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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241154
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
654 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast for Fog Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Visibilities beginning to fall across the area as fog thickens.
Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the Permian Basin... Trans
Pecos... and Southeast New Mexico.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Fog increasing across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin with vsbys
expected to fall to LIFR at HOB... INK... and PEQ... and IFR at
MAF. Not much stratus expected. By late morning most of the fog
should be gone with conditions improving to VFR areawide. Wind
will be southerly at 10kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and light winds have once again provided great
conditions for radiation fog to develop across parts of the area.
Given boundary layer moisture this morning is less than 24 hours
ago, widespread dense fog is not expected, though motorists and
others traveling this morning should be prepared for patchy fog that
could cause temporary visibility restrictions.

Upper ridging and high pressure will continue to build across the
region today, allowing for temperatures to rise to the middle 80s
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, with
upper 70s expected over the Marfa Plateau and Guadalupe Mountains.
The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with near
record high temperatures possible on Sunday, with highs Sunday
currently forecast to be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with
the exception of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and
Rio Grande Valley where low to possibly middle 90s are not out of
the question. The forecast high for Midland Sunday is 89 degrees,
one degree shy of the record of 90 set in 1950.

The aforementioned  upper level ridge will begin to flatten out
Sunday into Monday as the next Pacific trough works its way
eastward. Recent model runs have come into better agreement
regarding the trough passage early next week, as well as the
accompanying cold front which is expected to move through the area
early on Tuesday. Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of the
front, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage, though will serve
to drop temperatures into the 70s across Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas for midweek. Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a
secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with both models generating light
QPF over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains in southeasterly
return flow.  Thus, have maintained the low PoPs over this area,
though have still held off on mention of showers for the time being,
given how much can change between now and then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  56  85  58  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              85  59  86  60  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                84  54  87  57  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  85  59  87  60  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  60  88  61  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  59  81  62  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   84  54  86  55  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   79  46  80  48  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  58  86  57  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  85  59  86  59  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    88  57  91  57  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM MDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 241143 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
643 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. REMOVED PATCHY FOG AS
DEVELOPMENT IS SLOW...AND CHANCES FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL
DIMINISH EVEN FURTHER WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
E-NE WIND TODAY WILL BRIEFLY VEER OUT OF THE E-SE THIS AFTN
5-10KTS FOR CRP- ALI- VCT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. FOR LRD...A GENERAL E-SE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
IN THE SHORT TERM. DAYTIME HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY TODAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER NIGHT
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DIP ONCE MORE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TONIGHT. GENERAL LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SATURDAY...WITH WINDS VEERING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...GFS/ECMWF PROG A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH INITIALLY A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS/TROUGHS OVER THE WEST AND EAST CONUS COASTS. THE WRN TROUGH IS
PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM DEVELOPS/MOVES ACRS THE SWRN CONUS. AS A RESULT...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROGD TO ENTER THE REGION. CONCUR WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN WHICH POSITIONS THE FRONT ACRS CNRL/NRN TX WEDNESDAY THEN ACRS
SRN/CNTRL TX THURSDAY. CONCUR WITH GFS/ECMWF ONSHORE FLOW...AND
ASSOCIATED MSTR INCREASE...IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING
DISTURBANCES. THE GFS PROG PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MSTR/PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/INCREASING INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLD CONVECTION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY ACRS THE CWA/MSA. AFTERWARD...
CONCUR WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC WHICH DEPICT
RIDGING ALOFT...ASSOCIATED SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE CWA/MSA...AND SUBSEQUENT DRYING...BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  62  87  61  85  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          87  58  88  58  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            89  66  91  63  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             88  61  90  60  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          82  64  84  67  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           89  62  90  59  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        87  60  89  59  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       84  67  85  68  80  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





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000
FXUS64 KSJT 241141
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
640 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy fog will produce MVFR visibilities at KSJT, KJCT and KSOA
through 14Z, otherwise VFR conditions expected across the terminals
today. Clear skies and light winds will prevail tonight. There may
be some patchy fog again early Saturday morning but will leave out
of the forecast at this time due to coverage uncertainty.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will prevail across the West
Central Texas today as an upper level ridge builds east from the
Desert Southwest. There will be some patchy fog across southern and
western sections early this morning but this will burn off by mid
morning, with mostly sunny skies expected for the rest of the day.
We`ll see above normal temperatures this afternoon with highs
topping out in the mid and upper 80s across most of the area.

Expect clear skies and light winds tonight, with overnight lows
ranging from the mid and upper 50s south, to the lower 60s north.
Some patchy fog may develop again towards daybreak, primarily
across southern and southwest counties, where stronger radiational
cooling will lead to boundary layer saturation.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Friday)

A warm and dry forecast for this weekend into early next week, then
cooler temperatures for the middle of next week. The combination of
an upper level ridge and low level south to southwest flow will
bring above normal temperatures Saturday through Monday. Highs will
be in the mid 80s to around 90. A cool front will move through West
Central Texas Monday night and Tuesday, bringing cooler air into the
area. Temperatures will be around seasonable values for Tuesday
through Friday, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows in the
50s. Will keep the slight chance POPS going Tuesday night and
Wednesday southeast of a Ozona to San Angelo to Coleman line.
Otherwise, going with a dry forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  85  61  88  61  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  85  58  88  57  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  85  56  87  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24









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000
FXUS64 KHGX 241140
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
640 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE TEXAS GULF
COAST WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS TO CONTINUE. A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KLBX WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING...BUT BASED ON LOW CONFIDENCE REMOVED MENTION
FROM TAF.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS TEXAS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
WEATHER BENIGN THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMER ON THE ISLAND FOR LOWS
ALL WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING BUILDS EASTWARD AND OUT INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY TURNING WINDS ACROSS SETX TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASING NOTICEABLY ON MONDAY...MAY EVEN APPROACH
BREEZY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOISTURE
RETURNS QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES FINALLY
INCREASING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD SLOW
AND STALL OVER N TX KEEPING SETX IN WAA WITH WEAK S/W FORCING TUE
AND WEDNESDAY. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE DRAMATICALLY BY THIS POINT
WEDNESDAY WITH ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AS UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH RIDGING. FOR NOW WILL FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AND BLEND IT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WHICH SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TUE THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE REGION ON FRIDAY SETTING
US UP FOR A COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AROUND THE 1ST OF NOVEMBER.
45

MARINE...

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS... WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WILL ENCOURAGE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
EVENING AS IT SLIDES SOUTH OVER THE GULF. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION TO GENERATING BUILDING SEAS... STRONG WINDS MAY WARRANT AN
SCEC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  58  85  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  54  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  64  81  70  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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000
FXUS64 KBRO 241134 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 3SM WITH FOG AT KT65 TO NEAR 6SM
WITH FOG AT KMFE. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY
FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AS THE 500MB
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BLEND OF MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS
TOO COOL FOR TEMPS TODAY AND SATURDAY AND TOO WARM FOR TEMPS
TONIGHT SO WILL ADJUST HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SAT AFTERNOON AND ADJUST LOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT.

LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THEN...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW AND THIS
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST VEERING WINDS TO THE SE BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND AS A RESULT INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG THE COAST AND
THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH RH VALUES OF LESS
THAN 60 PERCENT WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING INTO THE 90S ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 60S BUT BY MONDAY MORNING THE SE FLOW ADVECTING WARMER AIR WILL
BRING LOWS BACK TO THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO INCREASE
AND FOR DEEPER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CWA. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ON
WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH GETS INTO THE TEXAS
REGION. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS SE FLOW BACKS WINDS
MORE EASTERLY ALLOWING FOR DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO SURGE INTO
THE CWA AND KEEP THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THIS SE TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WARM UP INTO THE 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED IS GOING TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE CWA. THERE AREA SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF 00Z
MODEL RUNS SHOWING STILL DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS NOT AS PRONOUNCE WITH THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THEREFORE
KEEPING THE SE FLOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS MORE DIFFERENCES AS IT SHOWS
A STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST WHILE BROAD HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE DESERT SW. THIS PATTERN COULD BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
AND LOWER TEMPS AND RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT AN
EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN THE MODELS.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 6 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
OF THE GULF WATERS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH LIGHT SE WINDS
RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND SURGES DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AS WELL AS WINDS AND SEAS.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN SCEC LEVEL BUT SCA CRITERIA COULD BE REACH
IF THE TREND CONTINUOUS TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS. CONVECTION
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BUT SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AFTER TUESDAY. THE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER... MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFERENCES AS TO
WHEN WOULD IT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. KEPT EASTERLY FLOW WITH
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67/BILLINGS





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000
FXUS64 KFWD 241129 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
629 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE.

ALL AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KTS TODAY...AS THE REGION
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEAK LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST.
A STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER AZ/NM WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A STRIPE OF MOISTURE LOCATED AT 800MB
EARLY TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR BROKEN VFR CIGS 5-6KFT WITH SCATTERED
CIRRUS ARRIVING IN NORTH FLOW. AS THE UPPER HIGH EXPANDS...SKIES
SHOULD BECOME SKC HEADING INTO SATURDAY.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATES THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...RESULTING IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 90 ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. THE
SATURDAY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT DFW IS 89 WHICH IS CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE /THE WACO RECORD WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO REACH AT 94/.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE 140W LONGITUDINAL LINE
IN THE PACIFIC WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND IN OUR UPPER RIDGE.
LEE ROCKIES SURFACE TROUGHING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULTING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO
THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE BEGUN DAMPENING BY THEN WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY EXHIBITING A POSITIVE TILT APPEARANCE. THIS
TYPICALLY RESULTS IN LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT
BROAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 TO
30 POPS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...WITH ACTIVITY OCCURRING MAINLY NEAR THE
FRONT.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES ANOTHER
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND BRINGS A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS. IF THE ECMWF
IS CORRECT...WE WOULD NEED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL POPS THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE TRENDED WARMER THAN THE ECMWF BUT
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THE GFS IN THE DAYS 6-7 PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. WE HAVE ALSO LEFT OUT POPS FOR NEXT THURSDAY-FRIDAY FOR
NOW AND WOULD PREFER TO GET SOME BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE
TRENDING ONE WAY OR ANOTHER ON DAY 7.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  63  90  65  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              85  60  90  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             81  59  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            85  60  91  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          83  59  89  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            85  64  90  66  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           83  60  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         83  61  87  62  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            84  60  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  60  91  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30






000
FXUS64 KMAF 241120
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Fog increasing across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin with vsbys
expected to fall to LIFR at HOB... INK... and PEQ... and IFR at
MAF. Not much stratus expected. By late morning most of the fog
should be gone with conditions improving to VFR areawide. Wind
will be southerly at 10kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and light winds have once again provided great
conditions for radiation fog to develop across parts of the area.
Given boundary layer moisture this morning is less than 24 hours
ago, widespread dense fog is not expected, though motorists and
others traveling this morning should be prepared for patchy fog that
could cause temporary visibility restrictions.

Upper ridging and high pressure will continue to build across the
region today, allowing for temperatures to rise to the middle 80s
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, with
upper 70s expected over the Marfa Plateau and Guadalupe Mountains.
The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with near
record high temperatures possible on Sunday, with highs Sunday
currently forecast to be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with
the exception of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and
Rio Grande Valley where low to possibly middle 90s are not out of
the question. The forecast high for Midland Sunday is 89 degrees,
one degree shy of the record of 90 set in 1950.

The aforementioned  upper level ridge will begin to flatten out
Sunday into Monday as the next Pacific trough works its way
eastward. Recent model runs have come into better agreement
regarding the trough passage early next week, as well as the
accompanying cold front which is expected to move through the area
early on Tuesday. Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of the
front, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage, though will serve
to drop temperatures into the 70s across Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas for midweek. Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a
secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with both models generating light
QPF over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains in southeasterly
return flow.  Thus, have maintained the low PoPs over this area,
though have still held off on mention of showers for the time being,
given how much can change between now and then.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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  [top]

000
FXUS64 KAMA 241109 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
609 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG AT KAMA THROUGH SUNRISE...OTHERWISE
LIGHT SW/S WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED. NO SIGNIFICANT/IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

THERE ARE A FEW TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT ON THE
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THESE WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. ONE IS TIMING OF CIRRUS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALBEIT VERY LITTLE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE THIRD DAY OF
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON UPPER TROUGH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MOISTENING
OF MID LEVELS CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
OVERLY HIGH IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION GIVEN QUITE DRY LOW LEVELS
AND AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF IT HAPPENS AT
ALL. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS FURTHER EAST
INTO OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MORE EXTENSIVE AND PROLONGED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

TWO OTHER ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THIS FORECAST ARE PRE AND POST
FRONTAL WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD NOT FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT.
WE WILL SEE HOW THE STRENGTH/GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH EVOLVES BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN BUT AS IS DEPICTED AT THIS POINT POST FRONTAL SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES AND/OR WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER REALLY
WOULD NOT SUPPORT WINDS OVER ABOUT 20-25 MPH.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW
DISAGREEMENT TOWARD MID WEEK. THE GENERAL THEME TOWARD THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD IS FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO RETURN ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BRB

AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...AN OUTSIDE PSBLTY EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR
SUNRISE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE OR IF IT WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL. THEREFORE....HAVE OMITTED FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/17





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLUB 241105
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
605 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
SHALLOW FOG HAS CEASED AT LBB TERMINAL...BUT CONTINUES AT CDS.
THIS FOG IS VERY PATCHY IN NATURE...BUT MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH AT
TIMES TO RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT CDS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANY LINGERING FOG AT DAYBREAK WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE...AND VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 12 TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RADIATION FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  WHILE THOSE TWO FACTORS ARE IN PLACE...AND INDEED PATCHY FOG
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR AND ON THE ROLLING
PLAINS...THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY WORK AGAINST THIS.  IN
PARTICULAR...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE QUICKLY VEERING TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS...SLOWLY ADVECTING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WHILE THIS ISN`T NECESSARILY A DEATH
SENTENCE FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT EVEN IN SOME OF THESE
DRIER AREAS TEMP/DPT SPREADS ARE SMALL...GENERALLY SPEAKING THIS
WIND PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THIS
TREND...IT SEEMS THAT THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR PERSISTENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER AND WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO VEER.  A FEW PLACES
MAY EVEN SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...BUT AT THE PRESENT TIME THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS TOO MARGINAL TO INTRODUCE ANY FOG
HEADLINES.  WILL MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

BY MID-MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BURN OFF...REVEALING
BLUE-BIRD SKIES THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES UNDER THE CORE OF THE UPPER HIGH
WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 83-88 DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR FOG POTENTIAL YET AGAIN...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE IT SEEMS A BIT MORE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP THINGS
WARM AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.  FLOW REGIME BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO SUNDAY AS TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  AS TROUGH INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER...FLOW CURVATURE TO OUR WEST WILL INCREASE CYCLONICALLY FOR
MONDAY WITH NEAR ZONAL THROUGH TUE.  A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST
IN INTO THURSDAY.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH INTENSIFIES.  THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SNEAKS INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.  THE FRONT SHOULD SAG TO NEAR THE I20 CORRIDOR BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE THOUGH TUESDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE A FAIR BIT
COOLER.  SOUTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW RETURNS IN EARNEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND BUT STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD EVEN SET UP A SCENARIO FOR FIRST FREEZE
ON HALLOWEEN.  SPOOKY!  NEVERTHELESS...MODELS VARY A FAIR BIT BEYOND
DAY 4.  ALL IN ALL...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THINGS JUST DO NOT LOOK THAT GOOD AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  47  84  50  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         84  52  86  53  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     84  53  86  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     83  51  85  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       84  53  86  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  51  84  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    83  52  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     88  58  92  59  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          86  55  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     86  58  90  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/26/16





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 241055
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
555 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SKC TO FEW035-060. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL
KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL AT KDRT. VRBL
WINDS THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING S TO SE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AT THE I-35 TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 10 AM. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ON SATURDAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. AT THIS
TIME... IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN TODAY...BUT
WE COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RECORD TERRITORY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE DO
EXPECT A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS
ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A KERRVILLE TO SAN ANTONIO TO KARNES CITY
LINE LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY EASE INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS (LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES) TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY VS. THE
GFS MODEL AND IT/S UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  63  90  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  58  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  61  90  59  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  61  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           85  62  87  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        85  61  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  57  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  60  89  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  60  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  64  89  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  62  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24






000
FXUS64 KEWX 241055
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
555 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SKC TO FEW035-060. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL
KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL AT KDRT. VRBL
WINDS THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING S TO SE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AT THE I-35 TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 10 AM. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ON SATURDAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. AT THIS
TIME... IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN TODAY...BUT
WE COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RECORD TERRITORY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE DO
EXPECT A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS
ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A KERRVILLE TO SAN ANTONIO TO KARNES CITY
LINE LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY EASE INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS (LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES) TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY VS. THE
GFS MODEL AND IT/S UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  63  90  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  58  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  61  90  59  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  61  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           85  62  87  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        85  61  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  57  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  60  89  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  60  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  64  89  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  62  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24






000
FXUS64 KHGX 240955
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
455 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS TEXAS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
WEATHER BENIGN THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMER ON THE ISLAND FOR LOWS
ALL WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS.

UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING BUILDS EASTWARD AND OUT INTO
THE GULF ON SUNDAY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY TURNING WINDS ACROSS SETX TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASING NOTICEABLY ON MONDAY...MAY EVEN APPROACH
BREEZY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY...MOISTURE
RETURNS QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES FINALLY
INCREASING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD SLOW
AND STALL OVER N TX KEEPING SETX IN WAA WITH WEAK S/W FORCING TUE
AND WEDNESDAY. GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE DRAMATICALLY BY THIS POINT
WEDNESDAY WITH ECMWF PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AS UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND MUCH WEAKER WITH RIDGING. FOR NOW WILL FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AND BLEND IT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WHICH SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN TUE THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE REGION ON FRIDAY SETTING
US UP FOR A COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AROUND THE 1ST OF NOVEMBER.
45


&&
.MARINE...

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS... WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WILL ENCOURAGE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
EVENING AS IT SLIDES SOUTH OVER THE GULF. ANTICIPATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION TO GENERATING BUILDING SEAS... STRONG WINDS MAY WARRANT AN
SCEC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

14
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  58  85  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              84  54  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  64  81  70  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 240943
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
343 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND MOSTLY WARM FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE BORDERLAND OVER
THE NEXT WEEK AS OUR UPPER FLOW IS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY AND COOL
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY SITTING JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST
CREATING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH VERY FEW CLOUDS GENERATING FROM THAT. A WEAK
UPPER LOW RESIDES JUST SOUTH OF THIS HIGH CENTER. THE HIGH WILL
RECENTER OVER NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD GIVE US 48 HOURS OF LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AND PASS OVER NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY. MODELS SHOWING ONLY WEAK PVA AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH
THIS TROUGH. NICE ~100 KT JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH BUT MODELS
SHOW JET MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH CWA REMAINING OUT OF
FAVORED LIFT AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TOKEN POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY BUT NOTHING MENTIONABLE. GFS SHOWS DECENT SWATH OF HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...
BUT JUST EXPECT MID/HIGH CLDS WITH THIS.

A BETTER DEFINED PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES IN RIGHT BEHIND THE WEAK
TROUGH AND REACHES THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN FEATURE SHOULD
BE MOSTLY DRY AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT THE HIGHER CLOUDS OF THE
FIRST TROUGH. TROUGH COULD PICK UP WINDS SOME MONDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH FOR NOW KEPT WINDS JUST BELOW BREEZY CATEGORY. TROUGH APPEARS
TO BRING WEAK PAC COOL FRONT THROUGH ALSO SO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS SHOULD COOL SOME MONDAY AND THEN
FURTHER TO BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THE FLOW REMAINS ZONAL BEHIND THE MONDAY
TROUGH WITH DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING RIDGE AHEAD OF
IT OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DAMPENING OUT AND
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA ON THE WEEKEND. ONE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH
FOR...GFS IS ADVERTISING WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT MOVING IN
WEDNESDAY AND A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST MOISTURE SURGE INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEW POINTS RISE TO OR SURPASS 50
DEG WITH EVEN A BIT OF QPF JUST EAST OF HUDSPETH. SINCE THIS IS DAY
7 OF FORECAST...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER DAY OR
TWO OF CONSISTENCY OF THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/12Z-25/12Z...
VFR...WX NIL...CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW LAYERS OF CIRRUS
FL220 AND ABOVE MAY SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
5-10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AND WARM PATTERN OVERALL EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK. UPPER HIGH
NEAR NORTHERN BAJA WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST...OVER NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN TO TEXAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD SOME HIGHER CLOUDS TO THE FIRE ZONES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES. SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A WEAK PACIFIC COOL
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AND BRIEFLY COOL TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE WARM UP BACK ABOVE NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. MIN RH`S WILL RUN ABOUT 25-35% LOWLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE MIN RH`S FOR THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM 30-40% THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 82  57  83  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           79  53  78  54  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              80  53  80  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              81  52  80  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              68  40  69  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   79  54  78  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             76  50  77  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  81  50  81  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               81  50  81  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      82  59  82  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               81  48  80  50  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            84  56  83  55  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              79  55  81  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  83  52  84  52  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            81  54  81  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          80  56  79  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           81  44  80  46  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   80  49  79  49  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                80  54  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               81  56  80  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 75  46  75  45  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               75  43  75  43  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                73  43  74  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 74  46  75  47  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               77  53  78  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               80  50  78  49  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            75  46  76  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  78  50  80  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   81  42  82  42  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              80  38  80  39  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 77  51  77  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  83  53  83  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 81  49  81  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          84  49  84  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              83  53  85  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER









000
FXUS64 KLUB 240940
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
440 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RADIATION FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  WHILE THOSE TWO FACTORS ARE IN PLACE...AND INDEED PATCHY FOG
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR AND ON THE ROLLING
PLAINS...THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY WORK AGAINST THIS.  IN
PARTICULAR...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE QUICKLY VEERING TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS...SLOWLY ADVECTING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WHILE THIS ISN`T NECESSARILY A DEATH
SENTENCE FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT EVEN IN SOME OF THESE
DRIER AREAS TEMP/DPT SPREADS ARE SMALL...GENERALLY SPEAKING THIS
WIND PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THIS
TREND...IT SEEMS THAT THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR PERSISTENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER AND WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO VEER.  A FEW PLACES
MAY EVEN SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...BUT AT THE PRESENT TIME THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS TOO MARGINAL TO INTRODUCE ANY FOG
HEADLINES.  WILL MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

BY MID-MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BURN OFF...REVEALING
BLUE-BIRD SKIES THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES UNDER THE CORE OF THE UPPER HIGH
WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 83-88 DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR FOG POTENTIAL YET AGAIN...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE IT SEEMS A BIT MORE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP THINGS
WARM AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.  FLOW REGIME BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO SUNDAY AS TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  AS TROUGH INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER...FLOW CURVATURE TO OUR WEST WILL INCREASE CYCLONICALLY FOR
MONDAY WITH NEAR ZONAL THROUGH TUE.  A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST
IN INTO THURSDAY.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH INTENSIFIES.  THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SNEAKS INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.  THE FRONT SHOULD SAG TO NEAR THE I20 CORRIDOR BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE THOUGH TUESDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE A FAIR BIT
COOLER.  SOUTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW RETURNS IN EARNEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND BUT STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD EVEN SET UP A SCENARIO FOR FIRST FREEZE
ON HALLOWEEN.  SPOOKY!  NEVERTHELESS...MODELS VARY A FAIR BIT BEYOND
DAY 4.  ALL IN ALL...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THINGS JUST DO NOT LOOK THAT GOOD AT THIS
POINT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  47  84  50  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         84  52  86  53  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     84  53  86  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     83  51  85  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       84  53  86  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  51  84  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    83  52  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     88  58  92  59  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          86  55  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     86  58  90  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/26






000
FXUS64 KCRP 240932
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
IN THE SHORT TERM. DAYTIME HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS...TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY TODAY AND SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER NIGHT
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DIP ONCE MORE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TONIGHT. GENERAL LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SATURDAY...WITH WINDS VEERING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...GFS/ECMWF PROG A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WITH INITIALLY A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS/TROUGHS OVER THE WEST AND EAST CONUS COASTS. THE WRN TROUGH IS
PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER
SYSTEM DEVELOPS/MOVES ACRS THE SWRN CONUS. AS A RESULT...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROGD TO ENTER THE REGION. CONCUR WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN WHICH POSITIONS THE FRONT ACRS CNRL/NRN TX WEDNESDAY THEN ACRS
SRN/CNTRL TX THURSDAY. CONCUR WITH GFS/ECMWF ONSHORE FLOW...AND
ASSOCIATED MSTR INCREASE...IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING
DISTURBANCES. THE GFS PROG PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MSTR/PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/INCREASING INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLD CONVECTION WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY ACRS THE CWA/MSA. AFTERWARD...
CONCUR WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC WHICH DEPICT
RIDGING ALOFT...ASSOCIATED SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE CWA/MSA...AND SUBSEQUENT DRYING...BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  62  87  61  85  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          87  58  88  58  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            89  66  91  63  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             88  61  90  60  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          82  64  84  67  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           89  62  90  59  89  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        87  60  89  59  87  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       84  67  85  68  80  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KMAF 240928
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
428 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and light winds have once again provided great
conditions for radiation fog to develop across parts of the area.
Given boundary layer moisture this morning is less than 24 hours
ago, widespread dense fog is not expected, though motorists and
others traveling this morning should be prepared for patchy fog that
could cause temporary visibility restrictions.

Upper ridging and high pressure will continue to build across the
region today, allowing for temperatures to rise to the middle 80s
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, with
upper 70s expected over the Marfa Plateau and Guadalupe Mountains.
The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with near
record high temperatures possible on Sunday, with highs Sunday
currently forecast to be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with
the exception of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and
Rio Grande Valley where low to possibly middle 90s are not out of
the question. The forecast high for Midland Sunday is 89 degrees,
one degree shy of the record of 90 set in 1950.

The aforementioned  upper level ridge will begin to flatten out
Sunday into Monday as the next Pacific trough works its way
eastward. Recent model runs have come into better agreement
regarding the trough passage early next week, as well as the
accompanying cold front which is expected to move through the area
early on Tuesday. Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of the
front, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage, though will serve
to drop temperatures into the 70s across Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas for midweek. Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a
secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with both models generating light
QPF over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains in southeasterly
return flow.  Thus, have maintained the low PoPs over this area,
though have still held off on mention of showers for the time being,
given how much can change between now and then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  56  85  58  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              85  59  86  60  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                84  54  87  57  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  85  59  87  60  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  60  88  61  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  59  81  62  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   84  54  86  55  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   79  46  80  48  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  58  86  57  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  85  59  86  59  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    88  57  91  57  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/84

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 240925
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
424 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will prevail across the West
Central Texas today as an upper level ridge builds east from the
Desert Southwest. There will be some patchy fog across southern and
western sections early this morning but this will burn off by mid
morning, with mostly sunny skies expected for the rest of the day.
We`ll see above normal temperatures this afternoon with highs
topping out in the mid and upper 80s across most of the area.

Expect clear skies and light winds tonight, with overnight lows
ranging from the mid and upper 50s south, to the lower 60s north.
Some patchy fog may develop again towards daybreak, primarily
across southern and southwest counties, where stronger radiational
cooling will lead to boundary layer saturation.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Friday)

A warm and dry forecast for this weekend into early next week, then
cooler temperatures for the middle of next week. The combination of
an upper level ridge and low level south to southwest flow will
bring above normal temperatures Saturday through Monday. Highs will
be in the mid 80s to around 90. A cool front will move through West
Central Texas Monday night and Tuesday, bringing cooler air into the
area. Temperatures will be around seasonable values for Tuesday
through Friday, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows in the
50s. Will keep the slight chance POPS going Tuesday night and
Wednesday southeast of a Ozona to San Angelo to Coleman line.
Otherwise, going with a dry forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  85  61  88  61  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  85  58  88  57  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  85  56  87  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/21








000
FXUS64 KEWX 240846 CCA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 10 AM. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ON SATURDAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. AT THIS
TIME... IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN TODAY...BUT
WE COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RECORD TERRITORY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE DO
EXPECT A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS
ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A KERRVILLE TO SAN ANTONIO TO KARNES CITY
LINE LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY EASE INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS (LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES) TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY VS. THE
GFS MODEL AND IT/S UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  63  90  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  58  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  61  90  59  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  61  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           85  62  87  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        85  61  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  57  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  60  89  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  60  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  64  89  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  62  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24











000
FXUS64 KEWX 240839
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
339 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF FOG THROUGH 10 AM. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ON SATURDAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. AT THIS
TIME... IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN TODAY...BUT
WE COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RECORD TERRITORY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE DO
EXPECT A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS
ON TUESDAY AND THIS COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A KERRVILLE TO SAN ANTONIO TO KARNES CITY
LINE LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY EASE INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS (LLANO AND BURNET COUNTIES) TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY VS. THE
GFS MODEL AND IT/S UPPER RIDGE. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              87  63  90  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  58  89  56  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  61  90  59  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  61  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           85  62  87  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        85  61  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  57  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  60  89  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  60  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  64  89  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           87  62  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24









000
FXUS64 KFWD 240827
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATES THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...RESULTING IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 90 ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. THE
SATURDAY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT DFW IS 89 WHICH IS CERTAINLY
ATTAINABLE /THE WACO RECORD WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO REACH AT 94/.

AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE 140W LONGITUDINAL LINE
IN THE PACIFIC WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ON
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND IN OUR UPPER RIDGE.
LEE ROCKIES SURFACE TROUGHING WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULTING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO
THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE BEGUN DAMPENING BY THEN WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY EXHIBITING A POSITIVE TILT APPEARANCE. THIS
TYPICALLY RESULTS IN LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT
BROAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 TO
30 POPS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...WITH ACTIVITY OCCURRING MAINLY NEAR THE
FRONT.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES ANOTHER
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND BRINGS A PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH TEXAS. IF THE ECMWF
IS CORRECT...WE WOULD NEED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL POPS THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE TRENDED WARMER THAN THE ECMWF BUT
NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THE GFS IN THE DAYS 6-7 PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. WE HAVE ALSO LEFT OUT POPS FOR NEXT THURSDAY-FRIDAY FOR
NOW AND WOULD PREFER TO GET SOME BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE
TRENDING ONE WAY OR ANOTHER ON DAY 7.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. NAM/RAP ADVERTISE A BKN035-050 DECK TOMORROW
MORNING...AND HAVE ADDED THAT LAYER TO THE TAFS, INCLUDING WACO.
IT SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING AND THEN CAVOK CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 84


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  85  63  90  65  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              85  60  90  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             81  59  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            85  60  91  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          83  59  89  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            85  64  90  66  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           83  60  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         83  61  87  62  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            84  60  88  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  60  91  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KBRO 240818
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. BLEND OF MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO COOL FOR
TEMPS TODAY AND SATURDAY AND TOO WARM FOR TEMPS TONIGHT SO WILL
ADJUST HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AND
ADJUST LOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THEN...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW AND THIS
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST VEERING WINDS TO THE SE BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND AS A RESULT INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG THE COAST AND
THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH RH VALUES OF LESS
THAN 60 PERCENT WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING INTO THE 90S ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 60S BUT BY MONDAY MORNING THE SE FLOW ADVECTING WARMER AIR WILL
BRING LOWS BACK TO THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO INCREASE
AND FOR DEEPER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CWA. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ON
WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH GETS INTO THE TEXAS
REGION. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS SE FLOW BACKS WINDS
MORE EASTERLY ALLOWING FOR DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO SURGE INTO
THE CWA AND KEEP THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THIS SE TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WARM UP INTO THE 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED IS GOING TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE CWA. THERE AREA SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF 00Z
MODEL RUNS SHOWING STILL DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS NOT AS PRONOUNCE WITH THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THEREFORE
KEEPING THE SE FLOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS MORE DIFFERENCES AS IT SHOWS
A STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST WHILE BROAD HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE DESERT SW. THIS PATTERN COULD BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
AND LOWER TEMPS AND RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT AN
EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN THE MODELS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 6 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
OF THE GULF WATERS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH LIGHT SE WINDS
RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND SURGES DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AS WELL AS WINDS AND SEAS.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN SCEC LEVEL BUT SCA CRITERIA COULD BE REACH
IF THE TREND CONTINUOUS TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS. CONVECTION
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BUT SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AFTER TUESDAY. THE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER... MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFERENCES AS TO
WHEN WOULD IT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. KEPT EASTERLY FLOW WITH
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  84  67  85  67 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          86  64  87  64 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            86  64  87  63 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN              89  65  90  63 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      91  65  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  71  83  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67







000
FXUS64 KAMA 240757
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
257 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED. NO SIGNIFICANT/IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

THERE ARE A FEW TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT ON THE
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THESE WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. ONE IS TIMING OF CIRRUS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY HAVE SOME AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALBEIT VERY LITTLE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE THIRD DAY OF
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON UPPER TROUGH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE NORTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT MOISTENING
OF MID LEVELS CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS IT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
OVERLY HIGH IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION GIVEN QUITE DRY LOW LEVELS
AND AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF IT HAPPENS AT
ALL. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS FURTHER EAST
INTO OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MORE EXTENSIVE AND PROLONGED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

TWO OTHER ITEMS OF INTEREST IN THIS FORECAST ARE PRE AND POST
FRONTAL WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE GENERAL PATTERN WOULD NOT FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT.
WE WILL SEE HOW THE STRENGTH/GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH EVOLVES BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN BUT AS IS DEPICTED AT THIS POINT POST FRONTAL SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES AND/OR WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER REALLY
WOULD NOT SUPPORT WINDS OVER ABOUT 20-25 MPH.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW
DISAGREEMENT TOWARD MID WEEK. THE GENERAL THEME TOWARD THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD IS FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO RETURN ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BRB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...AN OUTSIDE PSBLTY EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR
SUNRISE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE OR IF IT WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL. THEREFORE....HAVE OMITTED FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                86  54  86  54  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  88  53  89  52  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              87  50  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  88  56  90  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              87  52  89  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  87  52  87  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               89  57  89  55  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 85  48  86  47  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  89  50  89  51  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                86  51  86  51  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                86  54  89  55  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   85  56  87  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                88  56  90  54  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              89  57  92  56  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/17






000
FXUS64 KBRO 240534 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP FRI MORNING AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY FRI MORNING THROUGH
FRI AFTERNOON AS 500MB RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CWA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...FAVORABLE FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AMID
MODEST NORTHEAST WINDS. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT
TO SPARK A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WHICH ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST. NOT THINKING THESE ARE GOING TO AMOUNT TO MUCH SO
WILL LEAVE SILENT 10S IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

DRY AIR IS ON THE WAY WITH BRO PWAT OF 1.57 INCHES AND CRP PWAT OF
1.3 INCHES. FURTHER NORTH LIX PWAT WAS 0.36 THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE
TROUGH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND DRY AIR FILTERING IN ON NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW. 700-300MB RH FALLS
BELOW 10 PERCENT AND THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS WELL. PWATS
WILL FALL BELOW AN INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS EVENING...POPS WILL BE VIRTUALLY NIL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA
AND INTO UPPER TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS SOME SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO WENT WITH CONSENSUS BETWEEN MET AND MAV
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WORKING IN. THIS HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON
THE GOING FORECAST...PERHAPS WARMING THE VALLEY UP A DEGREE OR SO.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND LOW WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO DEGRADE NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH
AXIS DIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX WED AND THURS. SOME DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEX.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESS OF THE 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE A LITTLE QUICKER MOVEMENT
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH VERSUS THE GFS. ACCORDINGLY THE ECMWF
SHOWS A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH TX
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG FROPA ACROSS THE LOWER RGV WITH THIS TROUGH
AXIS WITH BOTH MODELS STALLING THE FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE AGREEMENT INDICATED BY
BOTH LONGER RANGE MODELS.

