[top]
000
FXUS64 KBRO 201144
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
644 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE
THIS MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASING AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
MIXING OUT THE STRATUS. THE STRATUS COULD MIX OUT EARLIER THEN
EXPECTED WITH THE SURFACE INVERSION NARROW. SKIES COULD CLEAR
BEFORE 16Z IF SUFFICIENT MIXING TAKES PLACE. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE. WINDS DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET NEAR THE COAST AND A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET FARTHER WEST WHERE THE STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT PERSIST. STRATUS TO REFORM IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS FIRST AT KBRO AND THEN WORKING WEST AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TODAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM MID 80S ALONG
THE BEACHES...LOW TO MID 90S IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. PATCHY HAZE AND SMOKE
FROM THE AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN MEXICO POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AGAIN TODAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A 500 MB SHORT WAVE
MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX TUES NIGHT
AND WED. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MAY INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD CONV TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR THESE PERIODS. AFTER THIS SHORT WAVE EXITS
THE REGION TO THE EAST 500 MB RIDGING WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTH TX AS
ANOTHER LARGE 500 MB CLOSED LOW BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. THIS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES AND MEXICO THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
PRETTY ELEVATED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SO THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.
THE ECMWF GUIDANCE TRIES TO ADVECT SOME BETTER MOISTURE VALUES UP
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE 700 MB RIDGE AXIS WITH THE BEST VALUES
CONCENTRATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND WEST AND CENTRAL TX
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO REFLECTS THIS GENERAL TREND BUT
DOES NOT SHOW AS STRONG OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. SO SOME DIURNAL AND
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN CONV CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THIS TREND TO INCLUDE ANY BETTER
POPS OUT WEST AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SILENT 10 POPS FOR NOW.
AS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH DAY 7. RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT WITH THE MEX
MOS TEMPS AND POPS ARE PRETTY STABLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND THE
ECMWF TEMPS AND POPS ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MEX GUIDANCE. SO WILL
STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NUMBERS THROUGH SUNDAY.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONGER TERM FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE
AVERAGE TODAY.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 17 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 19 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER TIGHT TODAY WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAY WATER.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE FOR WINDS.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ON THE GULF
WATERS TODAY. THE WIND FETCH AND LONG DURATION WILL ALLOW BUILDING
SEAS AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 7 FEET AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR EITHER THE LAGUNA MADRE
OR GULF WATERS FOR TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MODERATE PGF WILL PREVAIL LATER
THIS WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND AFTERWARDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 78 86 77 / 0 0 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 91 78 90 76 / 0 0 10 10
HARLINGEN 94 77 93 77 / 0 0 10 10
MCALLEN 96 77 95 77 / 0 0 10 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 98 77 99 76 / 0 0 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 75 85 75 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
59/67
[top]
000
FXUS64 KLUB 201139
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
639 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KLBB WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A
DRY FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD KCDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH ABOVE 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS. FRONT WILL IMPACT KLBB THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS
DEVELOP AROUND FL150 AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH IF ANY HEADWAY TODAY. THE FIRST IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...WHICH WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE BIG
COUNTRY...ALLOWING THE DRYLINE TO MIX QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS WILL BACK
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP MIXING
TAKES PLACE AND A DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
ANOTHER TOASTY DAY IS THUS ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 100 SOUTHEAST. ELEVATED TO
BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
THE SECOND DISTURBANCE INDUCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHERLY AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
WARRANT MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME VIRGA SHOWERS DEVELOP AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BRING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS OR HEAT BURSTS TONIGHT INTO MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION FOR THIS WEEK THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DETAILS WHICH DESERVE SOME MENTION. MAIN STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A
DRAGGING TROUGH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHICH SHOULD PUSH EAST OFF
THE AREA BY 00Z. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW COMES ASHORE. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE THEN KEEPS THE ENERGY BLOCKED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN STATES
AND YIELDS PROTRACTED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWFA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY THOUGH ITS EFFECTS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS EARLIER
PROGS INDICATED. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THOUGH WHILE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION...THERE WILL EXISTS FOR A FEW HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. THAT
SAID...PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS FOR EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE FCST. MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW
LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVING THE DRYLINE
ALL THE WAY TO NEW MEXICO. ONCE AGAIN...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. BY THURSDAY...DRYLINE
PROGRESSION WILL BE DAMPENED THUS REMAINING NEAR THE STATE LINE
WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH PW UP IN THE
25MM RANGE WE COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND ON POPS FOR THU/FRI AND EVEN INTO
SATURDAY THOUGH WE MAY SEE STORMS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER...AS TIME PROGRESSES...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE STORMS
BEGIN TO FIRE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH
COULD MOVE INTO THE WEST EACH AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CONCERN WEST OF A VIGO PARK
TO LITTLEFIELD LINE. THIS IS WHERE WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST AT AROUND
20 MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AREAWIDE. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT GIVEN THE
MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM GUTHRIE TO JUSTICEBURG AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THE LLJ WILL MOVE EAST AND
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND THE EXTRA
DISTANCE FOR HIGHER MOMENTUM TO MIX TO THE SURFACE OFF THE
CAPROCK...WILL LEAVE THIS AREA OUT OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS TODAY.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE TX/NM STATE LINE COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 84 49 77 54 90 / 0 10 10 10 0
TULIA 88 52 80 55 91 / 0 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 90 54 81 58 91 / 0 10 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 89 56 83 59 91 / 0 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 92 56 83 60 92 / 0 10 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 89 58 84 58 92 / 0 10 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 91 58 84 59 92 / 0 10 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 97 57 86 58 91 / 0 10 10 10 10
SPUR 96 58 87 60 94 / 0 10 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 101 62 89 63 97 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
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000
FXUS64 KEWX 201136
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
636 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
BKN DECK OF IFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPACT THE I-35 TERMINALS AND
MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z WHILE DRT AND AREAS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. TAFS ACCOUNT
FOR SOME PROLONGED CIGS OVER YESTERDAY AS MID LEVEL WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW FOR A DEEPER MOIST LAYER. THE DRY-LINE
COULD BECOME ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION...BUT IS FORECAST BY HI-RES
MODELS TO TRIGGER STORMS MAINLY EAST OF DRT AND WELL TO THE WEST OF
I-35. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW
HOURS OF IFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SUBSIDENT WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL KEEP GULF MOISTURE CAPPED TODAY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN LIFTING BY LATE MORNING WITH DIURNAL HEATING BECOMING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AREA-WIDE. DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN SECTIONS
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS AGAIN
NEAR THE CENTURY MARK. THE CONTINUED GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AS WELL AS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE LOWER 90S WILL PREVAIL. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CAP WILL KEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING BUT
FURTHER NORTH OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...LOWERED HEIGHTS FROM SLIGHT
COOLING ALOFT AND A DRY LINE FOCUS OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SPUR DEVELOPMENT WITH THE UPPER WINDS BRINGING POTENTIAL
STORMS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON
PROGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS IN THE HILL COUNTRY SHOW CAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG
WITH VERY LITTLE CAP. SUBSEQUENTLY WE WILL MENTION A LOW CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW
MEXICO WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT WHICH MAY AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF LATE EVENING TO EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SLIDING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHWEST CWA LATE
IN THE DAY. VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
(PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATED 4000 J/KG. CAPES) SO CAN CERTAINLY SEE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY BY LATE IN THE DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS DISTURBANCES PUSH EAST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY RANGING
FROM NEAR 90 OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN PORTIONS TO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS. AS RIDGING
DRIES THE AIR-MASS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS...SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S HILL COUNTRY...NEAR 70 ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND GULF MOISTURE FOR OUR REGION. LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS WILL BE THE
PATTERN. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S HILL COUNTRY...UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 I-35 CORRIDOR TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 HILL COUNTRY...LOW 90S I-35 CORRIDOR AND MID TO UPPER
90S ELSEWHERE. THERE MAY BE A FEW SEA BREEZE TYPE SHOWERS WHICH
MAY MOVE NORTH INTO OUR EASTERN SECTIONS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT WILL NOW GO WITH SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF ENOUGH COASTAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. GFS MODEL
WANTS TO CONTINUE BUILDING THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS
TEXAS NEXT SUNDAY WITH A CONTINUED WARM...DRY WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 72 93 72 92 / - - 20 40 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 71 91 71 91 / - - 20 40 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 93 71 92 / - - 20 40 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 69 90 68 90 / 20 20 20 40 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 74 99 74 98 / - 20 10 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 89 70 89 / - 10 20 40 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 72 96 71 95 / - 10 10 30 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 90 72 90 / - - 20 40 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 75 91 75 90 / - 10 20 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 73 93 72 92 / - - 20 40 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 73 93 72 91 / - - 10 30 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...02
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
[top]
000
FXUS64 KAMA 201133 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THE ONLY CAVEAT IS IF TSRA THAT DEVELOPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO
AND NM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES...INCLUDING KDHT
AND KGUY...AFTER 21Z. AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY...AND IF ANY
STORMS ARE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AT BEST. THUS WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. HOWEVER IF ANY TSRA
DOES MOVE INTO THE REGION...EXPECT VRB AND GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON
THURSDAY TO ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS
INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO BY LATE SATURDAY. HAVE RETAINED CURRENT POPS
STRUCTURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO OR NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO STATE LINE WILL
HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FOUR COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY AS 20 FOOT WINDS
APPROACH 15 TO 20 MPH AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS EITHER THE 20 FOOT WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/11
[top]
000
FXUS64 KSJT 201129
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
629 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
..DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHES OF MVFR STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED SOUTH OF JUNCTION AND NEAR
BRADY EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT KJCT
UNTIL 15Z. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 KT WAS INDICATED AT THE
SAN ANGELO AND DYESS RADARS AT 4000 MSL 11Z...AND EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS 14-15Z AS MORNING INVERSTION BREAKS. PATCHY MVFR STRATUS
POSSIBLE TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND BRADY.
HAVE MENTION OF MVFR CIGS AT KJCT AFTER 9Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE WILL AGAIN MOVE EAST OF A SONORA...SAN ANGELO...ABILENE...
THROCKMORTON LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
WILL AGAIN EXIST EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WHERE GFS AND NAM GFS
MODELS GIVE SB CAPES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG...ALONG WITH 0 TO 6 KM
BULK SHEARS OF 35 TO 40 KTS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...CAN EXPECT
THEM TO BECOME SEVERE. CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. WHILE
STORMS DID NOT DEVELOP YESTERDAY...THERE WAS A TCU FIELD IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. WENT CLOSE TO GFS AND NAM MOS TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHICH ARE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES.
04
LONG TERM...
POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
EARLY TUESDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL /UPPER 80S/ BUT WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEEP MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WILL RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION
OF THE AIRMASS. GFS/NAM MLCAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN
3500-4000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 40 KTS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION IS HIGH. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR
THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL YIELD WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PARAMETERS WHICH WILL LIMIT /BUT NOT PRECLUDE/ THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. EXPECT HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS /POTENTIALLY LARGER
THAN GOLF BALLS/ WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...GENERALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM SONORA...TO EDEN...TO BROWNWOOD. STORMS WILL
PERSIST IN THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD TREND DOWN IN INTENSITY
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE AREA AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE HIGH GIVEN THE
LACK OF A DISCERNIBLE DRYLINE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE ARE
LACKING A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM. THAT SAID...I WOULD NOT
RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING SIMPLY DUE TO STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING. COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL PRECLUDE MENTION
OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAVE BEEN A FORECAST HEADACHE OWING TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER WEST TX. I THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE WHICH WOULD LIMIT ITS POTENTIAL TO
REACH OUR WESTERN BOUNDARY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ON FRIDAY...THE
TROUGH SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST SO I HAVE RETAINED /AND
EXPANDED/ THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL OF THAT
SAID...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME WHEN DEALING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT DAYS 4-5. IF ANY WAVES DO EJECT ACROSS THE
REGION AND ARE COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING...THIS WOULD LEND
TOWARD A MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AND COULD YIELD AN MCS
OR TWO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO
THE 90S BOTH DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE KEYING ON THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD DIRECT MOST OF THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND WOULD PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CAPPING INVERSION VIA NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION
OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. I HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 90S. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
OF A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPING BUT MY GUT SAYS
THAT WE COULD BE APPROACHING 100 DEGREES SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.
WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYLINE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF A SONORA...SAN ANGELO...
ABILENE...THROCKMORTON LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE BIG
COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY...AS RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS COMBINE WITH SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.
04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 99 68 88 65 94 / 5 20 20 20 10
SAN ANGELO 101 70 93 66 96 / 5 10 20 20 10
JUNCTION 96 70 94 69 93 / 20 20 30 40 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/04
[top]
000
FXUS64 KMAF 201127
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MSTR HAS RETURNED A LITTLE FARTHER W THAN THOUGHT AND
SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW LOW CLOUDS ABOUT 60NM S OF MAF. STILL NOT
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MAF OR FST AREAS. WINDS OF
15-20KTS STILL LOOK LIKELY TODAY BY 15Z-18Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO AREA EARLY TUE AM AROUND 08Z-10Z BUT LOOKS DRY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO HOT WX BY THE WEEKEND BUT ACTUALLY
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER LOOKING TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...
SUNDAY CAME IN AT THE MID 90S EVEN WITH UNLIMITED SUNSHINE AND A
WEST WIND. THIS WAS DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
MOVED EAST THUS NOT MIXING DOWN AS WARM OF AIR. BASED ON EXPECTED
850 TEMPS TODAY NEAR 28C/82F EXPECT HIGHS TODAY AROUND 98 AT
MAF/ODO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN MAF AND
LBB... ETA SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THIS LOCATION AT 06Z THAT DEVELOPS
INTO A SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS DURING THE DAY. THIS LOW DEVELOPS A
WEAK FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. A SOUTH WIND AND WARMER
TEMPS RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WIND TODAY IN THE GUADALUPE MTNS... BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WIND SPEEDS.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE RAIN THIS WEEK OVER PARTS OF W TX AND SE NM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOW POPS BEGINNING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QPF WITH THIS
EVENT AS REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFT UP FROM THE PACIFIC.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS THURSDAY
NIGHT COMING OUT OF NM INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN... IF SO SOME
LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. EXPECT LOCATION OF RAIN WILL
CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GDP MTNS TODAY WHERE
20KTS 85H-7H WINDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...
ESPECIALLY IN TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. RH/S WILL AGAIN BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL WITH BROAD THERMAL RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS REALLY DONE SOME DAMAGE TO FUEL MSTR AS SEEN IN TFS FUEL
DRYNESS NOW DEPICTING 90TH PERCENTILE DRYNESS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KFWD 201126
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE INDICATES STRATUS IS A BIT PATCHY THIS MORNING...SO
CEILINGS MAY VARY. FEEL THAT MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY UNTIL
15Z/10AM WHEN STRONG WINDS AND HEATING SHOULD MIX IT OUT. STRATUS
SHOULD RETURN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO ALL TAF SITES.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A MIXED BAG FOR TSRA ACTIVITY AT METROPLEX THIS
EVENING. TTU WRF...GFS...RUC...AND NAM DISSIPATE THIS EVENING/S
CONVECTION WEST OF TAF SITES...WHILE WRF ARW...4KM WRF...AND EURO
BRING CONVECTION INTO METROPLEX AFTER 00Z. WILL STICK WITH
CURRENT VCTS 00Z-04Z AS BEST COMPROMISE FOR NOW. TSRA THREAT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AS FRONT PUSHES TO COUNTIES NORTHWEST OF
METROPLEX. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIFFERS FOR METROPLEX...THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON STORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
TAF SITES AND WEST DEPARTURES WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED.
WACO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT...AND THE BETTER
THREAT FOR TSRA WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE.
84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY EVENING/S SEVERE WEATHER ROTATES
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS...WITH A DRY LINE SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM BETWEEN
CHILDRESS AND VERNON TO NEAR FORT STOCKTON. THE DRY LINE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL
THEN...WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS SOUTH WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH CONTINUE.
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING...AIDED BY A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE
PROJECTED TO CROSS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER WHERE INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST
TO BE HIGHEST. IN FACT SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA INDICATES
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OKLAHOMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST
TO NEAR THE WESTERN CWA BORDER...INITIATING STORMS BY 00Z/7 PM IF
NOT BEFORE. A NARROW AXIS OF MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN-MOST REGIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. THIS AREA IS CAPTURED WELL BY SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
CELLS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...PERHAPS
TAKING ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY MOTION AS MID LEVEL WINDS VEER LATE
IN THE EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN
ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT OVER THE
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY ROBUST ON QPF
OUTPUT. THE STRONG LLJ WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING MCS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY AS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. MESOSCALE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE
FROM THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH PUSH TO PENETRATE
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS FOCUS
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THOUGH THE DAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE STEADILY
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...EXITING
THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL NOT
BE AS HIGH AS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD AS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TROUGH HEADS FOR THE THE EASTERN STATES. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
POPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION FOR BOTH LATE
THURSDAY AND LATE FRIDAY...WHERE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...WHICH COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE GENERALLY ABOVE-
NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 72 87 68 89 / 20 40 50 50 10
WACO, TX 91 72 89 68 88 / 10 20 40 60 10
PARIS, TX 89 70 82 65 85 / 10 60 50 50 10
DENTON, TX 92 71 86 64 89 / 30 40 40 40 10
MCKINNEY, TX 90 71 85 64 88 / 20 40 50 50 10
DALLAS, TX 91 72 87 69 89 / 20 40 50 50 10
TERRELL, TX 90 72 86 67 87 / 10 30 50 60 10
CORSICANA, TX 91 72 87 69 87 / 10 20 40 60 10
TEMPLE, TX 91 72 88 69 87 / 10 20 40 60 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 69 87 65 89 / 30 30 40 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KCRP 201106
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
606 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAF`S.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/STRATUS WILL IMPROVE BECOMING VFR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. HAZY CONDITIONS MAY LOWER VSBYS TO AROUND 5SM THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDVLP TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A PERSISTENT WX PATTERN OF
VERY WARM TEMPS AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH TUE. A TROF AXIS IS PROGD TO ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW
LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH TUE. THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS W TX TUE MORNING AND BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND S
TX BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONG
LLJ ACROSS S TX WHICH IN TURN WILL MIX DURING EACH DAY LEADING TO
THE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO MIX OUT THE OVERNIGHT
STRATUS DECK BY MID TO LATE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TUE MORNING. HAZY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DUE TO THE ONGOING FIRES IN THE
YUCATAN. HOWEVER...VSBY`S SHOULD BE GENERALLY ABV 7SM DURING THE DAY
AND AOA 5SM DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS. AS FOR PRECIP CHCS...AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY RAIN TODAY. AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE...THE CHC INCREASES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED ALONG WITH A STRONG CAP. THEREFORE KEPT SILENT 10 POPS FOR
NOW FOR TONIGHT AND TUE...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT CONVECTION
MAKING INTO THE NW CWA BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL CHCS ARE
BETTER TUE NIGHT.
MARINE...A MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
TODAY THROUGH TUE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S. AND
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE. WINDS MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND PORT ARANSAS. FOR NOW KEPT WINDS AT
CAUTION BUT LATER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED IF WINDS REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR 2 HRS OR MORE. HAZY CONDITIONS DUE FIRES IN THE YUCATAN
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO AROUND 4-5SM.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN
IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM DUE TO FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH CAP BECOMING WEAKER THAN IT HAS
BEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA BUT IF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DOES DEVELOP...THEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW END POPS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LINGERING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
EXIST WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS AS TAIL END OF
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK
INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES. LITTLE VARIATION IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL OCCUR
WITH UPPER 90S OUT WEST TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 77 90 75 92 / 10 10 10 20 10
VICTORIA 90 75 90 74 89 / 10 10 10 20 20
LAREDO 102 77 100 76 99 / 10 10 10 20 10
ALICE 95 75 93 74 94 / 10 10 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 83 77 84 76 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 100 75 99 73 97 / 10 10 10 30 10
KINGSVILLE 92 77 90 75 92 / 10 10 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 84 76 84 75 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KCRP 201027
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
527 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A PERSISTENT WX PATTERN OF
VERY WARM TEMPS AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH TUE. A TROF AXIS IS PROGD TO ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW
LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH TUE. THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS W TX TUE MORNING AND BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND S
TX BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE APPROACHING TROF WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONG
LLJ ACROSS S TX WHICH IN TURN WILL MIX DURING EACH DAY LEADING TO
THE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO MIX OUT THE OVERNIGHT
STRATUS DECK BY MID TO LATE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TUE MORNING. HAZY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DUE TO THE ONGOING FIRES IN THE
YUCATAN. HOWEVER...VSBY`S SHOULD BE GENERALLY ABV 7SM DURING THE DAY
AND AOA 5SM DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS. AS FOR PRECIP CHCS...AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY RAIN TODAY. AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE...THE CHC INCREASES SOMEWHAT...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED ALONG WITH A STRONG CAP. THEREFORE KEPT SILENT 10 POPS FOR
NOW FOR TONIGHT AND TUE...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT CONVECTION
MAKING INTO THE NW CWA BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL CHCS ARE
BETTER TUE NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...A MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
TODAY THROUGH TUE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S. AND
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS W TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE. WINDS MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND PORT ARANSAS. FOR NOW KEPT WINDS AT
CAUTION BUT LATER UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED IF WINDS REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR 2 HRS OR MORE. HAZY CONDITIONS DUE FIRES IN THE YUCATAN
MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO AROUND 4-5SM.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN
IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM DUE TO FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH CAP BECOMING WEAKER THAN IT HAS
BEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA BUT IF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DOES DEVELOP...THEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW END POPS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LINGERING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
EXIST WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS AS TAIL END OF
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK
INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES. LITTLE VARIATION IN AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL OCCUR
WITH UPPER 90S OUT WEST TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 77 90 75 92 / 10 10 10 20 10
VICTORIA 90 75 90 74 89 / 10 10 10 20 20
LAREDO 102 77 100 76 99 / 10 10 10 20 10
ALICE 95 75 93 74 94 / 10 10 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 83 77 84 76 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 100 75 99 73 97 / 10 10 10 30 10
KINGSVILLE 92 77 90 75 92 / 10 10 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 84 76 84 75 84 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM
[top]
000
FXUS64 KHGX 200945
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
445 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS AGAIN PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS LITTLE
HAS CHANGED SYNOPTICALLY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR THE TEXAS- OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF BRISK WINDS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
AGAIN BE LIMITED AS A STOUT CAP WILL BE PRESENT AROUND 850MB.
AMDAR SOUNDING FOR KHOU REVEALED 800MB TEMPERATURES OF 20C.
ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM
NEW MEXICO. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES SHORTWAVES WILL
RIPPLE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND BEGIN TO ERODE THE CAP
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE CAP WILL PROBABLY WIN
OUT SOUTH OF IH-10. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS POSITIVE VORTICITY MOVES
OVERHEAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE NORTH OF IH-10 WITH A
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BREAK THE CAP AT KCLL WHILE HOLDING ON TO IT
AT KIAH AND OTHER SOUTHWARD SITES. AT KCLL CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND
2500 J/KG WITH LI`S OF -8. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HOLDS ONTO
THE CAP ACROSS THE AREA. HAIL AND WIND LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THIS EVENT IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA AND OFF
TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE HOT AND HUMID. 23
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS A BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY AND WILL PUT UP A SCEC
FOR TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 12-18 KNOTS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE RANGE OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SUBTROPICAL JET
TRANSITS THE STATE. SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES BEYOND WEDNESDAY THOUGH
LIGHTER AND MAY EVEN BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT SATURDAY WITH
RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT/BKN MVFR DECK 17-2700 WHICH IS A FEW HUNDRED FEET HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY. FAR MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE GULF
THIS MORNING AND LOOKING AT ACARS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS AM EXPECTING
THE MVFR DECK TO BREAK UP AROUND 15Z BECOMING FEW/SCT AND BREEZY
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. MVFR DECK REDEVELOPS BETWEEN 00-04Z
COASTAL AREAS FIRST AND EXPANDING NORTH AGAIN.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 73 90 71 88 / 10 10 30 40 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 75 90 73 88 / 10 10 20 30 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 73 80 74 81 / 10 10 10 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...45
000
FXUS64 KLUB 200915
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
415 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH IF ANY HEADWAY TODAY. THE FIRST IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...WHICH WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE BIG
COUNTRY...ALLOWING THE DRYLINE TO MIX QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS WILL BACK
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP MIXING
TAKES PLACE AND A DRY AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
ANOTHER TOASTY DAY IS THUS ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 100 SOUTHEAST. ELEVATED TO
BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
THE SECOND DISTURBANCE INDUCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL
IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHERLY AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
WARRANT MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME VIRGA SHOWERS DEVELOP AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BRING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS OR HEAT BURSTS TONIGHT INTO MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION FOR THIS WEEK THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DETAILS WHICH DESERVE SOME MENTION. MAIN STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A
DRAGGING TROUGH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHICH SHOULD PUSH EAST OFF
THE AREA BY 00Z. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
STATES AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW COMES ASHORE. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE THEN KEEPS THE ENERGY BLOCKED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN STATES
AND YIELDS PROTRACTED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWFA BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY THOUGH ITS EFFECTS ARE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS EARLIER
PROGS INDICATED. RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
THOUGH WHILE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE
REGION...THERE WILL EXISTS FOR A FEW HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. THAT
SAID...PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS FOR EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE FCST. MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW
LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVING THE DRYLINE
ALL THE WAY TO NEW MEXICO. ONCE AGAIN...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME
HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. BY THURSDAY...DRYLINE
PROGRESSION WILL BE DAMPENED THUS REMAINING NEAR THE STATE LINE
WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH PW UP IN THE
25MM RANGE WE COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE UPWARD TREND ON POPS FOR THU/FRI AND EVEN INTO
SATURDAY THOUGH WE MAY SEE STORMS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER...AS TIME PROGRESSES...WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE STORMS
BEGIN TO FIRE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH
COULD MOVE INTO THE WEST EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CONCERN WEST OF A VIGO PARK
TO LITTLEFIELD LINE. THIS IS WHERE WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST AT AROUND
20 MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AREAWIDE. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT GIVEN THE
MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM GUTHRIE TO JUSTICEBURG AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THE LLJ WILL MOVE EAST AND
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND THE EXTRA
DISTANCE FOR HIGHER MOMENTUM TO MIX TO THE SURFACE OFF THE
CAPROCK...WILL LEAVE THIS AREA OUT OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS TODAY.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE TX/NM STATE LINE COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 84 49 77 54 90 / 0 10 10 10 0
TULIA 88 52 80 55 91 / 0 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 90 54 81 58 91 / 0 10 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 89 56 83 59 91 / 0 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 92 56 83 60 92 / 0 10 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 89 58 84 58 92 / 0 10 10 0 0
BROWNFIELD 91 58 84 59 92 / 0 10 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 97 57 86 58 91 / 0 10 10 10 10
SPUR 96 58 87 60 94 / 0 10 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 101 62 89 63 97 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/26
000
FXUS64 KBRO 200909
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
409 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK 500 MB RIDGING TODAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MORNING STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM MID 80S ALONG
THE BEACHES...LOW TO MID 90S IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. PATCHY HAZE AND SMOKE
FROM THE AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN MEXICO POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AGAIN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A 500 MB SHORT WAVE
MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX TUES NIGHT
AND WED. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MAY INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD CONV TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WILL MAINTAIN
SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR THESE PERIODS. AFTER THIS SHORT WAVE EXITS
THE REGION TO THE EAST 500 MB RIDGING WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTH TX AS
ANOTHER LARGE 500 MB CLOSED LOW BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. THIS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES AND MEXICO THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
PRETTY ELEVATED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SO THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.
THE ECMWF GUIDANCE TRIES TO ADVECT SOME BETTER MOISTURE VALUES UP
AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE 700 MB RIDGE AXIS WITH THE BEST VALUES
CONCENTRATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND WEST AND CENTRAL TX
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO REFLECTS THIS GENERAL TREND BUT
DOES NOT SHOW AS STRONG OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. SO SOME DIURNAL AND
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN CONV CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THIS TREND TO INCLUDE ANY BETTER
POPS OUT WEST AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SILENT 10 POPS FOR NOW.
AS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOW GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH DAY 7. RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT WITH THE MEX
MOS TEMPS AND POPS ARE PRETTY STABLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND THE
ECMWF TEMPS AND POPS ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE MEX GUIDANCE. SO WILL
STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NUMBERS THROUGH SUNDAY.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONGER TERM FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE
AVERAGE TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...CURRENTLY BUOY020 REPORTS SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 17 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 19 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER TIGHT TODAY WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAY WATER.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE FOR WINDS.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ON THE GULF
WATERS TODAY. THE WIND FETCH AND LONG DURATION WILL ALLOW BUILDING
SEAS AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 7 FEET AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR EITHER THE LAGUNA MADRE
OR GULF WATERS FOR TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MODERATE PGF WILL PREVAIL LATER
THIS WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND AFTERWARDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 78 86 77 / 0 0 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 91 78 90 76 / 0 0 10 10
HARLINGEN 94 77 93 77 / 0 0 10 10
MCALLEN 96 77 95 77 / 0 0 10 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 98 77 99 76 / 0 0 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 75 85 75 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...60
UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...58
000
FXUS64 KSJT 200856
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
356 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE WILL AGAIN MOVE EAST OF A SONORA...SAN ANGELO...ABILENE...
THROCKMORTON LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
WILL AGAIN EXIST EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WHERE GFS AND NAM GFS
MODELS GIVE SB CAPES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG...ALONG WITH 0 TO 6 KM
BULK SHEARS OF 35 TO 40 KTS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...CAN EXPECT
THEM TO BECOME SEVERE. CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. WHILE
STORMS DID NOT DEVELOP YESTERDAY...THERE WAS A TCU FIELD IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. WENT CLOSE TO GFS AND NAM MOS TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHICH ARE NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES.
04
.LONG TERM...
POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
EARLY TUESDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL /UPPER 80S/ BUT WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEEP MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WILL RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION
OF THE AIRMASS. GFS/NAM MLCAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN
3500-4000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 40 KTS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION IS HIGH. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR
THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL YIELD WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PARAMETERS WHICH WILL LIMIT /BUT NOT PRECLUDE/ THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. EXPECT HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS /POTENTIALLY LARGER
THAN GOLF BALLS/ WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...GENERALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM SONORA...TO EDEN...TO BROWNWOOD. STORMS WILL
PERSIST IN THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD TREND DOWN IN INTENSITY
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE AREA AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE HIGH GIVEN THE
LACK OF A DISCERNIBLE DRYLINE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE ARE
LACKING A LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM. THAT SAID...I WOULD NOT
RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING SIMPLY DUE TO STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING. COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL PRECLUDE MENTION
OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAVE BEEN A FORECAST HEADACHE OWING TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER WEST TX. I THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE TX/NM STATE LINE WHICH WOULD LIMIT ITS POTENTIAL TO
REACH OUR WESTERN BOUNDARY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ON FRIDAY...THE
TROUGH SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST SO I HAVE RETAINED /AND
EXPANDED/ THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL OF THAT
SAID...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME WHEN DEALING WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT DAYS 4-5. IF ANY WAVES DO EJECT ACROSS THE
REGION AND ARE COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING...THIS WOULD LEND
TOWARD A MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AND COULD YIELD AN MCS
OR TWO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO
THE 90S BOTH DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE KEYING ON THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD DIRECT MOST OF THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND WOULD PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CAPPING INVERSION VIA NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION
OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. I HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 90S. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH
OF A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPING BUT MY GUT SAYS
THAT WE COULD BE APPROACHING 100 DEGREES SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY.
WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
JOHNSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYLINE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF A SONORA...SAN ANGELO...
ABILENE...THROCKMORTON LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE BIG
COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY...AS RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS COMBINE WITH SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.
04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 99 68 88 65 94 / 5 20 20 20 5
SAN ANGELO 101 70 93 66 96 / 5 10 20 20 5
JUNCTION 96 70 94 69 93 / 20 20 30 40 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/25
[top]
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 200851
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
251 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON. NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PENETRATE WESTWARD THROUGH HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO
COUNTIES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ALL
AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE AND ADDING
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER WOES IN THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
ONE LAST SHORT WAVE WILL SWING AROUND THROUGH NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...WHICH FOR THE BORDERLAND MEANS BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY
AND VERY DRY TODAY...RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SLIGHT COOLING WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY...BUT AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND END UP CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE HEAT FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY.
THE AXIS AND ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A PACIFIC COAST
TROUGH WILL PLACE US UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DRYLINE WILL
BEGIN A DAILY SLOSHING WESTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND RETREAT EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST OVERNIGHT AND HOW FAR
EAST WILL THE DAILY RETREAT BE? THIS WILL BE CRUCIAL TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BOOMERS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES AND CONTINUING DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS IS
A COMPROMISE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE GFS MODEL WHICH ADDS EL PASO AND
EASTERN DONA ANA COUNTY TO THE MIX...AND THE ECM WHICH HARDLY
TOUCHES HUDSPETH COUNTY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. YOU`LL WANT TO STAY
TUNED ON THIS ONE.
&&
.AVIATION...20/12Z-21/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. WEST WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS AFT 03Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN THIS EVENING. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LOW-END RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN A BELT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GILA REGION INTO
SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTY. WINDS MAY STAY JUST SHY OF CRITERIA IN
SIERRA/EL PASO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES. ALSO DUE TO TERRAIN
EFFECTS...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER IN THE UPPER TULAROSA BASIN
EXCEPT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SAN ANDRES RANGE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL VERY QUICKLY
REBOUND BACK TO THE 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS ON WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 90 67 88 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 90 59 85 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 87 55 85 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 85 54 85 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 64 40 61 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 84 58 84 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 79 50 82 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 85 52 86 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 83 51 86 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 88 64 85 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 85 52 86 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 91 62 90 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 79 55 78 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
FABENS 90 64 87 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 88 59 85 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 87 64 85 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 86 47 85 47 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
HATCH 83 58 81 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 86 58 86 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 88 55 88 54 94 / 0 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 73 46 72 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 72 41 73 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 72 39 72 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 74 45 75 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 78 53 81 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 82 55 83 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 74 45 77 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 79 51 80 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 83 47 87 46 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 78 37 83 37 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 81 51 80 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 85 53 86 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 84 53 85 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 86 55 87 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 81 50 82 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ113.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ110>112.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ055-056.
&&
$$
01 FAUSETT
000
FXUS64 KMAF 200846
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
346 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO HOT WX BY THE WEEKEND BUT ACTUALLY
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER LOOKING TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...
SUNDAY CAME IN AT THE MID 90S EVEN WITH UNLIMITED SUNSHINE AND A
WEST WIND. THIS WAS DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
MOVED EAST THUS NOT MIXING DOWN AS WARM OF AIR. BASED ON EXPECTED
850 TEMPS TODAY NEAR 28C/82F EXPECT HIGHS TODAY AROUND 98 AT
MAF/ODO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN MAF AND
LBB... ETA SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THIS LOCATION AT 06Z THAT DEVELOPS
INTO A SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS DURING THE DAY. THIS LOW DEVELOPS A
WEAK FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. A SOUTH WIND AND WARMER
TEMPS RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WIND TODAY IN THE GUADALUPE MTNS... BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WIND SPEEDS.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE RAIN THIS WEEK OVER PARTS OF W TX AND SE NM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOW POPS BEGINNING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QPF WITH THIS
EVENT AS REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFT UP FROM THE PACIFIC.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS THURSDAY
NIGHT COMING OUT OF NM INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN... IF SO SOME
LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. EXPECT LOCATION OF RAIN WILL
CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GDP MTNS TODAY WHERE
20KTS 85H-7H WINDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...
ESPECIALLY IN TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. RH/S WILL AGAIN BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL WITH BROAD THERMAL RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS REALLY DONE SOME DAMAGE TO FUEL MSTR AS SEEN IN TFS FUEL
DRYNESS NOW DEPICTING 90TH PERCENTILE DRYNESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 62 89 62 / 0 10 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 97 63 88 64 / 10 10 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 97 60 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 100 69 97 70 / 10 10 0 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 98 64 94 65 / 0 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 88 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 94 60 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 87 47 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 98 63 90 64 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA TX 98 64 88 63 / 10 10 0 0
WINK TX 101 62 95 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
49/72
000
FXUS64 KFWD 200837
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY EVENING/S SEVERE WEATHER ROTATES
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS...WITH A DRY LINE SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM BETWEEN
CHILDRESS AND VERNON TO NEAR FORT STOCKTON. THE DRY LINE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL
THEN...WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS SOUTH WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH CONTINUE.
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING...AIDED BY A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE
PROJECTED TO CROSS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER WHERE INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST
TO BE HIGHEST. IN FACT SOME OF THE HI-RES MODEL DATA INDICATES
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OKLAHOMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EAST
TO NEAR THE WESTERN CWA BORDER...INITIATING STORMS BY 00Z/7 PM IF
NOT BEFORE. A NARROW AXIS OF MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN-MOST REGIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. THIS AREA IS CAPTURED WELL BY SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
CELLS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...PERHAPS
TAKING ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY MOTION AS MID LEVEL WINDS VEER LATE
IN THE EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN
ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT OVER THE
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY ROBUST ON QPF
OUTPUT. THE STRONG LLJ WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING MCS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY AS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. MESOSCALE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE
FROM THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD HAVE JUST ENOUGH PUSH TO PENETRATE
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS FOCUS
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THOUGH THE DAY AS LIFT FROM THE
SHORTWAVE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE STEADILY
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...EXITING
THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL NOT
BE AS HIGH AS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD AS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TROUGH HEADS FOR THE THE EASTERN STATES. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
POPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION FOR BOTH LATE
THURSDAY AND LATE FRIDAY...WHERE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...WHICH COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE GENERALLY ABOVE-
NORMAL DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 72 87 68 89 / 20 40 50 50 10
WACO, TX 91 72 89 68 88 / 10 20 40 60 10
PARIS, TX 89 70 82 65 85 / 10 60 50 50 10
DENTON, TX 92 71 86 64 89 / 30 40 40 40 10
MCKINNEY, TX 90 71 85 64 88 / 20 40 50 50 10
DALLAS, TX 91 72 87 69 89 / 20 40 50 50 10
TERRELL, TX 90 72 86 67 87 / 10 30 50 60 10
CORSICANA, TX 91 72 87 69 87 / 10 20 40 60 10
TEMPLE, TX 91 72 88 69 87 / 10 20 40 60 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 94 69 87 65 89 / 30 30 40 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
84/30
000
FXUS64 KAMA 200820
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
320 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON
THURSDAY TO ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS
INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO BY LATE SATURDAY. HAVE RETAINED CURRENT POPS
STRUCTURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO. A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO OR NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO STATE LINE WILL
HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FOUR COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY AS 20 FOOT WINDS
APPROACH 15 TO 20 MPH AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS EITHER THE 20 FOOT WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 82 50 77 54 88 / 5 10 5 5 5
BEAVER OK 78 50 79 52 84 / 20 20 5 5 5
BOISE CITY OK 73 46 75 48 85 / 20 20 5 5 5
BORGER TX 82 53 80 57 88 / 10 10 5 5 5
BOYS RANCH TX 81 49 78 53 89 / 10 10 5 5 5
CANYON TX 82 50 77 53 88 / 5 5 5 5 5
CLARENDON TX 89 54 81 56 88 / 10 5 5 5 5
DALHART TX 76 45 76 48 88 / 10 20 5 5 5
GUYMON OK 77 49 80 51 88 / 20 20 5 5 5
HEREFORD TX 82 49 77 52 89 / 5 5 5 5 5
LIPSCOMB TX 81 52 79 53 84 / 20 20 5 5 5
PAMPA TX 81 51 78 55 85 / 10 10 5 5 5
SHAMROCK TX 88 55 81 56 87 / 20 10 5 5 5
WELLINGTON TX 93 57 83 57 90 / 10 5 5 5 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/11
000
FXUS64 KEWX 200813
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
313 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SUBSIDENT WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL KEEP GULF MOISTURE CAPPED TODAY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN LIFTING BY LATE MORNING WITH DIURNAL HEATING BECOMING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AREA-WIDE. DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN SECTIONS
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS AGAIN
NEAR THE CENTURY MARK. THE CONTINUED GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AS WELL AS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE LOWER 90S WILL PREVAIL. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CAP WILL KEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING BUT
FURTHER NORTH OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...LOWERED HEIGHTS FROM SLIGHT
COOLING ALOFT AND A DRY LINE FOCUS OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SPUR DEVELOPMENT WITH THE UPPER WINDS BRINGING POTENTIAL
STORMS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON
PROGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS IN THE HILL COUNTRY SHOW CAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG
WITH VERY LITTLE CAP. SUBSEQUENTLY WE WILL MENTION A LOW CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW
MEXICO WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT WHICH MAY AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF LATE EVENING TO EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SLIDING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHWEST CWA LATE
IN THE DAY. VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
(PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATED 4000 J/KG. CAPES) SO CAN CERTAINLY SEE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY BY LATE IN THE DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS DISTURBANCES PUSH EAST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY RANGING
FROM NEAR 90 OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN PORTIONS TO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS. AS RIDGING
DRIES THE AIR-MASS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS...SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S HILL COUNTRY...NEAR 70 ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND GULF MOISTURE FOR OUR REGION. LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS WILL BE THE
PATTERN. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S HILL COUNTRY...UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 I-35 CORRIDOR TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 HILL COUNTRY...LOW 90S I-35 CORRIDOR AND MID TO UPPER
90S ELSEWHERE. THERE MAY BE A FEW SEA BREEZE TYPE SHOWERS WHICH
MAY MOVE NORTH INTO OUR EASTERN SECTIONS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT WILL NOW GO WITH SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF ENOUGH COASTAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. GFS MODEL
WANTS TO CONTINUE BUILDING THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS
TEXAS NEXT SUNDAY WITH A CONTINUED WARM...DRY WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 72 93 72 92 / - - 20 40 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 71 91 71 91 / - - 20 40 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 93 71 92 / - - 20 40 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 69 90 68 90 / 20 20 20 40 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 74 99 74 98 / - 20 10 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 89 70 89 / - 10 20 40 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 72 96 71 95 / - 10 10 30 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 90 72 90 / - - 20 40 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 75 91 75 90 / - 10 20 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 73 93 72 92 / - - 20 40 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 73 93 72 91 / - - 10 30 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...02
000
FXUS64 KBRO 200604 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
104 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS APPROACHING IFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WITH
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS AND RISING CEILINGS. WINDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE AFTER 01Z TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT VISIBILITIES REDUCED BY SMOKE AND CEILINGS REDUCED
TO MVFR AND APPROACHING IFR CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. FULL VFR WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS AND RISING CEILINGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST AS THE EARLY DOG DAYS SETTLE IN
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A SLOW BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST WILL BE
SLOW IN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE OF NOTE BELOW 925MB.
