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000
FXUS64 KLUB 291714
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1214 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN NORTH WIND SPEEDS OF 22-26 KTS. LOWEST
WIND SPEEDS OCCURRING AT KCDS AND KLBB THUS FAR...BUT COMPUTER
MODELS HINT AT SPEEDS POSSIBLY INCREASING JUST A BIT AOA 25 KTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR BLDU CAUSED BY THE WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER
KLBB HAS DROPPED TO 9SM DUE TO BLDU. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A
BLDU MENTION FOR NOW BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. NEAR
SUNSET...A NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR /BELOW 12
KTS/ WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FEW VFR DECKS WILL THICKEN THROUGHOUT THIS
TAF CYCLE LEADING TO SCT- BKN DECKS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT MAINTAINS AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...BUT IT
WILL DELIVER A COLD FRONT TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. AS OF 07Z...THE COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND
IT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD ENTER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 14Z. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...PERHAPS NOT EXITING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH 30+ KT JET AT 850 MB WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN GUSTY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD OCCASIONAL FLIRT WITH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY
AND NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY PLANNED.

THE FRONT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING WITH IT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW THIN/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL THICKEN/LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S...WITH A FEW 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG TERM...
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NWWD BACK INTO WTX ON THE LLJ
MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IN THE NM HIGHLANDS
AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SUGGESTS IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE STATE
LINE...BUT IT MAY BE OVER-ZEALOUS WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NW MX INTO SW TX ON
TUESDAY...TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE NAM AND ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THE NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ADJUST TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER AT THIS
POINT SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT
IN THE NW TO 30 PERCENT IN THE SE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE FOR NOW. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED BY ANY MOIST CONVECTION. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE 80S AND THE MORE
ROBUST SURFACE DEWPOINTS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CAPES IN THE RANGE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER T-STORM CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR.

AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES...WE EXPECT A DRY...BREEZY AND WARM PERIOD
AS SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS DOWNSTREAM
OF A UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EXPOUNDED UPON BELOW. AS
IT LOOKS NOW...WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THU AND FRIDAY...AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERCEPTING RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NM
AND WTX...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
TRANSITION AND THUS IS WARMER AND DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT...IT WILL
CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

A PERIOD OF DEEP...DRY...WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BOTH
AFTERNOONS...AND POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT PORTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO
DECISIVELY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  73  45  80 /   0   0  10  20
TULIA         39  73  48  80 /   0   0   0  30
PLAINVIEW     40  73  49  81 /   0   0   0  30
LEVELLAND     43  73  50  81 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       42  74  52  82 /   0   0   0  30
DENVER CITY   43  73  51  79 /   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    44  73  52  80 /   0   0  10  30
CHILDRESS     45  76  54  84 /   0   0   0  30
SPUR          46  74  55  82 /   0   0   0  30
ASPERMONT     49  76  58  83 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29



000
FXUS64 KLUB 291714
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1214 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN NORTH WIND SPEEDS OF 22-26 KTS. LOWEST
WIND SPEEDS OCCURRING AT KCDS AND KLBB THUS FAR...BUT COMPUTER
MODELS HINT AT SPEEDS POSSIBLY INCREASING JUST A BIT AOA 25 KTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR BLDU CAUSED BY THE WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER
KLBB HAS DROPPED TO 9SM DUE TO BLDU. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A
BLDU MENTION FOR NOW BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. NEAR
SUNSET...A NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR /BELOW 12
KTS/ WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FEW VFR DECKS WILL THICKEN THROUGHOUT THIS
TAF CYCLE LEADING TO SCT- BKN DECKS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT MAINTAINS AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...BUT IT
WILL DELIVER A COLD FRONT TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. AS OF 07Z...THE COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND
IT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD ENTER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 14Z. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...PERHAPS NOT EXITING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH 30+ KT JET AT 850 MB WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN GUSTY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD OCCASIONAL FLIRT WITH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY
AND NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY PLANNED.

THE FRONT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING WITH IT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW THIN/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL THICKEN/LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S...WITH A FEW 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG TERM...
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NWWD BACK INTO WTX ON THE LLJ
MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IN THE NM HIGHLANDS
AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SUGGESTS IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE STATE
LINE...BUT IT MAY BE OVER-ZEALOUS WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NW MX INTO SW TX ON
TUESDAY...TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE NAM AND ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THE NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ADJUST TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER AT THIS
POINT SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT
IN THE NW TO 30 PERCENT IN THE SE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE FOR NOW. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED BY ANY MOIST CONVECTION. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE 80S AND THE MORE
ROBUST SURFACE DEWPOINTS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CAPES IN THE RANGE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER T-STORM CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR.

AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES...WE EXPECT A DRY...BREEZY AND WARM PERIOD
AS SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS DOWNSTREAM
OF A UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EXPOUNDED UPON BELOW. AS
IT LOOKS NOW...WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THU AND FRIDAY...AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERCEPTING RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NM
AND WTX...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
TRANSITION AND THUS IS WARMER AND DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT...IT WILL
CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

A PERIOD OF DEEP...DRY...WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BOTH
AFTERNOONS...AND POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT PORTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO
DECISIVELY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  73  45  80 /   0   0  10  20
TULIA         39  73  48  80 /   0   0   0  30
PLAINVIEW     40  73  49  81 /   0   0   0  30
LEVELLAND     43  73  50  81 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       42  74  52  82 /   0   0   0  30
DENVER CITY   43  73  51  79 /   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    44  73  52  80 /   0   0  10  30
CHILDRESS     45  76  54  84 /   0   0   0  30
SPUR          46  74  55  82 /   0   0   0  30
ASPERMONT     49  76  58  83 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29



000
FXUS64 KLUB 291714
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1214 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN NORTH WIND SPEEDS OF 22-26 KTS. LOWEST
WIND SPEEDS OCCURRING AT KCDS AND KLBB THUS FAR...BUT COMPUTER
MODELS HINT AT SPEEDS POSSIBLY INCREASING JUST A BIT AOA 25 KTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR BLDU CAUSED BY THE WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER
KLBB HAS DROPPED TO 9SM DUE TO BLDU. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A
BLDU MENTION FOR NOW BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. NEAR
SUNSET...A NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR /BELOW 12
KTS/ WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FEW VFR DECKS WILL THICKEN THROUGHOUT THIS
TAF CYCLE LEADING TO SCT- BKN DECKS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT MAINTAINS AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...BUT IT
WILL DELIVER A COLD FRONT TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. AS OF 07Z...THE COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND
IT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD ENTER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 14Z. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...PERHAPS NOT EXITING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH 30+ KT JET AT 850 MB WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN GUSTY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD OCCASIONAL FLIRT WITH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY
AND NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY PLANNED.

THE FRONT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING WITH IT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW THIN/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL THICKEN/LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S...WITH A FEW 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG TERM...
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NWWD BACK INTO WTX ON THE LLJ
MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IN THE NM HIGHLANDS
AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SUGGESTS IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE STATE
LINE...BUT IT MAY BE OVER-ZEALOUS WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NW MX INTO SW TX ON
TUESDAY...TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE NAM AND ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THE NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ADJUST TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER AT THIS
POINT SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT
IN THE NW TO 30 PERCENT IN THE SE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE FOR NOW. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED BY ANY MOIST CONVECTION. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE 80S AND THE MORE
ROBUST SURFACE DEWPOINTS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CAPES IN THE RANGE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER T-STORM CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR.

AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES...WE EXPECT A DRY...BREEZY AND WARM PERIOD
AS SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS DOWNSTREAM
OF A UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EXPOUNDED UPON BELOW. AS
IT LOOKS NOW...WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THU AND FRIDAY...AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERCEPTING RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NM
AND WTX...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
TRANSITION AND THUS IS WARMER AND DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT...IT WILL
CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

A PERIOD OF DEEP...DRY...WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BOTH
AFTERNOONS...AND POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT PORTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO
DECISIVELY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  73  45  80 /   0   0  10  20
TULIA         39  73  48  80 /   0   0   0  30
PLAINVIEW     40  73  49  81 /   0   0   0  30
LEVELLAND     43  73  50  81 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       42  74  52  82 /   0   0   0  30
DENVER CITY   43  73  51  79 /   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    44  73  52  80 /   0   0  10  30
CHILDRESS     45  76  54  84 /   0   0   0  30
SPUR          46  74  55  82 /   0   0   0  30
ASPERMONT     49  76  58  83 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29



000
FXUS64 KLUB 291714
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1214 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN NORTH WIND SPEEDS OF 22-26 KTS. LOWEST
WIND SPEEDS OCCURRING AT KCDS AND KLBB THUS FAR...BUT COMPUTER
MODELS HINT AT SPEEDS POSSIBLY INCREASING JUST A BIT AOA 25 KTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR BLDU CAUSED BY THE WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER
KLBB HAS DROPPED TO 9SM DUE TO BLDU. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A
BLDU MENTION FOR NOW BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. NEAR
SUNSET...A NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR /BELOW 12
KTS/ WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. FEW VFR DECKS WILL THICKEN THROUGHOUT THIS
TAF CYCLE LEADING TO SCT- BKN DECKS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT MAINTAINS AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...BUT IT
WILL DELIVER A COLD FRONT TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. AS OF 07Z...THE COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND
IT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD ENTER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 14Z. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...PERHAPS NOT EXITING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH 30+ KT JET AT 850 MB WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN GUSTY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD OCCASIONAL FLIRT WITH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY
AND NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY PLANNED.

THE FRONT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING WITH IT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW THIN/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL THICKEN/LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S...WITH A FEW 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG TERM...
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NWWD BACK INTO WTX ON THE LLJ
MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IN THE NM HIGHLANDS
AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SUGGESTS IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE STATE
LINE...BUT IT MAY BE OVER-ZEALOUS WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NW MX INTO SW TX ON
TUESDAY...TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE NAM AND ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THE NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ADJUST TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER AT THIS
POINT SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT
IN THE NW TO 30 PERCENT IN THE SE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE FOR NOW. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED BY ANY MOIST CONVECTION. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE 80S AND THE MORE
ROBUST SURFACE DEWPOINTS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CAPES IN THE RANGE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER T-STORM CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR.

AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES...WE EXPECT A DRY...BREEZY AND WARM PERIOD
AS SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS DOWNSTREAM
OF A UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EXPOUNDED UPON BELOW. AS
IT LOOKS NOW...WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THU AND FRIDAY...AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERCEPTING RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NM
AND WTX...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
TRANSITION AND THUS IS WARMER AND DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT...IT WILL
CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

A PERIOD OF DEEP...DRY...WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BOTH
AFTERNOONS...AND POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT PORTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO
DECISIVELY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  73  45  80 /   0   0  10  20
TULIA         39  73  48  80 /   0   0   0  30
PLAINVIEW     40  73  49  81 /   0   0   0  30
LEVELLAND     43  73  50  81 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       42  74  52  82 /   0   0   0  30
DENVER CITY   43  73  51  79 /   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    44  73  52  80 /   0   0  10  30
CHILDRESS     45  76  54  84 /   0   0   0  30
SPUR          46  74  55  82 /   0   0   0  30
ASPERMONT     49  76  58  83 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KAMA 291709
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1209 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...STRONG NORTH WINDS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST OVER 30 KTS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE BEGINNING
TO DISSIPATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS MID TO
LATE MONDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS.

KB/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NOW
AND ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
AFTER A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES TODAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES
MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MIX EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLES.

CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A FEW OR SOME STORMS MAY POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE
WEST BY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF EACH
COLD FRONT. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AFTER THE REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER
AIR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BY
15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...EVEN THOUGH THE DRIER AIR TRACKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT THE 3-HOUR
TEMPORAL CRITERIA TO BE MET BEFORE THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS FALL BELOW
20 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
AGAIN.

THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OR SO. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY OF AROUND 18 TO 26 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 291709
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1209 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...STRONG NORTH WINDS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST OVER 30 KTS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE BEGINNING
TO DISSIPATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL STEADILY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS MID TO
LATE MONDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS.

KB/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NOW
AND ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
AFTER A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES TODAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES
MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MIX EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLES.

CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A FEW OR SOME STORMS MAY POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE
WEST BY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF EACH
COLD FRONT. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AFTER THE REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER
AIR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BY
15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...EVEN THOUGH THE DRIER AIR TRACKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT THE 3-HOUR
TEMPORAL CRITERIA TO BE MET BEFORE THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS FALL BELOW
20 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
AGAIN.

THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OR SO. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY OF AROUND 18 TO 26 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/05




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 291636
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1136 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
GETTING TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW THINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...CROSSWINDS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING IS HIDING THE TRICKINESS OF
THE FORECAST TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS ALREADY PICKING ALREADY THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPLE
GUSTING TO 28 MPH AT 11 AM. SEVERAL OTHER OBSERVATION SITES
SHOWING INCREASED MIXING...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 MPH AS WELL.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE BETWEEN
170 AND 200 DEGREES...WHICH COULD CREATE A FEW CROSSWIND ISSUES
FOR THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE.
12UTC SOUNDING AT FWD SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850...AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE NICELY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER OR
NOT ANY AIRPORT SITES WILL BE IMPACTED. FOR THE UPCOMING
CYCLE...WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION FOR THUNDER...BUT ADDITIONAL
UPDATES TO THAT FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE.

FOX

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY
THAT WOULD FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR
SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/58



000
FXUS64 KFWD 291636
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1136 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
GETTING TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW THINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...CROSSWINDS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING IS HIDING THE TRICKINESS OF
THE FORECAST TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS ALREADY PICKING ALREADY THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPLE
GUSTING TO 28 MPH AT 11 AM. SEVERAL OTHER OBSERVATION SITES
SHOWING INCREASED MIXING...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 MPH AS WELL.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
WINDS DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE BETWEEN
170 AND 200 DEGREES...WHICH COULD CREATE A FEW CROSSWIND ISSUES
FOR THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE.
12UTC SOUNDING AT FWD SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850...AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE NICELY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER OR
NOT ANY AIRPORT SITES WILL BE IMPACTED. FOR THE UPCOMING
CYCLE...WILL LEAVE OUT THE MENTION FOR THUNDER...BUT ADDITIONAL
UPDATES TO THAT FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE.

FOX

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY
THAT WOULD FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR
SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/58



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 291602
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1102 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TWEAKED SKY COVER A BIT AS LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT ERODING QUITE AS
QUICKLY AS FORECAST. DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE
WITH HEATING AND SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS. 12Z CRP SOUNDING SUPPORTS
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S SO TWEAKED TEMPS OVER THE W-SW ZONES FOR
THE AFTN. NEW ZONES OUT BY 1115 AM. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
A COUPLE OF AVIATION HAZARDS WILL START OUT THE MORNING...FIRST
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT THE INLAND SITES THROUGH ABOUT
15Z OR SO. ALSO...A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION HAS LED TO A STRATUS DECK
TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA SITES. AS
THE DECK SCATTERS OUT AROUND OR AFTER 15Z...MIXING WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE WINDS GUSTING FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE INLAND
SITES.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP -- BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
AND THERE WILL BE A REPEAT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPING.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. WILL SEE
SOME OTHER PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARD
MORNING AND A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AS WELL WHERE DW PTS ARE
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO THE ONGOING FCST CONCERNING
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND PRECIP CHCS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HAVE
TRENDED THE PRECIP FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN WHICH DEPICTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE W/SW AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...THEN SHIFTING
E/NE ON WED EVE. BELIEVE MOISTURE LEVELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON WED ACROSS SE TX.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF PRECIP NEAR AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS SE TX AND SUPPORT A CHC
OF RAIN THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND. 33

MARINE...
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF FREEPORT WAS HELPING TO
GENERATE CAUTION CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODEL DATA
DIMINISHED THE WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE
WINDS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      84  62  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  81  63  81 /   0  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  66  76  66  76 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KCRP 291359 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
859 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...INCREASED WINDS A BIT MORE FOR TODAY. MODELS ARE
COMING IN LOW WITH RESPECT TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW...EVEN WITH
THE LLJ FROM THIS MORNING. THE 12Z KCRP SOUNDING RECORDED 43KT AT
1K FT. SHOULD SEE WINDS PICK UP A BIT MORE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING...WITH WINDS PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH THE THERMALLY INDUCED GRADIENT
SHOULD OFFER STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR KLEBERG...NUECES...AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE
NORTHERN BAYS AND THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS IN ADDITION TO
THE SOUTHERN BAYS. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD MAINLY
AFFECT AREAS FROM ROCKPORT AND SOUTHWARD. THE SCA IS IN EFFECT
FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT
     ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBRO 291321
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
821 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WINDS OF 40 KNOTS
AT 950 MB AND IN THE BRO VWP SHOWING 45 KNOTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. ONLY ADDED SCA FOR WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE
UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS AND NO
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291321
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
821 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WINDS OF 40 KNOTS
AT 950 MB AND IN THE BRO VWP SHOWING 45 KNOTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. ONLY ADDED SCA FOR WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE
UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS AND NO
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59



000
FXUS64 KBRO 291321
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
821 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WINDS OF 40 KNOTS
AT 950 MB AND IN THE BRO VWP SHOWING 45 KNOTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. ONLY ADDED SCA FOR WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE
UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS AND NO
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59



000
FXUS64 KBRO 291321
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
821 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG WINDS OF 40 KNOTS
AT 950 MB AND IN THE BRO VWP SHOWING 45 KNOTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. ONLY ADDED SCA FOR WINDS FOR THE NEAR SHORE
UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS AND NO
CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291204 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  68  85  67 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  87  69 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  69  78  69 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58



000
FXUS64 KBRO 291204 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  68  85  67 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  87  69 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  69  78  69 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 291204 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
704 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV
AIRPORTS LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 45 KNOTS
EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS
IN THE EARLY MORNING PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. BOTH
THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HINT AT A RETURN OF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLD DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  68  85  67 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  87  69 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  69  78  69 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58



000
FXUS64 KFWD 291202
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND THEN THE ONSET OF MVFR
CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED FROM AROUND 10 KTS
TO 15 TO 20 KTS...GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 KTS JUST BEFORE NOON. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AROUND 00Z WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR
THE DFW AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT FROM 00 TO 03Z THIS EVENING. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY CAUSE PROBLEMS IF A
STORM DEVELOPED OR MOVED NEAR ANY AIRPORT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE SO
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE DFW AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE AND AMEND THE TAFS IF IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE DFW AREA THIS EVENING.

WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT ALL DFW
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SPREAD GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
OVER NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
AROUND 3000 FT AGL BY NOON ON MONDAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY
THAT WOULD FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR
SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /



000
FXUS64 KFWD 291202
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND THEN THE ONSET OF MVFR
CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED FROM AROUND 10 KTS
TO 15 TO 20 KTS...GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 KTS JUST BEFORE NOON. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AROUND 00Z WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR
THE DFW AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT FROM 00 TO 03Z THIS EVENING. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY CAUSE PROBLEMS IF A
STORM DEVELOPED OR MOVED NEAR ANY AIRPORT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE SO
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE DFW AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE AND AMEND THE TAFS IF IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE DFW AREA THIS EVENING.

WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT ALL DFW
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SPREAD GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
OVER NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
AROUND 3000 FT AGL BY NOON ON MONDAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY
THAT WOULD FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR
SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KFWD 291202
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND THEN THE ONSET OF MVFR
CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED FROM AROUND 10 KTS
TO 15 TO 20 KTS...GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 KTS JUST BEFORE NOON. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AROUND 00Z WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR
THE DFW AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT FROM 00 TO 03Z THIS EVENING. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY CAUSE PROBLEMS IF A
STORM DEVELOPED OR MOVED NEAR ANY AIRPORT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE SO
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE DFW AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE AND AMEND THE TAFS IF IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE DFW AREA THIS EVENING.

WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT ALL DFW
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SPREAD GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
OVER NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
AROUND 3000 FT AGL BY NOON ON MONDAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY
THAT WOULD FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR
SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KFWD 291202
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND THEN THE ONSET OF MVFR
CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED FROM AROUND 10 KTS
TO 15 TO 20 KTS...GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 KTS JUST BEFORE NOON. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AROUND 00Z WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR
THE DFW AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT FROM 00 TO 03Z THIS EVENING. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY CAUSE PROBLEMS IF A
STORM DEVELOPED OR MOVED NEAR ANY AIRPORT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE SO
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE DFW AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE AND AMEND THE TAFS IF IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE DFW AREA THIS EVENING.

WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT ALL DFW
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SPREAD GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
OVER NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
AROUND 3000 FT AGL BY NOON ON MONDAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY
THAT WOULD FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR
SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KFWD 291202
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND THEN THE ONSET OF MVFR
CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED FROM AROUND 10 KTS
TO 15 TO 20 KTS...GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 KTS JUST BEFORE NOON. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AROUND 00Z WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR
THE DFW AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT FROM 00 TO 03Z THIS EVENING. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY CAUSE PROBLEMS IF A
STORM DEVELOPED OR MOVED NEAR ANY AIRPORT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE SO
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE DFW AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE AND AMEND THE TAFS IF IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE DFW AREA THIS EVENING.

WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT ALL DFW
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SPREAD GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
OVER NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
AROUND 3000 FT AGL BY NOON ON MONDAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY
THAT WOULD FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR
SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KFWD 291202
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND THEN THE ONSET OF MVFR
CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED FROM AROUND 10 KTS
TO 15 TO 20 KTS...GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 KTS JUST BEFORE NOON. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AROUND 00Z WHEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR
THE DFW AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT FROM 00 TO 03Z THIS EVENING. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY CAUSE PROBLEMS IF A
STORM DEVELOPED OR MOVED NEAR ANY AIRPORT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE SO
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE DFW AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE AND AMEND THE TAFS IF IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THE DFW AREA THIS EVENING.

WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD
BACK AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT ALL DFW
AREA AIRPORTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL SPREAD GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS
OVER NORTH TEXAS BEFORE SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
AROUND 3000 FT AGL BY NOON ON MONDAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY
THAT WOULD FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR
SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KAMA 291150
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
650 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON WINDS. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LLWS FIRST THING THIS AM...BUT
LOCAL VAD WIND PROFILES...SODAR...AND 12Z KAMA SOUNDING NOT
INDICATING WINDS BELOW 020 AS STRONG AS MODEL FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND BEGIN
GUSTING IN THE 25 TO 35KT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW 40KT
AND OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN AWW FOR KAMA AT THIS TIME.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NOW
AND ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
AFTER A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES TODAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES
MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MIX EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLES.

CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A FEW OR SOME STORMS MAY POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE
WEST BY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF EACH
COLD FRONT. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AFTER THE REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER
AIR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BY
15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...EVEN THOUGH THE DRIER AIR TRACKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT THE 3-HOUR
TEMPORAL CRITERIA TO BE MET BEFORE THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS FALL BELOW
20 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
AGAIN.

THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OR SO. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY OF AROUND 18 TO 26 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 291150
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
650 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON WINDS. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LLWS FIRST THING THIS AM...BUT
LOCAL VAD WIND PROFILES...SODAR...AND 12Z KAMA SOUNDING NOT
INDICATING WINDS BELOW 020 AS STRONG AS MODEL FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND BEGIN
GUSTING IN THE 25 TO 35KT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW 40KT
AND OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN AWW FOR KAMA AT THIS TIME.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NOW
AND ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
AFTER A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES TODAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES
MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MIX EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLES.

CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A FEW OR SOME STORMS MAY POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE
WEST BY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF EACH
COLD FRONT. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AFTER THE REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER
AIR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BY
15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...EVEN THOUGH THE DRIER AIR TRACKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT THE 3-HOUR
TEMPORAL CRITERIA TO BE MET BEFORE THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS FALL BELOW
20 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
AGAIN.

THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OR SO. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY OF AROUND 18 TO 26 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 291150
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
650 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON WINDS. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LLWS FIRST THING THIS AM...BUT
LOCAL VAD WIND PROFILES...SODAR...AND 12Z KAMA SOUNDING NOT
INDICATING WINDS BELOW 020 AS STRONG AS MODEL FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND BEGIN
GUSTING IN THE 25 TO 35KT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW 40KT
AND OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN AWW FOR KAMA AT THIS TIME.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NOW
AND ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
AFTER A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES TODAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES
MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MIX EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLES.

CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A FEW OR SOME STORMS MAY POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE
WEST BY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF EACH
COLD FRONT. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AFTER THE REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER
AIR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BY
15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...EVEN THOUGH THE DRIER AIR TRACKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT THE 3-HOUR
TEMPORAL CRITERIA TO BE MET BEFORE THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS FALL BELOW
20 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
AGAIN.

THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OR SO. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY OF AROUND 18 TO 26 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 291150
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
650 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON WINDS. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF LLWS FIRST THING THIS AM...BUT
LOCAL VAD WIND PROFILES...SODAR...AND 12Z KAMA SOUNDING NOT
INDICATING WINDS BELOW 020 AS STRONG AS MODEL FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND BEGIN
GUSTING IN THE 25 TO 35KT RANGE LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW 40KT
AND OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN AWW FOR KAMA AT THIS TIME.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NOW
AND ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
AFTER A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES TODAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES
MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MIX EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLES.

CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A FEW OR SOME STORMS MAY POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE
WEST BY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF EACH
COLD FRONT. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AFTER THE REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER
AIR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BY
15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...EVEN THOUGH THE DRIER AIR TRACKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT THE 3-HOUR
TEMPORAL CRITERIA TO BE MET BEFORE THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS FALL BELOW
20 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
AGAIN.

THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OR SO. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY OF AROUND 18 TO 26 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/11






000
FXUS64 KLUB 291140
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF CYCLE REVOLVES AROUND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS THAT WILL VISIT THE TERMINALS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHERLY AND
BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 20-25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND SUNSET. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE STRONG
WINDS COULD LOFT ENOUGH BLOWING DUST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. ASIDE FROM THE RISK OF BLDU...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
BY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT MAINTAINS AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...BUT IT
WILL DELIVER A COLD FRONT TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. AS OF 07Z...THE COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND
IT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD ENTER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 14Z. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...PERHAPS NOT EXITING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH 30+ KT JET AT 850 MB WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN GUSTY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD OCCASIONAL FLIRT WITH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY
AND NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY PLANNED.

THE FRONT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING WITH IT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW THIN/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL THICKEN/LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S...WITH A FEW 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG TERM...
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NWWD BACK INTO WTX ON THE LLJ
MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IN THE NM HIGHLANDS
AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SUGGESTS IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE STATE
LINE...BUT IT MAY BE OVER-ZEALOUS WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NW MX INTO SW TX ON
TUESDAY...TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE NAM AND ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THE NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ADJUST TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER AT THIS
POINT SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT
IN THE NW TO 30 PERCENT IN THE SE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE FOR NOW. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED BY ANY MOIST CONVECTION. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE 80S AND THE MORE
ROBUST SURFACE DEWPOINTS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CAPES IN THE RANGE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER T-STORM CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR.

AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES...WE EXPECT A DRY...BREEZY AND WARM PERIOD
AS SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS DOWNSTREAM
OF A UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EXPOUNDED UPON BELOW. AS
IT LOOKS NOW...WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THU AND FRIDAY...AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERCEPTING RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NM
AND WTX...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
TRANSITION AND THUS IS WARMER AND DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT...IT WILL
CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

A PERIOD OF DEEP...DRY...WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BOTH
AFTERNOONS...AND POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT PORTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO
DECISIVELY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  38  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         74  39  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  40  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     80  43  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       80  42  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  43  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    83  44  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     82  45  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          84  46  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  49  76  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23



000
FXUS64 KLUB 291140
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF CYCLE REVOLVES AROUND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS THAT WILL VISIT THE TERMINALS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHERLY AND
BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 20-25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND SUNSET. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE STRONG
WINDS COULD LOFT ENOUGH BLOWING DUST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. ASIDE FROM THE RISK OF BLDU...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
BY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT MAINTAINS AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...BUT IT
WILL DELIVER A COLD FRONT TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. AS OF 07Z...THE COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND
IT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD ENTER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 14Z. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...PERHAPS NOT EXITING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH 30+ KT JET AT 850 MB WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN GUSTY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD OCCASIONAL FLIRT WITH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY
AND NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY PLANNED.

THE FRONT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING WITH IT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW THIN/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL THICKEN/LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S...WITH A FEW 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG TERM...
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NWWD BACK INTO WTX ON THE LLJ
MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IN THE NM HIGHLANDS
AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SUGGESTS IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE STATE
LINE...BUT IT MAY BE OVER-ZEALOUS WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NW MX INTO SW TX ON
TUESDAY...TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE NAM AND ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THE NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ADJUST TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER AT THIS
POINT SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT
IN THE NW TO 30 PERCENT IN THE SE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE FOR NOW. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED BY ANY MOIST CONVECTION. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE 80S AND THE MORE
ROBUST SURFACE DEWPOINTS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CAPES IN THE RANGE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER T-STORM CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR.

AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES...WE EXPECT A DRY...BREEZY AND WARM PERIOD
AS SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS DOWNSTREAM
OF A UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EXPOUNDED UPON BELOW. AS
IT LOOKS NOW...WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THU AND FRIDAY...AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERCEPTING RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NM
AND WTX...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
TRANSITION AND THUS IS WARMER AND DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT...IT WILL
CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

A PERIOD OF DEEP...DRY...WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BOTH
AFTERNOONS...AND POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT PORTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO
DECISIVELY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  38  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         74  39  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  40  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     80  43  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       80  42  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  43  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    83  44  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     82  45  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          84  46  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  49  76  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23




000
FXUS64 KLUB 291140
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF CYCLE REVOLVES AROUND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS THAT WILL VISIT THE TERMINALS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHERLY AND
BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 20-25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND SUNSET. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE STRONG
WINDS COULD LOFT ENOUGH BLOWING DUST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. ASIDE FROM THE RISK OF BLDU...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
BY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT MAINTAINS AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...BUT IT
WILL DELIVER A COLD FRONT TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. AS OF 07Z...THE COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND
IT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD ENTER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 14Z. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...PERHAPS NOT EXITING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH 30+ KT JET AT 850 MB WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN GUSTY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD OCCASIONAL FLIRT WITH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY
AND NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY PLANNED.

THE FRONT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING WITH IT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW THIN/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL THICKEN/LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S...WITH A FEW 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG TERM...
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NWWD BACK INTO WTX ON THE LLJ
MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IN THE NM HIGHLANDS
AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SUGGESTS IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE STATE
LINE...BUT IT MAY BE OVER-ZEALOUS WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NW MX INTO SW TX ON
TUESDAY...TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE NAM AND ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THE NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ADJUST TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER AT THIS
POINT SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT
IN THE NW TO 30 PERCENT IN THE SE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE FOR NOW. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED BY ANY MOIST CONVECTION. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE 80S AND THE MORE
ROBUST SURFACE DEWPOINTS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CAPES IN THE RANGE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER T-STORM CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR.

AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES...WE EXPECT A DRY...BREEZY AND WARM PERIOD
AS SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS DOWNSTREAM
OF A UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EXPOUNDED UPON BELOW. AS
IT LOOKS NOW...WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THU AND FRIDAY...AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERCEPTING RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NM
AND WTX...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
TRANSITION AND THUS IS WARMER AND DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT...IT WILL
CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

A PERIOD OF DEEP...DRY...WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BOTH
AFTERNOONS...AND POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT PORTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO
DECISIVELY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  38  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         74  39  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  40  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     80  43  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       80  42  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  43  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    83  44  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     82  45  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          84  46  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  49  76  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23



000
FXUS64 KLUB 291140
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF CYCLE REVOLVES AROUND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS THAT WILL VISIT THE TERMINALS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHERLY AND
BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 20-25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND SUNSET. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE STRONG
WINDS COULD LOFT ENOUGH BLOWING DUST TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. ASIDE FROM THE RISK OF BLDU...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
BY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT MAINTAINS AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...BUT IT
WILL DELIVER A COLD FRONT TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. AS OF 07Z...THE COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND
IT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD ENTER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 14Z. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...PERHAPS NOT EXITING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH 30+ KT JET AT 850 MB WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN GUSTY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD OCCASIONAL FLIRT WITH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY
AND NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY PLANNED.

THE FRONT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING WITH IT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW THIN/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL THICKEN/LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S...WITH A FEW 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST ZONES.

LONG TERM...
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NWWD BACK INTO WTX ON THE LLJ
MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IN THE NM HIGHLANDS
AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SUGGESTS IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE STATE
LINE...BUT IT MAY BE OVER-ZEALOUS WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NW MX INTO SW TX ON
TUESDAY...TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE NAM AND ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THE NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ADJUST TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER AT THIS
POINT SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT
IN THE NW TO 30 PERCENT IN THE SE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE FOR NOW. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED BY ANY MOIST CONVECTION. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE 80S AND THE MORE
ROBUST SURFACE DEWPOINTS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CAPES IN THE RANGE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER T-STORM CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR.

AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES...WE EXPECT A DRY...BREEZY AND WARM PERIOD
AS SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS DOWNSTREAM
OF A UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EXPOUNDED UPON BELOW. AS
IT LOOKS NOW...WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THU AND FRIDAY...AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERCEPTING RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NM
AND WTX...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
TRANSITION AND THUS IS WARMER AND DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT...IT WILL
CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

A PERIOD OF DEEP...DRY...WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BOTH
AFTERNOONS...AND POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT PORTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO
DECISIVELY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  38  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         74  39  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  40  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     80  43  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       80  42  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  43  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    83  44  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     82  45  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          84  46  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  49  76  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 291132 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
LOW CLOUDS ARE HAVING A BIT OF DIFFICULTY ON FORMING AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 4 TO 6 DEGREES APART FROM THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES. THEY MAY FORM FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TO OUR EAST
AND SOUTH BUT AWAY FROM THE AREA SITES. WILL GET RID OFF THE
TEMPO GROUPS EARLIER ADDED FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR KSAT AND KSFF.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR BY 06Z MONDAY AND IFR CIGS/VBSYS AROUND 09Z
MONDAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS REMAINS INTACT AND WE EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS NEAR THE
ESCARPMENT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO IN STORE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
NORTH OF THE REGION. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THIS FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN INTACT ON
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE WEAKER COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING OF HIGHS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WE/LL START MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY... RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
COULD AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL
AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE/LL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  61  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  61  78  61  78 /   0  -   20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  79  61  80 /   0  10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  59  79  61  78 /   0  -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  62  81  64  79 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  61  78  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  59  81  62  79 /   0  -   10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  60  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  61  80  63  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  81  62  79 /   0  -   10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24



000
FXUS64 KEWX 291132 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
LOW CLOUDS ARE HAVING A BIT OF DIFFICULTY ON FORMING AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 4 TO 6 DEGREES APART FROM THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES. THEY MAY FORM FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TO OUR EAST
AND SOUTH BUT AWAY FROM THE AREA SITES. WILL GET RID OFF THE
TEMPO GROUPS EARLIER ADDED FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR KSAT AND KSFF.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR BY 06Z MONDAY AND IFR CIGS/VBSYS AROUND 09Z
MONDAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS REMAINS INTACT AND WE EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS NEAR THE
ESCARPMENT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO IN STORE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
NORTH OF THE REGION. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THIS FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN INTACT ON
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE WEAKER COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING OF HIGHS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WE/LL START MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY... RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
COULD AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL
AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE/LL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  61  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  61  78  61  78 /   0  -   20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  79  61  80 /   0  10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  59  79  61  78 /   0  -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  62  81  64  79 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  61  78  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  59  81  62  79 /   0  -   10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  60  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  61  80  63  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  81  62  79 /   0  -   10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24



000
FXUS64 KEWX 291132 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
LOW CLOUDS ARE HAVING A BIT OF DIFFICULTY ON FORMING AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 4 TO 6 DEGREES APART FROM THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES. THEY MAY FORM FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TO OUR EAST
AND SOUTH BUT AWAY FROM THE AREA SITES. WILL GET RID OFF THE
TEMPO GROUPS EARLIER ADDED FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR KSAT AND KSFF.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR BY 06Z MONDAY AND IFR CIGS/VBSYS AROUND 09Z
MONDAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS REMAINS INTACT AND WE EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS NEAR THE
ESCARPMENT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO IN STORE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
NORTH OF THE REGION. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THIS FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN INTACT ON
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE WEAKER COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING OF HIGHS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WE/LL START MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY... RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
COULD AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL
AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE/LL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  61  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  61  78  61  78 /   0  -   20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  79  61  80 /   0  10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  59  79  61  78 /   0  -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  62  81  64  79 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  61  78  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  59  81  62  79 /   0  -   10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  60  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  61  80  63  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  81  62  79 /   0  -   10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24



000
FXUS64 KEWX 291132 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
LOW CLOUDS ARE HAVING A BIT OF DIFFICULTY ON FORMING AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 4 TO 6 DEGREES APART FROM THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES. THEY MAY FORM FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TO OUR EAST
AND SOUTH BUT AWAY FROM THE AREA SITES. WILL GET RID OFF THE
TEMPO GROUPS EARLIER ADDED FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR KSAT AND KSFF.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR BY 06Z MONDAY AND IFR CIGS/VBSYS AROUND 09Z
MONDAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS REMAINS INTACT AND WE EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS NEAR THE
ESCARPMENT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO IN STORE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
NORTH OF THE REGION. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THIS FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN INTACT ON
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE WEAKER COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING OF HIGHS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WE/LL START MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY... RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
COULD AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL
AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE/LL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  61  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  61  78  61  78 /   0  -   20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  79  61  80 /   0  10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  59  79  61  78 /   0  -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  62  81  64  79 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  61  78  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  59  81  62  79 /   0  -   10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  60  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  61  80  63  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  81  62  79 /   0  -   10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24



000
FXUS64 KEWX 291132 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
LOW CLOUDS ARE HAVING A BIT OF DIFFICULTY ON FORMING AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 4 TO 6 DEGREES APART FROM THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES. THEY MAY FORM FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TO OUR EAST
AND SOUTH BUT AWAY FROM THE AREA SITES. WILL GET RID OFF THE
TEMPO GROUPS EARLIER ADDED FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR KSAT AND KSFF.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR BY 06Z MONDAY AND IFR CIGS/VBSYS AROUND 09Z
MONDAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS REMAINS INTACT AND WE EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS NEAR THE
ESCARPMENT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO IN STORE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
NORTH OF THE REGION. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THIS FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN INTACT ON
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE WEAKER COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING OF HIGHS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WE/LL START MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY... RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
COULD AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL
AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE/LL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  61  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  61  78  61  78 /   0  -   20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  79  61  80 /   0  10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  59  79  61  78 /   0  -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  62  81  64  79 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  61  78  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  59  81  62  79 /   0  -   10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  60  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  61  80  63  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  81  62  79 /   0  -   10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 291132 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
LOW CLOUDS ARE HAVING A BIT OF DIFFICULTY ON FORMING AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE AROUND 4 TO 6 DEGREES APART FROM THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES. THEY MAY FORM FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TO OUR EAST
AND SOUTH BUT AWAY FROM THE AREA SITES. WILL GET RID OFF THE
TEMPO GROUPS EARLIER ADDED FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR KSAT AND KSFF.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS
LOWERING TO MVFR BY 06Z MONDAY AND IFR CIGS/VBSYS AROUND 09Z
MONDAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS REMAINS INTACT AND WE EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS NEAR THE
ESCARPMENT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO IN STORE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
NORTH OF THE REGION. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THIS FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN INTACT ON
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE WEAKER COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING OF HIGHS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WE/LL START MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY... RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
COULD AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL
AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE/LL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  61  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  61  78  61  78 /   0  -   20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  79  61  80 /   0  10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  59  79  61  78 /   0  -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  62  81  64  79 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  61  78  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  59  81  62  79 /   0  -   10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  60  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  61  80  63  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  81  62  79 /   0  -   10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24



000
FXUS64 KHGX 291129
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
A COUPLE OF AVIATION HAZARDS WILL START OUT THE MORNING...FIRST
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT THE INLAND SITES THROUGH ABOUT
15Z OR SO. ALSO...A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION HAS LED TO A STRATUS DECK
TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA SITES. AS
THE DECK SCATTERS OUT AROUND OR AFTER 15Z...MIXING WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE WINDS GUSTING FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE INLAND
SITES.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP -- BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
AND THERE WILL BE A REPEAT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. WILL SEE
SOME OTHER PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARD
MORNING AND A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AS WELL WHERE DW PTS ARE
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO THE ONGOING FCST CONCERNING
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND PRECIP CHCS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HAVE
TRENDED THE PRECIP FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN WHICH DEPICTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE W/SW AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...THEN SHIFTING
E/NE ON WED EVE. BELIEVE MOISTURE LEVELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON WED ACROSS SE TX.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF PRECIP NEAR AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS SE TX AND SUPPORT A CHC
OF RAIN THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND. 33

MARINE...
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF FREEPORT WAS HELPING TO
GENERATE CAUTION CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODEL DATA
DIMINISHED THE WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE
WINDS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  62  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              82  63  81  63  81 /   0  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  66  76  66  76 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291129
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
A COUPLE OF AVIATION HAZARDS WILL START OUT THE MORNING...FIRST
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT THE INLAND SITES THROUGH ABOUT
15Z OR SO. ALSO...A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION HAS LED TO A STRATUS DECK
TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA SITES. AS
THE DECK SCATTERS OUT AROUND OR AFTER 15Z...MIXING WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE WINDS GUSTING FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE INLAND
SITES.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP -- BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
AND THERE WILL BE A REPEAT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. WILL SEE
SOME OTHER PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARD
MORNING AND A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AS WELL WHERE DW PTS ARE
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO THE ONGOING FCST CONCERNING
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND PRECIP CHCS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HAVE
TRENDED THE PRECIP FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN WHICH DEPICTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE W/SW AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...THEN SHIFTING
E/NE ON WED EVE. BELIEVE MOISTURE LEVELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON WED ACROSS SE TX.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF PRECIP NEAR AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS SE TX AND SUPPORT A CHC
OF RAIN THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND. 33

MARINE...
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF FREEPORT WAS HELPING TO
GENERATE CAUTION CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODEL DATA
DIMINISHED THE WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE
WINDS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  62  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              82  63  81  63  81 /   0  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  66  76  66  76 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...40



000
FXUS64 KHGX 291129
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
A COUPLE OF AVIATION HAZARDS WILL START OUT THE MORNING...FIRST
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT THE INLAND SITES THROUGH ABOUT
15Z OR SO. ALSO...A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION HAS LED TO A STRATUS DECK
TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA SITES. AS
THE DECK SCATTERS OUT AROUND OR AFTER 15Z...MIXING WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE WINDS GUSTING FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE INLAND
SITES.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP -- BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
AND THERE WILL BE A REPEAT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. WILL SEE
SOME OTHER PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARD
MORNING AND A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AS WELL WHERE DW PTS ARE
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO THE ONGOING FCST CONCERNING
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND PRECIP CHCS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HAVE
TRENDED THE PRECIP FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN WHICH DEPICTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE W/SW AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...THEN SHIFTING
E/NE ON WED EVE. BELIEVE MOISTURE LEVELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON WED ACROSS SE TX.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF PRECIP NEAR AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS SE TX AND SUPPORT A CHC
OF RAIN THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND. 33

MARINE...
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF FREEPORT WAS HELPING TO
GENERATE CAUTION CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODEL DATA
DIMINISHED THE WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE
WINDS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  62  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              82  63  81  63  81 /   0  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  66  76  66  76 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KHGX 291129
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
A COUPLE OF AVIATION HAZARDS WILL START OUT THE MORNING...FIRST
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT THE INLAND SITES THROUGH ABOUT
15Z OR SO. ALSO...A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION HAS LED TO A STRATUS DECK
TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA SITES. AS
THE DECK SCATTERS OUT AROUND OR AFTER 15Z...MIXING WILL LEAD TO
THE SURFACE WINDS GUSTING FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE INLAND
SITES.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP -- BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
AND THERE WILL BE A REPEAT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. WILL SEE
SOME OTHER PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARD
MORNING AND A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AS WELL WHERE DW PTS ARE
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO THE ONGOING FCST CONCERNING
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND PRECIP CHCS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HAVE
TRENDED THE PRECIP FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN WHICH DEPICTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE W/SW AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...THEN SHIFTING
E/NE ON WED EVE. BELIEVE MOISTURE LEVELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON WED ACROSS SE TX.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF PRECIP NEAR AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS SE TX AND SUPPORT A CHC
OF RAIN THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND. 33

MARINE...
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF FREEPORT WAS HELPING TO
GENERATE CAUTION CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODEL DATA
DIMINISHED THE WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE
WINDS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  62  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              82  63  81  63  81 /   0  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  66  76  66  76 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...40


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMAF 291126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Clear skies today. Light wind this morning will come around to the
north during the day as a front moves into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful, warm day expected today as upper ridging persists
across the region while slowly marching eastward. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region this evening, possibly
entering northern zones as early as mid afternoon. Current thinking
is that most areas will have plenty of time to warm into the upper
80s if not a few 90s before the front moves through. The only
exception will be across the northern zones where low 80s are
probable. MOS Guidance has been too warm on high temps the last
couple days and think METMOS is still too warm. Will lean more
toward the cooler MAVMOS for today. Monday will be much cooler with
highs generally in the 70s.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east from the Pacific, enter
northern Mexico by Monday night and move across the region Tuesday.
Models are a bit slower and weaker with this trough, initially
bringing it across Monday night. Current runs depict main area of
upper lift arriving Tuesday morning and increasing through the
afternoon therefore will go ahead and trim PoPs back a little for
Monday night. At the surface, it looks as though a dryline will set
up across the eastern CWA by Tuesday afternoon with decent low level
moisture and modest instability to the east of this line. Will
continue to highlight best thunderstorm chances across eastern
zones. If everything mentioned above comes together at the right
time, could see large hail being the main threat and we could see
the first severe thunderstorms of the season. Stay tuned for any
updates/changes in future forecast packages.

Beyond Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will develop behind the exiting
upper trough resulting in the return of dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Another cold front will move through late in
the week leading to the potential for below normal temps next
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 291126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Clear skies today. Light wind this morning will come around to the
north during the day as a front moves into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful, warm day expected today as upper ridging persists
across the region while slowly marching eastward. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region this evening, possibly
entering northern zones as early as mid afternoon. Current thinking
is that most areas will have plenty of time to warm into the upper
80s if not a few 90s before the front moves through. The only
exception will be across the northern zones where low 80s are
probable. MOS Guidance has been too warm on high temps the last
couple days and think METMOS is still too warm. Will lean more
toward the cooler MAVMOS for today. Monday will be much cooler with
highs generally in the 70s.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east from the Pacific, enter
northern Mexico by Monday night and move across the region Tuesday.
Models are a bit slower and weaker with this trough, initially
bringing it across Monday night. Current runs depict main area of
upper lift arriving Tuesday morning and increasing through the
afternoon therefore will go ahead and trim PoPs back a little for
Monday night. At the surface, it looks as though a dryline will set
up across the eastern CWA by Tuesday afternoon with decent low level
moisture and modest instability to the east of this line. Will
continue to highlight best thunderstorm chances across eastern
zones. If everything mentioned above comes together at the right
time, could see large hail being the main threat and we could see
the first severe thunderstorms of the season. Stay tuned for any
updates/changes in future forecast packages.

Beyond Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will develop behind the exiting
upper trough resulting in the return of dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Another cold front will move through late in
the week leading to the potential for below normal temps next
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 291126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Clear skies today. Light wind this morning will come around to the
north during the day as a front moves into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful, warm day expected today as upper ridging persists
across the region while slowly marching eastward. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region this evening, possibly
entering northern zones as early as mid afternoon. Current thinking
is that most areas will have plenty of time to warm into the upper
80s if not a few 90s before the front moves through. The only
exception will be across the northern zones where low 80s are
probable. MOS Guidance has been too warm on high temps the last
couple days and think METMOS is still too warm. Will lean more
toward the cooler MAVMOS for today. Monday will be much cooler with
highs generally in the 70s.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east from the Pacific, enter
northern Mexico by Monday night and move across the region Tuesday.
Models are a bit slower and weaker with this trough, initially
bringing it across Monday night. Current runs depict main area of
upper lift arriving Tuesday morning and increasing through the
afternoon therefore will go ahead and trim PoPs back a little for
Monday night. At the surface, it looks as though a dryline will set
up across the eastern CWA by Tuesday afternoon with decent low level
moisture and modest instability to the east of this line. Will
continue to highlight best thunderstorm chances across eastern
zones. If everything mentioned above comes together at the right
time, could see large hail being the main threat and we could see
the first severe thunderstorms of the season. Stay tuned for any
updates/changes in future forecast packages.

Beyond Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will develop behind the exiting
upper trough resulting in the return of dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Another cold front will move through late in
the week leading to the potential for below normal temps next
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 291126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Clear skies today. Light wind this morning will come around to the
north during the day as a front moves into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful, warm day expected today as upper ridging persists
across the region while slowly marching eastward. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region this evening, possibly
entering northern zones as early as mid afternoon. Current thinking
is that most areas will have plenty of time to warm into the upper
80s if not a few 90s before the front moves through. The only
exception will be across the northern zones where low 80s are
probable. MOS Guidance has been too warm on high temps the last
couple days and think METMOS is still too warm. Will lean more
toward the cooler MAVMOS for today. Monday will be much cooler with
highs generally in the 70s.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east from the Pacific, enter
northern Mexico by Monday night and move across the region Tuesday.
Models are a bit slower and weaker with this trough, initially
bringing it across Monday night. Current runs depict main area of
upper lift arriving Tuesday morning and increasing through the
afternoon therefore will go ahead and trim PoPs back a little for
Monday night. At the surface, it looks as though a dryline will set
up across the eastern CWA by Tuesday afternoon with decent low level
moisture and modest instability to the east of this line. Will
continue to highlight best thunderstorm chances across eastern
zones. If everything mentioned above comes together at the right
time, could see large hail being the main threat and we could see
the first severe thunderstorms of the season. Stay tuned for any
updates/changes in future forecast packages.

Beyond Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will develop behind the exiting
upper trough resulting in the return of dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Another cold front will move through late in
the week leading to the potential for below normal temps next
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 291126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Clear skies today. Light wind this morning will come around to the
north during the day as a front moves into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful, warm day expected today as upper ridging persists
across the region while slowly marching eastward. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region this evening, possibly
entering northern zones as early as mid afternoon. Current thinking
is that most areas will have plenty of time to warm into the upper
80s if not a few 90s before the front moves through. The only
exception will be across the northern zones where low 80s are
probable. MOS Guidance has been too warm on high temps the last
couple days and think METMOS is still too warm. Will lean more
toward the cooler MAVMOS for today. Monday will be much cooler with
highs generally in the 70s.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east from the Pacific, enter
northern Mexico by Monday night and move across the region Tuesday.
Models are a bit slower and weaker with this trough, initially
bringing it across Monday night. Current runs depict main area of
upper lift arriving Tuesday morning and increasing through the
afternoon therefore will go ahead and trim PoPs back a little for
Monday night. At the surface, it looks as though a dryline will set
up across the eastern CWA by Tuesday afternoon with decent low level
moisture and modest instability to the east of this line. Will
continue to highlight best thunderstorm chances across eastern
zones. If everything mentioned above comes together at the right
time, could see large hail being the main threat and we could see
the first severe thunderstorms of the season. Stay tuned for any
updates/changes in future forecast packages.

Beyond Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will develop behind the exiting
upper trough resulting in the return of dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Another cold front will move through late in
the week leading to the potential for below normal temps next
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 291126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Clear skies today. Light wind this morning will come around to the
north during the day as a front moves into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful, warm day expected today as upper ridging persists
across the region while slowly marching eastward. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region this evening, possibly
entering northern zones as early as mid afternoon. Current thinking
is that most areas will have plenty of time to warm into the upper
80s if not a few 90s before the front moves through. The only
exception will be across the northern zones where low 80s are
probable. MOS Guidance has been too warm on high temps the last
couple days and think METMOS is still too warm. Will lean more
toward the cooler MAVMOS for today. Monday will be much cooler with
highs generally in the 70s.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east from the Pacific, enter
northern Mexico by Monday night and move across the region Tuesday.
Models are a bit slower and weaker with this trough, initially
bringing it across Monday night. Current runs depict main area of
upper lift arriving Tuesday morning and increasing through the
afternoon therefore will go ahead and trim PoPs back a little for
Monday night. At the surface, it looks as though a dryline will set
up across the eastern CWA by Tuesday afternoon with decent low level
moisture and modest instability to the east of this line. Will
continue to highlight best thunderstorm chances across eastern
zones. If everything mentioned above comes together at the right
time, could see large hail being the main threat and we could see
the first severe thunderstorms of the season. Stay tuned for any
updates/changes in future forecast packages.

Beyond Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will develop behind the exiting
upper trough resulting in the return of dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Another cold front will move through late in
the week leading to the potential for below normal temps next
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KCRP 291120 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS S TX THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE CRP RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE. SFC WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY
FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT. THE LLJ IS PROGD TO BE LOWER ACROSS THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...LOW VSBY IS BEING REPORTED AT THE ALI TAF
SITE...BUT THIS IS LIKELY VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS NO OTHER
SITES ARE REPORTING ANY FOG AT THIS TIME. AM EXPECTING VSBY`S TO
INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. BY MID MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD MIX LEADING TO STRONG GUSTY SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN
3 TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING...MAINLY FOR
ALI...CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 291120 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS S TX THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE CRP RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE. SFC WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY
FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT. THE LLJ IS PROGD TO BE LOWER ACROSS THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...LOW VSBY IS BEING REPORTED AT THE ALI TAF
SITE...BUT THIS IS LIKELY VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS NO OTHER
SITES ARE REPORTING ANY FOG AT THIS TIME. AM EXPECTING VSBY`S TO
INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. BY MID MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD MIX LEADING TO STRONG GUSTY SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN
3 TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING...MAINLY FOR
ALI...CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 291120 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS S TX THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE CRP RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE. SFC WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY
FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT. THE LLJ IS PROGD TO BE LOWER ACROSS THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...LOW VSBY IS BEING REPORTED AT THE ALI TAF
SITE...BUT THIS IS LIKELY VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS NO OTHER
SITES ARE REPORTING ANY FOG AT THIS TIME. AM EXPECTING VSBY`S TO
INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. BY MID MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD MIX LEADING TO STRONG GUSTY SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN
3 TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING...MAINLY FOR
ALI...CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 291120 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS S TX THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE CRP RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE. SFC WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY
FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT. THE LLJ IS PROGD TO BE LOWER ACROSS THE
WEST. IN ADDITION...LOW VSBY IS BEING REPORTED AT THE ALI TAF
SITE...BUT THIS IS LIKELY VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS NO OTHER
SITES ARE REPORTING ANY FOG AT THIS TIME. AM EXPECTING VSBY`S TO
INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING. BY MID MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD MIX LEADING TO STRONG GUSTY SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN
3 TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING...MAINLY FOR
ALI...CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 291114
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
614 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS S TX THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE CRP RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE. SFC WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY
FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT. THE LLJ IS PROGD TO BE LOWER ACROSS THE
WEST. BY MID MORNING...THESE WINDS SHOULD MIX LEADING TO STRONG
GUSTY SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN 3 TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING...MAINLY FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER
MEXICO IS PROGD TO SHIFT SE AND BECOME FLATTER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BAJA CA FROM THE PACIFIC. SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MOD TO STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL LEAD
TO A WARM DAY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORM TEMPS. THE SLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS INTO S TX WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ON MON. WINDS ARE PROGD
TO BE A TAD LOWER TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP...BUT ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. AS FOR THE WIND FCST...THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 30KTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS BEGINNING AT 1 PM CDT. WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LLJ WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE TRAVERSING SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND HOLDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS MON
NIGHT AND REDUCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST 00Z GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WEAKENS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
00Z EUROPEAN HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT AND STILL BRINGS DECENT
RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE 00Z EURO AND
SUPERBLEND VALUES...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL BE SET BACK A
FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER 80S T0 UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SEEM REASONABLE. WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS.
COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 291114
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
614 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS S TX THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE CRP RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE. SFC WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY
FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT. THE LLJ IS PROGD TO BE LOWER ACROSS THE
WEST. BY MID MORNING...THESE WINDS SHOULD MIX LEADING TO STRONG
GUSTY SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN 3 TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING...MAINLY FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER
MEXICO IS PROGD TO SHIFT SE AND BECOME FLATTER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BAJA CA FROM THE PACIFIC. SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MOD TO STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL LEAD
TO A WARM DAY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORM TEMPS. THE SLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS INTO S TX WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ON MON. WINDS ARE PROGD
TO BE A TAD LOWER TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP...BUT ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. AS FOR THE WIND FCST...THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 30KTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS BEGINNING AT 1 PM CDT. WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LLJ WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE TRAVERSING SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND HOLDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS MON
NIGHT AND REDUCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST 00Z GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WEAKENS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
00Z EUROPEAN HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT AND STILL BRINGS DECENT
RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE 00Z EURO AND
SUPERBLEND VALUES...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL BE SET BACK A
FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER 80S T0 UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SEEM REASONABLE. WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS.
COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 291114
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
614 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS S TX THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE CRP RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE. SFC WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS WELL...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...MAINLY
FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT. THE LLJ IS PROGD TO BE LOWER ACROSS THE
WEST. BY MID MORNING...THESE WINDS SHOULD MIX LEADING TO STRONG
GUSTY SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN 3 TAF SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING...MAINLY FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER
MEXICO IS PROGD TO SHIFT SE AND BECOME FLATTER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BAJA CA FROM THE PACIFIC. SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MOD TO STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL LEAD
TO A WARM DAY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORM TEMPS. THE SLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS INTO S TX WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ON MON. WINDS ARE PROGD
TO BE A TAD LOWER TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP...BUT ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. AS FOR THE WIND FCST...THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 30KTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS BEGINNING AT 1 PM CDT. WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LLJ WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE TRAVERSING SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND HOLDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS MON
NIGHT AND REDUCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST 00Z GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WEAKENS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
00Z EUROPEAN HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT AND STILL BRINGS DECENT
RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE 00Z EURO AND
SUPERBLEND VALUES...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL BE SET BACK A
FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER 80S T0 UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SEEM REASONABLE. WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS.
COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 291100
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. A cold front will move through the northern half of West
Central Texas during the afternoon hours shifting southwesterly
winds to the north at 20-25 kts at the northern terminals. Winds
will remain southwesterly at the southern terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper ridging west of the forecast will keep northwest winds
aloft over the forecast area through tonight. A weak cold front will
move into the northern Panhandle this morning and should move into
the northern Big Country by mid-afternoon. The GFS is a little faster
than the NAM and moves the cold front through the San Angelo area by
00Z. Ahead of the cold front, the 850mb thermal ridge is pushing 23C
degrees through the Concho Valley and into the southern Big Country
by 18Z. Max surface highs will be dependent on the speed of the cold
front, however, still looks like near mid 90s for the Concho Valley
and lower 90s for most of the Big Country. Given the northern
extent of the 850mb thermal ridge, afternoon highs over the
southern CWA will be a little cooler, in the upper 80s. Winds will
shift to the north with the frontal passage late in the day across
the northern half of the area with the ultimate southward progression
of the cold front probably being around the Interstate 10 corridor.
Should only see a couple of degrees of post-frontal cooling over the
northern two thirds of the area with lows generally in the lower 50s.
Will see increasing clouds tonight with mostly cloudy skies expected
over the forecast area by tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)

Not much change in the forecast, with the models still struggling
a little with the short wave coming out on Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. In general, the models have slowed the progression down
about 6 hours, pushing the best rain chances into Tuesday evening
and overnight into early Wednesday morning. GFS continues to be
the driest of the models, due at least partly to it having a
significantly drier low level air mass. With the uncertainty in
whether the low level moisture really can get back into the area,
have not bumped PoPs up, but have shifted the timing around a
little.

Warm and dry for mid to late week, with readings in the 80s for
highs and 50s and 60s for lows. Another weak shortwave tries to
slide into West Central Texas for Saturday Night and Sunday.
Appears right now that best rain chances will be east and south
of the area, but certainly see enough in the model data to keep
the slight chance to chance rain chances in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  53  78  60  81 /   0   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  94  53  80  61  81 /   0   5   5  20  30
Junction  87  54  80  59  79 /   0   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 291100
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. A cold front will move through the northern half of West
Central Texas during the afternoon hours shifting southwesterly
winds to the north at 20-25 kts at the northern terminals. Winds
will remain southwesterly at the southern terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper ridging west of the forecast will keep northwest winds
aloft over the forecast area through tonight. A weak cold front will
move into the northern Panhandle this morning and should move into
the northern Big Country by mid-afternoon. The GFS is a little faster
than the NAM and moves the cold front through the San Angelo area by
00Z. Ahead of the cold front, the 850mb thermal ridge is pushing 23C
degrees through the Concho Valley and into the southern Big Country
by 18Z. Max surface highs will be dependent on the speed of the cold
front, however, still looks like near mid 90s for the Concho Valley
and lower 90s for most of the Big Country. Given the northern
extent of the 850mb thermal ridge, afternoon highs over the
southern CWA will be a little cooler, in the upper 80s. Winds will
shift to the north with the frontal passage late in the day across
the northern half of the area with the ultimate southward progression
of the cold front probably being around the Interstate 10 corridor.
Should only see a couple of degrees of post-frontal cooling over the
northern two thirds of the area with lows generally in the lower 50s.
Will see increasing clouds tonight with mostly cloudy skies expected
over the forecast area by tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)

Not much change in the forecast, with the models still struggling
a little with the short wave coming out on Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. In general, the models have slowed the progression down
about 6 hours, pushing the best rain chances into Tuesday evening
and overnight into early Wednesday morning. GFS continues to be
the driest of the models, due at least partly to it having a
significantly drier low level air mass. With the uncertainty in
whether the low level moisture really can get back into the area,
have not bumped PoPs up, but have shifted the timing around a
little.

Warm and dry for mid to late week, with readings in the 80s for
highs and 50s and 60s for lows. Another weak shortwave tries to
slide into West Central Texas for Saturday Night and Sunday.
Appears right now that best rain chances will be east and south
of the area, but certainly see enough in the model data to keep
the slight chance to chance rain chances in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  53  78  60  81 /   0   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  94  53  80  61  81 /   0   5   5  20  30
Junction  87  54  80  59  79 /   0   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 291100
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. A cold front will move through the northern half of West
Central Texas during the afternoon hours shifting southwesterly
winds to the north at 20-25 kts at the northern terminals. Winds
will remain southwesterly at the southern terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper ridging west of the forecast will keep northwest winds
aloft over the forecast area through tonight. A weak cold front will
move into the northern Panhandle this morning and should move into
the northern Big Country by mid-afternoon. The GFS is a little faster
than the NAM and moves the cold front through the San Angelo area by
00Z. Ahead of the cold front, the 850mb thermal ridge is pushing 23C
degrees through the Concho Valley and into the southern Big Country
by 18Z. Max surface highs will be dependent on the speed of the cold
front, however, still looks like near mid 90s for the Concho Valley
and lower 90s for most of the Big Country. Given the northern
extent of the 850mb thermal ridge, afternoon highs over the
southern CWA will be a little cooler, in the upper 80s. Winds will
shift to the north with the frontal passage late in the day across
the northern half of the area with the ultimate southward progression
of the cold front probably being around the Interstate 10 corridor.
Should only see a couple of degrees of post-frontal cooling over the
northern two thirds of the area with lows generally in the lower 50s.
Will see increasing clouds tonight with mostly cloudy skies expected
over the forecast area by tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)

Not much change in the forecast, with the models still struggling
a little with the short wave coming out on Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. In general, the models have slowed the progression down
about 6 hours, pushing the best rain chances into Tuesday evening
and overnight into early Wednesday morning. GFS continues to be
the driest of the models, due at least partly to it having a
significantly drier low level air mass. With the uncertainty in
whether the low level moisture really can get back into the area,
have not bumped PoPs up, but have shifted the timing around a
little.

Warm and dry for mid to late week, with readings in the 80s for
highs and 50s and 60s for lows. Another weak shortwave tries to
slide into West Central Texas for Saturday Night and Sunday.
Appears right now that best rain chances will be east and south
of the area, but certainly see enough in the model data to keep
the slight chance to chance rain chances in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  53  78  60  81 /   0   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  94  53  80  61  81 /   0   5   5  20  30
Junction  87  54  80  59  79 /   0   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KBRO 290931
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  68  85  67 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  87  69 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  69  78  69 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290931
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  68  85  67 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  87  69 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  69  78  69 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58



000
FXUS64 KBRO 290929
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  68  85  67 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  87  69 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  69  78  69 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58



000
FXUS64 KBRO 290929
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
429 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...EXPECTED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY. AT THE 500 MB LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PGF OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS RESULTING IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PGF MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL POST UP AN WIND ADVISORY MAIN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAMERON/WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES. THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE PGF TO WEAKEN ON
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS.

THE STEADY S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMUP THROUGHOUT TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE RGV WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE OUT WEST.
THE MAV GUIDANCE HAS A WARMER BIAS VERSUS THE MET NUMBERS CLIMFE.
CONSIDERING THAT THE HIGH IN MFE YESTERDAY WAS 86...HAVE A HARD TIME
BELIEVING THE COOLER 81 ADVERTISED BY THE NAM FOR MFE TODAY. SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF NUMBERS WHICH APPEAR MORE
REALISTIC IN THE SHORT TERM.

AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS START INCREASING WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
MONDAY. THE FAIRLY STIFF NIGHTTIME SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA REGION OF
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BIG BEND REGION
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
APPROACH 1.60 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH AND THE LATEST GFS PAINTS LESS POPS AND QPF...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LOWER
POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE VALLEY BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS DUE TO THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AGAIN
MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY COURTESY OF A
WEAK FRONT AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...THE SAME PGF THAT IS PRODUCING THE
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE PUSHING UP THE WIND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIRLY COOL WATER
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS
BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAGUNA
MADRE TO ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. WILL HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING FOR POSTING AN SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS AS THE WINDS MAY STAY JUST BELOW SCA CRIT THERE. THE PGF
WILL THEN DECREASE ON MONDAY SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES PUSHES EASTWARD WHICH APPEARS TO KEEP
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS NEAR SCEC CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  68  85  67 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  87  69 /   0   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  69  78  69 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     TXZ251-254>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58




000
FXUS64 KCRP 290922
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER
MEXICO IS PROGD TO SHIFT SE AND BECOME FLATTER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BAJA CA FROM THE PACIFIC. SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MOD TO STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL LEAD
TO A WARM DAY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORM TEMPS. THE SLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS INTO S TX WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ON MON. WINDS ARE PROGD
TO BE A TAD LOWER TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP...BUT ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. AS FOR THE WIND FCST...THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 30KTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS BEGINNING AT 1 PM CDT. WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LLJ WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE TRAVERSING SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND HOLDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS MON
NIGHT AND REDUCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST 00Z GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WEAKENS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
00Z EUROPEAN HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT AND STILL BRINGS DECENT
RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE 00Z EURO AND
SUPERBLEND VALUES...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL BE SET BACK A
FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER 80S T0 UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SEEM REASONABLE. WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS.
COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 290922
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER
MEXICO IS PROGD TO SHIFT SE AND BECOME FLATTER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BAJA CA FROM THE PACIFIC. SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MOD TO STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL LEAD
TO A WARM DAY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORM TEMPS. THE SLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS INTO S TX WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ON MON. WINDS ARE PROGD
TO BE A TAD LOWER TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP...BUT ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. AS FOR THE WIND FCST...THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 30KTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS BEGINNING AT 1 PM CDT. WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LLJ WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE TRAVERSING SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND HOLDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS MON
NIGHT AND REDUCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST 00Z GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WEAKENS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
00Z EUROPEAN HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT AND STILL BRINGS DECENT
RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE 00Z EURO AND
SUPERBLEND VALUES...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL BE SET BACK A
FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER 80S T0 UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SEEM REASONABLE. WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS.
COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 290922
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER
MEXICO IS PROGD TO SHIFT SE AND BECOME FLATTER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BAJA CA FROM THE PACIFIC. SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MOD TO STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL LEAD
TO A WARM DAY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORM TEMPS. THE SLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS INTO S TX WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ON MON. WINDS ARE PROGD
TO BE A TAD LOWER TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP...BUT ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. AS FOR THE WIND FCST...THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 30KTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS BEGINNING AT 1 PM CDT. WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LLJ WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE TRAVERSING SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND HOLDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS MON
NIGHT AND REDUCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST 00Z GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WEAKENS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
00Z EUROPEAN HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT AND STILL BRINGS DECENT
RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE 00Z EURO AND
SUPERBLEND VALUES...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL BE SET BACK A
FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER 80S T0 UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SEEM REASONABLE. WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS.
COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 290922
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER
MEXICO IS PROGD TO SHIFT SE AND BECOME FLATTER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BAJA CA FROM THE PACIFIC. SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MOD TO STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL LEAD
TO A WARM DAY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORM TEMPS. THE SLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS INTO S TX WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ON MON. WINDS ARE PROGD
TO BE A TAD LOWER TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP...BUT ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. AS FOR THE WIND FCST...THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 30KTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS BEGINNING AT 1 PM CDT. WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LLJ WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE TRAVERSING SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND HOLDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS MON
NIGHT AND REDUCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST 00Z GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WEAKENS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
00Z EUROPEAN HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT AND STILL BRINGS DECENT
RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE 00Z EURO AND
SUPERBLEND VALUES...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL BE SET BACK A
FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER 80S T0 UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SEEM REASONABLE. WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS.
COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 290922
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
422 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER
MEXICO IS PROGD TO SHIFT SE AND BECOME FLATTER THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BAJA CA FROM THE PACIFIC. SUBSIDENT
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A MOD TO STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WIND WILL LEAD
TO A WARM DAY TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORM TEMPS. THE SLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS INTO S TX WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ON MON. WINDS ARE PROGD
TO BE A TAD LOWER TONIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO
DVLP...BUT ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG. AS FOR THE WIND FCST...THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 30KTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS BEGINNING AT 1 PM CDT. WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT...BUT THIS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE LLJ WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING
WINDS TO BE GENERALLY AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BE TRAVERSING SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY. ALSO...MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURNING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND HOLDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BACK
FURTHER TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS MON
NIGHT AND REDUCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST 00Z GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
WEAKENS SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
00Z EUROPEAN HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT AND STILL BRINGS DECENT
RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTH TEXAS. FOR NOW...HAVE FAVORED THE 00Z EURO AND
SUPERBLEND VALUES...WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL BE SET BACK A
FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES. WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUT WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER 80S T0 UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SEEM REASONABLE. WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 90S OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS.
COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  67  83  67  79  /   0  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          83  63  82  64  80  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            89  66  89  67  82  /   0   0   0  10  30
ALICE             88  64  86  65  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          79  67  80  68  78  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           88  64  87  66  80  /   0   0  10  10  30
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  66  81  /   0  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  68  79  68  77  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KEWX 290908
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
408 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS REMAINS INTACT AND WE EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS NEAR THE
ESCARPMENT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO IN STORE FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
NORTH OF THE REGION. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THIS FRONT AS IT
APPROACHES THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN INTACT ON
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE WEAKER COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. CLOUD COVER SHOULD YIELD
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING OF HIGHS ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WE/LL START MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY... RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
COULD AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL
AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE/LL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  61  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  61  78  61  78 /   0  -   20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  60  79  61  80 /   0  10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  59  79  61  78 /   0  -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  62  81  64  79 /   0   0  -   20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  61  78  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  59  81  62  79 /   0  -   10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  60  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  61  80  63  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  60  81  62  79 /   0  -   10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24



000
FXUS64 KFWD 290903
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY THAT WOULD
FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR SLIGHTLY
LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1114 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WE WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF
AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
8 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID MORNING SUNDAY AS VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENSUES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 14 AND 18 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE
BY SUNSET SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RED RIVER AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEAKENS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KFWD 290903
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
403 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO NEAR 90 OUT WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND
THIS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY...AND THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
AND PENDANT COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
NORTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO THE
LIFT...INSTABILITY...AND MOISTURE RETURN YIELD A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
WINDS DOWN ON MONDAY...EXPECT THE UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO REALLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SIX DAYS ARE EPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY THAT WOULD
FINALLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR SLIGHTLY
LOWER. ALSO...LOW RAIN CHANCES WOULD RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AJS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1114 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WE WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF
AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
8 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID MORNING SUNDAY AS VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENSUES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 14 AND 18 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE
BY SUNSET SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RED RIVER AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEAKENS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  60  75  63  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              85  62  77  62  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
PARIS, TX             78  55  72  58  75 /  10  30  30  20  20
DENTON, TX            83  57  74  61  78 /   5  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          81  57  73  62  77 /   5  30  30  20  20
DALLAS, TX            83  61  75  63  78 /   5  30  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           82  59  74  61  76 /  10  30  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  76  61  76 /   5  20  30  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  61  77  61  77 /   5  10  20  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  57  75  61  79 /   5  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /



000
FXUS64 KSJT 290858
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
358 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Weak upper ridging west of the forecast will keep northwest winds
aloft over the forecast area through tonight. A weak cold front will
move into the northern Panhandle this morning and should move into
the northern Big Country by mid-afternoon. The GFS is a little faster
than the NAM and moves the cold front through the San Angelo area by
00Z. Ahead of the cold front, the 850mb thermal ridge is pushing 23C
degrees through the Concho Valley and into the southern Big Country
by 18Z. Max surface highs will be dependent on the speed of the cold
front, however, still looks like near mid 90s for the Concho Valley
and lower 90s for most of the Big Country. Given the northern
extent of the 850mb thermal ridge, afternoon highs over the
southern CWA will be a little cooler, in the upper 80s. Winds will
shift to the north with the frontal passage late in the day across
the northern half of the area with the ultimate southward progression
of the cold front probably being around the Interstate 10 corridor.
Should only see a couple of degrees of post-frontal cooling over the
northern two thirds of the area with lows generally in the lower 50s.
Will see increasing clouds tonight with mostly cloudy skies expected
over the forecast area by tomorrow morning.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)

Not much change in the forecast, with the models still struggling
a little with the short wave coming out on Tuesday and Tuesday
Night. In general, the models have slowed the progression down
about 6 hours, pushing the best rain chances into Tuesday evening
and overnight into early Wednesday morning. GFS continues to be
the driest of the models, due at least partly to it having a
significantly drier low level air mass. With the uncertainty in
whether the low level moisture really can get back into the area,
have not bumped PoPs up, but have shifted the timing around a
little.