EXPECT OVERALL TEMPS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH DAY 7 DUE
TO THE IMPACT OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LIMITED MOISTURE
VALUES. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS
FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL RECEIVING ELEVATED SEAS
FROM WHATS LEFT OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE BUT AN
OVERALL DECREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST SFC FLOW
CONTINUING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL FROM 4.5 FEET CURRENTLY AT BUOY
42020 TO CLOSER TO 3 FEET BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BUILD THE
WINDS AND SEAS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE A WEAK PGF WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/67






000
FXUS64 KCRP 240521 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1221 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH PATCHY FOG FROM
ALI-VCT BETWEEN 10Z-13Z. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL VEERING OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON 5-10 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    63  86  60  87  65  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          59  88  59  88  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            66  90  65  91  67  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             61  90  59  90  63  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          65  85  66  84  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           63  91  60  91  62  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        60  89  59  88  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       67  85  66  85  70  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KHGX 240502
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1202 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE AT KUTS AND KLBX BUT ANTICIPATE
ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  85  58  87  62 /  10   0  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  84  56  86  61 /  10   0  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  81  67  82  70 /  10   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 240502
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1202 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE AT KUTS AND KLBX BUT ANTICIPATE
ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  85  58  87  62 /  10   0  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  84  56  86  61 /  10   0  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  81  67  82  70 /  10   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 240500
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main concern for the night/early morning is potential for areas of
dense fog. High resolution models NAM BUFR and HRRR rh progs are
supportive of dense fog in a strip from PEQ to INK to HOB and
another area across the SE PB and Lower Trans Pecos. For now have
included 1/4-3/4SM at all but FST/CNM and mainly between 10Z-15Z.
Otherwise winds are light and of little consequence.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 240500
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main concern for the night/early morning is potential for areas of
dense fog. High resolution models NAM BUFR and HRRR rh progs are
supportive of dense fog in a strip from PEQ to INK to HOB and
another area across the SE PB and Lower Trans Pecos. For now have
included 1/4-3/4SM at all but FST/CNM and mainly between 10Z-15Z.
Otherwise winds are light and of little consequence.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KSJT 240459
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1158 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Look for patchy fog to create MVFR visibility during the next 6
hours. Clear skies and surface dew point depressions of only a few
degrees will allow radiational fog to develop. Sonora is already
indicating 5SM. Plan for VFR conditions to again dominate by 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Areas of patchy fog will develop across our southern terminals
overnight, resulting in MVFR visibilities. This fog may attempt to
make it into KSJT as well; but, for now it was left out of the TAF
at that location. Any fog will dissipate by 14z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Low clouds developed over the Concho Valley and I-10 corridor this
morning and have been slow to erode. A diurnal Cu field has
developed where skies have been clear and we`ve seen a few light
showers trying to develop over the northwest Hill Country near San
Saba. The mid-level trough axis is crossing the area this afternoon,
and should be to our east by this evening. This will bring rain
chances to an end and should result in mostly clear skies overnight.
The main caveat to the sky forecast is that light winds, clear
skies, and low-level moisture will allow temps to fall to near the
dewpoint, potentially creating patchy fog late tonight and early
Friday. This may morph into a low cloud deck by sunrise, mainly over
the west. Otherwise, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 50s
across most of the area tonight, with some low-lying areas and river
valleys in the lower 50s.

If any low clouds develop late tonight, they should erode by midday.
Warm and dry conditions are expected during the afternoon with south
winds generally under 10 mph. Afternoon highs are forecast to warm
into the mid 80s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)

An upper level high will shift east across Texas Friday night and
Saturday. This high will be suppressed south into the Gulf of Mexico
on Sunday, as a broad upper trough moves from the northwestern part
of the country east to the northern Rockies. Dry and warm conditions
are expected for our area Saturday through Monday, with highs
well-above normal for this point in October. South winds will
increase, especially Sunday into Monday with lee side surface trough
development and increased surface pressure gradient.

The 12Z GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with the
developments during the early to middle part of next week. The
aforementioned upper trough is progged to move east across the
northern and central Plains late Monday and Monday night, sending
a cold front south across the northern third of our area by 12Z
Tuesday. The front is progged to move south at a slower pace on
Tuesday, and should be just south of the Interstate 10 corridor
by evening.

The upper trough will lift into the upper Midwest on Tuesday, while
a weaker shortwave move east across the Southwestern states. The
front should stall just south of our area Tuesday night. With the
incoming shortwave and moisture lifting up and over the stalled
frontal boundary, the setup favors the possibility of elevated
convection across much of the southern half of our area. Some of the
GFS ensemble members show QPF, along with its 12Z operational run
and that of the 12Z ECMWF. With these indications, have added slight
chance PoPs for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The shortwave trough
should move east across our area Wednesday night, ending rain
chances. Will monitor subsequent model data and may need to adjust
or extend PoPs into Wednesday night. Temperatures will be cooler in
the wake of the frontal passage, with increased cloud cover and the
possibility for precipitation. The models indicate another cold
frontal passage possibility for Day 7 (next Thursday).

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  85  61  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  56  86  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  53  86  54  86  55 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

60/14/60/Huber








000
FXUS64 KSJT 240459
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1158 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Look for patchy fog to create MVFR visibility during the next 6
hours. Clear skies and surface dew point depressions of only a few
degrees will allow radiational fog to develop. Sonora is already
indicating 5SM. Plan for VFR conditions to again dominate by 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Areas of patchy fog will develop across our southern terminals
overnight, resulting in MVFR visibilities. This fog may attempt to
make it into KSJT as well; but, for now it was left out of the TAF
at that location. Any fog will dissipate by 14z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Low clouds developed over the Concho Valley and I-10 corridor this
morning and have been slow to erode. A diurnal Cu field has
developed where skies have been clear and we`ve seen a few light
showers trying to develop over the northwest Hill Country near San
Saba. The mid-level trough axis is crossing the area this afternoon,
and should be to our east by this evening. This will bring rain
chances to an end and should result in mostly clear skies overnight.
The main caveat to the sky forecast is that light winds, clear
skies, and low-level moisture will allow temps to fall to near the
dewpoint, potentially creating patchy fog late tonight and early
Friday. This may morph into a low cloud deck by sunrise, mainly over
the west. Otherwise, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 50s
across most of the area tonight, with some low-lying areas and river
valleys in the lower 50s.

If any low clouds develop late tonight, they should erode by midday.
Warm and dry conditions are expected during the afternoon with south
winds generally under 10 mph. Afternoon highs are forecast to warm
into the mid 80s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)

An upper level high will shift east across Texas Friday night and
Saturday. This high will be suppressed south into the Gulf of Mexico
on Sunday, as a broad upper trough moves from the northwestern part
of the country east to the northern Rockies. Dry and warm conditions
are expected for our area Saturday through Monday, with highs
well-above normal for this point in October. South winds will
increase, especially Sunday into Monday with lee side surface trough
development and increased surface pressure gradient.

The 12Z GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with the
developments during the early to middle part of next week. The
aforementioned upper trough is progged to move east across the
northern and central Plains late Monday and Monday night, sending
a cold front south across the northern third of our area by 12Z
Tuesday. The front is progged to move south at a slower pace on
Tuesday, and should be just south of the Interstate 10 corridor
by evening.

The upper trough will lift into the upper Midwest on Tuesday, while
a weaker shortwave move east across the Southwestern states. The
front should stall just south of our area Tuesday night. With the
incoming shortwave and moisture lifting up and over the stalled
frontal boundary, the setup favors the possibility of elevated
convection across much of the southern half of our area. Some of the
GFS ensemble members show QPF, along with its 12Z operational run
and that of the 12Z ECMWF. With these indications, have added slight
chance PoPs for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The shortwave trough
should move east across our area Wednesday night, ending rain
chances. Will monitor subsequent model data and may need to adjust
or extend PoPs into Wednesday night. Temperatures will be cooler in
the wake of the frontal passage, with increased cloud cover and the
possibility for precipitation. The models indicate another cold
frontal passage possibility for Day 7 (next Thursday).

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  85  61  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  56  86  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  53  86  54  86  55 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

60/14/60/Huber








000
FXUS64 KEWX 240450 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1150 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
NO CHANGES TO EARLIER AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM ALOFT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS MOVES TO THE EAST.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM ALOFT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS MOVES TO THE
EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
POOLED DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNDOWN AS MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT...AS DECOUPLING OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE NORTHERLIES ALOFT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FROM DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL DATA DOES NOT DEPICT FOG
SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW. UPPER RIDGING AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER
NORMALS. THE MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP
LOWER MIN TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE OVER TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK EXPECTED. WEEKEND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR SOME
AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST DAY EXPECTED FROM A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ON SATURDAY. GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
MORNING CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASE OFF...BUT ABOVE
NORMALS WILL REMAIN EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS LOOSELY EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT MODEL DATA HAS YET TO COME INTO FOCUS DUE TO A
RATHER BROAD AND SHALLOW SHAPE TO THE DEVELOPING MID-WEEK UPPER
TROUGH. WILL KEEP WITH THE MORE DELAYED TIMING AND SHOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE MODEST GIVEN A DRY AIR REGIME AND THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  86  63  90  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  86  58  89  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  87  60  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  84  61  87  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  85  62  87  61 /  -    0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  85  61  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  86  57  88  57 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  86  59  90  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  86  60  87  60 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  87  64  88  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  87  62  89  60 /  -    0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29






000
FXUS64 KEWX 240450 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1150 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
NO CHANGES TO EARLIER AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM ALOFT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS MOVES TO THE EAST.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM ALOFT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS MOVES TO THE
EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
POOLED DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNDOWN AS MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT...AS DECOUPLING OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE NORTHERLIES ALOFT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FROM DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL DATA DOES NOT DEPICT FOG
SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW. UPPER RIDGING AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER
NORMALS. THE MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP
LOWER MIN TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE OVER TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK EXPECTED. WEEKEND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR SOME
AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST DAY EXPECTED FROM A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ON SATURDAY. GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
MORNING CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASE OFF...BUT ABOVE
NORMALS WILL REMAIN EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS LOOSELY EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT MODEL DATA HAS YET TO COME INTO FOCUS DUE TO A
RATHER BROAD AND SHALLOW SHAPE TO THE DEVELOPING MID-WEEK UPPER
TROUGH. WILL KEEP WITH THE MORE DELAYED TIMING AND SHOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE MODEST GIVEN A DRY AIR REGIME AND THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  86  63  90  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  86  58  89  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  87  60  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  84  61  87  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  85  62  87  61 /  -    0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  85  61  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  86  57  88  57 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  86  59  90  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  86  60  87  60 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  87  64  88  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  87  62  89  60 /  -    0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 240447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO
BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF REDUCTION IN VISBYS IS
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE POOR CONFIDENCE IN MODELS. THE ABUNDANT AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT VISBYS COULD DROP TO VLIFR AGAIN BY
DAYBREAK. LOW CIGS AND VISBYS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL CONTENDING WITH DAMP
SURFACE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FOG
OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT STILL SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT. HRRR
SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG AT LEAST...THOUGH WE DO NOT SEE INDICATIONS
IN THE LATEST RAP OR WRF/NAM RUNS. STILL...HRRR HAS DONE A VERY GOOD
JOB TODAY TO THIS POINT AND WE WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. LATER IN THE
NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER ACROSS NORTH-NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WITH DIVERGENT TREND AND LESS RISK OF FOG AT THAT TIME. BETTER FOG
SIGNAL LATER TONIGHT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WE
HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD HOLD BIGGEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AND HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE
STRATUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY SHOULD BE GONE OR DISSOLVING
RAPIDLY AND A WARM DAY WILL LEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FEW LOWER 90S COULD EVEN MIX IN OFF THE CAPROCK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE BY LATE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SURFACE
TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MONDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM DAY AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THE
APPROACHING MEAN WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MODEST DEEP LAYER
COOLING WHICH SHOULD KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THE CAPROCK. AN INITIAL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TRACKING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THOUGH A ROGUE SPRINKLE OR VIRGA
SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE CLOSER BY...BUT EVEN
HERE THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND USHER IN
AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE LATE
OCTOBER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD SUPPLY A SECOND
WEAK COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  84  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  85  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  84  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  84  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  84  55  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   56  83  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  84  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  89  57  92  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  86  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  86  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KFWD 240419
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1119 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. NAM/RAP ADVERTISE A BKN035-050 DECK TOMORROW
MORNING...AND HAVE ADDED THAT LAYER TO THE TAFS, INCLUDING WACO.
IT SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING AND THEN CAVOK CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
SPREADING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAS
RESULTED IN GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE A CUMULUS CLOUD DECK HAS
DEVELOPED...WHICH MAY END UP OBSCURING SOLAR ECLIPSE VIEWING FOR
THAT AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT A
LAYER OF HIGH RH WILL REMAIN NEAR 850MB OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED CLOUDS REDEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REGARDLESS...A PLEASANT EVENING IS FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT RIDGING
DEVELOPING ALOFT AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID
80S OVER THE REGION...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND 90 FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD HIGH SATURDAY FOR DFW IS 89 AND IT LOOKS IN
REACH...BUT THE RECORD FOR WACO IS PROBABLY SAFE AT 94. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS COOLING A FEW DEGREES AS GULF MOISTURE INVADES THE REGION.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHICH MEANS CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE LIKELY SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY.
HOWEVER A SECOND...AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACKING SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION WHERE RAIN CHANCES LOOK BEST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20.
SINCE WE ARE STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL KEEP POPS AT 30 PERCENT
SOUTH OF I-20...20 PERCENT ALONG I-20...AND 10 PERCENT OVER THE NW
ZONES WHERE THE FRONTAL LAYER MAY BE TOO DEEP FOR RAIN. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...SO NO
MAJOR COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGHS MAY END UP BEING
COOLER THAN FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET
TO GO LOWER THAN THE MID 70S.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ENSURE DRY AND CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY NEXT FRIDAY AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  85  64  90  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              56  85  60  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  80  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            55  85  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          54  83  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            60  84  65  90  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           55  83  60  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         56  83  61  89  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            57  86  60  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  86  60  91  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KAMA 240354 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1054 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...AN OUTSIDE PSBLTY EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR
SUNRISE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE OR IF IT WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL. THEREFORE....HAVE OMITTED FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF GREAT SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOLLOWED BY PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LEAD US TO CALL FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH SATURDAY.  AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND INCREASES ON SUNDAY...INITIALLY
DRY FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKY IN PLACE ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  VERY WARM DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING...WITH
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER
IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHIFTING
TO NORTH LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO
RECENT WETTING RAINS AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 240354 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1054 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...AN OUTSIDE PSBLTY EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR
SUNRISE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE OR IF IT WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL. THEREFORE....HAVE OMITTED FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF GREAT SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOLLOWED BY PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LEAD US TO CALL FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH SATURDAY.  AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND INCREASES ON SUNDAY...INITIALLY
DRY FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKY IN PLACE ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  VERY WARM DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING...WITH
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER
IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHIFTING
TO NORTH LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO
RECENT WETTING RAINS AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 240354 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1054 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...AN OUTSIDE PSBLTY EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR
SUNRISE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE OR IF IT WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL. THEREFORE....HAVE OMITTED FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF GREAT SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOLLOWED BY PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LEAD US TO CALL FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH SATURDAY.  AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND INCREASES ON SUNDAY...INITIALLY
DRY FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKY IN PLACE ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  VERY WARM DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING...WITH
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER
IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHIFTING
TO NORTH LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO
RECENT WETTING RAINS AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 240354 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1054 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...AN OUTSIDE PSBLTY EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR
SUNRISE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE OR IF IT WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL. THEREFORE....HAVE OMITTED FROM THIS TAF FCST CYCLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF GREAT SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOLLOWED BY PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LEAD US TO CALL FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH SATURDAY.  AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND INCREASES ON SUNDAY...INITIALLY
DRY FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKY IN PLACE ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  VERY WARM DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING...WITH
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER
IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHIFTING
TO NORTH LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO
RECENT WETTING RAINS AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHGX 240138
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
838 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE
AREA SO SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS
IN THE 50S LOOK ON TRACK AGAIN SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TONIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP THIS WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN
THEY HAD BEEN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE MID 80S.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF SHALLOW GROUND
FOG AT OUTLYING LOCATIONS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  85  58  87  62 /  10   0  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  84  56  86  61 /  10   0  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  81  67  82  70 /  10   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39




000
FXUS64 KFWD 240009
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. NAM/RAP DEVELOP A BIT OF MOISTURE AROUND
4K FT OVERNIGHT...SO THERE MAY BE A SCT VFR CLOUD DECK FORM AFTER
SUNRISE WHEN MIXING GETS GOING. IT SHOULD COMPLETELY MIX OUT BY
LATE MORNING.  84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
SPREADING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAS
RESULTED IN GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE A CUMULUS CLOUD DECK HAS
DEVELOPED...WHICH MAY END UP OBSCURING SOLAR ECLIPSE VIEWING FOR
THAT AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT A
LAYER OF HIGH RH WILL REMAIN NEAR 850MB OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED CLOUDS REDEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REGARDLESS...A PLEASANT EVENING IS FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT RIDGING
DEVELOPING ALOFT AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID
80S OVER THE REGION...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND 90 FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD HIGH SATURDAY FOR DFW IS 89 AND IT LOOKS IN
REACH...BUT THE RECORD FOR WACO IS PROBABLY SAFE AT 94. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS COOLING A FEW DEGREES AS GULF MOISTURE INVADES THE REGION.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHICH MEANS CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE LIKELY SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY.
HOWEVER A SECOND...AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACKING SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION WHERE RAIN CHANCES LOOK BEST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20.
SINCE WE ARE STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL KEEP POPS AT 30 PERCENT
SOUTH OF I-20...20 PERCENT ALONG I-20...AND 10 PERCENT OVER THE NW
ZONES WHERE THE FRONTAL LAYER MAY BE TOO DEEP FOR RAIN. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...SO NO
MAJOR COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGHS MAY END UP BEING
COOLER THAN FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET
TO GO LOWER THAN THE MID 70S.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ENSURE DRY AND CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY NEXT FRIDAY AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  85  64  90  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              56  85  60  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  80  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            55  85  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          54  83  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            60  84  65  90  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           55  83  60  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         56  83  61  89  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            57  86  60  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  86  60  91  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KCRP 232349 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
649 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AND MAIN ISSUE IS
WHETHER KALI AND KVCT WILL SEE ANY FOG. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A
SMALL WINDOW WHERE THIS WILL HAPPEN...BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINTS
AND EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AWIPS SOUNDS ARE RATHER
DRY...BUT BUFKIT IS SAYING THAT FOG WILL FORM. AT THIS
TIME...FEELING IS THAT FOG WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND THUS HAVE
TEMPO MVFR 3SM BR AT BOTH LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND 13Z. WILL LIKELY
HAVE A SEA-BREEZE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT KCRP TERMINAL TO
GO EAST OR SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE FORECAST BUT SHOULD BE 11 KNOTS
OR LOWER. PRETTY MUCH SHORT TERMINAL FORECAST GIVEN NOT MUCH
CHANGE DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD (SIG WX NIL).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WEAK UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK...WITH DRY AIR AS SEEN ON WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY BEING USHERED IN BEHIND IT. UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR TOMORROW. WINDS WILL DROP TO VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER TOMORROW THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP US DRY AND WARM. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROF
DROPS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EVENTUALLY OUT INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP
A FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE STALLING IT OUT AS
A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
ONTARIO. GFS HAS NOW JOINED THE REST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN
KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE CWFA. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
IN EARNEST ON MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO
OUR AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  86  63  86  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          58  87  59  88  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            65  90  66  90  65  /  10   0   0   0   0
ALICE             62  88  61  90  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          65  83  65  85  66  /  10   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           63  88  63  91  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        62  86  60  89  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       68  84  67  85  66  /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KHGX 232333
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
633 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF SHALLOW GROUND
FOG AT OUTLYING LOCATIONS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  85  58  87  62 /  10   0  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  84  56  86  61 /  10   0  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  81  67  82  70 /  10   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KAMA 232329 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
629 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF GREAT SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOLLOWED BY PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LEAD US TO CALL FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH SATURDAY.  AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND INCREASES ON SUNDAY...INITIALLY
DRY FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKY IN PLACE ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  VERY WARM DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING...WITH
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER
IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHIFTING
TO NORTH LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO
RECENT WETTING RAINS AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KEWX 232326 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM ALOFT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS MOVES TO THE
EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
POOLED DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNDOWN AS MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT...AS DECOUPLING OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE NORTHERLIES ALOFT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FROM DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL DATA DOES NOT DEPICT FOG
SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW. UPPER RIDGING AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER
NORMALS. THE MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP
LOWER MIN TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE OVER TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK EXPECTED. WEEKEND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR SOME
AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST DAY EXPECTED FROM A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ON SATURDAY. GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
MORNING CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASE OFF...BUT ABOVE
NORMALS WILL REMAIN EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS LOOSELY EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT MODEL DATA HAS YET TO COME INTO FOCUS DUE TO A
RATHER BROAD AND SHALLOW SHAPE TO THE DEVELOPING MID-WEEK UPPER
TROUGH. WILL KEEP WITH THE MORE DELAYED TIMING AND SHOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE MODEST GIVEN A DRY AIR REGIME AND THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  86  63  90  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  86  58  89  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  87  60  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  84  61  87  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  85  62  87  61 /  -    0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  85  61  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  86  57  88  57 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  86  59  90  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  86  60  87  60 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  87  64  88  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  87  62  89  60 /  -    0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KSJT 232326
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Areas of patchy fog will develop across our southern terminals
overnight, resulting in MVFR visibilities. This fog may attempt to
make it into KSJT as well; but, for now it was left out of the TAF
at that location. Any fog will dissipate by 14z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Low clouds developed over the Concho Valley and I-10 corridor this
morning and have been slow to erode. A diurnal Cu field has
developed where skies have been clear and we`ve seen a few light
showers trying to develop over the northwest Hill Country near San
Saba. The mid-level trough axis is crossing the area this afternoon,
and should be to our east by this evening. This will bring rain
chances to an end and should result in mostly clear skies overnight.
The main caveat to the sky forecast is that light winds, clear
skies, and low-level moisture will allow temps to fall to near the
dewpoint, potentially creating patchy fog late tonight and early
Friday. This may morph into a low cloud deck by sunrise, mainly over
the west. Otherwise, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 50s
across most of the area tonight, with some low-lying areas and river
valleys in the lower 50s.

If any low clouds develop late tonight, they should erode by midday.
Warm and dry conditions are expected during the afternoon with south
winds generally under 10 mph. Afternoon highs are forecast to warm
into the mid 80s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)

An upper level high will shift east across Texas Friday night and
Saturday. This high will be suppressed south into the Gulf of Mexico
on Sunday, as a broad upper trough moves from the northwestern part
of the country east to the northern Rockies. Dry and warm conditions
are expected for our area Saturday through Monday, with highs
well-above normal for this point in October. South winds will
increase, especially Sunday into Monday with lee side surface trough
development and increased surface pressure gradient.

The 12Z GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with the
developments during the early to middle part of next week. The
aforementioned upper trough is progged to move east across the
northern and central Plains late Monday and Monday night, sending
a cold front south across the northern third of our area by 12Z
Tuesday. The front is progged to move south at a slower pace on
Tuesday, and should be just south of the Interstate 10 corridor
by evening.

The upper trough will lift into the upper Midwest on Tuesday, while
a weaker shortwave move east across the Southwestern states. The
front should stall just south of our area Tuesday night. With the
incoming shortwave and moisture lifting up and over the stalled
frontal boundary, the setup favors the possibility of elevated
convection across much of the southern half of our area. Some of the
GFS ensemble members show QPF, along with its 12Z operational run
and that of the 12Z ECMWF. With these indications, have added slight
chance PoPs for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The shortwave trough
should move east across our area Wednesday night, ending rain
chances. Will monitor subsequent model data and may need to adjust
or extend PoPs into Wednesday night. Temperatures will be cooler in
the wake of the frontal passage, with increased cloud cover and the
possibility for precipitation. The models indicate another cold
frontal passage possibility for Day 7 (next Thursday).

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  85  61  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  56  86  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  53  86  54  86  55 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

60/14/60








000
FXUS64 KLUB 232316
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO FOG AGAIN AT
EITHER TAF SITE BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWERED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PATCHY THAN THURSDAY MORNING LEADING TO
LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF. HOWEVER...FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY
THAN LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL CONTENDING WITH DAMP
SURFACE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FOG
OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT STILL SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT. HRRR
SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG AT LEAST...THOUGH WE DO NOT SEE INDICATIONS
IN THE LATEST RAP OR WRF/NAM RUNS. STILL...HRRR HAS DONE A VERY GOOD
JOB TODAY TO THIS POINT AND WE WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. LATER IN THE
NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER ACROSS NORTH-NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WITH DIVERGENT TREND AND LESS RISK OF FOG AT THAT TIME. BETTER FOG
SIGNAL LATER TONIGHT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WE
HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD HOLD BIGGEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AND HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE
STRATUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY SHOULD BE GONE OR DISSOLVING
RAPIDLY AND A WARM DAY WILL LEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FEW LOWER 90S COULD EVEN MIX IN OFF THE CAPROCK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE BY LATE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SURFACE
TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MONDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM DAY AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THE
APPROACHING MEAN WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MODEST DEEP LAYER
COOLING WHICH SHOULD KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THE CAPROCK. AN INITIAL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TRACKING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THOUGH A ROGUE SPRINKLE OR VIRGA
SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE CLOSER BY...BUT EVEN
HERE THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND USHER IN
AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE LATE
OCTOBER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD SUPPLY A SECOND
WEAK COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  84  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  85  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  84  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  84  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  84  55  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   56  83  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  84  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  89  57  92  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  86  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  86  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KBRO 232313
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
613 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FAVORABLE FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AMID
MODEST NORTHEAST WINDS. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT
TO SPARK A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WHICH ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST. NOT THINKING THESE ARE GOING TO AMOUNT TO MUCH SO
WILL LEAVE SILENT 10S IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

DRY AIR IS ON THE WAY WITH BRO PWAT OF 1.57 INCHES AND CRP PWAT OF
1.3 INCHES. FURTHER NORTH LIX PWAT WAS 0.36 THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE
TROUGH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND DRY AIR FILTERING IN ON NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW. 700-300MB RH FALLS
BELOW 10 PERCENT AND THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS WELL. PWATS
WILL FALL BELOW AN INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS EVENING...POPS WILL BE VIRTUALLY NIL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA
AND INTO UPPER TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS SOME SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO WENT WITH CONSENSUS BETWEEN MET AND MAV
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WORKING IN. THIS HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON
THE GOING FORECAST...PERHAPS WARMING THE VALLEY UP A DEGREE OR SO.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND LOW WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO DEGRADE NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH
AXIS DIGS ACROS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX WED AND THURS. SOME DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEX.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESS OF THE 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE A LITTLE QUICKER MOVEMENT
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH VERSUS THE GFS. ACCORDINGLY THE ECMWF
SHOWS A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH TX
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG FROPA ACROSS THE LOWER RGV WITH THIS TROUGH
AXIS WITH BOTH MODELS STALLING THE FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE AGREEMENT INDICATED BY
BOTH LONGER RANGE MODELS.

EXPECT OVERALL TEMPS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH DAY 7 DUE
TO THE IMPACT OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LIMITED MOISTURE
VALUES. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS
FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL RECEIVING ELEVATED SEAS
FROM WHATS LEFT OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE BUT AN
OVERALL DECREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST SFC FLOW
CONTINUING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL FROM 4.5 FEET CURRENTLY AT BUOY
42020 TO CLOSER TO 3 FEET BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BUILD THE
WINDS AND SEAS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE A WEAK PGF WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  83  68  85 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          66  86  65  86 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            64  86  64  87 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN              65  88  65  89 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      64  88  64  90 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  83  73  83 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/59






000
FXUS64 KMAF 232258
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
558 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds are expected
for much of the TAF period. The exception will be from 11z to 16z
Friday, where TEMPO IFR conditions are expected to develop in fog at
most terminals.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Residual low clouds from this morning`s fog have dissipated, leaving
mostly sunny conditions as cumulus has formed over and near the
Davis/Glass Mountains.  The same scenario looks to play out tomorrow
morning as light winds, a weak pressure gradient, and overnight
clear skies will bring the potential for fog development.  Areas
affected include: parts of the Guadalupe, Davis and Glass Mountains,
Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Southeast New Mexico plains.  Will
let the shift tonight adjust patchy fog wording accordingly.

Today will be the start of a gradual warming trend, which will
extend through the weekend as an upper ridge/high pressure builds
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Today, temperatures
will be around 80 degrees with slightly cooler temps in the higher
elevations.  As we move into the weekend, temperatures into the
mid/upper 80s will be present which is 10-15 degrees above normal
for this time of year.  We may warm to near record levels on
Sunday.  The record high for Midland International is 90 degrees set
in 1950.  The UA ridge will be flattened by a long wave trough
translating east through the central CONUS.  A cold front will push
through in the wake of the trough Monday night into Tuesday
morning.  It looks to be a dry frontal passage, though in the couple
days after, there could be a secondary shortwave trough passing near
or over the region.  This along with an increase in moisture from
southeasterly flow could allow for a chance of rain. Have slightly
increased PoPs over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains, but
will leave any mention of showers out for the time being.  Temps
will drop to around normal for Tuesday and remain in the mid 70s for
a couple days.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/06

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 232104
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
403 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Low clouds developed over the Concho Valley and I-10 corridor this
morning and have been slow to erode. A diurnal Cu field has
developed where skies have been clear and we`ve seen a few light
showers trying to develop over the northwest Hill Country near San
Saba. The mid-level trough axis is crossing the area this afternoon,
and should be to our east by this evening. This will bring rain
chances to an end and should result in mostly clear skies overnight.
The main caveat to the sky forecast is that light winds, clear
skies, and low-level moisture will allow temps to fall to near the
dewpoint, potentially creating patchy fog late tonight and early
Friday. This may morph into a low cloud deck by sunrise, mainly over
the west. Otherwise, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 50s
across most of the area tonight, with some low-lying areas and river
valleys in the lower 50s.

If any low clouds develop late tonight, they should erode by midday.
Warm and dry conditions are expected during the afternoon with south
winds generally under 10 mph. Afternoon highs are forecast to warm
into the mid 80s.

Johnson

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)

An upper level high will shift east across Texas Friday night and
Saturday. This high will be suppressed south into the Gulf of Mexico
on Sunday, as a broad upper trough moves from the northwestern part
of the country east to the northern Rockies. Dry and warm conditions
are expected for our area Saturday through Monday, with highs
well-above normal for this point in October. South winds will
increase, especially Sunday into Monday with lee side surface trough
development and increased surface pressure gradient.

The 12Z GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement with the
developments during the early to middle part of next week. The
aforementioned upper trough is progged to move east across the
northern and central Plains late Monday and Monday night, sending
a cold front south across the northern third of our area by 12Z
Tuesday. The front is progged to move south at a slower pace on
Tuesday, and should be just south of the Interstate 10 corridor
by evening.

The upper trough will lift into the upper Midwest on Tuesday, while
a weaker shortwave move east across the Southwestern states. The
front should stall just south of our area Tuesday night. With the
incoming shortwave and moisture lifting up and over the stalled
frontal boundary, the setup favors the possibility of elevated
convection across much of the southern half of our area. Some of the
GFS ensemble members show QPF, along with its 12Z operational run
and that of the 12Z ECMWF. With these indications, have added slight
chance PoPs for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The shortwave trough
should move east across our area Wednesday night, ending rain
chances. Will monitor subsequent model data and may need to adjust
or extend PoPs into Wednesday night. Temperatures will be cooler in
the wake of the frontal passage, with increased cloud cover and the
possibility for precipitation. The models indicate another cold
frontal passage possibility for Day 7 (next Thursday).

