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000
FXUS64 KAMA 171131 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
BRIEF FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF
FORECAST AREA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO DROP INTO MVFR
RANGE.  SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...
WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MOST OF THE DAY.  APART FROM
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS NEAR KAMA...HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE THE ONLY SKY COVER OF NOTE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS.  SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  VFR
FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CURRENTLY...THE MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES APPEARS
TO BE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

A MASSIVE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN ADVANCE OF ODILE...NOW CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. TRENDS IN VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF ODILE...NOW HEADING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO.

A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS DEPICTED BY NWP TO GENERALLY PERSIST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THUS ISOLATED /20 PERCENT/ GRIDDED
POPS WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL
FORCING/ASCENT TIED TO THE APPROACH OF THE EVOLVING REMNANTS OF
ODILE BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS IN EARNEST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS HAVE REMAINED IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUBSEQUENT RUNS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOWING
THE CORE REMNANTS OF ODILE TRANSLATING OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY AND 12Z SATURDAY. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES AS AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS
OVER THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS TOWARD 60-70
PERCENT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. 40 TO 60 PERCENT GRIDDED POPS WERE RETAINED
SATURDAY...WHEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGERING SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING FORCED AND ULTIMATELY DISPLACED SOUTH AND EASTWARD BY
A PASSING FRONT. WITH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
INCREASING...WIDESPREAD MEAN STORM TOTAL RAINFALL MAY RANGE FROM 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS DEPICTED BY WPC QPF. A FLOOD AND/OR
FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY DEVELOP AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ADDITIONALLY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE APPROACH
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS
FEATURE MAY PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

LINDLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                79  58  82  59  78 /  20  20  20  30  60
BEAVER OK                  92  63  91  64  84 /   5   5  10  10  40
BOISE CITY OK              88  58  84  60  79 /  10  10  10  20  60
BORGER TX                  86  65  86  65  77 /  10  10  20  20  60
BOYS RANCH TX              81  62  82  63  77 /  20  10  20  30  60
CANYON TX                  79  62  80  62  78 /  20  20  30  30  60
CLARENDON TX               82  64  83  63  80 /  20  20  20  30  60
DALHART TX                 87  60  84  62  80 /  10  10  20  30  60
GUYMON OK                  91  61  89  63  77 /  10   5  10  10  50
HEREFORD TX                78  61  79  62  79 /  20  20  30  40  60
LIPSCOMB TX                89  63  88  64  81 /  10   5  10  10  50
PAMPA TX                   83  61  83  61  77 /  10  10  20  20  50
SHAMROCK TX                87  64  87  63  79 /  10  10  20  20  50
WELLINGTON TX              85  67  85  66  80 /  20  20  20  20  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10





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000
FXUS64 KEWX 171129
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
629 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THINGS ARE FAIRLY QUIET NOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH IFR/MVFR AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. HAVE INPUT SOME PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AT SAT/SSF BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE THE
SH/TS ACTIVITY INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND PEAK DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AT SSF/SAT/AUS.  PLACED SITES IN
VICINITY TS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO THUNDER IN THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF 20-24Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
LATE TONIGHT MAYBE EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT BUT BECAUSE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE...KEPT TAFS IN VICINITY MENTION LATER TONIGHT. LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BE ABLE TO PINDOWN CONVECTION TIMES BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WITH POP ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR DRT...DID NOT
MENTION SH/TS AT DRT TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATELLITE PW IMAGERY AND EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW A TROPICALLY
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PWS OF 1.8 TO 2.3
INCHES. RICH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AS WEAKENED
TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVES FROM FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LOWER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
CURRENTLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE SAN ANTONIO AREA
WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN GENERALLY DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST PWS ARE LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING. HOWEVER...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. 00Z NAM IS LIKELY AN OUTLIER
WITH ITS HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG I-35.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ARE NOW HAVING
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. WILL GO BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  74  88  71  90 /  70  70  60  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  71  88  70  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  89  72  89 /  60  60  50  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  72  87  70  88 /  60  60  60  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  74  91  76  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  74  86  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  73  91  73  91 /  50  40  40  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  88  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  87  73  90 /  80  70  60  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  76  90  75  90 /  60  50  50  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  75  91  75  91 /  60  50  40  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04






000
FXUS64 KEWX 171129
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
629 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THINGS ARE FAIRLY QUIET NOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH IFR/MVFR AT
ALL THE TAF SITES. HAVE INPUT SOME PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AT SAT/SSF BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE THE
SH/TS ACTIVITY INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND PEAK DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AT SSF/SAT/AUS.  PLACED SITES IN
VICINITY TS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO THUNDER IN THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS OF 20-24Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
LATE TONIGHT MAYBE EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT BUT BECAUSE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE...KEPT TAFS IN VICINITY MENTION LATER TONIGHT. LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BE ABLE TO PINDOWN CONVECTION TIMES BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. WITH POP ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR DRT...DID NOT
MENTION SH/TS AT DRT TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATELLITE PW IMAGERY AND EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW A TROPICALLY
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PWS OF 1.8 TO 2.3
INCHES. RICH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AS WEAKENED
TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVES FROM FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LOWER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
CURRENTLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE SAN ANTONIO AREA
WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN GENERALLY DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST PWS ARE LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING. HOWEVER...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. 00Z NAM IS LIKELY AN OUTLIER
WITH ITS HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG I-35.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ARE NOW HAVING
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. WILL GO BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  74  88  71  90 /  70  70  60  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  71  88  70  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  89  72  89 /  60  60  50  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  72  87  70  88 /  60  60  60  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  74  91  76  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  74  86  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  73  91  73  91 /  50  40  40  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  88  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  87  73  90 /  80  70  60  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  76  90  75  90 /  60  50  50  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  75  91  75  91 /  60  50  40  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLUB 171109
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
609 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014


.AVIATION...
COPIOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD FROM T.C. ODILE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...KLBB IS
EXPECTED TO SEE PERIODS OF -RA THOUGH FIELD SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR
ABOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY SW OF KLBB AND WE COULD SEE SOME OF THESE MOVE INTO THE
TERMINAL AREA. KCDS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
OUR WEATHER WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ODILE WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.  BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONE THROUGH TEXAS THENCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHT ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD WANE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH FOCUSED MORE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.  IN FACT...THE NERN ZONES MAY STAY
DRY.  THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES ARE PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GET AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING WITH THESE CONDITIONS.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP
THE MENTION GOING NORTHEAST THROUGH WILL KEEP THE QPF MORE OR LESS
SILENT WHILE INCREASING POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE ACROSS FAR SWRN TEXAS/NERN OLD MEXICO IS AIDING IN
TRANSLATING TROPICAL STORM ODILE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE THIS NEWRD
TREK ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS SUCH...ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM ODILE
AND ALSO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED PWATS
RANGING BETWEEN 1.60-1.90 INCHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ODILE
EVOLVING TO LINGERING REMNANTS/A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIFT
NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION COMMENCING
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
ON THE RISE AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AN ALREADY PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL BEING A POSSIBILITY.
AS WAS SEEN TODAY...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE INITIALLY FAVORED TOMORROW...WITH
COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY...DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE UA DISTURBANCE.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION...AS IT IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE UA
DISTURBANCE...WHICH LEADS TO UL SUPPORT LACKING A BIT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE
THEREFORE TRENDED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS
WHICH REFLECT THE FOLLOWING: /1/ INCREASED POPS ON THE CAPROCK TO
LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY THUS TYING IN ON THE START OF THE UA
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.../2/ THE DISTURBANCE WILL
EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER A SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE CWA...AND HENCE PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH AN UA RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM ALOFT...AS EXHIBITED BY
TOP-DOWN DRYING PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS FOCUS WILL TURN TO YET ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP BY MID-WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH IN THIS
REGARD AS OPPOSED TO THE DRYER ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INSERTING MENTIONABLE POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT ATTM...AND AWAIT MODEL
RUN CONSISTENCY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S WHICH IS SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  60  78  60  77 /  30  30  30  50  60
TULIA         80  62  81  62  80 /  20  20  30  40  60
PLAINVIEW     78  63  80  62  80 /  20  30  30  40  60
LEVELLAND     75  63  77  62  78 /  50  40  40  50  60
LUBBOCK       78  64  79  64  79 /  40  30  40  50  60
DENVER CITY   78  64  76  63  80 /  70  50  50  50  60
BROWNFIELD    77  64  78  63  79 /  60  50  50  50  60
CHILDRESS     87  66  86  66  81 /  20  20  20  20  50
SPUR          80  66  82  65  81 /  30  30  30  40  50
ASPERMONT     82  68  84  68  84 /  30  30  30  40  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





000
FXUS64 KLUB 171109
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
609 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014


.AVIATION...
COPIOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD FROM T.C. ODILE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...KLBB IS
EXPECTED TO SEE PERIODS OF -RA THOUGH FIELD SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR
ABOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY SW OF KLBB AND WE COULD SEE SOME OF THESE MOVE INTO THE
TERMINAL AREA. KCDS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
OUR WEATHER WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ODILE WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.  BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONE THROUGH TEXAS THENCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHT ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD WANE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH FOCUSED MORE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.  IN FACT...THE NERN ZONES MAY STAY
DRY.  THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES ARE PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GET AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING WITH THESE CONDITIONS.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP
THE MENTION GOING NORTHEAST THROUGH WILL KEEP THE QPF MORE OR LESS
SILENT WHILE INCREASING POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE ACROSS FAR SWRN TEXAS/NERN OLD MEXICO IS AIDING IN
TRANSLATING TROPICAL STORM ODILE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE THIS NEWRD
TREK ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS SUCH...ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM ODILE
AND ALSO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED PWATS
RANGING BETWEEN 1.60-1.90 INCHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ODILE
EVOLVING TO LINGERING REMNANTS/A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIFT
NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION COMMENCING
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
ON THE RISE AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AN ALREADY PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL BEING A POSSIBILITY.
AS WAS SEEN TODAY...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE INITIALLY FAVORED TOMORROW...WITH
COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY...DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE UA DISTURBANCE.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION...AS IT IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE UA
DISTURBANCE...WHICH LEADS TO UL SUPPORT LACKING A BIT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE
THEREFORE TRENDED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS
WHICH REFLECT THE FOLLOWING: /1/ INCREASED POPS ON THE CAPROCK TO
LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY THUS TYING IN ON THE START OF THE UA
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.../2/ THE DISTURBANCE WILL
EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER A SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE CWA...AND HENCE PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH AN UA RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM ALOFT...AS EXHIBITED BY
TOP-DOWN DRYING PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS FOCUS WILL TURN TO YET ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP BY MID-WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH IN THIS
REGARD AS OPPOSED TO THE DRYER ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INSERTING MENTIONABLE POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT ATTM...AND AWAIT MODEL
RUN CONSISTENCY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S WHICH IS SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  60  78  60  77 /  30  30  30  50  60
TULIA         80  62  81  62  80 /  20  20  30  40  60
PLAINVIEW     78  63  80  62  80 /  20  30  30  40  60
LEVELLAND     75  63  77  62  78 /  50  40  40  50  60
LUBBOCK       78  64  79  64  79 /  40  30  40  50  60
DENVER CITY   78  64  76  63  80 /  70  50  50  50  60
BROWNFIELD    77  64  78  63  79 /  60  50  50  50  60
CHILDRESS     87  66  86  66  81 /  20  20  20  20  50
SPUR          80  66  82  65  81 /  30  30  30  40  50
ASPERMONT     82  68  84  68  84 /  30  30  30  40  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBRO 171106 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
606 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. RADAR IS QUIETER THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A FEW MARINE SHOWERS DEPICTED. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW
MID VALLEY LOW CLOUDS FROM OBSERVATIONS AND JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN A FEW SPOTS IS
NOT SIGNIFICANT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MOSTLY ABOVE 3 KFT BY LATE
MORNING DUE TO AMPLE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ISOLD
SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP TODAY...INCLUDING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH PWAT HOVERING AROUND TWO INCHES. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF...WILL TEND TO STABILIZE WEATHER CONDITIONS HOWEVER...WITH A
SITUATION MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WHICH
COULD BE OF CONCERN TO AREAS WHICH RECENTLY RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SUCCEED IN DEVELOPING SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND INHIBITION IN THE SOUNDING...AND FEEL THAT TODAY MIGHT BE BETTER
FOR WESTWARD MVG SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAN TOMORROW...BUT ANOTHER
SEA BREEZE ROUND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING WITH
ODILE WILL STILL BE IN THE MIX. MID 70S WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH
A FEW MORE LOW CLDS DUE TO WINDS BACKING A BIT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW. LOOK FOR INCREASED LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK
CAP BUT STILL PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT TRENDED POPS DOWN JUST A WEE BIT...10 PERCENT HERE AND
THERE...BASED ON MORE STABILITY AND A LESSER SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPS BUT BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE
FROM THE BLEND BASED ON TUESDAY`S PERFORMANCE AND CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME SUN AGAIN TODAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL RETAIN RICH COLUMN MOISTURE WITH
850-700MB RH VALUES OVER 70 PERCENT. NORTHWESTERLY 300-500MB FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THAT LAYER OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT 20 TO 30 PCT
POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO 40 PCT VALLEY
WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 50 PCT OVER THE RANCHLANDS WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ENHANCING
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.0 TO 2.2
INCHES WILL POSITION ANY CELL THAT GETS GOING TO BE A VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCER...ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION AND COVERAGE SHOULD
PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FLOODING RISK...ASSUMING LIMITED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS DISRUPTS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 850 TO 700MB
MOISTURE TAP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ABOUT 10
TO 15 KNOT FLOW GOING. BOTH SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON WEAK WAVES
DEVELOPED BY CONVECTION OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN. THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE BASED ON HOW THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
BEHAVED THIS SEASON AND LEANED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
ECMWF...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST WELL. THIS CALLS
FOR LOW POPS IN THE MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 PCT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE
REMAIN IN MOIST 850-700MB SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO
REAL DISCERNIBLE WAVES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WENT WITH POP
PATTERN FAVORING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WORKING
INTO SEABREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH 30 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED ZONES...BASICALLY VALLEY WIDE SUNDAY
AND IN A RAYMONDVILLE/HEBBRONVILLE/FALFURRIAS TRIANGLE ON MONDAY
SURROUNDED BY 20 PCT POPS. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT
PERSISTENT 500MB SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY AND ULTIMATELY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
BY MAKING NEW UPDRAFTS FIGHT A MORE HOSTILE AIRMASS.

TUESDAY THE ECMWF PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGING OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH ULTIMATELY HELPS PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS A JET MAX INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM NEARLY DUE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WHICH BETTER AGREES WITH THE ONGOING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO LEAN IN A SLIGHT MAJORITY
TOWARDS THE MORE NORTHWESTWARD ORIENTED SPEED MAX WHICH LENDS
CREDIBILITY TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
STRONGER WITH RIDGING THAT RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
INTRODUCED 20/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONT. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.

WEDNESDAY THE GFS SENDS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH A 300MB WEST TEXAS TROUGH WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WHICH GENERATES A WEST TEXAS SFC CYCLONE
THAT RIDES OVER A STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HOLDS UP BETTER RUN TO RUN AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
STRENGTH OF THE 00Z GFS TROUGH WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST JUST
HOLDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A SHIFT THOUGH
TOWARDS A FINAL GFS SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN
RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH WEST
GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TWO TO FOUR FEET SEAS WILL PERSIST ON THE
GULF...WITH A LGT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE BAY. AN ISOLATED MARINE
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68/CAMPBELL





000
FXUS64 KBRO 171106 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
606 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. RADAR IS QUIETER THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A FEW MARINE SHOWERS DEPICTED. LOOKING AT JUST A FEW
MID VALLEY LOW CLOUDS FROM OBSERVATIONS AND JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE ORIGINATING FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN A FEW SPOTS IS
NOT SIGNIFICANT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MOSTLY ABOVE 3 KFT BY LATE
MORNING DUE TO AMPLE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ISOLD
SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP TODAY...INCLUDING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH PWAT HOVERING AROUND TWO INCHES. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF...WILL TEND TO STABILIZE WEATHER CONDITIONS HOWEVER...WITH A
SITUATION MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WHICH
COULD BE OF CONCERN TO AREAS WHICH RECENTLY RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SUCCEED IN DEVELOPING SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND INHIBITION IN THE SOUNDING...AND FEEL THAT TODAY MIGHT BE BETTER
FOR WESTWARD MVG SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAN TOMORROW...BUT ANOTHER
SEA BREEZE ROUND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING WITH
ODILE WILL STILL BE IN THE MIX. MID 70S WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH
A FEW MORE LOW CLDS DUE TO WINDS BACKING A BIT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW. LOOK FOR INCREASED LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK
CAP BUT STILL PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT TRENDED POPS DOWN JUST A WEE BIT...10 PERCENT HERE AND
THERE...BASED ON MORE STABILITY AND A LESSER SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPS BUT BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE
FROM THE BLEND BASED ON TUESDAY`S PERFORMANCE AND CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME SUN AGAIN TODAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL RETAIN RICH COLUMN MOISTURE WITH
850-700MB RH VALUES OVER 70 PERCENT. NORTHWESTERLY 300-500MB FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THAT LAYER OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT 20 TO 30 PCT
POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO 40 PCT VALLEY
WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 50 PCT OVER THE RANCHLANDS WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ENHANCING
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.0 TO 2.2
INCHES WILL POSITION ANY CELL THAT GETS GOING TO BE A VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCER...ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION AND COVERAGE SHOULD
PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FLOODING RISK...ASSUMING LIMITED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS DISRUPTS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 850 TO 700MB
MOISTURE TAP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ABOUT 10
TO 15 KNOT FLOW GOING. BOTH SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON WEAK WAVES
DEVELOPED BY CONVECTION OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN. THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE BASED ON HOW THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
BEHAVED THIS SEASON AND LEANED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
ECMWF...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST WELL. THIS CALLS
FOR LOW POPS IN THE MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 PCT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE
REMAIN IN MOIST 850-700MB SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO
REAL DISCERNIBLE WAVES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WENT WITH POP
PATTERN FAVORING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WORKING
INTO SEABREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH 30 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED ZONES...BASICALLY VALLEY WIDE SUNDAY
AND IN A RAYMONDVILLE/HEBBRONVILLE/FALFURRIAS TRIANGLE ON MONDAY
SURROUNDED BY 20 PCT POPS. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT
PERSISTENT 500MB SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY AND ULTIMATELY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
BY MAKING NEW UPDRAFTS FIGHT A MORE HOSTILE AIRMASS.

TUESDAY THE ECMWF PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGING OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH ULTIMATELY HELPS PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS A JET MAX INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM NEARLY DUE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WHICH BETTER AGREES WITH THE ONGOING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO LEAN IN A SLIGHT MAJORITY
TOWARDS THE MORE NORTHWESTWARD ORIENTED SPEED MAX WHICH LENDS
CREDIBILITY TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
STRONGER WITH RIDGING THAT RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
INTRODUCED 20/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONT. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.

WEDNESDAY THE GFS SENDS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH A 300MB WEST TEXAS TROUGH WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WHICH GENERATES A WEST TEXAS SFC CYCLONE
THAT RIDES OVER A STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HOLDS UP BETTER RUN TO RUN AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
STRENGTH OF THE 00Z GFS TROUGH WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST JUST
HOLDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A SHIFT THOUGH
TOWARDS A FINAL GFS SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN
RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH WEST
GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TWO TO FOUR FEET SEAS WILL PERSIST ON THE
GULF...WITH A LGT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE BAY. AN ISOLATED MARINE
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68/CAMPBELL





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 170946
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
446 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE GOING FCST OF CONTINUED RAINS FOR
TODAY/TOMORROW. VERY HIGH PWS NOTED OVER THE REGION (~2.3") AND
NOT EXPECTING THAT WE WILL NEED A LOT OF HEATING FOR PCPN DEVEL-
OPMENT TO START AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN. AS THIS MOISTURE
LINGERS INTO TOMORROW WE MAY HAVE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE TO DEAL
WITH AS WELL. WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH AVG RAINFALL TOTALS FROM .5
TO 1`...ISO 3-4" TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE SOME BY FRI (ON INTO THE WEEKEND) WITH
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROF (ODILE REM-
NANTS). HOWEVER WILL BE KEEPING ISO/SCT POPS IN FOR THIS PERIOD
AS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. LONG RANGE
MODELS KEEPING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AOA MON...BUT
WITH VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH. ECMWF KEEPING ITS FROPA A BIT
MORE ROBUST THAN GFS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT PROGS
OF A FAIRLY DEEP N/NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR THIS TIME FRAME. 41

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW SHOWERS AROUND GALVESTON BAY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND MATAGORDA BAY AND MOVING NORTH. WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF APPEARS TO BE DICTATING MOTION
FOR NOW BUT AS THE RIDGING MOVES WEST EXPECT THAT WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SETX AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO INCREASE
COVERAGE. LIGHT WINDS TYPICALLY IN THE 7-12 KNOT RANGE WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH. MAY HAVE A CLUSTER TO DEAL WITH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW MORNING AS NW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH
PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO LA AND MOIST AXIS LINES UP BENEATH THE
TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCES COMING IN NW. AM FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
MESSY WX ACROSS THE REGION. LINE OF LOW CLOUDS IFR/VLIFR FROM
6R3- CXO-11R WITH HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE LINE. SOME DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHWARD SEEMS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO FOR NOW WILL
KEEP IAH VFR. SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT IS HARD TO TELL IF ONE OF THE AIRPORTS IS
FAVORED FOR GETTING WHACKED. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A TEMPO GOING
FOR ROUGHLY 17-21Z BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IFR VISBY MAY DEVELOP WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO DEPART THAN THEY DID THIS
EVENING AND MOST MODELS KEEP IT ACTIVE THROUGH 01-03Z THURSDAY.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  75  86  72  90 /  60  30  60  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  74  86  73  89 /  60  30  60  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  79  85  78  87 /  60  40  60  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 170946
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
446 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE GOING FCST OF CONTINUED RAINS FOR
TODAY/TOMORROW. VERY HIGH PWS NOTED OVER THE REGION (~2.3") AND
NOT EXPECTING THAT WE WILL NEED A LOT OF HEATING FOR PCPN DEVEL-
OPMENT TO START AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN. AS THIS MOISTURE
LINGERS INTO TOMORROW WE MAY HAVE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE TO DEAL
WITH AS WELL. WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH AVG RAINFALL TOTALS FROM .5
TO 1`...ISO 3-4" TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE SOME BY FRI (ON INTO THE WEEKEND) WITH
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROF (ODILE REM-
NANTS). HOWEVER WILL BE KEEPING ISO/SCT POPS IN FOR THIS PERIOD
AS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. LONG RANGE
MODELS KEEPING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AOA MON...BUT
WITH VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH. ECMWF KEEPING ITS FROPA A BIT
MORE ROBUST THAN GFS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT PROGS
OF A FAIRLY DEEP N/NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR THIS TIME FRAME. 41

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW SHOWERS AROUND GALVESTON BAY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND MATAGORDA BAY AND MOVING NORTH. WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF APPEARS TO BE DICTATING MOTION
FOR NOW BUT AS THE RIDGING MOVES WEST EXPECT THAT WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SETX AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO INCREASE
COVERAGE. LIGHT WINDS TYPICALLY IN THE 7-12 KNOT RANGE WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH. MAY HAVE A CLUSTER TO DEAL WITH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW MORNING AS NW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH
PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO LA AND MOIST AXIS LINES UP BENEATH THE
TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCES COMING IN NW. AM FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
MESSY WX ACROSS THE REGION. LINE OF LOW CLOUDS IFR/VLIFR FROM
6R3- CXO-11R WITH HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE LINE. SOME DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHWARD SEEMS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO FOR NOW WILL
KEEP IAH VFR. SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT IS HARD TO TELL IF ONE OF THE AIRPORTS IS
FAVORED FOR GETTING WHACKED. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A TEMPO GOING
FOR ROUGHLY 17-21Z BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IFR VISBY MAY DEVELOP WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO DEPART THAN THEY DID THIS
EVENING AND MOST MODELS KEEP IT ACTIVE THROUGH 01-03Z THURSDAY.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  75  86  72  90 /  60  30  60  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  74  86  73  89 /  60  30  60  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  79  85  78  87 /  60  40  60  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 170946
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
446 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE GOING FCST OF CONTINUED RAINS FOR
TODAY/TOMORROW. VERY HIGH PWS NOTED OVER THE REGION (~2.3") AND
NOT EXPECTING THAT WE WILL NEED A LOT OF HEATING FOR PCPN DEVEL-
OPMENT TO START AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN. AS THIS MOISTURE
LINGERS INTO TOMORROW WE MAY HAVE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE TO DEAL
WITH AS WELL. WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH AVG RAINFALL TOTALS FROM .5
TO 1`...ISO 3-4" TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE SOME BY FRI (ON INTO THE WEEKEND) WITH
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROF (ODILE REM-
NANTS). HOWEVER WILL BE KEEPING ISO/SCT POPS IN FOR THIS PERIOD
AS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. LONG RANGE
MODELS KEEPING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AOA MON...BUT
WITH VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH. ECMWF KEEPING ITS FROPA A BIT
MORE ROBUST THAN GFS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT PROGS
OF A FAIRLY DEEP N/NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR THIS TIME FRAME. 41

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW SHOWERS AROUND GALVESTON BAY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND MATAGORDA BAY AND MOVING NORTH. WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF APPEARS TO BE DICTATING MOTION
FOR NOW BUT AS THE RIDGING MOVES WEST EXPECT THAT WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SETX AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO INCREASE
COVERAGE. LIGHT WINDS TYPICALLY IN THE 7-12 KNOT RANGE WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH. MAY HAVE A CLUSTER TO DEAL WITH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW MORNING AS NW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH
PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO LA AND MOIST AXIS LINES UP BENEATH THE
TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCES COMING IN NW. AM FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
MESSY WX ACROSS THE REGION. LINE OF LOW CLOUDS IFR/VLIFR FROM
6R3- CXO-11R WITH HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE LINE. SOME DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHWARD SEEMS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO FOR NOW WILL
KEEP IAH VFR. SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT IS HARD TO TELL IF ONE OF THE AIRPORTS IS
FAVORED FOR GETTING WHACKED. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A TEMPO GOING
FOR ROUGHLY 17-21Z BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IFR VISBY MAY DEVELOP WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO DEPART THAN THEY DID THIS
EVENING AND MOST MODELS KEEP IT ACTIVE THROUGH 01-03Z THURSDAY.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  75  86  72  90 /  60  30  60  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  74  86  73  89 /  60  30  60  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  79  85  78  87 /  60  40  60  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99




000
FXUS64 KHGX 170946
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
446 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE GOING FCST OF CONTINUED RAINS FOR
TODAY/TOMORROW. VERY HIGH PWS NOTED OVER THE REGION (~2.3") AND
NOT EXPECTING THAT WE WILL NEED A LOT OF HEATING FOR PCPN DEVEL-
OPMENT TO START AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN. AS THIS MOISTURE
LINGERS INTO TOMORROW WE MAY HAVE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE TO DEAL
WITH AS WELL. WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH AVG RAINFALL TOTALS FROM .5
TO 1`...ISO 3-4" TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE SOME BY FRI (ON INTO THE WEEKEND) WITH
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROF (ODILE REM-
NANTS). HOWEVER WILL BE KEEPING ISO/SCT POPS IN FOR THIS PERIOD
AS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. LONG RANGE
MODELS KEEPING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AOA MON...BUT
WITH VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH. ECMWF KEEPING ITS FROPA A BIT
MORE ROBUST THAN GFS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT PROGS
OF A FAIRLY DEEP N/NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR THIS TIME FRAME. 41

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW SHOWERS AROUND GALVESTON BAY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND MATAGORDA BAY AND MOVING NORTH. WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF APPEARS TO BE DICTATING MOTION
FOR NOW BUT AS THE RIDGING MOVES WEST EXPECT THAT WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SETX AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO INCREASE
COVERAGE. LIGHT WINDS TYPICALLY IN THE 7-12 KNOT RANGE WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH. MAY HAVE A CLUSTER TO DEAL WITH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW MORNING AS NW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH
PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO LA AND MOIST AXIS LINES UP BENEATH THE
TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCES COMING IN NW. AM FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
MESSY WX ACROSS THE REGION. LINE OF LOW CLOUDS IFR/VLIFR FROM
6R3- CXO-11R WITH HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE LINE. SOME DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHWARD SEEMS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO FOR NOW WILL
KEEP IAH VFR. SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT IS HARD TO TELL IF ONE OF THE AIRPORTS IS
FAVORED FOR GETTING WHACKED. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A TEMPO GOING
FOR ROUGHLY 17-21Z BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IFR VISBY MAY DEVELOP WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO DEPART THAN THEY DID THIS
EVENING AND MOST MODELS KEEP IT ACTIVE THROUGH 01-03Z THURSDAY.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  75  86  72  90 /  60  30  60  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  74  86  73  89 /  60  30  60  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  79  85  78  87 /  60  40  60  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KCRP 170943
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
443 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER RIDGE IS POSITIONED
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND EXTENDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY PULL TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH BOUTS OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
DESPITE THIS...MOST OF THE MIDLEVEL ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PWATS ROUGHLY NEAR 2.3 INCHES...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY.
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE THERMALLY DRIVEN...PUSHING FURTHER INLAND
ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE. QUIET PERIODS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT A BIT
HIGHER RESEMBLING SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS YESTERDAY...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS PROG TO REMAIN IN PLACE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND TRACK OF H5 VORTICITY MAXIMUMS. BOTH ECMWF/GFS
HINT THAT RIDGING SHOULD BE WEAKER ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY/THURS WITH
LOWER HEIGHT FIELDS AND GREATER DPVA ACROSS OUR CWA. THUS...HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR DAILY CONVECTION AS SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST IN THE H9 TO H6
LAYER. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BECOME JUMBLED REGARDING HANDLING OF A
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT. ECMWF WANTS TO GRADUALLY BRING A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH /FOLLOWED BY ACTUAL COLD FRONT/ THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS DELAYS FROPA UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF GIVEN SOMEWHAT BETTER
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...BUT AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN ANY OF THE
GUIDANCE EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES NEXT WEEK
DEPENDENT UPON FROPA PASSAGE/TIMING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR LATE
THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND...MEDIUM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  78  91  77  91  /  50  20  30  20  50
VICTORIA          89  75  90  76  93  /  50  30  40  20  50
LAREDO            94  77  95  78  96  /  50  30  20  20  30
ALICE             92  76  93  76  93  /  50  20  40  10  50
ROCKPORT          87  79  88  78  90  /  50  30  30  30  50
COTULLA           92  75  94  76  95  /  50  30  20  20  30
KINGSVILLE        92  77  93  77  93  /  40  20  40  10  50
NAVY CORPUS       87  80  88  79  89  /  50  30  30  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 170943
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
443 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER RIDGE IS POSITIONED
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND EXTENDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY PULL TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH BOUTS OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
DESPITE THIS...MOST OF THE MIDLEVEL ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PWATS ROUGHLY NEAR 2.3 INCHES...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY.
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE THERMALLY DRIVEN...PUSHING FURTHER INLAND
ALONG THE THETA-E RIDGE. QUIET PERIODS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EVENING
BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT A BIT
HIGHER RESEMBLING SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS YESTERDAY...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS PROG TO REMAIN IN PLACE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND TRACK OF H5 VORTICITY MAXIMUMS. BOTH ECMWF/GFS
HINT THAT RIDGING SHOULD BE WEAKER ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY/THURS WITH
LOWER HEIGHT FIELDS AND GREATER DPVA ACROSS OUR CWA. THUS...HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE OVERALL
PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR DAILY CONVECTION AS SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST IN THE H9 TO H6
LAYER. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BECOME JUMBLED REGARDING HANDLING OF A
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT. ECMWF WANTS TO GRADUALLY BRING A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH /FOLLOWED BY ACTUAL COLD FRONT/ THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS DELAYS FROPA UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF GIVEN SOMEWHAT BETTER
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...BUT AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN ANY OF THE
GUIDANCE EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW END CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST WITH FROPA. TEMPS OVERALL WILL BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES NEXT WEEK
DEPENDENT UPON FROPA PASSAGE/TIMING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR LATE
THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND...MEDIUM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  78  91  77  91  /  50  20  30  20  50
VICTORIA          89  75  90  76  93  /  50  30  40  20  50
LAREDO            94  77  95  78  96  /  50  30  20  20  30
ALICE             92  76  93  76  93  /  50  20  40  10  50
ROCKPORT          87  79  88  78  90  /  50  30  30  30  50
COTULLA           92  75  94  76  95  /  50  30  20  20  30
KINGSVILLE        92  77  93  77  93  /  40  20  40  10  50
NAVY CORPUS       87  80  88  79  89  /  50  30  30  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMAF 170933
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
433 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, a little further north than anticipated 24 hours ago.  To
the SW, WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile over the northern
Gulf of California, and will continue to be the source region for
heavy rainfall potential for the next few days.  00Z KMAF RAOB
remained saturated w/a PWAT of 1.65", about 2 STD DEVs/150% above
normal for September.  Throw in a KI of 39 and anemic storm motion,
and flash flooding will continue to be the main concern for the near
term.  Models drift the remnants of Odile over wrn Sonora and into e
central AZ over the next few days, sending disturbances up and over
the upper ridge to the south and into SE NM/West Texas.  NM/far
West Texas continues to be the favored area for this activity, and
we`ve gone ahead and issued a FFA thru tonight for Eddy and
Culberson Counties.  Probably could have included adjacent zones,
but will let the next shift decide.  Odile is forecast to open and
get picked up in SW flow aloft, and will pass thru the region
Thursday night.  This may necessitate extending the FFA temporally as
well.

Once Odile passes, upper lvl ridging begins building back in over
the area, w/temps peaking at around a cat abv normal Saturday before
a cold front moves thru the region Saturday night.  Models do not
define the discontinuity w/this front quite as sharp as 24 hours
ago, w/the main push of cold air arriving Sunday afternoon.  Thus,
temps shouldn`t come back down to normal (or below) until
Monday.

For temps, we`ll continue w/narrower diurnal spreads than what MOS
is showing, and H85 temps trends/forecast soundings suggest leaning
towards the warmer GFS.

Only other concern is the Rio Grande, where elevated flows are
already occurring due to reservoir releases on the Rio Conchos.
Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  79  66  /  40  20  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              86  68  81  67  /  40  20  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                84  67  78  66  /  60  60  30  40
DRYDEN TX                  88  72  87  71  /  20  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  70  87  70  /  30  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  64  74  64  /  60  60  30  40
HOBBS NM                   79  64  74  64  /  50  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   83  61  79  60  /  20  20  50  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  67  81  67  /  40  20  30  20
ODESSA TX                  86  67  80  67  /  40  20  30  20
WINK TX                    88  67  86  67  /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

72/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 170933
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
433 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, a little further north than anticipated 24 hours ago.  To
the SW, WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile over the northern
Gulf of California, and will continue to be the source region for
heavy rainfall potential for the next few days.  00Z KMAF RAOB
remained saturated w/a PWAT of 1.65", about 2 STD DEVs/150% above
normal for September.  Throw in a KI of 39 and anemic storm motion,
and flash flooding will continue to be the main concern for the near
term.  Models drift the remnants of Odile over wrn Sonora and into e
central AZ over the next few days, sending disturbances up and over
the upper ridge to the south and into SE NM/West Texas.  NM/far
West Texas continues to be the favored area for this activity, and
we`ve gone ahead and issued a FFA thru tonight for Eddy and
Culberson Counties.  Probably could have included adjacent zones,
but will let the next shift decide.  Odile is forecast to open and
get picked up in SW flow aloft, and will pass thru the region
Thursday night.  This may necessitate extending the FFA temporally as
well.

Once Odile passes, upper lvl ridging begins building back in over
the area, w/temps peaking at around a cat abv normal Saturday before
a cold front moves thru the region Saturday night.  Models do not
define the discontinuity w/this front quite as sharp as 24 hours
ago, w/the main push of cold air arriving Sunday afternoon.  Thus,
temps shouldn`t come back down to normal (or below) until
Monday.

For temps, we`ll continue w/narrower diurnal spreads than what MOS
is showing, and H85 temps trends/forecast soundings suggest leaning
towards the warmer GFS.

Only other concern is the Rio Grande, where elevated flows are
already occurring due to reservoir releases on the Rio Conchos.
Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  79  66  /  40  20  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              86  68  81  67  /  40  20  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                84  67  78  66  /  60  60  30  40
DRYDEN TX                  88  72  87  71  /  20  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  70  87  70  /  30  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  64  74  64  /  60  60  30  40
HOBBS NM                   79  64  74  64  /  50  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   83  61  79  60  /  20  20  50  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  67  81  67  /  40  20  30  20
ODESSA TX                  86  67  80  67  /  40  20  30  20
WINK TX                    88  67  86  67  /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

72/44

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http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 170933
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
433 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, a little further north than anticipated 24 hours ago.  To
the SW, WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile over the northern
Gulf of California, and will continue to be the source region for
heavy rainfall potential for the next few days.  00Z KMAF RAOB
remained saturated w/a PWAT of 1.65", about 2 STD DEVs/150% above
normal for September.  Throw in a KI of 39 and anemic storm motion,
and flash flooding will continue to be the main concern for the near
term.  Models drift the remnants of Odile over wrn Sonora and into e
central AZ over the next few days, sending disturbances up and over
the upper ridge to the south and into SE NM/West Texas.  NM/far
West Texas continues to be the favored area for this activity, and
we`ve gone ahead and issued a FFA thru tonight for Eddy and
Culberson Counties.  Probably could have included adjacent zones,
but will let the next shift decide.  Odile is forecast to open and
get picked up in SW flow aloft, and will pass thru the region
Thursday night.  This may necessitate extending the FFA temporally as
well.

Once Odile passes, upper lvl ridging begins building back in over
the area, w/temps peaking at around a cat abv normal Saturday before
a cold front moves thru the region Saturday night.  Models do not
define the discontinuity w/this front quite as sharp as 24 hours
ago, w/the main push of cold air arriving Sunday afternoon.  Thus,
temps shouldn`t come back down to normal (or below) until
Monday.

For temps, we`ll continue w/narrower diurnal spreads than what MOS
is showing, and H85 temps trends/forecast soundings suggest leaning
towards the warmer GFS.

Only other concern is the Rio Grande, where elevated flows are
already occurring due to reservoir releases on the Rio Conchos.
Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  79  66  /  40  20  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              86  68  81  67  /  40  20  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                84  67  78  66  /  60  60  30  40
DRYDEN TX                  88  72  87  71  /  20  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  70  87  70  /  30  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  64  74  64  /  60  60  30  40
HOBBS NM                   79  64  74  64  /  50  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   83  61  79  60  /  20  20  50  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  67  81  67  /  40  20  30  20
ODESSA TX                  86  67  80  67  /  40  20  30  20
WINK TX                    88  67  86  67  /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

72/44

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 170933
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
433 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, a little further north than anticipated 24 hours ago.  To
the SW, WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile over the northern
Gulf of California, and will continue to be the source region for
heavy rainfall potential for the next few days.  00Z KMAF RAOB
remained saturated w/a PWAT of 1.65", about 2 STD DEVs/150% above
normal for September.  Throw in a KI of 39 and anemic storm motion,
and flash flooding will continue to be the main concern for the near
term.  Models drift the remnants of Odile over wrn Sonora and into e
central AZ over the next few days, sending disturbances up and over
the upper ridge to the south and into SE NM/West Texas.  NM/far
West Texas continues to be the favored area for this activity, and
we`ve gone ahead and issued a FFA thru tonight for Eddy and
Culberson Counties.  Probably could have included adjacent zones,
but will let the next shift decide.  Odile is forecast to open and
get picked up in SW flow aloft, and will pass thru the region
Thursday night.  This may necessitate extending the FFA temporally as
well.

Once Odile passes, upper lvl ridging begins building back in over
the area, w/temps peaking at around a cat abv normal Saturday before
a cold front moves thru the region Saturday night.  Models do not
define the discontinuity w/this front quite as sharp as 24 hours
ago, w/the main push of cold air arriving Sunday afternoon.  Thus,
temps shouldn`t come back down to normal (or below) until
Monday.

For temps, we`ll continue w/narrower diurnal spreads than what MOS
is showing, and H85 temps trends/forecast soundings suggest leaning
towards the warmer GFS.

Only other concern is the Rio Grande, where elevated flows are
already occurring due to reservoir releases on the Rio Conchos.
Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  79  66  /  40  20  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              86  68  81  67  /  40  20  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                84  67  78  66  /  60  60  30  40
DRYDEN TX                  88  72  87  71  /  20  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  70  87  70  /  30  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  64  74  64  /  60  60  30  40
HOBBS NM                   79  64  74  64  /  50  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   83  61  79  60  /  20  20  50  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  67  81  67  /  40  20  30  20
ODESSA TX                  86  67  80  67  /  40  20  30  20
WINK TX                    88  67  86  67  /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

72/44

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  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 170923
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
323 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OVERNIGHT A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER BAND OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE SLOWLY MOVED NORTH ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. TODAY MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL SEE A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IN A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACH OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT A LOT OF
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH SOME
STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING ALSO INCREASING IN LIKELY HOOD TONIGHT.
TONIGHT THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE GILA REGION. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD
SHOT AT WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS RAIN. SOME OF IT COULD BE VERY
HEAVY WITH FLASH FLOOD RESULTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION...HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL HANG BACK TO KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STILL UNDER THE GUN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
AS FORMER HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO TRACK AS FORECAST TOWARD
TUCSON. THE EXPECTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS IN PROGRESS
OVERNIGHT BUT DISPLACED A BIT WEST OF MONDAY NIGHT`S RAIN PATH.
ALL AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ARE GETTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
RAIN...BUT EL PASO...HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES HAVE BEEN LEFT
OUT AS OF 3AM. LOOKING AT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THE
PROBABILITY OF THOSE COUNTIES GETTING MUCH DURING THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING IS MINIMAL. DRY SLOTTING IS WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTH
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE STORM AND THE BAND IS TRACKING NORTH WITH
LITTLE ADDITION DEVELOPMENT SOUTH.

HOWEVER TODAY WE STAND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE DRY SLOT. POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
A BIT OF SUNSHINE IS BETTER AND SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...PW`S STILL ABOVE 1.6"...AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE QUICK TO
DESTABILIZE EVEN ABSENT OF ANY DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE.
THUS WE KEEP THE POPS UP DESPITE THE INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE LATEST
BAND AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT.

LIKE WE DID YESTERDAY...WE MIGHT SEE A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. NIGHT LIKE THE LAST TWO WE EXPECT
ANOTHER UP-TIC IN RAIN CHANCES...THUS POPS IN THE 70-100% PROBABILITY
ARE COMMON AND STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 1-3" RANGE
EAST...2-4" CENTRAL...3-5" WESTERN LOWLANDS...4-6" AREA MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL BE GREAT VARIABILITY IN THE PCPN AMOUNT ACROSS THE
REGION AND GREATER AMOUNTS UP TO 8-9" OVER LOCAL AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THOSE GREATER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER AREAS MTNS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY WE CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT MIDNIGHT. OF SPECIAL NOTE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WILL BEGIN TRACKING
EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE
SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING RAIN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY. DRIER AIR IN WESTERLY AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION LATE FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE WON`T TOTALLY DRY
OUT THE AIRMASS SO WE`LL KEEP CHANCES FOR ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW A BACKDOOR FRONT TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE AN UPPER LOW PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD RAMP UP OUR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER A DOWN-TICK
DAY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE WATCHING YET ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM
ATTEMPTING TO CRAWL UP THE BAJA...MUCH LIKE NORBERT DID. IT COULD
GIVE US ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE LIKELY HOOD IS THAT IT WILL TURN OUT TO SEA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 17/12Z - 18/12Z...
IMPULSES ROTATING SLOWLY UP AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF TROPICAL
STORM ODILE...WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NM / WEST TX THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWLAND CLDS SCT 010-020 BKN-OVC CIGS TO 030-050
AGL...WITH SCT VIS TO 3 SM IN -SHRA/SHRA AND TSRA. CIGS TO 005
NEAR MTNS OVER LOWLANDS. LOOK FOR LIFR BKN MTN OBSCURATIONS
THROUGH PD. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE STORMS. WINDS
WILL BE FROM ENE-SE AROUND 06-09 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING TRACK OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  FEATURE
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AS IT INITIALLY HEADS NORTH
EAST INTO ARIZONA...THEN EAST NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NM.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
WITH UP TO 9 INCHES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY FRIDAY EVENING
ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. A BIT DRIER FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT
PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH PRESSING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 84  68  82  69  87 /  60  80  80  50  30
SIERRA BLANCA           82  63  78  62  82 /  50  70  80  40  30
LAS CRUCES              82  65  77  66  85 /  60  90  80  50  20
ALAMOGORDO              81  64  78  65  86 /  80 100 100  80  30
CLOUDCROFT              58  49  58  49  66 / 100 100 100 100  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   79  64  75  65  85 /  80 100  90  60  20
SILVER CITY             76  60  69  60  81 / 100 100  90  70  30
DEMING                  83  64  78  64  86 /  80  90  70  50  20
LORDSBURG               83  65  74  64  86 / 100 100  70  60  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      83  68  82  68  86 /  60  80  80  50  30
DELL CITY               86  65  82  64  87 /  80  70  80  60  40
FORT HANCOCK            87  67  84  67  88 /  50  70  80  40  30
LOMA LINDA              78  62  75  64  80 /  60  80  80  50  30
FABENS                  85  66  82  67  88 /  50  80  80  50  30
SANTA TERESA            82  66  81  67  85 /  60  90  80  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          80  65  78  66  84 /  70  90  90  60  30
JORNADA RANGE           81  62  78  61  84 /  70  90  90  60  30
HATCH                   79  64  76  63  83 /  80 100  90  50  20
COLUMBUS                82  65  80  66  86 /  60  90  70  50  20
OROGRANDE               80  66  77  66  86 /  70  90  90  70  30
MAYHILL                 68  54  66  55  73 /  90 100 100 100  50
MESCALERO               68  55  67  56  75 /  90 100 100 100  50
TIMBERON                68  52  66  54  73 / 100 100 100  90  40
WINSTON                 70  55  66  58  76 / 100 100 100  70  40
HILLSBORO               76  59  70  62  80 / 100 100  90  70  30
SPACEPORT               78  63  75  63  83 /  80 100  90  60  20
LAKE ROBERTS            74  55  69  58  82 / 100 100 100  70  40
HURLEY                  79  61  71  63  83 / 100 100  80  70  20
CLIFF                   77  54  71  54  83 / 100 100  80  70  40
MULE CREEK              76  51  69  53  82 / 100 100  90  70  30
FAYWOOD                 78  61  71  63  82 / 100 100  80  70  20
ANIMAS                  81  66  77  65  86 /  70 100  70  60  30
HACHITA                 83  62  78  62  87 /  70 100  70  60  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  62  80  61  85 /  70  90  60  50  30
CLOVERDALE              81  59  75  62  83 /  70 100  70  60  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14/99





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 170923
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
323 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OVERNIGHT A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER BAND OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE SLOWLY MOVED NORTH ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. TODAY MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL SEE A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IN A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACH OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT A LOT OF
CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES WITH SOME
STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING ALSO INCREASING IN LIKELY HOOD TONIGHT.
TONIGHT THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE GILA REGION. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD
SHOT AT WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS RAIN. SOME OF IT COULD BE VERY
HEAVY WITH FLASH FLOOD RESULTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS
THE REGION...HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL HANG BACK TO KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STILL UNDER THE GUN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
AS FORMER HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO TRACK AS FORECAST TOWARD
TUCSON. THE EXPECTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS IN PROGRESS
OVERNIGHT BUT DISPLACED A BIT WEST OF MONDAY NIGHT`S RAIN PATH.
ALL AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ARE GETTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
RAIN...BUT EL PASO...HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES HAVE BEEN LEFT
OUT AS OF 3AM. LOOKING AT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THE
PROBABILITY OF THOSE COUNTIES GETTING MUCH DURING THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING IS MINIMAL. DRY SLOTTING IS WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTH
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE STORM AND THE BAND IS TRACKING NORTH WITH
LITTLE ADDITION DEVELOPMENT SOUTH.

HOWEVER TODAY WE STAND A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE DRY SLOT. POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
A BIT OF SUNSHINE IS BETTER AND SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT
WARMER. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...PW`S STILL ABOVE 1.6"...AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE QUICK TO
DESTABILIZE EVEN ABSENT OF ANY DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE.
THUS WE KEEP THE POPS UP DESPITE THE INTERLUDE BETWEEN THE LATEST
BAND AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT.

LIKE WE DID YESTERDAY...WE MIGHT SEE A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. NIGHT LIKE THE LAST TWO WE EXPECT
ANOTHER UP-TIC IN RAIN CHANCES...THUS POPS IN THE 70-100% PROBABILITY
ARE COMMON AND STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 1-3" RANGE
EAST...2-4" CENTRAL...3-5" WESTERN LOWLANDS...4-6" AREA MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL BE GREAT VARIABILITY IN THE PCPN AMOUNT ACROSS THE
REGION AND GREATER AMOUNTS UP TO 8-9" OVER LOCAL AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THOSE GREATER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER AREAS MTNS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY WE CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT MIDNIGHT. OF SPECIAL NOTE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WILL BEGIN TRACKING
EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE
SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING RAIN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY. DRIER AIR IN WESTERLY AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION LATE FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE WON`T TOTALLY DRY
OUT THE AIRMASS SO WE`LL KEEP CHANCES FOR ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS SHOW A BACKDOOR FRONT TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST
EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE AN UPPER LOW PRESSES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD RAMP UP OUR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER A DOWN-TICK
DAY ON SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE WATCHING YET ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM
ATTEMPTING TO CRAWL UP THE BAJA...MUCH LIKE NORBERT DID. IT COULD
GIVE US ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE LIKELY HOOD IS THAT IT WILL TURN OUT TO SEA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 17/12Z - 18/12Z...
IMPULSES ROTATING SLOWLY UP AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF TROPICAL
STORM ODILE...WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NM / WEST TX THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOOK FOR LOWLAND CLDS SCT 010-020 BKN-OVC CIGS TO 030-050
AGL...WITH SCT VIS TO 3 SM IN -SHRA/SHRA AND TSRA. CIGS TO 005
NEAR MTNS OVER LOWLANDS. LOOK FOR LIFR BKN MTN OBSCURATIONS
THROUGH PD. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE STORMS. WINDS
WILL BE FROM ENE-SE AROUND 06-09 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING TRACK OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  FEATURE
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AS IT INITIALLY HEADS NORTH
EAST INTO ARIZONA...THEN EAST NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NM.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
WITH UP TO 9 INCHES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY FRIDAY EVENING
ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY. A BIT DRIER FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT
PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH PRESSING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 84  68  82  69  87 /  60  80  80  50  30
SIERRA BLANCA           82  63  78  62  82 /  50  70  80  40  30
LAS CRUCES              82  65  77  66  85 /  60  90  80  50  20
ALAMOGORDO              81  64  78  65  86 /  80 100 100  80  30
CLOUDCROFT              58  49  58  49  66 / 100 100 100 100  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   79  64  75  65  85 /  80 100  90  60  20
SILVER CITY             76  60  69  60  81 / 100 100  90  70  30
DEMING                  83  64  78  64  86 /  80  90  70  50  20
LORDSBURG               83  65  74  64  86 / 100 100  70  60  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      83  68  82  68  86 /  60  80  80  50  30
DELL CITY               86  65  82  64  87 /  80  70  80  60  40
FORT HANCOCK            87  67  84  67  88 /  50  70  80  40  30
LOMA LINDA              78  62  75  64  80 /  60  80  80  50  30
FABENS                  85  66  82  67  88 /  50  80  80  50  30
SANTA TERESA            82  66  81  67  85 /  60  90  80  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          80  65  78  66  84 /  70  90  90  60  30
JORNADA RANGE           81  62  78  61  84 /  70  90  90  60  30
HATCH                   79  64  76  63  83 /  80 100  90  50  20
COLUMBUS                82  65  80  66  86 /  60  90  70  50  20
OROGRANDE               80  66  77  66  86 /  70  90  90  70  30
MAYHILL                 68  54  66  55  73 /  90 100 100 100  50
MESCALERO               68  55  67  56  75 /  90 100 100 100  50
TIMBERON                68  52  66  54  73 / 100 100 100  90  40
WINSTON                 70  55  66  58  76 / 100 100 100  70  40
HILLSBORO               76  59  70  62  80 / 100 100  90  70  30
SPACEPORT               78  63  75  63  83 /  80 100  90  60  20
LAKE ROBERTS            74  55  69  58  82 / 100 100 100  70  40
HURLEY                  79  61  71  63  83 / 100 100  80  70  20
CLIFF                   77  54  71  54  83 / 100 100  80  70  40
MULE CREEK              76  51  69  53  82 / 100 100  90  70  30
FAYWOOD                 78  61  71  63  82 / 100 100  80  70  20
ANIMAS                  81  66  77  65  86 /  70 100  70  60  30
HACHITA                 83  62  78  62  87 /  70 100  70  60  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          82  62  80  61  85 /  70  90  60  50  30
CLOVERDALE              81  59  75  62  83 /  70 100  70  60  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14/99






000
FXUS64 KEWX 170905
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATELLITE PW IMAGERY AND EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW A TROPICALLY
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PWS OF 1.8 TO 2.3
INCHES. RICH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AS WEAKENED
TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVES FROM FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LOWER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
CURRENTLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE SAN ANTONIO AREA
WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN GENERALLY DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST PWS ARE LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING. HOWEVER...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. 00Z NAM IS LIKELY AN OUTLIER
WITH ITS HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG I-35.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ARE NOW HAVING
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. WILL GO BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  74  88  71  90 /  70  70  60  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  71  88  70  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  89  72  89 /  60  60  50  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  72  87  70  88 /  60  60  60  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  74  91  76  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  74  86  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  73  91  73  91 /  50  40  40  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  88  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  87  73  90 /  80  70  60  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  76  90  75  90 /  60  50  50  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  75  91  75  91 /  60  50  40  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04






000
FXUS64 KEWX 170905
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SATELLITE PW IMAGERY AND EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW A TROPICALLY
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH PWS OF 1.8 TO 2.3
INCHES. RICH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST AS WEAKENED
TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVES FROM FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER LOWER
LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
CURRENTLY HAVE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE SAN ANTONIO AREA
WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN GENERALLY DECREASE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE
THE HIGHEST PWS ARE LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WHICH
MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING. HOWEVER...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. 00Z NAM IS LIKELY AN OUTLIER
WITH ITS HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
TO ALONG I-35.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
STILL POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. MODELS ARE NOW HAVING
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF DRYING AND COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. WILL GO BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  74  88  71  90 /  70  70  60  30  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  71  88  70  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  89  72  89 /  60  60  50  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            89  72  87  70  88 /  60  60  60  30  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  74  91  76  89 /  30  20  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  74  86  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  73  91  73  91 /  50  40  40  30  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  88  71  89 /  70  70  60  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  87  73  90 /  80  70  60  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  76  90  75  90 /  60  50  50  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  75  91  75  91 /  60  50  40  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KAMA 170853
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
353 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CURRENTLY...THE MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES APPEARS
TO BE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

A MASSIVE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN ADVANCE OF ODILE...NOW CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. TRENDS IN VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF ODILE...NOW HEADING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO.

A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS DEPICTED BY NWP TO GENERALLY PERSIST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THUS ISOLATED /20 PERCENT/ GRIDDED
POPS WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL
FORCING/ASCENT TIED TO THE APPROACH OF THE EVOLVING REMNANTS OF
ODILE BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS IN EARNEST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS HAVE REMAINED IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUBSEQUENT RUNS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOWING
THE CORE REMNANTS OF ODILE TRANSLATING OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY AND 12Z SATURDAY. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES AS AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS
OVER THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS TOWARD 60-70
PERCENT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. 40 TO 60 PERCENT GRIDDED POPS WERE RETAINED
SATURDAY...WHEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGERING SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING FORCED AND ULTIMATELY DISPLACED SOUTH AND EASTWARD BY
A PASSING FRONT. WITH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
INCREASING...WIDESPREAD MEAN STORM TOTAL RAINFALL MAY RANGE FROM 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS DEPICTED BY WPC QPF. A FLOOD AND/OR
FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY DEVELOP AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ADDITIONALLY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE APPROACH
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS
FEATURE MAY PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

LINDLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                79  58  82  59  78 /  20  20  20  30  60
BEAVER OK                  92  63  91  64  84 /   5   5  10  10  40
BOISE CITY OK              88  58  84  60  79 /  10  10  10  20  60
BORGER TX                  86  65  86  65  77 /  10  10  20  20  60
BOYS RANCH TX              81  62  82  63  77 /  20  10  20  30  60
CANYON TX                  79  62  80  62  78 /  20  20  30  30  60
CLARENDON TX               82  64  83  63  80 /  20  20  20  30  60
DALHART TX                 87  60  84  62  80 /  10  10  20  30  60
GUYMON OK                  91  61  89  63  77 /  10   5  10  10  50
HEREFORD TX                78  61  79  62  79 /  20  20  30  40  60
LIPSCOMB TX                89  63  88  64  81 /  10   5  10  10  50
PAMPA TX                   83  61  83  61  77 /  10  10  20  20  50
SHAMROCK TX                87  64  87  63  79 /  10  10  20  20  50
WELLINGTON TX              85  67  85  66  80 /  20  20  20  20  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10






000
FXUS64 KAMA 170853
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
353 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CURRENTLY...THE MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES APPEARS
TO BE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

A MASSIVE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN ADVANCE OF ODILE...NOW CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. TRENDS IN VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF ODILE...NOW HEADING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO.

A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS DEPICTED BY NWP TO GENERALLY PERSIST IN SOME FORM OR FASHION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THUS ISOLATED /20 PERCENT/ GRIDDED
POPS WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 UNTIL
FORCING/ASCENT TIED TO THE APPROACH OF THE EVOLVING REMNANTS OF
ODILE BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS IN EARNEST
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS HAVE REMAINED IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUBSEQUENT RUNS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...SHOWING
THE CORE REMNANTS OF ODILE TRANSLATING OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12Z FRIDAY AND 12Z SATURDAY. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES AS AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS
OVER THE REGION. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS TOWARD 60-70
PERCENT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. 40 TO 60 PERCENT GRIDDED POPS WERE RETAINED
SATURDAY...WHEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGERING SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING FORCED AND ULTIMATELY DISPLACED SOUTH AND EASTWARD BY
A PASSING FRONT. WITH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
INCREASING...WIDESPREAD MEAN STORM TOTAL RAINFALL MAY RANGE FROM 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS DEPICTED BY WPC QPF. A FLOOD AND/OR
FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY DEVELOP AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ADDITIONALLY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE APPROACH
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS
FEATURE MAY PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

LINDLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                79  58  82  59  78 /  20  20  20  30  60
BEAVER OK                  92  63  91  64  84 /   5   5  10  10  40
BOISE CITY OK              88  58  84  60  79 /  10  10  10  20  60
BORGER TX                  86  65  86  65  77 /  10  10  20  20  60
BOYS RANCH TX              81  62  82  63  77 /  20  10  20  30  60
CANYON TX                  79  62  80  62  78 /  20  20  30  30  60
CLARENDON TX               82  64  83  63  80 /  20  20  20  30  60
DALHART TX                 87  60  84  62  80 /  10  10  20  30  60
GUYMON OK                  91  61  89  63  77 /  10   5  10  10  50
HEREFORD TX                78  61  79  62  79 /  20  20  30  40  60
LIPSCOMB TX                89  63  88  64  81 /  10   5  10  10  50
PAMPA TX                   83  61  83  61  77 /  10  10  20  20  50
SHAMROCK TX                87  64  87  63  79 /  10  10  20  20  50
WELLINGTON TX              85  67  85  66  80 /  20  20  20  20  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 170850
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 AM CDT Wed SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The forecast will continue to be warm and humid, with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Tropical Storm Odile,
which is currently slowly moving northeast across the Gulf of
California into northwest Mexico. Tropical moisture also continues
to move across Texas due to the storm. Shortwave trough energy will
move southeast across Texas today away from the storm. This energy,
combining with a very moist and unstable atmosphere will likely
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms again today. Models
agree that the track of this energy will be southeast across the Big
Country, so have the highest PoPs across areas generally north of a
Sterling City to Brownwood line, but have chance PoPs everywhere.
Overnight, will keep precipitation chances going, and have the best
chances indicated in our southeastern counties following the path of
shortwave trough energy. Some of these showers and storms could
produce heavy rainfall with moisture content much higher than normal
at this time, and considering that most of the activity will likely
have slow storm motions as well.

As far as temperatures go, have warmed highs today closer to what
we saw Tuesday as conditions will not be much different, and we
should see enough breaks in cloud cover to warm into the upper 80s
to near 90 degrees again today. Overnight lows will be around 70
degrees.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday into Tuesday)

Not much change to the prior forecast where remnants of Odile are
expected to move northeast across New Mexico on Thursday and into
the northern part of the Texas Panhandle on Friday. The forecast
area will be under a southwest flow aloft through Friday where
periodic disturbances will track over rich tropical moisture
complements of the remains Odile. Bands of showers and thunderstorms
are expected to move eastward into West Central Texas during this
period. Precipitable water amounts of nearly 2 inches will keep the
potential for locally heavy rainfall for the forecast area,
especially during the afternoon hours.

A cold front is still expected to move through the CWA on Sunday.
This will continue the possibility for localized flooding over West
Central Texas through Sunday night. Models are divergent Monday and
Tuesday with the GFS keeping rainfall in the forecast and the ECMWF
with drying conditions. Will keep the forecast dry for Monday and
Tuesday while awaiting future model runs.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  88  71  83  69  85 /  50  40  50  40  50
San Angelo  89  71  86  70  87 /  30  40  50  30  40
Junction  90  72  86  71  88 /  30  40  40  30  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KSJT 170850
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 AM CDT Wed SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The forecast will continue to be warm and humid, with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Tropical Storm Odile,
which is currently slowly moving northeast across the Gulf of
California into northwest Mexico. Tropical moisture also continues
to move across Texas due to the storm. Shortwave trough energy will
move southeast across Texas today away from the storm. This energy,
combining with a very moist and unstable atmosphere will likely
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms again today. Models
agree that the track of this energy will be southeast across the Big
Country, so have the highest PoPs across areas generally north of a
Sterling City to Brownwood line, but have chance PoPs everywhere.
Overnight, will keep precipitation chances going, and have the best
chances indicated in our southeastern counties following the path of
shortwave trough energy. Some of these showers and storms could
produce heavy rainfall with moisture content much higher than normal
at this time, and considering that most of the activity will likely
have slow storm motions as well.

As far as temperatures go, have warmed highs today closer to what
we saw Tuesday as conditions will not be much different, and we
should see enough breaks in cloud cover to warm into the upper 80s
to near 90 degrees again today. Overnight lows will be around 70
degrees.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday into Tuesday)

Not much change to the prior forecast where remnants of Odile are
expected to move northeast across New Mexico on Thursday and into
the northern part of the Texas Panhandle on Friday. The forecast
area will be under a southwest flow aloft through Friday where
periodic disturbances will track over rich tropical moisture
complements of the remains Odile. Bands of showers and thunderstorms
are expected to move eastward into West Central Texas during this
period. Precipitable water amounts of nearly 2 inches will keep the
potential for locally heavy rainfall for the forecast area,
especially during the afternoon hours.

A cold front is still expected to move through the CWA on Sunday.
This will continue the possibility for localized flooding over West
Central Texas through Sunday night. Models are divergent Monday and
Tuesday with the GFS keeping rainfall in the forecast and the ECMWF
with drying conditions. Will keep the forecast dry for Monday and
Tuesday while awaiting future model runs.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  88  71  83  69  85 /  50  40  50  40  50
San Angelo  89  71  86  70  87 /  30  40  50  30  40
Junction  90  72  86  71  88 /  30  40  40  30  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$











  [top]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 170839
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR AND SOUTH OF WACO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE...RICH MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND
AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY. WITHOUT A
DISCERNIBLE LARGER SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT IS HARD TO
JUSTIFY THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF LIKELY POPS FORECAST BY MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL SCALE
DOWN THE GUIDANCE POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH...BUT THE FORECAST
WILL STILL FEATURE 50 TO 60 POPS AROUND WACO AND TEMPLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
TRACKABLE AS A SLOW MOVING SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL
NM INTO CENTRAL TX AT 500 MB...WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEK...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN AREAS...SO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL TEND TO SHIFT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL AFFECT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1134 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
WITH VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT MOST OF THE TIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS 2-3 KFT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING 12-16Z...ESPECIALLY AT KACT.

