Home > Products > State Listing > Texas Data
Latest:
 AFDAMA |  AFDEPZ |  AFDMAF |  AFDSJT |  AFDEWX |  AFDCRP |  AFDBRO |  AFDHGX |  AFDFWD |  AFDLUB |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 011142
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS
OF THIS TAF PACKAGE WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND SOME TEMPORARY
LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS A WIND SHIFT.

CEILINGS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
GENERALLY BETWEEN 800 AND 1200 FT WITH OCCASIONAL SCATTERED VFR
CEILINGS. SATELLITE INDICATES SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
WEST...MOVING EAST. HOWEVER...AS SOON AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR THE
VISIBILITY IS FALLING BELOW 1 MILE AND IN SOME CASES BELOW 1/2
MILE. WE HAVE DECIDED TO SIMPLIFY THE CEILING TRENDS AS MUCH AS
POSSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING AND CARRY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z...MVFR BETWEEN 15 AND 20Z AND VFR AFTER 20Z. THE DRIVING
FACTOR FOR THE CEILING TRENDS IS A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z AND WACO AROUND
17Z. THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
MORNING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL STAY UP AROUND 12
KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.


79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/
RAIN BAND IS MOVING EAST...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX. RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SMALL POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAIN. THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AT ALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTH DURING THE MORNING...RAIN SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONT SOUTHEAST
WITH ACTIVITY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...MOST OF THE AREA NORTH
OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO PALESTINE WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE
SUN...DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST FROM MEXICO...IT WILL COME IN PHASE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND WE HAVE LOW POPS TO COVER THAT
EVENT. THE LOW ITSELF WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN TX...WHERE HEAVIER
RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS COLD FRONT...AND WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THAT MAY PROVIDE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AS RIDGING BUILDS IN OFFSHORE BAJA CALIF...NORTH TX WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE
QUITE PLEASANT WITH NO RAIN AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. 84

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  30  44  35  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              63  32  47  34  57 /  20   5   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             57  27  42  30  55 /  60   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  28  44  32  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          56  28  43  31  56 /  30   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            58  30  44  35  58 /  30   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           62  29  44  32  56 /  40   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  31  45  34  56 /  40   5   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            63  33  48  35  56 /  20   5   0   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  28  46  33  61 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/84






000
FXUS64 KFWD 011142
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS
OF THIS TAF PACKAGE WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND SOME TEMPORARY
LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS A WIND SHIFT.

CEILINGS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
GENERALLY BETWEEN 800 AND 1200 FT WITH OCCASIONAL SCATTERED VFR
CEILINGS. SATELLITE INDICATES SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
WEST...MOVING EAST. HOWEVER...AS SOON AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR THE
VISIBILITY IS FALLING BELOW 1 MILE AND IN SOME CASES BELOW 1/2
MILE. WE HAVE DECIDED TO SIMPLIFY THE CEILING TRENDS AS MUCH AS
POSSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING AND CARRY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
15Z...MVFR BETWEEN 15 AND 20Z AND VFR AFTER 20Z. THE DRIVING
FACTOR FOR THE CEILING TRENDS IS A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z AND WACO AROUND
17Z. THE FRONT WILL ALSO TURN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
MORNING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL STAY UP AROUND 12
KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.


79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/
RAIN BAND IS MOVING EAST...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX. RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SMALL POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAIN. THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AT ALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTH DURING THE MORNING...RAIN SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONT SOUTHEAST
WITH ACTIVITY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...MOST OF THE AREA NORTH
OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO PALESTINE WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE
SUN...DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST FROM MEXICO...IT WILL COME IN PHASE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND WE HAVE LOW POPS TO COVER THAT
EVENT. THE LOW ITSELF WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN TX...WHERE HEAVIER
RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS COLD FRONT...AND WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THAT MAY PROVIDE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AS RIDGING BUILDS IN OFFSHORE BAJA CALIF...NORTH TX WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE
QUITE PLEASANT WITH NO RAIN AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. 84

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  30  44  35  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              63  32  47  34  57 /  20   5   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             57  27  42  30  55 /  60   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  28  44  32  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          56  28  43  31  56 /  30   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            58  30  44  35  58 /  30   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           62  29  44  32  56 /  40   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  31  45  34  56 /  40   5   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            63  33  48  35  56 /  20   5   0   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  28  46  33  61 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/84




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMAF 011137
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
537 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Recent rains have left quite a bit of moisture this morning
creating widespread dense fog. Normally southwest winds will keep
our skies clear but this morning is a rare exception and thus
forecast confidence is low on when improvement will occur. There
is a cold front in the TX Panhandle moving south that will bring a
northerly wind shift and combined with daytime heating should lift
CIG/VIS to at least MVFR 15-18Z. Eventually VFR conditions are
expected this afternoon but again confidence is low beyond the
first 6 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak pressure gradient and abundant low level moisture has resulted
in areas of dense fog across the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico
Plains and Guadalupe Mountains early this morning. It looks like it
will take the cold front with its increasing northerly winds to
scour out the fog later this morning, so will issue a Dense Fog
Advisory until 15z for the aforementioned areas. The cold front
will move through the forecast area today and keep temperatures
well below normal. In addition guidance is indicating that a short
wave trough across the Big Bend could combine with the southward
moving front to produce a slight chance of thunderstorms today
across the Big Bend.

For Monday through Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
that has plagued the region lately is forecast to track from
southwest Mexico northeast to eastern Texas by Wednesday. As the
system approaches the Big Bend Tuesday, a slight chance of showers
will be possible in that area. High temperatures are expected to
remain below normal Monday but a return to above normal temperatures
is in the offing Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low
forms.

By late Wednesday an amplifying upper level trough across the
eastern half of the nation will push a dry cold front into the
area. Below normal temperatures are expected behind this front
Thursday but a return to above normal temperatures and dry
conditions are expected next Friday and Saturday as another
surface lee trough forms.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 011137
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
537 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Recent rains have left quite a bit of moisture this morning
creating widespread dense fog. Normally southwest winds will keep
our skies clear but this morning is a rare exception and thus
forecast confidence is low on when improvement will occur. There
is a cold front in the TX Panhandle moving south that will bring a
northerly wind shift and combined with daytime heating should lift
CIG/VIS to at least MVFR 15-18Z. Eventually VFR conditions are
expected this afternoon but again confidence is low beyond the
first 6 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Weak pressure gradient and abundant low level moisture has resulted
in areas of dense fog across the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico
Plains and Guadalupe Mountains early this morning. It looks like it
will take the cold front with its increasing northerly winds to
scour out the fog later this morning, so will issue a Dense Fog
Advisory until 15z for the aforementioned areas. The cold front
will move through the forecast area today and keep temperatures
well below normal. In addition guidance is indicating that a short
wave trough across the Big Bend could combine with the southward
moving front to produce a slight chance of thunderstorms today
across the Big Bend.

For Monday through Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
that has plagued the region lately is forecast to track from
southwest Mexico northeast to eastern Texas by Wednesday. As the
system approaches the Big Bend Tuesday, a slight chance of showers
will be possible in that area. High temperatures are expected to
remain below normal Monday but a return to above normal temperatures
is in the offing Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low
forms.

By late Wednesday an amplifying upper level trough across the
eastern half of the nation will push a dry cold front into the
area. Below normal temperatures are expected behind this front
Thursday but a return to above normal temperatures and dry
conditions are expected next Friday and Saturday as another
surface lee trough forms.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 011136 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
536 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DRIZZLE
AND FOG REMAINING. CEILINGS VARY FROM LIFR TO MVFR WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS EVEN UP TO VFR. FOR THE TAFS WILL START OUT WITH
LIFR/MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER 16Z-18Z SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR/VFR. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A PRE-FRONTAL TROF PUSH INTO THE
REGION 18Z-20Z WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT 21Z AT KAUS AND KDRT THEN
AROUND 23Z FOR KSAT/KSSF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY I-35 EAST WERE THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT
KAUS TO COVER THE EXPECTED CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME ONLY LOOKING
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 02/09Z-12Z...THEN DECREASE TO
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOG THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...WITH HI RES MODELS INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL AND
VISIBILTIES TRENDING THIS WAS AT SOME SITES. OTHERWISE...YESTERDAYS
SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND WE ARE LEFT
WITH JUST VERY PATCHY DRIZZLE.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR MIDDAY...WITH
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ENTERING THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA AROUND
21Z AND SOUTHERN CWA AND SAN ANTONIO AREA AROUND 00Z. LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL...RESULTING IN DRYING
WEST OF I-35 AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
A FEW HI RES MODELS INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AROUND THE AUSTIN AREA...BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE POOL
RESIDES. HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. FALLING TEMPS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...
WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. DEPENDING ON PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS.

A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY MONDAY
MORNING. DRIER AND COOLER ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTH AND WEST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CUT OFF NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY AXIS ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN RAIN. HIGH
END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS TUESDAY. COOL TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH WESTERN AREAS MAY
BEGIN TO SEE MID LEVEL DRYING...WITH BEST POPS CONFINED MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ELEVATED LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
DURING THIS TIME...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PHASING INTO THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  37  51  37  54 /  30  -    0   0  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  36  51  34  53 /  30  -    0   0  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  38  53  37  52 /  30  10   0   0  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  32  49  33  54 /  20   0   0   0  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  41  56  41  52 /  20  -    0   0  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        67  34  49  33  54 /  20   0   0   0  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  39  56  38  51 /  20  10   0   0  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  37  51  36  52 /  30  10   0   0  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  38  50  36  54 /  50  10   0   0  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       70  39  54  38  52 /  20  10   0   0  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  40  55  39  52 /  20  10   0   0  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KEWX 011136 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
536 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DRIZZLE
AND FOG REMAINING. CEILINGS VARY FROM LIFR TO MVFR WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS EVEN UP TO VFR. FOR THE TAFS WILL START OUT WITH
LIFR/MVFR CEILINGS. AFTER 16Z-18Z SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR/VFR. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A PRE-FRONTAL TROF PUSH INTO THE
REGION 18Z-20Z WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT 21Z AT KAUS AND KDRT THEN
AROUND 23Z FOR KSAT/KSSF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY I-35 EAST WERE THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT
KAUS TO COVER THE EXPECTED CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME ONLY LOOKING
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 02/09Z-12Z...THEN DECREASE TO
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOG THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...WITH HI RES MODELS INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL AND
VISIBILTIES TRENDING THIS WAS AT SOME SITES. OTHERWISE...YESTERDAYS
SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND WE ARE LEFT
WITH JUST VERY PATCHY DRIZZLE.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR MIDDAY...WITH
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ENTERING THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA AROUND
21Z AND SOUTHERN CWA AND SAN ANTONIO AREA AROUND 00Z. LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL...RESULTING IN DRYING
WEST OF I-35 AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
A FEW HI RES MODELS INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AROUND THE AUSTIN AREA...BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE POOL
RESIDES. HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. FALLING TEMPS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...
WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. DEPENDING ON PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS.

A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY MONDAY
MORNING. DRIER AND COOLER ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTH AND WEST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CUT OFF NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY AXIS ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN RAIN. HIGH
END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS TUESDAY. COOL TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH WESTERN AREAS MAY
BEGIN TO SEE MID LEVEL DRYING...WITH BEST POPS CONFINED MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ELEVATED LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
DURING THIS TIME...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PHASING INTO THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  37  51  37  54 /  30  -    0   0  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  36  51  34  53 /  30  -    0   0  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  38  53  37  52 /  30  10   0   0  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  32  49  33  54 /  20   0   0   0  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  41  56  41  52 /  20  -    0   0  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        67  34  49  33  54 /  20   0   0   0  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  39  56  38  51 /  20  10   0   0  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  37  51  36  52 /  30  10   0   0  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  38  50  36  54 /  50  10   0   0  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       70  39  54  38  52 /  20  10   0   0  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  40  55  39  52 /  20  10   0   0  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBRO 011134 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
534 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR AND ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. PRIOR TO THE FRONT WINDS NEARLY
GO CALM AND PATCHY DENSE FOG AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
AND ARE MENTIONED IN TEMPO GROUPS AT KBRO AND KHRL. STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS
TO GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS AT THE TERMINAL SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...

IMPACTS... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG SHARP COLD FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT MARINE
IMPACTS.

RELEVANT FEATURES... CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO WITH STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET. A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER MOVING INTO THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE

TODAY... SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB AND SW-W
850-700MB TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARM THE ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG INVERSION
AT 850MB. THIS WARMING AND CAP SHOULD SQUASH ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TODAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM UP AS WELL WITH DOWNSLOPING AND
COMPRESSION IN ADVANCE OF TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT. MODELS AND GOING
FORECAST CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. IF MORE SUN
BREAKS THROUGH THE MID TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO THE
SUBTROPICAL JET TEMPERATURES COULD EXCEED EXPECTED HIGHS BY 2 TO 4
DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF UPPER VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... MODEL ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO HELP
SLACKEN WINDS NEAR CALM WITH SOME FOG PRODUCTION PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE. STRONG UPPER JET TRACKS OVER THE REGION PRODUCING SPEED
DIVERGENCE COMBINING WITH A WEAKENING AND CAP AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT AND LATEST FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE CWA AND GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE NIGHT. 25-35KT 925-850MB JET TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE WITH STRONGEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK.
WINDS ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
HOURS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THE MORE
WITH SIGNIFICANT FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE DELAYED UNTIL THE STRONGER
WIND GRADIENT DEVELOPS UNTIL AFTER 3 AM. BOTH GFS AND NAM
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS ARE
LIKELY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S MID MORNING THEN RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
MONDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE BORDER.
HIGHER CLOUDS TO MAINTAIN A THICKER VEIL OF CLOUDS DUE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
OVERALL SPEED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE
ECMWF MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE GFS HOLDS ON TO
PRECIPITATION LONGER WHICH LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ENDS PRECIPITATION
OVER THE LAND AREAS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED POPS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME OVER TO THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHT LEAN OVER TO THE
GFS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE A
CHALLENGE...IF CLOUDS HOLD IN LONGER MAY NOT REACH UPPER 60S FOR
HIGHS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FRESH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR FRIDAY IN THE
LOWER 60S BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
RETURN BY SATURDAY LATE MORNING...A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S BY NEXT SUNDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
TODAY WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND AND
LOWERING SEAS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR THE GULF
WATERS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE GALE WARNING. FOR THE LAGUNA
STRONGEST EXPECTED WIND GUSTS JUST SHY OF GALES WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS A GOOD BET FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST NOON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
INBOUND UPPER LOW WITH OFFSHORE WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE EAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HANG ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE OFFSHORE LOW...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST BEYOND THE
LOCALLY FORECASTED MARINE ZONES. THE COASTAL LOW PULLS OUT
WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH WINDS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  54  54  50 /  10  40  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          80  55  55  49 /  10  40  20  20
HARLINGEN            81  53  56  48 /  10  40  20  20
MCALLEN              83  53  57  49 /  10  40  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      83  52  58  46 /  10  30  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/55



000
FXUS64 KBRO 011134 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
534 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR AND ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. PRIOR TO THE FRONT WINDS NEARLY
GO CALM AND PATCHY DENSE FOG AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
AND ARE MENTIONED IN TEMPO GROUPS AT KBRO AND KHRL. STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS
TO GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS AT THE TERMINAL SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...

IMPACTS... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG SHARP COLD FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT MARINE
IMPACTS.

RELEVANT FEATURES... CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO WITH STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET. A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER MOVING INTO THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE

TODAY... SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB AND SW-W
850-700MB TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARM THE ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG INVERSION
AT 850MB. THIS WARMING AND CAP SHOULD SQUASH ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TODAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM UP AS WELL WITH DOWNSLOPING AND
COMPRESSION IN ADVANCE OF TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT. MODELS AND GOING
FORECAST CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. IF MORE SUN
BREAKS THROUGH THE MID TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO THE
SUBTROPICAL JET TEMPERATURES COULD EXCEED EXPECTED HIGHS BY 2 TO 4
DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF UPPER VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... MODEL ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO HELP
SLACKEN WINDS NEAR CALM WITH SOME FOG PRODUCTION PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE. STRONG UPPER JET TRACKS OVER THE REGION PRODUCING SPEED
DIVERGENCE COMBINING WITH A WEAKENING AND CAP AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT AND LATEST FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE CWA AND GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE NIGHT. 25-35KT 925-850MB JET TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE WITH STRONGEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK.
WINDS ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
HOURS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THE MORE
WITH SIGNIFICANT FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE DELAYED UNTIL THE STRONGER
WIND GRADIENT DEVELOPS UNTIL AFTER 3 AM. BOTH GFS AND NAM
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS ARE
LIKELY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S MID MORNING THEN RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
MONDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE BORDER.
HIGHER CLOUDS TO MAINTAIN A THICKER VEIL OF CLOUDS DUE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
OVERALL SPEED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE
ECMWF MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE GFS HOLDS ON TO
PRECIPITATION LONGER WHICH LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ENDS PRECIPITATION
OVER THE LAND AREAS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED POPS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME OVER TO THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHT LEAN OVER TO THE
GFS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE A
CHALLENGE...IF CLOUDS HOLD IN LONGER MAY NOT REACH UPPER 60S FOR
HIGHS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FRESH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR FRIDAY IN THE
LOWER 60S BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
RETURN BY SATURDAY LATE MORNING...A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S BY NEXT SUNDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
TODAY WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND AND
LOWERING SEAS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR THE GULF
WATERS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE GALE WARNING. FOR THE LAGUNA
STRONGEST EXPECTED WIND GUSTS JUST SHY OF GALES WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS A GOOD BET FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST NOON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
INBOUND UPPER LOW WITH OFFSHORE WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE EAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HANG ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE OFFSHORE LOW...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST BEYOND THE
LOCALLY FORECASTED MARINE ZONES. THE COASTAL LOW PULLS OUT
WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH WINDS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  54  54  50 /  10  40  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          80  55  55  49 /  10  40  20  20
HARLINGEN            81  53  56  48 /  10  40  20  20
MCALLEN              83  53  57  49 /  10  40  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      83  52  58  46 /  10  30  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/55



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 011123
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
523 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Most sites are VFR early this morning, except KSOA which is LIFR.
Given the patchy nature of the fog/stratus, TEMPOs were included at
some of the sites, with generally VFR conditions prevailing. All
sites will become VFR by late morning/early afternoon as a cold
front moves through the region. Expect north winds of 12 to 18
knots, with higher gusts, then decreasing this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
The upper level trough that brought much needed rainfall to West
Central Texas yesterday will continue to move east of the area
this morning. Slight chance PoPs were continued across the
Northwest Hill Country for any lingering showers this morning, but
most precipitation should be south and east of the area by mid
morning. Areas of dense fog have developed across the Northwest
Hill Country early this morning. Additional areas of fog may
develop across West Central Texas this morning, especially in
areas that have cleared. We have opted to not issue a fog advisory
at this time, but an advisory may eventually be needed if the fog
becomes more widespread than currently anticipated.

As the trough exits the area, a cold front will move through West
Central Texas this morning, resulting in north winds of 10 to 15
mph and cooler temperatures. Skies will clear by late
morning/early afternoon, with highs ranging from near 50 across
the Big Country, to the low to mid 60s across the Interstate 10
corridor. Fairly good radiational cooling conditions are expected
Monday morning, with overnight lows dropping into the mid 20s to
near 30.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)

Mainly dry through the next week, with temperatures generally
near normal with a couple of exceptions.

On Monday, we will be cooler than normal behind the cold front
moving through today, but dry, and winds will be turning from the
northeast to the south by the evening hours as sfc lee troughing
to our northwest develops.

As the upper level low currently over northwestern Mexico
approaches and eventually moves across South Texas Tuesday night,
it will bring a chance for mainly showers to the southern 1/3 of
the forecast area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The cloud
cover associated with the system should result in slightly cooler
temperatures across the I-10 corridor compared with the rest of
the forecast area, so have highs in the 50s for southern areas
Tuesday while the rest of the CWA is in the 60s.

As the upper level low moves by our area to the south on
Wednesday, the entire area will warm into the 60s. Another cold
front will move through the area Wednesday night, resulting in
another brief cool down for Thursday. Friday into Saturday, an
upper level ridge will strengthen over the southwestern U. S., and
spread into Texas, resulting in warming temperatures and dry
conditions. Highs will warm into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees
across the area by Saturday.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  52  24  50  35  63 /  10   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  60  26  54  35  62 /  10   0   5   5   5
Junction  65  30  54  33  57 /  20   5   5   5  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 011123
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
523 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Most sites are VFR early this morning, except KSOA which is LIFR.
Given the patchy nature of the fog/stratus, TEMPOs were included at
some of the sites, with generally VFR conditions prevailing. All
sites will become VFR by late morning/early afternoon as a cold
front moves through the region. Expect north winds of 12 to 18
knots, with higher gusts, then decreasing this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
The upper level trough that brought much needed rainfall to West
Central Texas yesterday will continue to move east of the area
this morning. Slight chance PoPs were continued across the
Northwest Hill Country for any lingering showers this morning, but
most precipitation should be south and east of the area by mid
morning. Areas of dense fog have developed across the Northwest
Hill Country early this morning. Additional areas of fog may
develop across West Central Texas this morning, especially in
areas that have cleared. We have opted to not issue a fog advisory
at this time, but an advisory may eventually be needed if the fog
becomes more widespread than currently anticipated.

As the trough exits the area, a cold front will move through West
Central Texas this morning, resulting in north winds of 10 to 15
mph and cooler temperatures. Skies will clear by late
morning/early afternoon, with highs ranging from near 50 across
the Big Country, to the low to mid 60s across the Interstate 10
corridor. Fairly good radiational cooling conditions are expected
Monday morning, with overnight lows dropping into the mid 20s to
near 30.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)

Mainly dry through the next week, with temperatures generally
near normal with a couple of exceptions.

On Monday, we will be cooler than normal behind the cold front
moving through today, but dry, and winds will be turning from the
northeast to the south by the evening hours as sfc lee troughing
to our northwest develops.

As the upper level low currently over northwestern Mexico
approaches and eventually moves across South Texas Tuesday night,
it will bring a chance for mainly showers to the southern 1/3 of
the forecast area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The cloud
cover associated with the system should result in slightly cooler
temperatures across the I-10 corridor compared with the rest of
the forecast area, so have highs in the 50s for southern areas
Tuesday while the rest of the CWA is in the 60s.

As the upper level low moves by our area to the south on
Wednesday, the entire area will warm into the 60s. Another cold
front will move through the area Wednesday night, resulting in
another brief cool down for Thursday. Friday into Saturday, an
upper level ridge will strengthen over the southwestern U. S., and
spread into Texas, resulting in warming temperatures and dry
conditions. Highs will warm into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees
across the area by Saturday.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  52  24  50  35  63 /  10   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  60  26  54  35  62 /  10   0   5   5   5
Junction  65  30  54  33  57 /  20   5   5   5  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 011123
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
523 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Most sites are VFR early this morning, except KSOA which is LIFR.
Given the patchy nature of the fog/stratus, TEMPOs were included at
some of the sites, with generally VFR conditions prevailing. All
sites will become VFR by late morning/early afternoon as a cold
front moves through the region. Expect north winds of 12 to 18
knots, with higher gusts, then decreasing this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
The upper level trough that brought much needed rainfall to West
Central Texas yesterday will continue to move east of the area
this morning. Slight chance PoPs were continued across the
Northwest Hill Country for any lingering showers this morning, but
most precipitation should be south and east of the area by mid
morning. Areas of dense fog have developed across the Northwest
Hill Country early this morning. Additional areas of fog may
develop across West Central Texas this morning, especially in
areas that have cleared. We have opted to not issue a fog advisory
at this time, but an advisory may eventually be needed if the fog
becomes more widespread than currently anticipated.

As the trough exits the area, a cold front will move through West
Central Texas this morning, resulting in north winds of 10 to 15
mph and cooler temperatures. Skies will clear by late
morning/early afternoon, with highs ranging from near 50 across
the Big Country, to the low to mid 60s across the Interstate 10
corridor. Fairly good radiational cooling conditions are expected
Monday morning, with overnight lows dropping into the mid 20s to
near 30.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)

Mainly dry through the next week, with temperatures generally
near normal with a couple of exceptions.

On Monday, we will be cooler than normal behind the cold front
moving through today, but dry, and winds will be turning from the
northeast to the south by the evening hours as sfc lee troughing
to our northwest develops.

As the upper level low currently over northwestern Mexico
approaches and eventually moves across South Texas Tuesday night,
it will bring a chance for mainly showers to the southern 1/3 of
the forecast area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The cloud
cover associated with the system should result in slightly cooler
temperatures across the I-10 corridor compared with the rest of
the forecast area, so have highs in the 50s for southern areas
Tuesday while the rest of the CWA is in the 60s.

As the upper level low moves by our area to the south on
Wednesday, the entire area will warm into the 60s. Another cold
front will move through the area Wednesday night, resulting in
another brief cool down for Thursday. Friday into Saturday, an
upper level ridge will strengthen over the southwestern U. S., and
spread into Texas, resulting in warming temperatures and dry
conditions. Highs will warm into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees
across the area by Saturday.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  52  24  50  35  63 /  10   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  60  26  54  35  62 /  10   0   5   5   5
Junction  65  30  54  33  57 /  20   5   5   5  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels







000
FXUS64 KSJT 011123
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
523 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Most sites are VFR early this morning, except KSOA which is LIFR.
Given the patchy nature of the fog/stratus, TEMPOs were included at
some of the sites, with generally VFR conditions prevailing. All
sites will become VFR by late morning/early afternoon as a cold
front moves through the region. Expect north winds of 12 to 18
knots, with higher gusts, then decreasing this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
The upper level trough that brought much needed rainfall to West
Central Texas yesterday will continue to move east of the area
this morning. Slight chance PoPs were continued across the
Northwest Hill Country for any lingering showers this morning, but
most precipitation should be south and east of the area by mid
morning. Areas of dense fog have developed across the Northwest
Hill Country early this morning. Additional areas of fog may
develop across West Central Texas this morning, especially in
areas that have cleared. We have opted to not issue a fog advisory
at this time, but an advisory may eventually be needed if the fog
becomes more widespread than currently anticipated.

As the trough exits the area, a cold front will move through West
Central Texas this morning, resulting in north winds of 10 to 15
mph and cooler temperatures. Skies will clear by late
morning/early afternoon, with highs ranging from near 50 across
the Big Country, to the low to mid 60s across the Interstate 10
corridor. Fairly good radiational cooling conditions are expected
Monday morning, with overnight lows dropping into the mid 20s to
near 30.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)

Mainly dry through the next week, with temperatures generally
near normal with a couple of exceptions.

On Monday, we will be cooler than normal behind the cold front
moving through today, but dry, and winds will be turning from the
northeast to the south by the evening hours as sfc lee troughing
to our northwest develops.

As the upper level low currently over northwestern Mexico
approaches and eventually moves across South Texas Tuesday night,
it will bring a chance for mainly showers to the southern 1/3 of
the forecast area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The cloud
cover associated with the system should result in slightly cooler
temperatures across the I-10 corridor compared with the rest of
the forecast area, so have highs in the 50s for southern areas
Tuesday while the rest of the CWA is in the 60s.

As the upper level low moves by our area to the south on
Wednesday, the entire area will warm into the 60s. Another cold
front will move through the area Wednesday night, resulting in
another brief cool down for Thursday. Friday into Saturday, an
upper level ridge will strengthen over the southwestern U. S., and
spread into Texas, resulting in warming temperatures and dry
conditions. Highs will warm into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees
across the area by Saturday.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  52  24  50  35  63 /  10   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  60  26  54  35  62 /  10   0   5   5   5
Junction  65  30  54  33  57 /  20   5   5   5  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLUB 011120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
OBSTRUCTIONS DUE TO FOG HAS CAUSED VIS TO DROP TO VFR AT KLBB AND
IFR AT KCDS. CONDITIONS HAVE RECENTLY IMPROVED ABOVE 6SM AT KPVW.
FURTHERMORE...LIFR DECKS ARE OCCURRING AT KCDS...IFR DECKS AT KLBB AND
MVFR DECKS AT KPVW. WILL EXPECT BOTH VIS AND DECKS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL VEER WINDS TO THE NORTH SUSTAINED AT 18-19 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 24 KTS. THIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE
THEREAFTER...NORTH WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE TO BELOW 12 KTS.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST PARTICULARY AT KLBB AND
KPVW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW THAT PROVIDED THE REGION WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY...AND RESULTED IN A RECORD
BREAKING RAINFALL FOR KLBB...WAS GRADUALLY TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS
WRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THIS MORNING GIVEN ITS SRN LATITUDE...HOWEVER MOIST GROUNDS
AND LIGHT S-SW SFC WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS /WITH INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE/ AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. VIS HAVE RANGED FROM 7 MILES AT KPVW...4 MILES
AT KLBB AND 3 MILES AT KCDS PER 08Z METARS. VIS CONDITIONS ARE
BETTER AT KLBB AND KPVW LIKELY GIVEN THE W-SW WIND...WHICH IS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THAT AIDS IN DRIER CONDITIONS /VERSUS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW AT KCDS/. VIS CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY
DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING...THAT IS UNTIL AN UA SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SENDS DOWN A
COLD FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE REGION AOA 12Z AND CLEARING THE SRN
ZONES BETWEEN 15Z- 18Z. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO VEER TO
THE W-NW AND FINALLY TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL RESULT IN PWATS
DROPPING FROM 0.60-0.75 INCHES DOWN TO BELOW 0.50 INCHES AFTER THE
FROPA...THUS DRYING OUT LOW LEVELS AND SCOURING OUT ANY LINGERING
FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND HENCE DRIZZLE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 4-6 MB PER 3 HOURS SUGGEST NRLY
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH EARLY THIS AFTN. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO
DECLINING WIND SPEEDS WHILST WINDS VEER TO THE E-NE.

CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
40S ON THE CAPROCK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S-SE SFC WINDS WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S.

LONG TERM...
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN A FAIRLY
STAGNANT WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH PATTERN.
FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN AND
TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS WEEK.

FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY AS LEE
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ERN NM UNDERNEATH THE NWLY UPPER FLOW. THESE
BREEZY SW TO WEST WINDS TO USHER IN A WARMING TREND...PEAKING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS FRONT TO
BE DRIVEN SOUTH BY A FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING
SEWD IN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED NWLY FLOW. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...SO POPS TO REMAIN BELOW MENTION. TEMPS BRIEFLY COOLER
THURSDAY BEFORE THE FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND RETURN OF A
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT POINT TO MARKEDLY WARMER TEMPS BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  22  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         43  21  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  23  52  32 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     47  24  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  23  52  31 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  25  52  30 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  25  53  31 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  23  48  35 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          49  24  50  32 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  24  50  35 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 011120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
OBSTRUCTIONS DUE TO FOG HAS CAUSED VIS TO DROP TO VFR AT KLBB AND
IFR AT KCDS. CONDITIONS HAVE RECENTLY IMPROVED ABOVE 6SM AT KPVW.
FURTHERMORE...LIFR DECKS ARE OCCURRING AT KCDS...IFR DECKS AT KLBB AND
MVFR DECKS AT KPVW. WILL EXPECT BOTH VIS AND DECKS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL VEER WINDS TO THE NORTH SUSTAINED AT 18-19 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 24 KTS. THIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE
THEREAFTER...NORTH WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE TO BELOW 12 KTS.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST PARTICULARY AT KLBB AND
KPVW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW THAT PROVIDED THE REGION WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY...AND RESULTED IN A RECORD
BREAKING RAINFALL FOR KLBB...WAS GRADUALLY TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS
WRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THIS MORNING GIVEN ITS SRN LATITUDE...HOWEVER MOIST GROUNDS
AND LIGHT S-SW SFC WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS /WITH INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE/ AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. VIS HAVE RANGED FROM 7 MILES AT KPVW...4 MILES
AT KLBB AND 3 MILES AT KCDS PER 08Z METARS. VIS CONDITIONS ARE
BETTER AT KLBB AND KPVW LIKELY GIVEN THE W-SW WIND...WHICH IS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THAT AIDS IN DRIER CONDITIONS /VERSUS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW AT KCDS/. VIS CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY
DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING...THAT IS UNTIL AN UA SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SENDS DOWN A
COLD FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE REGION AOA 12Z AND CLEARING THE SRN
ZONES BETWEEN 15Z- 18Z. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO VEER TO
THE W-NW AND FINALLY TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL RESULT IN PWATS
DROPPING FROM 0.60-0.75 INCHES DOWN TO BELOW 0.50 INCHES AFTER THE
FROPA...THUS DRYING OUT LOW LEVELS AND SCOURING OUT ANY LINGERING
FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND HENCE DRIZZLE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 4-6 MB PER 3 HOURS SUGGEST NRLY
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH EARLY THIS AFTN. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO
DECLINING WIND SPEEDS WHILST WINDS VEER TO THE E-NE.

CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
40S ON THE CAPROCK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S-SE SFC WINDS WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S.

LONG TERM...
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN A FAIRLY
STAGNANT WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH PATTERN.
FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN AND
TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS WEEK.

FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY AS LEE
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ERN NM UNDERNEATH THE NWLY UPPER FLOW. THESE
BREEZY SW TO WEST WINDS TO USHER IN A WARMING TREND...PEAKING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS FRONT TO
BE DRIVEN SOUTH BY A FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING
SEWD IN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED NWLY FLOW. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...SO POPS TO REMAIN BELOW MENTION. TEMPS BRIEFLY COOLER
THURSDAY BEFORE THE FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND RETURN OF A
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT POINT TO MARKEDLY WARMER TEMPS BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  22  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         43  21  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  23  52  32 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     47  24  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  23  52  31 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  25  52  30 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  25  53  31 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  23  48  35 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          49  24  50  32 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  24  50  35 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KAMA 011105
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
505 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING AND SHOULD LIFT TO WITHIN
VFR CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL
REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT UNTIL EARLY
EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY...GRADUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY DAYBREAK BUT REMAINING UNDER 10
KNOTS.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD JOURNEY AND NORTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY. WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND THEY WILL START TO
TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A NEW LEE-
SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
MONDAY WILL HELP TO SEND TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL AND
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FRONT WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN START TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST NUDGES EASTWARD A LITTLE AND
HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 011105
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
505 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON BEHIND
A COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING AND SHOULD LIFT TO WITHIN
VFR CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL
REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT UNTIL EARLY
EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY...GRADUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY DAYBREAK BUT REMAINING UNDER 10
KNOTS.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD JOURNEY AND NORTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY. WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND THEY WILL START TO
TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A NEW LEE-
SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
MONDAY WILL HELP TO SEND TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL AND
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FRONT WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN START TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST NUDGES EASTWARD A LITTLE AND
HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 011057
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
357 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA WHICH BROUGHT THE LOWLAND
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ON SATURDAY...CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
AND TAKE ANY REMAINING MOISTURE WITH IT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL BEFORE WARMING
BACK TO NORMAL MONDAY. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM SYSTEM ABOUT OVER. DOUBLE LOW FROM YESTERDAY HAS
DEVOLVED INTO SINGLE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA AS NORTHERN LOW FROM
SATURDAY FILLED IN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. IN CONCERT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH NOW OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
REMAINING MOISTURE WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. WOULDN`T
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES YET THIS MORNING BUT LEFT POPS OUT OF THE
ZONES OTHER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE BOOTHEEL...CLOSEST TO
THE UPPER LOW. DENSE FOG WAS A CONCERN AS LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
DEVELOPED MOST AREAS WITH THE WET GROUND. HRRR ALSO SHOWED THE LOW
DEPRESSIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 11Z...BUT IN THE END FIGURED
WITH CLOUDS STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WOULD JUST
MENTION FOG IN THE ZONES/GRIDS. ONE OTHER NOTE...MODERATE RAINFALL
OVER THE GILA REGION ON SATURDAY PRODUCED DECENT RISES IN THE GILA
RIVER. THE GILA RIVER AT VIRDEN ACTUALLY BRIEFLY TOPPED ACTION STAGE
BUT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DROP TODAY. ALL OTHER GILA RIVER GAGES
REMAINED BELOW ACTION STAGE.

OTHERWISE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY
AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWER CLOUDS OUT ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES
OF HIGHER CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH OLD WEAKENED
PACIFIC FRONT ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH RUNS DOWN THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. NOT MUCH COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS BUT ENOUGH TO
STUNT THE WARMING FOR A DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY AND THEN TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THE REST OF THE WEEK. BY NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOWLAND TEMPS COULD TOP 70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z...
CONDITIONS MOSTLY VFR NOW WITH SCT/BKN100 WITH FEW LAYERS TO 250.
EXPECT PATCHY IFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME...WITH VISIBILITIES OF
ONE-QUARTER TO ONE MILE. CONDITIONS DISSIPATING AFTER 17Z. CLOUDS
DECREASING AFTER 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS
OFF TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THROUGH
MID MORNING. MIN RH`S TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND DECREASING TO THE
40S BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS LOOKS VERY
UNEVENTFUL...WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND BEYOND. BY THE END OF THE WEEK HIGH TEMPS
COULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 57  34  61  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  31  59  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              56  32  59  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              56  30  57  33  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              40  22  45  27  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   54  33  58  34  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             51  31  54  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  57  31  60  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               57  30  60  33  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      59  35  61  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               55  29  60  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  35  61  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  31  55  35  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  57  33  60  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            57  32  60  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  34  59  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           56  29  58  32  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   59  32  62  33  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                58  35  60  36  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               56  32  59  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 45  26  52  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               46  24  48  28  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                47  27  50  33  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 49  29  54  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               52  33  55  35  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               56  31  59  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            51  29  54  31  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  53  31  55  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   55  25  57  22  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              52  22  56  19  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 53  33  55  34  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  58  30  62  33  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 58  31  61  32  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          58  30  62  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              54  32  60  33  63 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/99








000
FXUS64 KEPZ 011057
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
357 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA WHICH BROUGHT THE LOWLAND
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ON SATURDAY...CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
AND TAKE ANY REMAINING MOISTURE WITH IT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL BEFORE WARMING
BACK TO NORMAL MONDAY. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM SYSTEM ABOUT OVER. DOUBLE LOW FROM YESTERDAY HAS
DEVOLVED INTO SINGLE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA AS NORTHERN LOW FROM
SATURDAY FILLED IN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. IN CONCERT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH NOW OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
REMAINING MOISTURE WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. WOULDN`T
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES YET THIS MORNING BUT LEFT POPS OUT OF THE
ZONES OTHER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE BOOTHEEL...CLOSEST TO
THE UPPER LOW. DENSE FOG WAS A CONCERN AS LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
DEVELOPED MOST AREAS WITH THE WET GROUND. HRRR ALSO SHOWED THE LOW
DEPRESSIONS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 11Z...BUT IN THE END FIGURED
WITH CLOUDS STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WOULD JUST
MENTION FOG IN THE ZONES/GRIDS. ONE OTHER NOTE...MODERATE RAINFALL
OVER THE GILA REGION ON SATURDAY PRODUCED DECENT RISES IN THE GILA
RIVER. THE GILA RIVER AT VIRDEN ACTUALLY BRIEFLY TOPPED ACTION STAGE
BUT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY DROP TODAY. ALL OTHER GILA RIVER GAGES
REMAINED BELOW ACTION STAGE.

OTHERWISE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY
AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWER CLOUDS OUT ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES
OF HIGHER CLOUDS WILL PUSH THROUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH OLD WEAKENED
PACIFIC FRONT ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH RUNS DOWN THE FRONT
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. NOT MUCH COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS BUT ENOUGH TO
STUNT THE WARMING FOR A DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY AND THEN TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THE REST OF THE WEEK. BY NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOWLAND TEMPS COULD TOP 70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z...
CONDITIONS MOSTLY VFR NOW WITH SCT/BKN100 WITH FEW LAYERS TO 250.
EXPECT PATCHY IFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME...WITH VISIBILITIES OF
ONE-QUARTER TO ONE MILE. CONDITIONS DISSIPATING AFTER 17Z. CLOUDS
DECREASING AFTER 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS
OFF TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THROUGH
MID MORNING. MIN RH`S TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND DECREASING TO THE
40S BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS LOOKS VERY
UNEVENTFUL...WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AND BEYOND. BY THE END OF THE WEEK HIGH TEMPS
COULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 57  34  61  37  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  31  59  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              56  32  59  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              56  30  57  33  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              40  22  45  27  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   54  33  58  34  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             51  31  54  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  57  31  60  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               57  30  60  33  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      59  35  61  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               55  29  60  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  35  61  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  31  55  35  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  57  33  60  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            57  32  60  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          57  34  59  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           56  29  58  32  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   59  32  62  33  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                58  35  60  36  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               56  32  59  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 45  26  52  33  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               46  24  48  28  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                47  27  50  33  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 49  29  54  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               52  33  55  35  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               56  31  59  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            51  29  54  31  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  53  31  55  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   55  25  57  22  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              52  22  56  19  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 53  33  55  34  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  58  30  62  33  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 58  31  61  32  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          58  30  62  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              54  32  60  33  63 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/99








  [top]

000
FXUS64 KCRP 011022
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
422 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER CLOSED LOW REMAINS
PINCHED OFF OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WHILE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS
EAST TODAY. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECLINE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND COASTAL
BEND TO LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH
THE DAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND ANTICIPATE DRYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
GOING INTO MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS
ELEVATED WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. A GALE WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL AND NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT FROM
06Z-12Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING...AND HAVE SCA WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY COMING DOWN
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE BAYS TO NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
LATE MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVERLAND TONIGHT
AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY BE A BIT TRICKY...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING
WIDE VARIANCE WITH REGARD TO HIGHS. GFS IS COMING IN ON THE WARMER
SIDE...WITH SOME SIGHTS IN THE 80S...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS
EVERYTHING MUCH COOLER IN THE LOW 70S. CURRENT THINKING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DRYING OCCURRING WE WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT GOING QUITE AS WARM AS THE GFS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 40S TONIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. TOMORROW WILL BE A MUCH COLDER DAY...WITH HIGHS
STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL
FORECAST GETTING A BIT HIGHER BUT STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES FOR WHEN
TO END THE RAIN FORECAST (EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT). AM GOING TO TREND THINGS IN GRADUALLY ENDING RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL AND VICTORIA AREAS
(SLIGHT CHANCE WESTERN COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BUT
NOTHING FARTHER WEST). ALSO...THINK RAIN WILL NOT BEGIN IN EARNEST
UNTIL TUESDAY (AND PROBABLY MORE IN THE AFTERNOON)...SO HAVE TRIMMED
RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT TO ONLY THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. RAIN GOOD
BET TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING...AND BETTER
BET TUESDAY OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN AREAS AND GULFMEX. RAIN
TAPERS OFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IMPACTS FROM UPPER TROUGH MOVE
EAST. DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
FRONT ON THURSDAY. GFS AND CANADIAN A BIT FASTER AND STRONGER WITH
FRONT THAN ECMWF...AND AM GOING TO LEAN MORE WITH THE GFS AND
CANADIAN BUT NOT WHOLE-HEARTEDLY (THINK POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL
HELP PUSH SURFACE LOW EAST AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN...CANADIAN IS
WAY TOO COLD). NO RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. A FEW SHORT-WAVES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW COMING DOWN ON FRIDAY AND LATE SATURDAY...BUT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...DID LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS ON
TUESDAY GIVEN AREAS OF RAIN...AND COOLER FRIDAY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THE SUPERBLEND
NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  46  55  44  55  /  20  20  10  10  60
VICTORIA          74  41  53  41  53  /  30  20  10  10  60
LAREDO            77  47  57  43  51  /  10  10  10  40  50
ALICE             78  47  56  43  55  /  20  20  10  20  50
ROCKPORT          68  46  53  44  55  /  30  20  10  10  60
COTULLA           73  44  56  43  52  /  20  10  10  20  50
KINGSVILLE        78  48  56  44  56  /  20  20  10  20  50
NAVY CORPUS       70  47  53  47  55  /  20  20  10  10  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 011022
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
422 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER CLOSED LOW REMAINS
PINCHED OFF OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WHILE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS
EAST TODAY. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECLINE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND COASTAL
BEND TO LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH
THE DAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...AND ANTICIPATE DRYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
GOING INTO MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS
ELEVATED WINDS THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. A GALE WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL AND NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT FROM
06Z-12Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING...AND HAVE SCA WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY COMING DOWN
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE BAYS TO NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
LATE MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVERLAND TONIGHT
AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY BE A BIT TRICKY...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING
WIDE VARIANCE WITH REGARD TO HIGHS. GFS IS COMING IN ON THE WARMER
SIDE...WITH SOME SIGHTS IN THE 80S...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS
EVERYTHING MUCH COOLER IN THE LOW 70S. CURRENT THINKING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DRYING OCCURRING WE WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT GOING QUITE AS WARM AS THE GFS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY INTO THE 40S TONIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. TOMORROW WILL BE A MUCH COLDER DAY...WITH HIGHS
STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL
FORECAST GETTING A BIT HIGHER BUT STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES FOR WHEN
TO END THE RAIN FORECAST (EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT). AM GOING TO TREND THINGS IN GRADUALLY ENDING RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL AND VICTORIA AREAS
(SLIGHT CHANCE WESTERN COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BUT
NOTHING FARTHER WEST). ALSO...THINK RAIN WILL NOT BEGIN IN EARNEST
UNTIL TUESDAY (AND PROBABLY MORE IN THE AFTERNOON)...SO HAVE TRIMMED
RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT TO ONLY THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. RAIN GOOD
BET TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING...AND BETTER
BET TUESDAY OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN AREAS AND GULFMEX. RAIN
TAPERS OFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IMPACTS FROM UPPER TROUGH MOVE
EAST. DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
FRONT ON THURSDAY. GFS AND CANADIAN A BIT FASTER AND STRONGER WITH
FRONT THAN ECMWF...AND AM GOING TO LEAN MORE WITH THE GFS AND
CANADIAN BUT NOT WHOLE-HEARTEDLY (THINK POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL
HELP PUSH SURFACE LOW EAST AND BRING COLDER AIR DOWN...CANADIAN IS
WAY TOO COLD). NO RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. A FEW SHORT-WAVES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW COMING DOWN ON FRIDAY AND LATE SATURDAY...BUT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...DID LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS ON
TUESDAY GIVEN AREAS OF RAIN...AND COOLER FRIDAY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THE SUPERBLEND
NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  46  55  44  55  /  20  20  10  10  60
VICTORIA          74  41  53  41  53  /  30  20  10  10  60
LAREDO            77  47  57  43  51  /  10  10  10  40  50
ALICE             78  47  56  43  55  /  20  20  10  20  50
ROCKPORT          68  46  53  44  55  /  30  20  10  10  60
COTULLA           73  44  56  43  52  /  20  10  10  20  50
KINGSVILLE        78  48  56  44  56  /  20  20  10  20  50
NAVY CORPUS       70  47  53  47  55  /  20  20  10  10  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 011021
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
421 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN TWEAKS TO THE FCST PACKAGE WERE TO THE 1ST PERIOD...MAINLY
BUMPING UP TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS SOME. LLVL FLOW HAS BEEN
VEERING TO THE SW/W AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD SHIFT
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. IN ADDITION...APPEARS WE`LL
SEE A PREFRONTAL TROF ARRIVE PRIOR TO THE FRONT ITSELF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL MOISTURE POOLING & SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TAKING THE ABOVE INTO CONSIDERATION
WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS A TOUCH TODAY. STILL THINK MANY AREAS
WILL SEE SOME RAIN BETWEEN NOON (NORTH) AND 7PM (COAST)...BUT THINK
IT WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT LIVED AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A THIN,
FAST SWD MOVING BAND OF SHRA & MOSTLY INSIGNIFICANT TOTALS. MAY
SEE A VERY LOCALIZED 1/4-1/2" SHOULD AN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT NOT EXPECTING THAT AREAWIDE. WILL NEED TO
KEEP ON TEMPS AS ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
WARM-UP CONSIDERING THE MILD START TO THE DAY AND SW/W LLVL WINDS.

FRONT ITSELF WILL PUSH THRU THIS EVENING BRINGING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS TO THE AREA.

NEXT FCST CONCERN IS THE EVENTUAL TIMING/TRACK OF THE UPPER BAJA
LOW AS IT KICKS OUT AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL TROF DURING THE
LATE TUE THRU LATE WED TIME PERIOD. THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS ARE
BACK TO FAVORING THE FURTHER OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE COASTAL TROF
WHICH WOULD KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES/TOTAL CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. PROBABLY WON`T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS AS WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME RUN-TO-RUN
WAFFLING FOR A WHILE.

ONCE THE SYSTEM DOES PASS TO THE EAST (PROBABLY ON THURS) A COLD
FRONT WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT. A QUICK LOOK AT NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY W/ SEASONABLE TEMPS AND A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF.
MAYBE A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY. 47

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SE WINDS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A
BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS. A WICKED TIGHT
GRADIENT IN THE AREA (LIKELY IN PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT/PCPN)
LOOKS TO BE THE CAUSE. THIS GRADIENT STILL EXPECTED TO RELAX SOME
THIS AFTN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. NOT A
LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE PROGGED TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECT-
ING THE WIND SHIFT OVER THE BAYS AROUND SUNSET AND THEN INTO NEAR
AND OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGER NORTH/
NORTHWEST WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL OVERNIGHT (EARLY MON
MORNING) HRS. AT THIS TIME THINKING THAT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST
AIR WILL BE MOVING A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST OF US SO THE THERMAL
GRADIENT MAY NOT BE AS TIGHT HERE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS SUCH
WILL NOT BE UPGRADING THE GALE WATCH WITH THIS FCST...BUT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
DOWNSWING BY TUES MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
EXTENDED MODELS STILL POINTING TO WEDS NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORN FOR
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL BE DEALING WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NRN SITES THIS
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE. GENER-
ALLY VFR SOUTH OF THIS LINE. AS THIS CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVES ON
OUT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING LOW/NO POPS FOR THIS AFTN FOR
MOST OF SE TX AND ONLY A THIN BAND OF PCPN WITH THE COLD FRONT IT-
SELF. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE CURRENT FROPA TIMING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  36  49  35  53 /  40   0   0   0  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  40  51  36  51 /  40  10   0   0  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  43  49  44  51 /  30  40   0   0  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 011021
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
421 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN TWEAKS TO THE FCST PACKAGE WERE TO THE 1ST PERIOD...MAINLY
BUMPING UP TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS SOME. LLVL FLOW HAS BEEN
VEERING TO THE SW/W AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD SHIFT
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. IN ADDITION...APPEARS WE`LL
SEE A PREFRONTAL TROF ARRIVE PRIOR TO THE FRONT ITSELF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL MOISTURE POOLING & SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TAKING THE ABOVE INTO CONSIDERATION
WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS A TOUCH TODAY. STILL THINK MANY AREAS
WILL SEE SOME RAIN BETWEEN NOON (NORTH) AND 7PM (COAST)...BUT THINK
IT WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT LIVED AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A THIN,
FAST SWD MOVING BAND OF SHRA & MOSTLY INSIGNIFICANT TOTALS. MAY
SEE A VERY LOCALIZED 1/4-1/2" SHOULD AN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT NOT EXPECTING THAT AREAWIDE. WILL NEED TO
KEEP ON TEMPS AS ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
WARM-UP CONSIDERING THE MILD START TO THE DAY AND SW/W LLVL WINDS.

FRONT ITSELF WILL PUSH THRU THIS EVENING BRINGING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS TO THE AREA.

NEXT FCST CONCERN IS THE EVENTUAL TIMING/TRACK OF THE UPPER BAJA
LOW AS IT KICKS OUT AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL TROF DURING THE
LATE TUE THRU LATE WED TIME PERIOD. THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS ARE
BACK TO FAVORING THE FURTHER OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE COASTAL TROF
WHICH WOULD KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES/TOTAL CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. PROBABLY WON`T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS AS WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME RUN-TO-RUN
WAFFLING FOR A WHILE.

ONCE THE SYSTEM DOES PASS TO THE EAST (PROBABLY ON THURS) A COLD
FRONT WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT. A QUICK LOOK AT NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY W/ SEASONABLE TEMPS AND A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF.
MAYBE A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY. 47

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SE WINDS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A
BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS. A WICKED TIGHT
GRADIENT IN THE AREA (LIKELY IN PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT/PCPN)
LOOKS TO BE THE CAUSE. THIS GRADIENT STILL EXPECTED TO RELAX SOME
THIS AFTN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. NOT A
LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE PROGGED TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECT-
ING THE WIND SHIFT OVER THE BAYS AROUND SUNSET AND THEN INTO NEAR
AND OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGER NORTH/
NORTHWEST WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL OVERNIGHT (EARLY MON
MORNING) HRS. AT THIS TIME THINKING THAT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST
AIR WILL BE MOVING A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST OF US SO THE THERMAL
GRADIENT MAY NOT BE AS TIGHT HERE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS SUCH
WILL NOT BE UPGRADING THE GALE WATCH WITH THIS FCST...BUT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
DOWNSWING BY TUES MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
EXTENDED MODELS STILL POINTING TO WEDS NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORN FOR
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL BE DEALING WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NRN SITES THIS
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE. GENER-
ALLY VFR SOUTH OF THIS LINE. AS THIS CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVES ON
OUT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING LOW/NO POPS FOR THIS AFTN FOR
MOST OF SE TX AND ONLY A THIN BAND OF PCPN WITH THE COLD FRONT IT-
SELF. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE CURRENT FROPA TIMING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  36  49  35  53 /  40   0   0   0  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  40  51  36  51 /  40  10   0   0  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  43  49  44  51 /  30  40   0   0  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 011021
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
421 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN TWEAKS TO THE FCST PACKAGE WERE TO THE 1ST PERIOD...MAINLY
BUMPING UP TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS SOME. LLVL FLOW HAS BEEN
VEERING TO THE SW/W AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD SHIFT
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. IN ADDITION...APPEARS WE`LL
SEE A PREFRONTAL TROF ARRIVE PRIOR TO THE FRONT ITSELF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL MOISTURE POOLING & SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TAKING THE ABOVE INTO CONSIDERATION
WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS A TOUCH TODAY. STILL THINK MANY AREAS
WILL SEE SOME RAIN BETWEEN NOON (NORTH) AND 7PM (COAST)...BUT THINK
IT WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT LIVED AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A THIN,
FAST SWD MOVING BAND OF SHRA & MOSTLY INSIGNIFICANT TOTALS. MAY
SEE A VERY LOCALIZED 1/4-1/2" SHOULD AN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT NOT EXPECTING THAT AREAWIDE. WILL NEED TO
KEEP ON TEMPS AS ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
WARM-UP CONSIDERING THE MILD START TO THE DAY AND SW/W LLVL WINDS.

FRONT ITSELF WILL PUSH THRU THIS EVENING BRINGING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS TO THE AREA.

NEXT FCST CONCERN IS THE EVENTUAL TIMING/TRACK OF THE UPPER BAJA
LOW AS IT KICKS OUT AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL TROF DURING THE
LATE TUE THRU LATE WED TIME PERIOD. THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS ARE
BACK TO FAVORING THE FURTHER OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE COASTAL TROF
WHICH WOULD KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES/TOTAL CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. PROBABLY WON`T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS AS WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME RUN-TO-RUN
WAFFLING FOR A WHILE.

ONCE THE SYSTEM DOES PASS TO THE EAST (PROBABLY ON THURS) A COLD
FRONT WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT. A QUICK LOOK AT NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY W/ SEASONABLE TEMPS AND A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF.
MAYBE A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY. 47

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SE WINDS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A
BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS. A WICKED TIGHT
GRADIENT IN THE AREA (LIKELY IN PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT/PCPN)
LOOKS TO BE THE CAUSE. THIS GRADIENT STILL EXPECTED TO RELAX SOME
THIS AFTN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. NOT A
LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE PROGGED TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECT-
ING THE WIND SHIFT OVER THE BAYS AROUND SUNSET AND THEN INTO NEAR
AND OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGER NORTH/
NORTHWEST WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL OVERNIGHT (EARLY MON
MORNING) HRS. AT THIS TIME THINKING THAT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST
AIR WILL BE MOVING A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST OF US SO THE THERMAL
GRADIENT MAY NOT BE AS TIGHT HERE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS SUCH
WILL NOT BE UPGRADING THE GALE WATCH WITH THIS FCST...BUT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
DOWNSWING BY TUES MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
EXTENDED MODELS STILL POINTING TO WEDS NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORN FOR
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL BE DEALING WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NRN SITES THIS
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE. GENER-
ALLY VFR SOUTH OF THIS LINE. AS THIS CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVES ON
OUT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING LOW/NO POPS FOR THIS AFTN FOR
MOST OF SE TX AND ONLY A THIN BAND OF PCPN WITH THE COLD FRONT IT-
SELF. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE CURRENT FROPA TIMING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  36  49  35  53 /  40   0   0   0  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  40  51  36  51 /  40  10   0   0  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  43  49  44  51 /  30  40   0   0  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 011021
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
421 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN TWEAKS TO THE FCST PACKAGE WERE TO THE 1ST PERIOD...MAINLY
BUMPING UP TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS SOME. LLVL FLOW HAS BEEN
VEERING TO THE SW/W AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD SHIFT
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. IN ADDITION...APPEARS WE`LL
SEE A PREFRONTAL TROF ARRIVE PRIOR TO THE FRONT ITSELF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL MOISTURE POOLING & SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TAKING THE ABOVE INTO CONSIDERATION
WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS A TOUCH TODAY. STILL THINK MANY AREAS
WILL SEE SOME RAIN BETWEEN NOON (NORTH) AND 7PM (COAST)...BUT THINK
IT WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT LIVED AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A THIN,
FAST SWD MOVING BAND OF SHRA & MOSTLY INSIGNIFICANT TOTALS. MAY
SEE A VERY LOCALIZED 1/4-1/2" SHOULD AN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE COAST BUT NOT EXPECTING THAT AREAWIDE. WILL NEED TO
KEEP ON TEMPS AS ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
WARM-UP CONSIDERING THE MILD START TO THE DAY AND SW/W LLVL WINDS.

FRONT ITSELF WILL PUSH THRU THIS EVENING BRINGING A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS TO THE AREA.

NEXT FCST CONCERN IS THE EVENTUAL TIMING/TRACK OF THE UPPER BAJA
LOW AS IT KICKS OUT AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL TROF DURING THE
LATE TUE THRU LATE WED TIME PERIOD. THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS ARE
BACK TO FAVORING THE FURTHER OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE COASTAL TROF
WHICH WOULD KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES/TOTAL CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. PROBABLY WON`T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS AS WE`LL LIKELY SEE SOME RUN-TO-RUN
WAFFLING FOR A WHILE.

ONCE THE SYSTEM DOES PASS TO THE EAST (PROBABLY ON THURS) A COLD
FRONT WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT. A QUICK LOOK AT NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY W/ SEASONABLE TEMPS AND A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF.
MAYBE A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY. 47

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SE WINDS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A
BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS. A WICKED TIGHT
GRADIENT IN THE AREA (LIKELY IN PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT/PCPN)
LOOKS TO BE THE CAUSE. THIS GRADIENT STILL EXPECTED TO RELAX SOME
THIS AFTN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. NOT A
LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE PROGGED TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND EXPECT-
ING THE WIND SHIFT OVER THE BAYS AROUND SUNSET AND THEN INTO NEAR
AND OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGER NORTH/
NORTHWEST WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL OVERNIGHT (EARLY MON
MORNING) HRS. AT THIS TIME THINKING THAT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST
AIR WILL BE MOVING A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST OF US SO THE THERMAL
GRADIENT MAY NOT BE AS TIGHT HERE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS SUCH
WILL NOT BE UPGRADING THE GALE WATCH WITH THIS FCST...BUT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
DOWNSWING BY TUES MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
EXTENDED MODELS STILL POINTING TO WEDS NIGHT/EARLY THURS MORN FOR
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL BE DEALING WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NRN SITES THIS
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE. GENER-
ALLY VFR SOUTH OF THIS LINE. AS THIS CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVES ON
OUT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING LOW/NO POPS FOR THIS AFTN FOR
MOST OF SE TX AND ONLY A THIN BAND OF PCPN WITH THE COLD FRONT IT-
SELF. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE CURRENT FROPA TIMING. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  36  49  35  53 /  40   0   0   0  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  40  51  36  51 /  40  10   0   0  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            70  43  49  44  51 /  30  40   0   0  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KAMA 011018
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
418 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD JOURNEY AND NORTH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY. WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND THEY WILL START TO
TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A NEW LEE-
SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
MONDAY WILL HELP TO SEND TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL AND
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FRONT WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN START TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST NUDGES EASTWARD A LITTLE AND
HEIGHTS RISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                42  24  54  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  39  20  51  29  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              38  23  55  31  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  43  24  55  30  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              45  26  59  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  43  26  55  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               45  25  51  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 43  24  56  30  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  40  21  54  30  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                45  27  58  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                40  21  48  30  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   40  21  51  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                45  25  47  29  62 /   5   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              48  26  48  30  64 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15




000
FXUS64 KBRO 011013
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
413 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...

IMPACTS... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG SHARP COLD FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT MARINE
IMPACTS.

RELEVANT FEATURES... CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO WITH STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET. A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER MOVING INTO THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE

TODAY... SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB AND SW-W
850-700MB TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARM THE ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG INVERSION
AT 850MB. THIS WARMING AND CAP SHOULD SQUASH ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TODAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM UP AS WELL WITH DOWNSLOPING AND
COMPRESSION IN ADVANCE OF TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT. MODELS AND GOING
FORECAST CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. IF MORE SUN
BREAKS THROUGH THE MID TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO THE
SUBTROPICAL JET TEMPERATURES COULD EXCEED EXPECTED HIGHS BY 2 TO 4
DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF UPPER VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... MODEL ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO HELP
SLACKEN WINDS NEAR CALM WITH SOME FOG PRODUCTION PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE. STRONG UPPER JET TRACKS OVER THE REGION PRODUCING SPEED
DIVERGENCE COMBINING WITH A WEAKENING AND CAP AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT AND LATEST FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE CWA AND GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE NIGHT. 25-35KT 925-850MB JET TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE WITH STRONGEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK.
WINDS ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
HOURS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THE MORE
WITH SIGNIFICANT FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE DELAYED UNTIL THE STRONGER
WIND GRADIENT DEVELOPS UNTIL AFTER 3 AM. BOTH GFS AND NAM
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS ARE
LIKELY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S MID MORNING THEN RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
MONDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE BORDER.
HIGHER CLOUDS TO MAINTAIN A THICKER VEIL OF CLOUDS DUE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
OVERALL SPEED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE
ECMWF MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE GFS HOLDS ON TO
PRECIPITATION LONGER WHICH LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ENDS PRECIPITATION
OVER THE LAND AREAS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED POPS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME OVER TO THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHT LEAN OVER TO THE
GFS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE A
CHALLENGE...IF CLOUDS HOLD IN LONGER MAY NOT REACH UPPER 60S FOR
HIGHS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FRESH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR FRIDAY IN THE
LOWER 60S BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
RETURN BY SATURDAY LATE MORNING...A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
TODAY WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND AND
LOWERING SEAS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR THE GULF
WATERS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE GALE WARNING. FOR THE LAGUNA
STRONGEST EXPECTED WIND GUSTS JUST SHY OF GALES WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS A GOOD BET FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST NOON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
INBOUND UPPER LOW WITH OFFSHORE WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE EAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HANG ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE OFFSHORE LOW...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST BEYOND THE
LOCALLY FORECASTED MARINE ZONES. THE COASTAL LOW PULLS OUT
WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH WINDS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  54  54  50 /  10  40  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          80  55  55  49 /  10  40  20  20
HARLINGEN            81  53  56  48 /  10  40  20  20
MCALLEN              83  53  57  49 /  10  40  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      83  52  58  46 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58



000
FXUS64 KBRO 011013
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
413 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...

IMPACTS... ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG SHARP COLD FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT MARINE
IMPACTS.

RELEVANT FEATURES... CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO WITH STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET. A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER MOVING INTO THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE

TODAY... SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB AND SW-W
850-700MB TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARM THE ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG INVERSION
AT 850MB. THIS WARMING AND CAP SHOULD SQUASH ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TODAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM UP AS WELL WITH DOWNSLOPING AND
COMPRESSION IN ADVANCE OF TONIGHT`S COLD FRONT. MODELS AND GOING
FORECAST CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. IF MORE SUN
BREAKS THROUGH THE MID TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO THE
SUBTROPICAL JET TEMPERATURES COULD EXCEED EXPECTED HIGHS BY 2 TO 4
DEGREES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF UPPER VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... MODEL ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO HELP
SLACKEN WINDS NEAR CALM WITH SOME FOG PRODUCTION PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE. STRONG UPPER JET TRACKS OVER THE REGION PRODUCING SPEED
DIVERGENCE COMBINING WITH A WEAKENING AND CAP AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT AND LATEST FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE CWA AND GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE NIGHT. 25-35KT 925-850MB JET TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE WITH STRONGEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK.
WINDS ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW
HOURS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH WINDY CONDITIONS INLAND.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THE MORE
WITH SIGNIFICANT FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE DELAYED UNTIL THE STRONGER
WIND GRADIENT DEVELOPS UNTIL AFTER 3 AM. BOTH GFS AND NAM
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS ARE
LIKELY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S MID MORNING THEN RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
MONDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE BORDER.
HIGHER CLOUDS TO MAINTAIN A THICKER VEIL OF CLOUDS DUE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
OVERALL SPEED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE
ECMWF MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE GFS HOLDS ON TO
PRECIPITATION LONGER WHICH LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ENDS PRECIPITATION
OVER THE LAND AREAS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE LEANED POPS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME OVER TO THE ECMWF WITH A SLIGHT LEAN OVER TO THE
GFS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE A
CHALLENGE...IF CLOUDS HOLD IN LONGER MAY NOT REACH UPPER 60S FOR
HIGHS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FRESH HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVING IN ITS WAKE. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR FRIDAY IN THE
LOWER 60S BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
RETURN BY SATURDAY LATE MORNING...A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
TODAY WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND AND
LOWERING SEAS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR THE GULF
WATERS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE GALE WARNING. FOR THE LAGUNA
STRONGEST EXPECTED WIND GUSTS JUST SHY OF GALES WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS A GOOD BET FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST NOON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
INBOUND UPPER LOW WITH OFFSHORE WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE EAST.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HANG ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE OFFSHORE LOW...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST BEYOND THE
LOCALLY FORECASTED MARINE ZONES. THE COASTAL LOW PULLS OUT
WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH WINDS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  54  54  50 /  10  40  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          80  55  55  49 /  10  40  20  20
HARLINGEN            81  53  56  48 /  10  40  20  20
MCALLEN              83  53  57  49 /  10  40  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      83  52  58  46 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58




000
FXUS64 KSJT 011000
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
400 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
The upper level trough that brought much needed rainfall to West
Central Texas yesterday will continue to move east of the area
this morning. Slight chance PoPs were continued across the
Northwest Hill Country for any lingering showers this morning, but
most precipitation should be south and east of the area by mid
morning. Areas of dense fog have developed across the Northwest
Hill Country early this morning. Additional areas of fog may
develop across West Central Texas this morning, especially in
areas that have cleared. We have opted to not issue a fog advisory
at this time, but an advisory may eventually be needed if the fog
becomes more widespread than currently anticipated.