TONIGHT...MARINE LAYER TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND WITH STRATUS TO REFORM
AT AND BELOW THE SURFACE INVERSION SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
DEEPENING AND SPREADING NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE MONDAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER TIGHT TONIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECOUPLING
OF THE WINDS. THE CONSTANT MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZE AND DEVELOPING
OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OR IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY...MODELS SUGGEST AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS CONFIRM THAT
DRIER MID LAYER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LONE STAR STATE
INCLUDING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY KEEPING US RAIN FREE. SOME LIMITED
RELIEF IN THE HUMIDITY AS THE DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE LOW TO MID 70
DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST BUT NOT SOAR TO HIGH WITH THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS A BIT
SUPPRESSED WITH THE TROUGH DOMINATING MORE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MONDAY NIGHT...A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
LITTLE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MODERATE LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
VERY WARM AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS BUILDS INLAND.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
BE CLOSE TO THE CWA. AT THIS TIME...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTH AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE
VALLEY ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S NEAR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MID WEEK WHILE THE
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL LOWER AND THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL INCREMENT ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY GIVING THE VALLEY ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
TIGHT WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS TO BE JUST ON THE CUSP OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...20 KNOTS AND 7 FEET. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS OVER THE BAY TO FALL JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNSET WITH STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS. THE BROADENING OF THE WIND FETCH AND LONG DURATION
HAS BEEN BUILDING SEAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WITH THIS TREND
CONTINUING SEAS COULD APPROACH 7 FEET AS EARLY AS TONIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING POSTED OFFSHORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASE IN SEAS TUESDAY AS A LOW SURFACE PRESSURE STRENGTHENS DUE
TO A FRONT PUSHING SOUTH. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF BUT NO IMPACT EXPECTED FOR THE GULF
WATERS WITH SE WINDS CONTINUING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY WEAK AS
IT MOVES SOUTH...SO DO NOT EXPECT A DRASTIC CHANGE IN WINDS. A SCA
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK SEAS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FEET AS RIDGE BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND CENTERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO MORE THAT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 5 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 86 77 89 / 0 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 78 90 76 92 / 0 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 77 93 77 93 / 0 10 10 10
MCALLEN 77 95 77 96 / 0 10 20 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 99 76 98 / 0 10 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 85 77 87 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
63
000
FXUS64 KCRP 200524
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1224 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAF`S.
&&
.AVIATION...STRATUS DECK/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE E CWA WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...PATCHY HAZE/SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL
BURNING IN MEX IS EXPECTED TO LOWER THE VSBY AT TIMES TO MVFR
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID
MORNING AS A STRONG LLJ (30-35KT) MIXES TO THE SFC. AS A RESULT OF
THE STRONG LLJ...SLY WINDS AT THE SFC WILL REMAIN MOD OVERNIGHT
THEN WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID MORNING. THE CRP TAF SITE IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...ONLY UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER
BY A CATEGORY TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE ARE REQUIRED. UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 91 76 92 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 88 74 89 73 / 10 10 10 20 10
LAREDO 78 99 76 97 77 / 10 10 20 10 10
ALICE 76 93 74 94 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 77 86 75 86 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 75 98 74 97 73 / 10 10 30 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 92 76 92 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 85 75 84 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KFWD 200503
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1203 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO LEFT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION INCLUDED BELOW.
BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF STRATUS BASED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OF
STRATUS SURGING NORTH ON THE 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET LATE THIS
EVENING.
THE DFW CWSU INDICATED THAT SEVERAL PILOTS AROUND DFW AIRSPACE
TODAY MENTIONED REDUCED VISIBILITIES WHILE IN FLIGHT/LANDING DUE
TO SMOKE TRAPPED UNDER THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER NORTH TX
TODAY. THE SMOKE CAME FROM FIRES IN NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS CAP IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW...SO THIS THIN LAYER OF SMOKE
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR PILOTS LANDING
AROUND NORTH TX AIRPORTS ON MONDAY. THERE IS NOT REALLY ANY WAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE TAFS...THE SMOKE IS NOT THICK ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN A CLOUD LAYER...AND THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES OCCUR 4-6
THOUSAND FEET ALOFT AND NOT AT THE SURFACE. THEREFORE MENTIONED
THE ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER HERE AS SOME SORT OF HEADS UP TO PILOTS
THAT THIS THIN SMOKE LAYER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
CAVANAUGH
.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TIMING THE ONSET OF
MVFR STRATUS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WENT AHEAD AND LEFT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF
THE METROPLEX AREA TAFS FOR THIS EVENING BASED LARGELY ON
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. THE LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATED THAT THE CAP OVER THE DFW AREA WOULD ERODE BY 02Z
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AREA TAF SITES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS WHILE IR SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY AT THE TIME OF
THIS DISCUSSION. EARLY RESULTS FROM THE 00Z FWD RAOB INDICATE A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE METROPLEX...HOWEVER AN
AIRCRAFT SOUNDING TAKING OFF FROM KDAL DID INDICATE A WEAKER CAP.
EITHER WAY...A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG
LIFT...DO NOT SEE A REASON FOR STORMS TO INITIATE NEAR AREA TAF
SITES THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
FOR TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER UTAH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WOULD
LIKELY NOT REACH THE METROPLEX UNTIL AFTER 23Z OR 6 PM CDT. WENT
AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF VCTS IN ALL METROPLEX AREA TAFS AFTER THIS
TIME DUE TO THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
STORMS. A CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE METROPLEX TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO ITS DIFFICULT TO KNOW
WHETHER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS CAP OR NOT TO MOVE
DIRECTLY OVER AREA TAF SITES. EITHER WAY...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE TRAFFIC HEADACHES AT AREA AIRPORTS SO
THE VCTS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR PLANNING PURPOSES MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE AT THIS POINT.
MVFR STRATUS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS OR GREATER OVER
NORTH TX TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SIMILAR STRATUS TIMING
TO THIS MORNING WHERE STRATUS BUILT OVER METROPLEX TAF SITES AFTER
11Z. STRATUS SHOULD SCATTER OUT OR LIFT TO VFR LEVELS QUICKLY WITH
DRIER AIR ABOVE THE STRATUS DECK ABOVE THE CAP.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
THE DRYLINE HAS REACHED A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS TO GRAHAM TO
BROWNWOOD WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE RETREATING WEST THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE AMOUNT OF
COVERAGE. AS DISCUSSED IN THE MORNING UPDATE...MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT INITIATING ANY CONVECTION IN OUR REGION THIS
EVENING DESPITE CIN BECOMING ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER THE RUC/HRRR/GFS HAVE NOT WAVERED AND ONE OF THE
HI-RES WRFS AT 12Z HAS NOW JOINED THE INITIATION CAMP. THE ISSUE
AT HAND IS LIKELY THAT TODAY/S STRONG WINDS AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
MAKE IT TOUGH FOR AN INFANT UPDRAFT TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
GROW INTO A SUPERCELL WITHOUT A SHORTWAVE TO AID IN LIFT. RIGHT
NOW THE BEST GUESS IS THAT 1 TO 3 STORMS WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE THE
FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS WEST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO DFW TO
LAMPASAS. LOCAL OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE VALUES ARE FROM
2000-3000 J/KG OVER THE CWA AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO
SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM WHEN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
RAMPS UP JUST BEFORE THE SURFACE AIRMASS BECOMES TOO NEGATIVELY
BUOYANT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO AFFECT LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE EAST BY MID-LATE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-20...BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE A BREEZY AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.
THE STORM THREAT FOR MONDAY IS LOOKING GREATER ACROSS A LARGER
PART OF NORTH TEXAS. THE CIN WILL BE EVEN WEAKER THAN TODAY AND
ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING STORM INITIATION IN THE
CWA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ROUGHLY IN THE SAME LOCATION AS IT IS
TODAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CWA...WHICH RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SUPERCELL STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECT
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...INCLUDING
SOME ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS THE SW ZONES. VERY HIGH INSTABILITY
AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING GIANT HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GETS STRONGER AFTER 7PM WITH 0-3KM
SRH VALUES ABOVE 300 M2/S2. SINCE THERE IS LESS CIN THERE IS MORE
TIME FOR EVENING SUPERCELLS TO TAP INTO THIS INSTABILITY AFTER
DARK WHICH IS WHAT IS RAISING OUR CONCERN FOR TORNADOES. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN ZONES...AND
RAISED THEM FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES AS WELL...AS
SUPERCELLS WILL HEAD EASTWARD AND HOLD TOGETHER LONGER.
ON TUESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA
FROM ROUGHLY PARIS TO DFW TO EASTLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THIS DAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE VERY HIGH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SINCE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
RELAX A BIT...THESE STORMS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE INTO A MCS/SQUALL
LINE OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. OBVIOUSLY A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL EXIST WITH THIS CONVECTIVE EPISODE AS WELL. RAINFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A TRACE IN THE NW TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE EPISODE TO FINALLY EXHAUST THE ATMOSPHERE
AND PUSH THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY.
WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90
EACH DAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST
800MB WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING
A RUN AT THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SINCE THERE IS A LACK
OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE MID LEVELS...BELIEVE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NW ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS. WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 90 71 88 67 / 5 20 40 50 50
WACO, TX 72 90 72 91 68 / 5 10 20 40 60
PARIS, TX 70 87 69 83 65 / 5 10 60 50 50
DENTON, TX 70 89 69 86 64 / 5 30 40 40 40
MCKINNEY, TX 70 89 70 85 65 / 5 20 40 50 50
DALLAS, TX 73 91 73 89 69 / 5 20 40 50 50
TERRELL, TX 70 89 71 87 68 / 5 10 30 50 60
CORSICANA, TX 71 89 72 88 69 / 5 10 20 40 60
TEMPLE, TX 71 90 72 92 69 / 5 10 20 40 60
MINERAL WELLS, TX 70 94 68 88 65 / 5 30 30 40 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 200458
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
/06Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 97 71 97 69 90 / 20 10 20 20 20
SAN ANGELO 100 71 99 70 94 / 10 5 20 20 20
JUNCTION 95 71 96 72 95 / 20 10 20 20 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/15
000
FXUS64 KHGX 200449
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS COVER ALMOST ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING.
AS EXPECTED...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE DECREASED...BUT STILL EXPECT
SPEEDS TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
DO NOT EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING TOMORROW...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...SHOULD SEE MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST AND
THEN SPREAD INLAND TOMORROW EVENING. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 92 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 91 74 90 73 / 10 10 10 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 79 75 80 73 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42
000
FXUS64 KMAF 200447
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS
BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AT 15-18KTS. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 200434
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW BOTH KLBB AND KCDS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO
BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH THAT WAS SAGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AT KLBB BY
MIDDAY MONDAY...BUT ARE LESS CERTAIN AT KCDS. MODERATELY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD MONDAY EVENING. VFR CONTINUING.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SAG BRIEFLY INTO KCDS THOUGH PROBABLY NOT
KLBB LATER TONIGHT BEFORE THE DRY WESTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS
WAKE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A COMPLEX
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS WINDING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES RIDING AROUND
AND UNDER THE LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THESE MID/UPPER LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMA SWINGING BY WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
LOCALLY...SO A DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LIFT WORKING ON THE DRY ATMOSPHERE FROM
ONE OF THESE WAVES COULD BRING A RISK OF MORE HEAT BURST ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT /LIKE
WE SAW A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO/ BUT IT APPEARS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUBDUED FROM WHAT WE SAW FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...THE THREAT FOR HEAT BURSTS SHOULD BE LOW.
INSTEAD...THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY /BUT LIGHT/
LATE TONIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH SAGS THROUGH. LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT
WITH LOWS BY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW ZONES
TO MID-60S SOUTHEAST...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRIEFLY RETURN.
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE PLEASANT...BUT GUSTY WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORNING
BOUNDARY MIXES OUT AND WE TAP HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN TODAY...THOUGH
COUPLED WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY...WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL VARY
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NEAR FRIONA TO AROUND THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK IN ASPERMONT.
LONG TERM...
INTI AL PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIKELY TO BE DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIP SKIRTING ACROSS THE NERN
ZONES...THE BEST CHANCE POSSIBLY COMING MONDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SWRN KS TO NWRN PANHANDLE THEN MOVING ESEWD.
NOT SOLD ON PRECIP EITHER DEVELOPING OR MAKING IT INTO THE FCST
AREA IF IT DOES...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. SOME HIGH
TERRAIN CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY BUT WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT MAKING POPS EVEN LESS LIKELY FOR THE FCST AREA. WILL GET
SOME RELIEF WITH TEMPS AS A COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY TUESDAY AND ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO
LOWER HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND STILL WITH SLIGHT CHC TO
CHANCE POPS AS ALTHOUGH UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR IT TO OF THE DIRTY VARIETY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PULLED BACK INTO THE AREA...MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY
ARRIVING FROM THE PACIFIC...AND A SLOSHING DRYLINE. THURSDAY NOW
LOOKING LIKE IT HAS AS MUCH POTENTIAL AS FRIDAY AND WILL NUDGE
THOSE POPS UP SIMILAR TO WHERE FRIDAYS ARE.
FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY...DRY AND WARM TO HOT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WEST OF
THE DRYLINE WERE RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES WHERE
MANY RED FLAG MINUTES HAVE ALREADY BEEN TALLIED. HOWEVER...THIS
CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN WEAKENING A BIT AS OF LATE WITH
ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS...THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAIN VALID. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET EASING THE FIRE DANGER.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THOUGH SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH HUMIDITIES AGAIN FALLING TO AND BELOW 10
PERCENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BOUT OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE FA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN LIGHT
ALL DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 52 83 51 79 50 / 0 0 10 0 10
TULIA 53 87 54 80 55 / 0 0 10 0 10
PLAINVIEW 55 89 56 80 57 / 0 0 10 0 10
LEVELLAND 55 91 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 57 93 55 84 58 / 0 0 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 57 91 54 83 58 / 0 0 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 57 93 56 83 59 / 0 0 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 61 94 56 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 10
SPUR 60 98 60 84 60 / 0 0 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 65 101 63 89 62 / 0 0 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
000
FXUS64 KEWX 200432 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1132 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RICH GULF
MOISTURE TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 06Z TO ABOUT 17Z MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL BREAK
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH VFR CATEGORY
DOMINATING ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SPEEDS OF 10
TO 17 KNOTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE I35 CORRIDOR. KDRT WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE CYCLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
UPDATE...
DRYLINE ALONG A LANGTRY TO JUST EAST OF SONORA LINE MOVING BACK
WEST. THE FEW MODERATE CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG IT HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. AIRMASS IS TOO CAPPED WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING. RE-ESTABLISHED
SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 18Z MODELS STILL SHOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. HIGH
CAPES...AMPLE SHEAR...AND STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
AVIATION...
SCT/BKN CLOUDS ABOUT 5KFT ARE DEPICTED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOS
ALONG I35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 05Z
TO 17Z MONDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE I35 TERMINALS. AFTER 17Z MONDAY...CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DOMINATING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO
17 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. ACROSS KDRT...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS S CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU WERE BECOMING MORE AGITATED ACROSS THE
WRN/NWRN HILL COUNTRY ALONG THE DRY LINE AND WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED EVENING STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. SPC HAS ALSO BROUGHT THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA DOWN INTO THE AREA...SO HAVE UPDATED THE HWO. THIS
CONVECTION WILL END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING NOT LONG AFTER
SUNSET. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE THRU MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DRY
LINE SETTING OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WRN CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER AIR TROUGH AND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ARRIVE IN CENTRAL TX DURING MAX HEATING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH/CENTRAL TX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK
AREA. WITH UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE WELL PAST
SUNSET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DECREASING POPS ON WEDNESDAY...AS
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND COOL NWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT
IN ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE DAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...SO HAVE GONE WITH
SILENT 5-10 PERCENT POPS AND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 94 73 94 72 / - - 10 30 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 93 72 94 71 / - - 10 30 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 94 71 94 70 / - - 10 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 93 71 92 70 / - 10 20 30 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 100 75 99 75 / - 10 20 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 93 71 93 71 / - - 10 30 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 72 96 72 / - - 10 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 93 72 93 71 / - - 10 30 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 93 75 93 74 / - - 10 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 95 73 94 72 / - - 10 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 95 73 / - - 10 20 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
000
FXUS64 KAMA 200420 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1120 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
SOME BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY TRY TO
MAKE A RUN AT THE DHT AND GUY TAF SITES...BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
TO TELL IF ANY ONE OF THE TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING CHANGING
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE GUY TAF SITE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A TEMPO GROUP THERE. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING SUN. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY BY MID MORNING MONDAY...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY AROUND 10
KNOTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS NRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL MEANDER OVER CNTRL PLAINS STATES THRU
MONDAY WITH MINOR EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS.
SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES THIS EVENING...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ARE PLAUSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. KEPT
TUE AND WED DRY AT THIS TIME AS THIS UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVG EWD AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY LATE WED.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS THU
AND THEN SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DEEP WRN
US TROF EVOLVES. RETAINED GENERAL POP STRUCTURE FROM THU THRU SAT
BASED ON LATEST MODEL PROGS. KEPT NON MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NEXT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL...HAVE RETAINED INTEGRITY OF PREVIOUS FCST
PCKG.
ANDRADE
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AREA THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY DUE TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.
ANDRADE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/05
000
FXUS64 KHGX 200230
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
930 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 92 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 91 74 90 73 / 10 10 10 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 79 75 80 73 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42
000
FXUS64 KCRP 200213 AAB
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
913 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...ONLY UPDATE THIS EVENING WAS TO DECREASE CLOUD COVER
BY A CATEGORY TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE ARE REQUIRED. UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 95 77 91 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 92 75 88 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 102 78 99 76 / 10 10 10 10 20
ALICE 75 96 76 93 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 77 86 77 86 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 99 75 98 74 / 10 10 10 10 30
KINGSVILLE 77 92 77 92 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 86 76 85 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HART/79
000
FXUS64 KSJT 200212 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
912 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO RETREAT WESTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NOW GREATLY
DIMINISHED. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT TO OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER OVERNIGHT
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING BACK ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND AND
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
AVIATION...
/00Z UPDATE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND
18KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 71 97 69 90 65 / 10 20 20 20 20
SAN ANGELO 71 99 70 94 66 / 5 20 20 20 20
JUNCTION 71 96 72 95 70 / 10 20 20 30 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
000
FXUS64 KMAF 200117
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
817 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FOR EXPIRATION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT IN
GAPS AND PASSES IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WHERE 20 MPH OR GREATER
WINDS WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER. SINCE WINDS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
WILL NOT BE OVER 20 MPH SUSTAINED FOR ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF
TIME, AND RH/S WILL INCREASE IN THE GUADALUPES, WILL ALLOW THE RED
FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY REMAINS INTACT SINCE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED. 67
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 96 62 91 / 10 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 97 63 89 / 10 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 61 95 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 98 69 98 / 0 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 66 97 65 95 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 62 94 59 88 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 50 87 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 97 63 92 / 10 10 10 0
ODESSA TX 63 96 64 88 / 0 10 10 0
WINK TX 62 100 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KEWX 200115
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
815 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
DRYLINE ALONG A LANGTRY TO JUST EAST OF SONORA LINE MOVING BACK
WEST. THE FEW MODERATE CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG IT HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED. AIRMASS IS TOO CAPPED WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND HAVE REMOVED ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING. RE-ESTABLISHED
SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 18Z MODELS STILL SHOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. HIGH
CAPES...AMPLE SHEAR...AND STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
AVIATION...
SCT/BKN CLOUDS ABOUT 5KFT ARE DEPICTED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOS
ALONG I35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 05Z
TO 17Z MONDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE I35 TERMINALS. AFTER 17Z MONDAY...CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DOMINATING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO
17 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. ACROSS KDRT...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS S CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU WERE BECOMING MORE AGITATED ACROSS THE
WRN/NWRN HILL COUNTRY ALONG THE DRY LINE AND WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED EVENING STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. SPC HAS ALSO BROUGHT THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA DOWN INTO THE AREA...SO HAVE UPDATED THE HWO. THIS
CONVECTION WILL END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING NOT LONG AFTER
SUNSET. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE THRU MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DRY
LINE SETTING OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WRN CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER AIR TROUGH AND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ARRIVE IN CENTRAL TX DURING MAX HEATING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH/CENTRAL TX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK
AREA. WITH UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE WELL PAST
SUNSET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DECREASING POPS ON WEDNESDAY...AS
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND COOL NWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT
IN ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE DAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...SO HAVE GONE WITH
SILENT 5-10 PERCENT POPS AND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 94 73 94 72 / - - 10 30 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 93 72 94 71 / - - 10 30 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 94 71 94 70 / - - 10 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 93 71 92 70 / - 10 20 30 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 100 75 99 75 / - 10 20 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 93 71 93 71 / - - 10 30 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 72 96 72 / - - 10 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 93 72 93 71 / - - 10 30 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 93 75 93 74 / - - 10 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 95 73 94 72 / - - 10 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 95 73 / - - 10 20 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KFWD 200018
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
718 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TIMING THE ONSET OF
MVFR STRATUS ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WENT AHEAD AND LEFT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF
THE METROPLEX AREA TAFS FOR THIS EVENING BASED LARGELY ON
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. THE LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATED THAT THE CAP OVER THE DFW AREA WOULD ERODE BY 02Z
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AREA TAF SITES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS WHILE IR SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY AT THE TIME OF
THIS DISCUSSION. EARLY RESULTS FROM THE 00Z FWD RAOB INDICATE A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE METROPLEX...HOWEVER AN
AIRCRAFT SOUNDING TAKING OFF FROM KDAL DID INDICATE A WEAKER CAP.
EITHER WAY...A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG
LIFT...DO NOT SEE A REASON FOR STORMS TO INITIATE NEAR AREA TAF
SITES THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
FOR TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER UTAH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WOULD
LIKELY NOT REACH THE METROPLEX UNTIL AFTER 23Z OR 6 PM CDT. WENT
AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF VCTS IN ALL METROPLEX AREA TAFS AFTER THIS
TIME DUE TO THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
STORMS. A CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE METROPLEX TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO ITS DIFFICULT TO KNOW
WHETHER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS CAP OR NOT TO MOVE
DIRECTLY OVER AREA TAF SITES. EITHER WAY...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE TRAFFIC HEADACHES AT AREA AIRPORTS SO
THE VCTS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR PLANNING PURPOSES MORE THAN
ANYTHING ELSE AT THIS POINT.
MVFR STRATUS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS OR GREATER OVER
NORTH TX TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SIMILAR STRATUS TIMING
TO THIS MORNING WHERE STRATUS BUILT OVER METROPLEX TAF SITES AFTER
11Z. STRATUS SHOULD SCATTER OUT OR LIFT TO VFR LEVELS QUICKLY WITH
DRIER AIR ABOVE THE STRATUS DECK ABOVE THE CAP.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
THE DRYLINE HAS REACHED A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS TO GRAHAM TO
BROWNWOOD WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE RETREATING WEST THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE AMOUNT OF
COVERAGE. AS DISCUSSED IN THE MORNING UPDATE...MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT INITIATING ANY CONVECTION IN OUR REGION THIS
EVENING DESPITE CIN BECOMING ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER THE RUC/HRRR/GFS HAVE NOT WAVERED AND ONE OF THE
HI-RES WRFS AT 12Z HAS NOW JOINED THE INITIATION CAMP. THE ISSUE
AT HAND IS LIKELY THAT TODAY/S STRONG WINDS AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
MAKE IT TOUGH FOR AN INFANT UPDRAFT TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
GROW INTO A SUPERCELL WITHOUT A SHORTWAVE TO AID IN LIFT. RIGHT
NOW THE BEST GUESS IS THAT 1 TO 3 STORMS WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE THE
FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS WEST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO DFW TO
LAMPASAS. LOCAL OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE VALUES ARE FROM
2000-3000 J/KG OVER THE CWA AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO
SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM WHEN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
RAMPS UP JUST BEFORE THE SURFACE AIRMASS BECOMES TOO NEGATIVELY
BUOYANT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO AFFECT LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE EAST BY MID-LATE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-20...BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE A BREEZY AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.
THE STORM THREAT FOR MONDAY IS LOOKING GREATER ACROSS A LARGER
PART OF NORTH TEXAS. THE CIN WILL BE EVEN WEAKER THAN TODAY AND
ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING STORM INITIATION IN THE
CWA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ROUGHLY IN THE SAME LOCATION AS IT IS
TODAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CWA...WHICH RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SUPERCELL STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECT
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...INCLUDING
SOME ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS THE SW ZONES. VERY HIGH INSTABILITY
AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING GIANT HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GETS STRONGER AFTER 7PM WITH 0-3KM
SRH VALUES ABOVE 300 M2/S2. SINCE THERE IS LESS CIN THERE IS MORE
TIME FOR EVENING SUPERCELLS TO TAP INTO THIS INSTABILITY AFTER
DARK WHICH IS WHAT IS RAISING OUR CONCERN FOR TORNADOES. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN ZONES...AND
RAISED THEM FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES AS WELL...AS
SUPERCELLS WILL HEAD EASTWARD AND HOLD TOGETHER LONGER.
ON TUESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA
FROM ROUGHLY PARIS TO DFW TO EASTLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THIS DAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE VERY HIGH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SINCE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
RELAX A BIT...THESE STORMS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE INTO A MCS/SQUALL
LINE OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. OBVIOUSLY A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL EXIST WITH THIS CONVECTIVE EPISODE AS WELL. RAINFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A TRACE IN THE NW TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE EPISODE TO FINALLY EXHAUST THE ATMOSPHERE
AND PUSH THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY.
WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90
EACH DAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST
800MB WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING
A RUN AT THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SINCE THERE IS A LACK
OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE MID LEVELS...BELIEVE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NW ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS. WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 90 71 88 67 / 10 20 40 50 50
WACO, TX 72 90 72 91 68 / 5 10 20 40 60
PARIS, TX 70 87 69 83 65 / 10 10 60 50 50
DENTON, TX 70 89 69 86 64 / 10 30 40 40 40
MCKINNEY, TX 70 89 70 85 65 / 10 20 40 50 50
DALLAS, TX 73 91 73 89 69 / 10 20 40 50 50
TERRELL, TX 70 89 71 87 68 / 10 10 30 50 60
CORSICANA, TX 71 89 72 88 69 / 5 10 20 40 60
TEMPLE, TX 71 90 72 92 69 / 5 10 20 40 60
MINERAL WELLS, TX 70 94 68 88 65 / 20 30 30 40 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 200016
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
716 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SAG BRIEFLY INTO KCDS THOUGH PROBABLY NOT
KLBB LATER TONIGHT BEFORE THE DRY WESTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS
WAKE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A COMPLEX
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS WINDING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES RIDING AROUND
AND UNDER THE LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THESE MID/UPPER LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMA SWINGING BY WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
LOCALLY...SO A DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LIFT WORKING ON THE DRY ATMOSPHERE FROM
ONE OF THESE WAVES COULD BRING A RISK OF MORE HEAT BURST ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT /LIKE
WE SAW A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO/ BUT IT APPEARS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUBDUED FROM WHAT WE SAW FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...THE THREAT FOR HEAT BURSTS SHOULD BE LOW.
INSTEAD...THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY /BUT LIGHT/
LATE TONIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH SAGS THROUGH. LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT
WITH LOWS BY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW ZONES
TO MID-60S SOUTHEAST...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRIEFLY RETURN.
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE PLEASANT...BUT GUSTY WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORNING
BOUNDARY MIXES OUT AND WE TAP HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN TODAY...THOUGH
COUPLED WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY...WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL VARY
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NEAR FRIONA TO AROUND THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK IN ASPERMONT.
LONG TERM...
INTI AL PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIKELY TO BE DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIP SKIRTING ACROSS THE NERN
ZONES...THE BEST CHANCE POSSIBLY COMING MONDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SWRN KS TO NWRN PANHANDLE THEN MOVING ESEWD.
NOT SOLD ON PRECIP EITHER DEVELOPING OR MAKING IT INTO THE FCST
AREA IF IT DOES...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. SOME HIGH
TERRAIN CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY BUT WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT MAKING POPS EVEN LESS LIKELY FOR THE FCST AREA. WILL GET
SOME RELIEF WITH TEMPS AS A COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY TUESDAY AND ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO
LOWER HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND STILL WITH SLIGHT CHC TO
CHANCE POPS AS ALTHOUGH UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR IT TO OF THE DIRTY VARIETY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PULLED BACK INTO THE AREA...MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY
ARRIVING FROM THE PACIFIC...AND A SLOSHING DRYLINE. THURSDAY NOW
LOOKING LIKE IT HAS AS MUCH POTENTIAL AS FRIDAY AND WILL NUDGE
THOSE POPS UP SIMILAR TO WHERE FRIDAYS ARE.
FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY...DRY AND WARM TO HOT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WEST OF
THE DRYLINE WERE RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES WHERE
MANY RED FLAG MINUTES HAVE ALREADY BEEN TALLIED. HOWEVER...THIS
CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN WEAKENING A BIT AS OF LATE WITH
ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS...THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAIN VALID. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET EASING THE FIRE DANGER.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THOUGH SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH HUMIDITIES AGAIN FALLING TO AND BELOW 10
PERCENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BOUT OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE FA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN LIGHT
ALL DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 52 83 51 79 50 / 0 0 10 0 10
TULIA 53 87 54 80 55 / 0 0 10 0 10
PLAINVIEW 55 89 56 80 57 / 0 0 10 0 10
LEVELLAND 55 91 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 57 93 55 84 58 / 0 0 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 57 91 54 83 58 / 0 0 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 57 93 56 83 59 / 0 0 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 61 94 56 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 10
SPUR 60 98 60 84 60 / 0 0 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 65 101 63 89 62 / 0 0 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030.
&&
$$
99/99/05
000
FXUS64 KFWD 200013 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
713 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE WILL REMOVE POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. DRYLINE...WHILE SHARP TO THE WEST OF OUR
AREA BECAME MORE DISORGANIZED ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT. THIS
APPARENT LACK OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS PREVENTED CONVECTIVE INITIATION
DESPITE BEING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED NEAR THE
DRYLINE. WITH THE DRYLINE NOW RETREATING...EXPECT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED MUCH FARTHER NORTH...SO WILL REMOVE
MENTION OF EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE TOMORROW AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PRESENT
ALONG WITH A WEAKER CAP.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
THE DRYLINE HAS REACHED A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS TO GRAHAM TO
BROWNWOOD WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE RETREATING WEST THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE AMOUNT OF
COVERAGE. AS DISCUSSED IN THE MORNING UPDATE...MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT INITIATING ANY CONVECTION IN OUR REGION THIS
EVENING DESPITE CIN BECOMING ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER THE RUC/HRRR/GFS HAVE NOT WAVERED AND ONE OF THE
HI-RES WRFS AT 12Z HAS NOW JOINED THE INITIATION CAMP. THE ISSUE
AT HAND IS LIKELY THAT TODAY/S STRONG WINDS AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
MAKE IT TOUGH FOR AN INFANT UPDRAFT TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
GROW INTO A SUPERCELL WITHOUT A SHORTWAVE TO AID IN LIFT. RIGHT
NOW THE BEST GUESS IS THAT 1 TO 3 STORMS WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE THE
FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS WEST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO DFW TO
LAMPASAS. LOCAL OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE VALUES ARE FROM
2000-3000 J/KG OVER THE CWA AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO
SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM WHEN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
RAMPS UP JUST BEFORE THE SURFACE AIRMASS BECOMES TOO NEGATIVELY
BUOYANT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO AFFECT LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE EAST BY MID-LATE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-20...BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE A BREEZY AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.
THE STORM THREAT FOR MONDAY IS LOOKING GREATER ACROSS A LARGER
PART OF NORTH TEXAS. THE CIN WILL BE EVEN WEAKER THAN TODAY AND
ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING STORM INITIATION IN THE
CWA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ROUGHLY IN THE SAME LOCATION AS IT IS
TODAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CWA...WHICH RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SUPERCELL STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECT
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...INCLUDING
SOME ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS THE SW ZONES. VERY HIGH INSTABILITY
AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING GIANT HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GETS STRONGER AFTER 7PM WITH 0-3KM
SRH VALUES ABOVE 300 M2/S2. SINCE THERE IS LESS CIN THERE IS MORE
TIME FOR EVENING SUPERCELLS TO TAP INTO THIS INSTABILITY AFTER
DARK WHICH IS WHAT IS RAISING OUR CONCERN FOR TORNADOES. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN ZONES...AND
RAISED THEM FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES AS WELL...AS
SUPERCELLS WILL HEAD EASTWARD AND HOLD TOGETHER LONGER.
ON TUESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA
FROM ROUGHLY PARIS TO DFW TO EASTLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THIS DAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE VERY HIGH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SINCE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
RELAX A BIT...THESE STORMS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE INTO A MCS/SQUALL
LINE OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. OBVIOUSLY A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL EXIST WITH THIS CONVECTIVE EPISODE AS WELL. RAINFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A TRACE IN THE NW TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE EPISODE TO FINALLY EXHAUST THE ATMOSPHERE
AND PUSH THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY.
WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90
EACH DAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST
800MB WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING
A RUN AT THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SINCE THERE IS A LACK
OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE MID LEVELS...BELIEVE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NW ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS. WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 90 71 88 67 / 5 20 40 50 50
WACO, TX 72 90 72 91 68 / 5 10 20 40 60
PARIS, TX 70 87 69 83 65 / 5 10 60 50 50
DENTON, TX 70 89 69 86 64 / 5 30 40 40 40
MCKINNEY, TX 70 89 70 85 65 / 5 20 40 50 50
DALLAS, TX 73 91 73 89 69 / 5 20 40 50 50
TERRELL, TX 70 89 71 87 68 / 5 10 30 50 60
CORSICANA, TX 71 89 72 88 69 / 5 10 20 40 60
TEMPLE, TX 71 90 72 92 69 / 5 10 20 40 60
MINERAL WELLS, TX 70 94 68 88 65 / 5 30 30 40 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KCRP 200001 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
701 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...BAND OF CLOUDS/MVFR CEILINGS...OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW OF
30-35 KNOTS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH CEILINGS REMAINING FROM
1200-1500 FEET. PLACED A TEMPO GROUP AROUND DAYBREAK FOR THE
ALI/VCT/CRP TAFS FOR MVFR VSBYS IN FOG/HAZE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO LIFT BY LATE MORNING AND BREAK OUT BY THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDS PREVALENT ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A QUIET AND
PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A STRONG SOUTHEAST LLJ
DEVELOPING. SPC DOES HAVE THE FAR WESTERN AREAS UNDER GENERAL
THUNDER...HOWEVER WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH NO REAL STRONG
FORCING THIS FAR SOUTH...AM NOT EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. THE DRY LINE AS WELL AS THE SPLIT FLOW IN THE JET SHOULD
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. MUGGY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS WELL AS MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 70S. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT (MAYBE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY)...WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS WARM AND
QUIET. CONCERNING CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON IT FOR
OUR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN AREAS BUT COULD SEE SOMETHING LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON THERE IF IT GETS WARMER THAN EXPECTED THERE AND ENOUGH
ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA (MOST OF THE ENERGY IS
TO THE NORTH...AND THERE IS STILL SOME CAP ALBEIT WEAKEST THERE).
WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREAS AWAY FROM
THE COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST COASTAL AREAS WHERE CAP IS STRONGEST AND DRIER THETA-E AIR
RESIDES. FOR WEDNESDAY...ENERGY FROM UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND
THINK RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA ARE QUITE LOW...SO JUST FOR
CONSISTENCY SAKE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS VICTORIA AREA BUT KEEP
RAIN OUT ELSEWHERE (AND DIMINISH AREAL COVERAGE OF 20 POPS). UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AFTER THAT...AND AIRMASS BEGINS TO SLOWLY
DRY OUT...SO NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND
MUGGY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE
VALUES OF OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND ATMOSPHERE
DRIES OUT. 700MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES ALSO DIMINISH SOME AFTER MID
WEEK...SO DAYTIME HIGHS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER AS WELL. STILL...
OVERALL AM EXPECTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES AND WILL GENERALLY GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE MOST
LOCATIONS ON THESE TEMPERATURE ELEMENTS.
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING
BELOW CRITERIA THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION WITH ONSHORE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 95 77 91 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 92 75 88 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 102 78 99 76 / 10 10 10 10 20
ALICE 75 96 76 93 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 77 86 77 86 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 99 75 98 74 / 10 10 10 10 30
KINGSVILLE 77 92 77 92 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 86 76 85 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KHGX 192358
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
658 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL WORK INLAND THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BEFORE 05Z
(MIDNIGHT). SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT AFTER
SUNSET...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE UNTIL AROUND MID
MORNING TOMORROW...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST AND THEN SPREAD INLAND TOMORROW EVENING. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SE TX WAS UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AS IT DOES...THE MODELS PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS SE TX. A DRIER PERIOD IS THEN EXPECTED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
IN THE SHORT TERM...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR SE TX ON
MONDAY AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT CAP
IN PLACE. EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS WERE BRINGING IN A BIT OF
QPF...FELT THAT A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE A REPEAT OF THE
LAST TWO DAYS WITH THE EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING
DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON TUESDAY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO
BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE GFS AND NAM BUFR MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH ERODE THE CAP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE ALSO FORECASTING SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. PW/S ARE NOW FORECASTED TO REACH BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7
INCHES. FELT THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE
MORE OVER NORTH TEXAS...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORM OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHTLY CONFLICTING STRENGTHS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...DECIDED TO KEEP THE RAIN
CHANCES THE SAME TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FOR THE LAST PART OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
HELP WARM UP THE AIR MASS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FELT THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
GUIDANCE WAS ON TRACK.
MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND
WILL CARRY A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL THE
WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF TOWARD MID WEEK.