Warm and dry for mid to late week, with readings in the 80s for
highs and 50s and 60s for lows. Another weak shortwave tries to
slide into West Central Texas for Saturday Night and Sunday.
Appears right now that best rain chances will be east and south
of the area, but certainly see enough in the model data to keep
the slight chance to chance rain chances in the forecast.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  92  53  78  60  81 /   0   5   5  20  30
San Angelo  94  53  80  61  81 /   0   5   5  20  30
Junction  87  54  80  59  79 /   0   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/07





000
FXUS64 KAMA 290854
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
354 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NOW
AND ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
AFTER A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES TODAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES
MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MIX EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLES.

CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A FEW OR SOME STORMS MAY POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE
WEST BY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOOWING THE PASSAGE OF EACH
COLD FRONT. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AFTER THE REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER
AIR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BY
15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...EVEN THOUGH THE DRIER AIR TRACKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT THE 3-HOUR
TEMPORAL CRITERIA TO BE MET BEFORE THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS FALL BELOW
20 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
AGAIN.

THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OR SO. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY OF AROUND 18 TO 26 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                73  41  74  48  82 /   0   0   0   5  20
BEAVER OK                  73  38  77  45  83 /   0   0  10   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              69  39  76  44  80 /   0   5   5  10   5
BORGER TX                  75  44  76  51  84 /   0   0   0   5  20
BOYS RANCH TX              75  41  77  45  84 /   0   0   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  74  41  75  47  81 /   0   0   0   5  20
CLARENDON TX               76  42  73  50  83 /   0   0   0   5  30
DALHART TX                 71  38  76  43  81 /   0   0   5  10  10
GUYMON OK                  72  39  77  44  82 /   0   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                74  41  74  46  82 /   0   0   0   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                74  39  75  48  83 /   5   0   5   5  20
PAMPA TX                   72  41  73  49  82 /   0   0   0   5  20
SHAMROCK TX                77  42  74  50  83 /   5   0   5   5  30
WELLINGTON TX              80  44  75  51  84 /   5   0   0   5  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 290854
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
354 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NOW
AND ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
AFTER A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES TODAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES
MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MIX EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLES.

CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A FEW OR SOME STORMS MAY POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE
WEST BY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOOWING THE PASSAGE OF EACH
COLD FRONT. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AFTER THE REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER
AIR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BY
15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...EVEN THOUGH THE DRIER AIR TRACKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT THE 3-HOUR
TEMPORAL CRITERIA TO BE MET BEFORE THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS FALL BELOW
20 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
AGAIN.

THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OR SO. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY OF AROUND 18 TO 26 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                73  41  74  48  82 /   0   0   0   5  20
BEAVER OK                  73  38  77  45  83 /   0   0  10   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              69  39  76  44  80 /   0   5   5  10   5
BORGER TX                  75  44  76  51  84 /   0   0   0   5  20
BOYS RANCH TX              75  41  77  45  84 /   0   0   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  74  41  75  47  81 /   0   0   0   5  20
CLARENDON TX               76  42  73  50  83 /   0   0   0   5  30
DALHART TX                 71  38  76  43  81 /   0   0   5  10  10
GUYMON OK                  72  39  77  44  82 /   0   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                74  41  74  46  82 /   0   0   0   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                74  39  75  48  83 /   5   0   5   5  20
PAMPA TX                   72  41  73  49  82 /   0   0   0   5  20
SHAMROCK TX                77  42  74  50  83 /   5   0   5   5  30
WELLINGTON TX              80  44  75  51  84 /   5   0   0   5  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 290854
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
354 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NOW
AND ROUGHLY 15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.
AFTER A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES TODAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES
MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH AND EAST AS A WARM FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MIX EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLES.

CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...A FEW OR SOME STORMS MAY POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK TO THE
WEST BY WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN USHERING IN A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOOWING THE PASSAGE OF EACH
COLD FRONT. MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AFTER THE REINFORCING SURGE OF MUCH COOLER
AIR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING BY
15Z TODAY SHIFTING THE 20 FOOT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT...EVEN THOUGH THE DRIER AIR TRACKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT THE 3-HOUR
TEMPORAL CRITERIA TO BE MET BEFORE THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS FALL BELOW
20 MPH AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
AGAIN.

THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OR SO. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MONDAY OF AROUND 18 TO 26 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                73  41  74  48  82 /   0   0   0   5  20
BEAVER OK                  73  38  77  45  83 /   0   0  10   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              69  39  76  44  80 /   0   5   5  10   5
BORGER TX                  75  44  76  51  84 /   0   0   0   5  20
BOYS RANCH TX              75  41  77  45  84 /   0   0   5   5  10
CANYON TX                  74  41  75  47  81 /   0   0   0   5  20
CLARENDON TX               76  42  73  50  83 /   0   0   0   5  30
DALHART TX                 71  38  76  43  81 /   0   0   5  10  10
GUYMON OK                  72  39  77  44  82 /   0   5   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                74  41  74  46  82 /   0   0   0   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                74  39  75  48  83 /   5   0   5   5  20
PAMPA TX                   72  41  73  49  82 /   0   0   0   5  20
SHAMROCK TX                77  42  74  50  83 /   5   0   5   5  30
WELLINGTON TX              80  44  75  51  84 /   5   0   0   5  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/11





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 290844
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
244 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...BUT IT WILL
WEAKEN AND SAG SOUTH ALLOWING THE RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN AND
VERY NEAR OR AT DAILY RECORD LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LATER
IN THE DAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING A BIT OF MOISTURE RESULTING IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FOR THAT PERIOD. THAT
SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY AND DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEXT
WEEKEND UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE BORDERLAND TO BRING BACK RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
FLATTENING WITH A BACKING SOUTHWEST FLOW UPSTREAM OPENING THE
AREA TO UPPER-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE W TOWARD THE E ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE QUITE WARM WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT RECORDS. WINDS LOOK TO
SLACKEN TODAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL GRADIENTS RELAX.

MONDAY`S ANTICIPATED PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN
AND MODELS ARE DELAYING IT`S INITIAL EFFECTS ON OUR CWFA. MOST OF
THE DAY APPEARS DRY WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS AND INCREASING MID
CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS DO HAVE SOME DEW POINT CREEP...BUT LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY. THE SLOWER TRACK OF THE SYSTEM DOES ALLOW IT
TO INGEST A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND THUS PW`S ARE AS HIGH AS 3/4"
FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS APPEAR TO BEGIN PCPN CHANCES AFTER
18Z WEST AND MTN ZONES. BY 00Z THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RISK
OVER MOST AREAS. LI`S AND CAPES ARE QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE AND COULD
BE CHARACTERIZED AS JUST ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF NEUTRAL. THUS
STORMS LOOK WEAK AND QUITE ISOLATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. POPS WILL STAY IN THE ISOLATED RANGE WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE FOR THE DURATION OF THUS SYSTEM`S PASSAGE. WILL ALLOW THE
POPS TO RUN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN WITH THE SLOWER TRACK AND THEN
PURGE THE POPS FOR TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THUR THE PATTERN RETURNS TO A DEEP ZONAL FLOW WITH QUITE
DRY AIR MOVING BACK OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL WARM FOR BOTH DAYS
WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE M-U 80S. DEEP MIXING...INCREASED WINDS
ALOFT...AND DEEPER LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL ALL COMPLIMENT EACH
OTHER TO BRING WINDS UP INTO THE GUSTY AND NEAR WINDY RANGES BOTH
DAYS. STILL NOT A CLASSIC SPRING WIND EVENT...BUT SOME OF THE
STRONGEST PERSISTENT WINDS OF THE SEASON FOR THESE DAYS.

FRIDAY THE WINDS LOOK TO SHUT DOWN AS A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES DOWN
THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS AND INTO THE AREA. THIS MODIFIED AIRMASS
WILL TURN WINDS EAST AND BRING MINOR COOLING TO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL PART WAYS. THE GFS IS QUITE WET
WITH A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN OVER THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS
QUITE DRY WITH A BROADER AND SHALLOWER WAVE MOVING IN AND A WEAKER
FRONT WASHING OUT. THE GFS LOOKS PRETTY RADICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE DRY OPTION FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/12Z-30/12Z...
SAGGING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL
RESULT IN BACKING FLOW ALOFT TURNING WINDS SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWING
HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD IN ACROSS THE REGION. SKC-FEW250 EARLY TODAY
WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM W TO E AND BECOMING SCT-BKN250 AFT 21Z.
SFC WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER TODAY...AND MORE VARIABLE...BUT
GENERALLY WESTERLY AT 5-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE DAILY RECORD. SKIES WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH THIN CLOUDS TODAY. MONDAY A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GIVING US A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY. DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE A CONCERN. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WITH DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE
REGION. THIS CREATES BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOW RH AND THE BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR WED AND THU. AFTERNOONS
LOOK BREEZY BUT STILL NO MAJOR WIND/DUST EVENTS ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN RH VALUES WILL RANGE IN THE 5% TO
15% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  58  84  58  80 /   0   0   0  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           87  55  79  53  75 /   0   0   0  20  30
LAS CRUCES              85  58  82  51  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              83  53  81  49  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              64  43  59  41  58 /   0   0  20  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  54  79  51  79 /   0   0   0  10   0
SILVER CITY             76  51  73  47  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEMING                  85  53  84  50  80 /   0   0   0  10  10
LORDSBURG               84  50  82  48  79 /   0   0   0  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      86  61  84  58  79 /   0   0   0  10  20
DELL CITY               89  52  80  51  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            90  59  82  55  79 /   0   0   0  20  30
LOMA LINDA              81  55  78  53  73 /   0   0   0  20  20
FABENS                  88  59  83  56  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
SANTA TERESA            85  55  83  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          83  54  82  55  78 /   0   0   0  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           83  46  82  47  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
HATCH                   84  52  82  50  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
COLUMBUS                84  55  83  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  20
OROGRANDE               83  55  82  53  78 /   0   0   0  10  10
MAYHILL                 73  45  68  46  66 /   0   0  10  20  10
MESCALERO               72  43  68  42  67 /   0   0  10  20  10
TIMBERON                72  45  69  44  66 /   0   0  10  20  10
WINSTON                 76  47  71  43  73 /   0   0  10  10  10
HILLSBORO               81  53  77  48  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPACEPORT               83  49  81  47  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            75  45  71  42  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
HURLEY                  79  50  76  47  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
CLIFF                   82  49  80  46  78 /   0   0  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              80  41  78  39  77 /   0   0  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 79  52  76  48  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANIMAS                  84  54  81  52  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
HACHITA                 85  50  83  51  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          83  50  81  49  78 /   0   0  10  10  10
CLOVERDALE              81  51  78  47  75 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 290844
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
244 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...BUT IT WILL
WEAKEN AND SAG SOUTH ALLOWING THE RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN AND
VERY NEAR OR AT DAILY RECORD LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. LATER
IN THE DAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING A BIT OF MOISTURE RESULTING IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FOR THAT PERIOD. THAT
SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY AND DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEXT
WEEKEND UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS AN UPPER WAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE BORDERLAND TO BRING BACK RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
FLATTENING WITH A BACKING SOUTHWEST FLOW UPSTREAM OPENING THE
AREA TO UPPER-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE W TOWARD THE E ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE QUITE WARM WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT RECORDS. WINDS LOOK TO
SLACKEN TODAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL GRADIENTS RELAX.

MONDAY`S ANTICIPATED PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN
AND MODELS ARE DELAYING IT`S INITIAL EFFECTS ON OUR CWFA. MOST OF
THE DAY APPEARS DRY WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS AND INCREASING MID
CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS DO HAVE SOME DEW POINT CREEP...BUT LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY. THE SLOWER TRACK OF THE SYSTEM DOES ALLOW IT
TO INGEST A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND THUS PW`S ARE AS HIGH AS 3/4"
FOR MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS APPEAR TO BEGIN PCPN CHANCES AFTER
18Z WEST AND MTN ZONES. BY 00Z THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT RISK
OVER MOST AREAS. LI`S AND CAPES ARE QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE AND COULD
BE CHARACTERIZED AS JUST ON THE UNSTABLE SIDE OF NEUTRAL. THUS
STORMS LOOK WEAK AND QUITE ISOLATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY
AFTN/EVE. POPS WILL STAY IN THE ISOLATED RANGE WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE FOR THE DURATION OF THUS SYSTEM`S PASSAGE. WILL ALLOW THE
POPS TO RUN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN WITH THE SLOWER TRACK AND THEN
PURGE THE POPS FOR TUE NIGHT.

WED AND THUR THE PATTERN RETURNS TO A DEEP ZONAL FLOW WITH QUITE
DRY AIR MOVING BACK OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL WARM FOR BOTH DAYS
WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE M-U 80S. DEEP MIXING...INCREASED WINDS
ALOFT...AND DEEPER LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL ALL COMPLIMENT EACH
OTHER TO BRING WINDS UP INTO THE GUSTY AND NEAR WINDY RANGES BOTH
DAYS. STILL NOT A CLASSIC SPRING WIND EVENT...BUT SOME OF THE
STRONGEST PERSISTENT WINDS OF THE SEASON FOR THESE DAYS.

FRIDAY THE WINDS LOOK TO SHUT DOWN AS A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES DOWN
THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS AND INTO THE AREA. THIS MODIFIED AIRMASS
WILL TURN WINDS EAST AND BRING MINOR COOLING TO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL PART WAYS. THE GFS IS QUITE WET
WITH A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN OVER THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS
QUITE DRY WITH A BROADER AND SHALLOWER WAVE MOVING IN AND A WEAKER
FRONT WASHING OUT. THE GFS LOOKS PRETTY RADICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE DRY OPTION FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/12Z-30/12Z...
SAGGING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL
RESULT IN BACKING FLOW ALOFT TURNING WINDS SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWING
HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD IN ACROSS THE REGION. SKC-FEW250 EARLY TODAY
WITH CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM W TO E AND BECOMING SCT-BKN250 AFT 21Z.
SFC WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER TODAY...AND MORE VARIABLE...BUT
GENERALLY WESTERLY AT 5-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE DAILY RECORD. SKIES WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN HIGH THIN CLOUDS TODAY. MONDAY A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY GIVING US A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MID-DAY. DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE A CONCERN. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WITH DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE
REGION. THIS CREATES BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOW RH AND THE BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR WED AND THU. AFTERNOONS
LOOK BREEZY BUT STILL NO MAJOR WIND/DUST EVENTS ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN. MEAN RH VALUES WILL RANGE IN THE 5% TO
15% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  58  84  58  80 /   0   0   0  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           87  55  79  53  75 /   0   0   0  20  30
LAS CRUCES              85  58  82  51  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              83  53  81  49  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              64  43  59  41  58 /   0   0  20  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  54  79  51  79 /   0   0   0  10   0
SILVER CITY             76  51  73  47  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEMING                  85  53  84  50  80 /   0   0   0  10  10
LORDSBURG               84  50  82  48  79 /   0   0   0  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      86  61  84  58  79 /   0   0   0  10  20
DELL CITY               89  52  80  51  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            90  59  82  55  79 /   0   0   0  20  30
LOMA LINDA              81  55  78  53  73 /   0   0   0  20  20
FABENS                  88  59  83  56  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
SANTA TERESA            85  55  83  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          83  54  82  55  78 /   0   0   0  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           83  46  82  47  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
HATCH                   84  52  82  50  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
COLUMBUS                84  55  83  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  20
OROGRANDE               83  55  82  53  78 /   0   0   0  10  10
MAYHILL                 73  45  68  46  66 /   0   0  10  20  10
MESCALERO               72  43  68  42  67 /   0   0  10  20  10
TIMBERON                72  45  69  44  66 /   0   0  10  20  10
WINSTON                 76  47  71  43  73 /   0   0  10  10  10
HILLSBORO               81  53  77  48  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPACEPORT               83  49  81  47  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            75  45  71  42  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
HURLEY                  79  50  76  47  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
CLIFF                   82  49  80  46  78 /   0   0  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              80  41  78  39  77 /   0   0  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 79  52  76  48  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ANIMAS                  84  54  81  52  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
HACHITA                 85  50  83  51  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          83  50  81  49  78 /   0   0  10  10  10
CLOVERDALE              81  51  78  47  75 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD






000
FXUS64 KMAF 290810
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
310 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful, warm day expected today as upper ridging persists
across the region while slowly marching eastward. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region this evening, possibly
entering northern zones as early as mid afternoon. Current thinking
is that most areas will have plenty of time to warm into the upper
80s if not a few 90s before the front moves through. The only
exception will be across the northern zones where low 80s are
probable. MOS Guidance has been too warm on high temps the last
couple days and think METMOS is still too warm. Will lean more
toward the cooler MAVMOS for today. Monday will be much cooler with
highs generally in the 70s.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east from the Pacific, enter
northern Mexico by Monday night and move across the region Tuesday.
Models are a bit slower and weaker with this trough, initially
bringing it across Monday night. Current runs depict main area of
upper lift arriving Tuesday morning and increasing through the
afternoon therefore will go ahead and trim PoPs back a little for
Monday night. At the surface, it looks as though a dryline will set
up across the eastern CWA by Tuesday afternoon with decent low level
moisture and modest instability to the east of this line. Will
continue to highlight best thunderstorm chances across eastern
zones. If everything mentioned above comes together at the right
time, could see large hail being the main threat and we could see
the first severe thunderstorms of the season. Stay tuned for any
updates/changes in future forecast packages.

Beyond Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will develop behind the exiting
upper trough resulting in the return of dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Another cold front will move through late in
the week leading to the potential for below normal temps next
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 86  47  74  55  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              89  49  77  59  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                87  47  75  51  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  91  56  79  60  /   0   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           90  51  76  59  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  50  71  51  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   83  44  73  51  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   83  41  75  50  /   0   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    88  47  76  57  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  87  47  75  58  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    90  50  76  56  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/27

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http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

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http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 290810
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
310 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful, warm day expected today as upper ridging persists
across the region while slowly marching eastward. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region this evening, possibly
entering northern zones as early as mid afternoon. Current thinking
is that most areas will have plenty of time to warm into the upper
80s if not a few 90s before the front moves through. The only
exception will be across the northern zones where low 80s are
probable. MOS Guidance has been too warm on high temps the last
couple days and think METMOS is still too warm. Will lean more
toward the cooler MAVMOS for today. Monday will be much cooler with
highs generally in the 70s.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east from the Pacific, enter
northern Mexico by Monday night and move across the region Tuesday.
Models are a bit slower and weaker with this trough, initially
bringing it across Monday night. Current runs depict main area of
upper lift arriving Tuesday morning and increasing through the
afternoon therefore will go ahead and trim PoPs back a little for
Monday night. At the surface, it looks as though a dryline will set
up across the eastern CWA by Tuesday afternoon with decent low level
moisture and modest instability to the east of this line. Will
continue to highlight best thunderstorm chances across eastern
zones. If everything mentioned above comes together at the right
time, could see large hail being the main threat and we could see
the first severe thunderstorms of the season. Stay tuned for any
updates/changes in future forecast packages.

Beyond Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will develop behind the exiting
upper trough resulting in the return of dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Another cold front will move through late in
the week leading to the potential for below normal temps next
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 86  47  74  55  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              89  49  77  59  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                87  47  75  51  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  91  56  79  60  /   0   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           90  51  76  59  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  50  71  51  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   83  44  73  51  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   83  41  75  50  /   0   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    88  47  76  57  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  87  47  75  58  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    90  50  76  56  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/27

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Check us out on the internet at:
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 290801
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. WILL SEE
SOME OTHER PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARD
MORNING AND A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AS WELL WHERE DW PTS ARE
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO THE ONGOING FCST CONCERNING
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND PRECIP CHCS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HAVE
TRENDED THE PRECIP FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN WHICH DEPICTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE W/SW AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...THEN SHIFTING
E/NE ON WED EVE. BELIEVE MOISTURE LEVELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON WED ACROSS SE TX.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF PRECIP NEAR AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS SE TX AND SUPPORT A CHC
OF RAIN THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND. 33

&&

.MARINE...
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF FREEPORT WAS HELPING TO
GENERATE CAUTION CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODEL DATA
DIMINISHED THE WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE
WINDS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

40

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  62  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              82  63  81  63  81 /   0  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  66  76  66  76 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33



000
FXUS64 KHGX 290801
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. WILL SEE
SOME OTHER PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARD
MORNING AND A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AS WELL WHERE DW PTS ARE
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO THE ONGOING FCST CONCERNING
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND PRECIP CHCS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HAVE
TRENDED THE PRECIP FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN WHICH DEPICTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE W/SW AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...THEN SHIFTING
E/NE ON WED EVE. BELIEVE MOISTURE LEVELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON WED ACROSS SE TX.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF PRECIP NEAR AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS SE TX AND SUPPORT A CHC
OF RAIN THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND. 33

&&

.MARINE...
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF FREEPORT WAS HELPING TO
GENERATE CAUTION CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODEL DATA
DIMINISHED THE WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE
WINDS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

40

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  62  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              82  63  81  63  81 /   0  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  66  76  66  76 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33



000
FXUS64 KHGX 290801
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. WILL SEE
SOME OTHER PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARD
MORNING AND A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AS WELL WHERE DW PTS ARE
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO THE ONGOING FCST CONCERNING
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND PRECIP CHCS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HAVE
TRENDED THE PRECIP FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN WHICH DEPICTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE W/SW AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...THEN SHIFTING
E/NE ON WED EVE. BELIEVE MOISTURE LEVELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON WED ACROSS SE TX.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF PRECIP NEAR AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS SE TX AND SUPPORT A CHC
OF RAIN THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND. 33

&&

.MARINE...
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF FREEPORT WAS HELPING TO
GENERATE CAUTION CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODEL DATA
DIMINISHED THE WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE
WINDS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

40

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  62  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              82  63  81  63  81 /   0  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  66  76  66  76 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33



000
FXUS64 KHGX 290801
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. WILL SEE
SOME OTHER PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARD
MORNING AND A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AS WELL WHERE DW PTS ARE
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO THE ONGOING FCST CONCERNING
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND PRECIP CHCS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HAVE
TRENDED THE PRECIP FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN WHICH DEPICTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE W/SW AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...THEN SHIFTING
E/NE ON WED EVE. BELIEVE MOISTURE LEVELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON WED ACROSS SE TX.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF PRECIP NEAR AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS SE TX AND SUPPORT A CHC
OF RAIN THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND. 33

&&

.MARINE...
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF FREEPORT WAS HELPING TO
GENERATE CAUTION CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODEL DATA
DIMINISHED THE WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE
WINDS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

40

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  62  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              82  63  81  63  81 /   0  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  66  76  66  76 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33



000
FXUS64 KLUB 290801
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT MAINTAINS AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...BUT IT
WILL DELIVER A COLD FRONT TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. AS OF 07Z...THE COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND
IT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD ENTER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 14Z. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...PERHAPS NOT EXITING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH 30+ KT JET AT 850 MB WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN GUSTY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD OCCASIONAL FLIRT WITH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY
AND NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY PLANNED.

THE FRONT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING WITH IT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW THIN/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL THICKEN/LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S...WITH A FEW 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST ZONES.

.LONG TERM...
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NWWD BACK INTO WTX ON THE LLJ
MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IN THE NM HIGHLANDS
AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SUGGESTS IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE STATE
LINE...BUT IT MAY BE OVER-ZEALOUS WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NW MX INTO SW TX ON
TUESDAY...TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE NAM AND ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THE NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ADJUST TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER AT THIS
POINT SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT
IN THE NW TO 30 PERCENT IN THE SE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE FOR NOW. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED BY ANY MOIST CONVECTION. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE 80S AND THE MORE
ROBUST SURFACE DEWPOINTS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CAPES IN THE RANGE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER T-STORM CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR.

AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES...WE EXPECT A DRY...BREEZY AND WARM PERIOD
AS SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS DOWNSTREAM
OF A UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EXPOUNDED UPON BELOW. AS
IT LOOKS NOW...WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THU AND FRIDAY...AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERCEPTING RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NM
AND WTX...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
TRANSITION AND THUS IS WARMER AND DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT...IT WILL
CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

A PERIOD OF DEEP...DRY...WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BOTH
AFTERNOONS...AND POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT PORTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO
DECISIVELY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  38  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         74  39  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  40  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     80  43  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       80  42  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  43  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    83  44  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     82  45  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          84  46  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  49  76  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 290801
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT MAINTAINS AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...BUT IT
WILL DELIVER A COLD FRONT TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. AS OF 07Z...THE COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND
IT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD ENTER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 14Z. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...PERHAPS NOT EXITING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH 30+ KT JET AT 850 MB WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN GUSTY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD OCCASIONAL FLIRT WITH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY
AND NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY PLANNED.

THE FRONT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING WITH IT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW THIN/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL THICKEN/LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S...WITH A FEW 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST ZONES.

.LONG TERM...
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NWWD BACK INTO WTX ON THE LLJ
MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IN THE NM HIGHLANDS
AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SUGGESTS IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE STATE
LINE...BUT IT MAY BE OVER-ZEALOUS WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NW MX INTO SW TX ON
TUESDAY...TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE NAM AND ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THE NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ADJUST TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER AT THIS
POINT SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT
IN THE NW TO 30 PERCENT IN THE SE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE FOR NOW. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED BY ANY MOIST CONVECTION. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE 80S AND THE MORE
ROBUST SURFACE DEWPOINTS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CAPES IN THE RANGE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER T-STORM CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR.

AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES...WE EXPECT A DRY...BREEZY AND WARM PERIOD
AS SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS DOWNSTREAM
OF A UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EXPOUNDED UPON BELOW. AS
IT LOOKS NOW...WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THU AND FRIDAY...AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERCEPTING RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NM
AND WTX...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
TRANSITION AND THUS IS WARMER AND DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT...IT WILL
CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

A PERIOD OF DEEP...DRY...WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BOTH
AFTERNOONS...AND POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT PORTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO
DECISIVELY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  38  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         74  39  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  40  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     80  43  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       80  42  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  43  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    83  44  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     82  45  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          84  46  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  49  76  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33



000
FXUS64 KLUB 290801
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT MAINTAINS AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...BUT IT
WILL DELIVER A COLD FRONT TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. AS OF 07Z...THE COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND
IT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD ENTER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 14Z. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...PERHAPS NOT EXITING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH 30+ KT JET AT 850 MB WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN GUSTY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD OCCASIONAL FLIRT WITH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY
AND NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY PLANNED.

THE FRONT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING WITH IT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW THIN/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL THICKEN/LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S...WITH A FEW 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST ZONES.

.LONG TERM...
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NWWD BACK INTO WTX ON THE LLJ
MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IN THE NM HIGHLANDS
AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SUGGESTS IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE STATE
LINE...BUT IT MAY BE OVER-ZEALOUS WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NW MX INTO SW TX ON
TUESDAY...TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE NAM AND ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THE NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ADJUST TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER AT THIS
POINT SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT
IN THE NW TO 30 PERCENT IN THE SE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE FOR NOW. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED BY ANY MOIST CONVECTION. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE 80S AND THE MORE
ROBUST SURFACE DEWPOINTS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CAPES IN THE RANGE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER T-STORM CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR.

AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES...WE EXPECT A DRY...BREEZY AND WARM PERIOD
AS SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS DOWNSTREAM
OF A UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EXPOUNDED UPON BELOW. AS
IT LOOKS NOW...WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THU AND FRIDAY...AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERCEPTING RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NM
AND WTX...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
TRANSITION AND THUS IS WARMER AND DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT...IT WILL
CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

A PERIOD OF DEEP...DRY...WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BOTH
AFTERNOONS...AND POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT PORTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO
DECISIVELY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  38  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         74  39  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  40  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     80  43  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       80  42  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  43  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    83  44  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     82  45  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          84  46  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  49  76  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33



000
FXUS64 KHGX 290801
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AREAS...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT. WILL SEE
SOME OTHER PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARD
MORNING AND A FEW PATCHES OF FOG AS WELL WHERE DW PTS ARE
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO THE ONGOING FCST CONCERNING
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND PRECIP CHCS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HAVE
TRENDED THE PRECIP FCST TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN WHICH DEPICTS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE W/SW AREAS LATE TUE NIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...THEN SHIFTING
E/NE ON WED EVE. BELIEVE MOISTURE LEVELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON WED ACROSS SE TX.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF PRECIP NEAR AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LOOKS LIKE THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS SE TX AND SUPPORT A CHC
OF RAIN THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND. 33

&&

.MARINE...
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF FREEPORT WAS HELPING TO
GENERATE CAUTION CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODEL DATA
DIMINISHED THE WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE
WINDS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

40

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  62  79  62  79 /   0  10  20  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              82  63  81  63  81 /   0  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  66  76  66  76 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 290801
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT MAINTAINS AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...BUT IT
WILL DELIVER A COLD FRONT TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. AS OF 07Z...THE COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND
IT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD ENTER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 14Z. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...PERHAPS NOT EXITING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH 30+ KT JET AT 850 MB WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN GUSTY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD OCCASIONAL FLIRT WITH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY
AND NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY PLANNED.

THE FRONT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING WITH IT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW THIN/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL THICKEN/LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S...WITH A FEW 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST ZONES.

.LONG TERM...
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NWWD BACK INTO WTX ON THE LLJ
MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IN THE NM HIGHLANDS
AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SUGGESTS IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE STATE
LINE...BUT IT MAY BE OVER-ZEALOUS WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NW MX INTO SW TX ON
TUESDAY...TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE NAM AND ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THE NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ADJUST TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER AT THIS
POINT SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT
IN THE NW TO 30 PERCENT IN THE SE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE FOR NOW. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED BY ANY MOIST CONVECTION. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE 80S AND THE MORE
ROBUST SURFACE DEWPOINTS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CAPES IN THE RANGE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER T-STORM CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR.

AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES...WE EXPECT A DRY...BREEZY AND WARM PERIOD
AS SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS DOWNSTREAM
OF A UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EXPOUNDED UPON BELOW. AS
IT LOOKS NOW...WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THU AND FRIDAY...AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERCEPTING RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NM
AND WTX...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
TRANSITION AND THUS IS WARMER AND DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT...IT WILL
CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

A PERIOD OF DEEP...DRY...WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BOTH
AFTERNOONS...AND POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT PORTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO
DECISIVELY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  38  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         74  39  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  40  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     80  43  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       80  42  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  43  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    83  44  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     82  45  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          84  46  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  49  76  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290602 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
102 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV AIRPORTS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE BRO
VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT AROUND 45 KNOTS EVIDENT
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS IN THE
OVERNIGHT PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  68  78  70 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          84  67  84  69 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  66  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  88  69 /   0   0  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  65  89  68 /   0   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  69  76  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290602 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
102 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV AIRPORTS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE BRO
VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT AROUND 45 KNOTS EVIDENT
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS IN THE
OVERNIGHT PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  68  78  70 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          84  67  84  69 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  66  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  88  69 /   0   0  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  65  89  68 /   0   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  69  76  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290602 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
102 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV AIRPORTS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE BRO
VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT AROUND 45 KNOTS EVIDENT
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS IN THE
OVERNIGHT PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  68  78  70 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          84  67  84  69 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  66  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  88  69 /   0   0  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  65  89  68 /   0   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  69  76  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290602 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
102 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV AIRPORTS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE BRO
VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT AROUND 45 KNOTS EVIDENT
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS IN THE
OVERNIGHT PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  68  78  70 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          84  67  84  69 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  66  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  88  69 /   0   0  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  65  89  68 /   0   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  69  76  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290602 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
102 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV AIRPORTS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE BRO
VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT AROUND 45 KNOTS EVIDENT
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS IN THE
OVERNIGHT PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  68  78  70 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          84  67  84  69 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  66  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  88  69 /   0   0  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  65  89  68 /   0   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  69  76  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 290602 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
102 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING REMAINS VERY DRY WITH A PWAT OF
ONLY 0.51 INCHES WITH A DRY W-WNW FLOW EVIDENT AT AND ABOVE THE
700 MB LEVEL. AT THE LOWER LEVELS A MODERATE TO STRONG PGF FLOW
WILL PREVAIL AS AN ELONGATED COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF THE RGV AIRPORTS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE BRO
VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT AROUND 45 KNOTS EVIDENT
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS IN THE
OVERNIGHT PORTIONS OF THE BRO/HRL AND MFE TAFS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  68  78  70 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          84  67  84  69 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            84  66  85  67 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              86  67  88  69 /   0   0  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  65  89  68 /   0   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  69  76  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63



