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000
FXUS64 KAMA 020334
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1034 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS LINE WILL REACH KGUY AND KDHT
AROUND THE SAME TIME...06Z.. WITH KAMA LAGGING UNTIL 07Z TO 08Z. AS
THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH A BRIEF WIND GUST UP TO 35 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BRIEF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH...BUT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OTHERWISE. BEHIND THE LINE SURFACE
WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 10KT OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH WHILE REMAINING
LIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KDHT. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CONVECTION FREE...BUT AS 00Z
APPROACHES THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN. HAVE
INSERTED VICINITY SHOWERS IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
FUTURE TAF CYCLES TO NARROW DOWN THE WINDOW FOR CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL SITES BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE PERIOD. HAVE TIMED OUT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TO START AROUND 14Z...18Z AND 19Z GOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LATER
ISSUANCES WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING THOUGH FOR ON STATION.
WINDS AT KAMA VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. KDHT HAS EASTERLY
WINDS RIGHT NOW BUT THEY WILL BACK OVER THE EVENING THEN VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY 18Z AND BACK AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. WINDS AT KGUY ARE
NORTHERLY AND WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 14Z THEN SWING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LITE EXCEPT FOR AT KDHT WHERE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS MAY OCCUR AFTER 18Z.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEAK S/WV...STRONG HEATING AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL CHCS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NW ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY OFF NM MOUNTAINS HAS A LOW POTENTIAL TO ENTER
AREA. OVERALL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
THIS POTENTIAL WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MID-UPR RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH CENTER AND RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NM. MEANWHILE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
WILL POOL AND DEEPEN MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY. WHILE WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE WEAK...THERE IS SOME GOOD VEERING IN
THE PROFILE AND MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEER OF 30-40 ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SB CAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG
(PER NAM12) SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA AND
SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SUGGESTS WIND AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH
SOME HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY DUE TO
RETREATING RIDGE AND ABUNDANT CIRRUS DECK FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

GITTINGER

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
AND FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN THAT
IN BETWEEN AREA WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND A
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. IN BOTH CASES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE PANHANDLES ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHINESS TO FOCUS
CONVECTION DURING THOSE TIME FRAMES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SEASON...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAJOR THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT AND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER HELP TO KEEP
SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES AT BAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE THE
DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON THAT DAY.

GARCIA

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 020334
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1034 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS LINE WILL REACH KGUY AND KDHT
AROUND THE SAME TIME...06Z.. WITH KAMA LAGGING UNTIL 07Z TO 08Z. AS
THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH A BRIEF WIND GUST UP TO 35 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BRIEF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH...BUT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OTHERWISE. BEHIND THE LINE SURFACE
WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 10KT OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH WHILE REMAINING
LIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KDHT. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CONVECTION FREE...BUT AS 00Z
APPROACHES THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN. HAVE
INSERTED VICINITY SHOWERS IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
FUTURE TAF CYCLES TO NARROW DOWN THE WINDOW FOR CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL SITES BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE PERIOD. HAVE TIMED OUT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TO START AROUND 14Z...18Z AND 19Z GOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LATER
ISSUANCES WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING THOUGH FOR ON STATION.
WINDS AT KAMA VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. KDHT HAS EASTERLY
WINDS RIGHT NOW BUT THEY WILL BACK OVER THE EVENING THEN VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY 18Z AND BACK AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. WINDS AT KGUY ARE
NORTHERLY AND WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 14Z THEN SWING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LITE EXCEPT FOR AT KDHT WHERE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS MAY OCCUR AFTER 18Z.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEAK S/WV...STRONG HEATING AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL CHCS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NW ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY OFF NM MOUNTAINS HAS A LOW POTENTIAL TO ENTER
AREA. OVERALL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
THIS POTENTIAL WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MID-UPR RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH CENTER AND RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NM. MEANWHILE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
WILL POOL AND DEEPEN MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY. WHILE WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE WEAK...THERE IS SOME GOOD VEERING IN
THE PROFILE AND MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEER OF 30-40 ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SB CAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG
(PER NAM12) SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA AND
SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SUGGESTS WIND AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH
SOME HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY DUE TO
RETREATING RIDGE AND ABUNDANT CIRRUS DECK FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

GITTINGER

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
AND FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN THAT
IN BETWEEN AREA WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND A
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. IN BOTH CASES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE PANHANDLES ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHINESS TO FOCUS
CONVECTION DURING THOSE TIME FRAMES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SEASON...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAJOR THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT AND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER HELP TO KEEP
SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES AT BAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE THE
DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON THAT DAY.

GARCIA

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 020334
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1034 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS LINE WILL REACH KGUY AND KDHT
AROUND THE SAME TIME...06Z.. WITH KAMA LAGGING UNTIL 07Z TO 08Z. AS
THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH A BRIEF WIND GUST UP TO 35 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BRIEF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH...BUT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OTHERWISE. BEHIND THE LINE SURFACE
WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 10KT OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH WHILE REMAINING
LIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KDHT. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CONVECTION FREE...BUT AS 00Z
APPROACHES THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN. HAVE
INSERTED VICINITY SHOWERS IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
FUTURE TAF CYCLES TO NARROW DOWN THE WINDOW FOR CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL SITES BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE PERIOD. HAVE TIMED OUT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TO START AROUND 14Z...18Z AND 19Z GOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LATER
ISSUANCES WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING THOUGH FOR ON STATION.
WINDS AT KAMA VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. KDHT HAS EASTERLY
WINDS RIGHT NOW BUT THEY WILL BACK OVER THE EVENING THEN VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY 18Z AND BACK AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. WINDS AT KGUY ARE
NORTHERLY AND WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 14Z THEN SWING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LITE EXCEPT FOR AT KDHT WHERE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS MAY OCCUR AFTER 18Z.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEAK S/WV...STRONG HEATING AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL CHCS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NW ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY OFF NM MOUNTAINS HAS A LOW POTENTIAL TO ENTER
AREA. OVERALL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
THIS POTENTIAL WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MID-UPR RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH CENTER AND RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NM. MEANWHILE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
WILL POOL AND DEEPEN MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY. WHILE WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE WEAK...THERE IS SOME GOOD VEERING IN
THE PROFILE AND MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEER OF 30-40 ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SB CAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG
(PER NAM12) SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA AND
SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SUGGESTS WIND AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH
SOME HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY DUE TO
RETREATING RIDGE AND ABUNDANT CIRRUS DECK FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

GITTINGER

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
AND FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN THAT
IN BETWEEN AREA WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND A
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. IN BOTH CASES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE PANHANDLES ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHINESS TO FOCUS
CONVECTION DURING THOSE TIME FRAMES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SEASON...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAJOR THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT AND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER HELP TO KEEP
SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES AT BAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE THE
DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON THAT DAY.

GARCIA

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 020334
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1034 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS LINE WILL REACH KGUY AND KDHT
AROUND THE SAME TIME...06Z.. WITH KAMA LAGGING UNTIL 07Z TO 08Z. AS
THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH A BRIEF WIND GUST UP TO 35 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BRIEF MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH...BUT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OTHERWISE. BEHIND THE LINE SURFACE
WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO 10KT OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH WHILE REMAINING
LIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KDHT. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CONVECTION FREE...BUT AS 00Z
APPROACHES THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN. HAVE
INSERTED VICINITY SHOWERS IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS...BUT EXPECT
FUTURE TAF CYCLES TO NARROW DOWN THE WINDOW FOR CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL SITES BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE PERIOD. HAVE TIMED OUT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TO START AROUND 14Z...18Z AND 19Z GOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LATER
ISSUANCES WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING THOUGH FOR ON STATION.
WINDS AT KAMA VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. KDHT HAS EASTERLY
WINDS RIGHT NOW BUT THEY WILL BACK OVER THE EVENING THEN VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY 18Z AND BACK AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. WINDS AT KGUY ARE
NORTHERLY AND WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 14Z THEN SWING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LITE EXCEPT FOR AT KDHT WHERE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS MAY OCCUR AFTER 18Z.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEAK S/WV...STRONG HEATING AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL CHCS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NW ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY OFF NM MOUNTAINS HAS A LOW POTENTIAL TO ENTER
AREA. OVERALL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
THIS POTENTIAL WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MID-UPR RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH CENTER AND RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NM. MEANWHILE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
WILL POOL AND DEEPEN MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY. WHILE WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE WEAK...THERE IS SOME GOOD VEERING IN
THE PROFILE AND MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEER OF 30-40 ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SB CAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG
(PER NAM12) SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA AND
SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SUGGESTS WIND AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH
SOME HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY DUE TO
RETREATING RIDGE AND ABUNDANT CIRRUS DECK FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

GITTINGER

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
AND FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN THAT
IN BETWEEN AREA WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND A
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. IN BOTH CASES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE PANHANDLES ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHINESS TO FOCUS
CONVECTION DURING THOSE TIME FRAMES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SEASON...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAJOR THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT AND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER HELP TO KEEP
SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES AT BAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE THE
DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON THAT DAY.

GARCIA

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/14





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBRO 020331
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1031 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE A QUICK UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
WHICH WERE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GOING FORECAST. WINDS ARE LIGHTER
THAN FORECAST AS WELL SO TRENDED DOWNWARD ON SPEEDS AS WELL.
UPDATE SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD CONV TO THE REGION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AND START DRIFTING WEST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUALLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE MAV IS COMING IN THE DRIEST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE
MET AND ECMWF WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME 30% POPS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM SINCE THE DRIER MAV GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE MET/MAV/ECMWF
TEMPS AS THE MORE LIMITED CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE BETTER WARMUP OF AFTERNOON HIGHS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN
RIDGING AND TROUGHING...LOCAL WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
MOSTLY BY SFC FEATURES. MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN SWEEPING NWWD
INTO TEXAS WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT THEY WILL BE LIMITED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...ENOUGH TO NOT INTERFERE WITH
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ON THE 4TH. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY PW VALUES ARE NOTED AROUND 1.5
INCHES WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITING ON SHOWER FORMATION.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONV FROM EARLIER TODAY PUSHED
UP THE GULF WINDS AND SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
THESE HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE CONV HAS DIED DOWN. OUTFLOW
FROM THIS CONV IS PRODUCING SOME DECENT SW SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS FLOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PGF FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
REQUIRE SOME SCEC WORDING OR INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME SE FLOW CONTINUES
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE WAVE ACTION RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55



000
FXUS64 KBRO 020331
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1031 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE A QUICK UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
WHICH WERE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GOING FORECAST. WINDS ARE LIGHTER
THAN FORECAST AS WELL SO TRENDED DOWNWARD ON SPEEDS AS WELL.
UPDATE SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD CONV TO THE REGION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AND START DRIFTING WEST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUALLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE MAV IS COMING IN THE DRIEST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE
MET AND ECMWF WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME 30% POPS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM SINCE THE DRIER MAV GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE MET/MAV/ECMWF
TEMPS AS THE MORE LIMITED CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE BETTER WARMUP OF AFTERNOON HIGHS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN
RIDGING AND TROUGHING...LOCAL WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
MOSTLY BY SFC FEATURES. MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN SWEEPING NWWD
INTO TEXAS WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT THEY WILL BE LIMITED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...ENOUGH TO NOT INTERFERE WITH
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ON THE 4TH. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY PW VALUES ARE NOTED AROUND 1.5
INCHES WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITING ON SHOWER FORMATION.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONV FROM EARLIER TODAY PUSHED
UP THE GULF WINDS AND SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
THESE HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE CONV HAS DIED DOWN. OUTFLOW
FROM THIS CONV IS PRODUCING SOME DECENT SW SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS FLOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PGF FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
REQUIRE SOME SCEC WORDING OR INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME SE FLOW CONTINUES
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE WAVE ACTION RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55



000
FXUS64 KBRO 020331
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1031 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE A QUICK UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
WHICH WERE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GOING FORECAST. WINDS ARE LIGHTER
THAN FORECAST AS WELL SO TRENDED DOWNWARD ON SPEEDS AS WELL.
UPDATE SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD CONV TO THE REGION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AND START DRIFTING WEST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUALLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE MAV IS COMING IN THE DRIEST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE
MET AND ECMWF WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME 30% POPS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM SINCE THE DRIER MAV GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE MET/MAV/ECMWF
TEMPS AS THE MORE LIMITED CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE BETTER WARMUP OF AFTERNOON HIGHS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN
RIDGING AND TROUGHING...LOCAL WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
MOSTLY BY SFC FEATURES. MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN SWEEPING NWWD
INTO TEXAS WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT THEY WILL BE LIMITED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...ENOUGH TO NOT INTERFERE WITH
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ON THE 4TH. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY PW VALUES ARE NOTED AROUND 1.5
INCHES WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITING ON SHOWER FORMATION.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONV FROM EARLIER TODAY PUSHED
UP THE GULF WINDS AND SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
THESE HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE CONV HAS DIED DOWN. OUTFLOW
FROM THIS CONV IS PRODUCING SOME DECENT SW SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS FLOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PGF FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
REQUIRE SOME SCEC WORDING OR INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME SE FLOW CONTINUES
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE WAVE ACTION RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55



000
FXUS64 KBRO 020331
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1031 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...MADE A QUICK UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
WHICH WERE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GOING FORECAST. WINDS ARE LIGHTER
THAN FORECAST AS WELL SO TRENDED DOWNWARD ON SPEEDS AS WELL.
UPDATE SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD CONV TO THE REGION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AND START DRIFTING WEST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUALLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE MAV IS COMING IN THE DRIEST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE
MET AND ECMWF WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME 30% POPS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM SINCE THE DRIER MAV GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE MET/MAV/ECMWF
TEMPS AS THE MORE LIMITED CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE BETTER WARMUP OF AFTERNOON HIGHS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN
RIDGING AND TROUGHING...LOCAL WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
MOSTLY BY SFC FEATURES. MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN SWEEPING NWWD
INTO TEXAS WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT THEY WILL BE LIMITED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...ENOUGH TO NOT INTERFERE WITH
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ON THE 4TH. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY PW VALUES ARE NOTED AROUND 1.5
INCHES WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITING ON SHOWER FORMATION.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONV FROM EARLIER TODAY PUSHED
UP THE GULF WINDS AND SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
THESE HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE CONV HAS DIED DOWN. OUTFLOW
FROM THIS CONV IS PRODUCING SOME DECENT SW SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS FLOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PGF FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
REQUIRE SOME SCEC WORDING OR INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME SE FLOW CONTINUES
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE WAVE ACTION RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 020218
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
918 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING SPOTS OF RAIN/SHOWERS AROUND THE HIGH ISLAND AND BOLIVAR
PENINSULA AREA. EVERYTHING SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO...BUT HAVE KEPT VERY LOW POPS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE JUST IN CASE SOME REDEVELOPMENT HAPPENS.

ONLY SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ON
THE EVENING UPDATE.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL AT SEVERAL OF THE EASTERN TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVER NIGHT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NEXT 36 HOURS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT PRE-DAWN FOG AT KLBX...
KCLL AND KCXO.  44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE CWA...ANOTHER
LINE IS SETTING UP OVER THE SWRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. AIRMASS MIGHT
BE A BIT WORKED OVER BUT WILL GIVE THESE STORMS THE BENEFIT OF THE
DOUBT AND KEEP SCT/ISO POPS IN THE GRIDS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
DESPITE CONTINUED PROGS OF DRIER WX TOMORROW/FRI...REMAINING SOME-
WHAT SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE. WHILE NOT COMPLETELY GONE
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE MOISTURE/ENERGY LINGERING ACROSS THE WEST-
ERN GULF (PER AFTN SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS). WILL BE KEEPING LOW POP
NUMBERS IN/NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS FOR TOMORROW AS A PRECAUTION. WE
COULD VERY WELL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER ON FRI AS THAT WEAKNESS AREA BE-
GINS TO GET FILLED IN/WASHES OUT. NO CHANGES WITH THE FCST FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND (EVEN AS MODELS SEEM TO FLIP FLOP ON POPS) KEEPING
THE MOSTLY DIURNAL CHC POPS IN FOR SAT/SUN. NEXT WEEK LOOKING MUCH
DRIER A FLAT UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. 41

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM BETWEEN 3
TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE...4 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOCAL BAYS WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT CHOP. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MARINERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF THESE STORM PROBABILITIES AND BE PREPARED TO
QUICKLY SEEK SAFE HARBOR IN THE EVENT OF APPROACHING AND PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS CAN QUICKLY TURN VIOLENT IN AND
AROUND ANY VICINITY THUNDERSTORM. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  92  76  92  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  93  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  89  81  89  81 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...44



000
FXUS64 KHGX 020218
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
918 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING SPOTS OF RAIN/SHOWERS AROUND THE HIGH ISLAND AND BOLIVAR
PENINSULA AREA. EVERYTHING SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO...BUT HAVE KEPT VERY LOW POPS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE JUST IN CASE SOME REDEVELOPMENT HAPPENS.

ONLY SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ON
THE EVENING UPDATE.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL AT SEVERAL OF THE EASTERN TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVER NIGHT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NEXT 36 HOURS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT PRE-DAWN FOG AT KLBX...
KCLL AND KCXO.  44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE CWA...ANOTHER
LINE IS SETTING UP OVER THE SWRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. AIRMASS MIGHT
BE A BIT WORKED OVER BUT WILL GIVE THESE STORMS THE BENEFIT OF THE
DOUBT AND KEEP SCT/ISO POPS IN THE GRIDS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
DESPITE CONTINUED PROGS OF DRIER WX TOMORROW/FRI...REMAINING SOME-
WHAT SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE. WHILE NOT COMPLETELY GONE
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE MOISTURE/ENERGY LINGERING ACROSS THE WEST-
ERN GULF (PER AFTN SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS). WILL BE KEEPING LOW POP
NUMBERS IN/NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS FOR TOMORROW AS A PRECAUTION. WE
COULD VERY WELL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER ON FRI AS THAT WEAKNESS AREA BE-
GINS TO GET FILLED IN/WASHES OUT. NO CHANGES WITH THE FCST FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND (EVEN AS MODELS SEEM TO FLIP FLOP ON POPS) KEEPING
THE MOSTLY DIURNAL CHC POPS IN FOR SAT/SUN. NEXT WEEK LOOKING MUCH
DRIER A FLAT UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. 41

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM BETWEEN 3
TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE...4 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOCAL BAYS WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT CHOP. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MARINERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF THESE STORM PROBABILITIES AND BE PREPARED TO
QUICKLY SEEK SAFE HARBOR IN THE EVENT OF APPROACHING AND PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS CAN QUICKLY TURN VIOLENT IN AND
AROUND ANY VICINITY THUNDERSTORM. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  92  76  92  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  93  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  89  81  89  81 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...44



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 020207 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
907 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE
AFTERNOON DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNSET.
EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
BESIDES REMOVING THE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT/SKY TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE. VFR WILL PREVAIL.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MUCH LOWER TODAY THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING.
THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THE COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW BUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH TOWARDS
THE DFW AIRPORTS. IT IS POSSIBLE A BRIEF SHOWER COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE METROPLEX BETWEEN NOW
AND 01Z...BUT MORE LIKELY THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE AIRPORTS FROM
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE TO KEEP THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KTS FOR UP TO 30 MINS AFTER THE BOUNDARY
PASSES ANY ONE TAF SITE.

OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AT A FEW
AIRPORTS TO AROUND 10 KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

JLDUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INVADED FROM
SOUTH TEXAS...BEING GUIDED PRIMARILY BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT UNLIKE TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY DECREASES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500J/KG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.
DESPITE THIS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER INTO
THE CWA. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME DOWNGLIDE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE UPDRAFTS...
EVIDENCED BY THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THESE CELLS
MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RAIN-FREE DAY REGIONWIDE AS THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES SLIP INTO SOUTH TEXAS...LIMITING
BOTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS AND UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
WANE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. EACH DAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE FLOW ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. EACH
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO MAINTAIN
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS...BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AND DOMINATE TEXAS
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  93  75  92  75 /  10   5  10  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  74  93  75 /  20   0  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  87  72 /  10  10  40  70  40
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  92  73 /  10   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  74  91  73 /  10   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  94  76  93  76 /  10   5  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  93  74  91  74 /  10   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  73  92  74 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  73  92  73 /  20   5  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  93  73 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 020207 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
907 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE
AFTERNOON DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY SUNSET.
EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
BESIDES REMOVING THE MENTION OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT/SKY TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE. VFR WILL PREVAIL.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MUCH LOWER TODAY THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING.
THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THE COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW BUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH TOWARDS
THE DFW AIRPORTS. IT IS POSSIBLE A BRIEF SHOWER COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE METROPLEX BETWEEN NOW
AND 01Z...BUT MORE LIKELY THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE AIRPORTS FROM
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE TO KEEP THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KTS FOR UP TO 30 MINS AFTER THE BOUNDARY
PASSES ANY ONE TAF SITE.

OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AT A FEW
AIRPORTS TO AROUND 10 KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

JLDUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INVADED FROM
SOUTH TEXAS...BEING GUIDED PRIMARILY BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT UNLIKE TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY DECREASES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500J/KG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.
DESPITE THIS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER INTO
THE CWA. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME DOWNGLIDE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE UPDRAFTS...
EVIDENCED BY THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THESE CELLS
MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RAIN-FREE DAY REGIONWIDE AS THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES SLIP INTO SOUTH TEXAS...LIMITING
BOTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS AND UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
WANE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. EACH DAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE FLOW ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. EACH
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO MAINTAIN
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS...BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AND DOMINATE TEXAS
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  93  75  92  75 /  10   5  10  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  74  93  75 /  20   0  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  87  72 /  10  10  40  70  40
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  92  73 /  10   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  74  91  73 /  10   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  94  76  93  76 /  10   5  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  93  74  91  74 /  10   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  73  92  74 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  73  92  73 /  20   5  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  93  73 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 020036
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
736 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
TCU AND TSRA HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM EARLIER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE AND
VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TO LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY BKN MVFR
CIGS TO BRIEFLY RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR THE I35
TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE KDRT MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR IN
THE MORNING...OF ABOUT 6 HOURS...AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /  10  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /  10  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  10  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  10  -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  10  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 020036
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
736 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
TCU AND TSRA HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM EARLIER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE AND
VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TO LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY BKN MVFR
CIGS TO BRIEFLY RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR THE I35
TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE KDRT MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR IN
THE MORNING...OF ABOUT 6 HOURS...AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /  10  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /  10  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  10  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  10  -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  10  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 020036
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
736 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
TCU AND TSRA HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM EARLIER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE AND
VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TO LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY BKN MVFR
CIGS TO BRIEFLY RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR THE I35
TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE KDRT MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR IN
THE MORNING...OF ABOUT 6 HOURS...AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /  10  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /  10  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  10  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  10  -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  10  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 020036
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
736 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
TCU AND TSRA HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM EARLIER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE AND
VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TO LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY BKN MVFR
CIGS TO BRIEFLY RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR THE I35
TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE KDRT MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR IN
THE MORNING...OF ABOUT 6 HOURS...AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /  10  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /  10  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  10  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  10  -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  10  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 020036
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
736 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
TCU AND TSRA HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM EARLIER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE AND
VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TO LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY BKN MVFR
CIGS TO BRIEFLY RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR THE I35
TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE KDRT MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR IN
THE MORNING...OF ABOUT 6 HOURS...AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /  10  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /  10  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  10  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  10  -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  10  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 020036
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
736 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
TCU AND TSRA HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM EARLIER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE AND
VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TO LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY BKN MVFR
CIGS TO BRIEFLY RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR THE I35
TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE KDRT MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR IN
THE MORNING...OF ABOUT 6 HOURS...AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /  10  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /  10  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  10  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  10  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  10  -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  10  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KCRP 020028
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
728 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A MIXTURE OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16. PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EARLY/MID MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS DRG THE AFTN. ISOLD SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY DRG THE
EARLY/MID MORNING OVER THE COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LGT
ONSHORE SFC WIND OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS BY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY HAS EXITED THE CWA TO THE N WITH A FEW
VERY WEAK ECHOES LINGERING ACROSS THE N AND W CWA. TONIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH ISOLD CONVECTION REDVLPG ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THU
MORNING THEN SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER PWATS AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDING ACROSS S TX FROM THE N. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF THE NE CWA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE CAPE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOL
CONVECTION TO SHIFT TOWARD THE COT AND LRD AREAS. MODELS BRING
DRIER AIR INTO S TX THU NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
THU HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR. ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOD TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY DURING THU
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MORE SUBSIDENT PATTERN
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER MOISTURE...AND THUS
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW END CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND TSTMS RETURN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN SOMEWHAT OVER THE AREA AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND PWAT VALUES DROP FROM THE ~1.7-1.8
INCHES THEY WERE TO 1.1-1.3 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...LIGHT TO
MODERATE OVER LAND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO POSSIBLE SCEC LEVELS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  91  77  93  78  /  10  20  10  10  20
VICTORIA          73  92  76  91  76  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            75  96  76  99  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
ALICE             74  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  91  80  90  80  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           73  94  74  97  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  93  77  95  78  /  10  20  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  91  80  90  80  /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 020028
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
728 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A MIXTURE OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16. PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EARLY/MID MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS DRG THE AFTN. ISOLD SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY DRG THE
EARLY/MID MORNING OVER THE COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LGT
ONSHORE SFC WIND OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS BY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY HAS EXITED THE CWA TO THE N WITH A FEW
VERY WEAK ECHOES LINGERING ACROSS THE N AND W CWA. TONIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH ISOLD CONVECTION REDVLPG ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THU
MORNING THEN SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER PWATS AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDING ACROSS S TX FROM THE N. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF THE NE CWA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE CAPE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOL
CONVECTION TO SHIFT TOWARD THE COT AND LRD AREAS. MODELS BRING
DRIER AIR INTO S TX THU NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
THU HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR. ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOD TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY DURING THU
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MORE SUBSIDENT PATTERN
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER MOISTURE...AND THUS
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW END CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND TSTMS RETURN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN SOMEWHAT OVER THE AREA AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND PWAT VALUES DROP FROM THE ~1.7-1.8
INCHES THEY WERE TO 1.1-1.3 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...LIGHT TO
MODERATE OVER LAND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO POSSIBLE SCEC LEVELS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  91  77  93  78  /  10  20  10  10  20
VICTORIA          73  92  76  91  76  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            75  96  76  99  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
ALICE             74  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  91  80  90  80  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           73  94  74  97  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  93  77  95  78  /  10  20  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  91  80  90  80  /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 020028
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
728 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A MIXTURE OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16. PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EARLY/MID MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS DRG THE AFTN. ISOLD SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY DRG THE
EARLY/MID MORNING OVER THE COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LGT
ONSHORE SFC WIND OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS BY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY HAS EXITED THE CWA TO THE N WITH A FEW
VERY WEAK ECHOES LINGERING ACROSS THE N AND W CWA. TONIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH ISOLD CONVECTION REDVLPG ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THU
MORNING THEN SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER PWATS AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDING ACROSS S TX FROM THE N. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF THE NE CWA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE CAPE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOL
CONVECTION TO SHIFT TOWARD THE COT AND LRD AREAS. MODELS BRING
DRIER AIR INTO S TX THU NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
THU HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR. ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOD TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY DURING THU
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MORE SUBSIDENT PATTERN
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER MOISTURE...AND THUS
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW END CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND TSTMS RETURN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN SOMEWHAT OVER THE AREA AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND PWAT VALUES DROP FROM THE ~1.7-1.8
INCHES THEY WERE TO 1.1-1.3 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...LIGHT TO
MODERATE OVER LAND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO POSSIBLE SCEC LEVELS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  91  77  93  78  /  10  20  10  10  20
VICTORIA          73  92  76  91  76  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            75  96  76  99  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
ALICE             74  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  91  80  90  80  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           73  94  74  97  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  93  77  95  78  /  10  20  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  91  80  90  80  /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 020028
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
728 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A MIXTURE OF
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16. PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EARLY/MID MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS DRG THE AFTN. ISOLD SHOWERS ANTICIPATED MAINLY DRG THE
EARLY/MID MORNING OVER THE COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LGT
ONSHORE SFC WIND OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS BY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY HAS EXITED THE CWA TO THE N WITH A FEW
VERY WEAK ECHOES LINGERING ACROSS THE N AND W CWA. TONIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH ISOLD CONVECTION REDVLPG ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THU
MORNING THEN SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER PWATS AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDING ACROSS S TX FROM THE N. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF THE NE CWA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE CAPE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOL
CONVECTION TO SHIFT TOWARD THE COT AND LRD AREAS. MODELS BRING
DRIER AIR INTO S TX THU NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
THU HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR. ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOD TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY DURING THU
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MORE SUBSIDENT PATTERN
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER MOISTURE...AND THUS
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW END CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND TSTMS RETURN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN SOMEWHAT OVER THE AREA AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND PWAT VALUES DROP FROM THE ~1.7-1.8
INCHES THEY WERE TO 1.1-1.3 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...LIGHT TO
MODERATE OVER LAND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO POSSIBLE SCEC LEVELS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  91  77  93  78  /  10  20  10  10  20
VICTORIA          73  92  76  91  76  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            75  96  76  99  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
ALICE             74  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  91  80  90  80  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           73  94  74  97  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  93  77  95  78  /  10  20  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  91  80  90  80  /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KHGX 020010
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
710 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL AT SEVERAL OF THE EASTERN TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVER NIGHT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NEXT 36 HOURS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT PRE-DAWN FOG AT KLBX...
KCLL AND KCXO.  44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE CWA...ANOTHER
LINE IS SETTING UP OVER THE SWRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. AIRMASS MIGHT
BE A BIT WORKED OVER BUT WILL GIVE THESE STORMS THE BENEFIT OF THE
DOUBT AND KEEP SCT/ISO POPS IN THE GRIDS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
DESPITE CONTINUED PROGS OF DRIER WX TOMORROW/FRI...REMAINING SOME-
WHAT SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE. WHILE NOT COMPLETELY GONE
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE MOISTURE/ENERGY LINGERING ACROSS THE WEST-
ERN GULF (PER AFTN SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS). WILL BE KEEPING LOW POP
NUMBERS IN/NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS FOR TOMORROW AS A PRECAUTION. WE
COULD VERY WELL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER ON FRI AS THAT WEAKNESS AREA BE-
GINS TO GET FILLED IN/WASHES OUT. NO CHANGES WITH THE FCST FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND (EVEN AS MODELS SEEM TO FLIP FLOP ON POPS) KEEPING
THE MOSTLY DIURNAL CHC POPS IN FOR SAT/SUN. NEXT WEEK LOOKING MUCH
DRIER A FLAT UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. 41

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM BETWEEN 3
TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE...4 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOCAL BAYS WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT CHOP. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MARINERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF THESE STORM PROBABILITIES AND BE PREPARED TO
QUICKLY SEEK SAFE HARBOR IN THE EVENT OF APPROACHING AND PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS CAN QUICKLY TURN VIOLENT IN AND
AROUND ANY VICINITY THUNDERSTORM. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  92  76  92  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  93  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  89  81  89  81 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...44



000
FXUS64 KHGX 020010
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
710 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL AT SEVERAL OF THE EASTERN TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVER NIGHT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NEXT 36 HOURS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT PRE-DAWN FOG AT KLBX...
KCLL AND KCXO.  44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE CWA...ANOTHER
LINE IS SETTING UP OVER THE SWRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. AIRMASS MIGHT
BE A BIT WORKED OVER BUT WILL GIVE THESE STORMS THE BENEFIT OF THE
DOUBT AND KEEP SCT/ISO POPS IN THE GRIDS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
DESPITE CONTINUED PROGS OF DRIER WX TOMORROW/FRI...REMAINING SOME-
WHAT SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE. WHILE NOT COMPLETELY GONE
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE MOISTURE/ENERGY LINGERING ACROSS THE WEST-
ERN GULF (PER AFTN SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS). WILL BE KEEPING LOW POP
NUMBERS IN/NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS FOR TOMORROW AS A PRECAUTION. WE
COULD VERY WELL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER ON FRI AS THAT WEAKNESS AREA BE-
GINS TO GET FILLED IN/WASHES OUT. NO CHANGES WITH THE FCST FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND (EVEN AS MODELS SEEM TO FLIP FLOP ON POPS) KEEPING
THE MOSTLY DIURNAL CHC POPS IN FOR SAT/SUN. NEXT WEEK LOOKING MUCH
DRIER A FLAT UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. 41

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM BETWEEN 3
TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE...4 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOCAL BAYS WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT CHOP. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MARINERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF THESE STORM PROBABILITIES AND BE PREPARED TO
QUICKLY SEEK SAFE HARBOR IN THE EVENT OF APPROACHING AND PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS CAN QUICKLY TURN VIOLENT IN AND
AROUND ANY VICINITY THUNDERSTORM. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  92  76  92  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  93  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  89  81  89  81 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...44




000
FXUS64 KHGX 020010
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
710 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL AT SEVERAL OF THE EASTERN TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVER NIGHT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NEXT 36 HOURS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT PRE-DAWN FOG AT KLBX...
KCLL AND KCXO.  44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE CWA...ANOTHER
LINE IS SETTING UP OVER THE SWRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. AIRMASS MIGHT
BE A BIT WORKED OVER BUT WILL GIVE THESE STORMS THE BENEFIT OF THE
DOUBT AND KEEP SCT/ISO POPS IN THE GRIDS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
DESPITE CONTINUED PROGS OF DRIER WX TOMORROW/FRI...REMAINING SOME-
WHAT SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE. WHILE NOT COMPLETELY GONE
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE MOISTURE/ENERGY LINGERING ACROSS THE WEST-
ERN GULF (PER AFTN SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS). WILL BE KEEPING LOW POP
NUMBERS IN/NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS FOR TOMORROW AS A PRECAUTION. WE
COULD VERY WELL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER ON FRI AS THAT WEAKNESS AREA BE-
GINS TO GET FILLED IN/WASHES OUT. NO CHANGES WITH THE FCST FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND (EVEN AS MODELS SEEM TO FLIP FLOP ON POPS) KEEPING
THE MOSTLY DIURNAL CHC POPS IN FOR SAT/SUN. NEXT WEEK LOOKING MUCH
DRIER A FLAT UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. 41

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM BETWEEN 3
TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE...4 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOCAL BAYS WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT CHOP. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MARINERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF THESE STORM PROBABILITIES AND BE PREPARED TO
QUICKLY SEEK SAFE HARBOR IN THE EVENT OF APPROACHING AND PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS CAN QUICKLY TURN VIOLENT IN AND
AROUND ANY VICINITY THUNDERSTORM. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  92  76  92  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  93  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  89  81  89  81 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...44



000
FXUS64 KHGX 020010
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
710 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL AT SEVERAL OF THE EASTERN TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVER NIGHT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NEXT 36 HOURS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT PRE-DAWN FOG AT KLBX...
KCLL AND KCXO.  44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE CWA...ANOTHER
LINE IS SETTING UP OVER THE SWRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. AIRMASS MIGHT
BE A BIT WORKED OVER BUT WILL GIVE THESE STORMS THE BENEFIT OF THE
DOUBT AND KEEP SCT/ISO POPS IN THE GRIDS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
DESPITE CONTINUED PROGS OF DRIER WX TOMORROW/FRI...REMAINING SOME-
WHAT SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE. WHILE NOT COMPLETELY GONE
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE MOISTURE/ENERGY LINGERING ACROSS THE WEST-
ERN GULF (PER AFTN SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS). WILL BE KEEPING LOW POP
NUMBERS IN/NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS FOR TOMORROW AS A PRECAUTION. WE
COULD VERY WELL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER ON FRI AS THAT WEAKNESS AREA BE-
GINS TO GET FILLED IN/WASHES OUT. NO CHANGES WITH THE FCST FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND (EVEN AS MODELS SEEM TO FLIP FLOP ON POPS) KEEPING
THE MOSTLY DIURNAL CHC POPS IN FOR SAT/SUN. NEXT WEEK LOOKING MUCH
DRIER A FLAT UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. 41

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM BETWEEN 3
TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE...4 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOCAL BAYS WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT CHOP. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MARINERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF THESE STORM PROBABILITIES AND BE PREPARED TO
QUICKLY SEEK SAFE HARBOR IN THE EVENT OF APPROACHING AND PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS CAN QUICKLY TURN VIOLENT IN AND
AROUND ANY VICINITY THUNDERSTORM. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  92  76  92  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  93  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  89  81  89  81 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...44



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLUB 020002
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
702 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCDS...KLBB AND KPVW TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONVECTION DEVELOPING WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST OF KPVW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY MAY APPROACH THE
VICINITY OF TERMINAL LATE IN THE FORECAST. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND A
FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING ON TOP OF THE MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
LACK OF INSTABILITY EARLY AND THEN WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW APPEAR TO KEEP CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM
HOWEVER ANY SUBTLE COOLING WITH THE WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE LATE TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER WEST AND A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT MAY HELP BE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION AND THEN NORTH
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. OPTED TO PULL POPS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEN KEPT POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN TOO WARM FOR THE
CAPROCK...THEN WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
THINKING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THE RIDGE
SLIDING WEST A BIT ALLOWS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES TO FALL OVER
THE AREA. JORDAN

LONG TERM...DISSIPATING FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD BE GENERATING UPSCALE CONVECTION
TOWARD RED RIVER IN THE FORM OF LINE/MCS LATE THURSDAY...THUS WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF AREA. NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS WEAKENING FRONT WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD REMAIN FOCUS OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION BUT COVERAGE LESS LATE FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO LATE
THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD OK
AND AR. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO KLBB AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. PLEASANT EVENING ON
THE 4TH WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO LOWER TO MID 80S BY 8 PM AND
UPPER 70S TOWARD MIDNIGHT. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 MPH.

SAT/SUN...UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE BACK EASTWARD
ACROSS W TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MONSOON TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH A
CHANCE OF LATE EVENING STORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SC CANADA AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SENDING ANOTHER FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME CHANCE OF OUTFLOW HELPING TO BRING SHOWERS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH SEEM JUSTIFIED.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
STILL...WEAKNESS IN RIDGE AND DIURNAL MONSOONAL ACTIVITY COULD
GET CLOSE TO SW PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WESTERN
EDGE OF RING OF FIRE. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. JAMES
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  89  65  86 /  10  30  40  40
TULIA         65  88  67  86 /  10  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     66  88  68  86 /  10  20  40  30
LEVELLAND     67  90  68  88 /  10  20  40  20
LUBBOCK       68  90  69  88 /  10  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  90  67  88 /   0  10  30  20
BROWNFIELD    68  90  68  89 /   0  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     72  94  72  91 /  10  20  30  30
SPUR          70  92  70  89 /   0  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     71  93  73  92 /   0  10  20  20
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02



000
FXUS64 KLUB 020002
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
702 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KCDS...KLBB AND KPVW TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONVECTION DEVELOPING WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST OF KPVW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY MAY APPROACH THE
VICINITY OF TERMINAL LATE IN THE FORECAST. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND A
FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING ON TOP OF THE MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
LACK OF INSTABILITY EARLY AND THEN WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW APPEAR TO KEEP CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM
HOWEVER ANY SUBTLE COOLING WITH THE WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE LATE TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER WEST AND A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT MAY HELP BE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION AND THEN NORTH
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. OPTED TO PULL POPS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEN KEPT POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN TOO WARM FOR THE
CAPROCK...THEN WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
THINKING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THE RIDGE
SLIDING WEST A BIT ALLOWS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES TO FALL OVER
THE AREA. JORDAN

LONG TERM...DISSIPATING FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD BE GENERATING UPSCALE CONVECTION
TOWARD RED RIVER IN THE FORM OF LINE/MCS LATE THURSDAY...THUS WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF AREA. NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS WEAKENING FRONT WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD REMAIN FOCUS OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION BUT COVERAGE LESS LATE FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO LATE
THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD OK
AND AR. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO KLBB AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. PLEASANT EVENING ON
THE 4TH WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO LOWER TO MID 80S BY 8 PM AND
UPPER 70S TOWARD MIDNIGHT. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 MPH.

SAT/SUN...UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE BACK EASTWARD
ACROSS W TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MONSOON TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH A
CHANCE OF LATE EVENING STORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SC CANADA AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SENDING ANOTHER FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME CHANCE OF OUTFLOW HELPING TO BRING SHOWERS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH SEEM JUSTIFIED.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
STILL...WEAKNESS IN RIDGE AND DIURNAL MONSOONAL ACTIVITY COULD
GET CLOSE TO SW PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WESTERN
EDGE OF RING OF FIRE. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. JAMES
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  89  65  86 /  10  30  40  40
TULIA         65  88  67  86 /  10  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     66  88  68  86 /  10  20  40  30
LEVELLAND     67  90  68  88 /  10  20  40  20
LUBBOCK       68  90  69  88 /  10  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  90  67  88 /   0  10  30  20
BROWNFIELD    68  90  68  89 /   0  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     72  94  72  91 /  10  20  30  30
SPUR          70  92  70  89 /   0  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     71  93  73  92 /   0  10  20  20
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 020000
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
700 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Predominantly a VFR forecast the next 24 hours. It still looks
like some stratus will develop across the southern terminals
towards daybreak, much like it did this morning. Included MVFR
ceilings at KJCT and KBBD for a few hours Thursday morning, with
some scattered low clouds affecting KBBD and KSJT. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. South winds will gust
to around 20 knots again by late morning Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
remain unfavorable for any significant convective development.
However, a few showers may make it north to along the I-10 corridor
through early this evening. Going to keep the forecast dry tonight
and Thursday. Lows tonight will be mid 60s to lower 70s with highs
Thursday in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

LONG TERM...

(Thursday night through Wednesday)

A fairly benign weather pattern is forecast through the extended
forecast. An upper level ridge will be centered across the
Intermountain West, with an upper level trough moving across the
northern Plains then into Great Lakes Region late Thursday and into
the weekend. This will send a cold front into Oklahoma, stalling
somewhere near to just north of the Red River. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and north of this
boundary, but the upper level ridge is forecast to dominate most of
West Central Texas, keeping the bulk of convection to our north.
Still, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, across
mainly Haskell and Throckmorton counties, and slight chance PoPs
were retained.

Sunday through the middle of next week, the upper level ridge to the
west will expand east, resulting in dry and hot temperatures across
West Central Texas. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the
70s.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  92  74  92  73 /   5   5  10  10  10
San Angelo  69  91  72  91  72 /   5   5   5  10   5
Junction  69  87  71  90  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24





000
FXUS64 KSJT 020000
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
700 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Predominantly a VFR forecast the next 24 hours. It still looks
like some stratus will develop across the southern terminals
towards daybreak, much like it did this morning. Included MVFR
ceilings at KJCT and KBBD for a few hours Thursday morning, with
some scattered low clouds affecting KBBD and KSJT. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. South winds will gust
to around 20 knots again by late morning Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
remain unfavorable for any significant convective development.
However, a few showers may make it north to along the I-10 corridor
through early this evening. Going to keep the forecast dry tonight
and Thursday. Lows tonight will be mid 60s to lower 70s with highs
Thursday in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

LONG TERM...

(Thursday night through Wednesday)

A fairly benign weather pattern is forecast through the extended
forecast. An upper level ridge will be centered across the
Intermountain West, with an upper level trough moving across the
northern Plains then into Great Lakes Region late Thursday and into
the weekend. This will send a cold front into Oklahoma, stalling
somewhere near to just north of the Red River. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and north of this
boundary, but the upper level ridge is forecast to dominate most of
West Central Texas, keeping the bulk of convection to our north.
Still, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, across
mainly Haskell and Throckmorton counties, and slight chance PoPs
were retained.

Sunday through the middle of next week, the upper level ridge to the
west will expand east, resulting in dry and hot temperatures across
West Central Texas. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the
70s.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  92  74  92  73 /   5   5  10  10  10
San Angelo  69  91  72  91  72 /   5   5   5  10   5
Junction  69  87  71  90  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/24






000
FXUS64 KEWX 012346
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
TCU AND TSRA HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM EARLIER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE AND
VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TO LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY BKN MVFR
CIGS TO BRIEFLY RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR THE I35
TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE KDRT MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR IN
THE MORNING...OF ABOUT 6 HOURS...AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /  10  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /  10  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  20  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  20  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  10  -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  10  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 012346
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
TCU AND TSRA HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM EARLIER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE AND
VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TO LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY BKN MVFR
CIGS TO BRIEFLY RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR THE I35
TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE KDRT MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR IN
THE MORNING...OF ABOUT 6 HOURS...AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /  10  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /  10  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  20  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  20  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  10  -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  10  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 012346
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
TCU AND TSRA HAS DISSIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE
OF A BOUNDARY ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS FROM EARLIER. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10-12 KT RANGE AND
VFR CIGS. EXPECT THIS TO LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT AND ONLY BKN MVFR
CIGS TO BRIEFLY RETURN IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW FOR THE I35
TERMINALS. LOOKS LIKE KDRT MAY SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF MVFR IN
THE MORNING...OF ABOUT 6 HOURS...AS MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /  10  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /  10  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  20  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /  10  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  20  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  10  -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  10  20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  10  20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KFWD 012337 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
637 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE. VFR WILL PREVAIL.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MUCH LOWER TODAY THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING.
THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THE COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW BUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH TOWARDS
THE DFW AIRPORTS. IT IS POSSIBLE A BRIEF SHOWER COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE METROPLEX BETWEEN NOW
AND 01Z...BUT MORE LIKELY THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE AIRPORTS FROM
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE TO KEEP THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KTS FOR UP TO 30 MINS AFTER THE BOUNDARY
PASSES ANY ONE TAF SITE.

OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AT A FEW
AIRPORTS TO AROUND 10 KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

JLDUNN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INVADED FROM
SOUTH TEXAS...BEING GUIDED PRIMARILY BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT UNLIKE TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY DECREASES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500J/KG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.
DESPITE THIS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER INTO
THE CWA. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME DOWNGLIDE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE UPDRAFTS...
EVIDENCED BY THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THESE CELLS
MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RAIN-FREE DAY REGIONWIDE AS THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES SLIP INTO SOUTH TEXAS...LIMITING
BOTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS AND UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
WANE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. EACH DAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE FLOW ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. EACH
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO MAINTAIN
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS...BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AND DOMINATE TEXAS
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  93  75  92  75 /   5   5  10  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  74  93  75 /  20   0  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  87  72 /   5  10  40  70  40
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  92  73 /   5   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  74  91  73 /   5   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  94  76  93  76 /   5   5  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  93  74  91  74 /   5   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  73  92  74 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  73  92  73 /  20   5  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  93  73 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58



000
FXUS64 KFWD 012337 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
637 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE. VFR WILL PREVAIL.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MUCH LOWER TODAY THAN THIS
TIME YESTERDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED THIS EVENING.
THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THE COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW BUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH TOWARDS
THE DFW AIRPORTS. IT IS POSSIBLE A BRIEF SHOWER COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE METROPLEX BETWEEN NOW
AND 01Z...BUT MORE LIKELY THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE AIRPORTS FROM
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE TO KEEP THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNSET.
WINDS MAY GUST TO 25-30 KTS FOR UP TO 30 MINS AFTER THE BOUNDARY
PASSES ANY ONE TAF SITE.

OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AT A FEW
AIRPORTS TO AROUND 10 KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY TO
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

JLDUNN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INVADED FROM
SOUTH TEXAS...BEING GUIDED PRIMARILY BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT UNLIKE TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY DECREASES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500J/KG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.
DESPITE THIS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER INTO
THE CWA. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME DOWNGLIDE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE UPDRAFTS...
EVIDENCED BY THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THESE CELLS
MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RAIN-FREE DAY REGIONWIDE AS THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES SLIP INTO SOUTH TEXAS...LIMITING
BOTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS AND UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
WANE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. EACH DAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE FLOW ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. EACH
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO MAINTAIN
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS...BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AND DOMINATE TEXAS
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  93  75  92  75 /   5   5  10  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  74  93  75 /  20   0  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  87  72 /   5  10  40  70  40
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  92  73 /   5   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  74  91  73 /   5   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  94  76  93  76 /   5   5  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  93  74  91  74 /   5   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  73  92  74 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  73  92  73 /  20   5  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  93  73 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMAF 012324
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is
low cigs affecting some terminals early Thursday morning. Currently
have somewhat breezy SE winds across the region and expect speeds to
diminish overnight. MAF and FST may remain elevated through at least
midnight. MVFR/IFR cigs return once again Thursday morning and look
to affect MAF, HOB and INK for a few hours. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will be the rule.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Not much change expected in the forecast through the end of the
week. An upper high will remain centered near the Four Corners
region leaving west Texas and southeastern New Mexico in a slight
northwesterly upper flow. Subsidence on the southeastern side of
this high will put a cap on most convection with the best rain
chances occurring in the orographically favored Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains as well as southeastern New Mexico and the
northern Permian Basin where outflows from convection farther
north may provide enough forced ascent. Early next week the high
will drift slightly east creating a more westerly upper flow
causing temperatures to climb a few degrees. Rain chances will
also diminish as subsidence increases.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27



000
FXUS64 KMAF 012324
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is
low cigs affecting some terminals early Thursday morning. Currently
have somewhat breezy SE winds across the region and expect speeds to
diminish overnight. MAF and FST may remain elevated through at least
midnight. MVFR/IFR cigs return once again Thursday morning and look
to affect MAF, HOB and INK for a few hours. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will be the rule.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Not much change expected in the forecast through the end of the
week. An upper high will remain centered near the Four Corners
region leaving west Texas and southeastern New Mexico in a slight
northwesterly upper flow. Subsidence on the southeastern side of
this high will put a cap on most convection with the best rain
chances occurring in the orographically favored Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains as well as southeastern New Mexico and the
northern Permian Basin where outflows from convection farther
north may provide enough forced ascent. Early next week the high
will drift slightly east creating a more westerly upper flow
causing temperatures to climb a few degrees. Rain chances will
also diminish as subsidence increases.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27




000
FXUS64 KMAF 012324
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is
low cigs affecting some terminals early Thursday morning. Currently
have somewhat breezy SE winds across the region and expect speeds to
diminish overnight. MAF and FST may remain elevated through at least
midnight. MVFR/IFR cigs return once again Thursday morning and look
to affect MAF, HOB and INK for a few hours. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will be the rule.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Not much change expected in the forecast through the end of the
week. An upper high will remain centered near the Four Corners
region leaving west Texas and southeastern New Mexico in a slight
northwesterly upper flow. Subsidence on the southeastern side of
this high will put a cap on most convection with the best rain
chances occurring in the orographically favored Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains as well as southeastern New Mexico and the
northern Permian Basin where outflows from convection farther
north may provide enough forced ascent. Early next week the high
will drift slightly east creating a more westerly upper flow
causing temperatures to climb a few degrees. Rain chances will
also diminish as subsidence increases.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27




000
FXUS64 KAMA 012323
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
623 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL SITES BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE PERIOD. HAVE TIMED OUT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TO START AROUND 14Z...18Z AND 19Z GOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LATER
ISSUANCES WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING THOUGH FOR ON STATION.
WINDS AT KAMA VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. KDHT HAS EASTERLY
WINDS RIGHT NOW BUT THEY WILL BACK OVER THE EVENING THEN VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY 18Z AND BACK AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. WINDS AT KGUY ARE
NORTHERLY AND WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 14Z THEN SWING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LITE EXCEPT FOR AT KDHT WHERE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS MAY OCCUR AFTER 18Z.

BEAT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEAK S/WV...STRONG HEATING AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL CHCS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NW ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY OFF NM MOUNTAINS HAS A LOW POTENTIAL TO ENTER
AREA. OVERALL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
THIS POTENTIAL WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MID-UPR RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH CENTER AND RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NM. MEANWHILE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
WILL POOL AND DEEPEN MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY. WHILE WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE WEAK...THERE IS SOME GOOD VEERING IN
THE PROFILE AND MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEER OF 30-40 ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SB CAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG
(PER NAM12) SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA AND
SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SUGGESTS WIND AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH
SOME HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY DUE TO
RETREATING RIDGE AND ABUNDANT CIRRUS DECK FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

GITTINGER

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
AND FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN THAT
IN BETWEEN AREA WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND A
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. IN BOTH CASES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE PANHANDLES ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHINESS TO FOCUS
CONVECTION DURING THOSE TIME FRAMES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SEASON...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAJOR THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT AND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER HELP TO KEEP
SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES AT BAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE THE
DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON THAT DAY.