As the trough exits the area, a cold front will move through West
Central Texas this morning, resulting in north winds of 10 to 15
mph and cooler temperatures. Skies will clear by late
morning/early afternoon, with highs ranging from near 50 across
the Big Country, to the low to mid 60s across the Interstate 10
corridor. Fairly good radiational cooling conditions are expected
Monday morning, with overnight lows dropping into the mid 20s to
near 30.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)

Mainly dry through the next week, with temperatures generally
near normal with a couple of exceptions.

On Monday, we will be cooler than normal behind the cold front
moving through today, but dry, and winds will be turning from the
northeast to the south by the evening hours as sfc lee troughing
to our northwest develops.

As the upper level low currently over northwestern Mexico
approaches and eventually moves across South Texas Tuesday night,
it will bring a chance for mainly showers to the southern 1/3 of
the forecast area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The cloud
cover associated with the system should result in slightly cooler
temperatures across the I-10 corridor compared with the rest of
the forecast area, so have highs in the 50s for southern areas
Tuesday while the rest of the CWA is in the 60s.

As the upper level low moves by our area to the south on
Wednesday, the entire area will warm into the 60s. Another cold
front will move through the area Wednesday night, resulting in
another brief cool down for Thursday. Friday into Saturday, an
upper level ridge wil strengthen over the southwestern U. S., and
spread into Texas, resulting in warming temperatures and dry
conditons. Highs will warm into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees
across the area by Saturday.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  52  24  50  35  63 /  10   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  60  26  54  35  62 /  10   0   5   5   5
Junction  65  30  54  33  57 /  20   5   5   5  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 011000
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
400 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
The upper level trough that brought much needed rainfall to West
Central Texas yesterday will continue to move east of the area
this morning. Slight chance PoPs were continued across the
Northwest Hill Country for any lingering showers this morning, but
most precipitation should be south and east of the area by mid
morning. Areas of dense fog have developed across the Northwest
Hill Country early this morning. Additional areas of fog may
develop across West Central Texas this morning, especially in
areas that have cleared. We have opted to not issue a fog advisory
at this time, but an advisory may eventually be needed if the fog
becomes more widespread than currently anticipated.

As the trough exits the area, a cold front will move through West
Central Texas this morning, resulting in north winds of 10 to 15
mph and cooler temperatures. Skies will clear by late
morning/early afternoon, with highs ranging from near 50 across
the Big Country, to the low to mid 60s across the Interstate 10
corridor. Fairly good radiational cooling conditions are expected
Monday morning, with overnight lows dropping into the mid 20s to
near 30.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)

Mainly dry through the next week, with temperatures generally
near normal with a couple of exceptions.

On Monday, we will be cooler than normal behind the cold front
moving through today, but dry, and winds will be turning from the
northeast to the south by the evening hours as sfc lee troughing
to our northwest develops.

As the upper level low currently over northwestern Mexico
approaches and eventually moves across South Texas Tuesday night,
it will bring a chance for mainly showers to the southern 1/3 of
the forecast area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The cloud
cover associated with the system should result in slightly cooler
temperatures across the I-10 corridor compared with the rest of
the forecast area, so have highs in the 50s for southern areas
Tuesday while the rest of the CWA is in the 60s.

As the upper level low moves by our area to the south on
Wednesday, the entire area will warm into the 60s. Another cold
front will move through the area Wednesday night, resulting in
another brief cool down for Thursday. Friday into Saturday, an
upper level ridge wil strengthen over the southwestern U. S., and
spread into Texas, resulting in warming temperatures and dry
conditons. Highs will warm into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees
across the area by Saturday.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  52  24  50  35  63 /  10   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  60  26  54  35  62 /  10   0   5   5   5
Junction  65  30  54  33  57 /  20   5   5   5  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMAF 010958
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
358 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Weak pressure gradient and abundant low level moisture has resulted
in areas of dense fog across the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico
Plains and Guadalupe Mountains early this morning. It looks like it
will take the cold front with its increasing northerly winds to
scour out the fog later this morning, so will issue a Dense Fog
Advisory until 15z for the aforementioned areas. The cold front
will move through the forecast area today and keep temperatures
well below normal. In addition guidance is indicating that a short
wave trough across the Big Bend could combine with the southward
moving front to produce a slight chance of thunderstorms today
across the Big Bend.

For Monday through Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
that has plagued the region lately is forecast to track from
southwest Mexico northeast to eastern Texas by Wednesday. As the
system approaches the Big Bend Tuesday, a slight chance of showers
will be possible in that area. High temperatures are expected to
remain below normal Monday but a return to above normal temperatures
is in the offing Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low
forms.

By late Wednesday an amplifying upper level trough across the
eastern half of the nation will push a dry cold front into the
area. Below normal temperatures are expected behind this front
Thursday but a return to above normal temperatures and dry
conditions are expected next Friday and Saturday as another
surface lee trough forms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 51  27  55  31  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              52  26  55  32  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                53  31  60  30  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  36  56  33  /  20  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  31  58  39  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          49  30  55  39  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   49  27  55  29  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   58  27  57  26  /  20  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  25  55  30  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  52  27  55  32  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    56  30  59  29  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

10/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 010958
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
358 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Weak pressure gradient and abundant low level moisture has resulted
in areas of dense fog across the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico
Plains and Guadalupe Mountains early this morning. It looks like it
will take the cold front with its increasing northerly winds to
scour out the fog later this morning, so will issue a Dense Fog
Advisory until 15z for the aforementioned areas. The cold front
will move through the forecast area today and keep temperatures
well below normal. In addition guidance is indicating that a short
wave trough across the Big Bend could combine with the southward
moving front to produce a slight chance of thunderstorms today
across the Big Bend.

For Monday through Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
that has plagued the region lately is forecast to track from
southwest Mexico northeast to eastern Texas by Wednesday. As the
system approaches the Big Bend Tuesday, a slight chance of showers
will be possible in that area. High temperatures are expected to
remain below normal Monday but a return to above normal temperatures
is in the offing Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low
forms.

By late Wednesday an amplifying upper level trough across the
eastern half of the nation will push a dry cold front into the
area. Below normal temperatures are expected behind this front
Thursday but a return to above normal temperatures and dry
conditions are expected next Friday and Saturday as another
surface lee trough forms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 51  27  55  31  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              52  26  55  32  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                53  31  60  30  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  36  56  33  /  20  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  31  58  39  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          49  30  55  39  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   49  27  55  29  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   58  27  57  26  /  20  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  25  55  30  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  52  27  55  32  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    56  30  59  29  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

10/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KEWX 010946
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
346 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOG THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...WITH HI RES MODELS INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL AND
VISIBILTIES TRENDING THIS WAS AT SOME SITES. OTHERWISE...YESTERDAYS
SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND WE ARE LEFT
WITH JUST VERY PATCHY DRIZZLE.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR MIDDAY...WITH
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ENTERING THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA AROUND
21Z AND SOUTHERN CWA AND SAN ANTONIO AREA AROUND 00Z. LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL...RESULTING IN DRYING
WEST OF I-35 AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
A FEW HI RES MODELS INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AROUND THE AUSTIN AREA...BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE POOL
RESIDES. HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. FALLING TEMPS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...
WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. DEPENDING ON PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS.

A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY MONDAY
MORNING. DRIER AND COOLER ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CUT OFF NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY AXIS ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN RAIN. HIGH
END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS TUESDAY. COOL TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH WESTERN AREAS MAY
BEGIN TO SEE MID LEVEL DRYING...WITH BEST POPS CONFINED MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ELEVATED LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
DURING THIS TIME...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PHASING INTO THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  37  51  37  54 /  30  -    0   0  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  36  51  34  53 /  30  -    0   0  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  38  53  37  52 /  30  10   0   0  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  32  49  33  54 /  20   0   0   0  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  41  56  41  52 /  20  -    0   0  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        67  34  49  33  54 /  20   0   0   0  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  39  56  38  51 /  20  10   0   0  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  37  51  36  52 /  30  10   0   0  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  38  50  36  54 /  50  10   0   0  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       70  39  54  38  52 /  20  10   0   0  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  40  55  39  52 /  20  10   0   0  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KEWX 010946
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
346 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOG THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT...WITH HI RES MODELS INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL AND
VISIBILTIES TRENDING THIS WAS AT SOME SITES. OTHERWISE...YESTERDAYS
SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND WE ARE LEFT
WITH JUST VERY PATCHY DRIZZLE.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR MIDDAY...WITH
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ENTERING THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA AROUND
21Z AND SOUTHERN CWA AND SAN ANTONIO AREA AROUND 00Z. LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL...RESULTING IN DRYING
WEST OF I-35 AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
A FEW HI RES MODELS INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AROUND THE AUSTIN AREA...BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE POOL
RESIDES. HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. FALLING TEMPS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...
WITH A BREEZY NORTH WIND DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. DEPENDING ON PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...COULD SEE
HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS.

A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY MONDAY
MORNING. DRIER AND COOLER ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CUT OFF NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY AXIS ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN RAIN. HIGH
END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS TUESDAY. COOL TEMPS GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES...ALTHOUGH WESTERN AREAS MAY
BEGIN TO SEE MID LEVEL DRYING...WITH BEST POPS CONFINED MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. ELEVATED LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
DURING THIS TIME...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PHASING INTO THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              69  37  51  37  54 /  30  -    0   0  40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  36  51  34  53 /  30  -    0   0  40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  38  53  37  52 /  30  10   0   0  60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  32  49  33  54 /  20   0   0   0  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  41  56  41  52 /  20  -    0   0  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        67  34  49  33  54 /  20   0   0   0  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  39  56  38  51 /  20  10   0   0  60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  37  51  36  52 /  30  10   0   0  50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  38  50  36  54 /  50  10   0   0  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       70  39  54  38  52 /  20  10   0   0  60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  40  55  39  52 /  20  10   0   0  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






000
FXUS64 KLUB 010926
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW THAT PROVIDED THE REGION WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY...AND RESULTED IN A RECORD
BREAKING RAINFALL FOR KLBB...WAS GRADUALLY TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS
WRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THIS MORNING GIVEN ITS SRN LATITUDE...HOWEVER MOIST GROUNDS
AND LIGHT S-SW SFC WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS /WITH INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE/ AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. VIS HAVE RANGED FROM 7 MILES AT KPVW...4 MILES
AT KLBB AND 3 MILES AT KCDS PER 08Z METARS. VIS CONDITIONS ARE
BETTER AT KLBB AND KPVW LIKELY GIVEN THE W-SW WIND...WHICH IS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THAT AIDS IN DRIER CONDITIONS /VERSUS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW AT KCDS/. VIS CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY
DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING...THAT IS UNTIL AN UA SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SENDS DOWN A
COLD FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE REGION AOA 12Z AND CLEARING THE SRN
ZONES BETWEEN 15Z- 18Z. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO VEER TO
THE W-NW AND FINALLY TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL RESULT IN PWATS
DROPPING FROM 0.60-0.75 INCHES DOWN TO BELOW 0.50 INCHES AFTER THE
FROPA...THUS DRYING OUT LOW LEVELS AND SCOURING OUT ANY LINGERING
FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND HENCE DRIZZLE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 4-6 MB PER 3 HOURS SUGGEST NRLY
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH EARLY THIS AFTN. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO
DECLINING WIND SPEEDS WHILST WINDS VEER TO THE E-NE.

CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
40S ON THE CAPROCK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S-SE SFC WINDS WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN A FAIRLY
STAGNANT WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH PATTERN.
FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN AND
TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS WEEK.

FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY AS LEE
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ERN NM UNDERNEATH THE NWLY UPPER FLOW. THESE
BREEZY SW TO WEST WINDS TO USHER IN A WARMING TREND...PEAKING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS FRONT TO
BE DRIVEN SOUTH BY A FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING
SEWD IN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED NWLY FLOW. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...SO POPS TO REMAIN BELOW MENTION. TEMPS BRIEFLY COOLER
THURSDAY BEFORE THE FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND RETURN OF A
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT POINT TO MARKEDLY WARMER TEMPS BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  22  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         43  21  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  23  52  32 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     47  24  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  23  52  31 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  25  52  30 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  25  53  31 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  23  48  35 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          49  24  50  32 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  24  50  35 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07



000
FXUS64 KLUB 010926
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW THAT PROVIDED THE REGION WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY...AND RESULTED IN A RECORD
BREAKING RAINFALL FOR KLBB...WAS GRADUALLY TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS
WRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THIS MORNING GIVEN ITS SRN LATITUDE...HOWEVER MOIST GROUNDS
AND LIGHT S-SW SFC WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS /WITH INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE/ AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. VIS HAVE RANGED FROM 7 MILES AT KPVW...4 MILES
AT KLBB AND 3 MILES AT KCDS PER 08Z METARS. VIS CONDITIONS ARE
BETTER AT KLBB AND KPVW LIKELY GIVEN THE W-SW WIND...WHICH IS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THAT AIDS IN DRIER CONDITIONS /VERSUS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW AT KCDS/. VIS CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY
DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING...THAT IS UNTIL AN UA SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SENDS DOWN A
COLD FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE REGION AOA 12Z AND CLEARING THE SRN
ZONES BETWEEN 15Z- 18Z. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO VEER TO
THE W-NW AND FINALLY TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL RESULT IN PWATS
DROPPING FROM 0.60-0.75 INCHES DOWN TO BELOW 0.50 INCHES AFTER THE
FROPA...THUS DRYING OUT LOW LEVELS AND SCOURING OUT ANY LINGERING
FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND HENCE DRIZZLE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 4-6 MB PER 3 HOURS SUGGEST NRLY
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH EARLY THIS AFTN. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO
DECLINING WIND SPEEDS WHILST WINDS VEER TO THE E-NE.

CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
40S ON THE CAPROCK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S-SE SFC WINDS WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN A FAIRLY
STAGNANT WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH PATTERN.
FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN AND
TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS WEEK.

FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY AS LEE
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ERN NM UNDERNEATH THE NWLY UPPER FLOW. THESE
BREEZY SW TO WEST WINDS TO USHER IN A WARMING TREND...PEAKING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS FRONT TO
BE DRIVEN SOUTH BY A FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING
SEWD IN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED NWLY FLOW. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...SO POPS TO REMAIN BELOW MENTION. TEMPS BRIEFLY COOLER
THURSDAY BEFORE THE FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND RETURN OF A
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT POINT TO MARKEDLY WARMER TEMPS BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  22  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         43  21  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  23  52  32 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     47  24  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  23  52  31 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  25  52  30 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  25  53  31 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  23  48  35 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          49  24  50  32 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  24  50  35 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07




000
FXUS64 KFWD 010912
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN BAND IS MOVING EAST...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX. RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SMALL POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAIN. THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AT ALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTH DURING THE MORNING...RAIN SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONT SOUTHEAST
WITH ACTIVITY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...MOST OF THE AREA NORTH
OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO PALESTINE WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE
SUN...DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST FROM MEXICO...IT WILL COME IN PHASE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND WE HAVE LOW POPS TO COVER THAT
EVENT. THE LOW ITSELF WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN TX...WHERE HEAVIER
RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS COLD FRONT...AND WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THAT MAY PROVIDE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AS RIDGING BUILDS IN OFFSHORE BAJA CALIF...NORTH TX WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE
QUITE PLEASANT WITH NO RAIN AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METROPLEX THROUGH 8Z AND THEN RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH. WILL
CARRY JUST A MENTION OF VCSH FROM 8-12Z. GENERALLY IFR CIGS HAVE
SETTLED IN OVER THE TAF SITES NOW AND WHILE LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY AT WACO. VEERING
WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SHOULD HELP KEEP VSBY ABOVE IFR
AND ALSO MAY CAUSE CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR AROUND SUNRISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED IN METROPLEX AROUND 15Z WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES. MVFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AS N/NW WINDS INCREASE TO 20G30KT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  30  44  35  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              63  32  47  34  57 /  20   5   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             57  27  42  30  55 /  60   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  28  44  32  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          56  28  43  31  56 /  30   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            58  30  44  35  58 /  30   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           62  29  44  32  56 /  40   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  31  45  34  56 /  40   5   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            63  33  48  35  56 /  20   5   0   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  28  46  33  61 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 010912
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN BAND IS MOVING EAST...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX. RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SMALL POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAIN. THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AT ALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTH DURING THE MORNING...RAIN SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONT SOUTHEAST
WITH ACTIVITY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...MOST OF THE AREA NORTH
OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO PALESTINE WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE
SUN...DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST FROM MEXICO...IT WILL COME IN PHASE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND WE HAVE LOW POPS TO COVER THAT
EVENT. THE LOW ITSELF WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN TX...WHERE HEAVIER
RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS COLD FRONT...AND WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THAT MAY PROVIDE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AS RIDGING BUILDS IN OFFSHORE BAJA CALIF...NORTH TX WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE
QUITE PLEASANT WITH NO RAIN AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METROPLEX THROUGH 8Z AND THEN RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH. WILL
CARRY JUST A MENTION OF VCSH FROM 8-12Z. GENERALLY IFR CIGS HAVE
SETTLED IN OVER THE TAF SITES NOW AND WHILE LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY AT WACO. VEERING
WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SHOULD HELP KEEP VSBY ABOVE IFR
AND ALSO MAY CAUSE CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR AROUND SUNRISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED IN METROPLEX AROUND 15Z WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES. MVFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AS N/NW WINDS INCREASE TO 20G30KT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  30  44  35  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              63  32  47  34  57 /  20   5   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             57  27  42  30  55 /  60   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  28  44  32  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          56  28  43  31  56 /  30   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            58  30  44  35  58 /  30   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           62  29  44  32  56 /  40   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  31  45  34  56 /  40   5   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            63  33  48  35  56 /  20   5   0   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  28  46  33  61 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KLUB 010545
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS HAVE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IMPROVED AT KLBB AND KCDS
THROUGH IT IS EXPECTED THAT VARYING FLIGHT RULES WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFYING JUST HOW LOW
THINGS WILL GO AND WHEN IS LOW. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO GO
CONSERVATIVE WITH THE FCST. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS BELOW LOCAL
MINIMA IS POSSIBLE AS PLENTIFUL MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

UPDATE...
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE PULLED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND
SUNRISE BUT LIKELIHOOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PCT.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /   0  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26




000
FXUS64 KLUB 010545
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS HAVE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IMPROVED AT KLBB AND KCDS
THROUGH IT IS EXPECTED THAT VARYING FLIGHT RULES WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFYING JUST HOW LOW
THINGS WILL GO AND WHEN IS LOW. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO GO
CONSERVATIVE WITH THE FCST. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS BELOW LOCAL
MINIMA IS POSSIBLE AS PLENTIFUL MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

UPDATE...
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE PULLED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND
SUNRISE BUT LIKELIHOOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PCT.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /   0  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26




000
FXUS64 KLUB 010545
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS HAVE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IMPROVED AT KLBB AND KCDS
THROUGH IT IS EXPECTED THAT VARYING FLIGHT RULES WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFYING JUST HOW LOW
THINGS WILL GO AND WHEN IS LOW. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO GO
CONSERVATIVE WITH THE FCST. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS BELOW LOCAL
MINIMA IS POSSIBLE AS PLENTIFUL MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

UPDATE...
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE PULLED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND
SUNRISE BUT LIKELIHOOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PCT.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /   0  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26



000
FXUS64 KBRO 010541 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1141 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 6 KFT AND HIGHER WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS S TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE N TO NE PRODUCING BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS THE BANDS MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BUT WILL REMAIN LOWER END VFR IMPROVING WITH HIGH CIGS
INTO SUNDAY. SOME MODELS INDICATE IFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE THEN
QUICKLY RISING BACK TO VFR MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS IS NOT
INDICATED IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE WITH THE LOW PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME. CHANCE OF RAIN DIMINISHES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY
EVENING BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE
20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WHEN MORE
PRECISE TIMING IS AVAILABLE AFTER INTERROGATION OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MVFR THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 15Z WITH
LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT...STRONG FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. BROADLY DIFFLUENT JET ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THAT LOW IS
LEADING TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MODESTLY STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES OVER THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND THAT IS INTERACTING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA TO PRODUCE A RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
MEXICO ARE HELPING GENERATE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO.

TONIGHT...
SUBTLE RIPPLES IN SOUTHWESTERLY JET FLOW OVER MEXICO ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AMID BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL WORK WITH STEEPENING
UPPER LAPSE RATES TO HELP SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW OVERALL BUT A
HEAVIER SHOWER COULD BRING A QUICK 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.

SUNDAY...
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WHICH MAY WORK WITH A FEW BREAKS IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO PRODUCE RELATIVELY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 80 DEGREES AND KEPT RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO NIL
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SFC-850 DRYING THAT LAYER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
WINDS SPEEDS WILL BACK OFF AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE
EVENING AND PAINTED AN AREA OF FOG STARTING EARLY IN THE EVENING
NEAR THE COAST AND IN PARTS OF THE METRO AREA. THE STRONG FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH IN THE LATE EVENING AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT WIND WILL VERY LIKELY BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT FROM
THIS FRONT ASIDE FROM THE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A VERY STRONG GRADIENT PUSHING ACROSS WITH THE FRONT AND
STRONG SFC- 850MB COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN 40 TO 45
KNOT WINDS IN THAT LAYER MAKING GUSTS STRONGER. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS ON LAND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...AROUND
25 MPH NEAR THE COAST AND THEN STRONGER OVER THE WATER. BAY AND
NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOW 60S...
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE REPORT OF BUOY 42020 SO EXPECTING OBSERVED
WIND SPEEDS ON ALL WATERS TO BE CLOSER THAN PREVIOUS FRONTS THAT
HAD VERY COLD NEARSHORE WATER PRESENT. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28
TO 32 KNOTS AND GUSTS PUSHING 35 TO 40 LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR ALL WATERS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES
FOR PART OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SUPPORTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL HANG BACK AND BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTING AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO THE FIRST TWO TO
THREE DAYS OF THE WEEK...REPLEAT WITH LOW OVERCAST SKIES...LIGHT
RAIN...AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING ON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST BY DAWN MONDAY. WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER...IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S WITH MID TO UPPER 40S MONDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE AREAS WITH CHANCES
WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL DECREASE MONDAY AFTER THE
FRONT AS SOME DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE MAIN FRONT IN FROM THE
NORTH...BEFORE A GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP OCCURS.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
50S...WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS NOT DECREASING THAT MUCH...JUST A
FEW DEGREES AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CHANCES OCCUR AND THE
COLDER AIR QUICKLY MODIFIES. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID
LEVEL LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND
RAINY CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN THE THURSDAY FRONT BEING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND...WITHOUT
ANYTHING TO THE WEST...A MUCH DRIER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATER IN
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MORE MODERATE WINDS
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND VERY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUNDAY
EVENING. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
VERY ROUGH BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL HANG ON THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE OFFSHORE LOW...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST BEYOND THE LOCALLY
FORECASTED MARINE ZONES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59



000
FXUS64 KHGX 010541
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. SUSPECT CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT 07-08Z TONIGHT. CIGS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS RAIN
MOVES OUT AND CEILINGS BEGIN TO LIFT BUT COULD VERY WELL LOWER
SINCE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WARM FRONT
HAS PUSHED A BIT INLAND FROM LATEST SFC ANALYSIS FROM MAINLY C TX
BACK TOWARDS GLS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LOW CIGS EXIST...WHILE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY CEILINGS MAY LIFT AND SCT OUT TO VFR.
QUESTION WILL BE IF FOG FILLS IN WHERE CEILINGS LIFT. ESE WINDS
MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. SHOULD HAVE A LULL IN PRECIP
UNTIL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. FRONT HAS REACHED THE TX
PANHANDLE AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND HOUSTON
TERMINALS AROUND 23-00Z MON. THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND 00-03Z MON.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF SE TEXAS AT 9 PM. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON RAINFALL COVERAGE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
AREA RADAR ARE SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TX ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS HOLD THE NEXT 6 HRS AND AS RAIN
DEVELOPS THINK MOST TERMINALS WILL HIT IFR. RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT 08Z-10Z WITH CIGS BACK TO MVFR LEVELS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN
RAIN FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SE
TO SW. RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE GOOD WITH THIS TIMING. COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND THEN REACH HOUSTON
TERMINALS AROUND 00Z MON. MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE WITH FROPA.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  68  35  50  36 /  50  60  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  72  38  52  37 /  50  70  20   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  67  41  51  43 /  40  50  30   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KMAF 010541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1141 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Lower ceilings and visibilities are moving back over the area and
will continue decreasing through the night.  Areas on the edge of
the cloud cover are starting to develop fog.  Winds will remain
light overnight and shift to the west by 12z.  A cold front with
elevated north to northeast winds will move through the area between
15z and 18z.  Ceilings and visibilities are expected to begin to
improve a little around 18z and maybe reach VFR around 21z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low nrn MX/Srn AZ with a couple of
discernible shrtwv trof/s in the sw flow aloft. IR satellite shows
that the colder cloud tops assocd with morning precip shield
continues to move ne. As such the chance for widespread precip has
decreased, however with said shrtwv trof/s there is still some
potential for transitory -SHRA/-TSRA for remainder of this PM and
Sun PM across the Lower Trans Pecos/BB region with the mid level
cold pool there. Meanwhile a cold front will move thru the area
Sun, passing thru areas n of I-20 before 18Z. 85h temps of 3-5C
suggest highs of 50-55 in most areas. Post-frontal breezy winds of
20g30mph can be expected. Drier air and lighter winds Mon will be
a good set up for a cold morning with a hard freeze expected. Surface
pressure falls and lee troffing Mon/Tue will result in a warming
trend, 60s by Tues. Wed a cold front is moving s thru the plains
and may just hold off to the n thru peak heating and highs will be
well into the 60s and even M70s in some areas of Trans Pecos/wrn
PB as downslope winds squeeze out a few additional degrees. Breezy
to windy in wake of front Wed night with highs in the 40s Thur PM
and noticeably warmer Fri/Sat.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 010541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1141 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Lower ceilings and visibilities are moving back over the area and
will continue decreasing through the night.  Areas on the edge of
the cloud cover are starting to develop fog.  Winds will remain
light overnight and shift to the west by 12z.  A cold front with
elevated north to northeast winds will move through the area between
15z and 18z.  Ceilings and visibilities are expected to begin to
improve a little around 18z and maybe reach VFR around 21z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low nrn MX/Srn AZ with a couple of
discernible shrtwv trof/s in the sw flow aloft. IR satellite shows
that the colder cloud tops assocd with morning precip shield
continues to move ne. As such the chance for widespread precip has
decreased, however with said shrtwv trof/s there is still some
potential for transitory -SHRA/-TSRA for remainder of this PM and
Sun PM across the Lower Trans Pecos/BB region with the mid level
cold pool there. Meanwhile a cold front will move thru the area
Sun, passing thru areas n of I-20 before 18Z. 85h temps of 3-5C
suggest highs of 50-55 in most areas. Post-frontal breezy winds of
20g30mph can be expected. Drier air and lighter winds Mon will be
a good set up for a cold morning with a hard freeze expected. Surface
pressure falls and lee troffing Mon/Tue will result in a warming
trend, 60s by Tues. Wed a cold front is moving s thru the plains
and may just hold off to the n thru peak heating and highs will be
well into the 60s and even M70s in some areas of Trans Pecos/wrn
PB as downslope winds squeeze out a few additional degrees. Breezy
to windy in wake of front Wed night with highs in the 40s Thur PM
and noticeably warmer Fri/Sat.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KHGX 010541
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. SUSPECT CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT 07-08Z TONIGHT. CIGS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS RAIN
MOVES OUT AND CEILINGS BEGIN TO LIFT BUT COULD VERY WELL LOWER
SINCE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WARM FRONT
HAS PUSHED A BIT INLAND FROM LATEST SFC ANALYSIS FROM MAINLY C TX
BACK TOWARDS GLS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LOW CIGS EXIST...WHILE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY CEILINGS MAY LIFT AND SCT OUT TO VFR.
QUESTION WILL BE IF FOG FILLS IN WHERE CEILINGS LIFT. ESE WINDS
MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. SHOULD HAVE A LULL IN PRECIP
UNTIL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. FRONT HAS REACHED THE TX
PANHANDLE AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND HOUSTON
TERMINALS AROUND 23-00Z MON. THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND 00-03Z MON.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF SE TEXAS AT 9 PM. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON RAINFALL COVERAGE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
AREA RADAR ARE SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TX ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS HOLD THE NEXT 6 HRS AND AS RAIN
DEVELOPS THINK MOST TERMINALS WILL HIT IFR. RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT 08Z-10Z WITH CIGS BACK TO MVFR LEVELS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN
RAIN FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SE
TO SW. RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE GOOD WITH THIS TIMING. COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND THEN REACH HOUSTON
TERMINALS AROUND 00Z MON. MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE WITH FROPA.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  68  35  50  36 /  50  60  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  72  38  52  37 /  50  70  20   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  67  41  51  43 /  40  50  30   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



000
FXUS64 KMAF 010541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1141 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Lower ceilings and visibilities are moving back over the area and
will continue decreasing through the night.  Areas on the edge of
the cloud cover are starting to develop fog.  Winds will remain
light overnight and shift to the west by 12z.  A cold front with
elevated north to northeast winds will move through the area between
15z and 18z.  Ceilings and visibilities are expected to begin to
improve a little around 18z and maybe reach VFR around 21z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low nrn MX/Srn AZ with a couple of
discernible shrtwv trof/s in the sw flow aloft. IR satellite shows
that the colder cloud tops assocd with morning precip shield
continues to move ne. As such the chance for widespread precip has
decreased, however with said shrtwv trof/s there is still some
potential for transitory -SHRA/-TSRA for remainder of this PM and
Sun PM across the Lower Trans Pecos/BB region with the mid level
cold pool there. Meanwhile a cold front will move thru the area
Sun, passing thru areas n of I-20 before 18Z. 85h temps of 3-5C
suggest highs of 50-55 in most areas. Post-frontal breezy winds of
20g30mph can be expected. Drier air and lighter winds Mon will be
a good set up for a cold morning with a hard freeze expected. Surface
pressure falls and lee troffing Mon/Tue will result in a warming
trend, 60s by Tues. Wed a cold front is moving s thru the plains
and may just hold off to the n thru peak heating and highs will be
well into the 60s and even M70s in some areas of Trans Pecos/wrn
PB as downslope winds squeeze out a few additional degrees. Breezy
to windy in wake of front Wed night with highs in the 40s Thur PM
and noticeably warmer Fri/Sat.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KHGX 010541
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. SUSPECT CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT 07-08Z TONIGHT. CIGS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS RAIN
MOVES OUT AND CEILINGS BEGIN TO LIFT BUT COULD VERY WELL LOWER
SINCE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WARM FRONT
HAS PUSHED A BIT INLAND FROM LATEST SFC ANALYSIS FROM MAINLY C TX
BACK TOWARDS GLS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LOW CIGS EXIST...WHILE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY CEILINGS MAY LIFT AND SCT OUT TO VFR.
QUESTION WILL BE IF FOG FILLS IN WHERE CEILINGS LIFT. ESE WINDS
MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. SHOULD HAVE A LULL IN PRECIP
UNTIL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. FRONT HAS REACHED THE TX
PANHANDLE AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND HOUSTON
TERMINALS AROUND 23-00Z MON. THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND 00-03Z MON.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF SE TEXAS AT 9 PM. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON RAINFALL COVERAGE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
AREA RADAR ARE SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TX ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS HOLD THE NEXT 6 HRS AND AS RAIN
DEVELOPS THINK MOST TERMINALS WILL HIT IFR. RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT 08Z-10Z WITH CIGS BACK TO MVFR LEVELS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN
RAIN FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SE
TO SW. RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE GOOD WITH THIS TIMING. COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND THEN REACH HOUSTON
TERMINALS AROUND 00Z MON. MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE WITH FROPA.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  68  35  50  36 /  50  60  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  72  38  52  37 /  50  70  20   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  67  41  51  43 /  40  50  30   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



000
FXUS64 KBRO 010541 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1141 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 6 KFT AND HIGHER WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS S TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE N TO NE PRODUCING BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS THE BANDS MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BUT WILL REMAIN LOWER END VFR IMPROVING WITH HIGH CIGS
INTO SUNDAY. SOME MODELS INDICATE IFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE THEN
QUICKLY RISING BACK TO VFR MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS IS NOT
INDICATED IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE WITH THE LOW PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME. CHANCE OF RAIN DIMINISHES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY
EVENING BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE
20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WHEN MORE
PRECISE TIMING IS AVAILABLE AFTER INTERROGATION OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MVFR THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 15Z WITH
LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT...STRONG FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. BROADLY DIFFLUENT JET ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THAT LOW IS
LEADING TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MODESTLY STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES OVER THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND THAT IS INTERACTING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA TO PRODUCE A RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
MEXICO ARE HELPING GENERATE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO.

TONIGHT...
SUBTLE RIPPLES IN SOUTHWESTERLY JET FLOW OVER MEXICO ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AMID BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL WORK WITH STEEPENING
UPPER LAPSE RATES TO HELP SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW OVERALL BUT A
HEAVIER SHOWER COULD BRING A QUICK 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.

SUNDAY...
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WHICH MAY WORK WITH A FEW BREAKS IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO PRODUCE RELATIVELY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 80 DEGREES AND KEPT RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO NIL
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SFC-850 DRYING THAT LAYER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
WINDS SPEEDS WILL BACK OFF AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE
EVENING AND PAINTED AN AREA OF FOG STARTING EARLY IN THE EVENING
NEAR THE COAST AND IN PARTS OF THE METRO AREA. THE STRONG FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH IN THE LATE EVENING AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT WIND WILL VERY LIKELY BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT FROM
THIS FRONT ASIDE FROM THE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A VERY STRONG GRADIENT PUSHING ACROSS WITH THE FRONT AND
STRONG SFC- 850MB COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN 40 TO 45
KNOT WINDS IN THAT LAYER MAKING GUSTS STRONGER. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS ON LAND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...AROUND
25 MPH NEAR THE COAST AND THEN STRONGER OVER THE WATER. BAY AND
NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOW 60S...
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE REPORT OF BUOY 42020 SO EXPECTING OBSERVED
WIND SPEEDS ON ALL WATERS TO BE CLOSER THAN PREVIOUS FRONTS THAT
HAD VERY COLD NEARSHORE WATER PRESENT. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28
TO 32 KNOTS AND GUSTS PUSHING 35 TO 40 LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR ALL WATERS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES
FOR PART OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SUPPORTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL HANG BACK AND BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTING AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO THE FIRST TWO TO
THREE DAYS OF THE WEEK...REPLEAT WITH LOW OVERCAST SKIES...LIGHT
RAIN...AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING ON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST BY DAWN MONDAY. WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER...IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S WITH MID TO UPPER 40S MONDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE AREAS WITH CHANCES
WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL DECREASE MONDAY AFTER THE
FRONT AS SOME DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE MAIN FRONT IN FROM THE
NORTH...BEFORE A GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP OCCURS.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
50S...WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS NOT DECREASING THAT MUCH...JUST A
FEW DEGREES AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CHANCES OCCUR AND THE
COLDER AIR QUICKLY MODIFIES. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID
LEVEL LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND
RAINY CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN THE THURSDAY FRONT BEING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND...WITHOUT
ANYTHING TO THE WEST...A MUCH DRIER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATER IN
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MORE MODERATE WINDS
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND VERY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUNDAY
EVENING. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
VERY ROUGH BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL HANG ON THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE OFFSHORE LOW...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST BEYOND THE LOCALLY
FORECASTED MARINE ZONES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010541
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. SUSPECT CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT 07-08Z TONIGHT. CIGS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS RAIN
MOVES OUT AND CEILINGS BEGIN TO LIFT BUT COULD VERY WELL LOWER
SINCE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WARM FRONT
HAS PUSHED A BIT INLAND FROM LATEST SFC ANALYSIS FROM MAINLY C TX
BACK TOWARDS GLS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LOW CIGS EXIST...WHILE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY CEILINGS MAY LIFT AND SCT OUT TO VFR.
QUESTION WILL BE IF FOG FILLS IN WHERE CEILINGS LIFT. ESE WINDS
MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. SHOULD HAVE A LULL IN PRECIP
UNTIL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. FRONT HAS REACHED THE TX
PANHANDLE AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND HOUSTON
TERMINALS AROUND 23-00Z MON. THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND 00-03Z MON.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF SE TEXAS AT 9 PM. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON RAINFALL COVERAGE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
AREA RADAR ARE SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TX ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS HOLD THE NEXT 6 HRS AND AS RAIN
DEVELOPS THINK MOST TERMINALS WILL HIT IFR. RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT 08Z-10Z WITH CIGS BACK TO MVFR LEVELS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN
RAIN FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SE
TO SW. RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE GOOD WITH THIS TIMING. COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND THEN REACH HOUSTON
TERMINALS AROUND 00Z MON. MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE WITH FROPA.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  68  35  50  36 /  50  60  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  72  38  52  37 /  50  70  20   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  67  41  51  43 /  40  50  30   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010541
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. SUSPECT CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT 07-08Z TONIGHT. CIGS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS RAIN
MOVES OUT AND CEILINGS BEGIN TO LIFT BUT COULD VERY WELL LOWER
SINCE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WARM FRONT
HAS PUSHED A BIT INLAND FROM LATEST SFC ANALYSIS FROM MAINLY C TX
BACK TOWARDS GLS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LOW CIGS EXIST...WHILE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY CEILINGS MAY LIFT AND SCT OUT TO VFR.
QUESTION WILL BE IF FOG FILLS IN WHERE CEILINGS LIFT. ESE WINDS
MAY BE TOO MUCH FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. SHOULD HAVE A LULL IN PRECIP
UNTIL COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. FRONT HAS REACHED THE TX
PANHANDLE AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND HOUSTON
TERMINALS AROUND 23-00Z MON. THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND 00-03Z MON.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF SE TEXAS AT 9 PM. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON RAINFALL COVERAGE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
AREA RADAR ARE SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TX ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS HOLD THE NEXT 6 HRS AND AS RAIN
DEVELOPS THINK MOST TERMINALS WILL HIT IFR. RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT 08Z-10Z WITH CIGS BACK TO MVFR LEVELS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN
RAIN FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SE
TO SW. RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE GOOD WITH THIS TIMING. COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND THEN REACH HOUSTON
TERMINALS AROUND 00Z MON. MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE WITH FROPA.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  68  35  50  36 /  50  60  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  72  38  52  37 /  50  70  20   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  67  41  51  43 /  40  50  30   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



000
FXUS64 KBRO 010541 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1141 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 6 KFT AND HIGHER WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS S TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE N TO NE PRODUCING BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS THE BANDS MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BUT WILL REMAIN LOWER END VFR IMPROVING WITH HIGH CIGS
INTO SUNDAY. SOME MODELS INDICATE IFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE THEN
QUICKLY RISING BACK TO VFR MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS IS NOT
INDICATED IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE WITH THE LOW PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME. CHANCE OF RAIN DIMINISHES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY
EVENING BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE
20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WHEN MORE
PRECISE TIMING IS AVAILABLE AFTER INTERROGATION OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MVFR THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 15Z WITH
LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT...STRONG FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. BROADLY DIFFLUENT JET ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THAT LOW IS
LEADING TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MODESTLY STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES OVER THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND THAT IS INTERACTING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA TO PRODUCE A RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
MEXICO ARE HELPING GENERATE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO.

TONIGHT...
SUBTLE RIPPLES IN SOUTHWESTERLY JET FLOW OVER MEXICO ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AMID BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL WORK WITH STEEPENING
UPPER LAPSE RATES TO HELP SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW OVERALL BUT A
HEAVIER SHOWER COULD BRING A QUICK 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.

SUNDAY...
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WHICH MAY WORK WITH A FEW BREAKS IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO PRODUCE RELATIVELY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 80 DEGREES AND KEPT RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO NIL
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SFC-850 DRYING THAT LAYER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
WINDS SPEEDS WILL BACK OFF AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE
EVENING AND PAINTED AN AREA OF FOG STARTING EARLY IN THE EVENING
NEAR THE COAST AND IN PARTS OF THE METRO AREA. THE STRONG FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH IN THE LATE EVENING AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT WIND WILL VERY LIKELY BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT FROM
THIS FRONT ASIDE FROM THE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A VERY STRONG GRADIENT PUSHING ACROSS WITH THE FRONT AND
STRONG SFC- 850MB COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN 40 TO 45
KNOT WINDS IN THAT LAYER MAKING GUSTS STRONGER. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS ON LAND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...AROUND
25 MPH NEAR THE COAST AND THEN STRONGER OVER THE WATER. BAY AND
NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOW 60S...
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE REPORT OF BUOY 42020 SO EXPECTING OBSERVED
WIND SPEEDS ON ALL WATERS TO BE CLOSER THAN PREVIOUS FRONTS THAT
HAD VERY COLD NEARSHORE WATER PRESENT. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28
TO 32 KNOTS AND GUSTS PUSHING 35 TO 40 LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR ALL WATERS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES
FOR PART OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SUPPORTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL HANG BACK AND BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTING AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO THE FIRST TWO TO
THREE DAYS OF THE WEEK...REPLEAT WITH LOW OVERCAST SKIES...LIGHT
RAIN...AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING ON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST BY DAWN MONDAY. WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER...IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S WITH MID TO UPPER 40S MONDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE AREAS WITH CHANCES
WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL DECREASE MONDAY AFTER THE
FRONT AS SOME DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE MAIN FRONT IN FROM THE
NORTH...BEFORE A GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP OCCURS.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
50S...WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS NOT DECREASING THAT MUCH...JUST A
FEW DEGREES AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CHANCES OCCUR AND THE
COLDER AIR QUICKLY MODIFIES. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID
LEVEL LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND
RAINY CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN THE THURSDAY FRONT BEING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND...WITHOUT
ANYTHING TO THE WEST...A MUCH DRIER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATER IN
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MORE MODERATE WINDS
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND VERY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUNDAY
EVENING. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
VERY ROUGH BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL HANG ON THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE OFFSHORE LOW...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST BEYOND THE LOCALLY
FORECASTED MARINE ZONES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59




000
FXUS64 KBRO 010541 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1141 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 6 KFT AND HIGHER WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS S TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE N TO NE PRODUCING BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS THE BANDS MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BUT WILL REMAIN LOWER END VFR IMPROVING WITH HIGH CIGS
INTO SUNDAY. SOME MODELS INDICATE IFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE THEN
QUICKLY RISING BACK TO VFR MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS IS NOT
INDICATED IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE WITH THE LOW PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME. CHANCE OF RAIN DIMINISHES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY
EVENING BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE
20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WHEN MORE
PRECISE TIMING IS AVAILABLE AFTER INTERROGATION OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MVFR THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 15Z WITH
LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT...STRONG FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. BROADLY DIFFLUENT JET ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THAT LOW IS
LEADING TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MODESTLY STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES OVER THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND THAT IS INTERACTING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA TO PRODUCE A RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
MEXICO ARE HELPING GENERATE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO.

TONIGHT...
SUBTLE RIPPLES IN SOUTHWESTERLY JET FLOW OVER MEXICO ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AMID BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL WORK WITH STEEPENING
UPPER LAPSE RATES TO HELP SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW OVERALL BUT A
HEAVIER SHOWER COULD BRING A QUICK 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.

SUNDAY...
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WHICH MAY WORK WITH A FEW BREAKS IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO PRODUCE RELATIVELY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 80 DEGREES AND KEPT RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO NIL
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SFC-850 DRYING THAT LAYER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
WINDS SPEEDS WILL BACK OFF AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE
EVENING AND PAINTED AN AREA OF FOG STARTING EARLY IN THE EVENING
NEAR THE COAST AND IN PARTS OF THE METRO AREA. THE STRONG FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH IN THE LATE EVENING AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT WIND WILL VERY LIKELY BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT FROM
THIS FRONT ASIDE FROM THE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A VERY STRONG GRADIENT PUSHING ACROSS WITH THE FRONT AND
STRONG SFC- 850MB COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN 40 TO 45
KNOT WINDS IN THAT LAYER MAKING GUSTS STRONGER. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS ON LAND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...AROUND
25 MPH NEAR THE COAST AND THEN STRONGER OVER THE WATER. BAY AND
NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOW 60S...
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE REPORT OF BUOY 42020 SO EXPECTING OBSERVED
WIND SPEEDS ON ALL WATERS TO BE CLOSER THAN PREVIOUS FRONTS THAT
HAD VERY COLD NEARSHORE WATER PRESENT. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28
TO 32 KNOTS AND GUSTS PUSHING 35 TO 40 LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR ALL WATERS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES
FOR PART OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SUPPORTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL HANG BACK AND BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTING AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO THE FIRST TWO TO
THREE DAYS OF THE WEEK...REPLEAT WITH LOW OVERCAST SKIES...LIGHT
RAIN...AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING ON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST BY DAWN MONDAY. WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER...IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S WITH MID TO UPPER 40S MONDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE AREAS WITH CHANCES
WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL DECREASE MONDAY AFTER THE
FRONT AS SOME DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE MAIN FRONT IN FROM THE
NORTH...BEFORE A GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP OCCURS.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
50S...WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS NOT DECREASING THAT MUCH...JUST A
FEW DEGREES AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CHANCES OCCUR AND THE
COLDER AIR QUICKLY MODIFIES. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID
LEVEL LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND
RAINY CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN THE THURSDAY FRONT BEING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND...WITHOUT
ANYTHING TO THE WEST...A MUCH DRIER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATER IN
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MORE MODERATE WINDS
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND VERY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUNDAY
EVENING. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
VERY ROUGH BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL HANG ON THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE OFFSHORE LOW...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST BEYOND THE LOCALLY
FORECASTED MARINE ZONES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59




000
FXUS64 KBRO 010541 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1141 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 6 KFT AND HIGHER WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS S TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE N TO NE PRODUCING BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS THE BANDS MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BUT WILL REMAIN LOWER END VFR IMPROVING WITH HIGH CIGS
INTO SUNDAY. SOME MODELS INDICATE IFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE THEN
QUICKLY RISING BACK TO VFR MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS IS NOT
INDICATED IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE WITH THE LOW PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME. CHANCE OF RAIN DIMINISHES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY
EVENING BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE
20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WHEN MORE
PRECISE TIMING IS AVAILABLE AFTER INTERROGATION OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MVFR THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 15Z WITH
LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT...STRONG FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. BROADLY DIFFLUENT JET ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THAT LOW IS
LEADING TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MODESTLY STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES OVER THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND THAT IS INTERACTING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA TO PRODUCE A RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
MEXICO ARE HELPING GENERATE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO.

TONIGHT...
SUBTLE RIPPLES IN SOUTHWESTERLY JET FLOW OVER MEXICO ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AMID BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL WORK WITH STEEPENING
UPPER LAPSE RATES TO HELP SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW OVERALL BUT A
HEAVIER SHOWER COULD BRING A QUICK 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.

SUNDAY...
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WHICH MAY WORK WITH A FEW BREAKS IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO PRODUCE RELATIVELY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 80 DEGREES AND KEPT RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO NIL
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SFC-850 DRYING THAT LAYER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
WINDS SPEEDS WILL BACK OFF AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE
EVENING AND PAINTED AN AREA OF FOG STARTING EARLY IN THE EVENING
NEAR THE COAST AND IN PARTS OF THE METRO AREA. THE STRONG FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH IN THE LATE EVENING AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT WIND WILL VERY LIKELY BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT FROM
THIS FRONT ASIDE FROM THE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A VERY STRONG GRADIENT PUSHING ACROSS WITH THE FRONT AND
STRONG SFC- 850MB COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN 40 TO 45
KNOT WINDS IN THAT LAYER MAKING GUSTS STRONGER. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS ON LAND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...AROUND
25 MPH NEAR THE COAST AND THEN STRONGER OVER THE WATER. BAY AND
NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOW 60S...
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE REPORT OF BUOY 42020 SO EXPECTING OBSERVED
WIND SPEEDS ON ALL WATERS TO BE CLOSER THAN PREVIOUS FRONTS THAT
HAD VERY COLD NEARSHORE WATER PRESENT. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28
TO 32 KNOTS AND GUSTS PUSHING 35 TO 40 LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR ALL WATERS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES
FOR PART OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SUPPORTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL HANG BACK AND BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTING AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO THE FIRST TWO TO
THREE DAYS OF THE WEEK...REPLEAT WITH LOW OVERCAST SKIES...LIGHT
RAIN...AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING ON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST BY DAWN MONDAY. WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER...IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S WITH MID TO UPPER 40S MONDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE AREAS WITH CHANCES
WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL DECREASE MONDAY AFTER THE
FRONT AS SOME DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE MAIN FRONT IN FROM THE
NORTH...BEFORE A GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP OCCURS.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
50S...WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS NOT DECREASING THAT MUCH...JUST A
FEW DEGREES AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CHANCES OCCUR AND THE
COLDER AIR QUICKLY MODIFIES. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID
LEVEL LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND
RAINY CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN THE THURSDAY FRONT BEING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND...WITHOUT
ANYTHING TO THE WEST...A MUCH DRIER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATER IN
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MORE MODERATE WINDS
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND VERY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUNDAY
EVENING. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
VERY ROUGH BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL HANG ON THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE OFFSHORE LOW...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST BEYOND THE LOCALLY
FORECASTED MARINE ZONES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59




000
FXUS64 KBRO 010541 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1141 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 6 KFT AND HIGHER WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS S TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE N TO NE PRODUCING BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS THE BANDS MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BUT WILL REMAIN LOWER END VFR IMPROVING WITH HIGH CIGS
INTO SUNDAY. SOME MODELS INDICATE IFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE THEN
QUICKLY RISING BACK TO VFR MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS IS NOT
INDICATED IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE WITH THE LOW PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME. CHANCE OF RAIN DIMINISHES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY
EVENING BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE
20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WHEN MORE
PRECISE TIMING IS AVAILABLE AFTER INTERROGATION OF THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MVFR THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 15Z WITH
LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT...STRONG FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. BROADLY DIFFLUENT JET ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THAT LOW IS
LEADING TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MODESTLY STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES OVER THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND THAT IS INTERACTING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA TO PRODUCE A RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
MEXICO ARE HELPING GENERATE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO.

TONIGHT...
SUBTLE RIPPLES IN SOUTHWESTERLY JET FLOW OVER MEXICO ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AMID BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL WORK WITH STEEPENING
UPPER LAPSE RATES TO HELP SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW OVERALL BUT A
HEAVIER SHOWER COULD BRING A QUICK 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.

SUNDAY...
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WHICH MAY WORK WITH A FEW BREAKS IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO PRODUCE RELATIVELY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 80 DEGREES AND KEPT RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO NIL
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SFC-850 DRYING THAT LAYER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
WINDS SPEEDS WILL BACK OFF AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE
EVENING AND PAINTED AN AREA OF FOG STARTING EARLY IN THE EVENING
NEAR THE COAST AND IN PARTS OF THE METRO AREA. THE STRONG FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH IN THE LATE EVENING AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT WIND WILL VERY LIKELY BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT FROM
THIS FRONT ASIDE FROM THE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A VERY STRONG GRADIENT PUSHING ACROSS WITH THE FRONT AND
STRONG SFC- 850MB COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN 40 TO 45
KNOT WINDS IN THAT LAYER MAKING GUSTS STRONGER. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS ON LAND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...AROUND
25 MPH NEAR THE COAST AND THEN STRONGER OVER THE WATER. BAY AND
NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOW 60S...
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE REPORT OF BUOY 42020 SO EXPECTING OBSERVED
WIND SPEEDS ON ALL WATERS TO BE CLOSER THAN PREVIOUS FRONTS THAT
HAD VERY COLD NEARSHORE WATER PRESENT. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28
TO 32 KNOTS AND GUSTS PUSHING 35 TO 40 LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR ALL WATERS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES
FOR PART OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SUPPORTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL HANG BACK AND BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTING AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO THE FIRST TWO TO
THREE DAYS OF THE WEEK...REPLEAT WITH LOW OVERCAST SKIES...LIGHT
RAIN...AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING ON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST BY DAWN MONDAY. WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER...IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S WITH MID TO UPPER 40S MONDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE AREAS WITH CHANCES
WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL DECREASE MONDAY AFTER THE
FRONT AS SOME DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE MAIN FRONT IN FROM THE
NORTH...BEFORE A GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP OCCURS.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
50S...WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS NOT DECREASING THAT MUCH...JUST A
FEW DEGREES AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CHANCES OCCUR AND THE
COLDER AIR QUICKLY MODIFIES. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID
LEVEL LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND
RAINY CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN THE THURSDAY FRONT BEING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND...WITHOUT
ANYTHING TO THE WEST...A MUCH DRIER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATER IN
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MORE MODERATE WINDS
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND VERY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUNDAY
EVENING. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
VERY ROUGH BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL HANG ON THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE OFFSHORE LOW...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST BEYOND THE LOCALLY
FORECASTED MARINE ZONES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59




000
FXUS64 KMAF 010541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1141 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Lower ceilings and visibilities are moving back over the area and
will continue decreasing through the night.  Areas on the edge of
the cloud cover are starting to develop fog.  Winds will remain
light overnight and shift to the west by 12z.  A cold front with
elevated north to northeast winds will move through the area between
15z and 18z.  Ceilings and visibilities are expected to begin to
improve a little around 18z and maybe reach VFR around 21z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low nrn MX/Srn AZ with a couple of
discernible shrtwv trof/s in the sw flow aloft. IR satellite shows
that the colder cloud tops assocd with morning precip shield
continues to move ne. As such the chance for widespread precip has
decreased, however with said shrtwv trof/s there is still some
potential for transitory -SHRA/-TSRA for remainder of this PM and
Sun PM across the Lower Trans Pecos/BB region with the mid level
cold pool there. Meanwhile a cold front will move thru the area
Sun, passing thru areas n of I-20 before 18Z. 85h temps of 3-5C
suggest highs of 50-55 in most areas. Post-frontal breezy winds of
20g30mph can be expected. Drier air and lighter winds Mon will be
a good set up for a cold morning with a hard freeze expected. Surface
pressure falls and lee troffing Mon/Tue will result in a warming
trend, 60s by Tues. Wed a cold front is moving s thru the plains
and may just hold off to the n thru peak heating and highs will be
well into the 60s and even M70s in some areas of Trans Pecos/wrn
PB as downslope winds squeeze out a few additional degrees. Breezy
to windy in wake of front Wed night with highs in the 40s Thur PM
and noticeably warmer Fri/Sat.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 010541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1141 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Lower ceilings and visibilities are moving back over the area and
will continue decreasing through the night.  Areas on the edge of
the cloud cover are starting to develop fog.  Winds will remain
light overnight and shift to the west by 12z.  A cold front with
elevated north to northeast winds will move through the area between
15z and 18z.  Ceilings and visibilities are expected to begin to
improve a little around 18z and maybe reach VFR around 21z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low nrn MX/Srn AZ with a couple of
discernible shrtwv trof/s in the sw flow aloft. IR satellite shows
that the colder cloud tops assocd with morning precip shield
continues to move ne. As such the chance for widespread precip has
decreased, however with said shrtwv trof/s there is still some
potential for transitory -SHRA/-TSRA for remainder of this PM and
Sun PM across the Lower Trans Pecos/BB region with the mid level
cold pool there. Meanwhile a cold front will move thru the area
Sun, passing thru areas n of I-20 before 18Z. 85h temps of 3-5C
suggest highs of 50-55 in most areas. Post-frontal breezy winds of
20g30mph can be expected. Drier air and lighter winds Mon will be
a good set up for a cold morning with a hard freeze expected. Surface
pressure falls and lee troffing Mon/Tue will result in a warming
trend, 60s by Tues. Wed a cold front is moving s thru the plains
and may just hold off to the n thru peak heating and highs will be
well into the 60s and even M70s in some areas of Trans Pecos/wrn
PB as downslope winds squeeze out a few additional degrees. Breezy
to windy in wake of front Wed night with highs in the 40s Thur PM
and noticeably warmer Fri/Sat.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 010541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1141 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Lower ceilings and visibilities are moving back over the area and
will continue decreasing through the night.  Areas on the edge of
the cloud cover are starting to develop fog.  Winds will remain
light overnight and shift to the west by 12z.  A cold front with
elevated north to northeast winds will move through the area between
15z and 18z.  Ceilings and visibilities are expected to begin to
improve a little around 18z and maybe reach VFR around 21z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low nrn MX/Srn AZ with a couple of
discernible shrtwv trof/s in the sw flow aloft. IR satellite shows
that the colder cloud tops assocd with morning precip shield
continues to move ne. As such the chance for widespread precip has
decreased, however with said shrtwv trof/s there is still some
potential for transitory -SHRA/-TSRA for remainder of this PM and
Sun PM across the Lower Trans Pecos/BB region with the mid level
cold pool there. Meanwhile a cold front will move thru the area
Sun, passing thru areas n of I-20 before 18Z. 85h temps of 3-5C
suggest highs of 50-55 in most areas. Post-frontal breezy winds of
20g30mph can be expected. Drier air and lighter winds Mon will be
a good set up for a cold morning with a hard freeze expected. Surface
pressure falls and lee troffing Mon/Tue will result in a warming
trend, 60s by Tues. Wed a cold front is moving s thru the plains
and may just hold off to the n thru peak heating and highs will be
well into the 60s and even M70s in some areas of Trans Pecos/wrn
PB as downslope winds squeeze out a few additional degrees. Breezy
to windy in wake of front Wed night with highs in the 40s Thur PM
and noticeably warmer Fri/Sat.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 010541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1141 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Lower ceilings and visibilities are moving back over the area and
will continue decreasing through the night.  Areas on the edge of
the cloud cover are starting to develop fog.  Winds will remain
light overnight and shift to the west by 12z.  A cold front with
elevated north to northeast winds will move through the area between
15z and 18z.  Ceilings and visibilities are expected to begin to
improve a little around 18z and maybe reach VFR around 21z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low nrn MX/Srn AZ with a couple of
discernible shrtwv trof/s in the sw flow aloft. IR satellite shows
that the colder cloud tops assocd with morning precip shield
continues to move ne. As such the chance for widespread precip has
decreased, however with said shrtwv trof/s there is still some
potential for transitory -SHRA/-TSRA for remainder of this PM and
Sun PM across the Lower Trans Pecos/BB region with the mid level
cold pool there. Meanwhile a cold front will move thru the area
Sun, passing thru areas n of I-20 before 18Z. 85h temps of 3-5C
suggest highs of 50-55 in most areas. Post-frontal breezy winds of
20g30mph can be expected. Drier air and lighter winds Mon will be
a good set up for a cold morning with a hard freeze expected. Surface
pressure falls and lee troffing Mon/Tue will result in a warming
trend, 60s by Tues. Wed a cold front is moving s thru the plains
and may just hold off to the n thru peak heating and highs will be
well into the 60s and even M70s in some areas of Trans Pecos/wrn
PB as downslope winds squeeze out a few additional degrees. Breezy
to windy in wake of front Wed night with highs in the 40s Thur PM
and noticeably warmer Fri/Sat.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KFWD 010520
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1120 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METROPLEX THROUGH 8Z AND THEN RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH. WILL
CARRY JUST A MENTION OF VCSH FROM 8-12Z. GENERALLY IFR CIGS HAVE
SETTLED IN OVER THE TAF SITES NOW AND WHILE LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY AT WACO. VEERING
WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SHOULD HELP KEEP VSBY ABOVE IFR
AND ALSO MAY CAUSE CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR AROUND SUNRISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED IN METROPLEX AROUND 15Z WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES. MVFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AS N/NW WINDS INCREASE TO 20G30KT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND FARTHER AWAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES THE FARTHER NORTH YOU
GO. WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION WHERE MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED /THE 40 POPS WERE
KEPT IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME OF THE SHOWERS OVER WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS APPROACHING AFTER MIDNIGHT/. THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ALSO
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE OVERNIGHT
GRID PERIODS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY CLIMB AS WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED SUNDAY.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND CA/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND TONIGHT...THEN STALL
AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE RACING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AS NOTED BY THE
8-10 DEG/C 850MB DEW POINTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVING NORTHWARD.
A GOOD MID LEVEL FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
700-500MB IN ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT NOTED EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER WEST TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE DRY SLOT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER
SOUTH OF I-20...BUT IF THE DRY SLOT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED... THEN THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED OVERNIGHT.
LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD BE THE ONLY CONCERN WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVELS.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BRINGING BRISK NORTH WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD WESTERN MEXICO IN WAKE
OF THE EXITING CENTRAL U.S SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
END WELL BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AREAS MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
AND ONLY IN THE 40S AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTH WINDS READILY RETURN ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOME AND
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AND MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S EAST
TO THE 60S WEST. THE LARGE SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DOES AMPLIFY BY MID
WEEK AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND TRACK IT
EAST TOWARD SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE BROAD YET
RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CREEP AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
COOL AND DRY. ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY NOT BEING VERY RICH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE
SOUTH TEXAS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AND BRISK NORTH WINDS. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT STAY FOR LONG
AS RIDGING ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  58  30  44  35 /  90  50   0   0   0
WACO, TX              53  63  32  47  34 /  80  40   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             46  57  27  42  30 /  90  70   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            47  56  28  44  32 /  90  40   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  56  28  43  31 /  90  60   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            51  58  30  44  35 /  90  60   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           49  62  29  44  32 /  90  70   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         54  63  31  45  34 /  80  60   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            53  63  33  48  35 /  70  40  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     46  53  28  46  33 /  80  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 010520
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1120 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METROPLEX THROUGH 8Z AND THEN RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH. WILL
CARRY JUST A MENTION OF VCSH FROM 8-12Z. GENERALLY IFR CIGS HAVE
SETTLED IN OVER THE TAF SITES NOW AND WHILE LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY AT WACO. VEERING
WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SHOULD HELP KEEP VSBY ABOVE IFR
AND ALSO MAY CAUSE CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR AROUND SUNRISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED IN METROPLEX AROUND 15Z WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES. MVFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AS N/NW WINDS INCREASE TO 20G30KT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND FARTHER AWAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES THE FARTHER NORTH YOU
GO. WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION WHERE MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED /THE 40 POPS WERE
KEPT IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME OF THE SHOWERS OVER WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS APPROACHING AFTER MIDNIGHT/. THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ALSO
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE OVERNIGHT
GRID PERIODS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY CLIMB AS WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED SUNDAY.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND CA/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND TONIGHT...THEN STALL
AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE RACING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AS NOTED BY THE
8-10 DEG/C 850MB DEW POINTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVING NORTHWARD.
A GOOD MID LEVEL FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
700-500MB IN ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT NOTED EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER WEST TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE DRY SLOT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER
SOUTH OF I-20...BUT IF THE DRY SLOT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED... THEN THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED OVERNIGHT.
LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD BE THE ONLY CONCERN WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVELS.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BRINGING BRISK NORTH WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD WESTERN MEXICO IN WAKE
OF THE EXITING CENTRAL U.S SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
END WELL BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AREAS MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
AND ONLY IN THE 40S AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTH WINDS READILY RETURN ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOME AND
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AND MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S EAST
TO THE 60S WEST. THE LARGE SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DOES AMPLIFY BY MID
WEEK AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND TRACK IT
EAST TOWARD SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE BROAD YET
RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CREEP AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
COOL AND DRY. ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY NOT BEING VERY RICH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE
SOUTH TEXAS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AND BRISK NORTH WINDS. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT STAY FOR LONG
AS RIDGING ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  58  30  44  35 /  90  50   0   0   0
WACO, TX              53  63  32  47  34 /  80  40   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             46  57  27  42  30 /  90  70   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            47  56  28  44  32 /  90  40   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  56  28  43  31 /  90  60   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            51  58  30  44  35 /  90  60   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           49  62  29  44  32 /  90  70   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         54  63  31  45  34 /  80  60   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            53  63  33  48  35 /  70  40  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     46  53  28  46  33 /  80  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 010520
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1120 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METROPLEX THROUGH 8Z AND THEN RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH. WILL
CARRY JUST A MENTION OF VCSH FROM 8-12Z. GENERALLY IFR CIGS HAVE
SETTLED IN OVER THE TAF SITES NOW AND WHILE LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY AT WACO. VEERING
WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SHOULD HELP KEEP VSBY ABOVE IFR
AND ALSO MAY CAUSE CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR AROUND SUNRISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED IN METROPLEX AROUND 15Z WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES. MVFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AS N/NW WINDS INCREASE TO 20G30KT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND FARTHER AWAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES THE FARTHER NORTH YOU
GO. WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION WHERE MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED /THE 40 POPS WERE
KEPT IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME OF THE SHOWERS OVER WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS APPROACHING AFTER MIDNIGHT/. THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ALSO
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE OVERNIGHT
GRID PERIODS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY CLIMB AS WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED SUNDAY.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND CA/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND TONIGHT...THEN STALL
AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE RACING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AS NOTED BY THE
8-10 DEG/C 850MB DEW POINTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVING NORTHWARD.
A GOOD MID LEVEL FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
700-500MB IN ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT NOTED EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER WEST TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE DRY SLOT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER
SOUTH OF I-20...BUT IF THE DRY SLOT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED... THEN THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED OVERNIGHT.
LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD BE THE ONLY CONCERN WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVELS.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BRINGING BRISK NORTH WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD WESTERN MEXICO IN WAKE
OF THE EXITING CENTRAL U.S SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
END WELL BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AREAS MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
AND ONLY IN THE 40S AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTH WINDS READILY RETURN ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOME AND
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AND MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S EAST
TO THE 60S WEST. THE LARGE SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DOES AMPLIFY BY MID
WEEK AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND TRACK IT
EAST TOWARD SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE BROAD YET
RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CREEP AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
COOL AND DRY. ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY NOT BEING VERY RICH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE
SOUTH TEXAS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AND BRISK NORTH WINDS. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT STAY FOR LONG
AS RIDGING ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  58  30  44  35 /  90  50   0   0   0
WACO, TX              53  63  32  47  34 /  80  40   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             46  57  27  42  30 /  90  70   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            47  56  28  44  32 /  90  40   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  56  28  43  31 /  90  60   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            51  58  30  44  35 /  90  60   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           49  62  29  44  32 /  90  70   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         54  63  31  45  34 /  80  60   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            53  63  33  48  35 /  70  40  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     46  53  28  46  33 /  80  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 010520
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1120 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METROPLEX THROUGH 8Z AND THEN RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH. WILL
CARRY JUST A MENTION OF VCSH FROM 8-12Z. GENERALLY IFR CIGS HAVE
SETTLED IN OVER THE TAF SITES NOW AND WHILE LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY AT WACO. VEERING
WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SHOULD HELP KEEP VSBY ABOVE IFR
AND ALSO MAY CAUSE CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR AROUND SUNRISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED IN METROPLEX AROUND 15Z WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES. MVFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AS N/NW WINDS INCREASE TO 20G30KT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TR.92

&&

.UPDATE...
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND FARTHER AWAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES THE FARTHER NORTH YOU
GO. WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION WHERE MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED /THE 40 POPS WERE
KEPT IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME OF THE SHOWERS OVER WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS APPROACHING AFTER MIDNIGHT/. THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ALSO
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE OVERNIGHT
GRID PERIODS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY CLIMB AS WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED SUNDAY.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND CA/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND TONIGHT...THEN STALL
AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE RACING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AS NOTED BY THE
8-10 DEG/C 850MB DEW POINTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVING NORTHWARD.
A GOOD MID LEVEL FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
700-500MB IN ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT NOTED EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER WEST TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE DRY SLOT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER
SOUTH OF I-20...BUT IF THE DRY SLOT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED... THEN THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED OVERNIGHT.
LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD BE THE ONLY CONCERN WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVELS.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BRINGING BRISK NORTH WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD WESTERN MEXICO IN WAKE
OF THE EXITING CENTRAL U.S SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
END WELL BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AREAS MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
AND ONLY IN THE 40S AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTH WINDS READILY RETURN ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOME AND
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AND MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S EAST
TO THE 60S WEST. THE LARGE SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DOES AMPLIFY BY MID
WEEK AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND TRACK IT
EAST TOWARD SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE BROAD YET
RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CREEP AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
COOL AND DRY. ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY NOT BEING VERY RICH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE
SOUTH TEXAS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AND BRISK NORTH WINDS. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT STAY FOR LONG
AS RIDGING ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  58  30  44  35 /  90  50   0   0   0
WACO, TX              53  63  32  47  34 /  80  40   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             46  57  27  42  30 /  90  70   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            47  56  28  44  32 /  90  40   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  56  28  43  31 /  90  60   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            51  58  30  44  35 /  90  60   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           49  62  29  44  32 /  90  70   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         54  63  31  45  34 /  80  60   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            53  63  33  48  35 /  70  40  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     46  53  28  46  33 /  80  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KEWX 010518
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1118 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/

PATCHY LIGHT RAINS SHOULD PULL EAST OF THE I-35 TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT HOUR. PERHAPS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
BUT WILL STICK WITH MAINLY DEVELOPING FOG AND LOWERING CIGS
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER SITES ALONG I-35. OUT WEST...A TEMPO GROUP
WAS ADDED TO DRT IN A FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TO
THE VCNTY WHILE LIFTING GENERALLY E TO NE.