WITH WARM MOIST AIR IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF KACT
TOMORROW MORNING AND LIFT OVER THE TAF SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR KACT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THE METROPLEX SITES WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VCSH ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY TERMINAL COULD SEE A BRIEF SHRA OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AT THE MOMENT. THIS MAY CHANGE IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  74  89  71  90 /  30  20  30  20  20
WACO, TX              90  72  87  70  90 /  50  40  50  30  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  88  68  88 /  20  20  20   5  10
DENTON, TX            91  72  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  71  88  68  88 /  20  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            91  74  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           90  72  87  69  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  72  87  69  89 /  40  40  50  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            89  72  86  70  88 /  60  40  50  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     89  70  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /09





000
FXUS64 KFWD 170839
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR AND SOUTH OF WACO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE...RICH MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND
AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY. WITHOUT A
DISCERNIBLE LARGER SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT IS HARD TO
JUSTIFY THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF LIKELY POPS FORECAST BY MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL SCALE
DOWN THE GUIDANCE POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH...BUT THE FORECAST
WILL STILL FEATURE 50 TO 60 POPS AROUND WACO AND TEMPLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
TRACKABLE AS A SLOW MOVING SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL
NM INTO CENTRAL TX AT 500 MB...WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEK...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN AREAS...SO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL TEND TO SHIFT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL AFFECT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1134 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
WITH VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT MOST OF THE TIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS 2-3 KFT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING 12-16Z...ESPECIALLY AT KACT.

WITH WARM MOIST AIR IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF KACT
TOMORROW MORNING AND LIFT OVER THE TAF SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR KACT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THE METROPLEX SITES WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VCSH ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY TERMINAL COULD SEE A BRIEF SHRA OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AT THE MOMENT. THIS MAY CHANGE IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  74  89  71  90 /  30  20  30  20  20
WACO, TX              90  72  87  70  90 /  50  40  50  30  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  88  68  88 /  20  20  20   5  10
DENTON, TX            91  72  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  71  88  68  88 /  20  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            91  74  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           90  72  87  69  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  72  87  69  89 /  40  40  50  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            89  72  86  70  88 /  60  40  50  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     89  70  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /09






000
FXUS64 KBRO 170834
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
334 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH PWAT HOVERING AROUND TWO INCHES. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF...WILL TEND TO STABILIZE WEATHER CONDITIONS HOWEVER...WITH A
SITUATION MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WHICH
COULD BE OF CONCERN TO AREAS WHICH RECENTLY RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SUCCEED IN DEVELOPING SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND INHIBITION IN THE SOUNDING...AND FEEL THAT TODAY MIGHT BE BETTER
FOR WESTWARD MVG SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAN TOMORROW...BUT ANOTHER
SEA BREEZE ROUND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING WITH
ODILE WILL STILL BE IN THE MIX. MID 70S WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH
A FEW MORE LOW CLDS DUE TO WINDS BACKING A BIT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW. LOOK FOR INCREASED LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK
CAP BUT STILL PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT TRENDED POPS DOWN JUST A WEE BIT...10 PERCENT HERE AND
THERE...BASED ON MORE STABILITY AND A LESSER SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPS BUT BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE
FROM THE BLEND BASED ON TUESDAY`S PERFORMANCE AND CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME SUN AGAIN TODAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL RETAIN RICH COLUMN MOISTURE WITH
850-700MB RH VALUES OVER 70 PERCENT. NORTHWESTERLY 300-500MB FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THAT LAYER OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT 20 TO 30 PCT
POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO 40 PCT VALLEY
WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 50 PCT OVER THE RANCHLANDS WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ENHANCING
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.0 TO 2.2
INCHES WILL POSITION ANY CELL THAT GETS GOING TO BE A VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCER...ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION AND COVERAGE SHOULD
PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FLOODING RISK...ASSUMING LIMITED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS DISRUPTS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 850 TO 700MB
MOISTURE TAP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ABOUT 10
TO 15 KNOT FLOW GOING. BOTH SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON WEAK WAVES
DEVELOPED BY CONVECTION OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN. THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE BASED ON HOW THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
BEHAVED THIS SEASON AND LEANED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
ECMWF...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST WELL. THIS CALLS
FOR LOW POPS IN THE MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 PCT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE
REMAIN IN MOIST 850-700MB SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO
REAL DISCERNIBLE WAVES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WENT WITH POP
PATTERN FAVORING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WORKING
INTO SEABREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH 30 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED ZONES...BASICALLY VALLEY WIDE SUNDAY
AND IN A RAYMONDVILLE/HEBBRONVILLE/FALFURRIAS TRIANGLE ON MONDAY
SURROUNDED BY 20 PCT POPS. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT
PERSISTENT 500MB SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY AND ULTIMATELY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
BY MAKING NEW UPDRAFTS FIGHT A MORE HOSTILE AIRMASS.

TUESDAY THE ECMWF PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGING OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH ULTIMATELY HELPS PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS A JET MAX INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM NEARLY DUE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WHICH BETTER AGREES WITH THE ONGOING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO LEAN IN A SLIGHT MAJORITY
TOWARDS THE MORE NORTHWESTWARD ORIENTED SPEED MAX WHICH LENDS
CREDIBILITY TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
STRONGER WITH RIDGING THAT RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
INTRODUCED 20/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONT. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.

WEDNESDAY THE GFS SENDS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH A 300MB WEST TEXAS TROUGH WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WHICH GENERATES A WEST TEXAS SFC CYCLONE
THAT RIDES OVER A STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HOLDS UP BETTER RUN TO RUN AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
STRENGTH OF THE 00Z GFS TROUGH WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST JUST
HOLDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A SHIFT THOUGH
TOWARDS A FINAL GFS SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN
RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH WEST
GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TWO TO FOUR FEET SEAS WILL PERSIST ON THE
GULF...WITH A LGT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE BAY. AN ISOLATED MARINE
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  90  79 /  40  20  40  20
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  91  78 /  40  20  40  20
HARLINGEN            92  78  93  77 /  40  20  40  20
MCALLEN              94  78  94  78 /  30  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      94  77  95  78 /  30  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  87  80 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68





000
FXUS64 KBRO 170834
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
334 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH PWAT HOVERING AROUND TWO INCHES. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF...WILL TEND TO STABILIZE WEATHER CONDITIONS HOWEVER...WITH A
SITUATION MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WHICH
COULD BE OF CONCERN TO AREAS WHICH RECENTLY RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SUCCEED IN DEVELOPING SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND INHIBITION IN THE SOUNDING...AND FEEL THAT TODAY MIGHT BE BETTER
FOR WESTWARD MVG SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAN TOMORROW...BUT ANOTHER
SEA BREEZE ROUND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING WITH
ODILE WILL STILL BE IN THE MIX. MID 70S WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH
A FEW MORE LOW CLDS DUE TO WINDS BACKING A BIT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW. LOOK FOR INCREASED LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK
CAP BUT STILL PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT TRENDED POPS DOWN JUST A WEE BIT...10 PERCENT HERE AND
THERE...BASED ON MORE STABILITY AND A LESSER SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPS BUT BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE
FROM THE BLEND BASED ON TUESDAY`S PERFORMANCE AND CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME SUN AGAIN TODAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL RETAIN RICH COLUMN MOISTURE WITH
850-700MB RH VALUES OVER 70 PERCENT. NORTHWESTERLY 300-500MB FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THAT LAYER OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT 20 TO 30 PCT
POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO 40 PCT VALLEY
WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 50 PCT OVER THE RANCHLANDS WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ENHANCING
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.0 TO 2.2
INCHES WILL POSITION ANY CELL THAT GETS GOING TO BE A VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCER...ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION AND COVERAGE SHOULD
PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FLOODING RISK...ASSUMING LIMITED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS DISRUPTS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 850 TO 700MB
MOISTURE TAP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ABOUT 10
TO 15 KNOT FLOW GOING. BOTH SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON WEAK WAVES
DEVELOPED BY CONVECTION OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN. THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE BASED ON HOW THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
BEHAVED THIS SEASON AND LEANED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
ECMWF...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST WELL. THIS CALLS
FOR LOW POPS IN THE MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 PCT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE
REMAIN IN MOIST 850-700MB SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO
REAL DISCERNIBLE WAVES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WENT WITH POP
PATTERN FAVORING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WORKING
INTO SEABREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH 30 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED ZONES...BASICALLY VALLEY WIDE SUNDAY
AND IN A RAYMONDVILLE/HEBBRONVILLE/FALFURRIAS TRIANGLE ON MONDAY
SURROUNDED BY 20 PCT POPS. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT
PERSISTENT 500MB SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY AND ULTIMATELY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
BY MAKING NEW UPDRAFTS FIGHT A MORE HOSTILE AIRMASS.

TUESDAY THE ECMWF PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGING OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH ULTIMATELY HELPS PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS A JET MAX INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM NEARLY DUE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WHICH BETTER AGREES WITH THE ONGOING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO LEAN IN A SLIGHT MAJORITY
TOWARDS THE MORE NORTHWESTWARD ORIENTED SPEED MAX WHICH LENDS
CREDIBILITY TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
STRONGER WITH RIDGING THAT RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
INTRODUCED 20/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONT. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.

WEDNESDAY THE GFS SENDS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH A 300MB WEST TEXAS TROUGH WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WHICH GENERATES A WEST TEXAS SFC CYCLONE
THAT RIDES OVER A STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HOLDS UP BETTER RUN TO RUN AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
STRENGTH OF THE 00Z GFS TROUGH WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST JUST
HOLDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A SHIFT THOUGH
TOWARDS A FINAL GFS SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN
RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH WEST
GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TWO TO FOUR FEET SEAS WILL PERSIST ON THE
GULF...WITH A LGT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE BAY. AN ISOLATED MARINE
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  90  79 /  40  20  40  20
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  91  78 /  40  20  40  20
HARLINGEN            92  78  93  77 /  40  20  40  20
MCALLEN              94  78  94  78 /  30  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      94  77  95  78 /  30  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  87  80 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68





000
FXUS64 KBRO 170834
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
334 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH PWAT HOVERING AROUND TWO INCHES. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF...WILL TEND TO STABILIZE WEATHER CONDITIONS HOWEVER...WITH A
SITUATION MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WHICH
COULD BE OF CONCERN TO AREAS WHICH RECENTLY RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SUCCEED IN DEVELOPING SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND INHIBITION IN THE SOUNDING...AND FEEL THAT TODAY MIGHT BE BETTER
FOR WESTWARD MVG SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAN TOMORROW...BUT ANOTHER
SEA BREEZE ROUND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING WITH
ODILE WILL STILL BE IN THE MIX. MID 70S WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH
A FEW MORE LOW CLDS DUE TO WINDS BACKING A BIT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW. LOOK FOR INCREASED LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK
CAP BUT STILL PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT TRENDED POPS DOWN JUST A WEE BIT...10 PERCENT HERE AND
THERE...BASED ON MORE STABILITY AND A LESSER SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPS BUT BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE
FROM THE BLEND BASED ON TUESDAY`S PERFORMANCE AND CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME SUN AGAIN TODAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL RETAIN RICH COLUMN MOISTURE WITH
850-700MB RH VALUES OVER 70 PERCENT. NORTHWESTERLY 300-500MB FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THAT LAYER OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT 20 TO 30 PCT
POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO 40 PCT VALLEY
WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 50 PCT OVER THE RANCHLANDS WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ENHANCING
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.0 TO 2.2
INCHES WILL POSITION ANY CELL THAT GETS GOING TO BE A VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCER...ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION AND COVERAGE SHOULD
PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FLOODING RISK...ASSUMING LIMITED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS DISRUPTS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 850 TO 700MB
MOISTURE TAP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ABOUT 10
TO 15 KNOT FLOW GOING. BOTH SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON WEAK WAVES
DEVELOPED BY CONVECTION OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN. THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE BASED ON HOW THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
BEHAVED THIS SEASON AND LEANED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
ECMWF...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST WELL. THIS CALLS
FOR LOW POPS IN THE MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 PCT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE
REMAIN IN MOIST 850-700MB SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO
REAL DISCERNIBLE WAVES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WENT WITH POP
PATTERN FAVORING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WORKING
INTO SEABREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH 30 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED ZONES...BASICALLY VALLEY WIDE SUNDAY
AND IN A RAYMONDVILLE/HEBBRONVILLE/FALFURRIAS TRIANGLE ON MONDAY
SURROUNDED BY 20 PCT POPS. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT
PERSISTENT 500MB SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY AND ULTIMATELY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
BY MAKING NEW UPDRAFTS FIGHT A MORE HOSTILE AIRMASS.

TUESDAY THE ECMWF PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGING OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH ULTIMATELY HELPS PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS A JET MAX INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM NEARLY DUE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WHICH BETTER AGREES WITH THE ONGOING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO LEAN IN A SLIGHT MAJORITY
TOWARDS THE MORE NORTHWESTWARD ORIENTED SPEED MAX WHICH LENDS
CREDIBILITY TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
STRONGER WITH RIDGING THAT RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
INTRODUCED 20/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONT. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.

WEDNESDAY THE GFS SENDS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH A 300MB WEST TEXAS TROUGH WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WHICH GENERATES A WEST TEXAS SFC CYCLONE
THAT RIDES OVER A STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HOLDS UP BETTER RUN TO RUN AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
STRENGTH OF THE 00Z GFS TROUGH WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST JUST
HOLDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A SHIFT THOUGH
TOWARDS A FINAL GFS SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN
RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH WEST
GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TWO TO FOUR FEET SEAS WILL PERSIST ON THE
GULF...WITH A LGT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE BAY. AN ISOLATED MARINE
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  90  79 /  40  20  40  20
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  91  78 /  40  20  40  20
HARLINGEN            92  78  93  77 /  40  20  40  20
MCALLEN              94  78  94  78 /  30  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      94  77  95  78 /  30  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  87  80 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68





000
FXUS64 KBRO 170834
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
334 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLUMN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...WITH PWAT HOVERING AROUND TWO INCHES. MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF...WILL TEND TO STABILIZE WEATHER CONDITIONS HOWEVER...WITH A
SITUATION MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. NONETHELESS...A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WHICH
COULD BE OF CONCERN TO AREAS WHICH RECENTLY RECEIVED A LOT OF RAIN.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SUCCEED IN DEVELOPING SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND INHIBITION IN THE SOUNDING...AND FEEL THAT TODAY MIGHT BE BETTER
FOR WESTWARD MVG SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAN TOMORROW...BUT ANOTHER
SEA BREEZE ROUND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING WITH
ODILE WILL STILL BE IN THE MIX. MID 70S WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH
A FEW MORE LOW CLDS DUE TO WINDS BACKING A BIT TO A MORE SOUTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW. LOOK FOR INCREASED LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK
CAP BUT STILL PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT TRENDED POPS DOWN JUST A WEE BIT...10 PERCENT HERE AND
THERE...BASED ON MORE STABILITY AND A LESSER SOURCE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPS BUT BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE
FROM THE BLEND BASED ON TUESDAY`S PERFORMANCE AND CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME SUN AGAIN TODAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL RETAIN RICH COLUMN MOISTURE WITH
850-700MB RH VALUES OVER 70 PERCENT. NORTHWESTERLY 300-500MB FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AS RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THAT LAYER OVER WEST/CENTRAL
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT 20 TO 30 PCT
POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING HOURS INCREASING TO 40 PCT VALLEY
WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 50 PCT OVER THE RANCHLANDS WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ENHANCING
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2.0 TO 2.2
INCHES WILL POSITION ANY CELL THAT GETS GOING TO BE A VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCER...ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION AND COVERAGE SHOULD
PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FLOODING RISK...ASSUMING LIMITED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THE GFS DISRUPTS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 850 TO 700MB
MOISTURE TAP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ABOUT 10
TO 15 KNOT FLOW GOING. BOTH SEEM TO BE KEYING IN ON WEAK WAVES
DEVELOPED BY CONVECTION OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN. THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE BASED ON HOW THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
BEHAVED THIS SEASON AND LEANED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
ECMWF...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST WELL. THIS CALLS
FOR LOW POPS IN THE MORNING PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 PCT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED. MID
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WE
REMAIN IN MOIST 850-700MB SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO
REAL DISCERNIBLE WAVES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WENT WITH POP
PATTERN FAVORING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WORKING
INTO SEABREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH 30 PCT POPS IN THE FAVORED ZONES...BASICALLY VALLEY WIDE SUNDAY
AND IN A RAYMONDVILLE/HEBBRONVILLE/FALFURRIAS TRIANGLE ON MONDAY
SURROUNDED BY 20 PCT POPS. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT
PERSISTENT 500MB SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY AND ULTIMATELY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
BY MAKING NEW UPDRAFTS FIGHT A MORE HOSTILE AIRMASS.

TUESDAY THE ECMWF PUSHES A FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
RIDGING OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH ULTIMATELY HELPS PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS A JET MAX INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FROM NEARLY DUE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED
WHICH BETTER AGREES WITH THE ONGOING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO LEAN IN A SLIGHT MAJORITY
TOWARDS THE MORE NORTHWESTWARD ORIENTED SPEED MAX WHICH LENDS
CREDIBILITY TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND
STRONGER WITH RIDGING THAT RESULTS IN THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH.
INTRODUCED 20/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
THE FRONT. THIS IS BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BUT RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.

WEDNESDAY THE GFS SENDS A FAIRLY ROBUST COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH A 300MB WEST TEXAS TROUGH WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WHICH GENERATES A WEST TEXAS SFC CYCLONE
THAT RIDES OVER A STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HOLDS UP BETTER RUN TO RUN AND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
STRENGTH OF THE 00Z GFS TROUGH WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST JUST
HOLDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A SHIFT THOUGH
TOWARDS A FINAL GFS SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN
RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH WEST
GULF WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TWO TO FOUR FEET SEAS WILL PERSIST ON THE
GULF...WITH A LGT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE BAY. AN ISOLATED MARINE
SHOWER MAY DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  90  79 /  40  20  40  20
BROWNSVILLE          91  78  91  78 /  40  20  40  20
HARLINGEN            92  78  93  77 /  40  20  40  20
MCALLEN              94  78  94  78 /  30  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      94  77  95  78 /  30  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  81  87  80 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68





000
FXUS64 KLUB 170757
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
OUR WEATHER WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ODILE WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.  BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONE THROUGH TEXAS THENCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHT ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD WANE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH FOCUSED MORE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.  IN FACT...THE NERN ZONES MAY STAY
DRY.  THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES ARE PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GET AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING WITH THESE CONDITIONS.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP
THE MENTION GOING NORTHEAST THROUGH WILL KEEP THE QPF MORE OR LESS
SILENT WHILE INCREASING POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE ACROSS FAR SWRN TEXAS/NERN OLD MEXICO IS AIDING IN
TRANSLATING TROPICAL STORM ODILE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE THIS NEWRD
TREK ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS SUCH...ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM ODILE
AND ALSO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED PWATS
RANGING BETWEEN 1.60-1.90 INCHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ODILE
EVOLVING TO LINGERING REMNANTS/A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIFT
NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION COMMENCING
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
ON THE RISE AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AN ALREADY PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL BEING A POSSIBILITY.
AS WAS SEEN TODAY...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE INITIALLY FAVORED TOMORROW...WITH
COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY...DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE UA DISTURBANCE.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION...AS IT IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE UA
DISTURBANCE...WHICH LEADS TO UL SUPPORT LACKING A BIT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE
THEREFORE TRENDED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS
WHICH REFLECT THE FOLLOWING: /1/ INCREASED POPS ON THE CAPROCK TO
LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY THUS TYING IN ON THE START OF THE UA
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.../2/ THE DISTURBANCE WILL
EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER A SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE CWA...AND HENCE PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH AN UA RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM ALOFT...AS EXHIBITED BY
TOP-DOWN DRYING PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS FOCUS WILL TURN TO YET ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP BY MID-WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH IN THIS
REGARD AS OPPOSED TO THE DRYER ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INSERTING MENTIONABLE POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT ATTM...AND AWAIT MODEL
RUN CONSISTENCY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S WHICH IS SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  60  78  60  77 /  30  30  30  50  60
TULIA         80  62  81  62  80 /  20  20  30  40  60
PLAINVIEW     78  63  80  62  80 /  20  30  30  40  60
LEVELLAND     75  63  77  62  78 /  50  40  40  50  60
LUBBOCK       78  64  79  65  79 /  40  30  40  50  60
DENVER CITY   78  64  76  63  80 /  70  50  50  50  60
BROWNFIELD    77  64  78  63  79 /  60  50  50  50  60
CHILDRESS     87  66  86  66  81 /  20  20  20  20  50
SPUR          80  66  82  65  81 /  30  30  30  40  50
ASPERMONT     82  68  84  68  84 /  30  30  30  40  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 170757
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
OUR WEATHER WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ODILE WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.  BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONE THROUGH TEXAS THENCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHT ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD WANE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH FOCUSED MORE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.  IN FACT...THE NERN ZONES MAY STAY
DRY.  THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES ARE PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GET AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING WITH THESE CONDITIONS.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP
THE MENTION GOING NORTHEAST THROUGH WILL KEEP THE QPF MORE OR LESS
SILENT WHILE INCREASING POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE ACROSS FAR SWRN TEXAS/NERN OLD MEXICO IS AIDING IN
TRANSLATING TROPICAL STORM ODILE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE THIS NEWRD
TREK ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS SUCH...ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM ODILE
AND ALSO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED PWATS
RANGING BETWEEN 1.60-1.90 INCHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ODILE
EVOLVING TO LINGERING REMNANTS/A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIFT
NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION COMMENCING
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
ON THE RISE AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AN ALREADY PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL BEING A POSSIBILITY.
AS WAS SEEN TODAY...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE INITIALLY FAVORED TOMORROW...WITH
COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY...DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE UA DISTURBANCE.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION...AS IT IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE UA
DISTURBANCE...WHICH LEADS TO UL SUPPORT LACKING A BIT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE
THEREFORE TRENDED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS
WHICH REFLECT THE FOLLOWING: /1/ INCREASED POPS ON THE CAPROCK TO
LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY THUS TYING IN ON THE START OF THE UA
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.../2/ THE DISTURBANCE WILL
EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER A SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE CWA...AND HENCE PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH AN UA RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM ALOFT...AS EXHIBITED BY
TOP-DOWN DRYING PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS FOCUS WILL TURN TO YET ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP BY MID-WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH IN THIS
REGARD AS OPPOSED TO THE DRYER ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INSERTING MENTIONABLE POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT ATTM...AND AWAIT MODEL
RUN CONSISTENCY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S WHICH IS SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  60  78  60  77 /  30  30  30  50  60
TULIA         80  62  81  62  80 /  20  20  30  40  60
PLAINVIEW     78  63  80  62  80 /  20  30  30  40  60
LEVELLAND     75  63  77  62  78 /  50  40  40  50  60
LUBBOCK       78  64  79  65  79 /  40  30  40  50  60
DENVER CITY   78  64  76  63  80 /  70  50  50  50  60
BROWNFIELD    77  64  78  63  79 /  60  50  50  50  60
CHILDRESS     87  66  86  66  81 /  20  20  20  20  50
SPUR          80  66  82  65  81 /  30  30  30  40  50
ASPERMONT     82  68  84  68  84 /  30  30  30  40  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 170757
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
OUR WEATHER WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ODILE WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.  BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONE THROUGH TEXAS THENCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHT ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD WANE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH FOCUSED MORE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.  IN FACT...THE NERN ZONES MAY STAY
DRY.  THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES ARE PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GET AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING WITH THESE CONDITIONS.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP
THE MENTION GOING NORTHEAST THROUGH WILL KEEP THE QPF MORE OR LESS
SILENT WHILE INCREASING POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE ACROSS FAR SWRN TEXAS/NERN OLD MEXICO IS AIDING IN
TRANSLATING TROPICAL STORM ODILE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE THIS NEWRD
TREK ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS SUCH...ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM ODILE
AND ALSO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED PWATS
RANGING BETWEEN 1.60-1.90 INCHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ODILE
EVOLVING TO LINGERING REMNANTS/A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIFT
NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION COMMENCING
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
ON THE RISE AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AN ALREADY PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL BEING A POSSIBILITY.
AS WAS SEEN TODAY...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE INITIALLY FAVORED TOMORROW...WITH
COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY...DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE UA DISTURBANCE.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION...AS IT IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE UA
DISTURBANCE...WHICH LEADS TO UL SUPPORT LACKING A BIT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE
THEREFORE TRENDED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS
WHICH REFLECT THE FOLLOWING: /1/ INCREASED POPS ON THE CAPROCK TO
LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY THUS TYING IN ON THE START OF THE UA
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.../2/ THE DISTURBANCE WILL
EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER A SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE CWA...AND HENCE PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH AN UA RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM ALOFT...AS EXHIBITED BY
TOP-DOWN DRYING PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS FOCUS WILL TURN TO YET ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP BY MID-WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH IN THIS
REGARD AS OPPOSED TO THE DRYER ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INSERTING MENTIONABLE POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT ATTM...AND AWAIT MODEL
RUN CONSISTENCY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S WHICH IS SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  60  78  60  77 /  30  30  30  50  60
TULIA         80  62  81  62  80 /  20  20  30  40  60
PLAINVIEW     78  63  80  62  80 /  20  30  30  40  60
LEVELLAND     75  63  77  62  78 /  50  40  40  50  60
LUBBOCK       78  64  79  65  79 /  40  30  40  50  60
DENVER CITY   78  64  76  63  80 /  70  50  50  50  60
BROWNFIELD    77  64  78  63  79 /  60  50  50  50  60
CHILDRESS     87  66  86  66  81 /  20  20  20  20  50
SPUR          80  66  82  65  81 /  30  30  30  40  50
ASPERMONT     82  68  84  68  84 /  30  30  30  40  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 170757
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
OUR WEATHER WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ODILE WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.  BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONE THROUGH TEXAS THENCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHT ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD WANE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH FOCUSED MORE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.  IN FACT...THE NERN ZONES MAY STAY
DRY.  THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES ARE PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GET AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING WITH THESE CONDITIONS.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP
THE MENTION GOING NORTHEAST THROUGH WILL KEEP THE QPF MORE OR LESS
SILENT WHILE INCREASING POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE ACROSS FAR SWRN TEXAS/NERN OLD MEXICO IS AIDING IN
TRANSLATING TROPICAL STORM ODILE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE THIS NEWRD
TREK ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS SUCH...ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM ODILE
AND ALSO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED PWATS
RANGING BETWEEN 1.60-1.90 INCHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ODILE
EVOLVING TO LINGERING REMNANTS/A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIFT
NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION COMMENCING
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
ON THE RISE AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AN ALREADY PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL BEING A POSSIBILITY.
AS WAS SEEN TODAY...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE INITIALLY FAVORED TOMORROW...WITH
COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY...DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE UA DISTURBANCE.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION...AS IT IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE UA
DISTURBANCE...WHICH LEADS TO UL SUPPORT LACKING A BIT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE
THEREFORE TRENDED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS
WHICH REFLECT THE FOLLOWING: /1/ INCREASED POPS ON THE CAPROCK TO
LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY THUS TYING IN ON THE START OF THE UA
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.../2/ THE DISTURBANCE WILL
EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER A SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE CWA...AND HENCE PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH AN UA RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM ALOFT...AS EXHIBITED BY
TOP-DOWN DRYING PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS FOCUS WILL TURN TO YET ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP BY MID-WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH IN THIS
REGARD AS OPPOSED TO THE DRYER ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INSERTING MENTIONABLE POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT ATTM...AND AWAIT MODEL
RUN CONSISTENCY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S WHICH IS SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  60  78  60  77 /  30  30  30  50  60
TULIA         80  62  81  62  80 /  20  20  30  40  60
PLAINVIEW     78  63  80  62  80 /  20  30  30  40  60
LEVELLAND     75  63  77  62  78 /  50  40  40  50  60
LUBBOCK       78  64  79  65  79 /  40  30  40  50  60
DENVER CITY   78  64  76  63  80 /  70  50  50  50  60
BROWNFIELD    77  64  78  63  79 /  60  50  50  50  60
CHILDRESS     87  66  86  66  81 /  20  20  20  20  50
SPUR          80  66  82  65  81 /  30  30  30  40  50
ASPERMONT     82  68  84  68  84 /  30  30  30  40  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/29





000
FXUS64 KCRP 170553 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS...HOWEVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
THE VCT AND LRD SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE...PROFILE SOUNDINGS ARE NOT A SATURATED SO AM EXPECTING
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY TEMPO MVFR DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND CEILINGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY MORNING...THEN MOVE INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST IN THE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  90  76  89  76  /  30  40  20  50  20
VICTORIA          75  90  75  89  75  /  30  50  30  50  20
LAREDO            78  93  78  95  77  /  30  30  20  30  20
ALICE             76  91  75  91  75  /  20  50  20  50  20
ROCKPORT          79  89  79  90  80  /  30  40  30  50  20
COTULLA           75  91  75  92  75  /  30  30  20  30  20
KINGSVILLE        77  91  76  90  76  /  20  50  20  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  80  90  80  /  30  40  20  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 170553 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS...HOWEVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
THE VCT AND LRD SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE...PROFILE SOUNDINGS ARE NOT A SATURATED SO AM EXPECTING
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY TEMPO MVFR DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND CEILINGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY MORNING...THEN MOVE INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST IN THE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  90  76  89  76  /  30  40  20  50  20
VICTORIA          75  90  75  89  75  /  30  50  30  50  20
LAREDO            78  93  78  95  77  /  30  30  20  30  20
ALICE             76  91  75  91  75  /  20  50  20  50  20
ROCKPORT          79  89  79  90  80  /  30  40  30  50  20
COTULLA           75  91  75  92  75  /  30  30  20  30  20
KINGSVILLE        77  91  76  90  76  /  20  50  20  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  80  90  80  /  30  40  20  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 170553 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS...HOWEVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
THE VCT AND LRD SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE...PROFILE SOUNDINGS ARE NOT A SATURATED SO AM EXPECTING
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY TEMPO MVFR DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND CEILINGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY MORNING...THEN MOVE INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST IN THE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  90  76  89  76  /  30  40  20  50  20
VICTORIA          75  90  75  89  75  /  30  50  30  50  20
LAREDO            78  93  78  95  77  /  30  30  20  30  20
ALICE             76  91  75  91  75  /  20  50  20  50  20
ROCKPORT          79  89  79  90  80  /  30  40  30  50  20
COTULLA           75  91  75  92  75  /  30  30  20  30  20
KINGSVILLE        77  91  76  90  76  /  20  50  20  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  80  90  80  /  30  40  20  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 170553 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS...HOWEVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
THE VCT AND LRD SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE...PROFILE SOUNDINGS ARE NOT A SATURATED SO AM EXPECTING
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY TEMPO MVFR DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AND CEILINGS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EARLY MORNING...THEN MOVE INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST IN THE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  90  76  89  76  /  30  40  20  50  20
VICTORIA          75  90  75  89  75  /  30  50  30  50  20
LAREDO            78  93  78  95  77  /  30  30  20  30  20
ALICE             76  91  75  91  75  /  20  50  20  50  20
ROCKPORT          79  89  79  90  80  /  30  40  30  50  20
COTULLA           75  91  75  92  75  /  30  30  20  30  20
KINGSVILLE        77  91  76  90  76  /  20  50  20  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  80  90  80  /  30  40  20  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KMAF 170535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect falling ceilings overnight with cigs becoming MVFR with some
IFR possible by 12z. Best shower/storm chances today will be at
CNM and HOB... and to a lesser extend INK and PEQ.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the increasing
potential of flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and
portions of west Texas through the end of the week. Rain chances
looking really good for the next several days as TS Odile,
currently moving north into the Desert SW, continues to provide
ample moisture eastward into the region.

Although the remnants of Odile will remain to the west of the CWA, a
series of upper level disturbances will break off and move east
over northern portions of the FA the next couple days. This will
provide enough upper forcing to help generate precipitation across
most areas (particularly the northwest) through at least
Thursday, especially given the available moisture across these
areas. The remnants of Odile is forecast to move NNE through
central NM Friday, continuing rain chances into Friday as well.
Well above normal PW (near 1.7 inches) look to persist across most
locations through Friday and heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern at times. Difficult to discern specific times when the
rain will be heaviest so went ahead and mentioned heavy rain
potential where PoPs are highest tonight-Thurs. May also need to
mention heavy rain possible for Friday as well but will only
mention moderate rainfall for now. Currently think the favored
regions to receive the most rainfall over the next few days is
southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains. Many of
these locations received heavy rainfall last week so any additional
rainfall will increase flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood
Watch will not be issued at this time but may be need to be in the
next 12 to 24 hours for these areas.

With nearly continuous moisture through the week, clouds look to
stick around and keep high temperatures below normal during this
time. On the other hand, the increased moisture and clouds will do
the opposite for lows, holding them above normal for this time of
year. Therefore, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian models bring a cold front into the region
Sunday with the ECMWF following suit much later and showing a much
weaker front. Precip is expected to develop across the region as the
front moves through but with the models not in agreement with the
arrival time, not confident when and where to place highest rain
chances. The 12Z Canadian and the previous run of the ECMWF had much
drier air coming in behind the front but the new 12Z run of the
ECMWF has now come more in line with the GFS, holding onto the
moisture and rain chances through the extended. Due to the
inconsistencies, will hold off on making any drastic changes to the
extended at this time and keep silent PoPs in days 7-8.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 170535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect falling ceilings overnight with cigs becoming MVFR with some
IFR possible by 12z. Best shower/storm chances today will be at
CNM and HOB... and to a lesser extend INK and PEQ.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the increasing
potential of flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and
portions of west Texas through the end of the week. Rain chances
looking really good for the next several days as TS Odile,
currently moving north into the Desert SW, continues to provide
ample moisture eastward into the region.

Although the remnants of Odile will remain to the west of the CWA, a
series of upper level disturbances will break off and move east
over northern portions of the FA the next couple days. This will
provide enough upper forcing to help generate precipitation across
most areas (particularly the northwest) through at least
Thursday, especially given the available moisture across these
areas. The remnants of Odile is forecast to move NNE through
central NM Friday, continuing rain chances into Friday as well.
Well above normal PW (near 1.7 inches) look to persist across most
locations through Friday and heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern at times. Difficult to discern specific times when the
rain will be heaviest so went ahead and mentioned heavy rain
potential where PoPs are highest tonight-Thurs. May also need to
mention heavy rain possible for Friday as well but will only
mention moderate rainfall for now. Currently think the favored
regions to receive the most rainfall over the next few days is
southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains. Many of
these locations received heavy rainfall last week so any additional
rainfall will increase flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood
Watch will not be issued at this time but may be need to be in the
next 12 to 24 hours for these areas.

With nearly continuous moisture through the week, clouds look to
stick around and keep high temperatures below normal during this
time. On the other hand, the increased moisture and clouds will do
the opposite for lows, holding them above normal for this time of
year. Therefore, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian models bring a cold front into the region
Sunday with the ECMWF following suit much later and showing a much
weaker front. Precip is expected to develop across the region as the
front moves through but with the models not in agreement with the
arrival time, not confident when and where to place highest rain
chances. The 12Z Canadian and the previous run of the ECMWF had much
drier air coming in behind the front but the new 12Z run of the
ECMWF has now come more in line with the GFS, holding onto the
moisture and rain chances through the extended. Due to the
inconsistencies, will hold off on making any drastic changes to the
extended at this time and keep silent PoPs in days 7-8.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 170535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect falling ceilings overnight with cigs becoming MVFR with some
IFR possible by 12z. Best shower/storm chances today will be at
CNM and HOB... and to a lesser extend INK and PEQ.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the increasing
potential of flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and
portions of west Texas through the end of the week. Rain chances
looking really good for the next several days as TS Odile,
currently moving north into the Desert SW, continues to provide
ample moisture eastward into the region.

Although the remnants of Odile will remain to the west of the CWA, a
series of upper level disturbances will break off and move east
over northern portions of the FA the next couple days. This will
provide enough upper forcing to help generate precipitation across
most areas (particularly the northwest) through at least
Thursday, especially given the available moisture across these
areas. The remnants of Odile is forecast to move NNE through
central NM Friday, continuing rain chances into Friday as well.
Well above normal PW (near 1.7 inches) look to persist across most
locations through Friday and heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern at times. Difficult to discern specific times when the
rain will be heaviest so went ahead and mentioned heavy rain
potential where PoPs are highest tonight-Thurs. May also need to
mention heavy rain possible for Friday as well but will only
mention moderate rainfall for now. Currently think the favored
regions to receive the most rainfall over the next few days is
southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains. Many of
these locations received heavy rainfall last week so any additional
rainfall will increase flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood
Watch will not be issued at this time but may be need to be in the
next 12 to 24 hours for these areas.

With nearly continuous moisture through the week, clouds look to
stick around and keep high temperatures below normal during this
time. On the other hand, the increased moisture and clouds will do
the opposite for lows, holding them above normal for this time of
year. Therefore, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian models bring a cold front into the region
Sunday with the ECMWF following suit much later and showing a much
weaker front. Precip is expected to develop across the region as the
front moves through but with the models not in agreement with the
arrival time, not confident when and where to place highest rain
chances. The 12Z Canadian and the previous run of the ECMWF had much
drier air coming in behind the front but the new 12Z run of the
ECMWF has now come more in line with the GFS, holding onto the
moisture and rain chances through the extended. Due to the
inconsistencies, will hold off on making any drastic changes to the
extended at this time and keep silent PoPs in days 7-8.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 170535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect falling ceilings overnight with cigs becoming MVFR with some
IFR possible by 12z. Best shower/storm chances today will be at
CNM and HOB... and to a lesser extend INK and PEQ.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the increasing
potential of flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and
portions of west Texas through the end of the week. Rain chances
looking really good for the next several days as TS Odile,
currently moving north into the Desert SW, continues to provide
ample moisture eastward into the region.

Although the remnants of Odile will remain to the west of the CWA, a
series of upper level disturbances will break off and move east
over northern portions of the FA the next couple days. This will
provide enough upper forcing to help generate precipitation across
most areas (particularly the northwest) through at least
Thursday, especially given the available moisture across these
areas. The remnants of Odile is forecast to move NNE through
central NM Friday, continuing rain chances into Friday as well.
Well above normal PW (near 1.7 inches) look to persist across most
locations through Friday and heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern at times. Difficult to discern specific times when the
rain will be heaviest so went ahead and mentioned heavy rain
potential where PoPs are highest tonight-Thurs. May also need to
mention heavy rain possible for Friday as well but will only
mention moderate rainfall for now. Currently think the favored
regions to receive the most rainfall over the next few days is
southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains. Many of
these locations received heavy rainfall last week so any additional
rainfall will increase flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood
Watch will not be issued at this time but may be need to be in the
next 12 to 24 hours for these areas.

With nearly continuous moisture through the week, clouds look to
stick around and keep high temperatures below normal during this
time. On the other hand, the increased moisture and clouds will do
the opposite for lows, holding them above normal for this time of
year. Therefore, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian models bring a cold front into the region
Sunday with the ECMWF following suit much later and showing a much
weaker front. Precip is expected to develop across the region as the
front moves through but with the models not in agreement with the
arrival time, not confident when and where to place highest rain
chances. The 12Z Canadian and the previous run of the ECMWF had much
drier air coming in behind the front but the new 12Z run of the
ECMWF has now come more in line with the GFS, holding onto the
moisture and rain chances through the extended. Due to the
inconsistencies, will hold off on making any drastic changes to the
extended at this time and keep silent PoPs in days 7-8.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 170527 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1227 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. RADAR IS QUIET TONIGHT WITH
NOT MANY LOW CLOUDS AND JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM
TS ODILE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH GROUND
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY BUT NOT OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
FOG TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS ABV 3 KFT BY LATE MORNING DUE
TO AMPLE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD
WILL HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ISOLD SHOWERS MAY STILL
DEVELOP TODAY...INCLUDING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...SINCE THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONV HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT CONVECTIVELY AROUND DEEP SOUTH TX. DESPITE THE
VERY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER HIDALGO AND CAMERON
COUNTIES DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. ALTHOUGH THINGS
ARE QUIET RIGHT NOW...IF MORE ORGANIZED CONV FORMS UP AND THREATENS
CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED. WILL BACK OFF ON THE RAIN CHCS
A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHTS FORECAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON CONV IS DYING OFF GRADUALLY WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER INTERACTION BETWEEN SOME OLD
BOUNDARIES IS MAINTAINING SOME SPOTTY CONV OVER NORTHERN KENEDY
COUNTY AND JUST SOUTH OF HIDALGO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONTINUING A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT AND MAY LINGER ON FOR ONE TO TWO
HOURS. AS THE SURFACE ASSOCIATE WITH TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED IN
OVER SOUTH TX YESTERDAY AND TODAY EXPECT THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGER
CONV TO SHIFT STEADILY NORTHWARDS AWAY FROM THE RGV. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW IS LOSING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE RGV THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
THE CONV THREAT TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT WITH LIKELY
LESS COVERAGE. SO WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF VCSH/TS AND PROB30
CONV GROUPS IN THE TAFS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY VFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WED MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND CAMERON AND HIDALGO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE MAIN WEST TO EAST
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPS
THE EXPECTED SEPTEMBER GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAWIDE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE PLACED WELL ENOUGH TO
DEFLECT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INSTEAD. LOCALLY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICTS. WITHOUT A DEFINITE
TRIGGER...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN RAGGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOWS IN THE WIDE RANGE OF MOS GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY /FROM 3 TO 43 PERCENT/. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL
STILL HAVE COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND WONT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE DIFFERING ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FRONT COULD REACH SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOW 90S THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...IMPEDED BY DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A RESULT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN LONGER RANGE
MARINE FORECAST AS DOMINANT SE FLOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
DECREASES SEEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOVER 3 TO
4 FEET...BEING AGITATED BY CONTINUED LOCALIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68






000
FXUS64 KBRO 170527 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1227 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. RADAR IS QUIET TONIGHT WITH
NOT MANY LOW CLOUDS AND JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM
TS ODILE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH GROUND
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY BUT NOT OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
FOG TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS ABV 3 KFT BY LATE MORNING DUE
TO AMPLE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD
WILL HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ISOLD SHOWERS MAY STILL
DEVELOP TODAY...INCLUDING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...SINCE THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONV HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT CONVECTIVELY AROUND DEEP SOUTH TX. DESPITE THE
VERY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER HIDALGO AND CAMERON
COUNTIES DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. ALTHOUGH THINGS
ARE QUIET RIGHT NOW...IF MORE ORGANIZED CONV FORMS UP AND THREATENS
CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED. WILL BACK OFF ON THE RAIN CHCS
A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHTS FORECAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON CONV IS DYING OFF GRADUALLY WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER INTERACTION BETWEEN SOME OLD
BOUNDARIES IS MAINTAINING SOME SPOTTY CONV OVER NORTHERN KENEDY
COUNTY AND JUST SOUTH OF HIDALGO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONTINUING A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT AND MAY LINGER ON FOR ONE TO TWO
HOURS. AS THE SURFACE ASSOCIATE WITH TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED IN
OVER SOUTH TX YESTERDAY AND TODAY EXPECT THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGER
CONV TO SHIFT STEADILY NORTHWARDS AWAY FROM THE RGV. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW IS LOSING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE RGV THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
THE CONV THREAT TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT WITH LIKELY
LESS COVERAGE. SO WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF VCSH/TS AND PROB30
CONV GROUPS IN THE TAFS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY VFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WED MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND CAMERON AND HIDALGO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE MAIN WEST TO EAST
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPS
THE EXPECTED SEPTEMBER GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAWIDE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE PLACED WELL ENOUGH TO
DEFLECT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INSTEAD. LOCALLY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICTS. WITHOUT A DEFINITE
TRIGGER...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN RAGGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOWS IN THE WIDE RANGE OF MOS GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY /FROM 3 TO 43 PERCENT/. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL
STILL HAVE COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND WONT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE DIFFERING ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FRONT COULD REACH SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOW 90S THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...IMPEDED BY DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A RESULT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN LONGER RANGE
MARINE FORECAST AS DOMINANT SE FLOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
DECREASES SEEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOVER 3 TO
4 FEET...BEING AGITATED BY CONTINUED LOCALIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68






000
FXUS64 KBRO 170527 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1227 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. RADAR IS QUIET TONIGHT WITH
NOT MANY LOW CLOUDS AND JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM
TS ODILE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH GROUND
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY BUT NOT OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
FOG TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS ABV 3 KFT BY LATE MORNING DUE
TO AMPLE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD
WILL HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ISOLD SHOWERS MAY STILL
DEVELOP TODAY...INCLUDING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...SINCE THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONV HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT CONVECTIVELY AROUND DEEP SOUTH TX. DESPITE THE
VERY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER HIDALGO AND CAMERON
COUNTIES DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. ALTHOUGH THINGS
ARE QUIET RIGHT NOW...IF MORE ORGANIZED CONV FORMS UP AND THREATENS
CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED. WILL BACK OFF ON THE RAIN CHCS
A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHTS FORECAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON CONV IS DYING OFF GRADUALLY WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER INTERACTION BETWEEN SOME OLD
BOUNDARIES IS MAINTAINING SOME SPOTTY CONV OVER NORTHERN KENEDY
COUNTY AND JUST SOUTH OF HIDALGO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONTINUING A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT AND MAY LINGER ON FOR ONE TO TWO
HOURS. AS THE SURFACE ASSOCIATE WITH TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED IN
OVER SOUTH TX YESTERDAY AND TODAY EXPECT THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGER
CONV TO SHIFT STEADILY NORTHWARDS AWAY FROM THE RGV. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW IS LOSING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE RGV THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
THE CONV THREAT TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT WITH LIKELY
LESS COVERAGE. SO WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF VCSH/TS AND PROB30
CONV GROUPS IN THE TAFS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY VFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WED MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND CAMERON AND HIDALGO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE MAIN WEST TO EAST
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPS
THE EXPECTED SEPTEMBER GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAWIDE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE PLACED WELL ENOUGH TO
DEFLECT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INSTEAD. LOCALLY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICTS. WITHOUT A DEFINITE
TRIGGER...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN RAGGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOWS IN THE WIDE RANGE OF MOS GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY /FROM 3 TO 43 PERCENT/. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL
STILL HAVE COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND WONT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE DIFFERING ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FRONT COULD REACH SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOW 90S THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...IMPEDED BY DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A RESULT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN LONGER RANGE
MARINE FORECAST AS DOMINANT SE FLOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
DECREASES SEEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOVER 3 TO
4 FEET...BEING AGITATED BY CONTINUED LOCALIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68






000
FXUS64 KBRO 170527 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1227 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. RADAR IS QUIET TONIGHT WITH
NOT MANY LOW CLOUDS AND JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM
TS ODILE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH GROUND
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY BUT NOT OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
FOG TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS ABV 3 KFT BY LATE MORNING DUE
TO AMPLE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD
WILL HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT ISOLD SHOWERS MAY STILL
DEVELOP TODAY...INCLUDING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...SINCE THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONV HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT CONVECTIVELY AROUND DEEP SOUTH TX. DESPITE THE
VERY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER HIDALGO AND CAMERON
COUNTIES DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. ALTHOUGH THINGS
ARE QUIET RIGHT NOW...IF MORE ORGANIZED CONV FORMS UP AND THREATENS
CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED. WILL BACK OFF ON THE RAIN CHCS
A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHTS FORECAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON CONV IS DYING OFF GRADUALLY WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER INTERACTION BETWEEN SOME OLD
BOUNDARIES IS MAINTAINING SOME SPOTTY CONV OVER NORTHERN KENEDY
COUNTY AND JUST SOUTH OF HIDALGO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONTINUING A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT AND MAY LINGER ON FOR ONE TO TWO
HOURS. AS THE SURFACE ASSOCIATE WITH TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED IN
OVER SOUTH TX YESTERDAY AND TODAY EXPECT THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGER
CONV TO SHIFT STEADILY NORTHWARDS AWAY FROM THE RGV. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW IS LOSING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE RGV THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
THE CONV THREAT TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT WITH LIKELY
LESS COVERAGE. SO WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF VCSH/TS AND PROB30
CONV GROUPS IN THE TAFS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY VFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WED MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND CAMERON AND HIDALGO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE MAIN WEST TO EAST
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPS
THE EXPECTED SEPTEMBER GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAWIDE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE PLACED WELL ENOUGH TO
DEFLECT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INSTEAD. LOCALLY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICTS. WITHOUT A DEFINITE
TRIGGER...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN RAGGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOWS IN THE WIDE RANGE OF MOS GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY /FROM 3 TO 43 PERCENT/. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL
STILL HAVE COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND WONT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE DIFFERING ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FRONT COULD REACH SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOW 90S THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...IMPEDED BY DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A RESULT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN LONGER RANGE
MARINE FORECAST AS DOMINANT SE FLOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
DECREASES SEEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOVER 3 TO
4 FEET...BEING AGITATED BY CONTINUED LOCALIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68






000
FXUS64 KAMA 170500 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1200 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO REASONING OR BASIC CONTENT OF FORECAST ISSUED SIX HOURS
AGO.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW CHANCE
FOR FOG POSSIBLE AT KAMA, AND EVEN LESS LIKELY AT KDHT/KGUY,
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 07Z TO 15Z BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE ANY THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD
STAY UP ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM HURRICANE
ODILE SHOULD BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MOULTON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A TREND TOWARDS AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS IN THE OFFING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK..DEPENDING ON
MODEL HANDLING.

THE MAIN CULPRIT WHICH WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED AND CARRIED NEWD THRU AZ...NM
AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT BASED ON PROGGED MODEL TIMING SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND
GFS. LINGERING SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AROUND SATURDAY. ECMWF
IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A
COMPROMISE.

IT APPEARS EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OFF SRN CA COAST WILL EJECT EWD AND NEWD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND MAY RESULT IN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE DURG THIS TIME PERIOD FOR THIS PCKG
DUE TO MODEL HANDLING DIFFERENCES.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/09






000
FXUS64 KEWX 170455
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 06Z TAFS/
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BOTH FROM ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. HEAVY RAINFALL
NEAR ABIA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS OR POSSIBLY
WORSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. MODEL PROJECTIONS
CONTINUE TO BE MORE AND MORE PESSEMISTIC FOR FOR THIS AREA
THURSDAY EVENING...SO WILL OPT FOR PREVAILING TSRA AND IFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR AS DIRE FOR SAT/SSF WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MORE INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS AND
STORM CHANCES. DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE RESERVED FOR DRT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AND NO MENTION OF TSRA IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
CHANCES COULD POTENTIALLY GO UP FOR DRT AND DOWN FOR AUS...BUT
WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE FINER MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWN TREND WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF GILLESPIE COUNTY.
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE ABIA VCNTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DECREASING...NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A MORE UNIFORM SELY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...AND THE CIRA SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS MORE
CONTINUOUS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ESCARPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
FORECASTS. LATER IN THE DAY...MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENTS ALONG I-35 SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE THE CHANCES AS PROB30
GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  40  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  30  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  30  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  40  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  30  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17







000
FXUS64 KEWX 170455
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 06Z TAFS/
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BOTH FROM ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. HEAVY RAINFALL
NEAR ABIA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS OR POSSIBLY
WORSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. MODEL PROJECTIONS
CONTINUE TO BE MORE AND MORE PESSEMISTIC FOR FOR THIS AREA
THURSDAY EVENING...SO WILL OPT FOR PREVAILING TSRA AND IFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR AS DIRE FOR SAT/SSF WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MORE INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS AND
STORM CHANCES. DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE RESERVED FOR DRT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AND NO MENTION OF TSRA IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
CHANCES COULD POTENTIALLY GO UP FOR DRT AND DOWN FOR AUS...BUT
WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE FINER MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWN TREND WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF GILLESPIE COUNTY.
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE ABIA VCNTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DECREASING...NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A MORE UNIFORM SELY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...AND THE CIRA SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS MORE
CONTINUOUS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ESCARPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
FORECASTS. LATER IN THE DAY...MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENTS ALONG I-35 SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE THE CHANCES AS PROB30
GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  40  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  30  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  30  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  40  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  30  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17







000
FXUS64 KEWX 170455
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 06Z TAFS/
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BOTH FROM ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. HEAVY RAINFALL
NEAR ABIA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS OR POSSIBLY
WORSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. MODEL PROJECTIONS
CONTINUE TO BE MORE AND MORE PESSEMISTIC FOR FOR THIS AREA
THURSDAY EVENING...SO WILL OPT FOR PREVAILING TSRA AND IFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR AS DIRE FOR SAT/SSF WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MORE INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS AND
STORM CHANCES. DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE RESERVED FOR DRT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AND NO MENTION OF TSRA IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
CHANCES COULD POTENTIALLY GO UP FOR DRT AND DOWN FOR AUS...BUT
WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE FINER MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWN TREND WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF GILLESPIE COUNTY.
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE ABIA VCNTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DECREASING...NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A MORE UNIFORM SELY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...AND THE CIRA SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS MORE
CONTINUOUS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ESCARPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
FORECASTS. LATER IN THE DAY...MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENTS ALONG I-35 SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE THE CHANCES AS PROB30
GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  40  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  30  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  30  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  40  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  30  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17







000
FXUS64 KEWX 170455
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1155 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 06Z TAFS/
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILL IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BOTH FROM ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. HEAVY RAINFALL
NEAR ABIA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS OR POSSIBLY
WORSE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. MODEL PROJECTIONS
CONTINUE TO BE MORE AND MORE PESSEMISTIC FOR FOR THIS AREA
THURSDAY EVENING...SO WILL OPT FOR PREVAILING TSRA AND IFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR AS DIRE FOR SAT/SSF WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AND MORE INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS AND
STORM CHANCES. DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE RESERVED FOR DRT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AND NO MENTION OF TSRA IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
CHANCES COULD POTENTIALLY GO UP FOR DRT AND DOWN FOR AUS...BUT
WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE FINER MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWN TREND WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF GILLESPIE COUNTY.
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE ABIA VCNTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DECREASING...NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A MORE UNIFORM SELY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...AND THE CIRA SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS MORE
CONTINUOUS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ESCARPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
FORECASTS. LATER IN THE DAY...MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENTS ALONG I-35 SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE THE CHANCES AS PROB30
GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  40  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  30  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  30  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  40  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  30  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17







000
FXUS64 KHGX 170448
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF REASONING. PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  89  75  86  72 /  40  60  30  60  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  88  74  86  73 /  30  60  30  60  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  86  79  85  78 /  40  60  40  60  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38



000
FXUS64 KHGX 170448
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1148 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF REASONING. PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT THREAT FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  89  75  86  72 /  40  60  30  60  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  88  74  86  73 /  30  60  30  60  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  86  79  85  78 /  40  60  40  60  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KFWD 170434 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1134 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
WITH VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT MOST OF THE TIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS 2-3 KFT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING 12-16Z...ESPECIALLY AT KACT.

WITH WARM MOIST AIR IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF KACT
TOMORROW MORNING AND LIFT OVER THE TAF SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR KACT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THE METROPLEX SITES WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VCSH ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY TERMINAL COULD SEE A BRIEF SHRA OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AT THE MOMENT. THIS MAY CHANGE IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...THUS HAVE LEFT SOME 30 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO ATHENS LINE WITH
TEENS AND 20S FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY STILL TROPICAL STORM
ODILE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GFS AND
NAM QPFS IS LOW AS THEY GENERATE SOME 5 INCH PLUS BOMBS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC...SO HAVE SHOWN THE
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT. 58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
WACO, TX              73  89  74  84  71 /  40  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             71  89  72  88  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  91  72  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  72  89  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
TERRELL, TX           74  90  74  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  90  73  87  71 /  20  30  40  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  73  83  70 /  40  50  40  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  89  71  89  68 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/





000
FXUS64 KSJT 170403
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1103 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

A few showers continue across parts of the area this evening, but
coverage should remain limited enough to not mention in the current
TAFs. Uncertainty remains in just how much stratus development we
will see during the early morning hours. Mid and upper level cloud
cover may serve to hinder the extent of the stratus. For now, the
current TAF forecast indicates MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT
between 09z and 11z, with VFR ceilings returning by mid morning
Wednesday. Confidence in timing of any showers and thunderstorms
that develop across the area Wednesday afternoon remains low, so any
mention of thunder was left out of the current TAF package. Winds
will remain light through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
Scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms, will continue this
evening. Most of this activity will be focused on the I-10
corridor, but has shown some northward propagation over the past
hour or so. Farther north, convection continue to weaken as it
moves into the Big Country, but light rainfall amounts are
anticipated during the overnight period. Chance PoPs were retained
tonight, raised to 40% across the southern counties where
convection is more widespread. RAP Mesoanalysis MUCAPE values
remain around 1000 J/kg across the south, so thunder was retained
south of a San Angelo to San Saba line. Only minor adjustments
were made to the wind/temp/dewpoint grids.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered showers this evening, will gradually decrease in
coverage shortly after 00z. Isolated showers will be possible
overnight, but coverage should remain limited enough to preclude a
mention in the current TAF package. Stratus development is
forecast between 11z and 12z at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT, resulting in
MVFR ceilings. VFR conditions will return to all sites by about
15z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be
possible Wednesday afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to
include a mention in the TAF package. Winds will remain light
through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT Tue SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

As of 3 PM...isolated to scattered showers have developed across
the area in an uncapped and weakly unstable airmass. Most of
this activity will diminish with the loss of heating after sunset
this evening. Tropical moisture will remain in place across West
Texas tonight through Wednesday as the remnants of Odile continue
to spread east across the area. Much like the past couple of
nights, a few showers will be possible during the overnight period
and will keep the inherited slight POPs intact.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on
Wednesday as embedded disturbances from the remnants of Odile
move across the area. Precipitable water values will remain high
(around 2 inches) and steering flow rather weak, so locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern with the strongest convection. Low
temperatures tonight will be around 70 degrees, with highs on
Wednesday in the mid and upper 80s

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night into Tuesday)

Remnants of Odile are expected to move northeast into the Texas
Panhandle Friday and Oklahoma Friday night/Saturday. Both the
GFS and EC develop several bands of showers eastward into West
Central Texas during this period. With a tropical atmosphere in
place and precipitable water amounts approaching 2 inches,
potential exists for locally heavy rainfall in bands that develop,
particularly during afternoon hours. Low level focus for
convection will be lacking, but a few areas could pick up 1 to 3
inches in slow moving storms.

A cold front moves through Sunday. Again, locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will be possible in tropical like
atmosphere. Computers solutions have slowed down front as it moves
into West Central Texas, with both the GFS and EC models
indicating rainfall continuing into Monday and Tuesday next week.
Will not put in rain chances in for Monday and Tuesday, but later
shifts will need to reevaluate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  86  69  83  69 /  30  40  50  50  40
San Angelo  70  86  71  86  71 /  30  40  50  50  30
Junction  72  85  72  86  72 /  40  40  50  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 170403
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1103 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

A few showers continue across parts of the area this evening, but
coverage should remain limited enough to not mention in the current
TAFs. Uncertainty remains in just how much stratus development we
will see during the early morning hours. Mid and upper level cloud
cover may serve to hinder the extent of the stratus. For now, the
current TAF forecast indicates MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT
between 09z and 11z, with VFR ceilings returning by mid morning
Wednesday. Confidence in timing of any showers and thunderstorms
that develop across the area Wednesday afternoon remains low, so any
mention of thunder was left out of the current TAF package. Winds
will remain light through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
Scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms, will continue this
evening. Most of this activity will be focused on the I-10
corridor, but has shown some northward propagation over the past
hour or so. Farther north, convection continue to weaken as it
moves into the Big Country, but light rainfall amounts are
anticipated during the overnight period. Chance PoPs were retained
tonight, raised to 40% across the southern counties where
convection is more widespread. RAP Mesoanalysis MUCAPE values
remain around 1000 J/kg across the south, so thunder was retained
south of a San Angelo to San Saba line. Only minor adjustments
were made to the wind/temp/dewpoint grids.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered showers this evening, will gradually decrease in
coverage shortly after 00z. Isolated showers will be possible
overnight, but coverage should remain limited enough to preclude a
mention in the current TAF package. Stratus development is
forecast between 11z and 12z at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT, resulting in
MVFR ceilings. VFR conditions will return to all sites by about
15z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be
possible Wednesday afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to
include a mention in the TAF package. Winds will remain light
through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT Tue SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

As of 3 PM...isolated to scattered showers have developed across
the area in an uncapped and weakly unstable airmass. Most of
this activity will diminish with the loss of heating after sunset
this evening. Tropical moisture will remain in place across West
Texas tonight through Wednesday as the remnants of Odile continue
to spread east across the area. Much like the past couple of
nights, a few showers will be possible during the overnight period
and will keep the inherited slight POPs intact.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on
Wednesday as embedded disturbances from the remnants of Odile
move across the area. Precipitable water values will remain high
(around 2 inches) and steering flow rather weak, so locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern with the strongest convection. Low
temperatures tonight will be around 70 degrees, with highs on
Wednesday in the mid and upper 80s

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night into Tuesday)

Remnants of Odile are expected to move northeast into the Texas
Panhandle Friday and Oklahoma Friday night/Saturday. Both the
GFS and EC develop several bands of showers eastward into West
Central Texas during this period. With a tropical atmosphere in
place and precipitable water amounts approaching 2 inches,
potential exists for locally heavy rainfall in bands that develop,
particularly during afternoon hours. Low level focus for
convection will be lacking, but a few areas could pick up 1 to 3
inches in slow moving storms.

A cold front moves through Sunday. Again, locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will be possible in tropical like
atmosphere. Computers solutions have slowed down front as it moves
into West Central Texas, with both the GFS and EC models
indicating rainfall continuing into Monday and Tuesday next week.
Will not put in rain chances in for Monday and Tuesday, but later
shifts will need to reevaluate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  86  69  83  69 /  30  40  50  50  40
San Angelo  70  86  71  86  71 /  30  40  50  50  30
Junction  72  85  72  86  72 /  40  40  50  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 170403
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1103 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

A few showers continue across parts of the area this evening, but
coverage should remain limited enough to not mention in the current
TAFs. Uncertainty remains in just how much stratus development we
will see during the early morning hours. Mid and upper level cloud
cover may serve to hinder the extent of the stratus. For now, the
current TAF forecast indicates MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT
between 09z and 11z, with VFR ceilings returning by mid morning
Wednesday. Confidence in timing of any showers and thunderstorms
that develop across the area Wednesday afternoon remains low, so any
mention of thunder was left out of the current TAF package. Winds
will remain light through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
Scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms, will continue this
evening. Most of this activity will be focused on the I-10
corridor, but has shown some northward propagation over the past
hour or so. Farther north, convection continue to weaken as it
moves into the Big Country, but light rainfall amounts are
anticipated during the overnight period. Chance PoPs were retained
tonight, raised to 40% across the southern counties where
convection is more widespread. RAP Mesoanalysis MUCAPE values
remain around 1000 J/kg across the south, so thunder was retained
south of a San Angelo to San Saba line. Only minor adjustments
were made to the wind/temp/dewpoint grids.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered showers this evening, will gradually decrease in
coverage shortly after 00z. Isolated showers will be possible
overnight, but coverage should remain limited enough to preclude a
mention in the current TAF package. Stratus development is
forecast between 11z and 12z at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT, resulting in
MVFR ceilings. VFR conditions will return to all sites by about
15z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be
possible Wednesday afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to
include a mention in the TAF package. Winds will remain light
through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT Tue SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

As of 3 PM...isolated to scattered showers have developed across
the area in an uncapped and weakly unstable airmass. Most of
this activity will diminish with the loss of heating after sunset
this evening. Tropical moisture will remain in place across West
Texas tonight through Wednesday as the remnants of Odile continue
to spread east across the area. Much like the past couple of
nights, a few showers will be possible during the overnight period
and will keep the inherited slight POPs intact.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on
Wednesday as embedded disturbances from the remnants of Odile
move across the area. Precipitable water values will remain high
(around 2 inches) and steering flow rather weak, so locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern with the strongest convection. Low
temperatures tonight will be around 70 degrees, with highs on
Wednesday in the mid and upper 80s

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night into Tuesday)

Remnants of Odile are expected to move northeast into the Texas
Panhandle Friday and Oklahoma Friday night/Saturday. Both the
GFS and EC develop several bands of showers eastward into West
Central Texas during this period. With a tropical atmosphere in
place and precipitable water amounts approaching 2 inches,
potential exists for locally heavy rainfall in bands that develop,
particularly during afternoon hours. Low level focus for
convection will be lacking, but a few areas could pick up 1 to 3
inches in slow moving storms.