000
FXUS64 KMAF 290535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with few clouds. Light S/SW wind overnight will come around to the
north during the day as a weak front moves through the area.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 290535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with few clouds. Light S/SW wind overnight will come around to the
north during the day as a weak front moves through the area.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 290535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with few clouds. Light S/SW wind overnight will come around to the
north during the day as a weak front moves through the area.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 290535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with few clouds. Light S/SW wind overnight will come around to the
north during the day as a weak front moves through the area.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 290535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with few clouds. Light S/SW wind overnight will come around to the
north during the day as a weak front moves through the area.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 290535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with few clouds. Light S/SW wind overnight will come around to the
north during the day as a weak front moves through the area.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KEWX 290530 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1230 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
LATEST SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INCREASING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS WITH ALL OF HIRES MODELS INDICATING THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. AROUND 10-12Z SUNDAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS
TO BEGIN LOWERING AS THEY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES. WILL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST AS IS PER PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH A TEMPO GROUP
AT 12-15Z SUN TIME FRAME WITH IFR CIGS FOR KSAT AND KSSF AND
HOLDING OFF FOR NOW AT KAUS. MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE RAPIDLY BY MID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTHTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS PICKING UP LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES AS MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR SKC ONGOING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
OF TEXAS THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
29/09Z WHEN LOW STRATUS APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BKN LOWER CIGS REACHING
KSSF/KSAT NEAR 11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE QUICK MIXING
OCCURS TOWARDS 17Z GIVEN NAM/RAP/HRRR OUTPUT. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FOR IFR CIGS AT KSSF/KSAT 29/12-15Z AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR KAUS. VFR WILL PREVAIL BY 17Z ACROSS THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN WITH SOUTH WINDS 15 KT GUSTING TOWARDS 25-30 KT AT TIMES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A BREEZY AND WARM DAY TODAY SHOULD BE DUPLICATED SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADD TO INCREASED MOISTURE
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE DESPITE A WARMING TREND ON
MORNING LOWS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH A LAYER OF MORNING CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF THE
ESCARPMENT BY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
WIDENS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES...WHILE
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY OF BEST TIMING. THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES
THE SHIFT OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY. THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT. WITH THE OVERALL SLOWING TRENDS OF MODEL
INDICATED PATTERNS...THE ADJUSTMENTS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
THE GFS HAS MADE A MORE DRAMATIC SHIFT TO FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE
FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP WITH A MORE CONSENSUS FRIENDLY ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTING A MIDDAY PASSAGE. WITH LITTLE INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL CAP POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES AT
20 PERCENT...AND SHUN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE
POOLING OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  62  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  61  78  60  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     82  61  79  61  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  60  76  60  77 /   0  -   20  20  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  62  81  64  78 /   0   0  10  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  61  77  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  60  82  62  77 /   0  -   10  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  60  79  61  77 /   0  10  20  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  62  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       82  61  80  62  77 /   0  10  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  60  81  62  77 /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 290530 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1230 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
LATEST SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INCREASING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS WITH ALL OF HIRES MODELS INDICATING THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. AROUND 10-12Z SUNDAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS
TO BEGIN LOWERING AS THEY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES. WILL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST AS IS PER PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH A TEMPO GROUP
AT 12-15Z SUN TIME FRAME WITH IFR CIGS FOR KSAT AND KSSF AND
HOLDING OFF FOR NOW AT KAUS. MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE RAPIDLY BY MID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTHTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS PICKING UP LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES AS MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR SKC ONGOING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
OF TEXAS THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
29/09Z WHEN LOW STRATUS APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BKN LOWER CIGS REACHING
KSSF/KSAT NEAR 11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE QUICK MIXING
OCCURS TOWARDS 17Z GIVEN NAM/RAP/HRRR OUTPUT. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FOR IFR CIGS AT KSSF/KSAT 29/12-15Z AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR KAUS. VFR WILL PREVAIL BY 17Z ACROSS THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN WITH SOUTH WINDS 15 KT GUSTING TOWARDS 25-30 KT AT TIMES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A BREEZY AND WARM DAY TODAY SHOULD BE DUPLICATED SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADD TO INCREASED MOISTURE
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE DESPITE A WARMING TREND ON
MORNING LOWS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH A LAYER OF MORNING CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF THE
ESCARPMENT BY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
WIDENS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES...WHILE
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY OF BEST TIMING. THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES
THE SHIFT OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY. THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT. WITH THE OVERALL SLOWING TRENDS OF MODEL
INDICATED PATTERNS...THE ADJUSTMENTS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
THE GFS HAS MADE A MORE DRAMATIC SHIFT TO FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE
FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP WITH A MORE CONSENSUS FRIENDLY ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTING A MIDDAY PASSAGE. WITH LITTLE INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL CAP POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES AT
20 PERCENT...AND SHUN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE
POOLING OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  62  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  61  78  60  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     82  61  79  61  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  60  76  60  77 /   0  -   20  20  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  62  81  64  78 /   0   0  10  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  61  77  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  60  82  62  77 /   0  -   10  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  60  79  61  77 /   0  10  20  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  62  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       82  61  80  62  77 /   0  10  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  60  81  62  77 /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 290530 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1230 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
LATEST SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INCREASING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS WITH ALL OF HIRES MODELS INDICATING THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. AROUND 10-12Z SUNDAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS
TO BEGIN LOWERING AS THEY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES. WILL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST AS IS PER PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH A TEMPO GROUP
AT 12-15Z SUN TIME FRAME WITH IFR CIGS FOR KSAT AND KSSF AND
HOLDING OFF FOR NOW AT KAUS. MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE RAPIDLY BY MID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTHTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS PICKING UP LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES AS MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR SKC ONGOING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
OF TEXAS THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
29/09Z WHEN LOW STRATUS APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BKN LOWER CIGS REACHING
KSSF/KSAT NEAR 11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE QUICK MIXING
OCCURS TOWARDS 17Z GIVEN NAM/RAP/HRRR OUTPUT. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FOR IFR CIGS AT KSSF/KSAT 29/12-15Z AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR KAUS. VFR WILL PREVAIL BY 17Z ACROSS THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN WITH SOUTH WINDS 15 KT GUSTING TOWARDS 25-30 KT AT TIMES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A BREEZY AND WARM DAY TODAY SHOULD BE DUPLICATED SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADD TO INCREASED MOISTURE
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE DESPITE A WARMING TREND ON
MORNING LOWS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH A LAYER OF MORNING CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF THE
ESCARPMENT BY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
WIDENS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES...WHILE
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY OF BEST TIMING. THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES
THE SHIFT OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY. THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT. WITH THE OVERALL SLOWING TRENDS OF MODEL
INDICATED PATTERNS...THE ADJUSTMENTS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
THE GFS HAS MADE A MORE DRAMATIC SHIFT TO FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE
FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP WITH A MORE CONSENSUS FRIENDLY ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTING A MIDDAY PASSAGE. WITH LITTLE INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL CAP POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES AT
20 PERCENT...AND SHUN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE
POOLING OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  62  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  61  78  60  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     82  61  79  61  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  60  76  60  77 /   0  -   20  20  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  62  81  64  78 /   0   0  10  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  61  77  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  60  82  62  77 /   0  -   10  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  60  79  61  77 /   0  10  20  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  62  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       82  61  80  62  77 /   0  10  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  60  81  62  77 /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 290530 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1230 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
LATEST SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INCREASING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS WITH ALL OF HIRES MODELS INDICATING THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. AROUND 10-12Z SUNDAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS
TO BEGIN LOWERING AS THEY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES. WILL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST AS IS PER PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH A TEMPO GROUP
AT 12-15Z SUN TIME FRAME WITH IFR CIGS FOR KSAT AND KSSF AND
HOLDING OFF FOR NOW AT KAUS. MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE RAPIDLY BY MID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTHTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS PICKING UP LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES AS MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR SKC ONGOING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
OF TEXAS THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
29/09Z WHEN LOW STRATUS APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BKN LOWER CIGS REACHING
KSSF/KSAT NEAR 11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE QUICK MIXING
OCCURS TOWARDS 17Z GIVEN NAM/RAP/HRRR OUTPUT. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FOR IFR CIGS AT KSSF/KSAT 29/12-15Z AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR KAUS. VFR WILL PREVAIL BY 17Z ACROSS THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN WITH SOUTH WINDS 15 KT GUSTING TOWARDS 25-30 KT AT TIMES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A BREEZY AND WARM DAY TODAY SHOULD BE DUPLICATED SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADD TO INCREASED MOISTURE
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE DESPITE A WARMING TREND ON
MORNING LOWS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH A LAYER OF MORNING CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF THE
ESCARPMENT BY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
WIDENS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES...WHILE
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY OF BEST TIMING. THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES
THE SHIFT OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY. THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT. WITH THE OVERALL SLOWING TRENDS OF MODEL
INDICATED PATTERNS...THE ADJUSTMENTS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
THE GFS HAS MADE A MORE DRAMATIC SHIFT TO FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE
FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP WITH A MORE CONSENSUS FRIENDLY ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTING A MIDDAY PASSAGE. WITH LITTLE INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL CAP POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES AT
20 PERCENT...AND SHUN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE
POOLING OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  62  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  61  78  60  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     82  61  79  61  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  60  76  60  77 /   0  -   20  20  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  62  81  64  78 /   0   0  10  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  61  77  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  60  82  62  77 /   0  -   10  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  60  79  61  77 /   0  10  20  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  62  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       82  61  80  62  77 /   0  10  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  60  81  62  77 /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 290530 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1230 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
LATEST SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INCREASING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS WITH ALL OF HIRES MODELS INDICATING THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. AROUND 10-12Z SUNDAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS
TO BEGIN LOWERING AS THEY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES. WILL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST AS IS PER PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH A TEMPO GROUP
AT 12-15Z SUN TIME FRAME WITH IFR CIGS FOR KSAT AND KSSF AND
HOLDING OFF FOR NOW AT KAUS. MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE RAPIDLY BY MID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTHTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS PICKING UP LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES AS MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR SKC ONGOING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
OF TEXAS THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
29/09Z WHEN LOW STRATUS APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BKN LOWER CIGS REACHING
KSSF/KSAT NEAR 11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE QUICK MIXING
OCCURS TOWARDS 17Z GIVEN NAM/RAP/HRRR OUTPUT. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FOR IFR CIGS AT KSSF/KSAT 29/12-15Z AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR KAUS. VFR WILL PREVAIL BY 17Z ACROSS THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN WITH SOUTH WINDS 15 KT GUSTING TOWARDS 25-30 KT AT TIMES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A BREEZY AND WARM DAY TODAY SHOULD BE DUPLICATED SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADD TO INCREASED MOISTURE
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE DESPITE A WARMING TREND ON
MORNING LOWS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH A LAYER OF MORNING CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF THE
ESCARPMENT BY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
WIDENS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES...WHILE
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY OF BEST TIMING. THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES
THE SHIFT OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY. THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT. WITH THE OVERALL SLOWING TRENDS OF MODEL
INDICATED PATTERNS...THE ADJUSTMENTS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
THE GFS HAS MADE A MORE DRAMATIC SHIFT TO FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE
FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP WITH A MORE CONSENSUS FRIENDLY ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTING A MIDDAY PASSAGE. WITH LITTLE INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL CAP POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES AT
20 PERCENT...AND SHUN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE
POOLING OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  62  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  61  78  60  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     82  61  79  61  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  60  76  60  77 /   0  -   20  20  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  62  81  64  78 /   0   0  10  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  61  77  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  60  82  62  77 /   0  -   10  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  60  79  61  77 /   0  10  20  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  62  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       82  61  80  62  77 /   0  10  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  60  81  62  77 /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24




000
FXUS64 KEWX 290530 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1230 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
LATEST SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INCREASING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS WITH ALL OF HIRES MODELS INDICATING THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. AROUND 10-12Z SUNDAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR CIGS
TO BEGIN LOWERING AS THEY APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES. WILL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST AS IS PER PREVIOUS SHIFT WITH A TEMPO GROUP
AT 12-15Z SUN TIME FRAME WITH IFR CIGS FOR KSAT AND KSSF AND
HOLDING OFF FOR NOW AT KAUS. MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE RAPIDLY BY MID
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTHTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS PICKING UP LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CIGS
WILL BECOME IFR ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES AS MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR SKC ONGOING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
OF TEXAS THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
29/09Z WHEN LOW STRATUS APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BKN LOWER CIGS REACHING
KSSF/KSAT NEAR 11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE QUICK MIXING
OCCURS TOWARDS 17Z GIVEN NAM/RAP/HRRR OUTPUT. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FOR IFR CIGS AT KSSF/KSAT 29/12-15Z AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR KAUS. VFR WILL PREVAIL BY 17Z ACROSS THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN WITH SOUTH WINDS 15 KT GUSTING TOWARDS 25-30 KT AT TIMES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A BREEZY AND WARM DAY TODAY SHOULD BE DUPLICATED SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADD TO INCREASED MOISTURE
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE DESPITE A WARMING TREND ON
MORNING LOWS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH A LAYER OF MORNING CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF THE
ESCARPMENT BY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
WIDENS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES...WHILE
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY OF BEST TIMING. THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES
THE SHIFT OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY. THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT. WITH THE OVERALL SLOWING TRENDS OF MODEL
INDICATED PATTERNS...THE ADJUSTMENTS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
THE GFS HAS MADE A MORE DRAMATIC SHIFT TO FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE
FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP WITH A MORE CONSENSUS FRIENDLY ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTING A MIDDAY PASSAGE. WITH LITTLE INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL CAP POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES AT
20 PERCENT...AND SHUN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE
POOLING OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  62  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  61  78  60  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     82  61  79  61  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  60  76  60  77 /   0  -   20  20  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  62  81  64  78 /   0   0  10  30  40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  61  77  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  60  82  62  77 /   0  -   10  20  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        82  60  79  61  77 /   0  10  20  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  62  79  62  78 /   0  10  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       82  61  80  62  77 /   0  10  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  60  81  62  77 /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24



000
FXUS64 KCRP 290506
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS DVLPG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND. THE MAIN ISSUE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  83  68  80  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
VICTORIA          64  82  65  81  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
LAREDO            65  89  69  83  65  /   0   0  10  40  40
ALICE             65  86  67  82  67  /  10  10  10  40  50
ROCKPORT          67  80  68  79  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
COTULLA           64  87  66  81  64  /   0   0  10  40  50
KINGSVILLE        66  85  68  82  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       68  80  69  78  66  /  10  10  10  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 290506
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS DVLPG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND. THE MAIN ISSUE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  83  68  80  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
VICTORIA          64  82  65  81  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
LAREDO            65  89  69  83  65  /   0   0  10  40  40
ALICE             65  86  67  82  67  /  10  10  10  40  50
ROCKPORT          67  80  68  79  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
COTULLA           64  87  66  81  64  /   0   0  10  40  50
KINGSVILLE        66  85  68  82  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       68  80  69  78  66  /  10  10  10  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 290506
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS DVLPG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND. THE MAIN ISSUE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  83  68  80  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
VICTORIA          64  82  65  81  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
LAREDO            65  89  69  83  65  /   0   0  10  40  40
ALICE             65  86  67  82  67  /  10  10  10  40  50
ROCKPORT          67  80  68  79  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
COTULLA           64  87  66  81  64  /   0   0  10  40  50
KINGSVILLE        66  85  68  82  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       68  80  69  78  66  /  10  10  10  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 290506
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS DVLPG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND. THE MAIN ISSUE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  83  68  80  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
VICTORIA          64  82  65  81  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
LAREDO            65  89  69  83  65  /   0   0  10  40  40
ALICE             65  86  67  82  67  /  10  10  10  40  50
ROCKPORT          67  80  68  79  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
COTULLA           64  87  66  81  64  /   0   0  10  40  50
KINGSVILLE        66  85  68  82  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       68  80  69  78  66  /  10  10  10  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 290506
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS DVLPG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND. THE MAIN ISSUE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  83  68  80  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
VICTORIA          64  82  65  81  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
LAREDO            65  89  69  83  65  /   0   0  10  40  40
ALICE             65  86  67  82  67  /  10  10  10  40  50
ROCKPORT          67  80  68  79  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
COTULLA           64  87  66  81  64  /   0   0  10  40  50
KINGSVILLE        66  85  68  82  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       68  80  69  78  66  /  10  10  10  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 290506
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS DVLPG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND. THE MAIN ISSUE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  83  68  80  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
VICTORIA          64  82  65  81  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
LAREDO            65  89  69  83  65  /   0   0  10  40  40
ALICE             65  86  67  82  67  /  10  10  10  40  50
ROCKPORT          67  80  68  79  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
COTULLA           64  87  66  81  64  /   0   0  10  40  50
KINGSVILLE        66  85  68  82  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       68  80  69  78  66  /  10  10  10  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 290506
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS DVLPG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND. THE MAIN ISSUE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  83  68  80  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
VICTORIA          64  82  65  81  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
LAREDO            65  89  69  83  65  /   0   0  10  40  40
ALICE             65  86  67  82  67  /  10  10  10  40  50
ROCKPORT          67  80  68  79  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
COTULLA           64  87  66  81  64  /   0   0  10  40  50
KINGSVILLE        66  85  68  82  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       68  80  69  78  66  /  10  10  10  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 290506
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS DVLPG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND. THE MAIN ISSUE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  83  68  80  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
VICTORIA          64  82  65  81  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
LAREDO            65  89  69  83  65  /   0   0  10  40  40
ALICE             65  86  67  82  67  /  10  10  10  40  50
ROCKPORT          67  80  68  79  66  /  10  10  10  30  50
COTULLA           64  87  66  81  64  /   0   0  10  40  50
KINGSVILLE        66  85  68  82  67  /  10  10  10  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       68  80  69  78  66  /  10  10  10  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KLUB 290452 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
PREVIOUS THINKING CONTINUES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE MORNING BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WIND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEED WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE TAF SITES...WIND WILL SWING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED
TO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  73  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         47  75  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  76  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  80  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  80  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  86  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  84  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     55  89  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14



000
FXUS64 KLUB 290452 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
PREVIOUS THINKING CONTINUES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE MORNING BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WIND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEED WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE TAF SITES...WIND WILL SWING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED
TO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  73  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         47  75  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  76  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  80  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  80  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  86  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  84  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     55  89  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14



000
FXUS64 KLUB 290452 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
PREVIOUS THINKING CONTINUES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE MORNING BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WIND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEED WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE TAF SITES...WIND WILL SWING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED
TO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  73  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         47  75  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  76  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  80  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  80  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  86  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  84  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     55  89  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14



000
FXUS64 KLUB 290452 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
PREVIOUS THINKING CONTINUES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE MORNING BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WIND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEED WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE TAF SITES...WIND WILL SWING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED
TO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  73  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         47  75  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  76  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  80  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  80  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  86  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  84  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     55  89  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14



000
FXUS64 KLUB 290452 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
PREVIOUS THINKING CONTINUES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE MORNING BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WIND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEED WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE TAF SITES...WIND WILL SWING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED
TO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  73  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         47  75  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  76  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  80  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  80  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  86  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  84  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     55  89  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14




000
FXUS64 KLUB 290452 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
PREVIOUS THINKING CONTINUES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE MORNING BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WIND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEED WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE TAF SITES...WIND WILL SWING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED
TO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  73  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         47  75  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  76  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  80  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  80  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  86  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  84  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     55  89  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14



000
FXUS64 KHGX 290450
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1150 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR BUT WIND AN ISSUE. HGX VWP AND HRRR SHOWING A JET JUST OFF THE
DECK AT 1200-1400FT AROUND 35-40KTS BUT THIS WILL SHIFT NORTH
TOWARD THE UTS/CLL AREA OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS IN ALL
OF THE INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 14-15Z WHEN DEEPER MIXING OCCURS.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A RAPID MOISTENING AROUND 15-2000FT BUT FOR A
FEW HOURS 12-15Z...WILL CARRY FEW/SCT020 AROUND THIS WINDOW BUT
EXPECTING IT TO BE SHORT LIVED AS MIXING INCREASE AND LAYER DRIES
OUT.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING BUT ARE PRO-
CEEDING ALONG OTHERWISE. THIS DECREASE OF SFC WINDS ALONG WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES
WITH THE THINKING THAT THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC (FROM
HGX VAD - SW @ 30-40KTS) TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
RADIATIONAL FOG VS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT FCST HAS
THIS COVERED SO NO SIGNIFICANT TWEAKS WITH THIS UPDATE. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR. SSW WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY DRY
PROFILE AND MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AND MIXED
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. DON`T EXPECT ANY LARGE AREAS OF ST OR FOG.
PERHAPS A BIT OF MIFG AT CXO BUT THINK IT IS TOO DRY. NAM AND GFS
SEEM FAR TO OVERDONE WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THEN INCREASE TOMORROW TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY PRIMARILY FROM 180-190. SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY WITH GULF SKIES THAT ARE CLEAR NOW SO AM ONLY EXPECTING
FEW/SCT 2000-2500FT LATE IN THE MORNING.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO
BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
STRONG. AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT...FEEL THE AIR WILL
SATURATE AND CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER FOR A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 10-15Z
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WARM A BIT ON
SUNDAY AND COUPLED WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S. ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE
AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TOWARD THE SURFACE. CLOUDS RETURN AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LINGER MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS SE TX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ON MONDAY
BUT ALSO SHOW A SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE CAP. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME WEAK SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF CLOSER
TO THE DISTURBANCE. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TOO DRY WITH PW VALUES
ONLY REACHING 1.10 INCHES. CAPPING LOOKS WEAKER BUT THE MEAGER
MOISTURE LEVELS AND VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 850 MB SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY CARRY 20 POPS FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH SE TX ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING AND QPF
OUTPUT WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER...DRIER AND OVERALL JUST MORE
BENIGN. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH BETTER JET DYNAMICS WITH SE TX LYING IN
A LFQ WHILE THE GFS PLACES SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF THE JET.
PW VALUES ALSO DIFFER WITH THE GFS PW VALUES AT 1.3O INCHES WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS VALUES REACHING 1.60 INCHES. THE ECMWF SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB WHILE THE
GFS DOES NOT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EC SINCE THE CANADIAN NOW
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF AND THE EC HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST 3-4 DAYS. BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT ON THU/FRI WILL BE W-SW BECOMING MORE SW WITH TIME.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW USUALLY KEEPS THINGS CLOUDY WITH SCT SHRA AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA. YET FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AND MEAGER PWATS. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR THU/FRI BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MAYBE
LOWISH POPS ARE NEEDED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX NEXT
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      56  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 290450
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1150 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR BUT WIND AN ISSUE. HGX VWP AND HRRR SHOWING A JET JUST OFF THE
DECK AT 1200-1400FT AROUND 35-40KTS BUT THIS WILL SHIFT NORTH
TOWARD THE UTS/CLL AREA OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS IN ALL
OF THE INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 14-15Z WHEN DEEPER MIXING OCCURS.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A RAPID MOISTENING AROUND 15-2000FT BUT FOR A
FEW HOURS 12-15Z...WILL CARRY FEW/SCT020 AROUND THIS WINDOW BUT
EXPECTING IT TO BE SHORT LIVED AS MIXING INCREASE AND LAYER DRIES
OUT.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING BUT ARE PRO-
CEEDING ALONG OTHERWISE. THIS DECREASE OF SFC WINDS ALONG WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES
WITH THE THINKING THAT THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC (FROM
HGX VAD - SW @ 30-40KTS) TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
RADIATIONAL FOG VS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT FCST HAS
THIS COVERED SO NO SIGNIFICANT TWEAKS WITH THIS UPDATE. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR. SSW WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY DRY
PROFILE AND MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AND MIXED
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. DON`T EXPECT ANY LARGE AREAS OF ST OR FOG.
PERHAPS A BIT OF MIFG AT CXO BUT THINK IT IS TOO DRY. NAM AND GFS
SEEM FAR TO OVERDONE WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THEN INCREASE TOMORROW TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY PRIMARILY FROM 180-190. SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY WITH GULF SKIES THAT ARE CLEAR NOW SO AM ONLY EXPECTING
FEW/SCT 2000-2500FT LATE IN THE MORNING.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO
BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
STRONG. AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT...FEEL THE AIR WILL
SATURATE AND CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER FOR A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 10-15Z
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WARM A BIT ON
SUNDAY AND COUPLED WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S. ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE
AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TOWARD THE SURFACE. CLOUDS RETURN AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LINGER MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS SE TX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ON MONDAY
BUT ALSO SHOW A SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE CAP. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME WEAK SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF CLOSER
TO THE DISTURBANCE. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TOO DRY WITH PW VALUES
ONLY REACHING 1.10 INCHES. CAPPING LOOKS WEAKER BUT THE MEAGER
MOISTURE LEVELS AND VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 850 MB SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY CARRY 20 POPS FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH SE TX ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING AND QPF
OUTPUT WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER...DRIER AND OVERALL JUST MORE
BENIGN. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH BETTER JET DYNAMICS WITH SE TX LYING IN
A LFQ WHILE THE GFS PLACES SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF THE JET.
PW VALUES ALSO DIFFER WITH THE GFS PW VALUES AT 1.3O INCHES WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS VALUES REACHING 1.60 INCHES. THE ECMWF SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB WHILE THE
GFS DOES NOT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EC SINCE THE CANADIAN NOW
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF AND THE EC HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST 3-4 DAYS. BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT ON THU/FRI WILL BE W-SW BECOMING MORE SW WITH TIME.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW USUALLY KEEPS THINGS CLOUDY WITH SCT SHRA AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA. YET FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AND MEAGER PWATS. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR THU/FRI BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MAYBE
LOWISH POPS ARE NEEDED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX NEXT
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      56  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45



000
FXUS64 KSJT 290439
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1139 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across the terminals the next 24
hours. Expect an increase in south and southwest winds again on
Sunday. A weak cold front will move across the northern terminals
early Sunday evening, shifting winds to the north in its wake.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across the terminals the next 24
hours. South to southwest winds will diminish this evening but
increase again on Sunday. A cold front will approach the KABI
terminal towards the end of the forecast period, with winds
shifting to the north after 23Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Temperatures across west central Texas have warmed into the lower
to middle 80s at mid-afternoon. Shortwave upper ridge over the
Desert Southwest will shift east into Texas on Sunday. With south-
southwest low-level flow, our above normal temperatures will
continue, and to a greater extent on Sunday. Wind speeds will
decrease this evening, but should have some increase overnight in
the favored areas near/downstream of the higher terrain with low-
level jet developing. Overnight low temperatures are expected to
range from around 50 along the I-10 corridor, to the upper
50s/near 60 degrees in our northern counties.

With an upper trough moving southeast across the upper Midwest on
Sunday, trailing portion of associated cold front will move south
into our far north and northwest counties by early Sunday evening.
Strong 850mb thermal ridging pattern is indicated just ahead of
this front with compressional warming effects. With this pattern
and sunny skies, temperatures are expected to soar into the lower
90s for highs across much of the Big Country and Concho Valley
areas (including Abilene, Sweetwater, Ballinger and San Angelo),
with mid-90s possible at a few locations. Having mentioned this,
the record highs for Sunday (96 degrees at Abilene and 97 at San
Angelo) look safe and are expected to hold. South-southwest winds
will continue ahead of the front. Winds will shift to the north
with the frontal passage late in the day across the far
north/northwest part of our area (Haskell, Throckmorton, Fisher
and Jones Counties).

19

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

An upper level trough is currently in place over the eastern U.
S. with a ridge breaking down over the western states, and Texas
under northwest flow. There is a compact upper level low west of
the southern California coast.

As the upper level low out over the Pacific approaches the area
Monday night into Tuesday, rain chances will come into the picture.
Both the GFS and ECMWF weaken the low, flattening it into an open
wave. However, the GFS suppresses the best lift to our south, and
the ECMWF is more amplified with the system as a whole. Thus, the
ECMWF leads to more synoptic lift, and better rain chances/higher
rainfall amounts for our area than does the GFS. Trends remained
generally similar to previous models runs, bringing in rain
chances Monday night into Tuesday, so no significant changes were
made to the forecast, keep at least slight chances in from Monday
night through Tuesday night.

The GFS develops a large trough across the western U. S. at the
end of the week with southwest flow over Texas. A shortwave will
move across the central plains region Thursday night into Friday,
sending a cold front into Texas. The GFS develops precipitation
Saturday into Saturday night across the area associated with
shortwave impulses embedded in the southwest flow, and the cold
front entering the area. While this can`t be ruled out, timing
these shortwaves and cold fronts 6 to 7 days in advance is very
tricky, so have not gone higher than slight chance PoPs at the end
of the forecast. Temperatures behind the cold front Saturday look
to be significantly cooler, with highs only in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees.

In between these two potential rain chances, zonal flow and a
strengthening low level thermal ridge will lead to warming
temperatures through the middle of the work week. Medium range MOS
guidance from the GFS warms San Angelo into the upper 90s, and
Abilene into the mid to upper 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. And
although we should bounce back quickly from the cold front that
moves through the area Sunday night/Monday morning, we are not
expecting mid to upper 90s by the second half of the week, and
have tempered highs significantly from the very warm MEX numbers.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  92  53  77  59 /   0   0   0  10  20
San Angelo  56  94  53  80  60 /   0   0   0   5  20
Junction  52  87  54  80  60 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24





000
FXUS64 KSJT 290439
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1139 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across the terminals the next 24
hours. Expect an increase in south and southwest winds again on
Sunday. A weak cold front will move across the northern terminals
early Sunday evening, shifting winds to the north in its wake.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across the terminals the next 24
hours. South to southwest winds will diminish this evening but
increase again on Sunday. A cold front will approach the KABI
terminal towards the end of the forecast period, with winds
shifting to the north after 23Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Temperatures across west central Texas have warmed into the lower
to middle 80s at mid-afternoon. Shortwave upper ridge over the
Desert Southwest will shift east into Texas on Sunday. With south-
southwest low-level flow, our above normal temperatures will
continue, and to a greater extent on Sunday. Wind speeds will
decrease this evening, but should have some increase overnight in
the favored areas near/downstream of the higher terrain with low-
level jet developing. Overnight low temperatures are expected to
range from around 50 along the I-10 corridor, to the upper
50s/near 60 degrees in our northern counties.

With an upper trough moving southeast across the upper Midwest on
Sunday, trailing portion of associated cold front will move south
into our far north and northwest counties by early Sunday evening.
Strong 850mb thermal ridging pattern is indicated just ahead of
this front with compressional warming effects. With this pattern
and sunny skies, temperatures are expected to soar into the lower
90s for highs across much of the Big Country and Concho Valley
areas (including Abilene, Sweetwater, Ballinger and San Angelo),
with mid-90s possible at a few locations. Having mentioned this,
the record highs for Sunday (96 degrees at Abilene and 97 at San
Angelo) look safe and are expected to hold. South-southwest winds
will continue ahead of the front. Winds will shift to the north
with the frontal passage late in the day across the far
north/northwest part of our area (Haskell, Throckmorton, Fisher
and Jones Counties).

19

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

An upper level trough is currently in place over the eastern U.
S. with a ridge breaking down over the western states, and Texas
under northwest flow. There is a compact upper level low west of
the southern California coast.

As the upper level low out over the Pacific approaches the area
Monday night into Tuesday, rain chances will come into the picture.
Both the GFS and ECMWF weaken the low, flattening it into an open
wave. However, the GFS suppresses the best lift to our south, and
the ECMWF is more amplified with the system as a whole. Thus, the
ECMWF leads to more synoptic lift, and better rain chances/higher
rainfall amounts for our area than does the GFS. Trends remained
generally similar to previous models runs, bringing in rain
chances Monday night into Tuesday, so no significant changes were
made to the forecast, keep at least slight chances in from Monday
night through Tuesday night.

The GFS develops a large trough across the western U. S. at the
end of the week with southwest flow over Texas. A shortwave will
move across the central plains region Thursday night into Friday,
sending a cold front into Texas. The GFS develops precipitation
Saturday into Saturday night across the area associated with
shortwave impulses embedded in the southwest flow, and the cold
front entering the area. While this can`t be ruled out, timing
these shortwaves and cold fronts 6 to 7 days in advance is very
tricky, so have not gone higher than slight chance PoPs at the end
of the forecast. Temperatures behind the cold front Saturday look
to be significantly cooler, with highs only in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees.

In between these two potential rain chances, zonal flow and a
strengthening low level thermal ridge will lead to warming
temperatures through the middle of the work week. Medium range MOS
guidance from the GFS warms San Angelo into the upper 90s, and
Abilene into the mid to upper 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. And
although we should bounce back quickly from the cold front that
moves through the area Sunday night/Monday morning, we are not
expecting mid to upper 90s by the second half of the week, and
have tempered highs significantly from the very warm MEX numbers.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  92  53  77  59 /   0   0   0  10  20
San Angelo  56  94  53  80  60 /   0   0   0   5  20
Junction  52  87  54  80  60 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 290439
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1139 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across the terminals the next 24
hours. Expect an increase in south and southwest winds again on
Sunday. A weak cold front will move across the northern terminals
early Sunday evening, shifting winds to the north in its wake.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across the terminals the next 24
hours. South to southwest winds will diminish this evening but
increase again on Sunday. A cold front will approach the KABI
terminal towards the end of the forecast period, with winds
shifting to the north after 23Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Temperatures across west central Texas have warmed into the lower
to middle 80s at mid-afternoon. Shortwave upper ridge over the
Desert Southwest will shift east into Texas on Sunday. With south-
southwest low-level flow, our above normal temperatures will
continue, and to a greater extent on Sunday. Wind speeds will
decrease this evening, but should have some increase overnight in
the favored areas near/downstream of the higher terrain with low-
level jet developing. Overnight low temperatures are expected to
range from around 50 along the I-10 corridor, to the upper
50s/near 60 degrees in our northern counties.

With an upper trough moving southeast across the upper Midwest on
Sunday, trailing portion of associated cold front will move south
into our far north and northwest counties by early Sunday evening.
Strong 850mb thermal ridging pattern is indicated just ahead of
this front with compressional warming effects. With this pattern
and sunny skies, temperatures are expected to soar into the lower
90s for highs across much of the Big Country and Concho Valley
areas (including Abilene, Sweetwater, Ballinger and San Angelo),
with mid-90s possible at a few locations. Having mentioned this,
the record highs for Sunday (96 degrees at Abilene and 97 at San
Angelo) look safe and are expected to hold. South-southwest winds
will continue ahead of the front. Winds will shift to the north
with the frontal passage late in the day across the far
north/northwest part of our area (Haskell, Throckmorton, Fisher
and Jones Counties).

19

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

An upper level trough is currently in place over the eastern U.
S. with a ridge breaking down over the western states, and Texas
under northwest flow. There is a compact upper level low west of
the southern California coast.

As the upper level low out over the Pacific approaches the area
Monday night into Tuesday, rain chances will come into the picture.
Both the GFS and ECMWF weaken the low, flattening it into an open
wave. However, the GFS suppresses the best lift to our south, and
the ECMWF is more amplified with the system as a whole. Thus, the
ECMWF leads to more synoptic lift, and better rain chances/higher
rainfall amounts for our area than does the GFS. Trends remained
generally similar to previous models runs, bringing in rain
chances Monday night into Tuesday, so no significant changes were
made to the forecast, keep at least slight chances in from Monday
night through Tuesday night.

The GFS develops a large trough across the western U. S. at the
end of the week with southwest flow over Texas. A shortwave will
move across the central plains region Thursday night into Friday,
sending a cold front into Texas. The GFS develops precipitation
Saturday into Saturday night across the area associated with
shortwave impulses embedded in the southwest flow, and the cold
front entering the area. While this can`t be ruled out, timing
these shortwaves and cold fronts 6 to 7 days in advance is very
tricky, so have not gone higher than slight chance PoPs at the end
of the forecast. Temperatures behind the cold front Saturday look
to be significantly cooler, with highs only in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees.

In between these two potential rain chances, zonal flow and a
strengthening low level thermal ridge will lead to warming
temperatures through the middle of the work week. Medium range MOS
guidance from the GFS warms San Angelo into the upper 90s, and
Abilene into the mid to upper 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. And
although we should bounce back quickly from the cold front that
moves through the area Sunday night/Monday morning, we are not
expecting mid to upper 90s by the second half of the week, and
have tempered highs significantly from the very warm MEX numbers.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  92  53  77  59 /   0   0   0  10  20
San Angelo  56  94  53  80  60 /   0   0   0   5  20
Junction  52  87  54  80  60 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24





000
FXUS64 KSJT 290439
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1139 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across the terminals the next 24
hours. Expect an increase in south and southwest winds again on
Sunday. A weak cold front will move across the northern terminals
early Sunday evening, shifting winds to the north in its wake.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across the terminals the next 24
hours. South to southwest winds will diminish this evening but
increase again on Sunday. A cold front will approach the KABI
terminal towards the end of the forecast period, with winds
shifting to the north after 23Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Temperatures across west central Texas have warmed into the lower
to middle 80s at mid-afternoon. Shortwave upper ridge over the
Desert Southwest will shift east into Texas on Sunday. With south-
southwest low-level flow, our above normal temperatures will
continue, and to a greater extent on Sunday. Wind speeds will
decrease this evening, but should have some increase overnight in
the favored areas near/downstream of the higher terrain with low-
level jet developing. Overnight low temperatures are expected to
range from around 50 along the I-10 corridor, to the upper
50s/near 60 degrees in our northern counties.

With an upper trough moving southeast across the upper Midwest on
Sunday, trailing portion of associated cold front will move south
into our far north and northwest counties by early Sunday evening.
Strong 850mb thermal ridging pattern is indicated just ahead of
this front with compressional warming effects. With this pattern
and sunny skies, temperatures are expected to soar into the lower
90s for highs across much of the Big Country and Concho Valley
areas (including Abilene, Sweetwater, Ballinger and San Angelo),
with mid-90s possible at a few locations. Having mentioned this,
the record highs for Sunday (96 degrees at Abilene and 97 at San
Angelo) look safe and are expected to hold. South-southwest winds
will continue ahead of the front. Winds will shift to the north
with the frontal passage late in the day across the far
north/northwest part of our area (Haskell, Throckmorton, Fisher
and Jones Counties).

19

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

An upper level trough is currently in place over the eastern U.
S. with a ridge breaking down over the western states, and Texas
under northwest flow. There is a compact upper level low west of
the southern California coast.

As the upper level low out over the Pacific approaches the area
Monday night into Tuesday, rain chances will come into the picture.
Both the GFS and ECMWF weaken the low, flattening it into an open
wave. However, the GFS suppresses the best lift to our south, and
the ECMWF is more amplified with the system as a whole. Thus, the
ECMWF leads to more synoptic lift, and better rain chances/higher
rainfall amounts for our area than does the GFS. Trends remained
generally similar to previous models runs, bringing in rain
chances Monday night into Tuesday, so no significant changes were
made to the forecast, keep at least slight chances in from Monday
night through Tuesday night.

The GFS develops a large trough across the western U. S. at the
end of the week with southwest flow over Texas. A shortwave will
move across the central plains region Thursday night into Friday,
sending a cold front into Texas. The GFS develops precipitation
Saturday into Saturday night across the area associated with
shortwave impulses embedded in the southwest flow, and the cold
front entering the area. While this can`t be ruled out, timing
these shortwaves and cold fronts 6 to 7 days in advance is very
tricky, so have not gone higher than slight chance PoPs at the end
of the forecast. Temperatures behind the cold front Saturday look
to be significantly cooler, with highs only in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees.

In between these two potential rain chances, zonal flow and a
strengthening low level thermal ridge will lead to warming
temperatures through the middle of the work week. Medium range MOS
guidance from the GFS warms San Angelo into the upper 90s, and
Abilene into the mid to upper 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. And
although we should bounce back quickly from the cold front that
moves through the area Sunday night/Monday morning, we are not
expecting mid to upper 90s by the second half of the week, and
have tempered highs significantly from the very warm MEX numbers.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  92  53  77  59 /   0   0   0  10  20
San Angelo  56  94  53  80  60 /   0   0   0   5  20
Junction  52  87  54  80  60 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24






000
FXUS64 KFWD 290414
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1114 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WE WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF
AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
8 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID MORNING SUNDAY AS VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENSUES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 14 AND 18 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE
BY SUNSET SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RED RIVER AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEAKENS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74  63 /   0   5  30  20  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76  62 /   0   5  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71  58 /   0   5  40  30  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73  61 /   0   5  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72  62 /   0   5  30  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74  63 /   0   5  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73  61 /   0   5  30  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75  61 /   0   5  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76  62 /   0   5  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 290414
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1114 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WE WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF
AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
8 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID MORNING SUNDAY AS VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENSUES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 14 AND 18 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE
BY SUNSET SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RED RIVER AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEAKENS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74  63 /   0   5  30  20  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76  62 /   0   5  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71  58 /   0   5  40  30  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73  61 /   0   5  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72  62 /   0   5  30  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74  63 /   0   5  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73  61 /   0   5  30  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75  61 /   0   5  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76  62 /   0   5  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 290414
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1114 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WE WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF
AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
8 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID MORNING SUNDAY AS VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENSUES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 14 AND 18 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE
BY SUNSET SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RED RIVER AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEAKENS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74  63 /   0   5  30  20  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76  62 /   0   5  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71  58 /   0   5  40  30  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73  61 /   0   5  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72  62 /   0   5  30  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74  63 /   0   5  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73  61 /   0   5  30  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75  61 /   0   5  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76  62 /   0   5  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 290414
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1114 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WE WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF
AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
8 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID MORNING SUNDAY AS VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENSUES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 14 AND 18 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE
BY SUNSET SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RED RIVER AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEAKENS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74  63 /   0   5  30  20  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76  62 /   0   5  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71  58 /   0   5  40  30  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73  61 /   0   5  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72  62 /   0   5  30  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74  63 /   0   5  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73  61 /   0   5  30  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75  61 /   0   5  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76  62 /   0   5  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 290414
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1114 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WE WILL
INTRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF
AROUND 10Z MONDAY MORNING.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS BETWEEN
8 AND 13 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MID MORNING SUNDAY AS VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ENSUES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 14 AND 18 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE
BY SUNSET SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE RED RIVER AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEAKENS.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74  63 /   0   5  30  20  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76  62 /   0   5  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71  58 /   0   5  40  30  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73  61 /   0   5  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72  62 /   0   5  30  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74  63 /   0   5  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73  61 /   0   5  30  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75  61 /   0   5  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76  62 /   0   5  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KAMA 290351
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1051 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING. HI-RES MODELS HAVE
INDICATED THE FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN EXPECTED
SO HAVE UPPED TIMING AT EACH TERMINAL. BY 15Z TOMORROW THE FRONT WILL
BE THROUGH ALL THE TERMINALS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
AT 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT. A LITTLE AFTER 00Z MONDAY THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND START TO VEER AROUND THE DIAL TOWARDS THE EAST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELDS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED AS ONLY WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WAS PRESENT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A PERIOD OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH RESULTED IN STRONGER
WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN FIELDS. ANY BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
MEAN WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES...ORGANIZED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD HAPPEN PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
POSITION OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.