GARCIA

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 012323
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
623 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL SITES BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE PERIOD. HAVE TIMED OUT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TO START AROUND 14Z...18Z AND 19Z GOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LATER
ISSUANCES WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING THOUGH FOR ON STATION.
WINDS AT KAMA VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. KDHT HAS EASTERLY
WINDS RIGHT NOW BUT THEY WILL BACK OVER THE EVENING THEN VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY 18Z AND BACK AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. WINDS AT KGUY ARE
NORTHERLY AND WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 14Z THEN SWING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LITE EXCEPT FOR AT KDHT WHERE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS MAY OCCUR AFTER 18Z.

BEAT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEAK S/WV...STRONG HEATING AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL CHCS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NW ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY OFF NM MOUNTAINS HAS A LOW POTENTIAL TO ENTER
AREA. OVERALL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
THIS POTENTIAL WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MID-UPR RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH CENTER AND RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NM. MEANWHILE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
WILL POOL AND DEEPEN MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY. WHILE WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE WEAK...THERE IS SOME GOOD VEERING IN
THE PROFILE AND MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEER OF 30-40 ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SB CAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG
(PER NAM12) SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA AND
SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SUGGESTS WIND AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH
SOME HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY DUE TO
RETREATING RIDGE AND ABUNDANT CIRRUS DECK FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

GITTINGER

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
AND FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN THAT
IN BETWEEN AREA WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND A
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. IN BOTH CASES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE PANHANDLES ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHINESS TO FOCUS
CONVECTION DURING THOSE TIME FRAMES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SEASON...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAJOR THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT AND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER HELP TO KEEP
SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES AT BAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE THE
DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON THAT DAY.

GARCIA

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/14





000
FXUS64 KAMA 012323
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
623 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL SITES BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE PERIOD. HAVE TIMED OUT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TO START AROUND 14Z...18Z AND 19Z GOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LATER
ISSUANCES WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING THOUGH FOR ON STATION.
WINDS AT KAMA VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. KDHT HAS EASTERLY
WINDS RIGHT NOW BUT THEY WILL BACK OVER THE EVENING THEN VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY 18Z AND BACK AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. WINDS AT KGUY ARE
NORTHERLY AND WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 14Z THEN SWING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LITE EXCEPT FOR AT KDHT WHERE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS MAY OCCUR AFTER 18Z.

BEAT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEAK S/WV...STRONG HEATING AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL CHCS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NW ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY OFF NM MOUNTAINS HAS A LOW POTENTIAL TO ENTER
AREA. OVERALL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
THIS POTENTIAL WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MID-UPR RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH CENTER AND RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NM. MEANWHILE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
WILL POOL AND DEEPEN MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY. WHILE WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE WEAK...THERE IS SOME GOOD VEERING IN
THE PROFILE AND MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEER OF 30-40 ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SB CAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG
(PER NAM12) SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA AND
SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SUGGESTS WIND AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH
SOME HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY DUE TO
RETREATING RIDGE AND ABUNDANT CIRRUS DECK FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

GITTINGER

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
AND FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN THAT
IN BETWEEN AREA WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND A
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. IN BOTH CASES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE PANHANDLES ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHINESS TO FOCUS
CONVECTION DURING THOSE TIME FRAMES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SEASON...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAJOR THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT AND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER HELP TO KEEP
SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES AT BAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE THE
DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON THAT DAY.

GARCIA

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/14






000
FXUS64 KAMA 012323
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
623 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL SITES BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE PERIOD. HAVE TIMED OUT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
TO START AROUND 14Z...18Z AND 19Z GOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LATER
ISSUANCES WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING THOUGH FOR ON STATION.
WINDS AT KAMA VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. KDHT HAS EASTERLY
WINDS RIGHT NOW BUT THEY WILL BACK OVER THE EVENING THEN VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY 18Z AND BACK AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. WINDS AT KGUY ARE
NORTHERLY AND WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY 14Z THEN SWING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LITE EXCEPT FOR AT KDHT WHERE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KTS MAY OCCUR AFTER 18Z.

BEAT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEAK S/WV...STRONG HEATING AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL CHCS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NW ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY OFF NM MOUNTAINS HAS A LOW POTENTIAL TO ENTER
AREA. OVERALL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
THIS POTENTIAL WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MID-UPR RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH CENTER AND RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NM. MEANWHILE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
WILL POOL AND DEEPEN MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY. WHILE WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE WEAK...THERE IS SOME GOOD VEERING IN
THE PROFILE AND MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEER OF 30-40 ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SB CAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG
(PER NAM12) SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA AND
SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SUGGESTS WIND AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH
SOME HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY DUE TO
RETREATING RIDGE AND ABUNDANT CIRRUS DECK FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

GITTINGER

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
AND FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN THAT
IN BETWEEN AREA WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND A
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. IN BOTH CASES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE PANHANDLES ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHINESS TO FOCUS
CONVECTION DURING THOSE TIME FRAMES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SEASON...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAJOR THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT AND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER HELP TO KEEP
SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES AT BAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE THE
DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON THAT DAY.

GARCIA

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/14





000
FXUS64 KHGX 012038
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE CWA...ANOTHER
LINE IS SETTING UP OVER THE SWRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. AIRMASS MIGHT
BE A BIT WORKED OVER BUT WILL GIVE THESE STORMS THE BENEFIT OF THE
DOUBT AND KEEP SCT/ISO POPS IN THE GRIDS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
DESPITE CONTINUED PROGS OF DRIER WX TOMORROW/FRI...REMAINING SOME-
WHAT SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE. WHILE NOT COMPLETELY GONE
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE MOISTURE/ENERGY LINGERING ACROSS THE WEST-
ERN GULF (PER AFTN SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS). WILL BE KEEPING LOW POP
NUMBERS IN/NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS FOR TOMORROW AS A PRECAUTION. WE
COULD VERY WELL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER ON FRI AS THAT WEAKNESS AREA BE-
GINS TO GET FILLED IN/WASHES OUT. NO CHANGES WITH THE FCST FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND (EVEN AS MODELS SEEM TO FLIP FLOP ON POPS) KEEPING
THE MOSTLY DIURNAL CHC POPS IN FOR SAT/SUN. NEXT WEEK LOOKING MUCH
DRIER A FLAT UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. 41

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM BETWEEN 3
TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE...4 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOCAL BAYS WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT CHOP. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MARINERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF THESE STORM PROBABILITIES AND BE PREPARED TO
QUICKLY SEEK SAFE HARBOR IN THE EVENT OF APPROACHING AND PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS CAN QUICKLY TURN VIOLENT IN AND
AROUND ANY VICINITY THUNDERSTORM. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  92  76  92  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  93  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  89  81  89  81 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 012038
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE CWA...ANOTHER
LINE IS SETTING UP OVER THE SWRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN. AIRMASS MIGHT
BE A BIT WORKED OVER BUT WILL GIVE THESE STORMS THE BENEFIT OF THE
DOUBT AND KEEP SCT/ISO POPS IN THE GRIDS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
DESPITE CONTINUED PROGS OF DRIER WX TOMORROW/FRI...REMAINING SOME-
WHAT SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE. WHILE NOT COMPLETELY GONE
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE MOISTURE/ENERGY LINGERING ACROSS THE WEST-
ERN GULF (PER AFTN SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS). WILL BE KEEPING LOW POP
NUMBERS IN/NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS FOR TOMORROW AS A PRECAUTION. WE
COULD VERY WELL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER ON FRI AS THAT WEAKNESS AREA BE-
GINS TO GET FILLED IN/WASHES OUT. NO CHANGES WITH THE FCST FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND (EVEN AS MODELS SEEM TO FLIP FLOP ON POPS) KEEPING
THE MOSTLY DIURNAL CHC POPS IN FOR SAT/SUN. NEXT WEEK LOOKING MUCH
DRIER A FLAT UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. 41

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH PREVAILING
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM BETWEEN 3
TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE...4 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOCAL BAYS WILL EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT CHOP. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MARINERS
NEED TO BE AWARE OF THESE STORM PROBABILITIES AND BE PREPARED TO
QUICKLY SEEK SAFE HARBOR IN THE EVENT OF APPROACHING AND PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AND SEAS CAN QUICKLY TURN VIOLENT IN AND
AROUND ANY VICINITY THUNDERSTORM. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  92  76  92  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  93  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  89  81  89  81 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLUB 012033
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND A
FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING ON TOP OF THE MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
LACK OF INSTABILITY EARLY AND THEN WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW APPEAR TO KEEP CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM
HOWEVER ANY SUBTLE COOLING WITH THE WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE LATE TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER WEST AND A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT MAY HELP BE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION AND THEN NORTH
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. OPTED TO PULL POPS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEN KEPT POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN TOO WARM FOR THE
CAPROCK...THEN WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
THINKING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THE RIDGE
SLIDING WEST A BIT ALLOWS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES TO FALL OVER
THE AREA. JORDAN

.LONG TERM...DISSIPATING FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD BE GENERATING UPSCALE CONVECTION
TOWARD RED RIVER IN THE FORM OF LINE/MCS LATE THURSDAY...THUS WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF AREA. NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS WEAKENING FRONT WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD REMAIN FOCUS OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION BUT COVERAGE LESS LATE FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO LATE
THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD OK
AND AR. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO KLBB AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. PLEASANT EVENING ON
THE 4TH WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO LOWER TO MID 80S BY 8 PM AND
UPPER 70S TOWARD MIDNIGHT. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 MPH.

SAT/SUN...UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE BACK EASTWARD
ACROSS W TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MONSOON TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH A
CHANCE OF LATE EVENING STORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SC CANADA AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SENDING ANOTHER FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME CHANCE OF OUTFLOW HELPING TO BRING SHOWERS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH SEEM JUSTIFIED.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
STILL...WEAKNESS IN RIDGE AND DIURNAL MONSOONAL ACTIVITY COULD
GET CLOSE TO SW PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WESTERN
EDGE OF RING OF FIRE. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  89  65  86 /  10  30  40  40
TULIA         65  88  67  86 /  10  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     66  88  68  86 /  10  20  40  30
LEVELLAND     67  90  68  88 /  10  20  40  20
LUBBOCK       68  90  69  88 /  10  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  90  67  88 /   0  10  30  20
BROWNFIELD    68  90  68  89 /   0  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     72  94  72  91 /  10  20  30  30
SPUR          70  92  70  89 /   0  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     71  93  73  92 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/06




000
FXUS64 KLUB 012033
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND A
FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING ON TOP OF THE MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
LACK OF INSTABILITY EARLY AND THEN WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW APPEAR TO KEEP CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM
HOWEVER ANY SUBTLE COOLING WITH THE WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE LATE TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER WEST AND A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT MAY HELP BE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION AND THEN NORTH
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. OPTED TO PULL POPS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEN KEPT POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN TOO WARM FOR THE
CAPROCK...THEN WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
THINKING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THE RIDGE
SLIDING WEST A BIT ALLOWS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES TO FALL OVER
THE AREA. JORDAN

.LONG TERM...DISSIPATING FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD BE GENERATING UPSCALE CONVECTION
TOWARD RED RIVER IN THE FORM OF LINE/MCS LATE THURSDAY...THUS WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF AREA. NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS WEAKENING FRONT WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD REMAIN FOCUS OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION BUT COVERAGE LESS LATE FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO LATE
THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD OK
AND AR. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO KLBB AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. PLEASANT EVENING ON
THE 4TH WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO LOWER TO MID 80S BY 8 PM AND
UPPER 70S TOWARD MIDNIGHT. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 MPH.

SAT/SUN...UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE BACK EASTWARD
ACROSS W TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MONSOON TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH A
CHANCE OF LATE EVENING STORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SC CANADA AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SENDING ANOTHER FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME CHANCE OF OUTFLOW HELPING TO BRING SHOWERS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH SEEM JUSTIFIED.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
STILL...WEAKNESS IN RIDGE AND DIURNAL MONSOONAL ACTIVITY COULD
GET CLOSE TO SW PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WESTERN
EDGE OF RING OF FIRE. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  89  65  86 /  10  30  40  40
TULIA         65  88  67  86 /  10  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     66  88  68  86 /  10  20  40  30
LEVELLAND     67  90  68  88 /  10  20  40  20
LUBBOCK       68  90  69  88 /  10  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  90  67  88 /   0  10  30  20
BROWNFIELD    68  90  68  89 /   0  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     72  94  72  91 /  10  20  30  30
SPUR          70  92  70  89 /   0  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     71  93  73  92 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/06




000
FXUS64 KLUB 012033
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND A
FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING ON TOP OF THE MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
LACK OF INSTABILITY EARLY AND THEN WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW APPEAR TO KEEP CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM
HOWEVER ANY SUBTLE COOLING WITH THE WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE LATE TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER WEST AND A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT MAY HELP BE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION AND THEN NORTH
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. OPTED TO PULL POPS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEN KEPT POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN TOO WARM FOR THE
CAPROCK...THEN WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
THINKING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THE RIDGE
SLIDING WEST A BIT ALLOWS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES TO FALL OVER
THE AREA. JORDAN

.LONG TERM...DISSIPATING FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD BE GENERATING UPSCALE CONVECTION
TOWARD RED RIVER IN THE FORM OF LINE/MCS LATE THURSDAY...THUS WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF AREA. NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS WEAKENING FRONT WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD REMAIN FOCUS OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION BUT COVERAGE LESS LATE FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO LATE
THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD OK
AND AR. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO KLBB AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. PLEASANT EVENING ON
THE 4TH WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO LOWER TO MID 80S BY 8 PM AND
UPPER 70S TOWARD MIDNIGHT. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 MPH.

SAT/SUN...UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE BACK EASTWARD
ACROSS W TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MONSOON TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH A
CHANCE OF LATE EVENING STORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SC CANADA AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SENDING ANOTHER FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME CHANCE OF OUTFLOW HELPING TO BRING SHOWERS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH SEEM JUSTIFIED.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
STILL...WEAKNESS IN RIDGE AND DIURNAL MONSOONAL ACTIVITY COULD
GET CLOSE TO SW PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WESTERN
EDGE OF RING OF FIRE. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  89  65  86 /  10  30  40  40
TULIA         65  88  67  86 /  10  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     66  88  68  86 /  10  20  40  30
LEVELLAND     67  90  68  88 /  10  20  40  20
LUBBOCK       68  90  69  88 /  10  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  90  67  88 /   0  10  30  20
BROWNFIELD    68  90  68  89 /   0  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     72  94  72  91 /  10  20  30  30
SPUR          70  92  70  89 /   0  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     71  93  73  92 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/06




000
FXUS64 KLUB 012033
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND A
FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING ON TOP OF THE MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
LACK OF INSTABILITY EARLY AND THEN WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW APPEAR TO KEEP CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM
HOWEVER ANY SUBTLE COOLING WITH THE WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE LATE TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER WEST AND A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT MAY HELP BE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION AND THEN NORTH
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. OPTED TO PULL POPS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEN KEPT POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN TOO WARM FOR THE
CAPROCK...THEN WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
THINKING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THE RIDGE
SLIDING WEST A BIT ALLOWS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES TO FALL OVER
THE AREA. JORDAN

.LONG TERM...DISSIPATING FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD BE GENERATING UPSCALE CONVECTION
TOWARD RED RIVER IN THE FORM OF LINE/MCS LATE THURSDAY...THUS WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF AREA. NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS WEAKENING FRONT WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD REMAIN FOCUS OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION BUT COVERAGE LESS LATE FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO LATE
THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD OK
AND AR. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO KLBB AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. PLEASANT EVENING ON
THE 4TH WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO LOWER TO MID 80S BY 8 PM AND
UPPER 70S TOWARD MIDNIGHT. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 MPH.

SAT/SUN...UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE BACK EASTWARD
ACROSS W TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MONSOON TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH A
CHANCE OF LATE EVENING STORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SC CANADA AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SENDING ANOTHER FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME CHANCE OF OUTFLOW HELPING TO BRING SHOWERS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH SEEM JUSTIFIED.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
STILL...WEAKNESS IN RIDGE AND DIURNAL MONSOONAL ACTIVITY COULD
GET CLOSE TO SW PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WESTERN
EDGE OF RING OF FIRE. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  89  65  86 /  10  30  40  40
TULIA         65  88  67  86 /  10  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     66  88  68  86 /  10  20  40  30
LEVELLAND     67  90  68  88 /  10  20  40  20
LUBBOCK       68  90  69  88 /  10  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  90  67  88 /   0  10  30  20
BROWNFIELD    68  90  68  89 /   0  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     72  94  72  91 /  10  20  30  30
SPUR          70  92  70  89 /   0  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     71  93  73  92 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/06




000
FXUS64 KLUB 012033
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND A
FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING ON TOP OF THE MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
LACK OF INSTABILITY EARLY AND THEN WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW APPEAR TO KEEP CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM
HOWEVER ANY SUBTLE COOLING WITH THE WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE LATE TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER WEST AND A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT MAY HELP BE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION AND THEN NORTH
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. OPTED TO PULL POPS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEN KEPT POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN TOO WARM FOR THE
CAPROCK...THEN WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
THINKING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THE RIDGE
SLIDING WEST A BIT ALLOWS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES TO FALL OVER
THE AREA. JORDAN

.LONG TERM...DISSIPATING FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD BE GENERATING UPSCALE CONVECTION
TOWARD RED RIVER IN THE FORM OF LINE/MCS LATE THURSDAY...THUS WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF AREA. NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS WEAKENING FRONT WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD REMAIN FOCUS OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION BUT COVERAGE LESS LATE FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO LATE
THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD OK
AND AR. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO KLBB AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. PLEASANT EVENING ON
THE 4TH WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO LOWER TO MID 80S BY 8 PM AND
UPPER 70S TOWARD MIDNIGHT. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 MPH.

SAT/SUN...UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE BACK EASTWARD
ACROSS W TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MONSOON TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH A
CHANCE OF LATE EVENING STORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SC CANADA AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SENDING ANOTHER FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME CHANCE OF OUTFLOW HELPING TO BRING SHOWERS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH SEEM JUSTIFIED.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
STILL...WEAKNESS IN RIDGE AND DIURNAL MONSOONAL ACTIVITY COULD
GET CLOSE TO SW PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WESTERN
EDGE OF RING OF FIRE. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  89  65  86 /  10  30  40  40
TULIA         65  88  67  86 /  10  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     66  88  68  86 /  10  20  40  30
LEVELLAND     67  90  68  88 /  10  20  40  20
LUBBOCK       68  90  69  88 /  10  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  90  67  88 /   0  10  30  20
BROWNFIELD    68  90  68  89 /   0  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     72  94  72  91 /  10  20  30  30
SPUR          70  92  70  89 /   0  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     71  93  73  92 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/06




000
FXUS64 KLUB 012033
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND A
FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING ON TOP OF THE MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO/UTAH BORDER SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
LACK OF INSTABILITY EARLY AND THEN WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW APPEAR TO KEEP CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM
HOWEVER ANY SUBTLE COOLING WITH THE WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE LATE TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER WEST AND A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT MAY HELP BE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION AND THEN NORTH
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. OPTED TO PULL POPS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
THEN KEPT POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR TEMPERATURES AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME IN TOO WARM FOR THE
CAPROCK...THEN WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
THINKING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THE RIDGE
SLIDING WEST A BIT ALLOWS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES TO FALL OVER
THE AREA. JORDAN

.LONG TERM...DISSIPATING FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD BE GENERATING UPSCALE CONVECTION
TOWARD RED RIVER IN THE FORM OF LINE/MCS LATE THURSDAY...THUS WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF AREA. NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS WEAKENING FRONT WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD REMAIN FOCUS OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION BUT COVERAGE LESS LATE FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO LATE
THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD OK
AND AR. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO KLBB AND
POINTS NORTH AND EAST FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. PLEASANT EVENING ON
THE 4TH WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO LOWER TO MID 80S BY 8 PM AND
UPPER 70S TOWARD MIDNIGHT. WINDS SOUTH 10-15 MPH.

SAT/SUN...UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND MIGRATE BACK EASTWARD
ACROSS W TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MONSOON TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA WITH A
CHANCE OF LATE EVENING STORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SC CANADA AND THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...SENDING ANOTHER FRONT SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
WITH SOME CHANCE OF OUTFLOW HELPING TO BRING SHOWERS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH SEEM JUSTIFIED.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
STILL...WEAKNESS IN RIDGE AND DIURNAL MONSOONAL ACTIVITY COULD
GET CLOSE TO SW PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WESTERN
EDGE OF RING OF FIRE. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  89  65  86 /  10  30  40  40
TULIA         65  88  67  86 /  10  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     66  88  68  86 /  10  20  40  30
LEVELLAND     67  90  68  88 /  10  20  40  20
LUBBOCK       68  90  69  88 /  10  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  90  67  88 /   0  10  30  20
BROWNFIELD    68  90  68  89 /   0  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     72  94  72  91 /  10  20  30  30
SPUR          70  92  70  89 /   0  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     71  93  73  92 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/06



000
FXUS64 KFWD 012032
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
332 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INVADED FROM
SOUTH TEXAS...BEING GUIDED PRIMARILY BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT UNLIKE TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY DECREASES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500J/KG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.
DESPITE THIS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER INTO
THE CWA. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME DOWNGLIDE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE UPDRAFTS...
EVIDENCED BY THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THESE CELLS
MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RAIN-FREE DAY REGIONWIDE AS THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES SLIP INTO SOUTH TEXAS...LIMITING
BOTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS AND UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
WANE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. EACH DAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE FLOW ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. EACH
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO MAINTAIN
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS...BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AND DOMINATE TEXAS
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF WACO.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED DAYTIME CU AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. DAYTIME
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  93  75  92  75 /   5   5  10  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  74  93  75 /  20   0  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  87  72 /   5  10  40  70  40
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  92  73 /   5   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  74  91  73 /   5   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  94  76  93  76 /   5   5  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  93  74  91  74 /   5   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  73  92  74 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  73  92  73 /  20   5  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  93  73 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25



000
FXUS64 KFWD 012032
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
332 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INVADED FROM
SOUTH TEXAS...BEING GUIDED PRIMARILY BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT UNLIKE TUESDAY...RIDGING ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY STEADILY DECREASES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500J/KG ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.
DESPITE THIS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER INTO
THE CWA. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM
SOME DOWNGLIDE...WHICH IS LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE UPDRAFTS...
EVIDENCED BY THE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING. NONETHELESS...THESE CELLS
MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY NIGHTFALL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE A RAIN-FREE DAY REGIONWIDE AS THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES SLIP INTO SOUTH TEXAS...LIMITING
BOTH CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS AND UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE ONSET OF NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR
DAYTIME ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
WANE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST. EACH DAY...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY SLIDING ACROSS THE RED RIVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH THE FLOW ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. EACH
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO MAINTAIN
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS...BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD BY MONDAY AND DOMINATE TEXAS
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF WACO.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED DAYTIME CU AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. DAYTIME
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  93  75  92  75 /   5   5  10  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  74  93  75 /  20   0  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  90  72  87  72 /   5  10  40  70  40
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  92  73 /   5   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  74  91  73 /   5   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            74  94  76  93  76 /   5   5  10  30  20
TERRELL, TX           73  93  74  91  74 /   5   5  10  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         72  93  73  92  74 /  10   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  92  73  92  73 /  20   5  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  94  72  93  73 /   5   5  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KMAF 012018
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
318 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Not much change expected in the forecast through the end of the
week. An upper high will remain centered near the Four Corners
region leaving west Texas and southeastern New Mexico in a slight
northwesterly upper flow. Subsidence on the southeastern side of
this high will put a cap on most convection with the best rain
chances occurring in the orographically favored Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains as well as southeastern New Mexico and the
northern Permian Basin where outflows from convection farther
north may provide enough forced ascent. Early next week the high
will drift slightly east creating a more westerly upper flow
causing temperatures to climb a few degrees. Rain chances will
also diminish as subsidence increases.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  69  91  72  91  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    68  95  70  92  /   0  10  30  20
DRYDEN TX                      69  90  71  94  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               68  93  70  91  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  91  67  81  /   0  10  30  30
HOBBS NM                       66  92  67  87  /   0  10  30  20
MARFA TX                       62  89  64  85  /  10  10  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        68  91  71  90  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      68  91  71  90  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                        70  95  70  93  /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/10




000
FXUS64 KMAF 012018
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
318 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Not much change expected in the forecast through the end of the
week. An upper high will remain centered near the Four Corners
region leaving west Texas and southeastern New Mexico in a slight
northwesterly upper flow. Subsidence on the southeastern side of
this high will put a cap on most convection with the best rain
chances occurring in the orographically favored Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains as well as southeastern New Mexico and the
northern Permian Basin where outflows from convection farther
north may provide enough forced ascent. Early next week the high
will drift slightly east creating a more westerly upper flow
causing temperatures to climb a few degrees. Rain chances will
also diminish as subsidence increases.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  69  91  72  91  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    68  95  70  92  /   0  10  30  20
DRYDEN TX                      69  90  71  94  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               68  93  70  91  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  91  67  81  /   0  10  30  30
HOBBS NM                       66  92  67  87  /   0  10  30  20
MARFA TX                       62  89  64  85  /  10  10  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        68  91  71  90  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      68  91  71  90  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                        70  95  70  93  /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/10



000
FXUS64 KCRP 012016
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
316 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY HAS EXITED THE CWA TO THE N WITH A FEW
VERY WEAK ECHOES LINGERING ACROSS THE N AND W CWA. TONIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH ISOLD CONVECTION REDVLPG ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THU
MORNING THEN SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER PWATS AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDING ACROSS S TX FROM THE N. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF THE NE CWA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE CAPE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOL
CONVECTION TO SHIFT TOWARD THE COT AND LRD AREAS. MODELS BRING
DRIER AIR INTO S TX THU NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
THU HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR. ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOD TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY DURING THU
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MORE SUBSIDENT PATTERN
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER MOISTURE...AND THUS
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW END CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND TSTMS RETURN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN SOMEWHAT OVER THE AREA AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND PWAT VALUES DROP FROM THE ~1.7-1.8
INCHES THEY WERE TO 1.1-1.3 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...LIGHT TO
MODERATE OVER LAND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO POSSIBLE SCEC LEVELS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  91  77  93  78  /  10  20  10  10  20
VICTORIA          73  92  76  91  76  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            75  96  76  99  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
ALICE             74  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  91  80  90  80  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           73  94  74  97  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  93  77  95  78  /  10  20  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  91  80  90  80  /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 012016
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
316 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY HAS EXITED THE CWA TO THE N WITH A FEW
VERY WEAK ECHOES LINGERING ACROSS THE N AND W CWA. TONIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH ISOLD CONVECTION REDVLPG ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THU
MORNING THEN SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER PWATS AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDING ACROSS S TX FROM THE N. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF THE NE CWA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE CAPE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOL
CONVECTION TO SHIFT TOWARD THE COT AND LRD AREAS. MODELS BRING
DRIER AIR INTO S TX THU NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
THU HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR. ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOD TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY DURING THU
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MORE SUBSIDENT PATTERN
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER MOISTURE...AND THUS
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW END CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND TSTMS RETURN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN SOMEWHAT OVER THE AREA AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND PWAT VALUES DROP FROM THE ~1.7-1.8
INCHES THEY WERE TO 1.1-1.3 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...LIGHT TO
MODERATE OVER LAND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO POSSIBLE SCEC LEVELS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  91  77  93  78  /  10  20  10  10  20
VICTORIA          73  92  76  91  76  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            75  96  76  99  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
ALICE             74  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  91  80  90  80  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           73  94  74  97  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  93  77  95  78  /  10  20  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  91  80  90  80  /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 012016
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
316 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY HAS EXITED THE CWA TO THE N WITH A FEW
VERY WEAK ECHOES LINGERING ACROSS THE N AND W CWA. TONIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH ISOLD CONVECTION REDVLPG ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THU
MORNING THEN SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER PWATS AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDING ACROSS S TX FROM THE N. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF THE NE CWA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE CAPE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOL
CONVECTION TO SHIFT TOWARD THE COT AND LRD AREAS. MODELS BRING
DRIER AIR INTO S TX THU NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
THU HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR. ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOD TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY DURING THU
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MORE SUBSIDENT PATTERN
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER MOISTURE...AND THUS
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW END CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND TSTMS RETURN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN SOMEWHAT OVER THE AREA AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND PWAT VALUES DROP FROM THE ~1.7-1.8
INCHES THEY WERE TO 1.1-1.3 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...LIGHT TO
MODERATE OVER LAND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO POSSIBLE SCEC LEVELS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  91  77  93  78  /  10  20  10  10  20
VICTORIA          73  92  76  91  76  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            75  96  76  99  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
ALICE             74  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  91  80  90  80  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           73  94  74  97  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  93  77  95  78  /  10  20  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  91  80  90  80  /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 012016
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
316 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY HAS EXITED THE CWA TO THE N WITH A FEW
VERY WEAK ECHOES LINGERING ACROSS THE N AND W CWA. TONIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH ISOLD CONVECTION REDVLPG ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THU
MORNING THEN SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER PWATS AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDING ACROSS S TX FROM THE N. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF THE NE CWA...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE CAPE AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOL
CONVECTION TO SHIFT TOWARD THE COT AND LRD AREAS. MODELS BRING
DRIER AIR INTO S TX THU NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
THU HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR. ONSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOD TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY DURING THU
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MORE SUBSIDENT PATTERN
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER MOISTURE...AND THUS
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW END CHANCES
FOR SHRA AND TSTMS RETURN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN SOMEWHAT OVER THE AREA AND SUBSIDENT PATTERN WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND PWAT VALUES DROP FROM THE ~1.7-1.8
INCHES THEY WERE TO 1.1-1.3 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...LIGHT TO
MODERATE OVER LAND...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO POSSIBLE SCEC LEVELS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  91  77  93  78  /  10  20  10  10  20
VICTORIA          73  92  76  91  76  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            75  96  76  99  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
ALICE             74  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          80  91  80  90  80  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           73  94  74  97  75  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        74  93  77  95  78  /  10  20  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  91  80  90  80  /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KAMA 012014
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
314 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEAK S/WV...STRONG HEATING AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL CHCS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NW ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY OFF NM MOUNTAINS HAS A LOW POTENTIAL TO ENTER
AREA. OVERALL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
THIS POTENTIAL WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MID-UPR RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH CENTER AND RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NM. MEANWHILE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
WILL POOL AND DEEPEN MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY. WHILE WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE WEAK...THERE IS SOME GOOD VEERING IN
THE PROFILE AND MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEER OF 30-40 ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SB CAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG
(PER NAM12) SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA AND
SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SUGGESTS WIND AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH
SOME HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY DUE TO
RETREATING RIDGE AND ABUNDANT CIRRUS DECK FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

GITTINGER

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
AND FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN THAT
IN BETWEEN AREA WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND A
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. IN BOTH CASES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE PANHANDLES ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHINESS TO FOCUS
CONVECTION DURING THOSE TIME FRAMES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SEASON...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAJOR THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT AND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER HELP TO KEEP
SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES AT BAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE THE
DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON THAT DAY.

GARCIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  89  66  86  66 /  10  30  40  40  40
BEAVER OK                  70  90  67  88  67 /  20  40  40  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              66  88  63  85  63 /  30  30  40  30  30
BORGER TX                  72  92  68  87  68 /  10  30  40  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              70  92  66  87  66 /  10  30  40  40  30
CANYON TX                  67  91  65  86  65 /  10  30  40  40  20
CLARENDON TX               69  90  68  87  68 /  10  20  40  30  30
DALHART TX                 67  91  64  86  64 /  30  30  40  40  30
GUYMON OK                  69  90  66  87  66 /  20  30  40  30  30
HEREFORD TX                67  91  66  86  65 /  10  30  40  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                71  90  67  87  67 /  10  40  40  30  40
PAMPA TX                   69  89  66  86  66 /  10  30  40  30  40
SHAMROCK TX                70  91  68  88  68 /  10  30  40  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              72  92  70  90  70 /  10  20  40  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/01






000
FXUS64 KAMA 012014
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
314 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEAK S/WV...STRONG HEATING AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL CHCS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NW ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY OFF NM MOUNTAINS HAS A LOW POTENTIAL TO ENTER
AREA. OVERALL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
THIS POTENTIAL WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MID-UPR RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH CENTER AND RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NM. MEANWHILE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
WILL POOL AND DEEPEN MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY. WHILE WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE WEAK...THERE IS SOME GOOD VEERING IN
THE PROFILE AND MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEER OF 30-40 ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SB CAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG
(PER NAM12) SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA AND
SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SUGGESTS WIND AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH
SOME HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY DUE TO
RETREATING RIDGE AND ABUNDANT CIRRUS DECK FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

GITTINGER

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
AND FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN THAT
IN BETWEEN AREA WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND A
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. IN BOTH CASES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE PANHANDLES ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHINESS TO FOCUS
CONVECTION DURING THOSE TIME FRAMES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SEASON...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAJOR THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT AND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER HELP TO KEEP
SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES AT BAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE THE
DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON THAT DAY.

GARCIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  89  66  86  66 /  10  30  40  40  40
BEAVER OK                  70  90  67  88  67 /  20  40  40  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              66  88  63  85  63 /  30  30  40  30  30
BORGER TX                  72  92  68  87  68 /  10  30  40  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              70  92  66  87  66 /  10  30  40  40  30
CANYON TX                  67  91  65  86  65 /  10  30  40  40  20
CLARENDON TX               69  90  68  87  68 /  10  20  40  30  30
DALHART TX                 67  91  64  86  64 /  30  30  40  40  30
GUYMON OK                  69  90  66  87  66 /  20  30  40  30  30
HEREFORD TX                67  91  66  86  65 /  10  30  40  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                71  90  67  87  67 /  10  40  40  30  40
PAMPA TX                   69  89  66  86  66 /  10  30  40  30  40
SHAMROCK TX                70  91  68  88  68 /  10  30  40  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              72  92  70  90  70 /  10  20  40  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/01





000
FXUS64 KSJT 012006
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
306 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
remain unfavorable for any significant convective development.
However, a few showers may make it north to along the I-10 corridor
through early this evening. Going to keep the forecast dry tonight
and Thursday. Lows tonight will be mid 60s to lower 70s with highs
Thursday in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...

(Thursday night through Wednesday)

A fairly benign weather pattern is forecast through the extended
forecast. An upper level ridge will be centered across the
Intermountain West, with an upper level trough moving across the
northern Plains then into Great Lakes Region late Thursday and into
the weekend. This will send a cold front into Oklahoma, stalling
somewhere near to just north of the Red River. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and north of this
boundary, but the upper level ridge is forecast to dominate most of
West Central Texas, keeping the bulk of convection to our north.
Still, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, across
mainly Haskell and Throckmorton counties, and slight chance PoPs
were retained.

Sunday through the middle of next week, the upper level ridge to the
west will expand east, resulting in dry and hot temperatures across
West Central Texas. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the
70s.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  92  74  92  73 /   5   5  10  10  10
San Angelo  69  91  72  91  72 /   5   5   5  10   5
Junction  69  87  71  90  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 012006
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
306 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
remain unfavorable for any significant convective development.
However, a few showers may make it north to along the I-10 corridor
through early this evening. Going to keep the forecast dry tonight
and Thursday. Lows tonight will be mid 60s to lower 70s with highs
Thursday in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...

(Thursday night through Wednesday)

A fairly benign weather pattern is forecast through the extended
forecast. An upper level ridge will be centered across the
Intermountain West, with an upper level trough moving across the
northern Plains then into Great Lakes Region late Thursday and into
the weekend. This will send a cold front into Oklahoma, stalling
somewhere near to just north of the Red River. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and north of this
boundary, but the upper level ridge is forecast to dominate most of
West Central Texas, keeping the bulk of convection to our north.
Still, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, across
mainly Haskell and Throckmorton counties, and slight chance PoPs
were retained.

Sunday through the middle of next week, the upper level ridge to the
west will expand east, resulting in dry and hot temperatures across
West Central Texas. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the
70s.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  92  74  92  73 /   5   5  10  10  10
San Angelo  69  91  72  91  72 /   5   5   5  10   5
Junction  69  87  71  90  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 012006
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
306 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
remain unfavorable for any significant convective development.
However, a few showers may make it north to along the I-10 corridor
through early this evening. Going to keep the forecast dry tonight
and Thursday. Lows tonight will be mid 60s to lower 70s with highs
Thursday in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...

(Thursday night through Wednesday)

A fairly benign weather pattern is forecast through the extended
forecast. An upper level ridge will be centered across the
Intermountain West, with an upper level trough moving across the
northern Plains then into Great Lakes Region late Thursday and into
the weekend. This will send a cold front into Oklahoma, stalling
somewhere near to just north of the Red River. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and north of this
boundary, but the upper level ridge is forecast to dominate most of
West Central Texas, keeping the bulk of convection to our north.
Still, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, across
mainly Haskell and Throckmorton counties, and slight chance PoPs
were retained.

Sunday through the middle of next week, the upper level ridge to the
west will expand east, resulting in dry and hot temperatures across
West Central Texas. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the
70s.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  92  74  92  73 /   5   5  10  10  10
San Angelo  69  91  72  91  72 /   5   5   5  10   5
Junction  69  87  71  90  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 012006
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
306 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
remain unfavorable for any significant convective development.
However, a few showers may make it north to along the I-10 corridor
through early this evening. Going to keep the forecast dry tonight
and Thursday. Lows tonight will be mid 60s to lower 70s with highs
Thursday in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...

(Thursday night through Wednesday)

A fairly benign weather pattern is forecast through the extended
forecast. An upper level ridge will be centered across the
Intermountain West, with an upper level trough moving across the
northern Plains then into Great Lakes Region late Thursday and into
the weekend. This will send a cold front into Oklahoma, stalling
somewhere near to just north of the Red River. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and north of this
boundary, but the upper level ridge is forecast to dominate most of
West Central Texas, keeping the bulk of convection to our north.
Still, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, across
mainly Haskell and Throckmorton counties, and slight chance PoPs
were retained.

Sunday through the middle of next week, the upper level ridge to the
west will expand east, resulting in dry and hot temperatures across
West Central Texas. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the
70s.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  92  74  92  73 /   5   5  10  10  10
San Angelo  69  91  72  91  72 /   5   5   5  10   5
Junction  69  87  71  90  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 012006
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
306 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
remain unfavorable for any significant convective development.
However, a few showers may make it north to along the I-10 corridor
through early this evening. Going to keep the forecast dry tonight
and Thursday. Lows tonight will be mid 60s to lower 70s with highs
Thursday in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...

(Thursday night through Wednesday)

A fairly benign weather pattern is forecast through the extended
forecast. An upper level ridge will be centered across the
Intermountain West, with an upper level trough moving across the
northern Plains then into Great Lakes Region late Thursday and into
the weekend. This will send a cold front into Oklahoma, stalling
somewhere near to just north of the Red River. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and north of this
boundary, but the upper level ridge is forecast to dominate most of
West Central Texas, keeping the bulk of convection to our north.
Still, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, across
mainly Haskell and Throckmorton counties, and slight chance PoPs
were retained.

Sunday through the middle of next week, the upper level ridge to the
west will expand east, resulting in dry and hot temperatures across
West Central Texas. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the
70s.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  92  74  92  73 /   5   5  10  10  10
San Angelo  69  91  72  91  72 /   5   5   5  10   5
Junction  69  87  71  90  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 012006
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
306 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
remain unfavorable for any significant convective development.
However, a few showers may make it north to along the I-10 corridor
through early this evening. Going to keep the forecast dry tonight
and Thursday. Lows tonight will be mid 60s to lower 70s with highs
Thursday in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...

(Thursday night through Wednesday)

A fairly benign weather pattern is forecast through the extended
forecast. An upper level ridge will be centered across the
Intermountain West, with an upper level trough moving across the
northern Plains then into Great Lakes Region late Thursday and into
the weekend. This will send a cold front into Oklahoma, stalling
somewhere near to just north of the Red River. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and north of this
boundary, but the upper level ridge is forecast to dominate most of
West Central Texas, keeping the bulk of convection to our north.
Still, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, across
mainly Haskell and Throckmorton counties, and slight chance PoPs
were retained.

Sunday through the middle of next week, the upper level ridge to the
west will expand east, resulting in dry and hot temperatures across
West Central Texas. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the
70s.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  92  74  92  73 /   5   5  10  10  10
San Angelo  69  91  72  91  72 /   5   5   5  10   5
Junction  69  87  71  90  73 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KBRO 012004
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
304 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD CONV TO THE REGION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AND START DRIFTING WEST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUALLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE MAV IS COMING IN THE DRIEST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE
MET AND ECMWF WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME 30% POPS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM SINCE THE DRIER MAV GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE MET/MAV/ECMWF
TEMPS AS THE MORE LIMITED CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE BETTER WARMUP OF AFTERNOON HIGHS.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN
RIDGING AND TROUGHING...LOCAL WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
MOSTLY BY SFC FEATURES. MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN SWEEPING NWWD
INTO TEXAS WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT THEY WILL BE LIMITED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...ENOUGH TO NOT INTERFERE WITH
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ON THE 4TH. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY PW VALUES ARE NOTED AROUND 1.5
INCHES WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITING ON SHOWER FORMATION.


.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONV FROM EARLIER TODAY PUSHED
UP THE GULF WINDS AND SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
THESE HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE CONV HAS DIED DOWN. OUTFLOW
FROM THIS CONV IS PRODUCING SOME DECENT SW SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS FLOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PGF FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
REQUIRE SOME SCEC WORDING OR INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME SE FLOW CONTINUES
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE WAVE ACTION RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  78  89 /  20  20   0  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  91  78  91 /  20  20   0  20
HARLINGEN            77  93  76  93 /  20  20   0  20
MCALLEN              77  95  78  94 /  20  20   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  95  75  95 /  20  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  86  81  86 /  20  20   0  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

58/64



000
FXUS64 KBRO 012004
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
304 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE ELONGATED 500 MB
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD CONV TO THE REGION TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AND START DRIFTING WEST LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUALLY
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
THE MAV IS COMING IN THE DRIEST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE
MET AND ECMWF WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME 30% POPS INTO TOMORROW. WILL
OPT TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MET AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM SINCE THE DRIER MAV GUIDANCE IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE MET/MAV/ECMWF
TEMPS AS THE MORE LIMITED CONV COVERAGE TOMORROW MAY ALLOW FOR A
LITTLE BETTER WARMUP OF AFTERNOON HIGHS.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN
RIDGING AND TROUGHING...LOCAL WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED
MOSTLY BY SFC FEATURES. MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN SWEEPING NWWD
INTO TEXAS WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL STILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BUT THEY WILL BE LIMITED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...ENOUGH TO NOT INTERFERE WITH
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS ON THE 4TH. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT BY MONDAY PW VALUES ARE NOTED AROUND 1.5
INCHES WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITING ON SHOWER FORMATION.


.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CONV FROM EARLIER TODAY PUSHED
UP THE GULF WINDS AND SEAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
THESE HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH AS THE CONV HAS DIED DOWN. OUTFLOW
FROM THIS CONV IS PRODUCING SOME DECENT SW SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS FLOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF MODERATE S-SE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PGF FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
REQUIRE SOME SCEC WORDING OR INTO THURS/THURS NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STANDARD SUMMERTIME SE FLOW CONTINUES
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE WAVE ACTION RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  78  89 /  20  20   0  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  91  78  91 /  20  20   0  20
HARLINGEN            77  93  76  93 /  20  20   0  20
MCALLEN              77  95  78  94 /  20  20   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  95  75  95 /  20  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  86  81  86 /  20  20   0  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

58/64



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 012003
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ENTER THE
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY
RAINFALLS MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STORMS SO PERSONS SHOULD STAY
ALERT FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDS THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE AND WARM STABLE AIR
ALOFT WILL KEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE BARELY SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE ARIZONA FOR VERY ISOLATED
STORMS BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST INTO ARIZONA WHICH WILL ALLOW WEAK UPPER WAVES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN ADDITION A
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL ALSO ENTER
THE FROM THE NORTH AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST COMBINED THE DESERT HEAT LOW
OVER ARIZONA WILL MEANWHILE INDUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA WITH TRAJECTORIES FAVORING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL PUSH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CORRESPONDING RISES
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO AROUND 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. MOISTURE
INCREASES WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPES AROUND
600 TO 1200 J/KG MOST LOCATIONS.

LIFTING FROM SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH PLUS WEAK
UPPER WAVES AND OUTFLOWS WILL THEREFORE BRING MUCH MORE WIDESPREADSHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
SATURDAY. THE HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE PLUS SLOW STORM MOTION
VECTORS INDICATE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MONITORED. INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT AT
LEAST SMALL HAIL WITH VERY ISOLATED STORMS.

BY SUNDAY A LEE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IN RESPONSE SURFACE
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY WHICH USUALLY SUGGESTS INFLOW OF DRIER
AIR. HOWEVER INSPECTION OF REGIONAL WINDS INDICATES TRAJECTORIES
WILL EXTEND INTO BAJA MEANING THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ACROSS THE CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 1.2 TO
1.4 INCHES ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AIR MASS THUS REMAINS
UNSTABLE WITH THREAT OF CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING INTO THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z-03/00Z...P6SM SKC-FEW080-100 ISOLD
-TSRA BKN060-080 AREA MTS THRU 03Z. AFT 18Z SCT080-100
SCT-BKN200-250 WITH ISOLD -TSRA BKN050-070 NORTH OF KALM-KDMN LINE.
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 12KTS FROM SE E OF RIO GRANDE AND W TO NW WEST
OF RIVER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING STARTING
THURSDAY AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
INTO THE WEEKEND AS STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15 PERCENT LOWLANDS THURSDAY AND
THEN STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT STARTING FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75 102  75  97 /   0  10  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           68  99  70  93 /   0  10  30  30
LAS CRUCES              71 100  72  95 /  10  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              71  98  71  93 /  10  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              59  76  57  70 /  10  50  50  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  97  70  93 /  10  20  30  40
SILVER CITY             65  90  65  85 /  20  50  40  60
DEMING                  71 100  71  95 /  10  20  30  40
LORDSBURG               70  98  69  95 /  10  30  30  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      75 102  76  97 /   0  10  30  30
DELL CITY               69 100  70  94 /   0  10  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            72 102  73  97 /   0  10  30  30
LOMA LINDA              69  97  69  91 /   0  10  30  30
FABENS                  72 102  73  97 /   0  10  30  30
SANTA TERESA            73 100  74  96 /   0  20  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          71 100  72  95 /   0  20  30  30
JORNADA RANGE           71  99  71  94 /  10  20  30  30
HATCH                   71 100  70  96 /  10  20  30  40
COLUMBUS                71 100  71  95 /  10  20  30  40
OROGRANDE               72  99  73  94 /   0  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 60  84  59  76 /  10  50  40  60
MESCALERO               59  86  59  79 /  10  50  40  60
TIMBERON                59  85  58  79 /  10  50  40  60
WINSTON                 63  90  61  85 /  20  50  50  60
HILLSBORO               67  96  66  92 /  10  30  40  40
SPACEPORT               71  99  71  93 /  10  20  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            61  90  60  84 /  20  50  50  60
HURLEY                  67  93  66  88 /  10  30  40  50
CLIFF                   64  96  65  92 /  20  50  50  50
MULE CREEK              65  95  67  91 /  20  40  40  50
FAYWOOD                 68  94  66  90 /  10  30  40  50
ANIMAS                  70 100  69  97 /  10  30  30  50
HACHITA                 70 100  69  97 /  10  20  30  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  97  66  95 /  10  30  40  40
CLOVERDALE              66  93  66  91 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 012003
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ENTER THE
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY
RAINFALLS MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STORMS SO PERSONS SHOULD STAY
ALERT FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDS THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE AND WARM STABLE AIR
ALOFT WILL KEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE BARELY SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE ARIZONA FOR VERY ISOLATED
STORMS BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST INTO ARIZONA WHICH WILL ALLOW WEAK UPPER WAVES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN ADDITION A
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL ALSO ENTER
THE FROM THE NORTH AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST COMBINED THE DESERT HEAT LOW
OVER ARIZONA WILL MEANWHILE INDUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA WITH TRAJECTORIES FAVORING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL PUSH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CORRESPONDING RISES
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO AROUND 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. MOISTURE
INCREASES WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPES AROUND
600 TO 1200 J/KG MOST LOCATIONS.

LIFTING FROM SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH PLUS WEAK
UPPER WAVES AND OUTFLOWS WILL THEREFORE BRING MUCH MORE WIDESPREADSHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
SATURDAY. THE HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE PLUS SLOW STORM MOTION
VECTORS INDICATE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MONITORED. INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT AT
LEAST SMALL HAIL WITH VERY ISOLATED STORMS.

BY SUNDAY A LEE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IN RESPONSE SURFACE
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY WHICH USUALLY SUGGESTS INFLOW OF DRIER
AIR. HOWEVER INSPECTION OF REGIONAL WINDS INDICATES TRAJECTORIES
WILL EXTEND INTO BAJA MEANING THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ACROSS THE CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 1.2 TO
1.4 INCHES ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AIR MASS THUS REMAINS
UNSTABLE WITH THREAT OF CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING INTO THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z-03/00Z...P6SM SKC-FEW080-100 ISOLD
-TSRA BKN060-080 AREA MTS THRU 03Z. AFT 18Z SCT080-100
SCT-BKN200-250 WITH ISOLD -TSRA BKN050-070 NORTH OF KALM-KDMN LINE.
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 12KTS FROM SE E OF RIO GRANDE AND W TO NW WEST
OF RIVER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING STARTING
THURSDAY AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
INTO THE WEEKEND AS STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15 PERCENT LOWLANDS THURSDAY AND
THEN STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT STARTING FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75 102  75  97 /   0  10  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           68  99  70  93 /   0  10  30  30
LAS CRUCES              71 100  72  95 /  10  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              71  98  71  93 /  10  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              59  76  57  70 /  10  50  50  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  97  70  93 /  10  20  30  40
SILVER CITY             65  90  65  85 /  20  50  40  60
DEMING                  71 100  71  95 /  10  20  30  40
LORDSBURG               70  98  69  95 /  10  30  30  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      75 102  76  97 /   0  10  30  30
DELL CITY               69 100  70  94 /   0  10  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            72 102  73  97 /   0  10  30  30
LOMA LINDA              69  97  69  91 /   0  10  30  30
FABENS                  72 102  73  97 /   0  10  30  30
SANTA TERESA            73 100  74  96 /   0  20  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          71 100  72  95 /   0  20  30  30
JORNADA RANGE           71  99  71  94 /  10  20  30  30
HATCH                   71 100  70  96 /  10  20  30  40
COLUMBUS                71 100  71  95 /  10  20  30  40
OROGRANDE               72  99  73  94 /   0  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 60  84  59  76 /  10  50  40  60
MESCALERO               59  86  59  79 /  10  50  40  60
TIMBERON                59  85  58  79 /  10  50  40  60
WINSTON                 63  90  61  85 /  20  50  50  60
HILLSBORO               67  96  66  92 /  10  30  40  40
SPACEPORT               71  99  71  93 /  10  20  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            61  90  60  84 /  20  50  50  60
HURLEY                  67  93  66  88 /  10  30  40  50
CLIFF                   64  96  65  92 /  20  50  50  50
MULE CREEK              65  95  67  91 /  20  40  40  50
FAYWOOD                 68  94  66  90 /  10  30  40  50
ANIMAS                  70 100  69  97 /  10  30  30  50
HACHITA                 70 100  69  97 /  10  20  30  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  97  66  95 /  10  30  40  40
CLOVERDALE              66  93  66  91 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ



000
FXUS64 KEWX 011949
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUDCOVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /   0  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /   0  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  -   20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /   0  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  20  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /   0  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  20  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  -   20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  -   -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  -   20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  -   20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH



000
FXUS64 KEWX 011949
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO A
MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF I-10...SO WE EXPECT
THE STORMS TO DIE OUT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ROLLING PLAINS
EAST OF AUSTIN BY 7 PM OR SO. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR SLOW PARTIAL
CLEARING BY LATE EVENING...THEN SOME RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER POPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT STORMS TO STAY GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-10 AND BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. TEMPS WILL ALSO
BEGIN A SLOW CLIMB WITH LESS CLOUDCOVER AND STORM COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY...BEFORE A
WEAKNESS BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT SINCE IT/S A HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE
THREAT OF LIGHTNING AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE EMPHASIZED.