A cold front moves through Sunday. Again, locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will be possible in tropical like
atmosphere. Computers solutions have slowed down front as it moves
into West Central Texas, with both the GFS and EC models
indicating rainfall continuing into Monday and Tuesday next week.
Will not put in rain chances in for Monday and Tuesday, but later
shifts will need to reevaluate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  86  69  83  69 /  30  40  50  50  40
San Angelo  70  86  71  86  71 /  30  40  50  50  30
Junction  72  85  72  86  72 /  40  40  50  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 170403
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1103 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

A few showers continue across parts of the area this evening, but
coverage should remain limited enough to not mention in the current
TAFs. Uncertainty remains in just how much stratus development we
will see during the early morning hours. Mid and upper level cloud
cover may serve to hinder the extent of the stratus. For now, the
current TAF forecast indicates MVFR ceilings at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT
between 09z and 11z, with VFR ceilings returning by mid morning
Wednesday. Confidence in timing of any showers and thunderstorms
that develop across the area Wednesday afternoon remains low, so any
mention of thunder was left out of the current TAF package. Winds
will remain light through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
Scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms, will continue this
evening. Most of this activity will be focused on the I-10
corridor, but has shown some northward propagation over the past
hour or so. Farther north, convection continue to weaken as it
moves into the Big Country, but light rainfall amounts are
anticipated during the overnight period. Chance PoPs were retained
tonight, raised to 40% across the southern counties where
convection is more widespread. RAP Mesoanalysis MUCAPE values
remain around 1000 J/kg across the south, so thunder was retained
south of a San Angelo to San Saba line. Only minor adjustments
were made to the wind/temp/dewpoint grids.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered showers this evening, will gradually decrease in
coverage shortly after 00z. Isolated showers will be possible
overnight, but coverage should remain limited enough to preclude a
mention in the current TAF package. Stratus development is
forecast between 11z and 12z at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT, resulting in
MVFR ceilings. VFR conditions will return to all sites by about
15z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be
possible Wednesday afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to
include a mention in the TAF package. Winds will remain light
through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT Tue SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

As of 3 PM...isolated to scattered showers have developed across
the area in an uncapped and weakly unstable airmass. Most of
this activity will diminish with the loss of heating after sunset
this evening. Tropical moisture will remain in place across West
Texas tonight through Wednesday as the remnants of Odile continue
to spread east across the area. Much like the past couple of
nights, a few showers will be possible during the overnight period
and will keep the inherited slight POPs intact.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on
Wednesday as embedded disturbances from the remnants of Odile
move across the area. Precipitable water values will remain high
(around 2 inches) and steering flow rather weak, so locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern with the strongest convection. Low
temperatures tonight will be around 70 degrees, with highs on
Wednesday in the mid and upper 80s

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night into Tuesday)

Remnants of Odile are expected to move northeast into the Texas
Panhandle Friday and Oklahoma Friday night/Saturday. Both the
GFS and EC develop several bands of showers eastward into West
Central Texas during this period. With a tropical atmosphere in
place and precipitable water amounts approaching 2 inches,
potential exists for locally heavy rainfall in bands that develop,
particularly during afternoon hours. Low level focus for
convection will be lacking, but a few areas could pick up 1 to 3
inches in slow moving storms.

A cold front moves through Sunday. Again, locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will be possible in tropical like
atmosphere. Computers solutions have slowed down front as it moves
into West Central Texas, with both the GFS and EC models
indicating rainfall continuing into Monday and Tuesday next week.
Will not put in rain chances in for Monday and Tuesday, but later
shifts will need to reevaluate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  86  69  83  69 /  30  40  50  50  40
San Angelo  70  86  71  86  71 /  30  40  50  50  30
Junction  72  85  72  86  72 /  40  40  50  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KHGX 170319
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1019 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AS IT PUSHED
INLAND TODAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY
THAT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS BUT ARE NOT
MAKING ANY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE COAST. TWEAKED POPS TO MATCH
LATEST OBS AND FORECAST TRENDS. WITH TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AND THUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
AS RAIN RATES COULD REACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR. THOSE KINDS OF RAIN
RATES WERE OBSERVED TODAY OVER HARRIS COUNTY WHERE FLOOD
ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR STREET FLOODING. TEMPS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED SOME FOR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. LOOKS LIKE
RESPECTABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S/LOW 90S.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS DECREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. FEW SHRA REDEVELOPING NEAR GLS THAT WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOK QUIET. OVERCAST UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO BEGIN BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  89  75  86  72 /  40  60  30  60  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  88  74  86  73 /  30  60  30  60  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  86  79  85  78 /  40  60  40  60  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39



000
FXUS64 KEWX 170253 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
953 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWN TREND WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF GILLESPIE COUNTY.
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE ABIA VCNTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DECREASING...NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A MORE UNIFORM SELY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...AND THE CIRA SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS MORE
CONTINUOUS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ESCARPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
FORECASTS. LATER IN THE DAY...MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENTS ALONG I-35 SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE THE CHANCES AS PROB30
GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  40  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  30  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  30  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  40  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  30  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 170253 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
953 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ON THE DOWN TREND WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF GILLESPIE COUNTY.
WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GOOD RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE ABIA VCNTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DECREASING...NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A MORE UNIFORM SELY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...AND THE CIRA SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS MORE
CONTINUOUS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ESCARPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
FORECASTS. LATER IN THE DAY...MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENTS ALONG I-35 SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE THE CHANCES AS PROB30
GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  40  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  30  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  30  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  30  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  30  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  40  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  30  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KSJT 170213
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
913 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
Scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms, will continue this
evening. Most of this activity will be focused on the I-10
corridor, but has shown some northward propagation over the past
hour or so. Farther north, convection continue to weaken as it
moves into the Big Country, but light rainfall amounts are
anticipated during the overnight period. Chance PoPs were retained
tonight, raised to 40% across the southern counties where
convection is more widespread. RAP Mesoanalysis MUCAPE values
remain around 1000 J/kg across the south, so thunder was retained
south of a San Angelo to San Saba line. Only minor adjustments
were made to the wind/temp/dewpoint grids.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered showers this evening, will gradually decrease in
coverage shortly after 00z. Isolated showers will be possible
overnight, but coverage should remain limited enough to preclude a
mention in the current TAF package. Stratus development is
forecast between 11z and 12z at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT, resulting in
MVFR ceilings. VFR conditions will return to all sites by about
15z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be
possible Wednesday afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to
include a mention in the TAF package. Winds will remain light
through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT Tue SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

As of 3 PM...isolated to scattered showers have developed across
the area in an uncapped and weakly unstable airmass. Most of
this activity will diminish with the loss of heating after sunset
this evening. Tropical moisture will remain in place across West
Texas tonight through Wednesday as the remnants of Odile continue
to spread east across the area. Much like the past couple of
nights, a few showers will be possible during the overnight period
and will keep the inherited slight POPs intact.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on
Wednesday as embedded disturbances from the remnants of Odile
move across the area. Precipitable water values will remain high
(around 2 inches) and steering flow rather weak, so locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern with the strongest convection. Low
temperatures tonight will be around 70 degrees, with highs on
Wednesday in the mid and upper 80s

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night into Tuesday)

Remnants of Odile are expected to move northeast into the Texas
Panhandle Friday and Oklahoma Friday night/Saturday. Both the
GFS and EC develop several bands of showers eastward into West
Central Texas during this period. With a tropical atmosphere in
place and precipitable water amounts approaching 2 inches,
potential exists for locally heavy rainfall in bands that develop,
particularly during afternoon hours. Low level focus for
convection will be lacking, but a few areas could pick up 1 to 3
inches in slow moving storms.

A cold front moves through Sunday. Again, locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will be possible in tropical like
atmosphere. Computers solutions have slowed down front as it moves
into West Central Texas, with both the GFS and EC models
indicating rainfall continuing into Monday and Tuesday next week.
Will not put in rain chances in for Monday and Tuesday, but later
shifts will need to reevaluate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  86  69  83  69 /  30  40  50  50  40
San Angelo  70  86  71  86  71 /  30  40  50  50  30
Junction  72  85  72  86  72 /  40  40  50  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25




000
FXUS64 KSJT 170213
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
913 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
Scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms, will continue this
evening. Most of this activity will be focused on the I-10
corridor, but has shown some northward propagation over the past
hour or so. Farther north, convection continue to weaken as it
moves into the Big Country, but light rainfall amounts are
anticipated during the overnight period. Chance PoPs were retained
tonight, raised to 40% across the southern counties where
convection is more widespread. RAP Mesoanalysis MUCAPE values
remain around 1000 J/kg across the south, so thunder was retained
south of a San Angelo to San Saba line. Only minor adjustments
were made to the wind/temp/dewpoint grids.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered showers this evening, will gradually decrease in
coverage shortly after 00z. Isolated showers will be possible
overnight, but coverage should remain limited enough to preclude a
mention in the current TAF package. Stratus development is
forecast between 11z and 12z at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT, resulting in
MVFR ceilings. VFR conditions will return to all sites by about
15z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be
possible Wednesday afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to
include a mention in the TAF package. Winds will remain light
through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT Tue SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

As of 3 PM...isolated to scattered showers have developed across
the area in an uncapped and weakly unstable airmass. Most of
this activity will diminish with the loss of heating after sunset
this evening. Tropical moisture will remain in place across West
Texas tonight through Wednesday as the remnants of Odile continue
to spread east across the area. Much like the past couple of
nights, a few showers will be possible during the overnight period
and will keep the inherited slight POPs intact.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on
Wednesday as embedded disturbances from the remnants of Odile
move across the area. Precipitable water values will remain high
(around 2 inches) and steering flow rather weak, so locally heavy
rainfall will be a concern with the strongest convection. Low
temperatures tonight will be around 70 degrees, with highs on
Wednesday in the mid and upper 80s

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night into Tuesday)

Remnants of Odile are expected to move northeast into the Texas
Panhandle Friday and Oklahoma Friday night/Saturday. Both the
GFS and EC develop several bands of showers eastward into West
Central Texas during this period. With a tropical atmosphere in
place and precipitable water amounts approaching 2 inches,
potential exists for locally heavy rainfall in bands that develop,
particularly during afternoon hours. Low level focus for
convection will be lacking, but a few areas could pick up 1 to 3
inches in slow moving storms.

A cold front moves through Sunday. Again, locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will be possible in tropical like
atmosphere. Computers solutions have slowed down front as it moves
into West Central Texas, with both the GFS and EC models
indicating rainfall continuing into Monday and Tuesday next week.
Will not put in rain chances in for Monday and Tuesday, but later
shifts will need to reevaluate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  86  69  83  69 /  30  40  50  50  40
San Angelo  70  86  71  86  71 /  30  40  50  50  30
Junction  72  85  72  86  72 /  40  40  50  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KBRO 170125 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
825 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...SINCE THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONV HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT CONVECTIVELY AROUND DEEP SOUTH TX. DESPITE THE
VERY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER HIDALGO AND CAMERON
COUNTIES DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. ALTHOUGH THINGS
ARE QUIET RIGHT NOW...IF MORE ORGANIZED CONV FORMS UP AND THREATENS
CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED. WILL BACK OFF ON THE RAIN CHCS
A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHTS FORECAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&



.AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON CONV IS DYING OFF GRADUALLY WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER INTERACTION BETWEEN SOME OLD
BOUNDARIES IS MAINTAINING SOME SPOTTY CONV OVER NORTHERN KENEDY
COUNTY AND JUST SOUTH OF HIDALGO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONTINUING A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT AND MAY LINGER ON FOR ONE TO TWO
HOURS. AS THE SURFACE ASSOCIATE WITH TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED IN
OVER SOUTH TX YESTERDAY AND TODAY EXPECT THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGER
CONV TO SHIFT STEADILY NORTHWARDS AWAY FROM THE RGV. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW IS LOSING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE RGV THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
THE CONV THREAT TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT WITH LIKELY
LESS COVERAGE. SO WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF VCSH/TS AND PROB30
CONV GROUPS IN THE TAFS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY VFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WED MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND CAMERON AND HIDALGO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE MAIN WEST TO EAST
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPS
THE EXPECTED SEPTEMBER GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAWIDE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE PLACED WELL ENOUGH TO
DEFLECT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INSTEAD. LOCALLY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICTS. WITHOUT A DEFINITE
TRIGGER...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN RAGGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOWS IN THE WIDE RANGE OF MOS GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY /FROM 3 TO 43 PERCENT/. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL
STILL HAVE COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND WONT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE DIFFERING ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FRONT COULD REACH SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOW 90S THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...IMPEDED BY DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A RESULT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN LONGER RANGE
MARINE FORECAST AS DOMINANT SE FLOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
DECREASES SEEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOVER 3 TO
4 FEET...BEING AGITATED BY CONTINUED LOCALIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 89 80 87 / 30 50 20 40
BROWNSVILLE         77 90 78 88 / 30 50 20 40
HARLINGEN           77 92 78 89 / 30 50 20 40
MCALLEN             77 93 78 91 / 30 40 20 30
RIO GRANDE CITY     76 94 77 92 / 30 40 20 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  80 87 81 85 / 30 50 20 30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...67
GRAPHICAS/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ





000
FXUS64 KBRO 170125 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
825 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...SINCE THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONV HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT CONVECTIVELY AROUND DEEP SOUTH TX. DESPITE THE
VERY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER HIDALGO AND CAMERON
COUNTIES DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. ALTHOUGH THINGS
ARE QUIET RIGHT NOW...IF MORE ORGANIZED CONV FORMS UP AND THREATENS
CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED. WILL BACK OFF ON THE RAIN CHCS
A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHTS FORECAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&



.AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON CONV IS DYING OFF GRADUALLY WITH THE
LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER INTERACTION BETWEEN SOME OLD
BOUNDARIES IS MAINTAINING SOME SPOTTY CONV OVER NORTHERN KENEDY
COUNTY AND JUST SOUTH OF HIDALGO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONTINUING A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT AND MAY LINGER ON FOR ONE TO TWO
HOURS. AS THE SURFACE ASSOCIATE WITH TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED IN
OVER SOUTH TX YESTERDAY AND TODAY EXPECT THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGER
CONV TO SHIFT STEADILY NORTHWARDS AWAY FROM THE RGV. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW IS LOSING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE RGV THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
THE CONV THREAT TO LINGER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT WITH LIKELY
LESS COVERAGE. SO WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF VCSH/TS AND PROB30
CONV GROUPS IN THE TAFS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY VFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WED MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND CAMERON AND HIDALGO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE MAIN WEST TO EAST
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPS
THE EXPECTED SEPTEMBER GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAWIDE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE PLACED WELL ENOUGH TO
DEFLECT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INSTEAD. LOCALLY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICTS. WITHOUT A DEFINITE
TRIGGER...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN RAGGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOWS IN THE WIDE RANGE OF MOS GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY /FROM 3 TO 43 PERCENT/. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL
STILL HAVE COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND WONT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE DIFFERING ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FRONT COULD REACH SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOW 90S THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...IMPEDED BY DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A RESULT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN LONGER RANGE
MARINE FORECAST AS DOMINANT SE FLOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
DECREASES SEEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOVER 3 TO
4 FEET...BEING AGITATED BY CONTINUED LOCALIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 89 80 87 / 30 50 20 40
BROWNSVILLE         77 90 78 88 / 30 50 20 40
HARLINGEN           77 92 78 89 / 30 50 20 40
MCALLEN             77 93 78 91 / 30 40 20 30
RIO GRANDE CITY     76 94 77 92 / 30 40 20 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  80 87 81 85 / 30 50 20 30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...67
GRAPHICAS/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KFWD 170025 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
658 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF NORTH TEXAS
WHILE MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS FORECAST. ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR SCT-BKN AOA
10000 FEET THIS EVENING AND ON WEDNESDAY. KACT MIGHT SEE BKN025
AFTER DAYBREAK AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO 13-16Z FOR MVFR CIGS. ALSO
WILL ADD VCSH TO KACT ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 7
KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY AFTERWARD. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...THUS HAVE LEFT SOME 30 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO ATHENS LINE WITH
TEENS AND 20S FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY STILL TROPICAL STORM
ODILE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GFS AND
NAM QPFS IS LOW AS THEY GENERATE SOME 5 INCH PLUS BOMBS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC...SO HAVE SHOWN THE
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
WACO, TX              73  89  74  84  71 /  30  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             71  89  72  88  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  91  72  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  72  89  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
TERRELL, TX           74  90  74  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  90  73  87  71 /  20  30  40  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  73  83  70 /  30  50  40  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  89  71  89  68 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/









000
FXUS64 KFWD 170025 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
658 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF NORTH TEXAS
WHILE MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS FORECAST. ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR SCT-BKN AOA
10000 FEET THIS EVENING AND ON WEDNESDAY. KACT MIGHT SEE BKN025
AFTER DAYBREAK AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO 13-16Z FOR MVFR CIGS. ALSO
WILL ADD VCSH TO KACT ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 7
KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY AFTERWARD. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...THUS HAVE LEFT SOME 30 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO ATHENS LINE WITH
TEENS AND 20S FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY STILL TROPICAL STORM
ODILE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GFS AND
NAM QPFS IS LOW AS THEY GENERATE SOME 5 INCH PLUS BOMBS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC...SO HAVE SHOWN THE
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
WACO, TX              73  89  74  84  71 /  30  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             71  89  72  88  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  91  72  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  72  89  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
TERRELL, TX           74  90  74  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  90  73  87  71 /  20  30  40  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  73  83  70 /  30  50  40  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  89  71  89  68 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/








000
FXUS64 KFWD 162358 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
658 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF NORTH TEXAS
WHILE MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS FORECAST. ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR SCT-BKN AOA
10000 FEET THIS EVENING AND ON TUESDAY. KACT MIGHT SEE BKN025
AFTER DAYBREAK AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO 13-16Z FOR MVFR CIGS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 7 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE SOUTHERLY AFTERWARD. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...THUS HAVE LEFT SOME 30 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO ATHENS LINE WITH
TEENS AND 20S FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY STILL TROPICAL STORM
ODILE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GFS AND
NAM QPFS IS LOW AS THEY GENERATE SOME 5 INCH PLUS BOMBS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC...SO HAVE SHOWN THE
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
WACO, TX              73  89  74  84  71 /  30  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             71  89  72  88  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  91  72  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  72  89  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
TERRELL, TX           74  90  74  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  90  73  87  71 /  20  30  40  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  73  83  70 /  30  50  40  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  89  71  89  68 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KFWD 162358 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
658 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF NORTH TEXAS
WHILE MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
DURING THIS FORECAST. ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR SCT-BKN AOA
10000 FEET THIS EVENING AND ON TUESDAY. KACT MIGHT SEE BKN025
AFTER DAYBREAK AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO 13-16Z FOR MVFR CIGS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 7 KNOTS AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE SOUTHERLY AFTERWARD. 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...THUS HAVE LEFT SOME 30 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO ATHENS LINE WITH
TEENS AND 20S FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY STILL TROPICAL STORM
ODILE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GFS AND
NAM QPFS IS LOW AS THEY GENERATE SOME 5 INCH PLUS BOMBS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC...SO HAVE SHOWN THE
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
WACO, TX              73  89  74  84  71 /  30  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             71  89  72  88  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  91  72  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  72  89  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
TERRELL, TX           74  90  74  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  90  73  87  71 /  20  30  40  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  73  83  70 /  30  50  40  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  89  71  89  68 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/





000
FXUS64 KLUB 162348 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. KLBB IS A DIFFERENT STORY. VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT
NOW WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING TOWARDS THE TERMINAL. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP CEILINGS VFR UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CEILING HEIGHTS DOWN INTO LOW MVFR RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING IS LOW ON
HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD AND WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
ANOTHER ROUND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SOME RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
DEFORMATION AXIS DRAPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRICT BOUNDARY BETWEEN DECENT SHOWER CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE AXIS AND LESSER THOUGH NOT ZERO CHANCES NORTH
ALTHOUGH PRECISE LOCATION AND WIDTH OF THE AXIS IS NOT VERY CLEAR.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTENSE ENOUGH...ON ORDER OF THIRD TO HALF INCH
OF RAIN IN 5-10 MINUTES...INTO THE EVENING FOR RISK OF AT LEAST
MINOR STREET FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AND HAVE ADDED MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. CLOUD SHIELD AND EXTRA DEWPOINTS
SHOULD KEEP MORE MILD MINIMUMS TONIGHT. MINOR CHANGES ALL-IN-ALL.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE THEME IN THE EXTENDED...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.

ABUNDANT AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS MOISTURE FROM ODILE
STREAMS AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND SQUARELY ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHILE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
FEEDS NORTHWARD AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE TRICK WILL BE TIMING THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS NOT A TRIVIAL TASK.
GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE NOT ATTEMPTED TO GET TOO CUTE AND CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA MAY BE MOST FAVORED FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A
MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS SITUATED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. MORE FOCUSED AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS WHAT REMAINS OF THE CENTER OF ODILE TRACKS PAST...THOUGH THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE ITS VORTICITY MAXIMUM JUST TO
OUR NORTH OF THE FA. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE EXPANDED AND INCREASED
POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT THEM JUST BELOW A
LIKELY MENTION AT THIS POINT. GIVEN ALL OF THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AND WE
HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE HWO.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE PASSING OF WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE ON
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES...THEN BRING
MODESTLY DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED
OFF ON THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL DRYING IT WAS SHOWING EARLIER...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE MID-LEVEL DRYING REGARDLESS. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH LOW RAIN CHANCES COULD PERSIST ON INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO RAISE POPS INTO MENTIONABLE LEVELS BEYOND
SUNDAY JUST YET...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
MUTED...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS AND BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS ON INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN HAND AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  60  78  61 /  20  20  30  30  40
TULIA         63  82  62  81  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     63  80  62  80  63 /  20  20  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     64  77  63  78  63 /  30  30  40  40  40
LUBBOCK       64  79  65  79  64 /  20  30  30  30  40
DENVER CITY   64  78  63  76  63 /  30  50  50  40  40
BROWNFIELD    65  79  64  78  64 /  30  40  40  40  40
CHILDRESS     68  88  67  86  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          67  83  66  83  65 /  20  30  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  86  69  84  68 /  30  30  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KEWX 162342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE ABIA VCNTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DECREASING...NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A MORE UNIFORM SELY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...AND THE CIRA SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS MORE
CONTINUOUS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ESCARPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
FORECASTS. LATER IN THE DAY...MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENTS ALONG I-35 SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE THE CHANCES AS PROB30
GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  20  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  20  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  20  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  20  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  20  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  20  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  30  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 162342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE ABIA VCNTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DECREASING...NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A MORE UNIFORM SELY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...AND THE CIRA SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS MORE
CONTINUOUS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ESCARPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
FORECASTS. LATER IN THE DAY...MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENTS ALONG I-35 SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE THE CHANCES AS PROB30
GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  20  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  20  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  20  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  20  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  20  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  20  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  30  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 162342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE ABIA VCNTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DECREASING...NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A MORE UNIFORM SELY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...AND THE CIRA SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS MORE
CONTINUOUS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ESCARPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
FORECASTS. LATER IN THE DAY...MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENTS ALONG I-35 SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE THE CHANCES AS PROB30
GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  20  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  20  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  20  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  20  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  20  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  20  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  30  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 162342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE ABIA VCNTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
OVERALL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DECREASING...NO TEMPO GROUPS ARE
MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A MORE UNIFORM SELY WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT...AND THE CIRA SIMULATED LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SUGGESTS MORE
CONTINUOUS MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ESCARPMENT LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
STREAMER SHOWERS AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND HIGHER RESOLUTION
FORECASTS. LATER IN THE DAY...MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENTS ALONG I-35 SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT...WILL LEAVE THE CHANCES AS PROB30
GROUPS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  20  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  20  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  20  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  20  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  20  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  20  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  30  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KHGX 162341
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
641 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS DECREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. FEW SHRA REDEVELOPING NEAR GLS THAT WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOK QUIET. OVERCAST UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO BEGIN BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  90  74  90  72 /  30  60  30  60  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  89  74  89  74 /  30  60  30  60  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  78 /  40  60  40  60  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KHGX 162341
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
641 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS DECREASING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. FEW SHRA REDEVELOPING NEAR GLS THAT WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED BUT OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOK QUIET. OVERCAST UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO BEGIN BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  90  74  90  72 /  30  60  30  60  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  89  74  89  74 /  30  60  30  60  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  78 /  40  60  40  60  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38



000
FXUS64 KMAF 162336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Current VFR conditions are expected to drop to MVFR again tonight
and possibly to IFR by 12Z. -SHRA is moving off to the east and we
should catch a break from the rain tonight with more showers
developing tomorrow. There may be some lightning but it will be
infrequent so will keep -SHRA in the TAFs for now and AMD to TSRA
as/if needed. All sites should return to VFR around 18Z Wed.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the increasing
potential of flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and
portions of west Texas through the end of the week. Rain chances
looking really good for the next several days as TS Odile,
currently moving north into the Desert SW, continues to provide
ample moisture eastward into the region.

Although the remnants of Odile will remain to the west of the CWA, a
series of upper level disturbances will break off and move east
over northern portions of the FA the next couple days. This will
provide enough upper forcing to help generate precipitation across
most areas (particularly the northwest) through at least
Thursday, especially given the available moisture across these
areas. The remnants of Odile is forecast to move NNE through
central NM Friday, continuing rain chances into Friday as well.
Well above normal PW (near 1.7 inches) look to persist across most
locations through Friday and heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern at times. Difficult to discern specific times when the
rain will be heaviest so went ahead and mentioned heavy rain
potential where PoPs are highest tonight-Thurs. May also need to
mention heavy rain possible for Friday as well but will only
mention moderate rainfall for now. Currently think the favored
regions to receive the most rainfall over the next few days is
southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains. Many of
these locations received heavy rainfall last week so any additional
rainfall will increase flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood
Watch will not be issued at this time but may be need to be in the
next 12 to 24 hours for these areas.

With nearly continuous moisture through the week, clouds look to
stick around and keep high temperatures below normal during this
time. On the other hand, the increased moisture and clouds will do
the opposite for lows, holding them above normal for this time of
year. Therefore, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian models bring a cold front into the region
Sunday with the ECMWF following suit much later and showing a much
weaker front. Precip is expected to develop across the region as the
front moves through but with the models not in agreement with the
arrival time, not confident when and where to place highest rain
chances. The 12Z Canadian and the previous run of the ECMWF had much
drier air coming in behind the front but the new 12Z run of the
ECMWF has now come more in line with the GFS, holding onto the
moisture and rain chances through the extended. Due to the
inconsistencies, will hold off on making any drastic changes to the
extended at this time and keep silent PoPs in days 7-8.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 162336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Current VFR conditions are expected to drop to MVFR again tonight
and possibly to IFR by 12Z. -SHRA is moving off to the east and we
should catch a break from the rain tonight with more showers
developing tomorrow. There may be some lightning but it will be
infrequent so will keep -SHRA in the TAFs for now and AMD to TSRA
as/if needed. All sites should return to VFR around 18Z Wed.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the increasing
potential of flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and
portions of west Texas through the end of the week. Rain chances
looking really good for the next several days as TS Odile,
currently moving north into the Desert SW, continues to provide
ample moisture eastward into the region.

Although the remnants of Odile will remain to the west of the CWA, a
series of upper level disturbances will break off and move east
over northern portions of the FA the next couple days. This will
provide enough upper forcing to help generate precipitation across
most areas (particularly the northwest) through at least
Thursday, especially given the available moisture across these
areas. The remnants of Odile is forecast to move NNE through
central NM Friday, continuing rain chances into Friday as well.
Well above normal PW (near 1.7 inches) look to persist across most
locations through Friday and heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern at times. Difficult to discern specific times when the
rain will be heaviest so went ahead and mentioned heavy rain
potential where PoPs are highest tonight-Thurs. May also need to
mention heavy rain possible for Friday as well but will only
mention moderate rainfall for now. Currently think the favored
regions to receive the most rainfall over the next few days is
southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains. Many of
these locations received heavy rainfall last week so any additional
rainfall will increase flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood
Watch will not be issued at this time but may be need to be in the
next 12 to 24 hours for these areas.

With nearly continuous moisture through the week, clouds look to
stick around and keep high temperatures below normal during this
time. On the other hand, the increased moisture and clouds will do
the opposite for lows, holding them above normal for this time of
year. Therefore, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian models bring a cold front into the region
Sunday with the ECMWF following suit much later and showing a much
weaker front. Precip is expected to develop across the region as the
front moves through but with the models not in agreement with the
arrival time, not confident when and where to place highest rain
chances. The 12Z Canadian and the previous run of the ECMWF had much
drier air coming in behind the front but the new 12Z run of the
ECMWF has now come more in line with the GFS, holding onto the
moisture and rain chances through the extended. Due to the
inconsistencies, will hold off on making any drastic changes to the
extended at this time and keep silent PoPs in days 7-8.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 162335
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS
S TX...HOWEVER ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
AM EXPECTING REDVLPMNT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING WITH
INCREASING ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WED. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
AROUND RESIDUAL CONVECTION. THEN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF S TX THEN LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO
LATE WED MORNING...BUT AT TIMES BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR DUE
TO CONVECTION THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
FROM THE S TO SE BUT VRB AND GUSTY AROUND CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE GFS PROG THE
WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION TNGT THEN SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SWD WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX.
LATEST MSAS DEPICTS THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS OVER THE CNTRL
CWA. THIS SYSTEM IS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
OWING TO SFC FORCING/MSTR/LOW CIN (NAM DETERMINISTIC.) EXPECT
LINGERING MSTR WEDNESDAY (NAM DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS) TO
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA (THE
SHORTWAVES MAY ALSO PROVIDE LIMITED FORCING)...THEN MAINLY OVER
THE CNTRL/WRN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...SIMILAR TO THIS AFTN. EXPECT
MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WED AROUND 100F OR LESS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BOTH
LOOK TO BE RATHER WET DAYS WITH DEEP MOISTURE (~2.2 PW VALUES) OVER
MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
THURS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SIMILARLY BE IN PLACE FRIDAY...WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS DUE TO H250 DIFLUENCE. THESE TWO DAYS SHOULD ALSO SEE A
NUMBER OF WEAK H500 SHORTWAVES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN H500 RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE H500 RIDGE WILL HAVE
MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH TEXAS DECREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID...DEEP MOISTURE WILL PW
STILL ~2 IN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY DESPITE THE
LACKLUSTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT SUNDAY OR MONDAY. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER
OR NOT THIS FRONT WILL EVEN MAKE INTO THE REGION OR WHETHER OR NOT A
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE
BIGGEST OUTLIER OF THE DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE MODELS IN THE
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. CMC DGEX AND
GFS ALL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH...WITH CMC SUGGESTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DGEX MONDAY MORNING...AND GFS STALLING IT OUT OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE SPLIT THE EXTREMES AND GONE
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FROM DAY 6 ONWARD. HAVE GONE WITH 30% POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER AS THE FRONT SCOURS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  89  78  90  76  /  40  50  30  40  20
VICTORIA          75  89  75  90  75  /  40  50  30  50  30
LAREDO            77  93  78  93  78  /  50  50  30  30  20
ALICE             76  91  76  91  75  /  30  50  20  50  20
ROCKPORT          78  87  79  89  79  /  40  50  30  40  30
COTULLA           75  91  75  91  75  /  50  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        76  91  77  91  76  /  40  50  20  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  87  80  90  80  /  40  50  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 162335
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS
S TX...HOWEVER ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
AM EXPECTING REDVLPMNT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING WITH
INCREASING ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WED. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
AROUND RESIDUAL CONVECTION. THEN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF S TX THEN LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO
LATE WED MORNING...BUT AT TIMES BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR DUE
TO CONVECTION THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
FROM THE S TO SE BUT VRB AND GUSTY AROUND CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE GFS PROG THE
WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION TNGT THEN SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SWD WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX.
LATEST MSAS DEPICTS THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS OVER THE CNTRL
CWA. THIS SYSTEM IS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
OWING TO SFC FORCING/MSTR/LOW CIN (NAM DETERMINISTIC.) EXPECT
LINGERING MSTR WEDNESDAY (NAM DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS) TO
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA (THE
SHORTWAVES MAY ALSO PROVIDE LIMITED FORCING)...THEN MAINLY OVER
THE CNTRL/WRN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...SIMILAR TO THIS AFTN. EXPECT
MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WED AROUND 100F OR LESS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BOTH
LOOK TO BE RATHER WET DAYS WITH DEEP MOISTURE (~2.2 PW VALUES) OVER
MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
THURS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SIMILARLY BE IN PLACE FRIDAY...WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS DUE TO H250 DIFLUENCE. THESE TWO DAYS SHOULD ALSO SEE A
NUMBER OF WEAK H500 SHORTWAVES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN H500 RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE H500 RIDGE WILL HAVE
MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH TEXAS DECREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID...DEEP MOISTURE WILL PW
STILL ~2 IN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY DESPITE THE
LACKLUSTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT SUNDAY OR MONDAY. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER
OR NOT THIS FRONT WILL EVEN MAKE INTO THE REGION OR WHETHER OR NOT A
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE
BIGGEST OUTLIER OF THE DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE MODELS IN THE
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. CMC DGEX AND
GFS ALL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH...WITH CMC SUGGESTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DGEX MONDAY MORNING...AND GFS STALLING IT OUT OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE SPLIT THE EXTREMES AND GONE
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FROM DAY 6 ONWARD. HAVE GONE WITH 30% POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER AS THE FRONT SCOURS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  89  78  90  76  /  40  50  30  40  20
VICTORIA          75  89  75  90  75  /  40  50  30  50  30
LAREDO            77  93  78  93  78  /  50  50  30  30  20
ALICE             76  91  76  91  75  /  30  50  20  50  20
ROCKPORT          78  87  79  89  79  /  40  50  30  40  30
COTULLA           75  91  75  91  75  /  50  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        76  91  77  91  76  /  40  50  20  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  87  80  90  80  /  40  50  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 162335
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS
S TX...HOWEVER ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
AM EXPECTING REDVLPMNT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING WITH
INCREASING ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WED. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
AROUND RESIDUAL CONVECTION. THEN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF S TX THEN LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO
LATE WED MORNING...BUT AT TIMES BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR DUE
TO CONVECTION THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
FROM THE S TO SE BUT VRB AND GUSTY AROUND CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE GFS PROG THE
WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION TNGT THEN SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SWD WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX.
LATEST MSAS DEPICTS THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS OVER THE CNTRL
CWA. THIS SYSTEM IS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
OWING TO SFC FORCING/MSTR/LOW CIN (NAM DETERMINISTIC.) EXPECT
LINGERING MSTR WEDNESDAY (NAM DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS) TO
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA (THE
SHORTWAVES MAY ALSO PROVIDE LIMITED FORCING)...THEN MAINLY OVER
THE CNTRL/WRN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...SIMILAR TO THIS AFTN. EXPECT
MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WED AROUND 100F OR LESS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BOTH
LOOK TO BE RATHER WET DAYS WITH DEEP MOISTURE (~2.2 PW VALUES) OVER
MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
THURS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SIMILARLY BE IN PLACE FRIDAY...WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS DUE TO H250 DIFLUENCE. THESE TWO DAYS SHOULD ALSO SEE A
NUMBER OF WEAK H500 SHORTWAVES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN H500 RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE H500 RIDGE WILL HAVE
MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH TEXAS DECREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID...DEEP MOISTURE WILL PW
STILL ~2 IN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY DESPITE THE
LACKLUSTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT SUNDAY OR MONDAY. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER
OR NOT THIS FRONT WILL EVEN MAKE INTO THE REGION OR WHETHER OR NOT A
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE
BIGGEST OUTLIER OF THE DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE MODELS IN THE
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. CMC DGEX AND
GFS ALL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH...WITH CMC SUGGESTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DGEX MONDAY MORNING...AND GFS STALLING IT OUT OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE SPLIT THE EXTREMES AND GONE
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FROM DAY 6 ONWARD. HAVE GONE WITH 30% POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER AS THE FRONT SCOURS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  89  78  90  76  /  40  50  30  40  20
VICTORIA          75  89  75  90  75  /  40  50  30  50  30
LAREDO            77  93  78  93  78  /  50  50  30  30  20
ALICE             76  91  76  91  75  /  30  50  20  50  20
ROCKPORT          78  87  79  89  79  /  40  50  30  40  30
COTULLA           75  91  75  91  75  /  50  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        76  91  77  91  76  /  40  50  20  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  87  80  90  80  /  40  50  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 162335
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF ACROSS
S TX...HOWEVER ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
AM EXPECTING REDVLPMNT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING WITH
INCREASING ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WED. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...EXCEPT FOR
AROUND RESIDUAL CONVECTION. THEN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF S TX THEN LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO
LATE WED MORNING...BUT AT TIMES BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR DUE
TO CONVECTION THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
FROM THE S TO SE BUT VRB AND GUSTY AROUND CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE GFS PROG THE
WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION TNGT THEN SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SWD WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX.
LATEST MSAS DEPICTS THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS OVER THE CNTRL
CWA. THIS SYSTEM IS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
OWING TO SFC FORCING/MSTR/LOW CIN (NAM DETERMINISTIC.) EXPECT
LINGERING MSTR WEDNESDAY (NAM DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS) TO
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA (THE
SHORTWAVES MAY ALSO PROVIDE LIMITED FORCING)...THEN MAINLY OVER
THE CNTRL/WRN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...SIMILAR TO THIS AFTN. EXPECT
MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WED AROUND 100F OR LESS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BOTH
LOOK TO BE RATHER WET DAYS WITH DEEP MOISTURE (~2.2 PW VALUES) OVER
MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
THURS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SIMILARLY BE IN PLACE FRIDAY...WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS DUE TO H250 DIFLUENCE. THESE TWO DAYS SHOULD ALSO SEE A
NUMBER OF WEAK H500 SHORTWAVES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN H500 RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE H500 RIDGE WILL HAVE
MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH TEXAS DECREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID...DEEP MOISTURE WILL PW
STILL ~2 IN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY DESPITE THE
LACKLUSTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT SUNDAY OR MONDAY. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER
OR NOT THIS FRONT WILL EVEN MAKE INTO THE REGION OR WHETHER OR NOT A
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE
BIGGEST OUTLIER OF THE DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE MODELS IN THE
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. CMC DGEX AND
GFS ALL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH...WITH CMC SUGGESTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DGEX MONDAY MORNING...AND GFS STALLING IT OUT OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE SPLIT THE EXTREMES AND GONE
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FROM DAY 6 ONWARD. HAVE GONE WITH 30% POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER AS THE FRONT SCOURS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  89  78  90  76  /  40  50  30  40  20
VICTORIA          75  89  75  90  75  /  40  50  30  50  30
LAREDO            77  93  78  93  78  /  50  50  30  30  20
ALICE             76  91  76  91  75  /  30  50  20  50  20
ROCKPORT          78  87  79  89  79  /  40  50  30  40  30
COTULLA           75  91  75  91  75  /  50  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        76  91  77  91  76  /  40  50  20  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  87  80  90  80  /  40  50  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KAMA 162321 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
621 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW CHANCE
FOR FOG POSSIBLE AT KAMA, AND EVEN LESS LIKELY AT KDHT/KGUY,
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 07Z TO 15Z BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE ANY THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD
STAY UP ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM HURRICANE
ODILE SHOULD BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A TREND TOWARDS AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS IN THE OFFING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK..DEPENDING ON
MODEL HANDLING.

THE MAIN CULPRIT WHICH WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED AND CARRIED NEWD THRU AZ...NM
AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT BASED ON PROGGED MODEL TIMING SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND
GFS. LINGERING SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AROUND SATURDAY. ECMWF
IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A
COMPROMISE.

IT APPEARS EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OFF SRN CA COAST WILL EJECT EWD AND NEWD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND MAY RESULT IN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE DURG THIS TIME PERIOD FOR THIS PCKG
DUE TO MODEL HANDLING DIFFERENCES.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 162321 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
621 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW CHANCE
FOR FOG POSSIBLE AT KAMA, AND EVEN LESS LIKELY AT KDHT/KGUY,
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 07Z TO 15Z BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE ANY THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD
STAY UP ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM HURRICANE
ODILE SHOULD BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A TREND TOWARDS AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS IN THE OFFING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK..DEPENDING ON
MODEL HANDLING.

THE MAIN CULPRIT WHICH WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED AND CARRIED NEWD THRU AZ...NM
AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT BASED ON PROGGED MODEL TIMING SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND
GFS. LINGERING SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AROUND SATURDAY. ECMWF
IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A
COMPROMISE.

IT APPEARS EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OFF SRN CA COAST WILL EJECT EWD AND NEWD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND MAY RESULT IN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE DURG THIS TIME PERIOD FOR THIS PCKG
DUE TO MODEL HANDLING DIFFERENCES.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/09






000
FXUS64 KSJT 162314
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
614 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered showers this evening, will gradually decrease in coverage
shortly after 00z. Isolated showers will be possible overnight, but
coverage should remain limited enough to preclude a mention in the
current TAF package. Stratus development is forecast between 11z and
12z at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT, resulting in MVFR ceilings. VFR
conditions will return to all sites by about 15z. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will once again be possible Wednesday afternoon,
but confidence is not high enough to include a mention in the TAF
package. Winds will remain light through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT Tue SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

As of 3 PM...isolated to scattered showers have developed across
the area in an uncapped and weakly unstable airmass. Most of this
activity will diminish with the loss of heating after sunset this
evening. Tropical moisture will remain in place across West Texas
tonight through Wednesday as the remnants of Odile continue to
spread east across the area. Much like the past couple of nights,
a few showers will be possible during the overnight period and will
keep the inherited slight POPs intact.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Wednesday
as embedded disturbances from the remnants of Odile move across the
area. Precipitable water values will remain high (around 2 inches)
and steering flow rather weak, so locally heavy rainfall will be a
concern with the strongest convection. Low temperatures tonight will
be around 70 degrees, with highs on Wednesday in the mid and upper
80s

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night into Tuesday)

Remnants of Odile are expected to move northeast into the Texas
Panhandle Friday and Oklahoma Friday night/Saturday. Both the GFS
and EC develop several bands of showers eastward into West
Central Texas during this period. With a tropical atmosphere in
place and precipitable water amounts approaching 2 inches,
potential exists for locally heavy rainfall in bands that
develop, particularly during afternoon hours. Low level focus for
convection will be lacking, but a few areas could pick up 1 to 3
inches in slow moving storms.

A cold front moves through Sunday. Again, locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will be possible in tropical like
atmosphere. Computers solutions have slowed down front as it moves
into West Central Texas, with both the GFS and EC models indicating
rainfall continuing into Monday and Tuesday next week. Will not put
in rain chances in for Monday and Tuesday, but later shifts will
need to reevaluate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  86  69  83  69 /  30  40  50  50  40
San Angelo  70  86  71  86  71 /  20  40  50  50  30
Junction  72  85  72  86  72 /  30  40  50  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 162314
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
614 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered showers this evening, will gradually decrease in coverage
shortly after 00z. Isolated showers will be possible overnight, but
coverage should remain limited enough to preclude a mention in the
current TAF package. Stratus development is forecast between 11z and
12z at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT, resulting in MVFR ceilings. VFR
conditions will return to all sites by about 15z. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will once again be possible Wednesday afternoon,
but confidence is not high enough to include a mention in the TAF
package. Winds will remain light through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT Tue SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

As of 3 PM...isolated to scattered showers have developed across
the area in an uncapped and weakly unstable airmass. Most of this
activity will diminish with the loss of heating after sunset this
evening. Tropical moisture will remain in place across West Texas
tonight through Wednesday as the remnants of Odile continue to
spread east across the area. Much like the past couple of nights,
a few showers will be possible during the overnight period and will
keep the inherited slight POPs intact.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Wednesday
as embedded disturbances from the remnants of Odile move across the
area. Precipitable water values will remain high (around 2 inches)
and steering flow rather weak, so locally heavy rainfall will be a
concern with the strongest convection. Low temperatures tonight will
be around 70 degrees, with highs on Wednesday in the mid and upper
80s

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night into Tuesday)

Remnants of Odile are expected to move northeast into the Texas
Panhandle Friday and Oklahoma Friday night/Saturday. Both the GFS
and EC develop several bands of showers eastward into West
Central Texas during this period. With a tropical atmosphere in
place and precipitable water amounts approaching 2 inches,
potential exists for locally heavy rainfall in bands that
develop, particularly during afternoon hours. Low level focus for
convection will be lacking, but a few areas could pick up 1 to 3
inches in slow moving storms.

A cold front moves through Sunday. Again, locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will be possible in tropical like
atmosphere. Computers solutions have slowed down front as it moves
into West Central Texas, with both the GFS and EC models indicating
rainfall continuing into Monday and Tuesday next week. Will not put
in rain chances in for Monday and Tuesday, but later shifts will
need to reevaluate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  86  69  83  69 /  30  40  50  50  40
San Angelo  70  86  71  86  71 /  20  40  50  50  30
Junction  72  85  72  86  72 /  30  40  50  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 162314
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
614 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered showers this evening, will gradually decrease in coverage
shortly after 00z. Isolated showers will be possible overnight, but
coverage should remain limited enough to preclude a mention in the
current TAF package. Stratus development is forecast between 11z and
12z at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT, resulting in MVFR ceilings. VFR
conditions will return to all sites by about 15z. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will once again be possible Wednesday afternoon,
but confidence is not high enough to include a mention in the TAF
package. Winds will remain light through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT Tue SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

As of 3 PM...isolated to scattered showers have developed across
the area in an uncapped and weakly unstable airmass. Most of this
activity will diminish with the loss of heating after sunset this
evening. Tropical moisture will remain in place across West Texas
tonight through Wednesday as the remnants of Odile continue to
spread east across the area. Much like the past couple of nights,
a few showers will be possible during the overnight period and will
keep the inherited slight POPs intact.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Wednesday
as embedded disturbances from the remnants of Odile move across the
area. Precipitable water values will remain high (around 2 inches)
and steering flow rather weak, so locally heavy rainfall will be a
concern with the strongest convection. Low temperatures tonight will
be around 70 degrees, with highs on Wednesday in the mid and upper
80s

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night into Tuesday)

Remnants of Odile are expected to move northeast into the Texas
Panhandle Friday and Oklahoma Friday night/Saturday. Both the GFS
and EC develop several bands of showers eastward into West
Central Texas during this period. With a tropical atmosphere in
place and precipitable water amounts approaching 2 inches,
potential exists for locally heavy rainfall in bands that
develop, particularly during afternoon hours. Low level focus for
convection will be lacking, but a few areas could pick up 1 to 3
inches in slow moving storms.

A cold front moves through Sunday. Again, locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will be possible in tropical like
atmosphere. Computers solutions have slowed down front as it moves
into West Central Texas, with both the GFS and EC models indicating
rainfall continuing into Monday and Tuesday next week. Will not put
in rain chances in for Monday and Tuesday, but later shifts will
need to reevaluate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  86  69  83  69 /  30  40  50  50  40
San Angelo  70  86  71  86  71 /  20  40  50  50  30
Junction  72  85  72  86  72 /  30  40  50  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 162314
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
614 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered showers this evening, will gradually decrease in coverage
shortly after 00z. Isolated showers will be possible overnight, but
coverage should remain limited enough to preclude a mention in the
current TAF package. Stratus development is forecast between 11z and
12z at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT, resulting in MVFR ceilings. VFR
conditions will return to all sites by about 15z. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will once again be possible Wednesday afternoon,
but confidence is not high enough to include a mention in the TAF
package. Winds will remain light through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT Tue SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

As of 3 PM...isolated to scattered showers have developed across
the area in an uncapped and weakly unstable airmass. Most of this
activity will diminish with the loss of heating after sunset this
evening. Tropical moisture will remain in place across West Texas
tonight through Wednesday as the remnants of Odile continue to
spread east across the area. Much like the past couple of nights,
a few showers will be possible during the overnight period and will
keep the inherited slight POPs intact.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Wednesday
as embedded disturbances from the remnants of Odile move across the
area. Precipitable water values will remain high (around 2 inches)
and steering flow rather weak, so locally heavy rainfall will be a
concern with the strongest convection. Low temperatures tonight will
be around 70 degrees, with highs on Wednesday in the mid and upper
80s

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night into Tuesday)

Remnants of Odile are expected to move northeast into the Texas
Panhandle Friday and Oklahoma Friday night/Saturday. Both the GFS
and EC develop several bands of showers eastward into West
Central Texas during this period. With a tropical atmosphere in
place and precipitable water amounts approaching 2 inches,
potential exists for locally heavy rainfall in bands that
develop, particularly during afternoon hours. Low level focus for
convection will be lacking, but a few areas could pick up 1 to 3
inches in slow moving storms.

A cold front moves through Sunday. Again, locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will be possible in tropical like
atmosphere. Computers solutions have slowed down front as it moves
into West Central Texas, with both the GFS and EC models indicating
rainfall continuing into Monday and Tuesday next week. Will not put
in rain chances in for Monday and Tuesday, but later shifts will
need to reevaluate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  86  69  83  69 /  30  40  50  50  40
San Angelo  70  86  71  86  71 /  20  40  50  50  30
Junction  72  85  72  86  72 /  30  40  50  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KAMA 162154
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
454 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TREND TOWARDS AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS IN THE OFFING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK..DEPENDING ON
MODEL HANDLING.

THE MAIN CULPRIT WHICH WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED AND CARRIED NEWD THRU AZ...NM
AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT BASED ON PROGGED MODEL TIMING SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND
GFS. LINGERING SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AROUND SATURDAY. ECMWF
IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A
COMPROMISE.

IT APPEARS EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OFF SRN CA COAST WILL EJECT EWD AND NEWD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND MAY RESULT IN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE DURG THIS TIME PERIOD FOR THIS PCKG
DUE TO MODEL HANDLING DIFFERENCES.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  83  62  81  60 /  10  20  20  20  30
BEAVER OK                  63  90  64  90  64 /   0   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              58  88  59  84  58 /   5  10  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  65  87  66  85  63 /   5  10  10  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              60  84  61  82  60 /   5  20  10  20  30
CANYON TX                  61  83  61  81  60 /  10  20  20  20  30
CLARENDON TX               63  85  64  83  63 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 57  84  60  82  59 /   5  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  61  90  62  89  62 /   5  10   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                60  82  60  80  60 /  10  20  20  30  40
LIPSCOMB TX                64  89  64  87  64 /   5  10   5  10  10
PAMPA TX                   63  86  63  84  63 /   5  10  10  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                65  86  64  85  65 /   5  10  10  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              66  86  65  85  65 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 162154
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
454 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TREND TOWARDS AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS IN THE OFFING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK..DEPENDING ON
MODEL HANDLING.

THE MAIN CULPRIT WHICH WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED AND CARRIED NEWD THRU AZ...NM
AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT BASED ON PROGGED MODEL TIMING SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND
GFS. LINGERING SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AROUND SATURDAY. ECMWF
IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A
COMPROMISE.

IT APPEARS EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OFF SRN CA COAST WILL EJECT EWD AND NEWD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND MAY RESULT IN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE DURG THIS TIME PERIOD FOR THIS PCKG
DUE TO MODEL HANDLING DIFFERENCES.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  83  62  81  60 /  10  20  20  20  30
BEAVER OK                  63  90  64  90  64 /   0   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              58  88  59  84  58 /   5  10  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  65  87  66  85  63 /   5  10  10  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              60  84  61  82  60 /   5  20  10  20  30
CANYON TX                  61  83  61  81  60 /  10  20  20  20  30
CLARENDON TX               63  85  64  83  63 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 57  84  60  82  59 /   5  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  61  90  62  89  62 /   5  10   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                60  82  60  80  60 /  10  20  20  30  40
LIPSCOMB TX                64  89  64  87  64 /   5  10   5  10  10
PAMPA TX                   63  86  63  84  63 /   5  10  10  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                65  86  64  85  65 /   5  10  10  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              66  86  65  85  65 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KEPZ 162057
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
257 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BORDERLAND IS CERTAIN TO GET MORE RAIN...AND A LOT OF
IT...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. FLASH
FLOODING...SOME OF IT SERIOUS IS EXPECTED...AND THE AREA IS UNDER
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COPIOUS RAIN
AND CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION...HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL HANG BACK AND KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF WEATHER FEATURES TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA JUST OFF THE BAJA. WE SIT IN A DEEP AND VERY MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ON THE STORMS WET EAST SIDE. PW`S ARE OVER
1.65" WITH A MAX OF NEAR 1 3/4" EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. THIS PUTS OUR AREA JUST BELOW THE RECORD
LEVELS FOR MID-SEPTEMBER PW. THE STORM ITSELF WILL CONTINUE IT`S
TRACK NORTH AND A LITTLE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN AZ...JUST SW OF
TUCSON, AZ. THE CENTER IS PROGED TO CROSS INTO THE U.S. LATE WED
EVENING...AND TRACK OVER THE GILA AND INTO CENTRAL NM ON THURSDAY.
THIS IS THE SET UP FOR THE ANTICIPATED WEATHER THE NEXT 72 HRS.

THIS AFTERNOON WE SEE CONVECTIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA IN THE REGION WITH BETTER SUNSHINE. THE
STORM MOTION IS TO THE NORTH SO WE ANTICIPATED AN INCREASE IN
STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
AIDING THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY AND DEEP
MOISTURE SURGE WITH ANOTHER ODILE BAND. THIS SPOKE WILL LIKELY
MOVE OVER THE CWFA IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE. OVERALL RAINFALL RATES OF .3 TO .75" PER HOUR IS EXPECTED
BUT THE THUNDERSTORM CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 2X TO 3X THOSE
RATES...AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES TONIGHT.

LIKE WE DID TODAY...WE MIGHT SEE A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER IN THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS AND MORE SO AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE
ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAIN
ACTIVITY STARTING OVER WESTERN ZONES IN THE BOOTHEEL AND GILA AS
ODILE BEGINS TO NEAR THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THIS AREA OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
OF INCREASE BOTH THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THUS POPS IN THE 80-100% PROBABILITY ARE
COMMON AND STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 1-3" RANGE
EAST...2-4" CENTRAL...3-5" WESTERN LOWLANDS...4-6" AREA MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL BE GREAT VARIABILITY IN THE PCPN AMOUNT ACROSS THE
REGION AND GREATER AMOUNTS UP TO 8-9" OVER LOCAL AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THOSE GREATER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER AREAS MTNS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY WE CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT MIDNIGHT. OF SPECIAL NOTE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WILL BEGIN TRACKING
EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE
SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING RAIN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY. DRIER AIR IN WESTERLY AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION LATE FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE WON`T TOTALLY DRY
OUT THE AIRMASS SO WE`LL KEEP CHANCES FOR ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE WATCHING YET ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM
ATTEMPTING TO CRAWL UP THE BAJA...MUCH LIKE NORBERT DID. IT COULD
GIVE US ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR
NEXT WEEK.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 17/00Z - 18/00Z...
AN IMPULSE ROTATING SLOWLY UP AROUND TROPICAL THE EASTERN SIDE OF
STORM ODILE...WILL BRING MORE CLOUDY SKIES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO SOUTHERN NM /
WEST TX THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WED AFTERNOON.  LOOK FOR LOWLAND CLDS SCT 010-020 BKN-OVC
CIGS TO 030-050 AGL...WITH SCT VIS TO 3 SM IN -SHRA/SHRA AND TSRA.
CIGS TO 005 NEAR MTNS OVER LOWLANDS.  LOOK FOR LIFR BKN MTN
OBSCURATIONS THROUGH PD. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE
STORMS. WINDS WILL BE FROM ENE-SE AROUND 06-09 KTS.

22-TRIPOLI

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN FOREASTING TRACK OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  FEATURE
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AS IT INITIALLY HEADS NORTH
EAST INTO ARIZONA...THEN EAST NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NM.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH UP TO 9 INCHES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY FRIDAY
EVENING ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY.

14-TRIPOLI

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  80  68  82  69 /  90  80 100  90  50
SIERRA BLANCA           63  75  63  78  62 /  60  50  70  90  50
LAS CRUCES              65  79  65  80  66 /  90  90 100  90  50
ALAMOGORDO              66  80  64  81  65 /  90  90 100 100  80
CLOUDCROFT              51  58  49  61  49 / 100  90 100 100 100
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  79  64  81  65 /  90  90 100 100  60
SILVER CITY             59  75  60  75  60 / 100 100 100  90  70
DEMING                  63  80  64  82  64 /  90 100 100  80  50
LORDSBURG               64  80  65  80  64 / 100 100 100  70  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      67  79  68  82  68 /  90  80 100  90  50
DELL CITY               65  79  65  82  64 /  60  60  70 100  70
FORT HANCOCK            64  80  67  84  67 /  60  60  80  90  50
LOMA LINDA              62  74  62  75  64 /  90  60  90  90  60
FABENS                  67  80  66  82  67 /  80  80 100  90  50
SANTA TERESA            65  79  66  81  67 /  90  90 100  80  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          65  77  65  80  66 /  90  80 100  90  60
JORNADA RANGE           61  79  62  81  61 /  90  90 100  90  60
HATCH                   63  77  64  80  63 /  90  90 100 100  50
COLUMBUS                67  79  65  82  66 /  90  90 100  60  50
OROGRANDE               66  77  66  79  66 /  90  70  90 100  70
MAYHILL                 55  67  54  69  55 / 100  90 100 100 100
MESCALERO               56  68  55  71  56 / 100  90 100 100 100
TIMBERON                54  66  52  68  54 / 100  90 100 100  90
WINSTON                 56  71  55  72  58 /  90 100 100 100  70
HILLSBORO               60  75  59  75  62 /  90 100 100 100  70
SPACEPORT               62  77  63  80  63 /  90  90 100 100  60
LAKE ROBERTS            56  74  55  75  58 / 100 100 100 100  70
HURLEY                  61  77  61  77  63 / 100 100 100  80  70
CLIFF                   55  77  54  78  54 / 100 100 100  80  70
MULE CREEK              52  76  51  76  53 / 100 100 100  90  70
FAYWOOD                 60  76  61  76  63 /  90 100 100  80  70
ANIMAS                  65  78  66  82  65 / 100  90 100  60  60
HACHITA                 61  80  62  82  62 / 100 100 100  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  79  62  83  61 / 100  90 100  60  50
CLOVERDALE              59  78  59  79  62 / 100  90 100  70  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14/22






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 162057
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
257 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BORDERLAND IS CERTAIN TO GET MORE RAIN...AND A LOT OF
IT...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. FLASH
FLOODING...SOME OF IT SERIOUS IS EXPECTED...AND THE AREA IS UNDER
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COPIOUS RAIN
AND CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE DAY
FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION...HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL HANG BACK AND KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
IN PLAY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF WEATHER FEATURES TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA JUST OFF THE BAJA. WE SIT IN A DEEP AND VERY MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ON THE STORMS WET EAST SIDE. PW`S ARE OVER
1.65" WITH A MAX OF NEAR 1 3/4" EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. THIS PUTS OUR AREA JUST BELOW THE RECORD
LEVELS FOR MID-SEPTEMBER PW. THE STORM ITSELF WILL CONTINUE IT`S
TRACK NORTH AND A LITTLE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN AZ...JUST SW OF
TUCSON, AZ. THE CENTER IS PROGED TO CROSS INTO THE U.S. LATE WED
EVENING...AND TRACK OVER THE GILA AND INTO CENTRAL NM ON THURSDAY.
THIS IS THE SET UP FOR THE ANTICIPATED WEATHER THE NEXT 72 HRS.

THIS AFTERNOON WE SEE CONVECTIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA IN THE REGION WITH BETTER SUNSHINE. THE
STORM MOTION IS TO THE NORTH SO WE ANTICIPATED AN INCREASE IN
STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
AIDING THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY AND DEEP
MOISTURE SURGE WITH ANOTHER ODILE BAND. THIS SPOKE WILL LIKELY
MOVE OVER THE CWFA IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE. OVERALL RAINFALL RATES OF .3 TO .75" PER HOUR IS EXPECTED
BUT THE THUNDERSTORM CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 2X TO 3X THOSE
RATES...AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING ISSUES TONIGHT.

LIKE WE DID TODAY...WE MIGHT SEE A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER IN THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS AND MORE SO AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WE
ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAIN
ACTIVITY STARTING OVER WESTERN ZONES IN THE BOOTHEEL AND GILA AS
ODILE BEGINS TO NEAR THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING WE SHOULD SEE THIS AREA OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND
OF INCREASE BOTH THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THUS POPS IN THE 80-100% PROBABILITY ARE
COMMON AND STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 1-3" RANGE
EAST...2-4" CENTRAL...3-5" WESTERN LOWLANDS...4-6" AREA MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL BE GREAT VARIABILITY IN THE PCPN AMOUNT ACROSS THE
REGION AND GREATER AMOUNTS UP TO 8-9" OVER LOCAL AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THOSE GREATER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER AREAS MTNS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY WE CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND EXTEND IT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT MIDNIGHT. OF SPECIAL NOTE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WILL BEGIN TRACKING
EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE
SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING RAIN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY. DRIER AIR IN WESTERLY AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION LATE FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE WON`T TOTALLY DRY
OUT THE AIRMASS SO WE`LL KEEP CHANCES FOR ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK WE WILL BE WATCHING YET ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM
ATTEMPTING TO CRAWL UP THE BAJA...MUCH LIKE NORBERT DID. IT COULD
GIVE US ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR
NEXT WEEK.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 17/00Z - 18/00Z...
AN IMPULSE ROTATING SLOWLY UP AROUND TROPICAL THE EASTERN SIDE OF
STORM ODILE...WILL BRING MORE CLOUDY SKIES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO SOUTHERN NM /
WEST TX THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WED AFTERNOON.  LOOK FOR LOWLAND CLDS SCT 010-020 BKN-OVC
CIGS TO 030-050 AGL...WITH SCT VIS TO 3 SM IN -SHRA/SHRA AND TSRA.
CIGS TO 005 NEAR MTNS OVER LOWLANDS.  LOOK FOR LIFR BKN MTN
OBSCURATIONS THROUGH PD. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE
STORMS. WINDS WILL BE FROM ENE-SE AROUND 06-09 KTS.

22-TRIPOLI

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN FOREASTING TRACK OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  FEATURE
WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AS IT INITIALLY HEADS NORTH
EAST INTO ARIZONA...THEN EAST NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NM.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2-5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH UP TO 9 INCHES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY FRIDAY
EVENING ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY.

14-TRIPOLI

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 67  80  68  82  69 /  90  80 100  90  50
SIERRA BLANCA           63  75  63  78  62 /  60  50  70  90  50
LAS CRUCES              65  79  65  80  66 /  90  90 100  90  50
ALAMOGORDO              66  80  64  81  65 /  90  90 100 100  80
CLOUDCROFT              51  58  49  61  49 / 100  90 100 100 100
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  79  64  81  65 /  90  90 100 100  60
SILVER CITY             59  75  60  75  60 / 100 100 100  90  70
DEMING                  63  80  64  82  64 /  90 100 100  80  50
LORDSBURG               64  80  65  80  64 / 100 100 100  70  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      67  79  68  82  68 /  90  80 100  90  50
DELL CITY               65  79  65  82  64 /  60  60  70 100  70
FORT HANCOCK            64  80  67  84  67 /  60  60  80  90  50
LOMA LINDA              62  74  62  75  64 /  90  60  90  90  60
FABENS                  67  80  66  82  67 /  80  80 100  90  50
SANTA TERESA            65  79  66  81  67 /  90  90 100  80  40
WHITE SANDS HQ          65  77  65  80  66 /  90  80 100  90  60
JORNADA RANGE           61  79  62  81  61 /  90  90 100  90  60
HATCH                   63  77  64  80  63 /  90  90 100 100  50
COLUMBUS                67  79  65  82  66 /  90  90 100  60  50
OROGRANDE               66  77  66  79  66 /  90  70  90 100  70
MAYHILL                 55  67  54  69  55 / 100  90 100 100 100
MESCALERO               56  68  55  71  56 / 100  90 100 100 100
TIMBERON                54  66  52  68  54 / 100  90 100 100  90
WINSTON                 56  71  55  72  58 /  90 100 100 100  70
HILLSBORO               60  75  59  75  62 /  90 100 100 100  70
SPACEPORT               62  77  63  80  63 /  90  90 100 100  60
LAKE ROBERTS            56  74  55  75  58 / 100 100 100 100  70
HURLEY                  61  77  61  77  63 / 100 100 100  80  70
CLIFF                   55  77  54  78  54 / 100 100 100  80  70
MULE CREEK              52  76  51  76  53 / 100 100 100  90  70
FAYWOOD                 60  76  61  76  63 /  90 100 100  80  70
ANIMAS                  65  78  66  82  65 / 100  90 100  60  60
HACHITA                 61  80  62  82  62 / 100 100 100  60  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  79  62  83  61 / 100  90 100  60  50
CLOVERDALE              59  78  59  79  62 / 100  90 100  70  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

14/22





000
FXUS64 KFWD 162050
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...THUS HAVE LEFT SOME 30 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO ATHENS LINE WITH
TEENS AND 20S FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY STILL TROPICAL STORM
ODILE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GFS AND
NAM QPFS IS LOW AS THEY GENERATE SOME 5 INCH PLUS BOMBS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC...SO HAVE SHOWN THE
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
SLIGHT THINNING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS DECK AND SUBSEQUENT
DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN ANY TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME WARRANTED
SHOULD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUE TO THIN MORE THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CU AND TCU SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. TCU...CU...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO.