46
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 92 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 91 74 90 73 / 10 10 10 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 79 75 80 73 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42
000
FXUS64 KAMA 192338 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING CHANGING
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE GUY TAF SITE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH A TEMPO GROUP THERE. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING SUN. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY BY MID MORNING MONDAY...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY AROUND 10
KNOTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS NRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL MEANDER OVER CNTRL PLAINS STATES THRU
MONDAY WITH MINOR EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS.
SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES THIS EVENING...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ARE PLAUSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. KEPT
TUE AND WED DRY AT THIS TIME AS THIS UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVG EWD AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY LATE WED.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS THU
AND THEN SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DEEP WRN
US TROF EVOLVES. RETAINED GENERAL POP STRUCTURE FROM THU THRU SAT
BASED ON LATEST MODEL PROGS. KEPT NON MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NEXT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL...HAVE RETAINED INTEGRITY OF PREVIOUS FCST
PCKG.
ANDRADE
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AREA THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY DUE TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.
ANDRADE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/05
000
FXUS64 KBRO 192327 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
627 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT VISIBILITIES REDUCED BY SMOKE AND CEILINGS REDUCED
TO MVFR AND APPROACHING IFR CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. FULL VFR WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS AND RISING CEILINGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST AS THE EARLY DOG DAYS SETTLE IN
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A SLOW BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST WILL BE
SLOW IN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE OF NOTE BELOW 925MB.
TONIGHT...MARINE LAYER TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND WITH STRATUS TO REFORM
AT AND BELOW THE SURFACE INVERSION SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
DEEPENING AND SPREADING NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE MONDAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER TIGHT TONIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECOUPLING
OF THE WINDS. THE CONSTANT MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZE AND DEVELOPING
OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OR IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY...MODELS SUGGEST AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS CONFIRM THAT
DRIER MID LAYER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LONE STAR STATE
INCLUDING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY KEEPING US RAIN FREE. SOME LIMITED
RELIEF IN THE HUMIDITY AS THE DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE LOW TO MID 70
DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST BUT NOT SOAR TO HIGH WITH THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS A BIT
SUPPRESSED WITH THE TROUGH DOMINATING MORE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MONDAY NIGHT...A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
LITTLE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MODERATE LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
VERY WARM AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS BUILDS INLAND.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
BE CLOSE TO THE CWA. AT THIS TIME...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTH AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE
VALLEY ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S NEAR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MID WEEK WHILE THE
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL LOWER AND THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL INCREMENT ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY GIVING THE VALLEY ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
TIGHT WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS TO BE JUST ON THE CUSP OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...20 KNOTS AND 7 FEET. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS OVER THE BAY TO FALL JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNSET WITH STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS. THE BROADENING OF THE WIND FETCH AND LONG DURATION
HAS BEEN BUILDING SEAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WITH THIS TREND
CONTINUING SEAS COULD APPROACH 7 FEET AS EARLY AS TONIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING POSTED OFFSHORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASE IN SEAS TUESDAY AS A LOW SURFACE PRESSURE STRENGTHENS DUE
TO A FRONT PUSHING SOUTH. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF BUT NO IMPACT EXPECTED FOR THE GULF
WATERS WITH SE WINDS CONTINUING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY WEAK AS
IT MOVES SOUTH...SO DO NOT EXPECT A DRASTIC CHANGE IN WINDS. A SCA
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK SEAS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FEET AS RIDGE BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND CENTERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO MORE THAT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 5 FEET.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
000
FXUS64 KSJT 192315
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
/00Z UPDATE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND
18KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 69 97 69 90 65 / 20 20 20 20 20
SAN ANGELO 69 99 70 94 66 / 5 20 20 20 20
JUNCTION 70 96 72 95 70 / 20 20 20 30 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
15
000
FXUS64 KEWX 192313 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
613 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
SCT/BKN CLOUDS ABOUT 5KFT ARE DEPICTED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOS
ALONG I35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 05Z
TO 17Z MONDAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE I35 TERMINALS. AFTER 17Z MONDAY...CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR
CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DOMINATING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO
17 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. ACROSS KDRT...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS S CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU WERE BECOMING MORE AGITATED ACROSS THE
WRN/NWRN HILL COUNTRY ALONG THE DRY LINE AND WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED EVENING STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. SPC HAS ALSO BROUGHT THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA DOWN INTO THE AREA...SO HAVE UPDATED THE HWO. THIS
CONVECTION WILL END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING NOT LONG AFTER
SUNSET. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE THRU MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DRY
LINE SETTING OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WRN CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER AIR TROUGH AND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ARRIVE IN CENTRAL TX DURING MAX HEATING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH/CENTRAL TX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK
AREA. WITH UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE WELL PAST
SUNSET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DECREASING POPS ON WEDNESDAY...AS
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND COOL NWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT
IN ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE DAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...SO HAVE GONE WITH
SILENT 5-10 PERCENT POPS AND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 94 73 94 72 / - - 10 30 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 93 72 94 71 / - - 10 30 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 94 71 94 70 / - - 10 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 93 71 92 70 / 10 10 20 30 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 100 75 99 75 / - 10 20 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 93 71 93 71 / - - 10 30 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 72 96 72 / 10 - 10 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 93 72 93 71 / - - 10 30 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 93 75 93 74 / 10 - 10 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 95 73 94 72 / - - 10 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 95 73 / - - 10 20 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KMAF 192255
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ONLY TO
INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THOSE FOR YESTERDAY DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE
DRYLINE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA AND GUSTY DRY WEST WINDS ARE
PREVAILING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER AS THE DRYLINE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK INTO ALL EXCEPT THE EASTERN FRINGES
OF THE CWA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR GDP FOR MONDAY FROM
LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS...700 MB WINDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THESE SOURCES INDICATE WEAKER WINDS AT 700 MB AND NOT MUCH MIXING
ABOVE THAT LEVEL. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE ALSO TRENDING DOWNWARD
IN WIND SPEEDS FOR GDP ON MONDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...IT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES WITH A NE WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS WEST
TEXAS WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. STARTING THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR ABOVE AVERAGE MORNING
LOWS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRECIP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 96 62 91 / 10 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 97 63 89 / 10 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 61 95 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 98 69 98 / 0 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 66 97 65 95 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 62 94 59 88 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 50 87 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 97 63 92 / 10 10 10 0
ODESSA TX 63 96 64 88 / 0 10 10 0
WINK TX 62 100 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
70/80
000
FXUS64 KAMA 192228
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
528 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS NRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL MEANDER OVER CNTRL PLAINS STATES THRU
MONDAY WITH MINOR EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS.
SLGT CHC POPS NRN ZONES THIS EVENING...MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ARE PLAUSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. KEPT
TUE AND WED DRY AT THIS TIME AS THIS UPPER LOW BEGINS MOVG EWD AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY LATE WED.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS THU
AND THEN SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A DEEP WRN
US TROF EVOLVES. RETAINED GENERAL POP STRUCTURE FROM THU THRU SAT
BASED ON LATEST MODEL PROGS. KEPT NON MENTIONABLE POPS FOR NEXT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL...HAVE RETAINED INTEGRITY OF PREVIOUS FCST
PCKG.
ANDRADE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING AREA THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY DUE TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ALONG WITH FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.
ANDRADE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 52 81 49 78 53 / 0 5 10 5 5
BEAVER OK 52 79 50 79 51 / 20 20 20 5 5
BOISE CITY OK 47 76 46 75 49 / 20 20 20 5 5
BORGER TX 56 81 52 80 56 / 5 10 10 5 5
BOYS RANCH TX 51 81 48 78 52 / 0 10 10 5 5
CANYON TX 51 81 49 78 52 / 0 5 5 5 5
CLARENDON TX 55 87 53 81 55 / 0 5 5 5 5
DALHART TX 47 77 46 77 49 / 10 10 20 5 5
GUYMON OK 51 77 49 79 51 / 20 20 20 5 5
HEREFORD TX 50 82 48 78 51 / 0 5 5 5 5
LIPSCOMB TX 52 80 51 79 52 / 20 10 20 5 5
PAMPA TX 53 81 52 78 54 / 5 5 10 5 5
SHAMROCK TX 55 86 54 81 55 / 0 5 10 5 5
WELLINGTON TX 58 90 55 83 57 / 0 5 5 5 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 192116
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
416 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...
MODELS THIS CYCLE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRYLINE MAY INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TOMORROW AND
TUESDAY. THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A HASKELL...TO SAN
ANGELO...TO SONORA LINE. ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE...CURRENT
LOCAL ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION SYSTEM DATA...AS OF 21Z...INDICATE
SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 3200 J/KG. PLUS...OTHER
SURFACE DATA INDICATE GOOD MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...WE HAVE
TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB AROUND 12 TO 13 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND WE
HAVE MIXED LAYER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION VALUES EAST OF THE DRYLINE
IN THE 50 TO 100 J/KG. SO...WE STILL NEED TO BREAK THIS CAP BEFORE
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER JUST UPDATED
THEIR DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...AND THEY EXTENDED THE SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREA FARTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE OUR
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTY COUNTIES. SO...IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP...SOME MAY BE SEVERE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
NEAR THROCKMORTON...TO EDEN...TO A POINT ON INTERSTATE 10 AT THE
SUTTON AND KIMBLE COUNTY LINE. THE MAIN THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
WE ANTICIPATE THE SAME RISKS FOR ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AREA
TOMORROW AND TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...
I DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO ANY OF THE LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...PERIODS. I DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO TO KEEP THEM IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
NUMBERS.
I DID NOT CHANGE ANY POPS. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BRING A 500 MB
TROUGH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MAY GENERATE SOME LIFT.
HOWEVER...THE BETTER DYNAMICS MAY BE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO...I
DECIDED TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SOME OF
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
LONG TERM...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S.
.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEST OF A THROCKMORTON TO ABILENE TO SAN
ANGELO LINE...DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
AND 20 FOOT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 18 MPH. EXPECT SIMILAR FIRE
DANGER CONDITIONS AGAIN MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 69 97 69 90 65 / 20 20 20 20 20
SAN ANGELO 69 99 70 94 66 / 5 20 20 20 20
JUNCTION 70 96 72 95 70 / 20 20 20 30 30
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21/HUBER
000
FXUS64 KCRP 192056
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
356 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...A QUIET AND
PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM WITH UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A STRONG SOUTHEAST LLJ
DEVELOPING. SPC DOES HAVE THE FAR WESTERN AREAS UNDER GENERAL
THUNDER...HOWEVER WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH NO REAL STRONG
FORCING THIS FAR SOUTH...AM NOT EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. THE DRY LINE AS WELL AS THE SPLIT FLOW IN THE JET SHOULD
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. MUGGY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS WELL AS MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 70S. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT (MAYBE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY)...WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MOST PART REMAINS WARM AND
QUIET. CONCERNING CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON IT FOR
OUR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN AREAS BUT COULD SEE SOMETHING LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON THERE IF IT GETS WARMER THAN EXPECTED THERE AND ENOUGH
ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA (MOST OF THE ENERGY IS
TO THE NORTH...AND THERE IS STILL SOME CAP ALBEIT WEAKEST THERE).
WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREAS AWAY FROM
THE COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST COASTAL AREAS WHERE CAP IS STRONGEST AND DRIER THETA-E AIR
RESIDES. FOR WEDNESDAY...ENERGY FROM UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND
THINK RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA ARE QUITE LOW...SO JUST FOR
CONSISTENCY SAKE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS VICTORIA AREA BUT KEEP
RAIN OUT ELSEWHERE (AND DIMINISH AREAL COVERAGE OF 20 POPS). UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AFTER THAT...AND AIRMASS BEGINS TO SLOWLY
DRY OUT...SO NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND
MUGGY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE
VALUES OF OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND ATMOSPHERE
DRIES OUT. 700MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES ALSO DIMINISH SOME AFTER MID
WEEK...SO DAYTIME HIGHS APPEAR TO BE A BIT LOWER AS WELL. STILL...
OVERALL AM EXPECTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES AND WILL GENERALLY GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE MOST
LOCATIONS ON THESE TEMPERATURE ELEMENTS.
&&
.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING
BELOW CRITERIA THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION WITH ONSHORE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 95 77 91 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 75 92 75 88 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 102 78 99 76 / 10 10 10 10 20
ALICE 75 96 76 93 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 77 86 77 86 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 99 75 98 74 / 10 10 10 10 30
KINGSVILLE 77 92 77 92 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 86 76 85 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
CB/85...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KHGX 192053
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SE TX WAS UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AS IT DOES...THE MODELS PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS SE TX. A DRIER PERIOD IS THEN EXPECTED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
IN THE SHORT TERM...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR SE TX ON
MONDAY AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT CAP
IN PLACE. EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS WERE BRINGING IN A BIT OF
QPF...FELT THAT A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE A REPEAT OF THE
LAST TWO DAYS WITH THE EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING
DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON TUESDAY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO
BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE GFS AND NAM BUFR MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH ERODE THE CAP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE ALSO FORECASTING SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. PW/S ARE NOW FORECASTED TO REACH BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7
INCHES. FELT THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE
MORE OVER NORTH TEXAS...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORM OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHTLY CONFLICTING STRENGTHS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...DECIDED TO KEEP THE RAIN
CHANCES THE SAME TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FOR THE LAST PART OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
HELP WARM UP THE AIR MASS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FELT THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
GUIDANCE WAS ON TRACK.
40
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND
WILL CARRY A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL THE
WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF TOWARD MID WEEK.
46
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND. THERE ARE A FEW CLOUDS COMING IN OFF THE GULF...NOT
SURE CLOUD HEIGHTS ON THOSE...BUT WILL KNOW SHORTLY AS THEY COME
ASHORE. LOW CEILINGS FROM LAST NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY 1000 TO
1500 FOOT DECK...MIXED OUT BETWEEN 13 UTC AND 15 UTC...OR 08 TO 10
CDT...THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...WITH SIMILAR FLOW PATTERN AND
MOISTURE PROFILES...EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH THE FORMATION OF
A STRATUS DECK AFTER SUNSET. IN ANYTHING...LOW DECK COULD DEVELOP
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER...GIVEN LACK OF CIRRUS THAT WE HAD LAST
NIGHT...AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAF. MONDAY...SHOULD SEE
LOWER DECK MIX OUT AGAIN...ABOUT THE SAME TIMING. 46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD CAP OVERHEAD OF SE TX THIS MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE CAP WERE DISSIPATING AT 10 AM AND
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE SURFACE TO 700 MB RIDGE WAS KEEPING A FAIRLY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. THE MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO ERODE MUCH OF THE CAP...BUT THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION ABOVE 850 MB TO LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. DO LIKE THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH GOES ABOVE THE
GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE SMOKE AND HAZE
APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND WOULD EXPECT THIS GIVEN THAT
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE HAS NOT MOVED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 92 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 91 74 90 73 / 10 10 10 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 79 75 80 73 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...46
000
FXUS64 KFWD 192028
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE DRYLINE HAS REACHED A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS TO GRAHAM TO
BROWNWOOD WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE RETREATING WEST THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS
WHETHER STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE AMOUNT OF
COVERAGE. AS DISCUSSED IN THE MORNING UPDATE...MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT INITIATING ANY CONVECTION IN OUR REGION THIS
EVENING DESPITE CIN BECOMING ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES. HOWEVER THE RUC/HRRR/GFS HAVE NOT WAVERED AND ONE OF THE
HI-RES WRFS AT 12Z HAS NOW JOINED THE INITIATION CAMP. THE ISSUE
AT HAND IS LIKELY THAT TODAY/S STRONG WINDS AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
MAKE IT TOUGH FOR AN INFANT UPDRAFT TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
GROW INTO A SUPERCELL WITHOUT A SHORTWAVE TO AID IN LIFT. RIGHT
NOW THE BEST GUESS IS THAT 1 TO 3 STORMS WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE THE
FORECAST OF 20-30 POPS WEST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO DFW TO
LAMPASAS. LOCAL OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE VALUES ARE FROM
2000-3000 J/KG OVER THE CWA AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS TO
SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM WHEN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
RAMPS UP JUST BEFORE THE SURFACE AIRMASS BECOMES TOO NEGATIVELY
BUOYANT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH
TO AFFECT LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE EAST BY MID-LATE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-20...BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL BE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE A BREEZY AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR THE REGION.
THE STORM THREAT FOR MONDAY IS LOOKING GREATER ACROSS A LARGER
PART OF NORTH TEXAS. THE CIN WILL BE EVEN WEAKER THAN TODAY AND
ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING STORM INITIATION IN THE
CWA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE ROUGHLY IN THE SAME LOCATION AS IT IS
TODAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CWA...WHICH RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SUPERCELL STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. EXPECT
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...INCLUDING
SOME ISOLATED CELLS ACROSS THE SW ZONES. VERY HIGH INSTABILITY
AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING GIANT HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GETS STRONGER AFTER 7PM WITH 0-3KM
SRH VALUES ABOVE 300 M2/S2. SINCE THERE IS LESS CIN THERE IS MORE
TIME FOR EVENING SUPERCELLS TO TAP INTO THIS INSTABILITY AFTER
DARK WHICH IS WHAT IS RAISING OUR CONCERN FOR TORNADOES. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN ZONES...AND
RAISED THEM FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES AS WELL...AS
SUPERCELLS WILL HEAD EASTWARD AND HOLD TOGETHER LONGER.
ON TUESDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA
FROM ROUGHLY PARIS TO DFW TO EASTLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THIS DAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE VERY HIGH
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SINCE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
RELAX A BIT...THESE STORMS MAY TEND TO ORGANIZE INTO A MCS/SQUALL
LINE OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES. OBVIOUSLY A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL EXIST WITH THIS CONVECTIVE EPISODE AS WELL. RAINFALL WILL
RANGE FROM A TRACE IN THE NW TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE EPISODE TO FINALLY EXHAUST THE ATMOSPHERE
AND PUSH THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY.
WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90
EACH DAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST
800MB WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING
A RUN AT THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SINCE THERE IS A LACK
OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE MID LEVELS...BELIEVE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NW ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS. WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 71 90 71 88 67 / 20 20 40 50 50
WACO, TX 72 90 72 91 68 / 10 10 20 40 60
PARIS, TX 70 87 69 83 65 / 20 10 60 50 50
DENTON, TX 70 89 69 86 64 / 30 30 40 40 40
MCKINNEY, TX 70 89 70 85 65 / 20 20 40 50 50
DALLAS, TX 73 91 73 89 69 / 10 20 40 50 50
TERRELL, TX 70 89 71 87 68 / 10 10 30 50 60
CORSICANA, TX 71 89 72 88 69 / 5 10 20 40 60
TEMPLE, TX 71 90 72 92 69 / 5 10 20 40 60
MINERAL WELLS, TX 70 94 68 88 65 / 20 30 30 40 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 192013
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
313 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...
THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS
WAKE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A COMPLEX
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS WINDING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES RIDING AROUND
AND UNDER THE LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THESE MID/UPPER LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMA SWINGING BY WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
LOCALLY...SO A DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LIFT WORKING ON THE DRY ATMOSPHERE FROM
ONE OF THESE WAVES COULD BRING A RISK OF MORE HEAT BURST ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT /LIKE
WE SAW A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO/ BUT IT APPEARS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUBDUED FROM WHAT WE SAW FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...THE THREAT FOR HEAT BURSTS SHOULD BE LOW.
INSTEAD...THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY /BUT LIGHT/
LATE TONIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH SAGS THROUGH. LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT
WITH LOWS BY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW ZONES
TO MID-60S SOUTHEAST...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRIEFLY RETURN.
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE PLEASANT...BUT GUSTY WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORNING
BOUNDARY MIXES OUT AND WE TAP HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN TODAY...THOUGH
COUPLED WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY...WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL VARY
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NEAR FRIONA TO AROUND THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK IN ASPERMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM...
INTIAL PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIKELY TO BE DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIP SKIRTING ACROSS THE NERN
ZONES...THE BEST CHANCE POSSIBLY COMING MONDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SWRN KS TO NWRN PANHANDLE THEN MOVING ESEWD.
NOT SOLD ON PRECIP EITHER DEVELOPING OR MAKING IT INTO THE FCST
AREA IF IT DOES...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. SOME HIGH
TERRAIN CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY BUT WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT MAKING POPS EVEN LESS LIKELY FOR THE FCST AREA. WILL GET
SOME RELIEF WITH TEMPS AS A COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY TUESDAY AND ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO
LOWER HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND STILL WITH SLIGHT CHC TO
CHANCE POPS AS ALTHOUGH UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR IT TO OF THE DIRTY VARIETY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PULLED BACK INTO THE AREA...MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY
ARRIVING FROM THE PACIFIC...AND A SLOSHING DRYLINE. THURSDAY NOW
LOOKING LIKE IT HAS AS MUCH POTENTIAL AS FRIDAY AND WILL NUDGE
THOSE POPS UP SIMILAR TO WHERE FRIDAYS ARE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY...DRY AND WARM TO HOT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WEST OF
THE DRYLINE WERE RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES WHERE
MANY RED FLAG MINUTES HAVE ALREADY BEEN TALLIED. HOWEVER...THIS
CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN WEAKENING A BIT AS OF LATE WITH
ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS...THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAIN VALID. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET EASING THE FIRE DANGER.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THOUGH SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH HUMIDITIES AGAIN FALLING TO AND BELOW 10
PERCENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BOUT OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE FA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN LIGHT
ALL DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 52 83 51 79 50 / 0 0 10 0 10
TULIA 53 87 54 80 55 / 0 0 10 0 10
PLAINVIEW 55 89 56 80 57 / 0 0 10 0 10
LEVELLAND 55 91 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 56 93 55 84 58 / 0 0 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 57 91 54 83 58 / 0 0 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 57 93 56 83 59 / 0 0 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 61 94 56 85 57 / 0 0 10 10 10
SPUR 60 98 60 84 60 / 0 0 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 65 101 63 89 62 / 0 0 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030.
&&
$$
23/07
000
FXUS64 KEWX 192008
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
308 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS S CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU WERE BECOMING MORE AGITATED ACROSS THE
WRN/NWRN HILL COUNTRY ALONG THE DRY LINE AND WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED EVENING STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. SPC HAS ALSO BROUGHT THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA DOWN INTO THE AREA...SO HAVE UPDATED THE HWO. THIS
CONVECTION WILL END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING NOT LONG AFTER
SUNSET. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE THRU MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE DRY
LINE SETTING OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WRN CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER AIR TROUGH AND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ARRIVE IN CENTRAL TX DURING MAX HEATING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH/CENTRAL TX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE MUCH OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK
AREA. WITH UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE WELL PAST
SUNSET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DECREASING POPS ON WEDNESDAY...AS
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND COOL NWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT
IN ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE DAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY LOOKS UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...SO HAVE GONE WITH
SILENT 5-10 PERCENT POPS AND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 94 73 94 72 / - - 10 30 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 93 72 94 71 / - - 10 30 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 94 71 95 70 / - - 10 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 94 71 92 70 / - 10 20 30 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 100 75 99 75 / - 10 20 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 93 71 93 71 / - - 10 30 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 97 72 97 72 / - - 10 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 93 72 94 71 / - - 10 30 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 93 75 93 74 / 10 - 10 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 94 73 94 72 / - - 10 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 73 95 73 / - - 10 20 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191952
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
152 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BREEZY EVENING THEN CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DRY AND
WARM TOMORROW WITH A BREEZY AFTERNOON AND HIGHS NEAR 90. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WILL TAKE TEMPS
DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR TUESDAY...THEN CLIMBING TO THE LOW AND MID
90S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY
EDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH SHORT WAVE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. VERY DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW
WITH HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE BROADER FLOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TAKING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY. OVERALL PATTERN WILL SHIFT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP MOISTURE WELL TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND TAKE OUR
AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT TO OUR EAST
FRIDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THE RESULTING PATTERN MAY BRING IN ENOUGH MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO ESTABLISH A DRY LINE OVER WEST TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. IF A DRY LINE DOES DEVELOP...IT WOULD LIKELY
OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE BIG BEND AREA AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THIS WOULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE GFS
AND THE EURO ARE NO LONGER IN AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL PATTERN
WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
THE EURO WOULD HAVE A DRIER SOLUTION WITH AN ELONGATED HIGH FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...BUT
THE GFS KEEPS THE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
FOR A WETTER SOLUTION. MADE NO CHANGES IN 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST
BECAUSE OF THE MODEL DISPARITY.
&&
.AVIATION...20/00Z-21/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. WEST WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AFT 02Z.
BECOMING BREEZY AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NM MONDAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LOW-END RED FLAG
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN A BELT EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN GILA REGION INTO SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTY. WINDS MAY STAY JUST
SHY OF CRITERIA IN SIERRA/EL PASO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES. ALSO DUE TO
TERRAIN EFFECTS...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER IN THE UPPER TULAROSA
BASIN EXCEPT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SAN ANDRES RANGE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT TEMPS
WILL VERY QUICKLY REBOUND BACK TO THE 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS ON
WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 68 91 67 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 62 91 59 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 59 88 55 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 59 86 54 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 65 40 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 85 58 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 53 80 50 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 55 86 52 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 53 84 51 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 67 89 64 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 55 86 52 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 64 92 62 91 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 56 80 55 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
FABENS 64 91 64 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 61 89 59 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 88 64 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 49 87 47 86 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
HATCH 57 84 58 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 87 58 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 58 89 55 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 52 74 46 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 44 73 41 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 43 73 39 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 48 75 45 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 56 79 53 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 55 83 55 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 48 75 45 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 57 80 51 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 48 84 47 88 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 39 79 37 84 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 54 82 51 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 57 86 53 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 54 85 53 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 58 87 55 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 82 50 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ111>113.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ055-056.
&&
$$
21/25
000
FXUS64 KMAF 191931
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THOSE FOR YESTERDAY DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE
DRYLINE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA AND GUSTY DRY WEST WINDS ARE
PREVAILING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER AS THE DRYLINE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK INTO ALL EXCEPT THE EASTERN FRINGES
OF THE CWA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR GDP FOR MONDAY FROM
LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS...700 MB WINDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THESE SOURCES INDICATE WEAKER WINDS AT 700 MB AND NOT MUCH MIXING
ABOVE THAT LEVEL. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE ALSO TRENDING DOWNWARD
IN WIND SPEEDS FOR GDP ON MONDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...IT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES WITH A NE WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS WEST
TEXAS WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. STARTING THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR ABOVE AVERAGE MORNING
LOWS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRECIP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 96 62 91 / 10 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 97 63 89 / 10 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 61 95 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 98 69 98 / 0 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 66 97 65 95 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 62 94 59 88 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 50 87 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 97 63 92 / 10 10 10 0
ODESSA TX 63 96 64 88 / 0 10 10 0
WINK TX 62 100 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
70/80
000
FXUS64 KBRO 191852
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
152 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST AS THE EARLY DOG DAYS SETTLE IN
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A SLOW BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST WILL BE
SLOW IN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE OF NOTE BELOW 925MB.
TONIGHT...MARINE LAYER TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND WITH STRATUS TO REFORM
AT AND BELOW THE SURFACE INVERSION SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
DEEPENING AND SPREADING NORTHWEST BY SUNRISE MONDAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER TIGHT TONIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT DECOUPLING
OF THE WINDS. THE CONSTANT MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZE AND DEVELOPING
OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OR IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY...MODELS SUGGEST AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS CONFIRM THAT
DRIER MID LAYER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LONE STAR STATE
INCLUDING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY KEEPING US RAIN FREE. SOME LIMITED
RELIEF IN THE HUMIDITY AS THE DRIER AIR MIXES OUT THE LOW TO MID 70
DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST BUT NOT SOAR TO HIGH WITH THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS A BIT
SUPPRESSED WITH THE TROUGH DOMINATING MORE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
MONDAY NIGHT...A REPEAT OF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
LITTLE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MODERATE LEVELS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
VERY WARM AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS BUILDS INLAND.
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY INTO TUESDAY KEEPING A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
BE CLOSE TO THE CWA. AT THIS TIME...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTH AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE
VALLEY ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S NEAR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MID WEEK WHILE THE
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL LOWER AND THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL INCREMENT ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY GIVING THE VALLEY ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN RATHER
TIGHT WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS TO BE JUST ON THE CUSP OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...20 KNOTS AND 7 FEET. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE STRONGER
SOUTHEAST FLOW. WINDS OVER THE BAY TO FALL JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNSET WITH STEADY STATE CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS. THE BROADENING OF THE WIND FETCH AND LONG DURATION
HAS BEEN BUILDING SEAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WITH THIS TREND
CONTINUING SEAS COULD APPROACH 7 FEET AS EARLY AS TONIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING POSTED OFFSHORE.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASE IN SEAS TUESDAY AS A LOW SURFACE PRESSURE STRENGTHENS DUE
TO A FRONT PUSHING SOUTH. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF BUT NO IMPACT EXPECTED FOR THE GULF
WATERS WITH SE WINDS CONTINUING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY WEAK AS
IT MOVES SOUTH...SO DO NOT EXPECT A DRASTIC CHANGE IN WINDS. A SCA
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK SEAS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FEET AS RIDGE BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND CENTERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS NO MORE THAT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 5 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 78 86 / 0 0 0 10
BROWNSVILLE 77 91 78 90 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 76 94 77 93 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 77 96 77 95 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 81 75 85 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
60/67
000
FXUS64 KAMA 191838 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
138 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
LOWERED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PANHANDLES IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. ALSO EXPANDED THE
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. CU FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SHOWERS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST NM.
MOST GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OK AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON BENEATH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 40S WILL KEEP MLCAPES BELOW 1000 J/KG /HIGHER INSTABILITY
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE SHOULD DECREASE AS DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT/...THEREBY MINIMIZING THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. HOWEVER WITH MLCAPES OF 500-900 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-40 KTS /AND A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/...COULD
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE A LITTLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH REMARK
AT KDHT AND KGUY FROM 20-01Z. IF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS DO APPROACH
THESE TERMINALS...BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KAMA.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON AT KAMA WHERE
SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO AOB
10 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE PLAINS YESTERDAY
WILL BE STICKING AROUND FOR A LITTLE WHILE BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST
ENOUGH TO LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL.
THIS MORNING THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN RETREATING WESTWARD AS EXPECTED
BUT WILL STAY EAST OF ITS INITIAL POSITION YESTERDAY. THIS WILL MEAN
THAT ONCE THE SUN COMES UP IT WILL SURGE EAST OF THE AREA. BUT
BEHIND THE DRYLINE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE PANHANDLES
TO KEEP US COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MUCH COOLER FOR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE TO TAKE THE GOOD WITH
BAD AS THE COLD FRONT COULD SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONSIDERABLE CAP FOR THE MAJORITY THE
PANHANDLES TO LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE DOES LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE
SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LINE UP AND OVERCOME THE CAP
ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THESE FACTORS ARE: A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...THE MERGER OF
THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE...AND MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG. IF ANY ONE OF THESE FACTORS IS OFFSET FROM THE OTHERS THEN
FEW OR NO STORMS MAY FORM. WITH THAT BEING SAID IF THEY DO LINE
UP THEN WE COULD EASILY SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE UNCERTAINLY OF
THE SEVERAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE
LOW HOWEVER...SHOULD SEVERE STORMS FORM THE MAIN THREAT AREA WOULD
BE EAST OF A TURPIN TO CANADIAN LINE BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.
FIRE CONCERNS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE BETTER PART OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. SPECIFICALLY RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE
ELEVATED FIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT
FOR NOW EXPECTED THEM TO REMAIN BELOW STRONG CRITERIA.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY BEFORE AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW SENDS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE. THESE SHORTWAVES
COULD BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT WHILE 20 FOOT WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST INCREASES TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT. NORTHWEST TO WEST
20 FOOT WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. BOTH ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END AFTER
9 PM THIS EVENING.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE WHILE WEST 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AFTER MONDAY EVENING
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/02
000
FXUS64 KAMA 191751
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE A LITTLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH REMARK
AT KDHT AND KGUY FROM 20-01Z. IF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS DO APPROACH
THESE TERMINALS...BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KAMA.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON AT KAMA WHERE
SOME GUSTS OVER 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO AOB
10 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE PLAINS YESTERDAY
WILL BE STICKING AROUND FOR A LITTLE WHILE BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST
ENOUGH TO LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL.
THIS MORNING THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN RETREATING WESTWARD AS EXPECTED
BUT WILL STAY EAST OF ITS INITIAL POSITION YESTERDAY. THIS WILL MEAN
THAT ONCE THE SUN COMES UP IT WILL SURGE EAST OF THE AREA. BUT
BEHIND THE DRYLINE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE PANHANDLES
TO KEEP US COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MUCH COOLER FOR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE TO TAKE THE GOOD WITH
BAD AS THE COLD FRONT COULD SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONSIDERABLE CAP FOR THE MAJORITY THE
PANHANDLES TO LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE DOES LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE
SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LINE UP AND OVERCOME THE CAP
ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THESE FACTORS ARE: A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...THE MERGER OF
THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE...AND MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG. IF ANY ONE OF THESE FACTORS IS OFFSET FROM THE OTHERS THEN
FEW OR NO STORMS MAY FORM. WITH THAT BEING SAID IF THEY DO LINE
UP THEN WE COULD EASILY SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE UNCERTAINLY OF
THE SEVERAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE
LOW HOWEVER...SHOULD SEVERE STORMS FORM THE MAIN THREAT AREA WOULD
BE EAST OF A TURPIN TO CANADIAN LINE BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.
FIRE CONCERNS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE BETTER PART OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. SPECIFICALLY RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE
ELEVATED FIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT
FOR NOW EXPECTED THEM TO REMAIN BELOW STRONG CRITERIA.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY BEFORE AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW SENDS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE. THESE SHORTWAVES
COULD BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT WHILE 20 FOOT WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST INCREASES TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT. NORTHWEST TO WEST
20 FOOT WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. BOTH ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END AFTER
9 PM THIS EVENING.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE WHILE WEST 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AFTER MONDAY EVENING
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/02
000
FXUS64 KCRP 191750 AAC
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
25-30 KTS FOR CRP/ALI/VCT WHERE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL EXIST. MAY SEE SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS AT CRP. WINDS AT LRD
TO RANGE 15-20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR CRP/VCT/ALI. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH MID MORNING MONDAY...WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY
BECOMING VFR BY 16-18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...INCREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS AS 12Z KCRP SOUNDING
SHOWED STRONGER WINDS THAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE UP TO 38 KTS. HOWEVER...AM NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND NEAR
SHORE WATERS SOUTH PORT ARANSAS FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF EXTENDING THE SCA IN AREA. HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND WATERS WHERE THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER THIS MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY WITH GUSTS AOA 30 KNOTS AT ALI/CRP/VCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS EXPECTED NOT TO BE AS STRONG AT
LRD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 01Z WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALI/CRP/VCT THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW HAS
BROUGHT STRATUS INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. AS WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT STRATUS TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING ONCE
MIXING COMMENCES AND SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. FORECAST REMAINS
SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AS WARM AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. MORE HAZE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF
SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNING OVER MEXICO. CONVECTION NOT LIKELY
TODAY AS WELL WITH 700MB TEMPS AOA 12 TO 13 DEGREES C SO WILL KEEP
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. MORE STRATUS EXPECTED THIS UPCOMING
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN THE 70S IN ALL LOCATIONS.
PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A BENIGN SUMMERTIME
PATTERN STILL EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH CAPPING INVERSION THE RULE THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. THE ONE CAVEAT IS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT COINCIDENT WITH MOISTURE
POOLING AND THETA E RIDGE. STILL UNSURE ABOUT CAP STRENGTH
AT THIS TIME 700MB TEMPS THOUGH COOLING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 11
DEGREES WEST...STILL WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER A CAP. THE
CANADIAN MODEL HOWEVER WOULD INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. 850
TEMPS STILL QUITE WARM AS WELL.
OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN QUIET. HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
GRADUALLY COOL A DEGREE OR TWO BY LATE WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH PERIOD WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND MILD
MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 92 76 91 76 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 89 74 90 74 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 101 78 102 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 95 74 96 75 93 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 77 86 76 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 100 75 99 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 92 76 92 76 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 84 76 86 75 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
CB/85...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KEWX 191747
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
WE ARE IN A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25. MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO AUS...
SAT...AND SSF TONIGHT AROUND 06Z. VFR WILL RETURN LATE MORNING
MONDAY. DRT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ABOVE NORMAL HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE LEADING
SHORTWAVE AS PART OF A TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
US HAS TRENDED DEEPER AND ENHANCED THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER W
TX. THIS TREND DOES NOT APPEAR TO SHOW MUCH IMPACT ON THE WEATHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER
THE NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE WOULD GO UNNOTICED IF
NOT FOR AN ISOLATED BATCH OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE FEATURE APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO LEAVE UNACCOUNTED FOR
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE
UPDATE TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
COUNTIES.
MODEL FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE DRY LAYER TO THE WEST ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THOSE OF SATURDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE
TRIPLE DIGITS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE AND NEAR PERSISTENCE HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 90S FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEING REDUCED IN PART FROM THE DRY SLOT...POPS ARE LEFT AS SILENT
10S FOR THIS EVENING. ALOFT...THE TAP TO THE PACIFIC TROPICS IS
ONLY TEMPORARILY BROKEN...AND SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE DRY-LINE IN TIME FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MEANWHILE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE
SLOWLY IN THE ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION IS LEFT AS AN EVENING EVENT FOR NOW...BUT
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO NW TX COULD PRESENT SOME
ADDED LIFT TO EXTEND THE CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
CONNECT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE DRY SLOT COULD BECOME A FACTOR...GIVEN THE SHALLOW BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SO THE POPS ARE MOSTLY LOW CHANCE TO REFLECT
CONTINUED POOR CONFIDENCE. THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOWS THE ONLY
PATTERN THAT MODELS SHOW A GOOD CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
A POSSIBLE WEAK FRONT TO PROVIDE A FOCUS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND
DYNAMICS ALOFT FAVOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER EAST TX AND TAPERING
OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH NOT A
GREAT SIGNAL ON DIURNAL TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...WE WOULD ONLY
SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS AND COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. RUN-TO-RUN
MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD RAIN EVENT. THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS ALSO
PESSIMISTIC IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER TX WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE OVER TX...AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 93 74 93 71 / 10 10 10 20 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 91 72 91 69 / 10 10 10 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 93 72 93 70 / 10 10 10 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 91 70 90 68 / 10 10 10 20 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 101 74 99 73 / 10 20 20 10 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 90 70 90 69 / 10 10 10 20 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 97 72 96 70 / 10 10 10 20 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 90 73 91 71 / 10 10 10 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 91 76 92 74 / 10 - - 20 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 93 74 94 71 / 10 10 10 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 74 93 71 / 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31
000
FXUS64 KMAF 191741
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 19/18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CAVU CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 20/18Z.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS (WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS) THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
AROUND MID MORNING MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS MOSTLY
5-10KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AND AT LEAST
BRIEFLY NEAR 20KTS AFTER 20Z AT MAF/INK/PEQ. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. THIS LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO CANADA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND
WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS NEAR CDS. IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS BY THAT NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S BUT BELOW 100 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. DRYLINE MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM COOLING MUCH BUT ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
HEAT QUICKLY. WILL GO WELL OVER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY
STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
THE WEST WIND LOOKS TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED ALSO NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24HRS AGO AS
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP SOMEWHAT. MODEL QPF STILL DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
MUCH LESS COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAY BE NEAR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT GDP ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... HAVE PUSHED WIND SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING.
FIRE WEATHER...