EXPECT VSBYS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO LIFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH
SPOTTY VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN TAFS. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SW IS SHOWN IN MODEL DATA SQUEEZE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM OVER I-35 TERMINALS DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THEN ANOTHER WIND SHIFT BEGINS THE IMPROVING SKIES
WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTH WIND TO CLOSE OUT THE TAF PERIODS.

&& /MO&LH/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

UPDATE...
RAIN IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE A RESPITE FROM RAIN FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CHIHUAHUA ARRIVES. RAINFALL FROM EARLIER
TODAY...WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION OFF THE GULF...AND MID-
LEVEL DRYING SHOULD PROMOTE BOTH RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTION FOG.
WE THINK THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG...BUT THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ALONG
THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AND IN THE HILL COUNTRY. IN ADDITION TO
REDUCING POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...WE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AND RE-ORIENTED POPS
AND THE MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY 12Z TO 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES PER THE SPC DISCUSSION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST WATER VAPOR CHANNEL
PHOTOS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT LOWER LEVEL...A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS PUSHING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 5KFT OF 40 TO 50 MPH
BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE...IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A NEW
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE WAVE NEARS...EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...FIRST AFFECTING THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THEN THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS
WAVE COULD BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH FEW LOCATIONS GETTING UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH. ONCE THIS WAVES PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WILL
HAVE A BREAK FROM THE MODERATE RAINS WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN ZONES.
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARTS OF THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR OTHER AREAS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER AIRMASS
AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY...MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE I-35 AND LOWER 40S OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY AND COOL ON MONDAY WITH HIGH ONLY IN THE 50S. BY
TUESDAY...SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL FINALLY TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  68  36  51  37 /  50  30  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  69  37  51  33 /  50  40  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  71  38  53  36 /  50  30  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  64  32  50  34 /  30  30  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  69  41  56  40 /  30  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  65  33  49  34 /  50  30  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  73  39  56  37 /  30  30  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  69  37  51  35 /  50  30  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  70  38  51  36 /  50  40  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  70  39  54  38 /  30  30  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  73  40  55  38 /  30  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KEWX 010518
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1118 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/

PATCHY LIGHT RAINS SHOULD PULL EAST OF THE I-35 TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT HOUR. PERHAPS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
BUT WILL STICK WITH MAINLY DEVELOPING FOG AND LOWERING CIGS
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER SITES ALONG I-35. OUT WEST...A TEMPO GROUP
WAS ADDED TO DRT IN A FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TO
THE VCNTY WHILE LIFTING GENERALLY E TO NE.

EXPECT VSBYS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO LIFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH
SPOTTY VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN TAFS. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SW IS SHOWN IN MODEL DATA SQUEEZE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM OVER I-35 TERMINALS DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THEN ANOTHER WIND SHIFT BEGINS THE IMPROVING SKIES
WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTH WIND TO CLOSE OUT THE TAF PERIODS.

&& /MO&LH/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

UPDATE...
RAIN IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE A RESPITE FROM RAIN FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CHIHUAHUA ARRIVES. RAINFALL FROM EARLIER
TODAY...WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION OFF THE GULF...AND MID-
LEVEL DRYING SHOULD PROMOTE BOTH RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTION FOG.
WE THINK THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG...BUT THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ALONG
THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AND IN THE HILL COUNTRY. IN ADDITION TO
REDUCING POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...WE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AND RE-ORIENTED POPS
AND THE MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY 12Z TO 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES PER THE SPC DISCUSSION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST WATER VAPOR CHANNEL
PHOTOS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT LOWER LEVEL...A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS PUSHING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 5KFT OF 40 TO 50 MPH
BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE...IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A NEW
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE WAVE NEARS...EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...FIRST AFFECTING THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THEN THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS
WAVE COULD BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH FEW LOCATIONS GETTING UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH. ONCE THIS WAVES PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WILL
HAVE A BREAK FROM THE MODERATE RAINS WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN ZONES.
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARTS OF THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR OTHER AREAS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER AIRMASS
AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY...MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE I-35 AND LOWER 40S OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY AND COOL ON MONDAY WITH HIGH ONLY IN THE 50S. BY
TUESDAY...SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL FINALLY TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  68  36  51  37 /  50  30  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  69  37  51  33 /  50  40  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  71  38  53  36 /  50  30  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  64  32  50  34 /  30  30  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  69  41  56  40 /  30  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  65  33  49  34 /  50  30  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  73  39  56  37 /  30  30  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  69  37  51  35 /  50  30  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  70  38  51  36 /  50  40  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  70  39  54  38 /  30  30  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  73  40  55  38 /  30  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 010518
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1118 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/

PATCHY LIGHT RAINS SHOULD PULL EAST OF THE I-35 TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT HOUR. PERHAPS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
BUT WILL STICK WITH MAINLY DEVELOPING FOG AND LOWERING CIGS
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER SITES ALONG I-35. OUT WEST...A TEMPO GROUP
WAS ADDED TO DRT IN A FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TO
THE VCNTY WHILE LIFTING GENERALLY E TO NE.

EXPECT VSBYS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO LIFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH
SPOTTY VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN TAFS. WINDS
SHIFTING TO SW IS SHOWN IN MODEL DATA SQUEEZE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM OVER I-35 TERMINALS DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS. THEN ANOTHER WIND SHIFT BEGINS THE IMPROVING SKIES
WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTH WIND TO CLOSE OUT THE TAF PERIODS.

&& /MO&LH/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

UPDATE...
RAIN IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE A RESPITE FROM RAIN FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CHIHUAHUA ARRIVES. RAINFALL FROM EARLIER
TODAY...WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION OFF THE GULF...AND MID-
LEVEL DRYING SHOULD PROMOTE BOTH RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTION FOG.
WE THINK THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG...BUT THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ALONG
THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AND IN THE HILL COUNTRY. IN ADDITION TO
REDUCING POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...WE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AND RE-ORIENTED POPS
AND THE MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY 12Z TO 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES PER THE SPC DISCUSSION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST WATER VAPOR CHANNEL
PHOTOS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT LOWER LEVEL...A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS PUSHING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 5KFT OF 40 TO 50 MPH
BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE...IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A NEW
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE WAVE NEARS...EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...FIRST AFFECTING THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THEN THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS
WAVE COULD BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH FEW LOCATIONS GETTING UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH. ONCE THIS WAVES PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WILL
HAVE A BREAK FROM THE MODERATE RAINS WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN ZONES.
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARTS OF THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR OTHER AREAS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER AIRMASS
AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY...MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE I-35 AND LOWER 40S OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY AND COOL ON MONDAY WITH HIGH ONLY IN THE 50S. BY
TUESDAY...SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL FINALLY TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  68  36  51  37 /  50  30  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  69  37  51  33 /  50  40  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  71  38  53  36 /  50  30  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  64  32  50  34 /  30  30  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  69  41  56  40 /  30  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  65  33  49  34 /  50  30  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  73  39  56  37 /  30  30  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  69  37  51  35 /  50  30  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  70  38  51  36 /  50  40  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  70  39  54  38 /  30  30  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  73  40  55  38 /  30  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KSJT 010515
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1115 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Most West Central TX forecast terminals are reporting MVFR
ceilings as of 05z, but conditions should deteriorate overnight
with most areas dropping into IFR (with ceilings under 1000 ft).
Scattered showers will affect KSJT, KABI, and KSOA early this
morning, but confidence is too low to mention elsewhere.
Otherwise, expect patchy fog/drizzle to restrict visibilities at
times. Winds will veer to the southwest late tonight, shifting to
the north as a cold front moves across the area during the late
morning and early afternoon hours. Winds will be gusty through
around 00z, eventually subsiding after sunset. Ceilings will
rapidly improve behind this front with VFR conditions expected
areawide by mid- afternoon.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated the grids and zones to go with chance POPS across the
entire area tonight. Also, a few thunderstorms are possible
across the Northern Edwards Plateau.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Ceilings remain below 1500 ft across most of West Central TX, with
many forecast terminals experiencing IFR (or worse) conditions.
The primary rain shield has moved east of the forecast area.
However, isentropic ascent will ramp up overnight, resulting in
lowering ceilings and potential light precipitation, mainly in the
form of drizzle. This will knock cloud bases down to generally
700 ft or lower and should cause prevailing visibilities to drop
to 5 miles or less. Some locations may experience more significant
reductions in visibility. Expect poor flight conditions overnight
but winds will veer to the southwest overnight ahead of a cold
front. This front will move through the Big Country mid/late
morning, bringing drier air into the area and eroding the low
clouds from north to south throughout the day. Gusty north winds
will prevail in the wake of this front.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday )

Light rain was moving north of I-20, and east of an  Abilene...
Brady...Mason line at 3 PM. An upper low was west of El Paso,
moving slowly southeast.

Rain was pushing east and ending of West Central, faster than the
models indicated. Indeed at the current pace, nearly all the
present rain at 3 PM will be east or north of West Central Texas
by 6 PM. Kept a chance of showers going overnight, however, with
the El Paso low sending weak disturbances eastward. Additional
rainfall amounts will be light...ranging from a trace to a few
hundredths inch. The NAM and EC models bring isolated to scattered
light showers over West Central Texas tonight. The GFS model`s
convective algorithm is dry. The short range HRRR model brings in
scattered showers, mainly over Crockett county, the Concho Valley
and areas southward. Timing was between 9 PM and 4 AM. This may
actually be the best model as it seems to latched on an area of
lift in the water vapor loop south of El Paso.

A cold front will move through West Central Texas Sunday bringing
gusty north winds by noon. This clear low level moisture and
clouds. Sunshine in the afternoon should allow afternoon highs to
be a 2-4 degrees warmer than today`s, despite cold air advection.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

Warmer weather will make a return to West Central Texas for the
first half of the week. An area of high pressure centered over the
region on Monday, will slide off to our east by mid-week. A
thermal ridge at 850 mb will expand east over the area, allowing
high temperatures to climb from the mid 50s on Monday, to the mid
60s by Wednesday. A weak cold front approaching the area from the
north Wednesday night, will wash out near Interstate 10 during the
day Thursday, bringing cooler/drier air to the region. However,
this will be short-lived, as a lee trough develops to our west on
Friday. With a return flow developing, warmer temperatures and
increasing moisture are expected.

Precipitation chances may also increase for the southern half of
the forecast area. An upper-level disturbance currently located
over Baja California, is expected to pass by to our southeast
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This system may bring a chance of
rain to the region, mainly south of a line from San Angelo to
Brownwood. This afternoon`s numerical models have once again
shifted the track of the disturbance farther south and east,
reducing forecast confidence. However, the models have been flip-
flopping on the track for the last few model runs, and considering
the system is still largely in a data-void region, this will
likely continue through the next 48 hours. By then, the system
will enter an improving observational/upper-air network, which may
result in improved model continuity. Given the concerns mentioned
above, only minimal changes were made to the rainfall forecast for
the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  49  51  24  51  36 /  40  10   5   5   5
San Angelo  51  60  27  54  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
Junction  52  64  30  55  34 /  40  20   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KSJT 010515
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1115 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Most West Central TX forecast terminals are reporting MVFR
ceilings as of 05z, but conditions should deteriorate overnight
with most areas dropping into IFR (with ceilings under 1000 ft).
Scattered showers will affect KSJT, KABI, and KSOA early this
morning, but confidence is too low to mention elsewhere.
Otherwise, expect patchy fog/drizzle to restrict visibilities at
times. Winds will veer to the southwest late tonight, shifting to
the north as a cold front moves across the area during the late
morning and early afternoon hours. Winds will be gusty through
around 00z, eventually subsiding after sunset. Ceilings will
rapidly improve behind this front with VFR conditions expected
areawide by mid- afternoon.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated the grids and zones to go with chance POPS across the
entire area tonight. Also, a few thunderstorms are possible
across the Northern Edwards Plateau.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Ceilings remain below 1500 ft across most of West Central TX, with
many forecast terminals experiencing IFR (or worse) conditions.
The primary rain shield has moved east of the forecast area.
However, isentropic ascent will ramp up overnight, resulting in
lowering ceilings and potential light precipitation, mainly in the
form of drizzle. This will knock cloud bases down to generally
700 ft or lower and should cause prevailing visibilities to drop
to 5 miles or less. Some locations may experience more significant
reductions in visibility. Expect poor flight conditions overnight
but winds will veer to the southwest overnight ahead of a cold
front. This front will move through the Big Country mid/late
morning, bringing drier air into the area and eroding the low
clouds from north to south throughout the day. Gusty north winds
will prevail in the wake of this front.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday )

Light rain was moving north of I-20, and east of an  Abilene...
Brady...Mason line at 3 PM. An upper low was west of El Paso,
moving slowly southeast.

Rain was pushing east and ending of West Central, faster than the
models indicated. Indeed at the current pace, nearly all the
present rain at 3 PM will be east or north of West Central Texas
by 6 PM. Kept a chance of showers going overnight, however, with
the El Paso low sending weak disturbances eastward. Additional
rainfall amounts will be light...ranging from a trace to a few
hundredths inch. The NAM and EC models bring isolated to scattered
light showers over West Central Texas tonight. The GFS model`s
convective algorithm is dry. The short range HRRR model brings in
scattered showers, mainly over Crockett county, the Concho Valley
and areas southward. Timing was between 9 PM and 4 AM. This may
actually be the best model as it seems to latched on an area of
lift in the water vapor loop south of El Paso.

A cold front will move through West Central Texas Sunday bringing
gusty north winds by noon. This clear low level moisture and
clouds. Sunshine in the afternoon should allow afternoon highs to
be a 2-4 degrees warmer than today`s, despite cold air advection.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

Warmer weather will make a return to West Central Texas for the
first half of the week. An area of high pressure centered over the
region on Monday, will slide off to our east by mid-week. A
thermal ridge at 850 mb will expand east over the area, allowing
high temperatures to climb from the mid 50s on Monday, to the mid
60s by Wednesday. A weak cold front approaching the area from the
north Wednesday night, will wash out near Interstate 10 during the
day Thursday, bringing cooler/drier air to the region. However,
this will be short-lived, as a lee trough develops to our west on
Friday. With a return flow developing, warmer temperatures and
increasing moisture are expected.

Precipitation chances may also increase for the southern half of
the forecast area. An upper-level disturbance currently located
over Baja California, is expected to pass by to our southeast
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This system may bring a chance of
rain to the region, mainly south of a line from San Angelo to
Brownwood. This afternoon`s numerical models have once again
shifted the track of the disturbance farther south and east,
reducing forecast confidence. However, the models have been flip-
flopping on the track for the last few model runs, and considering
the system is still largely in a data-void region, this will
likely continue through the next 48 hours. By then, the system
will enter an improving observational/upper-air network, which may
result in improved model continuity. Given the concerns mentioned
above, only minimal changes were made to the rainfall forecast for
the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  49  51  24  51  36 /  40  10   5   5   5
San Angelo  51  60  27  54  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
Junction  52  64  30  55  34 /  40  20   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25




000
FXUS64 KSJT 010515
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1115 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Most West Central TX forecast terminals are reporting MVFR
ceilings as of 05z, but conditions should deteriorate overnight
with most areas dropping into IFR (with ceilings under 1000 ft).
Scattered showers will affect KSJT, KABI, and KSOA early this
morning, but confidence is too low to mention elsewhere.
Otherwise, expect patchy fog/drizzle to restrict visibilities at
times. Winds will veer to the southwest late tonight, shifting to
the north as a cold front moves across the area during the late
morning and early afternoon hours. Winds will be gusty through
around 00z, eventually subsiding after sunset. Ceilings will
rapidly improve behind this front with VFR conditions expected
areawide by mid- afternoon.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated the grids and zones to go with chance POPS across the
entire area tonight. Also, a few thunderstorms are possible
across the Northern Edwards Plateau.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Ceilings remain below 1500 ft across most of West Central TX, with
many forecast terminals experiencing IFR (or worse) conditions.
The primary rain shield has moved east of the forecast area.
However, isentropic ascent will ramp up overnight, resulting in
lowering ceilings and potential light precipitation, mainly in the
form of drizzle. This will knock cloud bases down to generally
700 ft or lower and should cause prevailing visibilities to drop
to 5 miles or less. Some locations may experience more significant
reductions in visibility. Expect poor flight conditions overnight
but winds will veer to the southwest overnight ahead of a cold
front. This front will move through the Big Country mid/late
morning, bringing drier air into the area and eroding the low
clouds from north to south throughout the day. Gusty north winds
will prevail in the wake of this front.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday )

Light rain was moving north of I-20, and east of an  Abilene...
Brady...Mason line at 3 PM. An upper low was west of El Paso,
moving slowly southeast.

Rain was pushing east and ending of West Central, faster than the
models indicated. Indeed at the current pace, nearly all the
present rain at 3 PM will be east or north of West Central Texas
by 6 PM. Kept a chance of showers going overnight, however, with
the El Paso low sending weak disturbances eastward. Additional
rainfall amounts will be light...ranging from a trace to a few
hundredths inch. The NAM and EC models bring isolated to scattered
light showers over West Central Texas tonight. The GFS model`s
convective algorithm is dry. The short range HRRR model brings in
scattered showers, mainly over Crockett county, the Concho Valley
and areas southward. Timing was between 9 PM and 4 AM. This may
actually be the best model as it seems to latched on an area of
lift in the water vapor loop south of El Paso.

A cold front will move through West Central Texas Sunday bringing
gusty north winds by noon. This clear low level moisture and
clouds. Sunshine in the afternoon should allow afternoon highs to
be a 2-4 degrees warmer than today`s, despite cold air advection.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

Warmer weather will make a return to West Central Texas for the
first half of the week. An area of high pressure centered over the
region on Monday, will slide off to our east by mid-week. A
thermal ridge at 850 mb will expand east over the area, allowing
high temperatures to climb from the mid 50s on Monday, to the mid
60s by Wednesday. A weak cold front approaching the area from the
north Wednesday night, will wash out near Interstate 10 during the
day Thursday, bringing cooler/drier air to the region. However,
this will be short-lived, as a lee trough develops to our west on
Friday. With a return flow developing, warmer temperatures and
increasing moisture are expected.

Precipitation chances may also increase for the southern half of
the forecast area. An upper-level disturbance currently located
over Baja California, is expected to pass by to our southeast
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This system may bring a chance of
rain to the region, mainly south of a line from San Angelo to
Brownwood. This afternoon`s numerical models have once again
shifted the track of the disturbance farther south and east,
reducing forecast confidence. However, the models have been flip-
flopping on the track for the last few model runs, and considering
the system is still largely in a data-void region, this will
likely continue through the next 48 hours. By then, the system
will enter an improving observational/upper-air network, which may
result in improved model continuity. Given the concerns mentioned
above, only minimal changes were made to the rainfall forecast for
the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  49  51  24  51  36 /  40  10   5   5   5
San Angelo  51  60  27  54  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
Junction  52  64  30  55  34 /  40  20   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25




000
FXUS64 KSJT 010515
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1115 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Most West Central TX forecast terminals are reporting MVFR
ceilings as of 05z, but conditions should deteriorate overnight
with most areas dropping into IFR (with ceilings under 1000 ft).
Scattered showers will affect KSJT, KABI, and KSOA early this
morning, but confidence is too low to mention elsewhere.
Otherwise, expect patchy fog/drizzle to restrict visibilities at
times. Winds will veer to the southwest late tonight, shifting to
the north as a cold front moves across the area during the late
morning and early afternoon hours. Winds will be gusty through
around 00z, eventually subsiding after sunset. Ceilings will
rapidly improve behind this front with VFR conditions expected
areawide by mid- afternoon.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated the grids and zones to go with chance POPS across the
entire area tonight. Also, a few thunderstorms are possible
across the Northern Edwards Plateau.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Ceilings remain below 1500 ft across most of West Central TX, with
many forecast terminals experiencing IFR (or worse) conditions.
The primary rain shield has moved east of the forecast area.
However, isentropic ascent will ramp up overnight, resulting in
lowering ceilings and potential light precipitation, mainly in the
form of drizzle. This will knock cloud bases down to generally
700 ft or lower and should cause prevailing visibilities to drop
to 5 miles or less. Some locations may experience more significant
reductions in visibility. Expect poor flight conditions overnight
but winds will veer to the southwest overnight ahead of a cold
front. This front will move through the Big Country mid/late
morning, bringing drier air into the area and eroding the low
clouds from north to south throughout the day. Gusty north winds
will prevail in the wake of this front.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday )

Light rain was moving north of I-20, and east of an  Abilene...
Brady...Mason line at 3 PM. An upper low was west of El Paso,
moving slowly southeast.

Rain was pushing east and ending of West Central, faster than the
models indicated. Indeed at the current pace, nearly all the
present rain at 3 PM will be east or north of West Central Texas
by 6 PM. Kept a chance of showers going overnight, however, with
the El Paso low sending weak disturbances eastward. Additional
rainfall amounts will be light...ranging from a trace to a few
hundredths inch. The NAM and EC models bring isolated to scattered
light showers over West Central Texas tonight. The GFS model`s
convective algorithm is dry. The short range HRRR model brings in
scattered showers, mainly over Crockett county, the Concho Valley
and areas southward. Timing was between 9 PM and 4 AM. This may
actually be the best model as it seems to latched on an area of
lift in the water vapor loop south of El Paso.

A cold front will move through West Central Texas Sunday bringing
gusty north winds by noon. This clear low level moisture and
clouds. Sunshine in the afternoon should allow afternoon highs to
be a 2-4 degrees warmer than today`s, despite cold air advection.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

Warmer weather will make a return to West Central Texas for the
first half of the week. An area of high pressure centered over the
region on Monday, will slide off to our east by mid-week. A
thermal ridge at 850 mb will expand east over the area, allowing
high temperatures to climb from the mid 50s on Monday, to the mid
60s by Wednesday. A weak cold front approaching the area from the
north Wednesday night, will wash out near Interstate 10 during the
day Thursday, bringing cooler/drier air to the region. However,
this will be short-lived, as a lee trough develops to our west on
Friday. With a return flow developing, warmer temperatures and
increasing moisture are expected.

Precipitation chances may also increase for the southern half of
the forecast area. An upper-level disturbance currently located
over Baja California, is expected to pass by to our southeast
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This system may bring a chance of
rain to the region, mainly south of a line from San Angelo to
Brownwood. This afternoon`s numerical models have once again
shifted the track of the disturbance farther south and east,
reducing forecast confidence. However, the models have been flip-
flopping on the track for the last few model runs, and considering
the system is still largely in a data-void region, this will
likely continue through the next 48 hours. By then, the system
will enter an improving observational/upper-air network, which may
result in improved model continuity. Given the concerns mentioned
above, only minimal changes were made to the rainfall forecast for
the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  49  51  24  51  36 /  40  10   5   5   5
San Angelo  51  60  27  54  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
Junction  52  64  30  55  34 /  40  20   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010458 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1058 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LATE NIGHT CIGS/VSBYS. FOR
NOW HAVE VFR PREVAILING BUT WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE AND INTO SUN MRNG. AVIATION
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY INDICATING THAT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE HAS NOT
HANDLED EARLIER EVENING CONDITIONS VERY WELL. IN ADDITION...LLVL
WIND FLOW IS NOT PROG TO BECOME OVERLY CONDUCIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STRATUS/FOG EVENT. THUS...FOR NOW...WILL HAVE AREA TAFS AT VFR TO
START THE TAF PERIOD AND HINT AT SCT IFR/LIFR CIGS DVLPNG AROUND
SUNRISE. IF CONDITIONS DO END UP DETERIORATING...VFR SHOULD RETURN
BY MID/LATE MRNG AND CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
STRONG SRLY LLJ EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAY LEAD TO NON CONVECTIVE
LLWS BEFORE LLJ DECREASES IN INTENSITY LATE IN THE NIGHT. SW/WRLY
WINDS 5 TO 10 KT FROM MID MRNG TO MID AFTN BEFORE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED DAY A STRONG
FROPA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  75  46  53  44  /  40  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          59  74  41  52  40  /  50  40  20  10  10
LAREDO            59  76  48  54  42  /  30  10  10  10  30
ALICE             60  77  46  54  42  /  40  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          62  68  45  52  46  /  40  30  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  73  45  55  41  /  30  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  78  47  54  43  /  40  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       62  70  47  53  47  /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010458 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1058 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LATE NIGHT CIGS/VSBYS. FOR
NOW HAVE VFR PREVAILING BUT WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE AND INTO SUN MRNG. AVIATION
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY INDICATING THAT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE HAS NOT
HANDLED EARLIER EVENING CONDITIONS VERY WELL. IN ADDITION...LLVL
WIND FLOW IS NOT PROG TO BECOME OVERLY CONDUCIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STRATUS/FOG EVENT. THUS...FOR NOW...WILL HAVE AREA TAFS AT VFR TO
START THE TAF PERIOD AND HINT AT SCT IFR/LIFR CIGS DVLPNG AROUND
SUNRISE. IF CONDITIONS DO END UP DETERIORATING...VFR SHOULD RETURN
BY MID/LATE MRNG AND CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
STRONG SRLY LLJ EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAY LEAD TO NON CONVECTIVE
LLWS BEFORE LLJ DECREASES IN INTENSITY LATE IN THE NIGHT. SW/WRLY
WINDS 5 TO 10 KT FROM MID MRNG TO MID AFTN BEFORE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED DAY A STRONG
FROPA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  75  46  53  44  /  40  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          59  74  41  52  40  /  50  40  20  10  10
LAREDO            59  76  48  54  42  /  30  10  10  10  30
ALICE             60  77  46  54  42  /  40  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          62  68  45  52  46  /  40  30  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  73  45  55  41  /  30  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  78  47  54  43  /  40  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       62  70  47  53  47  /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 010458 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1058 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LATE NIGHT CIGS/VSBYS. FOR
NOW HAVE VFR PREVAILING BUT WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE AND INTO SUN MRNG. AVIATION
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY INDICATING THAT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE HAS NOT
HANDLED EARLIER EVENING CONDITIONS VERY WELL. IN ADDITION...LLVL
WIND FLOW IS NOT PROG TO BECOME OVERLY CONDUCIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STRATUS/FOG EVENT. THUS...FOR NOW...WILL HAVE AREA TAFS AT VFR TO
START THE TAF PERIOD AND HINT AT SCT IFR/LIFR CIGS DVLPNG AROUND
SUNRISE. IF CONDITIONS DO END UP DETERIORATING...VFR SHOULD RETURN
BY MID/LATE MRNG AND CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
STRONG SRLY LLJ EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAY LEAD TO NON CONVECTIVE
LLWS BEFORE LLJ DECREASES IN INTENSITY LATE IN THE NIGHT. SW/WRLY
WINDS 5 TO 10 KT FROM MID MRNG TO MID AFTN BEFORE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED DAY A STRONG
FROPA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  75  46  53  44  /  40  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          59  74  41  52  40  /  50  40  20  10  10
LAREDO            59  76  48  54  42  /  30  10  10  10  30
ALICE             60  77  46  54  42  /  40  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          62  68  45  52  46  /  40  30  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  73  45  55  41  /  30  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  78  47  54  43  /  40  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       62  70  47  53  47  /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KAMA 010454 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1054 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MOIST LOW-LEVELS CAN LEAD
TO LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING TO AROUND 20 KTS SUSTAINED
AND BECOME GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN IFR
CIGS AT KAMA AND MVFR CIGS AT KDHT THIS EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SCT LOW
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. POSSIBLE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO
IMPACT MAINLY THE KGUY/KDHT TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THIS FORECAST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS
SUSTAINED AND BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A PREDOMINATELY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS PEEL
OUT LATER TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOLISH BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND H85 TEMPS PUSH TO AROUND 12C BY TUE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING TEMPS CRASHING DOWN BRIEFLY ON WED AND THU
BEFORE A POTENTIALLY BIG WARMUP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MED RANGE
MODELS HAVE H85 TEMPS FROM 17-21C BY NEXT SATURDAY. IF THESE
READINGS PAN OUT, HIGHS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE 70S ON SAT.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010454 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1054 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MOIST LOW-LEVELS CAN LEAD
TO LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING TO AROUND 20 KTS SUSTAINED
AND BECOME GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN IFR
CIGS AT KAMA AND MVFR CIGS AT KDHT THIS EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SCT LOW
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. POSSIBLE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO
IMPACT MAINLY THE KGUY/KDHT TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THIS FORECAST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS
SUSTAINED AND BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A PREDOMINATELY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS PEEL
OUT LATER TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOLISH BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND H85 TEMPS PUSH TO AROUND 12C BY TUE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING TEMPS CRASHING DOWN BRIEFLY ON WED AND THU
BEFORE A POTENTIALLY BIG WARMUP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MED RANGE
MODELS HAVE H85 TEMPS FROM 17-21C BY NEXT SATURDAY. IF THESE
READINGS PAN OUT, HIGHS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE 70S ON SAT.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KAMA 010454 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1054 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MOIST LOW-LEVELS CAN LEAD
TO LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING TO AROUND 20 KTS SUSTAINED
AND BECOME GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN IFR
CIGS AT KAMA AND MVFR CIGS AT KDHT THIS EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SCT LOW
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. POSSIBLE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO
IMPACT MAINLY THE KGUY/KDHT TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THIS FORECAST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS
SUSTAINED AND BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A PREDOMINATELY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS PEEL
OUT LATER TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOLISH BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND H85 TEMPS PUSH TO AROUND 12C BY TUE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING TEMPS CRASHING DOWN BRIEFLY ON WED AND THU
BEFORE A POTENTIALLY BIG WARMUP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MED RANGE
MODELS HAVE H85 TEMPS FROM 17-21C BY NEXT SATURDAY. IF THESE
READINGS PAN OUT, HIGHS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE 70S ON SAT.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010454 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1054 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MOIST LOW-LEVELS CAN LEAD
TO LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING TO AROUND 20 KTS SUSTAINED
AND BECOME GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS TOWARD SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN IFR
CIGS AT KAMA AND MVFR CIGS AT KDHT THIS EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SCT LOW
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. POSSIBLE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO
IMPACT MAINLY THE KGUY/KDHT TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THIS FORECAST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS
SUSTAINED AND BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A PREDOMINATELY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS PEEL
OUT LATER TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOLISH BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND H85 TEMPS PUSH TO AROUND 12C BY TUE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING TEMPS CRASHING DOWN BRIEFLY ON WED AND THU
BEFORE A POTENTIALLY BIG WARMUP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MED RANGE
MODELS HAVE H85 TEMPS FROM 17-21C BY NEXT SATURDAY. IF THESE
READINGS PAN OUT, HIGHS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE 70S ON SAT.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 010408 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1008 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND FARTHER AWAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES THE FARTHER NORTH YOU
GO. WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION WHERE MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED /THE 40 POPS WERE
KEPT IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME OF THE SHOWERS OVER WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS APPROACHING AFTER MIDNIGHT/. THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ALSO
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE OVERNIGHT
GRID PERIODS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY CLIMB AS WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED SUNDAY.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 539 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
MODERATE RAIN BAND WILL MOVE OVER TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BUT EXPECT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF RAIN TO WANE BY 3Z.
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY...BUT HI-
RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF TAF SITES.
STILL WILL RETAIN A MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY UPDATES.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS PREVAIL NOW AND THESE WILL FALL TO IFR THIS
EVENING AS SOUTHERLY MOIST/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. WE MAY NEED
TO DROP FORECAST CIGS BELOW 400 FT OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
THIS IS LOW. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW BEFORE DAYBREAK
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY IMPROVING VSBY/CIGS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z WITH MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING A FEW HOURS IN ITS WAKE. VFR WITH N/NW WINDS AT 20G30KT
WILL THEN PREVAIL BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND CA/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND TONIGHT...THEN STALL
AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE RACING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AS NOTED BY THE
8-10 DEG/C 850MB DEW POINTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVING NORTHWARD.
A GOOD MID LEVEL FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
700-500MB IN ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT NOTED EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER WEST TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE DRY SLOT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER
SOUTH OF I-20...BUT IF THE DRY SLOT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED... THEN THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED OVERNIGHT.
LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD BE THE ONLY CONCERN WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVELS.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BRINGING BRISK NORTH WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD WESTERN MEXICO IN WAKE
OF THE EXITING CENTRAL U.S SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
END WELL BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AREAS MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
AND ONLY IN THE 40S AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTH WINDS READILY RETURN ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOME AND
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AND MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S EAST
TO THE 60S WEST. THE LARGE SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DOES AMPLIFY BY MID
WEEK AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND TRACK IT
EAST TOWARD SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE BROAD YET
RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CREEP AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
COOL AND DRY. ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY NOT BEING VERY RICH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE
SOUTH TEXAS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AND BRISK NORTH WINDS. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT STAY FOR LONG
AS RIDGING ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  58  30  44  35 /  90  50   0   0   0
WACO, TX              53  63  32  47  34 /  80  40   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             46  57  27  42  30 /  90  70   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            47  56  28  44  32 /  90  40   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  56  28  43  31 /  90  60   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            51  58  30  44  35 /  90  60   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           49  62  29  44  32 /  90  70   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         54  63  31  45  34 /  80  60   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            53  63  33  48  35 /  70  40  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     46  53  28  46  33 /  80  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 010408 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1008 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND FARTHER AWAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES THE FARTHER NORTH YOU
GO. WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION WHERE MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED /THE 40 POPS WERE
KEPT IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME OF THE SHOWERS OVER WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS APPROACHING AFTER MIDNIGHT/. THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ALSO
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE OVERNIGHT
GRID PERIODS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY CLIMB AS WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED SUNDAY.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 539 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
MODERATE RAIN BAND WILL MOVE OVER TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BUT EXPECT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF RAIN TO WANE BY 3Z.
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY...BUT HI-
RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF TAF SITES.
STILL WILL RETAIN A MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY UPDATES.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS PREVAIL NOW AND THESE WILL FALL TO IFR THIS
EVENING AS SOUTHERLY MOIST/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. WE MAY NEED
TO DROP FORECAST CIGS BELOW 400 FT OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
THIS IS LOW. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW BEFORE DAYBREAK
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY IMPROVING VSBY/CIGS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z WITH MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING A FEW HOURS IN ITS WAKE. VFR WITH N/NW WINDS AT 20G30KT
WILL THEN PREVAIL BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND CA/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND TONIGHT...THEN STALL
AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE RACING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AS NOTED BY THE
8-10 DEG/C 850MB DEW POINTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVING NORTHWARD.
A GOOD MID LEVEL FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
700-500MB IN ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT NOTED EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER WEST TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE DRY SLOT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER
SOUTH OF I-20...BUT IF THE DRY SLOT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED... THEN THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED OVERNIGHT.
LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD BE THE ONLY CONCERN WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVELS.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BRINGING BRISK NORTH WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD WESTERN MEXICO IN WAKE
OF THE EXITING CENTRAL U.S SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
END WELL BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AREAS MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
AND ONLY IN THE 40S AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTH WINDS READILY RETURN ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOME AND
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AND MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S EAST
TO THE 60S WEST. THE LARGE SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DOES AMPLIFY BY MID
WEEK AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND TRACK IT
EAST TOWARD SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE BROAD YET
RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CREEP AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
COOL AND DRY. ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY NOT BEING VERY RICH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE
SOUTH TEXAS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AND BRISK NORTH WINDS. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT STAY FOR LONG
AS RIDGING ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  58  30  44  35 /  90  50   0   0   0
WACO, TX              53  63  32  47  34 /  80  40   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             46  57  27  42  30 /  90  70   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            47  56  28  44  32 /  90  40   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  56  28  43  31 /  90  60   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            51  58  30  44  35 /  90  60   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           49  62  29  44  32 /  90  70   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         54  63  31  45  34 /  80  60   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            53  63  33  48  35 /  70  40  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     46  53  28  46  33 /  80  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 010408 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1008 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND FARTHER AWAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES THE FARTHER NORTH YOU
GO. WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION WHERE MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED /THE 40 POPS WERE
KEPT IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME OF THE SHOWERS OVER WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS APPROACHING AFTER MIDNIGHT/. THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ALSO
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE OVERNIGHT
GRID PERIODS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY CLIMB AS WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED SUNDAY.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 539 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
MODERATE RAIN BAND WILL MOVE OVER TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BUT EXPECT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF RAIN TO WANE BY 3Z.
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY...BUT HI-
RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF TAF SITES.
STILL WILL RETAIN A MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY UPDATES.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS PREVAIL NOW AND THESE WILL FALL TO IFR THIS
EVENING AS SOUTHERLY MOIST/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. WE MAY NEED
TO DROP FORECAST CIGS BELOW 400 FT OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
THIS IS LOW. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW BEFORE DAYBREAK
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY IMPROVING VSBY/CIGS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z WITH MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING A FEW HOURS IN ITS WAKE. VFR WITH N/NW WINDS AT 20G30KT
WILL THEN PREVAIL BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND CA/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND TONIGHT...THEN STALL
AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE RACING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AS NOTED BY THE
8-10 DEG/C 850MB DEW POINTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVING NORTHWARD.
A GOOD MID LEVEL FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
700-500MB IN ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT NOTED EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER WEST TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE DRY SLOT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER
SOUTH OF I-20...BUT IF THE DRY SLOT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED... THEN THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED OVERNIGHT.
LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD BE THE ONLY CONCERN WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVELS.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BRINGING BRISK NORTH WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD WESTERN MEXICO IN WAKE
OF THE EXITING CENTRAL U.S SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
END WELL BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AREAS MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
AND ONLY IN THE 40S AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTH WINDS READILY RETURN ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOME AND
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AND MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S EAST
TO THE 60S WEST. THE LARGE SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DOES AMPLIFY BY MID
WEEK AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND TRACK IT
EAST TOWARD SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE BROAD YET
RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CREEP AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
COOL AND DRY. ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY NOT BEING VERY RICH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE
SOUTH TEXAS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AND BRISK NORTH WINDS. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT STAY FOR LONG
AS RIDGING ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  58  30  44  35 /  90  50   0   0   0
WACO, TX              53  63  32  47  34 /  80  40   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             46  57  27  42  30 /  90  70   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            47  56  28  44  32 /  90  40   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  56  28  43  31 /  90  60   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            51  58  30  44  35 /  90  60   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           49  62  29  44  32 /  90  70   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         54  63  31  45  34 /  80  60   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            53  63  33  48  35 /  70  40  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     46  53  28  46  33 /  80  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 010408 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1008 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND FARTHER AWAY.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES THE FARTHER NORTH YOU
GO. WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION WHERE MOST PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED /THE 40 POPS WERE
KEPT IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME OF THE SHOWERS OVER WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS APPROACHING AFTER MIDNIGHT/. THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ALSO
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE OVERNIGHT
GRID PERIODS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY CLIMB AS WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED SUNDAY.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 539 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
MODERATE RAIN BAND WILL MOVE OVER TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BUT EXPECT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF RAIN TO WANE BY 3Z.
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY...BUT HI-
RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF TAF SITES.
STILL WILL RETAIN A MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY UPDATES.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS PREVAIL NOW AND THESE WILL FALL TO IFR THIS
EVENING AS SOUTHERLY MOIST/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. WE MAY NEED
TO DROP FORECAST CIGS BELOW 400 FT OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
THIS IS LOW. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW BEFORE DAYBREAK
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY IMPROVING VSBY/CIGS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z WITH MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING A FEW HOURS IN ITS WAKE. VFR WITH N/NW WINDS AT 20G30KT
WILL THEN PREVAIL BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND CA/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND TONIGHT...THEN STALL
AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE RACING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AS NOTED BY THE
8-10 DEG/C 850MB DEW POINTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVING NORTHWARD.
A GOOD MID LEVEL FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
700-500MB IN ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT NOTED EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER WEST TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE DRY SLOT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER
SOUTH OF I-20...BUT IF THE DRY SLOT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED... THEN THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED OVERNIGHT.
LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD BE THE ONLY CONCERN WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVELS.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BRINGING BRISK NORTH WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD WESTERN MEXICO IN WAKE
OF THE EXITING CENTRAL U.S SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
END WELL BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AREAS MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
AND ONLY IN THE 40S AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTH WINDS READILY RETURN ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOME AND
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AND MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S EAST
TO THE 60S WEST. THE LARGE SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DOES AMPLIFY BY MID
WEEK AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND TRACK IT
EAST TOWARD SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE BROAD YET
RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CREEP AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
COOL AND DRY. ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY NOT BEING VERY RICH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE
SOUTH TEXAS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AND BRISK NORTH WINDS. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT STAY FOR LONG
AS RIDGING ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  58  30  44  35 /  90  50   0   0   0
WACO, TX              53  63  32  47  34 /  80  40   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             46  57  27  42  30 /  90  70   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            47  56  28  44  32 /  90  40   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  56  28  43  31 /  90  60   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            51  58  30  44  35 /  90  60   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           49  62  29  44  32 /  90  70   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         54  63  31  45  34 /  80  60   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            53  63  33  48  35 /  70  40  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     46  53  28  46  33 /  80  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010340 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
940 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND TO JUST EAST OF VICTORIA WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY BACK TO
THE WEST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST OUTPUT FROM HRRR...HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN MOST PLACES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS
LOWER OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALL READY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

AVIATION...XPCTNG VFR THIS EVENING FOR MAIN S TX TERMINALS. LIGHT
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO XPAND EWRD ACROSS S TX BUT ASSOCIATED
CIGS REMAIN HIGH AND ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR THRU THE EVENING. RAIN
SHIELD SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASING REGARDING FLIGHT RULES.
HAVE VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME REDUCTION IN CIGS/VSBYS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
LATE TONIGHT...MOST IF NOT ALL OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR AS DRIER
LLVL AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SRLY WINDS 5 TO 15
KTS TONIGHT /GREATEST AT KCRP/ BECOMING WRLY MID/LATE MRNG SUN
THRU SUN AFTN. STRONGER WINDS TO EXIST TONIGHT JUST ABOVE THE SFC AT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI BUT VALUES NOT XPCTD TO BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST YET
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NON CONVECTIVE LLWS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES
JUST BEYOND VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  75  46  53  44  /  40  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          59  74  41  52  40  /  50  40  20  10  10
LAREDO            59  76  48  54  42  /  30  10  10  10  30
ALICE             60  77  46  54  42  /  40  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          62  68  45  52  46  /  40  30  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  73  45  55  41  /  30  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  78  47  54  43  /  40  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       62  70  47  53  47  /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010340 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
940 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND TO JUST EAST OF VICTORIA WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY BACK TO
THE WEST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST OUTPUT FROM HRRR...HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN MOST PLACES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS
LOWER OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALL READY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

AVIATION...XPCTNG VFR THIS EVENING FOR MAIN S TX TERMINALS. LIGHT
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO XPAND EWRD ACROSS S TX BUT ASSOCIATED
CIGS REMAIN HIGH AND ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR THRU THE EVENING. RAIN
SHIELD SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASING REGARDING FLIGHT RULES.
HAVE VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME REDUCTION IN CIGS/VSBYS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
LATE TONIGHT...MOST IF NOT ALL OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR AS DRIER
LLVL AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SRLY WINDS 5 TO 15
KTS TONIGHT /GREATEST AT KCRP/ BECOMING WRLY MID/LATE MRNG SUN
THRU SUN AFTN. STRONGER WINDS TO EXIST TONIGHT JUST ABOVE THE SFC AT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI BUT VALUES NOT XPCTD TO BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST YET
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NON CONVECTIVE LLWS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES
JUST BEYOND VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  75  46  53  44  /  40  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          59  74  41  52  40  /  50  40  20  10  10
LAREDO            59  76  48  54  42  /  30  10  10  10  30
ALICE             60  77  46  54  42  /  40  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          62  68  45  52  46  /  40  30  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  73  45  55  41  /  30  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  78  47  54  43  /  40  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       62  70  47  53  47  /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 010340 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
940 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND TO JUST EAST OF VICTORIA WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY BACK TO
THE WEST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST OUTPUT FROM HRRR...HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN MOST PLACES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS
LOWER OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALL READY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

AVIATION...XPCTNG VFR THIS EVENING FOR MAIN S TX TERMINALS. LIGHT
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO XPAND EWRD ACROSS S TX BUT ASSOCIATED
CIGS REMAIN HIGH AND ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR THRU THE EVENING. RAIN
SHIELD SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASING REGARDING FLIGHT RULES.
HAVE VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME REDUCTION IN CIGS/VSBYS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
LATE TONIGHT...MOST IF NOT ALL OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR AS DRIER
LLVL AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SRLY WINDS 5 TO 15
KTS TONIGHT /GREATEST AT KCRP/ BECOMING WRLY MID/LATE MRNG SUN
THRU SUN AFTN. STRONGER WINDS TO EXIST TONIGHT JUST ABOVE THE SFC AT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI BUT VALUES NOT XPCTD TO BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST YET
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NON CONVECTIVE LLWS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES
JUST BEYOND VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  75  46  53  44  /  40  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          59  74  41  52  40  /  50  40  20  10  10
LAREDO            59  76  48  54  42  /  30  10  10  10  30
ALICE             60  77  46  54  42  /  40  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          62  68  45  52  46  /  40  30  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  73  45  55  41  /  30  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  78  47  54  43  /  40  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       62  70  47  53  47  /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010340 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
940 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND TO JUST EAST OF VICTORIA WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY BACK TO
THE WEST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST OUTPUT FROM HRRR...HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN MOST PLACES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS
LOWER OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALL READY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

AVIATION...XPCTNG VFR THIS EVENING FOR MAIN S TX TERMINALS. LIGHT
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO XPAND EWRD ACROSS S TX BUT ASSOCIATED
CIGS REMAIN HIGH AND ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR THRU THE EVENING. RAIN
SHIELD SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASING REGARDING FLIGHT RULES.
HAVE VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME REDUCTION IN CIGS/VSBYS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
LATE TONIGHT...MOST IF NOT ALL OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR AS DRIER
LLVL AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SRLY WINDS 5 TO 15
KTS TONIGHT /GREATEST AT KCRP/ BECOMING WRLY MID/LATE MRNG SUN
THRU SUN AFTN. STRONGER WINDS TO EXIST TONIGHT JUST ABOVE THE SFC AT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI BUT VALUES NOT XPCTD TO BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST YET
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NON CONVECTIVE LLWS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES
JUST BEYOND VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  75  46  53  44  /  40  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          59  74  41  52  40  /  50  40  20  10  10
LAREDO            59  76  48  54  42  /  30  10  10  10  30
ALICE             60  77  46  54  42  /  40  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          62  68  45  52  46  /  40  30  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  73  45  55  41  /  30  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  78  47  54  43  /  40  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       62  70  47  53  47  /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010340 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
940 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND TO JUST EAST OF VICTORIA WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY BACK TO
THE WEST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST OUTPUT FROM HRRR...HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN MOST PLACES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS
LOWER OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALL READY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

AVIATION...XPCTNG VFR THIS EVENING FOR MAIN S TX TERMINALS. LIGHT
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO XPAND EWRD ACROSS S TX BUT ASSOCIATED
CIGS REMAIN HIGH AND ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR THRU THE EVENING. RAIN
SHIELD SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASING REGARDING FLIGHT RULES.
HAVE VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME REDUCTION IN CIGS/VSBYS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
LATE TONIGHT...MOST IF NOT ALL OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR AS DRIER
LLVL AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SRLY WINDS 5 TO 15
KTS TONIGHT /GREATEST AT KCRP/ BECOMING WRLY MID/LATE MRNG SUN
THRU SUN AFTN. STRONGER WINDS TO EXIST TONIGHT JUST ABOVE THE SFC AT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI BUT VALUES NOT XPCTD TO BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST YET
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NON CONVECTIVE LLWS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES
JUST BEYOND VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  75  46  53  44  /  40  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          59  74  41  52  40  /  50  40  20  10  10
LAREDO            59  76  48  54  42  /  30  10  10  10  30
ALICE             60  77  46  54  42  /  40  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          62  68  45  52  46  /  40  30  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  73  45  55  41  /  30  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  78  47  54  43  /  40  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       62  70  47  53  47  /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010340 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
940 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND TO JUST EAST OF VICTORIA WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY BACK TO
THE WEST. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST OUTPUT FROM HRRR...HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN MOST PLACES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS
LOWER OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST. REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM. UPDATED
PRODUCTS ALL READY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

AVIATION...XPCTNG VFR THIS EVENING FOR MAIN S TX TERMINALS. LIGHT
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO XPAND EWRD ACROSS S TX BUT ASSOCIATED
CIGS REMAIN HIGH AND ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR THRU THE EVENING. RAIN
SHIELD SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASING REGARDING FLIGHT RULES.
HAVE VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME REDUCTION IN CIGS/VSBYS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
LATE TONIGHT...MOST IF NOT ALL OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR AS DRIER
LLVL AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SRLY WINDS 5 TO 15
KTS TONIGHT /GREATEST AT KCRP/ BECOMING WRLY MID/LATE MRNG SUN
THRU SUN AFTN. STRONGER WINDS TO EXIST TONIGHT JUST ABOVE THE SFC AT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI BUT VALUES NOT XPCTD TO BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST YET
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NON CONVECTIVE LLWS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES
JUST BEYOND VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  75  46  53  44  /  40  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          59  74  41  52  40  /  50  40  20  10  10
LAREDO            59  76  48  54  42  /  30  10  10  10  30
ALICE             60  77  46  54  42  /  40  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          62  68  45  52  46  /  40  30  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  73  45  55  41  /  30  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  78  47  54  43  /  40  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       62  70  47  53  47  /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KSJT 010317
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated the grids and zones to go with chance POPS across the entire
area tonight. Also, a few thunderstorms are possible across the
Northern Edwards Plateau.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Ceilings remain below 1500 ft across most of West Central TX, with
many forecast terminals experiencing IFR (or worse) conditions.
The primary rain shield has moved east of the forecast area.
However, isentropic ascent will ramp up overnight, resulting in
lowering ceilings and potential light precipitation, mainly in the
form of drizzle. This will knock cloud bases down to generally
700 ft or lower and should cause prevailing visibilities to drop
to 5 miles or less. Some locations may experience more significant
reductions in visibility. Expect poor flight conditions overnight
but winds will veer to the southwest overnight ahead of a cold
front. This front will move through the Big Country mid/late
morning, bringing drier air into the area and eroding the low
clouds from north to south throughout the day. Gusty north winds
will prevail in the wake of this front.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday )

Light rain was moving north of I-20, and east of an  Abilene...
Brady...Mason line at 3 PM. An upper low was west of El Paso,
moving slowly southeast.

Rain was pushing east and ending of West Central, faster than the
models indicated. Indeed at the current pace, nearly all the
present rain at 3 PM will be east or north of West Central Texas
by 6 PM. Kept a chance of showers going overnight, however, with
the El Paso low sending weak disturbances eastward. Additional
rainfall amounts will be light...ranging from a trace to a few
hundredths inch. The NAM and EC models bring isolated to scattered
light showers over West Central Texas tonight. The GFS model`s
convective algorithm is dry. The short range HRRR model brings in
scattered showers, mainly over Crockett county, the Concho Valley
and areas southward. Timing was between 9 PM and 4 AM. This may
actually be the best model as it seems to latched on an area of
lift in the water vapor loop south of El Paso.

A cold front will move through West Central Texas Sunday bringing
gusty north winds by noon. This clear low level moisture and
clouds. Sunshine in the afternoon should allow afternoon highs to
be a 2-4 degrees warmer than today`s, despite cold air advection.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

Warmer weather will make a return to West Central Texas for the
first half of the week. An area of high pressure centered over the
region on Monday, will slide off to our east by mid-week. A
thermal ridge at 850 mb will expand east over the area, allowing
high temperatures to climb from the mid 50s on Monday, to the mid
60s by Wednesday. A weak cold front approaching the area from the
north Wednesday night, will wash out near Interstate 10 during the
day Thursday, bringing cooler/drier air to the region. However,
this will be short-lived, as a lee trough develops to our west on
Friday. With a return flow developing, warmer temperatures and
increasing moisture are expected.

Precipitation chances may also increase for the southern half of
the forecast area. An upper-level disturbance currently located
over Baja California, is expected to pass by to our southeast
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This system may bring a chance of
rain to the region, mainly south of a line from San Angelo to
Brownwood. This afternoon`s numerical models have once again
shifted the track of the disturbance farther south and east,
reducing forecast confidence. However, the models have been flip-
flopping on the track for the last few model runs, and considering
the system is still largely in a data-void region, this will
likely continue through the next 48 hours. By then, the system
will enter an improving observational/upper-air network, which may
result in improved model continuity. Given the concerns mentioned
above, only minimal changes were made to the rainfall forecast for
the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  49  51  24  51  36 /  40  10   5   5   5
San Angelo  51  60  27  54  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
Junction  52  64  30  55  34 /  60  20   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KHGX 010317
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF SE TEXAS AT 9 PM. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON RAINFALL COVERAGE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
AREA RADAR ARE SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TX ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS HOLD THE NEXT 6 HRS AND AS RAIN
DEVELOPS THINK MOST TERMINALS WILL HIT IFR. RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT 08Z-10Z WITH CIGS BACK TO MVFR LEVELS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN
RAIN FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SE
TO SW. RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE GOOD WITH THIS TIMING. COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND THEN REACH HOUSTON
TERMINALS AROUND 00Z MON. MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE WITH FROPA.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  68  35  50  36 /  50  60  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  72  38  52  37 /  50  70  20   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  67  41  51  43 /  40  50  30   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KSJT 010317
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated the grids and zones to go with chance POPS across the entire
area tonight. Also, a few thunderstorms are possible across the
Northern Edwards Plateau.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Ceilings remain below 1500 ft across most of West Central TX, with
many forecast terminals experiencing IFR (or worse) conditions.
The primary rain shield has moved east of the forecast area.
However, isentropic ascent will ramp up overnight, resulting in
lowering ceilings and potential light precipitation, mainly in the
form of drizzle. This will knock cloud bases down to generally
700 ft or lower and should cause prevailing visibilities to drop
to 5 miles or less. Some locations may experience more significant
reductions in visibility. Expect poor flight conditions overnight
but winds will veer to the southwest overnight ahead of a cold
front. This front will move through the Big Country mid/late
morning, bringing drier air into the area and eroding the low
clouds from north to south throughout the day. Gusty north winds
will prevail in the wake of this front.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday )

Light rain was moving north of I-20, and east of an  Abilene...
Brady...Mason line at 3 PM. An upper low was west of El Paso,
moving slowly southeast.

Rain was pushing east and ending of West Central, faster than the
models indicated. Indeed at the current pace, nearly all the
present rain at 3 PM will be east or north of West Central Texas
by 6 PM. Kept a chance of showers going overnight, however, with
the El Paso low sending weak disturbances eastward. Additional
rainfall amounts will be light...ranging from a trace to a few
hundredths inch. The NAM and EC models bring isolated to scattered
light showers over West Central Texas tonight. The GFS model`s
convective algorithm is dry. The short range HRRR model brings in
scattered showers, mainly over Crockett county, the Concho Valley
and areas southward. Timing was between 9 PM and 4 AM. This may
actually be the best model as it seems to latched on an area of
lift in the water vapor loop south of El Paso.

A cold front will move through West Central Texas Sunday bringing
gusty north winds by noon. This clear low level moisture and
clouds. Sunshine in the afternoon should allow afternoon highs to
be a 2-4 degrees warmer than today`s, despite cold air advection.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

Warmer weather will make a return to West Central Texas for the
first half of the week. An area of high pressure centered over the
region on Monday, will slide off to our east by mid-week. A
thermal ridge at 850 mb will expand east over the area, allowing
high temperatures to climb from the mid 50s on Monday, to the mid
60s by Wednesday. A weak cold front approaching the area from the
north Wednesday night, will wash out near Interstate 10 during the
day Thursday, bringing cooler/drier air to the region. However,
this will be short-lived, as a lee trough develops to our west on
Friday. With a return flow developing, warmer temperatures and
increasing moisture are expected.

Precipitation chances may also increase for the southern half of
the forecast area. An upper-level disturbance currently located
over Baja California, is expected to pass by to our southeast
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This system may bring a chance of
rain to the region, mainly south of a line from San Angelo to
Brownwood. This afternoon`s numerical models have once again
shifted the track of the disturbance farther south and east,
reducing forecast confidence. However, the models have been flip-
flopping on the track for the last few model runs, and considering
the system is still largely in a data-void region, this will
likely continue through the next 48 hours. By then, the system
will enter an improving observational/upper-air network, which may
result in improved model continuity. Given the concerns mentioned
above, only minimal changes were made to the rainfall forecast for
the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  49  51  24  51  36 /  40  10   5   5   5
San Angelo  51  60  27  54  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
Junction  52  64  30  55  34 /  60  20   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KSJT 010317
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated the grids and zones to go with chance POPS across the entire
area tonight. Also, a few thunderstorms are possible across the
Northern Edwards Plateau.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Ceilings remain below 1500 ft across most of West Central TX, with
many forecast terminals experiencing IFR (or worse) conditions.
The primary rain shield has moved east of the forecast area.
However, isentropic ascent will ramp up overnight, resulting in
lowering ceilings and potential light precipitation, mainly in the
form of drizzle. This will knock cloud bases down to generally
700 ft or lower and should cause prevailing visibilities to drop
to 5 miles or less. Some locations may experience more significant
reductions in visibility. Expect poor flight conditions overnight
but winds will veer to the southwest overnight ahead of a cold
front. This front will move through the Big Country mid/late
morning, bringing drier air into the area and eroding the low
clouds from north to south throughout the day. Gusty north winds
will prevail in the wake of this front.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday )

Light rain was moving north of I-20, and east of an  Abilene...
Brady...Mason line at 3 PM. An upper low was west of El Paso,
moving slowly southeast.

Rain was pushing east and ending of West Central, faster than the
models indicated. Indeed at the current pace, nearly all the
present rain at 3 PM will be east or north of West Central Texas
by 6 PM. Kept a chance of showers going overnight, however, with
the El Paso low sending weak disturbances eastward. Additional
rainfall amounts will be light...ranging from a trace to a few
hundredths inch. The NAM and EC models bring isolated to scattered
light showers over West Central Texas tonight. The GFS model`s
convective algorithm is dry. The short range HRRR model brings in
scattered showers, mainly over Crockett county, the Concho Valley
and areas southward. Timing was between 9 PM and 4 AM. This may
actually be the best model as it seems to latched on an area of
lift in the water vapor loop south of El Paso.

A cold front will move through West Central Texas Sunday bringing
gusty north winds by noon. This clear low level moisture and
clouds. Sunshine in the afternoon should allow afternoon highs to
be a 2-4 degrees warmer than today`s, despite cold air advection.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

Warmer weather will make a return to West Central Texas for the
first half of the week. An area of high pressure centered over the
region on Monday, will slide off to our east by mid-week. A
thermal ridge at 850 mb will expand east over the area, allowing
high temperatures to climb from the mid 50s on Monday, to the mid
60s by Wednesday. A weak cold front approaching the area from the
north Wednesday night, will wash out near Interstate 10 during the
day Thursday, bringing cooler/drier air to the region. However,
this will be short-lived, as a lee trough develops to our west on
Friday. With a return flow developing, warmer temperatures and
increasing moisture are expected.

Precipitation chances may also increase for the southern half of
the forecast area. An upper-level disturbance currently located
over Baja California, is expected to pass by to our southeast
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This system may bring a chance of
rain to the region, mainly south of a line from San Angelo to
Brownwood. This afternoon`s numerical models have once again
shifted the track of the disturbance farther south and east,
reducing forecast confidence. However, the models have been flip-
flopping on the track for the last few model runs, and considering
the system is still largely in a data-void region, this will
likely continue through the next 48 hours. By then, the system
will enter an improving observational/upper-air network, which may
result in improved model continuity. Given the concerns mentioned
above, only minimal changes were made to the rainfall forecast for
the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  49  51  24  51  36 /  40  10   5   5   5
San Angelo  51  60  27  54  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
Junction  52  64  30  55  34 /  60  20   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KHGX 010317
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF SE TEXAS AT 9 PM. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON RAINFALL COVERAGE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
AREA RADAR ARE SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TX ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS HOLD THE NEXT 6 HRS AND AS RAIN
DEVELOPS THINK MOST TERMINALS WILL HIT IFR. RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT 08Z-10Z WITH CIGS BACK TO MVFR LEVELS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN
RAIN FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SE
TO SW. RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE GOOD WITH THIS TIMING. COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND THEN REACH HOUSTON
TERMINALS AROUND 00Z MON. MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE WITH FROPA.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  68  35  50  36 /  50  60  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  72  38  52  37 /  50  70  20   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  67  41  51  43 /  40  50  30   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



000
FXUS64 KSJT 010317
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated the grids and zones to go with chance POPS across the entire
area tonight. Also, a few thunderstorms are possible across the
Northern Edwards Plateau.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Ceilings remain below 1500 ft across most of West Central TX, with
many forecast terminals experiencing IFR (or worse) conditions.
The primary rain shield has moved east of the forecast area.
However, isentropic ascent will ramp up overnight, resulting in
lowering ceilings and potential light precipitation, mainly in the
form of drizzle. This will knock cloud bases down to generally
700 ft or lower and should cause prevailing visibilities to drop
to 5 miles or less. Some locations may experience more significant
reductions in visibility. Expect poor flight conditions overnight
but winds will veer to the southwest overnight ahead of a cold
front. This front will move through the Big Country mid/late
morning, bringing drier air into the area and eroding the low
clouds from north to south throughout the day. Gusty north winds
will prevail in the wake of this front.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday )

Light rain was moving north of I-20, and east of an  Abilene...
Brady...Mason line at 3 PM. An upper low was west of El Paso,
moving slowly southeast.

Rain was pushing east and ending of West Central, faster than the
models indicated. Indeed at the current pace, nearly all the
present rain at 3 PM will be east or north of West Central Texas
by 6 PM. Kept a chance of showers going overnight, however, with
the El Paso low sending weak disturbances eastward. Additional
rainfall amounts will be light...ranging from a trace to a few
hundredths inch. The NAM and EC models bring isolated to scattered
light showers over West Central Texas tonight. The GFS model`s
convective algorithm is dry. The short range HRRR model brings in
scattered showers, mainly over Crockett county, the Concho Valley
and areas southward. Timing was between 9 PM and 4 AM. This may
actually be the best model as it seems to latched on an area of
lift in the water vapor loop south of El Paso.