15-BAIN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
WACO, TX              73  89  74  84  71 /  30  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             71  89  72  88  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  91  72  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  72  89  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
TERRELL, TX           74  90  74  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  90  73  87  71 /  20  30  40  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  73  83  70 /  30  50  40  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  89  71  89  68 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58






000
FXUS64 KCRP 162050
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE GFS PROG THE
WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION TNGT THEN SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SWD WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX.
LATEST MSAS DEPICTS THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS OVER THE CNTRL
CWA. THIS SYSTEM IS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
OWING TO SFC FORCING/MSTR/LOW CIN (NAM DETERMINISTIC.) EXPECT
LINGERING MSTR WEDNESDAY (NAM DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS) TO
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA (THE
SHORTWAVES MAY ALSO PROVIDE LIMITED FORCING)...THEN MAINLY OVER
THE CNTRL/WRN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...SIMILAR TO THIS AFTN. EXPECT
MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WED AROUND 100F OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BOTH
LOOK TO BE RATHER WET DAYS WITH DEEP MOISTURE (~2.2 PW VALUES) OVER
MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
THURS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SIMILARLY BE IN PLACE FRIDAY...WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS DUE TO H250 DIFLUENCE. THESE TWO DAYS SHOULD ALSO SEE A
NUMBER OF WEAK H500 SHORTWAVES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN H500 RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE H500 RIDGE WILL HAVE
MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH TEXAS DECREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID...DEEP MOISTURE WILL PW
STILL ~2 IN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY DESPITE THE
LACKLUSTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT SUNDAY OR MONDAY. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER
OR NOT THIS FRONT WILL EVEN MAKE INTO THE REGION OR WHETHER OR NOT A
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE
BIGGEST OUTLIER OF THE DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE MODELS IN THE
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. CMC DGEX AND
GFS ALL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH...WITH CMC SUGGESTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DGEX MONDAY MORNING...AND GFS STALLING IT OUT OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE SPLIT THE EXTREMES AND GONE
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FROM DAY 6 ONWARD. HAVE GONE WITH 30% POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER AS THE FRONT SCOURS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  89  78  90  76  /  40  50  30  40  20
VICTORIA          75  89  75  90  75  /  40  50  30  50  30
LAREDO            77  93  78  93  78  /  50  50  30  30  20
ALICE             76  91  76  91  75  /  30  50  20  50  20
ROCKPORT          78  87  79  89  79  /  40  50  30  40  30
COTULLA           75  91  75  91  75  /  50  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        76  91  77  91  76  /  40  50  20  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  87  80  90  80  /  40  50  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
IB/90...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KFWD 162050
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...THUS HAVE LEFT SOME 30 PERCENT POPS
THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH OF AN EASTLAND TO ATHENS LINE WITH
TEENS AND 20S FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY STILL TROPICAL STORM
ODILE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL GFS AND
NAM QPFS IS LOW AS THEY GENERATE SOME 5 INCH PLUS BOMBS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY SUNSET. THE
ECMWF AND GFS KEEP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS UNREALISTIC...SO HAVE SHOWN THE
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
SLIGHT THINNING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS DECK AND SUBSEQUENT
DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN ANY TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME WARRANTED
SHOULD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUE TO THIN MORE THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CU AND TCU SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. TCU...CU...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO.

15-BAIN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
WACO, TX              73  89  74  84  71 /  30  40  40  50  30
PARIS, TX             71  89  72  88  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
DENTON, TX            72  91  72  90  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  72  89  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
DALLAS, TX            75  91  75  90  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
TERRELL, TX           74  90  74  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  90  73  87  71 /  20  30  40  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  88  73  83  70 /  30  50  40  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  89  71  89  68 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58







000
FXUS64 KCRP 162050
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
350 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE GFS PROG THE
WEAK UPPER RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION TNGT THEN SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SWD WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX.
LATEST MSAS DEPICTS THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS OVER THE CNTRL
CWA. THIS SYSTEM IS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
OWING TO SFC FORCING/MSTR/LOW CIN (NAM DETERMINISTIC.) EXPECT
LINGERING MSTR WEDNESDAY (NAM DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS) TO
CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA (THE
SHORTWAVES MAY ALSO PROVIDE LIMITED FORCING)...THEN MAINLY OVER
THE CNTRL/WRN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...SIMILAR TO THIS AFTN. EXPECT
MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WED AROUND 100F OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BOTH
LOOK TO BE RATHER WET DAYS WITH DEEP MOISTURE (~2.2 PW VALUES) OVER
MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES
THURS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SIMILARLY BE IN PLACE FRIDAY...WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS DUE TO H250 DIFLUENCE. THESE TWO DAYS SHOULD ALSO SEE A
NUMBER OF WEAK H500 SHORTWAVES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN H500 RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE H500 RIDGE WILL HAVE
MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH TEXAS DECREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID...DEEP MOISTURE WILL PW
STILL ~2 IN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY DESPITE THE
LACKLUSTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE IS A
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT SUNDAY OR MONDAY. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER
OR NOT THIS FRONT WILL EVEN MAKE INTO THE REGION OR WHETHER OR NOT A
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE
BIGGEST OUTLIER OF THE DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE MODELS IN THE
ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. CMC DGEX AND
GFS ALL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH...WITH CMC SUGGESTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...DGEX MONDAY MORNING...AND GFS STALLING IT OUT OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE SPLIT THE EXTREMES AND GONE
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FROM DAY 6 ONWARD. HAVE GONE WITH 30% POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY WITH A DRYING TREND THEREAFTER AS THE FRONT SCOURS OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  89  78  90  76  /  40  50  30  40  20
VICTORIA          75  89  75  90  75  /  40  50  30  50  30
LAREDO            77  93  78  93  78  /  50  50  30  30  20
ALICE             76  91  76  91  75  /  30  50  20  50  20
ROCKPORT          78  87  79  89  79  /  40  50  30  40  30
COTULLA           75  91  75  91  75  /  50  50  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        76  91  77  91  76  /  40  50  20  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  87  80  90  80  /  40  50  30  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
IB/90...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KSJT 162046
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
345 PM CDT Tue SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

As of 3 PM...isolated to scattered showers have developed across
the area in an uncapped and weakly unstable airmass. Most of this
activity will diminish with the loss of heating after sunset this
evening. Tropical moisture will remain in place across West Texas
tonight through Wednesday as the remnants of Odile continue to
spread east across the area. Much like the past couple of nights,
a few showers will be possible during the overnight period and will
keep the inherited slight POPs intact.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Wednesday
as embedded disturbances from the remnants of Odile move across the
area. Precipitable water values will remain high (around 2 inches)
and steering flow rather weak, so locally heavy rainfall will be a
concern with the strongest convection. Low temperatures tonight will
be around 70 degrees, with highs on Wednesday in the mid and upper
80s

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night into Tuesday)


Remnants of Odile are expected to move northeast into the Texas
Panhandle Friday and Oklahoma Friday night/Saturday. Both the GFS
and EC develop several bands of showers eastward into West
Central Texas during this period. With a tropical atmosphere in
place and precipitable water amounts approaching 2 inches,
potential exists for locally heavy rainfall in bands that
develop, particularly during afternoon hours. Low level focus for
convection will be lacking, but a few areas could pick up 1 to 3
inches in slow moving storms.

A cold front moves through Sunday. Again, locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will be possible in tropical like
atmosphere. Computers solutions have slowed down front as it moves
into West Central Texas, with both the GFS and EC models indicating
rainfall continuing into Monday and Tuesday next week. Will not put
in rain chances in for Monday and Tuesday, but later shifts will
need to reevaluate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  86  69  83  69 /  30  40  50  50  40
San Angelo  70  86  71  86  71 /  20  40  50  50  30
Junction  72  85  72  86  72 /  30  40  50  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 162046
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
345 PM CDT Tue SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

As of 3 PM...isolated to scattered showers have developed across
the area in an uncapped and weakly unstable airmass. Most of this
activity will diminish with the loss of heating after sunset this
evening. Tropical moisture will remain in place across West Texas
tonight through Wednesday as the remnants of Odile continue to
spread east across the area. Much like the past couple of nights,
a few showers will be possible during the overnight period and will
keep the inherited slight POPs intact.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Wednesday
as embedded disturbances from the remnants of Odile move across the
area. Precipitable water values will remain high (around 2 inches)
and steering flow rather weak, so locally heavy rainfall will be a
concern with the strongest convection. Low temperatures tonight will
be around 70 degrees, with highs on Wednesday in the mid and upper
80s

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night into Tuesday)


Remnants of Odile are expected to move northeast into the Texas
Panhandle Friday and Oklahoma Friday night/Saturday. Both the GFS
and EC develop several bands of showers eastward into West
Central Texas during this period. With a tropical atmosphere in
place and precipitable water amounts approaching 2 inches,
potential exists for locally heavy rainfall in bands that
develop, particularly during afternoon hours. Low level focus for
convection will be lacking, but a few areas could pick up 1 to 3
inches in slow moving storms.

A cold front moves through Sunday. Again, locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will be possible in tropical like
atmosphere. Computers solutions have slowed down front as it moves
into West Central Texas, with both the GFS and EC models indicating
rainfall continuing into Monday and Tuesday next week. Will not put
in rain chances in for Monday and Tuesday, but later shifts will
need to reevaluate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  86  69  83  69 /  30  40  50  50  40
San Angelo  70  86  71  86  71 /  20  40  50  50  30
Junction  72  85  72  86  72 /  30  40  50  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 162046
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
345 PM CDT Tue SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

As of 3 PM...isolated to scattered showers have developed across
the area in an uncapped and weakly unstable airmass. Most of this
activity will diminish with the loss of heating after sunset this
evening. Tropical moisture will remain in place across West Texas
tonight through Wednesday as the remnants of Odile continue to
spread east across the area. Much like the past couple of nights,
a few showers will be possible during the overnight period and will
keep the inherited slight POPs intact.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Wednesday
as embedded disturbances from the remnants of Odile move across the
area. Precipitable water values will remain high (around 2 inches)
and steering flow rather weak, so locally heavy rainfall will be a
concern with the strongest convection. Low temperatures tonight will
be around 70 degrees, with highs on Wednesday in the mid and upper
80s

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night into Tuesday)


Remnants of Odile are expected to move northeast into the Texas
Panhandle Friday and Oklahoma Friday night/Saturday. Both the GFS
and EC develop several bands of showers eastward into West
Central Texas during this period. With a tropical atmosphere in
place and precipitable water amounts approaching 2 inches,
potential exists for locally heavy rainfall in bands that
develop, particularly during afternoon hours. Low level focus for
convection will be lacking, but a few areas could pick up 1 to 3
inches in slow moving storms.

A cold front moves through Sunday. Again, locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will be possible in tropical like
atmosphere. Computers solutions have slowed down front as it moves
into West Central Texas, with both the GFS and EC models indicating
rainfall continuing into Monday and Tuesday next week. Will not put
in rain chances in for Monday and Tuesday, but later shifts will
need to reevaluate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  86  69  83  69 /  30  40  50  50  40
San Angelo  70  86  71  86  71 /  20  40  50  50  30
Junction  72  85  72  86  72 /  30  40  50  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 162046
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
345 PM CDT Tue SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

As of 3 PM...isolated to scattered showers have developed across
the area in an uncapped and weakly unstable airmass. Most of this
activity will diminish with the loss of heating after sunset this
evening. Tropical moisture will remain in place across West Texas
tonight through Wednesday as the remnants of Odile continue to
spread east across the area. Much like the past couple of nights,
a few showers will be possible during the overnight period and will
keep the inherited slight POPs intact.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Wednesday
as embedded disturbances from the remnants of Odile move across the
area. Precipitable water values will remain high (around 2 inches)
and steering flow rather weak, so locally heavy rainfall will be a
concern with the strongest convection. Low temperatures tonight will
be around 70 degrees, with highs on Wednesday in the mid and upper
80s

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night into Tuesday)


Remnants of Odile are expected to move northeast into the Texas
Panhandle Friday and Oklahoma Friday night/Saturday. Both the GFS
and EC develop several bands of showers eastward into West
Central Texas during this period. With a tropical atmosphere in
place and precipitable water amounts approaching 2 inches,
potential exists for locally heavy rainfall in bands that
develop, particularly during afternoon hours. Low level focus for
convection will be lacking, but a few areas could pick up 1 to 3
inches in slow moving storms.

A cold front moves through Sunday. Again, locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding will be possible in tropical like
atmosphere. Computers solutions have slowed down front as it moves
into West Central Texas, with both the GFS and EC models indicating
rainfall continuing into Monday and Tuesday next week. Will not put
in rain chances in for Monday and Tuesday, but later shifts will
need to reevaluate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  86  69  83  69 /  30  40  50  50  40
San Angelo  70  86  71  86  71 /  20  40  50  50  30
Junction  72  85  72  86  72 /  30  40  50  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/04







000
FXUS64 KEWX 162040
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
340 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
16/12Z RAOB DATA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOWS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.5" AT KCRP
AND 1.8" AT KDRT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM /ODILE/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL
HEATING...SO A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER... GIVEN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE...WE HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE MODELS
SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN A CONCERN... ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
INCLUDED MAINLY 20-30% POPS FOR NOW. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INO THE REGION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT AND IS
NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  74  88  71 /  20  50  60  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  71  87  70 /  20  50  60  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  89  72 /  20  50  40  50  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  87  72  87  70 /  20  50  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  89  74  89  76 /  20  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  88  74  86  71 /  20  50  60  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  73  91  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  89  73  87  71 /  20  50  50  50  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  89  74  87  73 /  30  60  60  60  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  90  75 /  20  50  40  40  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KLUB 162027
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
DEFORMATION AXIS DRAPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRICT BOUNDARY BETWEEN DECENT SHOWER CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE AXIS AND LESSER THOUGH NOT ZERO CHANCES NORTH
ALTHOUGH PRECISE LOCATION AND WIDTH OF THE AXIS IS NOT VERY CLEAR.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTENSE ENOUGH...ON ORDER OF THIRD TO HALF INCH
OF RAIN IN 5-10 MINUTES...INTO THE EVENING FOR RISK OF AT LEAST
MINOR STREET FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AND HAVE ADDED MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. CLOUD SHIELD AND EXTRA DEWPOINTS
SHOULD KEEP MORE MILD MINIMUMS TONIGHT. MINOR CHANGES ALL-IN-ALL.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE THEME IN THE EXTENDED...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.

ABUNDANT AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS MOISTURE FROM ODILE
STREAMS AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND SQUARELY ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHILE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
FEEDS NORTHWARD AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE TRICK WILL BE TIMING THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS NOT A TRIVIAL TASK.
GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE NOT ATTEMPTED TO GET TOO CUTE AND CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA MAY BE MOST FAVORED FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A
MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS SITUATED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. MORE FOCUSED AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS WHAT REMAINS OF THE CENTER OF ODILE TRACKS PAST...THOUGH THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE ITS VORTICITY MAXIMUM JUST TO
OUR NORTH OF THE FA. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE EXPANDED AND INCREASED
POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT THEM JUST BELOW A
LIKELY MENTION AT THIS POINT. GIVEN ALL OF THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AND WE
HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE HWO.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE PASSING OF WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE ON
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES...THEN BRING
MODESTLY DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED
OFF ON THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL DRYING IT WAS SHOWING EARLIER...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE MID-LEVEL DRYING REGARDLESS. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH LOW RAIN CHANCES COULD PERSIST ON INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO RAISE POPS INTO MENTIONABLE LEVELS BEYOND
SUNDAY JUST YET...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
MUTED...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS AND BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS ON INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN HAND AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  60  78  61 /  20  20  30  30  40
TULIA         63  82  62  81  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     63  80  62  80  63 /  20  20  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     64  77  63  78  63 /  30  30  40  40  40
LUBBOCK       64  79  65  79  64 /  20  30  30  30  40
DENVER CITY   64  78  63  76  63 /  30  50  50  40  40
BROWNFIELD    65  79  64  78  64 /  30  40  40  40  40
CHILDRESS     68  88  67  86  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          67  83  66  83  65 /  20  30  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  86  69  84  68 /  30  30  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23





000
FXUS64 KLUB 162027
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
DEFORMATION AXIS DRAPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRICT BOUNDARY BETWEEN DECENT SHOWER CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE AXIS AND LESSER THOUGH NOT ZERO CHANCES NORTH
ALTHOUGH PRECISE LOCATION AND WIDTH OF THE AXIS IS NOT VERY CLEAR.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTENSE ENOUGH...ON ORDER OF THIRD TO HALF INCH
OF RAIN IN 5-10 MINUTES...INTO THE EVENING FOR RISK OF AT LEAST
MINOR STREET FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AND HAVE ADDED MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. CLOUD SHIELD AND EXTRA DEWPOINTS
SHOULD KEEP MORE MILD MINIMUMS TONIGHT. MINOR CHANGES ALL-IN-ALL.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE THEME IN THE EXTENDED...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.

ABUNDANT AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS MOISTURE FROM ODILE
STREAMS AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND SQUARELY ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHILE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
FEEDS NORTHWARD AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE TRICK WILL BE TIMING THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS NOT A TRIVIAL TASK.
GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE NOT ATTEMPTED TO GET TOO CUTE AND CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA MAY BE MOST FAVORED FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A
MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS SITUATED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. MORE FOCUSED AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS WHAT REMAINS OF THE CENTER OF ODILE TRACKS PAST...THOUGH THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE ITS VORTICITY MAXIMUM JUST TO
OUR NORTH OF THE FA. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE EXPANDED AND INCREASED
POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT THEM JUST BELOW A
LIKELY MENTION AT THIS POINT. GIVEN ALL OF THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AND WE
HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE HWO.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE PASSING OF WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE ON
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES...THEN BRING
MODESTLY DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED
OFF ON THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL DRYING IT WAS SHOWING EARLIER...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE MID-LEVEL DRYING REGARDLESS. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH LOW RAIN CHANCES COULD PERSIST ON INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO RAISE POPS INTO MENTIONABLE LEVELS BEYOND
SUNDAY JUST YET...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
MUTED...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS AND BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS ON INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN HAND AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  60  78  61 /  20  20  30  30  40
TULIA         63  82  62  81  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     63  80  62  80  63 /  20  20  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     64  77  63  78  63 /  30  30  40  40  40
LUBBOCK       64  79  65  79  64 /  20  30  30  30  40
DENVER CITY   64  78  63  76  63 /  30  50  50  40  40
BROWNFIELD    65  79  64  78  64 /  30  40  40  40  40
CHILDRESS     68  88  67  86  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          67  83  66  83  65 /  20  30  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  86  69  84  68 /  30  30  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23






000
FXUS64 KMAF 162023
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
323 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the increasing
potential of flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and
portions of west Texas through the end of the week. Rain chances
looking really good for the next several days as TS Odile,
currently moving north into the Desert SW, continues to provide
ample moisture eastward into the region.

Although the remnants of Odile will remain to the west of the CWA, a
series of upper level disturbances will break off and move east
over northern portions of the FA the next couple days. This will
provide enough upper forcing to help generate precipitation across
most areas (particularly the northwest) through at least
Thursday, especially given the available moisture across these
areas. The remnants of Odile is forecast to move NNE through
central NM Friday, continuing rain chances into Friday as well.
Well above normal PW (near 1.7 inches) look to persist across most
locations through Friday and heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern at times. Difficult to discern specific times when the
rain will be heaviest so went ahead and mentioned heavy rain
potential where PoPs are highest tonight-Thurs. May also need to
mention heavy rain possible for Friday as well but will only
mention moderate rainfall for now. Currently think the favored
regions to receive the most rainfall over the next few days is
southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains. Many of
these locations received heavy rainfall last week so any additional
rainfall will increase flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood
Watch will not be issued at this time but may be need to be in the
next 12 to 24 hours for these areas.

With nearly continuous moisture through the week, clouds look to
stick around and keep high temperatures below normal during this
time. On the other hand, the increased moisture and clouds will do
the opposite for lows, holding them above normal for this time of
year. Therefore, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian models bring a cold front into the region
Sunday with the ECMWF following suit much later and showing a much
weaker front. Precip is expected to develop across the region as the
front moves through but with the models not in agreement with the
arrival time, not confident when and where to place highest rain
chances. The 12Z Canadian and the previous run of the ECMWF had much
drier air coming in behind the front but the new 12Z run of the
ECMWF has now come more in line with the GFS, holding onto the
moisture and rain chances through the extended. Due to the
inconsistencies, will hold off on making any drastic changes to the
extended at this time and keep silent PoPs in days 7-8.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  79  66  79  /  30  40  40  50
BIG SPRING TX              69  81  69  83  /  30  30  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                67  79  66  81  /  60  50  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  72  89  72  89  /  20  20  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  83  70  86  /  20  30  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  74  61  75  /  50  50  50  50
HOBBS NM                   64  77  63  79  /  40  50  50  50
MARFA TX                   61  78  61  83  /  10  30  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  80  69  83  /  30  30  40  50
ODESSA TX                  68  81  69  81  /  30  40  40  50
WINK TX                    69  83  69  87  /  30  40  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/27

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http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 162023
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
323 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the increasing
potential of flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and
portions of west Texas through the end of the week. Rain chances
looking really good for the next several days as TS Odile,
currently moving north into the Desert SW, continues to provide
ample moisture eastward into the region.

Although the remnants of Odile will remain to the west of the CWA, a
series of upper level disturbances will break off and move east
over northern portions of the FA the next couple days. This will
provide enough upper forcing to help generate precipitation across
most areas (particularly the northwest) through at least
Thursday, especially given the available moisture across these
areas. The remnants of Odile is forecast to move NNE through
central NM Friday, continuing rain chances into Friday as well.
Well above normal PW (near 1.7 inches) look to persist across most
locations through Friday and heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern at times. Difficult to discern specific times when the
rain will be heaviest so went ahead and mentioned heavy rain
potential where PoPs are highest tonight-Thurs. May also need to
mention heavy rain possible for Friday as well but will only
mention moderate rainfall for now. Currently think the favored
regions to receive the most rainfall over the next few days is
southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains. Many of
these locations received heavy rainfall last week so any additional
rainfall will increase flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood
Watch will not be issued at this time but may be need to be in the
next 12 to 24 hours for these areas.

With nearly continuous moisture through the week, clouds look to
stick around and keep high temperatures below normal during this
time. On the other hand, the increased moisture and clouds will do
the opposite for lows, holding them above normal for this time of
year. Therefore, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian models bring a cold front into the region
Sunday with the ECMWF following suit much later and showing a much
weaker front. Precip is expected to develop across the region as the
front moves through but with the models not in agreement with the
arrival time, not confident when and where to place highest rain
chances. The 12Z Canadian and the previous run of the ECMWF had much
drier air coming in behind the front but the new 12Z run of the
ECMWF has now come more in line with the GFS, holding onto the
moisture and rain chances through the extended. Due to the
inconsistencies, will hold off on making any drastic changes to the
extended at this time and keep silent PoPs in days 7-8.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  79  66  79  /  30  40  40  50
BIG SPRING TX              69  81  69  83  /  30  30  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                67  79  66  81  /  60  50  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  72  89  72  89  /  20  20  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  83  70  86  /  20  30  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  74  61  75  /  50  50  50  50
HOBBS NM                   64  77  63  79  /  40  50  50  50
MARFA TX                   61  78  61  83  /  10  30  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  80  69  83  /  30  30  40  50
ODESSA TX                  68  81  69  81  /  30  40  40  50
WINK TX                    69  83  69  87  /  30  40  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/27

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http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 162015
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
315 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION SO FAR IN OUR CENTRAL
AND COASTAL COUNTIES AND ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE MORE DAYS (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/LIFT
IN THE FORM OF HARD TO TIME MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT
OF ODILE`S CIRCULATION OUT WEST COULD END UP SUPPORTING THE AREA`S
PROLONGED STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE/LIKELY POPS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME SPOTS EVEN GETTING SOME OF THEIR
RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
TO BE POSSIBLE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS WITH
DAILY TOTALS IN A 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. IF THESE TOTALS OCCUR OVER THE
SAME SPOTS...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL HAPPEN. AT THIS TIME...A FLOOD
WATCH IS NOT NEEDED. IF ACCUMULATIONS START TO ADD UP...FLOOD WATCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE LESS COVERAGE CAN BE
EXPECTED AS WE HEAD ON INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.  42
&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
TODAY HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE. COVERAGE WILL BRIEFLY
PICK UP AGAIN IN THE TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GFS AND ECMWF
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE STRENGTH OF WINDS OVER THE
WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT THOUGH. WILL
CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. 23


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO FORM AND CONCENTRATE
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A BOUNDARY AT
850 MB. CURRENTS PWATS FROM GPS MET ARE AROUND 2.20" WITH K INDEX
VALUES IN THE MID 30S. LIFT TODAY WILL COME FROM DAY TIME HEATING
AND A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO MEXICO. HIGH RES MODELS
ARE SHOWING PRECIP CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE INLAND AND
EVENTUALLY FILLING IN TODAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY FILL AROUND
INTERSTATE 10 NORTH TO ABOUT KUTS. HIGH RES MODELS THEN QUICKLY
DISSIPATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP TOMORROW AS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES
REMAIN IN PLACE. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  90  74  90  72 /  30  60  30  60  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  89  74  89  74 /  30  60  30  60  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  78 /  40  60  40  60  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KBRO 161944
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WED MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND CAMERON AND HIDALGO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE MAIN WEST TO EAST
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPS
THE EXPECTED SEPTEMBER GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAWIDE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE PLACED WELL ENOUGH TO
DEFLECT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INSTEAD. LOCALLY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICTS. WITHOUT A DEFINITE
TRIGGER...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN RAGGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOWS IN THE WIDE RANGE OF MOS GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY /FROM 3 TO 43 PERCENT/. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL
STILL HAVE COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND WONT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE DIFFERING ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FRONT COULD REACH SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOW 90S THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...IMPEDED BY DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER.


&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A RESULT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN LONGER RANGE
MARINE FORECAST AS DOMINANT SE FLOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
DECREASES SEEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOVER 3 TO
4 FEET...BEING AGITATED BY CONTINUED LOCALIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  89  80  87 /  40  50  20  40
BROWNSVILLE          77  90  78  88 /  40  50  20  40
HARLINGEN            77  92  78  89 /  40  50  20  40
MCALLEN              77  93  78  91 /  40  40  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  94  77  92 /  40  40  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  87  81  85 /  40  50  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

61/64





000
FXUS64 KBRO 161944
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WED MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND CAMERON AND HIDALGO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE MAIN WEST TO EAST
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPS
THE EXPECTED SEPTEMBER GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAWIDE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE PLACED WELL ENOUGH TO
DEFLECT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INSTEAD. LOCALLY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICTS. WITHOUT A DEFINITE
TRIGGER...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN RAGGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOWS IN THE WIDE RANGE OF MOS GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY /FROM 3 TO 43 PERCENT/. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL
STILL HAVE COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND WONT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE DIFFERING ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FRONT COULD REACH SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOW 90S THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...IMPEDED BY DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER.


&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A RESULT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN LONGER RANGE
MARINE FORECAST AS DOMINANT SE FLOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
DECREASES SEEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOVER 3 TO
4 FEET...BEING AGITATED BY CONTINUED LOCALIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  89  80  87 /  40  50  20  40
BROWNSVILLE          77  90  78  88 /  40  50  20  40
HARLINGEN            77  92  78  89 /  40  50  20  40
MCALLEN              77  93  78  91 /  40  40  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  94  77  92 /  40  40  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  87  81  85 /  40  50  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

61/64






000
FXUS64 KCRP 161836
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
136 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A MVFR/VFR CEILING COMBINATION DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 281...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
EAST. OVERNIGHT...ISOLD/SCT MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED AREAWIDE. DRG
THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY NEAR THE COAST THEN SPREADING
WESTWARD. EXCEPT FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL BEND
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY LGT WIND EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12 AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING THE COASTAL SITES
FIRST BEFORE MOVING FURTHER INLAND. WILL EXPECT TO SEE A COVERAGE
TO DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. IN AND AROUND
ANY STORMS...GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AS WELL...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING MORE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...SLOWLY INCREASING AND
SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR STRATUS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER
INLAND THIS MORNING. PWATS ARE REACHING NEAR 2.5 INCHES PER THE
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE OMEGA FIELD
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DID INCREASE POPS FURTHER
NORTH DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW OF THE UPPER JET
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CWA. WITH NO OTHER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AROUND...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BECOME STRONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST AS HEATING IS LOST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A
SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID-80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PWATS OF 2 TO 2.25
INCHES ARE PROG TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...DIURNAL INSTABILITY...OCCASIONAL MID LEVEL DPVA FROM VORT
MAXES CAUGHT IN H5 NW FLOW...AND MODEST H25 DIFFLUENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN DECREASE SOME BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT REGARDING FROPA
TIMING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER /AND COOLER/ AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAST POST FRONTAL
DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
DOWNWARD FOR FOR END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEFORE THEN...MAX TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  89  76  90  76  /  40  50  30  50  30
VICTORIA          75  87  76  90  75  /  40  50  30  50  30
LAREDO            76  94  77  95  78  /  40  40  20  30  20
ALICE             75  90  75  92  76  /  30  50  20  50  20
ROCKPORT          79  89  78  90  79  /  40  50  30  50  30
COTULLA           75  92  76  94  76  /  40  40  20  30  20
KINGSVILLE        75  89  76  91  76  /  40  40  20  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  79  90  80  /  40  50  30  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 161836
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
136 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A MVFR/VFR CEILING COMBINATION DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 281...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
EAST. OVERNIGHT...ISOLD/SCT MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED AREAWIDE. DRG
THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY NEAR THE COAST THEN SPREADING
WESTWARD. EXCEPT FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL BEND
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY LGT WIND EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12 AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING THE COASTAL SITES
FIRST BEFORE MOVING FURTHER INLAND. WILL EXPECT TO SEE A COVERAGE
TO DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. IN AND AROUND
ANY STORMS...GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AS WELL...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING MORE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...SLOWLY INCREASING AND
SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR STRATUS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER
INLAND THIS MORNING. PWATS ARE REACHING NEAR 2.5 INCHES PER THE
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE OMEGA FIELD
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DID INCREASE POPS FURTHER
NORTH DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW OF THE UPPER JET
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CWA. WITH NO OTHER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AROUND...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BECOME STRONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST AS HEATING IS LOST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A
SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID-80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PWATS OF 2 TO 2.25
INCHES ARE PROG TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...DIURNAL INSTABILITY...OCCASIONAL MID LEVEL DPVA FROM VORT
MAXES CAUGHT IN H5 NW FLOW...AND MODEST H25 DIFFLUENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN DECREASE SOME BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT REGARDING FROPA
TIMING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER /AND COOLER/ AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAST POST FRONTAL
DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
DOWNWARD FOR FOR END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEFORE THEN...MAX TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  89  76  90  76  /  40  50  30  50  30
VICTORIA          75  87  76  90  75  /  40  50  30  50  30
LAREDO            76  94  77  95  78  /  40  40  20  30  20
ALICE             75  90  75  92  76  /  30  50  20  50  20
ROCKPORT          79  89  78  90  79  /  40  50  30  50  30
COTULLA           75  92  76  94  76  /  40  40  20  30  20
KINGSVILLE        75  89  76  91  76  /  40  40  20  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  79  90  80  /  40  50  30  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KSJT 161801
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1259 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Scattered convection will develop across the area through the
afternoon hours and have included TEMPO groups at the terminals this
forecast cycle. Activity is expected to decrease this evening with
the loss of heating. Expect reductions in visibilities and ceilings
associated with convection, otherwise VFR conditions will continue
through the evening hours. MVFR stratus is expected to develop
across the southern terminals towards daybreak and linger into the
mid to late morning hours on Wednesday. Additional convection likely
to develop again Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS have moved into the KJCT site early this morning.
Expect these low clouds to linger through the mid morning hours.
In addition, abundant moisture in the mid and upper levels
continues to stream across the area from Tropical Storm Odile
which is still impacting the Baja Peninsula. Scattered periodic
light showers also continue to affect mainly KSJT and KBBD early
this morning. Expect all TAF sites to rise to VFR conditions by
18Z. Also expect to see light showers develop across much of the
area during the afternoon hours this afternoon. Although isolated
thunderstorms will be possible, the coverage is not expected to be
enough to warrant a mention, so will keep only VCSH in for this
afternoon. Winds will be light and from the southeast through
northeast. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Light showers continue to fall across parts of west central
Texas, mainly in the Concho Valley and Heartland areas early this
morning. As of 2 AM, a weak cold front had made it to a line that
stretched roughly from Oklahoma City, to Hobart, to Childress to
near Lubbock. This front is expected to stall near the Red River
Valley later this morning, before lifting back to the north later
today.

We will continue with the chance PoP forecast for today across
the area. Moisture will remain abundant for west Texas, and much
higher than normal for this time of the year as tropical moisture
from Odile continue to stream into the area. Along with this
moisture, we will see weak shortwave trough energy move across the
region. This should continue to bring scattered showers with some
isolated thunderstorms through the forecast area. Although
thunderstorms will be possible, since we will also see abundant
cloud cover, instability may be limited, keeping most of the
activity in the form of showers both today and overnight. Have not
made much change to the temperatures that were inherited. Highs in
the mid to upper 80s will be common, with lows mainly in the lower
70s.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday into Monday)

The remnants of Tropical Storm Odile will be over southern
Arizona on Wednesday and will have degraded to an upper low by the
time it moves over the northern Panhandle by Friday. Tropical
moisture will continue to affect West Central Texas through the
end of the week and into the coming weekend. Periodic disturbances
moving over the area through this time period will keep a chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. As the upper low
continues to lift to the northeast on Saturday, a cold front will
push south through the forecast area Saturday night, continuing
rain chances over the forecast area. By Sunday morning the
position of the cold front is expected to be over the southern CWA
with rain chances limited to that area. No rain is expected on
Monday.

Afternoon highs should remain in the mid to upper 80s through
Sunday with postfrontal afternoon highs on Monday a few degrees
cooler, in the low to mid 80s. Morning lows in the lower 70s
should cool into the low 60s by Monday morning in the wake of the
cold front.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  70  88  70  86 /  30  20  40  20  40
San Angelo  86  71  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  40  40
Junction  87  72  88  70  89 /  30  20  40  50  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KSJT 161801
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1259 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Scattered convection will develop across the area through the
afternoon hours and have included TEMPO groups at the terminals this
forecast cycle. Activity is expected to decrease this evening with
the loss of heating. Expect reductions in visibilities and ceilings
associated with convection, otherwise VFR conditions will continue
through the evening hours. MVFR stratus is expected to develop
across the southern terminals towards daybreak and linger into the
mid to late morning hours on Wednesday. Additional convection likely
to develop again Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS have moved into the KJCT site early this morning.
Expect these low clouds to linger through the mid morning hours.
In addition, abundant moisture in the mid and upper levels
continues to stream across the area from Tropical Storm Odile
which is still impacting the Baja Peninsula. Scattered periodic
light showers also continue to affect mainly KSJT and KBBD early
this morning. Expect all TAF sites to rise to VFR conditions by
18Z. Also expect to see light showers develop across much of the
area during the afternoon hours this afternoon. Although isolated
thunderstorms will be possible, the coverage is not expected to be
enough to warrant a mention, so will keep only VCSH in for this
afternoon. Winds will be light and from the southeast through
northeast. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Light showers continue to fall across parts of west central
Texas, mainly in the Concho Valley and Heartland areas early this
morning. As of 2 AM, a weak cold front had made it to a line that
stretched roughly from Oklahoma City, to Hobart, to Childress to
near Lubbock. This front is expected to stall near the Red River
Valley later this morning, before lifting back to the north later
today.

We will continue with the chance PoP forecast for today across
the area. Moisture will remain abundant for west Texas, and much
higher than normal for this time of the year as tropical moisture
from Odile continue to stream into the area. Along with this
moisture, we will see weak shortwave trough energy move across the
region. This should continue to bring scattered showers with some
isolated thunderstorms through the forecast area. Although
thunderstorms will be possible, since we will also see abundant
cloud cover, instability may be limited, keeping most of the
activity in the form of showers both today and overnight. Have not
made much change to the temperatures that were inherited. Highs in
the mid to upper 80s will be common, with lows mainly in the lower
70s.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday into Monday)

The remnants of Tropical Storm Odile will be over southern
Arizona on Wednesday and will have degraded to an upper low by the
time it moves over the northern Panhandle by Friday. Tropical
moisture will continue to affect West Central Texas through the
end of the week and into the coming weekend. Periodic disturbances
moving over the area through this time period will keep a chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. As the upper low
continues to lift to the northeast on Saturday, a cold front will
push south through the forecast area Saturday night, continuing
rain chances over the forecast area. By Sunday morning the
position of the cold front is expected to be over the southern CWA
with rain chances limited to that area. No rain is expected on
Monday.

Afternoon highs should remain in the mid to upper 80s through
Sunday with postfrontal afternoon highs on Monday a few degrees
cooler, in the low to mid 80s. Morning lows in the lower 70s
should cool into the low 60s by Monday morning in the wake of the
cold front.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  70  88  70  86 /  30  20  40  20  40
San Angelo  86  71  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  40  40
Junction  87  72  88  70  89 /  30  20  40  50  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KBRO 161749 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 2300FT AT KEBG TO NEAR
8500FT AT KMFE. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 6SM WITH HAZE AT KPIL.
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ON SHORE IS OVER THE RANCHLANDS AND NEAR MFE. AS THE
WAVE MOVES FURTHER INLAND IT IS EXPECTED THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT BRO AND HRL. BEST WINDOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN IS LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST THIS EVENING WITH
PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT THROUGH END OF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR CELL MOVEMENT BELIEVE THAT APEX OF TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
INLAND WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHERLY AND SHOWERS OVER
BROOKS COUNTY MOVING SOUTHWESTERLY. ITS FAIRLY MOIST OUT THERE AS WELL
WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING REVEALING A PWAT OF 2.58 INCHES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO DEPICTS 2.6 INCH PWAT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
UP TOWARDS CORPUS CHRISTI. 500 MB SHEAR LINE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AS OF THIS
WRITING...BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA /BROOKS AND KENEDY/ AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
TYPICAL STREAMER ACTIVITY INCREASING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY...WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SHOWERS GOING WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EXPECTED AS TIME GOES ON TODAY.

WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL SLOWLY FALL ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WAVE BUT NOT BY MUCH /2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING/. LIKELY
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY DESPITE MOST MOS POPS ARE WELL BELOW OUR
FORECAST. COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS AND HIGH PWATS
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE TO STAY THE COURSE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND NOT ROLL BACK POPS. FOR TONIGHT BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE OUT WEST EARLY THEN BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TO WEST
THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
.TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT /UNDER MOST IF NOT ALL
MOS GUIDANCE/. USED PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS AS A GUIDE AND HAVE MID TO
UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE...A LITTLE HIGHER OUT WEST WHERE SUN MAY BREAK
THROUGH CLOUD CANOPY. CLOUDS WONT BE AS ABUNDANT ON WEDNESDAY SO
EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER /AROUND 90 EAST TO MIDDLE 90S
WEST/.

CONCERNING AMOUNTS...GENERALLY SPEAKING ONE HALF INCH UPWARD TO ONE
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAISED
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT AS MOST MODELS DOWNPLAYING AMOUNTS BASED ON LOWER
POP CHANCES. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF HIDALGO AND CAMERON COUNTIES /WITH STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS
BEING CLOSED FROM TIME TO TIME AND SOIL MOISTURE MAXIMIZED LEADING
TO MOSTLY RUNOFF TODAY AND WITHIN URBAN AREAS/...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM.

LONG TERM...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS OVER COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL FIND ITS WAY EAST TO CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS UNDER ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING...AND WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONT MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW UPON REACHING THE
GULF...AND LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL EASE...BUT NOT END COMPLETELY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MOST OF IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE GULF FOR NOW. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE GET PICKED UP BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK...MARITIME POLAR AIR WILL CHASE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROPELLING A FRONT INTO TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY...CREATING A
TRIFECTA OF SORTS BY BLENDING IN WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EVENTUALLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THAT WILL BE JUST AFTER MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EDGING SLOWLY DOWN JUST A BIT...JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO...AS SEPTEMBER PROGRESSES...AND FCST VALUES WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
SUIT...BUT WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL
WEIGH IN AT PARTLY CLOUDY OR MORE MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WINDS MORE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A FRONT.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE...
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE
IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF...SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WEST GULF AND BY A BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER WEST. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST. THUS...THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL DICTATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNSTABLE AND UNSETTLED...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND DISRUPTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AS WELL AS PROVIDING
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW MORE STABLE PERIODS WILL OCCUR FRI
AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...BUT THE TROPICAL SHOWER MACHINE DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN FOR NOW.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/64/MARTINEZ





000
FXUS64 KBRO 161749 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 2300FT AT KEBG TO NEAR
8500FT AT KMFE. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 6SM WITH HAZE AT KPIL.
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ON SHORE IS OVER THE RANCHLANDS AND NEAR MFE. AS THE
WAVE MOVES FURTHER INLAND IT IS EXPECTED THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT BRO AND HRL. BEST WINDOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN IS LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST THIS EVENING WITH
PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT THROUGH END OF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR CELL MOVEMENT BELIEVE THAT APEX OF TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
INLAND WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHERLY AND SHOWERS OVER
BROOKS COUNTY MOVING SOUTHWESTERLY. ITS FAIRLY MOIST OUT THERE AS WELL
WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING REVEALING A PWAT OF 2.58 INCHES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO DEPICTS 2.6 INCH PWAT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
UP TOWARDS CORPUS CHRISTI. 500 MB SHEAR LINE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AS OF THIS
WRITING...BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA /BROOKS AND KENEDY/ AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
TYPICAL STREAMER ACTIVITY INCREASING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY...WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SHOWERS GOING WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EXPECTED AS TIME GOES ON TODAY.

WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL SLOWLY FALL ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WAVE BUT NOT BY MUCH /2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING/. LIKELY
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY DESPITE MOST MOS POPS ARE WELL BELOW OUR
FORECAST. COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS AND HIGH PWATS
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE TO STAY THE COURSE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND NOT ROLL BACK POPS. FOR TONIGHT BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE OUT WEST EARLY THEN BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TO WEST
THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
.TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT /UNDER MOST IF NOT ALL
MOS GUIDANCE/. USED PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS AS A GUIDE AND HAVE MID TO
UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE...A LITTLE HIGHER OUT WEST WHERE SUN MAY BREAK
THROUGH CLOUD CANOPY. CLOUDS WONT BE AS ABUNDANT ON WEDNESDAY SO
EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER /AROUND 90 EAST TO MIDDLE 90S
WEST/.

CONCERNING AMOUNTS...GENERALLY SPEAKING ONE HALF INCH UPWARD TO ONE
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAISED
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT AS MOST MODELS DOWNPLAYING AMOUNTS BASED ON LOWER
POP CHANCES. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF HIDALGO AND CAMERON COUNTIES /WITH STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS
BEING CLOSED FROM TIME TO TIME AND SOIL MOISTURE MAXIMIZED LEADING
TO MOSTLY RUNOFF TODAY AND WITHIN URBAN AREAS/...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM.

LONG TERM...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS OVER COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL FIND ITS WAY EAST TO CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS UNDER ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING...AND WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONT MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW UPON REACHING THE
GULF...AND LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL EASE...BUT NOT END COMPLETELY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MOST OF IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE GULF FOR NOW. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE GET PICKED UP BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK...MARITIME POLAR AIR WILL CHASE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROPELLING A FRONT INTO TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY...CREATING A
TRIFECTA OF SORTS BY BLENDING IN WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EVENTUALLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THAT WILL BE JUST AFTER MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EDGING SLOWLY DOWN JUST A BIT...JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO...AS SEPTEMBER PROGRESSES...AND FCST VALUES WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
SUIT...BUT WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL
WEIGH IN AT PARTLY CLOUDY OR MORE MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WINDS MORE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A FRONT.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE...
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE
IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF...SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WEST GULF AND BY A BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER WEST. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST. THUS...THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL DICTATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNSTABLE AND UNSETTLED...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND DISRUPTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AS WELL AS PROVIDING
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW MORE STABLE PERIODS WILL OCCUR FRI
AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...BUT THE TROPICAL SHOWER MACHINE DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN FOR NOW.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/64/MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KFWD 161748 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
AS NOTED IN THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THIS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON/S HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES AS THINNING MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE MORE HEATING.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
SLIGHT THINNING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS DECK AND SUBSEQUENT
DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN ANY TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME WARRANTED
SHOULD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUE TO THIN MORE THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CU AND TCU SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. TCU...CU...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO.

15-BAIN


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.
THE 12Z FWD RAOB STILL SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST SOUNDING WHICH IS THE
SAME AS THE SOUNDINGS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH NO MAJOR SOURCES OF LIFT /ONLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW/ AND NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WE ARE
COUNTING ON DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH MOST SITES THAT
RECEIVE RAIN PICKING UP LESS THAN 1/10TH OF INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  72  90  75  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              92  71  89  74  88 /  20  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  70  89  71  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            91  74  91  75  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           92  70  89  73  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  70  89  74  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            91  71  86  73  87 /  20  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  71  90  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58







000
FXUS64 KFWD 161748 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
AS NOTED IN THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THIS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON/S HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES AS THINNING MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE MORE HEATING.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
SLIGHT THINNING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS DECK AND SUBSEQUENT
DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN ANY TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME WARRANTED
SHOULD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUE TO THIN MORE THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CU AND TCU SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. TCU...CU...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO.

15-BAIN


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.
THE 12Z FWD RAOB STILL SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST SOUNDING WHICH IS THE
SAME AS THE SOUNDINGS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH NO MAJOR SOURCES OF LIFT /ONLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW/ AND NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WE ARE
COUNTING ON DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH MOST SITES THAT
RECEIVE RAIN PICKING UP LESS THAN 1/10TH OF INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  72  90  75  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              92  71  89  74  88 /  20  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  70  89  71  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            91  74  91  75  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           92  70  89  73  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  70  89  74  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            91  71  86  73  87 /  20  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  71  90  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58






000
FXUS64 KEWX 161748
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING UP FROM THE COAST. EXPECTING
THESE STORMS TO MOVE INTO SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN AFTER ABOUT 20Z
AND LAST FOR A FEW HOURS. DO NOT BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION WILL MAKE
IT TO DRT. OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. CIGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY STARTING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY DROP VIS TO MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT WEATHER MAP IS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT BASIN UP
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. IN ADDITION TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA IS SENDING A TON OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SW AND
MUCH OF TEXAS. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...MOVING ALONG THE WESTERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS. WILL KEEP CHC POP UP THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW/MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOT ONLY FROM ODILE BUT ALSO FROM A SURFACE
TROF OFF THE TEXAS COAST...WILL INCREASE POP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AT LEAST. ALREADY COASTAL AREAS ARE SEEING
PREDAWN TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING AND FORMING INLAND. HIGHEST POP
TODAY (60 PERCENT) WILL BE ALONG THE SE COASTAL
COUNTIES...LOWER CHANCE POP OVER THE FAR WEST. THERE IS NOT A
STRONG UPPER OR LOW LEVEL TRIGGER...SO MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
SH/TS ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES WILL
HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME POP OVERNIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
HIGH RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE..NOT ONLY TODAY..BUT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WELL
OVER 2 INCHES. CHANCE POP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...LESSER CHANCES AS YOU HEAD TO THE FAR WEST NEAR AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD POSE SOME ISOLATED
AND MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK. NEWEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE IS PAINTING LIKELY POP EVEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PW REMAINS HIGH. WONT GO THAT HIGH JUST YET BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR
PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. AM CARRYING SLIGHT POP RIGHT
NOW...BUT WEEKEND POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT BY THE TIME FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  88  74  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  72  87  69 /  20  40  30  50  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  73  88  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  87  72  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  88  74  89  75 /  20  40  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  87  73  86  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  73  91  72 /  20  40  20  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  88  73  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  87  73  86  72 /  30  50  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  89  74 /  20  40  30  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  74 /  30  40  30  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32





000
FXUS64 KEWX 161748
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING UP FROM THE COAST. EXPECTING
THESE STORMS TO MOVE INTO SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN AFTER ABOUT 20Z
AND LAST FOR A FEW HOURS. DO NOT BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION WILL MAKE
IT TO DRT. OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. CIGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY STARTING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY DROP VIS TO MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT WEATHER MAP IS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT BASIN UP
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. IN ADDITION TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA IS SENDING A TON OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SW AND
MUCH OF TEXAS. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...MOVING ALONG THE WESTERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS. WILL KEEP CHC POP UP THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW/MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOT ONLY FROM ODILE BUT ALSO FROM A SURFACE
TROF OFF THE TEXAS COAST...WILL INCREASE POP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AT LEAST. ALREADY COASTAL AREAS ARE SEEING
PREDAWN TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING AND FORMING INLAND. HIGHEST POP
TODAY (60 PERCENT) WILL BE ALONG THE SE COASTAL
COUNTIES...LOWER CHANCE POP OVER THE FAR WEST. THERE IS NOT A
STRONG UPPER OR LOW LEVEL TRIGGER...SO MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
SH/TS ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES WILL
HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME POP OVERNIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
HIGH RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE..NOT ONLY TODAY..BUT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WELL
OVER 2 INCHES. CHANCE POP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...LESSER CHANCES AS YOU HEAD TO THE FAR WEST NEAR AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD POSE SOME ISOLATED
AND MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK. NEWEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE IS PAINTING LIKELY POP EVEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PW REMAINS HIGH. WONT GO THAT HIGH JUST YET BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR
PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. AM CARRYING SLIGHT POP RIGHT
NOW...BUT WEEKEND POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT BY THE TIME FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  88  74  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  72  87  69 /  20  40  30  50  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  73  88  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  87  72  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  88  74  89  75 /  20  40  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  87  73  86  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  73  91  72 /  20  40  20  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  88  73  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  87  73  86  72 /  30  50  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  89  74 /  20  40  30  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  74 /  30  40  30  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32





000
FXUS64 KEWX 161748
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING UP FROM THE COAST. EXPECTING
THESE STORMS TO MOVE INTO SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN AFTER ABOUT 20Z
AND LAST FOR A FEW HOURS. DO NOT BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION WILL MAKE
IT TO DRT. OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. CIGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY STARTING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY DROP VIS TO MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT WEATHER MAP IS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT BASIN UP
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. IN ADDITION TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA IS SENDING A TON OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SW AND
MUCH OF TEXAS. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...MOVING ALONG THE WESTERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS. WILL KEEP CHC POP UP THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW/MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOT ONLY FROM ODILE BUT ALSO FROM A SURFACE
TROF OFF THE TEXAS COAST...WILL INCREASE POP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AT LEAST. ALREADY COASTAL AREAS ARE SEEING
PREDAWN TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING AND FORMING INLAND. HIGHEST POP
TODAY (60 PERCENT) WILL BE ALONG THE SE COASTAL
COUNTIES...LOWER CHANCE POP OVER THE FAR WEST. THERE IS NOT A
STRONG UPPER OR LOW LEVEL TRIGGER...SO MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
SH/TS ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES WILL
HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME POP OVERNIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
HIGH RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE..NOT ONLY TODAY..BUT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WELL
OVER 2 INCHES. CHANCE POP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...LESSER CHANCES AS YOU HEAD TO THE FAR WEST NEAR AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD POSE SOME ISOLATED
AND MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK. NEWEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE IS PAINTING LIKELY POP EVEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PW REMAINS HIGH. WONT GO THAT HIGH JUST YET BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR
PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. AM CARRYING SLIGHT POP RIGHT
NOW...BUT WEEKEND POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT BY THE TIME FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  88  74  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  72  87  69 /  20  40  30  50  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  73  88  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  87  72  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  88  74  89  75 /  20  40  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  87  73  86  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  73  91  72 /  20  40  20  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  88  73  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  87  73  86  72 /  30  50  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  89  74 /  20  40  30  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  74 /  30  40  30  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32





000
FXUS64 KEWX 161748
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1248 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING UP FROM THE COAST. EXPECTING
THESE STORMS TO MOVE INTO SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN AFTER ABOUT 20Z
AND LAST FOR A FEW HOURS. DO NOT BELIEVE ANY CONVECTION WILL MAKE
IT TO DRT. OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. CIGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY STARTING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY DROP VIS TO MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT WEATHER MAP IS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT BASIN UP
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. IN ADDITION TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA IS SENDING A TON OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SW AND
MUCH OF TEXAS. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...MOVING ALONG THE WESTERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS. WILL KEEP CHC POP UP THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW/MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOT ONLY FROM ODILE BUT ALSO FROM A SURFACE
TROF OFF THE TEXAS COAST...WILL INCREASE POP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AT LEAST. ALREADY COASTAL AREAS ARE SEEING
PREDAWN TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING AND FORMING INLAND. HIGHEST POP
TODAY (60 PERCENT) WILL BE ALONG THE SE COASTAL
COUNTIES...LOWER CHANCE POP OVER THE FAR WEST. THERE IS NOT A
STRONG UPPER OR LOW LEVEL TRIGGER...SO MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
SH/TS ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES WILL
HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME POP OVERNIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
HIGH RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE..NOT ONLY TODAY..BUT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WELL
OVER 2 INCHES. CHANCE POP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...LESSER CHANCES AS YOU HEAD TO THE FAR WEST NEAR AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD POSE SOME ISOLATED
AND MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK. NEWEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE IS PAINTING LIKELY POP EVEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PW REMAINS HIGH. WONT GO THAT HIGH JUST YET BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR
PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. AM CARRYING SLIGHT POP RIGHT
NOW...BUT WEEKEND POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT BY THE TIME FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  88  74  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  89  72  87  69 /  20  40  30  50  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  89  73  88  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  87  72  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  88  74  89  75 /  20  40  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  87  73  86  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  73  91  72 /  20  40  20  40  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  88  73  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  87  73  86  72 /  30  50  30  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  90  76  89  74 /  20  40  30  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  75  91  74 /  30  40  30  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32





000
FXUS64 KFWD 161745
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
SLIGHT THINNING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS DECK AND SUBSEQUENT
DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN ANY TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME WARRANTED
SHOULD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUE TO THIN MORE THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CU AND TCU SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. TCU...CU...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO.

15-BAIN

&&

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.
THE 12Z FWD RAOB STILL SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST SOUNDING WHICH IS THE
SAME AS THE SOUNDINGS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH NO MAJOR SOURCES OF LIFT /ONLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW/ AND NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WE ARE
COUNTING ON DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH MOST SITES THAT
RECEIVE RAIN PICKING UP LESS THAN 1/10TH OF INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  72  90  75  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              88  71  89  74  88 /  20  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  70  89  71  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            89  74  91  75  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           89  70  89  73  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  70  89  74  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  86  73  87 /  20  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  71  90  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 161745
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
SLIGHT THINNING OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS DECK AND SUBSEQUENT
DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN ANY TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME WARRANTED
SHOULD MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUE TO THIN MORE THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CU AND TCU SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. TCU...CU...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO.

15-BAIN

&&

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.
THE 12Z FWD RAOB STILL SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST SOUNDING WHICH IS THE
SAME AS THE SOUNDINGS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH NO MAJOR SOURCES OF LIFT /ONLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW/ AND NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WE ARE
COUNTING ON DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH MOST SITES THAT
RECEIVE RAIN PICKING UP LESS THAN 1/10TH OF INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  72  90  75  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              88  71  89  74  88 /  20  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  70  89  71  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            89  74  91  75  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           89  70  89  73  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  70  89  74  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  86  73  87 /  20  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  71  90  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KLUB 161722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VERY MOIST WITH MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TODAY. WEAK
DEFORMATION AXIS ALOFT WILL FAVOR BEST SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES
SOUTH OF KCDS TODAY...AND LIKELY JUST SOUTHWEST OF KLBB AS WELL
THOUGH A CLOSER CALL HERE. SURFACE FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT
PERHAPS ADVECTING TOWARDS KLBB. ADDED A LOW SCATTERED CLOUD
TOMORROW MORNING TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX/

AVIATION...
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING BY 18Z. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED TS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO KEEP PRIMARY RAIN
CHANCES SW OF KLBB. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN FIRST 9 HOURS OF THE FCST
WILL REMOVE SHOWER MENTION AND REEVALUATE AT 18Z ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM IT. MODELS
PROG A MODEST UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
IT IS HARD TO VERIFY THAT AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ODILE. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK...
THE JET STREAK MOVING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PULL UP
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS THERE WHILE THE NERN ZONES GETTING THE SHORT
END OF THE STICK...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FCST. PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES THIS AFTN MAINLY IN A
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BUT SPREAD OUT FAIRLY EVENLY THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING SUGGESTS SHOWERS
FAVORED BUT THUNDER NOT RULED OUT. FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WILL BE LEAST
LIKELY TO WORK OUT ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO BE THINNEST AND RAIN CHANCES THE LEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE DOMINATING ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WEST TO NEAR FAR SWRN TX/NERN OLD MEXICO BY MID-WEEK...THUS CAUSING
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. OUR PERSISTENT
FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GO UNDISTURBED...AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRANSLATED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CAUSE PWATS TO GO ON THE RISE /1.20-1.80
INCHES BY MID-WEEK/. ODILE IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT BY WESTERLIES
ALOFT...AND EVOLVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES REGION BY LATE WEEK. THUS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE...COUPLED WITH A PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
TO RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK /HIGHEST POPS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION/. WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP EXITS THE REGION IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE AS LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE/S
SPEED. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
EAST OF THE FA BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE SRN ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THIS FRONT BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP...THOUGH THE SRN
AND ERN ZONES ARE HIGHLY FAVORED. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND IS A
TAD SLOWER...AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
ECMWF IN GENERAL TENDS TO BE A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM THAN THE GFS.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. AS SUCH...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  81  60  79  61 /  20  20  20  30  40
TULIA         62  83  62  80  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     63  81  62  79  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  78  63  78  64 /  20  30  30  40  40
LUBBOCK       66  79  65  79  65 /  20  30  20  40  30
DENVER CITY   65  76  63  76  64 /  30  50  40  40  40
BROWNFIELD    66  78  65  78  65 /  20  40  30  40  40
CHILDRESS     67  86  66  86  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          67  83  67  82  66 /  20  30  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  84  69  84  68 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05





000
FXUS64 KLUB 161722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VERY MOIST WITH MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TODAY. WEAK
DEFORMATION AXIS ALOFT WILL FAVOR BEST SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES
SOUTH OF KCDS TODAY...AND LIKELY JUST SOUTHWEST OF KLBB AS WELL
THOUGH A CLOSER CALL HERE. SURFACE FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT
PERHAPS ADVECTING TOWARDS KLBB. ADDED A LOW SCATTERED CLOUD
TOMORROW MORNING TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX/

AVIATION...
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING BY 18Z. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED TS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO KEEP PRIMARY RAIN
CHANCES SW OF KLBB. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN FIRST 9 HOURS OF THE FCST
WILL REMOVE SHOWER MENTION AND REEVALUATE AT 18Z ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM IT. MODELS
PROG A MODEST UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
IT IS HARD TO VERIFY THAT AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ODILE. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK...
THE JET STREAK MOVING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PULL UP
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS THERE WHILE THE NERN ZONES GETTING THE SHORT
END OF THE STICK...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FCST. PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES THIS AFTN MAINLY IN A
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BUT SPREAD OUT FAIRLY EVENLY THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING SUGGESTS SHOWERS
FAVORED BUT THUNDER NOT RULED OUT. FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WILL BE LEAST
LIKELY TO WORK OUT ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO BE THINNEST AND RAIN CHANCES THE LEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE DOMINATING ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WEST TO NEAR FAR SWRN TX/NERN OLD MEXICO BY MID-WEEK...THUS CAUSING
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. OUR PERSISTENT
FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GO UNDISTURBED...AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRANSLATED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CAUSE PWATS TO GO ON THE RISE /1.20-1.80
INCHES BY MID-WEEK/. ODILE IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT BY WESTERLIES
ALOFT...AND EVOLVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES REGION BY LATE WEEK. THUS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE...COUPLED WITH A PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
TO RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK /HIGHEST POPS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION/. WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP EXITS THE REGION IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE AS LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE/S
SPEED. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
EAST OF THE FA BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE SRN ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THIS FRONT BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP...THOUGH THE SRN
AND ERN ZONES ARE HIGHLY FAVORED. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND IS A
TAD SLOWER...AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
ECMWF IN GENERAL TENDS TO BE A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM THAN THE GFS.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. AS SUCH...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  81  60  79  61 /  20  20  20  30  40
TULIA         62  83  62  80  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     63  81  62  79  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  78  63  78  64 /  20  30  30  40  40
LUBBOCK       66  79  65  79  65 /  20  30  20  40  30
DENVER CITY   65  76  63  76  64 /  30  50  40  40  40
BROWNFIELD    66  78  65  78  65 /  20  40  30  40  40
CHILDRESS     67  86  66  86  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          67  83  67  82  66 /  20  30  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  84  69  84  68 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05






000
FXUS64 KMAF 161716
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS have mostly lifted across the TAFs sites, except at HOB
where -SHRA are moving thru. Visible imagery indicates clouds
will hang around thru the day and we are watching cu field expand to
the e/se of MAf where there is some sunshine and the potential for
SHRA to develop from se-nw into the MAF area this PM. Otherwise
tonight have included TEMPO TSRA at CNM and have brought MVFR CIGS
back in at all sites around 09Z.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 161716
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS have mostly lifted across the TAFs sites, except at HOB
where -SHRA are moving thru. Visible imagery indicates clouds
will hang around thru the day and we are watching cu field expand to
the e/se of MAf where there is some sunshine and the potential for
SHRA to develop from se-nw into the MAF area this PM. Otherwise
tonight have included TEMPO TSRA at CNM and have brought MVFR CIGS
back in at all sites around 09Z.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
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000
FXUS64 KMAF 161716
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS have mostly lifted across the TAFs sites, except at HOB
where -SHRA are moving thru. Visible imagery indicates clouds
will hang around thru the day and we are watching cu field expand to
the e/se of MAf where there is some sunshine and the potential for
SHRA to develop from se-nw into the MAF area this PM. Otherwise
tonight have included TEMPO TSRA at CNM and have brought MVFR CIGS
back in at all sites around 09Z.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 161716
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS have mostly lifted across the TAFs sites, except at HOB
where -SHRA are moving thru. Visible imagery indicates clouds
will hang around thru the day and we are watching cu field expand to
the e/se of MAf where there is some sunshine and the potential for
SHRA to develop from se-nw into the MAF area this PM. Otherwise
tonight have included TEMPO TSRA at CNM and have brought MVFR CIGS
back in at all sites around 09Z.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KAMA 161711 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME
MODELS HINTING AT LIFR CONDITIONS FROM 07Z TO ABOUT 15Z WITH LOW FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN.  CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM HURRICANE ODILE OVER THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPS WARMER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.

FOR KDHT AND KGUY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
VERY LOW POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS 09Z-14Z.

BEAT/JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE MORNING PRODUCTS AS VISIBILITIES ARE
RAPIDLY IMPROVING WITH THE ONSET OF SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THESE ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP. HOWEVER, AT LEAST A BROKEN DECK OF STRATUS/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO, SO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK
DOWNWARD WAS MADE TO HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS WITH IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AT KAMA AND KDHT...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KGUY.  BY AFTERNOON...SOUTH SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ASSISTING IN THE
EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE REMAIN FOCUSED UPON THE POTENTIAL
FOR WEATHER IMPACTS EMANATING FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES YESTERDAY HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CORE OF A PARENT
1020 MB SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TODAY...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES BY AFTERNOON AND
MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.

BY FAR THE MOST OBVIOUS WEATHER FEATURE APPARENT IN CURRENT VAPOR
IMAGERY IS THE IMMENSE UPPER AIR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE. SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAS ALREADY EDGED NORTHEASTWARD OVER WEST
TEXAS...AND WILL REMAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN THE DAYS AHEAD...CONTRIBUTING TO A DAILY MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RECENT NWP HAS DONE
LITTLE TO INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE HANDLING OF ODILE/S
REMNANTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE
DEPICTED A GENERAL SHEARING OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A FEW HAVE TRANSLATED THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MORE DIRECT IMPACT FROM ODILE AND
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS PLAINS CENTERED ON THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD MATERIALIZE. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE
40 PERCENT GRIDDED POPS OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

A COHERENT SIGNAL REMAINS FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IF ANY MOISTURE RECEIVED FROM ODILE WOULD STILL BE LINGERING.
IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHER RAIN/STORM CHANCES MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH LATER UPDATES.

LINDLEY

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

EA/MB/JJ





000
FXUS64 KAMA 161711 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME
MODELS HINTING AT LIFR CONDITIONS FROM 07Z TO ABOUT 15Z WITH LOW FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN.  CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM HURRICANE ODILE OVER THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPS WARMER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.

FOR KDHT AND KGUY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
VERY LOW POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS 09Z-14Z.