CONFIDENCE IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES EVOLVE MID WEEK IS A LITTLE LESS
THEN DESIRABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK
LEE LOW TO EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH STRONGER LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 290351
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1051 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING. HI-RES MODELS HAVE
INDICATED THE FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN EXPECTED
SO HAVE UPPED TIMING AT EACH TERMINAL. BY 15Z TOMORROW THE FRONT WILL
BE THROUGH ALL THE TERMINALS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
AT 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT. A LITTLE AFTER 00Z MONDAY THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND START TO VEER AROUND THE DIAL TOWARDS THE EAST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELDS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED AS ONLY WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WAS PRESENT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A PERIOD OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH RESULTED IN STRONGER
WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN FIELDS. ANY BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
MEAN WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES...ORGANIZED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD HAPPEN PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
POSITION OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.

CONFIDENCE IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES EVOLVE MID WEEK IS A LITTLE LESS
THEN DESIRABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK
LEE LOW TO EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH STRONGER LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 290351
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1051 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING. HI-RES MODELS HAVE
INDICATED THE FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN EXPECTED
SO HAVE UPPED TIMING AT EACH TERMINAL. BY 15Z TOMORROW THE FRONT WILL
BE THROUGH ALL THE TERMINALS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH
AT 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT. A LITTLE AFTER 00Z MONDAY THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND START TO VEER AROUND THE DIAL TOWARDS THE EAST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELDS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED AS ONLY WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WAS PRESENT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A PERIOD OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH RESULTED IN STRONGER
WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN FIELDS. ANY BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
MEAN WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES...ORGANIZED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD HAPPEN PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
POSITION OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.

CONFIDENCE IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES EVOLVE MID WEEK IS A LITTLE LESS
THEN DESIRABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK
LEE LOW TO EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH STRONGER LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15






000
FXUS64 KHGX 290310
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1010 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING BUT ARE PRO-
CEEDING ALONG OTHERWISE. THIS DECREASE OF SFC WINDS ALONG WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES
WITH THE THINKING THAT THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC (FROM
HGX VAD - SW @ 30-40KTS) TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
RADIATIONAL FOG VS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT FCST HAS
THIS COVERED SO NO SIGNIFICANT TWEAKS WITH THIS UPDATE. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR. SSW WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY DRY
PROFILE AND MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AND MIXED
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. DON`T EXPECT ANY LARGE AREAS OF ST OR FOG.
PERHAPS A BIT OF MIFG AT CXO BUT THINK IT IS TOO DRY. NAM AND GFS
SEEM FAR TO OVERDONE WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THEN INCREASE TOMORROW TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY PRIMARILY FROM 180-190. SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY WITH GULF SKIES THAT ARE CLEAR NOW SO AM ONLY EXPECTING
FEW/SCT 2000-2500FT LATE IN THE MORNING.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO
BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
STRONG. AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT...FEEL THE AIR WILL
SATURATE AND CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER FOR A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 10-15Z
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WARM A BIT ON
SUNDAY AND COUPLED WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S. ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE
AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TOWARD THE SURFACE. CLOUDS RETURN AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LINGER MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS SE TX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ON MONDAY
BUT ALSO SHOW A SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE CAP. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME WEAK SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF CLOSER
TO THE DISTURBANCE. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TOO DRY WITH PW VALUES
ONLY REACHING 1.10 INCHES. CAPPING LOOKS WEAKER BUT THE MEAGER
MOISTURE LEVELS AND VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 850 MB SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY CARRY 20 POPS FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH SE TX ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING AND QPF
OUTPUT WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER...DRIER AND OVERALL JUST MORE
BENIGN. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH BETTER JET DYNAMICS WITH SE TX LYING IN
A LFQ WHILE THE GFS PLACES SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF THE JET.
PW VALUES ALSO DIFFER WITH THE GFS PW VALUES AT 1.3O INCHES WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS VALUES REACHING 1.60 INCHES. THE ECMWF SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB WHILE THE
GFS DOES NOT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EC SINCE THE CANADIAN NOW
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF AND THE EC HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST 3-4 DAYS. BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT ON THU/FRI WILL BE W-SW BECOMING MORE SW WITH TIME.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW USUALLY KEEPS THINGS CLOUDY WITH SCT SHRA AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA. YET FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AND MEAGER PWATS. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR THU/FRI BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MAYBE
LOWISH POPS ARE NEEDED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX NEXT
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      56  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 290310
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1010 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING BUT ARE PRO-
CEEDING ALONG OTHERWISE. THIS DECREASE OF SFC WINDS ALONG WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES
WITH THE THINKING THAT THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC (FROM
HGX VAD - SW @ 30-40KTS) TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
RADIATIONAL FOG VS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT FCST HAS
THIS COVERED SO NO SIGNIFICANT TWEAKS WITH THIS UPDATE. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR. SSW WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY DRY
PROFILE AND MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AND MIXED
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. DON`T EXPECT ANY LARGE AREAS OF ST OR FOG.
PERHAPS A BIT OF MIFG AT CXO BUT THINK IT IS TOO DRY. NAM AND GFS
SEEM FAR TO OVERDONE WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THEN INCREASE TOMORROW TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY PRIMARILY FROM 180-190. SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY WITH GULF SKIES THAT ARE CLEAR NOW SO AM ONLY EXPECTING
FEW/SCT 2000-2500FT LATE IN THE MORNING.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO
BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
STRONG. AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT...FEEL THE AIR WILL
SATURATE AND CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER FOR A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 10-15Z
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WARM A BIT ON
SUNDAY AND COUPLED WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S. ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE
AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TOWARD THE SURFACE. CLOUDS RETURN AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LINGER MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS SE TX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ON MONDAY
BUT ALSO SHOW A SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE CAP. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME WEAK SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF CLOSER
TO THE DISTURBANCE. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TOO DRY WITH PW VALUES
ONLY REACHING 1.10 INCHES. CAPPING LOOKS WEAKER BUT THE MEAGER
MOISTURE LEVELS AND VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 850 MB SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY CARRY 20 POPS FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH SE TX ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING AND QPF
OUTPUT WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER...DRIER AND OVERALL JUST MORE
BENIGN. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH BETTER JET DYNAMICS WITH SE TX LYING IN
A LFQ WHILE THE GFS PLACES SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF THE JET.
PW VALUES ALSO DIFFER WITH THE GFS PW VALUES AT 1.3O INCHES WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS VALUES REACHING 1.60 INCHES. THE ECMWF SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB WHILE THE
GFS DOES NOT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EC SINCE THE CANADIAN NOW
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF AND THE EC HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST 3-4 DAYS. BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT ON THU/FRI WILL BE W-SW BECOMING MORE SW WITH TIME.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW USUALLY KEEPS THINGS CLOUDY WITH SCT SHRA AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA. YET FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AND MEAGER PWATS. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR THU/FRI BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MAYBE
LOWISH POPS ARE NEEDED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX NEXT
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      56  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 290016 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE NEXT 24 HOURS...STORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE JUST NORTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...APPEARS ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR METROPLEX SITES
WOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74 /   0   0  30  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76 /   0   0  10  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71 /   0  10  40  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73 /   0   0  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72 /   0   0  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74 /   0   0  30  30
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73 /   0   0  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75 /   0   0  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76 /   0   0  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25



000
FXUS64 KFWD 290016 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE NEXT 24 HOURS...STORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE JUST NORTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...APPEARS ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR METROPLEX SITES
WOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74 /   0   0  30  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76 /   0   0  10  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71 /   0  10  40  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73 /   0   0  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72 /   0   0  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74 /   0   0  30  30
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73 /   0   0  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75 /   0   0  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76 /   0   0  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25



000
FXUS64 KFWD 290016 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE NEXT 24 HOURS...STORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE JUST NORTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...APPEARS ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR METROPLEX SITES
WOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74 /   0   0  30  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76 /   0   0  10  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71 /   0  10  40  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73 /   0   0  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72 /   0   0  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74 /   0   0  30  30
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73 /   0   0  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75 /   0   0  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76 /   0   0  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25



000
FXUS64 KFWD 290016 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE NEXT 24 HOURS...STORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE JUST NORTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...APPEARS ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR METROPLEX SITES
WOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74 /   0   0  30  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76 /   0   0  10  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71 /   0  10  40  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73 /   0   0  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72 /   0   0  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74 /   0   0  30  30
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73 /   0   0  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75 /   0   0  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76 /   0   0  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25



000
FXUS64 KFWD 290016 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE NEXT 24 HOURS...STORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE JUST NORTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...APPEARS ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR METROPLEX SITES
WOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74 /   0   0  30  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76 /   0   0  10  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71 /   0  10  40  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73 /   0   0  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72 /   0   0  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74 /   0   0  30  30
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73 /   0   0  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75 /   0   0  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76 /   0   0  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25



000
FXUS64 KFWD 290016 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE NEXT 24 HOURS...STORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE JUST NORTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...APPEARS ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR METROPLEX SITES
WOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74 /   0   0  30  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76 /   0   0  10  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71 /   0  10  40  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73 /   0   0  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72 /   0   0  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74 /   0   0  30  30
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73 /   0   0  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75 /   0   0  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76 /   0   0  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KEWX 282348 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR SKC ONGOING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
OF TEXAS THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
29/09Z WHEN LOW STRATUS APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BKN LOWER CIGS REACHING
KSSF/KSAT NEAR 11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE QUICK MIXING
OCCURS TOWARDS 17Z GIVEN NAM/RAP/HRRR OUTPUT. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FOR IFR CIGS AT KSSF/KSAT 29/12-15Z AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR KAUS. VFR WILL PREVAIL BY 17Z ACROSS THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN WITH SOUTH WINDS 15 KT GUSTING TOWARDS 25-30 KT AT TIMES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A BREEZY AND WARM DAY TODAY SHOULD BE DUPLICATED SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADD TO INCREASED MOISTURE
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE DESPITE A WARMING TREND ON
MORNING LOWS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH A LAYER OF MORNING CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF THE
ESCARPMENT BY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
WIDENS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES...WHILE
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY OF BEST TIMING. THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES
THE SHIFT OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY. THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT. WITH THE OVERALL SLOWING TRENDS OF MODEL
INDICATED PATTERNS...THE ADJUSTMENTS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
THE GFS HAS MADE A MORE DRAMATIC SHIFT TO FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE
FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP WITH A MORE CONSENSUS FRIENDLY ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTING A MIDDAY PASSAGE. WITH LITTLE INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL CAP POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES AT
20 PERCENT...AND SHUN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE
POOLING OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  84  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  83  61  78  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     52  82  61  79  61 /   0   0  10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  82  60  76  60 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           56  88  62  81  64 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  82  61  77  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  85  60  82  62 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  82  60  79  61 /   0   0  10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  82  61  80  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           54  84  60  81  62 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00



000
FXUS64 KEWX 282348 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR SKC ONGOING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
OF TEXAS THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
29/09Z WHEN LOW STRATUS APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BKN LOWER CIGS REACHING
KSSF/KSAT NEAR 11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE QUICK MIXING
OCCURS TOWARDS 17Z GIVEN NAM/RAP/HRRR OUTPUT. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FOR IFR CIGS AT KSSF/KSAT 29/12-15Z AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR KAUS. VFR WILL PREVAIL BY 17Z ACROSS THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN WITH SOUTH WINDS 15 KT GUSTING TOWARDS 25-30 KT AT TIMES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A BREEZY AND WARM DAY TODAY SHOULD BE DUPLICATED SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADD TO INCREASED MOISTURE
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE DESPITE A WARMING TREND ON
MORNING LOWS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH A LAYER OF MORNING CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF THE
ESCARPMENT BY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
WIDENS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES...WHILE
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY OF BEST TIMING. THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES
THE SHIFT OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY. THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT. WITH THE OVERALL SLOWING TRENDS OF MODEL
INDICATED PATTERNS...THE ADJUSTMENTS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
THE GFS HAS MADE A MORE DRAMATIC SHIFT TO FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE
FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP WITH A MORE CONSENSUS FRIENDLY ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTING A MIDDAY PASSAGE. WITH LITTLE INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL CAP POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES AT
20 PERCENT...AND SHUN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE
POOLING OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  84  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  83  61  78  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     52  82  61  79  61 /   0   0  10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  82  60  76  60 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           56  88  62  81  64 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  82  61  77  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  85  60  82  62 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  82  60  79  61 /   0   0  10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  82  61  80  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           54  84  60  81  62 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00



000
FXUS64 KEWX 282348 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR SKC ONGOING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
OF TEXAS THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
29/09Z WHEN LOW STRATUS APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BKN LOWER CIGS REACHING
KSSF/KSAT NEAR 11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE QUICK MIXING
OCCURS TOWARDS 17Z GIVEN NAM/RAP/HRRR OUTPUT. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FOR IFR CIGS AT KSSF/KSAT 29/12-15Z AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR KAUS. VFR WILL PREVAIL BY 17Z ACROSS THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN WITH SOUTH WINDS 15 KT GUSTING TOWARDS 25-30 KT AT TIMES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A BREEZY AND WARM DAY TODAY SHOULD BE DUPLICATED SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADD TO INCREASED MOISTURE
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE DESPITE A WARMING TREND ON
MORNING LOWS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH A LAYER OF MORNING CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF THE
ESCARPMENT BY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
WIDENS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES...WHILE
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY OF BEST TIMING. THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES
THE SHIFT OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY. THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT. WITH THE OVERALL SLOWING TRENDS OF MODEL
INDICATED PATTERNS...THE ADJUSTMENTS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
THE GFS HAS MADE A MORE DRAMATIC SHIFT TO FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE
FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP WITH A MORE CONSENSUS FRIENDLY ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTING A MIDDAY PASSAGE. WITH LITTLE INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL CAP POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES AT
20 PERCENT...AND SHUN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE
POOLING OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  84  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  83  61  78  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     52  82  61  79  61 /   0   0  10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  82  60  76  60 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           56  88  62  81  64 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  82  61  77  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  85  60  82  62 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  82  60  79  61 /   0   0  10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  82  61  80  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           54  84  60  81  62 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00



000
FXUS64 KEWX 282348 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR SKC ONGOING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
OF TEXAS THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
29/09Z WHEN LOW STRATUS APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BKN LOWER CIGS REACHING
KSSF/KSAT NEAR 11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE QUICK MIXING
OCCURS TOWARDS 17Z GIVEN NAM/RAP/HRRR OUTPUT. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FOR IFR CIGS AT KSSF/KSAT 29/12-15Z AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR KAUS. VFR WILL PREVAIL BY 17Z ACROSS THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN WITH SOUTH WINDS 15 KT GUSTING TOWARDS 25-30 KT AT TIMES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A BREEZY AND WARM DAY TODAY SHOULD BE DUPLICATED SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADD TO INCREASED MOISTURE
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE DESPITE A WARMING TREND ON
MORNING LOWS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH A LAYER OF MORNING CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF THE
ESCARPMENT BY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
WIDENS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES...WHILE
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY OF BEST TIMING. THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES
THE SHIFT OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY. THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT. WITH THE OVERALL SLOWING TRENDS OF MODEL
INDICATED PATTERNS...THE ADJUSTMENTS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
THE GFS HAS MADE A MORE DRAMATIC SHIFT TO FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE
FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP WITH A MORE CONSENSUS FRIENDLY ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTING A MIDDAY PASSAGE. WITH LITTLE INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL CAP POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES AT
20 PERCENT...AND SHUN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE
POOLING OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  84  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  83  61  78  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     52  82  61  79  61 /   0   0  10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  82  60  76  60 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           56  88  62  81  64 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  82  61  77  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  85  60  82  62 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  82  60  79  61 /   0   0  10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  82  61  80  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           54  84  60  81  62 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00



000
FXUS64 KEWX 282348 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR SKC ONGOING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
OF TEXAS THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
29/09Z WHEN LOW STRATUS APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BKN LOWER CIGS REACHING
KSSF/KSAT NEAR 11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE QUICK MIXING
OCCURS TOWARDS 17Z GIVEN NAM/RAP/HRRR OUTPUT. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FOR IFR CIGS AT KSSF/KSAT 29/12-15Z AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR KAUS. VFR WILL PREVAIL BY 17Z ACROSS THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN WITH SOUTH WINDS 15 KT GUSTING TOWARDS 25-30 KT AT TIMES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A BREEZY AND WARM DAY TODAY SHOULD BE DUPLICATED SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADD TO INCREASED MOISTURE
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE DESPITE A WARMING TREND ON
MORNING LOWS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH A LAYER OF MORNING CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF THE
ESCARPMENT BY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
WIDENS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES...WHILE
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY OF BEST TIMING. THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES
THE SHIFT OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY. THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT. WITH THE OVERALL SLOWING TRENDS OF MODEL
INDICATED PATTERNS...THE ADJUSTMENTS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
THE GFS HAS MADE A MORE DRAMATIC SHIFT TO FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE
FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP WITH A MORE CONSENSUS FRIENDLY ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTING A MIDDAY PASSAGE. WITH LITTLE INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL CAP POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES AT
20 PERCENT...AND SHUN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE
POOLING OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  84  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  83  61  78  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     52  82  61  79  61 /   0   0  10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  82  60  76  60 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           56  88  62  81  64 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  82  61  77  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  85  60  82  62 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  82  60  79  61 /   0   0  10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  82  61  80  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           54  84  60  81  62 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00



000
FXUS64 KEWX 282348 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR SKC ONGOING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
OF TEXAS THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
29/09Z WHEN LOW STRATUS APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST INLAND ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BKN LOWER CIGS REACHING
KSSF/KSAT NEAR 11Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE QUICK MIXING
OCCURS TOWARDS 17Z GIVEN NAM/RAP/HRRR OUTPUT. HAVE PLACED TEMPO
GROUP FOR IFR CIGS AT KSSF/KSAT 29/12-15Z AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR KAUS. VFR WILL PREVAIL BY 17Z ACROSS THE REGION ONCE
AGAIN WITH SOUTH WINDS 15 KT GUSTING TOWARDS 25-30 KT AT TIMES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A BREEZY AND WARM DAY TODAY SHOULD BE DUPLICATED SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADD TO INCREASED MOISTURE
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE DESPITE A WARMING TREND ON
MORNING LOWS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH A LAYER OF MORNING CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF THE
ESCARPMENT BY MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
WIDENS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES...WHILE
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY OF BEST TIMING. THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES
THE SHIFT OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY. THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS DRY...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT. WITH THE OVERALL SLOWING TRENDS OF MODEL
INDICATED PATTERNS...THE ADJUSTMENTS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
THE GFS HAS MADE A MORE DRAMATIC SHIFT TO FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE
FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP WITH A MORE CONSENSUS FRIENDLY ECMWF MODEL
DEPICTING A MIDDAY PASSAGE. WITH LITTLE INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL CAP POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES AT
20 PERCENT...AND SHUN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE
POOLING OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  84  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  83  61  78  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     52  82  61  79  61 /   0   0  10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  82  60  76  60 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           56  88  62  81  64 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  82  61  77  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  85  60  82  62 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  82  60  79  61 /   0   0  10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  82  61  80  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           54  84  60  81  62 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00




000
FXUS64 KHGX 282347
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015



.AVIATION...
VFR. SSW WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY DRY
PROFILE AND MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AND MIXED
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. DON`T EXPECT ANY LARGE AREAS OF ST OR FOG.
PERHAPS A BIT OF MIFG AT CXO BUT THINK IT IS TOO DRY. NAM AND GFS
SEEM FAR TO OVERDONE WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THEN INCREASE TOMORROW TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY PRIMARILY FROM 180-190. SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY WITH GULF SKIES THAT ARE CLEAR NOW SO AM ONLY EXPECTING
FEW/SCT 2000-2500FT LATE IN THE MORNING.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO
BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
STRONG. AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT...FEEL THE AIR WILL
SATURATE AND CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER FOR A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 10-15Z
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WARM A BIT ON
SUNDAY AND COUPLED WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S. ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL
ERODE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TOWARD THE SURFACE. CLOUDS RETURN
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LINGER MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS SE TX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ON
MONDAY BUT ALSO SHOW A SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE CAP. CAN`T RULE
OUT SOME WEAK SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF
CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TOO DRY WITH PW
VALUES ONLY REACHING 1.10 INCHES. CAPPING LOOKS WEAKER BUT THE
MEAGER MOISTURE LEVELS AND VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 850 MB SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY CARRY 20 POPS FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH SE TX ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING AND QPF
OUTPUT WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER...DRIER AND OVERALL JUST MORE
BENIGN. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH BETTER JET DYNAMICS WITH SE TX LYING IN
A LFQ WHILE THE GFS PLACES SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF THE JET.
PW VALUES ALSO DIFFER WITH THE GFS PW VALUES AT 1.3O INCHES WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS VALUES REACHING 1.60 INCHES. THE ECMWF SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB WHILE THE
GFS DOES NOT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EC SINCE THE CANADIAN NOW
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF AND THE EC HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST 3-4 DAYS. BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT ON THU/FRI WILL BE W-SW BECOMING MORE SW WITH TIME.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW USUALLY KEEPS THINGS CLOUDY WITH SCT SHRA AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA. YET FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AND MEAGER PWATS. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR THU/FRI BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MAYBE
LOWISH POPS ARE NEEDED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX NEXT
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. 43

MARINE...
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WESTERN TEXAS TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE...SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF GENERALLY 10-15 KT ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER OFFSHORE SEAS BY ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN
OFFSHORE WATERS TO MENTION A DECENT CHANCE FOR A SHORT FUSE CAUTION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORM
CHANCES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PASSES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      56  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45



000
FXUS64 KHGX 282347
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015



.AVIATION...
VFR. SSW WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY DRY
PROFILE AND MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AND MIXED
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. DON`T EXPECT ANY LARGE AREAS OF ST OR FOG.
PERHAPS A BIT OF MIFG AT CXO BUT THINK IT IS TOO DRY. NAM AND GFS
SEEM FAR TO OVERDONE WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THEN INCREASE TOMORROW TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY PRIMARILY FROM 180-190. SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY WITH GULF SKIES THAT ARE CLEAR NOW SO AM ONLY EXPECTING
FEW/SCT 2000-2500FT LATE IN THE MORNING.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO
BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
STRONG. AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT...FEEL THE AIR WILL
SATURATE AND CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER FOR A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 10-15Z
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WARM A BIT ON
SUNDAY AND COUPLED WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S. ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL
ERODE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TOWARD THE SURFACE. CLOUDS RETURN
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LINGER MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS SE TX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ON
MONDAY BUT ALSO SHOW A SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE CAP. CAN`T RULE
OUT SOME WEAK SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF
CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TOO DRY WITH PW
VALUES ONLY REACHING 1.10 INCHES. CAPPING LOOKS WEAKER BUT THE
MEAGER MOISTURE LEVELS AND VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 850 MB SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY CARRY 20 POPS FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH SE TX ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING AND QPF
OUTPUT WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER...DRIER AND OVERALL JUST MORE
BENIGN. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH BETTER JET DYNAMICS WITH SE TX LYING IN
A LFQ WHILE THE GFS PLACES SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF THE JET.
PW VALUES ALSO DIFFER WITH THE GFS PW VALUES AT 1.3O INCHES WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS VALUES REACHING 1.60 INCHES. THE ECMWF SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB WHILE THE
GFS DOES NOT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EC SINCE THE CANADIAN NOW
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF AND THE EC HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST 3-4 DAYS. BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT ON THU/FRI WILL BE W-SW BECOMING MORE SW WITH TIME.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW USUALLY KEEPS THINGS CLOUDY WITH SCT SHRA AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA. YET FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AND MEAGER PWATS. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR THU/FRI BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MAYBE
LOWISH POPS ARE NEEDED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX NEXT
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. 43

MARINE...
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WESTERN TEXAS TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE...SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF GENERALLY 10-15 KT ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER OFFSHORE SEAS BY ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN
OFFSHORE WATERS TO MENTION A DECENT CHANCE FOR A SHORT FUSE CAUTION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORM
CHANCES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PASSES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      56  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 282347
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015



.AVIATION...
VFR. SSW WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY DRY
PROFILE AND MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AND MIXED
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. DON`T EXPECT ANY LARGE AREAS OF ST OR FOG.
PERHAPS A BIT OF MIFG AT CXO BUT THINK IT IS TOO DRY. NAM AND GFS
SEEM FAR TO OVERDONE WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THEN INCREASE TOMORROW TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY PRIMARILY FROM 180-190. SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY WITH GULF SKIES THAT ARE CLEAR NOW SO AM ONLY EXPECTING
FEW/SCT 2000-2500FT LATE IN THE MORNING.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO
BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
STRONG. AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT...FEEL THE AIR WILL
SATURATE AND CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER FOR A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 10-15Z
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WARM A BIT ON
SUNDAY AND COUPLED WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S. ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL
ERODE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TOWARD THE SURFACE. CLOUDS RETURN
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LINGER MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS SE TX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ON
MONDAY BUT ALSO SHOW A SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE CAP. CAN`T RULE
OUT SOME WEAK SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF
CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TOO DRY WITH PW
VALUES ONLY REACHING 1.10 INCHES. CAPPING LOOKS WEAKER BUT THE
MEAGER MOISTURE LEVELS AND VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 850 MB SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY CARRY 20 POPS FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH SE TX ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING AND QPF
OUTPUT WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER...DRIER AND OVERALL JUST MORE
BENIGN. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH BETTER JET DYNAMICS WITH SE TX LYING IN
A LFQ WHILE THE GFS PLACES SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF THE JET.
PW VALUES ALSO DIFFER WITH THE GFS PW VALUES AT 1.3O INCHES WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS VALUES REACHING 1.60 INCHES. THE ECMWF SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB WHILE THE
GFS DOES NOT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EC SINCE THE CANADIAN NOW
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF AND THE EC HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST 3-4 DAYS. BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT ON THU/FRI WILL BE W-SW BECOMING MORE SW WITH TIME.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW USUALLY KEEPS THINGS CLOUDY WITH SCT SHRA AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA. YET FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AND MEAGER PWATS. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR THU/FRI BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MAYBE
LOWISH POPS ARE NEEDED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX NEXT
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. 43

MARINE...
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WESTERN TEXAS TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE...SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF GENERALLY 10-15 KT ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER OFFSHORE SEAS BY ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN
OFFSHORE WATERS TO MENTION A DECENT CHANCE FOR A SHORT FUSE CAUTION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORM
CHANCES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PASSES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      56  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 282347
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
647 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015



.AVIATION...
VFR. SSW WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY DRY
PROFILE AND MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AND MIXED
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. DON`T EXPECT ANY LARGE AREAS OF ST OR FOG.
PERHAPS A BIT OF MIFG AT CXO BUT THINK IT IS TOO DRY. NAM AND GFS
SEEM FAR TO OVERDONE WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THEN INCREASE TOMORROW TO AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY PRIMARILY FROM 180-190. SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY WITH GULF SKIES THAT ARE CLEAR NOW SO AM ONLY EXPECTING
FEW/SCT 2000-2500FT LATE IN THE MORNING.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO
BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
STRONG. AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT...FEEL THE AIR WILL
SATURATE AND CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER FOR A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 10-15Z
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WARM A BIT ON
SUNDAY AND COUPLED WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S. ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL
ERODE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TOWARD THE SURFACE. CLOUDS RETURN
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LINGER MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS SE TX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ON
MONDAY BUT ALSO SHOW A SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE CAP. CAN`T RULE
OUT SOME WEAK SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF
CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TOO DRY WITH PW
VALUES ONLY REACHING 1.10 INCHES. CAPPING LOOKS WEAKER BUT THE
MEAGER MOISTURE LEVELS AND VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 850 MB SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY CARRY 20 POPS FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH SE TX ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING AND QPF
OUTPUT WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER...DRIER AND OVERALL JUST MORE
BENIGN. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH BETTER JET DYNAMICS WITH SE TX LYING IN
A LFQ WHILE THE GFS PLACES SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF THE JET.
PW VALUES ALSO DIFFER WITH THE GFS PW VALUES AT 1.3O INCHES WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS VALUES REACHING 1.60 INCHES. THE ECMWF SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB WHILE THE
GFS DOES NOT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EC SINCE THE CANADIAN NOW
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF AND THE EC HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST 3-4 DAYS. BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT ON THU/FRI WILL BE W-SW BECOMING MORE SW WITH TIME.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW USUALLY KEEPS THINGS CLOUDY WITH SCT SHRA AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA. YET FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AND MEAGER PWATS. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR THU/FRI BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MAYBE
LOWISH POPS ARE NEEDED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX NEXT
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. 43

MARINE...
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WESTERN TEXAS TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE...SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF GENERALLY 10-15 KT ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER OFFSHORE SEAS BY ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN
OFFSHORE WATERS TO MENTION A DECENT CHANCE FOR A SHORT FUSE CAUTION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORM
CHANCES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PASSES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      56  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45



000
FXUS64 KLUB 282342 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE TAF SITES...WIND WILL SWING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED
TO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  73  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         47  75  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  76  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  80  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  80  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  86  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  84  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     55  89  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLUB 282342 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE TAF SITES...WIND WILL SWING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED
TO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  73  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         47  75  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  76  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  80  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  80  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  86  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  84  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     55  89  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLUB 282342 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE TAF SITES...WIND WILL SWING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED
TO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  73  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         47  75  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  76  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  80  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  80  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  86  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  84  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     55  89  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KCRP 282337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  84  67  83  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          58  83  64  82  65  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  90  65  89  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             57  87  65  86  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  79  67  80  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  88  64  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        60  86  66  85  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       65  79  68  80  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 282337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  84  67  83  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          58  83  64  82  65  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  90  65  89  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             57  87  65  86  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  79  67  80  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  88  64  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        60  86  66  85  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       65  79  68  80  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 282337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  84  67  83  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          58  83  64  82  65  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  90  65  89  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             57  87  65  86  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  79  67  80  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  88  64  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        60  86  66  85  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       65  79  68  80  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 282337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND RELAX THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES MORE SO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS...AND MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG FORM OVER ALI AND
VCT IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR
CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  84  67  83  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          58  83  64  82  65  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  90  65  89  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             57  87  65  86  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  79  67  80  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  88  64  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        60  86  66  85  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       65  79  68  80  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KBRO 282331
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 282331
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55



000
FXUS64 KBRO 282331
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 282331
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55



000
FXUS64 KSJT 282325
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
625 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across the terminals the next 24
hours. South to southwest winds will diminish this evening but
increase again on Sunday. A cold front will approach the KABI
terminal towards the end of the forecast period, with winds
shifting to the north after 23Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Temperatures across west central Texas have warmed into the lower
to middle 80s at mid-afternoon. Shortwave upper ridge over the
Desert Southwest will shift east into Texas on Sunday. With south-
southwest low-level flow, our above normal temperatures will
continue, and to a greater extent on Sunday. Wind speeds will
decrease this evening, but should have some increase overnight in
the favored areas near/downstream of the higher terrain with low-
level jet developing. Overnight low temperatures are expected to
range from around 50 along the I-10 corridor, to the upper
50s/near 60 degrees in our northern counties.

With an upper trough moving southeast across the upper Midwest on
Sunday, trailing portion of associated cold front will move south
into our far north and northwest counties by early Sunday evening.
Strong 850mb thermal ridging pattern is indicated just ahead of
this front with compressional warming effects. With this pattern
and sunny skies, temperatures are expected to soar into the lower
90s for highs across much of the Big Country and Concho Valley
areas (including Abilene, Sweetwater, Ballinger and San Angelo),
with mid-90s possible at a few locations. Having mentioned this,
the record highs for Sunday (96 degrees at Abilene and 97 at San
Angelo) look safe and are expected to hold. South-southwest winds
will continue ahead of the front. Winds will shift to the north
with the frontal passage late in the day across the far
north/northwest part of our area (Haskell, Throckmorton, Fisher
and Jones Counties).

19

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

An upper level trough is currently in place over the eastern U.
S. with a ridge breaking down over the western states, and Texas
under northwest flow. There is a compact upper level low west of
the southern California coast.

As the upper level low out over the Pacific approaches the area
Monday night into Tuesday, rain chances will come into the picture.
Both the GFS and ECMWF weaken the low, flattening it into an open
wave. However, the GFS suppresses the best lift to our south, and
the ECMWF is more amplified with the system as a whole. Thus, the
ECMWF leads to more synoptic lift, and better rain chances/higher
rainfall amounts for our area than does the GFS. Trends remained
generally similar to previous models runs, bringing in rain
chances Monday night into Tuesday, so no significant changes were
made to the forecast, keep at least slight chances in from Monday
night through Tuesday night.

The GFS develops a large trough across the western U. S. at the
end of the week with southwest flow over Texas. A shortwave will
move across the central plains region Thursday night into Friday,
sending a cold front into Texas. The GFS develops precipitation
Saturday into Saturday night across the area associated with
shortwave impulses embedded in the southwest flow, and the cold
front entering the area. While this can`t be ruled out, timing
these shortwaves and cold fronts 6 to 7 days in advance is very
tricky, so have not gone higher than slight chance PoPs at the end
of the forecast. Temperatures behind the cold front Saturday look
to be significantly cooler, with highs only in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees.

In between these two potential rain chances, zonal flow and a
strengthening low level thermal ridge will lead to warming
temperatures through the middle of the work week. Medium range MOS
guidance from the GFS warms San Angelo into the upper 90s, and
Abilene into the mid to upper 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. And
although we should bounce back quickly from the cold front that
moves through the area Sunday night/Monday morning, we are not
expecting mid to upper 90s by the second half of the week, and
have tempered highs significantly from the very warm MEX numbers.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  92  53  77  59 /   0   0   0  10  20
San Angelo  56  94  53  80  60 /   0   0   0   5  20
Junction  52  87  54  80  60 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24






000
FXUS64 KSJT 282325
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
625 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across the terminals the next 24
hours. South to southwest winds will diminish this evening but
increase again on Sunday. A cold front will approach the KABI
terminal towards the end of the forecast period, with winds
shifting to the north after 23Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Temperatures across west central Texas have warmed into the lower
to middle 80s at mid-afternoon. Shortwave upper ridge over the
Desert Southwest will shift east into Texas on Sunday. With south-
southwest low-level flow, our above normal temperatures will
continue, and to a greater extent on Sunday. Wind speeds will
decrease this evening, but should have some increase overnight in
the favored areas near/downstream of the higher terrain with low-
level jet developing. Overnight low temperatures are expected to
range from around 50 along the I-10 corridor, to the upper
50s/near 60 degrees in our northern counties.

With an upper trough moving southeast across the upper Midwest on
Sunday, trailing portion of associated cold front will move south
into our far north and northwest counties by early Sunday evening.
Strong 850mb thermal ridging pattern is indicated just ahead of
this front with compressional warming effects. With this pattern
and sunny skies, temperatures are expected to soar into the lower
90s for highs across much of the Big Country and Concho Valley
areas (including Abilene, Sweetwater, Ballinger and San Angelo),
with mid-90s possible at a few locations. Having mentioned this,
the record highs for Sunday (96 degrees at Abilene and 97 at San
Angelo) look safe and are expected to hold. South-southwest winds
will continue ahead of the front. Winds will shift to the north
with the frontal passage late in the day across the far
north/northwest part of our area (Haskell, Throckmorton, Fisher
and Jones Counties).

19

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

An upper level trough is currently in place over the eastern U.
S. with a ridge breaking down over the western states, and Texas
under northwest flow. There is a compact upper level low west of
the southern California coast.

As the upper level low out over the Pacific approaches the area
Monday night into Tuesday, rain chances will come into the picture.
Both the GFS and ECMWF weaken the low, flattening it into an open
wave. However, the GFS suppresses the best lift to our south, and
the ECMWF is more amplified with the system as a whole. Thus, the
ECMWF leads to more synoptic lift, and better rain chances/higher
rainfall amounts for our area than does the GFS. Trends remained
generally similar to previous models runs, bringing in rain
chances Monday night into Tuesday, so no significant changes were
made to the forecast, keep at least slight chances in from Monday
night through Tuesday night.