A cold front will move through West Central Texas Sunday bringing
gusty north winds by noon. This clear low level moisture and
clouds. Sunshine in the afternoon should allow afternoon highs to
be a 2-4 degrees warmer than today`s, despite cold air advection.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

Warmer weather will make a return to West Central Texas for the
first half of the week. An area of high pressure centered over the
region on Monday, will slide off to our east by mid-week. A
thermal ridge at 850 mb will expand east over the area, allowing
high temperatures to climb from the mid 50s on Monday, to the mid
60s by Wednesday. A weak cold front approaching the area from the
north Wednesday night, will wash out near Interstate 10 during the
day Thursday, bringing cooler/drier air to the region. However,
this will be short-lived, as a lee trough develops to our west on
Friday. With a return flow developing, warmer temperatures and
increasing moisture are expected.

Precipitation chances may also increase for the southern half of
the forecast area. An upper-level disturbance currently located
over Baja California, is expected to pass by to our southeast
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This system may bring a chance of
rain to the region, mainly south of a line from San Angelo to
Brownwood. This afternoon`s numerical models have once again
shifted the track of the disturbance farther south and east,
reducing forecast confidence. However, the models have been flip-
flopping on the track for the last few model runs, and considering
the system is still largely in a data-void region, this will
likely continue through the next 48 hours. By then, the system
will enter an improving observational/upper-air network, which may
result in improved model continuity. Given the concerns mentioned
above, only minimal changes were made to the rainfall forecast for
the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  49  51  24  51  36 /  40  10   5   5   5
San Angelo  51  60  27  54  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
Junction  52  64  30  55  34 /  60  20   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21







000
FXUS64 KHGX 010317
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF SE TEXAS AT 9 PM. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON RAINFALL COVERAGE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
AREA RADAR ARE SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TX ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS HOLD THE NEXT 6 HRS AND AS RAIN
DEVELOPS THINK MOST TERMINALS WILL HIT IFR. RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT 08Z-10Z WITH CIGS BACK TO MVFR LEVELS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN
RAIN FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SE
TO SW. RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE GOOD WITH THIS TIMING. COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND THEN REACH HOUSTON
TERMINALS AROUND 00Z MON. MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE WITH FROPA.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  68  35  50  36 /  50  60  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  72  38  52  37 /  50  70  20   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  67  41  51  43 /  40  50  30   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010317
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF SE TEXAS AT 9 PM. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON RAINFALL COVERAGE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
AREA RADAR ARE SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TX ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS HOLD THE NEXT 6 HRS AND AS RAIN
DEVELOPS THINK MOST TERMINALS WILL HIT IFR. RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT 08Z-10Z WITH CIGS BACK TO MVFR LEVELS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN
RAIN FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SE
TO SW. RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE GOOD WITH THIS TIMING. COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND THEN REACH HOUSTON
TERMINALS AROUND 00Z MON. MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE WITH FROPA.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  68  35  50  36 /  50  60  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  72  38  52  37 /  50  70  20   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  67  41  51  43 /  40  50  30   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010317
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF SE TEXAS AT 9 PM. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON RAINFALL COVERAGE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
AREA RADAR ARE SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TX ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS HOLD THE NEXT 6 HRS AND AS RAIN
DEVELOPS THINK MOST TERMINALS WILL HIT IFR. RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT 08Z-10Z WITH CIGS BACK TO MVFR LEVELS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN
RAIN FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SE
TO SW. RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE GOOD WITH THIS TIMING. COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND THEN REACH HOUSTON
TERMINALS AROUND 00Z MON. MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE WITH FROPA.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  68  35  50  36 /  50  60  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  72  38  52  37 /  50  70  20   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  67  41  51  43 /  40  50  30   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010317
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST AND THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF SE TEXAS AT 9 PM. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON RAINFALL COVERAGE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION...
AREA RADAR ARE SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TX ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS HOLD THE NEXT 6 HRS AND AS RAIN
DEVELOPS THINK MOST TERMINALS WILL HIT IFR. RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT 08Z-10Z WITH CIGS BACK TO MVFR LEVELS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN
RAIN FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SE
TO SW. RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE GOOD WITH THIS TIMING. COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND THEN REACH HOUSTON
TERMINALS AROUND 00Z MON. MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE WITH FROPA.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  68  35  50  36 /  50  60  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  72  38  52  37 /  50  70  20   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  67  41  51  43 /  40  50  30   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KLUB 010145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
745 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE PULLED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND
SUNRISE BUT LIKELIHOOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPECT AREAWIDE AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING
BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS FILTER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING FURTHER DRYING THE AIRMASS AND TRENDING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /   0  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99




000
FXUS64 KLUB 010145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
745 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE PULLED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND
SUNRISE BUT LIKELIHOOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPECT AREAWIDE AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING
BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS FILTER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING FURTHER DRYING THE AIRMASS AND TRENDING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /   0  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99



000
FXUS64 KLUB 010145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
745 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE PULLED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND
SUNRISE BUT LIKELIHOOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPECT AREAWIDE AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING
BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS FILTER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING FURTHER DRYING THE AIRMASS AND TRENDING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /   0  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99




000
FXUS64 KLUB 010145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
745 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE PULLED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND
SUNRISE BUT LIKELIHOOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPECT AREAWIDE AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING
BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS FILTER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING FURTHER DRYING THE AIRMASS AND TRENDING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /   0  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99



000
FXUS64 KEWX 010142
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
742 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
RAIN IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE A RESPITE FROM RAIN FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CHIHUAHUA ARRIVES. RAINFALL FROM EARLIER
TODAY...WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION OFF THE GULF...AND MID-
LEVEL DRYING SHOULD PROMOTE BOTH RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTION FOG.
WE THINK THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG...BUT THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ALONG
THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AND IN THE HILL COUNTRY. IN ADDITION TO
REDUCING POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...WE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AND RE-ORIENTED POPS
AND THE MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY 12Z TO 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES PER THE SPC DISCUSSION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

STEADY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AT DRT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
I-35 TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN IFR/MVFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL SITES. EXPECT
VSBYS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
4-6Z WITH DRT AND SAT/SSF DETERIORATING TO LIFR BETWEEN 10-11Z AS
NICE ADVECTION AND RADIATION FOG EVENT SETS UP. LESS CONFIDENT
THAT AUS WILL HAVE LIFR VSBYS SINCE RAIN MAY REDEVELOP OVER HILL
COUNTRY AND PREVENT FOG FROM SETTLING IN...BUT HAVE MENTIONED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THEM BETWEEN 11-15Z. FOG SHOULD RAPIDLY LIFT WITH
INITIAL WIND SHIFT AROUND 15-16Z AT ALL SITES AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL BY 18-19Z. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT SAT/SSF/AUS AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND 21-00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST WATER VAPOR CHANNEL
PHOTOS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT LOWER LEVEL...A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS PUSHING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 5KFT OF 40 TO 50 MPH
BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE...IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A NEW
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE WAVE NEARS...EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...FIRST AFFECTING THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THEN THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS
WAVE COULD BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH FEW LOCATIONS GETTING UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH. ONCE THIS WAVES PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WILL
HAVE A BREAK FROM THE MODERATE RAINS WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN ZONES.
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARTS OF THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR OTHER AREAS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER AIRMASS
AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY...MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE I-35 AND LOWER 40S OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY AND COOL ON MONDAY WITH HIGH ONLY IN THE 50S. BY
TUESDAY...SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL FINALLY TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  68  36  51  37 /  50  30  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  69  37  51  33 /  50  40  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  71  38  53  36 /  50  30  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  64  32  50  34 /  30  30  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  69  41  56  40 /  30  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  65  33  49  34 /  50  30  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  73  39  56  37 /  30  30  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  69  37  51  35 /  50  30  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  70  38  51  36 /  50  40  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  70  39  54  38 /  30  30  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  73  40  55  38 /  30  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KEWX 010142
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
742 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
RAIN IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE A RESPITE FROM RAIN FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS UNTIL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CHIHUAHUA ARRIVES. RAINFALL FROM EARLIER
TODAY...WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION OFF THE GULF...AND MID-
LEVEL DRYING SHOULD PROMOTE BOTH RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTION FOG.
WE THINK THERE IS ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG...BUT THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ALONG
THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT AND IN THE HILL COUNTRY. IN ADDITION TO
REDUCING POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...WE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AND RE-ORIENTED POPS
AND THE MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY 12Z TO 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES PER THE SPC DISCUSSION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

STEADY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AT DRT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
I-35 TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN IFR/MVFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL SITES. EXPECT
VSBYS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
4-6Z WITH DRT AND SAT/SSF DETERIORATING TO LIFR BETWEEN 10-11Z AS
NICE ADVECTION AND RADIATION FOG EVENT SETS UP. LESS CONFIDENT
THAT AUS WILL HAVE LIFR VSBYS SINCE RAIN MAY REDEVELOP OVER HILL
COUNTRY AND PREVENT FOG FROM SETTLING IN...BUT HAVE MENTIONED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THEM BETWEEN 11-15Z. FOG SHOULD RAPIDLY LIFT WITH
INITIAL WIND SHIFT AROUND 15-16Z AT ALL SITES AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL BY 18-19Z. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT SAT/SSF/AUS AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND 21-00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST WATER VAPOR CHANNEL
PHOTOS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT LOWER LEVEL...A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS PUSHING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 5KFT OF 40 TO 50 MPH
BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE...IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A NEW
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE WAVE NEARS...EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...FIRST AFFECTING THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THEN THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS
WAVE COULD BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH FEW LOCATIONS GETTING UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH. ONCE THIS WAVES PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WILL
HAVE A BREAK FROM THE MODERATE RAINS WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN ZONES.
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARTS OF THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR OTHER AREAS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER AIRMASS
AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY...MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE I-35 AND LOWER 40S OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY AND COOL ON MONDAY WITH HIGH ONLY IN THE 50S. BY
TUESDAY...SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL FINALLY TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  68  36  51  37 /  50  30  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  69  37  51  33 /  50  40  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  71  38  53  36 /  50  30  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  64  32  50  34 /  30  30  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  69  41  56  40 /  30  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  65  33  49  34 /  50  30  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  73  39  56  37 /  30  30  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  69  37  51  35 /  50  30  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  70  38  51  36 /  50  40  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  70  39  54  38 /  30  30  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  73  40  55  38 /  30  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KSJT 010038
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
638 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CEILINGS REMAIN BELOW 1500 FT ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TX, WITH
MANY FORECAST TERMINALS EXPERIENCING IFR (OR WORSE) CONDITIONS.
THE PRIMARY RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER, ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN
LOWERING CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE. THIS WILL KNOCK CLOUD BASES DOWN TO GENERALLY
700 FT OR LOWER AND SHOULD CAUSE PREVAILING VISIBILITIES TO DROP
TO 5 MILES OR LESS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MORE SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. EXPECT POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY MID/LATE
MORNING, BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AND ERODING THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

JOHNSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY )

LIGHT RAIN WAS MOVING NORTH OF I-20, AND EAST OF AN  ABILENE...
BRADY...MASON LINE AT 3 PM. AN UPPER LOW WAS WEST OF EL PASO,
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.

RAIN WAS PUSHING EAST AND ENDING OF WEST CENTRAL, FASTER THAN THE
MODELS INDICATED. INDEED AT THE CURRENT PACE, NEARLY ALL THE
PRESENT RAIN AT 3 PM WILL BE EAST OR NORTH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
BY 6 PM. KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, WITH
THE EL PASO LOW SENDING WEAK DISTURBANCES EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS INCH. THE NAM AND EC MODELS BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THE GFS MODEL`S
CONVECTIVE ALGORITHM IS DRY. THE SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL BRINGS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER CROCKETT COUNTY, THE CONCHO VALLEY
AND AREAS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WAS BETWEEN 9 PM AND 4 AM. THIS MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE BEST MODEL AS IT SEEMS TO LATCHED ON AN AREA OF
LIFT IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SOUTH OF EL PASO.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY BRINGING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS BY NOON. THIS CLEAR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS. SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
BE A 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY`S, DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)

WARMER WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY, WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MID-WEEK. A
THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 MB WILL EXPAND EAST OVER THE AREA, ALLOWING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB FROM THE MID 50S ON MONDAY, TO THE MID
60S BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WILL WASH OUT NEAR INTERSTATE 10 DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY, BRINGING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST ON
FRIDAY. WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING, WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY ALSO INCREASE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA, IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE REGION, MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAN ANGELO TO
BROWNWOOD. THIS AFTERNOON`S NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST,
REDUCING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP-
FLOPPING ON THE TRACK FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS, AND CONSIDERING
THE SYSTEM IS STILL LARGELY IN A DATA-VOID REGION, THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY THEN, THE SYSTEM
WILL ENTER AN IMPROVING OBSERVATIONAL/UPPER-AIR NETWORK, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN IMPROVED MODEL CONTINUITY. GIVEN THE CONCERNS MENTIONED
ABOVE, ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE          49  51  24  51  36 /  40  10   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO       51  60  27  54  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
JUNCTION         52  64  30  55  34 /  60  20   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KSJT 010038
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
638 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CEILINGS REMAIN BELOW 1500 FT ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TX, WITH
MANY FORECAST TERMINALS EXPERIENCING IFR (OR WORSE) CONDITIONS.
THE PRIMARY RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER, ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN
LOWERING CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE. THIS WILL KNOCK CLOUD BASES DOWN TO GENERALLY
700 FT OR LOWER AND SHOULD CAUSE PREVAILING VISIBILITIES TO DROP
TO 5 MILES OR LESS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MORE SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. EXPECT POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY MID/LATE
MORNING, BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AND ERODING THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

JOHNSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY )

LIGHT RAIN WAS MOVING NORTH OF I-20, AND EAST OF AN  ABILENE...
BRADY...MASON LINE AT 3 PM. AN UPPER LOW WAS WEST OF EL PASO,
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.

RAIN WAS PUSHING EAST AND ENDING OF WEST CENTRAL, FASTER THAN THE
MODELS INDICATED. INDEED AT THE CURRENT PACE, NEARLY ALL THE
PRESENT RAIN AT 3 PM WILL BE EAST OR NORTH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
BY 6 PM. KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, WITH
THE EL PASO LOW SENDING WEAK DISTURBANCES EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS INCH. THE NAM AND EC MODELS BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THE GFS MODEL`S
CONVECTIVE ALGORITHM IS DRY. THE SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL BRINGS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER CROCKETT COUNTY, THE CONCHO VALLEY
AND AREAS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WAS BETWEEN 9 PM AND 4 AM. THIS MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE BEST MODEL AS IT SEEMS TO LATCHED ON AN AREA OF
LIFT IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SOUTH OF EL PASO.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY BRINGING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS BY NOON. THIS CLEAR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS. SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
BE A 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY`S, DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)

WARMER WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY, WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MID-WEEK. A
THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 MB WILL EXPAND EAST OVER THE AREA, ALLOWING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB FROM THE MID 50S ON MONDAY, TO THE MID
60S BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WILL WASH OUT NEAR INTERSTATE 10 DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY, BRINGING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST ON
FRIDAY. WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING, WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY ALSO INCREASE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA, IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE REGION, MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAN ANGELO TO
BROWNWOOD. THIS AFTERNOON`S NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST,
REDUCING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP-
FLOPPING ON THE TRACK FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS, AND CONSIDERING
THE SYSTEM IS STILL LARGELY IN A DATA-VOID REGION, THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY THEN, THE SYSTEM
WILL ENTER AN IMPROVING OBSERVATIONAL/UPPER-AIR NETWORK, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN IMPROVED MODEL CONTINUITY. GIVEN THE CONCERNS MENTIONED
ABOVE, ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE          49  51  24  51  36 /  40  10   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO       51  60  27  54  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
JUNCTION         52  64  30  55  34 /  60  20   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25







000
FXUS64 KSJT 010038
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
638 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CEILINGS REMAIN BELOW 1500 FT ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TX, WITH
MANY FORECAST TERMINALS EXPERIENCING IFR (OR WORSE) CONDITIONS.
THE PRIMARY RAIN SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER, ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN
LOWERING CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE. THIS WILL KNOCK CLOUD BASES DOWN TO GENERALLY
700 FT OR LOWER AND SHOULD CAUSE PREVAILING VISIBILITIES TO DROP
TO 5 MILES OR LESS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MORE SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. EXPECT POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
BUT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY MID/LATE
MORNING, BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AND ERODING THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

JOHNSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY )

LIGHT RAIN WAS MOVING NORTH OF I-20, AND EAST OF AN  ABILENE...
BRADY...MASON LINE AT 3 PM. AN UPPER LOW WAS WEST OF EL PASO,
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.

RAIN WAS PUSHING EAST AND ENDING OF WEST CENTRAL, FASTER THAN THE
MODELS INDICATED. INDEED AT THE CURRENT PACE, NEARLY ALL THE
PRESENT RAIN AT 3 PM WILL BE EAST OR NORTH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
BY 6 PM. KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER, WITH
THE EL PASO LOW SENDING WEAK DISTURBANCES EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...RANGING FROM A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS INCH. THE NAM AND EC MODELS BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THE GFS MODEL`S
CONVECTIVE ALGORITHM IS DRY. THE SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL BRINGS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER CROCKETT COUNTY, THE CONCHO VALLEY
AND AREAS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WAS BETWEEN 9 PM AND 4 AM. THIS MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE BEST MODEL AS IT SEEMS TO LATCHED ON AN AREA OF
LIFT IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SOUTH OF EL PASO.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY BRINGING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS BY NOON. THIS CLEAR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS. SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
BE A 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY`S, DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)

WARMER WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY, WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST BY MID-WEEK. A
THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 MB WILL EXPAND EAST OVER THE AREA, ALLOWING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB FROM THE MID 50S ON MONDAY, TO THE MID
60S BY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WILL WASH OUT NEAR INTERSTATE 10 DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY, BRINGING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST ON
FRIDAY. WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING, WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY ALSO INCREASE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA, IS EXPECTED TO PASS BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE REGION, MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAN ANGELO TO
BROWNWOOD. THIS AFTERNOON`S NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE ONCE AGAIN
SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST,
REDUCING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP-
FLOPPING ON THE TRACK FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS, AND CONSIDERING
THE SYSTEM IS STILL LARGELY IN A DATA-VOID REGION, THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY THEN, THE SYSTEM
WILL ENTER AN IMPROVING OBSERVATIONAL/UPPER-AIR NETWORK, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN IMPROVED MODEL CONTINUITY. GIVEN THE CONCERNS MENTIONED
ABOVE, ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE RAINFALL FORECAST FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE          49  51  24  51  36 /  40  10   5   5   5
SAN ANGELO       51  60  27  54  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
JUNCTION         52  64  30  55  34 /  60  20   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25







000
FXUS64 KEWX 010023
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

STEADY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AT DRT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
I-35 TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN IFR/MVFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL SITES. EXPECT
VSBYS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
4-6Z WITH DRT AND SAT/SSF DETERIORATING TO LIFR BETWEEN 10-11Z AS
NICE ADVECTION AND RADIATION FOG EVENT SETS UP. LESS CONFIDENT
THAT AUS WILL HAVE LIFR VSBYS SINCE RAIN MAY REDEVELOP OVER HILL
COUNTRY AND PREVENT FOG FROM SETTLING IN...BUT HAVE MENTIONED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THEM BETWEEN 11-15Z. FOG SHOULD RAPIDLY LIFT WITH
INITIAL WIND SHIFT AROUND 15-16Z AT ALL SITES AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL BY 18-19Z. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT SAT/SSF/AUS AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND 21-00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST WATER VAPOR CHANNEL
PHOTOS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT LOWER LEVEL...A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS PUSHING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 5KFT OF 40 TO 50 MPH
BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE...IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A NEW
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE WAVE NEARS...EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...FIRST AFFECTING THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THEN THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS
WAVE COULD BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH FEW LOCATIONS GETTING UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH. ONCE THIS WAVES PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WILL
HAVE A BREAK FROM THE MODERATE RAINS WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN ZONES.
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARTS OF THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR OTHER AREAS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER AIRMASS
AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY...MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE I-35 AND LOWER 40S OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY AND COOL ON MONDAY WITH HIGH ONLY IN THE 50S. BY
TUESDAY...SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL FINALLY TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  68  36  51  37 /  70  40  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  69  37  51  33 /  70  40  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  71  38  53  36 /  70  40  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  64  32  50  34 /  70  30  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  69  41  56  40 /  30  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  65  33  49  34 /  70  40  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  73  39  56  37 /  60  20  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  69  37  51  35 /  70  40  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  70  38  51  36 /  60  50  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  70  39  54  38 /  70  30  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  73  40  55  38 /  70  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18/00
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KEWX 010023
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

STEADY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AT DRT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
I-35 TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN IFR/MVFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL SITES. EXPECT
VSBYS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
4-6Z WITH DRT AND SAT/SSF DETERIORATING TO LIFR BETWEEN 10-11Z AS
NICE ADVECTION AND RADIATION FOG EVENT SETS UP. LESS CONFIDENT
THAT AUS WILL HAVE LIFR VSBYS SINCE RAIN MAY REDEVELOP OVER HILL
COUNTRY AND PREVENT FOG FROM SETTLING IN...BUT HAVE MENTIONED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THEM BETWEEN 11-15Z. FOG SHOULD RAPIDLY LIFT WITH
INITIAL WIND SHIFT AROUND 15-16Z AT ALL SITES AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL BY 18-19Z. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT SAT/SSF/AUS AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND 21-00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST WATER VAPOR CHANNEL
PHOTOS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT LOWER LEVEL...A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS PUSHING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 5KFT OF 40 TO 50 MPH
BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE...IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A NEW
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE WAVE NEARS...EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...FIRST AFFECTING THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THEN THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS
WAVE COULD BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH FEW LOCATIONS GETTING UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH. ONCE THIS WAVES PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WILL
HAVE A BREAK FROM THE MODERATE RAINS WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN ZONES.
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARTS OF THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR OTHER AREAS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER AIRMASS
AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY...MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE I-35 AND LOWER 40S OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY AND COOL ON MONDAY WITH HIGH ONLY IN THE 50S. BY
TUESDAY...SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL FINALLY TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  68  36  51  37 /  70  40  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  69  37  51  33 /  70  40  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  71  38  53  36 /  70  40  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  64  32  50  34 /  70  30  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  69  41  56  40 /  30  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  65  33  49  34 /  70  40  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  73  39  56  37 /  60  20  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  69  37  51  35 /  70  40  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  70  38  51  36 /  60  50  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  70  39  54  38 /  70  30  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  73  40  55  38 /  70  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18/00
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 010023
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

STEADY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AT DRT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
I-35 TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN IFR/MVFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL SITES. EXPECT
VSBYS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
4-6Z WITH DRT AND SAT/SSF DETERIORATING TO LIFR BETWEEN 10-11Z AS
NICE ADVECTION AND RADIATION FOG EVENT SETS UP. LESS CONFIDENT
THAT AUS WILL HAVE LIFR VSBYS SINCE RAIN MAY REDEVELOP OVER HILL
COUNTRY AND PREVENT FOG FROM SETTLING IN...BUT HAVE MENTIONED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THEM BETWEEN 11-15Z. FOG SHOULD RAPIDLY LIFT WITH
INITIAL WIND SHIFT AROUND 15-16Z AT ALL SITES AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL BY 18-19Z. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT SAT/SSF/AUS AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND 21-00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST WATER VAPOR CHANNEL
PHOTOS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT LOWER LEVEL...A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS PUSHING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 5KFT OF 40 TO 50 MPH
BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE...IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A NEW
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE WAVE NEARS...EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...FIRST AFFECTING THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THEN THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS
WAVE COULD BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH FEW LOCATIONS GETTING UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH. ONCE THIS WAVES PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WILL
HAVE A BREAK FROM THE MODERATE RAINS WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN ZONES.
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARTS OF THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR OTHER AREAS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER AIRMASS
AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY...MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE I-35 AND LOWER 40S OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY AND COOL ON MONDAY WITH HIGH ONLY IN THE 50S. BY
TUESDAY...SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL FINALLY TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  68  36  51  37 /  70  40  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  69  37  51  33 /  70  40  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  71  38  53  36 /  70  40  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  64  32  50  34 /  70  30  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  69  41  56  40 /  30  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  65  33  49  34 /  70  40  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  73  39  56  37 /  60  20  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  69  37  51  35 /  70  40  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  70  38  51  36 /  60  50  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  70  39  54  38 /  70  30  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  73  40  55  38 /  70  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18/00
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KEWX 010023
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
623 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

STEADY RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AT DRT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
I-35 TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN IFR/MVFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL SITES. EXPECT
VSBYS TO GRADUALLY FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
4-6Z WITH DRT AND SAT/SSF DETERIORATING TO LIFR BETWEEN 10-11Z AS
NICE ADVECTION AND RADIATION FOG EVENT SETS UP. LESS CONFIDENT
THAT AUS WILL HAVE LIFR VSBYS SINCE RAIN MAY REDEVELOP OVER HILL
COUNTRY AND PREVENT FOG FROM SETTLING IN...BUT HAVE MENTIONED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THEM BETWEEN 11-15Z. FOG SHOULD RAPIDLY LIFT WITH
INITIAL WIND SHIFT AROUND 15-16Z AT ALL SITES AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL BY 18-19Z. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT SAT/SSF/AUS AFTER COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND 21-00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST WATER VAPOR CHANNEL
PHOTOS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT LOWER LEVEL...A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS PUSHING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 5KFT OF 40 TO 50 MPH
BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE...IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A NEW
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE WAVE NEARS...EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...FIRST AFFECTING THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THEN THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS
WAVE COULD BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH FEW LOCATIONS GETTING UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH. ONCE THIS WAVES PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WILL
HAVE A BREAK FROM THE MODERATE RAINS WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN ZONES.
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARTS OF THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR OTHER AREAS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER AIRMASS
AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY...MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE I-35 AND LOWER 40S OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY AND COOL ON MONDAY WITH HIGH ONLY IN THE 50S. BY
TUESDAY...SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL FINALLY TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  68  36  51  37 /  70  40  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  69  37  51  33 /  70  40  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  71  38  53  36 /  70  40  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  64  32  50  34 /  70  30  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  69  41  56  40 /  30  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  65  33  49  34 /  70  40  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  73  39  56  37 /  60  20  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  69  37  51  35 /  70  40  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  70  38  51  36 /  60  50  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  70  39  54  38 /  70  30  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  73  40  55  38 /  70  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18/00
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KHGX 312350
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA RADAR ARE SHOWING RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TX ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS HOLD THE NEXT 6 HRS AND AS RAIN
DEVELOPS THINK MOST TERMINALS WILL HIT IFR. RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT 08Z-10Z WITH CIGS BACK TO MVFR LEVELS. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN
RAIN FOR LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS TURNING SE
TO SW. RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM TO BE GOOD WITH THIS TIMING. COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KCLL AROUND 21Z AND THEN REACH HOUSTON
TERMINALS AROUND 00Z MON. MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH THE
FRONT. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE WITH FROPA.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  58  68  35  50 /  40  60  60  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  58  72  38  52 /  20  50  70  20   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  58  67  41  51 /  20  40  50  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39



000
FXUS64 KCRP 312350 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
550 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BRIEFING.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCTNG VFR THIS EVENING FOR MAIN S TX TERMINALS. LIGHT
RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO XPAND EWRD ACROSS S TX BUT ASSOCIATED
CIGS REMAIN HIGH AND ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN VFR THRU THE EVENING. RAIN
SHIELD SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASING REGARDING FLIGHT RULES.
HAVE VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME REDUCTION IN CIGS/VSBYS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
LATE TONIGHT...MOST IF NOT ALL OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR AS DRIER
LLVL AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SRLY WINDS 5 TO 15
KTS TONIGHT /GREATEST AT KCRP/ BECOMING WRLY MID/LATE MRNG SUN
THRU SUN AFTN. STRONGER WINDS TO EXIST TONIGHT JUST ABOVE THE SFC AT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI BUT VALUES NOT XPCTD TO BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST YET
TO INCLUDE MENTION OF NON CONVECTIVE LLWS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES
JUST BEYOND VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  75  46  53  44  /  50  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          59  74  41  52  40  /  50  40  20  10  10
LAREDO            59  76  48  54  42  /  40  10  10  10  30
ALICE             60  77  46  54  42  /  60  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          62  68  45  52  46  /  40  30  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  73  45  55  41  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  78  47  54  43  /  50  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       62  70  47  53  47  /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KAMA 312346 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
546 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN IFR
CIGS AT KAMA AND MVFR CIGS AT KDHT THIS EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SCT LOW
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. POSSIBLE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO
IMPACT MAINLY THE KGUY/KDHT TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THIS FORECAST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS
SUSTAINED AND BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A PREDOMINATELY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS PEEL
OUT LATER TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOLISH BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND H85 TEMPS PUSH TO AROUND 12C BY TUE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING TEMPS CRASHING DOWN BRIEFLY ON WED AND THU
BEFORE A POTENTIALLY BIG WARMUP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MED RANGE
MODELS HAVE H85 TEMPS FROM 17-21C BY NEXT SATURDAY. IF THESE
READINGS PAN OUT, HIGHS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE 70S ON SAT.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KAMA 312346 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
546 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN IFR
CIGS AT KAMA AND MVFR CIGS AT KDHT THIS EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SCT LOW
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. POSSIBLE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO
IMPACT MAINLY THE KGUY/KDHT TERMINALS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THIS FORECAST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS
SUSTAINED AND BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A PREDOMINATELY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS PEEL
OUT LATER TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOLISH BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND H85 TEMPS PUSH TO AROUND 12C BY TUE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING TEMPS CRASHING DOWN BRIEFLY ON WED AND THU
BEFORE A POTENTIALLY BIG WARMUP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MED RANGE
MODELS HAVE H85 TEMPS FROM 17-21C BY NEXT SATURDAY. IF THESE
READINGS PAN OUT, HIGHS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE 70S ON SAT.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KBRO 312345
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
545 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MVFR THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 15Z WITH
LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT...STRONG FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. BROADLY DIFFLUENT JET ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THAT LOW IS
LEADING TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MODESTLY STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES OVER THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND THAT IS INTERACTING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA TO PRODUCE A RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
MEXICO ARE HELPING GENERATE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO.

TONIGHT...
SUBTLE RIPPLES IN SOUTHWESTERLY JET FLOW OVER MEXICO ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AMID BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL WORK WITH STEEPENING
UPPER LAPSE RATES TO HELP SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW OVERALL BUT A
HEAVIER SHOWER COULD BRING A QUICK 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.

SUNDAY...
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WHICH MAY WORK WITH A FEW BREAKS IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO PRODUCE RELATIVELY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 80 DEGREES AND KEPT RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO NIL
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SFC-850 DRYING THAT LAYER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
WINDS SPEEDS WILL BACK OFF AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE
EVENING AND PAINTED AN AREA OF FOG STARTING EARLY IN THE EVENING
NEAR THE COAST AND IN PARTS OF THE METRO AREA. THE STRONG FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH IN THE LATE EVENING AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT WIND WILL VERY LIKELY BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT FROM
THIS FRONT ASIDE FROM THE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A VERY STRONG GRADIENT PUSHING ACROSS WITH THE FRONT AND
STRONG SFC- 850MB COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN 40 TO 45
KNOT WINDS IN THAT LAYER MAKING GUSTS STRONGER. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS ON LAND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...AROUND
25 MPH NEAR THE COAST AND THEN STRONGER OVER THE WATER. BAY AND
NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOW 60S...
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE REPORT OF BUOY 42020 SO EXPECTING OBSERVED
WIND SPEEDS ON ALL WATERS TO BE CLOSER THAN PREVIOUS FRONTS THAT
HAD VERY COLD NEARSHORE WATER PRESENT. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28
TO 32 KNOTS AND GUSTS PUSHING 35 TO 40 LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR ALL WATERS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES
FOR PART OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SUPPORTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL HANG BACK AND BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTING AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO THE FIRST TWO TO
THREE DAYS OF THE WEEK...REPLEAT WITH LOW OVERCAST SKIES...LIGHT
RAIN...AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING ON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST BY DAWN MONDAY. WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER...IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S WITH MID TO UPPER 40S MONDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE AREAS WITH CHANCES
WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL DECREASE MONDAY AFTER THE
FRONT AS SOME DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE MAIN FRONT IN FROM THE
NORTH...BEFORE A GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP OCCURS.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
50S...WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS NOT DECREASING THAT MUCH...JUST A
FEW DEGREES AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CHANCES OCCUR AND THE
COLDER AIR QUICKLY MODIFIES. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID
LEVEL LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND
RAINY CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN THE THURSDAY FRONT BEING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND...WITHOUT
ANYTHING TO THE WEST...A MUCH DRIER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATER IN
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MORE MODERATE WINDS
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND VERY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUNDAY
EVENING. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
VERY ROUGH BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL HANG ON THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE OFFSHORE LOW...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST BEYOND THE LOCALLY
FORECASTED MARINE ZONES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/60




000
FXUS64 KBRO 312345
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
545 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. BEST TIME FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MVFR THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER 15Z WITH
LESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT...STRONG FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. BROADLY DIFFLUENT JET ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THAT LOW IS
LEADING TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MODESTLY STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES OVER THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND THAT IS INTERACTING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA TO PRODUCE A RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
MEXICO ARE HELPING GENERATE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO.

TONIGHT...
SUBTLE RIPPLES IN SOUTHWESTERLY JET FLOW OVER MEXICO ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AMID BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL WORK WITH STEEPENING
UPPER LAPSE RATES TO HELP SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW OVERALL BUT A
HEAVIER SHOWER COULD BRING A QUICK 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.

SUNDAY...
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WHICH MAY WORK WITH A FEW BREAKS IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO PRODUCE RELATIVELY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 80 DEGREES AND KEPT RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO NIL
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SFC-850 DRYING THAT LAYER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
WINDS SPEEDS WILL BACK OFF AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE
EVENING AND PAINTED AN AREA OF FOG STARTING EARLY IN THE EVENING
NEAR THE COAST AND IN PARTS OF THE METRO AREA. THE STRONG FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH IN THE LATE EVENING AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT WIND WILL VERY LIKELY BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT FROM
THIS FRONT ASIDE FROM THE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A VERY STRONG GRADIENT PUSHING ACROSS WITH THE FRONT AND
STRONG SFC- 850MB COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN 40 TO 45
KNOT WINDS IN THAT LAYER MAKING GUSTS STRONGER. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS ON LAND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...AROUND
25 MPH NEAR THE COAST AND THEN STRONGER OVER THE WATER. BAY AND
NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOW 60S...
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE REPORT OF BUOY 42020 SO EXPECTING OBSERVED
WIND SPEEDS ON ALL WATERS TO BE CLOSER THAN PREVIOUS FRONTS THAT
HAD VERY COLD NEARSHORE WATER PRESENT. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28
TO 32 KNOTS AND GUSTS PUSHING 35 TO 40 LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR ALL WATERS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES
FOR PART OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SUPPORTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL HANG BACK AND BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTING AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO THE FIRST TWO TO
THREE DAYS OF THE WEEK...REPLEAT WITH LOW OVERCAST SKIES...LIGHT
RAIN...AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING ON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST BY DAWN MONDAY. WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER...IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S WITH MID TO UPPER 40S MONDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE AREAS WITH CHANCES
WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL DECREASE MONDAY AFTER THE
FRONT AS SOME DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE MAIN FRONT IN FROM THE
NORTH...BEFORE A GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP OCCURS.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
50S...WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS NOT DECREASING THAT MUCH...JUST A
FEW DEGREES AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CHANCES OCCUR AND THE
COLDER AIR QUICKLY MODIFIES. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID
LEVEL LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND
RAINY CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN THE THURSDAY FRONT BEING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND...WITHOUT
ANYTHING TO THE WEST...A MUCH DRIER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATER IN
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MORE MODERATE WINDS
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND VERY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUNDAY
EVENING. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
VERY ROUGH BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL HANG ON THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE OFFSHORE LOW...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST BEYOND THE LOCALLY
FORECASTED MARINE ZONES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/60



000
FXUS64 KLUB 312341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPECT AREAWIDE AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING
BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS FILTER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING FURTHER DRYING THE AIRMASS AND TRENDING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /  10  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  40  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26




000
FXUS64 KLUB 312341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPECT AREAWIDE AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING
BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS FILTER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING FURTHER DRYING THE AIRMASS AND TRENDING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /  10  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  40  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26




000
FXUS64 KLUB 312341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPECT AREAWIDE AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING
BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS FILTER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING FURTHER DRYING THE AIRMASS AND TRENDING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /  10  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  40  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26




000
FXUS64 KLUB 312341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPECT AREAWIDE AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING
BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS FILTER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING FURTHER DRYING THE AIRMASS AND TRENDING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /  10  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  40  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26




000
FXUS64 KFWD 312339
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
539 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
MODERATE RAIN BAND WILL MOVE OVER TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BUT EXPECT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF RAIN TO WANE BY 3Z.
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY...BUT HI-
RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF TAF SITES.
STILL WILL RETAIN A MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY UPDATES.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS PREVAIL NOW AND THESE WILL FALL TO IFR THIS
EVENING AS SOUTHERLY MOIST/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. WE MAY NEED
TO DROP FORECAST CIGS BELOW 400 FT OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
THIS IS LOW. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW BEFORE DAYBREAK
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY IMPROVING VSBY/CIGS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z WITH MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING A FEW HOURS IN ITS WAKE. VFR WITH N/NW WINDS AT 20G30KT
WILL THEN PREVAIL BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND CA/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND TONIGHT...THEN STALL
AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE RACING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AS NOTED BY THE
8-10 DEG/C 850MB DEW POINTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVING NORTHWARD.
A GOOD MID LEVEL FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
700-500MB IN ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT NOTED EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER WEST TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE DRY SLOT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER
SOUTH OF I-20...BUT IF THE DRY SLOT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED... THEN THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED OVERNIGHT.
LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD BE THE ONLY CONCERN WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVELS.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BRINGING BRISK NORTH WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD WESTERN MEXICO IN WAKE
OF THE EXITING CENTRAL U.S SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
END WELL BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AREAS MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
AND ONLY IN THE 40S AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTH WINDS READILY RETURN ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOME AND
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AND MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S EAST
TO THE 60S WEST. THE LARGE SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DOES AMPLIFY BY MID
WEEK AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND TRACK IT
EAST TOWARD SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE BROAD YET
RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CREEP AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
COOL AND DRY. ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY NOT BEING VERY RICH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE
SOUTH TEXAS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AND BRISK NORTH WINDS. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT STAY FOR LONG
AS RIDGING ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  58  30  44  35 /  90  50   0   0   0
WACO, TX              53  63  32  47  34 /  80  40   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             46  57  27  42  30 /  90  70   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            48  56  28  44  32 /  90  40   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  56  28  43  31 /  90  60   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            51  58  30  44  35 /  90  60   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           49  62  29  44  32 /  90  70   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         54  63  31  45  34 /  80  60   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            53  63  33  48  35 /  70  40  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  53  28  46  33 /  80  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 312339
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
539 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
MODERATE RAIN BAND WILL MOVE OVER TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BUT EXPECT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF RAIN TO WANE BY 3Z.
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY...BUT HI-
RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF TAF SITES.
STILL WILL RETAIN A MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY UPDATES.

OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS PREVAIL NOW AND THESE WILL FALL TO IFR THIS
EVENING AS SOUTHERLY MOIST/WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. WE MAY NEED
TO DROP FORECAST CIGS BELOW 400 FT OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
THIS IS LOW. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW BEFORE DAYBREAK
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY IMPROVING VSBY/CIGS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z WITH MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING A FEW HOURS IN ITS WAKE. VFR WITH N/NW WINDS AT 20G30KT
WILL THEN PREVAIL BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND CA/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND TONIGHT...THEN STALL
AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE RACING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AS NOTED BY THE
8-10 DEG/C 850MB DEW POINTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVING NORTHWARD.
A GOOD MID LEVEL FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
700-500MB IN ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT NOTED EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER WEST TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE DRY SLOT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER
SOUTH OF I-20...BUT IF THE DRY SLOT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED... THEN THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED OVERNIGHT.
LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD BE THE ONLY CONCERN WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVELS.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BRINGING BRISK NORTH WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD WESTERN MEXICO IN WAKE
OF THE EXITING CENTRAL U.S SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
END WELL BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AREAS MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
AND ONLY IN THE 40S AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTH WINDS READILY RETURN ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOME AND
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AND MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S EAST
TO THE 60S WEST. THE LARGE SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DOES AMPLIFY BY MID
WEEK AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND TRACK IT
EAST TOWARD SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE BROAD YET
RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CREEP AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
COOL AND DRY. ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY NOT BEING VERY RICH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE
SOUTH TEXAS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AND BRISK NORTH WINDS. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT STAY FOR LONG
AS RIDGING ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  58  30  44  35 /  90  50   0   0   0
WACO, TX              53  63  32  47  34 /  80  40   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             46  57  27  42  30 /  90  70   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            48  56  28  44  32 /  90  40   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  56  28  43  31 /  90  60   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            51  58  30  44  35 /  90  60   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           49  62  29  44  32 /  90  70   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         54  63  31  45  34 /  80  60   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            53  63  33  48  35 /  70  40  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  53  28  46  33 /  80  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KMAF 312332
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
527 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings and visibilities may improve for a couple of hours before
lower ceilings are expected to redevelop across the area late this
evening.  Low ceilings are expected to remain over the area through
Sunday morning before lifting around 18z.  There is a slight
possibility of fog developing overnight as well.  Areas of rain will
be possible through the overnight hours.  A cold front with elevated
north to northeast winds will move through the area around 15z with
winds weakening in the late afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low nrn MX/Srn AZ with a couple of
discernible shrtwv trof/s in the sw flow aloft. IR satellite shows
that the colder cloud tops assocd with morning precip shield
continues to move ne. As such the chance for widespread precip has
decreased, however with said shrtwv trof/s there is still some
potential for transitory -SHRA/-TSRA for remainder of this PM and
Sun PM across the Lower Trans Pecos/BB region with the mid level
cold pool there. Meanwhile a cold front will move thru the area
Sun, passing thru areas n of I-20 before 18Z. 85h temps of 3-5C
suggest highs of 50-55 in most areas. Post-frontal breezy winds of
20g30mph can be expected. Drier air and lighter winds Mon will be
a good set up for a cold morning with a hard freeze expected. Surface
pressure falls and lee troffing Mon/Tue will result in a warming
trend, 60s by Tues. Wed a cold front is moving s thru the plains
and may just hold off to the n thru peak heating and highs will be
well into the 60s and even M70s in some areas of Trans Pecos/wrn
PB as downslope winds squeeze out a few additional degrees. Breezy
to windy in wake of front Wed night with highs in the 40s Thur PM
and noticeably warmer Fri/Sat.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 312332
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
527 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings and visibilities may improve for a couple of hours before
lower ceilings are expected to redevelop across the area late this
evening.  Low ceilings are expected to remain over the area through
Sunday morning before lifting around 18z.  There is a slight
possibility of fog developing overnight as well.  Areas of rain will
be possible through the overnight hours.  A cold front with elevated
north to northeast winds will move through the area around 15z with
winds weakening in the late afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low nrn MX/Srn AZ with a couple of
discernible shrtwv trof/s in the sw flow aloft. IR satellite shows
that the colder cloud tops assocd with morning precip shield
continues to move ne. As such the chance for widespread precip has
decreased, however with said shrtwv trof/s there is still some
potential for transitory -SHRA/-TSRA for remainder of this PM and
Sun PM across the Lower Trans Pecos/BB region with the mid level
cold pool there. Meanwhile a cold front will move thru the area
Sun, passing thru areas n of I-20 before 18Z. 85h temps of 3-5C
suggest highs of 50-55 in most areas. Post-frontal breezy winds of
20g30mph can be expected. Drier air and lighter winds Mon will be
a good set up for a cold morning with a hard freeze expected. Surface
pressure falls and lee troffing Mon/Tue will result in a warming
trend, 60s by Tues. Wed a cold front is moving s thru the plains
and may just hold off to the n thru peak heating and highs will be
well into the 60s and even M70s in some areas of Trans Pecos/wrn
PB as downslope winds squeeze out a few additional degrees. Breezy
to windy in wake of front Wed night with highs in the 40s Thur PM
and noticeably warmer Fri/Sat.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 312332
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
527 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings and visibilities may improve for a couple of hours before
lower ceilings are expected to redevelop across the area late this
evening.  Low ceilings are expected to remain over the area through
Sunday morning before lifting around 18z.  There is a slight
possibility of fog developing overnight as well.  Areas of rain will
be possible through the overnight hours.  A cold front with elevated
north to northeast winds will move through the area around 15z with
winds weakening in the late afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low nrn MX/Srn AZ with a couple of
discernible shrtwv trof/s in the sw flow aloft. IR satellite shows
that the colder cloud tops assocd with morning precip shield
continues to move ne. As such the chance for widespread precip has
decreased, however with said shrtwv trof/s there is still some
potential for transitory -SHRA/-TSRA for remainder of this PM and
Sun PM across the Lower Trans Pecos/BB region with the mid level
cold pool there. Meanwhile a cold front will move thru the area
Sun, passing thru areas n of I-20 before 18Z. 85h temps of 3-5C
suggest highs of 50-55 in most areas. Post-frontal breezy winds of
20g30mph can be expected. Drier air and lighter winds Mon will be
a good set up for a cold morning with a hard freeze expected. Surface
pressure falls and lee troffing Mon/Tue will result in a warming
trend, 60s by Tues. Wed a cold front is moving s thru the plains
and may just hold off to the n thru peak heating and highs will be
well into the 60s and even M70s in some areas of Trans Pecos/wrn
PB as downslope winds squeeze out a few additional degrees. Breezy
to windy in wake of front Wed night with highs in the 40s Thur PM
and noticeably warmer Fri/Sat.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 312332
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
527 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings and visibilities may improve for a couple of hours before
lower ceilings are expected to redevelop across the area late this
evening.  Low ceilings are expected to remain over the area through
Sunday morning before lifting around 18z.  There is a slight
possibility of fog developing overnight as well.  Areas of rain will
be possible through the overnight hours.  A cold front with elevated
north to northeast winds will move through the area around 15z with
winds weakening in the late afternoon hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low nrn MX/Srn AZ with a couple of
discernible shrtwv trof/s in the sw flow aloft. IR satellite shows
that the colder cloud tops assocd with morning precip shield
continues to move ne. As such the chance for widespread precip has
decreased, however with said shrtwv trof/s there is still some
potential for transitory -SHRA/-TSRA for remainder of this PM and
Sun PM across the Lower Trans Pecos/BB region with the mid level
cold pool there. Meanwhile a cold front will move thru the area
Sun, passing thru areas n of I-20 before 18Z. 85h temps of 3-5C
suggest highs of 50-55 in most areas. Post-frontal breezy winds of
20g30mph can be expected. Drier air and lighter winds Mon will be
a good set up for a cold morning with a hard freeze expected. Surface
pressure falls and lee troffing Mon/Tue will result in a warming
trend, 60s by Tues. Wed a cold front is moving s thru the plains
and may just hold off to the n thru peak heating and highs will be
well into the 60s and even M70s in some areas of Trans Pecos/wrn
PB as downslope winds squeeze out a few additional degrees. Breezy
to windy in wake of front Wed night with highs in the 40s Thur PM
and noticeably warmer Fri/Sat.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KHGX 312226
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
426 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA HAVE BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A FEW IMPULSES OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM LOOK
TO BE THE DRIVER BEHIND THE LIGHT SHOWERS. THE LIMITING FACTOR IN
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE THE CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING...WHICH
ALTHOUGH HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...IS STILL AN INHIBITING
FACTOR. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE RAIN INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z
SUNDAY. 250 MB GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A WARM POCKET FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. BOTH MODELS SHOW A JET STREAK PRESENT
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PLACING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE FAVORED QUADRANT FOR CONVERGENCE AT THE
SURFACE. 500 MB GFS AND ECMWF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. 700MB GFS
OMEGA VALUES ARE NOT VERY HIGH...WITH VALUES NEVER EXCEEDING 8
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 700 MB DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE 5 DEGREES C OR BELOW FROM 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. 850MB GFS AND ECMWF WINDS SHOW 30KT WAA FROM 00Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY LIKELY PROVIDING THE LIFT NECESSARY TO CAUSE
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 6Z MONDAY...HAVING THE FRONT
OFF THE COAST BY 6Z MONDAY. THE NAM IS ABOUT 3 HOURS BEHIND THE
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY THE TIME THE
850MB FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BY 15Z MONDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE COLD AND CLEAR WITH AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 LIKELY EXPERIENCING MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S FOR LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 1000-500MB
THICKNESS VALUE OF 548 DM MAKING IT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS... BUT REMAINING NORTH OF METRO HOUSTON.
1000-500MB WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 30-35 KTS ADVECTING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG CAA MONDAY MORNING
WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 50 KTS...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
LATER IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA.
13
&&

.MARINE...

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...

EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN TIDES ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO
ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BEFORE THE
REGION LOSES THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE. LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSS
THE AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS /WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO/ POSSIBLE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT. RAIN
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST... BUT LIGHTNING WILL STILL POSE AN
ISOLATED THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SOMETIME
AROUND SUNSET ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO
THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS INCREASING
DRAMATICALLY OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...
WIND GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AND A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS TIME.
ADDITIONALLY... INCREASED WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL LIKELY PROMPT
THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS. LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE CHALLENGING
CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TIDES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS FRONT.

A BRIEF RESPITE FROM UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AS AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA INDUCES A COASTAL
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST ON TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF BOTH
THE UPPER AND SURFACE DISTURBANCES AND THE COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK ALONG THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HUFFMAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  68  35  50  36 /  60  60  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  72  38  52  37 /  50  70  20   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  67  41  51  43 /  40  50  30   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
MARINE/AVIATION...14




000
FXUS64 KHGX 312226
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
426 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA HAVE BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A FEW IMPULSES OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM LOOK
TO BE THE DRIVER BEHIND THE LIGHT SHOWERS. THE LIMITING FACTOR IN
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE THE CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING...WHICH
ALTHOUGH HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...IS STILL AN INHIBITING
FACTOR. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE RAIN INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z
SUNDAY. 250 MB GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A WARM POCKET FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. BOTH MODELS SHOW A JET STREAK PRESENT
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...PLACING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE FAVORED QUADRANT FOR CONVERGENCE AT THE
SURFACE. 500 MB GFS AND ECMWF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. 700MB GFS
OMEGA VALUES ARE NOT VERY HIGH...WITH VALUES NEVER EXCEEDING 8
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 700 MB DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE 5 DEGREES C OR BELOW FROM 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. 850MB GFS AND ECMWF WINDS SHOW 30KT WAA FROM 00Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY LIKELY PROVIDING THE LIFT NECESSARY TO CAUSE
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 6Z MONDAY...HAVING THE FRONT
OFF THE COAST BY 6Z MONDAY. THE NAM IS ABOUT 3 HOURS BEHIND THE
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY THE TIME THE
850MB FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BY 15Z MONDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE COLD AND CLEAR WITH AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 LIKELY EXPERIENCING MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S FOR LOWS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 1000-500MB
THICKNESS VALUE OF 548 DM MAKING IT INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS... BUT REMAINING NORTH OF METRO HOUSTON.
1000-500MB WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 30-35 KTS ADVECTING COLDER
AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG CAA MONDAY MORNING
WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 50 KTS...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
LATER IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA.
13
&&

.MARINE...

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...

EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN TIDES ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO
ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BEFORE THE
REGION LOSES THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE. LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSS
THE AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS /WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO/ POSSIBLE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT. RAIN
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST... BUT LIGHTNING WILL STILL POSE AN
ISOLATED THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SOMETIME
AROUND SUNSET ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO
THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS INCREASING
DRAMATICALLY OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...
WIND GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AND A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS TIME.
ADDITIONALLY... INCREASED WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL LIKELY PROMPT
THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS. LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE CHALLENGING
CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TIDES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS FRONT.

A BRIEF RESPITE FROM UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AS AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA INDUCES A COASTAL
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN COAST ON TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF BOTH
THE UPPER AND SURFACE DISTURBANCES AND THE COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK ALONG THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HUFFMAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  68  35  50  36 /  60  60  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  72  38  52  37 /  50  70  20   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  67  41  51  43 /  40  50  30   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
MARINE/AVIATION...14



000
FXUS64 KCRP 312216 CCA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
414 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT
HAD ANY LIGHTNING DETECTED YET. DYNAMICS IMPROVE THIS EVENING
HOWEVER...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z...AS WELL AS THE 90KT UPPER JET NOSING INTO THE REGION. AFTER
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...INTRODUCING DRIER AIR INTO THE PROFILE.
THUS...THINK 6PM TO MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN...AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CONTINUED THE
DECREASE OF POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
TO THE NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. CAPE IS
MINIMAL TONIGHT...BUT TOMORROW MU CAPE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. ALSO
HAVE SOME REASONABLE VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD REALLY DAMPEN THE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE THOUGH...AS ANY ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO DEVELOP A
STORM. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH POPS
DECREASING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET QUITE WARM. MOS GUIDANCE
DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GFS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR A NUMBER
OF SITES...AND THE NAM STICKING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. DID NOT
CHANGE THE NUMBERS MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...STICKING WITH A
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF THERE IS MORE
SUN THAN EXPECTED...COULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE 80S THOUGH. EXPECT
QUICKLY DECREASING TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GALE WATCH WL BE ISSUED FOR
THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS ENDING 15Z MONDAY WHEN CONDSIDERING SST
VALUES/WIND MAGNITUDES AT 925MB PER NAM DETERMINISTIC. WIND WL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTN AS THE MSLP
GRADIENT RELAXES. GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISIC DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR BAJA CA EARLY MONDAY AND MOVES SLOWLY EWD
ACRS NWRN MEXICO. DECIDED TO USE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PSN WHICH
SUGGEST THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WL OCCUR BY 06Z TUESDAY UNTIL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY. (PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL PER GFS
DETERMINISTIC.) ADJUSTED TIMING/PSN OF POPS OVER THE CWA/MSA TO
CONFORM TO THIS TIMING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR PCPN TO BE
PROVIDED BY A COASTAL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WL MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER
FROPA OVER THE CWA/MSA BY THURSDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT PCPN WL FORM
ALONG IT OWING TO LIMITED MSTR AND PROBABLE SUBSIDENCE (GFS
DETERMINISTIC/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.) DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY/
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  75  46  53  44  /  50  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          59  74  41  52  40  /  50  40  20  10  10
LAREDO            59  76  48  54  42  /  40  10  10  10  30
ALICE             60  77  46  54  42  /  60  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          62  68  45  52  46  /  40  30  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  73  45  55  41  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  78  47  54  43  /  50  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       62  70  47  53  47  /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 312216 CCA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
414 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT
HAD ANY LIGHTNING DETECTED YET. DYNAMICS IMPROVE THIS EVENING
HOWEVER...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z...AS WELL AS THE 90KT UPPER JET NOSING INTO THE REGION. AFTER
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...INTRODUCING DRIER AIR INTO THE PROFILE.
THUS...THINK 6PM TO MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN...AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CONTINUED THE
DECREASE OF POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
TO THE NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. CAPE IS
MINIMAL TONIGHT...BUT TOMORROW MU CAPE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. ALSO
HAVE SOME REASONABLE VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD REALLY DAMPEN THE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE THOUGH...AS ANY ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO DEVELOP A
STORM. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH POPS
DECREASING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET QUITE WARM. MOS GUIDANCE
DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GFS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR A NUMBER
OF SITES...AND THE NAM STICKING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. DID NOT
CHANGE THE NUMBERS MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...STICKING WITH A
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF THERE IS MORE
SUN THAN EXPECTED...COULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE 80S THOUGH. EXPECT
QUICKLY DECREASING TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GALE WATCH WL BE ISSUED FOR
THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS ENDING 15Z MONDAY WHEN CONDSIDERING SST
VALUES/WIND MAGNITUDES AT 925MB PER NAM DETERMINISTIC. WIND WL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTN AS THE MSLP
GRADIENT RELAXES. GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISIC DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR BAJA CA EARLY MONDAY AND MOVES SLOWLY EWD
ACRS NWRN MEXICO. DECIDED TO USE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PSN WHICH
SUGGEST THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WL OCCUR BY 06Z TUESDAY UNTIL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY. (PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL PER GFS
DETERMINISTIC.) ADJUSTED TIMING/PSN OF POPS OVER THE CWA/MSA TO
CONFORM TO THIS TIMING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR PCPN TO BE
PROVIDED BY A COASTAL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WL MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER
FROPA OVER THE CWA/MSA BY THURSDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT PCPN WL FORM
ALONG IT OWING TO LIMITED MSTR AND PROBABLE SUBSIDENCE (GFS
DETERMINISTIC/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.) DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY/
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  75  46  53  44  /  50  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          59  74  41  52  40  /  50  40  20  10  10
LAREDO            59  76  48  54  42  /  40  10  10  10  30
ALICE             60  77  46  54  42  /  60  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          62  68  45  52  46  /  40  30  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  73  45  55  41  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  78  47  54  43  /  50  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       62  70  47  53  47  /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 312202
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
402 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT
HAD ANY LIGHTNING DETECTED YET. DYNAMICS IMPROVE THIS EVENING
HOWEVER...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z...AS WELL AS THE 90KT UPPER JET NOSING INTO THE REGION. AFTER
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...INTRODUCING DRIER AIR INTO THE PROFILE.
THUS...THINK 6PM TO MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN...AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CONTINUED THE
DECREASE OF POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
TO THE NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. CAPE IS
MINIMAL TONIGHT...BUT TOMORROW MU CAPE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. ALSO
HAVE SOME REASONABLE VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD REALLY DAMPEN THE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE THOUGH...AS ANY ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO DEVELOP A
STORM. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH POPS
DECREASING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET QUITE WARM. MOS GUIDANCE
DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GFS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR A NUMBER
OF SITES...AND THE NAM STICKING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. DID NOT
CHANGE THE NUMBERS MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...STICKING WITH A
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF THERE IS MORE
SUN THAN EXPECTED...COULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE 80S THOUGH. EXPECT
QUICKLY DECREASING TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE 40S.



&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GALE WATCH WL BE ISSUED FOR
THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS ENDING 15Z MONDAY WHEN CONDSIDERING SST
VALUES/WIND MAGNITUDES AT 925MB PER NAM DETERMINISTIC. WIND WL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTN AS THE MSLP
GRADIENT RELAXES. GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISIC DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR BAJA CA EARLY MONDAY AND MOVES SLOWLY EWD
ACRS NWRN MEXICO. DECIDED TO USE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PSN WHICH
SUGGEST THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WL OCCUR BY 06Z TUESDAY UNTIL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY. (PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL PER GFS
DETERMINISTIC.) ADJUSTED TIMING/PSN OF POPS OVER THE CWA/MSA TO
CONFORM TO THIS TIMING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR PCPN TO BE
PROVIDED BY A COASTAL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WL MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER
FROPA OVER THE CWA/MSA BY THURSDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT PCPN WL FORM
ALONG IT OWING TO LIMITED MSTR AND PROBABLE SUBSIDENCE (GFS
DETERMINISTIC/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.) DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  75  46  53  44  /  50  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          59  74  41  52  40  /  50  40  20  10  10
LAREDO            59  76  48  54  42  /  40  10  10  10  30
ALICE             60  77  46  54  42  /  60  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          62  68  45  52  46  /  40  30  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  73  45  55  41  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  78  47  54  43  /  50  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       62  70  47  53  47  /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 312202
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
402 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT
HAD ANY LIGHTNING DETECTED YET. DYNAMICS IMPROVE THIS EVENING
HOWEVER...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z...AS WELL AS THE 90KT UPPER JET NOSING INTO THE REGION. AFTER
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...INTRODUCING DRIER AIR INTO THE PROFILE.
THUS...THINK 6PM TO MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN...AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CONTINUED THE
DECREASE OF POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
TO THE NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. CAPE IS
MINIMAL TONIGHT...BUT TOMORROW MU CAPE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. ALSO
HAVE SOME REASONABLE VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD REALLY DAMPEN THE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE THOUGH...AS ANY ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO DEVELOP A
STORM. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH POPS
DECREASING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET QUITE WARM. MOS GUIDANCE
DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GFS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR A NUMBER
OF SITES...AND THE NAM STICKING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. DID NOT
CHANGE THE NUMBERS MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...STICKING WITH A
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF THERE IS MORE
SUN THAN EXPECTED...COULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE 80S THOUGH. EXPECT
QUICKLY DECREASING TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE 40S.



&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GALE WATCH WL BE ISSUED FOR
THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS ENDING 15Z MONDAY WHEN CONDSIDERING SST
VALUES/WIND MAGNITUDES AT 925MB PER NAM DETERMINISTIC. WIND WL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTN AS THE MSLP
GRADIENT RELAXES. GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISIC DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR BAJA CA EARLY MONDAY AND MOVES SLOWLY EWD
ACRS NWRN MEXICO. DECIDED TO USE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PSN WHICH
SUGGEST THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WL OCCUR BY 06Z TUESDAY UNTIL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY. (PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL PER GFS
DETERMINISTIC.) ADJUSTED TIMING/PSN OF POPS OVER THE CWA/MSA TO
CONFORM TO THIS TIMING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR PCPN TO BE
PROVIDED BY A COASTAL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WL MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER
FROPA OVER THE CWA/MSA BY THURSDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT PCPN WL FORM
ALONG IT OWING TO LIMITED MSTR AND PROBABLE SUBSIDENCE (GFS
DETERMINISTIC/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.) DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  75  46  53  44  /  50  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          59  74  41  52  40  /  50  40  20  10  10
LAREDO            59  76  48  54  42  /  40  10  10  10  30
ALICE             60  77  46  54  42  /  60  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          62  68  45  52  46  /  40  30  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  73  45  55  41  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  78  47  54  43  /  50  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       62  70  47  53  47  /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 312202
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
402 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT
HAD ANY LIGHTNING DETECTED YET. DYNAMICS IMPROVE THIS EVENING
HOWEVER...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z...AS WELL AS THE 90KT UPPER JET NOSING INTO THE REGION. AFTER
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...INTRODUCING DRIER AIR INTO THE PROFILE.
THUS...THINK 6PM TO MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN...AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CONTINUED THE
DECREASE OF POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
TO THE NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. CAPE IS
MINIMAL TONIGHT...BUT TOMORROW MU CAPE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. ALSO
HAVE SOME REASONABLE VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD REALLY DAMPEN THE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE THOUGH...AS ANY ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO DEVELOP A
STORM. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH POPS
DECREASING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET QUITE WARM. MOS GUIDANCE
DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GFS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR A NUMBER
OF SITES...AND THE NAM STICKING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. DID NOT
CHANGE THE NUMBERS MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...STICKING WITH A
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF THERE IS MORE
SUN THAN EXPECTED...COULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE 80S THOUGH. EXPECT
QUICKLY DECREASING TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE 40S.



&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GALE WATCH WL BE ISSUED FOR
THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS ENDING 15Z MONDAY WHEN CONDSIDERING SST
VALUES/WIND MAGNITUDES AT 925MB PER NAM DETERMINISTIC. WIND WL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTN AS THE MSLP
GRADIENT RELAXES. GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISIC DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR BAJA CA EARLY MONDAY AND MOVES SLOWLY EWD
ACRS NWRN MEXICO. DECIDED TO USE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PSN WHICH
SUGGEST THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WL OCCUR BY 06Z TUESDAY UNTIL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY. (PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL PER GFS
DETERMINISTIC.) ADJUSTED TIMING/PSN OF POPS OVER THE CWA/MSA TO
CONFORM TO THIS TIMING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR PCPN TO BE
PROVIDED BY A COASTAL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WL MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER
FROPA OVER THE CWA/MSA BY THURSDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT PCPN WL FORM
ALONG IT OWING TO LIMITED MSTR AND PROBABLE SUBSIDENCE (GFS
DETERMINISTIC/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.) DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  75  46  53  44  /  50  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          59  74  41  52  40  /  50  40  20  10  10
LAREDO            59  76  48  54  42  /  40  10  10  10  30
ALICE             60  77  46  54  42  /  60  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          62  68  45  52  46  /  40  30  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  73  45  55  41  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  78  47  54  43  /  50  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       62  70  47  53  47  /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 312202
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
402 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT
HAD ANY LIGHTNING DETECTED YET. DYNAMICS IMPROVE THIS EVENING
HOWEVER...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z...AS WELL AS THE 90KT UPPER JET NOSING INTO THE REGION. AFTER
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE BEGIN TO TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...INTRODUCING DRIER AIR INTO THE PROFILE.
THUS...THINK 6PM TO MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN...AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CONTINUED THE
DECREASE OF POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING
TO THE NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. CAPE IS
MINIMAL TONIGHT...BUT TOMORROW MU CAPE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. ALSO
HAVE SOME REASONABLE VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD REALLY DAMPEN THE POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE THOUGH...AS ANY ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING
WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO DEVELOP A
STORM. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH POPS
DECREASING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET QUITE WARM. MOS GUIDANCE
DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GFS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR A NUMBER
OF SITES...AND THE NAM STICKING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. DID NOT
CHANGE THE NUMBERS MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...STICKING WITH A
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF THERE IS MORE
SUN THAN EXPECTED...COULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE 80S THOUGH. EXPECT
QUICKLY DECREASING TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO THE 40S.