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  85  61  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  56  86  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Junction  53  86  54  86  55 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KAMA 232046
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES OF GREAT SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOLLOWED BY PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LEAD US TO CALL FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH SATURDAY.  AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND INCREASES ON SUNDAY...INITIALLY
DRY FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP MAINLY CLEAR SKY IN PLACE ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  VERY WARM DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING...WITH
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER
IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHIFTING
TO NORTH LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO
RECENT WETTING RAINS AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  85  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  53  89  52  90  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              51  85  49  87  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  55  87  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              51  87  51  90  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  50  86  51  87  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               54  89  56  89  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 45  86  45  87  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  49  87  49  90  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                49  86  50  87  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                51  87  52  90  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   54  85  55  87  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                52  88  54  90  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              53  87  55  92  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/03





000
FXUS64 KEWX 232045
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
345 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
POOLED DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNDOWN AS MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT...AS DECOUPLING OF LOW LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE NORTHERLIES ALOFT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FROM DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. MODEL DATA DOES NOT DEPICT FOG
SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW. UPPER RIDGING AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER
NORMALS. THE MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP
LOWER MIN TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE OVER TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK EXPECTED. WEEKEND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR SOME
AREAS...WITH THE WARMEST DAY EXPECTED FROM A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ON SATURDAY. GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AND SHOULD MAKE FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
MORNING CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE DEEPENING
MOISTURE SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASE OFF...BUT ABOVE
NORMALS WILL REMAIN EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS LOOSELY EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT MODEL DATA HAS YET TO COME INTO FOCUS DUE TO A
RATHER BROAD AND SHALLOW SHAPE TO THE DEVELOPING MID-WEEK UPPER
TROUGH. WILL KEEP WITH THE MORE DELAYED TIMING AND SHOW POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF FOR THE AMOUNT OF COOLING AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE MODEST GIVEN A DRY AIR REGIME AND THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  86  63  90  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  86  58  89  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  87  60  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  84  61  87  59 /  20   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  85  62  87  61 /  -    0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        60  85  61  89  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  86  57  88  57 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  86  59  90  60 /  20   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  86  60  87  60 /  -    0   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  87  64  88  62 /  20   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  87  62  89  60 /  -    0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KCRP 232044
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
344 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WEAK UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK...WITH DRY AIR AS SEEN ON WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY BEING USHERED IN BEHIND IT. UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR TOMORROW. WINDS WILL DROP TO VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER TOMORROW THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP US DRY AND WARM. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROF
DROPS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EVENTUALLY OUT INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP
A FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE STALLING IT OUT AS
A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AND LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
ONTARIO. GFS HAS NOW JOINED THE REST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN
KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE CWFA. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
IN EARNEST ON MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO
OUR AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  86  63  86  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          58  87  59  88  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            65  90  66  90  65  /  10   0   0   0   0
ALICE             62  88  61  90  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          65  83  65  85  66  /  10   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           63  88  63  91  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        62  86  60  89  59  /  10   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       68  84  67  85  66  /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KFWD 232037
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
SPREADING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAS
RESULTED IN GENERALLY CLEARING SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE A CUMULUS CLOUD DECK HAS
DEVELOPED...WHICH MAY END UP OBSCURING SOLAR ECLIPSE VIEWING FOR
THAT AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...BUT A
LAYER OF HIGH RH WILL REMAIN NEAR 850MB OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY
RESULT IN SCATTERED CLOUDS REDEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REGARDLESS...A PLEASANT EVENING IS FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT RIDGING
DEVELOPING ALOFT AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID
80S OVER THE REGION...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND 90 FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD HIGH SATURDAY FOR DFW IS 89 AND IT LOOKS IN
REACH...BUT THE RECORD FOR WACO IS PROBABLY SAFE AT 94. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS COOLING A FEW DEGREES AS GULF MOISTURE INVADES THE REGION.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHICH MEANS CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE LIKELY SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY.
HOWEVER A SECOND...AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACKING SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION WHERE RAIN CHANCES LOOK BEST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20.
SINCE WE ARE STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY...WILL KEEP POPS AT 30 PERCENT
SOUTH OF I-20...20 PERCENT ALONG I-20...AND 10 PERCENT OVER THE NW
ZONES WHERE THE FRONTAL LAYER MAY BE TOO DEEP FOR RAIN. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...SO NO
MAJOR COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGHS MAY END UP BEING
COOLER THAN FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET
TO GO LOWER THAN THE MID 70S.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ENSURE DRY AND CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
COOL A LITTLE MORE BY NEXT FRIDAY AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1231 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
NO MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS EFFECTS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVE INTO AR/LA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT ALL SITES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR A THIN
LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH
PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL VFR CEILING. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. 09/GP


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  85  64  90  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              56  85  60  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  80  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            55  85  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          54  83  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            60  84  65  90  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           55  83  60  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         56  83  61  89  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            57  86  60  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  86  60  91  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KHGX 232037
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
337 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
24 HOUR 5H HEIGHT RISES OF 50 TO 60 M RANGE ARE INDICATIVE OF AN
EVOLVING DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER RIDGE PATTERN. MODEL CONSENSUS
PROGS THIS RIDGE TO AMPLIFY WITH ITS AXIS ORIENTED OVER WESTERN
TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BREAKING DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN WILL SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS OVER THIS LAST WEEKEND OF
OCTOBER...VEERING THIS LATE WEEK NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING
FLOW TO ONSHORE SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUSH IN A LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIER AIR MASS THAT WILL KEEP
SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND LOWER DEW POINTS/%RHS. PLENTY OF SUN...WARMING
AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN 80-85F WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
AS %RH`S BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S...WILL MAKE FRIDAY THE BEST WEATHER
DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MANY.

WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER. AS UPPER
RIDGING FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTERN MOVEMENT OF A
DEEPENING ROCKY MOUNTAIN TROUGH...MID-UPPER FLOW SHOULD VEER A BIT
MORE WESTERLY AND BUMP 85H TEMPS UP TO AROUND 16-17 DEG C. A
VARIABLE TO WEAK LL ONSHORE BREEZE WITH PARTIALLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL AFFORD MANY MAXING OUT IN THE AVERAGE MIDDLE 80S. MORE
SUN...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY COULD PUSH AFTERNOON
READINGS TO NEAR 90F AND COME WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF RECORD
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES (THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND FOR NEARLY 65 YEARS IN
THE CITY). SUNDAY WILL BE NEARLY AS WARM...BUT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON EXTREME NUMBERS PER MAYBE MORE CLOUD COVER OR A BETTER
PRONOUNCED ONSHORE WIND.

NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST WILL BE MORE CHALLENGING AS RAIN CHANCES COME
BACK INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS TIME AROUND OF MID-WEEK TROUGH
PASSAGE/FROPA. BOTH SLOWLY ADVANCE A SURFACE BOUNDARY (OR PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH) INTO NORTHERN TEXAS LATE WED/EARLY THU WHILE
PERSISTENT RETURN FLOW PUMPS UP DOWNSTREAM PWS TO NEAR 1.5 OR 1.6
INCHES. NO APPARENT S/W TO TRIGGER MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER SE TX
WEDNESDAY...MAYBE JUST SCATTERED NORTHERN CWA SHOWERS ALONG WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE DOWNSTREAM LL WIND SHIFT. THE
MID-WEEK ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE (8-85H CAP)AND NOT QUITE
MOIST ENOUGH TO WARRANT NO MORE THAT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS. U.S. MIDWEST ENERGY DIVING INTO THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY
IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST THURSDAY...MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTHERLIES IN ITS WAKE MID TO LATE THURSDAY. THE HALLOWEEN
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE QUITE BREEZY AND DRY. 31

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE INTO SE TX THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT N-NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY AND SFC WINDS WILL VEER
TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN.
AN SCEC MAY BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES NEXT WEDS/THURS.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  85  58  87  62 /  10   0  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  84  56  86  61 /  10   0  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  81  67  82  70 /  10   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43




000
FXUS64 KBRO 232018
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
318 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH ENOUGH SYNOPTIC LIFT
TO SPARK A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WHICH ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST. NOT THINKING THESE ARE GOING TO AMOUNT TO MUCH SO
WILL LEAVE SILENT 10S IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

DRY AIR IS ON THE WAY WITH BRO PWAT OF 1.57 INCHES AND CRP PWAT OF
1.3 INCHES. FURTHER NORTH LIX PWAT WAS 0.36 THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE
TROUGH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND DRY AIR FILTERING IN ON NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW. 700-300MB RH FALLS
BELOW 10 PERCENT AND THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS WELL. PWATS
WILL FALL BELOW AN INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS EVENING...POPS WILL BE VIRTUALLY NIL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA
AND INTO UPPER TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS SOME SHALLOW PATCHY
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO WENT WITH CONSENSUS BETWEEN MET AND MAV
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WORKING IN. THIS HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON
THE GOING FORECAST...PERHAPS WARMING THE VALLEY UP A DEGREE OR SO.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND LOW WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND NORTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO DEGRADE NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH
AXIS DIGS ACROS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX WED AND THURS. SOME DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURS OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEX.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESS OF THE 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE A LITTLE QUICKER MOVEMENT
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH VERSUS THE GFS. ACCORDINGLY THE ECMWF
SHOWS A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH TX
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEITHER MODEL SHOWS MUCH
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG FROPA ACROSS THE LOWER RGV WITH THIS TROUGH
AXIS WITH BOTH MODELS STALLING THE FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE AGREEMENT INDICATED BY
BOTH LONGER RANGE MODELS.

EXPECT OVERALL TEMPS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH DAY 7 DUE
TO THE IMPACT OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LIMITED MOISTURE
VALUES. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TEMPS
FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STILL RECEIVING ELEVATED SEAS
FROM WHATS LEFT OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE BUT AN
OVERALL DECREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST SFC FLOW
CONTINUING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL FROM 4.5 FEET CURRENTLY AT BUOY
42020 TO CLOSER TO 3 FEET BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BUILD THE
WINDS AND SEAS CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE A WEAK PGF WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  83  68  85 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          66  86  65  86 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            64  86  64  87 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN              65  88  65  89 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      64  88  64  90 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  83  73  83 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65






000
FXUS64 KLUB 232010
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL CONTENDING WITH DAMP
SURFACE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FOG
OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT STILL SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT. HRRR
SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG AT LEAST...THOUGH WE DO NOT SEE INDICATIONS
IN THE LATEST RAP OR WRF/NAM RUNS. STILL...HRRR HAS DONE A VERY GOOD
JOB TODAY TO THIS POINT AND WE WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. LATER IN THE
NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER ACROSS NORTH-NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WITH DIVERGENT TREND AND LESS RISK OF FOG AT THAT TIME. BETTER FOG
SIGNAL LATER TONIGHT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WE
HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD HOLD BIGGEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AND HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE
STRATUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY SHOULD BE GONE OR DISSOLVING
RAPIDLY AND A WARM DAY WILL LEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FEW LOWER 90S COULD EVEN MIX IN OFF THE CAPROCK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE BY LATE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SURFACE
TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MONDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM DAY AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THE
APPROACHING MEAN WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MODEST DEEP LAYER
COOLING WHICH SHOULD KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THE CAPROCK. AN INITIAL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TRACKING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THOUGH A ROGUE SPRINKLE OR VIRGA
SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE CLOSER BY...BUT EVEN
HERE THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND USHER IN
AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE LATE
OCTOBER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD SUPPLY A SECOND
WEAK COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  84  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  85  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  84  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  84  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  84  55  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   56  83  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  84  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  89  57  92  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  86  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  86  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23






000
FXUS64 KMAF 231946
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
246 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Residual low clouds from this morning`s fog have dissipated, leaving
mostly sunny conditions as cumulus has formed over and near the
Davis/Glass Mountains.  The same scenario looks to play out tomorrow
morning as light winds, a weak pressure gradient, and overnight
clear skies will bring the potential for fog development.  Areas
affected include: parts of the Guadalupe, Davis and Glass Mountains,
Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Southeast New Mexico plains.  Will
let the shift tonight adjust patchy fog wording accordingly.

Today will be the start of a gradual warming trend, which will
extend through the weekend as an upper ridge/high pressure builds
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Today, temperatures
will be around 80 degrees with slightly cooler temps in the higher
elevations.  As we move into the weekend, temperatures into the
mid/upper 80s will be present which is 10-15 degrees above normal
for this time of year.  We may warm to near record levels on
Sunday.  The record high for Midland International is 90 degrees set
in 1950.  The UA ridge will be flattened by a long wave trough
translating east through the central CONUS.  A cold front will push
through in the wake of the trough Monday night into Tuesday
morning.  It looks to be a dry frontal passage, though in the couple
days after, there could be a secondary shortwave trough passing near
or over the region.  This along with an increase in moisture from
southeasterly flow could allow for a chance of rain. Have slightly
increased PoPs over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains, but
will leave any mention of showers out for the time being.  Temps
will drop to around normal for Tuesday and remain in the mid 70s for
a couple days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  83  52  85  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              59  86  59  87  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                51  83  53  85  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  86  56  87  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  85  56  87  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  78  56  81  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   52  82  52  84  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   47  78  41  80  /   0  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  85  56  86  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  58  85  56  86  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    57  87  54  89  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/06

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 231946
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
246 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Residual low clouds from this morning`s fog have dissipated, leaving
mostly sunny conditions as cumulus has formed over and near the
Davis/Glass Mountains.  The same scenario looks to play out tomorrow
morning as light winds, a weak pressure gradient, and overnight
clear skies will bring the potential for fog development.  Areas
affected include: parts of the Guadalupe, Davis and Glass Mountains,
Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Southeast New Mexico plains.  Will
let the shift tonight adjust patchy fog wording accordingly.

Today will be the start of a gradual warming trend, which will
extend through the weekend as an upper ridge/high pressure builds
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Today, temperatures
will be around 80 degrees with slightly cooler temps in the higher
elevations.  As we move into the weekend, temperatures into the
mid/upper 80s will be present which is 10-15 degrees above normal
for this time of year.  We may warm to near record levels on
Sunday.  The record high for Midland International is 90 degrees set
in 1950.  The UA ridge will be flattened by a long wave trough
translating east through the central CONUS.  A cold front will push
through in the wake of the trough Monday night into Tuesday
morning.  It looks to be a dry frontal passage, though in the couple
days after, there could be a secondary shortwave trough passing near
or over the region.  This along with an increase in moisture from
southeasterly flow could allow for a chance of rain. Have slightly
increased PoPs over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains, but
will leave any mention of showers out for the time being.  Temps
will drop to around normal for Tuesday and remain in the mid 70s for
a couple days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  83  52  85  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              59  86  59  87  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                51  83  53  85  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  86  56  87  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  85  56  87  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  78  56  81  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   52  82  52  84  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   47  78  41  80  /   0  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  85  56  86  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  58  85  56  86  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    57  87  54  89  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/06

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 231931
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
131 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM DRY
WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES LATER MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE A SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH COVERING NEW MEXICO.
ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMBINE WITH BRING
DRY SUNNY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL MEANWHILE ENTER
THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF TROUGH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY GRADIENTS ALOFT. ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPE FLOW
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL ALSO GENERATE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY SUNDAY WITH PRONOUNCED LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY. INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW WILL SUSTAIN TRANSPORT OF WARM DRY AIR MASS BUT WIND SPEEDS
WILL APPROACH THE BREEZY CATEGORY SUNDAY AND RANGE FROM BREEZY TO
WINDY ON MONDAY. TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PASS
THROUGH THE CWA LATER MONDAY WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY LOWERING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
LATER PERIODS. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH WINDS
AGAIN BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z - 25/00Z...
GNLY SKC...WX NIL CAVOK. WINDS LGT VRBL UNDER 7 KTS SW-SE.
SKC-FEW250 OTHERWISE FEW050 AFTN HRS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A DRIER AND WARMER SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND SOME BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIN RH WILL RUN IN THE
45% TO 55% RANGE ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY DROPPING ABOUT 10% OVERALL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  82  56  84  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           50  79  52  79  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              50  80  52  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              49  81  51  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              37  65  40  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  79  53  79  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             48  76  49  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  46  81  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               48  81  49  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  82  58  83  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               46  81  47  81  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            54  84  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  79  54  81  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  50  83  51  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  81  54  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  80  55  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           41  81  43  81  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   46  80  48  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                52  80  53  81  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  81  55  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 43  73  46  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               39  73  43  74  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                39  71  43  73  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 44  74  48  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               48  77  52  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               47  80  49  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  75  45  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  48  78  49  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   42  81  42  80  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  80  37  79  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 49  77  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  50  83  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 45  81  48  82  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  84  48  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              49  83  52  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN





000
FXUS64 KLUB 231746
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1246 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
LARGE PATCH OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS SLOWLY ERODING BUT LIKELY TO PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
FOR MANY AREAS. WE UPDATED EARLIER IN THE SHIFT ALREADY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATE EROSION. BELIEVE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB QUICKLY
ONCE THE CLOUDS ERODE SO CHOSE NOT TO UPDATE MAXIMUMS FOR TODAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATUS TRENDS WITH IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN PRIMARY
ISSUE. SLOW EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER KLBB ALTHOUGH THESE
FINALLY SHOULD DISSOLVE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR THE MOST PART.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING EARLY TONIGHT MAY
LEAD TO EARLY VISIBILITY DROP OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF KLBB BEFORE SURFACE FLOW VEERS AND DRIES SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. BEST STRATUS SIGNALS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TONIGHT ARE IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS SOUTH OF KCDS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THAT
RESTRICTIONS MAY EXTEND NORTH INTO KCDS OR WEST TO KLBB. WE WILL
INDICATE ONLY A MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT KCDS TONIGHT FOR
NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
KLBB IS MORE OR LESS AN ISLAND SURROUNDED BY IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS EVIDENT LESS THAN 15 NM SW OF
THE TERMINAL. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
TERMINAL THOUGH TIMING HAS BEEN QUITE ELUSIVE. KCDS IS CURRENTLY
BELOW MINIMUMS. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.  FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS AT BOTH SITES AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AS A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
OVERALL...THINGS ARE SETTLING DOWN TO BE TRANQUIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRATUS DECK WHICH CAME IN LAST EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY SCATTER OUT
LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND FAIR SKIES WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ISSUES.

LONG TERM...
THE EXITING OF THE UA TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE FA YESTERDAY...WILL MAKE WAY FOR AN UA RIDGE THAT WILL DRIFT
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THRU THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS PROMOTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH S-SW SFC WINDS WILL SET US UP FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S /OR SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORM/.

BY SUNDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SKIRT EAST OF THE
REGION...COURTESY OF A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING
NEARBY SFC TROUGH THUS PROMOTING BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PER THE GFS. WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRECIP IS ALSO DEPICTED TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PHASE WITH THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...WHILST TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE DISTURBANCE LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCE DEPICTED BY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INHERITED
/NONMENTIONABLE/ POPS OF 10-15 PERCENT APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM. WHAT
IS AGREED UPON HOWEVER IS THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BACK BELOW NORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK /60S AND 70S/ AND EITHER AID IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT /PER THE ECMWF/ OR KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA /PER THE GFS/.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COOL
PATTERN WILL ENSUE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE /PER
THE GFS/ OR FLATTENED UA RIDGING GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS /PER THE ECMWF/. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION
WILL COME INTO FRUITION. THE INHERITED FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
COOLER SOLUTION /HIGHS TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND 70S/ AND
HENCE...WILL HOLD ON TO THIS THOUGHT PROCESS AND AWAIT MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  82  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         51  84  52  84  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  83  53  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  83  54  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  84  56  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  82  55  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  84  55  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  89  57  89  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  86  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  86  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05






000
FXUS64 KLUB 231746
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1246 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
LARGE PATCH OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS SLOWLY ERODING BUT LIKELY TO PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
FOR MANY AREAS. WE UPDATED EARLIER IN THE SHIFT ALREADY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATE EROSION. BELIEVE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB QUICKLY
ONCE THE CLOUDS ERODE SO CHOSE NOT TO UPDATE MAXIMUMS FOR TODAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATUS TRENDS WITH IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN PRIMARY
ISSUE. SLOW EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER KLBB ALTHOUGH THESE
FINALLY SHOULD DISSOLVE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR THE MOST PART.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING EARLY TONIGHT MAY
LEAD TO EARLY VISIBILITY DROP OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF KLBB BEFORE SURFACE FLOW VEERS AND DRIES SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. BEST STRATUS SIGNALS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TONIGHT ARE IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS SOUTH OF KCDS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THAT
RESTRICTIONS MAY EXTEND NORTH INTO KCDS OR WEST TO KLBB. WE WILL
INDICATE ONLY A MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT KCDS TONIGHT FOR
NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
KLBB IS MORE OR LESS AN ISLAND SURROUNDED BY IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS EVIDENT LESS THAN 15 NM SW OF
THE TERMINAL. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
TERMINAL THOUGH TIMING HAS BEEN QUITE ELUSIVE. KCDS IS CURRENTLY
BELOW MINIMUMS. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.  FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS AT BOTH SITES AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AS A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
OVERALL...THINGS ARE SETTLING DOWN TO BE TRANQUIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRATUS DECK WHICH CAME IN LAST EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY SCATTER OUT
LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND FAIR SKIES WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ISSUES.

LONG TERM...
THE EXITING OF THE UA TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE FA YESTERDAY...WILL MAKE WAY FOR AN UA RIDGE THAT WILL DRIFT
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THRU THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS PROMOTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH S-SW SFC WINDS WILL SET US UP FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S /OR SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORM/.

BY SUNDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SKIRT EAST OF THE
REGION...COURTESY OF A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING
NEARBY SFC TROUGH THUS PROMOTING BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PER THE GFS. WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRECIP IS ALSO DEPICTED TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PHASE WITH THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...WHILST TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE DISTURBANCE LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCE DEPICTED BY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INHERITED
/NONMENTIONABLE/ POPS OF 10-15 PERCENT APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM. WHAT
IS AGREED UPON HOWEVER IS THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BACK BELOW NORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK /60S AND 70S/ AND EITHER AID IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT /PER THE ECMWF/ OR KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA /PER THE GFS/.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COOL
PATTERN WILL ENSUE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE /PER
THE GFS/ OR FLATTENED UA RIDGING GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS /PER THE ECMWF/. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION
WILL COME INTO FRUITION. THE INHERITED FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
COOLER SOLUTION /HIGHS TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND 70S/ AND
HENCE...WILL HOLD ON TO THIS THOUGHT PROCESS AND AWAIT MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  82  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         51  84  52  84  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  83  53  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  83  54  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  84  56  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  82  55  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  84  55  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  89  57  89  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  86  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  86  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 231743 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1243 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

KNS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES...WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE IN A FEW PLACES. COULD
SEE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH BY SUNRISE.

NF

AVIATION...
DENSE FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO LIFR OR VLIFR AT TIMES THIS
MORNING AT KDHT AND KGUY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
UNTIL THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIFT.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A CLEARING TREND
TODAY AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
RISES WILL OCCUR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH (BY AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES) WILL BE
THE RESULT OF THIS ANOMALOUS RIDGE THIS WEEKEND AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH. SOME CIRRUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SHORTWAVE BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND FORCING WILL BE MEAGER. ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL LIMIT PRE-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TO AREAS FURTHER EAST IN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE
SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION...A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF MOISTURE MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN ALSO
DEPICTING A DEEPER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
JUST ENOUGH FOR MENTION IN THE WX GRIDS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH PRE AND POST FRONTAL MAY END UP BEING THE
GREATEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 231743 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1243 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

KNS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES...WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE IN A FEW PLACES. COULD
SEE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH BY SUNRISE.

NF

AVIATION...
DENSE FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO LIFR OR VLIFR AT TIMES THIS
MORNING AT KDHT AND KGUY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
UNTIL THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIFT.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A CLEARING TREND
TODAY AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
RISES WILL OCCUR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH (BY AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES) WILL BE
THE RESULT OF THIS ANOMALOUS RIDGE THIS WEEKEND AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH. SOME CIRRUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SHORTWAVE BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND FORCING WILL BE MEAGER. ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL LIMIT PRE-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TO AREAS FURTHER EAST IN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE
SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION...A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF MOISTURE MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN ALSO
DEPICTING A DEEPER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
JUST ENOUGH FOR MENTION IN THE WX GRIDS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH PRE AND POST FRONTAL MAY END UP BEING THE
GREATEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KCRP 231739
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1239 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUD DECK SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEARING THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF BR EXISTS FOR KALI AND KVCT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT EXPECT AIR WILL BE GENERALLY TOO
DRY FOR ANY FORMATION. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  84  59  86  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
VICTORIA          59  86  57  90  59  /  10  10   0   0   0
LAREDO            65  88  66  90  65  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             62  86  60  90  59  /  10  10   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          65  82  63  85  66  /  10  10   0   0   0
COTULLA           63  89  62  91  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        62  86  59  89  59  /  10  10   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       68  82  66  85  66  /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 231739
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1239 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUD DECK SCATTERED TO BROKEN
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEARING THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF BR EXISTS FOR KALI AND KVCT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT EXPECT AIR WILL BE GENERALLY TOO
DRY FOR ANY FORMATION. VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  84  59  86  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
VICTORIA          59  86  57  90  59  /  10  10   0   0   0
LAREDO            65  88  66  90  65  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             62  86  60  90  59  /  10  10   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          65  82  63  85  66  /  10  10   0   0   0
COTULLA           63  89  62  91  60  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        62  86  59  89  59  /  10  10   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       68  82  66  85  66  /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KFWD 231731 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1231 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS EFFECTS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVE INTO AR/LA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT ALL SITES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR A THIN
LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 5-6 KFT TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH
PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL VFR CEILING. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS. 09/GP

&&

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF MORNING RAINFALL OVER THE EAST. OTHERWISE CLEARING
SKIES WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NORTH
TEXAS...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY UNINTERRUPTED VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.  SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED WE WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. ONLY
TRACE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE
RAINFALL. THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN SINCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST THERE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
AT BEST BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF TEXAS BY MIDDAY AND TAKE THE RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS WITH IT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE LOST TO MORNING CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION SATURDAY. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND TRANSLATE EAST
AND STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE WEST. THIS UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS TEXAS AND DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MONDAY WILL BE
HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...SOME LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL INITIALLY BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
FINISH OUT OCTOBER. HOWEVER...THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  60  85  65  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              81  54  85  58  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  53  80  59  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            82  56  86  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          79  54  83  58  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            80  61  86  65  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           79  55  82  59  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         79  56  87  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            79  57  87  57  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  87  59  89 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

09/






000
FXUS64 KBRO 231730
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL HANG IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT
AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT HRL AND MFE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND EXCLUDED FROM THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER DEEP S
TX. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY BUT SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS COULD HELP PRODUCE A FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS BUT EVERYTHING WILL REMAIN VFR LEVEL WITH
WINDS NO MORE THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA LIMITING ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN
DRIER AIR WITH A NE FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT THE MID LEVELS WILL
KEEP CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SUNSHINE WILL
REACH THE GROUND ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

TONIGHT...THE LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER RANCHLAND ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281. AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID LOW
60S ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA BUT SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN THE MID LEVELS AND COULD
DEVELOP FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...THE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD SATURDAY ACROSS TEXAS. A 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST TX TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. MOVES EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST TX WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TX. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...REMNANT LOW FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SHEAR
OUT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST FRIDAY. ITS INFLUENCE ON WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW RESULTING IN THE
REDUCTION OF WINDS AND SEAS. THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH NO SCA OR SCEC EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH SE FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55






000
FXUS64 KEWX 231725 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1225 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATE...PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE AREA. SCT TO BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
AND BKN TO OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE WEST. ALL
TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOULD SEE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE
EASTERLY AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS. AFTER 01Z LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. BY 24/16Z WILL SEE E/SE WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z AND WE
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR AT KAUS WITH TEMPO IFR AT KDRT. WE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 15Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED
AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY.
VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWEST CLOUD BASES AROUND 5-6K AGL
THROUGH MID-EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST THIS MORNING ENDING THE
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY DUE TO LINGERING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND THEN WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY UNDER
AMPLE SUNSHINE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS SATURDAY AND THEN FLATTENS SUNDAY
WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS.
WELL ABOVE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND
90. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PLAINS FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. THE
FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
DEVELOPS ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM DO NOT. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY
FOR WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...THERE IS NOT A CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  87  63  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  87  57  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  60  88  60  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  60  85  60  87 /  10  -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           83  62  86  62  86 /  10  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  60  87  61  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  88  57  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  59  87  59  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  58  87  60  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  63  88  64  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  89  62  89 /  10  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KSJT 231724
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1223 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Low stratus developed this morning, mainly along the west of a
line from KSWW, to KSJT, to KSOA. These low clouds will continue
to erode over the next 1-2 hours, resulting in prevailing VFR
conditions through the afternoon and most of the overnight period.
As winds go light overnight, patchy fog may develop, resulting in
visibilities of 3-5 miles at the southern terminals. Otherwise,
expect south winds at 10 kts or less.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level trough has moved east of the forecast area early
this morning as have associated rainfall and cloud cover.
Northwest flow aloft will continue through tonight in the wake of
the departing upper trough, as an upper high builds in from the
west. Under mostly sunny skies, the afternoon highs today will be
in the upper 70s to the lower 80s and morning lows tomorrow under
mostly clear skies will be in the mid 50s to the around 60
degrees.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Thursday)

An upper level ridge will build across the Plains through Saturday
and will move east of the area by Sunday. Southwest flow aloft
develops across the Plains Sunday into Monday as an upper level
trough works its way east across the Rockies. We`ll see dry
weather with above normal temperatures Friday through Monday. As
the trough enters the Plains early next week, a cold front will
move south across the area by next Tuesday. Forecast confidence
decreases beyond Tuesday as the medium range models continue to
disagree with the upper pattern. The ECMWF has zonal flow aloft
developing behind the departing upper trough by midweek, while the
GFS maintains upper troughing across the mid section of the
country. Lack of model consistency will preclude mentioning POPs
next week and will maintain a dry forecast at this time. Expect
cooler temperatures behind the front by mid week, with
temperatures returning to near normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  59  85  61  87 /   5   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  80  57  85  58  87 /   5   0   0   0   0
Junction  82  52  86  57  86 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KMAF 231713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Fog has lifted across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin
late this morning, while IFR ceilings lingered over all but KMAF.
Will include IFR ceilings at KCNM, KHOB and KPEQ until 23/19Z as
low clouds should mix out more rapidly as heating continues.
Thereafter, expect VFR conditions to prevail areawide through this
afternoon and most of tonight.  There are some indications fog may
form again late tonight and Friday morning.  Since this will be near
the end of the forecast period will hold off introducing any lower
visibility/ ceilings due to fog.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 231706
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1206 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF MORNING RAINFALL OVER THE EAST. OTHERWISE CLEARING
SKIES WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NORTH
TEXAS...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY UNINTERRUPTED VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 612 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED MOSTLY EAST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN AREA
TAFS. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.  SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED WE WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. ONLY
TRACE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE
RAINFALL. THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN SINCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST THERE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
AT BEST BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF TEXAS BY MIDDAY AND TAKE THE RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS WITH IT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE LOST TO MORNING CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION SATURDAY. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND TRANSLATE EAST
AND STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE WEST. THIS UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS TEXAS AND DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MONDAY WILL BE
HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...SOME LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL INITIALLY BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
FINISH OUT OCTOBER. HOWEVER...THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  60  85  65  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              81  54  85  58  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  53  80  59  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            82  56  86  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          79  54  83  58  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            80  61  86  65  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           79  55  82  59  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         79  56  87  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            79  57  87  57  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  87  59  89 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /










000
FXUS64 KFWD 231706
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1206 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF MORNING RAINFALL OVER THE EAST. OTHERWISE CLEARING
SKIES WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER NORTH
TEXAS...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY UNINTERRUPTED VIEWING OF THE PARTIAL
SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 612 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED MOSTLY EAST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN AREA
TAFS. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.  SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED WE WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. ONLY
TRACE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE
RAINFALL. THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN SINCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST THERE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
AT BEST BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF TEXAS BY MIDDAY AND TAKE THE RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS WITH IT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE LOST TO MORNING CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION SATURDAY. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND TRANSLATE EAST
AND STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE WEST. THIS UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS TEXAS AND DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MONDAY WILL BE
HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...SOME LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL INITIALLY BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
FINISH OUT OCTOBER. HOWEVER...THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  60  85  65  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              81  54  85  58  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  53  80  59  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            82  56  86  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          79  54  83  58  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            80  61  86  65  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           79  55  82  59  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         79  56  87  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            79  57  87  57  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  87  59  89 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /










000
FXUS64 KHGX 231703
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1203 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED BETWEEN 00-03Z. NAM 12 KEEPS SOME CLOUDS AROUND
THROUGH 18Z NEAR KCLL. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT
THE USUAL SITES EARLY FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND VARY BETWEEN E-NE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
THE EARLY MORNING PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE GENERATED
A THICK WIDESPREAD STRATO-CU DECK TO KEEP NORTHERN COUNTY MINIMUMS
IN THE RELATIVELY WARMER LOW TO MID 60S. FURTHER SOUTH...UNDER
MORE CLEAR SKIES...READINGS WERE IN THE AVERAGE UPPER 50S. SPITS
FROM THIS CLOUD DECK ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF WHAT WAS SENSED WAS
VIRGA. YESTERDAY`S 21/12Z NAM12 SOUNDINGS DID A GOOD JOB PROGGING
THIS EARLY DAY MID-LEVEL DECK SO STICKING WITH ITS NEAR TERM SOLUTION
OF SCATTERING OUT TO MAINLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR A DECREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
..NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW PULLS IN A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY AIR MASS.
WESTERN UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING EASTWARD HAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR
THE WEEKEND. AVERAGE MX/MN TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 80S/MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  58  85  58  86 /  10  10   0  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  55  84  56  85 /  10  10   0  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  65  81  67  79 /  10  10   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 231703
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1203 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED BETWEEN 00-03Z. NAM 12 KEEPS SOME CLOUDS AROUND
THROUGH 18Z NEAR KCLL. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT
THE USUAL SITES EARLY FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND VARY BETWEEN E-NE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
THE EARLY MORNING PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE GENERATED
A THICK WIDESPREAD STRATO-CU DECK TO KEEP NORTHERN COUNTY MINIMUMS
IN THE RELATIVELY WARMER LOW TO MID 60S. FURTHER SOUTH...UNDER
MORE CLEAR SKIES...READINGS WERE IN THE AVERAGE UPPER 50S. SPITS
FROM THIS CLOUD DECK ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF WHAT WAS SENSED WAS
VIRGA. YESTERDAY`S 21/12Z NAM12 SOUNDINGS DID A GOOD JOB PROGGING
THIS EARLY DAY MID-LEVEL DECK SO STICKING WITH ITS NEAR TERM SOLUTION
OF SCATTERING OUT TO MAINLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR A DECREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
..NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW PULLS IN A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY AIR MASS.
WESTERN UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING EASTWARD HAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR
THE WEEKEND. AVERAGE MX/MN TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 80S/MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  58  85  58  86 /  10  10   0  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  55  84  56  85 /  10  10   0  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  65  81  67  79 /  10  10   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 231605
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1105 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to allow the Dense Fog Advisory expire.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fog is still lingering in and near Hobbs, Seminole and Andrews at
23/16Z.  However, satellite imagery indicated low clouds were
dissipating and allowing for surface temperatures to warm.
Therefore, expect visibilities to improve in areas still experiencing
fog, rapidly in some cases, through noon CDT.  Therefore, will
allow the Dense Fog Advisory to expire.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to extend the Dense Fog Advisory until 23/16Z.

DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery and the latest surface observations indicate dense
fog is persisting over the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico
plains, Upper Trans Pecos and a good deal of the Permian basin.
Therefore, will extend the Dense Fog Advisory until 23/16Z, at which
time some improvement should occur.  Update will follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to add additional counties to the Dense Fog Advisory.

DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery is indicating fog across portions of the Upper
trans Pecos at 23/13Z, in addition to portions of the southern
Permian Basin.  Despite the Dense Fog Advisory only being in affect
until 23/15Z, will add the above locations to the Advisory since
observations are indicating 1/4 mile or less.  Think we should begin
to receive enough heating by then for visibility to improve/fog to
lift.  An update will follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Dense fog has developed across portions of the area this morning.

DISCUSSION...

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for southeastern New Mexico
as well as portions of the Permian Basin until 15Z this morning.
Observations indicate visibility reductions to one quarter mile in
the advisory area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 231517
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1017 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE EARLY MORNING PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE GENERATED
A THICK WIDESPREAD STRATO-CU DECK TO KEEP NORTHERN COUNTY MINIMUMS
IN THE RELATIVELY WARMER LOW TO MID 60S. FURTHER SOUTH...UNDER
MORE CLEAR SKIES...READINGS WERE IN THE AVERAGE UPPER 50S. SPITS
FROM THIS CLOUD DECK ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF WHAT WAS SENSED WAS
VIRGA. YESTERDAY`S 21/12Z NAM12 SOUNDINGS DID A GOOD JOB PROGGING
THIS EARLY DAY MID-LEVEL DECK SO STICKING WITH ITS NEAR TERM SOLUTION
OF SCATTERING OUT TO MAINLY CLEAR BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR A DECREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
...NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW PULLS IN A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY AIR MASS.
WESTERN UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING EASTWARD HAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR
THE WEEKEND. AVERAGE MX/MN TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 80S/MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED AT A FEW OF THE STATIONS UNDER
THE SERPENTINE RADAR BAND STRETCHING FROM EWX INTO THE NWRN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS DZ WILL LIKELY
LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF OUR FCST ATTM. OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES
WITH THE FCST THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS MILD/ DRY AIR MASS
OVER THE REGION NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFY UNTIL LATE
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS. WARMER TEMPS/SLOWLY
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING AOA SUN THRU THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. HAVE OPTED TO
WITH SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE FASTER ECMWF AND THE SLOWER GFS FOR
NOW. 41

&&

AVIATION...
VFR. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT UTS/CXO/LBX THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
BE MINOR IMPACTS. UPPER SPEED MAX (90KTS) CAN BE TRACKED FROM AROUND
JCT TO GGG AND APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING WEAK LIFT FROM NEAR SAT TO
CLL WITH SOME SPRINKLES/-RA/DZ BUT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY
BACK NEAR SAT. DON`T EXPECT ANY PRECIP OF SIGNIFICANCE AT CLL/IAH
AREAS BUT THIS ENTRANCE REGION WILL CERTAINLY AID THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN BECOMING
A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WHAT IS
LEFT OF IT MAY REACH THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. 45

&&

MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY THOUGH ONLY IN THE 10-15
KNOTS RANGE...SEAS ALSO LOWER AT 2-4 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS SETX/LA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
NEW ORLEANS WHICH IN TURNS SWINGS WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SCECS MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WORKS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY SLOW OR
STALL IN SETX BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD THE WINDS BACK
TO THE EAST. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      81  58  85  58  86 /  10  10   0  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              81  55  84  56  85 /  10  10   0  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  65  81  67  79 /  10  10   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31




000
FXUS64 KMAF 231443
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
943 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to extend the Dense Fog Advisory until 23/16Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery and the latest surface observations indicate dense
fog is persisting over the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico
plains, Upper Trans Pecos and a good deal of the Permian basin.
Therefore, will extend the Dense Fog Advisory until 23/16Z, at which
time some improvement should occur.  Update will follow shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to add additional counties to the Dense Fog Advisory.

DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery is indicating fog across portions of the Upper
trans Pecos at 23/13Z, in addition to portions of the southern
Permian Basin.  Despite the Dense Fog Advisory only being in affect
until 23/15Z, will add the above locations to the Advisory since
observations are indicating 1/4 mile or less.  Think we should begin
to receive enough heating by then for visibility to improve/fog to
lift.  An update will follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Dense fog has developed across portions of the area this morning.

DISCUSSION...

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for southeastern New Mexico
as well as portions of the Permian Basin until 15Z this morning.
Observations indicate visibility reductions to one quarter mile in
the advisory area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM MDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

44/84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231443
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
943 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to extend the Dense Fog Advisory until 23/16Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery and the latest surface observations indicate dense
fog is persisting over the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico
plains, Upper Trans Pecos and a good deal of the Permian basin.
Therefore, will extend the Dense Fog Advisory until 23/16Z, at which
time some improvement should occur.  Update will follow shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to add additional counties to the Dense Fog Advisory.

DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery is indicating fog across portions of the Upper
trans Pecos at 23/13Z, in addition to portions of the southern
Permian Basin.  Despite the Dense Fog Advisory only being in affect
until 23/15Z, will add the above locations to the Advisory since
observations are indicating 1/4 mile or less.  Think we should begin
to receive enough heating by then for visibility to improve/fog to
lift.  An update will follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Dense fog has developed across portions of the area this morning.

DISCUSSION...

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for southeastern New Mexico
as well as portions of the Permian Basin until 15Z this morning.
Observations indicate visibility reductions to one quarter mile in
the advisory area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM MDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

44/84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231329
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
829 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to add additional counties to the Dense Fog Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery is indicating fog across portions of the Upper
trans Pecos at 23/13Z, in addition to portions of the southern
Permian Basin.  Despite the Dense Fog Advisory only being in affect
until 23/15Z, will add the above locations to the Advisory since
observations are indicating 1/4 mile or less.  Think we should begin
to receive enough heating by then for visibility to improve/fog to
lift.  An update will follow shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Dense fog has developed across portions of the area this morning.

DISCUSSION...

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for southeastern New Mexico
as well as portions of the Permian Basin until 15Z this morning.
Observations indicate visibility reductions to one quarter mile in
the advisory area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

84/44

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 231213 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
713 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z AND WE
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR AT KAUS WITH TEMPO IFR AT KDRT. WE COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 15Z...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED
AND HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY.
VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWEST CLOUD BASES AROUND 5-6K AGL
THROUGH MID-EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST THIS MORNING ENDING THE
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY DUE TO LINGERING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND THEN WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY UNDER
AMPLE SUNSHINE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS SATURDAY AND THEN FLATTENS SUNDAY
WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS.
WELL ABOVE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND
90. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PLAINS FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. THE
FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
DEVELOPS ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM DO NOT. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY
FOR WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...THERE IS NOT A CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  87  63  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  87  57  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  60  88  60  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  60  85  60  87 /  10  -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           83  62  86  62  86 /  10  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  60  87  61  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  88  57  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  59  87  59  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  58  87  60  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  63  88  64  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  89  62  89 /  10  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04







000
FXUS64 KCRP 231131
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
631 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DRG LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WHICH WL END FROM WEST TO EAST DRG THE AFTN.
GENERALLY LGT NE/E SFC WIND DRG THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/GFS/NAM
STREAMLINES DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVG ACRS THE
REGION. ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CWA/MSA THIS MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN. NAM PROGS PWAT VALUES NEAR NORMAL THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. ADDED LGT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH 10 POPS TO THE
CWA/MSA WITH A TIMING CONSISTENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT.
NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC PROG AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY. THUS...EXPECT WARMER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN.
ANTICIPATE THAT WIND/SEAS WL REMAIN LESS THAN SCEC GIVEN THE
DISSIPATION OF TD NINE. EXPECT A LOWER RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY
GIVEN WEAKER WIND. NOT TOO CONFIDENT REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN CONSIDERING NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT
WHICH MAINTAINS A SIGNIFICANT SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSION...AND
CONSIDERING SREF PROBABILITIES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS. THE RIDGE
IS PROG TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS EAST ACROSS
ROCKIES WITH GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE
MIDDLE/LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS BRINGS A POWERFUL FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS TX AND THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE
THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A MUCH WEAKER FRONT SOUTH AND STALLS IT ACROSS
THE REGION. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE ECMWF DUE TO
STRONGER RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
OR NOT A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WAA WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMID FEELING AND BREEZIER
CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE DECENT
DIURNAL RANGES GIVEN LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...WITH MAX
TEMPS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES OVER MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AND LOWS
FALLING INTO MID/UPPER 50S. TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
CONTINGENT UPON POSSIBLE FROPA...BUT HAVE KEPT WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  64  84  59  86  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          85  59  86  57  90  /  10  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            86  65  88  66  90  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             85  62  86  60  90  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          81  65  82  63  85  /  10  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           86  63  89  62  91  /  10  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        85  62  86  59  89  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       81  68  82  66  85  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KBRO 231130
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER DEEP S
TX. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY BUT SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS COULD HELP PRODUCE A FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS BUT EVERYTHING WILL REMAIN VFR LEVEL WITH
WINDS NO MORE THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA LIMITING ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN
DRIER AIR WITH A NE FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT THE MID LEVELS WILL
KEEP CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SUNSHINE WILL
REACH THE GROUND ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

TONIGHT...THE LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER RANCHLAND ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281. AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID LOW
60S ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA BUT SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN THE MID LEVELS AND COULD
DEVELOP FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...THE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD SATURDAY ACROSS TEXAS. A 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST TX TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. MOVES EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST TX WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TX. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...REMNANT LOW FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SHEAR
OUT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST FRIDAY. ITS INFLUENCE ON WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW RESULTING IN THE
REDUCTION OF WINDS AND SEAS. THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH NO SCA OR SCEC EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH SE FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/60







000
FXUS64 KLUB 231121
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
KLBB IS MORE OR LESS AN ISLAND SURROUNDED BY IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS EVIDENT LESS THAN 15 NM SW OF
THE TERMINAL. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
TERMINAL THOUGH TIMING HAS BEEN QUITE ELUSIVE. KCDS IS CURRENTLY
BELOW MINIMUMS. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.  FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS AT BOTH SITES AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AS A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
OVERALL...THINGS ARE SETTLING DOWN TO BE TRANQUIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRATUS DECK WHICH CAME IN LAST EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY SCATTER OUT
LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND FAIR SKIES WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ISSUES.

LONG TERM...
THE EXITING OF THE UA TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE FA YESTERDAY...WILL MAKE WAY FOR AN UA RIDGE THAT WILL DRIFT
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THRU THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS PROMOTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH S-SW SFC WINDS WILL SET US UP FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S /OR SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORM/.

BY SUNDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SKIRT EAST OF THE
REGION...COURTESY OF A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING
NEARBY SFC TROUGH THUS PROMOTING BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PER THE GFS. WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRECIP IS ALSO DEPICTED TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PHASE WITH THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...WHILST TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE DISTURBANCE LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCE DEPICTED BY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INHERITED
/NONMENTIONABLE/ POPS OF 10-15 PERCENT APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM. WHAT
IS AGREED UPON HOWEVER IS THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BACK BELOW NORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK /60S AND 70S/ AND EITHER AID IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT /PER THE ECMWF/ OR KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA /PER THE GFS/.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COOL
PATTERN WILL ENSUE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE /PER
THE GFS/ OR FLATTENED UA RIDGING GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS /PER THE ECMWF/. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION
WILL COME INTO FRUITION. THE INHERITED FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
COOLER SOLUTION /HIGHS TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND 70S/ AND
HENCE...WILL HOLD ON TO THIS THOUGHT PROCESS AND AWAIT MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  50  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         81  51  84  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  53  83  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     79  55  83  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  56  83  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   79  55  82  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    79  56  84  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     83  57  89  57  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          82  58  86  57  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     83  59  86  59  86 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ024>044.

&&

$$

99/99/26






000
FXUS64 KFWD 231112
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
612 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
SHIFTED MOSTLY EAST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN AREA
TAFS. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.  SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED WE WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. ONLY
TRACE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE
RAINFALL. THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN SINCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST THERE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
AT BEST BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF TEXAS BY MIDDAY AND TAKE THE RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS WITH IT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE LOST TO MORNING CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION SATURDAY. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND TRANSLATE EAST
AND STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE WEST. THIS UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS TEXAS AND DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MONDAY WILL BE
HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...SOME LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL INITIALLY BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
FINISH OUT OCTOBER. HOWEVER...THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  60  85  65  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              81  54  85  58  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  53  80  59  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            82  56  86  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          79  54  83  58  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            80  61  86  65  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           79  55  82  59  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         79  56  87  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            79  57  87  57  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  87  59  89 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79






000
FXUS64 KSJT 231100
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level trough has moved east of the forecast area early this
morning as have associated rainfall and cloud cover. Northwest flow
aloft will continue through tonight in the wake of the departing
upper trough, as an upper high builds in from the west. Under mostly
sunny skies, the afternoon highs today will be in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s and morning lows tomorrow under mostly clear skies
will be in the mid 50s to the around 60 degrees.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Thursday)

An upper level ridge will build across the Plains through Saturday
and will move east of the area by Sunday. Southwest flow aloft
develops across the Plains Sunday into Monday as an upper level
trough works its way east across the Rockies. We`ll see dry
weather with above normal temperatures Friday through Monday.
As the trough enters the Plains early next week, a cold front will
move south across the area by next Tuesday. Forecast confidence
decreases beyond Tuesday as the medium range models continue to
disagree with the upper pattern. The ECMWF has zonal flow aloft
developing behind the departing upper trough by midweek, while the
GFS maintains upper troughing across the mid section of the country.
Lack of model consistency will preclude mentioning POPs next week
and will maintain a dry forecast at this time. Expect cooler
temperatures behind the front by mid week, with temperatures
returning to near normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  60  85  61  87 /   5   5   0   0   0
San Angelo  80  58  85  58  87 /  10   5   0   0   0
Junction  82  56  84  57  86 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24













000
FXUS64 KMAF 231055
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Dense fog has developed across portions of the area this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for southeastern New Mexico
as well as portions of the Permian Basin until 15Z this morning.
Observations indicate visibility reductions to one quarter mile in
the advisory area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Martin...Midland...Winkler.


&&

$$

84/44

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 231032 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
532 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES...WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE IN A FEW PLACES. COULD
SEE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH BY SUNRISE.

NF

.AVIATION...
DENSE FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO LIFR OR VLIFR AT TIMES THIS
MORNING AT KDHT AND KGUY. AMENDMENTS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
UNTIL THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIFT.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A CLEARING TREND
TODAY AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
RISES WILL OCCUR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH (BY AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES) WILL BE
THE RESULT OF THIS ANOMALOUS RIDGE THIS WEEKEND AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH. SOME CIRRUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SHORTWAVE BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND FORCING WILL BE MEAGER. ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL LIMIT PRE-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TO AREAS FURTHER EAST IN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE
SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION...A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF MOISTURE MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN ALSO
DEPICTING A DEEPER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
JUST ENOUGH FOR MENTION IN THE WX GRIDS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH PRE AND POST FRONTAL MAY END UP BEING THE
GREATEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DONLEY...
     GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

06/17






000
FXUS64 KHGX 230940
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
440 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED AT A FEW OF THE STATIONS UNDER
THE SERPENTINE RADAR BAND STRETCHING FROM EWX INTO THE NWRN POR-
TIONS OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS DZ
WILL LIKELY LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF OUR FCST ATTM. OTHERWISE NO
REAL CHANGES WITH THE FCST THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS MILD/
DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFY
UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS. WARMER
TEMPS/SLOWLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING AOA SUN THRU
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL NOT IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT.
HAVE OPTED TO WITH SOMETHING IN BETWEEN THE FASTER ECMWF AND THE
SLOWER GFS FOR NOW. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT UTS/CXO/LBX THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
BE MINOR IMPACTS. UPPER SPEED MAX (90KTS) CAN BE TRACKED FROM AROUND
JCT TO GGG AND APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING WEAK LIFT FROM NEAR SAT TO
CLL WITH SOME SPRINKLES/-RA/DZ BUT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY BACK NEAR SAT. DON`T EXPECT ANY PRECIP OF SIGNIFICANCE AT
CLL/IAH AREAS BUT THIS ENTRANCE REGION WILL CERTAINLY AID THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
AGAIN BECOMING A LITTLE MORE EASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE COLD
FRONT WHAT IS LEFT OF IT MAY REACH THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY.
45

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY THOUGH ONLY IN THE 10-15
KNOTS RANGE...SEAS ALSO LOWER AT 2-4 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS SETX/LA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NEW ORLEANS WHICH IN TURNS SWINGS WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SCECS MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WORKS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY SLOW
OR STALL IN SETX BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD THE WINDS
BACK TO THE EAST.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  62  85  62  86 /  10  10  10  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  61  83  61  85 /   0  10  10  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  70  81  70  79 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KCRP 230932
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/GFS/NAM
STREAMLINES DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVG ACRS THE
REGION. ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE CWA/MSA THIS MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN. NAM PROGS PWAT VALUES NEAR NORMAL THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. ADDED LGT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH 10 POPS TO THE
CWA/MSA WITH A TIMING CONSISTENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT.
NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC PROG AN UPPER RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY. THUS...EXPECT WARMER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN.
ANTICIPATE THAT WIND/SEAS WL REMAIN LESS THAN SCEC GIVEN THE
DISSIPATION OF TD NINE. EXPECT A LOWER RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY
GIVEN WEAKER WIND. NOT TOO CONFIDENT REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN CONSIDERING NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT
WHICH MAINTAINS A SIGNIFICANT SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSION...AND
CONSIDERING SREF PROBABILITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS. THE RIDGE
IS PROG TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS EAST ACROSS
ROCKIES WITH GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE
MIDDLE/LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS BRINGS A POWERFUL FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS TX AND THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE
THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A MUCH WEAKER FRONT SOUTH AND STALLS IT ACROSS
THE REGION. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARDS THE ECMWF DUE TO
STRONGER RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
OR NOT A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WAA WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMID FEELING AND BREEZIER
CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS. TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE DECENT
DIURNAL RANGES GIVEN LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT...WITH MAX
TEMPS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES OVER MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AND LOWS
FALLING INTO MID/UPPER 50S. TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE
CONTINGENT UPON POSSIBLE FROPA...BUT HAVE KEPT WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    83  64  84  59  86  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          85  59  86  57  90  /  10  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            86  65  88  66  90  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             85  62  86  60  90  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          81  65  82  63  85  /  10  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           86  63  89  62  91  /  10  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        85  62  86  59  89  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       81  68  82  66  85  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KMAF 230928
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 230920
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/84

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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230919
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
319 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND WARMING DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A DRY AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED. OTHER THAN A
FEW CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT NO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES YET FOR THE DESERT LOWLANDS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY LATE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AFTERNOON BREEZES TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH THIN CLOUDS EXPECTED.

THE TROUGH WILL OPEN UP AND PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST AND A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL PLACE NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL KEEP LOCAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURE WISE. LONG RANGE
MODELS PROJECT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
THAT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES FURTHER FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z - 24/12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AREA WIDE THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SKY CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM
SKC TO FEW 050 IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A DRIER AND WARMER
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIN RH
WILL RUN IN THE 45% TO 55% RANGE ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY DROPPING
ABOUT 10% OVERALL ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 79  55  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           77  50  79  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              78  50  80  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              78  49  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              63  37  66  40  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   76  52  79  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             72  48  76  49  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  78  46  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               79  48  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      79  56  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               77  46  81  47  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            80  54  84  55  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              74  52  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  80  50  83  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            78  53  81  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          77  53  80  55  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           78  41  81  43  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   77  46  80  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                78  52  80  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               77  53  81  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 68  43  73  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               70  39  73  43  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                68  39  71  43  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 73  44  74  48  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               74  48  77  52  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               77  47  80  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            73  44  75  45  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  74  48  78  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   78  42  81  42  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              75  36  80  37  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 73  49  77  50  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  81  50  83  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 80  45  81  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          81  45  84  48  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              80  49  83  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/04






000
FXUS64 KBRO 230905
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
405 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA LIMITING ANY IMPACTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN
DRIER AIR WITH A NE FLOW. THIS WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT THE MID LEVELS WILL
KEEP CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SUNSHINE WILL
REACH THE GROUND ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

TONIGHT...THE LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER RANCHLAND ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281. AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID LOW
60S ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA BUT SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE STILL REMAINS IN THE MID LEVELS AND COULD
DEVELOP FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...THE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD SATURDAY ACROSS TEXAS. A 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST TX TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. MOVES EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST TX WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TX. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...REMNANT LOW FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SHEAR
OUT INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST FRIDAY. ITS INFLUENCE ON WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND TOMORROW RESULTING IN THE
REDUCTION OF WINDS AND SEAS. THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM WITH NO SCA OR SCEC EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH SE FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  69  83  68 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          84  67  84  66 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            84  64  84  65 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN              86  65  85  65 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      87  64  87  66 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  73  83  72 /  10  10  10   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61






000
FXUS64 KSJT 230857
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
356 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level trough has moved east of the forecast area early this
morning as have associated rainfall and cloud cover. Northwest flow
aloft will continue through tonight in the wake of the departing
upper trough, as an upper high builds in from the west. Under mostly
sunny skies, the afternoon highs today will be in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s and morning lows tomorrow under mostly clear skies
will be in the mid 50s to the around 60 degrees.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Thursday)

An upper level ridge will build across the Plains through Saturday
and will move east of the area by Sunday. Southwest flow aloft
develops across the Plains Sunday into Monday as an upper level
trough works its way east across the Rockies. We`ll see dry
weather with above normal temperatures Friday through Monday.
As the trough enters the Plains early next week, a cold front will
move south across the area by next Tuesday. Forecast confidence
decreases beyond Tuesday as the medium range models continue to
disagree with the upper pattern. The ECMWF has zonal flow aloft
developing behind the departing upper trough by midweek, while the
GFS maintains upper troughing across the mid section of the country.
Lack of model consistency will preclude mentioning POPs next week
and will maintain a dry forecast at this time. Expect cooler
temperatures behind the front by mid week, with temperatures
returning to near normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  60  85  61  87 /   5   5   0   0   0
San Angelo  80  58  85  58  87 /  10   5   0   0   0
Junction  82  56  84  57  86 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

15/24











000
FXUS64 KFWD 230835
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.  SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED WE WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED. ONLY
TRACE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AT MOST LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE
RAINFALL. THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN SINCE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
THE STRONGEST THERE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
AT BEST BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF TEXAS BY MIDDAY AND TAKE THE RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDS WITH IT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST SPOTS EVEN THOUGH A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING WILL BE LOST TO MORNING CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE NATIONS MID SECTION SATURDAY. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY
LOCATIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND TRANSLATE EAST
AND STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP IN THE WEST. THIS UPPER
AIR PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS TEXAS AND DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MONDAY WILL BE
HOT AND HUMID FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION...SOME LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL INITIALLY BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
FINISH OUT OCTOBER. HOWEVER...THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAY BRING SOME
RAIN CHANCES TO NORTH TEXAS FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS AROUND THE
METROPLEX OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE
METROPLEX. -RA MAY BRIEFLY BE OBSERVED AT KAFW AND KFTW BEFORE 06Z
BUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR NEAR THE TAF SITES AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z BUT ANY RAIN
SHOULD BE BRIEF. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION PRECIP IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS. EXPECT GENERALLY BKN TO OVC SKIES DUE TO A MIX OF CLOUDS
BETWEEN 5 TO 25 KFT.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  60  85  65  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              81  54  85  58  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  53  80  59  86 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            82  56  86  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          79  54  83  58  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            80  61  86  65  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           79  55  82  59  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         79  56  87  61  89 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            79  57  87  57  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  87  59  89 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79






000
FXUS64 KEWX 230833
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
333 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST THIS MORNING ENDING THE
SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY DUE TO LINGERING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND THEN WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY UNDER
AMPLE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS SATURDAY AND THEN FLATTENS SUNDAY
WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY MONDAY. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY FOR A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS.
WELL ABOVE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHS AROUND
90. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PLAINS FORCES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. THE
FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
DEVELOPS ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM DO NOT. THIS IS DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY
FOR WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...THERE IS NOT A CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY
AMONG THE MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  62  87  63  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  87  57  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  60  88  60  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  60  85  60  87 /  10  -    0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           83  62  86  62  86 /  10  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  60  87  61  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  58  88  57  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  59  87  59  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  58  87  60  88 /  10  -    0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  63  88  64  89 /  10  -    0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  62  89  62  89 /  10  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04






000
FXUS64 KLUB 230805
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
305 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AS A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
OVERALL...THINGS ARE SETTLING DOWN TO BE TRANQUIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRATUS DECK WHICH CAME IN LAST EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY SCATTER OUT
LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND FAIR SKIES WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXITING OF THE UA TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE FA YESTERDAY...WILL MAKE WAY FOR AN UA RIDGE THAT WILL DRIFT
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THRU THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS PROMOTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH S-SW SFC WINDS WILL SET US UP FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S /OR SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORM/.

BY SUNDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SKIRT EAST OF THE
REGION...COURTESY OF A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING
NEARBY SFC TROUGH THUS PROMOTING BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PER THE GFS. WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRECIP IS ALSO DEPICTED TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PHASE WITH THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...WHILST TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE DISTURBANCE LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCE DEPICTED BY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INHERITED
/NONMENTIONABLE/ POPS OF 10-15 PERCENT APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM. WHAT
IS AGREED UPON HOWEVER IS THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BACK BELOW NORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK /60S AND 70S/ AND EITHER AID IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT /PER THE ECMWF/ OR KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA /PER THE GFS/.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COOL
PATTERN WILL ENSUE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE /PER
THE GFS/ OR FLATTENED UA RIDGING GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS /PER THE ECMWF/. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION
WILL COME INTO FRUITION. THE INHERITED FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
COOLER SOLUTION /HIGHS TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND 70S/ AND
HENCE...WILL HOLD ON TO THIS THOUGHT PROCESS AND AWAIT MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  50  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         81  51  84  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  53  83  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     79  55  83  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  56  83  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   79  55  82  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    79  56  84  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     83  57  89  57  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          82  58  86  57  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     83  59  86  59  86 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044.

&&

$$

26/29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 230805
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
305 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AS A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
OVERALL...THINGS ARE SETTLING DOWN TO BE TRANQUIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRATUS DECK WHICH CAME IN LAST EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY SCATTER OUT
LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND FAIR SKIES WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXITING OF THE UA TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE FA YESTERDAY...WILL MAKE WAY FOR AN UA RIDGE THAT WILL DRIFT
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THRU THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS PROMOTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH S-SW SFC WINDS WILL SET US UP FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S /OR SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORM/.

BY SUNDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SKIRT EAST OF THE
REGION...COURTESY OF A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING
NEARBY SFC TROUGH THUS PROMOTING BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PER THE GFS. WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRECIP IS ALSO DEPICTED TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PHASE WITH THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...WHILST TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE DISTURBANCE LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCE DEPICTED BY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INHERITED
/NONMENTIONABLE/ POPS OF 10-15 PERCENT APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM. WHAT
IS AGREED UPON HOWEVER IS THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BACK BELOW NORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK /60S AND 70S/ AND EITHER AID IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT /PER THE ECMWF/ OR KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA /PER THE GFS/.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COOL
PATTERN WILL ENSUE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE /PER
THE GFS/ OR FLATTENED UA RIDGING GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS /PER THE ECMWF/. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION
WILL COME INTO FRUITION. THE INHERITED FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
COOLER SOLUTION /HIGHS TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND 70S/ AND
HENCE...WILL HOLD ON TO THIS THOUGHT PROCESS AND AWAIT MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  50  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         81  51  84  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  53  83  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     79  55  83  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  56  83  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   79  55  82  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    79  56  84  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     83  57  89  57  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          82  58  86  57  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     83  59  86  59  86 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044.

&&

$$

26/29






000
FXUS64 KAMA 230755
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
255 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. A RELATIVELY QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A CLEARING TREND
TODAY AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
RISES WILL OCCUR AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH (BY AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES) WILL BE
THE RESULT OF THIS ANOMALOUS RIDGE THIS WEEKEND AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE
TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH. SOME CIRRUS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SHORTWAVE BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND FORCING WILL BE MEAGER. ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND
LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL LIMIT PRE-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TO AREAS FURTHER EAST IN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE
SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION...A GRADUAL DEEPENING OF MOISTURE MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN ALSO
DEPICTING A DEEPER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH...HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
JUST ENOUGH FOR MENTION IN THE WX GRIDS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH PRE AND POST FRONTAL MAY END UP BEING THE
GREATEST IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  53  85  53  85 /   5   5   0   0   5
BEAVER OK                  79  53  89  52  87 /   5   5   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              75  50  85  49  85 /   0   5   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  79  55  87  56  88 /   5   5   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              78  50  87  50  87 /   5   5   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  78  51  86  51  85 /   5   5   0   0   5
CLARENDON TX               79  55  89  54  88 /   5   5   0   0   5
DALHART TX                 76  49  86  48  87 /   0   5   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  78  52  87  51  87 /   5   5   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                79  50  86  51  85 /   5   0   0   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                79  56  87  55  88 /   5   5   5   0   5
PAMPA TX                   77  53  85  53  85 /   5   5   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                79  55  88  55  89 /   5   5   5   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              80  58  87  58  90 /   5   5   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/17






000
FXUS64 KCRP 230619
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
119 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LGT NE/E WIND
EXPECTED DRG THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR DRG
THE 10-14Z THURSDAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. WEAK ECHOES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
UPPER JET PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...ONLY HAVE
20 POPS GOING AND HRRR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK ECHOES NEAR THE AREA
TONIGHT SO WILL NOT REMOVE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT SINCE MOST
CLOUDS ARE EITHER WEST OF NORTH OF AREA. LEFT REMAINDER OF
FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW...AS OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MAY NEED TO TONE THE WINDS DOWN FOR THE
COASTAL WATER FORECAST SINCE MOST AREAS ARE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN PSBLY SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AT THE INLAND SITES LATE
TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MSTR WILL INCRS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN
SOME CLOUDS IN THE 10-15K FOOT LAYER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...PER THE GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
FALLING...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONLY HAVE 5-10 POPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS FARTHER W AND S
ACROSS S TX. ONLY WEATHER BEYOND TODAY MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG THU MORNING BUT WITH VISIBILITIES AT 4SM OR BETTER...SO DO NOT
HAVE FOG IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS...SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MIN
TEMPS. A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD EAST WIND ACROSS S TX THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING VRB...BUT GENERALLY NE.
THEN A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON THU AND THU NIGHT. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A MODERATE E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. A MOD RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER IF WINDS DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED...THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE LOWER ON THU.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE...BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH
AXIS STARTS DIGGING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND SENDING A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO TEXAS. MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON TIMING AND LOCATION
BEFORE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE SWIFTLY
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS JUST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED AND THEN WASHING OUT IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. ALSO...THE GFS IS NO LONGER SHOWING THE SPORADIC
STRONG LOW/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE GULF AS IT WAS TRYING
TO SPIN UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...RATHER KEEPING A WEAK/BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. FOR THE TIME
KEPT POPS OUT OF THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
ISOLATED CHANCE AT LEAST FOR THE DAY 8 PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES BASED ON TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT GETS
CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  64  84  63  86  /  10  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          85  59  86  60  88  /  10  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            86  66  88  65  88  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             86  62  87  62  88  /  10  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          82  67  83  66  83  /  10  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           86  63  89  63  90  /  10  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        86  64  86  62  86  /  10  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       83  69  82  68  83  /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KAMA 230549 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1249 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY BRINGING IFR CEILINGS TO KAMA
SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE KDHT AND KGUY SHOULD
SEE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT WORST THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. THEN...AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT...EXPECT BR TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES UNTIL AFTER 15Z-16Z. SOME LIFR VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS IMPACTING ANY TAF
SITE ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 10 KTS AND
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE BEYOND 18Z.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS STARTING OUT FOR THE 00Z TAFS BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z. LINGERING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WE LOOSE
HEATING...BUT KAMA AND KGUY HAVE A CHANCE TO BE IMPACTED EARLY ON IN
THIS TAF CYCLE. AFTER SUNDOWN...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BETWEEN 1SM AND 2SM
BUT COULD DROP BELOW 1SM. THIS FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL 16Z TOMORROW
WHEN LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AFTER
THIS POINT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES GIVEN THE WET
GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID DAY THURSDAY...
LEAVING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND.

