOISTURE WHICH WILL MAINLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
COULD ENHANCE A ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90
DEGREES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE. AS A RESULT
...INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT TO 2 TO 4 FEET
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
TO THE NORTH BUT WILL STILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INLAND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY KEEPING A MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SEAS WILL BUILD CLOSE TO 6
FEET LATE TUESDAY DUE TO THE LONG SE FETCH AND INCREASE IN WINDS. SCEC CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  81  71  82 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          70  82  71  84 /  10  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            68  84  70  84 /  10  20  10  20
MCALLEN              69  85  71  86 /  10  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      68  86  69  86 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  78  72  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

58/67



000
FXUS64 KBRO 021951
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
251 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
AS WELL WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS...WEST
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 20 TO 25
KTS AT 925MB.

TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING IF WINDS DROP LOW
ENOUGH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
RETURNED MOISTURE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
REESTABLISHED...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE GONE AND REPLACED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LEE TROUGHING AND THE MIXING DOWN OF
WINDS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. A
FEW MORE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH 1000 TO 500MB LAYER RH REMAINING BELOW 70 PERCENT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MOIST WITH THE 1000 TO 700MB LAYER RH
AT 70 TO 75 PERCENT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR UPWARDS TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AN OPEN WAVE MOVES INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE RIPPLES ASIDE TO THE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST INFLUX OF DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN OUR REGION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE 1000 TO 500RH SHOW VALUES OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT
AND HIGHER EVEN FURTHER WEST WHERE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION NEAR ZAPATA...STARR AND JIM HOGG COUNTY. THE CLOUD DECK
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY. INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY NE
AND E ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PROVIDING A MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE BETTER DYNAMIC STILL REMAINS FURTHER NORTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERNGENCE BUT CONVECTION WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE ON THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM TO ENTER THE CWA. AREAS THAT WILL BE FAVOR BY THIS ACTIVITY
STILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MID WEST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE CA COAST WHICH WILL CREATE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST
OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE GRADIENT AS IT STRENGTHENS
SO WILL THE SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
BUT WILL NOT BE AS DEEP MOISTURE WHICH WILL MAINLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
COULD ENHANCE A ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90
DEGREES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE. AS A RESULT
...INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT TO 2 TO 4 FEET
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
TO THE NORTH BUT WILL STILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INLAND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY KEEPING A MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SEAS WILL BUILD CLOSE TO 6
FEET LATE TUESDAY DUE TO THE LONG SE FETCH AND INCREASE IN WINDS. SCEC CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  81  71  82 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          70  82  71  84 /  10  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            68  84  70  84 /  10  20  10  20
MCALLEN              69  85  71  86 /  10  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      68  86  69  86 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  78  72  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

58/67



000
FXUS64 KCRP 021752 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 10-11Z SUNDAY FOR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA. ALSO COULD SEE PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND
COASTAL PLAINS THAT COULD LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS. MODELS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY
SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS.
EXPECT LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER OUT BY 15Z WITH BROKEN
CLOUD LAYER AROUND 5-6 KFT AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND. SO ONLY
MODIFICATION TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          84  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            88  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             86  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          83  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           87  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 021752 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 10-11Z SUNDAY FOR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA. ALSO COULD SEE PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND
COASTAL PLAINS THAT COULD LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS. MODELS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY
SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS.
EXPECT LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER OUT BY 15Z WITH BROKEN
CLOUD LAYER AROUND 5-6 KFT AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND. SO ONLY
MODIFICATION TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          84  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            88  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             86  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          83  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           87  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 021752 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 10-11Z SUNDAY FOR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA. ALSO COULD SEE PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND
COASTAL PLAINS THAT COULD LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS. MODELS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY
SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS.
EXPECT LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER OUT BY 15Z WITH BROKEN
CLOUD LAYER AROUND 5-6 KFT AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND. SO ONLY
MODIFICATION TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          84  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            88  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             86  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          83  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           87  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 021752 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 10-11Z SUNDAY FOR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA. ALSO COULD SEE PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND
COASTAL PLAINS THAT COULD LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS. MODELS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY
SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS.
EXPECT LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER OUT BY 15Z WITH BROKEN
CLOUD LAYER AROUND 5-6 KFT AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND. SO ONLY
MODIFICATION TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          84  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            88  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             86  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          83  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           87  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 021752 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 10-11Z SUNDAY FOR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA. ALSO COULD SEE PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND
COASTAL PLAINS THAT COULD LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS. MODELS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY
SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS.
EXPECT LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER OUT BY 15Z WITH BROKEN
CLOUD LAYER AROUND 5-6 KFT AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND. SO ONLY
MODIFICATION TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          84  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            88  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             86  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          83  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           87  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 021752 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 10-11Z SUNDAY FOR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA. ALSO COULD SEE PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND
COASTAL PLAINS THAT COULD LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS. MODELS INDICATE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY
SUNDAY MORNING THAT WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS.
EXPECT LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER OUT BY 15Z WITH BROKEN
CLOUD LAYER AROUND 5-6 KFT AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND. SO ONLY
MODIFICATION TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          84  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            88  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             86  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          83  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           87  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KHGX 021749
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR. A DEVELOPING CU DECK AND WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE THAT WILL
BRIEFLY BACK LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MORE EASTERLY LATTER TODAY. OVERNIGHT
MAINLY SKY CLEAR...NEAR CALM BREEZE...WITH POSSIBLE PRE-DAWN PATCHY
SHALLOW GROUND FORMATION ACROSS MORE RURAL TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN
SUNDAY`S ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TRANSLATES TO AROUND 10 KT
SOUTHERLIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNDER FEW-SCT EARLY DAY VFR DECKS.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED. ENJOY THE GREAT
SPRING WEATHER. 43


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.
TEMPS RUNNING IN THE 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER S ROCKIES AND INTO TX. THIS SHOULD
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS
TO TRACK. THE FIRST IS WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IS
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE ALUETIAN ISLANDS. THE
FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE S
ROCKIES TUE AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS WITH A NEG TILT ON WED.
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO TX WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN CHANCES. DURING THIS TIME THE SECOND UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON TUE AND THEN REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR W/SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPING NEXT THUR/FRI OVER MUCH OF TX.
IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS
TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUN INTO MON
NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON
TUE WITH NOT MUCH CAPPING AND THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE FIRST UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 50 POPS FOR SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A FEW STORMS. GFS SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED WED/THUR AS PRECIP WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.6-1.8
INCHES. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW 300MB JET BECOMING MORE SPLIT AND
DIFFLUENT OVER TX AND SHOW SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS TX.
FORECAST WILL GO WITH MAINLY 40 POPS WITH THE IDEA POPS COULD GO
HIGHER HAS DETAILS WITH THE JET STRUCTURE BECOME MORE CERTAIN.
THINK STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE BUT ALSO NOTE THAT THERE
SEEMS TO LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS A FRONT TO
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR STORM INITIATION DURING THIS TIME. THAT
SAID...GFS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SEVERE STORM WITH A HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT BUT THINK UPDRAFTS WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER MUCH OF SE TX AND GULF COAST.
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALSO START TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS IN PIECES SO OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 39

&&

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZE AND OTHER SMALL SCALE FEATURES.
FLOW WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ONSHORE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS BY MID WEEK WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      59  82  63  83  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  82  63  83  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  81  70  81  71 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 021749
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR. A DEVELOPING CU DECK AND WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE THAT WILL
BRIEFLY BACK LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MORE EASTERLY LATTER TODAY. OVERNIGHT
MAINLY SKY CLEAR...NEAR CALM BREEZE...WITH POSSIBLE PRE-DAWN PATCHY
SHALLOW GROUND FORMATION ACROSS MORE RURAL TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN
SUNDAY`S ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TRANSLATES TO AROUND 10 KT
SOUTHERLIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNDER FEW-SCT EARLY DAY VFR DECKS.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED. ENJOY THE GREAT
SPRING WEATHER. 43


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.
TEMPS RUNNING IN THE 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER S ROCKIES AND INTO TX. THIS SHOULD
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS
TO TRACK. THE FIRST IS WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IS
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE ALUETIAN ISLANDS. THE
FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE S
ROCKIES TUE AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS WITH A NEG TILT ON WED.
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO TX WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN CHANCES. DURING THIS TIME THE SECOND UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON TUE AND THEN REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR W/SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPING NEXT THUR/FRI OVER MUCH OF TX.
IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS
TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUN INTO MON
NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON
TUE WITH NOT MUCH CAPPING AND THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE FIRST UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 50 POPS FOR SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A FEW STORMS. GFS SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED WED/THUR AS PRECIP WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.6-1.8
INCHES. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW 300MB JET BECOMING MORE SPLIT AND
DIFFLUENT OVER TX AND SHOW SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS TX.
FORECAST WILL GO WITH MAINLY 40 POPS WITH THE IDEA POPS COULD GO
HIGHER HAS DETAILS WITH THE JET STRUCTURE BECOME MORE CERTAIN.
THINK STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE BUT ALSO NOTE THAT THERE
SEEMS TO LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS A FRONT TO
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR STORM INITIATION DURING THIS TIME. THAT
SAID...GFS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SEVERE STORM WITH A HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT BUT THINK UPDRAFTS WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER MUCH OF SE TX AND GULF COAST.
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALSO START TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS IN PIECES SO OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 39

&&

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZE AND OTHER SMALL SCALE FEATURES.
FLOW WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ONSHORE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS BY MID WEEK WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      59  82  63  83  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  82  63  83  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  81  70  81  71 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 021749
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR. A DEVELOPING CU DECK AND WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE THAT WILL
BRIEFLY BACK LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MORE EASTERLY LATTER TODAY. OVERNIGHT
MAINLY SKY CLEAR...NEAR CALM BREEZE...WITH POSSIBLE PRE-DAWN PATCHY
SHALLOW GROUND FORMATION ACROSS MORE RURAL TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN
SUNDAY`S ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TRANSLATES TO AROUND 10 KT
SOUTHERLIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNDER FEW-SCT EARLY DAY VFR DECKS.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED. ENJOY THE GREAT
SPRING WEATHER. 43


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.
TEMPS RUNNING IN THE 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER S ROCKIES AND INTO TX. THIS SHOULD
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS
TO TRACK. THE FIRST IS WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IS
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE ALUETIAN ISLANDS. THE
FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE S
ROCKIES TUE AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS WITH A NEG TILT ON WED.
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO TX WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN CHANCES. DURING THIS TIME THE SECOND UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON TUE AND THEN REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR W/SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPING NEXT THUR/FRI OVER MUCH OF TX.
IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS
TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUN INTO MON
NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON
TUE WITH NOT MUCH CAPPING AND THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE FIRST UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 50 POPS FOR SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A FEW STORMS. GFS SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED WED/THUR AS PRECIP WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.6-1.8
INCHES. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW 300MB JET BECOMING MORE SPLIT AND
DIFFLUENT OVER TX AND SHOW SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS TX.
FORECAST WILL GO WITH MAINLY 40 POPS WITH THE IDEA POPS COULD GO
HIGHER HAS DETAILS WITH THE JET STRUCTURE BECOME MORE CERTAIN.
THINK STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE BUT ALSO NOTE THAT THERE
SEEMS TO LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS A FRONT TO
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR STORM INITIATION DURING THIS TIME. THAT
SAID...GFS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SEVERE STORM WITH A HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT BUT THINK UPDRAFTS WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER MUCH OF SE TX AND GULF COAST.
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALSO START TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS IN PIECES SO OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 39

&&

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZE AND OTHER SMALL SCALE FEATURES.
FLOW WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ONSHORE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS BY MID WEEK WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      59  82  63  83  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  82  63  83  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  81  70  81  71 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 021749
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR. A DEVELOPING CU DECK AND WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE THAT WILL
BRIEFLY BACK LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MORE EASTERLY LATTER TODAY. OVERNIGHT
MAINLY SKY CLEAR...NEAR CALM BREEZE...WITH POSSIBLE PRE-DAWN PATCHY
SHALLOW GROUND FORMATION ACROSS MORE RURAL TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN
SUNDAY`S ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TRANSLATES TO AROUND 10 KT
SOUTHERLIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNDER FEW-SCT EARLY DAY VFR DECKS.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED. ENJOY THE GREAT
SPRING WEATHER. 43


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.
TEMPS RUNNING IN THE 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER S ROCKIES AND INTO TX. THIS SHOULD
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS
TO TRACK. THE FIRST IS WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IS
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE ALUETIAN ISLANDS. THE
FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE S
ROCKIES TUE AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS WITH A NEG TILT ON WED.
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO TX WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN CHANCES. DURING THIS TIME THE SECOND UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON TUE AND THEN REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR W/SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPING NEXT THUR/FRI OVER MUCH OF TX.
IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS
TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUN INTO MON
NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON
TUE WITH NOT MUCH CAPPING AND THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE FIRST UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 50 POPS FOR SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A FEW STORMS. GFS SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED WED/THUR AS PRECIP WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.6-1.8
INCHES. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW 300MB JET BECOMING MORE SPLIT AND
DIFFLUENT OVER TX AND SHOW SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS TX.
FORECAST WILL GO WITH MAINLY 40 POPS WITH THE IDEA POPS COULD GO
HIGHER HAS DETAILS WITH THE JET STRUCTURE BECOME MORE CERTAIN.
THINK STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE BUT ALSO NOTE THAT THERE
SEEMS TO LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS A FRONT TO
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR STORM INITIATION DURING THIS TIME. THAT
SAID...GFS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SEVERE STORM WITH A HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT BUT THINK UPDRAFTS WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER MUCH OF SE TX AND GULF COAST.
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALSO START TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS IN PIECES SO OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 39

&&

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZE AND OTHER SMALL SCALE FEATURES.
FLOW WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ONSHORE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS BY MID WEEK WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      59  82  63  83  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  82  63  83  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  81  70  81  71 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KEWX 021747
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION... /18Z TAF UPDATE/
GULF MOISTURE LAYER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
PROMOTE A ROUND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ABUNDANT VFR CUMULUS ARE FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE
RETURN OF MVFR CIGS IS SHOWN AS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
GUIDANCES...REACHING THE I-35 TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z AND
THE DRT AREA JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING FOR MONDAY...THE MFVR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS
SHOULD LAST THROUGH AROUND 17Z BEFORE LIFTING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND SOUTH
PLAINS...CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY RAISE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RAISE RH
VALUES INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.

BASICALLY...WARM AFTERNOONS AND MILD NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BEGINNING SUNDAY...A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
SPREADING NORTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (RGV) AND NORTH INTO
THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREAD ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE RGV MONDAY MORNING AND LOW END
CHC POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS...RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SOUTHWARD DIVING
LOW FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL CAUSE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE
EJECTING A SHORTWAVE NORTHEASTWARD AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT IN
THE PROCESS. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING OVERTOP THE MT AIR
IN PLACE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY IN
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. WITH PWAT VALUES TUESDAY ECLIPSING
1.5 INCHES AND SOME DECENT INSTABILITY TO BOOT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. QPF VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A BROAD CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH
INTO NEVADA AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER A BROAD AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
WITHOUT A CLEAR KINEMATIC LIFTING MECHANISM...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SAY WHICH DAYS WILL BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM POTENTIAL
BUT LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RESULT.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  57  83  65  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  56  83  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  57  83  64  80 /   0   0  10   0  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  56  81  62  80 /   0   0  -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  62  86  68  82 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  82  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  59  84  65  81 /   0   0  -   10  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  57  82  64  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  57  82  64  82 /   0   0  -    0  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  58  83  65  79 /   0   0  -   -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  59  84  66  81 /   0   0  10  -   30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 021747
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION... /18Z TAF UPDATE/
GULF MOISTURE LAYER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
PROMOTE A ROUND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ABUNDANT VFR CUMULUS ARE FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE
RETURN OF MVFR CIGS IS SHOWN AS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
GUIDANCES...REACHING THE I-35 TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z AND
THE DRT AREA JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING FOR MONDAY...THE MFVR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS
SHOULD LAST THROUGH AROUND 17Z BEFORE LIFTING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND SOUTH
PLAINS...CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY RAISE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RAISE RH
VALUES INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.

BASICALLY...WARM AFTERNOONS AND MILD NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BEGINNING SUNDAY...A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
SPREADING NORTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (RGV) AND NORTH INTO
THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREAD ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE RGV MONDAY MORNING AND LOW END
CHC POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS...RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SOUTHWARD DIVING
LOW FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL CAUSE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE
EJECTING A SHORTWAVE NORTHEASTWARD AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT IN
THE PROCESS. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING OVERTOP THE MT AIR
IN PLACE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY IN
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. WITH PWAT VALUES TUESDAY ECLIPSING
1.5 INCHES AND SOME DECENT INSTABILITY TO BOOT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. QPF VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A BROAD CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH
INTO NEVADA AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER A BROAD AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
WITHOUT A CLEAR KINEMATIC LIFTING MECHANISM...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SAY WHICH DAYS WILL BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM POTENTIAL
BUT LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RESULT.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  57  83  65  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  56  83  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  57  83  64  80 /   0   0  10   0  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  56  81  62  80 /   0   0  -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  62  86  68  82 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  82  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  59  84  65  81 /   0   0  -   10  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  57  82  64  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  57  82  64  82 /   0   0  -    0  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  58  83  65  79 /   0   0  -   -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  59  84  66  81 /   0   0  10  -   30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 021747
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION... /18Z TAF UPDATE/
GULF MOISTURE LAYER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
PROMOTE A ROUND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ABUNDANT VFR CUMULUS ARE FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE
RETURN OF MVFR CIGS IS SHOWN AS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
GUIDANCES...REACHING THE I-35 TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z AND
THE DRT AREA JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING FOR MONDAY...THE MFVR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS
SHOULD LAST THROUGH AROUND 17Z BEFORE LIFTING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND SOUTH
PLAINS...CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY RAISE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RAISE RH
VALUES INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.

BASICALLY...WARM AFTERNOONS AND MILD NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BEGINNING SUNDAY...A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
SPREADING NORTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (RGV) AND NORTH INTO
THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREAD ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE RGV MONDAY MORNING AND LOW END
CHC POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS...RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SOUTHWARD DIVING
LOW FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL CAUSE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE
EJECTING A SHORTWAVE NORTHEASTWARD AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT IN
THE PROCESS. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING OVERTOP THE MT AIR
IN PLACE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY IN
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. WITH PWAT VALUES TUESDAY ECLIPSING
1.5 INCHES AND SOME DECENT INSTABILITY TO BOOT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. QPF VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A BROAD CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH
INTO NEVADA AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER A BROAD AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
WITHOUT A CLEAR KINEMATIC LIFTING MECHANISM...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SAY WHICH DAYS WILL BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM POTENTIAL
BUT LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RESULT.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  57  83  65  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  56  83  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  57  83  64  80 /   0   0  10   0  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  56  81  62  80 /   0   0  -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  62  86  68  82 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  82  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  59  84  65  81 /   0   0  -   10  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  57  82  64  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  57  82  64  82 /   0   0  -    0  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  58  83  65  79 /   0   0  -   -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  59  84  66  81 /   0   0  10  -   30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 021747
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION... /18Z TAF UPDATE/
GULF MOISTURE LAYER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO
PROMOTE A ROUND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ABUNDANT VFR CUMULUS ARE FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE
RETURN OF MVFR CIGS IS SHOWN AS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
GUIDANCES...REACHING THE I-35 TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z AND
THE DRT AREA JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING FOR MONDAY...THE MFVR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS
SHOULD LAST THROUGH AROUND 17Z BEFORE LIFTING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND SOUTH
PLAINS...CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY RAISE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RAISE RH
VALUES INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.

BASICALLY...WARM AFTERNOONS AND MILD NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BEGINNING SUNDAY...A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
SPREADING NORTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (RGV) AND NORTH INTO
THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREAD ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE RGV MONDAY MORNING AND LOW END
CHC POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS...RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SOUTHWARD DIVING
LOW FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL CAUSE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE
EJECTING A SHORTWAVE NORTHEASTWARD AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT IN
THE PROCESS. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING OVERTOP THE MT AIR
IN PLACE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY IN
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. WITH PWAT VALUES TUESDAY ECLIPSING
1.5 INCHES AND SOME DECENT INSTABILITY TO BOOT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. QPF VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A BROAD CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH
INTO NEVADA AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER A BROAD AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
WITHOUT A CLEAR KINEMATIC LIFTING MECHANISM...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SAY WHICH DAYS WILL BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM POTENTIAL
BUT LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RESULT.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  57  83  65  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  56  83  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  57  83  64  80 /   0   0  10   0  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  56  81  62  80 /   0   0  -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  62  86  68  82 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  82  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  59  84  65  81 /   0   0  -   10  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  57  82  64  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  57  82  64  82 /   0   0  -    0  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  58  83  65  79 /   0   0  -   -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  59  84  66  81 /   0   0  10  -   30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...15
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KSJT 021746
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1246 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
through the period. Mainly southerly winds will continue, a little
stronger and with a few higher gusts during daylight hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. Winds
will be from the south today around 10 knots, with gusts around 16
knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Expect another 24 hours of beautiful weather. Highs today mainly in
the mid 80s look likely. Winds from the south will be slightly
stronger than yesterday, mainly in the 10 to 15 mph range. Overnight
tonight, lows will be mainly in the mid 50s, and winds will be from
the southeast to south around 10 mph or less.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Dry conditions will persist on Sunday as the eastward moving upper
ridge finally exits the area. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s will
likely be the warmest we will see for the next seven days.

Not much has changed in the last 24 hours; an upper low will
still move over southern California Sunday night and our winds
aloft will back to the southwest. The southern California upper
low will open with the upper trough lifting northeast over the
Northern Plains by Thursday. Models continue to show a much
stronger upper low moving over the Pacific northwest on Tuesday
and then moving south down the Pacific coastline through Friday.
In the meantime, a series of upper disturbances in the southwest
flow aloft will interact with an oscillating dryline over West
Texas through the end of the week, with a continued chance of
thunderstorms accompanied by good associated rainfall amounts. Afternoon
highs will mostly be in the 70s Monday and Tuesday with slightly
warmer highs in the lower 80s through the remainder of the week.
Morning lows will remain in the 60s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  60  83  62  79 /   0   0   5  10  10
San Angelo  85  61  86  63  81 /   0   5   5  10  30
Junction  81  59  81  64  79 /   0   5   0  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KSJT 021746
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1246 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
through the period. Mainly southerly winds will continue, a little
stronger and with a few higher gusts during daylight hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. Winds
will be from the south today around 10 knots, with gusts around 16
knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Expect another 24 hours of beautiful weather. Highs today mainly in
the mid 80s look likely. Winds from the south will be slightly
stronger than yesterday, mainly in the 10 to 15 mph range. Overnight
tonight, lows will be mainly in the mid 50s, and winds will be from
the southeast to south around 10 mph or less.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Dry conditions will persist on Sunday as the eastward moving upper
ridge finally exits the area. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s will
likely be the warmest we will see for the next seven days.

Not much has changed in the last 24 hours; an upper low will
still move over southern California Sunday night and our winds
aloft will back to the southwest. The southern California upper
low will open with the upper trough lifting northeast over the
Northern Plains by Thursday. Models continue to show a much
stronger upper low moving over the Pacific northwest on Tuesday
and then moving south down the Pacific coastline through Friday.
In the meantime, a series of upper disturbances in the southwest
flow aloft will interact with an oscillating dryline over West
Texas through the end of the week, with a continued chance of
thunderstorms accompanied by good associated rainfall amounts. Afternoon
highs will mostly be in the 70s Monday and Tuesday with slightly
warmer highs in the lower 80s through the remainder of the week.
Morning lows will remain in the 60s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  60  83  62  79 /   0   0   5  10  10
San Angelo  85  61  86  63  81 /   0   5   5  10  30
Junction  81  59  81  64  79 /   0   5   0  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KFWD 021742
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1242 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE ACROSS THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAF SITES.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...AFTERNOON FEW TO SCT VFR CU WILL
CONTINUE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10-13 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS OF UP TO 15-18 KNOTS. A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STREAM IN
FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNDOWN THIS EVENING. SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR WITH VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS...WINDS MAY INCREASE A TAD FOR THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE DFW TAF SITE WITH WIND SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15-18
KNOTS.

FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...AFTERNOON FEW TO SCT VFR CU ARE EXPECTED
WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10-13 KNOTS. DIURNAL CU
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND WILL RE-DEVELOP AROUND MID-
MORNING ON SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

15-BAIN

&&

.UPDATE...
THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT WERE MOVING ACROSS THE RED RIVER EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAVE SCATTERED OUT OR DISSIPATED. TEMPERATURES LATE THIS
MORNING ARE WARMING STEADILY UNDER ABUNDANT SUN AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

WE WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE MORNING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE NORTHERN ZONES AND BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES
IN MOST ZONES BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

IT IS GOING TO BE A GREAT WEEKEND TO ENJOY THE OUTDOORS BEFORE
THE RAIN RETURNS NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALREADY
STARTING TO MOVE OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THE 00Z
FORECAST MODEL RUNS FAILED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DENSE DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS CROSSING THE RED RIVER INTO NORTH TEXAS AS OF 3 AM. WILL
PREVAIL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A THINNING OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ON
SUNDAY...JUST ABOUT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S.

ON MONDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BE REPLACED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE-
RICH AIR INTO THE REGION AND DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO SET THE STAGE FOR RAIN CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARIZONA AND COLORADO...SPREADING LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. A FEW STRONG
OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
THREAT AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH +2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE NORTH- SOUTH
ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO INCREASES THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT
WE CONTINUE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A WET PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. OUR THINKING IS
THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUOUS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS LOW. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
IN A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT DUE TO A SPLIT JET STREAM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WEAKLY CAPPED OR UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE.
THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP DUE TO A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WITH AT LEAST
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 30-40 POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ON THESE DAYS BUT
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS. CAPE VALUES ARE OVER 1000 J/KG AT TIMES
WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP...BUT WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE LOWER END
AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CAPE ARE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF TALL/SKINNY CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. HOWEVER...WITH
PWAT VALUES STILL AVERAGING +2SD...HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS DURING THIS PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST BEGINS A SLOW MOVEMENT EAST BUT IT
MAY BREAK DOWN TO OUR NORTH BEFORE IT HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY HOLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  60  81  63  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              85  56  82  62  82 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             80  58  79  59  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  81  61  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          81  58  81  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            82  61  83  63  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           84  58  81  62  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         83  57  82  61  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            84  56  81  62  81 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  57  83  60  80 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

15/79



000
FXUS64 KFWD 021742
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1242 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE ACROSS THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAF SITES.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...AFTERNOON FEW TO SCT VFR CU WILL
CONTINUE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10-13 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS OF UP TO 15-18 KNOTS. A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STREAM IN
FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNDOWN THIS EVENING. SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR WITH VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS...WINDS MAY INCREASE A TAD FOR THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE DFW TAF SITE WITH WIND SPEEDS CLOSER TO 15-18
KNOTS.

FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...AFTERNOON FEW TO SCT VFR CU ARE EXPECTED
WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10-13 KNOTS. DIURNAL CU
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND WILL RE-DEVELOP AROUND MID-
MORNING ON SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

15-BAIN

&&

.UPDATE...
THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT WERE MOVING ACROSS THE RED RIVER EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAVE SCATTERED OUT OR DISSIPATED. TEMPERATURES LATE THIS
MORNING ARE WARMING STEADILY UNDER ABUNDANT SUN AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

WE WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE MORNING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE NORTHERN ZONES AND BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES
IN MOST ZONES BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

IT IS GOING TO BE A GREAT WEEKEND TO ENJOY THE OUTDOORS BEFORE
THE RAIN RETURNS NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALREADY
STARTING TO MOVE OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THE 00Z
FORECAST MODEL RUNS FAILED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DENSE DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS CROSSING THE RED RIVER INTO NORTH TEXAS AS OF 3 AM. WILL
PREVAIL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A THINNING OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ON
SUNDAY...JUST ABOUT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S.

ON MONDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BE REPLACED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE-
RICH AIR INTO THE REGION AND DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO SET THE STAGE FOR RAIN CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARIZONA AND COLORADO...SPREADING LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. A FEW STRONG
OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
THREAT AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH +2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE NORTH- SOUTH
ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO INCREASES THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT
WE CONTINUE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A WET PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. OUR THINKING IS
THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUOUS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS LOW. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
IN A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT DUE TO A SPLIT JET STREAM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WEAKLY CAPPED OR UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE.
THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP DUE TO A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WITH AT LEAST
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 30-40 POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ON THESE DAYS BUT
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS. CAPE VALUES ARE OVER 1000 J/KG AT TIMES
WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP...BUT WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE LOWER END
AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CAPE ARE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF TALL/SKINNY CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. HOWEVER...WITH
PWAT VALUES STILL AVERAGING +2SD...HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS DURING THIS PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST BEGINS A SLOW MOVEMENT EAST BUT IT
MAY BREAK DOWN TO OUR NORTH BEFORE IT HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY HOLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  60  81  63  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              85  56  82  62  82 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             80  58  79  59  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  81  61  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          81  58  81  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            82  61  83  63  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           84  58  81  62  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         83  57  82  61  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            84  56  81  62  81 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  57  83  60  80 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

15/79




000
FXUS64 KMAF 021740
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with breezy southeast winds will continue for the
next 24 hours. Late tonight, gusts will diminish, but winds will
increase once again by late Sunday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another nice day expected today under the influence of weak upper
ridging aloft. Expect sunny skies and afternoon high temperatures
in the mid 80s most places. Southeast winds will be a bit breezy
this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in
response to a surface trough strengthening lee of the Rockies.
Upper ridging will shift east overnight tonight while a Pacific
upper trough slowly approaches the SW ConUS, resulting in SW flow
aloft by Sunday afternoon. The dryline looks to sharpen from the
western Permian Basin south to the Big Bend region on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time so will
continue mention of at least isolated thunderstorms possible
near/along the dryline.

The main focus for this forecast package is the Monday through
Tuesday timeframe with the potential of severe weather and flooding
affecting portions of the CWA. The Pacific ua trough will enter the
SW ConUS overnight Sunday then moving east through the Desert SW
through the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, moderate SE winds at
the surface will continue pumping low level moisture into the
region. Model guidance has been consistent in showing PWATS just
above 1" Monday increasing to near 1.25" Monday night. The dryline
will be a little farther west on Monday, sharpening up near SE NM
south just east of the Davis Mtn region. Models indicate a weak
upper disturbance moving overhead in SW flow aloft, and with
sufficient heating and ample moisture, dryline thunderstorms are
possible during the late afternoon/evening hours Monday.
Convective activity looks to increase and persist overnight,
particularly across the northern half of the CWA, as greatest
upper forcing arrives and nocturnal LLJ sustains LL moisture.
Storms could be strong to severe, producing large hail and
damaging winds. In addition, given the potential amount of
available moisture, heavy rain could definitely result in a flash
flooding threat particularly overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning. Will continue to mention flash flooding threat in the HWO
but may need to consider issuing a Flash Flood Watch soon. Could
see dryline thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon, given the
atmosphere can recover from Monday night...

Wednesday, model solutions indicate dryline thunderstorms once again
despite the exiting ua trough, somewhat depleted moisture and no
significant upper forcing depicted. We could end up getting an upper
weakness come across in SW flow aloft so kept at least slight
chances mentioned for now across eastern zones. The dryline looks to
meander back and forth across eastern half of the CWA through the
end of the week and maybe even into the weekend with the chance for
thunderstorms continuing through Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 021740
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with breezy southeast winds will continue for the
next 24 hours. Late tonight, gusts will diminish, but winds will
increase once again by late Sunday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another nice day expected today under the influence of weak upper
ridging aloft. Expect sunny skies and afternoon high temperatures
in the mid 80s most places. Southeast winds will be a bit breezy
this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in
response to a surface trough strengthening lee of the Rockies.
Upper ridging will shift east overnight tonight while a Pacific
upper trough slowly approaches the SW ConUS, resulting in SW flow
aloft by Sunday afternoon. The dryline looks to sharpen from the
western Permian Basin south to the Big Bend region on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time so will
continue mention of at least isolated thunderstorms possible
near/along the dryline.

The main focus for this forecast package is the Monday through
Tuesday timeframe with the potential of severe weather and flooding
affecting portions of the CWA. The Pacific ua trough will enter the
SW ConUS overnight Sunday then moving east through the Desert SW
through the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, moderate SE winds at
the surface will continue pumping low level moisture into the
region. Model guidance has been consistent in showing PWATS just
above 1" Monday increasing to near 1.25" Monday night. The dryline
will be a little farther west on Monday, sharpening up near SE NM
south just east of the Davis Mtn region. Models indicate a weak
upper disturbance moving overhead in SW flow aloft, and with
sufficient heating and ample moisture, dryline thunderstorms are
possible during the late afternoon/evening hours Monday.
Convective activity looks to increase and persist overnight,
particularly across the northern half of the CWA, as greatest
upper forcing arrives and nocturnal LLJ sustains LL moisture.
Storms could be strong to severe, producing large hail and
damaging winds. In addition, given the potential amount of
available moisture, heavy rain could definitely result in a flash
flooding threat particularly overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning. Will continue to mention flash flooding threat in the HWO
but may need to consider issuing a Flash Flood Watch soon. Could
see dryline thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon, given the
atmosphere can recover from Monday night...

Wednesday, model solutions indicate dryline thunderstorms once again
despite the exiting ua trough, somewhat depleted moisture and no
significant upper forcing depicted. We could end up getting an upper
weakness come across in SW flow aloft so kept at least slight
chances mentioned for now across eastern zones. The dryline looks to
meander back and forth across eastern half of the CWA through the
end of the week and maybe even into the weekend with the chance for
thunderstorms continuing through Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 021740
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with breezy southeast winds will continue for the
next 24 hours. Late tonight, gusts will diminish, but winds will
increase once again by late Sunday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another nice day expected today under the influence of weak upper
ridging aloft. Expect sunny skies and afternoon high temperatures
in the mid 80s most places. Southeast winds will be a bit breezy
this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in
response to a surface trough strengthening lee of the Rockies.
Upper ridging will shift east overnight tonight while a Pacific
upper trough slowly approaches the SW ConUS, resulting in SW flow
aloft by Sunday afternoon. The dryline looks to sharpen from the
western Permian Basin south to the Big Bend region on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time so will
continue mention of at least isolated thunderstorms possible
near/along the dryline.

The main focus for this forecast package is the Monday through
Tuesday timeframe with the potential of severe weather and flooding
affecting portions of the CWA. The Pacific ua trough will enter the
SW ConUS overnight Sunday then moving east through the Desert SW
through the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, moderate SE winds at
the surface will continue pumping low level moisture into the
region. Model guidance has been consistent in showing PWATS just
above 1" Monday increasing to near 1.25" Monday night. The dryline
will be a little farther west on Monday, sharpening up near SE NM
south just east of the Davis Mtn region. Models indicate a weak
upper disturbance moving overhead in SW flow aloft, and with
sufficient heating and ample moisture, dryline thunderstorms are
possible during the late afternoon/evening hours Monday.
Convective activity looks to increase and persist overnight,
particularly across the northern half of the CWA, as greatest
upper forcing arrives and nocturnal LLJ sustains LL moisture.
Storms could be strong to severe, producing large hail and
damaging winds. In addition, given the potential amount of
available moisture, heavy rain could definitely result in a flash
flooding threat particularly overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning. Will continue to mention flash flooding threat in the HWO
but may need to consider issuing a Flash Flood Watch soon. Could
see dryline thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon, given the
atmosphere can recover from Monday night...

Wednesday, model solutions indicate dryline thunderstorms once again
despite the exiting ua trough, somewhat depleted moisture and no
significant upper forcing depicted. We could end up getting an upper
weakness come across in SW flow aloft so kept at least slight
chances mentioned for now across eastern zones. The dryline looks to
meander back and forth across eastern half of the CWA through the
end of the week and maybe even into the weekend with the chance for
thunderstorms continuing through Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 021740
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with breezy southeast winds will continue for the
next 24 hours. Late tonight, gusts will diminish, but winds will
increase once again by late Sunday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another nice day expected today under the influence of weak upper
ridging aloft. Expect sunny skies and afternoon high temperatures
in the mid 80s most places. Southeast winds will be a bit breezy
this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in
response to a surface trough strengthening lee of the Rockies.
Upper ridging will shift east overnight tonight while a Pacific
upper trough slowly approaches the SW ConUS, resulting in SW flow
aloft by Sunday afternoon. The dryline looks to sharpen from the
western Permian Basin south to the Big Bend region on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time so will
continue mention of at least isolated thunderstorms possible
near/along the dryline.

The main focus for this forecast package is the Monday through
Tuesday timeframe with the potential of severe weather and flooding
affecting portions of the CWA. The Pacific ua trough will enter the
SW ConUS overnight Sunday then moving east through the Desert SW
through the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, moderate SE winds at
the surface will continue pumping low level moisture into the
region. Model guidance has been consistent in showing PWATS just
above 1" Monday increasing to near 1.25" Monday night. The dryline
will be a little farther west on Monday, sharpening up near SE NM
south just east of the Davis Mtn region. Models indicate a weak
upper disturbance moving overhead in SW flow aloft, and with
sufficient heating and ample moisture, dryline thunderstorms are
possible during the late afternoon/evening hours Monday.
Convective activity looks to increase and persist overnight,
particularly across the northern half of the CWA, as greatest
upper forcing arrives and nocturnal LLJ sustains LL moisture.
Storms could be strong to severe, producing large hail and
damaging winds. In addition, given the potential amount of
available moisture, heavy rain could definitely result in a flash
flooding threat particularly overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning. Will continue to mention flash flooding threat in the HWO
but may need to consider issuing a Flash Flood Watch soon. Could
see dryline thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon, given the
atmosphere can recover from Monday night...

Wednesday, model solutions indicate dryline thunderstorms once again
despite the exiting ua trough, somewhat depleted moisture and no
significant upper forcing depicted. We could end up getting an upper
weakness come across in SW flow aloft so kept at least slight
chances mentioned for now across eastern zones. The dryline looks to
meander back and forth across eastern half of the CWA through the
end of the week and maybe even into the weekend with the chance for
thunderstorms continuing through Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 021721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS STARTING TO INCREASE PARTICULARLY AT KLBB
AND KPVW /AOA 17-18 KTS/...WITH ALL THREE TAF SITES BECOMING
BREEZY LATER THIS AFTERNOON /18-20 KTS/. A NOTABLE DECLINE IN
WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL
STAY UP A BIT AT 10-12 KTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZIEST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING MORE SO BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF KLBB AND
KPVW SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY NEARING KLBB AND KPVW. CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE IS
NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO NOT INCLUDE A PRECIP
MENTION FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS AGAIN TODAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT AND KICKING OFF A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...HIGH-
BASED MOIST CONVECTION WILL FIRE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES COULD BE
GRAZED BY CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS POINTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST ARE AT GREATER
RISK. GIVEN THIS...AND THE DEEP AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE...WE HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST ZONES TODAY/TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THOUGH A BOUT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD WILL GRADUALLY
FADE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF MID/HIGH CLOUD TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY WHICH IN TURN WILL
GENERATE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OCCASIONALLY FILTERING THE SUN
TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD STILL PEAK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD TOO...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...
.WET FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...

THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BOTH BETWEEN DIFFERENT
MODELS AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...WHICH INCREASES OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL WET PATTERN TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD KICK OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS SRN CALI/NRN BAJA. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE WILL
INTERSECT THE DRYLINE CLOSE TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND SHOULD
HELP INITIATE SOME T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL BE
RATHER HIGH-BASED...AND A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO THEY SHOULD NOT
POSE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT MORE THAN STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. IT IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST THE ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE
SUNDAY EVENING...THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO KILL OFF
THE STORMS JUST BEFORE THEY REACH THE I-27/US 87 CORRIDOR...BUT
THERE/S CERTAINLY A LITTLE LEEWAY THERE.

EVEN AS THAT INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO
FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT
SW. HEIGHT FALLS AND BACKING WINDS WILL DRAW THE DRYLINE ALL THE
WAY WEST TO THE NM MOUNTAINS...WHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN ANCHORED ALL
DAY MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAK CAPPING SHOULD
GIVE WAY RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY...PERHAPS EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN NM AND WEST TEXAS. IT APPEARS THAT WESTERN AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK WILL BE FAVORED FOR INITIAL ACTIVITY DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH. IT ALSO APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND WE THINK THIS PERIOD
MAY BRING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITY AS WELL. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PINPOINT WHERE
A MORE BROAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP...BUT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE MAY HAVE HIGHER ODDS THAN AREAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL THEN PASS OVER AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AGAIN...WE CONTINUE TO HAVE QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF TUESDAY/S WEATHER DUE TO WHAT
ACTUALLY TRANSPIRES MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE COOLER TEMPS AND CLOUDY
SKIES...IT MAY YET BE POSSIBLE TO REALIZE SOME SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY IN
ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. WE WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH-DRYLINE TO MAKE A MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE LINE AS WELL AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CI. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL THROUGH THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...MANY LOCATIONS MAY
RECEIVE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL WITH A STRONG
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

SOME SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY. BUT LESS CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO MORE HEATING...AND
WITH THE DRYLINE STILL IN THE AREA...LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT...SOME DIURNAL T-STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN FACT...A STRONGER QPF SIGNAL HAS EMERGED FOR THURSDAY
AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK TO THE WEST AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AND THE FORECAST PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF DIURNAL T-STORM ACTIVITY...FOCUSED ON THE
DRYLINE...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  86  53  74 /  10  30  20  50
TULIA         53  84  57  76 /  10  10  30  40
PLAINVIEW     54  83  56  75 /  10  10  30  40
LEVELLAND     54  86  55  76 /  10  20  30  50
LUBBOCK       56  86  59  76 /  10  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   54  87  55  77 /   0  20  20  50
BROWNFIELD    55  86  58  77 /   0  20  20  40
CHILDRESS     57  86  61  79 /  10   0  10  20
SPUR          56  84  59  77 /   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     58  84  60  78 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 021721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS STARTING TO INCREASE PARTICULARLY AT KLBB
AND KPVW /AOA 17-18 KTS/...WITH ALL THREE TAF SITES BECOMING
BREEZY LATER THIS AFTERNOON /18-20 KTS/. A NOTABLE DECLINE IN
WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL
STAY UP A BIT AT 10-12 KTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZIEST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING MORE SO BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF KLBB AND
KPVW SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY NEARING KLBB AND KPVW. CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE IS
NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO NOT INCLUDE A PRECIP
MENTION FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS AGAIN TODAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT AND KICKING OFF A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...HIGH-
BASED MOIST CONVECTION WILL FIRE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES COULD BE
GRAZED BY CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS POINTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST ARE AT GREATER
RISK. GIVEN THIS...AND THE DEEP AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE...WE HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST ZONES TODAY/TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THOUGH A BOUT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD WILL GRADUALLY
FADE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF MID/HIGH CLOUD TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY WHICH IN TURN WILL
GENERATE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OCCASIONALLY FILTERING THE SUN
TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD STILL PEAK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD TOO...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...
.WET FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...

THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BOTH BETWEEN DIFFERENT
MODELS AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...WHICH INCREASES OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL WET PATTERN TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD KICK OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS SRN CALI/NRN BAJA. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE WILL
INTERSECT THE DRYLINE CLOSE TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND SHOULD
HELP INITIATE SOME T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL BE
RATHER HIGH-BASED...AND A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO THEY SHOULD NOT
POSE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT MORE THAN STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. IT IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST THE ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE
SUNDAY EVENING...THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO KILL OFF
THE STORMS JUST BEFORE THEY REACH THE I-27/US 87 CORRIDOR...BUT
THERE/S CERTAINLY A LITTLE LEEWAY THERE.

EVEN AS THAT INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO
FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT
SW. HEIGHT FALLS AND BACKING WINDS WILL DRAW THE DRYLINE ALL THE
WAY WEST TO THE NM MOUNTAINS...WHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN ANCHORED ALL
DAY MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAK CAPPING SHOULD
GIVE WAY RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY...PERHAPS EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN NM AND WEST TEXAS. IT APPEARS THAT WESTERN AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK WILL BE FAVORED FOR INITIAL ACTIVITY DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH. IT ALSO APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND WE THINK THIS PERIOD
MAY BRING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITY AS WELL. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PINPOINT WHERE
A MORE BROAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP...BUT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE MAY HAVE HIGHER ODDS THAN AREAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL THEN PASS OVER AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AGAIN...WE CONTINUE TO HAVE QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF TUESDAY/S WEATHER DUE TO WHAT
ACTUALLY TRANSPIRES MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE COOLER TEMPS AND CLOUDY
SKIES...IT MAY YET BE POSSIBLE TO REALIZE SOME SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY IN
ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. WE WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH-DRYLINE TO MAKE A MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE LINE AS WELL AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CI. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL THROUGH THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...MANY LOCATIONS MAY
RECEIVE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL WITH A STRONG
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

SOME SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY. BUT LESS CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO MORE HEATING...AND
WITH THE DRYLINE STILL IN THE AREA...LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT...SOME DIURNAL T-STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN FACT...A STRONGER QPF SIGNAL HAS EMERGED FOR THURSDAY
AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK TO THE WEST AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AND THE FORECAST PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF DIURNAL T-STORM ACTIVITY...FOCUSED ON THE
DRYLINE...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  86  53  74 /  10  30  20  50
TULIA         53  84  57  76 /  10  10  30  40
PLAINVIEW     54  83  56  75 /  10  10  30  40
LEVELLAND     54  86  55  76 /  10  20  30  50
LUBBOCK       56  86  59  76 /  10  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   54  87  55  77 /   0  20  20  50
BROWNFIELD    55  86  58  77 /   0  20  20  40
CHILDRESS     57  86  61  79 /  10   0  10  20
SPUR          56  84  59  77 /   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     58  84  60  78 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29



000
FXUS64 KLUB 021721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS STARTING TO INCREASE PARTICULARLY AT KLBB
AND KPVW /AOA 17-18 KTS/...WITH ALL THREE TAF SITES BECOMING
BREEZY LATER THIS AFTERNOON /18-20 KTS/. A NOTABLE DECLINE IN
WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL
STAY UP A BIT AT 10-12 KTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZIEST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING MORE SO BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF KLBB AND
KPVW SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY NEARING KLBB AND KPVW. CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE IS
NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME...SO WILL OPT TO NOT INCLUDE A PRECIP
MENTION FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS AGAIN TODAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT AND KICKING OFF A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...HIGH-
BASED MOIST CONVECTION WILL FIRE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES COULD BE
GRAZED BY CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS POINTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST ARE AT GREATER
RISK. GIVEN THIS...AND THE DEEP AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE...WE HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST ZONES TODAY/TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THOUGH A BOUT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD WILL GRADUALLY
FADE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF MID/HIGH CLOUD TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY WHICH IN TURN WILL
GENERATE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OCCASIONALLY FILTERING THE SUN
TODAY...HIGHS SHOULD STILL PEAK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD TOO...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...
.WET FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...

THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BOTH BETWEEN DIFFERENT
MODELS AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...WHICH INCREASES OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL WET PATTERN TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD KICK OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS SRN CALI/NRN BAJA. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE WILL
INTERSECT THE DRYLINE CLOSE TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND SHOULD
HELP INITIATE SOME T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL BE
RATHER HIGH-BASED...AND A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO THEY SHOULD NOT
POSE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT MORE THAN STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. IT IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST THE ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE
SUNDAY EVENING...THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO KILL OFF
THE STORMS JUST BEFORE THEY REACH THE I-27/US 87 CORRIDOR...BUT
THERE/S CERTAINLY A LITTLE LEEWAY THERE.

EVEN AS THAT INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO
FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT
SW. HEIGHT FALLS AND BACKING WINDS WILL DRAW THE DRYLINE ALL THE
WAY WEST TO THE NM MOUNTAINS...WHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN ANCHORED ALL
DAY MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAK CAPPING SHOULD
GIVE WAY RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY...PERHAPS EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN NM AND WEST TEXAS. IT APPEARS THAT WESTERN AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK WILL BE FAVORED FOR INITIAL ACTIVITY DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH. IT ALSO APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND WE THINK THIS PERIOD
MAY BRING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITY AS WELL. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PINPOINT WHERE
A MORE BROAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP...BUT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE MAY HAVE HIGHER ODDS THAN AREAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL THEN PASS OVER AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AGAIN...WE CONTINUE TO HAVE QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF TUESDAY/S WEATHER DUE TO WHAT
ACTUALLY TRANSPIRES MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE COOLER TEMPS AND CLOUDY
SKIES...IT MAY YET BE POSSIBLE TO REALIZE SOME SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY IN
ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. WE WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH-DRYLINE TO MAKE A MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE LINE AS WELL AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CI. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL THROUGH THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...MANY LOCATIONS MAY
RECEIVE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL WITH A STRONG
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

SOME SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY. BUT LESS CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO MORE HEATING...AND
WITH THE DRYLINE STILL IN THE AREA...LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT...SOME DIURNAL T-STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN FACT...A STRONGER QPF SIGNAL HAS EMERGED FOR THURSDAY
AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK TO THE WEST AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AND THE FORECAST PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF DIURNAL T-STORM ACTIVITY...FOCUSED ON THE
DRYLINE...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  86  53  74 /  10  30  20  50
TULIA         53  84  57  76 /  10  10  30  40
PLAINVIEW     54  83  56  75 /  10  10  30  40
LEVELLAND     54  86  55  76 /  10  20  30  50
LUBBOCK       56  86  59  76 /  10  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   54  87  55  77 /   0  20  20  50
BROWNFIELD    55  86  58  77 /   0  20  20  40
CHILDRESS     57  86  61  79 /  10   0  10  20
SPUR          56  84  59  77 /   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     58  84  60  78 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KAMA 021707
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY TO
THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES. OPTED TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING IN THE
TAF FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE LOW BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...AND THEN SOUTHWEST AFTER 10Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN LATER THIS MORNING. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AND THE UPPER
FLOW WILL SEND THEM THIS WAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE DHT
TAF SITE THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...THEN THEY WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

BROAD BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO RESULTED IN CONVECTION THAT HAS DRIFTED
SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS LAST EVENING. WITH
STRONGEST MEAN FLOW FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...BOTH ORGANIZATION AND
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND OFF THE RATON MESA. FURTHERMORE...FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS AS
EVIDENT BY REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS HAS LIMITED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WITH THIS CONVECTION. EARLY TONIGHT...ONLY A FEW LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES. ONLY A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OCCURRED AT CLAYTON
ASOS EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH NO OTHER OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
TOMORROW. THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE PROBABLY AT LEAST
AUGMENTED SOME BY LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM DIURNAL HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION. THESE SMALL WAVES SHOULD STILL BE COINCIDENT WITH SOME
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING THAT WOULD IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FORCING...CONTINUED
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...AND NOT MUCH OF AN UPWARD TREND IN MOISTURE IN THE
SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE
LIMITED.

WESTERLY MOMENTUM ALOFT FROM STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET HAS BEEN
EVIDENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL REACH BAJA BY
SUNDAY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MEANWHILE A MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW EVOLVES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RESPONSE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY ROBUST
MOISTURE ARRIVAL BY LATE MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO EVOLVE IN
SUCH A WAY THAT WOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST MERIDIONAL FLOW AND
PROBABLY MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT THAN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GENERATED IN
THE MODELS SEEMS TO CONTAMINATE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE MONDAY
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOWING SATURATED ADIABATIC PROFILES AND
MINIMAL INSTABILITY...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PERIODS/POCKETS OF
HIGHER CAPE AND CORRESPONDING MORE ROBUST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION. FOR THIS REASON FEEL COMFORTABLE CONTINUING TO MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO AS IT
MENTIONS BOTH THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH MORE OF A
FOCUS ON HEAVY RAIN IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. KEPT STORM TOTAL QPF
AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES BUT WITH PWAT VALUES PEAKING ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE EARLY TUESDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. LATER
FORECASTS MAY ADJUST UPWARD DEPENDING ON QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN
AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TO LIMIT QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN.

BEYOND TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS
EAST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
AT THE SAME TIME...PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AND BROADEN AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION SCENARIO WITH A DRYLINE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MIX EASTWARD LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER WEST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE TOWARD
SATURDAY AS MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021707
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY TO
THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES. OPTED TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING IN THE
TAF FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE LOW BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...AND THEN SOUTHWEST AFTER 10Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN LATER THIS MORNING. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AND THE UPPER
FLOW WILL SEND THEM THIS WAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE DHT
TAF SITE THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...THEN THEY WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

BROAD BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO RESULTED IN CONVECTION THAT HAS DRIFTED
SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS LAST EVENING. WITH
STRONGEST MEAN FLOW FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...BOTH ORGANIZATION AND
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND OFF THE RATON MESA. FURTHERMORE...FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS AS
EVIDENT BY REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS HAS LIMITED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WITH THIS CONVECTION. EARLY TONIGHT...ONLY A FEW LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES. ONLY A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OCCURRED AT CLAYTON
ASOS EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH NO OTHER OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
TOMORROW. THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE PROBABLY AT LEAST
AUGMENTED SOME BY LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM DIURNAL HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION. THESE SMALL WAVES SHOULD STILL BE COINCIDENT WITH SOME
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING THAT WOULD IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FORCING...CONTINUED
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...AND NOT MUCH OF AN UPWARD TREND IN MOISTURE IN THE
SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE
LIMITED.

WESTERLY MOMENTUM ALOFT FROM STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET HAS BEEN
EVIDENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL REACH BAJA BY
SUNDAY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MEANWHILE A MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW EVOLVES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RESPONSE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY ROBUST
MOISTURE ARRIVAL BY LATE MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO EVOLVE IN
SUCH A WAY THAT WOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST MERIDIONAL FLOW AND
PROBABLY MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT THAN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GENERATED IN
THE MODELS SEEMS TO CONTAMINATE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE MONDAY
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOWING SATURATED ADIABATIC PROFILES AND
MINIMAL INSTABILITY...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PERIODS/POCKETS OF
HIGHER CAPE AND CORRESPONDING MORE ROBUST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION. FOR THIS REASON FEEL COMFORTABLE CONTINUING TO MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO AS IT
MENTIONS BOTH THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH MORE OF A
FOCUS ON HEAVY RAIN IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. KEPT STORM TOTAL QPF
AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES BUT WITH PWAT VALUES PEAKING ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE EARLY TUESDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. LATER
FORECASTS MAY ADJUST UPWARD DEPENDING ON QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN
AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TO LIMIT QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN.

BEYOND TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS
EAST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
AT THE SAME TIME...PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AND BROADEN AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION SCENARIO WITH A DRYLINE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MIX EASTWARD LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER WEST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE TOWARD
SATURDAY AS MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021707
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY TO
THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES. OPTED TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING IN THE
TAF FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE LOW BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...AND THEN SOUTHWEST AFTER 10Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN LATER THIS MORNING. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AND THE UPPER
FLOW WILL SEND THEM THIS WAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE DHT
TAF SITE THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...THEN THEY WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

BROAD BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO RESULTED IN CONVECTION THAT HAS DRIFTED
SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS LAST EVENING. WITH
STRONGEST MEAN FLOW FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...BOTH ORGANIZATION AND
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND OFF THE RATON MESA. FURTHERMORE...FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS AS
EVIDENT BY REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS HAS LIMITED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WITH THIS CONVECTION. EARLY TONIGHT...ONLY A FEW LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES. ONLY A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OCCURRED AT CLAYTON
ASOS EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH NO OTHER OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
TOMORROW. THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE PROBABLY AT LEAST
AUGMENTED SOME BY LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM DIURNAL HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION. THESE SMALL WAVES SHOULD STILL BE COINCIDENT WITH SOME
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING THAT WOULD IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FORCING...CONTINUED
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...AND NOT MUCH OF AN UPWARD TREND IN MOISTURE IN THE
SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE
LIMITED.

WESTERLY MOMENTUM ALOFT FROM STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET HAS BEEN
EVIDENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL REACH BAJA BY
SUNDAY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MEANWHILE A MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW EVOLVES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RESPONSE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY ROBUST
MOISTURE ARRIVAL BY LATE MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO EVOLVE IN
SUCH A WAY THAT WOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST MERIDIONAL FLOW AND
PROBABLY MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT THAN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GENERATED IN
THE MODELS SEEMS TO CONTAMINATE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE MONDAY
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOWING SATURATED ADIABATIC PROFILES AND
MINIMAL INSTABILITY...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PERIODS/POCKETS OF
HIGHER CAPE AND CORRESPONDING MORE ROBUST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION. FOR THIS REASON FEEL COMFORTABLE CONTINUING TO MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO AS IT
MENTIONS BOTH THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH MORE OF A
FOCUS ON HEAVY RAIN IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. KEPT STORM TOTAL QPF
AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES BUT WITH PWAT VALUES PEAKING ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE EARLY TUESDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. LATER
FORECASTS MAY ADJUST UPWARD DEPENDING ON QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN
AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TO LIMIT QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN.

BEYOND TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS
EAST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
AT THE SAME TIME...PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AND BROADEN AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION SCENARIO WITH A DRYLINE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MIX EASTWARD LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER WEST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE TOWARD
SATURDAY AS MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021707
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY TO
THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES. OPTED TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING IN THE
TAF FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE LOW BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...AND THEN SOUTHWEST AFTER 10Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN LATER THIS MORNING. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AND THE UPPER
FLOW WILL SEND THEM THIS WAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE DHT
TAF SITE THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...THEN THEY WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

BROAD BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO RESULTED IN CONVECTION THAT HAS DRIFTED
SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS LAST EVENING. WITH
STRONGEST MEAN FLOW FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...BOTH ORGANIZATION AND
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND OFF THE RATON MESA. FURTHERMORE...FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS AS
EVIDENT BY REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS HAS LIMITED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WITH THIS CONVECTION. EARLY TONIGHT...ONLY A FEW LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES. ONLY A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OCCURRED AT CLAYTON
ASOS EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH NO OTHER OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
TOMORROW. THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE PROBABLY AT LEAST
AUGMENTED SOME BY LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM DIURNAL HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION. THESE SMALL WAVES SHOULD STILL BE COINCIDENT WITH SOME
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING THAT WOULD IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FORCING...CONTINUED
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...AND NOT MUCH OF AN UPWARD TREND IN MOISTURE IN THE
SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE
LIMITED.

WESTERLY MOMENTUM ALOFT FROM STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET HAS BEEN
EVIDENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL REACH BAJA BY
SUNDAY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MEANWHILE A MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW EVOLVES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RESPONSE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY ROBUST
MOISTURE ARRIVAL BY LATE MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO EVOLVE IN
SUCH A WAY THAT WOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST MERIDIONAL FLOW AND
PROBABLY MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT THAN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GENERATED IN
THE MODELS SEEMS TO CONTAMINATE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE MONDAY
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOWING SATURATED ADIABATIC PROFILES AND
MINIMAL INSTABILITY...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PERIODS/POCKETS OF
HIGHER CAPE AND CORRESPONDING MORE ROBUST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION. FOR THIS REASON FEEL COMFORTABLE CONTINUING TO MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO AS IT
MENTIONS BOTH THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH MORE OF A
FOCUS ON HEAVY RAIN IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. KEPT STORM TOTAL QPF
AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES BUT WITH PWAT VALUES PEAKING ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE EARLY TUESDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. LATER
FORECASTS MAY ADJUST UPWARD DEPENDING ON QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN
AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TO LIMIT QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN.

BEYOND TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS
EAST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
AT THE SAME TIME...PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AND BROADEN AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION SCENARIO WITH A DRYLINE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MIX EASTWARD LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER WEST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE TOWARD
SATURDAY AS MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021707
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY TO
THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES. OPTED TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING IN THE
TAF FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE LOW BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...AND THEN SOUTHWEST AFTER 10Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN LATER THIS MORNING. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AND THE UPPER
FLOW WILL SEND THEM THIS WAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE DHT
TAF SITE THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...THEN THEY WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

BROAD BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO RESULTED IN CONVECTION THAT HAS DRIFTED
SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS LAST EVENING. WITH
STRONGEST MEAN FLOW FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...BOTH ORGANIZATION AND
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND OFF THE RATON MESA. FURTHERMORE...FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS AS
EVIDENT BY REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS HAS LIMITED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WITH THIS CONVECTION. EARLY TONIGHT...ONLY A FEW LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES. ONLY A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OCCURRED AT CLAYTON
ASOS EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH NO OTHER OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
TOMORROW. THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE PROBABLY AT LEAST
AUGMENTED SOME BY LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM DIURNAL HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION. THESE SMALL WAVES SHOULD STILL BE COINCIDENT WITH SOME
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING THAT WOULD IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FORCING...CONTINUED
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...AND NOT MUCH OF AN UPWARD TREND IN MOISTURE IN THE
SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE
LIMITED.

WESTERLY MOMENTUM ALOFT FROM STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET HAS BEEN
EVIDENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL REACH BAJA BY
SUNDAY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MEANWHILE A MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW EVOLVES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RESPONSE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY ROBUST
MOISTURE ARRIVAL BY LATE MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO EVOLVE IN
SUCH A WAY THAT WOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST MERIDIONAL FLOW AND
PROBABLY MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT THAN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GENERATED IN
THE MODELS SEEMS TO CONTAMINATE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE MONDAY
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOWING SATURATED ADIABATIC PROFILES AND
MINIMAL INSTABILITY...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PERIODS/POCKETS OF
HIGHER CAPE AND CORRESPONDING MORE ROBUST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION. FOR THIS REASON FEEL COMFORTABLE CONTINUING TO MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO AS IT
MENTIONS BOTH THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH MORE OF A
FOCUS ON HEAVY RAIN IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. KEPT STORM TOTAL QPF
AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES BUT WITH PWAT VALUES PEAKING ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE EARLY TUESDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. LATER
FORECASTS MAY ADJUST UPWARD DEPENDING ON QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN
AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TO LIMIT QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN.

BEYOND TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS
EAST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
AT THE SAME TIME...PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AND BROADEN AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION SCENARIO WITH A DRYLINE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MIX EASTWARD LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER WEST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE TOWARD
SATURDAY AS MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021707
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY TO
THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES. OPTED TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING IN THE
TAF FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE LOW BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...AND THEN SOUTHWEST AFTER 10Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN LATER THIS MORNING. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AND THE UPPER
FLOW WILL SEND THEM THIS WAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE DHT
TAF SITE THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...THEN THEY WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

BROAD BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO RESULTED IN CONVECTION THAT HAS DRIFTED
SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS LAST EVENING. WITH
STRONGEST MEAN FLOW FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...BOTH ORGANIZATION AND
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND OFF THE RATON MESA. FURTHERMORE...FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS AS
EVIDENT BY REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS HAS LIMITED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WITH THIS CONVECTION. EARLY TONIGHT...ONLY A FEW LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES. ONLY A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OCCURRED AT CLAYTON
ASOS EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH NO OTHER OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
TOMORROW. THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE PROBABLY AT LEAST
AUGMENTED SOME BY LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM DIURNAL HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION. THESE SMALL WAVES SHOULD STILL BE COINCIDENT WITH SOME
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING THAT WOULD IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FORCING...CONTINUED
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...AND NOT MUCH OF AN UPWARD TREND IN MOISTURE IN THE
SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE
LIMITED.

WESTERLY MOMENTUM ALOFT FROM STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET HAS BEEN
EVIDENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL REACH BAJA BY
SUNDAY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MEANWHILE A MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW EVOLVES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RESPONSE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY ROBUST
MOISTURE ARRIVAL BY LATE MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO EVOLVE IN
SUCH A WAY THAT WOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST MERIDIONAL FLOW AND
PROBABLY MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT THAN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GENERATED IN
THE MODELS SEEMS TO CONTAMINATE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE MONDAY
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOWING SATURATED ADIABATIC PROFILES AND
MINIMAL INSTABILITY...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PERIODS/POCKETS OF
HIGHER CAPE AND CORRESPONDING MORE ROBUST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION. FOR THIS REASON FEEL COMFORTABLE CONTINUING TO MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO AS IT
MENTIONS BOTH THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH MORE OF A
FOCUS ON HEAVY RAIN IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. KEPT STORM TOTAL QPF
AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES BUT WITH PWAT VALUES PEAKING ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE EARLY TUESDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. LATER
FORECASTS MAY ADJUST UPWARD DEPENDING ON QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN
AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TO LIMIT QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN.

BEYOND TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS
EAST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
AT THE SAME TIME...PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AND BROADEN AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION SCENARIO WITH A DRYLINE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MIX EASTWARD LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER WEST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE TOWARD
SATURDAY AS MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021707
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY TO
THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES. OPTED TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING IN THE
TAF FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE LOW BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...AND THEN SOUTHWEST AFTER 10Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN LATER THIS MORNING. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AND THE UPPER
FLOW WILL SEND THEM THIS WAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE DHT
TAF SITE THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...THEN THEY WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

BROAD BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO RESULTED IN CONVECTION THAT HAS DRIFTED
SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS LAST EVENING. WITH
STRONGEST MEAN FLOW FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...BOTH ORGANIZATION AND
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND OFF THE RATON MESA. FURTHERMORE...FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS AS
EVIDENT BY REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS HAS LIMITED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WITH THIS CONVECTION. EARLY TONIGHT...ONLY A FEW LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES. ONLY A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OCCURRED AT CLAYTON
ASOS EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH NO OTHER OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
TOMORROW. THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE PROBABLY AT LEAST
AUGMENTED SOME BY LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM DIURNAL HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION. THESE SMALL WAVES SHOULD STILL BE COINCIDENT WITH SOME
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING THAT WOULD IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FORCING...CONTINUED
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...AND NOT MUCH OF AN UPWARD TREND IN MOISTURE IN THE
SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE
LIMITED.

WESTERLY MOMENTUM ALOFT FROM STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET HAS BEEN
EVIDENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL REACH BAJA BY
SUNDAY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MEANWHILE A MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW EVOLVES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RESPONSE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY ROBUST
MOISTURE ARRIVAL BY LATE MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO EVOLVE IN
SUCH A WAY THAT WOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST MERIDIONAL FLOW AND
PROBABLY MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT THAN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GENERATED IN
THE MODELS SEEMS TO CONTAMINATE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE MONDAY
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOWING SATURATED ADIABATIC PROFILES AND
MINIMAL INSTABILITY...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PERIODS/POCKETS OF
HIGHER CAPE AND CORRESPONDING MORE ROBUST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION. FOR THIS REASON FEEL COMFORTABLE CONTINUING TO MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO AS IT
MENTIONS BOTH THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH MORE OF A
FOCUS ON HEAVY RAIN IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. KEPT STORM TOTAL QPF
AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES BUT WITH PWAT VALUES PEAKING ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE EARLY TUESDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. LATER
FORECASTS MAY ADJUST UPWARD DEPENDING ON QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN
AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TO LIMIT QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN.

BEYOND TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS
EAST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
AT THE SAME TIME...PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AND BROADEN AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION SCENARIO WITH A DRYLINE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MIX EASTWARD LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER WEST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE TOWARD
SATURDAY AS MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 021707
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY TO
THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF SITES. OPTED TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING IN THE
TAF FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE LOW BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...AND THEN SOUTHWEST AFTER 10Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN LATER THIS MORNING. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AND THE UPPER
FLOW WILL SEND THEM THIS WAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE DHT
TAF SITE THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...THEN THEY WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

BROAD BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO RESULTED IN CONVECTION THAT HAS DRIFTED
SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS LAST EVENING. WITH
STRONGEST MEAN FLOW FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...BOTH ORGANIZATION AND
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND OFF THE RATON MESA. FURTHERMORE...FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS AS
EVIDENT BY REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS HAS LIMITED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WITH THIS CONVECTION. EARLY TONIGHT...ONLY A FEW LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES. ONLY A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OCCURRED AT CLAYTON
ASOS EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH NO OTHER OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
TOMORROW. THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE PROBABLY AT LEAST
AUGMENTED SOME BY LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM DIURNAL HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION. THESE SMALL WAVES SHOULD STILL BE COINCIDENT WITH SOME
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING THAT WOULD IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FORCING...CONTINUED
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...AND NOT MUCH OF AN UPWARD TREND IN MOISTURE IN THE
SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE
LIMITED.

WESTERLY MOMENTUM ALOFT FROM STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET HAS BEEN
EVIDENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL REACH BAJA BY
SUNDAY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MEANWHILE A MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW EVOLVES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RESPONSE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY ROBUST
MOISTURE ARRIVAL BY LATE MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO EVOLVE IN
SUCH A WAY THAT WOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST MERIDIONAL FLOW AND
PROBABLY MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT THAN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GENERATED IN
THE MODELS SEEMS TO CONTAMINATE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE MONDAY
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOWING SATURATED ADIABATIC PROFILES AND
MINIMAL INSTABILITY...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PERIODS/POCKETS OF
HIGHER CAPE AND CORRESPONDING MORE ROBUST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION. FOR THIS REASON FEEL COMFORTABLE CONTINUING TO MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO AS IT
MENTIONS BOTH THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH MORE OF A
FOCUS ON HEAVY RAIN IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. KEPT STORM TOTAL QPF
AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES BUT WITH PWAT VALUES PEAKING ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE EARLY TUESDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. LATER
FORECASTS MAY ADJUST UPWARD DEPENDING ON QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN
AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TO LIMIT QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN.

BEYOND TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS
EAST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
AT THE SAME TIME...PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AND BROADEN AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION SCENARIO WITH A DRYLINE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MIX EASTWARD LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER WEST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE TOWARD
SATURDAY AS MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/03






000
FXUS64 KFWD 021611
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1111 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT WERE MOVING ACROSS THE RED RIVER EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAVE SCATTERED OUT OR DISSIPATED. TEMPERATURES LATE THIS
MORNING ARE WARMING STEADILY UNDER ABUNDANT SUN AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

WE WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE MORNING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE NORTHERN ZONES AND BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES
IN MOST ZONES BASED ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 639 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/
/12Z TAFS/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE...WACO WILL
EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH 15Z BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. OTHERWISE ...SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z. A RELATIVELY
LIGHT S/SE SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT LEADING TO
SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND GUSTIER CONDITIONS AFT 18Z SUNDAY.


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

IT IS GOING TO BE A GREAT WEEKEND TO ENJOY THE OUTDOORS BEFORE
THE RAIN RETURNS NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALREADY
STARTING TO MOVE OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THE 00Z
FORECAST MODEL RUNS FAILED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DENSE DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS CROSSING THE RED RIVER INTO NORTH TEXAS AS OF 3 AM. WILL
PREVAIL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A THINNING OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ON
SUNDAY...JUST ABOUT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S.

ON MONDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BE REPLACED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE-
RICH AIR INTO THE REGION AND DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO SET THE STAGE FOR RAIN CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARIZONA AND COLORADO...SPREADING LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. A FEW STRONG
OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
THREAT AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH +2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE NORTH- SOUTH
ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO INCREASES THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT
WE CONTINUE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A WET PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. OUR THINKING IS
THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUOUS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS LOW. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
IN A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT DUE TO A SPLIT JET STREAM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WEAKLY CAPPED OR UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE.
THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP DUE TO A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WITH AT LEAST
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 30-40 POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ON THESE DAYS BUT
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS. CAPE VALUES ARE OVER 1000 J/KG AT TIMES
WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP...BUT WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE LOWER END
AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CAPE ARE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF TALL/SKINNY CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. HOWEVER...WITH
PWAT VALUES STILL AVERAGING +2SD...HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS DURING THIS PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST BEGINS A SLOW MOVEMENT EAST BUT IT
MAY BREAK DOWN TO OUR NORTH BEFORE IT HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY HOLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

JLDUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  60  81  63  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              85  56  82  62  82 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             80  58  79  59  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            81  59  81  61  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          81  58  81  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            82  61  83  63  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           84  58  81  62  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         83  57  82  61  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            84  56  81  62  81 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     83  57  83  60  80 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

15/79




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021604
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1104 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS...NO CHANGE IN REASONING FROM THE
PREVIOUS TAFS FOR TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS WILL KEEP
SUBSIDENCE OVER US WITH THE DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING NOW
WITH BASES AROUND 3500 FEET. WINDS STAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
10-12 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SFC WILL DROP BELOW 6 KNOTS WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET. INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS VISIBILITIES RESTRICTIONS
CLOSER TO SUNRISE AROUND 4-5 MILES. BY MID MORNING THOSE WINDS
WILL MIX DOWN ALONG WITH GRADIENT WINDS AS LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO S/W TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
19-22 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE RETURN AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
BKN CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION SETS
UP ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT
AROUND 3K FEET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRATUS LAYER DEVELOP AT
AROUND THE SAME HEIGHT RESULTING IN SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND OR AFTER
09Z SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES
REMAIN LOW WITH THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRIFT GRADUALLY
EASTWARD THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED
TODAY AND INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY USHERING IN A STEADY DOSE OF
GULF MOISTURE.

TODAY...ANOTHER OVERALL NICE DAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
RATHER WEAK. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THE SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
NOTICEABLE. DEW POINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO INCH
UPWARD BUT WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE DAYTIME MIXING
WILL MAINTAIN COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS FOR ONE LAST DAY. LITTLE CHANGE
OF THE AIRMASS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY TO RESULT IN
VERY SIMILAR MAXIMUMS AS FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD IS 2 TO 3
DEGREES SO THE RECENT BLEND SCHEME OF THE LAST FEW DAYS REMAINS
FORECASTERS CHOICE.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A VEERING OF
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
925MB WINDS INCREASE WITH DEW POINT AND TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.
THE BELOW NORMAL NIGHTS WILL BE THE THING OF THE PAST WITH GUIDANCE
PUSHING MINIMUMS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP EXPECTING MORE STRATUS THEN DENSE FOG WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS A BIT TO STRONG BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS BRIEFLY
DROPPING BELOW ONE MILE WHERE WINDS DROP BELOW 5 MPH.

SUNDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AND SKIES WILL SEE
MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN AS THE BIG THREE MODELS GFS/NAM/EC INDICATE
MEAN RH AOB 5000 FEET AROUND 85 PERCENT. THEY EVEN THROW IN SOME
LIGHT QPF AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER WITH ALL THREE INDICATING THE
LOW END POPS CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER. DID NOT MENTION
THUNDER WITH LIMITED FORCING  FROM THE SEA BREEZE AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO LIMITED BY MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...H5 RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS SHIFTS MIDLEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY...WHICH
PULLS PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO BRING DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING AND HOLDING IT IN THE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTINUING IN THE REGION...GOOD UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX IN THE REGION AND NUMEROUS SMALL VORTS SWEEPING THROUGH
DAILY...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FOR EACH DAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT ON ANY DAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WITH THE INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND INCREASES
IN THICKNESSES...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND THE
APPROACH OF MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY AND MODERATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO KEEP SEAS SLIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ONLY INCREASE AROUND ONE FOOT ON SUNDAY. OVERALL,
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FETCH SLOWLY INCREASES EACH
DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...REACHING AROUND 15 KNOTS
BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN AROUND 3 FEET...INCREASING TO NEAR 6
FEET BY WEDNESDAY. NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55



000
FXUS64 KBRO 021604
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1104 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS...NO CHANGE IN REASONING FROM THE
PREVIOUS TAFS FOR TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS WILL KEEP
SUBSIDENCE OVER US WITH THE DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING NOW
WITH BASES AROUND 3500 FEET. WINDS STAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
10-12 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SFC WILL DROP BELOW 6 KNOTS WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET. INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS VISIBILITIES RESTRICTIONS
CLOSER TO SUNRISE AROUND 4-5 MILES. BY MID MORNING THOSE WINDS
WILL MIX DOWN ALONG WITH GRADIENT WINDS AS LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO S/W TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
19-22 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE RETURN AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
BKN CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION SETS
UP ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT
AROUND 3K FEET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRATUS LAYER DEVELOP AT
AROUND THE SAME HEIGHT RESULTING IN SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND OR AFTER
09Z SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES
REMAIN LOW WITH THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRIFT GRADUALLY
EASTWARD THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED
TODAY AND INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY USHERING IN A STEADY DOSE OF
GULF MOISTURE.

TODAY...ANOTHER OVERALL NICE DAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
RATHER WEAK. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THE SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
NOTICEABLE. DEW POINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO INCH
UPWARD BUT WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE DAYTIME MIXING
WILL MAINTAIN COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS FOR ONE LAST DAY. LITTLE CHANGE
OF THE AIRMASS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY TO RESULT IN
VERY SIMILAR MAXIMUMS AS FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD IS 2 TO 3
DEGREES SO THE RECENT BLEND SCHEME OF THE LAST FEW DAYS REMAINS
FORECASTERS CHOICE.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A VEERING OF
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
925MB WINDS INCREASE WITH DEW POINT AND TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.
THE BELOW NORMAL NIGHTS WILL BE THE THING OF THE PAST WITH GUIDANCE
PUSHING MINIMUMS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP EXPECTING MORE STRATUS THEN DENSE FOG WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS A BIT TO STRONG BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS BRIEFLY
DROPPING BELOW ONE MILE WHERE WINDS DROP BELOW 5 MPH.

SUNDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AND SKIES WILL SEE
MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN AS THE BIG THREE MODELS GFS/NAM/EC INDICATE
MEAN RH AOB 5000 FEET AROUND 85 PERCENT. THEY EVEN THROW IN SOME
LIGHT QPF AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER WITH ALL THREE INDICATING THE
LOW END POPS CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER. DID NOT MENTION
THUNDER WITH LIMITED FORCING  FROM THE SEA BREEZE AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO LIMITED BY MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...H5 RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS SHIFTS MIDLEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY...WHICH
PULLS PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO BRING DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING AND HOLDING IT IN THE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTINUING IN THE REGION...GOOD UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX IN THE REGION AND NUMEROUS SMALL VORTS SWEEPING THROUGH
DAILY...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FOR EACH DAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT ON ANY DAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WITH THE INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND INCREASES
IN THICKNESSES...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND THE
APPROACH OF MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY AND MODERATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO KEEP SEAS SLIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ONLY INCREASE AROUND ONE FOOT ON SUNDAY. OVERALL,
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FETCH SLOWLY INCREASES EACH
DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...REACHING AROUND 15 KNOTS
BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN AROUND 3 FEET...INCREASING TO NEAR 6
FEET BY WEDNESDAY. NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55



000
FXUS64 KBRO 021604
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1104 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS...NO CHANGE IN REASONING FROM THE
PREVIOUS TAFS FOR TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS WILL KEEP
SUBSIDENCE OVER US WITH THE DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING NOW
WITH BASES AROUND 3500 FEET. WINDS STAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
10-12 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SFC WILL DROP BELOW 6 KNOTS WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET. INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS VISIBILITIES RESTRICTIONS
CLOSER TO SUNRISE AROUND 4-5 MILES. BY MID MORNING THOSE WINDS
WILL MIX DOWN ALONG WITH GRADIENT WINDS AS LEE TROUGHING
STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO S/W TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
19-22 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE RETURN AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
BKN CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION SETS
UP ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT
AROUND 3K FEET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRATUS LAYER DEVELOP AT
AROUND THE SAME HEIGHT RESULTING IN SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND OR AFTER
09Z SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES
REMAIN LOW WITH THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRIFT GRADUALLY
EASTWARD THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED
TODAY AND INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY USHERING IN A STEADY DOSE OF
GULF MOISTURE.

TODAY...ANOTHER OVERALL NICE DAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
RATHER WEAK. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THE SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
NOTICEABLE. DEW POINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO INCH
UPWARD BUT WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE DAYTIME MIXING
WILL MAINTAIN COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS FOR ONE LAST DAY. LITTLE CHANGE
OF THE AIRMASS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY TO RESULT IN
VERY SIMILAR MAXIMUMS AS FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD IS 2 TO 3
DEGREES SO THE RECENT BLEND SCHEME OF THE LAST FEW DAYS REMAINS
FORECASTERS CHOICE.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A VEERING OF
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
925MB WINDS INCREASE WITH DEW POINT AND TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.
THE BELOW NORMAL NIGHTS WILL BE THE THING OF THE PAST WITH GUIDANCE
PUSHING MINIMUMS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP EXPECTING MORE STRATUS THEN DENSE FOG WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS A BIT TO STRONG BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS BRIEFLY
DROPPING BELOW ONE MILE WHERE WINDS DROP BELOW 5 MPH.

SUNDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AND SKIES WILL SEE
MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN AS THE BIG THREE MODELS GFS/NAM/EC INDICATE
MEAN RH AOB 5000 FEET AROUND 85 PERCENT. THEY EVEN THROW IN SOME
LIGHT QPF AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER WITH ALL THREE INDICATING THE
LOW END POPS CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER. DID NOT MENTION
THUNDER WITH LIMITED FORCING  FROM THE SEA BREEZE AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO LIMITED BY MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...H5 RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS SHIFTS MIDLEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY...WHICH
PULLS PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO BRING DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING AND HOLDING IT IN THE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTINUING IN THE REGION...GOOD UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX IN THE REGION AND NUMEROUS SMALL VORTS SWEEPING THROUGH
DAILY...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FOR EACH DAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT ON ANY DAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WITH THE INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND INCREASES
IN THICKNESSES...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND THE
APPROACH OF MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY AND MODERATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO KEEP SEAS SLIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ONLY INCREASE AROUND ONE FOOT ON SUNDAY. OVERALL,
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FETCH SLOWLY INCREASES EACH
DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...REACHING AROUND 15 KNOTS
BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN AROUND 3 FEET...INCREASING TO NEAR 6
FEET BY WEDNESDAY. NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55




000
FXUS64 KHGX 021536
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1036 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED. ENJOY THE GREAT
SPRING WEATHER. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

AVIATION...
JUST A FEW ALTOCUMULUS THIS MORNING MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF
GALVESTON BAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND
VERY LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD CONTINUE WITH VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL MAINLY LIGHT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. TONIGHT
WILL HAVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL START A TREND TOWARD
HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES BUT STILL THINK NO MORE
THAN A FEW PATCHES OF GROUND FOG SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY
STRICTIONS UNLIKELY AT THE TAF SITES. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.
TEMPS RUNNING IN THE 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER S ROCKIES AND INTO TX. THIS SHOULD
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS
TO TRACK. THE FIRST IS WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IS
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE ALUETIAN ISLANDS. THE
FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE S
ROCKIES TUE AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS WITH A NEG TILT ON WED.
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO TX WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN CHANCES. DURING THIS TIME THE SECOND UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON TUE AND THEN REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR W/SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPING NEXT THUR/FRI OVER MUCH OF TX.
IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS
TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUN INTO MON
NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON
TUE WITH NOT MUCH CAPPING AND THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE FIRST UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 50 POPS FOR SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A FEW STORMS. GFS SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED WED/THUR AS PRECIP WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.6-1.8
INCHES. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW 300MB JET BECOMING MORE SPLIT AND
DIFFLUENT OVER TX AND SHOW SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS TX.
FORECAST WILL GO WITH MAINLY 40 POPS WITH THE IDEA POPS COULD GO
HIGHER HAS DETAILS WITH THE JET STRUCTURE BECOME MORE CERTAIN.
THINK STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE BUT ALSO NOTE THAT THERE
SEEMS TO LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS A FRONT TO
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR STORM INITIATION DURING THIS TIME. THAT
SAID...GFS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SEVERE STORM WITH A HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT BUT THINK UPDRAFTS WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER MUCH OF SE TX AND GULF COAST.
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALSO START TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS IN PIECES SO OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

39

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZE AND OTHER SMALL SCALE FEATURES.
FLOW WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ONSHORE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS BY MID WEEK WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  82  63  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  82  63  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  68  81  70  81 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43



000
FXUS64 KHGX 021536
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1036 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED. ENJOY THE GREAT
SPRING WEATHER. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

AVIATION...
JUST A FEW ALTOCUMULUS THIS MORNING MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF
GALVESTON BAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND
VERY LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD CONTINUE WITH VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL MAINLY LIGHT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. TONIGHT
WILL HAVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL START A TREND TOWARD
HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES BUT STILL THINK NO MORE
THAN A FEW PATCHES OF GROUND FOG SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY
STRICTIONS UNLIKELY AT THE TAF SITES. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.
TEMPS RUNNING IN THE 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER S ROCKIES AND INTO TX. THIS SHOULD
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS
TO TRACK. THE FIRST IS WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IS
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE ALUETIAN ISLANDS. THE
FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE S
ROCKIES TUE AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS WITH A NEG TILT ON WED.
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO TX WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN CHANCES. DURING THIS TIME THE SECOND UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON TUE AND THEN REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR W/SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPING NEXT THUR/FRI OVER MUCH OF TX.
IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS
TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUN INTO MON
NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON
TUE WITH NOT MUCH CAPPING AND THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE FIRST UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 50 POPS FOR SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A FEW STORMS. GFS SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED WED/THUR AS PRECIP WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.6-1.8
INCHES. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW 300MB JET BECOMING MORE SPLIT AND
DIFFLUENT OVER TX AND SHOW SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS TX.
FORECAST WILL GO WITH MAINLY 40 POPS WITH THE IDEA POPS COULD GO
HIGHER HAS DETAILS WITH THE JET STRUCTURE BECOME MORE CERTAIN.
THINK STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE BUT ALSO NOTE THAT THERE
SEEMS TO LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS A FRONT TO
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR STORM INITIATION DURING THIS TIME. THAT
SAID...GFS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SEVERE STORM WITH A HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT BUT THINK UPDRAFTS WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER MUCH OF SE TX AND GULF COAST.
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALSO START TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS IN PIECES SO OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

39

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZE AND OTHER SMALL SCALE FEATURES.
FLOW WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ONSHORE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS BY MID WEEK WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  82  63  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  82  63  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  68  81  70  81 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43



000
FXUS64 KHGX 021536
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1036 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED. ENJOY THE GREAT
SPRING WEATHER. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

AVIATION...
JUST A FEW ALTOCUMULUS THIS MORNING MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF
GALVESTON BAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND
VERY LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD CONTINUE WITH VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL MAINLY LIGHT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. TONIGHT
WILL HAVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL START A TREND TOWARD
HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES BUT STILL THINK NO MORE
THAN A FEW PATCHES OF GROUND FOG SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY
STRICTIONS UNLIKELY AT THE TAF SITES. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.
TEMPS RUNNING IN THE 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER S ROCKIES AND INTO TX. THIS SHOULD
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS
TO TRACK. THE FIRST IS WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IS
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE ALUETIAN ISLANDS. THE
FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE S
ROCKIES TUE AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS WITH A NEG TILT ON WED.
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO TX WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN CHANCES. DURING THIS TIME THE SECOND UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON TUE AND THEN REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR W/SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPING NEXT THUR/FRI OVER MUCH OF TX.
IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS
TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUN INTO MON
NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON
TUE WITH NOT MUCH CAPPING AND THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE FIRST UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 50 POPS FOR SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A FEW STORMS. GFS SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED WED/THUR AS PRECIP WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.6-1.8
INCHES. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW 300MB JET BECOMING MORE SPLIT AND
DIFFLUENT OVER TX AND SHOW SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS TX.
FORECAST WILL GO WITH MAINLY 40 POPS WITH THE IDEA POPS COULD GO
HIGHER HAS DETAILS WITH THE JET STRUCTURE BECOME MORE CERTAIN.
THINK STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE BUT ALSO NOTE THAT THERE
SEEMS TO LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS A FRONT TO
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR STORM INITIATION DURING THIS TIME. THAT
SAID...GFS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SEVERE STORM WITH A HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT BUT THINK UPDRAFTS WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER MUCH OF SE TX AND GULF COAST.
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALSO START TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS IN PIECES SO OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

39

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZE AND OTHER SMALL SCALE FEATURES.
FLOW WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ONSHORE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS BY MID WEEK WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  82  63  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  82  63  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  68  81  70  81 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43



000
FXUS64 KHGX 021536
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1036 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON TRACK BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED. ENJOY THE GREAT
SPRING WEATHER. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

AVIATION...
JUST A FEW ALTOCUMULUS THIS MORNING MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF
GALVESTON BAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND
VERY LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD CONTINUE WITH VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL MAINLY LIGHT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. TONIGHT
WILL HAVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL START A TREND TOWARD
HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES BUT STILL THINK NO MORE
THAN A FEW PATCHES OF GROUND FOG SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY
STRICTIONS UNLIKELY AT THE TAF SITES. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.
TEMPS RUNNING IN THE 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER S ROCKIES AND INTO TX. THIS SHOULD
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS
TO TRACK. THE FIRST IS WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IS
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE ALUETIAN ISLANDS. THE
FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE S
ROCKIES TUE AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS WITH A NEG TILT ON WED.
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO TX WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN CHANCES. DURING THIS TIME THE SECOND UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON TUE AND THEN REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR W/SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPING NEXT THUR/FRI OVER MUCH OF TX.
IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS
TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUN INTO MON
NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON
TUE WITH NOT MUCH CAPPING AND THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE FIRST UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 50 POPS FOR SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A FEW STORMS. GFS SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED WED/THUR AS PRECIP WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.6-1.8
INCHES. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW 300MB JET BECOMING MORE SPLIT AND
DIFFLUENT OVER TX AND SHOW SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS TX.
FORECAST WILL GO WITH MAINLY 40 POPS WITH THE IDEA POPS COULD GO
HIGHER HAS DETAILS WITH THE JET STRUCTURE BECOME MORE CERTAIN.
THINK STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE BUT ALSO NOTE THAT THERE
SEEMS TO LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS A FRONT TO
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR STORM INITIATION DURING THIS TIME. THAT
SAID...GFS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SEVERE STORM WITH A HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT BUT THINK UPDRAFTS WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER MUCH OF SE TX AND GULF COAST.
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALSO START TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS IN PIECES SO OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

39

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZE AND OTHER SMALL SCALE FEATURES.
FLOW WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ONSHORE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS BY MID WEEK WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  82  63  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  82  63  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  68  81  70  81 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43



000
FXUS64 KCRP 021530 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND. SO ONLY
MODIFICATION TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          84  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            88  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             86  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          83  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           87  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 021530 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND. SO ONLY
MODIFICATION TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          84  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            88  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             86  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          83  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           87  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 021530 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND. SO ONLY
MODIFICATION TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          84  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            88  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             86  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          83  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           87  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 021530 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND. SO ONLY
MODIFICATION TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          84  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            88  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             86  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          83  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           87  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 021530 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND. SO ONLY
MODIFICATION TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          84  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            88  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             86  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          83  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           87  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 021530 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1030 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND. SO ONLY
MODIFICATION TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD MORE CLOUD COVER FOR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          84  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            88  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             86  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          83  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           87  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KEWX 021147
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT LOW
CLOUDS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOR
NOW...WE WILL ONLY MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR SCT CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...WITH AN UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 6K- 7K AGL RANGE TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z-01Z. WE STILL EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 03/10Z ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND HAVE KEPT THIS IN THE LATEST FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND SOUTH
PLAINS...CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY RAISE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RAISE RH
VALUES INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.

BASICALLY...WARM AFTERNOONS AND MILD NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BEGINNING SUNDAY...A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
SPREADING NORTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (RGV) AND NORTH INTO
THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREAD ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE RGV MONDAY MORNING AND LOW END
CHC POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS...RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SOUTHWARD DIVING
LOW FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL CAUSE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE
EJECTING A SHORTWAVE NORTHEASTWARD AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT IN
THE PROCESS. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING OVERTOP THE MT AIR
IN PLACE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY IN
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. WITH PWAT VALUES TUESDAY ECLIPSING
1.5 INCHES AND SOME DECENT INSTABILITY TO BOOT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. QPF VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A BROAD CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH
INTO NEVADA AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER A BROAD AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
WITHOUT A CLEAR KINEMATIC LIFTING MECHANISM...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SAY WHICH DAYS WILL BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM POTENTIAL
BUT LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RESULT.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  57  83  65  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  56  83  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  57  83  64  80 /   0   0  10   0  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  56  81  62  80 /   0   0  -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  62  86  68  82 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  82  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  59  84  65  81 /   0   0  -   10  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  57  82  64  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  57  82  64  82 /   0   0  -    0  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  58  83  65  79 /   0   0  -   -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  59  84  66  81 /   0   0  10  -   30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 021147
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT LOW
CLOUDS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOR
NOW...WE WILL ONLY MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR SCT CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...WITH AN UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 6K- 7K AGL RANGE TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z-01Z. WE STILL EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 03/10Z ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND HAVE KEPT THIS IN THE LATEST FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND SOUTH
PLAINS...CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY RAISE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RAISE RH
VALUES INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.

BASICALLY...WARM AFTERNOONS AND MILD NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BEGINNING SUNDAY...A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
SPREADING NORTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (RGV) AND NORTH INTO
THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREAD ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE RGV MONDAY MORNING AND LOW END
CHC POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS...RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SOUTHWARD DIVING
LOW FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL CAUSE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE
EJECTING A SHORTWAVE NORTHEASTWARD AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT IN
THE PROCESS. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING OVERTOP THE MT AIR
IN PLACE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY IN
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. WITH PWAT VALUES TUESDAY ECLIPSING
1.5 INCHES AND SOME DECENT INSTABILITY TO BOOT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. QPF VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A BROAD CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH
INTO NEVADA AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER A BROAD AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
WITHOUT A CLEAR KINEMATIC LIFTING MECHANISM...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SAY WHICH DAYS WILL BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM POTENTIAL
BUT LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RESULT.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  57  83  65  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  56  83  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  57  83  64  80 /   0   0  10   0  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  56  81  62  80 /   0   0  -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  62  86  68  82 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  82  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  59  84  65  81 /   0   0  -   10  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  57  82  64  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  57  82  64  82 /   0   0  -    0  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  58  83  65  79 /   0   0  -   -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  59  84  66  81 /   0   0  10  -   30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 021147
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT LOW
CLOUDS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOR
NOW...WE WILL ONLY MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR SCT CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...WITH AN UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 6K- 7K AGL RANGE TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z-01Z. WE STILL EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 03/10Z ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND HAVE KEPT THIS IN THE LATEST FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND SOUTH
PLAINS...CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY RAISE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RAISE RH
VALUES INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.

BASICALLY...WARM AFTERNOONS AND MILD NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BEGINNING SUNDAY...A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
SPREADING NORTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (RGV) AND NORTH INTO
THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREAD ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE RGV MONDAY MORNING AND LOW END
CHC POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS...RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SOUTHWARD DIVING
LOW FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL CAUSE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE
EJECTING A SHORTWAVE NORTHEASTWARD AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT IN
THE PROCESS. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING OVERTOP THE MT AIR
IN PLACE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY IN
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. WITH PWAT VALUES TUESDAY ECLIPSING
1.5 INCHES AND SOME DECENT INSTABILITY TO BOOT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. QPF VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A BROAD CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH
INTO NEVADA AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER A BROAD AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
WITHOUT A CLEAR KINEMATIC LIFTING MECHANISM...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SAY WHICH DAYS WILL BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM POTENTIAL
BUT LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RESULT.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  57  83  65  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  56  83  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  57  83  64  80 /   0   0  10   0  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  56  81  62  80 /   0   0  -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  62  86  68  82 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  82  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  59  84  65  81 /   0   0  -   10  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  57  82  64  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  57  82  64  82 /   0   0  -    0  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  58  83  65  79 /   0   0  -   -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  59  84  66  81 /   0   0  10  -   30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 021147
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT LOW
CLOUDS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOR
NOW...WE WILL ONLY MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR SCT CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...WITH AN UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 6K- 7K AGL RANGE TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z-01Z. WE STILL EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 03/10Z ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND HAVE KEPT THIS IN THE LATEST FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND SOUTH
PLAINS...CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY RAISE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RAISE RH
VALUES INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.

BASICALLY...WARM AFTERNOONS AND MILD NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BEGINNING SUNDAY...A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
SPREADING NORTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (RGV) AND NORTH INTO
THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREAD ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE RGV MONDAY MORNING AND LOW END
CHC POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS...RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SOUTHWARD DIVING
LOW FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL CAUSE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE
EJECTING A SHORTWAVE NORTHEASTWARD AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT IN
THE PROCESS. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING OVERTOP THE MT AIR
IN PLACE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY IN
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. WITH PWAT VALUES TUESDAY ECLIPSING
1.5 INCHES AND SOME DECENT INSTABILITY TO BOOT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. QPF VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A BROAD CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH
INTO NEVADA AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER A BROAD AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
WITHOUT A CLEAR KINEMATIC LIFTING MECHANISM...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SAY WHICH DAYS WILL BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM POTENTIAL
BUT LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RESULT.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  57  83  65  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  56  83  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  57  83  64  80 /   0   0  10   0  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  56  81  62  80 /   0   0  -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  62  86  68  82 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  82  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  59  84  65  81 /   0   0  -   10  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  57  82  64  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  57  82  64  82 /   0   0  -    0  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  58  83  65  79 /   0   0  -   -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  59  84  66  81 /   0   0  10  -   30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 021147
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT LOW
CLOUDS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOR
NOW...WE WILL ONLY MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR SCT CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...WITH AN UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 6K- 7K AGL RANGE TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z-01Z. WE STILL EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 03/10Z ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND HAVE KEPT THIS IN THE LATEST FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND SOUTH
PLAINS...CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY RAISE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RAISE RH
VALUES INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.

BASICALLY...WARM AFTERNOONS AND MILD NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BEGINNING SUNDAY...A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
SPREADING NORTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (RGV) AND NORTH INTO
THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREAD ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE RGV MONDAY MORNING AND LOW END
CHC POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS...RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SOUTHWARD DIVING
LOW FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL CAUSE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE
EJECTING A SHORTWAVE NORTHEASTWARD AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT IN
THE PROCESS. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING OVERTOP THE MT AIR
IN PLACE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY IN
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. WITH PWAT VALUES TUESDAY ECLIPSING
1.5 INCHES AND SOME DECENT INSTABILITY TO BOOT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. QPF VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A BROAD CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH
INTO NEVADA AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER A BROAD AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
WITHOUT A CLEAR KINEMATIC LIFTING MECHANISM...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SAY WHICH DAYS WILL BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM POTENTIAL
BUT LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RESULT.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  57  83  65  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  56  83  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  57  83  64  80 /   0   0  10   0  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  56  81  62  80 /   0   0  -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  62  86  68  82 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  82  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  59  84  65  81 /   0   0  -   10  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  57  82  64  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  57  82  64  82 /   0   0  -    0  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  58  83  65  79 /   0   0  -   -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  59  84  66  81 /   0   0  10  -   30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 021147
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
647 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT LOW
CLOUDS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOR
NOW...WE WILL ONLY MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR SCT CLOUDS THROUGH
15Z. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...WITH AN UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES IN THE 6K- 7K AGL RANGE TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z-01Z. WE STILL EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 03/10Z ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND HAVE KEPT THIS IN THE LATEST FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WITH A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATING THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND SOUTH
PLAINS...CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY RAISE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RAISE RH
VALUES INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.

BASICALLY...WARM AFTERNOONS AND MILD NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BEGINNING SUNDAY...A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
SPREADING NORTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (RGV) AND NORTH INTO
THE PANHANDLE BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREAD ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE RGV MONDAY MORNING AND LOW END
CHC POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS...RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SOUTHWARD DIVING
LOW FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL CAUSE A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE
EJECTING A SHORTWAVE NORTHEASTWARD AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT IN
THE PROCESS. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING OVERTOP THE MT AIR
IN PLACE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MOSTLY IN
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. WITH PWAT VALUES TUESDAY ECLIPSING
1.5 INCHES AND SOME DECENT INSTABILITY TO BOOT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. QPF VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A BROAD CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH
INTO NEVADA AND CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER A BROAD AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH A MOIST AIR MASS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
WITHOUT A CLEAR KINEMATIC LIFTING MECHANISM...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SAY WHICH DAYS WILL BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM POTENTIAL
BUT LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RESULT.

TB3

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  57  83  65  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  56  83  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  57  83  64  80 /   0   0  10   0  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  56  81  62  80 /   0   0  -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  62  86  68  82 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  56  82  62  81 /   0   0  -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  59  84  65  81 /   0   0  -   10  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  57  82  64  81 /   0   0  -    0  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  57  82  64  82 /   0   0  -    0  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  58  83  65  79 /   0   0  -   -   30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  59  84  66  81 /   0   0  10  -   30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24



000
FXUS64 KCRP 021141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH 10SM ON THE VSBYS AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 1-4
DEGREES...LOOKS LIKE THE FOG IS (AND WILL BE) A NO-SHOW (OR SHORT-
LIVED AT WORST). THUS...TOOK IT OUT EXCEPT AT KVCT WHERE IT COULD
DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND MOISTURE
WILL BE A BIT BETTER OVERNIGHT...SO THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
STRATO-CU AROUND OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE MVFR CIGS (MAINLY AT KLRD) BEFORE END
OF FORECAST PERIOD. IN SHORT...PUT MVFR IN TERMINAL AT KLRD BUT
HELD OFF ELSEWHERE AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO PUT SOMETHING IN
THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 06Z
TAFS AS KEEPING SOUTH WINDS 11 KNOTS OR LESS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
(GUSTY AT KCRP) DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...NO MAJOR ISSUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT RIDGE PRETTY MUCH STAYS INTACT SO NO
RAINFALL EXPECTED. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND CAP IS BREAKING DOWN TO WHERE ONE COULD NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE
SHOWER/STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL PREFER TO HOLD OFF
ON ANYTHING AT THIS TIME AS EXPECT ACTIVITY IF ANY TO BE TOO
ISOLATED TO BROAD-BRUSH A 20 POP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. COULD
NOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING FOG INLAND-CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING
AND NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY MORNING. INTERESTING WEATHER APPEARS
TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORT TERM.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WINDS BELOW SCEC/SCA THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WOULD IMAGINE THEY WILL GET CLOSE LATE. BETTER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN INLAND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY SO NO STREAMER SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OVERALL NOT TOO BAD FOR BOATING THIS
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...30 TO 35 KT SE LLJ IS
PROG TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
AS A STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT H5 VORT MAXIMUMS ADVECTING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF CONVECTION. PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK
WILL BE AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AROUND H7 WHICH MAY ACT AS A CAPPING
INVERSION. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK/ TO OVERCOME THIS
NEGATING FACTOR. GIVEN NIGHTLY INCREASE IN NOCTURNAL LLJ AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SUBTROPICAL JET POSITIONING...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR TWO MCS DEVELOP ACROSS EWX CWA/INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEK AND TRY TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA...BUT TOO
EARLY TO GET TOO DETAILED WITH THAT THREAT. ASIDE FROM PRECIP
CHANCES...AN INCREASE IN HUMID CONDITIONS IS PROG TO OCCUR THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AND MIN TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          83  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            86  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             85  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          82  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           86  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 021141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH 10SM ON THE VSBYS AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 1-4
DEGREES...LOOKS LIKE THE FOG IS (AND WILL BE) A NO-SHOW (OR SHORT-
LIVED AT WORST). THUS...TOOK IT OUT EXCEPT AT KVCT WHERE IT COULD
DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND MOISTURE
WILL BE A BIT BETTER OVERNIGHT...SO THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
STRATO-CU AROUND OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE MVFR CIGS (MAINLY AT KLRD) BEFORE END
OF FORECAST PERIOD. IN SHORT...PUT MVFR IN TERMINAL AT KLRD BUT
HELD OFF ELSEWHERE AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO PUT SOMETHING IN
THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 06Z
TAFS AS KEEPING SOUTH WINDS 11 KNOTS OR LESS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
(GUSTY AT KCRP) DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...NO MAJOR ISSUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT RIDGE PRETTY MUCH STAYS INTACT SO NO
RAINFALL EXPECTED. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND CAP IS BREAKING DOWN TO WHERE ONE COULD NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE
SHOWER/STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL PREFER TO HOLD OFF
ON ANYTHING AT THIS TIME AS EXPECT ACTIVITY IF ANY TO BE TOO
ISOLATED TO BROAD-BRUSH A 20 POP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. COULD
NOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING FOG INLAND-CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING
AND NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY MORNING. INTERESTING WEATHER APPEARS
TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORT TERM.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WINDS BELOW SCEC/SCA THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WOULD IMAGINE THEY WILL GET CLOSE LATE. BETTER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN INLAND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY SO NO STREAMER SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OVERALL NOT TOO BAD FOR BOATING THIS
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...30 TO 35 KT SE LLJ IS
PROG TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
AS A STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT H5 VORT MAXIMUMS ADVECTING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF CONVECTION. PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK
WILL BE AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AROUND H7 WHICH MAY ACT AS A CAPPING
INVERSION. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK/ TO OVERCOME THIS
NEGATING FACTOR. GIVEN NIGHTLY INCREASE IN NOCTURNAL LLJ AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SUBTROPICAL JET POSITIONING...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR TWO MCS DEVELOP ACROSS EWX CWA/INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEK AND TRY TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA...BUT TOO
EARLY TO GET TOO DETAILED WITH THAT THREAT. ASIDE FROM PRECIP
CHANCES...AN INCREASE IN HUMID CONDITIONS IS PROG TO OCCUR THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AND MIN TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          83  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            86  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             85  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          82  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           86  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 021141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH 10SM ON THE VSBYS AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 1-4
DEGREES...LOOKS LIKE THE FOG IS (AND WILL BE) A NO-SHOW (OR SHORT-
LIVED AT WORST). THUS...TOOK IT OUT EXCEPT AT KVCT WHERE IT COULD
DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND MOISTURE
WILL BE A BIT BETTER OVERNIGHT...SO THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
STRATO-CU AROUND OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE MVFR CIGS (MAINLY AT KLRD) BEFORE END
OF FORECAST PERIOD. IN SHORT...PUT MVFR IN TERMINAL AT KLRD BUT
HELD OFF ELSEWHERE AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO PUT SOMETHING IN
THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 06Z
TAFS AS KEEPING SOUTH WINDS 11 KNOTS OR LESS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
(GUSTY AT KCRP) DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...NO MAJOR ISSUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT RIDGE PRETTY MUCH STAYS INTACT SO NO
RAINFALL EXPECTED. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND CAP IS BREAKING DOWN TO WHERE ONE COULD NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE
SHOWER/STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL PREFER TO HOLD OFF
ON ANYTHING AT THIS TIME AS EXPECT ACTIVITY IF ANY TO BE TOO
ISOLATED TO BROAD-BRUSH A 20 POP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. COULD
NOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING FOG INLAND-CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING
AND NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY MORNING. INTERESTING WEATHER APPEARS
TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORT TERM.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WINDS BELOW SCEC/SCA THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WOULD IMAGINE THEY WILL GET CLOSE LATE. BETTER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN INLAND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY SO NO STREAMER SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OVERALL NOT TOO BAD FOR BOATING THIS
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...30 TO 35 KT SE LLJ IS
PROG TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
AS A STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT H5 VORT MAXIMUMS ADVECTING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF CONVECTION. PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK
WILL BE AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AROUND H7 WHICH MAY ACT AS A CAPPING
INVERSION. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK/ TO OVERCOME THIS
NEGATING FACTOR. GIVEN NIGHTLY INCREASE IN NOCTURNAL LLJ AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SUBTROPICAL JET POSITIONING...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR TWO MCS DEVELOP ACROSS EWX CWA/INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEK AND TRY TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA...BUT TOO
EARLY TO GET TOO DETAILED WITH THAT THREAT. ASIDE FROM PRECIP
CHANCES...AN INCREASE IN HUMID CONDITIONS IS PROG TO OCCUR THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AND MIN TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          83  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            86  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             85  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          82  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           86  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 021141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH 10SM ON THE VSBYS AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 1-4
DEGREES...LOOKS LIKE THE FOG IS (AND WILL BE) A NO-SHOW (OR SHORT-
LIVED AT WORST). THUS...TOOK IT OUT EXCEPT AT KVCT WHERE IT COULD
DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND MOISTURE
WILL BE A BIT BETTER OVERNIGHT...SO THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
STRATO-CU AROUND OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE MVFR CIGS (MAINLY AT KLRD) BEFORE END
OF FORECAST PERIOD. IN SHORT...PUT MVFR IN TERMINAL AT KLRD BUT
HELD OFF ELSEWHERE AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO PUT SOMETHING IN
THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 06Z
TAFS AS KEEPING SOUTH WINDS 11 KNOTS OR LESS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
(GUSTY AT KCRP) DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...NO MAJOR ISSUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT RIDGE PRETTY MUCH STAYS INTACT SO NO
RAINFALL EXPECTED. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND CAP IS BREAKING DOWN TO WHERE ONE COULD NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE
SHOWER/STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL PREFER TO HOLD OFF
ON ANYTHING AT THIS TIME AS EXPECT ACTIVITY IF ANY TO BE TOO
ISOLATED TO BROAD-BRUSH A 20 POP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. COULD
NOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING FOG INLAND-CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING
AND NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY MORNING. INTERESTING WEATHER APPEARS
TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORT TERM.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WINDS BELOW SCEC/SCA THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WOULD IMAGINE THEY WILL GET CLOSE LATE. BETTER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN INLAND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY SO NO STREAMER SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OVERALL NOT TOO BAD FOR BOATING THIS
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...30 TO 35 KT SE LLJ IS
PROG TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
AS A STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT H5 VORT MAXIMUMS ADVECTING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF CONVECTION. PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK
WILL BE AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AROUND H7 WHICH MAY ACT AS A CAPPING
INVERSION. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK/ TO OVERCOME THIS
NEGATING FACTOR. GIVEN NIGHTLY INCREASE IN NOCTURNAL LLJ AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SUBTROPICAL JET POSITIONING...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR TWO MCS DEVELOP ACROSS EWX CWA/INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEK AND TRY TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA...BUT TOO
EARLY TO GET TOO DETAILED WITH THAT THREAT. ASIDE FROM PRECIP
CHANCES...AN INCREASE IN HUMID CONDITIONS IS PROG TO OCCUR THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AND MIN TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          83  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            86  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             85  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          82  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           86  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 021141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH 10SM ON THE VSBYS AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 1-4
DEGREES...LOOKS LIKE THE FOG IS (AND WILL BE) A NO-SHOW (OR SHORT-
LIVED AT WORST). THUS...TOOK IT OUT EXCEPT AT KVCT WHERE IT COULD
DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND MOISTURE
WILL BE A BIT BETTER OVERNIGHT...SO THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
STRATO-CU AROUND OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE MVFR CIGS (MAINLY AT KLRD) BEFORE END
OF FORECAST PERIOD. IN SHORT...PUT MVFR IN TERMINAL AT KLRD BUT
HELD OFF ELSEWHERE AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO PUT SOMETHING IN
THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 06Z
TAFS AS KEEPING SOUTH WINDS 11 KNOTS OR LESS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
(GUSTY AT KCRP) DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...NO MAJOR ISSUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT RIDGE PRETTY MUCH STAYS INTACT SO NO
RAINFALL EXPECTED. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND CAP IS BREAKING DOWN TO WHERE ONE COULD NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE
SHOWER/STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL PREFER TO HOLD OFF
ON ANYTHING AT THIS TIME AS EXPECT ACTIVITY IF ANY TO BE TOO
ISOLATED TO BROAD-BRUSH A 20 POP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. COULD
NOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING FOG INLAND-CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING
AND NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY MORNING. INTERESTING WEATHER APPEARS
TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORT TERM.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WINDS BELOW SCEC/SCA THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WOULD IMAGINE THEY WILL GET CLOSE LATE. BETTER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN INLAND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY SO NO STREAMER SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OVERALL NOT TOO BAD FOR BOATING THIS
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...30 TO 35 KT SE LLJ IS
PROG TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
AS A STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT H5 VORT MAXIMUMS ADVECTING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF CONVECTION. PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK
WILL BE AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AROUND H7 WHICH MAY ACT AS A CAPPING
INVERSION. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK/ TO OVERCOME THIS
NEGATING FACTOR. GIVEN NIGHTLY INCREASE IN NOCTURNAL LLJ AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SUBTROPICAL JET POSITIONING...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR TWO MCS DEVELOP ACROSS EWX CWA/INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEK AND TRY TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA...BUT TOO
EARLY TO GET TOO DETAILED WITH THAT THREAT. ASIDE FROM PRECIP
CHANCES...AN INCREASE IN HUMID CONDITIONS IS PROG TO OCCUR THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AND MIN TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          83  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            86  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             85  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          82  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           86  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 021141 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH 10SM ON THE VSBYS AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 1-4
DEGREES...LOOKS LIKE THE FOG IS (AND WILL BE) A NO-SHOW (OR SHORT-
LIVED AT WORST). THUS...TOOK IT OUT EXCEPT AT KVCT WHERE IT COULD
DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND MOISTURE
WILL BE A BIT BETTER OVERNIGHT...SO THINK THERE COULD BE SOME
STRATO-CU AROUND OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE MVFR CIGS (MAINLY AT KLRD) BEFORE END
OF FORECAST PERIOD. IN SHORT...PUT MVFR IN TERMINAL AT KLRD BUT
HELD OFF ELSEWHERE AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO PUT SOMETHING IN
THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 06Z
TAFS AS KEEPING SOUTH WINDS 11 KNOTS OR LESS BECOMING SOUTHEAST
(GUSTY AT KCRP) DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...NO MAJOR ISSUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT RIDGE PRETTY MUCH STAYS INTACT SO NO
RAINFALL EXPECTED. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND CAP IS BREAKING DOWN TO WHERE ONE COULD NOT RULE OUT A ROGUE
SHOWER/STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL PREFER TO HOLD OFF
ON ANYTHING AT THIS TIME AS EXPECT ACTIVITY IF ANY TO BE TOO
ISOLATED TO BROAD-BRUSH A 20 POP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. COULD
NOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING FOG INLAND-CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING
AND NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY MORNING. INTERESTING WEATHER APPEARS
TO OCCUR AFTER THE SHORT TERM.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WINDS BELOW SCEC/SCA THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WOULD IMAGINE THEY WILL GET CLOSE LATE. BETTER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN INLAND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY SO NO STREAMER SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OVERALL NOT TOO BAD FOR BOATING THIS
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...30 TO 35 KT SE LLJ IS
PROG TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
AS A STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT H5 VORT MAXIMUMS ADVECTING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF CONVECTION. PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK
WILL BE AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AROUND H7 WHICH MAY ACT AS A CAPPING
INVERSION. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK/ TO OVERCOME THIS
NEGATING FACTOR. GIVEN NIGHTLY INCREASE IN NOCTURNAL LLJ AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SUBTROPICAL JET POSITIONING...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR TWO MCS DEVELOP ACROSS EWX CWA/INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEK AND TRY TO SHIFT INTO OUR CWA...BUT TOO
EARLY TO GET TOO DETAILED WITH THAT THREAT. ASIDE FROM PRECIP
CHANCES...AN INCREASE IN HUMID CONDITIONS IS PROG TO OCCUR THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS AND MIN TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  65  83  70  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
VICTORIA          83  60  84  66  84  /   0   0  10  10  20
LAREDO            86  66  88  70  85  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             85  62  86  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          82  69  83  72  83  /   0   0  10  10  20
COTULLA           86  62  87  68  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        84  63  85  69  85  /   0   0  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  81  72  82  /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KFWD 021139
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE...WACO WILL
EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH 15Z BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. OTHERWISE ...SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z. A RELATIVELY
LIGHT S/SE SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT LEADING TO
SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND GUSTIER CONDITIONS AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

BRADSHAW


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

IT IS GOING TO BE A GREAT WEEKEND TO ENJOY THE OUTDOORS BEFORE
THE RAIN RETURNS NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALREADY
STARTING TO MOVE OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THE 00Z
FORECAST MODEL RUNS FAILED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DENSE DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS CROSSING THE RED RIVER INTO NORTH TEXAS AS OF 3 AM. WILL
PREVAIL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A THINNING OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ON
SUNDAY...JUST ABOUT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S.

ON MONDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BE REPLACED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE-
RICH AIR INTO THE REGION AND DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO SET THE STAGE FOR RAIN CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARIZONA AND COLORADO...SPREADING LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. A FEW STRONG
OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
THREAT AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH +2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE NORTH- SOUTH
ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO INCREASES THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT
WE CONTINUE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A WET PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. OUR THINKING IS
THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUOUS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS LOW. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
IN A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT DUE TO A SPLIT JET STREAM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WEAKLY CAPPED OR UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE.
THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP DUE TO A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WITH AT LEAST
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 30-40 POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ON THESE DAYS BUT
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS. CAPE VALUES ARE OVER 1000 J/KG AT TIMES
WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP...BUT WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE LOWER END
AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CAPE ARE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF TALL/SKINNY CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. HOWEVER...WITH
PWAT VALUES STILL AVERAGING +2SD...HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS DURING THIS PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST BEGINS A SLOW MOVEMENT EAST BUT IT
MAY BREAK DOWN TO OUR NORTH BEFORE IT HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY HOLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  60  81  63  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              83  56  82  62  82 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             78  58  79  59  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            79  59  81  61  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  81  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            80  61  83  63  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           82  58  81  62  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  57  82  61  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            82  56  81  62  81 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     81  57  83  60  80 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 021139
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE...WACO WILL
EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH 15Z BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. OTHERWISE ...SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z. A RELATIVELY
LIGHT S/SE SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT LEADING TO
SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND GUSTIER CONDITIONS AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

BRADSHAW


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

IT IS GOING TO BE A GREAT WEEKEND TO ENJOY THE OUTDOORS BEFORE
THE RAIN RETURNS NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALREADY
STARTING TO MOVE OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THE 00Z
FORECAST MODEL RUNS FAILED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DENSE DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS CROSSING THE RED RIVER INTO NORTH TEXAS AS OF 3 AM. WILL
PREVAIL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A THINNING OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ON
SUNDAY...JUST ABOUT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S.

ON MONDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BE REPLACED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE-
RICH AIR INTO THE REGION AND DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO SET THE STAGE FOR RAIN CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARIZONA AND COLORADO...SPREADING LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. A FEW STRONG
OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
THREAT AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH +2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE NORTH- SOUTH
ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO INCREASES THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT
WE CONTINUE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A WET PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. OUR THINKING IS
THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUOUS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS LOW. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
IN A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT DUE TO A SPLIT JET STREAM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WEAKLY CAPPED OR UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE.
THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP DUE TO A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WITH AT LEAST
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 30-40 POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ON THESE DAYS BUT
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS. CAPE VALUES ARE OVER 1000 J/KG AT TIMES
WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP...BUT WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE LOWER END
AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CAPE ARE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF TALL/SKINNY CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. HOWEVER...WITH
PWAT VALUES STILL AVERAGING +2SD...HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS DURING THIS PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST BEGINS A SLOW MOVEMENT EAST BUT IT
MAY BREAK DOWN TO OUR NORTH BEFORE IT HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY HOLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  60  81  63  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              83  56  82  62  82 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             78  58  79  59  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            79  59  81  61  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  81  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            80  61  83  63  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           82  58  81  62  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  57  82  61  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            82  56  81  62  81 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     81  57  83  60  80 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 021139
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE...WACO WILL
EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH 15Z BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. OTHERWISE ...SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z. A RELATIVELY
LIGHT S/SE SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT LEADING TO
SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND GUSTIER CONDITIONS AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

BRADSHAW


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

IT IS GOING TO BE A GREAT WEEKEND TO ENJOY THE OUTDOORS BEFORE
THE RAIN RETURNS NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALREADY
STARTING TO MOVE OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THE 00Z
FORECAST MODEL RUNS FAILED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DENSE DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS CROSSING THE RED RIVER INTO NORTH TEXAS AS OF 3 AM. WILL
PREVAIL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A THINNING OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ON
SUNDAY...JUST ABOUT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S.

ON MONDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BE REPLACED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE-
RICH AIR INTO THE REGION AND DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO SET THE STAGE FOR RAIN CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARIZONA AND COLORADO...SPREADING LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. A FEW STRONG
OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
THREAT AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH +2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE NORTH- SOUTH
ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO INCREASES THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT
WE CONTINUE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A WET PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. OUR THINKING IS
THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUOUS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS LOW. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
IN A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT DUE TO A SPLIT JET STREAM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WEAKLY CAPPED OR UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE.
THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP DUE TO A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WITH AT LEAST
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 30-40 POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ON THESE DAYS BUT
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS. CAPE VALUES ARE OVER 1000 J/KG AT TIMES
WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP...BUT WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE LOWER END
AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CAPE ARE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF TALL/SKINNY CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. HOWEVER...WITH
PWAT VALUES STILL AVERAGING +2SD...HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS DURING THIS PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST BEGINS A SLOW MOVEMENT EAST BUT IT
MAY BREAK DOWN TO OUR NORTH BEFORE IT HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY HOLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  60  81  63  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              83  56  82  62  82 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             78  58  79  59  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            79  59  81  61  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  81  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            80  61  83  63  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           82  58  81  62  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  57  82  61  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            82  56  81  62  81 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     81  57  83  60  80 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 021139
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE...WACO WILL
EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH 15Z BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. OTHERWISE ...SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z. A RELATIVELY
LIGHT S/SE SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING GRADIENT LEADING TO
SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND GUSTIER CONDITIONS AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

BRADSHAW


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

IT IS GOING TO BE A GREAT WEEKEND TO ENJOY THE OUTDOORS BEFORE
THE RAIN RETURNS NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALREADY
STARTING TO MOVE OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
STRENGTHEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. THE 00Z
FORECAST MODEL RUNS FAILED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DENSE DECK OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS CROSSING THE RED RIVER INTO NORTH TEXAS AS OF 3 AM. WILL
PREVAIL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A THINNING OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ON
SUNDAY...JUST ABOUT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S.