&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GALE WATCH WL BE ISSUED FOR
THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS ENDING 15Z MONDAY WHEN CONDSIDERING SST
VALUES/WIND MAGNITUDES AT 925MB PER NAM DETERMINISTIC. WIND WL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTN AS THE MSLP
GRADIENT RELAXES. GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISIC DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR BAJA CA EARLY MONDAY AND MOVES SLOWLY EWD
ACRS NWRN MEXICO. DECIDED TO USE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PSN WHICH
SUGGEST THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WL OCCUR BY 06Z TUESDAY UNTIL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY. (PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL PER GFS
DETERMINISTIC.) ADJUSTED TIMING/PSN OF POPS OVER THE CWA/MSA TO
CONFORM TO THIS TIMING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR PCPN TO BE
PROVIDED BY A COASTAL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
WL MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER
FROPA OVER THE CWA/MSA BY THURSDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT PCPN WL FORM
ALONG IT OWING TO LIMITED MSTR AND PROBABLE SUBSIDENCE (GFS
DETERMINISTIC/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.) DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  75  46  53  44  /  50  20  20  10  20
VICTORIA          59  74  41  52  40  /  50  40  20  10  10
LAREDO            59  76  48  54  42  /  40  10  10  10  30
ALICE             60  77  46  54  42  /  60  20  20  10  20
ROCKPORT          62  68  45  52  46  /  40  30  20  10  10
COTULLA           57  73  45  55  41  /  40  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        61  78  47  54  43  /  50  20  20  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       62  70  47  53  47  /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM







000
FXUS64 KSJT 312151
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
351 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday )

Light rain was moving north of I-20, and east of an  Abilene...
Brady...Mason line at 3 PM. An upper low was west of El Paso, moving
slowly southeast.

Rain was pushing east and ending of West Central, faster than the
models indicated. Indeed at the current pace, nearly all the present
rain at 3 PM will be east or north of West Central Texas by 6 PM.
Kept a chance of showers going overnight, however, with the El Paso
low sending weak disturbances eastward. Additional rainfall amounts
will be light...ranging from a trace to a few hundredths inch. The
NAM and EC models bring isolated to scattered light showers over
West Central Texas tonight. The GFS model`s convective algorithm is
dry. The short range HRRR model brings in scattered showers, mainly
over Crockett county, the Concho Valley and areas southward. Timing
was between 9 PM and 4 AM. This may actually be the best model as it
seems to latched on an area of lift in the water vapor loop south of
El Paso.

A cold front will move through West Central Texas Sunday bringing
gusty north winds by noon. This clear low level moisture and clouds.
Sunshine in the afternoon should allow afternoon highs to be a 2-4
degrees warmer than today`s, despite cold air advection.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

Warmer weather will make a return to West Central Texas for the
first half of the week.  An area of high pressure centered over the
region on Monday, will slide off to our east by mid-week.  A thermal
ridge at 850 mb will expand east over the area, allowing high
temperatures to climb from the mid 50s on Monday, to the mid 60s by
Wednesday. A weak cold front approaching the area from the north
Wednesday night, will wash out near Interstate 10 during the day
Thursday, bringing cooler/drier air to the region. However, this
will be short-lived, as a lee trough develops to our west on Friday.
With a return flow developing, warmer temperatures and increasing
moisture are expected.

Precipitation chances may also increase for the southern half of the
forecast area. An upper-level disturbance currently located over
Baja California, is expected to pass by to our southeast Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning. This system may bring a chance of rain to
the region, mainly south of a line from San Angelo to Brownwood.
This afternoon`s numerical models have once again shifted the track
of the disturbance farther south and east, reducing forecast
confidence. However, the models have been flip-flopping on the track
for the last few model runs, and considering the system is still
largely in a data-void region, this will likely continue through the
next 48 hours. By then, the system will enter an improving
observational/upper-air network, which may result in improved model
continuity. Given the concerns mentioned above, only minimal changes
were made to the rainfall forecast for the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  49  51  24  51  36 /  40  10   5   5   5
San Angelo  51  60  27  54  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
Junction  52  64  30  55  34 /  60  20   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04/Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 312151
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
351 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday )

Light rain was moving north of I-20, and east of an  Abilene...
Brady...Mason line at 3 PM. An upper low was west of El Paso, moving
slowly southeast.

Rain was pushing east and ending of West Central, faster than the
models indicated. Indeed at the current pace, nearly all the present
rain at 3 PM will be east or north of West Central Texas by 6 PM.
Kept a chance of showers going overnight, however, with the El Paso
low sending weak disturbances eastward. Additional rainfall amounts
will be light...ranging from a trace to a few hundredths inch. The
NAM and EC models bring isolated to scattered light showers over
West Central Texas tonight. The GFS model`s convective algorithm is
dry. The short range HRRR model brings in scattered showers, mainly
over Crockett county, the Concho Valley and areas southward. Timing
was between 9 PM and 4 AM. This may actually be the best model as it
seems to latched on an area of lift in the water vapor loop south of
El Paso.

A cold front will move through West Central Texas Sunday bringing
gusty north winds by noon. This clear low level moisture and clouds.
Sunshine in the afternoon should allow afternoon highs to be a 2-4
degrees warmer than today`s, despite cold air advection.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

Warmer weather will make a return to West Central Texas for the
first half of the week.  An area of high pressure centered over the
region on Monday, will slide off to our east by mid-week.  A thermal
ridge at 850 mb will expand east over the area, allowing high
temperatures to climb from the mid 50s on Monday, to the mid 60s by
Wednesday. A weak cold front approaching the area from the north
Wednesday night, will wash out near Interstate 10 during the day
Thursday, bringing cooler/drier air to the region. However, this
will be short-lived, as a lee trough develops to our west on Friday.
With a return flow developing, warmer temperatures and increasing
moisture are expected.

Precipitation chances may also increase for the southern half of the
forecast area. An upper-level disturbance currently located over
Baja California, is expected to pass by to our southeast Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning. This system may bring a chance of rain to
the region, mainly south of a line from San Angelo to Brownwood.
This afternoon`s numerical models have once again shifted the track
of the disturbance farther south and east, reducing forecast
confidence. However, the models have been flip-flopping on the track
for the last few model runs, and considering the system is still
largely in a data-void region, this will likely continue through the
next 48 hours. By then, the system will enter an improving
observational/upper-air network, which may result in improved model
continuity. Given the concerns mentioned above, only minimal changes
were made to the rainfall forecast for the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  49  51  24  51  36 /  40  10   5   5   5
San Angelo  51  60  27  54  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
Junction  52  64  30  55  34 /  60  20   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04/Doll







000
FXUS64 KSJT 312151
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
351 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday )

Light rain was moving north of I-20, and east of an  Abilene...
Brady...Mason line at 3 PM. An upper low was west of El Paso, moving
slowly southeast.

Rain was pushing east and ending of West Central, faster than the
models indicated. Indeed at the current pace, nearly all the present
rain at 3 PM will be east or north of West Central Texas by 6 PM.
Kept a chance of showers going overnight, however, with the El Paso
low sending weak disturbances eastward. Additional rainfall amounts
will be light...ranging from a trace to a few hundredths inch. The
NAM and EC models bring isolated to scattered light showers over
West Central Texas tonight. The GFS model`s convective algorithm is
dry. The short range HRRR model brings in scattered showers, mainly
over Crockett county, the Concho Valley and areas southward. Timing
was between 9 PM and 4 AM. This may actually be the best model as it
seems to latched on an area of lift in the water vapor loop south of
El Paso.

A cold front will move through West Central Texas Sunday bringing
gusty north winds by noon. This clear low level moisture and clouds.
Sunshine in the afternoon should allow afternoon highs to be a 2-4
degrees warmer than today`s, despite cold air advection.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

Warmer weather will make a return to West Central Texas for the
first half of the week.  An area of high pressure centered over the
region on Monday, will slide off to our east by mid-week.  A thermal
ridge at 850 mb will expand east over the area, allowing high
temperatures to climb from the mid 50s on Monday, to the mid 60s by
Wednesday. A weak cold front approaching the area from the north
Wednesday night, will wash out near Interstate 10 during the day
Thursday, bringing cooler/drier air to the region. However, this
will be short-lived, as a lee trough develops to our west on Friday.
With a return flow developing, warmer temperatures and increasing
moisture are expected.

Precipitation chances may also increase for the southern half of the
forecast area. An upper-level disturbance currently located over
Baja California, is expected to pass by to our southeast Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning. This system may bring a chance of rain to
the region, mainly south of a line from San Angelo to Brownwood.
This afternoon`s numerical models have once again shifted the track
of the disturbance farther south and east, reducing forecast
confidence. However, the models have been flip-flopping on the track
for the last few model runs, and considering the system is still
largely in a data-void region, this will likely continue through the
next 48 hours. By then, the system will enter an improving
observational/upper-air network, which may result in improved model
continuity. Given the concerns mentioned above, only minimal changes
were made to the rainfall forecast for the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  49  51  24  51  36 /  40  10   5   5   5
San Angelo  51  60  27  54  36 /  30  10   5   5   5
Junction  52  64  30  55  34 /  60  20   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04/Doll







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 312146
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
246 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS DELIVERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT NOSES IN FROM THE EAST. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD
DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT SPAT OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS REORGANIZED SOUTHWARDS OVER NORTHWESTERN
SONORA IN MEXICO. WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS FEATURE IT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE SEA
OF CORTEZ DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHUT OFF
THE UNUSUALLY MOIST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND PREVENT
ADDITIONAL UPPER IMPULSES FROM ROTATING OVER THE REGION. AS A
RESULT POPS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT DOWN CONSIDERABLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ELEVATED AT AROUND 8000 FEET. ALL WINTER
RELATED ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL MANAGE TO BRING DOWN A
QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A FEW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND HELP BRING IN
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK BUT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS. WITH CLEARING
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR DUE TO MOIST
SURFACE CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF RECENT RAINFALL.

BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD
THINGS ARE LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR THE AREA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AS RIDGING TAKES OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. TEMPS
WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE RIDGE. ANOTHER BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE WEAK AND
ONLY SLOW DOWN THE INEVITABLE WARMING THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z-02/00Z...
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SE HUDSPETH COUNTY EARLY.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 22Z CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED INTO THE
1500-2500 FOOT RANGE... WITH A FEW AREAS EVEN BREAKING INTO BRIEF
VFR CONDITIONS. WITH THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC020 PREVAILING ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LSB-DMN-LRU LINE. STEADY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD
FOG CHANCES BUT VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5SM RANGE ARE A GOOD BET IN
MORE SHELTERED AREAS...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP BY MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS WELL BUT REMAIN
LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DOUBLE-BARRELED UPPER LOW OVER REMAINS OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA STARTING TO BECOME DOMINANT. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO THE
SOME AREAS OF THE LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
8K-9K FT IN THE GILA REGION AND 8500 TO 9500 FT IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH PATCHY FOG AND
HIGH RH VALUES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL...BUT A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 39  57  34  60  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           37  55  32  58  35 /  10  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              39  56  34  58  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              36  56  31  56  33 /  30  20   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              26  40  23  43  27 /  30  20  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   36  54  34  57  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             35  54  32  56  34 /  40  20   0   0   0
DEMING                  36  57  32  59  33 /  20  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               36  57  31  59  33 /  20  20   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      41  59  35  60  38 /  20  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               35  55  29  59  31 /  10  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            39  58  35  61  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              39  53  32  55  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
FABENS                  37  57  33  60  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            38  57  34  59  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          39  57  35  58  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           35  56  30  57  32 /  30  20   0   0   0
HATCH                   36  59  33  61  33 /  30  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                39  58  36  59  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               38  56  33  58  35 /  20  20   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 32  45  27  51  33 /  30  20  10   0   0
MESCALERO               30  46  25  47  28 /  30  20   0   0   0
TIMBERON                33  47  28  49  33 /  30  20  10   0   0
WINSTON                 33  50  30  54  32 /  20   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               36  53  34  55  36 /  30   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               35  56  32  58  34 /  20  20   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  52  30  54  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  34  54  32  55  32 /  30  20   0   0   0
CLIFF                   34  58  30  58  31 /  40  20   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              30  55  27  56  28 /  40  20   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 37  54  34  55  35 /  30  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  36  58  31  61  33 /  20  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 35  58  32  60  32 /  20  20   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          33  58  31  61  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              36  55  33  60  34 /  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ402-415.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ414-
     416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/HARDIMAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 312146
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
246 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS DELIVERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT NOSES IN FROM THE EAST. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD
DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT SPAT OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS REORGANIZED SOUTHWARDS OVER NORTHWESTERN
SONORA IN MEXICO. WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS FEATURE IT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE SEA
OF CORTEZ DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHUT OFF
THE UNUSUALLY MOIST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND PREVENT
ADDITIONAL UPPER IMPULSES FROM ROTATING OVER THE REGION. AS A
RESULT POPS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT DOWN CONSIDERABLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ELEVATED AT AROUND 8000 FEET. ALL WINTER
RELATED ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL MANAGE TO BRING DOWN A
QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A FEW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND HELP BRING IN
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK BUT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS. WITH CLEARING
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR DUE TO MOIST
SURFACE CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF RECENT RAINFALL.

BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD
THINGS ARE LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR THE AREA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AS RIDGING TAKES OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. TEMPS
WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE RIDGE. ANOTHER BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE WEAK AND
ONLY SLOW DOWN THE INEVITABLE WARMING THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z-02/00Z...
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SE HUDSPETH COUNTY EARLY.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 22Z CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED INTO THE
1500-2500 FOOT RANGE... WITH A FEW AREAS EVEN BREAKING INTO BRIEF
VFR CONDITIONS. WITH THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC020 PREVAILING ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LSB-DMN-LRU LINE. STEADY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD
FOG CHANCES BUT VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5SM RANGE ARE A GOOD BET IN
MORE SHELTERED AREAS...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP BY MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS WELL BUT REMAIN
LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DOUBLE-BARRELED UPPER LOW OVER REMAINS OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA STARTING TO BECOME DOMINANT. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO THE
SOME AREAS OF THE LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
8K-9K FT IN THE GILA REGION AND 8500 TO 9500 FT IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH PATCHY FOG AND
HIGH RH VALUES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL...BUT A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 39  57  34  60  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           37  55  32  58  35 /  10  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              39  56  34  58  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              36  56  31  56  33 /  30  20   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              26  40  23  43  27 /  30  20  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   36  54  34  57  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             35  54  32  56  34 /  40  20   0   0   0
DEMING                  36  57  32  59  33 /  20  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               36  57  31  59  33 /  20  20   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      41  59  35  60  38 /  20  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               35  55  29  59  31 /  10  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            39  58  35  61  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              39  53  32  55  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
FABENS                  37  57  33  60  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            38  57  34  59  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          39  57  35  58  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           35  56  30  57  32 /  30  20   0   0   0
HATCH                   36  59  33  61  33 /  30  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                39  58  36  59  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               38  56  33  58  35 /  20  20   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 32  45  27  51  33 /  30  20  10   0   0
MESCALERO               30  46  25  47  28 /  30  20   0   0   0
TIMBERON                33  47  28  49  33 /  30  20  10   0   0
WINSTON                 33  50  30  54  32 /  20   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               36  53  34  55  36 /  30   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               35  56  32  58  34 /  20  20   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  52  30  54  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  34  54  32  55  32 /  30  20   0   0   0
CLIFF                   34  58  30  58  31 /  40  20   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              30  55  27  56  28 /  40  20   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 37  54  34  55  35 /  30  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  36  58  31  61  33 /  20  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 35  58  32  60  32 /  20  20   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          33  58  31  61  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              36  55  33  60  34 /  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ402-415.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ414-
     416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/HARDIMAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 312146
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
246 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS DELIVERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT NOSES IN FROM THE EAST. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD
DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT SPAT OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS REORGANIZED SOUTHWARDS OVER NORTHWESTERN
SONORA IN MEXICO. WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS FEATURE IT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE SEA
OF CORTEZ DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHUT OFF
THE UNUSUALLY MOIST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND PREVENT
ADDITIONAL UPPER IMPULSES FROM ROTATING OVER THE REGION. AS A
RESULT POPS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT DOWN CONSIDERABLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ELEVATED AT AROUND 8000 FEET. ALL WINTER
RELATED ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL MANAGE TO BRING DOWN A
QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A FEW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND HELP BRING IN
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK BUT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS. WITH CLEARING
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR DUE TO MOIST
SURFACE CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF RECENT RAINFALL.

BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD
THINGS ARE LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR THE AREA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AS RIDGING TAKES OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. TEMPS
WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE RIDGE. ANOTHER BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE WEAK AND
ONLY SLOW DOWN THE INEVITABLE WARMING THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z-02/00Z...
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SE HUDSPETH COUNTY EARLY.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 22Z CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED INTO THE
1500-2500 FOOT RANGE... WITH A FEW AREAS EVEN BREAKING INTO BRIEF
VFR CONDITIONS. WITH THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC020 PREVAILING ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LSB-DMN-LRU LINE. STEADY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD
FOG CHANCES BUT VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5SM RANGE ARE A GOOD BET IN
MORE SHELTERED AREAS...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP BY MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS WELL BUT REMAIN
LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DOUBLE-BARRELED UPPER LOW OVER REMAINS OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA STARTING TO BECOME DOMINANT. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO THE
SOME AREAS OF THE LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
8K-9K FT IN THE GILA REGION AND 8500 TO 9500 FT IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH PATCHY FOG AND
HIGH RH VALUES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL...BUT A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 39  57  34  60  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           37  55  32  58  35 /  10  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              39  56  34  58  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              36  56  31  56  33 /  30  20   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              26  40  23  43  27 /  30  20  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   36  54  34  57  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             35  54  32  56  34 /  40  20   0   0   0
DEMING                  36  57  32  59  33 /  20  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               36  57  31  59  33 /  20  20   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      41  59  35  60  38 /  20  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               35  55  29  59  31 /  10  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            39  58  35  61  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              39  53  32  55  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
FABENS                  37  57  33  60  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            38  57  34  59  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          39  57  35  58  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           35  56  30  57  32 /  30  20   0   0   0
HATCH                   36  59  33  61  33 /  30  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                39  58  36  59  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               38  56  33  58  35 /  20  20   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 32  45  27  51  33 /  30  20  10   0   0
MESCALERO               30  46  25  47  28 /  30  20   0   0   0
TIMBERON                33  47  28  49  33 /  30  20  10   0   0
WINSTON                 33  50  30  54  32 /  20   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               36  53  34  55  36 /  30   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               35  56  32  58  34 /  20  20   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  52  30  54  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  34  54  32  55  32 /  30  20   0   0   0
CLIFF                   34  58  30  58  31 /  40  20   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              30  55  27  56  28 /  40  20   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 37  54  34  55  35 /  30  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  36  58  31  61  33 /  20  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 35  58  32  60  32 /  20  20   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          33  58  31  61  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              36  55  33  60  34 /  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ402-415.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ414-
     416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/HARDIMAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 312146
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
246 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS DELIVERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT NOSES IN FROM THE EAST. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD
DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT SPAT OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS REORGANIZED SOUTHWARDS OVER NORTHWESTERN
SONORA IN MEXICO. WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS FEATURE IT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE SEA
OF CORTEZ DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHUT OFF
THE UNUSUALLY MOIST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND PREVENT
ADDITIONAL UPPER IMPULSES FROM ROTATING OVER THE REGION. AS A
RESULT POPS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT DOWN CONSIDERABLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ELEVATED AT AROUND 8000 FEET. ALL WINTER
RELATED ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL MANAGE TO BRING DOWN A
QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A FEW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND HELP BRING IN
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK BUT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS. WITH CLEARING
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR DUE TO MOIST
SURFACE CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF RECENT RAINFALL.

BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD
THINGS ARE LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR THE AREA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AS RIDGING TAKES OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. TEMPS
WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE RIDGE. ANOTHER BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE WEAK AND
ONLY SLOW DOWN THE INEVITABLE WARMING THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z-02/00Z...
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SE HUDSPETH COUNTY EARLY.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 22Z CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED INTO THE
1500-2500 FOOT RANGE... WITH A FEW AREAS EVEN BREAKING INTO BRIEF
VFR CONDITIONS. WITH THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC020 PREVAILING ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LSB-DMN-LRU LINE. STEADY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD
FOG CHANCES BUT VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5SM RANGE ARE A GOOD BET IN
MORE SHELTERED AREAS...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP BY MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS WELL BUT REMAIN
LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DOUBLE-BARRELED UPPER LOW OVER REMAINS OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA STARTING TO BECOME DOMINANT. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO THE
SOME AREAS OF THE LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
8K-9K FT IN THE GILA REGION AND 8500 TO 9500 FT IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH PATCHY FOG AND
HIGH RH VALUES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL...BUT A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 39  57  34  60  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           37  55  32  58  35 /  10  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              39  56  34  58  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              36  56  31  56  33 /  30  20   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              26  40  23  43  27 /  30  20  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   36  54  34  57  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             35  54  32  56  34 /  40  20   0   0   0
DEMING                  36  57  32  59  33 /  20  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               36  57  31  59  33 /  20  20   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      41  59  35  60  38 /  20  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               35  55  29  59  31 /  10  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            39  58  35  61  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              39  53  32  55  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
FABENS                  37  57  33  60  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            38  57  34  59  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          39  57  35  58  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           35  56  30  57  32 /  30  20   0   0   0
HATCH                   36  59  33  61  33 /  30  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                39  58  36  59  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               38  56  33  58  35 /  20  20   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 32  45  27  51  33 /  30  20  10   0   0
MESCALERO               30  46  25  47  28 /  30  20   0   0   0
TIMBERON                33  47  28  49  33 /  30  20  10   0   0
WINSTON                 33  50  30  54  32 /  20   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               36  53  34  55  36 /  30   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               35  56  32  58  34 /  20  20   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  52  30  54  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  34  54  32  55  32 /  30  20   0   0   0
CLIFF                   34  58  30  58  31 /  40  20   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              30  55  27  56  28 /  40  20   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 37  54  34  55  35 /  30  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  36  58  31  61  33 /  20  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 35  58  32  60  32 /  20  20   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          33  58  31  61  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              36  55  33  60  34 /  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ402-415.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ414-
     416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/HARDIMAN






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 312146
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
246 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS DELIVERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT NOSES IN FROM THE EAST. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD
DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT SPAT OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS REORGANIZED SOUTHWARDS OVER NORTHWESTERN
SONORA IN MEXICO. WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS FEATURE IT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE SEA
OF CORTEZ DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHUT OFF
THE UNUSUALLY MOIST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND PREVENT
ADDITIONAL UPPER IMPULSES FROM ROTATING OVER THE REGION. AS A
RESULT POPS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT DOWN CONSIDERABLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ELEVATED AT AROUND 8000 FEET. ALL WINTER
RELATED ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL MANAGE TO BRING DOWN A
QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A FEW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND HELP BRING IN
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK BUT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS. WITH CLEARING
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR DUE TO MOIST
SURFACE CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF RECENT RAINFALL.

BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD
THINGS ARE LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR THE AREA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AS RIDGING TAKES OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. TEMPS
WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE RIDGE. ANOTHER BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE WEAK AND
ONLY SLOW DOWN THE INEVITABLE WARMING THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z-02/00Z...
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SE HUDSPETH COUNTY EARLY.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 22Z CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED INTO THE
1500-2500 FOOT RANGE... WITH A FEW AREAS EVEN BREAKING INTO BRIEF
VFR CONDITIONS. WITH THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC020 PREVAILING ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LSB-DMN-LRU LINE. STEADY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD
FOG CHANCES BUT VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5SM RANGE ARE A GOOD BET IN
MORE SHELTERED AREAS...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP BY MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS WELL BUT REMAIN
LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DOUBLE-BARRELED UPPER LOW OVER REMAINS OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA STARTING TO BECOME DOMINANT. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO THE
SOME AREAS OF THE LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
8K-9K FT IN THE GILA REGION AND 8500 TO 9500 FT IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH PATCHY FOG AND
HIGH RH VALUES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL...BUT A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 39  57  34  60  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           37  55  32  58  35 /  10  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              39  56  34  58  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              36  56  31  56  33 /  30  20   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              26  40  23  43  27 /  30  20  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   36  54  34  57  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             35  54  32  56  34 /  40  20   0   0   0
DEMING                  36  57  32  59  33 /  20  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               36  57  31  59  33 /  20  20   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      41  59  35  60  38 /  20  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               35  55  29  59  31 /  10  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            39  58  35  61  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              39  53  32  55  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
FABENS                  37  57  33  60  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            38  57  34  59  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          39  57  35  58  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           35  56  30  57  32 /  30  20   0   0   0
HATCH                   36  59  33  61  33 /  30  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                39  58  36  59  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               38  56  33  58  35 /  20  20   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 32  45  27  51  33 /  30  20  10   0   0
MESCALERO               30  46  25  47  28 /  30  20   0   0   0
TIMBERON                33  47  28  49  33 /  30  20  10   0   0
WINSTON                 33  50  30  54  32 /  20   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               36  53  34  55  36 /  30   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               35  56  32  58  34 /  20  20   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  52  30  54  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  34  54  32  55  32 /  30  20   0   0   0
CLIFF                   34  58  30  58  31 /  40  20   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              30  55  27  56  28 /  40  20   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 37  54  34  55  35 /  30  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  36  58  31  61  33 /  20  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 35  58  32  60  32 /  20  20   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          33  58  31  61  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              36  55  33  60  34 /  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ402-415.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ414-
     416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/HARDIMAN





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 312146
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
246 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS DELIVERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT NOSES IN FROM THE EAST. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD
DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT SPAT OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER HAS REORGANIZED SOUTHWARDS OVER NORTHWESTERN
SONORA IN MEXICO. WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROTATING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS FEATURE IT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH OVER THE SEA
OF CORTEZ DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHUT OFF
THE UNUSUALLY MOIST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND PREVENT
ADDITIONAL UPPER IMPULSES FROM ROTATING OVER THE REGION. AS A
RESULT POPS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT DOWN CONSIDERABLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ELEVATED AT AROUND 8000 FEET. ALL WINTER
RELATED ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

MEANWHILE THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL MANAGE TO BRING DOWN A
QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A FEW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND HELP BRING IN
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE EAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK BUT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR ONE MORE DAY
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS. WITH CLEARING
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR DUE TO MOIST
SURFACE CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF RECENT RAINFALL.

BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD
THINGS ARE LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR THE AREA. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AS RIDGING TAKES OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. TEMPS
WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE RIDGE. ANOTHER BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE WEAK AND
ONLY SLOW DOWN THE INEVITABLE WARMING THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z-02/00Z...
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SE HUDSPETH COUNTY EARLY.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 22Z CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED INTO THE
1500-2500 FOOT RANGE... WITH A FEW AREAS EVEN BREAKING INTO BRIEF
VFR CONDITIONS. WITH THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC020 PREVAILING ALONG/SOUTH OF A
LSB-DMN-LRU LINE. STEADY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD
FOG CHANCES BUT VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5SM RANGE ARE A GOOD BET IN
MORE SHELTERED AREAS...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP BY MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS WELL BUT REMAIN
LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DOUBLE-BARRELED UPPER LOW OVER REMAINS OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA STARTING TO BECOME DOMINANT. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO THE
SOME AREAS OF THE LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
8K-9K FT IN THE GILA REGION AND 8500 TO 9500 FT IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH PATCHY FOG AND
HIGH RH VALUES RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL...BUT A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 39  57  34  60  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           37  55  32  58  35 /  10  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              39  56  34  58  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              36  56  31  56  33 /  30  20   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              26  40  23  43  27 /  30  20  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   36  54  34  57  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             35  54  32  56  34 /  40  20   0   0   0
DEMING                  36  57  32  59  33 /  20  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               36  57  31  59  33 /  20  20   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      41  59  35  60  38 /  20  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               35  55  29  59  31 /  10  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            39  58  35  61  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              39  53  32  55  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
FABENS                  37  57  33  60  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            38  57  34  59  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          39  57  35  58  35 /  20  10   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           35  56  30  57  32 /  30  20   0   0   0
HATCH                   36  59  33  61  33 /  30  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                39  58  36  59  36 /  20  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               38  56  33  58  35 /  20  20   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 32  45  27  51  33 /  30  20  10   0   0
MESCALERO               30  46  25  47  28 /  30  20   0   0   0
TIMBERON                33  47  28  49  33 /  30  20  10   0   0
WINSTON                 33  50  30  54  32 /  20   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               36  53  34  55  36 /  30   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               35  56  32  58  34 /  20  20   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            32  52  30  54  32 /  40  10   0   0   0
HURLEY                  34  54  32  55  32 /  30  20   0   0   0
CLIFF                   34  58  30  58  31 /  40  20   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              30  55  27  56  28 /  40  20   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 37  54  34  55  35 /  30  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  36  58  31  61  33 /  20  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 35  58  32  60  32 /  20  20   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          33  58  31  61  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              36  55  33  60  34 /  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ402-415.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ414-
     416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/HARDIMAN






000
FXUS64 KAMA 312113
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
313 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A PREDOMINATELY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS PEEL
OUT LATER TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOLISH BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND H85 TEMPS PUSH TO AROUND 12C BY TUE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING TEMPS CRASHING DOWN BRIEFLY ON WED AND THU
BEFORE A POTENTIALLY BIG WARMUP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MED RANGE
MODELS HAVE H85 TEMPS FROM 17-21C BY NEXT SATURDAY. IF THESE
READINGS PAN OUT, HIGHS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE 70S ON SAT.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                32  41  22  55  33 /  30  10   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  32  39  17  53  28 /  60   5   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              31  40  21  57  33 /  30   5   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  36  44  24  56  35 /  40   5   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              33  42  25  59  31 /  30  10   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  34  43  23  55  32 /  30  10   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               36  44  20  53  31 /  40  10   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 33  40  24  57  32 /  30   5   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  32  41  22  56  32 /  60   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                35  43  24  57  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                37  39  16  50  32 /  50   5   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   33  39  20  52  32 /  40   5   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                37  44  20  48  30 /  40  10   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              38  47  22  50  34 /  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 312113
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
313 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A PREDOMINATELY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS PEEL
OUT LATER TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOLISH BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND H85 TEMPS PUSH TO AROUND 12C BY TUE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING TEMPS CRASHING DOWN BRIEFLY ON WED AND THU
BEFORE A POTENTIALLY BIG WARMUP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MED RANGE
MODELS HAVE H85 TEMPS FROM 17-21C BY NEXT SATURDAY. IF THESE
READINGS PAN OUT, HIGHS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE 70S ON SAT.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                32  41  22  55  33 /  30  10   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  32  39  17  53  28 /  60   5   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              31  40  21  57  33 /  30   5   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  36  44  24  56  35 /  40   5   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              33  42  25  59  31 /  30  10   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  34  43  23  55  32 /  30  10   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               36  44  20  53  31 /  40  10   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 33  40  24  57  32 /  30   5   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  32  41  22  56  32 /  60   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                35  43  24  57  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                37  39  16  50  32 /  50   5   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   33  39  20  52  32 /  40   5   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                37  44  20  48  30 /  40  10   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              38  47  22  50  34 /  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 312113
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
313 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A PREDOMINATELY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS PEEL
OUT LATER TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOLISH BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND H85 TEMPS PUSH TO AROUND 12C BY TUE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING TEMPS CRASHING DOWN BRIEFLY ON WED AND THU
BEFORE A POTENTIALLY BIG WARMUP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MED RANGE
MODELS HAVE H85 TEMPS FROM 17-21C BY NEXT SATURDAY. IF THESE
READINGS PAN OUT, HIGHS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE 70S ON SAT.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                32  41  22  55  33 /  30  10   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  32  39  17  53  28 /  60   5   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              31  40  21  57  33 /  30   5   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  36  44  24  56  35 /  40   5   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              33  42  25  59  31 /  30  10   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  34  43  23  55  32 /  30  10   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               36  44  20  53  31 /  40  10   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 33  40  24  57  32 /  30   5   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  32  41  22  56  32 /  60   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                35  43  24  57  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                37  39  16  50  32 /  50   5   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   33  39  20  52  32 /  40   5   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                37  44  20  48  30 /  40  10   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              38  47  22  50  34 /  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09






000
FXUS64 KAMA 312113
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
313 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A PREDOMINATELY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS PEEL
OUT LATER TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COOLISH BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND H85 TEMPS PUSH TO AROUND 12C BY TUE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING TEMPS CRASHING DOWN BRIEFLY ON WED AND THU
BEFORE A POTENTIALLY BIG WARMUP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MED RANGE
MODELS HAVE H85 TEMPS FROM 17-21C BY NEXT SATURDAY. IF THESE
READINGS PAN OUT, HIGHS WILL BE WELL UP IN THE 70S ON SAT.

SIMPSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                32  41  22  55  33 /  30  10   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  32  39  17  53  28 /  60   5   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              31  40  21  57  33 /  30   5   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  36  44  24  56  35 /  40   5   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              33  42  25  59  31 /  30  10   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  34  43  23  55  32 /  30  10   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               36  44  20  53  31 /  40  10   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 33  40  24  57  32 /  30   5   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  32  41  22  56  32 /  60   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                35  43  24  57  31 /  20  10   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                37  39  16  50  32 /  50   5   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   33  39  20  52  32 /  40   5   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                37  44  20  48  30 /  40  10   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              38  47  22  50  34 /  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09






000
FXUS64 KFWD 312106
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND CA/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND TONIGHT...THEN STALL
AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE RACING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AS NOTED BY THE
8-10 DEG/C 850MB DEW POINTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVING NORTHWARD.
A GOOD MID LEVEL FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
700-500MB IN ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT NOTED EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER WEST TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE DRY SLOT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER
SOUTH OF I-20...BUT IF THE DRY SLOT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED... THEN THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED OVERNIGHT.
LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD BE THE ONLY CONCERN WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVELS.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BRINGING BRISK NORTH WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD WESTERN MEXICO IN WAKE
OF THE EXITING CENTRAL U.S SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
END WELL BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AREAS MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
AND ONLY IN THE 40S AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTH WINDS READILY RETURN ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOME AND
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AND MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S EAST
TO THE 60S WEST. THE LARGE SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DOES AMPLIFY BY MID
WEEK AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND TRACK IT
EAST TOWARD SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE BROAD YET
RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CREEP AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
COOL AND DRY. ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY NOT BEING VERY RICH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE
SOUTH TEXAS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AND BRISK NORTH WINDS. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT STAY FOR LONG
AS RIDGING ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1221 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBY...THUNDER POTENTIAL.

METROPLEX...
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS BY SUNSET. IFR CEILINGS WILL
SETTLE IN THIS EVENING AND PERSIST DURING MORNING FLIGHTS SUNDAY.
EXPECTED ANY ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EAST
TEXAS...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES...AND DURING
THE NIGHTTIME LULL IN COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN VEERING
MID-MORNING SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED PORTION OF DFW TAF (SUNDAY AFTERNOON)...
ALTHOUGH METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL ALREADY BE IN NORTH FLOW BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LAG BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT. MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PREVAILING SPEEDS MAY
TOP 20KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS. EXPECT
RUNWAYS WILL BE WHISKED DRY BY THAT TIME...BUT DFW DIAGONALS WILL
STILL BE FAVORED TO MINIMIZE THE CROSSWIND COMPONENT.

WACO...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED...AND CONDITIONS WILL ONLY
DETERIORATE FURTHER AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE. PRECIPITATION MODE
WILL BE PRIMARILY SHOWERS...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IF THUNDER DOES
OCCUR AT THE WACO TERMINAL...IT IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN WHEN THE
TOWER IS CLOSED AND THERE ARE NO COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS. IFR CIGS/VSBY
WILL PREVAIL DURING MORNING ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES...BUT VEERING
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  58  30  44  35 /  90  50   0   0   0
WACO, TX              53  63  32  47  34 /  80  40   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             46  57  27  42  30 /  90  70   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            48  56  28  44  32 /  90  40   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  56  28  43  31 /  90  60   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            51  58  30  44  35 /  90  60   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           49  62  29  44  32 /  90  70   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         54  63  31  45  34 /  80  60   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            53  63  33  48  35 /  70  40  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  53  28  46  33 /  80  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 312106
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND CA/AZ WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND TONIGHT...THEN STALL
AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
IN ADDITION...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE RACING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AS NOTED BY THE
8-10 DEG/C 850MB DEW POINTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVING NORTHWARD.
A GOOD MID LEVEL FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
700-500MB IN ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT NOTED EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER WEST TEXAS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF
EMBEDDED THUNDER AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE DRY SLOT AND INCREASING MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER
SOUTH OF I-20...BUT IF THE DRY SLOT PUSHES FURTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED... THEN THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED OVERNIGHT.
LIGHTNING STRIKES WOULD BE THE ONLY CONCERN WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVELS.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BRINGING BRISK NORTH WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME...THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD WESTERN MEXICO IN WAKE
OF THE EXITING CENTRAL U.S SHORTWAVE. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
END WELL BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AREAS MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
AND ONLY IN THE 40S AS A COLD SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTH WINDS READILY RETURN ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOME AND
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AND MOSTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS MODERATE BACK INTO THE 50S EAST
TO THE 60S WEST. THE LARGE SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DOES AMPLIFY BY MID
WEEK AND BEGINS TO OPEN UP THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO AND TRACK IT
EAST TOWARD SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE BROAD YET
RELATIVELY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CREEP AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL TEXAS. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WHILE KEEPING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
COOL AND DRY. ANY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY NOT BEING VERY RICH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE
SOUTH TEXAS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD AND DRY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN AND BRISK NORTH WINDS. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT STAY FOR LONG
AS RIDGING ALOFT AND THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS BRING A WARM UP
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1221 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBY...THUNDER POTENTIAL.

METROPLEX...
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS BY SUNSET. IFR CEILINGS WILL
SETTLE IN THIS EVENING AND PERSIST DURING MORNING FLIGHTS SUNDAY.
EXPECTED ANY ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EAST
TEXAS...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES...AND DURING
THE NIGHTTIME LULL IN COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN VEERING
MID-MORNING SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED PORTION OF DFW TAF (SUNDAY AFTERNOON)...
ALTHOUGH METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL ALREADY BE IN NORTH FLOW BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LAG BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT. MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PREVAILING SPEEDS MAY
TOP 20KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS. EXPECT
RUNWAYS WILL BE WHISKED DRY BY THAT TIME...BUT DFW DIAGONALS WILL
STILL BE FAVORED TO MINIMIZE THE CROSSWIND COMPONENT.

WACO...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED...AND CONDITIONS WILL ONLY
DETERIORATE FURTHER AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE. PRECIPITATION MODE
WILL BE PRIMARILY SHOWERS...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IF THUNDER DOES
OCCUR AT THE WACO TERMINAL...IT IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN WHEN THE
TOWER IS CLOSED AND THERE ARE NO COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS. IFR CIGS/VSBY
WILL PREVAIL DURING MORNING ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES...BUT VEERING
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  58  30  44  35 /  90  50   0   0   0
WACO, TX              53  63  32  47  34 /  80  40   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             46  57  27  42  30 /  90  70   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            48  56  28  44  32 /  90  40   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  56  28  43  31 /  90  60   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            51  58  30  44  35 /  90  60   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           49  62  29  44  32 /  90  70   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         54  63  31  45  34 /  80  60   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            53  63  33  48  35 /  70  40  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  53  28  46  33 /  80  30   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /05






000
FXUS64 KLUB 312057
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

.LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  44  26  53 /  20  10   0   0
TULIA         35  46  25  52 /  30  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     36  47  26  51 /  30  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     36  48  26  52 /  20  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  47  27  52 /  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   38  52  27  52 /  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    39  50  27  52 /  20  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     39  50  26  51 /  50  10   0   0
SPUR          40  49  26  50 /  40  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     43  49  27  52 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/24




000
FXUS64 KLUB 312057
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

.LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  44  26  53 /  20  10   0   0
TULIA         35  46  25  52 /  30  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     36  47  26  51 /  30  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     36  48  26  52 /  20  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  47  27  52 /  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   38  52  27  52 /  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    39  50  27  52 /  20  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     39  50  26  51 /  50  10   0   0
SPUR          40  49  26  50 /  40  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     43  49  27  52 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/24



000
FXUS64 KEWX 312054
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
254 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST WATER VAPOR CHANNEL
PHOTOS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT LOWER LEVEL...A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS PUSHING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 5KFT OF 40 TO 50 MPH
BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE...IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A NEW
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE WAVE NEARS...EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...FIRST AFFECTING THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THEN THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS
WAVE COULD BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH FEW LOCATIONS GETTING UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH. ONCE THIS WAVES PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WILL
HAVE A BREAK FROM THE MODERATE RAINS WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN ZONES.
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARTS OF THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR OTHER AREAS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER AIRMASS
AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY...MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE I-35 AND LOWER 40S OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY AND COOL ON MONDAY WITH HIGH ONLY IN THE 50S. BY
TUESDAY...SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL FINALLY TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  68  36  51  37 /  70  40  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  69  37  51  33 /  70  40  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  71  38  53  36 /  70  40  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  64  32  50  34 /  70  30  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  69  41  56  40 /  30  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  65  33  49  34 /  70  40  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  73  39  56  37 /  60  20  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  69  37  51  35 /  70  40  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  70  38  51  36 /  60  50  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  70  39  54  38 /  70  30  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  73  40  55  38 /  70  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 312054
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
254 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST WATER VAPOR CHANNEL
PHOTOS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT LOWER LEVEL...A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS PUSHING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 5KFT OF 40 TO 50 MPH
BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE...IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A NEW
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE WAVE NEARS...EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...FIRST AFFECTING THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THEN THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS
WAVE COULD BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH FEW LOCATIONS GETTING UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH. ONCE THIS WAVES PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WILL
HAVE A BREAK FROM THE MODERATE RAINS WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN ZONES.
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARTS OF THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR OTHER AREAS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER AIRMASS
AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY...MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE I-35 AND LOWER 40S OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY AND COOL ON MONDAY WITH HIGH ONLY IN THE 50S. BY
TUESDAY...SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL FINALLY TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  68  36  51  37 /  70  40  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  69  37  51  33 /  70  40  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  71  38  53  36 /  70  40  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  64  32  50  34 /  70  30  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  69  41  56  40 /  30  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  65  33  49  34 /  70  40  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  73  39  56  37 /  60  20  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  69  37  51  35 /  70  40  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  70  38  51  36 /  60  50  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  70  39  54  38 /  70  30  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  73  40  55  38 /  70  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 312054
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
254 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST WATER VAPOR CHANNEL
PHOTOS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT LOWER LEVEL...A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS PUSHING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 5KFT OF 40 TO 50 MPH
BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE...IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A NEW
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE WAVE NEARS...EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...FIRST AFFECTING THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THEN THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS
WAVE COULD BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH FEW LOCATIONS GETTING UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH. ONCE THIS WAVES PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WILL
HAVE A BREAK FROM THE MODERATE RAINS WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN ZONES.
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARTS OF THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR OTHER AREAS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER AIRMASS
AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY...MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE I-35 AND LOWER 40S OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY AND COOL ON MONDAY WITH HIGH ONLY IN THE 50S. BY
TUESDAY...SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL FINALLY TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  68  36  51  37 /  70  40  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  69  37  51  33 /  70  40  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  71  38  53  36 /  70  40  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  64  32  50  34 /  70  30  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  69  41  56  40 /  30  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  65  33  49  34 /  70  40  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  73  39  56  37 /  60  20  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  69  37  51  35 /  70  40  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  70  38  51  36 /  60  50  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  70  39  54  38 /  70  30  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  73  40  55  38 /  70  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 312054
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
254 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST WATER VAPOR CHANNEL
PHOTOS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT LOWER LEVEL...A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS PUSHING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 5KFT OF 40 TO 50 MPH
BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE...IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A NEW
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF INSTABILITY MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE WAVE NEARS...EXPECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...FIRST AFFECTING THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THEN THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS
WAVE COULD BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WITH FEW LOCATIONS GETTING UP TO THREE
QUARTER INCH. ONCE THIS WAVES PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WILL
HAVE A BREAK FROM THE MODERATE RAINS WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN ZONES.
INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARTS OF THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITOR FOR OTHER AREAS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER AIRMASS
AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY...MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE I-35 AND LOWER 40S OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DRY AND COOL ON MONDAY WITH HIGH ONLY IN THE 50S. BY
TUESDAY...SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE (MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL FINALLY TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  68  36  51  37 /  70  40  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  69  37  51  33 /  70  40  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  71  38  53  36 /  70  40  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  64  32  50  34 /  70  30  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           52  69  41  56  40 /  30  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  65  33  49  34 /  70  40  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             54  73  39  56  37 /  60  20  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  69  37  51  35 /  70  40  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  70  38  51  36 /  60  50  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       56  70  39  54  38 /  70  30  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  73  40  55  38 /  70  30  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KBRO 312036
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
236 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT...STRONG FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. BROADLY DIFFLUENT JET ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THAT LOW IS
LEADING TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MODESTLY STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES OVER THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND THAT IS INTERACTING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA TO PRODUCE A RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
MEXICO ARE HELPING GENERATE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO.

TONIGHT...
SUBTLE RIPPLES IN SOUTHWESTERLY JET FLOW OVER MEXICO ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AMID BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL WORK WITH STEEPENING
UPPER LAPSE RATES TO HELP SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW OVERALL BUT A
HEAVIER SHOWER COULD BRING A QUICK 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.

SUNDAY...
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WHICH MAY WORK WITH A FEW BREAKS IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO PRODUCE RELATIVELY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 80 DEGREES AND KEPT RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO NIL
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SFC-850 DRYING THAT LAYER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
WINDS SPEEDS WILL BACK OFF AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE
EVENING AND PAINTED AN AREA OF FOG STARTING EARLY IN THE EVENING
NEAR THE COAST AND IN PARTS OF THE METRO AREA. THE STRONG FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH IN THE LATE EVENING AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT WIND WILL VERY LIKELY BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT FROM
THIS FRONT ASIDE FROM THE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A VERY STRONG GRADIENT PUSHING ACROSS WITH THE FRONT AND
STRONG SFC- 850MB COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN 40 TO 45
KNOT WINDS IN THAT LAYER MAKING GUSTS STRONGER. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS ON LAND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...AROUND
25 MPH NEAR THE COAST AND THEN STRONGER OVER THE WATER. BAY AND
NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOW 60S...
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE REPORT OF BUOY 42020 SO EXPECTING OBSERVED
WIND SPEEDS ON ALL WATERS TO BE CLOSER THAN PREVIOUS FRONTS THAT
HAD VERY COLD NEARSHORE WATER PRESENT. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28
TO 32 KNOTS AND GUSTS PUSHING 35 TO 40 LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR ALL WATERS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES
FOR PART OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /68-JGG/

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SUPPORTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL HANG BACK AND BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTING AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO THE FIRST TWO TO
THREE DAYS OF THE WEEK...REPLEAT WITH LOW OVERCAST SKIES...LIGHT
RAIN...AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING ON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST BY DAWN MONDAY. WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER...IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S WITH MID TO UPPER 40S MONDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE AREAS WITH CHANCES
WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL DECREASE MONDAY AFTER THE
FRONT AS SOME DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE MAIN FRONT IN FROM THE
NORTH...BEFORE A GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP OCCURS.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
50S...WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS NOT DECREASING THAT MUCH...JUST A
FEW DEGREES AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CHANCES OCCUR AND THE
COLDER AIR QUICKLY MODIFIES. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID
LEVEL LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND
RAINY CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN THE THURSDAY FRONT BEING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND...WITHOUT
ANYTHING TO THE WEST...A MUCH DRIER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATER IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MORE MODERATE WINDS
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND VERY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUNDAY
EVENING. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
VERY ROUGH BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL HANG ON THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE OFFSHORE LOW...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST BEYOND THE LOCALLY
FORECASTED MARINE ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  62  77  55  55 /  30  10  40  20
BROWNSVILLE          62  79  55  56 /  30  10  40  20
HARLINGEN            62  81  53  56 /  30  10  40  20
MCALLEN              61  83  53  58 /  40  10  40  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      60  83  53  59 /  50  10  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/54/65




000
FXUS64 KBRO 312036
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
236 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

IMPACTS...
SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT...STRONG FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS.

RELEVANT FEATURES...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWIRL INTO NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. BROADLY DIFFLUENT JET ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THAT LOW IS
LEADING TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MODESTLY STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES OVER THE AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND THAT IS INTERACTING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER APPALACHIA TO PRODUCE A RATHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
MEXICO ARE HELPING GENERATE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO.

TONIGHT...
SUBTLE RIPPLES IN SOUTHWESTERLY JET FLOW OVER MEXICO ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AMID BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL WORK WITH STEEPENING
UPPER LAPSE RATES TO HELP SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW OVERALL BUT A
HEAVIER SHOWER COULD BRING A QUICK 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES.

SUNDAY...
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WHICH MAY WORK WITH A FEW BREAKS IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO PRODUCE RELATIVELY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED HIGHS
AVERAGING AROUND 80 DEGREES AND KEPT RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO NIL
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SFC-850 DRYING THAT LAYER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...
WINDS SPEEDS WILL BACK OFF AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE
EVENING AND PAINTED AN AREA OF FOG STARTING EARLY IN THE EVENING
NEAR THE COAST AND IN PARTS OF THE METRO AREA. THE STRONG FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH IN THE LATE EVENING AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT WIND WILL VERY LIKELY BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE IMPACT FROM
THIS FRONT ASIDE FROM THE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A VERY STRONG GRADIENT PUSHING ACROSS WITH THE FRONT AND
STRONG SFC- 850MB COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL HELP MIX DOWN 40 TO 45
KNOT WINDS IN THAT LAYER MAKING GUSTS STRONGER. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS ON LAND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE...AROUND
25 MPH NEAR THE COAST AND THEN STRONGER OVER THE WATER. BAY AND
NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE LOW 60S...
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE REPORT OF BUOY 42020 SO EXPECTING OBSERVED
WIND SPEEDS ON ALL WATERS TO BE CLOSER THAN PREVIOUS FRONTS THAT
HAD VERY COLD NEARSHORE WATER PRESENT. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28
TO 32 KNOTS AND GUSTS PUSHING 35 TO 40 LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR ALL WATERS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES
FOR PART OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /68-JGG/

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SUPPORTED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL HANG BACK AND BECOME MORE OF A PLAYER IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTING AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO THE FIRST TWO TO
THREE DAYS OF THE WEEK...REPLEAT WITH LOW OVERCAST SKIES...LIGHT
RAIN...AND COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING ON MONDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST BY DAWN MONDAY. WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS MONDAY 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER...IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S WITH MID TO UPPER 40S MONDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST MODEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE AREAS WITH CHANCES
WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL DECREASE MONDAY AFTER THE
FRONT AS SOME DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE MAIN FRONT IN FROM THE
NORTH...BEFORE A GOOD OVERRUNNING SETUP OCCURS.

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
50S...WITH TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS NOT DECREASING THAT MUCH...JUST A
FEW DEGREES AS SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CHANCES OCCUR AND THE
COLDER AIR QUICKLY MODIFIES. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID
LEVEL LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND
RAINY CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST
HIGHS INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN THE THURSDAY FRONT BEING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND...WITHOUT
ANYTHING TO THE WEST...A MUCH DRIER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE LATER IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MORE MODERATE WINDS
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND VERY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUNDAY
EVENING. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
VERY ROUGH BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
TUESDAY AS OFFSHORE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL HANG ON THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE OFFSHORE LOW...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST BEYOND THE LOCALLY
FORECASTED MARINE ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  62  77  55  55 /  30  10  40  20
BROWNSVILLE          62  79  55  56 /  30  10  40  20
HARLINGEN            62  81  53  56 /  30  10  40  20
MCALLEN              61  83  53  58 /  40  10  40  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      60  83  53  59 /  50  10  30  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/54/65



000
FXUS64 KMAF 312024
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
224 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low nrn MX/Srn AZ with a couple of
discernible shrtwv trof/s in the sw flow aloft. IR satellite shows
that the colder cloud tops assocd with morning precip shield
continues to move ne. As such the chance for widespread precip has
decreased, however with said shrtwv trof/s there is still some
potential for transitory -SHRA/-TSRA for remainder of this PM and
Sun PM across the Lower Trans Pecos/BB region with the mid level
cold pool there. Meanwhile a cold front will move thru the area
Sun, passing thru areas n of I-20 before 18Z. 85h temps of 3-5C
suggest highs of 50-55 in most areas. Post-frontal breezy winds of
20g30mph can be expected. Drier air and lighter winds Mon will be
a good set up for a cold morning with a hard freeze expected. Surface
pressure falls and lee troffing Mon/Tue will result in a warming
trend, 60s by Tues. Wed a cold front is moving s thru the plains
and may just hold off to the n thru peak heating and highs will be
well into the 60s and even M70s in some areas of Trans Pecos/wrn
PB as downslope winds squeeze out a few additional degrees. Breezy
to windy in wake of front Wed night with highs in the 40s Thur PM
and noticeably warmer Fri/Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  51  26  55  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              43  51  25  55  /  20  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                41  54  28  60  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  46  65  36  56  /  40  20  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           45  55  30  58  /  40  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          38  49  28  55  /  20  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   39  50  27  55  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   35  57  27  57  /  50  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    43  52  24  55  /  20  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  43  52  25  55  /  20  10   0   0
WINK TX                    42  56  28  59  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 312024
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
224 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low nrn MX/Srn AZ with a couple of
discernible shrtwv trof/s in the sw flow aloft. IR satellite shows
that the colder cloud tops assocd with morning precip shield
continues to move ne. As such the chance for widespread precip has
decreased, however with said shrtwv trof/s there is still some
potential for transitory -SHRA/-TSRA for remainder of this PM and
Sun PM across the Lower Trans Pecos/BB region with the mid level
cold pool there. Meanwhile a cold front will move thru the area
Sun, passing thru areas n of I-20 before 18Z. 85h temps of 3-5C
suggest highs of 50-55 in most areas. Post-frontal breezy winds of
20g30mph can be expected. Drier air and lighter winds Mon will be
a good set up for a cold morning with a hard freeze expected. Surface
pressure falls and lee troffing Mon/Tue will result in a warming
trend, 60s by Tues. Wed a cold front is moving s thru the plains
and may just hold off to the n thru peak heating and highs will be
well into the 60s and even M70s in some areas of Trans Pecos/wrn
PB as downslope winds squeeze out a few additional degrees. Breezy
to windy in wake of front Wed night with highs in the 40s Thur PM
and noticeably warmer Fri/Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  51  26  55  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              43  51  25  55  /  20  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                41  54  28  60  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  46  65  36  56  /  40  20  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           45  55  30  58  /  40  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          38  49  28  55  /  20  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   39  50  27  55  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   35  57  27  57  /  50  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    43  52  24  55  /  20  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  43  52  25  55  /  20  10   0   0
WINK TX                    42  56  28  59  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KFWD 311821 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBY...THUNDER POTENTIAL.

METROPLEX...
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS BY SUNSET. IFR CEILINGS WILL
SETTLE IN THIS EVENING AND PERSIST DURING MORNING FLIGHTS SUNDAY.
EXPECTED ANY ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EAST
TEXAS...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES...AND DURING
THE NIGHTTIME LULL IN COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN VEERING
MID-MORNING SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED PORTION OF DFW TAF (SUNDAY AFTERNOON)...
ALTHOUGH METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL ALREADY BE IN NORTH FLOW BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LAG BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT. MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PREVAILING SPEEDS MAY
TOP 20KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS. EXPECT
RUNWAYS WILL BE WHISKED DRY BY THAT TIME...BUT DFW DIAGONALS WILL
STILL BE FAVORED TO MINIMIZE THE CROSSWIND COMPONENT.

WACO...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED...AND CONDITIONS WILL ONLY
DETERIORATE FURTHER AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE. PRECIPITATION MODE
WILL BE PRIMARILY SHOWERS...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IF THUNDER DOES
OCCUR AT THE WACO TERMINAL...IT IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN WHEN THE
TOWER IS CLOSED AND THERE ARE NO COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS. IFR CIGS/VSBY
WILL PREVAIL DURING MORNING ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES...BUT VEERING
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY.

25

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
AS I WRITE THIS AN AREA OF VIRGA SITS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. AN OCCASIONAL RAIN DROP MAY MAKE IT
TO THE SURFACE...BUT THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN
750 AND 950 MB. IT WILL TAKE A BIT OF PRECIP TO MOISTEN THIS
LAYER. AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH PRECIP ONSET TIMING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...I HAVE DECREASED QPF SINCE A GOOD PORTION OF OUR
EXPECTED RAIN WILL EVAPORATE AS IT MOISTENS THIS LAYER. MANY
AREAS WILL NOW STRUGGLE TO GET A QUARTER INCH OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A BIT MORE THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THE PRECIP SHOULD ALSO SHUT OFF FASTER SUNDAY AS THE ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ARE
NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX AFTER
NOON.

THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS COASTAL TX TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HAS ITS TRACK SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...AND LOW POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT NORTH AS WELL. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE TRACK SHIFT BACK SOUTH AGAIN
TOMORROW...THAT SEEMS TO BE THE PATTERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE QPF BEHIND THIS
FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO BELOW THE INVERSION AND THIS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL...WITH WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.  84




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  48  57  29  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
WACO, TX              55  51  61  32  47 /  60  80  70  10   5
PARIS, TX             54  44  55  27  42 /  40  90  70  10   5
DENTON, TX            53  45  54  28  44 /  70  90  60  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  46  56  28  43 /  60  90  70  10   5
DALLAS, TX            55  48  58  30  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
TERRELL, TX           56  49  59  30  44 /  50  90  70  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         56  51  61  31  45 /  50  80  70  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            56  52  63  33  48 /  60  70  70  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  46  53  28  46 /  90  80  40  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 311821 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBY...THUNDER POTENTIAL.

METROPLEX...
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS BY SUNSET. IFR CEILINGS WILL
SETTLE IN THIS EVENING AND PERSIST DURING MORNING FLIGHTS SUNDAY.
EXPECTED ANY ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EAST
TEXAS...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES...AND DURING
THE NIGHTTIME LULL IN COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN VEERING
MID-MORNING SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED PORTION OF DFW TAF (SUNDAY AFTERNOON)...
ALTHOUGH METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL ALREADY BE IN NORTH FLOW BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LAG BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT. MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PREVAILING SPEEDS MAY
TOP 20KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS. EXPECT
RUNWAYS WILL BE WHISKED DRY BY THAT TIME...BUT DFW DIAGONALS WILL
STILL BE FAVORED TO MINIMIZE THE CROSSWIND COMPONENT.

WACO...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED...AND CONDITIONS WILL ONLY
DETERIORATE FURTHER AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE. PRECIPITATION MODE
WILL BE PRIMARILY SHOWERS...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IF THUNDER DOES
OCCUR AT THE WACO TERMINAL...IT IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN WHEN THE
TOWER IS CLOSED AND THERE ARE NO COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS. IFR CIGS/VSBY
WILL PREVAIL DURING MORNING ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES...BUT VEERING
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY.

25

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
AS I WRITE THIS AN AREA OF VIRGA SITS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. AN OCCASIONAL RAIN DROP MAY MAKE IT
TO THE SURFACE...BUT THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN
750 AND 950 MB. IT WILL TAKE A BIT OF PRECIP TO MOISTEN THIS
LAYER. AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH PRECIP ONSET TIMING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...I HAVE DECREASED QPF SINCE A GOOD PORTION OF OUR
EXPECTED RAIN WILL EVAPORATE AS IT MOISTENS THIS LAYER. MANY
AREAS WILL NOW STRUGGLE TO GET A QUARTER INCH OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A BIT MORE THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THE PRECIP SHOULD ALSO SHUT OFF FASTER SUNDAY AS THE ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ARE
NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX AFTER
NOON.

THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS COASTAL TX TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HAS ITS TRACK SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...AND LOW POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT NORTH AS WELL. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE TRACK SHIFT BACK SOUTH AGAIN
TOMORROW...THAT SEEMS TO BE THE PATTERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE QPF BEHIND THIS
FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO BELOW THE INVERSION AND THIS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL...WITH WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.  84




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  48  57  29  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
WACO, TX              55  51  61  32  47 /  60  80  70  10   5
PARIS, TX             54  44  55  27  42 /  40  90  70  10   5
DENTON, TX            53  45  54  28  44 /  70  90  60  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  46  56  28  43 /  60  90  70  10   5
DALLAS, TX            55  48  58  30  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
TERRELL, TX           56  49  59  30  44 /  50  90  70  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         56  51  61  31  45 /  50  80  70  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            56  52  63  33  48 /  60  70  70  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  46  53  28  46 /  90  80  40  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 311821 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBY...THUNDER POTENTIAL.

METROPLEX...
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS BY SUNSET. IFR CEILINGS WILL
SETTLE IN THIS EVENING AND PERSIST DURING MORNING FLIGHTS SUNDAY.
EXPECTED ANY ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EAST
TEXAS...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES...AND DURING
THE NIGHTTIME LULL IN COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN VEERING
MID-MORNING SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED PORTION OF DFW TAF (SUNDAY AFTERNOON)...
ALTHOUGH METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL ALREADY BE IN NORTH FLOW BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LAG BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT. MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PREVAILING SPEEDS MAY
TOP 20KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS. EXPECT
RUNWAYS WILL BE WHISKED DRY BY THAT TIME...BUT DFW DIAGONALS WILL
STILL BE FAVORED TO MINIMIZE THE CROSSWIND COMPONENT.

WACO...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED...AND CONDITIONS WILL ONLY
DETERIORATE FURTHER AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE. PRECIPITATION MODE
WILL BE PRIMARILY SHOWERS...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IF THUNDER DOES
OCCUR AT THE WACO TERMINAL...IT IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN WHEN THE
TOWER IS CLOSED AND THERE ARE NO COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS. IFR CIGS/VSBY
WILL PREVAIL DURING MORNING ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES...BUT VEERING
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY.

25

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
AS I WRITE THIS AN AREA OF VIRGA SITS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. AN OCCASIONAL RAIN DROP MAY MAKE IT
TO THE SURFACE...BUT THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN
750 AND 950 MB. IT WILL TAKE A BIT OF PRECIP TO MOISTEN THIS
LAYER. AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH PRECIP ONSET TIMING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...I HAVE DECREASED QPF SINCE A GOOD PORTION OF OUR
EXPECTED RAIN WILL EVAPORATE AS IT MOISTENS THIS LAYER. MANY
AREAS WILL NOW STRUGGLE TO GET A QUARTER INCH OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A BIT MORE THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THE PRECIP SHOULD ALSO SHUT OFF FASTER SUNDAY AS THE ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ARE
NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX AFTER
NOON.

THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS COASTAL TX TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HAS ITS TRACK SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...AND LOW POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT NORTH AS WELL. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE TRACK SHIFT BACK SOUTH AGAIN
TOMORROW...THAT SEEMS TO BE THE PATTERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE QPF BEHIND THIS
FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO BELOW THE INVERSION AND THIS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL...WITH WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.  84




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  48  57  29  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
WACO, TX              55  51  61  32  47 /  60  80  70  10   5
PARIS, TX             54  44  55  27  42 /  40  90  70  10   5
DENTON, TX            53  45  54  28  44 /  70  90  60  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  46  56  28  43 /  60  90  70  10   5
DALLAS, TX            55  48  58  30  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
TERRELL, TX           56  49  59  30  44 /  50  90  70  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         56  51  61  31  45 /  50  80  70  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            56  52  63  33  48 /  60  70  70  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  46  53  28  46 /  90  80  40  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 311821 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...DETERIORATING CIGS/VSBY...THUNDER POTENTIAL.

METROPLEX...
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS BY SUNSET. IFR CEILINGS WILL
SETTLE IN THIS EVENING AND PERSIST DURING MORNING FLIGHTS SUNDAY.
EXPECTED ANY ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EAST
TEXAS...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES...AND DURING
THE NIGHTTIME LULL IN COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN VEERING
MID-MORNING SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...RAPIDLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED PORTION OF DFW TAF (SUNDAY AFTERNOON)...
ALTHOUGH METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL ALREADY BE IN NORTH FLOW BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY...THE STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LAG BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT. MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PREVAILING SPEEDS MAY
TOP 20KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS. EXPECT
RUNWAYS WILL BE WHISKED DRY BY THAT TIME...BUT DFW DIAGONALS WILL
STILL BE FAVORED TO MINIMIZE THE CROSSWIND COMPONENT.

WACO...
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED...AND CONDITIONS WILL ONLY
DETERIORATE FURTHER AS THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE. PRECIPITATION MODE
WILL BE PRIMARILY SHOWERS...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IF THUNDER DOES
OCCUR AT THE WACO TERMINAL...IT IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN WHEN THE
TOWER IS CLOSED AND THERE ARE NO COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS. IFR CIGS/VSBY
WILL PREVAIL DURING MORNING ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES...BUT VEERING
WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY.

25

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
AS I WRITE THIS AN AREA OF VIRGA SITS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. AN OCCASIONAL RAIN DROP MAY MAKE IT
TO THE SURFACE...BUT THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN
750 AND 950 MB. IT WILL TAKE A BIT OF PRECIP TO MOISTEN THIS
LAYER. AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH PRECIP ONSET TIMING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...I HAVE DECREASED QPF SINCE A GOOD PORTION OF OUR
EXPECTED RAIN WILL EVAPORATE AS IT MOISTENS THIS LAYER. MANY
AREAS WILL NOW STRUGGLE TO GET A QUARTER INCH OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A BIT MORE THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THE PRECIP SHOULD ALSO SHUT OFF FASTER SUNDAY AS THE ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ARE
NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX AFTER
NOON.

THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS COASTAL TX TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HAS ITS TRACK SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...AND LOW POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT NORTH AS WELL. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE TRACK SHIFT BACK SOUTH AGAIN
TOMORROW...THAT SEEMS TO BE THE PATTERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE QPF BEHIND THIS
FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO BELOW THE INVERSION AND THIS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL...WITH WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.  84




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  48  57  29  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
WACO, TX              55  51  61  32  47 /  60  80  70  10   5
PARIS, TX             54  44  55  27  42 /  40  90  70  10   5
DENTON, TX            53  45  54  28  44 /  70  90  60  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  46  56  28  43 /  60  90  70  10   5
DALLAS, TX            55  48  58  30  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
TERRELL, TX           56  49  59  30  44 /  50  90  70  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         56  51  61  31  45 /  50  80  70  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            56  52  63  33  48 /  60  70  70  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  46  53  28  46 /  90  80  40  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05






000
FXUS64 KHGX 311809
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1209 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
COMPLICATED TAF PACKAGE WITH MAIN CONCERNS CENTERING AROUND MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS...TIMING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
CROSSING THE AREA...AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM
PRECIPITATION.