The GFS develops a large trough across the western U. S. at the
end of the week with southwest flow over Texas. A shortwave will
move across the central plains region Thursday night into Friday,
sending a cold front into Texas. The GFS develops precipitation
Saturday into Saturday night across the area associated with
shortwave impulses embedded in the southwest flow, and the cold
front entering the area. While this can`t be ruled out, timing
these shortwaves and cold fronts 6 to 7 days in advance is very
tricky, so have not gone higher than slight chance PoPs at the end
of the forecast. Temperatures behind the cold front Saturday look
to be significantly cooler, with highs only in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees.

In between these two potential rain chances, zonal flow and a
strengthening low level thermal ridge will lead to warming
temperatures through the middle of the work week. Medium range MOS
guidance from the GFS warms San Angelo into the upper 90s, and
Abilene into the mid to upper 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. And
although we should bounce back quickly from the cold front that
moves through the area Sunday night/Monday morning, we are not
expecting mid to upper 90s by the second half of the week, and
have tempered highs significantly from the very warm MEX numbers.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  92  53  77  59 /   0   0   0  10  20
San Angelo  56  94  53  80  60 /   0   0   0   5  20
Junction  52  87  54  80  60 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24





000
FXUS64 KAMA 282315
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
615 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OF LESS THAN
12KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH WINDS OF 25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT ARE
EXPECTED. TOWARDS 00Z TOMORROW WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELDS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED AS ONLY WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WAS PRESENT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A PERIOD OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH RESULTED IN STRONGER
WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN FIELDS. ANY BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
MEAN WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES...ORGANIZED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD HAPPEN PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
POSITION OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.

CONFIDENCE IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES EVOLVE MID WEEK IS A LITTLE LESS
THEN DESIRABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK
LEE LOW TO EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH STRONGER LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 282315
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
615 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OF LESS THAN
12KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH WINDS OF 25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT ARE
EXPECTED. TOWARDS 00Z TOMORROW WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELDS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED AS ONLY WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WAS PRESENT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A PERIOD OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH RESULTED IN STRONGER
WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN FIELDS. ANY BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
MEAN WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES...ORGANIZED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD HAPPEN PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
POSITION OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.

CONFIDENCE IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES EVOLVE MID WEEK IS A LITTLE LESS
THEN DESIRABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK
LEE LOW TO EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH STRONGER LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 282315
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
615 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OF LESS THAN
12KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH WINDS OF 25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT ARE
EXPECTED. TOWARDS 00Z TOMORROW WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELDS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED AS ONLY WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WAS PRESENT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A PERIOD OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH RESULTED IN STRONGER
WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN FIELDS. ANY BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
MEAN WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES...ORGANIZED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD HAPPEN PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
POSITION OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.

CONFIDENCE IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES EVOLVE MID WEEK IS A LITTLE LESS
THEN DESIRABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK
LEE LOW TO EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH STRONGER LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 282315
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
615 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE WITH A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OF LESS THAN
12KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH WINDS OF 25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT ARE
EXPECTED. TOWARDS 00Z TOMORROW WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELDS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED AS ONLY WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WAS PRESENT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A PERIOD OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH RESULTED IN STRONGER
WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN FIELDS. ANY BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
MEAN WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES...ORGANIZED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD HAPPEN PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
POSITION OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.

CONFIDENCE IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES EVOLVE MID WEEK IS A LITTLE LESS
THEN DESIRABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK
LEE LOW TO EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH STRONGER LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15





000
FXUS64 KMAF 282256
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
No aviation issues expected over the next day so will continue
with VFR conditions in the TAFs. Winds may get a little gusty
though Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 282256
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
No aviation issues expected over the next day so will continue
with VFR conditions in the TAFs. Winds may get a little gusty
though Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 282256
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
No aviation issues expected over the next day so will continue
with VFR conditions in the TAFs. Winds may get a little gusty
though Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 282256
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
No aviation issues expected over the next day so will continue
with VFR conditions in the TAFs. Winds may get a little gusty
though Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 282256
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
No aviation issues expected over the next day so will continue
with VFR conditions in the TAFs. Winds may get a little gusty
though Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 282256
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
No aviation issues expected over the next day so will continue
with VFR conditions in the TAFs. Winds may get a little gusty
though Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282144
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
344 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...BUT INCREASINGLY THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARM AND
BREEZY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON...AS OF 3PM
WE WERE JUST 3 DEGREES AWAY FROM OUR RECORD HIGH OF 88 AT EL PASO.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT DOWN TO THE WIRE.

THE WARM WEATHER IS COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD. AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...A PLUME OF HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ARE TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AND FAIRLY THICK HIGH
CLOUDS WHICH ALONG WITH A SLIGHT DROP TEMPS ALOFT...WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW. TOMORROWS RECORD IS
ALSO 88...BUT WE WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES SHORT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS WILL FORCE A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT UP TO AROUND AN LRU-ELP LINE BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA...WITH 40S
DEWPOINTS SNEAKING INTO THE MESILLA VALLEY IN THE MORNING...BUT
QUICKLY MIXING OUT TO THE EP/HUDSPETH COUNTY LINE BY THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH EACH RUN. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH ISOLATED...MAINLY TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY...BUT STRONG CAPPING WILL LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THERE.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN...IT APPEARS LIKE ITS
EFFECTS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE WASHED OUT BY THEN...AND WE WILL SEE
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL...
LINGERING 40S DEWPOINTS EAST OF AN ALM-ELP LINE AND INCREASING PVA
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW FAVORS SOME WEAK/ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SCANT QPF... ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWLANDS. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
SUGGEST SOME GUSTY "VIRGA-BOMBS" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME GUSTS
GETTING ABOVE 40 MPH.

ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS WED-FRI. TYPICAL SPRING TIME WEATHER...BUT NO
MAJOR BLOCKBUSTER WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE HORIZON YET. ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIP
WITH ANOTHER WEAK SOUTHERN-STREAM DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH
SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z-30/00Z...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ARIZ WILL SHIFT EAST AND MOVE OVERHEAD
AND FLATTEN IN INTENSITY SUNDAY. PREVAILING SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FM THE WNW 5-10KTS EXCEPT 10G20 KTS 18-24Z. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT CI CLOUDS FM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT FEW-SCT250 BECOMING SCT-
BKN BY THE END OF THE FCST PD. OROGRAPHIC TURBC WILL REMAIN NIL-
LGT AND THERMAL TURBC WILL BE LGT AT TIMES 17Z-24Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORDS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH THIN CLOUDS BY
SUNDAY. MONDAY A FAST MOVING PACIFIC FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GIVING US A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
WITH DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOW RH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AT THAT TIME. AFTERNOONS LOOK
BREEZY BUT STILL NO BIG WIND EVENTS. MEAN RH VALUES WILL RANGE IN
THE 5% TO 15% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  87  60  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           50  84  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              48  85  53  82  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              46  84  53  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              45  63  43  59  41 /   0   0   0  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  83  54  79  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             47  76  51  73  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEMING                  43  85  53  84  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               44  84  50  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  87  61  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
DELL CITY               47  87  52  80  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            52  89  59  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              55  80  55  78  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  54  88  59  83  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            51  86  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  84  58  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           42  84  46  82  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
HATCH                   47  85  52  82  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                47  84  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               51  84  56  82  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 48  73  45  68  46 /   0   0   0  10  20
MESCALERO               44  72  43  68  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                46  72  45  69  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 43  76  47  71  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
HILLSBORO               50  81  53  77  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPACEPORT               46  84  49  81  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            41  75  45  71  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
HURLEY                  46  79  50  76  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLIFF                   42  82  49  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              35  80  41  78  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  79  52  76  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANIMAS                  46  84  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 43  85  50  83  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          43  84  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              44  81  51  78  47 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN/20-NOVLAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282144
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
344 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...BUT INCREASINGLY THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARM AND
BREEZY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON...AS OF 3PM
WE WERE JUST 3 DEGREES AWAY FROM OUR RECORD HIGH OF 88 AT EL PASO.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT DOWN TO THE WIRE.

THE WARM WEATHER IS COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD. AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...A PLUME OF HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ARE TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AND FAIRLY THICK HIGH
CLOUDS WHICH ALONG WITH A SLIGHT DROP TEMPS ALOFT...WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW. TOMORROWS RECORD IS
ALSO 88...BUT WE WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES SHORT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS WILL FORCE A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT UP TO AROUND AN LRU-ELP LINE BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA...WITH 40S
DEWPOINTS SNEAKING INTO THE MESILLA VALLEY IN THE MORNING...BUT
QUICKLY MIXING OUT TO THE EP/HUDSPETH COUNTY LINE BY THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH EACH RUN. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH ISOLATED...MAINLY TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY...BUT STRONG CAPPING WILL LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THERE.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN...IT APPEARS LIKE ITS
EFFECTS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE WASHED OUT BY THEN...AND WE WILL SEE
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL...
LINGERING 40S DEWPOINTS EAST OF AN ALM-ELP LINE AND INCREASING PVA
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW FAVORS SOME WEAK/ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SCANT QPF... ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWLANDS. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
SUGGEST SOME GUSTY "VIRGA-BOMBS" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME GUSTS
GETTING ABOVE 40 MPH.

ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS WED-FRI. TYPICAL SPRING TIME WEATHER...BUT NO
MAJOR BLOCKBUSTER WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE HORIZON YET. ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIP
WITH ANOTHER WEAK SOUTHERN-STREAM DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH
SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z-30/00Z...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ARIZ WILL SHIFT EAST AND MOVE OVERHEAD
AND FLATTEN IN INTENSITY SUNDAY. PREVAILING SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FM THE WNW 5-10KTS EXCEPT 10G20 KTS 18-24Z. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT CI CLOUDS FM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT FEW-SCT250 BECOMING SCT-
BKN BY THE END OF THE FCST PD. OROGRAPHIC TURBC WILL REMAIN NIL-
LGT AND THERMAL TURBC WILL BE LGT AT TIMES 17Z-24Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORDS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH THIN CLOUDS BY
SUNDAY. MONDAY A FAST MOVING PACIFIC FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GIVING US A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
WITH DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOW RH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AT THAT TIME. AFTERNOONS LOOK
BREEZY BUT STILL NO BIG WIND EVENTS. MEAN RH VALUES WILL RANGE IN
THE 5% TO 15% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  87  60  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           50  84  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              48  85  53  82  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              46  84  53  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              45  63  43  59  41 /   0   0   0  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  83  54  79  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             47  76  51  73  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEMING                  43  85  53  84  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               44  84  50  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  87  61  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
DELL CITY               47  87  52  80  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            52  89  59  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              55  80  55  78  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  54  88  59  83  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            51  86  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  84  58  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           42  84  46  82  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
HATCH                   47  85  52  82  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                47  84  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               51  84  56  82  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 48  73  45  68  46 /   0   0   0  10  20
MESCALERO               44  72  43  68  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                46  72  45  69  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 43  76  47  71  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
HILLSBORO               50  81  53  77  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPACEPORT               46  84  49  81  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            41  75  45  71  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
HURLEY                  46  79  50  76  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLIFF                   42  82  49  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              35  80  41  78  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  79  52  76  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANIMAS                  46  84  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 43  85  50  83  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          43  84  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              44  81  51  78  47 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN/20-NOVLAN





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282144
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
344 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...BUT INCREASINGLY THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARM AND
BREEZY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON...AS OF 3PM
WE WERE JUST 3 DEGREES AWAY FROM OUR RECORD HIGH OF 88 AT EL PASO.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT DOWN TO THE WIRE.

THE WARM WEATHER IS COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD. AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...A PLUME OF HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ARE TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AND FAIRLY THICK HIGH
CLOUDS WHICH ALONG WITH A SLIGHT DROP TEMPS ALOFT...WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW. TOMORROWS RECORD IS
ALSO 88...BUT WE WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES SHORT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS WILL FORCE A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT UP TO AROUND AN LRU-ELP LINE BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA...WITH 40S
DEWPOINTS SNEAKING INTO THE MESILLA VALLEY IN THE MORNING...BUT
QUICKLY MIXING OUT TO THE EP/HUDSPETH COUNTY LINE BY THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH EACH RUN. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH ISOLATED...MAINLY TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY...BUT STRONG CAPPING WILL LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THERE.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN...IT APPEARS LIKE ITS
EFFECTS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE WASHED OUT BY THEN...AND WE WILL SEE
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL...
LINGERING 40S DEWPOINTS EAST OF AN ALM-ELP LINE AND INCREASING PVA
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW FAVORS SOME WEAK/ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SCANT QPF... ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWLANDS. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
SUGGEST SOME GUSTY "VIRGA-BOMBS" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME GUSTS
GETTING ABOVE 40 MPH.

ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS WED-FRI. TYPICAL SPRING TIME WEATHER...BUT NO
MAJOR BLOCKBUSTER WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE HORIZON YET. ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIP
WITH ANOTHER WEAK SOUTHERN-STREAM DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH
SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z-30/00Z...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ARIZ WILL SHIFT EAST AND MOVE OVERHEAD
AND FLATTEN IN INTENSITY SUNDAY. PREVAILING SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FM THE WNW 5-10KTS EXCEPT 10G20 KTS 18-24Z. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT CI CLOUDS FM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT FEW-SCT250 BECOMING SCT-
BKN BY THE END OF THE FCST PD. OROGRAPHIC TURBC WILL REMAIN NIL-
LGT AND THERMAL TURBC WILL BE LGT AT TIMES 17Z-24Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORDS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH THIN CLOUDS BY
SUNDAY. MONDAY A FAST MOVING PACIFIC FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GIVING US A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
WITH DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOW RH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AT THAT TIME. AFTERNOONS LOOK
BREEZY BUT STILL NO BIG WIND EVENTS. MEAN RH VALUES WILL RANGE IN
THE 5% TO 15% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  87  60  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           50  84  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              48  85  53  82  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              46  84  53  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              45  63  43  59  41 /   0   0   0  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  83  54  79  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             47  76  51  73  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEMING                  43  85  53  84  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               44  84  50  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  87  61  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
DELL CITY               47  87  52  80  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            52  89  59  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              55  80  55  78  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  54  88  59  83  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            51  86  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  84  58  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           42  84  46  82  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
HATCH                   47  85  52  82  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                47  84  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               51  84  56  82  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 48  73  45  68  46 /   0   0   0  10  20
MESCALERO               44  72  43  68  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                46  72  45  69  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 43  76  47  71  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
HILLSBORO               50  81  53  77  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPACEPORT               46  84  49  81  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            41  75  45  71  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
HURLEY                  46  79  50  76  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLIFF                   42  82  49  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              35  80  41  78  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  79  52  76  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANIMAS                  46  84  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 43  85  50  83  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          43  84  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              44  81  51  78  47 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN/20-NOVLAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282144
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
344 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...BUT INCREASINGLY THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARM AND
BREEZY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON...AS OF 3PM
WE WERE JUST 3 DEGREES AWAY FROM OUR RECORD HIGH OF 88 AT EL PASO.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT DOWN TO THE WIRE.

THE WARM WEATHER IS COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD. AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...A PLUME OF HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ARE TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD AND FAIRLY THICK HIGH
CLOUDS WHICH ALONG WITH A SLIGHT DROP TEMPS ALOFT...WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW. TOMORROWS RECORD IS
ALSO 88...BUT WE WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES SHORT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS WILL FORCE A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT UP TO AROUND AN LRU-ELP LINE BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA...WITH 40S
DEWPOINTS SNEAKING INTO THE MESILLA VALLEY IN THE MORNING...BUT
QUICKLY MIXING OUT TO THE EP/HUDSPETH COUNTY LINE BY THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH EACH RUN. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH ISOLATED...MAINLY TERRAIN-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY...BUT STRONG CAPPING WILL LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THERE.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN...IT APPEARS LIKE ITS
EFFECTS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL HAVE WASHED OUT BY THEN...AND WE WILL SEE
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL...
LINGERING 40S DEWPOINTS EAST OF AN ALM-ELP LINE AND INCREASING PVA
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW FAVORS SOME WEAK/ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN SCANT QPF... ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWLANDS. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
SUGGEST SOME GUSTY "VIRGA-BOMBS" WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME GUSTS
GETTING ABOVE 40 MPH.

ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
TO WINDY AFTERNOONS WED-FRI. TYPICAL SPRING TIME WEATHER...BUT NO
MAJOR BLOCKBUSTER WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE HORIZON YET. ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIP
WITH ANOTHER WEAK SOUTHERN-STREAM DISTURBANCE RIPPLING THROUGH
SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z-30/00Z...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ARIZ WILL SHIFT EAST AND MOVE OVERHEAD
AND FLATTEN IN INTENSITY SUNDAY. PREVAILING SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FM THE WNW 5-10KTS EXCEPT 10G20 KTS 18-24Z. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT CI CLOUDS FM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT FEW-SCT250 BECOMING SCT-
BKN BY THE END OF THE FCST PD. OROGRAPHIC TURBC WILL REMAIN NIL-
LGT AND THERMAL TURBC WILL BE LGT AT TIMES 17Z-24Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WITH MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORDS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH THIN CLOUDS BY
SUNDAY. MONDAY A FAST MOVING PACIFIC FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GIVING US A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
WITH DEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOW RH AND OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AT THAT TIME. AFTERNOONS LOOK
BREEZY BUT STILL NO BIG WIND EVENTS. MEAN RH VALUES WILL RANGE IN
THE 5% TO 15% OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  87  60  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           50  84  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              48  85  53  82  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              46  84  53  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              45  63  43  59  41 /   0   0   0  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  83  54  79  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SILVER CITY             47  76  51  73  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEMING                  43  85  53  84  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LORDSBURG               44  84  50  82  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  87  61  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
DELL CITY               47  87  52  80  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            52  89  59  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              55  80  55  78  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  54  88  59  83  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            51  86  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  84  58  82  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           42  84  46  82  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
HATCH                   47  85  52  82  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS                47  84  55  83  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
OROGRANDE               51  84  56  82  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 48  73  45  68  46 /   0   0   0  10  20
MESCALERO               44  72  43  68  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                46  72  45  69  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 43  76  47  71  43 /   0   0   0  10  10
HILLSBORO               50  81  53  77  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPACEPORT               46  84  49  81  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            41  75  45  71  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
HURLEY                  46  79  50  76  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
CLIFF                   42  82  49  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              35  80  41  78  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  79  52  76  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
ANIMAS                  46  84  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 43  85  50  83  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          43  84  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              44  81  51  78  47 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN/20-NOVLAN





000
FXUS64 KFWD 282051
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1233 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
DRY...STABLE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
SUPPORT AROUND 10KTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND AT ALL SITES THRU
SUNSET...WITH BACKING AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. S-SELY
WINDS 10-13KTS WILL RETURN BY 15Z SUN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDR

BRADSHAW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74  63 /   0   5  30  20  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76  62 /   0   5  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71  58 /   0   5  40  30  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73  61 /   0   5  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72  62 /   0   5  30  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74  63 /   0   5  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73  61 /   0   5  30  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75  61 /   0   5  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76  62 /   0   5  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

66/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 282051
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1233 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
DRY...STABLE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
SUPPORT AROUND 10KTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND AT ALL SITES THRU
SUNSET...WITH BACKING AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. S-SELY
WINDS 10-13KTS WILL RETURN BY 15Z SUN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDR

BRADSHAW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74  63 /   0   5  30  20  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76  62 /   0   5  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71  58 /   0   5  40  30  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73  61 /   0   5  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72  62 /   0   5  30  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74  63 /   0   5  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73  61 /   0   5  30  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75  61 /   0   5  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76  62 /   0   5  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

66/58



000
FXUS64 KFWD 282051
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1233 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
DRY...STABLE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
SUPPORT AROUND 10KTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND AT ALL SITES THRU
SUNSET...WITH BACKING AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. S-SELY
WINDS 10-13KTS WILL RETURN BY 15Z SUN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDR

BRADSHAW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74  63 /   0   5  30  20  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76  62 /   0   5  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71  58 /   0   5  40  30  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73  61 /   0   5  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72  62 /   0   5  30  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74  63 /   0   5  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73  61 /   0   5  30  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75  61 /   0   5  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76  62 /   0   5  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

66/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 282051
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
351 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF 3 PM. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING THEM A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BUT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT THAN WE
HAD LAST NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE DOWN TO NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF US 287 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1233 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
DRY...STABLE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
SUPPORT AROUND 10KTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND AT ALL SITES THRU
SUNSET...WITH BACKING AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. S-SELY
WINDS 10-13KTS WILL RETURN BY 15Z SUN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDR

BRADSHAW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  84  59  74  63 /   0   5  30  20  20
WACO, TX              54  85  61  76  62 /   0   5  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             48  78  56  71  58 /   0   5  40  30  30
DENTON, TX            54  83  57  73  61 /   0   5  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          53  81  58  72  62 /   0   5  30  30  30
DALLAS, TX            55  83  60  74  63 /   0   5  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           55  82  59  73  61 /   0   5  30  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         55  82  61  75  61 /   0   5  20  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            52  84  61  76  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  88  58  76  62 /   0   5  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

66/58



000
FXUS64 KAMA 282050
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELDS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED AS ONLY WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WAS PRESENT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A PERIOD OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH RESULTED IN STRONGER
WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN FIELDS. ANY BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
MEAN WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES...ORGANIZED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD HAPPEN PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
POSITION OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.

CONFIDENCE IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES EVOLVE MID WEEK IS A LITTLE LESS
THEN DESIRABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK
LEE LOW TO EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH STRONGER LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  73  42  73  50 /   0   0   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  49  73  41  76  47 /   0   0   0   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              49  69  42  74  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
BORGER TX                  50  75  45  75  53 /   0   0   0   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              47  75  43  76  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
CANYON TX                  47  74  42  73  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               48  76  43  72  50 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 44  71  41  75  46 /   0   0   0   5   5
GUYMON OK                  49  72  42  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                44  74  40  73  47 /   0   0   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                50  74  43  74  50 /   0   0   0   5   0
PAMPA TX                   50  72  43  72  49 /   0   0   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                49  77  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              50  79  48  75  54 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/17





000
FXUS64 KAMA 282050
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELDS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED AS ONLY WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WAS PRESENT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A PERIOD OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH RESULTED IN STRONGER
WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN FIELDS. ANY BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
MEAN WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES...ORGANIZED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD HAPPEN PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
POSITION OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.

CONFIDENCE IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES EVOLVE MID WEEK IS A LITTLE LESS
THEN DESIRABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK
LEE LOW TO EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH STRONGER LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  73  42  73  50 /   0   0   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  49  73  41  76  47 /   0   0   0   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              49  69  42  74  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
BORGER TX                  50  75  45  75  53 /   0   0   0   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              47  75  43  76  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
CANYON TX                  47  74  42  73  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               48  76  43  72  50 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 44  71  41  75  46 /   0   0   0   5   5
GUYMON OK                  49  72  42  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                44  74  40  73  47 /   0   0   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                50  74  43  74  50 /   0   0   0   5   0
PAMPA TX                   50  72  43  72  49 /   0   0   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                49  77  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              50  79  48  75  54 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 282050
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELDS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED AS ONLY WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WAS PRESENT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A PERIOD OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH RESULTED IN STRONGER
WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN FIELDS. ANY BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
MEAN WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES...ORGANIZED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD HAPPEN PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
POSITION OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.

CONFIDENCE IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES EVOLVE MID WEEK IS A LITTLE LESS
THEN DESIRABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK
LEE LOW TO EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH STRONGER LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  73  42  73  50 /   0   0   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  49  73  41  76  47 /   0   0   0   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              49  69  42  74  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
BORGER TX                  50  75  45  75  53 /   0   0   0   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              47  75  43  76  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
CANYON TX                  47  74  42  73  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               48  76  43  72  50 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 44  71  41  75  46 /   0   0   0   5   5
GUYMON OK                  49  72  42  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                44  74  40  73  47 /   0   0   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                50  74  43  74  50 /   0   0   0   5   0
PAMPA TX                   50  72  43  72  49 /   0   0   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                49  77  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              50  79  48  75  54 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/17





000
FXUS64 KAMA 282050
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELDS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED AS ONLY WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WAS PRESENT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A PERIOD OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH RESULTED IN STRONGER
WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN FIELDS. ANY BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
MEAN WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES...ORGANIZED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD HAPPEN PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
POSITION OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.

CONFIDENCE IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES EVOLVE MID WEEK IS A LITTLE LESS
THEN DESIRABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK
LEE LOW TO EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH STRONGER LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  73  42  73  50 /   0   0   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  49  73  41  76  47 /   0   0   0   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              49  69  42  74  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
BORGER TX                  50  75  45  75  53 /   0   0   0   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              47  75  43  76  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
CANYON TX                  47  74  42  73  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               48  76  43  72  50 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 44  71  41  75  46 /   0   0   0   5   5
GUYMON OK                  49  72  42  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                44  74  40  73  47 /   0   0   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                50  74  43  74  50 /   0   0   0   5   0
PAMPA TX                   50  72  43  72  49 /   0   0   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                49  77  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              50  79  48  75  54 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/17





000
FXUS64 KAMA 282050
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELDS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED AS ONLY WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WAS PRESENT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A PERIOD OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH RESULTED IN STRONGER
WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN FIELDS. ANY BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
MEAN WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES...ORGANIZED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD HAPPEN PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
POSITION OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.

CONFIDENCE IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES EVOLVE MID WEEK IS A LITTLE LESS
THEN DESIRABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK
LEE LOW TO EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH STRONGER LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  73  42  73  50 /   0   0   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  49  73  41  76  47 /   0   0   0   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              49  69  42  74  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
BORGER TX                  50  75  45  75  53 /   0   0   0   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              47  75  43  76  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
CANYON TX                  47  74  42  73  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               48  76  43  72  50 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 44  71  41  75  46 /   0   0   0   5   5
GUYMON OK                  49  72  42  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                44  74  40  73  47 /   0   0   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                50  74  43  74  50 /   0   0   0   5   0
PAMPA TX                   50  72  43  72  49 /   0   0   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                49  77  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              50  79  48  75  54 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/17





000
FXUS64 KAMA 282050
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE RAP SEEMED TO BEST REPRESENT SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELDS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED AS ONLY WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WAS PRESENT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOMORROW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A PERIOD OF
ISALLOBARIC WIND SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH. PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT AS INTENSE AS
PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS WEEK WHICH RESULTED IN STRONGER
WINDS AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST NEAR OPEN FIELDS. ANY BLOWING
DUST SHOULD BE LOCALIZED AND RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY AND EVOLVE INTO A
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STRENGTHENING
MEAN WESTERLIES WILL RESULT IN A SHARPENING OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH
AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER DEW POINTS TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS BENEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW AS A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES...ORGANIZED ISOLATED/SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. THIS WOULD HAPPEN PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
POSITION OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.

CONFIDENCE IN HOW SURFACE FEATURES EVOLVE MID WEEK IS A LITTLE LESS
THEN DESIRABLE AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A WEAK
LEE LOW TO EVOLVE AND SHIFT EASTWARD LEADING TO DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH STRONGER LEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AS A
TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 20 FOOT
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL TO A MINIMUM OF AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  73  42  73  50 /   0   0   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  49  73  41  76  47 /   0   0   0   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              49  69  42  74  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
BORGER TX                  50  75  45  75  53 /   0   0   0   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              47  75  43  76  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
CANYON TX                  47  74  42  73  48 /   0   0   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               48  76  43  72  50 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 44  71  41  75  46 /   0   0   0   5   5
GUYMON OK                  49  72  42  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                44  74  40  73  47 /   0   0   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                50  74  43  74  50 /   0   0   0   5   0
PAMPA TX                   50  72  43  72  49 /   0   0   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                49  77  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              50  79  48  75  54 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/17





000
FXUS64 KSJT 282028
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
328 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Temperatures across west central Texas have warmed into the lower
to middle 80s at mid-afternoon. Shortwave upper ridge over the
Desert Southwest will shift east into Texas on Sunday. With south-
southwest low-level flow, our above normal temperatures will
continue, and to a greater extent on Sunday. Wind speeds will
decrease this evening, but should have some increase overnight in
the favored areas near/downstream of the higher terrain with low-
level jet developing. Overnight low temperatures are expected to
range from around 50 along the I-10 corridor, to the upper
50s/near 60 degrees in our northern counties.

With an upper trough moving southeast across the upper Midwest on
Sunday, trailing portion of associated cold front will move south
into our far north and northwest counties by early Sunday evening.
Strong 850mb thermal ridging pattern is indicated just ahead of
this front with compressional warming effects. With this pattern
and sunny skies, temperatures are expected to soar into the lower
90s for highs across much of the Big Country and Concho Valley
areas (including Abilene, Sweetwater, Ballinger and San Angelo),
with mid-90s possible at a few locations. Having mentioned this,
the record highs for Sunday (96 degrees at Abilene and 97 at San
Angelo) look safe and are expected to hold. South-southwest winds
will continue ahead of the front. Winds will shift to the north
with the frontal passage late in the day across the far
north/northwest part of our area (Haskell, Throckmorton, Fisher
and Jones Counties).

19

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

An upper level trough is currently in place over the eastern U.
S. with a ridge breaking down over the western states, and Texas
under northwest flow. There is a compact upper level low west of
the southern California coast.

As the upper level low out over the Pacific approaches the area
Monday night into Tuesday, rain chances will come into the picture.
Both the GFS and ECMWF weaken the low, flattening it into an open
wave. However, the GFS suppresses the best lift to our south, and
the ECMWF is more amplified with the system as a whole. Thus, the
ECMWF leads to more synoptic lift, and better rain chances/higher
rainfall amounts for our area than does the GFS. Trends remained
generally similar to previous models runs, bringing in rain
chances Monday night into Tuesday, so no significant changes were
made to the forecast, keep at least slight chances in from Monday
night through Tuesday night.

The GFS develops a large trough across the western U. S. at the
end of the week with southwest flow over Texas. A shortwave will
move across the central plains region Thursday night into Friday,
sending a cold front into Texas. The GFS develops precipitation
Saturday into Saturday night across the area associated with
shortwave impulses embedded in the southwest flow, and the cold
front entering the area. While this can`t be ruled out, timing
these shortwaves and cold fronts 6 to 7 days in advance is very
tricky, so have not gone higher than slight chance PoPs at the end
of the forecast. Temperatures behind the cold front Saturday look
to be significantly cooler, with highs only in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees.

In between these two potential rain chances, zonal flow and a
strengthening low level thermal ridge will lead to warming
temperatures through the middle of the work week. Medium range MOS
guidance from the GFS warms San Angelo into the upper 90s, and
Abilene into the mid to upper 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. And
although we should bounce back quickly from the cold front that
moves through the area Sunday night/Monday morning, we are not
expecting mid to upper 90s by the second half of the week, and
have tempered highs significantly from the very warm MEX numbers.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  92  53  77  59 /   0   0   0  10  20
San Angelo  56  94  53  80  60 /   0   0   0   5  20
Junction  52  87  54  80  60 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 282028
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
328 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Temperatures across west central Texas have warmed into the lower
to middle 80s at mid-afternoon. Shortwave upper ridge over the
Desert Southwest will shift east into Texas on Sunday. With south-
southwest low-level flow, our above normal temperatures will
continue, and to a greater extent on Sunday. Wind speeds will
decrease this evening, but should have some increase overnight in
the favored areas near/downstream of the higher terrain with low-
level jet developing. Overnight low temperatures are expected to
range from around 50 along the I-10 corridor, to the upper
50s/near 60 degrees in our northern counties.

With an upper trough moving southeast across the upper Midwest on
Sunday, trailing portion of associated cold front will move south
into our far north and northwest counties by early Sunday evening.
Strong 850mb thermal ridging pattern is indicated just ahead of
this front with compressional warming effects. With this pattern
and sunny skies, temperatures are expected to soar into the lower
90s for highs across much of the Big Country and Concho Valley
areas (including Abilene, Sweetwater, Ballinger and San Angelo),
with mid-90s possible at a few locations. Having mentioned this,
the record highs for Sunday (96 degrees at Abilene and 97 at San
Angelo) look safe and are expected to hold. South-southwest winds
will continue ahead of the front. Winds will shift to the north
with the frontal passage late in the day across the far
north/northwest part of our area (Haskell, Throckmorton, Fisher
and Jones Counties).

19

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

An upper level trough is currently in place over the eastern U.
S. with a ridge breaking down over the western states, and Texas
under northwest flow. There is a compact upper level low west of
the southern California coast.

As the upper level low out over the Pacific approaches the area
Monday night into Tuesday, rain chances will come into the picture.
Both the GFS and ECMWF weaken the low, flattening it into an open
wave. However, the GFS suppresses the best lift to our south, and
the ECMWF is more amplified with the system as a whole. Thus, the
ECMWF leads to more synoptic lift, and better rain chances/higher
rainfall amounts for our area than does the GFS. Trends remained
generally similar to previous models runs, bringing in rain
chances Monday night into Tuesday, so no significant changes were
made to the forecast, keep at least slight chances in from Monday
night through Tuesday night.

The GFS develops a large trough across the western U. S. at the
end of the week with southwest flow over Texas. A shortwave will
move across the central plains region Thursday night into Friday,
sending a cold front into Texas. The GFS develops precipitation
Saturday into Saturday night across the area associated with
shortwave impulses embedded in the southwest flow, and the cold
front entering the area. While this can`t be ruled out, timing
these shortwaves and cold fronts 6 to 7 days in advance is very
tricky, so have not gone higher than slight chance PoPs at the end
of the forecast. Temperatures behind the cold front Saturday look
to be significantly cooler, with highs only in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees.

In between these two potential rain chances, zonal flow and a
strengthening low level thermal ridge will lead to warming
temperatures through the middle of the work week. Medium range MOS
guidance from the GFS warms San Angelo into the upper 90s, and
Abilene into the mid to upper 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. And
although we should bounce back quickly from the cold front that
moves through the area Sunday night/Monday morning, we are not
expecting mid to upper 90s by the second half of the week, and
have tempered highs significantly from the very warm MEX numbers.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  92  53  77  59 /   0   0   0  10  20
San Angelo  56  94  53  80  60 /   0   0   0   5  20
Junction  52  87  54  80  60 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 282011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  87  49  72  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              55  94  54  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                43  88  46  76  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  54  94  56  78  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           55  91  50  76  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  84  52  75  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   52  86  46  69  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   40  83  41  78  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    53  91  49  73  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  91  52  72  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    46  91  53  73  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 282011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  87  49  72  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              55  94  54  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                43  88  46  76  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  54  94  56  78  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           55  91  50  76  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  84  52  75  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   52  86  46  69  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   40  83  41  78  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    53  91  49  73  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  91  52  72  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    46  91  53  73  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 282011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  87  49  72  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              55  94  54  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                43  88  46  76  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  54  94  56  78  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           55  91  50  76  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  84  52  75  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   52  86  46  69  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   40  83  41  78  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    53  91  49  73  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  91  52  72  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    46  91  53  73  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/44

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 282010
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

.LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  74  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  82  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  83  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  85  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  89  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 282010
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

.LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  74  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  82  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  83  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  85  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  89  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 282010
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

.LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  74  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  82  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  83  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  85  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  89  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 282010
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

.LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  74  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  82  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  83  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  85  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  89  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 282010
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

.LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  74  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  82  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  83  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  85  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  89  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05



000
FXUS64 KLUB 282010
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

.LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  74  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  82  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  83  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  85  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  89  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05



000
FXUS64 KCRP 282006
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  84  67  83  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          58  83  64  82  65  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  90  65  89  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             57  87  65  86  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  79  67  80  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  88  64  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        60  86  66  85  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       65  79  68  80  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 282006
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  84  67  83  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          58  83  64  82  65  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  90  65  89  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             57  87  65  86  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  79  67  80  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  88  64  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        60  86  66  85  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       65  79  68  80  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KCRP 282006
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  84  67  83  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          58  83  64  82  65  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  90  65  89  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             57  87  65  86  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  79  67  80  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  88  64  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        60  86  66  85  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       65  79  68  80  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 282006
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT YET SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 10 MPH. FURTHER DECOUPLING IS POSSIBLE FROM ALICE TO
VICTORIA WHERE A LIGHT HAZE/FOG MAY BE OBSERVED BRIEFLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE COAST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WITH A LOW
LEVEL 30-40KT JET DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NORMAL DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE MID MORNING WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL THEN TAKE OVER KEEPING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 20-25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
MAY BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER WEST...AS A MOSTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH WARMER H85 TEMPS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN NEAR
90 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. THINGS WILL CALM DOWN HEADING INTO
THE EVENING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AREA-WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FORECAST ISSUES OF THE DAY
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME IN THE LONG TERM YESTERDAY...TIMING OF UPPER
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THEN TIMING OF FRONT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
FIRST...TIMING OF DISTURBANCE. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WAS
GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT
DECIDED TO SEPARATE MORNING AFTERNOON POP GRIDS IN ORDER TO BETTER
FIT SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...HAVE BETTER RAIN CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS HAVE IN THE AFTERNOON (AND AFTERNOON POPS MAY BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON THAT. OTHERWISE...NOT A
LOT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE ONE GOING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
HIGHS/LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BASED ON 850MB AND NEAR SURFACE MODEL
TEMPERATURES (SEEM TO LINE UP OK WITH PREVIOUS OFFICES)...ALONG WITH
FRONTAL TIMING DISCUSSED BELOW. EXCEPT FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA/SCEC.