A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TO ALLOW A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE PLAINS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER IT WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE REGION OR NOT. MODELS ARE AGAIN AT ODDS ON HOW STRONG THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE MODELS START TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/17






000
FXUS64 KBRO 230544
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1244 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER DEEP S
TX. DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS...PATCHY GROUND FOG IS
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE MAINLY OVER KMFE AND LOCATIONS WESTWARD
WHERE WINDS COULD BECOME COMPLETELY CALM. AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...LESS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED BUT STILL SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP
SOME SCT CUMULUS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LACKING
FOR FOG BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT DID
ADD A MENTION OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT MFE...AND WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORING OVER SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL FELL EARLIER TODAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE PREVAILING TOMORROW POSSIBLY MUDDIED
THROUGH 14/15Z IF FOG FORMATION IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST.
/68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500 MB FIELDS SHOW AN
ELONGATED TROUGH DIGGING OVER WEST TX AND NORTHWEST MEXICO TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL TX LATER TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY
TOMORROW. THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CONV IF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS WOULD HOLD IN PLACE. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE STRONG
ISOLD CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DIED OUT OVER
SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY. KBRO RADAR SHOWS SCT CONV FIRING SOUTH OF
THE RIVER MOVING WEST OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. LAPS CAPE DATA SHOWS
SOME DECENT INSTABILITY REMAINING POOLED JUST OVER THE RGV AND
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF COASTLINE OF MEXICO. SO
ISOLD CONV WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO SOME LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION. WILL THEN GO NEAR ZERO POPS FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
EVENING IN LINE WITH MAV AND MET NUMBERS.

THE WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS AS THE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS DROP OFF. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO AS DIURNAL HEATING WILL TEND TO WARM UP
TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON PRETTY NICELY.

WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL EFFECTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS
TEXAS SATURDAY THEN BE FLATTENED SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY AND EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND CAPPED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE CFW FOR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMAIN PRETTY HIGH FOR THE SPI JETTIES. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF TD NINE...THE OLD STATIONARY
FRONT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONG PGF
WILL THEN START TO WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW
THE ELEVATED GULF SWELLS TO DECREASE. REPORTS FROM BUOY020
CURRENTLY SHOW THE GULF CONDITIONS HOLDING IN SCEC CRITERIA. SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SCA CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. NO SCEC OR SCA NEEDED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61







000
FXUS64 KMAF 230503
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1203 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars and satellite loops show convection/cloud cover has
pushed east of the region, while sfc obs indicate light return
flow. Buffer soundings suggest widespread stratus to develop near
sunrise, w/perhaps some fog most terminals. NAM buffer soundings
are quite pessimistic on cigs/visibilities 12-15Z, and won`t take
the bait just yet. For now, we`ll restrict cigs/vsbys to IFR at
worst, at KHOB/KINK/KPEQ, and MVFR at KCNM/KMAF. This should erode
by late morning, at which time a widespread cu field is forecast,
w/bases 4-4.5 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
TS remains in the area but is showing little movement, and will
probably dissipate before reaching any TAF sites. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected through tonight with MVFR or IFR possible in
southeast NM and the upper Trans Pecos around 12Z.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An area of showers that continues from this mornings convection will lift
off to the NE out of the Permian Basin and into the Low Rolling
Plains.  Even though there is above normal moisture indicated by
this mornings sounding with PWATs at 1.20 in, the showers are not
producing any significant rainfalls. As the Pacific NW trough moves
through the area through, it will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of this afternoon and into the early
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Looking at radar,
some scattered cells have already developed from the Davis
Mountains northward through the Permian Basin. The passing of an upper
jet will also help to promote lift to aid in thunderstorm
development. Instability parameters, on the other hand, do not
look overly impressive. Once the upper trough passes later today, the
chances for rain will drop off. An upper ridge will then build heading
into the weekend as temperatures will climb to above normal for
this time of year.

Looking into the extended, the ridge will be flattened by an
approaching trough bringing a cold front into the area sometime
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Do not anticipate any
precipitation with this front, but it will bring more normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 230503
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1203 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars and satellite loops show convection/cloud cover has
pushed east of the region, while sfc obs indicate light return
flow. Buffer soundings suggest widespread stratus to develop near
sunrise, w/perhaps some fog most terminals. NAM buffer soundings
are quite pessimistic on cigs/visibilities 12-15Z, and won`t take
the bait just yet. For now, we`ll restrict cigs/vsbys to IFR at
worst, at KHOB/KINK/KPEQ, and MVFR at KCNM/KMAF. This should erode
by late morning, at which time a widespread cu field is forecast,
w/bases 4-4.5 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
TS remains in the area but is showing little movement, and will
probably dissipate before reaching any TAF sites. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected through tonight with MVFR or IFR possible in
southeast NM and the upper Trans Pecos around 12Z.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An area of showers that continues from this mornings convection will lift
off to the NE out of the Permian Basin and into the Low Rolling
Plains.  Even though there is above normal moisture indicated by
this mornings sounding with PWATs at 1.20 in, the showers are not
producing any significant rainfalls. As the Pacific NW trough moves
through the area through, it will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of this afternoon and into the early
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Looking at radar,
some scattered cells have already developed from the Davis
Mountains northward through the Permian Basin. The passing of an upper
jet will also help to promote lift to aid in thunderstorm
development. Instability parameters, on the other hand, do not
look overly impressive. Once the upper trough passes later today, the
chances for rain will drop off. An upper ridge will then build heading
into the weekend as temperatures will climb to above normal for
this time of year.

Looking into the extended, the ridge will be flattened by an
approaching trough bringing a cold front into the area sometime
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Do not anticipate any
precipitation with this front, but it will bring more normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 230456 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1156 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS AROUND THE
METROPLEX OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE
METROPLEX. -RA MAY BRIEFLY BE OBSERVED AT KAFW AND KFTW BEFORE 06Z
BUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR NEAR THE TAF SITES AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z BUT ANY RAIN
SHOULD BE BRIEF. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION PRECIP IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS. EXPECT GENERALLY BKN TO OVC SKIES DUE TO A MIX OF CLOUDS
BETWEEN 5 TO 25 KFT.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WEST OF A GAINESVILLE TO WEATHERFORD TO
HAMILTON LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. MINERAL WELLS REPORTED
7SM -RA WITH A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION RECORDED WHEN THE LIGHT RAIN
MOVED OVER THEM. THUS HAVE ADDED SOME SPRINKLES FARTHER EAST TO
INCLUDE THE DFW METROPLEX NORTHEAST TO PARIS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  79  59  85  63 /  10  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              57  80  56  85  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  74  53  80  58 /  10  20   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  79  56  85  59 /  20  10   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          54  78  54  82  57 /  10  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  79  59  84  63 /  10  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           55  78  54  82  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         56  80  56  84  60 /   5   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  82  57  86  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  81  57  86  60 /  20  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58






000
FXUS64 KFWD 230456 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1156 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS AROUND THE
METROPLEX OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY SKIRTING THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE
METROPLEX. -RA MAY BRIEFLY BE OBSERVED AT KAFW AND KFTW BEFORE 06Z
BUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR NEAR THE TAF SITES AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-15Z BUT ANY RAIN
SHOULD BE BRIEF. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION PRECIP IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END
OF THIS TAF PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS. EXPECT GENERALLY BKN TO OVC SKIES DUE TO A MIX OF CLOUDS
BETWEEN 5 TO 25 KFT.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WEST OF A GAINESVILLE TO WEATHERFORD TO
HAMILTON LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. MINERAL WELLS REPORTED
7SM -RA WITH A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION RECORDED WHEN THE LIGHT RAIN
MOVED OVER THEM. THUS HAVE ADDED SOME SPRINKLES FARTHER EAST TO
INCLUDE THE DFW METROPLEX NORTHEAST TO PARIS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  79  59  85  63 /  10  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              57  80  56  85  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  74  53  80  58 /  10  20   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  79  56  85  59 /  20  10   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          54  78  54  82  57 /  10  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  79  59  84  63 /  10  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           55  78  54  82  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         56  80  56  84  60 /   5   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  82  57  86  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  81  57  86  60 /  20  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58






000
FXUS64 KHGX 230454
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1154 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS. DEWPOINTS ARE
TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SO FOG THREAT WILL REMAIN
LIMITED TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN SITES. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT LBX
ALREADY NEAR ZERO HAVE TRENDED THEIR OVERNIGHT VSBYS DOWNWARD. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...NO CHANGES TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IF THERE IS ONE TONIGHT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ONLY
IMPACT MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS IN THE MORNING BUT
POSSIBLE CLOUDS COULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TO STILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO KEPT FORECAST THE SAME AND ON TRACK WITH
CURRENT TRENDS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FOG THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN SITES.
MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN SITES
BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  58  85  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  83  57  83  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  81  66  81  68 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KHGX 230454
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1154 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS. DEWPOINTS ARE
TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SO FOG THREAT WILL REMAIN
LIMITED TO OUR SOUTHWESTERN SITES. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT LBX
ALREADY NEAR ZERO HAVE TRENDED THEIR OVERNIGHT VSBYS DOWNWARD. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...NO CHANGES TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IF THERE IS ONE TONIGHT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ONLY
IMPACT MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS IN THE MORNING BUT
POSSIBLE CLOUDS COULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TO STILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO KEPT FORECAST THE SAME AND ON TRACK WITH
CURRENT TRENDS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FOG THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN SITES.
MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN SITES
BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  58  85  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  83  57  83  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  81  66  81  68 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KEWX 230448 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 17Z THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACROSS KDRT...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH VBSYS RUNNING FROM 4
TO 6 SM THIS EVENING. AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS KDRT TO ABOUT 17Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AND
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. INCREASED POPS UP TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE
00-03Z TIME FRAME. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME WEAKENING
AFTER 3Z. ALTHOUGH POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL NORTHEAST FROM THE
SERRANIAS DEL BURROS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REACHING THE GROUND AT DRT. POPS ARE THUS
ARTIFICIALLY LOW TO REFLECT THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW
WEAKENING LIFT AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
THE EXTRA CLOUDS TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER OVER
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING INCREASES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TO LEAVE WARMER
THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND MILD LOWS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE GFS WHICH HAS
BACKTRACKED ON THE IDEA OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE WEAK TROUGHING
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO POOL
TOGETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL TRENDS...WILL ONLY SHOW CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  83  62  86  64 /  10  10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  86  58 /  10  10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  60  88  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  60  85  61 /  10  10  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  83  62  86  63 /  60  10   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  81  60  85  62 /  10  10  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  85  58  88  58 /  10  10  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  84  59  87  60 /  -   10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  83  58  87  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  86  63  88  65 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  86  62  89  63 /  -   10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29






000
FXUS64 KEWX 230448 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 17Z THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACROSS KDRT...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH VBSYS RUNNING FROM 4
TO 6 SM THIS EVENING. AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS KDRT TO ABOUT 17Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AND
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. INCREASED POPS UP TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE
00-03Z TIME FRAME. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME WEAKENING
AFTER 3Z. ALTHOUGH POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL NORTHEAST FROM THE
SERRANIAS DEL BURROS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REACHING THE GROUND AT DRT. POPS ARE THUS
ARTIFICIALLY LOW TO REFLECT THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW
WEAKENING LIFT AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
THE EXTRA CLOUDS TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER OVER
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING INCREASES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TO LEAVE WARMER
THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND MILD LOWS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE GFS WHICH HAS
BACKTRACKED ON THE IDEA OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE WEAK TROUGHING
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO POOL
TOGETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL TRENDS...WILL ONLY SHOW CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  83  62  86  64 /  10  10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  86  58 /  10  10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  60  88  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  60  85  61 /  10  10  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  83  62  86  63 /  60  10   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  81  60  85  62 /  10  10  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  85  58  88  58 /  10  10  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  84  59  87  60 /  -   10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  83  58  87  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  86  63  88  65 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  86  62  89  63 /  -   10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 230444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A REPRIEVE FROM LOW STRATUS AND VISBYS IS UNDERWAY AT KLBB AND
KCDS BUT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHORTLY RETURN
WITH CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. LOWERED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. REDUCED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
LOW STRATUS WAS ALREADY ENCOMPASSING THE REGION ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN QUICKLY WITH
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAKENING CHANNELED VORTICITY CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS SWINGING
THROUGH JUST BEHIND. COMBINED LIFT AND PARTIAL THINNING OF CLOUDS
THUS A TOUCH OF WARMING APPEAR TO BE LEADING TO SOMEWHAT RENEWED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO EASTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING. ANYWAY...THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER THROUGH EVENING FAVORING EASTERN AREAS.
AFTERWARDS WITH ANY CLEARING ON THE CAPROCK ESPECIALLY THERE WILL BE
A RISK OF FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE FURTHER WHILE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
SCOURING FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS WAVE. DEEPER DRYING IS EXPECTED
WITH DOMINANT MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY. LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO TURN SUNNY AND WARMER WITH LITTLE
CONTENTION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER WEST TEXAS LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY BREEZES AND FULL INSOLATION WILL PROMOTE A NICE FALL
WARM UP...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THESE WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND BUT WITH A MODEST UPTICK IN WINDS AS WESTERN TROUGHINESS
TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY. ANOTHER WARM
AND BREEZY DAY WILL KICK OFF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODEST COOLING
WILL OCCUR AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS FALL MORE NOTABLY WITH THE
APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWEST
AND SHARPEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS SLOWER...DEEPER SOLUTION COMES
TO FRUITION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF STORMS TO AT LEAST THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER WITH THIS EARLY WEEK WAVE AND WOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING
AN EXPLICIT PRECIPITATION MENTION PENDING INCREASED MODEL-TO-
MODEL CONSISTENCY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR FOR
LATE OCTOBER. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS ITERATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  78  49  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  79  51  85  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  78  52  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     51  78  54  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  78  54  83  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  83  55  89  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          55  80  57  86  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  81  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 230444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A REPRIEVE FROM LOW STRATUS AND VISBYS IS UNDERWAY AT KLBB AND
KCDS BUT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHORTLY RETURN
WITH CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. LOWERED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. REDUCED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
LOW STRATUS WAS ALREADY ENCOMPASSING THE REGION ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN QUICKLY WITH
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAKENING CHANNELED VORTICITY CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS SWINGING
THROUGH JUST BEHIND. COMBINED LIFT AND PARTIAL THINNING OF CLOUDS
THUS A TOUCH OF WARMING APPEAR TO BE LEADING TO SOMEWHAT RENEWED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO EASTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING. ANYWAY...THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER THROUGH EVENING FAVORING EASTERN AREAS.
AFTERWARDS WITH ANY CLEARING ON THE CAPROCK ESPECIALLY THERE WILL BE
A RISK OF FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE FURTHER WHILE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
SCOURING FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS WAVE. DEEPER DRYING IS EXPECTED
WITH DOMINANT MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY. LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO TURN SUNNY AND WARMER WITH LITTLE
CONTENTION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER WEST TEXAS LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY BREEZES AND FULL INSOLATION WILL PROMOTE A NICE FALL
WARM UP...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THESE WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND BUT WITH A MODEST UPTICK IN WINDS AS WESTERN TROUGHINESS
TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY. ANOTHER WARM
AND BREEZY DAY WILL KICK OFF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODEST COOLING
WILL OCCUR AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS FALL MORE NOTABLY WITH THE
APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWEST
AND SHARPEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS SLOWER...DEEPER SOLUTION COMES
TO FRUITION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF STORMS TO AT LEAST THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER WITH THIS EARLY WEEK WAVE AND WOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING
AN EXPLICIT PRECIPITATION MENTION PENDING INCREASED MODEL-TO-
MODEL CONSISTENCY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR FOR
LATE OCTOBER. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS ITERATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  78  49  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  79  51  85  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  78  52  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     51  78  54  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  78  54  83  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  83  55  89  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          55  80  57  86  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  81  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KSJT 230428
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1127 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
To remove PoPs...

DISCUSSION...
Showers continue to decrease in coverage or move east of the area
late this evening. Although an isolated shower will be possible in
the next hour across eastern Kimble County, most activity has
dissipated, so PoPs were removed for this evening. No additional
showers are expected during the early morning hours. Minor tweaks
were made to temperatures and dewpoint temperatures, otherwise no
other changes are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will dominate the weather at all
TAF sites through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A potent upper-level trough will move across the northern Plains
this evening, with a trailing trough axis extending south into
northern Mexico. Large scale ascent associated with this feature is
noted on water vapor imagery across West TX, ending north along the
warm conveyor belt. We`ve had just enough moisture to squeeze out
scattered rain showers across the Permian Basin, east into the
western portions of the Concho Valley and Big Country. Rainfall
amounts have been rather light, with most areas only recording a few
hundredths of an inch. Dewpoints have held in the mid 50s across the
western zones, where light precipitation has been more prevalent
with temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s. However, a few
areas remain in the 60s at this time.

The trough axis will move across the area tonight, bringing an end
to rain chances as a more subsident regime overspreads the area. A
slight chance of showers was retained for most of the area this
evening, then mainly west of a Haskell to San Angelo line after
midnight. Rainfall amounts will remain light. Expect overnight lows
in the mid to upper 50s. Any lingering rain showers should come to
an end late tonight. Cloud cover will gradually thin out during the
day tomorrow with light south winds and temperatures primarily in
the lower 80s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)

Expecting dry conditions with a warming trend Friday into the
weekend, as an upper level high shifts east across Texas. The
upper high will weaken Sunday and shift southeast over the
northern Gulf of Mexico, as a strong upper trough moves east
across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS. South winds will
increase and become gusty Sunday into Monday with lee side
surface trough development and increased surface pressure
gradient. Monday looks to be the warmest day, as low-level
thermal ridge builds into our area ahead of approaching cold
front. A few locations could have highs around the 90 degree
mark on Monday.

The upper trough is progged to move east across the northern
Plains Monday afternoon and Monday night, sending aforementioned
cold front south into our northern counties by Tuesday morning.
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ with the upper trough and strength
of associated cold front. The ECMWF digs the southern portion of
the trough into North Texas and has a stronger cold frontal
passage on Tuesday, along with some chance of showers and
thunderstorms across our northern counties. While confidence in
a specific solution is not high, favor the weaker GFS version
at this time. Have too much uncertainty to add mentionable PoPs
yet with the cold front. Depending on timing with this front,
temperatures could still reach the lower/mid 80s across the
southern half of our area Tuesday. Temperatures look to be several
degrees cooler, but still above normal for Wednesday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  58  81  59  86  60 /  10   5  10   5   5
San Angelo  56  82  56  86  57 /  10  10   5   5   5
Junction  57  83  55  85  56 /  10  10   5   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll/Huber








000
FXUS64 KSJT 230428
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1127 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
To remove PoPs...

DISCUSSION...
Showers continue to decrease in coverage or move east of the area
late this evening. Although an isolated shower will be possible in
the next hour across eastern Kimble County, most activity has
dissipated, so PoPs were removed for this evening. No additional
showers are expected during the early morning hours. Minor tweaks
were made to temperatures and dewpoint temperatures, otherwise no
other changes are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will dominate the weather at all
TAF sites through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A potent upper-level trough will move across the northern Plains
this evening, with a trailing trough axis extending south into
northern Mexico. Large scale ascent associated with this feature is
noted on water vapor imagery across West TX, ending north along the
warm conveyor belt. We`ve had just enough moisture to squeeze out
scattered rain showers across the Permian Basin, east into the
western portions of the Concho Valley and Big Country. Rainfall
amounts have been rather light, with most areas only recording a few
hundredths of an inch. Dewpoints have held in the mid 50s across the
western zones, where light precipitation has been more prevalent
with temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s. However, a few
areas remain in the 60s at this time.

The trough axis will move across the area tonight, bringing an end
to rain chances as a more subsident regime overspreads the area. A
slight chance of showers was retained for most of the area this
evening, then mainly west of a Haskell to San Angelo line after
midnight. Rainfall amounts will remain light. Expect overnight lows
in the mid to upper 50s. Any lingering rain showers should come to
an end late tonight. Cloud cover will gradually thin out during the
day tomorrow with light south winds and temperatures primarily in
the lower 80s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)

Expecting dry conditions with a warming trend Friday into the
weekend, as an upper level high shifts east across Texas. The
upper high will weaken Sunday and shift southeast over the
northern Gulf of Mexico, as a strong upper trough moves east
across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS. South winds will
increase and become gusty Sunday into Monday with lee side
surface trough development and increased surface pressure
gradient. Monday looks to be the warmest day, as low-level
thermal ridge builds into our area ahead of approaching cold
front. A few locations could have highs around the 90 degree
mark on Monday.

The upper trough is progged to move east across the northern
Plains Monday afternoon and Monday night, sending aforementioned
cold front south into our northern counties by Tuesday morning.
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ with the upper trough and strength
of associated cold front. The ECMWF digs the southern portion of
the trough into North Texas and has a stronger cold frontal
passage on Tuesday, along with some chance of showers and
thunderstorms across our northern counties. While confidence in
a specific solution is not high, favor the weaker GFS version
at this time. Have too much uncertainty to add mentionable PoPs
yet with the cold front. Depending on timing with this front,
temperatures could still reach the lower/mid 80s across the
southern half of our area Tuesday. Temperatures look to be several
degrees cooler, but still above normal for Wednesday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  58  81  59  86  60 /  10   5  10   5   5
San Angelo  56  82  56  86  57 /  10  10   5   5   5
Junction  57  83  55  85  56 /  10  10   5   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll/Huber








000
FXUS64 KLUB 230316
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1016 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW STRATUS WAS ALREADY ENCOMPASSING THE REGION ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN QUICKLY WITH
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF
REDUCED VISBYS TONIGHT. FOG LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THURSDAY
MORNING WITH HIGHER CHANCES AT KLBB. THE DEGREE OF REDUCTION IS
UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CLEAR
OUT OF KLBB NEAR OR JUST AFTER 00Z WITH THESE CIGS STICKING AROUND
KCDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. SOME REDUCTION IN
VISBYS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KCDS BUT WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY AS KLBB.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAKENING CHANNELED VORTICITY CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS SWINGING
THROUGH JUST BEHIND. COMBINED LIFT AND PARTIAL THINNING OF CLOUDS
THUS A TOUCH OF WARMING APPEAR TO BE LEADING TO SOMEWHAT RENEWED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO EASTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING. ANYWAY...THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER THROUGH EVENING FAVORING EASTERN AREAS.
AFTERWARDS WITH ANY CLEARING ON THE CAPROCK ESPECIALLY THERE WILL BE
A RISK OF FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE FURTHER WHILE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
SCOURING FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS WAVE. DEEPER DRYING IS EXPECTED
WITH DOMINANT MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY. LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO TURN SUNNY AND WARMER WITH LITTLE
CONTENTION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER WEST TEXAS LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY BREEZES AND FULL INSOLATION WILL PROMOTE A NICE FALL
WARM UP...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THESE WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND BUT WITH A MODEST UPTICK IN WINDS AS WESTERN TROUGHINESS
TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY. ANOTHER WARM
AND BREEZY DAY WILL KICK OFF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODEST COOLING
WILL OCCUR AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS FALL MORE NOTABLY WITH THE
APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWEST
AND SHARPEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS SLOWER...DEEPER SOLUTION COMES
TO FRUITION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF STORMS TO AT LEAST THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER WITH THIS EARLY WEEK WAVE AND WOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING
AN EXPLICIT PRECIPITATION MENTION PENDING INCREASED MODEL-TO-
MODEL CONSISTENCY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR FOR
LATE OCTOBER. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS ITERATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  78  49  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  79  51  85  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  78  52  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     51  78  54  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  78  54  83  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  83  55  89  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          55  80  57  86  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  81  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99







000
FXUS64 KFWD 230305 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1005 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WEST OF A GAINESVILLE TO WEATHERFORD TO
HAMILTON LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. MINERAL WELLS REPORTED
7SM -RA WITH A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION RECORDED WHEN THE LIGHT RAIN
MOVED OVER THEM. THUS HAVE ADDED SOME SPRINKLES FARTHER EAST TO
INCLUDE THE DFW METROPLEX NORTHEAST TO PARIS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND THE METROPLEX
OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL TEXAS...FROM WICHITA FALLS TO BRECKENRIDGE
TOWARD KERRVILLE. THIS AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING EAST
BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BEFORE REACHING THE TAF
SITES. IT IS POSSIBLE BRIEF LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH KFTW AND/OR
KAFW BEFORE DISSIPATING BUT WILL NOT MENTION -RA IN THE TAFS THIS
EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH OCCURRING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF VCSH FROM THE TAFS AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE DFW TAF AIRPORTS TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-15Z BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS. A MIX OF
CLOUDS BETWEEN 5 TO 25 KFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  79  59  85  63 /  10  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              57  80  56  85  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  74  53  80  58 /  10  20   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  79  56  85  59 /  20  10   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          54  78  54  82  57 /  10  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  79  59  84  63 /  10  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           55  78  54  82  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         56  80  56  84  60 /   5   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  82  57  86  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  81  57  86  60 /  20  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58








000
FXUS64 KSJT 230240 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
940 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
To remove PoPs...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers continue to decrease in coverage or move east of the area
late this evening. Although an isolated shower will be possible in
the next hour across eastern Kimble County, most activity has
dissipated, so PoPs were removed for this evening. No additional
showers are expected during the early morning hours. Minor tweaks
were made to temperatures and dewpoint temperatures, otherwise no
other changes are needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will dominate the weather at all
TAF sites through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A potent upper-level trough will move across the northern Plains
this evening, with a trailing trough axis extending south into
northern Mexico. Large scale ascent associated with this feature is
noted on water vapor imagery across West TX, ending north along the
warm conveyor belt. We`ve had just enough moisture to squeeze out
scattered rain showers across the Permian Basin, east into the
western portions of the Concho Valley and Big Country. Rainfall
amounts have been rather light, with most areas only recording a few
hundredths of an inch. Dewpoints have held in the mid 50s across the
western zones, where light precipitation has been more prevalent
with temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s. However, a few
areas remain in the 60s at this time.

The trough axis will move across the area tonight, bringing an end
to rain chances as a more subsident regime overspreads the area. A
slight chance of showers was retained for most of the area this
evening, then mainly west of a Haskell to San Angelo line after
midnight. Rainfall amounts will remain light. Expect overnight lows
in the mid to upper 50s. Any lingering rain showers should come to
an end late tonight. Cloud cover will gradually thin out during the
day tomorrow with light south winds and temperatures primarily in
the lower 80s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)

Expecting dry conditions with a warming trend Friday into the
weekend, as an upper level high shifts east across Texas. The
upper high will weaken Sunday and shift southeast over the
northern Gulf of Mexico, as a strong upper trough moves east
across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS. South winds will
increase and become gusty Sunday into Monday with lee side
surface trough development and increased surface pressure
gradient. Monday looks to be the warmest day, as low-level
thermal ridge builds into our area ahead of approaching cold
front. A few locations could have highs around the 90 degree
mark on Monday.

The upper trough is progged to move east across the northern
Plains Monday afternoon and Monday night, sending aforementioned
cold front south into our northern counties by Tuesday morning.
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ with the upper trough and strength
of associated cold front. The ECMWF digs the southern portion of
the trough into North Texas and has a stronger cold frontal
passage on Tuesday, along with some chance of showers and
thunderstorms across our northern counties. While confidence in
a specific solution is not high, favor the weaker GFS version
at this time. Have too much uncertainty to add mentionable PoPs
yet with the cold front. Depending on timing with this front,
temperatures could still reach the lower/mid 80s across the
southern half of our area Tuesday. Temperatures look to be several
degrees cooler, but still above normal for Wednesday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  58  81  59  86  60 /  10   5  10   5   5
San Angelo  56  82  56  86  57 /  10  10   5   5   5
Junction  57  83  55  85  56 /  10  10   5   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KCRP 230154 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
854 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. WEAK ECHOES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
UPPER JET PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...ONLY HAVE
20 POPS GOING AND HRRR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK ECHOES NEAR THE AREA
TONIGHT SO WILL NOT REMOVE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT SINCE MOST
CLOUDS ARE EITHER WEST OF NORTH OF AREA. LEFT REMAINDER OF
FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW...AS OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MAY NEED TO TONE THE WINDS DOWN FOR THE
COASTAL WATER FORECAST SINCE MOST AREAS ARE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN PSBLY SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AT THE INLAND SITES LATE
TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MSTR WILL INCRS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN
SOME CLOUDS IN THE 10-15K FOOT LAYER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...PER THE GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
FALLING...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONLY HAVE 5-10 POPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS FARTHER W AND S
ACROSS S TX. ONLY WEATHER BEYOND TODAY MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG THU MORNING BUT WITH VISIBILITIES AT 4SM OR BETTER...SO DO NOT
HAVE FOG IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS...SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MIN
TEMPS. A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD EAST WIND ACROSS S TX THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING VRB...BUT GENERALLY NE.
THEN A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON THU AND THU NIGHT. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A MODERATE E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. A MOD RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER IF WINDS DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED...THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE LOWER ON THU.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE...BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH
AXIS STARTS DIGGING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND SENDING A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO TEXAS. MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON TIMING AND LOCATION
BEFORE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE SWIFTLY
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS JUST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED AND THEN WASHING OUT IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. ALSO...THE GFS IS NO LONGER SHOWING THE SPORADIC
STRONG LOW/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE GULF AS IT WAS TRYING
TO SPIN UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...RATHER KEEPING A WEAK/BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. FOR THE TIME
KEPT POPS OUT OF THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
ISOLATED CHANCE AT LEAST FOR THE DAY 8 PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES BASED ON TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT GETS
CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  84  64  84  63  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          60  85  59  86  60  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            68  86  66  88  65  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             64  86  62  87  62  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          69  82  67  83  66  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           65  86  63  89  63  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        65  86  64  86  62  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       72  83  69  82  68  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 230154 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
854 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. WEAK ECHOES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH
UPPER JET PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...ONLY HAVE
20 POPS GOING AND HRRR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK ECHOES NEAR THE AREA
TONIGHT SO WILL NOT REMOVE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT SINCE MOST
CLOUDS ARE EITHER WEST OF NORTH OF AREA. LEFT REMAINDER OF
FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW...AS OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET.
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. MAY NEED TO TONE THE WINDS DOWN FOR THE
COASTAL WATER FORECAST SINCE MOST AREAS ARE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN PSBLY SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AT THE INLAND SITES LATE
TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MSTR WILL INCRS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN
SOME CLOUDS IN THE 10-15K FOOT LAYER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...PER THE GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
FALLING...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONLY HAVE 5-10 POPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS FARTHER W AND S
ACROSS S TX. ONLY WEATHER BEYOND TODAY MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG THU MORNING BUT WITH VISIBILITIES AT 4SM OR BETTER...SO DO NOT
HAVE FOG IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS...SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MIN
TEMPS. A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD EAST WIND ACROSS S TX THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING VRB...BUT GENERALLY NE.
THEN A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON THU AND THU NIGHT. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A MODERATE E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. A MOD RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER IF WINDS DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED...THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE LOWER ON THU.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE...BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH
AXIS STARTS DIGGING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND SENDING A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO TEXAS. MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON TIMING AND LOCATION
BEFORE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE SWIFTLY
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS JUST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED AND THEN WASHING OUT IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. ALSO...THE GFS IS NO LONGER SHOWING THE SPORADIC
STRONG LOW/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE GULF AS IT WAS TRYING
TO SPIN UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...RATHER KEEPING A WEAK/BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. FOR THE TIME
KEPT POPS OUT OF THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
ISOLATED CHANCE AT LEAST FOR THE DAY 8 PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES BASED ON TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT GETS
CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  84  64  84  63  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          60  85  59  86  60  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            68  86  66  88  65  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             64  86  62  87  62  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          69  82  67  83  66  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           65  86  63  89  63  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        65  86  64  86  62  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       72  83  69  82  68  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KHGX 230144
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
844 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...NO CHANGES TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IF THERE IS ONE TONIGHT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ONLY
IMPACT MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS IN THE MORNING BUT
POSSIBLE CLOUDS COULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TO STILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO KEPT FORECAST THE SAME AND ON TRACK WITH
CURRENT TRENDS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FOG THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN SITES.
MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN SITES
BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. 38


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  58  85  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  83  57  83  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  81  66  81  68 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 230144
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
844 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING FORECAST UPDATE...NO CHANGES TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IF THERE IS ONE TONIGHT WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ONLY
IMPACT MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER MIN TEMPS IN THE MORNING BUT
POSSIBLE CLOUDS COULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TO STILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO KEPT FORECAST THE SAME AND ON TRACK WITH
CURRENT TRENDS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FOG THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN SITES.
MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN SITES
BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. 38


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  58  85  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  83  57  83  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  81  66  81  68 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39




000
FXUS64 KFWD 222345 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND THE METROPLEX
OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL TEXAS...FROM WICHITA FALLS TO BRECKENRIDGE
TOWARD KERRVILLE. THIS AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING EAST
BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BEFORE REACHING THE TAF
SITES. IT IS POSSIBLE BRIEF LIGHT RAIN COULD REACH KFTW AND/OR
KAFW BEFORE DISSIPATING BUT WILL NOT MENTION -RA IN THE TAFS THIS
EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH OCCURRING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF VCSH FROM THE TAFS AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE DFW TAF AIRPORTS TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-15Z BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS. A MIX OF
CLOUDS BETWEEN 5 TO 25 KFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...IT WILL
DRAG AN ATTENDANT TROUGH WITH IT. THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS
MEAGER...BUT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...
IMPROVING THE CHANCES THAT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE VERIFIED AT THE
SURFACE. DESPITE THE INCREASING LIFT IN THE MID-LEVELS...MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL MEAN RATHER BENIGN CONVECTION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE IN WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS ON FRIDAY
AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S REGION WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE
SATURDAY WHEN A FEW LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH THE 90-DEGREE MARK.
DFW AIRPORT WILL BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH...BUT THE RECORDS AT
WACO ARE LIKELY UNTOUCHABLE. (SEE NUMBERS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.)

THE RIDGE WILL RETURN TO A MORE APPROPRIATE LATITUDE NEAR THE
TROPIC OF CANCER...AND THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL INVADE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE...THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
WHICH WILL DICTATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. HAVE SIDED WITH A
LESS DRAMATIC GFS/GEM CONSENSUS...WHICH STALLS THE BOUNDARY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IT ALSO MEANS
LESS FORCING AND A STRONGER CAP THAN THE ECMWF...AND
CORRESPONDINGLY LESS PRECIP.

25

&&


.CLIMATE...
          FRI OCT 24          SAT OCT 25          SUN OCT 26
      FORECAST / RECORD   FORECAST / RECORD   FORECAST / RECORD

DFW    85 / 90 IN 2003     87 / 89 IN 1992*    86 / 92 IN 1950
WACO   85 / 91 IN 1992*    87 / 94 IN 1992     87 / 94 IN 1992

   * AND IN EARLIER YEARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  79  59  85  63 /  10  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              57  80  56  85  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  74  53  80  58 /  10  20   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  79  56  85  59 /  20  10   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          54  78  54  82  57 /  10  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  79  59  84  63 /  10  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           55  78  54  82  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         56  80  56  84  60 /   5   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  82  57  86  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  81  57  86  60 /  20  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58






000
FXUS64 KSJT 222342
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will dominate the weather at all
TAF sites through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A potent upper-level trough will move across the northern Plains
this evening, with a trailing trough axis extending south into
northern Mexico. Large scale ascent associated with this feature is
noted on water vapor imagery across West TX, ending north along the
warm conveyor belt. We`ve had just enough moisture to squeeze out
scattered rain showers across the Permian Basin, east into the
western portions of the Concho Valley and Big Country. Rainfall
amounts have been rather light, with most areas only recording a few
hundredths of an inch. Dewpoints have held in the mid 50s across the
western zones, where light precipitation has been more prevalent
with temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s. However, a few
areas remain in the 60s at this time.

The trough axis will move across the area tonight, bringing an end
to rain chances as a more subsident regime overspreads the area. A
slight chance of showers was retained for most of the area this
evening, then mainly west of a Haskell to San Angelo line after
midnight. Rainfall amounts will remain light. Expect overnight lows
in the mid to upper 50s. Any lingering rain showers should come to
an end late tonight. Cloud cover will gradually thin out during the
day tomorrow with light south winds and temperatures primarily in
the lower 80s.

Johnson

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)

Expecting dry conditions with a warming trend Friday into the
weekend, as an upper level high shifts east across Texas. The
upper high will weaken Sunday and shift southeast over the
northern Gulf of Mexico, as a strong upper trough moves east
across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS. South winds will
increase and become gusty Sunday into Monday with lee side
surface trough development and increased surface pressure
gradient. Monday looks to be the warmest day, as low-level
thermal ridge builds into our area ahead of approaching cold
front. A few locations could have highs around the 90 degree
mark on Monday.

The upper trough is progged to move east across the northern
Plains Monday afternoon and Monday night, sending aforementioned
cold front south into our northern counties by Tuesday morning.
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ with the upper trough and strength
of associated cold front. The ECMWF digs the southern portion of
the trough into North Texas and has a stronger cold frontal
passage on Tuesday, along with some chance of showers and
thunderstorms across our northern counties. While confidence in
a specific solution is not high, favor the weaker GFS version
at this time. Have too much uncertainty to add mentionable PoPs
yet with the cold front. Depending on timing with this front,
temperatures could still reach the lower/mid 80s across the
southern half of our area Tuesday. Temperatures look to be several
degrees cooler, but still above normal for Wednesday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  58  81  59  86  60 /  20   5  10   5   5
San Angelo  56  82  56  86  57 /  20  10   5   5   5
Junction  57  83  55  85  56 /  20  10   5   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

60/14/60








000
FXUS64 KCRP 222337
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN PSBLY SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AT THE INLAND SITES LATE
TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL MSTR WILL INCRS AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN
SOME CLOUDS IN THE 10-15K FOOT LAYER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...PER THE GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
FALLING...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONLY HAVE 5-10 POPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS FARTHER W AND S
ACROSS S TX. ONLY WEATHER BEYOND TODAY MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG THU MORNING BUT WITH VISIBILITIES AT 4SM OR BETTER...SO DO NOT
HAVE FOG IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS...SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MIN
TEMPS. A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD EAST WIND ACROSS S TX THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING VRB...BUT GENERALLY NE.
THEN A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON THU AND THU NIGHT. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A MODERATE E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. A MOD RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER IF WINDS DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED...THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE LOWER ON THU.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE...BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH
AXIS STARTS DIGGING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND SENDING A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO TEXAS. MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON TIMING AND LOCATION
BEFORE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE SWIFTLY
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS JUST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED AND THEN WASHING OUT IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. ALSO...THE GFS IS NO LONGER SHOWING THE SPORADIC
STRONG LOW/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE GULF AS IT WAS TRYING
TO SPIN UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...RATHER KEEPING A WEAK/BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. FOR THE TIME
KEPT POPS OUT OF THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
ISOLATED CHANCE AT LEAST FOR THE DAY 8 PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES BASED ON TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT GETS
CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  67  84  64  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          86  60  85  59  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            87  68  86  66  88  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             86  64  86  62  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          83  69  82  67  83  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           87  65  86  63  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        86  65  86  64  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       83  72  83  69  82  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TJ/70...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KEWX 222332 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACROSS KDRT...LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH VBSYS RUNNING FROM 4
TO 6 SM THIS EVENING. AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS KDRT TO ABOUT 17Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AND
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. INCREASED POPS UP TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE
00-03Z TIME FRAME. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME WEAKENING
AFTER 3Z. ALTHOUGH POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL NORTHEAST FROM THE
SERRANIAS DEL BURROS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REACHING THE GROUND AT DRT. POPS ARE THUS
ARTIFICIALLY LOW TO REFLECT THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW
WEAKENING LIFT AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
THE EXTRA CLOUDS TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER OVER
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING INCREASES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TO LEAVE WARMER
THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND MILD LOWS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE GFS WHICH HAS
BACKTRACKED ON THE IDEA OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE WEAK TROUGHING
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO POOL
TOGETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL TRENDS...WILL ONLY SHOW CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  83  62  86  64 /  -   10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  86  58 /  -   10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  60  88  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  60  85  61 /  10  10  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  83  62  86  63 /  60  10   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  81  60  85  62 /  -   10  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  85  58  88  58 /  10  10  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  84  59  87  60 /  -   10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  83  58  87  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  86  63  88  65 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  86  62  89  63 /  -   10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29






000
FXUS64 KHGX 222326
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
626 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT FOG THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN SITES.
MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN SITES
BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE NEAR TERM CONUS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE OF A MIDWESTERN
SURFACE RIDGE FILLING IN ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF A NEW ENGLAND
NOR`EASTER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOWER LEVEL NORTH TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN NEEDED TO KEEP MEAN LOWER TO MIDDLE 50 DEW
POINTS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
NOW RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ASSERT A BIT OF AN
INFLUENCE UPON EASTERN TEXAS...IF NOTHING MORE THAN TO FORTIFY
PRECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MIX OUT WILL HAVE SURFACE
HUMIDITIES FALLING TO UNDER 50% THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PACIFIC NW
ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER AMPLIFIED WESTERN UPPER RIDGING WILL
DIVE DOWN AND DEEPEN A LATE WEEK MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH WHILE THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS CHAIN
OF EVENTS WILL AID IN VEERING EASTERLIES AROUND TO ONSHORE BY THE
COB SUNDAY. THE EASTERN EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE EQUATES TO
NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES AND MAKES THIS SET OF PRODUCTS PRIMARILY
TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE FORECASTS.

THE REGION MAY GET CLIPPED BY A THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS...IN
TANDEM WITH UPPER RIDGING ENVELOPING TEXAS...WILL VEER MID-LEVEL
WINDS AROUND TO MORE OF A SOUTH OR WEST COMPONENT. FLATTENED MID-
UPPER RIDGING/NORTHERN GULF SURFACE HIGH...WITH WEAK ROCKY MOUNTAIN
TROUGHING...MAY VEER MID-LEVEL WINDS ENOUGH SOUTHWEST TO WARM
SUBSEQUENT DAYS BY A FEW DEGREES. 10-5H THICKNESS VALUES ARE
MODELED TO INCREASE BY AN ADDITIONAL 50 OR 60 METERS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FROM MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL REGULATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMTH...BUT HAVE INCREASED WEEKEND T NUMBERS BY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO SIDE WITH THE LOW STD DEV MEN NUMBERS.
EXTENDED MODEL INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE
EXISTENCE OF A PASSING TROUGH/FROPA HAVE JUST KEPT SLIGHT OR
LOWER POPS IN GRIDS. RECENT TRENDS HAVE FAVORED THE FASTER MORE
SHALLOWER TROUGH PASSAGES (GFS) SO WILL REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON WHEN TO
BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE DISCUSSION. 31

MARINE...
TD 9 LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE DEPRESSION
MOVES EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
06Z FOR MAINLY ELEVATED SEAS...BUT SEA HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DAMPEN OUT WITH TIME. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A
HALF FOOT OF NORMAL.

A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MORE OR LESS STAY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...
SPEEDS WILL APPROACH SCEC CRITERIA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  58  85  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  83  57  83  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  81  66  81  68 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KBRO 222325 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
625 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE LACKING
FOR FOG BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT DID
ADD A MENTION OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT MFE...AND WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORING OVER SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL FELL EARLIER TODAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE PREVAILING TOMORROW POSSIBLY MUDDIED
THROUGH 14/15Z IF FOG FORMATION IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST.
/68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500 MB FIELDS SHOW AN
ELONGATED TROUGH DIGGING OVER WEST TX AND NORTHWEST MEXICO TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL TX LATER TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY
TOMORROW. THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CONV IF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS WOULD HOLD IN PLACE. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE STRONG
ISOLD CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DIED OUT OVER
SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY. KBRO RADAR SHOWS SCT CONV FIRING SOUTH OF
THE RIVER MOVING WEST OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. LAPS CAPE DATA SHOWS
SOME DECENT INSTABILITY REMAINING POOLED JUST OVER THE RGV AND
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF COASTLINE OF MEXICO. SO
ISOLD CONV WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO SOME LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION. WILL THEN GO NEAR ZERO POPS FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
EVENING IN LINE WITH MAV AND MET NUMBERS.

THE WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS AS THE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS DROP OFF. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO AS DIURNAL HEATING WILL TEND TO WARM UP
TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON PRETTY NICELY.

WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL EFFECTS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS
TEXAS SATURDAY THEN BE FLATTENED SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY AND EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND CAPPED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE CFW FOR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMAIN PRETTY HIGH FOR THE SPI JETTIES. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF TD NINE...THE OLD STATIONARY
FRONT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONG PGF
WILL THEN START TO WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW
THE ELEVATED GULF SWELLS TO DECREASE. REPORTS FROM BUOY020
CURRENTLY SHOW THE GULF CONDITIONS HOLDING IN SCEC CRITERIA. SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SCA CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. NO SCEC OR SCA NEEDED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/59







000
FXUS64 KLUB 222324
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF
REDUCED VISBYS TONIGHT. FOG LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THURSDAY
MORNING WITH HIGHER CHANCES AT KLBB. THE DEGREE OF REDUCTION IS
UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CLEAR
OUT OF KLBB NEAR OR JUST AFTER 00Z WITH THESE CIGS STICKING AROUND
KCDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. SOME REDUCTION IN
VISBYS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KCDS BUT WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY AS KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAKENING CHANNELED VORTICITY CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS SWINGING
THROUGH JUST BEHIND. COMBINED LIFT AND PARTIAL THINNING OF CLOUDS
THUS A TOUCH OF WARMING APPEAR TO BE LEADING TO SOMEWHAT RENEWED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO EASTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING. ANYWAY...THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER THROUGH EVENING FAVORING EASTERN AREAS.
AFTERWARDS WITH ANY CLEARING ON THE CAPROCK ESPECIALLY THERE WILL BE
A RISK OF FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE FURTHER WHILE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
SCOURING FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS WAVE. DEEPER DRYING IS EXPECTED
WITH DOMINANT MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY. LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO TURN SUNNY AND WARMER WITH LITTLE
CONTENTION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER WEST TEXAS LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY BREEZES AND FULL INSOLATION WILL PROMOTE A NICE FALL
WARM UP...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THESE WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND BUT WITH A MODEST UPTICK IN WINDS AS WESTERN TROUGHINESS
TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY. ANOTHER WARM
AND BREEZY DAY WILL KICK OFF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODEST COOLING
WILL OCCUR AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS FALL MORE NOTABLY WITH THE
APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWEST
AND SHARPEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS SLOWER...DEEPER SOLUTION COMES
TO FRUITION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF STORMS TO AT LEAST THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER WITH THIS EARLY WEEK WAVE AND WOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING
AN EXPLICIT PRECIPITATION MENTION PENDING INCREASED MODEL-TO-
MODEL CONSISTENCY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR FOR
LATE OCTOBER. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS ITERATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  78  49  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  79  51  85  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  78  52  84  53 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     51  78  54  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  78  55  84  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  78  54  83  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  78  55  84  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  83  55  89  57 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          55  80  57  86  57 /  30  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  81  57  86  58 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KEWX 222309
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AND
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. INCREASED POPS UP TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE
00-03Z TIME FRAME. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME WEAKENING
AFTER 3Z. ALTHOUGH POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL NORTHEAST FROM THE
SERRANIAS DEL BURROS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REACHING THE GROUND AT DRT. POPS ARE THUS
ARTIFICIALLY LOW TO REFLECT THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW
WEAKENING LIFT AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
THE EXTRA CLOUDS TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER OVER
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING INCREASES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TO LEAVE WARMER
THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND MILD LOWS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE GFS WHICH HAS
BACKTRACKED ON THE IDEA OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE WEAK TROUGHING
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO POOL
TOGETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL TRENDS...WILL ONLY SHOW CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  83  62  86  64 /  -   10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  86  58 /  -   10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  60  88  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  60  85  61 /  10  10  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  83  62  86  63 /  60  10   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  81  60  85  62 /  -   10  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  85  58  88  58 /  10  10  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  84  59  87  60 /  -   10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  83  58  87  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  86  63  88  65 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  86  62  89  63 /  -   10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KAMA 222309
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS STARTING OUT FOR THE 00Z TAFS BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z. LINGERING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WE LOOSE
HEATING...BUT KAMA AND KGUY HAVE A CHANCE TO BE IMPACTED EARLY ON IN
THIS TAF CYCLE. AFTER SUNDOWN...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BETWEEN 1SM AND 2SM
BUT COULD DROP BELOW 1SM. THIS FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL 16Z TOMORROW
WHEN LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AFTER
THIS POINT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES GIVEN THE WET
GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID DAY THURSDAY...
LEAVING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND.

A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TO ALLOW A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE PLAINS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER IT WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE REGION OR NOT. MODELS ARE AGAIN AT ODDS ON HOW STRONG THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE MODELS START TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/14






000
FXUS64 KEWX 222309
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AND
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. INCREASED POPS UP TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE
00-03Z TIME FRAME. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME WEAKENING
AFTER 3Z. ALTHOUGH POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL NORTHEAST FROM THE
SERRANIAS DEL BURROS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REACHING THE GROUND AT DRT. POPS ARE THUS
ARTIFICIALLY LOW TO REFLECT THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW
WEAKENING LIFT AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
THE EXTRA CLOUDS TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER OVER
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING INCREASES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TO LEAVE WARMER
THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND MILD LOWS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE GFS WHICH HAS
BACKTRACKED ON THE IDEA OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE WEAK TROUGHING
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO POOL
TOGETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL TRENDS...WILL ONLY SHOW CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  83  62  86  64 /  -   10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  86  58 /  -   10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  60  88  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  60  85  61 /  10  10  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  83  62  86  63 /  60  10   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  81  60  85  62 /  -   10  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  85  58  88  58 /  10  10  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  84  59  87  60 /  -   10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  83  58  87  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  86  63  88  65 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  86  62  89  63 /  -   10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KAMA 222309
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS STARTING OUT FOR THE 00Z TAFS BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z. LINGERING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WE LOOSE
HEATING...BUT KAMA AND KGUY HAVE A CHANCE TO BE IMPACTED EARLY ON IN
THIS TAF CYCLE. AFTER SUNDOWN...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BETWEEN 1SM AND 2SM
BUT COULD DROP BELOW 1SM. THIS FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL 16Z TOMORROW
WHEN LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AFTER
THIS POINT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES GIVEN THE WET
GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID DAY THURSDAY...
LEAVING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND.

A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TO ALLOW A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE PLAINS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER IT WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE REGION OR NOT. MODELS ARE AGAIN AT ODDS ON HOW STRONG THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE MODELS START TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/14






000
FXUS64 KMAF 222300
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS remains in the area but is showing little movement, and will
probably dissipate before reaching any TAF sites. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected through tonight with MVFR or IFR possible in
southeast NM and the upper Trans Pecos around 12Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An area of showers that continues from this mornings convection will lift
off to the NE out of the Permian Basin and into the Low Rolling
Plains.  Even though there is above normal moisture indicated by
this mornings sounding with PWATs at 1.20 in, the showers are not
producing any significant rainfalls. As the Pacific NW trough moves
through the area through, it will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of this afternoon and into the early
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Looking at radar,
some scattered cells have already developed from the Davis
Mountains northward through the Permian Basin. The passing of an upper
jet will also help to promote lift to aid in thunderstorm
development. Instability parameters, on the other hand, do not
look overly impressive. Once the upper trough passes later today, the
chances for rain will drop off. An upper ridge will then build heading
into the weekend as temperatures will climb to above normal for
this time of year.

Looking into the extended, the ridge will be flattened by an
approaching trough bringing a cold front into the area sometime
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Do not anticipate any
precipitation with this front, but it will bring more normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 222300
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS remains in the area but is showing little movement, and will
probably dissipate before reaching any TAF sites. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected through tonight with MVFR or IFR possible in
southeast NM and the upper Trans Pecos around 12Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An area of showers that continues from this mornings convection will lift
off to the NE out of the Permian Basin and into the Low Rolling
Plains.  Even though there is above normal moisture indicated by
this mornings sounding with PWATs at 1.20 in, the showers are not
producing any significant rainfalls. As the Pacific NW trough moves
through the area through, it will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of this afternoon and into the early
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Looking at radar,
some scattered cells have already developed from the Davis
Mountains northward through the Permian Basin. The passing of an upper
jet will also help to promote lift to aid in thunderstorm
development. Instability parameters, on the other hand, do not
look overly impressive. Once the upper trough passes later today, the
chances for rain will drop off. An upper ridge will then build heading
into the weekend as temperatures will climb to above normal for
this time of year.

Looking into the extended, the ridge will be flattened by an
approaching trough bringing a cold front into the area sometime
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Do not anticipate any
precipitation with this front, but it will bring more normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 222057
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
357 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A potent upper-level trough will move across the northern Plains
this evening, with a trailing trough axis extending south into
northern Mexico. Large scale ascent associated with this feature is
noted on water vapor imagery across West TX, ending north along the
warm conveyor belt. We`ve had just enough moisture to squeeze out
scattered rain showers across the Permian Basin, east into the
western portions of the Concho Valley and Big Country. Rainfall
amounts have been rather light, with most areas only recording a few
hundredths of an inch. Dewpoints have held in the mid 50s across the
western zones, where light precipitation has been more prevalent
with temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s. However, a few
areas remain in the 60s at this time.

The trough axis will move across the area tonight, bringing an end
to rain chances as a more subsident regime overspreads the area. A
slight chance of showers was retained for most of the area this
evening, then mainly west of a Haskell to San Angelo line after
midnight. Rainfall amounts will remain light. Expect overnight lows
in the mid to upper 50s. Any lingering rain showers should come to
an end late tonight. Cloud cover will gradually thin out during the
day tomorrow with light south winds and temperatures primarily in
the lower 80s.

Johnson

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)

Expecting dry conditions with a warming trend Friday into the
weekend, as an upper level high shifts east across Texas. The
upper high will weaken Sunday and shift southeast over the
northern Gulf of Mexico, as a strong upper trough moves east
across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS. South winds will
increase and become gusty Sunday into Monday with lee side
surface trough development and increased surface pressure
gradient. Monday looks to be the warmest day, as low-level
thermal ridge builds into our area ahead of approaching cold
front. A few locations could have highs around the 90 degree
mark on Monday.

The upper trough is progged to move east across the northern
Plains Monday afternoon and Monday night, sending aforementioned
cold front south into our northern counties by Tuesday morning.
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ with the upper trough and strength
of associated cold front. The ECMWF digs the southern portion of
the trough into North Texas and has a stronger cold frontal
passage on Tuesday, along with some chance of showers and
thunderstorms across our northern counties. While confidence in
a specific solution is not high, favor the weaker GFS version
at this time. Have too much uncertainty to add mentionable PoPs
yet with the cold front. Depending on timing with this front,
temperatures could still reach the lower/mid 80s across the
southern half of our area Tuesday. Temperatures look to be several
degrees cooler, but still above normal for Wednesday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  58  81  59  86  60 /  20   5  10   5   5
San Angelo  56  82  56  86  57 /  20  10   5   5   5
Junction  57  83  55  85  56 /  20  10   5   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222046
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
246 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DOWN TO EL PASO
WILL HELP KICK OFF A FEW EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER THE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST...ENDING ANY CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BORDERLAND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY THE HIGH WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS EAST AS THE UPPER WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS. A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING AFTERNOON BREEZES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MOUNTAIN SHOWER ON
SUNDAY. THIS DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ABOUT CLAYTON TO EL
PASO. CONSIDERABLE CU/TCU HAS DEVELOPED WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH ALONG WITH STRONG CU DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THIS EVENING
EAST OF EL PASO AS A FEW TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN MEXICO JUST
SOUTH OF EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. THE CU GROWTH TO THE WEST
SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. THE TROUGH AND THREAT OF RAIN SHOULD
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING TONIGHT.

MODELS HAVE REMAINED PRETTY CONSISTENT THROUGH SUNDAY. PATTERN
MAINLY DRY AND WARMER BUT MODELS...ESPECIALLY GFS...SHOW A SLIVER OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD AND ENTRAINING INTO SHORT WAVE
SATURDAY OVER ARIZONA. THIS WAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY. DID PUT TOKEN POPS IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE MODELS RUNS TO SEE IF THEY BEGAN PLOTTING QPFS
FOR THIS FEATURE.

AFTER SUNDAY ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. GFS KEEPS STRONG ZONAL
PATTERN OVER THE CWA WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD MEAN DRY WEATHER WITH A BREEZY
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE SAME TROUGH MONDAY AND DRAGGING IT
THROUGH TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD LIKELY MEAN A
WINDY MONDAY AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FOR THE SAC MTNS. BOTH MODELS SHOW
DRY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING AFTER TUESDAY BUT WITH CONTINUED
DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE OF TROUGH/RIDGE PAIRS AND TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24 /00Z...
WEST OF AN ELP-ALM LINE FEW-SCT 040-060 120-150 250.
WINDS GNLY LGT/VRBL BECOMING AFT 18Z 260/07KT.  NIL LGT TURBC ONR
MTNS BLO 15K MSL. EAST OF AN ELP-ALM LINE FROM 00Z-12Z:
SCT-BKN030-050 SCT-BKN100-120 (ISOLD CB/TS TIL 06Z VRBL25G35KT 4SM
-TSRA BKN030CB OVC100). 06Z-12Z SCT-BKN 020-030 E OF LCL MTNS PY
BR/FG 10Z-14Z LOWEST ELV VSBY <3SM. AFT 12Z: SEE DISCUSSION WEST OF
ELP-ALM LINE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A DRIER AND WARMER SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND SOME BREEZY AFTERNOONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIN RH WILL RUN IN THE
45% TO 55% RANGE ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY DROPPING ABOUT 10% OVERALL ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 53  79  55  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           49  77  50  78  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              49  78  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              47  78  49  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  62  36  65  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  76  51  77  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             46  72  49  75  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  46  78  47  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               48  79  48  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      52  79  57  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               44  77  45  79  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            53  80  55  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              50  74  53  79  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  49  80  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            48  78  53  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          52  77  54  78  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           40  78  42  79  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   44  77  47  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                50  78  52  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               51  77  53  79  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 42  68  42  72  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               36  70  38  72  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                38  68  39  71  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 42  73  45  72  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  74  50  75  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               43  77  47  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            42  73  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  47  74  49  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   38  78  40  79  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              35  75  36  78  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  73  50  76  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  81  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 47  80  47  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  81  46  83  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              47  80  50  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/NOVLAN









000
FXUS64 KHGX 222041
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
341 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEAR TERM CONUS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE OF A MIDWESTERN
SURFACE RIDGE FILLING IN ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF A NEW ENGLAND
NOR`EASTER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE LOWER LEVEL NORTH TO
EAST FLOW PATTERN NEEDED TO KEEP MEAN LOWER TO MIDDLE 50 DEW
POINTS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
NOW RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ASSERT A BIT OF AN
INFLUENCE UPON EASTERN TEXAS...IF NOTHING MORE THAN TO FORTIFY
PRECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON MIX OUT WILL HAVE SURFACE
HUMIDITIES FALLING TO UNDER 50% THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PACIFIC NW
ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER AMPLIFIED WESTERN UPPER RIDGING WILL
DIVE DOWN AND DEEPEN A LATE WEEK MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH WHILE THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS CHAIN
OF EVENTS WILL AID IN VEERING EASTERLIES AROUND TO ONSHORE BY THE
COB SUNDAY. THE EASTERN EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE EQUATES TO
NEAR NIL RAIN CHANCES AND MAKES THIS SET OF PRODUCTS PRIMARILY
TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE FORECASTS.

THE REGION MAY GET CLIPPED BY A THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS...IN
TANDEM WITH UPPER RIDGING ENVELOPING TEXAS...WILL VEER MID-LEVEL
WINDS AROUND TO MORE OF A SOUTH OR WEST COMPONENT. FLATTENED MID-
UPPER RIDGING/NORTHERN GULF SURFACE HIGH...WITH WEAK ROCKY MOUNTAIN
TROUGHING...MAY VEER MID-LEVEL WINDS ENOUGH SOUTHWEST TO WARM
SUBSEQUENT DAYS BY A FEW DEGREES. 10-5H THICKNESS VALUES ARE
MODELED TO INCREASE BY AN ADDITIONAL 50 OR 60 METERS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FROM MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL REGULATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMTH...BUT HAVE INCREASED WEEKEND T NUMBERS BY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO SIDE WITH THE LOW STD DEV MEN NUMBERS.
EXTENDED MODEL INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE
EXISTENCE OF A PASSING TROUGH/FROPA HAVE JUST KEPT SLIGHT OR
LOWER POPS IN GRIDS. RECENT TRENDS HAVE FAVORED THE FASTER MORE
SHALLOWER TROUGH PASSAGES (GFS) SO WILL REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON WHEN TO
BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE DISCUSSION. 31

&&

.MARINE...
TD 9 LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE DEPRESSION
MOVES EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
06Z FOR MAINLY ELEVATED SEAS...BUT SEA HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DAMPEN OUT WITH TIME. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A
HALF FOOT OF NORMAL.

A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MORE OR LESS STAY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...
SPEEDS WILL APPROACH SCEC CRITERIA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  83  58  85  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  83  57  83  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  81  66  81  68 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/43/13




000
FXUS64 KFWD 222038
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...IT WILL
DRAG AN ATTENDANT TROUGH WITH IT. THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS
MEAGER...BUT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...
IMPROVING THE CHANCES THAT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE VERIFIED AT THE
SURFACE. DESPITE THE INCREASING LIFT IN THE MID-LEVELS...MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL MEAN RATHER BENIGN CONVECTION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE IN WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS ON FRIDAY
AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S REGION WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE
SATURDAY WHEN A FEW LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH THE 90-DEGREE MARK.
DFW AIRPORT WILL BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH...BUT THE RECORDS AT
WACO ARE LIKELY UNTOUCHABLE. (SEE NUMBERS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.)

THE RIDGE WILL RETURN TO A MORE APPROPRIATE LATITUDE NEAR THE
TROPIC OF CANCER...AND THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL INVADE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE...THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
WHICH WILL DICTATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. HAVE SIDED WITH A
LESS DRAMATIC GFS/GEM CONSENSUS...WHICH STALLS THE BOUNDARY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IT ALSO MEANS
LESS FORCING AND A STRONGER CAP THAN THE ECMWF...AND
CORRESPONDINGLY LESS PRECIP.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...
          FRI OCT 24          SAT OCT 25          SUN OCT 26
      FORECAST / RECORD   FORECAST / RECORD   FORECAST / RECORD

DFW    85 / 90 IN 2003     87 / 89 IN 1992*    86 / 92 IN 1950
WACO   85 / 91 IN 1992*    87 / 94 IN 1992     87 / 94 IN 1992

   * AND IN EARLIER YEARS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS....E TO SE BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AREAS OF VFR CU WILL CONTINUE ALONG A SMALL
TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER MORNING ANALYSIS. A FEW PERIODS OF BKN
VFR CU AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15-18 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAILY MIXING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SWING ACROSS
NORTH TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT DUE TO SUFFICIENT LIFT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER AS
INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY VCSH
OR -SHRA DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT.

FOR THE WACO TAFS...E TO ESE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH AREAS OF SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION AND WITH A BULK OF THE
FORCING CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR...HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF
ANY VICINITY PRECIP. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY STRONGER
BREEZES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
BR/FG OVERNIGHT.

15-BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  79  59  85  63 /  10  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              57  80  56  85  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  74  53  80  58 /  10  20   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  79  56  85  59 /  20  10   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          54  78  54  82  57 /  10  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  79  59  84  63 /  10  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           55  78  54  82  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         56  80  56  84  60 /   5   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  82  57  86  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  81  57  86  60 /  20  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

84/25






000
FXUS64 KFWD 222038
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES...IT WILL
DRAG AN ATTENDANT TROUGH WITH IT. THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS
MEAGER...BUT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...
IMPROVING THE CHANCES THAT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE VERIFIED AT THE
SURFACE. DESPITE THE INCREASING LIFT IN THE MID-LEVELS...MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL MEAN RATHER BENIGN CONVECTION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE IN WESTERN ZONES THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING.

UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO TEXAS ON FRIDAY
AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S REGION WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE
SATURDAY WHEN A FEW LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH THE 90-DEGREE MARK.
DFW AIRPORT WILL BE CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH...BUT THE RECORDS AT
WACO ARE LIKELY UNTOUCHABLE. (SEE NUMBERS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.)

THE RIDGE WILL RETURN TO A MORE APPROPRIATE LATITUDE NEAR THE
TROPIC OF CANCER...AND THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL INVADE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE...THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
WHICH WILL DICTATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. HAVE SIDED WITH A
LESS DRAMATIC GFS/GEM CONSENSUS...WHICH STALLS THE BOUNDARY.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IT ALSO MEANS
LESS FORCING AND A STRONGER CAP THAN THE ECMWF...AND
CORRESPONDINGLY LESS PRECIP.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...
          FRI OCT 24          SAT OCT 25          SUN OCT 26
      FORECAST / RECORD   FORECAST / RECORD   FORECAST / RECORD

DFW    85 / 90 IN 2003     87 / 89 IN 1992*    86 / 92 IN 1950
WACO   85 / 91 IN 1992*    87 / 94 IN 1992     87 / 94 IN 1992

   * AND IN EARLIER YEARS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS....E TO SE BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AREAS OF VFR CU WILL CONTINUE ALONG A SMALL
TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER MORNING ANALYSIS. A FEW PERIODS OF BKN
VFR CU AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15-18 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAILY MIXING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SWING ACROSS
NORTH TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT DUE TO SUFFICIENT LIFT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER AS
INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY VCSH
OR -SHRA DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT.

FOR THE WACO TAFS...E TO ESE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH AREAS OF SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION AND WITH A BULK OF THE
FORCING CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR...HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF
ANY VICINITY PRECIP. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY STRONGER
BREEZES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
BR/FG OVERNIGHT.