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
5KFT WILL COME OUT FROM VAN HORN TO THE GDP MTNS ALONG/NEAR I-20.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SE NM AND THE
NW PB AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN THE 5KFT THERE. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO A WARNING ELSEWHERE...FOR THE MOST WINDS ACROSS THE PB WILL BE
15-25 MPH AND 15-30 IN THE GDP MTNS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ALONG
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
70
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191737
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES CURRENTLY WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND. THERE ARE A FEW CLOUDS COMING IN OFF THE GULF...NOT
SURE CLOUD HEIGHTS ON THOSE...BUT WILL KNOW SHORTLY AS THEY COME
ASHORE. LOW CEILINGS FROM LAST NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY 1000 TO
1500 FOOT DECK...MIXED OUT BETWEEN 13 UTC AND 15 UTC...OR 08 TO 10
CDT...THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...WITH SIMILAR FLOW PATTERN AND
MOISTURE PROFILES...EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH THE FORMATION OF
A STRATUS DECK AFTER SUNSET. IN ANYTHING...LOW DECK COULD DEVELOP
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER...GIVEN LACK OF CIRRUS THAT WE HAD LAST
NIGHT...AND HAVE INDICATED THAT IN THE TAF. MONDAY...SHOULD SEE
LOWER DECK MIX OUT AGAIN...ABOUT THE SAME TIMING. 46
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD CAP OVERHEAD OF SE TX THIS MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE CAP WERE DISSIPATING AT 10 AM AND
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE SURFACE TO 700 MB RIDGE WAS KEEPING A FAIRLY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. THE MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO ERODE MUCH OF THE CAP...BUT THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION ABOVE 850 MB TO LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. DO LIKE THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH GOES ABOVE THE
GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE SMOKE AND HAZE
APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND WOULD EXPECT THIS GIVEN THAT
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE HAS NOT MOVED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 73 92 73 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 73 91 73 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 73 79 74 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBRO 191734 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MORNING MARINE STRATUS LAYER CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE
AS DRY AIR MIXES TO THE SURFACE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW-SCT
SKIES EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE HANGING AROUND BUT STRONG SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AIDING
TO DISPERSE THE SMOKE KEEPING VISIBILITIES RESTRICTIONS 4 TO 6
MILES WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TO BETTER THEN 6 MILES BEFORE 20Z. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS IN TACT WITH MARINE LAYER REFORMING
OVERNIGHT AND SOME SMOKE SETTLING RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES ONCE
AGAIN BETWEEN 4 AND 6 MILES. CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND APPROACH IFR BY
MONDAY MORNING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS SOUTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS TO MIX OUT THE STRATUS AND HAZE BEFORE 17Z
MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ABOUT THE SAME
TIME FRAME WITH GUSTS OF 24 TO 28KTS EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT A BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK AT AROUND
1800 TO 2200 FT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE ARE JUST WEST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLES
REGION WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
SUBTROPICAL JET IS ORIENTED OVER THE SIERRA MADRES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RESULTS IN MODERATE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
GULF...AND A DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND WEAK LEE
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST.
TODAY...A SENSIBLE WEATHER REPEAT OF SATURDAY IS BASICALLY EXPECTED.
THE WIND DIRECTION MAY BE ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES WEST OF WHAT WE SAW
ON SATURDAY WHICH MAY WARM THINGS UP SLIGHTLY MORE...BUT OVERALL NOT
A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE. CLOUD COVER EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S
EAST...LOW 100S WEST. WIND SPEEDS SOUTH BE ABOUT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 35 MPH RANGE AT PEAK. CURRENT AND PROJECTED GRADIENT
AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONDITIONS BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
FOR TODAY. DRIER AIR AT 850MB AND VICINITY SHOULD MIX DOWN WELL
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUR HEAT INDEX AT ABOUT 100 TO 103 EVEN IN THE
WARMEST SPOTS. AGRICULTURAL FIRES FROM THE YUCATAN WILL KEEP HAZE IN
THE AIR THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT...HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING. A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE WILL ALSO KEEP UP OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINT AND CLOUD COVER AS
WELL AS PERSISTENT WIND WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY...WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED A BIT. ABOUT A 3 TO 4 MPH DECREASE IN WIND
SPEED WHICH WILL STILL BE BREEZY BY ANY ACCOUNT. THE DRIER NEAR SFC
AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND KEEPING PM HUMIDITY SOMEWHAT IN CHECK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR NEAR 90 ALONG 77 AND NEAR 100 IN
ZAPATA COUNTY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...INITIALLY A LARGE
CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING AROUND THE
BOTTOM OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON TUES AND WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WED.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY POOL OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TX AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SOME ISOLD CONV TO FIRE OFF
TUES AND WED WITH ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OVER SOUTHERN TX AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. AFTER
THIS FEATURE EXITS THE REGION MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE STABILITY OF THE ATMS AND
DECREASE OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS.
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND CMC ALL POINT
TOWARDS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING FO THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. GOOD RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT SHOWS UP WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL MEX MOS CYCLES. THE ECMWF TEMPS AND POPS ARE ALSO TURNING
UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS NUMBERS. SO WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF NUMBERS DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONGER TERM WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE
THIS MORNING.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER DURING THE DAY ON THE OPEN GULF WATERS. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT ON
THE GULF WATERS BEFORE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PGF WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY
STRONG OVER THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THE PGF WILL LIKELY RELAX
A LITTLE BIT ON WED AND THURS AS THE 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARDS. ACCORDINGLY THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A LOWER
PROBABILITY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
59/67
000
FXUS64 KLUB 191729
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1229 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. VFR WILL
PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
UPDATE...
MOISTURE THAT BRIEFLY INVADED THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS QUICKLY MIXED/ADVECTED EASTWARD LEAVING
DRY...WARM AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE BREEZES IN ITS WAKE. HUMIDITY
LEVELS HAVE ALREADY PLUNGED TO 15 PERCENT OR LOWER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA...AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15-25+ MPH WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 02Z. ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH SUNSET. ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS...THOUGH DID OPT TO EXPAND THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FA NOT ENCOMPASSED BY THE RED FLAG
WARNING. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO DAYS.
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT. A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH
NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE KEEPING THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SEEN AREAWIDE
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR RED FLAG MINUTES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MAKING A SLOW PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT...VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS IN TERMS OF AIRMASS
MODIFICATION OR WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN UPON ITS
APPROACH. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST QUICKLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS BACK NORTH.
LONG TERM...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF US ACROSS
NRN NE AND SRN SD BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH AXIS ROTATING
AROUND THE FEATURE BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOW WILL ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD YIELDING A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUT WEST ON MONDAY BUT INTENSITY OF
CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE WANING OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS
WEEKEND WITH NO KNOWN STARTS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN INTO OUR
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF
NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMING ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY
THURSDAY...RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY FROM MEXICO TO ALASKA AND
SERVE TO BLOCK THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM LEAVING WEST TEXAS
IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FORTUNATELY...THIS RIDGE WILL
BE OF THE DIRTY PERSUASION PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS LATE THIS WEEK
WITH RAINFALL CHANCES.
DRYLINE WILL LARGELY STAY OUT EAST OR BEYOND THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
THOUGH WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT GIVING A BIT OF
RELIEF OF THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A DRY FROPA BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE KNOCKED BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HONEST MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDERWAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH DAY 10. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS A SLUG OF BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE CONVERGE OVER
THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF
A QUITAQUE TO LAKEVIEW LINE...WHILE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DRY AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...PRODUCING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE THE QUESTION MARK AS
HIGHEST WIND MAXIMUM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A CHILDRESS TO MATADOR LINE
AS MARGINAL WINDS ALOFT HAVE A LONGER DISTANCE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL ALSO ISSUE AN RFD FOR COCHRAN THROUGH LUBBOCK COUNTIES
AS WIND MAXIMUM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONCERNS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH SUB 10 PCT RH VALUES. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 83 51 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 56 88 55 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 57 90 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 57 90 56 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 58 92 57 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 61 90 56 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 60 92 55 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 60 95 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 63 96 61 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 65 100 66 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030.
&&
$$
23/07/23
000
FXUS64 KFWD 191718 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...WIND GUSTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT MOST GUSTS WILL BE 34
KNOTS OR LESS BUT COULD SEE A FEW AIRPORTS REPORT 35 KNOTS OFF AND
ON DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF THEY GO HIGHER....THEN WE WILL LIKELY
ISSUE AND AWW FOR KDFW. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR THE
EVENING HOURS BUT COULD CRANK UP AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 06Z AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS.
WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
RETURN AROUND 10Z AT KACT AND BY 11Z ACROSS THE METROPLEX.
BURN-OFF TIME SHOULD AGAIN BE 16-17Z.
THE DRYLINE OUT WEST IS NOW PUSHING EASTWARD AND WE DO EXPECT SOME
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WE
EXPECT THE STORMS TO REMAIN WEST OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID
EVENING HOURS...THEN DIE OFF. 75
&&
.UPDATE...
DRYLINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE EAST TODAY AS MID LEVEL
WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WESTERLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LAST
NIGHT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
ENTER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE DRYLINE WILL BE
IN THE CWA...THE ONLY CHALLENGE IN THIS FORECAST IS DETERMINING
WHETHER CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR...AND IF IT DOES...THE
EXTENT OF THE COVERAGE. 12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT CAPPING HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO LIFT FROM
YESTERDAY/S SHORTWAVE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOIST ADVECTION IN PLACE TODAY AND DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN
THE 63 TO 66 DEGREE RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION IN THE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER MANY MORE MODELS ARE FAILING
TO SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS FAR SOUTH TODAY. YESTERDAY
INITIATION WAS VERY LIMITED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WHEN THE
GUIDANCE WAS SPLIT ROUGHLY IN HALF BETWEEN ALL CLEAR AND STORMS.
TODAY THAT DROPS TO LESS THAN A FIFTH OF MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.
PART OF THE ISSUE TODAY IS THE LACK OF A SHORTWAVE TO HELP ENHANCE
THE LIFT AT PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS
PRESENT...LIKELY DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS...WHICH DOES CONTRIBUTE TO VERY SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS BETWEEN 18 AND 0Z. WHAT I SUSPECT IS THE MORE LIKELY
ISSUE TODAY ARE THE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS BELOW 700MB WHICH CAUSES
MORE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO INFANT UPDRAFTS AND TENDS TO CAUSE
TOWERING CUMULUS TO LEAN OVER AND STRUGGLE TO GROW INTO STORMS.
BECAUSE ANY UPDRAFT THAT DOES MANAGE TO OVERCOME THIS IMPEDANCE
WILL LIKELY BECOME A SEVERE SUPERCELL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EVEN IF THIS
PROBABILITY IS TECHNICALLY TOO HIGH FOR THIS SITUATION.
THE HRRR/RUC/GFS ARE THE MODELS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEY SHOW ACTIVITY AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN
SABA. THUS WILL UPDATE TO STRETCH THE LOW POPS DOWN INTO THE SW
CWA. FURTHERMORE...ANY SUPERCELL STORM THAT DOES GET GOING WILL
HAVE LESS CIN TO COMPETE WITH AS THEY HEAD EAST TODAY...AND WILL
STRETCH THE LOW POPS AND MENTION OF SEVERE WX A COUNTY OR SO
FARTHER EAST. THIS MEANS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX
COULD BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD A SUPERCELL
DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE MAIN THREATS TODAY ARE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 6PM AND 8PM WHEN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
BEGIN TO ENLARGE JUST BEFORE SURFACE BASED CIN BECOMES TOO HIGH
DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
ACTIVE REGION OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER THIS MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH INTO TEXAS
ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN
CONCERN WOULD BE THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY DUE TO A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS MAY GUST AT TIMES TO AT OR ABOVE 30
MPH...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY.
LATER TODAY...STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY INITIATE WEST OF THE REGION
ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EAST TO WITHIN
20-40 MILES OF THE WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WOULD BRING ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
CAUSES THE STORMS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SPARSE ONCE AGAIN IN TEXAS WITH HIGHER COVERAGE EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WILL GO
WITH 20 POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION WITH A SMALL AREA OF 30 POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AGAIN ON MONDAY. POPS WILL BE SIMILAR ON
MONDAY AS TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS GENERALLY NORTH OF
I-20 AND WEST OF I-35.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ONGOING NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT OUTFLOW FROM
ONGOING ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH...AND THE ADVANCING DRYLINE FROM THE
WEST...SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....ALLOWING RAIN
CHANCES TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH DECREASING POTENTIAL FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST DUE IN LARGE PART TO TIME OF DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY
REPLACED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. 30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 72 89 72 89 / 10 20 10 20 40
WACO, TX 92 73 90 73 92 / 5 10 5 10 20
PARIS, TX 89 70 87 70 83 / 10 20 10 40 40
DENTON, TX 92 71 89 70 87 / 10 30 20 30 40
MCKINNEY, TX 91 71 88 71 86 / 10 20 10 30 40
DALLAS, TX 92 74 90 74 91 / 10 10 10 20 40
TERRELL, TX 91 71 89 73 90 / 5 10 10 20 30
CORSICANA, TX 91 72 89 73 91 / 5 5 5 10 20
TEMPLE, TX 91 73 90 73 92 / 5 5 5 10 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 96 70 92 71 92 / 20 20 20 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
75/
000
FXUS64 KSJT 191709
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1209 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AREAS OF STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND
HEARTLAND SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE TERMINALS VFR DUE TO
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
21
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/
AVIATION...
KSJT AND KDYS RADAR VAD INDICATED A 45-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AT
3000 MSL AT 11Z. WILL MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KABI AND
KSJT 14-15Z...AS WINDS WERE LIGHT AT THE SURFACE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 28 KTS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AT KABI AND KSJT
AS THE WINDS PARTIALLY MIX DOWN. STRATUS OTHERWISE WAS
APPROACHING KJCT AT 11Z...AND WILL PUT A MVFR BROKEN CIG UNTIL
15Z. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR A DRYLINE AT KABI AND KBBD
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO SMALL TO PUT IN TAFS.
MVFR STRATUS MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE WILL BE MOVING ALONG A SONORA...SAN ANGELO...ABILENE...
THROCKMORTON LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GFS SB CAPES ARE OVER 3000
J/KG WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEARS OF 40 KTS...JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. STILL
QUESTIONABLE IN HOW MUCH CAPPING WILL EXIST...BUT WITH STRONG
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING.
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
EAST ALONG AND EAST OF A HASKELL...ABILENE...COLEMAN...BROWNWOOD
LINE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE...BUT HIGH BASES SHOULD LIMIT THE
TORNADO THREAT. WENT CLOSE TO SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS HOWEVER SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER
THAN THIS MORNING...DUE TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS AND LESS MIXING.
04
LONG TERM...
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CWA MONDAY MORNING...ERODING BEFORE 12Z UNDER STRONG INSOLATION.
THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP IN THE VICINITY OF AN ABILENE TO SAN ANGELO LINE. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S /WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. THE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE /EAST OF THE DRYLINE/ WILL
YIELD MLCAPE VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 3000 J/KG. I ANTICIPATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR
CONVECTION AS WINDS IN THE MOIST SECTOR BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PROG 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF
35-40 KTS BY 00Z MONDAY EVENING.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...MEANING THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. I THINK CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ISOLATED WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING NORTH OF THE COLORADO RIVER.
WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE BEING SUPERCELLS...THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HODOGRAPHS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR A SMALL TORNADO THREAT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES. HOWEVER...ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO WANE AS IT WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. HOWEVER...PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER CAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. I STILL THINK
WE WILL SEE GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH PRECIP CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE FORECAST
IS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED TO OUR WEST
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...REPLACED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST FOR A FEW DAYS. THE
ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WESTERN SHIFT OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPS UNDER 100
DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
SNEAK ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK.
THIS HOT AND DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL POTENTIALLY MOVE INTO
THE BIG COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT. I INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL. THE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE WEEKEND PATTERN WITH THE GFS SHOWING
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE ECMWF SUGGESTING CONTINUING SOUTHWEST
TO WEST FLOW. THE LATER WOULD BE PREFERABLE FOR PRECIP CHANCES BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH EITHER AT THIS TIME.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYLINE WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG A SONORA...SAN ANGELO...
ABILENE...THROCKMORTON LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE...
AS RH VALUES FALL INTO THE TEENS. AREAS IN THE BIG COUNTRY...WEST
OF AN ABILENE TO THROCKMORTON LINE...WILL SEE NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES...AS 20 FOOT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH DEVELOP.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
BE 2 TO 4 MPH LOWER.
04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 97 69 97 69 90 / 20 20 10 10 20
SAN ANGELO 100 69 99 70 94 / 5 5 10 10 10
JUNCTION 95 70 96 72 95 / 10 10 20 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 191629 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
MOISTURE THAT BRIEFLY INVADED THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS QUICKLY MIXED/ADVECTED EASTWARD LEAVING
DRY...WARM AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE BREEZES IN ITS WAKE. HUMIDITY
LEVELS HAVE ALREADY PLUNGED TO 15 PERCENT OR LOWER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA...AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO TUMBLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15-25+ MPH WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE STRONGEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 02Z. ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER...BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH SUNSET. ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS...THOUGH DID OPT TO EXPAND THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FA NOT ENCOMPASSED BY THE RED FLAG
WARNING. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS
A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS MOVING IN AROUND FL120.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO DAYS.
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT. A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH
NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE KEEPING THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SEEN AREAWIDE
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR RED FLAG MINUTES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MAKING A SLOW PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT...VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS IN TERMS OF AIRMASS
MODIFICATION OR WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN UPON ITS
APPROACH. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST QUICKLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS BACK NORTH.
LONG TERM...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF US ACROSS
NRN NE AND SRN SD BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH AXIS ROTATING
AROUND THE FEATURE BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOW WILL ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD YIELDING A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUT WEST ON MONDAY BUT INTENSITY OF
CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE WANING OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS
WEEKEND WITH NO KNOWN STARTS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN INTO OUR
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF
NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMING ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY
THURSDAY...RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY FROM MEXICO TO ALASKA AND
SERVE TO BLOCK THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM LEAVING WEST TEXAS
IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FORTUNATELY...THIS RIDGE WILL
BE OF THE DIRTY PERSUASION PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS LATE THIS WEEK
WITH RAINFALL CHANCES.
DRYLINE WILL LARGELY STAY OUT EAST OR BEYOND THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
THOUGH WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT GIVING A BIT OF
RELIEF OF THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A DRY FROPA BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE KNOCKED BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HONEST MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDERWAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH DAY 10. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS A SLUG OF BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE CONVERGE OVER
THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF
A QUITAQUE TO LAKEVIEW LINE...WHILE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DRY AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...PRODUCING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE THE QUESTION MARK AS
HIGHEST WIND MAXIMUM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A CHILDRESS TO MATADOR LINE
AS MARGINAL WINDS ALOFT HAVE A LONGER DISTANCE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL ALSO ISSUE AN RFD FOR COCHRAN THROUGH LUBBOCK COUNTIES
AS WIND MAXIMUM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONCERNS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH SUB 10 PCT RH VALUES. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 87 55 83 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 92 56 88 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 91 57 90 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 92 57 90 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 93 58 92 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 90 61 90 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 93 60 92 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 97 60 95 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 97 63 96 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 100 65 100 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030.
&&
$$
23/99
000
FXUS64 KCRP 191616 AAB
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1116 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...INCREASED WINDS IN THE GRIDS AS 12Z KCRP SOUNDING
SHOWED STRONGER WINDS THAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE UP TO 38 KTS. HOWEVER...AM NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND NEAR
SHORE WATERS SOUTH PORT ARANSAS FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF EXTENDING THE SCA IN AREA. HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND WATERS WHERE THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER THIS MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY WITH GUSTS AOA 30 KNOTS AT ALI/CRP/VCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS EXPECTED NOT TO BE AS STRONG AT
LRD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 01Z WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALI/CRP/VCT THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW HAS
BROUGHT STRATUS INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. AS WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT STRATUS TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING ONCE
MIXING COMMENCES AND SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. FORECAST REMAINS
SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AS WARM AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. MORE HAZE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF
SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNING OVER MEXICO. CONVECTION NOT LIKELY
TODAY AS WELL WITH 700MB TEMPS AOA 12 TO 13 DEGREES C SO WILL KEEP
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. MORE STRATUS EXPECTED THIS UPCOMING
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN THE 70S IN ALL LOCATIONS.
PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A BENIGN SUMMERTIME
PATTERN STILL EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH CAPPING INVERSION THE RULE THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. THE ONE CAVEAT IS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT COINCIDENT WITH MOISTURE
POOLING AND THETA E RIDGE. STILL UNSURE ABOUT CAP STRENGTH
AT THIS TIME 700MB TEMPS THOUGH COOLING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 11
DEGREES WEST...STILL WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER A CAP. THE
CANADIAN MODEL HOWEVER WOULD INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. 850
TEMPS STILL QUITE WARM AS WELL.
OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN QUIET. HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
GRADUALLY COOL A DEGREE OR TWO BY LATE WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH PERIOD WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND MILD
MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 92 76 91 76 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 89 74 90 74 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 101 78 102 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 95 74 96 75 93 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 77 86 76 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 100 75 99 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 92 76 92 76 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 84 76 86 75 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
CB/85...SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KFWD 191559
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1059 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
DRYLINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE EAST TODAY AS MID LEVEL
WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE WESTERLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LAST
NIGHT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
ENTER THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE DRYLINE WILL BE
IN THE CWA...THE ONLY CHALLENGE IN THIS FORECAST IS DETERMINING
WHETHER CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR...AND IF IT DOES...THE
EXTENT OF THE COVERAGE. 12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS THAT CAPPING HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO LIFT FROM
YESTERDAY/S SHORTWAVE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL
MOIST ADVECTION IN PLACE TODAY AND DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN
THE 63 TO 66 DEGREE RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION IN THE CWA TODAY. HOWEVER MANY MORE MODELS ARE FAILING
TO SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS FAR SOUTH TODAY. YESTERDAY
INITIATION WAS VERY LIMITED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WHEN THE
GUIDANCE WAS SPLIT ROUGHLY IN HALF BETWEEN ALL CLEAR AND STORMS.
TODAY THAT DROPS TO LESS THAN A FIFTH OF MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.
PART OF THE ISSUE TODAY IS THE LACK OF A SHORTWAVE TO HELP ENHANCE
THE LIFT AT PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS
PRESENT...LIKELY DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS...WHICH DOES CONTRIBUTE TO VERY SLIGHT
HEIGHT FALLS BETWEEN 18 AND 0Z. WHAT I SUSPECT IS THE MORE LIKELY
ISSUE TODAY ARE THE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS BELOW 700MB WHICH CAUSES
MORE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO INFANT UPDRAFTS AND TENDS TO CAUSE
TOWERING CUMULUS TO LEAN OVER AND STRUGGLE TO GROW INTO STORMS.
BECAUSE ANY UPDRAFT THAT DOES MANAGE TO OVERCOME THIS IMPEDANCE
WILL LIKELY BECOME A SEVERE SUPERCELL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EVEN IF THIS
PROBABILITY IS TECHNICALLY TOO HIGH FOR THIS SITUATION.
THE HRRR/RUC/GFS ARE THE MODELS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEY SHOW ACTIVITY AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN
SABA. THUS WILL UPDATE TO STRETCH THE LOW POPS DOWN INTO THE SW
CWA. FURTHERMORE...ANY SUPERCELL STORM THAT DOES GET GOING WILL
HAVE LESS CIN TO COMPETE WITH AS THEY HEAD EAST TODAY...AND WILL
STRETCH THE LOW POPS AND MENTION OF SEVERE WX A COUNTY OR SO
FARTHER EAST. THIS MEANS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX
COULD BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD A SUPERCELL
DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE MAIN THREATS TODAY ARE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 6PM AND 8PM WHEN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
BEGIN TO ENLARGE JUST BEFORE SURFACE BASED CIN BECOMES TOO HIGH
DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING.
TR.92
&&
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...STRATUS...GUSTY WINDS...CONVECTION NORTHWEST.
A FINGER OF STRATUS HAS MADE ITS WAY UP THE I-35 CORRIDOR...RIDING
A 50-KT LLJ. THE LAYER IS RATHER THIN...AND WITH THE VIGOROUS
WINDS FRAGMENTING THE STRATUS...HAVE CHOSEN TO CARRY TEMPO GROUPS
AT ALL SITES. AS THESE WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE MID TO LATE
MORNING...SOME GUSTS MAY EXCEED 35KTS. EXPECT THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED ALTHOUGH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WELL
WEST/NORTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES. THE STEERING FLOW WILL HAVE
MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH MAY ALLOW STORMS TO POSE
GREATER IMPACTS TO NORTHWEST ARRIVALS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
GENERALLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
NOCTURNAL STRATUS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION NORTHWEST. STRATUS MAY
ARRIVE A BIT EARLIER MONDAY MORNING.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
ACTIVE REGION OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER THIS MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH INTO TEXAS
ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN
CONCERN WOULD BE THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY DUE TO A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS MAY GUST AT TIMES TO AT OR ABOVE 30
MPH...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY.
LATER TODAY...STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY INITIATE WEST OF THE REGION
ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EAST TO WITHIN
20-40 MILES OF THE WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WOULD BRING ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
CAUSES THE STORMS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SPARSE ONCE AGAIN IN TEXAS WITH HIGHER COVERAGE EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WILL GO
WITH 20 POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION WITH A SMALL AREA OF 30 POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AGAIN ON MONDAY. POPS WILL BE SIMILAR ON
MONDAY AS TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS GENERALLY NORTH OF
I-20 AND WEST OF I-35.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ONGOING NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT OUTFLOW FROM
ONGOING ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH...AND THE ADVANCING DRYLINE FROM THE
WEST...SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....ALLOWING RAIN
CHANCES TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH DECREASING POTENTIAL FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST DUE IN LARGE PART TO TIME OF DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY
REPLACED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 72 89 72 89 / 10 20 10 20 40
WACO, TX 92 73 90 73 92 / 5 10 5 10 20
PARIS, TX 89 70 87 70 83 / 10 20 10 40 40
DENTON, TX 92 71 89 70 87 / 10 30 20 30 40
MCKINNEY, TX 91 71 88 71 86 / 10 20 10 30 40
DALLAS, TX 92 74 90 74 91 / 10 10 10 20 40
TERRELL, TX 91 71 89 73 90 / 5 10 10 20 30
CORSICANA, TX 91 72 89 73 91 / 5 5 5 10 20
TEMPLE, TX 91 73 90 73 92 / 5 5 5 10 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 96 70 92 71 92 / 20 20 20 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191541
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1041 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD CAP OVERHEAD OF SE TX THIS MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER THE CAP WERE DISSIPATING AT 10 AM AND
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE SURFACE TO 700 MB RIDGE WAS KEEPING A FAIRLY
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. THE MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO ERODE MUCH OF THE CAP...BUT THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION ABOVE 850 MB TO LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING. DO LIKE THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH GOES ABOVE THE
GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THE SMOKE AND HAZE
APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY AND WOULD EXPECT THIS GIVEN THAT
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE HAS NOT MOVED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 73 92 73 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 73 91 73 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 73 79 74 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...46
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191241
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
741 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO AROUND 2000FT ALREADY THIS MORNING AND CLOUD
STREETS STARTING TO FORM IN THE WEST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO END BY
16Z AND GUSTY SSE WINDS TO 25KTS MOST OF THE DAY. MVFR CIGS RETURN
TONIGHT BETWEEN 02-05Z FIRST NEAR THE COAST AND THEN EXPANDING
NORTH.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S CAN
BE OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM
DAY AS EARLY MORNING CLOUDS BEGIN TO BURN OFF. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH COLLEGE STATION TOPING OUT NEAR
95 DEGREES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.
BY TUESDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR AREA. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF AND ALLOW FOR VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING A WIDE SWATH OF PVA ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THEREFORE HAS THE GREATER
PRECIP TOTALS NORTHWARDS AS WELL. EITHER WAY WIDESPREAD WAA AND
PVA SPELLS THE CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REVEAL THAT THE CAP CURRENTLY AT 850MB WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
TUESDAY. CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH LI`S APPROACHING
-7. STILL NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT SHORTWAVE COOLING WILL BE ABLE
TO ERASE THE CAP BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME STRONG
STORMS.
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT AND ALLOW
FOR AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA. CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL DEPEND UPON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE UP AND AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. 23
MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL GO AHEAD
WITH SCEC FOR ALL BUT THE 20-60NM WATERS WHERE WILL GO WITH
SCA...WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON THERE BUT RETURN
OVERNIGHT.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 73 92 73 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 73 91 73 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 73 79 74 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...45
000
FXUS64 KFWD 191210 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
710 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...STRATUS...GUSTY WINDS...CONVECTION NORTHWEST.
A FINGER OF STRATUS HAS MADE ITS WAY UP THE I-35 CORRIDOR...RIDING
A 50-KT LLJ. THE LAYER IS RATHER THIN...AND WITH THE VIGOROUS
WINDS FRAGMENTING THE STRATUS...HAVE CHOSEN TO CARRY TEMPO GROUPS
AT ALL SITES. AS THESE WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE MID TO LATE
MORNING...SOME GUSTS MAY EXCEED 35KTS. EXPECT THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED ALTHOUGH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
ANY LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WELL
WEST/NORTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES. THE STEERING FLOW WILL HAVE
MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH MAY ALLOW STORMS TO POSE
GREATER IMPACTS TO NORTHWEST ARRIVALS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
GENERALLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
NOCTURNAL STRATUS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION NORTHWEST. STRATUS MAY
ARRIVE A BIT EARLIER MONDAY MORNING.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
ACTIVE REGION OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER THIS MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH INTO TEXAS
ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN
CONCERN WOULD BE THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY DUE TO A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS MAY GUST AT TIMES TO AT OR ABOVE 30
MPH...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY.
LATER TODAY...STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY INITIATE WEST OF THE REGION
ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EAST TO WITHIN
20-40 MILES OF THE WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WOULD BRING ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
CAUSES THE STORMS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SPARSE ONCE AGAIN IN TEXAS WITH HIGHER COVERAGE EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WILL GO
WITH 20 POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION WITH A SMALL AREA OF 30 POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AGAIN ON MONDAY. POPS WILL BE SIMILAR ON
MONDAY AS TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS GENERALLY NORTH OF
I-20 AND WEST OF I-35.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ONGOING NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT OUTFLOW FROM
ONGOING ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH...AND THE ADVANCING DRYLINE FROM THE
WEST...SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....ALLOWING RAIN
CHANCES TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH DECREASING POTENTIAL FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST DUE IN LARGE PART TO TIME OF DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY
REPLACED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 72 89 72 89 / 10 20 10 20 40
WACO, TX 92 73 90 73 92 / 5 10 5 10 20
PARIS, TX 89 70 87 70 83 / 10 20 10 40 40
DENTON, TX 92 71 89 70 87 / 10 30 20 30 40
MCKINNEY, TX 91 71 88 71 86 / 10 20 10 30 40
DALLAS, TX 92 74 90 74 91 / 10 20 10 20 40
TERRELL, TX 91 71 89 73 90 / 5 20 10 20 30
CORSICANA, TX 91 72 89 73 91 / 5 10 5 10 20
TEMPLE, TX 91 73 90 73 92 / 5 10 5 10 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 95 70 92 71 92 / 20 20 20 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/30
000
FXUS64 KBRO 191146
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
646 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ABOUT THE SAME
TIME FRAME WITH GUSTS OF 24 TO 28KTS EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT A BKN TO OVC CLOUD DECK AT AROUND
1800 TO 2200 FT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE ARE JUST WEST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLES
REGION WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
SUBTROPICAL JET IS ORIENTED OVER THE SIERRA MADRES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RESULTS IN MODERATE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
GULF...AND A DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND WEAK LEE
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST.
TODAY...A SENSIBLE WEATHER REPEAT OF SATURDAY IS BASICALLY EXPECTED.
THE WIND DIRECTION MAY BE ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES WEST OF WHAT WE SAW
ON SATURDAY WHICH MAY WARM THINGS UP SLIGHTLY MORE...BUT OVERALL NOT
A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE. CLOUD COVER EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S
EAST...LOW 100S WEST. WIND SPEEDS SOUTH BE ABOUT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 35 MPH RANGE AT PEAK. CURRENT AND PROJECTED GRADIENT
AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONDITIONS BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
FOR TODAY. DRIER AIR AT 850MB AND VICINITY SHOULD MIX DOWN WELL
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUR HEAT INDEX AT ABOUT 100 TO 103 EVEN IN THE
WARMEST SPOTS. AGRICULTURAL FIRES FROM THE YUCATAN WILL KEEP HAZE IN
THE AIR THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT...HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING. A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE WILL ALSO KEEP UP OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINT AND CLOUD COVER AS
WELL AS PERSISTENT WIND WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY...WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED A BIT. ABOUT A 3 TO 4 MPH DECREASE IN WIND
SPEED WHICH WILL STILL BE BREEZY BY ANY ACCOUNT. THE DRIER NEAR SFC
AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND KEEPING PM HUMIDITY SOMEWHAT IN CHECK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR NEAR 90 ALONG 77 AND NEAR 100 IN
ZAPATA COUNTY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...INITIALLY A LARGE
CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING AROUND THE
BOTTOM OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON TUES AND WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WED.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY POOL OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TX AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SOME ISOLD CONV TO FIRE OFF
TUES AND WED WITH ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OVER SOUTHERN TX AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. AFTER
THIS FEATURE EXITS THE REGION MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE STABILITY OF THE ATMS AND
DECREASE OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS.
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND CMC ALL POINT
TOWARDS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING FO THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. GOOD RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT SHOWS UP WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL MEX MOS CYCLES. THE ECMWF TEMPS AND POPS ARE ALSO TURNING
UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS NUMBERS. SO WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF NUMBERS DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONGER TERM WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE
THIS MORNING.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER DURING THE DAY ON THE OPEN GULF WATERS. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT ON
THE GULF WATERS BEFORE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PGF WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY
STRONG OVER THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THE PGF WILL LIKELY RELAX
A LITTLE BIT ON WED AND THURS AS THE 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARDS. ACCORDINGLY THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A LOWER
PROBABILITY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 77 86 78 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 93 77 90 78 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 94 77 92 77 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 95 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 97 77 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 76 81 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
59...AVIATION/SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KCRP 191137 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER THIS MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY WITH GUSTS AOA 30 KNOTS AT ALI/CRP/VCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS EXPECTED NOT TO BE AS STRONG AT
LRD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 01Z WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALI/CRP/VCT THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW HAS
BROUGHT STRATUS INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. AS WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT STRATUS TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING ONCE
MIXING COMMENCES AND SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. FORECAST REMAINS
SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AS WARM AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. MORE HAZE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF
SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNING OVER MEXICO. CONVECTION NOT LIKELY
TODAY AS WELL WITH 700MB TEMPS AOA 12 TO 13 DEGREES C SO WILL KEEP
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. MORE STRATUS EXPECTED THIS UPCOMING
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN THE 70S IN ALL LOCATIONS.
PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A BENIGN SUMMERTIME
PATTERN STILL EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH CAPPING INVERSION THE RULE THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. THE ONE CAVEAT IS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT COINCIDENT WITH MOISTURE
POOLING AND THETA E RIDGE. STILL UNSURE ABOUT CAP STRENGTH
AT THIS TIME 700MB TEMPS THOUGH COOLING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 11
DEGREES WEST...STILL WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER A CAP. THE
CANADIAN MODEL HOWEVER WOULD INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. 850
TEMPS STILL QUITE WARM AS WELL.
OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN QUIET. HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
GRADUALLY COOL A DEGREE OR TWO BY LATE WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH PERIOD WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND MILD
MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 92 76 91 76 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 89 74 90 74 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 101 78 102 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 95 74 96 75 93 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 77 86 76 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 100 75 99 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 92 76 92 76 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 84 76 86 75 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KEWX 191132
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS OVER THE I-35
CORRIDOR TERMINALS UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT
WILL MIX DOWN AND LIFT CIGS TO VFR CLOUDINESS. MVFR CIGS WILL
REDEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. I-35
CORRIDOR TERMINAL WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KTS UNTIL LATE
MORNING BECOMING SOUTH 15 TO 25 KTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
LESSEN AFTER DARK TO 10 TO 15 KTS. KDRT TERMINAL VFR CLOUDS AOA 10
THSD AGL, KDRT TERMINAL WINDS SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ABOVE NORMAL HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE LEADING
SHORTWAVE AS PART OF A TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
US HAS TRENDED DEEPER AND EHNANCED THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER W
TX. THIS TREND DOES NOT APPEAR TO SHOW MUCH IMPACT ON THE WEATHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER
THE NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE WOULD GO UNNOTICED IF
NOT FOR AN ISOLATED BATCH OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE FEATURE APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO LEAVE UNACCOUNTED FOR
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE
UPDATE TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
COUNTIES.
MODEL FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE DRY LAYER TO THE WEST ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THOSE OF SATURDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE
TRIPLE DIGITS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE AND NEAR PERSISTENCE HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 90S FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEING REDUCED IN PART FROM THE DRY SLOT...POPS ARE LEFT AS SILENT
10S FOR THIS EVENING. ALOFT...THE TAP TO THE PACIFIC TROPICS IS
ONLY TEMPORARILY BROKEN...AND SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE DRY-LINE IN TIME FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MEANWHILE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE
SLOWLY IN THE ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION IS LEFT AS AN EVENING EVENT FOR NOW...BUT
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO NW TX COULD PRESENT SOME
ADDED LIFT TO EXTEND THE CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
CONNECT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE DRY SLOT COULD BECOME A FACTOR...GIVEN THE SHALLOW BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SO THE POPS ARE MOSTLY LOW CHANCE TO REFLECT
CONTINUED POOR CONFIDENCE. THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOWS THE ONLY
PATTERN THAT MODELS SHOW A GOOD CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
A POSSIBLE WEAK FRONT TO PROVIDE A FOCUS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND
DYNAMICS ALOFT FAVOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER EAST TX AND TAPERING
OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH NOT A
GREAT SIGNAL ON DIURNAL TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...WE WOULD ONLY
SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS AND COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. RUN-TO-RUN
MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD RAIN EVENT. THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS ALSO
PESSIMISTIC IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER TX WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE OVER TX...AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 73 93 74 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 72 91 72 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 72 93 72 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 71 91 70 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 101 73 101 74 99 / 10 10 20 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 71 90 70 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 72 97 72 96 / 10 10 10 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 90 73 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 73 91 76 92 / 10 10 - - 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 94 74 93 74 94 / 10 10 10 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 73 94 74 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...02
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
000
FXUS64 KMAF 191117
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS MOSTLY
5-10KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AND AT LEAST
BRIEFLY NEAR 20KTS AFTER 20Z AT MAF/INK/PEQ. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. THIS LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO CANADA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND
WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS NEAR CDS. IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS BY THAT NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S BUT BELOW 100 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. DRYLINE MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM COOLING MUCH BUT ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
HEAT QUICKLY. WILL GO WELL OVER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY
STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
THE WEST WIND LOOKS TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED ALSO NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24HRS AGO AS
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP SOMEWHAT. MODEL QPF STILL DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
MUCH LESS COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAY BE NEAR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT GDP ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... HAVE PUSHED WIND SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING.
FIRE WEATHER...
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
5KFT WILL COME OUT FROM VAN HORN TO THE GDP MTNS ALONG/NEAR I-20.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SE NM AND THE
NW PB AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN THE 5KFT THERE. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO A WARNING ELSEWHERE...FOR THE MOST WINDS ACROSS THE PB WILL BE
15-25 MPH AND 15-30 IN THE GDP MTNS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ALONG
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 191106
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
606 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS
A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL FALL TO NEAR 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS MOVING IN AROUND FL120.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO DAYS.
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT. A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH
NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE KEEPING THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SEEN AREAWIDE
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR RED FLAG MINUTES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MAKING A SLOW PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT...VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS IN TERMS OF AIRMASS
MODIFICATION OR WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN UPON ITS
APPROACH. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST QUICKLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS BACK NORTH.
LONG TERM...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF US ACROSS
NRN NE AND SRN SD BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH AXIS ROTATING
AROUND THE FEATURE BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOW WILL ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD YIELDING A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUT WEST ON MONDAY BUT INTENSITY OF
CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE WANING OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS
WEEKEND WITH NO KNOWN STARTS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN INTO OUR
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF
NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMING ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY
THURSDAY...RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY FROM MEXICO TO ALASKA AND
SERVE TO BLOCK THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM LEAVING WEST TEXAS
IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FORTUNATELY...THIS RIDGE WILL
BE OF THE DIRTY PERSUASION PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS LATE THIS WEEK
WITH RAINFALL CHANCES.
DRYLINE WILL LARGELY STAY OUT EAST OR BEYOND THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
THOUGH WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT GIVING A BIT OF
RELIEF OF THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A DRY FROPA BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE KNOCKED BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HONEST MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDERWAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH DAY 10. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS A SLUG OF BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE CONVERGE OVER
THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF
A QUITAQUE TO LAKEVIEW LINE...WHILE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DRY AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...PRODUCING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE THE QUESTION MARK AS
HIGHEST WIND MAXIMUM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A CHILDRESS TO MATADOR LINE
AS MARGINAL WINDS ALOFT HAVE A LONGER DISTANCE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL ALSO ISSUE AN RFD FOR COCHRAN THROUGH LUBBOCK COUNTIES
AS WIND MAXIMUM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONCERNS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH SUB 10 PCT RH VALUES. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 87 55 83 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 92 56 88 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 91 57 90 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 92 57 90 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 93 58 92 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 90 61 90 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 93 60 92 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 97 60 95 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 97 63 96 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 100 65 100 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030.