FOR THE FRONT ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN
HANDLING THIS FRONT COMING DOWN LATE FRIDAY AND IMPACTING AREA ON
SATURDAY. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER. HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH KEWX TO THE
NORTH (WHICH ALSO DISCUSSED THIS WITH KHGX TO OUR NE)...WILL GO MORE
WITH THE CONSENSUS RAW DATA FOR MAIN PARAMETERS. DID INCLUDE A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. WITH THIS BEING
AN APRIL FORECAST IN ESSENCE...THE FRONTAL TIMINGS MAY GET A LITTLE
TRICKY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGES BECOME EITHER
RARE OR WEAK. OVERALL...FORECAST FITS WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  84  67  83  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          58  83  64  82  65  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  90  65  89  69  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             57  87  65  86  67  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  79  67  80  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  88  64  87  66  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        60  86  66  85  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       65  79  68  80  69  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM








000
FXUS64 KBRO 282003
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  63  79  68  78 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          63  84  67  84 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            62  84  66  85 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              61  86  67  88 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      60  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   68  77  69  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT/LONG TERM...55/59
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BILLINGS/BIRCHFIELD




000
FXUS64 KEWX 281959
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
259 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A BREEZY AND WARM DAY TODAY SHOULD BE DUPLICATED SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY
MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ADD TO INCREASED MOISTURE
KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE DESPITE A WARMING TREND ON
MORNING LOWS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH A LAYER OF MORNING CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG AND N OF THE
ESCARPMENT BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. THIS
WIDENS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN CHANCES...WHILE
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY OF BEST TIMING. THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES
THE SHIFT OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SLIGHLTY FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY. THURSDAY STILL
LOOKS DRY...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT. WITH THE OVERALL SLOWING TRENDS OF MODEL INDICATED
PATTERNS...THE ADJUSTMENTS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY. THE GFS
HAS MADE A MORE DRAMATIC SHIFT TO FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE FRIDAY...SO
WILL KEEP WITH A MORE CONSENSUS FRIENDLY ECMWF MODEL DEPICTING A
MIDDAY PASSAGE. WITH LITTLE INDICATIONS OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL CAP POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES AT 20
PERCENT...AND SHUN THE GFS WHICH SHOWS AGRESSIVE MOISTURE POOLING
OVER THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  84  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  83  61  78  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     52  82  61  79  61 /   0   0  10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  82  60  76  60 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           56  88  62  81  64 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  82  61  77  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  85  60  82  62 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  82  60  79  61 /   0   0  10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  82  61  80  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           54  84  60  81  62 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12



000
FXUS64 KHGX 281957
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
257 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO
BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
STRONG. AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT...FEEL THE AIR WILL
SATURATE AND CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER FOR A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 10-15Z
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WARM A BIT ON
SUNDAY AND COUPLED WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S. ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL
ERODE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TOWARD THE SURFACE. CLOUDS RETURN
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LINGER MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS SE TX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ON
MONDAY BUT ALSO SHOW A SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE CAP. CAN`T RULE
OUT SOME WEAK SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF
CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TOO DRY WITH PW
VALUES ONLY REACHING 1.10 INCHES. CAPPING LOOKS WEAKER BUT THE
MEAGER MOISTURE LEVELS AND VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 850 MB SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY CARRY 20 POPS FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH SE TX ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING AND QPF
OUTPUT WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER...DRIER AND OVERALL JUST MORE
BENIGN. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH BETTER JET DYNAMICS WITH SE TX LYING IN
A LFQ WHILE THE GFS PLACES SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF THE JET.
PW VALUES ALSO DIFFER WITH THE GFS PW VALUES AT 1.3O INCHES WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS VALUES REACHING 1.60 INCHES. THE ECMWF SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB WHILE THE
GFS DOES NOT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EC SINCE THE CANADIAN NOW
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF AND THE EC HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST 3-4 DAYS. BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT ON THU/FRI WILL BE W-SW BECOMING MORE SW WITH TIME.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW USUALLY KEEPS THINGS CLOUDY WITH SCT SHRA AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA. YET FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AND MEAGER PWATS. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR THU/FRI BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MAYBE
LOWISH POPS ARE NEEDED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX NEXT
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. 43

&&

.MARINE...
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WESTERN TEXAS TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE...SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF GENERALLY 10-15 KT ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER OFFSHORE SEAS BY ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN
OFFSHORE WATERS TO MENTION A DECENT CHANCE FOR A SHORT FUSE CAUTION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORM
CHANCES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PASSES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      56  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 281957
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
257 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO
BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
STRONG. AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT...FEEL THE AIR WILL
SATURATE AND CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER FOR A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 10-15Z
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WARM A BIT ON
SUNDAY AND COUPLED WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S. ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL
ERODE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TOWARD THE SURFACE. CLOUDS RETURN
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LINGER MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS SE TX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ON
MONDAY BUT ALSO SHOW A SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE CAP. CAN`T RULE
OUT SOME WEAK SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF
CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TOO DRY WITH PW
VALUES ONLY REACHING 1.10 INCHES. CAPPING LOOKS WEAKER BUT THE
MEAGER MOISTURE LEVELS AND VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 850 MB SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY CARRY 20 POPS FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH SE TX ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING AND QPF
OUTPUT WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER...DRIER AND OVERALL JUST MORE
BENIGN. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH BETTER JET DYNAMICS WITH SE TX LYING IN
A LFQ WHILE THE GFS PLACES SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF THE JET.
PW VALUES ALSO DIFFER WITH THE GFS PW VALUES AT 1.3O INCHES WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS VALUES REACHING 1.60 INCHES. THE ECMWF SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB WHILE THE
GFS DOES NOT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EC SINCE THE CANADIAN NOW
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF AND THE EC HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST 3-4 DAYS. BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT ON THU/FRI WILL BE W-SW BECOMING MORE SW WITH TIME.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW USUALLY KEEPS THINGS CLOUDY WITH SCT SHRA AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA. YET FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AND MEAGER PWATS. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR THU/FRI BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MAYBE
LOWISH POPS ARE NEEDED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX NEXT
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. 43

&&

.MARINE...
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WESTERN TEXAS TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE...SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF GENERALLY 10-15 KT ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER OFFSHORE SEAS BY ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN
OFFSHORE WATERS TO MENTION A DECENT CHANCE FOR A SHORT FUSE CAUTION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORM
CHANCES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PASSES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      56  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 281957
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
257 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO
BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
STRONG. AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT...FEEL THE AIR WILL
SATURATE AND CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER FOR A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 10-15Z
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WARM A BIT ON
SUNDAY AND COUPLED WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S. ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL
ERODE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TOWARD THE SURFACE. CLOUDS RETURN
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LINGER MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS SE TX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ON
MONDAY BUT ALSO SHOW A SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE CAP. CAN`T RULE
OUT SOME WEAK SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF
CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TOO DRY WITH PW
VALUES ONLY REACHING 1.10 INCHES. CAPPING LOOKS WEAKER BUT THE
MEAGER MOISTURE LEVELS AND VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 850 MB SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY CARRY 20 POPS FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH SE TX ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING AND QPF
OUTPUT WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER...DRIER AND OVERALL JUST MORE
BENIGN. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH BETTER JET DYNAMICS WITH SE TX LYING IN
A LFQ WHILE THE GFS PLACES SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF THE JET.
PW VALUES ALSO DIFFER WITH THE GFS PW VALUES AT 1.3O INCHES WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS VALUES REACHING 1.60 INCHES. THE ECMWF SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB WHILE THE
GFS DOES NOT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EC SINCE THE CANADIAN NOW
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF AND THE EC HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST 3-4 DAYS. BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT ON THU/FRI WILL BE W-SW BECOMING MORE SW WITH TIME.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW USUALLY KEEPS THINGS CLOUDY WITH SCT SHRA AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA. YET FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AND MEAGER PWATS. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR THU/FRI BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MAYBE
LOWISH POPS ARE NEEDED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX NEXT
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. 43

&&

.MARINE...
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WESTERN TEXAS TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE...SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF GENERALLY 10-15 KT ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER OFFSHORE SEAS BY ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN
OFFSHORE WATERS TO MENTION A DECENT CHANCE FOR A SHORT FUSE CAUTION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORM
CHANCES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PASSES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      56  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 281957
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
257 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 2 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS IN PLACE THIS EVENING. IT WILL ALSO
BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
STRONG. AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL OVERNIGHT...FEEL THE AIR WILL
SATURATE AND CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER FOR A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 10-15Z
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. 850 TEMPS WARM A BIT ON
SUNDAY AND COUPLED WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S. ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL
ERODE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TOWARD THE SURFACE. CLOUDS RETURN
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL LINGER MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS SE TX. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT CAP IN PLACE ON
MONDAY BUT ALSO SHOW A SATURATED LAYER BENEATH THE CAP. CAN`T RULE
OUT SOME WEAK SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF
CLOSER TO THE DISTURBANCE. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TOO DRY WITH PW
VALUES ONLY REACHING 1.10 INCHES. CAPPING LOOKS WEAKER BUT THE
MEAGER MOISTURE LEVELS AND VERY DRY LAYER ABOVE 850 MB SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND WILL ONLY CARRY 20 POPS FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH SE TX ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING AND QPF
OUTPUT WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER...DRIER AND OVERALL JUST MORE
BENIGN. THE ECMWF HAS MUCH BETTER JET DYNAMICS WITH SE TX LYING IN
A LFQ WHILE THE GFS PLACES SE TX IN A SUBSIDENT REGION OF THE JET.
PW VALUES ALSO DIFFER WITH THE GFS PW VALUES AT 1.3O INCHES WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS VALUES REACHING 1.60 INCHES. THE ECMWF SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW A SATURATED PROFILE FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB WHILE THE
GFS DOES NOT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE EC SINCE THE CANADIAN NOW
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF AND THE EC HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST 3-4 DAYS. BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT ON THU/FRI WILL BE W-SW BECOMING MORE SW WITH TIME.
THIS TYPE OF FLOW USUALLY KEEPS THINGS CLOUDY WITH SCT SHRA AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA. YET FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A CAP IN PLACE AND MEAGER PWATS. HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
GRIDS FOR THU/FRI BUT THE FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST THAT MAYBE
LOWISH POPS ARE NEEDED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SE TX NEXT
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. 43

&&

.MARINE...
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN EASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE AND
WESTERN TEXAS TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE...SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF GENERALLY 10-15 KT ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER OFFSHORE SEAS BY ANOTHER COUPLE OF FEET THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN
OFFSHORE WATERS TO MENTION A DECENT CHANCE FOR A SHORT FUSE CAUTION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORM
CHANCES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PASSES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      56  82  62  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 281749 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1249 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours, with
clear skies expected. Gusty south-southwest winds have developed
and will continue this afternoon. Wind speeds will decrease by
this evening, but gusts are possible overnight at KABI and to a
lesser extent at KSJT. South-southwest winds are expected on
Sunday morning, and could be somewhat gusty at KABI and KSJT.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Winds will increase from the south-southwest today...topping out
at 12-15 kts...gusting over 20 kts at times. Expect winds to
diminish around 00z, but gusts will be possible overnight at KABI,
and to a lesser extent at KSJT. VFR conditions will prevail with
mostly clear skies.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Yesterday`s back-door cold front stalled across the northeast half
of the CWA and is currently lifting back north as a warm front.
This is in response to lee cyclogenesis associated with the weak
mid- level wave crossing the southern High Plains. South winds
have resumed along the I-20 corridor, coincident with a slight
reduction in dewpoints. Skies remain mostly clear, other than some
thin high clouds moving southeast from the Panhandle into north
TX.

Skies will remain mostly sunny over the next 24 hours, promoting
strong diurnal heating this afternoon. Insolation will get a boost
from slight compressional heating via southwesterly, downslope
winds. This will push afternoon temperatures well into the 80s,
with a few locations potentially reaching 90 degrees. The GFS
statistical guidance has shown a warm bias over the past several
weeks and today looks to be no different. A few degrees were
shaved off of the MAV. Southerly winds will continue tonight,
decreasing this evening as a surface trough stalls on the northern
fringes of the CWA. Winds will increase again overnight in the
favored areas near and downstream of the higher terrain as the
low-level jet intensifies. Expect overnight lows ranging from the
low 50s along the I-10 corridor to near 60 degrees along
Interstate 20.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

The forecast area will be on the eastern flank of an upper ridge
with a northwest flow aloft on Sunday. The 850mb thermal ridge
will run through the Concho Valley and northeast through the Big
Country with afternoon highs around the 90 degree mark in those
area. The remainder of West Central Texas will see mid to upper
80s for afternoon highs . Winds will be southwesterly ahead of a
weak cold front that will enter the northern Big Country after the
time of peak heating. The cold front may make it as far south as
the Interstate 20 corridor before washing out. An increase in
cloud cover and the thermal ridge backing well west of the
forecast area will keep afternoon highs on Tuesday in the 70s,
closer to seasonal norms.

An upper low west of the Baja Monday morning will open as it moves
over northern Mexico with the resultant upper trough moving over
West Texas by Tuesday morning. The latest GFS brings the trough
further south than previous runs with the best rainfall chances
along and south of Interstate 10. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms over most of the forecast area overnight Monday with
chances increasing during the day on Tuesday as the upper trough
moves east through the area. By late Tuesday the upper trough will
stretch from deep south Texas northeast over eastern Texas with
rainfall chances for the CWA ending from west to east Tuesday
night.

Afternoon highs on Tuesday will continue in the 70s, warming into
the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front passing south through
the area late Thursday will drop afternoon highs on Friday back
into the 70s. Morning lows will remain in the 50s through the end
of the week.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  88  59  92  53  77 /   0   0   0   5  10
San Angelo  89  56  94  53  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
Junction  86  52  87  54  80 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 281749 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1249 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours, with
clear skies expected. Gusty south-southwest winds have developed
and will continue this afternoon. Wind speeds will decrease by
this evening, but gusts are possible overnight at KABI and to a
lesser extent at KSJT. South-southwest winds are expected on
Sunday morning, and could be somewhat gusty at KABI and KSJT.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Winds will increase from the south-southwest today...topping out
at 12-15 kts...gusting over 20 kts at times. Expect winds to
diminish around 00z, but gusts will be possible overnight at KABI,
and to a lesser extent at KSJT. VFR conditions will prevail with
mostly clear skies.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Yesterday`s back-door cold front stalled across the northeast half
of the CWA and is currently lifting back north as a warm front.
This is in response to lee cyclogenesis associated with the weak
mid- level wave crossing the southern High Plains. South winds
have resumed along the I-20 corridor, coincident with a slight
reduction in dewpoints. Skies remain mostly clear, other than some
thin high clouds moving southeast from the Panhandle into north
TX.

Skies will remain mostly sunny over the next 24 hours, promoting
strong diurnal heating this afternoon. Insolation will get a boost
from slight compressional heating via southwesterly, downslope
winds. This will push afternoon temperatures well into the 80s,
with a few locations potentially reaching 90 degrees. The GFS
statistical guidance has shown a warm bias over the past several
weeks and today looks to be no different. A few degrees were
shaved off of the MAV. Southerly winds will continue tonight,
decreasing this evening as a surface trough stalls on the northern
fringes of the CWA. Winds will increase again overnight in the
favored areas near and downstream of the higher terrain as the
low-level jet intensifies. Expect overnight lows ranging from the
low 50s along the I-10 corridor to near 60 degrees along
Interstate 20.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

The forecast area will be on the eastern flank of an upper ridge
with a northwest flow aloft on Sunday. The 850mb thermal ridge
will run through the Concho Valley and northeast through the Big
Country with afternoon highs around the 90 degree mark in those
area. The remainder of West Central Texas will see mid to upper
80s for afternoon highs . Winds will be southwesterly ahead of a
weak cold front that will enter the northern Big Country after the
time of peak heating. The cold front may make it as far south as
the Interstate 20 corridor before washing out. An increase in
cloud cover and the thermal ridge backing well west of the
forecast area will keep afternoon highs on Tuesday in the 70s,
closer to seasonal norms.

An upper low west of the Baja Monday morning will open as it moves
over northern Mexico with the resultant upper trough moving over
West Texas by Tuesday morning. The latest GFS brings the trough
further south than previous runs with the best rainfall chances
along and south of Interstate 10. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms over most of the forecast area overnight Monday with
chances increasing during the day on Tuesday as the upper trough
moves east through the area. By late Tuesday the upper trough will
stretch from deep south Texas northeast over eastern Texas with
rainfall chances for the CWA ending from west to east Tuesday
night.

Afternoon highs on Tuesday will continue in the 70s, warming into
the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front passing south through
the area late Thursday will drop afternoon highs on Friday back
into the 70s. Morning lows will remain in the 50s through the end
of the week.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  88  59  92  53  77 /   0   0   0   5  10
San Angelo  89  56  94  53  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
Junction  86  52  87  54  80 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 281749 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1249 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours, with
clear skies expected. Gusty south-southwest winds have developed
and will continue this afternoon. Wind speeds will decrease by
this evening, but gusts are possible overnight at KABI and to a
lesser extent at KSJT. South-southwest winds are expected on
Sunday morning, and could be somewhat gusty at KABI and KSJT.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Winds will increase from the south-southwest today...topping out
at 12-15 kts...gusting over 20 kts at times. Expect winds to
diminish around 00z, but gusts will be possible overnight at KABI,
and to a lesser extent at KSJT. VFR conditions will prevail with
mostly clear skies.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Yesterday`s back-door cold front stalled across the northeast half
of the CWA and is currently lifting back north as a warm front.
This is in response to lee cyclogenesis associated with the weak
mid- level wave crossing the southern High Plains. South winds
have resumed along the I-20 corridor, coincident with a slight
reduction in dewpoints. Skies remain mostly clear, other than some
thin high clouds moving southeast from the Panhandle into north
TX.

Skies will remain mostly sunny over the next 24 hours, promoting
strong diurnal heating this afternoon. Insolation will get a boost
from slight compressional heating via southwesterly, downslope
winds. This will push afternoon temperatures well into the 80s,
with a few locations potentially reaching 90 degrees. The GFS
statistical guidance has shown a warm bias over the past several
weeks and today looks to be no different. A few degrees were
shaved off of the MAV. Southerly winds will continue tonight,
decreasing this evening as a surface trough stalls on the northern
fringes of the CWA. Winds will increase again overnight in the
favored areas near and downstream of the higher terrain as the
low-level jet intensifies. Expect overnight lows ranging from the
low 50s along the I-10 corridor to near 60 degrees along
Interstate 20.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

The forecast area will be on the eastern flank of an upper ridge
with a northwest flow aloft on Sunday. The 850mb thermal ridge
will run through the Concho Valley and northeast through the Big
Country with afternoon highs around the 90 degree mark in those
area. The remainder of West Central Texas will see mid to upper
80s for afternoon highs . Winds will be southwesterly ahead of a
weak cold front that will enter the northern Big Country after the
time of peak heating. The cold front may make it as far south as
the Interstate 20 corridor before washing out. An increase in
cloud cover and the thermal ridge backing well west of the
forecast area will keep afternoon highs on Tuesday in the 70s,
closer to seasonal norms.

An upper low west of the Baja Monday morning will open as it moves
over northern Mexico with the resultant upper trough moving over
West Texas by Tuesday morning. The latest GFS brings the trough
further south than previous runs with the best rainfall chances
along and south of Interstate 10. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms over most of the forecast area overnight Monday with
chances increasing during the day on Tuesday as the upper trough
moves east through the area. By late Tuesday the upper trough will
stretch from deep south Texas northeast over eastern Texas with
rainfall chances for the CWA ending from west to east Tuesday
night.

Afternoon highs on Tuesday will continue in the 70s, warming into
the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front passing south through
the area late Thursday will drop afternoon highs on Friday back
into the 70s. Morning lows will remain in the 50s through the end
of the week.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  88  59  92  53  77 /   0   0   0   5  10
San Angelo  89  56  94  53  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
Junction  86  52  87  54  80 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 281749 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1249 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours, with
clear skies expected. Gusty south-southwest winds have developed
and will continue this afternoon. Wind speeds will decrease by
this evening, but gusts are possible overnight at KABI and to a
lesser extent at KSJT. South-southwest winds are expected on
Sunday morning, and could be somewhat gusty at KABI and KSJT.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Winds will increase from the south-southwest today...topping out
at 12-15 kts...gusting over 20 kts at times. Expect winds to
diminish around 00z, but gusts will be possible overnight at KABI,
and to a lesser extent at KSJT. VFR conditions will prevail with
mostly clear skies.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Yesterday`s back-door cold front stalled across the northeast half
of the CWA and is currently lifting back north as a warm front.
This is in response to lee cyclogenesis associated with the weak
mid- level wave crossing the southern High Plains. South winds
have resumed along the I-20 corridor, coincident with a slight
reduction in dewpoints. Skies remain mostly clear, other than some
thin high clouds moving southeast from the Panhandle into north
TX.

Skies will remain mostly sunny over the next 24 hours, promoting
strong diurnal heating this afternoon. Insolation will get a boost
from slight compressional heating via southwesterly, downslope
winds. This will push afternoon temperatures well into the 80s,
with a few locations potentially reaching 90 degrees. The GFS
statistical guidance has shown a warm bias over the past several
weeks and today looks to be no different. A few degrees were
shaved off of the MAV. Southerly winds will continue tonight,
decreasing this evening as a surface trough stalls on the northern
fringes of the CWA. Winds will increase again overnight in the
favored areas near and downstream of the higher terrain as the
low-level jet intensifies. Expect overnight lows ranging from the
low 50s along the I-10 corridor to near 60 degrees along
Interstate 20.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

The forecast area will be on the eastern flank of an upper ridge
with a northwest flow aloft on Sunday. The 850mb thermal ridge
will run through the Concho Valley and northeast through the Big
Country with afternoon highs around the 90 degree mark in those
area. The remainder of West Central Texas will see mid to upper
80s for afternoon highs . Winds will be southwesterly ahead of a
weak cold front that will enter the northern Big Country after the
time of peak heating. The cold front may make it as far south as
the Interstate 20 corridor before washing out. An increase in
cloud cover and the thermal ridge backing well west of the
forecast area will keep afternoon highs on Tuesday in the 70s,
closer to seasonal norms.

An upper low west of the Baja Monday morning will open as it moves
over northern Mexico with the resultant upper trough moving over
West Texas by Tuesday morning. The latest GFS brings the trough
further south than previous runs with the best rainfall chances
along and south of Interstate 10. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms over most of the forecast area overnight Monday with
chances increasing during the day on Tuesday as the upper trough
moves east through the area. By late Tuesday the upper trough will
stretch from deep south Texas northeast over eastern Texas with
rainfall chances for the CWA ending from west to east Tuesday
night.

Afternoon highs on Tuesday will continue in the 70s, warming into
the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front passing south through
the area late Thursday will drop afternoon highs on Friday back
into the 70s. Morning lows will remain in the 50s through the end
of the week.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  88  59  92  53  77 /   0   0   0   5  10
San Angelo  89  56  94  53  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
Junction  86  52  87  54  80 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 281749 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1249 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours, with
clear skies expected. Gusty south-southwest winds have developed
and will continue this afternoon. Wind speeds will decrease by
this evening, but gusts are possible overnight at KABI and to a
lesser extent at KSJT. South-southwest winds are expected on
Sunday morning, and could be somewhat gusty at KABI and KSJT.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Winds will increase from the south-southwest today...topping out
at 12-15 kts...gusting over 20 kts at times. Expect winds to
diminish around 00z, but gusts will be possible overnight at KABI,
and to a lesser extent at KSJT. VFR conditions will prevail with
mostly clear skies.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Yesterday`s back-door cold front stalled across the northeast half
of the CWA and is currently lifting back north as a warm front.
This is in response to lee cyclogenesis associated with the weak
mid- level wave crossing the southern High Plains. South winds
have resumed along the I-20 corridor, coincident with a slight
reduction in dewpoints. Skies remain mostly clear, other than some
thin high clouds moving southeast from the Panhandle into north
TX.

Skies will remain mostly sunny over the next 24 hours, promoting
strong diurnal heating this afternoon. Insolation will get a boost
from slight compressional heating via southwesterly, downslope
winds. This will push afternoon temperatures well into the 80s,
with a few locations potentially reaching 90 degrees. The GFS
statistical guidance has shown a warm bias over the past several
weeks and today looks to be no different. A few degrees were
shaved off of the MAV. Southerly winds will continue tonight,
decreasing this evening as a surface trough stalls on the northern
fringes of the CWA. Winds will increase again overnight in the
favored areas near and downstream of the higher terrain as the
low-level jet intensifies. Expect overnight lows ranging from the
low 50s along the I-10 corridor to near 60 degrees along
Interstate 20.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

The forecast area will be on the eastern flank of an upper ridge
with a northwest flow aloft on Sunday. The 850mb thermal ridge
will run through the Concho Valley and northeast through the Big
Country with afternoon highs around the 90 degree mark in those
area. The remainder of West Central Texas will see mid to upper
80s for afternoon highs . Winds will be southwesterly ahead of a
weak cold front that will enter the northern Big Country after the
time of peak heating. The cold front may make it as far south as
the Interstate 20 corridor before washing out. An increase in
cloud cover and the thermal ridge backing well west of the
forecast area will keep afternoon highs on Tuesday in the 70s,
closer to seasonal norms.

An upper low west of the Baja Monday morning will open as it moves
over northern Mexico with the resultant upper trough moving over
West Texas by Tuesday morning. The latest GFS brings the trough
further south than previous runs with the best rainfall chances
along and south of Interstate 10. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms over most of the forecast area overnight Monday with
chances increasing during the day on Tuesday as the upper trough
moves east through the area. By late Tuesday the upper trough will
stretch from deep south Texas northeast over eastern Texas with
rainfall chances for the CWA ending from west to east Tuesday
night.

Afternoon highs on Tuesday will continue in the 70s, warming into
the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front passing south through
the area late Thursday will drop afternoon highs on Friday back
into the 70s. Morning lows will remain in the 50s through the end
of the week.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  88  59  92  53  77 /   0   0   0   5  10
San Angelo  89  56  94  53  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
Junction  86  52  87  54  80 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 281749 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1249 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours, with
clear skies expected. Gusty south-southwest winds have developed
and will continue this afternoon. Wind speeds will decrease by
this evening, but gusts are possible overnight at KABI and to a
lesser extent at KSJT. South-southwest winds are expected on
Sunday morning, and could be somewhat gusty at KABI and KSJT.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Winds will increase from the south-southwest today...topping out
at 12-15 kts...gusting over 20 kts at times. Expect winds to
diminish around 00z, but gusts will be possible overnight at KABI,
and to a lesser extent at KSJT. VFR conditions will prevail with
mostly clear skies.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

Yesterday`s back-door cold front stalled across the northeast half
of the CWA and is currently lifting back north as a warm front.
This is in response to lee cyclogenesis associated with the weak
mid- level wave crossing the southern High Plains. South winds
have resumed along the I-20 corridor, coincident with a slight
reduction in dewpoints. Skies remain mostly clear, other than some
thin high clouds moving southeast from the Panhandle into north
TX.

Skies will remain mostly sunny over the next 24 hours, promoting
strong diurnal heating this afternoon. Insolation will get a boost
from slight compressional heating via southwesterly, downslope
winds. This will push afternoon temperatures well into the 80s,
with a few locations potentially reaching 90 degrees. The GFS
statistical guidance has shown a warm bias over the past several
weeks and today looks to be no different. A few degrees were
shaved off of the MAV. Southerly winds will continue tonight,
decreasing this evening as a surface trough stalls on the northern
fringes of the CWA. Winds will increase again overnight in the
favored areas near and downstream of the higher terrain as the
low-level jet intensifies. Expect overnight lows ranging from the
low 50s along the I-10 corridor to near 60 degrees along
Interstate 20.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

The forecast area will be on the eastern flank of an upper ridge
with a northwest flow aloft on Sunday. The 850mb thermal ridge
will run through the Concho Valley and northeast through the Big
Country with afternoon highs around the 90 degree mark in those
area. The remainder of West Central Texas will see mid to upper
80s for afternoon highs . Winds will be southwesterly ahead of a
weak cold front that will enter the northern Big Country after the
time of peak heating. The cold front may make it as far south as
the Interstate 20 corridor before washing out. An increase in
cloud cover and the thermal ridge backing well west of the
forecast area will keep afternoon highs on Tuesday in the 70s,
closer to seasonal norms.

An upper low west of the Baja Monday morning will open as it moves
over northern Mexico with the resultant upper trough moving over
West Texas by Tuesday morning. The latest GFS brings the trough
further south than previous runs with the best rainfall chances
along and south of Interstate 10. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms over most of the forecast area overnight Monday with
chances increasing during the day on Tuesday as the upper trough
moves east through the area. By late Tuesday the upper trough will
stretch from deep south Texas northeast over eastern Texas with
rainfall chances for the CWA ending from west to east Tuesday
night.

Afternoon highs on Tuesday will continue in the 70s, warming into
the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front passing south through
the area late Thursday will drop afternoon highs on Friday back
into the 70s. Morning lows will remain in the 50s through the end
of the week.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  88  59  92  53  77 /   0   0   0   5  10
San Angelo  89  56  94  53  80 /   0   0   0   5   5
Junction  86  52  87  54  80 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 281746
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1246 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WITHIN A BROAD WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEE
TROUGH REFOCUSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER
TO MORE WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND THE 13-15Z TIMEFRAME
SUNDAY...WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 25 KTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY...20 TO 30 MPH
WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY. SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z
MONDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS A WARM FRONT AND ALSO BRING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO OR EASTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTING
THE 20 FOOT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHICH WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE
PANHANDLES SUNDAY...HOWEVER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/17





000
FXUS64 KAMA 281746
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1246 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WITHIN A BROAD WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEE
TROUGH REFOCUSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER
TO MORE WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND THE 13-15Z TIMEFRAME
SUNDAY...WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 25 KTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY...20 TO 30 MPH
WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY. SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z
MONDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS A WARM FRONT AND ALSO BRING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO OR EASTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTING
THE 20 FOOT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHICH WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE
PANHANDLES SUNDAY...HOWEVER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 281746
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1246 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WITHIN A BROAD WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEE
TROUGH REFOCUSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WINDS WILL THEN VEER
TO MORE WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND THE 13-15Z TIMEFRAME
SUNDAY...WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 25 KTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY...20 TO 30 MPH
WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY. SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 00Z
MONDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS A WARM FRONT AND ALSO BRING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO OR EASTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTING
THE 20 FOOT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHICH WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE
PANHANDLES SUNDAY...HOWEVER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/17






000
FXUS64 KHGX 281745
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR. A TIGHT ENOUGH EASTERN TEXAS PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE A
NEAR 10 KT AFTERNOON SSW WIND...15G20 KTS ACROSS MORE INTERIOR/WESTERN
HUBS...THROUGH TWILIGHT. A SMALL CHANCE THAT BRIEF EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MVFR SHALLOW FOG FORMATION AFFECTS TERMINALS WHEN/IF SOUTH
BREEZES FALL UNDER 5 KNOTS (CXO). OVERALL LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STAY TIGHT ENOUGH IN NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLING
THE REGIONAL ONSHORE WIND FIELD...OR NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE FOG A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT. INCREASING CI TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED SOUTHERLY
WINDS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO SE TX THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER THE EAST TO THE LOWER 80S OUT WEST. RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S FOR THIS AFTN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP WEST OF A BAY CITY TO MADISONVILLE
LINE. BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES BUT INTEGRITY OF THE PREV
FCST IS ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS NE AREAS. DW PTS HAVE CREPT UP ALONG THE
COAST...BUT STILL VERY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...SO WILL SEE A LOT OF SUN TODAY WITH A FEW PATCHES OF
CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 80 INLAND
TODAY AREAWIDE.

SUN THROUGH TUE WILL SEE MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY RISE AND CLOUD
COVER INCREASE. STILL LOOKS LIKE TUE AFT THROUGH WED...BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS FEATURE CONCERNING TIMING AND FAVORED PRECIP AREAS. WILL HAVE
A CHC AREAWIDE FOR NOW TAPERED FROM THE W/SW TO THE NE. THE
SLOWER ECMWF MAINTAINS PRECIP INTO WED AFT AND IS FURTHER NORTH
INTO SE TX WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. IF THIS SOLN VERIFIES...WILL
SEE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SE TX. STAY
TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER. AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AND PRODUCE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
33

&&

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MAINLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  82  61  79  62 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 281745
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR. A TIGHT ENOUGH EASTERN TEXAS PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE A
NEAR 10 KT AFTERNOON SSW WIND...15G20 KTS ACROSS MORE INTERIOR/WESTERN
HUBS...THROUGH TWILIGHT. A SMALL CHANCE THAT BRIEF EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MVFR SHALLOW FOG FORMATION AFFECTS TERMINALS WHEN/IF SOUTH
BREEZES FALL UNDER 5 KNOTS (CXO). OVERALL LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STAY TIGHT ENOUGH IN NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLING
THE REGIONAL ONSHORE WIND FIELD...OR NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE FOG A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT. INCREASING CI TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED SOUTHERLY
WINDS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO SE TX THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER THE EAST TO THE LOWER 80S OUT WEST. RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S FOR THIS AFTN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP WEST OF A BAY CITY TO MADISONVILLE
LINE. BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES BUT INTEGRITY OF THE PREV
FCST IS ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS NE AREAS. DW PTS HAVE CREPT UP ALONG THE
COAST...BUT STILL VERY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...SO WILL SEE A LOT OF SUN TODAY WITH A FEW PATCHES OF
CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 80 INLAND
TODAY AREAWIDE.

SUN THROUGH TUE WILL SEE MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY RISE AND CLOUD
COVER INCREASE. STILL LOOKS LIKE TUE AFT THROUGH WED...BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS FEATURE CONCERNING TIMING AND FAVORED PRECIP AREAS. WILL HAVE
A CHC AREAWIDE FOR NOW TAPERED FROM THE W/SW TO THE NE. THE
SLOWER ECMWF MAINTAINS PRECIP INTO WED AFT AND IS FURTHER NORTH
INTO SE TX WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. IF THIS SOLN VERIFIES...WILL
SEE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SE TX. STAY
TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER. AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AND PRODUCE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
33

&&

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MAINLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  82  61  79  62 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 281745
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR. A TIGHT ENOUGH EASTERN TEXAS PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE A
NEAR 10 KT AFTERNOON SSW WIND...15G20 KTS ACROSS MORE INTERIOR/WESTERN
HUBS...THROUGH TWILIGHT. A SMALL CHANCE THAT BRIEF EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MVFR SHALLOW FOG FORMATION AFFECTS TERMINALS WHEN/IF SOUTH
BREEZES FALL UNDER 5 KNOTS (CXO). OVERALL LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STAY TIGHT ENOUGH IN NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLING
THE REGIONAL ONSHORE WIND FIELD...OR NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE FOG A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT. INCREASING CI TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED SOUTHERLY
WINDS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO SE TX THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER THE EAST TO THE LOWER 80S OUT WEST. RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S FOR THIS AFTN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP WEST OF A BAY CITY TO MADISONVILLE
LINE. BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES BUT INTEGRITY OF THE PREV
FCST IS ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS NE AREAS. DW PTS HAVE CREPT UP ALONG THE
COAST...BUT STILL VERY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...SO WILL SEE A LOT OF SUN TODAY WITH A FEW PATCHES OF
CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 80 INLAND
TODAY AREAWIDE.

SUN THROUGH TUE WILL SEE MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY RISE AND CLOUD
COVER INCREASE. STILL LOOKS LIKE TUE AFT THROUGH WED...BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS FEATURE CONCERNING TIMING AND FAVORED PRECIP AREAS. WILL HAVE
A CHC AREAWIDE FOR NOW TAPERED FROM THE W/SW TO THE NE. THE
SLOWER ECMWF MAINTAINS PRECIP INTO WED AFT AND IS FURTHER NORTH
INTO SE TX WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. IF THIS SOLN VERIFIES...WILL
SEE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SE TX. STAY
TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER. AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AND PRODUCE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
33

&&

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MAINLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  82  61  79  62 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 281745
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR. A TIGHT ENOUGH EASTERN TEXAS PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE A
NEAR 10 KT AFTERNOON SSW WIND...15G20 KTS ACROSS MORE INTERIOR/WESTERN
HUBS...THROUGH TWILIGHT. A SMALL CHANCE THAT BRIEF EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MVFR SHALLOW FOG FORMATION AFFECTS TERMINALS WHEN/IF SOUTH
BREEZES FALL UNDER 5 KNOTS (CXO). OVERALL LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STAY TIGHT ENOUGH IN NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLING
THE REGIONAL ONSHORE WIND FIELD...OR NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE FOG A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT. INCREASING CI TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED SOUTHERLY
WINDS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO SE TX THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER THE EAST TO THE LOWER 80S OUT WEST. RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S FOR THIS AFTN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP WEST OF A BAY CITY TO MADISONVILLE
LINE. BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES BUT INTEGRITY OF THE PREV
FCST IS ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS NE AREAS. DW PTS HAVE CREPT UP ALONG THE
COAST...BUT STILL VERY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...SO WILL SEE A LOT OF SUN TODAY WITH A FEW PATCHES OF
CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 80 INLAND
TODAY AREAWIDE.