MAIN PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH STILL REMAINS WEST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BUT IS SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR. OTHER SUBTLE WAVES IN THE MESSY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HAVE ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO SMALLER POCKETS OF -RA. GIVEN TRAJECTORY
OF MAIN WAVE... THINK RAIN COLLEGE STATION/HUNTSVILLE/POTENTIALLY
CONROE WILL SEE -RA AROUND 00Z AS THE MAIN 500 MB WAVE TRANSLATES
NORTH OF THE REGION. VCSH TO EVEN -RA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING /03-06Z FOR THE HOUSTON TERMINALS/ AS OTHER SUBTLE WAVES
CROSS THE AREA. MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER RAIN...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKING TO CLEAR THE
AREA BETWEEN 10-12Z SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY... CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL REPLACE PERIODS OF VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR BY THIS EVENING WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AS THE REGION LOSES THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE.

THE NEXT CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE STATE ON SUNDAY AND SHOWERS /WITH POTENTIALLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO/ DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
CROSSES THE TERMINALS... REACHING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MID-
MORNING SUNDAY. TTU-WRF RUNS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY ANEMIC
REGARDING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN TOMORROW WITH MORE TIME TO REFINE. COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE TERMINALS AFTER THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...NAM12 AND RAP PROGS ARE SHOWING 975 MB WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 30-35 KNOTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 09-12Z SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD POSE BORDERLINE LLWS CONCERNS DEPENDING ON IF
THESE STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE /OR SURFACE WINDS DECREASE MORE
THAN ANTICIPATED TONIGHT/. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...NO MENTION WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  58  65  37  49 /  40  60  60  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  58  69  41  51 /  20  50  70  20   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  57  64  45  50 /  20  40  50  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 311800
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1159 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Light rain will end at KSJT and KSOA this afternoon and across
the rest of Central Texas this evening. Gradual lowering of IFR
ceilings and IFR/MVFR visibilities is expected this
afternoon/evening however, with loss of the mixing effect of
rain. However, improvement into MVFR to VFR range is expected
Sunday morning as drier air moves in behind a cold front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

All terminals will have MVFR conditions degrading to IFR within
the next several hours as a large area of widespread rain moves
east over all of West Central Texas. Conditions will continue to
deteriorate through today and into the evening hours with
occasional LIFR conditions possible. Conditions are not expected
to begin improving until after 06Z tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low spinning over southern California and the northern Baja
early this morning will continue to split from its parent upper
trough through today. The separated upper low will drift south down
the Baja Peninsula through tonight while the upper trough moves over
West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Large-scale ascent associated
with the upper level system is producing a large area of showers
over West Texas and into the southern Panhandle early this morning.
This area of showers will continue to drift east over our western
counties before sunrise and will envelop the entire forecast area
through the remainder of the day. Have included a chance of isolated
thunder over the forecast area this evening and overnight as the
area of showers continues to move over the area. The chance of
showers will decrease from west to east through tonight. Still
expecting widespread rainfall amounts around 1/2 inch with localized
amounts near 1 1/2 inch in the heavier showers.

Afternoon highs will range from  the upper 40s over the Big Country
to the mid 50s over the southern CWA. Lows tomorrow morning will
only be slightly cooler than the afternoon highs, in the mid 40s
over the Big Country and the lower 50s over the southern CWA.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

A slight chance of showers will continue Sunday, across mainly the
eastern and southern parts of West Central Texas, as the main trough
axis swings east of the region. In addition, a cold front will move
through the area, with drier/cooler air filtering in behind the
boundary. Winds will become light by early morning Monday, allowing
for fairly good radiational cooling conditions. Overnight lows will
range from the mid 20s across the Big Country, to near 30 across the
Interstate 10 corridor. Highs on Monday will be below season
normals, in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Slightly warmer temperatures are in store Tuesday, and will be
dependent on the eventual track of an upper level low. Models have
shifted the track of this low a bit farther north, generally moving
across Central Texas late Tuesday/Wednesday. This track would bring
a chance of showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm, to the
southeast half of the forecast area. For now, only slight chance
PoPs were introduced for this area, as uncertainty remains high on
the eventual track of this low.

A steady warm up will ensue Wednesday with highs back into the mid
to upper 60s, possibly pushing the 70 degree mark. A cold front will
move through the area Wednesday night, bringing a return of slightly
below normal temperatures through the end of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  50  47  52  26  49 / 100  60  20  10   0
San Angelo  54  50  56  29  53 / 100  40  20  10   0
Junction  56  52  61  32  53 /  90  60  30  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04








000
FXUS64 KSJT 311800
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1159 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Light rain will end at KSJT and KSOA this afternoon and across
the rest of Central Texas this evening. Gradual lowering of IFR
ceilings and IFR/MVFR visibilities is expected this
afternoon/evening however, with loss of the mixing effect of
rain. However, improvement into MVFR to VFR range is expected
Sunday morning as drier air moves in behind a cold front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

All terminals will have MVFR conditions degrading to IFR within
the next several hours as a large area of widespread rain moves
east over all of West Central Texas. Conditions will continue to
deteriorate through today and into the evening hours with
occasional LIFR conditions possible. Conditions are not expected
to begin improving until after 06Z tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low spinning over southern California and the northern Baja
early this morning will continue to split from its parent upper
trough through today. The separated upper low will drift south down
the Baja Peninsula through tonight while the upper trough moves over
West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Large-scale ascent associated
with the upper level system is producing a large area of showers
over West Texas and into the southern Panhandle early this morning.
This area of showers will continue to drift east over our western
counties before sunrise and will envelop the entire forecast area
through the remainder of the day. Have included a chance of isolated
thunder over the forecast area this evening and overnight as the
area of showers continues to move over the area. The chance of
showers will decrease from west to east through tonight. Still
expecting widespread rainfall amounts around 1/2 inch with localized
amounts near 1 1/2 inch in the heavier showers.

Afternoon highs will range from  the upper 40s over the Big Country
to the mid 50s over the southern CWA. Lows tomorrow morning will
only be slightly cooler than the afternoon highs, in the mid 40s
over the Big Country and the lower 50s over the southern CWA.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

A slight chance of showers will continue Sunday, across mainly the
eastern and southern parts of West Central Texas, as the main trough
axis swings east of the region. In addition, a cold front will move
through the area, with drier/cooler air filtering in behind the
boundary. Winds will become light by early morning Monday, allowing
for fairly good radiational cooling conditions. Overnight lows will
range from the mid 20s across the Big Country, to near 30 across the
Interstate 10 corridor. Highs on Monday will be below season
normals, in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Slightly warmer temperatures are in store Tuesday, and will be
dependent on the eventual track of an upper level low. Models have
shifted the track of this low a bit farther north, generally moving
across Central Texas late Tuesday/Wednesday. This track would bring
a chance of showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm, to the
southeast half of the forecast area. For now, only slight chance
PoPs were introduced for this area, as uncertainty remains high on
the eventual track of this low.

A steady warm up will ensue Wednesday with highs back into the mid
to upper 60s, possibly pushing the 70 degree mark. A cold front will
move through the area Wednesday night, bringing a return of slightly
below normal temperatures through the end of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  50  47  52  26  49 / 100  60  20  10   0
San Angelo  54  50  56  29  53 / 100  40  20  10   0
Junction  56  52  61  32  53 /  90  60  30  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04








000
FXUS64 KSJT 311800
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1159 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Light rain will end at KSJT and KSOA this afternoon and across
the rest of Central Texas this evening. Gradual lowering of IFR
ceilings and IFR/MVFR visibilities is expected this
afternoon/evening however, with loss of the mixing effect of
rain. However, improvement into MVFR to VFR range is expected
Sunday morning as drier air moves in behind a cold front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

All terminals will have MVFR conditions degrading to IFR within
the next several hours as a large area of widespread rain moves
east over all of West Central Texas. Conditions will continue to
deteriorate through today and into the evening hours with
occasional LIFR conditions possible. Conditions are not expected
to begin improving until after 06Z tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low spinning over southern California and the northern Baja
early this morning will continue to split from its parent upper
trough through today. The separated upper low will drift south down
the Baja Peninsula through tonight while the upper trough moves over
West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Large-scale ascent associated
with the upper level system is producing a large area of showers
over West Texas and into the southern Panhandle early this morning.
This area of showers will continue to drift east over our western
counties before sunrise and will envelop the entire forecast area
through the remainder of the day. Have included a chance of isolated
thunder over the forecast area this evening and overnight as the
area of showers continues to move over the area. The chance of
showers will decrease from west to east through tonight. Still
expecting widespread rainfall amounts around 1/2 inch with localized
amounts near 1 1/2 inch in the heavier showers.

Afternoon highs will range from  the upper 40s over the Big Country
to the mid 50s over the southern CWA. Lows tomorrow morning will
only be slightly cooler than the afternoon highs, in the mid 40s
over the Big Country and the lower 50s over the southern CWA.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

A slight chance of showers will continue Sunday, across mainly the
eastern and southern parts of West Central Texas, as the main trough
axis swings east of the region. In addition, a cold front will move
through the area, with drier/cooler air filtering in behind the
boundary. Winds will become light by early morning Monday, allowing
for fairly good radiational cooling conditions. Overnight lows will
range from the mid 20s across the Big Country, to near 30 across the
Interstate 10 corridor. Highs on Monday will be below season
normals, in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Slightly warmer temperatures are in store Tuesday, and will be
dependent on the eventual track of an upper level low. Models have
shifted the track of this low a bit farther north, generally moving
across Central Texas late Tuesday/Wednesday. This track would bring
a chance of showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm, to the
southeast half of the forecast area. For now, only slight chance
PoPs were introduced for this area, as uncertainty remains high on
the eventual track of this low.

A steady warm up will ensue Wednesday with highs back into the mid
to upper 60s, possibly pushing the 70 degree mark. A cold front will
move through the area Wednesday night, bringing a return of slightly
below normal temperatures through the end of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  50  47  52  26  49 / 100  60  20  10   0
San Angelo  54  50  56  29  53 / 100  40  20  10   0
Junction  56  52  61  32  53 /  90  60  30  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04








000
FXUS64 KSJT 311800
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1159 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Light rain will end at KSJT and KSOA this afternoon and across
the rest of Central Texas this evening. Gradual lowering of IFR
ceilings and IFR/MVFR visibilities is expected this
afternoon/evening however, with loss of the mixing effect of
rain. However, improvement into MVFR to VFR range is expected
Sunday morning as drier air moves in behind a cold front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

All terminals will have MVFR conditions degrading to IFR within
the next several hours as a large area of widespread rain moves
east over all of West Central Texas. Conditions will continue to
deteriorate through today and into the evening hours with
occasional LIFR conditions possible. Conditions are not expected
to begin improving until after 06Z tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low spinning over southern California and the northern Baja
early this morning will continue to split from its parent upper
trough through today. The separated upper low will drift south down
the Baja Peninsula through tonight while the upper trough moves over
West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Large-scale ascent associated
with the upper level system is producing a large area of showers
over West Texas and into the southern Panhandle early this morning.
This area of showers will continue to drift east over our western
counties before sunrise and will envelop the entire forecast area
through the remainder of the day. Have included a chance of isolated
thunder over the forecast area this evening and overnight as the
area of showers continues to move over the area. The chance of
showers will decrease from west to east through tonight. Still
expecting widespread rainfall amounts around 1/2 inch with localized
amounts near 1 1/2 inch in the heavier showers.

Afternoon highs will range from  the upper 40s over the Big Country
to the mid 50s over the southern CWA. Lows tomorrow morning will
only be slightly cooler than the afternoon highs, in the mid 40s
over the Big Country and the lower 50s over the southern CWA.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

A slight chance of showers will continue Sunday, across mainly the
eastern and southern parts of West Central Texas, as the main trough
axis swings east of the region. In addition, a cold front will move
through the area, with drier/cooler air filtering in behind the
boundary. Winds will become light by early morning Monday, allowing
for fairly good radiational cooling conditions. Overnight lows will
range from the mid 20s across the Big Country, to near 30 across the
Interstate 10 corridor. Highs on Monday will be below season
normals, in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Slightly warmer temperatures are in store Tuesday, and will be
dependent on the eventual track of an upper level low. Models have
shifted the track of this low a bit farther north, generally moving
across Central Texas late Tuesday/Wednesday. This track would bring
a chance of showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm, to the
southeast half of the forecast area. For now, only slight chance
PoPs were introduced for this area, as uncertainty remains high on
the eventual track of this low.

A steady warm up will ensue Wednesday with highs back into the mid
to upper 60s, possibly pushing the 70 degree mark. A cold front will
move through the area Wednesday night, bringing a return of slightly
below normal temperatures through the end of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  50  47  52  26  49 / 100  60  20  10   0
San Angelo  54  50  56  29  53 / 100  40  20  10   0
Junction  56  52  61  32  53 /  90  60  30  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04








000
FXUS64 KLUB 311744
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING ON
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL END THIS AFTERNOON TO
LATE EVENING CIGS WILL REMAIN IN IFR TO LIFR WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MOIST LOW LEVELS
WILL ALSO KEEP A CHANCE AT LOWERED VISBYS AS WELL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY SCOURING OUT LOW CIGS AND VISBYS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IS AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING THUS CREATING VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS...PARTICULARY
AT KLBB AND KPVW. DECKS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR AT KPVW AND
KLBB...WITH VFR DECKS OCCURRING AT KCDS. WILL LIKELY SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR DECKS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
HINTS OF THAT ALSO BEING A POSSIBLITY AT KPVW AND KLBB AS METARS
REPORTED SCT IFR DECKS. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. BKN VFR TO MVFR DECKS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT. THERE ARE HINTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES ONCE THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE SITES. EXPECT -RA
TO AFFECT KPVW AND KLBB THROUGH EARLY/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST...WITH LINGERING -RA AT KCDS INTO MOST OF TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01



000
FXUS64 KMAF 311742
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs/vis
affecting terminals through this afternoon. Currently have flight
categories ranging from LIFR at HOB to MVFR at FST, with all other
sites sitting in between at IFR. Expect conditions to improve to VFR
sometime mid afternoon/early evening however low vis could return
after midnight Sunday morning. Went ahead and included mention of BR
at HOB and MAF where confidence is higher and make adjustments
if/when needed. Otherwise, the bulk of RA has moved east of all
terminals but could see some isolated/scattered showers through the
afternoon. A cold front will enter northern portions of the region
mid/late morning Sunday, with gusty north winds expected just beyond
this TAF cycle.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread light to moderate rain is covering much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico early this morning. This precipitation is
occurring in the moist conveyor belt ahead of a large upper level
low pressure system centered across western Arizona. Will continue
likely to categorical pops this morning for rain as this moisture
continues to push eastward across the forecast area. By this
afternoon the moisture belt will be exiting eastward into central
Texas and precipitation chances will decrease to chance category
except in the central and eastern Permian Basin where likely
to categorical pops will continue near the departing moisture.
There could even be some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
near the Rio Grande River where instability will increase ahead
of the upper low.

By tonight through Sunday night the upper level low pressure
system is progged to split. The southern portion will become the
remains of the upper low and move south into Mexico while the
northern portion transitions into a trough. The net effect will be
a weakening of the entire system. Precipitation chances will be on
the decrease with the best chance across mainly areas south of the
Pecos River in west Texas east of the upper level trough axis.
Progged lapse rates and instability suggest isolated thunderstorms
possible.

By Monday through next Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
is forecast to track from southwest Mexico northeast to south central
Texas by Wednesday. As the system approaches the Big Bend late
Tuesday, showers will be possible in the Big Bend and lower Trans
Pecos region. High temperatures are expected to remain below
normal through Monday but warm to above normal levels by next
Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms.

By next Thursday and Friday below normal temperatures are
expected again behind a dry cold front as an upper level
trough moves across the western half of the nation.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 311742
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs/vis
affecting terminals through this afternoon. Currently have flight
categories ranging from LIFR at HOB to MVFR at FST, with all other
sites sitting in between at IFR. Expect conditions to improve to VFR
sometime mid afternoon/early evening however low vis could return
after midnight Sunday morning. Went ahead and included mention of BR
at HOB and MAF where confidence is higher and make adjustments
if/when needed. Otherwise, the bulk of RA has moved east of all
terminals but could see some isolated/scattered showers through the
afternoon. A cold front will enter northern portions of the region
mid/late morning Sunday, with gusty north winds expected just beyond
this TAF cycle.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread light to moderate rain is covering much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico early this morning. This precipitation is
occurring in the moist conveyor belt ahead of a large upper level
low pressure system centered across western Arizona. Will continue
likely to categorical pops this morning for rain as this moisture
continues to push eastward across the forecast area. By this
afternoon the moisture belt will be exiting eastward into central
Texas and precipitation chances will decrease to chance category
except in the central and eastern Permian Basin where likely
to categorical pops will continue near the departing moisture.
There could even be some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
near the Rio Grande River where instability will increase ahead
of the upper low.

By tonight through Sunday night the upper level low pressure
system is progged to split. The southern portion will become the
remains of the upper low and move south into Mexico while the
northern portion transitions into a trough. The net effect will be
a weakening of the entire system. Precipitation chances will be on
the decrease with the best chance across mainly areas south of the
Pecos River in west Texas east of the upper level trough axis.
Progged lapse rates and instability suggest isolated thunderstorms
possible.

By Monday through next Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
is forecast to track from southwest Mexico northeast to south central
Texas by Wednesday. As the system approaches the Big Bend late
Tuesday, showers will be possible in the Big Bend and lower Trans
Pecos region. High temperatures are expected to remain below
normal through Monday but warm to above normal levels by next
Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms.

By next Thursday and Friday below normal temperatures are
expected again behind a dry cold front as an upper level
trough moves across the western half of the nation.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 311742
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs/vis
affecting terminals through this afternoon. Currently have flight
categories ranging from LIFR at HOB to MVFR at FST, with all other
sites sitting in between at IFR. Expect conditions to improve to VFR
sometime mid afternoon/early evening however low vis could return
after midnight Sunday morning. Went ahead and included mention of BR
at HOB and MAF where confidence is higher and make adjustments
if/when needed. Otherwise, the bulk of RA has moved east of all
terminals but could see some isolated/scattered showers through the
afternoon. A cold front will enter northern portions of the region
mid/late morning Sunday, with gusty north winds expected just beyond
this TAF cycle.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread light to moderate rain is covering much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico early this morning. This precipitation is
occurring in the moist conveyor belt ahead of a large upper level
low pressure system centered across western Arizona. Will continue
likely to categorical pops this morning for rain as this moisture
continues to push eastward across the forecast area. By this
afternoon the moisture belt will be exiting eastward into central
Texas and precipitation chances will decrease to chance category
except in the central and eastern Permian Basin where likely
to categorical pops will continue near the departing moisture.
There could even be some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
near the Rio Grande River where instability will increase ahead
of the upper low.

By tonight through Sunday night the upper level low pressure
system is progged to split. The southern portion will become the
remains of the upper low and move south into Mexico while the
northern portion transitions into a trough. The net effect will be
a weakening of the entire system. Precipitation chances will be on
the decrease with the best chance across mainly areas south of the
Pecos River in west Texas east of the upper level trough axis.
Progged lapse rates and instability suggest isolated thunderstorms
possible.

By Monday through next Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
is forecast to track from southwest Mexico northeast to south central
Texas by Wednesday. As the system approaches the Big Bend late
Tuesday, showers will be possible in the Big Bend and lower Trans
Pecos region. High temperatures are expected to remain below
normal through Monday but warm to above normal levels by next
Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms.

By next Thursday and Friday below normal temperatures are
expected again behind a dry cold front as an upper level
trough moves across the western half of the nation.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 311742
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs/vis
affecting terminals through this afternoon. Currently have flight
categories ranging from LIFR at HOB to MVFR at FST, with all other
sites sitting in between at IFR. Expect conditions to improve to VFR
sometime mid afternoon/early evening however low vis could return
after midnight Sunday morning. Went ahead and included mention of BR
at HOB and MAF where confidence is higher and make adjustments
if/when needed. Otherwise, the bulk of RA has moved east of all
terminals but could see some isolated/scattered showers through the
afternoon. A cold front will enter northern portions of the region
mid/late morning Sunday, with gusty north winds expected just beyond
this TAF cycle.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread light to moderate rain is covering much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico early this morning. This precipitation is
occurring in the moist conveyor belt ahead of a large upper level
low pressure system centered across western Arizona. Will continue
likely to categorical pops this morning for rain as this moisture
continues to push eastward across the forecast area. By this
afternoon the moisture belt will be exiting eastward into central
Texas and precipitation chances will decrease to chance category
except in the central and eastern Permian Basin where likely
to categorical pops will continue near the departing moisture.
There could even be some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
near the Rio Grande River where instability will increase ahead
of the upper low.

By tonight through Sunday night the upper level low pressure
system is progged to split. The southern portion will become the
remains of the upper low and move south into Mexico while the
northern portion transitions into a trough. The net effect will be
a weakening of the entire system. Precipitation chances will be on
the decrease with the best chance across mainly areas south of the
Pecos River in west Texas east of the upper level trough axis.
Progged lapse rates and instability suggest isolated thunderstorms
possible.

By Monday through next Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
is forecast to track from southwest Mexico northeast to south central
Texas by Wednesday. As the system approaches the Big Bend late
Tuesday, showers will be possible in the Big Bend and lower Trans
Pecos region. High temperatures are expected to remain below
normal through Monday but warm to above normal levels by next
Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms.

By next Thursday and Friday below normal temperatures are
expected again behind a dry cold front as an upper level
trough moves across the western half of the nation.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KAMA 311740
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1140 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE START OF
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. GENERALLY EXPECT A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
END AT THE TERMINALS AROUND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO IMPACT KGUY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT HAVE
LEFT OUT OF PREVAILING CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. SHOULD THIS
PRECIP OCCUR IT COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. TOMORROW MORNING A
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH AND INCREASE INTO THE 20KT RANGE.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS
FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WAS TOO MUCH OF A WARM NOSE
ACCORDING TO LAST NIGHT/S AMA SOUNDING TO GET MUCH FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THIS WARM NOSE WILL ONLY GET DEEPER AND WARMER
TODAY...SO HAVE SWITCHED ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
LIQUID. SOME SNOW MAY TRY TO MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION AS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY
THEN.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH
SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK UP ABOVE
NORMAL BY TUESDAY BEFORE GETTING KNOCKED DOWN AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEK FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE A LITTLE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRIES TO NUDGE IT/S WAY EAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09






000
FXUS64 KCRP 311740
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1140 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE BRIEFLY VFR CONDITIONS. RAIN IS MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...CURRENTLY FROM SAT...TO COT...TO LRD. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTICED IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN
AREA. FOR MOST AREAS BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z TONIGHT. VCT COULD HOLD RAIN LONGER. OTHER AREAS...HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE STARTING TO IMPROVE AT VERY END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD. INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS FOR LRD BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT HAVE OTHERS STILL IN MVFR/IFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO RISE TO MVFR LVLS THROUGH
THE MID MORNING. LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWERING LATE OVERNIGHT BACK DOWN TO IFR
CRITERIA AFTER 06Z. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE AT AND AROUND
THE LRD TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY...AND INCREASING OVER THE REST OF
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z RAIN CHANCES DECREASE...AND
DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF SHRA AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY (THROUGH HIGHER CHANCES REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST) WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
DISTURBANCES LIFTING AROUND AND ACROSS THE REGION. AS TROUGH
TRACKS EASTWARD ANTICIPATED DRYING TO THEN OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LESS HIGH IN
MUCH DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK SOME LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...KEEPING MAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A GOOD BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS MORE DRYING OCCURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
SLOWING UPPER TROUGH EVEN MORE THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH OFTEN HAPPENS
WITH A CLOSED-OFF SYSTEM LIKE THIS FOR TIME OF YEAR. CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST (ALL WITHIN 12-18 HOURS OF EACH
OTHER). WILL DELAY PASSAGE OF TROUGH ABOUT ANOTHER 12 HOURS...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SYSTEM IS MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION
(IF NOT A BIT SLOWER) BY THE 00Z SUNDAY RUN. ALSO...MODELS ARE GOING
FARTHER SOUTH (IN PART EXPLAINING THE SLOWER SYSTEM) AS PREVIOUS
RUNS. THUS...BEST SHOT OF RAIN NOW APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
NOT TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS AND GULFMEX. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY (UNLESS UPPER SYSTEM IS SLOWER AND THUS DRYING
WILL BE SLOWER). SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE ONCE SYSTEM PASSES EAST (IF IT
DOES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMING DOWN
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. NICE BUT COOL ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DAMP ON
TUESDAY BUT WARMER ON WEDNESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...UNLESS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN. TURNING
COOLER ON THURSDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ISC
COLLABORATION.

BEFORE TUESDAY...QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
FRONT...MAINLY TOWARD THE EASTERN AREAS/GULFMEX AND NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS IN THE GULF WATERS IN EXCESS OF GALE
FORCE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME (AFTER
DISCUSSION WITH KBRO AND KHGX). MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTH ON MONDAY
TO PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO RAIN
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS
IMPACTS FROM UPPER SYSTEM STILL WEST AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
DELAYED. STAYING CLOSER TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  61  75  46  56  /  20  50  20  40  10
VICTORIA          69  59  72  40  54  /  30  50  40  30  10
LAREDO            74  59  76  48  54  /  50  50  10  30  10
ALICE             73  60  77  45  56  /  20  60  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          69  62  70  43  54  /  20  40  30  40  10
COTULLA           68  57  72  44  56  /  50  50  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  61  78  46  56  /  20  50  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  62  70  49  55  /  20  40  20  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 311740
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1140 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE BRIEFLY VFR CONDITIONS. RAIN IS MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...CURRENTLY FROM SAT...TO COT...TO LRD. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTICED IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN
AREA. FOR MOST AREAS BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z TONIGHT. VCT COULD HOLD RAIN LONGER. OTHER AREAS...HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE STARTING TO IMPROVE AT VERY END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD. INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS FOR LRD BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT HAVE OTHERS STILL IN MVFR/IFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO RISE TO MVFR LVLS THROUGH
THE MID MORNING. LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWERING LATE OVERNIGHT BACK DOWN TO IFR
CRITERIA AFTER 06Z. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE AT AND AROUND
THE LRD TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY...AND INCREASING OVER THE REST OF
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z RAIN CHANCES DECREASE...AND
DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF SHRA AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY (THROUGH HIGHER CHANCES REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST) WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
DISTURBANCES LIFTING AROUND AND ACROSS THE REGION. AS TROUGH
TRACKS EASTWARD ANTICIPATED DRYING TO THEN OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LESS HIGH IN
MUCH DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK SOME LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...KEEPING MAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A GOOD BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS MORE DRYING OCCURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
SLOWING UPPER TROUGH EVEN MORE THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH OFTEN HAPPENS
WITH A CLOSED-OFF SYSTEM LIKE THIS FOR TIME OF YEAR. CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST (ALL WITHIN 12-18 HOURS OF EACH
OTHER). WILL DELAY PASSAGE OF TROUGH ABOUT ANOTHER 12 HOURS...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SYSTEM IS MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION
(IF NOT A BIT SLOWER) BY THE 00Z SUNDAY RUN. ALSO...MODELS ARE GOING
FARTHER SOUTH (IN PART EXPLAINING THE SLOWER SYSTEM) AS PREVIOUS
RUNS. THUS...BEST SHOT OF RAIN NOW APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
NOT TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS AND GULFMEX. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY (UNLESS UPPER SYSTEM IS SLOWER AND THUS DRYING
WILL BE SLOWER). SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE ONCE SYSTEM PASSES EAST (IF IT
DOES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMING DOWN
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. NICE BUT COOL ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DAMP ON
TUESDAY BUT WARMER ON WEDNESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...UNLESS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN. TURNING
COOLER ON THURSDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ISC
COLLABORATION.

BEFORE TUESDAY...QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
FRONT...MAINLY TOWARD THE EASTERN AREAS/GULFMEX AND NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS IN THE GULF WATERS IN EXCESS OF GALE
FORCE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME (AFTER
DISCUSSION WITH KBRO AND KHGX). MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTH ON MONDAY
TO PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO RAIN
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS
IMPACTS FROM UPPER SYSTEM STILL WEST AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
DELAYED. STAYING CLOSER TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  61  75  46  56  /  20  50  20  40  10
VICTORIA          69  59  72  40  54  /  30  50  40  30  10
LAREDO            74  59  76  48  54  /  50  50  10  30  10
ALICE             73  60  77  45  56  /  20  60  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          69  62  70  43  54  /  20  40  30  40  10
COTULLA           68  57  72  44  56  /  50  50  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  61  78  46  56  /  20  50  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  62  70  49  55  /  20  40  20  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KAMA 311740
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1140 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE START OF
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. GENERALLY EXPECT A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
END AT THE TERMINALS AROUND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO IMPACT KGUY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT HAVE
LEFT OUT OF PREVAILING CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. SHOULD THIS
PRECIP OCCUR IT COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. TOMORROW MORNING A
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH AND INCREASE INTO THE 20KT RANGE.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS
FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WAS TOO MUCH OF A WARM NOSE
ACCORDING TO LAST NIGHT/S AMA SOUNDING TO GET MUCH FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THIS WARM NOSE WILL ONLY GET DEEPER AND WARMER
TODAY...SO HAVE SWITCHED ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
LIQUID. SOME SNOW MAY TRY TO MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION AS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY
THEN.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH
SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK UP ABOVE
NORMAL BY TUESDAY BEFORE GETTING KNOCKED DOWN AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEK FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE A LITTLE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRIES TO NUDGE IT/S WAY EAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09






000
FXUS64 KCRP 311740
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1140 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE BRIEFLY VFR CONDITIONS. RAIN IS MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...CURRENTLY FROM SAT...TO COT...TO LRD. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTICED IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN
AREA. FOR MOST AREAS BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z TONIGHT. VCT COULD HOLD RAIN LONGER. OTHER AREAS...HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE STARTING TO IMPROVE AT VERY END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD. INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS FOR LRD BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT HAVE OTHERS STILL IN MVFR/IFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO RISE TO MVFR LVLS THROUGH
THE MID MORNING. LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWERING LATE OVERNIGHT BACK DOWN TO IFR
CRITERIA AFTER 06Z. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE AT AND AROUND
THE LRD TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY...AND INCREASING OVER THE REST OF
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z RAIN CHANCES DECREASE...AND
DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF SHRA AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY (THROUGH HIGHER CHANCES REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST) WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
DISTURBANCES LIFTING AROUND AND ACROSS THE REGION. AS TROUGH
TRACKS EASTWARD ANTICIPATED DRYING TO THEN OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LESS HIGH IN
MUCH DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK SOME LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...KEEPING MAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A GOOD BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS MORE DRYING OCCURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
SLOWING UPPER TROUGH EVEN MORE THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH OFTEN HAPPENS
WITH A CLOSED-OFF SYSTEM LIKE THIS FOR TIME OF YEAR. CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST (ALL WITHIN 12-18 HOURS OF EACH
OTHER). WILL DELAY PASSAGE OF TROUGH ABOUT ANOTHER 12 HOURS...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SYSTEM IS MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION
(IF NOT A BIT SLOWER) BY THE 00Z SUNDAY RUN. ALSO...MODELS ARE GOING
FARTHER SOUTH (IN PART EXPLAINING THE SLOWER SYSTEM) AS PREVIOUS
RUNS. THUS...BEST SHOT OF RAIN NOW APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
NOT TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS AND GULFMEX. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY (UNLESS UPPER SYSTEM IS SLOWER AND THUS DRYING
WILL BE SLOWER). SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE ONCE SYSTEM PASSES EAST (IF IT
DOES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMING DOWN
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. NICE BUT COOL ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DAMP ON
TUESDAY BUT WARMER ON WEDNESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...UNLESS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN. TURNING
COOLER ON THURSDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ISC
COLLABORATION.

BEFORE TUESDAY...QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
FRONT...MAINLY TOWARD THE EASTERN AREAS/GULFMEX AND NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS IN THE GULF WATERS IN EXCESS OF GALE
FORCE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME (AFTER
DISCUSSION WITH KBRO AND KHGX). MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTH ON MONDAY
TO PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO RAIN
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS
IMPACTS FROM UPPER SYSTEM STILL WEST AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
DELAYED. STAYING CLOSER TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  61  75  46  56  /  20  50  20  40  10
VICTORIA          69  59  72  40  54  /  30  50  40  30  10
LAREDO            74  59  76  48  54  /  50  50  10  30  10
ALICE             73  60  77  45  56  /  20  60  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          69  62  70  43  54  /  20  40  30  40  10
COTULLA           68  57  72  44  56  /  50  50  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  61  78  46  56  /  20  50  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  62  70  49  55  /  20  40  20  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 311740
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1140 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE BRIEFLY VFR CONDITIONS. RAIN IS MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...CURRENTLY FROM SAT...TO COT...TO LRD. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTICED IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN
AREA. FOR MOST AREAS BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z TONIGHT. VCT COULD HOLD RAIN LONGER. OTHER AREAS...HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE STARTING TO IMPROVE AT VERY END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD. INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS FOR LRD BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT HAVE OTHERS STILL IN MVFR/IFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO RISE TO MVFR LVLS THROUGH
THE MID MORNING. LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWERING LATE OVERNIGHT BACK DOWN TO IFR
CRITERIA AFTER 06Z. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE AT AND AROUND
THE LRD TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY...AND INCREASING OVER THE REST OF
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z RAIN CHANCES DECREASE...AND
DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF SHRA AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY (THROUGH HIGHER CHANCES REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST) WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
DISTURBANCES LIFTING AROUND AND ACROSS THE REGION. AS TROUGH
TRACKS EASTWARD ANTICIPATED DRYING TO THEN OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LESS HIGH IN
MUCH DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK SOME LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...KEEPING MAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A GOOD BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS MORE DRYING OCCURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
SLOWING UPPER TROUGH EVEN MORE THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH OFTEN HAPPENS
WITH A CLOSED-OFF SYSTEM LIKE THIS FOR TIME OF YEAR. CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST (ALL WITHIN 12-18 HOURS OF EACH
OTHER). WILL DELAY PASSAGE OF TROUGH ABOUT ANOTHER 12 HOURS...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SYSTEM IS MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION
(IF NOT A BIT SLOWER) BY THE 00Z SUNDAY RUN. ALSO...MODELS ARE GOING
FARTHER SOUTH (IN PART EXPLAINING THE SLOWER SYSTEM) AS PREVIOUS
RUNS. THUS...BEST SHOT OF RAIN NOW APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
NOT TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS AND GULFMEX. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY (UNLESS UPPER SYSTEM IS SLOWER AND THUS DRYING
WILL BE SLOWER). SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE ONCE SYSTEM PASSES EAST (IF IT
DOES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMING DOWN
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. NICE BUT COOL ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DAMP ON
TUESDAY BUT WARMER ON WEDNESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...UNLESS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN. TURNING
COOLER ON THURSDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ISC
COLLABORATION.

BEFORE TUESDAY...QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
FRONT...MAINLY TOWARD THE EASTERN AREAS/GULFMEX AND NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS IN THE GULF WATERS IN EXCESS OF GALE
FORCE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME (AFTER
DISCUSSION WITH KBRO AND KHGX). MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTH ON MONDAY
TO PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO RAIN
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS
IMPACTS FROM UPPER SYSTEM STILL WEST AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
DELAYED. STAYING CLOSER TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  61  75  46  56  /  20  50  20  40  10
VICTORIA          69  59  72  40  54  /  30  50  40  30  10
LAREDO            74  59  76  48  54  /  50  50  10  30  10
ALICE             73  60  77  45  56  /  20  60  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          69  62  70  43  54  /  20  40  30  40  10
COTULLA           68  57  72  44  56  /  50  50  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  61  78  46  56  /  20  50  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  62  70  49  55  /  20  40  20  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KAMA 311740
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1140 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE START OF
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. GENERALLY EXPECT A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
END AT THE TERMINALS AROUND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO IMPACT KGUY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT HAVE
LEFT OUT OF PREVAILING CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. SHOULD THIS
PRECIP OCCUR IT COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. TOMORROW MORNING A
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH AND INCREASE INTO THE 20KT RANGE.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS
FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WAS TOO MUCH OF A WARM NOSE
ACCORDING TO LAST NIGHT/S AMA SOUNDING TO GET MUCH FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THIS WARM NOSE WILL ONLY GET DEEPER AND WARMER
TODAY...SO HAVE SWITCHED ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
LIQUID. SOME SNOW MAY TRY TO MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION AS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY
THEN.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH
SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK UP ABOVE
NORMAL BY TUESDAY BEFORE GETTING KNOCKED DOWN AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEK FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE A LITTLE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRIES TO NUDGE IT/S WAY EAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09






000
FXUS64 KCRP 311740
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1140 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE BRIEFLY VFR CONDITIONS. RAIN IS MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...CURRENTLY FROM SAT...TO COT...TO LRD. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTICED IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN
AREA. FOR MOST AREAS BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z TONIGHT. VCT COULD HOLD RAIN LONGER. OTHER AREAS...HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE STARTING TO IMPROVE AT VERY END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD. INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS FOR LRD BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT HAVE OTHERS STILL IN MVFR/IFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO RISE TO MVFR LVLS THROUGH
THE MID MORNING. LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWERING LATE OVERNIGHT BACK DOWN TO IFR
CRITERIA AFTER 06Z. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE AT AND AROUND
THE LRD TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY...AND INCREASING OVER THE REST OF
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z RAIN CHANCES DECREASE...AND
DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF SHRA AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY (THROUGH HIGHER CHANCES REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST) WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
DISTURBANCES LIFTING AROUND AND ACROSS THE REGION. AS TROUGH
TRACKS EASTWARD ANTICIPATED DRYING TO THEN OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LESS HIGH IN
MUCH DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK SOME LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...KEEPING MAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A GOOD BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS MORE DRYING OCCURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
SLOWING UPPER TROUGH EVEN MORE THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH OFTEN HAPPENS
WITH A CLOSED-OFF SYSTEM LIKE THIS FOR TIME OF YEAR. CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST (ALL WITHIN 12-18 HOURS OF EACH
OTHER). WILL DELAY PASSAGE OF TROUGH ABOUT ANOTHER 12 HOURS...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SYSTEM IS MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION
(IF NOT A BIT SLOWER) BY THE 00Z SUNDAY RUN. ALSO...MODELS ARE GOING
FARTHER SOUTH (IN PART EXPLAINING THE SLOWER SYSTEM) AS PREVIOUS
RUNS. THUS...BEST SHOT OF RAIN NOW APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
NOT TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS AND GULFMEX. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY (UNLESS UPPER SYSTEM IS SLOWER AND THUS DRYING
WILL BE SLOWER). SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE ONCE SYSTEM PASSES EAST (IF IT
DOES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMING DOWN
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. NICE BUT COOL ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DAMP ON
TUESDAY BUT WARMER ON WEDNESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...UNLESS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN. TURNING
COOLER ON THURSDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ISC
COLLABORATION.

BEFORE TUESDAY...QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
FRONT...MAINLY TOWARD THE EASTERN AREAS/GULFMEX AND NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS IN THE GULF WATERS IN EXCESS OF GALE
FORCE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME (AFTER
DISCUSSION WITH KBRO AND KHGX). MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTH ON MONDAY
TO PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO RAIN
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS
IMPACTS FROM UPPER SYSTEM STILL WEST AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
DELAYED. STAYING CLOSER TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  61  75  46  56  /  20  50  20  40  10
VICTORIA          69  59  72  40  54  /  30  50  40  30  10
LAREDO            74  59  76  48  54  /  50  50  10  30  10
ALICE             73  60  77  45  56  /  20  60  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          69  62  70  43  54  /  20  40  30  40  10
COTULLA           68  57  72  44  56  /  50  50  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  61  78  46  56  /  20  50  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  62  70  49  55  /  20  40  20  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 311740
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1140 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE BRIEFLY VFR CONDITIONS. RAIN IS MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...CURRENTLY FROM SAT...TO COT...TO LRD. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTICED IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN
AREA. FOR MOST AREAS BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z TONIGHT. VCT COULD HOLD RAIN LONGER. OTHER AREAS...HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WILL EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE STARTING TO IMPROVE AT VERY END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD. INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS FOR LRD BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BUT HAVE OTHERS STILL IN MVFR/IFR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO RISE TO MVFR LVLS THROUGH
THE MID MORNING. LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWERING LATE OVERNIGHT BACK DOWN TO IFR
CRITERIA AFTER 06Z. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE AT AND AROUND
THE LRD TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY...AND INCREASING OVER THE REST OF
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z RAIN CHANCES DECREASE...AND
DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF SHRA AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY (THROUGH HIGHER CHANCES REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST) WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
DISTURBANCES LIFTING AROUND AND ACROSS THE REGION. AS TROUGH
TRACKS EASTWARD ANTICIPATED DRYING TO THEN OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LESS HIGH IN
MUCH DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK SOME LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...KEEPING MAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A GOOD BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS MORE DRYING OCCURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
SLOWING UPPER TROUGH EVEN MORE THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH OFTEN HAPPENS
WITH A CLOSED-OFF SYSTEM LIKE THIS FOR TIME OF YEAR. CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST (ALL WITHIN 12-18 HOURS OF EACH
OTHER). WILL DELAY PASSAGE OF TROUGH ABOUT ANOTHER 12 HOURS...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SYSTEM IS MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION
(IF NOT A BIT SLOWER) BY THE 00Z SUNDAY RUN. ALSO...MODELS ARE GOING
FARTHER SOUTH (IN PART EXPLAINING THE SLOWER SYSTEM) AS PREVIOUS
RUNS. THUS...BEST SHOT OF RAIN NOW APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
NOT TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS AND GULFMEX. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY (UNLESS UPPER SYSTEM IS SLOWER AND THUS DRYING
WILL BE SLOWER). SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE ONCE SYSTEM PASSES EAST (IF IT
DOES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMING DOWN
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. NICE BUT COOL ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DAMP ON
TUESDAY BUT WARMER ON WEDNESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...UNLESS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN. TURNING
COOLER ON THURSDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ISC
COLLABORATION.

BEFORE TUESDAY...QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
FRONT...MAINLY TOWARD THE EASTERN AREAS/GULFMEX AND NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS IN THE GULF WATERS IN EXCESS OF GALE
FORCE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME (AFTER
DISCUSSION WITH KBRO AND KHGX). MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTH ON MONDAY
TO PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO RAIN
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS
IMPACTS FROM UPPER SYSTEM STILL WEST AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
DELAYED. STAYING CLOSER TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  61  75  46  56  /  20  50  20  40  10
VICTORIA          69  59  72  40  54  /  30  50  40  30  10
LAREDO            74  59  76  48  54  /  50  50  10  30  10
ALICE             73  60  77  45  56  /  20  60  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          69  62  70  43  54  /  20  40  30  40  10
COTULLA           68  57  72  44  56  /  50  50  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  61  78  46  56  /  20  50  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  62  70  49  55  /  20  40  20  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KAMA 311740
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1140 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE START OF
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. GENERALLY EXPECT A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
END AT THE TERMINALS AROUND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO IMPACT KGUY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT HAVE
LEFT OUT OF PREVAILING CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. SHOULD THIS
PRECIP OCCUR IT COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. TOMORROW MORNING A
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TO SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH AND INCREASE INTO THE 20KT RANGE.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS
FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WAS TOO MUCH OF A WARM NOSE
ACCORDING TO LAST NIGHT/S AMA SOUNDING TO GET MUCH FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THIS WARM NOSE WILL ONLY GET DEEPER AND WARMER
TODAY...SO HAVE SWITCHED ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
LIQUID. SOME SNOW MAY TRY TO MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION AS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY
THEN.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH
SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK UP ABOVE
NORMAL BY TUESDAY BEFORE GETTING KNOCKED DOWN AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEK FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE A LITTLE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRIES TO NUDGE IT/S WAY EAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/09





000
FXUS64 KBRO 311732 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1132 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH CIGS BELOW VFR IN ZAPATA/JIM HOGG AND STARR
COUNTIES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN THOSE AREAS. IN THE
VALLEY VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AT ABOUT 3500 FT LOOK LIKELY WITH
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS BUT LIKELY NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP. CIGS WILL DROP A FEW HUNDRED FEET TONIGHT INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF THROUGH THE DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...PROBABLY WITH CIGS ABOVE 3000FT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z MONDAY. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO INCREASE TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH SOME LOWER
CLOUDS APPROACHING MVFR LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
INVERSION AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO INCREASE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OF MEXICO WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
BECOME STRONG WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW SPINNING OVER SOCAL AND BAJA CA. LOTS OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HELPING TO SPREAD HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO NE MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA CHANCES TO REMAIN LOW THIS
WEEKEND WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND NEED LIFT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
ABSENT ACROSS THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS WITH
DIFFLUENCE INCREASING AND AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.

TODAY...AS MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES OVER WEST TEXAS AND
PRESSURE BEGIN TO LOWER LEESIDE TROUGHING TO STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
MEXICO PLATEAU. SOUTHEAST 925-850 FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
YESTERDAY TODAY WILL SEE A MORE TYPICAL SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER REGIME.
WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH INCREASING THE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES NOT ESPECIALLY WARM BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEY AND
RANCHLANDS. MODEL POP GUIDANCE IS BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE EAST BUT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW GRADE POPS
IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SEVERAL
SPOKES OF ENERGY SEEN OVER NW MEXICO ROTATING NE AROUND THE TROUGH.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS VERY
HIGH ON THE 12 HOUR POPS BUT CONSERVATIVE ON THE 6 HOUR. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE  PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST AND
LOWER GRADE RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST. VERY MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...INTERESTING DAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXITING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN
THE MORNING. LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND 700-850MB TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A STRONG CAP
DEVELOPING. DOWNSLOPING AND THE WARM TO MIX OUT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
SQUASHING ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT THIS BUT
DECIDED TO GO HIGHER. MOST AREA WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S WITH EVEN
THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACH MAKING IT A REALLY SUPER SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
SUPPORTED BY A NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH AND TO A LESSER EXTENT A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON MONDAY
WITH SPEEDS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. WILL BE NOTICABLY COLDER THAN
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 30 DEGREES COLDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AT LEAST MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE
AREAS WITH CHANCES WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS
INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL
TODAY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST. SCEC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO SLOWLY RELAX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. A LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH POSSIBLE GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN HIGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AS A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH TUES NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW/TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/54



000
FXUS64 KBRO 311732 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1132 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH CIGS BELOW VFR IN ZAPATA/JIM HOGG AND STARR
COUNTIES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN THOSE AREAS. IN THE
VALLEY VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AT ABOUT 3500 FT LOOK LIKELY WITH
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS BUT LIKELY NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP. CIGS WILL DROP A FEW HUNDRED FEET TONIGHT INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF THROUGH THE DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...PROBABLY WITH CIGS ABOVE 3000FT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z MONDAY. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO INCREASE TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH SOME LOWER
CLOUDS APPROACHING MVFR LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
INVERSION AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO INCREASE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OF MEXICO WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
BECOME STRONG WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW SPINNING OVER SOCAL AND BAJA CA. LOTS OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HELPING TO SPREAD HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO NE MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA CHANCES TO REMAIN LOW THIS
WEEKEND WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND NEED LIFT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
ABSENT ACROSS THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS WITH
DIFFLUENCE INCREASING AND AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.

TODAY...AS MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES OVER WEST TEXAS AND
PRESSURE BEGIN TO LOWER LEESIDE TROUGHING TO STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
MEXICO PLATEAU. SOUTHEAST 925-850 FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
YESTERDAY TODAY WILL SEE A MORE TYPICAL SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER REGIME.
WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH INCREASING THE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES NOT ESPECIALLY WARM BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEY AND
RANCHLANDS. MODEL POP GUIDANCE IS BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE EAST BUT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW GRADE POPS
IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SEVERAL
SPOKES OF ENERGY SEEN OVER NW MEXICO ROTATING NE AROUND THE TROUGH.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS VERY
HIGH ON THE 12 HOUR POPS BUT CONSERVATIVE ON THE 6 HOUR. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE  PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST AND
LOWER GRADE RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST. VERY MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...INTERESTING DAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXITING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN
THE MORNING. LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND 700-850MB TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A STRONG CAP
DEVELOPING. DOWNSLOPING AND THE WARM TO MIX OUT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
SQUASHING ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT THIS BUT
DECIDED TO GO HIGHER. MOST AREA WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S WITH EVEN
THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACH MAKING IT A REALLY SUPER SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
SUPPORTED BY A NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH AND TO A LESSER EXTENT A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON MONDAY
WITH SPEEDS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. WILL BE NOTICABLY COLDER THAN
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 30 DEGREES COLDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AT LEAST MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE
AREAS WITH CHANCES WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS
INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL
TODAY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST. SCEC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO SLOWLY RELAX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. A LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH POSSIBLE GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN HIGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AS A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH TUES NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW/TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/54




000
FXUS64 KEWX 311710
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1110 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
AT THIS HOUR AUS IS STILL MVFR WHILE SAT/SSF/DRT ARE A MIX OF
IFR/LIFR DUE TO PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN HAS
MOVED OUT OF DRT BUT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH 21Z. IFR CIGS SHOULD STICK AROUND AT DRT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO LIFR WITH LOW VISBY TOMORROW MORNING
FOR A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS AT DRT WILL IMPROVE MY 16Z SUNDAY.

THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CLUSTER OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM KERRVILLE SOUTH TO
HONDO AND COTULLA. THE MODELS BRING THIS BATCH OF RAIN INTO SAN
ANTONIO BY 18Z/19Z AND INTO AUSTIN BY 21Z. THE TAFS REFLECT THIS
WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO LIFR CIGS DURING THE RAIN. RAIN ENDS
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 03Z WITH CIGS AND VISBY REMAINING A MIX
OF IFR/MVFR. WILL SEE FOG AND LOWER CIGS TOWARDS MORNING ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AS WELL...MAINLY AT THE SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS. FLIGHT
RULE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT THE I-35 TERMINALS AROUND
NOON TOMORROW.

WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 6 AND 12 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AND WILL
PASS THROUGH DRT BY 16Z SUNDAY. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE I-35
TERMINALS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

UPDATE...
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. AT LOWER LEVELS...A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45
TO 50 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS INJECTING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA AND HELPING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
REMAINS RELATIVE DRY AS DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE 7 TO 8 DEGREES LOWER
THAN AIR TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGUN TO
MOISTEN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS LIGHT NEW RADAR ECHOES SHOWED
ON LAST RADAR VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT RAINS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING WITH EPISODES OF MODERATE RAINS AND EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
RAIN ALREADY IMPACTING KDRT THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS BY MID DAY. EXPECTING IFR
CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS WHILE RAIN IS FALLING. THIS RAINFALL WILL
PUSH THROUGH AND CLEAR KAUS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOIST SFC
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FOG AND CONTINUED LOW CIGS UNTIL AT LEAST
MID MORNING TOMORROW. INCLUDED AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FOR THE 30
HR TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING. TAF AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS CONDITIONS WAVER. EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LOWERING
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN 3RD OF THE CWA AND PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING FROM SW TO NE...WITH DEW POINTS MODIFYING BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WEST OF I-35. THE RAIN THEN EXPANDS
EAST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA
THIS EVENING...EXITING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF I-35 TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED WEAKER
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA...AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS AND SAN ANTONIO SUNDAY EVENING. LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
DRYING AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT EDGE. DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS TAKES PLACES MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY AND SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES NOW TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EWX CWA. STILL ROOM FOR
SIGNIFICANT ERROR THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH SYSTEMS THIS FAR
SOUTH COMING OUT OF MEXICO...THEREFORE NO HIGHER THAN 20-40 POPS
AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND CMC
TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  57  66  37  51 /  90  80  30  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  56  66  37  50 /  90  70  30  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  57  68  39  52 /  80  70  30  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  53  62  33  49 /  90  80  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  52  67  41  55 /  90  30  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  55  63  34  49 /  90  80  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  55  69  39  55 /  90  60  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  56  67  38  51 /  90  70  30  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  57  67  39  51 /  60  70  50  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  56  68  39  53 /  90  70  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  56  69  41  54 /  80  70  30  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 311628 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1028 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. AT LOWER LEVELS...A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45
TO 50 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS INJECTING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA AND HELPING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
REMAINS RELATIVE DRY AS DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE 7 TO 8 DEGREES LOWER
THAN AIR TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGUN TO
MOISTEN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS LIGHT NEW RADAR ECHOES SHOWED
ON LAST RADAR VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT RAINS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING WITH EPISODES OF MODERATE RAINS AND EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
RAIN ALREADY IMPACTING KDRT THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS BY MID DAY. EXPECTING IFR
CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS WHILE RAIN IS FALLING. THIS RAINFALL WILL
PUSH THROUGH AND CLEAR KAUS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOIST SFC
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FOG AND CONTINUED LOW CIGS UNTIL AT LEAST
MID MORNING TOMORROW. INCLUDED AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FOR THE 30
HR TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING. TAF AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS CONDITIONS WAVER. EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LOWERING
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN 3RD OF THE CWA AND PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING FROM SW TO NE...WITH DEW POINTS MODIFYING BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WEST OF I-35. THE RAIN THEN EXPANDS
EAST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA
THIS EVENING...EXITING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF I-35 TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED WEAKER
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA...AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS AND SAN ANTONIO SUNDAY EVENING. LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
DRYING AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT EDGE. DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS TAKES PLACES MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY AND SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES NOW TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EWX CWA. STILL ROOM FOR
SIGNIFICANT ERROR THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH SYSTEMS THIS FAR
SOUTH COMING OUT OF MEXICO...THEREFORE NO HIGHER THAN 20-40 POPS
AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND CMC
TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  57  66  37  51 /  90  80  30  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  56  66  37  50 /  90  70  30  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  57  68  39  52 /  80  70  30  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  53  62  33  49 /  90  80  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  52  67  41  55 /  90  30  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  55  63  34  49 /  90  80  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  55  69  39  55 /  90  60  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  56  67  38  51 /  90  70  30  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  57  67  39  51 /  60  70  50  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  56  68  39  53 /  90  70  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  56  69  41  54 /  80  70  30  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 311628 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1028 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. AT LOWER LEVELS...A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45
TO 50 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS INJECTING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA AND HELPING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
REMAINS RELATIVE DRY AS DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE 7 TO 8 DEGREES LOWER
THAN AIR TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGUN TO
MOISTEN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS LIGHT NEW RADAR ECHOES SHOWED
ON LAST RADAR VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT RAINS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING WITH EPISODES OF MODERATE RAINS AND EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
RAIN ALREADY IMPACTING KDRT THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS BY MID DAY. EXPECTING IFR
CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS WHILE RAIN IS FALLING. THIS RAINFALL WILL
PUSH THROUGH AND CLEAR KAUS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOIST SFC
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FOG AND CONTINUED LOW CIGS UNTIL AT LEAST
MID MORNING TOMORROW. INCLUDED AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FOR THE 30
HR TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING. TAF AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS CONDITIONS WAVER. EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LOWERING
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN 3RD OF THE CWA AND PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING FROM SW TO NE...WITH DEW POINTS MODIFYING BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WEST OF I-35. THE RAIN THEN EXPANDS
EAST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA
THIS EVENING...EXITING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF I-35 TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED WEAKER
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA...AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS AND SAN ANTONIO SUNDAY EVENING. LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
DRYING AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT EDGE. DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS TAKES PLACES MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY AND SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES NOW TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EWX CWA. STILL ROOM FOR
SIGNIFICANT ERROR THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH SYSTEMS THIS FAR
SOUTH COMING OUT OF MEXICO...THEREFORE NO HIGHER THAN 20-40 POPS
AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND CMC
TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  57  66  37  51 /  90  80  30  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  56  66  37  50 /  90  70  30  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  57  68  39  52 /  80  70  30  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  53  62  33  49 /  90  80  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  52  67  41  55 /  90  30  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  55  63  34  49 /  90  80  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  55  69  39  55 /  90  60  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  56  67  38  51 /  90  70  30  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  57  67  39  51 /  60  70  50  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  56  68  39  53 /  90  70  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  56  69  41  54 /  80  70  30  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 311628 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1028 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. AT LOWER LEVELS...A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45
TO 50 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS INJECTING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA AND HELPING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
REMAINS RELATIVE DRY AS DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE 7 TO 8 DEGREES LOWER
THAN AIR TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGUN TO
MOISTEN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS LIGHT NEW RADAR ECHOES SHOWED
ON LAST RADAR VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT RAINS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING WITH EPISODES OF MODERATE RAINS AND EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
RAIN ALREADY IMPACTING KDRT THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS BY MID DAY. EXPECTING IFR
CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS WHILE RAIN IS FALLING. THIS RAINFALL WILL
PUSH THROUGH AND CLEAR KAUS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOIST SFC
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FOG AND CONTINUED LOW CIGS UNTIL AT LEAST
MID MORNING TOMORROW. INCLUDED AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FOR THE 30
HR TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING. TAF AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS CONDITIONS WAVER. EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LOWERING
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN 3RD OF THE CWA AND PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING FROM SW TO NE...WITH DEW POINTS MODIFYING BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WEST OF I-35. THE RAIN THEN EXPANDS
EAST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA
THIS EVENING...EXITING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF I-35 TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED WEAKER
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA...AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS AND SAN ANTONIO SUNDAY EVENING. LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
DRYING AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT EDGE. DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS TAKES PLACES MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY AND SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES NOW TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EWX CWA. STILL ROOM FOR
SIGNIFICANT ERROR THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH SYSTEMS THIS FAR
SOUTH COMING OUT OF MEXICO...THEREFORE NO HIGHER THAN 20-40 POPS
AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND CMC
TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  57  66  37  51 /  90  80  30  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  56  66  37  50 /  90  70  30  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  57  68  39  52 /  80  70  30  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  53  62  33  49 /  90  80  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  52  67  41  55 /  90  30  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  55  63  34  49 /  90  80  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  55  69  39  55 /  90  60  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  56  67  38  51 /  90  70  30  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  57  67  39  51 /  60  70  50  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  56  68  39  53 /  90  70  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  56  69  41  54 /  80  70  30  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KEWX 311628 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1028 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. AT LOWER LEVELS...A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45
TO 50 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS INJECTING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA AND HELPING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
REMAINS RELATIVE DRY AS DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE 7 TO 8 DEGREES LOWER
THAN AIR TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGUN TO
MOISTEN ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS LIGHT NEW RADAR ECHOES SHOWED
ON LAST RADAR VOLUME SCAN. EXPECT RAINS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING WITH EPISODES OF MODERATE RAINS AND EVEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF AN INCH...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
RAIN ALREADY IMPACTING KDRT THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS BY MID DAY. EXPECTING IFR
CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS WHILE RAIN IS FALLING. THIS RAINFALL WILL
PUSH THROUGH AND CLEAR KAUS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOIST SFC
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FOG AND CONTINUED LOW CIGS UNTIL AT LEAST
MID MORNING TOMORROW. INCLUDED AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FOR THE 30
HR TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING. TAF AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS CONDITIONS WAVER. EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LOWERING
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN 3RD OF THE CWA AND PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING FROM SW TO NE...WITH DEW POINTS MODIFYING BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WEST OF I-35. THE RAIN THEN EXPANDS
EAST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA
THIS EVENING...EXITING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF I-35 TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED WEAKER
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA...AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS AND SAN ANTONIO SUNDAY EVENING. LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
DRYING AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT EDGE. DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS TAKES PLACES MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY AND SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES NOW TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EWX CWA. STILL ROOM FOR
SIGNIFICANT ERROR THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH SYSTEMS THIS FAR
SOUTH COMING OUT OF MEXICO...THEREFORE NO HIGHER THAN 20-40 POPS
AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND CMC
TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  57  66  37  51 /  90  80  30  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  56  66  37  50 /  90  70  30  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  57  68  39  52 /  80  70  30  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  53  62  33  49 /  90  80  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  52  67  41  55 /  90  30  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  55  63  34  49 /  90  80  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  55  69  39  55 /  90  60  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  56  67  38  51 /  90  70  30  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  57  67  39  51 /  60  70  50  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  56  68  39  53 /  90  70  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  56  69  41  54 /  80  70  30  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30







000
FXUS64 KHGX 311618
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1018 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...YESTERDAY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA IS
SENDING IMPULSES OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INTO TEXAS PRODUCING
CLOUD COVER FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. SHORT RANGE MODELS HINTING AT PRECIP
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS TEXAS THAT WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. ONLY EDIT MADE WAS TO DEWPOINT
GRIDS TO MATCH THE OBS. 13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS AND A TRANSITION TO A SW FLOW ALOFT
(AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED IMPULSES). MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP APPROACHING AREAS WEST OF A COLLEGE
STATION-EDNA LINE LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. THOUGH ISOLATED
POPCORN SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER 2 PM FURTHER EAST...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY DURING THE DAY.

BKN BAND OF SHRA SHOULD PUSH EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE TX
DURING THE EVNG HOURS BRINGING JUST NUISANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
PAST FEW TEXAS TECH WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WX
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ITSELF MOVES INTO SE TX EARLY SUNDAY AFTN.
LOWERED POPS SOME FROM MIDNIGHT-NOON FOR MOST AREAS BUT HAVE A
FEELING THEY COULD STILL POTENTIALLY BE OVERDONE DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD. WE DO EXPECT SCT (RE)DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CLL AREA EARLY IN THE AFTN AND EVENTUALLY FILL INTO
A LINE OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA AS IT APPROACHES THE METRO AREA
AROUND 3 PM & OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE EVNG. THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING W/ DRY COOL
WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

LATEST MODELS GUESSES KICKOUT THE CUTOFF BAJA LOW LATE MONDAY AND
TAKE IT ON A MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN EARLIER RUNS. DEVELOPING
SFC COASTAL LOW WILL THEREBY ALSO TAKING A MORE NRN TRACK &
CLOSER TO THE UPPER TX COASTLINE. RESULT WOULD BE AN EXPANSION OF
RAIN FURTHER INLAND TUE/WED RATHER THAN JUST CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE. BUMPED POPS UP A TOUCH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD BUT
THEY WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING/TRACK OF UPPER LOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. MAY NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS NEAR THE COAST AS
DYNAMICS SETTING UP SIMILAR TO LAST THURS. AGAIN - WAY TOO FAR OUT
& THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE - BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

ONCE THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RIDGE OUT WEST WILL
AMPLIFY PUTTING US IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DURING THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEK.  47

MARINE...
MODERATE EAST WINDS TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE ERN
U.S. TODAY. BUT WE SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS OUR
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT/SAT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEEPEN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM (ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT) PROG-
GED TO SWEEP INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT...BUT MAY BE PRECEDED
BY A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING/MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUN. THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAKE FOR UNSETTLED WX/SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS STARTING LATE SAT ON INTO SUN. CAUTION FLAGS
MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THESE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORI-
ES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER
NOT GOING WITH A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME AS MODELS GENERALLY KEEPING
SUSTAINED WINDS UNDER CRITERIA...BUT NOT RULING OUT WIND GUSTS AT/OR
NEAR GALE FORCE FOR MON. WINDS/SEAS TO DECREASE TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT/MODERATE E/SELY
WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONT PROGGED FOR THURS. 41

AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTIN-
UES TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX. SHORT-RANGE MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE
LIGHT PCPN STARTING THIS AFTN AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS FROM THE W
AND SW...BUT WILL LIKELY OPT TO KEEP ANY MENTION OUT (SAVE FOR VCSH)
UNTIL LATER. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  58  65  37  49 /  40  60  60  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  58  69  41  51 /  20  50  70  20   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  57  64  45  50 /  20  40  50  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13



000
FXUS64 KHGX 311618
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1018 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...YESTERDAY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA IS
SENDING IMPULSES OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INTO TEXAS PRODUCING
CLOUD COVER FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. SHORT RANGE MODELS HINTING AT PRECIP
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS TEXAS THAT WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. ONLY EDIT MADE WAS TO DEWPOINT
GRIDS TO MATCH THE OBS. 13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS AND A TRANSITION TO A SW FLOW ALOFT
(AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED IMPULSES). MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP APPROACHING AREAS WEST OF A COLLEGE
STATION-EDNA LINE LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. THOUGH ISOLATED
POPCORN SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER 2 PM FURTHER EAST...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY DURING THE DAY.

BKN BAND OF SHRA SHOULD PUSH EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE TX
DURING THE EVNG HOURS BRINGING JUST NUISANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
PAST FEW TEXAS TECH WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WX
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ITSELF MOVES INTO SE TX EARLY SUNDAY AFTN.
LOWERED POPS SOME FROM MIDNIGHT-NOON FOR MOST AREAS BUT HAVE A
FEELING THEY COULD STILL POTENTIALLY BE OVERDONE DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD. WE DO EXPECT SCT (RE)DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CLL AREA EARLY IN THE AFTN AND EVENTUALLY FILL INTO
A LINE OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA AS IT APPROACHES THE METRO AREA
AROUND 3 PM & OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE EVNG. THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING W/ DRY COOL
WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

LATEST MODELS GUESSES KICKOUT THE CUTOFF BAJA LOW LATE MONDAY AND
TAKE IT ON A MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN EARLIER RUNS. DEVELOPING
SFC COASTAL LOW WILL THEREBY ALSO TAKING A MORE NRN TRACK &
CLOSER TO THE UPPER TX COASTLINE. RESULT WOULD BE AN EXPANSION OF
RAIN FURTHER INLAND TUE/WED RATHER THAN JUST CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE. BUMPED POPS UP A TOUCH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD BUT
THEY WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING/TRACK OF UPPER LOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. MAY NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS NEAR THE COAST AS
DYNAMICS SETTING UP SIMILAR TO LAST THURS. AGAIN - WAY TOO FAR OUT
& THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE - BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

ONCE THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RIDGE OUT WEST WILL
AMPLIFY PUTTING US IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DURING THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEK.  47

MARINE...
MODERATE EAST WINDS TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE ERN
U.S. TODAY. BUT WE SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS OUR
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT/SAT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEEPEN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM (ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT) PROG-
GED TO SWEEP INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT...BUT MAY BE PRECEDED
BY A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING/MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUN. THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAKE FOR UNSETTLED WX/SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS STARTING LATE SAT ON INTO SUN. CAUTION FLAGS
MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THESE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORI-
ES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER
NOT GOING WITH A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME AS MODELS GENERALLY KEEPING
SUSTAINED WINDS UNDER CRITERIA...BUT NOT RULING OUT WIND GUSTS AT/OR
NEAR GALE FORCE FOR MON. WINDS/SEAS TO DECREASE TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT/MODERATE E/SELY
WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONT PROGGED FOR THURS. 41

AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTIN-
UES TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX. SHORT-RANGE MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE
LIGHT PCPN STARTING THIS AFTN AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS FROM THE W
AND SW...BUT WILL LIKELY OPT TO KEEP ANY MENTION OUT (SAVE FOR VCSH)
UNTIL LATER. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  58  65  37  49 /  40  60  60  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  58  69  41  51 /  20  50  70  20   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  57  64  45  50 /  20  40  50  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13



000
FXUS64 KHGX 311618
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1018 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...YESTERDAY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA IS
SENDING IMPULSES OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INTO TEXAS PRODUCING
CLOUD COVER FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. SHORT RANGE MODELS HINTING AT PRECIP
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS TEXAS THAT WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. ONLY EDIT MADE WAS TO DEWPOINT
GRIDS TO MATCH THE OBS. 13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS AND A TRANSITION TO A SW FLOW ALOFT
(AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED IMPULSES). MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP APPROACHING AREAS WEST OF A COLLEGE
STATION-EDNA LINE LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. THOUGH ISOLATED
POPCORN SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER 2 PM FURTHER EAST...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY DURING THE DAY.