&&
$$
31
000
FXUS64 KAMA 191104
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE THREE TAF SITES BY LATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO
25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
5 TO 15 KNOTS BY 00Z TO 02Z MONDAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE PLAINS YESTERDAY
WILL BE STICKING AROUND FOR A LITTLE WHILE BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST
ENOUGH TO LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL.
THIS MORNING THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN RETREATING WESTWARD AS EXPECTED
BUT WILL STAY EAST OF ITS INITIAL POSITION YESTERDAY. THIS WILL MEAN
THAT ONCE THE SUN COMES UP IT WILL SURGE EAST OF THE AREA. BUT
BEHIND THE DRYLINE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE PANHANDLES
TO KEEP US COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MUCH COOLER FOR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE TO TAKE THE GOOD WITH
BAD AS THE COLD FRONT COULD SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONSIDERABLE CAP FOR THE MAJORITY THE
PANHANDLES TO LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE DOES LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE
SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LINE UP AND OVERCOME THE CAP
ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THESE FACTORS ARE: A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...THE MERGER OF
THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE...AND MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG. IF ANY ONE OF THESE FACTORS IS OFFSET FROM THE OTHERS THEN
FEW OR NO STORMS MAY FORM. WITH THAT BEING SAID IF THEY DO LINE
UP THEN WE COULD EASILY SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE UNCERTAINLY OF
THE SEVERAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE
LOW HOWEVER...SHOULD SEVERE STORMS FORM THE MAIN THREAT AREA WOULD
BE EAST OF A TURPIN TO CANADIAN LINE BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.
FIRE CONCERNS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE BETTER PART OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. SPECIFICALLY RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE
ELEVATED FIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT
FOR NOW EXPECTED THEM TO REMAIN BELOW STRONG CRITERIA.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY BEFORE AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW SENDS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE. THESE SHORTWAVES
COULD BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT WHILE 20 FOOT WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST INCREASES TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT. NORTHWEST TO WEST
20 FOOT WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. BOTH ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END AFTER
9 PM THIS EVENING.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE WHILE WEST 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AFTER MONDAY EVENING
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/14
000
FXUS64 KSJT 191104
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
604 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION/
&&
.AVIATION...
KSJT AND KDYS RADAR VAD INDICATED A 45-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AT
3000 MSL AT 11Z. WILL MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KABI AND
KSJT 14-15Z...AS WINDS WERE LIGHT AT THE SURFACE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 28 KTS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AT KABI AND KSJT
AS THE WINDS PARTIALLY MIX DOWN. STRATUS OTHERWISE WAS
APPROACHING KJCT AT 11Z...AND WILL PUT A MVFR BROKEN CIG UNTIL
15Z. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR A DRYLINE AT KABI AND KBBD
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO SMALL TO PUT IN TAFS.
MVFR STRATUS MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT...WITH
CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE WILL BE MOVING ALONG A SONORA...SAN ANGELO...ABILENE...
THROCKMORTON LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GFS SB CAPES ARE OVER 3000
J/KG WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEARS OF 40 KTS...JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. STILL
QUESTIONABLE IN HOW MUCH CAPPING WILL EXIST...BUT WITH STRONG
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING.
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
EAST ALONG AND EAST OF A HASKELL...ABILENE...COLEMAN...BROWNWOOD
LINE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE...BUT HIGH BASES SHOULD LIMIT THE
TORNADO THREAT. WENT CLOSE TO SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS HOWEVER SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER
THAN THIS MORNING...DUE TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS AND LESS MIXING.
04
LONG TERM...
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CWA MONDAY MORNING...ERODING BEFORE 12Z UNDER STRONG INSOLATION.
THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP IN THE VICINITY OF AN ABILENE TO SAN ANGELO LINE. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S /WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. THE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE /EAST OF THE DRYLINE/ WILL
YIELD MLCAPE VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 3000 J/KG. I ANTICIPATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR
CONVECTION AS WINDS IN THE MOIST SECTOR BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PROG 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF
35-40 KTS BY 00Z MONDAY EVENING.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...MEANING THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. I THINK CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ISOLATED WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING NORTH OF THE COLORADO RIVER.
WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE BEING SUPERCELLS...THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HODOGRAPHS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR A SMALL TORNADO THREAT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES. HOWEVER...ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO WANE AS IT WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. HOWEVER...PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER CAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. I STILL THINK
WE WILL SEE GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH PRECIP CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE FORECAST
IS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED TO OUR WEST
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...REPLACED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST FOR A FEW DAYS. THE
ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WESTERN SHIFT OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPS UNDER 100
DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
SNEAK ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK.
THIS HOT AND DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL POTENTIALLY MOVE INTO
THE BIG COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT. I INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL. THE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE WEEKEND PATTERN WITH THE GFS SHOWING
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE ECMWF SUGGESTING CONTINUING SOUTHWEST
TO WEST FLOW. THE LATER WOULD BE PREFERABLE FOR PRECIP CHANCES BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH EITHER AT THIS TIME.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYLINE WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG A SONORA...SAN ANGELO...
ABILENE...THROCKMORTON LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE...
AS RH VALUES FALL INTO THE TEENS. AREAS IN THE BIG COUNTRY...WEST
OF AN ABILENE TO THROCKMORTON LINE...WILL SEE NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES...AS 20 FOOT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH DEVELOP.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
BE 2 TO 4 MPH LOWER.
04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 97 69 97 69 90 / 20 20 10 10 20
SAN ANGELO 100 69 99 70 94 / 5 5 10 10 10
JUNCTION 95 70 96 72 95 / 10 10 20 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/04
000
FXUS64 KAMA 191002
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
502 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE PLAINS YESTERDAY
WILL BE STICKING AROUND FOR A LITTLE WHILE BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST
ENOUGH TO LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL.
THIS MORNING THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN RETREATING WESTWARD AS EXPECTED
BUT WILL STAY EAST OF ITS INITIAL POSITION YESTERDAY. THIS WILL MEAN
THAT ONCE THE SUN COMES UP IT WILL SURGE EAST OF THE AREA. BUT
BEHIND THE DRYLINE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE PANHANDLES
TO KEEP US COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...MUCH COOLER FOR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE TO TAKE THE GOOD WITH
BAD AS THE COLD FRONT COULD SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONSIDERABLE CAP FOR THE MAJORITY THE
PANHANDLES TO LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE DOES LOOK
LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE
SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LINE UP AND OVERCOME THE CAP
ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THESE FACTORS ARE: A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...THE MERGER OF
THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE...AND MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG. IF ANY ONE OF THESE FACTORS IS OFFSET FROM THE OTHERS THEN
FEW OR NO STORMS MAY FORM. WITH THAT BEING SAID IF THEY DO LINE
UP THEN WE COULD EASILY SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE UNCERTAINLY OF
THE SEVERAL CONTRIBUTING FACTORS WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE
LOW HOWEVER...SHOULD SEVERE STORMS FORM THE MAIN THREAT AREA WOULD
BE EAST OF A TURPIN TO CANADIAN LINE BETWEEN NOON AND 6 PM.
FIRE CONCERNS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE BETTER PART OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. SPECIFICALLY RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE
ELEVATED FIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT
FOR NOW EXPECTED THEM TO REMAIN BELOW STRONG CRITERIA.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY BEFORE AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW SENDS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE. THESE SHORTWAVES
COULD BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT WHILE 20 FOOT WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST INCREASES TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT. NORTHWEST TO WEST
20 FOOT WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. BOTH ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END AFTER
9 PM THIS EVENING.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE WHILE WEST 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AFTER MONDAY EVENING
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DEAF SMITH...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
11/14
000
FXUS64 KHGX 190945
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
445 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S CAN
BE OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM
DAY AS EARLY MORNING CLOUDS BEGIN TO BURN OFF. EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S IN MOST AREAS WITH COLLEGE STATION TOPING OUT NEAR
95 DEGREES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.
BY TUESDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR AREA. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF AND ALLOW FOR VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. THE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING A WIDE SWATH OF PVA ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH AND THEREFORE HAS THE GREATER
PRECIP TOTALS NORTHWARDS AS WELL. EITHER WAY WIDESPREAD WAA AND
PVA SPELLS THE CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REVEAL THAT THE CAP CURRENTLY AT 850MB WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
TUESDAY. CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH LI`S APPROACHING
-7. STILL NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT SHORTWAVE COOLING WILL BE ABLE
TO ERASE THE CAP BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME STRONG
STORMS.
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT AND ALLOW
FOR AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA. CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL DEPEND UPON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE UP AND AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. 23
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL GO AHEAD
WITH SCEC FOR ALL BUT THE 20-60NM WATERS WHERE WILL GO WITH
SCA...WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON THERE BUT RETURN
OVERNIGHT.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION 1500-2200 FT BUT SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED THIS MORNING AS STRONG MIXING DEVELOPS. SKIES SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY 16Z FOR MOST AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SE WINDS
AROUND 15G25KT AFTER 16Z. STRONGER GUSTS NEAR CLL WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO LLJ AXIS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD COME BACK IN TONIGHT BUT
TIMING DIFFERS AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST GOING
FOR NOW.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 73 92 73 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 73 91 73 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 73 79 74 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...45
000
FXUS64 KEWX 190923
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
423 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ABOVE NORMAL HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE LEADING
SHORTWAVE AS PART OF A TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
US HAS TRENDED DEEPER AND EHNANCED THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER W
TX. THIS TREND DOES NOT APPEAR TO SHOW MUCH IMPACT ON THE WEATHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER
THE NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE WOULD GO UNNOTICED IF
NOT FOR AN ISOLATED BATCH OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE FEATURE APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO LEAVE UNACCOUNTED FOR
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE
UPDATE TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
COUNTIES.
MODEL FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE DRY LAYER TO THE WEST ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THOSE OF SATURDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE
TRIPLE DIGITS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE AND NEAR PERSISTENCE HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 90S FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEING REDUCED IN PART FROM THE DRY SLOT...POPS ARE LEFT AS SILENT
10S FOR THIS EVENING. ALOFT...THE TAP TO THE PACIFIC TROPICS IS
ONLY TEMPORARILY BROKEN...AND SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE DRY-LINE IN TIME FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MEANWHILE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE
SLOWLY IN THE ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION IS LEFT AS AN EVENING EVENT FOR NOW...BUT
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO NW TX COULD PRESENT SOME
ADDED LIFT TO EXTEND THE CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
CONNECT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE DRY SLOT COULD BECOME A FACTOR...GIVEN THE SHALLOW BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SO THE POPS ARE MOSTLY LOW CHANCE TO REFLECT
CONTINUED POOR CONFIDENCE. THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOWS THE ONLY
PATTERN THAT MODELS SHOW A GOOD CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
A POSSIBLE WEAK FRONT TO PROVIDE A FOCUS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND
DYNAMICS ALOFT FAVOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER EAST TX AND TAPERING
OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH NOT A
GREAT SIGNAL ON DIURNAL TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...WE WOULD ONLY
SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS AND COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. RUN-TO-RUN
MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD RAIN EVENT. THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS ALSO
PESSIMISTIC IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER TX WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE OVER TX...AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 73 93 74 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 72 91 72 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 72 93 72 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 71 91 70 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 101 73 101 74 99 / 10 10 20 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 71 90 70 90 / 10 10 10 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 72 97 72 96 / 10 10 10 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 90 73 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 73 91 76 92 / 10 10 - - 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 94 74 93 74 94 / 10 10 10 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 73 94 74 93 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...02
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
000
FXUS64 KCRP 190910
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
410 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW HAS
BROUGHT STRATUS INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. AS WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT STRATUS TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING ONCE
MIXING COMMENCES AND SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. FORECAST REMAINS
SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AS WARM AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. MORE HAZE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF
SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL BURNING OVER MEXICO. CONVECTION NOT LIKELY
TODAY AS WELL WITH 700MB TEMPS AOA 12 TO 13 DEGREES C SO WILL KEEP
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. MORE STRATUS EXPECTED THIS UPCOMING
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN THE 70S IN ALL LOCATIONS.
PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A BENIGN SUMMERTIME
PATTERN STILL EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH CAPPING INVERSION THE RULE THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. THE ONE CAVEAT IS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE
IS ALSO SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT COINCIDENT WITH MOISTURE
POOLING AND THETA E RIDGE. STILL UNSURE ABOUT CAP STRENGTH
AT THIS TIME 700MB TEMPS THOUGH COOLING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 11
DEGREES WEST...STILL WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER A CAP. THE
CANADIAN MODEL HOWEVER WOULD INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. 850
TEMPS STILL QUITE WARM AS WELL.
OTHERWISE THINGS REMAIN QUIET. HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
GRADUALLY COOL A DEGREE OR TWO BY LATE WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH PERIOD WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND MILD
MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 92 76 91 76 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 89 74 90 74 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 101 78 102 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 95 74 96 75 93 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 77 86 76 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 100 75 99 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 92 76 92 76 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 84 76 86 75 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 190908
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
308 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 90 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. WEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE 90`S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST LATE NEXT WEEK MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF EL PASO. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OUT WEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS REMAIN AT THE BASE OF A
LARGE TROUGH THE STRADDLES THE WEST AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. AN ENHANCED WEST FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF THAT TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH...
PASSING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS. WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH.
THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO A
REGULAR WEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAKER WEST WINDS ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE TROUGH
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND RE-ORIENT THE
LOCAL FLOW PATTERN MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MIDDLE 90`S ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS.
THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WHILE A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS TO
THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY LINE BOUNDARY
INTENSIFYING EAST OF AREA OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE
THURSDAY. SHOULD THE MOIST AIR SURGE WESTWARD THAT MAY INCREASE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. LONG
RANGE MODELS HAVE PROJECTED THIS DRY LINE TO SHIFT BACK AND FORTH
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING THE DRY
LINE BOUNDARY TO REMAIN MOSTLY EAST OF THE AREA KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES POOR. WILL KEEP MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN OTERO COUNTY AND HUDSPETH COUNTY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR NOW...UNTIL MODELS BETTER RESOLVE THE
SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM AND
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z-20/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS AFT 17Z...DIMINISHING FOR
MOST AREAS AFT 02Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE AREA REMAINS AT THE BASE OF A LARGE TROUGH WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE LOWER IN SPEED TODAY BUT STILL BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST
HUMIDITY VALUE RECOVERIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF
THE AREA. SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING CRITICAL VALUES FOR RED FLAG FOR A
PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKER WEST
FLOW AND MILD HIGH PRESSURE RIDING TAKING PLACE. WINDS WILL LIGHT
BUT VERY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MODEST OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF A MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE EAST FOR NEXT FRIDAY AND WEEKEND THAT
COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER AREAS EAST OF
EL PASO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 90 67 91 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 90 61 91 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 88 58 88 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 89 58 86 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 65 42 65 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 85 59 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 81 52 80 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 89 54 86 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 85 52 84 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 88 66 89 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 90 54 86 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 93 63 92 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 83 55 80 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
FABENS 91 63 91 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 90 60 89 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 87 65 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 86 48 87 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
HATCH 83 56 84 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 87 57 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 89 57 89 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 75 51 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 76 43 73 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 75 42 73 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 77 47 75 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 80 55 79 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 85 54 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 76 47 75 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 82 56 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 85 47 84 47 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 83 38 79 37 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 82 53 82 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 88 56 86 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 87 53 85 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 89 57 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 83 53 82 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/04
000
FXUS64 KLUB 190903
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
403 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SLIDE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO DAYS.
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT. A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH
NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE KEEPING THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SEEN AREAWIDE
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR RED FLAG MINUTES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MAKING A SLOW PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT...VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS IN TERMS OF AIRMASS
MODIFICATION OR WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN UPON ITS
APPROACH. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST QUICKLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS BACK NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF US ACROSS
NRN NE AND SRN SD BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH AXIS ROTATING
AROUND THE FEATURE BACK INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LOW WILL ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD YIELDING A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. WE MAY SEE ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUT WEST ON MONDAY BUT INTENSITY OF
CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE WANING OVER WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS
WEEKEND WITH NO KNOWN STARTS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN INTO OUR
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF
NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMING ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY
THURSDAY...RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALL THE WAY FROM MEXICO TO ALASKA AND
SERVE TO BLOCK THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM LEAVING WEST TEXAS
IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FORTUNATELY...THIS RIDGE WILL
BE OF THE DIRTY PERSUASION PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS LATE THIS WEEK
WITH RAINFALL CHANCES.
DRYLINE WILL LARGELY STAY OUT EAST OR BEYOND THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
THOUGH WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT GIVING A BIT OF
RELIEF OF THE TOASTY TEMPERATURES SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A DRY FROPA BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE KNOCKED BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HONEST MOISTURE RETURN GETS UNDERWAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE DRYLINE
REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH DAY 10. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AS A SLUG OF BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE CONVERGE OVER
THE AREA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF
A QUITAQUE TO LAKEVIEW LINE...WHILE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DRY AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY...PRODUCING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE THE QUESTION MARK AS
HIGHEST WIND MAXIMUM WILL RIDE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A CHILDRESS TO MATADOR LINE
AS MARGINAL WINDS ALOFT HAVE A LONGER DISTANCE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. WILL ALSO ISSUE AN RFD FOR COCHRAN THROUGH LUBBOCK COUNTIES
AS WIND MAXIMUM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONCERNS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH SUB 10 PCT RH VALUES. THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL
GENERALLY BE WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 87 55 83 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 92 56 88 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 91 57 90 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 92 57 90 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 93 58 92 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 90 61 90 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 93 60 92 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 97 60 95 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 97 63 96 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 100 65 100 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030.
&&
$$
31/26
000
FXUS64 KSJT 190852
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
352 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE WILL BE MOVING ALONG A SONORA...SAN ANGELO...ABILENE...
THROCKMORTON LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GFS SB CAPES ARE OVER 3000
J/KG WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEARS OF 40 KTS...JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. STILL
QUESTIONABLE IN HOW MUCH CAPPING WILL EXIST...BUT WITH STRONG
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING.
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
EAST ALONG AND EAST OF A HASKELL...ABILENE...COLEMAN...BROWNWOOD
LINE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE...BUT HIGH BASES SHOULD LIMIT THE
TORNADO THREAT. WENT CLOSE TO SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS HOWEVER SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER
THAN THIS MORNING...DUE TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS AND LESS MIXING.
04
.LONG TERM...
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CWA MONDAY MORNING...ERODING BEFORE 12Z UNDER STRONG INSOLATION.
THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP IN THE VICINITY OF AN ABILENE TO SAN ANGELO LINE. TEMPS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S /WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. THE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MOISTURE /EAST OF THE DRYLINE/ WILL
YIELD MLCAPE VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 3000 J/KG. I ANTICIPATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR
CONVECTION AS WINDS IN THE MOIST SECTOR BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PROG 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF
35-40 KTS BY 00Z MONDAY EVENING.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...MEANING THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR THE MOST PART
IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. I THINK CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
ISOLATED WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING NORTH OF THE COLORADO RIVER.
WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE BEING SUPERCELLS...THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HODOGRAPHS LOOK
REASONABLE FOR A SMALL TORNADO THREAT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES. HOWEVER...ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO WANE AS IT WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S. HOWEVER...PROLONGED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER CAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. I STILL THINK
WE WILL SEE GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH PRECIP CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE FORECAST
IS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED TO OUR WEST
FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...REPLACED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST FOR A FEW DAYS. THE
ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WESTERN SHIFT OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TEMPS UNDER 100
DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
SNEAK ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK.
THIS HOT AND DRY PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL POTENTIALLY MOVE INTO
THE BIG COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT. I INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL. THE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE WEEKEND PATTERN WITH THE GFS SHOWING
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE ECMWF SUGGESTING CONTINUING SOUTHWEST
TO WEST FLOW. THE LATER WOULD BE PREFERABLE FOR PRECIP CHANCES BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH EITHER AT THIS TIME.
JOHNSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYLINE WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG A SONORA...SAN ANGELO...
ABILENE...THROCKMORTON LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE...
AS RH VALUES FALL INTO THE TEENS. AREAS IN THE BIG COUNTRY...WEST
OF AN ABILENE TO THROCKMORTON LINE...WILL SEE NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES...AS 20 FOOT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH DEVELOP.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
BE 2 TO 4 MPH LOWER.
04
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 97 69 97 69 90 / 20 20 10 10 20
SAN ANGELO 100 69 99 70 94 / 5 5 10 10 10
JUNCTION 95 70 96 72 95 / 10 10 20 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/25
000
FXUS64 KBRO 190848
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
348 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE ARE JUST WEST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE PANHANDLES
REGION WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
SUBTROPICAL JET IS ORIENTED OVER THE SIERRA MADRES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RESULTS IN MODERATE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
GULF...AND A DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND WEAK LEE
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST.
TODAY...A SENSIBLE WEATHER REPEAT OF SATURDAY IS BASICALLY EXPECTED.
THE WIND DIRECTION MAY BE ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES WEST OF WHAT WE SAW
ON SATURDAY WHICH MAY WARM THINGS UP SLIGHTLY MORE...BUT OVERALL NOT
A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE. CLOUD COVER EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S
EAST...LOW 100S WEST. WIND SPEEDS SOUTH BE ABOUT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 35 MPH RANGE AT PEAK. CURRENT AND PROJECTED GRADIENT
AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONDITIONS BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
FOR TODAY. DRIER AIR AT 850MB AND VICINITY SHOULD MIX DOWN WELL
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUR HEAT INDEX AT ABOUT 100 TO 103 EVEN IN THE
WARMEST SPOTS. AGRICULTURAL FIRES FROM THE YUCATAN WILL KEEP HAZE IN
THE AIR THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT...HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING. A STEADY SOUTH BREEZE WILL ALSO KEEP UP OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINT AND CLOUD COVER AS
WELL AS PERSISTENT WIND WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY...WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXED A BIT. ABOUT A 3 TO 4 MPH DECREASE IN WIND
SPEED WHICH WILL STILL BE BREEZY BY ANY ACCOUNT. THE DRIER NEAR SFC
AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY IN THE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND KEEPING PM HUMIDITY SOMEWHAT IN CHECK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR NEAR 90 ALONG 77 AND NEAR 100 IN
ZAPATA COUNTY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...INITIALLY A LARGE
CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING AROUND THE
BOTTOM OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON TUES AND WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WED.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY POOL OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TX AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SOME ISOLD CONV TO FIRE OFF
TUES AND WED WITH ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS OVER SOUTHERN TX AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. AFTER
THIS FEATURE EXITS THE REGION MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE STABILITY OF THE ATMS AND
DECREASE OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS.
LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND CMC ALL POINT
TOWARDS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING FO THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. GOOD RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT SHOWS UP WITH THE LAST
SEVERAL MEX MOS CYCLES. THE ECMWF TEMPS AND POPS ARE ALSO TURNING
UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS NUMBERS. SO WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF NUMBERS DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONGER TERM WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE
THIS MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER DURING THE DAY ON THE OPEN GULF WATERS. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT ON
THE GULF WATERS BEFORE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PGF WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY
STRONG OVER THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES
WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THE PGF WILL LIKELY RELAX
A LITTLE BIT ON WED AND THURS AS THE 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARDS. ACCORDINGLY THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A LOWER
PROBABILITY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 77 86 78 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 93 77 90 78 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 94 77 92 77 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 95 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 97 77 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 76 81 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM...60
000
FXUS64 KFWD 190836
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
336 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
ACTIVE REGION OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER THIS MORNING BEFORE REDEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH INTO TEXAS
ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN
CONCERN WOULD BE THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY DUE TO A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS MAY GUST AT TIMES TO AT OR ABOVE 30
MPH...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY.
LATER TODAY...STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY INITIATE WEST OF THE REGION
ALONG THE DRYLINE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EAST TO WITHIN
20-40 MILES OF THE WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WOULD BRING ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING
CAUSES THE STORMS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SPARSE ONCE AGAIN IN TEXAS WITH HIGHER COVERAGE EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WILL GO
WITH 20 POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION WITH A SMALL AREA OF 30 POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AGAIN ON MONDAY. POPS WILL BE SIMILAR ON
MONDAY AS TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS GENERALLY NORTH OF
I-20 AND WEST OF I-35.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA-WIDE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ONGOING NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT OUTFLOW FROM
ONGOING ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH...AND THE ADVANCING DRYLINE FROM THE
WEST...SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....ALLOWING RAIN
CHANCES TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN HIGHEST OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH DECREASING POTENTIAL FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST DUE IN LARGE PART TO TIME OF DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY
REPLACED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 72 89 72 89 / 10 20 10 20 40
WACO, TX 92 73 90 73 92 / 5 10 5 10 20
PARIS, TX 89 70 87 70 83 / 10 20 10 40 40
DENTON, TX 92 71 89 70 87 / 10 30 20 30 40
MCKINNEY, TX 91 71 88 71 86 / 10 20 10 30 40
DALLAS, TX 92 74 90 74 91 / 10 20 10 20 40
TERRELL, TX 91 71 89 73 90 / 5 20 10 20 30
CORSICANA, TX 91 72 89 73 91 / 5 10 5 10 20
TEMPLE, TX 91 73 90 73 92 / 5 10 5 10 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 95 70 92 71 92 / 20 20 20 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/30
000
FXUS64 KMAF 190820
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. THIS LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO CANADA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND
WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS NEAR CDS. IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS BY THAT NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S BUT BELOW 100 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. DRYLINE MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM COOLING MUCH BUT ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
HEAT QUICKLY. WILL GO WELL OVER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY
STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
THE WEST WIND LOOKS TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED ALSO NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24HRS AGO AS
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP SOMEWHAT. MODEL QPF STILL DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
MUCH LESS COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAY BE NEAR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT GDP ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... HAVE PUSHED WIND SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
5KFT WILL COME OUT FROM VAN HORN TO THE GDP MTNS ALONG/NEAR I-20.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SE NM AND THE
NW PB AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN THE 5KFT THERE. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO A WARNING ELSEWHERE...FOR THE MOST WINDS ACROSS THE PB WILL BE
15-25 MPH AND 15-30 IN THE GDP MTNS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ALONG
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 67 95 61 / 0 10 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 98 69 97 63 / 0 10 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 96 66 96 61 / 0 10 0 0
DRYDEN TX 102 72 101 70 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 98 70 98 66 / 0 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 88 65 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 94 65 94 59 / 0 10 0 0
MARFA TX 88 50 89 51 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 98 68 97 63 / 0 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 97 69 96 64 / 0 0 10 10
WINK TX 100 66 100 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
49/72
000
FXUS64 KCRP 190554 AAC
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1254 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AT
THIS TIME. ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. A RETURN TO VFR
IS EXPECTED BY 14Z/15Z AS SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. GUSTY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL AOA 01Z...WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING AT
ALI/VCT/CRP DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE BAND OF CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. LOW STRATUS ALSO
MAKING RETURN ALONG THE COAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE INLAND
OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MODIFICATIONS TO SKY GRIDS...THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
MARINE...WINDS AROUND SCA EARLIER OVER THE SOUTHERN BAYS HAVE
FALLEN BACK TO SCEC RANGE. EXPECT SCEC CONDS WILL PERSIST AS WELL
OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-35 KNOTS
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING TRANSITIONING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI AND THEN BACK TO VFR SUNDAY. KLRD XPCTD TO REMAIN
AT VFR THRU VALID TAF PERIOD. THICK HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUD
DECK WITH MVFR CIGS PROG TO DVLP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. MVFR CLOUD
DECK SHOULD MIX OUT SUNDAY MRNG WITH VFR PREVAILING LATE MRNG THRU
AFTN. MODERATE TO GUSTY SE WINDS TO PREVAIL THRU TAF PERIOD ALL
TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 92 76 91 76 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 89 74 90 74 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 101 78 102 76 100 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 95 74 96 75 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 77 86 75 86 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 100 74 99 75 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 92 76 92 76 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 84 76 86 75 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KFWD 190458
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...TIMING THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS AND ANY IMPACTS
FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE FROM THE 00Z TAFS WAS TO REMOVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT BURSTS FROM THE TAFS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ANVIL PRECIPITATION REMAINS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
TONIGHT...AND THE LACK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHWEST
INDICATES THAT ANVILS ARE UNLIKELY TO MOVE OVER AREA TAFS TONIGHT.
WE REMAIN IN AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAT BURSTS WITH VERY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
FOR ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT AS THIS COULD RESULT IN HEAT BURSTS
NEAR AREA AIRPORTS...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
MVFR CIGS...LEFT MVFR STRATUS IN AFTER 12Z AT METROPLEX AREA
TAFS...AND A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER FOR WACO. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
OF 50 TO 55 KTS WAS IN PLACE OVER NORTH TX...AND EXPECT THAT THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH MVFR CIGS BUILDING OVER AREA TAF SITES AS
THIS JET PERSISTS THROUGH SUNRISE. STRATUS SHOULD BE SHALLOW IN
NATURE AND QUICK TO SCATTER OUT AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING WITH
VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER DAY OF
PRIMARILY DRYLINE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR AREA AIRPORTS. THE
DRYLINE WILL BE CLOSER TO OUR TAF SITES TOMORROW...HOWEVER A CAP
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY THAT FIRES LONG THE DRYLINE TO DIRECTLY IMPACT
AREA AIRPORTS. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT BURSTS FROM
ANVIL PRECIPITATION AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION ANYTHING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE WILL REMOVE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HAS
CONSIDERABLE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CAPPED
TO DEEP CONVECTION. WHAT APPEARED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE EARLIER WAS
THE THREAT FOR DOWNBURST WINDS OR HEATBURSTS FROM CONVECTION TO
THE WEST. WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND AMPLE ANVIL
DEBRIS SPREADING EASTWARD...A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR THE PHENOMENON
WAS IN PLACE. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA HOWEVER HAS FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES SQUASHED THIS
SCENARIO. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.
ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUT THE
REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE EACH DAY. PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA WILL BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN
FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT...AND THE ADDITION
OF POPS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20...NOT NECESSARILY FOR SUPERCELL
TYPE CONVECTION...BUT FOR VERY HIGH BASED WEAK CONVECTION THAT
COULD CAUSE STRONG GUSTY WINDS VIA HEATBURSTS LATE THIS EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON THE DRY LINE REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL STAY AS FAR WEST AS A
CHILDRESS TO SAN ANGELO LINE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
WHETHER SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL INITIATE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
ENTER THE CWA. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS STRONGER TODAY...AND
THEREFORE STORM MOTIONS WOULD BE MORE EASTERLY. SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WOULD HAVE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO BECOME
SUPERCELLS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. LOCAL OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND DIMINISHED CIN
IS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...WITH THE AIRMASS OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE AT 1500-2500 J/KG AND
HIGHER CIN DUE TO DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 60S. WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ALLOW SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO INITIATE AND ORGANIZE WEST OF
THE CWA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ENTER THE NW ZONES...BUT
BELIEVE THE CELLS MAY WEAKEN A BIT AND BECOME ELEVATED DUE TO THE
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT
EXIST FOR PRIMARILY HAIL/WIND...AND POPS ARE NEAR 20-30 PERCENT IN
THE NW ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR GIANT HAIL OR
TORNADOES DOES NOT LOOK AS HIGH AS IT DID YESTERDAY IN OUR CWA.
CURRENTLY...WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION BASED AT AROUND 14000FT
CONTINUES TO BUBBLE UP OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. MOST OF THE PRECIP
IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT THIS ELEVATED
MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE FORECAST
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THERE ARE
A FEW MODELS NOW INDICATING A MOISTURE PLUME FROM 500-600MB
ENTERING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
ANVILS FROM STORMS TO THE WEST. THE ISSUE IS THAT THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...AND
COINCIDES WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE. THE STAGE
IS SET FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH BASES ABOVE 12000FT.
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL EVAPORATE DUE TO VERY DRY AIR BELOW 600MB...
BUT SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A 50KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE DEVELOPING AND
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS HIGH BASED CONVECTION
TO TRANSFER STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE IN WHAT IS TECHNICALLY A
TYPE OF HEATBURST. THIS IS TOUGH TO COMMUNICATE TO THE PUBLIC IN
SIMPLE TERMS...BUT THE POPS ARE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND THE CHANCE
FOR THAT IS LOW. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT A
LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT...AND THEREFORE HAVE
BUMPED UP SOUTH WINDS TO 20-25 MPH AND MENTIONED GUSTS TO 40 MPH
IN THE ZONES. THIS FORECAST IS NOT OF HIGH CONFIDENCE...PARTLY
BECAUSE IT MAY BE THE FIRST NWS FORECAST THAT HAS EVER TRIED TO
INCLUDE A RISK OF HEATBURSTS IN A ZONE FORECAST. HOWEVER LOOKING
AT ALL OF THE DATA...THE SETUP TONIGHT LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BENEATH ELEVATED RADAR ECHOES. WE
SHALL SEE.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOMORROW AND WILL PUSH THE DRYLINE FARTHER TO THE EAST INTO THE NW
ZONES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CIN SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH OVER THE NW
ZONES FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AND SUPERCELL STORM MOTION WILL
BE EASTERLY. WEST TO EAST STORM TRACKS ON SUNDAY EVENING MEANS
POPS WILL COVER THE AREAS NORTH OF I-20. LOW LEVEL HELICITY RAMPS
UP AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING AND IF SUPERCELLS CAN OVERCOME THE
WEAK CIN AND TAP INTO SURFACE PARCELS...A TORNADO THREAT WILL
EXIST. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY/S PATTERN WITH
THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE SAME PLACE...JUST A LITTLE WEAKER CIN SO
POPS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER/FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
PERSISTENCE AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY MOVE EAST AND
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WORK EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BE WIDESPREAD AND AVERAGE
1/2 TO 1 INCH. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN HIGH
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND DRIER AIR WILL END RAIN
CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
AND INTO THE 60S DUE TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...BUT HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLES INTO
THE AREA...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR NW FLOW MCS ACTIVITY ON
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE NW ZONES. TOO FAR OUT TO RELY ON THE MODEL
FORECASTS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 90 72 89 72 / 5 10 20 10 20
WACO, TX 72 90 73 90 73 / 5 5 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 70 88 70 87 70 / 10 10 20 10 40
DENTON, TX 73 90 71 89 70 / 10 10 20 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 73 89 71 88 71 / 10 10 20 10 30
DALLAS, TX 75 91 74 90 74 / 5 10 20 10 20
TERRELL, TX 72 88 71 89 73 / 5 5 20 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 71 89 72 89 73 / 5 5 5 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 71 89 73 90 73 / 5 5 5 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 71 93 70 92 71 / 5 20 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
000
FXUS64 KHGX 190456
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX
OUT 15-16Z TOMORROW. PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL LOOKS TIGHTER TOMORROW...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY GUSTS IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING WITH
WINDS SLOWLY COMING DOWN. NO SIGNS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE
AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS STILL POSSIBLE. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR THE UPDATE. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 91 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 90 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 82 73 82 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42
000
FXUS64 KSJT 190445
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
/06Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 25KT THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE REMAINING
TERMINALS SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 100 71 97 67 95 / 20 20 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 101 72 101 68 100 / 20 10 5 5 10
JUNCTION 97 70 94 70 95 / 10 10 5 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
15
000
FXUS64 KLUB 190441
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
RETREATING SURFACE DRY-LINE SHOULD HOLD VERY CLOSE TO KCDS-KLBB
LINE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEN A VEERED DRY WESTERLY WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A WEAK
PACIFIC COLD FRONT PULLS THE SURFACE TROUGH A BIT FURTHER EAST
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. SURFACE WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW WIND SPEEDS NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTION FROM
BLOWING DUST. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANCE AT REDEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT. THE TORNADO WATCH
WAS CANCELLED FOR THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM.
MOST TTU MESONET SITES HAVE DROPPED BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.
DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...
CURRENT SMALL AREA OF TSRA PASSING AROUND KCDS WITH THE SURFACE
DRY-LINE SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE AIRPORT WITHIN A FEW MINUTES
OF 00Z. RETAINED VCTS FOR AN HOUR THOUGH WILL BE WATCHING POTENTIAL
FOR REDEVELOPMENT NORTH OF KCDS THAT COULD STRENGTHEN IN THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MOVE SOUTHWARD EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE GONE BY MID EVENING WITH DRY
VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING. FLOW WILL VEER TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY.
RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE FA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT THANKS TO STRONG HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND
APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK OFF THE CAPROCK. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THOUGH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WERE HANGING ON ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES. THIS EXTREME HEAT AND DECENT MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH THE
LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING 2000-3000+ J/KG OF SBCAPE GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO LAKE ALAN HENRY LINE. SFC
CONVERGENCE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT GIVEN THE
STRONG HEATING AND RESULTING WEAKENING CAP...IT STILL APPEARS
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL START SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EAST ROW OF
COUNTIES...THOUGH MAY NOT STAY IN THE CWA FOR LONG. STILL...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE SEVERE MENTION FOR THE EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
COULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EAST OR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER
TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS INCREASES. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIM
THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEYOND 06Z.
BEYOND THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES...HOT AND VERY DRY AIR AS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAPROCK RESULTING
IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
FURTHER ELEVATING THE FIRE DANGER. THE LEAD WAVE WITHIN THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND THIS PULL
THE DRYLINE EVER FURTHER EAST...OUT OF THE FA...WITH WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
LONG TERM...
PLAN FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
WITH DRY WESTERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS SUCH...THE CONTINUED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD.
FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE DRYLINE ON
THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
INCREASE. STILL...DO EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND
UPWARD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE LEFT
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARD
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THEY MAY COME UP A BIT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...AND RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR ON THE CAPROCK. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE
AREA EXPERIENCING HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE DRYLINE
PUSHES FURTHER EAST THAN TODAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WINDS WILL BE ON
THE FENCE REGARDING MEETING THE RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT RH VALUES
WILL BE A SLAM DUNK...DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OR
ALL OF THE FA. TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
/AND MOSTLY LIKELY LONGER DURATION OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE/
BUT CURRENT RUN OF MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES. DID NOT GET CUTE ATTM AND INSTEAD DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF/WHERE A RFD AND RFW WILL BE MOST
APPROPRIATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 88 54 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 56 92 56 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 58 92 58 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 60 93 57 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 61 94 60 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 60 92 59 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 63 94 60 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 64 96 62 93 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 64 97 64 95 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 70 102 65 98 62 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
&&
$$
99/99/05
000
FXUS64 KEWX 190439 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS
LOW CLOUDS INVADE THE I35 CORRIDOR. CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BREAK AND CIGS TO LIFT BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN AROUND 17Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT ABOUT 10 TO 17 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. ACROSS KDRT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CYCLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
UPDATE...
THE EARLIER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. RECENTLY TWO
SHOWERS DEVELOPED...BUT THEY HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. WILL REMOVE
ISOLATED POP MENTION OUT WEST. HAVE RE-ESTABLISHED TRENDS TO THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
18Z MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS DUE
TO PROXIMITY TO THE DRYLINE AND HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID WEEK ACTIVITY MAY INCLUDE SOME STRONGER STORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE WITH WINDS SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT OR ABOUT 10Z THROUGH 14Z
SUNDAY ALONG THE I35 TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY 17Z SUNDAY. KDRT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE PACIFIC KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN 5-10 DEGREES OVER THIS TIME FRIDAY. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL KEEP
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS S TX. SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SWLY
FLOW WILL TRACK ACROSS W/SW TX ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS...SOUTH
TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN EDGE OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE HILL COUNTRY
AND ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. OTHERWISE CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE PACIFIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SHY OF RECORD HIGHS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR MONDAY FROM SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INCREASE DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO WEST TX
AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME SPOTTY HEAVIER QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL
FLOW PARALLELS THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO EXPECTING AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE
FAIRLY MEAGER AT A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE DRYING TREND
FOR THU-FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND PROBABILITY OF A FEW AIRMASS DAYTIME STORMS WILL BE TOO
LOW TO MENTION. HAVE TRENDED WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RIDGING ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 95 73 94 72 / - - - 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 94 71 93 71 / - - - 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 95 71 94 71 / - - - 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 92 71 92 69 / - 10 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 102 75 102 75 / - 10 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 91 71 91 69 / - - - 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 97 71 97 72 / - - - 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 94 72 93 72 / - - - 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 93 75 92 75 / - - - 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 95 72 94 72 / - - - 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 95 72 93 73 / - - - 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
000
FXUS64 KAMA 190418 AAC
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1118 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
WEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE INTO 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS
WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AT GUY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SKIES
WILL REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
UPDATE...