15-BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  59  79  59  85  63 /  10  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              57  80  56  85  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  74  53  80  58 /  10  20   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  79  56  85  59 /  20  10   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          54  78  54  82  57 /  10  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  79  59  84  63 /  10  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           55  78  54  82  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         56  80  56  84  60 /   5   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            58  82  57  86  59 /  10  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  81  57  86  60 /  20  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

84/25






000
FXUS64 KEWX 222037
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
337 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL NORTHEAST FROM THE
SERRANIAS DEL BURROS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REACHING THE GROUND AT DRT. POPS ARE THUS
ARTIFICIALLY LOW TO REFLECT THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW
WEAKENING LIFT AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
THE EXTRA CLOUDS TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER OVER
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING INCREASES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TO LEAVE WARMER
THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND MILD LOWS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE GFS WHICH HAS
BACKTRACKED ON THE IDEA OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE WEAK TROUGHING
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO POOL
TOGETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL TRENDS...WILL ONLY SHOW CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  83  62  86  64 /  -   10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  86  58 /  -   10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  60  88  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  60  85  61 /  10  10  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  83  62  86  63 /  30  10   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  81  60  85  62 /  -   10  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  85  58  88  58 /  10  10  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  84  59  87  60 /  -   10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  83  58  87  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  86  63  88  65 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  86  62  89  63 /  -   10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 222037
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
337 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL NORTHEAST FROM THE
SERRANIAS DEL BURROS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH REACHING THE GROUND AT DRT. POPS ARE THUS
ARTIFICIALLY LOW TO REFLECT THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW
WEAKENING LIFT AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SPREADS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THUS CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
THE EXTRA CLOUDS TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER OVER
THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING INCREASES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TO LEAVE WARMER
THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND MILD LOWS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT WILL FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE GFS WHICH HAS
BACKTRACKED ON THE IDEA OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE WEAK TROUGHING
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO POOL
TOGETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...BUT
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL TRENDS...WILL ONLY SHOW CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  83  62  86  64 /  -   10  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  86  58 /  -   10  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  60  88  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  60  85  61 /  10  10  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  83  62  86  63 /  30  10   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  81  60  85  62 /  -   10  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             58  85  58  88  58 /  10  10  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        59  84  59  87  60 /  -   10  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  83  58  87  61 /  -   10  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       63  86  63  88  65 /  10  10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  86  62  89  63 /  -   10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KCRP 222013
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
313 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...PER THE GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY...MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS CURRENTLY
FALLING...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONLY HAVE 5-10 POPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS THE WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE
SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS FARTHER W AND S
ACROSS S TX. ONLY WEATHER BEYOND TODAY MAY BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
FOG THU MORNING BUT WITH VISIBILITIES AT 4SM OR BETTER...SO DO NOT
HAVE FOG IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS...SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MIN
TEMPS. A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD EAST WIND ACROSS S TX THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BECOMING VRB...BUT GENERALLY NE.
THEN A REPEAT IS EXPECTED ON THU AND THU NIGHT. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...A MODERATE E TO NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THU AND THU NIGHT. A MOD RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER IF WINDS DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED...THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE LOWER ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE...BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER LVL RIDGE BEGINS FLATTENING SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER LVL TROUGH
AXIS STARTS DIGGING DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND SENDING A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO TEXAS. MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON TIMING AND LOCATION
BEFORE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE SWIFTLY
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS JUST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED AND THEN WASHING OUT IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. ALSO...THE GFS IS NO LONGER SHOWING THE SPORADIC
STRONG LOW/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE GULF AS IT WAS TRYING
TO SPIN UP IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...RATHER KEEPING A WEAK/BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. FOR THE TIME
KEPT POPS OUT OF THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD
ISOLATED CHANCE AT LEAST FOR THE DAY 8 PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES BASED ON TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT GETS
CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  84  64  84  63  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          60  85  59  86  60  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            68  86  66  88  65  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             64  86  62  87  62  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          69  82  67  83  66  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           65  86  63  89  63  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        65  86  64  86  62  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       72  83  69  82  68  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KLUB 222011
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
311 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WEAKENING CHANNELED VORTICITY CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS SWINGING
THROUGH JUST BEHIND. COMBINED LIFT AND PARTIAL THINNING OF CLOUDS
THUS A TOUCH OF WARMING APPEAR TO BE LEADING TO SOMEWHAT RENEWED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO EASTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING. ANYWAY...THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER THROUGH EVENING FAVORING EASTERN AREAS.
AFTERWARDS WITH ANY CLEARING ON THE CAPROCK ESPECIALLY THERE WILL BE
A RISK OF FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE FURTHER WHILE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
SCOURING FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS WAVE. DEEPER DRYING IS EXPECTED
WITH DOMINANT MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY. LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO TURN SUNNY AND WARMER WITH LITTLE
CONTENTION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER WEST TEXAS LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY BREEZES AND FULL INSOLATION WILL PROMOTE A NICE FALL
WARM UP...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THESE WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND BUT WITH A MODEST UPTICK IN WINDS AS WESTERN TROUGHINESS
TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY. ANOTHER WARM
AND BREEZY DAY WILL KICK OFF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODEST COOLING
WILL OCCUR AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS FALL MORE NOTABLY WITH THE
APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWEST
AND SHARPEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS SLOWER...DEEPER SOLUTION COMES
TO FRUITION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF STORMS TO AT LEAST THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER WITH THIS EARLY WEEK WAVE AND WOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING
AN EXPLICIT PRECIPITATION MENTION PENDING INCREASED MODEL-TO-
MODEL CONSISTENCY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR FOR
LATE OCTOBER. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS ITERATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  78  49  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  79  51  85  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  78  52  84  53 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     51  78  54  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  78  55  84  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  78  54  83  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  78  55  84  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  83  55  89  57 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          55  80  57  86  57 /  30  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  81  57  86  58 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23






000
FXUS64 KBRO 221958
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
258 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500 MB FIELDS SHOW AN
ELONGATED TROUGH DIGGING OVER WEST TX AND NORTHWEST MEXICO TODAY.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL TX LATER TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY
TOMORROW. THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CONV IF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS WOULD HOLD IN PLACE. HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE STRONG
ISOLD CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DIED OUT OVER
SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY. KBRO RADAR SHOWS SCT CONV FIRING SOUTH OF
THE RIVER MOVING WEST OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. LAPS CAPE DATA SHOWS
SOME DECENT INSTABILITY REMAINING POOLED JUST OVER THE RGV AND
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF COASTLINE OF MEXICO. SO
ISOLD CONV WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO SOME LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION. WILL THEN GO NEAR ZERO POPS FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
EVENING IN LINE WITH MAV AND MET NUMBERS.

THE WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS AS THE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS DROP OFF. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO AS DIURNAL HEATING WILL TEND TO WARM UP
TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON PRETTY NICELY.

WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL EFFECTS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY THEN MOVE ACROSS
TEXAS SATURDAY THEN BE FLATTENED SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY AND EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BEGINNING SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND CAPPED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW SO FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE CFW FOR THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES REMAIN PRETTY HIGH FOR THE SPI JETTIES. THE
STRONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF TD NINE...THE OLD STATIONARY
FRONT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STRONG PGF
WILL THEN START TO WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW
THE ELEVATED GULF SWELLS TO DECREASE. REPORTS FROM BUOY020
CURRENTLY SHOW THE GULF CONDITIONS HOLDING IN SCEC CRITERIA. SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SCA CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. NO SCEC OR SCA NEEDED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH LITTLE IF
ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  72  83  69  83 /  20  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          69  84  68  84 /  20  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            68  84  65  84 /  20  10  10   0
MCALLEN              69  86  66  86 /  20  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  87  65  87 /  20  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  82  73  83 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KAMA 221947
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
247 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES GIVEN THE WET
GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID DAY THURSDAY...
LEAVING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND.

A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TO ALLOW A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE PLAINS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER IT WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE REGION OR NOT. MODELS ARE AGAIN AT ODDS ON HOW STRONG THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE MODELS START TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                53  77  52  85  53 /  10   5   5   0   0
BEAVER OK                  52  81  52  87  53 /  20   5   5   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              49  78  50  85  49 /   0   0   5   0   0
BORGER TX                  56  80  55  87  55 /  10   5   5   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              52  80  50  86  51 /   5   5   5   0   0
CANYON TX                  53  80  49  85  52 /  10   5   5   0   0
CLARENDON TX               53  79  54  87  56 /  20   5   5   0   0
DALHART TX                 50  79  45  85  49 /   5   0   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  52  79  50  88  52 /   5   5   5   0   0
HEREFORD TX                51  81  48  85  51 /  10   5   5   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                55  80  51  87  56 /  20   5   5   0   0
PAMPA TX                   52  78  53  85  55 /  20   5   5   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                54  81  52  88  56 /  30   5   5   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              57  81  54  89  58 /  30   5   5   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15





000
FXUS64 KMAF 221936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
An area of showers that continues from this mornings convection will lift
off to the NE out of the Permian Basin and into the Low Rolling
Plains.  Even though there is above normal moisture indicated by
this mornings sounding with PWATs at 1.20 in, the showers are not
producing any significant rainfalls. As the Pacific NW trough moves
through the area through, it will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of this afternoon and into the early
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Looking at radar,
some scattered cells have already developed from the Davis
Mountains northward through the Permian Basin. The passing of an upper
jet will also help to promote lift to aid in thunderstorm
development. Instability parameters, on the other hand, do not
look overly impressive. Once the upper trough passes later today, the
chances for rain will drop off. An upper ridge will then build heading
into the weekend as temperatures will climb to above normal for
this time of year.

Looking into the extended, the ridge will be flattened by an
approaching trough bringing a cold front into the area sometime
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Do not anticipate any
precipitation with this front, but it will bring more normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  81  57  82  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              55  81  59  85  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                54  81  53  83  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  59  80  61  83  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  81  59  85  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  76  58  77  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  80  54  82  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   48  76  47  78  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  81  58  85  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  55  81  58  85  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    54  84  56  86  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/06

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 221846 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
146 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE STRONG CONVECTION FOR EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
DIED OUT OVER CAMERON COUNTY. KBRO RADAR SHOWS SCT CONV FIRING
SOUTH OF THE RIVER MOVING WEST OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. LAPS CAPE
DATA SHOWS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY REMAIN POOLED JUST OVER THE
RGV AND EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF COASTLINE OF MEXICO.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS GRADUALLY ERODE AWAY THE DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE VALUES OVER DEEP SOUTH TX FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A DRIER
LOW LEVEL FLOW BUILDS IN FROM NORTH. ISOLD CONV WILL STILL BE A
THREAT FOR THE LOWER RGV AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO MENTION
ANY TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUPS. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION SOME VCSH
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIODS. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME DECENT CU FIELDS LINGERING OVER THE AREA AS THE DAYTIME
HEATING INTERACTS WITH THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE AREA.
THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS CLOSE TO KBRO WILL BE IMPACTING
THE TERMINAL WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS. MOST OF THE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED SOUTH OVER THE GULF WATERS. MENTIONED TEMPO
GROUP FOR THIS CONVECTION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY FROM THE EAST. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT NORTHEAST FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE CONCENTRATED SOUTHWARD AND A DRY AIRMASS TOWARDS N
TEXAS. MEANWHILE...IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMS A TROUGH ACROSS
THE DESERT SW LIFTS NE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NE OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL KEEP A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK GRADIENT AT
THE SURFACE WHICH IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL AVAILABLE ACROSS THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AS OF THE 00Z KBRO SOUNDING INDICATED 2.0 INCHES. GFS
STILL SHOWS IN THE MID LAYERS DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE OF AROUND 70
PERCENT AVAILABLE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECT 30 PERCENT CHANCE RIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO LOW
80S WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A GRADUAL NORTHEAST DRY AIR FILTERING
INTO THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TONIGHT. STILL DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MIGRATE WEST
SO THERE STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
AND FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY WITH MORE OF THE DRY AIR MASS ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE CWA. STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL AID FOR MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW AREAS COULD
SEE PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY FROM BROOKS
COUNTY TO NORTHERN HIDALGO. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE
MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE CWA AND LOW 70S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DRIER AIR IS NOTED ALOFT IN THE BUFF SOUNDING AND
CROSS SECTIONS WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS BUT NO
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE MID
80S ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH OUT THE DAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURS NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EVEN AS A LONGWAVE 500MB TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PROVIDE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP ON
ANY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX TUESDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...BUOY020 HOLDS STEADY SCEC CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS GUSTING
CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT THIS SAME PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS WE KEEP
AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TODAY. THIS IS DUE TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 OVER NORTHEAST
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH REALLY VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS KEEPING
AN EASTERLY FETCH AND MODERATE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. DO NOT
EXPECT SCA AT THIS TIME...AS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL SOON MOVE
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
TROPICAL STORM KEPT WINDS AND SEAS MODERATE FOR TODAY. ON THURSDAY...
WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NE AND
FILTERING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. THERE IS A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT AS THE SWELLS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY COMBINED WITH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. THIS COULD PRODUCE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. BY THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  72  85  71  83 /  20  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          70  86  69  83 /  20  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            67  86  68  84 /  20  10  10   0
MCALLEN              66  88  67  86 /  20  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  86  67  87 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  84  73  81 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ






000
FXUS64 KAMA 221756
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1256 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON IN TANDEM WITH
ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE
MAIN SWATH OF RAIN WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT IN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS HAVE GENERATED SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP WITHIN THE
REMNANT MOISTURE PLUME. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

KB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...IFR CIGS INITIALLY AT KAMA ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KAMA...BUT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD AT KDHT AND
KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
AGL. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF ALL TERMINALS...BUT
SOME ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WEST OF THIS COULD CLIP KAMA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING
SKIES...AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. STILL TOUGH TO SAY HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT
WILL TAKE THEM INTO THE IFR RANGE FOR NOW.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE NEAR
TERM WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST
MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW
AS IT CROSSES THE PANHANDLES. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH SREF ENSEMBLE SPREAD BEING FAIRLY SMALL. EARLY IN THE
DAY LEFT EXIT REGION OF QUICK MOVING UPPER JET STREAK AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN MOISTENING COLUMN SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. COMPARISON OF CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SHOWS SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE MESOSCALE WITH
PLACEMENT/MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION. THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR AN
UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY ON WHERE TO PLACE HIGHER QPF VALUES AND
FELT MORE COMFORTABLE SOMEWHAT BROAD BRUSHING AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. PWAT
VALUES RISE TO AT LEAST 2SD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND SO LOCALIZED NEAR ONE HALF INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
UPPER FORCING QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST LATE TOMORROW AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING OF THE END OF PRECIPITATION TO BE SLIGHTLY QUICKER AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES CONSIDERABLY DURING THE EVENING. ANOTHER CONCERN
IS FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. LATER
FORECASTS MAY HIGHLIGHT THE FOG POTENTIAL ONCE IT BECOMES CLEAR WHICH
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN THE LONG TERM SO FELT COMFORTABLE WITH A
CONSENSUS/BLEND APPROACH THROUGH SUNDAY. 590+ DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH ON MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES BY
THIS TIME WITH GFS CONTINUING TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF COLD FRONT
AND COOLER AIR MASS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION WOULD NECESSITATE A DRY
FORECAST AS LIMITED MOISTURE TO BEGIN WITH GETS SHIFTED QUICKLY EAST
INTO OKLAHOMA AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK FORCING. LATER FORECASTS MAY
NEED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY IF IS
BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT THE SLOWER/DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOST
VIABLE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 221756
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1256 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON IN TANDEM WITH
ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE
MAIN SWATH OF RAIN WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT IN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS HAVE GENERATED SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY...ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP WITHIN THE
REMNANT MOISTURE PLUME. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

KB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...IFR CIGS INITIALLY AT KAMA ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AT KAMA...BUT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD AT KDHT AND
KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
AGL. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF ALL TERMINALS...BUT
SOME ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WEST OF THIS COULD CLIP KAMA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING
SKIES...AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. STILL TOUGH TO SAY HOW LOW VSBYS WILL DROP...BUT
WILL TAKE THEM INTO THE IFR RANGE FOR NOW.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CONCERNS/CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE NEAR
TERM WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WV LOOP AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST
MOVING EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW
AS IT CROSSES THE PANHANDLES. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH SREF ENSEMBLE SPREAD BEING FAIRLY SMALL. EARLY IN THE
DAY LEFT EXIT REGION OF QUICK MOVING UPPER JET STREAK AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN MOISTENING COLUMN SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. COMPARISON OF CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS SHOWS SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE MESOSCALE WITH
PLACEMENT/MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION. THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR AN
UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY ON WHERE TO PLACE HIGHER QPF VALUES AND
FELT MORE COMFORTABLE SOMEWHAT BROAD BRUSHING AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. PWAT
VALUES RISE TO AT LEAST 2SD ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND SO LOCALIZED NEAR ONE HALF INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
UPPER FORCING QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST LATE TOMORROW AND HAVE ADJUSTED
TIMING OF THE END OF PRECIPITATION TO BE SLIGHTLY QUICKER AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES CONSIDERABLY DURING THE EVENING. ANOTHER CONCERN
IS FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. LATER
FORECASTS MAY HIGHLIGHT THE FOG POTENTIAL ONCE IT BECOMES CLEAR WHICH
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN THE LONG TERM SO FELT COMFORTABLE WITH A
CONSENSUS/BLEND APPROACH THROUGH SUNDAY. 590+ DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. HAVE CONTINUED THE UPWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER/DEEPER TROUGH ON MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES BY
THIS TIME WITH GFS CONTINUING TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF COLD FRONT
AND COOLER AIR MASS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION WOULD NECESSITATE A DRY
FORECAST AS LIMITED MOISTURE TO BEGIN WITH GETS SHIFTED QUICKLY EAST
INTO OKLAHOMA AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK FORCING. LATER FORECASTS MAY
NEED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY IF IS
BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT THE SLOWER/DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION IS MOST
VIABLE.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15






000
FXUS64 KMAF 221755
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1255 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 22/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers NE of KMAF will continue progressing NE. Elsewhere skies
are expected to become VFR areawide by 22/21Z. Light winds and
mostly clear skies will set up a nice radiative fog event by
sunrise, as indicated by model BUFR soundings. Shallow MVFR vsbys
in fog are expected areawide with localized IFR vsbys possible for
a few hours. Vsbys could fall to LIFR category at KHOB as this
terminal`s vsby seems to crater for some unknown reason. The fog
will lift quickly after daybreak with variable surface winds and
VFR conditions...ideal GA flying weather.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The 12Z aviation discussion can be found below.

AVIATION...

Scattered showers continue across the area this morning, and the
chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through early
this evening, along and east of a KHOB-KPEQ-KPRS line. Have
maintained -SHRA mention for KHOB, and introduced -SHRA for the
first couple hours of the valid period for KMAF due to an area of
showers currently moving northward through the Permian Basin.
While flight conditions should largely remain VFR, areas of low
clouds could result in transient MVFR conditions, mainly prior to
18Z today. Expect ceilings to scatter out between 00-03Z this
evening, and gradually clear through the end of the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the PacNW trough from 24 hrs ago now over MT, and
extending thru the Rockies and into the desert SW, and set to move
thru West Texas/SE NM later today.  Closer to home, area radars show
spotty SHRA across the area, in line w/what`s occurred over the past
24 hrs.  MPE amounts over the past 24 hrs suggest models were
somewhat overwrought w/this event, although the main trough has yet
to pass thru.  Buffer soundings keep PWATs near 2 STD DEVs above
normal this morning, w/the column saturated to H5, but model QPFs
are not impressive.  Neither are instability parameters, w/forecast
sbcapes generally below 1000 J/kg.  Models bring the upper jet thru
the area this morning and afternoon, w/the left front exit region running
along the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, so lift may be a bit better
there.  Still, all this suggests leaning toward a low-pop, low-qpf
scenario, w/more SHRA than TSRA.  POPs will taper off to the SE and
S thru Thu morning as the tail-end of the trough exits the region.
An upper-lvl ridge then builds in from the west into the weekend,
then gets flattened SE as a broad, west coast trough approaches.
This feature is forecast to move thru the region Monday or so,
dropping a cold front into the area late Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

W/abundant cloud cover, saturated columns, and persistently-high sfc
dewpoints, diurnal spreads on temps will remain small in the
short-term, which would favor leaning towards the GFS MOS over the
NAM.  W/upper ridging expected, the long term favors the slightly
warmer GFS over the ECMWF.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 221755
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1255 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 22/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers NE of KMAF will continue progressing NE. Elsewhere skies
are expected to become VFR areawide by 22/21Z. Light winds and
mostly clear skies will set up a nice radiative fog event by
sunrise, as indicated by model BUFR soundings. Shallow MVFR vsbys
in fog are expected areawide with localized IFR vsbys possible for
a few hours. Vsbys could fall to LIFR category at KHOB as this
terminal`s vsby seems to crater for some unknown reason. The fog
will lift quickly after daybreak with variable surface winds and
VFR conditions...ideal GA flying weather.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The 12Z aviation discussion can be found below.

AVIATION...

Scattered showers continue across the area this morning, and the
chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through early
this evening, along and east of a KHOB-KPEQ-KPRS line. Have
maintained -SHRA mention for KHOB, and introduced -SHRA for the
first couple hours of the valid period for KMAF due to an area of
showers currently moving northward through the Permian Basin.
While flight conditions should largely remain VFR, areas of low
clouds could result in transient MVFR conditions, mainly prior to
18Z today. Expect ceilings to scatter out between 00-03Z this
evening, and gradually clear through the end of the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the PacNW trough from 24 hrs ago now over MT, and
extending thru the Rockies and into the desert SW, and set to move
thru West Texas/SE NM later today.  Closer to home, area radars show
spotty SHRA across the area, in line w/what`s occurred over the past
24 hrs.  MPE amounts over the past 24 hrs suggest models were
somewhat overwrought w/this event, although the main trough has yet
to pass thru.  Buffer soundings keep PWATs near 2 STD DEVs above
normal this morning, w/the column saturated to H5, but model QPFs
are not impressive.  Neither are instability parameters, w/forecast
sbcapes generally below 1000 J/kg.  Models bring the upper jet thru
the area this morning and afternoon, w/the left front exit region running
along the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, so lift may be a bit better
there.  Still, all this suggests leaning toward a low-pop, low-qpf
scenario, w/more SHRA than TSRA.  POPs will taper off to the SE and
S thru Thu morning as the tail-end of the trough exits the region.
An upper-lvl ridge then builds in from the west into the weekend,
then gets flattened SE as a broad, west coast trough approaches.
This feature is forecast to move thru the region Monday or so,
dropping a cold front into the area late Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

W/abundant cloud cover, saturated columns, and persistently-high sfc
dewpoints, diurnal spreads on temps will remain small in the
short-term, which would favor leaning towards the GFS MOS over the
NAM.  W/upper ridging expected, the long term favors the slightly
warmer GFS over the ECMWF.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KFWD 221751
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS....E TO SE BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AREAS OF VFR CU WILL CONTINUE ALONG A SMALL
TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER MORNING ANALYSIS. A FEW PERIODS OF BKN
VFR CU AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15-18 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAILY MIXING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SWING ACROSS
NORTH TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT DUE TO SUFFICIENT LIFT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER AS
INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY VCSH
OR -SHRA DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT.

FOR THE WACO TAFS...E TO ESE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH AREAS OF SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION AND WITH A BULK OF THE
FORCING CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR...HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF
ANY VICINITY PRECIP. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY STRONGER
BREEZES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
BR/FG OVERNIGHT.

15-BAIN

&&

.UPDATE...
RADAR ECHOES WITH BAND OF MID CLOUDS IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IS
LIKELY VIRGA. ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR BENEATH THIS WEAK LIFT IS LESS
FORMIDABLE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...DO NOT EXPECT THAT ANY DROPS
WILL REACH THE GROUND TO THE EAST OF CURRENT ECHOES.

ONGOING ACTIVITY IN WEST TEXAS WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
SLIP INTO FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
WEST...CLOSER TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EJECTING INTO OKLAHOMA. AS
THE FLOW VEERS THIS EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY WORK
THEIR WAY FARTHER EAST...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE MID-LEVELS MEANS SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MODE...AND THE MEAGER LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE.

REMOVED MORNING FOG AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERALL. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM CONDITIONS TO NORTH TEXAS
ON THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN THE WEST. THE GULF WILL FINALLY FULLY OPEN UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WARM AIR
FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP A STOUT CAP
IN PLACE. FOR NOW WE WILL INCLUDE ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  61  80  62  83 /   0  10  20  10  10
WACO, TX              83  57  82  56  84 /   5   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             78  53  74  55  79 /   0  10  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            82  57  80  58  83 /   5  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          80  55  80  55  84 /   0  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            81  61  80  63  82 /   0  10  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           80  56  80  56  82 /   0  10  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         81  57  80  58  84 /   0   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            84  57  80  56  84 /  10   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  80  57  87 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 221751
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS....E TO SE BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AREAS OF VFR CU WILL CONTINUE ALONG A SMALL
TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER MORNING ANALYSIS. A FEW PERIODS OF BKN
VFR CU AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15-18 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAILY MIXING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SWING ACROSS
NORTH TX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT DUE TO SUFFICIENT LIFT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER AS
INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY VCSH
OR -SHRA DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT.

FOR THE WACO TAFS...E TO ESE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH AREAS OF SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION AND WITH A BULK OF THE
FORCING CLOSER TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR...HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF
ANY VICINITY PRECIP. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY STRONGER
BREEZES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
BR/FG OVERNIGHT.

15-BAIN

&&

.UPDATE...
RADAR ECHOES WITH BAND OF MID CLOUDS IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IS
LIKELY VIRGA. ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR BENEATH THIS WEAK LIFT IS LESS
FORMIDABLE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...DO NOT EXPECT THAT ANY DROPS
WILL REACH THE GROUND TO THE EAST OF CURRENT ECHOES.

ONGOING ACTIVITY IN WEST TEXAS WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
SLIP INTO FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
WEST...CLOSER TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EJECTING INTO OKLAHOMA. AS
THE FLOW VEERS THIS EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY WORK
THEIR WAY FARTHER EAST...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE MID-LEVELS MEANS SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MODE...AND THE MEAGER LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE.

REMOVED MORNING FOG AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERALL. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM CONDITIONS TO NORTH TEXAS
ON THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN THE WEST. THE GULF WILL FINALLY FULLY OPEN UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WARM AIR
FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP A STOUT CAP
IN PLACE. FOR NOW WE WILL INCLUDE ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  61  80  62  83 /   0  10  20  10  10
WACO, TX              83  57  82  56  84 /   5   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             78  53  74  55  79 /   0  10  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            82  57  80  58  83 /   5  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          80  55  80  55  84 /   0  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            81  61  80  63  82 /   0  10  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           80  56  80  56  82 /   0  10  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         81  57  80  58  84 /   0   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            84  57  80  56  84 /  10   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  80  57  87 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KLUB 221731
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
THIRD OF OUR AREA WHILE MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LEFT TO THE
WEST. STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT LIFT SPREADING IN AND CANT CLEAR
SHOWERS YET BUT PLAN AN UPDATE TO SUPPORT THE ABOVE TRENDS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN PRECIPITATION PASSING THROUGH KCDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAINING NEAR KLBB BUT TOO LOW COVERAGE CURRENTLY TO INCLUDE IN
TAF THOUGH WILL UPDATE CERTAINLY IF THEY CLOSE IN FURTHER.
OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERAL IMPROVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING LEADS TO POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG
LATER TONIGHT. THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE DOMINANT VFR. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE KLBB TERMINAL AS THIS
IS BEING WRITTEN. WHILE THE WFO CEILOMETER INDICATED A BRIEF DROP
IN CEILINGS TO AROUND 900 FT...SUCH LOWERING HAS NOT BEEN SEEN AT
THE AERODROME. THIS BAND SHOULD AFFECT KCDS LATER THIS MORNING AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING THOUGH TIMING REMAINS NEBULOUS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CURVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SRN SK THENCE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THEN SWWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TODAY.  BROAD AREA OF FAVORABLE DIV-Q
FIELDS FOR LIFT IS MOVING IN FROM ERN NM WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ONGOING.  THIS AREA OF LIFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE CWFA MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY BEFORE SLIDING INTO N TX.

DATA SUGGEST THAT ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.  WHILE AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVERLY HIGH...GOOD COVERAGE APPEARS TO INDICATE INCREASED POPS AND
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LIKELY CENTRAL THIS MORNING AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THE TROUGH...SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY SETS IN THUS
HELPING TO DRY OUT THE MID LEVELS AND BRINGING A QUICK END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  AT THIS POINT...THE ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE
DONE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.  GIVEN MAIN LIFT WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HAVE PULLED POPS POST 06Z.

LONG TERM...
THE UA TROUGH THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PROVIDE THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WITH WELCOMED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY...WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES
PLACE COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING UA RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE
TRANSLATION OF THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY THRU
EARLY WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN DRYER CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHT
FIELDS THUS SUGGESTING WARMER TEMPS ARE IN STORE /LOWER TO UPPER
80S/. BY SUNDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE FA THANKS TO AN BROAD LOW MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS WHICH AID IN
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 80S.

THEREAFTER...LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DIFFER WRT TO THE EXACT TRAJECTORY
OF THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. THE GFS PROPAGATES THE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL NEED TIME TO
MOISTEN UP WHICH APPEARS TO OCCUR BY TUESDAY NIGHT PER THE
GFS...WITH LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE EXTREME LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE DISTURBANCE AND
THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP MORE SO ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN ITS DEPICTION OF A QUICKER RECOVERY IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING. MAINTAINING BELOW MENTIONABLE 10-13 PERCENT
POPS OFF THE CAPROCK APPEARS VALID AT THIS TIME. WHAT IS AGREED UPON
IS THE RETURN OF BELOW NORM TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  78  50  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         55  79  52  85  52 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  78  52  83  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  78  53  83  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  79  54  84  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   51  78  54  83  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  79  54  84  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  82  58  87  57 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          57  81  57  86  58 /  30  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  82  58  86  59 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05






000
FXUS64 KLUB 221731
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
THIRD OF OUR AREA WHILE MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LEFT TO THE
WEST. STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT LIFT SPREADING IN AND CANT CLEAR
SHOWERS YET BUT PLAN AN UPDATE TO SUPPORT THE ABOVE TRENDS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN PRECIPITATION PASSING THROUGH KCDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAINING NEAR KLBB BUT TOO LOW COVERAGE CURRENTLY TO INCLUDE IN
TAF THOUGH WILL UPDATE CERTAINLY IF THEY CLOSE IN FURTHER.
OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERAL IMPROVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE ENOUGH COOLING LEADS TO POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG
LATER TONIGHT. THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE DOMINANT VFR. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE KLBB TERMINAL AS THIS
IS BEING WRITTEN. WHILE THE WFO CEILOMETER INDICATED A BRIEF DROP
IN CEILINGS TO AROUND 900 FT...SUCH LOWERING HAS NOT BEEN SEEN AT
THE AERODROME. THIS BAND SHOULD AFFECT KCDS LATER THIS MORNING AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING THOUGH TIMING REMAINS NEBULOUS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CURVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SRN SK THENCE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THEN SWWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TODAY.  BROAD AREA OF FAVORABLE DIV-Q
FIELDS FOR LIFT IS MOVING IN FROM ERN NM WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ONGOING.  THIS AREA OF LIFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE CWFA MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY BEFORE SLIDING INTO N TX.

DATA SUGGEST THAT ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.  WHILE AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVERLY HIGH...GOOD COVERAGE APPEARS TO INDICATE INCREASED POPS AND
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LIKELY CENTRAL THIS MORNING AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THE TROUGH...SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY SETS IN THUS
HELPING TO DRY OUT THE MID LEVELS AND BRINGING A QUICK END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  AT THIS POINT...THE ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE
DONE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.  GIVEN MAIN LIFT WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HAVE PULLED POPS POST 06Z.

LONG TERM...
THE UA TROUGH THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PROVIDE THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WITH WELCOMED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY...WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES
PLACE COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING UA RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE
TRANSLATION OF THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY THRU
EARLY WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN DRYER CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHT
FIELDS THUS SUGGESTING WARMER TEMPS ARE IN STORE /LOWER TO UPPER
80S/. BY SUNDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE FA THANKS TO AN BROAD LOW MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS WHICH AID IN
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 80S.