BEAT/JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE MORNING PRODUCTS AS VISIBILITIES ARE
RAPIDLY IMPROVING WITH THE ONSET OF SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THESE ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP. HOWEVER, AT LEAST A BROKEN DECK OF STRATUS/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO, SO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK
DOWNWARD WAS MADE TO HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS WITH IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AT KAMA AND KDHT...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KGUY.  BY AFTERNOON...SOUTH SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ASSISTING IN THE
EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE REMAIN FOCUSED UPON THE POTENTIAL
FOR WEATHER IMPACTS EMANATING FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES YESTERDAY HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CORE OF A PARENT
1020 MB SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TODAY...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES BY AFTERNOON AND
MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.

BY FAR THE MOST OBVIOUS WEATHER FEATURE APPARENT IN CURRENT VAPOR
IMAGERY IS THE IMMENSE UPPER AIR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE. SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAS ALREADY EDGED NORTHEASTWARD OVER WEST
TEXAS...AND WILL REMAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN THE DAYS AHEAD...CONTRIBUTING TO A DAILY MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RECENT NWP HAS DONE
LITTLE TO INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE HANDLING OF ODILE/S
REMNANTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE
DEPICTED A GENERAL SHEARING OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A FEW HAVE TRANSLATED THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MORE DIRECT IMPACT FROM ODILE AND
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS PLAINS CENTERED ON THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD MATERIALIZE. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE
40 PERCENT GRIDDED POPS OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

A COHERENT SIGNAL REMAINS FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IF ANY MOISTURE RECEIVED FROM ODILE WOULD STILL BE LINGERING.
IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHER RAIN/STORM CHANCES MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH LATER UPDATES.

LINDLEY

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

EA/MB/JJ





000
FXUS64 KAMA 161711 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME
MODELS HINTING AT LIFR CONDITIONS FROM 07Z TO ABOUT 15Z WITH LOW FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN.  CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM HURRICANE ODILE OVER THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPS WARMER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.

FOR KDHT AND KGUY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
VERY LOW POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS 09Z-14Z.

BEAT/JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE MORNING PRODUCTS AS VISIBILITIES ARE
RAPIDLY IMPROVING WITH THE ONSET OF SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THESE ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP. HOWEVER, AT LEAST A BROKEN DECK OF STRATUS/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO, SO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK
DOWNWARD WAS MADE TO HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS WITH IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AT KAMA AND KDHT...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KGUY.  BY AFTERNOON...SOUTH SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ASSISTING IN THE
EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE REMAIN FOCUSED UPON THE POTENTIAL
FOR WEATHER IMPACTS EMANATING FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES YESTERDAY HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CORE OF A PARENT
1020 MB SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TODAY...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES BY AFTERNOON AND
MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.

BY FAR THE MOST OBVIOUS WEATHER FEATURE APPARENT IN CURRENT VAPOR
IMAGERY IS THE IMMENSE UPPER AIR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE. SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAS ALREADY EDGED NORTHEASTWARD OVER WEST
TEXAS...AND WILL REMAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN THE DAYS AHEAD...CONTRIBUTING TO A DAILY MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RECENT NWP HAS DONE
LITTLE TO INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE HANDLING OF ODILE/S
REMNANTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE
DEPICTED A GENERAL SHEARING OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A FEW HAVE TRANSLATED THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MORE DIRECT IMPACT FROM ODILE AND
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS PLAINS CENTERED ON THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD MATERIALIZE. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE
40 PERCENT GRIDDED POPS OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

A COHERENT SIGNAL REMAINS FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IF ANY MOISTURE RECEIVED FROM ODILE WOULD STILL BE LINGERING.
IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHER RAIN/STORM CHANCES MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH LATER UPDATES.

LINDLEY

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

EA/MB/JJ





000
FXUS64 KAMA 161711 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME
MODELS HINTING AT LIFR CONDITIONS FROM 07Z TO ABOUT 15Z WITH LOW FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN.  CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM HURRICANE ODILE OVER THE
AREA KEEPING TEMPS WARMER THAN MODELS SUGGEST.

FOR KDHT AND KGUY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
VERY LOW POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS 09Z-14Z.

BEAT/JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE MORNING PRODUCTS AS VISIBILITIES ARE
RAPIDLY IMPROVING WITH THE ONSET OF SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THESE ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP. HOWEVER, AT LEAST A BROKEN DECK OF STRATUS/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO, SO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK
DOWNWARD WAS MADE TO HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

JACKSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS WITH IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AT KAMA AND KDHT...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KGUY.  BY AFTERNOON...SOUTH SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ASSISTING IN THE
EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE REMAIN FOCUSED UPON THE POTENTIAL
FOR WEATHER IMPACTS EMANATING FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES YESTERDAY HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CORE OF A PARENT
1020 MB SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TODAY...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES BY AFTERNOON AND
MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.

BY FAR THE MOST OBVIOUS WEATHER FEATURE APPARENT IN CURRENT VAPOR
IMAGERY IS THE IMMENSE UPPER AIR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE. SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAS ALREADY EDGED NORTHEASTWARD OVER WEST
TEXAS...AND WILL REMAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN THE DAYS AHEAD...CONTRIBUTING TO A DAILY MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RECENT NWP HAS DONE
LITTLE TO INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE HANDLING OF ODILE/S
REMNANTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE
DEPICTED A GENERAL SHEARING OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A FEW HAVE TRANSLATED THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MORE DIRECT IMPACT FROM ODILE AND
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS PLAINS CENTERED ON THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD MATERIALIZE. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE
40 PERCENT GRIDDED POPS OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

A COHERENT SIGNAL REMAINS FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IF ANY MOISTURE RECEIVED FROM ODILE WOULD STILL BE LINGERING.
IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHER RAIN/STORM CHANCES MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH LATER UPDATES.

LINDLEY

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

EA/MB/JJ





000
FXUS64 KHGX 161705
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO FORM AND CONCENTRATE
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A BOUNDARY AT
850 MB. CURRENTS PWATS FROM GPS MET ARE AROUND 2.20" WITH K INDEX
VALUES IN THE MID 30S. LIFT TODAY WILL COME FROM DAY TIME HEATING
AND A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO MEXICO. HIGH RES MODELS
ARE SHOWING PRECIP CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE INLAND AND
EVENTUALLY FILLING IN TODAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY FILL AROUND
INTERSTATE 10 NORTH TO ABOUT KUTS. HIGH RES MODELS THEN QUICKLY
DISSIPATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP TOMORROW AS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES
REMAIN IN PLACE. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THAT LEVEL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
ANTICIPATE DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY
GENERALLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THEN INLAND DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A
QUICK 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY COMMON...AND
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THESE COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WHERE TRAINING SETS UP...DAILY TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WOULD NOT
BE UNEXPECTED.

ONLY CHANGE TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TODAY`S
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED
CLOUD AND RAINFALL COVERAGE.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PATTERN FOR SE TX THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT FEATURES COMBINE/INTERACT AND GIVE US A
RATHER WET FCST. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST-
ERLY WAVE MOVING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING (AS EVIDENT BY THE PCPN
DEVELOPING/TRACKING INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS). THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE (2-2.3" PWS) FCST TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS THE GULF REMAINS WIDE OPEN. OVER THE NRN COUNTIES WE
ARE STILL SEEING RADAR ECHOES (LIGHT PCPN) STREAMING ACROSS FROM
THE W/NW...PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE (WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCA-
TED OVER THE MID CALI BAJA). THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL EVENTUAL-
LY GET CAUGHT UP INTO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW AND BEGIN MOVING ENEWD
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRAS TODAY AND TOMORROW. ELEVATED POPS COULD STAY
IN PLACE THROUGH THUR GIVEN THE PROGGED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE VAR-
IOUS SYSTEMS. LOOKING AHEAD...EXTENDED MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS LATE SUN/EARLY MON SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE RAINS. 41

MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING ON THE SW FLANK OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING THEN AS TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE SHEARS OUT EXPECT THE AXIS OF CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT
WEST AND NORTH WITH COVERAGE DECREASING IN THE EVENING. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE BAYS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASE A LITTLE TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GFS AND ECMWF
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY LATE OR EARLY TUESDAY...MAY REACH SCEC IN
THE WAKE AS FRONT MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. 45

AVIATION...
EXPECT THAT TODAY THE TERMINALS WILL BE PLAGUED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN FROM THE COAST THIS
MORNING AND THEN DEVELOPING INLAND AND MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  91  74  90  72 /  30  50  30  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  74  91  74 /  30  60  30  50  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  89  79  88  78 /  40  60  40  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KHGX 161705
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1205 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO FORM AND CONCENTRATE
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A BOUNDARY AT
850 MB. CURRENTS PWATS FROM GPS MET ARE AROUND 2.20" WITH K INDEX
VALUES IN THE MID 30S. LIFT TODAY WILL COME FROM DAY TIME HEATING
AND A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO MEXICO. HIGH RES MODELS
ARE SHOWING PRECIP CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE INLAND AND
EVENTUALLY FILLING IN TODAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY FILL AROUND
INTERSTATE 10 NORTH TO ABOUT KUTS. HIGH RES MODELS THEN QUICKLY
DISSIPATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP TOMORROW AS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES
REMAIN IN PLACE. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THAT LEVEL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
ANTICIPATE DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY
GENERALLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THEN INLAND DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A
QUICK 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY COMMON...AND
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THESE COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WHERE TRAINING SETS UP...DAILY TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WOULD NOT
BE UNEXPECTED.

ONLY CHANGE TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TODAY`S
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED
CLOUD AND RAINFALL COVERAGE.  42

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PATTERN FOR SE TX THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT FEATURES COMBINE/INTERACT AND GIVE US A
RATHER WET FCST. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST-
ERLY WAVE MOVING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING (AS EVIDENT BY THE PCPN
DEVELOPING/TRACKING INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS). THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE (2-2.3" PWS) FCST TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS THE GULF REMAINS WIDE OPEN. OVER THE NRN COUNTIES WE
ARE STILL SEEING RADAR ECHOES (LIGHT PCPN) STREAMING ACROSS FROM
THE W/NW...PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE (WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCA-
TED OVER THE MID CALI BAJA). THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL EVENTUAL-
LY GET CAUGHT UP INTO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW AND BEGIN MOVING ENEWD
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRAS TODAY AND TOMORROW. ELEVATED POPS COULD STAY
IN PLACE THROUGH THUR GIVEN THE PROGGED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE VAR-
IOUS SYSTEMS. LOOKING AHEAD...EXTENDED MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS LATE SUN/EARLY MON SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE RAINS. 41

MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING ON THE SW FLANK OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING THEN AS TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE SHEARS OUT EXPECT THE AXIS OF CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT
WEST AND NORTH WITH COVERAGE DECREASING IN THE EVENING. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE BAYS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASE A LITTLE TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GFS AND ECMWF
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY LATE OR EARLY TUESDAY...MAY REACH SCEC IN
THE WAKE AS FRONT MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. 45

AVIATION...
EXPECT THAT TODAY THE TERMINALS WILL BE PLAGUED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN FROM THE COAST THIS
MORNING AND THEN DEVELOPING INLAND AND MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  91  74  90  72 /  30  50  30  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  74  91  74 /  30  60  30  50  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  89  79  88  78 /  40  60  40  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23



000
FXUS64 KAMA 161627 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1127 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE MORNING PRODUCTS AS VISIBILITIES ARE
RAPIDLY IMPROVING WITH THE ONSET OF SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE MORE STUBBORN TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THESE ARE
STARTING TO BREAK UP. HOWEVER, AT LEAST A BROKEN DECK OF STRATUS/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO, SO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK
DOWNWARD WAS MADE TO HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS WITH IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AT KAMA AND KDHT...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KGUY.  BY AFTERNOON...SOUTH SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ASSISTING IN THE
EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE REMAIN FOCUSED UPON THE POTENTIAL
FOR WEATHER IMPACTS EMANATING FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES YESTERDAY HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CORE OF A PARENT
1020 MB SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TODAY...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES BY AFTERNOON AND
MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.

BY FAR THE MOST OBVIOUS WEATHER FEATURE APPARENT IN CURRENT VAPOR
IMAGERY IS THE IMMENSE UPPER AIR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE. SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAS ALREADY EDGED NORTHEASTWARD OVER WEST
TEXAS...AND WILL REMAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN THE DAYS AHEAD...CONTRIBUTING TO A DAILY MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RECENT NWP HAS DONE
LITTLE TO INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE HANDLING OF ODILE/S
REMNANTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE
DEPICTED A GENERAL SHEARING OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A FEW HAVE TRANSLATED THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MORE DIRECT IMPACT FROM ODILE AND
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS PLAINS CENTERED ON THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD MATERIALIZE. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE
40 PERCENT GRIDDED POPS OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

A COHERENT SIGNAL REMAINS FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IF ANY MOISTURE RECEIVED FROM ODILE WOULD STILL BE LINGERING.
IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHER RAIN/STORM CHANCES MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH LATER UPDATES.

LINDLEY

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

EA/JJ






000
FXUS64 KFWD 161607 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.
THE 12Z FWD RAOB STILL SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST SOUNDING WHICH IS THE
SAME AS THE SOUNDINGS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH NO MAJOR SOURCES OF LIFT /ONLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW/ AND NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WE ARE
COUNTING ON DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH MOST SITES THAT
RECEIVE RAIN PICKING UP LESS THAN 1/10TH OF INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE 1200 UTC TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL FEATURE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS.
RICH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT ONLY
SUBTLE AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THAT WILL RESULT WILL BE PERSISTENT MID CLOUD CEILINGS WITH A
CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT WILL BE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL ONLY FORECAST VCSH AT KACT THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST
LATER TODAY. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL NOT IMPACT VISIBILITY OR
CEILING. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECT EAST OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO
CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.    /09


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  72  90  75  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              88  71  89  74  88 /  20  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  70  89  71  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            89  74  91  75  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           89  70  89  73  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  70  89  74  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  86  73  87 /  20  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  71  90  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58









000
FXUS64 KFWD 161607 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.
THE 12Z FWD RAOB STILL SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST SOUNDING WHICH IS THE
SAME AS THE SOUNDINGS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH NO MAJOR SOURCES OF LIFT /ONLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW/ AND NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WE ARE
COUNTING ON DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH MOST SITES THAT
RECEIVE RAIN PICKING UP LESS THAN 1/10TH OF INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE 1200 UTC TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL FEATURE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS.
RICH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT ONLY
SUBTLE AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THAT WILL RESULT WILL BE PERSISTENT MID CLOUD CEILINGS WITH A
CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT WILL BE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL ONLY FORECAST VCSH AT KACT THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST
LATER TODAY. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL NOT IMPACT VISIBILITY OR
CEILING. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECT EAST OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO
CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.    /09


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  72  90  75  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              88  71  89  74  88 /  20  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  70  89  71  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            89  74  91  75  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           89  70  89  73  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  70  89  74  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  86  73  87 /  20  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  71  90  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58









000
FXUS64 KFWD 161607 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.
THE 12Z FWD RAOB STILL SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST SOUNDING WHICH IS THE
SAME AS THE SOUNDINGS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH NO MAJOR SOURCES OF LIFT /ONLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW/ AND NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WE ARE
COUNTING ON DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH MOST SITES THAT
RECEIVE RAIN PICKING UP LESS THAN 1/10TH OF INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE 1200 UTC TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL FEATURE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS.
RICH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT ONLY
SUBTLE AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THAT WILL RESULT WILL BE PERSISTENT MID CLOUD CEILINGS WITH A
CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT WILL BE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL ONLY FORECAST VCSH AT KACT THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST
LATER TODAY. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL NOT IMPACT VISIBILITY OR
CEILING. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECT EAST OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO
CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.    /09


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  72  90  75  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              88  71  89  74  88 /  20  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  70  89  71  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            89  74  91  75  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           89  70  89  73  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  70  89  74  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  86  73  87 /  20  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  71  90  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58









000
FXUS64 KFWD 161607 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.
THE 12Z FWD RAOB STILL SHOWS A PRETTY MOIST SOUNDING WHICH IS THE
SAME AS THE SOUNDINGS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH NO MAJOR SOURCES OF LIFT /ONLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE UPPER FLOW/ AND NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WE ARE
COUNTING ON DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TODAY. HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH MOST SITES THAT
RECEIVE RAIN PICKING UP LESS THAN 1/10TH OF INCH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MANY BREAKS WE SEE IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE 1200 UTC TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL FEATURE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS.
RICH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT ONLY
SUBTLE AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THAT WILL RESULT WILL BE PERSISTENT MID CLOUD CEILINGS WITH A
CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT WILL BE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL ONLY FORECAST VCSH AT KACT THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST
LATER TODAY. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL NOT IMPACT VISIBILITY OR
CEILING. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECT EAST OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO
CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.    /09


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  90  72  90  75  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              88  71  89  74  88 /  20  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          89  70  89  71  91 /  10  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            89  74  91  75  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           89  70  89  73  90 /  10  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  70  89  74  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  86  73  87 /  20  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  71  90  71  89 /  10  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/58









000
FXUS64 KHGX 161531
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1031 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW WELL ABOVE TWO INCHES AND
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THAT LEVEL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
ANTICIPATE DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY
GENERALLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THEN INLAND DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A
QUICK 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY COMMON...AND
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THESE COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WHERE TRAINING SETS UP...DAILY TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WOULD NOT
BE UNEXPECTED.

ONLY CHANGE TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TODAY`S
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED
CLOUD AND RAINFALL COVERAGE.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PATTERN FOR SE TX THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT FEATURES COMBINE/INTERACT AND GIVE US A
RATHER WET FCST. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST-
ERLY WAVE MOVING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING (AS EVIDENT BY THE PCPN
DEVELOPING/TRACKING INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS). THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE (2-2.3" PWS) FCST TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS THE GULF REMAINS WIDE OPEN. OVER THE NRN COUNTIES WE
ARE STILL SEEING RADAR ECHOES (LIGHT PCPN) STREAMING ACROSS FROM
THE W/NW...PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE (WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCA-
TED OVER THE MID CALI BAJA). THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL EVENTUAL-
LY GET CAUGHT UP INTO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW AND BEGIN MOVING ENEWD
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRAS TODAY AND TOMORROW. ELEVATED POPS COULD STAY
IN PLACE THROUGH THUR GIVEN THE PROGGED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE VAR-
IOUS SYSTEMS. LOOKING AHEAD...EXTENDED MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS LATE SUN/EARLY MON SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE RAINS. 41

MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING ON THE SW FLANK OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING THEN AS TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE SHEARS OUT EXPECT THE AXIS OF CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT
WEST AND NORTH WITH COVERAGE DECREASING IN THE EVENING. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE BAYS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASE A LITTLE TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GFS AND ECMWF
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY LATE OR EARLY TUESDAY...MAY REACH SCEC IN
THE WAKE AS FRONT MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. 45

AVIATION...
EXPECT THAT TODAY THE TERMINALS WILL BE PLAGUED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN FROM THE COAST THIS
MORNING AND THEN DEVELOPING INLAND AND MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      90  74  91  74  90 /  50  30  50  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  75  92  74  91 /  60  30  60  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  79  89  79  88 /  60  40  60  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42



000
FXUS64 KSJT 161150
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS have moved into the KJCT site early this morning.
Expect these low clouds to linger through the mid morning hours.
In addition, abundant moisture in the mid and upper levels
continues to stream across the area from Tropical Storm Odile
which is still impacting the Baja Peninsula. Scattered periodic
light showers also continue to affect mainly KSJT and KBBD early
this morning. Expect all TAF sites to rise to VFR conditions by
18Z. Also expect to see light showers develop across much of the
area during the afternoon hours this afternoon. Although isolated
thunderstorms will be possible, the coverage is not expected to be
enough to warrant a mention, so will keep only VCSH in for this
afternoon. Winds will be light and from the southeast through
northeast. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Light showers continue to fall across parts of west central
Texas, mainly in the Concho Valley and Heartland areas early this
morning. As of 2 AM, a weak cold front had made it to a line that
stretched roughly from Oklahoma City, to Hobart, to Childress to
near Lubbock. This front is expected to stall near the Red River
Valley later this morning, before lifting back to the north later
today.

We will continue with the chance PoP forecast for today across
the area. Moisture will remain abundant for west Texas, and much
higher than normal for this time of the year as tropical moisture
from Odile continue to stream into the area. Along with this
moisture, we will see weak shortwave trough energy move across the
region. This should continue to bring scattered showers with some
isolated thunderstorms through the forecast area. Although
thunderstorms will be possible, since we will also see abundant
cloud cover, instability may be limited, keeping most of the
activity in the form of showers both today and overnight. Have not
made much change to the temperatures that were inherited. Highs in
the mid to upper 80s will be common, with lows mainly in the lower
70s.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday into Monday)

The remnants of Tropical Storm Odile will be over southern
Arizona on Wednesday and will have degraded to an upper low by the
time it moves over the northern Panhandle by Friday. Tropical
moisture will continue to affect West Central Texas through the
end of the week and into the coming weekend. Periodic disturbances
moving over the area through this time period will keep a chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. As the upper low
continues to lift to the northeast on Saturday, a cold front will
push south through the forecast area Saturday night, continuing
rain chances over the forecast area. By Sunday morning the
position of the cold front is expected to be over the southern CWA
with rain chances limited to that area. No rain is expected on
Monday.

Afternoon highs should remain in the mid to upper 80s through
Sunday with postfrontal afternoon highs on Monday a few degrees
cooler, in the low to mid 80s. Morning lows in the lower 70s
should cool into the low 60s by Monday morning in the wake of the
cold front.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  70  88  70  86 /  30  20  40  20  40
San Angelo  86  71  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  40  40
Junction  87  72  88  70  89 /  30  20  40  50  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 161150
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS have moved into the KJCT site early this morning.
Expect these low clouds to linger through the mid morning hours.
In addition, abundant moisture in the mid and upper levels
continues to stream across the area from Tropical Storm Odile
which is still impacting the Baja Peninsula. Scattered periodic
light showers also continue to affect mainly KSJT and KBBD early
this morning. Expect all TAF sites to rise to VFR conditions by
18Z. Also expect to see light showers develop across much of the
area during the afternoon hours this afternoon. Although isolated
thunderstorms will be possible, the coverage is not expected to be
enough to warrant a mention, so will keep only VCSH in for this
afternoon. Winds will be light and from the southeast through
northeast. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Light showers continue to fall across parts of west central
Texas, mainly in the Concho Valley and Heartland areas early this
morning. As of 2 AM, a weak cold front had made it to a line that
stretched roughly from Oklahoma City, to Hobart, to Childress to
near Lubbock. This front is expected to stall near the Red River
Valley later this morning, before lifting back to the north later
today.

We will continue with the chance PoP forecast for today across
the area. Moisture will remain abundant for west Texas, and much
higher than normal for this time of the year as tropical moisture
from Odile continue to stream into the area. Along with this
moisture, we will see weak shortwave trough energy move across the
region. This should continue to bring scattered showers with some
isolated thunderstorms through the forecast area. Although
thunderstorms will be possible, since we will also see abundant
cloud cover, instability may be limited, keeping most of the
activity in the form of showers both today and overnight. Have not
made much change to the temperatures that were inherited. Highs in
the mid to upper 80s will be common, with lows mainly in the lower
70s.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday into Monday)

The remnants of Tropical Storm Odile will be over southern
Arizona on Wednesday and will have degraded to an upper low by the
time it moves over the northern Panhandle by Friday. Tropical
moisture will continue to affect West Central Texas through the
end of the week and into the coming weekend. Periodic disturbances
moving over the area through this time period will keep a chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. As the upper low
continues to lift to the northeast on Saturday, a cold front will
push south through the forecast area Saturday night, continuing
rain chances over the forecast area. By Sunday morning the
position of the cold front is expected to be over the southern CWA
with rain chances limited to that area. No rain is expected on
Monday.

Afternoon highs should remain in the mid to upper 80s through
Sunday with postfrontal afternoon highs on Monday a few degrees
cooler, in the low to mid 80s. Morning lows in the lower 70s
should cool into the low 60s by Monday morning in the wake of the
cold front.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  70  88  70  86 /  30  20  40  20  40
San Angelo  86  71  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  40  40
Junction  87  72  88  70  89 /  30  20  40  50  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 161150
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS have moved into the KJCT site early this morning.
Expect these low clouds to linger through the mid morning hours.
In addition, abundant moisture in the mid and upper levels
continues to stream across the area from Tropical Storm Odile
which is still impacting the Baja Peninsula. Scattered periodic
light showers also continue to affect mainly KSJT and KBBD early
this morning. Expect all TAF sites to rise to VFR conditions by
18Z. Also expect to see light showers develop across much of the
area during the afternoon hours this afternoon. Although isolated
thunderstorms will be possible, the coverage is not expected to be
enough to warrant a mention, so will keep only VCSH in for this
afternoon. Winds will be light and from the southeast through
northeast. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Light showers continue to fall across parts of west central
Texas, mainly in the Concho Valley and Heartland areas early this
morning. As of 2 AM, a weak cold front had made it to a line that
stretched roughly from Oklahoma City, to Hobart, to Childress to
near Lubbock. This front is expected to stall near the Red River
Valley later this morning, before lifting back to the north later
today.

We will continue with the chance PoP forecast for today across
the area. Moisture will remain abundant for west Texas, and much
higher than normal for this time of the year as tropical moisture
from Odile continue to stream into the area. Along with this
moisture, we will see weak shortwave trough energy move across the
region. This should continue to bring scattered showers with some
isolated thunderstorms through the forecast area. Although
thunderstorms will be possible, since we will also see abundant
cloud cover, instability may be limited, keeping most of the
activity in the form of showers both today and overnight. Have not
made much change to the temperatures that were inherited. Highs in
the mid to upper 80s will be common, with lows mainly in the lower
70s.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday into Monday)

The remnants of Tropical Storm Odile will be over southern
Arizona on Wednesday and will have degraded to an upper low by the
time it moves over the northern Panhandle by Friday. Tropical
moisture will continue to affect West Central Texas through the
end of the week and into the coming weekend. Periodic disturbances
moving over the area through this time period will keep a chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. As the upper low
continues to lift to the northeast on Saturday, a cold front will
push south through the forecast area Saturday night, continuing
rain chances over the forecast area. By Sunday morning the
position of the cold front is expected to be over the southern CWA
with rain chances limited to that area. No rain is expected on
Monday.

Afternoon highs should remain in the mid to upper 80s through
Sunday with postfrontal afternoon highs on Monday a few degrees
cooler, in the low to mid 80s. Morning lows in the lower 70s
should cool into the low 60s by Monday morning in the wake of the
cold front.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  70  88  70  86 /  30  20  40  20  40
San Angelo  86  71  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  40  40
Junction  87  72  88  70  89 /  30  20  40  50  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 161150
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
MVFR CIGS have moved into the KJCT site early this morning.
Expect these low clouds to linger through the mid morning hours.
In addition, abundant moisture in the mid and upper levels
continues to stream across the area from Tropical Storm Odile
which is still impacting the Baja Peninsula. Scattered periodic
light showers also continue to affect mainly KSJT and KBBD early
this morning. Expect all TAF sites to rise to VFR conditions by
18Z. Also expect to see light showers develop across much of the
area during the afternoon hours this afternoon. Although isolated
thunderstorms will be possible, the coverage is not expected to be
enough to warrant a mention, so will keep only VCSH in for this
afternoon. Winds will be light and from the southeast through
northeast. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Light showers continue to fall across parts of west central
Texas, mainly in the Concho Valley and Heartland areas early this
morning. As of 2 AM, a weak cold front had made it to a line that
stretched roughly from Oklahoma City, to Hobart, to Childress to
near Lubbock. This front is expected to stall near the Red River
Valley later this morning, before lifting back to the north later
today.

We will continue with the chance PoP forecast for today across
the area. Moisture will remain abundant for west Texas, and much
higher than normal for this time of the year as tropical moisture
from Odile continue to stream into the area. Along with this
moisture, we will see weak shortwave trough energy move across the
region. This should continue to bring scattered showers with some
isolated thunderstorms through the forecast area. Although
thunderstorms will be possible, since we will also see abundant
cloud cover, instability may be limited, keeping most of the
activity in the form of showers both today and overnight. Have not
made much change to the temperatures that were inherited. Highs in
the mid to upper 80s will be common, with lows mainly in the lower
70s.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday into Monday)

The remnants of Tropical Storm Odile will be over southern
Arizona on Wednesday and will have degraded to an upper low by the
time it moves over the northern Panhandle by Friday. Tropical
moisture will continue to affect West Central Texas through the
end of the week and into the coming weekend. Periodic disturbances
moving over the area through this time period will keep a chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. As the upper low
continues to lift to the northeast on Saturday, a cold front will
push south through the forecast area Saturday night, continuing
rain chances over the forecast area. By Sunday morning the
position of the cold front is expected to be over the southern CWA
with rain chances limited to that area. No rain is expected on
Monday.

Afternoon highs should remain in the mid to upper 80s through
Sunday with postfrontal afternoon highs on Monday a few degrees
cooler, in the low to mid 80s. Morning lows in the lower 70s
should cool into the low 60s by Monday morning in the wake of the
cold front.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  70  88  70  86 /  30  20  40  20  40
San Angelo  86  71  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  40  40
Junction  87  72  88  70  89 /  30  20  40  50  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KEWX 161146
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA WILL BECOME SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE TAF SITES...HAVE TEMPOS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BETWEEN 16/18Z-17/04Z AND VCSH
OVERNIGHT AFTER 17/06Z AND THEN PREVAILING SHRA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AFTER 17/12Z. VFR SKIES PREVAIL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH ISOLD TO SCT
SHRA. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ELY WINDS 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT SOME GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT WEATHER MAP IS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT BASIN UP
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. IN ADDITION TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA IS SENDING A TON OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SW AND
MUCH OF TEXAS. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...MOVING ALONG THE WESTERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS. WILL KEEP CHC POP UP THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW/MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOT ONLY FROM ODILE BUT ALSO FROM A SURFACE
TROF OFF THE TEXAS COAST...WILL INCREASE POP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AT LEAST. ALREADY COASTAL AREAS ARE SEEING
PREDAWN TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING AND FORMING INLAND. HIGHEST POP
TODAY (60 PERCENT) WILL BE ALONG THE SE COASTAL
COUNTIES...LOWER CHANCE POP OVER THE FAR WEST. THERE IS NOT A
STRONG UPPER OR LOW LEVEL TRIGGER...SO MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
SH/TS ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES WILL
HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME POP OVERNIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
HIGH RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE..NOT ONLY TODAY..BUT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WELL
OVER 2 INCHES. CHANCE POP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...LESSER CHANCES AS YOU HEAD TO THE FAR WEST NEAR AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD POSE SOME ISOLATED
AND MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK. NEWEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE IS PAINTING LIKELY POP EVEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PW REMAINS HIGH. WONT GO THAT HIGH JUST YET BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR
PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. AM CARRYING SLIGHT POP RIGHT
NOW...BUT WEEKEND POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT BY THE TIME FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  74  88  74  87 /  40  20  40  30  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  72  89  72  87 /  40  20  40  30  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  73  89  73  88 /  40  20  40  30  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  73  87  72  87 /  30  20  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  75  88  74  89 /  20  20  40  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  74  87  73  86 /  30  20  40  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  73  91  73  91 /  40  20  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  73  88  73  87 /  40  20  40  30  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  87  73  86 /  50  30  50  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  76  90  76  89 /  40  20  40  30  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  75  91  75  91 /  40  30  40  30  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09






000
FXUS64 KEWX 161146
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA WILL BECOME SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE TAF SITES...HAVE TEMPOS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BETWEEN 16/18Z-17/04Z AND VCSH
OVERNIGHT AFTER 17/06Z AND THEN PREVAILING SHRA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AFTER 17/12Z. VFR SKIES PREVAIL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH ISOLD TO SCT
SHRA. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ELY WINDS 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT SOME GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT WEATHER MAP IS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT BASIN UP
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. IN ADDITION TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA IS SENDING A TON OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SW AND
MUCH OF TEXAS. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...MOVING ALONG THE WESTERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS. WILL KEEP CHC POP UP THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW/MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOT ONLY FROM ODILE BUT ALSO FROM A SURFACE
TROF OFF THE TEXAS COAST...WILL INCREASE POP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AT LEAST. ALREADY COASTAL AREAS ARE SEEING
PREDAWN TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING AND FORMING INLAND. HIGHEST POP
TODAY (60 PERCENT) WILL BE ALONG THE SE COASTAL
COUNTIES...LOWER CHANCE POP OVER THE FAR WEST. THERE IS NOT A
STRONG UPPER OR LOW LEVEL TRIGGER...SO MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
SH/TS ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES WILL
HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME POP OVERNIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
HIGH RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE..NOT ONLY TODAY..BUT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WELL
OVER 2 INCHES. CHANCE POP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...LESSER CHANCES AS YOU HEAD TO THE FAR WEST NEAR AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD POSE SOME ISOLATED
AND MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK. NEWEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE IS PAINTING LIKELY POP EVEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PW REMAINS HIGH. WONT GO THAT HIGH JUST YET BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR
PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. AM CARRYING SLIGHT POP RIGHT
NOW...BUT WEEKEND POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT BY THE TIME FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  74  88  74  87 /  40  20  40  30  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  72  89  72  87 /  40  20  40  30  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  73  89  73  88 /  40  20  40  30  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  73  87  72  87 /  30  20  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  75  88  74  89 /  20  20  40  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  74  87  73  86 /  30  20  40  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  73  91  73  91 /  40  20  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  73  88  73  87 /  40  20  40  30  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  87  73  86 /  50  30  50  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  76  90  76  89 /  40  20  40  30  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  75  91  75  91 /  40  30  40  30  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09





000
FXUS64 KFWD 161142 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
THE 1200 UTC TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL FEATURE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS.
RICH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT ONLY
SUBTLE AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THAT WILL RESULT WILL BE PERSISTENT MID CLOUD CEILINGS WITH A
CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10 KFT WILL BE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL ONLY FORECAST VCSH AT KACT THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST
LATER TODAY. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL NOT IMPACT VISIBILITY OR
CEILING. FOR ALL SITES...EXPECT EAST OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO
CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.    /09

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  89  72  90  75  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              88  71  89  74  88 /  30  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  70  89  71  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            89  74  91  75  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           89  70  89  73  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  70  89  74  89 /  30  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  86  73  87 /  30  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  71  90  71  89 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

09/






000
FXUS64 KMAF 161139
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
639 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect falling cigs as low clouds over the South Plains hiding
under extensive mid cloud deck move south. Will see development
of MVFR cigs and vsbys as some fog forms.  Best chance of rain/storms
will be at CNM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, under perpetually OVC skies.  Sfc obs show a weak cold
front in the S. Plains, but models stall it just north of the FA
this morning.  To the SW, T.S. Odile was nearly halfway up the Baja
peninsula, and looks to be the source region for rainfall the next
few days.  KMAF 00Z RAOB came in w/a pwats of 1.67", which is about 2
STD DEVs from normal for this time of year.  Models maintain these
high pwats thru at least Saturday night, w/Tds at KMAF remaining at
64F or better during the duration.  Expect current convection to
develop further and intensify today as a vort band from Odile
develops into the area from the west and over the top of the upper
ridge to the south.  Considered issuing a FFA for wrn zones today,
but would rather wait until Odile has made her turn to the NE.
Otherwise, models keep breaking off disturbances from Odile over the
next few days, and sending them E-SE thru the region.  Given
saturated soils from last week`s rains, FFG area-wide will remain
low, and the flash flood threat will be the main concern.  We`ll
continue to emphasize this in the HWO for now, as well as an SPS.

For temps, overcast skies look to dominate most of this forecast,
w/plenty of mid/high lvl moisture spinning off Odile.  Thus, we`ve
generally narrowed the diurnal spread of the MOS numbers, w/H85 temp
trends and forecast soundings suggesting staying closer to the
warmer GFS as opposed to the cooler ECMWF.  Saturday night,
long-range models are in agreement in bringing a cold front thru the
area, courtesy of an upper trough forecast to dig into the MS
Valley.  This should knock temps down to below-normal Sunday, and
scour excess moisture from the area.  We`ve raised POPs Saturday
night for fropa.

Only other concerns are the Rio Grande, where releases from Luis
Leon may aggravate things later in the week.  Stay tuned.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 161139
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
639 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect falling cigs as low clouds over the South Plains hiding
under extensive mid cloud deck move south. Will see development
of MVFR cigs and vsbys as some fog forms.  Best chance of rain/storms
will be at CNM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, under perpetually OVC skies.  Sfc obs show a weak cold
front in the S. Plains, but models stall it just north of the FA
this morning.  To the SW, T.S. Odile was nearly halfway up the Baja
peninsula, and looks to be the source region for rainfall the next
few days.  KMAF 00Z RAOB came in w/a pwats of 1.67", which is about 2
STD DEVs from normal for this time of year.  Models maintain these
high pwats thru at least Saturday night, w/Tds at KMAF remaining at
64F or better during the duration.  Expect current convection to
develop further and intensify today as a vort band from Odile
develops into the area from the west and over the top of the upper
ridge to the south.  Considered issuing a FFA for wrn zones today,
but would rather wait until Odile has made her turn to the NE.
Otherwise, models keep breaking off disturbances from Odile over the
next few days, and sending them E-SE thru the region.  Given
saturated soils from last week`s rains, FFG area-wide will remain
low, and the flash flood threat will be the main concern.  We`ll
continue to emphasize this in the HWO for now, as well as an SPS.

For temps, overcast skies look to dominate most of this forecast,
w/plenty of mid/high lvl moisture spinning off Odile.  Thus, we`ve
generally narrowed the diurnal spread of the MOS numbers, w/H85 temp
trends and forecast soundings suggesting staying closer to the
warmer GFS as opposed to the cooler ECMWF.  Saturday night,
long-range models are in agreement in bringing a cold front thru the
area, courtesy of an upper trough forecast to dig into the MS
Valley.  This should knock temps down to below-normal Sunday, and
scour excess moisture from the area.  We`ve raised POPs Saturday
night for fropa.

Only other concerns are the Rio Grande, where releases from Luis
Leon may aggravate things later in the week.  Stay tuned.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
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000
FXUS64 KBRO 161136
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ON SHORE IS OVER THE RANCHLANDS AND NEAR MFE. AS THE
WAVE MOVES FURTHER INLAND IT IS EXPECTED THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT BRO AND HRL. BEST WINDOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN IS LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST THIS EVENING WITH
PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT THROUGH END OF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR CELL MOVEMENT BELIEVE THAT APEX OF TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
INLAND WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHERLY AND SHOWERS OVER
BROOKS COUNTY MOVING SOUTHWESTERLY. ITS FAIRLY MOIST OUT THERE AS WELL
WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING REVEALING A PWAT OF 2.58 INCHES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO DEPICTS 2.6 INCH PWAT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
UP TOWARDS CORPUS CHRISTI. 500 MB SHEAR LINE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AS OF THIS
WRITING...BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA /BROOKS AND KENEDY/ AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
TYPICAL STREAMER ACTIVITY INCREASING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY...WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SHOWERS GOING WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EXPECTED AS TIME GOES ON TODAY.

WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL SLOWLY FALL ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WAVE BUT NOT BY MUCH /2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING/. LIKELY
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY DESPITE MOST MOS POPS ARE WELL BELOW OUR
FORECAST. COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS AND HIGH PWATS
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE TO STAY THE COURSE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND NOT ROLL BACK POPS. FOR TONIGHT BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE OUT WEST EARLY THEN BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TO WEST
THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
..TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT /UNDER MOST IF NOT ALL
MOS GUIDANCE/. USED PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS AS A GUIDE AND HAVE MID TO
UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE...A LITTLE HIGHER OUT WEST WHERE SUN MAY BREAK
THROUGH CLOUD CANOPY. CLOUDS WONT BE AS ABUNDANT ON WEDNESDAY SO
EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER /AROUND 90 EAST TO MIDDLE 90S
WEST/.

CONCERNING AMOUNTS...GENERALLY SPEAKING ONE HALF INCH UPWARD TO ONE
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAISED
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT AS MOST MODELS DOWNPLAYING AMOUNTS BASED ON LOWER
POP CHANCES. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF HIDALGO AND CAMERON COUNTIES /WITH STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS
BEING CLOSED FROM TIME TO TIME AND SOIL MOISTURE MAXIMIZED LEADING
TO MOSTLY RUNOFF TODAY AND WITHIN URBAN AREAS/...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM.

LONG TERM...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS OVER COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL FIND ITS WAY EAST TO CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS UNDER ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING...AND WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONT MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW UPON REACHING THE
GULF...AND LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL EASE...BUT NOT END COMPLETELY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MOST OF IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE GULF FOR NOW. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE GET PICKED UP BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK...MARITIME POLAR AIR WILL CHASE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROPELLING A FRONT INTO TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY...CREATING A
TRIFECTA OF SORTS BY BLENDING IN WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EVENTUALLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THAT WILL BE JUST AFTER MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EDGING SLOWLY DOWN JUST A BIT...JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO...AS SEPTEMBER PROGRESSES...AND FCST VALUES WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
SUIT...BUT WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL
WEIGH IN AT PARTLY CLOUDY OR MORE MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WINDS MORE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A FRONT.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE...
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE
IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF...SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WEST GULF AND BY A BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER WEST. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST. THUS...THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL DICTATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNSTABLE AND UNSETTLED...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND DISRUPTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AS WELL AS PROVIDING
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW MORE STABLE PERIODS WILL OCCUR FRI
AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...BUT THE TROPICAL SHOWER MACHINE DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN FOR NOW.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55






000
FXUS64 KBRO 161136
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ON SHORE IS OVER THE RANCHLANDS AND NEAR MFE. AS THE
WAVE MOVES FURTHER INLAND IT IS EXPECTED THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT BRO AND HRL. BEST WINDOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN IS LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST THIS EVENING WITH
PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT THROUGH END OF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR CELL MOVEMENT BELIEVE THAT APEX OF TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
INLAND WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHERLY AND SHOWERS OVER
BROOKS COUNTY MOVING SOUTHWESTERLY. ITS FAIRLY MOIST OUT THERE AS WELL
WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING REVEALING A PWAT OF 2.58 INCHES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO DEPICTS 2.6 INCH PWAT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
UP TOWARDS CORPUS CHRISTI. 500 MB SHEAR LINE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AS OF THIS
WRITING...BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA /BROOKS AND KENEDY/ AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
TYPICAL STREAMER ACTIVITY INCREASING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY...WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SHOWERS GOING WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EXPECTED AS TIME GOES ON TODAY.

WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL SLOWLY FALL ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WAVE BUT NOT BY MUCH /2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING/. LIKELY
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY DESPITE MOST MOS POPS ARE WELL BELOW OUR
FORECAST. COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS AND HIGH PWATS
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE TO STAY THE COURSE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND NOT ROLL BACK POPS. FOR TONIGHT BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE OUT WEST EARLY THEN BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TO WEST
THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
..TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT /UNDER MOST IF NOT ALL
MOS GUIDANCE/. USED PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS AS A GUIDE AND HAVE MID TO
UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE...A LITTLE HIGHER OUT WEST WHERE SUN MAY BREAK
THROUGH CLOUD CANOPY. CLOUDS WONT BE AS ABUNDANT ON WEDNESDAY SO
EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER /AROUND 90 EAST TO MIDDLE 90S
WEST/.

CONCERNING AMOUNTS...GENERALLY SPEAKING ONE HALF INCH UPWARD TO ONE
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAISED
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT AS MOST MODELS DOWNPLAYING AMOUNTS BASED ON LOWER
POP CHANCES. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF HIDALGO AND CAMERON COUNTIES /WITH STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS
BEING CLOSED FROM TIME TO TIME AND SOIL MOISTURE MAXIMIZED LEADING
TO MOSTLY RUNOFF TODAY AND WITHIN URBAN AREAS/...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM.

LONG TERM...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS OVER COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL FIND ITS WAY EAST TO CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS UNDER ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING...AND WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONT MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW UPON REACHING THE
GULF...AND LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL EASE...BUT NOT END COMPLETELY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MOST OF IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE GULF FOR NOW. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE GET PICKED UP BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK...MARITIME POLAR AIR WILL CHASE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROPELLING A FRONT INTO TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY...CREATING A
TRIFECTA OF SORTS BY BLENDING IN WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EVENTUALLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THAT WILL BE JUST AFTER MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EDGING SLOWLY DOWN JUST A BIT...JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO...AS SEPTEMBER PROGRESSES...AND FCST VALUES WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
SUIT...BUT WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL
WEIGH IN AT PARTLY CLOUDY OR MORE MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WINDS MORE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A FRONT.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE...
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE
IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF...SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WEST GULF AND BY A BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER WEST. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST. THUS...THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL DICTATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNSTABLE AND UNSETTLED...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND DISRUPTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AS WELL AS PROVIDING
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW MORE STABLE PERIODS WILL OCCUR FRI
AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...BUT THE TROPICAL SHOWER MACHINE DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN FOR NOW.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55






000
FXUS64 KBRO 161136
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ON SHORE IS OVER THE RANCHLANDS AND NEAR MFE. AS THE
WAVE MOVES FURTHER INLAND IT IS EXPECTED THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT BRO AND HRL. BEST WINDOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN IS LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST THIS EVENING WITH
PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT THROUGH END OF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR CELL MOVEMENT BELIEVE THAT APEX OF TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
INLAND WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHERLY AND SHOWERS OVER
BROOKS COUNTY MOVING SOUTHWESTERLY. ITS FAIRLY MOIST OUT THERE AS WELL
WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING REVEALING A PWAT OF 2.58 INCHES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO DEPICTS 2.6 INCH PWAT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
UP TOWARDS CORPUS CHRISTI. 500 MB SHEAR LINE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AS OF THIS
WRITING...BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA /BROOKS AND KENEDY/ AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
TYPICAL STREAMER ACTIVITY INCREASING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY...WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SHOWERS GOING WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EXPECTED AS TIME GOES ON TODAY.

WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL SLOWLY FALL ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WAVE BUT NOT BY MUCH /2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING/. LIKELY
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY DESPITE MOST MOS POPS ARE WELL BELOW OUR
FORECAST. COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS AND HIGH PWATS
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE TO STAY THE COURSE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND NOT ROLL BACK POPS. FOR TONIGHT BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE OUT WEST EARLY THEN BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TO WEST
THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
..TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT /UNDER MOST IF NOT ALL
MOS GUIDANCE/. USED PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS AS A GUIDE AND HAVE MID TO
UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE...A LITTLE HIGHER OUT WEST WHERE SUN MAY BREAK
THROUGH CLOUD CANOPY. CLOUDS WONT BE AS ABUNDANT ON WEDNESDAY SO
EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER /AROUND 90 EAST TO MIDDLE 90S
WEST/.

CONCERNING AMOUNTS...GENERALLY SPEAKING ONE HALF INCH UPWARD TO ONE
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAISED
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT AS MOST MODELS DOWNPLAYING AMOUNTS BASED ON LOWER
POP CHANCES. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF HIDALGO AND CAMERON COUNTIES /WITH STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS
BEING CLOSED FROM TIME TO TIME AND SOIL MOISTURE MAXIMIZED LEADING
TO MOSTLY RUNOFF TODAY AND WITHIN URBAN AREAS/...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM.

LONG TERM...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS OVER COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL FIND ITS WAY EAST TO CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS UNDER ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING...AND WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONT MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW UPON REACHING THE
GULF...AND LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL EASE...BUT NOT END COMPLETELY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MOST OF IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE GULF FOR NOW. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE GET PICKED UP BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK...MARITIME POLAR AIR WILL CHASE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROPELLING A FRONT INTO TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY...CREATING A
TRIFECTA OF SORTS BY BLENDING IN WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EVENTUALLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THAT WILL BE JUST AFTER MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EDGING SLOWLY DOWN JUST A BIT...JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO...AS SEPTEMBER PROGRESSES...AND FCST VALUES WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
SUIT...BUT WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL
WEIGH IN AT PARTLY CLOUDY OR MORE MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WINDS MORE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A FRONT.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE...
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE
IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF...SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WEST GULF AND BY A BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER WEST. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST. THUS...THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL DICTATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNSTABLE AND UNSETTLED...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND DISRUPTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AS WELL AS PROVIDING
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW MORE STABLE PERIODS WILL OCCUR FRI
AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...BUT THE TROPICAL SHOWER MACHINE DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN FOR NOW.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55






000
FXUS64 KBRO 161136
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ON SHORE IS OVER THE RANCHLANDS AND NEAR MFE. AS THE
WAVE MOVES FURTHER INLAND IT IS EXPECTED THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT BRO AND HRL. BEST WINDOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN IS LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM EAST TO WEST THIS EVENING WITH
PREVAILING VFR TONIGHT THROUGH END OF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR CELL MOVEMENT BELIEVE THAT APEX OF TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
INLAND WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHERLY AND SHOWERS OVER
BROOKS COUNTY MOVING SOUTHWESTERLY. ITS FAIRLY MOIST OUT THERE AS WELL
WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING REVEALING A PWAT OF 2.58 INCHES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO DEPICTS 2.6 INCH PWAT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
UP TOWARDS CORPUS CHRISTI. 500 MB SHEAR LINE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AS OF THIS
WRITING...BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA /BROOKS AND KENEDY/ AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
TYPICAL STREAMER ACTIVITY INCREASING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY...WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SHOWERS GOING WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EXPECTED AS TIME GOES ON TODAY.

WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL SLOWLY FALL ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WAVE BUT NOT BY MUCH /2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING/. LIKELY
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY DESPITE MOST MOS POPS ARE WELL BELOW OUR
FORECAST. COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS AND HIGH PWATS
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE TO STAY THE COURSE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND NOT ROLL BACK POPS. FOR TONIGHT BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE OUT WEST EARLY THEN BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TO WEST
THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
..TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT /UNDER MOST IF NOT ALL
MOS GUIDANCE/. USED PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS AS A GUIDE AND HAVE MID TO
UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE...A LITTLE HIGHER OUT WEST WHERE SUN MAY BREAK
THROUGH CLOUD CANOPY. CLOUDS WONT BE AS ABUNDANT ON WEDNESDAY SO
EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER /AROUND 90 EAST TO MIDDLE 90S
WEST/.

CONCERNING AMOUNTS...GENERALLY SPEAKING ONE HALF INCH UPWARD TO ONE
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAISED
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT AS MOST MODELS DOWNPLAYING AMOUNTS BASED ON LOWER
POP CHANCES. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF HIDALGO AND CAMERON COUNTIES /WITH STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS
BEING CLOSED FROM TIME TO TIME AND SOIL MOISTURE MAXIMIZED LEADING
TO MOSTLY RUNOFF TODAY AND WITHIN URBAN AREAS/...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM.

LONG TERM...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS OVER COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL FIND ITS WAY EAST TO CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS UNDER ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING...AND WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONT MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW UPON REACHING THE
GULF...AND LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL EASE...BUT NOT END COMPLETELY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MOST OF IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE GULF FOR NOW. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE GET PICKED UP BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK...MARITIME POLAR AIR WILL CHASE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROPELLING A FRONT INTO TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY...CREATING A
TRIFECTA OF SORTS BY BLENDING IN WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EVENTUALLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THAT WILL BE JUST AFTER MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EDGING SLOWLY DOWN JUST A BIT...JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO...AS SEPTEMBER PROGRESSES...AND FCST VALUES WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
SUIT...BUT WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL
WEIGH IN AT PARTLY CLOUDY OR MORE MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WINDS MORE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A FRONT.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE...
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE
IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF...SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WEST GULF AND BY A BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER WEST. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST. THUS...THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL DICTATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNSTABLE AND UNSETTLED...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND DISRUPTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AS WELL AS PROVIDING
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW MORE STABLE PERIODS WILL OCCUR FRI
AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...BUT THE TROPICAL SHOWER MACHINE DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN FOR NOW.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55






000
FXUS64 KLUB 161131
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING BY 18Z. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED TS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO KEEP PRIMARY RAIN
CHANCES SW OF KLBB. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN FIRST 9 HOURS OF THE FCST
WILL REMOVE SHOWER MENTION AND REEVALUATE AT 18Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM IT. MODELS
PROG A MODEST UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
IT IS HARD TO VERIFY THAT AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ODILE. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK...
THE JET STREAK MOVING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PULL UP
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS THERE WHILE THE NERN ZONES GETTING THE SHORT
END OF THE STICK...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FCST. PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES THIS AFTN MAINLY IN A
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BUT SPREAD OUT FAIRLY EVENLY THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING SUGGESTS SHOWERS
FAVORED BUT THUNDER NOT RULED OUT. FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WILL BE LEAST
LIKELY TO WORK OUT ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO BE THINNEST AND RAIN CHANCES THE LEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE DOMINATING ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WEST TO NEAR FAR SWRN TX/NERN OLD MEXICO BY MID-WEEK...THUS CAUSING
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. OUR PERSISTENT
FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GO UNDISTURBED...AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRANSLATED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CAUSE PWATS TO GO ON THE RISE /1.20-1.80
INCHES BY MID-WEEK/. ODILE IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT BY WESTERLIES
ALOFT...AND EVOLVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES REGION BY LATE WEEK. THUS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE...COUPLED WITH A PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
TO RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK /HIGHEST POPS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION/. WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP EXITS THE REGION IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE AS LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE/S
SPEED. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
EAST OF THE FA BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE SRN ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THIS FRONT BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP...THOUGH THE SRN
AND ERN ZONES ARE HIGHLY FAVORED. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND IS A
TAD SLOWER...AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
ECMWF IN GENERAL TENDS TO BE A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM THAN THE GFS.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. AS SUCH...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

RB/TL





000
FXUS64 KCRP 161129 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
629 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12 AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING THE COASTAL SITES
FIRST BEFORE MOVING FURTHER INLAND. WILL EXPECT TO SEE A COVERAGE
TO DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. IN AND AROUND
ANY STORMS...GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AS WELL...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING MORE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...SLOWLY INCREASING AND
SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR STRATUS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER
INLAND THIS MORNING. PWATS ARE REACHING NEAR 2.5 INCHES PER THE
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE OMEGA FIELD
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DID INCREASE POPS FURTHER
NORTH DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW OF THE UPPER JET
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CWA. WITH NO OTHER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AROUND...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BECOME STRONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST AS HEATING IS LOST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A
SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID-80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PWATS OF 2 TO 2.25
INCHES ARE PROG TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...DIURNAL INSTABILITY...OCCASIONAL MID LEVEL DPVA FROM VORT
MAXES CAUGHT IN H5 NW FLOW...AND MODEST H25 DIFFLUENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN DECREASE SOME BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT REGARDING FROPA
TIMING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER /AND COOLER/ AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAST POST FRONTAL
DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
DOWNWARD FOR FOR END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEFORE THEN...MAX TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  76  89  76  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
VICTORIA          85  75  87  76  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
LAREDO            87  76  94  77  95  /  50  40  40  20  30
ALICE             86  75  90  75  92  /  70  30  50  20  50
ROCKPORT          84  79  89  78  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
COTULLA           89  75  92  76  94  /  40  40  40  20  30
KINGSVILLE        86  75  89  76  91  /  70  40  40  20  50
NAVY CORPUS       84  79  89  79  90  /  60  40  50  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 161129 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
629 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12 AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING THE COASTAL SITES
FIRST BEFORE MOVING FURTHER INLAND. WILL EXPECT TO SEE A COVERAGE
TO DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. IN AND AROUND
ANY STORMS...GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AS WELL...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING MORE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...SLOWLY INCREASING AND
SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR STRATUS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER
INLAND THIS MORNING. PWATS ARE REACHING NEAR 2.5 INCHES PER THE
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE OMEGA FIELD
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DID INCREASE POPS FURTHER
NORTH DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW OF THE UPPER JET
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CWA. WITH NO OTHER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AROUND...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BECOME STRONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST AS HEATING IS LOST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A
SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID-80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PWATS OF 2 TO 2.25
INCHES ARE PROG TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...DIURNAL INSTABILITY...OCCASIONAL MID LEVEL DPVA FROM VORT
MAXES CAUGHT IN H5 NW FLOW...AND MODEST H25 DIFFLUENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN DECREASE SOME BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT REGARDING FROPA
TIMING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER /AND COOLER/ AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAST POST FRONTAL
DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
DOWNWARD FOR FOR END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEFORE THEN...MAX TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  76  89  76  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
VICTORIA          85  75  87  76  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
LAREDO            87  76  94  77  95  /  50  40  40  20  30
ALICE             86  75  90  75  92  /  70  30  50  20  50
ROCKPORT          84  79  89  78  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
COTULLA           89  75  92  76  94  /  40  40  40  20  30
KINGSVILLE        86  75  89  76  91  /  70  40  40  20  50
NAVY CORPUS       84  79  89  79  90  /  60  40  50  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KAMA 161122 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS WITH IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AT KAMA AND KDHT...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KGUY.  BY AFTERNOON...SOUTH SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ASSISTING IN THE
EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE REMAIN FOCUSED UPON THE POTENTIAL
FOR WEATHER IMPACTS EMANATING FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES YESTERDAY HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CORE OF A PARENT
1020 MB SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TODAY...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES BY AFTERNOON AND
MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.

BY FAR THE MOST OBVIOUS WEATHER FEATURE APPARENT IN CURRENT VAPOR
IMAGERY IS THE IMMENSE UPPER AIR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE. SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAS ALREADY EDGED NORTHEASTWARD OVER WEST
TEXAS...AND WILL REMAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN THE DAYS AHEAD...CONTRIBUTING TO A DAILY MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RECENT NWP HAS DONE
LITTLE TO INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE HANDLING OF ODILE/S
REMNANTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE
DEPICTED A GENERAL SHEARING OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A FEW HAVE TRANSLATED THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MORE DIRECT IMPACT FROM ODILE AND
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS PLAINS CENTERED ON THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD MATERIALIZE. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE
40 PERCENT GRIDDED POPS OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

A COHERENT SIGNAL REMAINS FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IF ANY MOISTURE RECEIVED FROM ODILE WOULD STILL BE LINGERING.
IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHER RAIN/STORM CHANCES MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH LATER UPDATES.

LINDLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                81  63  85  62  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
BEAVER OK                  83  66  90  65  90 /  10  10   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              83  60  86  60  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
BORGER TX                  84  66  88  64  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              81  63  86  62  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
CANYON TX                  78  62  84  62  83 /  20  20  20  20  30
CLARENDON TX               80  66  85  64  85 /  20  10  20  10  20
DALHART TX                 82  60  86  60  83 /  20  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  85  63  89  63  89 /  10  10  10   5  10
HEREFORD TX                78  62  83  60  81 /  20  20  30  20  30
LIPSCOMB TX                83  66  88  65  89 /  10  10  10   5  10
PAMPA TX                   82  65  85  63  86 /  20  10  10  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                82  66  87  65  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
WELLINGTON TX              81  67  87  65  88 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10






000
FXUS64 KAMA 161122 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS WITH IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AT KAMA AND KDHT...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KGUY.  BY AFTERNOON...SOUTH SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 KT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ASSISTING IN THE
EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE REMAIN FOCUSED UPON THE POTENTIAL
FOR WEATHER IMPACTS EMANATING FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES YESTERDAY HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CORE OF A PARENT
1020 MB SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TODAY...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES BY AFTERNOON AND
MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.

BY FAR THE MOST OBVIOUS WEATHER FEATURE APPARENT IN CURRENT VAPOR
IMAGERY IS THE IMMENSE UPPER AIR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE. SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAS ALREADY EDGED NORTHEASTWARD OVER WEST
TEXAS...AND WILL REMAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN THE DAYS AHEAD...CONTRIBUTING TO A DAILY MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RECENT NWP HAS DONE
LITTLE TO INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE HANDLING OF ODILE/S
REMNANTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE
DEPICTED A GENERAL SHEARING OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A FEW HAVE TRANSLATED THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MORE DIRECT IMPACT FROM ODILE AND
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS PLAINS CENTERED ON THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD MATERIALIZE. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE
40 PERCENT GRIDDED POPS OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

A COHERENT SIGNAL REMAINS FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IF ANY MOISTURE RECEIVED FROM ODILE WOULD STILL BE LINGERING.
IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHER RAIN/STORM CHANCES MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH LATER UPDATES.

LINDLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                81  63  85  62  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
BEAVER OK                  83  66  90  65  90 /  10  10   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              83  60  86  60  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
BORGER TX                  84  66  88  64  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              81  63  86  62  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
CANYON TX                  78  62  84  62  83 /  20  20  20  20  30
CLARENDON TX               80  66  85  64  85 /  20  10  20  10  20
DALHART TX                 82  60  86  60  83 /  20  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  85  63  89  63  89 /  10  10  10   5  10
HEREFORD TX                78  62  83  60  81 /  20  20  30  20  30
LIPSCOMB TX                83  66  88  65  89 /  10  10  10   5  10
PAMPA TX                   82  65  85  63  86 /  20  10  10  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                82  66  87  65  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
WELLINGTON TX              81  67  87  65  88 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10





000
FXUS64 KHGX 161031
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
531 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PATTERN FOR SE TX THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT FEATURES COMBINE/INTERACT AND GIVE US A
RATHER WET FCST. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST-
ERLY WAVE MOVING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING (AS EVIDENT BY THE PCPN
DEVELOPING/TRACKING INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS). THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE (2-2.3" PWS) FCST TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS THE GULF REMAINS WIDE OPEN. OVER THE NRN COUNTIES WE
ARE STILL SEEING RADAR ECHOES (LIGHT PCPN) STREAMING ACROSS FROM
THE W/NW...PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE (WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCA-
TED OVER THE MID CALI BAJA). THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL EVENTUAL-
LY GET CAUGHT UP INTO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW AND BEGIN MOVING ENEWD
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRAS TODAY AND TOMORROW. ELEVATED POPS COULD STAY
IN PLACE THROUGH THUR GIVEN THE PROGGED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE VAR-
IOUS SYSTEMS. LOOKING AHEAD...EXTENDED MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS LATE SUN/EARLY MON SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE RAINS. 41

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING ON THE SW FLANK OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING THEN AS TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE SHEARS OUT EXPECT THE AXIS OF CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT
WEST AND NORTH WITH COVERAGE DECREASING IN THE EVENING. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE BAYS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASE A LITTLE TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GFS AND ECMWF
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY LATE OR EARLY TUESDAY...MAY REACH SCEC IN
THE WAKE AS FRONT MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. 45

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT THAT TODAY THE TERMINALS WILL BE PLAGUED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN FROM THE COAST THIS
MORNING AND THEN DEVELOPING INLAND AND MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  74  91  74  90 /  50  30  50  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  75  92  74  91 /  60  30  60  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  79  89  79  88 /  60  40  60  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 161031
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
531 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PATTERN FOR SE TX THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT FEATURES COMBINE/INTERACT AND GIVE US A
RATHER WET FCST. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST-
ERLY WAVE MOVING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING (AS EVIDENT BY THE PCPN
DEVELOPING/TRACKING INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS). THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE (2-2.3" PWS) FCST TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS THE GULF REMAINS WIDE OPEN. OVER THE NRN COUNTIES WE
ARE STILL SEEING RADAR ECHOES (LIGHT PCPN) STREAMING ACROSS FROM
THE W/NW...PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE (WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCA-
TED OVER THE MID CALI BAJA). THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL EVENTUAL-
LY GET CAUGHT UP INTO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW AND BEGIN MOVING ENEWD
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRAS TODAY AND TOMORROW. ELEVATED POPS COULD STAY
IN PLACE THROUGH THUR GIVEN THE PROGGED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE VAR-
IOUS SYSTEMS. LOOKING AHEAD...EXTENDED MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS LATE SUN/EARLY MON SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE RAINS. 41

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING ON THE SW FLANK OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING THEN AS TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE SHEARS OUT EXPECT THE AXIS OF CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT
WEST AND NORTH WITH COVERAGE DECREASING IN THE EVENING. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE BAYS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASE A LITTLE TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GFS AND ECMWF
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY LATE OR EARLY TUESDAY...MAY REACH SCEC IN
THE WAKE AS FRONT MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. 45

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT THAT TODAY THE TERMINALS WILL BE PLAGUED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN FROM THE COAST THIS
MORNING AND THEN DEVELOPING INLAND AND MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  74  91  74  90 /  50  30  50  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  75  92  74  91 /  60  30  60  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  79  89  79  88 /  60  40  60  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 161031
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
531 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PATTERN FOR SE TX THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT FEATURES COMBINE/INTERACT AND GIVE US A
RATHER WET FCST. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST-
ERLY WAVE MOVING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING (AS EVIDENT BY THE PCPN
DEVELOPING/TRACKING INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS). THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE (2-2.3" PWS) FCST TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS THE GULF REMAINS WIDE OPEN. OVER THE NRN COUNTIES WE
ARE STILL SEEING RADAR ECHOES (LIGHT PCPN) STREAMING ACROSS FROM
THE W/NW...PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE (WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCA-
TED OVER THE MID CALI BAJA). THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL EVENTUAL-
LY GET CAUGHT UP INTO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW AND BEGIN MOVING ENEWD
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRAS TODAY AND TOMORROW. ELEVATED POPS COULD STAY
IN PLACE THROUGH THUR GIVEN THE PROGGED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE VAR-
IOUS SYSTEMS. LOOKING AHEAD...EXTENDED MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS LATE SUN/EARLY MON SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE RAINS. 41

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING ON THE SW FLANK OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING THEN AS TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE SHEARS OUT EXPECT THE AXIS OF CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT
WEST AND NORTH WITH COVERAGE DECREASING IN THE EVENING. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE BAYS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASE A LITTLE TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GFS AND ECMWF
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY LATE OR EARLY TUESDAY...MAY REACH SCEC IN
THE WAKE AS FRONT MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. 45

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT THAT TODAY THE TERMINALS WILL BE PLAGUED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN FROM THE COAST THIS
MORNING AND THEN DEVELOPING INLAND AND MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  74  91  74  90 /  50  30  50  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  75  92  74  91 /  60  30  60  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  79  89  79  88 /  60  40  60  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 161031
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
531 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PATTERN FOR SE TX THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT FEATURES COMBINE/INTERACT AND GIVE US A
RATHER WET FCST. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST-
ERLY WAVE MOVING INTO SE TX THIS MORNING (AS EVIDENT BY THE PCPN
DEVELOPING/TRACKING INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS). THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE (2-2.3" PWS) FCST TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS THE GULF REMAINS WIDE OPEN. OVER THE NRN COUNTIES WE
ARE STILL SEEING RADAR ECHOES (LIGHT PCPN) STREAMING ACROSS FROM
THE W/NW...PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE (WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCA-
TED OVER THE MID CALI BAJA). THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL EVENTUAL-
LY GET CAUGHT UP INTO THE MAIN UPPER FLOW AND BEGIN MOVING ENEWD
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRAS TODAY AND TOMORROW. ELEVATED POPS COULD STAY
IN PLACE THROUGH THUR GIVEN THE PROGGED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE VAR-
IOUS SYSTEMS. LOOKING AHEAD...EXTENDED MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE ARRIVAL OF
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS LATE SUN/EARLY MON SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THE RAINS. 41

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS DEVELOPING AND CONTINUING ON THE SW FLANK OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING WITH WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING THEN AS TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE SHEARS OUT EXPECT THE AXIS OF CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT
WEST AND NORTH WITH COVERAGE DECREASING IN THE EVENING. LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE BAYS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASE A LITTLE TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. GFS AND ECMWF
GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY LATE OR EARLY TUESDAY...MAY REACH SCEC IN
THE WAKE AS FRONT MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. 45

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT THAT TODAY THE TERMINALS WILL BE PLAGUED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN FROM THE COAST THIS
MORNING AND THEN DEVELOPING INLAND AND MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      92  74  91  74  90 /  50  30  50  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  75  92  74  91 /  60  30  60  30  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  79  89  79  88 /  60  40  60  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KCRP 160950
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
450 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER
INLAND THIS MORNING. PWATS ARE REACHING NEAR 2.5 INCHES PER THE
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE OMEGA FIELD
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DID INCREASE POPS FURTHER
NORTH DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW OF THE UPPER JET
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CWA. WITH NO OTHER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AROUND...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BECOME STRONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST AS HEATING IS LOST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A
SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID-80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PWATS OF 2 TO 2.25
INCHES ARE PROG TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...DIURNAL INSTABILITY...OCCASIONAL MID LEVEL DPVA FROM VORT
MAXES CAUGHT IN H5 NW FLOW...AND MODEST H25 DIFLUENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN DECREASE SOME BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT REGARDING FROPA
TIMING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER /AND COOLER/ AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAST POST FRONTAL
DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
DOWNWARD FOR FOR END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEFORE THEN...MAX TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  76  89  76  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
VICTORIA          85  75  87  76  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
LAREDO            87  76  94  77  95  /  50  40  40  20  30
ALICE             86  75  90  75  92  /  70  30  50  20  50
ROCKPORT          84  79  89  78  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
COTULLA           89  75  92  76  94  /  40  40  40  20  30
KINGSVILLE        86  75  89  76  91  /  70  40  40  20  50
NAVY CORPUS       84  79  89  79  90  /  60  40  50  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 160950
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
450 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER
INLAND THIS MORNING. PWATS ARE REACHING NEAR 2.5 INCHES PER THE
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE OMEGA FIELD
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DID INCREASE POPS FURTHER
NORTH DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW OF THE UPPER JET
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CWA. WITH NO OTHER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AROUND...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BECOME STRONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST AS HEATING IS LOST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A
SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID-80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PWATS OF 2 TO 2.25
INCHES ARE PROG TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...DIURNAL INSTABILITY...OCCASIONAL MID LEVEL DPVA FROM VORT
MAXES CAUGHT IN H5 NW FLOW...AND MODEST H25 DIFLUENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN DECREASE SOME BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT REGARDING FROPA
TIMING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER /AND COOLER/ AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAST POST FRONTAL
DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
DOWNWARD FOR FOR END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEFORE THEN...MAX TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  76  89  76  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
VICTORIA          85  75  87  76  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
LAREDO            87  76  94  77  95  /  50  40  40  20  30
ALICE             86  75  90  75  92  /  70  30  50  20  50
ROCKPORT          84  79  89  78  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
COTULLA           89  75  92  76  94  /  40  40  40  20  30
KINGSVILLE        86  75  89  76  91  /  70  40  40  20  50
NAVY CORPUS       84  79  89  79  90  /  60  40  50  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 160950
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
450 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER
INLAND THIS MORNING. PWATS ARE REACHING NEAR 2.5 INCHES PER THE
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE OMEGA FIELD
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DID INCREASE POPS FURTHER
NORTH DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW OF THE UPPER JET
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CWA. WITH NO OTHER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AROUND...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BECOME STRONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST AS HEATING IS LOST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A
SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID-80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PWATS OF 2 TO 2.25
INCHES ARE PROG TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...DIURNAL INSTABILITY...OCCASIONAL MID LEVEL DPVA FROM VORT
MAXES CAUGHT IN H5 NW FLOW...AND MODEST H25 DIFLUENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN DECREASE SOME BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT REGARDING FROPA
TIMING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER /AND COOLER/ AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAST POST FRONTAL
DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
DOWNWARD FOR FOR END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEFORE THEN...MAX TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  76  89  76  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
VICTORIA          85  75  87  76  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
LAREDO            87  76  94  77  95  /  50  40  40  20  30
ALICE             86  75  90  75  92  /  70  30  50  20  50
ROCKPORT          84  79  89  78  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
COTULLA           89  75  92  76  94  /  40  40  40  20  30
KINGSVILLE        86  75  89  76  91  /  70  40  40  20  50
NAVY CORPUS       84  79  89  79  90  /  60  40  50  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 160950
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
450 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER
INLAND THIS MORNING. PWATS ARE REACHING NEAR 2.5 INCHES PER THE
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE OMEGA FIELD
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DID INCREASE POPS FURTHER
NORTH DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW OF THE UPPER JET
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CWA. WITH NO OTHER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AROUND...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BECOME STRONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST AS HEATING IS LOST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A
SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID-80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PWATS OF 2 TO 2.25
INCHES ARE PROG TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...DIURNAL INSTABILITY...OCCASIONAL MID LEVEL DPVA FROM VORT
MAXES CAUGHT IN H5 NW FLOW...AND MODEST H25 DIFLUENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN DECREASE SOME BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT REGARDING FROPA
TIMING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER /AND COOLER/ AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAST POST FRONTAL
DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
DOWNWARD FOR FOR END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEFORE THEN...MAX TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  76  89  76  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
VICTORIA          85  75  87  76  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
LAREDO            87  76  94  77  95  /  50  40  40  20  30
ALICE             86  75  90  75  92  /  70  30  50  20  50
ROCKPORT          84  79  89  78  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
COTULLA           89  75  92  76  94  /  40  40  40  20  30
KINGSVILLE        86  75  89  76  91  /  70  40  40  20  50
NAVY CORPUS       84  79  89  79  90  /  60  40  50  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 160948
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
347 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA BUT IS ALREADY
PUSHING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE
BORDERLAND THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TODAY WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING. THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AS ODILE APPROACHES ARIZONA. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE
REMAINS OF ODILE SHOULD BE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ALLOW THE
HEAVIEST OF RAINFALL TO TAPER OFF. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY DRIER BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE JUST BELOW NORMAL
BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT COULD ALSO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM ODILE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA AND CONTINUES TO
DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST. SOME OF ITS BANDS OF SHOWERS BEGAN ROTATING
UP TO THE CWA LAST NIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
RIGHT NOW RAIN IS MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT IS SHOULD INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS PVA AND DIFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASE
WITH ODILE APPROACHING. THOUGH THE WEST MAY END UP WITH HEAVIER RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND MODIFIED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
AREAS TO BEGIN THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE SACS.

THE REMAINS OF ODILE WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A DEPRESSION AND THEN GO POST-TROPICAL AS IT REACHES
WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HEAVY RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
POINT...FINALLY TAPERING OFF SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH EX ODILE PASSES TO OUR EAST. FROM NOW
TIL THEN CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST. PW`S OF UP TO 1.6"
ARE PROGGED (THAT IS APPROACHING 200% OF NORMAL) THROUGH THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE FOR
A TROPICAL INFLUENCE. MUCAPES OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG TODAY INCREASE
TO 500-1000 J/KG AS MID LEVEL TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOL AND DON`T BECOME
WARMER TIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SO EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...BEST GUESS AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IS WIDESPREAD .50-1.50" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP
TO 3" WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHER TERRAIN EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST COULD RECEIVE 5" OR MORE WITH THE HELP OF UPSLOPE.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THOUGH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS LONG GONE...PW`S OF AROUND .9"-1.2" REMAIN...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT RIDGE TO CAP MOST CONVECTION BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL GOOD BET BOTH DAYS WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THOUGH GFS BRINGS PACIFIC TROUGH TO ARIZONA BOTH DAYS WHILE
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW MUCH FURTHER WEST. GFS SOLUTION ALLOWS BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS COULD INITIALLY
INCREASE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BUT GFS SHOWS AIRMASS
BECOMING FAIRLY STABLE LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 16/12Z - 17/12Z...
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC100 LAYERS 350. SCATTERED -SHRA BKN-OVC070 WITH
ISOLD 3-5SM -SHRA BR CIGS AOB 020. ADDITIONALLY...EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY AFT 17Z...WITH A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
SFC WINDS EAST 10-15 KTS. GUSTS TO 30 KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
GENERALLY LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HURRICANE ODILE WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIKELY PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF
ONE-HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 3
INCHES. SOUTH AND EAST EXPOSED TERRAIN COULD SEE RAINFALL UP TO 5
INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
ESPECIALLY OVER AND AROUND THE BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE
EXTENDED LATER TODAY TO COVER THURSDAY. MIN RH`S FOR THE LOWLANDS
WILL REMAIN FROM 48-58% THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE MIN RH`S FOR THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL REMAIN FROM 65-80% THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 78  67  80  68  82 /  70  70  50  70  60
SIERRA BLANCA           72  63  75  63  78 /  50  70  40  60  60
LAS CRUCES              77  65  79  65  80 /  70  70  50  70  60
ALAMOGORDO              78  66  80  64  81 /  50  60  80  60  60
CLOUDCROFT              60  51  58  49  61 /  70  70  80  70  70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   77  63  79  64  81 /  60  60  80  70  60
SILVER CITY             74  59  75  60  75 /  70  80  80  70  70
DEMING                  77  63  80  64  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
LORDSBURG               78  64  80  65  80 /  70  80  50  70  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      78  67  79  68  82 /  70  70  50  70  60
DELL CITY               79  65  79  65  82 /  50  70  50  60  60
FORT HANCOCK            79  64  80  67  84 /  50  70  50  80  60
LOMA LINDA              74  62  74  62  75 /  60  60  50  70  60
FABENS                  79  67  80  66  82 /  70  70  50  90  60
SANTA TERESA            78  65  79  66  81 /  70  70  50  70  60
WHITE SANDS HQ          76  65  77  65  80 /  70  70  50  70  60
JORNADA RANGE           77  61  79  62  81 /  70  70  70  70  60
HATCH                   76  63  77  64  80 /  70  70  70  70  60
COLUMBUS                78  67  79  65  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
OROGRANDE               76  66  77  66  79 /  70  60  50  70  60
MAYHILL                 67  55  67  54  69 /  70  70  80  70  70
MESCALERO               69  56  68  55  71 /  70  70  70  70  70
TIMBERON                67  54  66  52  68 /  70  70  80  70  70
WINSTON                 71  56  71  55  72 /  60  60  80  60  80
HILLSBORO               73  60  75  59  75 /  70  70  80  70  60
SPACEPORT               77  62  77  63  80 /  70  70  80  70  60
LAKE ROBERTS            73  56  74  55  75 /  70  80  80  70  80
HURLEY                  74  61  77  61  77 /  70  80  80  70  60
CLIFF                   75  55  77  54  78 /  70  80  80  70  80
MULE CREEK              72  52  76  51  76 /  60  80  60  70  80
FAYWOOD                 74  60  76  61  76 /  70  80  80  70  60
ANIMAS                  78  65  78  66  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
HACHITA                 78  61  80  62  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          77  61  79  62  83 /  70  80  50  70  60
CLOVERDALE              76  59  78  59  79 /  70  80  50  70  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

17 HEFNER








000
FXUS64 KEPZ 160948
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
347 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA BUT IS ALREADY
PUSHING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE
BORDERLAND THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TODAY WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING. THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AS ODILE APPROACHES ARIZONA. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE
REMAINS OF ODILE SHOULD BE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ALLOW THE
HEAVIEST OF RAINFALL TO TAPER OFF. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY DRIER BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE JUST BELOW NORMAL
BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT COULD ALSO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM ODILE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA AND CONTINUES TO
DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST. SOME OF ITS BANDS OF SHOWERS BEGAN ROTATING
UP TO THE CWA LAST NIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
RIGHT NOW RAIN IS MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT IS SHOULD INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS PVA AND DIFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASE
WITH ODILE APPROACHING. THOUGH THE WEST MAY END UP WITH HEAVIER RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND MODIFIED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
AREAS TO BEGIN THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE SACS.

THE REMAINS OF ODILE WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A DEPRESSION AND THEN GO POST-TROPICAL AS IT REACHES
WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HEAVY RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
POINT...FINALLY TAPERING OFF SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH EX ODILE PASSES TO OUR EAST. FROM NOW
TIL THEN CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST. PW`S OF UP TO 1.6"
ARE PROGGED (THAT IS APPROACHING 200% OF NORMAL) THROUGH THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE FOR
A TROPICAL INFLUENCE. MUCAPES OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG TODAY INCREASE
TO 500-1000 J/KG AS MID LEVEL TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOL AND DON`T BECOME
WARMER TIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SO EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...BEST GUESS AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IS WIDESPREAD .50-1.50" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP
TO 3" WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHER TERRAIN EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST COULD RECEIVE 5" OR MORE WITH THE HELP OF UPSLOPE.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THOUGH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS LONG GONE...PW`S OF AROUND .9"-1.2" REMAIN...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT RIDGE TO CAP MOST CONVECTION BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL GOOD BET BOTH DAYS WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THOUGH GFS BRINGS PACIFIC TROUGH TO ARIZONA BOTH DAYS WHILE
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW MUCH FURTHER WEST. GFS SOLUTION ALLOWS BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS COULD INITIALLY
INCREASE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BUT GFS SHOWS AIRMASS
BECOMING FAIRLY STABLE LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 16/12Z - 17/12Z...
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC100 LAYERS 350. SCATTERED -SHRA BKN-OVC070 WITH
ISOLD 3-5SM -SHRA BR CIGS AOB 020. ADDITIONALLY...EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY AFT 17Z...WITH A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
SFC WINDS EAST 10-15 KTS. GUSTS TO 30 KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
GENERALLY LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HURRICANE ODILE WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIKELY PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF
ONE-HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 3
INCHES. SOUTH AND EAST EXPOSED TERRAIN COULD SEE RAINFALL UP TO 5
INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
ESPECIALLY OVER AND AROUND THE BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE
EXTENDED LATER TODAY TO COVER THURSDAY. MIN RH`S FOR THE LOWLANDS
WILL REMAIN FROM 48-58% THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE MIN RH`S FOR THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL REMAIN FROM 65-80% THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 78  67  80  68  82 /  70  70  50  70  60
SIERRA BLANCA           72  63  75  63  78 /  50  70  40  60  60
LAS CRUCES              77  65  79  65  80 /  70  70  50  70  60
ALAMOGORDO              78  66  80  64  81 /  50  60  80  60  60
CLOUDCROFT              60  51  58  49  61 /  70  70  80  70  70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   77  63  79  64  81 /  60  60  80  70  60
SILVER CITY             74  59  75  60  75 /  70  80  80  70  70
DEMING                  77  63  80  64  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
LORDSBURG               78  64  80  65  80 /  70  80  50  70  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      78  67  79  68  82 /  70  70  50  70  60
DELL CITY               79  65  79  65  82 /  50  70  50  60  60
FORT HANCOCK            79  64  80  67  84 /  50  70  50  80  60
LOMA LINDA              74  62  74  62  75 /  60  60  50  70  60
FABENS                  79  67  80  66  82 /  70  70  50  90  60
SANTA TERESA            78  65  79  66  81 /  70  70  50  70  60
WHITE SANDS HQ          76  65  77  65  80 /  70  70  50  70  60
JORNADA RANGE           77  61  79  62  81 /  70  70  70  70  60
HATCH                   76  63  77  64  80 /  70  70  70  70  60
COLUMBUS                78  67  79  65  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
OROGRANDE               76  66  77  66  79 /  70  60  50  70  60
MAYHILL                 67  55  67  54  69 /  70  70  80  70  70
MESCALERO               69  56  68  55  71 /  70  70  70  70  70
TIMBERON                67  54  66  52  68 /  70  70  80  70  70
WINSTON                 71  56  71  55  72 /  60  60  80  60  80
HILLSBORO               73  60  75  59  75 /  70  70  80  70  60
SPACEPORT               77  62  77  63  80 /  70  70  80  70  60
LAKE ROBERTS            73  56  74  55  75 /  70  80  80  70  80
HURLEY                  74  61  77  61  77 /  70  80  80  70  60
CLIFF                   75  55  77  54  78 /  70  80  80  70  80
MULE CREEK              72  52  76  51  76 /  60  80  60  70  80
FAYWOOD                 74  60  76  61  76 /  70  80  80  70  60
ANIMAS                  78  65  78  66  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
HACHITA                 78  61  80  62  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          77  61  79  62  83 /  70  80  50  70  60
CLOVERDALE              76  59  78  59  79 /  70  80  50  70  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

17 HEFNER








000
FXUS64 KEPZ 160948
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
347 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA BUT IS ALREADY
PUSHING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE
BORDERLAND THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TODAY WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING. THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AS ODILE APPROACHES ARIZONA. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE
REMAINS OF ODILE SHOULD BE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ALLOW THE
HEAVIEST OF RAINFALL TO TAPER OFF. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY DRIER BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE JUST BELOW NORMAL
BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT COULD ALSO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM ODILE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA AND CONTINUES TO
DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST. SOME OF ITS BANDS OF SHOWERS BEGAN ROTATING
UP TO THE CWA LAST NIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
RIGHT NOW RAIN IS MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT IS SHOULD INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS PVA AND DIFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASE
WITH ODILE APPROACHING. THOUGH THE WEST MAY END UP WITH HEAVIER RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND MODIFIED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
AREAS TO BEGIN THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE SACS.

THE REMAINS OF ODILE WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A DEPRESSION AND THEN GO POST-TROPICAL AS IT REACHES
WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HEAVY RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
POINT...FINALLY TAPERING OFF SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH EX ODILE PASSES TO OUR EAST. FROM NOW
TIL THEN CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST. PW`S OF UP TO 1.6"
ARE PROGGED (THAT IS APPROACHING 200% OF NORMAL) THROUGH THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE FOR
A TROPICAL INFLUENCE. MUCAPES OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG TODAY INCREASE
TO 500-1000 J/KG AS MID LEVEL TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOL AND DON`T BECOME
WARMER TIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SO EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...BEST GUESS AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IS WIDESPREAD .50-1.50" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP
TO 3" WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHER TERRAIN EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST COULD RECEIVE 5" OR MORE WITH THE HELP OF UPSLOPE.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THOUGH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS LONG GONE...PW`S OF AROUND .9"-1.2" REMAIN...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT RIDGE TO CAP MOST CONVECTION BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL GOOD BET BOTH DAYS WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THOUGH GFS BRINGS PACIFIC TROUGH TO ARIZONA BOTH DAYS WHILE
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW MUCH FURTHER WEST. GFS SOLUTION ALLOWS BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS COULD INITIALLY
INCREASE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BUT GFS SHOWS AIRMASS
BECOMING FAIRLY STABLE LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 16/12Z - 17/12Z...
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC100 LAYERS 350. SCATTERED -SHRA BKN-OVC070 WITH
ISOLD 3-5SM -SHRA BR CIGS AOB 020. ADDITIONALLY...EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY AFT 17Z...WITH A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
SFC WINDS EAST 10-15 KTS. GUSTS TO 30 KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
GENERALLY LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HURRICANE ODILE WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIKELY PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF
ONE-HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 3
INCHES. SOUTH AND EAST EXPOSED TERRAIN COULD SEE RAINFALL UP TO 5
INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
ESPECIALLY OVER AND AROUND THE BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE
EXTENDED LATER TODAY TO COVER THURSDAY. MIN RH`S FOR THE LOWLANDS
WILL REMAIN FROM 48-58% THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE MIN RH`S FOR THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL REMAIN FROM 65-80% THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 78  67  80  68  82 /  70  70  50  70  60
SIERRA BLANCA           72  63  75  63  78 /  50  70  40  60  60
LAS CRUCES              77  65  79  65  80 /  70  70  50  70  60
ALAMOGORDO              78  66  80  64  81 /  50  60  80  60  60
CLOUDCROFT              60  51  58  49  61 /  70  70  80  70  70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   77  63  79  64  81 /  60  60  80  70  60
SILVER CITY             74  59  75  60  75 /  70  80  80  70  70
DEMING                  77  63  80  64  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
LORDSBURG               78  64  80  65  80 /  70  80  50  70  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      78  67  79  68  82 /  70  70  50  70  60
DELL CITY               79  65  79  65  82 /  50  70  50  60  60
FORT HANCOCK            79  64  80  67  84 /  50  70  50  80  60
LOMA LINDA              74  62  74  62  75 /  60  60  50  70  60
FABENS                  79  67  80  66  82 /  70  70  50  90  60
SANTA TERESA            78  65  79  66  81 /  70  70  50  70  60
WHITE SANDS HQ          76  65  77  65  80 /  70  70  50  70  60
JORNADA RANGE           77  61  79  62  81 /  70  70  70  70  60
HATCH                   76  63  77  64  80 /  70  70  70  70  60
COLUMBUS                78  67  79  65  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
OROGRANDE               76  66  77  66  79 /  70  60  50  70  60
MAYHILL                 67  55  67  54  69 /  70  70  80  70  70
MESCALERO               69  56  68  55  71 /  70  70  70  70  70
TIMBERON                67  54  66  52  68 /  70  70  80  70  70
WINSTON                 71  56  71  55  72 /  60  60  80  60  80
HILLSBORO               73  60  75  59  75 /  70  70  80  70  60
SPACEPORT               77  62  77  63  80 /  70  70  80  70  60
LAKE ROBERTS            73  56  74  55  75 /  70  80  80  70  80
HURLEY                  74  61  77  61  77 /  70  80  80  70  60
CLIFF                   75  55  77  54  78 /  70  80  80  70  80
MULE CREEK              72  52  76  51  76 /  60  80  60  70  80
FAYWOOD                 74  60  76  61  76 /  70  80  80  70  60
ANIMAS                  78  65  78  66  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
HACHITA                 78  61  80  62  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          77  61  79  62  83 /  70  80  50  70  60
CLOVERDALE              76  59  78  59  79 /  70  80  50  70  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

17 HEFNER








000
FXUS64 KEPZ 160948
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
347 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA BUT IS ALREADY
PUSHING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE
BORDERLAND THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY TODAY WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING. THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE AS ODILE APPROACHES ARIZONA. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE
REMAINS OF ODILE SHOULD BE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ALLOW THE
HEAVIEST OF RAINFALL TO TAPER OFF. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY DRIER BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE JUST BELOW NORMAL
BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE FRONT COULD ALSO INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM ODILE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA AND CONTINUES TO
DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST. SOME OF ITS BANDS OF SHOWERS BEGAN ROTATING
UP TO THE CWA LAST NIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
RIGHT NOW RAIN IS MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT IS SHOULD INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS PVA AND DIFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASE
WITH ODILE APPROACHING. THOUGH THE WEST MAY END UP WITH HEAVIER RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND MODIFIED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
AREAS TO BEGIN THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE SACS.

THE REMAINS OF ODILE WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A DEPRESSION AND THEN GO POST-TROPICAL AS IT REACHES
WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HEAVY RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
POINT...FINALLY TAPERING OFF SOME TIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH EX ODILE PASSES TO OUR EAST. FROM NOW
TIL THEN CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST. PW`S OF UP TO 1.6"
ARE PROGGED (THAT IS APPROACHING 200% OF NORMAL) THROUGH THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY UNSTABLE FOR
A TROPICAL INFLUENCE. MUCAPES OF LESS THAN 500 J/KG TODAY INCREASE
TO 500-1000 J/KG AS MID LEVEL TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOL AND DON`T BECOME
WARMER TIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SO EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...BEST GUESS AT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IS WIDESPREAD .50-1.50" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP
TO 3" WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHER TERRAIN EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST COULD RECEIVE 5" OR MORE WITH THE HELP OF UPSLOPE.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THOUGH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS LONG GONE...PW`S OF AROUND .9"-1.2" REMAIN...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT RIDGE TO CAP MOST CONVECTION BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL GOOD BET BOTH DAYS WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THOUGH GFS BRINGS PACIFIC TROUGH TO ARIZONA BOTH DAYS WHILE
ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW MUCH FURTHER WEST. GFS SOLUTION ALLOWS BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS COULD INITIALLY
INCREASE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT BUT GFS SHOWS AIRMASS
BECOMING FAIRLY STABLE LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 16/12Z - 17/12Z...
WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC100 LAYERS 350. SCATTERED -SHRA BKN-OVC070 WITH
ISOLD 3-5SM -SHRA BR CIGS AOB 020. ADDITIONALLY...EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY AFT 17Z...WITH A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
SFC WINDS EAST 10-15 KTS. GUSTS TO 30 KTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
GENERALLY LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HURRICANE ODILE WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIKELY PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF
ONE-HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 3
INCHES. SOUTH AND EAST EXPOSED TERRAIN COULD SEE RAINFALL UP TO 5
INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
ESPECIALLY OVER AND AROUND THE BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE
EXTENDED LATER TODAY TO COVER THURSDAY. MIN RH`S FOR THE LOWLANDS
WILL REMAIN FROM 48-58% THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE MIN RH`S FOR THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL REMAIN FROM 65-80% THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 78  67  80  68  82 /  70  70  50  70  60
SIERRA BLANCA           72  63  75  63  78 /  50  70  40  60  60
LAS CRUCES              77  65  79  65  80 /  70  70  50  70  60
ALAMOGORDO              78  66  80  64  81 /  50  60  80  60  60
CLOUDCROFT              60  51  58  49  61 /  70  70  80  70  70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   77  63  79  64  81 /  60  60  80  70  60
SILVER CITY             74  59  75  60  75 /  70  80  80  70  70
DEMING                  77  63  80  64  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
LORDSBURG               78  64  80  65  80 /  70  80  50  70  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      78  67  79  68  82 /  70  70  50  70  60
DELL CITY               79  65  79  65  82 /  50  70  50  60  60
FORT HANCOCK            79  64  80  67  84 /  50  70  50  80  60
LOMA LINDA              74  62  74  62  75 /  60  60  50  70  60
FABENS                  79  67  80  66  82 /  70  70  50  90  60
SANTA TERESA            78  65  79  66  81 /  70  70  50  70  60
WHITE SANDS HQ          76  65  77  65  80 /  70  70  50  70  60
JORNADA RANGE           77  61  79  62  81 /  70  70  70  70  60
HATCH                   76  63  77  64  80 /  70  70  70  70  60
COLUMBUS                78  67  79  65  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
OROGRANDE               76  66  77  66  79 /  70  60  50  70  60
MAYHILL                 67  55  67  54  69 /  70  70  80  70  70
MESCALERO               69  56  68  55  71 /  70  70  70  70  70
TIMBERON                67  54  66  52  68 /  70  70  80  70  70
WINSTON                 71  56  71  55  72 /  60  60  80  60  80
HILLSBORO               73  60  75  59  75 /  70  70  80  70  60
SPACEPORT               77  62  77  63  80 /  70  70  80  70  60
LAKE ROBERTS            73  56  74  55  75 /  70  80  80  70  80
HURLEY                  74  61  77  61  77 /  70  80  80  70  60
CLIFF                   75  55  77  54  78 /  70  80  80  70  80
MULE CREEK              72  52  76  51  76 /  60  80  60  70  80
FAYWOOD                 74  60  76  61  76 /  70  80  80  70  60
ANIMAS                  78  65  78  66  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
HACHITA                 78  61  80  62  82 /  70  80  50  70  60
ANTELOPE WELLS          77  61  79  62  83 /  70  80  50  70  60
CLOVERDALE              76  59  78  59  79 /  70  80  50  70  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

17 HEFNER








000
FXUS64 KBRO 160922
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
422 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR CELL MOVEMENT BELIEVE THAT APEX OF TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
INLAND WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHERLY AND SHOWERS OVER
BROOKS COUNTY MOVING SOUTHWESTERLY. ITS FAIRLY MOIST OUT THERE AS WELL
WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING REVEALING A PWAT OF 2.58 INCHES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO DEPICTS 2.6 INCH PWAT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
UP TOWARDS CORPUS CHRISTI. 500 MB SHEAR LINE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AS OF THIS
WRITING...BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA /BROOKS AND KENEDY/ AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
TYPICAL STREAMER ACTIVITY INCREASING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY...WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SHOWERS GOING WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EXPECTED AS TIME GOES ON TODAY.

WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL SLOWLY FALL ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WAVE BUT NOT BY MUCH /2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING/. LIKELY
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY DESPITE MOST MOS POPS ARE WELL BELOW OUR
FORECAST. COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS AND HIGH PWATS
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE TO STAY THE COURSE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND NOT ROLL BACK POPS. FOR TONIGHT BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE OUT WEST EARLY THEN BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TO WEST
THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT /UNDER MOST IF NOT ALL
MOS GUIDANCE/. USED PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS AS A GUIDE AND HAVE MID TO
UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE...A LITTLE HIGHER OUT WEST WHERE SUN MAY BREAK
THROUGH CLOUD CANOPY. CLOUDS WONT BE AS ABUNDANT ON WEDNESDAY SO
EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER /AROUND 90 EAST TO MIDDLE 90S
WEST/.

CONCERNING AMOUNTS...GENERALLY SPEAKING ONE HALF INCH UPWARD TO ONE
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAISED
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT AS MOST MODELS DOWNPLAYING AMOUNTS BASED ON LOWER
POP CHANCES. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF HIDALGO AND CAMERON COUNTIES /WITH STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS
BEING CLOSED FROM TIME TO TIME AND SOIL MOISTURE MAXIMIZED LEADING
TO MOSTLY RUNOFF TODAY AND WITHIN URBAN AREAS/...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM.

.LONG TERM...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS OVER COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL FIND ITS WAY EAST TO CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS UNDER ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING...AND WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONT MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW UPON REACHING THE
GULF...AND LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL EASE...BUT NOT END COMPLETELY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MOST OF IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE GULF FOR NOW. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE GET PICKED UP BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK...MARITIME POLAR AIR WILL CHASE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROPELLING A FRONT INTO TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY...CREATING A
TRIFECTA OF SORTS BY BLENDING IN WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EVENTUALLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THAT WILL BE JUST AFTER MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EDGING SLOWLY DOWN JUST A BIT...JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO...AS SEPTEMBER PROGRESSES...AND FCST VALUES WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
SUIT...BUT WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL
WEIGH IN AT PARTLY CLOUDY OR MORE MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WINDS MORE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE...
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE
IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF...SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WEST GULF AND BY A BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER WEST. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST. THUS...THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL DICTATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNSTABLE AND UNSETTLED...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND DISRUPTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AS WELL AS PROVIDING
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW MORE STABLE PERIODS WILL OCCUR FRI
AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...BUT THE TROPICAL SHOWER MACHINE DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  78  89  79 /  70  40  40  20
BROWNSVILLE          86  77  90  78 /  70  40  40  20
HARLINGEN            87  76  91  78 /  70  30  40  20
MCALLEN              87  77  92  78 /  70  30  40  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      86  76  94  77 /  60  40  40  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  79  87  80 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/54/CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KBRO 160922
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
422 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR CELL MOVEMENT BELIEVE THAT APEX OF TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
INLAND WITH SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHERLY AND SHOWERS OVER
BROOKS COUNTY MOVING SOUTHWESTERLY. ITS FAIRLY MOIST OUT THERE AS WELL
WITH 00Z BRO SOUNDING REVEALING A PWAT OF 2.58 INCHES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO DEPICTS 2.6 INCH PWAT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
UP TOWARDS CORPUS CHRISTI. 500 MB SHEAR LINE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AS OF THIS
WRITING...BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA /BROOKS AND KENEDY/ AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
TYPICAL STREAMER ACTIVITY INCREASING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
CURRENTLY...WONT TAKE MUCH TO GET SHOWERS GOING WITH AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EXPECTED AS TIME GOES ON TODAY.

WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL SLOWLY FALL ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WAVE BUT NOT BY MUCH /2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING/. LIKELY
POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY DESPITE MOST MOS POPS ARE WELL BELOW OUR
FORECAST. COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED ELEMENTS AND HIGH PWATS
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE TO STAY THE COURSE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND NOT ROLL BACK POPS. FOR TONIGHT BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE OUT WEST EARLY THEN BACK OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE. ONE OR TWO SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TO WEST
THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT /UNDER MOST IF NOT ALL
MOS GUIDANCE/. USED PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS AS A GUIDE AND HAVE MID TO
UPPER 80S EVERYWHERE...A LITTLE HIGHER OUT WEST WHERE SUN MAY BREAK
THROUGH CLOUD CANOPY. CLOUDS WONT BE AS ABUNDANT ON WEDNESDAY SO
EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER /AROUND 90 EAST TO MIDDLE 90S
WEST/.

CONCERNING AMOUNTS...GENERALLY SPEAKING ONE HALF INCH UPWARD TO ONE
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAISED
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT AS MOST MODELS DOWNPLAYING AMOUNTS BASED ON LOWER
POP CHANCES. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF HIDALGO AND CAMERON COUNTIES /WITH STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS
BEING CLOSED FROM TIME TO TIME AND SOIL MOISTURE MAXIMIZED LEADING
TO MOSTLY RUNOFF TODAY AND WITHIN URBAN AREAS/...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM.

.LONG TERM...RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST WILL KEEP LINGERING SHOWERS OVER COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL FIND ITS WAY EAST TO CENTRAL AND
NORTH TEXAS UNDER ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING...AND WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONT MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SLOW UPON REACHING THE
GULF...AND LOCAL RAIN CHANCES WILL EASE...BUT NOT END COMPLETELY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MOST OF IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE GULF FOR NOW. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE GET PICKED UP BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE
WEEK...MARITIME POLAR AIR WILL CHASE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROPELLING A FRONT INTO TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THAT
FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY...CREATING A
TRIFECTA OF SORTS BY BLENDING IN WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EVENTUALLY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...BUT THAT WILL BE JUST AFTER MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EDGING SLOWLY DOWN JUST A BIT...JUST A DEGREE OR
TWO...AS SEPTEMBER PROGRESSES...AND FCST VALUES WILL TEND TO FOLLOW
SUIT...BUT WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABV NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL
WEIGH IN AT PARTLY CLOUDY OR MORE MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WINDS MORE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MODERATE...
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE
IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF...SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WEST GULF AND BY A BUILDING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER WEST. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST. THUS...THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION WILL DICTATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNSTABLE AND UNSETTLED...WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND DISRUPTING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AS WELL AS PROVIDING
SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW MORE STABLE PERIODS WILL OCCUR FRI
AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...BUT THE TROPICAL SHOWER MACHINE DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE IT WILL COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  78  89  79 /  70  40  40  20
BROWNSVILLE          86  77  90  78 /  70  40  40  20
HARLINGEN            87  76  91  78 /  70  30  40  20
MCALLEN              87  77  92  78 /  70  30  40  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      86  76  94  77 /  60  40  40  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  79  87  80 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55/54/CAMPBELL





000
FXUS64 KMAF 160915
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
415 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, under perpetually OVC skies.  Sfc obs show a weak cold
front in the S. Plains, but models stall it just north of the FA
this morning.  To the SW, T.S. Odile was nearly halfway up the Baja
peninsula, and looks to be the source region for rainfall the next
few days.  KMAF 00Z RAOB came in w/a pwats of 1.67", which is about 2
STD DEVs from normal for this time of year.  Models maintain these
high pwats thru at least Saturday night, w/Tds at KMAF remaining at
64F or better during the duration.  Expect current convection to
develop further and intensify today as a vort band from Odile
develops into the area from the west and over the top of the upper
ridge to the south.  Considered issuing a FFA for wrn zones today,
but would rather wait until Odile has made her turn to the NE.
Otherwise, models keep breaking off disturbances from Odile over the
next few days, and sending them E-SE thru the region.  Given
saturated soils from last week`s rains, FFG area-wide will remain
low, and the flash flood threat will be the main concern.  We`ll
continue to emphasize this in the HWO for now, as well as an SPS.

For temps, overcast skies look to dominate most of this forecast,
w/plenty of mid/high lvl moisture spinning off Odile.  Thus, we`ve
generally narrowed the diurnal spread of the MOS numbers, w/H85 temp
trends and forecast soundings suggesting staying closer to the
warmer GFS as opposed to the cooler ECMWF.  Saturday night,
long-range models are in agreement in bringing a cold front thru the
area, courtesy of an upper trough forecast to dig into the MS
Valley.  This should knock temps down to below-normal Sunday, and
scour excess moisture from the area.  We`ve raised POPs Saturday
night for fropa.

Only other concerns are the Rio Grande, where releases from Luis
Leon may aggravate things later in the week.  Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  65  81  66  /  20  10  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              80  69  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                77  68  80  66  /  30  20  40  50
DRYDEN TX                  88  71  87  71  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  68  84  70  /  10  10  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  60  75  63  /  30  30  50  30
HOBBS NM                   73  64  79  64  /  20  10  30  40
MARFA TX                   77  61  76  60  /  10  10  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  68  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
ODESSA TX                  79  69  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
WINK TX                    82  68  85  69  /  20  10  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/44

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 160915
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
415 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, under perpetually OVC skies.  Sfc obs show a weak cold
front in the S. Plains, but models stall it just north of the FA
this morning.  To the SW, T.S. Odile was nearly halfway up the Baja
peninsula, and looks to be the source region for rainfall the next
few days.  KMAF 00Z RAOB came in w/a pwats of 1.67", which is about 2
STD DEVs from normal for this time of year.  Models maintain these
high pwats thru at least Saturday night, w/Tds at KMAF remaining at
64F or better during the duration.  Expect current convection to
develop further and intensify today as a vort band from Odile
develops into the area from the west and over the top of the upper
ridge to the south.  Considered issuing a FFA for wrn zones today,
but would rather wait until Odile has made her turn to the NE.
Otherwise, models keep breaking off disturbances from Odile over the
next few days, and sending them E-SE thru the region.  Given
saturated soils from last week`s rains, FFG area-wide will remain
low, and the flash flood threat will be the main concern.  We`ll
continue to emphasize this in the HWO for now, as well as an SPS.

For temps, overcast skies look to dominate most of this forecast,
w/plenty of mid/high lvl moisture spinning off Odile.  Thus, we`ve
generally narrowed the diurnal spread of the MOS numbers, w/H85 temp
trends and forecast soundings suggesting staying closer to the
warmer GFS as opposed to the cooler ECMWF.  Saturday night,
long-range models are in agreement in bringing a cold front thru the
area, courtesy of an upper trough forecast to dig into the MS
Valley.  This should knock temps down to below-normal Sunday, and
scour excess moisture from the area.  We`ve raised POPs Saturday
night for fropa.

Only other concerns are the Rio Grande, where releases from Luis
Leon may aggravate things later in the week.  Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  65  81  66  /  20  10  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              80  69  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                77  68  80  66  /  30  20  40  50
DRYDEN TX                  88  71  87  71  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  68  84  70  /  10  10  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  60  75  63  /  30  30  50  30
HOBBS NM                   73  64  79  64  /  20  10  30  40
MARFA TX                   77  61  76  60  /  10  10  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  68  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
ODESSA TX                  79  69  81  69  /  20  10  30  20
WINK TX                    82  68  85  69  /  20  10  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/44

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http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KLUB 160849
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM IT. MODELS
PROG A MODEST UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
IT IS HARD TO VERIFY THAT AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ODILE. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK...
THE JET STREAK MOVING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PULL UP
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS THERE WHILE THE NERN ZONES GETTING THE SHORT
END OF THE STICK...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FCST. PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES THIS AFTN MAINLY IN A
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BUT SPREAD OUT FAIRLY EVENLY THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING SUGGESTS SHOWERS
FAVORED BUT THUNDER NOT RULED OUT. FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WILL BE LEAST
LIKELY TO WORK OUT ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO BE THINNEST AND RAIN CHANCES THE LEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE DOMINATING ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WEST TO NEAR FAR SWRN TX/NERN OLD MEXICO BY MID-WEEK...THUS CAUSING
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. OUR PERSISTENT
FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GO UNDISTURBED...AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRANSLATED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CAUSE PWATS TO GO ON THE RISE /1.20-1.80
INCHES BY MID-WEEK/. ODILE IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT BY WESTERLIES
ALOFT...AND EVOLVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES REGION BY LATE WEEK. THUS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE...COUPLED WITH A PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
TO RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK /HIGHEST POPS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION/. WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP EXITS THE REGION IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE AS LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE/S
SPEED. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
EAST OF THE FA BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE SRN ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THIS FRONT BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP...THOUGH THE SRN
AND ERN ZONES ARE HIGHLY FAVORED. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND IS A
TAD SLOWER...AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
ECMWF IN GENERAL TENDS TO BE A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM THAN THE GFS.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. AS SUCH...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  61  81  60  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
TULIA         78  62  83  62  80 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     78  63  81  62  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     76  65  78  63  78 /  40  20  30  30  40
LUBBOCK       78  66  79  65  79 /  40  20  30  20  40
DENVER CITY   73  65  76  63  76 /  40  30  50  40  40
BROWNFIELD    75  66  78  65  78 /  40  20  40  30  40
CHILDRESS     83  67  86  66  86 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          81  67  83  67  82 /  40  20  30  20  30
ASPERMONT     83  70  84  69  84 /  40  20  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 160849
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM IT. MODELS
PROG A MODEST UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
IT IS HARD TO VERIFY THAT AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ODILE. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK...
THE JET STREAK MOVING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PULL UP
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS THERE WHILE THE NERN ZONES GETTING THE SHORT
END OF THE STICK...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FCST. PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES THIS AFTN MAINLY IN A
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BUT SPREAD OUT FAIRLY EVENLY THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING SUGGESTS SHOWERS
FAVORED BUT THUNDER NOT RULED OUT. FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WILL BE LEAST
LIKELY TO WORK OUT ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO BE THINNEST AND RAIN CHANCES THE LEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE DOMINATING ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WEST TO NEAR FAR SWRN TX/NERN OLD MEXICO BY MID-WEEK...THUS CAUSING
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. OUR PERSISTENT
FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GO UNDISTURBED...AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRANSLATED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CAUSE PWATS TO GO ON THE RISE /1.20-1.80
INCHES BY MID-WEEK/. ODILE IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT BY WESTERLIES
ALOFT...AND EVOLVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES REGION BY LATE WEEK. THUS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE...COUPLED WITH A PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
TO RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK /HIGHEST POPS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION/. WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP EXITS THE REGION IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE AS LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE/S
SPEED. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
EAST OF THE FA BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE SRN ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THIS FRONT BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP...THOUGH THE SRN
AND ERN ZONES ARE HIGHLY FAVORED. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND IS A
TAD SLOWER...AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
ECMWF IN GENERAL TENDS TO BE A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM THAN THE GFS.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. AS SUCH...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  61  81  60  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
TULIA         78  62  83  62  80 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     78  63  81  62  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     76  65  78  63  78 /  40  20  30  30  40
LUBBOCK       78  66  79  65  79 /  40  20  30  20  40
DENVER CITY   73  65  76  63  76 /  40  30  50  40  40
BROWNFIELD    75  66  78  65  78 /  40  20  40  30  40
CHILDRESS     83  67  86  66  86 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          81  67  83  67  82 /  40  20  30  20  30
ASPERMONT     83  70  84  69  84 /  40  20  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29






000
FXUS64 KFWD 160847
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
347 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ODILE AND WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE DAY AND
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A BRIEF
STORM OR TWO IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WOULD
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY VERY
WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THEREFORE...IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TODAY
SO WE WILL REDUCE THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TO 20 PERCENT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY BUT WE WILL CARRY
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
STATE. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LOW.

SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
NATION. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION....THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND REACH NORTH
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1139 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
WILL BE REMOVING VCSH FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT WHILE
CONTINUING VCSH AT KACT THROUGH 09Z. UNLIKE THAT SHRA WILL LOWER
OR PRODUCE ANY CIGS REDUCTION TONIGHT. KACT STILL ON TAP TO SEE A
FEW HOURS OF BKN035 ON TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS
BKN-OVC AT 10000+ FEET AND LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  89  72  90  75  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
WACO, TX              88  71  89  74  88 /  30  20  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             86  67  88  71  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            89  69  91  72  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  70  89  71  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            89  74  91  75  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
TERRELL, TX           89  70  89  73  90 /  20  20  20  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         89  70  89  74  89 /  30  20  30  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            87  71  86  73  87 /  30  20  30  30  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     88  71  90  71  89 /  20  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

09/79






000
FXUS64 KAMA 160846
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
346 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE REMAIN FOCUSED UPON THE POTENTIAL
FOR WEATHER IMPACTS EMANATING FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES YESTERDAY HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CORE OF A PARENT
1020 MB SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TODAY...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES BY AFTERNOON AND
MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.

BY FAR THE MOST OBVIOUS WEATHER FEATURE APPARENT IN CURRENT VAPOR
IMAGERY IS THE IMMENSE UPPER AIR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE. SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAS ALREADY EDGED NORTHEASTWARD OVER WEST
TEXAS...AND WILL REMAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN THE DAYS AHEAD...CONTRIBUTING TO A DAILY MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RECENT NWP HAS DONE
LITTLE TO INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE HANDLING OF ODILE/S
REMNANTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE
DEPICTED A GENERAL SHEARING OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A FEW HAVE TRANSLATED THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MORE DIRECT IMPACT FROM ODILE AND
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS PLAINS CENTERED ON THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD MATERIALIZE. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE
40 PERCENT GRIDDED POPS OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

A COHERENT SIGNAL REMAINS FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IF ANY MOISTURE RECEIVED FROM ODILE WOULD STILL BE LINGERING.
IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHER RAIN/STORM CHANCES MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH LATER UPDATES.

LINDLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                81  63  85  62  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
BEAVER OK                  83  66  90  65  90 /  10  10   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              83  60  86  60  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
BORGER TX                  84  66  88  64  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              81  63  86  62  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
CANYON TX                  78  62  84  62  83 /  20  20  20  20  30
CLARENDON TX               80  66  85  64  85 /  20  10  20  10  20
DALHART TX                 82  60  86  60  83 /  20  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  85  63  89  63  89 /  10  10  10   5  10
HEREFORD TX                78  62  83  60  81 /  20  20  30  20  30
LIPSCOMB TX                83  66  88  65  89 /  10  10  10   5  10
PAMPA TX                   82  65  85  63  86 /  20  10  10  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                82  66  87  65  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
WELLINGTON TX              81  67  87  65  88 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10





000
FXUS64 KAMA 160846
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
346 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE REMAIN FOCUSED UPON THE POTENTIAL
FOR WEATHER IMPACTS EMANATING FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES YESTERDAY HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CORE OF A PARENT
1020 MB SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TODAY...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY BREEZES BY AFTERNOON AND
MODERATION OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES.

BY FAR THE MOST OBVIOUS WEATHER FEATURE APPARENT IN CURRENT VAPOR
IMAGERY IS THE IMMENSE UPPER AIR PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE. SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT HAS ALREADY EDGED NORTHEASTWARD OVER WEST
TEXAS...AND WILL REMAIN OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN THE DAYS AHEAD...CONTRIBUTING TO A DAILY MENTION OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RECENT NWP HAS DONE
LITTLE TO INCREASE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE HANDLING OF ODILE/S
REMNANTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE
DEPICTED A GENERAL SHEARING OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A FEW HAVE TRANSLATED THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MORE DIRECT IMPACT FROM ODILE AND
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS PLAINS CENTERED ON THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...
A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD MATERIALIZE. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE
40 PERCENT GRIDDED POPS OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

A COHERENT SIGNAL REMAINS FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IF ANY MOISTURE RECEIVED FROM ODILE WOULD STILL BE LINGERING.
IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHER RAIN/STORM CHANCES MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH LATER UPDATES.

LINDLEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                81  63  85  62  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
BEAVER OK                  83  66  90  65  90 /  10  10   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              83  60  86  60  86 /  10  10  10  10  10
BORGER TX                  84  66  88  64  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              81  63  86  62  84 /  20  10  20  10  20
CANYON TX                  78  62  84  62  83 /  20  20  20  20  30
CLARENDON TX               80  66  85  64  85 /  20  10  20  10  20
DALHART TX                 82  60  86  60  83 /  20  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  85  63  89  63  89 /  10  10  10   5  10
HEREFORD TX                78  62  83  60  81 /  20  20  30  20  30
LIPSCOMB TX                83  66  88  65  89 /  10  10  10   5  10
PAMPA TX                   82  65  85  63  86 /  20  10  10  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                82  66  87  65  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
WELLINGTON TX              81  67  87  65  88 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/10






000
FXUS64 KEWX 160839
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
339 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT WEATHER MAP IS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT BASIN UP
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. IN ADDITION TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA IS SENDING A TON OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SW AND
MUCH OF TEXAS. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...MOVING ALONG THE WESTERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS. WILL KEEP CHC POP UP THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW/MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOT ONLY FROM ODILE BUT ALSO FROM A SURFACE
TROF OFF THE TEXAS COAST...WILL INCREASE POP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AT LEAST. ALREADY COASTAL AREAS ARE SEEING
PREDAWN TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING AND FORMING INLAND. HIGHEST POP
TODAY (60 PERCENT) WILL BE ALONG THE SE COASTAL
COUNTIES...LOWER CHANCE POP OVER THE FAR WEST. THERE IS NOT A
STRONG UPPER OR LOW LEVEL TRIGGER...SO MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
SH/TS ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES WILL
HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME POP OVERNIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
HIGH RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE..NOT ONLY TODAY..BUT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WELL
OVER 2 INCHES. CHANCE POP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...LESSER CHANCES AS YOU HEAD TO THE FAR WEST NEAR AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD POSE SOME ISOLATED
AND MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK. NEWEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE IS PAINTING LIKELY POP EVEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PW REMAINS HIGH. WONT GO THAT HIGH JUST YET BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR
PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. AM CARRYING SLIGHT POP RIGHT
NOW...BUT WEEKEND POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT BY THE TIME FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  74  88  74  87 /  40  20  40  30  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  72  89  72  87 /  40  20  40  30  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  73  89  73  88 /  40  20  40  30  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  73  87  72  87 /  30  20  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  75  88  74  89 /  20  20  40  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  74  87  73  86 /  30  20  40  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  73  91  73  91 /  40  20  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  73  88  73  87 /  40  20  40  30  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  87  73  86 /  50  30  50  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  76  90  76  89 /  40  20  40  30  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  75  91  75  91 /  40  30  40  30  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09






000
FXUS64 KEWX 160839
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
339 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT WEATHER MAP IS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT BASIN UP
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. IN ADDITION TROPICAL STORM ODILE OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA IS SENDING A TON OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SW AND
MUCH OF TEXAS. CURRENT RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...MOVING ALONG THE WESTERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS. WILL KEEP CHC POP UP THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT. PLENTY
OF LOW/MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOT ONLY FROM ODILE BUT ALSO FROM A SURFACE
TROF OFF THE TEXAS COAST...WILL INCREASE POP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AT LEAST. ALREADY COASTAL AREAS ARE SEEING
PREDAWN TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVING AND FORMING INLAND. HIGHEST POP
TODAY (60 PERCENT) WILL BE ALONG THE SE COASTAL
COUNTIES...LOWER CHANCE POP OVER THE FAR WEST. THERE IS NOT A
STRONG UPPER OR LOW LEVEL TRIGGER...SO MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN
SH/TS ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES WILL
HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME POP OVERNIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
HIGH RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE..NOT ONLY TODAY..BUT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL PEAK OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WELL
OVER 2 INCHES. CHANCE POP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
FOR MOST AREAS...HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...LESSER CHANCES AS YOU HEAD TO THE FAR WEST NEAR AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD POSE SOME ISOLATED
AND MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK. NEWEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE IS PAINTING LIKELY POP EVEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
PW REMAINS HIGH. WONT GO THAT HIGH JUST YET BUT SOMETHING TO
WATCH. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR
PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. AM CARRYING SLIGHT POP RIGHT
NOW...BUT WEEKEND POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IF TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS STILL PRESENT BY THE TIME FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  74  88  74  87 /  40  20  40  30  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  72  89  72  87 /  40  20  40  30  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  73  89  73  88 /  40  20  40  30  50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  73  87  72  87 /  30  20  40  30  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  75  88  74  89 /  20  20  40  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  74  87  73  86 /  30  20  40  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  73  91  73  91 /  40  20  40  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  73  88  73  87 /  40  20  40  30  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   89  74  87  73  86 /  50  30  50  30  50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  76  90  76  89 /  40  20  40  30  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  75  91  75  91 /  40  30  40  30  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09





000
FXUS64 KSJT 160832
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Light showers continue to fall across parts of west central Texas,
mainly in the Concho Valley and Heartland areas early this morning.
As of 2 AM, a weak cold front had made it to a line that stretched
roughly from Oklahoma City, to Hobart, to Childress to near Lubbock.
This front is expected to stall near the Red River Valley later this
morning, before lifting back to the north later today.

We will continue with the chance PoP forecast for today across the
area. Moisture will remain abundant for west Texas, and much
higher than normal for this time of the year as tropical moisture
from Odile continue to stream into the area. Along with this
moisture, we will see weak shortwave trough energy move across the
region. This should continue to bring scattered showers with some
isolated thunderstorms through the forecast area. Although
thunderstorms will be possible, since we will also see abundant
cloud cover, instability may be limited, keeping most of the
activity in the form of showers both today and overnight. Have not
made much change to the temperatures that were inherited. Highs in
the mid to upper 80s will be common, with lows mainly in the lower
70s.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday into Monday)

The remnants of Tropical Storm Odile will be over southern Arizona
on Wednesday and will have degraded to an upper low by the time it
moves over the northern Panhandle by Friday. Tropical moisture will
continue to affect West Central Texas through the end of the week
and into the coming weekend. Periodic disturbances moving over the
area through this time period will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast. As the upper low continues to lift to
the northeast on Saturday, a cold front will push south through the
forecast area Saturday night, continuing rain chances over the
forecast area. By Sunday morning the position of the cold front is
expected to be over the southern CWA with rain chances limited to
that area. No rain is expected on Monday.