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED OVER THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY...DO NOT EXPECT
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THUS HAVE GONE AND
CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 171 THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT. HAVE
ALSO REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
SO ONLY MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SENT.
CLK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH
THE SETTING SUN AND THEN THEY WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY BY LATE EVENING
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP ON SUNDAY INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS.
GOEHRING
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
STORMS BLOWING UP IN FAR ERN COUNTIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SFC
DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TORNADO WATCH 171 IN EFFECT UNTIL
11 PM THIS EVENING. KEPT POPS IN THRU THE EVENING HOURS IN THAT AREA.
REMAINDER OF FCST AREA SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS TSTMS WILL HEAD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS STATES SUN AND MON WITH MINOR EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING
ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FAR NRN COUNTIES FOR
SUN AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...MOST
MODELS ARE DRY OR KEEP MAIN PRECIP SHIELD NORTH OF FCST AREA BECAUSE
OF TOO MUCH WESTERLY FLOW. DITTO FOR MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DECIDED ON
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS BY RESTRICTING SLGT CHC POPS
TO NRN ZONES ONLY.
TUE THRU WED SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS TX AND OK PNHDLS AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS EWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. UA PATTERN AMPLIFIES LATER NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVG ACROSS SRN PLAINS TUE THRU THURSDAY. HAVE RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS
THU AND THU NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF
UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVERHEAD LONGER AS PER SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS...THEN POPS CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED. ALSO KEPT IN SLGT CHC
POPS FRI INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS PER COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF. AGAIN...IF RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ON LONGER OVER OUR FCST AREA THAN
PROGGED...POP THREAT WOULD BE REDUCED. TIME WILL TELL.
ANDRADE
FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. ELEVATED TO MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN SUNDAY TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DUE TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG WITH FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
AT THIS TIME.
ANDRADE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/05
000
FXUS64 KSJT 190404
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1104 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE TORNADO WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE BIG COUNTRY
AS THE DRY LINE HAS RETREATED INTO FAR WEST TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 71 97 67 95 65 / 20 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 72 101 68 100 67 / 10 5 5 10 10
JUNCTION 70 94 70 95 69 / 10 5 5 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26
000
FXUS64 KFWD 190316 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1016 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE WILL REMOVE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HAS
CONSIDERABLE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CAPPED
TO DEEP CONVECTION. WHAT APPEARED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE EARLIER WAS
THE THREAT FOR DOWNBURST WINDS OR HEATBURSTS FROM CONVECTION TO
THE WEST. WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND AMPLE ANVIL
DEBRIS SPREADING EASTWARD...A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR THE PHENOMENON
WAS IN PLACE. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA HOWEVER HAS FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES SQUASHED THIS
SCENARIO. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.
ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
DUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...TIMING THE ONSET OF STRATUS...AND THE IMPACT OF
ANY ANVIL CLOUD PRECIPITATION OVER METROPLEX AREA TAF SITES ARE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
REGARDING STRATUS...KEPT MVFR STRATUS IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW
HOURS TOMORROW MORNING AS MOST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL RAMP UP OVER NORTH TX TONIGHT. THIS STRONG JET WILL
HELP KEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE PRESENCE OF STRATUS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE
LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...THEREFORE THERE WILL ONLY BE SHALLOW
LIFT WITHIN THE CORE OF THE JET OVER NORTH TX. THIS SHALLOW LIFT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRATUS TO FORM...BUT THERE IS NO GUARANTEE
THAT THIS WILL PAN OUT. THE LAMP IS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRATUS AS
IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS WHILE THE NAM DOES. AT THIS POINT JUST
KEPT THE STRATUS IN THE FORECAST BUT BUMPED UP THE CIGS TO 2500 FT
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AIRPORT OPERATIONS EVEN IF IT
IS IN PLACE.
REGARDING ANVIL CLOUD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...PLACED A MENTION OF
LIGHT RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST FROM 06 TO 09Z FOR
METROPLEX AREA TAF SITES. THIS WILL ONLY OCCUR IF STORMS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AROUND ABILENE THIS EVENING. AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED SOME GOOD
CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS JUST NORTH OF ABILENE...AND THIS TIPPED THE
SCALE TOWARDS INCLUDING THE LIGHT ANVIL PRECIPITATION IN METROPLEX
AREA TAFS. ANY LIGHT RAIN IN THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE OVER NORTH TX WILL RESULT IN HEAT BURSTS...OR HEAT BURST LIKE
ACTIVITY. ESSENTIALLY VERY GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING
AND DRYING OUT OF THE NEAR SURFACE AIR. IF THE ABILENE ACTIVITY
NEVER BECOMES ESTABLISHED...WILL REMOVE THIS GROUP FROM THE TAFS
IN FUTURE AMENDMENTS.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUT THE
REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE EACH DAY. PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA WILL BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN
FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT...AND THE ADDITION
OF POPS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20...NOT NECESSARILY FOR SUPERCELL
TYPE CONVECTION...BUT FOR VERY HIGH BASED WEAK CONVECTION THAT
COULD CAUSE STRONG GUSTY WINDS VIA HEATBURSTS LATE THIS EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON THE DRY LINE REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL STAY AS FAR WEST AS A
CHILDRESS TO SAN ANGELO LINE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
WHETHER SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL INITIATE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
ENTER THE CWA. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS STRONGER TODAY...AND
THEREFORE STORM MOTIONS WOULD BE MORE EASTERLY. SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WOULD HAVE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO BECOME
SUPERCELLS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. LOCAL OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND DIMINISHED CIN
IS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...WITH THE AIRMASS OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE AT 1500-2500 J/KG AND
HIGHER CIN DUE TO DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 60S. WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ALLOW SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO INITIATE AND ORGANIZE WEST OF
THE CWA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ENTER THE NW ZONES...BUT
BELIEVE THE CELLS MAY WEAKEN A BIT AND BECOME ELEVATED DUE TO THE
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT
EXIST FOR PRIMARILY HAIL/WIND...AND POPS ARE NEAR 20-30 PERCENT IN
THE NW ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR GIANT HAIL OR
TORNADOES DOES NOT LOOK AS HIGH AS IT DID YESTERDAY IN OUR CWA.
CURRENTLY...WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION BASED AT AROUND 14000FT
CONTINUES TO BUBBLE UP OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. MOST OF THE PRECIP
IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT THIS ELEVATED
MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE FORECAST
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THERE ARE
A FEW MODELS NOW INDICATING A MOISTURE PLUME FROM 500-600MB
ENTERING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
ANVILS FROM STORMS TO THE WEST. THE ISSUE IS THAT THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...AND
COINCIDES WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE. THE STAGE
IS SET FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH BASES ABOVE 12000FT.
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL EVAPORATE DUE TO VERY DRY AIR BELOW 600MB...
BUT SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A 50KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE DEVELOPING AND
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS HIGH BASED CONVECTION
TO TRANSFER STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE IN WHAT IS TECHNICALLY A
TYPE OF HEATBURST. THIS IS TOUGH TO COMMUNICATE TO THE PUBLIC IN
SIMPLE TERMS...BUT THE POPS ARE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND THE CHANCE
FOR THAT IS LOW. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT A
LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT...AND THEREFORE HAVE
BUMPED UP SOUTH WINDS TO 20-25 MPH AND MENTIONED GUSTS TO 40 MPH
IN THE ZONES. THIS FORECAST IS NOT OF HIGH CONFIDENCE...PARTLY
BECAUSE IT MAY BE THE FIRST NWS FORECAST THAT HAS EVER TRIED TO
INCLUDE A RISK OF HEATBURSTS IN A ZONE FORECAST. HOWEVER LOOKING
AT ALL OF THE DATA...THE SETUP TONIGHT LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BENEATH ELEVATED RADAR ECHOES. WE
SHALL SEE.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOMORROW AND WILL PUSH THE DRYLINE FARTHER TO THE EAST INTO THE NW
ZONES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CIN SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH OVER THE NW
ZONES FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AND SUPERCELL STORM MOTION WILL
BE EASTERLY. WEST TO EAST STORM TRACKS ON SUNDAY EVENING MEANS
POPS WILL COVER THE AREAS NORTH OF I-20. LOW LEVEL HELICITY RAMPS
UP AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING AND IF SUPERCELLS CAN OVERCOME THE
WEAK CIN AND TAP INTO SURFACE PARCELS...A TORNADO THREAT WILL
EXIST. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY/S PATTERN WITH
THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE SAME PLACE...JUST A LITTLE WEAKER CIN SO
POPS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER/FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
PERSISTENCE AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY MOVE EAST AND
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WORK EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BE WIDESPREAD AND AVERAGE
1/2 TO 1 INCH. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN HIGH
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND DRIER AIR WILL END RAIN
CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
AND INTO THE 60S DUE TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...BUT HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLES INTO
THE AREA...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR NW FLOW MCS ACTIVITY ON
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE NW ZONES. TOO FAR OUT TO RELY ON THE MODEL
FORECASTS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 90 72 89 72 / 5 10 20 10 20
WACO, TX 72 90 73 90 73 / 5 5 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 70 88 70 87 70 / 10 10 20 10 40
DENTON, TX 73 90 71 89 70 / 10 10 20 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 73 89 71 88 71 / 10 10 20 10 30
DALLAS, TX 75 91 74 90 74 / 5 10 20 10 20
TERRELL, TX 72 88 71 89 73 / 5 5 20 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 71 89 72 89 73 / 5 5 5 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 71 89 73 90 73 / 5 5 5 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 71 93 70 92 71 / 5 20 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 190247
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
947 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH FOR COKE...RUNNELS...COLEMAN AND BROWN
COUNTIES. WILL LET THE WATCH EXPIRE FOR THE REMAINING BIG COUNTRY
COUNTIES. LATEST 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DRT AND
MAF...SHOWED A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WHICH HAS KEPT CONVECTION FROM FORMING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 71 97 67 95 65 / 20 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 72 101 68 100 67 / 10 5 5 10 10
JUNCTION 70 94 70 95 69 / 10 5 5 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26
000
FXUS64 KHGX 190242
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
942 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR THE UPDATE. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 91 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 90 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 82 73 82 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...38
000
FXUS64 KCRP 190242 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
942 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE BAND OF CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. LOW STRATUS ALSO
MAKING RETURN ALONG THE COAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE INLAND
OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN SOME MODIFICATIONS TO SKY GRIDS...THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AROUND SCA EARLIER OVER THE SOUTHERN BAYS HAVE
FALLEN BACK TO SCEC RANGE. EXPECT SCEC CONDS WILL PERSIST AS WELL
OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-35 KNOTS
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING TRANSITIONING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI AND THEN BACK TO VFR SUNDAY. KLRD XPCTD TO REMAIN
AT VFR THRU VALID TAF PERIOD. THICK HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUD
DECK WITH MVFR CIGS PROG TO DVLP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. MVFR CLOUD
DECK SHOULD MIX OUT SUNDAY MRNG WITH VFR PREVAILING LATE MRNG THRU
AFTN. MODERATE TO GUSTY SE WINDS TO PREVAIL THRU TAF PERIOD ALL
TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 92 76 91 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 74 89 74 90 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 78 101 78 102 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 74 95 74 96 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 77 84 77 86 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 100 74 99 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 76 92 76 92 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 84 76 86 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KLUB 190229
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
929 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANCE AT REDEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT. THE TORNADO WATCH
WAS CANCELLED FOR THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM.
MOST TTU MESONET SITES HAVE DROPPED BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.
DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...
CURRENT SMALL AREA OF TSRA PASSING AROUND KCDS WITH THE SURFACE
DRY-LINE SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE AIRPORT WITHIN A FEW MINUTES
OF 00Z. RETAINED VCTS FOR AN HOUR THOUGH WILL BE WATCHING POTENTIAL
FOR REDEVELOPMENT NORTH OF KCDS THAT COULD STRENGTHEN IN THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MOVE SOUTHWARD EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE GONE BY MID EVENING WITH DRY
VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING. FLOW WILL VEER TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY.
RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE FA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT THANKS TO STRONG HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND
APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK OFF THE CAPROCK. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THOUGH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WERE HANGING ON ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES. THIS EXTREME HEAT AND DECENT MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH THE
LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING 2000-3000+ J/KG OF SBCAPE GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO LAKE ALAN HENRY LINE. SFC
CONVERGENCE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT GIVEN THE
STRONG HEATING AND RESULTING WEAKENING CAP...IT STILL APPEARS
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL START SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EAST ROW OF
COUNTIES...THOUGH MAY NOT STAY IN THE CWA FOR LONG. STILL...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE SEVERE MENTION FOR THE EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
COULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EAST OR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER
TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS INCREASES. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIM
THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEYOND 06Z.
BEYOND THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES...HOT AND VERY DRY AIR AS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAPROCK RESULTING
IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
FURTHER ELEVATING THE FIRE DANGER. THE LEAD WAVE WITHIN THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND THIS PULL
THE DRYLINE EVER FURTHER EAST...OUT OF THE FA...WITH WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
LONG TERM...
PLAN FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
WITH DRY WESTERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS SUCH...THE CONTINUED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD.
FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE DRYLINE ON
THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
INCREASE. STILL...DO EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND
UPWARD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE LEFT
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARD
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THEY MAY COME UP A BIT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...AND RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR ON THE CAPROCK. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE
AREA EXPERIENCING HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE DRYLINE
PUSHES FURTHER EAST THAN TODAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WINDS WILL BE ON
THE FENCE REGARDING MEETING THE RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT RH VALUES
WILL BE A SLAM DUNK...DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OR
ALL OF THE FA. TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
/AND MOSTLY LIKELY LONGER DURATION OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE/
BUT CURRENT RUN OF MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES. DID NOT GET CUTE ATTM AND INSTEAD DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF/WHERE A RFD AND RFW WILL BE MOST
APPROPRIATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 88 54 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 56 92 56 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 58 92 58 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 60 93 57 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 61 94 59 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 60 92 59 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 63 94 60 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 64 96 62 93 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 64 97 64 95 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 70 102 65 98 62 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KEWX 190145
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
845 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
THE EARLIER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. RECENTLY TWO
SHOWERS DEVELOPED...BUT THEY HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. WILL REMOVE
ISOLATED POP MENTION OUT WEST. HAVE RE-ESTABLISHED TRENDS TO THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
18Z MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS DUE
TO PROXIMITY TO THE DRYLINE AND HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID WEEK ACTIVITY MAY INCLUDE SOME STRONGER STORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAINFALL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE WITH WINDS SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT OR ABOUT 10Z THROUGH 14Z
SUNDAY ALONG THE I35 TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY 17Z SUNDAY. KDRT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE PACIFIC KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN 5-10 DEGREES OVER THIS TIME FRIDAY. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL KEEP
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS S TX. SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SWLY
FLOW WILL TRACK ACROSS W/SW TX ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS...SOUTH
TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN EDGE OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE HILL COUNTRY
AND ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. OTHERWISE CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE PACIFIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SHY OF RECORD HIGHS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR MONDAY FROM SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INCREASE DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO WEST TX
AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME SPOTTY HEAVIER QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL
FLOW PARALLELS THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO EXPECTING AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE
FAIRLY MEAGER AT A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE DRYING TREND
FOR THU-FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND PROBABILITY OF A FEW AIRMASS DAYTIME STORMS WILL BE TOO
LOW TO MENTION. HAVE TRENDED WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RIDGING ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 95 73 94 72 / - - - 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 94 71 93 71 / - - - 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 95 71 94 71 / - - - 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 92 71 92 69 / - 10 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 102 75 102 75 / - 10 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 91 71 91 69 / - - - 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 97 71 97 72 / - - - 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 94 72 93 72 / - - - 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 93 75 92 75 / - - - 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 95 72 94 72 / - - - 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 95 72 93 73 / - - - 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KAMA 190138 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
838 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED OVER THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY...DO NOT EXPECT
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THUS HAVE GONE AND
CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 171 THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT. HAVE
ALSO REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
SO ONLY MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SENT.
CLK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH
THE SETTING SUN AND THEN THEY WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY BY LATE EVENING
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP ON SUNDAY INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS.
GOEHRING
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
STORMS BLOWING UP IN FAR ERN COUNTIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SFC
DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TORNADO WATCH 171 IN EFFECT UNTIL
11 PM THIS EVENING. KEPT POPS IN THRU THE EVENING HOURS IN THAT AREA.
REMAINDER OF FCST AREA SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS TSTMS WILL HEAD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS STATES SUN AND MON WITH MINOR EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING
ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FAR NRN COUNTIES FOR
SUN AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...MOST
MODELS ARE DRY OR KEEP MAIN PRECIP SHIELD NORTH OF FCST AREA BECAUSE
OF TOO MUCH WESTERLY FLOW. DITTO FOR MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DECIDED ON
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS BY RESTRICTING SLGT CHC POPS
TO NRN ZONES ONLY.
TUE THRU WED SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS TX AND OK PNHDLS AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS EWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. UA PATTERN AMPLIFIES LATER NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVG ACROSS SRN PLAINS TUE THRU THURSDAY. HAVE RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS
THU AND THU NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF
UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVERHEAD LONGER AS PER SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS...THEN POPS CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED. ALSO KEPT IN SLGT CHC
POPS FRI INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS PER COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF. AGAIN...IF RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ON LONGER OVER OUR FCST AREA THAN
PROGGED...POP THREAT WOULD BE REDUCED. TIME WILL TELL.
ANDRADE
FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. ELEVATED TO MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN SUNDAY TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DUE TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG WITH FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
AT THIS TIME.
ANDRADE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...
GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...
OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.
&&
$$
15/05
000
FXUS64 KFWD 190005
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
705 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...TIMING THE ONSET OF STRATUS...AND THE IMPACT OF
ANY ANVIL CLOUD PRECIPITATION OVER METROPLEX AREA TAF SITES ARE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
REGARDING STRATUS...KEPT MVFR STRATUS IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW
HOURS TOMORROW MORNING AS MOST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL RAMP UP OVER NORTH TX TONIGHT. THIS STRONG JET WILL
HELP KEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE PRESENCE OF STRATUS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE
LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...THEREFORE THERE WILL ONLY BE SHALLOW
LIFT WITHIN THE CORE OF THE JET OVER NORTH TX. THIS SHALLOW LIFT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRATUS TO FORM...BUT THERE IS NO GUARANTEE
THAT THIS WILL PAN OUT. THE LAMP IS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRATUS AS
IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY. THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS WHILE THE NAM DOES. AT THIS POINT JUST
KEPT THE STRATUS IN THE FORECAST BUT BUMPED UP THE CIGS TO 2500 FT
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AIRPORT OPERATIONS EVEN IF IT
IS IN PLACE.
REGARDING ANVIL CLOUD PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...PLACED A MENTION OF
LIGHT RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST FROM 06 TO 09Z FOR
METROPLEX AREA TAF SITES. THIS WILL ONLY OCCUR IF STORMS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AROUND ABILENE THIS EVENING. AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION VISIBLE SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED SOME GOOD
CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS JUST NORTH OF ABILENE...AND THIS TIPPED THE
SCALE TOWARDS INCLUDING THE LIGHT ANVIL PRECIPITATION IN METROPLEX
AREA TAFS. ANY LIGHT RAIN IN THE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE OVER NORTH TX WILL RESULT IN HEAT BURSTS...OR HEAT BURST LIKE
ACTIVITY. ESSENTIALLY VERY GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING
AND DRYING OUT OF THE NEAR SURFACE AIR. IF THE ABILENE ACTIVITY
NEVER BECOMES ESTABLISHED...WILL REMOVE THIS GROUP FROM THE TAFS
IN FUTURE AMENDMENTS.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUT THE
REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE EACH DAY. PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA WILL BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN
FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT...AND THE ADDITION
OF POPS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20...NOT NECESSARILY FOR SUPERCELL
TYPE CONVECTION...BUT FOR VERY HIGH BASED WEAK CONVECTION THAT
COULD CAUSE STRONG GUSTY WINDS VIA HEATBURSTS LATE THIS EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON THE DRY LINE REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL STAY AS FAR WEST AS A
CHILDRESS TO SAN ANGELO LINE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
WHETHER SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL INITIATE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
ENTER THE CWA. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS STRONGER TODAY...AND
THEREFORE STORM MOTIONS WOULD BE MORE EASTERLY. SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WOULD HAVE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO BECOME
SUPERCELLS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. LOCAL OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND DIMINISHED CIN
IS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...WITH THE AIRMASS OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE AT 1500-2500 J/KG AND
HIGHER CIN DUE TO DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 60S. WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ALLOW SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO INITIATE AND ORGANIZE WEST OF
THE CWA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ENTER THE NW ZONES...BUT
BELIEVE THE CELLS MAY WEAKEN A BIT AND BECOME ELEVATED DUE TO THE
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT
EXIST FOR PRIMARILY HAIL/WIND...AND POPS ARE NEAR 20-30 PERCENT IN
THE NW ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR GIANT HAIL OR
TORNADOES DOES NOT LOOK AS HIGH AS IT DID YESTERDAY IN OUR CWA.
CURRENTLY...WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION BASED AT AROUND 14000FT
CONTINUES TO BUBBLE UP OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. MOST OF THE PRECIP
IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT THIS ELEVATED
MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE FORECAST
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THERE ARE
A FEW MODELS NOW INDICATING A MOISTURE PLUME FROM 500-600MB
ENTERING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
ANVILS FROM STORMS TO THE WEST. THE ISSUE IS THAT THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...AND
COINCIDES WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE. THE STAGE
IS SET FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH BASES ABOVE 12000FT.
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL EVAPORATE DUE TO VERY DRY AIR BELOW 600MB...
BUT SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A 50KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE DEVELOPING AND
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS HIGH BASED CONVECTION
TO TRANSFER STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE IN WHAT IS TECHNICALLY A
TYPE OF HEATBURST. THIS IS TOUGH TO COMMUNICATE TO THE PUBLIC IN
SIMPLE TERMS...BUT THE POPS ARE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND THE CHANCE
FOR THAT IS LOW. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT A
LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT...AND THEREFORE HAVE
BUMPED UP SOUTH WINDS TO 20-25 MPH AND MENTIONED GUSTS TO 40 MPH
IN THE ZONES. THIS FORECAST IS NOT OF HIGH CONFIDENCE...PARTLY
BECAUSE IT MAY BE THE FIRST NWS FORECAST THAT HAS EVER TRIED TO
INCLUDE A RISK OF HEATBURSTS IN A ZONE FORECAST. HOWEVER LOOKING
AT ALL OF THE DATA...THE SETUP TONIGHT LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BENEATH ELEVATED RADAR ECHOES. WE
SHALL SEE.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOMORROW AND WILL PUSH THE DRYLINE FARTHER TO THE EAST INTO THE NW
ZONES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CIN SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH OVER THE NW
ZONES FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AND SUPERCELL STORM MOTION WILL
BE EASTERLY. WEST TO EAST STORM TRACKS ON SUNDAY EVENING MEANS
POPS WILL COVER THE AREAS NORTH OF I-20. LOW LEVEL HELICITY RAMPS
UP AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING AND IF SUPERCELLS CAN OVERCOME THE
WEAK CIN AND TAP INTO SURFACE PARCELS...A TORNADO THREAT WILL
EXIST. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY/S PATTERN WITH
THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE SAME PLACE...JUST A LITTLE WEAKER CIN SO
POPS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER/FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
PERSISTENCE AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY MOVE EAST AND
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WORK EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BE WIDESPREAD AND AVERAGE
1/2 TO 1 INCH. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN HIGH
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND DRIER AIR WILL END RAIN
CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
AND INTO THE 60S DUE TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...BUT HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLES INTO
THE AREA...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR NW FLOW MCS ACTIVITY ON
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE NW ZONES. TOO FAR OUT TO RELY ON THE MODEL
FORECASTS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 90 72 89 72 / 20 10 20 10 20
WACO, TX 72 90 73 90 73 / 10 5 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 70 88 70 87 70 / 20 10 20 10 40
DENTON, TX 73 90 71 89 70 / 20 10 20 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 73 89 71 88 71 / 20 10 20 10 30
DALLAS, TX 75 91 74 90 74 / 20 10 20 10 20
TERRELL, TX 72 88 71 89 73 / 10 5 20 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 71 89 72 89 73 / 10 5 5 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 71 89 73 90 73 / 5 5 5 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 71 93 70 92 71 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 182351
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
651 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
CURRENT SMALL AREA OF TSRA PASSING AROUND KCDS WITH THE SURFACE
DRY-LINE SHOULD BE MOSTLY EAST OF THE AIRPORT WITHIN A FEW MINUTES
OF 00Z. RETAINED VCTS FOR AN HOUR THOUGH WILL BE WATCHING POTENTIAL
FOR REDEVELOPMENT NORTH OF KCDS THAT COULD STRENGTHEN IN THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MOVE SOUTHWARD EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE GONE BY MID EVENING WITH DRY
VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING. FLOW WILL VEER TO WESTERLY ON SUNDAY.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE FA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT THANKS TO STRONG HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND
APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK OFF THE CAPROCK. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THOUGH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WERE HANGING ON ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES. THIS EXTREME HEAT AND DECENT MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH THE
LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING 2000-3000+ J/KG OF SBCAPE GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO LAKE ALAN HENRY LINE. SFC
CONVERGENCE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT GIVEN THE
STRONG HEATING AND RESULTING WEAKENING CAP...IT STILL APPEARS
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL START SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EAST ROW OF
COUNTIES...THOUGH MAY NOT STAY IN THE CWA FOR LONG. STILL...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE SEVERE MENTION FOR THE EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
COULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EAST OR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER
TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS INCREASES. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIM
THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEYOND 06Z.
BEYOND THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES...HOT AND VERY DRY AIR AS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAPROCK RESULTING
IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
FURTHER ELEVATING THE FIRE DANGER. THE LEAD WAVE WITHIN THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND THIS PULL
THE DRYLINE EVER FURTHER EAST...OUT OF THE FA...WITH WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
LONG TERM...
PLAN FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
WITH DRY WESTERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS SUCH...THE CONTINUED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD.
FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE DRYLINE ON
THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
INCREASE. STILL...DO EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND
UPWARD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE LEFT
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARD
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THEY MAY COME UP A BIT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...AND RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR ON THE CAPROCK. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE
AREA EXPERIENCING HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE DRYLINE
PUSHES FURTHER EAST THAN TODAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WINDS WILL BE ON
THE FENCE REGARDING MEETING THE RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT RH VALUES
WILL BE A SLAM DUNK...DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OR
ALL OF THE FA. TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
/AND MOSTLY LIKELY LONGER DURATION OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE/
BUT CURRENT RUN OF MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES. DID NOT GET CUTE ATTM AND INSTEAD DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF/WHERE A RFD AND RFW WILL BE MOST
APPROPRIATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 88 54 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 56 92 56 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 58 92 58 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 60 93 57 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 61 94 60 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 60 92 59 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 63 94 60 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 64 96 62 93 58 / 20 0 0 0 0
SPUR 64 97 64 95 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 70 102 65 98 62 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
99/99/05
000
FXUS64 KAMA 182344 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH
THE SETTING SUN AND THEN THEY WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY BY LATE EVENING
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE TAF SITES. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP ON SUNDAY INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS.
GOEHRING
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
STORMS BLOWING UP IN FAR ERN COUNTIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SFC
DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TORNADO WATCH 171 IN EFFECT UNTIL
11 PM THIS EVENING. KEPT POPS IN THRU THE EVENING HOURS IN THAT AREA.
REMAINDER OF FCST AREA SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS TSTMS WILL HEAD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS STATES SUN AND MON WITH MINOR EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING
ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FAR NRN COUNTIES FOR
SUN AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...MOST
MODELS ARE DRY OR KEEP MAIN PRECIP SHIELD NORTH OF FCST AREA BECAUSE
OF TOO MUCH WESTERLY FLOW. DITTO FOR MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DECIDED ON
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS BY RESTRICTING SLGT CHC POPS
TO NRN ZONES ONLY.
TUE THRU WED SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS TX AND OK PNHDLS AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS EWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. UA PATTERN AMPLIFIES LATER NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVG ACROSS SRN PLAINS TUE THRU THURSDAY. HAVE RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS
THU AND THU NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF
UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVERHEAD LONGER AS PER SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS...THEN POPS CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED. ALSO KEPT IN SLGT CHC
POPS FRI INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS PER COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF. AGAIN...IF RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ON LONGER OVER OUR FCST AREA THAN
PROGGED...POP THREAT WOULD BE REDUCED. TIME WILL TELL.
ANDRADE
FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. ELEVATED TO MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN SUNDAY TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DUE TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG WITH FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
AT THIS TIME.
ANDRADE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...
GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...
OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KCRP 182339 AAB
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THIS EVENING TRANSITIONING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT
KCRP/KVCT/KALI AND THEN BACK TO VFR SUNDAY. KLRD XPCTD TO REMAIN
AT VFR THRU VALID TAF PERIOD. THICK HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUD
DECK WITH MVFR CIGS PROG TO DVLP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AT KCRP/KVCT/KALI. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. MVFR CLOUD
DECK SHOULD MIX OUT SUNDAY MRNG WITH VFR PREVAILING LATE MRNG THRU
AFTN. MODERATE TO GUSTY SE WINDS TO PREVAIL THRU TAF PERIOD ALL
TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 92 76 91 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 74 89 74 90 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 78 101 78 102 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 74 95 74 96 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 77 84 77 86 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 100 74 99 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 76 92 76 92 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 84 76 86 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
RH/79...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KAMA 182333
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
STORMS BLOWING UP IN FAR ERN COUNTIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SFC
DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TORNADO WATCH 171 IN EFFECT UNTIL
11 PM THIS EVENING. KEPT POPS IN THRU THE EVENING HOURS IN THAT AREA.
REMAINDER OF FCST AREA SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS TSTMS WILL HEAD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS STATES SUN AND MON WITH MINOR EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING
ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FAR NRN COUNTIES FOR
SUN AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...MOST
MODELS ARE DRY OR KEEP MAIN PRECIP SHIELD NORTH OF FCST AREA BECAUSE
OF TOO MUCH WESTERLY FLOW. DITTO FOR MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DECIDED ON
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS BY RESTRICTING SLGT CHC POPS
TO NRN ZONES ONLY.
TUE THRU WED SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS TX AND OK PNHDLS AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS EWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. UA PATTERN AMPLIFIES LATER NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVG ACROSS SRN PLAINS TUE THRU THURSDAY. HAVE RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS
THU AND THU NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF
UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVERHEAD LONGER AS PER SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS...THEN POPS CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED. ALSO KEPT IN SLGT CHC
POPS FRI INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS PER COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF. AGAIN...IF RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ON LONGER OVER OUR FCST AREA THAN
PROGGED...POP THREAT WOULD BE REDUCED. TIME WILL TELL.
ANDRADE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. ELEVATED TO MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN SUNDAY TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DUE TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG WITH FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
AT THIS TIME.
ANDRADE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 57 89 52 83 50 / 0 0 0 5 5
BEAVER OK 59 85 50 80 50 / 10 20 10 20 20
BOISE CITY OK 53 83 45 77 47 / 0 20 10 20 20
BORGER TX 61 89 56 83 53 / 0 5 0 10 10
BOYS RANCH TX 56 87 51 83 49 / 0 0 0 10 10
CANYON TX 56 89 52 83 49 / 0 0 0 5 5
CLARENDON TX 60 92 56 86 53 / 5 0 0 5 5
DALHART TX 52 85 46 80 47 / 0 5 5 10 10
GUYMON OK 58 85 49 80 49 / 0 20 10 20 20
HEREFORD TX 56 88 52 84 49 / 0 0 0 5 5
LIPSCOMB TX 59 87 51 82 52 / 20 20 5 10 20
PAMPA TX 59 88 53 83 51 / 5 0 0 5 10
SHAMROCK TX 61 91 56 87 54 / 20 0 0 5 5
WELLINGTON TX 62 93 59 90 56 / 20 0 0 5 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...
GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...
OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHGX 182328
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
628 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES FROM SMOKE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH JUST SOME THICK HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT TO SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THESE CEILINGS SHOULD MIX OUT 15-16Z
TOMORROW. PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHTER TOMORROW...SO WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY GUSTS IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SE TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE TO 850 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HELP
KEEP A CAP IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CAP WILL LIKELY
KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IT
WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE MEXICAN FIRES
OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY IF NOT INTO TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGH AND NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WELL.
A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS SHOWS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
ON TUESDAY SHOULD AFFECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES
THEN SHOW THE AIR MASS INCREASING IN MOISTURE WITH PW/S REACHING
1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY...AND
DESTABILIZING WITH LAPSE RATES AND CAPES INCREASING. EXPECT THAT
THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. AS EXPLAINED ON THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...EXPECT A
BOUNDARY TO LINGER AND RAIN CHANCES TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL HELP DIMINISH THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ON SUNDAY AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 91 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 90 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 82 73 82 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42
000
FXUS64 KEWX 182315 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
615 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE WITH WINDS SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT OR ABOUT 10Z THROUGH 14Z
SUNDAY ALONG THE I35 TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY 17Z SUNDAY. KDRT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE PACIFIC KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN 5-10 DEGREES OVER THIS TIME FRIDAY. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL KEEP
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS S TX. SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SWLY
FLOW WILL TRACK ACROSS W/SW TX ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS...SOUTH
TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN EDGE OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE HILL COUNTRY
AND ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. OTHERWISE CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE PACIFIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SHY OF RECORD HIGHS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR MONDAY FROM SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INCREASE DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO WEST TX
AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME SPOTTY HEAVIER QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL
FLOW PARALLELS THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO EXPECTING AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE
FAIRLY MEAGER AT A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE DRYING TREND
FOR THU-FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND PROBABILITY OF A FEW AIRMASS DAYTIME STORMS WILL BE TOO
LOW TO MENTION. HAVE TRENDED WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RIDGING ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 94 73 94 72 / - 10 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 93 71 93 71 / - 10 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 94 71 94 71 / - 10 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 92 71 92 69 / - 10 10 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 102 75 102 75 / 10 10 10 10 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 91 71 91 69 / - 10 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 97 71 97 72 / - 10 - 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 93 72 93 72 / - 10 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 92 75 92 75 / 10 10 - 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 94 72 94 72 / - 10 - 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 94 72 93 73 / - 10 - 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
000
FXUS64 KBRO 182310 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
610 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST
PACKAGE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
GENERALLY A BROKEN RECORD FORECAST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SLOWLY
DEVELOPING/MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL ENHANCE THE SEMI-PERMANENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LEE
OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND THE WESTERN GULF FOR ONE MORE DAY. THAT
MEANS GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WITH SUSTAINED VALUES RAMPING INTO THE LOW-MID 20S
AND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS...FOLLOWED BY THE
NOCTURNAL DROP TOWARD BUT NOT BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
AS FOR CLOUDS...DRY AIR WITHIN THE INVERSION ENSURES RAPID MIX-OUT
OF THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING SOUP...WHICH WILL FLIRT
WITH THE IFR/MVFR BOUNDARY AT 1K FEET BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z. ONCE
MIXED...SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CIRRUS PREVAILS THOUGH
HIGH LEVEL DRYING APPEARS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...SMOKE FROM THE LAST OF AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN
YUCATAN STATE WILL CONTINUE ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE VALLEY AND
SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS HAZE/MIST. VISIBILITY
SHOULD RISE ABOVE THRESHOLDS NEAR THE GROUND...BUT HAZE ALOFT
LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR SUNDAY WHICH COULD RESTRICT
VISIBILITY A LITTLE IN THE MIXING LAYER...3 TO 5K FEET OR SO...ON
APPROACH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SUMMER SWELTER HAS ARRIVED
FOR THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE MORE LIKE LATE
JUNE AND EARLY JULY THAN MID MAY. THAT SAID...THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS
HAVE HAD STRETCHES IN MAY THAT WERE SIMILAR IF NOT HOTTER...AND THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOW AND JULY IS THE GENERAL STRENGTH OF
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH OWES TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...HAZY SKIES AND MODERATE
TO UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY COURTESY OF THE LAST OF THE AGRICULTURAL
BURNING IN YUCATAN DON`T TYPICALLY COME WITH LATE JUNE/JULY HEAT.
SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MID/UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL DO
LITTLE TO AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
SULTRY NIGHTS WITH LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND BECOMING
OVERCAST BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...BOOKENDING A HAZY HOT AND BREEZY DAY ON
SUNDAY. THE SUBTLE CHANGE...WHICH INVOLVES A FLATTENING 500 MB
RIDGE AND VEERING WINDS ABOVE 700 MB TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH THIS
(SATURDAY) AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS...1000-500 MB THICKNESS...850
TEMPERATURE...ETC. PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO EXPECT NEARLY THE SAME
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY AS THEY WERE ON FRIDAY
AND TODAY. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE 90S EXCEPT JUST OVER 100 ACROSS
THE ZAPATA PLAINS...LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES...AND FEELS LIKE
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER 100 IN ALL AREAS EACH AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TOWARD THE COAST
BY MID EVENING AND HOLD ALL NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 80S WELL
INLAND BY MIDNIGHT FALLING INTO THE 70S BEFORE DAYBREAK.
AS FOR AIR QUALITY...VALUES FOR FINE PARTICULATE
MATTER...DUST/HAZE/SMOKE ETC...PASSED 100 THIS MORNING MID VALLEY
WHICH PUTS HIDALGO/WESTERN CAMERON/STARR IN UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH NOTHING TO CHANGE
THE TYPE OF AIR MASS AND THE LONG FETCH COMING FROM THE YUCATAN.
WHILE THE WIND TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE PARTICULATES...THE STRENGTH OF
THE WIND MIXES THEM TO A DEGREE AND SHOULD KEEP VALUES FROM RISING
INTO MORE DANGEROUS TERRITORY. FOR MORE...SURF TO
HTTP://TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV AND CLICK ON "AIR".
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A LARGE CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW IN MOVING EAST
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NOT MOVING EAST OF TEXAS UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY.
A HOT AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SET UP OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO
PROVIDE ANY HIGHER THEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS
ALREADY IN THE FORECAST ANYTIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THIS AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INITIATION OF CONVECTION IS
LIKELY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OR OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO AND POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS
REMAIN PERSISTENT ON THIS SCENARIO BUT GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN RATHER
LOW WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LIMITED UP TO 800MB. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS
PASSES TO THE EAST AND STRONG 500MB HIGH BUILDS BACK NORTH FROM
MEXICO THE THREAT FOR THUNDER AND ANY CHANCE OF RAIN ENDS. THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY.
TEMPERATURES START OFF HOT WITH THE WARMEST 850MB TEMPERATURES OF
THE WEEK RUNNING 23-25C. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS AND
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LOWER TEMPERATURES DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20C BY THURSDAY. SURFACE TEMPS FOLLOW THIS TREND
WITH THE MAX TEMPS PEAKING MONDAY AND LOWERING TO NORMAL BY MID
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN RATHER WARM AND SULTRY WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NOT ABATING MUCH AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...STATUS QUO HERE AS
WELL...WITH THE USUAL FLIP-FLOP OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
AND LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
STRONGER ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND SOMEWHAT LIGHTER OVER THE
DEEPER GULF WHERE THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME
SYNOPTIC FORCING PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...WHICH NEVER
REALLY STRENGTHENS OWING TO THE STEADY STATE CONDITION OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW.
THUS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/WINDS FOR LAGUNA
MADRE WATERS ON SUNDAY...WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS AT MOST DURING THE
DAY ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO EDGE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
REMAIN JUST BELOW. WINDS IN THE 850-925 LAYER SIT IN THE 25-29 KNOT
RANGE TONIGHT WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES AT OR A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN AMBIENT AIR SHOULD PROVIDE A RARE NOCTURNAL
MARINE LAYER TO KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 16-18 KNOT RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 20-23 KNOTS OR SO. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PUSH ACROSS
THE 20 KNOT SUSTAINED THRESHOLD AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE A COUPLE
KNOTS WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENING JUST A TAD. FOR
NOW...HAVE WORDED AS `NEAR 20 KNOTS`.
SEAS HAVE RISEN TOWARD 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON OFFSHORE AND EXPECT
VALUES TO MAINTAIN OR RISE A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT. DID NOT POP A 6
FOOT FORECAST JUST YET BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK TO REMAIN
NEAR SCEC LEVELS OR EVEN PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAGUNA. THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO TEXAS.