ON MONDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BE REPLACED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE-
RICH AIR INTO THE REGION AND DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO SET THE STAGE FOR RAIN CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARIZONA AND COLORADO...SPREADING LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. A FEW STRONG
OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT AN OUTBREAK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
THREAT AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH +2SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE NORTH- SOUTH
ORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO INCREASES THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT
WE CONTINUE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A WET PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. OUR THINKING IS
THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUOUS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS LOW. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
IN A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT DUE TO A SPLIT JET STREAM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WEAKLY CAPPED OR UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE.
THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP DUE TO A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WITH AT LEAST
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 30-40 POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ON THESE DAYS BUT
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS. CAPE VALUES ARE OVER 1000 J/KG AT TIMES
WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP...BUT WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE ON THE LOWER END
AND LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CAPE ARE MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF TALL/SKINNY CAPE ENVIRONMENTS. HOWEVER...WITH
PWAT VALUES STILL AVERAGING +2SD...HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS DURING THIS PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES COULD POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST BEGINS A SLOW MOVEMENT EAST BUT IT
MAY BREAK DOWN TO OUR NORTH BEFORE IT HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY HOLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

JLDUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  60  81  63  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              83  56  82  62  82 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             78  58  79  59  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            79  59  81  61  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  58  81  60  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            80  61  83  63  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           82  58  81  62  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         81  57  82  61  81 /  10  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            82  56  81  62  81 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     81  57  83  60  80 /   5   5   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 021137
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
JUST A FEW ALTOCUMULUS THIS MORNING MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF
GALVESTON BAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND
VERY LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD CONTINUE WITH VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL MAINLY LIGHT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. TONIGHT
WILL HAVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL START A TREND TOWARD
HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES BUT STILL THINK NO MORE
THAN A FEW PATCHES OF GROUND FOG SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY
STRICTIONS UNLIKELY AT THE TAF SITES. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.
TEMPS RUNNING IN THE 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER S ROCKIES AND INTO TX. THIS SHOULD
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS
TO TRACK. THE FIRST IS WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IS
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE ALUETIAN ISLANDS. THE
FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE S
ROCKIES TUE AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS WITH A NEG TILT ON WED.
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO TX WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN CHANCES. DURING THIS TIME THE SECOND UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON TUE AND THEN REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR W/SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPING NEXT THUR/FRI OVER MUCH OF TX.
IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS
TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUN INTO MON
NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON
TUE WITH NOT MUCH CAPPING AND THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE FIRST UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 50 POPS FOR SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A FEW STORMS. GFS SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED WED/THUR AS PRECIP WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.6-1.8
INCHES. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW 300MB JET BECOMING MORE SPLIT AND
DIFFLUENT OVER TX AND SHOW SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS TX.
FORECAST WILL GO WITH MAINLY 40 POPS WITH THE IDEA POPS COULD GO
HIGHER HAS DETAILS WITH THE JET STRUCTURE BECOME MORE CERTAIN.
THINK STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE BUT ALSO NOTE THAT THERE
SEEMS TO LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS A FRONT TO
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR STORM INITIATION DURING THIS TIME. THAT
SAID...GFS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SEVERE STORM WITH A HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT BUT THINK UPDRAFTS WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER MUCH OF SE TX AND GULF COAST.
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALSO START TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS IN PIECES SO OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

39

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZE AND OTHER SMALL SCALE FEATURES.
FLOW WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ONSHORE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS BY MID WEEK WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  82  63  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  82  63  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  68  81  70  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99



000
FXUS64 KHGX 021137
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
JUST A FEW ALTOCUMULUS THIS MORNING MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF
GALVESTON BAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND
VERY LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD CONTINUE WITH VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL MAINLY LIGHT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. TONIGHT
WILL HAVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL START A TREND TOWARD
HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES BUT STILL THINK NO MORE
THAN A FEW PATCHES OF GROUND FOG SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY
STRICTIONS UNLIKELY AT THE TAF SITES. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.
TEMPS RUNNING IN THE 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER S ROCKIES AND INTO TX. THIS SHOULD
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS
TO TRACK. THE FIRST IS WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IS
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE ALUETIAN ISLANDS. THE
FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE S
ROCKIES TUE AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS WITH A NEG TILT ON WED.
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO TX WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN CHANCES. DURING THIS TIME THE SECOND UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON TUE AND THEN REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR W/SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPING NEXT THUR/FRI OVER MUCH OF TX.
IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS
TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUN INTO MON
NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON
TUE WITH NOT MUCH CAPPING AND THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE FIRST UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 50 POPS FOR SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A FEW STORMS. GFS SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED WED/THUR AS PRECIP WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.6-1.8
INCHES. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW 300MB JET BECOMING MORE SPLIT AND
DIFFLUENT OVER TX AND SHOW SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS TX.
FORECAST WILL GO WITH MAINLY 40 POPS WITH THE IDEA POPS COULD GO
HIGHER HAS DETAILS WITH THE JET STRUCTURE BECOME MORE CERTAIN.
THINK STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE BUT ALSO NOTE THAT THERE
SEEMS TO LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS A FRONT TO
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR STORM INITIATION DURING THIS TIME. THAT
SAID...GFS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SEVERE STORM WITH A HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT BUT THINK UPDRAFTS WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER MUCH OF SE TX AND GULF COAST.
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALSO START TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS IN PIECES SO OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

39

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZE AND OTHER SMALL SCALE FEATURES.
FLOW WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ONSHORE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS BY MID WEEK WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  82  63  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  82  63  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  68  81  70  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99



000
FXUS64 KHGX 021137
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
JUST A FEW ALTOCUMULUS THIS MORNING MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF
GALVESTON BAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND
VERY LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD CONTINUE WITH VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL MAINLY LIGHT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. TONIGHT
WILL HAVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL START A TREND TOWARD
HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES BUT STILL THINK NO MORE
THAN A FEW PATCHES OF GROUND FOG SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY
STRICTIONS UNLIKELY AT THE TAF SITES. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.
TEMPS RUNNING IN THE 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER S ROCKIES AND INTO TX. THIS SHOULD
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS
TO TRACK. THE FIRST IS WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IS
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE ALUETIAN ISLANDS. THE
FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE S
ROCKIES TUE AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS WITH A NEG TILT ON WED.
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO TX WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN CHANCES. DURING THIS TIME THE SECOND UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON TUE AND THEN REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR W/SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPING NEXT THUR/FRI OVER MUCH OF TX.
IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS
TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUN INTO MON
NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON
TUE WITH NOT MUCH CAPPING AND THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE FIRST UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 50 POPS FOR SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A FEW STORMS. GFS SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED WED/THUR AS PRECIP WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.6-1.8
INCHES. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW 300MB JET BECOMING MORE SPLIT AND
DIFFLUENT OVER TX AND SHOW SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS TX.
FORECAST WILL GO WITH MAINLY 40 POPS WITH THE IDEA POPS COULD GO
HIGHER HAS DETAILS WITH THE JET STRUCTURE BECOME MORE CERTAIN.
THINK STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE BUT ALSO NOTE THAT THERE
SEEMS TO LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS A FRONT TO
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR STORM INITIATION DURING THIS TIME. THAT
SAID...GFS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SEVERE STORM WITH A HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT BUT THINK UPDRAFTS WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER MUCH OF SE TX AND GULF COAST.
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALSO START TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS IN PIECES SO OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

39

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZE AND OTHER SMALL SCALE FEATURES.
FLOW WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ONSHORE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS BY MID WEEK WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  82  63  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  82  63  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  68  81  70  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99



000
FXUS64 KHGX 021137
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
JUST A FEW ALTOCUMULUS THIS MORNING MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF
GALVESTON BAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND
VERY LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD CONTINUE WITH VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL MAINLY LIGHT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. TONIGHT
WILL HAVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL START A TREND TOWARD
HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES BUT STILL THINK NO MORE
THAN A FEW PATCHES OF GROUND FOG SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY
STRICTIONS UNLIKELY AT THE TAF SITES. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.
TEMPS RUNNING IN THE 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER S ROCKIES AND INTO TX. THIS SHOULD
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS
TO TRACK. THE FIRST IS WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IS
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE ALUETIAN ISLANDS. THE
FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE S
ROCKIES TUE AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS WITH A NEG TILT ON WED.
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO TX WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN CHANCES. DURING THIS TIME THE SECOND UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON TUE AND THEN REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR W/SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPING NEXT THUR/FRI OVER MUCH OF TX.
IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS
TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUN INTO MON
NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON
TUE WITH NOT MUCH CAPPING AND THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE FIRST UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 50 POPS FOR SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A FEW STORMS. GFS SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED WED/THUR AS PRECIP WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.6-1.8
INCHES. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW 300MB JET BECOMING MORE SPLIT AND
DIFFLUENT OVER TX AND SHOW SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS TX.
FORECAST WILL GO WITH MAINLY 40 POPS WITH THE IDEA POPS COULD GO
HIGHER HAS DETAILS WITH THE JET STRUCTURE BECOME MORE CERTAIN.
THINK STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE BUT ALSO NOTE THAT THERE
SEEMS TO LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS A FRONT TO
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR STORM INITIATION DURING THIS TIME. THAT
SAID...GFS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SEVERE STORM WITH A HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT BUT THINK UPDRAFTS WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER MUCH OF SE TX AND GULF COAST.
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALSO START TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS IN PIECES SO OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

39

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZE AND OTHER SMALL SCALE FEATURES.
FLOW WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ONSHORE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS BY MID WEEK WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  82  63  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  82  63  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  68  81  70  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99



000
FXUS64 KHGX 021137
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
637 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
JUST A FEW ALTOCUMULUS THIS MORNING MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF
GALVESTON BAY...OTHERWISE CLEAR WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND
VERY LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD CONTINUE WITH VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL MAINLY LIGHT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. TONIGHT
WILL HAVE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL START A TREND TOWARD
HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES BUT STILL THINK NO MORE
THAN A FEW PATCHES OF GROUND FOG SUNDAY MORNING...WITH VISIBILITY
STRICTIONS UNLIKELY AT THE TAF SITES. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.
TEMPS RUNNING IN THE 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER S ROCKIES AND INTO TX. THIS SHOULD
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS
TO TRACK. THE FIRST IS WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND THE OTHER IS
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE ALUETIAN ISLANDS. THE
FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS REACHING THE S
ROCKIES TUE AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS WITH A NEG TILT ON WED.
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO TX WHICH WILL
SUPPORT SOME RAIN CHANCES. DURING THIS TIME THE SECOND UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON TUE AND THEN REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR W/SW FLOW ALOFT WITH
SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPING NEXT THUR/FRI OVER MUCH OF TX.
IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OCCURS
TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUN INTO MON
NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON
TUE WITH NOT MUCH CAPPING AND THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE FIRST UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST WILL GO WITH 50 POPS FOR SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A FEW STORMS. GFS SHOWS MOISTURE BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED WED/THUR AS PRECIP WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.6-1.8
INCHES. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW 300MB JET BECOMING MORE SPLIT AND
DIFFLUENT OVER TX AND SHOW SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS TX.
FORECAST WILL GO WITH MAINLY 40 POPS WITH THE IDEA POPS COULD GO
HIGHER HAS DETAILS WITH THE JET STRUCTURE BECOME MORE CERTAIN.
THINK STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME GIVEN
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE BUT ALSO NOTE THAT THERE
SEEMS TO LACK A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM SUCH AS A FRONT TO
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS MEANS MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR STORM INITIATION DURING THIS TIME. THAT
SAID...GFS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SEVERE STORM WITH A HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT BUT THINK UPDRAFTS WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER MUCH OF SE TX AND GULF COAST.
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALSO START TO MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS IN PIECES SO OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

39

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZE AND OTHER SMALL SCALE FEATURES.
FLOW WILL BECOME MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUE ONSHORE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS BY MID WEEK WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  59  82  63  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  60  82  63  83 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  68  81  70  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99



000
FXUS64 KBRO 021131 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE RETURN AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
BKN CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION SETS
UP ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT
AROUND 3K FEET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRATUS LAYER DEVELOP AT
AROUND THE SAME HEIGHT RESULTING IN SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND OR AFTER
09Z SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES
REMAIN LOW WITH THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRIFT GRADUALLY
EASTWARD THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED
TODAY AND INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY USHERING IN A STEADY DOSE OF
GULF MOISTURE.

TODAY...ANOTHER OVERALL NICE DAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
RATHER WEAK. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THE SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
NOTICEABLE. DEW POINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO INCH
UPWARD BUT WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE DAYTIME MIXING
WILL MAINTAIN COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS FOR ONE LAST DAY. LITTLE CHANGE
OF THE AIRMASS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY TO RESULT IN
VERY SIMILAR MAXIMUMS AS FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD IS 2 TO 3
DEGREES SO THE RECENT BLEND SCHEME OF THE LAST FEW DAYS REMAINS
FORECASTERS CHOICE.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A VEERING OF
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
925MB WINDS INCREASE WITH DEW POINT AND TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.
THE BELOW NORMAL NIGHTS WILL BE THE THING OF THE PAST WITH GUIDANCE
PUSHING MINIMUMS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP EXPECTING MORE STRATUS THEN DENSE FOG WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS A BIT TO STRONG BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS BRIEFLY
DROPPING BELOW ONE MILE WHERE WINDS DROP BELOW 5 MPH.

SUNDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AND SKIES WILL SEE
MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN AS THE BIG THREE MODELS GFS/NAM/EC INDICATE
MEAN RH AOB 5000 FEET AROUND 85 PERCENT. THEY EVEN THROW IN SOME
LIGHT QPF AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER WITH ALL THREE INDICATING THE
LOW END POPS CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER. DID NOT MENTION
THUNDER WITH LIMITED FORCING  FROM THE SEA BREEZE AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO LIMITED BY MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...H5 RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS SHIFTS MIDLEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY...WHICH
PULLS PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO BRING DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING AND HOLDING IT IN THE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTINUING IN THE REGION...GOOD UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX IN THE REGION AND NUMEROUS SMALL VORTS SWEEPING THROUGH
DAILY...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FOR EACH DAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT ON ANY DAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WITH THE INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND INCREASES
IN THICKNESSES...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND THE
APPROACH OF MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY AND MODERATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO KEEP SEAS SLIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ONLY INCREASE AROUND ONE FOOT ON SUNDAY. OVERALL,
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FETCH SLOWLY INCREASES EACH
DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...REACHING AROUND 15 KNOTS
BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN AROUND 3 FEET...INCREASING TO NEAR 6
FEET BY WEDNESDAY. NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  68  81  71 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          83  67  84  71 /   0  10  20  10
HARLINGEN            85  67  85  70 /   0  10  20  10
MCALLEN              87  67  87  71 /   0  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      86  65  87  69 /   0  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  70  77  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021131 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE RETURN AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
BKN CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION SETS
UP ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT
AROUND 3K FEET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRATUS LAYER DEVELOP AT
AROUND THE SAME HEIGHT RESULTING IN SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND OR AFTER
09Z SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES
REMAIN LOW WITH THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRIFT GRADUALLY
EASTWARD THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED
TODAY AND INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY USHERING IN A STEADY DOSE OF
GULF MOISTURE.

TODAY...ANOTHER OVERALL NICE DAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
RATHER WEAK. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THE SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
NOTICEABLE. DEW POINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO INCH
UPWARD BUT WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE DAYTIME MIXING
WILL MAINTAIN COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS FOR ONE LAST DAY. LITTLE CHANGE
OF THE AIRMASS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY TO RESULT IN
VERY SIMILAR MAXIMUMS AS FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD IS 2 TO 3
DEGREES SO THE RECENT BLEND SCHEME OF THE LAST FEW DAYS REMAINS
FORECASTERS CHOICE.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A VEERING OF
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
925MB WINDS INCREASE WITH DEW POINT AND TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.
THE BELOW NORMAL NIGHTS WILL BE THE THING OF THE PAST WITH GUIDANCE
PUSHING MINIMUMS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP EXPECTING MORE STRATUS THEN DENSE FOG WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS A BIT TO STRONG BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS BRIEFLY
DROPPING BELOW ONE MILE WHERE WINDS DROP BELOW 5 MPH.

SUNDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AND SKIES WILL SEE
MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN AS THE BIG THREE MODELS GFS/NAM/EC INDICATE
MEAN RH AOB 5000 FEET AROUND 85 PERCENT. THEY EVEN THROW IN SOME
LIGHT QPF AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER WITH ALL THREE INDICATING THE
LOW END POPS CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER. DID NOT MENTION
THUNDER WITH LIMITED FORCING  FROM THE SEA BREEZE AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO LIMITED BY MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...H5 RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS SHIFTS MIDLEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY...WHICH
PULLS PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO BRING DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING AND HOLDING IT IN THE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTINUING IN THE REGION...GOOD UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX IN THE REGION AND NUMEROUS SMALL VORTS SWEEPING THROUGH
DAILY...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FOR EACH DAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT ON ANY DAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WITH THE INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND INCREASES
IN THICKNESSES...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND THE
APPROACH OF MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY AND MODERATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO KEEP SEAS SLIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ONLY INCREASE AROUND ONE FOOT ON SUNDAY. OVERALL,
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FETCH SLOWLY INCREASES EACH
DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...REACHING AROUND 15 KNOTS
BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN AROUND 3 FEET...INCREASING TO NEAR 6
FEET BY WEDNESDAY. NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  68  81  71 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          83  67  84  71 /   0  10  20  10
HARLINGEN            85  67  85  70 /   0  10  20  10
MCALLEN              87  67  87  71 /   0  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      86  65  87  69 /   0  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  70  77  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/64



000
FXUS64 KBRO 021131 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE RETURN AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
BKN CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION SETS
UP ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT
AROUND 3K FEET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRATUS LAYER DEVELOP AT
AROUND THE SAME HEIGHT RESULTING IN SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND OR AFTER
09Z SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES
REMAIN LOW WITH THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRIFT GRADUALLY
EASTWARD THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED
TODAY AND INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY USHERING IN A STEADY DOSE OF
GULF MOISTURE.

TODAY...ANOTHER OVERALL NICE DAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
RATHER WEAK. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THE SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
NOTICEABLE. DEW POINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO INCH
UPWARD BUT WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE DAYTIME MIXING
WILL MAINTAIN COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS FOR ONE LAST DAY. LITTLE CHANGE
OF THE AIRMASS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY TO RESULT IN
VERY SIMILAR MAXIMUMS AS FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD IS 2 TO 3
DEGREES SO THE RECENT BLEND SCHEME OF THE LAST FEW DAYS REMAINS
FORECASTERS CHOICE.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A VEERING OF
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
925MB WINDS INCREASE WITH DEW POINT AND TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.
THE BELOW NORMAL NIGHTS WILL BE THE THING OF THE PAST WITH GUIDANCE
PUSHING MINIMUMS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP EXPECTING MORE STRATUS THEN DENSE FOG WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS A BIT TO STRONG BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS BRIEFLY
DROPPING BELOW ONE MILE WHERE WINDS DROP BELOW 5 MPH.

SUNDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AND SKIES WILL SEE
MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN AS THE BIG THREE MODELS GFS/NAM/EC INDICATE
MEAN RH AOB 5000 FEET AROUND 85 PERCENT. THEY EVEN THROW IN SOME
LIGHT QPF AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER WITH ALL THREE INDICATING THE
LOW END POPS CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER. DID NOT MENTION
THUNDER WITH LIMITED FORCING  FROM THE SEA BREEZE AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO LIMITED BY MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...H5 RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS SHIFTS MIDLEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY...WHICH
PULLS PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO BRING DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING AND HOLDING IT IN THE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTINUING IN THE REGION...GOOD UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX IN THE REGION AND NUMEROUS SMALL VORTS SWEEPING THROUGH
DAILY...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FOR EACH DAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT ON ANY DAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WITH THE INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND INCREASES
IN THICKNESSES...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND THE
APPROACH OF MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY AND MODERATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO KEEP SEAS SLIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ONLY INCREASE AROUND ONE FOOT ON SUNDAY. OVERALL,
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FETCH SLOWLY INCREASES EACH
DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...REACHING AROUND 15 KNOTS
BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN AROUND 3 FEET...INCREASING TO NEAR 6
FEET BY WEDNESDAY. NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  68  81  71 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          83  67  84  71 /   0  10  20  10
HARLINGEN            85  67  85  70 /   0  10  20  10
MCALLEN              87  67  87  71 /   0  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      86  65  87  69 /   0  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  70  77  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 021131 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE RETURN AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
BKN CEILINGS AROUND 5K FEET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION SETS
UP ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT
AROUND 3K FEET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STRATUS LAYER DEVELOP AT
AROUND THE SAME HEIGHT RESULTING IN SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND OR AFTER
09Z SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABILITIES
REMAIN LOW WITH THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRIFT GRADUALLY
EASTWARD THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED
TODAY AND INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY USHERING IN A STEADY DOSE OF
GULF MOISTURE.

TODAY...ANOTHER OVERALL NICE DAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
RATHER WEAK. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON THE SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
NOTICEABLE. DEW POINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO INCH
UPWARD BUT WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE DAYTIME MIXING
WILL MAINTAIN COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS FOR ONE LAST DAY. LITTLE CHANGE
OF THE AIRMASS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY TO RESULT IN
VERY SIMILAR MAXIMUMS AS FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD IS 2 TO 3
DEGREES SO THE RECENT BLEND SCHEME OF THE LAST FEW DAYS REMAINS
FORECASTERS CHOICE.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A VEERING OF
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
925MB WINDS INCREASE WITH DEW POINT AND TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.
THE BELOW NORMAL NIGHTS WILL BE THE THING OF THE PAST WITH GUIDANCE
PUSHING MINIMUMS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOME CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP EXPECTING MORE STRATUS THEN DENSE FOG WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS A BIT TO STRONG BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS BRIEFLY
DROPPING BELOW ONE MILE WHERE WINDS DROP BELOW 5 MPH.

SUNDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AND SKIES WILL SEE
MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN AS THE BIG THREE MODELS GFS/NAM/EC INDICATE
MEAN RH AOB 5000 FEET AROUND 85 PERCENT. THEY EVEN THROW IN SOME
LIGHT QPF AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THE RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER WITH ALL THREE INDICATING THE
LOW END POPS CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER. DID NOT MENTION
THUNDER WITH LIMITED FORCING  FROM THE SEA BREEZE AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO LIMITED BY MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...H5 RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS SHIFTS MIDLEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY...WHICH
PULLS PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO BRING DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...WITH PW VALUES REACHING 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING AND HOLDING IT IN THE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. WITH
THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTINUING IN THE REGION...GOOD UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX IN THE REGION AND NUMEROUS SMALL VORTS SWEEPING THROUGH
DAILY...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FOR EACH DAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT ON ANY DAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WITH THE INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND INCREASES
IN THICKNESSES...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND THE
APPROACH OF MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY AND MODERATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO KEEP SEAS SLIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON AND ONLY INCREASE AROUND ONE FOOT ON SUNDAY. OVERALL,
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FETCH SLOWLY INCREASES EACH
DAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...REACHING AROUND 15 KNOTS
BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN AROUND 3 FEET...INCREASING TO NEAR 6
FEET BY WEDNESDAY. NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  68  81  71 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          83  67  84  71 /   0  10  20  10
HARLINGEN            85  67  85  70 /   0  10  20  10
MCALLEN              87  67  87  71 /   0  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      86  65  87  69 /   0  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  70  77  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/64



000
FXUS64 KMAF 021127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue with increasing mid to high clouds.
South wind will become gusty by midday as pressure gradient tightens.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another nice day expected today under the influence of weak upper
ridging aloft. Expect sunny skies and afternoon high temperatures
in the mid 80s most places. Southeast winds will be a bit breezy
this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in
response to a surface trough strengthening lee of the Rockies.
Upper ridging will shift east overnight tonight while a Pacific
upper trough slowly approaches the SW ConUS, resulting in SW flow
aloft by Sunday afternoon. The dryline looks to sharpen from the
western Permian Basin south to the Big Bend region on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time so will
continue mention of at least isolated thunderstorms possible
near/along the dryline.

The main focus for this forecast package is the Monday through
Tuesday timeframe with the potential of severe weather and flooding
affecting portions of the CWA. The Pacific ua trough will enter the
SW ConUS overnight Sunday then moving east through the Desert SW
through the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, moderate SE winds at
the surface will continue pumping low level moisture into the
region. Model guidance has been consistent in showing PWATS just
above 1" Monday increasing to near 1.25" Monday night. The dryline
will be a little farther west on Monday, sharpening up near SE NM
south just east of the Davis Mtn region. Models indicate a weak
upper disturbance moving overhead in SW flow aloft, and with
sufficient heating and ample moisture, dryline thunderstorms are
possible during the late afternoon/evening hours Monday.
Convective activity looks to increase and persist overnight,
particularly across the northern half of the CWA, as greatest
upper forcing arrives and nocturnal LLJ sustains LL moisture.
Storms could be strong to severe, producing large hail and
damaging winds. In addition, given the potential amount of
available moisture, heavy rain could definitely result in a flash
flooding threat particularly overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning. Will continue to mention flash flooding threat in the HWO
but may need to consider issuing a Flash Flood Watch soon. Could
see dryline thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon, given the
atmosphere can recover from Monday night...

Wednesday, model solutions indicate dryline thunderstorms once again
despite the exiting ua trough, somewhat depleted moisture and no
significant upper forcing depicted. We could end up getting an upper
weakness come across in SW flow aloft so kept at least slight
chances mentioned for now across eastern zones. The dryline looks to
meander back and forth across eastern half of the CWA through the
end of the week and maybe even into the weekend with the chance for
thunderstorms continuing through Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 021127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue with increasing mid to high clouds.
South wind will become gusty by midday as pressure gradient tightens.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another nice day expected today under the influence of weak upper
ridging aloft. Expect sunny skies and afternoon high temperatures
in the mid 80s most places. Southeast winds will be a bit breezy
this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in
response to a surface trough strengthening lee of the Rockies.
Upper ridging will shift east overnight tonight while a Pacific
upper trough slowly approaches the SW ConUS, resulting in SW flow
aloft by Sunday afternoon. The dryline looks to sharpen from the
western Permian Basin south to the Big Bend region on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time so will
continue mention of at least isolated thunderstorms possible
near/along the dryline.

The main focus for this forecast package is the Monday through
Tuesday timeframe with the potential of severe weather and flooding
affecting portions of the CWA. The Pacific ua trough will enter the
SW ConUS overnight Sunday then moving east through the Desert SW
through the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, moderate SE winds at
the surface will continue pumping low level moisture into the
region. Model guidance has been consistent in showing PWATS just
above 1" Monday increasing to near 1.25" Monday night. The dryline
will be a little farther west on Monday, sharpening up near SE NM
south just east of the Davis Mtn region. Models indicate a weak
upper disturbance moving overhead in SW flow aloft, and with
sufficient heating and ample moisture, dryline thunderstorms are
possible during the late afternoon/evening hours Monday.
Convective activity looks to increase and persist overnight,
particularly across the northern half of the CWA, as greatest
upper forcing arrives and nocturnal LLJ sustains LL moisture.
Storms could be strong to severe, producing large hail and
damaging winds. In addition, given the potential amount of
available moisture, heavy rain could definitely result in a flash
flooding threat particularly overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning. Will continue to mention flash flooding threat in the HWO
but may need to consider issuing a Flash Flood Watch soon. Could
see dryline thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon, given the
atmosphere can recover from Monday night...

Wednesday, model solutions indicate dryline thunderstorms once again
despite the exiting ua trough, somewhat depleted moisture and no
significant upper forcing depicted. We could end up getting an upper
weakness come across in SW flow aloft so kept at least slight
chances mentioned for now across eastern zones. The dryline looks to
meander back and forth across eastern half of the CWA through the
end of the week and maybe even into the weekend with the chance for
thunderstorms continuing through Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 021127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue with increasing mid to high clouds.
South wind will become gusty by midday as pressure gradient tightens.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another nice day expected today under the influence of weak upper
ridging aloft. Expect sunny skies and afternoon high temperatures
in the mid 80s most places. Southeast winds will be a bit breezy
this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in
response to a surface trough strengthening lee of the Rockies.
Upper ridging will shift east overnight tonight while a Pacific
upper trough slowly approaches the SW ConUS, resulting in SW flow
aloft by Sunday afternoon. The dryline looks to sharpen from the
western Permian Basin south to the Big Bend region on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time so will
continue mention of at least isolated thunderstorms possible
near/along the dryline.

The main focus for this forecast package is the Monday through
Tuesday timeframe with the potential of severe weather and flooding
affecting portions of the CWA. The Pacific ua trough will enter the
SW ConUS overnight Sunday then moving east through the Desert SW
through the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, moderate SE winds at
the surface will continue pumping low level moisture into the
region. Model guidance has been consistent in showing PWATS just
above 1" Monday increasing to near 1.25" Monday night. The dryline
will be a little farther west on Monday, sharpening up near SE NM
south just east of the Davis Mtn region. Models indicate a weak
upper disturbance moving overhead in SW flow aloft, and with
sufficient heating and ample moisture, dryline thunderstorms are
possible during the late afternoon/evening hours Monday.
Convective activity looks to increase and persist overnight,
particularly across the northern half of the CWA, as greatest
upper forcing arrives and nocturnal LLJ sustains LL moisture.
Storms could be strong to severe, producing large hail and
damaging winds. In addition, given the potential amount of
available moisture, heavy rain could definitely result in a flash
flooding threat particularly overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning. Will continue to mention flash flooding threat in the HWO
but may need to consider issuing a Flash Flood Watch soon. Could
see dryline thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon, given the
atmosphere can recover from Monday night...

Wednesday, model solutions indicate dryline thunderstorms once again
despite the exiting ua trough, somewhat depleted moisture and no
significant upper forcing depicted. We could end up getting an upper
weakness come across in SW flow aloft so kept at least slight
chances mentioned for now across eastern zones. The dryline looks to
meander back and forth across eastern half of the CWA through the
end of the week and maybe even into the weekend with the chance for
thunderstorms continuing through Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 021125
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
625 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF CYCLE WITH PASSING
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY
SIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS AGAIN TODAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT AND KICKING OFF A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...HIGH-
BASED MOIST CONVECTION WILL FIRE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES COULD BE
GRAZED BY CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...THOUGH IT
STILL APPEARS POINTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST ARE AT GREATER
RISK. GIVEN THIS...AND THE DEEP AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE...WE HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN AROUND 10 PERCENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST ZONES TODAY/TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THOUGH A BOUT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD WILL GRADUALLY
FADE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF MID/HIGH CLOUD TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
RESULT IN A MODEST PRESSURE LOCALLY WHICH IN TURN WILL GENERATE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EVEN
WITH SOME CLOUD COVER OCCASIONALLY FILTERING THE SUN TODAY...HIGHS
SHOULD STILL PEAK A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. TONIGHT WILL BE MILD
TOO...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...
..WET FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...

THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BOTH BETWEEN DIFFERENT
MODELS AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...WHICH INCREASES OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL WET PATTERN TO AFFECT WEST TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD KICK OFF LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS SRN CALI/NRN BAJA. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE WILL
INTERSECT THE DRYLINE CLOSE TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND SHOULD
HELP INITIATE SOME T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL BE
RATHER HIGH-BASED...AND A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO THEY SHOULD NOT
POSE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT MORE THAN STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. IT IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST THE ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE
SUNDAY EVENING...THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO KILL OFF
THE STORMS JUST BEFORE THEY REACH THE I-27/US 87 CORRIDOR...BUT
THERE/S CERTAINLY A LITTLE LEEWAY THERE.

EVEN AS THAT INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO
FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT
SW. HEIGHT FALLS AND BACKING WINDS WILL DRAW THE DRYLINE ALL THE
WAY WEST TO THE NM MOUNTAINS...WHERE IT SHOULD REMAIN ANCHORED ALL
DAY MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAK CAPPING SHOULD
GIVE WAY RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY MONDAY...PERHAPS EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN NM AND WEST TEXAS. IT APPEARS THAT WESTERN AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK WILL BE FAVORED FOR INITIAL ACTIVITY DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH. IT ALSO APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND WE THINK THIS PERIOD
MAY BRING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACTIVITY AS WELL. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PINPOINT WHERE
A MORE BROAD HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP...BUT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE MAY HAVE HIGHER ODDS THAN AREAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST.

THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL THEN PASS OVER AND NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AGAIN...WE CONTINUE TO HAVE QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF TUESDAY/S WEATHER DUE TO WHAT
ACTUALLY TRANSPIRES MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE COOLER TEMPS AND CLOUDY
SKIES...IT MAY YET BE POSSIBLE TO REALIZE SOME SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY IN
ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. WE WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH-DRYLINE TO MAKE A MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE LINE AS WELL AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CI. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL THROUGH THE MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...MANY LOCATIONS MAY
RECEIVE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL WITH A STRONG
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

SOME SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY. BUT LESS CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO MORE HEATING...AND
WITH THE DRYLINE STILL IN THE AREA...LIKELY SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT...SOME DIURNAL T-STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN FACT...A STRONGER QPF SIGNAL HAS EMERGED FOR THURSDAY
AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK TO THE WEST AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AND THE FORECAST PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CONTINUING CHANCE OF DIURNAL T-STORM ACTIVITY...FOCUSED ON THE
DRYLINE...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  53  86  53 /  10  10  30  20
TULIA         83  53  84  57 /   0  10  10  30
PLAINVIEW     82  54  83  56 /   0  10  10  30
LEVELLAND     84  54  86  55 /   0  10  20  30
LUBBOCK       84  56  86  59 /   0  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   84  54  87  55 /   0   0  20  20
BROWNFIELD    85  55  86  58 /   0   0  20  20
CHILDRESS     85  57  86  61 /   0  10   0  10
SPUR          84  56  84  59 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     85  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23




000
FXUS64 KSJT 021123
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
623 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. Winds
will be from the south today around 10 knots, with gusts around 16
knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Expect another 24 hours of beautiful weather. Highs today mainly in
the mid 80s look likely. Winds from the south will be slightly
stronger than yesterday, mainly in the 10 to 15 mph range. Overnight
tonight, lows will be mainly in the mid 50s, and winds will be from
the southeast to south around 10 mph or less.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Dry conditions will persist on Sunday as the eastward moving upper
ridge finally exits the area. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s will
likely be the warmest we will see for the next seven days.

Not much has changed in the last 24 hours; an upper low will
still move over southern California Sunday night and our winds
aloft will back to the southwest. The southern California upper
low will open with the upper trough lifting northeast over the
Northern Plains by Thursday. Models continue to show a much
stronger upper low moving over the Pacific northwest on Tuesday
and then moving south down the Pacific coastline through Friday.
In the meantime, a series of upper disturbances in the southwest
flow aloft will interact with an oscillating dryline over West
Texas through the end of the week, with a continued chance of
thunderstorms accompanied by good associated rainfall amounts. Afternoon
highs will mostly be in the 70s Monday and Tuesday with slightly
warmer highs in the lower 80s through the remainder of the week.
Morning lows will remain in the 60s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  58  83  62  79 /   0   0   5  10  10
San Angelo  85  57  85  63  81 /   0   5   5  10  30
Junction  81  56  82  64  79 /   0   5   0  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 021118 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
618 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN LATER THIS MORNING. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AND THE UPPER
FLOW WILL SEND THEM THIS WAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE DHT
TAF SITE THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...THEN THEY WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

BROAD BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO RESULTED IN CONVECTION THAT HAS DRIFTED
SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS LAST EVENING. WITH
STRONGEST MEAN FLOW FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...BOTH ORGANIZATION AND
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND OFF THE RATON MESA. FURTHERMORE...FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS AS
EVIDENT BY REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS HAS LIMITED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WITH THIS CONVECTION. EARLY TONIGHT...ONLY A FEW LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES. ONLY A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OCCURRED AT CLAYTON
ASOS EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH NO OTHER OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
TOMORROW. THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE PROBABLY AT LEAST
AUGMENTED SOME BY LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM DIURNAL HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION. THESE SMALL WAVES SHOULD STILL BE COINCIDENT WITH SOME
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING THAT WOULD IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FORCING...CONTINUED
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...AND NOT MUCH OF AN UPWARD TREND IN MOISTURE IN THE
SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE
LIMITED.

WESTERLY MOMENTUM ALOFT FROM STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET HAS BEEN
EVIDENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL REACH BAJA BY
SUNDAY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MEANWHILE A MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW EVOLVES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RESPONSE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY ROBUST
MOISTURE ARRIVAL BY LATE MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO EVOLVE IN
SUCH A WAY THAT WOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST MERIDIONAL FLOW AND
PROBABLY MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT THAN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GENERATED IN
THE MODELS SEEMS TO CONTAMINATE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE MONDAY
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOWING SATURATED ADIABATIC PROFILES AND
MINIMAL INSTABILITY...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PERIODS/POCKETS OF
HIGHER CAPE AND CORRESPONDING MORE ROBUST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION. FOR THIS REASON FEEL COMFORTABLE CONTINUING TO MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO AS IT
MENTIONS BOTH THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH MORE OF A
FOCUS ON HEAVY RAIN IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. KEPT STORM TOTAL QPF
AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES BUT WITH PWAT VALUES PEAKING ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE EARLY TUESDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. LATER
FORECASTS MAY ADJUST UPWARD DEPENDING ON QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN
AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TO LIMIT QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN.

BEYOND TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS
EAST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
AT THE SAME TIME...PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AND BROADEN AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION SCENARIO WITH A DRYLINE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MIX EASTWARD LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER WEST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE TOWARD
SATURDAY AS MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17





000
FXUS64 KAMA 021118 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
618 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN LATER THIS MORNING. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AND THE UPPER
FLOW WILL SEND THEM THIS WAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE DHT
TAF SITE THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...THEN THEY WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

BROAD BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ELEVATED HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO RESULTED IN CONVECTION THAT HAS DRIFTED
SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS LAST EVENING. WITH
STRONGEST MEAN FLOW FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...BOTH ORGANIZATION AND
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND OFF THE RATON MESA. FURTHERMORE...FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS AS
EVIDENT BY REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS HAS LIMITED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WITH THIS CONVECTION. EARLY TONIGHT...ONLY A FEW LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES. ONLY A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OCCURRED AT CLAYTON
ASOS EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH NO OTHER OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EVIDENT IN SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
TOMORROW. THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE PROBABLY AT LEAST
AUGMENTED SOME BY LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM DIURNAL HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION. THESE SMALL WAVES SHOULD STILL BE COINCIDENT WITH SOME
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING THAT WOULD IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FORCING...CONTINUED
WEAK FLOW ALOFT...AND NOT MUCH OF AN UPWARD TREND IN MOISTURE IN THE
SHORT TERM...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE SHOULD AGAIN BE QUITE
LIMITED.

WESTERLY MOMENTUM ALOFT FROM STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET HAS BEEN
EVIDENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL REACH BAJA BY
SUNDAY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MEANWHILE A MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW EVOLVES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
RESPONSE OF SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST APPROACHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY ROBUST
MOISTURE ARRIVAL BY LATE MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO EVOLVE IN
SUCH A WAY THAT WOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST MERIDIONAL FLOW AND
PROBABLY MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT THAN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GENERATED IN
THE MODELS SEEMS TO CONTAMINATE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE MONDAY
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY SHOWING SATURATED ADIABATIC PROFILES AND
MINIMAL INSTABILITY...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE PERIODS/POCKETS OF
HIGHER CAPE AND CORRESPONDING MORE ROBUST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION. FOR THIS REASON FEEL COMFORTABLE CONTINUING TO MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO AS IT
MENTIONS BOTH THREATS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH MORE OF A
FOCUS ON HEAVY RAIN IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. KEPT STORM TOTAL QPF
AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES BUT WITH PWAT VALUES PEAKING ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE EARLY TUESDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. LATER
FORECASTS MAY ADJUST UPWARD DEPENDING ON QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN
AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TO LIMIT QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN.

BEYOND TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS
EAST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
AT THE SAME TIME...PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AND BROADEN AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST MORE OF A
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION SCENARIO WITH A DRYLINE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MIX EASTWARD LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER WEST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE TOWARD
SATURDAY AS MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE MAIN UPPER LOW. HAVE KEPT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 021047
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
447 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA SLOWLY FROM THE WEST.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPARSE AT FIRST...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
EACH DAY UNTIL PEAKING MONDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE MORE WIND THAN RAIN. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE
AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT GAVE EL PASO ITS FIRST 90 DEGREE MAX TEMP OF
THE YEAR WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE WEST COAST EDGES CLOSER