BKN BAND OF SHRA SHOULD PUSH EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE TX
DURING THE EVNG HOURS BRINGING JUST NUISANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
PAST FEW TEXAS TECH WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WX
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ITSELF MOVES INTO SE TX EARLY SUNDAY AFTN.
LOWERED POPS SOME FROM MIDNIGHT-NOON FOR MOST AREAS BUT HAVE A
FEELING THEY COULD STILL POTENTIALLY BE OVERDONE DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD. WE DO EXPECT SCT (RE)DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CLL AREA EARLY IN THE AFTN AND EVENTUALLY FILL INTO
A LINE OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA AS IT APPROACHES THE METRO AREA
AROUND 3 PM & OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE EVNG. THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING W/ DRY COOL
WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

LATEST MODELS GUESSES KICKOUT THE CUTOFF BAJA LOW LATE MONDAY AND
TAKE IT ON A MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN EARLIER RUNS. DEVELOPING
SFC COASTAL LOW WILL THEREBY ALSO TAKING A MORE NRN TRACK &
CLOSER TO THE UPPER TX COASTLINE. RESULT WOULD BE AN EXPANSION OF
RAIN FURTHER INLAND TUE/WED RATHER THAN JUST CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE. BUMPED POPS UP A TOUCH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD BUT
THEY WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING/TRACK OF UPPER LOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. MAY NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS NEAR THE COAST AS
DYNAMICS SETTING UP SIMILAR TO LAST THURS. AGAIN - WAY TOO FAR OUT
& THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE - BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

ONCE THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RIDGE OUT WEST WILL
AMPLIFY PUTTING US IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DURING THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEK.  47

MARINE...
MODERATE EAST WINDS TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE ERN
U.S. TODAY. BUT WE SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS OUR
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT/SAT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEEPEN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM (ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT) PROG-
GED TO SWEEP INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT...BUT MAY BE PRECEDED
BY A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING/MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUN. THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAKE FOR UNSETTLED WX/SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS STARTING LATE SAT ON INTO SUN. CAUTION FLAGS
MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THESE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORI-
ES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER
NOT GOING WITH A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME AS MODELS GENERALLY KEEPING
SUSTAINED WINDS UNDER CRITERIA...BUT NOT RULING OUT WIND GUSTS AT/OR
NEAR GALE FORCE FOR MON. WINDS/SEAS TO DECREASE TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT/MODERATE E/SELY
WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONT PROGGED FOR THURS. 41

AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTIN-
UES TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX. SHORT-RANGE MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE
LIGHT PCPN STARTING THIS AFTN AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS FROM THE W
AND SW...BUT WILL LIKELY OPT TO KEEP ANY MENTION OUT (SAVE FOR VCSH)
UNTIL LATER. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  58  65  37  49 /  40  60  60  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  58  69  41  51 /  20  50  70  20   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  57  64  45  50 /  20  40  50  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13



000
FXUS64 KHGX 311618
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1018 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...YESTERDAY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA IS
SENDING IMPULSES OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INTO TEXAS PRODUCING
CLOUD COVER FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. SHORT RANGE MODELS HINTING AT PRECIP
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS TEXAS THAT WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. ONLY EDIT MADE WAS TO DEWPOINT
GRIDS TO MATCH THE OBS. 13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS AND A TRANSITION TO A SW FLOW ALOFT
(AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED IMPULSES). MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP APPROACHING AREAS WEST OF A COLLEGE
STATION-EDNA LINE LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. THOUGH ISOLATED
POPCORN SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER 2 PM FURTHER EAST...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY DURING THE DAY.

BKN BAND OF SHRA SHOULD PUSH EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE TX
DURING THE EVNG HOURS BRINGING JUST NUISANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
PAST FEW TEXAS TECH WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WX
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ITSELF MOVES INTO SE TX EARLY SUNDAY AFTN.
LOWERED POPS SOME FROM MIDNIGHT-NOON FOR MOST AREAS BUT HAVE A
FEELING THEY COULD STILL POTENTIALLY BE OVERDONE DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD. WE DO EXPECT SCT (RE)DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CLL AREA EARLY IN THE AFTN AND EVENTUALLY FILL INTO
A LINE OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA AS IT APPROACHES THE METRO AREA
AROUND 3 PM & OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE EVNG. THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING W/ DRY COOL
WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

LATEST MODELS GUESSES KICKOUT THE CUTOFF BAJA LOW LATE MONDAY AND
TAKE IT ON A MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN EARLIER RUNS. DEVELOPING
SFC COASTAL LOW WILL THEREBY ALSO TAKING A MORE NRN TRACK &
CLOSER TO THE UPPER TX COASTLINE. RESULT WOULD BE AN EXPANSION OF
RAIN FURTHER INLAND TUE/WED RATHER THAN JUST CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE. BUMPED POPS UP A TOUCH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD BUT
THEY WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING/TRACK OF UPPER LOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. MAY NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS NEAR THE COAST AS
DYNAMICS SETTING UP SIMILAR TO LAST THURS. AGAIN - WAY TOO FAR OUT
& THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE - BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

ONCE THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RIDGE OUT WEST WILL
AMPLIFY PUTTING US IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DURING THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEK.  47

MARINE...
MODERATE EAST WINDS TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE ERN
U.S. TODAY. BUT WE SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS OUR
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT/SAT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEEPEN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM (ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT) PROG-
GED TO SWEEP INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT...BUT MAY BE PRECEDED
BY A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING/MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUN. THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAKE FOR UNSETTLED WX/SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS STARTING LATE SAT ON INTO SUN. CAUTION FLAGS
MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THESE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORI-
ES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER
NOT GOING WITH A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME AS MODELS GENERALLY KEEPING
SUSTAINED WINDS UNDER CRITERIA...BUT NOT RULING OUT WIND GUSTS AT/OR
NEAR GALE FORCE FOR MON. WINDS/SEAS TO DECREASE TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT/MODERATE E/SELY
WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONT PROGGED FOR THURS. 41

AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTIN-
UES TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX. SHORT-RANGE MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE
LIGHT PCPN STARTING THIS AFTN AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS FROM THE W
AND SW...BUT WILL LIKELY OPT TO KEEP ANY MENTION OUT (SAVE FOR VCSH)
UNTIL LATER. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  58  65  37  49 /  40  60  60  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  58  69  41  51 /  20  50  70  20   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  57  64  45  50 /  20  40  50  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13



000
FXUS64 KFWD 311221
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING WEST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY REACH THE GROUND ACROSS
ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES BEFORE MIDDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL EVAPORATE AS IT FALLS THROUGH AN EXTREMELY DRY LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE. THE DRY LAYER WILL MOISTEN WITH TIME AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 FT BY MID AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN FINALLY REACHING
THE GROUND. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AS GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEFORE SUNSET WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FT. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 02 AND 03Z AND REMAIN
BETWEEN 700 AND 1000 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS.
SOME TEMPORARY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN WACO.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 9 AND 15 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
AFTER FROPA.


79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
AS I WRITE THIS AN AREA OF VIRGA SITS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. AN OCCASIONAL RAIN DROP MAY MAKE IT
TO THE SURFACE...BUT THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN
750 AND 950 MB. IT WILL TAKE A BIT OF PRECIP TO MOISTEN THIS
LAYER. AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH PRECIP ONSET TIMING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...I HAVE DECREASED QPF SINCE A GOOD PORTION OF OUR
EXPECTED RAIN WILL EVAPORATE AS IT MOISTENS THIS LAYER. MANY
AREAS WILL NOW STRUGGLE TO GET A QUARTER INCH OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A BIT MORE THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THE PRECIP SHOULD ALSO SHUT OFF FASTER SUNDAY AS THE ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ARE
NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX AFTER
NOON.

THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS COASTAL TX TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HAS ITS TRACK SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...AND LOW POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT NORTH AS WELL. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE TRACK SHIFT BACK SOUTH AGAIN
TOMORROW...THAT SEEMS TO BE THE PATTERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE QPF BEHIND THIS
FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO BELOW THE INVERSION AND THIS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL...WITH WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.  84


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  48  57  29  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
WACO, TX              55  51  61  32  47 /  60  80  70  10   5
PARIS, TX             54  44  55  27  42 /  40  90  70  10   5
DENTON, TX            53  45  54  28  44 /  70  90  60  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  46  56  28  43 /  60  90  70  10   5
DALLAS, TX            55  48  58  30  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
TERRELL, TX           56  49  59  30  44 /  50  90  70  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         56  51  61  31  45 /  50  80  70  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            56  52  63  33  48 /  60  70  70  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  46  53  28  46 /  90  80  40  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/84





000
FXUS64 KFWD 311221
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING WEST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY REACH THE GROUND ACROSS
ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES BEFORE MIDDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL EVAPORATE AS IT FALLS THROUGH AN EXTREMELY DRY LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE. THE DRY LAYER WILL MOISTEN WITH TIME AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO
AROUND 3000 FT BY MID AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN FINALLY REACHING
THE GROUND. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AS GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEFORE SUNSET WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FT. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 02 AND 03Z AND REMAIN
BETWEEN 700 AND 1000 FT OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS.
SOME TEMPORARY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN WACO.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 9 AND 15 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
AFTER FROPA.


79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
AS I WRITE THIS AN AREA OF VIRGA SITS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. AN OCCASIONAL RAIN DROP MAY MAKE IT
TO THE SURFACE...BUT THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN
750 AND 950 MB. IT WILL TAKE A BIT OF PRECIP TO MOISTEN THIS
LAYER. AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH PRECIP ONSET TIMING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...I HAVE DECREASED QPF SINCE A GOOD PORTION OF OUR
EXPECTED RAIN WILL EVAPORATE AS IT MOISTENS THIS LAYER. MANY
AREAS WILL NOW STRUGGLE TO GET A QUARTER INCH OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A BIT MORE THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THE PRECIP SHOULD ALSO SHUT OFF FASTER SUNDAY AS THE ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ARE
NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX AFTER
NOON.

THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS COASTAL TX TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HAS ITS TRACK SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...AND LOW POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT NORTH AS WELL. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE TRACK SHIFT BACK SOUTH AGAIN
TOMORROW...THAT SEEMS TO BE THE PATTERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE QPF BEHIND THIS
FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO BELOW THE INVERSION AND THIS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL...WITH WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.  84


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  48  57  29  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
WACO, TX              55  51  61  32  47 /  60  80  70  10   5
PARIS, TX             54  44  55  27  42 /  40  90  70  10   5
DENTON, TX            53  45  54  28  44 /  70  90  60  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  46  56  28  43 /  60  90  70  10   5
DALLAS, TX            55  48  58  30  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
TERRELL, TX           56  49  59  30  44 /  50  90  70  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         56  51  61  31  45 /  50  80  70  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            56  52  63  33  48 /  60  70  70  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  46  53  28  46 /  90  80  40  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/84






000
FXUS64 KBRO 311204 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
604 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO INCREASE TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH SOME LOWER
CLOUDS APPROACHING MVFR LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
INVERSION AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO INCREASE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OF MEXICO WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
BECOME STRONG WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW SPINNING OVER SOCAL AND BAJA CA. LOTS OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HELPING TO SPREAD HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO NE MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA CHANCES TO REMAIN LOW THIS
WEEKEND WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND NEED LIFT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
ABSENT ACROSS THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS WITH
DIFFLUENCE INCREASING AND AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.

TODAY...AS MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES OVER WEST TEXAS AND
PRESSURE BEGIN TO LOWER LEESIDE TROUGHING TO STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
MEXICO PLATEAU. SOUTHEAST 925-850 FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
YESTERDAY TODAY WILL SEE A MORE TYPICAL SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER REGIME.
WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH INCREASING THE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES NOT ESPECIALLY WARM BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEY AND
RANCHLANDS. MODEL POP GUIDANCE IS BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE EAST BUT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW GRADE POPS
IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SEVERAL
SPOKES OF ENERGY SEEN OVER NW MEXICO ROTATING NE AROUND THE TROUGH.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS VERY
HIGH ON THE 12 HOUR POPS BUT CONSERVATIVE ON THE 6 HOUR. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE  PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST AND
LOWER GRADE RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST. VERY MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...INTERESTING DAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXITING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN
THE MORNING. LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND 700-850MB TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A STRONG CAP
DEVELOPING. DOWNSLOPING AND THE WARM TO MIX OUT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
SQUASHING ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT THIS BUT
DECIDED TO GO HIGHER. MOST AREA WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S WITH EVEN
THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACH MAKING IT A REALLY SUPER SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
SUPPORTED BY A NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH AND TO A LESSER EXTENT A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON MONDAY
WITH SPEEDS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. WILL BE NOTICABLY COLDER THAN
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 30 DEGREES COLDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AT LEAST MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE
AREAS WITH CHANCES WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS
INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL
TODAY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST. SCEC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO SLOWLY RELAX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. A LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH POSSIBLE GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN HIGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AS A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH TUES NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW/TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 311204 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
604 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO INCREASE TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH SOME LOWER
CLOUDS APPROACHING MVFR LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
INVERSION AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO INCREASE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OF MEXICO WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
BECOME STRONG WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW SPINNING OVER SOCAL AND BAJA CA. LOTS OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HELPING TO SPREAD HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO NE MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA CHANCES TO REMAIN LOW THIS
WEEKEND WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND NEED LIFT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
ABSENT ACROSS THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS WITH
DIFFLUENCE INCREASING AND AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.

TODAY...AS MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES OVER WEST TEXAS AND
PRESSURE BEGIN TO LOWER LEESIDE TROUGHING TO STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
MEXICO PLATEAU. SOUTHEAST 925-850 FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
YESTERDAY TODAY WILL SEE A MORE TYPICAL SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER REGIME.
WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH INCREASING THE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES NOT ESPECIALLY WARM BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEY AND
RANCHLANDS. MODEL POP GUIDANCE IS BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE EAST BUT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW GRADE POPS
IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SEVERAL
SPOKES OF ENERGY SEEN OVER NW MEXICO ROTATING NE AROUND THE TROUGH.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS VERY
HIGH ON THE 12 HOUR POPS BUT CONSERVATIVE ON THE 6 HOUR. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE  PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST AND
LOWER GRADE RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST. VERY MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...INTERESTING DAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXITING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN
THE MORNING. LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND 700-850MB TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A STRONG CAP
DEVELOPING. DOWNSLOPING AND THE WARM TO MIX OUT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
SQUASHING ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT THIS BUT
DECIDED TO GO HIGHER. MOST AREA WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S WITH EVEN
THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACH MAKING IT A REALLY SUPER SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
SUPPORTED BY A NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH AND TO A LESSER EXTENT A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON MONDAY
WITH SPEEDS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. WILL BE NOTICABLY COLDER THAN
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 30 DEGREES COLDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AT LEAST MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE
AREAS WITH CHANCES WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS
INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL
TODAY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST. SCEC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO SLOWLY RELAX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. A LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH POSSIBLE GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN HIGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AS A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH TUES NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW/TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 311204 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
604 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO INCREASE TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH SOME LOWER
CLOUDS APPROACHING MVFR LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
INVERSION AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO INCREASE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OF MEXICO WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
BECOME STRONG WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW SPINNING OVER SOCAL AND BAJA CA. LOTS OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HELPING TO SPREAD HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO NE MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA CHANCES TO REMAIN LOW THIS
WEEKEND WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND NEED LIFT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
ABSENT ACROSS THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS WITH
DIFFLUENCE INCREASING AND AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.

TODAY...AS MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES OVER WEST TEXAS AND
PRESSURE BEGIN TO LOWER LEESIDE TROUGHING TO STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
MEXICO PLATEAU. SOUTHEAST 925-850 FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
YESTERDAY TODAY WILL SEE A MORE TYPICAL SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER REGIME.
WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH INCREASING THE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES NOT ESPECIALLY WARM BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEY AND
RANCHLANDS. MODEL POP GUIDANCE IS BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE EAST BUT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW GRADE POPS
IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SEVERAL
SPOKES OF ENERGY SEEN OVER NW MEXICO ROTATING NE AROUND THE TROUGH.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS VERY
HIGH ON THE 12 HOUR POPS BUT CONSERVATIVE ON THE 6 HOUR. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE  PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST AND
LOWER GRADE RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST. VERY MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...INTERESTING DAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXITING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN
THE MORNING. LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND 700-850MB TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A STRONG CAP
DEVELOPING. DOWNSLOPING AND THE WARM TO MIX OUT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
SQUASHING ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT THIS BUT
DECIDED TO GO HIGHER. MOST AREA WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S WITH EVEN
THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACH MAKING IT A REALLY SUPER SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
SUPPORTED BY A NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH AND TO A LESSER EXTENT A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON MONDAY
WITH SPEEDS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. WILL BE NOTICABLY COLDER THAN
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 30 DEGREES COLDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AT LEAST MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE
AREAS WITH CHANCES WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS
INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL
TODAY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST. SCEC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO SLOWLY RELAX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. A LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH POSSIBLE GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN HIGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AS A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH TUES NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW/TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 311204 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
604 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO INCREASE TODAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH SOME LOWER
CLOUDS APPROACHING MVFR LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
INVERSION AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO INCREASE
SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS. LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OF MEXICO WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
BECOME STRONG WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW SPINNING OVER SOCAL AND BAJA CA. LOTS OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HELPING TO SPREAD HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO NE MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA CHANCES TO REMAIN LOW THIS
WEEKEND WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND NEED LIFT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
ABSENT ACROSS THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS WITH
DIFFLUENCE INCREASING AND AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.

TODAY...AS MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES OVER WEST TEXAS AND
PRESSURE BEGIN TO LOWER LEESIDE TROUGHING TO STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
MEXICO PLATEAU. SOUTHEAST 925-850 FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
YESTERDAY TODAY WILL SEE A MORE TYPICAL SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER REGIME.
WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH INCREASING THE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES NOT ESPECIALLY WARM BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEY AND
RANCHLANDS. MODEL POP GUIDANCE IS BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE EAST BUT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW GRADE POPS
IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SEVERAL
SPOKES OF ENERGY SEEN OVER NW MEXICO ROTATING NE AROUND THE TROUGH.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS VERY
HIGH ON THE 12 HOUR POPS BUT CONSERVATIVE ON THE 6 HOUR. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE  PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST AND
LOWER GRADE RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST. VERY MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...INTERESTING DAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXITING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN
THE MORNING. LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND 700-850MB TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A STRONG CAP
DEVELOPING. DOWNSLOPING AND THE WARM TO MIX OUT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
SQUASHING ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT THIS BUT
DECIDED TO GO HIGHER. MOST AREA WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S WITH EVEN
THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACH MAKING IT A REALLY SUPER SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
SUPPORTED BY A NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH AND TO A LESSER EXTENT A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON MONDAY
WITH SPEEDS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. WILL BE NOTICABLY COLDER THAN
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 30 DEGREES COLDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AT LEAST MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE
AREAS WITH CHANCES WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS
INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL
TODAY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST. SCEC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO SLOWLY RELAX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. A LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH POSSIBLE GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN HIGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AS A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH TUES NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW/TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/55




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 311204 AAA
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
503 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER TROUGH BRINGING THIS WEATHER WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE THE
BORDERLAND SUNDAY...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO END AND SKIES TO BEGIN
CLEARING SOMEWHAT. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP MUCH OF NEXT WEEK MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...
CHOSE AT LAST MINUTE TO DOWNGRADE WINTER WARNINGS FOR THE LOWER TWO
SACRAMENTO ZONES TO ADVISORIES. NEW STATEMENT TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY
WILL REFLECT THIS.

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM EVENT HAS BEEN LESS THAN OVERWHELMING SO FAR...MOSTLY
DUE TO TRICKY SNOW LEVEL FORECAST. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
WITH DEVELOPING SECONDARY UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA.
MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE BAND IS ABOUT THROUGH THE CWA WITH A MORE
CONVECTIVE...UNSTABLE LOOKING BAND ROTATING AROUND THE DEVELOPING
LOW AND NOW OVER THE SONORAN DESERT OF MEXICO AND ARIZONA. THE AREA
COULD SEE A BREAK FROM MOST PRECIP UNTIL THIS MORE CONVECTIVE BAND
ROTATES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS STILL SHOWING HEAVY
SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT AGAIN...FORECASTING THE SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE TRICKY. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM12 AND HRRR
ARE STILL SHOWING A GOOD SNOW MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SACS
BUT AT ELEVATIONS MOSTLY ABOVE 8500 FT. MESONET OBS SHOW MUCH OF THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SACS JUST BELOW FREEZING (AROUND 7000 FT) AND
MOST OF THE HIGH SACS ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THE WEST SLOPES ARE
STILL IN THE UPPER 30S. SNOW LEVELS RIGHT NOW ARE PROBABLY AROUND
7000 FT AND WILL PROBABLY STAY THERE BUT FLUCTUATE. WILL LEAVE
WARNING WORDING AT 8000 FT AND ABOVE. FOR THE GILA...LIMITED OBS
OVER THE BLACK RANGE SHOW TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE AREAS
FURTHER WEST BELOW 7000 FT ARE IN THE UPPER 30S. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 7500-8000 FT IN THIS AREA. WILL LEAVE WARNING
ALONE FOR THIS ZONE TOO BUT LOOKING DOUBTFUL HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT
MUCH OF ANY INHABITABLE AREAS. FOR THE LOWLANDS RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL OF MAYBE ANOTHER QUARTER TO
HALF INCH POSSIBLE.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SIMILAR WITH ENDING THE EVENT. SECONDARY LOW
BECOMES THE DOMINANT LOW AND DROPS DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAKLY LINKED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
LEAVE LOW POPS RUNNING IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD END IN THE
AFTERNOON.

REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A NICE DIVERSION FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS THE
UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAKENED PACIFIC FRONT ALOFT
WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A RATHER
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES IN THURSDAY FOR PERHAPS SOME LOWER
CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
VERY FEW CLOUDS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH BRIEF MINOR COOLING THURSDAY WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 31/12Z-01/12Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPLY THE REGION WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE RESULTING
IN LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA BKN-OVC010-020. PERIODS OF
-RA WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 3-5SM. BRIEF EXCURSIONS
INTO IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH RA RESULTING IN 1-2SM
OVC005-008.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG UPPER LOWS OVER NEVADA AND WEST OF THE BAJA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE FIRE ZONES TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LOWLANDS AND SNOW FALL...OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY...OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOWS DROP
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND
SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY STILL BELOW
NORMAL BUT THEN WARMUP BEGINS AND BY TUESDAY INTO THE END OF THE NEW
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARMUP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RH`S WILL
RANGE FROM 65-75% TODAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN DROP BACK INTO THE 40S%
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 54  38  53  34  58 /  60  30  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           57  37  51  32  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              53  38  52  34  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              51  34  52  31  53 /  70  30  20   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              38  29  38  23  43 /  90  40  20   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  35  52  34  56 /  60  30  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             47  36  50  32  52 /  80  40  20   0   0
DEMING                  53  36  53  32  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
LORDSBURG               52  35  53  31  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      54  38  54  35  58 /  70  30  20   0   0
DELL CITY               54  36  49  29  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            55  37  54  35  59 /  70  30  20   0   0
LOMA LINDA              48  39  49  32  51 /  70  30  20   0   0
FABENS                  56  39  52  33  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  38  53  34  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  37  53  35  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           53  35  53  30  55 /  70  30  20   0   0
HATCH                   52  37  55  33  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                52  38  53  36  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  37  52  33  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
MAYHILL                 40  34  41  27  48 /  80  40  20   0   0
MESCALERO               42  33  45  25  45 /  90  40  20   0   0
TIMBERON                41  33  45  28  47 /  90  30  20   0   0
WINSTON                 43  34  48  30  51 /  80  30  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  36  49  34  52 /  80  30  20   0   0
SPACEPORT               51  36  55  32  56 /  70  30  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            42  34  49  30  51 /  90  40  20   0   0
HURLEY                  48  36  50  32  52 /  80  40  20   0   0
CLIFF                   50  33  54  30  56 /  80  40  20   0   0
MULE CREEK              49  30  52  27  53 /  80  40  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 46  38  50  34  52 /  80  30  20   0   0
ANIMAS                  54  36  55  31  59 /  80  40  20   0   0
HACHITA                 53  34  55  32  58 /  70  30  20   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          53  33  55  31  59 /  80  40  20   0   0
CLOVERDALE              49  38  53  33  57 /  90  40  20   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ402-415.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR 414-416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER












000
FXUS64 KCRP 311156
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
556 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO RISE TO MVFR LVLS THROUGH
THE MID MORNING. LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOWERING LATE OVERNIGHT BACK DOWN TO IFR
CRITERIA AFTER 06Z. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE AT AND AROUND
THE LRD TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY...AND INCREASING OVER THE REST OF
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z RAIN CHANCES DECREASE...AND
DO NOT HAVE MENTION OF SHRA AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY (THROUGH HIGHER CHANCES REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST) WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
DISTURBANCES LIFTING AROUND AND ACROSS THE REGION. AS TROUGH
TRACKS EASTWARD ANTICIPATED DRYING TO THEN OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LESS HIGH IN
MUCH DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK SOME LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...KEEPING MAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A GOOD BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS MORE DRYING OCCURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
SLOWING UPPER TROUGH EVEN MORE THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH OFTEN HAPPENS
WITH A CLOSED-OFF SYSTEM LIKE THIS FOR TIME OF YEAR. CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST (ALL WITHIN 12-18 HOURS OF EACH
OTHER). WILL DELAY PASSAGE OF TROUGH ABOUT ANOTHER 12 HOURS...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SYSTEM IS MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION
(IF NOT A BIT SLOWER) BY THE 00Z SUNDAY RUN. ALSO...MODELS ARE GOING
FARTHER SOUTH (IN PART EXPLAINING THE SLOWER SYSTEM) AS PREVIOUS
RUNS. THUS...BEST SHOT OF RAIN NOW APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
NOT TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS AND GULFMEX. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY (UNLESS UPPER SYSTEM IS SLOWER AND THUS DRYING
WILL BE SLOWER). SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE ONCE SYSTEM PASSES EAST (IF IT
DOES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMING DOWN
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. NICE BUT COOL ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DAMP ON
TUESDAY BUT WARMER ON WEDNESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...UNLESS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN. TURNING
COOLER ON THURSDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ISC
COLLABORATION.

BEFORE TUESDAY...QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
FRONT...MAINLY TOWARD THE EASTERN AREAS/GULFMEX AND NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS IN THE GULF WATERS IN EXCESS OF GALE
FORCE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME (AFTER
DISCUSSION WITH KBRO AND KHGX). MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTH ON MONDAY
TO PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO RAIN
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS
IMPACTS FROM UPPER SYSTEM STILL WEST AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
DELAYED. STAYING CLOSER TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  61  75  46  56  /  20  50  20  40  10
VICTORIA          69  59  72  40  54  /  30  50  40  30  10
LAREDO            74  59  76  48  54  /  50  50  10  30  10
ALICE             73  60  77  45  56  /  20  60  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          69  62  70  43  54  /  20  40  30  40  10
COTULLA           68  57  72  44  56  /  50  50  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  61  78  46  56  /  20  50  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  62  70  49  55  /  20  40  20  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KLUB 311138
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IS AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING THUS CREATING VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS...PARTICULARY
AT KLBB AND KPVW. DECKS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR AT KPVW AND
KLBB...WITH VFR DECKS OCCURRING AT KCDS. WILL LIKELY SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR DECKS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
HINTS OF THAT ALSO BEING A POSSIBLITY AT KPVW AND KLBB AS METARS
REPORTED SCT IFR DECKS. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. BKN VFR TO MVFR DECKS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT. THERE ARE HINTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES ONCE THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE SITES. EXPECT -RA
TO AFFECT KPVW AND KLBB THROUGH EARLY/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST...WITH LINGERING -RA AT KCDS INTO MOST OF TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29



000
FXUS64 KLUB 311138
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IS AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING THUS CREATING VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS...PARTICULARY
AT KLBB AND KPVW. DECKS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR AT KPVW AND
KLBB...WITH VFR DECKS OCCURRING AT KCDS. WILL LIKELY SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR DECKS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
HINTS OF THAT ALSO BEING A POSSIBLITY AT KPVW AND KLBB AS METARS
REPORTED SCT IFR DECKS. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. BKN VFR TO MVFR DECKS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT. THERE ARE HINTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES ONCE THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE SITES. EXPECT -RA
TO AFFECT KPVW AND KLBB THROUGH EARLY/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST...WITH LINGERING -RA AT KCDS INTO MOST OF TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 311137
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IS AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING THUS CREATING VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS...PARTICULARY
AT KLBB AND KPVW. DECKS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR AT KPVW AND
KLBB...WITH VFR DECKS OCCURRING AT KCDS. WILL LIKELY SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR DECKS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
HINTS OF THAT ALSO BEING A POSSIBLITY AT KPVW AND KLBB AS METARS
REPORTED SCT MVFR DECKS. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. BKN VFR TO MVFR DECKS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT. THERE ARE HINTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES ONCE THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE SITES. EXPECT -RA
TO AFFECT KPVW AND KLBB THROUGH EARLY/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST...WITH LINGERING -RA AT KCDS INTO MOST OF TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 311137
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IS AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING THUS CREATING VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS...PARTICULARY
AT KLBB AND KPVW. DECKS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR AT KPVW AND
KLBB...WITH VFR DECKS OCCURRING AT KCDS. WILL LIKELY SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR DECKS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
HINTS OF THAT ALSO BEING A POSSIBLITY AT KPVW AND KLBB AS METARS
REPORTED SCT MVFR DECKS. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. BKN VFR TO MVFR DECKS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT. THERE ARE HINTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES ONCE THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE SITES. EXPECT -RA
TO AFFECT KPVW AND KLBB THROUGH EARLY/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST...WITH LINGERING -RA AT KCDS INTO MOST OF TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 311137
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IS AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING THUS CREATING VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS...PARTICULARY
AT KLBB AND KPVW. DECKS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR AT KPVW AND
KLBB...WITH VFR DECKS OCCURRING AT KCDS. WILL LIKELY SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR DECKS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
HINTS OF THAT ALSO BEING A POSSIBLITY AT KPVW AND KLBB AS METARS
REPORTED SCT MVFR DECKS. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. BKN VFR TO MVFR DECKS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT. THERE ARE HINTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES ONCE THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE SITES. EXPECT -RA
TO AFFECT KPVW AND KLBB THROUGH EARLY/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST...WITH LINGERING -RA AT KCDS INTO MOST OF TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 311137
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IS AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING THUS CREATING VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS...PARTICULARY
AT KLBB AND KPVW. DECKS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR AT KPVW AND
KLBB...WITH VFR DECKS OCCURRING AT KCDS. WILL LIKELY SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR DECKS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
HINTS OF THAT ALSO BEING A POSSIBLITY AT KPVW AND KLBB AS METARS
REPORTED SCT MVFR DECKS. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. BKN VFR TO MVFR DECKS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT. THERE ARE HINTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES ONCE THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE SITES. EXPECT -RA
TO AFFECT KPVW AND KLBB THROUGH EARLY/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST...WITH LINGERING -RA AT KCDS INTO MOST OF TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KAMA 311134
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
534 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...

LIFR CEILINGS AT KAMA SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING TO IFR. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS EVENING BUT VFR CONDITIONS
APPEAR UNLIKELY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AT KDHT AND KGUY A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AROUND THE TIME THAT A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO
NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS
FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WAS TOO MUCH OF A WARM NOSE
ACCORDING TO LAST NIGHT/S AMA SOUNDING TO GET MUCH FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THIS WARM NOSE WILL ONLY GET DEEPER AND WARMER
TODAY...SO HAVE SWITCHED ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
LIQUID. SOME SNOW MAY TRY TO MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION AS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY
THEN.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH
SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK UP ABOVE
NORMAL BY TUESDAY BEFORE GETTING KNOCKED DOWN AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEK FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE A LITTLE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRIES TO NUDGE IT/S WAY EAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 311134
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
534 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...

LIFR CEILINGS AT KAMA SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING TO IFR. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS EVENING BUT VFR CONDITIONS
APPEAR UNLIKELY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AT KDHT AND KGUY A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AROUND THE TIME THAT A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO
NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS
FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WAS TOO MUCH OF A WARM NOSE
ACCORDING TO LAST NIGHT/S AMA SOUNDING TO GET MUCH FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THIS WARM NOSE WILL ONLY GET DEEPER AND WARMER
TODAY...SO HAVE SWITCHED ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
LIQUID. SOME SNOW MAY TRY TO MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION AS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY
THEN.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH
SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK UP ABOVE
NORMAL BY TUESDAY BEFORE GETTING KNOCKED DOWN AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEK FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE A LITTLE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRIES TO NUDGE IT/S WAY EAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15






000
FXUS64 KLUB 311123
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
523 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IS AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING THUS CREATING VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY
OBSTRUCTIONS...PARTICULARY AT KLBB AND KPVW. DECKS HAVE DROPPED
TO MVFR AT KPVW AND KLBB...WITH VFR DECKS OCCURRING AT KCDS. WILL
LIKELY SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR DECKS LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH HINTS OF THAT ALSO BEING A POSSIBLE AT KPVW AND
KLBB AS METARS REPORTED SCT MVFR DECKS. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. BKN VFR TO MVFR DECKS
WILL BE COMMON TONIGHT. THERE ARE HINTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AT ALL THREE TAF SITES ONCE THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE
SITES. EXPECT -RA TO AFFECT KPVW AND KLBB THROUGH EARLY/LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING EAST...WITH LINGERING -RA AT KCDS INTO
MOST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KEWX 311120
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
520 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
RAIN ALREADY IMPACTING KDRT THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS BY MID DAY. EXPECTING IFR
CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS WHILE RAIN IS FALLING. THIS RAINFALL WILL
PUSH THROUGH AND CLEAR KAUS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOIST SFC
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FOG AND CONTINUED LOW CIGS UNTIL AT LEAST
MID MORNING TOMORROW. INCLUDED AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FOR THE 30
HR TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING. TAF AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS CONDITIONS WAVER. EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

TB3


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LOWERING
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN 3RD OF THE CWA AND PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING FROM SW TO NE...WITH DEW POINTS MODIFYING BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WEST OF I-35. THE RAIN THEN EXPANDS
EAST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA
THIS EVENING...EXITING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF I-35 TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED WEAKER
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA...AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS AND SAN ANTONIO SUNDAY EVENING. LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
DRYING AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT EDGE. DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS TAKES PLACES MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY AND SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES NOW TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EWX CWA. STILL ROOM FOR
SIGNIFICANT ERROR THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH SYSTEMS THIS FAR
SOUTH COMING OUT OF MEXICO...THEREFORE NO HIGHER THAN 20-40 POPS
AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND CMC
TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  57  66  37  51 /  90  80  30  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  56  66  37  50 /  90  70  30  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  57  68  39  52 /  80  70  30  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  53  62  33  49 /  90  80  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  52  67  41  55 /  90  30  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  55  63  34  49 /  90  80  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  55  69  39  55 /  90  60  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  56  67  38  51 /  90  70  30  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  57  67  39  51 /  60  70  50  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  56  68  39  53 /  90  70  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  56  69  41  54 /  80  70  30  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KEWX 311120
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
520 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PACKAGE...
RAIN ALREADY IMPACTING KDRT THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE I35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS BY MID DAY. EXPECTING IFR
CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS WHILE RAIN IS FALLING. THIS RAINFALL WILL
PUSH THROUGH AND CLEAR KAUS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOIST SFC
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FOG AND CONTINUED LOW CIGS UNTIL AT LEAST
MID MORNING TOMORROW. INCLUDED AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FOR THE 30
HR TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING. TAF AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS CONDITIONS WAVER. EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

TB3


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LOWERING
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN 3RD OF THE CWA AND PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING FROM SW TO NE...WITH DEW POINTS MODIFYING BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WEST OF I-35. THE RAIN THEN EXPANDS
EAST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA
THIS EVENING...EXITING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF I-35 TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED WEAKER
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA...AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS AND SAN ANTONIO SUNDAY EVENING. LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
DRYING AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT EDGE. DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS TAKES PLACES MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY AND SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES NOW TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EWX CWA. STILL ROOM FOR
SIGNIFICANT ERROR THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH SYSTEMS THIS FAR
SOUTH COMING OUT OF MEXICO...THEREFORE NO HIGHER THAN 20-40 POPS
AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND CMC
TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  57  66  37  51 /  90  80  30  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  56  66  37  50 /  90  70  30  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  57  68  39  52 /  80  70  30  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  53  62  33  49 /  90  80  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  52  67  41  55 /  90  30  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  55  63  34  49 /  90  80  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  55  69  39  55 /  90  60  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  56  67  38  51 /  90  70  30  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  57  67  39  51 /  60  70  50  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  56  68  39  53 /  90  70  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  56  69  41  54 /  80  70  30  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76






000
FXUS64 KMAF 311114
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Radar shows widespread light to moderate rain continues and will
keep CIGs at IFR/LIFR levels through 15Z before conditions improve
to VFR around 00Z. Temperatures will remain above freezing so no
wintry precipitation is expected.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread light to moderate rain is covering much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico early this morning. This precipitation is
occurring in the moist conveyor belt ahead of a large upper level
low pressure system centered across western Arizona. Will continue
likely to categorical pops this morning for rain as this moisture
continues to push eastward across the forecast area. By this
afternoon the moisture belt will be exiting eastward into central
Texas and precipitation chances will decrease to chance category
except in the central and eastern Permian Basin where likely
to categorical pops will continue near the departing moisture.
There could even be some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
near the Rio Grande River where instability will increase ahead
of the upper low.

By tonight through Sunday night the upper level low pressure
system is progged to split. The southern portion will become the
remains of the upper low and move south into Mexico while the
northern portion transitions into a trough. The net effect will be
a weakening of the entire system. Precipitation chances will be on
the decrease with the best chance across mainly areas south of the
Pecos River in west Texas east of the upper level trough axis.
Progged lapse rates and instability suggest isolated thunderstorms
possible.

By Monday through next Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
is forecast to track from southwest Mexico northeast to south central
Texas by Wednesday. As the system approaches the Big Bend late
Tuesday, showers will be possible in the Big Bend and lower Trans
Pecos region. High temperatures are expected to remain below
normal through Monday but warm to above normal levels by next
Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms.

By next Thursday and Friday below normal temperatures are
expected again behind a dry cold front as an upper level
trough moves across the western half of the nation.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 311114
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Radar shows widespread light to moderate rain continues and will
keep CIGs at IFR/LIFR levels through 15Z before conditions improve
to VFR around 00Z. Temperatures will remain above freezing so no
wintry precipitation is expected.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread light to moderate rain is covering much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico early this morning. This precipitation is
occurring in the moist conveyor belt ahead of a large upper level
low pressure system centered across western Arizona. Will continue
likely to categorical pops this morning for rain as this moisture
continues to push eastward across the forecast area. By this
afternoon the moisture belt will be exiting eastward into central
Texas and precipitation chances will decrease to chance category
except in the central and eastern Permian Basin where likely
to categorical pops will continue near the departing moisture.
There could even be some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
near the Rio Grande River where instability will increase ahead
of the upper low.

By tonight through Sunday night the upper level low pressure
system is progged to split. The southern portion will become the
remains of the upper low and move south into Mexico while the
northern portion transitions into a trough. The net effect will be
a weakening of the entire system. Precipitation chances will be on
the decrease with the best chance across mainly areas south of the
Pecos River in west Texas east of the upper level trough axis.
Progged lapse rates and instability suggest isolated thunderstorms
possible.

By Monday through next Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
is forecast to track from southwest Mexico northeast to south central
Texas by Wednesday. As the system approaches the Big Bend late
Tuesday, showers will be possible in the Big Bend and lower Trans
Pecos region. High temperatures are expected to remain below
normal through Monday but warm to above normal levels by next
Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms.

By next Thursday and Friday below normal temperatures are
expected again behind a dry cold front as an upper level
trough moves across the western half of the nation.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 311103
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
402 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER TROUGH BRINGING THIS WEATHER WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE THE
BORDERLAND SUNDAY...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO END AND SKIES TO BEGIN
CLEARING SOMEWHAT. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP MUCH OF NEXT WEEK MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM EVENT HAS BEEN LESS THAN OVERWHELMING SO FAR...MOSTLY
DUE TO TRICKY SNOW LEVEL FORECAST. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
WITH DEVELOPING SECONDARY UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA.
MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE BAND IS ABOUT THROUGH THE CWA WITH A MORE
CONVECTIVE...UNSTABLE LOOKING BAND ROTATING AROUND THE DEVELOPING
LOW AND NOW OVER THE SONORAN DESERT OF MEXICO AND ARIZONA. THE AREA
COULD SEE A BREAK FROM MOST PRECIP UNTIL THIS MORE CONVECTIVE BAND
ROTATES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS STILL SHOWING HEAVY
SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT AGAIN...FORECASTING THE SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE TRICKY. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM12 AND HRRR
ARE STILL SHOWING A GOOD SNOW MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SACS
BUT AT ELEVATIONS MOSTLY ABOVE 8500 FT. MESONET OBS SHOW MUCH OF THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SACS JUST BELOW FREEZING (AROUND 7000 FT) AND
MOST OF THE HIGH SACS ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THE WEST SLOPES ARE
STILL IN THE UPPER 30S. SNOW LEVELS RIGHT NOW ARE PROBABLY AROUND
7000 FT AND WILL PROBABLY STAY THERE BUT FLUCTUATE. WILL LEAVE
WARNING WORDING AT 8000 FT AND ABOVE. FOR THE GILA...LIMITED OBS
OVER THE BLACK RANGE SHOW TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE AREAS
FURTHER WEST BELOW 7000 FT ARE IN THE UPPER 30S. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 7500-8000 FT IN THIS AREA. WILL LEAVE WARNING
ALONE FOR THIS ZONE TOO BUT LOOKING DOUBTFUL HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT
MUCH OF ANY INHABITABLE AREAS. FOR THE LOWLANDS RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL OF MAYBE ANOTHER QUARTER TO
HALF INCH POSSIBLE.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SIMILAR WITH ENDING THE EVENT. SECONDARY LOW
BECOMES THE DOMINANT LOW AND DROPS DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAKLY LINKED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
LEAVE LOW POPS RUNNING IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD END IN THE
AFTERNOON.

REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A NICE DIVERSION FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS THE
UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAKENED PACIFIC FRONT ALOFT
WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A RATHER
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES IN THURSDAY FOR PERHAPS SOME LOWER
CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
VERY FEW CLOUDS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH BRIEF MINOR COOLING THURSDAY WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 31/12Z-01/12Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPLY THE REGION WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE RESULTING
IN LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA BKN-OVC010-020. PERIODS OF
-RA WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 3-5SM. BRIEF EXCURSIONS
INTO IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH RA RESULTING IN 1-2SM
OVC005-008.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG UPPER LOWS OVER NEVADA AND WEST OF THE BAJA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE FIRE ZONES TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LOWLANDS AND SNOW FALL...OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY...OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOWS DROP
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND
SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY STILL BELOW
NORMAL BUT THEN WARMUP BEGINS AND BY TUESDAY INTO THE END OF THE NEW
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARMUP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RH`S WILL
RANGE FROM 65-75% TODAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN DROP BACK INTO THE 40S%
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 54  38  53  34  58 /  60  30  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           57  37  51  32  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              53  38  52  34  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              51  34  52  31  53 /  70  30  20   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              38  29  38  23  43 /  90  40  20   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  35  52  34  56 /  60  30  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             47  36  50  32  52 /  80  40  20   0   0
DEMING                  53  36  53  32  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
LORDSBURG               52  35  53  31  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      54  38  54  35  58 /  70  30  20   0   0
DELL CITY               54  36  49  29  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            55  37  54  35  59 /  70  30  20   0   0
LOMA LINDA              48  39  49  32  51 /  70  30  20   0   0
FABENS                  56  39  52  33  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  38  53  34  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  37  53  35  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           53  35  53  30  55 /  70  30  20   0   0
HATCH                   52  37  55  33  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                52  38  53  36  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  37  52  33  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
MAYHILL                 40  34  41  27  48 /  80  40  20   0   0
MESCALERO               42  33  45  25  45 /  90  40  20   0   0
TIMBERON                41  33  45  28  47 /  90  30  20   0   0
WINSTON                 43  34  48  30  51 /  80  30  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  36  49  34  52 /  80  30  20   0   0
SPACEPORT               51  36  55  32  56 /  70  30  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            42  34  49  30  51 /  90  40  20   0   0
HURLEY                  48  36  50  32  52 /  80  40  20   0   0
CLIFF                   50  33  54  30  56 /  80  40  20   0   0
MULE CREEK              49  30  52  27  53 /  80  40  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 46  38  50  34  52 /  80  30  20   0   0
ANIMAS                  54  36  55  31  59 /  80  40  20   0   0
HACHITA                 53  34  55  32  58 /  70  30  20   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          53  33  55  31  59 /  80  40  20   0   0
CLOVERDALE              49  38  53  33  57 /  90  40  20   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ402-
     414>416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER









000
FXUS64 KEPZ 311103
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
402 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS.
UPPER TROUGH BRINGING THIS WEATHER WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE THE
BORDERLAND SUNDAY...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO END AND SKIES TO BEGIN
CLEARING SOMEWHAT. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP MUCH OF NEXT WEEK MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM EVENT HAS BEEN LESS THAN OVERWHELMING SO FAR...MOSTLY
DUE TO TRICKY SNOW LEVEL FORECAST. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
WITH DEVELOPING SECONDARY UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA.
MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE BAND IS ABOUT THROUGH THE CWA WITH A MORE
CONVECTIVE...UNSTABLE LOOKING BAND ROTATING AROUND THE DEVELOPING
LOW AND NOW OVER THE SONORAN DESERT OF MEXICO AND ARIZONA. THE AREA
COULD SEE A BREAK FROM MOST PRECIP UNTIL THIS MORE CONVECTIVE BAND
ROTATES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS STILL SHOWING HEAVY
SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT AGAIN...FORECASTING THE SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE TRICKY. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM12 AND HRRR
ARE STILL SHOWING A GOOD SNOW MAX OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SACS
BUT AT ELEVATIONS MOSTLY ABOVE 8500 FT. MESONET OBS SHOW MUCH OF THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SACS JUST BELOW FREEZING (AROUND 7000 FT) AND
MOST OF THE HIGH SACS ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THE WEST SLOPES ARE
STILL IN THE UPPER 30S. SNOW LEVELS RIGHT NOW ARE PROBABLY AROUND
7000 FT AND WILL PROBABLY STAY THERE BUT FLUCTUATE. WILL LEAVE
WARNING WORDING AT 8000 FT AND ABOVE. FOR THE GILA...LIMITED OBS
OVER THE BLACK RANGE SHOW TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE AREAS
FURTHER WEST BELOW 7000 FT ARE IN THE UPPER 30S. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 7500-8000 FT IN THIS AREA. WILL LEAVE WARNING
ALONE FOR THIS ZONE TOO BUT LOOKING DOUBTFUL HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT
MUCH OF ANY INHABITABLE AREAS. FOR THE LOWLANDS RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH RAINFALL OF MAYBE ANOTHER QUARTER TO
HALF INCH POSSIBLE.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SIMILAR WITH ENDING THE EVENT. SECONDARY LOW
BECOMES THE DOMINANT LOW AND DROPS DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAKLY LINKED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
LEAVE LOW POPS RUNNING IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD END IN THE
AFTERNOON.

REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE A NICE DIVERSION FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS THE
UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAKENED PACIFIC FRONT ALOFT
WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A RATHER
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES IN THURSDAY FOR PERHAPS SOME LOWER
CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE
VERY FEW CLOUDS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH BRIEF MINOR COOLING THURSDAY WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 31/12Z-01/12Z...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPLY THE REGION WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE RESULTING
IN LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SHRA BKN-OVC010-020. PERIODS OF
-RA WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 3-5SM. BRIEF EXCURSIONS
INTO IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH RA RESULTING IN 1-2SM
OVC005-008.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG UPPER LOWS OVER NEVADA AND WEST OF THE BAJA WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE FIRE ZONES TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LOWLANDS AND SNOW FALL...OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY...OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOWS DROP
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE SHOWERS TO END AND
SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY STILL BELOW
NORMAL BUT THEN WARMUP BEGINS AND BY TUESDAY INTO THE END OF THE NEW
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL WARMUP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RH`S WILL
RANGE FROM 65-75% TODAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN DROP BACK INTO THE 40S%
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 54  38  53  34  58 /  60  30  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           57  37  51  32  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              53  38  52  34  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              51  34  52  31  53 /  70  30  20   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              38  29  38  23  43 /  90  40  20   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  35  52  34  56 /  60  30  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             47  36  50  32  52 /  80  40  20   0   0
DEMING                  53  36  53  32  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
LORDSBURG               52  35  53  31  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      54  38  54  35  58 /  70  30  20   0   0
DELL CITY               54  36  49  29  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            55  37  54  35  59 /  70  30  20   0   0
LOMA LINDA              48  39  49  32  51 /  70  30  20   0   0
FABENS                  56  39  52  33  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  38  53  34  57 /  70  30  20   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  37  53  35  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           53  35  53  30  55 /  70  30  20   0   0
HATCH                   52  37  55  33  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                52  38  53  36  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  37  52  33  56 /  70  30  20   0   0
MAYHILL                 40  34  41  27  48 /  80  40  20   0   0
MESCALERO               42  33  45  25  45 /  90  40  20   0   0
TIMBERON                41  33  45  28  47 /  90  30  20   0   0
WINSTON                 43  34  48  30  51 /  80  30  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  36  49  34  52 /  80  30  20   0   0
SPACEPORT               51  36  55  32  56 /  70  30  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            42  34  49  30  51 /  90  40  20   0   0
HURLEY                  48  36  50  32  52 /  80  40  20   0   0
CLIFF                   50  33  54  30  56 /  80  40  20   0   0
MULE CREEK              49  30  52  27  53 /  80  40  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 46  38  50  34  52 /  80  30  20   0   0
ANIMAS                  54  36  55  31  59 /  80  40  20   0   0
HACHITA                 53  34  55  32  58 /  70  30  20   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          53  33  55  31  59 /  80  40  20   0   0
CLOVERDALE              49  38  53  33  57 /  90  40  20   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ402-
     414>416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER








000
FXUS64 KSJT 311053
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
453 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

All terminals will have MVFR conditions degrading to IFR within
the next several hours as a large area of widespread rain moves
east over all of West Central Texas. Conditions will continue to
deteriorate through today and into the evening hours with
occasional LIFR conditions possible. Conditions are not expected
to begin improving until after 06Z tonight.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low spinning over southern California and the northern Baja
early this morning will continue to split from its parent upper
trough through today. The separated upper low will drift south down
the Baja Peninsula through tonight while the upper trough moves over
West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Large-scale ascent associated
with the upper level system is producing a large area of showers
over West Texas and into the southern Panhandle early this morning.
This area of showers will continue to drift east over our western
counties before sunrise and will envelop the entire forecast area
through the remainder of the day. Have included a chance of isolated
thunder over the forecast area this evening and overnight as the
area of showers continues to move over the area. The chance of
showers will decrease from west to east through tonight. Still
expecting widespread rainfall amounts around 1/2 inch with localized
amounts near 1 1/2 inch in the heavier showers.

Afternoon highs will range from  the upper 40s over the Big Country
to the mid 50s over the southern CWA. Lows tomorrow morning will
only be slightly cooler than the afternoon highs, in the mid 40s
over the Big Country and the lower 50s over the southern CWA.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

A slight chance of showers will continue Sunday, across mainly the
eastern and southern parts of West Central Texas, as the main trough
axis swings east of the region. In addition, a cold front will move
through the area, with drier/cooler air filtering in behind the
boundary. Winds will become light by early morning Monday, allowing
for fairly good radiational cooling conditions. Overnight lows will
range from the mid 20s across the Big Country, to near 30 across the
Interstate 10 corridor. Highs on Monday will be below season
normals, in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Slightly warmer temperatures are in store Tuesday, and will be
dependent on the eventual track of an upper level low. Models have
shifted the track of this low a bit farther north, generally moving
across Central Texas late Tuesday/Wednesday. This track would bring
a chance of showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm, to the
southeast half of the forecast area. For now, only slight chance
PoPs were introduced for this area, as uncertainty remains high on
the eventual track of this low.

A steady warm up will ensue Wednesday with highs back into the mid
to upper 60s, possibly pushing the 70 degree mark. A cold front will
move through the area Wednesday night, bringing a return of slightly
below normal temperatures through the end of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  50  47  52  27  48 / 100  60  20  10   0
San Angelo  54  50  56  30  52 / 100  40  20  10   0
Junction  56  52  61  32  52 /  90  60  30  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 311053
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
453 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

All terminals will have MVFR conditions degrading to IFR within
the next several hours as a large area of widespread rain moves
east over all of West Central Texas. Conditions will continue to
deteriorate through today and into the evening hours with
occasional LIFR conditions possible. Conditions are not expected
to begin improving until after 06Z tonight.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low spinning over southern California and the northern Baja
early this morning will continue to split from its parent upper
trough through today. The separated upper low will drift south down
the Baja Peninsula through tonight while the upper trough moves over
West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Large-scale ascent associated
with the upper level system is producing a large area of showers
over West Texas and into the southern Panhandle early this morning.
This area of showers will continue to drift east over our western
counties before sunrise and will envelop the entire forecast area
through the remainder of the day. Have included a chance of isolated
thunder over the forecast area this evening and overnight as the
area of showers continues to move over the area. The chance of
showers will decrease from west to east through tonight. Still
expecting widespread rainfall amounts around 1/2 inch with localized
amounts near 1 1/2 inch in the heavier showers.

Afternoon highs will range from  the upper 40s over the Big Country
to the mid 50s over the southern CWA. Lows tomorrow morning will
only be slightly cooler than the afternoon highs, in the mid 40s
over the Big Country and the lower 50s over the southern CWA.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

A slight chance of showers will continue Sunday, across mainly the
eastern and southern parts of West Central Texas, as the main trough
axis swings east of the region. In addition, a cold front will move
through the area, with drier/cooler air filtering in behind the
boundary. Winds will become light by early morning Monday, allowing
for fairly good radiational cooling conditions. Overnight lows will
range from the mid 20s across the Big Country, to near 30 across the
Interstate 10 corridor. Highs on Monday will be below season
normals, in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Slightly warmer temperatures are in store Tuesday, and will be
dependent on the eventual track of an upper level low. Models have
shifted the track of this low a bit farther north, generally moving
across Central Texas late Tuesday/Wednesday. This track would bring
a chance of showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm, to the
southeast half of the forecast area. For now, only slight chance
PoPs were introduced for this area, as uncertainty remains high on
the eventual track of this low.

A steady warm up will ensue Wednesday with highs back into the mid
to upper 60s, possibly pushing the 70 degree mark. A cold front will
move through the area Wednesday night, bringing a return of slightly
below normal temperatures through the end of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  50  47  52  27  48 / 100  60  20  10   0
San Angelo  54  50  56  30  52 / 100  40  20  10   0
Junction  56  52  61  32  52 /  90  60  30  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99





000
FXUS64 KCRP 311032
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY (THROUGH HIGHER CHANCES REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST) WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
DISTURBANCES LIFTING AROUND AND ACROSS THE REGION. AS TROUGH
TRACKS EASTWARD ANTICIPATED DRYING TO THEN OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LESS HIGH IN
MUCH DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK SOME LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...KEEPING MAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A GOOD BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS MORE DRYING OCCURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
SLOWING UPPER TROUGH EVEN MORE THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH OFTEN HAPPENS
WITH A CLOSED-OFF SYSTEM LIKE THIS FOR TIME OF YEAR. CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST (ALL WITHIN 12-18 HOURS OF EACH
OTHER). WILL DELAY PASSAGE OF TROUGH ABOUT ANOTHER 12 HOURS...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SYSTEM IS MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION
(IF NOT A BIT SLOWER) BY THE 00Z SUNDAY RUN. ALSO...MODELS ARE GOING
FARTHER SOUTH (IN PART EXPLAINING THE SLOWER SYSTEM) AS PREVIOUS
RUNS. THUS...BEST SHOT OF RAIN NOW APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
NOT TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS AND GULFMEX. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY (UNLESS UPPER SYSTEM IS SLOWER AND THUS DRYING
WILL BE SLOWER). SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE ONCE SYSTEM PASSES EAST (IF IT
DOES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMING DOWN
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. NICE BUT COOL ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DAMP ON
TUESDAY BUT WARMER ON WEDNESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...UNLESS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN. TURNING
COOLER ON THURSDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ISC
COLLABORATION.

BEFORE TUESDAY...QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
FRONT...MAINLY TOWARD THE EASTERN AREAS/GULFMEX AND NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS IN THE GULF WATERS IN EXCESS OF GALE
FORCE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME (AFTER
DISCUSSION WITH KBRO AND KHGX). MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTH ON MONDAY
TO PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO RAIN
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS
IMPACTS FROM UPPER SYSTEM STILL WEST AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
DELAYED. STAYING CLOSER TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  61  75  46  56  /  20  50  20  40  10
VICTORIA          69  59  72  40  54  /  30  50  40  30  10
LAREDO            74  59  76  48  54  /  50  50  10  30  10
ALICE             73  60  77  45  56  /  20  60  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          69  62  70  43  54  /  20  40  30  40  10
COTULLA           68  57  72  44  56  /  50  50  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  61  78  46  56  /  20  50  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  62  70  49  55  /  20  40  20  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 311032
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY (THROUGH HIGHER CHANCES REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST) WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
DISTURBANCES LIFTING AROUND AND ACROSS THE REGION. AS TROUGH
TRACKS EASTWARD ANTICIPATED DRYING TO THEN OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LESS HIGH IN
MUCH DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK SOME LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...KEEPING MAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHEAST ZONES. FLOW TAKES ON A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A GOOD BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS MORE DRYING OCCURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
SLOWING UPPER TROUGH EVEN MORE THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH OFTEN HAPPENS
WITH A CLOSED-OFF SYSTEM LIKE THIS FOR TIME OF YEAR. CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST (ALL WITHIN 12-18 HOURS OF EACH
OTHER). WILL DELAY PASSAGE OF TROUGH ABOUT ANOTHER 12 HOURS...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SYSTEM IS MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION
(IF NOT A BIT SLOWER) BY THE 00Z SUNDAY RUN. ALSO...MODELS ARE GOING
FARTHER SOUTH (IN PART EXPLAINING THE SLOWER SYSTEM) AS PREVIOUS
RUNS. THUS...BEST SHOT OF RAIN NOW APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
NOT TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS AND GULFMEX. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY (UNLESS UPPER SYSTEM IS SLOWER AND THUS DRYING
WILL BE SLOWER). SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE ONCE SYSTEM PASSES EAST (IF IT
DOES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMING DOWN
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. NICE BUT COOL ON FRIDAY. COOL AND DAMP ON
TUESDAY BUT WARMER ON WEDNESDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...UNLESS
SYSTEM IS SLOWER WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN. TURNING
COOLER ON THURSDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ISC
COLLABORATION.

BEFORE TUESDAY...QUICK SHOT OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
FRONT...MAINLY TOWARD THE EASTERN AREAS/GULFMEX AND NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS IN THE GULF WATERS IN EXCESS OF GALE
FORCE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME (AFTER
DISCUSSION WITH KBRO AND KHGX). MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTH ON MONDAY
TO PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO RAIN
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING AS
IMPACTS FROM UPPER SYSTEM STILL WEST AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
DELAYED. STAYING CLOSER TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    72  61  75  46  56  /  20  50  20  40  10
VICTORIA          69  59  72  40  54  /  30  50  40  30  10
LAREDO            74  59  76  48  54  /  50  50  10  30  10
ALICE             73  60  77  45  56  /  20  60  20  30  10
ROCKPORT          69  62  70  43  54  /  20  40  30  40  10
COTULLA           68  57  72  44  56  /  50  50  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  61  78  46  56  /  20  50  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  62  70  49  55  /  20  40  20  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KMAF 311022
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
422 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread light to moderate rain is covering much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico early this morning. This precipitation is
occurring in the moist conveyor belt ahead of a large upper level
low pressure system centered across western Arizona. Will continue
likely to categorical pops this morning for rain as this moisture
continues to push eastward across the forecast area. By this
afternoon the moisture belt will be exiting eastward into central
Texas and precipitation chances will decrease to chance category
except in the central and eastern Permian Basin where likely
to categorical pops will continue near the departing moisture.
There could even be some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
near the Rio Grande River where instability will increase ahead
of the upper low.

By tonight through Sunday night the upper level low pressure
system is progged to split. The southern portion will become the
remains of the upper low and move south into Mexico while the
northern portion transitions into a trough. The net effect will be
a weakening of the entire system. Precipitation chances will be on
the decrease with the best chance across mainly areas south of the
Pecos River in west Texas east of the upper level trough axis.
Progged lapse rates and instability suggest isolated thunderstorms
possible.

By Monday through next Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
is forecast to track from southwest Mexico northeast to south central
Texas by Wednesday. As the system approaches the Big Bend late
Tuesday, showers will be possible in the Big Bend and lower Trans
Pecos region. High temperatures are expected to remain below
normal through Monday but warm to above normal levels by next
Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms.

By next Thursday and Friday below normal temperatures are
expected again behind a dry cold front as an upper level
trough moves across the western half of the nation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  39  52  28  / 100  20  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  43  53  30  / 100  30  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                55  39  52  32  /  80  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  61  45  62  38  /  70  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  42  56  37  /  70  30  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  36  49  34  /  70  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   52  36  52  30  /  90  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   60  35  56  26  /  70  40  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    55  40  53  29  / 100  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  55  40  53  27  / 100  20  10   0
WINK TX                    58  39  58  32  /  90  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 311022
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
422 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread light to moderate rain is covering much of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico early this morning. This precipitation is
occurring in the moist conveyor belt ahead of a large upper level
low pressure system centered across western Arizona. Will continue
likely to categorical pops this morning for rain as this moisture
continues to push eastward across the forecast area. By this
afternoon the moisture belt will be exiting eastward into central
Texas and precipitation chances will decrease to chance category
except in the central and eastern Permian Basin where likely
to categorical pops will continue near the departing moisture.
There could even be some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
near the Rio Grande River where instability will increase ahead
of the upper low.

By tonight through Sunday night the upper level low pressure
system is progged to split. The southern portion will become the
remains of the upper low and move south into Mexico while the
northern portion transitions into a trough. The net effect will be
a weakening of the entire system. Precipitation chances will be on
the decrease with the best chance across mainly areas south of the
Pecos River in west Texas east of the upper level trough axis.
Progged lapse rates and instability suggest isolated thunderstorms
possible.

By Monday through next Wednesday the upper level low pressure area
is forecast to track from southwest Mexico northeast to south central
Texas by Wednesday. As the system approaches the Big Bend late
Tuesday, showers will be possible in the Big Bend and lower Trans
Pecos region. High temperatures are expected to remain below
normal through Monday but warm to above normal levels by next
Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface lee trough/low forms.

By next Thursday and Friday below normal temperatures are
expected again behind a dry cold front as an upper level
trough moves across the western half of the nation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  39  52  28  / 100  20  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  43  53  30  / 100  30  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                55  39  52  32  /  80  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  61  45  62  38  /  70  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  42  56  37  /  70  30  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  36  49  34  /  70  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   52  36  52  30  /  90  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   60  35  56  26  /  70  40  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    55  40  53  29  / 100  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  55  40  53  27  / 100  20  10   0
WINK TX                    58  39  58  32  /  90  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KHGX 311015
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS AND A TRANSITION TO A SW FLOW ALOFT
(AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED IMPULSES). MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP APPROACHING AREAS WEST OF A COLLEGE
STATION-EDNA LINE LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. THOUGH ISOLATED
POPCORN SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER 2 PM FURTHER EAST...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY DURING THE DAY.