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ALONG THE UPPER GULF COAST WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THURSDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS AND SEAS
LOWERING SLIGHTLY.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
000
FXUS64 KSJT 182305
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
605 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH FOR THE BIG COUNTRY THROUGH 11PM. INCLUDED TSTMS IN
KABI. WATCH OUT FOR SUPERCELLS THAT PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...WIND GUST
IN EXCESS OF 50KTS...AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THIS 04Z. SOUTH OF THE
AREA ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
CURRENTLY WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE BIG
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPES OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AHEAD OF A DRYLINE JUST TO OUR WEST.
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WAS OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. THERE IS EXTREME INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR FOR
POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...NORTHERN CONCHO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
11 PM FOR THESE AREAS. COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE A RUN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND BE LOCATED NEAR A CROSS PLAINS TO JUNCTION LINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM MODEL TAKES THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WOULD BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. WILL
GO WITH ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TSTMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. IT WILL BE A REPEAT
MONDAY...WITH THE DRYLINE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN CWFA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH ISOLD POPS IN THE SAME AREA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME INSTABILITY
AND GOOD 0-6KM SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ANY STORM QUICKLY BECOMING
SEVERE...IF THE MID LEVEL CAP IS BREACHED.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND TSTMS WILL
BE DURING THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE WILL BE STILL BE IN
THE AREA...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX AGAIN DUE TO THE
DECENT INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM SHEAR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOOKS MAINLY VERY WARM AND DRY THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 71 97 67 95 65 / 20 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 72 101 68 100 67 / 10 5 5 10 10
JUNCTION 70 94 70 95 69 / 10 5 5 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
15/26/99
000
FXUS64 KMAF 182246
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
546 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY WILL DIMINISH
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY
BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WESTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.
VERY DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AND
NEAR RECORD HEAT.
THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW FAR EASTWARD THE DRYLINE
WILL MIX THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KMAF SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. THE DRYLINE QUICKLY MOVED
EAST OF MIDLAND. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE TTU MESONET
SHOW THAT THE DRYLINE HAS MIXED TO NEAR A FLUVANNA TO ST. LAWRENCE
LINE AT PRESENT TIME. PRIMARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
MIX FARTHER TO THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS KEPT THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FROM JUST EAST OF MIDLAND
TO JUST WEST OF SANDERSON. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE ADJUSTED THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA FARTHER EAST. I WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT. A 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CWA
AND AREAS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CWA HAVE FORECAST 700 MB
TEMPS OF 13-14C AT 00Z THIS EVENING. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
OVERCOME A CAP LIKE THAT...PROBABLY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TIME FOR DRIER AIR MIX FARTHER EASTWARD....WHICH
OF COURSE WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
OUR AREA AND CERTAINLY DIMINISH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WHILE THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS DOES SHOW AROUND 2000 J/KG CAPE OVER SCURRY COUNTY
PRESENTLY...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT YET SEEN VIA RADAR OR SATELLITE.
FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW ORDER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. IF A
THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO REACH STRONG LEVELS...AND WILL PLACE THAT WORDING IN TODAY`S
GRAPHIC.
WE START TO SEE SOME INTERESTING CHANCES BY MID WEEK. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEAST SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
ALVIN COULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FOR NOW...WE HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT POP GRIDS
FORECAST AND RE-EVALUATE RAIN POTENTIAL WITH LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 95 60 95 / 0 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 96 61 97 / 10 0 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 65 95 62 96 / 0 0 10 0
DRYDEN TX 68 100 67 101 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 68 97 65 98 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 60 93 59 93 / 0 0 10 0
MARFA TX 50 87 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 95 62 97 / 0 0 10 0
ODESSA TX 66 95 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 63 101 61 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...
DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
80/03
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182053
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
253 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO THE
90S THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD
EDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES COMING AROUND THE BROADER FLOW IN THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ALOFT STRONG
ENOUGH FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO MIX DOWN EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
DOWN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA IF PM MIXING IS DEEP
ENOUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL CURRENTLY SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. SINCE THE GFS OFTEN ERRS ON
THE HIGH SIDE...WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERALL
PATTERN SHIFTS THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND TAKE TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STALLS OUT TO
OUR EAST FRIDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS ESTABLISHED
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. IF THAT HIGH PRESSURE IS FAR ENOUGH EAST
THE RESULTING FLOW PATTERN MAY BRING IN ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO
ESTABLISH A DRY LINE OVER WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. IF A
DRY LINE DOES DEVELOP...IT WOULD LIKELY OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE BIG
BEND AREA AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS WOULD BRING THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS OVERALL PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z-20/00Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS EVENING.
NAM/RAP BOTH INDICATE WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNDOWN
AHEAD OF TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND 06Z. DOWNSLOPE WINDS AT KELP SHOULD
SNEAK UP INTO AWW CRITERIA...20KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 30. WIND
SPEEDS AFTER DARK TEND TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ERRATIC AND
GUSTY...BUT COULD PEAK AT 35 KNOTS EVEN AS SUSTAINED WINDS DROP
BACK BELOW 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
LIGHTER WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING ON SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ARE STARTING TO COME UP AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MAX
WINDS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG BY SPRING STANDARDS...THEY WILL
REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...GENERALLY 20 TO 25 MPH AT THE 20-FOOT
LEVEL. EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS AND A HAINES INDEX RANGING FROM 5
TO 6 WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
RED FLAG CRITERIA ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS
PICK UP AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY THOUGH THEY
WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK TO THE 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY. LONGER RANGE TRENDS SUGGEST THE DRYLINE MAY BACK UP TO
THE RIO GRANDE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK... INTRODUCING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 67 91 67 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 60 90 59 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 56 88 55 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 56 86 56 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 41 65 42 62 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 86 57 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 49 81 50 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 52 87 53 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 49 83 53 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 89 64 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 54 89 52 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 60 94 61 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 54 86 55 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
FABENS 62 93 63 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 59 89 59 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 88 64 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 48 87 46 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
HATCH 57 83 57 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 56 87 58 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 54 91 56 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 50 76 48 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 44 76 44 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 44 75 41 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 46 77 46 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 54 82 54 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 53 85 53 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 44 77 46 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 52 80 54 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 86 47 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 37 83 37 81 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 51 80 53 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 52 86 54 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 52 86 53 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 87 57 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 51 81 51 81 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.
&&
$$
21/25
000
FXUS64 KHGX 182035
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SE TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE TO 850 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HELP
KEEP A CAP IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CAP WILL LIKELY
KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IT
WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE MEXICAN FIRES
OVERHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY IF NOT INTO TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME HIGH AND NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WELL.
A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS SHOWS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
ON TUESDAY SHOULD AFFECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES
THEN SHOW THE AIR MASS INCREASING IN MOISTURE WITH PW/S REACHING
1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY...AND
DESTABILIZING WITH LAPSE RATES AND CAPES INCREASING. EXPECT THAT
THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. AS EXPLAINED ON THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...EXPECT A
BOUNDARY TO LINGER AND RAIN CHANCES TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL HELP DIMINISH THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.
40
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT ON SUNDAY AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1204 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
OTHER THAN REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES FROM SMOKE...GENERALLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH 05Z. MOISTURE BENEATH THE CAP WILL ALLOW
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AGAIN. LEANED TOWARD PERSISTENCE ONCE AGAIN
WITH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MIXING OUT BETWEEN 15-16Z. GRADIENT
LOOKS TIGHTER ON SUNDAY SO WILL ADD A GUST GROUP. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 91 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 90 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 74 82 73 82 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...43
000
FXUS64 KEWX 182027
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE PACIFIC KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN 5-10 DEGREES OVER THIS TIME FRIDAY. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL KEEP
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS S TX. SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SWLY
FLOW WILL TRACK ACROSS W/SW TX ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS...SOUTH
TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN EDGE OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE HILL COUNTRY
AND ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. OTHERWISE CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE PACIFIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SHY OF RECORD HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR MONDAY FROM SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INCREASE DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO WEST TX
AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME SPOTTY HEAVIER QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL
FLOW PARALLELS THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO EXPECTING AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE
FAIRLY MEAGER AT A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE DRYING TREND
FOR THU-FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND PROBABILITY OF A FEW AIRMASS DAYTIME STORMS WILL BE TOO
LOW TO MENTION. HAVE TRENDED WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RIDGING ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 93 72 94 72 / - 10 10 - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 92 70 94 70 / - 10 10 - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 93 70 94 70 / - 10 10 - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 70 92 70 / - 10 10 - 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 100 74 102 75 / 20 10 10 - 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 91 70 92 69 / - 10 10 - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 96 71 96 72 / 10 10 10 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 91 71 91 71 / - 10 10 - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 92 72 93 75 / - 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 94 73 94 74 / - 10 10 - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 73 94 73 / - 10 10 - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
000
FXUS64 KSJT 182027
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...
CURRENTLY WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE BIG
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPES OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AHEAD OF A DRYLINE JUST TO OUR WEST.
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WAS OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. THERE IS EXTREME INSTABILITY AND ENOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR FOR
POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...NORTHERN CONCHO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
11 PM FOR THESE AREAS. COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE A RUN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND BE LOCATED NEAR A CROSS PLAINS TO JUNCTION LINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE NAM MODEL TAKES THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY 00Z MONDAY...WHICH WOULD BE WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. WILL
GO WITH ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TSTMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND. IT WILL BE A REPEAT
MONDAY...WITH THE DRYLINE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN CWFA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH ISOLD POPS IN THE SAME AREA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME INSTABILITY
AND GOOD 0-6KM SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ANY STORM QUICKLY BECOMING
SEVERE...IF THE MID LEVEL CAP IS BREACHED.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND TSTMS WILL
BE DURING THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE WILL BE STILL BE IN
THE AREA...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX AGAIN DUE TO THE
DECENT INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM SHEAR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOOKS MAINLY VERY WARM AND DRY THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 71 97 67 95 65 / 20 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 72 101 68 100 67 / 10 5 5 10 10
JUNCTION 70 94 70 95 69 / 10 5 5 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KFWD 182024
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUT THE
REGION IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE EACH DAY. PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA WILL BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN
FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT...AND THE ADDITION
OF POPS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20...NOT NECESSARILY FOR SUPERCELL
TYPE CONVECTION...BUT FOR VERY HIGH BASED WEAK CONVECTION THAT
COULD CAUSE STRONG GUSTY WINDS VIA HEATBURSTS LATE THIS EVENING.
THIS AFTERNOON THE DRY LINE REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL STAY AS FAR WEST AS A
CHILDRESS TO SAN ANGELO LINE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME CONCERNS ABOUT
WHETHER SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL INITIATE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
ENTER THE CWA. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS STRONGER TODAY...AND
THEREFORE STORM MOTIONS WOULD BE MORE EASTERLY. SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WOULD HAVE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO BECOME
SUPERCELLS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. LOCAL OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND DIMINISHED CIN
IS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...WITH THE AIRMASS OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE WITH CAPE AT 1500-2500 J/KG AND
HIGHER CIN DUE TO DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 60S. WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE SHOULD
ALLOW SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO INITIATE AND ORGANIZE WEST OF
THE CWA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ENTER THE NW ZONES...BUT
BELIEVE THE CELLS MAY WEAKEN A BIT AND BECOME ELEVATED DUE TO THE
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT
EXIST FOR PRIMARILY HAIL/WIND...AND POPS ARE NEAR 20-30 PERCENT IN
THE NW ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR GIANT HAIL OR
TORNADOES DOES NOT LOOK AS HIGH AS IT DID YESTERDAY IN OUR CWA.
CURRENTLY...WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION BASED AT AROUND 14000FT
CONTINUES TO BUBBLE UP OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. MOST OF THE PRECIP
IS EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT THIS ELEVATED
MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE FORECAST
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THERE ARE
A FEW MODELS NOW INDICATING A MOISTURE PLUME FROM 500-600MB
ENTERING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
ANVILS FROM STORMS TO THE WEST. THE ISSUE IS THAT THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...AND
COINCIDES WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE. THE STAGE
IS SET FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH BASES ABOVE 12000FT.
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL EVAPORATE DUE TO VERY DRY AIR BELOW 600MB...
BUT SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A 50KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE DEVELOPING AND
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS HIGH BASED CONVECTION
TO TRANSFER STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE IN WHAT IS TECHNICALLY A
TYPE OF HEATBURST. THIS IS TOUGH TO COMMUNICATE TO THE PUBLIC IN
SIMPLE TERMS...BUT THE POPS ARE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND THE CHANCE
FOR THAT IS LOW. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT A
LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT...AND THEREFORE HAVE
BUMPED UP SOUTH WINDS TO 20-25 MPH AND MENTIONED GUSTS TO 40 MPH
IN THE ZONES. THIS FORECAST IS NOT OF HIGH CONFIDENCE...PARTLY
BECAUSE IT MAY BE THE FIRST NWS FORECAST THAT HAS EVER TRIED TO
INCLUDE A RISK OF HEATBURSTS IN A ZONE FORECAST. HOWEVER LOOKING
AT ALL OF THE DATA...THE SETUP TONIGHT LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BENEATH ELEVATED RADAR ECHOES. WE
SHALL SEE.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOMORROW AND WILL PUSH THE DRYLINE FARTHER TO THE EAST INTO THE NW
ZONES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CIN SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH OVER THE NW
ZONES FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AND SUPERCELL STORM MOTION WILL
BE EASTERLY. WEST TO EAST STORM TRACKS ON SUNDAY EVENING MEANS
POPS WILL COVER THE AREAS NORTH OF I-20. LOW LEVEL HELICITY RAMPS
UP AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING AND IF SUPERCELLS CAN OVERCOME THE
WEAK CIN AND TAP INTO SURFACE PARCELS...A TORNADO THREAT WILL
EXIST. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY/S PATTERN WITH
THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE SAME PLACE...JUST A LITTLE WEAKER CIN SO
POPS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER/FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
PERSISTENCE AND WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY MOVE EAST AND
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WORK EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL MAY BE WIDESPREAD AND AVERAGE
1/2 TO 1 INCH. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN HIGH
INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND DRIER AIR WILL END RAIN
CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
AND INTO THE 60S DUE TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS...BUT HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLES INTO
THE AREA...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR NW FLOW MCS ACTIVITY ON
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE NW ZONES. TOO FAR OUT TO RELY ON THE MODEL
FORECASTS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 90 72 89 72 / 20 10 20 10 20
WACO, TX 72 90 73 90 73 / 10 5 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 70 88 70 87 70 / 20 10 20 10 40
DENTON, TX 73 90 71 89 70 / 20 10 20 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 73 89 71 88 71 / 20 10 20 10 30
DALLAS, TX 75 91 74 90 74 / 20 10 20 10 20
TERRELL, TX 72 88 71 89 73 / 10 5 20 10 20
CORSICANA, TX 71 89 72 89 73 / 10 5 5 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 71 89 73 90 73 / 5 5 5 5 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 71 93 70 92 71 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 182019
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
319 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE FA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT THANKS TO STRONG HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND
APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK OFF THE CAPROCK. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THOUGH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WERE HANGING ON ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES. THIS EXTREME HEAT AND DECENT MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH THE
LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING 2000-3000+ J/KG OF SBCAPE GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO LAKE ALAN HENRY LINE. SFC
CONVERGENCE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT GIVEN THE
STRONG HEATING AND RESULTING WEAKENING CAP...IT STILL APPEARS
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL START SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EAST ROW OF
COUNTIES...THOUGH MAY NOT STAY IN THE CWA FOR LONG. STILL...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE SEVERE MENTION FOR THE EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
COULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EAST OR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER
TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS INCREASES. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIM
THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEYOND 06Z.
BEYOND THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES...HOT AND VERY DRY AIR AS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAPROCK RESULTING
IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
FURTHER ELEVATING THE FIRE DANGER. THE LEAD WAVE WITHIN THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND THIS PULL
THE DRYLINE EVER FURTHER EAST...OUT OF THE FA...WITH WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
.LONG TERM...
PLAN FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
WITH DRY WESTERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS SUCH...THE CONTINUED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD.
.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE DRYLINE ON
THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
INCREASE. STILL...DO EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND
UPWARD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE LEFT
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARD
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THEY MAY COME UP A BIT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...AND RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR ON THE CAPROCK. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE
AREA EXPERIENCING HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE DRYLINE
PUSHES FURTHER EAST THAN TODAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WINDS WILL BE ON
THE FENCE REGARDING MEETING THE RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT RH VALUES
WILL BE A SLAM DUNK...DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OR
ALL OF THE FA. TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
/AND MOSTLY LIKELY LONGER DURATION OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE/
BUT CURRENT RUN OF MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES. DID NOT GET CUTE ATTM AND INSTEAD DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF/WHERE A RFD AND RFW WILL BE MOST
APPROPRIATE.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 88 54 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 56 92 56 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 58 92 58 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 60 93 57 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 61 94 60 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 60 92 59 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 63 94 60 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 64 96 62 93 58 / 20 0 0 0 0
SPUR 64 97 64 95 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 70 102 65 98 62 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/04
000
FXUS64 KCRP 182004
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
304 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH PERSISTENCE ON WINDS/TEMPS/DEW POINTS WHICH SEEMS THE BEST WAY
TO GO GIVEN THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN. CONCERN WITH CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA STILL THERE...BUT THINK THAT
RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WILL PRECLUDE IT. LAPS CINS RIGHT NOW ARE WELL ABOVE 100 J/KG. STILL
WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS POSSIBLE (MODELS NOW ARE SHOWING THIS A BIT
FARTHER NORTH)...WILL KEEP THE 10 POPS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST.
PRETTY POTENT 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE OUT THERE BUT ADVECTION IS PRETTY
MUCH OUTSIDE OF THE AREA. ERGO...NO RAINFALL MENTIONED. MORE LOW
CLOUDS RETURN TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PUSH OUT OF AREA. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IS SHOWING SMOKE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVING TOWARD
AREA...SO DID INCLUDE SOME PATCHY HAZE IN FOR OVERNIGHT AND FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...BORDERLINE SCA CONTINUES
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS. AT THIS TIME 2 DAYS
AGO...WINDS OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WERE AT SCA CRITERION AND
NOW THEY ARE SCEC. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SCEC TONIGHT BUT THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS LOW-END SCA COULD BE APPROACHED LATER THIS
EVENING AND/OR OVERNIGHT. MAINTAIN SCEC/NEAR SCA FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT PRETTY MUCH ALL MARINE LOCATIONS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS STILL NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY STREAMER SHOWERS OF
SIGNIFICANCE AT THIS TIME. INCLUDED PATCHY HAZE OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GENERAL RIDGING TO LEAD TO
QUIET WEATHER EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AS SURFACE LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE HAZY CONDITIONS DUE TO ONGOING
AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DIGGING INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AS A VORT LOBE ROUNDS THE
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE BREAKS
SLIGHTLY WITH A FALL IN THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS AND WEAKENING CAP
AS A VORT MAX MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WEAK THETA-E RIDGING AND DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS
WELL AS THE SLOWING DOWN SEA BREEZE MAY GIFT ENOUGH LIFT TO LEAD TO
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THIS IS
REALLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH THE CAP WILL WEAKEN. THE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY EXIT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MIDLEVELS...YET CONTINUE TO
RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 92 76 91 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 74 89 74 90 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 78 101 78 102 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 74 95 74 96 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 77 84 77 86 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 100 74 99 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 76 92 76 92 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 84 76 86 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KMAF 181947
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WESTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN.
VERY DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AND
NEAR RECORD HEAT.
THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW FAR EASTWARD THE DRYLINE
WILL MIX THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KMAF SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. THE DRYLINE QUICKLY MOVED
EAST OF MIDLAND. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE TTU MESONET
SHOW THAT THE DRYLINE HAS MIXED TO NEAR A FLUVANNA TO ST. LAWRENCE
LINE AT PRESENT TIME. PRIMARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
MIX FARTHER TO THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS KEPT THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA FROM JUST EAST OF MIDLAND
TO JUST WEST OF SANDERSON. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE ADJUSTED THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA FARTHER EAST. I WOULD TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT. A 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CWA
AND AREAS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CWA HAVE FORECAST 700 MB
TEMPS OF 13-14C AT 00Z THIS EVENING. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
OVERCOME A CAP LIKE THAT...PROBABLY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE TIME FOR DRIER AIR MIX FARTHER EASTWARD....WHICH
OF COURSE WILL DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
OUR AREA AND CERTAINLY DIMINISH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WHILE THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS DOES SHOW AROUND 2000 J/KG CAPE OVER SCURRY COUNTY
PRESENTLY...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT YET SEEN VIA RADAR OR SATELLITE.
FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW ORDER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. IF A
THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO REACH STRONG LEVELS...AND WILL PLACE THAT WORDING IN TODAY`S
GRAPHIC.
WE START TO SEE SOME INTERESTING CHANCES BY MID WEEK. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEAST SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM
ALVIN COULD ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FOR NOW...WE HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT POP GRIDS
FORECAST AND RE-EVALUATE RAIN POTENTIAL WITH LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 95 60 95 / 0 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 96 61 97 / 10 0 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 65 95 62 96 / 0 0 10 0
DRYDEN TX 68 100 67 101 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 68 97 65 98 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 60 93 59 93 / 0 0 10 0
MARFA TX 50 87 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 95 62 97 / 0 0 10 0
ODESSA TX 66 95 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 63 101 61 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...
DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
80/03
000
FXUS64 KBRO 181857
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
157 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SUMMER SWELTER HAS ARRIVED
FOR THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE MORE LIKE LATE
JUNE AND EARLY JULY THAN MID MAY. THAT SAID...THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS
HAVE HAD STRETCHES IN MAY THAT WERE SIMILAR IF NOT HOTTER...AND THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOW AND JULY IS THE GENERAL STRENGTH OF
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH OWES TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...HAZY SKIES AND MODERATE
TO UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY COURTESY OF THE LAST OF THE AGRICULTURAL
BURNING IN YUCATAN DON`T TYPICALLY COME WITH LATE JUNE/JULY HEAT.
SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MID/UPPER FLOW INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL DO
LITTLE TO AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
SULTRY NIGHTS WITH LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND BECOMING
OVERCAST BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...BOOKENDING A HAZY HOT AND BREEZY DAY ON
SUNDAY. THE SUBTLE CHANGE...WHICH INVOLVES A FLATTENING 500 MB
RIDGE AND VEERING WINDS ABOVE 700 MB TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH THIS
(SATURDAY) AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS...1000-500 MB THICKNESS...850
TEMPERATURE...ETC. PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO EXPECT NEARLY THE SAME
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY AS THEY WERE ON FRIDAY
AND TODAY. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE 90S EXCEPT JUST OVER 100 ACROSS
THE ZAPATA PLAINS...LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES...AND FEELS LIKE
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER 100 IN ALL AREAS EACH AFTERNOON.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TOWARD THE COAST
BY MID EVENING AND HOLD ALL NIGHT...WITH LOWER TO MID 80S WELL
INLAND BY MIDNIGHT FALLING INTO THE 70S BEFORE DAYBREAK.
AS FOR AIR QUALITY...VALUES FOR FINE PARTICULATE
MATTER...DUST/HAZE/SMOKE ETC...PASSED 100 THIS MORNING MID VALLEY
WHICH PUTS HIDALGO/WESTERN CAMERON/STARR IN UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH NOTHING TO CHANGE
THE TYPE OF AIR MASS AND THE LONG FETCH COMING FROM THE YUCATAN.
WHILE THE WIND TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE PARTICULATES...THE STRENGTH OF
THE WIND MIXES THEM TO A DEGREE AND SHOULD KEEP VALUES FROM RISING
INTO MORE DANGEROUS TERRITORY. FOR MORE...SURF TO
HTTP://TCEQ.TEXAS.GOV AND CLICK ON "AIR".
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A LARGE CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL
BE POSITIONED FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW IN MOVING EAST
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NOT MOVING EAST OF TEXAS UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY.
A HOT AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SET UP OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT MOISTURE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TO
PROVIDE ANY HIGHER THEN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS
ALREADY IN THE FORECAST ANYTIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THIS AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...INITIATION OF CONVECTION IS
LIKELY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OR OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO AND POSSIBLE THROUGH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS
REMAIN PERSISTENT ON THIS SCENARIO BUT GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN RATHER
LOW WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LIMITED UP TO 800MB. ONCE THIS TROUGH AXIS
PASSES TO THE EAST AND STRONG 500MB HIGH BUILDS BACK NORTH FROM
MEXICO THE THREAT FOR THUNDER AND ANY CHANCE OF RAIN ENDS. THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS DRY.
TEMPERATURES START OFF HOT WITH THE WARMEST 850MB TEMPERATURES OF
THE WEEK RUNNING 23-25C. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS AND
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS LOWER TEMPERATURES DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20C BY THURSDAY. SURFACE TEMPS FOLLOW THIS TREND
WITH THE MAX TEMPS PEAKING MONDAY AND LOWERING TO NORMAL BY MID
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN RATHER WARM AND SULTRY WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NOT ABATING MUCH AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...STATUS QUO HERE AS
WELL...WITH THE USUAL FLIP-FLOP OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
AND LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE OVERNIGHT BECOMING
STRONGER ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND SOMEWHAT LIGHTER OVER THE
DEEPER GULF WHERE THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME
SYNOPTIC FORCING PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...WHICH NEVER
REALLY STRENGTHENS OWING TO THE STEADY STATE CONDITION OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW.
THUS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/WINDS FOR LAGUNA
MADRE WATERS ON SUNDAY...WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS AT MOST DURING THE
DAY ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO EDGE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
REMAIN JUST BELOW. WINDS IN THE 850-925 LAYER SIT IN THE 25-29 KNOT
RANGE TONIGHT WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH WATER TEMPERATURES AT OR A
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN AMBIENT AIR SHOULD PROVIDE A RARE NOCTURNAL
MARINE LAYER TO KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 16-18 KNOT RANGE WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 20-23 KNOTS OR SO. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PUSH ACROSS
THE 20 KNOT SUSTAINED THRESHOLD AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE A COUPLE
KNOTS WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENING JUST A TAD. FOR
NOW...HAVE WORDED AS `NEAR 20 KNOTS`.
SEAS HAVE RISEN TOWARD 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON OFFSHORE AND EXPECT
VALUES TO MAINTAIN OR RISE A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT. DID NOT POP A 6
FOOT FORECAST JUST YET BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK TO REMAIN
NEAR SCEC LEVELS OR EVEN PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAGUNA. THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO TEXAS.
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ALONG THE UPPER GULF COAST WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THURSDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS AND SEAS
LOWERING SLIGHTLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 92 77 86 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 77 93 77 90 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 77 94 77 92 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 77 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 97 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 83 76 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
52...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KAMA 181750
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1250 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING EAST OF
ALL THREE TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
SUNSET AND VEER TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS AT KGUY LATE
TONIGHT AND AT KAMA AND KDHT SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1216 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING FOG AND TWEAK
TEMPERATURES UPWARD IN SOME LOCATIONS. HEAT BURST ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
RESULTED IN A VERY WARM START TO THE DAY IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND
TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AIDED BY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR BEHIND THE EASTWARD MIXING DRYLINE. THE RECORD
HIGH OF 102F AT AMARILLO AND 100F AT BORGER WILL BOTH BE IN JEOPARDY
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE BORGER WILL HAVE THE BETTER
CHANCE OF BREAKING THE RECORD.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THINGS STILL GENERALLY LOOK ON TRACK
WITH EARLIER THINKING REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT. WILL LEAVE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS IS...WITH NO
CHANGES PLANNED TO IT ATTM ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LOOKING A LITTLE MORE
MARGINAL NOW IN SOME LOCATIONS.
AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GOES...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO MIX TO NEAR THE OK STATE LINE BY THE TIME CONVECTION
INITIATES AFTER 3 PM. STILL TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER IT WILL HANG UP IN
OUR FAR EAST OR MIX INTO FAR WESTERN OK. IF IT DOES HANG UP IN OUR
FAR EAST...INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED IN OUR AREA AS IT BATTLES A FAIRLY STRONG CAP AND ALSO
PERHAPS SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. HIGHER LCL
HEIGHTS WILL KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT MUCH LOWER...AND EXPECT THE MAIN
TORNADO THREAT TO REMAIN EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES WHERE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ.
KB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY TONIGHT. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE TO THE
CAPROCK OR OFF THE CAPROCK BY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY AS LIGHT WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 15Z
TODAY AT ALL THREE TAF SITES....THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER 01Z SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED TODAY WILL SEE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THE RETREATED DRYLINE HAS PROVIDED THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG...LOW
CLOUDS...AND SOME VIRGA SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
DRYLINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING.
MODELS STILL HAVE A LITTLE VARIATION ON JUST HOW FAR THE DRYLINE WILL
PROGRESS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. HAVE GONE ROUGHLY WITH A
BEAVER TO CLARENDON LINE FOR THE DRYLINE POSITION BY THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE DRYLINE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS FROM EAST TO WEST. COUPLING THESE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS YOU END UP WITH PRIME CONDITIONS
FOR THE SPREAD OF FIRES. AS SUCH HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES REBOUND BRINGING AN END TO THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
NOW THAT WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL LETS DIVE
INTO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. DURING THE SAME TIME THAT THE DRYLINE
WILL BE SURGING EASTWARD AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST. OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TWO MAIN FACTORS: THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND THE ABILITY TO
BREAK THE CAP.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE THERE STILL REMAINS SLIGHT VARIATIONS ON THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE IN SENDING THE DRYLINE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CMC HAVE COME INTO MODEST AGREEMENT...IF YOU
SQUINT...KEEPING THE DRYLINE IN THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. HAVE GONE WITH THE FURTHER WESTERN POSITIONING OF THE
DRYLINE WHICH LEAVES LOCATIONS EAST OF A BEAVER TO CLARENDON LINE ON
THE FAVORABLE SIDE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
SO THIS LEADS TO THE OTHER FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY...ABILITY
TO BREAK THE CAP. AS STATED YESTERDAY...700MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE
BETWEEN 12 TO 14 C SO STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THIS
INHIBITION. BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THE SYNOPTIC FORCING MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE INDICES...MLCAPES IN THE
2000 J/KG RANGE AND BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ANY STORMS THAT FORMS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND. THE MAIN TIME OF WHEN THESE STORMS COULD FORM
WILL BE FROM 4 PM TO 9 PM.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOLING THANKS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL LEAVE WEDNESDAY VOID OF
PRECIP CHANCES BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 6 TO 15 PERCENT WHILE 20-FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERC VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
75TH TO 96TH PERCENTILE RANGE...BUT A LIMITING FACTOR ON THE
SIGNIFICANT WILD FIRE POTENTIAL WILL BE THE RECENT GREEN UP AND LACK
OF FUEL LOADING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL END OVERNIGHT
AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REBOUND AND WINDS LESSEN.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEITHER
ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...
GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...
OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.
&&
$$
08/02
000
FXUS64 KBRO 181750 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1250 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY A BROKEN RECORD FORECAST INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SLOWLY DEVELOPING/MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ENHANCE THE SEMI-PERMANENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND THE WESTERN GULF FOR ONE
MORE DAY. THAT MEANS GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM MID TO LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SUSTAINED VALUES RAMPING INTO
THE LOW-MID 20S AND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY THE NOCTURNAL DROP TOWARD BUT NOT BELOW 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
AS FOR CLOUDS...DRY AIR WITHIN THE INVERSION ENSURES RAPID MIX-OUT
OF THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING SOUP...WHICH WILL FLIRT
WITH THE IFR/MVFR BOUNDARY AT 1K FEET BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z. ONCE
MIXED...SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CIRRUS PREVAILS THOUGH
HIGH LEVEL DRYING APPEARS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...SMOKE FROM THE LAST OF AGRICULTURAL BURNING IN
YUCATAN STATE WILL CONTINUE ON A TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE VALLEY AND
SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS UNDER THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS HAZE/MIST. VISIBILITY
SHOULD RISE ABOVE THRESHOLDS NEAR THE GROUND...BUT HAZE ALOFT
LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS FOR SUNDAY WHICH COULD RESTRICT
VISIBILITY A LITTLE IN THE MIXING LAYER...3 TO 5K FEET OR SO...ON
APPROACH.
52/BSG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS RAGGED LOW LEVEL SC DECKS
PERSISTING MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
OVER THE REGION. THE LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LOWER
RGV INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY MOIST AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WILL PERSIST ON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LIKELY MAINTAINING
IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER
SUNRISE THE DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
ERODE AWAY THE CEILINGS ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. THE
NIGHTTIME LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL THEN REFORM AGAIN LATE SAT NIGHT
POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR SOME MORE PATCHY LOW SC FROM 06 TO 12Z SAT.
FOR AVIATION INTERESTS HEADING SOUTH INTO MEXICO MOUNT
POPOCATEPETL...LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MEXICO CITY...HAS GOTTEN MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS PERIODICALLY RELEASING ASH
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. SO FAR NONE OF THESE ASH CLOUDS HAVE
HAD ANY IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS IN THE LOWER RGV. HOWEVER
PILOTS FLYING INTO MEXICO SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST VOLCANIC
ASH ADVISORIES ISSUED FROM THE WASHINGTON VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY
CENTER (VAAC). THESE ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB
ADDRESS...WWW.OSPO.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ATMOSPHERE/VAAC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HEAT...HUMIDITY AND HAZE WILL
BE THE ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS RIDGING WILL START TO
ERODE AWAY AS A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH/CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. ALTHOUGH THE
MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO ERODE TOMORROW 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY ELEVATED. THE WAA WILL ALSO CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROFFING/CLOSED LOW MAINTAINS THE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM TEMP GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB REFLECTED
OVERALL TRENDS VERSUS THE ECMWF AND THE MAV WHICH APPEARS TO BE
LAGGING BEHIND ON THE MAX TEMPS. WILL BE GOING AT AND ABOVE MET
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS AND A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS FOR MINS.
THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM TCEQ INDICATES THAT SMOKE AND HAZE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT NORTH OVER DEEP SOUTH TX FROM AG FIRES BURING IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SO WILL MENTION HAZE THROUGHOUT TODAY
AND SUN MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH AN INITIAL PLAINS TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PANHANDLES REGION.
THE WARMEST MAX TEMPS FOR THE WEEK WILL PROBABLY OCCUR MONDAY WITH A
DRY PREVIOUSLY SUBSIDED COLUMN NOT HAVING MODIFIED YET FROM THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.
THIS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A BIT OF A COURSE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS
CONTINUED A TREND WITH DIGGING A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN IT DID EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THIS PRODUCES STRONG LAYER WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST 200MB OR SO...AT THE VERY LEAST INCREASING
LOW/MID CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY...BUT GFS/ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
POINT TOWARDS ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO ALLOW
FOR ABOUT 2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...AT LEAST
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRES. CONVECTION ALSO APPEARS TO
INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ON THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND THE FLOW PATTERN WOULD FAVOR IT MOVING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IF IT WERE TO KEEP GOING. WITH THAT
CONSIDERED...ADDED A SCHC OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE MORE FAVORED TIME
FRAME FOR ACTIVITY...MAINLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHWEST SHIFTING EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CAPPING IN PLACE
DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB WINDS AND BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
SOURCES OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ARE MORE LIMITED BUT WITH THE
REASONABLE POSSIBILITY OF PREVIOUSLY GENERATED BOUNDARIES IN THE
AREA...INCLUDING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA SEEMS
PRUDENT. THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
BUT BY THEN UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM AND SUSPECT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BE STRONG.
LOOKING AT THE POLAR JET STRUCTURE A FAIRLY COMPLEX EVOLUTION WILL
PLAY OUT IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG AND
WHETHER WE WILL BE IN PLAY FOR RAIN/THUNDER. THE MOMENTUM GETS
MAINLY TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE PLAINS TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE
PANHANDLES REGION MAKING ME SKEPTICAL AS TO ITS CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTWARD DIGGING...HOWEVER RIDGING BUILDING AHEAD OF A SHARP
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WOULD PROBABLY
KEEP ENOUGH OF A KICKER JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH TO KEEP IT
MOVING TO ABOUT WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE IT LOCATED. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
SO CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN A MORE PRECIP FRIENDLY PATTERN
FOR THE AREA...THUS THE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. STILL KEPT THE
POPS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE INHERENT COMPLEXITY OF WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY
PLAY OUT.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHARP UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT COLUMN THICKNESSES TO RISE WITH DRYING MIDDLE LEVELS. WE LOSE
OUR PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET GENERATING LEE TROUGHING THOUGH SO
THE ACTUAL SFC FLOW MAY BE MORE EASTERLY AND ONSHORE...SO PAINTED
WARMER HIGHS OUT WEST BUT MODERATED JUST A BIT IN COASTAL LOCATIONS
IN DAYS 6 AND 7. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INDUCED CAPPING. /68-JGG/
MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
STRONG S-SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGH SUN. THE PGF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH NEAR THE COASTLINE TO
PUSH CONDITIONS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COOLER WATERS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE LLJ OVER
THE REGION. SO WILL MENTION SCEC CONDITIONS THERE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE GULF SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MAY CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE LIGHTER ON TUESDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...POSSIBLY FALLING TO LOW TO MODERATE BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ130-132-135.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
000
FXUS64 KCRP 181747 AAB
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
OVER SOME OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND SOME OF THEM ARE
SLOWLY GETTING APPROACHED. OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TOO. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH WINDS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS NOW WE ARE
GETTING GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THIS MAY ALSO MEAN A SCA FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAYS. PREFER TO WAIT FOR NOW AS HIGHER WINDS ARE VERY
ISOLATED AND WINDS NOT GETTING THAT HIGH OVER THE WATERS AT THIS
TIME (THAT IS WHY WILL MONITOR). PRODUCTS OUT.
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...GOING PRETTY MUCH WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR
CLOUDS. TERMINAL FORECAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER THAN 24
HOURS AGO...BUT OTHER THAN THAT DIRECTIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR.
COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS OVER KCRP AND KALI BUT OVERALL EASTERN
THREE TERMINALS SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS AOB 03Z. THINK MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL STAY OUT OF KLRD BUT WILL BE CLOSE. HAZE DUE TO
SMOKE WILL BE A PROBLEM FORECASTING TONIGHT...AS IT DEPENDS ON
FIRES IN MEXICO. COMBINATION OF SMOKE PARTICULATES AND VERY LIGHT
MIST SHOULD BRING MVFR VSBYS TO KALI AND KCRP MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING ABOUT THE SAME TIME AND BEING SSE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT THE
ALI/CRP/VCT TAF SITES. ANTICIPATE A FEW MORE HOURS OF STRATUS
BEFORE MIXING OUT AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP TODAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY WILL WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN AROUND
SUNSET WITH STRATUS RETURNING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE BUT HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW. HAZE MAY BE
AN ISSUE AT TIMES FOR CRP/VCT DUE TO SMOKE OVER MEXICO MOVING
NORTHWARD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ANOTHER ROUND OF OF LOW
CLOUDS/STRATUS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. STRATUS
SHOULD THIN OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS MIXING COMMENCES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST TODAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO
LOWER TODAY AS 850 TEMPS ARE NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 100 OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO NEAR 90 ACROSS
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. PERSISTENT SFC TROUGH OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO...RETAINED A MENTION OF
PATCHY HAZE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AS SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL
BURNING IN MEXICO MOVES NORTHWARD.
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION CAN SNEAK INTO WEBB COUNTY. STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE NW OF THE REGION ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
AND POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO. MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE AS 700
TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 12 AND 13 DEGREES C OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
WILL KEEP SILENT 10 POPS OUT WEST FOR NOW THINKING CAP WILL HOLD
STRONG.
WARM AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPS TO TODAY.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG CAP STILL EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MID-WEEK...AND
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AT THAT
TIME. 850 TEMPS TO DECREASE A BIT...BUT 700 TEMPS STILL LOOK PRETTY
WARM. DID DECIDE TO ADD IN A 20 POP FOR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH A
WEAKENED CAP AT LEAST NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT NORTH...POSSIBLY ENCROACHING ON THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
THE CHANCE IS SMALL...IT DOES EXIST.