THEREAFTER...LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DIFFER WRT TO THE EXACT TRAJECTORY
OF THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. THE GFS PROPAGATES THE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL NEED TIME TO
MOISTEN UP WHICH APPEARS TO OCCUR BY TUESDAY NIGHT PER THE
GFS...WITH LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE EXTREME LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE DISTURBANCE AND
THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP MORE SO ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN ITS DEPICTION OF A QUICKER RECOVERY IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING. MAINTAINING BELOW MENTIONABLE 10-13 PERCENT
POPS OFF THE CAPROCK APPEARS VALID AT THIS TIME. WHAT IS AGREED UPON
IS THE RETURN OF BELOW NORM TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  78  50  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         55  79  52  85  52 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  78  52  83  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  78  53  83  54 /  20  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  79  54  84  56 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   51  78  54  83  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  79  54  84  55 /  20  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  82  58  87  57 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          57  81  57  86  58 /  30  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  82  58  86  59 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05






000
FXUS64 KEWX 221729 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATE...FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BKN TO OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
AS THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT THE I-35 TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE A MID LEVEL BKN
CLOUD DECK SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. TOWARDS SUNRISE LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH MVFR CIGS FROM
11Z- 18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY NEAR 10
KNOTS AFTER 18Z THEN BACK TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 23/01Z. E/SE
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 23/15Z TO NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...SO WE HAVE INCLUDED BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING AT KDRT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPOTTY.
FOR NOW... WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT
KDRT. ELSEWHERE... MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AT 10KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE FAR WEST SPREADING NORTH
AND EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.
THE LIGHT ECHOES ARE COMING FROM MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SO AM
NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN HITTING THE AUTOMATED STATIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL NOT HIT THE GROUND...BUT
A FEW LOCATIONS OUT WEST WILL IN FACT SEE SOME WET ROADS DURING
THE PREDAWN-EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS LIGHT RAIN IS THE RESULT OF
DEEPER MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE RIO GRANDE THE
LAST FEW DAYS AND A WEAK UPPER TROF THAT STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER
ROCKIES DOWN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE WEAK NATURE OF THE LIFT
WILL ONLY CAUSE LOW POP OUT WEST TODAY AND THAT WILL PUSH A BIT
FARTHER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AND PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIKE WE HAVE
SEE THE PAST FEW DAYS THE CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE MAINLY OVER THE
WEST WHILE EASTERN AREAS CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A BIT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE TROF
PASSING OVERHEAD. WILL BE STICKING FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS
TODAY...TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE LOW POP WILL END
ACROSS ALL THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS THE TROF MOVES EAST BRINGING IN
NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT...IT WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO MOVE OVER TEXAS AND
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN SOME SPOTS. NOT CALLING FOR ANY RECORD HIGHS AT THIS
POINT...BUT IT COULD GET CLOSE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ONLY BE AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS
BEFORE THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT...LEE SIDE TROFFING DEVELOPS...AND WE
GET A STRONGER SOUTH WIND. THIS WILL IN TURN LIKELY BRING BACK
SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS STARTING MAYBE AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING
BUT MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN WANTING TO TRY TO
PUSH DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. THE LATEST
GFS HAS BACK OFF A BIT ON GETTING A FRONT THROUGH HERE...WHILE THE
EUROPEAN BRINGS IT THROUGH ON TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT POP DURING THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              82  62  83  62  86 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  82  56  86 /  -   -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  60  85  60  88 /  -   -   10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  59  84 /  -   10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  65  83  62  86 /  20  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  59  81  59  85 /  -   -   10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  58  85  56  88 /  -   10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  59  84  58  87 /  -   -   10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  59  83  58  86 /  -   -   10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  63  86  63  88 /  -   10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  62  86  61  88 /  -   10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 221729 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATE...FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND BKN TO OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
AS THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT THE I-35 TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE A MID LEVEL BKN
CLOUD DECK SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. TOWARDS SUNRISE LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH MVFR CIGS FROM
11Z- 18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY NEAR 10
KNOTS AFTER 18Z THEN BACK TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 23/01Z. E/SE
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 23/15Z TO NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...SO WE HAVE INCLUDED BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING AT KDRT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPOTTY.
FOR NOW... WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT
KDRT. ELSEWHERE... MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AT 10KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE FAR WEST SPREADING NORTH
AND EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.
THE LIGHT ECHOES ARE COMING FROM MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SO AM
NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN HITTING THE AUTOMATED STATIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL NOT HIT THE GROUND...BUT
A FEW LOCATIONS OUT WEST WILL IN FACT SEE SOME WET ROADS DURING
THE PREDAWN-EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS LIGHT RAIN IS THE RESULT OF
DEEPER MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE RIO GRANDE THE
LAST FEW DAYS AND A WEAK UPPER TROF THAT STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER
ROCKIES DOWN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE WEAK NATURE OF THE LIFT
WILL ONLY CAUSE LOW POP OUT WEST TODAY AND THAT WILL PUSH A BIT
FARTHER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AND PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIKE WE HAVE
SEE THE PAST FEW DAYS THE CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE MAINLY OVER THE
WEST WHILE EASTERN AREAS CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A BIT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE TROF
PASSING OVERHEAD. WILL BE STICKING FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS
TODAY...TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE LOW POP WILL END
ACROSS ALL THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS THE TROF MOVES EAST BRINGING IN
NW FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT...IT WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO MOVE OVER TEXAS AND
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN SOME SPOTS. NOT CALLING FOR ANY RECORD HIGHS AT THIS
POINT...BUT IT COULD GET CLOSE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ONLY BE AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS
BEFORE THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT...LEE SIDE TROFFING DEVELOPS...AND WE
GET A STRONGER SOUTH WIND. THIS WILL IN TURN LIKELY BRING BACK
SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS STARTING MAYBE AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING
BUT MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN WANTING TO TRY TO
PUSH DOWN A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. THE LATEST
GFS HAS BACK OFF A BIT ON GETTING A FRONT THROUGH HERE...WHILE THE
EUROPEAN BRINGS IT THROUGH ON TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT POP DURING THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              82  62  83  62  86 /  -   -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  83  57  82  56  86 /  -   -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  60  85  60  88 /  -   -   10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  59  82  59  84 /  -   10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           80  65  83  62  86 /  20  20  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  59  81  59  85 /  -   -   10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  58  85  56  88 /  -   10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  59  84  58  87 /  -   -   10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  59  83  58  86 /  -   -   10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  63  86  63  88 /  -   10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  62  86  61  88 /  -   10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221722
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1222 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A CU FIELD DVLPG ACROSS S TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERALLY BE AT VFR LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY`S TOWARD THU MORNING FOR VCT...ALI AND LRD.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS LRD
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF DUE
TO THE ISOLD NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. WEAK TO MOD EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME VRB...BUT GENERALLY
NE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY NO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER GOES SOUNDER SHOWS MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND MODELS PROG INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. DUE
TO MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 20
PERCENT. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS DRG THE TAF PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR DRG THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE
SRN SECTIONS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SWRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN OWING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG DRG THE 08-12Z THU PERIOD. LGT
GENERALLY EAST WIND EXCEPT FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WL RETAIN ISOLD CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN CWA TODAY OWING TO SUFFICIENT MSTR...YET
NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT CAPE WL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. CONCUR WITH THE
GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH PROG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (700-300MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 200MB JET DYNAMICS). YET...NO SIGNIFICANT
PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THAT PERIOD OWING TO
INSUFFICENT MSTR (GFS/NAM PWAT VALUES BELOW NORMAL.)

MARINE...ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WL RESULT
IN SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY/TNGT. WL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF THE NEW MOON AND EXPECTED SFC WIND VELOCITIES. (ANTICIPATE THAT
SWELL PERIODS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7 SECONDS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT WATER LEVELS WL REMAIN BELOW 2FT MSL
(BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE TAMUCC WATER LEVEL PREDICTIONS.)

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
NNE FLOW PROG TO OCCUR FROM H9 AND ABOVE. PWATS SHOULD FALL TO LESS
THAN AN INCH AS A RESULT WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP BECOMING PRACTICALLY
NIL. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS TX OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES WITH
A CONTINUATION OF A LIGHT WIND FIELD. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS.
LLVL WAA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ATTM MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ALOFT AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO TX. 00Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG AND FAST THE
FRONT WILL BE...BUT ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT OCCUR
DURING VALID FORECAST TIME FRAME. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD GIVEN MID LEVEL RIDGING
AND DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK
AS MODEST WAA OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  67  82  64  86  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          86  61  85  59  89  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            87  68  86  66  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             86  64  85  62  88  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          83  69  81  67  85  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           87  65  86  63  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  64  87  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       83  72  81  68  85  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221722
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1222 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...A CU FIELD DVLPG ACROSS S TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERALLY BE AT VFR LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY`S TOWARD THU MORNING FOR VCT...ALI AND LRD.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS LRD
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF DUE
TO THE ISOLD NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. WEAK TO MOD EAST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME VRB...BUT GENERALLY
NE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY NO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER GOES SOUNDER SHOWS MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND MODELS PROG INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. DUE
TO MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 20
PERCENT. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS DRG THE TAF PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR DRG THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE
SRN SECTIONS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SWRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN OWING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG DRG THE 08-12Z THU PERIOD. LGT
GENERALLY EAST WIND EXCEPT FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WL RETAIN ISOLD CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN CWA TODAY OWING TO SUFFICIENT MSTR...YET
NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT CAPE WL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. CONCUR WITH THE
GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH PROG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (700-300MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 200MB JET DYNAMICS). YET...NO SIGNIFICANT
PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THAT PERIOD OWING TO
INSUFFICENT MSTR (GFS/NAM PWAT VALUES BELOW NORMAL.)

MARINE...ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WL RESULT
IN SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY/TNGT. WL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF THE NEW MOON AND EXPECTED SFC WIND VELOCITIES. (ANTICIPATE THAT
SWELL PERIODS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7 SECONDS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT WATER LEVELS WL REMAIN BELOW 2FT MSL
(BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE TAMUCC WATER LEVEL PREDICTIONS.)

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
NNE FLOW PROG TO OCCUR FROM H9 AND ABOVE. PWATS SHOULD FALL TO LESS
THAN AN INCH AS A RESULT WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP BECOMING PRACTICALLY
NIL. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS TX OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES WITH
A CONTINUATION OF A LIGHT WIND FIELD. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS.
LLVL WAA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ATTM MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ALOFT AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO TX. 00Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG AND FAST THE
FRONT WILL BE...BUT ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT OCCUR
DURING VALID FORECAST TIME FRAME. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD GIVEN MID LEVEL RIDGING
AND DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK
AS MODEST WAA OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  67  82  64  86  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          86  61  85  59  89  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            87  68  86  66  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             86  64  85  62  88  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          83  69  81  67  85  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           87  65  86  63  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  64  87  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       83  72  81  68  85  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KSJT 221717
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1217 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Scattered rain showers will continue to lift north across the CWA
this afternoon, primarily along/west of a line from KSJT to KABI.
Ceilings will occasionally drop to around 4000 ft around these
showers, with otherwise prevailing cloud heights closer to 1000
ft. Showers will be possible again tonight, although confidence
at any given terminal is too low to mention. In general, VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light
southeast winds will continue through the early morning hours,
veering to the south Thursday morning.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
An area of light showers continues to lift north across the Concho
Valley this morning, with a heavier batch of showers farther west
of the Permian Basin. The shortwave trough that is helping to
produce this activity will continue to move northeast across West
TX today, which should result in a decrease in activity over the
next few hours. We`ll still maintain a potential for isolated
showers, and a few thunderstorms, this afternoon, but coverage
should be more limited than what we currently see. Precipitation
chances were changed to areal qualifiers (isolated/scattered) for
the rest of the day, and PoPs were bumped up to 30% across the
Concho Valley and western Big Country. Dewpoints were adjusted up
in the western areas a few degrees for today and minor changes
were made to temperatures and sky cover.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours at all
terminals. Occasional light showers may move over terminals
during the TAF period with no adverse impact. Winds will remain
light.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, an upper trough extends through central New
Mexico and south into far west Texas, placing the forecast area in
southwest flow aloft. While in a southwest flow aloft, periodic
disturbances will traverse the forecast area, giving us a chance
of associated showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of
rainfall today will be over the western half of the area. As the
upper trough continues to track east through today and tonight,
the upper flow aloft will veer to the northwest, bringing drier
air into the area and consequently shifting the best rainfall
chances to the eastern half of the CWA. Rainfall chances will come
to an end tomorrow morning as the upper trough axis moves east of
the area.

Afternoon highs today will reflect the position of the upper
trough and associated cloud cover and rain chances. Looking for
highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western half of the area,
with lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be in the upper 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Wednesday)

Unseasonably warm temperatures will be the highlight of the
extended period, with well above normal temperatures expected
Friday through next Monday.

The upper trough axis will be east of the area on Thursday, with a
building upper level ridge migrating from the Rockies and across
the Plains through Saturday. Expect decreasing clouds on Thursday,
with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
By Sunday, southwest flow aloft will develop across the Plains as
the ridge moves east and a large upper trough becomes established
across the western CONUS. This synoptic pattern will favor dry and
warm conditions through next Monday, with highs in the mid and
upper 80s and lows mainly in the upper 50s.

The aforementioned upper trough will move out into the Plains
Monday night, with an associated weak cold front affecting the
area on Tuesday. The ECMWF is deeper with the upper trough
compared to the GFS and would be more favorable for precipitation
affecting mainly far northern counties ahead of the front Monday
night. Forecast confidence remains low at this time however, so
will continue to maintain a dry forecast. Expect cooler
temperatures behind the front Tuesday and Wednesday, with daytime
highs closer to seasonal norms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  58  81  59  85 /  30  20  10   5   5
San Angelo  79  57  81  56  85 /  30  20   5   5   5
Junction  83  59  81  55  84 /  20  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KSJT 221717
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1217 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Scattered rain showers will continue to lift north across the CWA
this afternoon, primarily along/west of a line from KSJT to KABI.
Ceilings will occasionally drop to around 4000 ft around these
showers, with otherwise prevailing cloud heights closer to 1000
ft. Showers will be possible again tonight, although confidence
at any given terminal is too low to mention. In general, VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light
southeast winds will continue through the early morning hours,
veering to the south Thursday morning.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
An area of light showers continues to lift north across the Concho
Valley this morning, with a heavier batch of showers farther west
of the Permian Basin. The shortwave trough that is helping to
produce this activity will continue to move northeast across West
TX today, which should result in a decrease in activity over the
next few hours. We`ll still maintain a potential for isolated
showers, and a few thunderstorms, this afternoon, but coverage
should be more limited than what we currently see. Precipitation
chances were changed to areal qualifiers (isolated/scattered) for
the rest of the day, and PoPs were bumped up to 30% across the
Concho Valley and western Big Country. Dewpoints were adjusted up
in the western areas a few degrees for today and minor changes
were made to temperatures and sky cover.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours at all
terminals. Occasional light showers may move over terminals
during the TAF period with no adverse impact. Winds will remain
light.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, an upper trough extends through central New
Mexico and south into far west Texas, placing the forecast area in
southwest flow aloft. While in a southwest flow aloft, periodic
disturbances will traverse the forecast area, giving us a chance
of associated showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of
rainfall today will be over the western half of the area. As the
upper trough continues to track east through today and tonight,
the upper flow aloft will veer to the northwest, bringing drier
air into the area and consequently shifting the best rainfall
chances to the eastern half of the CWA. Rainfall chances will come
to an end tomorrow morning as the upper trough axis moves east of
the area.

Afternoon highs today will reflect the position of the upper
trough and associated cloud cover and rain chances. Looking for
highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western half of the area,
with lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be in the upper 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Wednesday)

Unseasonably warm temperatures will be the highlight of the
extended period, with well above normal temperatures expected
Friday through next Monday.

The upper trough axis will be east of the area on Thursday, with a
building upper level ridge migrating from the Rockies and across
the Plains through Saturday. Expect decreasing clouds on Thursday,
with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
By Sunday, southwest flow aloft will develop across the Plains as
the ridge moves east and a large upper trough becomes established
across the western CONUS. This synoptic pattern will favor dry and
warm conditions through next Monday, with highs in the mid and
upper 80s and lows mainly in the upper 50s.

The aforementioned upper trough will move out into the Plains
Monday night, with an associated weak cold front affecting the
area on Tuesday. The ECMWF is deeper with the upper trough
compared to the GFS and would be more favorable for precipitation
affecting mainly far northern counties ahead of the front Monday
night. Forecast confidence remains low at this time however, so
will continue to maintain a dry forecast. Expect cooler
temperatures behind the front Tuesday and Wednesday, with daytime
highs closer to seasonal norms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  58  81  59  85 /  30  20  10   5   5
San Angelo  79  57  81  56  85 /  30  20   5   5   5
Junction  83  59  81  55  84 /  20  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KHGX 221715
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1215 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A CU FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS MSTR LEVELS ARE
A BIT HIGHER THAN PROGGED. WINDS ALOFT ARE BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND
SOME MIXING IS BRINGING THE HIGHER SPEEDS TOWARD THE SFC. WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. DEW PT DEPRESSION SHOWS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG OVER THE SW ZONES AROUND SUNRISE.
43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
AN ESTABLISHED NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN PER THE SYNOPTIC
POSITIONING OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN HIGH. A BACKING VAD WIND PROFILE
WILL REGULATE HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE THE VERY DRY SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. AIR MASS HAS ON THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERAL MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW APPEARS TO FAVOR A CONTINUED EAST OR NORTH DIRECTION
THAT WILL MAINTAIN NEAR INCH PWATS OVER EASTERN TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...AMPLE SUN WITH ONGOING AVERAGE MID TO
UPPER 50 DEW POINT READINGS THAT WILL EQUATE TO SUB 50% AFTERNOON
RH`S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS EASTWARD THAT WILL INHIBIT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY/QUIET WX EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES UNTIL LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENTLY
SEEING SCT ECHOES ON RADAR (LIKELY VIRGA) ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OUT OVER WEST TX TRYING TO MOVE IN THIS DIRECTION. NOT REALLY
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS (OVER SE TX) TODAY/TOMORROW. OTHERWISE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP THE E/NELY LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE IN PLACE A BIT LONGER. PROGS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE RETURN OF RETURN FLOW SUN THEN BECOMING MORE
ENTRENCHED BY MON. HOWEVER...STILL A BIT WARY CONCERNING REAL
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL MAYBE TUES.

THE MIDDLE/EXTENDED FCST MODELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH THE
TRACK/DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE UPPER TROF. ECMWF WHICH HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED A STRONG WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
SE TX HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT WITH THIS LAST RUN...BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THE GFS WITH THAT REGARD. IT KEEPS A FLAT NEAR ZONAL/
SLIGHTLY SWLY UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...WITH THE ADDED BONUS OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE NE GULF(!?). DIFFERENCES ALSO NOTED WITH TIMING OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH TUES FROPA AND GFS
SLOWER WITH A LATE WEDS ONE. WILL SPLIT THE DIFF AND KEEP WITH 20%
POPS FOR BOTH TUES/WEDS ATTM. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  57  83  58  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  57  83  57  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  67  81  66  81 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 221715
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1215 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A CU FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS MSTR LEVELS ARE
A BIT HIGHER THAN PROGGED. WINDS ALOFT ARE BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND
SOME MIXING IS BRINGING THE HIGHER SPEEDS TOWARD THE SFC. WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. DEW PT DEPRESSION SHOWS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG OVER THE SW ZONES AROUND SUNRISE.
43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
AN ESTABLISHED NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN PER THE SYNOPTIC
POSITIONING OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN HIGH. A BACKING VAD WIND PROFILE
WILL REGULATE HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE THE VERY DRY SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. AIR MASS HAS ON THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERAL MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW APPEARS TO FAVOR A CONTINUED EAST OR NORTH DIRECTION
THAT WILL MAINTAIN NEAR INCH PWATS OVER EASTERN TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...AMPLE SUN WITH ONGOING AVERAGE MID TO
UPPER 50 DEW POINT READINGS THAT WILL EQUATE TO SUB 50% AFTERNOON
RH`S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS EASTWARD THAT WILL INHIBIT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY/QUIET WX EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES UNTIL LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENTLY
SEEING SCT ECHOES ON RADAR (LIKELY VIRGA) ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OUT OVER WEST TX TRYING TO MOVE IN THIS DIRECTION. NOT REALLY
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS (OVER SE TX) TODAY/TOMORROW. OTHERWISE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP THE E/NELY LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE IN PLACE A BIT LONGER. PROGS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE RETURN OF RETURN FLOW SUN THEN BECOMING MORE
ENTRENCHED BY MON. HOWEVER...STILL A BIT WARY CONCERNING REAL
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL MAYBE TUES.

THE MIDDLE/EXTENDED FCST MODELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH THE
TRACK/DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE UPPER TROF. ECMWF WHICH HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED A STRONG WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
SE TX HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT WITH THIS LAST RUN...BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THE GFS WITH THAT REGARD. IT KEEPS A FLAT NEAR ZONAL/
SLIGHTLY SWLY UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...WITH THE ADDED BONUS OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE NE GULF(!?). DIFFERENCES ALSO NOTED WITH TIMING OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH TUES FROPA AND GFS
SLOWER WITH A LATE WEDS ONE. WILL SPLIT THE DIFF AND KEEP WITH 20%
POPS FOR BOTH TUES/WEDS ATTM. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  57  83  58  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  57  83  57  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  67  81  66  81 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KFWD 221602 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1102 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
RADAR ECHOES WITH BAND OF MID CLOUDS IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IS
LIKELY VIRGA. ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR BENEATH THIS WEAK LIFT IS LESS
FORMIDABLE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...DO NOT EXPECT THAT ANY DROPS
WILL REACH THE GROUND TO THE EAST OF CURRENT ECHOES.

ONGOING ACTIVITY IN WEST TEXAS WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
SLIP INTO FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
WEST...CLOSER TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EJECTING INTO OKLAHOMA. AS
THE FLOW VEERS THIS EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY WORK
THEIR WAY FARTHER EAST...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE MID-LEVELS MEANS SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MODE...AND THE MEAGER LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE.

REMOVED MORNING FOG AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 609 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS SIMILAR IN THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH METROPLEX TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND SIMILAR MOISTURE
PROFILES IN THE LOWER LEVELS SUGGESTS THAT SOME MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
BRIEF PERIOD OF 5-6SM IN THE METRO AREA TAFS. FOR KACT...PERSISTENT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAS THUS FAR KEPT VISIBILITIES IN VFR RANGE.
BRIEF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT LESS PROBABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. WILL LIKELY KEEP A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5SM IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE
FORECASTS.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERALL. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM CONDITIONS TO NORTH TEXAS
ON THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN THE WEST. THE GULF WILL FINALLY FULLY OPEN UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WARM AIR
FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP A STOUT CAP
IN PLACE. FOR NOW WE WILL INCLUDE ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  61  80  62  83 /   0  10  20  10  10
WACO, TX              83  57  82  56  84 /   5   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             78  53  74  55  79 /   0  10  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            82  57  80  58  83 /   5  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          80  55  80  55  84 /   0  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            81  61  80  63  82 /   0  10  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           80  56  80  56  82 /   0  10  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         81  57  80  58  84 /   0   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            84  57  80  56  84 /  10   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  80  57  87 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

84/25






000
FXUS64 KFWD 221602 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1102 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
RADAR ECHOES WITH BAND OF MID CLOUDS IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IS
LIKELY VIRGA. ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR BENEATH THIS WEAK LIFT IS LESS
FORMIDABLE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...DO NOT EXPECT THAT ANY DROPS
WILL REACH THE GROUND TO THE EAST OF CURRENT ECHOES.

ONGOING ACTIVITY IN WEST TEXAS WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
SLIP INTO FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
WEST...CLOSER TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EJECTING INTO OKLAHOMA. AS
THE FLOW VEERS THIS EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY WORK
THEIR WAY FARTHER EAST...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE MID-LEVELS MEANS SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MODE...AND THE MEAGER LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE.

REMOVED MORNING FOG AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN UNCHANGED.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 609 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS SIMILAR IN THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH METROPLEX TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND SIMILAR MOISTURE
PROFILES IN THE LOWER LEVELS SUGGESTS THAT SOME MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
BRIEF PERIOD OF 5-6SM IN THE METRO AREA TAFS. FOR KACT...PERSISTENT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAS THUS FAR KEPT VISIBILITIES IN VFR RANGE.
BRIEF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT LESS PROBABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. WILL LIKELY KEEP A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5SM IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE
FORECASTS.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERALL. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM CONDITIONS TO NORTH TEXAS
ON THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN THE WEST. THE GULF WILL FINALLY FULLY OPEN UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WARM AIR
FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP A STOUT CAP
IN PLACE. FOR NOW WE WILL INCLUDE ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  61  80  62  83 /   0  10  20  10  10
WACO, TX              83  57  82  56  84 /   5   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             78  53  74  55  79 /   0  10  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            82  57  80  58  83 /   5  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          80  55  80  55  84 /   0  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            81  61  80  63  82 /   0  10  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           80  56  80  56  82 /   0  10  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         81  57  80  58  84 /   0   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            84  57  80  56  84 /  10   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  80  57  87 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

84/25






000
FXUS64 KHGX 221540
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1040 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AN ESTABLISHED NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN PER THE SYNOPTIC
POSITIONING OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN HIGH. A BACKING VAD WIND PROFILE
WILL REGULATE HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE THE VERY DRY SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. AIR MASS HAS ON THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERAL MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW APPEARS TO FAVOR A CONTINUED EAST OR NORTH DIRECTION
THAT WILL MAINTAIN NEAR INCH PWATS OVER EASTERN TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...AMPLE SUN WITH ONGOING AVERAGE MID TO
UPPER 50 DEW POINT READINGS THAT WILL EQUATE TO SUB 50% AFTERNOON
RH`S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS EASTWARD THAT WILL INHIBIT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY/QUIET WX EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES UNTIL LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENTLY
SEEING SCT ECHOES ON RADAR (LIKELY VIRGA) ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OUT OVER WEST TX TRYING TO MOVE IN THIS DIRECTION. NOT REALLY
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS (OVER SE TX) TODAY/TOMORROW. OTHERWISE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP THE E/NELY LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE IN PLACE A BIT LONGER. PROGS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE RETURN OF RETURN FLOW SUN THEN BECOMING MORE
ENTRENCHED BY MON. HOWEVER...STILL A BIT WARY CONCERNING REAL
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL MAYBE TUES.

THE MIDDLE/EXTENDED FCST MODELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH THE
TRACK/DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE UPPER TROF. ECMWF WHICH HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED A STRONG WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
SE TX HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT WITH THIS LAST RUN...BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THE GFS WITH THAT REGARD. IT KEEPS A FLAT NEAR ZONAL/
SLIGHTLY SWLY UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...WITH THE ADDED BONUS OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE NE GULF(!?). DIFFERENCES ALSO NOTED WITH TIMING OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH TUES FROPA AND GFS
SLOWER WITH A LATE WEDS ONE. WILL SPLIT THE DIFF AND KEEP WITH 20%
POPS FOR BOTH TUES/WEDS ATTM. 41

&&

AVIATION...
VERY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT NE TO CALM WINDS WITH
ONLY CI SPREADING INTO THE REGION. SOME PATCHY MIFG IS POSSIBLE
THOUGH NOT LIKELY AT CXO/LBX SO FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION
THERE BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. EXPECT THAT LIGHT NE WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO 5-8 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST AND LESSEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KNOTS STRONGER. 45

&&

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE HELD UP OVERNIGHT AND SEAS SLOWLY BUILDING. HAVE
HOISTED AN SCA FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS AND SCEC FOR NEARSHORE AND
MATAGORDA BAY AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
RUN 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 4-6 FEET NEARSHORE AND 6-7 FEET
OFFSHORE. WINDS RELAXING THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS
AND S/W APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE NE FLOW REGIME MORE OR LESS
STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN AROUND AND
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY (SCEC A GOOD BET MONDAY) BEFORE
A WEAKENING FRONT IS OUTRUN BY THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND TURNS
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST WEDNESDAY. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  57  83  58  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  57  83  57  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  67  81  66  81 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 221540
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1040 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AN ESTABLISHED NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN PER THE SYNOPTIC
POSITIONING OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN HIGH. A BACKING VAD WIND PROFILE
WILL REGULATE HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE THE VERY DRY SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. AIR MASS HAS ON THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. GENERAL MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW APPEARS TO FAVOR A CONTINUED EAST OR NORTH DIRECTION
THAT WILL MAINTAIN NEAR INCH PWATS OVER EASTERN TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...AMPLE SUN WITH ONGOING AVERAGE MID TO
UPPER 50 DEW POINT READINGS THAT WILL EQUATE TO SUB 50% AFTERNOON
RH`S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS EASTWARD THAT WILL INHIBIT ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY/QUIET WX EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES UNTIL LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENTLY
SEEING SCT ECHOES ON RADAR (LIKELY VIRGA) ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OUT OVER WEST TX TRYING TO MOVE IN THIS DIRECTION. NOT REALLY
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS (OVER SE TX) TODAY/TOMORROW. OTHERWISE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP THE E/NELY LOW/MID LEVEL
FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE IN PLACE A BIT LONGER. PROGS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE RETURN OF RETURN FLOW SUN THEN BECOMING MORE
ENTRENCHED BY MON. HOWEVER...STILL A BIT WARY CONCERNING REAL
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL MAYBE TUES.

THE MIDDLE/EXTENDED FCST MODELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WITH THE
TRACK/DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE UPPER TROF. ECMWF WHICH HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED A STRONG WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
SE TX HAS BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT WITH THIS LAST RUN...BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THE GFS WITH THAT REGARD. IT KEEPS A FLAT NEAR ZONAL/
SLIGHTLY SWLY UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...WITH THE ADDED BONUS OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE NE GULF(!?). DIFFERENCES ALSO NOTED WITH TIMING OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH TUES FROPA AND GFS
SLOWER WITH A LATE WEDS ONE. WILL SPLIT THE DIFF AND KEEP WITH 20%
POPS FOR BOTH TUES/WEDS ATTM. 41

&&

AVIATION...
VERY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT NE TO CALM WINDS WITH
ONLY CI SPREADING INTO THE REGION. SOME PATCHY MIFG IS POSSIBLE
THOUGH NOT LIKELY AT CXO/LBX SO FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION
THERE BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. EXPECT THAT LIGHT NE WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO 5-8 KTS AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
EAST AND LESSEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KNOTS STRONGER. 45

&&

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE HELD UP OVERNIGHT AND SEAS SLOWLY BUILDING. HAVE
HOISTED AN SCA FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS AND SCEC FOR NEARSHORE AND
MATAGORDA BAY AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
RUN 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 4-6 FEET NEARSHORE AND 6-7 FEET
OFFSHORE. WINDS RELAXING THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS
AND S/W APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE NE FLOW REGIME MORE OR LESS
STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN AROUND AND
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY (SCEC A GOOD BET MONDAY) BEFORE
A WEAKENING FRONT IS OUTRUN BY THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND TURNS
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST WEDNESDAY. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      82  57  83  58  85 /   0   0   0  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  57  83  57  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  67  81  66  81 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31




000
FXUS64 KCRP 221446
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
946 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY NO PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER GOES SOUNDER SHOWS MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND MODELS PROG INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING UPPER JET AND SHORT WAVE.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. DUE
TO MOISTURE BEING LIMITED...WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 20
PERCENT. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS DRG THE TAF PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR DRG THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE
SRN SECTIONS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SWRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN OWING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG DRG THE 08-12Z THU PERIOD. LGT
GENERALLY EAST WIND EXCEPT FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WL RETAIN ISOLD CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN CWA TODAY OWING TO SUFFICIENT MSTR...YET
NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT CAPE WL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. CONCUR WITH THE
GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH PROG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (700-300MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 200MB JET DYNAMICS). YET...NO SIGNIFICANT
PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THAT PERIOD OWING TO
INSUFFICENT MSTR (GFS/NAM PWAT VALUES BELOW NORMAL.)

MARINE...ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WL RESULT
IN SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY/TNGT. WL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF THE NEW MOON AND EXPECTED SFC WIND VELOCITIES. (ANTICIPATE THAT
SWELL PERIODS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7 SECONDS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT WATER LEVELS WL REMAIN BELOW 2FT MSL
(BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE TAMUCC WATER LEVEL PREDICTIONS.)

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
NNE FLOW PROG TO OCCUR FROM H9 AND ABOVE. PWATS SHOULD FALL TO LESS
THAN AN INCH AS A RESULT WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP BECOMING PRACTICALLY
NIL. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS TX OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES WITH
A CONTINUATION OF A LIGHT WIND FIELD. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS.
LLVL WAA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ATTM MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ALOFT AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO TX. 00Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG AND FAST THE
FRONT WILL BE...BUT ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT OCCUR
DURING VALID FORECAST TIME FRAME. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD GIVEN MID LEVEL RIDGING
AND DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK
AS MODEST WAA OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  67  82  64  86  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          86  61  85  59  89  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            87  68  86  66  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             86  64  85  62  88  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          83  69  81  67  85  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           87  65  86  63  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  64  87  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       83  72  81  68  85  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KSJT 221346
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
846 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
An area of light showers continues to lift north across the Concho
Valley this morning, with a heavier batch of showers farther west
of the Permian Basin. The shortwave trough that is helping to
produce this activity will continue to move northeast across West
TX today, which should result in a decrease in activity over the
next few hours. We`ll still maintain a potential for isolated
showers, and a few thunderstorms, this afternoon, but coverage
should be more limited than what we currently see. Precipitation
chances were changed to areal qualifiers (isolated/scattered) for
the rest of the day, and PoPs were bumped up to 30% across the
Concho Valley and western Big Country. Dewpoints were adjusted up
in the western areas a few degrees for today and minor changes
were made to temperatures and sky cover.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours at all
terminals. Occasional light showers may move over terminals
during the TAF period with no adverse impact. Winds will remain
light.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, an upper trough extends through central New
Mexico and south into far west Texas, placing the forecast area in
southwest flow aloft. While in a southwest flow aloft, periodic
disturbances will traverse the forecast area, giving us a chance
of associated showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of
rainfall today will be over the western half of the area. As the
upper trough continues to track east through today and tonight,
the upper flow aloft will veer to the northwest, bringing drier
air into the area and consequently shifting the best rainfall
chances to the eastern half of the CWA. Rainfall chances will come
to an end tomorrow morning as the upper trough axis moves east of
the area.

Afternoon highs today will reflect the position of the upper
trough and associated cloud cover and rain chances. Looking for
highs in the mid to upper 70s over the western half of the area,
with lower 80s over the eastern half. Morning lows tomorrow will
be in the upper 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Wednesday)

Unseasonably warm temperatures will be the highlight of the
extended period, with well above normal temperatures expected
Friday through next Monday.

The upper trough axis will be east of the area on Thursday, with a
building upper level ridge migrating from the Rockies and across
the Plains through Saturday. Expect decreasing clouds on Thursday,
with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
By Sunday, southwest flow aloft will develop across the Plains as
the ridge moves east and a large upper trough becomes established
across the western CONUS. This synoptic pattern will favor dry and
warm conditions through next Monday, with highs in the mid and
upper 80s and lows mainly in the upper 50s.

The aforementioned upper trough will move out into the Plains
Monday night, with an associated weak cold front affecting the
area on Tuesday. The ECMWF is deeper with the upper trough
compared to the GFS and would be more favorable for precipitation
affecting mainly far northern counties ahead of the front Monday
night. Forecast confidence remains low at this time however, so
will continue to maintain a dry forecast. Expect cooler
temperatures behind the front Tuesday and Wednesday, with daytime
highs closer to seasonal norms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  78  58  81  59  85 /  30  20  10   5   5
San Angelo  79  57  81  56  85 /  30  20   5   5   5
Junction  83  59  81  55  84 /  20  20  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25





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