BKN BAND OF SHRA SHOULD PUSH EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE TX
DURING THE EVNG HOURS BRINGING JUST NUISANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
PAST FEW TEXAS TECH WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WX
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ITSELF MOVES INTO SE TX EARLY SUNDAY AFTN.
LOWERED POPS SOME FROM MIDNIGHT-NOON FOR MOST AREAS BUT HAVE A
FEELING THEY COULD STILL POTENTIALLY BE OVERDONE DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD. WE DO EXPECT SCT (RE)DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CLL AREA EARLY IN THE AFTN AND EVENTUALLY FILL INTO
A LINE OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA AS IT APPROACHES THE METRO AREA
AROUND 3 PM & OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE EVNG. THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING W/ DRY COOL
WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

LATEST MODELS GUESSES KICKOUT THE CUTOFF BAJA LOW LATE MONDAY AND
TAKE IT ON A MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN EARLIER RUNS. DEVELOPING
SFC COASTAL LOW WILL THEREBY ALSO TAKING A MORE NRN TRACK &
CLOSER TO THE UPPER TX COASTLINE. RESULT WOULD BE AN EXPANSION OF
RAIN FURTHER INLAND TUE/WED RATHER THAN JUST CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE. BUMPED POPS UP A TOUCH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD BUT
THEY WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING/TRACK OF UPPER LOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. MAY NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS NEAR THE COAST AS
DYNAMICS SETTING UP SIMILAR TO LAST THURS. AGAIN - WAY TOO FAR OUT
& THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE - BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

ONCE THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RIDGE OUT WEST WILL
AMPLIFY PUTTING US IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DURING THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEK.  47

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST WINDS TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE ERN
U.S. TODAY. BUT WE SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS OUR
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT/SAT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEEPEN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM (ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT) PROG-
GED TO SWEEP INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT...BUT MAY BE PRECEDED
BY A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING/MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUN. THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAKE FOR UNSETTLED WX/SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS STARTING LATE SAT ON INTO SUN. CAUTION FLAGS
MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THESE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORI-
ES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER
NOT GOING WITH A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME AS MODELS GENERALLY KEEPING
SUSTAINED WINDS UNDER CRITERIA...BUT NOT RULING OUT WIND GUSTS AT/OR
NEAR GALE FORCE FOR MON. WINDS/SEAS TO DECREASE TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT/MODERATE E/SELY
WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONT PROGGED FOR THURS. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTIN-
UES TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX. SHORT-RANGE MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE
LIGHT PCPN STARTING THIS AFTN AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS FROM THE W
AND SW...BUT WILL LIKELY OPT TO KEEP ANY MENTION OUT (SAVE FOR VCSH)
UNTIL LATER. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  58  65  37  49 /  40  60  60  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  58  69  41  51 /  20  50  70  20   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  57  64  45  50 /  20  40  50  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 311015
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
415 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS AND A TRANSITION TO A SW FLOW ALOFT
(AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED IMPULSES). MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP APPROACHING AREAS WEST OF A COLLEGE
STATION-EDNA LINE LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. THOUGH ISOLATED
POPCORN SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY AFTER 2 PM FURTHER EAST...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY DURING THE DAY.

BKN BAND OF SHRA SHOULD PUSH EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE TX
DURING THE EVNG HOURS BRINGING JUST NUISANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
PAST FEW TEXAS TECH WRF RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A BREAK IN THE WX
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ITSELF MOVES INTO SE TX EARLY SUNDAY AFTN.
LOWERED POPS SOME FROM MIDNIGHT-NOON FOR MOST AREAS BUT HAVE A
FEELING THEY COULD STILL POTENTIALLY BE OVERDONE DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD. WE DO EXPECT SCT (RE)DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CLL AREA EARLY IN THE AFTN AND EVENTUALLY FILL INTO
A LINE OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA AS IT APPROACHES THE METRO AREA
AROUND 3 PM & OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE EVNG. THE PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING W/ DRY COOL
WX EXPECTED MONDAY.

LATEST MODELS GUESSES KICKOUT THE CUTOFF BAJA LOW LATE MONDAY AND
TAKE IT ON A MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN EARLIER RUNS. DEVELOPING
SFC COASTAL LOW WILL THEREBY ALSO TAKING A MORE NRN TRACK &
CLOSER TO THE UPPER TX COASTLINE. RESULT WOULD BE AN EXPANSION OF
RAIN FURTHER INLAND TUE/WED RATHER THAN JUST CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE. BUMPED POPS UP A TOUCH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD BUT
THEY WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING/TRACK OF UPPER LOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. MAY NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS NEAR THE COAST AS
DYNAMICS SETTING UP SIMILAR TO LAST THURS. AGAIN - WAY TOO FAR OUT
& THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE - BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

ONCE THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS TO THE EAST...RIDGE OUT WEST WILL
AMPLIFY PUTTING US IN A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DURING THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEK.  47

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST WINDS TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE ERN
U.S. TODAY. BUT WE SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS OUR
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT/SAT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEEPEN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM (ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT) PROG-
GED TO SWEEP INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT...BUT MAY BE PRECEDED
BY A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING/MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST DURING
THE DAY ON SUN. THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAKE FOR UNSETTLED WX/SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS STARTING LATE SAT ON INTO SUN. CAUTION FLAGS
MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THESE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORI-
ES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER
NOT GOING WITH A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME AS MODELS GENERALLY KEEPING
SUSTAINED WINDS UNDER CRITERIA...BUT NOT RULING OUT WIND GUSTS AT/OR
NEAR GALE FORCE FOR MON. WINDS/SEAS TO DECREASE TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT/MODERATE E/SELY
WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONT PROGGED FOR THURS. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTIN-
UES TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX. SHORT-RANGE MODELS HINTING AT POSSIBLE
LIGHT PCPN STARTING THIS AFTN AS DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS FROM THE W
AND SW...BUT WILL LIKELY OPT TO KEEP ANY MENTION OUT (SAVE FOR VCSH)
UNTIL LATER. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  58  65  37  49 /  40  60  60  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  58  69  41  51 /  20  50  70  20   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  57  64  45  50 /  20  40  50  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 311011
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
411 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low spinning over southern California and the northern Baja
early this morning will continue to split from its parent upper
trough through today. The separated upper low will drift south down
the Baja Peninsula through tonight while the upper trough moves over
West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Large-scale ascent associated
with the upper level system is producing a large area of showers
over West Texas and into the southern Panhandle early this morning.
This area of showers will continue to drift east over our western
counties before sunrise and will envelop the entire forecast area
through the remainder of the day. Have included a chance of isolated
thunder over the forecast area this evening and overnight as the
area of showers continues to move over the area. The chance of
showers will decrease from west to east through tonight. Still
expecting widespread rainfall amounts around 1/2 inch with localized
amounts near 1 1/2 inch in the heavier showers.

Afternoon highs will range from  the upper 40s over the Big Country
to the mid 50s over the southern CWA. Lows tomorrow morning will
only be slightly cooler than the afternoon highs, in the mid 40s
over the Big Country and the lower 50s over the southern CWA.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

A slight chance of showers will continue Sunday, across mainly the
eastern and southern parts of West Central Texas, as the main trough
axis swings east of the region. In addition, a cold front will move
through the area, with drier/cooler air filtering in behind the
boundary. Winds will become light by early morning Monday, allowing
for fairly good radiational cooling conditions. Overnight lows will
range from the mid 20s across the Big Country, to near 30 across the
Interstate 10 corridor. Highs on Monday will be below season
normals, in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Slightly warmer temperatures are in store Tuesday, and will be
dependent on the eventual track of an upper level low. Models have
shifted the track of this low a bit farther north, generally moving
across Central Texas late Tuesday/Wednesday. This track would bring
a chance of showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm, to the
southeast half of the forecast area. For now, only slight chance
PoPs were introduced for this area, as uncertainty remains high on
the eventual track of this low.

A steady warm up will ensue Wednesday with highs back into the mid
to upper 60s, possibly pushing the 70 degree mark. A cold front will
move through the area Wednesday night, bringing a return of slightly
below normal temperatures through the end of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  50  47  52  27  48 / 100  60  20  10   0
San Angelo  54  50  56  30  52 / 100  40  20  10   0
Junction  56  52  61  32  52 /  90  60  30  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 311011
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
411 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low spinning over southern California and the northern Baja
early this morning will continue to split from its parent upper
trough through today. The separated upper low will drift south down
the Baja Peninsula through tonight while the upper trough moves over
West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Large-scale ascent associated
with the upper level system is producing a large area of showers
over West Texas and into the southern Panhandle early this morning.
This area of showers will continue to drift east over our western
counties before sunrise and will envelop the entire forecast area
through the remainder of the day. Have included a chance of isolated
thunder over the forecast area this evening and overnight as the
area of showers continues to move over the area. The chance of
showers will decrease from west to east through tonight. Still
expecting widespread rainfall amounts around 1/2 inch with localized
amounts near 1 1/2 inch in the heavier showers.

Afternoon highs will range from  the upper 40s over the Big Country
to the mid 50s over the southern CWA. Lows tomorrow morning will
only be slightly cooler than the afternoon highs, in the mid 40s
over the Big Country and the lower 50s over the southern CWA.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

A slight chance of showers will continue Sunday, across mainly the
eastern and southern parts of West Central Texas, as the main trough
axis swings east of the region. In addition, a cold front will move
through the area, with drier/cooler air filtering in behind the
boundary. Winds will become light by early morning Monday, allowing
for fairly good radiational cooling conditions. Overnight lows will
range from the mid 20s across the Big Country, to near 30 across the
Interstate 10 corridor. Highs on Monday will be below season
normals, in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Slightly warmer temperatures are in store Tuesday, and will be
dependent on the eventual track of an upper level low. Models have
shifted the track of this low a bit farther north, generally moving
across Central Texas late Tuesday/Wednesday. This track would bring
a chance of showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm, to the
southeast half of the forecast area. For now, only slight chance
PoPs were introduced for this area, as uncertainty remains high on
the eventual track of this low.

A steady warm up will ensue Wednesday with highs back into the mid
to upper 60s, possibly pushing the 70 degree mark. A cold front will
move through the area Wednesday night, bringing a return of slightly
below normal temperatures through the end of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  50  47  52  27  48 / 100  60  20  10   0
San Angelo  54  50  56  30  52 / 100  40  20  10   0
Junction  56  52  61  32  52 /  90  60  30  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 311011
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
411 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low spinning over southern California and the northern Baja
early this morning will continue to split from its parent upper
trough through today. The separated upper low will drift south down
the Baja Peninsula through tonight while the upper trough moves over
West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Large-scale ascent associated
with the upper level system is producing a large area of showers
over West Texas and into the southern Panhandle early this morning.
This area of showers will continue to drift east over our western
counties before sunrise and will envelop the entire forecast area
through the remainder of the day. Have included a chance of isolated
thunder over the forecast area this evening and overnight as the
area of showers continues to move over the area. The chance of
showers will decrease from west to east through tonight. Still
expecting widespread rainfall amounts around 1/2 inch with localized
amounts near 1 1/2 inch in the heavier showers.

Afternoon highs will range from  the upper 40s over the Big Country
to the mid 50s over the southern CWA. Lows tomorrow morning will
only be slightly cooler than the afternoon highs, in the mid 40s
over the Big Country and the lower 50s over the southern CWA.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

A slight chance of showers will continue Sunday, across mainly the
eastern and southern parts of West Central Texas, as the main trough
axis swings east of the region. In addition, a cold front will move
through the area, with drier/cooler air filtering in behind the
boundary. Winds will become light by early morning Monday, allowing
for fairly good radiational cooling conditions. Overnight lows will
range from the mid 20s across the Big Country, to near 30 across the
Interstate 10 corridor. Highs on Monday will be below season
normals, in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Slightly warmer temperatures are in store Tuesday, and will be
dependent on the eventual track of an upper level low. Models have
shifted the track of this low a bit farther north, generally moving
across Central Texas late Tuesday/Wednesday. This track would bring
a chance of showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm, to the
southeast half of the forecast area. For now, only slight chance
PoPs were introduced for this area, as uncertainty remains high on
the eventual track of this low.

A steady warm up will ensue Wednesday with highs back into the mid
to upper 60s, possibly pushing the 70 degree mark. A cold front will
move through the area Wednesday night, bringing a return of slightly
below normal temperatures through the end of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  50  47  52  27  48 / 100  60  20  10   0
San Angelo  54  50  56  30  52 / 100  40  20  10   0
Junction  56  52  61  32  52 /  90  60  30  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 311011
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
411 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low spinning over southern California and the northern Baja
early this morning will continue to split from its parent upper
trough through today. The separated upper low will drift south down
the Baja Peninsula through tonight while the upper trough moves over
West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Large-scale ascent associated
with the upper level system is producing a large area of showers
over West Texas and into the southern Panhandle early this morning.
This area of showers will continue to drift east over our western
counties before sunrise and will envelop the entire forecast area
through the remainder of the day. Have included a chance of isolated
thunder over the forecast area this evening and overnight as the
area of showers continues to move over the area. The chance of
showers will decrease from west to east through tonight. Still
expecting widespread rainfall amounts around 1/2 inch with localized
amounts near 1 1/2 inch in the heavier showers.

Afternoon highs will range from  the upper 40s over the Big Country
to the mid 50s over the southern CWA. Lows tomorrow morning will
only be slightly cooler than the afternoon highs, in the mid 40s
over the Big Country and the lower 50s over the southern CWA.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

A slight chance of showers will continue Sunday, across mainly the
eastern and southern parts of West Central Texas, as the main trough
axis swings east of the region. In addition, a cold front will move
through the area, with drier/cooler air filtering in behind the
boundary. Winds will become light by early morning Monday, allowing
for fairly good radiational cooling conditions. Overnight lows will
range from the mid 20s across the Big Country, to near 30 across the
Interstate 10 corridor. Highs on Monday will be below season
normals, in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Slightly warmer temperatures are in store Tuesday, and will be
dependent on the eventual track of an upper level low. Models have
shifted the track of this low a bit farther north, generally moving
across Central Texas late Tuesday/Wednesday. This track would bring
a chance of showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm, to the
southeast half of the forecast area. For now, only slight chance
PoPs were introduced for this area, as uncertainty remains high on
the eventual track of this low.

A steady warm up will ensue Wednesday with highs back into the mid
to upper 60s, possibly pushing the 70 degree mark. A cold front will
move through the area Wednesday night, bringing a return of slightly
below normal temperatures through the end of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  50  47  52  27  48 / 100  60  20  10   0
San Angelo  54  50  56  30  52 / 100  40  20  10   0
Junction  56  52  61  32  52 /  90  60  30  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KBRO 310954
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
354 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW SPINNING OVER SOCAL AND BAJA CA. LOTS OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HELPING TO SPREAD HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO NE MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA CHANCES TO REMAIN LOW THIS
WEEKEND WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND NEED LIFT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
ABSENT ACROSS THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS WITH
DIFFLUENCE INCREASING AND AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.

TODAY...AS MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES OVER WEST TEXAS AND
PRESSURE BEGIN TO LOWER LEESIDE TROUGHING TO STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
MEXICO PLATEAU. SOUTHEAST 925-850 FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
YESTERDAY TODAY WILL SEE A MORE TYPICAL SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER REGIME.
WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH INCREASING THE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES NOT ESPECIALLY WARM BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEY AND
RANCHLANDS. MODEL POP GUIDANCE IS BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE EAST BUT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW GRADE POPS
IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SEVERAL
SPOKES OF ENERGY SEEN OVER NW MEXICO ROTATING NE AROUND THE TROUGH.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS VERY
HIGH ON THE 12 HOUR POPS BUT CONSERVATIVE ON THE 6 HOUR. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE  PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST AND
LOWER GRADE RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST. VERY MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...INTERESTING DAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXITING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN
THE MORNING. LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND 700-850MB TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A STRONG CAP
DEVELOPING. DOWNSLOPING AND THE WARM TO MIX OUT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
SQUASHING ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT THIS BUT
DECIDED TO GO HIGHER. MOST AREA WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S WITH EVEN
THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACH MAKING IT A REALLY SUPER SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
SUPPORTED BY A NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH AND TO A LESSER EXTENT A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON MONDAY
WITH SPEEDS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. WILL BE NOTICABLY COLDER THAN
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 30 DEGREES COLDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AT LEAST MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE
AREAS WITH CHANCES WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS
INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL
TODAY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST. SCEC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO SLOWLY RELAX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. A LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH POSSIBLE GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN HIGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AS A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH TUES NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW/TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  62  77  55 /  20  20  10  40
BROWNSVILLE          75  63  79  55 /  20  20  10  40
HARLINGEN            75  62  81  53 /  20  20  10  40
MCALLEN              76  62  83  53 /  20  30  10  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  60  83  53 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58



000
FXUS64 KBRO 310954
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
354 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW SPINNING OVER SOCAL AND BAJA CA. LOTS OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HELPING TO SPREAD HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO NE MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA CHANCES TO REMAIN LOW THIS
WEEKEND WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND NEED LIFT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
ABSENT ACROSS THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS WITH
DIFFLUENCE INCREASING AND AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.

TODAY...AS MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES OVER WEST TEXAS AND
PRESSURE BEGIN TO LOWER LEESIDE TROUGHING TO STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
MEXICO PLATEAU. SOUTHEAST 925-850 FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
YESTERDAY TODAY WILL SEE A MORE TYPICAL SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER REGIME.
WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH INCREASING THE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES NOT ESPECIALLY WARM BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEY AND
RANCHLANDS. MODEL POP GUIDANCE IS BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE EAST BUT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW GRADE POPS
IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SEVERAL
SPOKES OF ENERGY SEEN OVER NW MEXICO ROTATING NE AROUND THE TROUGH.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS VERY
HIGH ON THE 12 HOUR POPS BUT CONSERVATIVE ON THE 6 HOUR. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE  PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST AND
LOWER GRADE RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST. VERY MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...INTERESTING DAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXITING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN
THE MORNING. LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND 700-850MB TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A STRONG CAP
DEVELOPING. DOWNSLOPING AND THE WARM TO MIX OUT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
SQUASHING ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT THIS BUT
DECIDED TO GO HIGHER. MOST AREA WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S WITH EVEN
THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACH MAKING IT A REALLY SUPER SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
SUPPORTED BY A NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH AND TO A LESSER EXTENT A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON MONDAY
WITH SPEEDS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. WILL BE NOTICABLY COLDER THAN
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 30 DEGREES COLDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AT LEAST MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE
AREAS WITH CHANCES WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS
INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL
TODAY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST. SCEC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO SLOWLY RELAX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. A LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH POSSIBLE GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN HIGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AS A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH TUES NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW/TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  62  77  55 /  20  20  10  40
BROWNSVILLE          75  63  79  55 /  20  20  10  40
HARLINGEN            75  62  81  53 /  20  20  10  40
MCALLEN              76  62  83  53 /  20  30  10  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  60  83  53 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58



000
FXUS64 KBRO 310954
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
354 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW SPINNING OVER SOCAL AND BAJA CA. LOTS OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HELPING TO SPREAD HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO NE MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA CHANCES TO REMAIN LOW THIS
WEEKEND WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND NEED LIFT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
ABSENT ACROSS THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS WITH
DIFFLUENCE INCREASING AND AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.

TODAY...AS MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES OVER WEST TEXAS AND
PRESSURE BEGIN TO LOWER LEESIDE TROUGHING TO STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
MEXICO PLATEAU. SOUTHEAST 925-850 FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
YESTERDAY TODAY WILL SEE A MORE TYPICAL SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER REGIME.
WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH INCREASING THE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES NOT ESPECIALLY WARM BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEY AND
RANCHLANDS. MODEL POP GUIDANCE IS BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE EAST BUT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW GRADE POPS
IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SEVERAL
SPOKES OF ENERGY SEEN OVER NW MEXICO ROTATING NE AROUND THE TROUGH.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS VERY
HIGH ON THE 12 HOUR POPS BUT CONSERVATIVE ON THE 6 HOUR. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE  PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST AND
LOWER GRADE RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST. VERY MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...INTERESTING DAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXITING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN
THE MORNING. LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND 700-850MB TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A STRONG CAP
DEVELOPING. DOWNSLOPING AND THE WARM TO MIX OUT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
SQUASHING ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT THIS BUT
DECIDED TO GO HIGHER. MOST AREA WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S WITH EVEN
THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACH MAKING IT A REALLY SUPER SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
SUPPORTED BY A NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH AND TO A LESSER EXTENT A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON MONDAY
WITH SPEEDS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. WILL BE NOTICABLY COLDER THAN
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 30 DEGREES COLDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AT LEAST MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE
AREAS WITH CHANCES WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS
INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL
TODAY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST. SCEC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO SLOWLY RELAX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. A LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH POSSIBLE GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN HIGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AS A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH TUES NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW/TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  62  77  55 /  20  20  10  40
BROWNSVILLE          75  63  79  55 /  20  20  10  40
HARLINGEN            75  62  81  53 /  20  20  10  40
MCALLEN              76  62  83  53 /  20  30  10  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  60  83  53 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58



000
FXUS64 KBRO 310954
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
354 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH/LOW SPINNING OVER SOCAL AND BAJA CA. LOTS OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HELPING TO SPREAD HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO NE MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA CHANCES TO REMAIN LOW THIS
WEEKEND WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND NEED LIFT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
ABSENT ACROSS THE REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS WITH
DIFFLUENCE INCREASING AND AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.

TODAY...AS MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE INCREASES OVER WEST TEXAS AND
PRESSURE BEGIN TO LOWER LEESIDE TROUGHING TO STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
MEXICO PLATEAU. SOUTHEAST 925-850 FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE. AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
YESTERDAY TODAY WILL SEE A MORE TYPICAL SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER REGIME.
WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH INCREASING THE MIXING.
TEMPERATURES NOT ESPECIALLY WARM BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEY AND
RANCHLANDS. MODEL POP GUIDANCE IS BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE EAST BUT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW GRADE POPS
IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SEVERAL
SPOKES OF ENERGY SEEN OVER NW MEXICO ROTATING NE AROUND THE TROUGH.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN INCREASE IN POPS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS VERY
HIGH ON THE 12 HOUR POPS BUT CONSERVATIVE ON THE 6 HOUR. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE  PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST AND
LOWER GRADE RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST. VERY MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...INTERESTING DAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE EVENT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY OVERNIGHT
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS EXITING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN
THE MORNING. LEESIDE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND 700-850MB TEMPS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A STRONG CAP
DEVELOPING. DOWNSLOPING AND THE WARM TO MIX OUT THE SURFACE MOISTURE
SQUASHING ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WITH MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO HINTING AT THIS BUT
DECIDED TO GO HIGHER. MOST AREA WILL SEE LOW TO MID 80S WITH EVEN
THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACH MAKING IT A REALLY SUPER SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
SUPPORTED BY A NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH AND TO A LESSER EXTENT A
DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING ON MONDAY
WITH SPEEDS 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. WILL BE NOTICABLY COLDER THAN
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 30 DEGREES COLDER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. AT LEAST MODEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MARINE
AREAS WITH CHANCES WANING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON

ATTENTION TURNS TO CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TUESDAY AND INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE
REGION OF UPPER LIFT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF CLOSER IN
THE SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF BEING A TICK
SLOWER THAN GFS. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BOOST HIGHS
INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ON TAP FOR
THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY... MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL
TODAY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST. SCEC CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO SLOWLY RELAX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. A LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH POSSIBLE GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN HIGH TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AS A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH TUES NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW/TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  62  77  55 /  20  20  10  40
BROWNSVILLE          75  63  79  55 /  20  20  10  40
HARLINGEN            75  62  81  53 /  20  20  10  40
MCALLEN              76  62  83  53 /  20  30  10  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  60  83  53 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...59
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58



000
FXUS64 KAMA 310918
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS
FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WAS TOO MUCH OF A WARM NOSE
ACCORDING TO LAST NIGHT/S AMA SOUNDING TO GET MUCH FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THIS WARM NOSE WILL ONLY GET DEEPER AND WARMER
TODAY...SO HAVE SWITCHED ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
LIQUID. SOME SNOW MAY TRY TO MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION AS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY
THEN.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH
SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK UP ABOVE
NORMAL BY TUESDAY BEFORE GETTING KNOCKED DOWN AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEK FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE A LITTLE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRIES TO NUDGE IT/S WAY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                40  32  41  22  55 /  90  30  10   0   0
BEAVER OK                  44  32  39  17  53 /  90  60   5   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              45  31  40  21  57 /  30  30   5   0   0
BORGER TX                  45  36  44  24  56 /  80  40   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              44  33  42  25  59 /  60  30  10   0   0
CANYON TX                  42  34  43  23  55 /  90  30  10   0   0
CLARENDON TX               41  36  44  20  53 / 100  40  10   0   0
DALHART TX                 42  33  40  24  57 /  40  30   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  48  32  41  22  56 /  60  60   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                42  35  43  24  57 /  80  20  10   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  37  39  16  50 / 100  50   5   0   0
PAMPA TX                   40  33  39  20  52 / 100  40   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                43  37  44  20  48 / 100  40  10   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              44  38  47  22  50 / 100  40  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15




000
FXUS64 KEWX 310918
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LOWERING
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN 3RD OF THE CWA AND PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING FROM SW TO NE...WITH DEW POINTS MODIFYING BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WEST OF I-35. THE RAIN THEN EXPANDS
EAST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA
THIS EVENING...EXITING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF I-35 TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED WEAKER
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA...AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS AND SAN ANTONIO SUNDAY EVENING. LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
DRYING AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT EDGE. DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS TAKES PLACES MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY AND SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES NOW TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EWX CWA. STILL ROOM FOR
SIGNIFICANT ERROR THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH SYSTEMS THIS FAR
SOUTH COMING OUT OF MEXICO...THEREFORE NO HIGHER THAN 20-40 POPS
AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND CMC
TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  57  66  37  51 /  90  80  30  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  56  66  37  50 /  90  70  30  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  57  68  39  52 /  80  70  30  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  53  62  33  49 /  90  80  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  52  67  41  55 /  90  30  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  55  63  34  49 /  90  80  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  55  69  39  55 /  90  60  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  56  67  38  51 /  90  70  30  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  57  67  39  51 /  60  70  50  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  56  68  39  53 /  90  70  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  56  69  41  54 /  80  70  30  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KEWX 310918
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LOWERING
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN 3RD OF THE CWA AND PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING FROM SW TO NE...WITH DEW POINTS MODIFYING BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WEST OF I-35. THE RAIN THEN EXPANDS
EAST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA
THIS EVENING...EXITING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF I-35 TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED WEAKER
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA...AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS AND SAN ANTONIO SUNDAY EVENING. LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
DRYING AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT EDGE. DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS TAKES PLACES MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY AND SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES NOW TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EWX CWA. STILL ROOM FOR
SIGNIFICANT ERROR THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH SYSTEMS THIS FAR
SOUTH COMING OUT OF MEXICO...THEREFORE NO HIGHER THAN 20-40 POPS
AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND CMC
TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  57  66  37  51 /  90  80  30  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  56  66  37  50 /  90  70  30  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  57  68  39  52 /  80  70  30  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  53  62  33  49 /  90  80  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  52  67  41  55 /  90  30  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  55  63  34  49 /  90  80  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  55  69  39  55 /  90  60  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  56  67  38  51 /  90  70  30  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  57  67  39  51 /  60  70  50  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  56  68  39  53 /  90  70  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  56  69  41  54 /  80  70  30  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KAMA 310918
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS
FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WAS TOO MUCH OF A WARM NOSE
ACCORDING TO LAST NIGHT/S AMA SOUNDING TO GET MUCH FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THIS WARM NOSE WILL ONLY GET DEEPER AND WARMER
TODAY...SO HAVE SWITCHED ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
LIQUID. SOME SNOW MAY TRY TO MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION AS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY
THEN.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH
SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK UP ABOVE
NORMAL BY TUESDAY BEFORE GETTING KNOCKED DOWN AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEK FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE A LITTLE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRIES TO NUDGE IT/S WAY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                40  32  41  22  55 /  90  30  10   0   0
BEAVER OK                  44  32  39  17  53 /  90  60   5   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              45  31  40  21  57 /  30  30   5   0   0
BORGER TX                  45  36  44  24  56 /  80  40   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              44  33  42  25  59 /  60  30  10   0   0
CANYON TX                  42  34  43  23  55 /  90  30  10   0   0
CLARENDON TX               41  36  44  20  53 / 100  40  10   0   0
DALHART TX                 42  33  40  24  57 /  40  30   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  48  32  41  22  56 /  60  60   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                42  35  43  24  57 /  80  20  10   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  37  39  16  50 / 100  50   5   0   0
PAMPA TX                   40  33  39  20  52 / 100  40   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                43  37  44  20  48 / 100  40  10   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              44  38  47  22  50 / 100  40  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15




000
FXUS64 KEWX 310918
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LOWERING
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN 3RD OF THE CWA AND PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING FROM SW TO NE...WITH DEW POINTS MODIFYING BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WEST OF I-35. THE RAIN THEN EXPANDS
EAST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA
THIS EVENING...EXITING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF I-35 TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED WEAKER
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA...AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS AND SAN ANTONIO SUNDAY EVENING. LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
DRYING AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT EDGE. DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS TAKES PLACES MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY AND SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES NOW TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EWX CWA. STILL ROOM FOR
SIGNIFICANT ERROR THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH SYSTEMS THIS FAR
SOUTH COMING OUT OF MEXICO...THEREFORE NO HIGHER THAN 20-40 POPS
AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND CMC
TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  57  66  37  51 /  90  80  30  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  56  66  37  50 /  90  70  30  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  57  68  39  52 /  80  70  30  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  53  62  33  49 /  90  80  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  52  67  41  55 /  90  30  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  55  63  34  49 /  90  80  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  55  69  39  55 /  90  60  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  56  67  38  51 /  90  70  30  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  57  67  39  51 /  60  70  50  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  56  68  39  53 /  90  70  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  56  69  41  54 /  80  70  30  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KEWX 310918
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LOWERING
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN 3RD OF THE CWA AND PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING FROM SW TO NE...WITH DEW POINTS MODIFYING BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WEST OF I-35. THE RAIN THEN EXPANDS
EAST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA
THIS EVENING...EXITING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF I-35 TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED WEAKER
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA...AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS AND SAN ANTONIO SUNDAY EVENING. LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
DRYING AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT EDGE. DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS TAKES PLACES MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY AND SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES NOW TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EWX CWA. STILL ROOM FOR
SIGNIFICANT ERROR THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH SYSTEMS THIS FAR
SOUTH COMING OUT OF MEXICO...THEREFORE NO HIGHER THAN 20-40 POPS
AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND CMC
TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  57  66  37  51 /  90  80  30  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  56  66  37  50 /  90  70  30  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  57  68  39  52 /  80  70  30  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  53  62  33  49 /  90  80  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  52  67  41  55 /  90  30  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  55  63  34  49 /  90  80  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  55  69  39  55 /  90  60  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  56  67  38  51 /  90  70  30  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  57  67  39  51 /  60  70  50  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  56  68  39  53 /  90  70  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  56  69  41  54 /  80  70  30  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KAMA 310918
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS
FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WAS TOO MUCH OF A WARM NOSE
ACCORDING TO LAST NIGHT/S AMA SOUNDING TO GET MUCH FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THIS WARM NOSE WILL ONLY GET DEEPER AND WARMER
TODAY...SO HAVE SWITCHED ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
LIQUID. SOME SNOW MAY TRY TO MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION AS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY
THEN.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH
SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK UP ABOVE
NORMAL BY TUESDAY BEFORE GETTING KNOCKED DOWN AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEK FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE A LITTLE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRIES TO NUDGE IT/S WAY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                40  32  41  22  55 /  90  30  10   0   0
BEAVER OK                  44  32  39  17  53 /  90  60   5   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              45  31  40  21  57 /  30  30   5   0   0
BORGER TX                  45  36  44  24  56 /  80  40   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              44  33  42  25  59 /  60  30  10   0   0
CANYON TX                  42  34  43  23  55 /  90  30  10   0   0
CLARENDON TX               41  36  44  20  53 / 100  40  10   0   0
DALHART TX                 42  33  40  24  57 /  40  30   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  48  32  41  22  56 /  60  60   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                42  35  43  24  57 /  80  20  10   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  37  39  16  50 / 100  50   5   0   0
PAMPA TX                   40  33  39  20  52 / 100  40   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                43  37  44  20  48 / 100  40  10   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              44  38  47  22  50 / 100  40  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15




000
FXUS64 KEWX 310918
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LOWERING
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN 3RD OF THE CWA AND PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING FROM SW TO NE...WITH DEW POINTS MODIFYING BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WEST OF I-35. THE RAIN THEN EXPANDS
EAST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA
THIS EVENING...EXITING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF I-35 TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED WEAKER
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA...AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS AND SAN ANTONIO SUNDAY EVENING. LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
DRYING AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT EDGE. DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS TAKES PLACES MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY AND SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES NOW TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EWX CWA. STILL ROOM FOR
SIGNIFICANT ERROR THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH SYSTEMS THIS FAR
SOUTH COMING OUT OF MEXICO...THEREFORE NO HIGHER THAN 20-40 POPS
AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND CMC
TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  57  66  37  51 /  90  80  30  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  56  66  37  50 /  90  70  30  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  57  68  39  52 /  80  70  30  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  53  62  33  49 /  90  80  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  52  67  41  55 /  90  30  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  55  63  34  49 /  90  80  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  55  69  39  55 /  90  60  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  56  67  38  51 /  90  70  30  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  57  67  39  51 /  60  70  50  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  56  68  39  53 /  90  70  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  56  69  41  54 /  80  70  30  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KEWX 310918
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING
ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING...WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WAS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH LOWERING
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN 3RD OF THE CWA AND PATCHY LIGHT
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING FROM SW TO NE...WITH DEW POINTS MODIFYING BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WEST OF I-35. THE RAIN THEN EXPANDS
EAST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP WILL SKIRT THROUGH THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA
THIS EVENING...EXITING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WEST OF I-35 TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED WEAKER
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN AREA...AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS AND SAN ANTONIO SUNDAY EVENING. LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW TURNS WEST WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
DRYING AND THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT EDGE. DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS TAKES PLACES MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL CUT OFF ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO TUESDAY AND SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES NOW TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EWX CWA. STILL ROOM FOR
SIGNIFICANT ERROR THIS FAR OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH SYSTEMS THIS FAR
SOUTH COMING OUT OF MEXICO...THEREFORE NO HIGHER THAN 20-40 POPS
AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND CMC
TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE SIDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER GFS SOLUTION.

JR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              61  57  66  37  51 /  90  80  30  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  63  56  66  37  50 /  90  70  30  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  57  68  39  52 /  80  70  30  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            58  53  62  33  49 /  90  80  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           60  52  67  41  55 /  90  30  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  55  63  34  49 /  90  80  40  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  55  69  39  55 /  90  60  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  56  67  38  51 /  90  70  30  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  57  67  39  51 /  60  70  50  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  56  68  39  53 /  90  70  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  56  69  41  54 /  80  70  30  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...03
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76





000
FXUS64 KAMA 310918
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
318 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS
FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WAS TOO MUCH OF A WARM NOSE
ACCORDING TO LAST NIGHT/S AMA SOUNDING TO GET MUCH FROZEN
PRECIPITATION. THIS WARM NOSE WILL ONLY GET DEEPER AND WARMER
TODAY...SO HAVE SWITCHED ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO
LIQUID. SOME SNOW MAY TRY TO MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION AS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY
THEN.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH
SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SO
EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK UP ABOVE
NORMAL BY TUESDAY BEFORE GETTING KNOCKED DOWN AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEK FRIDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE A LITTLE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST TRIES TO NUDGE IT/S WAY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                40  32  41  22  55 /  90  30  10   0   0
BEAVER OK                  44  32  39  17  53 /  90  60   5   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              45  31  40  21  57 /  30  30   5   0   0
BORGER TX                  45  36  44  24  56 /  80  40   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              44  33  42  25  59 /  60  30  10   0   0
CANYON TX                  42  34  43  23  55 /  90  30  10   0   0
CLARENDON TX               41  36  44  20  53 / 100  40  10   0   0
DALHART TX                 42  33  40  24  57 /  40  30   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  48  32  41  22  56 /  60  60   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                42  35  43  24  57 /  80  20  10   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  37  39  16  50 / 100  50   5   0   0
PAMPA TX                   40  33  39  20  52 / 100  40   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                43  37  44  20  48 / 100  40  10   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              44  38  47  22  50 / 100  40  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15





000
FXUS64 KFWD 310858
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
258 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AS I WRITE THIS AN AREA OF VIRGA SITS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. AN OCCASIONAL RAIN DROP MAY MAKE IT
TO THE SURFACE...BUT THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN
750 AND 950 MB. IT WILL TAKE A BIT OF PRECIP TO MOISTEN THIS
LAYER. AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH PRECIP ONSET TIMING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...I HAVE DECREASED QPF SINCE A GOOD PORTION OF OUR
EXPECTED RAIN WILL EVAPORATE AS IT MOISTENS THIS LAYER. MANY
AREAS WILL NOW STRUGGLE TO GET A QUARTER INCH OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A BIT MORE THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THE PRECIP SHOULD ALSO SHUT OFF FASTER SUNDAY AS THE ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ARE
NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX AFTER
NOON.

THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS COASTAL TX TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HAS ITS TRACK SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...AND LOW POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT NORTH AS WELL. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE TRACK SHIFT BACK SOUTH AGAIN
TOMORROW...THAT SEEMS TO BE THE PATTERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE QPF BEHIND THIS
FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO BELOW THE INVERSION AND THIS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL...WITH WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.  84


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1136 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CIGS NEAR FL150 AND LIGHT
E/SE WINDS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS DROPPING TO NEAR FL100 SATURDAY
MORNING. A VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 5-10
THOUSAND FT THROUGH MORNING WHICH MEANS PRECIPITATION ALOFT WILL
BE PRIMARILY VIRGA WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY BELOW FL100. ANY RAIN
DROPS THAT CAN SURVIVE THE TRIP THROUGH THE DRY AIR AND REACH THE
SURFACE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION
OPERATIONS...SO WILL LEAVE RAIN OUT OF TAFS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN DRY AIR IS FINALLY WORKED THROUGH AND COLUMN
SATURATES. JUST SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT TAF
SITES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS LIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FROPA SUNDAY
MORNING.

BELOW 5000 FT...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND BRING MVFR CIGS
INTO THE TAF SITES FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR EARLY TO MID SATURDAY EVENING WITH
THE AID OF RAINFALL AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SELY AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT BY
SUNSET...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE
LIFR CIGS MAY OCCUR AFTER 6Z...BUT THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN DFW EXTENDED TAF AT THIS TIME.

TR.92




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  48  57  29  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
WACO, TX              55  51  61  32  47 /  60  80  70  10   5
PARIS, TX             54  44  55  27  42 /  40  90  70  10   5
DENTON, TX            53  45  54  28  44 /  70  90  60  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  46  56  28  43 /  60  90  70  10   5
DALLAS, TX            55  48  58  30  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
TERRELL, TX           56  49  59  30  44 /  50  90  70  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         56  51  61  31  45 /  50  80  70  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            56  52  63  33  48 /  60  70  70  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  46  53  28  46 /  90  80  40  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 310858
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
258 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AS I WRITE THIS AN AREA OF VIRGA SITS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. AN OCCASIONAL RAIN DROP MAY MAKE IT
TO THE SURFACE...BUT THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN
750 AND 950 MB. IT WILL TAKE A BIT OF PRECIP TO MOISTEN THIS
LAYER. AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH PRECIP ONSET TIMING HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...I HAVE DECREASED QPF SINCE A GOOD PORTION OF OUR
EXPECTED RAIN WILL EVAPORATE AS IT MOISTENS THIS LAYER. MANY
AREAS WILL NOW STRUGGLE TO GET A QUARTER INCH OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A BIT MORE THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN COUNTIES.

THE PRECIP SHOULD ALSO SHUT OFF FASTER SUNDAY AS THE ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ARE
NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX AFTER
NOON.

THE UPPER LOW PROGGED TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS COASTAL TX TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HAS ITS TRACK SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...AND LOW POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT NORTH AS WELL. I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE TRACK SHIFT BACK SOUTH AGAIN
TOMORROW...THAT SEEMS TO BE THE PATTERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE QPF BEHIND THIS
FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO BELOW THE INVERSION AND THIS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE DRIZZLE RATHER THAN SHOWERS OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL...WITH WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.  84


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1136 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CIGS NEAR FL150 AND LIGHT
E/SE WINDS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS DROPPING TO NEAR FL100 SATURDAY
MORNING. A VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 5-10
THOUSAND FT THROUGH MORNING WHICH MEANS PRECIPITATION ALOFT WILL
BE PRIMARILY VIRGA WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY BELOW FL100. ANY RAIN
DROPS THAT CAN SURVIVE THE TRIP THROUGH THE DRY AIR AND REACH THE
SURFACE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION
OPERATIONS...SO WILL LEAVE RAIN OUT OF TAFS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN DRY AIR IS FINALLY WORKED THROUGH AND COLUMN
SATURATES. JUST SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT TAF
SITES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS LIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FROPA SUNDAY
MORNING.

BELOW 5000 FT...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND BRING MVFR CIGS
INTO THE TAF SITES FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR EARLY TO MID SATURDAY EVENING WITH
THE AID OF RAINFALL AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SELY AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT BY
SUNSET...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE
LIFR CIGS MAY OCCUR AFTER 6Z...BUT THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN DFW EXTENDED TAF AT THIS TIME.

TR.92




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  48  57  29  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
WACO, TX              55  51  61  32  47 /  60  80  70  10   5
PARIS, TX             54  44  55  27  42 /  40  90  70  10   5
DENTON, TX            53  45  54  28  44 /  70  90  60  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          55  46  56  28  43 /  60  90  70  10   5
DALLAS, TX            55  48  58  30  44 /  60  90  60  10   5
TERRELL, TX           56  49  59  30  44 /  50  90  70  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         56  51  61  31  45 /  50  80  70  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            56  52  63  33  48 /  60  70  70  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  46  53  28  46 /  90  80  40  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KLUB 310853
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 310853
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 310853
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 310853
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07




000
FXUS64 KBRO 310548 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1148 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 6 KFT AND HIGHER WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT. THIS LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OF
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW INCREASING
SE WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING LIGHT
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WITH MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW INCREASING SE WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

RELEVANT FEATURES...A COLD FRONT...LARGELY IN NAME ONLY...HAS
CLEARED THE REGION AND IS NOW SITUATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE. MODEST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE SETTLED IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. A RELATIVELY LARGE UPPER
TROUGH/EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH BROAD JET MOMENTUM MOSTLY TO ITS EAST HELPING TO SLOW THE
TROUGHS OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE
IS PRETTY DRY AND SUNSHINE IS WORKING THROUGH IN SEVERAL
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY.

TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS LOCAL INFLUENCE FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH INCREASES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE HAS
NOT REALLY DROPPED ALL THAT MUCH FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND DID INTRODUCE
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE RGV METRO AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO
THE SLACKENING WINDS UNDER BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
CREEP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE
INCREASES TO THE WEST BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW AND THE VALLEY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

SATURDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PICK UP QUICKLY IN THE
MORNING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BREEZY DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
PUSH INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING ON THOSE SOUTHEASTERLIES WHICH WILL KEEP A
RAIN CHANCE IN PLACE IN ZAPATA/JIM HOGG/BROOKS COUNTIES WHERE
PERSISTENT BROAD DIFFLUENCE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT. ALSO
CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT THE BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE METRO AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY OR SLIGHTLY WARMER...LOW TO MID
70S FOR HIGHS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...JET ACTIVITY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING UPPER LOW BECOMES STRONGER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SATURDAY AND WE WILL BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF A MODERATELY
DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT SPEED MAX DURING THE NIGHT.
THE MID LEVEL ASCENT FROM THIS SHOULD HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS GOING
AND HAVE RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PCT RANGE DURING THE NIGHT.
THE GFS/NAM BOTH APPEAR TO GENERATE SPURIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA IN THE
RAPID SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND THAT
CREATES MORE CONVECTION/QPF THAN THE LOW LEVELS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WOULD SUGGEST. THE ECMWF IS
PREFERRED HERE SHOWING SOME HIT OR MISS SHOWERS/LOW END QPF AROUND
0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES WHICH AGREES WITH THE EXISTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
/68-JGG/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY AS A 500MB
LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DEVELOP SUN NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT DIMINISH
MONDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTH. A
COASTAL LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
WILL MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE 500MB LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CA FINALLY
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT REACHES THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE AND
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY AND EXERCISE CAUTION OR POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LAGUNA MADRE TOMORROW WITH GENERALLY
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ON THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
LIKELY BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST LATE SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH POSSIBLE GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS
WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH
TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST AS A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUES NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TUESDAY WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AS
THE COASTAL LOW/TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  61  70  61  74 /  20  20  30  20
BROWNSVILLE          60  72  61  76 /  20  20  30  20
HARLINGEN            56  72  60  77 /  10  20  30  20
MCALLEN              59  73  60  79 /  10  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      60  74  59  79 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...AVIATION
59...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KBRO 310548 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1148 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 6 KFT AND HIGHER WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT. THIS LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OF
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW INCREASING
SE WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING LIGHT
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WITH MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW INCREASING SE WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

RELEVANT FEATURES...A COLD FRONT...LARGELY IN NAME ONLY...HAS
CLEARED THE REGION AND IS NOW SITUATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE. MODEST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE SETTLED IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. A RELATIVELY LARGE UPPER
TROUGH/EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH BROAD JET MOMENTUM MOSTLY TO ITS EAST HELPING TO SLOW THE
TROUGHS OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE
IS PRETTY DRY AND SUNSHINE IS WORKING THROUGH IN SEVERAL
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY.

TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS LOCAL INFLUENCE FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH INCREASES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE HAS
NOT REALLY DROPPED ALL THAT MUCH FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND DID INTRODUCE
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE RGV METRO AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO
THE SLACKENING WINDS UNDER BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
CREEP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE
INCREASES TO THE WEST BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW AND THE VALLEY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

SATURDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PICK UP QUICKLY IN THE
MORNING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BREEZY DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
PUSH INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING ON THOSE SOUTHEASTERLIES WHICH WILL KEEP A
RAIN CHANCE IN PLACE IN ZAPATA/JIM HOGG/BROOKS COUNTIES WHERE
PERSISTENT BROAD DIFFLUENCE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT. ALSO
CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT THE BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE METRO AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY OR SLIGHTLY WARMER...LOW TO MID
70S FOR HIGHS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...JET ACTIVITY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING UPPER LOW BECOMES STRONGER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SATURDAY AND WE WILL BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF A MODERATELY
DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT SPEED MAX DURING THE NIGHT.
THE MID LEVEL ASCENT FROM THIS SHOULD HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS GOING
AND HAVE RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PCT RANGE DURING THE NIGHT.
THE GFS/NAM BOTH APPEAR TO GENERATE SPURIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA IN THE
RAPID SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND THAT
CREATES MORE CONVECTION/QPF THAN THE LOW LEVELS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WOULD SUGGEST. THE ECMWF IS
PREFERRED HERE SHOWING SOME HIT OR MISS SHOWERS/LOW END QPF AROUND
0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES WHICH AGREES WITH THE EXISTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
/68-JGG/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY AS A 500MB
LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DEVELOP SUN NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT DIMINISH
MONDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTH. A
COASTAL LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
WILL MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE 500MB LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CA FINALLY
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT REACHES THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE AND
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY AND EXERCISE CAUTION OR POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LAGUNA MADRE TOMORROW WITH GENERALLY
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ON THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
LIKELY BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST LATE SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH POSSIBLE GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS
WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH
TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST AS A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUES NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TUESDAY WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AS
THE COASTAL LOW/TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  61  70  61  74 /  20  20  30  20
BROWNSVILLE          60  72  61  76 /  20  20  30  20
HARLINGEN            56  72  60  77 /  10  20  30  20
MCALLEN              59  73  60  79 /  10  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      60  74  59  79 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...AVIATION
59...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KBRO 310548 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1148 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 6 KFT AND HIGHER WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT. THIS LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OF
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW INCREASING
SE WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING LIGHT
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WITH MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW INCREASING SE WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

RELEVANT FEATURES...A COLD FRONT...LARGELY IN NAME ONLY...HAS
CLEARED THE REGION AND IS NOW SITUATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE. MODEST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE SETTLED IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. A RELATIVELY LARGE UPPER
TROUGH/EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH BROAD JET MOMENTUM MOSTLY TO ITS EAST HELPING TO SLOW THE
TROUGHS OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE
IS PRETTY DRY AND SUNSHINE IS WORKING THROUGH IN SEVERAL
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY.

TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS LOCAL INFLUENCE FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH INCREASES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE HAS
NOT REALLY DROPPED ALL THAT MUCH FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND DID INTRODUCE
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE RGV METRO AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO
THE SLACKENING WINDS UNDER BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
CREEP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE
INCREASES TO THE WEST BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW AND THE VALLEY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

SATURDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PICK UP QUICKLY IN THE
MORNING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BREEZY DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
PUSH INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING ON THOSE SOUTHEASTERLIES WHICH WILL KEEP A
RAIN CHANCE IN PLACE IN ZAPATA/JIM HOGG/BROOKS COUNTIES WHERE
PERSISTENT BROAD DIFFLUENCE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT. ALSO
CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT THE BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE METRO AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY OR SLIGHTLY WARMER...LOW TO MID
70S FOR HIGHS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...JET ACTIVITY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING UPPER LOW BECOMES STRONGER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SATURDAY AND WE WILL BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF A MODERATELY
DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT SPEED MAX DURING THE NIGHT.
THE MID LEVEL ASCENT FROM THIS SHOULD HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS GOING
AND HAVE RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PCT RANGE DURING THE NIGHT.
THE GFS/NAM BOTH APPEAR TO GENERATE SPURIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA IN THE
RAPID SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND THAT
CREATES MORE CONVECTION/QPF THAN THE LOW LEVELS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WOULD SUGGEST. THE ECMWF IS
PREFERRED HERE SHOWING SOME HIT OR MISS SHOWERS/LOW END QPF AROUND
0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES WHICH AGREES WITH THE EXISTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
/68-JGG/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY AS A 500MB
LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DEVELOP SUN NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT DIMINISH
MONDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTH. A
COASTAL LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
WILL MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE 500MB LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CA FINALLY
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT REACHES THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE AND
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY AND EXERCISE CAUTION OR POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LAGUNA MADRE TOMORROW WITH GENERALLY
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ON THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
LIKELY BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST LATE SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH POSSIBLE GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS
WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH
TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST AS A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUES NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TUESDAY WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AS
THE COASTAL LOW/TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  61  70  61  74 /  20  20  30  20
BROWNSVILLE          60  72  61  76 /  20  20  30  20
HARLINGEN            56  72  60  77 /  10  20  30  20
MCALLEN              59  73  60  79 /  10  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      60  74  59  79 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...AVIATION
59...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KBRO 310548 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1148 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 6 KFT AND HIGHER WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT. THIS LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OF
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW INCREASING
SE WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING LIGHT
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WITH MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW INCREASING SE WINDS WITH GUSTY WINDS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

RELEVANT FEATURES...A COLD FRONT...LARGELY IN NAME ONLY...HAS
CLEARED THE REGION AND IS NOW SITUATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE. MODEST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE SETTLED IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. A RELATIVELY LARGE UPPER
TROUGH/EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WITH BROAD JET MOMENTUM MOSTLY TO ITS EAST HELPING TO SLOW THE
TROUGHS OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE
IS PRETTY DRY AND SUNSHINE IS WORKING THROUGH IN SEVERAL
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VALLEY.

TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS LOCAL INFLUENCE FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH INCREASES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE HAS
NOT REALLY DROPPED ALL THAT MUCH FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND DID INTRODUCE
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE RGV METRO AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT DUE TO
THE SLACKENING WINDS UNDER BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
CREEP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE
INCREASES TO THE WEST BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW AND THE VALLEY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

SATURDAY...SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PICK UP QUICKLY IN THE
MORNING SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BREEZY DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
PUSH INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING ON THOSE SOUTHEASTERLIES WHICH WILL KEEP A
RAIN CHANCE IN PLACE IN ZAPATA/JIM HOGG/BROOKS COUNTIES WHERE
PERSISTENT BROAD DIFFLUENCE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT. ALSO
CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BUT THE BULK OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE METRO AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY OR SLIGHTLY WARMER...LOW TO MID
70S FOR HIGHS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...JET ACTIVITY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING UPPER LOW BECOMES STRONGER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SATURDAY AND WE WILL BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF A MODERATELY
DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100KT SPEED MAX DURING THE NIGHT.
THE MID LEVEL ASCENT FROM THIS SHOULD HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS GOING
AND HAVE RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 40 PCT RANGE DURING THE NIGHT.
THE GFS/NAM BOTH APPEAR TO GENERATE SPURIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA IN THE
RAPID SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND THAT
CREATES MORE CONVECTION/QPF THAN THE LOW LEVELS OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WOULD SUGGEST. THE ECMWF IS
PREFERRED HERE SHOWING SOME HIT OR MISS SHOWERS/LOW END QPF AROUND
0.05 TO 0.10 INCHES WHICH AGREES WITH THE EXISTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
/68-JGG/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY AS A 500MB
LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DEVELOP SUN NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT DIMINISH
MONDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTH. A
COASTAL LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
WILL MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUES NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE 500MB LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CA FINALLY
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX WEDNESDAY. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT REACHES THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE AND
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY AND EXERCISE CAUTION OR POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LAGUNA MADRE TOMORROW WITH GENERALLY
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ON THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS
LIKELY BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST LATE SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH POSSIBLE GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS
WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY AS A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH
TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST AS A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUES NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TUESDAY WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AS
THE COASTAL LOW/TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  61  70  61  74 /  20  20  30  20
BROWNSVILLE          60  72  61  76 /  20  20  30  20
HARLINGEN            56  72  60  77 /  10  20  30  20
MCALLEN              59  73  60  79 /  10  20  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      60  74  59  79 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67...AVIATION
59...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KFWD 310536
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1136 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CIGS NEAR FL150 AND LIGHT
E/SE WINDS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS DROPPING TO NEAR FL100 SATURDAY
MORNING. A VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 5-10
THOUSAND FT THROUGH MORNING WHICH MEANS PRECIPITATION ALOFT WILL
BE PRIMARILY VIRGA WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY BELOW FL100. ANY RAIN
DROPS THAT CAN SURVIVE THE TRIP THROUGH THE DRY AIR AND REACH THE
SURFACE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION
OPERATIONS...SO WILL LEAVE RAIN OUT OF TAFS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN DRY AIR IS FINALLY WORKED THROUGH AND COLUMN
SATURATES. JUST SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT TAF
SITES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS LIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FROPA SUNDAY
MORNING.

BELOW 5000 FT...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND BRING MVFR CIGS
INTO THE TAF SITES FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR EARLY TO MID SATURDAY EVENING WITH
THE AID OF RAINFALL AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SELY AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT BY
SUNSET...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE
LIFR CIGS MAY OCCUR AFTER 6Z...BUT THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN DFW EXTENDED TAF AT THIS TIME.

TR.92



&&

.UPDATE...
SPOTTY WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR ARE A RESULT PATCHY VIRGA TREKKING
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ENOUGH
MOISTENING TO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THE CURRENT POPS REFLECT THIS WELL. BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
A WET WEEKEND IS STILL IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT
A HEAVY WASHOUT - OR MAJOR LAKE LEVEL ASSISTANCE - IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER TEXAS TODAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...PLACING OUR REGION IN A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY INITIALLY BE RATHER DRY...BUT WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING STEADILY...EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...AND OVER MOST AREAS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HIGHER POPS WILL PERSIST IN THESE AREAS SAT
NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LINGERING IN THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST NEAR BAJA CA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE TO N TX AND EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH NO APPRECIABLE CAPE TO WORK WITH...DON`T EXPECT ANY THUNDER
ACCOMPANYING THE RAINFALL THROUGH SUN. QPF AMOUNTS IN FACT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN THE
LACK OF MAJOR CONVECTION OR STRONG LIFT. WOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO PICK UP LESS THAN 1 INCH WITH THIS PARTICULAR EVENT.

WE`LL SEE A RESPITE FROM ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK...BUT THE UPPER LOW (AND ASSOCIATED LIFT) TO OUR SW
WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT EASTWARD AND SKIRT CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUE
THROUGH WED. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DID HOLD ONTO SMALL
POPS FOR OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES TUE AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW RE-ASSERTING ITSELF...THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

66



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  52  48  54  29 /  10  60  90  60  10
WACO, TX              42  54  51  58  32 /  10  60  80  70  10
PARIS, TX             38  51  44  53  27 /  10  40  90  70  10
DENTON, TX            41  49  45  53  28 /  20  70  90  60  10
MCKINNEY, TX          39  51  46  54  28 /  10  60  90  60  10
DALLAS, TX            42  52  48  55  30 /  10  60  90  60  10
TERRELL, TX           40  54  49  57  30 /  10  50  90  70  10
CORSICANA, TX         41  55  51  60  31 /  10  50  80  70  10
TEMPLE, TX            42  55  52  60  33 /  10  60  70  70  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     41  49  46  52  28 /  20  90  80  50  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 310536
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1136 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CIGS NEAR FL150 AND LIGHT
E/SE WINDS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS DROPPING TO NEAR FL100 SATURDAY
MORNING. A VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 5-10
THOUSAND FT THROUGH MORNING WHICH MEANS PRECIPITATION ALOFT WILL
BE PRIMARILY VIRGA WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY BELOW FL100. ANY RAIN
DROPS THAT CAN SURVIVE THE TRIP THROUGH THE DRY AIR AND REACH THE
SURFACE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION
OPERATIONS...SO WILL LEAVE RAIN OUT OF TAFS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN DRY AIR IS FINALLY WORKED THROUGH AND COLUMN
SATURATES. JUST SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT TAF
SITES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS LIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FROPA SUNDAY
MORNING.

BELOW 5000 FT...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND BRING MVFR CIGS
INTO THE TAF SITES FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR EARLY TO MID SATURDAY EVENING WITH
THE AID OF RAINFALL AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SELY AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT BY
SUNSET...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE
LIFR CIGS MAY OCCUR AFTER 6Z...BUT THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN DFW EXTENDED TAF AT THIS TIME.

TR.92



&&

.UPDATE...
SPOTTY WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR ARE A RESULT PATCHY VIRGA TREKKING
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ENOUGH
MOISTENING TO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THE CURRENT POPS REFLECT THIS WELL. BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
A WET WEEKEND IS STILL IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT
A HEAVY WASHOUT - OR MAJOR LAKE LEVEL ASSISTANCE - IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER TEXAS TODAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...PLACING OUR REGION IN A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY INITIALLY BE RATHER DRY...BUT WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING STEADILY...EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...AND OVER MOST AREAS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HIGHER POPS WILL PERSIST IN THESE AREAS SAT
NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LINGERING IN THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST NEAR BAJA CA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE TO N TX AND EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH NO APPRECIABLE CAPE TO WORK WITH...DON`T EXPECT ANY THUNDER
ACCOMPANYING THE RAINFALL THROUGH SUN. QPF AMOUNTS IN FACT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN THE
LACK OF MAJOR CONVECTION OR STRONG LIFT. WOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO PICK UP LESS THAN 1 INCH WITH THIS PARTICULAR EVENT.

WE`LL SEE A RESPITE FROM ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK...BUT THE UPPER LOW (AND ASSOCIATED LIFT) TO OUR SW
WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT EASTWARD AND SKIRT CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUE
THROUGH WED. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DID HOLD ONTO SMALL
POPS FOR OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES TUE AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW RE-ASSERTING ITSELF...THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

66



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  52  48  54  29 /  10  60  90  60  10
WACO, TX              42  54  51  58  32 /  10  60  80  70  10
PARIS, TX             38  51  44  53  27 /  10  40  90  70  10
DENTON, TX            41  49  45  53  28 /  20  70  90  60  10
MCKINNEY, TX          39  51  46  54  28 /  10  60  90  60  10
DALLAS, TX            42  52  48  55  30 /  10  60  90  60  10
TERRELL, TX           40  54  49  57  30 /  10  50  90  70  10
CORSICANA, TX         41  55  51  60  31 /  10  50  80  70  10
TEMPLE, TX            42  55  52  60  33 /  10  60  70  70  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     41  49  46  52  28 /  20  90  80  50  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 310536
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1136 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CIGS NEAR FL150 AND LIGHT
E/SE WINDS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS DROPPING TO NEAR FL100 SATURDAY
MORNING. A VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 5-10
THOUSAND FT THROUGH MORNING WHICH MEANS PRECIPITATION ALOFT WILL
BE PRIMARILY VIRGA WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY BELOW FL100. ANY RAIN
DROPS THAT CAN SURVIVE THE TRIP THROUGH THE DRY AIR AND REACH THE
SURFACE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION
OPERATIONS...SO WILL LEAVE RAIN OUT OF TAFS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN DRY AIR IS FINALLY WORKED THROUGH AND COLUMN
SATURATES. JUST SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT TAF
SITES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS LIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FROPA SUNDAY
MORNING.

BELOW 5000 FT...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND BRING MVFR CIGS
INTO THE TAF SITES FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR EARLY TO MID SATURDAY EVENING WITH
THE AID OF RAINFALL AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SELY AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT BY
SUNSET...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE
LIFR CIGS MAY OCCUR AFTER 6Z...BUT THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN DFW EXTENDED TAF AT THIS TIME.

TR.92



&&

.UPDATE...
SPOTTY WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR ARE A RESULT PATCHY VIRGA TREKKING
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ENOUGH
MOISTENING TO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THE CURRENT POPS REFLECT THIS WELL. BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
A WET WEEKEND IS STILL IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT
A HEAVY WASHOUT - OR MAJOR LAKE LEVEL ASSISTANCE - IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER TEXAS TODAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...PLACING OUR REGION IN A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY INITIALLY BE RATHER DRY...BUT WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING STEADILY...EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...AND OVER MOST AREAS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HIGHER POPS WILL PERSIST IN THESE AREAS SAT
NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LINGERING IN THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST NEAR BAJA CA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE TO N TX AND EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH NO APPRECIABLE CAPE TO WORK WITH...DON`T EXPECT ANY THUNDER
ACCOMPANYING THE RAINFALL THROUGH SUN. QPF AMOUNTS IN FACT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN THE
LACK OF MAJOR CONVECTION OR STRONG LIFT. WOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO PICK UP LESS THAN 1 INCH WITH THIS PARTICULAR EVENT.

WE`LL SEE A RESPITE FROM ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK...BUT THE UPPER LOW (AND ASSOCIATED LIFT) TO OUR SW
WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT EASTWARD AND SKIRT CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUE
THROUGH WED. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DID HOLD ONTO SMALL
POPS FOR OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES TUE AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW RE-ASSERTING ITSELF...THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

66



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  52  48  54  29 /  10  60  90  60  10
WACO, TX              42  54  51  58  32 /  10  60  80  70  10
PARIS, TX             38  51  44  53  27 /  10  40  90  70  10
DENTON, TX            41  49  45  53  28 /  20  70  90  60  10
MCKINNEY, TX          39  51  46  54  28 /  10  60  90  60  10
DALLAS, TX            42  52  48  55  30 /  10  60  90  60  10
TERRELL, TX           40  54  49  57  30 /  10  50  90  70  10
CORSICANA, TX         41  55  51  60  31 /  10  50  80  70  10
TEMPLE, TX            42  55  52  60  33 /  10  60  70  70  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     41  49  46  52  28 /  20  90  80  50  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 310536
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1136 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CIGS NEAR FL150 AND LIGHT
E/SE WINDS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS DROPPING TO NEAR FL100 SATURDAY
MORNING. A VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 5-10
THOUSAND FT THROUGH MORNING WHICH MEANS PRECIPITATION ALOFT WILL
BE PRIMARILY VIRGA WITH TURBULENCE LIKELY BELOW FL100. ANY RAIN
DROPS THAT CAN SURVIVE THE TRIP THROUGH THE DRY AIR AND REACH THE
SURFACE WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN WITH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION
OPERATIONS...SO WILL LEAVE RAIN OUT OF TAFS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN DRY AIR IS FINALLY WORKED THROUGH AND COLUMN
SATURATES. JUST SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT TAF
SITES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS LIGHT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FROPA SUNDAY
MORNING.

BELOW 5000 FT...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND BRING MVFR CIGS
INTO THE TAF SITES FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR EARLY TO MID SATURDAY EVENING WITH
THE AID OF RAINFALL AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SELY AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT BY
SUNSET...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE
LIFR CIGS MAY OCCUR AFTER 6Z...BUT THIS POSSIBILITY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN DFW EXTENDED TAF AT THIS TIME.

TR.92



&&

.UPDATE...
SPOTTY WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR ARE A RESULT PATCHY VIRGA TREKKING
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ENOUGH
MOISTENING TO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THE CURRENT POPS REFLECT THIS WELL. BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
A WET WEEKEND IS STILL IN STORE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT
A HEAVY WASHOUT - OR MAJOR LAKE LEVEL ASSISTANCE - IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER TEXAS TODAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...PLACING OUR REGION IN A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY INITIALLY BE RATHER DRY...BUT WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING STEADILY...EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT...AND OVER MOST AREAS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO HIGHER POPS WILL PERSIST IN THESE AREAS SAT
NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LINGERING IN THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST NEAR BAJA CA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE TO N TX AND EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH NO APPRECIABLE CAPE TO WORK WITH...DON`T EXPECT ANY THUNDER
ACCOMPANYING THE RAINFALL THROUGH SUN. QPF AMOUNTS IN FACT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN THE
LACK OF MAJOR CONVECTION OR STRONG LIFT. WOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO PICK UP LESS THAN 1 INCH WITH THIS PARTICULAR EVENT.

WE`LL SEE A RESPITE FROM ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK...BUT THE UPPER LOW (AND ASSOCIATED LIFT) TO OUR SW
WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT EASTWARD AND SKIRT CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUE
THROUGH WED. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR
AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DID HOLD ONTO SMALL
POPS FOR OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES TUE AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW RE-ASSERTING ITSELF...THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE...WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

66



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  52  48  54  29 /  10  60  90  60  10
WACO, TX              42  54  51  58  32 /  10  60  80  70  10
PARIS, TX             38  51  44  53  27 /  10  40  90  70  10
DENTON, TX            41  49  45  53  28 /  20  70  90  60  10
MCKINNEY, TX          39  51  46  54  28 /  10  60  90  60  10
DALLAS, TX            42  52  48  55  30 /  10  60  90  60  10
TERRELL, TX           40  54  49  57  30 /  10  50  90  70  10
CORSICANA, TX         41  55  51  60  31 /  10  50  80  70  10
TEMPLE, TX            42  55  52  60  33 /  10  60  70  70  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     41  49  46  52  28 /  20  90  80  50  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KHGX 310531
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1131 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION...

&&

.AVIATIO