Afternoon highs should remain in the mid to upper 80s through Sunday
with postfrontal afternoon highs on Monday a few degrees cooler, in
the low to mid 80s. Morning lows in the lower 70s should cool into
the low 60s by Monday morning in the wake of the cold front.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  86  70  88  70  86 /  30  20  40  20  40
San Angelo  86  71  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  40  40
Junction  87  72  88  70  89 /  30  20  40  50  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KCRP 160611 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
111 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH
THE NIGHT AFFECTING THE COASTAL LOCATIONS MAINLY CRP...THEN MOVE
FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE MID MORNING TO ALI-VCT. IN
ADDITION...SHOULD SEE MVFR/VFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING TOWARD SUNRISE...LINGERING LONGER AT LRD. AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...TRANSITIONING TO THUNDER BY THE AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED
MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...TAPERING OFF FROM
EAST TO WEST IN THE EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  89  76  90  75  /  40  50  30  50  30
VICTORIA          74  88  74  89  74  /  40  50  30  50  30
LAREDO            77  94  78  95  77  /  40  40  30  30  20
ALICE             75  90  75  92  74  /  30  50  30  50  20
ROCKPORT          79  89  78  88  78  /  40  50  30  50  40
COTULLA           75  94  75  95  74  /  30  30  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        75  90  75  92  74  /  40  40  30  50  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  79  89  78  /  40  50  30  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 160611 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
111 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH
THE NIGHT AFFECTING THE COASTAL LOCATIONS MAINLY CRP...THEN MOVE
FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE MID MORNING TO ALI-VCT. IN
ADDITION...SHOULD SEE MVFR/VFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING TOWARD SUNRISE...LINGERING LONGER AT LRD. AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...TRANSITIONING TO THUNDER BY THE AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED
MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...TAPERING OFF FROM
EAST TO WEST IN THE EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  89  76  90  75  /  40  50  30  50  30
VICTORIA          74  88  74  89  74  /  40  50  30  50  30
LAREDO            77  94  78  95  77  /  40  40  30  30  20
ALICE             75  90  75  92  74  /  30  50  30  50  20
ROCKPORT          79  89  78  88  78  /  40  50  30  50  40
COTULLA           75  94  75  95  74  /  30  30  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        75  90  75  92  74  /  40  40  30  50  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  79  89  78  /  40  50  30  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KMAF 160543
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1243 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Have widespread mid and high clouds with increasing low clouds expected.
VFR conditions will deteriorate with cigs becoming mainly MVFR with some
IFR around sunrise for CNM and HOB.  Vsbys should be VFR or high MVFR with
a little fog possible.  Could also see a few light showers overnight.
Wind light and variable becoming E to SE during the day.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Atmospheric moisture content remains high with mid level theta-e
ridge extending wsw-ene across the area and today PWs are about
125% of normal. Precip will be mostly confined to the far w-sw
CWFA due to closer proximity of rich moisture and source region
for shrtwv trof within the deep sly flow between Odile and ridging
to the e. A cold front moving into Panhandle will slowly move s
overnight arriving in the nrn PB just before 12Z. By 18Z Tue the
front will be near coincident with mid level theta-e ridge (INVOF
I-20). Low level convergence looks to be maximized around 18Z Tue
along the front and SHRA/TSRA may develop well before 18Z. 12Z
METMOS has come in wet from HOB...MAF...BPG. It`s hard to discern
shrtwv trof INVOF front so will not go as high as METMOS PoPs, but
will keep chance PoPs going. By early Wed morning a shrtwv trof
will be across far W TX and with renewed low level mstr transport
SHRA/TSRA are again expected. Ensemble NAEFS/GEFS data suggest PWs
will be anomalously high (150% of normal) and heavy rain will be a
concern, especially across the higher terrain of GDP/Delaware
Mtns, but also parts of SE NM in evening hrs. Will opt to ramp up
PoPs across the w Wed PM/Wed night with heavy rain wording. Meanwhile
the remnants of Odile will get caught up in sw mid level flow by
Thur AM. Although the remnant circulation will remain to the nw of
the CWFA a rich mid level theta-e ridge axis will move across much
of the area Thur PM and low level mstr transport will increase
early with general lift indicated in OMEGA/Q vector fields. Thus
precip will be favored to continue. SE NM again looks to be the
favored area, including heavy rain. Flash flood watches may
eventually be needed from Culberson into the SE NM. Precip will
have a good chance to continue even into Friday as shearing
vorticity axis remains to the w or slowly moves across. There are
big differences in models Sat/Sun as GFS brings a front in Sat
evening/ECMWF Sun PM, but models continue to develop precip along
the front.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 160543
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1243 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Have widespread mid and high clouds with increasing low clouds expected.
VFR conditions will deteriorate with cigs becoming mainly MVFR with some
IFR around sunrise for CNM and HOB.  Vsbys should be VFR or high MVFR with
a little fog possible.  Could also see a few light showers overnight.
Wind light and variable becoming E to SE during the day.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Atmospheric moisture content remains high with mid level theta-e
ridge extending wsw-ene across the area and today PWs are about
125% of normal. Precip will be mostly confined to the far w-sw
CWFA due to closer proximity of rich moisture and source region
for shrtwv trof within the deep sly flow between Odile and ridging
to the e. A cold front moving into Panhandle will slowly move s
overnight arriving in the nrn PB just before 12Z. By 18Z Tue the
front will be near coincident with mid level theta-e ridge (INVOF
I-20). Low level convergence looks to be maximized around 18Z Tue
along the front and SHRA/TSRA may develop well before 18Z. 12Z
METMOS has come in wet from HOB...MAF...BPG. It`s hard to discern
shrtwv trof INVOF front so will not go as high as METMOS PoPs, but
will keep chance PoPs going. By early Wed morning a shrtwv trof
will be across far W TX and with renewed low level mstr transport
SHRA/TSRA are again expected. Ensemble NAEFS/GEFS data suggest PWs
will be anomalously high (150% of normal) and heavy rain will be a
concern, especially across the higher terrain of GDP/Delaware
Mtns, but also parts of SE NM in evening hrs. Will opt to ramp up
PoPs across the w Wed PM/Wed night with heavy rain wording. Meanwhile
the remnants of Odile will get caught up in sw mid level flow by
Thur AM. Although the remnant circulation will remain to the nw of
the CWFA a rich mid level theta-e ridge axis will move across much
of the area Thur PM and low level mstr transport will increase
early with general lift indicated in OMEGA/Q vector fields. Thus
precip will be favored to continue. SE NM again looks to be the
favored area, including heavy rain. Flash flood watches may
eventually be needed from Culberson into the SE NM. Precip will
have a good chance to continue even into Friday as shearing
vorticity axis remains to the w or slowly moves across. There are
big differences in models Sat/Sun as GFS brings a front in Sat
evening/ECMWF Sun PM, but models continue to develop precip along
the front.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 160542
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1242 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE THIS PERIOD WITH SHRA
DEVELOPING NOW ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
RUNS SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO MID DAY TUESDAY.
PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES A CONCERN AS WELL AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED
TO NEAR CALM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SOIL MOISTURE IS HIGH FROM
RECENT RAINS. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ASHORE THIS MORNING PROVIDING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO AID IN DEVELOPING TSRA BY MID DAY...SOME
WITH HEAVY RAINS AND MVFR/IFR CONDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE NORTH INITIALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE WAVE PUSHES WESTWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER CAMERON COUNTY HAS DISSIPATED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO WITH SOME PATCHY CONV LINGERING
OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE RGV WITH A PWAT OF AROUND 2.6
INCHES. WEAK SURFACE TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL USHER THROUGH
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF CONV ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS WILL MAKE THE TAFS
PROBLEMATIC OVER THE LOWER RGV FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD. SINCE THE
CONV HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR WILL LIKELY GO CLOSE TO
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS
REDUCING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR
LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER AREAS OF CONVECTION.
WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THE TAF WORDING CLOSE TO THE BRO AREA
WITH A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF TRENDS FOR THE HRL AND MFE
AIRPORTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...COMBINATION OF H5 INVERTED
TROUGH AND BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE STILL PRIMED FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH MOST ATMOSPHERE SFC TO H3 /PW OF 2.38/...SO ANY RAIN FALL
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
PEAK OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE AXES OF
THE TROUGHS WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST...AND WILL BE AIDED BY A BIT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES
RISES TOMORROW...THOUGH...SO HEATING WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
INGREDIENT IN THE OVERALL PRECIP FORECAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S WHERE THERE
IS CLOUD COVER. AREAS OUT WEST MAY SEE SOME DAYTIME SUN EARLY BEFORE
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES IN FRO THE EAST. RESIDUAL ACTIVITY
DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE STREAMER
ACTIVITY REPOPULATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MAKES ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE ASHORE. STABLE LAND MASS REGIME WILL KEEP GULF SHOWERS FROM
REACHING BEYOND ABOUT 30 MILES INLAND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TX. A
500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST COAST THURSDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EXTENDING INTO NORTH TX WILL
PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TX SUNDAY AND INTO SOUTH TX
MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MIDLEVEL LOW WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 4
FEET...GENERALLY WIND WAVE DRIVEN FROM  LOCAL SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55






000
FXUS64 KHGX 160455
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1155 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVAITION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND COULD IMPACT
KGLS/KLBX SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OVERALL TAFS LOOK ON
TRACK WITH VFR CIGS EXCEPT FOR ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
COMING DAY. MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING AND THEN BECOMING MORE ROBUST LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END IN
THE EVENING.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRETTY COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS EVENING. A 7 PM ANALYSIS SHOWED A
WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR IAH UNTO SW LA...A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
PSN TO CLL TO GYB...AND A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF
WATERS ABOUT 20 NM OFF THE COAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ALSO
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVE DISSIPATED AS OF 830
PM. DO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WORK THEIR WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF REFLECTS TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST.
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCXO WHERE SOME
LIMITED VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. LEANED MORE ON NAM/WRF/HRRR TO GET
TIMING OF VCSH AND VCTS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF KSGR/KHOU IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY DEVELOP
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



000
FXUS64 KHGX 160455
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1155 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVAITION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST AND COULD IMPACT
KGLS/KLBX SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. OVERALL TAFS LOOK ON
TRACK WITH VFR CIGS EXCEPT FOR ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
COMING DAY. MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING AND THEN BECOMING MORE ROBUST LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END IN
THE EVENING.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRETTY COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS EVENING. A 7 PM ANALYSIS SHOWED A
WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR IAH UNTO SW LA...A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
PSN TO CLL TO GYB...AND A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF
WATERS ABOUT 20 NM OFF THE COAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ALSO
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVE DISSIPATED AS OF 830
PM. DO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WORK THEIR WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF REFLECTS TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST.
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCXO WHERE SOME
LIMITED VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. LEANED MORE ON NAM/WRF/HRRR TO GET
TIMING OF VCSH AND VCTS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF KSGR/KHOU IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY DEVELOP
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KEWX 160446
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1146 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF UPDATE/
AFTER A REVIEW OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS THE MVFR CIGS ARE LESS LIKELY
TO ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE THE 00Z TAF PROJECTIONS. UPDATES WERE
ALREADY MADE TO SHOW A SLOWER ONSET OF MVFR CIGS. THE WIND FIELDS
OVERNIGHT ARE LIGHTER THAN PROJECTED WHICH MEANS A FEW AREAS COULD
SEE IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS A DIP IN VSBY BELOW 6 NM. A SURFACE LOW
MOVING INTO DEEP S TX SHOULD HAVE LESS INFLUENCE ON WINDS BY LATE
MORNING...AND THE MVFR CIGS FROM SELY WINDS SHOULD BE MORE
CONSISTENT ON HEIGHT. HOWEVER...HIGH PWAT VALUES COULD ADD TO
BUOYANCY AND MAKE CIG COVERAGE LESS CONSISTENT. LATER IN THE
DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FILLING INTO THE AREA AT SEVERAL LEVELS
FROM BOTH THE GULF AND THE PACIFIC DUE TO TROPICAL STORM ODILE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
OVERALL...SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT SKY AND WEATHER GRIDS.
LATEST NAM12...SREF AND RUC13 SOLUTIONS SHOW AN AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY OVER
PARTS OF COMAL...HAYS AND TRAVIS COUNTIES. THEREFORE...INCREASED
POP ACROSS THAT AREA TO A 20%. STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR RAIN CHANCES
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS TROPICAL AIRMASS
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AT LOWER LEVELS AND FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD BACK CLOUD COVER TO VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
07Z DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. SOME ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE
COASTAL BEND IS SUGGESTED TO SHIFT FOCUS TO THE I-35 TAF SITES BY
THE FINER RES MODEL DATA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS NOTED...WILL LEAVE THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
ABUNDANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY THE MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL LOOK AT A POSSIBLE UPDATE FOR THIS SHIFT AS 00Z
MODEL DATA ARRIVES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
ONSHORE INTO DEEP S TX AND NW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT...LEAVING MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT AMOUNTS ARE NEGLIGIBLE AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY 00Z. THE PRIMARY SHORT
RANGE ISSUE IS THE INCREASE IN MOIST AIR...AT LOW AND MID-LEVELS
FROM THE GULF...AND AT MID- AND UPPER LEVELS FROM PACIFIC HURRICANE
ODILE. WE EXPECT SPRINKLES TONIGHT AS THE MOIST GULF AIR (PW OVER
2 INCHES) UNDERGOES GENTLE LIFT DUE TO TERRAIN. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL SOURCE OF LIFT OTHER THAN A WEAK SEA-BREEZE...WE EXPECT
SCATTERED POPS AND MODEST QPF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER AND SCATTERED
STORMS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
ODILE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND IS SHEARED/ABSORBED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. PW SHOULD BE AT OR
ABOVE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER...SO WHEN
COMBINED WITH GENERAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WILL BRING
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SOURCE OF LOW-
LEVEL LIFT AND FOCUS...WE STILL EXPECT QPF TO ONLY BE IN THE 1/4
OT 1/2 INCH RANGE AT MANY SITES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND MAY BE BOLSTERED BY ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. WE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN POPS EACH DAY...BUT LESS
COVERAGE AND WITH LOW QPF DUE TO A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS.
HOWEVER...LESSER CLOUDCOVER AND CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL. LONGER RANGE MODELS
INDICATE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST (MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK)...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED LOW TO MODERATE POPS
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  90  74  91  74 /  20  30  30  30  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  90  72  90  71 /  20  30  30  30  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  91  73  92  72 /  20  30  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  90  72 /  10  30  30  40  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  88  75  89  75 /  10  20  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  74  89  73 /  10  30  30  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  91  73  91  72 /  10  30  30  40  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  90  73  90  73 /  20  30  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  74  90  73 /  10  40  30  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  91  76  91  75 /  10  30  30  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  91  75  92  75 /  10  30  30  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17






000
FXUS64 KEWX 160446
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1146 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF UPDATE/
AFTER A REVIEW OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS THE MVFR CIGS ARE LESS LIKELY
TO ARRIVE IN TIME FOR THE THE 00Z TAF PROJECTIONS. UPDATES WERE
ALREADY MADE TO SHOW A SLOWER ONSET OF MVFR CIGS. THE WIND FIELDS
OVERNIGHT ARE LIGHTER THAN PROJECTED WHICH MEANS A FEW AREAS COULD
SEE IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS A DIP IN VSBY BELOW 6 NM. A SURFACE LOW
MOVING INTO DEEP S TX SHOULD HAVE LESS INFLUENCE ON WINDS BY LATE
MORNING...AND THE MVFR CIGS FROM SELY WINDS SHOULD BE MORE
CONSISTENT ON HEIGHT. HOWEVER...HIGH PWAT VALUES COULD ADD TO
BUOYANCY AND MAKE CIG COVERAGE LESS CONSISTENT. LATER IN THE
DAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FILLING INTO THE AREA AT SEVERAL LEVELS
FROM BOTH THE GULF AND THE PACIFIC DUE TO TROPICAL STORM ODILE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
OVERALL...SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT SKY AND WEATHER GRIDS.
LATEST NAM12...SREF AND RUC13 SOLUTIONS SHOW AN AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY OVER
PARTS OF COMAL...HAYS AND TRAVIS COUNTIES. THEREFORE...INCREASED
POP ACROSS THAT AREA TO A 20%. STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR RAIN CHANCES
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS TROPICAL AIRMASS
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AT LOWER LEVELS AND FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD BACK CLOUD COVER TO VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
07Z DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. SOME ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE
COASTAL BEND IS SUGGESTED TO SHIFT FOCUS TO THE I-35 TAF SITES BY
THE FINER RES MODEL DATA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS NOTED...WILL LEAVE THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
ABUNDANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY THE MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL LOOK AT A POSSIBLE UPDATE FOR THIS SHIFT AS 00Z
MODEL DATA ARRIVES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
ONSHORE INTO DEEP S TX AND NW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT...LEAVING MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT AMOUNTS ARE NEGLIGIBLE AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY 00Z. THE PRIMARY SHORT
RANGE ISSUE IS THE INCREASE IN MOIST AIR...AT LOW AND MID-LEVELS
FROM THE GULF...AND AT MID- AND UPPER LEVELS FROM PACIFIC HURRICANE
ODILE. WE EXPECT SPRINKLES TONIGHT AS THE MOIST GULF AIR (PW OVER
2 INCHES) UNDERGOES GENTLE LIFT DUE TO TERRAIN. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL SOURCE OF LIFT OTHER THAN A WEAK SEA-BREEZE...WE EXPECT
SCATTERED POPS AND MODEST QPF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER AND SCATTERED
STORMS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
ODILE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND IS SHEARED/ABSORBED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. PW SHOULD BE AT OR
ABOVE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER...SO WHEN
COMBINED WITH GENERAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WILL BRING
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SOURCE OF LOW-
LEVEL LIFT AND FOCUS...WE STILL EXPECT QPF TO ONLY BE IN THE 1/4
OT 1/2 INCH RANGE AT MANY SITES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND MAY BE BOLSTERED BY ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. WE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN POPS EACH DAY...BUT LESS
COVERAGE AND WITH LOW QPF DUE TO A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS.
HOWEVER...LESSER CLOUDCOVER AND CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL. LONGER RANGE MODELS
INDICATE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST (MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK)...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED LOW TO MODERATE POPS
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  90  74  91  74 /  20  30  30  30  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  90  72  90  71 /  20  30  30  30  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  91  73  92  72 /  20  30  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  90  72 /  10  30  30  40  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  88  75  89  75 /  10  20  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  74  89  73 /  10  30  30  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  91  73  91  72 /  10  30  30  40  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  90  73  90  73 /  20  30  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  74  90  73 /  10  40  30  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  91  76  91  75 /  10  30  30  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  91  75  92  75 /  10  30  30  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17





000
FXUS64 KLUB 160442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LOW
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS...WHERE WE HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MVFR
GROUP. WE HAVE KEPT KLBB VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED. SCATTERED -TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY IMPACT KLBB...WITH A
LOWER LIKELIHOOD AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN OUR SRN COUNTIES...OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 160442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LOW
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS...WHERE WE HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MVFR
GROUP. WE HAVE KEPT KLBB VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED. SCATTERED -TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY IMPACT KLBB...WITH A
LOWER LIKELIHOOD AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN OUR SRN COUNTIES...OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 160442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LOW
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS...WHERE WE HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MVFR
GROUP. WE HAVE KEPT KLBB VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED. SCATTERED -TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY IMPACT KLBB...WITH A
LOWER LIKELIHOOD AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN OUR SRN COUNTIES...OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 160442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LOW
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS...WHERE WE HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MVFR
GROUP. WE HAVE KEPT KLBB VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED. SCATTERED -TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY IMPACT KLBB...WITH A
LOWER LIKELIHOOD AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN OUR SRN COUNTIES...OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33






000
FXUS64 KFWD 160439 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
WILL BE REMOVING VCSH FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT WHILE
CONTINUING VCSH AT KACT THROUGH 09Z. UNLIKE THAT SHRA WILL LOWER
OR PRODUCE ANY CIGS REDUCTION TONIGHT. KACT STILL ON TAP TO SEE A
FEW HOURS OF BKN035 ON TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS
BKN-OVC AT 10000+ FEET AND LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. 75

&&

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20
PERCENT AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
MORE TROUBLE COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED LOWS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. TR.9S

&&


.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE.
EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE
PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS
NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY
INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS
FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR
SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A
WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.     25

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN.    STALLEY 25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  87  74  89  75 /  20  40  20  20  30
WACO, TX              73  87  73  88  73 /  20  40  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             69  84  69  86  69 /  20  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            71  87  71  88  71 /  20  40  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  70  86  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            75  86  74  88  74 /  20  40  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           73  86  71  87  72 /  20  40  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  72  88  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  72  87  72 /  20  40  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  85  70  87  71 /  20  40  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/





000
FXUS64 KFWD 160439 AAD
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
WILL BE REMOVING VCSH FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT WHILE
CONTINUING VCSH AT KACT THROUGH 09Z. UNLIKE THAT SHRA WILL LOWER
OR PRODUCE ANY CIGS REDUCTION TONIGHT. KACT STILL ON TAP TO SEE A
FEW HOURS OF BKN035 ON TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS
BKN-OVC AT 10000+ FEET AND LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. 75

&&

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20
PERCENT AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
MORE TROUBLE COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED LOWS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. TR.9S

&&


.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE.
EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE
PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS
NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY
INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS
FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR
SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A
WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.     25

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN.    STALLEY 25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  87  74  89  75 /  20  40  20  20  30
WACO, TX              73  87  73  88  73 /  20  40  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             69  84  69  86  69 /  20  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            71  87  71  88  71 /  20  40  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  70  86  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            75  86  74  88  74 /  20  40  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           73  86  71  87  72 /  20  40  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  72  88  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  72  87  72 /  20  40  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  85  70  87  71 /  20  40  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KSJT 160432
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1131 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next 24 hours.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late
tonight into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high
cloudiness but cannot rule out some scattered low clouds
developing across the southern terminals towards daybreak.
Scattered convection may develop Tuesday afternoon and evening but
will not include thunder at the terminals due to uncertainty in
timing and coverage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
Hurricane Odile continues to move to the north-northwest over the
southern Baja Peninsula this evening, fighting against the mid-
level ridge anchored over the southern CONUS. Abundant mid/upper-
level moisture is emanating from this system, moving north and
east into West TX. A band of very light rain showers continues
to drift from west to east across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
essentially running from San Angelo to Brownwood. Additional
isolated showers have developed farther north from near Rotan to
Haskell. The environment remains convectively unstable with
theta-e decreasing with height through approximately 500 mb, but
large scale ascent is somewhat weak. There really isn`t much of a
forcing mechanism and MUCAPE values remain less than 1000 J/kg
(per RAP Mesoanalysis). A cold front to the northwest of the area,
running from near Clovis, NM to Gage, OK, continues to mover very
slowly to the south, but shouldn`t reach the forecast area
tonight.

PoPs were maintained in the 20-30% range overnight but the thunder
was removed from the forecast. Any precipitation that develops
overnight should remain light, with QPF amounts typically under
1/10 of an inch. Wind/sky grids were also modified but overnight
temperatures remain on track.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next
24 hours. Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the
area tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible at
the KBBD terminal this evening and have included a TEMPO group for
a couple of hours. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late
tonight into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high
cloudiness but cannot rule out some scattered low clouds
developing across the southern terminals towards daybreak.
Scattered convection may develop Tuesday afternoon but will not
include thunder at the terminals due to uncertainty in timing and
coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee.
These showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid
and high level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will
continue to advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak
cold front is currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle
and northwest Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south
overnight and should reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties
around 3 AM. The front is expected to stall along or just north of
I-20 Tuesday morning, before washing out during the afternoon
hours. The best chance for rainfall overnight will be across the
Big Country, mainly after midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly
lower than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures
topping out in the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing
the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts,
however remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants
may reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. WPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  30  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KSJT 160432
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1131 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next 24 hours.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late
tonight into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high
cloudiness but cannot rule out some scattered low clouds
developing across the southern terminals towards daybreak.
Scattered convection may develop Tuesday afternoon and evening but
will not include thunder at the terminals due to uncertainty in
timing and coverage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
Hurricane Odile continues to move to the north-northwest over the
southern Baja Peninsula this evening, fighting against the mid-
level ridge anchored over the southern CONUS. Abundant mid/upper-
level moisture is emanating from this system, moving north and
east into West TX. A band of very light rain showers continues
to drift from west to east across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
essentially running from San Angelo to Brownwood. Additional
isolated showers have developed farther north from near Rotan to
Haskell. The environment remains convectively unstable with
theta-e decreasing with height through approximately 500 mb, but
large scale ascent is somewhat weak. There really isn`t much of a
forcing mechanism and MUCAPE values remain less than 1000 J/kg
(per RAP Mesoanalysis). A cold front to the northwest of the area,
running from near Clovis, NM to Gage, OK, continues to mover very
slowly to the south, but shouldn`t reach the forecast area
tonight.

PoPs were maintained in the 20-30% range overnight but the thunder
was removed from the forecast. Any precipitation that develops
overnight should remain light, with QPF amounts typically under
1/10 of an inch. Wind/sky grids were also modified but overnight
temperatures remain on track.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next
24 hours. Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the
area tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible at
the KBBD terminal this evening and have included a TEMPO group for
a couple of hours. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late
tonight into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high
cloudiness but cannot rule out some scattered low clouds
developing across the southern terminals towards daybreak.
Scattered convection may develop Tuesday afternoon but will not
include thunder at the terminals due to uncertainty in timing and
coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee.
These showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid
and high level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will
continue to advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak
cold front is currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle
and northwest Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south
overnight and should reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties
around 3 AM. The front is expected to stall along or just north of
I-20 Tuesday morning, before washing out during the afternoon
hours. The best chance for rainfall overnight will be across the
Big Country, mainly after midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly
lower than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures
topping out in the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing
the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts,
however remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants
may reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. WPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  30  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








000
FXUS64 KAMA 160429 CCA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1128 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT THE DALHART TAF SITE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VLIFR
CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 16Z TUESDAY AT THE DALHART
TAF SITE. AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES...VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
ABOUT 10Z AND 16Z TUESDAY. MVFR AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES AFTER 16Z TO 18Z TUESDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WHICH WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z TO 19Z TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISHING AGAIN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THREE TAF SITES AS OF 00Z TUESDAY
AND WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
14Z TO 16Z TUESDAY. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE DALHART AND GUYMON
TAF SITES WILL BECOME LIFR TO VLIFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER
00Z TO 02Z TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING MVFR TO VFR AGAIN AFTER 14Z TO 16Z
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE WILL QUICKLY BECOME
MVFR TO IFR AFTER 01Z TO 03Z TUESDAY AND MAY BECOME VLIFR TO IFR DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AFTER 16Z
TO 18Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO BE A THORN IN THE SIDE OF OUR FORECAST.
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PANHANDLES
EARLIER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WE
NOW HAVE RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE...AND THERE ARE EVEN A FEW INDICATIONS THAT THIS MAY NOT
BE EARLY ENOUGH. ALL IN ALL...THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE DOING
PRETTY GOOD BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

TONIGHT...
LOOKING UPSTREAM INTO KS AT THIS HOUR...THINK SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SRN TX PANHANDLE.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT THERE COULD BE A BIT OF PRECIP IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE TUE-THU.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 160429 CCA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1128 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT THE DALHART TAF SITE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VLIFR
CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 16Z TUESDAY AT THE DALHART
TAF SITE. AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES...VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
ABOUT 10Z AND 16Z TUESDAY. MVFR AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES AFTER 16Z TO 18Z TUESDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WHICH WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z TO 19Z TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISHING AGAIN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THREE TAF SITES AS OF 00Z TUESDAY
AND WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
14Z TO 16Z TUESDAY. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE DALHART AND GUYMON
TAF SITES WILL BECOME LIFR TO VLIFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER
00Z TO 02Z TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING MVFR TO VFR AGAIN AFTER 14Z TO 16Z
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE WILL QUICKLY BECOME
MVFR TO IFR AFTER 01Z TO 03Z TUESDAY AND MAY BECOME VLIFR TO IFR DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AFTER 16Z
TO 18Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO BE A THORN IN THE SIDE OF OUR FORECAST.
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PANHANDLES
EARLIER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WE
NOW HAVE RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE...AND THERE ARE EVEN A FEW INDICATIONS THAT THIS MAY NOT
BE EARLY ENOUGH. ALL IN ALL...THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE DOING
PRETTY GOOD BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

TONIGHT...
LOOKING UPSTREAM INTO KS AT THIS HOUR...THINK SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SRN TX PANHANDLE.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT THERE COULD BE A BIT OF PRECIP IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE TUE-THU.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 160429 CCA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1128 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT THE DALHART TAF SITE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VLIFR
CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 16Z TUESDAY AT THE DALHART
TAF SITE. AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES...VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
ABOUT 10Z AND 16Z TUESDAY. MVFR AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES AFTER 16Z TO 18Z TUESDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WHICH WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z TO 19Z TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISHING AGAIN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THREE TAF SITES AS OF 00Z TUESDAY
AND WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
14Z TO 16Z TUESDAY. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE DALHART AND GUYMON
TAF SITES WILL BECOME LIFR TO VLIFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER
00Z TO 02Z TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING MVFR TO VFR AGAIN AFTER 14Z TO 16Z
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE WILL QUICKLY BECOME
MVFR TO IFR AFTER 01Z TO 03Z TUESDAY AND MAY BECOME VLIFR TO IFR DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AFTER 16Z
TO 18Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO BE A THORN IN THE SIDE OF OUR FORECAST.
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PANHANDLES
EARLIER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WE
NOW HAVE RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE...AND THERE ARE EVEN A FEW INDICATIONS THAT THIS MAY NOT
BE EARLY ENOUGH. ALL IN ALL...THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE DOING
PRETTY GOOD BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

TONIGHT...
LOOKING UPSTREAM INTO KS AT THIS HOUR...THINK SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SRN TX PANHANDLE.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT THERE COULD BE A BIT OF PRECIP IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE TUE-THU.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 160429 CCA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1128 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT THE DALHART TAF SITE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VLIFR
CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 16Z TUESDAY AT THE DALHART
TAF SITE. AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES...VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
ABOUT 10Z AND 16Z TUESDAY. MVFR AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES AFTER 16Z TO 18Z TUESDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WHICH WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z TO 19Z TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISHING AGAIN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THREE TAF SITES AS OF 00Z TUESDAY
AND WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
14Z TO 16Z TUESDAY. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE DALHART AND GUYMON
TAF SITES WILL BECOME LIFR TO VLIFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER
00Z TO 02Z TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING MVFR TO VFR AGAIN AFTER 14Z TO 16Z
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE WILL QUICKLY BECOME
MVFR TO IFR AFTER 01Z TO 03Z TUESDAY AND MAY BECOME VLIFR TO IFR DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AFTER 16Z
TO 18Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO BE A THORN IN THE SIDE OF OUR FORECAST.
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PANHANDLES
EARLIER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WE
NOW HAVE RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE...AND THERE ARE EVEN A FEW INDICATIONS THAT THIS MAY NOT
BE EARLY ENOUGH. ALL IN ALL...THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE DOING
PRETTY GOOD BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

TONIGHT...
LOOKING UPSTREAM INTO KS AT THIS HOUR...THINK SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SRN TX PANHANDLE.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT THERE COULD BE A BIT OF PRECIP IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE TUE-THU.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS64 KAMA 160422
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1122 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT THE DALHART TAF SITE WILL LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VLIFR
CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 16Z TUESDAY AT THE DALHART
TAF SITE. AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES...VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
ABOUT 10Z AND 16Z TUESDAY. MVFR AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES AFTER 16Z TO 18Z TUESDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WHICH WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z TO 19Z TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISHING AGAIN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THREE TAF SITES AS OF 00Z TUESDAY
AND WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
14Z TO 16Z TUESDAY. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE DALHART AND GUYMON
TAF SITES WILL BECOME LIFR TO VLIFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER
00Z TO 02Z TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING MVFR TO VFR AGAIN AFTER 14Z TO 16Z
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE WILL QUICKLY BECOME
MVFR TO IFR AFTER 01Z TO 03Z TUESDAY AND MAY BECOME VLIFR TO IFR DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AFTER 16Z
TO 18Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO BE A THORN IN THE SIDE OF OUR FORECAST.
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PANHANDLES
EARLIER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WE
NOW HAVE RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE...AND THERE ARE EVEN A FEW INDICATIONS THAT THIS MAY NOT
BE EARLY ENOUGH. ALL IN ALL...THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE DOING
PRETTY GOOD BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

TONIGHT...
LOOKING UPSTREAM INTO KS AT THIS HOUR...THINK SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SRN TX PANHANDLE.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT THERE COULD BE A BIT OF PRECIP IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE TUE-THU.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 160422
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1122 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT THE DALHART TAF SITE WILL LIFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z TUESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VLIFR
CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 16Z TUESDAY AT THE DALHART
TAF SITE. AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES...VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
ABOUT 10Z AND 16Z TUESDAY. MVFR AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES AFTER 16Z TO 18Z TUESDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WHICH WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z TO 19Z TUESDAY...AND THEN
DIMINISHING AGAIN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THREE TAF SITES AS OF 00Z TUESDAY
AND WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
14Z TO 16Z TUESDAY. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE DALHART AND GUYMON
TAF SITES WILL BECOME LIFR TO VLIFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER
00Z TO 02Z TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING MVFR TO VFR AGAIN AFTER 14Z TO 16Z
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE WILL QUICKLY BECOME
MVFR TO IFR AFTER 01Z TO 03Z TUESDAY AND MAY BECOME VLIFR TO IFR DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AFTER 16Z
TO 18Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO BE A THORN IN THE SIDE OF OUR FORECAST.
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PANHANDLES
EARLIER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WE
NOW HAVE RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE...AND THERE ARE EVEN A FEW INDICATIONS THAT THIS MAY NOT
BE EARLY ENOUGH. ALL IN ALL...THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE DOING
PRETTY GOOD BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

TONIGHT...
LOOKING UPSTREAM INTO KS AT THIS HOUR...THINK SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SRN TX PANHANDLE.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT THERE COULD BE A BIT OF PRECIP IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE TUE-THU.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KEWX 160246 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
946 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL...SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT SKY AND WEATHER GRIDS.
LATEST NAM12...SREF AND RUC13 SOLUTIONS SHOW AN AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY OVER
PARTS OF COMAL...HAYS AND TRAVIS COUNTIES. THEREFORE...INCREASED
POP ACROSS THAT AREA TO A 20%. STILL LOOK GOOD FOR RAIN CHANCE
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS TROPICAL AIRMASS
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AT LOWER LEVELS AND FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD BACK CLOUD COVER TO VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
07Z DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. SOME ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE
COASTAL BEND IS SUGGESTED TO SHIFT FOCUS TO THE I-35 TAF SITES BY
THE FINER RES MODEL DATA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS NOTED...WILL LEAVE THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
ABUNDANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY THE MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL LOOK AT A POSSIBLE UPDATE FOR THIS SHIFT AS 00Z
MODEL DATA ARRIVES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
ONSHORE INTO DEEP S TX AND NW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT...LEAVING MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT AMOUNTS ARE NEGLIGIBLE AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY 00Z. THE PRIMARY SHORT
RANGE ISSUE IS THE INCREASE IN MOIST AIR...AT LOW AND MID-LEVELS
FROM THE GULF...AND AT MID- AND UPPER LEVELS FROM PACIFIC HURRICANE
ODILE. WE EXPECT SPRINKLES TONIGHT AS THE MOIST GULF AIR (PW OVER
2 INCHES) UNDERGOES GENTLE LIFT DUE TO TERRAIN. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL SOURCE OF LIFT OTHER THAN A WEAK SEA-BREEZE...WE EXPECT
SCATTERED POPS AND MODEST QPF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER AND SCATTERED
STORMS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
ODILE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND IS SHEARED/ABSORBED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. PW SHOULD BE AT OR
ABOVE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER...SO WHEN
COMBINED WITH GENERAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WILL BRING
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SOURCE OF LOW-
LEVEL LIFT AND FOCUS...WE STILL EXPECT QPF TO ONLY BE IN THE 1/4
OT 1/2 INCH RANGE AT MANY SITES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND MAY BE BOLSTERED BY ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. WE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN POPS EACH DAY...BUT LESS
COVERAGE AND WITH LOW QPF DUE TO A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS.
HOWEVER...LESSER CLOUDCOVER AND CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL. LONGER RANGE MODELS
INDICATE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST (MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK)...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED LOW TO MODERATE POPS
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  90  74  91  74 /  20  30  30  30  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  90  72  90  71 /  20  30  30  30  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  91  73  92  72 /  20  30  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  90  72 /  10  30  30  40  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  88  75  89  75 /  10  20  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  74  89  73 /  10  30  30  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  91  73  91  72 /  10  30  30  40  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  90  73  90  73 /  20  30  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  74  90  73 /  10  40  30  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  91  76  91  75 /  10  30  30  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  91  75  92  75 /  10  30  30  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KEWX 160246 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
946 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL...SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT SKY AND WEATHER GRIDS.
LATEST NAM12...SREF AND RUC13 SOLUTIONS SHOW AN AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY OVER
PARTS OF COMAL...HAYS AND TRAVIS COUNTIES. THEREFORE...INCREASED
POP ACROSS THAT AREA TO A 20%. STILL LOOK GOOD FOR RAIN CHANCE
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS TROPICAL AIRMASS
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH AT LOWER LEVELS AND FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
MID TO UPPER LEVEL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD BACK CLOUD COVER TO VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
07Z DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. SOME ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE
COASTAL BEND IS SUGGESTED TO SHIFT FOCUS TO THE I-35 TAF SITES BY
THE FINER RES MODEL DATA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS NOTED...WILL LEAVE THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
ABUNDANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY THE MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL LOOK AT A POSSIBLE UPDATE FOR THIS SHIFT AS 00Z
MODEL DATA ARRIVES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
ONSHORE INTO DEEP S TX AND NW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT...LEAVING MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT AMOUNTS ARE NEGLIGIBLE AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY 00Z. THE PRIMARY SHORT
RANGE ISSUE IS THE INCREASE IN MOIST AIR...AT LOW AND MID-LEVELS
FROM THE GULF...AND AT MID- AND UPPER LEVELS FROM PACIFIC HURRICANE
ODILE. WE EXPECT SPRINKLES TONIGHT AS THE MOIST GULF AIR (PW OVER
2 INCHES) UNDERGOES GENTLE LIFT DUE TO TERRAIN. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL SOURCE OF LIFT OTHER THAN A WEAK SEA-BREEZE...WE EXPECT
SCATTERED POPS AND MODEST QPF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER AND SCATTERED
STORMS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
ODILE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND IS SHEARED/ABSORBED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. PW SHOULD BE AT OR
ABOVE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER...SO WHEN
COMBINED WITH GENERAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WILL BRING
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SOURCE OF LOW-
LEVEL LIFT AND FOCUS...WE STILL EXPECT QPF TO ONLY BE IN THE 1/4
OT 1/2 INCH RANGE AT MANY SITES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND MAY BE BOLSTERED BY ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. WE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN POPS EACH DAY...BUT LESS
COVERAGE AND WITH LOW QPF DUE TO A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS.
HOWEVER...LESSER CLOUDCOVER AND CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL. LONGER RANGE MODELS
INDICATE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST (MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK)...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED LOW TO MODERATE POPS
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  90  74  91  74 /  20  30  30  30  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  90  72  90  71 /  20  30  30  30  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  91  73  92  72 /  20  30  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  90  72 /  10  30  30  40  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  88  75  89  75 /  10  20  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  74  89  73 /  10  30  30  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  91  73  91  72 /  10  30  30  40  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  90  73  90  73 /  20  30  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  74  90  73 /  10  40  30  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  91  76  91  75 /  10  30  30  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  91  75  92  75 /  10  30  30  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KSJT 160231
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
931 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Hurricane Odile continues to move to the north-northwest over the
southern Baja Peninsula this evening, fighting against the mid-
level ridge anchored over the southern CONUS. Abundant mid/upper-
level moisture is emanating from this system, moving north and
east into West TX. A band of very light rain showers continues
to drift from west to east across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
essentially running from San Angelo to Brownwood. Additional
isolated showers have developed farther north from near Rotan to
Haskell. The environment remains convectively unstable with
theta-e decreasing with height through approximately 500 mb, but
large scale ascent is somewhat weak. There really isn`t much of a
forcing mechanism and MUCAPE values remain less than 1000 J/kg
(per RAP Mesoanalysis). A cold front to the northwest of the area,
running from near Clovis, NM to Gage, OK, continues to mover very
slowly to the south, but shouldn`t reach the forecast area
tonight.

PoPs were maintained in the 20-30% range overnight but the thunder
was removed from the forecast. Any precipitation that develops
overnight should remain light, with QPF amounts typically under
1/10 of an inch. Wind/sky grids were also modified but overnight
temperatures remain on track.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next 24 hours.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible at the
KBBD terminal this evening and have included a TEMPO group for a
couple of hours. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late tonight
into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high cloudiness but
cannot rule out some scattered low clouds developing across the
southern terminals towards daybreak. Scattered convection may
develop Tuesday afternoon but will not include thunder at the
terminals due to uncertainty in timing and coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee.
These showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid
and high level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will
continue to advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak
cold front is currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle
and northwest Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south
overnight and should reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties
around 3 AM. The front is expected to stall along or just north of
I-20 Tuesday morning, before washing out during the afternoon
hours. The best clocalized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts,
however remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants
may reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. WPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  30  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.Shance for rainfall overnight will be across the
Big Country, mainly after midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly
lower than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures
topping out in the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing
the potential for JT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25




000
FXUS64 KSJT 160231
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
931 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Hurricane Odile continues to move to the north-northwest over the
southern Baja Peninsula this evening, fighting against the mid-
level ridge anchored over the southern CONUS. Abundant mid/upper-
level moisture is emanating from this system, moving north and
east into West TX. A band of very light rain showers continues
to drift from west to east across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
essentially running from San Angelo to Brownwood. Additional
isolated showers have developed farther north from near Rotan to
Haskell. The environment remains convectively unstable with
theta-e decreasing with height through approximately 500 mb, but
large scale ascent is somewhat weak. There really isn`t much of a
forcing mechanism and MUCAPE values remain less than 1000 J/kg
(per RAP Mesoanalysis). A cold front to the northwest of the area,
running from near Clovis, NM to Gage, OK, continues to mover very
slowly to the south, but shouldn`t reach the forecast area
tonight.

PoPs were maintained in the 20-30% range overnight but the thunder
was removed from the forecast. Any precipitation that develops
overnight should remain light, with QPF amounts typically under
1/10 of an inch. Wind/sky grids were also modified but overnight
temperatures remain on track.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next 24 hours.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible at the
KBBD terminal this evening and have included a TEMPO group for a
couple of hours. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late tonight
into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high cloudiness but
cannot rule out some scattered low clouds developing across the
southern terminals towards daybreak. Scattered convection may
develop Tuesday afternoon but will not include thunder at the
terminals due to uncertainty in timing and coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee.
These showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid
and high level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will
continue to advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak
cold front is currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle
and northwest Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south
overnight and should reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties
around 3 AM. The front is expected to stall along or just north of
I-20 Tuesday morning, before washing out during the afternoon
hours. The best chance for rainfall overnight will be across the
Big Country, mainly after midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly
lower than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures
topping out in the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing
the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts,
however remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants
may reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. WPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  30  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25




000
FXUS64 KSJT 160231
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
931 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Hurricane Odile continues to move to the north-northwest over the
southern Baja Peninsula this evening, fighting against the mid-
level ridge anchored over the southern CONUS. Abundant mid/upper-
level moisture is emanating from this system, moving north and
east into West TX. A band of very light rain showers continues
to drift from west to east across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
essentially running from San Angelo to Brownwood. Additional
isolated showers have developed farther north from near Rotan to
Haskell. The environment remains convectively unstable with
theta-e decreasing with height through approximately 500 mb, but
large scale ascent is somewhat weak. There really isn`t much of a
forcing mechanism and MUCAPE values remain less than 1000 J/kg
(per RAP Mesoanalysis). A cold front to the northwest of the area,
running from near Clovis, NM to Gage, OK, continues to mover very
slowly to the south, but shouldn`t reach the forecast area
tonight.

PoPs were maintained in the 20-30% range overnight but the thunder
was removed from the forecast. Any precipitation that develops
overnight should remain light, with QPF amounts typically under
1/10 of an inch. Wind/sky grids were also modified but overnight
temperatures remain on track.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next 24 hours.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible at the
KBBD terminal this evening and have included a TEMPO group for a
couple of hours. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late tonight
into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high cloudiness but
cannot rule out some scattered low clouds developing across the
southern terminals towards daybreak. Scattered convection may
develop Tuesday afternoon but will not include thunder at the
terminals due to uncertainty in timing and coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee.
These showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid
and high level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will
continue to advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak
cold front is currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle
and northwest Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south
overnight and should reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties
around 3 AM. The front is expected to stall along or just north of
I-20 Tuesday morning, before washing out during the afternoon
hours. The best chance for rainfall overnight will be across the
Big Country, mainly after midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly
lower than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures
topping out in the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing
the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts,
however remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants
may reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. WPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  30  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25




000
FXUS64 KSJT 160231
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
931 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Hurricane Odile continues to move to the north-northwest over the
southern Baja Peninsula this evening, fighting against the mid-
level ridge anchored over the southern CONUS. Abundant mid/upper-
level moisture is emanating from this system, moving north and
east into West TX. A band of very light rain showers continues
to drift from west to east across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
essentially running from San Angelo to Brownwood. Additional
isolated showers have developed farther north from near Rotan to
Haskell. The environment remains convectively unstable with
theta-e decreasing with height through approximately 500 mb, but
large scale ascent is somewhat weak. There really isn`t much of a
forcing mechanism and MUCAPE values remain less than 1000 J/kg
(per RAP Mesoanalysis). A cold front to the northwest of the area,
running from near Clovis, NM to Gage, OK, continues to mover very
slowly to the south, but shouldn`t reach the forecast area
tonight.

PoPs were maintained in the 20-30% range overnight but the thunder
was removed from the forecast. Any precipitation that develops
overnight should remain light, with QPF amounts typically under
1/10 of an inch. Wind/sky grids were also modified but overnight
temperatures remain on track.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next 24 hours.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible at the
KBBD terminal this evening and have included a TEMPO group for a
couple of hours. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late tonight
into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high cloudiness but
cannot rule out some scattered low clouds developing across the
southern terminals towards daybreak. Scattered convection may
develop Tuesday afternoon but will not include thunder at the
terminals due to uncertainty in timing and coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee.
These showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid
and high level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will
continue to advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak
cold front is currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle
and northwest Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south
overnight and should reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties
around 3 AM. The front is expected to stall along or just north of
I-20 Tuesday morning, before washing out during the afternoon
hours. The best chance for rainfall overnight will be across the
Big Country, mainly after midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly
lower than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures
topping out in the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing
the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts,
however remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants
may reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. WPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  30  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25




000
FXUS64 KSJT 160231
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
931 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
Hurricane Odile continues to move to the north-northwest over the
southern Baja Peninsula this evening, fighting against the mid-
level ridge anchored over the southern CONUS. Abundant mid/upper-
level moisture is emanating from this system, moving north and
east into West TX. A band of very light rain showers continues
to drift from west to east across the Concho Valley and Heartland,
essentially running from San Angelo to Brownwood. Additional
isolated showers have developed farther north from near Rotan to
Haskell. The environment remains convectively unstable with
theta-e decreasing with height through approximately 500 mb, but
large scale ascent is somewhat weak. There really isn`t much of a
forcing mechanism and MUCAPE values remain less than 1000 J/kg
(per RAP Mesoanalysis). A cold front to the northwest of the area,
running from near Clovis, NM to Gage, OK, continues to mover very
slowly to the south, but shouldn`t reach the forecast area
tonight.

PoPs were maintained in the 20-30% range overnight but the thunder
was removed from the forecast. Any precipitation that develops
overnight should remain light, with QPF amounts typically under
1/10 of an inch. Wind/sky grids were also modified but overnight
temperatures remain on track.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next 24 hours.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible at the
KBBD terminal this evening and have included a TEMPO group for a
couple of hours. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late tonight
into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high cloudiness but
cannot rule out some scattered low clouds developing across the
southern terminals towards daybreak. Scattered convection may
develop Tuesday afternoon but will not include thunder at the
terminals due to uncertainty in timing and coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee.
These showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid
and high level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will
continue to advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak
cold front is currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle
and northwest Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south
overnight and should reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties
around 3 AM. The front is expected to stall along or just north of
I-20 Tuesday morning, before washing out during the afternoon
hours. The best chance for rainfall overnight will be across the
Big Country, mainly after midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly
lower than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures
topping out in the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing
the potential for localized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts,
however remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants
may reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. WPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  30  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25




000
FXUS64 KLUB 160219 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
919 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN OUR SRN COUNTIES...OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 160219 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
919 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN OUR SRN COUNTIES...OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/31






000
FXUS64 KFWD 160153
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
853 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20
PERCENT AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
MORE TROUBLE COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED LOWS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. TR.9S

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FAR WEST TEXAS...ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING. IT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND PIVOT MORE NWLY-SELY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...OVER BAJA THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THIS
FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP SKIES BKN140 AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...KACT MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF BKN035 ON
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.

LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED LATER THIS EVENING
IF THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST. MORE VCSH IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS...LESS THAN 7 KNOTS...WILL REMAIN EASTERLY DURING THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL VARY BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. 75


&&




.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE.
EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE
PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS
NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY
INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS
FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR
SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A
WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.     25

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN.    STALLEY 25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  87  74  89  75 /  20  40  20  20  30
WACO, TX              73  87  73  88  73 /  20  40  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             69  84  69  86  69 /  20  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            71  87  71  88  71 /  20  40  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  70  86  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            75  86  74  88  74 /  20  40  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           73  86  71  87  72 /  20  40  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  72  88  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  72  87  72 /  20  40  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  85  70  87  71 /  20  40  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 160153
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
853 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20
PERCENT AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
MORE TROUBLE COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED LOWS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. TR.9S

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FAR WEST TEXAS...ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING. IT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND PIVOT MORE NWLY-SELY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...OVER BAJA THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THIS
FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP SKIES BKN140 AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...KACT MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF BKN035 ON
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.

LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED LATER THIS EVENING
IF THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST. MORE VCSH IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS...LESS THAN 7 KNOTS...WILL REMAIN EASTERLY DURING THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL VARY BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. 75


&&




.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE.
EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE
PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS
NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY
INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS
FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR
SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A
WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.     25

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN.    STALLEY 25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  87  74  89  75 /  20  40  20  20  30
WACO, TX              73  87  73  88  73 /  20  40  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             69  84  69  86  69 /  20  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            71  87  71  88  71 /  20  40  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  70  86  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            75  86  74  88  74 /  20  40  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           73  86  71  87  72 /  20  40  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  72  88  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  72  87  72 /  20  40  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  85  70  87  71 /  20  40  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 160153
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
853 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20
PERCENT AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
MORE TROUBLE COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED LOWS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. TR.9S

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FAR WEST TEXAS...ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING. IT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND PIVOT MORE NWLY-SELY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...OVER BAJA THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THIS
FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP SKIES BKN140 AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...KACT MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF BKN035 ON
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.

LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED LATER THIS EVENING
IF THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST. MORE VCSH IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS...LESS THAN 7 KNOTS...WILL REMAIN EASTERLY DURING THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL VARY BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. 75


&&




.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE.
EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE
PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS
NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY
INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS
FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR
SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A
WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.     25

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN.    STALLEY 25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  87  74  89  75 /  20  40  20  20  30
WACO, TX              73  87  73  88  73 /  20  40  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             69  84  69  86  69 /  20  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            71  87  71  88  71 /  20  40  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  70  86  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            75  86  74  88  74 /  20  40  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           73  86  71  87  72 /  20  40  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  72  88  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  72  87  72 /  20  40  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  85  70  87  71 /  20  40  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 160153
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
853 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE WANE...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20
PERCENT AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
MORE TROUBLE COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED LOWS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. TR.9S

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FAR WEST TEXAS...ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING. IT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND PIVOT MORE NWLY-SELY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...OVER BAJA THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THIS
FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP SKIES BKN140 AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...KACT MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF BKN035 ON
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.

LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED LATER THIS EVENING
IF THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST. MORE VCSH IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS...LESS THAN 7 KNOTS...WILL REMAIN EASTERLY DURING THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL VARY BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. 75


&&




.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE.
EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE
PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS
NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY
INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS
FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR
SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A
WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.     25

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN.    STALLEY 25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  87  74  89  75 /  20  40  20  20  30
WACO, TX              73  87  73  88  73 /  20  40  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             69  84  69  86  69 /  20  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            71  87  71  88  71 /  20  40  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          70  85  70  86  70 /  20  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            75  86  74  88  74 /  20  40  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           73  86  71  87  72 /  20  40  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  72  88  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  72  87  72 /  20  40  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  85  70  87  71 /  20  40  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KHGX 160131
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
831 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS EVENING. A 7 PM ANALYSIS SHOWED A
WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR IAH UNTO SW LA...A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
PSN TO CLL TO GYB...AND A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF
WATERS ABOUT 20 NM OFF THE COAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ALSO
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVE DISSIPATED AS OF 830
PM. DO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WORK THEIR WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF REFLECTS TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST.
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCXO WHERE SOME
LIMITED VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. LEANED MORE ON NAM/WRF/HRRR TO GET
TIMING OF VCSH AND VCTS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF KSGR/KHOU IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY DEVELOP
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR AT 3 PM HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE COAST (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE) MAKING GRADUAL WESTWARD
PROGRESS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OFF THE GULF (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO >2 INCHES) AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA AREA HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK ALMOST EVERYONE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN AT LEAST ONCE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY TRAINING THAT
DEVELOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND (BETTER CHANCES
CENTRAL AND COAST COUNTIES AND LOWER CHANCES UP NORTH). THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT.
OUR AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENTIALLY
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOME TIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AND
START TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 160131
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
831 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS EVENING. A 7 PM ANALYSIS SHOWED A
WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR IAH UNTO SW LA...A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
PSN TO CLL TO GYB...AND A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF
WATERS ABOUT 20 NM OFF THE COAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ALSO
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVE DISSIPATED AS OF 830
PM. DO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WORK THEIR WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF REFLECTS TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST.
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCXO WHERE SOME
LIMITED VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. LEANED MORE ON NAM/WRF/HRRR TO GET
TIMING OF VCSH AND VCTS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF KSGR/KHOU IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY DEVELOP
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR AT 3 PM HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE COAST (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE) MAKING GRADUAL WESTWARD
PROGRESS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OFF THE GULF (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO >2 INCHES) AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA AREA HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK ALMOST EVERYONE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN AT LEAST ONCE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY TRAINING THAT
DEVELOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND (BETTER CHANCES
CENTRAL AND COAST COUNTIES AND LOWER CHANCES UP NORTH). THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT.
OUR AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENTIALLY
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOME TIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AND
START TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 160131
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
831 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS EVENING. A 7 PM ANALYSIS SHOWED A
WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR IAH UNTO SW LA...A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
PSN TO CLL TO GYB...AND A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF
WATERS ABOUT 20 NM OFF THE COAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ALSO
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVE DISSIPATED AS OF 830
PM. DO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WORK THEIR WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF REFLECTS TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST.
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCXO WHERE SOME
LIMITED VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. LEANED MORE ON NAM/WRF/HRRR TO GET
TIMING OF VCSH AND VCTS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF KSGR/KHOU IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY DEVELOP
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR AT 3 PM HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE COAST (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE) MAKING GRADUAL WESTWARD
PROGRESS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OFF THE GULF (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO >2 INCHES) AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA AREA HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK ALMOST EVERYONE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN AT LEAST ONCE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY TRAINING THAT
DEVELOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND (BETTER CHANCES
CENTRAL AND COAST COUNTIES AND LOWER CHANCES UP NORTH). THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT.
OUR AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENTIALLY
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOME TIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AND
START TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 160131
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
831 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS EVENING. A 7 PM ANALYSIS SHOWED A
WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR IAH UNTO SW LA...A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
PSN TO CLL TO GYB...AND A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF
WATERS ABOUT 20 NM OFF THE COAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ALSO
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVE DISSIPATED AS OF 830
PM. DO EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WORK THEIR WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE AS WELL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF REFLECTS TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST.
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCXO WHERE SOME
LIMITED VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. LEANED MORE ON NAM/WRF/HRRR TO GET
TIMING OF VCSH AND VCTS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF KSGR/KHOU IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY DEVELOP
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR AT 3 PM HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE COAST (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE) MAKING GRADUAL WESTWARD
PROGRESS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OFF THE GULF (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO >2 INCHES) AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA AREA HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK ALMOST EVERYONE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN AT LEAST ONCE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY TRAINING THAT
DEVELOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND (BETTER CHANCES
CENTRAL AND COAST COUNTIES AND LOWER CHANCES UP NORTH). THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT.
OUR AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENTIALLY
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOME TIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AND
START TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KBRO 160118 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
818 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER CAMERON COUNTY HAS DISSIPATED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO WITH SOME PATCHY CONV LINGERING
OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE RGV WITH A PWAT OF AROUND 2.6
INCHES. WEAK SURFACE TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL USHER THROUGH
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF CONV ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS WILL MAKE THE TAFS
PROBLEMATIC OVER THE LOWER RGV FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD. SINCE THE
CONV HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR WILL LIKELY GO CLOSE TO
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS
REDUCING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR
LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER AREAS OF CONVECTION.
WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THE TAF WORDING CLOSE TO THE BRO AREA
WITH A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF TRENDS FOR THE HRL AND MFE
AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...COMBINATION OF H5 INVERTED
TROUGH AND BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE STILL PRIMED FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH MOST ATMOSPHERE SFC TO H3 /PW OF 2.38/...SO ANY RAIN FALL
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
PEAK OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE AXES OF
THE TROUGHS WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST...AND WILL BE AIDED BY A BIT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES
RISES TOMORROW...THOUGH...SO HEATING WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
INGREDIENT IN THE OVERALL PRECIP FORECAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S WHERE THERE
IS CLOUD COVER. AREAS OUT WEST MAY SEE SOME DAYTIME SUN EARLY BEFORE
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES IN FRO THE EAST. RESIDUAL ACTIVITY
DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE STREAMER
ACTIVITY REPOPULATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MAKES ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE ASHORE. STABLE LAND MASS REGIME WILL KEEP GULF SHOWERS FROM
REACHING BEYOND ABOUT 30 MILES INLAND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TX. A
500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST COAST THURSDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EXTENDING INTO NORTH TX WILL
PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TX SUNDAY AND INTO SOUTH TX
MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MIDLEVEL LOW WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 4
FEET...GENERALLY WIND WAVE DRIVEN FROM  LOCAL SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  75  85  78 /  50  50  70  40
BROWNSVILLE          86  74  86  75 /  50  50  70  40
HARLINGEN            86  72  86  74 /  50  50  70  40
MCALLEN              87  75  87  75 /  40  30  70  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      90  73  86  74 /  30  20  60  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  76  85  78 /  50  50  70  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...67






000
FXUS64 KBRO 160118 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
818 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER CAMERON COUNTY HAS DISSIPATED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO WITH SOME PATCHY CONV LINGERING
OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE RGV WITH A PWAT OF AROUND 2.6
INCHES. WEAK SURFACE TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL USHER THROUGH
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF CONV ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS WILL MAKE THE TAFS
PROBLEMATIC OVER THE LOWER RGV FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD. SINCE THE
CONV HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR WILL LIKELY GO CLOSE TO
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS
REDUCING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR
LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER AREAS OF CONVECTION.
WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THE TAF WORDING CLOSE TO THE BRO AREA
WITH A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF TRENDS FOR THE HRL AND MFE
AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...COMBINATION OF H5 INVERTED
TROUGH AND BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE STILL PRIMED FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH MOST ATMOSPHERE SFC TO H3 /PW OF 2.38/...SO ANY RAIN FALL
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
PEAK OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE AXES OF
THE TROUGHS WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST...AND WILL BE AIDED BY A BIT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES
RISES TOMORROW...THOUGH...SO HEATING WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
INGREDIENT IN THE OVERALL PRECIP FORECAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S WHERE THERE
IS CLOUD COVER. AREAS OUT WEST MAY SEE SOME DAYTIME SUN EARLY BEFORE
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES IN FRO THE EAST. RESIDUAL ACTIVITY
DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE STREAMER
ACTIVITY REPOPULATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MAKES ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE ASHORE. STABLE LAND MASS REGIME WILL KEEP GULF SHOWERS FROM
REACHING BEYOND ABOUT 30 MILES INLAND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TX. A
500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST COAST THURSDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EXTENDING INTO NORTH TX WILL
PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TX SUNDAY AND INTO SOUTH TX
MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MIDLEVEL LOW WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 4
FEET...GENERALLY WIND WAVE DRIVEN FROM  LOCAL SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  75  85  78 /  50  50  70  40
BROWNSVILLE          86  74  86  75 /  50  50  70  40
HARLINGEN            86  72  86  74 /  50  50  70  40
MCALLEN              87  75  87  75 /  40  30  70  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      90  73  86  74 /  30  20  60  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  76  85  78 /  50  50  70  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...67






000
FXUS64 KBRO 160118 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
818 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER CAMERON COUNTY HAS DISSIPATED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO WITH SOME PATCHY CONV LINGERING
OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE RGV WITH A PWAT OF AROUND 2.6
INCHES. WEAK SURFACE TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL USHER THROUGH
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF CONV ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS WILL MAKE THE TAFS
PROBLEMATIC OVER THE LOWER RGV FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD. SINCE THE
CONV HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR WILL LIKELY GO CLOSE TO
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS
REDUCING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR
LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER AREAS OF CONVECTION.
WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THE TAF WORDING CLOSE TO THE BRO AREA
WITH A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF TRENDS FOR THE HRL AND MFE
AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...COMBINATION OF H5 INVERTED
TROUGH AND BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE STILL PRIMED FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH MOST ATMOSPHERE SFC TO H3 /PW OF 2.38/...SO ANY RAIN FALL
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
PEAK OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE AXES OF
THE TROUGHS WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST...AND WILL BE AIDED BY A BIT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES
RISES TOMORROW...THOUGH...SO HEATING WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
INGREDIENT IN THE OVERALL PRECIP FORECAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S WHERE THERE
IS CLOUD COVER. AREAS OUT WEST MAY SEE SOME DAYTIME SUN EARLY BEFORE
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES IN FRO THE EAST. RESIDUAL ACTIVITY
DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE STREAMER
ACTIVITY REPOPULATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MAKES ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE ASHORE. STABLE LAND MASS REGIME WILL KEEP GULF SHOWERS FROM
REACHING BEYOND ABOUT 30 MILES INLAND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TX. A
500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST COAST THURSDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EXTENDING INTO NORTH TX WILL
PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TX SUNDAY AND INTO SOUTH TX
MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MIDLEVEL LOW WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 4
FEET...GENERALLY WIND WAVE DRIVEN FROM  LOCAL SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  75  85  78 /  50  50  70  40
BROWNSVILLE          86  74  86  75 /  50  50  70  40
HARLINGEN            86  72  86  74 /  50  50  70  40
MCALLEN              87  75  87  75 /  40  30  70  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      90  73  86  74 /  30  20  60  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  76  85  78 /  50  50  70  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...67






000
FXUS64 KBRO 160118 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
818 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER CAMERON COUNTY HAS DISSIPATED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO WITH SOME PATCHY CONV LINGERING
OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE RGV WITH A PWAT OF AROUND 2.6
INCHES. WEAK SURFACE TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY WEST AND NORTH WHICH WILL USHER THROUGH
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF CONV ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE
THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS WILL MAKE THE TAFS
PROBLEMATIC OVER THE LOWER RGV FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD. SINCE THE
CONV HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR WILL LIKELY GO CLOSE TO
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WITH PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS
REDUCING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR
LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER AREAS OF CONVECTION.
WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THE TAF WORDING CLOSE TO THE BRO AREA
WITH A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF TRENDS FOR THE HRL AND MFE
AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...COMBINATION OF H5 INVERTED
TROUGH AND BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE STILL PRIMED FOR HEAVY
RAIN WITH MOST ATMOSPHERE SFC TO H3 /PW OF 2.38/...SO ANY RAIN FALL
THAT DOES OCCUR WILL DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.
PEAK OF RAINFALL LIKELY TO BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS THE AXES OF
THE TROUGHS WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST...AND WILL BE AIDED BY A BIT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURES
RISES TOMORROW...THOUGH...SO HEATING WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
INGREDIENT IN THE OVERALL PRECIP FORECAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY...STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 80S WHERE THERE
IS CLOUD COVER. AREAS OUT WEST MAY SEE SOME DAYTIME SUN EARLY BEFORE
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES IN FRO THE EAST. RESIDUAL ACTIVITY
DRIFTS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE STREAMER
ACTIVITY REPOPULATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MAKES ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE ASHORE. STABLE LAND MASS REGIME WILL KEEP GULF SHOWERS FROM
REACHING BEYOND ABOUT 30 MILES INLAND.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TX. A
500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST COAST THURSDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EXTENDING INTO NORTH TX WILL
PROVIDE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTH TX SUNDAY AND INTO SOUTH TX
MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROPICAL WAVE AND MIDLEVEL LOW WILL
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3 TO 4
FEET...GENERALLY WIND WAVE DRIVEN FROM  LOCAL SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  75  85  78 /  50  50  70  40
BROWNSVILLE          86  74  86  75 /  50  50  70  40
HARLINGEN            86  72  86  74 /  50  50  70  40
MCALLEN              87  75  87  75 /  40  30  70  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      90  73  86  74 /  30  20  60  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  76  85  78 /  50  50  70  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...67






000
FXUS64 KCRP 160042
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
742 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (VFR) WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING
AS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE GULF.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE VCT AREA THROUGH MID EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS (MVFR). SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND 1500
FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY IN THE IFR RANGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ABOUNDANT MOISTURE
AXIS WITH TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOW LOCATED
IN THE MARINE ZONES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
COUNTY ZONES AS WELL. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE AXIS TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY GRADUALLY INCREASE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. GOES SOUNDER DERIVED PWAT VALUES HAVE INCREASED ABOVE
2.1 OVER THE COASTAL BEND THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT TO INCREASE
MORE OVERNIGHT. HAVE POPS UP TO 70 PERCENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA...BUT EXPECT EVERYONE TO SEE RAIN
TOMORROW. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER HAVE
AREAWIDE ESTIMATES LESS THAN ONE INCH TOTAL AT THIS TIME SO WILL
NOT CONSIDER ANY HYDRO WATCHES. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBER ON THE
ORDER OF 3-4 INCHES IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE A
FEW SITES COULD APPROACH THOSE NUMBERS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
WELL BELOW.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE LAST NIGHTS "COOL"
MINIMUMS. SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE BOARD AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. TOMORROW HIGHS A BIT TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN EXPECTED. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS COOLER IN THE
EAST WITH RAIN STARTING EARLIER...AND WARMER WEST WHERE THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF FOR SOME DAYTIME WARMING TO OCCUR.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST TO WEST...BUT
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAIN
PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS PROGD
TO DISSIPATE AS IT EXITS TO THE W ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS S TX. MODELS PROG A MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ARE PROGD TO ROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL PERIODICALLY PROVIDE SOME
WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. EXPECTING MAINLY AN ACTIVE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY WITH SCT CONVECTION STARTING OFF IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES THEN SPREADING INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON. KEPT THE 30-50 POPS FOR WED AND THU THEN 20-40 POPS
FRI AND DECREASING SAT AND SUN BUT WITH CONVECTION REMAINING IN THE
FCST. BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS PROG A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH OR MOVE INTO S TX BY NEXT MON...BUT WILL HOLD GOING WITH A
HIGHER POP THAN 20 PERCENT THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. KEPT TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES BUT WAS 2-4 DEGREES BELOW MEX GUIDANCE VALUES WED
AND THU. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD FROM THE SE AND AT
TIMES E THEN NE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD PER THE MODEL SOLNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  85  76  89  76  /  30  70  40  50  30
VICTORIA          74  86  74  88  74  /  20  50  40  50  30
LAREDO            73  87  77  94  78  /  20  50  40  40  30
ALICE             74  86  75  90  75  /  20  70  30  50  30
ROCKPORT          78  84  79  89  78  /  40  60  40  50  30
COTULLA           73  89  75  94  75  /  10  40  30  30  30
KINGSVILLE        74  86  75  90  75  /  30  70  40  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       78  84  79  89  79  /  40  70  40  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 160042
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
742 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (VFR) WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING
AS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE GULF.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE VCT AREA THROUGH MID EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS (MVFR). SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND 1500
FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY IN THE IFR RANGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ABOUNDANT MOISTURE
AXIS WITH TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOW LOCATED
IN THE MARINE ZONES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
COUNTY ZONES AS WELL. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE AXIS TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY GRADUALLY INCREASE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. GOES SOUNDER DERIVED PWAT VALUES HAVE INCREASED ABOVE
2.1 OVER THE COASTAL BEND THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT TO INCREASE
MORE OVERNIGHT. HAVE POPS UP TO 70 PERCENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA...BUT EXPECT EVERYONE TO SEE RAIN
TOMORROW. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER HAVE
AREAWIDE ESTIMATES LESS THAN ONE INCH TOTAL AT THIS TIME SO WILL
NOT CONSIDER ANY HYDRO WATCHES. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBER ON THE
ORDER OF 3-4 INCHES IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE A
FEW SITES COULD APPROACH THOSE NUMBERS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
WELL BELOW.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE LAST NIGHTS "COOL"
MINIMUMS. SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE BOARD AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. TOMORROW HIGHS A BIT TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN EXPECTED. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS COOLER IN THE
EAST WITH RAIN STARTING EARLIER...AND WARMER WEST WHERE THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF FOR SOME DAYTIME WARMING TO OCCUR.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST TO WEST...BUT
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAIN
PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS PROGD
TO DISSIPATE AS IT EXITS TO THE W ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS S TX. MODELS PROG A MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ARE PROGD TO ROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL PERIODICALLY PROVIDE SOME
WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. EXPECTING MAINLY AN ACTIVE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY WITH SCT CONVECTION STARTING OFF IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES THEN SPREADING INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON. KEPT THE 30-50 POPS FOR WED AND THU THEN 20-40 POPS
FRI AND DECREASING SAT AND SUN BUT WITH CONVECTION REMAINING IN THE
FCST. BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS PROG A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH OR MOVE INTO S TX BY NEXT MON...BUT WILL HOLD GOING WITH A
HIGHER POP THAN 20 PERCENT THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. KEPT TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES BUT WAS 2-4 DEGREES BELOW MEX GUIDANCE VALUES WED
AND THU. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD FROM THE SE AND AT
TIMES E THEN NE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD PER THE MODEL SOLNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  85  76  89  76  /  30  70  40  50  30
VICTORIA          74  86  74  88  74  /  20  50  40  50  30
LAREDO            73  87  77  94  78  /  20  50  40  40  30
ALICE             74  86  75  90  75  /  20  70  30  50  30
ROCKPORT          78  84  79  89  78  /  40  60  40  50  30
COTULLA           73  89  75  94  75  /  10  40  30  30  30
KINGSVILLE        74  86  75  90  75  /  30  70  40  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       78  84  79  89  79  /  40  70  40  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KEWX 152357
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
657 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD BACK CLOUD COVER TO VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
07Z DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. SOME ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE
COASTAL BEND IS SUGGESTED TO SHIFT FOCUS TO THE I-35 TAF SITES BY
THE FINER RES MODEL DATA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS NOTED...WILL LEAVE THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
ABUNDANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY THE MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL LOOK AT A POSSIBLE UPDATE FOR THIS SHIFT AS 00Z
MODEL DATA ARRIVES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
ONSHORE INTO DEEP S TX AND NW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT...LEAVING MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT AMOUNTS ARE NEGLIGIBLE AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY 00Z. THE PRIMARY SHORT
RANGE ISSUE IS THE INCREASE IN MOIST AIR...AT LOW AND MID-LEVELS
FROM THE GULF...AND AT MID- AND UPPER LEVELS FROM PACIFIC HURRICANE
ODILE. WE EXPECT SPRINKLES TONIGHT AS THE MOIST GULF AIR (PW OVER
2 INCHES) UNDERGOES GENTLE LIFT DUE TO TERRAIN. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL SOURCE OF LIFT OTHER THAN A WEAK SEA-BREEZE...WE EXPECT
SCATTERED POPS AND MODEST QPF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER AND SCATTERED
STORMS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
ODILE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND IS SHEARED/ABSORBED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. PW SHOULD BE AT OR
ABOVE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER...SO WHEN
COMBINED WITH GENERAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WILL BRING
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SOURCE OF LOW-
LEVEL LIFT AND FOCUS...WE STILL EXPECT QPF TO ONLY BE IN THE 1/4
OT 1/2 INCH RANGE AT MANY SITES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND MAY BE BOLSTERED BY ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. WE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN POPS EACH DAY...BUT LESS
COVERAGE AND WITH LOW QPF DUE TO A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS.
HOWEVER...LESSER CLOUDCOVER AND CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL. LONGER RANGE MODELS
INDICATE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST (MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK)...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED LOW TO MODERATE POPS
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  90  74  91  74 /  10  30  30  30  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  90  72  90  71 /  10  30  30  30  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  91  73  92  72 /  10  30  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  90  72 /  10  30  30  40  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  88  75  89  75 /  10  20  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  74  89  73 /  10  30  30  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  91  73  91  72 /  10  30  30  40  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  90  73  90  73 /  10  30  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  74  90  73 /  10  40  30  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  91  76  91  75 /  10  30  30  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  91  75  92  75 /  10  30  30  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 152357
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
657 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD BACK CLOUD COVER TO VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
07Z DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. SOME ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE
COASTAL BEND IS SUGGESTED TO SHIFT FOCUS TO THE I-35 TAF SITES BY
THE FINER RES MODEL DATA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS NOTED...WILL LEAVE THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
ABUNDANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY THE MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL LOOK AT A POSSIBLE UPDATE FOR THIS SHIFT AS 00Z
MODEL DATA ARRIVES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
ONSHORE INTO DEEP S TX AND NW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT...LEAVING MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT AMOUNTS ARE NEGLIGIBLE AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY 00Z. THE PRIMARY SHORT
RANGE ISSUE IS THE INCREASE IN MOIST AIR...AT LOW AND MID-LEVELS
FROM THE GULF...AND AT MID- AND UPPER LEVELS FROM PACIFIC HURRICANE
ODILE. WE EXPECT SPRINKLES TONIGHT AS THE MOIST GULF AIR (PW OVER
2 INCHES) UNDERGOES GENTLE LIFT DUE TO TERRAIN. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL SOURCE OF LIFT OTHER THAN A WEAK SEA-BREEZE...WE EXPECT
SCATTERED POPS AND MODEST QPF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER AND SCATTERED
STORMS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
ODILE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND IS SHEARED/ABSORBED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. PW SHOULD BE AT OR
ABOVE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER...SO WHEN
COMBINED WITH GENERAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WILL BRING
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SOURCE OF LOW-
LEVEL LIFT AND FOCUS...WE STILL EXPECT QPF TO ONLY BE IN THE 1/4
OT 1/2 INCH RANGE AT MANY SITES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND MAY BE BOLSTERED BY ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. WE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN POPS EACH DAY...BUT LESS
COVERAGE AND WITH LOW QPF DUE TO A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS.
HOWEVER...LESSER CLOUDCOVER AND CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL. LONGER RANGE MODELS
INDICATE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST (MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK)...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED LOW TO MODERATE POPS
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  90  74  91  74 /  10  30  30  30  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  90  72  90  71 /  10  30  30  30  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  91  73  92  72 /  10  30  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  90  72 /  10  30  30  40  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  88  75  89  75 /  10  20  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  74  89  73 /  10  30  30  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  91  73  91  72 /  10  30  30  40  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  90  73  90  73 /  10  30  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  74  90  73 /  10  40  30  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  91  76  91  75 /  10  30  30  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  91  75  92  75 /  10  30  30  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 152357
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
657 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD BACK CLOUD COVER TO VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
07Z DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. SOME ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE
COASTAL BEND IS SUGGESTED TO SHIFT FOCUS TO THE I-35 TAF SITES BY
THE FINER RES MODEL DATA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS NOTED...WILL LEAVE THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
ABUNDANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY THE MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL LOOK AT A POSSIBLE UPDATE FOR THIS SHIFT AS 00Z
MODEL DATA ARRIVES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
ONSHORE INTO DEEP S TX AND NW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT...LEAVING MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT AMOUNTS ARE NEGLIGIBLE AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY 00Z. THE PRIMARY SHORT
RANGE ISSUE IS THE INCREASE IN MOIST AIR...AT LOW AND MID-LEVELS
FROM THE GULF...AND AT MID- AND UPPER LEVELS FROM PACIFIC HURRICANE
ODILE. WE EXPECT SPRINKLES TONIGHT AS THE MOIST GULF AIR (PW OVER
2 INCHES) UNDERGOES GENTLE LIFT DUE TO TERRAIN. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL SOURCE OF LIFT OTHER THAN A WEAK SEA-BREEZE...WE EXPECT
SCATTERED POPS AND MODEST QPF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER AND SCATTERED
STORMS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
ODILE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND IS SHEARED/ABSORBED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. PW SHOULD BE AT OR
ABOVE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER...SO WHEN
COMBINED WITH GENERAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WILL BRING
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SOURCE OF LOW-
LEVEL LIFT AND FOCUS...WE STILL EXPECT QPF TO ONLY BE IN THE 1/4
OT 1/2 INCH RANGE AT MANY SITES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND MAY BE BOLSTERED BY ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. WE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN POPS EACH DAY...BUT LESS
COVERAGE AND WITH LOW QPF DUE TO A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS.
HOWEVER...LESSER CLOUDCOVER AND CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL. LONGER RANGE MODELS
INDICATE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST (MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK)...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED LOW TO MODERATE POPS
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  90  74  91  74 /  10  30  30  30  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  90  72  90  71 /  10  30  30  30  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  91  73  92  72 /  10  30  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  90  72 /  10  30  30  40  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  88  75  89  75 /  10  20  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  74  89  73 /  10  30  30  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  91  73  91  72 /  10  30  30  40  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  90  73  90  73 /  10  30  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  74  90  73 /  10  40  30  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  91  76  91  75 /  10  30  30  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  91  75  92  75 /  10  30  30  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 152357
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
657 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD BACK CLOUD COVER TO VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
07Z DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. SOME ISOLATED SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE
COASTAL BEND IS SUGGESTED TO SHIFT FOCUS TO THE I-35 TAF SITES BY
THE FINER RES MODEL DATA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS NOTED...WILL LEAVE THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
ABUNDANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS COULD DELAY THE MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL LOOK AT A POSSIBLE UPDATE FOR THIS SHIFT AS 00Z
MODEL DATA ARRIVES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
ONSHORE INTO DEEP S TX AND NW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT...LEAVING MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT AMOUNTS ARE NEGLIGIBLE AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF OUR AREA BY 00Z. THE PRIMARY SHORT
RANGE ISSUE IS THE INCREASE IN MOIST AIR...AT LOW AND MID-LEVELS
FROM THE GULF...AND AT MID- AND UPPER LEVELS FROM PACIFIC HURRICANE
ODILE. WE EXPECT SPRINKLES TONIGHT AS THE MOIST GULF AIR (PW OVER
2 INCHES) UNDERGOES GENTLE LIFT DUE TO TERRAIN. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL SOURCE OF LIFT OTHER THAN A WEAK SEA-BREEZE...WE EXPECT
SCATTERED POPS AND MODEST QPF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER AND SCATTERED
STORMS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
ODILE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND IS SHEARED/ABSORBED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. PW SHOULD BE AT OR
ABOVE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER...SO WHEN
COMBINED WITH GENERAL LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WILL BRING
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A SOURCE OF LOW-
LEVEL LIFT AND FOCUS...WE STILL EXPECT QPF TO ONLY BE IN THE 1/4
OT 1/2 INCH RANGE AT MANY SITES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND MAY BE BOLSTERED BY ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. WE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN POPS EACH DAY...BUT LESS
COVERAGE AND WITH LOW QPF DUE TO A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL FOCUS.
HOWEVER...LESSER CLOUDCOVER AND CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL. LONGER RANGE MODELS
INDICATE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST (MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK)...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED LOW TO MODERATE POPS
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  90  74  91  74 /  10  30  30  30  50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  90  72  90  71 /  10  30  30  30  50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  91  73  92  72 /  10  30  30  30  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  88  72  90  72 /  10  30  30  40  50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  88  75  89  75 /  10  20  30  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        72  88  74  89  73 /  10  30  30  30  50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  91  73  91  72 /  10  30  30  40  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  90  73  90  73 /  10  30  30  30  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  90  74  90  73 /  10  40  30  30  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  91  76  91  75 /  10  30  30  30  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  91  75  92  75 /  10  30  30  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KHGX 152342
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF REFLECTS TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST.
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGH INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCXO WHERE SOME
LIMITED VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. LEANED MORE ON NAM/WRF/HRRR TO GET
TIMING OF VCSH AND VCTS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF KSGR/KHOU IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY DEVELOP
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR AT 3 PM HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE COAST (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE) MAKING GRADUAL WESTWARD
PROGRESS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OFF THE GULF (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO >2 INCHES) AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA AREA HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK ALMOST EVERYONE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN AT LEAST ONCE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY TRAINING THAT
DEVELOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND (BETTER CHANCES
CENTRAL AND COAST COUNTIES AND LOWER CHANCES UP NORTH). THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT.
OUR AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENTIALLY
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOME TIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AND
START TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 152342
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF REFLECTS TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST.
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGH INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCXO WHERE SOME
LIMITED VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. LEANED MORE ON NAM/WRF/HRRR TO GET
TIMING OF VCSH AND VCTS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF KSGR/KHOU IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY DEVELOP
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR AT 3 PM HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE COAST (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE) MAKING GRADUAL WESTWARD
PROGRESS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OFF THE GULF (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO >2 INCHES) AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA AREA HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK ALMOST EVERYONE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN AT LEAST ONCE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY TRAINING THAT
DEVELOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND (BETTER CHANCES
CENTRAL AND COAST COUNTIES AND LOWER CHANCES UP NORTH). THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT.
OUR AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENTIALLY
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOME TIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AND
START TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 152342
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF REFLECTS TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST.
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGH INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCXO WHERE SOME
LIMITED VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. LEANED MORE ON NAM/WRF/HRRR TO GET
TIMING OF VCSH AND VCTS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF KSGR/KHOU IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY DEVELOP
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR AT 3 PM HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE COAST (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE) MAKING GRADUAL WESTWARD
PROGRESS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OFF THE GULF (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO >2 INCHES) AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA AREA HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK ALMOST EVERYONE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN AT LEAST ONCE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY TRAINING THAT
DEVELOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND (BETTER CHANCES
CENTRAL AND COAST COUNTIES AND LOWER CHANCES UP NORTH). THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT.
OUR AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENTIALLY
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOME TIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AND
START TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 152342
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION...