TEMPERATURES HOT EARLY IN THE WEEK MAY DECREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
LATER IN THE WEEK. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 76 92 76 89 / 0 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 90 74 89 74 90 / 0 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 101 78 101 78 100 / 0 10 10 10 10
ALICE 96 74 95 74 95 / 0 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 84 77 84 77 86 / 0 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 101 74 100 74 98 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 93 76 92 76 92 / 0 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 84 76 84 76 86 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KLUB 181744
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT THE TERMINALS THIS TAF
CYCLE...WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. KCDS WILL HAVE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT PROSPECTS OF A DIRECT IMPACT ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE EXCITEMENT IN TERMS OF
HEAT BURSTS...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WAS NOW
EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST...WITH THE NEXT UA TROUGH OF CONSEQUENCE
APPROACHING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LIFT WITH THE WESTERN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF NM AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY PEAK HEATING WITH THE
GREATEST UPPER FORCING PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DRAWN DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...THOUGH VEERING FLOW WAS ALSO
BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. IN
FACT...HUMIDITIES WERE ALREADY BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHERE COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS...THE FIRE
DANGER WILL BE HIGH. IT STILL APPEARS THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN
SOMEWHERE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING/MIXING...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS...COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z. STRONG INSTABILITY EAST OF THE DRYLINE
COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH SUPERCELLULAR MODES LIKELY.
RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS AND RATHER WEAK 0-1 KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE WITH
THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH STRONG INSTABILITY COULD
COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT AND PROVIDE A LOW TORNADO CHANCE. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE LOWER WIND FIELDS
STRENGTHEN AND BACK AND LCLS GRADUALLY LOWER. BIGGEST QUESTION
FOR OUR CWA IS IF AND FOR HOW LONG CONVECTION CAN STAY IN OUR
AREA. OF THE GUIDANCE THAT DEVELOPS STORMS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST SHOW THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST
OF THE FA...WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER QUITE
NARROW. THERE MAY BE A RISK FOR REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
PEAKS...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS SCENARIO...WITH
THE COOLING LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINING CAPPED. WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
AND THE RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAIN VALID
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TWO BANDS OF VERY LIGHT VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE DRYLINE.
THIS SHOULD WRAP UP BY SUNRISE BEFORE THE MERCURY STARTS TO CLIMB
AGAIN. DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 100S INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. CHILDRESS IS FORECAST TO HIT 101
DEGREES TODAY WHICH WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 99 FOR THE
DATE.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX QUICKLY EAST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY MIXING EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE WITHIN REACH SO
THAT IT RETREATS BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AND USHER IN RICHER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE
LIMITED...BELIEVE WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORM ROOTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED AS SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES POST-SUNSET...LEADING TO MORE
OF A HAIL THREAT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST AND PULL
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE DURING THE NEXT WEEK WHICH SOME
EXCITEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE ON THAT LATER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE NEG TILTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO MATURATION LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS PARENT LOW REACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SERVING TO BLOCK EWRD PROGRESSION OF NORTHWESTERN LOW.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...DRYLINE SHOULD START OFF ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES THUS LEAVING THE AREA HOT AND DRY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. NWP IS STRONGER WITH THE LATE SUNDAY COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND RESULTS OF THIS MORNINGS TROUGH
WHICH GENERATED SOME HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THIS NEW FOUND
STRENGTH APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. THE NAM IS MOST ASSERTIVE WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURE. WHICH BY IN LARGE MAY MAKE IT
MOST...BUT PERHAPS NOT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE CWFA. SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
KEEPING THINGS QUITE WARM AND DRY. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MAKES THROUGH WITH THE GFS DEPICTING
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MODEL APPEARS TOO MOIST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FCST THINKING THAT THIS WILL YIELD YET
ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER ON TUESDAY/S HIGH AND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...THIS TOO SEEMS REASONABLE AND ADJUST TEMPS COOLER TUE/WED
AS A RESULT. INTO LATE WEEK...MORE EXCITING PROSPECTS FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOOKING TO COME TOGETHER AS PERSISTENT SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THEN
ASSISTED BY A SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY. WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING UP TO WELL OVER AN INCH THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
YIELD THE BEST PROMISE OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN SOME TIME...AND
WE`LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET!
FIRE WEATHER...
DAY 1
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THUS WARRANTING THE
UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR AREAS JUST EAST OF THOSE IN THE WARNING.
DAY 2-3
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA COVERED BY THE WARNING
THIS MORNING AS DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TO AVOID PRODUCT CONFUSION...WILL HOLD OFF ON SECOND RED
FLAG PRODUCT FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. WHILE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY EASE ON MONDAY TO SOME EXTENT...ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 56 87 54 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 57 92 56 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 57 94 58 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 59 94 57 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 59 96 60 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 60 92 59 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 60 95 60 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 63 95 62 92 58 / 20 0 0 0 0
SPUR 59 98 64 94 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 69 99 65 97 62 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/99/99
000
FXUS64 KEWX 181742
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1242 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
MORNING CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF AND FLYING CATEGORY WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATCHING AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OUT OF MEXICO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH CIG WILL AT DRT
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH CIGS FARTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON 15G25
KTS. IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VIS OVERNIGHT AT AUS...SAT...AND SSF. BACK
TO VFR LATE MORNING SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
UPDATE...
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BROUGHT
THE ISOLATED STORMS FARTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AS
WELL. OTHERWISE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
HOT PATTERN TO CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY WITH MORE NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO A SLOW TREND OF MODERATING TEMPS.
MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE DRYLINE AND
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE SHARPER INTERFACE BETWEEN THE
HOT AND DRY AIR AND THE DEEP LOW-TO-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
FARTHER NORTH. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE ANY STRONG STORM
THREATS IN THE HWO FOR THE LACK OF EXPECTED COVERAGE. TROUGHING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN US WILL NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT COULD CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
SHIFTING DRY-LINE WELL MIXED TO PRECLUDE THE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE DRY-
LINE FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT ISOLATED POPS ARE CONTINUED
TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE TRIGGERING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SW AND AN INCREASING MOISTURE TAP FROM THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC...AIDED BY THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD
TREND BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS AS AFTERNOON MIXING BRINGS DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SW. BY TUESDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF I-35 OVER NE TX AND COULD SET UP
A MORE PRODUCTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR NW FLOW THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO N TX...SO THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO BRING A QUICK RETURN TO STABILITY FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGING TO BE DIRTY TO ALLOW FOR
AIR MASS STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITHOUT A
SPECIFIC FOCUS OR MOISTURE TAP TO HIGHLIGHT DURING THIS
PERIOD...WILL STICK WITH A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST FOR SILENT 10
POPS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5/18
ATT 97/1925
AUS 94/2003 AND OTHER YEARS
SAT 97/1989 AND OTHER YEARS
DRT 103/2003 AND OTHER YEARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 93 72 94 72 / - 10 10 - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 92 70 94 70 / - 10 10 - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 93 70 94 70 / - 10 10 - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 92 70 92 70 / - 10 10 - 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 100 74 102 75 / 20 10 10 - 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 91 70 92 69 / - 10 10 - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 96 71 96 72 / 10 10 10 - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 91 71 91 71 / - 10 10 - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 92 72 93 75 / - 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 94 73 94 74 / - 10 10 - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 73 94 73 / - 10 10 - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
000
FXUS64 KSJT 181737
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1237 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. JUNCTION
MAINTAINS MVFR VISIBILITY...THOUGH AS WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE
HAZE WILL MIX OUT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE NOT MENTIONING
IN TAFS RATHER WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. JUNCTION WILL SEE SOME
MOISTURE RETURN OVERNIGHT PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
BEING REPLACED BY A HIGH BASED CU FIELD THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SOUTH /170-200
DEGREES/ AND WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS BY 14-15Z. I EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS TO STAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL STAY UP THIS EVENING
AT KABI/KSJT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET REDEVELOPS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED SO NO THUNDER WAS
INCLUDED AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. HOWEVER...KABI AND KBBD STAND
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THIS ACTIVITY /ALBEIT STILL A LOW
CHANCE/. WILL WAIT FOR THE DETAILS TO EMERGE BEFORE INCLUDING
RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAFS.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL SEVERE CONVECTION HIGHLIGHT
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EVIDENT PER 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS THAT HAS SHARED SOME
RESPONSIBILITY FOR OUR OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AS A
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH IS TAKING ON
SOMEWHAT OF A NEGATIVE TILT BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT REMAIN
ON ITS WESTERN FLANK. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK IS PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST ACROSS MEXICO THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ARRIVE THIS
EVENING. IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS HAS
ENHANCED THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS CONTINUING TO PUMP
GULF MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE CWA. THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY FOUND TO
OUR WEST AND WILL MOVE A BIT TO THE EAST TODAY. THE QUESTION
REMAINS HOW FAR EAST. MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE MIXES THE DRYLINE
AS FAR EAST AS A HASKELL...TO SAN ANGELO...TO OZONA LINE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE HIRES CAMS HOLD THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST
ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF A STRONG
MID LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON /AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES/ I HAVE
OPTED FOR THE WESTERN PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE...KEEPING MOST OF
THE AREA WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL BE 5-7 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE RAP WARMS SURFACE TEMPS UP TO NEAR 105
DEGREES AGAIN. WHILE THE INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE WILL LIMIT
HEATING...I STILL DO NOT THINK WE WILL COOL OFF BY THAT MUCH. I
WENT WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM AND RAP...WITH FORECAST
HIGHS GENERALLY 97 TO 101 DEGREES. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS JUST SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY WITH AN ANTICIPATED 25-30 KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR. WITH THE INTENSE SURFACE HEATING...WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL
UPDRAFTS PENETRATE THE CAP AND MATURE QUICKLY INTO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEND TOWARD
A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP...DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER PROVIDING A WIND THREAT. THE EXTREMELY HIGH CLOUD
BASES WILL LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT WILL
NOT RULE OUT THE THREAT ALTOGETHER. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WHERE THE CAP WILL
BE A BIT WEAKER BUT THE THREAT WILL EXIST AREAWIDE.
TONIGHT...ANY ONGOING CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN A GENERAL
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND MAY HANG ON FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
SUNSET GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED INTERACTION OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...DRYLINE AND INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS WELL BUT WILL DECREASE ONCE WE LOSE
SURFACE HEATING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR THE MOST PART WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.
THANKS LUB FOR THE COORDINATION.
JOHNSON
LONG TERM...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE NEXT WEEK. KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE
ON SUNDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. A
LARGE...SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL AND UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRY SLOTTED BEING SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO
GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS IS ON
TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY...AND ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF
STORMS ON THESE DAYS HOWEVER ...AS RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
LOW. I AM ALSO CONCERNED WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING PLACE IN THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION.
04
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY ACROSS MOST
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 100 DEGREES...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO 20-30 PERCENT AND SOUTH 20 FT
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 MPH. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO 70-80
PERCENT OVERNIGHT BUT WILL TANK AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR
TO NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES YET AGAIN. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE
DRYLINE WILL MOVE A BIT FARTHER EAST...SPREADING SUB 20 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS FAR EAST AS A HASKELL...TO SAN ANGELO...TO
OZONA LINE. SOUTHWEST 20 FT WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH...RESULTING
IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
ONLY SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED BY
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLEVIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TEMPORARILY.
JOHNSON
CLIMATE...
THE MAX TEMP YESTERDAY IN SAN ANGELO OF 106 DEGREES SMASHED THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 100. LIKEWISE...ABILENE SET A NEW RECORD AS
WELL...TOPPING OUT AT 104 AND BESTING THE PREVIOUS MARK OF 101
DEGREES. WE MAY BE IN LINE FOR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS THIS
MORNING. THE RECORDS OF 73 DEGREES AT BOTH ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO
MAY FALL AS 2 AM TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 80S.
THIS AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 100 DEGREES. MAX TEMPS RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY AT BOTH
SITES. ABILENE HAS A RECORD HIGH TODAY OF 99 DEGREES WHILE SAN
ANGELO/S RECORD IS 102.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 100 71 97 69 94 / 20 20 5 10 10
SAN ANGELO 101 72 102 70 96 / 20 10 5 5 5
JUNCTION 97 70 99 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
REIMER
000
FXUS64 KFWD 181727 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1227 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
THE NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES WILL BE BREEZY AND
VFR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THEN...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO ADVECT ACROSS THE SITES...AROUND 09Z AT KACT AND BY 11Z
ACROSS THE METROPLEX. THIS IS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ TONIGHT
THAT WILL BE IN THE 40-45 KNOT RANGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 18KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING BY 06Z TO
17G27KT. WINDS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE 20G30KTS OR JUST A BIT HIGHER
MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
A SHORTWAVE MAY DEVELOP SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF I-20
LATE TONIGHT. DUE TO FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES...WE HAVE A
CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL OF HEAT BURSTS RESULTING FROM ANY
ACTIVITY THAT PASSES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN MOST TAF
SITES...KAFW/KDFW/KDAL. 75
&&
.UPDATE...
12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE DEPTH HAS BEEN REDUCED AS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE
LOW 60S WEST TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND EAST. IN ADDITION...THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE HAS WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY
WHICH MEANS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TODAY FOR
MOST AREAS. LIGHT ECHOES IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION AND PRECIP IS LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GENERALLY ON TRACK AND
A JUST A FEW CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS WERE MADE FOR TRENDS.
CONCERNING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IT STILL APPEARS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
HAVE SOME THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS BUT THERE ARE SOME MIXED
SIGNALS IN THE DATA TODAY. THE STRONG CAP WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY IMPEDANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A LOWER MOISTURE DEPTH
MAY RESULT IN DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT MORE THAN FORECAST WHICH WOULD
KEEP CIN VALUES TOO HIGH. THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO BE POSITIONED
FARTHER WEST TODAY AND ALONG A LINE FROM VERNON TO SAN ANGELO.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL DATA IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND RESULT IN
HEIGHT FALLS. THIS BIT OF FORCING WOULD HELP TO ERODE THE CAP AND
WOULD FAVOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FIELDS ARE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER TODAY AND STORMS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE MORE
EASTERLY AND INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RUC
KEEPS ALL ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...BUT THE HRRR AND 12Z NAM ARE
BRINGING IT INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. SOME OF THE OTHER HI-RES
MODELS ARE NOT EVEN INITIATING...SO AGAIN POPS WILL BE GENERALLY
JUST 20 PERCENT WEST OF A GAINESVILLE TO MINERAL WELLS TO
GOLDTHWAITE DUE TO INITIATION AND STORM MOTION UNCERTAINTIES. DUE
TO STEEP LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH WITH CAPES LIKELY
OVER 3000 J/KG AT PEAK HEATING...AND THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IN OUR
CWA WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES THE
CAP WILL REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...BUT
THESE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SPRINKLES AND GUSTY WINDS FROM STORM
ANVILS LATER THIS EVENING.
TR.92
&&
.SHORT TERM...
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS WEST TX/OK BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE THE
SURFACE DRYLINE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. LIFT FROM
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
100 DEGREES AND THE RESULTING VERY HIGH INSTABILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS TYPICALLY
THE TIME OF THE YEAR/MID MAY-LATE JUNE/ THAT THE DRYLINE OUT WEST IS
THE MOST ACTIVE...USUALLY PRODUCING DIURNAL SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
LATE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. EXPECT MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING IN AND NEAR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
CURRENT SHEAR AND BUNKERS METHOD INDICATE THERE WILL BE MORE
STEERING CURRENTS TO THE NORTHEAST VERSUS YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING. HOWEVER...AS WITH ANY SUPERCELL DEVIANT
MOTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ONCE ANY MESOCYCLONES DEVELOP WITHIN
THE STORMS THEMSELVES. DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS WITH THE HOT
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...JUST ABOUT ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. EXPECT ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE EVENING AND EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE MORE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES VERSUS JUST THE WEST...AS A
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OK/KS. THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A
BETTER PUSH TO EAST ACROSS THOSE AREAS NORTH OF I-20 IN RESPONSE
TO THIS SHORTWAVE. THE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND RISK
WILL BE OVER EASTERN OK INTO THE OZARKS...BUT SHOULD ZIPPER A FEW
STORMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE RED RIVER BY EVENING. ALL THREATS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY (MAY 17) WAS THE FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY AT DFW AIRPORT THIS
YEAR. IT WAS ALSO THE FIRST TIME NORTH TEXAS HAS SEEN 100 DEGREES
IN 2013. GRAHAM HIT 101...AND BRECKENRIDGE PEAKED AT 104.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 73 92 72 91 / 5 5 10 20 10
WACO, TX 92 71 91 73 90 / 5 5 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 88 70 87 68 87 / 5 5 5 20 10
DENTON, TX 93 72 90 72 90 / 5 10 10 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 90 72 89 71 88 / 5 5 5 20 10
DALLAS, TX 93 73 91 74 91 / 5 5 10 20 10
TERRELL, TX 90 71 90 71 89 / 5 5 5 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 91 71 89 73 90 / 5 5 5 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 92 71 91 72 90 / 5 5 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 96 70 94 69 95 / 5 20 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
75/
000
FXUS64 KAMA 181716 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1216 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING FOG AND TWEAK
TEMPERATURES UPWARD IN SOME LOCATIONS. HEAT BURST ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
RESULTED IN A VERY WARM START TO THE DAY IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND
TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AIDED BY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR BEHIND THE EASTWARD MIXING DRYLINE. THE RECORD
HIGH OF 102F AT AMARILLO AND 100F AT BORGER WILL BOTH BE IN JEOPARDY
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE BORGER WILL HAVE THE BETTER
CHANCE OF BREAKING THE RECORD.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THINGS STILL GENERALLY LOOK ON TRACK
WITH EARLIER THINKING REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT. WILL LEAVE THE RED FLAG WARNING AS IS...WITH NO
CHANGES PLANNED TO IT ATTM ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LOOKING A LITTLE MORE
MARGINAL NOW IN SOME LOCATIONS.
AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GOES...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO MIX TO NEAR THE OK STATE LINE BY THE TIME CONVECTION
INITIATES AFTER 3 PM. STILL TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER IT WILL HANG UP IN
OUR FAR EAST OR MIX INTO FAR WESTERN OK. IF IT DOES HANG UP IN OUR
FAR EAST...INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED IN OUR AREA AS IT BATTLES A FAIRLY STRONG CAP AND ALSO
PERHAPS SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. HIGHER LCL
HEIGHTS WILL KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT MUCH LOWER...AND EXPECT THE MAIN
TORNADO THREAT TO REMAIN EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES WHERE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY THIS EVENING WITH ONSET OF THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY TONIGHT. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE TO THE
CAPROCK OR OFF THE CAPROCK BY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY AS LIGHT WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 15Z
TODAY AT ALL THREE TAF SITES....THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER 01Z SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED TODAY WILL SEE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THE RETREATED DRYLINE HAS PROVIDED THE OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG...LOW
CLOUDS...AND SOME VIRGA SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
DRYLINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING.
MODELS STILL HAVE A LITTLE VARIATION ON JUST HOW FAR THE DRYLINE WILL
PROGRESS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. HAVE GONE ROUGHLY WITH A
BEAVER TO CLARENDON LINE FOR THE DRYLINE POSITION BY THE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE DRYLINE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS FROM EAST TO WEST. COUPLING THESE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS YOU END UP WITH PRIME CONDITIONS
FOR THE SPREAD OF FIRES. AS SUCH HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES REBOUND BRINGING AN END TO THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
NOW THAT WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL LETS DIVE
INTO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. DURING THE SAME TIME THAT THE DRYLINE
WILL BE SURGING EASTWARD AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST. OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
TWO MAIN FACTORS: THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND THE ABILITY TO
BREAK THE CAP.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE THERE STILL REMAINS SLIGHT VARIATIONS ON THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE IN SENDING THE DRYLINE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CMC HAVE COME INTO MODEST AGREEMENT...IF YOU
SQUINT...KEEPING THE DRYLINE IN THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. HAVE GONE WITH THE FURTHER WESTERN POSITIONING OF THE
DRYLINE WHICH LEAVES LOCATIONS EAST OF A BEAVER TO CLARENDON LINE ON
THE FAVORABLE SIDE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
SO THIS LEADS TO THE OTHER FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY...ABILITY
TO BREAK THE CAP. AS STATED YESTERDAY...700MB TEMPS LOOK TO BE
BETWEEN 12 TO 14 C SO STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO OVERCOME THIS
INHIBITION. BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THE SYNOPTIC FORCING MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE INDICES...MLCAPES IN THE
2000 J/KG RANGE AND BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ANY STORMS THAT FORMS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND. THE MAIN TIME OF WHEN THESE STORMS COULD FORM
WILL BE FROM 4 PM TO 9 PM.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOLING THANKS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL LEAVE WEDNESDAY VOID OF
PRECIP CHANCES BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 6 TO 15 PERCENT WHILE 20-FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERC VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
75TH TO 96TH PERCENTILE RANGE...BUT A LIMITING FACTOR ON THE
SIGNIFICANT WILD FIRE POTENTIAL WILL BE THE RECENT GREEN UP AND LACK
OF FUEL LOADING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL END OVERNIGHT
AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REBOUND AND WINDS LESSEN.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEITHER
ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...
GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...
OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.
&&
$$
08/03
000
FXUS64 KMAF 181713
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING IN
STRENGTH THIS EVENING. MOSTLY WEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THAT HAS BROUGHT HOT
WEATHER TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO BE DISPLACED TODAY BY AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY AND PASSING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MAF HIT A DAILY RECORD HIGH YESTERDAY AT 103 DEGREES WITH A 40
DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIR. AS SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH IS A WARM PATTERN. OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO FALL OFF THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE HOT TEMPERATURES
TODAY... MAY TIE A RECORD HIGH AT MAF AGAIN TODAY... BUT SHOULD BE A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT MID 90S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
SOME MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO THE EASTERN CWA. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
ISOLD POPS IN THE FAR EAST TODAY AS COULD BE A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE
OF RAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE REMAINS OF PACIFIC STORM ALVIN MOVE UP ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
QPF DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER SEVERAL DAYS... WILL START WITH INTRODUCING
LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND GO FROM THERE.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WRN CWFA...SE
NM...UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND NRN PB. 25KT WINDS AT AROUND 5KFT WILL
COME OUT ACROSS THE DESCRIBED AREA AND WITH THE BETTER MSLP GRADIENT
ACROSS SE NM/NRN PB SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND 20-30 MPH MTNS...MAINLY AFTER 3 PM AND UNTIL AROUND 8
PM...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WHILE FUEL DRYNESS MAPS SUPPORT DRY TO VERY DRY
FUELS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN A DRY/UNSTABLE STATE AS SEEN BY
DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS AND HAINES INDICES OF 5 TO 6. SINGLE DIGIT RH/S
WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. BRIEF RF WX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA AREA
ESPECIALLY IF MSLP GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER FARTHER S.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
99
000
FXUS64 KHGX 181704
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1204 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES FROM SMOKE...GENERALLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH 05Z. MOISTURE BENEATH THE CAP WILL ALLOW
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AGAIN. LEANED TOWARD PERSISTENCE ONCE AGAIN
WITH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MXING OUT BETWEEN 15-16Z. GRADIENT
LOOKS TIGHTER ON SUNDAY SO WILL ADD A GUST GROUP. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS PRESENT ACROSS SE TX THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS FAIRLY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AND COASTAL MARINE ZONES. AN ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z
UPPER AIR PRESSURE SURFACES SHOWED A VERY WARM LAYER OVERHEAD.
THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY THE LARGE CAP IN PLACE ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AT KCRP...KLCH...AND KSHV. A FAIRLY DEEP LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERN FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOVE 850MB WAS HELPING TO ADVECT SMOKE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO OVERHEAD OUR AREA. FURTHER ALOFT THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL RIDGE WAS MOVING OVERHEAD THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A HAZY AFTERNOON TO DEVELOP AS THE
MORNING CLOUDINESS SCATTERS OUT. THE SMOKE AND HAZE SHOULD HELP
GENERATE A BIT OF A GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND WARM TEMPERATURES UP A
BIT OVER THE INLAND SITES. TOWARD THE COAST...THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES. UPDATES
WERE TO THE WIND GRIDS AND ADDED AN SCEC TO THE MARINE GROUPS
BEYOND 20 NM AND WEST OF FREEPORT WITHIN 20 NM AND INCLUDING
MATAGORDA BAY.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 72 91 73 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 72 90 73 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 73 82 73 82 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...43
000
FXUS64 KLUB 181631 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1131 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE EXCITEMENT IN TERMS OF
HEAT BURSTS...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WAS NOW
EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST...WITH THE NEXT UA TROUGH OF CONSEQUENCE
APPROACHING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LIFT WITH THE WESTERN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF NM AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY PEAK HEATING WITH THE
GREATEST UPPER FORCING PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DRAWN DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...THOUGH VEERING FLOW WAS ALSO
BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. IN
FACT...HUMIDITIES WERE ALREADY BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHERE COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS...THE FIRE
DANGER WILL BE HIGH. IT STILL APPEARS THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN
SOMEWHERE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING/MIXING...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS...COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z. STRONG INSTABILITY EAST OF THE DRYLINE
COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH SUPERCELLULAR MODES LIKELY.
RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS AND RATHER WEAK 0-1 KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE WITH
THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH STRONG INSTABILITY COULD
COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT AND PROVIDE A LOW TORNADO CHANCE. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE LOWER WIND FIELDS
STRENGTHEN AND BACK AND LCLS GRADUALLY LOWER. BIGGEST QUESTION
FOR OUR CWA IS IF AND FOR HOW LONG CONVECTION CAN STAY IN OUR
AREA. OF THE GUIDANCE THAT DEVELOPS STORMS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST SHOW THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST
OF THE FA...WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER QUITE
NARROW. THERE MAY BE A RISK FOR REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
PEAKS...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS SCENARIO...WITH
THE COOLING LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINING CAPPED. WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
AND THE RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAIN VALID
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FOG HAS
REMAINED NORTHEAST OF KCDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. EXPECT SPEEDS TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS. ISOLATED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KCDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A
STORM WITHIN 5 NM OF THE TERMINAL IS NOT CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE THE 12 KNOT THRESHOLD TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TWO BANDS OF VERY LIGHT VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE DRYLINE.
THIS SHOULD WRAP UP BY SUNRISE BEFORE THE MERCURY STARTS TO CLIMB
AGAIN. DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 100S INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. CHILDRESS IS FORECAST TO HIT 101
DEGREES TODAY WHICH WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 99 FOR THE
DATE.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX QUICKLY EAST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY MIXING EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE WITHIN REACH SO
THAT IT RETREATS BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AND USHER IN RICHER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE
LIMITED...BELIEVE WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORM ROOTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED AS SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES POST-SUNSET...LEADING TO MORE
OF A HAIL THREAT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST AND PULL
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE DURING THE NEXT WEEK WHICH SOME
EXCITEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE ON THAT LATER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE NEG TILTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO MATURATION LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS PARENT LOW REACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SERVING TO BLOCK EWRD PROGRESSION OF NORTHWESTERN LOW.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...DRYLINE SHOULD START OFF ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES THUS LEAVING THE AREA HOT AND DRY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. NWP IS STRONGER WITH THE LATE SUNDAY COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND RESULTS OF THIS MORNINGS TROUGH
WHICH GENERATED SOME HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THIS NEW FOUND
STRENGTH APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. THE NAM IS MOST ASSERTIVE WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURE. WHICH BY IN LARGE MAY MAKE IT
MOST...BUT PERHAPS NOT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE CWFA. SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
KEEPING THINGS QUITE WARM AND DRY. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MAKES THROUGH WITH THE GFS DEPICTING
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MODEL APPEARS TOO MOIST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FCST THINKING THAT THIS WILL YIELD YET
ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER ON TUESDAY/S HIGH AND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...THIS TOO SEEMS REASONABLE AND ADJUST TEMPS COOLER TUE/WED
AS A RESULT. INTO LATE WEEK...MORE EXCITING PROSPECTS FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOOKING TO COME TOGETHER AS PERSISTENT SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THEN
ASSISTED BY A SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY. WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING UP TO WELL OVER AN INCH THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
YIELD THE BEST PROMISE OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN SOME TIME...AND
WE`LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET!
FIRE WEATHER...
DAY 1
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THUS WARRANTING THE
UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR AREAS JUST EAST OF THOSE IN THE WARNING.
DAY 2-3
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA COVERED BY THE WARNING
THIS MORNING AS DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TO AVOID PRODUCT CONFUSION...WILL HOLD OFF ON SECOND RED
FLAG PRODUCT FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. WHILE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY EASE ON MONDAY TO SOME EXTENT...ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 56 87 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 99 57 92 56 88 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 97 57 94 58 89 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 98 59 94 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 99 59 96 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 96 60 92 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 60 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 101 63 95 62 92 / 20 20 0 0 0
SPUR 103 59 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 102 69 99 65 97 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/99
000
FXUS64 KFWD 181556
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1056 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE DEPTH HAS BEEN REDUCED AS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE
LOW 60S WEST TO MID 60S CENTRAL AND EAST. IN ADDITION...THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE HAS WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY
WHICH MEANS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TODAY FOR
MOST AREAS. LIGHT ECHOES IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION AND PRECIP IS LIKELY NOT
REACHING THE GROUND. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS GENERALLY ON TRACK AND
A JUST A FEW CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS WERE MADE FOR TRENDS.
CONCERNING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IT STILL APPEARS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
HAVE SOME THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS BUT THERE ARE SOME MIXED
SIGNALS IN THE DATA TODAY. THE STRONG CAP WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY IMPEDANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A LOWER MOISTURE DEPTH
MAY RESULT IN DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT MORE THAN FORECAST WHICH WOULD
KEEP CIN VALUES TOO HIGH. THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO BE POSITIONED
FARTHER WEST TODAY AND ALONG A LINE FROM VERNON TO SAN ANGELO.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL DATA IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND RESULT IN
HEIGHT FALLS. THIS BIT OF FORCING WOULD HELP TO ERODE THE CAP AND
WOULD FAVOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FIELDS ARE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER TODAY AND STORMS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE MORE
EASTERLY AND INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RUC
KEEPS ALL ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST...BUT THE HRRR AND 12Z NAM ARE
BRINGING IT INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. SOME OF THE OTHER HI-RES
MODELS ARE NOT EVEN INITIATING...SO AGAIN POPS WILL BE GENERALLY
JUST 20 PERCENT WEST OF A GAINESVILLE TO MINERAL WELLS TO
GOLDTHWAITE DUE TO INITIATION AND STORM MOTION UNCERTAINTIES. DUE
TO STEEP LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH WITH CAPES LIKELY
OVER 3000 J/KG AT PEAK HEATING...AND THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IN OUR
CWA WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES THE
CAP WILL REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...BUT
THESE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SPRINKLES AND GUSTY WINDS FROM STORM
ANVILS LATER THIS EVENING.
TR.92
&&
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...NOCTURNAL STRATUS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST.
STRATUS HAS SLOWLY MADE ITS WAY UP THE I-35 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY COMPONENT ABOVE THE STRATUS IS REDUCING THE
DEPTH OF THE LAYER AND SHOULD KEEP THE DECK SOUTH AND EAST OF
METROPLEX TAF SITES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. MAY IMPACT WEST DEPARTURES AND
NORTHWEST ARRIVALS...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ISSUES AT TAF
SITES.
A MORE VIGOROUS LLJ SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE THE PROBABILITY
OF MORNING STRATUS.
25
&&
.SHORT TERM...
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS WEST TX/OK BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE THE
SURFACE DRYLINE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. LIFT FROM
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
100 DEGREES AND THE RESULTING VERY HIGH INSTABILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS TYPICALLY
THE TIME OF THE YEAR/MID MAY-LATE JUNE/ THAT THE DRYLINE OUT WEST IS
THE MOST ACTIVE...USUALLY PRODUCING DIURNAL SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
LATE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. EXPECT MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING IN AND NEAR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
CURRENT SHEAR AND BUNKERS METHOD INDICATE THERE WILL BE MORE
STEERING CURRENTS TO THE NORTHEAST VERSUS YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING. HOWEVER...AS WITH ANY SUPERCELL DEVIANT
MOTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ONCE ANY MESOCYCLONES DEVELOP WITHIN
THE STORMS THEMSELVES. DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS WITH THE HOT
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...JUST ABOUT ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. EXPECT ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE EVENING AND EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE MORE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES VERSUS JUST THE WEST...AS A
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OK/KS. THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A
BETTER PUSH TO EAST ACROSS THOSE AREAS NORTH OF I-20 IN RESPONSE
TO THIS SHORTWAVE. THE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND RISK
WILL BE OVER EASTERN OK INTO THE OZARKS...BUT SHOULD ZIPPER A FEW
STORMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE RED RIVER BY EVENING. ALL THREATS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY (MAY 17) WAS THE FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY AT DFW AIRPORT THIS
YEAR. IT WAS ALSO THE FIRST TIME NORTH TEXAS HAS SEEN 100 DEGREES
IN 2013. GRAHAM HIT 101...AND BRECKENRIDGE PEAKED AT 104.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 73 92 72 91 / 5 5 10 20 10
WACO, TX 92 71 91 73 90 / 5 5 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 88 70 87 68 87 / 5 5 5 20 10
DENTON, TX 93 72 90 72 90 / 5 10 10 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 90 72 89 71 88 / 5 5 5 20 10
DALLAS, TX 93 73 91 74 91 / 5 5 10 20 10
TERRELL, TX 90 71 90 71 89 / 5 5 5 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 91 71 89 73 90 / 5 5 5 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 92 71 91 72 90 / 5 5 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 96 70 94 69 95 / 5 20 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHGX 181523
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1023 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS PRESENT ACROSS SE TX THIS MORNING. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS FAIRLY TIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AND COASTAL MARINE ZONES. AN ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z
UPPER AIR PRESSURE SURFACES SHOWED A VERY WARM LAYER OVERHEAD.
THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY THE LARGE CAP IN PLACE ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AT KCRP...KLCH...AND KSHV. A FAIRLY DEEP LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERN FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOVE 850MB WAS HELPING TO ADVECT SMOKE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO OVERHEAD OUR AREA. FURTHER ALOFT THE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL RIDGE WAS MOVING OVERHEAD THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A HAZY AFTERNOON TO DEVELOP AS THE
MORNING CLOUDINESS SCATTERS OUT. THE SMOKE AND HAZE SHOULD HELP
GENERATE A BIT OF A GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND WARM TEMPERATURES UP A
BIT OVER THE INLAND SITES. TOWARD THE COAST...THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES. UPDATES
WERE TO THE WIND GRIDS AND ADDED AN SCEC TO THE MARINE GROUPS
BEYOND 20 NM AND WEST OF FREEPORT WITHIN 20 NM AND INCLUDING
MATAGORDA BAY.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 91 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 90 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 82 73 82 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...43
000
FXUS64 KEWX 181455
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
955 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BROUGHT
THE ISOLATED STORMS FUTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AS
WELL. OTHERWISE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER MID
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. I-35 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR CLOUDS BY
LATE MORNING. IFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. I-35
CORRIDOR WINDS SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING
TO SOUTH 15 TO 25 KTS BY LATE MORNING. WINDS LOWERING TO SOUTHEAST
10 TO 15 KTS TOWARDS SUNSET. KDRT TERMINAL BRIEF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING BECOMING VFR CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING.
KDRT WINDS SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
HOT PATTERN TO CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY WITH MORE NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO A SLOW TREND OF MODERATING TEMPS.
MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE DRYLINE AND
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE SHARPER INTERFACE BETWEEN THE
HOT AND DRY AIR AND THE DEEP LOW-TO-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
FARTHER NORTH. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE ANY STRONG STORM
THREATS IN THE HWO FOR THE LACK OF EXPECTED COVERAGE. TROUGHING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN US WILL NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT COULD CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
SHIFTING DRY-LINE WELL MIXED TO PRECLUDE THE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE DRY-
LINE FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT ISOLATED POPS ARE CONTINUED
TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE TRIGGERING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SW AND AN INCREASING MOISTURE TAP FROM THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC...AIDED BY THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD
TREND BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS AS AFTERNOON MIXING BRINGS DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SW. BY TUESDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF I-35 OVER NE TX AND COULD SET UP
A MORE PRODUCTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR NW FLOW THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO N TX...SO THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COOL AIR AVECTION AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO BRING A QUICK RETURN TO STABILITY FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGING TO BE DIRTY TO ALLOW FOR
AIR MASS STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITHOUT A
SPECIFIC FOCUS OR MOISTURE TAP TO HIGHLIGHT DURING THIS
PERIOD...WILL STICK WITH A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST FOR SILENT 10
POPS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5/18
ATT 97/1925
AUS 94/2003 AND OTHER YEARS
SAT 97/1989 AND OTHER YEARS
DRT 103/2003 AND OTHER YEARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 96 72 93 72 94 / - - 10 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 94 70 92 70 94 / - - 10 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 94 70 93 70 94 / - - 10 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 93 70 92 70 92 / - - 10 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 102 74 100 74 102 / 20 20 10 10 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 94 70 91 70 92 / - - 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 71 96 71 96 / - 10 10 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 94 71 91 71 91 / - - 10 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 72 92 72 93 / - - 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 95 73 94 73 94 / - - 10 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 73 94 73 94 / - - 10 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
000
FXUS64 KFWD 181210 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
710 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...NOCTURNAL STRATUS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST.
STRATUS HAS SLOWLY MADE ITS WAY UP THE I-35 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY COMPONENT ABOVE THE STRATUS IS REDUCING THE
DEPTH OF THE LAYER AND SHOULD KEEP THE DECK SOUTH AND EAST OF
METROPLEX TAF SITES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH
THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. MAY IMPACT WEST DEPARTURES AND
NORTHWEST ARRIVALS...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ISSUES AT TAF
SITES.
A MORE VIGOROUS LLJ SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE THE PROBABILITY
OF MORNING STRATUS.
25
&&
.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY (MAY 17) WAS THE FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY AT DFW AIRPORT THIS
YEAR. IT WAS ALSO THE FIRST TIME NORTH TEXAS HAS SEEN 100 DEGREES
IN 2013. GRAHAM HIT 101...AND BRECKENRIDGE PEAKED AT 104.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS WEST TX/OK BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE THE
SURFACE DRYLINE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. LIFT FROM
BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
100 DEGREES AND THE RESULTING VERY HIGH INSTABILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS IS TYPICALLY
THE TIME OF THE YEAR/MID MAY-LATE JUNE/ THAT THE DRYLINE OUT WEST IS
THE MOST ACTIVE...USUALLY PRODUCING DIURNAL SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
LATE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. EXPECT MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING IN AND NEAR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
CURRENT SHEAR AND BUNKERS METHOD INDICATE THERE WILL BE MORE
STEERING CURRENTS TO THE NORTHEAST VERSUS YESTERDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING. HOWEVER...AS WITH ANY SUPERCELL DEVIANT
MOTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ONCE ANY MESOCYCLONES DEVELOP WITHIN
THE STORMS THEMSELVES. DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS WITH THE HOT
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...JUST ABOUT ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. EXPECT ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN BY LATE EVENING AND EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE MORE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES VERSUS JUST THE WEST...AS A
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OK/KS. THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL HAVE A
BETTER PUSH TO EAST ACROSS THOSE AREAS NORTH OF I-20 IN RESPONSE
TO THIS SHORTWAVE. THE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND RISK
WILL BE OVER EASTERN OK INTO THE OZARKS...BUT SHOULD ZIPPER A FEW
STORMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE RED RIVER BY EVENING. ALL THREATS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OZARKS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THE
CAPPING INVERSION HAS LOWERED AND STRENGTHENED COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO WHEN PREDAWN/ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPED AROUND DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT OVER 8 DEG C/KM BETWEEN
575-850MB AND SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 4000 J/KG EXISTED THIS PAST
EVENING ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING. A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WAS
ORGANIZING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE A PLAYER ALONG WITH THE SURFACE
DRYLINE...THEN EVENTUALLY A WEAK COLD FRONT FOR EPISODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 73 92 72 91 / 5 5 10 20 10
WACO, TX 92 71 91 73 90 / 5 5 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 88 70 87 68 87 / 10 5 5 20 10
DENTON, TX 93 72 90 72 90 / 5 10 10 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 90 72 89 71 88 / 5 5 5 20 10
DALLAS, TX 93 73 91 74 91 / 5 5 10 20 10
TERRELL, TX 90 71 90 71 89 / 5 5 5 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 91 71 89 73 90 / 5 5 5 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 92 71 91 72 90 / 5 5 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 96 70 94 69 95 / 5 20 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/05
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