STARTING WITH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONG AND
CENTERS OVER TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE UP TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FLIRTING WITH
100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD ALSO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...SO WE HAVE NO POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A ONE
IN 20 CHANCE OF AN MCS FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA OR NORTH
TEXAS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA
WITH FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  92  73  92  74 /   0  -    0  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  73  92  74 /   0  10   0  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  73  92  74 /  -   20   0  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  72  91  73 /   0  -    0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  92  74  96  75 /  20  20   0  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  73  92  74 /   0  -    0  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  72  92  74 /  20  20  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  73  92  74 /  -   20   0  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  74  92  75 /  -   -    0  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  73  92  74 /  -   20   0  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  92  74  92  75 /  -   20  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KBRO 011924 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
224 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY IS DISSIPATING AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE OUTFLOW SPREADS OVER THE RGV. SO EXPECT MAINLY MID
AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLD COVER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LATER IN
THE TAF PERIOD THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
500 MB TROFFING THAT HELPED INITIATE THE MORNING CONV TODAY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER WEST TONIGHT AND THURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS
WILL IN TURN LIKELY LIMIT THE CONV POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURS. EXPECT ANY CONV THAT FORMS WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN
THE CURRENT TAF OUTLOOK FOR THE RGV. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A MIX CLOUD OF DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 4500 FEET AT MFE TO 12000 FEET AT EBG. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A MID
LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS
INCREASING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS NOW THROUGH 16Z. CONVECTION MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AT MFE. OTHERWISE...VCSH
AND VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES...ONE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO...TWO FEATURES ALOFT PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. ONE IS A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. THE OTHER IS A
WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST LINE...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. BROWNSVILLE RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF POPS. THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SUGGEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE STABLE AIRMASS AND
ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY. SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.06 INCHES PER THE 0Z BRO
SOUNDING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/TEXT
PRODUCTS FOR TODAY. THE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850
TO 650MB SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST NAM/GFS MOS
NUMBERS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500 MB LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARER
THE COAST...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA RE-CENTERS OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INHERITED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR NOW AND WERE LARGELY RETAINED...BUT WITH
THE 500 MB HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT EARLY NEXT WEEK...DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BEGIN TO BE RAISED BY FUTURE SHIFTS
SOON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 18 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 4.3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  78  89 /  10  30  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            77  93  76  93 /  10  30  10  20
MCALLEN              77  95  78  94 /  10  30   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  95  75  95 /  10  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  86  81  86 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...64
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65




000
FXUS64 KBRO 011924 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
224 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY IS DISSIPATING AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE OUTFLOW SPREADS OVER THE RGV. SO EXPECT MAINLY MID
AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLD COVER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LATER IN
THE TAF PERIOD THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
500 MB TROFFING THAT HELPED INITIATE THE MORNING CONV TODAY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER WEST TONIGHT AND THURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS
WILL IN TURN LIKELY LIMIT THE CONV POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURS. EXPECT ANY CONV THAT FORMS WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN
THE CURRENT TAF OUTLOOK FOR THE RGV. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A MIX CLOUD OF DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 4500 FEET AT MFE TO 12000 FEET AT EBG. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A MID
LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS
INCREASING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS NOW THROUGH 16Z. CONVECTION MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AT MFE. OTHERWISE...VCSH
AND VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES...ONE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO...TWO FEATURES ALOFT PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. ONE IS A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. THE OTHER IS A
WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST LINE...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. BROWNSVILLE RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF POPS. THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SUGGEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE STABLE AIRMASS AND
ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY. SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.06 INCHES PER THE 0Z BRO
SOUNDING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/TEXT
PRODUCTS FOR TODAY. THE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850
TO 650MB SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST NAM/GFS MOS
NUMBERS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500 MB LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARER
THE COAST...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA RE-CENTERS OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INHERITED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR NOW AND WERE LARGELY RETAINED...BUT WITH
THE 500 MB HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT EARLY NEXT WEEK...DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BEGIN TO BE RAISED BY FUTURE SHIFTS
SOON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 18 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 4.3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  78  89 /  10  30  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            77  93  76  93 /  10  30  10  20
MCALLEN              77  95  78  94 /  10  30   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  95  75  95 /  10  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  86  81  86 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...64
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65



000
FXUS64 KBRO 011924 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
224 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY IS DISSIPATING AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE OUTFLOW SPREADS OVER THE RGV. SO EXPECT MAINLY MID
AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLD COVER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LATER IN
THE TAF PERIOD THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
500 MB TROFFING THAT HELPED INITIATE THE MORNING CONV TODAY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER WEST TONIGHT AND THURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS
WILL IN TURN LIKELY LIMIT THE CONV POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURS. EXPECT ANY CONV THAT FORMS WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN
THE CURRENT TAF OUTLOOK FOR THE RGV. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A MIX CLOUD OF DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 4500 FEET AT MFE TO 12000 FEET AT EBG. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A MID
LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS
INCREASING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS NOW THROUGH 16Z. CONVECTION MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AT MFE. OTHERWISE...VCSH
AND VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES...ONE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO...TWO FEATURES ALOFT PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. ONE IS A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. THE OTHER IS A
WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST LINE...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. BROWNSVILLE RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF POPS. THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SUGGEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE STABLE AIRMASS AND
ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY. SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.06 INCHES PER THE 0Z BRO
SOUNDING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/TEXT
PRODUCTS FOR TODAY. THE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850
TO 650MB SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST NAM/GFS MOS
NUMBERS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500 MB LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARER
THE COAST...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA RE-CENTERS OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INHERITED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR NOW AND WERE LARGELY RETAINED...BUT WITH
THE 500 MB HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT EARLY NEXT WEEK...DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BEGIN TO BE RAISED BY FUTURE SHIFTS
SOON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 18 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 4.3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  78  89 /  10  30  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            77  93  76  93 /  10  30  10  20
MCALLEN              77  95  78  94 /  10  30   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  95  75  95 /  10  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  86  81  86 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...64
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65



000
FXUS64 KBRO 011924 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
224 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY IS DISSIPATING AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE OUTFLOW SPREADS OVER THE RGV. SO EXPECT MAINLY MID
AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLD COVER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TAF PERIOD ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LATER IN
THE TAF PERIOD THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
500 MB TROFFING THAT HELPED INITIATE THE MORNING CONV TODAY WILL
SHIFT FURTHER WEST TONIGHT AND THURS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DRIER AIR TO START FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS
WILL IN TURN LIKELY LIMIT THE CONV POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURS. EXPECT ANY CONV THAT FORMS WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN
THE CURRENT TAF OUTLOOK FOR THE RGV. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A MIX CLOUD OF DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 4500 FEET AT MFE TO 12000 FEET AT EBG. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A MID
LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS
INCREASING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS NOW THROUGH 16Z. CONVECTION MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AT MFE. OTHERWISE...VCSH
AND VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES...ONE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO...TWO FEATURES ALOFT PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. ONE IS A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. THE OTHER IS A
WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST LINE...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. BROWNSVILLE RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF POPS. THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SUGGEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE STABLE AIRMASS AND
ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY. SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.06 INCHES PER THE 0Z BRO
SOUNDING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/TEXT
PRODUCTS FOR TODAY. THE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850
TO 650MB SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST NAM/GFS MOS
NUMBERS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500 MB LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARER
THE COAST...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA RE-CENTERS OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INHERITED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR NOW AND WERE LARGELY RETAINED...BUT WITH
THE 500 MB HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT EARLY NEXT WEEK...DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BEGIN TO BE RAISED BY FUTURE SHIFTS
SOON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 18 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 4.3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  90  78  89 /  10  30  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            77  93  76  93 /  10  30  10  20
MCALLEN              77  95  78  94 /  10  30   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  95  75  95 /  10  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  86  81  86 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...64
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65




000
FXUS64 KHGX 011803
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
103 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
METRO HUBS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ROUND ONE OF RAPIDLY NORTH-MOVING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN
HUBS THROUGH 20Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM
DOWNDRAFT (VARIABLE) WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. A SECOND WAVE OF
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO IMPACT REGIONAL HUBS
BEFORE 22Z. QUICK MOVING CONVECTION WILL LOWER CATS DOWN TO MVFR
WITH THEIR NORTHERN PASSAGE AT 25 KNOTS. TREND IS DRIER GOING INTO
THURSDAY...OR LESS TSRA COVERAGE...AIDED BY THE PROGGED ADVECTION
OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM (OF ALL PLACES) THE
GULF. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WILL BE INCREASING POPS FOR PART OF THE AREA TODAY AS TSRA
ACTIVITY BEGINS SETTING UP IN A FAMILIAR PATTERN. WHILE THE SEA
BREEZE LINGERS NEAR/ALONG I-10 THIS AFTN...WILL BE KEEPING A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON STORMS JUST TO OUR SW. OUTFLOWS FROM THIS PCPN COULD
HELP ENHANCE /INCREASE DEVELOPMENT OVER SE TX LATER THIS
AFTN/EVE...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME THINKING THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
ALONG/NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR DOWN TO THE COAST. 41

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL /WITH SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE HOUSTON
METRO RECEIVING 3 TO OVER 5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS/ HAS ALLOWED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS OF
3 AM CDT THIS MORNING... A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS TYPICALLY
OBSERVED FOR JULY 1. LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND A LARGER COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE SOUTH
TOWARDS TAMPICO...MEXICO.

THIS COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS AND WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
TODAY AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE /4 KM NCEP WRF...ARW...NMM/ MOVES THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING...
REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE
RAP AND THE NAM12 SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM
THIS DISTURBANCE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THEIR SOLUTIONS OFFER
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRAJECTORIES FOR THE TROUGH... AND THIS WILL BE
THE BIG DETERMINING FACTOR FOR WHETHER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SEES ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THIS
FEATURE.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS IN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING
TO THE NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE AS WELL AS 00Z UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING EASTERLY
STEERING WINDS /AWAY FROM THE REGION/... THINK THE TROUGH AND BULK
OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN WITH IT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY HOWEVER... ANY OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD REACH THE
REGION AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW /SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS/ AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT. HOWEVER... WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE FORECAST
BASED ON TRENDS.

DESPITE ALL THAT... GIVEN SOME WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.8-1.9 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY AROUND 86 TO 89 DEGREES... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MARINE... COASTAL... AND INLAND ZONES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK
20-40 POPS COVERS THIS WELL AND ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A MID TO UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HELP LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY /BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/. OTHERWISE... HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT IN TO
FRIDAY... WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK...
WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS APPEARING TO BE ON TAP FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  92  76  92  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  93  78 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  89  81  89  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 011803
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
103 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
METRO HUBS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ROUND ONE OF RAPIDLY NORTH-MOVING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHERN
HUBS THROUGH 20Z...BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM
DOWNDRAFT (VARIABLE) WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. A SECOND WAVE OF
CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO IMPACT REGIONAL HUBS
BEFORE 22Z. QUICK MOVING CONVECTION WILL LOWER CATS DOWN TO MVFR
WITH THEIR NORTHERN PASSAGE AT 25 KNOTS. TREND IS DRIER GOING INTO
THURSDAY...OR LESS TSRA COVERAGE...AIDED BY THE PROGGED ADVECTION
OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM (OF ALL PLACES) THE
GULF. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WILL BE INCREASING POPS FOR PART OF THE AREA TODAY AS TSRA
ACTIVITY BEGINS SETTING UP IN A FAMILIAR PATTERN. WHILE THE SEA
BREEZE LINGERS NEAR/ALONG I-10 THIS AFTN...WILL BE KEEPING A VERY
CLOSE EYE ON STORMS JUST TO OUR SW. OUTFLOWS FROM THIS PCPN COULD
HELP ENHANCE /INCREASE DEVELOPMENT OVER SE TX LATER THIS
AFTN/EVE...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME THINKING THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
ALONG/NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR DOWN TO THE COAST. 41

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL /WITH SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE HOUSTON
METRO RECEIVING 3 TO OVER 5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS/ HAS ALLOWED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS OF
3 AM CDT THIS MORNING... A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS TYPICALLY
OBSERVED FOR JULY 1. LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND A LARGER COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE SOUTH
TOWARDS TAMPICO...MEXICO.

THIS COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS AND WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
TODAY AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE /4 KM NCEP WRF...ARW...NMM/ MOVES THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING...
REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE
RAP AND THE NAM12 SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM
THIS DISTURBANCE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THEIR SOLUTIONS OFFER
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRAJECTORIES FOR THE TROUGH... AND THIS WILL BE
THE BIG DETERMINING FACTOR FOR WHETHER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SEES ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THIS
FEATURE.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS IN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING
TO THE NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE AS WELL AS 00Z UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING EASTERLY
STEERING WINDS /AWAY FROM THE REGION/... THINK THE TROUGH AND BULK
OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN WITH IT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY HOWEVER... ANY OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD REACH THE
REGION AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW /SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS/ AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT. HOWEVER... WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE FORECAST
BASED ON TRENDS.

DESPITE ALL THAT... GIVEN SOME WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.8-1.9 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY AROUND 86 TO 89 DEGREES... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MARINE... COASTAL... AND INLAND ZONES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK
20-40 POPS COVERS THIS WELL AND ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A MID TO UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HELP LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY /BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/. OTHERWISE... HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT IN TO
FRIDAY... WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK...
WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS APPEARING TO BE ON TAP FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  92  76  92  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  93  78 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  89  81  89  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KAMA 011753 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1253 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND SEE NO REASON TO UPDATE
CURRENT FORECAST. GENERALLY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN NEXT
24 HOURS MAINLY DUE TO CIRRUS WORKING AROUND HIGH CENTER WHICH IS
RETREATING WESTWARD. RAIN CHCS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE MINIMAL ALTHOUGH
CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLD STORMS IN NW HALF. BETTER CHC WILL COME
THURS AS MOISTURE POOLS AND DEEPENS NEAR WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASED CAPE WILL PROVIDE A SLT RISK FOR SVR
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING MAIN THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREA WILL DEVELOP MAINLY HIGH BASED CIGS WELL ABOVE MVFR
RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN AVN ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS AT
TAF SITES. CURRENTLY CHCS FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN TAFS (AOB 20 POPS). BETTER CHCS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE THU AFTN AND
EVENING BEYOND CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR NRN TAF SITES SUCH
AS KGUY AND KDHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT...SPREADING SWD TO
INCLUDE KAMA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD ANY STORMS
DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT. IN ADDITION...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER ANY TERMINAL SITES WILL BE DIRECTLY
IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THE 12Z FCST CYCLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON NRN
TAF SITES LATE IN THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO DOMINANT FEATURES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS HELPING TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTH CENTRAL
NM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES GIVEN THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND
RESULTANT WEAK STEERING FLOW.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...FORCING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS OF
CO AND NM. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE NEXT WEEK. H85 TEMPS WARM 2-3C FROM YESTERDAY...REACHING 30-32C
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES...BUT
DON/T EXPECT THEM TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS BACK TOO MUCH.
GIVEN THE WARM H85 TEMPS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY HIT
100F.

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...LEADING TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE A GLANCING SHOT OF FORCING ON THE SOUTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS WAVE...BUT THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A
REINFORCING SURGE TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...LEADING TO INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION. THE NAM LOOKS TOO MOIST IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND IS THUS
LIKELY OVER FORECASTING CAPE VALUES. ACTUAL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WILL HINGE ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE
AREA AND MORE CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT BY FRIDAY...BUT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
BENEATH A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED BY ANY WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOCALLY HIGHER...SO
SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES ON INDEPENDENCE DAY ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...BUT BY SUNDAY INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY.
THIS DRY PERIOD WON/T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK
UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...DAMPENING THE UPPER RIDGE AND PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY...WHICH MAY STALL
IN THE AREA FOR A COUPLE DAYS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME WILL BEND NORTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...FURTHER ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY START TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA BY MID NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/88





000
FXUS64 KAMA 011753 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1253 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND SEE NO REASON TO UPDATE
CURRENT FORECAST. GENERALLY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN NEXT
24 HOURS MAINLY DUE TO CIRRUS WORKING AROUND HIGH CENTER WHICH IS
RETREATING WESTWARD. RAIN CHCS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE MINIMAL ALTHOUGH
CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT ISOLD STORMS IN NW HALF. BETTER CHC WILL COME
THURS AS MOISTURE POOLS AND DEEPENS NEAR WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASED CAPE WILL PROVIDE A SLT RISK FOR SVR
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING MAIN THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREA WILL DEVELOP MAINLY HIGH BASED CIGS WELL ABOVE MVFR
RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN AVN ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS AT
TAF SITES. CURRENTLY CHCS FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN TAFS (AOB 20 POPS). BETTER CHCS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE THU AFTN AND
EVENING BEYOND CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR NRN TAF SITES SUCH
AS KGUY AND KDHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT...SPREADING SWD TO
INCLUDE KAMA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD ANY STORMS
DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT. IN ADDITION...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER ANY TERMINAL SITES WILL BE DIRECTLY
IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THE 12Z FCST CYCLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON NRN
TAF SITES LATE IN THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO DOMINANT FEATURES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS HELPING TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTH CENTRAL
NM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES GIVEN THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND
RESULTANT WEAK STEERING FLOW.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...FORCING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS OF
CO AND NM. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE NEXT WEEK. H85 TEMPS WARM 2-3C FROM YESTERDAY...REACHING 30-32C
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES...BUT
DON/T EXPECT THEM TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS BACK TOO MUCH.
GIVEN THE WARM H85 TEMPS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY HIT
100F.

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...LEADING TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE A GLANCING SHOT OF FORCING ON THE SOUTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS WAVE...BUT THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A
REINFORCING SURGE TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...LEADING TO INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION. THE NAM LOOKS TOO MOIST IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND IS THUS
LIKELY OVER FORECASTING CAPE VALUES. ACTUAL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WILL HINGE ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE
AREA AND MORE CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT BY FRIDAY...BUT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
BENEATH A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED BY ANY WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOCALLY HIGHER...SO
SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES ON INDEPENDENCE DAY ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...BUT BY SUNDAY INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY.
THIS DRY PERIOD WON/T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK
UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...DAMPENING THE UPPER RIDGE AND PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY...WHICH MAY STALL
IN THE AREA FOR A COUPLE DAYS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME WILL BEND NORTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...FURTHER ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY START TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA BY MID NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/88






000
FXUS64 KCRP 011753
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS WHILE RAIN IS ONGOING. ANTICIPATE CLEARING
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS. SKIES REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RETURN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE OVER LRD/ALI AND CRP/VCT TO GO BETWEEN VFR/MVFR. BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY CIGS WILL LIFT AND CLEAR...WITH MAINLY CIRRUS
SPREAD OVER THE REGION. AS FOR WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
MAY BECOME GUSTY IN ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX...INCREASING TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
FLOW AGAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  91  77  92  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  92  76  92  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            76  96  76  98  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             75  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  91  80  91  80  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           74  94  74  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  93  77  93  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  91  80  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 011753
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS WHILE RAIN IS ONGOING. ANTICIPATE CLEARING
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS. SKIES REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RETURN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE OVER LRD/ALI AND CRP/VCT TO GO BETWEEN VFR/MVFR. BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY CIGS WILL LIFT AND CLEAR...WITH MAINLY CIRRUS
SPREAD OVER THE REGION. AS FOR WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
MAY BECOME GUSTY IN ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX...INCREASING TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
FLOW AGAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  91  77  92  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  92  76  92  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            76  96  76  98  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             75  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  91  80  91  80  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           74  94  74  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  93  77  93  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  91  80  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 011753
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS WHILE RAIN IS ONGOING. ANTICIPATE CLEARING
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS. SKIES REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RETURN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE OVER LRD/ALI AND CRP/VCT TO GO BETWEEN VFR/MVFR. BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY CIGS WILL LIFT AND CLEAR...WITH MAINLY CIRRUS
SPREAD OVER THE REGION. AS FOR WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
MAY BECOME GUSTY IN ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX...INCREASING TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
FLOW AGAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  91  77  92  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  92  76  92  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            76  96  76  98  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             75  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  91  80  91  80  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           74  94  74  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  93  77  93  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  91  80  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 011753
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS WHILE RAIN IS ONGOING. ANTICIPATE CLEARING
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS. SKIES REMAIN VFR THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RETURN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE OVER LRD/ALI AND CRP/VCT TO GO BETWEEN VFR/MVFR. BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY CIGS WILL LIFT AND CLEAR...WITH MAINLY CIRRUS
SPREAD OVER THE REGION. AS FOR WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
MAY BECOME GUSTY IN ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX...INCREASING TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
FLOW AGAIN BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  91  77  92  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  92  76  92  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            76  96  76  98  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             75  94  75  95  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  91  80  91  80  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           74  94  74  97  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        77  93  77  93  78  /  10  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  91  80  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KMAF 011746
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be out of the south to southeast throughout the period.
Gusty winds will be likely this afternoon into this evening for
MAF, FST, and PEQ. Elevated winds are expected again late Thursday
morning. Low ceilings are possible around 12z Thursday for MAF,
HOB, and INK.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. HAS SET UP CAMP
AND DOESN`T LOOK TO GO ANYWHERE SOON. WITHOUT ANY DISCERNIBLE
FEATURES, MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED
STORM POSSIBLE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WITH OUR REGION ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE DOOR IS
OPEN FOR MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTH, AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS MAY MOVE
ONCE THEY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST BUT
NEVER REALLY STRENGTHENS. MEANWHILE, A THETA-E AXIS SETS UP ACROSS
NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERING ITSELF OVERHEAD LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WILL UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY FOR AREAS THAT SAW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN YESTERDAY (MAINLY THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN). HIGHS
WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY CLIMB. AS OF RIGHT NOW, YOUR 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS GREAT
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90`S AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX AND SE NM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99



000
FXUS64 KMAF 011746
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be out of the south to southeast throughout the period.
Gusty winds will be likely this afternoon into this evening for
MAF, FST, and PEQ. Elevated winds are expected again late Thursday
morning. Low ceilings are possible around 12z Thursday for MAF,
HOB, and INK.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. HAS SET UP CAMP
AND DOESN`T LOOK TO GO ANYWHERE SOON. WITHOUT ANY DISCERNIBLE
FEATURES, MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED
STORM POSSIBLE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WITH OUR REGION ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE DOOR IS
OPEN FOR MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTH, AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS MAY MOVE
ONCE THEY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST BUT
NEVER REALLY STRENGTHENS. MEANWHILE, A THETA-E AXIS SETS UP ACROSS
NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERING ITSELF OVERHEAD LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WILL UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY FOR AREAS THAT SAW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN YESTERDAY (MAINLY THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN). HIGHS
WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY CLIMB. AS OF RIGHT NOW, YOUR 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS GREAT
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90`S AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX AND SE NM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99



000
FXUS64 KMAF 011746
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be out of the south to southeast throughout the period.
Gusty winds will be likely this afternoon into this evening for
MAF, FST, and PEQ. Elevated winds are expected again late Thursday
morning. Low ceilings are possible around 12z Thursday for MAF,
HOB, and INK.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. HAS SET UP CAMP
AND DOESN`T LOOK TO GO ANYWHERE SOON. WITHOUT ANY DISCERNIBLE
FEATURES, MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED
STORM POSSIBLE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WITH OUR REGION ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE DOOR IS
OPEN FOR MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTH, AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS MAY MOVE
ONCE THEY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST BUT
NEVER REALLY STRENGTHENS. MEANWHILE, A THETA-E AXIS SETS UP ACROSS
NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERING ITSELF OVERHEAD LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WILL UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY FOR AREAS THAT SAW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN YESTERDAY (MAINLY THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN). HIGHS
WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY CLIMB. AS OF RIGHT NOW, YOUR 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS GREAT
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90`S AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX AND SE NM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99




000
FXUS64 KEWX 011729 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...//18Z TAFS//
CONCERNS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CURRENT CONVECTION.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSAT/KSSF IN THE 19Z-21Z TIME FRAME
AND POSSIBLY KAUS 20Z-22Z. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY...UP
TO 40 KNOTS IN OR NEAR ANY CONVECTION. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND S/SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. BY SUNSET
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AND S/SE WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS.
KSAT/KSSF/KDRT WILL SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AFTER 10Z. KAUS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. AFTER 16Z THURSDAY WILL SEE VFR CIGS RETURN AND S/SE
WINDS 15-20 KNOTS. MOST LIKELY WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...
12Z RAOBS SHOW A MIXED PICTURE...BRO/CRP HAVE PW ABOVE 2
INCHES...UNCAPPED...AND WITH CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG. IN
CONTRAST...FWD/DRT HAVE PW BELOW 1.5 INCHES...SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING...AND CAPE OF MAYBE 500-1000 J/KG. THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
LOCATION AND SHARPNESS OF THE PW/CAPE GRADIENT. SATELLITE TOTAL PW
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GRADIENT IS RIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH AN ORIENTATION FROM HIGHEST SOUTHEAST TO LOWEST
NORTHWEST. THUS...THE FORECAST WAS JUST UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS SOUTHEAST...AND ABOUT THE SAME CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...HOURLY VARIABLES WERE RE-TRENDED THROUGH 00Z...BUT
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  30  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  30  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  50  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  20  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  30  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  40  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  40  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  40  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  50  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KFWD 011723
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF WACO.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED DAYTIME CU AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. DAYTIME
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
A LITTLE QUIETER MORNING AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TODAY TO ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLY HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR A SEABREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST AND IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR
WILL EXIST IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MICROBURST. AS A RESULT...WE
ONLY EXPECT SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. THURSDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND HOT DAY AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
GET LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP TOWARD THE OZARKS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 35-45 KT LLJ WILL
FEED INTO THE ELEVATED 850MB FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WITH MEAN STEERING CURRENTS PUSHING THE MCS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
RED RIVER OVERNIGHT PER FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SE ACROSS THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

BEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST NORTH-EAST OF THE DFW
METRO. THE UPPER FLOW DOES DAMPEN SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS EAST TX AND ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DAMPENS QUITE A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  76  92 /   5   5   5  10  30
WACO, TX              93  75  94  75  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  88 /   5   5  10  40  70
DENTON, TX            94  74  93  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          93  75  94  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  76  93 /   5   5   5  10  30
TERRELL, TX           93  75  94  75  92 /   5   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  74  92 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  73  93  73  92 /  20  10   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  94  73  94 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 011723
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF WACO.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED DAYTIME CU AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. DAYTIME
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
A LITTLE QUIETER MORNING AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TODAY TO ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLY HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR A SEABREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST AND IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR
WILL EXIST IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MICROBURST. AS A RESULT...WE
ONLY EXPECT SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. THURSDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND HOT DAY AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
GET LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP TOWARD THE OZARKS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 35-45 KT LLJ WILL
FEED INTO THE ELEVATED 850MB FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WITH MEAN STEERING CURRENTS PUSHING THE MCS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
RED RIVER OVERNIGHT PER FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SE ACROSS THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

BEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST NORTH-EAST OF THE DFW
METRO. THE UPPER FLOW DOES DAMPEN SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS EAST TX AND ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DAMPENS QUITE A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  76  92 /   5   5   5  10  30
WACO, TX              93  75  94  75  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  88 /   5   5  10  40  70
DENTON, TX            94  74  93  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          93  75  94  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  76  93 /   5   5   5  10  30
TERRELL, TX           93  75  94  75  92 /   5   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  74  92 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  73  93  73  92 /  20  10   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  94  73  94 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25



000
FXUS64 KSJT 011701
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. However,
stratus may develop for a few hours Thursday morning across much
of West Central Texas. Confidence is not not high enough to add
MVFR at the terminals. The winds will be south with gusts to 25
knots through this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low cloud development early this morning is more extensive than
previously anticipated, and now carrying ceilings at all TAF sites
except KABI. Ceilings are mostly MVFR, but occasionally dropping
below 1000ft at KSOA. Expect a quick breakup of the low cloud
field around mid-morning. A scattered to broken VFR-based cumulus
field is expected this afternoon, with generally clear skies
tonight. Some low cloud development is possible again early
Thursday morning across the southern part of our area, but with
model differences and uncertainty toward the end of the TAF
period, have not included a mention with this TAF package. South
winds will increase and become gusty today, with the higher wind
speeds and gusts expected at KABI.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight for our area. The upper
level high will remain centered over the Great Basin, with a ridge
extension southeast into west central Texas. This will provide
sufficient subsidence with slight mid-level warming to inhibit
shower/thunderstorm development in our area today. Any development
over the Hill Country should remain southeast of our area. Clear to
partly cloudy skies are expected, with patchy low cloud development
early this morning over roughly the southern third of our area, and
with a diurnal cumulus field by this afternoon. With increasing
surface pressure gradient, south winds will increase and become
gusty today. Highs this afternoon will be mostly in the 90-93 degree
range, with a few mid 90s in the northern Big Country. Overnight
lows will be mostly between 69 and 73 degrees, with a few mid 70s in
the northern Big Country.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)

Upper level ridge over the Great Basin may weaken just enough to
allow for better northerly flow and a weak front to make it into
the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. This may generate enough
convection to push the front itself or some outflow boundaries
south across the Red River towards the northern Big Country.
Chances are small, but enough there to keep the slight chance of
storms in the forecast for mainly Haskell and Throckmorton
counties for Thursday Night through Saturday. Elsewhere, ridge
will hold strong enough to keep chances for convection down to a
minimum.

Upper ridge takes builds east again and dominates by Sunday and
this should persist through much of next week. Dry and warm
forecast to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  72  92  74  92 /   0   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  92  70  91  72  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  91  69  87  71  89 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KSJT 011701
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. However,
stratus may develop for a few hours Thursday morning across much
of West Central Texas. Confidence is not not high enough to add
MVFR at the terminals. The winds will be south with gusts to 25
knots through this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low cloud development early this morning is more extensive than
previously anticipated, and now carrying ceilings at all TAF sites
except KABI. Ceilings are mostly MVFR, but occasionally dropping
below 1000ft at KSOA. Expect a quick breakup of the low cloud
field around mid-morning. A scattered to broken VFR-based cumulus
field is expected this afternoon, with generally clear skies
tonight. Some low cloud development is possible again early
Thursday morning across the southern part of our area, but with
model differences and uncertainty toward the end of the TAF
period, have not included a mention with this TAF package. South
winds will increase and become gusty today, with the higher wind
speeds and gusts expected at KABI.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight for our area. The upper
level high will remain centered over the Great Basin, with a ridge
extension southeast into west central Texas. This will provide
sufficient subsidence with slight mid-level warming to inhibit
shower/thunderstorm development in our area today. Any development
over the Hill Country should remain southeast of our area. Clear to
partly cloudy skies are expected, with patchy low cloud development
early this morning over roughly the southern third of our area, and
with a diurnal cumulus field by this afternoon. With increasing
surface pressure gradient, south winds will increase and become
gusty today. Highs this afternoon will be mostly in the 90-93 degree
range, with a few mid 90s in the northern Big Country. Overnight
lows will be mostly between 69 and 73 degrees, with a few mid 70s in
the northern Big Country.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)

Upper level ridge over the Great Basin may weaken just enough to
allow for better northerly flow and a weak front to make it into
the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. This may generate enough
convection to push the front itself or some outflow boundaries
south across the Red River towards the northern Big Country.
Chances are small, but enough there to keep the slight chance of
storms in the forecast for mainly Haskell and Throckmorton
counties for Thursday Night through Saturday. Elsewhere, ridge
will hold strong enough to keep chances for convection down to a
minimum.

Upper ridge takes builds east again and dominates by Sunday and
this should persist through much of next week. Dry and warm
forecast to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  72  92  74  92 /   0   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  92  70  91  72  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  91  69  87  71  89 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KSJT 011701
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. However,
stratus may develop for a few hours Thursday morning across much
of West Central Texas. Confidence is not not high enough to add
MVFR at the terminals. The winds will be south with gusts to 25
knots through this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low cloud development early this morning is more extensive than
previously anticipated, and now carrying ceilings at all TAF sites
except KABI. Ceilings are mostly MVFR, but occasionally dropping
below 1000ft at KSOA. Expect a quick breakup of the low cloud
field around mid-morning. A scattered to broken VFR-based cumulus
field is expected this afternoon, with generally clear skies
tonight. Some low cloud development is possible again early
Thursday morning across the southern part of our area, but with
model differences and uncertainty toward the end of the TAF
period, have not included a mention with this TAF package. South
winds will increase and become gusty today, with the higher wind
speeds and gusts expected at KABI.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight for our area. The upper
level high will remain centered over the Great Basin, with a ridge
extension southeast into west central Texas. This will provide
sufficient subsidence with slight mid-level warming to inhibit
shower/thunderstorm development in our area today. Any development
over the Hill Country should remain southeast of our area. Clear to
partly cloudy skies are expected, with patchy low cloud development
early this morning over roughly the southern third of our area, and
with a diurnal cumulus field by this afternoon. With increasing
surface pressure gradient, south winds will increase and become
gusty today. Highs this afternoon will be mostly in the 90-93 degree
range, with a few mid 90s in the northern Big Country. Overnight
lows will be mostly between 69 and 73 degrees, with a few mid 70s in
the northern Big Country.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)

Upper level ridge over the Great Basin may weaken just enough to
allow for better northerly flow and a weak front to make it into
the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. This may generate enough
convection to push the front itself or some outflow boundaries
south across the Red River towards the northern Big Country.
Chances are small, but enough there to keep the slight chance of
storms in the forecast for mainly Haskell and Throckmorton
counties for Thursday Night through Saturday. Elsewhere, ridge
will hold strong enough to keep chances for convection down to a
minimum.

Upper ridge takes builds east again and dominates by Sunday and
this should persist through much of next week. Dry and warm
forecast to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  72  92  74  92 /   0   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  92  70  91  72  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  91  69  87  71  89 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21





000
FXUS64 KSJT 011701
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Mainly VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. However,
stratus may develop for a few hours Thursday morning across much
of West Central Texas. Confidence is not not high enough to add
MVFR at the terminals. The winds will be south with gusts to 25
knots through this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low cloud development early this morning is more extensive than
previously anticipated, and now carrying ceilings at all TAF sites
except KABI. Ceilings are mostly MVFR, but occasionally dropping
below 1000ft at KSOA. Expect a quick breakup of the low cloud
field around mid-morning. A scattered to broken VFR-based cumulus
field is expected this afternoon, with generally clear skies
tonight. Some low cloud development is possible again early
Thursday morning across the southern part of our area, but with
model differences and uncertainty toward the end of the TAF
period, have not included a mention with this TAF package. South
winds will increase and become gusty today, with the higher wind
speeds and gusts expected at KABI.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight for our area. The upper
level high will remain centered over the Great Basin, with a ridge
extension southeast into west central Texas. This will provide
sufficient subsidence with slight mid-level warming to inhibit
shower/thunderstorm development in our area today. Any development
over the Hill Country should remain southeast of our area. Clear to
partly cloudy skies are expected, with patchy low cloud development
early this morning over roughly the southern third of our area, and
with a diurnal cumulus field by this afternoon. With increasing
surface pressure gradient, south winds will increase and become
gusty today. Highs this afternoon will be mostly in the 90-93 degree
range, with a few mid 90s in the northern Big Country. Overnight
lows will be mostly between 69 and 73 degrees, with a few mid 70s in
the northern Big Country.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)

Upper level ridge over the Great Basin may weaken just enough to
allow for better northerly flow and a weak front to make it into
the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. This may generate enough
convection to push the front itself or some outflow boundaries
south across the Red River towards the northern Big Country.
Chances are small, but enough there to keep the slight chance of
storms in the forecast for mainly Haskell and Throckmorton
counties for Thursday Night through Saturday. Elsewhere, ridge
will hold strong enough to keep chances for convection down to a
minimum.

Upper ridge takes builds east again and dominates by Sunday and
this should persist through much of next week. Dry and warm
forecast to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  72  92  74  92 /   0   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  92  70  91  72  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  91  69  87  71  89 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21






000
FXUS64 KHGX 011629
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1129 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE INCREASING POPS FOR PART OF THE AREA TODAY AS TSRA ACTIV-
ITY BEGINS SETTING UP IN A FAMILIAR PATTERN. WHILE THE SEABREEZE
LINGERS NEAR/ALONG I-10 THIS AFTN...WILL BE KEEPING A VERY CLOSE
EYE ON STORMS JUST TO OUR SW. OUTFLOWS FROM THIS PCPN COULD HELP
ENHANCE/INCREASE DEVELOPMENT OVER SE TX LATER THIS AFTN/EVE...IN-
CREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. AT
THIS TIME THINKING THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG/NEAR THE I-10
CORRIDOR DOWN TO THE COAST. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL /WITH SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE HOUSTON
METRO RECEIVING 3 TO OVER 5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS/ HAS ALLOWED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS OF
3 AM CDT THIS MORNING... A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS TYPICALLY
OBSERVED FOR JULY 1. LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND A LARGER COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE SOUTH
TOWARDS TAMPICO...MEXICO.

THIS COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS AND WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
TODAY AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE /4 KM NCEP WRF...ARW...NMM/ MOVES THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING...
REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE
RAP AND THE NAM12 SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM
THIS DISTURBANCE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THEIR SOLUTIONS OFFER
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRAJECTORIES FOR THE TROUGH... AND THIS WILL BE
THE BIG DETERMINING FACTOR FOR WHETHER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SEES ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THIS
FEATURE.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS IN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING
TO THE NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE AS WELL AS 00Z UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING EASTERLY
STEERING WINDS /AWAY FROM THE REGION/... THINK THE TROUGH AND BULK
OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN WITH IT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY HOWEVER... ANY OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD REACH THE
REGION AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW /SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS/ AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT. HOWEVER... WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE FORECAST
BASED ON TRENDS.

DESPITE ALL THAT... GIVEN SOME WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.8-1.9 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY AROUND 86 TO 89 DEGREES... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MARINE... COASTAL... AND INLAND ZONES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK
20-40 POPS COVERS THIS WELL AND ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A MID TO UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HELP LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY /BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/. OTHERWISE... HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT IN TO
FRIDAY... WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK...
WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS APPEARING TO BE ON TAP FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  75  92  76  92 /  40  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  76  93  76  93 /  50  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  89  81  89 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 011629
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1129 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE INCREASING POPS FOR PART OF THE AREA TODAY AS TSRA ACTIV-
ITY BEGINS SETTING UP IN A FAMILIAR PATTERN. WHILE THE SEABREEZE
LINGERS NEAR/ALONG I-10 THIS AFTN...WILL BE KEEPING A VERY CLOSE
EYE ON STORMS JUST TO OUR SW. OUTFLOWS FROM THIS PCPN COULD HELP
ENHANCE/INCREASE DEVELOPMENT OVER SE TX LATER THIS AFTN/EVE...IN-
CREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. AT
THIS TIME THINKING THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG/NEAR THE I-10
CORRIDOR DOWN TO THE COAST. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL /WITH SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE HOUSTON
METRO RECEIVING 3 TO OVER 5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS/ HAS ALLOWED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS OF
3 AM CDT THIS MORNING... A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS TYPICALLY
OBSERVED FOR JULY 1. LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND A LARGER COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE SOUTH
TOWARDS TAMPICO...MEXICO.

THIS COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS AND WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
TODAY AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE /4 KM NCEP WRF...ARW...NMM/ MOVES THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING...
REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE
RAP AND THE NAM12 SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM
THIS DISTURBANCE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THEIR SOLUTIONS OFFER
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRAJECTORIES FOR THE TROUGH... AND THIS WILL BE
THE BIG DETERMINING FACTOR FOR WHETHER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SEES ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THIS
FEATURE.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS IN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING
TO THE NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE AS WELL AS 00Z UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING EASTERLY
STEERING WINDS /AWAY FROM THE REGION/... THINK THE TROUGH AND BULK
OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN WITH IT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY HOWEVER... ANY OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD REACH THE
REGION AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW /SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS/ AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT. HOWEVER... WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE FORECAST
BASED ON TRENDS.

DESPITE ALL THAT... GIVEN SOME WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.8-1.9 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY AROUND 86 TO 89 DEGREES... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MARINE... COASTAL... AND INLAND ZONES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK
20-40 POPS COVERS THIS WELL AND ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A MID TO UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HELP LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY /BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/. OTHERWISE... HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT IN TO
FRIDAY... WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK...
WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS APPEARING TO BE ON TAP FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  75  92  76  92 /  40  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  76  93  76  93 /  50  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  89  81  89 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KEWX 011435
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
12Z RAOBS SHOW A MIXED PICTURE...BRO/CRP HAVE PW ABOVE 2
INCHES...UNCAPPED...AND WITH CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG. IN
CONTRAST...FWD/DRT HAVE PW BELOW 1.5 INCHES...SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING...AND CAPE OF MAYBE 500-1000 J/KG. THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
LOCATION AND SHARPNESS OF THE PW/CAPE GRADIENT. SATELLITE TOTAL PW
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GRADIENT IS RIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH AN ORIENTATION FROM HIGHEST SOUTHEAST TO LOWEST
NORTHWEST. THUS...THE FORECAST WAS JUST UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS SOUTHEAST...AND ABOUT THE SAME CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...HOURLY VARIABLES WERE RE-TRENDED THROUGH 00Z...BUT
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  30  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  30  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  50  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  20  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  30  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  40  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  40  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  40  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  50  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH



000
FXUS64 KEWX 011435
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
12Z RAOBS SHOW A MIXED PICTURE...BRO/CRP HAVE PW ABOVE 2
INCHES...UNCAPPED...AND WITH CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG. IN
CONTRAST...FWD/DRT HAVE PW BELOW 1.5 INCHES...SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING...AND CAPE OF MAYBE 500-1000 J/KG. THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
LOCATION AND SHARPNESS OF THE PW/CAPE GRADIENT. SATELLITE TOTAL PW
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GRADIENT IS RIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH AN ORIENTATION FROM HIGHEST SOUTHEAST TO LOWEST
NORTHWEST. THUS...THE FORECAST WAS JUST UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS SOUTHEAST...AND ABOUT THE SAME CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...HOURLY VARIABLES WERE RE-TRENDED THROUGH 00Z...BUT
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  30  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  30  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  50  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  20  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  30  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  40  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  40  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  40  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  50  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 011435
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
12Z RAOBS SHOW A MIXED PICTURE...BRO/CRP HAVE PW ABOVE 2
INCHES...UNCAPPED...AND WITH CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG. IN
CONTRAST...FWD/DRT HAVE PW BELOW 1.5 INCHES...SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING...AND CAPE OF MAYBE 500-1000 J/KG. THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
LOCATION AND SHARPNESS OF THE PW/CAPE GRADIENT. SATELLITE TOTAL PW
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GRADIENT IS RIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH AN ORIENTATION FROM HIGHEST SOUTHEAST TO LOWEST
NORTHWEST. THUS...THE FORECAST WAS JUST UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS SOUTHEAST...AND ABOUT THE SAME CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...HOURLY VARIABLES WERE RE-TRENDED THROUGH 00Z...BUT
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  30  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  30  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  50  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  20  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  30  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  40  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  40  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  40  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  50  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 011435
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
12Z RAOBS SHOW A MIXED PICTURE...BRO/CRP HAVE PW ABOVE 2
INCHES...UNCAPPED...AND WITH CAPE AOA 2000 J/KG. IN
CONTRAST...FWD/DRT HAVE PW BELOW 1.5 INCHES...SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING...AND CAPE OF MAYBE 500-1000 J/KG. THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE
LOCATION AND SHARPNESS OF THE PW/CAPE GRADIENT. SATELLITE TOTAL PW
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GRADIENT IS RIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH AN ORIENTATION FROM HIGHEST SOUTHEAST TO LOWEST
NORTHWEST. THUS...THE FORECAST WAS JUST UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS SOUTHEAST...AND ABOUT THE SAME CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.
OTHERWISE...HOURLY VARIABLES WERE RE-TRENDED THROUGH 00Z...BUT
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  30  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  30  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  50  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  20  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  30  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  40  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  40  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  40  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  50  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH



000
FXUS64 KCRP 011325
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
825 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF
CONVECTION IN BRO`S AREA IS RAPIDLY MOVG NORTHWARD. PWAT`S ACROSS
THE CWA ARE HIGHER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY PER THE CRP SOUNDING.
INSTABILITY AND LITTLE CIN COMBINED WITH THE BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURGE WILL LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN TAPERING OFF BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SURGE CURRENTLY HAS A NNW
COMPONENT. AM EXPECTING THE APEX OF THE BDRY TO RIDE GENERALLY N
WITH CONVECTION SPREADING FARTHER EAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION TRIES TO SET UP. AM ALSO EXPECTING CONVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS LIKELY DUE TO GUSTS OF
35-40KTS. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO GO SCT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WATERS...AND SPREAD THE 50 POP FARTHER N. ALSO CHANGED
VERBIGE FROM CHC TO SCT. UPDATES SHOULD BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM NEAR THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE DAY...WHILE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION MAY BE INFLUENCED BY
MID-LEVEL DRYING AS RIDGE FROM THE NORTH NUDGES SOUTHWARD. SHOWED
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH IFR VSBYS EXPECTED WITHIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EXPECT
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FORM OVER THE INLAND
COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY 08Z THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND VCT WITH MVFR VSBYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...HIGH MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES...REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT THIS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. SPEED CONVERGENCE
AXIS WILL FOCUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT
BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS YESTERDAY AS THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. BUT
MODELS KEEP THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION EARLY AND
GRADUALLY MOVE IT WEST INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS TODAY. WENT A
TAD LOWER ACROSS THE VICTORIA AREA WHERE SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MAY HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CATEGORY
HIGHER FOR THURSDAY. SWELLS WITH HIGHER PERIODS WILL RAISE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRONGER SUBSIDENCE
AND LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE IS PROG TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF BRING DEEPER MOISTURE NW FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
BEING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
MAY REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND A DECREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
HOT DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON EXPECTED HEAT INDICES WHICH MAY
REACH/EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  77  91  77  92  /  50  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          90  75  92  76  92  /  40  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  76  96  76  98  /  50  20  20  10  10
ALICE             91  75  94  75  95  /  50  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  81  91  80  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           92  74  94  74  97  /  40  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  77  93  77  93  /  50  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  79  91  80  91  /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 011325
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
825 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF
CONVECTION IN BRO`S AREA IS RAPIDLY MOVG NORTHWARD. PWAT`S ACROSS
THE CWA ARE HIGHER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY PER THE CRP SOUNDING.
INSTABILITY AND LITTLE CIN COMBINED WITH THE BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURGE WILL LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN TAPERING OFF BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SURGE CURRENTLY HAS A NNW
COMPONENT. AM EXPECTING THE APEX OF THE BDRY TO RIDE GENERALLY N
WITH CONVECTION SPREADING FARTHER EAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION TRIES TO SET UP. AM ALSO EXPECTING CONVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS LIKELY DUE TO GUSTS OF
35-40KTS. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO GO SCT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WATERS...AND SPREAD THE 50 POP FARTHER N. ALSO CHANGED
VERBIGE FROM CHC TO SCT. UPDATES SHOULD BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM NEAR THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE DAY...WHILE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION MAY BE INFLUENCED BY
MID-LEVEL DRYING AS RIDGE FROM THE NORTH NUDGES SOUTHWARD. SHOWED
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH IFR VSBYS EXPECTED WITHIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EXPECT
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FORM OVER THE INLAND
COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY 08Z THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND VCT WITH MVFR VSBYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...HIGH MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES...REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT THIS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. SPEED CONVERGENCE
AXIS WILL FOCUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT
BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS YESTERDAY AS THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. BUT
MODELS KEEP THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION EARLY AND
GRADUALLY MOVE IT WEST INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS TODAY. WENT A
TAD LOWER ACROSS THE VICTORIA AREA WHERE SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MAY HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CATEGORY
HIGHER FOR THURSDAY. SWELLS WITH HIGHER PERIODS WILL RAISE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRONGER SUBSIDENCE
AND LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE IS PROG TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF BRING DEEPER MOISTURE NW FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
BEING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
MAY REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND A DECREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
HOT DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON EXPECTED HEAT INDICES WHICH MAY
REACH/EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  77  91  77  92  /  50  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          90  75  92  76  92  /  40  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  76  96  76  98  /  50  20  20  10  10
ALICE             91  75  94  75  95  /  50  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  81  91  80  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           92  74  94  74  97  /  40  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  77  93  77  93  /  50  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  79  91  80  91  /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 011139 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM NEAR THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE DAY...WHILE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION MAY BE INFLUENCED BY
MID-LEVEL DRYING AS RIDGE FROM THE NORTH NUDGES SOUTHWARD. SHOWED
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH IFR VSBYS EXPECTED WITHIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EXPECT
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FORM OVER THE INLAND
COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY 08Z THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND VCT WITH MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...HIGH MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES...REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT THIS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. SPEED CONVERGENCE
AXIS WILL FOCUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT
BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS YESTERDAY AS THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. BUT
MODELS KEEP THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION EARLY AND
GRADUALLY MOVE IT WEST INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS TODAY. WENT A
TAD LOWER ACROSS THE VICTORIA AREA WHERE SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MAY HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CATEGORY
HIGHER FOR THURSDAY. SWELLS WITH HIGHER PERIODS WILL RAISE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRONGER SUBSIDENCE
AND LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE IS PROG TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF BRING DEEPER MOISTURE NW FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
BEING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
MAY REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND A DECREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
HOT DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON EXPECTED HEAT INDICES WHICH MAY
REACH/EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  77  91  77  92  /  50  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          90  75  92  76  92  /  30  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  76  96  76  98  /  50  20  20  10  10
ALICE             91  75  94  75  95  /  50  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  81  91  80  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           92  74  94  74  97  /  40  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  77  93  77  93  /  50  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  79  91  80  91  /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 011139 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM NEAR THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE DAY...WHILE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION MAY BE INFLUENCED BY
MID-LEVEL DRYING AS RIDGE FROM THE NORTH NUDGES SOUTHWARD. SHOWED
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH IFR VSBYS EXPECTED WITHIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EXPECT
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO FORM OVER THE INLAND
COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY 08Z THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND VCT WITH MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...HIGH MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES...REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT THIS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. SPEED CONVERGENCE
AXIS WILL FOCUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT
BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS YESTERDAY AS THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. BUT
MODELS KEEP THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION EARLY AND
GRADUALLY MOVE IT WEST INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS TODAY. WENT A
TAD LOWER ACROSS THE VICTORIA AREA WHERE SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MAY HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CATEGORY
HIGHER FOR THURSDAY. SWELLS WITH HIGHER PERIODS WILL RAISE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRONGER SUBSIDENCE
AND LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE IS PROG TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF BRING DEEPER MOISTURE NW FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
BEING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
MAY REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND A DECREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
HOT DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON EXPECTED HEAT INDICES WHICH MAY
REACH/EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  77  91  77  92  /  50  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          90  75  92  76  92  /  30  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  76  96  76  98  /  50  20  20  10  10
ALICE             91  75  94  75  95  /  50  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  81  91  80  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           92  74  94  74  97  /  40  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  77  93  77  93  /  50  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  79  91  80  91  /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KAMA 011136 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR NRN TAF SITES SUCH
AS KGUY AND KDHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT...SPREADING SWD TO
INCLUDE KAMA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD ANY STORMS
DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT. IN ADDITION...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER ANY TERMINAL SITES WILL BE DIRECTLY
IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THE 12Z FCST CYCLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON NRN
TAF SITES LATE IN THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO DOMINANT FEATURES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS HELPING TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTH CENTRAL
NM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES GIVEN THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND
RESULTANT WEAK STEERING FLOW.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...FORCING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS OF
CO AND NM. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE NEXT WEEK. H85 TEMPS WARM 2-3C FROM YESTERDAY...REACHING 30-32C
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES...BUT
DON/T EXPECT THEM TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS BACK TOO MUCH.
GIVEN THE WARM H85 TEMPS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY HIT
100F.

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...LEADING TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE A GLANCING SHOT OF FORCING ON THE SOUTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS WAVE...BUT THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A
REINFORCING SURGE TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...LEADING TO INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION. THE NAM LOOKS TOO MOIST IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND IS THUS
LIKELY OVER FORECASTING CAPE VALUES. ACTUAL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WILL HINGE ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE
AREA AND MORE CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT BY FRIDAY...BUT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
BENEATH A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED BY ANY WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOCALLY HIGHER...SO
SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES ON INDEPENDENCE DAY ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...BUT BY SUNDAY INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY.
THIS DRY PERIOD WON/T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK
UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...DAMPENING THE UPPER RIDGE AND PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY...WHICH MAY STALL
IN THE AREA FOR A COUPLE DAYS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME WILL BEND NORTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...FURTHER ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY START TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA BY MID NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 011136 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR NRN TAF SITES SUCH
AS KGUY AND KDHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT...SPREADING SWD TO
INCLUDE KAMA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD ANY STORMS
DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT. IN ADDITION...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER ANY TERMINAL SITES WILL BE DIRECTLY
IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THE 12Z FCST CYCLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON NRN
TAF SITES LATE IN THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO DOMINANT FEATURES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS HELPING TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTH CENTRAL
NM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES GIVEN THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND
RESULTANT WEAK STEERING FLOW.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...FORCING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS OF
CO AND NM. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE NEXT WEEK. H85 TEMPS WARM 2-3C FROM YESTERDAY...REACHING 30-32C
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES...BUT
DON/T EXPECT THEM TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS BACK TOO MUCH.
GIVEN THE WARM H85 TEMPS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY HIT
100F.

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...LEADING TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE A GLANCING SHOT OF FORCING ON THE SOUTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS WAVE...BUT THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A
REINFORCING SURGE TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...LEADING TO INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION. THE NAM LOOKS TOO MOIST IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND IS THUS
LIKELY OVER FORECASTING CAPE VALUES. ACTUAL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WILL HINGE ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE
AREA AND MORE CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT BY FRIDAY...BUT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
BENEATH A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED BY ANY WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOCALLY HIGHER...SO
SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES ON INDEPENDENCE DAY ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...BUT BY SUNDAY INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY.
THIS DRY PERIOD WON/T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK
UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...DAMPENING THE UPPER RIDGE AND PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY...WHICH MAY STALL
IN THE AREA FOR A COUPLE DAYS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME WILL BEND NORTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...FURTHER ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY START TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA BY MID NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 011136 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR NRN TAF SITES SUCH
AS KGUY AND KDHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT...SPREADING SWD TO
INCLUDE KAMA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD ANY STORMS
DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT. IN ADDITION...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER ANY TERMINAL SITES WILL BE DIRECTLY
IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THE 12Z FCST CYCLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON NRN
TAF SITES LATE IN THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO DOMINANT FEATURES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS HELPING TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTH CENTRAL
NM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES GIVEN THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND
RESULTANT WEAK STEERING FLOW.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...FORCING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS OF
CO AND NM. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE NEXT WEEK. H85 TEMPS WARM 2-3C FROM YESTERDAY...REACHING 30-32C
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES...BUT
DON/T EXPECT THEM TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS BACK TOO MUCH.
GIVEN THE WARM H85 TEMPS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY HIT
100F.

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...LEADING TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE A GLANCING SHOT OF FORCING ON THE SOUTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS WAVE...BUT THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A
REINFORCING SURGE TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...LEADING TO INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION. THE NAM LOOKS TOO MOIST IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND IS THUS
LIKELY OVER FORECASTING CAPE VALUES. ACTUAL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WILL HINGE ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE
AREA AND MORE CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT BY FRIDAY...BUT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
BENEATH A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED BY ANY WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOCALLY HIGHER...SO
SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES ON INDEPENDENCE DAY ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...BUT BY SUNDAY INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY.
THIS DRY PERIOD WON/T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK
UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...DAMPENING THE UPPER RIDGE AND PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY...WHICH MAY STALL
IN THE AREA FOR A COUPLE DAYS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME WILL BEND NORTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...FURTHER ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY START TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA BY MID NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 011136 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR NRN TAF SITES SUCH
AS KGUY AND KDHT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU TONIGHT...SPREADING SWD TO
INCLUDE KAMA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD ANY STORMS
DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD TO PERHAPS SCT. IN ADDITION...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER ANY TERMINAL SITES WILL BE DIRECTLY
IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THIS WEATHER
ELEMENT FROM THE 12Z FCST CYCLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON NRN
TAF SITES LATE IN THIS FCST PERIOD.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO DOMINANT FEATURES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS HELPING TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTH CENTRAL
NM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES GIVEN THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND
RESULTANT WEAK STEERING FLOW.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...FORCING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS OF
CO AND NM. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE NEXT WEEK. H85 TEMPS WARM 2-3C FROM YESTERDAY...REACHING 30-32C
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES...BUT
DON/T EXPECT THEM TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS BACK TOO MUCH.
GIVEN THE WARM H85 TEMPS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY HIT
100F.

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...LEADING TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE A GLANCING SHOT OF FORCING ON THE SOUTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS WAVE...BUT THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A
REINFORCING SURGE TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...LEADING TO INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION. THE NAM LOOKS TOO MOIST IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND IS THUS
LIKELY OVER FORECASTING CAPE VALUES. ACTUAL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WILL HINGE ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE
AREA AND MORE CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT BY FRIDAY...BUT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
BENEATH A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED BY ANY WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOCALLY HIGHER...SO
SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES ON INDEPENDENCE DAY ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...BUT BY SUNDAY INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY.
THIS DRY PERIOD WON/T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK
UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...DAMPENING THE UPPER RIDGE AND PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY...WHICH MAY STALL
IN THE AREA FOR A COUPLE DAYS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME WILL BEND NORTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...FURTHER ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY START TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA BY MID NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KEWX 011132 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNIALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  20  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  10  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  10  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  10  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  30  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  30  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  30  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  30  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  40  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05



000
FXUS64 KEWX 011132 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNIALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  20  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  10  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  10  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  10  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  30  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  30  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  30  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  30  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  40  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05



000
FXUS64 KEWX 011132 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNIALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  20  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  10  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  10  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  10  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  30  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  30  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  30  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  30  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  40  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05



000
FXUS64 KEWX 011132 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNIALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  20  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  10  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  10  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  10  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  30  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  30  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  30  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  30  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  40  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05



000
FXUS64 KEWX 011132 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNIALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  20  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  10  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  10  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  10  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  30  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  30  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  30  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  30  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  40  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KEWX 011132 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF CYCLE/

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KDRT WITH SOME BRIEF IFR MOMENTS
AS WELL. THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK AS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY AS EXPECTED BUT HAS NOT
IMPACTED KSAT/KSSF THUS FAR. THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS
LOWER IFR/MVFR DECK EDGES TOWARDS KSAT NOW THROUGH 14-15Z BEFORE
MIXING OUT. HAVE TAKEN THE MVFR CIGS OUT FOR NOW BUT WILL QUICKLY
AMEND IF CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO ADVANCE UPON KSAT. VFR SHOULD RETURN
TO ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH KDRT THE LAST TO
IMPROVE. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT KSSF/KSAT AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH TEMPO GROUP FRO TSRA 19-23Z. HAVE PLACED VCTS FOR
KAUS WITH A COUPLE HOURS DELAY BEYOND KSAT TIMING AND VCSH FOR KDRT
FOR 3 HOURS THIS AFTN (21-00Z). ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
EARLY TO MID EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT TIMES. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 30-
40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STRONGER STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNIALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  20  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  10  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  10  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  10  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  30  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  30  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  30  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  30  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  40  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05



000
FXUS64 KHGX 011131
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
631 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING BUT CONDS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN MOISTEN DURING THE AFTN. CONVECTIVE TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP THIS MORNING. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW THAT WILL HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION
BETWEEN 17-19Z SO WILL CARRY VCTS FOR AREA TAF SITES DURING THE
AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY SUNSET WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 12Z
THURSDAY BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL /WITH SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE HOUSTON
METRO RECEIVING 3 TO OVER 5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS/ HAS ALLOWED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS OF
3 AM CDT THIS MORNING... A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS TYPICALLY
OBSERVED FOR JULY 1. LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND A LARGER COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE SOUTH
TOWARDS TAMPICO...MEXICO.

THIS COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS AND WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
TODAY AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE /4 KM NCEP WRF...ARW...NMM/ MOVES THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING...
REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE
RAP AND THE NAM12 SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM
THIS DISTURBANCE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THEIR SOLUTIONS OFFER
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRAJECTORIES FOR THE TROUGH... AND THIS WILL BE
THE BIG DETERMINING FACTOR FOR WHETHER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SEES ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THIS
FEATURE.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS IN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING
TO THE NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE AS WELL AS 00Z UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING EASTERLY
STEERING WINDS /AWAY FROM THE REGION/... THINK THE TROUGH AND BULK
OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN WITH IT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY HOWEVER... ANY OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD REACH THE
REGION AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUSING MECHANSIM FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW /SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS/ AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT. HOWEVER... WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE FORECAST
BASED ON TRENDS.

DESPITE ALL THAT... GIVEN SOME WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.8-1.9 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY AROUND 86 TO 89 DEGREES... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MARINE... COASTAL... AND INLAND ZONES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK
20-40 POPS COVERS THIS WELL AND ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A MID TO UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HELP LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY /BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/. OTHERWISE... HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT IN TO
FRIDAY... WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK...
WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS APPEARING TO BE ON TAP FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY.  43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  75  92  76  92 /  30  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  76  93  76  93 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  89  81  89 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 011131
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
631 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING BUT CONDS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN MOISTEN DURING THE AFTN. CONVECTIVE TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP THIS MORNING. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW THAT WILL HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION
BETWEEN 17-19Z SO WILL CARRY VCTS FOR AREA TAF SITES DURING THE
AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY SUNSET WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 12Z
THURSDAY BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL /WITH SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE HOUSTON
METRO RECEIVING 3 TO OVER 5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS/ HAS ALLOWED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS OF
3 AM CDT THIS MORNING... A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS TYPICALLY
OBSERVED FOR JULY 1. LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND A LARGER COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE SOUTH
TOWARDS TAMPICO...MEXICO.

THIS COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS AND WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
TODAY AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE /4 KM NCEP WRF...ARW...NMM/ MOVES THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING...
REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE
RAP AND THE NAM12 SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM
THIS DISTURBANCE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THEIR SOLUTIONS OFFER
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRAJECTORIES FOR THE TROUGH... AND THIS WILL BE
THE BIG DETERMINING FACTOR FOR WHETHER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SEES ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THIS
FEATURE.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS IN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING
TO THE NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE AS WELL AS 00Z UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING EASTERLY
STEERING WINDS /AWAY FROM THE REGION/... THINK THE TROUGH AND BULK
OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN WITH IT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY HOWEVER... ANY OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD REACH THE
REGION AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUSING MECHANSIM FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW /SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS/ AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT. HOWEVER... WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE FORECAST
BASED ON TRENDS.

DESPITE ALL THAT... GIVEN SOME WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.8-1.9 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY AROUND 86 TO 89 DEGREES... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MARINE... COASTAL... AND INLAND ZONES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK
20-40 POPS COVERS THIS WELL AND ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A MID TO UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HELP LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY /BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/. OTHERWISE... HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT IN TO
FRIDAY... WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK...
WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS APPEARING TO BE ON TAP FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY.  43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  75  92  76  92 /  30  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  76  93  76  93 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  89  81  89 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KSJT 011126 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low cloud development early this morning is more extensive than
previously anticipated, and now carrying ceilings at all TAF sites
except KABI. Ceilings are mostly MVFR, but occasionally dropping
below 1000ft at KSOA. Expect a quick breakup of the low cloud
field around mid-morning. A scattered to broken VFR-based cumulus
field is expected this afternoon, with generally clear skies
tonight. Some low cloud development is possible again early
Thursday morning across the southern part of our area, but with
model differences and uncertainty toward the end of the TAF
period, have not included a mention with this TAF package. South
winds will increase and become gusty today, with the higher wind
speeds and gusts expected at KABI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight for our area. The upper
level high will remain centered over the Great Basin, with a ridge
extension southeast into west central Texas. This will provide
sufficient subsidence with slight mid-level warming to inhibit
shower/thunderstorm development in our area today. Any development
over the Hill Country should remain southeast of our area. Clear to
partly cloudy skies are expected, with patchy low cloud development
early this morning over roughly the southern third of our area, and
with a diurnal cumulus field by this afternoon. With increasing
surface pressure gradient, south winds will increase and become
gusty today. Highs this afternoon will be mostly in the 90-93 degree
range, with a few mid 90s in the northern Big Country. Overnight
lows will be mostly between 69 and 73 degrees, with a few mid 70s in
the northern Big Country.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)

Upper level ridge over the Great Basin may weaken just enough to
allow for better northerly flow and a weak front to make it into
the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. This may generate enough
convection to push the front itself or some outflow boundaries
south across the Red River towards the northern Big Country.
Chances are small, but enough there to keep the slight chance of
storms in the forecast for mainly Haskell and Throckmorton
counties for Thursday Night through Saturday. Elsewhere, ridge
will hold strong enough to keep chances for convection down to a
minimum.

Upper ridge takes builds east again and dominates by Sunday and
this should persist through much of next week. Dry and warm
forecast to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  72  92  74  92 /   0   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  92  70  91  72  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  91  69  87  71  89 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation and Short Term: 19
Long Term: 07









000
FXUS64 KSJT 011126 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low cloud development early this morning is more extensive than
previously anticipated, and now carrying ceilings at all TAF sites
except KABI. Ceilings are mostly MVFR, but occasionally dropping
below 1000ft at KSOA. Expect a quick breakup of the low cloud
field around mid-morning. A scattered to broken VFR-based cumulus
field is expected this afternoon, with generally clear skies
tonight. Some low cloud development is possible again early
Thursday morning across the southern part of our area, but with
model differences and uncertainty toward the end of the TAF
period, have not included a mention with this TAF package. South
winds will increase and become gusty today, with the higher wind
speeds and gusts expected at KABI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight for our area. The upper
level high will remain centered over the Great Basin, with a ridge
extension southeast into west central Texas. This will provide
sufficient subsidence with slight mid-level warming to inhibit
shower/thunderstorm development in our area today. Any development
over the Hill Country should remain southeast of our area. Clear to
partly cloudy skies are expected, with patchy low cloud development
early this morning over roughly the southern third of our area, and
with a diurnal cumulus field by this afternoon. With increasing
surface pressure gradient, south winds will increase and become
gusty today. Highs this afternoon will be mostly in the 90-93 degree
range, with a few mid 90s in the northern Big Country. Overnight
lows will be mostly between 69 and 73 degrees, with a few mid 70s in
the northern Big Country.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)

Upper level ridge over the Great Basin may weaken just enough to
allow for better northerly flow and a weak front to make it into
the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. This may generate enough
convection to push the front itself or some outflow boundaries
south across the Red River towards the northern Big Country.
Chances are small, but enough there to keep the slight chance of
storms in the forecast for mainly Haskell and Throckmorton
counties for Thursday Night through Saturday. Elsewhere, ridge
will hold strong enough to keep chances for convection down to a
minimum.

Upper ridge takes builds east again and dominates by Sunday and
this should persist through much of next week. Dry and warm
forecast to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  72  92  74  92 /   0   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  92  70  91  72  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  91  69  87  71  89 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation and Short Term: 19
Long Term: 07








000
FXUS64 KSJT 011126 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low cloud development early this morning is more extensive than
previously anticipated, and now carrying ceilings at all TAF sites
except KABI. Ceilings are mostly MVFR, but occasionally dropping
below 1000ft at KSOA. Expect a quick breakup of the low cloud
field around mid-morning. A scattered to broken VFR-based cumulus
field is expected this afternoon, with generally clear skies
tonight. Some low cloud development is possible again early
Thursday morning across the southern part of our area, but with
model differences and uncertainty toward the end of the TAF
period, have not included a mention with this TAF package. South
winds will increase and become gusty today, with the higher wind
speeds and gusts expected at KABI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight for our area. The upper
level high will remain centered over the Great Basin, with a ridge
extension southeast into west central Texas. This will provide
sufficient subsidence with slight mid-level warming to inhibit
shower/thunderstorm development in our area today. Any development
over the Hill Country should remain southeast of our area. Clear to
partly cloudy skies are expected, with patchy low cloud development
early this morning over roughly the southern third of our area, and
with a diurnal cumulus field by this afternoon. With increasing
surface pressure gradient, south winds will increase and become
gusty today. Highs this afternoon will be mostly in the 90-93 degree
range, with a few mid 90s in the northern Big Country. Overnight
lows will be mostly between 69 and 73 degrees, with a few mid 70s in
the northern Big Country.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)

Upper level ridge over the Great Basin may weaken just enough to
allow for better northerly flow and a weak front to make it into
the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. This may generate enough
convection to push the front itself or some outflow boundaries
south across the Red River towards the northern Big Country.
Chances are small, but enough there to keep the slight chance of
storms in the forecast for mainly Haskell and Throckmorton
counties for Thursday Night through Saturday. Elsewhere, ridge
will hold strong enough to keep chances for convection down to a
minimum.

Upper ridge takes builds east again and dominates by Sunday and
this should persist through much of next week. Dry and warm
forecast to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  72  92  74  92 /   0   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  92  70  91  72  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  91  69  87  71  89 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation and Short Term: 19
Long Term: 07









000
FXUS64 KSJT 011126 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
626 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Low cloud development early this morning is more extensive than
previously anticipated, and now carrying ceilings at all TAF sites
except KABI. Ceilings are mostly MVFR, but occasionally dropping
below 1000ft at KSOA. Expect a quick breakup of the low cloud
field around mid-morning. A scattered to broken VFR-based cumulus
field is expected this afternoon, with generally clear skies
tonight. Some low cloud development is possible again early
Thursday morning across the southern part of our area, but with
model differences and uncertainty toward the end of the TAF
period, have not included a mention with this TAF package. South
winds will increase and become gusty today, with the higher wind
speeds and gusts expected at KABI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight for our area. The upper
level high will remain centered over the Great Basin, with a ridge
extension southeast into west central Texas. This will provide
sufficient subsidence with slight mid-level warming to inhibit
shower/thunderstorm development in our area today. Any development
over the Hill Country should remain southeast of our area. Clear to
partly cloudy skies are expected, with patchy low cloud development
early this morning over roughly the southern third of our area, and
with a diurnal cumulus field by this afternoon. With increasing
surface pressure gradient, south winds will increase and become
gusty today. Highs this afternoon will be mostly in the 90-93 degree
range, with a few mid 90s in the northern Big Country. Overnight
lows will be mostly between 69 and 73 degrees, with a few mid 70s in
the northern Big Country.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)

Upper level ridge over the Great Basin may weaken just enough to
allow for better northerly flow and a weak front to make it into
the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. This may generate enough
convection to push the front itself or some outflow boundaries
south across the Red River towards the northern Big Country.
Chances are small, but enough there to keep the slight chance of
storms in the forecast for mainly Haskell and Throckmorton
counties for Thursday Night through Saturday. Elsewhere, ridge
will hold strong enough to keep chances for convection down to a
minimum.

Upper ridge takes builds east again and dominates by Sunday and
this should persist through much of next week. Dry and warm
forecast to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  72  92  74  92 /   0   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  92  70  91  72  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  91  69  87  71  89 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation and Short Term: 19
Long Term: 07








000
FXUS64 KLUB 011119
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR TO START WITH AT LEAST. A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS IN THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS AREA WITH SHREDS AS FAR NORTH AS KMAF AT DAYBREAK. WE
COULD YET SEE A FEW SMALLER PATCHES FORM NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF KLBB
IN THE UPCOMING TWO TO THREE HOURS BUT CHANCES FOR CEILINGS APPEAR
MINIMAL. A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL WIND MAX ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL
MIX OUT JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SO WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS FOR KPVW IN PARTICULAR NEAREST THE MAXIMUM...LESSER
SO AT KLBB. INVERSIONS ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT THUNDER CHANCES TODAY
WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVERHEAD. SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS
COULD APPROACH KPVW AND KCDS VERY LATE TONIGHT...DID NOT INCLUDE
WITHIN THIS TAF SET. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SUMMER-
TIME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS AN AXIS
EXTENDING OVER WEST TEXAS WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSIONS IN THE 600-700
MB AND ALSO THE 400-500 MB LAYERS. SOLUTIONS HAVE TRIMMED THUNDER
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH IN THE PANHANDLE FOR LATE TONIGHT ALIGNED
CLOSELY TO THE EXPECTED NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBSIDENT INVERSIONS.
WE WILL TRIM MENTION A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS WELL THOUGH STILL
HUGGING OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT. A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS THIS MORNING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MAY MIX ENOUGH FOR MODEST BREEZES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ANYWAY JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT ON TRACK FOR A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE LOCALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT PLAINS. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES IN THIS REGIME COMBINED WITH A DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SPELL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY. A
MEANDERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL...IMPACTING FOCUS
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT FARTHER SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OWING TO
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO BORDERLINE
SEVERE IF DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN INCREASE TOWARD THE 30 KNOT
BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
THURSDAY BEFORE THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS AND ROBUST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAKE SHAPE...FALLING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S TO ROUND
OUT THE WEEK.

MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS COME INDEPENDENCE DAY MORNING
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS NEARER THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF CYCLONIC
FLOW. UPPER RIDGING SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY WILL BRING INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S UNDER CLEARING SKIES FOR HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES FOLLOWED BY LOW-MID 90S SUNDAY.

WHILE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SEES AN UPTICK IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND...CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS MAY BRING SOME OF THIS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AS EARLY AS MONDAY. FURTHER AIDING LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW ROTATING OUT OF MANITOBA AND ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT MAKES
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE PARENT DISTURBANCE
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  66  89  63 /   0  20  30  40
TULIA         92  67  89  66 /   0  20  30  40
PLAINVIEW     91  66  89  67 /   0  10  20  40
LEVELLAND     92  67  91  67 /   0  10  20  40
LUBBOCK       92  69  92  69 /   0  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   91  65  92  65 /   0   0  10  30
BROWNFIELD    92  67  92  66 /   0  10  20  30
CHILDRESS     96  72  94  72 /   0  10  20  30
SPUR          92  70  91  68 /   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     94  73  95  71 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05



000
FXUS64 KLUB 011119
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR TO START WITH AT LEAST. A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS IN THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS AREA WITH SHREDS AS FAR NORTH AS KMAF AT DAYBREAK. WE
COULD YET SEE A FEW SMALLER PATCHES FORM NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF KLBB
IN THE UPCOMING TWO TO THREE HOURS BUT CHANCES FOR CEILINGS APPEAR
MINIMAL. A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL WIND MAX ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL
MIX OUT JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SO WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS FOR KPVW IN PARTICULAR NEAREST THE MAXIMUM...LESSER
SO AT KLBB. INVERSIONS ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT THUNDER CHANCES TODAY
WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVERHEAD. SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS
COULD APPROACH KPVW AND KCDS VERY LATE TONIGHT...DID NOT INCLUDE
WITHIN THIS TAF SET. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SUMMER-
TIME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS AN AXIS
EXTENDING OVER WEST TEXAS WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSIONS IN THE 600-700
MB AND ALSO THE 400-500 MB LAYERS. SOLUTIONS HAVE TRIMMED THUNDER
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH IN THE PANHANDLE FOR LATE TONIGHT ALIGNED
CLOSELY TO THE EXPECTED NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBSIDENT INVERSIONS.
WE WILL TRIM MENTION A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS WELL THOUGH STILL
HUGGING OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT. A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS THIS MORNING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MAY MIX ENOUGH FOR MODEST BREEZES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ANYWAY JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT ON TRACK FOR A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE LOCALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT PLAINS. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES IN THIS REGIME COMBINED WITH A DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SPELL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY. A
MEANDERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL...IMPACTING FOCUS
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT FARTHER SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OWING TO
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO BORDERLINE
SEVERE IF DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN INCREASE TOWARD THE 30 KNOT
BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
THURSDAY BEFORE THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS AND ROBUST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAKE SHAPE...FALLING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S TO ROUND
OUT THE WEEK.

MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS COME INDEPENDENCE DAY MORNING
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS NEARER THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF CYCLONIC
FLOW. UPPER RIDGING SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY WILL BRING INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S UNDER CLEARING SKIES FOR HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES FOLLOWED BY LOW-MID 90S SUNDAY.

WHILE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SEES AN UPTICK IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND...CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS MAY BRING SOME OF THIS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AS EARLY AS MONDAY. FURTHER AIDING LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW ROTATING OUT OF MANITOBA AND ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT MAKES
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE PARENT DISTURBANCE
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  66  89  63 /   0  20  30  40
TULIA         92  67  89  66 /   0  20  30  40
PLAINVIEW     91  66  89  67 /   0  10  20  40
LEVELLAND     92  67  91  67 /   0  10  20  40
LUBBOCK       92  69  92  69 /   0  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   91  65  92  65 /   0   0  10  30
BROWNFIELD    92  67  92  66 /   0  10  20  30
CHILDRESS     96  72  94  72 /   0  10  20  30
SPUR          92  70  91  68 /   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     94  73  95  71 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05



000
FXUS64 KLUB 011119
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR TO START WITH AT LEAST. A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS IN THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS AREA WITH SHREDS AS FAR NORTH AS KMAF AT DAYBREAK. WE
COULD YET SEE A FEW SMALLER PATCHES FORM NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF KLBB
IN THE UPCOMING TWO TO THREE HOURS BUT CHANCES FOR CEILINGS APPEAR
MINIMAL. A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL WIND MAX ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL
MIX OUT JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SO WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS FOR KPVW IN PARTICULAR NEAREST THE MAXIMUM...LESSER
SO AT KLBB. INVERSIONS ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT THUNDER CHANCES TODAY
WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVERHEAD. SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS
COULD APPROACH KPVW AND KCDS VERY LATE TONIGHT...DID NOT INCLUDE
WITHIN THIS TAF SET. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SUMMER-
TIME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS AN AXIS
EXTENDING OVER WEST TEXAS WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSIONS IN THE 600-700
MB AND ALSO THE 400-500 MB LAYERS. SOLUTIONS HAVE TRIMMED THUNDER
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH IN THE PANHANDLE FOR LATE TONIGHT ALIGNED
CLOSELY TO THE EXPECTED NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBSIDENT INVERSIONS.
WE WILL TRIM MENTION A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS WELL THOUGH STILL
HUGGING OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT. A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS THIS MORNING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MAY MIX ENOUGH FOR MODEST BREEZES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ANYWAY JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT ON TRACK FOR A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE LOCALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT PLAINS. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES IN THIS REGIME COMBINED WITH A DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SPELL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY. A
MEANDERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL...IMPACTING FOCUS
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT FARTHER SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OWING TO
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO BORDERLINE
SEVERE IF DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN INCREASE TOWARD THE 30 KNOT
BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
THURSDAY BEFORE THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS AND ROBUST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAKE SHAPE...FALLING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S TO ROUND
OUT THE WEEK.

MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS COME INDEPENDENCE DAY MORNING
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS NEARER THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF CYCLONIC
FLOW. UPPER RIDGING SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY WILL BRING INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S UNDER CLEARING SKIES FOR HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES FOLLOWED BY LOW-MID 90S SUNDAY.

WHILE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SEES AN UPTICK IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND...CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS MAY BRING SOME OF THIS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AS EARLY AS MONDAY. FURTHER AIDING LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW ROTATING OUT OF MANITOBA AND ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT MAKES
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE PARENT DISTURBANCE
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  66  89  63 /   0  20  30  40
TULIA         92  67  89  66 /   0  20  30  40
PLAINVIEW     91  66  89  67 /   0  10  20  40
LEVELLAND     92  67  91  67 /   0  10  20  40
LUBBOCK       92  69  92  69 /   0  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   91  65  92  65 /   0   0  10  30
BROWNFIELD    92  67  92  66 /   0  10  20  30
CHILDRESS     96  72  94  72 /   0  10  20  30
SPUR          92  70  91  68 /   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     94  73  95  71 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




000
FXUS64 KFWD 011104
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR
FROM TRL TO JUST EAST OF ACT...MOST LIKELY USHERED IN THIS
MORNING BY A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
VEERED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CIGS EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. WE
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT AT THIS TIME
THE BELIEF IS THAT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

AS FAR AS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION...THE MOST RECENT MODEL
DATA DOES INDICATE ANOTHER NORTHWARD SURGE OF OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE FROM A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP A LID ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE METROPLEX. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT KACT COULD SEE A ROGUE
SHOWER OR STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
A LITTLE QUIETER MORNING AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TODAY TO ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLY HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR A SEABREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST AND IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR
WILL EXIST IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MICROBURST. AS A RESULT...WE
ONLY EXPECT SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. THURSDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND HOT DAY AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
GET LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP TOWARD THE OZARKS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 35-45 KT LLJ WILL
FEED INTO THE ELEVATED 850MB FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WITH MEAN STEERING CURRENTS PUSHING THE MCS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
RED RIVER OVERNIGHT PER FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SE ACROSS THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

BEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST NORTH-EAST OF THE DFW
METRO. THE UPPER FLOW DOES DAMPEN SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS EAST TX AND ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DAMPENS QUITE A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  76  92 /   5   5   5  10  30
WACO, TX              93  75  94  75  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  88 /   5   5  10  40  70
DENTON, TX            94  74  93  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          93  75  94  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  76  93 /   5   5   5  10  30
TERRELL, TX           93  75  94  75  92 /   5   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  74  92 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  73  93  73  92 /  20  10   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  94  73  94 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 011104
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR
FROM TRL TO JUST EAST OF ACT...MOST LIKELY USHERED IN THIS
MORNING BY A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
VEERED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CIGS EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. WE
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT AT THIS TIME
THE BELIEF IS THAT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

AS FAR AS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION...THE MOST RECENT MODEL
DATA DOES INDICATE ANOTHER NORTHWARD SURGE OF OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE FROM A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP A LID ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE METROPLEX. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT KACT COULD SEE A ROGUE
SHOWER OR STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
A LITTLE QUIETER MORNING AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TODAY TO ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLY HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR A SEABREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST AND IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR
WILL EXIST IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MICROBURST. AS A RESULT...WE
ONLY EXPECT SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. THURSDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND HOT DAY AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
GET LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP TOWARD THE OZARKS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 35-45 KT LLJ WILL
FEED INTO THE ELEVATED 850MB FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WITH MEAN STEERING CURRENTS PUSHING THE MCS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
RED RIVER OVERNIGHT PER FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SE ACROSS THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

BEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST NORTH-EAST OF THE DFW
METRO. THE UPPER FLOW DOES DAMPEN SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS EAST TX AND ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DAMPENS QUITE A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  76  92 /   5   5   5  10  30
WACO, TX              93  75  94  75  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  88 /   5   5  10  40  70
DENTON, TX            94  74  93  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          93  75  94  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  76  93 /   5   5   5  10  30
TERRELL, TX           93  75  94  75  92 /   5   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  74  92 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  73  93  73  92 /  20  10   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  94  73  94 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 011104
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR
FROM TRL TO JUST EAST OF ACT...MOST LIKELY USHERED IN THIS
MORNING BY A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
VEERED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CIGS EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. WE
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT AT THIS TIME
THE BELIEF IS THAT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

AS FAR AS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION...THE MOST RECENT MODEL
DATA DOES INDICATE ANOTHER NORTHWARD SURGE OF OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE FROM A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP A LID ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE METROPLEX. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT KACT COULD SEE A ROGUE
SHOWER OR STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
A LITTLE QUIETER MORNING AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TODAY TO ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLY HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR A SEABREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST AND IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR
WILL EXIST IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MICROBURST. AS A RESULT...WE
ONLY EXPECT SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. THURSDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND HOT DAY AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
GET LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP TOWARD THE OZARKS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 35-45 KT LLJ WILL
FEED INTO THE ELEVATED 850MB FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WITH MEAN STEERING CURRENTS PUSHING THE MCS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
RED RIVER OVERNIGHT PER FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SE ACROSS THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

BEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST NORTH-EAST OF THE DFW
METRO. THE UPPER FLOW DOES DAMPEN SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS EAST TX AND ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DAMPENS QUITE A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  76  92 /   5   5   5  10  30
WACO, TX              93  75  94  75  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  88 /   5   5  10  40  70
DENTON, TX            94  74  93  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          93  75  94  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  76  93 /   5   5   5  10  30
TERRELL, TX           93  75  94  75  92 /   5   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  74  92 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  73  93  73  92 /  20  10   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  94  73  94 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 011104
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR
FROM TRL TO JUST EAST OF ACT...MOST LIKELY USHERED IN THIS
MORNING BY A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
VEERED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CIGS EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. WE
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT AT THIS TIME
THE BELIEF IS THAT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

AS FAR AS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION...THE MOST RECENT MODEL
DATA DOES INDICATE ANOTHER NORTHWARD SURGE OF OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE FROM A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP A LID ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE METROPLEX. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT KACT COULD SEE A ROGUE
SHOWER OR STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
A LITTLE QUIETER MORNING AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TODAY TO ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLY HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR A SEABREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST AND IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR
WILL EXIST IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MICROBURST. AS A RESULT...WE
ONLY EXPECT SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. THURSDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND HOT DAY AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
GET LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP TOWARD THE OZARKS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 35-45 KT LLJ WILL
FEED INTO THE ELEVATED 850MB FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WITH MEAN STEERING CURRENTS PUSHING THE MCS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
RED RIVER OVERNIGHT PER FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SE ACROSS THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

BEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST NORTH-EAST OF THE DFW
METRO. THE UPPER FLOW DOES DAMPEN SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS EAST TX AND ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DAMPENS QUITE A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  76  92 /   5   5   5  10  30
WACO, TX              93  75  94  75  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  88 /   5   5  10  40  70
DENTON, TX            94  74  93  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          93  75  94  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  76  93 /   5   5   5  10  30
TERRELL, TX           93  75  94  75  92 /   5   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  74  92 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  73  93  73  92 /  20  10   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  94  73  94 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBRO 011103 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
603 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
A MIX CLOUD OF DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 4500 FEET AT MFE TO 12000 FEET AT EBG. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A MID
LEVEL FEATURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS
INCREASING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREA AIRPORTS NOW THROUGH 16Z. CONVECTION MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AT MFE. OTHERWISE...VCSH
AND VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES...ONE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO...TWO FEATURES ALOFT PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. ONE IS A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. THE OTHER IS A
WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST LINE...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. BROWNSVILLE RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF POPS. THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SUGGEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE STABLE AIRMASS AND
ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY. SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.06 INCHES PER THE 0Z BRO
SOUNDING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/TEXT
PRODUCTS FOR TODAY. THE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850
TO 650MB SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST NAM/GFS MOS
NUMBERS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500 MB LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARER
THE COAST...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA RE-CENTERS OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INHERITED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR NOW AND WERE LARGELY RETAINED...BUT WITH
THE 500 MB HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT EARLY NEXT WEEK...DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BEGIN TO BE RAISED BY FUTURE SHIFTS
SOON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 18 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 4.3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63



000
FXUS64 KMAF 010942
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
442 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MUCH QUIETER MORNING THIS AM, W/A FEW HIGH CLOUD OVER WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. STILL A LOT OF
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS DUE TO LAST NIGHT`S MCS, AND
STRATUS REMAINS IN PLAY. LATEST BUFFER SOUNDINGS BRING IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF IFR CIGS AT KMAF, AND MVFR AT KFST AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, LOW-BASED CU FIELD IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A 35+KT LLJ RESUMES NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. HAS SET UP CAMP
AND DOESN`T LOOK TO GO ANYWHERE SOON. WITHOUT ANY DISCERNIBLE
FEATURES, MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED
STORM POSSIBLE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WITH OUR REGION ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE DOOR IS
OPEN FOR MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTH, AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS MAY MOVE
ONCE THEY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST BUT
NEVER REALLY STRENGTHENS. MEANWHILE, A THETA-E AXIS SETS UP ACROSS
NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERING ITSELF OVERHEAD LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WILL UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY FOR AREAS THAT SAW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN YESTERDAY (MAINLY THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN). HIGHS
WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY CLIMB. AS OF RIGHT NOW, YOUR 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS GREAT
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90`S AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX AND SE NM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44



000
FXUS64 KMAF 010942
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
442 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MUCH QUIETER MORNING THIS AM, W/A FEW HIGH CLOUD OVER WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. STILL A LOT OF
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS DUE TO LAST NIGHT`S MCS, AND
STRATUS REMAINS IN PLAY. LATEST BUFFER SOUNDINGS BRING IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF IFR CIGS AT KMAF, AND MVFR AT KFST AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, LOW-BASED CU FIELD IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A 35+KT LLJ RESUMES NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. HAS SET UP CAMP
AND DOESN`T LOOK TO GO ANYWHERE SOON. WITHOUT ANY DISCERNIBLE
FEATURES, MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED
STORM POSSIBLE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WITH OUR REGION ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE DOOR IS
OPEN FOR MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTH, AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS MAY MOVE
ONCE THEY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST BUT
NEVER REALLY STRENGTHENS. MEANWHILE, A THETA-E AXIS SETS UP ACROSS
NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERING ITSELF OVERHEAD LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WILL UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY FOR AREAS THAT SAW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN YESTERDAY (MAINLY THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN). HIGHS
WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY CLIMB. AS OF RIGHT NOW, YOUR 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS GREAT
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90`S AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX AND SE NM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44




000
FXUS64 KMAF 010942
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
442 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MUCH QUIETER MORNING THIS AM, W/A FEW HIGH CLOUD OVER WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. STILL A LOT OF
MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS DUE TO LAST NIGHT`S MCS, AND
STRATUS REMAINS IN PLAY. LATEST BUFFER SOUNDINGS BRING IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS OF IFR CIGS AT KMAF, AND MVFR AT KFST AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, LOW-BASED CU FIELD IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A 35+KT LLJ RESUMES NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. HAS SET UP CAMP
AND DOESN`T LOOK TO GO ANYWHERE SOON. WITHOUT ANY DISCERNIBLE
FEATURES, MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED
STORM POSSIBLE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WITH OUR REGION ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE DOOR IS
OPEN FOR MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTH, AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS MAY MOVE
ONCE THEY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST BUT
NEVER REALLY STRENGTHENS. MEANWHILE, A THETA-E AXIS SETS UP ACROSS
NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERING ITSELF OVERHEAD LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WILL UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY FOR AREAS THAT SAW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN YESTERDAY (MAINLY THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN). HIGHS
WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY CLIMB. AS OF RIGHT NOW, YOUR 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS GREAT
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90`S AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX AND SE NM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44



000
FXUS64 KAMA 010933
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
433 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO DOMINANT FEATURES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS HELPING TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTH CENTRAL
NM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES GIVEN THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND
RESULTANT WEAK STEERING FLOW.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...FORCING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS OF
CO AND NM. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE NEXT WEEK. H85 TEMPS WARM 2-3C FROM YESTERDAY...REACHING 30-32C
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES...BUT
DON/T EXPECT THEM TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS BACK TOO MUCH.
GIVEN THE WARM H85 TEMPS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY HIT
100F.

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...LEADING TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE A GLANCING SHOT OF FORCING ON THE SOUTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS WAVE...BUT THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A
REINFORCING SURGE TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...LEADING TO INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION. THE NAM LOOKS TOO MOIST IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND IS THUS
LIKELY OVER FORECASTING CAPE VALUES. ACTUAL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WILL HINGE ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE
AREA AND MORE CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT BY FRIDAY...BUT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
BENEATH A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED BY ANY WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOCALLY HIGHER...SO
SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES ON INDEPENDENCE DAY ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...BUT BY SUNDAY INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY.
THIS DRY PERIOD WON/T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK
UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...DAMPENING THE UPPER RIDGE AND PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY...WHICH MAY STALL
IN THE AREA FOR A COUPLE DAYS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME WILL BEND NORTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...FURTHER ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY START TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA BY MID NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                94  69  89  66  85 /   5  20  30  40  40
BEAVER OK                 100  70  90  67  89 /  20  20  40  40  30
BOISE CITY OK              97  66  88  63  86 /  20  30  40  40  30
BORGER TX                  98  72  92  68  87 /  10  20  30  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              99  70  92  66  88 /  10  20  30  40  40
CANYON TX                  94  67  91  65  85 /   5  20  30  40  40
CLARENDON TX               94  69  90  68  87 /   5  20  20  40  30
DALHART TX                 99  67  91  64  87 /  20  30  30  40  40
GUYMON OK                 100  69  90  66  88 /  20  20  40  40  30
HEREFORD TX                93  67  91  66  86 /   5  20  30  40  40
LIPSCOMB TX                98  71  90  67  88 /  10  20  40  40  30
PAMPA TX                   94  69  89  66  87 /   5  20  30  40  30
SHAMROCK TX                95  70  91  68  88 /   5  20  20  40  30
WELLINGTON TX              96  72  92  70  90 /   5  20  20  40  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/08






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010933
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
433 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO DOMINANT FEATURES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS HELPING TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTH CENTRAL
NM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES GIVEN THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND
RESULTANT WEAK STEERING FLOW.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...FORCING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS OF
CO AND NM. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE NEXT WEEK. H85 TEMPS WARM 2-3C FROM YESTERDAY...REACHING 30-32C
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES...BUT
DON/T EXPECT THEM TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS BACK TOO MUCH.
GIVEN THE WARM H85 TEMPS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY HIT
100F.

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...LEADING TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE A GLANCING SHOT OF FORCING ON THE SOUTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS WAVE...BUT THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A
REINFORCING SURGE TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...LEADING TO INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION. THE NAM LOOKS TOO MOIST IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND IS THUS
LIKELY OVER FORECASTING CAPE VALUES. ACTUAL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WILL HINGE ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE
AREA AND MORE CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT BY FRIDAY...BUT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
BENEATH A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED BY ANY WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOCALLY HIGHER...SO
SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES ON INDEPENDENCE DAY ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...BUT BY SUNDAY INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY.
THIS DRY PERIOD WON/T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK
UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...DAMPENING THE UPPER RIDGE AND PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY...WHICH MAY STALL
IN THE AREA FOR A COUPLE DAYS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME WILL BEND NORTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...FURTHER ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY START TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA BY MID NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                94  69  89  66  85 /   5  20  30  40  40
BEAVER OK                 100  70  90  67  89 /  20  20  40  40  30
BOISE CITY OK              97  66  88  63  86 /  20  30  40  40  30
BORGER TX                  98  72  92  68  87 /  10  20  30  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              99  70  92  66  88 /  10  20  30  40  40
CANYON TX                  94  67  91  65  85 /   5  20  30  40  40
CLARENDON TX               94  69  90  68  87 /   5  20  20  40  30
DALHART TX                 99  67  91  64  87 /  20  30  30  40  40
GUYMON OK                 100  69  90  66  88 /  20  20  40  40  30
HEREFORD TX                93  67  91  66  86 /   5  20  30  40  40
LIPSCOMB TX                98  71  90  67  88 /  10  20  40  40  30
PAMPA TX                   94  69  89  66  87 /   5  20  30  40  30
SHAMROCK TX                95  70  91  68  88 /   5  20  20  40  30
WELLINGTON TX              96  72  92  70  90 /   5  20  20  40  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/08





000
FXUS64 KAMA 010933
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
433 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO DOMINANT FEATURES. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WAS HELPING TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTH CENTRAL
NM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES GIVEN THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AND
RESULTANT WEAK STEERING FLOW.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...FORCING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO COME LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS OF
CO AND NM. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES...TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE NEXT WEEK. H85 TEMPS WARM 2-3C FROM YESTERDAY...REACHING 30-32C
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES...BUT
DON/T EXPECT THEM TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS BACK TOO MUCH.
GIVEN THE WARM H85 TEMPS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY HIT
100F.

A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...LEADING TO INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. A
STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE A GLANCING SHOT OF FORCING ON THE SOUTHWEST
FRINGE OF THIS WAVE...BUT THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A
REINFORCING SURGE TO THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...LEADING TO INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION. THE NAM LOOKS TOO MOIST IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND IS THUS
LIKELY OVER FORECASTING CAPE VALUES. ACTUAL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
WILL HINGE ON AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL OFF ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE
AREA AND MORE CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT BY FRIDAY...BUT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
BENEATH A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH CONVECTION BEING ENHANCED BY ANY WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOCALLY HIGHER...SO
SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES. THERE MAY STILL BE A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES ON INDEPENDENCE DAY ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...BUT BY SUNDAY INCREASED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE CWA DRY.
THIS DRY PERIOD WON/T LAST LONG HOWEVER...AS RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK
UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...DAMPENING THE UPPER RIDGE AND PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY...WHICH MAY STALL
IN THE AREA FOR A COUPLE DAYS. IN ADDITION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOON PLUME WILL BEND NORTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...FURTHER ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY START TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA BY MID NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                94  69  89  66  85 /   5  20  30  40  40
BEAVER OK                 100  70  90  67  89 /  20  20  40  40  30
BOISE CITY OK              97  66  88  63  86 /  20  30  40  40  30
BORGER TX                  98  72  92  68  87 /  10  20  30  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              99  70  92  66  88 /  10  20  30  40  40
CANYON TX                  94  67  91  65  85 /   5  20  30  40  40
CLARENDON TX               94  69  90  68  87 /   5  20  20  40  30
DALHART TX                 99  67  91  64  87 /  20  30  30  40  40
GUYMON OK                 100  69  90  66  88 /  20  20  40  40  30
HEREFORD TX                93  67  91  66  86 /   5  20  30  40  40
LIPSCOMB TX                98  71  90  67  88 /  10  20  40  40  30
PAMPA TX                   94  69  89  66  87 /   5  20  30  40  30
SHAMROCK TX                95  70  91  68  88 /   5  20  20  40  30
WELLINGTON TX              96  72  92  70  90 /   5  20  20  40  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/08






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 010927
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
327 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
WILL WILL BRING A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY. ONLY THE AREAS MOUNTAINS HAVE A
REASONABLE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WARMER DAY AS
LOWLAND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION
TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THE REGION LACKS THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. WV
SAT SHOWS A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVELS
ARE CONTINENTAL IN ORIGIN. LOW LEVELS ARE STILL E/SE AND KEEPING
DEWPOINTS UP BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW. IN ADDITION
THE UPPER HIGH HAS EXPANDED A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WHICH HAS
WARMED TEMPS ALOFT RESULTING IN CAPPING WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE
01/00Z SOUNDING...AND SHELTERED THE FORECAST AREA FROM ANY
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCES. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
CONTINUATION OF CAPPING AND DRIER CONDITIONS MEANING A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THUS VERY LIMITED POPS ARE IN
AND THOSE ARE RELEGATED TO THE W AND GILA ZONES. THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT MUCH CHANGE. WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ALOFT A HOT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO
TRIPLE-DIGIT TERRITORY. LATE THURSDAY THERE IS THE BEGINNING OF
MOISTURE SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION WHICH DOES SUGGEST SOME WEAK
TREND BACK TOWARD A LESS STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THUS ALTHOUGH SLIGHT
THERE ARE THE RETURN OF MINIMAL POPS BACK INTO MOST ZONES.

FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ROTATES CLOCKWISE TO OUR WEST...WHILE
A MINOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. THESE CHANGES MEAN
MORE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
WEST WE COME INTER A NORTH NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND THE
INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF IMPULSES PASSING OVER. COMBINED WITH PW`S
BACK ABOVE 1" WE FORECAST AN INCREASE IN POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY.

SATURDAY THE PATTERN LOOKS TRANSITIONAL...BUT IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO
IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE
EAST TO OUR NORTH AND WILL...OVER TIME...FOCUS A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER SE AZ/SW NM. FOR SATURDAY ALL ZONES LOOK TO
HAVE A UNIFORM MOISTURE SIGNATURE WITH EQUAL POPS ALL
LOWLANDS...TYPICAL HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS. FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
TRANSITION OF THE HIGH TO OUR EAST RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS BEGINS A
MOISTURE TAP THAT LOOKS TO FOCUS WEST. THIS PATTERN REALLY DOES
LOOK LIKE TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. FOR SUNDAY
ONWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS HIGHER POPS WEST
VS EAST ACROSS THE CWFA LOOKS WARRANTED. HOWEVER...ALL ZONES WILL
HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN WARM
SURFACE TEMPS AND UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN FLOW WORKING AS DESTABILIZATION
MECHANISMS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z...VFR CONDS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PD. DRIER AIR WILL MEAN FEWER CLOUDS AND STORMS. THUS
SKIES FEW-SCT080 SCT140. ISOLD TCU-TSRA OVR MTNS AFT 20Z. WINDS
GNRLY 140-180 5-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A LITTLE LESS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE AREA WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FEWER STORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER DISTURBS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INCREASING THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH WILL RUN AROUND 18% TO 23% LOWLANDS AND 30% TO
40% ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 98  75 102  75 /  10   0  10  30
SIERRA BLANCA           93  68  99  70 /   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              96  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALAMOGORDO              95  71  98  71 /  10  10  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              73  59  76  57 /  10  10  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  71  97  70 /  10  10  20  30
SILVER CITY             89  65  90  65 /  20  20  40  40
DEMING                  97  71 100  71 /  10  10  20  30
LORDSBURG               97  70  98  69 /  10  10  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      98  75 102  76 /  10   0  10  30
DELL CITY               96  69 100  70 /   0   0  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            98  72 102  73 /   0   0   0  20
LOMA LINDA              91  69  97  69 /  10   0  10  20
FABENS                  98  72 102  73 /   0   0  10  30
SANTA TERESA            96  73 100  74 /  10   0  10  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  71 100  72 /   0   0  10  30
JORNADA RANGE           96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
HATCH                   97  71 100  70 /   0  10  20  30
COLUMBUS                97  71 100  71 /  10  10  10  30
OROGRANDE               95  72  99  73 /   0   0  10  30
MAYHILL                 83  60  84  59 /  10  10  40  40
MESCALERO               84  59  86  59 /  10  10  40  40
TIMBERON                82  59  85  58 /  10  10  40  40
WINSTON                 88  63  90  61 /  20  20  40  40
HILLSBORO               95  67  96  66 /  20  10  20  30
SPACEPORT               96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            88  61  90  60 /  20  20  50  40
HURLEY                  92  67  93  66 /  20  10  20  40
CLIFF                   95  64  96  65 /  20  20  40  40
MULE CREEK              94  65  95  67 /  20  20  40  40
FAYWOOD                 92  68  94  66 /  10  10  20  30
ANIMAS                  98  70 100  69 /  10  10  30  30
HACHITA                 98  70 100  69 /  10  10  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          96  67  97  66 /  10  10  30  40
CLOVERDALE              92  66  93  66 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD



000
FXUS64 KEPZ 010927
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
327 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
WILL WILL BRING A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY. ONLY THE AREAS MOUNTAINS HAVE A
REASONABLE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WARMER DAY AS
LOWLAND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION
TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THE REGION LACKS THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. WV
SAT SHOWS A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVELS
ARE CONTINENTAL IN ORIGIN. LOW LEVELS ARE STILL E/SE AND KEEPING
DEWPOINTS UP BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW. IN ADDITION
THE UPPER HIGH HAS EXPANDED A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WHICH HAS
WARMED TEMPS ALOFT RESULTING IN CAPPING WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE
01/00Z SOUNDING...AND SHELTERED THE FORECAST AREA FROM ANY
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCES. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
CONTINUATION OF CAPPING AND DRIER CONDITIONS MEANING A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THUS VERY LIMITED POPS ARE IN
AND THOSE ARE RELEGATED TO THE W AND GILA ZONES. THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT MUCH CHANGE. WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ALOFT A HOT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO
TRIPLE-DIGIT TERRITORY. LATE THURSDAY THERE IS THE BEGINNING OF
MOISTURE SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION WHICH DOES SUGGEST SOME WEAK
TREND BACK TOWARD A LESS STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THUS ALTHOUGH SLIGHT
THERE ARE THE RETURN OF MINIMAL POPS BACK INTO MOST ZONES.

FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ROTATES CLOCKWISE TO OUR WEST...WHILE
A MINOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. THESE CHANGES MEAN
MORE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
WEST WE COME INTER A NORTH NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND THE
INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF IMPULSES PASSING OVER. COMBINED WITH PW`S
BACK ABOVE 1" WE FORECAST AN INCREASE IN POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY.

SATURDAY THE PATTERN LOOKS TRANSITIONAL...BUT IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO
IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE
EAST TO OUR NORTH AND WILL...OVER TIME...FOCUS A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER SE AZ/SW NM. FOR SATURDAY ALL ZONES LOOK TO
HAVE A UNIFORM MOISTURE SIGNATURE WITH EQUAL POPS ALL
LOWLANDS...TYPICAL HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS. FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
TRANSITION OF THE HIGH TO OUR EAST RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS BEGINS A
MOISTURE TAP THAT LOOKS TO FOCUS WEST. THIS PATTERN REALLY DOES
LOOK LIKE TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. FOR SUNDAY
ONWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS HIGHER POPS WEST
VS EAST ACROSS THE CWFA LOOKS WARRANTED. HOWEVER...ALL ZONES WILL
HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN WARM
SURFACE TEMPS AND UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN FLOW WORKING AS DESTABILIZATION
MECHANISMS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z...VFR CONDS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PD. DRIER AIR WILL MEAN FEWER CLOUDS AND STORMS. THUS
SKIES FEW-SCT080 SCT140. ISOLD TCU-TSRA OVR MTNS AFT 20Z. WINDS
GNRLY 140-180 5-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A LITTLE LESS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE AREA WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FEWER STORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER DISTURBS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INCREASING THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH WILL RUN AROUND 18% TO 23% LOWLANDS AND 30% TO
40% ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 98  75 102  75 /  10   0  10  30
SIERRA BLANCA           93  68  99  70 /   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              96  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALAMOGORDO              95  71  98  71 /  10  10  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              73  59  76  57 /  10  10  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  71  97  70 /  10  10  20  30
SILVER CITY             89  65  90  65 /  20  20  40  40
DEMING                  97  71 100  71 /  10  10  20  30
LORDSBURG               97  70  98  69 /  10  10  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      98  75 102  76 /  10   0  10  30
DELL CITY               96  69 100  70 /   0   0  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            98  72 102  73 /   0   0   0  20
LOMA LINDA              91  69  97  69 /  10   0  10  20
FABENS                  98  72 102  73 /   0   0  10  30
SANTA TERESA            96  73 100  74 /  10   0  10  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  71 100  72 /   0   0  10  30
JORNADA RANGE           96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
HATCH                   97  71 100  70 /   0  10  20  30
COLUMBUS                97  71 100  71 /  10  10  10  30
OROGRANDE               95  72  99  73 /   0   0  10  30
MAYHILL                 83  60  84  59 /  10  10  40  40
MESCALERO               84  59  86  59 /  10  10  40  40
TIMBERON                82  59  85  58 /  10  10  40  40
WINSTON                 88  63  90  61 /  20  20  40  40
HILLSBORO               95  67  96  66 /  20  10  20  30
SPACEPORT               96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            88  61  90  60 /  20  20  50  40
HURLEY                  92  67  93  66 /  20  10  20  40
CLIFF                   95  64  96  65 /  20  20  40  40
MULE CREEK              94  65  95  67 /  20  20  40  40
FAYWOOD                 92  68  94  66 /  10  10  20  30
ANIMAS                  98  70 100  69 /  10  10  30  30
HACHITA                 98  70 100  69 /  10  10  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          96  67  97  66 /  10  10  30  40
CLOVERDALE              92  66  93  66 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD



000
FXUS64 KEPZ 010927
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
327 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
WILL WILL BRING A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY. ONLY THE AREAS MOUNTAINS HAVE A
REASONABLE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WARMER DAY AS
LOWLAND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION
TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THE REGION LACKS THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. WV
SAT SHOWS A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVELS
ARE CONTINENTAL IN ORIGIN. LOW LEVELS ARE STILL E/SE AND KEEPING
DEWPOINTS UP BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW. IN ADDITION
THE UPPER HIGH HAS EXPANDED A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WHICH HAS
WARMED TEMPS ALOFT RESULTING IN CAPPING WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE
01/00Z SOUNDING...AND SHELTERED THE FORECAST AREA FROM ANY
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCES. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
CONTINUATION OF CAPPING AND DRIER CONDITIONS MEANING A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THUS VERY LIMITED POPS ARE IN
AND THOSE ARE RELEGATED TO THE W AND GILA ZONES. THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT MUCH CHANGE. WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ALOFT A HOT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO
TRIPLE-DIGIT TERRITORY. LATE THURSDAY THERE IS THE BEGINNING OF
MOISTURE SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION WHICH DOES SUGGEST SOME WEAK
TREND BACK TOWARD A LESS STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THUS ALTHOUGH SLIGHT
THERE ARE THE RETURN OF MINIMAL POPS BACK INTO MOST ZONES.

FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ROTATES CLOCKWISE TO OUR WEST...WHILE
A MINOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. THESE CHANGES MEAN
MORE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
WEST WE COME INTER A NORTH NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND THE
INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF IMPULSES PASSING OVER. COMBINED WITH PW`S
BACK ABOVE 1" WE FORECAST AN INCREASE IN POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY.

SATURDAY THE PATTERN LOOKS TRANSITIONAL...BUT IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO
IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE
EAST TO OUR NORTH AND WILL...OVER TIME...FOCUS A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER SE AZ/SW NM. FOR SATURDAY ALL ZONES LOOK TO
HAVE A UNIFORM MOISTURE SIGNATURE WITH EQUAL POPS ALL
LOWLANDS...TYPICAL HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS. FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
TRANSITION OF THE HIGH TO OUR EAST RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS BEGINS A
MOISTURE TAP THAT LOOKS TO FOCUS WEST. THIS PATTERN REALLY DOES
LOOK LIKE TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. FOR SUNDAY
ONWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS HIGHER POPS WEST
VS EAST ACROSS THE CWFA LOOKS WARRANTED. HOWEVER...ALL ZONES WILL
HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN WARM
SURFACE TEMPS AND UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN FLOW WORKING AS DESTABILIZATION
MECHANISMS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z...VFR CONDS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PD. DRIER AIR WILL MEAN FEWER CLOUDS AND STORMS. THUS
SKIES FEW-SCT080 SCT140. ISOLD TCU-TSRA OVR MTNS AFT 20Z. WINDS
GNRLY 140-180 5-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A LITTLE LESS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE AREA WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FEWER STORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER DISTURBS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INCREASING THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH WILL RUN AROUND 18% TO 23% LOWLANDS AND 30% TO
40% ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 98  75 102  75 /  10   0  10  30
SIERRA BLANCA           93  68  99  70 /   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              96  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALAMOGORDO              95  71  98  71 /  10  10  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              73  59  76  57 /  10  10  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  71  97  70 /  10  10  20  30
SILVER CITY             89  65  90  65 /  20  20  40  40
DEMING                  97  71 100  71 /  10  10  20  30
LORDSBURG               97  70  98  69 /  10  10  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      98  75 102  76 /  10   0  10  30
DELL CITY               96  69 100  70 /   0   0  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            98  72 102  73 /   0   0   0  20
LOMA LINDA              91  69  97  69 /  10   0  10  20
FABENS                  98  72 102  73 /   0   0  10  30
SANTA TERESA            96  73 100  74 /  10   0  10  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  71 100  72 /   0   0  10  30
JORNADA RANGE           96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
HATCH                   97  71 100  70 /   0  10  20  30
COLUMBUS                97  71 100  71 /  10  10  10  30
OROGRANDE               95  72  99  73 /   0   0  10  30
MAYHILL                 83  60  84  59 /  10  10  40  40
MESCALERO               84  59  86  59 /  10  10  40  40
TIMBERON                82  59  85  58 /  10  10  40  40
WINSTON                 88  63  90  61 /  20  20  40  40
HILLSBORO               95  67  96  66 /  20  10  20  30
SPACEPORT               96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            88  61  90  60 /  20  20  50  40
HURLEY                  92  67  93  66 /  20  10  20  40
CLIFF                   95  64  96  65 /  20  20  40  40
MULE CREEK              94  65  95  67 /  20  20  40  40
FAYWOOD                 92  68  94  66 /  10  10  20  30
ANIMAS                  98  70 100  69 /  10  10  30  30
HACHITA                 98  70 100  69 /  10  10  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          96  67  97  66 /  10  10  30  40
CLOVERDALE              92  66  93  66 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD



000
FXUS64 KEPZ 010927
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
327 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
WILL WILL BRING A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY. ONLY THE AREAS MOUNTAINS HAVE A
REASONABLE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WARMER DAY AS
LOWLAND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION
TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THE REGION LACKS THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. WV
SAT SHOWS A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVELS
ARE CONTINENTAL IN ORIGIN. LOW LEVELS ARE STILL E/SE AND KEEPING
DEWPOINTS UP BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW. IN ADDITION
THE UPPER HIGH HAS EXPANDED A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WHICH HAS
WARMED TEMPS ALOFT RESULTING IN CAPPING WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE
01/00Z SOUNDING...AND SHELTERED THE FORECAST AREA FROM ANY
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCES. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
CONTINUATION OF CAPPING AND DRIER CONDITIONS MEANING A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THUS VERY LIMITED POPS ARE IN
AND THOSE ARE RELEGATED TO THE W AND GILA ZONES. THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT MUCH CHANGE. WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ALOFT A HOT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO
TRIPLE-DIGIT TERRITORY. LATE THURSDAY THERE IS THE BEGINNING OF
MOISTURE SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION WHICH DOES SUGGEST SOME WEAK
TREND BACK TOWARD A LESS STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THUS ALTHOUGH SLIGHT
THERE ARE THE RETURN OF MINIMAL POPS BACK INTO MOST ZONES.

FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ROTATES CLOCKWISE TO OUR WEST...WHILE
A MINOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. THESE CHANGES MEAN
MORE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
WEST WE COME INTER A NORTH NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND THE
INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF IMPULSES PASSING OVER. COMBINED WITH PW`S
BACK ABOVE 1" WE FORECAST AN INCREASE IN POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY.

SATURDAY THE PATTERN LOOKS TRANSITIONAL...BUT IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO
IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE
EAST TO OUR NORTH AND WILL...OVER TIME...FOCUS A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER SE AZ/SW NM. FOR SATURDAY ALL ZONES LOOK TO
HAVE A UNIFORM MOISTURE SIGNATURE WITH EQUAL POPS ALL
LOWLANDS...TYPICAL HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS. FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
TRANSITION OF THE HIGH TO OUR EAST RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS BEGINS A
MOISTURE TAP THAT LOOKS TO FOCUS WEST. THIS PATTERN REALLY DOES
LOOK LIKE TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. FOR SUNDAY
ONWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS HIGHER POPS WEST
VS EAST ACROSS THE CWFA LOOKS WARRANTED. HOWEVER...ALL ZONES WILL
HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN WARM
SURFACE TEMPS AND UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN FLOW WORKING AS DESTABILIZATION
MECHANISMS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z...VFR CONDS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PD. DRIER AIR WILL MEAN FEWER CLOUDS AND STORMS. THUS
SKIES FEW-SCT080 SCT140. ISOLD TCU-TSRA OVR MTNS AFT 20Z. WINDS
GNRLY 140-180 5-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A LITTLE LESS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE AREA WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FEWER STORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER DISTURBS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INCREASING THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH WILL RUN AROUND 18% TO 23% LOWLANDS AND 30% TO
40% ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 98  75 102  75 /  10   0  10  30
SIERRA BLANCA           93  68  99  70 /   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              96  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALAMOGORDO              95  71  98  71 /  10  10  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              73  59  76  57 /  10  10  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  71  97  70 /  10  10  20  30
SILVER CITY             89  65  90  65 /  20  20  40  40
DEMING                  97  71 100  71 /  10  10  20  30
LORDSBURG               97  70  98  69 /  10  10  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      98  75 102  76 /  10   0  10  30
DELL CITY               96  69 100  70 /   0   0  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            98  72 102  73 /   0   0   0  20
LOMA LINDA              91  69  97  69 /  10   0  10  20
FABENS                  98  72 102  73 /   0   0  10  30
SANTA TERESA            96  73 100  74 /  10   0  10  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  71 100  72 /   0   0  10  30
JORNADA RANGE           96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
HATCH                   97  71 100  70 /   0  10  20  30
COLUMBUS                97  71 100  71 /  10  10  10  30
OROGRANDE               95  72  99  73 /   0   0  10  30
MAYHILL                 83  60  84  59 /  10  10  40  40
MESCALERO               84  59  86  59 /  10  10  40  40
TIMBERON                82  59  85  58 /  10  10  40  40
WINSTON                 88  63  90  61 /  20  20  40  40
HILLSBORO               95  67  96  66 /  20  10  20  30
SPACEPORT               96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            88  61  90  60 /  20  20  50  40
HURLEY                  92  67  93  66 /  20  10  20  40
CLIFF                   95  64  96  65 /  20  20  40  40
MULE CREEK              94  65  95  67 /  20  20  40  40
FAYWOOD                 92  68  94  66 /  10  10  20  30
ANIMAS                  98  70 100  69 /  10  10  30  30
HACHITA                 98  70 100  69 /  10  10  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          96  67  97  66 /  10  10  30  40
CLOVERDALE              92  66  93  66 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD



000
FXUS64 KEPZ 010927
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
327 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
WILL WILL BRING A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY. ONLY THE AREAS MOUNTAINS HAVE A
REASONABLE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WARMER DAY AS
LOWLAND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION
TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THE REGION LACKS THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. WV
SAT SHOWS A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVELS
ARE CONTINENTAL IN ORIGIN. LOW LEVELS ARE STILL E/SE AND KEEPING
DEWPOINTS UP BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW. IN ADDITION
THE UPPER HIGH HAS EXPANDED A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WHICH HAS
WARMED TEMPS ALOFT RESULTING IN CAPPING WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE
01/00Z SOUNDING...AND SHELTERED THE FORECAST AREA FROM ANY
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCES. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
CONTINUATION OF CAPPING AND DRIER CONDITIONS MEANING A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THUS VERY LIMITED POPS ARE IN
AND THOSE ARE RELEGATED TO THE W AND GILA ZONES. THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT MUCH CHANGE. WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ALOFT A HOT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO
TRIPLE-DIGIT TERRITORY. LATE THURSDAY THERE IS THE BEGINNING OF
MOISTURE SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION WHICH DOES SUGGEST SOME WEAK
TREND BACK TOWARD A LESS STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THUS ALTHOUGH SLIGHT
THERE ARE THE RETURN OF MINIMAL POPS BACK INTO MOST ZONES.

FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ROTATES CLOCKWISE TO OUR WEST...WHILE
A MINOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. THESE CHANGES MEAN
MORE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
WEST WE COME INTER A NORTH NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND THE
INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF IMPULSES PASSING OVER. COMBINED WITH PW`S
BACK ABOVE 1" WE FORECAST AN INCREASE IN POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY.

SATURDAY THE PATTERN LOOKS TRANSITIONAL...BUT IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO
IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE
EAST TO OUR NORTH AND WILL...OVER TIME...FOCUS A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER SE AZ/SW NM. FOR SATURDAY ALL ZONES LOOK TO
HAVE A UNIFORM MOISTURE SIGNATURE WITH EQUAL POPS ALL
LOWLANDS...TYPICAL HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS. FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
TRANSITION OF THE HIGH TO OUR EAST RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS BEGINS A
MOISTURE TAP THAT LOOKS TO FOCUS WEST. THIS PATTERN REALLY DOES
LOOK LIKE TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. FOR SUNDAY
ONWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS HIGHER POPS WEST
VS EAST ACROSS THE CWFA LOOKS WARRANTED. HOWEVER...ALL ZONES WILL
HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN WARM
SURFACE TEMPS AND UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN FLOW WORKING AS DESTABILIZATION
MECHANISMS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z...VFR CONDS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PD. DRIER AIR WILL MEAN FEWER CLOUDS AND STORMS. THUS
SKIES FEW-SCT080 SCT140. ISOLD TCU-TSRA OVR MTNS AFT 20Z. WINDS
GNRLY 140-180 5-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A LITTLE LESS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE AREA WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FEWER STORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER DISTURBS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INCREASING THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH WILL RUN AROUND 18% TO 23% LOWLANDS AND 30% TO
40% ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 98  75 102  75 /  10   0  10  30
SIERRA BLANCA           93  68  99  70 /   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              96  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALAMOGORDO              95  71  98  71 /  10  10  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              73  59  76  57 /  10  10  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  71  97  70 /  10  10  20  30
SILVER CITY             89  65  90  65 /  20  20  40  40
DEMING                  97  71 100  71 /  10  10  20  30
LORDSBURG               97  70  98  69 /  10  10  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      98  75 102  76 /  10   0  10  30
DELL CITY               96  69 100  70 /   0   0  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            98  72 102  73 /   0   0   0  20
LOMA LINDA              91  69  97  69 /  10   0  10  20
FABENS                  98  72 102  73 /   0   0  10  30
SANTA TERESA            96  73 100  74 /  10   0  10  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  71 100  72 /   0   0  10  30
JORNADA RANGE           96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
HATCH                   97  71 100  70 /   0  10  20  30
COLUMBUS                97  71 100  71 /  10  10  10  30
OROGRANDE               95  72  99  73 /   0   0  10  30
MAYHILL                 83  60  84  59 /  10  10  40  40
MESCALERO               84  59  86  59 /  10  10  40  40
TIMBERON                82  59  85  58 /  10  10  40  40
WINSTON                 88  63  90  61 /  20  20  40  40
HILLSBORO               95  67  96  66 /  20  10  20  30
SPACEPORT               96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            88  61  90  60 /  20  20  50  40
HURLEY                  92  67  93  66 /  20  10  20  40
CLIFF                   95  64  96  65 /  20  20  40  40
MULE CREEK              94  65  95  67 /  20  20  40  40
FAYWOOD                 92  68  94  66 /  10  10  20  30
ANIMAS                  98  70 100  69 /  10  10  30  30
HACHITA                 98  70 100  69 /  10  10  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          96  67  97  66 /  10  10  30  40
CLOVERDALE              92  66  93  66 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD



000
FXUS64 KEPZ 010927
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
327 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE BORDERLAND
WILL WILL BRING A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY. ONLY THE AREAS MOUNTAINS HAVE A
REASONABLE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
CHANGE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WARMER DAY AS
LOWLAND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. FRIDAY
A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION
TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THE REGION LACKS THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. WV
SAT SHOWS A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVELS
ARE CONTINENTAL IN ORIGIN. LOW LEVELS ARE STILL E/SE AND KEEPING
DEWPOINTS UP BUT THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW. IN ADDITION
THE UPPER HIGH HAS EXPANDED A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WHICH HAS
WARMED TEMPS ALOFT RESULTING IN CAPPING WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE
01/00Z SOUNDING...AND SHELTERED THE FORECAST AREA FROM ANY
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCES. PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
CONTINUATION OF CAPPING AND DRIER CONDITIONS MEANING A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY. THUS VERY LIMITED POPS ARE IN
AND THOSE ARE RELEGATED TO THE W AND GILA ZONES. THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT MUCH CHANGE. WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING ALOFT A HOT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK INTO
TRIPLE-DIGIT TERRITORY. LATE THURSDAY THERE IS THE BEGINNING OF
MOISTURE SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION WHICH DOES SUGGEST SOME WEAK
TREND BACK TOWARD A LESS STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THUS ALTHOUGH SLIGHT
THERE ARE THE RETURN OF MINIMAL POPS BACK INTO MOST ZONES.

FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ROTATES CLOCKWISE TO OUR WEST...WHILE
A MINOR SURFACE FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. THESE CHANGES MEAN
MORE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
WEST WE COME INTER A NORTH NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND THE
INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF IMPULSES PASSING OVER. COMBINED WITH PW`S
BACK ABOVE 1" WE FORECAST AN INCREASE IN POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY.

SATURDAY THE PATTERN LOOKS TRANSITIONAL...BUT IT DOESN`T APPEAR TO
IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE
EAST TO OUR NORTH AND WILL...OVER TIME...FOCUS A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME OVER SE AZ/SW NM. FOR SATURDAY ALL ZONES LOOK TO
HAVE A UNIFORM MOISTURE SIGNATURE WITH EQUAL POPS ALL
LOWLANDS...TYPICAL HIGHER POPS MOUNTAINS. FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
TRANSITION OF THE HIGH TO OUR EAST RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS BEGINS A
MOISTURE TAP THAT LOOKS TO FOCUS WEST. THIS PATTERN REALLY DOES
LOOK LIKE TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. FOR SUNDAY
ONWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS HIGHER POPS WEST
VS EAST ACROSS THE CWFA LOOKS WARRANTED. HOWEVER...ALL ZONES WILL
HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN WARM
SURFACE TEMPS AND UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN FLOW WORKING AS DESTABILIZATION
MECHANISMS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z...VFR CONDS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PD. DRIER AIR WILL MEAN FEWER CLOUDS AND STORMS. THUS
SKIES FEW-SCT080 SCT140. ISOLD TCU-TSRA OVR MTNS AFT 20Z. WINDS
GNRLY 140-180 5-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A LITTLE LESS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE AREA WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FEWER STORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER DISTURBS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INCREASING THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH WILL RUN AROUND 18% TO 23% LOWLANDS AND 30% TO
40% ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 98  75 102  75 /  10   0  10  30
SIERRA BLANCA           93  68  99  70 /   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              96  71 100  72 /  10  10  10  30
ALAMOGORDO              95  71  98  71 /  10  10  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              73  59  76  57 /  10  10  40  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  71  97  70 /  10  10  20  30
SILVER CITY             89  65  90  65 /  20  20  40  40
DEMING                  97  71 100  71 /  10  10  20  30
LORDSBURG               97  70  98  69 /  10  10  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      98  75 102  76 /  10   0  10  30
DELL CITY               96  69 100  70 /   0   0  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            98  72 102  73 /   0   0   0  20
LOMA LINDA              91  69  97  69 /  10   0  10  20
FABENS                  98  72 102  73 /   0   0  10  30
SANTA TERESA            96  73 100  74 /  10   0  10  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  71 100  72 /   0   0  10  30
JORNADA RANGE           96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
HATCH                   97  71 100  70 /   0  10  20  30
COLUMBUS                97  71 100  71 /  10  10  10  30
OROGRANDE               95  72  99  73 /   0   0  10  30
MAYHILL                 83  60  84  59 /  10  10  40  40
MESCALERO               84  59  86  59 /  10  10  40  40
TIMBERON                82  59  85  58 /  10  10  40  40
WINSTON                 88  63  90  61 /  20  20  40  40
HILLSBORO               95  67  96  66 /  20  10  20  30
SPACEPORT               96  71  99  71 /  10  10  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            88  61  90  60 /  20  20  50  40
HURLEY                  92  67  93  66 /  20  10  20  40
CLIFF                   95  64  96  65 /  20  20  40  40
MULE CREEK              94  65  95  67 /  20  20  40  40
FAYWOOD                 92  68  94  66 /  10  10  20  30
ANIMAS                  98  70 100  69 /  10  10  30  30
HACHITA                 98  70 100  69 /  10  10  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          96  67  97  66 /  10  10  30  40
CLOVERDALE              92  66  93  66 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD




000
FXUS64 KBRO 010916
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
416 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES...ONE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO...TWO FEATURES ALOFT PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. ONE IS A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. THE OTHER IS A
WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST LINE...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. BROWNSVILLE RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF POPS. THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SUGGEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE STABLE AIRMASS AND
ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY. SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.06 INCHES PER THE 0Z BRO
SOUNDING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/TEXT
PRODUCTS FOR TODAY. THE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850
TO 650MB SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST NAM/GFS MOS
NUMBERS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500 MB LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARER
THE COAST...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA RE-CENTERS OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INHERITED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR NOW AND WERE LARGELY RETAINED...BUT WITH
THE 500 MB HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT EARLY NEXT WEEK...DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BEGIN TO BE RAISED BY FUTURE SHIFTS
SOON.

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 18 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 4.3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  87  79  90  78 /  50  20  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          89  78  91  78 /  50  20  20   0
HARLINGEN            90  77  93  76 /  50  20  20   0
MCALLEN              92  77  95  78 /  50  20  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  77  95  75 /  50  20  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  82  86  81 /  50  20  20   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...CACERES-63
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...BILLINGS-58




000
FXUS64 KBRO 010916
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
416 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES...ONE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE OTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALSO...TWO FEATURES ALOFT PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. ONE IS A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. THE OTHER IS A
WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO EXTENDING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST LINE...SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD. BROWNSVILLE RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE COVERAGE OF POPS. THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SUGGEST CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE STABLE AIRMASS AND
ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY. SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.06 INCHES PER THE 0Z BRO
SOUNDING...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS/TEXT
PRODUCTS FOR TODAY. THE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850
TO 650MB SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST NAM/GFS MOS
NUMBERS. LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500 MB LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARER
THE COAST...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 500
MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA RE-CENTERS OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INHERITED HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOKED REASONABLE FOR NOW AND WERE LARGELY RETAINED...BUT WITH
THE 500 MB HIGH BECOMING MORE DOMINANT EARLY NEXT WEEK...DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BEGIN TO BE RAISED BY FUTURE SHIFTS
SOON.

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 18 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF 4.3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  87  79  90  78 /  50  20  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          89  78  91  78 /  50  20  20   0
HARLINGEN            90  77  93  76 /  50  20  20   0
MCALLEN              92  77  95  78 /  50  20  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  77  95  75 /  50  20  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  82  86  81 /  50  20  20   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...CACERES-63
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...BILLINGS-58



000
FXUS64 KHGX 010902
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
402 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL /WITH SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE HOUSTON
METRO RECEIVING 3 TO OVER 5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS/ HAS ALLOWED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS OF
3 AM CDT THIS MORNING... A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS TYPICALLY
OBSERVED FOR JULY 1. LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND A LARGER COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE SOUTH
TOWARDS TAMPICO...MEXICO.

THIS COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS AND WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
TODAY AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE /4 KM NCEP WRF...ARW...NMM/ MOVES THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING...
REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE
RAP AND THE NAM12 SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM
THIS DISTURBANCE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THEIR SOLUTIONS OFFER
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRAJECTORIES FOR THE TROUGH... AND THIS WILL BE
THE BIG DETERMINING FACTOR FOR WHETHER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SEES ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THIS
FEATURE.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS IN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING
TO THE NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE AS WELL AS 00Z UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING EASTERLY
STEERING WINDS /AWAY FROM THE REGION/... THINK THE TROUGH AND BULK
OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN WITH IT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY HOWEVER... ANY OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD REACH THE
REGION AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUSING MECHANSIM FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW /SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS/ AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT. HOWEVER... WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE FORECAST
BASED ON TRENDS.

DESPITE ALL THAT... GIVEN SOME WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.8-1.9 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY AROUND 86 TO 89 DEGREES... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MARINE... COASTAL... AND INLAND ZONES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK
20-40 POPS COVERS THIS WELL AND ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A MID TO UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HELP LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY /BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/. OTHERWISE... HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT IN TO
FRIDAY... WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK...
WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS APPEARING TO BE ON TAP FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY.  43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  75  92  76  92 /  30  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  76  93  76  93 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  89  81  89 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010902
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
402 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAY/S RAINFALL /WITH SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE HOUSTON
METRO RECEIVING 3 TO OVER 5 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS/ HAS ALLOWED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS OF
3 AM CDT THIS MORNING... A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS TYPICALLY
OBSERVED FOR JULY 1. LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH WEAK DIFFLUENT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND A LARGER COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE SOUTH
TOWARDS TAMPICO...MEXICO.

THIS COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS/NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS AND WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
TODAY AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTH. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE /4 KM NCEP WRF...ARW...NMM/ MOVES THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING...
REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE
RAP AND THE NAM12 SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL FROM
THIS DISTURBANCE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THEIR SOLUTIONS OFFER
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRAJECTORIES FOR THE TROUGH... AND THIS WILL BE
THE BIG DETERMINING FACTOR FOR WHETHER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SEES ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THIS
FEATURE.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS IN THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING
TO THE NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE AS WELL AS 00Z UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWING EASTERLY
STEERING WINDS /AWAY FROM THE REGION/... THINK THE TROUGH AND BULK
OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN WITH IT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY HOWEVER... ANY OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX COULD REACH THE
REGION AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUSING MECHANSIM FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW /SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS/ AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT. HOWEVER... WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE FORECAST
BASED ON TRENDS.

DESPITE ALL THAT... GIVEN SOME WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.8-1.9 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY AROUND 86 TO 89 DEGREES... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MARINE... COASTAL... AND INLAND ZONES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK
20-40 POPS COVERS THIS WELL AND ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A MID TO UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HELP LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY /BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO/. OTHERWISE... HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S TO MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT IN TO
FRIDAY... WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK...
WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS APPEARING TO BE ON TAP FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY.  43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  75  92  76  92 /  30  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              92  76  93  76  93 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  81  89  81  89 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43



000
FXUS64 KLUB 010859
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
359 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SUMMER-
TIME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS AN AXIS
EXTENDING OVER WEST TEXAS WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSIONS IN THE 600-700
MB AND ALSO THE 400-500 MB LAYERS. SOLUTIONS HAVE TRIMMED THUNDER
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH IN THE PANHANDLE FOR LATE TONIGHT ALIGNED
CLOSELY TO THE EXPECTED NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBSIDENT INVERSIONS.
WE WILL TRIM MENTION A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS WELL THOUGH STILL
HUGGING OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT. A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS THIS MORNING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MAY MIX ENOUGH FOR MODEST BREEZES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ANYWAY JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT ON TRACK FOR A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE LOCALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT PLAINS. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES IN THIS REGIME COMBINED WITH A DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SPELL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY. A
MEANDERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL...IMPACTING FOCUS
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT FARTHER SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OWING TO
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO BORDERLINE
SEVERE IF DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN INCREASE TOWARD THE 30 KNOT
BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
THURSDAY BEFORE THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS AND ROBUST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAKE SHAPE...FALLING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S TO ROUND
OUT THE WEEK.

MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS COME INDEPENDENCE DAY MORNING
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS NEARER THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF CYCLONIC
FLOW. UPPER RIDGING SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY WILL BRING INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S UNDER CLEARING SKIES FOR HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES FOLLOWED BY LOW-MID 90S SUNDAY.

WHILE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SEES AN UPTICK IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND...CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS MAY BRING SOME OF THIS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AS EARLY AS MONDAY. FURTHER AIDING LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW ROTATING OUT OF MANITOBA AND ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT MAKES
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE PARENT DISTURBANCE
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  66  89  63 /   0  20  30  40
TULIA         92  67  89  66 /   0  20  30  40
PLAINVIEW     91  66  89  67 /   0  10  20  40
LEVELLAND     92  67  91  67 /   0  10  20  40
LUBBOCK       92  69  92  69 /   0  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   91  65  92  65 /   0   0  10  30
BROWNFIELD    92  67  92  66 /   0  10  20  30
CHILDRESS     96  72  94  72 /   0  10  20  30
SPUR          92  70  91  68 /   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     94  73  95  71 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/31



000
FXUS64 KLUB 010859
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
359 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SUMMER-
TIME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS AN AXIS
EXTENDING OVER WEST TEXAS WITH SUBSIDENT INVERSIONS IN THE 600-700
MB AND ALSO THE 400-500 MB LAYERS. SOLUTIONS HAVE TRIMMED THUNDER
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH IN THE PANHANDLE FOR LATE TONIGHT ALIGNED
CLOSELY TO THE EXPECTED NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBSIDENT INVERSIONS.
WE WILL TRIM MENTION A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS WELL THOUGH STILL
HUGGING OUR NORTHERN ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT. A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS THIS MORNING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MAY MIX ENOUGH FOR MODEST BREEZES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ANYWAY JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE BUT ON TRACK FOR A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE LOCALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT PLAINS. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES IN THIS REGIME COMBINED WITH A DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET WILL SPELL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY. A
MEANDERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT WILL BE IN VICINITY OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL...IMPACTING FOCUS
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT FARTHER SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OWING TO
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO BORDERLINE
SEVERE IF DEEP LAYER SHEAR CAN INCREASE TOWARD THE 30 KNOT
BALLPARK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
THURSDAY BEFORE THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS AND ROBUST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TAKE SHAPE...FALLING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S TO ROUND
OUT THE WEEK.

MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS COME INDEPENDENCE DAY MORNING
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS NEARER THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF CYCLONIC
FLOW. UPPER RIDGING SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY WILL BRING INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S UNDER CLEARING SKIES FOR HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES FOLLOWED BY LOW-MID 90S SUNDAY.

WHILE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SEES AN UPTICK IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND...CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS MAY BRING SOME OF THIS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AS EARLY AS MONDAY. FURTHER AIDING LARGE SCALE
LIFT WILL BE AN UPPER LOW ROTATING OUT OF MANITOBA AND ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...PUSHING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT MAKES
IT WILL DEPEND ON THE THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE PARENT DISTURBANCE
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  66  89  63 /   0  20  30  40
TULIA         92  67  89  66 /   0  20  30  40
PLAINVIEW     91  66  89  67 /   0  10  20  40
LEVELLAND     92  67  91  67 /   0  10  20  40
LUBBOCK       92  69  92  69 /   0  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   91  65  92  65 /   0   0  10  30
BROWNFIELD    92  67  92  66 /   0  10  20  30
CHILDRESS     96  72  94  72 /   0  10  20  30
SPUR          92  70  91  68 /   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     94  73  95  71 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/31




000
FXUS64 KSJT 010854
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight for our area. The upper
level high will remain centered over the Great Basin, with a ridge
extension southeast into west central Texas. This will provide
sufficient subsidence with slight mid-level warming to inhibit
shower/thunderstorm development in our area today. Any development
over the Hill Country should remain southeast of our area. Clear to
partly cloudy skies are expected, with patchy low cloud development
early this morning over roughly the southern third of our area, and
with a diurnal cumulus field by this afternoon. With increasing
surface pressure gradient, south winds will increase and become
gusty today. Highs this afternoon will be mostly in the 90-93 degree
range, with a few mid 90s in the northern Big Country. Overnight
lows will be mostly between 69 and 73 degrees, with a few mid 70s in
the northern Big Country.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)

Upper level ridge over the Great Basin may weaken just enough to
allow for better northerly flow and a weak front to make it into
the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. This may generate enough
convection to push the front itself or some outflow boundaries
south across the Red River towards the northern Big Country.
Chances are small, but enough there to keep the slight chance of
storms in the forecast for mainly Haskell and Throckmorton
counties for Thursday Night through Saturday. Elsewhere, ridge
will hold strong enough to keep chances for convection down to a
minimum.

Upper ridge takes builds east again and dominates by Sunday and
this should persist through much of next week. Dry and warm
forecast to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  72  92  74  92 /   0   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  92  70  91  72  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  91  69  87  71  89 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/07





000
FXUS64 KSJT 010854
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight for our area. The upper
level high will remain centered over the Great Basin, with a ridge
extension southeast into west central Texas. This will provide
sufficient subsidence with slight mid-level warming to inhibit
shower/thunderstorm development in our area today. Any development
over the Hill Country should remain southeast of our area. Clear to
partly cloudy skies are expected, with patchy low cloud development
early this morning over roughly the southern third of our area, and
with a diurnal cumulus field by this afternoon. With increasing
surface pressure gradient, south winds will increase and become
gusty today. Highs this afternoon will be mostly in the 90-93 degree
range, with a few mid 90s in the northern Big Country. Overnight
lows will be mostly between 69 and 73 degrees, with a few mid 70s in
the northern Big Country.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)

Upper level ridge over the Great Basin may weaken just enough to
allow for better northerly flow and a weak front to make it into
the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. This may generate enough
convection to push the front itself or some outflow boundaries
south across the Red River towards the northern Big Country.
Chances are small, but enough there to keep the slight chance of
storms in the forecast for mainly Haskell and Throckmorton
counties for Thursday Night through Saturday. Elsewhere, ridge
will hold strong enough to keep chances for convection down to a
minimum.

Upper ridge takes builds east again and dominates by Sunday and
this should persist through much of next week. Dry and warm
forecast to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  72  92  74  92 /   0   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  92  70  91  72  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  91  69  87  71  89 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/07






000
FXUS64 KSJT 010854
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight for our area. The upper
level high will remain centered over the Great Basin, with a ridge
extension southeast into west central Texas. This will provide
sufficient subsidence with slight mid-level warming to inhibit
shower/thunderstorm development in our area today. Any development
over the Hill Country should remain southeast of our area. Clear to
partly cloudy skies are expected, with patchy low cloud development
early this morning over roughly the southern third of our area, and
with a diurnal cumulus field by this afternoon. With increasing
surface pressure gradient, south winds will increase and become
gusty today. Highs this afternoon will be mostly in the 90-93 degree
range, with a few mid 90s in the northern Big Country. Overnight
lows will be mostly between 69 and 73 degrees, with a few mid 70s in
the northern Big Country.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)

Upper level ridge over the Great Basin may weaken just enough to
allow for better northerly flow and a weak front to make it into
the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. This may generate enough
convection to push the front itself or some outflow boundaries
south across the Red River towards the northern Big Country.
Chances are small, but enough there to keep the slight chance of
storms in the forecast for mainly Haskell and Throckmorton
counties for Thursday Night through Saturday. Elsewhere, ridge
will hold strong enough to keep chances for convection down to a
minimum.

Upper ridge takes builds east again and dominates by Sunday and
this should persist through much of next week. Dry and warm
forecast to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  72  92  74  92 /   0   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  92  70  91  72  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  91  69  87  71  89 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/07





000
FXUS64 KSJT 010854
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight for our area. The upper
level high will remain centered over the Great Basin, with a ridge
extension southeast into west central Texas. This will provide
sufficient subsidence with slight mid-level warming to inhibit
shower/thunderstorm development in our area today. Any development
over the Hill Country should remain southeast of our area. Clear to
partly cloudy skies are expected, with patchy low cloud development
early this morning over roughly the southern third of our area, and
with a diurnal cumulus field by this afternoon. With increasing
surface pressure gradient, south winds will increase and become
gusty today. Highs this afternoon will be mostly in the 90-93 degree
range, with a few mid 90s in the northern Big Country. Overnight
lows will be mostly between 69 and 73 degrees, with a few mid 70s in
the northern Big Country.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)

Upper level ridge over the Great Basin may weaken just enough to
allow for better northerly flow and a weak front to make it into
the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. This may generate enough
convection to push the front itself or some outflow boundaries
south across the Red River towards the northern Big Country.
Chances are small, but enough there to keep the slight chance of
storms in the forecast for mainly Haskell and Throckmorton
counties for Thursday Night through Saturday. Elsewhere, ridge
will hold strong enough to keep chances for convection down to a
minimum.

Upper ridge takes builds east again and dominates by Sunday and
this should persist through much of next week. Dry and warm
forecast to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  93  72  92  74  92 /   0   5   5  10  10
San Angelo  92  70  91  72  91 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  91  69  87  71  89 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

19/07






000
FXUS64 KCRP 010849
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
349 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...HIGH MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES...REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT THIS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. SPEED CONVERGENCE
AXIS WILL FOCUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT
BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS YESTERDAY AS THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. BUT
MODELS KEEP THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION EARLY AND
GRADUALLY MOVE IT WEST INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS TODAY. WENT A
TAD LOWER ACROSS THE VICTORIA AREA WHERE SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MAY HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CATEGORY
HIGHER FOR THURSDAY. SWELLS WITH HIGHER PERIODS WILL RAISE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRONGER SUBSIDENCE
AND LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE IS PROG TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF BRING DEEPER MOISTURE NW FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
BEING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
MAY REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND A DECREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
HOT DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON EXPECTED HEAT INDICES WHICH MAY
REACH/EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  77  91  77  92  /  50  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          90  75  92  76  92  /  30  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  76  96  76  98  /  50  20  20  10  10
ALICE             91  75  94  75  95  /  50  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  81  91  80  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           92  74  94  74  97  /  40  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  77  93  77  93  /  50  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  79  91  80  91  /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 010849
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
349 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...HIGH MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES...REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT THIS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. SPEED CONVERGENCE
AXIS WILL FOCUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT
BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS YESTERDAY AS THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. BUT
MODELS KEEP THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION EARLY AND
GRADUALLY MOVE IT WEST INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS TODAY. WENT A
TAD LOWER ACROSS THE VICTORIA AREA WHERE SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MAY HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CATEGORY
HIGHER FOR THURSDAY. SWELLS WITH HIGHER PERIODS WILL RAISE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRONGER SUBSIDENCE
AND LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE IS PROG TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF BRING DEEPER MOISTURE NW FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
BEING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
MAY REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND A DECREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
HOT DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON EXPECTED HEAT INDICES WHICH MAY
REACH/EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  77  91  77  92  /  50  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          90  75  92  76  92  /  30  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  76  96  76  98  /  50  20  20  10  10
ALICE             91  75  94  75  95  /  50  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  81  91  80  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           92  74  94  74  97  /  40  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  77  93  77  93  /  50  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  79  91  80  91  /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 010849
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
349 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...HIGH MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES...REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT THIS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. SPEED CONVERGENCE
AXIS WILL FOCUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT
BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS YESTERDAY AS THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. BUT
MODELS KEEP THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION EARLY AND
GRADUALLY MOVE IT WEST INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS TODAY. WENT A
TAD LOWER ACROSS THE VICTORIA AREA WHERE SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MAY HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CATEGORY
HIGHER FOR THURSDAY. SWELLS WITH HIGHER PERIODS WILL RAISE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRONGER SUBSIDENCE
AND LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE IS PROG TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF BRING DEEPER MOISTURE NW FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
BEING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
MAY REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND A DECREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
HOT DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON EXPECTED HEAT INDICES WHICH MAY
REACH/EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  77  91  77  92  /  50  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          90  75  92  76  92  /  30  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  76  96  76  98  /  50  20  20  10  10
ALICE             91  75  94  75  95  /  50  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  81  91  80  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           92  74  94  74  97  /  40  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  77  93  77  93  /  50  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  79  91  80  91  /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 010849
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
349 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...HIGH MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES...REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT THIS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. SPEED CONVERGENCE
AXIS WILL FOCUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. COVERAGE MAY NOT
BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS YESTERDAY AS THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. BUT
MODELS KEEP THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION EARLY AND
GRADUALLY MOVE IT WEST INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS TODAY. WENT A
TAD LOWER ACROSS THE VICTORIA AREA WHERE SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MAY HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOLD ONTO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CATEGORY
HIGHER FOR THURSDAY. SWELLS WITH HIGHER PERIODS WILL RAISE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRONGER SUBSIDENCE
AND LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE IS PROG TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AND BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF BRING DEEPER MOISTURE NW FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
BEING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
MAY REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND A DECREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
HOT DAYTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON EXPECTED HEAT INDICES WHICH MAY
REACH/EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  77  91  77  92  /  50  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          90  75  92  76  92  /  30  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  76  96  76  98  /  50  20  20  10  10
ALICE             91  75  94  75  95  /  50  10  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          90  81  91  80  91  /  40  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           92  74  94  74  97  /  40  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  77  93  77  93  /  50  10  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  79  91  80  91  /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KMAF 010827
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
327 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. HAS SET UP CAMP
AND DOESN`T LOOK TO GO ANYWHERE SOON. WITHOUT ANY DISCERNIBLE
FEATURES, MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED
STORM POSSIBLE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WITH OUR REGION ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE DOOR IS
OPEN FOR MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTH, AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS MAY MOVE
ONCE THEY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST BUT
NEVER REALLY STRENGTHENS. MEANWHILE, A THETA-E AXIS SETS UP ACROSS
NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERING ITSELF OVERHEAD LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WILL UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY FOR AREAS THAT SAW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN YESTERDAY (MAINLY THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN). HIGHS
WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY CLIMB. AS OF RIGHT NOW, YOUR 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS GREAT
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90`S AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX AND SE NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  93  70  92  73  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    95  68  96  69  /  10  10  10  40
DRYDEN TX                      91  71  91  72  /  10   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               90  69  92  70  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  68  90  66  /  10  10  10  40
HOBBS NM                       90  67  90  68  /   0  10  10  30
MARFA TX                       88  62  90  63  /  10  10  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        90  69  91  72  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      90  69  90  71  /   0   0  10  20
WINK TX                        95  70  95  70  /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29




000
FXUS64 KMAF 010827
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
327 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. HAS SET UP CAMP
AND DOESN`T LOOK TO GO ANYWHERE SOON. WITHOUT ANY DISCERNIBLE
FEATURES, MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED
STORM POSSIBLE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WITH OUR REGION ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE DOOR IS
OPEN FOR MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTH, AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS MAY MOVE
ONCE THEY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST BUT
NEVER REALLY STRENGTHENS. MEANWHILE, A THETA-E AXIS SETS UP ACROSS
NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERING ITSELF OVERHEAD LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WILL UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY FOR AREAS THAT SAW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN YESTERDAY (MAINLY THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN). HIGHS
WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY CLIMB. AS OF RIGHT NOW, YOUR 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS GREAT
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90`S AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX AND SE NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  93  70  92  73  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    95  68  96  69  /  10  10  10  40
DRYDEN TX                      91  71  91  72  /  10   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               90  69  92  70  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  68  90  66  /  10  10  10  40
HOBBS NM                       90  67  90  68  /   0  10  10  30
MARFA TX                       88  62  90  63  /  10  10  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        90  69  91  72  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      90  69  90  71  /   0   0  10  20
WINK TX                        95  70  95  70  /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29



000
FXUS64 KMAF 010827
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
327 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. HAS SET UP CAMP
AND DOESN`T LOOK TO GO ANYWHERE SOON. WITHOUT ANY DISCERNIBLE
FEATURES, MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED
STORM POSSIBLE IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WITH OUR REGION ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE DOOR IS
OPEN FOR MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE SOUTH, AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS MAY MOVE
ONCE THEY DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST BUT
NEVER REALLY STRENGTHENS. MEANWHILE, A THETA-E AXIS SETS UP ACROSS
NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR AREA ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERING ITSELF OVERHEAD LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

WILL UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY FOR AREAS THAT SAW THE
HEAVIEST RAIN YESTERDAY (MAINLY THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN). HIGHS
WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY CLIMB. AS OF RIGHT NOW, YOUR 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS GREAT
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90`S AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W TX AND SE NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  93  70  92  73  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    95  68  96  69  /  10  10  10  40
DRYDEN TX                      91  71  91  72  /  10   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               90  69  92  70  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  68  90  66  /  10  10  10  40
HOBBS NM                       90  67  90  68  /   0  10  10  30
MARFA TX                       88  62  90  63  /  10  10  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        90  69  91  72  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      90  69  90  71  /   0   0  10  20
WINK TX                        95  70  95  70  /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29




000
FXUS64 KEWX 010815
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNIALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  20  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  10  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  10  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  10  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  30  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  30  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  30  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  30  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  40  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KEWX 010815
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS LAST EVENING SHOWED A HIGH OVER THE WEST
CENTERED OVER UTAH...A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING OUT OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AND WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AFTER THE RAIN TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
WILL PUSH UP AGAIN TODAY AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN HALF TODAY. PW IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9
INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNIALLY DRIVEN AND WE EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND RESULTING HEIGHT RISES SHOULD PREVENT CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
A CONTINUED DRY PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE TWO UPPER TROUGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE RIDGE. HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW DAYTIME CONVECTION AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PW EXPECTED NEAR 1.75
INCHES AND SLOW MOVING STORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  91  74  92 /  20  -   -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  73  91  73  92 /  20  -   10   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  91  73  91 /  40  10  10   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  72  89  73  91 /  10  -   -    0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  72  91  74  94 /  10  10  -    0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  73  90  74  92 /  10  -   -    0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  71  91  73  92 /  30  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  91 /  30  10  10   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  75  91 /  30  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       90  73  91  75  92 /  30  10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  92  74  92 /  40  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05



000
FXUS64 KFWD 010749
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE QUIETER MORNING AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TODAY TO ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLY HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR A SEABREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST AND IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR
WILL EXIST IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MICROBURST. AS A RESULT...WE
ONLY EXPECT SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. THURSDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND HOT DAY AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
GET LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP TOWARD THE OZARKS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 35-45 KT LLJ WILL
FEED INTO THE ELEVATED 850MB FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WITH MEAN STEERING CURRENTS PUSHING THE MCS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
RED RIVER OVERNIGHT PER FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SE ACROSS THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

BEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST NORTH-EAST OF THE DFW
METRO. THE UPPER FLOW DOES DAMPEN SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS EAST TX AND ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DAMPENS QUITE A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1142 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE BUT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MORE LIKELY NEAR KACT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES AGAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KACT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED BY ANY CONVECTION THAN THE DFW METROPLEX AREA BUT WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS TOMORROW FOR INCLUSION OF VCTS OR VCSH IF
NEEDED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAFS. SOUTH
WINDS AOB 11 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 14-18 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH. A SCATTERED CU FIELD WITH BASES BETWEEN 4-7 KFT WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY.

JLDUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  76  92 /   5   5   5  10  30
WACO, TX              93  75  94  75  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  88 /   5   5  10  40  70
DENTON, TX            94  74  93  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          93  75  94  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  76  93 /   5   5   5  10  30
TERRELL, TX           93  75  94  75  92 /   5   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  74  92 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  73  93  73  92 /  20  10   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  94  73  94 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/05




000
FXUS64 KFWD 010749
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE QUIETER MORNING AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TODAY TO ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLY HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR A SEABREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST AND IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR
WILL EXIST IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MICROBURST. AS A RESULT...WE
ONLY EXPECT SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. THURSDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND HOT DAY AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
GET LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP TOWARD THE OZARKS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 35-45 KT LLJ WILL
FEED INTO THE ELEVATED 850MB FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WITH MEAN STEERING CURRENTS PUSHING THE MCS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
RED RIVER OVERNIGHT PER FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SE ACROSS THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

BEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST NORTH-EAST OF THE DFW
METRO. THE UPPER FLOW DOES DAMPEN SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS EAST TX AND ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DAMPENS QUITE A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1142 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE BUT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MORE LIKELY NEAR KACT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES AGAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KACT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED BY ANY CONVECTION THAN THE DFW METROPLEX AREA BUT WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS TOMORROW FOR INCLUSION OF VCTS OR VCSH IF
NEEDED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAFS. SOUTH
WINDS AOB 11 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 14-18 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH. A SCATTERED CU FIELD WITH BASES BETWEEN 4-7 KFT WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY.

JLDUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  76  92 /   5   5   5  10  30
WACO, TX              93  75  94  75  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  88 /   5   5  10  40  70
DENTON, TX            94  74  93  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          93  75  94  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  76  93 /   5   5   5  10  30
TERRELL, TX           93  75  94  75  92 /   5   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  74  92 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  73  93  73  92 /  20  10   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  94  73  94 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/05



000
FXUS64 KBRO 010611 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
111 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MIX CLOUD DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 1600 FEET AND PIL/HRL...2800 FEET AT MFE...AND 15000 FEET
AT APY/HBV. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF DAY DUE TO A MID LEVEL FEATURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION WELL SOUTH
OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE TAF SITES AFTER 08Z
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IMPACTING LOCAL AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 11-15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63



000
FXUS64 KBRO 010611 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
111 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MIX CLOUD DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 1600 FEET AND PIL/HRL...2800 FEET AT MFE...AND 15000 FEET
AT APY/HBV. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF DAY DUE TO A MID LEVEL FEATURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION WELL SOUTH
OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE TAF SITES AFTER 08Z
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IMPACTING LOCAL AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 11-15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63



000
FXUS64 KBRO 010611 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
111 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MIX CLOUD DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 1600 FEET AND PIL/HRL...2800 FEET AT MFE...AND 15000 FEET
AT APY/HBV. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF DAY DUE TO A MID LEVEL FEATURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION WELL SOUTH
OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE TAF SITES AFTER 08Z
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IMPACTING LOCAL AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 11-15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63



000
FXUS64 KBRO 010611 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
111 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MIX CLOUD DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 1600 FEET AND PIL/HRL...2800 FEET AT MFE...AND 15000 FEET
AT APY/HBV. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF DAY DUE TO A MID LEVEL FEATURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION WELL SOUTH
OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE TAF SITES AFTER 08Z
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IMPACTING LOCAL AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 11-15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63



000
FXUS64 KBRO 010611 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
111 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MIX CLOUD DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 1600 FEET AND PIL/HRL...2800 FEET AT MFE...AND 15000 FEET
AT APY/HBV. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF DAY DUE TO A MID LEVEL FEATURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION WELL SOUTH
OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE TAF SITES AFTER 08Z
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IMPACTING LOCAL AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 11-15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63



000
FXUS64 KBRO 010611 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
111 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MIX CLOUD DECKS...LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM
AROUND 1600 FEET AND PIL/HRL...2800 FEET AT MFE...AND 15000 FEET
AT APY/HBV. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF DAY DUE TO A MID LEVEL FEATURE MOVING OVERHEAD.
LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION WELL SOUTH
OF THE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE TAF SITES AFTER 08Z
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IMPACTING LOCAL AIRPORTS
BETWEEN 11-15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KEWX 010556 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1256 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH HIGH PASSING CIRRUS. WILL SEE LOWER
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP NEAR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT AROUND 11Z GOING THROUGH
15Z BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR THEREAFTER. SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY GO BRIEFLY IFR ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND
THIS COULD SPILL INTO KSAT. KAUS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS WILL MORPH INTO CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH HI-RES MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE
NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY...FEEL THERE IS A GOOD BET CONVECTION
WILL BE NEAR KSAT/KSSF. AS SUCH...HAVE PLACED VCSH AND TEMPO TSRA
GROUP IN FROM 19-23Z. KDRT COULD RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. KAUS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO HAVE PRECIPITATION BUT
DEPENDING IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING ALONG A NORTHWARD MORNING
BOUNDARY...IT COULD MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. HAVE PLACED VCSH/VCTS
IN KAUS TAF FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT THEN NEAR 15 KT DURING THE
AFTN WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS OF
LOCALIZED 30-40 KT COULD RESULT NEAR STRONGER STORMS. THIS
RAIN/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH MID EVENING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  75  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  73  91  73  91 /  10  10  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  73  94  74  94 /  10  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  74  93  74  92 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  75  92  76  91 /  30  10  20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  74  93  75  93 /  30  10  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05



000
FXUS64 KEWX 010556 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1256 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH HIGH PASSING CIRRUS. WILL SEE LOWER
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP NEAR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT AROUND 11Z GOING THROUGH
15Z BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR THEREAFTER. SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY GO BRIEFLY IFR ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND
THIS COULD SPILL INTO KSAT. KAUS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS WILL MORPH INTO CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH HI-RES MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE
NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY...FEEL THERE IS A GOOD BET CONVECTION
WILL BE NEAR KSAT/KSSF. AS SUCH...HAVE PLACED VCSH AND TEMPO TSRA
GROUP IN FROM 19-23Z. KDRT COULD RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. KAUS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO HAVE PRECIPITATION BUT
DEPENDING IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING ALONG A NORTHWARD MORNING
BOUNDARY...IT COULD MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. HAVE PLACED VCSH/VCTS
IN KAUS TAF FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT THEN NEAR 15 KT DURING THE
AFTN WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS OF
LOCALIZED 30-40 KT COULD RESULT NEAR STRONGER STORMS. THIS
RAIN/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH MID EVENING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  75  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  73  91  73  91 /  10  10  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  73  94  74  94 /  10  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  74  93  74  92 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  75  92  76  91 /  30  10  20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  74  93  75  93 /  30  10  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05




000
FXUS64 KEWX 010556 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1256 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH HIGH PASSING CIRRUS. WILL SEE LOWER
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP NEAR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT AROUND 11Z GOING THROUGH
15Z BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR THEREAFTER. SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY GO BRIEFLY IFR ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND
THIS COULD SPILL INTO KSAT. KAUS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS WILL MORPH INTO CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH HI-RES MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE
NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY...FEEL THERE IS A GOOD BET CONVECTION
WILL BE NEAR KSAT/KSSF. AS SUCH...HAVE PLACED VCSH AND TEMPO TSRA
GROUP IN FROM 19-23Z. KDRT COULD RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. KAUS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO HAVE PRECIPITATION BUT
DEPENDING IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING ALONG A NORTHWARD MORNING
BOUNDARY...IT COULD MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. HAVE PLACED VCSH/VCTS
IN KAUS TAF FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT THEN NEAR 15 KT DURING THE
AFTN WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS OF
LOCALIZED 30-40 KT COULD RESULT NEAR STRONGER STORMS. THIS
RAIN/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH MID EVENING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  75  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  73  91  73  91 /  10  10  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  73  94  74  94 /  10  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  74  93  74  92 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  75  92  76  91 /  30  10  20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  74  93  75  93 /  30  10  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05



000
FXUS64 KEWX 010556 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1256 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH HIGH PASSING CIRRUS. WILL SEE LOWER
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP NEAR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT AROUND 11Z GOING THROUGH
15Z BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR THEREAFTER. SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY GO BRIEFLY IFR ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND
THIS COULD SPILL INTO KSAT. KAUS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS WILL MORPH INTO CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH HI-RES MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE
NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY...FEEL THERE IS A GOOD BET CONVECTION
WILL BE NEAR KSAT/KSSF. AS SUCH...HAVE PLACED VCSH AND TEMPO TSRA
GROUP IN FROM 19-23Z. KDRT COULD RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. KAUS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO HAVE PRECIPITATION BUT
DEPENDING IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING ALONG A NORTHWARD MORNING
BOUNDARY...IT COULD MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. HAVE PLACED VCSH/VCTS
IN KAUS TAF FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT THEN NEAR 15 KT DURING THE
AFTN WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS OF
LOCALIZED 30-40 KT COULD RESULT NEAR STRONGER STORMS. THIS
RAIN/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH MID EVENING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  75  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  73  91  73  91 /  10  10  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  73  94  74  94 /  10  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  74  93  74  92 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  75  92  76  91 /  30  10  20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  74  93  75  93 /  30  10  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05



000
FXUS64 KEWX 010556 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1256 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH HIGH PASSING CIRRUS. WILL SEE LOWER
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP NEAR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT AROUND 11Z GOING THROUGH
15Z BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR THEREAFTER. SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY GO BRIEFLY IFR ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND
THIS COULD SPILL INTO KSAT. KAUS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS WILL MORPH INTO CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH HI-RES MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE
NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY...FEEL THERE IS A GOOD BET CONVECTION
WILL BE NEAR KSAT/KSSF. AS SUCH...HAVE PLACED VCSH AND TEMPO TSRA
GROUP IN FROM 19-23Z. KDRT COULD RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. KAUS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO HAVE PRECIPITATION BUT
DEPENDING IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING ALONG A NORTHWARD MORNING
BOUNDARY...IT COULD MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. HAVE PLACED VCSH/VCTS
IN KAUS TAF FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT THEN NEAR 15 KT DURING THE
AFTN WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS OF
LOCALIZED 30-40 KT COULD RESULT NEAR STRONGER STORMS. THIS
RAIN/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH MID EVENING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  75  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  73  91  73  91 /  10  10  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  73  94  74  94 /  10  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  74  93  74  92 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  75  92  76  91 /  30  10  20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  74  93  75  93 /  30  10  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05



000
FXUS64 KEWX 010556 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1256 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH HIGH PASSING CIRRUS. WILL SEE LOWER
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP NEAR KSAT/KSSF/KDRT AROUND 11Z GOING THROUGH
15Z BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR THEREAFTER. SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY GO BRIEFLY IFR ACROSS THE HILL COUNTY AND
THIS COULD SPILL INTO KSAT. KAUS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS WILL MORPH INTO CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH HI-RES MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE COVERAGE MAY BE
NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY...FEEL THERE IS A GOOD BET CONVECTION
WILL BE NEAR KSAT/KSSF. AS SUCH...HAVE PLACED VCSH AND TEMPO TSRA
GROUP IN FROM 19-23Z. KDRT COULD RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL BY
LATE AFTERNOON. KAUS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO HAVE PRECIPITATION BUT
DEPENDING IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING ALONG A NORTHWARD MORNING
BOUNDARY...IT COULD MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. HAVE PLACED VCSH/VCTS
IN KAUS TAF FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT THEN NEAR 15 KT DURING THE
AFTN WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT. EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS OF
LOCALIZED 30-40 KT COULD RESULT NEAR STRONGER STORMS. THIS
RAIN/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH MID EVENING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  75  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     90  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            90  73  91  73  91 /  10  10  -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  73  94  74  94 /  10  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        91  74  93  74  92 /  10  10  -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  72  93  72  93 /  20  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  75  92  76  91 /  30  10  20  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           91  74  93  75  93 /  30  10  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05



000
FXUS64 KCRP 010550 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATER
TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE DEVELOPING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY. MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION MAY BE
INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AS RIDGE FROM THE NORTH NUDGES
SOUTHWARD. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAY SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF
FOG OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BUT
ISOLATED IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE NEAR ALI. SHOWED MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
IFR VSBYS EXPECTED WITHIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EXPECT CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU 06Z THU.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  90  77  91  78  /  20  20  10  20  10
VICTORIA          75  90  75  90  77  /  10  20  10  20  10
LAREDO            75  96  75  99  77  /  10  20  10  10   0
ALICE             75  92  76  94  77  /  10  20  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          80  88  80  88  80  /  20  20  10  20  20
COTULLA           75  94  74  97  75  /  10  20  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        77  92  77  93  78  /  20  20  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  87  79  88  80  /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 010550 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATER
TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE DEVELOPING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY. MID-LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION MAY BE
INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AS RIDGE FROM THE NORTH NUDGES
SOUTHWARD. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAY SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF
FOG OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BUT
ISOLATED IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE NEAR ALI. SHOWED MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
WITH CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
IFR VSBYS EXPECTED WITHIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EXPECT CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU 06Z THU.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  90  77  91  78  /  20  20  10  20  10
VICTORIA          75  90  75  90  77  /  10  20  10  20  10
LAREDO            75  96  75  99  77  /  10  20  10  10   0
ALICE             75  92  76  94  77  /  10  20  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          80  88  80  88  80  /  20  20  10  20  20
COTULLA           75  94  74  97  75  /  10  20  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        77  92  77  93  78  /  20  20  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  87  79  88  80  /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KMAF 010548
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1248 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MUCH QUIETER NIGHT TONIGHT, W/A FEW HIGH CLOUD OVER WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS DUE TO LAST NIGHT`S MCS, AND STRATUS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LATEST BUFFER SOUNDINGS BRING IN A FEW
HOURS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AT KMAF, AND MVFR AT KINK/KFST AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, LOW-BASED CU FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A 35+KT LLJ
RESUMES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE CWA IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE PUTTING THE AREA UNDER EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE EARLIER STORMS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA,
LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS WERE NOT
AFFECTED MUCH BY THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE
MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS INDICATED BY A 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED OMEGA. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE UPPER LIFT MOVES SOUTHWARD, STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
MOVING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL ON
FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING THIS TIME DUE TO THE RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44



000
FXUS64 KMAF 010548
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1248 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MUCH QUIETER NIGHT TONIGHT, W/A FEW HIGH CLOUD OVER WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS DUE TO LAST NIGHT`S MCS, AND STRATUS IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LATEST BUFFER SOUNDINGS BRING IN A FEW
HOURS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AT KMAF, AND MVFR AT KINK/KFST AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, LOW-BASED CU FIELD IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A 35+KT LLJ
RESUMES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE CWA IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE PUTTING THE AREA UNDER EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE EARLIER STORMS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA,
LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS WERE NOT
AFFECTED MUCH BY THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE
MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS INDICATED BY A 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED OMEGA. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE UPPER LIFT MOVES SOUTHWARD, STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
MOVING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL ON
FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING THIS TIME DUE TO THE RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010451
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1151 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS REMAINING SO FAR TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH MAYBE
A MIX OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY FOR KCLL/KUTS/KCXO. THINK HOUSTON
TERMINALS STAY VFR FOR THE MORNING EXCEPT FOR MAYBE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS BUT SCT STRATOCU MORE LIKELY.

CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE THE TRICK FOR TOMORROW. MONITORING
TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE W GULF WHICH COULD SURGE NORTH AGAIN
TOMORROW. HAVE VCSH/VCTS FOR MOST TAF SITES LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. UNSURE HOW FAR NORTH CONVECTION WILL INITIATE SO
LEFT OUT MENTION IN KCLL/KUTS. MAY NEED TO ADD VCTS TO THESE TAFS
FOR 12Z UPDATE. WHILE NW FLOW WILL STILL BE PRESENT
TOMORROW...EXPECTATION IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IT WAS A BUSY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE HOUSTON
AREA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM THE HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM PEAKED AT 3 TO 4
INCHES...AND A LOT OF THAT FELL IN A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD RESULTING IN
THE FLOODING AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND INTO THE AREA WITH A SUPPORTIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND STRUCTURE.
DURING THE EVENT...WE WERE ABLE TO VIEW ONE RAINFALL RATE OF 0.56 INCHES
IN JUST 15 MINUTES!

EVERYTHING HAS CALMED DOWN THIS EVENING...AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. FOR TOMORROW...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WERE AROUND THE AREA TODAY. WE MIGHT HAVE ANOTHER
BUSY DAY...AND MORE DETAILS WILL COME WITH THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE. 42

CLIMATE...
HOUSTON IAH SET A RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE DAY TODAY WITH 2.26 INCHES
(OLD RECORD WAS 1.52 INCHES IN 1948). THIS BROUGHT THE MONTHLY TOTAL
UP TO 11.39 INCHES...WHICH MAKES JUNE 2015 THE 8TH WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD. ALSO...

- JUNE`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH MAY`S 14.17 INCHES MAKES THE TWO MONTH
TOTAL 25.56 INCHES WHICH IS 0.99 INCHES MORE THAN THE RAINFALL TOTAL
FOR ALL OF 2011 OF 24.57 INCHES.

- HOUSTON IAH`S YEARLY TOTAL FOR 2015 SO FAR IS 41.62 INCHES. THIS IS
MORE RAIN ALREADY THAN WE HAD IN A YEAR FOR BOTH 2013 AND 2011. THIS
IS ALSO WITHIN 2 INCHES OF THE YEARLY TOTALS OF 2014...2012...AND 2010.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE DECREASING TSRA
ACROSS KIAH/KHOU. STORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING ALREADY SO MAY NEED
TO AMMEND IN THE NEXT HOUR TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF TSRA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY GO FOR A LOT OF THE TAF SITES. ONLY OTHER ISSUES WILL BE
MVFR CIGS OR FOG THAT DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART
THINK ANY MVFR CIGS WILL BE BRIEF SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. TOMORROW COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA SO HAVE A MENTION
WITH VCTS. SHOULD HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT WILL NOT HAVE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE ABUNDANT AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90F FOR INITIATION. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE TO TRIGGER STORMS.

39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  92  76  92  76 /  10  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  93  76  93  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  81  88  81 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39



000
FXUS64 KHGX 010451
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1151 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS REMAINING SO FAR TONIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH MAYBE
A MIX OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY FOR KCLL/KUTS/KCXO. THINK HOUSTON
TERMINALS STAY VFR FOR THE MORNING EXCEPT FOR MAYBE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS BUT SCT STRATOCU MORE LIKELY.

CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE THE TRICK FOR TOMORROW. MONITORING
TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE W GULF WHICH COULD SURGE NORTH AGAIN
TOMORROW. HAVE VCSH/VCTS FOR MOST TAF SITES LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. UNSURE HOW FAR NORTH CONVECTION WILL INITIATE SO
LEFT OUT MENTION IN KCLL/KUTS. MAY NEED TO ADD VCTS TO THESE TAFS
FOR 12Z UPDATE. WHILE NW FLOW WILL STILL BE PRESENT
TOMORROW...EXPECTATION IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IT WAS A BUSY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE HOUSTON
AREA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM THE HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM PEAKED AT 3 TO 4
INCHES...AND A LOT OF THAT FELL IN A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD RESULTING IN
THE FLOODING AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND INTO THE AREA WITH A SUPPORTIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND STRUCTURE.
DURING THE EVENT...WE WERE ABLE TO VIEW ONE RAINFALL RATE OF 0.56 INCHES
IN JUST 15 MINUTES!

EVERYTHING HAS CALMED DOWN THIS EVENING...AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. FOR TOMORROW...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WERE AROUND THE AREA TODAY. WE MIGHT HAVE ANOTHER
BUSY DAY...AND MORE DETAILS WILL COME WITH THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE. 42

CLIMATE...
HOUSTON IAH SET A RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE DAY TODAY WITH 2.26 INCHES
(OLD RECORD WAS 1.52 INCHES IN 1948). THIS BROUGHT THE MONTHLY TOTAL
UP TO 11.39 INCHES...WHICH MAKES JUNE 2015 THE 8TH WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD. ALSO...

- JUNE`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH MAY`S 14.17 INCHES MAKES THE TWO MONTH
TOTAL 25.56 INCHES WHICH IS 0.99 INCHES MORE THAN THE RAINFALL TOTAL
FOR ALL OF 2011 OF 24.57 INCHES.

- HOUSTON IAH`S YEARLY TOTAL FOR 2015 SO FAR IS 41.62 INCHES. THIS IS
MORE RAIN ALREADY THAN WE HAD IN A YEAR FOR BOTH 2013 AND 2011. THIS
IS ALSO WITHIN 2 INCHES OF THE YEARLY TOTALS OF 2014...2012...AND 2010.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE DECREASING TSRA
ACROSS KIAH/KHOU. STORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING ALREADY SO MAY NEED
TO AMMEND IN THE NEXT HOUR TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF TSRA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY GO FOR A LOT OF THE TAF SITES. ONLY OTHER ISSUES WILL BE
MVFR CIGS OR FOG THAT DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART
THINK ANY MVFR CIGS WILL BE BRIEF SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. TOMORROW COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA SO HAVE A MENTION
WITH VCTS. SHOULD HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT WILL NOT HAVE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE ABUNDANT AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90F FOR INITIATION. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE TO TRIGGER STORMS.

39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  92  76  92  76 /  10  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  93  76  93  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  81  88  81 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KSJT 010450
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1150 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

No main impacts expected through tonight. Breezy south to
southeast winds of 15 to 25kts and stronger are expected tomorrow
as a strong surface pressure gradient builds across West Central
Texas. Expect scattered fair weather cumulus during the late
morning and afternoon as upper level high pressure prevails.

26

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015/

UPDATE...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along and south of Interstate 20 through the evening
hours. Low POPs were added for the rest of the evening. No other
changes needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF BRADY TO
JUNCTION TO SONORA AND OZONA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND WIND GUSTS EVEN STRONGER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL ALSO FORM NEAR KABI THRU THIS
EVENING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LIGHTNING. EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. FOR THIS REASON...INSERTED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
will be unfavorable for any convective development. Going with a dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday across the area. Lows tonight will be
upper 60s to mid 70s with highs Wednesday mainly in the 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue for several days.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Inter-mountain West,
with a trough developing across the eastern CONUS. In this type of
upper-level pattern, a northwest flow will develop across the
region. Closer to the surface, southeast to south surface will allow
dewpoints in the 60s or better to persist through the period. Thus,
expect the muggy conditions to continue.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a vorticity maximum diving into
the eastern trough is forecast to send a weak cold front southward
towards West Central Texas. This front may approach the Red River
Valley on Friday as it stalls/washes out. Although the front isn`t
expected to progress into our forecast area, it may be close enough
to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to locations north of
a Sterling City to Baird line during the day Friday. The previous
forecast package had slight chance POPs in that area and this looks
good, so no changes were made. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Early next week, the western ridge will build east with the ridge
axis stretching from the West Coast, through Oklahoma, to the
southeastern states. Rising upper-level heights will lead to
increasing temperatures, and this was reflected in the forecast
with a slight uptick in afternoon highs. However, given the moist
soil conditions from rainfall over the last several days/weeks,
temperatures are not expected to reach the century mark, as the
soil moisture helps negate that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  94  72  93  75 /  10   0  10   5  10
San Angelo  70  92  70  92  72 /  20   5   5   5   5
Junction  70  91  69  90  71 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26






000
FXUS64 KSJT 010450
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1150 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

No main impacts expected through tonight. Breezy south to
southeast winds of 15 to 25kts and stronger are expected tomorrow
as a strong surface pressure gradient builds across West Central
Texas. Expect scattered fair weather cumulus during the late
morning and afternoon as upper level high pressure prevails.

26

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015/

UPDATE...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along and south of Interstate 20 through the evening
hours. Low POPs were added for the rest of the evening. No other
changes needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF BRADY TO
JUNCTION TO SONORA AND OZONA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND WIND GUSTS EVEN STRONGER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL ALSO FORM NEAR KABI THRU THIS
EVENING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LIGHTNING. EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. FOR THIS REASON...INSERTED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
will be unfavorable for any convective development. Going with a dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday across the area. Lows tonight will be
upper 60s to mid 70s with highs Wednesday mainly in the 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue for several days.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Inter-mountain West,
with a trough developing across the eastern CONUS. In this type of
upper-level pattern, a northwest flow will develop across the
region. Closer to the surface, southeast to south surface will allow
dewpoints in the 60s or better to persist through the period. Thus,
expect the muggy conditions to continue.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a vorticity maximum diving into
the eastern trough is forecast to send a weak cold front southward
towards West Central Texas. This front may approach the Red River
Valley on Friday as it stalls/washes out. Although the front isn`t
expected to progress into our forecast area, it may be close enough
to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to locations north of
a Sterling City to Baird line during the day Friday. The previous
forecast package had slight chance POPs in that area and this looks
good, so no changes were made. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Early next week, the western ridge will build east with the ridge
axis stretching from the West Coast, through Oklahoma, to the
southeastern states. Rising upper-level heights will lead to
increasing temperatures, and this was reflected in the forecast
with a slight uptick in afternoon highs. However, given the moist
soil conditions from rainfall over the last several days/weeks,
temperatures are not expected to reach the century mark, as the
soil moisture helps negate that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  94  72  93  75 /  10   0  10   5  10
San Angelo  70  92  70  92  72 /  20   5   5   5   5
Junction  70  91  69  90  71 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26






000
FXUS64 KSJT 010450
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1150 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

No main impacts expected through tonight. Breezy south to
southeast winds of 15 to 25kts and stronger are expected tomorrow
as a strong surface pressure gradient builds across West Central
Texas. Expect scattered fair weather cumulus during the late
morning and afternoon as upper level high pressure prevails.

26

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015/

UPDATE...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along and south of Interstate 20 through the evening
hours. Low POPs were added for the rest of the evening. No other
changes needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF BRADY TO
JUNCTION TO SONORA AND OZONA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND WIND GUSTS EVEN STRONGER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL ALSO FORM NEAR KABI THRU THIS
EVENING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LIGHTNING. EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. FOR THIS REASON...INSERTED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
will be unfavorable for any convective development. Going with a dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday across the area. Lows tonight will be
upper 60s to mid 70s with highs Wednesday mainly in the 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue for several days.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Inter-mountain West,
with a trough developing across the eastern CONUS. In this type of
upper-level pattern, a northwest flow will develop across the
region. Closer to the surface, southeast to south surface will allow
dewpoints in the 60s or better to persist through the period. Thus,
expect the muggy conditions to continue.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a vorticity maximum diving into
the eastern trough is forecast to send a weak cold front southward
towards West Central Texas. This front may approach the Red River
Valley on Friday as it stalls/washes out. Although the front isn`t
expected to progress into our forecast area, it may be close enough
to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to locations north of
a Sterling City to Baird line during the day Friday. The previous
forecast package had slight chance POPs in that area and this looks
good, so no changes were made. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Early next week, the western ridge will build east with the ridge
axis stretching from the West Coast, through Oklahoma, to the
southeastern states. Rising upper-level heights will lead to
increasing temperatures, and this was reflected in the forecast
with a slight uptick in afternoon highs. However, given the moist
soil conditions from rainfall over the last several days/weeks,
temperatures are not expected to reach the century mark, as the
soil moisture helps negate that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  94  72  93  75 /  10   0  10   5  10
San Angelo  70  92  70  92  72 /  20   5   5   5   5
Junction  70  91  69  90  71 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26






000
FXUS64 KSJT 010450
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1150 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

No main impacts expected through tonight. Breezy south to
southeast winds of 15 to 25kts and stronger are expected tomorrow
as a strong surface pressure gradient builds across West Central
Texas. Expect scattered fair weather cumulus during the late
morning and afternoon as upper level high pressure prevails.

26

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015/

UPDATE...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along and south of Interstate 20 through the evening
hours. Low POPs were added for the rest of the evening. No other
changes needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF BRADY TO
JUNCTION TO SONORA AND OZONA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND WIND GUSTS EVEN STRONGER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL ALSO FORM NEAR KABI THRU THIS
EVENING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LIGHTNING. EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. FOR THIS REASON...INSERTED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
will be unfavorable for any convective development. Going with a dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday across the area. Lows tonight will be
upper 60s to mid 70s with highs Wednesday mainly in the 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue for several days.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Inter-mountain West,
with a trough developing across the eastern CONUS. In this type of
upper-level pattern, a northwest flow will develop across the
region. Closer to the surface, southeast to south surface will allow
dewpoints in the 60s or better to persist through the period. Thus,
expect the muggy conditions to continue.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a vorticity maximum diving into
the eastern trough is forecast to send a weak cold front southward
towards West Central Texas. This front may approach the Red River
Valley on Friday as it stalls/washes out. Although the front isn`t
expected to progress into our forecast area, it may be close enough
to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to locations north of
a Sterling City to Baird line during the day Friday. The previous
forecast package had slight chance POPs in that area and this looks
good, so no changes were made. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Early next week, the western ridge will build east with the ridge
axis stretching from the West Coast, through Oklahoma, to the
southeastern states. Rising upper-level heights will lead to
increasing temperatures, and this was reflected in the forecast
with a slight uptick in afternoon highs. However, given the moist
soil conditions from rainfall over the last several days/weeks,
temperatures are not expected to reach the century mark, as the
soil moisture helps negate that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  94  72  93  75 /  10   0  10   5  10
San Angelo  70  92  70  92  72 /  20   5   5   5   5
Junction  70  91  69  90  71 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26






000
FXUS64 KLUB 010443
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z MOS HAS COME IN LINE WITH GRIDDED DATA IN SHOWING STRATUS
ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE TAKING THE LONG WAY AROUND THE SFC RIDGE SO ONLY
FORECASTING A FEW CLOUDS TO SNEAK INTO KLBB TERMINAL...OTHERWISE
VFR CONTINUES. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET HAS DIMINISHED ON LATEST
RUN BUT STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTY SW WINDS AS THE MORNING INVERSION
BREAKS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MCS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING LEFT THE ROLLING PLAINS FAIRLY STABLE WHILE THE SOUTH
PLAINS SEES A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. ALOFT...THE JET STREAM
THAT HELPED INITIATE STORMS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST A BIT AS WELL.
THIS HAS LIKELY RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WHERE CU ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TODAY...THEY
WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVERHEAD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF ANY FRONTS
WILL HAVE AID IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER THIS WEEK. ANY FRONTS DO LOOK TO STALL OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE BUT ANY MOVEMENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN
IN MODELS COULD BOOST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS FORMING EVERY EVENING WILL FURTHER INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH AS ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL MIGRATE BACK EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SQUASH
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE...IT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO MONSOONAL LIKE CONVECTION FROM
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  66  89 /   0  10  20  30
TULIA         63  93  69  89 /   0   0  20  30
PLAINVIEW     64  91  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     66  93  67  91 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       66  94  68  92 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   64  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  92 /   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     70  98  73  94 /   0   0  10  20
SPUR          68  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     69  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24




000
FXUS64 KLUB 010443
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z MOS HAS COME IN LINE WITH GRIDDED DATA IN SHOWING STRATUS
ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE TAKING THE LONG WAY AROUND THE SFC RIDGE SO ONLY
FORECASTING A FEW CLOUDS TO SNEAK INTO KLBB TERMINAL...OTHERWISE
VFR CONTINUES. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET HAS DIMINISHED ON LATEST
RUN BUT STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTY SW WINDS AS THE MORNING INVERSION
BREAKS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MCS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING LEFT THE ROLLING PLAINS FAIRLY STABLE WHILE THE SOUTH
PLAINS SEES A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. ALOFT...THE JET STREAM
THAT HELPED INITIATE STORMS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST A BIT AS WELL.
THIS HAS LIKELY RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WHERE CU ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TODAY...THEY
WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVERHEAD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF ANY FRONTS
WILL HAVE AID IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER THIS WEEK. ANY FRONTS DO LOOK TO STALL OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE BUT ANY MOVEMENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN
IN MODELS COULD BOOST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS FORMING EVERY EVENING WILL FURTHER INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH AS ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL MIGRATE BACK EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SQUASH
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE...IT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO MONSOONAL LIKE CONVECTION FROM
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  66  89 /   0  10  20  30
TULIA         63  93  69  89 /   0   0  20  30
PLAINVIEW     64  91  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     66  93  67  91 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       66  94  68  92 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   64  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  92 /   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     70  98  73  94 /   0   0  10  20
SPUR          68  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     69  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24




000
FXUS64 KLUB 010443
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z MOS HAS COME IN LINE WITH GRIDDED DATA IN SHOWING STRATUS
ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE TAKING THE LONG WAY AROUND THE SFC RIDGE SO ONLY
FORECASTING A FEW CLOUDS TO SNEAK INTO KLBB TERMINAL...OTHERWISE
VFR CONTINUES. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET HAS DIMINISHED ON LATEST
RUN BUT STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTY SW WINDS AS THE MORNING INVERSION
BREAKS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MCS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING LEFT THE ROLLING PLAINS FAIRLY STABLE WHILE THE SOUTH
PLAINS SEES A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. ALOFT...THE JET STREAM
THAT HELPED INITIATE STORMS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST A BIT AS WELL.
THIS HAS LIKELY RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WHERE CU ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TODAY...THEY
WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVERHEAD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF ANY FRONTS
WILL HAVE AID IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER THIS WEEK. ANY FRONTS DO LOOK TO STALL OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE BUT ANY MOVEMENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN
IN MODELS COULD BOOST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS FORMING EVERY EVENING WILL FURTHER INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH AS ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL MIGRATE BACK EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SQUASH
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE...IT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO MONSOONAL LIKE CONVECTION FROM
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  66  89 /   0  10  20  30
TULIA         63  93  69  89 /   0   0  20  30
PLAINVIEW     64  91  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     66  93  67  91 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       66  94  68  92 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   64  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  92 /   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     70  98  73  94 /   0   0  10  20
SPUR          68  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     69  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24




000
FXUS64 KLUB 010443
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z MOS HAS COME IN LINE WITH GRIDDED DATA IN SHOWING STRATUS
ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE TAKING THE LONG WAY AROUND THE SFC RIDGE SO ONLY
FORECASTING A FEW CLOUDS TO SNEAK INTO KLBB TERMINAL...OTHERWISE
VFR CONTINUES. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET HAS DIMINISHED ON LATEST
RUN BUT STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTY SW WINDS AS THE MORNING INVERSION
BREAKS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MCS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING LEFT THE ROLLING PLAINS FAIRLY STABLE WHILE THE SOUTH
PLAINS SEES A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. ALOFT...THE JET STREAM
THAT HELPED INITIATE STORMS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST A BIT AS WELL.
THIS HAS LIKELY RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WHERE CU ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TODAY...THEY
WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVERHEAD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF ANY FRONTS
WILL HAVE AID IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER THIS WEEK. ANY FRONTS DO LOOK TO STALL OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE BUT ANY MOVEMENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN
IN MODELS COULD BOOST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS FORMING EVERY EVENING WILL FURTHER INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH AS ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL MIGRATE BACK EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SQUASH
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE...IT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO MONSOONAL LIKE CONVECTION FROM
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  66  89 /   0  10  20  30
TULIA         63  93  69  89 /   0   0  20  30
PLAINVIEW     64  91  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     66  93  67  91 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       66  94  68  92 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   64  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  92 /   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     70  98  73  94 /   0   0  10  20
SPUR          68  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     69  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24




000
FXUS64 KLUB 010443
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z MOS HAS COME IN LINE WITH GRIDDED DATA IN SHOWING STRATUS
ADVECTING NORTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE TAKING THE LONG WAY AROUND THE SFC RIDGE SO ONLY
FORECASTING A FEW CLOUDS TO SNEAK INTO KLBB TERMINAL...OTHERWISE
VFR CONTINUES. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET HAS DIMINISHED ON LATEST
RUN BUT STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTY SW WINDS AS THE MORNING INVERSION
BREAKS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MCS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING LEFT THE ROLLING PLAINS FAIRLY STABLE WHILE THE SOUTH
PLAINS SEES A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. ALOFT...THE JET STREAM
THAT HELPED INITIATE STORMS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST A BIT AS WELL.
THIS HAS LIKELY RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WHERE CU ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TODAY...THEY
WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVERHEAD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF ANY FRONTS
WILL HAVE AID IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER THIS WEEK. ANY FRONTS DO LOOK TO STALL OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE BUT ANY MOVEMENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN
IN MODELS COULD BOOST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS FORMING EVERY EVENING WILL FURTHER INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH AS ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL MIGRATE BACK EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SQUASH
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE...IT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO MONSOONAL LIKE CONVECTION FROM
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  66  89 /   0  10  20  30
TULIA         63  93  69  89 /   0   0  20  30
PLAINVIEW     64  91  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     66  93  67  91 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       66  94  68  92 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   64  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  92 /   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     70  98  73  94 /   0   0  10  20
SPUR          68  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     69  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24




000
FXUS64 KFWD 010442 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE BUT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MORE LIKELY NEAR KACT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES AGAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KACT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED BY ANY CONVECTION THAN THE DFW METROPLEX AREA BUT WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS TOMORROW FOR INCLUSION OF VCTS OR VCSH IF
NEEDED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAFS. SOUTH
WINDS AOB 11 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 14-18 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH. A SCATTERED CU FIELD WITH BASES BETWEEN 4-7 KFT WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY.

JLDUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF
AN EASTLAND TO ENNIS LINE AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
DENTON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z /1 AM/.
OTHERWISE... HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE...AS THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS FROM THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS AND
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A COL ALOFT...THE
STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN OUR CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALLOWED
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO SURVIVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST A
MILE OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. POPS GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY WEAK FLOW (THE 12Z FWD RAOB FOUND WINDS
WERE UNDER 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE) COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE LITTLE INHIBITION...A LACK OF
ANY FOCUS FOR LIFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES...ACTIVITY MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...STILL PRIMARILY IMPACTING OKLAHOMA...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

25


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            72  94  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  93  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  94  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  94  73 /  10   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 010442 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE BUT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MORE LIKELY NEAR KACT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES AGAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KACT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED BY ANY CONVECTION THAN THE DFW METROPLEX AREA BUT WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS TOMORROW FOR INCLUSION OF VCTS OR VCSH IF
NEEDED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAFS. SOUTH
WINDS AOB 11 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 14-18 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH. A SCATTERED CU FIELD WITH BASES BETWEEN 4-7 KFT WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY.

JLDUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF
AN EASTLAND TO ENNIS LINE AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
DENTON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z /1 AM/.
OTHERWISE... HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE...AS THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS FROM THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS AND
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A COL ALOFT...THE
STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN OUR CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALLOWED
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO SURVIVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST A
MILE OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. POPS GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY WEAK FLOW (THE 12Z FWD RAOB FOUND WINDS
WERE UNDER 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE) COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE LITTLE INHIBITION...A LACK OF
ANY FOCUS FOR LIFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES...ACTIVITY MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...STILL PRIMARILY IMPACTING OKLAHOMA...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

25


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            72  94  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  93  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  94  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  94  73 /  10   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 010442 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE BUT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MORE LIKELY NEAR KACT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES AGAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KACT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED BY ANY CONVECTION THAN THE DFW METROPLEX AREA BUT WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS TOMORROW FOR INCLUSION OF VCTS OR VCSH IF
NEEDED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAFS. SOUTH
WINDS AOB 11 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 14-18 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH. A SCATTERED CU FIELD WITH BASES BETWEEN 4-7 KFT WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY.

JLDUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF
AN EASTLAND TO ENNIS LINE AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
DENTON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z /1 AM/.
OTHERWISE... HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE...AS THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS FROM THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS AND
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A COL ALOFT...THE
STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN OUR CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALLOWED
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO SURVIVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST A
MILE OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. POPS GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY WEAK FLOW (THE 12Z FWD RAOB FOUND WINDS
WERE UNDER 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE) COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE LITTLE INHIBITION...A LACK OF
ANY FOCUS FOR LIFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES...ACTIVITY MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...STILL PRIMARILY IMPACTING OKLAHOMA...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

25


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            72  94  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  93  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  94  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  94  73 /  10   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58



000
FXUS64 KFWD 010442 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1142 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NONE BUT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MORE LIKELY NEAR KACT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES AGAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KACT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED BY ANY CONVECTION THAN THE DFW METROPLEX AREA BUT WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS TOMORROW FOR INCLUSION OF VCTS OR VCSH IF
NEEDED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAFS. SOUTH
WINDS AOB 11 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 14-18 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH. A SCATTERED CU FIELD WITH BASES BETWEEN 4-7 KFT WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY.

JLDUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF
AN EASTLAND TO ENNIS LINE AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
DENTON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z /1 AM/.
OTHERWISE... HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE...AS THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS FROM THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS AND
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A COL ALOFT...THE
STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN OUR CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALLOWED
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO SURVIVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST A
MILE OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. POPS GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY WEAK FLOW (THE 12Z FWD RAOB FOUND WINDS
WERE UNDER 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE) COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE LITTLE INHIBITION...A LACK OF
ANY FOCUS FOR LIFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES...ACTIVITY MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...STILL PRIMARILY IMPACTING OKLAHOMA...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

25


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            72  94  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  93  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  94  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  94  73 /  10   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58



000
FXUS64 KAMA 010333 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1033 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
START TO EDGE INTO THE GUY TAF SITE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING TAKING THE
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST. THIS FRONT MAY BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF THIS FAR OUT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER SOME NEAR THE FRONT
AT DHT AND GUY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES. A
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO KGUY AROUND 18Z TOMORROW BUT WONT
MAKE IT INTO KDHT BEFORE 00Z. PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SO FOR THIS PERIOD THE FOCUS IS MOSTLY ON WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LITE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES UNTIL 09Z WHEN THEY PICK
UP AND THEN START GUSTING AROUND 13Z TO 15Z. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH KGUY...WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
KDHT WINDS WILL BACK TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND CALM A BIT.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE FROM
EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
KEEP OUR REGION DRY TODAY. SOME CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREAS.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE UNCERTAIN AND A FURTHER
SOUTHWARD PUSH MAY OCCUR IF COLD POOL GENERATION FROM CONVECTION TO
OUR NORTH IS EXTENSIVE LATE WEDNESDAY.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION WERE RETAINED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DETAILS ARE
STILL NOT VERY CLEAR SO WAS NOT ABLE TO ADD MUCH MORE DETAIL TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER
DEFINE PERIODS OF HIGHEST CHANCES. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE AS WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AGAIN. KEPT SATURDAY DRY BECAUSE OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. WITH STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
POTENTIALLY FAVORING TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION TO ENTER AT LEAST
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...INTRODUCED NEAR CLIMO
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BRB/HL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/16






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010333 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1033 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
START TO EDGE INTO THE GUY TAF SITE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING TAKING THE
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST. THIS FRONT MAY BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF THIS FAR OUT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER SOME NEAR THE FRONT
AT DHT AND GUY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES. A
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO KGUY AROUND 18Z TOMORROW BUT WONT
MAKE IT INTO KDHT BEFORE 00Z. PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SO FOR THIS PERIOD THE FOCUS IS MOSTLY ON WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LITE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES UNTIL 09Z WHEN THEY PICK
UP AND THEN START GUSTING AROUND 13Z TO 15Z. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH KGUY...WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
KDHT WINDS WILL BACK TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND CALM A BIT.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE FROM
EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
KEEP OUR REGION DRY TODAY. SOME CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREAS.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE UNCERTAIN AND A FURTHER
SOUTHWARD PUSH MAY OCCUR IF COLD POOL GENERATION FROM CONVECTION TO
OUR NORTH IS EXTENSIVE LATE WEDNESDAY.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION WERE RETAINED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DETAILS ARE
STILL NOT VERY CLEAR SO WAS NOT ABLE TO ADD MUCH MORE DETAIL TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER
DEFINE PERIODS OF HIGHEST CHANCES. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE AS WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AGAIN. KEPT SATURDAY DRY BECAUSE OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. WITH STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
POTENTIALLY FAVORING TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION TO ENTER AT LEAST
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...INTRODUCED NEAR CLIMO
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BRB/HL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/16






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010333 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1033 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
START TO EDGE INTO THE GUY TAF SITE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING TAKING THE
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST. THIS FRONT MAY BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF THIS FAR OUT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER SOME NEAR THE FRONT
AT DHT AND GUY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES. A
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO KGUY AROUND 18Z TOMORROW BUT WONT
MAKE IT INTO KDHT BEFORE 00Z. PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SO FOR THIS PERIOD THE FOCUS IS MOSTLY ON WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LITE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES UNTIL 09Z WHEN THEY PICK
UP AND THEN START GUSTING AROUND 13Z TO 15Z. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH KGUY...WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
KDHT WINDS WILL BACK TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND CALM A BIT.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE FROM
EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
KEEP OUR REGION DRY TODAY. SOME CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREAS.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE UNCERTAIN AND A FURTHER
SOUTHWARD PUSH MAY OCCUR IF COLD POOL GENERATION FROM CONVECTION TO
OUR NORTH IS EXTENSIVE LATE WEDNESDAY.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION WERE RETAINED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DETAILS ARE
STILL NOT VERY CLEAR SO WAS NOT ABLE TO ADD MUCH MORE DETAIL TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER
DEFINE PERIODS OF HIGHEST CHANCES. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE AS WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AGAIN. KEPT SATURDAY DRY BECAUSE OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. WITH STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
POTENTIALLY FAVORING TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION TO ENTER AT LEAST
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...INTRODUCED NEAR CLIMO
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BRB/HL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/16






000
FXUS64 KAMA 010333 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1033 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL
START TO EDGE INTO THE GUY TAF SITE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING TAKING THE
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST. THIS FRONT MAY BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF THIS FAR OUT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER SOME NEAR THE FRONT
AT DHT AND GUY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES. A
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO KGUY AROUND 18Z TOMORROW BUT WONT
MAKE IT INTO KDHT BEFORE 00Z. PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SO FOR THIS PERIOD THE FOCUS IS MOSTLY ON WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LITE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES UNTIL 09Z WHEN THEY PICK
UP AND THEN START GUSTING AROUND 13Z TO 15Z. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH KGUY...WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
KDHT WINDS WILL BACK TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND CALM A BIT.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE FROM
EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
KEEP OUR REGION DRY TODAY. SOME CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREAS.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE UNCERTAIN AND A FURTHER
SOUTHWARD PUSH MAY OCCUR IF COLD POOL GENERATION FROM CONVECTION TO
OUR NORTH IS EXTENSIVE LATE WEDNESDAY.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION WERE RETAINED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DETAILS ARE
STILL NOT VERY CLEAR SO WAS NOT ABLE TO ADD MUCH MORE DETAIL TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER
DEFINE PERIODS OF HIGHEST CHANCES. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE AS WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AGAIN. KEPT SATURDAY DRY BECAUSE OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. WITH STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
POTENTIALLY FAVORING TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION TO ENTER AT LEAST
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...INTRODUCED NEAR CLIMO
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BRB/HL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/16






000
FXUS64 KFWD 010255 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
955 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF
AN EASTLAND TO ENNIS LINE AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
DENTON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z /1 AM/.
OTHERWISE... HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE...AS THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS FROM THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS AND
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...VCTS/VCSH THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS ALONG THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING SEA BREEZE AND OTHER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BEING PRODUCING BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR KACT AND
NOW A FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE DFW METROPLEX.
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

FOR KACT...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE IS TRACKED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 0030-0100Z. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WILL
KEEP A VCTS MENTION THROUGH 02Z AND THEN EXPECT THE RAIN
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AFTER 02Z...VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...BUT
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE DFW METROPLEX AIRPORTS...WILL MENTION VCSH THROUGH 02Z AT
KDAL...KDFW...AND KAFW. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY VCTS AT KFTW AND KGKY
WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR
PREVAILING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10
KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 14-17 KTS
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
TAF ISSUANCES MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS FOR TOMORROW.

JLDUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A COL ALOFT...THE
STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN OUR CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALLOWED
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO SURVIVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST A
MILE OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. POPS GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY WEAK FLOW (THE 12Z FWD RAOB FOUND WINDS
WERE UNDER 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE) COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE LITTLE INHIBITION...A LACK OF
ANY FOCUS FOR LIFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES...ACTIVITY MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...STILL PRIMARILY IMPACTING OKLAHOMA...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            72  94  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  93  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  94  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  94  73 /  10   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 010255 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
955 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF
AN EASTLAND TO ENNIS LINE AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO
DENTON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY 06Z /1 AM/.
OTHERWISE... HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE...AS THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS FROM THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS AND
HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...VCTS/VCSH THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS ALONG THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING SEA BREEZE AND OTHER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BEING PRODUCING BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR KACT AND
NOW A FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE DFW METROPLEX.
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

FOR KACT...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE IS TRACKED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 0030-0100Z. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WILL
KEEP A VCTS MENTION THROUGH 02Z AND THEN EXPECT THE RAIN
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AFTER 02Z...VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...BUT
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE DFW METROPLEX AIRPORTS...WILL MENTION VCSH THROUGH 02Z AT
KDAL...KDFW...AND KAFW. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY VCTS AT KFTW AND KGKY
WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR
PREVAILING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10
KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 14-17 KTS
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
TAF ISSUANCES MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS FOR TOMORROW.

JLDUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A COL ALOFT...THE
STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN OUR CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALLOWED
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO SURVIVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST A
MILE OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. POPS GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY WEAK FLOW (THE 12Z FWD RAOB FOUND WINDS
WERE UNDER 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE) COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE LITTLE INHIBITION...A LACK OF
ANY FOCUS FOR LIFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES...ACTIVITY MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...STILL PRIMARILY IMPACTING OKLAHOMA...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            72  94  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  93  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  94  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  94  73 /  10   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58



000
FXUS64 KHGX 010249
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IT WAS A BUSY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE HOUSTON
AREA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM THE HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM PEAKED AT 3 TO 4
INCHES...AND A LOT OF THAT FELL IN A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD RESULTING IN
THE FLOODING AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND INTO THE AREA WITH A SUPPORTIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND STRUCTURE.
DURING THE EVENT...WE WERE ABLE TO VIEW ONE RAINFALL RATE OF 0.56 INCHES
IN JUST 15 MINUTES!

EVERYTHING HAS CALMED DOWN THIS EVENING...AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. FOR TOMORROW...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WERE AROUND THE AREA TODAY. WE MIGHT HAVE ANOTHER
BUSY DAY...AND MORE DETAILS WILL COME WITH THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE. 42
&&

.CLIMATE...
HOUSTON IAH SET A RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE DAY TODAY WITH 2.26 INCHES
(OLD RECORD WAS 1.52 INCHES IN 1948). THIS BROUGHT THE MONTHLY TOTAL
UP TO 11.39 INCHES...WHICH MAKES JUNE 2015 THE 8TH WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD. ALSO...

- JUNE`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH MAY`S 14.17 INCHES MAKES THE TWO MONTH
TOTAL 25.56 INCHES WHICH IS 0.99 INCHES MORE THAN THE RAINFALL TOTAL
FOR ALL OF 2011 OF 24.57 INCHES.

- HOUSTON IAH`S YEARLY TOTAL FOR 2015 SO FAR IS 41.62 INCHES. THIS IS
MORE RAIN ALREADY THAN WE HAD IN A YEAR FOR BOTH 2013 AND 2011. THIS
IS ALSO WITHIN 2 INCHES OF THE YEARLY TOTALS OF 2014...2012...AND 2010.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE DECREASING TSRA
ACROSS KIAH/KHOU. STORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING ALREADY SO MAY NEED
TO AMMEND IN THE NEXT HOUR TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF TSRA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY GO FOR A LOT OF THE TAF SITES. ONLY OTHER ISSUES WILL BE
MVFR CIGS OR FOG THAT DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART
THINK ANY MVFR CIGS WILL BE BRIEF SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. TOMORROW COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA SO HAVE A MENTION
WITH VCTS. SHOULD HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT WILL NOT HAVE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE ABUNDANT AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90F FOR INITIATION. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE TO TRIGGER STORMS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RATHER ACTIVE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN GIVEN THE ADDITION OF OUTFLOWS
AND SUCH FROM THE STORMS MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST (MOST-
LY) AND FROM NORTH TX (TO A LESSER DEGREE). ATTM STILL EXPECTING
THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WE SHOULD SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TOMORROW WITH
THE SEABREEZE/HEATING...BUT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE CONTIN-
UED ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN GULF. AS PER SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE/ENERGY IN THAT REGION AND
POSSIBLY A FEW WAVES COMING IN FROM THE NORTH AS WELL.

MODELS TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS SE TX THURS/FRI AS THE UP-
PER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BRIEFLY EXTEND DOWN FROM THE NW AND PWAT
NUMBERS LOWER A BIT. WHILE NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS PROPOSED
SOLUTION WILL GOT AHEAD AND LEAN THAT WAY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE THE
RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ON
SAT/SUN WILL HELP TO INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN. 41

MARINE...
TODAY IS EVIDENCE THAT ANY SUMMER DAY CAN BE AN ACTIVE MARITIME
WEATHER DAY DUE TO BEING WITHIN THIS RESIDENT WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. THUNDERSTORM TRIGGERING FROM OUTFLOW WIND GUST FRONTS
ORIGINATING FROM A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO COASTLINE...HAVE INITIATED TODAY`S WESTERN GULF STORMS...WIND
GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN OR AROUND THESE
STORM DOWNDRAFTS. STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ONCE AGAIN
IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS AS DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE TRAVEL NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF CENTRAL GULF-CENTERED SURFACE RIDGING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...PICK UP TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER OPEN GULF WATERS/GULF FACING COAST OVERNIGHT. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  92  76  92  76 /  10  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  93  76  93  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  81  88  81 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010249
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IT WAS A BUSY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE HOUSTON
AREA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM THE HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM PEAKED AT 3 TO 4
INCHES...AND A LOT OF THAT FELL IN A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD RESULTING IN
THE FLOODING AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND INTO THE AREA WITH A SUPPORTIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND STRUCTURE.
DURING THE EVENT...WE WERE ABLE TO VIEW ONE RAINFALL RATE OF 0.56 INCHES
IN JUST 15 MINUTES!

EVERYTHING HAS CALMED DOWN THIS EVENING...AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. FOR TOMORROW...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WERE AROUND THE AREA TODAY. WE MIGHT HAVE ANOTHER
BUSY DAY...AND MORE DETAILS WILL COME WITH THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE. 42
&&

.CLIMATE...
HOUSTON IAH SET A RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE DAY TODAY WITH 2.26 INCHES
(OLD RECORD WAS 1.52 INCHES IN 1948). THIS BROUGHT THE MONTHLY TOTAL
UP TO 11.39 INCHES...WHICH MAKES JUNE 2015 THE 8TH WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD. ALSO...

- JUNE`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH MAY`S 14.17 INCHES MAKES THE TWO MONTH
TOTAL 25.56 INCHES WHICH IS 0.99 INCHES MORE THAN THE RAINFALL TOTAL
FOR ALL OF 2011 OF 24.57 INCHES.

- HOUSTON IAH`S YEARLY TOTAL FOR 2015 SO FAR IS 41.62 INCHES. THIS IS
MORE RAIN ALREADY THAN WE HAD IN A YEAR FOR BOTH 2013 AND 2011. THIS
IS ALSO WITHIN 2 INCHES OF THE YEARLY TOTALS OF 2014...2012...AND 2010.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE DECREASING TSRA
ACROSS KIAH/KHOU. STORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING ALREADY SO MAY NEED
TO AMMEND IN THE NEXT HOUR TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF TSRA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY GO FOR A LOT OF THE TAF SITES. ONLY OTHER ISSUES WILL BE
MVFR CIGS OR FOG THAT DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART
THINK ANY MVFR CIGS WILL BE BRIEF SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. TOMORROW COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA SO HAVE A MENTION
WITH VCTS. SHOULD HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT WILL NOT HAVE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE ABUNDANT AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90F FOR INITIATION. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE TO TRIGGER STORMS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RATHER ACTIVE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN GIVEN THE ADDITION OF OUTFLOWS
AND SUCH FROM THE STORMS MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST (MOST-
LY) AND FROM NORTH TX (TO A LESSER DEGREE). ATTM STILL EXPECTING
THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WE SHOULD SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TOMORROW WITH
THE SEABREEZE/HEATING...BUT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE CONTIN-
UED ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN GULF. AS PER SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE/ENERGY IN THAT REGION AND
POSSIBLY A FEW WAVES COMING IN FROM THE NORTH AS WELL.

MODELS TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS SE TX THURS/FRI AS THE UP-
PER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BRIEFLY EXTEND DOWN FROM THE NW AND PWAT
NUMBERS LOWER A BIT. WHILE NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS PROPOSED
SOLUTION WILL GOT AHEAD AND LEAN THAT WAY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE THE
RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ON
SAT/SUN WILL HELP TO INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN. 41

MARINE...
TODAY IS EVIDENCE THAT ANY SUMMER DAY CAN BE AN ACTIVE MARITIME
WEATHER DAY DUE TO BEING WITHIN THIS RESIDENT WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. THUNDERSTORM TRIGGERING FROM OUTFLOW WIND GUST FRONTS
ORIGINATING FROM A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO COASTLINE...HAVE INITIATED TODAY`S WESTERN GULF STORMS...WIND
GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN OR AROUND THESE
STORM DOWNDRAFTS. STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ONCE AGAIN
IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS AS DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE TRAVEL NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF CENTRAL GULF-CENTERED SURFACE RIDGING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...PICK UP TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER OPEN GULF WATERS/GULF FACING COAST OVERNIGHT. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  92  76  92  76 /  10  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  93  76  93  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  81  88  81 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010249
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IT WAS A BUSY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE HOUSTON
AREA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM THE HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM PEAKED AT 3 TO 4
INCHES...AND A LOT OF THAT FELL IN A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD RESULTING IN
THE FLOODING AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND INTO THE AREA WITH A SUPPORTIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND STRUCTURE.
DURING THE EVENT...WE WERE ABLE TO VIEW ONE RAINFALL RATE OF 0.56 INCHES
IN JUST 15 MINUTES!

EVERYTHING HAS CALMED DOWN THIS EVENING...AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. FOR TOMORROW...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WERE AROUND THE AREA TODAY. WE MIGHT HAVE ANOTHER
BUSY DAY...AND MORE DETAILS WILL COME WITH THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE. 42
&&

.CLIMATE...
HOUSTON IAH SET A RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE DAY TODAY WITH 2.26 INCHES
(OLD RECORD WAS 1.52 INCHES IN 1948). THIS BROUGHT THE MONTHLY TOTAL
UP TO 11.39 INCHES...WHICH MAKES JUNE 2015 THE 8TH WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD. ALSO...

- JUNE`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH MAY`S 14.17 INCHES MAKES THE TWO MONTH
TOTAL 25.56 INCHES WHICH IS 0.99 INCHES MORE THAN THE RAINFALL TOTAL
FOR ALL OF 2011 OF 24.57 INCHES.

- HOUSTON IAH`S YEARLY TOTAL FOR 2015 SO FAR IS 41.62 INCHES. THIS IS
MORE RAIN ALREADY THAN WE HAD IN A YEAR FOR BOTH 2013 AND 2011. THIS
IS ALSO WITHIN 2 INCHES OF THE YEARLY TOTALS OF 2014...2012...AND 2010.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE DECREASING TSRA
ACROSS KIAH/KHOU. STORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING ALREADY SO MAY NEED
TO AMMEND IN THE NEXT HOUR TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF TSRA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY GO FOR A LOT OF THE TAF SITES. ONLY OTHER ISSUES WILL BE
MVFR CIGS OR FOG THAT DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART
THINK ANY MVFR CIGS WILL BE BRIEF SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. TOMORROW COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA SO HAVE A MENTION
WITH VCTS. SHOULD HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT WILL NOT HAVE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE ABUNDANT AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90F FOR INITIATION. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE TO TRIGGER STORMS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RATHER ACTIVE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN GIVEN THE ADDITION OF OUTFLOWS
AND SUCH FROM THE STORMS MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST (MOST-
LY) AND FROM NORTH TX (TO A LESSER DEGREE). ATTM STILL EXPECTING
THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WE SHOULD SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TOMORROW WITH
THE SEABREEZE/HEATING...BUT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE CONTIN-
UED ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN GULF. AS PER SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE/ENERGY IN THAT REGION AND
POSSIBLY A FEW WAVES COMING IN FROM THE NORTH AS WELL.

MODELS TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS SE TX THURS/FRI AS THE UP-
PER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BRIEFLY EXTEND DOWN FROM THE NW AND PWAT
NUMBERS LOWER A BIT. WHILE NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS PROPOSED
SOLUTION WILL GOT AHEAD AND LEAN THAT WAY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE THE
RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ON
SAT/SUN WILL HELP TO INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN. 41

MARINE...
TODAY IS EVIDENCE THAT ANY SUMMER DAY CAN BE AN ACTIVE MARITIME
WEATHER DAY DUE TO BEING WITHIN THIS RESIDENT WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. THUNDERSTORM TRIGGERING FROM OUTFLOW WIND GUST FRONTS
ORIGINATING FROM A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO COASTLINE...HAVE INITIATED TODAY`S WESTERN GULF STORMS...WIND
GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN OR AROUND THESE
STORM DOWNDRAFTS. STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ONCE AGAIN
IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS AS DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE TRAVEL NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF CENTRAL GULF-CENTERED SURFACE RIDGING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...PICK UP TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER OPEN GULF WATERS/GULF FACING COAST OVERNIGHT. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  92  76  92  76 /  10  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  93  76  93  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  81  88  81 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010249
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
949 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IT WAS A BUSY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE HOUSTON
AREA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM THE HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM PEAKED AT 3 TO 4
INCHES...AND A LOT OF THAT FELL IN A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD RESULTING IN
THE FLOODING AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
GULF AND INTO THE AREA WITH A SUPPORTIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND STRUCTURE.
DURING THE EVENT...WE WERE ABLE TO VIEW ONE RAINFALL RATE OF 0.56 INCHES
IN JUST 15 MINUTES!

EVERYTHING HAS CALMED DOWN THIS EVENING...AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. FOR TOMORROW...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THAT WERE AROUND THE AREA TODAY. WE MIGHT HAVE ANOTHER
BUSY DAY...AND MORE DETAILS WILL COME WITH THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE. 42
&&

.CLIMATE...
HOUSTON IAH SET A RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE DAY TODAY WITH 2.26 INCHES
(OLD RECORD WAS 1.52 INCHES IN 1948). THIS BROUGHT THE MONTHLY TOTAL
UP TO 11.39 INCHES...WHICH MAKES JUNE 2015 THE 8TH WETTEST JUNE ON
RECORD. ALSO...

- JUNE`S RAINFALL COMBINED WITH MAY`S 14.17 INCHES MAKES THE TWO MONTH
TOTAL 25.56 INCHES WHICH IS 0.99 INCHES MORE THAN THE RAINFALL TOTAL
FOR ALL OF 2011 OF 24.57 INCHES.

- HOUSTON IAH`S YEARLY TOTAL FOR 2015 SO FAR IS 41.62 INCHES. THIS IS
MORE RAIN ALREADY THAN WE HAD IN A YEAR FOR BOTH 2013 AND 2011. THIS
IS ALSO WITHIN 2 INCHES OF THE YEARLY TOTALS OF 2014...2012...AND 2010.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE DECREASING TSRA
ACROSS KIAH/KHOU. STORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING ALREADY SO MAY NEED
TO AMMEND IN THE NEXT HOUR TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF TSRA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY GO FOR A LOT OF THE TAF SITES. ONLY OTHER ISSUES WILL BE
MVFR CIGS OR FOG THAT DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART
THINK ANY MVFR CIGS WILL BE BRIEF SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. TOMORROW COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA SO HAVE A MENTION
WITH VCTS. SHOULD HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT WILL NOT HAVE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE ABUNDANT AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90F FOR INITIATION. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE TO TRIGGER STORMS.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RATHER ACTIVE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN GIVEN THE ADDITION OF OUTFLOWS
AND SUCH FROM THE STORMS MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST (MOST-
LY) AND FROM NORTH TX (TO A LESSER DEGREE). ATTM STILL EXPECTING
THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WE SHOULD SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TOMORROW WITH
THE SEABREEZE/HEATING...BUT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE CONTIN-
UED ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN GULF. AS PER SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE/ENERGY IN THAT REGION AND
POSSIBLY A FEW WAVES COMING IN FROM THE NORTH AS WELL.

MODELS TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS SE TX THURS/FRI AS THE UP-
PER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BRIEFLY EXTEND DOWN FROM THE NW AND PWAT
NUMBERS LOWER A BIT. WHILE NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS PROPOSED
SOLUTION WILL GOT AHEAD AND LEAN THAT WAY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE THE
RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ON
SAT/SUN WILL HELP TO INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN. 41

MARINE...
TODAY IS EVIDENCE THAT ANY SUMMER DAY CAN BE AN ACTIVE MARITIME
WEATHER DAY DUE TO BEING WITHIN THIS RESIDENT WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. THUNDERSTORM TRIGGERING FROM OUTFLOW WIND GUST FRONTS
ORIGINATING FROM A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO COASTLINE...HAVE INITIATED TODAY`S WESTERN GULF STORMS...WIND
GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN OR AROUND THESE
STORM DOWNDRAFTS. STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ONCE AGAIN
IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS AS DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE TRAVEL NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF CENTRAL GULF-CENTERED SURFACE RIDGING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...PICK UP TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER OPEN GULF WATERS/GULF FACING COAST OVERNIGHT. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  92  76  92  76 /  10  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  93  76  93  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  88  81  88  81 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010005
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
705 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE DECREASING TSRA
ACROSS KIAH/KHOU. STORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING ALREADY SO MAY NEED
TO AMMEND IN THE NEXT HOUR TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF TSRA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY GO FOR A LOT OF THE TAF SITES. ONLY OTHER ISSUES WILL BE
MVFR CIGS OR FOG THAT DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART
THINK ANY MVFR CIGS WILL BE BRIEF SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. TOMORROW COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA SO HAVE A MENTION
WITH VCTS. SHOULD HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT WILL NOT HAVE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE ABUNDANT AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90F FOR INITIATION. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE TO TRIGGER STORMS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RATHER ACTIVE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN GIVEN THE ADDITION OF OUTFLOWS
AND SUCH FROM THE STORMS MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST (MOST-
LY) AND FROM NORTH TX (TO A LESSER DEGREE). ATTM STILL EXPECTING
THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WE SHOULD SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TOMORROW WITH
THE SEABREEZE/HEATING...BUT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE CONTIN-
UED ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN GULF. AS PER SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE/ENERGY IN THAT REGION AND
POSSIBLY A FEW WAVES COMING IN FROM THE NORTH AS WELL.

MODELS TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS SE TX THURS/FRI AS THE UP-
PER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BRIEFLY EXTEND DOWN FROM THE NW AND PWAT
NUMBERS LOWER A BIT. WHILE NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS PROPOSED
SOLUTION WILL GOT AHEAD AND LEAN THAT WAY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE THE
RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ON
SAT/SUN WILL HELP TO INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN. 41

MARINE...
TODAY IS EVIDENCE THAT ANY SUMMER DAY CAN BE AN ACTIVE MARITIME
WEATHER DAY DUE TO BEING WITHIN THIS RESIDENT WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. THUNDERSTORM TRIGGERING FROM OUTFLOW WIND GUST FRONTS
ORIGINATING FROM A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO COASTLINE...HAVE INITIATED TODAY`S WESTERN GULF STORMS...WIND
GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN OR AROUND THESE
STORM DOWNDRAFTS. STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ONCE AGAIN
IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS AS DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE TRAVEL NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF CENTRAL GULF-CENTERED SURFACE RIDGING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...PICK UP TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER OPEN GULF WATERS/GULF FACING COAST OVERNIGHT. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  92  76  92  76 /  20  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  93  76 /  30  30  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  88  81  88  81 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 010005
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
705 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE DECREASING TSRA
ACROSS KIAH/KHOU. STORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING ALREADY SO MAY NEED
TO AMMEND IN THE NEXT HOUR TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF TSRA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY GO FOR A LOT OF THE TAF SITES. ONLY OTHER ISSUES WILL BE
MVFR CIGS OR FOG THAT DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART
THINK ANY MVFR CIGS WILL BE BRIEF SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. TOMORROW COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA SO HAVE A MENTION
WITH VCTS. SHOULD HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT WILL NOT HAVE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE ABUNDANT AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90F FOR INITIATION. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE TO TRIGGER STORMS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RATHER ACTIVE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN GIVEN THE ADDITION OF OUTFLOWS
AND SUCH FROM THE STORMS MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST (MOST-
LY) AND FROM NORTH TX (TO A LESSER DEGREE). ATTM STILL EXPECTING
THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WE SHOULD SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TOMORROW WITH
THE SEABREEZE/HEATING...BUT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE CONTIN-
UED ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN GULF. AS PER SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE/ENERGY IN THAT REGION AND
POSSIBLY A FEW WAVES COMING IN FROM THE NORTH AS WELL.

MODELS TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS SE TX THURS/FRI AS THE UP-
PER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BRIEFLY EXTEND DOWN FROM THE NW AND PWAT
NUMBERS LOWER A BIT. WHILE NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS PROPOSED
SOLUTION WILL GOT AHEAD AND LEAN THAT WAY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE THE
RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ON
SAT/SUN WILL HELP TO INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN. 41

MARINE...
TODAY IS EVIDENCE THAT ANY SUMMER DAY CAN BE AN ACTIVE MARITIME
WEATHER DAY DUE TO BEING WITHIN THIS RESIDENT WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. THUNDERSTORM TRIGGERING FROM OUTFLOW WIND GUST FRONTS
ORIGINATING FROM A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO COASTLINE...HAVE INITIATED TODAY`S WESTERN GULF STORMS...WIND
GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN OR AROUND THESE
STORM DOWNDRAFTS. STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ONCE AGAIN
IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS AS DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE TRAVEL NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF CENTRAL GULF-CENTERED SURFACE RIDGING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...PICK UP TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER OPEN GULF WATERS/GULF FACING COAST OVERNIGHT. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  92  76  92  76 /  20  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  93  76 /  30  30  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  88  81  88  81 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39



000
FXUS64 KHGX 010005
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
705 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE DECREASING TSRA
ACROSS KIAH/KHOU. STORMS SEEM TO BE WEAKENING ALREADY SO MAY NEED
TO AMMEND IN THE NEXT HOUR TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF TSRA. THIS WILL
PROBABLY GO FOR A LOT OF THE TAF SITES. ONLY OTHER ISSUES WILL BE
MVFR CIGS OR FOG THAT DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART
THINK ANY MVFR CIGS WILL BE BRIEF SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS
TIME. TOMORROW COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA SO HAVE A MENTION
WITH VCTS. SHOULD HAVE SIMILAR CONDITIONS BUT WILL NOT HAVE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE ABUNDANT AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90F FOR INITIATION. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LEFT OVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE TO TRIGGER STORMS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RATHER ACTIVE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN GIVEN THE ADDITION OF OUTFLOWS
AND SUCH FROM THE STORMS MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST (MOST-
LY) AND FROM NORTH TX (TO A LESSER DEGREE). ATTM STILL EXPECTING
THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WE SHOULD SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TOMORROW WITH
THE SEABREEZE/HEATING...BUT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE CONTIN-
UED ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN GULF. AS PER SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE/ENERGY IN THAT REGION AND
POSSIBLY A FEW WAVES COMING IN FROM THE NORTH AS WELL.

MODELS TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS SE TX THURS/FRI AS THE UP-
PER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BRIEFLY EXTEND DOWN FROM THE NW AND PWAT
NUMBERS LOWER A BIT. WHILE NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS PROPOSED
SOLUTION WILL GOT AHEAD AND LEAN THAT WAY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE THE
RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ON
SAT/SUN WILL HELP TO INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN. 41

MARINE...
TODAY IS EVIDENCE THAT ANY SUMMER DAY CAN BE AN ACTIVE MARITIME
WEATHER DAY DUE TO BEING WITHIN THIS RESIDENT WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. THUNDERSTORM TRIGGERING FROM OUTFLOW WIND GUST FRONTS
ORIGINATING FROM A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO COASTLINE...HAVE INITIATED TODAY`S WESTERN GULF STORMS...WIND
GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN OR AROUND THESE
STORM DOWNDRAFTS. STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ONCE AGAIN
IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS AS DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE TRAVEL NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF CENTRAL GULF-CENTERED SURFACE RIDGING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...PICK UP TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER OPEN GULF WATERS/GULF FACING COAST OVERNIGHT. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  92  76  92  76 /  20  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  93  76 /  30  30  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  88  81  88  81 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KSJT 010003 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
703 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along and south of Interstate 20 through the evening
hours. Low POPs were added for the rest of the evening. No other
changes needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF BRADY TO
JUNCTION TO SONORA AND OZONA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND WIND GUSTS EVEN STRONGER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL ALSO FORM NEAR KABI THRU THIS
EVENING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LIGHTNING. EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. FOR THIS REASON...INSERTED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
will be unfavorable for any convective development. Going with a dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday across the area. Lows tonight will be
upper 60s to mid 70s with highs Wednesday mainly in the 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue for several days.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Inter-mountain West,
with a trough developing across the eastern CONUS. In this type of
upper-level pattern, a northwest flow will develop across the
region. Closer to the surface, southeast to south surface will allow
dewpoints in the 60s or better to persist through the period. Thus,
expect the muggy conditions to continue.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a vorticity maximum diving into
the eastern trough is forecast to send a weak cold front southward
towards West Central Texas. This front may approach the Red River
Valley on Friday as it stalls/washes out. Although the front isn`t
expected to progress into our forecast area, it may be close enough
to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to locations north of
a Sterling City to Baird line during the day Friday. The previous
forecast package had slight chance POPs in that area and this looks
good, so no changes were made. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Early next week, the western ridge will build east with the ridge
axis stretching from the West Coast, through Oklahoma, to the
southeastern states. Rising upper-level heights will lead to
increasing temperatures, and this was reflected in the forecast
with a slight uptick in afternoon highs. However, given the moist
soil conditions from rainfall over the last several days/weeks,
temperatures are not expected to reach the century mark, as the
soil moisture helps negate that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  94  72  93  75 /  10   0  10   5  10
San Angelo  70  92  70  92  72 /  20   5   5   5   5
Junction  70  91  69  90  71 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 010003 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
703 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along and south of Interstate 20 through the evening
hours. Low POPs were added for the rest of the evening. No other
changes needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF BRADY TO
JUNCTION TO SONORA AND OZONA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND WIND GUSTS EVEN STRONGER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL ALSO FORM NEAR KABI THRU THIS
EVENING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LIGHTNING. EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. FOR THIS REASON...INSERTED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
will be unfavorable for any convective development. Going with a dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday across the area. Lows tonight will be
upper 60s to mid 70s with highs Wednesday mainly in the 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue for several days.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Inter-mountain West,
with a trough developing across the eastern CONUS. In this type of
upper-level pattern, a northwest flow will develop across the
region. Closer to the surface, southeast to south surface will allow
dewpoints in the 60s or better to persist through the period. Thus,
expect the muggy conditions to continue.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a vorticity maximum diving into
the eastern trough is forecast to send a weak cold front southward
towards West Central Texas. This front may approach the Red River
Valley on Friday as it stalls/washes out. Although the front isn`t
expected to progress into our forecast area, it may be close enough
to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to locations north of
a Sterling City to Baird line during the day Friday. The previous
forecast package had slight chance POPs in that area and this looks
good, so no changes were made. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Early next week, the western ridge will build east with the ridge
axis stretching from the West Coast, through Oklahoma, to the
southeastern states. Rising upper-level heights will lead to
increasing temperatures, and this was reflected in the forecast
with a slight uptick in afternoon highs. However, given the moist
soil conditions from rainfall over the last several days/weeks,
temperatures are not expected to reach the century mark, as the
soil moisture helps negate that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  94  72  93  75 /  10   0  10   5  10
San Angelo  70  92  70  92  72 /  20   5   5   5   5
Junction  70  91  69  90  71 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 010003 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
703 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along and south of Interstate 20 through the evening
hours. Low POPs were added for the rest of the evening. No other
changes needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF BRADY TO
JUNCTION TO SONORA AND OZONA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND WIND GUSTS EVEN STRONGER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL ALSO FORM NEAR KABI THRU THIS
EVENING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LIGHTNING. EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. FOR THIS REASON...INSERTED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
will be unfavorable for any convective development. Going with a dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday across the area. Lows tonight will be
upper 60s to mid 70s with highs Wednesday mainly in the 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue for several days.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Inter-mountain West,
with a trough developing across the eastern CONUS. In this type of
upper-level pattern, a northwest flow will develop across the
region. Closer to the surface, southeast to south surface will allow
dewpoints in the 60s or better to persist through the period. Thus,
expect the muggy conditions to continue.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a vorticity maximum diving into
the eastern trough is forecast to send a weak cold front southward
towards West Central Texas. This front may approach the Red River
Valley on Friday as it stalls/washes out. Although the front isn`t
expected to progress into our forecast area, it may be close enough
to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to locations north of
a Sterling City to Baird line during the day Friday. The previous
forecast package had slight chance POPs in that area and this looks
good, so no changes were made. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Early next week, the western ridge will build east with the ridge
axis stretching from the West Coast, through Oklahoma, to the
southeastern states. Rising upper-level heights will lead to
increasing temperatures, and this was reflected in the forecast
with a slight uptick in afternoon highs. However, given the moist
soil conditions from rainfall over the last several days/weeks,
temperatures are not expected to reach the century mark, as the
soil moisture helps negate that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  94  72  93  75 /  10   0  10   5  10
San Angelo  70  92  70  92  72 /  20   5   5   5   5
Junction  70  91  69  90  71 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 010003 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
703 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along and south of Interstate 20 through the evening
hours. Low POPs were added for the rest of the evening. No other
changes needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF BRADY TO
JUNCTION TO SONORA AND OZONA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND WIND GUSTS EVEN STRONGER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL ALSO FORM NEAR KABI THRU THIS
EVENING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LIGHTNING. EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. FOR THIS REASON...INSERTED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
will be unfavorable for any convective development. Going with a dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday across the area. Lows tonight will be
upper 60s to mid 70s with highs Wednesday mainly in the 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue for several days.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Inter-mountain West,
with a trough developing across the eastern CONUS. In this type of
upper-level pattern, a northwest flow will develop across the
region. Closer to the surface, southeast to south surface will allow
dewpoints in the 60s or better to persist through the period. Thus,
expect the muggy conditions to continue.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a vorticity maximum diving into
the eastern trough is forecast to send a weak cold front southward
towards West Central Texas. This front may approach the Red River
Valley on Friday as it stalls/washes out. Although the front isn`t
expected to progress into our forecast area, it may be close enough
to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to locations north of
a Sterling City to Baird line during the day Friday. The previous
forecast package had slight chance POPs in that area and this looks
good, so no changes were made. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Early next week, the western ridge will build east with the ridge
axis stretching from the West Coast, through Oklahoma, to the
southeastern states. Rising upper-level heights will lead to
increasing temperatures, and this was reflected in the forecast
with a slight uptick in afternoon highs. However, given the moist
soil conditions from rainfall over the last several days/weeks,
temperatures are not expected to reach the century mark, as the
soil moisture helps negate that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  94  72  93  75 /  10   0  10   5  10
San Angelo  70  92  70  92  72 /  20   5   5   5   5
Junction  70  91  69  90  71 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 010003 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
703 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along and south of Interstate 20 through the evening
hours. Low POPs were added for the rest of the evening. No other
changes needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF BRADY TO
JUNCTION TO SONORA AND OZONA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND WIND GUSTS EVEN STRONGER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL ALSO FORM NEAR KABI THRU THIS
EVENING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LIGHTNING. EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. FOR THIS REASON...INSERTED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
will be unfavorable for any convective development. Going with a dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday across the area. Lows tonight will be
upper 60s to mid 70s with highs Wednesday mainly in the 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue for several days.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Inter-mountain West,
with a trough developing across the eastern CONUS. In this type of
upper-level pattern, a northwest flow will develop across the
region. Closer to the surface, southeast to south surface will allow
dewpoints in the 60s or better to persist through the period. Thus,
expect the muggy conditions to continue.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a vorticity maximum diving into
the eastern trough is forecast to send a weak cold front southward
towards West Central Texas. This front may approach the Red River
Valley on Friday as it stalls/washes out. Although the front isn`t
expected to progress into our forecast area, it may be close enough
to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to locations north of
a Sterling City to Baird line during the day Friday. The previous
forecast package had slight chance POPs in that area and this looks
good, so no changes were made. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Early next week, the western ridge will build east with the ridge
axis stretching from the West Coast, through Oklahoma, to the
southeastern states. Rising upper-level heights will lead to
increasing temperatures, and this was reflected in the forecast
with a slight uptick in afternoon highs. However, given the moist
soil conditions from rainfall over the last several days/weeks,
temperatures are not expected to reach the century mark, as the
soil moisture helps negate that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  94  72  93  75 /  10   0  10   5  10
San Angelo  70  92  70  92  72 /  20   5   5   5   5
Junction  70  91  69  90  71 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 010003 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
703 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.UPDATE...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along and south of Interstate 20 through the evening
hours. Low POPs were added for the rest of the evening. No other
changes needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF BRADY TO
JUNCTION TO SONORA AND OZONA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND WIND GUSTS EVEN STRONGER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL ALSO FORM NEAR KABI THRU THIS
EVENING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LIGHTNING. EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. FOR THIS REASON...INSERTED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
will be unfavorable for any convective development. Going with a dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday across the area. Lows tonight will be
upper 60s to mid 70s with highs Wednesday mainly in the 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue for several days.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Inter-mountain West,
with a trough developing across the eastern CONUS. In this type of
upper-level pattern, a northwest flow will develop across the
region. Closer to the surface, southeast to south surface will allow
dewpoints in the 60s or better to persist through the period. Thus,
expect the muggy conditions to continue.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a vorticity maximum diving into
the eastern trough is forecast to send a weak cold front southward
towards West Central Texas. This front may approach the Red River
Valley on Friday as it stalls/washes out. Although the front isn`t
expected to progress into our forecast area, it may be close enough
to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to locations north of
a Sterling City to Baird line during the day Friday. The previous
forecast package had slight chance POPs in that area and this looks
good, so no changes were made. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Early next week, the western ridge will build east with the ridge
axis stretching from the West Coast, through Oklahoma, to the
southeastern states. Rising upper-level heights will lead to
increasing temperatures, and this was reflected in the forecast
with a slight uptick in afternoon highs. However, given the moist
soil conditions from rainfall over the last several days/weeks,
temperatures are not expected to reach the century mark, as the
soil moisture helps negate that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  94  72  93  75 /  10   0  10   5  10
San Angelo  70  92  70  92  72 /  20   5   5   5   5
Junction  70  91  69  90  71 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KCRP 010000 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT MAY SEE
SOMETHING LIGHT TOWARD VCT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A MIXTURE OF
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBYS FROM ALI-BEA-
VCT...ALTHOUGH DID HIT HARDER TOWARD ALI WITH IFR VSBY DUE TO
EARLIER HEAVIER RAINS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK
BRIEFLY FOR THE INLAND AREAS...INCLUDING LRD...THROUGH MID
MORNING. A RETURN OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH HEATING
WEDNESDAY...TRANSITIONING FROM VCSH TO VCTS BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED N AND W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR THE FAR W CWA. A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDVLP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD WED
MORNING AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE/PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO S TX. THE GFS PUSHES THIS SWATH OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD VERY RAPIDLY WITH PWATS DROPPING TO 1.5 INCHES WED
AFTERNOON. THINK THE GFS IS DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE A TAD TOO MUCH
BUT THAT SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR. THUS...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY`S EVENT. KEPT 20-40 POPS FOR WED.
MODELS SHOW DRYING TO CONTINUE WED NIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP...HOWEVER...KEPT THE 20 POP FOR THE COAST AND REMOVED
MENTION OF TSRA. AM EXPECTING THAT A FEW STREAMER SHRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

MARINE...BUMPED UP WINDS FOR THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH WEAK TO MODERATE LEVELS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ISOL/SCT
SHRA/TSRA`S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CONTINUING
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...STILL LOOKS DRIER ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE
MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH DAYS.  FOR THE WEEKEND DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND A BIT OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW PCPN CVRG TO INCRS
AGAIN...ESPLY ON SUNDAY WHERE WE`LL CONTINUE 30-40 POPS.  LESS MSTR
THEN LOOKS TO BE AROUND TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SO POPS WILL BE
TAPERED BACK.  THE TREND WILL BE FOR SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS THRU THE
PD BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  92  77  90  77  /  20  30  20  20  10
VICTORIA          76  92  75  90  75  /  10  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            76  97  75  96  75  /  30  20  10  20  10
ALICE             75  95  75  92  76  /  10  40  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  88  80  /  30  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           75  95  75  94  74  /  20  20  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  77  92  77  /  10  30  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  80  87  79  /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 010000 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT MAY SEE
SOMETHING LIGHT TOWARD VCT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A MIXTURE OF
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBYS FROM ALI-BEA-
VCT...ALTHOUGH DID HIT HARDER TOWARD ALI WITH IFR VSBY DUE TO
EARLIER HEAVIER RAINS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK
BRIEFLY FOR THE INLAND AREAS...INCLUDING LRD...THROUGH MID
MORNING. A RETURN OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH HEATING
WEDNESDAY...TRANSITIONING FROM VCSH TO VCTS BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED N AND W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR THE FAR W CWA. A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDVLP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD WED
MORNING AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE/PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO S TX. THE GFS PUSHES THIS SWATH OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD VERY RAPIDLY WITH PWATS DROPPING TO 1.5 INCHES WED
AFTERNOON. THINK THE GFS IS DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE A TAD TOO MUCH
BUT THAT SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR. THUS...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY`S EVENT. KEPT 20-40 POPS FOR WED.
MODELS SHOW DRYING TO CONTINUE WED NIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP...HOWEVER...KEPT THE 20 POP FOR THE COAST AND REMOVED
MENTION OF TSRA. AM EXPECTING THAT A FEW STREAMER SHRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

MARINE...BUMPED UP WINDS FOR THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH WEAK TO MODERATE LEVELS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ISOL/SCT
SHRA/TSRA`S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CONTINUING
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...STILL LOOKS DRIER ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE
MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH DAYS.  FOR THE WEEKEND DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND A BIT OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW PCPN CVRG TO INCRS
AGAIN...ESPLY ON SUNDAY WHERE WE`LL CONTINUE 30-40 POPS.  LESS MSTR
THEN LOOKS TO BE AROUND TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SO POPS WILL BE
TAPERED BACK.  THE TREND WILL BE FOR SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS THRU THE
PD BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  92  77  90  77  /  20  30  20  20  10
VICTORIA          76  92  75  90  75  /  10  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            76  97  75  96  75  /  30  20  10  20  10
ALICE             75  95  75  92  76  /  10  40  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  88  80  /  30  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           75  95  75  94  74  /  20  20  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  77  92  77  /  10  30  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  80  87  79  /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 010000 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT MAY SEE
SOMETHING LIGHT TOWARD VCT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A MIXTURE OF
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBYS FROM ALI-BEA-
VCT...ALTHOUGH DID HIT HARDER TOWARD ALI WITH IFR VSBY DUE TO
EARLIER HEAVIER RAINS. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK
BRIEFLY FOR THE INLAND AREAS...INCLUDING LRD...THROUGH MID
MORNING. A RETURN OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH HEATING
WEDNESDAY...TRANSITIONING FROM VCSH TO VCTS BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS
NEAR 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED N AND W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR THE FAR W CWA. A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDVLP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD WED
MORNING AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE/PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO S TX. THE GFS PUSHES THIS SWATH OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD VERY RAPIDLY WITH PWATS DROPPING TO 1.5 INCHES WED
AFTERNOON. THINK THE GFS IS DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE A TAD TOO MUCH
BUT THAT SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR. THUS...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY`S EVENT. KEPT 20-40 POPS FOR WED.
MODELS SHOW DRYING TO CONTINUE WED NIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP...HOWEVER...KEPT THE 20 POP FOR THE COAST AND REMOVED
MENTION OF TSRA. AM EXPECTING THAT A FEW STREAMER SHRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

MARINE...BUMPED UP WINDS FOR THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH WEAK TO MODERATE LEVELS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ISOL/SCT
SHRA/TSRA`S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CONTINUING
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...STILL LOOKS DRIER ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE
MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH DAYS.  FOR THE WEEKEND DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND A BIT OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW PCPN CVRG TO INCRS
AGAIN...ESPLY ON SUNDAY WHERE WE`LL CONTINUE 30-40 POPS.  LESS MSTR
THEN LOOKS TO BE AROUND TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SO POPS WILL BE
TAPERED BACK.  THE TREND WILL BE FOR SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS THRU THE
PD BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  92  77  90  77  /  20  30  20  20  10
VICTORIA          76  92  75  90  75  /  10  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            76  97  75  96  75  /  30  20  10  20  10
ALICE             75  95  75  92  76  /  10  40  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  88  80  /  30  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           75  95  75  94  74  /  20  20  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  77  92  77  /  10  30  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  80  87  79  /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KEWX 302358
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  92  75  93  74 /  40  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  40  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  40  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 302358
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  92  75  93  74 /  40  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  40  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  40  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 302358
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  92  75  93  74 /  40  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  40  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  40  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 302358
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  92  75  93  74 /  40  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  40  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  40  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 302358
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  92  75  93  74 /  40  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  40  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  40  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 302358
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM GENERATION THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PROGRESSED NORTH OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY AND OUT WEST
IS EXITING VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 7PM. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS LIKELY BUT THEN A PRETTY QUIET
NIGHT IS IN STORE.

OPTED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z AND MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEXT 6 HOURS POP/QPF/WX GRIDS. ALSO HOURLY
TEMPS WERE NOT INDICATIVE OF THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT FROM
THE AFTERNOON OUTFLOWS AND STORMS SO LOWERED THOSE AS WELL TO
REFLECT REALITY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  92  75  93  74 /  40  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  91  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  40  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  40  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KBRO 302350 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
650 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO THE CWA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/55/59




000
FXUS64 KBRO 302350 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
650 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO THE CWA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/55/59




000
FXUS64 KBRO 302350 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
650 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO THE CWA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/55/59




000
FXUS64 KBRO 302350 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
650 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO THE CWA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/55/59




000
FXUS64 KBRO 302350 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
650 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT KT65. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINUES TO
BRING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO
INTO THE CWA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/55/59



000
FXUS64 KSJT 302339
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
639 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF BRADY TO
JUNCTION TO SONORA AND OZONA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND WIND GUSTS EVEN STRONGER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL ALSO FORM NEAR KABI THRU THIS
EVENING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LIGHTNING. EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. FOR THIS REASON...INSERTED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
will be unfavorable for any convective development. Going with a dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday across the area. Lows tonight will be
upper 60s to mid 70s with highs Wednesday mainly in the 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue for several days.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Inter-mountain West,
with a trough developing across the eastern CONUS. In this type of
upper-level pattern, a northwest flow will develop across the
region. Closer to the surface, southeast to south surface will allow
dewpoints in the 60s or better to persist through the period. Thus,
expect the muggy conditions to continue.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a vorticity maximum diving into
the eastern trough is forecast to send a weak cold front southward
towards West Central Texas. This front may approach the Red River
Valley on Friday as it stalls/washes out. Although the front isn`t
expected to progress into our forecast area, it may be close enough
to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to locations north of
a Sterling City to Baird line during the day Friday. The previous
forecast package had slight chance POPs in that area and this looks
good, so no changes were made. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Early next week, the western ridge will build east with the ridge
axis stretching from the West Coast, through Oklahoma, to the
southeastern states. Rising upper-level heights will lead to
increasing temperatures, and this was reflected in the forecast
with a slight uptick in afternoon highs. However, given the moist
soil conditions from rainfall over the last several days/weeks,
temperatures are not expected to reach the century mark, as the
soil moisture helps negate that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  94  72  93  75 /  10   0  10   5  10
San Angelo  70  92  70  92  72 /  20   5   5   5   5
Junction  70  91  69  90  71 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSJT 302339
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
639 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF BRADY TO
JUNCTION TO SONORA AND OZONA. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND WIND GUSTS EVEN STRONGER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER STORMS WILL ALSO FORM NEAR KABI THRU THIS
EVENING. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LIGHTNING. EXPECT VFR SHORTLY AFTER 03Z. FOR THIS REASON...INSERTED
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
will be unfavorable for any convective development. Going with a dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday across the area. Lows tonight will be
upper 60s to mid 70s with highs Wednesday mainly in the 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue for several days.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Inter-mountain West,
with a trough developing across the eastern CONUS. In this type of
upper-level pattern, a northwest flow will develop across the
region. Closer to the surface, southeast to south surface will allow
dewpoints in the 60s or better to persist through the period. Thus,
expect the muggy conditions to continue.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a vorticity maximum diving into
the eastern trough is forecast to send a weak cold front southward
towards West Central Texas. This front may approach the Red River
Valley on Friday as it stalls/washes out. Although the front isn`t
expected to progress into our forecast area, it may be close enough
to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to locations north of
a Sterling City to Baird line during the day Friday. The previous
forecast package had slight chance POPs in that area and this looks
good, so no changes were made. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Early next week, the western ridge will build east with the ridge
axis stretching from the West Coast, through Oklahoma, to the
southeastern states. Rising upper-level heights will lead to
increasing temperatures, and this was reflected in the forecast
with a slight uptick in afternoon highs. However, given the moist
soil conditions from rainfall over the last several days/weeks,
temperatures are not expected to reach the century mark, as the
soil moisture helps negate that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  94  72  93  75 /  10   0  10   5  10
San Angelo  70  92  70  92  72 /  20   5   5   5   5
Junction  70  91  69  90  71 /  30   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/99






000
FXUS64 KLUB 302338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVERNIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
RIDGE. GRIDDED DATA HINTS AT SOME STRATUS FORMING AROUND DAWN BUT
THIS NOT SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN VFR
CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE LOW PROBABILITY ATTM SO ONLY INCLUDED A
HINT OF CLOUDS IN KLBB TAF. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KT WILL KEEP
WINDS MIXED ON CAPROCK SO FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS EQUALLY LOW. GUSTY
SW WINDS EXPECTED WITH ONSET OF MIXING AFTER DAYBREAK WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MCS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING LEFT THE ROLLING PLAINS FAIRLY STABLE WHILE THE SOUTH
PLAINS SEES A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. ALOFT...THE JET STREAM
THAT HELPED INITIATE STORMS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST A BIT AS WELL.
THIS HAS LIKELY RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WHERE CU ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TODAY...THEY
WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVERHEAD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF ANY FRONTS
WILL HAVE AID IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER THIS WEEK. ANY FRONTS DO LOOK TO STALL OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE BUT ANY MOVEMENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN
IN MODELS COULD BOOST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS FORMING EVERY EVENING WILL FURTHER INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH AS ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL MIGRATE BACK EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SQUASH
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE...IT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO MONSOONAL LIKE CONVECTION FROM
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  66  89 /   0  10  20  30
TULIA         63  93  69  89 /   0   0  20  30
PLAINVIEW     64  91  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     66  93  67  91 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       66  94  68  92 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   64  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  92 /   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     70  98  73  94 /   0   0  10  20
SPUR          68  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     69  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/01/24



000
FXUS64 KLUB 302338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVERNIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
RIDGE. GRIDDED DATA HINTS AT SOME STRATUS FORMING AROUND DAWN BUT
THIS NOT SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN VFR
CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE LOW PROBABILITY ATTM SO ONLY INCLUDED A
HINT OF CLOUDS IN KLBB TAF. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KT WILL KEEP
WINDS MIXED ON CAPROCK SO FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS EQUALLY LOW. GUSTY
SW WINDS EXPECTED WITH ONSET OF MIXING AFTER DAYBREAK WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MCS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING LEFT THE ROLLING PLAINS FAIRLY STABLE WHILE THE SOUTH
PLAINS SEES A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. ALOFT...THE JET STREAM
THAT HELPED INITIATE STORMS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST A BIT AS WELL.
THIS HAS LIKELY RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WHERE CU ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TODAY...THEY
WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVERHEAD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF ANY FRONTS
WILL HAVE AID IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER THIS WEEK. ANY FRONTS DO LOOK TO STALL OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE BUT ANY MOVEMENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN
IN MODELS COULD BOOST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS FORMING EVERY EVENING WILL FURTHER INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH AS ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL MIGRATE BACK EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SQUASH
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE...IT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO MONSOONAL LIKE CONVECTION FROM
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  66  89 /   0  10  20  30
TULIA         63  93  69  89 /   0   0  20  30
PLAINVIEW     64  91  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     66  93  67  91 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       66  94  68  92 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   64  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  92 /   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     70  98  73  94 /   0   0  10  20
SPUR          68  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     69  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/01/24



000
FXUS64 KLUB 302338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVERNIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
RIDGE. GRIDDED DATA HINTS AT SOME STRATUS FORMING AROUND DAWN BUT
THIS NOT SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN VFR
CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE LOW PROBABILITY ATTM SO ONLY INCLUDED A
HINT OF CLOUDS IN KLBB TAF. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KT WILL KEEP
WINDS MIXED ON CAPROCK SO FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS EQUALLY LOW. GUSTY
SW WINDS EXPECTED WITH ONSET OF MIXING AFTER DAYBREAK WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MCS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING LEFT THE ROLLING PLAINS FAIRLY STABLE WHILE THE SOUTH
PLAINS SEES A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. ALOFT...THE JET STREAM
THAT HELPED INITIATE STORMS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST A BIT AS WELL.
THIS HAS LIKELY RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WHERE CU ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TODAY...THEY
WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVERHEAD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF ANY FRONTS
WILL HAVE AID IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER THIS WEEK. ANY FRONTS DO LOOK TO STALL OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE BUT ANY MOVEMENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN
IN MODELS COULD BOOST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS FORMING EVERY EVENING WILL FURTHER INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH AS ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL MIGRATE BACK EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SQUASH
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE...IT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO MONSOONAL LIKE CONVECTION FROM
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  66  89 /   0  10  20  30
TULIA         63  93  69  89 /   0   0  20  30
PLAINVIEW     64  91  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     66  93  67  91 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       66  94  68  92 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   64  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  92 /   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     70  98  73  94 /   0   0  10  20
SPUR          68  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     69  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/01/24



000
FXUS64 KLUB 302338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVERNIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
RIDGE. GRIDDED DATA HINTS AT SOME STRATUS FORMING AROUND DAWN BUT
THIS NOT SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN VFR
CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE LOW PROBABILITY ATTM SO ONLY INCLUDED A
HINT OF CLOUDS IN KLBB TAF. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KT WILL KEEP
WINDS MIXED ON CAPROCK SO FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS EQUALLY LOW. GUSTY
SW WINDS EXPECTED WITH ONSET OF MIXING AFTER DAYBREAK WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MCS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING LEFT THE ROLLING PLAINS FAIRLY STABLE WHILE THE SOUTH
PLAINS SEES A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. ALOFT...THE JET STREAM
THAT HELPED INITIATE STORMS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST A BIT AS WELL.
THIS HAS LIKELY RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WHERE CU ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TODAY...THEY
WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVERHEAD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF ANY FRONTS
WILL HAVE AID IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER THIS WEEK. ANY FRONTS DO LOOK TO STALL OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE BUT ANY MOVEMENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN
IN MODELS COULD BOOST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS FORMING EVERY EVENING WILL FURTHER INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH AS ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL MIGRATE BACK EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SQUASH
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE...IT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO MONSOONAL LIKE CONVECTION FROM
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  66  89 /   0  10  20  30
TULIA         63  93  69  89 /   0   0  20  30
PLAINVIEW     64  91  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     66  93  67  91 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       66  94  68  92 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   64  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  92 /   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     70  98  73  94 /   0   0  10  20
SPUR          68  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     69  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/01/24



000
FXUS64 KLUB 302338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVERNIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
RIDGE. GRIDDED DATA HINTS AT SOME STRATUS FORMING AROUND DAWN BUT
THIS NOT SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN VFR
CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE LOW PROBABILITY ATTM SO ONLY INCLUDED A
HINT OF CLOUDS IN KLBB TAF. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 30 KT WILL KEEP
WINDS MIXED ON CAPROCK SO FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS EQUALLY LOW. GUSTY
SW WINDS EXPECTED WITH ONSET OF MIXING AFTER DAYBREAK WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MCS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING LEFT THE ROLLING PLAINS FAIRLY STABLE WHILE THE SOUTH
PLAINS SEES A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. ALOFT...THE JET STREAM
THAT HELPED INITIATE STORMS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST A BIT AS WELL.
THIS HAS LIKELY RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WHERE CU ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TODAY...THEY
WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVERHEAD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF ANY FRONTS
WILL HAVE AID IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER THIS WEEK. ANY FRONTS DO LOOK TO STALL OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE BUT ANY MOVEMENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN
IN MODELS COULD BOOST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS FORMING EVERY EVENING WILL FURTHER INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH AS ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL MIGRATE BACK EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SQUASH
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE...IT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO MONSOONAL LIKE CONVECTION FROM
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  66  89 /   0  10  20  30
TULIA         63  93  69  89 /   0   0  20  30
PLAINVIEW     64  91  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     66  93  67  91 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       66  94  68  92 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   64  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  92 /   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     70  98  73  94 /   0   0  10  20
SPUR          68  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     69  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/01/24



000
FXUS64 KFWD 302321 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...VCTS/VCSH THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS ALONG THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING SEA BREEZE AND OTHER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BEING PRODUCING BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR KACT AND
NOW A FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE DFW METROPLEX.
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

FOR KACT...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE IS TRACKED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 0030-0100Z. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WILL
KEEP A VCTS MENTION THROUGH 02Z AND THEN EXPECT THE RAIN
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AFTER 02Z...VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...BUT
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE DFW METROPLEX AIRPORTS...WILL MENTION VCSH THROUGH 02Z AT
KDAL...KDFW...AND KAFW. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY VCTS AT KFTW AND KGKY
WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR
PREVAILING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10
KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 14-17 KTS
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
TAF ISSUANCES MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS FOR TOMORROW.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A COL ALOFT...THE
STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN OUR CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALLOWED
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO SURVIVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST A
MILE OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. POPS GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY WEAK FLOW (THE 12Z FWD RAOB FOUND WINDS
WERE UNDER 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE) COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE LITTLE INHIBITION...A LACK OF
ANY FOCUS FOR LIFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES...ACTIVITY MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...STILL PRIMARILY IMPACTING OKLAHOMA...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            74  94  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          74  93  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  94  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  94  73 /   5   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58



000
FXUS64 KFWD 302321 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...VCTS/VCSH THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS ALONG THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING SEA BREEZE AND OTHER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BEING PRODUCING BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR KACT AND
NOW A FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE DFW METROPLEX.
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

FOR KACT...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE IS TRACKED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 0030-0100Z. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WILL
KEEP A VCTS MENTION THROUGH 02Z AND THEN EXPECT THE RAIN
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AFTER 02Z...VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...BUT
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE DFW METROPLEX AIRPORTS...WILL MENTION VCSH THROUGH 02Z AT
KDAL...KDFW...AND KAFW. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY VCTS AT KFTW AND KGKY
WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR
PREVAILING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10
KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 14-17 KTS
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
TAF ISSUANCES MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS FOR TOMORROW.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A COL ALOFT...THE
STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN OUR CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALLOWED
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO SURVIVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST A
MILE OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. POPS GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY WEAK FLOW (THE 12Z FWD RAOB FOUND WINDS
WERE UNDER 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE) COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE LITTLE INHIBITION...A LACK OF
ANY FOCUS FOR LIFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES...ACTIVITY MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...STILL PRIMARILY IMPACTING OKLAHOMA...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            74  94  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          74  93  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  94  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  94  73 /   5   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58




000
FXUS64 KFWD 302321 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...VCTS/VCSH THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS ALONG THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING SEA BREEZE AND OTHER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BEING PRODUCING BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR KACT AND
NOW A FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE DFW METROPLEX.
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

FOR KACT...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE IS TRACKED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 0030-0100Z. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WILL
KEEP A VCTS MENTION THROUGH 02Z AND THEN EXPECT THE RAIN
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AFTER 02Z...VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...BUT
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE DFW METROPLEX AIRPORTS...WILL MENTION VCSH THROUGH 02Z AT
KDAL...KDFW...AND KAFW. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY VCTS AT KFTW AND KGKY
WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR
PREVAILING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10
KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 14-17 KTS
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
TAF ISSUANCES MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS FOR TOMORROW.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A COL ALOFT...THE
STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN OUR CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALLOWED
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO SURVIVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST A
MILE OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. POPS GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY WEAK FLOW (THE 12Z FWD RAOB FOUND WINDS
WERE UNDER 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE) COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE LITTLE INHIBITION...A LACK OF
ANY FOCUS FOR LIFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES...ACTIVITY MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...STILL PRIMARILY IMPACTING OKLAHOMA...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            74  94  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          74  93  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  94  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  94  73 /   5   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58



000
FXUS64 KFWD 302321 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...VCTS/VCSH THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS ALONG THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING SEA BREEZE AND OTHER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BEING PRODUCING BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR KACT AND
NOW A FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE DFW METROPLEX.
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

FOR KACT...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE IS TRACKED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 0030-0100Z. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WILL
KEEP A VCTS MENTION THROUGH 02Z AND THEN EXPECT THE RAIN
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AFTER 02Z...VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...BUT
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE DFW METROPLEX AIRPORTS...WILL MENTION VCSH THROUGH 02Z AT
KDAL...KDFW...AND KAFW. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY VCTS AT KFTW AND KGKY
WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR
PREVAILING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10
KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 14-17 KTS
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
TAF ISSUANCES MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS FOR TOMORROW.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A COL ALOFT...THE
STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN OUR CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALLOWED
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO SURVIVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST A
MILE OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. POPS GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY WEAK FLOW (THE 12Z FWD RAOB FOUND WINDS
WERE UNDER 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE) COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE LITTLE INHIBITION...A LACK OF
ANY FOCUS FOR LIFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES...ACTIVITY MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...STILL PRIMARILY IMPACTING OKLAHOMA...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            74  94  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          74  93  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  94  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  94  73 /   5   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58



000
FXUS64 KFWD 302321 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...VCTS/VCSH THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS ALONG THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING SEA BREEZE AND OTHER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BEING PRODUCING BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR KACT AND
NOW A FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE DFW METROPLEX.
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

FOR KACT...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE IS TRACKED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 0030-0100Z. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WILL
KEEP A VCTS MENTION THROUGH 02Z AND THEN EXPECT THE RAIN
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AFTER 02Z...VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...BUT
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE DFW METROPLEX AIRPORTS...WILL MENTION VCSH THROUGH 02Z AT
KDAL...KDFW...AND KAFW. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY VCTS AT KFTW AND KGKY
WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR
PREVAILING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10
KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 14-17 KTS
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
TAF ISSUANCES MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS FOR TOMORROW.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A COL ALOFT...THE
STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN OUR CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALLOWED
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO SURVIVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST A
MILE OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. POPS GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY WEAK FLOW (THE 12Z FWD RAOB FOUND WINDS
WERE UNDER 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE) COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE LITTLE INHIBITION...A LACK OF
ANY FOCUS FOR LIFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES...ACTIVITY MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...STILL PRIMARILY IMPACTING OKLAHOMA...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            74  94  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          74  93  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  94  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  94  73 /   5   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58



000
FXUS64 KFWD 302321 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...VCTS/VCSH THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS ALONG THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING SEA BREEZE AND OTHER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BEING PRODUCING BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR KACT AND
NOW A FEW RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE DFW METROPLEX.
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

FOR KACT...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SEA BREEZE IS TRACKED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 0030-0100Z. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WILL
KEEP A VCTS MENTION THROUGH 02Z AND THEN EXPECT THE RAIN
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AFTER 02Z...VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...BUT
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR THE DFW METROPLEX AIRPORTS...WILL MENTION VCSH THROUGH 02Z AT
KDAL...KDFW...AND KAFW. HOWEVER...WILL CARRY VCTS AT KFTW AND KGKY
WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH VFR
PREVAILING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN 10
KTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 14-17 KTS
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ADDITIONAL
TAF ISSUANCES MAY INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS FOR TOMORROW.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A COL ALOFT...THE
STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN OUR CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALLOWED
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO SURVIVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST A
MILE OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. POPS GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY WEAK FLOW (THE 12Z FWD RAOB FOUND WINDS
WERE UNDER 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE) COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE LITTLE INHIBITION...A LACK OF
ANY FOCUS FOR LIFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES...ACTIVITY MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...STILL PRIMARILY IMPACTING OKLAHOMA...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            74  94  74  93  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          74  93  75  94  74 /  10   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  94  76 /  10   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  94  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  94  73 /   5   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58



000
FXUS64 KEWX 302313
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  92  75  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  20  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  20  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30



000
FXUS64 KEWX 302313
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE TAF SITES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SURGED NORTH THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BEGIN THE TAFS
WITH NO MENTION OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK COULD BE SPOTTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THEM FOR THE SAN ANTONIO SITES AND DEL RIO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD BE LESS IN COVERAGE THAN TODAY
AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  92  75  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  20  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  20  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KMAF 302259
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
559 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
IN PLACE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTY AT TIMES.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE CWA IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE PUTTING THE AREA UNDER EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE EARLIER STORMS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA,
LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS WERE NOT
AFFECTED MUCH BY THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE
MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS INDICATED BY A 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED OMEGA. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE UPPER LIFT MOVES SOUTHWARD, STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
MOVING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL ON
FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING THIS TIME DUE TO THE RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


67/80



000
FXUS64 KMAF 302259
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
559 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
IN PLACE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTY AT TIMES.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE CWA IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE PUTTING THE AREA UNDER EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE EARLIER STORMS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA,
LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS WERE NOT
AFFECTED MUCH BY THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE
MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS INDICATED BY A 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED OMEGA. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE UPPER LIFT MOVES SOUTHWARD, STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
MOVING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL ON
FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING THIS TIME DUE TO THE RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


67/80




000
FXUS64 KAMA 302250
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
550 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES. A
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO KGUY AROUND 18Z TOMORROW BUT WONT
MAKE IT INTO KDHT BEFORE 00Z. PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SO FOR THIS PERIOD THE FOCUS IS MOSTLY ON WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LITE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES UNTIL 09Z WHEN THEY PICK
UP AND THEN START GUSTING AROUND 13Z TO 15Z. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH KGUY...WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
KDHT WINDS WILL BACK TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND CALM A BIT.

BEAT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE FROM
EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
KEEP OUR REGION DRY TODAY. SOME CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREAS.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE UNCERTAIN AND A FURTHER
SOUTHWARD PUSH MAY OCCUR IF COLD POOL GENERATION FROM CONVECTION TO
OUR NORTH IS EXTENSIVE LATE WEDNESDAY.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION WERE RETAINED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DETAILS ARE
STILL NOT VERY CLEAR SO WAS NOT ABLE TO ADD MUCH MORE DETAIL TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER
DEFINE PERIODS OF HIGHEST CHANCES. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE AS WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AGAIN. KEPT SATURDAY DRY BECAUSE OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. WITH STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
POTENTIALLY FAVORING TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION TO ENTER AT LEAST
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...INTRODUCED NEAR CLIMO
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BRB/HL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/15





000
FXUS64 KAMA 302250
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
550 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES. A
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO KGUY AROUND 18Z TOMORROW BUT WONT
MAKE IT INTO KDHT BEFORE 00Z. PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SO FOR THIS PERIOD THE FOCUS IS MOSTLY ON WINDS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND LITE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES UNTIL 09Z WHEN THEY PICK
UP AND THEN START GUSTING AROUND 13Z TO 15Z. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH KGUY...WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
KDHT WINDS WILL BACK TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND CALM A BIT.

BEAT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE FROM
EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
KEEP OUR REGION DRY TODAY. SOME CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREAS.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE UNCERTAIN AND A FURTHER
SOUTHWARD PUSH MAY OCCUR IF COLD POOL GENERATION FROM CONVECTION TO
OUR NORTH IS EXTENSIVE LATE WEDNESDAY.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION WERE RETAINED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DETAILS ARE
STILL NOT VERY CLEAR SO WAS NOT ABLE TO ADD MUCH MORE DETAIL TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER
DEFINE PERIODS OF HIGHEST CHANCES. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE AS WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AGAIN. KEPT SATURDAY DRY BECAUSE OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. WITH STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
POTENTIALLY FAVORING TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION TO ENTER AT LEAST
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...INTRODUCED NEAR CLIMO
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BRB/HL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/15






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302103
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
303 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING WARM AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE TO
THE REGION. THUS EXPECT REDUCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER.

ON THURSDAY A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND
BECOMES ALIGNED NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTOLYTIC
TROUGH SUBSEQUENTLY BECOMES ALMOST STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH PLUS
DESERT HEAT LOW TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL
SUSTAIN A MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS THUS RISE INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND 1.3
TO 1.5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY.

THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH CAPES
AROUND 700 TO 1500 MOST LOCATIONS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PLUS POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES COMING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD THEREFORE GENERATE INCREASING CONVECTION
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
INDICATE A PRIMARY RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING SO
SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z-02/00Z...00Z-06Z ISOLD CB/TSTM MAINLY
GILAS  SCT070-090 SCT 100-140 SCT-BKN200-250. GNL SFC WINDS NNE-ESE
7-13 KTS. AFT 06Z: FEW080 SCT250 WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A LITTLE LESS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE AREA WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FEWER STORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER DISTURBS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INCREASING THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH WILL RUN AROUND 18% TO 23% LOWLANDS AND 30% TO
40% ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS TUESDAY DOWN ABOUT 3% OVERALL ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73 101  75 100 /  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           67  96  68  97 /   0  10   0  10
LAS CRUCES              70  99  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              69  98  71  96 /  10  10  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              56  76  59  74 /  10  20  20  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  98  71  95 /  10  10  10  20
SILVER CITY             64  92  65  88 /  20  20  20  40
DEMING                  69 100  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
LORDSBURG               70 100  70  96 /  10  10  10  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      74 101  75 100 /  10  10  10  10
DELL CITY               66  99  69  98 /   0  10  10  10
FORT HANCOCK            71 101  72 100 /   0  10   0  10
LOMA LINDA              68  94  69  95 /  10  10  10  10
FABENS                  71 101  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            72  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  99  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           69  99  71  97 /  10  10  10  20
HATCH                   69 100  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
COLUMBUS                70 100  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
OROGRANDE               71  98  72  97 /  10  10  10  20
MAYHILL                 58  86  60  82 /  10  20  20  40
MESCALERO               57  87  59  84 /  10  20  20  40
TIMBERON                57  85  59  83 /  10  20  10  40
WINSTON                 62  91  63  88 /  10  20  20  50
HILLSBORO               66  98  67  94 /  10  10  10  30
SPACEPORT               69  99  71  97 /  10  10  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            60  91  61  88 /  20  20  20  50
HURLEY                  66  95  67  91 /  20  20  10  30
CLIFF                   65  98  64  94 /  20  20  20  40
MULE CREEK              66  97  65  93 /  20  20  20  40
FAYWOOD                 66  95  68  92 /  20  10  10  30
ANIMAS                  69 101  70  98 /  10  10  10  30
HACHITA                 68 101  70  98 /  10  10  10  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  99  67  95 /  10  10  10  30
CLOVERDALE              66  95  66  91 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302103
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
303 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING WARM AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE TO
THE REGION. THUS EXPECT REDUCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER.

ON THURSDAY A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND
BECOMES ALIGNED NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTOLYTIC
TROUGH SUBSEQUENTLY BECOMES ALMOST STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH PLUS
DESERT HEAT LOW TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL
SUSTAIN A MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS THUS RISE INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND 1.3
TO 1.5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY.

THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH CAPES
AROUND 700 TO 1500 MOST LOCATIONS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PLUS POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES COMING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD THEREFORE GENERATE INCREASING CONVECTION
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
INDICATE A PRIMARY RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING SO
SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z-02/00Z...00Z-06Z ISOLD CB/TSTM MAINLY
GILAS  SCT070-090 SCT 100-140 SCT-BKN200-250. GNL SFC WINDS NNE-ESE
7-13 KTS. AFT 06Z: FEW080 SCT250 WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A LITTLE LESS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE AREA WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FEWER STORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER DISTURBS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INCREASING THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH WILL RUN AROUND 18% TO 23% LOWLANDS AND 30% TO
40% ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS TUESDAY DOWN ABOUT 3% OVERALL ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73 101  75 100 /  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           67  96  68  97 /   0  10   0  10
LAS CRUCES              70  99  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              69  98  71  96 /  10  10  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              56  76  59  74 /  10  20  20  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  98  71  95 /  10  10  10  20
SILVER CITY             64  92  65  88 /  20  20  20  40
DEMING                  69 100  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
LORDSBURG               70 100  70  96 /  10  10  10  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      74 101  75 100 /  10  10  10  10
DELL CITY               66  99  69  98 /   0  10  10  10
FORT HANCOCK            71 101  72 100 /   0  10   0  10
LOMA LINDA              68  94  69  95 /  10  10  10  10
FABENS                  71 101  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            72  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  99  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           69  99  71  97 /  10  10  10  20
HATCH                   69 100  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
COLUMBUS                70 100  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
OROGRANDE               71  98  72  97 /  10  10  10  20
MAYHILL                 58  86  60  82 /  10  20  20  40
MESCALERO               57  87  59  84 /  10  20  20  40
TIMBERON                57  85  59  83 /  10  20  10  40
WINSTON                 62  91  63  88 /  10  20  20  50
HILLSBORO               66  98  67  94 /  10  10  10  30
SPACEPORT               69  99  71  97 /  10  10  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            60  91  61  88 /  20  20  20  50
HURLEY                  66  95  67  91 /  20  20  10  30
CLIFF                   65  98  64  94 /  20  20  20  40
MULE CREEK              66  97  65  93 /  20  20  20  40
FAYWOOD                 66  95  68  92 /  20  10  10  30
ANIMAS                  69 101  70  98 /  10  10  10  30
HACHITA                 68 101  70  98 /  10  10  10  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  99  67  95 /  10  10  10  30
CLOVERDALE              66  95  66  91 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN



000
FXUS64 KEWX 302056
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  92  75  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  20  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  20  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH



000
FXUS64 KEWX 302056
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
356 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TO OUR NE HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE PAIR OF
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR NW AND SE. THIS WEAK COL PATTERN
COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE FROM A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 TO CONTINUE MOVING N-NE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BETWEEN BRADY AND
LLANO LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING MAY PLAY SOME
ROLE IN SUSTAINING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY IF IT IS ABLE TO INTERACT WITH OUTFLOWS FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING NW...BUT ANY SUCH COLLISION SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PWATS SURGING UP TO 1.8-2.O INCHES AND SE
FLOW MOVING UP THE ESCARPMENT...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NW AS THE
TROUGH TO OUR NE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SW SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS AND
SE FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS OF A THREAT TOMORROW
GIVEN LOWER COVERAGE AND PWATS DECREASING ABOUT A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ALLOW FOR ONLY VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S. ANOTHER COL PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY SETS UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW AND SE...AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SW...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TO THE NE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ON SUNDAY SINCE THE TROUGH TO THE NE WILL
LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MAY INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND...OR SHIFT
THE RAINFALL FOCUS TO SATURDAY INSTEAD OF SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS DEPICTS A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EURO...WHICH WAS
SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE IN OUR WEST AND
TROUGH TO OUR EAST...HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  92  75  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  90  73  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  73  91  73 /  20  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  74  93  74 /  20  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  90  72  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  10  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  91  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  91  74  93  75 /  20  30  10  20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH




000
FXUS64 KSJT 302020
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
will be unfavorable for any convective development. Going with a dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday across the area. Lows tonight will be
upper 60s to mid 70s with highs Wednesday mainly in the 90s.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue for several days.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Inter-mountain West,
with a trough developing across the eastern CONUS. In this type of
upper-level pattern, a northwest flow will develop across the
region. Closer to the surface, southeast to south surface will allow
dewpoints in the 60s or better to persist through the period. Thus,
expect the muggy conditions to continue.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a vorticity maximum diving into
the eastern trough is forecast to send a weak cold front southward
towards West Central Texas. This front may approach the Red River
Valley on Friday as it stalls/washes out. Although the front isn`t
expected to progress into our forecast area, it may be close enough
to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to locations north of
a Sterling City to Baird line during the day Friday. The previous
forecast package had slight chance POPs in that area and this looks
good, so no changes were made. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Early next week, the western ridge will build east with the ridge
axis stretching from the West Coast, through Oklahoma, to the
southeastern states. Rising upper-level heights will lead to
increasing temperatures, and this was reflected in the forecast
with a slight uptick in afternoon highs. However, given the moist
soil conditions from rainfall over the last several days/weeks,
temperatures are not expected to reach the century mark, as the
soil moisture helps negate that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  73  94  72  93 /  10   5   0  10   5
San Angelo  91  70  92  70  92 /  20   5   5   5   5
Junction  89  70  91  69  90 /  20  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 302020
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
will be unfavorable for any convective development. Going with a dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday across the area. Lows tonight will be
upper 60s to mid 70s with highs Wednesday mainly in the 90s.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue for several days.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Inter-mountain West,
with a trough developing across the eastern CONUS. In this type of
upper-level pattern, a northwest flow will develop across the
region. Closer to the surface, southeast to south surface will allow
dewpoints in the 60s or better to persist through the period. Thus,
expect the muggy conditions to continue.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a vorticity maximum diving into
the eastern trough is forecast to send a weak cold front southward
towards West Central Texas. This front may approach the Red River
Valley on Friday as it stalls/washes out. Although the front isn`t
expected to progress into our forecast area, it may be close enough
to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to locations north of
a Sterling City to Baird line during the day Friday. The previous
forecast package had slight chance POPs in that area and this looks
good, so no changes were made. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Early next week, the western ridge will build east with the ridge
axis stretching from the West Coast, through Oklahoma, to the
southeastern states. Rising upper-level heights will lead to
increasing temperatures, and this was reflected in the forecast
with a slight uptick in afternoon highs. However, given the moist
soil conditions from rainfall over the last several days/weeks,
temperatures are not expected to reach the century mark, as the
soil moisture helps negate that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  73  94  72  93 /  10   5   0  10   5
San Angelo  91  70  92  70  92 /  20   5   5   5   5
Junction  89  70  91  69  90 /  20  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 302020
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
will be unfavorable for any convective development. Going with a dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday across the area. Lows tonight will be
upper 60s to mid 70s with highs Wednesday mainly in the 90s.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue for several days.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Inter-mountain West,
with a trough developing across the eastern CONUS. In this type of
upper-level pattern, a northwest flow will develop across the
region. Closer to the surface, southeast to south surface will allow
dewpoints in the 60s or better to persist through the period. Thus,
expect the muggy conditions to continue.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a vorticity maximum diving into
the eastern trough is forecast to send a weak cold front southward
towards West Central Texas. This front may approach the Red River
Valley on Friday as it stalls/washes out. Although the front isn`t
expected to progress into our forecast area, it may be close enough
to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to locations north of
a Sterling City to Baird line during the day Friday. The previous
forecast package had slight chance POPs in that area and this looks
good, so no changes were made. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Early next week, the western ridge will build east with the ridge
axis stretching from the West Coast, through Oklahoma, to the
southeastern states. Rising upper-level heights will lead to
increasing temperatures, and this was reflected in the forecast
with a slight uptick in afternoon highs. However, given the moist
soil conditions from rainfall over the last several days/weeks,
temperatures are not expected to reach the century mark, as the
soil moisture helps negate that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  73  94  72  93 /  10   5   0  10   5
San Angelo  91  70  92  70  92 /  20   5   5   5   5
Junction  89  70  91  69  90 /  20  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/Doll








000
FXUS64 KSJT 302020
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Looks like a quiet 24 hours as conditions aloft and at the surface
will be unfavorable for any convective development. Going with a dry
forecast tonight and Wednesday across the area. Lows tonight will be
upper 60s to mid 70s with highs Wednesday mainly in the 90s.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue for several days.
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the Inter-mountain West,
with a trough developing across the eastern CONUS. In this type of
upper-level pattern, a northwest flow will develop across the
region. Closer to the surface, southeast to south surface will allow
dewpoints in the 60s or better to persist through the period. Thus,
expect the muggy conditions to continue.

Heading into the holiday weekend, a vorticity maximum diving into
the eastern trough is forecast to send a weak cold front southward
towards West Central Texas. This front may approach the Red River
Valley on Friday as it stalls/washes out. Although the front isn`t
expected to progress into our forecast area, it may be close enough
to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to locations north of
a Sterling City to Baird line during the day Friday. The previous
forecast package had slight chance POPs in that area and this looks
good, so no changes were made. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Early next week, the western ridge will build east with the ridge
axis stretching from the West Coast, through Oklahoma, to the
southeastern states. Rising upper-level heights will lead to
increasing temperatures, and this was reflected in the forecast
with a slight uptick in afternoon highs. However, given the moist
soil conditions from rainfall over the last several days/weeks,
temperatures are not expected to reach the century mark, as the
soil moisture helps negate that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  94  73  94  72  93 /  10   5   0  10   5
San Angelo  91  70  92  70  92 /  20   5   5   5   5
Junction  89  70  91  69  90 /  20  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21/Doll








000
FXUS64 KHGX 302014
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER ACTIVE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN GIVEN THE ADDITION OF OUTFLOWS
AND SUCH FROM THE STORMS MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST (MOST-
LY) AND FROM NORTH TX (TO A LESSER DEGREE). ATTM STILL EXPECTING
THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WE SHOULD SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TOMORROW WITH
THE SEABREEZE/HEATING...BUT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE CONTIN-
UED ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN GULF. AS PER SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE/ENERGY IN THAT REGION AND
POSSIBLY A FEW WAVES COMING IN FROM THE NORTH AS WELL.

MODELS TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS SE TX THURS/FRI AS THE UP-
PER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BRIEFLY EXTEND DOWN FROM THE NW AND PWAT
NUMBERS LOWER A BIT. WHILE NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS PROPOSED
SOLUTION WILL GOT AHEAD AND LEAN THAT WAY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE THE
RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ON
SAT/SUN WILL HELP TO INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN. 41

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY IS EVIDENCE THAT ANY SUMMER DAY CAN BE AN ACTIVE MARITIME
WEATHER DAY DUE TO BEING WITHIN THIS RESIDENT WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. THUNDERSTORM TRIGGERING FROM OUTFLOW WIND GUST FRONTS
ORIGINATING FROM A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO COASTLINE...HAVE INITIATED TODAY`S WESTERN GULF STORMS...WIND
GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN OR AROUND THESE
STORM DOWNDRAFTS. STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ONCE AGAIN
IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS AS DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE TRAVEL NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF CENTRAL GULF-CENTERED SURFACE RIDGING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...PICK UP TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER OPEN GULF WATERS/GULF FACING COAST OVERNIGHT. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  92  76  92  76 /  20  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  93  76 /  30  30  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  88  81  88  81 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 302014
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER ACTIVE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN GIVEN THE ADDITION OF OUTFLOWS
AND SUCH FROM THE STORMS MOVING UP FROM THE LOWER TX COAST (MOST-
LY) AND FROM NORTH TX (TO A LESSER DEGREE). ATTM STILL EXPECTING
THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WE SHOULD SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TOMORROW WITH
THE SEABREEZE/HEATING...BUT WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE CONTIN-
UED ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN GULF. AS PER SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE/ENERGY IN THAT REGION AND
POSSIBLY A FEW WAVES COMING IN FROM THE NORTH AS WELL.

MODELS TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS SE TX THURS/FRI AS THE UP-
PER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BRIEFLY EXTEND DOWN FROM THE NW AND PWAT
NUMBERS LOWER A BIT. WHILE NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS PROPOSED
SOLUTION WILL GOT AHEAD AND LEAN THAT WAY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE THE
RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ANOTHER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ON
SAT/SUN WILL HELP TO INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN. 41

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY IS EVIDENCE THAT ANY SUMMER DAY CAN BE AN ACTIVE MARITIME
WEATHER DAY DUE TO BEING WITHIN THIS RESIDENT WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS. THUNDERSTORM TRIGGERING FROM OUTFLOW WIND GUST FRONTS
ORIGINATING FROM A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO COASTLINE...HAVE INITIATED TODAY`S WESTERN GULF STORMS...WIND
GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 35 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN OR AROUND THESE
STORM DOWNDRAFTS. STORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ONCE AGAIN
IN SUBSEQUENT DAYS AS DISTURBANCES ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE TRAVEL NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF CENTRAL GULF-CENTERED SURFACE RIDGING. BACKGROUND WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...PICK UP TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER OPEN GULF WATERS/GULF FACING COAST OVERNIGHT. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  92  76  92  76 /  20  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  76  93  76 /  30  30  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  88  81  88  81 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 302012
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A COL ALOFT...THE
STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN OUR CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALLOWED
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO SURVIVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST A
MILE OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. POPS GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY WEAK FLOW (THE 12Z FWD RAOB FOUND WINDS
WERE UNDER 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE) COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE LITTLE INHIBITION...A LACK OF
ANY FOCUS FOR LIFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES...ACTIVITY MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...STILL PRIMARILY IMPACTING OKLAHOMA...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE AT
ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

A SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 14 KNOTS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  94  76 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            74  94  74  93  74 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          74  93  75  94  74 /   5   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  94  76 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  94  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  94  73 /   5   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25




000
FXUS64 KFWD 302012
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WITH A COL ALOFT...THE
STORM MOTION IS GOVERNED BY WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENTER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN OUR CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ALLOWED
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO SURVIVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DESPITE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD ASSURE AT LEAST A
MILE OF SUB-CLOUD LAYER FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. POPS GENERALLY
COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...VERY WEAK FLOW (THE 12Z FWD RAOB FOUND WINDS
WERE UNDER 20KTS THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE) COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL. DESPITE LITTLE INHIBITION...A LACK OF
ANY FOCUS FOR LIFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SUPPRESSING SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES...ACTIVITY MAY ENCROACH ON NORTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...STILL PRIMARILY IMPACTING OKLAHOMA...BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL AFFECT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

A SEASONAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THE
FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 500MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE 5900M THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WE MAY NEED TO
BEGIN DISCUSSING OUR FIRST TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE AT
ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

A SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 14 KNOTS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  75  94  76 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              74  93  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             73  92  74  91  73 /  10  10  10  10  30
DENTON, TX            74  94  74  93  74 /   5   5   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          74  93  75  94  74 /   5   5   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  94  76 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           74  93  75  94  75 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  92  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  73  93  73 /  20  10  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  94  72  94  73 /   5   5  10   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/25



000
FXUS64 KLUB 302012
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MCS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING LEFT THE ROLLING PLAINS FAIRLY STABLE WHILE THE SOUTH
PLAINS SEES A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. ALOFT...THE JET STREAM
THAT HELPED INITIATE STORMS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST A BIT AS WELL.
THIS HAS LIKELY RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WHERE CU ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TODAY...THEY
WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVERHEAD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF ANY FRONTS
WILL HAVE AID IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER THIS WEEK. ANY FRONTS DO LOOK TO STALL OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE BUT ANY MOVEMENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN
IN MODELS COULD BOOST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS FORMING EVERY EVENING WILL FURTHER INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH AS ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL MIGRATE BACK EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SQUASH
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE...IT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO MONSOONAL LIKE CONVECTION FROM
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  66  89 /   0  10  20  30
TULIA         63  93  69  89 /   0   0  20  30
PLAINVIEW     64  91  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     66  93  67  91 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       66  94  68  92 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   64  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  92 /   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     70  98  73  94 /   0   0  10  20
SPUR          68  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     69  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/01



000
FXUS64 KLUB 302012
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
312 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MCS THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING LEFT THE ROLLING PLAINS FAIRLY STABLE WHILE THE SOUTH
PLAINS SEES A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. ALOFT...THE JET STREAM
THAT HELPED INITIATE STORMS YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO EXTEND EAST A BIT AS WELL.
THIS HAS LIKELY RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN THREE-
QUARTERS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING IN THE AREA WHERE CU ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON SO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TODAY...THEY
WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVERHEAD. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF ANY FRONTS
WILL HAVE AID IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW LATER THIS WEEK. ANY FRONTS DO LOOK TO STALL OUT IN
THE PANHANDLE BUT ANY MOVEMENT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN
IN MODELS COULD BOOST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH PLAINS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS FORMING EVERY EVENING WILL FURTHER INCREASE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
SEVERE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH AS ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.

THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL MIGRATE BACK EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY SQUASH
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE...IT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO MONSOONAL LIKE CONVECTION FROM
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  66  89 /   0  10  20  30
TULIA         63  93  69  89 /   0   0  20  30
PLAINVIEW     64  91  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     66  93  67  91 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       66  94  68  92 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   64  93  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  66  92 /   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     70  98  73  94 /   0   0  10  20
SPUR          68  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     69  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/01




000
FXUS64 KCRP 302010
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
310 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED N AND W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR THE FAR W CWA. A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDVLP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD WED
MORNING AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE/PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO S TX. THE GFS PUSHES THIS SWATH OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD VERY RAPIDLY WITH PWATS DROPPING TO 1.5 INCHES WED
AFTERNOON. THINK THE GFS IS DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE A TAD TOO MUCH
BUT THAT SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR. THUS...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY`S EVENT. KEPT 20-40 POPS FOR WED.
MODELS SHOW DRYING TO CONTINUE WED NIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP...HOWEVER...KEPT THE 20 POP FOR THE COAST AND REMOVED
MENTION OF TSRA. AM EXPECTING THAT A FEW STREAMER SHRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...BUMPED UP WINDS FOR THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH WEAK TO MODERATE LEVELS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ISOL/SCT
SHRA/TSRA`S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CONTINUING
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...STILL LOOKS DRIER ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE
MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH DAYS.  FOR THE WEEKEND DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND A BIT OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW PCPN CVRG TO INCRS
AGAIN...ESPLY ON SUNDAY WHERE WE`LL CONTINUE 30-40 POPS.  LESS MSTR
THEN LOOKS TO BE AROUND TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SO POPS WILL BE
TAPERED BACK.  THE TREND WILL BE FOR SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS THRU THE
PD BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  92  77  90  77  /  20  30  20  20  10
VICTORIA          76  92  75  90  75  /  10  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            76  97  75  96  75  /  30  20  10  20  10
ALICE             75  95  75  92  76  /  10  40  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  88  80  /  30  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           75  95  75  94  74  /  20  20  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  77  92  77  /  10  30  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  80  87  79  /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM



000
FXUS64 KCRP 302010
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
310 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED N AND W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR THE FAR W CWA. A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDVLP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD WED
MORNING AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE/PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO S TX. THE GFS PUSHES THIS SWATH OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD VERY RAPIDLY WITH PWATS DROPPING TO 1.5 INCHES WED
AFTERNOON. THINK THE GFS IS DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE A TAD TOO MUCH
BUT THAT SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR. THUS...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY`S EVENT. KEPT 20-40 POPS FOR WED.
MODELS SHOW DRYING TO CONTINUE WED NIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP...HOWEVER...KEPT THE 20 POP FOR THE COAST AND REMOVED
MENTION OF TSRA. AM EXPECTING THAT A FEW STREAMER SHRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...BUMPED UP WINDS FOR THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH WEAK TO MODERATE LEVELS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ISOL/SCT
SHRA/TSRA`S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CONTINUING
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...STILL LOOKS DRIER ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE
MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH DAYS.  FOR THE WEEKEND DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND A BIT OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW PCPN CVRG TO INCRS
AGAIN...ESPLY ON SUNDAY WHERE WE`LL CONTINUE 30-40 POPS.  LESS MSTR
THEN LOOKS TO BE AROUND TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD SO POPS WILL BE
TAPERED BACK.  THE TREND WILL BE FOR SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS THRU THE
PD BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  92  77  90  77  /  20  30  20  20  10
VICTORIA          76  92  75  90  75  /  10  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            76  97  75  96  75  /  30  20  10  20  10
ALICE             75  95  75  92  76  /  10  40  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          79  91  80  88  80  /  30  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           75  95  75  94  74  /  20  20  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  77  92  77  /  10  30  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  90  80  87  79  /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KMAF 301931
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE CWA IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE PUTTING THE AREA UNDER EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE EARLIER STORMS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA,
LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS WERE NOT
AFFECTED MUCH BY THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE
MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS INDICATED BY A 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED OMEGA. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE UPPER LIFT MOVES SOUTHWARD, STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
MOVING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL ON
FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING THIS TIME DUE TO THE RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  70  94  69  91  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    68  96  68  97  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      71  92  71  90  /  20   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               68  94  69  94  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              64  90  68  92  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                       66  93  67  93  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                       57  88  61  89  /  20  10   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        69  93  68  93  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      70  93  68  93  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                        70  97  71  97  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80




000
FXUS64 KMAF 301931
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE CWA IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE PUTTING THE AREA UNDER EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE EARLIER STORMS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA,
LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS WERE NOT
AFFECTED MUCH BY THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE
MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS INDICATED BY A 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED OMEGA. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE UPPER LIFT MOVES SOUTHWARD, STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
MOVING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL ON
FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING THIS TIME DUE TO THE RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  70  94  69  91  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    68  96  68  97  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      71  92  71  90  /  20   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               68  94  69  94  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              64  90  68  92  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                       66  93  67  93  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                       57  88  61  89  /  20  10   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        69  93  68  93  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      70  93  68  93  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                        70  97  71  97  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80




000
FXUS64 KMAF 301931
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE CWA IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE PUTTING THE AREA UNDER EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE EARLIER STORMS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA,
LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS WERE NOT
AFFECTED MUCH BY THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE
MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS INDICATED BY A 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED OMEGA. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE UPPER LIFT MOVES SOUTHWARD, STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
MOVING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL ON
FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING THIS TIME DUE TO THE RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  70  94  69  91  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    68  96  68  97  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      71  92  71  90  /  20   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               68  94  69  94  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              64  90  68  92  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                       66  93  67  93  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                       57  88  61  89  /  20  10   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        69  93  68  93  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      70  93  68  93  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                        70  97  71  97  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80




000
FXUS64 KMAF 301931
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE CWA IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE PUTTING THE AREA UNDER EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE EARLIER STORMS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA,
LOWER TRANS PECOS, AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THESE AREAS WERE NOT
AFFECTED MUCH BY THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE
MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON THAN AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS INDICATED BY A 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED OMEGA. MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE UPPER LIFT MOVES SOUTHWARD, STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
MOVING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL ON
FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY
AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINNING THIS TIME DUE TO THE RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  70  94  69  91  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    68  96  68  97  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      71  92  71  90  /  20   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               68  94  69  94  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              64  90  68  92  /   0   0   0  20
HOBBS NM                       66  93  67  93  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                       57  88  61  89  /  20  10   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        69  93  68  93  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      70  93  68  93  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                        70  97  71  97  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80




000
FXUS64 KBRO 301904
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  87  78  90 /  40  50  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  89  77  91 /  40  50  20  20
HARLINGEN            76  90  76  93 /  30  40  20  20
MCALLEN              78  92  78  95 /  40  50  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  93  75  95 /  20  40  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  85  81  86 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/64



000
FXUS64 KBRO 301904
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  87  78  90 /  40  50  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  89  77  91 /  40  50  20  20
HARLINGEN            76  90  76  93 /  30  40  20  20
MCALLEN              78  92  78  95 /  40  50  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  93  75  95 /  20  40  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  85  81  86 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 301904
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  87  78  90 /  40  50  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  89  77  91 /  40  50  20  20
HARLINGEN            76  90  76  93 /  30  40  20  20
MCALLEN              78  92  78  95 /  40  50  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  93  75  95 /  20  40  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  85  81  86 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/64




000
FXUS64 KBRO 301904
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
204 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHILE WESTWARD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM HALF INCH TO CLOSE TO 1 INCHES WITH ISOLATED SPOT OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN WILLACY COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS AROUND 500 MB HEIGHT RIDGE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS WHILE A
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EAST. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. THE KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE OF
1.92 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING
BETWEEN 75 TO 73 DEGREES AND A VERY DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CLOSE TO
500 MB. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO ASIDE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
COMING FROM THE GULF IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO
ENHANCE MORE STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT MAINLY FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AND NEAR 80S ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY INLAND WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 500 MB 80 PERCENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STREAMER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO OPPOSE ONE ANOTHER...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN PLAYER LOCALLY FOR
THE PERIOD WILL BE GULF MOISTURE. THE RAINFALL FORECAST WILL
HINGE ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EACH DAY DURING PEAK
HEATING. CURRENT MOISTURE POOL WILL BE SWEEPING NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE
INLAND...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. EVEN LESS MOISTURE
ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT THE SEABREEZE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A
DRIER DAY FARTHER INLAND. MODELS SHOW A BETTER PLUME IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW SITES MIGHT SEE SOME EVENING
NATURAL FIREWORKS. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THAT MOISTURE
DIMINISHES FURTHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUED DOWNWARD
TREND OF POP CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMAL FLUCTUATION IN THE LONGER TERM
MARINE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN GULF.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SEAS STICK TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RUNNING A 5 TO 6 SECOND PERIOD THROUGHOUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  87  78  90 /  40  50  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          77  89  77  91 /  40  50  20  20
HARLINGEN            76  90  76  93 /  30  40  20  20
MCALLEN              78  92  78  95 /  40  50  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  93  75  95 /  20  40  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  85  81  86 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/64



000
FXUS64 KAMA 301859
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE FROM
EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
KEEP OUR REGION DRY TODAY. SOME CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREAS.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE UNCERTAIN AND A FURTHER
SOUTHWARD PUSH MAY OCCUR IF COLD POOL GENERATION FROM CONVECTION TO
OUR NORTH IS EXTENSIVE LATE WEDNESDAY.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION WERE RETAINED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DETAILS ARE
STILL NOT VERY CLEAR SO WAS NOT ABLE TO ADD MUCH MORE DETAIL TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER
DEFINE PERIODS OF HIGHEST CHANCES. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE AS WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AGAIN. KEPT SATURDAY DRY BECAUSE OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. WITH STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
POTENTIALLY FAVORING TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION TO ENTER AT LEAST
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...INTRODUCED NEAR CLIMO
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BRB/HL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  94  69  88  66 /   0  10  30  30  30
BEAVER OK                  71  98  70  91  67 /   0  20  10  30  40
BOISE CITY OK              67  94  65  88  63 /   0  20  30  30  40
BORGER TX                  72  98  72  92  69 /   0  10  30  30  30
BOYS RANCH TX              67  97  69  91  66 /   0  10  30  30  40
CANYON TX                  66  93  68  90  65 /   0   5  30  30  30
CLARENDON TX               69  94  70  90  69 /   0   5  30  30  30
DALHART TX                 67  96  67  90  64 /   0  20  30  30  40
GUYMON OK                  70  97  70  91  66 /   0  20  20  30  40
HEREFORD TX                66  93  68  90  66 /   0   5  30  30  30
LIPSCOMB TX                71  98  71  91  67 /   0  10  20  30  30
PAMPA TX                   68  94  70  90  66 /   0  10  30  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                70  96  71  91  68 /   0   5  20  20  30
WELLINGTON TX              71  95  73  92  71 /   0   5  20  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/10






000
FXUS64 KAMA 301859
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
159 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. SUBSIDENCE FROM
EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
KEEP OUR REGION DRY TODAY. SOME CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
LATER TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREAS.
DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE UNCERTAIN AND A FURTHER
SOUTHWARD PUSH MAY OCCUR IF COLD POOL GENERATION FROM CONVECTION TO
OUR NORTH IS EXTENSIVE LATE WEDNESDAY.

SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF CONVECTION WERE RETAINED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DETAILS ARE
STILL NOT VERY CLEAR SO WAS NOT ABLE TO ADD MUCH MORE DETAIL TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER
DEFINE PERIODS OF HIGHEST CHANCES. ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE AS WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AGAIN. KEPT SATURDAY DRY BECAUSE OF THIS. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. ECMWF IS
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. WITH STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
POTENTIALLY FAVORING TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION TO ENTER AT LEAST
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK...INTRODUCED NEAR CLIMO
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BRB/HL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  94  69  88  66 /   0  10  30  30  30
BEAVER OK                  71  98  70  91  67 /   0  20  10  30  40
BOISE CITY OK              67  94  65  88  63 /   0  20  30  30  40
BORGER TX                  72  98  72  92  69 /   0  10  30  30  30
BOYS RANCH TX              67  97  69  91  66 /   0  10  30  30  40
CANYON TX                  66  93  68  90  65 /   0   5  30  30  30
CLARENDON TX               69  94  70  90  69 /   0   5  30  30  30
DALHART TX                 67  96  67  90  64 /   0  20  30  30  40
GUYMON OK                  70  97  70  91  66 /   0  20  20  30  40
HEREFORD TX                66  93  68  90  66 /   0   5  30  30  30
LIPSCOMB TX                71  98  71  91  67 /   0  10  20  30  30
PAMPA TX                   68  94  70  90  66 /   0  10  30  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                70  96  71  91  68 /   0   5  20  20  30
WELLINGTON TX              71  95  73  92  71 /   0   5  20  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/10





000
FXUS64 KHGX 301839
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
139 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THAT INITIALIZED ON THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING MOVING ACROSS METRO...SUBSEQUENT
OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS ADVANCING NORTH AND MAY PLACE TEMPO`S
ACROSS IAH IN THE COMING HOURS. NOT MUCH WIND WITH THESE SLOW
MOVING STORMS..ALTHOUGH A QUICK GUST TO 30 KTS IS LIKELY IN
VICINITY OF DOWNDRAFTS. REPEAT OF SHORT-LIVED EITHEREARLY AM MVFR
BR OR IFR DECKS FURTHER INLAND...PASSING SHOWER OR ROGUE STORM
OVER THE ISLAND DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED MORNING HOURS. ONCE MID
80 TEMPERATURES ARE MET EXPECTING SIMILAR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TOMORROW FROM COAST MOVING NORTHWARD. SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS
AS CELLS PASS THROUGH AT AROUND 15-20 KNOTS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE FCST AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION STARTING
TO PICK UP NEAR/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WE ARE SEEING SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NRN ZONES (FROM OUTFLOWS RELATED TO OVERNIGHT
TSRA ACROSS NORTH TX?). STILL EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE
NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. 41

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO FEED MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION AND WITH A NORTHWEST/WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS /WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO/ CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF. 3 AM CDT MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS
A THETA-E MAXIMA LOCATED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING
/WHERE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY
IS/... AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE THIS FEATURE TOWARDS
THE SABINE PASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS IN RESPONSE. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING... HIGHEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES /30 TO 40 POPS/
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SEA BREEZE
WITH COVERAGE REMAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER INLAND WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT
FROM STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

FOR TONIGHT... EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO TAPER
OFF INLAND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH ISOLATED PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE IN RURAL AREAS AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING... CARRYING 20 TO 30 POPS ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /1.6-1.8
TOMORROW COMPARE TO 1.8-2.0 INCHES TODAY/ CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY
LESS COVERAGE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... BUT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE EAST WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. HEADING INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /LOCATED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ON EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ IS
EXPECTED TO REACH TEXAS... WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. 14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  92  75  93  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  75  93  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  89  79  89  80 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 301839
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
139 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THAT INITIALIZED ON THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING MOVING ACROSS METRO...SUBSEQUENT
OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS ADVANCING NORTH AND MAY PLACE TEMPO`S
ACROSS IAH IN THE COMING HOURS. NOT MUCH WIND WITH THESE SLOW
MOVING STORMS..ALTHOUGH A QUICK GUST TO 30 KTS IS LIKELY IN
VICINITY OF DOWNDRAFTS. REPEAT OF SHORT-LIVED EITHEREARLY AM MVFR
BR OR IFR DECKS FURTHER INLAND...PASSING SHOWER OR ROGUE STORM
OVER THE ISLAND DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED MORNING HOURS. ONCE MID
80 TEMPERATURES ARE MET EXPECTING SIMILAR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TOMORROW FROM COAST MOVING NORTHWARD. SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS
AS CELLS PASS THROUGH AT AROUND 15-20 KNOTS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE FCST AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION STARTING
TO PICK UP NEAR/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WE ARE SEEING SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NRN ZONES (FROM OUTFLOWS RELATED TO OVERNIGHT
TSRA ACROSS NORTH TX?). STILL EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE
NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. 41

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO FEED MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION AND WITH A NORTHWEST/WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS /WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO/ CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF. 3 AM CDT MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS
A THETA-E MAXIMA LOCATED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING
/WHERE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY
IS/... AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE THIS FEATURE TOWARDS
THE SABINE PASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS IN RESPONSE. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING... HIGHEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES /30 TO 40 POPS/
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SEA BREEZE
WITH COVERAGE REMAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER INLAND WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT
FROM STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

FOR TONIGHT... EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO TAPER
OFF INLAND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH ISOLATED PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE IN RURAL AREAS AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING... CARRYING 20 TO 30 POPS ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /1.6-1.8
TOMORROW COMPARE TO 1.8-2.0 INCHES TODAY/ CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY
LESS COVERAGE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... BUT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE EAST WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. HEADING INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /LOCATED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ON EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ IS
EXPECTED TO REACH TEXAS... WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. 14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  92  75  93  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  75  93  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  89  79  89  80 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 301839
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
139 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THAT INITIALIZED ON THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING MOVING ACROSS METRO...SUBSEQUENT
OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS ADVANCING NORTH AND MAY PLACE TEMPO`S
ACROSS IAH IN THE COMING HOURS. NOT MUCH WIND WITH THESE SLOW
MOVING STORMS..ALTHOUGH A QUICK GUST TO 30 KTS IS LIKELY IN
VICINITY OF DOWNDRAFTS. REPEAT OF SHORT-LIVED EITHEREARLY AM MVFR
BR OR IFR DECKS FURTHER INLAND...PASSING SHOWER OR ROGUE STORM
OVER THE ISLAND DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED MORNING HOURS. ONCE MID
80 TEMPERATURES ARE MET EXPECTING SIMILAR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TOMORROW FROM COAST MOVING NORTHWARD. SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS
AS CELLS PASS THROUGH AT AROUND 15-20 KNOTS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE FCST AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION STARTING
TO PICK UP NEAR/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WE ARE SEEING SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NRN ZONES (FROM OUTFLOWS RELATED TO OVERNIGHT
TSRA ACROSS NORTH TX?). STILL EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE
NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. 41

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO FEED MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION AND WITH A NORTHWEST/WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS /WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO/ CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF. 3 AM CDT MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS
A THETA-E MAXIMA LOCATED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING
/WHERE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY
IS/... AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE THIS FEATURE TOWARDS
THE SABINE PASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS IN RESPONSE. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING... HIGHEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES /30 TO 40 POPS/
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SEA BREEZE
WITH COVERAGE REMAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER INLAND WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT
FROM STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

FOR TONIGHT... EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO TAPER
OFF INLAND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH ISOLATED PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE IN RURAL AREAS AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING... CARRYING 20 TO 30 POPS ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /1.6-1.8
TOMORROW COMPARE TO 1.8-2.0 INCHES TODAY/ CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY
LESS COVERAGE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... BUT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE EAST WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. HEADING INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /LOCATED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ON EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ IS
EXPECTED TO REACH TEXAS... WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. 14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  92  75  93  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  75  93  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  89  79  89  80 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 301839
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
139 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THAT INITIALIZED ON THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING MOVING ACROSS METRO...SUBSEQUENT
OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS ADVANCING NORTH AND MAY PLACE TEMPO`S
ACROSS IAH IN THE COMING HOURS. NOT MUCH WIND WITH THESE SLOW
MOVING STORMS..ALTHOUGH A QUICK GUST TO 30 KTS IS LIKELY IN
VICINITY OF DOWNDRAFTS. REPEAT OF SHORT-LIVED EITHEREARLY AM MVFR
BR OR IFR DECKS FURTHER INLAND...PASSING SHOWER OR ROGUE STORM
OVER THE ISLAND DURING THE PRE-DAWN WED MORNING HOURS. ONCE MID
80 TEMPERATURES ARE MET EXPECTING SIMILAR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TOMORROW FROM COAST MOVING NORTHWARD. SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS
AS CELLS PASS THROUGH AT AROUND 15-20 KNOTS. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE FCST AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION STARTING
TO PICK UP NEAR/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...AS WE ARE SEEING SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NRN ZONES (FROM OUTFLOWS RELATED TO OVERNIGHT
TSRA ACROSS NORTH TX?). STILL EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE
NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. 41

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO FEED MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR
INTO THE REGION AND WITH A NORTHWEST/WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS /WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO/ CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF. 3 AM CDT MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS
A THETA-E MAXIMA LOCATED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING
/WHERE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENTLY
IS/... AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE THIS FEATURE TOWARDS
THE SABINE PASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS IN RESPONSE. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING... HIGHEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES /30 TO 40 POPS/
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SEA BREEZE
WITH COVERAGE REMAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER INLAND WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT
FROM STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

FOR TONIGHT... EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO TAPER
OFF INLAND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH ISOLATED PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE IN RURAL AREAS AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING... CARRYING 20 TO 30 POPS ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /1.6-1.8
TOMORROW COMPARE TO 1.8-2.0 INCHES TODAY/ CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY
LESS COVERAGE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... BUT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE EAST WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. HEADING INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /LOCATED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ON EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ IS
EXPECTED TO REACH TEXAS... WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. 14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  92  75  93  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              75  92  75  93  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  89  79  89  80 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KBRO 301749
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1249 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN CLUSTER OF MODERATE
SHOWERS MOVING NORTH TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHALANDS
AT THIS TIME WITH NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH OF THE
BORDER AND IN THE LOWER VALLEY. EXPECT A QUICK BREAK ACROSS THE
AREA WITH BKN TO OVC CLOUD COVER WITH VFR NEAR THE COAST AND
MVFR OVER MFE. THIS CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING TO A MORE ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWER
POSSIBLE. AFTER MIDNIGHT ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION STARTING IN THE
EARLY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF VCTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR THE BEST TIMING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A MIX OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PREVAILS ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. LATEST BRO RADAR INDICATES
ISOLATED CONVECTION MOVING NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WITH A LARGE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 115 SM
SOUTH OF BRO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT
LOCAL TAF SITES STARTING AROUND 14Z. WILL MENTION TEMPO FOR VALLEY
AIRPORTS FOR THIS CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES...ONE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND THE OTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TWO FEATURES
PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE
ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM
OVERHEAD. ALSO...A WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS BRINGING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST LINE...MOVING
NORTHWARD. BROWNSVILLE RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND AFFECT MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE SURGE OF MOISTURE...THE PERSISTENT WEAKNESS OVERHEAD AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF...THEREFORE WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MODEL
BLEND FOR POPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALSO...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEEP TROPICAL
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...THE
LOW 90S ACROSS THE VALLEY AND THE MID 90S ACROSS THE WEST. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS BROAD 500 MB TROFFING AND SOME DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MEXICO WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
KEEPING THIS TROFFING AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHUNTED A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RGV WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
CONV POTENTIAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER
DAYTIME HEATING MAY INITIATE SOME SPOTTIER CONV MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL LEAVE IN SOME 20 TO 30 % POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD. AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND APPROACHES BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TX DURING THE PERIOD FROM SAT THROUGH SUN. SO WILL
MAINTAIN SOME HIGHER CHC POPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE MORE
CONV COVERAGE EXPECTED.

BELIEVE THAT THE GFS MAY HAVE TOO LOW OF A BIAS FOR POPS IN THE
LONGER RANGE PERIOD AND WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE HIGHER ECMWF POPS
THROUGH DAY 7.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE HIGHS TO A LITTLE MORE LIMITED IN THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD AS THE CONV THREAT WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE DAYTIME
WARMUP SOMEWHAT. SO WILL GO A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE AND CLIMO FOR
HIGHS THROUGH MON AND CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR LOWS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS
GENERALLY A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IN THE
HANDLING OF THE PCPN POTENTIAL WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A WET
BIAS VERSUS THE GFS.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 17 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 3.6 FEET. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF INTERACTING WITH
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET NEAR SHORE
AND 3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PGF MAY INCREASE A BIT
ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE PUSHING THE WINDS AND SEAS UP SOME
LATER THIS WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND APPROACHES. THE ROUGHEST CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS DURING THE PERIOD FROM THURS
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/64



000
FXUS64 KBRO 301749
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1249 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN CLUSTER OF MODERATE
SHOWERS MOVING NORTH TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHALANDS
AT THIS TIME WITH NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH OF THE
BORDER AND IN THE LOWER VALLEY. EXPECT A QUICK BREAK ACROSS THE
AREA WITH BKN TO OVC CLOUD COVER WITH VFR NEAR THE COAST AND
MVFR OVER MFE. THIS CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING TO A MORE ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWER
POSSIBLE. AFTER MIDNIGHT ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION STARTING IN THE
EARLY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF VCTS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR THE BEST TIMING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A MIX OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PREVAILS ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. LATEST BRO RADAR INDICATES
ISOLATED CONVECTION MOVING NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WITH A LARGE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 115 SM
SOUTH OF BRO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT
LOCAL TAF SITES STARTING AROUND 14Z. WILL MENTION TEMPO FOR VALLEY
AIRPORTS FOR THIS CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE REGION IS BETWEEN TWO 500MB RIDGES...ONE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND THE OTHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. TWO FEATURES
PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. A 250MB TROUGH WITH THE
ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROVIDING SOME CIRRUS TO STREAM
OVERHEAD. ALSO...A WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS BRINGING SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST LINE...MOVING
NORTHWARD. BROWNSVILLE RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND AFFECT MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE SURGE OF MOISTURE...THE PERSISTENT WEAKNESS OVERHEAD AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF...THEREFORE WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MODEL
BLEND FOR POPS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALSO...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEEP TROPICAL
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...THE
LOW 90S ACROSS THE VALLEY AND THE MID 90S ACROSS THE WEST. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS BROAD 500 MB TROFFING AND SOME DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MEXICO WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
KEEPING THIS TROFFING AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE SHUNTED A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RGV WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
CONV POTENTIAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER
DAYTIME HEATING MAY INITIATE SOME SPOTTIER CONV MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WILL LEAVE IN SOME 20 TO 30 % POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD. AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND APPROACHES BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
DEEP SOUTH TX DURING THE PERIOD FROM SAT THROUGH SUN. SO WILL
MAINTAIN SOME HIGHER CHC POPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE MORE
CONV COVERAGE EXPECTED.

BELIEVE THAT THE GFS MAY HAVE TOO LOW OF A BIAS FOR POPS IN THE
LONGER RANGE PERIOD AND WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE HIGHER ECMWF POPS
THROUGH DAY 7.

FOR TEMPS EXPECT THE HIGHS TO A LITTLE MORE LIMITED IN THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD AS THE CONV THREAT WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE DAYTIME
WARMUP SOMEWHAT. SO WILL GO A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE AND CLIMO FOR
HIGHS THROUGH MON AND CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR LOWS.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS
GENERALLY A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IN THE
HANDLING OF THE PCPN POTENTIAL WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING A WET
BIAS VERSUS THE GFS.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING.
BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 17 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 3.6 FEET. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF INTERACTING WITH
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET NEAR SHORE
AND 3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PGF MAY INCREASE A BIT
ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE PUSHING THE WINDS AND SEAS UP SOME
LATER THIS WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND APPROACHES. THE ROUGHEST CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE GULF WATERS DURING THE PERIOD FROM THURS
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/64




000
FXUS64 KFWD 301747
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1247 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE AT
ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

A SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 14 KNOTS.