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS OVER THE GULF REFLECTS TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE LOWER
TX COAST WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER TX COAST.
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND TONIGH INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE KCXO WHERE SOME
LIMITED VSBY MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. LEANED MORE ON NAM/WRF/HRRR TO GET
TIMING OF VCSH AND VCTS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
SOUTH OF KSGR/KHOU IN THE MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY DEVELOP
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE EVENING HRS TOMORROW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR AT 3 PM HAS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE COAST (ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE) MAKING GRADUAL WESTWARD
PROGRESS...AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE) MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS OFF THE GULF (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RISING TO >2 INCHES) AND WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAJA AREA HURRICANE ODILE WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THINK ALMOST EVERYONE WILL SEE
SOME RAIN AT LEAST ONCE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ANY TRAINING THAT
DEVELOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASILY LEAD TO SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
TOTALS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND (BETTER CHANCES
CENTRAL AND COAST COUNTIES AND LOWER CHANCES UP NORTH). THERE ARE STILL
TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK`S COLD FRONT.
OUR AREA SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POTENTIALLY
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOME TIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCEC CRITERIA AND
START TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN STRONGER STORMS. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS HEIGHTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE 3K BY
THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW MORNING GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES THANKS TO PATCHY FOG BUT GIVEN THE
CIRRUS OVERHEAD HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. TOMORROW RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND
SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. FOR OUR AREA THE WAVE WILL ADVECT MOIST AIR
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND K
INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE THOUGH. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF RAIN TO TAF SITES KIAH AND SOUTHWARDS. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  87  74  87  75 /  20  40  30  40  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  87  75  87  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  87  79  87  80 /  30  60  40  50  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KLUB 152341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  30  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33





000
FXUS64 KAMA 152333
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THREE TAF SITES AS OF 00Z TUESDAY
AND WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
14Z TO 16Z TUESDAY. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE DALHART AND GUYMON
TAF SITES WILL BECOME LIFR TO VLIFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER
00Z TO 02Z TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING MVFR TO VFR AGAIN AFTER 14Z TO 16Z
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE WILL QUICKLY BECOME
MVFR TO IFR AFTER 01Z TO 03Z TUESDAY AND MAY BECOME VLIFR TO IFR DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AFTER 16Z
TO 18Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO BE A THORN IN THE SIDE OF OUR FORECAST.
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PANHANDLES
EARLIER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WE
NOW HAVE RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE...AND THERE ARE EVEN A FEW INDICATIONS THAT THIS MAY NOT
BE EARLY ENOUGH. ALL IN ALL...THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE DOING
PRETTY GOOD BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

TONIGHT...
LOOKING UPSTREAM INTO KS AT THIS HOUR...THINK SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SRN TX PANHANDLE.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT THERE COULD BE A BIT OF PRECIP IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE TUE-THU.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/19





000
FXUS64 KAMA 152333
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THREE TAF SITES AS OF 00Z TUESDAY
AND WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
14Z TO 16Z TUESDAY. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE DALHART AND GUYMON
TAF SITES WILL BECOME LIFR TO VLIFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER
00Z TO 02Z TUESDAY...THEN BECOMING MVFR TO VFR AGAIN AFTER 14Z TO 16Z
TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE WILL QUICKLY BECOME
MVFR TO IFR AFTER 01Z TO 03Z TUESDAY AND MAY BECOME VLIFR TO IFR DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER 04Z TO 06Z TUESDAY. MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AFTER 16Z
TO 18Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO BE A THORN IN THE SIDE OF OUR FORECAST.
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PANHANDLES
EARLIER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WE
NOW HAVE RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE...AND THERE ARE EVEN A FEW INDICATIONS THAT THIS MAY NOT
BE EARLY ENOUGH. ALL IN ALL...THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE DOING
PRETTY GOOD BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

TONIGHT...
LOOKING UPSTREAM INTO KS AT THIS HOUR...THINK SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SRN TX PANHANDLE.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT THERE COULD BE A BIT OF PRECIP IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE TUE-THU.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/19






000
FXUS64 KFWD 152326 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FAR WEST TEXAS...ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING. IT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND PIVOT MORE NWLY-SELY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...OVER BAJA THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THIS
FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP SKIES BKN140 AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...KACT MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF BKN035 ON
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.

LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED LATER THIS EVENING
IF THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST. MORE VCSH IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS...LESS THAN 7 KNOTS...WILL REMAIN EASTERLY DURING THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL VARY BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. 75

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE.
EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE
PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS
NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY
INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS
FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR
SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A
WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.     25

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN.    STALLEY 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  87  74  89  75 /  30  40  20  20  30
WACO, TX              72  87  73  88  73 /  20  40  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             68  84  69  86  69 /  30  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            70  87  71  88  71 /  30  40  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          69  85  70  86  70 /  30  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            73  86  74  88  74 /  30  40  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           71  86  71  87  72 /  20  40  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  72  88  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  72  87  72 /  20  40  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  85  70  87  71 /  30  40  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/





000
FXUS64 KFWD 152326 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FAR WEST TEXAS...ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING. IT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND PIVOT MORE NWLY-SELY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...OVER BAJA THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THIS
FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP SKIES BKN140 AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...KACT MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF BKN035 ON
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.

LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED LATER THIS EVENING
IF THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST. MORE VCSH IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS...LESS THAN 7 KNOTS...WILL REMAIN EASTERLY DURING THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL VARY BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. 75

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE.
EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE
PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS
NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY
INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS
FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR
SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A
WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.     25

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN.    STALLEY 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  87  74  89  75 /  30  40  20  20  30
WACO, TX              72  87  73  88  73 /  20  40  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             68  84  69  86  69 /  30  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            70  87  71  88  71 /  30  40  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          69  85  70  86  70 /  30  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            73  86  74  88  74 /  30  40  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           71  86  71  87  72 /  20  40  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  72  88  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  72  87  72 /  20  40  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  85  70  87  71 /  30  40  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/





000
FXUS64 KFWD 152326 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FAR WEST TEXAS...ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING. IT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND PIVOT MORE NWLY-SELY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...OVER BAJA THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THIS
FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP SKIES BKN140 AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...KACT MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF BKN035 ON
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.

LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED LATER THIS EVENING
IF THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST. MORE VCSH IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS...LESS THAN 7 KNOTS...WILL REMAIN EASTERLY DURING THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL VARY BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. 75

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE.
EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE
PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS
NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY
INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS
FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR
SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A
WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.     25

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN.    STALLEY 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  87  74  89  75 /  30  40  20  20  30
WACO, TX              72  87  73  88  73 /  20  40  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             68  84  69  86  69 /  30  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            70  87  71  88  71 /  30  40  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          69  85  70  86  70 /  30  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            73  86  74  88  74 /  30  40  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           71  86  71  87  72 /  20  40  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  72  88  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  72  87  72 /  20  40  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  85  70  87  71 /  30  40  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/





000
FXUS64 KFWD 152326 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FAR WEST TEXAS...ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING. IT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND PIVOT MORE NWLY-SELY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE...OVER BAJA THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THIS
FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP SKIES BKN140 AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...KACT MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF BKN035 ON
TUESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK.

LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE TAF SITES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED LATER THIS EVENING
IF THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST. MORE VCSH IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS...LESS THAN 7 KNOTS...WILL REMAIN EASTERLY DURING THE
FORECAST...BUT WILL VARY BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. 75

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS CONTINUALLY INVADED BY MOISTURE/ENERGY FROM ODILE.
EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE HAS AIDED IN THE
PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THESE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
LARGELY DEVOID OF THUNDER. ALTHOUGH BENIGN...THIS ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TO ERODE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ALOFT.

THE HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO REGAIN CONTROL ON TUESDAY...BUT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ODILE WILL DISRUPT THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE
MID-LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE SURFACE FOCUS
NECESSARY TO REALIZE THE INSTABILITY IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MAY SEAMLESSLY TRANSITION INTO AFTERNOON SURFACE-
BASED SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEALED. REGARDLESS...WITH WEAKENING WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 20KFT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT WITH STEADILY
INCREASING PW VALUES...POTENTIALLY TOPPING 2 INCHES ON TUESDAY...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
CELLS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUS
FOR INITIATION LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE AND THE WEAK SHEAR
SHORTENING THE LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS.

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ON WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...A
WEAKNESS MAY LINGER IN THE MID-LEVELS ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES UNTIL PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.     25

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CMC DEPICTING A BROAD TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME CAN BE PINNED DOWN.    STALLEY 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  87  74  89  75 /  30  40  20  20  30
WACO, TX              72  87  73  88  73 /  20  40  30  30  40
PARIS, TX             68  84  69  86  69 /  30  30  20  20  20
DENTON, TX            70  87  71  88  71 /  30  40  20  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          69  85  70  86  70 /  30  40  20  20  20
DALLAS, TX            73  86  74  88  74 /  30  40  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX           71  86  71  87  72 /  20  40  20  20  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  72  88  72 /  20  40  20  30  30
TEMPLE, TX            71  87  72  87  72 /  20  40  30  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  85  70  87  71 /  30  40  20  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/





000
FXUS64 KSJT 152324
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
624 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next 24 hours.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible at the
KBBD terminal this evening and have included a TEMPO group for a
couple of hours. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late tonight
into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high cloudiness but
cannot rule out some scattered low clouds developing across the
southern terminals towards daybreak. Scattered convection may
develop Tuesday afternoon but will not include thunder at the
terminals due to uncertainty in timing and coverage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee. These
showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid and high
level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will continue to
advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak cold front is
currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle and northwest
Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south overnight and should
reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties around 3 AM. The front is
expected to stall along or just north of I-20 Tuesday morning,
before washing out during the afternoon hours. The best chance for
rainfall overnight will be across the Big Country, mainly after
midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly lower
than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures topping out in
the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing the
potential for localized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts, however
remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants may
reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. HPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21








000
FXUS64 KSJT 152324
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
624 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions expected at the terminals the next 24 hours.
Abundant mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
tonight into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible at the
KBBD terminal this evening and have included a TEMPO group for a
couple of hours. Widespread stratus appears unlikely late tonight
into Tuesday morning due to extensive mid and high cloudiness but
cannot rule out some scattered low clouds developing across the
southern terminals towards daybreak. Scattered convection may
develop Tuesday afternoon but will not include thunder at the
terminals due to uncertainty in timing and coverage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee. These
showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid and high
level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will continue to
advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak cold front is
currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle and northwest
Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south overnight and should
reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties around 3 AM. The front is
expected to stall along or just north of I-20 Tuesday morning,
before washing out during the afternoon hours. The best chance for
rainfall overnight will be across the Big Country, mainly after
midnight as the front enters the area.

Maintaining chance POPs for Tuesday as weak shortwave energy from
the remnants of Odile move across the tropical airmass in place
across West Texas. Additional convection will also be possible due
to outflow boundary interactions along and south of the decaying
front. Low temperatures tonight will be near 70. Went slightly lower
than guidance for highs on Tuesday, with temperatures topping out in
the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night into Monday)

Tropical moisture will remain over West Central Texas this week,
as Hurricane Odile weakens to depression over Baja California.
While the main remnants of Odile will stay west and north of the
region, weak disturbances will likely ripple eastward across West
Central Texas, especially Wednesday afternoon into Thursday,
Precipitable Water increases to 2 inches at this time, bringing the
potential for localized heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts, however
remain uncertain, as high cloudiness from Odile remnants may
reduced daytime heating, and thus instability and rainfall
amounts. Rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are certainly
possible however.

Keeping rain chances in Friday into Saturday with moist tropical
airmass over the region. Any weak disturbance could produce
isolated showers.

Cold front indicated this weekend. GFS model has it moving
through Saturday night/Sunday morning, while the EC is 24 hours
slower. HPC extended discussion indicated a 50-50 blend of the
two models, so best chance of the front would be on Sunday.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible as the front at moves through
the tropical air mass, but uncertainly remains on its timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  70  87  69 /  30  40  30  40  60
San Angelo  69  85  71  87  71 /  20  40  30  50  60
Junction  69  86  72  87  71 /  20  30  30  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KMAF 152301
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail overnight, but MVFR ceilings are
expected to form late.  Will include temporary MVFR, and a few
IFR, ceilings and visibilities at all but KFST and KPEQ for now.
A weak cold front will move south into the region late tonight,
and likely promote development of more MVFR ceilings.  KHOB is
most likely to be affected.  Ceilings should rise through late
morning, but TSRA will be possible at most TAF sites Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Atmospheric moisture content remains high with mid level theta-e
ridge extending wsw-ene across the area and today PWs are about
125% of normal. Precip will be mostly confined to the far w-sw
CWFA due to closer proximity of rich moisture and source region
for shrtwv trof within the deep sly flow between Odile and ridging
to the e. A cold front moving into Panhandle will slowly move s
overnight arriving in the nrn PB just before 12Z. By 18Z Tue the
front will be near coincident with mid level theta-e ridge (INVOF
I-20). Low level convergence looks to be maximized around 18Z Tue
along the front and SHRA/TSRA may develop well before 18Z. 12Z
METMOS has come in wet from HOB...MAF...BPG. It`s hard to discern
shrtwv trof INVOF front so will not go as high as METMOS PoPs, but
will keep chance PoPs going. By early Wed morning a shrtwv trof
will be across far W TX and with renewed low level mstr transport
SHRA/TSRA are again expected. Ensemble NAEFS/GEFS data suggest PWs
will be anomalously high (150% of normal) and heavy rain will be a
concern, especially across the higher terrain of GDP/Delaware
Mtns, but also parts of SE NM in evening hrs. Will opt to ramp up
PoPs across the w Wed PM/Wed night with heavy rain wording. Meanwhile
the remnants of Odile will get caught up in sw mid level flow by
Thur AM. Although the remnant circulation will remain to the nw of
the CWFA a rich mid level theta-e ridge axis will move across much
of the area Thur PM and low level mstr transport will increase
early with general lift indicated in OMEGA/Q vector fields. Thus
precip will be favored to continue. SE NM again looks to be the
favored area, including heavy rain. Flash flood watches may
eventually be needed from Culberson into the SE NM. Precip will
have a good chance to continue even into Friday as shearing
vorticity axis remains to the w or slowly moves across. There are
big differences in models Sat/Sun as GFS brings a front in Sat
evening/ECMWF Sun PM, but models continue to develop precip along
the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  77  67  74  /  30  50  20  50
BIG SPRING TX              69  81  69  79  /  20  50  20  40
CARLSBAD NM                67  75  68  75  /  30  40  30  50
DRYDEN TX                  71  86  72  86  /  20  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  80  68  81  /  20  10  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  72  60  70  /  30  50  50  50
HOBBS NM                   64  76  64  74  /  30  50  20  50
MARFA TX                   60  76  61  76  /  30  40  20  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  81  69  78  /  20  40  20  40
ODESSA TX                  67  80  69  77  /  20  40  20  40
WINK TX                    68  80  70  81  /  30  20  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 152301
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail overnight, but MVFR ceilings are
expected to form late.  Will include temporary MVFR, and a few
IFR, ceilings and visibilities at all but KFST and KPEQ for now.
A weak cold front will move south into the region late tonight,
and likely promote development of more MVFR ceilings.  KHOB is
most likely to be affected.  Ceilings should rise through late
morning, but TSRA will be possible at most TAF sites Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Atmospheric moisture content remains high with mid level theta-e
ridge extending wsw-ene across the area and today PWs are about
125% of normal. Precip will be mostly confined to the far w-sw
CWFA due to closer proximity of rich moisture and source region
for shrtwv trof within the deep sly flow between Odile and ridging
to the e. A cold front moving into Panhandle will slowly move s
overnight arriving in the nrn PB just before 12Z. By 18Z Tue the
front will be near coincident with mid level theta-e ridge (INVOF
I-20). Low level convergence looks to be maximized around 18Z Tue
along the front and SHRA/TSRA may develop well before 18Z. 12Z
METMOS has come in wet from HOB...MAF...BPG. It`s hard to discern
shrtwv trof INVOF front so will not go as high as METMOS PoPs, but
will keep chance PoPs going. By early Wed morning a shrtwv trof
will be across far W TX and with renewed low level mstr transport
SHRA/TSRA are again expected. Ensemble NAEFS/GEFS data suggest PWs
will be anomalously high (150% of normal) and heavy rain will be a
concern, especially across the higher terrain of GDP/Delaware
Mtns, but also parts of SE NM in evening hrs. Will opt to ramp up
PoPs across the w Wed PM/Wed night with heavy rain wording. Meanwhile
the remnants of Odile will get caught up in sw mid level flow by
Thur AM. Although the remnant circulation will remain to the nw of
the CWFA a rich mid level theta-e ridge axis will move across much
of the area Thur PM and low level mstr transport will increase
early with general lift indicated in OMEGA/Q vector fields. Thus
precip will be favored to continue. SE NM again looks to be the
favored area, including heavy rain. Flash flood watches may
eventually be needed from Culberson into the SE NM. Precip will
have a good chance to continue even into Friday as shearing
vorticity axis remains to the w or slowly moves across. There are
big differences in models Sat/Sun as GFS brings a front in Sat
evening/ECMWF Sun PM, but models continue to develop precip along
the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  77  67  74  /  30  50  20  50
BIG SPRING TX              69  81  69  79  /  20  50  20  40
CARLSBAD NM                67  75  68  75  /  30  40  30  50
DRYDEN TX                  71  86  72  86  /  20  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  80  68  81  /  20  10  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  72  60  70  /  30  50  50  50
HOBBS NM                   64  76  64  74  /  30  50  20  50
MARFA TX                   60  76  61  76  /  30  40  20  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  81  69  78  /  20  40  20  40
ODESSA TX                  67  80  69  77  /  20  40  20  40
WINK TX                    68  80  70  81  /  30  20  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 152301
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail overnight, but MVFR ceilings are
expected to form late.  Will include temporary MVFR, and a few
IFR, ceilings and visibilities at all but KFST and KPEQ for now.
A weak cold front will move south into the region late tonight,
and likely promote development of more MVFR ceilings.  KHOB is
most likely to be affected.  Ceilings should rise through late
morning, but TSRA will be possible at most TAF sites Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Atmospheric moisture content remains high with mid level theta-e
ridge extending wsw-ene across the area and today PWs are about
125% of normal. Precip will be mostly confined to the far w-sw
CWFA due to closer proximity of rich moisture and source region
for shrtwv trof within the deep sly flow between Odile and ridging
to the e. A cold front moving into Panhandle will slowly move s
overnight arriving in the nrn PB just before 12Z. By 18Z Tue the
front will be near coincident with mid level theta-e ridge (INVOF
I-20). Low level convergence looks to be maximized around 18Z Tue
along the front and SHRA/TSRA may develop well before 18Z. 12Z
METMOS has come in wet from HOB...MAF...BPG. It`s hard to discern
shrtwv trof INVOF front so will not go as high as METMOS PoPs, but
will keep chance PoPs going. By early Wed morning a shrtwv trof
will be across far W TX and with renewed low level mstr transport
SHRA/TSRA are again expected. Ensemble NAEFS/GEFS data suggest PWs
will be anomalously high (150% of normal) and heavy rain will be a
concern, especially across the higher terrain of GDP/Delaware
Mtns, but also parts of SE NM in evening hrs. Will opt to ramp up
PoPs across the w Wed PM/Wed night with heavy rain wording. Meanwhile
the remnants of Odile will get caught up in sw mid level flow by
Thur AM. Although the remnant circulation will remain to the nw of
the CWFA a rich mid level theta-e ridge axis will move across much
of the area Thur PM and low level mstr transport will increase
early with general lift indicated in OMEGA/Q vector fields. Thus
precip will be favored to continue. SE NM again looks to be the
favored area, including heavy rain. Flash flood watches may
eventually be needed from Culberson into the SE NM. Precip will
have a good chance to continue even into Friday as shearing
vorticity axis remains to the w or slowly moves across. There are
big differences in models Sat/Sun as GFS brings a front in Sat
evening/ECMWF Sun PM, but models continue to develop precip along
the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  77  67  74  /  30  50  20  50
BIG SPRING TX              69  81  69  79  /  20  50  20  40
CARLSBAD NM                67  75  68  75  /  30  40  30  50
DRYDEN TX                  71  86  72  86  /  20  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  80  68  81  /  20  10  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  72  60  70  /  30  50  50  50
HOBBS NM                   64  76  64  74  /  30  50  20  50
MARFA TX                   60  76  61  76  /  30  40  20  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  81  69  78  /  20  40  20  40
ODESSA TX                  67  80  69  77  /  20  40  20  40
WINK TX                    68  80  70  81  /  30  20  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 152301
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail overnight, but MVFR ceilings are
expected to form late.  Will include temporary MVFR, and a few
IFR, ceilings and visibilities at all but KFST and KPEQ for now.
A weak cold front will move south into the region late tonight,
and likely promote development of more MVFR ceilings.  KHOB is
most likely to be affected.  Ceilings should rise through late
morning, but TSRA will be possible at most TAF sites Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Atmospheric moisture content remains high with mid level theta-e
ridge extending wsw-ene across the area and today PWs are about
125% of normal. Precip will be mostly confined to the far w-sw
CWFA due to closer proximity of rich moisture and source region
for shrtwv trof within the deep sly flow between Odile and ridging
to the e. A cold front moving into Panhandle will slowly move s
overnight arriving in the nrn PB just before 12Z. By 18Z Tue the
front will be near coincident with mid level theta-e ridge (INVOF
I-20). Low level convergence looks to be maximized around 18Z Tue
along the front and SHRA/TSRA may develop well before 18Z. 12Z
METMOS has come in wet from HOB...MAF...BPG. It`s hard to discern
shrtwv trof INVOF front so will not go as high as METMOS PoPs, but
will keep chance PoPs going. By early Wed morning a shrtwv trof
will be across far W TX and with renewed low level mstr transport
SHRA/TSRA are again expected. Ensemble NAEFS/GEFS data suggest PWs
will be anomalously high (150% of normal) and heavy rain will be a
concern, especially across the higher terrain of GDP/Delaware
Mtns, but also parts of SE NM in evening hrs. Will opt to ramp up
PoPs across the w Wed PM/Wed night with heavy rain wording. Meanwhile
the remnants of Odile will get caught up in sw mid level flow by
Thur AM. Although the remnant circulation will remain to the nw of
the CWFA a rich mid level theta-e ridge axis will move across much
of the area Thur PM and low level mstr transport will increase
early with general lift indicated in OMEGA/Q vector fields. Thus
precip will be favored to continue. SE NM again looks to be the
favored area, including heavy rain. Flash flood watches may
eventually be needed from Culberson into the SE NM. Precip will
have a good chance to continue even into Friday as shearing
vorticity axis remains to the w or slowly moves across. There are
big differences in models Sat/Sun as GFS brings a front in Sat
evening/ECMWF Sun PM, but models continue to develop precip along
the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  77  67  74  /  30  50  20  50
BIG SPRING TX              69  81  69  79  /  20  50  20  40
CARLSBAD NM                67  75  68  75  /  30  40  30  50
DRYDEN TX                  71  86  72  86  /  20  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  80  68  81  /  20  10  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  72  60  70  /  30  50  50  50
HOBBS NM                   64  76  64  74  /  30  50  20  50
MARFA TX                   60  76  61  76  /  30  40  20  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  81  69  78  /  20  40  20  40
ODESSA TX                  67  80  69  77  /  20  40  20  40
WINK TX                    68  80  70  81  /  30  20  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 152257
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
557 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ABOUNDANT MOISTURE
AXIS WITH TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOW LOCATED
IN THE MARINE ZONES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
COUNTY ZONES AS WELL. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE AXIS TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY GRADUALLY INCREASE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. GOES SOUNDER DERIVED PWAT VALUES HAVE INCREASED ABOVE
2.1 OVER THE COASTAL BEND THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT TO INCREASE
MORE OVERNIGHT. HAVE POPS UP TO 70 PERCENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA...BUT EXPECT EVERYONE TO SEE RAIN
TOMORROW. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER HAVE
AREAWIDE ESTIMATES LESS THAN ONE INCH TOTAL AT THIS TIME SO WILL
NOT CONSIDER ANY HYDRO WATCHES. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBER ON THE
ORDER OF 3-4 INCHES IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE A
FEW SITES COULD APPROACH THOSE NUMBERS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
WELL BELOW.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE LAST NIGHTS "COOL"
MINIMUMS. SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE BOARD AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. TOMORROW HIGHS A BIT TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN EXPECTED. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS COOLER IN THE
EAST WITH RAIN STARTING EARLIER...AND WARMER WEST WHERE THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF FOR SOME DAYTIME WARMING TO OCCUR.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST TO WEST...BUT
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAIN
PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS PROGD
TO DISSIPATE AS IT EXITS TO THE W ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS S TX. MODELS PROG A MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ARE PROGD TO ROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL PERIODICALLY PROVIDE SOME
WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. EXPECTING MAINLY AN ACTIVE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY WITH SCT CONVECTION STARTING OFF IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES THEN SPREADING INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON. KEPT THE 30-50 POPS FOR WED AND THU THEN 20-40 POPS
FRI AND DECREASING SAT AND SUN BUT WITH CONVECTION REMAINING IN THE
FCST. BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS PROG A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH OR MOVE INTO S TX BY NEXT MON...BUT WILL HOLD GOING WITH A
HIGHER POP THAN 20 PERCENT THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. KEPT TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES BUT WAS 2-4 DEGREES BELOW MEX GUIDANCE VALUES WED
AND THU. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD FROM THE SE AND AT
TIMES E THEN NE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD PER THE MODEL SOLNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  85  76  89  76  /  30  70  40  50  30
VICTORIA          74  86  74  88  74  /  20  50  40  50  30
LAREDO            73  87  77  94  78  /  20  50  40  40  30
ALICE             74  86  75  90  75  /  20  70  30  50  30
ROCKPORT          78  84  79  89  78  /  40  60  40  50  30
COTULLA           73  89  75  94  75  /  10  40  30  30  30
KINGSVILLE        74  86  75  90  75  /  30  70  40  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       78  84  79  89  79  /  40  70  40  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 152257
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
557 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ABOUNDANT MOISTURE
AXIS WITH TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOW LOCATED
IN THE MARINE ZONES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
COUNTY ZONES AS WELL. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE AXIS TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY GRADUALLY INCREASE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. GOES SOUNDER DERIVED PWAT VALUES HAVE INCREASED ABOVE
2.1 OVER THE COASTAL BEND THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT TO INCREASE
MORE OVERNIGHT. HAVE POPS UP TO 70 PERCENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA...BUT EXPECT EVERYONE TO SEE RAIN
TOMORROW. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER HAVE
AREAWIDE ESTIMATES LESS THAN ONE INCH TOTAL AT THIS TIME SO WILL
NOT CONSIDER ANY HYDRO WATCHES. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBER ON THE
ORDER OF 3-4 INCHES IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE A
FEW SITES COULD APPROACH THOSE NUMBERS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
WELL BELOW.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE LAST NIGHTS "COOL"
MINIMUMS. SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE BOARD AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. TOMORROW HIGHS A BIT TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN EXPECTED. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS COOLER IN THE
EAST WITH RAIN STARTING EARLIER...AND WARMER WEST WHERE THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF FOR SOME DAYTIME WARMING TO OCCUR.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST TO WEST...BUT
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAIN
PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.


&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS PROGD
TO DISSIPATE AS IT EXITS TO THE W ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS S TX. MODELS PROG A MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ARE PROGD TO ROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL PERIODICALLY PROVIDE SOME
WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. EXPECTING MAINLY AN ACTIVE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY WITH SCT CONVECTION STARTING OFF IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES THEN SPREADING INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON. KEPT THE 30-50 POPS FOR WED AND THU THEN 20-40 POPS
FRI AND DECREASING SAT AND SUN BUT WITH CONVECTION REMAINING IN THE
FCST. BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS PROG A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH OR MOVE INTO S TX BY NEXT MON...BUT WILL HOLD GOING WITH A
HIGHER POP THAN 20 PERCENT THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. KEPT TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES BUT WAS 2-4 DEGREES BELOW MEX GUIDANCE VALUES WED
AND THU. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD FROM THE SE AND AT
TIMES E THEN NE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD PER THE MODEL SOLNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  85  76  89  76  /  30  70  40  50  30
VICTORIA          74  86  74  88  74  /  20  50  40  50  30
LAREDO            73  87  77  94  78  /  20  50  40  40  30
ALICE             74  86  75  90  75  /  20  70  30  50  30
ROCKPORT          78  84  79  89  78  /  40  60  40  50  30
COTULLA           73  89  75  94  75  /  10  40  30  30  30
KINGSVILLE        74  86  75  90  75  /  30  70  40  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       78  84  79  89  79  /  40  70  40  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 152135
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
335 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE ODILE AS
CLOUDS FROM THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE HAVE MOVED
INTO THE REGION. WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME VERY HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE NEXT FOUR DAYS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST AND INCLUDE FAR WEST TEXAS AND ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEST NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
ACTUAL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
ON FRIDAY. STAY TUNED AS CHANGES IN THE TRACKING...TIMING AND
EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE ODILE WILL CHANGE AS MORE DATA COMES INTO
THE OFFICE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL EYES ARE TURNED ON HURRICANE ODILE. THE HURRICANE MADE
LANDFALL AT CABO AS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE LAST 40 YEARS.
THE STORM WILL CRAWL UP THE BAJA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE EFFECTS AS SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE HAS ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE FORM OF SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS.
THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BAND OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AFTER THAT WE WILL SEE OCCASIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE MAIN THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE SO I HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
WESTERN COUNTIES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING...THEN AS THE THREAT
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA WE WILL SPREAD THE WATCH FURTHER EAST AND
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. WE MAY SEE A SLIGHT BREAK WEDNESDAY EVENING IN
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THEN IF THE MODEL TRACKS FOR ODILE ARE
CURRENTLY ACCURATE IT WILL BRING THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS
NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY SO WE WILL SEE ANOTHER RAMP UP IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. NOW HAVING SAID THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO STAY TURNED AS
WE MODIFY THE FORECAST AS NEEDED AS MORE DATA COMES IN. THE
WEEKEND FORECAST IS A CHALLENGE WE WILL HAVE MOISTURE STILL
LINGERING FROM ODILE AND AT THE SAME TIME WE WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LIKE LAST FRIDAY`S FRONT
THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE WILL BE SEEING MORE STABLE AIR MOVE
INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW I`VE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THE MODELS
STICK TO THEIR GUNS FOR A DRIER WEEKEND FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 16/00Z - 17/00Z...
SPIRAL BANDS AROUND HURRICANE ODILE WILL DEGRADE CIG AND VIS TO SCT
LIFR CONDTS OMTNS AFT 08Z.  LOWLANDS WILL SEE BKN CIGS TO 030-040
AGL...WITH SCT VIS TO 3 SM IN -SHRA/SHRA AND TSRA BY THAT TIME.
FEW-SCT 010-020 ALSO EXPECTED WITH LCL BKN CIGS TO 010 NEAR MTNS
OVER LOWLANDS.  LOOK FOR WINDS 080-130/05-09 KTS. EXPECT GENERALLY
LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HURRICANE ODILE WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AS IT
INITIALLY HEADS NORTH ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA.  FEATURE TAKES A TURN
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER ARIZONA LATER WEDNESDAY...DRIVEN BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF CALIFORNIA.  REMNANTS EXPECTED AT
THAT TIME FROM ODILE...SHOULD SLOW THEIR MOVEMENT OVER AZ...AS THE
TROUGH REMAINS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.50 INCH TO 1.75 INCHES...HOWEVER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-3 INCHES.  RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH
FLOODING IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER AND DOWNSTREAM
AREAS BURNED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS.  THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL GO INTO EFFECT 6 AM TUESDAY FOR HIDALGO...LUNA...GRANT...DONA
ANA AND SIERRA COUNTIES.  REMAINING COUNTIES EAST OF THESE AREAS
WILL HAVE WATCHES IN EFFECT 6 AM WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  80  65  81  67 /  40  50  70  60  70
SIERRA BLANCA           61  74  61  76  62 /  30  50  70  70  60
LAS CRUCES              62  79  63  80  64 /  60  70  70  70  70
ALAMOGORDO              63  80  64  81  63 /  30  50  60  70  70
CLOUDCROFT              49  62  48  62  47 /  40  50  60  90  90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  79  61  80  63 /  60  60  60  70  70
SILVER CITY             60  76  58  74  59 /  60  70  70  80  70
DEMING                  62  79  61  81  63 /  60  70  70  70  70
LORDSBURG               63  80  62  81  64 /  60  70  70  70  70
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  80  65  80  67 /  50  60  70  60  70
DELL CITY               61  81  63  80  64 /  40  50  60  70  60
FORT HANCOCK            65  81  62  81  66 /  40  50  70  70  80
LOMA LINDA              63  76  61  73  61 /  30  50  60  60  70
FABENS                  63  81  65  81  65 /  40  40  70  60  90
SANTA TERESA            64  80  63  80  65 /  60  60  70  60  70
WHITE SANDS HQ          63  78  63  78  64 /  60  70  70  60  70
JORNADA RANGE           59  79  59  80  61 /  60  70  70  70  70
HATCH                   61  78  61  78  63 /  60  70  70  70  70
COLUMBUS                64  80  65  80  64 /  60  70  70  70  70
OROGRANDE               64  78  64  78  65 /  30  50  60  60  70
MAYHILL                 52  69  53  69  52 /  50  50  60  90  90
MESCALERO               54  71  54  70  53 /  40  50  60  90  90
TIMBERON                51  69  52  68  50 /  40  50  60  90  70
WINSTON                 56  73  55  71  54 /  60  60  60  80  60
HILLSBORO               62  75  59  74  58 /  60  70  70  70  70
SPACEPORT               61  79  60  78  62 /  60  70  70  60  70
LAKE ROBERTS            58  75  55  74  54 /  60  70  70  90  70
HURLEY                  62  76  60  76  60 /  60  70  70  70  70
CLIFF                   52  77  54  78  54 /  60  70  70  80  70
MULE CREEK              50  74  51  75  51 /  60  60  70  70  70
FAYWOOD                 62  76  59  75  60 /  60  70  70  70  70
ANIMAS                  63  80  63  79  65 /  60  70  80  80  70
HACHITA                 60  80  59  81  61 /  60  70  80  80  70
ANTELOPE WELLS          59  79  59  80  61 /  60  70  80  90  70
CLOVERDALE              61  78  58  77  58 /  60  70  90  90  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ412>417.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR NMZ401>411.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

BRICE/TRIPOLI






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 152135
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
335 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE ODILE AS
CLOUDS FROM THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE HAVE MOVED
INTO THE REGION. WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME VERY HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE NEXT FOUR DAYS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST AND INCLUDE FAR WEST TEXAS AND ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEST NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
ACTUAL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
ON FRIDAY. STAY TUNED AS CHANGES IN THE TRACKING...TIMING AND
EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE ODILE WILL CHANGE AS MORE DATA COMES INTO
THE OFFICE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL EYES ARE TURNED ON HURRICANE ODILE. THE HURRICANE MADE
LANDFALL AT CABO AS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE LAST 40 YEARS.
THE STORM WILL CRAWL UP THE BAJA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE EFFECTS AS SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE HAS ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE FORM OF SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS.
THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BAND OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AFTER THAT WE WILL SEE OCCASIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE MAIN THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE SO I HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
WESTERN COUNTIES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING...THEN AS THE THREAT
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA WE WILL SPREAD THE WATCH FURTHER EAST AND
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. WE MAY SEE A SLIGHT BREAK WEDNESDAY EVENING IN
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THEN IF THE MODEL TRACKS FOR ODILE ARE
CURRENTLY ACCURATE IT WILL BRING THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS
NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY SO WE WILL SEE ANOTHER RAMP UP IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. NOW HAVING SAID THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO STAY TURNED AS
WE MODIFY THE FORECAST AS NEEDED AS MORE DATA COMES IN. THE
WEEKEND FORECAST IS A CHALLENGE WE WILL HAVE MOISTURE STILL
LINGERING FROM ODILE AND AT THE SAME TIME WE WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LIKE LAST FRIDAY`S FRONT
THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE WILL BE SEEING MORE STABLE AIR MOVE
INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW I`VE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THE MODELS
STICK TO THEIR GUNS FOR A DRIER WEEKEND FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 16/00Z - 17/00Z...
SPIRAL BANDS AROUND HURRICANE ODILE WILL DEGRADE CIG AND VIS TO SCT
LIFR CONDTS OMTNS AFT 08Z.  LOWLANDS WILL SEE BKN CIGS TO 030-040
AGL...WITH SCT VIS TO 3 SM IN -SHRA/SHRA AND TSRA BY THAT TIME.
FEW-SCT 010-020 ALSO EXPECTED WITH LCL BKN CIGS TO 010 NEAR MTNS
OVER LOWLANDS.  LOOK FOR WINDS 080-130/05-09 KTS. EXPECT GENERALLY
LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HURRICANE ODILE WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AS IT
INITIALLY HEADS NORTH ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA.  FEATURE TAKES A TURN
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER ARIZONA LATER WEDNESDAY...DRIVEN BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF CALIFORNIA.  REMNANTS EXPECTED AT
THAT TIME FROM ODILE...SHOULD SLOW THEIR MOVEMENT OVER AZ...AS THE
TROUGH REMAINS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.50 INCH TO 1.75 INCHES...HOWEVER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-3 INCHES.  RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH
FLOODING IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER AND DOWNSTREAM
AREAS BURNED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS.  THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL GO INTO EFFECT 6 AM TUESDAY FOR HIDALGO...LUNA...GRANT...DONA
ANA AND SIERRA COUNTIES.  REMAINING COUNTIES EAST OF THESE AREAS
WILL HAVE WATCHES IN EFFECT 6 AM WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  80  65  81  67 /  40  50  70  60  70
SIERRA BLANCA           61  74  61  76  62 /  30  50  70  70  60
LAS CRUCES              62  79  63  80  64 /  60  70  70  70  70
ALAMOGORDO              63  80  64  81  63 /  30  50  60  70  70
CLOUDCROFT              49  62  48  62  47 /  40  50  60  90  90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  79  61  80  63 /  60  60  60  70  70
SILVER CITY             60  76  58  74  59 /  60  70  70  80  70
DEMING                  62  79  61  81  63 /  60  70  70  70  70
LORDSBURG               63  80  62  81  64 /  60  70  70  70  70
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  80  65  80  67 /  50  60  70  60  70
DELL CITY               61  81  63  80  64 /  40  50  60  70  60
FORT HANCOCK            65  81  62  81  66 /  40  50  70  70  80
LOMA LINDA              63  76  61  73  61 /  30  50  60  60  70
FABENS                  63  81  65  81  65 /  40  40  70  60  90
SANTA TERESA            64  80  63  80  65 /  60  60  70  60  70
WHITE SANDS HQ          63  78  63  78  64 /  60  70  70  60  70
JORNADA RANGE           59  79  59  80  61 /  60  70  70  70  70
HATCH                   61  78  61  78  63 /  60  70  70  70  70
COLUMBUS                64  80  65  80  64 /  60  70  70  70  70
OROGRANDE               64  78  64  78  65 /  30  50  60  60  70
MAYHILL                 52  69  53  69  52 /  50  50  60  90  90
MESCALERO               54  71  54  70  53 /  40  50  60  90  90
TIMBERON                51  69  52  68  50 /  40  50  60  90  70
WINSTON                 56  73  55  71  54 /  60  60  60  80  60
HILLSBORO               62  75  59  74  58 /  60  70  70  70  70
SPACEPORT               61  79  60  78  62 /  60  70  70  60  70
LAKE ROBERTS            58  75  55  74  54 /  60  70  70  90  70
HURLEY                  62  76  60  76  60 /  60  70  70  70  70
CLIFF                   52  77  54  78  54 /  60  70  70  80  70
MULE CREEK              50  74  51  75  51 /  60  60  70  70  70
FAYWOOD                 62  76  59  75  60 /  60  70  70  70  70
ANIMAS                  63  80  63  79  65 /  60  70  80  80  70
HACHITA                 60  80  59  81  61 /  60  70  80  80  70
ANTELOPE WELLS          59  79  59  80  61 /  60  70  80  90  70
CLOVERDALE              61  78  58  77  58 /  60  70  90  90  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ412>417.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR NMZ401>411.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

BRICE/TRIPOLI






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 152135
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
335 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE ODILE AS
CLOUDS FROM THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE HAVE MOVED
INTO THE REGION. WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME VERY HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE NEXT FOUR DAYS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST AND INCLUDE FAR WEST TEXAS AND ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEST NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
ACTUAL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
ON FRIDAY. STAY TUNED AS CHANGES IN THE TRACKING...TIMING AND
EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE ODILE WILL CHANGE AS MORE DATA COMES INTO
THE OFFICE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL EYES ARE TURNED ON HURRICANE ODILE. THE HURRICANE MADE
LANDFALL AT CABO AS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE LAST 40 YEARS.
THE STORM WILL CRAWL UP THE BAJA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE EFFECTS AS SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE HAS ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE FORM OF SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS.
THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BAND OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AFTER THAT WE WILL SEE OCCASIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE MAIN THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE SO I HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
WESTERN COUNTIES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING...THEN AS THE THREAT
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA WE WILL SPREAD THE WATCH FURTHER EAST AND
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. WE MAY SEE A SLIGHT BREAK WEDNESDAY EVENING IN
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THEN IF THE MODEL TRACKS FOR ODILE ARE
CURRENTLY ACCURATE IT WILL BRING THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS
NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY SO WE WILL SEE ANOTHER RAMP UP IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. NOW HAVING SAID THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO STAY TURNED AS
WE MODIFY THE FORECAST AS NEEDED AS MORE DATA COMES IN. THE
WEEKEND FORECAST IS A CHALLENGE WE WILL HAVE MOISTURE STILL
LINGERING FROM ODILE AND AT THE SAME TIME WE WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LIKE LAST FRIDAY`S FRONT
THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE WILL BE SEEING MORE STABLE AIR MOVE
INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW I`VE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THE MODELS
STICK TO THEIR GUNS FOR A DRIER WEEKEND FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 16/00Z - 17/00Z...
SPIRAL BANDS AROUND HURRICANE ODILE WILL DEGRADE CIG AND VIS TO SCT
LIFR CONDTS OMTNS AFT 08Z.  LOWLANDS WILL SEE BKN CIGS TO 030-040
AGL...WITH SCT VIS TO 3 SM IN -SHRA/SHRA AND TSRA BY THAT TIME.
FEW-SCT 010-020 ALSO EXPECTED WITH LCL BKN CIGS TO 010 NEAR MTNS
OVER LOWLANDS.  LOOK FOR WINDS 080-130/05-09 KTS. EXPECT GENERALLY
LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HURRICANE ODILE WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AS IT
INITIALLY HEADS NORTH ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA.  FEATURE TAKES A TURN
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER ARIZONA LATER WEDNESDAY...DRIVEN BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF CALIFORNIA.  REMNANTS EXPECTED AT
THAT TIME FROM ODILE...SHOULD SLOW THEIR MOVEMENT OVER AZ...AS THE
TROUGH REMAINS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.50 INCH TO 1.75 INCHES...HOWEVER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-3 INCHES.  RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH
FLOODING IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER AND DOWNSTREAM
AREAS BURNED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS.  THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL GO INTO EFFECT 6 AM TUESDAY FOR HIDALGO...LUNA...GRANT...DONA
ANA AND SIERRA COUNTIES.  REMAINING COUNTIES EAST OF THESE AREAS
WILL HAVE WATCHES IN EFFECT 6 AM WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  80  65  81  67 /  40  50  70  60  70
SIERRA BLANCA           61  74  61  76  62 /  30  50  70  70  60
LAS CRUCES              62  79  63  80  64 /  60  70  70  70  70
ALAMOGORDO              63  80  64  81  63 /  30  50  60  70  70
CLOUDCROFT              49  62  48  62  47 /  40  50  60  90  90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  79  61  80  63 /  60  60  60  70  70
SILVER CITY             60  76  58  74  59 /  60  70  70  80  70
DEMING                  62  79  61  81  63 /  60  70  70  70  70
LORDSBURG               63  80  62  81  64 /  60  70  70  70  70
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  80  65  80  67 /  50  60  70  60  70
DELL CITY               61  81  63  80  64 /  40  50  60  70  60
FORT HANCOCK            65  81  62  81  66 /  40  50  70  70  80
LOMA LINDA              63  76  61  73  61 /  30  50  60  60  70
FABENS                  63  81  65  81  65 /  40  40  70  60  90
SANTA TERESA            64  80  63  80  65 /  60  60  70  60  70
WHITE SANDS HQ          63  78  63  78  64 /  60  70  70  60  70
JORNADA RANGE           59  79  59  80  61 /  60  70  70  70  70
HATCH                   61  78  61  78  63 /  60  70  70  70  70
COLUMBUS                64  80  65  80  64 /  60  70  70  70  70
OROGRANDE               64  78  64  78  65 /  30  50  60  60  70
MAYHILL                 52  69  53  69  52 /  50  50  60  90  90
MESCALERO               54  71  54  70  53 /  40  50  60  90  90
TIMBERON                51  69  52  68  50 /  40  50  60  90  70
WINSTON                 56  73  55  71  54 /  60  60  60  80  60
HILLSBORO               62  75  59  74  58 /  60  70  70  70  70
SPACEPORT               61  79  60  78  62 /  60  70  70  60  70
LAKE ROBERTS            58  75  55  74  54 /  60  70  70  90  70
HURLEY                  62  76  60  76  60 /  60  70  70  70  70
CLIFF                   52  77  54  78  54 /  60  70  70  80  70
MULE CREEK              50  74  51  75  51 /  60  60  70  70  70
FAYWOOD                 62  76  59  75  60 /  60  70  70  70  70
ANIMAS                  63  80  63  79  65 /  60  70  80  80  70
HACHITA                 60  80  59  81  61 /  60  70  80  80  70
ANTELOPE WELLS          59  79  59  80  61 /  60  70  80  90  70
CLOVERDALE              61  78  58  77  58 /  60  70  90  90  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ412>417.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR NMZ401>411.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

BRICE/TRIPOLI






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 152135
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
335 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE ODILE AS
CLOUDS FROM THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE HAVE MOVED
INTO THE REGION. WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME VERY HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE NEXT FOUR DAYS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST AND INCLUDE FAR WEST TEXAS AND ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEST NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
ACTUAL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
ON FRIDAY. STAY TUNED AS CHANGES IN THE TRACKING...TIMING AND
EFFECTS FROM HURRICANE ODILE WILL CHANGE AS MORE DATA COMES INTO
THE OFFICE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL EYES ARE TURNED ON HURRICANE ODILE. THE HURRICANE MADE
LANDFALL AT CABO AS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE LAST 40 YEARS.
THE STORM WILL CRAWL UP THE BAJA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE EFFECTS AS SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE HAS ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE FORM OF SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME SHOWERS.
THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT BAND OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AFTER THAT WE WILL SEE OCCASIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE MAIN THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE SO I HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
WESTERN COUNTIES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING...THEN AS THE THREAT
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA WE WILL SPREAD THE WATCH FURTHER EAST AND
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. WE MAY SEE A SLIGHT BREAK WEDNESDAY EVENING IN
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THEN IF THE MODEL TRACKS FOR ODILE ARE
CURRENTLY ACCURATE IT WILL BRING THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS
NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY SO WE WILL SEE ANOTHER RAMP UP IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. NOW HAVING SAID THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO STAY TURNED AS
WE MODIFY THE FORECAST AS NEEDED AS MORE DATA COMES IN. THE
WEEKEND FORECAST IS A CHALLENGE WE WILL HAVE MOISTURE STILL
LINGERING FROM ODILE AND AT THE SAME TIME WE WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. LIKE LAST FRIDAY`S FRONT
THE MODELS INDICATE THAT WE WILL BE SEEING MORE STABLE AIR MOVE
INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW I`VE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THE MODELS
STICK TO THEIR GUNS FOR A DRIER WEEKEND FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 16/00Z - 17/00Z...
SPIRAL BANDS AROUND HURRICANE ODILE WILL DEGRADE CIG AND VIS TO SCT
LIFR CONDTS OMTNS AFT 08Z.  LOWLANDS WILL SEE BKN CIGS TO 030-040
AGL...WITH SCT VIS TO 3 SM IN -SHRA/SHRA AND TSRA BY THAT TIME.
FEW-SCT 010-020 ALSO EXPECTED WITH LCL BKN CIGS TO 010 NEAR MTNS
OVER LOWLANDS.  LOOK FOR WINDS 080-130/05-09 KTS. EXPECT GENERALLY
LIGHT TURBC OUTSIDE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HURRICANE ODILE WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WET WEATHER TO
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AS IT
INITIALLY HEADS NORTH ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA.  FEATURE TAKES A TURN
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER ARIZONA LATER WEDNESDAY...DRIVEN BY AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF CALIFORNIA.  REMNANTS EXPECTED AT
THAT TIME FROM ODILE...SHOULD SLOW THEIR MOVEMENT OVER AZ...AS THE
TROUGH REMAINS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.50 INCH TO 1.75 INCHES...HOWEVER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-3 INCHES.  RAPID RUNOFF AND FLASH
FLOODING IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER AND DOWNSTREAM
AREAS BURNED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS.  THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL GO INTO EFFECT 6 AM TUESDAY FOR HIDALGO...LUNA...GRANT...DONA
ANA AND SIERRA COUNTIES.  REMAINING COUNTIES EAST OF THESE AREAS
WILL HAVE WATCHES IN EFFECT 6 AM WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  80  65  81  67 /  40  50  70  60  70
SIERRA BLANCA           61  74  61  76  62 /  30  50  70  70  60
LAS CRUCES              62  79  63  80  64 /  60  70  70  70  70
ALAMOGORDO              63  80  64  81  63 /  30  50  60  70  70
CLOUDCROFT              49  62  48  62  47 /  40  50  60  90  90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  79  61  80  63 /  60  60  60  70  70
SILVER CITY             60  76  58  74  59 /  60  70  70  80  70
DEMING                  62  79  61  81  63 /  60  70  70  70  70
LORDSBURG               63  80  62  81  64 /  60  70  70  70  70
WEST EL PASO METRO      65  80  65  80  67 /  50  60  70  60  70
DELL CITY               61  81  63  80  64 /  40  50  60  70  60
FORT HANCOCK            65  81  62  81  66 /  40  50  70  70  80
LOMA LINDA              63  76  61  73  61 /  30  50  60  60  70
FABENS                  63  81  65  81  65 /  40  40  70  60  90
SANTA TERESA            64  80  63  80  65 /  60  60  70  60  70
WHITE SANDS HQ          63  78  63  78  64 /  60  70  70  60  70
JORNADA RANGE           59  79  59  80  61 /  60  70  70  70  70
HATCH                   61  78  61  78  63 /  60  70  70  70  70
COLUMBUS                64  80  65  80  64 /  60  70  70  70  70
OROGRANDE               64  78  64  78  65 /  30  50  60  60  70
MAYHILL                 52  69  53  69  52 /  50  50  60  90  90
MESCALERO               54  71  54  70  53 /  40  50  60  90  90
TIMBERON                51  69  52  68  50 /  40  50  60  90  70
WINSTON                 56  73  55  71  54 /  60  60  60  80  60
HILLSBORO               62  75  59  74  58 /  60  70  70  70  70
SPACEPORT               61  79  60  78  62 /  60  70  70  60  70
LAKE ROBERTS            58  75  55  74  54 /  60  70  70  90  70
HURLEY                  62  76  60  76  60 /  60  70  70  70  70
CLIFF                   52  77  54  78  54 /  60  70  70  80  70
MULE CREEK              50  74  51  75  51 /  60  60  70  70  70
FAYWOOD                 62  76  59  75  60 /  60  70  70  70  70
ANIMAS                  63  80  63  79  65 /  60  70  80  80  70
HACHITA                 60  80  59  81  61 /  60  70  80  80  70
ANTELOPE WELLS          59  79  59  80  61 /  60  70  80  90  70
CLOVERDALE              61  78  58  77  58 /  60  70  90  90  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ412>417.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR NMZ401>411.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

BRICE/TRIPOLI






000
FXUS64 KAMA 152116
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
416 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO BE A THORN IN THE SIDE OF OUR FORECAST.
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PANHANDLES
EARLIER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WE
NOW HAVE RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE...AND THERE ARE EVEN A FEW INDICATIONS THAT THIS MAY NOT
BE EARLY ENOUGH. ALL IN ALL...THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE DOING
PRETTY GOOD BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

TONIGHT...
LOOKING UPSTREAM INTO KS AT THIS HOUR...THINK SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SRN TX PANHANDLE.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT THERE COULD BE A BIT OF PRECIP IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE TUE-THU.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  78  63  86  62 /  30  20  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                  60  83  66  91  65 /  10  10   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              57  82  60  87  60 /  10  10   5  10   5
BORGER TX                  63  82  66  89  64 /  20  20  10  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              61  80  63  87  62 /  20  20  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  61  78  62  85  62 /  30  20  10  20  10
CLARENDON TX               63  79  66  86  64 /  30  20  10  20  10
DALHART TX                 58  80  60  87  60 /  10  10  10  10   5
GUYMON OK                  59  84  63  90  63 /  10  10   5   5   5
HEREFORD TX                60  77  62  84  60 /  30  20  10  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                61  81  66  89  65 /  20  20  10   5   5
PAMPA TX                   61  79  65  86  63 /  30  20  10  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                63  81  66  88  65 /  30  20  10  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              64  82  67  88  65 /  30  20  10  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 152116
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
416 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO BE A THORN IN THE SIDE OF OUR FORECAST.
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PANHANDLES
EARLIER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WE
NOW HAVE RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE...AND THERE ARE EVEN A FEW INDICATIONS THAT THIS MAY NOT
BE EARLY ENOUGH. ALL IN ALL...THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE DOING
PRETTY GOOD BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

TONIGHT...
LOOKING UPSTREAM INTO KS AT THIS HOUR...THINK SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SRN TX PANHANDLE.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT THERE COULD BE A BIT OF PRECIP IN THE SRN TX
PANHANDLE TUE-THU.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                61  78  63  86  62 /  30  20  10  10  10
BEAVER OK                  60  83  66  91  65 /  10  10   5   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              57  82  60  87  60 /  10  10   5  10   5
BORGER TX                  63  82  66  89  64 /  20  20  10  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              61  80  63  87  62 /  20  20  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  61  78  62  85  62 /  30  20  10  20  10
CLARENDON TX               63  79  66  86  64 /  30  20  10  20  10
DALHART TX                 58  80  60  87  60 /  10  10  10  10   5
GUYMON OK                  59  84  63  90  63 /  10  10   5   5   5
HEREFORD TX                60  77  62  84  60 /  30  20  10  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                61  81  66  89  65 /  20  20  10   5   5
PAMPA TX                   61  79  65  86  63 /  30  20  10  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                63  81  66  88  65 /  30  20  10  10   5
WELLINGTON TX              64  82  67  88  65 /  30  20  10  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/09





000
FXUS64 KSJT 152044
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
344 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

As of 3 PM...scattered light rain showers were moving east across
portions of the Heartland between Cross Plains and Cherokee. These
showers will exit the area by late afternoon. Abundant mid and high
level moisture associated with Hurricane Odile will continue to
advect in from the west tonight and Tuesday. A weak cold front is
currently moving south across the Texas Panhandle and northwest
Oklahoma. This front will continue slowly south overnight and should
reach Haskell and Throckmorton counties around 3 AM. The front is
expected to stall along or just north of I-20 Tuesday morning,
before washing out during the afternoon hours. The best chance for
rainfall ov