SUN THROUGH TUE WILL SEE MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY RISE AND CLOUD
COVER INCREASE. STILL LOOKS LIKE TUE AFT THROUGH WED...BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS FEATURE CONCERNING TIMING AND FAVORED PRECIP AREAS. WILL HAVE
A CHC AREAWIDE FOR NOW TAPERED FROM THE W/SW TO THE NE. THE
SLOWER ECMWF MAINTAINS PRECIP INTO WED AFT AND IS FURTHER NORTH
INTO SE TX WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. IF THIS SOLN VERIFIES...WILL
SEE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SE TX. STAY
TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER. AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AND PRODUCE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
33

&&

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MAINLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  82  61  79  62 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 281745
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR. A TIGHT ENOUGH EASTERN TEXAS PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE A
NEAR 10 KT AFTERNOON SSW WIND...15G20 KTS ACROSS MORE INTERIOR/WESTERN
HUBS...THROUGH TWILIGHT. A SMALL CHANCE THAT BRIEF EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MVFR SHALLOW FOG FORMATION AFFECTS TERMINALS WHEN/IF SOUTH
BREEZES FALL UNDER 5 KNOTS (CXO). OVERALL LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STAY TIGHT ENOUGH IN NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLING
THE REGIONAL ONSHORE WIND FIELD...OR NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE FOG A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT. INCREASING CI TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED SOUTHERLY
WINDS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO SE TX THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER THE EAST TO THE LOWER 80S OUT WEST. RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S FOR THIS AFTN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP WEST OF A BAY CITY TO MADISONVILLE
LINE. BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES BUT INTEGRITY OF THE PREV
FCST IS ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS NE AREAS. DW PTS HAVE CREPT UP ALONG THE
COAST...BUT STILL VERY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...SO WILL SEE A LOT OF SUN TODAY WITH A FEW PATCHES OF
CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 80 INLAND
TODAY AREAWIDE.

SUN THROUGH TUE WILL SEE MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY RISE AND CLOUD
COVER INCREASE. STILL LOOKS LIKE TUE AFT THROUGH WED...BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS FEATURE CONCERNING TIMING AND FAVORED PRECIP AREAS. WILL HAVE
A CHC AREAWIDE FOR NOW TAPERED FROM THE W/SW TO THE NE. THE
SLOWER ECMWF MAINTAINS PRECIP INTO WED AFT AND IS FURTHER NORTH
INTO SE TX WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. IF THIS SOLN VERIFIES...WILL
SEE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SE TX. STAY
TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER. AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AND PRODUCE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
33

&&

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MAINLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  82  61  79  62 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 281745
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR. A TIGHT ENOUGH EASTERN TEXAS PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE A
NEAR 10 KT AFTERNOON SSW WIND...15G20 KTS ACROSS MORE INTERIOR/WESTERN
HUBS...THROUGH TWILIGHT. A SMALL CHANCE THAT BRIEF EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING MVFR SHALLOW FOG FORMATION AFFECTS TERMINALS WHEN/IF SOUTH
BREEZES FALL UNDER 5 KNOTS (CXO). OVERALL LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STAY TIGHT ENOUGH IN NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLING
THE REGIONAL ONSHORE WIND FIELD...OR NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE FOG A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT. INCREASING CI TOMORROW WITH SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED SOUTHERLY
WINDS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO RIDGE INTO SE TX THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER THE EAST TO THE LOWER 80S OUT WEST. RAP/HRRR
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S FOR THIS AFTN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP WEST OF A BAY CITY TO MADISONVILLE
LINE. BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES BUT INTEGRITY OF THE PREV
FCST IS ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS NE AREAS. DW PTS HAVE CREPT UP ALONG THE
COAST...BUT STILL VERY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...SO WILL SEE A LOT OF SUN TODAY WITH A FEW PATCHES OF
CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 80 INLAND
TODAY AREAWIDE.

SUN THROUGH TUE WILL SEE MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY RISE AND CLOUD
COVER INCREASE. STILL LOOKS LIKE TUE AFT THROUGH WED...BEGINNING
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS FEATURE CONCERNING TIMING AND FAVORED PRECIP AREAS. WILL HAVE
A CHC AREAWIDE FOR NOW TAPERED FROM THE W/SW TO THE NE. THE
SLOWER ECMWF MAINTAINS PRECIP INTO WED AFT AND IS FURTHER NORTH
INTO SE TX WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. IF THIS SOLN VERIFIES...WILL
SEE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SE TX. STAY
TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER. AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AND PRODUCE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
33

&&

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MAINLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  82  61  79  62 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  82  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  77  66  77  66 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KFWD 281733
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1233 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
DRY...STABLE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
SUPPORT AROUND 10KTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND AT ALL SITES THRU
SUNSET...WITH BACKING AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. S-SELY
WINDS 10-13KTS WILL RETURN BY 15Z SUN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDR

BRADSHAW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
MORNING AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THIS
WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL. AS A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN ORIENTATION...THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST ZONES EXPERIENCING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND RESULTANT COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH
UPON NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT
VERY STRONG REGARDING THE FORCING NEEDED FOR THIS TO OCCUR. IF
ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO GET GOING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE BEING PRESENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...SO FELT THE NEED TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...BECAUSE THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY
STRONG...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT DROP VERY MUCH BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST BE KNOCKED DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS /LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S/ FOR THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK.

THERE REMAINS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO THE
TIMING AND POSITION OF SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THAT
BEING SAID...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
HAVE A FEW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND NECESSARY MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. BY THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SUPPORT TO SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA AND THEREFORE THE RAIN CHANCES TO SHIFT
OUT OF OUR AREA AS WELL. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...UNTIL ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  57  83  62  75 /   5   0   5  20  20
WACO, TX              84  58  84  62  77 /   0   0   0   5  10
PARIS, TX             73  50  78  56  69 /   5   0  10  30  30
DENTON, TX            81  54  83  59  72 /   5   0   5  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          78  53  81  60  72 /   5   0   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            80  57  83  62  75 /   5   0   5  20  20
TERRELL, TX           77  55  82  60  74 /   5   0   5  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  82  61  76 /   0   0   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            82  58  83  62  78 /   0   0   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  54  88  58  76 /   0   0   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KFWD 281733
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1233 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
DRY...STABLE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
SUPPORT AROUND 10KTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND AT ALL SITES THRU
SUNSET...WITH BACKING AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. S-SELY
WINDS 10-13KTS WILL RETURN BY 15Z SUN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDR

BRADSHAW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
MORNING AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THIS
WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL. AS A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN ORIENTATION...THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST ZONES EXPERIENCING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND RESULTANT COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH
UPON NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT
VERY STRONG REGARDING THE FORCING NEEDED FOR THIS TO OCCUR. IF
ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO GET GOING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE BEING PRESENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...SO FELT THE NEED TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...BECAUSE THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY
STRONG...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT DROP VERY MUCH BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST BE KNOCKED DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS /LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S/ FOR THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK.

THERE REMAINS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO THE
TIMING AND POSITION OF SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THAT
BEING SAID...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
HAVE A FEW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND NECESSARY MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. BY THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SUPPORT TO SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA AND THEREFORE THE RAIN CHANCES TO SHIFT
OUT OF OUR AREA AS WELL. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...UNTIL ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  57  83  62  75 /   5   0   5  20  20
WACO, TX              84  58  84  62  77 /   0   0   0   5  10
PARIS, TX             73  50  78  56  69 /   5   0  10  30  30
DENTON, TX            81  54  83  59  72 /   5   0   5  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          78  53  81  60  72 /   5   0   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            80  57  83  62  75 /   5   0   5  20  20
TERRELL, TX           77  55  82  60  74 /   5   0   5  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  82  61  76 /   0   0   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            82  58  83  62  78 /   0   0   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  54  88  58  76 /   0   0   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /



000
FXUS64 KFWD 281733
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1233 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
DRY...STABLE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
SUPPORT AROUND 10KTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND AT ALL SITES THRU
SUNSET...WITH BACKING AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. S-SELY
WINDS 10-13KTS WILL RETURN BY 15Z SUN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDR

BRADSHAW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
MORNING AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THIS
WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL. AS A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN ORIENTATION...THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST ZONES EXPERIENCING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND RESULTANT COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH
UPON NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT
VERY STRONG REGARDING THE FORCING NEEDED FOR THIS TO OCCUR. IF
ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO GET GOING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE BEING PRESENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...SO FELT THE NEED TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...BECAUSE THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY
STRONG...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT DROP VERY MUCH BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST BE KNOCKED DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS /LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S/ FOR THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK.

THERE REMAINS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO THE
TIMING AND POSITION OF SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THAT
BEING SAID...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
HAVE A FEW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND NECESSARY MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. BY THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SUPPORT TO SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA AND THEREFORE THE RAIN CHANCES TO SHIFT
OUT OF OUR AREA AS WELL. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...UNTIL ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  57  83  62  75 /   5   0   5  20  20
WACO, TX              84  58  84  62  77 /   0   0   0   5  10
PARIS, TX             73  50  78  56  69 /   5   0  10  30  30
DENTON, TX            81  54  83  59  72 /   5   0   5  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          78  53  81  60  72 /   5   0   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            80  57  83  62  75 /   5   0   5  20  20
TERRELL, TX           77  55  82  60  74 /   5   0   5  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  82  61  76 /   0   0   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            82  58  83  62  78 /   0   0   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  54  88  58  76 /   0   0   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




000
FXUS64 KFWD 281733
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1233 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
DRY...STABLE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
SUPPORT AROUND 10KTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND AT ALL SITES THRU
SUNSET...WITH BACKING AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT. S-SELY
WINDS 10-13KTS WILL RETURN BY 15Z SUN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDR

BRADSHAW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
MORNING AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD
AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THIS
WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL. AS A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN ORIENTATION...THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST ZONES EXPERIENCING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND RESULTANT COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH
UPON NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT
VERY STRONG REGARDING THE FORCING NEEDED FOR THIS TO OCCUR. IF
ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO GET GOING...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE BEING PRESENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...SO FELT THE NEED TO CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...BECAUSE THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY
STRONG...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT DROP VERY MUCH BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST BE KNOCKED DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS /LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S/ FOR THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK.

THERE REMAINS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO THE
TIMING AND POSITION OF SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THAT
BEING SAID...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
HAVE A FEW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND NECESSARY MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. BY THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SUPPORT TO SHIFT
EAST OF OUR AREA AND THEREFORE THE RAIN CHANCES TO SHIFT
OUT OF OUR AREA AS WELL. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...UNTIL ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  81  57  83  62  75 /   5   0   5  20  20
WACO, TX              84  58  84  62  77 /   0   0   0   5  10
PARIS, TX             73  50  78  56  69 /   5   0  10  30  30
DENTON, TX            81  54  83  59  72 /   5   0   5  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          78  53  81  60  72 /   5   0   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            80  57  83  62  75 /   5   0   5  20  20
TERRELL, TX           77  55  82  60  74 /   5   0   5  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         80  58  82  61  76 /   0   0   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            82  58  83  62  78 /   0   0   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  54  88  58  76 /   0   0   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /



000
FXUS64 KBRO 281732
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1232 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRY ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR ALL THREE REGIONAL AIRPORTS.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS GUSTING UP 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON LOWER
AFTER SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED REMAIN BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS. GB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMS IN PLACE
WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.31 INCHES. MODEL 1000-500 MB RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS FROM AROUND 16Z THROUGH
AROUND 01Z TODAY. THE PGF WILL DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 3 PERIODS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS
PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER
BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE BAJA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... EXCEPT FOR THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH THE PGF
INCREASES THE BAY AND GULF WATERS TEMPS IN THE BAY AND GULF REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL IN THE 66-68 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR
PADRE ISLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING PGF. SO WILL NOT POST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF WATERS. THE PGF WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BUT EXPECT THE COOLER BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS TO TEND
TO HOLD BACK THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KBRO 281732
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1232 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRY ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR ALL THREE REGIONAL AIRPORTS.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS GUSTING UP 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON LOWER
AFTER SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED REMAIN BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS. GB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMS IN PLACE
WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.31 INCHES. MODEL 1000-500 MB RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS FROM AROUND 16Z THROUGH
AROUND 01Z TODAY. THE PGF WILL DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 3 PERIODS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS
PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER
BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE BAJA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... EXCEPT FOR THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH THE PGF
INCREASES THE BAY AND GULF WATERS TEMPS IN THE BAY AND GULF REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL IN THE 66-68 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR
PADRE ISLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING PGF. SO WILL NOT POST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF WATERS. THE PGF WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BUT EXPECT THE COOLER BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS TO TEND
TO HOLD BACK THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KBRO 281732
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1232 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRY ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR ALL THREE REGIONAL AIRPORTS.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS GUSTING UP 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON LOWER
AFTER SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED REMAIN BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS. GB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMS IN PLACE
WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.31 INCHES. MODEL 1000-500 MB RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS FROM AROUND 16Z THROUGH
AROUND 01Z TODAY. THE PGF WILL DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 3 PERIODS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS
PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER
BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE BAJA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... EXCEPT FOR THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH THE PGF
INCREASES THE BAY AND GULF WATERS TEMPS IN THE BAY AND GULF REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL IN THE 66-68 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR
PADRE ISLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING PGF. SO WILL NOT POST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF WATERS. THE PGF WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BUT EXPECT THE COOLER BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS TO TEND
TO HOLD BACK THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM



000
FXUS64 KBRO 281732
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1232 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRY ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR ALL THREE REGIONAL AIRPORTS.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS GUSTING UP 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON LOWER
AFTER SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED REMAIN BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS. GB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMS IN PLACE
WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.31 INCHES. MODEL 1000-500 MB RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS FROM AROUND 16Z THROUGH
AROUND 01Z TODAY. THE PGF WILL DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING THE SURFACE WINDS TO DECREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTROL THE CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE 1000-500 MB MEAN RH VALUES REMAIN PRETTY REDUCED THROUGH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. SO EXPECT SUNSHINE/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING 3 PERIODS. AS THE SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS MORE
EASTWARD THE S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE RGV WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH THE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WILL WARM UP THE TEMPS
PERETTY QUICKLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A COOLER
BIAS IN THE SHORT TERM MAXES VERSUS THE GFS MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING THINGS UP. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE RETURNING WAA AM LEANING TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV NUMBERS THROUGH TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE BAJA REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S... EXCEPT FOR THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. WILL
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE LATEST GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
OF THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE HELD
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION
LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTLINE WILL START TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH THE PGF
INCREASES THE BAY AND GULF WATERS TEMPS IN THE BAY AND GULF REMAIN
FAIRLY COOL IN THE 66-68 DEGREE RANGE. THE COOLER WATER TEMPS NEAR
PADRE ISLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD DOWN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRENGTHENING PGF. SO WILL NOT POST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL MENTION ONLY SCEC CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF WATERS. THE PGF WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS BUT EXPECT THE COOLER BAY AND GULF WATER TEMPS TO TEND
TO HOLD BACK THE LOW LEVEL MIXING.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM



000
FXUS64 KEWX 281727 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
ONLY CONCERN FOR THIS AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
LONGER TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE 30-HOUR TAF SITES IS INDICATING WINDS
AFTER 29/16Z AT 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS SECTIONS ARE
HINTING AT A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING
AND DEW POINTS SHOULD BE ON THE RISE...BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE
BKN CIGS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT AT KSSF/KSAT/KAUS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRATO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1204 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE... /LOWERED RH...RAISED WIND/
MIDDAY UPDATE WAS NEEDED TO TRACK DEW POINTS THAT WERE FALLING
AWAY FROM INHERITED FORECAST TRENDS. SLIGHTLY MORE WIND AND
MIXING WAS ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO LOWER DAYTIME RH
VALUES BY 5 PERCENT OR MORE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THE
INCREASING WIND/LOWERING RH TRENDS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY...BUT WILL FACTOR IN SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURNING
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SET OF FORECASTS WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT OF LEE SIDE TROFFING. KEPT IN SMALL
MENTION OF FEW015 TOMORROW MORNING AT AUS/SAT/SSF BASED ON MODEL
RH FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STRATO CU FORMING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  84  62  79  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  52  82  61  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     52  82  61  80  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            55  82  60  76  60 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  88  61  83  65 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  81  61  77  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  85  60  82  62 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  82  60  79  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  82  63  80  62 /   0   0  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       54  82  61  80  63 /   0   0  -   20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           53  83  61  81  62 /   0   0  -   20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 281727 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
ONLY CONCERN FOR THIS AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
LONGER TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE 30-HOUR TAF SITES IS INDICATING WINDS
AFTER 29/16Z AT 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS SECTIONS ARE
HINTING AT A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING
AND DEW POINTS SHOULD BE ON THE RISE...BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE
BKN CIGS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT AT KSSF/KSAT/KAUS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRATO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1204 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE... /LOWERED RH...RAISED WIND/
MIDDAY UPDATE WAS NEEDED TO TRACK DEW POINTS THAT WERE FALLING
AWAY FROM INHERITED FORECAST TRENDS. SLIGHTLY MORE WIND AND
MIXING WAS ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO LOWER DAYTIME RH
VALUES BY 5 PERCENT OR MORE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THE
INCREASING WIND/LOWERING RH TRENDS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY...BUT WILL FACTOR IN SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURNING
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SET OF FORECASTS WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT OF LEE SIDE TROFFING. KEPT IN SMALL
MENTION OF FEW015 TOMORROW MORNING AT AUS/SAT/SSF BASED ON MODEL
RH FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STRATO CU FORMING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  84  62  79  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  52  82  61  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     52  82  61  80  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            55  82  60  76  60 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  88  61  83  65 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  81  61  77  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  85  60  82  62 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  82  60  79  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  82  63  80  62 /   0   0  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       54  82  61  80  63 /   0   0  -   20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           53  83  61  81  62 /   0   0  -   20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12




000
FXUS64 KEWX 281727 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
ONLY CONCERN FOR THIS AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
LONGER TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE 30-HOUR TAF SITES IS INDICATING WINDS
AFTER 29/16Z AT 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS SECTIONS ARE
HINTING AT A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING
AND DEW POINTS SHOULD BE ON THE RISE...BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE
BKN CIGS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT AT KSSF/KSAT/KAUS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRATO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1204 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE... /LOWERED RH...RAISED WIND/
MIDDAY UPDATE WAS NEEDED TO TRACK DEW POINTS THAT WERE FALLING
AWAY FROM INHERITED FORECAST TRENDS. SLIGHTLY MORE WIND AND
MIXING WAS ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO LOWER DAYTIME RH
VALUES BY 5 PERCENT OR MORE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THE
INCREASING WIND/LOWERING RH TRENDS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY...BUT WILL FACTOR IN SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURNING
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SET OF FORECASTS WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT OF LEE SIDE TROFFING. KEPT IN SMALL
MENTION OF FEW015 TOMORROW MORNING AT AUS/SAT/SSF BASED ON MODEL
RH FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STRATO CU FORMING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  84  62  79  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  52  82  61  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     52  82  61  80  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            55  82  60  76  60 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  88  61  83  65 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  81  61  77  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  85  60  82  62 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  82  60  79  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  82  63  80  62 /   0   0  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       54  82  61  80  63 /   0   0  -   20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           53  83  61  81  62 /   0   0  -   20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12



000
FXUS64 KEWX 281727 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
ONLY CONCERN FOR THIS AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
LONGER TERM GUIDANCE FOR THE 30-HOUR TAF SITES IS INDICATING WINDS
AFTER 29/16Z AT 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS SECTIONS ARE
HINTING AT A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING
AND DEW POINTS SHOULD BE ON THE RISE...BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE
BKN CIGS. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT AT KSSF/KSAT/KAUS FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF SOME STRATO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1204 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

UPDATE... /LOWERED RH...RAISED WIND/
MIDDAY UPDATE WAS NEEDED TO TRACK DEW POINTS THAT WERE FALLING
AWAY FROM INHERITED FORECAST TRENDS. SLIGHTLY MORE WIND AND
MIXING WAS ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO LOWER DAYTIME RH
VALUES BY 5 PERCENT OR MORE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THE
INCREASING WIND/LOWERING RH TRENDS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY...BUT WILL FACTOR IN SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURNING
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE SET OF FORECASTS WITH VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GUST OVER 20 KT AT
TIMES. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ON THE RISE BY LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT OF LEE SIDE TROFFING. KEPT IN SMALL
MENTION OF FEW015 TOMORROW MORNING AT AUS/SAT/SSF BASED ON MODEL
RH FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE STRATO CU FORMING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION
INTO SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING TODAY. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S ALONG
INTERSTATE 35 WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO THE 50S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS GULF
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 9 OR
10 AM SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STALLING THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN
PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO ONGOING...EXPECT
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MONDAY MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TAKES PLACE. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION BEING A BIT FASTER THAN THE EURO. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIME
DIFFERENCES...EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INSTEAD OF DRYING THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY
GFS. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY ACCORDING TO GFS. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING UNTIL FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS.
FORECAST AREA SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING MODERATE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH
PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES GO HIGHER LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  84  62  79  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  52  82  61  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     52  82  61  80  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            55  82  60  76  60 /   0   0  -   20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  88  61  83  65 /   0   0   0  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  81  61  77  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             51  85  60  82  62 /   0   0   0  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  82  60  79  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  82  63  80  62 /   0   0  20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       54  82  61  80  63 /   0   0  -   20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           53  83  61  81  62 /   0   0  -   20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12



000
FXUS64 KLUB 281721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OCCURRING AT KLBB AND KPVW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OCCURRING MORE SO AT KCDS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES...AND VEER FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. NORTH WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEYOND 12 KTS SHORTLY AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF VFR/MVFR FOG NEARING KCDS
FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS KEEP IT EAST OF KCDS DUE TO WINDS VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WILL VISIT WEST TEXAS TODAY AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY TODAY AND IT COULD PROVIDE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NORTH OF THE LOW...AND THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR FOG NEAR
CHILDRESS BY EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
WINDS HERE WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP
THE BETTER RISK OF FOG TO THE EAST. THE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL BUT
PLEASANT SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S /THE RECORD HIGH FOR LUBBOCK TODAY IS 90 DEGREES/...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-50S
SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER.
THE LATEST PROGS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER...CLEARING ALL BUT THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT THESE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...NOT
AS STRONG AS LAST WEDNESDAY/S FRONT. THIS QUICKER TREND SUPPORTS
ANOTHER DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM MID
70S NW TO UPPER 80S SE. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY YET MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THAT
FRONT DISSOLVES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ON THOSE E-SE BREEZES
MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE BUT THE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SOME LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY
ESTABLISHED...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT AT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...FOCUSED ON THE ROLLING PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT.

A PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ARE WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
MED-RANGE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON A WEAK FRONT FOR THURSDAY...BUT IT
SHOULDN/T INFLUENCE THE WEATHER MUCH EITHER WAY. A STRONGER FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT WITH ONLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY FROPA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
COULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  74  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  82  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  83  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  85  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  89  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OCCURRING AT KLBB AND KPVW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OCCURRING MORE SO AT KCDS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES...AND VEER FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. NORTH WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEYOND 12 KTS SHORTLY AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF VFR/MVFR FOG NEARING KCDS
FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS KEEP IT EAST OF KCDS DUE TO WINDS VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WILL VISIT WEST TEXAS TODAY AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY TODAY AND IT COULD PROVIDE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NORTH OF THE LOW...AND THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR FOG NEAR
CHILDRESS BY EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
WINDS HERE WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP
THE BETTER RISK OF FOG TO THE EAST. THE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL BUT
PLEASANT SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S /THE RECORD HIGH FOR LUBBOCK TODAY IS 90 DEGREES/...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-50S
SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER.
THE LATEST PROGS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER...CLEARING ALL BUT THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT THESE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...NOT
AS STRONG AS LAST WEDNESDAY/S FRONT. THIS QUICKER TREND SUPPORTS
ANOTHER DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM MID
70S NW TO UPPER 80S SE. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY YET MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THAT
FRONT DISSOLVES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ON THOSE E-SE BREEZES
MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE BUT THE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SOME LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY
ESTABLISHED...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT AT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...FOCUSED ON THE ROLLING PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT.

A PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ARE WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
MED-RANGE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON A WEAK FRONT FOR THURSDAY...BUT IT
SHOULDN/T INFLUENCE THE WEATHER MUCH EITHER WAY. A STRONGER FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT WITH ONLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY FROPA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
COULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  74  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  82  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  83  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  85  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  89  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OCCURRING AT KLBB AND KPVW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OCCURRING MORE SO AT KCDS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES...AND VEER FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. NORTH WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEYOND 12 KTS SHORTLY AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF VFR/MVFR FOG NEARING KCDS
FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS KEEP IT EAST OF KCDS DUE TO WINDS VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WILL VISIT WEST TEXAS TODAY AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY TODAY AND IT COULD PROVIDE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NORTH OF THE LOW...AND THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR FOG NEAR
CHILDRESS BY EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
WINDS HERE WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP
THE BETTER RISK OF FOG TO THE EAST. THE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL BUT
PLEASANT SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S /THE RECORD HIGH FOR LUBBOCK TODAY IS 90 DEGREES/...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-50S
SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER.
THE LATEST PROGS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER...CLEARING ALL BUT THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT THESE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...NOT
AS STRONG AS LAST WEDNESDAY/S FRONT. THIS QUICKER TREND SUPPORTS
ANOTHER DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM MID
70S NW TO UPPER 80S SE. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY YET MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THAT
FRONT DISSOLVES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ON THOSE E-SE BREEZES
MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE BUT THE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SOME LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY
ESTABLISHED...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT AT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...FOCUSED ON THE ROLLING PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT.

A PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ARE WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
MED-RANGE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON A WEAK FRONT FOR THURSDAY...BUT IT
SHOULDN/T INFLUENCE THE WEATHER MUCH EITHER WAY. A STRONGER FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT WITH ONLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY FROPA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
COULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  74  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  82  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  83  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  85  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  89  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OCCURRING AT KLBB AND KPVW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OCCURRING MORE SO AT KCDS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES...AND VEER FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. NORTH WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEYOND 12 KTS SHORTLY AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF VFR/MVFR FOG NEARING KCDS
FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS KEEP IT EAST OF KCDS DUE TO WINDS VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WILL VISIT WEST TEXAS TODAY AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY TODAY AND IT COULD PROVIDE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NORTH OF THE LOW...AND THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR FOG NEAR
CHILDRESS BY EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
WINDS HERE WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP
THE BETTER RISK OF FOG TO THE EAST. THE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL BUT
PLEASANT SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S /THE RECORD HIGH FOR LUBBOCK TODAY IS 90 DEGREES/...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-50S
SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER.
THE LATEST PROGS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER...CLEARING ALL BUT THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT THESE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...NOT
AS STRONG AS LAST WEDNESDAY/S FRONT. THIS QUICKER TREND SUPPORTS
ANOTHER DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM MID
70S NW TO UPPER 80S SE. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY YET MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THAT
FRONT DISSOLVES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ON THOSE E-SE BREEZES
MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE BUT THE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SOME LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY
ESTABLISHED...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT AT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...FOCUSED ON THE ROLLING PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT.

A PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ARE WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
MED-RANGE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON A WEAK FRONT FOR THURSDAY...BUT IT
SHOULDN/T INFLUENCE THE WEATHER MUCH EITHER WAY. A STRONGER FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT WITH ONLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY FROPA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
COULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  74  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  82  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  83  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  85  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  89  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OCCURRING AT KLBB AND KPVW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OCCURRING MORE SO AT KCDS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES...AND VEER FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. NORTH WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEYOND 12 KTS SHORTLY AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF VFR/MVFR FOG NEARING KCDS
FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS KEEP IT EAST OF KCDS DUE TO WINDS VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WILL VISIT WEST TEXAS TODAY AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY TODAY AND IT COULD PROVIDE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NORTH OF THE LOW...AND THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR FOG NEAR
CHILDRESS BY EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
WINDS HERE WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP
THE BETTER RISK OF FOG TO THE EAST. THE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL BUT
PLEASANT SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S /THE RECORD HIGH FOR LUBBOCK TODAY IS 90 DEGREES/...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-50S
SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER.
THE LATEST PROGS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER...CLEARING ALL BUT THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT THESE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...NOT
AS STRONG AS LAST WEDNESDAY/S FRONT. THIS QUICKER TREND SUPPORTS
ANOTHER DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM MID
70S NW TO UPPER 80S SE. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY YET MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THAT
FRONT DISSOLVES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ON THOSE E-SE BREEZES
MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE BUT THE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SOME LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY
ESTABLISHED...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT AT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...FOCUSED ON THE ROLLING PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT.

A PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ARE WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
MED-RANGE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON A WEAK FRONT FOR THURSDAY...BUT IT
SHOULDN/T INFLUENCE THE WEATHER MUCH EITHER WAY. A STRONGER FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT WITH ONLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY FROPA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
COULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  74  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  82  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  83  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  85  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  89  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OCCURRING AT KLBB AND KPVW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OCCURRING MORE SO AT KCDS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES...AND VEER FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. NORTH WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEYOND 12 KTS SHORTLY AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF VFR/MVFR FOG NEARING KCDS
FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS KEEP IT EAST OF KCDS DUE TO WINDS VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WILL VISIT WEST TEXAS TODAY AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY TODAY AND IT COULD PROVIDE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NORTH OF THE LOW...AND THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR FOG NEAR
CHILDRESS BY EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
WINDS HERE WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP
THE BETTER RISK OF FOG TO THE EAST. THE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL BUT
PLEASANT SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S /THE RECORD HIGH FOR LUBBOCK TODAY IS 90 DEGREES/...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-50S
SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER.
THE LATEST PROGS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER...CLEARING ALL BUT THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT THESE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...NOT
AS STRONG AS LAST WEDNESDAY/S FRONT. THIS QUICKER TREND SUPPORTS
ANOTHER DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM MID
70S NW TO UPPER 80S SE. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY YET MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THAT
FRONT DISSOLVES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ON THOSE E-SE BREEZES
MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE BUT THE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SOME LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY
ESTABLISHED...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT AT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...FOCUSED ON THE ROLLING PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT.

A PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ARE WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
MED-RANGE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON A WEAK FRONT FOR THURSDAY...BUT IT
SHOULDN/T INFLUENCE THE WEATHER MUCH EITHER WAY. A STRONGER FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT WITH ONLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY FROPA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
COULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  74  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  82  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  83  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  85  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  89  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OCCURRING AT KLBB AND KPVW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OCCURRING MORE SO AT KCDS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES...AND VEER FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. NORTH WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEYOND 12 KTS SHORTLY AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF VFR/MVFR FOG NEARING KCDS
FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS KEEP IT EAST OF KCDS DUE TO WINDS VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WILL VISIT WEST TEXAS TODAY AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY TODAY AND IT COULD PROVIDE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NORTH OF THE LOW...AND THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR FOG NEAR
CHILDRESS BY EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
WINDS HERE WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP
THE BETTER RISK OF FOG TO THE EAST. THE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL BUT
PLEASANT SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S /THE RECORD HIGH FOR LUBBOCK TODAY IS 90 DEGREES/...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-50S
SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER.
THE LATEST PROGS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER...CLEARING ALL BUT THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT THESE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...NOT
AS STRONG AS LAST WEDNESDAY/S FRONT. THIS QUICKER TREND SUPPORTS
ANOTHER DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM MID
70S NW TO UPPER 80S SE. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY YET MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THAT
FRONT DISSOLVES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ON THOSE E-SE BREEZES
MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE BUT THE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SOME LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY
ESTABLISHED...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT AT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...FOCUSED ON THE ROLLING PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT.

A PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ARE WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
MED-RANGE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON A WEAK FRONT FOR THURSDAY...BUT IT
SHOULDN/T INFLUENCE THE WEATHER MUCH EITHER WAY. A STRONGER FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT WITH ONLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY FROPA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
COULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  74  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  82  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  83  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  85  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  89  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OCCURRING AT KLBB AND KPVW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OCCURRING MORE SO AT KCDS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES...AND VEER FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. NORTH WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEYOND 12 KTS SHORTLY AFTER THIS TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF VFR/MVFR FOG NEARING KCDS
FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE COMPUTER
MODELS KEEP IT EAST OF KCDS DUE TO WINDS VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WILL VISIT WEST TEXAS TODAY AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW EARLY TODAY AND IT COULD PROVIDE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
MOST PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NORTH OF THE LOW...AND THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE COULD BRING THE THREAT FOR FOG NEAR
CHILDRESS BY EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
WINDS HERE WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP
THE BETTER RISK OF FOG TO THE EAST. THE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL BUT
PLEASANT SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S /THE RECORD HIGH FOR LUBBOCK TODAY IS 90 DEGREES/...WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-50S
SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY DUE TO A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL IMPACT TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER.
THE LATEST PROGS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH A LITTLE
QUICKER...CLEARING ALL BUT THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY N-NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT THESE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...NOT
AS STRONG AS LAST WEDNESDAY/S FRONT. THIS QUICKER TREND SUPPORTS
ANOTHER DOWNWARD NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPS...WHICH SHOULD RANGE FROM MID
70S NW TO UPPER 80S SE. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY YET MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THAT
FRONT DISSOLVES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ON THOSE E-SE BREEZES
MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE BUT THE MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT SOME LOW
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY
ESTABLISHED...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT AT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...FOCUSED ON THE ROLLING PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT.

A PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE ARE WEDNESDAY LEADING
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
MED-RANGE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON A WEAK FRONT FOR THURSDAY...BUT IT
SHOULDN/T INFLUENCE THE WEATHER MUCH EITHER WAY. A STRONGER FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT WITH ONLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY FROPA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN
COULD DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS SWERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  74  40  72 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         46  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  79  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  82  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  82  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  83  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  85  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  89  52  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KCRP 281710 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTN WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KT EXPECTED...THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS RESIDING ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND FROM CRP-ALI. DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE THIS
EVENING...WITH A 5-10 KT S-LY FLOW OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE WINDS DROP
FURTHER AT ALI-VCT TO SEE LIGHT FOG BUT MAINTAIN VFR STATUS...AND
EVEN POSSIBLY BRIEFLY AT LRD RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. MORNING
CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BREAKING UP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. A
MUCH WINDIER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...PEAKING MORE JUST
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...INCREASED WINDS A BIT MORE INLAND THIS LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH
VWP SHOWING 30KT WIND OFF THE SURFACE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO S TX TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 20-25KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DVLPG. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TX...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  A DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY AND WINDY ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS TODAY AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT WILL ONLY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S TX LATE TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL STICK NON-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NOW. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH NEAR 90 OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 50
POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION QUICKER. WILL KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE AROUND 80 IN THE WEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS (80S WITH LOWER 90S OUT WEST) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. BELIEVE MEXMOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND VALUES. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  62  84  67  83  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  57  83  64  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            86  60  90  66  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  57  87  65  85  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  66  79  68  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  56  88  64  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        83  60  86  66  84  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  65  79  68  78  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 281710 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTN WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KT EXPECTED...THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS RESIDING ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND FROM CRP-ALI. DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE THIS
EVENING...WITH A 5-10 KT S-LY FLOW OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE WINDS DROP
FURTHER AT ALI-VCT TO SEE LIGHT FOG BUT MAINTAIN VFR STATUS...AND
EVEN POSSIBLY BRIEFLY AT LRD RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. MORNING
CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BREAKING UP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. A
MUCH WINDIER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...PEAKING MORE JUST
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...INCREASED WINDS A BIT MORE INLAND THIS LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH
VWP SHOWING 30KT WIND OFF THE SURFACE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO S TX TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 20-25KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DVLPG. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TX...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  A DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY AND WINDY ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS TODAY AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT WILL ONLY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S TX LATE TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL STICK NON-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NOW. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH NEAR 90 OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 50
POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION QUICKER. WILL KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE AROUND 80 IN THE WEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS (80S WITH LOWER 90S OUT WEST) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. BELIEVE MEXMOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND VALUES. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  62  84  67  83  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  57  83  64  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            86  60  90  66  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  57  87  65  85  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  66  79  68  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  56  88  64  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        83  60  86  66  84  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  65  79  68  78  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 281710 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTN WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KT EXPECTED...THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS RESIDING ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND FROM CRP-ALI. DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE THIS
EVENING...WITH A 5-10 KT S-LY FLOW OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE WINDS DROP
FURTHER AT ALI-VCT TO SEE LIGHT FOG BUT MAINTAIN VFR STATUS...AND
EVEN POSSIBLY BRIEFLY AT LRD RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. MORNING
CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BREAKING UP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. A
MUCH WINDIER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...PEAKING MORE JUST
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...INCREASED WINDS A BIT MORE INLAND THIS LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WITH
VWP SHOWING 30KT WIND OFF THE SURFACE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO S TX TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING MORE CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCT. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO
AROUND 20-25KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DVLPG. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS TX...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  A DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE WIND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY AND WINDY ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS TODAY AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS THE NRN BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BUT WILL ONLY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS S TX LATE TONIGHT
THRU SUNDAY.


LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE QUIET AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
RESIDE OVER THE AREA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL STICK NON-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NOW. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY WITH NEAR 90 OUT WEST WITH LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 50
POPS. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION QUICKER. WILL KEEP
SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND DECENT RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE AROUND 80 IN THE WEST TO LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHEAST. ZONAL FLOW
WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS (80S WITH LOWER 90S OUT WEST) WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. BELIEVE MEXMOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
SIDED CLOSER TO SUPERBLEND VALUES. MODELS ADVERTISE THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  62  84  67  83  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          81  57  83  64  81  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            86  60  90  66  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             85  57  87  65  85  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  66  79  68  79  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           85  56  88  64  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        83  60  86  66  84  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  65  79  68  78  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KMAF 281707
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE