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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221742
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEEMS TO BE WELL IN CONTROL OVER MUCH OF THE N
GULF INTO THE NW GULF. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TODAY
AND TOMORROW. SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EDGING WEST SO EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT GOING INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL ONLY MINOR IF ANY AVIATION
IMPACTS THE NEXT 24 HRS.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WITH SFC HIGH CLOSER TO
AREA MAY HAVE LONGER PERIOD OF CALM WINDS. THINK GROUND FOG MAY BE
AN ISSUE WITH SOME LOW CEILINGS SO TEMPO MVFR CIGS FOR VSBY AND
CEILINGS AT THE TERMINALS. KUTS HAD IFR CIGS SO CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR TAF YET. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT LATE MORNING TOMORROW WITH VFR AFTER THAT.

KIAH/KHOU/KSGR/KLBX/KGLS...SFC RIDGE WILL BE MORE OF AN IMPACT
TONIGHT WITH CALMER WINDS SO GROUND FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR RURAL
TERMINALS LIKE KSGR/KLBX. POSSIBLE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD
DEVELOP BUT AGAIN SHOULD BE TEMPORARY LIKE THIS MORNING. THINK
KIAH/KHOU WILL STAY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE FOR KSGR/KLBX. DO NOT
SEE ANY IMPACTS FOR KGLS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)     100  77  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
LA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...39



000
FXUS64 KHGX 221742
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEEMS TO BE WELL IN CONTROL OVER MUCH OF THE N
GULF INTO THE NW GULF. THINK CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED TODAY
AND TOMORROW. SFC RIDGE SLOWLY EDGING WEST SO EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT GOING INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL ONLY MINOR IF ANY AVIATION
IMPACTS THE NEXT 24 HRS.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND WITH SFC HIGH CLOSER TO
AREA MAY HAVE LONGER PERIOD OF CALM WINDS. THINK GROUND FOG MAY BE
AN ISSUE WITH SOME LOW CEILINGS SO TEMPO MVFR CIGS FOR VSBY AND
CEILINGS AT THE TERMINALS. KUTS HAD IFR CIGS SO CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR TAF YET. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT LATE MORNING TOMORROW WITH VFR AFTER THAT.

KIAH/KHOU/KSGR/KLBX/KGLS...SFC RIDGE WILL BE MORE OF AN IMPACT
TONIGHT WITH CALMER WINDS SO GROUND FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR RURAL
TERMINALS LIKE KSGR/KLBX. POSSIBLE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD
DEVELOP BUT AGAIN SHOULD BE TEMPORARY LIKE THIS MORNING. THINK
KIAH/KHOU WILL STAY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE FOR KSGR/KLBX. DO NOT
SEE ANY IMPACTS FOR KGLS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)     100  77  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
LA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...39



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 221736
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...WE EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH BASES GENERALLY IN THE 6-8K AGL RANGE.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR
CIGS FOR OUR I-35 TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z-15Z. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AT KDRT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL AREAS AFTER 23/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HOT AND DRY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH DO NOT SHOW ANY ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LIKE WE SAW ON
THURSDAY. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND HUMIDITY IS LOW.

WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 80 AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO GONZALES TO
FLORESVILLE LINE. WITH WINDS DYING OFF MORE TONIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF
CENTRAL TEXAS WEATHER. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL CONTINUE. MODELS
SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             101  75 100  75 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101  72 100  72 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    102  73 101  72 101 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  72  97  72  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  75  99  77 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  74  98  74  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  71  99  73  99 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  73 100  73 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  101  76 100  76 100 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      101  76  99  76 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          101  75 100  75 101 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33









000
FXUS64 KEWX 221736
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...WE EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH BASES GENERALLY IN THE 6-8K AGL RANGE.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR
CIGS FOR OUR I-35 TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z-15Z. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AT KDRT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL AREAS AFTER 23/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HOT AND DRY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH DO NOT SHOW ANY ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LIKE WE SAW ON
THURSDAY. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND HUMIDITY IS LOW.

WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 80 AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO GONZALES TO
FLORESVILLE LINE. WITH WINDS DYING OFF MORE TONIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF
CENTRAL TEXAS WEATHER. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL CONTINUE. MODELS
SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             101  75 100  75 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101  72 100  72 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    102  73 101  72 101 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  72  97  72  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  75  99  77 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  74  98  74  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  71  99  73  99 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  73 100  73 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  101  76 100  76 100 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      101  76  99  76 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          101  75 100  75 101 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33









000
FXUS64 KEWX 221736
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...WE EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH BASES GENERALLY IN THE 6-8K AGL RANGE.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR
CIGS FOR OUR I-35 TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z-15Z. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AT KDRT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL AREAS AFTER 23/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HOT AND DRY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH DO NOT SHOW ANY ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LIKE WE SAW ON
THURSDAY. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND HUMIDITY IS LOW.

WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 80 AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO GONZALES TO
FLORESVILLE LINE. WITH WINDS DYING OFF MORE TONIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF
CENTRAL TEXAS WEATHER. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL CONTINUE. MODELS
SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             101  75 100  75 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101  72 100  72 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    102  73 101  72 101 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  72  97  72  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  75  99  77 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  74  98  74  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  71  99  73  99 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  73 100  73 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  101  76 100  76 100 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      101  76  99  76 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          101  75 100  75 101 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33









000
FXUS64 KEWX 221736
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...WE EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH BASES GENERALLY IN THE 6-8K AGL RANGE.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR
CIGS FOR OUR I-35 TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z-15Z. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AT KDRT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO ALL AREAS AFTER 23/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HOT AND DRY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH DO NOT SHOW ANY ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LIKE WE SAW ON
THURSDAY. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND HUMIDITY IS LOW.

WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 80 AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO GONZALES TO
FLORESVILLE LINE. WITH WINDS DYING OFF MORE TONIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF
CENTRAL TEXAS WEATHER. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL CONTINUE. MODELS
SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             101  75 100  75 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101  72 100  72 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    102  73 101  72 101 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  72  97  72  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  75  99  77 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  74  98  74  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  71  99  73  99 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  73 100  73 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  101  76 100  76 100 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      101  76  99  76 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          101  75 100  75 101 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33








  [top]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 221735
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1235 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH FLOW ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A RELATIVELY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

YESTERDAY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA TAF
SITES...DESPITE THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WHICH IS
TYPICALLY A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
THAN YESTERDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WERE MIXING OUT INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S UPSTREAM OF AREA TAF SITES. ASSUMING
CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD NOT DEVELOP ANYWHERE NEAR AREA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ONE LINE TAFS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP STEADILY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING UNDER FULL SUN AND A BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO. MANY LOCATION SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE
CENTURY MARK OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WE WILL
RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ (30-40KTS) RETURNED OVERNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...THE NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS THIN AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ARE DISRUPTING THE SATURATION PROCESS...PREVENTING THE DECK
FROM BECOMING COMPLETELY SOLID. EVEN SO...CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
AUGUST SUN SHOULD QUICKLY EVAPORATE THE CLOUD LAYER...ALLOWING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STEADILY WEAKENING LLJ WILL REDUCE THE
INCIDENCE OF MORNING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN GRADUALLY
DECREASING SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE
OPPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH WITH ITS CUT-OFF AND NOW RESEMBLES THE
CANADIAN. BOTH ARE STILL LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WHICH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH ACCOMPANYING
RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS FRONT WOULD
SIMPLY MEAN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  78 100  78 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             101  76 100  75 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             99  75  98  74  97 /   5   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX           100  75 100  75 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          98  74  98  74  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  80  99  79  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           98  76  98  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX        100  76  98  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX           100  75  98  74  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    101  73  99  73 100 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 221735
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1235 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH FLOW ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A RELATIVELY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

YESTERDAY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA TAF
SITES...DESPITE THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WHICH IS
TYPICALLY A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
THAN YESTERDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WERE MIXING OUT INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S UPSTREAM OF AREA TAF SITES. ASSUMING
CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD NOT DEVELOP ANYWHERE NEAR AREA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ONE LINE TAFS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP STEADILY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING UNDER FULL SUN AND A BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO. MANY LOCATION SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE
CENTURY MARK OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WE WILL
RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ (30-40KTS) RETURNED OVERNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...THE NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS THIN AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ARE DISRUPTING THE SATURATION PROCESS...PREVENTING THE DECK
FROM BECOMING COMPLETELY SOLID. EVEN SO...CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
AUGUST SUN SHOULD QUICKLY EVAPORATE THE CLOUD LAYER...ALLOWING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STEADILY WEAKENING LLJ WILL REDUCE THE
INCIDENCE OF MORNING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN GRADUALLY
DECREASING SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE
OPPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH WITH ITS CUT-OFF AND NOW RESEMBLES THE
CANADIAN. BOTH ARE STILL LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WHICH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH ACCOMPANYING
RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS FRONT WOULD
SIMPLY MEAN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  78 100  78 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             101  76 100  75 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             99  75  98  74  97 /   5   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX           100  75 100  75 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          98  74  98  74  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  80  99  79  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           98  76  98  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX        100  76  98  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX           100  75  98  74  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    101  73  99  73 100 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 221735
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1235 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH FLOW ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A RELATIVELY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

YESTERDAY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA TAF
SITES...DESPITE THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WHICH IS
TYPICALLY A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
THAN YESTERDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WERE MIXING OUT INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S UPSTREAM OF AREA TAF SITES. ASSUMING
CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD NOT DEVELOP ANYWHERE NEAR AREA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ONE LINE TAFS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP STEADILY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING UNDER FULL SUN AND A BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO. MANY LOCATION SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE
CENTURY MARK OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WE WILL
RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ (30-40KTS) RETURNED OVERNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...THE NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS THIN AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ARE DISRUPTING THE SATURATION PROCESS...PREVENTING THE DECK
FROM BECOMING COMPLETELY SOLID. EVEN SO...CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
AUGUST SUN SHOULD QUICKLY EVAPORATE THE CLOUD LAYER...ALLOWING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STEADILY WEAKENING LLJ WILL REDUCE THE
INCIDENCE OF MORNING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN GRADUALLY
DECREASING SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE
OPPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH WITH ITS CUT-OFF AND NOW RESEMBLES THE
CANADIAN. BOTH ARE STILL LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WHICH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH ACCOMPANYING
RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS FRONT WOULD
SIMPLY MEAN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  78 100  78 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             101  76 100  75 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             99  75  98  74  97 /   5   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX           100  75 100  75 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          98  74  98  74  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  80  99  79  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           98  76  98  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX        100  76  98  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX           100  75  98  74  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    101  73  99  73 100 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 221735
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1235 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH FLOW ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A RELATIVELY STAGNANT
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

YESTERDAY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF THE DFW AREA TAF
SITES...DESPITE THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WHICH IS
TYPICALLY A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
THAN YESTERDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WERE MIXING OUT INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S UPSTREAM OF AREA TAF SITES. ASSUMING
CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD NOT DEVELOP ANYWHERE NEAR AREA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...ONE LINE TAFS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

CAVANAUGH


&&

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP STEADILY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING UNDER FULL SUN AND A BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO. MANY LOCATION SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE
CENTURY MARK OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WE WILL
RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ (30-40KTS) RETURNED OVERNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...THE NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS THIN AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ARE DISRUPTING THE SATURATION PROCESS...PREVENTING THE DECK
FROM BECOMING COMPLETELY SOLID. EVEN SO...CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
AUGUST SUN SHOULD QUICKLY EVAPORATE THE CLOUD LAYER...ALLOWING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STEADILY WEAKENING LLJ WILL REDUCE THE
INCIDENCE OF MORNING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN GRADUALLY
DECREASING SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE
OPPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH WITH ITS CUT-OFF AND NOW RESEMBLES THE
CANADIAN. BOTH ARE STILL LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WHICH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH ACCOMPANYING
RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS FRONT WOULD
SIMPLY MEAN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  78 100  78 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             101  76 100  75 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             99  75  98  74  97 /   5   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX           100  75 100  75 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          98  74  98  74  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  80  99  79  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           98  76  98  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX        100  76  98  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX           100  75  98  74  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    101  73  99  73 100 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMAF 221723
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a chance of thunderstorms across the area with CNM and PEQ
having the best chances.  Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions
are expected.  Winds will mainly be out of the south with gusts and
elevated winds this afternoon dimishing overnight and returning
Saturday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014/

Our area continues to be sandwiched in between a slow moving
upper low over the Desert SW and the upper ridge over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Not much change is expected today as
compared to yesterday as we still have a sfc trough axis over the
area along with disturbances moving north within the weak flow
aloft. One of these disturbances is likely helping produce heavy
rain across El Paso this morning. Most of the models have come
into a bit better agreement regarding this afternoons rain
chances. The sfc trough axis should lie somewhere across SE NM
south into the Davis Mountains. This is where the highest PoPs
will be placed, tapering down to the east. Even though storms will
likely move north they will also propagate east along outflow
boundaries. PWATS remain near 1.5" so heavy rain is a good
possibility with these storms especially as they train over the
same areas.

Convection will become more isolated and confined mostly to SE NM
and the higher terrain of W TX this weekend and most of next week as
the sfc trough retrogrades west. Temperatures will remain above
normal into next week as the ridge continues its influence over us.

Another trough is expected to dig into the Rockies early next week,
however models disagree with the strength. The ECMWF is deeper with
the trough while the GFS is more progressive and quickly builds a
ridge across the western U.S. Both models push a cold front into the
Southern Plains with precip developing along it. Will not change too
much in the extended just yet as the models continue to resolve the
pattern next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 221723
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a chance of thunderstorms across the area with CNM and PEQ
having the best chances.  Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions
are expected.  Winds will mainly be out of the south with gusts and
elevated winds this afternoon dimishing overnight and returning
Saturday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014/

Our area continues to be sandwiched in between a slow moving
upper low over the Desert SW and the upper ridge over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Not much change is expected today as
compared to yesterday as we still have a sfc trough axis over the
area along with disturbances moving north within the weak flow
aloft. One of these disturbances is likely helping produce heavy
rain across El Paso this morning. Most of the models have come
into a bit better agreement regarding this afternoons rain
chances. The sfc trough axis should lie somewhere across SE NM
south into the Davis Mountains. This is where the highest PoPs
will be placed, tapering down to the east. Even though storms will
likely move north they will also propagate east along outflow
boundaries. PWATS remain near 1.5" so heavy rain is a good
possibility with these storms especially as they train over the
same areas.

Convection will become more isolated and confined mostly to SE NM
and the higher terrain of W TX this weekend and most of next week as
the sfc trough retrogrades west. Temperatures will remain above
normal into next week as the ridge continues its influence over us.

Another trough is expected to dig into the Rockies early next week,
however models disagree with the strength. The ECMWF is deeper with
the trough while the GFS is more progressive and quickly builds a
ridge across the western U.S. Both models push a cold front into the
Southern Plains with precip developing along it. Will not change too
much in the extended just yet as the models continue to resolve the
pattern next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 221723
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a chance of thunderstorms across the area with CNM and PEQ
having the best chances.  Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions
are expected.  Winds will mainly be out of the south with gusts and
elevated winds this afternoon dimishing overnight and returning
Saturday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014/

Our area continues to be sandwiched in between a slow moving
upper low over the Desert SW and the upper ridge over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Not much change is expected today as
compared to yesterday as we still have a sfc trough axis over the
area along with disturbances moving north within the weak flow
aloft. One of these disturbances is likely helping produce heavy
rain across El Paso this morning. Most of the models have come
into a bit better agreement regarding this afternoons rain
chances. The sfc trough axis should lie somewhere across SE NM
south into the Davis Mountains. This is where the highest PoPs
will be placed, tapering down to the east. Even though storms will
likely move north they will also propagate east along outflow
boundaries. PWATS remain near 1.5" so heavy rain is a good
possibility with these storms especially as they train over the
same areas.

Convection will become more isolated and confined mostly to SE NM
and the higher terrain of W TX this weekend and most of next week as
the sfc trough retrogrades west. Temperatures will remain above
normal into next week as the ridge continues its influence over us.

Another trough is expected to dig into the Rockies early next week,
however models disagree with the strength. The ECMWF is deeper with
the trough while the GFS is more progressive and quickly builds a
ridge across the western U.S. Both models push a cold front into the
Southern Plains with precip developing along it. Will not change too
much in the extended just yet as the models continue to resolve the
pattern next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 221723
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a chance of thunderstorms across the area with CNM and PEQ
having the best chances.  Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions
are expected.  Winds will mainly be out of the south with gusts and
elevated winds this afternoon dimishing overnight and returning
Saturday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014/

Our area continues to be sandwiched in between a slow moving
upper low over the Desert SW and the upper ridge over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Not much change is expected today as
compared to yesterday as we still have a sfc trough axis over the
area along with disturbances moving north within the weak flow
aloft. One of these disturbances is likely helping produce heavy
rain across El Paso this morning. Most of the models have come
into a bit better agreement regarding this afternoons rain
chances. The sfc trough axis should lie somewhere across SE NM
south into the Davis Mountains. This is where the highest PoPs
will be placed, tapering down to the east. Even though storms will
likely move north they will also propagate east along outflow
boundaries. PWATS remain near 1.5" so heavy rain is a good
possibility with these storms especially as they train over the
same areas.

Convection will become more isolated and confined mostly to SE NM
and the higher terrain of W TX this weekend and most of next week as
the sfc trough retrogrades west. Temperatures will remain above
normal into next week as the ridge continues its influence over us.

Another trough is expected to dig into the Rockies early next week,
however models disagree with the strength. The ECMWF is deeper with
the trough while the GFS is more progressive and quickly builds a
ridge across the western U.S. Both models push a cold front into the
Southern Plains with precip developing along it. Will not change too
much in the extended just yet as the models continue to resolve the
pattern next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 221700
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1200 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the next 24
hours. South winds of 12 to 18 knots, with higher gusts, will
decrease around 00z, then increase to 8 to 14 knots by mid morning
Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Low clouds have
been trying to develop and move northwestward into the KJCT/KBBD
area early this morning, but have just not been able to make
progress this morning. So, will only show a SCT group at MVFR
heights for the southern terminals this morning. As temperatures
quickly warm up, these clouds will also quickly mix out, should
any isolated SCT or BKN CIGs develop across the TAF forecast
area. Winds will again be gusty today, with sustained south winds
at around 15 knots with gusts to between 20 and 25 knots. South
winds will diminish after sunset tonight, and skies should remain
largely clear aside from a few upper level clouds. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warm and humid weather will continue through tonight. An area of
upper level high pressure remains centered generally over
Louisiana. This ridge will remain in place through Saturday
morning. As a result, we will continue to see flow out of the
south to southeast through the upper levels across our region.
Thus, the ridge will keep a good feed of Gulf of Mexico moisture
into the area, while also suppressing rain chances. The higher
terrain of west Texas will likely again see scattered showers and
thunderstorms. While the western tip of Crockett County could see
an isolated shower or thunderstorm by late afternoon or early
evening, the ridge should keep most of this activity west, so have
kept the forecast dry. Expect another day of highs in the mid to
upper 90s, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

20

LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Thursday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas through early next week. As a result, a
hot and dry forecast is in store across the area. Highs will be
mainly 95 to 100 with lows in the 70s. Medium range models are
indicating a possible slight change in the upper level flow pattern
for middle to late next week. an upper level trough will move into
the central CONUS, which suppresses 50H heights across the Southern
Plains. Also, a cool front/wind shift will probably move south into
the Big Country by next Wednesday or Thursday. The GFS model is
mainly dry and the ECWMF model is wetter for late next week. Will
keep the forecast dry for now, but slight chance POPS will probably
have to be inserted into the extended forecast during the next
couple of days.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  96  73  97  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  71  96  72  97  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
Junction  71  94  71  95  72 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





000
FXUS64 KSJT 221700
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1200 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the next 24
hours. South winds of 12 to 18 knots, with higher gusts, will
decrease around 00z, then increase to 8 to 14 knots by mid morning
Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Low clouds have
been trying to develop and move northwestward into the KJCT/KBBD
area early this morning, but have just not been able to make
progress this morning. So, will only show a SCT group at MVFR
heights for the southern terminals this morning. As temperatures
quickly warm up, these clouds will also quickly mix out, should
any isolated SCT or BKN CIGs develop across the TAF forecast
area. Winds will again be gusty today, with sustained south winds
at around 15 knots with gusts to between 20 and 25 knots. South
winds will diminish after sunset tonight, and skies should remain
largely clear aside from a few upper level clouds. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warm and humid weather will continue through tonight. An area of
upper level high pressure remains centered generally over
Louisiana. This ridge will remain in place through Saturday
morning. As a result, we will continue to see flow out of the
south to southeast through the upper levels across our region.
Thus, the ridge will keep a good feed of Gulf of Mexico moisture
into the area, while also suppressing rain chances. The higher
terrain of west Texas will likely again see scattered showers and
thunderstorms. While the western tip of Crockett County could see
an isolated shower or thunderstorm by late afternoon or early
evening, the ridge should keep most of this activity west, so have
kept the forecast dry. Expect another day of highs in the mid to
upper 90s, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

20

LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Thursday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas through early next week. As a result, a
hot and dry forecast is in store across the area. Highs will be
mainly 95 to 100 with lows in the 70s. Medium range models are
indicating a possible slight change in the upper level flow pattern
for middle to late next week. an upper level trough will move into
the central CONUS, which suppresses 50H heights across the Southern
Plains. Also, a cool front/wind shift will probably move south into
the Big Country by next Wednesday or Thursday. The GFS model is
mainly dry and the ECWMF model is wetter for late next week. Will
keep the forecast dry for now, but slight chance POPS will probably
have to be inserted into the extended forecast during the next
couple of days.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  96  73  97  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  71  96  72  97  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
Junction  71  94  71  95  72 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBRO 221641 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1141 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...AND A MDT SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WIND TODAY. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG A WEAK SEA BREEZE
BUT THE IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE MINIMAL AND NO MENTION WAS MADE
IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DRIER AIR FEEDING INTO THE
CWA TODAY WILL LIMIT ANY AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...A PAUSE BETWEEN INFLUXES OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PLACE THE THE CWA IN A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...AND WILL PROVIDE A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE LESS THAN OVERWHELMING
AND THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...RANGING FROM THE
MID 90S EAST TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK OUT WEST. LOW
TO MID 90S WILL PREVAIL AT THE WATERFRONT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES. THE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE HOT UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY INITIATE TODAY...BUT ONLY
ISOLATED...IF ANY...SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.

TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RANCH LANDS WILL BE THE NORM...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW TEMPS NEAR
80 ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORE MARINE SHOWERS AND A FORECAST PWAT OF TWO
INCHES WILL HERALD MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...EVERY
THING ELSE SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL STILL SUPPORT 1014 TO 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
GULF...AND LOCAL WEATHER WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY. GULF HIGH PRESSURE
INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST
AREAS. DUE TO THE MOISTURE...A SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY INITIATE...
WITH GUIDANCE IN SOME CASES SHOWING A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN WITH THE SEA BREEZE. OPTED TO STAY WITH THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW HOWEVER...AS COVERAGE/DURATION OF THE SEA BREEZE EVENT
SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL MEANDER AND WEAKEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. KEPT THE DRIER
FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT GOING WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
AND PWATS BELOW 1.8 INCHES. BY MIDWEEK DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS
APPEAR WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE TROUGH/ERODING SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAKER WITH A WEST MOVING S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF
AND KEEP MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER/STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH WHICH KEEPS THE S/W
TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD AND BRINGING POP CHANCES UP
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. GOT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL SUPPORT LOW TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREAS IN THE
SHORT TERM. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT
BE OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT AND WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE WINDS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
MONDAY. MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. BRIEF PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOT EXPECTED.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/63/BIRCHFIELD/CAMPBELL





000
FXUS64 KFWD 221623
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1123 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP STEADILY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING UNDER FULL SUN AND A BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO. MANY LOCATION SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE
CENTURY MARK OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WE WILL
RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME WISPS OF STRATUS
NEAR 2000FT MAY PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NO CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED. TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ (30-40KTS) RETURNED OVERNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...THE NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS THIN AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ARE DISRUPTING THE SATURATION PROCESS...PREVENTING THE DECK
FROM BECOMING COMPLETELY SOLID. EVEN SO...CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
AUGUST SUN SHOULD QUICKLY EVAPORATE THE CLOUD LAYER...ALLOWING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STEADILY WEAKENING LLJ WILL REDUCE THE
INCIDENCE OF MORNING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN GRADUALLY
DECREASING SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE
OPPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH WITH ITS CUT-OFF AND NOW RESEMBLES THE
CANADIAN. BOTH ARE STILL LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WHICH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH ACCOMPANYING
RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS FRONT WOULD
SIMPLY MEAN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  78 100  78 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             101  76 100  75 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             99  75  98  74  97 /   5   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX           100  75 100  75 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          98  74  98  74  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  80  99  79  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           98  76  98  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX        100  76  98  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX           100  75  98  74  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    101  73  99  73 100 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

69/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 221623
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1123 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP STEADILY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING UNDER FULL SUN AND A BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO. MANY LOCATION SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE
CENTURY MARK OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WE WILL
RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME WISPS OF STRATUS
NEAR 2000FT MAY PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NO CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED. TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ (30-40KTS) RETURNED OVERNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...THE NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS THIN AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ARE DISRUPTING THE SATURATION PROCESS...PREVENTING THE DECK
FROM BECOMING COMPLETELY SOLID. EVEN SO...CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
AUGUST SUN SHOULD QUICKLY EVAPORATE THE CLOUD LAYER...ALLOWING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STEADILY WEAKENING LLJ WILL REDUCE THE
INCIDENCE OF MORNING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN GRADUALLY
DECREASING SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE
OPPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH WITH ITS CUT-OFF AND NOW RESEMBLES THE
CANADIAN. BOTH ARE STILL LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WHICH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH ACCOMPANYING
RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS FRONT WOULD
SIMPLY MEAN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  78 100  78 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             101  76 100  75 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             99  75  98  74  97 /   5   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX           100  75 100  75 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          98  74  98  74  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  80  99  79  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           98  76  98  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX        100  76  98  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX           100  75  98  74  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    101  73  99  73 100 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

69/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 221623
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1123 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP STEADILY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING UNDER FULL SUN AND A BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO. MANY LOCATION SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE
CENTURY MARK OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WE WILL
RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME WISPS OF STRATUS
NEAR 2000FT MAY PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NO CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED. TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ (30-40KTS) RETURNED OVERNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...THE NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS THIN AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ARE DISRUPTING THE SATURATION PROCESS...PREVENTING THE DECK
FROM BECOMING COMPLETELY SOLID. EVEN SO...CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
AUGUST SUN SHOULD QUICKLY EVAPORATE THE CLOUD LAYER...ALLOWING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STEADILY WEAKENING LLJ WILL REDUCE THE
INCIDENCE OF MORNING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN GRADUALLY
DECREASING SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE
OPPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH WITH ITS CUT-OFF AND NOW RESEMBLES THE
CANADIAN. BOTH ARE STILL LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WHICH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH ACCOMPANYING
RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS FRONT WOULD
SIMPLY MEAN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  78 100  78 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             101  76 100  75 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             99  75  98  74  97 /   5   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX           100  75 100  75 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          98  74  98  74  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  80  99  79  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           98  76  98  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX        100  76  98  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX           100  75  98  74  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    101  73  99  73 100 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

69/79





000
FXUS64 KFWD 221623
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1123 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP STEADILY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING UNDER FULL SUN AND A BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO. MANY LOCATION SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE
CENTURY MARK OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WE WILL
RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST LOCATIONS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 620 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME WISPS OF STRATUS
NEAR 2000FT MAY PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NO CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED. TR.92


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ (30-40KTS) RETURNED OVERNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...THE NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS THIN AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ARE DISRUPTING THE SATURATION PROCESS...PREVENTING THE DECK
FROM BECOMING COMPLETELY SOLID. EVEN SO...CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
AUGUST SUN SHOULD QUICKLY EVAPORATE THE CLOUD LAYER...ALLOWING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STEADILY WEAKENING LLJ WILL REDUCE THE
INCIDENCE OF MORNING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN GRADUALLY
DECREASING SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE
OPPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH WITH ITS CUT-OFF AND NOW RESEMBLES THE
CANADIAN. BOTH ARE STILL LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WHICH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH ACCOMPANYING
RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS FRONT WOULD
SIMPLY MEAN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 100  78 100  78 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             101  76 100  75 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             99  75  98  74  97 /   5   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX           100  75 100  75 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          98  74  98  74  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  80  99  79  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           98  76  98  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX        100  76  98  75  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX           100  75  98  74  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    101  73  99  73 100 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

69/79





000
FXUS64 KHGX 221507
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STARTING OUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS 1-2 DEGREES HIGHER. EXPECT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPANDS SLOWLY WESTWARD
THAT SETX WILL UNDERGO MORE HOT WEATHER WITH NEAR NIL RAIN
CHANCES. HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 105 TO 108 ARE ON TAP FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR 3-5 HOURS.
INLAND THE MIXING WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PULL DOWN THE
DEWPOINTS AND THE CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE 100-104 DEGREE RANGE. HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AND
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR SATURDAY ALONG THE COAST. WILL BE
WATCHING THE FORT BEND AND WHARTON COUNTIES CLOSELY WHERE HEAT
INDEX READINGS MAY FLIRT WITH 105. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY NOON AND THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY
EVENING. MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR TODAY.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST...EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MVFR IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT
KCXO...KUTS...AND KCLL THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 08Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO NEW MEXICO. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL INCH ITS WAY TOWARD
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER ARKANSAS
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH DAY TO
DAY CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SFC EACH
AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR
THE COAST. HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY SINCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FCST TO REMAIN ABOVE 105 DEGREES. A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY AND
THIS FEATURE WILL ERODE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE. PW VALUES BEGIN TO RISE AND INCREASE TO 1.85 INCHES BY 00Z
WED. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S ON TUES WHICH IS
REACHABLE BY LATE AFTN SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES ON WED/THU WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTIVE
TEMPS. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND
LEAVING A WEAKNESS ALOFT. THE WEAKNESS/LOWER HEIGHTS WILL YIELD
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. 43

MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED A BIT MORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN THE EVEN THOUGH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WERE
OCCURRING...THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE STAYED BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA.
MODEL DATA FORECASTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)     100  77  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
LA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45



000
FXUS64 KHGX 221507
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STARTING OUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS 1-2 DEGREES HIGHER. EXPECT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPANDS SLOWLY WESTWARD
THAT SETX WILL UNDERGO MORE HOT WEATHER WITH NEAR NIL RAIN
CHANCES. HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 105 TO 108 ARE ON TAP FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR 3-5 HOURS.
INLAND THE MIXING WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PULL DOWN THE
DEWPOINTS AND THE CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE 100-104 DEGREE RANGE. HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AND
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR SATURDAY ALONG THE COAST. WILL BE
WATCHING THE FORT BEND AND WHARTON COUNTIES CLOSELY WHERE HEAT
INDEX READINGS MAY FLIRT WITH 105. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY NOON AND THEN GRADUALLY CLEAR BY EARLY
EVENING. MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR TODAY.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

AVIATION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST...EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MVFR IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT
KCXO...KUTS...AND KCLL THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 08Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO NEW MEXICO. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL INCH ITS WAY TOWARD
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER ARKANSAS
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH DAY TO
DAY CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SFC EACH
AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR
THE COAST. HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY SINCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FCST TO REMAIN ABOVE 105 DEGREES. A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY AND
THIS FEATURE WILL ERODE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE. PW VALUES BEGIN TO RISE AND INCREASE TO 1.85 INCHES BY 00Z
WED. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S ON TUES WHICH IS
REACHABLE BY LATE AFTN SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES ON WED/THU WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTIVE
TEMPS. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND
LEAVING A WEAKNESS ALOFT. THE WEAKNESS/LOWER HEIGHTS WILL YIELD
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. 43

MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED A BIT MORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN THE EVEN THOUGH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WERE
OCCURRING...THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE STAYED BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA.
MODEL DATA FORECASTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)     100  77  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
LA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KAMA 221327 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
827 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES THIS MORNING
ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET, PER THE 1200 UTC KAMA RAOB.
THE LOW-LEVEL WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY LATER THIS MORNING, AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NOON.

OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE/MOISTURE FROM
FORMER HURRICANE LOWELL IN THE EAST PACIFIC GRADUALLY BECOMES TILTED
OVER THE AREA.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOME TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION AT KDHT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
THE GREATEST. CONFIDENCE ISN/T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY A MENTION
AT KAMA OR KGUY...BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS HAVE
BEEN MADE IN SEVERAL PERIODS...BASED ON EXPECTED POSITIONS OF
INSTABILITY AXES AND OCCASIONAL WEAK TO MODERATE DYNAMICS.

VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REACHING 100 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
NOTABLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY FROM RECENT WARMTH.  LOW POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  LATER PERIODS KEPT DRY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 221327 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
827 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES THIS MORNING
ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET, PER THE 1200 UTC KAMA RAOB.
THE LOW-LEVEL WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY LATER THIS MORNING, AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NOON.

OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE/MOISTURE FROM
FORMER HURRICANE LOWELL IN THE EAST PACIFIC GRADUALLY BECOMES TILTED
OVER THE AREA.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOME TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION AT KDHT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
THE GREATEST. CONFIDENCE ISN/T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY A MENTION
AT KAMA OR KGUY...BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS HAVE
BEEN MADE IN SEVERAL PERIODS...BASED ON EXPECTED POSITIONS OF
INSTABILITY AXES AND OCCASIONAL WEAK TO MODERATE DYNAMICS.

VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REACHING 100 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
NOTABLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY FROM RECENT WARMTH.  LOW POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  LATER PERIODS KEPT DRY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 221327 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
827 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES THIS MORNING
ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET, PER THE 1200 UTC KAMA RAOB.
THE LOW-LEVEL WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY LATER THIS MORNING, AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NOON.

OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE/MOISTURE FROM
FORMER HURRICANE LOWELL IN THE EAST PACIFIC GRADUALLY BECOMES TILTED
OVER THE AREA.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOME TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION AT KDHT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
THE GREATEST. CONFIDENCE ISN/T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY A MENTION
AT KAMA OR KGUY...BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS HAVE
BEEN MADE IN SEVERAL PERIODS...BASED ON EXPECTED POSITIONS OF
INSTABILITY AXES AND OCCASIONAL WEAK TO MODERATE DYNAMICS.

VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REACHING 100 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
NOTABLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY FROM RECENT WARMTH.  LOW POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  LATER PERIODS KEPT DRY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 221327 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
827 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES THIS MORNING
ALONG THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET, PER THE 1200 UTC KAMA RAOB.
THE LOW-LEVEL WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY LATER THIS MORNING, AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NOON.

OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE/MOISTURE FROM
FORMER HURRICANE LOWELL IN THE EAST PACIFIC GRADUALLY BECOMES TILTED
OVER THE AREA.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOME TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION AT KDHT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
THE GREATEST. CONFIDENCE ISN/T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY A MENTION
AT KAMA OR KGUY...BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS HAVE
BEEN MADE IN SEVERAL PERIODS...BASED ON EXPECTED POSITIONS OF
INSTABILITY AXES AND OCCASIONAL WEAK TO MODERATE DYNAMICS.

VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REACHING 100 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
NOTABLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY FROM RECENT WARMTH.  LOW POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  LATER PERIODS KEPT DRY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KCRP 221134 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
PREVAILING FROM MID MRNG THRU THE EVENING...WITH MVFR CHANCES
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF STRATUS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS MENTIONED IN
KVCT/KALI TAFS UNTIL MID MRNG. KCRP/KLRD CURRENTLY XPCTD TO REMAIN
FEW TO SCT SKY COVERAGE AND THUS VFR. STRATUS WILL MIX OUT AND
TRANSITION TO CU FIELD BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CIGS. VFR TO THEN
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHEN ADDITIONAL
STRATUS STRATUS DVLPS ALONG WITH SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS. HAVE
TEMPO TO PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE TAF PERIODS FOR
KCRP/KVCT/KALI. SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS/OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 KTS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING /STRONGEST AT KCRP/ AND THEN
DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  78  96  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         100  77 100  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  80 104  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            101  76 100  75 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  81  94  81  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          104  76 103  76 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       100  77  99  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  81  94  81  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 221134 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
PREVAILING FROM MID MRNG THRU THE EVENING...WITH MVFR CHANCES
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF STRATUS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS MENTIONED IN
KVCT/KALI TAFS UNTIL MID MRNG. KCRP/KLRD CURRENTLY XPCTD TO REMAIN
FEW TO SCT SKY COVERAGE AND THUS VFR. STRATUS WILL MIX OUT AND
TRANSITION TO CU FIELD BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CIGS. VFR TO THEN
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHEN ADDITIONAL
STRATUS STRATUS DVLPS ALONG WITH SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS. HAVE
TEMPO TO PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE TAF PERIODS FOR
KCRP/KVCT/KALI. SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS/OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 KTS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING /STRONGEST AT KCRP/ AND THEN
DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  78  96  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         100  77 100  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  80 104  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            101  76 100  75 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  81  94  81  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          104  76 103  76 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       100  77  99  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  81  94  81  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 221134 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
PREVAILING FROM MID MRNG THRU THE EVENING...WITH MVFR CHANCES
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF STRATUS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS MENTIONED IN
KVCT/KALI TAFS UNTIL MID MRNG. KCRP/KLRD CURRENTLY XPCTD TO REMAIN
FEW TO SCT SKY COVERAGE AND THUS VFR. STRATUS WILL MIX OUT AND
TRANSITION TO CU FIELD BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CIGS. VFR TO THEN
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHEN ADDITIONAL
STRATUS STRATUS DVLPS ALONG WITH SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS. HAVE
TEMPO TO PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE TAF PERIODS FOR
KCRP/KVCT/KALI. SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS/OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 KTS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING /STRONGEST AT KCRP/ AND THEN
DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  78  96  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         100  77 100  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  80 104  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            101  76 100  75 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  81  94  81  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          104  76 103  76 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       100  77  99  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  81  94  81  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 221134 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR
PREVAILING FROM MID MRNG THRU THE EVENING...WITH MVFR CHANCES
RETURNING BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF STRATUS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS MENTIONED IN
KVCT/KALI TAFS UNTIL MID MRNG. KCRP/KLRD CURRENTLY XPCTD TO REMAIN
FEW TO SCT SKY COVERAGE AND THUS VFR. STRATUS WILL MIX OUT AND
TRANSITION TO CU FIELD BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CIGS. VFR TO THEN
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHEN ADDITIONAL
STRATUS STRATUS DVLPS ALONG WITH SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS. HAVE
TEMPO TO PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE TAF PERIODS FOR
KCRP/KVCT/KALI. SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS/OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 KTS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING /STRONGEST AT KCRP/ AND THEN
DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  78  96  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         100  77 100  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  80 104  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            101  76 100  75 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  81  94  81  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          104  76 103  76 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       100  77  99  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  81  94  81  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KEWX 221133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS THOUGH MAINLY SCT-BKN...EXCEPT VFR ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING LIFTING
TO FEW-SCT VFR LEVEL CUMULUS BY LATE MORNING. STRATUS WITH MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STRATUS LIFTS TO
FEW-SCT VFR LEVEL CUMULUS AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. S TO SE
WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS TODAY DECREASES TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASES TO 10 TO 15 KTS SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HOT AND DRY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH DO NOT SHOW ANY ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LIKE WE SAW ON
THURSDAY. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND HUMIDITY IS LOW.

WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 80 AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO GONZALES TO
FLORESVILLE LINE. WITH WINDS DYING OFF MORE TONIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF
CENTRAL TEXAS WEATHER. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL CONTINUE. MODELS
SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             101  75 100  75 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101  72 100  72 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    102  73 101  72 101 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  72  97  72  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  75  99  77 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  74  98  74  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  71  99  73  99 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  73 100  73 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  101  76 100  76 100 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      101  76  99  76 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          101  75 100  75 101 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...
LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 221133
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS THOUGH MAINLY SCT-BKN...EXCEPT VFR ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING LIFTING
TO FEW-SCT VFR LEVEL CUMULUS BY LATE MORNING. STRATUS WITH MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STRATUS LIFTS TO
FEW-SCT VFR LEVEL CUMULUS AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. S TO SE
WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS TODAY DECREASES TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASES TO 10 TO 15 KTS SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HOT AND DRY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH DO NOT SHOW ANY ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LIKE WE SAW ON
THURSDAY. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND HUMIDITY IS LOW.

WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 80 AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO GONZALES TO
FLORESVILLE LINE. WITH WINDS DYING OFF MORE TONIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF
CENTRAL TEXAS WEATHER. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL CONTINUE. MODELS
SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             101  75 100  75 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101  72 100  72 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    102  73 101  72 101 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  72  97  72  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  75  99  77 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  74  98  74  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  71  99  73  99 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  73 100  73 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  101  76 100  76 100 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      101  76  99  76 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          101  75 100  75 101 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...
LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12





000
FXUS64 KSJT 221132
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Low clouds have
been trying to develop and move northwestward into the KJCT/KBBD
area early this morning, but have just not been able to make
progress this morning. So, will only show a SCT group at MVFR
heights for the southern terminals this morning. As temperatures
quickly warm up, these clouds will also quickly mix out, should
any isolated SCT or BKN CIGs develop across the TAF forecast
area. Winds will again be gusty today, with sustained south winds
at around 15 knots with gusts to between 20 and 25 knots. South
winds will diminish after sunset tonight, and skies should remain
largely clear aside from a few upper level clouds. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warm and humid weather will continue through tonight. An area of
upper level high pressure remains centered generally over
Louisiana. This ridge will remain in place through Saturday
morning. As a result, we will continue to see flow out of the
south to southeast through the upper levels across our region.
Thus, the ridge will keep a good feed of Gulf of Mexico moisture
into the area, while also suppressing rain chances. The higher
terrain of west Texas will likely again see scattered showers and
thunderstorms. While the western tip of Crockett County could see
an isolated shower or thunderstorm by late afternoon or early
evening, the ridge should keep most of this activity west, so have
kept the forecast dry. Expect another day of highs in the mid to
upper 90s, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

20

LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Thursday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas through early next week. As a result, a
hot and dry forecast is in store across the area. Highs will be
mainly 95 to 100 with lows in the 70s. Medium range models are
indicating a possible slight change in the upper level flow pattern
for middle to late next week. an upper level trough will move into
the central CONUS, which suppresses 50H heights across the Southern
Plains. Also, a cool front/wind shift will probably move south into
the Big Country by next Wednesday or Thursday. The GFS model is
mainly dry and the ECWMF model is wetter for late next week. Will
keep the forecast dry for now, but slight chance POPS will probably
have to be inserted into the extended forecast during the next
couple of days.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  72  96  73  97 /   0   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  95  71  96  72  97 /   5   0   5   5   5
Junction  94  71  94  71  95 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 221132
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Low clouds have
been trying to develop and move northwestward into the KJCT/KBBD
area early this morning, but have just not been able to make
progress this morning. So, will only show a SCT group at MVFR
heights for the southern terminals this morning. As temperatures
quickly warm up, these clouds will also quickly mix out, should
any isolated SCT or BKN CIGs develop across the TAF forecast
area. Winds will again be gusty today, with sustained south winds
at around 15 knots with gusts to between 20 and 25 knots. South
winds will diminish after sunset tonight, and skies should remain
largely clear aside from a few upper level clouds. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warm and humid weather will continue through tonight. An area of
upper level high pressure remains centered generally over
Louisiana. This ridge will remain in place through Saturday
morning. As a result, we will continue to see flow out of the
south to southeast through the upper levels across our region.
Thus, the ridge will keep a good feed of Gulf of Mexico moisture
into the area, while also suppressing rain chances. The higher
terrain of west Texas will likely again see scattered showers and
thunderstorms. While the western tip of Crockett County could see
an isolated shower or thunderstorm by late afternoon or early
evening, the ridge should keep most of this activity west, so have
kept the forecast dry. Expect another day of highs in the mid to
upper 90s, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

20

LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Thursday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas through early next week. As a result, a
hot and dry forecast is in store across the area. Highs will be
mainly 95 to 100 with lows in the 70s. Medium range models are
indicating a possible slight change in the upper level flow pattern
for middle to late next week. an upper level trough will move into
the central CONUS, which suppresses 50H heights across the Southern
Plains. Also, a cool front/wind shift will probably move south into
the Big Country by next Wednesday or Thursday. The GFS model is
mainly dry and the ECWMF model is wetter for late next week. Will
keep the forecast dry for now, but slight chance POPS will probably
have to be inserted into the extended forecast during the next
couple of days.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  72  96  73  97 /   0   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  95  71  96  72  97 /   5   0   5   5   5
Junction  94  71  94  71  95 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLUB 221127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
WEST OF KLBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN STORMS REACHING THE KLBB
TERMINAL AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT UNTIL BETTER
CONFIDENCE CAN BE ACHIEVED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIVE ANOTHER DAY. A
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE ON WHETHER WE WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS TROUGH AS ITS JET
MAX WILL BE PLACED WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. WE STILL STILL
LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION UNDERNEATH A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO
THE EAST. CONVENTION WILL BE WITHIN THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AND
THE RAP INDICATES A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE TROUGH AXIS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE MORE TO THE EAST IF THE RAP IS MORE
CORRECT IN ITS SOLUTION ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST ON THE CAPROCK.

A NOTABLE DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL OCCUR TODAY
MOSTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I27 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE DUE TO DRIER
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AT MID LEVELS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
CHANGE FOR AREAS WEST OF I27 WITH CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITHIN THE PRESSURE TROUGH WHERE THE HIGHEST
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHERMORE...STORM
PROPAGATION VECTORS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE TRAINING
OF CONVECTION AND REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH
CLOUD BASES.

LONG TERM...
A THINNING BAND OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH.
LIMITED IF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS EXPECTED THOUGH MODEST SURFACE
TROUGHING AND STRONG HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW AFTERNOON
STORMS IN AND NEAR THAT TROUGH. HEIGHTS WILL REBUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE MONSOON FLOW IMPROVING AGAIN...THOUGH SHIFTING BACK
TO THE WEST. UNCLEAR JUST YET IF THIS WILL REMAIN NEAR ENOUGH OUR
WESTERN BORDER AREAS FOR MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INVOLVING THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE
PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER. BOTH AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING ARE MUCH IN QUESTION...THUS PRECLUDING THUNDER MENTION AS
WELL FOR NOW. BUT THIS MAY YET REPRESENT OUR NEXT REAL OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN HANGING
ACROSS NORTHERN STATES COULD SAG INTO OUR AREA. IN THE DAYS AHEAD
WE WILL WATCH FOR THOSE TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES TO BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  62  92 /  30  40  20  20  20
TULIA         94  65  95  65  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     93  65  94  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     94  64  93  64  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       95  67  96  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  65  94  65  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    95  65  95  66  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  70 100  72  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          97  68  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  71 100  71  99 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 221127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
WEST OF KLBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN STORMS REACHING THE KLBB
TERMINAL AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT UNTIL BETTER
CONFIDENCE CAN BE ACHIEVED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIVE ANOTHER DAY. A
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE ON WHETHER WE WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS TROUGH AS ITS JET
MAX WILL BE PLACED WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. WE STILL STILL
LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION UNDERNEATH A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO
THE EAST. CONVENTION WILL BE WITHIN THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AND
THE RAP INDICATES A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE TROUGH AXIS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE MORE TO THE EAST IF THE RAP IS MORE
CORRECT IN ITS SOLUTION ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST ON THE CAPROCK.

A NOTABLE DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL OCCUR TODAY
MOSTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I27 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE DUE TO DRIER
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AT MID LEVELS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
CHANGE FOR AREAS WEST OF I27 WITH CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITHIN THE PRESSURE TROUGH WHERE THE HIGHEST
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHERMORE...STORM
PROPAGATION VECTORS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE TRAINING
OF CONVECTION AND REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH
CLOUD BASES.

LONG TERM...
A THINNING BAND OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH.
LIMITED IF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS EXPECTED THOUGH MODEST SURFACE
TROUGHING AND STRONG HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW AFTERNOON
STORMS IN AND NEAR THAT TROUGH. HEIGHTS WILL REBUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE MONSOON FLOW IMPROVING AGAIN...THOUGH SHIFTING BACK
TO THE WEST. UNCLEAR JUST YET IF THIS WILL REMAIN NEAR ENOUGH OUR
WESTERN BORDER AREAS FOR MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INVOLVING THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE
PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER. BOTH AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING ARE MUCH IN QUESTION...THUS PRECLUDING THUNDER MENTION AS
WELL FOR NOW. BUT THIS MAY YET REPRESENT OUR NEXT REAL OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN HANGING
ACROSS NORTHERN STATES COULD SAG INTO OUR AREA. IN THE DAYS AHEAD
WE WILL WATCH FOR THOSE TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES TO BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  62  92 /  30  40  20  20  20
TULIA         94  65  95  65  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     93  65  94  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     94  64  93  64  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       95  67  96  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  65  94  65  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    95  65  95  66  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  70 100  72  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          97  68  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  71 100  71  99 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 221127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
WEST OF KLBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN STORMS REACHING THE KLBB
TERMINAL AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT UNTIL BETTER
CONFIDENCE CAN BE ACHIEVED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIVE ANOTHER DAY. A
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE ON WHETHER WE WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS TROUGH AS ITS JET
MAX WILL BE PLACED WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. WE STILL STILL
LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION UNDERNEATH A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO
THE EAST. CONVENTION WILL BE WITHIN THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AND
THE RAP INDICATES A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE TROUGH AXIS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE MORE TO THE EAST IF THE RAP IS MORE
CORRECT IN ITS SOLUTION ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST ON THE CAPROCK.

A NOTABLE DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL OCCUR TODAY
MOSTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I27 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE DUE TO DRIER
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AT MID LEVELS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
CHANGE FOR AREAS WEST OF I27 WITH CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITHIN THE PRESSURE TROUGH WHERE THE HIGHEST
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHERMORE...STORM
PROPAGATION VECTORS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE TRAINING
OF CONVECTION AND REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH
CLOUD BASES.

LONG TERM...
A THINNING BAND OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH.
LIMITED IF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS EXPECTED THOUGH MODEST SURFACE
TROUGHING AND STRONG HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW AFTERNOON
STORMS IN AND NEAR THAT TROUGH. HEIGHTS WILL REBUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE MONSOON FLOW IMPROVING AGAIN...THOUGH SHIFTING BACK
TO THE WEST. UNCLEAR JUST YET IF THIS WILL REMAIN NEAR ENOUGH OUR
WESTERN BORDER AREAS FOR MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INVOLVING THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE
PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER. BOTH AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING ARE MUCH IN QUESTION...THUS PRECLUDING THUNDER MENTION AS
WELL FOR NOW. BUT THIS MAY YET REPRESENT OUR NEXT REAL OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN HANGING
ACROSS NORTHERN STATES COULD SAG INTO OUR AREA. IN THE DAYS AHEAD
WE WILL WATCH FOR THOSE TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES TO BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  62  92 /  30  40  20  20  20
TULIA         94  65  95  65  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     93  65  94  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     94  64  93  64  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       95  67  96  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  65  94  65  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    95  65  95  66  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  70 100  72  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          97  68  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  71 100  71  99 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 221127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
WEST OF KLBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN STORMS REACHING THE KLBB
TERMINAL AND WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT UNTIL BETTER
CONFIDENCE CAN BE ACHIEVED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIVE ANOTHER DAY. A
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE ON WHETHER WE WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS TROUGH AS ITS JET
MAX WILL BE PLACED WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. WE STILL STILL
LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION UNDERNEATH A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO
THE EAST. CONVENTION WILL BE WITHIN THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AND
THE RAP INDICATES A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE TROUGH AXIS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE MORE TO THE EAST IF THE RAP IS MORE
CORRECT IN ITS SOLUTION ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST ON THE CAPROCK.

A NOTABLE DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL OCCUR TODAY
MOSTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I27 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE DUE TO DRIER
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AT MID LEVELS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
CHANGE FOR AREAS WEST OF I27 WITH CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITHIN THE PRESSURE TROUGH WHERE THE HIGHEST
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHERMORE...STORM
PROPAGATION VECTORS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE TRAINING
OF CONVECTION AND REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH
CLOUD BASES.

LONG TERM...
A THINNING BAND OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH.
LIMITED IF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS EXPECTED THOUGH MODEST SURFACE
TROUGHING AND STRONG HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW AFTERNOON
STORMS IN AND NEAR THAT TROUGH. HEIGHTS WILL REBUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE MONSOON FLOW IMPROVING AGAIN...THOUGH SHIFTING BACK
TO THE WEST. UNCLEAR JUST YET IF THIS WILL REMAIN NEAR ENOUGH OUR
WESTERN BORDER AREAS FOR MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INVOLVING THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE
PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER. BOTH AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING ARE MUCH IN QUESTION...THUS PRECLUDING THUNDER MENTION AS
WELL FOR NOW. BUT THIS MAY YET REPRESENT OUR NEXT REAL OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN HANGING
ACROSS NORTHERN STATES COULD SAG INTO OUR AREA. IN THE DAYS AHEAD
WE WILL WATCH FOR THOSE TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES TO BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  62  92 /  30  40  20  20  20
TULIA         94  65  95  65  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     93  65  94  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     94  64  93  64  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       95  67  96  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  65  94  65  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    95  65  95  66  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  70 100  72  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          97  68  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  71 100  71  99 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KBRO 221127
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
627 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...AND A MDT SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WIND TODAY. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG A WEAK SEA BREEZE
BUT THE IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE MINIMAL AND NO MENTION WAS MADE
IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DRIER AIR FEEDING INTO THE
CWA TODAY WILL LIMIT ANY AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...A PAUSE BETWEEN INFLUXES OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PLACE THE THE CWA IN A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...AND WILL PROVIDE A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE LESS THAN OVERWHELMING
AND THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...RANGING FROM THE
MID 90S EAST TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK OUT WEST. LOW
TO MID 90S WILL PREVAIL AT THE WATERFRONT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES. THE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE HOT UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY INITIATE TODAY...BUT ONLY
ISOLATED...IF ANY...SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.

TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RANCH LANDS WILL BE THE NORM...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW TEMPS NEAR
80 ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORE MARINE SHOWERS AND A FORECAST PWAT OF TWO
INCHES WILL HERALD MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...EVERY
THING ELSE SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL STILL SUPPORT 1014 TO 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
GULF...AND LOCAL WEATHER WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY. GULF HIGH PRESSURE
INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST
AREAS. DUE TO THE MOISTURE...A SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY INITIATE...
WITH GUIDANCE IN SOME CASES SHOWING A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN WITH THE SEA BREEZE. OPTED TO STAY WITH THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW HOWEVER...AS COVERAGE/DURATION OF THE SEA BREEZE EVENT
SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL MEANDER AND WEAKEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. KEPT THE DRIER
FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT GOING WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
AND PWATS BELOW 1.8 INCHES. BY MIDWEEK DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS
APPEAR WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE TROUGH/ERODING SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAKER WITH A WEST MOVING S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF
AND KEEP MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER/STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH WHICH KEEPS THE S/W
TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD AND BRINGING POP CHANCES UP
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. GOT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL SUPPORT LOW TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREAS IN THE
SHORT TERM. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT
BE OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT AND WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE WINDS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
MONDAY. MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. BRIEF PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55





000
FXUS64 KBRO 221127
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
627 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...AND A MDT SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WIND TODAY. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG A WEAK SEA BREEZE
BUT THE IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE MINIMAL AND NO MENTION WAS MADE
IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DRIER AIR FEEDING INTO THE
CWA TODAY WILL LIMIT ANY AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...A PAUSE BETWEEN INFLUXES OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PLACE THE THE CWA IN A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...AND WILL PROVIDE A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE LESS THAN OVERWHELMING
AND THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...RANGING FROM THE
MID 90S EAST TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK OUT WEST. LOW
TO MID 90S WILL PREVAIL AT THE WATERFRONT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES. THE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE HOT UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY INITIATE TODAY...BUT ONLY
ISOLATED...IF ANY...SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.

TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RANCH LANDS WILL BE THE NORM...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW TEMPS NEAR
80 ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORE MARINE SHOWERS AND A FORECAST PWAT OF TWO
INCHES WILL HERALD MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...EVERY
THING ELSE SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL STILL SUPPORT 1014 TO 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
GULF...AND LOCAL WEATHER WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY. GULF HIGH PRESSURE
INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST
AREAS. DUE TO THE MOISTURE...A SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY INITIATE...
WITH GUIDANCE IN SOME CASES SHOWING A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN WITH THE SEA BREEZE. OPTED TO STAY WITH THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW HOWEVER...AS COVERAGE/DURATION OF THE SEA BREEZE EVENT
SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL MEANDER AND WEAKEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. KEPT THE DRIER
FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT GOING WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
AND PWATS BELOW 1.8 INCHES. BY MIDWEEK DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS
APPEAR WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE TROUGH/ERODING SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAKER WITH A WEST MOVING S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF
AND KEEP MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER/STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH WHICH KEEPS THE S/W
TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD AND BRINGING POP CHANCES UP
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. GOT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL SUPPORT LOW TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREAS IN THE
SHORT TERM. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT
BE OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT AND WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE WINDS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
MONDAY. MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. BRIEF PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55






000
FXUS64 KFWD 221120
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
620 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME WISPS OF STRATUS
NEAR 2000FT MAY PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NO CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED. TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ (30-40KTS) RETURNED OVERNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...THE NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS THIN AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ARE DISRUPTING THE SATURATION PROCESS...PREVENTING THE DECK
FROM BECOMING COMPLETELY SOLID. EVEN SO...CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
AUGUST SUN SHOULD QUICKLY EVAPORATE THE CLOUD LAYER...ALLOWING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STEADILY WEAKENING LLJ WILL REDUCE THE
INCIDENCE OF MORNING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN GRADUALLY
DECREASING SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE
OPPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH WITH ITS CUT-OFF AND NOW RESEMBLES THE
CANADIAN. BOTH ARE STILL LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WHICH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH ACCOMPANYING
RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS FRONT WOULD
SIMPLY MEAN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78 100  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             98  75  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  75 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            98  80  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  76  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         99  76  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 221120
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
620 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME WISPS OF STRATUS
NEAR 2000FT MAY PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NO CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED. TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ (30-40KTS) RETURNED OVERNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...THE NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS THIN AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ARE DISRUPTING THE SATURATION PROCESS...PREVENTING THE DECK
FROM BECOMING COMPLETELY SOLID. EVEN SO...CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
AUGUST SUN SHOULD QUICKLY EVAPORATE THE CLOUD LAYER...ALLOWING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STEADILY WEAKENING LLJ WILL REDUCE THE
INCIDENCE OF MORNING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN GRADUALLY
DECREASING SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE
OPPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH WITH ITS CUT-OFF AND NOW RESEMBLES THE
CANADIAN. BOTH ARE STILL LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WHICH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH ACCOMPANYING
RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS FRONT WOULD
SIMPLY MEAN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78 100  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             98  75  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  75 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            98  80  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  76  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         99  76  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 221120
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
620 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME WISPS OF STRATUS
NEAR 2000FT MAY PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NO CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED. TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ (30-40KTS) RETURNED OVERNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...THE NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS THIN AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ARE DISRUPTING THE SATURATION PROCESS...PREVENTING THE DECK
FROM BECOMING COMPLETELY SOLID. EVEN SO...CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
AUGUST SUN SHOULD QUICKLY EVAPORATE THE CLOUD LAYER...ALLOWING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STEADILY WEAKENING LLJ WILL REDUCE THE
INCIDENCE OF MORNING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN GRADUALLY
DECREASING SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE
OPPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH WITH ITS CUT-OFF AND NOW RESEMBLES THE
CANADIAN. BOTH ARE STILL LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WHICH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH ACCOMPANYING
RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS FRONT WOULD
SIMPLY MEAN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78 100  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             98  75  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  75 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            98  80  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  76  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         99  76  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KFWD 221120
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
620 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME WISPS OF STRATUS
NEAR 2000FT MAY PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NO CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED. TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ (30-40KTS) RETURNED OVERNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...THE NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS THIN AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ARE DISRUPTING THE SATURATION PROCESS...PREVENTING THE DECK
FROM BECOMING COMPLETELY SOLID. EVEN SO...CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
AUGUST SUN SHOULD QUICKLY EVAPORATE THE CLOUD LAYER...ALLOWING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STEADILY WEAKENING LLJ WILL REDUCE THE
INCIDENCE OF MORNING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN GRADUALLY
DECREASING SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE
OPPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH WITH ITS CUT-OFF AND NOW RESEMBLES THE
CANADIAN. BOTH ARE STILL LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WHICH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH ACCOMPANYING
RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS FRONT WOULD
SIMPLY MEAN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78 100  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             98  75  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  75 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            98  80  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  76  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         99  76  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /







000
FXUS64 KAMA 221117
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
617 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOME TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION AT KDHT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
THE GREATEST. CONFIDENCE ISN/T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY A MENTION
AT KAMA OR KGUY...BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS HAVE
BEEN MADE IN SEVERAL PERIODS...BASED ON EXPECTED POSITIONS OF
INSTABILITY AXES AND OCCASIONAL WEAK TO MODERATE DYNAMICS.

VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REACHING 100 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
NOTABLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY FROM RECENT WARMTH.  LOW POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  LATER PERIODS KEPT DRY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 221117
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
617 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOME TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION AT KDHT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
THE GREATEST. CONFIDENCE ISN/T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY A MENTION
AT KAMA OR KGUY...BUT THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS HAVE
BEEN MADE IN SEVERAL PERIODS...BASED ON EXPECTED POSITIONS OF
INSTABILITY AXES AND OCCASIONAL WEAK TO MODERATE DYNAMICS.

VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REACHING 100 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
NOTABLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY FROM RECENT WARMTH.  LOW POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  LATER PERIODS KEPT DRY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/03





000
FXUS64 KHGX 221107
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
607 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST...EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MVFR IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT
KCXO...KUTS...AND KCLL THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 08Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO NEW MEXICO. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL INCH ITS WAY TOWARD
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER ARKANSAS
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH DAY TO
DAY CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SFC EACH
AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR
THE COAST. HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY SINCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FCST TO REMAIN ABOVE 105 DEGREES. A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY AND
THIS FEATURE WILL ERODE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE. PW VALUES BEGIN TO RISE AND INCREASE TO 1.85 INCHES BY 00Z
WED. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S ON TUES WHICH IS
REACHABLE BY LATE AFTN SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES ON WED/THU WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTIVE
TEMPS. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND
LEAVING A WEAKNESS ALOFT. THE WEAKNESS/LOWER HEIGHTS WILL YIELD
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. 43

MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED A BIT MORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN THE EVEN THOUGH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WERE
OCCURRING...THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE STAYED BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA.
MODEL DATA FORECASTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  77  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
LA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40



000
FXUS64 KHGX 221107
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
607 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SE TX FROM THE EAST...EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. MVFR IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT
KCXO...KUTS...AND KCLL THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 08Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO NEW MEXICO. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL INCH ITS WAY TOWARD
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER ARKANSAS
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH DAY TO
DAY CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SFC EACH
AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR
THE COAST. HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY SINCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FCST TO REMAIN ABOVE 105 DEGREES. A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY AND
THIS FEATURE WILL ERODE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE. PW VALUES BEGIN TO RISE AND INCREASE TO 1.85 INCHES BY 00Z
WED. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S ON TUES WHICH IS
REACHABLE BY LATE AFTN SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES ON WED/THU WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTIVE
TEMPS. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND
LEAVING A WEAKNESS ALOFT. THE WEAKNESS/LOWER HEIGHTS WILL YIELD
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. 43

MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED A BIT MORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN THE EVEN THOUGH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WERE
OCCURRING...THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE STAYED BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA.
MODEL DATA FORECASTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  77  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
LA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40




000
FXUS64 KMAF 221101
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A low level jet over the Permian Basin is lifting to the northeast
with KMAF radar indicating low level winds diminishing.  Therefore,
will not carry low level wind shear at KMAF.  VFR conditions will
prevail areawide through the period.  Thunderstorms will develop
again this afternoon/evening, but probabilities are too low to
carry at any TAF sites.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014/

Our area continues to be sandwiched in between a slow moving
upper low over the Desert SW and the upper ridge over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Not much change is expected today as
compared to yesterday as we still have a sfc trough axis over the
area along with disturbances moving north within the weak flow
aloft. One of these disturbances is likely helping produce heavy
rain across El Paso this morning. Most of the models have come
into a bit better agreement regarding this afternoons rain
chances. The sfc trough axis should lie somewhere across SE NM
south into the Davis Mountains. This is where the highest PoPs
will be placed, tapering down to the east. Even though storms will
likely move north they will also propagate east along outflow
boundaries. PWATS remain near 1.5" so heavy rain is a good
possibility with these storms especially as they train over the
same areas.

Convection will become more isolated and confined mostly to SE NM
and the higher terrain of W TX this weekend and most of next week as
the sfc trough retrogrades west. Temperatures will remain above
normal into next week as the ridge continues its influence over us.

Another trough is expected to dig into the Rockies early next week,
however models disagree with the strength. The ECMWF is deeper with
the trough while the GFS is more progressive and quickly builds a
ridge across the western U.S. Both models push a cold front into the
Southern Plains with precip developing along it. Will not change too
much in the extended just yet as the models continue to resolve the
pattern next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 221101
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A low level jet over the Permian Basin is lifting to the northeast
with KMAF radar indicating low level winds diminishing.  Therefore,
will not carry low level wind shear at KMAF.  VFR conditions will
prevail areawide through the period.  Thunderstorms will develop
again this afternoon/evening, but probabilities are too low to
carry at any TAF sites.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014/

Our area continues to be sandwiched in between a slow moving
upper low over the Desert SW and the upper ridge over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Not much change is expected today as
compared to yesterday as we still have a sfc trough axis over the
area along with disturbances moving north within the weak flow
aloft. One of these disturbances is likely helping produce heavy
rain across El Paso this morning. Most of the models have come
into a bit better agreement regarding this afternoons rain
chances. The sfc trough axis should lie somewhere across SE NM
south into the Davis Mountains. This is where the highest PoPs
will be placed, tapering down to the east. Even though storms will
likely move north they will also propagate east along outflow
boundaries. PWATS remain near 1.5" so heavy rain is a good
possibility with these storms especially as they train over the
same areas.

Convection will become more isolated and confined mostly to SE NM
and the higher terrain of W TX this weekend and most of next week as
the sfc trough retrogrades west. Temperatures will remain above
normal into next week as the ridge continues its influence over us.

Another trough is expected to dig into the Rockies early next week,
however models disagree with the strength. The ECMWF is deeper with
the trough while the GFS is more progressive and quickly builds a
ridge across the western U.S. Both models push a cold front into the
Southern Plains with precip developing along it. Will not change too
much in the extended just yet as the models continue to resolve the
pattern next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221031
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
431 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...COMBINED WITH AN UPPER HIGH
OVER THE GULF STATES IS PRODUCING A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS
BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP OVER THE BORDERLAND THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT TODAY. THE UPPER LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY TAPER OFF THE SHOWERS FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. EXPECT JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
SOME MOISTURE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST AND DRIER FOR MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL
TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT THEN WARM BACK TO NORMAL BY
SUNDAY INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW OVER SW ARIZONA AND MAXIMIZING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. TPW PRODUCT
SHOWS PW`S AS HIGH AS 1.5" MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS
FINALLY STARTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE LAST NIGHT AND ARE
GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD. MOST UNSTABLE AREA SEEMS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM. MOST
OF THEM DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE CWA BUT A FEW LINGER ACROSS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DEEP CLOUDINESS WILL OBVIOUSLY HINDER WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY BUT PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS OF 78-82
WHICH I THINK MOST PLACES CAN REACH...SO EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH
LATER TODAY WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING N-S OVER THE ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FROM ABOUT EL PASO NORTHWARD
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TROUGH COULD INTENSIFY SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF IT AND WILL
BEGIN DRYING OUT BEHIND IT. SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE WEST BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND IN THE EAST BY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS ACTIVE. THE EAST REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THE
TROUGH AND PW`S STILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE AN INCH SO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...MAINLY EAST OF EL PASO. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOUT 8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS/RAIN
BUT BEGIN WARMING UP SATURDAY AS THE BORDERLAND SHEDS IT`S CLOUD
COVER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS MAIN UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF STATES RIDGES OUT WESTWARD
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA. MODELS SHOW MODEST AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER THE AREA (ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OVER THE CWA) SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR ALL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BREAKS OFF HIGH CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL TURN OUR UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST
AND KEEP MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA. GFS STILL
SHOWS AIRMASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT PW`S ONLY AROUND 1" AND DEW POINTS
BACK TO 40S TO 50. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND LIMITED
MOSTLY TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z...
BKN-OVC150 LAYERS 300. SCATTERED -SHRA OVC100 WITH EMBEDDED 3-5SM
TSRA BKN090CB TOPS 420. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY EAST OF DEMING. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW OVER SW ARIZONA CONTINUES TO STREAM MOISTURE UP OVER THE
FIRE ZONES IN MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AND
SHOULD SPREAD TO ALL ZONES THROUGH THIS MORNING. SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
MOST OF TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH BEGIN MOVING THROUGH NEW MEXICO. DRYING WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHWEST FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR...MAY LIMIT ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL TODAY WITH THE RAIN BUT THEN WARM
BACK TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MIN RH`S TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM 40-50% LOWLANDS AND FALL TO 30-35% THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MIN RH`S FOR THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE
FROM 45-55% TODAY AND FALL TO 35-45% THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAINES
INDICES VERY LOW (2 OR 3) TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 80  71  89  72  92 /  70  40  20   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           75  69  87  68  89 /  50  50  30  10  10
LAS CRUCES              78  68  87  67  91 /  70  40  20   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              77  67  90  66  87 /  80  50  20   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              61  50  68  48  71 /  90  60  30  10  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   76  67  83  66  89 /  60  30  10   0  10
SILVER CITY             75  59  81  58  83 /  40  20   0   0  10
DEMING                  79  67  86  66  91 /  40  30  10   0  10
LORDSBURG               79  66  85  65  90 /  30  20   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      79  71  88  71  92 /  70  40  20   0  10
DELL CITY               80  67  89  69  93 /  60  50  30  10  10
FORT HANCOCK            78  70  92  71  94 /  60  50  30  10  10
LOMA LINDA              78  67  84  67  87 /  70  50  30  10  10
FABENS                  79  68  91  69  92 /  70  40  30   0  10
SANTA TERESA            79  70  88  68  91 /  70  40  20   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          79  69  87  68  91 /  60  50  20   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           77  68  86  67  91 /  60  40  20   0  10
HATCH                   78  67  87  66  91 /  60  40  10   0  10
COLUMBUS                78  69  87  68  92 /  50  30  10   0  10
OROGRANDE               78  69  85  68  88 /  70  50  20   0  10
MAYHILL                 65  55  80  54  80 /  80  60  30  10  30
MESCALERO               68  55  79  54  79 /  80  50  20  10  30
TIMBERON                69  56  76  55  78 /  90  50  30  10  30
WINSTON                 71  53  81  53  83 /  50  20  10   0  30
HILLSBORO               76  62  84  62  88 /  50  30  10   0  10
SPACEPORT               76  67  84  66  88 /  60  40  10   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            74  55  80  58  84 /  40  20  10   0  30
HURLEY                  76  61  82  61  84 /  40  20   0   0  10
CLIFF                   78  54  82  53  85 /  30  20   0   0  10
MULE CREEK              77  50  79  51  83 /  40  20   0   0  10
FAYWOOD                 76  61  84  61  90 /  40  20  10   0  10
ANIMAS                  77  66  85  65  89 /  30  20   0   0  10
HACHITA                 79  66  86  65  90 /  30  20  10   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          75  64  85  63  89 /  40  20  10   0  10
CLOVERDALE              77  63  82  63  84 /  30  20   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER









000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221031
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
431 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...COMBINED WITH AN UPPER HIGH
OVER THE GULF STATES IS PRODUCING A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS
BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP OVER THE BORDERLAND THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT TODAY. THE UPPER LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY TAPER OFF THE SHOWERS FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. EXPECT JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
SOME MOISTURE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST AND DRIER FOR MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL
TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT THEN WARM BACK TO NORMAL BY
SUNDAY INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW OVER SW ARIZONA AND MAXIMIZING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. TPW PRODUCT
SHOWS PW`S AS HIGH AS 1.5" MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS
FINALLY STARTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE LAST NIGHT AND ARE
GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD. MOST UNSTABLE AREA SEEMS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM. MOST
OF THEM DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE CWA BUT A FEW LINGER ACROSS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DEEP CLOUDINESS WILL OBVIOUSLY HINDER WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY BUT PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS OF 78-82
WHICH I THINK MOST PLACES CAN REACH...SO EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH
LATER TODAY WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING N-S OVER THE ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FROM ABOUT EL PASO NORTHWARD
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TROUGH COULD INTENSIFY SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF IT AND WILL
BEGIN DRYING OUT BEHIND IT. SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE WEST BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND IN THE EAST BY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS ACTIVE. THE EAST REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THE
TROUGH AND PW`S STILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE AN INCH SO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...MAINLY EAST OF EL PASO. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOUT 8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS/RAIN
BUT BEGIN WARMING UP SATURDAY AS THE BORDERLAND SHEDS IT`S CLOUD
COVER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS MAIN UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF STATES RIDGES OUT WESTWARD
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA. MODELS SHOW MODEST AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER THE AREA (ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OVER THE CWA) SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR ALL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BREAKS OFF HIGH CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL TURN OUR UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST
AND KEEP MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA. GFS STILL
SHOWS AIRMASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT PW`S ONLY AROUND 1" AND DEW POINTS
BACK TO 40S TO 50. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND LIMITED
MOSTLY TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z...
BKN-OVC150 LAYERS 300. SCATTERED -SHRA OVC100 WITH EMBEDDED 3-5SM
TSRA BKN090CB TOPS 420. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY EAST OF DEMING. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW OVER SW ARIZONA CONTINUES TO STREAM MOISTURE UP OVER THE
FIRE ZONES IN MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AND
SHOULD SPREAD TO ALL ZONES THROUGH THIS MORNING. SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
MOST OF TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH BEGIN MOVING THROUGH NEW MEXICO. DRYING WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHWEST FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR...MAY LIMIT ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL TODAY WITH THE RAIN BUT THEN WARM
BACK TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MIN RH`S TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM 40-50% LOWLANDS AND FALL TO 30-35% THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MIN RH`S FOR THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE
FROM 45-55% TODAY AND FALL TO 35-45% THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAINES
INDICES VERY LOW (2 OR 3) TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 80  71  89  72  92 /  70  40  20   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           75  69  87  68  89 /  50  50  30  10  10
LAS CRUCES              78  68  87  67  91 /  70  40  20   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              77  67  90  66  87 /  80  50  20   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              61  50  68  48  71 /  90  60  30  10  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   76  67  83  66  89 /  60  30  10   0  10
SILVER CITY             75  59  81  58  83 /  40  20   0   0  10
DEMING                  79  67  86  66  91 /  40  30  10   0  10
LORDSBURG               79  66  85  65  90 /  30  20   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      79  71  88  71  92 /  70  40  20   0  10
DELL CITY               80  67  89  69  93 /  60  50  30  10  10
FORT HANCOCK            78  70  92  71  94 /  60  50  30  10  10
LOMA LINDA              78  67  84  67  87 /  70  50  30  10  10
FABENS                  79  68  91  69  92 /  70  40  30   0  10
SANTA TERESA            79  70  88  68  91 /  70  40  20   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          79  69  87  68  91 /  60  50  20   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           77  68  86  67  91 /  60  40  20   0  10
HATCH                   78  67  87  66  91 /  60  40  10   0  10
COLUMBUS                78  69  87  68  92 /  50  30  10   0  10
OROGRANDE               78  69  85  68  88 /  70  50  20   0  10
MAYHILL                 65  55  80  54  80 /  80  60  30  10  30
MESCALERO               68  55  79  54  79 /  80  50  20  10  30
TIMBERON                69  56  76  55  78 /  90  50  30  10  30
WINSTON                 71  53  81  53  83 /  50  20  10   0  30
HILLSBORO               76  62  84  62  88 /  50  30  10   0  10
SPACEPORT               76  67  84  66  88 /  60  40  10   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            74  55  80  58  84 /  40  20  10   0  30
HURLEY                  76  61  82  61  84 /  40  20   0   0  10
CLIFF                   78  54  82  53  85 /  30  20   0   0  10
MULE CREEK              77  50  79  51  83 /  40  20   0   0  10
FAYWOOD                 76  61  84  61  90 /  40  20  10   0  10
ANIMAS                  77  66  85  65  89 /  30  20   0   0  10
HACHITA                 79  66  86  65  90 /  30  20  10   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          75  64  85  63  89 /  40  20  10   0  10
CLOVERDALE              77  63  82  63  84 /  30  20   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER








000
FXUS64 KMAF 220927
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
427 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Our area continues to be sandwiched in between a slow moving upper
low over the Desert SW and the upper ridge over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Not much change is expected today as
compared to yesterday as we still have a sfc trough axis over the
area along with disturbances moving north within the weak flow
aloft. One of these disturbances is likely helping produce heavy
rain across El Paso this morning. Most of the models have come into
a bit better agreement regarding this afternoons rain chances. The
sfc trough axis should lie somewhere across SE NM south into the
Davis Mountains. This is where the highest PoPs will be placed,
tapering down to the east. Even though storms will likely move north
they will also propagate east along outflow boundaries. PWATS remain
near 1.5" so heavy rain is a good possibility with these storms
especially as they train over the same areas.

Convection will become more isolated and confined mostly to SE NM
and the higher terrain of W TX this weekend and most of next week as
the sfc trough retrogrades west. Temperatures will remain above
normal into next week as the ridge continues its influence over us.

Another trough is expected to dig into the Rockies early next week,
however models disagree with the strength. The ECMWF is deeper with
the trough while the GFS is more progressive and quickly builds a
ridge across the western U.S. Both models push a cold front into the
Southern Plains with precip developing along it. Will not change too
much in the extended just yet as the models continue to resolve the
pattern next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  69  95  70  /  20  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              97  73  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                96  71  95  69  /  30  30  20  10
DRYDEN TX                 101  74 100  77  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  70  96  71  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          84  65  87  66  /  30  30  20  10
HOBBS NM                   94  67  93  67  /  30  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   89  60  88  59  /  30  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    97  72  96  73  /  20  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  96  72  95  74  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                   100  73  99  73  /  30  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 220927
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
427 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Our area continues to be sandwiched in between a slow moving upper
low over the Desert SW and the upper ridge over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Not much change is expected today as
compared to yesterday as we still have a sfc trough axis over the
area along with disturbances moving north within the weak flow
aloft. One of these disturbances is likely helping produce heavy
rain across El Paso this morning. Most of the models have come into
a bit better agreement regarding this afternoons rain chances. The
sfc trough axis should lie somewhere across SE NM south into the
Davis Mountains. This is where the highest PoPs will be placed,
tapering down to the east. Even though storms will likely move north
they will also propagate east along outflow boundaries. PWATS remain
near 1.5" so heavy rain is a good possibility with these storms
especially as they train over the same areas.

Convection will become more isolated and confined mostly to SE NM
and the higher terrain of W TX this weekend and most of next week as
the sfc trough retrogrades west. Temperatures will remain above
normal into next week as the ridge continues its influence over us.

Another trough is expected to dig into the Rockies early next week,
however models disagree with the strength. The ECMWF is deeper with
the trough while the GFS is more progressive and quickly builds a
ridge across the western U.S. Both models push a cold front into the
Southern Plains with precip developing along it. Will not change too
much in the extended just yet as the models continue to resolve the
pattern next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  69  95  70  /  20  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              97  73  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                96  71  95  69  /  30  30  20  10
DRYDEN TX                 101  74 100  77  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  70  96  71  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          84  65  87  66  /  30  30  20  10
HOBBS NM                   94  67  93  67  /  30  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   89  60  88  59  /  30  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    97  72  96  73  /  20  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  96  72  95  74  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                   100  73  99  73  /  30  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 220927
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
427 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Our area continues to be sandwiched in between a slow moving upper
low over the Desert SW and the upper ridge over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Not much change is expected today as
compared to yesterday as we still have a sfc trough axis over the
area along with disturbances moving north within the weak flow
aloft. One of these disturbances is likely helping produce heavy
rain across El Paso this morning. Most of the models have come into
a bit better agreement regarding this afternoons rain chances. The
sfc trough axis should lie somewhere across SE NM south into the
Davis Mountains. This is where the highest PoPs will be placed,
tapering down to the east. Even though storms will likely move north
they will also propagate east along outflow boundaries. PWATS remain
near 1.5" so heavy rain is a good possibility with these storms
especially as they train over the same areas.

Convection will become more isolated and confined mostly to SE NM
and the higher terrain of W TX this weekend and most of next week as
the sfc trough retrogrades west. Temperatures will remain above
normal into next week as the ridge continues its influence over us.

Another trough is expected to dig into the Rockies early next week,
however models disagree with the strength. The ECMWF is deeper with
the trough while the GFS is more progressive and quickly builds a
ridge across the western U.S. Both models push a cold front into the
Southern Plains with precip developing along it. Will not change too
much in the extended just yet as the models continue to resolve the
pattern next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  69  95  70  /  20  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              97  73  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                96  71  95  69  /  30  30  20  10
DRYDEN TX                 101  74 100  77  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  70  96  71  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          84  65  87  66  /  30  30  20  10
HOBBS NM                   94  67  93  67  /  30  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   89  60  88  59  /  30  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    97  72  96  73  /  20  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  96  72  95  74  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                   100  73  99  73  /  30  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 220927
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
427 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Our area continues to be sandwiched in between a slow moving upper
low over the Desert SW and the upper ridge over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Not much change is expected today as
compared to yesterday as we still have a sfc trough axis over the
area along with disturbances moving north within the weak flow
aloft. One of these disturbances is likely helping produce heavy
rain across El Paso this morning. Most of the models have come into
a bit better agreement regarding this afternoons rain chances. The
sfc trough axis should lie somewhere across SE NM south into the
Davis Mountains. This is where the highest PoPs will be placed,
tapering down to the east. Even though storms will likely move north
they will also propagate east along outflow boundaries. PWATS remain
near 1.5" so heavy rain is a good possibility with these storms
especially as they train over the same areas.

Convection will become more isolated and confined mostly to SE NM
and the higher terrain of W TX this weekend and most of next week as
the sfc trough retrogrades west. Temperatures will remain above
normal into next week as the ridge continues its influence over us.

Another trough is expected to dig into the Rockies early next week,
however models disagree with the strength. The ECMWF is deeper with
the trough while the GFS is more progressive and quickly builds a
ridge across the western U.S. Both models push a cold front into the
Southern Plains with precip developing along it. Will not change too
much in the extended just yet as the models continue to resolve the
pattern next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  69  95  70  /  20  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              97  73  96  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                96  71  95  69  /  30  30  20  10
DRYDEN TX                 101  74 100  77  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  70  96  71  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          84  65  87  66  /  30  30  20  10
HOBBS NM                   94  67  93  67  /  30  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   89  60  88  59  /  30  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    97  72  96  73  /  20  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  96  72  95  74  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                   100  73  99  73  /  30  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 220921
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
421 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIVE ANOTHER DAY. A
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE ON WHETHER WE WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS TROUGH AS ITS JET
MAX WILL BE PLACED WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. WE STILL STILL
LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION UNDERNEATH A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO
THE EAST. CONVENTION WILL BE WITHIN THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AND
THE RAP INDICATES A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE TROUGH AXIS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE MORE TO THE EAST IF THE RAP IS MORE
CORRECT IN ITS SOLUTION ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST ON THE CAPROCK.

A NOTABLE DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL OCCUR TODAY
MOSTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I27 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE DUE TO DRIER
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AT MID LEVELS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
CHANGE FOR AREAS WEST OF I27 WITH CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITHIN THE PRESSURE TROUGH WHERE THE HIGHEST
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHERMORE...STORM
PROPAGATION VECTORS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE TRAINING
OF CONVECTION AND REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH
CLOUD BASES.


&&

.LONG TERM...
A THINNING BAND OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH.
LIMITED IF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS EXPECTED THOUGH MODEST SURFACE
TROUGHING AND STRONG HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW AFTERNOON
STORMS IN AND NEAR THAT TROUGH. HEIGHTS WILL REBUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE MONSOON FLOW IMPROVING AGAIN...THOUGH SHIFTING BACK
TO THE WEST. UNCLEAR JUST YET IF THIS WILL REMAIN NEAR ENOUGH OUR
WESTERN BORDER AREAS FOR MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INVOLVING THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE
PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER. BOTH AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING ARE MUCH IN QUESTION...THUS PRECLUDING THUNDER MENTION AS
WELL FOR NOW. BUT THIS MAY YET REPRESENT OUR NEXT REAL OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN HANGING
ACROSS NORTHERN STATES COULD SAG INTO OUR AREA. IN THE DAYS AHEAD
WE WILL WATCH FOR THOSE TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES TO BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED. RMCQUEEN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  62  92 /  30  40  20  20  20
TULIA         94  65  95  65  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     93  65  94  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     94  64  93  64  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       95  67  96  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  65  94  65  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    95  65  95  66  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  70 100  72  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          97  68  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  71 100  71  99 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05





000
FXUS64 KLUB 220921
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
421 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIVE ANOTHER DAY. A
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE ON WHETHER WE WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS TROUGH AS ITS JET
MAX WILL BE PLACED WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. WE STILL STILL
LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION UNDERNEATH A MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND RIDGE TO
THE EAST. CONVENTION WILL BE WITHIN THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AND
THE RAP INDICATES A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE TROUGH AXIS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE MORE TO THE EAST IF THE RAP IS MORE
CORRECT IN ITS SOLUTION ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST ON THE CAPROCK.

A NOTABLE DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL OCCUR TODAY
MOSTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I27 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE DUE TO DRIER
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AT MID LEVELS. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH
CHANGE FOR AREAS WEST OF I27 WITH CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AN AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED
TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG WITHIN THE PRESSURE TROUGH WHERE THE HIGHEST
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHERMORE...STORM
PROPAGATION VECTORS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE TRAINING
OF CONVECTION AND REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH
CLOUD BASES.


&&

.LONG TERM...
A THINNING BAND OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SKIRTS BY TO THE NORTH.
LIMITED IF ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT IS EXPECTED THOUGH MODEST SURFACE
TROUGHING AND STRONG HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW AFTERNOON
STORMS IN AND NEAR THAT TROUGH. HEIGHTS WILL REBUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE MONSOON FLOW IMPROVING AGAIN...THOUGH SHIFTING BACK
TO THE WEST. UNCLEAR JUST YET IF THIS WILL REMAIN NEAR ENOUGH OUR
WESTERN BORDER AREAS FOR MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INVOLVING THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE
PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER. BOTH AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING ARE MUCH IN QUESTION...THUS PRECLUDING THUNDER MENTION AS
WELL FOR NOW. BUT THIS MAY YET REPRESENT OUR NEXT REAL OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN HANGING
ACROSS NORTHERN STATES COULD SAG INTO OUR AREA. IN THE DAYS AHEAD
WE WILL WATCH FOR THOSE TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES TO BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED. RMCQUEEN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  62  92 /  30  40  20  20  20
TULIA         94  65  95  65  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     93  65  94  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     94  64  93  64  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       95  67  96  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  65  94  65  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    95  65  95  66  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  70 100  72  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          97  68  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  71 100  71  99 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 220920
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
420 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ (30-40KTS) RETURNED OVERNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...THE NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS THIN AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ARE DISRUPTING THE SATURATION PROCESS...PREVENTING THE DECK
FROM BECOMING COMPLETELY SOLID. EVEN SO...CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
AUGUST SUN SHOULD QUICKLY EVAPORATE THE CLOUD LAYER...ALLOWING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STEADILY WEAKENING LLJ WILL REDUCE THE
INCIDENCE OF MORNING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN GRADUALLY
DECREASING SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE
OPPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH WITH ITS CUT-OFF AND NOW RESEMBLES THE
CANADIAN. BOTH ARE STILL LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WHICH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH ACCOMPANYING
RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS FRONT WOULD
SIMPLY MEAN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1210 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS AT KACT TONIGHT.

STRATUS WILL MAKE A RETURN TO KACT TONIGHT...MOVING IN AROUND
09-10Z WITH BASES BETWEEN 1-2 KFT. THE STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
COVER THE METROPLEX BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW STRANDS OF STRATUS
MOVING THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. A FEW WIND GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78 100  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             98  75  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  75 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            98  80  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  76  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         99  76  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 220920
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
420 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ (30-40KTS) RETURNED OVERNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...THE NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS THIN AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ARE DISRUPTING THE SATURATION PROCESS...PREVENTING THE DECK
FROM BECOMING COMPLETELY SOLID. EVEN SO...CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
AUGUST SUN SHOULD QUICKLY EVAPORATE THE CLOUD LAYER...ALLOWING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STEADILY WEAKENING LLJ WILL REDUCE THE
INCIDENCE OF MORNING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN GRADUALLY
DECREASING SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE
OPPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH WITH ITS CUT-OFF AND NOW RESEMBLES THE
CANADIAN. BOTH ARE STILL LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WHICH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH ACCOMPANYING
RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS FRONT WOULD
SIMPLY MEAN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1210 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS AT KACT TONIGHT.

STRATUS WILL MAKE A RETURN TO KACT TONIGHT...MOVING IN AROUND
09-10Z WITH BASES BETWEEN 1-2 KFT. THE STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
COVER THE METROPLEX BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW STRANDS OF STRATUS
MOVING THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. A FEW WIND GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78 100  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             98  75  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  75 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            98  80  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  76  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         99  76  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/25






000
FXUS64 KSJT 220914
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
414 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warm and humid weather will continue through tonight. An area of
upper level high pressure remains centered generally over
Louisiana. This ridge will remain in place through Saturday
morning. As a result, we will continue to see flow out of the
south to southeast through the upper levels across our region.
Thus, the ridge will keep a good feed of Gulf of Mexico moisture
into the area, while also suppressing rain chances. The higher
terrain of west Texas will likely again see scattered showers and
thunderstorms. While the western tip of Crockett County could see
an isolated shower or thunderstorm by late afternoon or early
evening, the ridge should keep most of this activity west, so have
kept the forecast dry. Expect another day of highs in the mid to
upper 90s, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

20

.LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Thursday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas through early next week. As a result, a
hot and dry forecast is in store across the area. Highs will be
mainly 95 to 100 with lows in the 70s. Medium range models are
indicating a possible slight change in the upper level flow pattern
for middle to late next week. an upper level trough will move into
the central CONUS, which suppresses 50H heights across the Southern
Plains. Also, a cool front/wind shift will probably move south into
the Big Country by next Wednesday or Thursday. The GFS model is
mainly dry and the ECWMF model is wetter for late next week. Will
keep the forecast dry for now, but slight chance POPS will probably
have to be inserted into the extended forecast during the next
couple of days.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  72  96  73  97 /   0   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  95  71  96  72  97 /   5   0   5   5   5
Junction  94  71  94  71  95 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 220914
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
414 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warm and humid weather will continue through tonight. An area of
upper level high pressure remains centered generally over
Louisiana. This ridge will remain in place through Saturday
morning. As a result, we will continue to see flow out of the
south to southeast through the upper levels across our region.
Thus, the ridge will keep a good feed of Gulf of Mexico moisture
into the area, while also suppressing rain chances. The higher
terrain of west Texas will likely again see scattered showers and
thunderstorms. While the western tip of Crockett County could see
an isolated shower or thunderstorm by late afternoon or early
evening, the ridge should keep most of this activity west, so have
kept the forecast dry. Expect another day of highs in the mid to
upper 90s, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

20

.LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Thursday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas through early next week. As a result, a
hot and dry forecast is in store across the area. Highs will be
mainly 95 to 100 with lows in the 70s. Medium range models are
indicating a possible slight change in the upper level flow pattern
for middle to late next week. an upper level trough will move into
the central CONUS, which suppresses 50H heights across the Southern
Plains. Also, a cool front/wind shift will probably move south into
the Big Country by next Wednesday or Thursday. The GFS model is
mainly dry and the ECWMF model is wetter for late next week. Will
keep the forecast dry for now, but slight chance POPS will probably
have to be inserted into the extended forecast during the next
couple of days.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  72  96  73  97 /   0   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  95  71  96  72  97 /   5   0   5   5   5
Junction  94  71  94  71  95 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 220914
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
414 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warm and humid weather will continue through tonight. An area of
upper level high pressure remains centered generally over
Louisiana. This ridge will remain in place through Saturday
morning. As a result, we will continue to see flow out of the
south to southeast through the upper levels across our region.
Thus, the ridge will keep a good feed of Gulf of Mexico moisture
into the area, while also suppressing rain chances. The higher
terrain of west Texas will likely again see scattered showers and
thunderstorms. While the western tip of Crockett County could see
an isolated shower or thunderstorm by late afternoon or early
evening, the ridge should keep most of this activity west, so have
kept the forecast dry. Expect another day of highs in the mid to
upper 90s, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

20

.LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Thursday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas through early next week. As a result, a
hot and dry forecast is in store across the area. Highs will be
mainly 95 to 100 with lows in the 70s. Medium range models are
indicating a possible slight change in the upper level flow pattern
for middle to late next week. an upper level trough will move into
the central CONUS, which suppresses 50H heights across the Southern
Plains. Also, a cool front/wind shift will probably move south into
the Big Country by next Wednesday or Thursday. The GFS model is
mainly dry and the ECWMF model is wetter for late next week. Will
keep the forecast dry for now, but slight chance POPS will probably
have to be inserted into the extended forecast during the next
couple of days.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  72  96  73  97 /   0   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  95  71  96  72  97 /   5   0   5   5   5
Junction  94  71  94  71  95 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSJT 220914
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
414 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warm and humid weather will continue through tonight. An area of
upper level high pressure remains centered generally over
Louisiana. This ridge will remain in place through Saturday
morning. As a result, we will continue to see flow out of the
south to southeast through the upper levels across our region.
Thus, the ridge will keep a good feed of Gulf of Mexico moisture
into the area, while also suppressing rain chances. The higher
terrain of west Texas will likely again see scattered showers and
thunderstorms. While the western tip of Crockett County could see
an isolated shower or thunderstorm by late afternoon or early
evening, the ridge should keep most of this activity west, so have
kept the forecast dry. Expect another day of highs in the mid to
upper 90s, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

20

.LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Thursday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas through early next week. As a result, a
hot and dry forecast is in store across the area. Highs will be
mainly 95 to 100 with lows in the 70s. Medium range models are
indicating a possible slight change in the upper level flow pattern
for middle to late next week. an upper level trough will move into
the central CONUS, which suppresses 50H heights across the Southern
Plains. Also, a cool front/wind shift will probably move south into
the Big Country by next Wednesday or Thursday. The GFS model is
mainly dry and the ECWMF model is wetter for late next week. Will
keep the forecast dry for now, but slight chance POPS will probably
have to be inserted into the extended forecast during the next
couple of days.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  72  96  73  97 /   0   0   5   5   5
San Angelo  95  71  96  72  97 /   5   0   5   5   5
Junction  94  71  94  71  95 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KAMA 220906
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS HAVE
BEEN MADE IN SEVERAL PERIODS...BASED ON EXPECTED POSITIONS OF
INSTABILTY AXES AND OCCASIONAL WEAK TO MODERATE DYNAMICS.

VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REACHING 100 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
NOTABLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY FROM RECENT WARMTH.  LOW POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  LATER PERIODS KEPT DRY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/03




000
FXUS64 KAMA 220906
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.  MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS HAVE
BEEN MADE IN SEVERAL PERIODS...BASED ON EXPECTED POSITIONS OF
INSTABILTY AXES AND OCCASIONAL WEAK TO MODERATE DYNAMICS.

VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REACHING 100 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
NOTABLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY FROM RECENT WARMTH.  LOW POPS CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  LATER PERIODS KEPT DRY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/03





000
FXUS64 KHGX 220903
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
403 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 08Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO NEW MEXICO. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL INCH ITS WAY TOWARD
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER ARKANSAS
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH DAY TO
DAY CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SFC EACH
AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR
THE COAST. HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY SINCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FCST TO REMAIN ABOVE 105 DEGREES. A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY AND
THIS FEATURE WILL ERODE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE. PW VALUES BEGIN TO RISE AND INCREASE TO 1.85 INCHES BY 00Z
WED. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S ON TUES WHICH IS
REACHABLE BY LATE AFTN SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES ON WED/THU WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTIVE
TEMPS. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND
LEAVING A WEAKNESS ALOFT. THE WEAKNESS/LOWER HEIGHTS WILL YIELD
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. 43

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED A BIT MORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN THE EVEN THOUGH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WERE
OCCURRING...THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE STAYED BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA.
MODEL DATA FORECASTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  77  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 220903
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
403 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT 08Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO NEW MEXICO. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL INCH ITS WAY TOWARD
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER ARKANSAS
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH DAY TO
DAY CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SFC EACH
AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE AMBIENT AIR TEMP WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR
THE COAST. HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY SINCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FCST TO REMAIN ABOVE 105 DEGREES. A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY AND
THIS FEATURE WILL ERODE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER
RIDGE. PW VALUES BEGIN TO RISE AND INCREASE TO 1.85 INCHES BY 00Z
WED. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S ON TUES WHICH IS
REACHABLE BY LATE AFTN SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS. PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES ON WED/THU WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTIVE
TEMPS. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND
LEAVING A WEAKNESS ALOFT. THE WEAKNESS/LOWER HEIGHTS WILL YIELD
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. 43

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED A BIT MORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
RESULT HAS BEEN THE EVEN THOUGH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WERE
OCCURRING...THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE STAYED BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA.
MODEL DATA FORECASTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      99  77  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KBRO 220850
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
350 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...A PAUSE BETWEEN INFLUXES OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PLACE THE THE CWA IN A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...AND WILL PROVIDE A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE LESS THAN OVERWHELMING
AND THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...RANGING FROM THE
MID 90S EAST TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK OUT WEST. LOW
TO MID 90S WILL PREVAIL AT THE WATERFRONT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES. THE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE HOT UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY INITIATE TODAY...BUT ONLY
ISOLATED...IF ANY...SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.

TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RANCH LANDS WILL BE THE NORM...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW TEMPS NEAR
80 ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORE MARINE SHOWERS AND A FORECAST PWAT OF TWO
INCHES WILL HERALD MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...EVERY
THING ELSE SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL STILL SUPPORT 1014 TO 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
GULF...AND LOCAL WEATHER WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY. GULF HIGH PRESSURE
INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST
AREAS. DUE TO THE MOISTURE...A SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY INITIATE...
WITH GUIDANCE IN SOME CASES SHOWING A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN WITH THE SEA BREEZE. OPTED TO STAY WITH THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW HOWEVER...AS COVERAGE/DURATION OF THE SEA BREEZE EVENT
SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL MEANDER AND WEAKEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. KEPT THE DRIER
FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT GOING WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
AND PWATS BELOW 1.8 INCHES. BY MIDWEEK DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS
APPEAR WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE TROUGH/ERODING SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAKER WITH A WEST MOVING S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF
AND KEEP MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER/STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH WHICH KEEPS THE S/W
TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD AND BRINGING POP CHANCES UP
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. GOT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL SUPPORT LOW TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREAS IN THE
SHORT TERM. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT
BE OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT AND WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE WINDS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
MONDAY. MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. BRIEF PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  81  95  80 /  10  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          97  79  97  79 /  20  10  20  10
HARLINGEN           100  78  99  78 /  10  10  20  10
MCALLEN             102  80 102  79 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     103  80 102  78 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   92  81  91  81 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BIRCHFIELD/CAMPBELL





000
FXUS64 KBRO 220850
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
350 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...A PAUSE BETWEEN INFLUXES OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PLACE THE THE CWA IN A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...AND WILL PROVIDE A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE LESS THAN OVERWHELMING
AND THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...RANGING FROM THE
MID 90S EAST TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK OUT WEST. LOW
TO MID 90S WILL PREVAIL AT THE WATERFRONT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES. THE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE HOT UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY INITIATE TODAY...BUT ONLY
ISOLATED...IF ANY...SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.

TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RANCH LANDS WILL BE THE NORM...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW TEMPS NEAR
80 ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORE MARINE SHOWERS AND A FORECAST PWAT OF TWO
INCHES WILL HERALD MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...EVERY
THING ELSE SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL STILL SUPPORT 1014 TO 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
GULF...AND LOCAL WEATHER WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY. GULF HIGH PRESSURE
INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST
AREAS. DUE TO THE MOISTURE...A SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY INITIATE...
WITH GUIDANCE IN SOME CASES SHOWING A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN WITH THE SEA BREEZE. OPTED TO STAY WITH THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW HOWEVER...AS COVERAGE/DURATION OF THE SEA BREEZE EVENT
SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL MEANDER AND WEAKEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. KEPT THE DRIER
FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT GOING WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
AND PWATS BELOW 1.8 INCHES. BY MIDWEEK DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS
APPEAR WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE TROUGH/ERODING SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAKER WITH A WEST MOVING S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF
AND KEEP MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER/STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH WHICH KEEPS THE S/W
TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD AND BRINGING POP CHANCES UP
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. GOT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL SUPPORT LOW TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREAS IN THE
SHORT TERM. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT
BE OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT AND WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE WINDS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
MONDAY. MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. BRIEF PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  81  95  80 /  10  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          97  79  97  79 /  20  10  20  10
HARLINGEN           100  78  99  78 /  10  10  20  10
MCALLEN             102  80 102  79 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     103  80 102  78 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   92  81  91  81 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BIRCHFIELD/CAMPBELL





000
FXUS64 KBRO 220850
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
350 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...A PAUSE BETWEEN INFLUXES OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PLACE THE THE CWA IN A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...AND WILL PROVIDE A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE LESS THAN OVERWHELMING
AND THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...RANGING FROM THE
MID 90S EAST TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK OUT WEST. LOW
TO MID 90S WILL PREVAIL AT THE WATERFRONT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES. THE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE HOT UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY INITIATE TODAY...BUT ONLY
ISOLATED...IF ANY...SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.

TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RANCH LANDS WILL BE THE NORM...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW TEMPS NEAR
80 ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORE MARINE SHOWERS AND A FORECAST PWAT OF TWO
INCHES WILL HERALD MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...EVERY
THING ELSE SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL STILL SUPPORT 1014 TO 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
GULF...AND LOCAL WEATHER WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY. GULF HIGH PRESSURE
INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST
AREAS. DUE TO THE MOISTURE...A SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY INITIATE...
WITH GUIDANCE IN SOME CASES SHOWING A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN WITH THE SEA BREEZE. OPTED TO STAY WITH THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW HOWEVER...AS COVERAGE/DURATION OF THE SEA BREEZE EVENT
SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL MEANDER AND WEAKEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. KEPT THE DRIER
FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT GOING WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
AND PWATS BELOW 1.8 INCHES. BY MIDWEEK DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS
APPEAR WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE TROUGH/ERODING SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAKER WITH A WEST MOVING S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF
AND KEEP MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER/STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH WHICH KEEPS THE S/W
TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD AND BRINGING POP CHANCES UP
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. GOT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL SUPPORT LOW TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREAS IN THE
SHORT TERM. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT
BE OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT AND WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE WINDS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
MONDAY. MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. BRIEF PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  81  95  80 /  10  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          97  79  97  79 /  20  10  20  10
HARLINGEN           100  78  99  78 /  10  10  20  10
MCALLEN             102  80 102  79 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     103  80 102  78 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   92  81  91  81 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BIRCHFIELD/CAMPBELL





000
FXUS64 KBRO 220850
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
350 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...A PAUSE BETWEEN INFLUXES OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PLACE THE THE CWA IN A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...AND WILL PROVIDE A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE LESS THAN OVERWHELMING
AND THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...RANGING FROM THE
MID 90S EAST TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK OUT WEST. LOW
TO MID 90S WILL PREVAIL AT THE WATERFRONT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES. THE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE HOT UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY INITIATE TODAY...BUT ONLY
ISOLATED...IF ANY...SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.

TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RANCH LANDS WILL BE THE NORM...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW TEMPS NEAR
80 ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORE MARINE SHOWERS AND A FORECAST PWAT OF TWO
INCHES WILL HERALD MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...EVERY
THING ELSE SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL STILL SUPPORT 1014 TO 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
GULF...AND LOCAL WEATHER WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY. GULF HIGH PRESSURE
INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST
AREAS. DUE TO THE MOISTURE...A SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY INITIATE...
WITH GUIDANCE IN SOME CASES SHOWING A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN WITH THE SEA BREEZE. OPTED TO STAY WITH THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW HOWEVER...AS COVERAGE/DURATION OF THE SEA BREEZE EVENT
SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL MEANDER AND WEAKEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. KEPT THE DRIER
FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT GOING WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
AND PWATS BELOW 1.8 INCHES. BY MIDWEEK DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS
APPEAR WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE TROUGH/ERODING SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAKER WITH A WEST MOVING S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF
AND KEEP MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER/STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH WHICH KEEPS THE S/W
TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD AND BRINGING POP CHANCES UP
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. GOT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL SUPPORT LOW TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREAS IN THE
SHORT TERM. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT
BE OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT AND WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE WINDS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
MONDAY. MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. BRIEF PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  81  95  80 /  10  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          97  79  97  79 /  20  10  20  10
HARLINGEN           100  78  99  78 /  10  10  20  10
MCALLEN             102  80 102  79 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     103  80 102  78 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   92  81  91  81 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BIRCHFIELD/CAMPBELL





000
FXUS64 KCRP 220832
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
332 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. H5 RIDGE CENTER
SLOWLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO NE TX TODAY WHILE DRIER AIRMASS
ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. AREAS OF STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TRANSITION TO A SCATTERED CU FIELD THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH
SHOULD THEN THIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS
PGF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LITTLE WEAKER. SLIGHTLY BETTER DIURNAL
MIXING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HEAT INDICES UNDER HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOCATIONS BRIEFLY
REACHING HEAT INDICES OF 110 F. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/S VALUES WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS MORNINGS GIVEN EXPECTED LIGHTER LLJ AND BETTER
DECOUPLING OF PBL. ON SATURDAY...HIGHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES
/CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER S CENTRAL GULF OF MX/ ARE PROG TO GET
PULLED NORTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHICH SHOULD AID
AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OCCURRING DURING THE DAY.
COVERAGE/CHANCES...HOWEVER...ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FORECAST
ATTM. MAX TEMPS SAT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER GIVEN SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN H9 TO H8 THERMAL LAYER.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...WEAKNESS IN UPPER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST...ONCE THE
MOISTURE GETS TO BE A BIT BETTER. COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OUT TO THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING IT AT THIS TIME AS THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AND THERE IS
NO RAINFALL MENTIONED DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. THERE IS
ONLY BORDERLINE MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH EVEN LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON TUESDAY. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON RAINFALL HERE
AS WELL...AS ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED (10 PERCENT OR
LESS COVERAGE). OVERALL...IT HAS BEEN DRY SO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW. MOISTURE GETS A BIT BETTER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THIS)...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POPS GOING
FOR NOW...AS WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR SOUTH TEXAS
STANDARDS. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS...AS MODEL 2 METER TEMPERATURES SHOW
VERY LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY (EXCEPT NEAR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED WHERE THEY ARE A BIT COOLER). MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
A BIT MORE TRICKY...SINCE AT TIMES EARLY MORNING SURFACE WINDS HAVE
A SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT (OR ARE CALM). WHEN THIS IS THE
CASE...HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY (MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE
IT) BUT OVERALL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS WELL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HEAT INDICES 105 TO 109
IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. LOWER WINDS MEAN FIRE DANGER IS BELOW ELEVATED
LEVELS.
&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING
/STRONGEST ACROSS BAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO CORPUS CHRISTI BAY/.
WIND SPEEDSTHIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST SHY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. LIGHTER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL STILL BECOME
MODERATE AT TIMES.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT /ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEFLY LOWER VALUES/. WINDS SPEEDS TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY FROM THE SSE...BUT OVERALL WIND VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THUS...NO RED FLAG WARNING WILL
BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  78  96  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         100  77 100  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  80 104  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            101  76 100  75 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  81  94  81  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          104  76 103  76 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       100  77  99  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  81  94  81  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE
GW/86...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 220832
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
332 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. H5 RIDGE CENTER
SLOWLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO NE TX TODAY WHILE DRIER AIRMASS
ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. AREAS OF STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TRANSITION TO A SCATTERED CU FIELD THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH
SHOULD THEN THIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL
BECOME BREEZY AGAIN BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS
PGF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LITTLE WEAKER. SLIGHTLY BETTER DIURNAL
MIXING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HEAT INDICES UNDER HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOCATIONS BRIEFLY
REACHING HEAT INDICES OF 110 F. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/S VALUES WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS MORNINGS GIVEN EXPECTED LIGHTER LLJ AND BETTER
DECOUPLING OF PBL. ON SATURDAY...HIGHER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES
/CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER S CENTRAL GULF OF MX/ ARE PROG TO GET
PULLED NORTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHICH SHOULD AID
AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OCCURRING DURING THE DAY.
COVERAGE/CHANCES...HOWEVER...ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN FORECAST
ATTM. MAX TEMPS SAT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER GIVEN SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN H9 TO H8 THERMAL LAYER.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...WEAKNESS IN UPPER
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST...ONCE THE
MOISTURE GETS TO BE A BIT BETTER. COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OUT TO THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING IT AT THIS TIME AS THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AND THERE IS
NO RAINFALL MENTIONED DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. THERE IS
ONLY BORDERLINE MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH EVEN LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON TUESDAY. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON RAINFALL HERE
AS WELL...AS ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED (10 PERCENT OR
LESS COVERAGE). OVERALL...IT HAS BEEN DRY SO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW. MOISTURE GETS A BIT BETTER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THIS)...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POPS GOING
FOR NOW...AS WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR SOUTH TEXAS
STANDARDS. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS...AS MODEL 2 METER TEMPERATURES SHOW
VERY LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY (EXCEPT NEAR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED WHERE THEY ARE A BIT COOLER). MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
A BIT MORE TRICKY...SINCE AT TIMES EARLY MORNING SURFACE WINDS HAVE
A SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT (OR ARE CALM). WHEN THIS IS THE
CASE...HAVE GONE MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY (MAYBE A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE
IT) BUT OVERALL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS WELL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HEAT INDICES 105 TO 109
IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. LOWER WINDS MEAN FIRE DANGER IS BELOW ELEVATED
LEVELS.
&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING
/STRONGEST ACROSS BAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO CORPUS CHRISTI BAY/.
WIND SPEEDSTHIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST SHY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. LIGHTER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL STILL BECOME
MODERATE AT TIMES.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT /ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEFLY LOWER VALUES/. WINDS SPEEDS TODAY WILL BE
BREEZY FROM THE SSE...BUT OVERALL WIND VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THUS...NO RED FLAG WARNING WILL
BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    97  78  96  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         100  77 100  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           106  80 104  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            101  76 100  75 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  81  94  81  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          104  76 103  76 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       100  77  99  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  81  94  81  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE
GW/86...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KEWX 220830
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HOT AND DRY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH DO NOT SHOW ANY ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LIKE WE SAW ON
THURSDAY. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND HUMIDITY IS LOW.

WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 80 AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO GONZALES TO
FLORESVILLE LINE. WITH WINDS DYING OFF MORE TONIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF
CENTRAL TEXAS WEATHER. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL CONTINUE. MODELS
SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             101  75 100  75 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101  72 100  72 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    102  73 101  72 101 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  72  97  72  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  75  99  77 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  74  98  74  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  71  99  73  99 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  73 100  73 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  101  76 100  76 100 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      101  76  99  76 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          101  75 100  75 101 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...
LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 220830
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HOT AND DRY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH DO NOT SHOW ANY ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LIKE WE SAW ON
THURSDAY. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND HUMIDITY IS LOW.

WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 80 AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO GONZALES TO
FLORESVILLE LINE. WITH WINDS DYING OFF MORE TONIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF
CENTRAL TEXAS WEATHER. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL CONTINUE. MODELS
SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             101  75 100  75 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101  72 100  72 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    102  73 101  72 101 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  72  97  72  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  75  99  77 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  74  98  74  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  71  99  73  99 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  73 100  73 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  101  76 100  76 100 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      101  76  99  76 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          101  75 100  75 101 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...
LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 220830
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HOT AND DRY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH DO NOT SHOW ANY ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LIKE WE SAW ON
THURSDAY. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND HUMIDITY IS LOW.

WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 80 AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO GONZALES TO
FLORESVILLE LINE. WITH WINDS DYING OFF MORE TONIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF
CENTRAL TEXAS WEATHER. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL CONTINUE. MODELS
SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             101  75 100  75 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101  72 100  72 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    102  73 101  72 101 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  72  97  72  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  75  99  77 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  74  98  74  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  71  99  73  99 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  73 100  73 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  101  76 100  76 100 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      101  76  99  76 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          101  75 100  75 101 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...
LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12







000
FXUS64 KEWX 220830
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HOT AND DRY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MESOSCALE MODELS WHICH DO NOT SHOW ANY ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LIKE WE SAW ON
THURSDAY. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND HUMIDITY IS LOW.

WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ONLY DROPPING TO NEAR 80 AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ISSUE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO GONZALES TO
FLORESVILLE LINE. WITH WINDS DYING OFF MORE TONIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF
CENTRAL TEXAS WEATHER. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL CONTINUE. MODELS
SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             101  75 100  75 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101  72 100  72 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    102  73 101  72 101 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  72  97  72  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  75  99  77 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  74  98  74  98 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  71  99  73  99 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  73 100  73 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  101  76 100  76 100 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      101  76  99  76 100 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          101  75 100  75 101 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...
LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12







000
FXUS64 KCRP 220534 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS XPCTD TO IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WITH VFR PREVAILING AT KLRD. VFR TO THEN PREVAIL
AT ALL TERMINALS FROM MID MRNG FRI THRU REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.
DVLPNG SRLY LLJ IS AIDING IN AREAS OF STRATUS DVLPMNT AS OF
WRITING WITH STRATUS /CIGS AROUND 1500 FT/ XPCTD TO DRIFT OVER
KCRP/KVCT/KALI AT TIMES EARLY THIS MRNG. VSBYS MAY ALSO FALL TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE IN THE NIGHT AS LLJ GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST. ATTM
XPCTNG MOST MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN EAST OF KLRD. AREAS OF STRATUS
WILL MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH SHALLOW CU FIELD XPCTD TO
DVLP...WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS AT ALL
TERMINALS. SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY THRU THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...STRONGEST AT KLRD /AROUND 15KTS/ AND LIGHTEST
AT KCRP KVCT KALI /AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS/. LLJ WILL TRY TO MIX TO SFC
DRNG DAYLIGHT HRS FRI WITH SSE SFC WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS DRNG THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AROUND 25 KTS /A LITTLE
HIGHER AT KCRP/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  79  97  78  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         101  79  99  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  82 105  81 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  78 101  77 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  82  94  82  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  78 103  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  82  94  81  90  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 220534 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS XPCTD TO IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WITH VFR PREVAILING AT KLRD. VFR TO THEN PREVAIL
AT ALL TERMINALS FROM MID MRNG FRI THRU REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.
DVLPNG SRLY LLJ IS AIDING IN AREAS OF STRATUS DVLPMNT AS OF
WRITING WITH STRATUS /CIGS AROUND 1500 FT/ XPCTD TO DRIFT OVER
KCRP/KVCT/KALI AT TIMES EARLY THIS MRNG. VSBYS MAY ALSO FALL TO
MVFR LEVELS LATE IN THE NIGHT AS LLJ GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST. ATTM
XPCTNG MOST MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN EAST OF KLRD. AREAS OF STRATUS
WILL MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH SHALLOW CU FIELD XPCTD TO
DVLP...WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HRS AT ALL
TERMINALS. SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY THRU THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...STRONGEST AT KLRD /AROUND 15KTS/ AND LIGHTEST
AT KCRP KVCT KALI /AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS/. LLJ WILL TRY TO MIX TO SFC
DRNG DAYLIGHT HRS FRI WITH SSE SFC WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS DRNG THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AROUND 25 KTS /A LITTLE
HIGHER AT KCRP/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  79  97  78  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         101  79  99  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  82 105  81 103  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  78 101  77 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  82  94  82  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  78 103  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  82  94  81  90  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KBRO 220524 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1224 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...AND A MDT SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WIND TODAY. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG A WEAK SEA BREEZE
BUT THE IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE MINIMAL AND NO MENTION WAS MADE
IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DRIER AIR FEEDING INTO THE CWA
WILL LIMIT ANY AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF HIGH CIRRUS
MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO...WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE CONTINUING AT BREEZY LEVELS. THE CIRRUS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOMORROW...CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY ARE
PREDICTED...ALTHOUGH LOWER CLOUDINESS SHOULD RULE. VFR IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST IS MOVING NORTHWEST INTO MEXICO
ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR
SHOWN IN THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.53 INCHES WERE
OBSERVED. THIS HAS LIMIT THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AT THIS TIME. SE WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
LLJ INCREASING BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS MIXING TO THE SFC LEADING TO
THIS BREEZE CONDITIONS. KEPT ONLY A LOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY AS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIGHTLY RETROGRADES WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL STAY IN
THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY LOWERING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE 100 WEST OF
HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX OR FEEL LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 108 TO 110. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SE WINDS TO REMAIN MODERATE
DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIED FORECAST OUT TIL THURSDAY WITH ESPECIALLY DRY AIR OVER GULF OF
MEXICO...BREEZY WINDY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AIDING IN
AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THIS SHIFTS THE 500MB
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL RIDGING FROM ITS PERCH ON THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL HELP RELAX THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PERSISTENT BREEZES AND MAKE SETTING UP A STRONGER
SEABREEZE FRONT DIFFICULT. GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DECENT FOR
CONVECTION BUT THE 850/700MB REGION IS PRETTY DRY AND THE LACK OF
EXTRA HELP FROM THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. SREF
AND MOS GUIDANCE AGREE AND THE RUN TO RUN TREND IS DRIER SO PARED
BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO A MORE FAVORED ZONE INSIDE OF A
FALFURRIAS SARITA RAYMONDVILLE TRIANGLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SUNDAY THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BUT THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP WITH 850/700MB FLOW SOURCING IN THE CURRENTLY RATHER
DRY WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION. PLAYED THE
TEMPS AND POPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE NEW FORECAST WITH A DRY
VALLEY AND SMALL AREA OF THE RANCHLANDS THAT MAY POP A LATE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SHOWER.

MONDAY THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING MORE NOTICEABLY AND ORIENTING MORE EAST TO
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER...ALTHOUGH STILL IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA
WILL BE LOWER WITH THE RIDGE MOVING AHEAD BUT WHEN GFS/ECMWF SHIFT
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE EASTERLY IT ONLY ADVECTS IN STILL
RELATIVELY DRY AIR. AMSU/SSMI BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER
ESTIMATES...GOES SOUNDER... ND CURRENT WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE APPEAR TO SUPPORT THAT CONCEPT WITH A FAIRLY DRY 850MB
LAYER ACROSS THAT ENTIRE REGION SO KEPT THE VALLEY DRY WITH ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF SEABREEZE SHOWERS OVER THE RANCHLANDS GIVEN THE
UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY A REINFORCING PACIFIC JET MAX BEGINS TO DIG WESTERN US
TROUGHING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHICH APPEARS TO FLATTEN
THE EASTERN US RIDGE. THIS LEADS TO DEEPER MORE EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION BUT STILL ONLY DRAWS IN THE DRY AIR FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
AND DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES MUCH. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATED
SLIGHTLY BY THE EASTERLY FLOW. KEPT POPS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FEELING THAT CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE PLAYING TOO BIG A ROLE AT
THAT RANGE COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PREVIOUS
DAYS EVENTS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF DID TREND CLOSER TO THE GFS. SET UP
THE FORECAST BASED ON A SYNOPTIC SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE
WHEREAS THE ECMWF FLATTENS AND DEEPENS RIDGING IN A WAY TO USHER IN
MUCH RICHER EASTERN GULF MOISTURE AND GFS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A
LITTLE HIGHER MID/LOW LEVEL RH VALUESBUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH IN TERMS
OF RICHNESS AND DEPTH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEA
BREEZE BUT I SUSPECT THAT LEE TROUGHING WILL BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST IN DAY 7 GUIDANCE AND BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP A BIT. WENT
WITH A NEARLY VALLEY WIDE 20 POP. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER
THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE SCEC OVER THE LAGUNA AND THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 4 FEET INTO TOMORROW AS THE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CURRENT
FORECASTS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

FIRE WEATHER...ON FRIDAY DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MOVE INLAND. RH VALUES BETWEEN 1000 TO 500 MB LOWER TO
AROUND 30 TO 25 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...THE SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUST UP TO 20 MPH. DUE TO THE DRY
FUELS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND MODERATE TO STRONG SE WINDS
INCREASING...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES BUT COULD ENHANCE FIRE DANGER MAY
BE ISSUED AS THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALSO LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR TOMORROW RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
ESPECIALLY FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND WESTERN STARR COUNTIES. RH
RECOVERIES FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80 PERCENT
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER REMAINING IN THE 70 PERCENT
RANGE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55






000
FXUS64 KBRO 220524 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1224 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...AND A MDT SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WIND TODAY. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG A WEAK SEA BREEZE
BUT THE IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE MINIMAL AND NO MENTION WAS MADE
IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DRIER AIR FEEDING INTO THE CWA
WILL LIMIT ANY AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF HIGH CIRRUS
MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO...WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE CONTINUING AT BREEZY LEVELS. THE CIRRUS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOMORROW...CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY ARE
PREDICTED...ALTHOUGH LOWER CLOUDINESS SHOULD RULE. VFR IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST IS MOVING NORTHWEST INTO MEXICO
ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR
SHOWN IN THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.53 INCHES WERE
OBSERVED. THIS HAS LIMIT THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AT THIS TIME. SE WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
LLJ INCREASING BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS MIXING TO THE SFC LEADING TO
THIS BREEZE CONDITIONS. KEPT ONLY A LOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY AS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIGHTLY RETROGRADES WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL STAY IN
THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY LOWERING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE 100 WEST OF
HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX OR FEEL LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 108 TO 110. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SE WINDS TO REMAIN MODERATE
DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIED FORECAST OUT TIL THURSDAY WITH ESPECIALLY DRY AIR OVER GULF OF
MEXICO...BREEZY WINDY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AIDING IN
AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THIS SHIFTS THE 500MB
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL RIDGING FROM ITS PERCH ON THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL HELP RELAX THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PERSISTENT BREEZES AND MAKE SETTING UP A STRONGER
SEABREEZE FRONT DIFFICULT. GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DECENT FOR
CONVECTION BUT THE 850/700MB REGION IS PRETTY DRY AND THE LACK OF
EXTRA HELP FROM THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. SREF
AND MOS GUIDANCE AGREE AND THE RUN TO RUN TREND IS DRIER SO PARED
BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO A MORE FAVORED ZONE INSIDE OF A
FALFURRIAS SARITA RAYMONDVILLE TRIANGLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SUNDAY THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BUT THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP WITH 850/700MB FLOW SOURCING IN THE CURRENTLY RATHER
DRY WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION. PLAYED THE
TEMPS AND POPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE NEW FORECAST WITH A DRY
VALLEY AND SMALL AREA OF THE RANCHLANDS THAT MAY POP A LATE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SHOWER.

MONDAY THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING MORE NOTICEABLY AND ORIENTING MORE EAST TO
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER...ALTHOUGH STILL IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA
WILL BE LOWER WITH THE RIDGE MOVING AHEAD BUT WHEN GFS/ECMWF SHIFT
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE EASTERLY IT ONLY ADVECTS IN STILL
RELATIVELY DRY AIR. AMSU/SSMI BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER
ESTIMATES...GOES SOUNDER... ND CURRENT WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE APPEAR TO SUPPORT THAT CONCEPT WITH A FAIRLY DRY 850MB
LAYER ACROSS THAT ENTIRE REGION SO KEPT THE VALLEY DRY WITH ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF SEABREEZE SHOWERS OVER THE RANCHLANDS GIVEN THE
UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY A REINFORCING PACIFIC JET MAX BEGINS TO DIG WESTERN US
TROUGHING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHICH APPEARS TO FLATTEN
THE EASTERN US RIDGE. THIS LEADS TO DEEPER MORE EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION BUT STILL ONLY DRAWS IN THE DRY AIR FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
AND DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES MUCH. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATED
SLIGHTLY BY THE EASTERLY FLOW. KEPT POPS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FEELING THAT CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE PLAYING TOO BIG A ROLE AT
THAT RANGE COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PREVIOUS
DAYS EVENTS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF DID TREND CLOSER TO THE GFS. SET UP
THE FORECAST BASED ON A SYNOPTIC SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE
WHEREAS THE ECMWF FLATTENS AND DEEPENS RIDGING IN A WAY TO USHER IN
MUCH RICHER EASTERN GULF MOISTURE AND GFS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A
LITTLE HIGHER MID/LOW LEVEL RH VALUESBUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH IN TERMS
OF RICHNESS AND DEPTH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEA
BREEZE BUT I SUSPECT THAT LEE TROUGHING WILL BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST IN DAY 7 GUIDANCE AND BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP A BIT. WENT
WITH A NEARLY VALLEY WIDE 20 POP. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER
THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE SCEC OVER THE LAGUNA AND THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 4 FEET INTO TOMORROW AS THE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CURRENT
FORECASTS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

FIRE WEATHER...ON FRIDAY DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MOVE INLAND. RH VALUES BETWEEN 1000 TO 500 MB LOWER TO
AROUND 30 TO 25 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...THE SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUST UP TO 20 MPH. DUE TO THE DRY
FUELS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND MODERATE TO STRONG SE WINDS
INCREASING...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES BUT COULD ENHANCE FIRE DANGER MAY
BE ISSUED AS THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALSO LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR TOMORROW RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
ESPECIALLY FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND WESTERN STARR COUNTIES. RH
RECOVERIES FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80 PERCENT
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER REMAINING IN THE 70 PERCENT
RANGE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55





000
FXUS64 KFWD 220510 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1210 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS AT KACT TONIGHT.

STRATUS WILL MAKE A RETURN TO KACT TONIGHT...MOVING IN AROUND
09-10Z WITH BASES BETWEEN 1-2 KFT. THE STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
COVER THE METROPLEX BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW STRANDS OF STRATUS
MOVING THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. A FEW WIND GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED NORTHWEST OF A MINERAL
WELLS TO GAINESVILLE LINE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE SENT AN UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY GRIDS.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE WEAKEST. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE WEST AT 10 PERCENT AND ONLY MENTION IN THE
ZONES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE HEAT
A BIT MORE TOLERABLE.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE END OF AUGUST.



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  99  79 100  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              77  98  77  97  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             74  96  75  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            78 100  76 100  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  74  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  98  80 100  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           76  97  76  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  75  97  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73 100  73 100  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58






000
FXUS64 KFWD 220510 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1210 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS AT KACT TONIGHT.

STRATUS WILL MAKE A RETURN TO KACT TONIGHT...MOVING IN AROUND
09-10Z WITH BASES BETWEEN 1-2 KFT. THE STRATUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
COVER THE METROPLEX BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW STRANDS OF STRATUS
MOVING THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. A FEW WIND GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED NORTHWEST OF A MINERAL
WELLS TO GAINESVILLE LINE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE SENT AN UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY GRIDS.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE WEAKEST. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE WEST AT 10 PERCENT AND ONLY MENTION IN THE
ZONES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE HEAT
A BIT MORE TOLERABLE.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE END OF AUGUST.



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  99  79 100  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              77  98  77  97  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             74  96  75  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            78 100  76 100  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  74  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  98  80 100  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           76  97  76  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  75  97  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73 100  73 100  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58





000
FXUS64 KHGX 220435
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH AN HOUR OR TWO AROUND SUNRISE WHERE NON-METRO HUBS
WILL EXPERIENCE INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS. LIGHT WINDS WILL
SWING BETWEEN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST AND REASONING (SEE DISCUSSIONS BELOW) LOOKS GOOD
AGAIN THIS EVENING...SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. 42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DECKS OVER MORE RURAL (NON-METRO) HUBS
BETWEEN 10-13Z ...OR A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. RELATIVELY LOWER MOISTURE TODAY WILL
PICK UP A BIT TOMORROW BUT...WITH THE REGION BEING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY UPPER RIDGING...CHANCES
FOR ANY MENTIONABLE CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO PLACE WITHIN FRIDAY`S
TAF PACKAGE. A WEAKENED ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY LOWER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES. 31

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE/SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN OVER SE
TX THIS AFTN JUDGING BY THE DEW POINTS/LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE.
THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK (AND
LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND) AS THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. LATEST MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD THE RIDGE IN
PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT/POPS
NOT RETURNING UNTIL NEXT TUE/WED OR SO. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
NO REAL CHANGE WITH THE EXTENDED PART OF THE GRIDS (WHICH HAS
ISO/LOW POPS BACK IN STARTING EARLY MON MORNING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS).

THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE ALLOWED FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEAT INDICES THIS AFTN FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. BUT READINGS ARE
STILL WITHIN CRITERIA FOR EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW. 41

&&

MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN
TO RELAX BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  99  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  97  77  97  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  92  84  92  84 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 220435
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH AN HOUR OR TWO AROUND SUNRISE WHERE NON-METRO HUBS
WILL EXPERIENCE INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS. LIGHT WINDS WILL
SWING BETWEEN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST AND REASONING (SEE DISCUSSIONS BELOW) LOOKS GOOD
AGAIN THIS EVENING...SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. 42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DECKS OVER MORE RURAL (NON-METRO) HUBS
BETWEEN 10-13Z ...OR A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. RELATIVELY LOWER MOISTURE TODAY WILL
PICK UP A BIT TOMORROW BUT...WITH THE REGION BEING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY UPPER RIDGING...CHANCES
FOR ANY MENTIONABLE CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO PLACE WITHIN FRIDAY`S
TAF PACKAGE. A WEAKENED ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY LOWER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES. 31

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE/SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN OVER SE
TX THIS AFTN JUDGING BY THE DEW POINTS/LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE.
THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK (AND
LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND) AS THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. LATEST MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD THE RIDGE IN
PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT/POPS
NOT RETURNING UNTIL NEXT TUE/WED OR SO. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
NO REAL CHANGE WITH THE EXTENDED PART OF THE GRIDS (WHICH HAS
ISO/LOW POPS BACK IN STARTING EARLY MON MORNING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS).

THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE ALLOWED FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEAT INDICES THIS AFTN FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. BUT READINGS ARE
STILL WITHIN CRITERIA FOR EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW. 41

&&

MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN
TO RELAX BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  99  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  97  77  97  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  92  84  92  84 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KEWX 220434
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1134 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-16Z...BUT SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AS DAILY MIXING COMMENCES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. ALL SITES WILL SEE A RETURN TO MODERATELY STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ABOUT 5KT LOWER THAN TODAY.
EXPECT A REPEAT FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...THEN A RETURN OF
MVFR CIGS AFTER 09-10Z IN THE 30-HR EXTENDED TAFS AT KAUS/KSAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

UPDATE...
TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY.

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND EVERYWHERE HAS DROPPED
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED THE
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE FROM THESE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD VCSH WILL BE NEAR KDRT THROUGH 02Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH
GUSTY SURFACE AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 05Z AT ALL SITES.
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-15Z...BUT SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AS DAILY MIXING COMMENCES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE HIGHER AGL AND ONLY FROM
11-16Z FRIDAY AT KDRT. ALL SITES WILL SEE A RETURN TO MODERATELY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ABOUT 5KT LOWER
THAN TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOT AND DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORY
VERIFYING IN A FEW SPOTS ALREADY...PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS MEXICO TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN...AND WITH MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT OR A DEG WARMER THAN TODAY
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING MAY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE POSSIBLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
CHANCE RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7 IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79 101  76 100  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77 101  74 100  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 103  74 101  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  72  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100  77 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  99  74  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  99  72  98  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77 101  75  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79 102  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80 101  77 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 102  76 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99





000
FXUS64 KEWX 220434
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1134 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-16Z...BUT SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AS DAILY MIXING COMMENCES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. ALL SITES WILL SEE A RETURN TO MODERATELY STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ABOUT 5KT LOWER THAN TODAY.
EXPECT A REPEAT FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...THEN A RETURN OF
MVFR CIGS AFTER 09-10Z IN THE 30-HR EXTENDED TAFS AT KAUS/KSAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

UPDATE...
TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY.

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND EVERYWHERE HAS DROPPED
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED THE
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE FROM THESE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD VCSH WILL BE NEAR KDRT THROUGH 02Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH
GUSTY SURFACE AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 05Z AT ALL SITES.
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-15Z...BUT SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AS DAILY MIXING COMMENCES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE HIGHER AGL AND ONLY FROM
11-16Z FRIDAY AT KDRT. ALL SITES WILL SEE A RETURN TO MODERATELY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ABOUT 5KT LOWER
THAN TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOT AND DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORY
VERIFYING IN A FEW SPOTS ALREADY...PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS MEXICO TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN...AND WITH MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT OR A DEG WARMER THAN TODAY
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING MAY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE POSSIBLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
CHANCE RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7 IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79 101  76 100  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77 101  74 100  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 103  74 101  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  72  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100  77 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  99  74  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  99  72  98  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77 101  75  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79 102  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80 101  77 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 102  76 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 220431
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1130 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

NAM and GFS models are not as aggressive with 950 MB moisture
return overnight. Delayed MVFR stratus return along the I-10
corridor until 11Z, and kept only a scattered layer at KSJT
Friday morning. Lee trough will be slightly weaker Friday and
brought down wind gust speeds around 2 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

UPDATE...
Diurnal convection remained to the west of the area again today,
with partly cloudy and hot conditions being the rule across the
CWA. Temperatures topped out in the mid/upper 90s in most
locations, with a few triple digit reports in the northern Big
Country. Areas across the northwest Hill Country that experienced
significant rainfall earlier this week saw temperatures a bit
cooler, with highs in the lower 90s.

The forecast has been updated to remove mention of isolated
thunderstorms across the western half of Crockett County. In
addition, tonight`s min temps were raised a few degrees, more in
line with what we saw this morning. We may see some low clouds
advance north into the southern half of the CWA late tonight, but
any cloud cover will erode by mid-morning.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Status with MVFR stratus will again move north into the I-10
corridor early this morning, including the KSOA AND KJCT
terminals. San Angelo should also see MVFR stratus, from daybreak
through mid morning, as low level moisture moves north from the
Lower Rio Grande River Valley. Gusty south winds will affect the
region beginning mid morning Friday, but 2-3 KTS lower than today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through the
next 24 hours. An upper level ridge will remain centered across the
lower Mississippi Valley, with its influence extending well into
Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are once again forecast
to develop across portions of West Texas and eastern New Mexico late
this afternoon and early this evening. Most of this activity is
forecast to remain west of West Central Texas, but isolated showers
and thunderstorms were included for western Portions of Crockett
County. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower to mid 70s.
High temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 90s across
much of the Big Country and Heartland, to the mid 90s elsewhere.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

A large upper high will be centered over the lower and middle
Mississippi Valley this weekend through early next week, with a
short wave trough lifting north across the central and northern
Rockies over the weekend. Some convective development will be
possible across far west Texas this weekend where stronger southwest
flow aloft exists, but here in West Central Texas dry conditions
will continue with slightly above normal temperatures continuing.

Models show an upper level trough moving across the Rockies and
into the central and northern Plains Tuesday through Thursday of
next week. This system may drive a weak front in from the north
next Wednesday or Thursday and bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms to portions of the forecast area. Model confidence
regarding this scenario remains low at this time, so will maintain
a dry forecast through the extended period for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  72  96  73 /   5   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  71  96  72 /   5   5   0   5   5
Junction  74  95  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 220431
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1130 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

NAM and GFS models are not as aggressive with 950 MB moisture
return overnight. Delayed MVFR stratus return along the I-10
corridor until 11Z, and kept only a scattered layer at KSJT
Friday morning. Lee trough will be slightly weaker Friday and
brought down wind gust speeds around 2 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

UPDATE...
Diurnal convection remained to the west of the area again today,
with partly cloudy and hot conditions being the rule across the
CWA. Temperatures topped out in the mid/upper 90s in most
locations, with a few triple digit reports in the northern Big
Country. Areas across the northwest Hill Country that experienced
significant rainfall earlier this week saw temperatures a bit
cooler, with highs in the lower 90s.

The forecast has been updated to remove mention of isolated
thunderstorms across the western half of Crockett County. In
addition, tonight`s min temps were raised a few degrees, more in
line with what we saw this morning. We may see some low clouds
advance north into the southern half of the CWA late tonight, but
any cloud cover will erode by mid-morning.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Status with MVFR stratus will again move north into the I-10
corridor early this morning, including the KSOA AND KJCT
terminals. San Angelo should also see MVFR stratus, from daybreak
through mid morning, as low level moisture moves north from the
Lower Rio Grande River Valley. Gusty south winds will affect the
region beginning mid morning Friday, but 2-3 KTS lower than today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through the
next 24 hours. An upper level ridge will remain centered across the
lower Mississippi Valley, with its influence extending well into
Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are once again forecast
to develop across portions of West Texas and eastern New Mexico late
this afternoon and early this evening. Most of this activity is
forecast to remain west of West Central Texas, but isolated showers
and thunderstorms were included for western Portions of Crockett
County. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower to mid 70s.
High temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 90s across
much of the Big Country and Heartland, to the mid 90s elsewhere.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

A large upper high will be centered over the lower and middle
Mississippi Valley this weekend through early next week, with a
short wave trough lifting north across the central and northern
Rockies over the weekend. Some convective development will be
possible across far west Texas this weekend where stronger southwest
flow aloft exists, but here in West Central Texas dry conditions
will continue with slightly above normal temperatures continuing.

Models show an upper level trough moving across the Rockies and
into the central and northern Plains Tuesday through Thursday of
next week. This system may drive a weak front in from the north
next Wednesday or Thursday and bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms to portions of the forecast area. Model confidence
regarding this scenario remains low at this time, so will maintain
a dry forecast through the extended period for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  72  96  73 /   5   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  71  96  72 /   5   5   0   5   5
Junction  74  95  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04








000
FXUS64 KMAF 220429
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1129 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will slowly decrease with time, but will also not
affect any area TAF sites.  VFR conditions are expected to prevail
tonight through Friday.  Thunderstorms will develop again Friday
afternoon, but probabilities are too low to include at any TAF
sites attm.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern boarder of
California and northern Mexico with an upper ridge over the Gulf
coast states. This is resulting in southwest flow the Texas
panhandle and eastern New Mexico which is bringing in mid-level
subtropical moisture. The increase in moisture along with an
increase in omega values across the Big Bend region, southeast New
Mexico, and the Guadalupe Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across this area this afternoon. Thunderstorms will
also be possible today across most of the Permian Basin and the
Davis Mountains with CAPE values around or above 2,000 J/kg. Bulk
shear values will be low across the whole area so not expecting
widespread severe development. Upper level winds are still fairly
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding. The PWAT value on the
12z MAF sounding was 1.45 which would support heavy rain. High
temperatures today will be near normal and similar to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and mostly western portions of the CWA
through the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern
extent of the precipitation will depend on the strength and
placement of the upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of
next week, an upper trough will move over the Central/Northern
Plains which which will cause the upper ridge to shift eastward and
weaken over the CWA.  The GFS and ECMWF are differing greatly on the
timing and placement of this upper trough.  Temperatures will not
change too much through the forecast period and should remain near
normal despite the presence of a surface trough across eastern New
Mexico and West Texas.  The GFS indicates a cold front moving into
the area next Thursday as a result of the upper trough passing to
the north so will continue to monitor this.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 220429
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1129 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will slowly decrease with time, but will also not
affect any area TAF sites.  VFR conditions are expected to prevail
tonight through Friday.  Thunderstorms will develop again Friday
afternoon, but probabilities are too low to include at any TAF
sites attm.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern boarder of
California and northern Mexico with an upper ridge over the Gulf
coast states. This is resulting in southwest flow the Texas
panhandle and eastern New Mexico which is bringing in mid-level
subtropical moisture. The increase in moisture along with an
increase in omega values across the Big Bend region, southeast New
Mexico, and the Guadalupe Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across this area this afternoon. Thunderstorms will
also be possible today across most of the Permian Basin and the
Davis Mountains with CAPE values around or above 2,000 J/kg. Bulk
shear values will be low across the whole area so not expecting
widespread severe development. Upper level winds are still fairly
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding. The PWAT value on the
12z MAF sounding was 1.45 which would support heavy rain. High
temperatures today will be near normal and similar to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and mostly western portions of the CWA
through the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern
extent of the precipitation will depend on the strength and
placement of the upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of
next week, an upper trough will move over the Central/Northern
Plains which which will cause the upper ridge to shift eastward and
weaken over the CWA.  The GFS and ECMWF are differing greatly on the
timing and placement of this upper trough.  Temperatures will not
change too much through the forecast period and should remain near
normal despite the presence of a surface trough across eastern New
Mexico and West Texas.  The GFS indicates a cold front moving into
the area next Thursday as a result of the upper trough passing to
the north so will continue to monitor this.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 220429
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1129 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will slowly decrease with time, but will also not
affect any area TAF sites.  VFR conditions are expected to prevail
tonight through Friday.  Thunderstorms will develop again Friday
afternoon, but probabilities are too low to include at any TAF
sites attm.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern boarder of
California and northern Mexico with an upper ridge over the Gulf
coast states. This is resulting in southwest flow the Texas
panhandle and eastern New Mexico which is bringing in mid-level
subtropical moisture. The increase in moisture along with an
increase in omega values across the Big Bend region, southeast New
Mexico, and the Guadalupe Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across this area this afternoon. Thunderstorms will
also be possible today across most of the Permian Basin and the
Davis Mountains with CAPE values around or above 2,000 J/kg. Bulk
shear values will be low across the whole area so not expecting
widespread severe development. Upper level winds are still fairly
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding. The PWAT value on the
12z MAF sounding was 1.45 which would support heavy rain. High
temperatures today will be near normal and similar to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and mostly western portions of the CWA
through the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern
extent of the precipitation will depend on the strength and
placement of the upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of
next week, an upper trough will move over the Central/Northern
Plains which which will cause the upper ridge to shift eastward and
weaken over the CWA.  The GFS and ECMWF are differing greatly on the
timing and placement of this upper trough.  Temperatures will not
change too much through the forecast period and should remain near
normal despite the presence of a surface trough across eastern New
Mexico and West Texas.  The GFS indicates a cold front moving into
the area next Thursday as a result of the upper trough passing to
the north so will continue to monitor this.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 220429
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1129 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will slowly decrease with time, but will also not
affect any area TAF sites.  VFR conditions are expected to prevail
tonight through Friday.  Thunderstorms will develop again Friday
afternoon, but probabilities are too low to include at any TAF
sites attm.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern boarder of
California and northern Mexico with an upper ridge over the Gulf
coast states. This is resulting in southwest flow the Texas
panhandle and eastern New Mexico which is bringing in mid-level
subtropical moisture. The increase in moisture along with an
increase in omega values across the Big Bend region, southeast New
Mexico, and the Guadalupe Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across this area this afternoon. Thunderstorms will
also be possible today across most of the Permian Basin and the
Davis Mountains with CAPE values around or above 2,000 J/kg. Bulk
shear values will be low across the whole area so not expecting
widespread severe development. Upper level winds are still fairly
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding. The PWAT value on the
12z MAF sounding was 1.45 which would support heavy rain. High
temperatures today will be near normal and similar to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and mostly western portions of the CWA
through the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern
extent of the precipitation will depend on the strength and
placement of the upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of
next week, an upper trough will move over the Central/Northern
Plains which which will cause the upper ridge to shift eastward and
weaken over the CWA.  The GFS and ECMWF are differing greatly on the
timing and placement of this upper trough.  Temperatures will not
change too much through the forecast period and should remain near
normal despite the presence of a surface trough across eastern New
Mexico and West Texas.  The GFS indicates a cold front moving into
the area next Thursday as a result of the upper trough passing to
the north so will continue to monitor this.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/80

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000
FXUS64 KLUB 220424
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1124 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO
LINGER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KLBB LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
WE DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO AFFECT KLBB BEFORE DIMINISHING. INSTEAD VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE.
THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THE BEST PROSPECTS CURRENTLY APPEAR
TO BE WEST OF THE TERMINALS AND WE HAVE EXCLUDED ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 PM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME BISECTING THE CWA ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKE
YESTERDAY IT IS SHIFTING WWD AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING WORKS IN FROM
CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN PANHANDLES SSEWD INTO SE NM. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IS THICKENING A CU FIELD ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN SPLNS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
LEAST ISOLD T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE
IN THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...SLOWLY TAPERING
DOWN TO THE EAST...FALLING BELOW MENTION IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WINDS. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION WE SAW YESTERDAY AS STORMS CONSOLIDATED
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. STILL...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE MOST PART...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER SO WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THAT AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN AZ WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA. OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TX. THE MID-LVL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD STILL
BRUSH OUR WRN ZONES AND WITH DEEP-MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP NEAR THE STATE LINE...WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSSIBLE SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT
THIS THREAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE LINE. HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO UPPER 90S EAST.

LONG TERM...
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING...A NARROW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FOUND SCOOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
AS AN UPPER LOW /NOW IN THE DESERT SW/ LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE FORM
OF A FILLING WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THIS WAVE WILL MISS OUR
NWRN ZONES...DECENT HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-30 METERS WILL EDGE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES TO
GARNER TSTORMS. SWLY STEERING WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD STILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCALES OF THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SWRN PANHANDLE.

BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHEAR APART
AND THIN OUT WITHIN 20-30 KNOTS OF SWLY FLOW FROM 700-500MB. THIS
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SOLID PRECIP CHANCES EVEN AS A WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTS NNE FROM CHIHUAHUA AND REACHES OUR WRN ZONES BY PEAK HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS...PWATS OF 1.2 INCHES AND POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO
AT LEAST A FEW TSTORMS ON THE CAPROCK. THIS THEME PLAYS OUT IN A
SIMILAR FASHION ON SUNDAY MINUS ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE(S)...BUT
CONTINUED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY LATE-DAY TSTORMS.

MODEST HEIGHT RISES THEN UNFOLD ON MONDAY AS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER HIGH /STILL OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/ REACHES
THE SOUTH PLAINS. ECM AND GFS LOOK A BIT TOO ZEALOUS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES MON EVNG THRU TUE EVNG IN THIS OTHERWISE LESS FAVORABLE
SETUP...SO POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
BY WED/THU...A MODEST COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE CARDS FOR NOW
AS STUBBORN TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MOBILIZES EASTWARD.
PATTERN RECOGNITION TENDS TO ARGUE AGAINST POPS THIS FAR OUT AS
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND PASSING LARGELY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STEADY UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE IN PROVIDING US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. DISTANT NATURE OF THIS FRONT PRECLUDES ADDING PRECIP TO
THE GRIDS...BUT TEMPS WERE SCALED BACK A BIT AREA WIDE UNDER
LOWERING THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  60  89  62 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         69  93  63  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  93  63  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  92  63  88  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  93  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  92  64  89  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  65  90  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  98  71  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  96  66  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  97  70  98  70 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23





000
FXUS64 KLUB 220424
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1124 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO
LINGER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KLBB LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
WE DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO AFFECT KLBB BEFORE DIMINISHING. INSTEAD VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE.
THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THE BEST PROSPECTS CURRENTLY APPEAR
TO BE WEST OF THE TERMINALS AND WE HAVE EXCLUDED ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 PM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME BISECTING THE CWA ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKE
YESTERDAY IT IS SHIFTING WWD AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING WORKS IN FROM
CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN PANHANDLES SSEWD INTO SE NM. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IS THICKENING A CU FIELD ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN SPLNS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
LEAST ISOLD T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE
IN THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...SLOWLY TAPERING
DOWN TO THE EAST...FALLING BELOW MENTION IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WINDS. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION WE SAW YESTERDAY AS STORMS CONSOLIDATED
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. STILL...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE MOST PART...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER SO WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THAT AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN AZ WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA. OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TX. THE MID-LVL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD STILL
BRUSH OUR WRN ZONES AND WITH DEEP-MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP NEAR THE STATE LINE...WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSSIBLE SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT
THIS THREAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE LINE. HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO UPPER 90S EAST.

LONG TERM...
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING...A NARROW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FOUND SCOOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
AS AN UPPER LOW /NOW IN THE DESERT SW/ LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE FORM
OF A FILLING WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THIS WAVE WILL MISS OUR
NWRN ZONES...DECENT HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-30 METERS WILL EDGE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES TO
GARNER TSTORMS. SWLY STEERING WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD STILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCALES OF THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SWRN PANHANDLE.

BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHEAR APART
AND THIN OUT WITHIN 20-30 KNOTS OF SWLY FLOW FROM 700-500MB. THIS
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SOLID PRECIP CHANCES EVEN AS A WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTS NNE FROM CHIHUAHUA AND REACHES OUR WRN ZONES BY PEAK HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS...PWATS OF 1.2 INCHES AND POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO
AT LEAST A FEW TSTORMS ON THE CAPROCK. THIS THEME PLAYS OUT IN A
SIMILAR FASHION ON SUNDAY MINUS ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE(S)...BUT
CONTINUED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY LATE-DAY TSTORMS.

MODEST HEIGHT RISES THEN UNFOLD ON MONDAY AS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER HIGH /STILL OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/ REACHES
THE SOUTH PLAINS. ECM AND GFS LOOK A BIT TOO ZEALOUS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES MON EVNG THRU TUE EVNG IN THIS OTHERWISE LESS FAVORABLE
SETUP...SO POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
BY WED/THU...A MODEST COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE CARDS FOR NOW
AS STUBBORN TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MOBILIZES EASTWARD.
PATTERN RECOGNITION TENDS TO ARGUE AGAINST POPS THIS FAR OUT AS
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND PASSING LARGELY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STEADY UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE IN PROVIDING US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. DISTANT NATURE OF THIS FRONT PRECLUDES ADDING PRECIP TO
THE GRIDS...BUT TEMPS WERE SCALED BACK A BIT AREA WIDE UNDER
LOWERING THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  60  89  62 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         69  93  63  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  93  63  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  92  63  88  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  93  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  92  64  89  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  65  90  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  98  71  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  96  66  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  97  70  98  70 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23





000
FXUS64 KLUB 220424
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1124 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO
LINGER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KLBB LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
WE DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO AFFECT KLBB BEFORE DIMINISHING. INSTEAD VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE.
THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THE BEST PROSPECTS CURRENTLY APPEAR
TO BE WEST OF THE TERMINALS AND WE HAVE EXCLUDED ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 PM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME BISECTING THE CWA ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKE
YESTERDAY IT IS SHIFTING WWD AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING WORKS IN FROM
CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN PANHANDLES SSEWD INTO SE NM. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IS THICKENING A CU FIELD ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN SPLNS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
LEAST ISOLD T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE
IN THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...SLOWLY TAPERING
DOWN TO THE EAST...FALLING BELOW MENTION IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WINDS. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION WE SAW YESTERDAY AS STORMS CONSOLIDATED
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. STILL...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE MOST PART...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER SO WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THAT AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN AZ WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA. OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TX. THE MID-LVL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD STILL
BRUSH OUR WRN ZONES AND WITH DEEP-MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP NEAR THE STATE LINE...WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSSIBLE SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT
THIS THREAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE LINE. HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO UPPER 90S EAST.

LONG TERM...
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING...A NARROW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FOUND SCOOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
AS AN UPPER LOW /NOW IN THE DESERT SW/ LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE FORM
OF A FILLING WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THIS WAVE WILL MISS OUR
NWRN ZONES...DECENT HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-30 METERS WILL EDGE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES TO
GARNER TSTORMS. SWLY STEERING WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD STILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCALES OF THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SWRN PANHANDLE.

BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHEAR APART
AND THIN OUT WITHIN 20-30 KNOTS OF SWLY FLOW FROM 700-500MB. THIS
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SOLID PRECIP CHANCES EVEN AS A WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTS NNE FROM CHIHUAHUA AND REACHES OUR WRN ZONES BY PEAK HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS...PWATS OF 1.2 INCHES AND POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO
AT LEAST A FEW TSTORMS ON THE CAPROCK. THIS THEME PLAYS OUT IN A
SIMILAR FASHION ON SUNDAY MINUS ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE(S)...BUT
CONTINUED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY LATE-DAY TSTORMS.

MODEST HEIGHT RISES THEN UNFOLD ON MONDAY AS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER HIGH /STILL OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/ REACHES
THE SOUTH PLAINS. ECM AND GFS LOOK A BIT TOO ZEALOUS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES MON EVNG THRU TUE EVNG IN THIS OTHERWISE LESS FAVORABLE
SETUP...SO POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
BY WED/THU...A MODEST COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE CARDS FOR NOW
AS STUBBORN TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MOBILIZES EASTWARD.
PATTERN RECOGNITION TENDS TO ARGUE AGAINST POPS THIS FAR OUT AS
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND PASSING LARGELY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STEADY UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE IN PROVIDING US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. DISTANT NATURE OF THIS FRONT PRECLUDES ADDING PRECIP TO
THE GRIDS...BUT TEMPS WERE SCALED BACK A BIT AREA WIDE UNDER
LOWERING THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  60  89  62 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         69  93  63  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  93  63  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  92  63  88  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  93  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  92  64  89  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  65  90  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  98  71  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  96  66  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  97  70  98  70 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23





000
FXUS64 KLUB 220424
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1124 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO
LINGER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KLBB LATE THIS EVENING...BUT
WE DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO AFFECT KLBB BEFORE DIMINISHING. INSTEAD VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE.
THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THE BEST PROSPECTS CURRENTLY APPEAR
TO BE WEST OF THE TERMINALS AND WE HAVE EXCLUDED ANY MENTION IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 PM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME BISECTING THE CWA ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKE
YESTERDAY IT IS SHIFTING WWD AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING WORKS IN FROM
CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN PANHANDLES SSEWD INTO SE NM. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IS THICKENING A CU FIELD ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN SPLNS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
LEAST ISOLD T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE
IN THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...SLOWLY TAPERING
DOWN TO THE EAST...FALLING BELOW MENTION IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WINDS. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION WE SAW YESTERDAY AS STORMS CONSOLIDATED
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. STILL...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE MOST PART...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER SO WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THAT AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN AZ WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA. OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TX. THE MID-LVL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD STILL
BRUSH OUR WRN ZONES AND WITH DEEP-MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP NEAR THE STATE LINE...WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSSIBLE SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT
THIS THREAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE LINE. HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO UPPER 90S EAST.

LONG TERM...
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING...A NARROW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FOUND SCOOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
AS AN UPPER LOW /NOW IN THE DESERT SW/ LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE FORM
OF A FILLING WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THIS WAVE WILL MISS OUR
NWRN ZONES...DECENT HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-30 METERS WILL EDGE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES TO
GARNER TSTORMS. SWLY STEERING WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD STILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCALES OF THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SWRN PANHANDLE.

BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHEAR APART
AND THIN OUT WITHIN 20-30 KNOTS OF SWLY FLOW FROM 700-500MB. THIS
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SOLID PRECIP CHANCES EVEN AS A WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTS NNE FROM CHIHUAHUA AND REACHES OUR WRN ZONES BY PEAK HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS...PWATS OF 1.2 INCHES AND POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO
AT LEAST A FEW TSTORMS ON THE CAPROCK. THIS THEME PLAYS OUT IN A
SIMILAR FASHION ON SUNDAY MINUS ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE(S)...BUT
CONTINUED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY LATE-DAY TSTORMS.

MODEST HEIGHT RISES THEN UNFOLD ON MONDAY AS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER HIGH /STILL OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/ REACHES
THE SOUTH PLAINS. ECM AND GFS LOOK A BIT TOO ZEALOUS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES MON EVNG THRU TUE EVNG IN THIS OTHERWISE LESS FAVORABLE
SETUP...SO POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
BY WED/THU...A MODEST COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE CARDS FOR NOW
AS STUBBORN TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MOBILIZES EASTWARD.
PATTERN RECOGNITION TENDS TO ARGUE AGAINST POPS THIS FAR OUT AS
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND PASSING LARGELY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STEADY UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE IN PROVIDING US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. DISTANT NATURE OF THIS FRONT PRECLUDES ADDING PRECIP TO
THE GRIDS...BUT TEMPS WERE SCALED BACK A BIT AREA WIDE UNDER
LOWERING THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  60  89  62 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         69  93  63  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  93  63  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  92  63  88  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  93  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  92  64  89  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  65  90  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  98  71  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  96  66  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  97  70  98  70 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23





000
FXUS64 KAMA 220406
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1106 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW MORNING TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KTS. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR VCTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. AS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON GETS CLOSER WILL PUT THEM IN TAFS IF THEY`RE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT TERMINALS.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PLUME OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE OVER THE PANHANDLES AND SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM AROUND GUYMON TO DALHART
WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT NECESSARY TO GENERATE THESE STORMS SO EXPECT ANY STORMS TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS. WEAK SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THESE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND
GUST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE AREA
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S AND MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A MID-LEVEL UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER
LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
COVERAGE WILL BE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH SOUTH...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH OF THE AMA CWA. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE PRESENCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 220406
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1106 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW MORNING TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KTS. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR VCTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. AS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON GETS CLOSER WILL PUT THEM IN TAFS IF THEY`RE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT TERMINALS.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PLUME OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE OVER THE PANHANDLES AND SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM AROUND GUYMON TO DALHART
WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT NECESSARY TO GENERATE THESE STORMS SO EXPECT ANY STORMS TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS. WEAK SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THESE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND
GUST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE AREA
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S AND MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A MID-LEVEL UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER
LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
COVERAGE WILL BE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH SOUTH...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH OF THE AMA CWA. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE PRESENCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 220406
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1106 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW MORNING TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KTS. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR VCTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. AS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON GETS CLOSER WILL PUT THEM IN TAFS IF THEY`RE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT TERMINALS.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PLUME OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE OVER THE PANHANDLES AND SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM AROUND GUYMON TO DALHART
WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT NECESSARY TO GENERATE THESE STORMS SO EXPECT ANY STORMS TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS. WEAK SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THESE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND
GUST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE AREA
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S AND MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A MID-LEVEL UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER
LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
COVERAGE WILL BE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH SOUTH...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH OF THE AMA CWA. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE PRESENCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 220406
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1106 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW MORNING TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KTS. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR VCTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. AS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON GETS CLOSER WILL PUT THEM IN TAFS IF THEY`RE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT TERMINALS.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PLUME OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE OVER THE PANHANDLES AND SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM AROUND GUYMON TO DALHART
WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT NECESSARY TO GENERATE THESE STORMS SO EXPECT ANY STORMS TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS. WEAK SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THESE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND
GUST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE AREA
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S AND MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A MID-LEVEL UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER
LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
COVERAGE WILL BE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH SOUTH...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH OF THE AMA CWA. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE PRESENCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KHGX 220301
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1001 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST AND REASONING (SEE DISCUSSIONS BELOW) LOOKS GOOD AGAIN
THIS EVENING...SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DECKS OVER MORE RURAL (NON-METRO) HUBS
BETWEEN 10-13Z ...OR A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. RELATIVELY LOWER MOISTURE TODAY WILL
PICK UP A BIT TOMORROW BUT...WITH THE REGION BEING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY UPPER RIDGING...CHANCES
FOR ANY MENTIONABLE CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO PLACE WITHIN FRIDAY`S
TAF PACKAGE. A WEAKENED ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY LOWER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE/SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN OVER SE
TX THIS AFTN JUDGING BY THE DEW POINTS/LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE.
THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK (AND
LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND) AS THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. LATEST MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD THE RIDGE IN
PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT/POPS
NOT RETURNING UNTIL NEXT TUE/WED OR SO. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
NO REAL CHANGE WITH THE EXTENDED PART OF THE GRIDS (WHICH HAS
ISO/LOW POPS BACK IN STARTING EARLY MON MORNING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS).

THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE ALLOWED FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEAT INDICES THIS AFTN FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. BUT READINGS ARE
STILL WITHIN CRITERIA FOR EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW. 41

MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN
TO RELAX BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  99  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  97  77  97  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  92  84  92  84 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 220301
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1001 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST AND REASONING (SEE DISCUSSIONS BELOW) LOOKS GOOD AGAIN
THIS EVENING...SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DECKS OVER MORE RURAL (NON-METRO) HUBS
BETWEEN 10-13Z ...OR A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. RELATIVELY LOWER MOISTURE TODAY WILL
PICK UP A BIT TOMORROW BUT...WITH THE REGION BEING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY UPPER RIDGING...CHANCES
FOR ANY MENTIONABLE CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO PLACE WITHIN FRIDAY`S
TAF PACKAGE. A WEAKENED ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY LOWER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE/SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN OVER SE
TX THIS AFTN JUDGING BY THE DEW POINTS/LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE.
THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK (AND
LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND) AS THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. LATEST MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD THE RIDGE IN
PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT/POPS
NOT RETURNING UNTIL NEXT TUE/WED OR SO. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
NO REAL CHANGE WITH THE EXTENDED PART OF THE GRIDS (WHICH HAS
ISO/LOW POPS BACK IN STARTING EARLY MON MORNING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS).

THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE ALLOWED FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEAT INDICES THIS AFTN FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. BUT READINGS ARE
STILL WITHIN CRITERIA FOR EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW. 41

MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN
TO RELAX BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  99  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  97  77  97  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  92  84  92  84 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KCRP 220217
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
917 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING IN TO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE AREA. WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND INCREASING RH VALUES...THE RED FLAG WARNING
ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  97  78  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  99  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            82 105  81 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             78 101  77 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  94  82  89  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 103  75 102  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        79 100  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  94  81  90  82  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 220217
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
917 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING IN TO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE AREA. WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND INCREASING RH VALUES...THE RED FLAG WARNING
ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  97  78  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  99  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            82 105  81 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             78 101  77 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  94  82  89  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 103  75 102  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        79 100  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  94  81  90  82  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 220217
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
917 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING IN TO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE AREA. WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND INCREASING RH VALUES...THE RED FLAG WARNING
ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  97  78  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  99  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            82 105  81 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             78 101  77 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  94  82  89  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 103  75 102  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        79 100  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  94  81  90  82  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 220217
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
917 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING IN TO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE AREA. WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND INCREASING RH VALUES...THE RED FLAG WARNING
ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  97  78  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  99  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            82 105  81 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             78 101  77 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  94  82  89  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 103  75 102  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        79 100  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  94  81  90  82  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

LK/84...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KSJT 220152
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
852 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Diurnal convection remained to the west of the area again today,
with partly cloudy and hot conditions being the rule across the
CWA. Temperatures topped out in the mid/upper 90s in most
locations, with a few triple digit reports in the northern Big
Country. Areas across the northwest Hill Country that experienced
significant rainfall earlier this week saw temperatures a bit
cooler, with highs in the lower 90s.

The forecast has been updated to remove mention of isolated
thunderstorms across the western half of Crockett County. In
addition, tonight`s min temps were raised a few degrees, more in
line with what we saw this morning. We may see some low clouds
advance north into the southern half of the CWA late tonight, but
any cloud cover will erode by mid-morning.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Status with MVFR stratus will again move north into the I-10
corridor early this morning, including the KSOA AND KJCT
terminals. San Angelo should also see MVFR stratus, from daybreak
through mid morning, as low level moisture moves north from the
Lower Rio Grande River Valley. Gusty south winds will affect the
region beginning mid morning Friday, but 2-3 KTS lower than today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through the
next 24 hours. An upper level ridge will remain centered across the
lower Mississippi Valley, with its influence extending well into
Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are once again forecast
to develop across portions of West Texas and eastern New Mexico late
this afternoon and early this evening. Most of this activity is
forecast to remain west of West Central Texas, but isolated showers
and thunderstorms were included for western Portions of Crockett
County. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower to mid 70s.
High temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 90s across
much of the Big Country and Heartland, to the mid 90s elsewhere.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

A large upper high will be centered over the lower and middle
Mississippi Valley this weekend through early next week, with a
short wave trough lifting north across the central and northern
Rockies over the weekend. Some convective development will be
possible across far west Texas this weekend where stronger southwest
flow aloft exists, but here in West Central Texas dry conditions
will continue with slightly above normal temperatures continuing.

Models show an upper level trough moving across the Rockies and
into the central and northern Plains Tuesday through Thursday of
next week. This system may drive a weak front in from the north
next Wednesday or Thursday and bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms to portions of the forecast area. Model confidence
regarding this scenario remains low at this time, so will maintain
a dry forecast through the extended period for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  72  96  73 /   5   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  71  96  72 /   5   5   0   5   5
Junction  74  95  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25








000
FXUS64 KSJT 220152
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
852 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Diurnal convection remained to the west of the area again today,
with partly cloudy and hot conditions being the rule across the
CWA. Temperatures topped out in the mid/upper 90s in most
locations, with a few triple digit reports in the northern Big
Country. Areas across the northwest Hill Country that experienced
significant rainfall earlier this week saw temperatures a bit
cooler, with highs in the lower 90s.

The forecast has been updated to remove mention of isolated
thunderstorms across the western half of Crockett County. In
addition, tonight`s min temps were raised a few degrees, more in
line with what we saw this morning. We may see some low clouds
advance north into the southern half of the CWA late tonight, but
any cloud cover will erode by mid-morning.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Status with MVFR stratus will again move north into the I-10
corridor early this morning, including the KSOA AND KJCT
terminals. San Angelo should also see MVFR stratus, from daybreak
through mid morning, as low level moisture moves north from the
Lower Rio Grande River Valley. Gusty south winds will affect the
region beginning mid morning Friday, but 2-3 KTS lower than today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through the
next 24 hours. An upper level ridge will remain centered across the
lower Mississippi Valley, with its influence extending well into
Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are once again forecast
to develop across portions of West Texas and eastern New Mexico late
this afternoon and early this evening. Most of this activity is
forecast to remain west of West Central Texas, but isolated showers
and thunderstorms were included for western Portions of Crockett
County. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower to mid 70s.
High temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 90s across
much of the Big Country and Heartland, to the mid 90s elsewhere.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

A large upper high will be centered over the lower and middle
Mississippi Valley this weekend through early next week, with a
short wave trough lifting north across the central and northern
Rockies over the weekend. Some convective development will be
possible across far west Texas this weekend where stronger southwest
flow aloft exists, but here in West Central Texas dry conditions
will continue with slightly above normal temperatures continuing.

Models show an upper level trough moving across the Rockies and
into the central and northern Plains Tuesday through Thursday of
next week. This system may drive a weak front in from the north
next Wednesday or Thursday and bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms to portions of the forecast area. Model confidence
regarding this scenario remains low at this time, so will maintain
a dry forecast through the extended period for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  72  96  73 /   5   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  75  96  71  96  72 /   5   5   0   5   5
Junction  74  95  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25







000
FXUS64 KFWD 220102
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
802 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED NORTHWEST OF A MINERAL
WELLS TO GAINESVILLE LINE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE SENT AN UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY GRIDS.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 653 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KACT FRIDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KACT AROUND 09-10Z. SOME
SCATTERED STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE DFW METROPLEX BUT BKN CIGS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. THE MVFR CIGS AT KACT WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY
MIDDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.

82/JLD


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE WEAKEST. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE WEST AT 10 PERCENT AND ONLY MENTION IN THE
ZONES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE HEAT
A BIT MORE TOLERABLE.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE END OF AUGUST.



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  99  79 100  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              77  98  77  97  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             74  96  75  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            78 100  76 100  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  74  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  98  80 100  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           76  97  76  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  75  97  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73 100  73 100  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58









000
FXUS64 KFWD 220102
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
802 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED NORTHWEST OF A MINERAL
WELLS TO GAINESVILLE LINE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE SENT AN UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY GRIDS.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 653 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KACT FRIDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KACT AROUND 09-10Z. SOME
SCATTERED STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE DFW METROPLEX BUT BKN CIGS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. THE MVFR CIGS AT KACT WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY
MIDDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.

82/JLD


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE WEAKEST. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE WEST AT 10 PERCENT AND ONLY MENTION IN THE
ZONES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE HEAT
A BIT MORE TOLERABLE.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE END OF AUGUST.



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  99  79 100  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              77  98  77  97  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             74  96  75  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            78 100  76 100  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  74  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  98  80 100  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           76  97  76  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  75  97  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73 100  73 100  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58










000
FXUS64 KEWX 220045
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
745 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND EVERYWHERE HAS DROPPED
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED THE
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE FROM THESE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD VCSH WILL BE NEAR KDRT THROUGH 02Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH
GUSTY SURFACE AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 05Z AT ALL SITES.
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-15Z...BUT SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AS DAILY MIXING COMMENCES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE HIGHER AGL AND ONLY FROM
11-16Z FRIDAY AT KDRT. ALL SITES WILL SEE A RETURN TO MODERATELY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ABOUT 5KT LOWER
THAN TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOT AND DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORY
VERIFYING IN A FEW SPOTS ALREADY...PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS MEXICO TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN...AND WITH MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT OR A DEG WARMER THAN TODAY
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING MAY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE POSSIBLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
CHANCE RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7 IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79 101  76 100  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77 101  74 100  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 103  74 101  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  72  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100  77 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  99  74  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  99  72  98  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77 101  75  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79 102  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80 101  77 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 102  76 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 220045
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
745 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND EVERYWHERE HAS DROPPED
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED THE
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE FROM THESE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD VCSH WILL BE NEAR KDRT THROUGH 02Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH
GUSTY SURFACE AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 05Z AT ALL SITES.
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-15Z...BUT SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AS DAILY MIXING COMMENCES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE HIGHER AGL AND ONLY FROM
11-16Z FRIDAY AT KDRT. ALL SITES WILL SEE A RETURN TO MODERATELY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ABOUT 5KT LOWER
THAN TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOT AND DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORY
VERIFYING IN A FEW SPOTS ALREADY...PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS MEXICO TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN...AND WITH MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT OR A DEG WARMER THAN TODAY
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING MAY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE POSSIBLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
CHANCE RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7 IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79 101  76 100  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77 101  74 100  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 103  74 101  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  72  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100  77 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  99  74  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  99  72  98  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77 101  75  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79 102  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80 101  77 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 102  76 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 220045
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
745 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND EVERYWHERE HAS DROPPED
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED THE
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE FROM THESE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD VCSH WILL BE NEAR KDRT THROUGH 02Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH
GUSTY SURFACE AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 05Z AT ALL SITES.
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-15Z...BUT SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AS DAILY MIXING COMMENCES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE HIGHER AGL AND ONLY FROM
11-16Z FRIDAY AT KDRT. ALL SITES WILL SEE A RETURN TO MODERATELY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ABOUT 5KT LOWER
THAN TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOT AND DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORY
VERIFYING IN A FEW SPOTS ALREADY...PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS MEXICO TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN...AND WITH MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT OR A DEG WARMER THAN TODAY
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING MAY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE POSSIBLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
CHANCE RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7 IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79 101  76 100  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77 101  74 100  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 103  74 101  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  72  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100  77 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  99  74  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  99  72  98  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77 101  75  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79 102  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80 101  77 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 102  76 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KEWX 220045
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
745 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND EVERYWHERE HAS DROPPED
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED THE
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE FROM THESE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...HAVE
ADJUSTED HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD VCSH WILL BE NEAR KDRT THROUGH 02Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH
GUSTY SURFACE AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 05Z AT ALL SITES.
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-15Z...BUT SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AS DAILY MIXING COMMENCES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE HIGHER AGL AND ONLY FROM
11-16Z FRIDAY AT KDRT. ALL SITES WILL SEE A RETURN TO MODERATELY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ABOUT 5KT LOWER
THAN TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOT AND DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORY
VERIFYING IN A FEW SPOTS ALREADY...PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS MEXICO TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN...AND WITH MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT OR A DEG WARMER THAN TODAY
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING MAY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE POSSIBLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
CHANCE RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7 IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79 101  76 100  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77 101  74 100  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 103  74 101  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  72  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100  77 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  99  74  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  99  72  98  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77 101  75  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79 102  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80 101  77 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 102  76 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KHGX 220008
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
708 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR DECKS OVER MORE RURAL (NON-METRO) HUBS
BETWEEN 10-13Z ...OR A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. RELATIVELY LOWER MOISTURE TODAY WILL
PICK UP A BIT TOMORROW BUT...WITH THE REGION BEING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY UPPER RIDGING...CHANCES
FOR ANY MENTIONABLE CONVECTION ARE TOO LOW TO PLACE WITHIN FRIDAY`S
TAF PACKAGE. A WEAKENED ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR
SLIGHTLY LOWER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE/SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN OVER SE
TX THIS AFTN JUDGING BY THE DEW POINTS/LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE.
THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK (AND
LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND) AS THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. LATEST MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD THE RIDGE IN
PLACE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT/POPS
NOT RETURNING UNTIL NEXT TUE/WED OR SO. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
NO REAL CHANGE WITH THE EXTENDED PART OF THE GRIDS (WHICH HAS
ISO/LOW POPS BACK IN STARTING EARLY MON MORNING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS).

THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS TODAY HAVE ALLOWED FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEAT INDICES THIS AFTN FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. BUT READINGS ARE
STILL WITHIN CRITERIA FOR EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW. 41

&&

MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN
TO RELAX BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  99  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  97  77  97  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  92  84  92  84 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
LA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KFWD 212353 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KACT FRIDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KACT AROUND 09-10Z. SOME
SCATTERED STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE DFW METROPLEX BUT BKN CIGS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. THE MVFR CIGS AT KACT WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY
MIDDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE WEAKEST. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE WEST AT 10 PERCENT AND ONLY MENTION IN THE
ZONES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE HEAT
A BIT MORE TOLERABLE.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE END OF AUGUST.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  99  79 100  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              77  98  77  97  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             74  96  75  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            79 100  76 100  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  74  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  98  80 100  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           76  97  76  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  75  97  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73 100  73 100  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58






000
FXUS64 KFWD 212353 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KACT FRIDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KACT AROUND 09-10Z. SOME
SCATTERED STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE DFW METROPLEX BUT BKN CIGS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. THE MVFR CIGS AT KACT WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY
MIDDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE WEAKEST. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE WEST AT 10 PERCENT AND ONLY MENTION IN THE
ZONES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE HEAT
A BIT MORE TOLERABLE.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE END OF AUGUST.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  99  79 100  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              77  98  77  97  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             74  96  75  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            79 100  76 100  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  74  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  98  80 100  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           76  97  76  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  75  97  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73 100  73 100  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58






000
FXUS64 KFWD 212353 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KACT FRIDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KACT AROUND 09-10Z. SOME
SCATTERED STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE DFW METROPLEX BUT BKN CIGS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. THE MVFR CIGS AT KACT WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY
MIDDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE WEAKEST. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE WEST AT 10 PERCENT AND ONLY MENTION IN THE
ZONES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE HEAT
A BIT MORE TOLERABLE.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE END OF AUGUST.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  99  79 100  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              77  98  77  97  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             74  96  75  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            79 100  76 100  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  74  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  98  80 100  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           76  97  76  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  75  97  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73 100  73 100  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58






000
FXUS64 KFWD 212353 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KACT FRIDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KACT AROUND 09-10Z. SOME
SCATTERED STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE DFW METROPLEX BUT BKN CIGS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. THE MVFR CIGS AT KACT WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY
MIDDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE WEAKEST. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE WEST AT 10 PERCENT AND ONLY MENTION IN THE
ZONES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE HEAT
A BIT MORE TOLERABLE.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE END OF AUGUST.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  99  79 100  79 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              77  98  77  97  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             74  96  75  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            79 100  76 100  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  74  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            79  98  80 100  80 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           76  97  76  98  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  75  97  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73 100  73 100  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58






000
FXUS64 KCRP 212346 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...A RETURN OF MVFR STRATUS FOR CRP-ALI-VCT FROM 09Z-
14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY 25-30
KT SOUTHEAST WIND ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND TIMED TO DIMINISH AROUND 08Z AT LRD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING...AND SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO A WEAKER GRADIENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WHEN STRATUS MAY BECOME
BROKEN OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS...OTHERWISE ONLY FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO
BE SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON FRIDAY.

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
TO THE SOUTHERN BAYS WHILE SCEC CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE REST
OF THE MARINE ZONES. NO CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT SCA FOR BAYS TO
THE SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS UNTIL 03Z. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS INLAND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TRANSLATES WEST AND CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCEC CONDITIONS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEBB AND
LA SALLE COUNTIES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON FRIDAY
WITH MAINLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC (GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ADDS CREDENCE TO THE DETERMINISTIC)
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DRG THE PERIOD WL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVR THE ERN CONUS AND A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH OVR THE WRN CONUS. YET...THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY NWD DRG THE PERIOD AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING MSTR ADVECTION
OVER THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SELECT
GFS/ECMWF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES WL INCREASE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. WL FCST ISOLD CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-109F RANGE ANTICIPATED
FOR SATURDAY-MONDAY PERIOD. WL LOWER MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR YET ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 105F OR LESS. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND RH VALUES
MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS OVER THE WRN
CWA DRG THE LATE AFTN HOURS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  97  78  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  99  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            82 105  81 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             78 101  77 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  94  82  89  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 103  75 102  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        79 100  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  94  81  90  82  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 212346 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...A RETURN OF MVFR STRATUS FOR CRP-ALI-VCT FROM 09Z-
14Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY 25-30
KT SOUTHEAST WIND ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND TIMED TO DIMINISH AROUND 08Z AT LRD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING...AND SHIFT OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO A WEAKER GRADIENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WHEN STRATUS MAY BECOME
BROKEN OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS...OTHERWISE ONLY FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO
BE SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON FRIDAY.

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
TO THE SOUTHERN BAYS WHILE SCEC CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE REST
OF THE MARINE ZONES. NO CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT SCA FOR BAYS TO
THE SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS UNTIL 03Z. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS INLAND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TRANSLATES WEST AND CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCEC CONDITIONS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEBB AND
LA SALLE COUNTIES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON FRIDAY
WITH MAINLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC (GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ADDS CREDENCE TO THE DETERMINISTIC)
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DRG THE PERIOD WL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVR THE ERN CONUS AND A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH OVR THE WRN CONUS. YET...THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY NWD DRG THE PERIOD AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING MSTR ADVECTION
OVER THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SELECT
GFS/ECMWF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES WL INCREASE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. WL FCST ISOLD CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-109F RANGE ANTICIPATED
FOR SATURDAY-MONDAY PERIOD. WL LOWER MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR YET ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 105F OR LESS. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND RH VALUES
MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS OVER THE WRN
CWA DRG THE LATE AFTN HOURS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  97  78  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  99  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            82 105  81 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             78 101  77 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  94  82  89  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 103  75 102  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        79 100  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  94  81  90  82  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KEWX 212346
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLD VCSH WILL BE NEAR KDRT THROUGH 02Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH
GUSTY SURFACE AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 05Z AT ALL SITES.
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-15Z...BUT SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AS DAILY MIXING COMMENCES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE HIGHER AGL AND ONLY FROM
11-16Z FRIDAY AT KDRT. ALL SITES WILL SEE A RETURN TO MODERATELY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ABOUT 5KT LOWER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOT AND DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORY
VERIFYING IN A FEW SPOTS ALREADY...PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS MEXICO TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN...AND WITH MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT OR A DEG WARMER THAN TODAY
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING MAY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE POSSIBLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
CHANCE RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7 IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79 101  76 100  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77 101  74 100  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 103  74 101  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  72  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100  77 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  99  74  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  99  72  98  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77 101  75  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79 102  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80 101  77 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 102  76 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 212346
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLD VCSH WILL BE NEAR KDRT THROUGH 02Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH
GUSTY SURFACE AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 05Z AT ALL SITES.
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE I-35 SITES FROM
08-15Z...BUT SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AS DAILY MIXING COMMENCES LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE HIGHER AGL AND ONLY FROM
11-16Z FRIDAY AT KDRT. ALL SITES WILL SEE A RETURN TO MODERATELY
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ABOUT 5KT LOWER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOT AND DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORY
VERIFYING IN A FEW SPOTS ALREADY...PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS MEXICO TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN...AND WITH MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT OR A DEG WARMER THAN TODAY
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING MAY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE POSSIBLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
CHANCE RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7 IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79 101  76 100  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77 101  74 100  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 103  74 101  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  72  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100  77 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  99  74  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  99  72  98  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77 101  75  99  74 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79 102  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80 101  77 100  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 102  76 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KLUB 212345
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
645 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AND COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS KCDS HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF A DIRECT IMPACT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS. IT IS LESS CERTAIN WHETHER
OR NOT KLBB WILL SEE ANY MOIST CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST ATTM. HENCE...WE
HAVE KEPT KLBB CONVECTION FREE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. AFTER
TONIGHT/S ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WHETHER EITHER TERMINAL WILL
BE IMPACTED IS UNCLEAR. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM IMPACTS...VFR
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 PM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME BISECTING THE CWA ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKE
YESTERDAY IT IS SHIFTING WWD AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING WORKS IN FROM
CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN PANHANDLES SSEWD INTO SE NM. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IS THICKENING A CU FIELD ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN SPLNS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
LEAST ISOLD T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE
IN THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...SLOWLY TAPERING
DOWN TO THE EAST...FALLING BELOW MENTION IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WINDS. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION WE SAW YESTERDAY AS STORMS CONSOLIDATED
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. STILL...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE MOST PART...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER SO WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THAT AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN AZ WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA. OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TX. THE MID-LVL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD STILL
BRUSH OUR WRN ZONES AND WITH DEEP-MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP NEAR THE STATE LINE...WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSSIBLE SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT
THIS THREAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE LINE. HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO UPPER 90S EAST.

LONG TERM...
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING...A NARROW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FOUND SCOOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
AS AN UPPER LOW /NOW IN THE DESERT SW/ LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE FORM
OF A FILLING WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THIS WAVE WILL MISS OUR
NWRN ZONES...DECENT HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-30 METERS WILL EDGE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES TO
GARNER TSTORMS. SWLY STEERING WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD STILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCALES OF THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SWRN PANHANDLE.

BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHEAR APART
AND THIN OUT WITHIN 20-30 KNOTS OF SWLY FLOW FROM 700-500MB. THIS
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SOLID PRECIP CHANCES EVEN AS A WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTS NNE FROM CHIHUAHUA AND REACHES OUR WRN ZONES BY PEAK HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS...PWATS OF 1.2 INCHES AND POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO
AT LEAST A FEW TSTORMS ON THE CAPROCK. THIS THEME PLAYS OUT IN A
SIMILAR FASHION ON SUNDAY MINUS ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE(S)...BUT
CONTINUED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY LATE-DAY TSTORMS.

MODEST HEIGHT RISES THEN UNFOLD ON MONDAY AS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER HIGH /STILL OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/ REACHES
THE SOUTH PLAINS. ECM AND GFS LOOK A BIT TOO ZEALOUS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES MON EVNG THRU TUE EVNG IN THIS OTHERWISE LESS FAVORABLE
SETUP...SO POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
BY WED/THU...A MODEST COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE CARDS FOR NOW
AS STUBBORN TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MOBILIZES EASTWARD.
PATTERN RECOGNITION TENDS TO ARGUE AGAINST POPS THIS FAR OUT AS
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND PASSING LARGELY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STEADY UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE IN PROVIDING US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. DISTANT NATURE OF THIS FRONT PRECLUDES ADDING PRECIP TO
THE GRIDS...BUT TEMPS WERE SCALED BACK A BIT AREA WIDE UNDER
LOWERING THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  60  89  62 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         69  93  63  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  93  63  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  92  63  88  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  93  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  92  64  89  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  65  90  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  98  71  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  96  66  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  97  70  98  70 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23





000
FXUS64 KLUB 212345
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
645 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AND COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS KCDS HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF A DIRECT IMPACT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS. IT IS LESS CERTAIN WHETHER
OR NOT KLBB WILL SEE ANY MOIST CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST ATTM. HENCE...WE
HAVE KEPT KLBB CONVECTION FREE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. AFTER
TONIGHT/S ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WHETHER EITHER TERMINAL WILL
BE IMPACTED IS UNCLEAR. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM IMPACTS...VFR
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 PM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME BISECTING THE CWA ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKE
YESTERDAY IT IS SHIFTING WWD AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING WORKS IN FROM
CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN PANHANDLES SSEWD INTO SE NM. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IS THICKENING A CU FIELD ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN SPLNS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
LEAST ISOLD T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE
IN THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...SLOWLY TAPERING
DOWN TO THE EAST...FALLING BELOW MENTION IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WINDS. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION WE SAW YESTERDAY AS STORMS CONSOLIDATED
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. STILL...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE MOST PART...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER SO WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THAT AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN AZ WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA. OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TX. THE MID-LVL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD STILL
BRUSH OUR WRN ZONES AND WITH DEEP-MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP NEAR THE STATE LINE...WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSSIBLE SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT
THIS THREAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE LINE. HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO UPPER 90S EAST.

LONG TERM...
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING...A NARROW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FOUND SCOOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
AS AN UPPER LOW /NOW IN THE DESERT SW/ LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE FORM
OF A FILLING WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THIS WAVE WILL MISS OUR
NWRN ZONES...DECENT HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-30 METERS WILL EDGE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES TO
GARNER TSTORMS. SWLY STEERING WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD STILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCALES OF THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SWRN PANHANDLE.

BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHEAR APART
AND THIN OUT WITHIN 20-30 KNOTS OF SWLY FLOW FROM 700-500MB. THIS
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SOLID PRECIP CHANCES EVEN AS A WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTS NNE FROM CHIHUAHUA AND REACHES OUR WRN ZONES BY PEAK HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS...PWATS OF 1.2 INCHES AND POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO
AT LEAST A FEW TSTORMS ON THE CAPROCK. THIS THEME PLAYS OUT IN A
SIMILAR FASHION ON SUNDAY MINUS ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE(S)...BUT
CONTINUED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY LATE-DAY TSTORMS.

MODEST HEIGHT RISES THEN UNFOLD ON MONDAY AS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER HIGH /STILL OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/ REACHES
THE SOUTH PLAINS. ECM AND GFS LOOK A BIT TOO ZEALOUS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES MON EVNG THRU TUE EVNG IN THIS OTHERWISE LESS FAVORABLE
SETUP...SO POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
BY WED/THU...A MODEST COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE CARDS FOR NOW
AS STUBBORN TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MOBILIZES EASTWARD.
PATTERN RECOGNITION TENDS TO ARGUE AGAINST POPS THIS FAR OUT AS
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND PASSING LARGELY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STEADY UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE IN PROVIDING US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. DISTANT NATURE OF THIS FRONT PRECLUDES ADDING PRECIP TO
THE GRIDS...BUT TEMPS WERE SCALED BACK A BIT AREA WIDE UNDER
LOWERING THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  60  89  62 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         69  93  63  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  93  63  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  92  63  88  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  93  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  92  64  89  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  65  90  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  98  71  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  96  66  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  97  70  98  70 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23






000
FXUS64 KBRO 212335 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
635 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF HIGH CIRRUS
MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO...WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE CONTINUING AT BREEZY LEVELS. THE CIRRUS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOMORROW...CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY ARE
PREDICTED...ALTHOUGH LOWER CLOUDINESS SHOULD RULE. VFR IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST IS MOVING NORTHWEST INTO MEXICO
ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR
SHOWN IN THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.53 INCHES WERE
OBSERVED. THIS HAS LIMIT THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AT THIS TIME. SE WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
LLJ INCREASING BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS MIXING TO THE SFC LEADING TO
THIS BREEZE CONDITIONS. KEPT ONLY A LOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY AS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIGHTLY RETROGRADES WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL STAY IN
THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY LOWERING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE 100 WEST OF
HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX OR FEEL LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 108 TO 110. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SE WINDS TO REMAIN MODERATE
DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIED FORECAST OUT TIL THURSDAY WITH ESPECIALLY DRY AIR OVER GULF OF
MEXICO...BREEZY WINDY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AIDING IN
AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THIS SHIFTS THE 500MB
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL RIDGING FROM ITS PERCH ON THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL HELP RELAX THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PERSISTENT BREEZES AND MAKE SETTING UP A STRONGER
SEABREEZE FRONT DIFFICULT. GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DECENT FOR
CONVECTION BUT THE 850/700MB REGION IS PRETTY DRY AND THE LACK OF
EXTRA HELP FROM THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. SREF
AND MOS GUIDANCE AGREE AND THE RUN TO RUN TREND IS DRIER SO PARED
BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO A MORE FAVORED ZONE INSIDE OF A
FALFURRIAS SARITA RAYMONDVILLE TRIANGLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SUNDAY THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BUT THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP WITH 850/700MB FLOW SOURCING IN THE CURRENTLY RATHER
DRY WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION. PLAYED THE
TEMPS AND POPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE NEW FORECAST WITH A DRY
VALLEY AND SMALL AREA OF THE RANCHLANDS THAT MAY POP A LATE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SHOWER.

MONDAY THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING MORE NOTICEABLY AND ORIENTING MORE EAST TO
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER...ALTHOUGH STILL IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA
WILL BE LOWER WITH THE RIDGE MOVING AHEAD BUT WHEN GFS/ECMWF SHIFT
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE EASTERLY IT ONLY ADVECTS IN STILL
RELATIVELY DRY AIR. AMSU/SSMI BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER
ESTIMATES...GOES SOUNDER... ND CURRENT WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE APPEAR TO SUPPORT THAT CONCEPT WITH A FAIRLY DRY 850MB
LAYER ACROSS THAT ENTIRE REGION SO KEPT THE VALLEY DRY WITH ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF SEABREEZE SHOWERS OVER THE RANCHLANDS GIVEN THE
UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY A REINFORCING PACIFIC JET MAX BEGINS TO DIG WESTERN US
TROUGHING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHICH APPEARS TO FLATTEN
THE EASTERN US RIDGE. THIS LEADS TO DEEPER MORE EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION BUT STILL ONLY DRAWS IN THE DRY AIR FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
AND DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES MUCH. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATED
SLIGHTLY BY THE EASTERLY FLOW. KEPT POPS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FEELING THAT CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE PLAYING TOO BIG A ROLE AT
THAT RANGE COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PREVIOUS
DAYS EVENTS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF DID TREND CLOSER TO THE GFS. SET UP
THE FORECAST BASED ON A SYNOPTIC SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE
WHEREAS THE ECMWF FLATTENS AND DEEPENS RIDGING IN A WAY TO USHER IN
MUCH RICHER EASTERN GULF MOISTURE AND GFS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A
LITTLE HIGHER MID/LOW LEVEL RH VALUESBUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH IN TERMS
OF RICHNESS AND DEPTH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEA
BREEZE BUT I SUSPECT THAT LEE TROUGHING WILL BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST IN DAY 7 GUIDANCE AND BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP A BIT. WENT
WITH A NEARLY VALLEY WIDE 20 POP. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER
THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE SCEC OVER THE LAGUNA AND THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 4 FEET INTO TOMORROW AS THE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CURRENT
FORECASTS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

FIRE WEATHER...ON FRIDAY DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MOVE INLAND. RH VALUES BETWEEN 1000 TO 500 MB LOWER TO
AROUND 30 TO 25 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...THE SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUST UP TO 20 MPH. DUE TO THE DRY
FUELS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND MODERATE TO STRONG SE WINDS
INCREASING...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES BUT COULD ENHANCE FIRE DANGER MAY
BE ISSUED AS THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALSO LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR TOMORROW RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
ESPECIALLY FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND WESTERN STARR COUNTIES. RH
RECOVERIES FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80 PERCENT
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER REMAINING IN THE 70 PERCENT
RANGE.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 212335 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
635 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF HIGH CIRRUS
MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO...WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE CONTINUING AT BREEZY LEVELS. THE CIRRUS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOMORROW...CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY ARE
PREDICTED...ALTHOUGH LOWER CLOUDINESS SHOULD RULE. VFR IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST IS MOVING NORTHWEST INTO MEXICO
ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR
SHOWN IN THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.53 INCHES WERE
OBSERVED. THIS HAS LIMIT THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AT THIS TIME. SE WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
LLJ INCREASING BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS MIXING TO THE SFC LEADING TO
THIS BREEZE CONDITIONS. KEPT ONLY A LOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY AS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIGHTLY RETROGRADES WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL STAY IN
THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY LOWERING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE 100 WEST OF
HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX OR FEEL LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 108 TO 110. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SE WINDS TO REMAIN MODERATE
DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIED FORECAST OUT TIL THURSDAY WITH ESPECIALLY DRY AIR OVER GULF OF
MEXICO...BREEZY WINDY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AIDING IN
AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THIS SHIFTS THE 500MB
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL RIDGING FROM ITS PERCH ON THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL HELP RELAX THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PERSISTENT BREEZES AND MAKE SETTING UP A STRONGER
SEABREEZE FRONT DIFFICULT. GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DECENT FOR
CONVECTION BUT THE 850/700MB REGION IS PRETTY DRY AND THE LACK OF
EXTRA HELP FROM THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. SREF
AND MOS GUIDANCE AGREE AND THE RUN TO RUN TREND IS DRIER SO PARED
BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO A MORE FAVORED ZONE INSIDE OF A
FALFURRIAS SARITA RAYMONDVILLE TRIANGLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SUNDAY THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BUT THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP WITH 850/700MB FLOW SOURCING IN THE CURRENTLY RATHER
DRY WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION. PLAYED THE
TEMPS AND POPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE NEW FORECAST WITH A DRY
VALLEY AND SMALL AREA OF THE RANCHLANDS THAT MAY POP A LATE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SHOWER.

MONDAY THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING MORE NOTICEABLY AND ORIENTING MORE EAST TO
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER...ALTHOUGH STILL IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA
WILL BE LOWER WITH THE RIDGE MOVING AHEAD BUT WHEN GFS/ECMWF SHIFT
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE EASTERLY IT ONLY ADVECTS IN STILL
RELATIVELY DRY AIR. AMSU/SSMI BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER
ESTIMATES...GOES SOUNDER... ND CURRENT WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE APPEAR TO SUPPORT THAT CONCEPT WITH A FAIRLY DRY 850MB
LAYER ACROSS THAT ENTIRE REGION SO KEPT THE VALLEY DRY WITH ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF SEABREEZE SHOWERS OVER THE RANCHLANDS GIVEN THE
UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY A REINFORCING PACIFIC JET MAX BEGINS TO DIG WESTERN US
TROUGHING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHICH APPEARS TO FLATTEN
THE EASTERN US RIDGE. THIS LEADS TO DEEPER MORE EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION BUT STILL ONLY DRAWS IN THE DRY AIR FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
AND DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES MUCH. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATED
SLIGHTLY BY THE EASTERLY FLOW. KEPT POPS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FEELING THAT CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE PLAYING TOO BIG A ROLE AT
THAT RANGE COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PREVIOUS
DAYS EVENTS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF DID TREND CLOSER TO THE GFS. SET UP
THE FORECAST BASED ON A SYNOPTIC SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE
WHEREAS THE ECMWF FLATTENS AND DEEPENS RIDGING IN A WAY TO USHER IN
MUCH RICHER EASTERN GULF MOISTURE AND GFS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A
LITTLE HIGHER MID/LOW LEVEL RH VALUESBUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH IN TERMS
OF RICHNESS AND DEPTH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEA
BREEZE BUT I SUSPECT THAT LEE TROUGHING WILL BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST IN DAY 7 GUIDANCE AND BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP A BIT. WENT
WITH A NEARLY VALLEY WIDE 20 POP. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER
THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE SCEC OVER THE LAGUNA AND THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 4 FEET INTO TOMORROW AS THE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CURRENT
FORECASTS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

FIRE WEATHER...ON FRIDAY DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MOVE INLAND. RH VALUES BETWEEN 1000 TO 500 MB LOWER TO
AROUND 30 TO 25 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...THE SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUST UP TO 20 MPH. DUE TO THE DRY
FUELS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND MODERATE TO STRONG SE WINDS
INCREASING...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES BUT COULD ENHANCE FIRE DANGER MAY
BE ISSUED AS THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALSO LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR TOMORROW RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
ESPECIALLY FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND WESTERN STARR COUNTIES. RH
RECOVERIES FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80 PERCENT
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER REMAINING IN THE 70 PERCENT
RANGE.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 212335 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
635 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF HIGH CIRRUS
MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO...WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE CONTINUING AT BREEZY LEVELS. THE CIRRUS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOMORROW...CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY ARE
PREDICTED...ALTHOUGH LOWER CLOUDINESS SHOULD RULE. VFR IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST IS MOVING NORTHWEST INTO MEXICO
ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR
SHOWN IN THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.53 INCHES WERE
OBSERVED. THIS HAS LIMIT THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AT THIS TIME. SE WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
LLJ INCREASING BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS MIXING TO THE SFC LEADING TO
THIS BREEZE CONDITIONS. KEPT ONLY A LOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY AS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIGHTLY RETROGRADES WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL STAY IN
THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY LOWERING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE 100 WEST OF
HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX OR FEEL LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 108 TO 110. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SE WINDS TO REMAIN MODERATE
DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIED FORECAST OUT TIL THURSDAY WITH ESPECIALLY DRY AIR OVER GULF OF
MEXICO...BREEZY WINDY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AIDING IN
AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THIS SHIFTS THE 500MB
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL RIDGING FROM ITS PERCH ON THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL HELP RELAX THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PERSISTENT BREEZES AND MAKE SETTING UP A STRONGER
SEABREEZE FRONT DIFFICULT. GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DECENT FOR
CONVECTION BUT THE 850/700MB REGION IS PRETTY DRY AND THE LACK OF
EXTRA HELP FROM THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. SREF
AND MOS GUIDANCE AGREE AND THE RUN TO RUN TREND IS DRIER SO PARED
BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO A MORE FAVORED ZONE INSIDE OF A
FALFURRIAS SARITA RAYMONDVILLE TRIANGLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SUNDAY THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BUT THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP WITH 850/700MB FLOW SOURCING IN THE CURRENTLY RATHER
DRY WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION. PLAYED THE
TEMPS AND POPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE NEW FORECAST WITH A DRY
VALLEY AND SMALL AREA OF THE RANCHLANDS THAT MAY POP A LATE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SHOWER.

MONDAY THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING MORE NOTICEABLY AND ORIENTING MORE EAST TO
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER...ALTHOUGH STILL IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA
WILL BE LOWER WITH THE RIDGE MOVING AHEAD BUT WHEN GFS/ECMWF SHIFT
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE EASTERLY IT ONLY ADVECTS IN STILL
RELATIVELY DRY AIR. AMSU/SSMI BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER
ESTIMATES...GOES SOUNDER... ND CURRENT WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE APPEAR TO SUPPORT THAT CONCEPT WITH A FAIRLY DRY 850MB
LAYER ACROSS THAT ENTIRE REGION SO KEPT THE VALLEY DRY WITH ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF SEABREEZE SHOWERS OVER THE RANCHLANDS GIVEN THE
UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY A REINFORCING PACIFIC JET MAX BEGINS TO DIG WESTERN US
TROUGHING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHICH APPEARS TO FLATTEN
THE EASTERN US RIDGE. THIS LEADS TO DEEPER MORE EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION BUT STILL ONLY DRAWS IN THE DRY AIR FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
AND DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES MUCH. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATED
SLIGHTLY BY THE EASTERLY FLOW. KEPT POPS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FEELING THAT CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE PLAYING TOO BIG A ROLE AT
THAT RANGE COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PREVIOUS
DAYS EVENTS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF DID TREND CLOSER TO THE GFS. SET UP
THE FORECAST BASED ON A SYNOPTIC SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE
WHEREAS THE ECMWF FLATTENS AND DEEPENS RIDGING IN A WAY TO USHER IN
MUCH RICHER EASTERN GULF MOISTURE AND GFS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A
LITTLE HIGHER MID/LOW LEVEL RH VALUESBUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH IN TERMS
OF RICHNESS AND DEPTH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEA
BREEZE BUT I SUSPECT THAT LEE TROUGHING WILL BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST IN DAY 7 GUIDANCE AND BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP A BIT. WENT
WITH A NEARLY VALLEY WIDE 20 POP. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER
THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE SCEC OVER THE LAGUNA AND THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 4 FEET INTO TOMORROW AS THE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CURRENT
FORECASTS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

FIRE WEATHER...ON FRIDAY DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MOVE INLAND. RH VALUES BETWEEN 1000 TO 500 MB LOWER TO
AROUND 30 TO 25 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...THE SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUST UP TO 20 MPH. DUE TO THE DRY
FUELS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND MODERATE TO STRONG SE WINDS
INCREASING...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES BUT COULD ENHANCE FIRE DANGER MAY
BE ISSUED AS THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALSO LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR TOMORROW RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
ESPECIALLY FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND WESTERN STARR COUNTIES. RH
RECOVERIES FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80 PERCENT
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER REMAINING IN THE 70 PERCENT
RANGE.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KBRO 212335 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
635 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BATCH OF HIGH CIRRUS
MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO...WHILE SURFACE
WINDS ARE CONTINUING AT BREEZY LEVELS. THE CIRRUS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOMORROW...CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY ARE
PREDICTED...ALTHOUGH LOWER CLOUDINESS SHOULD RULE. VFR IS LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST IS MOVING NORTHWEST INTO MEXICO
ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR
SHOWN IN THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.53 INCHES WERE
OBSERVED. THIS HAS LIMIT THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AT THIS TIME. SE WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
LLJ INCREASING BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS MIXING TO THE SFC LEADING TO
THIS BREEZE CONDITIONS. KEPT ONLY A LOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY AS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIGHTLY RETROGRADES WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL STAY IN
THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY LOWERING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE 100 WEST OF
HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX OR FEEL LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 108 TO 110. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SE WINDS TO REMAIN MODERATE
DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIED FORECAST OUT TIL THURSDAY WITH ESPECIALLY DRY AIR OVER GULF OF
MEXICO...BREEZY WINDY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AIDING IN
AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THIS SHIFTS THE 500MB
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL RIDGING FROM ITS PERCH ON THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL HELP RELAX THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PERSISTENT BREEZES AND MAKE SETTING UP A STRONGER
SEABREEZE FRONT DIFFICULT. GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DECENT FOR
CONVECTION BUT THE 850/700MB REGION IS PRETTY DRY AND THE LACK OF
EXTRA HELP FROM THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. SREF
AND MOS GUIDANCE AGREE AND THE RUN TO RUN TREND IS DRIER SO PARED
BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO A MORE FAVORED ZONE INSIDE OF A
FALFURRIAS SARITA RAYMONDVILLE TRIANGLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SUNDAY THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BUT THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP WITH 850/700MB FLOW SOURCING IN THE CURRENTLY RATHER
DRY WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION. PLAYED THE
TEMPS AND POPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE NEW FORECAST WITH A DRY
VALLEY AND SMALL AREA OF THE RANCHLANDS THAT MAY POP A LATE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SHOWER.

MONDAY THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING MORE NOTICEABLY AND ORIENTING MORE EAST TO
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER...ALTHOUGH STILL IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA
WILL BE LOWER WITH THE RIDGE MOVING AHEAD BUT WHEN GFS/ECMWF SHIFT
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE EASTERLY IT ONLY ADVECTS IN STILL
RELATIVELY DRY AIR. AMSU/SSMI BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER
ESTIMATES...GOES SOUNDER... ND CURRENT WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE APPEAR TO SUPPORT THAT CONCEPT WITH A FAIRLY DRY 850MB
LAYER ACROSS THAT ENTIRE REGION SO KEPT THE VALLEY DRY WITH ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF SEABREEZE SHOWERS OVER THE RANCHLANDS GIVEN THE
UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY A REINFORCING PACIFIC JET MAX BEGINS TO DIG WESTERN US
TROUGHING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHICH APPEARS TO FLATTEN
THE EASTERN US RIDGE. THIS LEADS TO DEEPER MORE EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION BUT STILL ONLY DRAWS IN THE DRY AIR FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
AND DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES MUCH. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATED
SLIGHTLY BY THE EASTERLY FLOW. KEPT POPS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FEELING THAT CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE PLAYING TOO BIG A ROLE AT
THAT RANGE COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PREVIOUS
DAYS EVENTS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF DID TREND CLOSER TO THE GFS. SET UP
THE FORECAST BASED ON A SYNOPTIC SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE
WHEREAS THE ECMWF FLATTENS AND DEEPENS RIDGING IN A WAY TO USHER IN
MUCH RICHER EASTERN GULF MOISTURE AND GFS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A
LITTLE HIGHER MID/LOW LEVEL RH VALUESBUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH IN TERMS
OF RICHNESS AND DEPTH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEA
BREEZE BUT I SUSPECT THAT LEE TROUGHING WILL BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST IN DAY 7 GUIDANCE AND BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP A BIT. WENT
WITH A NEARLY VALLEY WIDE 20 POP. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER
THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE SCEC OVER THE LAGUNA AND THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 4 FEET INTO TOMORROW AS THE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CURRENT
FORECASTS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

FIRE WEATHER...ON FRIDAY DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MOVE INLAND. RH VALUES BETWEEN 1000 TO 500 MB LOWER TO
AROUND 30 TO 25 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...THE SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUST UP TO 20 MPH. DUE TO THE DRY
FUELS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND MODERATE TO STRONG SE WINDS
INCREASING...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES BUT COULD ENHANCE FIRE DANGER MAY
BE ISSUED AS THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALSO LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR TOMORROW RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
ESPECIALLY FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND WESTERN STARR COUNTIES. RH
RECOVERIES FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80 PERCENT
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER REMAINING IN THE 70 PERCENT
RANGE.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KMAF 212328
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be ongoing
convection near terminals this evening. Currently have scattered
SHRA/TSRA across the region with strong southerly winds in place.
Activity only affecting PEQ, INK and FST at the moment and think the
other terminals are okay for now, based on current radar trends.
Otherwise, will continue to monitor and amend when needed.
Thunderstorms chances will continue overnight and Friday but will
hold off on any mention in the TAF beyond this evening. VFR
conditions will prevail through Friday however this evenings
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall that will briefly reduce
vsbys. Winds will remain gusty at some sites for the next couple of
hours then increase once again Friday afternoon at MAF and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern boarder of
California and northern Mexico with an upper ridge over the Gulf
coast states.  This is resulting in southwest flow the Texas
panhandle and eastern New Mexico which is bringing in mid-level
subtropical moisture.  The increase in moisture along with an
increase in omega values across the Big Bend region, southeast New
Mexico, and the Guadalupe Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across this area this afternoon.  Thunderstorms will
also be possible today across most of the Permian Basin and the
Davis Mountains with CAPE values around or above 2,000 J/kg.  Bulk
shear values will be low across the whole area so not expecting
widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are still fairly
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  The PWAT value on the 12z
MAF sounding was 1.45 which would support heavy rain.  High
temperatures today will be near normal and similar to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and mostly western portions of the CWA
through the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern
extent of the precipitation will depend on the strength and
placement of the upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of
next week, an upper trough will move over the Central/Northern
Plains which which will cause the upper ridge to shift eastward and
weaken over the CWA.  The GFS and ECMWF are differing greatly on the
timing and placement of this upper trough.  Temperatures will not
change too much through the forecast period and should remain near
normal despite the presence of a surface trough across eastern New
Mexico and West Texas.  The GFS indicates a cold front moving into
the area next Thursday as a result of the upper trough passing to
the north so will continue to monitor this.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 212328
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will be ongoing
convection near terminals this evening. Currently have scattered
SHRA/TSRA across the region with strong southerly winds in place.
Activity only affecting PEQ, INK and FST at the moment and think the
other terminals are okay for now, based on current radar trends.
Otherwise, will continue to monitor and amend when needed.
Thunderstorms chances will continue overnight and Friday but will
hold off on any mention in the TAF beyond this evening. VFR
conditions will prevail through Friday however this evenings
thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall that will briefly reduce
vsbys. Winds will remain gusty at some sites for the next couple of
hours then increase once again Friday afternoon at MAF and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern boarder of
California and northern Mexico with an upper ridge over the Gulf
coast states.  This is resulting in southwest flow the Texas
panhandle and eastern New Mexico which is bringing in mid-level
subtropical moisture.  The increase in moisture along with an
increase in omega values across the Big Bend region, southeast New
Mexico, and the Guadalupe Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across this area this afternoon.  Thunderstorms will
also be possible today across most of the Permian Basin and the
Davis Mountains with CAPE values around or above 2,000 J/kg.  Bulk
shear values will be low across the whole area so not expecting
widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are still fairly
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  The PWAT value on the 12z
MAF sounding was 1.45 which would support heavy rain.  High
temperatures today will be near normal and similar to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and mostly western portions of the CWA
through the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern
extent of the precipitation will depend on the strength and
placement of the upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of
next week, an upper trough will move over the Central/Northern
Plains which which will cause the upper ridge to shift eastward and
weaken over the CWA.  The GFS and ECMWF are differing greatly on the
timing and placement of this upper trough.  Temperatures will not
change too much through the forecast period and should remain near
normal despite the presence of a surface trough across eastern New
Mexico and West Texas.  The GFS indicates a cold front moving into
the area next Thursday as a result of the upper trough passing to
the north so will continue to monitor this.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 212322 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. HAVE VCTS IN AT KAMA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THINK STORMS SHOULD STAY EAST OF KDHT/KGUY ALTHOUGH WILL WATCH
THEM AND AMMEND IF NECESSARY. AFTER STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL DIE OFF THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PLUME OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE OVER THE PANHANDLES AND SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM AROUND GUYMON TO DALHART
WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT NECESSARY TO GENERATE THESE STORMS SO EXPECT ANY STORMS TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS. WEAK SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THESE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND
GUST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE AREA
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S AND MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A MID-LEVEL UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER
LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
COVERAGE WILL BE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH SOUTH...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH OF THE AMA CWA. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE PRESENCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/09





000
FXUS64 KAMA 212322 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. HAVE VCTS IN AT KAMA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THINK STORMS SHOULD STAY EAST OF KDHT/KGUY ALTHOUGH WILL WATCH
THEM AND AMMEND IF NECESSARY. AFTER STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL DIE OFF THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PLUME OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE OVER THE PANHANDLES AND SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM AROUND GUYMON TO DALHART
WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT NECESSARY TO GENERATE THESE STORMS SO EXPECT ANY STORMS TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS. WEAK SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THESE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND
GUST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE AREA
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S AND MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A MID-LEVEL UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER
LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
COVERAGE WILL BE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH SOUTH...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH OF THE AMA CWA. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE PRESENCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/09





000
FXUS64 KAMA 212322 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. HAVE VCTS IN AT KAMA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THINK STORMS SHOULD STAY EAST OF KDHT/KGUY ALTHOUGH WILL WATCH
THEM AND AMMEND IF NECESSARY. AFTER STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL DIE OFF THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PLUME OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE OVER THE PANHANDLES AND SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM AROUND GUYMON TO DALHART
WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT NECESSARY TO GENERATE THESE STORMS SO EXPECT ANY STORMS TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS. WEAK SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THESE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND
GUST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE AREA
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S AND MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A MID-LEVEL UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER
LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
COVERAGE WILL BE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH SOUTH...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH OF THE AMA CWA. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE PRESENCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/09





000
FXUS64 KAMA 212322 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. HAVE VCTS IN AT KAMA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THINK STORMS SHOULD STAY EAST OF KDHT/KGUY ALTHOUGH WILL WATCH
THEM AND AMMEND IF NECESSARY. AFTER STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL DIE OFF THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PLUME OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE OVER THE PANHANDLES AND SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM AROUND GUYMON TO DALHART
WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT NECESSARY TO GENERATE THESE STORMS SO EXPECT ANY STORMS TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS. WEAK SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THESE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND
GUST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE AREA
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S AND MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A MID-LEVEL UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER
LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
COVERAGE WILL BE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH SOUTH...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH OF THE AMA CWA. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE PRESENCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/09





000
FXUS64 KSJT 212312
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
611 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Status with MVFR stratus will again move north into the I-10
corridor early this morning, including the KSOA AND KJCT
terminals. San Angelo should also see MVFR stratus, from daybreak
through mid morning, as low level moisture moves north from the
Lower Rio Grande River Valley. Gusty south winds will affect the
region beginning mid morning Friday, but 2-3 KTS lower than today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through the
next 24 hours. An upper level ridge will remain centered across the
lower Mississippi Valley, with its influence extending well into
Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are once again forecast
to develop across portions of West Texas and eastern New Mexico late
this afternoon and early this evening. Most of this activity is
forecast to remain west of West Central Texas, but isolated showers
and thunderstorms were included for western Portions of Crockett
County. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower to mid 70s.
High temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 90s across
much of the Big Country and Heartland, to the mid 90s elsewhere.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

A large upper high will be centered over the lower and middle
Mississippi Valley this weekend through early next week, with a
short wave trough lifting north across the central and northern
Rockies over the weekend. Some convective development will be
possible across far west Texas this weekend where stronger southwest
flow aloft exists, but here in West Central Texas dry conditions
will continue with slightly above normal temperatures continuing.

Models show an upper level trough moving across the Rockies and
into the central and northern Plains Tuesday through Thursday of
next week. This system may drive a weak front in from the north
next Wednesday or Thursday and bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms to portions of the forecast area. Model confidence
regarding this scenario remains low at this time, so will maintain
a dry forecast through the extended period for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  97  72  96  73 /   5   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  74  96  71  96  72 /   5   5   0   5   5
Junction  74  95  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 212312
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
611 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Status with MVFR stratus will again move north into the I-10
corridor early this morning, including the KSOA AND KJCT
terminals. San Angelo should also see MVFR stratus, from daybreak
through mid morning, as low level moisture moves north from the
Lower Rio Grande River Valley. Gusty south winds will affect the
region beginning mid morning Friday, but 2-3 KTS lower than today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through the
next 24 hours. An upper level ridge will remain centered across the
lower Mississippi Valley, with its influence extending well into
Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are once again forecast
to develop across portions of West Texas and eastern New Mexico late
this afternoon and early this evening. Most of this activity is
forecast to remain west of West Central Texas, but isolated showers
and thunderstorms were included for western Portions of Crockett
County. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower to mid 70s.
High temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 90s across
much of the Big Country and Heartland, to the mid 90s elsewhere.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

A large upper high will be centered over the lower and middle
Mississippi Valley this weekend through early next week, with a
short wave trough lifting north across the central and northern
Rockies over the weekend. Some convective development will be
possible across far west Texas this weekend where stronger southwest
flow aloft exists, but here in West Central Texas dry conditions
will continue with slightly above normal temperatures continuing.

Models show an upper level trough moving across the Rockies and
into the central and northern Plains Tuesday through Thursday of
next week. This system may drive a weak front in from the north
next Wednesday or Thursday and bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms to portions of the forecast area. Model confidence
regarding this scenario remains low at this time, so will maintain
a dry forecast through the extended period for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  97  72  96  73 /   5   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  74  96  71  96  72 /   5   5   0   5   5
Junction  74  95  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04








000
FXUS64 KAMA 212048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PLUME OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE OVER THE PANHANDLES AND SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM AROUND GUYMON TO DALHART
WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT NECESSARY TO GENERATE THESE STORMS SO EXPECT ANY STORMS TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS. WEAK SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THESE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND
GUST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE AREA
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S AND MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A MID-LEVEL UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER
LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
COVERAGE WILL BE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH SOUTH...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH OF THE AMA CWA. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE PRESENCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  93  65  91  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  72 100  68 100  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              67  94  64  92  62 /  20  20  30  10  20
BORGER TX                  74  97  70  95  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              69  97  67  94  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  68  93  64  92  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               72  96  67  94  67 /  20  10  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 66  93  63  91  62 /  20  20  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  70  97  66  97  66 /  20  20  30  20  20
HEREFORD TX                66  91  62  90  63 /  20  20  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                72  99  69  96  70 /  20  10  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   70  95  66  93  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                72  96  68  95  69 /  20  10  10  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              72  99  68  96  68 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

CLK/JDJ





000
FXUS64 KAMA 212048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
348 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PLUME OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE OVER THE PANHANDLES AND SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM AROUND GUYMON TO DALHART
WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
LIFT NECESSARY TO GENERATE THESE STORMS SO EXPECT ANY STORMS TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS. WEAK SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THESE STORMS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG WIND
GUST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE PRETTY MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE AREA
REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S AND MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AND WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIME A MID-LEVEL UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER
LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
COVERAGE WILL BE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH SOUTH...BUT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH OF THE AMA CWA. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE PRESENCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  93  65  91  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  72 100  68 100  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              67  94  64  92  62 /  20  20  30  10  20
BORGER TX                  74  97  70  95  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              69  97  67  94  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  68  93  64  92  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               72  96  67  94  67 /  20  10  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 66  93  63  91  62 /  20  20  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  70  97  66  97  66 /  20  20  30  20  20
HEREFORD TX                66  91  62  90  63 /  20  20  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                72  99  69  96  70 /  20  10  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   70  95  66  93  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                72  96  68  95  69 /  20  10  10  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              72  99  68  96  68 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

CLK/JDJ






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212046
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
246 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COUPLE OF MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WE
ARE IN FOR A STARK CHANGE IN WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT. COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARE POISED TO OUR SOUTH AND DUE TO STREAM
INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE RESULTING WEATHER SHOULD BE A LOT CLOUDIER...A LOT COOLER...
AND A LOT WETTER. FRIDAY LOWLAND TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
80 DEGREES UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE NORTH. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN
ONE-HALF AND ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL WORK IN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DAYTIME STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DO YOU SOMETIMES GET THE FEELING YOU ARE SURROUNDED? WELL...WE
ARE...BY DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST...SOUTH...AND EAST. FOR THE
IMMEDIATE TIME-BEING WE ARE DRY RELATIVE TO MONSOON NORMALS WITH
LESS THAN .90" OF PW ON THIS AM`S SOUNDING AND PM SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE L40S-N50. THAT IS JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT THE TYPICAL PM STORMS OF THE MONSOON SEASON THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS WE ARE SEEING ONLY FLAT TO MODERATE CU MOST
AREAS...INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THAT LURKING MOISTURE IS
SNEAKING INTO THE BOOTHEEL AND S HUDSPETH CO. THUS THOSE AREAS
POSE THE BEST SHOT OF AN ISOLATED STORM...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WE EXPECT THE "FLOODGATES" TO PART AND
BEGIN ALLOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO RUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
IS ALL ON AN ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A PACIFIC
LOW TO OUR WEST AND A GULF HIGH TO OUR EAST. PW`S ARE EXPECT TO
SHOOT UP TO 1.5O"-1.65". BECAUSE THIS MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SW
WE EXPECT THE SOUTHERN...AND WESTERN ZONES TO BEGIN RECEIVING PCPN
FIRST THIS EVENING WITH THE RAIN AND POSSIBLE STORMS TRACKING NE
INTO THE EASTERN GILA AND WESTERN SIERRA CO AND LUNA CO AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO SOME MOISTURE COULD SNEAK INTO HUDSPETH CO EARLY
ALSO. BY FRIDAY MORNING WE EXPECT THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME TO HAVE
SPREAD EAST OVER THE RIO GRAND VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
TULAROSA BASIN AND OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LATER IN THE DAY
THE FAR EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE QUITE MOIST.

FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY`S. WE EXPECT
THICK AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE
A BIT COOLER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS AS THE COOLER TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK WITH
ONLY A WEAK AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THUS RAINFALL
RATES WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH AN EXTENDED DURATION
VERSUS TYPICAL AUGUST RAIN EVENTS. GIVE ALL THE PARAMETERS THE
TOTAL RAIN FOR MANY AREAS LOOKS TO FALL WITHIN THE .25 TO .75 INCH
RANGE. SOME MAY GET AN INCH OR MORE OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS.

THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AS A TROUGH AND BEGIN TO SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS LATE FRIDAY. THIS BRINGS A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND EFFECTIVELY SHOVES THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST.
THE WEST ZONES WILL QUICKLY DRY ENDING RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ZONES SEE RAIN DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING. BY SATURDAY THE BEST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE
EAST ZONES WITH AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRAND STILL HAVING PCPN
CHANCES BUT THE AREAS TO THE WEST LIKELY BEING DRY. WE`LL SEE MORE
SUN AND TEMPS WILL WARM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BACK TO SEASONAL WEATHER. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE DRY TIME AND DRY AREAS THAN RAIN AS THE UPPER
LEVELS REMAIN UNDER A MORE W/SW FLOW PATTERN AS A BROAD STANDING
TROUGH HANGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OUR RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED AIRMASS STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY OVERNIGHTS AND MORNINGS. KIND OF THE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN.

WE`LL WATCH THE WED-THU PERIODS FOR A POTENTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH OFF A TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THAT MOISTURE`S
INTERACTION WITH A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT. THOSE TWO FEATURES MAY
ENHANCE AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THOSE DAYS.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z - 23/00Z...
MOSTLY VFR EARLY TONIGHT...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOST
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
TEMPO VSBY BLO 1SM IN +TSRA SCT-BKN010-040 BKN-OVC060-100 AND
WIND VRB25G45KTS. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THIS EVENING OVER THE GILA REGION AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

21-PARK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEST WINDS ALOFT THAT BROUGHT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND
TODAY ARE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE
UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA TO SPREAD ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GILA
REGION AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW
HEADS NORTHEAST AND OUR WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND. VERY HUMID TOMORROW WITH MINIMUM RH 40 TO 50
PERCENT OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR 60 PERCENT OVER AREA
MOUNTAINS THEN DROPPING BY 15 TO 20 POINTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HAINES INDICES VERY LOW (2 OR 3) TOMORROW AND SATURDAY.

21-PARK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  80  68  88  70 /  40  70  40  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  75  66  86  67 /  40  80  50  30   0
LAS CRUCES              66  78  65  86  66 /  50  70  40  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              65  77  64  89  65 /  30  80  50  20   0
CLOUDCROFT              50  61  48  67  47 /  30  90  60  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  76  64  82  65 /  40  30  30  10   0
SILVER CITY             58  74  56  80  58 /  50  40  30   0   0
DEMING                  65  79  64  85  65 /  60  40  30  10   0
LORDSBURG               64  79  63  84  64 /  50  30  30   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  79  68  87  69 /  40  70  40  20   0
DELL CITY               67  80  64  88  67 /  30  80  50  30   0
FORT HANCOCK            69  78  67  91  69 /  50  80  50  30   0
LOMA LINDA              66  77  64  83  67 /  40  70  50  30  10
FABENS                  70  79  65  90  67 /  40  70  40  30   0
SANTA TERESA            68  79  67  87  67 /  50  70  40  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  79  66  86  67 /  40  60  50  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           66  77  65  85  66 /  30  60  40  20   0
HATCH                   65  78  64  86  65 /  40  40  40  10   0
COLUMBUS                67  78  66  86  67 /  60  50  30  10   0
OROGRANDE               67  78  66  84  67 /  30  70  50  20   0
MAYHILL                 55  65  53  79  53 /  30  80  60  40  20
MESCALERO               55  68  53  78  53 /  30  80  50  40  20
TIMBERON                56  69  54  75  54 /  30  90  50  40  20
WINSTON                 52  70  50  80  53 /  40  50  30  10   0
HILLSBORO               61  75  59  83  62 /  40  50  30  10   0
SPACEPORT               65  76  64  83  65 /  30  40  40  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            57  73  55  79  58 /  50  40  30  10   0
HURLEY                  60  75  58  81  61 /  50  40  30   0   0
CLIFF                   59  76  54  81  52 /  40  30  30   0   0
MULE CREEK              56  76  51  78  51 /  40  40  30   0   0
FAYWOOD                 60  75  58  83  61 /  50  40  30  10   0
ANIMAS                  64  77  63  84  64 /  60  30  30   0   0
HACHITA                 64  79  63  85  64 /  60  30  30  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  75  61  84  62 /  60  40  30  10   0
CLOVERDALE              62  76  60  81  63 /  60  30  40   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/21






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212046
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
246 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COUPLE OF MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WE
ARE IN FOR A STARK CHANGE IN WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT. COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARE POISED TO OUR SOUTH AND DUE TO STREAM
INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE RESULTING WEATHER SHOULD BE A LOT CLOUDIER...A LOT COOLER...
AND A LOT WETTER. FRIDAY LOWLAND TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
80 DEGREES UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE NORTH. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN
ONE-HALF AND ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL WORK IN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DAYTIME STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DO YOU SOMETIMES GET THE FEELING YOU ARE SURROUNDED? WELL...WE
ARE...BY DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE WEST...SOUTH...AND EAST. FOR THE
IMMEDIATE TIME-BEING WE ARE DRY RELATIVE TO MONSOON NORMALS WITH
LESS THAN .90" OF PW ON THIS AM`S SOUNDING AND PM SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE L40S-N50. THAT IS JUST NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT THE TYPICAL PM STORMS OF THE MONSOON SEASON THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS WE ARE SEEING ONLY FLAT TO MODERATE CU MOST
AREAS...INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THAT LURKING MOISTURE IS
SNEAKING INTO THE BOOTHEEL AND S HUDSPETH CO. THUS THOSE AREAS
POSE THE BEST SHOT OF AN ISOLATED STORM...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WE EXPECT THE "FLOODGATES" TO PART AND
BEGIN ALLOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO RUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
IS ALL ON AN ENHANCED DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A PACIFIC
LOW TO OUR WEST AND A GULF HIGH TO OUR EAST. PW`S ARE EXPECT TO
SHOOT UP TO 1.5O"-1.65". BECAUSE THIS MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SW
WE EXPECT THE SOUTHERN...AND WESTERN ZONES TO BEGIN RECEIVING PCPN
FIRST THIS EVENING WITH THE RAIN AND POSSIBLE STORMS TRACKING NE
INTO THE EASTERN GILA AND WESTERN SIERRA CO AND LUNA CO AREAS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO SOME MOISTURE COULD SNEAK INTO HUDSPETH CO EARLY
ALSO. BY FRIDAY MORNING WE EXPECT THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME TO HAVE
SPREAD EAST OVER THE RIO GRAND VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
TULAROSA BASIN AND OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LATER IN THE DAY
THE FAR EASTERN AREAS SHOULD BE QUITE MOIST.

FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY`S. WE EXPECT
THICK AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE
A BIT COOLER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS AS THE COOLER TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK WITH
ONLY A WEAK AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THUS RAINFALL
RATES WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH AN EXTENDED DURATION
VERSUS TYPICAL AUGUST RAIN EVENTS. GIVE ALL THE PARAMETERS THE
TOTAL RAIN FOR MANY AREAS LOOKS TO FALL WITHIN THE .25 TO .75 INCH
RANGE. SOME MAY GET AN INCH OR MORE OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS.

THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP AS A TROUGH AND BEGIN TO SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS LATE FRIDAY. THIS BRINGS A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND EFFECTIVELY SHOVES THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST.
THE WEST ZONES WILL QUICKLY DRY ENDING RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ZONES SEE RAIN DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING. BY SATURDAY THE BEST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE
EAST ZONES WITH AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRAND STILL HAVING PCPN
CHANCES BUT THE AREAS TO THE WEST LIKELY BEING DRY. WE`LL SEE MORE
SUN AND TEMPS WILL WARM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BACK TO SEASONAL WEATHER. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE DRY TIME AND DRY AREAS THAN RAIN AS THE UPPER
LEVELS REMAIN UNDER A MORE W/SW FLOW PATTERN AS A BROAD STANDING
TROUGH HANGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OUR RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED AIRMASS STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY OVERNIGHTS AND MORNINGS. KIND OF THE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN.

WE`LL WATCH THE WED-THU PERIODS FOR A POTENTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH OFF A TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THAT MOISTURE`S
INTERACTION WITH A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR FRONT. THOSE TWO FEATURES MAY
ENHANCE AND INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THOSE DAYS.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z - 23/00Z...
MOSTLY VFR EARLY TONIGHT...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOST
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
TEMPO VSBY BLO 1SM IN +TSRA SCT-BKN010-040 BKN-OVC060-100 AND
WIND VRB25G45KTS. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THIS EVENING OVER THE GILA REGION AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

21-PARK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEST WINDS ALOFT THAT BROUGHT DRIER AIR TO THE REGION YESTERDAY AND
TODAY ARE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE
UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA TO SPREAD ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GILA
REGION AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WHERE NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW
HEADS NORTHEAST AND OUR WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW...THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND. VERY HUMID TOMORROW WITH MINIMUM RH 40 TO 50
PERCENT OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR 60 PERCENT OVER AREA
MOUNTAINS THEN DROPPING BY 15 TO 20 POINTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HAINES INDICES VERY LOW (2 OR 3) TOMORROW AND SATURDAY.

21-PARK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  80  68  88  70 /  40  70  40  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  75  66  86  67 /  40  80  50  30   0
LAS CRUCES              66  78  65  86  66 /  50  70  40  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              65  77  64  89  65 /  30  80  50  20   0
CLOUDCROFT              50  61  48  67  47 /  30  90  60  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  76  64  82  65 /  40  30  30  10   0
SILVER CITY             58  74  56  80  58 /  50  40  30   0   0
DEMING                  65  79  64  85  65 /  60  40  30  10   0
LORDSBURG               64  79  63  84  64 /  50  30  30   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  79  68  87  69 /  40  70  40  20   0
DELL CITY               67  80  64  88  67 /  30  80  50  30   0
FORT HANCOCK            69  78  67  91  69 /  50  80  50  30   0
LOMA LINDA              66  77  64  83  67 /  40  70  50  30  10
FABENS                  70  79  65  90  67 /  40  70  40  30   0
SANTA TERESA            68  79  67  87  67 /  50  70  40  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  79  66  86  67 /  40  60  50  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           66  77  65  85  66 /  30  60  40  20   0
HATCH                   65  78  64  86  65 /  40  40  40  10   0
COLUMBUS                67  78  66  86  67 /  60  50  30  10   0
OROGRANDE               67  78  66  84  67 /  30  70  50  20   0
MAYHILL                 55  65  53  79  53 /  30  80  60  40  20
MESCALERO               55  68  53  78  53 /  30  80  50  40  20
TIMBERON                56  69  54  75  54 /  30  90  50  40  20
WINSTON                 52  70  50  80  53 /  40  50  30  10   0
HILLSBORO               61  75  59  83  62 /  40  50  30  10   0
SPACEPORT               65  76  64  83  65 /  30  40  40  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            57  73  55  79  58 /  50  40  30  10   0
HURLEY                  60  75  58  81  61 /  50  40  30   0   0
CLIFF                   59  76  54  81  52 /  40  30  30   0   0
MULE CREEK              56  76  51  78  51 /  40  40  30   0   0
FAYWOOD                 60  75  58  83  61 /  50  40  30  10   0
ANIMAS                  64  77  63  84  64 /  60  30  30   0   0
HACHITA                 64  79  63  85  64 /  60  30  30  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          62  75  61  84  62 /  60  40  30  10   0
CLOVERDALE              62  76  60  81  63 /  60  30  40   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/21





000
FXUS64 KLUB 212044
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
3 PM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME BISECTING THE CWA ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKE
YESTERDAY IT IS SHIFTING WWD AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING WORKS IN FROM
CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN PANHANDLES SSEWD INTO SE NM. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IS THICKENING A CU FIELD ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN SPLNS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
LEAST ISOLD T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE
IN THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...SLOWLY TAPERING
DOWN TO THE EAST...FALLING BELOW MENTION IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WINDS. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION WE SAW YESTERDAY AS STORMS CONSOLIDATED
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. STILL...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE MOST PART...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER SO WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THAT AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN AZ WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA. OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TX. THE MID-LVL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD STILL
BRUSH OUR WRN ZONES AND WITH DEEP-MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP NEAR THE STATE LINE...WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSSIBLE SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT
THIS THREAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE LINE. HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO UPPER 90S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING...A NARROW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FOUND SCOOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
AS AN UPPER LOW /NOW IN THE DESERT SW/ LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE FORM
OF A FILLING WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THIS WAVE WILL MISS OUR
NWRN ZONES...DECENT HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-30 METERS WILL EDGE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES TO
GARNER TSTORMS. SWLY STEERING WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD STILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCALES OF THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SWRN PANHANDLE.

BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHEAR APART
AND THIN OUT WITHIN 20-30 KNOTS OF SWLY FLOW FROM 700-500MB. THIS
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SOLID PRECIP CHANCES EVEN AS A WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTS NNE FROM CHIHUAHUA AND REACHES OUR WRN ZONES BY PEAK HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS...PWATS OF 1.2 INCHES AND POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO
AT LEAST A FEW TSTORMS ON THE CAPROCK. THIS THEME PLAYS OUT IN A
SIMILAR FASHION ON SUNDAY MINUS ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE(S)...BUT
CONTINUED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY LATE-DAY TSTORMS.

MODEST HEIGHT RISES THEN UNFOLD ON MONDAY AS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER HIGH /STILL OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/ REACHES
THE SOUTH PLAINS. ECM AND GFS LOOK A BIT TOO ZEALOUS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES MON EVNG THRU TUE EVNG IN THIS OTHERWISE LESS FAVORABLE
SETUP...SO POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
BY WED/THU...A MODEST COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE CARDS FOR NOW
AS STUBBORN TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MOBILIZES EASTWARD.
PATTERN RECOGNITION TENDS TO ARGUE AGAINST POPS THIS FAR OUT AS
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND PASSING LARGELY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STEADY UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE IN PROVIDING US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. DISTANT NATURE OF THIS FRONT PRECLUDES ADDING PRECIP TO
THE GRIDS...BUT TEMPS WERE SCALED BACK A BIT AREA WIDE UNDER
LOWERING THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  60  89  62 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         69  93  63  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  93  63  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  92  63  88  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  93  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  92  64  89  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  65  90  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  98  71  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  96  66  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  97  70  98  70 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/93





000
FXUS64 KLUB 212044
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
3 PM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME BISECTING THE CWA ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKE
YESTERDAY IT IS SHIFTING WWD AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING WORKS IN FROM
CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN PANHANDLES SSEWD INTO SE NM. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IS THICKENING A CU FIELD ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN SPLNS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
LEAST ISOLD T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE
IN THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...SLOWLY TAPERING
DOWN TO THE EAST...FALLING BELOW MENTION IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WINDS. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION WE SAW YESTERDAY AS STORMS CONSOLIDATED
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. STILL...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE MOST PART...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER SO WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THAT AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN AZ WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA. OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TX. THE MID-LVL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD STILL
BRUSH OUR WRN ZONES AND WITH DEEP-MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP NEAR THE STATE LINE...WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSSIBLE SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT
THIS THREAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE LINE. HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO UPPER 90S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING...A NARROW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FOUND SCOOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
AS AN UPPER LOW /NOW IN THE DESERT SW/ LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE FORM
OF A FILLING WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THIS WAVE WILL MISS OUR
NWRN ZONES...DECENT HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-30 METERS WILL EDGE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES TO
GARNER TSTORMS. SWLY STEERING WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD STILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCALES OF THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SWRN PANHANDLE.

BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHEAR APART
AND THIN OUT WITHIN 20-30 KNOTS OF SWLY FLOW FROM 700-500MB. THIS
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SOLID PRECIP CHANCES EVEN AS A WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTS NNE FROM CHIHUAHUA AND REACHES OUR WRN ZONES BY PEAK HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS...PWATS OF 1.2 INCHES AND POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO
AT LEAST A FEW TSTORMS ON THE CAPROCK. THIS THEME PLAYS OUT IN A
SIMILAR FASHION ON SUNDAY MINUS ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE(S)...BUT
CONTINUED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY LATE-DAY TSTORMS.

MODEST HEIGHT RISES THEN UNFOLD ON MONDAY AS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER HIGH /STILL OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/ REACHES
THE SOUTH PLAINS. ECM AND GFS LOOK A BIT TOO ZEALOUS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES MON EVNG THRU TUE EVNG IN THIS OTHERWISE LESS FAVORABLE
SETUP...SO POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
BY WED/THU...A MODEST COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE CARDS FOR NOW
AS STUBBORN TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MOBILIZES EASTWARD.
PATTERN RECOGNITION TENDS TO ARGUE AGAINST POPS THIS FAR OUT AS
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND PASSING LARGELY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STEADY UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE IN PROVIDING US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. DISTANT NATURE OF THIS FRONT PRECLUDES ADDING PRECIP TO
THE GRIDS...BUT TEMPS WERE SCALED BACK A BIT AREA WIDE UNDER
LOWERING THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  60  89  62 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         69  93  63  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  93  63  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  92  63  88  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  93  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  92  64  89  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  65  90  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  98  71  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  96  66  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  97  70  98  70 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/93






000
FXUS64 KSJT 212042
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
341 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through the
next 24 hours. An upper level ridge will remain centered across the
lower Mississippi Valley, with its influence extending well into
Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are once again forecast
to develop across portions of West Texas and eastern New Mexico late
this afternoon and early this evening. Most of this activity is
forecast to remain west of West Central Texas, but isolated showers
and thunderstorms were included for western Portions of Crockett
County. Overnight lows will generally be in the lower to mid 70s.
High temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 90s across
much of the Big Country and Heartland, to the mid 90s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

A large upper high will be centered over the lower and middle
Mississippi Valley this weekend through early next week, with a
short wave trough lifting north across the central and northern
Rockies over the weekend. Some convective development will be
possible across far west Texas this weekend where stronger southwest
flow aloft exists, but here in West Central Texas dry conditions
will continue with slightly above normal temperatures continuing.

Models show an upper level trough moving across the Rockies and
into the central and northern Plains Tuesday through Thursday of
next week. This system may drive a weak front in from the north
next Wednesday or Thursday and bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms to portions of the forecast area. Model confidence
regarding this scenario remains low at this time, so will maintain
a dry forecast through the extended period for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  97  72  96  73 /   5   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  74  96  71  96  72 /   5   5   0   5   5
Junction  74  95  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels/JW







000
FXUS64 KCRP 212027
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
327 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WHEN STRATUS MAY BECOME
BROKEN OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS...OTHERWISE ONLY FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO
BE SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
TO THE SOUTHERN BAYS WHILE SCEC CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE REST
OF THE MARINE ZONES. NO CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT SCA FOR BAYS TO
THE SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS UNTIL 03Z. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS INLAND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TRANSLATES WEST AND CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCEC CONDITIONS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEBB AND
LA SALLE COUNTIES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON FRIDAY
WITH MAINLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC (GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ADDS CREDENCE TO THE DETERMINISTIC)
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DRG THE PERIOD WL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVR THE ERN CONUS AND A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH OVR THE WRN CONUS. YET...THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY NWD DRG THE PERIOD AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING MSTR ADVECTION
OVER THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SELECT
GFS/ECMWF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES WL INCREASE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. WL FCST ISOLD CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-109F RANGE ANTICIPATED
FOR SATURDAY-MONDAY PERIOD. WL LOWER MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR YET ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 105F OR LESS. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND RH VALUES
MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS OVER THE WRN
CWA DRG THE LATE AFTN HOURS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  97  78  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  99  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            82 105  81 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             78 101  77 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  94  82  89  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 103  75 102  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        79 100  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  94  81  90  82  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 212027
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
327 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WHEN STRATUS MAY BECOME
BROKEN OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS...OTHERWISE ONLY FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO
BE SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
TO THE SOUTHERN BAYS WHILE SCEC CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE REST
OF THE MARINE ZONES. NO CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT SCA FOR BAYS TO
THE SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS UNTIL 03Z. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS INLAND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TRANSLATES WEST AND CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCEC CONDITIONS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEBB AND
LA SALLE COUNTIES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON FRIDAY
WITH MAINLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC (GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ADDS CREDENCE TO THE DETERMINISTIC)
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DRG THE PERIOD WL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVR THE ERN CONUS AND A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH OVR THE WRN CONUS. YET...THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY NWD DRG THE PERIOD AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING MSTR ADVECTION
OVER THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SELECT
GFS/ECMWF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES WL INCREASE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. WL FCST ISOLD CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-109F RANGE ANTICIPATED
FOR SATURDAY-MONDAY PERIOD. WL LOWER MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR YET ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 105F OR LESS. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND RH VALUES
MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS OVER THE WRN
CWA DRG THE LATE AFTN HOURS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  97  78  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  99  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            82 105  81 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             78 101  77 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  94  82  89  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 103  75 102  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        79 100  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  94  81  90  82  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 212027
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
327 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WHEN STRATUS MAY BECOME
BROKEN OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS...OTHERWISE ONLY FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO
BE SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
TO THE SOUTHERN BAYS WHILE SCEC CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE REST
OF THE MARINE ZONES. NO CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT SCA FOR BAYS TO
THE SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS UNTIL 03Z. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS INLAND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TRANSLATES WEST AND CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCEC CONDITIONS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEBB AND
LA SALLE COUNTIES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON FRIDAY
WITH MAINLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC (GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ADDS CREDENCE TO THE DETERMINISTIC)
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DRG THE PERIOD WL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVR THE ERN CONUS AND A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH OVR THE WRN CONUS. YET...THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY NWD DRG THE PERIOD AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING MSTR ADVECTION
OVER THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SELECT
GFS/ECMWF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES WL INCREASE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. WL FCST ISOLD CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-109F RANGE ANTICIPATED
FOR SATURDAY-MONDAY PERIOD. WL LOWER MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR YET ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 105F OR LESS. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND RH VALUES
MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS OVER THE WRN
CWA DRG THE LATE AFTN HOURS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  97  78  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  99  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            82 105  81 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             78 101  77 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  94  82  89  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 103  75 102  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        79 100  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  94  81  90  82  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 212027
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
327 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL SEE BRIEF PERIODS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD WHEN STRATUS MAY BECOME
BROKEN OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS...OTHERWISE ONLY FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO
BE SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TO KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
TO THE SOUTHERN BAYS WHILE SCEC CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE REST
OF THE MARINE ZONES. NO CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT SCA FOR BAYS TO
THE SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS UNTIL 03Z. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS INLAND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TRANSLATES WEST AND CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST. EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCEC CONDITIONS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEBB AND
LA SALLE COUNTIES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON FRIDAY
WITH MAINLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC (GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ADDS CREDENCE TO THE DETERMINISTIC)
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DRG THE PERIOD WL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVR THE ERN CONUS AND A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH OVR THE WRN CONUS. YET...THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY NWD DRG THE PERIOD AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING MSTR ADVECTION
OVER THE CWA/MSA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SELECT
GFS/ECMWF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES WL INCREASE TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. WL FCST ISOLD CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-109F RANGE ANTICIPATED
FOR SATURDAY-MONDAY PERIOD. WL LOWER MAX TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR YET ANTICIPATE MAX HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 105F OR LESS. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND RH VALUES
MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS OVER THE WRN
CWA DRG THE LATE AFTN HOURS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  97  78  96  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  99  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            82 105  81 103  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             78 101  77 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  94  82  89  82  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 103  75 102  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        79 100  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  94  81  90  82  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KHGX 212025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE/SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN OVER SE
TX THIS AFTN JUDGING BY THE DEWPOINTS/LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE. THIS
TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK (AND LIKE-
LY THROUGH THE WEEKEND) AS THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH-
ERN GULF COAST. LATEST MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD THE RIDGE IN PLACE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT/POPS NOT RE-
TURNING UNTIL NEXT TUE/WED OR SO. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY NO
REAL CHANGE WITH THE EXTENDED PART OF THE GRIDS (WHICH HAS ISO/LOW
POPS BACK IN STARTING EARLY MON MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS).

THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY HAVE ALLOWED FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEAT INDICIES THIS AFTN FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. BUT READINGS ARE
STILL WITHIN CRITERIA FOR EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW. 41

&&

.
.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN
TO RELAX BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  99  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  97  77  97  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  92  84  92  84 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 212025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE/SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAKING ITS PRESENCE KNOWN OVER SE
TX THIS AFTN JUDGING BY THE DEWPOINTS/LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE. THIS
TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK (AND LIKE-
LY THROUGH THE WEEKEND) AS THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE NORTH-
ERN GULF COAST. LATEST MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD THE RIDGE IN PLACE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT/POPS NOT RE-
TURNING UNTIL NEXT TUE/WED OR SO. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY NO
REAL CHANGE WITH THE EXTENDED PART OF THE GRIDS (WHICH HAS ISO/LOW
POPS BACK IN STARTING EARLY MON MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS).

THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY HAVE ALLOWED FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER
HEAT INDICIES THIS AFTN FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. BUT READINGS ARE
STILL WITHIN CRITERIA FOR EXTENDING THE HEAT ADVISORY TOMORROW. 41

&&

.
.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN
TO RELAX BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  99  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  97  77  97  77 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  92  84  92  84 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 212020
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE WEAKEST. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE WEST AT 10 PERCENT AND ONLY MENTION IN THE
ZONES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE HEAT
A BIT MORE TOLERABLE.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE END OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
THE LAST BATCH OF STRAOCU WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ABOVE 4000 FT AS
IT MOVES NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. WE EXPECT FEW TO
SCATTERED CU TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

A 25 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE A
BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES. WE WILL STILL CARRY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT
THE METRO TERMINALS FROM 14 TO 17Z. WACO WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
AT SEEING MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 11 AND 17Z.

A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS
BETWEEN 12 AND 17 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  99  79 100  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              77  98  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  96  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            79 100  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  98  80 100  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           76  97  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  75  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73 100  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 212020
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE STATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE WEAKEST. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE
AFTERNOON POPS IN THE WEST AT 10 PERCENT AND ONLY MENTION IN THE
ZONES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE HEAT
A BIT MORE TOLERABLE.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS AS WE HEAD
INTO THE END OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
THE LAST BATCH OF STRAOCU WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ABOVE 4000 FT AS
IT MOVES NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. WE EXPECT FEW TO
SCATTERED CU TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

A 25 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE A
BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES. WE WILL STILL CARRY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT
THE METRO TERMINALS FROM 14 TO 17Z. WACO WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
AT SEEING MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 11 AND 17Z.

A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS
BETWEEN 12 AND 17 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  99  79 100  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              77  98  77  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             74  96  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            79 100  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  98  80 100  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           76  97  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         75  96  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            75  98  75  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73 100  73 100  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/79







000
FXUS64 KEWX 211957
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOT AND DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORY
VERIFYING IN A FEW SPOTS ALREADY...PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS MEXICO TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN...AND WITH MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT OR A DEG WARMER THAN TODAY
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING MAY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE POSSIBLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
CHANCE RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7 IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79 101  76 100  75 /   0  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77 101  74 100  73 /   0  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 103  74 101  73 /   0  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  72  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100  77 /   0  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  99  74  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  99  72  98  72 /   0  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77 101  75  99  74 /   0  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79 102  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80 101  77 100  76 /   0  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 102  76 101  75 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KEWX 211957
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
257 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...HOT AND DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPANDING
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEAT ADVISORY
VERIFYING IN A FEW SPOTS ALREADY...PEAKING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS MEXICO TO CLIP FAR
NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET.

WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED IN MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT AS 35 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS AROUND 80 DEGREES AGAIN...AND WITH MAX TEMPS AND
HEAT INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT OR A DEG WARMER THAN TODAY
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN HOT AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH AND ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING MAY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH
THURSDAY TO PROVIDE POSSIBLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH A
CHANCE RAIN. BUT CONFIDENCE ON DAY 7 IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79 101  76 100  75 /   0  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77 101  74 100  73 /   0  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 103  74 101  73 /   0  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  98  72  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100  77 /   0  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  99  74  98  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  99  72  98  72 /   0  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77 101  75  99  74 /   0  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   79 102  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80 101  77 100  76 /   0  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 102  76 101  75 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KBRO 211949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST IS MOVING NORTHWEST INTO MEXICO
ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR
SHOWN IN THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.53 INCHES WERE
OBSERVED. THIS HAS LIMIT THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AT THIS TIME. SE WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
LLJ INCREASING BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS MIXING TO THE SFC LEADING TO
THIS BREEZE CONDITIONS. KEPT ONLY A LOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY AS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIGHTLY RETROGRADES WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL STAY IN
THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY LOWERING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE 100 WEST OF
HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX OR FEEL LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 108 TO 110. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SE WINDS TO REMAIN MODERATE
DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIED FORECAST OUT TIL THURSDAY WITH ESPECIALLY DRY AIR OVER GULF OF
MEXICO...BREEZY WINDY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AIDING IN
AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THIS SHIFTS THE 500MB
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL RIDGING FROM ITS PERCH ON THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL HELP RELAX THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PERSISTENT BREEZES AND MAKE SETTING UP A STRONGER
SEABREEZE FRONT DIFFICULT. GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DECENT FOR
CONVECTION BUT THE 850/700MB REGION IS PRETTY DRY AND THE LACK OF
EXTRA HELP FROM THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. SREF
AND MOS GUIDANCE AGREE AND THE RUN TO RUN TREND IS DRIER SO PARED
BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO A MORE FAVORED ZONE INSIDE OF A
FALFURRIAS SARITA RAYMONDVILLE TRIANGLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SUNDAY THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BUT THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP WITH 850/700MB FLOW SOURCING IN THE CURRENTLY RATHER
DRY WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION. PLAYED THE
TEMPS AND POPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE NEW FORECAST WITH A DRY
VALLEY AND SMALL AREA OF THE RANCHLANDS THAT MAY POP A LATE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SHOWER.

MONDAY THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING MORE NOTICEABLY AND ORIENTING MORE EAST TO
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER...ALTHOUGH STILL IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA
WILL BE LOWER WITH THE RIDGE MOVING AHEAD BUT WHEN GFS/ECMWF SHIFT
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE EASTERLY IT ONLY ADVECTS IN STILL
RELATIVELY DRY AIR. AMSU/SSMI BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER
ESTIMATES...GOES SOUNDER... ND CURRENT WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE APPEAR TO SUPPORT THAT CONCEPT WITH A FAIRLY DRY 850MB
LAYER ACROSS THAT ENTIRE REGION SO KEPT THE VALLEY DRY WITH ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF SEABREEZE SHOWERS OVER THE RANCHLANDS GIVEN THE
UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY A REINFORCING PACIFIC JET MAX BEGINS TO DIG WESTERN US
TROUGHING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHICH APPEARS TO FLATTEN
THE EASTERN US RIDGE. THIS LEADS TO DEEPER MORE EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION BUT STILL ONLY DRAWS IN THE DRY AIR FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
AND DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES MUCH. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATED
SLIGHTLY BY THE EASTERLY FLOW. KEPT POPS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FEELING THAT CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE PLAYING TOO BIG A ROLE AT
THAT RANGE COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PREVIOUS
DAYS EVENTS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF DID TREND CLOSER TO THE GFS. SET UP
THE FORECAST BASED ON A SYNOPTIC SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE
WHEREAS THE ECMWF FLATTENS AND DEEPENS RIDGING IN A WAY TO USHER IN
MUCH RICHER EASTERN GULF MOISTURE AND GFS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A
LITTLE HIGHER MID/LOW LEVEL RH VALUESBUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH IN TERMS
OF RICHNESS AND DEPTH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEA
BREEZE BUT I SUSPECT THAT LEE TROUGHING WILL BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST IN DAY 7 GUIDANCE AND BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP A BIT. WENT
WITH A NEARLY VALLEY WIDE 20 POP. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER
THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE SCEC OVER THE LAGUNA AND THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 4 FEET INTO TOMORROW AS THE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CURRENT
FORECASTS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ON FRIDAY DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MOVE INLAND. RH VALUES BETWEEN 1000 TO 500 MB LOWER TO
AROUND 30 TO 25 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...THE SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUST UP TO 20 MPH. DUE TO THE DRY
FUELS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND MODERATE TO STRONG SE WINDS
INCREASING...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES BUT COULD ENHANCE FIRE DANGER MAY
BE ISSUED AS THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALSO LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR TOMORROW RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
ESPECIALLY FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND WESTERN STARR COUNTIES. RH
RECOVERIES FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80 PERCENT
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER REMAINING IN THE 70 PERCENT
RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  95  80  94 /  10  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          79  96  78  96 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            79  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              79 101  79 101 /  10   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 102  79 102 /  10   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  91  80  89 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES
LONG TERM...GIBBS
UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...BILLINGS






000
FXUS64 KBRO 211949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST IS MOVING NORTHWEST INTO MEXICO
ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR
SHOWN IN THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.53 INCHES WERE
OBSERVED. THIS HAS LIMIT THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AT THIS TIME. SE WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
LLJ INCREASING BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS MIXING TO THE SFC LEADING TO
THIS BREEZE CONDITIONS. KEPT ONLY A LOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY AS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIGHTLY RETROGRADES WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL STAY IN
THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY LOWERING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE 100 WEST OF
HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX OR FEEL LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 108 TO 110. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SE WINDS TO REMAIN MODERATE
DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIED FORECAST OUT TIL THURSDAY WITH ESPECIALLY DRY AIR OVER GULF OF
MEXICO...BREEZY WINDY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AIDING IN
AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THIS SHIFTS THE 500MB
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL RIDGING FROM ITS PERCH ON THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL HELP RELAX THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PERSISTENT BREEZES AND MAKE SETTING UP A STRONGER
SEABREEZE FRONT DIFFICULT. GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DECENT FOR
CONVECTION BUT THE 850/700MB REGION IS PRETTY DRY AND THE LACK OF
EXTRA HELP FROM THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. SREF
AND MOS GUIDANCE AGREE AND THE RUN TO RUN TREND IS DRIER SO PARED
BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO A MORE FAVORED ZONE INSIDE OF A
FALFURRIAS SARITA RAYMONDVILLE TRIANGLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SUNDAY THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BUT THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP WITH 850/700MB FLOW SOURCING IN THE CURRENTLY RATHER
DRY WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION. PLAYED THE
TEMPS AND POPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE NEW FORECAST WITH A DRY
VALLEY AND SMALL AREA OF THE RANCHLANDS THAT MAY POP A LATE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SHOWER.

MONDAY THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING MORE NOTICEABLY AND ORIENTING MORE EAST TO
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER...ALTHOUGH STILL IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA
WILL BE LOWER WITH THE RIDGE MOVING AHEAD BUT WHEN GFS/ECMWF SHIFT
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE EASTERLY IT ONLY ADVECTS IN STILL
RELATIVELY DRY AIR. AMSU/SSMI BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER
ESTIMATES...GOES SOUNDER... ND CURRENT WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE APPEAR TO SUPPORT THAT CONCEPT WITH A FAIRLY DRY 850MB
LAYER ACROSS THAT ENTIRE REGION SO KEPT THE VALLEY DRY WITH ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF SEABREEZE SHOWERS OVER THE RANCHLANDS GIVEN THE
UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY A REINFORCING PACIFIC JET MAX BEGINS TO DIG WESTERN US
TROUGHING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHICH APPEARS TO FLATTEN
THE EASTERN US RIDGE. THIS LEADS TO DEEPER MORE EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION BUT STILL ONLY DRAWS IN THE DRY AIR FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
AND DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES MUCH. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATED
SLIGHTLY BY THE EASTERLY FLOW. KEPT POPS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FEELING THAT CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE PLAYING TOO BIG A ROLE AT
THAT RANGE COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PREVIOUS
DAYS EVENTS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF DID TREND CLOSER TO THE GFS. SET UP
THE FORECAST BASED ON A SYNOPTIC SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE
WHEREAS THE ECMWF FLATTENS AND DEEPENS RIDGING IN A WAY TO USHER IN
MUCH RICHER EASTERN GULF MOISTURE AND GFS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A
LITTLE HIGHER MID/LOW LEVEL RH VALUESBUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH IN TERMS
OF RICHNESS AND DEPTH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEA
BREEZE BUT I SUSPECT THAT LEE TROUGHING WILL BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST IN DAY 7 GUIDANCE AND BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP A BIT. WENT
WITH A NEARLY VALLEY WIDE 20 POP. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER
THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE SCEC OVER THE LAGUNA AND THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 4 FEET INTO TOMORROW AS THE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CURRENT
FORECASTS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ON FRIDAY DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MOVE INLAND. RH VALUES BETWEEN 1000 TO 500 MB LOWER TO
AROUND 30 TO 25 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...THE SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUST UP TO 20 MPH. DUE TO THE DRY
FUELS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND MODERATE TO STRONG SE WINDS
INCREASING...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES BUT COULD ENHANCE FIRE DANGER MAY
BE ISSUED AS THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALSO LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR TOMORROW RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
ESPECIALLY FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND WESTERN STARR COUNTIES. RH
RECOVERIES FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80 PERCENT
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER REMAINING IN THE 70 PERCENT
RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  95  80  94 /  10  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          79  96  78  96 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            79  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              79 101  79 101 /  10   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 102  79 102 /  10   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  91  80  89 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES
LONG TERM...GIBBS
UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...BILLINGS






000
FXUS64 KBRO 211949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST IS MOVING NORTHWEST INTO MEXICO
ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR
SHOWN IN THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.53 INCHES WERE
OBSERVED. THIS HAS LIMIT THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AT THIS TIME. SE WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
LLJ INCREASING BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS MIXING TO THE SFC LEADING TO
THIS BREEZE CONDITIONS. KEPT ONLY A LOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY AS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIGHTLY RETROGRADES WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL STAY IN
THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY LOWERING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE 100 WEST OF
HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX OR FEEL LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 108 TO 110. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SE WINDS TO REMAIN MODERATE
DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIED FORECAST OUT TIL THURSDAY WITH ESPECIALLY DRY AIR OVER GULF OF
MEXICO...BREEZY WINDY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AIDING IN
AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THIS SHIFTS THE 500MB
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL RIDGING FROM ITS PERCH ON THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL HELP RELAX THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PERSISTENT BREEZES AND MAKE SETTING UP A STRONGER
SEABREEZE FRONT DIFFICULT. GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DECENT FOR
CONVECTION BUT THE 850/700MB REGION IS PRETTY DRY AND THE LACK OF
EXTRA HELP FROM THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. SREF
AND MOS GUIDANCE AGREE AND THE RUN TO RUN TREND IS DRIER SO PARED
BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO A MORE FAVORED ZONE INSIDE OF A
FALFURRIAS SARITA RAYMONDVILLE TRIANGLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SUNDAY THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BUT THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP WITH 850/700MB FLOW SOURCING IN THE CURRENTLY RATHER
DRY WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION. PLAYED THE
TEMPS AND POPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE NEW FORECAST WITH A DRY
VALLEY AND SMALL AREA OF THE RANCHLANDS THAT MAY POP A LATE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SHOWER.

MONDAY THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING MORE NOTICEABLY AND ORIENTING MORE EAST TO
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER...ALTHOUGH STILL IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA
WILL BE LOWER WITH THE RIDGE MOVING AHEAD BUT WHEN GFS/ECMWF SHIFT
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE EASTERLY IT ONLY ADVECTS IN STILL
RELATIVELY DRY AIR. AMSU/SSMI BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER
ESTIMATES...GOES SOUNDER... ND CURRENT WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE APPEAR TO SUPPORT THAT CONCEPT WITH A FAIRLY DRY 850MB
LAYER ACROSS THAT ENTIRE REGION SO KEPT THE VALLEY DRY WITH ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF SEABREEZE SHOWERS OVER THE RANCHLANDS GIVEN THE
UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY A REINFORCING PACIFIC JET MAX BEGINS TO DIG WESTERN US
TROUGHING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHICH APPEARS TO FLATTEN
THE EASTERN US RIDGE. THIS LEADS TO DEEPER MORE EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION BUT STILL ONLY DRAWS IN THE DRY AIR FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
AND DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES MUCH. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATED
SLIGHTLY BY THE EASTERLY FLOW. KEPT POPS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FEELING THAT CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE PLAYING TOO BIG A ROLE AT
THAT RANGE COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PREVIOUS
DAYS EVENTS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF DID TREND CLOSER TO THE GFS. SET UP
THE FORECAST BASED ON A SYNOPTIC SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE
WHEREAS THE ECMWF FLATTENS AND DEEPENS RIDGING IN A WAY TO USHER IN
MUCH RICHER EASTERN GULF MOISTURE AND GFS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A
LITTLE HIGHER MID/LOW LEVEL RH VALUESBUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH IN TERMS
OF RICHNESS AND DEPTH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEA
BREEZE BUT I SUSPECT THAT LEE TROUGHING WILL BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST IN DAY 7 GUIDANCE AND BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP A BIT. WENT
WITH A NEARLY VALLEY WIDE 20 POP. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER
THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE SCEC OVER THE LAGUNA AND THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 4 FEET INTO TOMORROW AS THE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CURRENT
FORECASTS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ON FRIDAY DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MOVE INLAND. RH VALUES BETWEEN 1000 TO 500 MB LOWER TO
AROUND 30 TO 25 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...THE SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUST UP TO 20 MPH. DUE TO THE DRY
FUELS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND MODERATE TO STRONG SE WINDS
INCREASING...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES BUT COULD ENHANCE FIRE DANGER MAY
BE ISSUED AS THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALSO LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR TOMORROW RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
ESPECIALLY FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND WESTERN STARR COUNTIES. RH
RECOVERIES FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80 PERCENT
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER REMAINING IN THE 70 PERCENT
RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  95  80  94 /  10  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          79  96  78  96 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            79  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              79 101  79 101 /  10   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 102  79 102 /  10   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  91  80  89 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES
LONG TERM...GIBBS
UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...BILLINGS






000
FXUS64 KBRO 211949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST IS MOVING NORTHWEST INTO MEXICO
ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR
SHOWN IN THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.53 INCHES WERE
OBSERVED. THIS HAS LIMIT THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AT THIS TIME. SE WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS EXPECTED DUE TO THE
LLJ INCREASING BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS MIXING TO THE SFC LEADING TO
THIS BREEZE CONDITIONS. KEPT ONLY A LOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY AS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIGHTLY RETROGRADES WEST. LOW TEMPS WILL STAY IN
THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY LOWERING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE 100 WEST OF
HWY 281 AND UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDEX OR FEEL LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN 108 TO 110. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SE WINDS TO REMAIN MODERATE
DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIED FORECAST OUT TIL THURSDAY WITH ESPECIALLY DRY AIR OVER GULF OF
MEXICO...BREEZY WINDY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST NAM/GFS/ECMWF ON A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND AIDING IN
AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THIS SHIFTS THE 500MB
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL RIDGING FROM ITS PERCH ON THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL HELP RELAX THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE PERSISTENT BREEZES AND MAKE SETTING UP A STRONGER
SEABREEZE FRONT DIFFICULT. GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DECENT FOR
CONVECTION BUT THE 850/700MB REGION IS PRETTY DRY AND THE LACK OF
EXTRA HELP FROM THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED. SREF
AND MOS GUIDANCE AGREE AND THE RUN TO RUN TREND IS DRIER SO PARED
BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO A MORE FAVORED ZONE INSIDE OF A
FALFURRIAS SARITA RAYMONDVILLE TRIANGLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SUNDAY THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BUT THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP WITH 850/700MB FLOW SOURCING IN THE CURRENTLY RATHER
DRY WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION. PLAYED THE
TEMPS AND POPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE NEW FORECAST WITH A DRY
VALLEY AND SMALL AREA OF THE RANCHLANDS THAT MAY POP A LATE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SHOWER.

MONDAY THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LOW LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS DECREASING MORE NOTICEABLY AND ORIENTING MORE EAST TO
WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER...ALTHOUGH STILL IN
THE MID/UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA
WILL BE LOWER WITH THE RIDGE MOVING AHEAD BUT WHEN GFS/ECMWF SHIFT
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW MORE EASTERLY IT ONLY ADVECTS IN STILL
RELATIVELY DRY AIR. AMSU/SSMI BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER
ESTIMATES...GOES SOUNDER... ND CURRENT WEATHER OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE APPEAR TO SUPPORT THAT CONCEPT WITH A FAIRLY DRY 850MB
LAYER ACROSS THAT ENTIRE REGION SO KEPT THE VALLEY DRY WITH ANOTHER
SMALL AREA OF SEABREEZE SHOWERS OVER THE RANCHLANDS GIVEN THE
UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY A REINFORCING PACIFIC JET MAX BEGINS TO DIG WESTERN US
TROUGHING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WHICH APPEARS TO FLATTEN
THE EASTERN US RIDGE. THIS LEADS TO DEEPER MORE EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION BUT STILL ONLY DRAWS IN THE DRY AIR FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
AND DOES NOT REALLY APPEAR TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES MUCH. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATED
SLIGHTLY BY THE EASTERLY FLOW. KEPT POPS A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FEELING THAT CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE PLAYING TOO BIG A ROLE AT
THAT RANGE COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT ABNORMALLY DRY AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY GFS/ECMWF STILL DIFFER IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE PREVIOUS
DAYS EVENTS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF DID TREND CLOSER TO THE GFS. SET UP
THE FORECAST BASED ON A SYNOPTIC SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE
WHEREAS THE ECMWF FLATTENS AND DEEPENS RIDGING IN A WAY TO USHER IN
MUCH RICHER EASTERN GULF MOISTURE AND GFS BRINGS IN AT LEAST A
LITTLE HIGHER MID/LOW LEVEL RH VALUESBUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH IN TERMS
OF RICHNESS AND DEPTH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEA
BREEZE BUT I SUSPECT THAT LEE TROUGHING WILL BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST IN DAY 7 GUIDANCE AND BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP A BIT. WENT
WITH A NEARLY VALLEY WIDE 20 POP. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER
THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE SCEC OVER THE LAGUNA AND THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO AROUND 4 FEET INTO TOMORROW AS THE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CURRENT
FORECASTS SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ON FRIDAY DRY AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL MOVE INLAND. RH VALUES BETWEEN 1000 TO 500 MB LOWER TO
AROUND 30 TO 25 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...THE SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUST UP TO 20 MPH. DUE TO THE DRY
FUELS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND MODERATE TO STRONG SE WINDS
INCREASING...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES BUT COULD ENHANCE FIRE DANGER MAY
BE ISSUED AS THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALSO LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR TOMORROW RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
ESPECIALLY FOR ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND WESTERN STARR COUNTIES. RH
RECOVERIES FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80 PERCENT
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER REMAINING IN THE 70 PERCENT
RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  95  80  94 /  10  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          79  96  78  96 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            79  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              79 101  79 101 /  10   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 102  79 102 /  10   0  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  91  80  89 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES
LONG TERM...GIBBS
UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...BILLINGS






000
FXUS64 KMAF 211926
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern boarder of
California and northern Mexico with an upper ridge over the Gulf
coast states.  This is resulting in southwest flow the Texas
panhandle and eastern New Mexico which is bringing in mid-level
subtropical moisture.  The increase in moisture along with an
increase in omega values across the Big Bend region, southeast New
Mexico, and the Guadalupe Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across this area this afternoon.  Thunderstorms will
also be possible today across most of the Permian Basin and the
Davis Mountains with CAPE values around or above 2,000 J/kg.  Bulk
shear values will be low across the whole area so not expecting
widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are still fairly
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  The PWAT value on the 12z
MAF sounding was 1.45 which would support heavy rain.  High
temperatures today will be near normal and similar to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and mostly western portions of the CWA
through the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern
extent of the precipitation will depend on the strength and
placement of the upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of
next week, an upper trough will move over the Central/Northern
Plains which which will cause the upper ridge to shift eastward and
weaken over the CWA.  The GFS and ECMWF are differing greatly on the
timing and placement of this upper trough.  Temperatures will not
change too much through the forecast period and should remain near
normal despite the presence of a surface trough across eastern New
Mexico and West Texas.  The GFS indicates a cold front moving into
the area next Thursday as a result of the upper trough passing to
the north so will continue to monitor this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  94  69  93  /  30  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              73  96  70  95  /  20  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                71  93  70  92  /  30  40  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  74 100  76  99  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  95  70  95  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  83  63  80  /  30  40  40  30
HOBBS NM                   68  91  67  90  /  30  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   62  88  60  85  /  40  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  95  71  94  /  20  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  73  95  71  94  /  20  20  20  20
WINK TX                    76  99  72  97  /  30  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/80

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
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000
FXUS64 KMAF 211926
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern boarder of
California and northern Mexico with an upper ridge over the Gulf
coast states.  This is resulting in southwest flow the Texas
panhandle and eastern New Mexico which is bringing in mid-level
subtropical moisture.  The increase in moisture along with an
increase in omega values across the Big Bend region, southeast New
Mexico, and the Guadalupe Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across this area this afternoon.  Thunderstorms will
also be possible today across most of the Permian Basin and the
Davis Mountains with CAPE values around or above 2,000 J/kg.  Bulk
shear values will be low across the whole area so not expecting
widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are still fairly
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  The PWAT value on the 12z
MAF sounding was 1.45 which would support heavy rain.  High
temperatures today will be near normal and similar to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and mostly western portions of the CWA
through the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern
extent of the precipitation will depend on the strength and
placement of the upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of
next week, an upper trough will move over the Central/Northern
Plains which which will cause the upper ridge to shift eastward and
weaken over the CWA.  The GFS and ECMWF are differing greatly on the
timing and placement of this upper trough.  Temperatures will not
change too much through the forecast period and should remain near
normal despite the presence of a surface trough across eastern New
Mexico and West Texas.  The GFS indicates a cold front moving into
the area next Thursday as a result of the upper trough passing to
the north so will continue to monitor this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  94  69  93  /  30  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              73  96  70  95  /  20  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                71  93  70  92  /  30  40  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  74 100  76  99  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  95  70  95  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  83  63  80  /  30  40  40  30
HOBBS NM                   68  91  67  90  /  30  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   62  88  60  85  /  40  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  95  71  94  /  20  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  73  95  71  94  /  20  20  20  20
WINK TX                    76  99  72  97  /  30  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/80

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland










000
FXUS64 KMAF 211926
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern boarder of
California and northern Mexico with an upper ridge over the Gulf
coast states.  This is resulting in southwest flow the Texas
panhandle and eastern New Mexico which is bringing in mid-level
subtropical moisture.  The increase in moisture along with an
increase in omega values across the Big Bend region, southeast New
Mexico, and the Guadalupe Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across this area this afternoon.  Thunderstorms will
also be possible today across most of the Permian Basin and the
Davis Mountains with CAPE values around or above 2,000 J/kg.  Bulk
shear values will be low across the whole area so not expecting
widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are still fairly
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  The PWAT value on the 12z
MAF sounding was 1.45 which would support heavy rain.  High
temperatures today will be near normal and similar to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and mostly western portions of the CWA
through the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern
extent of the precipitation will depend on the strength and
placement of the upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of
next week, an upper trough will move over the Central/Northern
Plains which which will cause the upper ridge to shift eastward and
weaken over the CWA.  The GFS and ECMWF are differing greatly on the
timing and placement of this upper trough.  Temperatures will not
change too much through the forecast period and should remain near
normal despite the presence of a surface trough across eastern New
Mexico and West Texas.  The GFS indicates a cold front moving into
the area next Thursday as a result of the upper trough passing to
the north so will continue to monitor this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  94  69  93  /  30  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              73  96  70  95  /  20  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                71  93  70  92  /  30  40  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  74 100  76  99  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  95  70  95  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  83  63  80  /  30  40  40  30
HOBBS NM                   68  91  67  90  /  30  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   62  88  60  85  /  40  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  95  71  94  /  20  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  73  95  71  94  /  20  20  20  20
WINK TX                    76  99  72  97  /  30  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/80

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland










000
FXUS64 KMAF 211926
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern boarder of
California and northern Mexico with an upper ridge over the Gulf
coast states.  This is resulting in southwest flow the Texas
panhandle and eastern New Mexico which is bringing in mid-level
subtropical moisture.  The increase in moisture along with an
increase in omega values across the Big Bend region, southeast New
Mexico, and the Guadalupe Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across this area this afternoon.  Thunderstorms will
also be possible today across most of the Permian Basin and the
Davis Mountains with CAPE values around or above 2,000 J/kg.  Bulk
shear values will be low across the whole area so not expecting
widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are still fairly
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  The PWAT value on the 12z
MAF sounding was 1.45 which would support heavy rain.  High
temperatures today will be near normal and similar to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and mostly western portions of the CWA
through the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern
extent of the precipitation will depend on the strength and
placement of the upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of
next week, an upper trough will move over the Central/Northern
Plains which which will cause the upper ridge to shift eastward and
weaken over the CWA.  The GFS and ECMWF are differing greatly on the
timing and placement of this upper trough.  Temperatures will not
change too much through the forecast period and should remain near
normal despite the presence of a surface trough across eastern New
Mexico and West Texas.  The GFS indicates a cold front moving into
the area next Thursday as a result of the upper trough passing to
the north so will continue to monitor this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  94  69  93  /  30  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              73  96  70  95  /  20  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                71  93  70  92  /  30  40  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  74 100  76  99  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  95  70  95  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  83  63  80  /  30  40  40  30
HOBBS NM                   68  91  67  90  /  30  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   62  88  60  85  /  40  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  95  71  94  /  20  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  73  95  71  94  /  20  20  20  20
WINK TX                    76  99  72  97  /  30  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/80

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http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland










000
FXUS64 KBRO 211755
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1255 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THE REST OF TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALLOWING FOR SE
WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS OVER THE TERMINALS. THE SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THE
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO TODAY VFR CONDITIONS ALSO
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 821 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OVER THE
LAGUNA MADRE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING TODAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS INTACT WITH HOT TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A BIT OF LIGHT GROUND FOG THIS MORNING AT HRL...
DESPITE A DECENT DEW POINT SPREAD AND SOME WIND....RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS THERE. VSBY AT HRL WILL IMPROVE WITH DAYLIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE LOWER RGV BY MID MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL DEVELOP...BUT CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY GET GOING JUST
BEFORE NOON...BUT KEPT OVERALL POPS SILENT FOR TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...A STUBBORN H5 HIGH HEIGHT
CENTER WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SAME AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND TO KEEP STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS WEST AND MORE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY...WINDS MIGHT BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MUTED AS DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...WITH PWAT SINKING BELOW 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE.

TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST BY MID
MORNING AS SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME MODERATE TO BREEZY. A WEAK
SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING...BUT POPS ARE SILENT
FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 90S EAST
TO THE CENTURY MARK AND ABOVE WEST OF U.S. 77 AND INLAND TO THE
UPPER VALLEY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 110...AND
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...A FEW LESS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A BIT MORE SUN AS RIDGING
OVER THE NORTH GULF SHIFTS WEST. TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ALLOWING RESIDENT RIDGING OVER THE GULF TO
AMPLIFY AND SHIFT FARTHER WEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL MIMIC THOSE OF
THURSDAY...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AND MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE AROUND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND
THEN WEAKEN AND HEAD NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE
AND LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE ON TOP OF US FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL SEE A FEW SURGES OF MOISTURE BEGINNING SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS
TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALBEIT NOT THE
GREATEST OF CHANCES. PWATS LOOK TO JUMP UP TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES
THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. AN UPPER TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF EARLY MONDAY THEN INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS TUESDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS LOOK REASONABLE DESPITE DECREASING PWATS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALL IN ALL DIDN`T PLAY MUCH WITH THE GOING POPS. EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORM INITIATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN BORDER...LOW 100S ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS IN ZAPATA
COUNTY...TO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY. SHAVED
A DEGREE OFF HIGHS HERE AND THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE SEA BREEZE MAY GET GOING AND CLOUD COVER WOULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT. WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL WITH THE BREEZIER DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY WHERE NEAR 20 MPH WILL
BE COMMON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS...AS WELL AS ON THE GULF WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT...BUT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. ISOLD SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON THE GULF BUT THE CONVECTIVE
SITUATION FOR THE MARINE AREAS LOOKS MUTED OVERALL IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS AND SEAS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST TOWARD EAST TEXAS...OR CLOSER
TO OVERHEAD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS COMPARED TO THIS WEEK SO
FAR...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS EACH DAY. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL FROM MODERATE
LEVELS SATURDAY TO LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/68






000
FXUS64 KBRO 211755
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1255 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THE REST OF TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ALLOWING FOR SE
WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS OVER THE TERMINALS. THE SE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT
BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THE
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO TODAY VFR CONDITIONS ALSO
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 821 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OVER THE
LAGUNA MADRE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING TODAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS INTACT WITH HOT TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A BIT OF LIGHT GROUND FOG THIS MORNING AT HRL...
DESPITE A DECENT DEW POINT SPREAD AND SOME WIND....RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS THERE. VSBY AT HRL WILL IMPROVE WITH DAYLIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE LOWER RGV BY MID MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL DEVELOP...BUT CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY GET GOING JUST
BEFORE NOON...BUT KEPT OVERALL POPS SILENT FOR TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...A STUBBORN H5 HIGH HEIGHT
CENTER WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SAME AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND TO KEEP STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS WEST AND MORE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY...WINDS MIGHT BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MUTED AS DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...WITH PWAT SINKING BELOW 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE.

TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST BY MID
MORNING AS SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME MODERATE TO BREEZY. A WEAK
SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING...BUT POPS ARE SILENT
FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 90S EAST
TO THE CENTURY MARK AND ABOVE WEST OF U.S. 77 AND INLAND TO THE
UPPER VALLEY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 110...AND
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...A FEW LESS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A BIT MORE SUN AS RIDGING
OVER THE NORTH GULF SHIFTS WEST. TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ALLOWING RESIDENT RIDGING OVER THE GULF TO
AMPLIFY AND SHIFT FARTHER WEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL MIMIC THOSE OF
THURSDAY...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AND MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE AROUND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND
THEN WEAKEN AND HEAD NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE
AND LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE ON TOP OF US FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL SEE A FEW SURGES OF MOISTURE BEGINNING SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS
TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALBEIT NOT THE
GREATEST OF CHANCES. PWATS LOOK TO JUMP UP TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES
THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. AN UPPER TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF EARLY MONDAY THEN INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS TUESDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS LOOK REASONABLE DESPITE DECREASING PWATS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALL IN ALL DIDN`T PLAY MUCH WITH THE GOING POPS. EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORM INITIATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN BORDER...LOW 100S ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS IN ZAPATA
COUNTY...TO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY. SHAVED
A DEGREE OFF HIGHS HERE AND THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE SEA BREEZE MAY GET GOING AND CLOUD COVER WOULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT. WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL WITH THE BREEZIER DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY WHERE NEAR 20 MPH WILL
BE COMMON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS...AS WELL AS ON THE GULF WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT...BUT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. ISOLD SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON THE GULF BUT THE CONVECTIVE
SITUATION FOR THE MARINE AREAS LOOKS MUTED OVERALL IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS AND SEAS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST TOWARD EAST TEXAS...OR CLOSER
TO OVERHEAD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS COMPARED TO THIS WEEK SO
FAR...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS EACH DAY. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL FROM MODERATE
LEVELS SATURDAY TO LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/68







000
FXUS64 KFWD 211745
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1245 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
THE LAST BATCH OF STRAOCU WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ABOVE 4000 FT AS
IT MOVES NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. WE EXPECT FEW TO
SCATTERED CU TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

A 25 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE A
BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES. WE WILL STILL CARRY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT
THE METRO TERMINALS FROM 14 TO 17Z. WACO WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
AT SEEING MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 11 AND 17Z.

A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS
BETWEEN 12 AND 17 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE REGION AS
DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A PARTLY CLOUDY
AND HOT AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
REMARKABLY STOUT LLJ FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (35-40KTS) HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT THIN) STRATUS ALONG THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. A FIBROUS DECK HAS INVADED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A FEW FRAGMENTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER DAYBREAK. AS THESE STRONG WINDS MIX WITH THE
SURFACE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING...WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN.
SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES...BUT THE WIND WILL HELP TAKE AN EDGE OFF THE
HEAT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...EXPECT
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TAKING A SHARP LEFT TURN INTO THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD FARTHER WEST THE PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEATLY STACKED VERTICALLY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM 10KFT ABOVE MSL TO AROUND 35KFT...WHICH WILL
ASSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ITS
INTENSITY IS STILL RATHER ORDINARY FOR AUGUST...AND ITS PLACEMENT
EAST OF TEXAS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL HEATING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER. THIS WILL REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FROM
WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...MEANING THAT ACHIEVING TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT. A NIGHTLY LLJ WILL
MEAN REPEATED STRATUS INTRUSIONS...PRIMARILY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL DO LITTLE TO
PREVENT HOT AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 100 BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105.

A PIECE OF UPPER VORTICITY IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE
TUTT SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH IT WILL
GUIDE IT NORTHWARD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE POLAR JET WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHEAR IT...BUT THE TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THE
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND SHOULD BE UNABLE TO
DISRUPT THE DEEP SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT.

AS THE UPPER LOW ENTERS CANADA...THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF
THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL MEAN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE MORNING
STRATUS AND WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE OPPRESSIVE...
BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW AND THE GFS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS IN THAT IT KEEPS THE FLOW UNIMPEDED. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE CONSENSUS FAVORS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED NORTH WINDS AND
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE WILL NOT
APPEAR IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.

25



&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES
AND WILL RESULT IN HIGHS BETWEEN THE MID 90S AND 102 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM BECOMING
TOO STRONG. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS FOR A HIGH FIRE DANGER...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE...DECATUR...COMANCHE LINE. FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT BOTH POSSUM KINGDOM RESERVOIR AND MILLER/S CREEK RAWS
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW 10...INDICATING SOME DRYING OF
FINE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST MAY SEE OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS BUT WILL ALSO SEE RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO MID TO UPPER 90S. THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

05

&&

.CLIMATE...
LATE AUGUST FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE REMARKABLY COMMON. ALTHOUGH NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES (BASED ON DFW DATA 1981-2010) GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER AUGUST 17 AT A STEADY RATE...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TELL A
DIFFERENT STORY.

DAILY NORMALS ARE CREATED USING A HARMONIC FIT...A METHOD EMPLOYED
TO DAMPEN OUTLIERS. THE RESULT ASSURES A SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM ONE
DAY TO THE NEXT...BUT THIS SMOOTHING REMOVES INTRICACIES IN THE DATA
THAT CAN REVEAL MORE ABRUPT SEASONAL TRANSITIONS. FOR EXAMPLE...MUCH
OF THE DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING LATE AUGUST OCCURS IN A
2-DAY SPAN BETWEEN AUGUST 26 AND 28.

THE DATA BELOW ARE BASED ON THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE RECORD
1981-2010.

               AVERAGE       NORMAL
             HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

AUGUST 26    97.4 / 75.4     95 / 74
AUGUST 28    93.5 / 73.4     94 / 74

THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE (1981-2010) ACTUALLY INCREASES BETWEEN
AUGUST 17 AND 26. THE SUDDEN 3.9-DEGREE DROP IN JUST 2 DAYS (AUGUST
26-28) IS THUS VERY SIGNIFICANT.

THESE ARE NOT SIMPLY ARTIFACTS OF A 30-YEAR DATA SET. USING THE
ENTIRE CLIMATE RECORD (WHICH BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER 1898) YIELDS A
DECREASE IN THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN AUGUST 17 AND 26
(1.2 DEGREES) THAT IS STILL LESS THAN THE 2-DAY SPAN AUGUST 26-28
(1.4 DEGREES). AND YES...WHEN INCORPORATING THE ENTIRE CLIMATE
RECORD OF MORE THAN A CENTURY OF DATA...THE TIME FRAME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT DROP REMAINS AUGUST 26-28.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

IT MEANS THAT HISTORICAL FRONTAL PASSAGES CLUSTER AROUND THESE
DATES...SHOWING A TENDENCY FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LATE SUMMER
FRONT TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE 2014 MAY FOLLOW SUIT. THE
GFS PROJECTS A FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEK ON AUGUST 28.

DOES THIS MEAN FALL HAS ARRIVED?

NOT QUITE YET...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 90S EVEN
IF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. NORMAL (AND AVERAGE) HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL IN THE 90S IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OCCURS AROUND THE
AUTUMNAL EQUINOX...WHICH IS ONLY A MONTH AWAY. (THE BELOW ARE BASED
ON DFW DATA 1981-2010.)

                  AVERAGE       NORMAL
                HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

SEPTEMBER 20    88.1 / 65.8     87 / 66
SEPTEMBER 24    83.1 / 62.6     85 / 64

PERHAPS THERE IS SOMETHING TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  78  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         98  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  76  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 211745
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1245 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
THE LAST BATCH OF STRAOCU WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ABOVE 4000 FT AS
IT MOVES NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. WE EXPECT FEW TO
SCATTERED CU TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

A 25 TO 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE A
BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES. WE WILL STILL CARRY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT
THE METRO TERMINALS FROM 14 TO 17Z. WACO WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
AT SEEING MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 11 AND 17Z.

A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS
BETWEEN 12 AND 17 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE REGION AS
DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A PARTLY CLOUDY
AND HOT AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
REMARKABLY STOUT LLJ FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (35-40KTS) HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT THIN) STRATUS ALONG THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. A FIBROUS DECK HAS INVADED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A FEW FRAGMENTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER DAYBREAK. AS THESE STRONG WINDS MIX WITH THE
SURFACE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING...WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN.
SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES...BUT THE WIND WILL HELP TAKE AN EDGE OFF THE
HEAT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...EXPECT
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TAKING A SHARP LEFT TURN INTO THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD FARTHER WEST THE PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEATLY STACKED VERTICALLY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM 10KFT ABOVE MSL TO AROUND 35KFT...WHICH WILL
ASSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ITS
INTENSITY IS STILL RATHER ORDINARY FOR AUGUST...AND ITS PLACEMENT
EAST OF TEXAS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL HEATING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER. THIS WILL REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FROM
WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...MEANING THAT ACHIEVING TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT. A NIGHTLY LLJ WILL
MEAN REPEATED STRATUS INTRUSIONS...PRIMARILY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL DO LITTLE TO
PREVENT HOT AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 100 BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105.

A PIECE OF UPPER VORTICITY IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE
TUTT SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH IT WILL
GUIDE IT NORTHWARD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE POLAR JET WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHEAR IT...BUT THE TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THE
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND SHOULD BE UNABLE TO
DISRUPT THE DEEP SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT.

AS THE UPPER LOW ENTERS CANADA...THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF
THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL MEAN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE MORNING
STRATUS AND WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE OPPRESSIVE...
BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW AND THE GFS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS IN THAT IT KEEPS THE FLOW UNIMPEDED. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE CONSENSUS FAVORS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED NORTH WINDS AND
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE WILL NOT
APPEAR IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.

25



&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES
AND WILL RESULT IN HIGHS BETWEEN THE MID 90S AND 102 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM BECOMING
TOO STRONG. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS FOR A HIGH FIRE DANGER...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE...DECATUR...COMANCHE LINE. FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT BOTH POSSUM KINGDOM RESERVOIR AND MILLER/S CREEK RAWS
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW 10...INDICATING SOME DRYING OF
FINE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST MAY SEE OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS BUT WILL ALSO SEE RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO MID TO UPPER 90S. THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

05

&&

.CLIMATE...
LATE AUGUST FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE REMARKABLY COMMON. ALTHOUGH NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES (BASED ON DFW DATA 1981-2010) GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER AUGUST 17 AT A STEADY RATE...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TELL A
DIFFERENT STORY.

DAILY NORMALS ARE CREATED USING A HARMONIC FIT...A METHOD EMPLOYED
TO DAMPEN OUTLIERS. THE RESULT ASSURES A SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM ONE
DAY TO THE NEXT...BUT THIS SMOOTHING REMOVES INTRICACIES IN THE DATA
THAT CAN REVEAL MORE ABRUPT SEASONAL TRANSITIONS. FOR EXAMPLE...MUCH
OF THE DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING LATE AUGUST OCCURS IN A
2-DAY SPAN BETWEEN AUGUST 26 AND 28.

THE DATA BELOW ARE BASED ON THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE RECORD
1981-2010.

               AVERAGE       NORMAL
             HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

AUGUST 26    97.4 / 75.4     95 / 74
AUGUST 28    93.5 / 73.4     94 / 74

THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE (1981-2010) ACTUALLY INCREASES BETWEEN
AUGUST 17 AND 26. THE SUDDEN 3.9-DEGREE DROP IN JUST 2 DAYS (AUGUST
26-28) IS THUS VERY SIGNIFICANT.

THESE ARE NOT SIMPLY ARTIFACTS OF A 30-YEAR DATA SET. USING THE
ENTIRE CLIMATE RECORD (WHICH BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER 1898) YIELDS A
DECREASE IN THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN AUGUST 17 AND 26
(1.2 DEGREES) THAT IS STILL LESS THAN THE 2-DAY SPAN AUGUST 26-28
(1.4 DEGREES). AND YES...WHEN INCORPORATING THE ENTIRE CLIMATE
RECORD OF MORE THAN A CENTURY OF DATA...THE TIME FRAME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT DROP REMAINS AUGUST 26-28.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

IT MEANS THAT HISTORICAL FRONTAL PASSAGES CLUSTER AROUND THESE
DATES...SHOWING A TENDENCY FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LATE SUMMER
FRONT TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE 2014 MAY FOLLOW SUIT. THE
GFS PROJECTS A FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEK ON AUGUST 28.

DOES THIS MEAN FALL HAS ARRIVED?

NOT QUITE YET...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 90S EVEN
IF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. NORMAL (AND AVERAGE) HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL IN THE 90S IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OCCURS AROUND THE
AUTUMNAL EQUINOX...WHICH IS ONLY A MONTH AWAY. (THE BELOW ARE BASED
ON DFW DATA 1981-2010.)

                  AVERAGE       NORMAL
                HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

SEPTEMBER 20    88.1 / 65.8     87 / 66
SEPTEMBER 24    83.1 / 62.6     85 / 64

PERHAPS THERE IS SOMETHING TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  78  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         98  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  76  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/79





000
FXUS64 KHGX 211743
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1243 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC RIDGE OVER THE N GULF IS STARTING TO EDGE WEST TOWARDS THE
UPPER TX COAST. WINDS HAVE VEERED BACK TO S/SW. THINK WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL VARY FROM 170 THROUGH 210 FOR TERMINALS. WINDS MAY
BE A AROUND 10KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS. OTHERWISE WITH PW VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5-1.7 ACROSS THE AREA...DO NOT SEE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...ONLY ISSUES MAY BE MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING WITH
LOW STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG AT KCXO. CIGS MAY BE BETTER HANDLED
WITH TEMPO GROUP BUT WILL LEAVE PREVAILING CONDITION FOR NOW. CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

KIAH/KHOU/KSGR/KLBX/KGLS...OVERALL VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE SOME VERY BRIEF INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG FOR KLBX BUT ANY CIG
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. LOOKS LIKE PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES SO THINK FORECAST WILL STAY DRY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  77  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
LA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 211743
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1243 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC RIDGE OVER THE N GULF IS STARTING TO EDGE WEST TOWARDS THE
UPPER TX COAST. WINDS HAVE VEERED BACK TO S/SW. THINK WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL VARY FROM 170 THROUGH 210 FOR TERMINALS. WINDS MAY
BE A AROUND 10KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS. OTHERWISE WITH PW VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5-1.7 ACROSS THE AREA...DO NOT SEE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...ONLY ISSUES MAY BE MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING WITH
LOW STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG AT KCXO. CIGS MAY BE BETTER HANDLED
WITH TEMPO GROUP BUT WILL LEAVE PREVAILING CONDITION FOR NOW. CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

KIAH/KHOU/KSGR/KLBX/KGLS...OVERALL VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE SOME VERY BRIEF INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG FOR KLBX BUT ANY CIG
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. LOOKS LIKE PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES SO THINK FORECAST WILL STAY DRY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  77  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
LA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 211743
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1243 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC RIDGE OVER THE N GULF IS STARTING TO EDGE WEST TOWARDS THE
UPPER TX COAST. WINDS HAVE VEERED BACK TO S/SW. THINK WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL VARY FROM 170 THROUGH 210 FOR TERMINALS. WINDS MAY
BE A AROUND 10KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS. OTHERWISE WITH PW VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5-1.7 ACROSS THE AREA...DO NOT SEE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...ONLY ISSUES MAY BE MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING WITH
LOW STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG AT KCXO. CIGS MAY BE BETTER HANDLED
WITH TEMPO GROUP BUT WILL LEAVE PREVAILING CONDITION FOR NOW. CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

KIAH/KHOU/KSGR/KLBX/KGLS...OVERALL VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE SOME VERY BRIEF INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG FOR KLBX BUT ANY CIG
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. LOOKS LIKE PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES SO THINK FORECAST WILL STAY DRY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  77  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
LA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KHGX 211743
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1243 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC RIDGE OVER THE N GULF IS STARTING TO EDGE WEST TOWARDS THE
UPPER TX COAST. WINDS HAVE VEERED BACK TO S/SW. THINK WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL VARY FROM 170 THROUGH 210 FOR TERMINALS. WINDS MAY
BE A AROUND 10KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS. OTHERWISE WITH PW VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5-1.7 ACROSS THE AREA...DO NOT SEE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...ONLY ISSUES MAY BE MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING WITH
LOW STRATUS AND MAYBE SOME FOG AT KCXO. CIGS MAY BE BETTER HANDLED
WITH TEMPO GROUP BUT WILL LEAVE PREVAILING CONDITION FOR NOW. CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

KIAH/KHOU/KSGR/KLBX/KGLS...OVERALL VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE SOME VERY BRIEF INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP
AROUND SUNRISE. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG FOR KLBX BUT ANY CIG
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. LOOKS LIKE PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES SO THINK FORECAST WILL STAY DRY.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  77  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
LA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KAMA 211743 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1243 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA.

ISOLATED VCTS/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE KDHT/KGUY
AND KAMA TERMINALS 21Z-04Z. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VCTS AT KAMA
22Z-01Z. IF A TSRA DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL, BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

S/SSW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH 02Z, PARTICULARLY AT KAMA.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TODAY TO
THE EAST OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 25
KTS AT KAMA AND KGUY...WHILE STAYING A LITTLE LIGHTER AT KDHT CLOSER
TO THE TROUGH AXIS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE CONFINED VCTS MENTION TO KAMA FOR NOW...WHERE
CHANCES APPEAR A LITTLE BETTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  LOW THUNDERSTORM
POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OWING TO
PERSISTENCE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND DIURNAL INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AXES.  MODERATE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CAPPING ISSUES.  IN FACT...MODELS PREDICT
COOLING OF SAME IN LATER PERIODS.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE SPREAD POPS EASTWARD...DUE TO EXPECTED
SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVERSING MOISTURE PLUME.  FRIDAY EVENING POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS AS ANOTHER EXPECTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES.

ON SATURDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST THREE-FOURTHS OF FORECAST AREA...AS MODELS AGREE THAT MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA SHOULD PASS OVER INSTABILITY AXIS.   FOR THE
EVENING...LOW POPS HAVE BEEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AS DYNAMICS
PASS.

FOR SUNDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS.
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS HAVE BEEN REALIGNED...WITH HIGHER POPS NOW IN
NORTHEAST SECTIONS...WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED AS 500 MB COLD POOL ARRIVES.

NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.  00Z GFS BRINGS COLD FRONT INTO
PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO EARLIER ECMWF RUN.  HAVE
ACCEPTED THIS SCENARIO...WITH WIND SHIFT AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

CLK/JJ




000
FXUS64 KAMA 211743 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1243 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA.

ISOLATED VCTS/TSRA WILL OCCUR IN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE KDHT/KGUY
AND KAMA TERMINALS 21Z-04Z. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VCTS AT KAMA
22Z-01Z. IF A TSRA DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL, BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

S/SSW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH 02Z, PARTICULARLY AT KAMA.

JACKSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TODAY TO
THE EAST OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 25
KTS AT KAMA AND KGUY...WHILE STAYING A LITTLE LIGHTER AT KDHT CLOSER
TO THE TROUGH AXIS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE CONFINED VCTS MENTION TO KAMA FOR NOW...WHERE
CHANCES APPEAR A LITTLE BETTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  LOW THUNDERSTORM
POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OWING TO
PERSISTENCE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND DIURNAL INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AXES.  MODERATE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CAPPING ISSUES.  IN FACT...MODELS PREDICT
COOLING OF SAME IN LATER PERIODS.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE SPREAD POPS EASTWARD...DUE TO EXPECTED
SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVERSING MOISTURE PLUME.  FRIDAY EVENING POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS AS ANOTHER EXPECTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES.

ON SATURDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST THREE-FOURTHS OF FORECAST AREA...AS MODELS AGREE THAT MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA SHOULD PASS OVER INSTABILITY AXIS.   FOR THE
EVENING...LOW POPS HAVE BEEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AS DYNAMICS
PASS.

FOR SUNDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS.
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS HAVE BEEN REALIGNED...WITH HIGHER POPS NOW IN
NORTHEAST SECTIONS...WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED AS 500 MB COLD POOL ARRIVES.

NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.  00Z GFS BRINGS COLD FRONT INTO
PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO EARLIER ECMWF RUN.  HAVE
ACCEPTED THIS SCENARIO...WITH WIND SHIFT AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

CLK/JJ





000
FXUS64 KCRP 211738 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1238 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME. FEWER CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE NEAR CRP...AROUND 30 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT MAYBE
NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT...AROUND 30 KNOTS. SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER BENEATH INVERSION COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM
08Z TO 14Z FRIDAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
NEAR VCT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK PROVIDING
MVFR VSBYS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...12Z CRP/BRO SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR BETWEEN
3-10 KFT. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG INTRUSION OF DRIER
AIR OVER ALL OF THE REGION...PWAT VALUES FROM 1.25 TO 1.6 INCHES.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN 35-40 KNOTS OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND WINDS ALREADY HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE IS SLIGHTLY WARMER
THIS MORNING...SO CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. STILL EXPECT HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR 110 OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA AREA.
NO CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY.

MARINE...SPORT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE COMPOSITE INDICATED AN
AREA OF UPWELLING/LOWER TEMPS OFF THE COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT ARANSAS WITH WATER TEMPS 80-81 DEGREES. THE COOLER TEMPS
WILL INHIBIT MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS.
SO CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF SCA FOR ONLY SOUTHERN BAYS LOOKS GOOD.
WILL UPDATE TO MOVE FORWARD THE START TIME FOR SCA TO NOON.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
NO CHANGE TO RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  80  97  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  81 105  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  78 102  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  83  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  78 103  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  82  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 211738 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1238 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME. FEWER CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE NEAR CRP...AROUND 30 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT MAYBE
NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT...AROUND 30 KNOTS. SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER BENEATH INVERSION COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM
08Z TO 14Z FRIDAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
NEAR VCT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK PROVIDING
MVFR VSBYS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...12Z CRP/BRO SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR BETWEEN
3-10 KFT. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG INTRUSION OF DRIER
AIR OVER ALL OF THE REGION...PWAT VALUES FROM 1.25 TO 1.6 INCHES.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN 35-40 KNOTS OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND WINDS ALREADY HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE IS SLIGHTLY WARMER
THIS MORNING...SO CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. STILL EXPECT HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR 110 OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA AREA.
NO CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY.

MARINE...SPORT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE COMPOSITE INDICATED AN
AREA OF UPWELLING/LOWER TEMPS OFF THE COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT ARANSAS WITH WATER TEMPS 80-81 DEGREES. THE COOLER TEMPS
WILL INHIBIT MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS.
SO CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF SCA FOR ONLY SOUTHERN BAYS LOOKS GOOD.
WILL UPDATE TO MOVE FORWARD THE START TIME FOR SCA TO NOON.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
NO CHANGE TO RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  80  97  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  81 105  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  78 102  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  83  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  78 103  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  82  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 211738 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1238 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME. FEWER CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE NEAR CRP...AROUND 30 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT MAYBE
NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT...AROUND 30 KNOTS. SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER BENEATH INVERSION COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM
08Z TO 14Z FRIDAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
NEAR VCT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK PROVIDING
MVFR VSBYS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...12Z CRP/BRO SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR BETWEEN
3-10 KFT. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG INTRUSION OF DRIER
AIR OVER ALL OF THE REGION...PWAT VALUES FROM 1.25 TO 1.6 INCHES.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN 35-40 KNOTS OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND WINDS ALREADY HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE IS SLIGHTLY WARMER
THIS MORNING...SO CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. STILL EXPECT HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR 110 OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA AREA.
NO CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY.

MARINE...SPORT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE COMPOSITE INDICATED AN
AREA OF UPWELLING/LOWER TEMPS OFF THE COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT ARANSAS WITH WATER TEMPS 80-81 DEGREES. THE COOLER TEMPS
WILL INHIBIT MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS.
SO CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF SCA FOR ONLY SOUTHERN BAYS LOOKS GOOD.
WILL UPDATE TO MOVE FORWARD THE START TIME FOR SCA TO NOON.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
NO CHANGE TO RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  80  97  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  81 105  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  78 102  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  83  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  78 103  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  82  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 211738 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1238 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME. FEWER CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE NEAR CRP...AROUND 30 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT MAYBE
NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT...AROUND 30 KNOTS. SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER BENEATH INVERSION COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM
08Z TO 14Z FRIDAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
NEAR VCT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK PROVIDING
MVFR VSBYS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 15Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...12Z CRP/BRO SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR BETWEEN
3-10 KFT. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG INTRUSION OF DRIER
AIR OVER ALL OF THE REGION...PWAT VALUES FROM 1.25 TO 1.6 INCHES.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN 35-40 KNOTS OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND WINDS ALREADY HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE IS SLIGHTLY WARMER
THIS MORNING...SO CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. STILL EXPECT HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR 110 OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA AREA.
NO CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY.

MARINE...SPORT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE COMPOSITE INDICATED AN
AREA OF UPWELLING/LOWER TEMPS OFF THE COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT ARANSAS WITH WATER TEMPS 80-81 DEGREES. THE COOLER TEMPS
WILL INHIBIT MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS.
SO CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF SCA FOR ONLY SOUTHERN BAYS LOOKS GOOD.
WILL UPDATE TO MOVE FORWARD THE START TIME FOR SCA TO NOON.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
NO CHANGE TO RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  80  97  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  81 105  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  78 102  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  83  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  78 103  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  82  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KEWX 211729
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED NEXT 24-30 HRS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING EXPECT FOR MVFR CIGS WITH BROKEN STRATUS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
09Z TO 15Z AT I-35 TAFS AND 11Z TO 15Z AT KDRT. LLJ MIXING TO
SURFACE DURING THE DAY AND DECOUPLING AT NIGHT WILL CREATE GUSTY
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 12-15 KTS GUSTING TO 25 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AND 10 TO 15 KTS AT NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

UPDATE...HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE
105-110 DEG HEAT INDEX IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO
GONZALES TO FLORESVILLE LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR 103-105 DEG HEAT INDEX EXPECTED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HILL COUNTRY...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
REMAINED NEAR OR ABOVE 80 DEGS FOR LOWS THIS MORNING...COMPOUNDING
HEAT EXHAUSTION POTENTIAL. MINOR TWEAKS UP IN ACTUAL TEMP FORECAST
ALSO MADE BASED ON HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY...STARTING TEMPS FOR
TODAY...AND RIDGE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA.

ALSO...AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WHERE MIN RH VALUES DIP TO AROUND
25 PERCENT AND GUSTY WINDS OCCUR.

JR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
THE I-35 TAF SITES HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING DUE TO PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
THE STATUS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH 15Z CAUSING PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS. DEL RIO COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS...SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 13 TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRATUS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUILDING OVER THE I-35 TERMINALS
BETWEEN 07Z/08Z AND AT DRT AROUND 11Z FRIDAY MORNING THEN BURNING
OFF BY 16Z.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH
(AUS/SAT/SSF) AND SOUTHEAST (DRT). THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WE COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. WINDS WEAKEN TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM STORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY PROGRESS NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE HOT AND DRY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF ACTIVITY IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING HIGH MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IS THEREFORE DRYING
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PERSISTENT...AROUND THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF PRECIP COULD
BE A BIT SOONER THAN THAT DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR
NOW. JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT PACKAGE...THE GFS IS FORECASTING A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS THURSDAY/FRIDAY BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OF THE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN SO IT DOES BEAR
WATCHING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             101  78  99  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101  76  99  73  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    102  75 100  72  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  75  96  73  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  78  98  75  97 /  10   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  79  97  74  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  75  98  72  97 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  77  99  73  97 /  -   -    0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  102  79  99  76  99 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      100  80  99  76  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          102  78 100  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33





000
FXUS64 KLUB 211717 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CWA REMAINS SITUATED UNDERNEATH
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A GRADUALLY THINNING SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME. MID-LVL HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...SO WE EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ROBUST THAN
YESTERDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE WRN
SPLNS WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK...BUT WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE...BUT THERE IS A
SLIM CHANCE OF -TSRA AT EITHER TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BETTER ODDS AT KLBB. AMENDMENTS FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...A T-STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY
INTERFERE WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS FOR A
PERIOD. AFTER THE STANDARD PRE-DAWN LULL...BREEZY WINDS WILL
RETURN FRI MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
DEEP MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES JUST WEST OF KLBB TODAY...WHILE KCDS
WILL BE ENOUGH EAST TO REMAIN DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. BULK OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB BUT DISAGREE ON MOVEMENT INTO THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT
OF KLBB FOR NOW. HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN BLOCKING LOWER LEVEL
SATELLITE VIEWS ARE NOW THINNING ENOUGH TO GIVE AT LEAST PARTIAL
VIEW NEAR THE GROUND...NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF KCDS OR
SOUTHEAST OF KLBB THIS MORNING THOUGH STILL WATCHING. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS ALSO IS WITHIN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE
AS WELL AS A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH. DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
THIS MORNING. A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS POTENTIALLY COULD FACTOR IN LATER
TODAY. BUT IF ANYTHING...FLOW SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY FAVORING LESS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN ZONES. SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
GENERATING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
ZONES VERY SIMILAR TO OUR GOING FORECAST. WITHOUT CONVINCING
ARGUMENT TO FAVOR EITHER A DRY OR WET FORECAST TODAY...WE WILL
RETAIN THE GIST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TILTING BEST CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE MODEL FAVORED AREAS. EDGED TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS UP
A HALF-NOTCH IN LINE WITH TRENDS AND CLOSER TO YESTERDAYS MAXIMUMS.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN MODERATELY BREEZY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PEAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING TREND BY LATE EVENING...
ALSO FAVORING CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A FEW STORMS MAY
EXTEND JUST PAST MIDNIGHT SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD NEAR THE STATE LINE AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
PRECIP PUSH. THE GFS/NAM KEEP A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROF ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE CO-LOCATED WITH
FORCING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY PRETTY CONFINED TO THIS AREA AS STEERING
FLOW IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND IS FAIRLY WEAK. SOME STORMS MAY
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THAT SCENARIO IS
UNKNOWN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FROM THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
WESTWARD WHILE CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
HAVE LOST SOME OF ITS ENERGY AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. WHILE WEAKER...THE
SHORTWAVE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONVECT ALONG A SURFACE TROF
REMAINING FROM FRIDAY. WITH THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO COVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY BUT WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE RELAXED AS WE ARE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHILE CONTINUING TO
TAP MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS FUZZY BUT SOMEWHAT
DISCERNIBLE. THE GFS BRINGS A DEEPER TROF EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
PLAINS KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE TROF IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY AS RIDGING SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF GOES BY THE
PHILOSOPHY THAT SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE AND PROLONGS THE FROPA
TILL NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT TIME IT KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NV.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN BE MADE ON FROPA TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  90  61  86  61 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         67  92  64  89  63 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  91  64  89  63 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     66  90  63  87  63 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  67  92  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  91  64  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  92  65  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     74  98  70  97  71 /  10  10  10  20  20
SPUR          68  95  66  94  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  98  69  97  70 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 211717 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CWA REMAINS SITUATED UNDERNEATH
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A GRADUALLY THINNING SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME. MID-LVL HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...SO WE EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ROBUST THAN
YESTERDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE WRN
SPLNS WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK...BUT WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE...BUT THERE IS A
SLIM CHANCE OF -TSRA AT EITHER TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BETTER ODDS AT KLBB. AMENDMENTS FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...A T-STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY
INTERFERE WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS FOR A
PERIOD. AFTER THE STANDARD PRE-DAWN LULL...BREEZY WINDS WILL
RETURN FRI MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
DEEP MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES JUST WEST OF KLBB TODAY...WHILE KCDS
WILL BE ENOUGH EAST TO REMAIN DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. BULK OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB BUT DISAGREE ON MOVEMENT INTO THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT
OF KLBB FOR NOW. HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN BLOCKING LOWER LEVEL
SATELLITE VIEWS ARE NOW THINNING ENOUGH TO GIVE AT LEAST PARTIAL
VIEW NEAR THE GROUND...NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF KCDS OR
SOUTHEAST OF KLBB THIS MORNING THOUGH STILL WATCHING. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS ALSO IS WITHIN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE
AS WELL AS A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH. DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
THIS MORNING. A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS POTENTIALLY COULD FACTOR IN LATER
TODAY. BUT IF ANYTHING...FLOW SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY FAVORING LESS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN ZONES. SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
GENERATING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
ZONES VERY SIMILAR TO OUR GOING FORECAST. WITHOUT CONVINCING
ARGUMENT TO FAVOR EITHER A DRY OR WET FORECAST TODAY...WE WILL
RETAIN THE GIST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TILTING BEST CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE MODEL FAVORED AREAS. EDGED TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS UP
A HALF-NOTCH IN LINE WITH TRENDS AND CLOSER TO YESTERDAYS MAXIMUMS.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN MODERATELY BREEZY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PEAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING TREND BY LATE EVENING...
ALSO FAVORING CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A FEW STORMS MAY
EXTEND JUST PAST MIDNIGHT SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD NEAR THE STATE LINE AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
PRECIP PUSH. THE GFS/NAM KEEP A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROF ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE CO-LOCATED WITH
FORCING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY PRETTY CONFINED TO THIS AREA AS STEERING
FLOW IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND IS FAIRLY WEAK. SOME STORMS MAY
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THAT SCENARIO IS
UNKNOWN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FROM THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
WESTWARD WHILE CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
HAVE LOST SOME OF ITS ENERGY AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. WHILE WEAKER...THE
SHORTWAVE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONVECT ALONG A SURFACE TROF
REMAINING FROM FRIDAY. WITH THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO COVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY BUT WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE RELAXED AS WE ARE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHILE CONTINUING TO
TAP MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS FUZZY BUT SOMEWHAT
DISCERNIBLE. THE GFS BRINGS A DEEPER TROF EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
PLAINS KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE TROF IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY AS RIDGING SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF GOES BY THE
PHILOSOPHY THAT SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE AND PROLONGS THE FROPA
TILL NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT TIME IT KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NV.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN BE MADE ON FROPA TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  90  61  86  61 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         67  92  64  89  63 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  91  64  89  63 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     66  90  63  87  63 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  67  92  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  91  64  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  92  65  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     74  98  70  97  71 /  10  10  10  20  20
SPUR          68  95  66  94  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  98  69  97  70 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33





000
FXUS64 KMAF 211713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and south winds to continue this TAF period. There
will be some isolated TS developing this afternoon/evening from
20Z-02Z but coverage will not be enough to include in TAFs. Any
storms affecting the terminals will be handled with amendments.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The overall pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours. The
upper low has become stationary along the CA coastline as the upper
ridge maintains its position along the Gulf Coast. These systems
will play a great deal into our weather over the next couple of
days. The GFS and NAM have struggled with the strength of the upper
high as well as the location of a sfc trough over the area. This
caused them to generate precip too far west and underestimate the
overall coverage yesterday. The ECMWF has performed the best along
with some of the short term high-res models. Model QPF seems to
align with an upper level shear axis across the area which will
likely help with convection today and Friday. Subtle disturbances
in the weak flow aloft may also enhance convection, but these are
hard to detect until cu begins to develop during the afternoon.
With the above said, higher PoPs are warranted for western
portions of the PB and SE NM for today and Friday. We may again
see some heavy rain as Gulf moisture continues to stream in with
PWATS near 1.5".

Convection should be confined mostly to the higher terrain and SE NM
by the weekend as the upper ridge builds west. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal across most of the area with near
normal values across the west where the better chance for rain lies.

Models begin to diverge next week with the GFS digging a trough
across the Rockies and weakening the ridge. The ECMWF keeps a strong
ridge in place before weakening it late in the week. Will stay with
persistence here and keep it warm and mostly dry until model
solutions converge better.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 211713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and south winds to continue this TAF period. There
will be some isolated TS developing this afternoon/evening from
20Z-02Z but coverage will not be enough to include in TAFs. Any
storms affecting the terminals will be handled with amendments.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The overall pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours. The
upper low has become stationary along the CA coastline as the upper
ridge maintains its position along the Gulf Coast. These systems
will play a great deal into our weather over the next couple of
days. The GFS and NAM have struggled with the strength of the upper
high as well as the location of a sfc trough over the area. This
caused them to generate precip too far west and underestimate the
overall coverage yesterday. The ECMWF has performed the best along
with some of the short term high-res models. Model QPF seems to
align with an upper level shear axis across the area which will
likely help with convection today and Friday. Subtle disturbances
in the weak flow aloft may also enhance convection, but these are
hard to detect until cu begins to develop during the afternoon.
With the above said, higher PoPs are warranted for western
portions of the PB and SE NM for today and Friday. We may again
see some heavy rain as Gulf moisture continues to stream in with
PWATS near 1.5".

Convection should be confined mostly to the higher terrain and SE NM
by the weekend as the upper ridge builds west. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal across most of the area with near
normal values across the west where the better chance for rain lies.

Models begin to diverge next week with the GFS digging a trough
across the Rockies and weakening the ridge. The ECMWF keeps a strong
ridge in place before weakening it late in the week. Will stay with
persistence here and keep it warm and mostly dry until model
solutions converge better.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 211711
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

South winds of 12 to 18 knots, with higher gusts, will decrease to 6
to 12 knots, after 00z. Stratus development is forecast at KBBD,
KSOA and KJCT between 09z and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. More
uncertainty remains at KSJT, so for now, VFR conditions were
continued. South winds will once again increase to 12 to 18 knots by
mid to late morning Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings across much of West Central Texas this
morning, before clearing mid to late morning. Satellite and METAR
data indicate stratus is returning to West Central Texas. Expect
VFR conditions to return to all of West Central Texas by 18Z, as
drier air aloft mixes downward to dissipate the stratus.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Expect dry conditions for the next 24 hours, with afternoon highs
today above seasonal normals. As an upper ridge continues to
dominate the region, a thermal ridge at 850mb will expand into West
Central Texas this afternoon. This will help push afternoon highs
into mainly the upper 90s to around 100 range for most of West
Central Texas. Morning low clouds will help limit afternoon highs
across our southern counties to mainly around 95.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper level high over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday
will slowly move north during the weekend, and is progged to be
centered over southeastern Missouri and extreme southern Illinois
on Monday. This will be our dominant weather influence with clear
to partly cloudy skies through the early part of next week. Little
day-to-day change is expected with our temperatures. Highs will be
a few degrees above normal and mostly in the mid to upper 90s, with
overnight lows mostly in the lower 70s. Models continue to indicate
a few weak disturbances aloft lifting from New Mexico northeast
across the Texas Panhandle and into Kansas during the weekend. Any
associated convection is expected to stay to our west and
northwest.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF diverge in solutions Tuesday-Thursday of
next week, and this has implication on whether a weak cold front
may enter our area from the north. The GFS is more progressive
with the upper pattern and has a stronger upper trough moving east
across the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday, and across the
northern and central Plains Wednesday. The GFS has an upper ridge
building into the western part of the country behind the trough,
with weak northwest flow aloft developing over our area by the end
of the period. This setup would favor a weak cold front moving
south into our counties late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
some possibility of shower/thunderstorm development. The ECMWF
closes off an upper low over northern California Monday night,
then takes it slowly east to near the Idaho/Utah/Wyoming border by
Wednesday night. The ECMWF also has the upper high drifting back
to the southwest, to along the Oklahoma/Arkansas border Tuesday
night.

Given the considerable model differences and uncertainty at this
time, leaning toward persistence with the forecast on Day 7 (next
Wednesday).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  72  97  72 /   5   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  75  97  71  97  72 /   5   0   0   5   5
Junction  75  95  70  95  71 /   0   5   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 211711
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

South winds of 12 to 18 knots, with higher gusts, will decrease to 6
to 12 knots, after 00z. Stratus development is forecast at KBBD,
KSOA and KJCT between 09z and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. More
uncertainty remains at KSJT, so for now, VFR conditions were
continued. South winds will once again increase to 12 to 18 knots by
mid to late morning Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings across much of West Central Texas this
morning, before clearing mid to late morning. Satellite and METAR
data indicate stratus is returning to West Central Texas. Expect
VFR conditions to return to all of West Central Texas by 18Z, as
drier air aloft mixes downward to dissipate the stratus.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Expect dry conditions for the next 24 hours, with afternoon highs
today above seasonal normals. As an upper ridge continues to
dominate the region, a thermal ridge at 850mb will expand into West
Central Texas this afternoon. This will help push afternoon highs
into mainly the upper 90s to around 100 range for most of West
Central Texas. Morning low clouds will help limit afternoon highs
across our southern counties to mainly around 95.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper level high over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday
will slowly move north during the weekend, and is progged to be
centered over southeastern Missouri and extreme southern Illinois
on Monday. This will be our dominant weather influence with clear
to partly cloudy skies through the early part of next week. Little
day-to-day change is expected with our temperatures. Highs will be
a few degrees above normal and mostly in the mid to upper 90s, with
overnight lows mostly in the lower 70s. Models continue to indicate
a few weak disturbances aloft lifting from New Mexico northeast
across the Texas Panhandle and into Kansas during the weekend. Any
associated convection is expected to stay to our west and
northwest.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF diverge in solutions Tuesday-Thursday of
next week, and this has implication on whether a weak cold front
may enter our area from the north. The GFS is more progressive
with the upper pattern and has a stronger upper trough moving east
across the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday, and across the
northern and central Plains Wednesday. The GFS has an upper ridge
building into the western part of the country behind the trough,
with weak northwest flow aloft developing over our area by the end
of the period. This setup would favor a weak cold front moving
south into our counties late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
some possibility of shower/thunderstorm development. The ECMWF
closes off an upper low over northern California Monday night,
then takes it slowly east to near the Idaho/Utah/Wyoming border by
Wednesday night. The ECMWF also has the upper high drifting back
to the southwest, to along the Oklahoma/Arkansas border Tuesday
night.

Given the considerable model differences and uncertainty at this
time, leaning toward persistence with the forecast on Day 7 (next
Wednesday).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  72  97  72 /   5   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  75  97  71  97  72 /   5   0   0   5   5
Junction  75  95  70  95  71 /   0   5   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 211711
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

South winds of 12 to 18 knots, with higher gusts, will decrease to 6
to 12 knots, after 00z. Stratus development is forecast at KBBD,
KSOA and KJCT between 09z and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. More
uncertainty remains at KSJT, so for now, VFR conditions were
continued. South winds will once again increase to 12 to 18 knots by
mid to late morning Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings across much of West Central Texas this
morning, before clearing mid to late morning. Satellite and METAR
data indicate stratus is returning to West Central Texas. Expect
VFR conditions to return to all of West Central Texas by 18Z, as
drier air aloft mixes downward to dissipate the stratus.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Expect dry conditions for the next 24 hours, with afternoon highs
today above seasonal normals. As an upper ridge continues to
dominate the region, a thermal ridge at 850mb will expand into West
Central Texas this afternoon. This will help push afternoon highs
into mainly the upper 90s to around 100 range for most of West
Central Texas. Morning low clouds will help limit afternoon highs
across our southern counties to mainly around 95.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper level high over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday
will slowly move north during the weekend, and is progged to be
centered over southeastern Missouri and extreme southern Illinois
on Monday. This will be our dominant weather influence with clear
to partly cloudy skies through the early part of next week. Little
day-to-day change is expected with our temperatures. Highs will be
a few degrees above normal and mostly in the mid to upper 90s, with
overnight lows mostly in the lower 70s. Models continue to indicate
a few weak disturbances aloft lifting from New Mexico northeast
across the Texas Panhandle and into Kansas during the weekend. Any
associated convection is expected to stay to our west and
northwest.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF diverge in solutions Tuesday-Thursday of
next week, and this has implication on whether a weak cold front
may enter our area from the north. The GFS is more progressive
with the upper pattern and has a stronger upper trough moving east
across the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday, and across the
northern and central Plains Wednesday. The GFS has an upper ridge
building into the western part of the country behind the trough,
with weak northwest flow aloft developing over our area by the end
of the period. This setup would favor a weak cold front moving
south into our counties late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
some possibility of shower/thunderstorm development. The ECMWF
closes off an upper low over northern California Monday night,
then takes it slowly east to near the Idaho/Utah/Wyoming border by
Wednesday night. The ECMWF also has the upper high drifting back
to the southwest, to along the Oklahoma/Arkansas border Tuesday
night.

Given the considerable model differences and uncertainty at this
time, leaning toward persistence with the forecast on Day 7 (next
Wednesday).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  72  97  72 /   5   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  75  97  71  97  72 /   5   0   0   5   5
Junction  75  95  70  95  71 /   0   5   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KSJT 211711
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

South winds of 12 to 18 knots, with higher gusts, will decrease to 6
to 12 knots, after 00z. Stratus development is forecast at KBBD,
KSOA and KJCT between 09z and 11z, resulting in MVFR ceilings. More
uncertainty remains at KSJT, so for now, VFR conditions were
continued. South winds will once again increase to 12 to 18 knots by
mid to late morning Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings across much of West Central Texas this
morning, before clearing mid to late morning. Satellite and METAR
data indicate stratus is returning to West Central Texas. Expect
VFR conditions to return to all of West Central Texas by 18Z, as
drier air aloft mixes downward to dissipate the stratus.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Expect dry conditions for the next 24 hours, with afternoon highs
today above seasonal normals. As an upper ridge continues to
dominate the region, a thermal ridge at 850mb will expand into West
Central Texas this afternoon. This will help push afternoon highs
into mainly the upper 90s to around 100 range for most of West
Central Texas. Morning low clouds will help limit afternoon highs
across our southern counties to mainly around 95.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper level high over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday
will slowly move north during the weekend, and is progged to be
centered over southeastern Missouri and extreme southern Illinois
on Monday. This will be our dominant weather influence with clear
to partly cloudy skies through the early part of next week. Little
day-to-day change is expected with our temperatures. Highs will be
a few degrees above normal and mostly in the mid to upper 90s, with
overnight lows mostly in the lower 70s. Models continue to indicate
a few weak disturbances aloft lifting from New Mexico northeast
across the Texas Panhandle and into Kansas during the weekend. Any
associated convection is expected to stay to our west and
northwest.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF diverge in solutions Tuesday-Thursday of
next week, and this has implication on whether a weak cold front
may enter our area from the north. The GFS is more progressive
with the upper pattern and has a stronger upper trough moving east
across the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday, and across the
northern and central Plains Wednesday. The GFS has an upper ridge
building into the western part of the country behind the trough,
with weak northwest flow aloft developing over our area by the end
of the period. This setup would favor a weak cold front moving
south into our counties late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
some possibility of shower/thunderstorm development. The ECMWF
closes off an upper low over northern California Monday night,
then takes it slowly east to near the Idaho/Utah/Wyoming border by
Wednesday night. The ECMWF also has the upper high drifting back
to the southwest, to along the Oklahoma/Arkansas border Tuesday
night.

Given the considerable model differences and uncertainty at this
time, leaning toward persistence with the forecast on Day 7 (next
Wednesday).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  76  97  72  97  72 /   5   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  75  97  71  97  72 /   5   0   0   5   5
Junction  75  95  70  95  71 /   0   5   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KFWD 211614
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1114 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE REGION AS
DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A PARTLY CLOUDY
AND HOT AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.


79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

MAINLY VFR WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BRIEF
ROUNDS OF MVFR CIGS WILL POSE CHALLENGES EACH MORNING BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND MID MORNING...MAINLY AT WACO. STRONG 30-35 KT LLJ FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE FRIDAY MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH HAVING MOVED FURTHER
EAST. FOR THIS MORNING ONLY...MVFR CIGS 2.5 KFT WILL BE PATCHY
ENOUGH THAT A TEMPO GROUP AT EASTERN DFW AIRPORTS WILL LIKELY
SUFFICE. MIXING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY EACH DAY AND DO NOT EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO LAST MORE THAN 2-3 HRS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ SHOULD MIX EASILY DOWN BY LATE MORNING WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25 KTS. PRESSURE
FALLS TO THE WEST WILL ALSO KEEP WINDS UP...EVEN INTO TONIGHT WITH
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
REMARKABLY STOUT LLJ FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (35-40KTS) HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT THIN) STRATUS ALONG THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. A FIBROUS DECK HAS INVADED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A FEW FRAGMENTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER DAYBREAK. AS THESE STRONG WINDS MIX WITH THE
SURFACE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING...WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN.
SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES...BUT THE WIND WILL HELP TAKE AN EDGE OFF THE
HEAT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...EXPECT
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TAKING A SHARP LEFT TURN INTO THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD FARTHER WEST THE PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEATLY STACKED VERTICALLY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM 10KFT ABOVE MSL TO AROUND 35KFT...WHICH WILL
ASSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ITS
INTENSITY IS STILL RATHER ORDINARY FOR AUGUST...AND ITS PLACEMENT
EAST OF TEXAS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL HEATING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER. THIS WILL REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FROM
WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...MEANING THAT ACHIEVING TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT. A NIGHTLY LLJ WILL
MEAN REPEATED STRATUS INTRUSIONS...PRIMARILY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL DO LITTLE TO
PREVENT HOT AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 100 BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105.

A PIECE OF UPPER VORTICITY IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE
TUTT SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH IT WILL
GUIDE IT NORTHWARD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE POLAR JET WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHEAR IT...BUT THE TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THE
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND SHOULD BE UNABLE TO
DISRUPT THE DEEP SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT.

AS THE UPPER LOW ENTERS CANADA...THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF
THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL MEAN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE MORNING
STRATUS AND WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE OPPRESSIVE...
BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW AND THE GFS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS IN THAT IT KEEPS THE FLOW UNIMPEDED. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE CONSENSUS FAVORS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED NORTH WINDS AND
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE WILL NOT
APPEAR IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.

25



&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES
AND WILL RESULT IN HIGHS BETWEEN THE MID 90S AND 102 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM BECOMING
TOO STRONG. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS FOR A HIGH FIRE DANGER...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE...DECATUR...COMANCHE LINE. FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT BOTH POSSUM KINGDOM RESERVOIR AND MILLER/S CREEK RAWS
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW 10...INDICATING SOME DRYING OF
FINE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST MAY SEE OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS BUT WILL ALSO SEE RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO MID TO UPPER 90S. THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

05

&&

.CLIMATE...
LATE AUGUST FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE REMARKABLY COMMON. ALTHOUGH NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES (BASED ON DFW DATA 1981-2010) GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER AUGUST 17 AT A STEADY RATE...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TELL A
DIFFERENT STORY.

DAILY NORMALS ARE CREATED USING A HARMONIC FIT...A METHOD EMPLOYED
TO DAMPEN OUTLIERS. THE RESULT ASSURES A SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM ONE
DAY TO THE NEXT...BUT THIS SMOOTHING REMOVES INTRICACIES IN THE DATA
THAT CAN REVEAL MORE ABRUPT SEASONAL TRANSITIONS. FOR EXAMPLE...MUCH
OF THE DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING LATE AUGUST OCCURS IN A
2-DAY SPAN BETWEEN AUGUST 26 AND 28.

THE DATA BELOW ARE BASED ON THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE RECORD
1981-2010.

               AVERAGE       NORMAL
             HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

AUGUST 26    97.4 / 75.4     95 / 74
AUGUST 28    93.5 / 73.4     94 / 74

THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE (1981-2010) ACTUALLY INCREASES BETWEEN
AUGUST 17 AND 26. THE SUDDEN 3.9-DEGREE DROP IN JUST 2 DAYS (AUGUST
26-28) IS THUS VERY SIGNIFICANT.

THESE ARE NOT SIMPLY ARTIFACTS OF A 30-YEAR DATA SET. USING THE
ENTIRE CLIMATE RECORD (WHICH BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER 1898) YIELDS A
DECREASE IN THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN AUGUST 17 AND 26
(1.2 DEGREES) THAT IS STILL LESS THAN THE 2-DAY SPAN AUGUST 26-28
(1.4 DEGREES). AND YES...WHEN INCORPORATING THE ENTIRE CLIMATE
RECORD OF MORE THAN A CENTURY OF DATA...THE TIME FRAME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT DROP REMAINS AUGUST 26-28.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

IT MEANS THAT HISTORICAL FRONTAL PASSAGES CLUSTER AROUND THESE
DATES...SHOWING A TENDENCY FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LATE SUMMER
FRONT TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE 2014 MAY FOLLOW SUIT. THE
GFS PROJECTS A FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEK ON AUGUST 28.

DOES THIS MEAN FALL HAS ARRIVED?

NOT QUITE YET...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 90S EVEN
IF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. NORMAL (AND AVERAGE) HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL IN THE 90S IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OCCURS AROUND THE
AUTUMNAL EQUINOX...WHICH IS ONLY A MONTH AWAY. (THE BELOW ARE BASED
ON DFW DATA 1981-2010.)

                  AVERAGE       NORMAL
                HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

SEPTEMBER 20    88.1 / 65.8     87 / 66
SEPTEMBER 24    83.1 / 62.6     85 / 64

PERHAPS THERE IS SOMETHING TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  78  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         98  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  76  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 211614
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1114 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE REGION AS
DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A PARTLY CLOUDY
AND HOT AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.


79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

MAINLY VFR WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BRIEF
ROUNDS OF MVFR CIGS WILL POSE CHALLENGES EACH MORNING BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND MID MORNING...MAINLY AT WACO. STRONG 30-35 KT LLJ FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE FRIDAY MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH HAVING MOVED FURTHER
EAST. FOR THIS MORNING ONLY...MVFR CIGS 2.5 KFT WILL BE PATCHY
ENOUGH THAT A TEMPO GROUP AT EASTERN DFW AIRPORTS WILL LIKELY
SUFFICE. MIXING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY EACH DAY AND DO NOT EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO LAST MORE THAN 2-3 HRS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ SHOULD MIX EASILY DOWN BY LATE MORNING WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25 KTS. PRESSURE
FALLS TO THE WEST WILL ALSO KEEP WINDS UP...EVEN INTO TONIGHT WITH
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
REMARKABLY STOUT LLJ FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (35-40KTS) HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT THIN) STRATUS ALONG THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. A FIBROUS DECK HAS INVADED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A FEW FRAGMENTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER DAYBREAK. AS THESE STRONG WINDS MIX WITH THE
SURFACE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING...WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN.
SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES...BUT THE WIND WILL HELP TAKE AN EDGE OFF THE
HEAT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...EXPECT
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TAKING A SHARP LEFT TURN INTO THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD FARTHER WEST THE PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEATLY STACKED VERTICALLY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM 10KFT ABOVE MSL TO AROUND 35KFT...WHICH WILL
ASSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ITS
INTENSITY IS STILL RATHER ORDINARY FOR AUGUST...AND ITS PLACEMENT
EAST OF TEXAS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL HEATING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER. THIS WILL REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FROM
WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...MEANING THAT ACHIEVING TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT. A NIGHTLY LLJ WILL
MEAN REPEATED STRATUS INTRUSIONS...PRIMARILY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL DO LITTLE TO
PREVENT HOT AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 100 BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105.

A PIECE OF UPPER VORTICITY IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE
TUTT SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH IT WILL
GUIDE IT NORTHWARD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE POLAR JET WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHEAR IT...BUT THE TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THE
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND SHOULD BE UNABLE TO
DISRUPT THE DEEP SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT.

AS THE UPPER LOW ENTERS CANADA...THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF
THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL MEAN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE MORNING
STRATUS AND WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE OPPRESSIVE...
BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW AND THE GFS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS IN THAT IT KEEPS THE FLOW UNIMPEDED. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE CONSENSUS FAVORS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED NORTH WINDS AND
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE WILL NOT
APPEAR IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.

25



&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES
AND WILL RESULT IN HIGHS BETWEEN THE MID 90S AND 102 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM BECOMING
TOO STRONG. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS FOR A HIGH FIRE DANGER...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE...DECATUR...COMANCHE LINE. FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT BOTH POSSUM KINGDOM RESERVOIR AND MILLER/S CREEK RAWS
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW 10...INDICATING SOME DRYING OF
FINE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST MAY SEE OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS BUT WILL ALSO SEE RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO MID TO UPPER 90S. THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

05

&&

.CLIMATE...
LATE AUGUST FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE REMARKABLY COMMON. ALTHOUGH NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES (BASED ON DFW DATA 1981-2010) GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER AUGUST 17 AT A STEADY RATE...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TELL A
DIFFERENT STORY.

DAILY NORMALS ARE CREATED USING A HARMONIC FIT...A METHOD EMPLOYED
TO DAMPEN OUTLIERS. THE RESULT ASSURES A SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM ONE
DAY TO THE NEXT...BUT THIS SMOOTHING REMOVES INTRICACIES IN THE DATA
THAT CAN REVEAL MORE ABRUPT SEASONAL TRANSITIONS. FOR EXAMPLE...MUCH
OF THE DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING LATE AUGUST OCCURS IN A
2-DAY SPAN BETWEEN AUGUST 26 AND 28.

THE DATA BELOW ARE BASED ON THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE RECORD
1981-2010.

               AVERAGE       NORMAL
             HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

AUGUST 26    97.4 / 75.4     95 / 74
AUGUST 28    93.5 / 73.4     94 / 74

THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE (1981-2010) ACTUALLY INCREASES BETWEEN
AUGUST 17 AND 26. THE SUDDEN 3.9-DEGREE DROP IN JUST 2 DAYS (AUGUST
26-28) IS THUS VERY SIGNIFICANT.

THESE ARE NOT SIMPLY ARTIFACTS OF A 30-YEAR DATA SET. USING THE
ENTIRE CLIMATE RECORD (WHICH BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER 1898) YIELDS A
DECREASE IN THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN AUGUST 17 AND 26
(1.2 DEGREES) THAT IS STILL LESS THAN THE 2-DAY SPAN AUGUST 26-28
(1.4 DEGREES). AND YES...WHEN INCORPORATING THE ENTIRE CLIMATE
RECORD OF MORE THAN A CENTURY OF DATA...THE TIME FRAME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT DROP REMAINS AUGUST 26-28.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

IT MEANS THAT HISTORICAL FRONTAL PASSAGES CLUSTER AROUND THESE
DATES...SHOWING A TENDENCY FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LATE SUMMER
FRONT TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE 2014 MAY FOLLOW SUIT. THE
GFS PROJECTS A FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEK ON AUGUST 28.

DOES THIS MEAN FALL HAS ARRIVED?

NOT QUITE YET...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 90S EVEN
IF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. NORMAL (AND AVERAGE) HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL IN THE 90S IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OCCURS AROUND THE
AUTUMNAL EQUINOX...WHICH IS ONLY A MONTH AWAY. (THE BELOW ARE BASED
ON DFW DATA 1981-2010.)

                  AVERAGE       NORMAL
                HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

SEPTEMBER 20    88.1 / 65.8     87 / 66
SEPTEMBER 24    83.1 / 62.6     85 / 64

PERHAPS THERE IS SOMETHING TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  78  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         98  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  76  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 211614
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1114 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE REGION AS
DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A PARTLY CLOUDY
AND HOT AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.


79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

MAINLY VFR WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BRIEF
ROUNDS OF MVFR CIGS WILL POSE CHALLENGES EACH MORNING BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND MID MORNING...MAINLY AT WACO. STRONG 30-35 KT LLJ FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE FRIDAY MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH HAVING MOVED FURTHER
EAST. FOR THIS MORNING ONLY...MVFR CIGS 2.5 KFT WILL BE PATCHY
ENOUGH THAT A TEMPO GROUP AT EASTERN DFW AIRPORTS WILL LIKELY
SUFFICE. MIXING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY EACH DAY AND DO NOT EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO LAST MORE THAN 2-3 HRS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ SHOULD MIX EASILY DOWN BY LATE MORNING WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25 KTS. PRESSURE
FALLS TO THE WEST WILL ALSO KEEP WINDS UP...EVEN INTO TONIGHT WITH
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
REMARKABLY STOUT LLJ FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (35-40KTS) HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT THIN) STRATUS ALONG THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. A FIBROUS DECK HAS INVADED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A FEW FRAGMENTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER DAYBREAK. AS THESE STRONG WINDS MIX WITH THE
SURFACE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING...WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN.
SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES...BUT THE WIND WILL HELP TAKE AN EDGE OFF THE
HEAT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...EXPECT
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TAKING A SHARP LEFT TURN INTO THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD FARTHER WEST THE PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEATLY STACKED VERTICALLY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM 10KFT ABOVE MSL TO AROUND 35KFT...WHICH WILL
ASSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ITS
INTENSITY IS STILL RATHER ORDINARY FOR AUGUST...AND ITS PLACEMENT
EAST OF TEXAS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL HEATING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER. THIS WILL REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FROM
WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...MEANING THAT ACHIEVING TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT. A NIGHTLY LLJ WILL
MEAN REPEATED STRATUS INTRUSIONS...PRIMARILY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL DO LITTLE TO
PREVENT HOT AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 100 BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105.

A PIECE OF UPPER VORTICITY IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE
TUTT SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH IT WILL
GUIDE IT NORTHWARD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE POLAR JET WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHEAR IT...BUT THE TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THE
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND SHOULD BE UNABLE TO
DISRUPT THE DEEP SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT.

AS THE UPPER LOW ENTERS CANADA...THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF
THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL MEAN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE MORNING
STRATUS AND WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE OPPRESSIVE...
BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW AND THE GFS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS IN THAT IT KEEPS THE FLOW UNIMPEDED. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE CONSENSUS FAVORS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED NORTH WINDS AND
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE WILL NOT
APPEAR IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.

25



&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES
AND WILL RESULT IN HIGHS BETWEEN THE MID 90S AND 102 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM BECOMING
TOO STRONG. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS FOR A HIGH FIRE DANGER...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE...DECATUR...COMANCHE LINE. FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT BOTH POSSUM KINGDOM RESERVOIR AND MILLER/S CREEK RAWS
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW 10...INDICATING SOME DRYING OF
FINE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST MAY SEE OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS BUT WILL ALSO SEE RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO MID TO UPPER 90S. THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

05

&&

.CLIMATE...
LATE AUGUST FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE REMARKABLY COMMON. ALTHOUGH NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES (BASED ON DFW DATA 1981-2010) GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER AUGUST 17 AT A STEADY RATE...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TELL A
DIFFERENT STORY.

DAILY NORMALS ARE CREATED USING A HARMONIC FIT...A METHOD EMPLOYED
TO DAMPEN OUTLIERS. THE RESULT ASSURES A SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM ONE
DAY TO THE NEXT...BUT THIS SMOOTHING REMOVES INTRICACIES IN THE DATA
THAT CAN REVEAL MORE ABRUPT SEASONAL TRANSITIONS. FOR EXAMPLE...MUCH
OF THE DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING LATE AUGUST OCCURS IN A
2-DAY SPAN BETWEEN AUGUST 26 AND 28.

THE DATA BELOW ARE BASED ON THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE RECORD
1981-2010.

               AVERAGE       NORMAL
             HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

AUGUST 26    97.4 / 75.4     95 / 74
AUGUST 28    93.5 / 73.4     94 / 74

THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE (1981-2010) ACTUALLY INCREASES BETWEEN
AUGUST 17 AND 26. THE SUDDEN 3.9-DEGREE DROP IN JUST 2 DAYS (AUGUST
26-28) IS THUS VERY SIGNIFICANT.

THESE ARE NOT SIMPLY ARTIFACTS OF A 30-YEAR DATA SET. USING THE
ENTIRE CLIMATE RECORD (WHICH BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER 1898) YIELDS A
DECREASE IN THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN AUGUST 17 AND 26
(1.2 DEGREES) THAT IS STILL LESS THAN THE 2-DAY SPAN AUGUST 26-28
(1.4 DEGREES). AND YES...WHEN INCORPORATING THE ENTIRE CLIMATE
RECORD OF MORE THAN A CENTURY OF DATA...THE TIME FRAME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT DROP REMAINS AUGUST 26-28.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

IT MEANS THAT HISTORICAL FRONTAL PASSAGES CLUSTER AROUND THESE
DATES...SHOWING A TENDENCY FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LATE SUMMER
FRONT TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE 2014 MAY FOLLOW SUIT. THE
GFS PROJECTS A FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEK ON AUGUST 28.

DOES THIS MEAN FALL HAS ARRIVED?

NOT QUITE YET...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 90S EVEN
IF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. NORMAL (AND AVERAGE) HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL IN THE 90S IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OCCURS AROUND THE
AUTUMNAL EQUINOX...WHICH IS ONLY A MONTH AWAY. (THE BELOW ARE BASED
ON DFW DATA 1981-2010.)

                  AVERAGE       NORMAL
                HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

SEPTEMBER 20    88.1 / 65.8     87 / 66
SEPTEMBER 24    83.1 / 62.6     85 / 64

PERHAPS THERE IS SOMETHING TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  78  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         98  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  76  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/79






000
FXUS64 KFWD 211614
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1114 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE REGION AS
DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A PARTLY CLOUDY
AND HOT AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 101.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.


79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
/12Z TAFS/

MAINLY VFR WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BRIEF
ROUNDS OF MVFR CIGS WILL POSE CHALLENGES EACH MORNING BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND MID MORNING...MAINLY AT WACO. STRONG 30-35 KT LLJ FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE FRIDAY MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH HAVING MOVED FURTHER
EAST. FOR THIS MORNING ONLY...MVFR CIGS 2.5 KFT WILL BE PATCHY
ENOUGH THAT A TEMPO GROUP AT EASTERN DFW AIRPORTS WILL LIKELY
SUFFICE. MIXING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY EACH DAY AND DO NOT EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO LAST MORE THAN 2-3 HRS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ SHOULD MIX EASILY DOWN BY LATE MORNING WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25 KTS. PRESSURE
FALLS TO THE WEST WILL ALSO KEEP WINDS UP...EVEN INTO TONIGHT WITH
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
REMARKABLY STOUT LLJ FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (35-40KTS) HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT THIN) STRATUS ALONG THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. A FIBROUS DECK HAS INVADED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A FEW FRAGMENTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER DAYBREAK. AS THESE STRONG WINDS MIX WITH THE
SURFACE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING...WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN.
SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES...BUT THE WIND WILL HELP TAKE AN EDGE OFF THE
HEAT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...EXPECT
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TAKING A SHARP LEFT TURN INTO THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD FARTHER WEST THE PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEATLY STACKED VERTICALLY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM 10KFT ABOVE MSL TO AROUND 35KFT...WHICH WILL
ASSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ITS
INTENSITY IS STILL RATHER ORDINARY FOR AUGUST...AND ITS PLACEMENT
EAST OF TEXAS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL HEATING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER. THIS WILL REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FROM
WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...MEANING THAT ACHIEVING TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT. A NIGHTLY LLJ WILL
MEAN REPEATED STRATUS INTRUSIONS...PRIMARILY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL DO LITTLE TO
PREVENT HOT AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 100 BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105.

A PIECE OF UPPER VORTICITY IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE
TUTT SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH IT WILL
GUIDE IT NORTHWARD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE POLAR JET WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHEAR IT...BUT THE TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THE
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND SHOULD BE UNABLE TO
DISRUPT THE DEEP SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT.

AS THE UPPER LOW ENTERS CANADA...THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF
THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL MEAN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE MORNING
STRATUS AND WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE OPPRESSIVE...
BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW AND THE GFS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS IN THAT IT KEEPS THE FLOW UNIMPEDED. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE CONSENSUS FAVORS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED NORTH WINDS AND
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE WILL NOT
APPEAR IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.

25



&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES
AND WILL RESULT IN HIGHS BETWEEN THE MID 90S AND 102 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM BECOMING
TOO STRONG. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS FOR A HIGH FIRE DANGER...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE...DECATUR...COMANCHE LINE. FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT BOTH POSSUM KINGDOM RESERVOIR AND MILLER/S CREEK RAWS
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW 10...INDICATING SOME DRYING OF
FINE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST MAY SEE OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS BUT WILL ALSO SEE RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO MID TO UPPER 90S. THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

05

&&

.CLIMATE...
LATE AUGUST FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE REMARKABLY COMMON. ALTHOUGH NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES (BASED ON DFW DATA 1981-2010) GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER AUGUST 17 AT A STEADY RATE...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TELL A
DIFFERENT STORY.

DAILY NORMALS ARE CREATED USING A HARMONIC FIT...A METHOD EMPLOYED
TO DAMPEN OUTLIERS. THE RESULT ASSURES A SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM ONE
DAY TO THE NEXT...BUT THIS SMOOTHING REMOVES INTRICACIES IN THE DATA
THAT CAN REVEAL MORE ABRUPT SEASONAL TRANSITIONS. FOR EXAMPLE...MUCH
OF THE DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING LATE AUGUST OCCURS IN A
2-DAY SPAN BETWEEN AUGUST 26 AND 28.

THE DATA BELOW ARE BASED ON THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE RECORD
1981-2010.

               AVERAGE       NORMAL
             HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

AUGUST 26    97.4 / 75.4     95 / 74
AUGUST 28    93.5 / 73.4     94 / 74

THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE (1981-2010) ACTUALLY INCREASES BETWEEN
AUGUST 17 AND 26. THE SUDDEN 3.9-DEGREE DROP IN JUST 2 DAYS (AUGUST
26-28) IS THUS VERY SIGNIFICANT.

THESE ARE NOT SIMPLY ARTIFACTS OF A 30-YEAR DATA SET. USING THE
ENTIRE CLIMATE RECORD (WHICH BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER 1898) YIELDS A
DECREASE IN THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN AUGUST 17 AND 26
(1.2 DEGREES) THAT IS STILL LESS THAN THE 2-DAY SPAN AUGUST 26-28
(1.4 DEGREES). AND YES...WHEN INCORPORATING THE ENTIRE CLIMATE
RECORD OF MORE THAN A CENTURY OF DATA...THE TIME FRAME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT DROP REMAINS AUGUST 26-28.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

IT MEANS THAT HISTORICAL FRONTAL PASSAGES CLUSTER AROUND THESE
DATES...SHOWING A TENDENCY FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LATE SUMMER
FRONT TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE 2014 MAY FOLLOW SUIT. THE
GFS PROJECTS A FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEK ON AUGUST 28.

DOES THIS MEAN FALL HAS ARRIVED?

NOT QUITE YET...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 90S EVEN
IF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. NORMAL (AND AVERAGE) HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL IN THE 90S IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OCCURS AROUND THE
AUTUMNAL EQUINOX...WHICH IS ONLY A MONTH AWAY. (THE BELOW ARE BASED
ON DFW DATA 1981-2010.)

                  AVERAGE       NORMAL
                HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

SEPTEMBER 20    88.1 / 65.8     87 / 66
SEPTEMBER 24    83.1 / 62.6     85 / 64

PERHAPS THERE IS SOMETHING TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  78  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         98  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  76  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/79






000
FXUS64 KCRP 211552 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1052 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...12Z CRP/BRO SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR BETWEEN
3-10 KFT. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG INTRUSION OF DRIER
AIR OVER ALL OF THE REGION...PWAT VALUES FROM 1.25 TO 1.6 INCHES.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN 35-40 KNOTS OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND WINDS ALREADY HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE IS SLIGHTLY WARMER
THIS MORNING...SO CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. STILL EXPECT HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR 110 OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA AREA.
NO CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.MARINE...SPORT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE COMPOSITE INDICATED AN
AREA OF UPWELLING/LOWER TEMPS OFF THE COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT ARANSAS WITH WATER TEMPS 80-81 DEGREES. THE COOLER TEMPS
WILL INHIBIT MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS.
SO CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF SCA FOR ONLY SOUTHERN BAYS LOOKS GOOD.
WILL UPDATE TO MOVE FORWARD THE START TIME FOR SCA TO NOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
NO CHANGE TO RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  80  97  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  81 105  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  78 102  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  83  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  78 103  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  82  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 211552 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1052 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...12Z CRP/BRO SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR BETWEEN
3-10 KFT. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG INTRUSION OF DRIER
AIR OVER ALL OF THE REGION...PWAT VALUES FROM 1.25 TO 1.6 INCHES.
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN 35-40 KNOTS OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND WINDS ALREADY HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE IS SLIGHTLY WARMER
THIS MORNING...SO CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT THE DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. STILL EXPECT HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR 110 OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA AREA.
NO CHANGES TO HEAT ADVISORY.

&&

.MARINE...SPORT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE COMPOSITE INDICATED AN
AREA OF UPWELLING/LOWER TEMPS OFF THE COAST FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT ARANSAS WITH WATER TEMPS 80-81 DEGREES. THE COOLER TEMPS
WILL INHIBIT MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS.
SO CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF SCA FOR ONLY SOUTHERN BAYS LOOKS GOOD.
WILL UPDATE TO MOVE FORWARD THE START TIME FOR SCA TO NOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
NO CHANGE TO RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  80  97  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  81 105  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  78 102  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  83  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  78 103  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  82  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KHGX 211551
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1051 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PER TRENDS SO FAR THIS MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE THE SLUG OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND THINGS ARE DRYING
OUT ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. NO CHANGES PLANNED ATTM AS THE CUR-
RENT FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE NOW INDICATING LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO FORM
TONIGHT. THESE WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE FAR LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. AT 250 MB BEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THANKS TO A BUILDING RIDGE. THE RAP PERFORMED
PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY AND SHOWS ALMOST NO RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
EXCEPT FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO IN SAN JACINTO AND LIBERTY
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF ALSO SHOWS THIS.
GIVEN THE EVIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL MAPS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS
MAKES SENSE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND POSITION ITSELF
NEAR THE ARKANSAS/ LOUISIANA BORDER ON FRIDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW RELATIVELY
LOW PWAT AIR IN PLACE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A CAP IN PLACE AT
850MB. ON MONDAY THE CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  77  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 211551
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1051 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PER TRENDS SO FAR THIS MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE THE SLUG OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND THINGS ARE DRYING
OUT ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. NO CHANGES PLANNED ATTM AS THE CUR-
RENT FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE NOW INDICATING LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO FORM
TONIGHT. THESE WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE FAR LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. AT 250 MB BEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THANKS TO A BUILDING RIDGE. THE RAP PERFORMED
PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY AND SHOWS ALMOST NO RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
EXCEPT FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO IN SAN JACINTO AND LIBERTY
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF ALSO SHOWS THIS.
GIVEN THE EVIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL MAPS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS
MAKES SENSE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND POSITION ITSELF
NEAR THE ARKANSAS/ LOUISIANA BORDER ON FRIDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW RELATIVELY
LOW PWAT AIR IN PLACE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A CAP IN PLACE AT
850MB. ON MONDAY THE CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  77  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 211551
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1051 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PER TRENDS SO FAR THIS MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE THE SLUG OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND THINGS ARE DRYING
OUT ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. NO CHANGES PLANNED ATTM AS THE CUR-
RENT FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE NOW INDICATING LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO FORM
TONIGHT. THESE WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE FAR LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. AT 250 MB BEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THANKS TO A BUILDING RIDGE. THE RAP PERFORMED
PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY AND SHOWS ALMOST NO RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
EXCEPT FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO IN SAN JACINTO AND LIBERTY
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF ALSO SHOWS THIS.
GIVEN THE EVIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL MAPS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS
MAKES SENSE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND POSITION ITSELF
NEAR THE ARKANSAS/ LOUISIANA BORDER ON FRIDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW RELATIVELY
LOW PWAT AIR IN PLACE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A CAP IN PLACE AT
850MB. ON MONDAY THE CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  77  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 211551
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1051 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PER TRENDS SO FAR THIS MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE THE SLUG OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND THINGS ARE DRYING
OUT ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. NO CHANGES PLANNED ATTM AS THE CUR-
RENT FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE NOW INDICATING LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO FORM
TONIGHT. THESE WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE FAR LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. AT 250 MB BEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THANKS TO A BUILDING RIDGE. THE RAP PERFORMED
PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY AND SHOWS ALMOST NO RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
EXCEPT FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO IN SAN JACINTO AND LIBERTY
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF ALSO SHOWS THIS.
GIVEN THE EVIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL MAPS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS
MAKES SENSE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND POSITION ITSELF
NEAR THE ARKANSAS/ LOUISIANA BORDER ON FRIDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW RELATIVELY
LOW PWAT AIR IN PLACE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A CAP IN PLACE AT
850MB. ON MONDAY THE CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  77  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KEWX 211416
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
916 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO SEE
105-110 DEG HEAT INDEX IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO
GONZALES TO FLORESVILLE LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR 103-105 DEG HEAT INDEX EXPECTED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HILL COUNTRY...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
REMAINED NEAR OR ABOVE 80 DEGS FOR LOWS THIS MORNING...COMPOUNDING
HEAT EXHAUSTION POTENTIAL. MINOR TWEAKS UP IN ACTUAL TEMP FORECAST
ALSO MADE BASED ON HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY...STARTING TEMPS FOR
TODAY...AND RIDGE BUILDING TOWARDS THE AREA.

ALSO...AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WHERE MIN RH VALUES DIP TO AROUND
25 PERCENT AND GUSTY WINDS OCCUR.

JR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
THE I-35 TAF SITES HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING DUE TO PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
THE STATUS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH 15Z CAUSING PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS. DEL RIO COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS...SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 13 TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRATUS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUILDING OVER THE I-35 TERMINALS
BETWEEN 07Z/08Z AND AT DRT AROUND 11Z FRIDAY MORNING THEN BURNING
OFF BY 16Z.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH
(AUS/SAT/SSF) AND SOUTHEAST (DRT). THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WE COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. WINDS WEAKEN TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM STORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY PROGRESS NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE HOT AND DRY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF ACTIVITY IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING HIGH MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IS THEREFORE DRYING
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PERSISTENT...AROUND THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF PRECIP COULD
BE A BIT SOONER THAN THAT DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR
NOW. JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT PACKAGE...THE GFS IS FORECASTING A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS THURSDAY/FRIDAY BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OF THE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN SO IT DOES BEAR
WATCHING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             101  78  99  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 101  76  99  73  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    102  75 100  72  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            98  75  96  73  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  78  98  75  97 /  10   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        99  79  97  74  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  75  98  72  97 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       100  77  99  73  97 /  -   -    0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  102  79  99  76  99 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      100  80  99  76  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          102  78 100  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...
LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KBRO 211321
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
821 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OVER THE
LAGUNA MADRE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING TODAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS INTACT WITH HOT TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A BIT OF LIGHT GROUND FOG THIS MORNING AT HRL...
DESPITE A DECENT DEW POINT SPREAD AND SOME WIND....RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS THERE. VSBY AT HRL WILL IMPROVE WITH DAYLIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE LOWER RGV BY MID MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL DEVELOP...BUT CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY GET GOING JUST
BEFORE NOON...BUT KEPT OVERALL POPS SILENT FOR TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...A STUBBORN H5 HIGH HEIGHT
CENTER WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SAME AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND TO KEEP STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS WEST AND MORE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY...WINDS MIGHT BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MUTED AS DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...WITH PWAT SINKING BELOW 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE.

TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST BY MID
MORNING AS SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME MODERATE TO BREEZY. A WEAK
SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING...BUT POPS ARE SILENT
FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 90S EAST
TO THE CENTURY MARK AND ABOVE WEST OF U.S. 77 AND INLAND TO THE
UPPER VALLEY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 110...AND
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...A FEW LESS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A BIT MORE SUN AS RIDGING
OVER THE NORTH GULF SHIFTS WEST. TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ALLOWING RESIDENT RIDGING OVER THE GULF TO
AMPLIFY AND SHIFT FARTHER WEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL MIMIC THOSE OF
THURSDAY...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AND MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE AROUND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND
THEN WEAKEN AND HEAD NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE
AND LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE ON TOP OF US FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL SEE A FEW SURGES OF MOISTURE BEGINNING SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS
TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALBEIT NOT THE
GREATEST OF CHANCES. PWATS LOOK TO JUMP UP TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES
THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. AN UPPER TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF EARLY MONDAY THEN INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS TUESDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS LOOK REASONABLE DESPITE DECREASING PWATS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALL IN ALL DIDN`T PLAY MUCH WITH THE GOING POPS. EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORM INITIATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN BORDER...LOW 100S ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS IN ZAPATA
COUNTY...TO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY. SHAVED
A DEGREE OFF HIGHS HERE AND THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE SEA BREEZE MAY GET GOING AND CLOUD COVER WOULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT. WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL WITH THE BREEZIER DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY WHERE NEAR 20 MPH WILL
BE COMMON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS...AS WELL AS ON THE GULF WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT...BUT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. ISOLD SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON THE GULF BUT THE CONVECTIVE
SITUATION FOR THE MARINE AREAS LOOKS MUTED OVERALL IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS AND SEAS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST TOWARD EAST TEXAS...OR CLOSER
TO OVERHEAD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS COMPARED TO THIS WEEK SO
FAR...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS EACH DAY. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL FROM MODERATE
LEVELS SATURDAY TO LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/68






000
FXUS64 KFWD 211143 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
643 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MAINLY VFR WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BRIEF
ROUNDS OF MVFR CIGS WILL POSE CHALLENGES EACH MORNING BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND MID MORNING...MAINLY AT WACO. STRONG 30-35 KT LLJ FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE FRIDAY MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH HAVING MOVED FURTHER
EAST. FOR THIS MORNING ONLY...MVFR CIGS 2.5 KFT WILL BE PATCHY
ENOUGH THAT A TEMPO GROUP AT EASTERN DFW AIRPORTS WILL LIKELY
SUFFICE. MIXING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY EACH DAY AND DO NOT EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO LAST MORE THAN 2-3 HRS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ SHOULD MIX EASILY DOWN BY LATE MORNING WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25 KTS. PRESSURE
FALLS TO THE WEST WILL ALSO KEEP WINDS UP...EVEN INTO TONIGHT WITH
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
REMARKABLY STOUT LLJ FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (35-40KTS) HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT THIN) STRATUS ALONG THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. A FIBROUS DECK HAS INVADED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A FEW FRAGMENTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER DAYBREAK. AS THESE STRONG WINDS MIX WITH THE
SURFACE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING...WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN.
SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES...BUT THE WIND WILL HELP TAKE AN EDGE OFF THE
HEAT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...EXPECT
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TAKING A SHARP LEFT TURN INTO THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD FARTHER WEST THE PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEATLY STACKED VERTICALLY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM 10KFT ABOVE MSL TO AROUND 35KFT...WHICH WILL
ASSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ITS
INTENSITY IS STILL RATHER ORDINARY FOR AUGUST...AND ITS PLACEMENT
EAST OF TEXAS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL HEATING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER. THIS WILL REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FROM
WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...MEANING THAT ACHIEVING TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT. A NIGHTLY LLJ WILL
MEAN REPEATED STRATUS INTRUSIONS...PRIMARILY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL DO LITTLE TO
PREVENT HOT AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 100 BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105.

A PIECE OF UPPER VORTICITY IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE
TUTT SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH IT WILL
GUIDE IT NORTHWARD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE POLAR JET WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHEAR IT...BUT THE TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THE
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND SHOULD BE UNABLE TO
DISRUPT THE DEEP SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT.

AS THE UPPER LOW ENTERS CANADA...THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF
THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL MEAN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE MORNING
STRATUS AND WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE OPPRESSIVE...
BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW AND THE GFS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS IN THAT IT KEEPS THE FLOW UNIMPEDED. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE CONSENSUS FAVORS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED NORTH WINDS AND
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE WILL NOT
APPEAR IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.

25

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES
AND WILL RESULT IN HIGHS BETWEEN THE MID 90S AND 102 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM BECOMING
TOO STRONG. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS FOR A HIGH FIRE DANGER...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE...DECATUR...COMANCHE LINE. FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT BOTH POSSUM KINGDOM RESERVOIR AND MILLER/S CREEK RAWS
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW 10...INDICATING SOME DRYING OF
FINE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST MAY SEE OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS BUT WILL ALSO SEE RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO MID TO UPPER 90S. THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

05

&&

.CLIMATE...
LATE AUGUST FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE REMARKABLY COMMON. ALTHOUGH NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES (BASED ON DFW DATA 1981-2010) GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER AUGUST 17 AT A STEADY RATE...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TELL A
DIFFERENT STORY.

DAILY NORMALS ARE CREATED USING A HARMONIC FIT...A METHOD EMPLOYED
TO DAMPEN OUTLIERS. THE RESULT ASSURES A SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM ONE
DAY TO THE NEXT...BUT THIS SMOOTHING REMOVES INTRICACIES IN THE DATA
THAT CAN REVEAL MORE ABRUPT SEASONAL TRANSITIONS. FOR EXAMPLE...MUCH
OF THE DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING LATE AUGUST OCCURS IN A
2-DAY SPAN BETWEEN AUGUST 26 AND 28.

THE DATA BELOW ARE BASED ON THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE RECORD
1981-2010.

               AVERAGE       NORMAL
             HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

AUGUST 26    97.4 / 75.4     95 / 74
AUGUST 28    93.5 / 73.4     94 / 74

THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE (1981-2010) ACTUALLY INCREASES BETWEEN
AUGUST 17 AND 26. THE SUDDEN 3.9-DEGREE DROP IN JUST 2 DAYS (AUGUST
26-28) IS THUS VERY SIGNIFICANT.

THESE ARE NOT SIMPLY ARTIFACTS OF A 30-YEAR DATA SET. USING THE
ENTIRE CLIMATE RECORD (WHICH BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER 1898) YIELDS A
DECREASE IN THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN AUGUST 17 AND 26
(1.2 DEGREES) THAT IS STILL LESS THAN THE 2-DAY SPAN AUGUST 26-28
(1.4 DEGREES). AND YES...WHEN INCORPORATING THE ENTIRE CLIMATE
RECORD OF MORE THAN A CENTURY OF DATA...THE TIME FRAME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT DROP REMAINS AUGUST 26-28.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

IT MEANS THAT HISTORICAL FRONTAL PASSAGES CLUSTER AROUND THESE
DATES...SHOWING A TENDENCY FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LATE SUMMER
FRONT TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE 2014 MAY FOLLOW SUIT. THE
GFS PROJECTS A FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEK ON AUGUST 28.

DOES THIS MEAN FALL HAS ARRIVED?

NOT QUITE YET...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 90S EVEN
IF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. NORMAL (AND AVERAGE) HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL IN THE 90S IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OCCURS AROUND THE
AUTUMNAL EQUINOX...WHICH IS ONLY A MONTH AWAY. (THE BELOW ARE BASED
ON DFW DATA 1981-2010.)

                  AVERAGE       NORMAL
                HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

SEPTEMBER 20    88.1 / 65.8     87 / 66
SEPTEMBER 24    83.1 / 62.6     85 / 64

PERHAPS THERE IS SOMETHING TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  78  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         98  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  76  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 211143 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
643 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MAINLY VFR WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BRIEF
ROUNDS OF MVFR CIGS WILL POSE CHALLENGES EACH MORNING BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND MID MORNING...MAINLY AT WACO. STRONG 30-35 KT LLJ FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS EXPECTED TO VEER MORE FRIDAY MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH HAVING MOVED FURTHER
EAST. FOR THIS MORNING ONLY...MVFR CIGS 2.5 KFT WILL BE PATCHY
ENOUGH THAT A TEMPO GROUP AT EASTERN DFW AIRPORTS WILL LIKELY
SUFFICE. MIXING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY EACH DAY AND DO NOT EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO LAST MORE THAN 2-3 HRS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ SHOULD MIX EASILY DOWN BY LATE MORNING WITH
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25 KTS. PRESSURE
FALLS TO THE WEST WILL ALSO KEEP WINDS UP...EVEN INTO TONIGHT WITH
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/
REMARKABLY STOUT LLJ FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (35-40KTS) HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT THIN) STRATUS ALONG THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. A FIBROUS DECK HAS INVADED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A FEW FRAGMENTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER DAYBREAK. AS THESE STRONG WINDS MIX WITH THE
SURFACE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING...WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN.
SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES...BUT THE WIND WILL HELP TAKE AN EDGE OFF THE
HEAT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...EXPECT
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TAKING A SHARP LEFT TURN INTO THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD FARTHER WEST THE PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEATLY STACKED VERTICALLY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM 10KFT ABOVE MSL TO AROUND 35KFT...WHICH WILL
ASSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ITS
INTENSITY IS STILL RATHER ORDINARY FOR AUGUST...AND ITS PLACEMENT
EAST OF TEXAS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL HEATING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER. THIS WILL REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FROM
WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...MEANING THAT ACHIEVING TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT. A NIGHTLY LLJ WILL
MEAN REPEATED STRATUS INTRUSIONS...PRIMARILY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL DO LITTLE TO
PREVENT HOT AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 100 BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105.

A PIECE OF UPPER VORTICITY IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE
TUTT SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH IT WILL
GUIDE IT NORTHWARD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE POLAR JET WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHEAR IT...BUT THE TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THE
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND SHOULD BE UNABLE TO
DISRUPT THE DEEP SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT.

AS THE UPPER LOW ENTERS CANADA...THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF
THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL MEAN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE MORNING
STRATUS AND WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE OPPRESSIVE...
BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW AND THE GFS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS IN THAT IT KEEPS THE FLOW UNIMPEDED. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE CONSENSUS FAVORS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED NORTH WINDS AND
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE WILL NOT
APPEAR IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.

25

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES
AND WILL RESULT IN HIGHS BETWEEN THE MID 90S AND 102 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM BECOMING
TOO STRONG. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS FOR A HIGH FIRE DANGER...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE...DECATUR...COMANCHE LINE. FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT BOTH POSSUM KINGDOM RESERVOIR AND MILLER/S CREEK RAWS
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW 10...INDICATING SOME DRYING OF
FINE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST MAY SEE OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS BUT WILL ALSO SEE RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO MID TO UPPER 90S. THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

05

&&

.CLIMATE...
LATE AUGUST FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE REMARKABLY COMMON. ALTHOUGH NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES (BASED ON DFW DATA 1981-2010) GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER AUGUST 17 AT A STEADY RATE...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TELL A
DIFFERENT STORY.

DAILY NORMALS ARE CREATED USING A HARMONIC FIT...A METHOD EMPLOYED
TO DAMPEN OUTLIERS. THE RESULT ASSURES A SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM ONE
DAY TO THE NEXT...BUT THIS SMOOTHING REMOVES INTRICACIES IN THE DATA
THAT CAN REVEAL MORE ABRUPT SEASONAL TRANSITIONS. FOR EXAMPLE...MUCH
OF THE DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING LATE AUGUST OCCURS IN A
2-DAY SPAN BETWEEN AUGUST 26 AND 28.

THE DATA BELOW ARE BASED ON THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE RECORD
1981-2010.

               AVERAGE       NORMAL
             HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

AUGUST 26    97.4 / 75.4     95 / 74
AUGUST 28    93.5 / 73.4     94 / 74

THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE (1981-2010) ACTUALLY INCREASES BETWEEN
AUGUST 17 AND 26. THE SUDDEN 3.9-DEGREE DROP IN JUST 2 DAYS (AUGUST
26-28) IS THUS VERY SIGNIFICANT.

THESE ARE NOT SIMPLY ARTIFACTS OF A 30-YEAR DATA SET. USING THE
ENTIRE CLIMATE RECORD (WHICH BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER 1898) YIELDS A
DECREASE IN THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN AUGUST 17 AND 26
(1.2 DEGREES) THAT IS STILL LESS THAN THE 2-DAY SPAN AUGUST 26-28
(1.4 DEGREES). AND YES...WHEN INCORPORATING THE ENTIRE CLIMATE
RECORD OF MORE THAN A CENTURY OF DATA...THE TIME FRAME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT DROP REMAINS AUGUST 26-28.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

IT MEANS THAT HISTORICAL FRONTAL PASSAGES CLUSTER AROUND THESE
DATES...SHOWING A TENDENCY FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LATE SUMMER
FRONT TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE 2014 MAY FOLLOW SUIT. THE
GFS PROJECTS A FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEK ON AUGUST 28.

DOES THIS MEAN FALL HAS ARRIVED?

NOT QUITE YET...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 90S EVEN
IF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. NORMAL (AND AVERAGE) HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL IN THE 90S IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OCCURS AROUND THE
AUTUMNAL EQUINOX...WHICH IS ONLY A MONTH AWAY. (THE BELOW ARE BASED
ON DFW DATA 1981-2010.)

                  AVERAGE       NORMAL
                HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

SEPTEMBER 20    88.1 / 65.8     87 / 66
SEPTEMBER 24    83.1 / 62.6     85 / 64

PERHAPS THERE IS SOMETHING TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  78  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         98  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  76  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25






000
FXUS64 KCRP 211139 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF TEMPO MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS MRNG THEN VFR
PREVAILING REMAINDER OF TODAY. PATCHES OF STRATUS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NWRD IN SRLY FLOW WITH TERMINALS HAVING POTENTIAL TO EXPERIENCE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MID MRNG...WITH KALI HAVING
BEST CHANCES TO EXPERIENCE BRIEF STRATUS. OTHERWISE...DRIER
AIRMASS ABOVE THE SFC WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND OVERALL VFR. SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS AND
DVLPMNT OF MVFR CIGS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD MAY IMPACT KVCT/KALI.
SRLY LLJ WILL MIX TO THE SFC THIS MRNG LEADING TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ENTIRE REGION WITH SFC WINDS INTENSIFYING LATE
AFTN THRU EARLY EVENING...WITH STRONGEST WINDS OCCRNG AT KCRP.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. BRIEF PERIOD OF NON
CONVECTIVE LLWS WILL OCCUR AT KCRP/KALI TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD DUE TO SAID STRONG SRLY LLJ.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  80  97  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  81 105  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  78 102  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  83  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  78 103  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  82  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KSJT 211135
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings across much of West Central Texas this
morning, before clearing mid to late morning. Satellite and METAR
data indicate stratus is returning to West Central Texas. Expect
VFR conditions to return to all of West Central Texas by 18Z, as
drier air aloft mixes downward to dissipate the stratus.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Expect dry conditions for the next 24 hours, with afternoon highs
today above seasonal normals. As an upper ridge continues to
dominate the region, a thermal ridge at 850mb will expand into West
Central Texas this afternoon. This will help push afternoon highs
into mainly the upper 90s to around 100 range for most of West
Central Texas. Morning low clouds will help limit afternoon highs
across our southern counties to mainly around 95.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper level high over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday
will slowly move north during the weekend, and is progged to be
centered over southeastern Missouri and extreme southern Illinois
on Monday. This will be our dominant weather influence with clear
to partly cloudy skies through the early part of next week. Little
day-to-day change is expected with our temperatures. Highs will be
a few degrees above normal and mostly in the mid to upper 90s, with
overnight lows mostly in the lower 70s. Models continue to indicate
a few weak disturbances aloft lifting from New Mexico northeast
across the Texas Panhandle and into Kansas during the weekend. Any
associated convection is expected to stay to our west and
northwest.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF diverge in solutions Tuesday-Thursday of
next week, and this has implication on whether a weak cold front
may enter our area from the north. The GFS is more progressive
with the upper pattern and has a stronger upper trough moving east
across the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday, and across the
northern and central Plains Wednesday. The GFS has an upper ridge
building into the western part of the country behind the trough,
with weak northwest flow aloft developing over our area by the end
of the period. This setup would favor a weak cold front moving
south into our counties late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
some possibility of shower/thunderstorm development. The ECMWF
closes off an upper low over northern California Monday night,
then takes it slowly east to near the Idaho/Utah/Wyoming border by
Wednesday night. The ECMWF also has the upper high drifting back
to the southwest, to along the Oklahoma/Arkansas border Tuesday
night.

Given the considerable model differences and uncertainty at this
time, leaning toward persistence with the forecast on Day 7 (next
Wednesday).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  76  97  72  97 /   0   5   0   0   5
San Angelo  97  75  97  71  97 /   0   5   0   0   5
Junction  95  75  95  70  95 /   5   0   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation: Huber
Long Term: 19







000
FXUS64 KSJT 211135
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings across much of West Central Texas this
morning, before clearing mid to late morning. Satellite and METAR
data indicate stratus is returning to West Central Texas. Expect
VFR conditions to return to all of West Central Texas by 18Z, as
drier air aloft mixes downward to dissipate the stratus.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Expect dry conditions for the next 24 hours, with afternoon highs
today above seasonal normals. As an upper ridge continues to
dominate the region, a thermal ridge at 850mb will expand into West
Central Texas this afternoon. This will help push afternoon highs
into mainly the upper 90s to around 100 range for most of West
Central Texas. Morning low clouds will help limit afternoon highs
across our southern counties to mainly around 95.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper level high over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday
will slowly move north during the weekend, and is progged to be
centered over southeastern Missouri and extreme southern Illinois
on Monday. This will be our dominant weather influence with clear
to partly cloudy skies through the early part of next week. Little
day-to-day change is expected with our temperatures. Highs will be
a few degrees above normal and mostly in the mid to upper 90s, with
overnight lows mostly in the lower 70s. Models continue to indicate
a few weak disturbances aloft lifting from New Mexico northeast
across the Texas Panhandle and into Kansas during the weekend. Any
associated convection is expected to stay to our west and
northwest.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF diverge in solutions Tuesday-Thursday of
next week, and this has implication on whether a weak cold front
may enter our area from the north. The GFS is more progressive
with the upper pattern and has a stronger upper trough moving east
across the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday, and across the
northern and central Plains Wednesday. The GFS has an upper ridge
building into the western part of the country behind the trough,
with weak northwest flow aloft developing over our area by the end
of the period. This setup would favor a weak cold front moving
south into our counties late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
some possibility of shower/thunderstorm development. The ECMWF
closes off an upper low over northern California Monday night,
then takes it slowly east to near the Idaho/Utah/Wyoming border by
Wednesday night. The ECMWF also has the upper high drifting back
to the southwest, to along the Oklahoma/Arkansas border Tuesday
night.

Given the considerable model differences and uncertainty at this
time, leaning toward persistence with the forecast on Day 7 (next
Wednesday).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  76  97  72  97 /   0   5   0   0   5
San Angelo  97  75  97  71  97 /   0   5   0   0   5
Junction  95  75  95  70  95 /   5   0   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation: Huber
Long Term: 19







000
FXUS64 KSJT 211135
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings across much of West Central Texas this
morning, before clearing mid to late morning. Satellite and METAR
data indicate stratus is returning to West Central Texas. Expect
VFR conditions to return to all of West Central Texas by 18Z, as
drier air aloft mixes downward to dissipate the stratus.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Expect dry conditions for the next 24 hours, with afternoon highs
today above seasonal normals. As an upper ridge continues to
dominate the region, a thermal ridge at 850mb will expand into West
Central Texas this afternoon. This will help push afternoon highs
into mainly the upper 90s to around 100 range for most of West
Central Texas. Morning low clouds will help limit afternoon highs
across our southern counties to mainly around 95.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper level high over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday
will slowly move north during the weekend, and is progged to be
centered over southeastern Missouri and extreme southern Illinois
on Monday. This will be our dominant weather influence with clear
to partly cloudy skies through the early part of next week. Little
day-to-day change is expected with our temperatures. Highs will be
a few degrees above normal and mostly in the mid to upper 90s, with
overnight lows mostly in the lower 70s. Models continue to indicate
a few weak disturbances aloft lifting from New Mexico northeast
across the Texas Panhandle and into Kansas during the weekend. Any
associated convection is expected to stay to our west and
northwest.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF diverge in solutions Tuesday-Thursday of
next week, and this has implication on whether a weak cold front
may enter our area from the north. The GFS is more progressive
with the upper pattern and has a stronger upper trough moving east
across the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday, and across the
northern and central Plains Wednesday. The GFS has an upper ridge
building into the western part of the country behind the trough,
with weak northwest flow aloft developing over our area by the end
of the period. This setup would favor a weak cold front moving
south into our counties late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
some possibility of shower/thunderstorm development. The ECMWF
closes off an upper low over northern California Monday night,
then takes it slowly east to near the Idaho/Utah/Wyoming border by
Wednesday night. The ECMWF also has the upper high drifting back
to the southwest, to along the Oklahoma/Arkansas border Tuesday
night.

Given the considerable model differences and uncertainty at this
time, leaning toward persistence with the forecast on Day 7 (next
Wednesday).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  76  97  72  97 /   0   5   0   0   5
San Angelo  97  75  97  71  97 /   0   5   0   0   5
Junction  95  75  95  70  95 /   5   0   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation: Huber
Long Term: 19







000
FXUS64 KSJT 211135
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings across much of West Central Texas this
morning, before clearing mid to late morning. Satellite and METAR
data indicate stratus is returning to West Central Texas. Expect
VFR conditions to return to all of West Central Texas by 18Z, as
drier air aloft mixes downward to dissipate the stratus.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Expect dry conditions for the next 24 hours, with afternoon highs
today above seasonal normals. As an upper ridge continues to
dominate the region, a thermal ridge at 850mb will expand into West
Central Texas this afternoon. This will help push afternoon highs
into mainly the upper 90s to around 100 range for most of West
Central Texas. Morning low clouds will help limit afternoon highs
across our southern counties to mainly around 95.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper level high over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday
will slowly move north during the weekend, and is progged to be
centered over southeastern Missouri and extreme southern Illinois
on Monday. This will be our dominant weather influence with clear
to partly cloudy skies through the early part of next week. Little
day-to-day change is expected with our temperatures. Highs will be
a few degrees above normal and mostly in the mid to upper 90s, with
overnight lows mostly in the lower 70s. Models continue to indicate
a few weak disturbances aloft lifting from New Mexico northeast
across the Texas Panhandle and into Kansas during the weekend. Any
associated convection is expected to stay to our west and
northwest.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF diverge in solutions Tuesday-Thursday of
next week, and this has implication on whether a weak cold front
may enter our area from the north. The GFS is more progressive
with the upper pattern and has a stronger upper trough moving east
across the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday, and across the
northern and central Plains Wednesday. The GFS has an upper ridge
building into the western part of the country behind the trough,
with weak northwest flow aloft developing over our area by the end
of the period. This setup would favor a weak cold front moving
south into our counties late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
some possibility of shower/thunderstorm development. The ECMWF
closes off an upper low over northern California Monday night,
then takes it slowly east to near the Idaho/Utah/Wyoming border by
Wednesday night. The ECMWF also has the upper high drifting back
to the southwest, to along the Oklahoma/Arkansas border Tuesday
night.

Given the considerable model differences and uncertainty at this
time, leaning toward persistence with the forecast on Day 7 (next
Wednesday).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  76  97  72  97 /   0   5   0   0   5
San Angelo  97  75  97  71  97 /   0   5   0   0   5
Junction  95  75  95  70  95 /   5   0   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation: Huber
Long Term: 19







000
FXUS64 KBRO 211133 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
633 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A BIT OF LIGHT GROUND FOG THIS MORNING AT HRL...
DESPITE A DECENT DEW POINT SPREAD AND SOME WIND....RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS THERE. VSBY AT HRL WILL IMPROVE WITH DAYLIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE LOWER RGV BY MID MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURE INLAND.
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL DEVELOP...BUT CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY GET GOING JUST
BEFORE NOON...BUT KEPT OVERALL POPS SILENT FOR TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...A STUBBORN H5 HIGH HEIGHT
CENTER WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SAME AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND TO KEEP STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS WEST AND MORE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY...WINDS MIGHT BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MUTED AS DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...WITH PWAT SINKING BELOW 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE.

TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST BY MID
MORNING AS SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME MODERATE TO BREEZY. A WEAK
SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING...BUT POPS ARE SILENT
FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 90S EAST
TO THE CENTURY MARK AND ABOVE WEST OF U.S. 77 AND INLAND TO THE
UPPER VALLEY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 110...AND
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...A FEW LESS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A BIT MORE SUN AS RIDGING
OVER THE NORTH GULF SHIFTS WEST. TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ALLOWING RESIDENT RIDGING OVER THE GULF TO
AMPLIFY AND SHIFT FARTHER WEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL MIMIC THOSE OF
THURSDAY...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AND MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE AROUND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND
THEN WEAKEN AND HEAD NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE
AND LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE ON TOP OF US FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL SEE A FEW SURGES OF MOISTURE BEGINNING SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS
TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALBEIT NOT THE
GREATEST OF CHANCES. PWATS LOOK TO JUMP UP TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES
THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. AN UPPER TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF EARLY MONDAY THEN INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS TUESDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS LOOK REASONABLE DESPITE DECREASING PWATS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALL IN ALL DIDN`T PLAY MUCH WITH THE GOING POPS. EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORM INITIATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN BORDER...LOW 100S ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS IN ZAPATA
COUNTY...TO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY. SHAVED
A DEGREE OFF HIGHS HERE AND THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE SEA BREEZE MAY GET GOING AND CLOUD COVER WOULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT. WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL WITH THE BREEZIER DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY WHERE NEAR 20 MPH WILL
BE COMMON.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS...AS WELL AS ON THE GULF WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT...BUT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. ISOLD SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON THE GULF BUT THE CONVECTIVE
SITUATION FOR THE MARINE AREAS LOOKS MUTED OVERALL IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS AND SEAS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST TOWARD EAST TEXAS...OR CLOSER
TO OVERHEAD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS COMPARED TO THIS WEEK SO
FAR...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS EACH DAY. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL FROM MODERATE
LEVELS SATURDAY TO LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55





000
FXUS64 KLUB 211128
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
DEEP MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES JUST WEST OF KLBB TODAY...WHILE KCDS
WILL BE ENOUGH EAST TO REMAIN DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. BULK OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB BUT DISAGREE ON MOVEMENT INTO THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT
OF KLBB FOR NOW. HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN BLOCKING LOWER LEVEL
SATELLITE VIEWS ARE NOW THINNING ENOUGH TO GIVE AT LEAST PARTIAL
VIEW NEAR THE GROUND...NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF KCDS OR
SOUTHEAST OF KLBB THIS MORNING THOUGH STILL WATCHING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS ALSO IS WITHIN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE
AS WELL AS A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH. DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
THIS MORNING. A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS POTENTIALLY COULD FACTOR IN LATER
TODAY. BUT IF ANYTHING...FLOW SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY FAVORING LESS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN ZONES. SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
GENERATING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
ZONES VERY SIMILAR TO OUR GOING FORECAST. WITHOUT CONVINCING
ARGUMENT TO FAVOR EITHER A DRY OR WET FORECAST TODAY...WE WILL
RETAIN THE GIST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TILTING BEST CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE MODEL FAVORED AREAS. EDGED TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS UP
A HALF-NOTCH IN LINE WITH TRENDS AND CLOSER TO YESTERDAYS MAXIMUMS.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN MODERATELY BREEZY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PEAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING TREND BY LATE EVENING...
ALSO FAVORING CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A FEW STORMS MAY
EXTEND JUST PAST MIDNIGHT SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD NEAR THE STATE LINE AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
PRECIP PUSH. THE GFS/NAM KEEP A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROF ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE CO-LOCATED WITH
FORCING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY PRETTY CONFINED TO THIS AREA AS STEERING
FLOW IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND IS FAIRLY WEAK. SOME STORMS MAY
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THAT SCENARIO IS
UNKNOWN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FROM THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
WESTWARD WHILE CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
HAVE LOST SOME OF ITS ENERGY AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. WHILE WEAKER...THE
SHORTWAVE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONVECT ALONG A SURFACE TROF
REMAINING FROM FRIDAY. WITH THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO COVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY BUT WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE RELAXED AS WE ARE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHILE CONTINUING TO
TAP MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS FUZZY BUT SOMEWHAT
DISCERNIBLE. THE GFS BRINGS A DEEPER TROF EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
PLAINS KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE TROF IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY AS RIDGING SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF GOES BY THE
PHILOSOPHY THAT SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE AND PROLONGS THE FROPA
TILL NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT TIME IT KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NV.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN BE MADE ON FROPA TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  65  90  61  86 /  30  30  30  30  20
TULIA         96  67  92  64  89 /  30  30  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     94  67  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     93  66  90  63  87 /  30  30  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       94  69  94  67  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  66  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  67  92  65  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     99  74  98  70  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          97  68  95  66  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  73  98  69  97 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05






000
FXUS64 KLUB 211128
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
DEEP MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES JUST WEST OF KLBB TODAY...WHILE KCDS
WILL BE ENOUGH EAST TO REMAIN DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. BULK OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB BUT DISAGREE ON MOVEMENT INTO THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT
OF KLBB FOR NOW. HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN BLOCKING LOWER LEVEL
SATELLITE VIEWS ARE NOW THINNING ENOUGH TO GIVE AT LEAST PARTIAL
VIEW NEAR THE GROUND...NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF KCDS OR
SOUTHEAST OF KLBB THIS MORNING THOUGH STILL WATCHING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS ALSO IS WITHIN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE
AS WELL AS A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH. DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
THIS MORNING. A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS POTENTIALLY COULD FACTOR IN LATER
TODAY. BUT IF ANYTHING...FLOW SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY FAVORING LESS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN ZONES. SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
GENERATING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
ZONES VERY SIMILAR TO OUR GOING FORECAST. WITHOUT CONVINCING
ARGUMENT TO FAVOR EITHER A DRY OR WET FORECAST TODAY...WE WILL
RETAIN THE GIST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TILTING BEST CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE MODEL FAVORED AREAS. EDGED TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS UP
A HALF-NOTCH IN LINE WITH TRENDS AND CLOSER TO YESTERDAYS MAXIMUMS.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN MODERATELY BREEZY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PEAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING TREND BY LATE EVENING...
ALSO FAVORING CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A FEW STORMS MAY
EXTEND JUST PAST MIDNIGHT SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD NEAR THE STATE LINE AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
PRECIP PUSH. THE GFS/NAM KEEP A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROF ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE CO-LOCATED WITH
FORCING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY PRETTY CONFINED TO THIS AREA AS STEERING
FLOW IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND IS FAIRLY WEAK. SOME STORMS MAY
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THAT SCENARIO IS
UNKNOWN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FROM THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
WESTWARD WHILE CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
HAVE LOST SOME OF ITS ENERGY AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. WHILE WEAKER...THE
SHORTWAVE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONVECT ALONG A SURFACE TROF
REMAINING FROM FRIDAY. WITH THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO COVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY BUT WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE RELAXED AS WE ARE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHILE CONTINUING TO
TAP MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS FUZZY BUT SOMEWHAT
DISCERNIBLE. THE GFS BRINGS A DEEPER TROF EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
PLAINS KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE TROF IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY AS RIDGING SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF GOES BY THE
PHILOSOPHY THAT SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE AND PROLONGS THE FROPA
TILL NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT TIME IT KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NV.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN BE MADE ON FROPA TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  65  90  61  86 /  30  30  30  30  20
TULIA         96  67  92  64  89 /  30  30  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     94  67  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     93  66  90  63  87 /  30  30  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       94  69  94  67  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  66  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  67  92  65  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     99  74  98  70  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          97  68  95  66  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  73  98  69  97 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05






000
FXUS64 KLUB 211128
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
DEEP MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES JUST WEST OF KLBB TODAY...WHILE KCDS
WILL BE ENOUGH EAST TO REMAIN DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. BULK OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB BUT DISAGREE ON MOVEMENT INTO THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT
OF KLBB FOR NOW. HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN BLOCKING LOWER LEVEL
SATELLITE VIEWS ARE NOW THINNING ENOUGH TO GIVE AT LEAST PARTIAL
VIEW NEAR THE GROUND...NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF KCDS OR
SOUTHEAST OF KLBB THIS MORNING THOUGH STILL WATCHING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS ALSO IS WITHIN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE
AS WELL AS A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH. DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
THIS MORNING. A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS POTENTIALLY COULD FACTOR IN LATER
TODAY. BUT IF ANYTHING...FLOW SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY FAVORING LESS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN ZONES. SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
GENERATING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
ZONES VERY SIMILAR TO OUR GOING FORECAST. WITHOUT CONVINCING
ARGUMENT TO FAVOR EITHER A DRY OR WET FORECAST TODAY...WE WILL
RETAIN THE GIST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TILTING BEST CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE MODEL FAVORED AREAS. EDGED TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS UP
A HALF-NOTCH IN LINE WITH TRENDS AND CLOSER TO YESTERDAYS MAXIMUMS.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN MODERATELY BREEZY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PEAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING TREND BY LATE EVENING...
ALSO FAVORING CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A FEW STORMS MAY
EXTEND JUST PAST MIDNIGHT SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD NEAR THE STATE LINE AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
PRECIP PUSH. THE GFS/NAM KEEP A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROF ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE CO-LOCATED WITH
FORCING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY PRETTY CONFINED TO THIS AREA AS STEERING
FLOW IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND IS FAIRLY WEAK. SOME STORMS MAY
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THAT SCENARIO IS
UNKNOWN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FROM THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
WESTWARD WHILE CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
HAVE LOST SOME OF ITS ENERGY AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. WHILE WEAKER...THE
SHORTWAVE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONVECT ALONG A SURFACE TROF
REMAINING FROM FRIDAY. WITH THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO COVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY BUT WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE RELAXED AS WE ARE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHILE CONTINUING TO
TAP MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS FUZZY BUT SOMEWHAT
DISCERNIBLE. THE GFS BRINGS A DEEPER TROF EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
PLAINS KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE TROF IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY AS RIDGING SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF GOES BY THE
PHILOSOPHY THAT SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE AND PROLONGS THE FROPA
TILL NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT TIME IT KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NV.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN BE MADE ON FROPA TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  65  90  61  86 /  30  30  30  30  20
TULIA         96  67  92  64  89 /  30  30  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     94  67  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     93  66  90  63  87 /  30  30  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       94  69  94  67  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  66  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  67  92  65  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     99  74  98  70  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          97  68  95  66  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  73  98  69  97 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05






000
FXUS64 KLUB 211128
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
DEEP MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES JUST WEST OF KLBB TODAY...WHILE KCDS
WILL BE ENOUGH EAST TO REMAIN DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. BULK OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB BUT DISAGREE ON MOVEMENT INTO THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT
OF KLBB FOR NOW. HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN BLOCKING LOWER LEVEL
SATELLITE VIEWS ARE NOW THINNING ENOUGH TO GIVE AT LEAST PARTIAL
VIEW NEAR THE GROUND...NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF KCDS OR
SOUTHEAST OF KLBB THIS MORNING THOUGH STILL WATCHING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS ALSO IS WITHIN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE
AS WELL AS A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH. DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
THIS MORNING. A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS POTENTIALLY COULD FACTOR IN LATER
TODAY. BUT IF ANYTHING...FLOW SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY FAVORING LESS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN ZONES. SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
GENERATING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
ZONES VERY SIMILAR TO OUR GOING FORECAST. WITHOUT CONVINCING
ARGUMENT TO FAVOR EITHER A DRY OR WET FORECAST TODAY...WE WILL
RETAIN THE GIST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TILTING BEST CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE MODEL FAVORED AREAS. EDGED TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS UP
A HALF-NOTCH IN LINE WITH TRENDS AND CLOSER TO YESTERDAYS MAXIMUMS.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN MODERATELY BREEZY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PEAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING TREND BY LATE EVENING...
ALSO FAVORING CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A FEW STORMS MAY
EXTEND JUST PAST MIDNIGHT SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD NEAR THE STATE LINE AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
PRECIP PUSH. THE GFS/NAM KEEP A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROF ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE CO-LOCATED WITH
FORCING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY PRETTY CONFINED TO THIS AREA AS STEERING
FLOW IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND IS FAIRLY WEAK. SOME STORMS MAY
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THAT SCENARIO IS
UNKNOWN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FROM THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
WESTWARD WHILE CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
HAVE LOST SOME OF ITS ENERGY AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. WHILE WEAKER...THE
SHORTWAVE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONVECT ALONG A SURFACE TROF
REMAINING FROM FRIDAY. WITH THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO COVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY BUT WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE RELAXED AS WE ARE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHILE CONTINUING TO
TAP MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS FUZZY BUT SOMEWHAT
DISCERNIBLE. THE GFS BRINGS A DEEPER TROF EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
PLAINS KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE TROF IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY AS RIDGING SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF GOES BY THE
PHILOSOPHY THAT SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE AND PROLONGS THE FROPA
TILL NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT TIME IT KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NV.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN BE MADE ON FROPA TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  65  90  61  86 /  30  30  30  30  20
TULIA         96  67  92  64  89 /  30  30  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     94  67  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     93  66  90  63  87 /  30  30  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       94  69  94  67  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  66  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  67  92  65  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     99  74  98  70  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          97  68  95  66  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  73  98  69  97 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05






000
FXUS64 KAMA 211127
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TODAY TO
THE EAST OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 25
KTS AT KAMA AND KGUY...WHILE STAYING A LITTLE LIGHTER AT KDHT CLOSER
TO THE TROUGH AXIS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE CONFINED VCTS MENTION TO KAMA FOR NOW...WHERE
CHANCES APPEAR A LITTLE BETTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  LOW THUNDERSTORM
POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OWING TO
PERSISTENCE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND DIURNAL INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AXES.  MODERATE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CAPPING ISSUES.  IN FACT...MODELS PREDICT
COOLING OF SAME IN LATER PERIODS.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE SPREAD POPS EASTWARD...DUE TO EXPECTED
SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVERSING MOISTURE PLUME.  FRIDAY EVENING POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS AS ANOTHER EXPECTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES.

ON SATURDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST THREE-FOURTHS OF FORECAST AREA...AS MODELS AGREE THAT MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA SHOULD PASS OVER INSTABILITY AXIS.   FOR THE
EVENING...LOW POPS HAVE BEEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AS DYNAMICS
PASS.

FOR SUNDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS.
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS HAVE BEEN REALIGNED...WITH HIGHER POPS NOW IN
NORTHEAST SECTIONS...WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED AS 500 MB COLD POOL ARRIVES.

NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.  00Z GFS BRINGS COLD FRONT INTO
PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO EARLIER ECMWF RUN.  HAVE
ACCEPTED THIS SCENARIO...WITH WIND SHIFT AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 211127
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TODAY TO
THE EAST OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 25
KTS AT KAMA AND KGUY...WHILE STAYING A LITTLE LIGHTER AT KDHT CLOSER
TO THE TROUGH AXIS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE CONFINED VCTS MENTION TO KAMA FOR NOW...WHERE
CHANCES APPEAR A LITTLE BETTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  LOW THUNDERSTORM
POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OWING TO
PERSISTENCE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND DIURNAL INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AXES.  MODERATE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CAPPING ISSUES.  IN FACT...MODELS PREDICT
COOLING OF SAME IN LATER PERIODS.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE SPREAD POPS EASTWARD...DUE TO EXPECTED
SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVERSING MOISTURE PLUME.  FRIDAY EVENING POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS AS ANOTHER EXPECTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES.

ON SATURDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST THREE-FOURTHS OF FORECAST AREA...AS MODELS AGREE THAT MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA SHOULD PASS OVER INSTABILITY AXIS.   FOR THE
EVENING...LOW POPS HAVE BEEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AS DYNAMICS
PASS.

FOR SUNDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS.
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS HAVE BEEN REALIGNED...WITH HIGHER POPS NOW IN
NORTHEAST SECTIONS...WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED AS 500 MB COLD POOL ARRIVES.

NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.  00Z GFS BRINGS COLD FRONT INTO
PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO EARLIER ECMWF RUN.  HAVE
ACCEPTED THIS SCENARIO...WITH WIND SHIFT AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 211127
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TODAY TO
THE EAST OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 25
KTS AT KAMA AND KGUY...WHILE STAYING A LITTLE LIGHTER AT KDHT CLOSER
TO THE TROUGH AXIS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE CONFINED VCTS MENTION TO KAMA FOR NOW...WHERE
CHANCES APPEAR A LITTLE BETTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  LOW THUNDERSTORM
POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OWING TO
PERSISTENCE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND DIURNAL INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AXES.  MODERATE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CAPPING ISSUES.  IN FACT...MODELS PREDICT
COOLING OF SAME IN LATER PERIODS.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE SPREAD POPS EASTWARD...DUE TO EXPECTED
SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVERSING MOISTURE PLUME.  FRIDAY EVENING POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS AS ANOTHER EXPECTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES.

ON SATURDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST THREE-FOURTHS OF FORECAST AREA...AS MODELS AGREE THAT MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA SHOULD PASS OVER INSTABILITY AXIS.   FOR THE
EVENING...LOW POPS HAVE BEEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AS DYNAMICS
PASS.

FOR SUNDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS.
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS HAVE BEEN REALIGNED...WITH HIGHER POPS NOW IN
NORTHEAST SECTIONS...WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED AS 500 MB COLD POOL ARRIVES.

NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.  00Z GFS BRINGS COLD FRONT INTO
PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO EARLIER ECMWF RUN.  HAVE
ACCEPTED THIS SCENARIO...WITH WIND SHIFT AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/03






000
FXUS64 KAMA 211127
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN TODAY TO
THE EAST OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 25
KTS AT KAMA AND KGUY...WHILE STAYING A LITTLE LIGHTER AT KDHT CLOSER
TO THE TROUGH AXIS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE CONFINED VCTS MENTION TO KAMA FOR NOW...WHERE
CHANCES APPEAR A LITTLE BETTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  LOW THUNDERSTORM
POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OWING TO
PERSISTENCE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND DIURNAL INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AXES.  MODERATE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CAPPING ISSUES.  IN FACT...MODELS PREDICT
COOLING OF SAME IN LATER PERIODS.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE SPREAD POPS EASTWARD...DUE TO EXPECTED
SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVERSING MOISTURE PLUME.  FRIDAY EVENING POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS AS ANOTHER EXPECTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES.

ON SATURDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST THREE-FOURTHS OF FORECAST AREA...AS MODELS AGREE THAT MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA SHOULD PASS OVER INSTABILITY AXIS.   FOR THE
EVENING...LOW POPS HAVE BEEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AS DYNAMICS
PASS.

FOR SUNDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS.
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS HAVE BEEN REALIGNED...WITH HIGHER POPS NOW IN
NORTHEAST SECTIONS...WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED AS 500 MB COLD POOL ARRIVES.

NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.  00Z GFS BRINGS COLD FRONT INTO
PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO EARLIER ECMWF RUN.  HAVE
ACCEPTED THIS SCENARIO...WITH WIND SHIFT AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/03






000
FXUS64 KEWX 211126
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
THE I-35 TAF SITES HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING DUE TO PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
THE STATUS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH 15Z CAUSING PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS. DEL RIO COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS...SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 13 TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRATUS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUILDING OVER THE I-35 TERMINALS
BETWEEN 07Z/08Z AND AT DRT AROUND 11Z FRIDAY MORNING THEN BURNING
OFF BY 16Z.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH
(AUS/SAT/SSF) AND SOUTHEAST (DRT). THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WE COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. WINDS WEAKEN TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM STORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY PROGRESS NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE HOT AND DRY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF ACTIVITY IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING HIGH MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IS THEREFORE DRYING
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PERSISTENT...AROUND THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF PRECIP COULD
BE A BIT SOONER THAN THAT DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR
NOW. JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT PACKAGE...THE GFS IS FORECASTING A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS THURSDAY/FRIDAY BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OF THE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN SO IT DOES BEAR
WATCHING.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  77  99  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  75  99  73  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  74 100  72  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  74  96  73  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77  99  75  97 /  10   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  78  97  74  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  98  72  97 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  76  99  73  97 /  -   -    0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  78  99  76  99 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  79  99  76  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  77 100  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29






000
FXUS64 KEWX 211126
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
THE I-35 TAF SITES HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING DUE TO PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
THE STATUS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH 15Z CAUSING PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS. DEL RIO COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS...SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 13 TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRATUS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUILDING OVER THE I-35 TERMINALS
BETWEEN 07Z/08Z AND AT DRT AROUND 11Z FRIDAY MORNING THEN BURNING
OFF BY 16Z.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH
(AUS/SAT/SSF) AND SOUTHEAST (DRT). THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WE COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. WINDS WEAKEN TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM STORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY PROGRESS NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE HOT AND DRY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF ACTIVITY IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING HIGH MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IS THEREFORE DRYING
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PERSISTENT...AROUND THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF PRECIP COULD
BE A BIT SOONER THAN THAT DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR
NOW. JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT PACKAGE...THE GFS IS FORECASTING A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS THURSDAY/FRIDAY BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OF THE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN SO IT DOES BEAR
WATCHING.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  77  99  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  75  99  73  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  74 100  72  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  74  96  73  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77  99  75  97 /  10   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  78  97  74  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  98  72  97 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  76  99  73  97 /  -   -    0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  78  99  76  99 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  79  99  76  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  77 100  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29






000
FXUS64 KEWX 211126
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
THE I-35 TAF SITES HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING DUE TO PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
THE STATUS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH 15Z CAUSING PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS. DEL RIO COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS...SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 13 TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRATUS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUILDING OVER THE I-35 TERMINALS
BETWEEN 07Z/08Z AND AT DRT AROUND 11Z FRIDAY MORNING THEN BURNING
OFF BY 16Z.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH
(AUS/SAT/SSF) AND SOUTHEAST (DRT). THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WE COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. WINDS WEAKEN TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM STORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY PROGRESS NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE HOT AND DRY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF ACTIVITY IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING HIGH MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IS THEREFORE DRYING
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PERSISTENT...AROUND THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF PRECIP COULD
BE A BIT SOONER THAN THAT DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR
NOW. JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT PACKAGE...THE GFS IS FORECASTING A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS THURSDAY/FRIDAY BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OF THE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN SO IT DOES BEAR
WATCHING.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  77  99  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  75  99  73  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  74 100  72  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  74  96  73  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77  99  75  97 /  10   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  78  97  74  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  98  72  97 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  76  99  73  97 /  -   -    0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  78  99  76  99 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  79  99  76  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  77 100  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29






000
FXUS64 KEWX 211126
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
THE I-35 TAF SITES HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THIS
MORNING DUE TO PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT
THE STATUS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH 15Z CAUSING PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS. DEL RIO COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS...SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO MORNINGS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO
CARRY THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 13 TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. STRATUS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUILDING OVER THE I-35 TERMINALS
BETWEEN 07Z/08Z AND AT DRT AROUND 11Z FRIDAY MORNING THEN BURNING
OFF BY 16Z.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH
(AUS/SAT/SSF) AND SOUTHEAST (DRT). THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WE COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. WINDS WEAKEN TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

TREADWAY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM STORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY PROGRESS NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE HOT AND DRY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF ACTIVITY IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING HIGH MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IS THEREFORE DRYING
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PERSISTENT...AROUND THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF PRECIP COULD
BE A BIT SOONER THAN THAT DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR
NOW. JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT PACKAGE...THE GFS IS FORECASTING A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS THURSDAY/FRIDAY BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OF THE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN SO IT DOES BEAR
WATCHING.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  77  99  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  75  99  73  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  74 100  72  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  74  96  73  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77  99  75  97 /  10   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  78  97  74  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  98  72  97 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  76  99  73  97 /  -   -    0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  78  99  76  99 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  79  99  76  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  77 100  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29






000
FXUS64 KHGX 211112
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
612 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREV TAF PACKAGE. FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRIER CONDS WITH PW VALUES DROPPING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES.
RAP/HRRR KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST TODAY AS WELL. MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CIGS MIXING OUT
BETWEEN 14-16Z. SHOULD GET SOME MVFR CIGS AGAIN OVER THE NW TAF
SITES AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE NOW INDICATING LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO FORM
TONIGHT. THESE WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE FAR LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. AT 250 MB BEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THANKS TO A BUILDING RIDGE. THE RAP PERFORMED
PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY AND SHOWS ALMOST NO RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
EXCEPT FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO IN SAN JACINTO AND LIBERTY
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF ALSO SHOWS THIS.
GIVEN THE EVIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL MAPS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS
MAKES SENSE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND POSITION ITSELF
NEAR THE ARKANSAS/ LOUISIANA BORDER ON FRIDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW RELATIVELY
LOW PWAT AIR IN PLACE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A CAP IN PLACE AT
850MB. ON MONDAY THE CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. 23

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
RELAX BY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  77  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43



000
FXUS64 KHGX 211112
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
612 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREV TAF PACKAGE. FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRIER CONDS WITH PW VALUES DROPPING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES.
RAP/HRRR KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP TO THE EAST TODAY AS WELL. MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CIGS MIXING OUT
BETWEEN 14-16Z. SHOULD GET SOME MVFR CIGS AGAIN OVER THE NW TAF
SITES AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE NOW INDICATING LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO FORM
TONIGHT. THESE WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE FAR LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. AT 250 MB BEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THANKS TO A BUILDING RIDGE. THE RAP PERFORMED
PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY AND SHOWS ALMOST NO RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
EXCEPT FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO IN SAN JACINTO AND LIBERTY
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF ALSO SHOWS THIS.
GIVEN THE EVIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL MAPS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS
MAKES SENSE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND POSITION ITSELF
NEAR THE ARKANSAS/ LOUISIANA BORDER ON FRIDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW RELATIVELY
LOW PWAT AIR IN PLACE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A CAP IN PLACE AT
850MB. ON MONDAY THE CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. 23

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
RELAX BY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  77  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KFWD 211042 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE CLIMATE SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
REMARKABLY STOUT LLJ FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (35-40KTS) HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT THIN) STRATUS ALONG THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. A FIBROUS DECK HAS INVADED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A FEW FRAGMENTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER DAYBREAK. AS THESE STRONG WINDS MIX WITH THE
SURFACE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING...WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN.
SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES...BUT THE WIND WILL HELP TAKE AN EDGE OFF THE
HEAT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...EXPECT
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TAKING A SHARP LEFT TURN INTO THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD FARTHER WEST THE PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEATLY STACKED VERTICALLY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM 10KFT ABOVE MSL TO AROUND 35KFT...WHICH WILL
ASSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ITS
INTENSITY IS STILL RATHER ORDINARY FOR AUGUST...AND ITS PLACEMENT
EAST OF TEXAS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL HEATING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER. THIS WILL REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FROM
WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...MEANING THAT ACHIEVING TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT. A NIGHTLY LLJ WILL
MEAN REPEATED STRATUS INTRUSIONS...PRIMARILY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL DO LITTLE TO
PREVENT HOT AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 100 BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105.

A PIECE OF UPPER VORTICITY IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE
TUTT SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH IT WILL
GUIDE IT NORTHWARD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE POLAR JET WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHEAR IT...BUT THE TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THE
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND SHOULD BE UNABLE TO
DISRUPT THE DEEP SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT.

AS THE UPPER LOW ENTERS CANADA...THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF
THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL MEAN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE MORNING
STRATUS AND WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE OPPRESSIVE...
BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW AND THE GFS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS IN THAT IT KEEPS THE FLOW UNIMPEDED. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE CONSENSUS FAVORS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED NORTH WINDS AND
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE WILL NOT
APPEAR IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...
LATE AUGUST FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE REMARKABLY COMMON. ALTHOUGH NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES (BASED ON DFW DATA 1981-2010) GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER AUGUST 17 AT A STEADY RATE...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TELL A
DIFFERENT STORY.

DAILY NORMALS ARE CREATED USING A HARMONIC FIT...A METHOD EMPLOYED
TO DAMPEN OUTLIERS. THE RESULT ASSURES A SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM ONE
DAY TO THE NEXT...BUT THIS SMOOTHING REMOVES INTRICACIES IN THE DATA
THAT CAN REVEAL MORE ABRUPT SEASONAL TRANSITIONS. FOR EXAMPLE...MUCH
OF THE DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING LATE AUGUST OCCURS IN A
2-DAY SPAN BETWEEN AUGUST 26 AND 28.

THE DATA BELOW ARE BASED ON THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE RECORD
1981-2010.

               AVERAGE       NORMAL
             HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

AUGUST 26    97.4 / 75.4     95 / 74
AUGUST 28    93.5 / 73.4     94 / 74

THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE (1981-2010) ACTUALLY INCREASES BETWEEN
AUGUST 17 AND 26. THE SUDDEN 3.9-DEGREE DROP IN JUST 2 DAYS (AUGUST
26-28) IS THUS VERY SIGNIFICANT.

THESE ARE NOT SIMPLY ARTIFACTS OF A 30-YEAR DATA SET. USING THE
ENTIRE CLIMATE RECORD (WHICH BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER 1898) YIELDS A
DECREASE IN THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN AUGUST 17 AND 26
(1.2 DEGREES) THAT IS STILL LESS THAN THE 2-DAY SPAN AUGUST 26-28
(1.4 DEGREES). AND YES...WHEN INCORPORATING THE ENTIRE CLIMATE
RECORD OF MORE THAN A CENTURY OF DATA...THE TIME FRAME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT DROP REMAINS AUGUST 26-28.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

IT MEANS THAT HISTORICAL FRONTAL PASSAGES CLUSTER AROUND THESE
DATES...SHOWING A TENDENCY FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LATE SUMMER
FRONT TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE 2014 MAY FOLLOW SUIT. THE
GFS PROJECTS A FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEK ON AUGUST 28.

DOES THIS MEAN FALL HAS ARRIVED?

NOT QUITE YET...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 90S EVEN
IF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. NORMAL (AND AVERAGE) HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL IN THE 90S IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OCCURS AROUND THE
AUTUMNAL EQUINOX...WHICH IS ONLY A MONTH AWAY. (THE BELOW ARE BASED
ON DFW DATA 1981-2010.)

                  AVERAGE       NORMAL
                HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

SEPTEMBER 20    88.1 / 65.8     87 / 66
SEPTEMBER 24    83.1 / 62.6     85 / 64

PERHAPS THERE IS SOMETHING TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES
AND WILL RESULT IN HIGHS BETWEEN THE MID 90S AND 102 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM BECOMING
TOO STRONG. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS FOR A HIGH FIRE DANGER...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE...DECATUR...COMANCHE LINE. FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT BOTH POSSUM KINGDOM RESERVOIR AND MILLER/S CREEK RAWS
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW 10...INDICATING SOME DRYING OF
FINE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST MAY SEE OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS BUT WILL ALSO SEE RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO MID TO UPPER 90S. THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE THIS EVENING
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT WILL ARRIVE AT
KACT AROUND 12-13Z. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ALSO BRINGS THE STRATUS
INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 14Z WITH BASES BETWEEN 2-3 KFT...HOWEVER
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STRATUS TO THE EAST OF THE
METROPLEX. WILL KEEP THE MVFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. THE
STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER AROUND 16-17Z WITH VFR
PREVAILING THE REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN
10-17 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25
KTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  78  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         98  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  76  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25






000
FXUS64 KFWD 211042 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE CLIMATE SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
REMARKABLY STOUT LLJ FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (35-40KTS) HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT THIN) STRATUS ALONG THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. A FIBROUS DECK HAS INVADED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A FEW FRAGMENTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER DAYBREAK. AS THESE STRONG WINDS MIX WITH THE
SURFACE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING...WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN.
SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES...BUT THE WIND WILL HELP TAKE AN EDGE OFF THE
HEAT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...EXPECT
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TAKING A SHARP LEFT TURN INTO THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD FARTHER WEST THE PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEATLY STACKED VERTICALLY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM 10KFT ABOVE MSL TO AROUND 35KFT...WHICH WILL
ASSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ITS
INTENSITY IS STILL RATHER ORDINARY FOR AUGUST...AND ITS PLACEMENT
EAST OF TEXAS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL HEATING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER. THIS WILL REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FROM
WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...MEANING THAT ACHIEVING TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT. A NIGHTLY LLJ WILL
MEAN REPEATED STRATUS INTRUSIONS...PRIMARILY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL DO LITTLE TO
PREVENT HOT AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 100 BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105.

A PIECE OF UPPER VORTICITY IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE
TUTT SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH IT WILL
GUIDE IT NORTHWARD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE POLAR JET WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHEAR IT...BUT THE TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THE
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND SHOULD BE UNABLE TO
DISRUPT THE DEEP SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT.

AS THE UPPER LOW ENTERS CANADA...THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF
THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL MEAN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE MORNING
STRATUS AND WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE OPPRESSIVE...
BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW AND THE GFS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS IN THAT IT KEEPS THE FLOW UNIMPEDED. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE CONSENSUS FAVORS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED NORTH WINDS AND
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE WILL NOT
APPEAR IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...
LATE AUGUST FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE REMARKABLY COMMON. ALTHOUGH NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES (BASED ON DFW DATA 1981-2010) GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER AUGUST 17 AT A STEADY RATE...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TELL A
DIFFERENT STORY.

DAILY NORMALS ARE CREATED USING A HARMONIC FIT...A METHOD EMPLOYED
TO DAMPEN OUTLIERS. THE RESULT ASSURES A SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM ONE
DAY TO THE NEXT...BUT THIS SMOOTHING REMOVES INTRICACIES IN THE DATA
THAT CAN REVEAL MORE ABRUPT SEASONAL TRANSITIONS. FOR EXAMPLE...MUCH
OF THE DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING LATE AUGUST OCCURS IN A
2-DAY SPAN BETWEEN AUGUST 26 AND 28.

THE DATA BELOW ARE BASED ON THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE RECORD
1981-2010.

               AVERAGE       NORMAL
             HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

AUGUST 26    97.4 / 75.4     95 / 74
AUGUST 28    93.5 / 73.4     94 / 74

THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE (1981-2010) ACTUALLY INCREASES BETWEEN
AUGUST 17 AND 26. THE SUDDEN 3.9-DEGREE DROP IN JUST 2 DAYS (AUGUST
26-28) IS THUS VERY SIGNIFICANT.

THESE ARE NOT SIMPLY ARTIFACTS OF A 30-YEAR DATA SET. USING THE
ENTIRE CLIMATE RECORD (WHICH BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER 1898) YIELDS A
DECREASE IN THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN AUGUST 17 AND 26
(1.2 DEGREES) THAT IS STILL LESS THAN THE 2-DAY SPAN AUGUST 26-28
(1.4 DEGREES). AND YES...WHEN INCORPORATING THE ENTIRE CLIMATE
RECORD OF MORE THAN A CENTURY OF DATA...THE TIME FRAME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT DROP REMAINS AUGUST 26-28.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

IT MEANS THAT HISTORICAL FRONTAL PASSAGES CLUSTER AROUND THESE
DATES...SHOWING A TENDENCY FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LATE SUMMER
FRONT TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE 2014 MAY FOLLOW SUIT. THE
GFS PROJECTS A FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEK ON AUGUST 28.

DOES THIS MEAN FALL HAS ARRIVED?

NOT QUITE YET...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 90S EVEN
IF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. NORMAL (AND AVERAGE) HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL IN THE 90S IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OCCURS AROUND THE
AUTUMNAL EQUINOX...WHICH IS ONLY A MONTH AWAY. (THE BELOW ARE BASED
ON DFW DATA 1981-2010.)

                  AVERAGE       NORMAL
                HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

SEPTEMBER 20    88.1 / 65.8     87 / 66
SEPTEMBER 24    83.1 / 62.6     85 / 64

PERHAPS THERE IS SOMETHING TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES
AND WILL RESULT IN HIGHS BETWEEN THE MID 90S AND 102 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM BECOMING
TOO STRONG. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS FOR A HIGH FIRE DANGER...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE...DECATUR...COMANCHE LINE. FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT BOTH POSSUM KINGDOM RESERVOIR AND MILLER/S CREEK RAWS
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW 10...INDICATING SOME DRYING OF
FINE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST MAY SEE OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS BUT WILL ALSO SEE RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO MID TO UPPER 90S. THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE THIS EVENING
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT WILL ARRIVE AT
KACT AROUND 12-13Z. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ALSO BRINGS THE STRATUS
INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 14Z WITH BASES BETWEEN 2-3 KFT...HOWEVER
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STRATUS TO THE EAST OF THE
METROPLEX. WILL KEEP THE MVFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. THE
STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER AROUND 16-17Z WITH VFR
PREVAILING THE REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN
10-17 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25
KTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  78  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         98  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  76  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25






000
FXUS64 KFWD 211042 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE CLIMATE SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
REMARKABLY STOUT LLJ FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (35-40KTS) HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT THIN) STRATUS ALONG THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. A FIBROUS DECK HAS INVADED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A FEW FRAGMENTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER DAYBREAK. AS THESE STRONG WINDS MIX WITH THE
SURFACE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING...WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN.
SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES...BUT THE WIND WILL HELP TAKE AN EDGE OFF THE
HEAT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...EXPECT
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TAKING A SHARP LEFT TURN INTO THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD FARTHER WEST THE PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEATLY STACKED VERTICALLY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM 10KFT ABOVE MSL TO AROUND 35KFT...WHICH WILL
ASSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ITS
INTENSITY IS STILL RATHER ORDINARY FOR AUGUST...AND ITS PLACEMENT
EAST OF TEXAS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL HEATING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER. THIS WILL REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FROM
WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...MEANING THAT ACHIEVING TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT. A NIGHTLY LLJ WILL
MEAN REPEATED STRATUS INTRUSIONS...PRIMARILY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL DO LITTLE TO
PREVENT HOT AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 100 BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105.

A PIECE OF UPPER VORTICITY IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE
TUTT SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH IT WILL
GUIDE IT NORTHWARD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE POLAR JET WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHEAR IT...BUT THE TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THE
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND SHOULD BE UNABLE TO
DISRUPT THE DEEP SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT.

AS THE UPPER LOW ENTERS CANADA...THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF
THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL MEAN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE MORNING
STRATUS AND WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE OPPRESSIVE...
BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW AND THE GFS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS IN THAT IT KEEPS THE FLOW UNIMPEDED. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE CONSENSUS FAVORS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED NORTH WINDS AND
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE WILL NOT
APPEAR IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...
LATE AUGUST FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE REMARKABLY COMMON. ALTHOUGH NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES (BASED ON DFW DATA 1981-2010) GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER AUGUST 17 AT A STEADY RATE...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TELL A
DIFFERENT STORY.

DAILY NORMALS ARE CREATED USING A HARMONIC FIT...A METHOD EMPLOYED
TO DAMPEN OUTLIERS. THE RESULT ASSURES A SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM ONE
DAY TO THE NEXT...BUT THIS SMOOTHING REMOVES INTRICACIES IN THE DATA
THAT CAN REVEAL MORE ABRUPT SEASONAL TRANSITIONS. FOR EXAMPLE...MUCH
OF THE DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING LATE AUGUST OCCURS IN A
2-DAY SPAN BETWEEN AUGUST 26 AND 28.

THE DATA BELOW ARE BASED ON THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE RECORD
1981-2010.

               AVERAGE       NORMAL
             HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

AUGUST 26    97.4 / 75.4     95 / 74
AUGUST 28    93.5 / 73.4     94 / 74

THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE (1981-2010) ACTUALLY INCREASES BETWEEN
AUGUST 17 AND 26. THE SUDDEN 3.9-DEGREE DROP IN JUST 2 DAYS (AUGUST
26-28) IS THUS VERY SIGNIFICANT.

THESE ARE NOT SIMPLY ARTIFACTS OF A 30-YEAR DATA SET. USING THE
ENTIRE CLIMATE RECORD (WHICH BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER 1898) YIELDS A
DECREASE IN THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN AUGUST 17 AND 26
(1.2 DEGREES) THAT IS STILL LESS THAN THE 2-DAY SPAN AUGUST 26-28
(1.4 DEGREES). AND YES...WHEN INCORPORATING THE ENTIRE CLIMATE
RECORD OF MORE THAN A CENTURY OF DATA...THE TIME FRAME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT DROP REMAINS AUGUST 26-28.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

IT MEANS THAT HISTORICAL FRONTAL PASSAGES CLUSTER AROUND THESE
DATES...SHOWING A TENDENCY FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LATE SUMMER
FRONT TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE 2014 MAY FOLLOW SUIT. THE
GFS PROJECTS A FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEK ON AUGUST 28.

DOES THIS MEAN FALL HAS ARRIVED?

NOT QUITE YET...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 90S EVEN
IF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. NORMAL (AND AVERAGE) HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL IN THE 90S IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OCCURS AROUND THE
AUTUMNAL EQUINOX...WHICH IS ONLY A MONTH AWAY. (THE BELOW ARE BASED
ON DFW DATA 1981-2010.)

                  AVERAGE       NORMAL
                HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

SEPTEMBER 20    88.1 / 65.8     87 / 66
SEPTEMBER 24    83.1 / 62.6     85 / 64

PERHAPS THERE IS SOMETHING TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES
AND WILL RESULT IN HIGHS BETWEEN THE MID 90S AND 102 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM BECOMING
TOO STRONG. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS FOR A HIGH FIRE DANGER...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE...DECATUR...COMANCHE LINE. FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT BOTH POSSUM KINGDOM RESERVOIR AND MILLER/S CREEK RAWS
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW 10...INDICATING SOME DRYING OF
FINE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST MAY SEE OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS BUT WILL ALSO SEE RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO MID TO UPPER 90S. THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE THIS EVENING
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT WILL ARRIVE AT
KACT AROUND 12-13Z. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ALSO BRINGS THE STRATUS
INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 14Z WITH BASES BETWEEN 2-3 KFT...HOWEVER
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STRATUS TO THE EAST OF THE
METROPLEX. WILL KEEP THE MVFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. THE
STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER AROUND 16-17Z WITH VFR
PREVAILING THE REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN
10-17 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25
KTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  78  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         98  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  76  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25






000
FXUS64 KFWD 211042 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE CLIMATE SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
REMARKABLY STOUT LLJ FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (35-40KTS) HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT THIN) STRATUS ALONG THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. A FIBROUS DECK HAS INVADED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A FEW FRAGMENTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER DAYBREAK. AS THESE STRONG WINDS MIX WITH THE
SURFACE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING...WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN.
SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES...BUT THE WIND WILL HELP TAKE AN EDGE OFF THE
HEAT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...EXPECT
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TAKING A SHARP LEFT TURN INTO THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD FARTHER WEST THE PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEATLY STACKED VERTICALLY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM 10KFT ABOVE MSL TO AROUND 35KFT...WHICH WILL
ASSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ITS
INTENSITY IS STILL RATHER ORDINARY FOR AUGUST...AND ITS PLACEMENT
EAST OF TEXAS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL HEATING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER. THIS WILL REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FROM
WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...MEANING THAT ACHIEVING TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT. A NIGHTLY LLJ WILL
MEAN REPEATED STRATUS INTRUSIONS...PRIMARILY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL DO LITTLE TO
PREVENT HOT AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 100 BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105.

A PIECE OF UPPER VORTICITY IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE
TUTT SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH IT WILL
GUIDE IT NORTHWARD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE POLAR JET WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHEAR IT...BUT THE TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THE
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND SHOULD BE UNABLE TO
DISRUPT THE DEEP SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT.

AS THE UPPER LOW ENTERS CANADA...THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF
THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL MEAN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE MORNING
STRATUS AND WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE OPPRESSIVE...
BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW AND THE GFS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS IN THAT IT KEEPS THE FLOW UNIMPEDED. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE CONSENSUS FAVORS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED NORTH WINDS AND
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE WILL NOT
APPEAR IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.

25

&&

.CLIMATE...
LATE AUGUST FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE REMARKABLY COMMON. ALTHOUGH NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES (BASED ON DFW DATA 1981-2010) GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER AUGUST 17 AT A STEADY RATE...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TELL A
DIFFERENT STORY.

DAILY NORMALS ARE CREATED USING A HARMONIC FIT...A METHOD EMPLOYED
TO DAMPEN OUTLIERS. THE RESULT ASSURES A SMOOTH TRANSITION FROM ONE
DAY TO THE NEXT...BUT THIS SMOOTHING REMOVES INTRICACIES IN THE DATA
THAT CAN REVEAL MORE ABRUPT SEASONAL TRANSITIONS. FOR EXAMPLE...MUCH
OF THE DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING LATE AUGUST OCCURS IN A
2-DAY SPAN BETWEEN AUGUST 26 AND 28.

THE DATA BELOW ARE BASED ON THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH CLIMATE RECORD
1981-2010.

               AVERAGE       NORMAL
             HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

AUGUST 26    97.4 / 75.4     95 / 74
AUGUST 28    93.5 / 73.4     94 / 74

THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE (1981-2010) ACTUALLY INCREASES BETWEEN
AUGUST 17 AND 26. THE SUDDEN 3.9-DEGREE DROP IN JUST 2 DAYS (AUGUST
26-28) IS THUS VERY SIGNIFICANT.

THESE ARE NOT SIMPLY ARTIFACTS OF A 30-YEAR DATA SET. USING THE
ENTIRE CLIMATE RECORD (WHICH BEGAN IN SEPTEMBER 1898) YIELDS A
DECREASE IN THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE BETWEEN AUGUST 17 AND 26
(1.2 DEGREES) THAT IS STILL LESS THAN THE 2-DAY SPAN AUGUST 26-28
(1.4 DEGREES). AND YES...WHEN INCORPORATING THE ENTIRE CLIMATE
RECORD OF MORE THAN A CENTURY OF DATA...THE TIME FRAME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT DROP REMAINS AUGUST 26-28.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

IT MEANS THAT HISTORICAL FRONTAL PASSAGES CLUSTER AROUND THESE
DATES...SHOWING A TENDENCY FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LATE SUMMER
FRONT TO OCCUR AT THIS TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE 2014 MAY FOLLOW SUIT. THE
GFS PROJECTS A FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEK ON AUGUST 28.

DOES THIS MEAN FALL HAS ARRIVED?

NOT QUITE YET...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 90S EVEN
IF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. NORMAL (AND AVERAGE) HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL IN THE 90S IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT DROP IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OCCURS AROUND THE
AUTUMNAL EQUINOX...WHICH IS ONLY A MONTH AWAY. (THE BELOW ARE BASED
ON DFW DATA 1981-2010.)

                  AVERAGE       NORMAL
                HIGH / LOW    HIGH / LOW

SEPTEMBER 20    88.1 / 65.8     87 / 66
SEPTEMBER 24    83.1 / 62.6     85 / 64

PERHAPS THERE IS SOMETHING TO THE FIRST DAY OF FALL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES
AND WILL RESULT IN HIGHS BETWEEN THE MID 90S AND 102 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM BECOMING
TOO STRONG. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS FOR A HIGH FIRE DANGER...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE...DECATUR...COMANCHE LINE. FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT BOTH POSSUM KINGDOM RESERVOIR AND MILLER/S CREEK RAWS
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW 10...INDICATING SOME DRYING OF
FINE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST MAY SEE OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS BUT WILL ALSO SEE RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO MID TO UPPER 90S. THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE THIS EVENING
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT WILL ARRIVE AT
KACT AROUND 12-13Z. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ALSO BRINGS THE STRATUS
INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 14Z WITH BASES BETWEEN 2-3 KFT...HOWEVER
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STRATUS TO THE EAST OF THE
METROPLEX. WILL KEEP THE MVFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. THE
STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER AROUND 16-17Z WITH VFR
PREVAILING THE REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN
10-17 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25
KTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  78  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         98  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  76  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211036
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
435 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE DRYING OUT ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AS THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW MOVES TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT AND BRING UP A NEW ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.
EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS ARE
BOUND TO BE HEAVY AND COULD PRODUCE SOME FLOODING. THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL STICK AROUND ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OR ENDING THE SHOWERS FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE MODELS HINTED AT A TEMPORARY DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY AND THE
DAY TURNED OUT PROBABLY EVEN DRIER THAN THE MODELS DEPICTED. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED OUT ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE PLAINS
TOOK A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME REMAINED
OVER THE CWA BUT BECAME QUITE DIFFUSE AND THINNER. PW`S OF
1.20"-1.40" ON TUESDAY DIMINISHED TO AROUND .75"-.90" THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PW`S REMAIN ALL AROUND THE
AREA. MODELS ALL SIMILAR IN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN WEST COAST UPPER LOW MOVES TO SW ARIZONA AND
INCREASES THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. EXPECT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY OVER MOUNTAINS AS MODELS ONLY
SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MOISTURE STILL ON THE SLOW INCREASE.
MAXIMUM MOISTURE OCCURS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE NICELY IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS ABUNDANT
OVERNIGHT MOISTURE COULD CLOUD THE CWA IN WITH A THICK OVERCAST FOR
FRIDAY. PROGGED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S AND
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT. FOR NOW WILL STILL PLAY POPS AS IF
SOME SUNSHINE AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING OCCUR.

UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO TROUGH FRIDAY OVER NEW MEXICO AND MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA MID DAY SATURDAY WITH RAPID DRYING OUT BEHIND THE
TROUGH. LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN FOR THE EAST EARLY ON BUT TROUGH
PASSAGE MAY WELL KILL ALMOST ALL CONVECTION FOR THE DAY. NEXT SHIFT
CAN TRIM BACK POPS IF NEEDED. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME RECOVERY OF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN STORMS
AND THE ISOLATED STORMS ALL AREAS DURING THE EVENINGS.

UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS SOME AND DRIFTS NORTH OVER CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING WEST OF THE BAJA.
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL TURN UPPER FLOW MOVE NORTHWEST AND
PUSH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR IN. THIS MAY LIMIT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
JUST THE MOUNTAINS. GFS STILL TRYING TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT IN ON
THURSDAY SO THIS COULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. DVLPG AFT 18Z OVER
MOUNTAINS...SCT-BKN120 WITH SCATTERED -TSRA BKN100CB TOPS 420 WITH
ISOLATED 1-3SM +TSRA CIGS AOB 030. STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LOWLANDS AFT 22Z...WITH STORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW MOVING TO SW ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN
BRINGING IN MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS TONIGHT AS HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS ARE REACHED. SOME FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN FIRE ZONES. UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BEGIN SATURDAY BUT
THEN TAPER OFF WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS A BIT DRIER THAN RECENTLY BUT
STILL ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO FUEL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL COOL TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

MIN RH`S WILL RUN ABOUT 25-35% OVER THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT BRIEFLY 35-45% FRIDAY. FOR THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT
35-45% THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR 45-55% FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 93  72  83  68  89 /  10  40  40  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           87  67  77  66  87 /  10  40  40  40  30
LAS CRUCES              90  67  80  65  87 /  10  40  40  40  20
ALAMOGORDO              89  66  79  64  90 /  20  30  40  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              70  51  63  48  68 /  30  40  60  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   88  66  78  64  83 /  10  30  40  30  20
SILVER CITY             82  59  76  56  80 /  30  40  40  30  20
DEMING                  91  66  81  64  86 /  10  40  40  30  20
LORDSBURG               90  65  81  63  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      91  71  82  68  88 /  10  40  40  40  30
DELL CITY               93  68  83  64  89 /  10  50  40  40  30
FORT HANCOCK            91  71  81  67  92 /  10  40  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              86  67  79  64  84 /  10  40  40  40  30
FABENS                  92  69  82  65  91 /  10  40  40  40  30
SANTA TERESA            91  69  81  67  88 /  10  40  40  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          90  68  81  66  87 /  10  40  40  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           90  67  79  65  86 /  10  40  40  40  20
HATCH                   90  66  80  64  87 /  10  40  40  30  20
COLUMBUS                90  68  80  66  87 /  10  40  40  30  20
OROGRANDE               90  68  80  66  85 /  10  40  40  40  30
MAYHILL                 75  56  67  53  80 /  30  30  50  50  40
MESCALERO               78  56  70  53  79 /  30  30  50  50  40
TIMBERON                79  57  71  54  76 /  30  40  50  50  40
WINSTON                 79  53  72  50  81 /  30  40  50  30  20
HILLSBORO               84  62  77  59  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
SPACEPORT               88  66  78  64  84 /  10  30  40  40  20
LAKE ROBERTS            82  58  75  55  80 /  30  40  50  30  20
HURLEY                  84  61  77  58  81 /  20  40  40  30  20
CLIFF                   86  60  78  54  81 /  20  40  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              84  57  78  51  78 /  20  40  40  30  20
FAYWOOD                 84  61  77  58  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
ANIMAS                  88  65  79  63  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
HACHITA                 90  65  81  63  85 /  20  40  40  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          86  63  77  61  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
CLOVERDALE              83  63  78  60  81 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/HEFNER








000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211036
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
435 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE DRYING OUT ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AS THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW MOVES TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT AND BRING UP A NEW ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.
EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS ARE
BOUND TO BE HEAVY AND COULD PRODUCE SOME FLOODING. THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL STICK AROUND ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OR ENDING THE SHOWERS FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE MODELS HINTED AT A TEMPORARY DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY AND THE
DAY TURNED OUT PROBABLY EVEN DRIER THAN THE MODELS DEPICTED. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED OUT ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE PLAINS
TOOK A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME REMAINED
OVER THE CWA BUT BECAME QUITE DIFFUSE AND THINNER. PW`S OF
1.20"-1.40" ON TUESDAY DIMINISHED TO AROUND .75"-.90" THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PW`S REMAIN ALL AROUND THE
AREA. MODELS ALL SIMILAR IN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN WEST COAST UPPER LOW MOVES TO SW ARIZONA AND
INCREASES THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. EXPECT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY OVER MOUNTAINS AS MODELS ONLY
SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MOISTURE STILL ON THE SLOW INCREASE.
MAXIMUM MOISTURE OCCURS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE NICELY IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS ABUNDANT
OVERNIGHT MOISTURE COULD CLOUD THE CWA IN WITH A THICK OVERCAST FOR
FRIDAY. PROGGED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S AND
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT. FOR NOW WILL STILL PLAY POPS AS IF
SOME SUNSHINE AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING OCCUR.

UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO TROUGH FRIDAY OVER NEW MEXICO AND MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA MID DAY SATURDAY WITH RAPID DRYING OUT BEHIND THE
TROUGH. LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN FOR THE EAST EARLY ON BUT TROUGH
PASSAGE MAY WELL KILL ALMOST ALL CONVECTION FOR THE DAY. NEXT SHIFT
CAN TRIM BACK POPS IF NEEDED. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME RECOVERY OF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN STORMS
AND THE ISOLATED STORMS ALL AREAS DURING THE EVENINGS.

UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS SOME AND DRIFTS NORTH OVER CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING WEST OF THE BAJA.
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL TURN UPPER FLOW MOVE NORTHWEST AND
PUSH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR IN. THIS MAY LIMIT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
JUST THE MOUNTAINS. GFS STILL TRYING TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT IN ON
THURSDAY SO THIS COULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. DVLPG AFT 18Z OVER
MOUNTAINS...SCT-BKN120 WITH SCATTERED -TSRA BKN100CB TOPS 420 WITH
ISOLATED 1-3SM +TSRA CIGS AOB 030. STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LOWLANDS AFT 22Z...WITH STORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW MOVING TO SW ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN
BRINGING IN MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS TONIGHT AS HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS ARE REACHED. SOME FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN FIRE ZONES. UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BEGIN SATURDAY BUT
THEN TAPER OFF WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS A BIT DRIER THAN RECENTLY BUT
STILL ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO FUEL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL COOL TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

MIN RH`S WILL RUN ABOUT 25-35% OVER THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT BRIEFLY 35-45% FRIDAY. FOR THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT
35-45% THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR 45-55% FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 93  72  83  68  89 /  10  40  40  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           87  67  77  66  87 /  10  40  40  40  30
LAS CRUCES              90  67  80  65  87 /  10  40  40  40  20
ALAMOGORDO              89  66  79  64  90 /  20  30  40  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              70  51  63  48  68 /  30  40  60  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   88  66  78  64  83 /  10  30  40  30  20
SILVER CITY             82  59  76  56  80 /  30  40  40  30  20
DEMING                  91  66  81  64  86 /  10  40  40  30  20
LORDSBURG               90  65  81  63  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      91  71  82  68  88 /  10  40  40  40  30
DELL CITY               93  68  83  64  89 /  10  50  40  40  30
FORT HANCOCK            91  71  81  67  92 /  10  40  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              86  67  79  64  84 /  10  40  40  40  30
FABENS                  92  69  82  65  91 /  10  40  40  40  30
SANTA TERESA            91  69  81  67  88 /  10  40  40  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          90  68  81  66  87 /  10  40  40  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           90  67  79  65  86 /  10  40  40  40  20
HATCH                   90  66  80  64  87 /  10  40  40  30  20
COLUMBUS                90  68  80  66  87 /  10  40  40  30  20
OROGRANDE               90  68  80  66  85 /  10  40  40  40  30
MAYHILL                 75  56  67  53  80 /  30  30  50  50  40
MESCALERO               78  56  70  53  79 /  30  30  50  50  40
TIMBERON                79  57  71  54  76 /  30  40  50  50  40
WINSTON                 79  53  72  50  81 /  30  40  50  30  20
HILLSBORO               84  62  77  59  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
SPACEPORT               88  66  78  64  84 /  10  30  40  40  20
LAKE ROBERTS            82  58  75  55  80 /  30  40  50  30  20
HURLEY                  84  61  77  58  81 /  20  40  40  30  20
CLIFF                   86  60  78  54  81 /  20  40  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              84  57  78  51  78 /  20  40  40  30  20
FAYWOOD                 84  61  77  58  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
ANIMAS                  88  65  79  63  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
HACHITA                 90  65  81  63  85 /  20  40  40  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          86  63  77  61  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
CLOVERDALE              83  63  78  60  81 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/HEFNER








000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211036
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
435 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE DRYING OUT ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AS THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW MOVES TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT AND BRING UP A NEW ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.
EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS ARE
BOUND TO BE HEAVY AND COULD PRODUCE SOME FLOODING. THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL STICK AROUND ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OR ENDING THE SHOWERS FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE MODELS HINTED AT A TEMPORARY DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY AND THE
DAY TURNED OUT PROBABLY EVEN DRIER THAN THE MODELS DEPICTED. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED OUT ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE PLAINS
TOOK A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME REMAINED
OVER THE CWA BUT BECAME QUITE DIFFUSE AND THINNER. PW`S OF
1.20"-1.40" ON TUESDAY DIMINISHED TO AROUND .75"-.90" THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PW`S REMAIN ALL AROUND THE
AREA. MODELS ALL SIMILAR IN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN WEST COAST UPPER LOW MOVES TO SW ARIZONA AND
INCREASES THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. EXPECT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY OVER MOUNTAINS AS MODELS ONLY
SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MOISTURE STILL ON THE SLOW INCREASE.
MAXIMUM MOISTURE OCCURS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE NICELY IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS ABUNDANT
OVERNIGHT MOISTURE COULD CLOUD THE CWA IN WITH A THICK OVERCAST FOR
FRIDAY. PROGGED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S AND
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT. FOR NOW WILL STILL PLAY POPS AS IF
SOME SUNSHINE AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING OCCUR.

UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO TROUGH FRIDAY OVER NEW MEXICO AND MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA MID DAY SATURDAY WITH RAPID DRYING OUT BEHIND THE
TROUGH. LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN FOR THE EAST EARLY ON BUT TROUGH
PASSAGE MAY WELL KILL ALMOST ALL CONVECTION FOR THE DAY. NEXT SHIFT
CAN TRIM BACK POPS IF NEEDED. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME RECOVERY OF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN STORMS
AND THE ISOLATED STORMS ALL AREAS DURING THE EVENINGS.

UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS SOME AND DRIFTS NORTH OVER CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING WEST OF THE BAJA.
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL TURN UPPER FLOW MOVE NORTHWEST AND
PUSH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR IN. THIS MAY LIMIT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
JUST THE MOUNTAINS. GFS STILL TRYING TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT IN ON
THURSDAY SO THIS COULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. DVLPG AFT 18Z OVER
MOUNTAINS...SCT-BKN120 WITH SCATTERED -TSRA BKN100CB TOPS 420 WITH
ISOLATED 1-3SM +TSRA CIGS AOB 030. STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LOWLANDS AFT 22Z...WITH STORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW MOVING TO SW ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN
BRINGING IN MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS TONIGHT AS HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS ARE REACHED. SOME FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN FIRE ZONES. UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BEGIN SATURDAY BUT
THEN TAPER OFF WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS A BIT DRIER THAN RECENTLY BUT
STILL ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO FUEL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL COOL TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

MIN RH`S WILL RUN ABOUT 25-35% OVER THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT BRIEFLY 35-45% FRIDAY. FOR THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT
35-45% THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR 45-55% FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 93  72  83  68  89 /  10  40  40  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           87  67  77  66  87 /  10  40  40  40  30
LAS CRUCES              90  67  80  65  87 /  10  40  40  40  20
ALAMOGORDO              89  66  79  64  90 /  20  30  40  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              70  51  63  48  68 /  30  40  60  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   88  66  78  64  83 /  10  30  40  30  20
SILVER CITY             82  59  76  56  80 /  30  40  40  30  20
DEMING                  91  66  81  64  86 /  10  40  40  30  20
LORDSBURG               90  65  81  63  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      91  71  82  68  88 /  10  40  40  40  30
DELL CITY               93  68  83  64  89 /  10  50  40  40  30
FORT HANCOCK            91  71  81  67  92 /  10  40  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              86  67  79  64  84 /  10  40  40  40  30
FABENS                  92  69  82  65  91 /  10  40  40  40  30
SANTA TERESA            91  69  81  67  88 /  10  40  40  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          90  68  81  66  87 /  10  40  40  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           90  67  79  65  86 /  10  40  40  40  20
HATCH                   90  66  80  64  87 /  10  40  40  30  20
COLUMBUS                90  68  80  66  87 /  10  40  40  30  20
OROGRANDE               90  68  80  66  85 /  10  40  40  40  30
MAYHILL                 75  56  67  53  80 /  30  30  50  50  40
MESCALERO               78  56  70  53  79 /  30  30  50  50  40
TIMBERON                79  57  71  54  76 /  30  40  50  50  40
WINSTON                 79  53  72  50  81 /  30  40  50  30  20
HILLSBORO               84  62  77  59  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
SPACEPORT               88  66  78  64  84 /  10  30  40  40  20
LAKE ROBERTS            82  58  75  55  80 /  30  40  50  30  20
HURLEY                  84  61  77  58  81 /  20  40  40  30  20
CLIFF                   86  60  78  54  81 /  20  40  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              84  57  78  51  78 /  20  40  40  30  20
FAYWOOD                 84  61  77  58  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
ANIMAS                  88  65  79  63  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
HACHITA                 90  65  81  63  85 /  20  40  40  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          86  63  77  61  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
CLOVERDALE              83  63  78  60  81 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/HEFNER








000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211036
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
435 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE DRYING OUT ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE TEMPORARY AS THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW MOVES TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT AND BRING UP A NEW ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.
EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS ARE
BOUND TO BE HEAVY AND COULD PRODUCE SOME FLOODING. THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL STICK AROUND ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OR ENDING THE SHOWERS FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PERSIST INTO THE MID PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE MODELS HINTED AT A TEMPORARY DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY AND THE
DAY TURNED OUT PROBABLY EVEN DRIER THAN THE MODELS DEPICTED. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED OUT ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE PLAINS
TOOK A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT. THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME REMAINED
OVER THE CWA BUT BECAME QUITE DIFFUSE AND THINNER. PW`S OF
1.20"-1.40" ON TUESDAY DIMINISHED TO AROUND .75"-.90" THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PW`S REMAIN ALL AROUND THE
AREA. MODELS ALL SIMILAR IN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN WEST COAST UPPER LOW MOVES TO SW ARIZONA AND
INCREASES THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. EXPECT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED AND MOSTLY OVER MOUNTAINS AS MODELS ONLY
SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MOISTURE STILL ON THE SLOW INCREASE.
MAXIMUM MOISTURE OCCURS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE NICELY IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS ABUNDANT
OVERNIGHT MOISTURE COULD CLOUD THE CWA IN WITH A THICK OVERCAST FOR
FRIDAY. PROGGED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S AND
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THAT. FOR NOW WILL STILL PLAY POPS AS IF
SOME SUNSHINE AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING OCCUR.

UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO TROUGH FRIDAY OVER NEW MEXICO AND MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA MID DAY SATURDAY WITH RAPID DRYING OUT BEHIND THE
TROUGH. LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN FOR THE EAST EARLY ON BUT TROUGH
PASSAGE MAY WELL KILL ALMOST ALL CONVECTION FOR THE DAY. NEXT SHIFT
CAN TRIM BACK POPS IF NEEDED. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME RECOVERY OF MOISTURE. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN STORMS
AND THE ISOLATED STORMS ALL AREAS DURING THE EVENINGS.

UPPER HIGH STRENGTHENS SOME AND DRIFTS NORTH OVER CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING WEST OF THE BAJA.
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL TURN UPPER FLOW MOVE NORTHWEST AND
PUSH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR IN. THIS MAY LIMIT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
JUST THE MOUNTAINS. GFS STILL TRYING TO PUSH BACK DOOR FRONT IN ON
THURSDAY SO THIS COULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT STILL
BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. DVLPG AFT 18Z OVER
MOUNTAINS...SCT-BKN120 WITH SCATTERED -TSRA BKN100CB TOPS 420 WITH
ISOLATED 1-3SM +TSRA CIGS AOB 030. STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LOWLANDS AFT 22Z...WITH STORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW MOVING TO SW ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN
BRINGING IN MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS TONIGHT AS HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS ARE REACHED. SOME FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND SLOWLY PUSH THE MOISTURE
MORE OVER THE EASTERN FIRE ZONES. UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BEGIN SATURDAY BUT
THEN TAPER OFF WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS A BIT DRIER THAN RECENTLY BUT
STILL ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO FUEL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL COOL TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

MIN RH`S WILL RUN ABOUT 25-35% OVER THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EXCEPT BRIEFLY 35-45% FRIDAY. FOR THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT
35-45% THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR 45-55% FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 93  72  83  68  89 /  10  40  40  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           87  67  77  66  87 /  10  40  40  40  30
LAS CRUCES              90  67  80  65  87 /  10  40  40  40  20
ALAMOGORDO              89  66  79  64  90 /  20  30  40  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              70  51  63  48  68 /  30  40  60  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   88  66  78  64  83 /  10  30  40  30  20
SILVER CITY             82  59  76  56  80 /  30  40  40  30  20
DEMING                  91  66  81  64  86 /  10  40  40  30  20
LORDSBURG               90  65  81  63  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      91  71  82  68  88 /  10  40  40  40  30
DELL CITY               93  68  83  64  89 /  10  50  40  40  30
FORT HANCOCK            91  71  81  67  92 /  10  40  40  40  30
LOMA LINDA              86  67  79  64  84 /  10  40  40  40  30
FABENS                  92  69  82  65  91 /  10  40  40  40  30
SANTA TERESA            91  69  81  67  88 /  10  40  40  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          90  68  81  66  87 /  10  40  40  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           90  67  79  65  86 /  10  40  40  40  20
HATCH                   90  66  80  64  87 /  10  40  40  30  20
COLUMBUS                90  68  80  66  87 /  10  40  40  30  20
OROGRANDE               90  68  80  66  85 /  10  40  40  40  30
MAYHILL                 75  56  67  53  80 /  30  30  50  50  40
MESCALERO               78  56  70  53  79 /  30  30  50  50  40
TIMBERON                79  57  71  54  76 /  30  40  50  50  40
WINSTON                 79  53  72  50  81 /  30  40  50  30  20
HILLSBORO               84  62  77  59  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
SPACEPORT               88  66  78  64  84 /  10  30  40  40  20
LAKE ROBERTS            82  58  75  55  80 /  30  40  50  30  20
HURLEY                  84  61  77  58  81 /  20  40  40  30  20
CLIFF                   86  60  78  54  81 /  20  40  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              84  57  78  51  78 /  20  40  40  30  20
FAYWOOD                 84  61  77  58  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
ANIMAS                  88  65  79  63  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
HACHITA                 90  65  81  63  85 /  20  40  40  30  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          86  63  77  61  84 /  20  40  40  30  20
CLOVERDALE              83  63  78  60  81 /  20  40  40  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/HEFNER








000
FXUS64 KMAF 210951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
451 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Return return flow will continue next 24 hours, w/a 40+kt LLJ forecast
to develop near the end of the forecast period. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field again by late morning,
w/bases 4-8 kft agl. VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours.
Sfc trough is forecast to shift WNW later today, as will the
chances for convection. We`ll insert a mention at KCNM, which
models suggest will have the best chances later today. Latest
buffer soundings for KMAF suggest brief IFR cigs at KMAF this
morning, which received 1/4-1/2" of rain yesterday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The overall pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours. The
upper low has become stationary along the CA coastline as the upper
ridge maintains its position along the Gulf Coast. These systems
will play a great deal into our weather over the next couple of
days. The GFS and NAM have struggled with the strength of the upper
high as well as the location of a sfc trough over the area. This
caused them to generate precip too far west and underestimate the
overall coverage yesterday. The ECMWF has performed the best along
with some of the short term high-res models. Model QPF seems to
align with an upper level shear axis across the area which will
likely help with convection today and Friday. Subtle disturbances
in the weak flow aloft may also enhance convection, but these are
hard to detect until cu begins to develop during the afternoon.
With the above said, higher PoPs are warranted for western
portions of the PB and SE NM for today and Friday. We may again
see some heavy rain as Gulf moisture continues to stream in with
PWATS near 1.5".

Convection should be confined mostly to the higher terrain and SE NM
by the weekend as the upper ridge builds west. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal across most of the area with near
normal values across the west where the better chance for rain lies.

Models begin to diverge next week with the GFS digging a trough
across the Rockies and weakening the ridge. The ECMWF keeps a strong
ridge in place before weakening it late in the week. Will stay with
persistence here and keep it warm and mostly dry until model
solutions converge better.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
451 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Return return flow will continue next 24 hours, w/a 40+kt LLJ forecast
to develop near the end of the forecast period. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field again by late morning,
w/bases 4-8 kft agl. VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours.
Sfc trough is forecast to shift WNW later today, as will the
chances for convection. We`ll insert a mention at KCNM, which
models suggest will have the best chances later today. Latest
buffer soundings for KMAF suggest brief IFR cigs at KMAF this
morning, which received 1/4-1/2" of rain yesterday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The overall pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours. The
upper low has become stationary along the CA coastline as the upper
ridge maintains its position along the Gulf Coast. These systems
will play a great deal into our weather over the next couple of
days. The GFS and NAM have struggled with the strength of the upper
high as well as the location of a sfc trough over the area. This
caused them to generate precip too far west and underestimate the
overall coverage yesterday. The ECMWF has performed the best along
with some of the short term high-res models. Model QPF seems to
align with an upper level shear axis across the area which will
likely help with convection today and Friday. Subtle disturbances
in the weak flow aloft may also enhance convection, but these are
hard to detect until cu begins to develop during the afternoon.
With the above said, higher PoPs are warranted for western
portions of the PB and SE NM for today and Friday. We may again
see some heavy rain as Gulf moisture continues to stream in with
PWATS near 1.5".

Convection should be confined mostly to the higher terrain and SE NM
by the weekend as the upper ridge builds west. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal across most of the area with near
normal values across the west where the better chance for rain lies.

Models begin to diverge next week with the GFS digging a trough
across the Rockies and weakening the ridge. The ECMWF keeps a strong
ridge in place before weakening it late in the week. Will stay with
persistence here and keep it warm and mostly dry until model
solutions converge better.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
451 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Return return flow will continue next 24 hours, w/a 40+kt LLJ forecast
to develop near the end of the forecast period. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field again by late morning,
w/bases 4-8 kft agl. VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours.
Sfc trough is forecast to shift WNW later today, as will the
chances for convection. We`ll insert a mention at KCNM, which
models suggest will have the best chances later today. Latest
buffer soundings for KMAF suggest brief IFR cigs at KMAF this
morning, which received 1/4-1/2" of rain yesterday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The overall pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours. The
upper low has become stationary along the CA coastline as the upper
ridge maintains its position along the Gulf Coast. These systems
will play a great deal into our weather over the next couple of
days. The GFS and NAM have struggled with the strength of the upper
high as well as the location of a sfc trough over the area. This
caused them to generate precip too far west and underestimate the
overall coverage yesterday. The ECMWF has performed the best along
with some of the short term high-res models. Model QPF seems to
align with an upper level shear axis across the area which will
likely help with convection today and Friday. Subtle disturbances
in the weak flow aloft may also enhance convection, but these are
hard to detect until cu begins to develop during the afternoon.
With the above said, higher PoPs are warranted for western
portions of the PB and SE NM for today and Friday. We may again
see some heavy rain as Gulf moisture continues to stream in with
PWATS near 1.5".

Convection should be confined mostly to the higher terrain and SE NM
by the weekend as the upper ridge builds west. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal across most of the area with near
normal values across the west where the better chance for rain lies.

Models begin to diverge next week with the GFS digging a trough
across the Rockies and weakening the ridge. The ECMWF keeps a strong
ridge in place before weakening it late in the week. Will stay with
persistence here and keep it warm and mostly dry until model
solutions converge better.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
451 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Return return flow will continue next 24 hours, w/a 40+kt LLJ forecast
to develop near the end of the forecast period. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field again by late morning,
w/bases 4-8 kft agl. VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours.
Sfc trough is forecast to shift WNW later today, as will the
chances for convection. We`ll insert a mention at KCNM, which
models suggest will have the best chances later today. Latest
buffer soundings for KMAF suggest brief IFR cigs at KMAF this
morning, which received 1/4-1/2" of rain yesterday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The overall pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours. The
upper low has become stationary along the CA coastline as the upper
ridge maintains its position along the Gulf Coast. These systems
will play a great deal into our weather over the next couple of
days. The GFS and NAM have struggled with the strength of the upper
high as well as the location of a sfc trough over the area. This
caused them to generate precip too far west and underestimate the
overall coverage yesterday. The ECMWF has performed the best along
with some of the short term high-res models. Model QPF seems to
align with an upper level shear axis across the area which will
likely help with convection today and Friday. Subtle disturbances
in the weak flow aloft may also enhance convection, but these are
hard to detect until cu begins to develop during the afternoon.
With the above said, higher PoPs are warranted for western
portions of the PB and SE NM for today and Friday. We may again
see some heavy rain as Gulf moisture continues to stream in with
PWATS near 1.5".

Convection should be confined mostly to the higher terrain and SE NM
by the weekend as the upper ridge builds west. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal across most of the area with near
normal values across the west where the better chance for rain lies.

Models begin to diverge next week with the GFS digging a trough
across the Rockies and weakening the ridge. The ECMWF keeps a strong
ridge in place before weakening it late in the week. Will stay with
persistence here and keep it warm and mostly dry until model
solutions converge better.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210926
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
426 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The overall pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours. The
upper low has become stationary along the CA coastline as the upper
ridge maintains its position along the Gulf Coast. These systems
will play a great deal into our weather over the next couple of
days. The GFS and NAM have struggled with the strength of the upper
high as well as the location of a sfc trough over the area. This
caused them to generate precip too far west and underestimate the
overall coverage yesterday. The ECMWF has performed the best along
with some of the short term high-res models. Model QPF seems to
align with an upper level shear axis across the area which will
likely help with convection today and Friday. Subtle disturbances
in the weak flow aloft may also enhance convection, but these are
hard to detect until cu begins to develop during the afternoon.
With the above said, higher PoPs are warranted for western
portions of the PB and SE NM for today and Friday. We may again
see some heavy rain as Gulf moisture continues to stream in with
PWATS near 1.5".

Convection should be confined mostly to the higher terrain and SE NM
by the weekend as the upper ridge builds west. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal across most of the area with near
normal values across the west where the better chance for rain lies.

Models begin to diverge next week with the GFS digging a trough
across the Rockies and weakening the ridge. The ECMWF keeps a strong
ridge in place before weakening it late in the week. Will stay with
persistence here and keep it warm and mostly dry until model
solutions converge better.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 94  72  93  69  /  10  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              96  73  96  70  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                96  72  91  70  /  30  30  40  40
DRYDEN TX                  98  73  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           94  71  93  70  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          88  65  79  63  /  30  30  40  40
HOBBS NM                   92  67  91  66  /  30  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   86  63  85  60  /  30  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    95  74  94  71  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  93  74  93  71  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    97  76  95  72  /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210926
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
426 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The overall pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours. The
upper low has become stationary along the CA coastline as the upper
ridge maintains its position along the Gulf Coast. These systems
will play a great deal into our weather over the next couple of
days. The GFS and NAM have struggled with the strength of the upper
high as well as the location of a sfc trough over the area. This
caused them to generate precip too far west and underestimate the
overall coverage yesterday. The ECMWF has performed the best along
with some of the short term high-res models. Model QPF seems to
align with an upper level shear axis across the area which will
likely help with convection today and Friday. Subtle disturbances
in the weak flow aloft may also enhance convection, but these are
hard to detect until cu begins to develop during the afternoon.
With the above said, higher PoPs are warranted for western
portions of the PB and SE NM for today and Friday. We may again
see some heavy rain as Gulf moisture continues to stream in with
PWATS near 1.5".

Convection should be confined mostly to the higher terrain and SE NM
by the weekend as the upper ridge builds west. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal across most of the area with near
normal values across the west where the better chance for rain lies.

Models begin to diverge next week with the GFS digging a trough
across the Rockies and weakening the ridge. The ECMWF keeps a strong
ridge in place before weakening it late in the week. Will stay with
persistence here and keep it warm and mostly dry until model
solutions converge better.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 94  72  93  69  /  10  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              96  73  96  70  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                96  72  91  70  /  30  30  40  40
DRYDEN TX                  98  73  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           94  71  93  70  /  20  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          88  65  79  63  /  30  30  40  40
HOBBS NM                   92  67  91  66  /  30  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   86  63  85  60  /  30  30  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    95  74  94  71  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  93  74  93  71  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    97  76  95  72  /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/29

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 210920
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
420 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Expect dry conditions for the next 24 hours, with afternoon highs
today above seasonal normals. As an upper ridge continues to
dominate the region, a thermal ridge at 850mb will expand into West
Central Texas this afternoon. This will help push afternoon highs
into mainly the upper 90s to around 100 range for most of West
Central Texas. Morning low clouds will help limit afternoon highs
across our southern counties to mainly around 95.

Huber

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper level high over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday
will slowly move north during the weekend, and is progged to be
centered over southeastern Missouri and extreme southern Illinois
on Monday. This will be our dominant weather influence with clear
to partly cloudy skies through the early part of next week. Little
day-to-day change is expected with our temperatures. Highs will be
a few degrees above normal and mostly in the mid to upper 90s, with
overnight lows mostly in the lower 70s. Models continue to indicate
a few weak disturbances aloft lifting from New Mexico northeast
across the Texas Panhandle and into Kansas during the weekend. Any
associated convection is expected to stay to our west and
northwest.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF diverge in solutions Tuesday-Thursday of
next week, and this has implication on whether a weak cold front
may enter our area from the north. The GFS is more progressive
with the upper pattern and has a stronger upper trough moving east
across the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday, and across the
northern and central Plains Wednesday. The GFS has an upper ridge
building into the western part of the country behind the trough,
with weak northwest flow aloft developing over our area by the end
of the period. This setup would favor a weak cold front moving
south into our counties late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
some possibility of shower/thunderstorm development. The ECMWF
closes off an upper low over northern California Monday night,
then takes it slowly east to near the Idaho/Utah/Wyoming border by
Wednesday night. The ECMWF also has the upper high drifting back
to the southwest, to along the Oklahoma/Arkansas border Tuesday
night.

Given the considerable model differences and uncertainty at this
time, leaning toward persistence with the forecast on Day 7 (next
Wednesday).

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  76  97  72  97 /   0   5   0   0   5
San Angelo  97  75  97  71  97 /   0   5   0   0   5
Junction  95  75  95  70  95 /   5   0   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KSJT 210920
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
420 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Expect dry conditions for the next 24 hours, with afternoon highs
today above seasonal normals. As an upper ridge continues to
dominate the region, a thermal ridge at 850mb will expand into West
Central Texas this afternoon. This will help push afternoon highs
into mainly the upper 90s to around 100 range for most of West
Central Texas. Morning low clouds will help limit afternoon highs
across our southern counties to mainly around 95.

Huber

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

The upper level high over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday
will slowly move north during the weekend, and is progged to be
centered over southeastern Missouri and extreme southern Illinois
on Monday. This will be our dominant weather influence with clear
to partly cloudy skies through the early part of next week. Little
day-to-day change is expected with our temperatures. Highs will be
a few degrees above normal and mostly in the mid to upper 90s, with
overnight lows mostly in the lower 70s. Models continue to indicate
a few weak disturbances aloft lifting from New Mexico northeast
across the Texas Panhandle and into Kansas during the weekend. Any
associated convection is expected to stay to our west and
northwest.

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF diverge in solutions Tuesday-Thursday of
next week, and this has implication on whether a weak cold front
may enter our area from the north. The GFS is more progressive
with the upper pattern and has a stronger upper trough moving east
across the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday, and across the
northern and central Plains Wednesday. The GFS has an upper ridge
building into the western part of the country behind the trough,
with weak northwest flow aloft developing over our area by the end
of the period. This setup would favor a weak cold front moving
south into our counties late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
some possibility of shower/thunderstorm development. The ECMWF
closes off an upper low over northern California Monday night,
then takes it slowly east to near the Idaho/Utah/Wyoming border by
Wednesday night. The ECMWF also has the upper high drifting back
to the southwest, to along the Oklahoma/Arkansas border Tuesday
night.

Given the considerable model differences and uncertainty at this
time, leaning toward persistence with the forecast on Day 7 (next
Wednesday).

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  98  76  97  72  97 /   0   5   0   0   5
San Angelo  97  75  97  71  97 /   0   5   0   0   5
Junction  95  75  95  70  95 /   5   0   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KAMA 210915
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  LOW THUNDERSTORM
POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OWING TO
PERSISTENCE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND DIURNAL INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AXES.  MODERATE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CAPPING ISSUES.  IN FACT...MODELS PREDICT
COOLING OF SAME IN LATER PERIODS.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE SPREAD POPS EASTWARD...DUE TO EXPECTED
SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVERSING MOISTURE PLUME.  FRIDAY EVENING POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS AS ANOTHER EXPECTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES.

ON SATURDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST THREE-FOURTHS OF FORECAST AREA...AS MODELS AGREE THAT MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA SHOULD PASS OVER INSTABILITY AXIS.   FOR THE
EVENING...LOW POPS HAVE BEEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AS DYNAMICS
PASS.

FOR SUNDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS.
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS HAVE BEEN REALIGNED...WITH HIGHER POPS NOW IN
NORTHEAST SECTIONS...WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED AS 500 MB COLD POOL ARRIVES.

NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.  00Z GFS BRINGS COLD FRONT INTO
PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO EARLIER ECMWF RUN.  HAVE
ACCEPTED THIS SCENARIO...WITH WIND SHIFT AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                93  67  92  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                 102  70 100  68  99 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              95  66  91  63  92 /  20  20  20  30  10
BORGER TX                  98  72  96  69  95 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              96  68  95  66  95 /  20  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  93  66  92  64  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               96  71  96  67  94 /  20  20  10  20  20
DALHART TX                 95  64  91  62  92 /  20  20  20  30  10
GUYMON OK                  99  68  96  65  95 /  20  20  20  30  20
HEREFORD TX                92  64  90  62  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                97  71  99  69  96 /  20  20  10  20  20
PAMPA TX                   94  68  94  66  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                96  72  97  67  95 /  20  20  10  10  20
WELLINGTON TX              98  72 100  68  96 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 210915
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  LOW THUNDERSTORM
POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR MOST AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS OWING TO
PERSISTENCE TO MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND DIURNAL INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AXES.  MODERATE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD CAPPING ISSUES.  IN FACT...MODELS PREDICT
COOLING OF SAME IN LATER PERIODS.

FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE SPREAD POPS EASTWARD...DUE TO EXPECTED
SHORTWAVE TROF TRAVERSING MOISTURE PLUME.  FRIDAY EVENING POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED IN NORTHWEST SECTIONS AS ANOTHER EXPECTED SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES.

ON SATURDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST THREE-FOURTHS OF FORECAST AREA...AS MODELS AGREE THAT MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA SHOULD PASS OVER INSTABILITY AXIS.   FOR THE
EVENING...LOW POPS HAVE BEEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTHEAST...AS DYNAMICS
PASS.

FOR SUNDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS.
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS HAVE BEEN REALIGNED...WITH HIGHER POPS NOW IN
NORTHEAST SECTIONS...WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED AS 500 MB COLD POOL ARRIVES.

NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.  00Z GFS BRINGS COLD FRONT INTO
PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO EARLIER ECMWF RUN.  HAVE
ACCEPTED THIS SCENARIO...WITH WIND SHIFT AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE
20 PERCENT AND UNSUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                93  67  92  65  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                 102  70 100  68  99 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              95  66  91  63  92 /  20  20  20  30  10
BORGER TX                  98  72  96  69  95 /  20  20  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              96  68  95  66  95 /  20  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  93  66  92  64  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               96  71  96  67  94 /  20  20  10  20  20
DALHART TX                 95  64  91  62  92 /  20  20  20  30  10
GUYMON OK                  99  68  96  65  95 /  20  20  20  30  20
HEREFORD TX                92  64  90  62  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                97  71  99  69  96 /  20  20  10  20  20
PAMPA TX                   94  68  94  66  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                96  72  97  67  95 /  20  20  10  10  20
WELLINGTON TX              98  72 100  68  96 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/03




000
FXUS64 KFWD 210915
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
415 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A REMARKABLY STOUT LLJ FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (35-40KTS) HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT THIN) STRATUS ALONG THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. A FIBROUS DECK HAS INVADED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A FEW FRAGMENTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER DAYBREAK. AS THESE STRONG WINDS MIX WITH THE
SURFACE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING...WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN.
SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES...BUT THE WIND WILL HELP TAKE AN EDGE OFF THE
HEAT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...EXPECT
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TAKING A SHARP LEFT TURN INTO THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD FARTHER WEST THE PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEATLY STACKED VERTICALLY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM 10KFT ABOVE MSL TO AROUND 35KFT...WHICH WILL
ASSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ITS
INTENSITY IS STILL RATHER ORDINARY FOR AUGUST...AND ITS PLACEMENT
EAST OF TEXAS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL HEATING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER. THIS WILL REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FROM
WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...MEANING THAT ACHIEVING TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT. A NIGHTLY LLJ WILL
MEAN REPEATED STRATUS INTRUSIONS...PRIMARILY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL DO LITTLE TO
PREVENT HOT AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 100 BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105.

A PIECE OF UPPER VORTICITY IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE
TUTT SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH IT WILL
GUIDE IT NORTHWARD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE POLAR JET WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHEAR IT...BUT THE TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THE
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND SHOULD BE UNABLE TO
DISRUPT THE DEEP SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT.

AS THE UPPER LOW ENTERS CANADA...THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF
THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL MEAN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE MORNING
STRATUS AND WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE OPPRESSIVE...
BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW AND THE GFS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS IN THAT IT KEEPS THE FLOW UNIMPEDED. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE CONSENSUS FAVORS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED NORTH WINDS AND
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE WILL NOT
APPEAR IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.

25

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES
AND WILL RESULT IN HIGHS BETWEEN THE MID 90S AND 102 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM BECOMING
TOO STRONG. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS FOR A HIGH FIRE DANGER...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE...DECATUR...COMANCHE LINE. FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT BOTH POSSUM KINGDOM RESERVOIR AND MILLER/S CREEK RAWS
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW 10...INDICATING SOME DRYING OF
FINE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST MAY SEE OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS BUT WILL ALSO SEE RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO MID TO UPPER 90S. THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE THIS EVENING
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT WILL ARRIVE AT
KACT AROUND 12-13Z. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ALSO BRINGS THE STRATUS
INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 14Z WITH BASES BETWEEN 2-3 KFT...HOWEVER
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STRATUS TO THE EAST OF THE
METROPLEX. WILL KEEP THE MVFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. THE
STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER AROUND 16-17Z WITH VFR
PREVAILING THE REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN
10-17 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25
KTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  78  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         98  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  76  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25





000
FXUS64 KFWD 210915
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
415 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A REMARKABLY STOUT LLJ FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (35-40KTS) HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT THIN) STRATUS ALONG THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. A FIBROUS DECK HAS INVADED SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A FEW FRAGMENTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER DAYBREAK. AS THESE STRONG WINDS MIX WITH THE
SURFACE LAYER LATER THIS MORNING...WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN.
SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES...BUT THE WIND WILL HELP TAKE AN EDGE OFF THE
HEAT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX INTO LOUISIANA TODAY...EXPECT
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

THE TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN STATES IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW TAKING A SHARP LEFT TURN INTO THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD FARTHER WEST THE PREVIOUSLY
PROGGED. THE RIDGE WILL BE NEATLY STACKED VERTICALLY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...FROM 10KFT ABOVE MSL TO AROUND 35KFT...WHICH WILL
ASSURE SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ITS
INTENSITY IS STILL RATHER ORDINARY FOR AUGUST...AND ITS PLACEMENT
EAST OF TEXAS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. IN ADDITION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL HEATING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER. THIS WILL REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES FROM
WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...MEANING THAT ACHIEVING TRIPLE-
DIGIT HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT. A NIGHTLY LLJ WILL
MEAN REPEATED STRATUS INTRUSIONS...PRIMARILY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE MORNING CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL DO LITTLE TO
PREVENT HOT AFTERNOONS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 100 BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105.

A PIECE OF UPPER VORTICITY IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT FROM THE
TUTT SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BENEATH IT WILL
GUIDE IT NORTHWARD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE. THE POLAR JET WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHEAR IT...BUT THE TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THE
FEATURE WILL QUICKLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND SHOULD BE UNABLE TO
DISRUPT THE DEEP SUBSIDENCE BENEATH IT.

AS THE UPPER LOW ENTERS CANADA...THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF
THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH WILL MEAN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE MORNING
STRATUS AND WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE OPPRESSIVE...
BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW AND THE GFS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS IN THAT IT KEEPS THE FLOW UNIMPEDED. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE CONSENSUS FAVORS A
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK. HAVE INTRODUCED NORTH WINDS AND
SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE WILL NOT
APPEAR IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY.

25

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STATES
AND WILL RESULT IN HIGHS BETWEEN THE MID 90S AND 102 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOWER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM BECOMING
TOO STRONG. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS FOR A HIGH FIRE DANGER...PARTICULARLY THOSE AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE...DECATUR...COMANCHE LINE. FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS AT BOTH POSSUM KINGDOM RESERVOIR AND MILLER/S CREEK RAWS
OBSERVATIONS WERE ALREADY BELOW 10...INDICATING SOME DRYING OF
FINE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE...AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST MAY SEE OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS BUT WILL ALSO SEE RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO MID TO UPPER 90S. THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE THIS EVENING
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT WILL ARRIVE AT
KACT AROUND 12-13Z. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ALSO BRINGS THE STRATUS
INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 14Z WITH BASES BETWEEN 2-3 KFT...HOWEVER
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STRATUS TO THE EAST OF THE
METROPLEX. WILL KEEP THE MVFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. THE
STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER AROUND 16-17Z WITH VFR
PREVAILING THE REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN
10-17 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25
KTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             97  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  77  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  75  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            99  78  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         98  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  76  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     99  73  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25






000
FXUS64 KLUB 210901
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
401 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS ALSO IS WITHIN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE
AS WELL AS A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH. DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
THIS MORNING. A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS POTENTIALLY COULD FACTOR IN LATER
TODAY. BUT IF ANYTHING...FLOW SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY FAVORING LESS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN ZONES. SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
GENERATING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
ZONES VERY SIMILAR TO OUR GOING FORECAST. WITHOUT CONVINCING
ARGUMENT TO FAVOR EITHER A DRY OR WET FORECAST TODAY...WE WILL
RETAIN THE GIST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TILTING BEST CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE MODEL FAVORED AREAS. EDGED TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS UP
A HALF-NOTCH IN LINE WITH TRENDS AND CLOSER TO YESTERDAYS MAXIMUMS.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN MODERATELY BREEZY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PEAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING TREND BY LATE EVENING...
ALSO FAVORING CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A FEW STORMS MAY
EXTEND JUST PAST MIDNIGHT SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD NEAR THE STATE LINE AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
PRECIP PUSH. THE GFS/NAM KEEP A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROF ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE CO-LOCATED WITH
FORCING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY PRETTY CONFINED TO THIS AREA AS STEERING
FLOW IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND IS FAIRLY WEAK. SOME STORMS MAY
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THAT SCENARIO IS
UNKNOWN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FROM THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
WESTWARD WHILE CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
HAVE LOST SOME OF ITS ENERGY AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. WHILE WEAKER...THE
SHORTWAVE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONVECT ALONG A SURFACE TROF
REMAINING FROM FRIDAY. WITH THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO COVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY BUT WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE RELAXED AS WE ARE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHILE CONTINUING TO
TAP MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS FUZZY BUT SOMEWHAT
DISCERNIBLE. THE GFS BRINGS A DEEPER TROF EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
PLAINS KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE TROF IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY AS RIDGING SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF GOES BY THE
PHILOSOPHY THAT SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE AND PROLONGS THE FROPA
TILL NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT TIME IT KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NV.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN BE MADE ON FROPA TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  65  90  61  86 /  30  30  30  30  20
TULIA         96  67  92  64  89 /  30  30  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     94  67  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     93  66  90  63  87 /  30  30  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       94  69  94  66  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  66  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  67  92  65  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     99  74  98  70  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          97  68  95  66  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  73  98  69  97 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/51







000
FXUS64 KLUB 210901
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
401 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS ALSO IS WITHIN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE
AS WELL AS A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH. DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
THIS MORNING. A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS POTENTIALLY COULD FACTOR IN LATER
TODAY. BUT IF ANYTHING...FLOW SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY FAVORING LESS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN ZONES. SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
GENERATING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
ZONES VERY SIMILAR TO OUR GOING FORECAST. WITHOUT CONVINCING
ARGUMENT TO FAVOR EITHER A DRY OR WET FORECAST TODAY...WE WILL
RETAIN THE GIST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TILTING BEST CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE MODEL FAVORED AREAS. EDGED TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS UP
A HALF-NOTCH IN LINE WITH TRENDS AND CLOSER TO YESTERDAYS MAXIMUMS.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN MODERATELY BREEZY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PEAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING TREND BY LATE EVENING...
ALSO FAVORING CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A FEW STORMS MAY
EXTEND JUST PAST MIDNIGHT SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD NEAR THE STATE LINE AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
PRECIP PUSH. THE GFS/NAM KEEP A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROF ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE CO-LOCATED WITH
FORCING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY PRETTY CONFINED TO THIS AREA AS STEERING
FLOW IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND IS FAIRLY WEAK. SOME STORMS MAY
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THAT SCENARIO IS
UNKNOWN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FROM THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
WESTWARD WHILE CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
HAVE LOST SOME OF ITS ENERGY AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. WHILE WEAKER...THE
SHORTWAVE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONVECT ALONG A SURFACE TROF
REMAINING FROM FRIDAY. WITH THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO COVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY BUT WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE RELAXED AS WE ARE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHILE CONTINUING TO
TAP MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS FUZZY BUT SOMEWHAT
DISCERNIBLE. THE GFS BRINGS A DEEPER TROF EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
PLAINS KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE TROF IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY AS RIDGING SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF GOES BY THE
PHILOSOPHY THAT SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE AND PROLONGS THE FROPA
TILL NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT TIME IT KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NV.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN BE MADE ON FROPA TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  65  90  61  86 /  30  30  30  30  20
TULIA         96  67  92  64  89 /  30  30  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     94  67  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     93  66  90  63  87 /  30  30  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       94  69  94  66  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   94  66  91  64  89 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  67  92  65  91 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     99  74  98  70  97 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          97  68  95  66  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  73  98  69  97 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/51






000
FXUS64 KBRO 210853
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
353 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...A STUBBORN H5 HIGH HEIGHT
CENTER WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SAME AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND TO KEEP STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS WEST AND MORE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY...WINDS MIGHT BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MUTED AS DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...WITH PWAT SINKING BELOW 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE.

TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST BY MID
MORNING AS SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME MODERATE TO BREEZY. A WEAK
SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING...BUT POPS ARE SILENT
FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 90S EAST
TO THE CENTURY MARK AND ABOVE WEST OF U.S. 77 AND INLAND TO THE
UPPER VALLEY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 110...AND
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...A FEW LESS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A BIT MORE SUN AS RIDGING
OVER THE NORTH GULF SHIFTS WEST. TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ALLOWING RESIDENT RIDGING OVER THE GULF TO
AMPLIFY AND SHIFT FARTHER WEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL MIMIC THOSE OF
THURSDAY...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AND MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE AROUND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND
THEN WEAKEN AND HEAD NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE
AND LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE ON TOP OF US FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL SEE A FEW SURGES OF MOISTURE BEGINNING SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS
TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY ALBEIT NOT THE
GREATEST OF CHANCES. PWATS LOOK TO JUMP UP TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES
THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. AN UPPER TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF EARLY MONDAY THEN INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS TUESDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS LOOK REASONABLE DESPITE DECREASING PWATS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALL IN ALL DIDNT PLAY MUCH WITH THE GOING POPS. EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORM INITIATED BY THE SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN BORDER...LOW 100S ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS IN ZAPATA
COUNTY...TO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY. SHAVED
A DEGREE OFF HIGHS HERE AND THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE SEABREEZE MAY GET GOING AND CLOUD COVER WOULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT. WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL WITH THE BREEZIER DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY WHERE NEAR 20 MPH WILL
BE COMMON.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS...AS WELL AS ON THE GULF WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT...BUT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. ISOLD SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON THE GULF BUT THE CONVECTIVE
SITUATION FOR THE MARINE AREAS LOOKS MUTED OVERALL IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS AND SEAS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST TOWARD EAST TEXAS...OR CLOSER
TO OVERHEAD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS COMPARED TO THIS WEEK SO
FAR...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS EACH DAY. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL FROM MODERATE
LEVELS SATURDAY TO LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  81  95  80 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          96  79  96  78 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            99  79  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN             101  79 101  79 /  10  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 102  79 /  10  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   92  81  91  80 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BIRCHFIELD/CAMPBELL





000
FXUS64 KBRO 210853
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
353 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...A STUBBORN H5 HIGH HEIGHT
CENTER WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SAME AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND TO KEEP STRONGER WINDS IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS WEST AND MORE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY...WINDS MIGHT BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MUTED AS DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...WITH PWAT SINKING BELOW 1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE.

TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST BY MID
MORNING AS SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME MODERATE TO BREEZY. A WEAK
SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING...BUT POPS ARE SILENT
FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 90S EAST
TO THE CENTURY MARK AND ABOVE WEST OF U.S. 77 AND INLAND TO THE
UPPER VALLEY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 110...AND
POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS.

FRIDAY...A FEW LESS CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A BIT MORE SUN AS RIDGING
OVER THE NORTH GULF SHIFTS WEST. TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...ALLOWING RESIDENT RIDGING OVER THE GULF TO
AMPLIFY AND SHIFT FARTHER WEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL MIMIC THOSE OF
THURSDAY...WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AND MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE AROUND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THE WEEKEND
THEN WEAKEN AND HEAD NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE
AND LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE ON TOP OF US FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL SEE A FEW SURGES OF MOISTURE BEGINNING SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS
TO OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY ALBEIT NOT THE
GREATEST OF CHANCES. PWATS LOOK TO JUMP UP TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES
THIS WEEKEND WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. AN UPPER TROUGH /TUTT LOW/ MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF EARLY MONDAY THEN INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS TUESDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS LOOK REASONABLE DESPITE DECREASING PWATS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALL IN ALL DIDNT PLAY MUCH WITH THE GOING POPS. EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORM INITIATED BY THE SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN BORDER...LOW 100S ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS IN ZAPATA
COUNTY...TO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY. SHAVED
A DEGREE OFF HIGHS HERE AND THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE SEABREEZE MAY GET GOING AND CLOUD COVER WOULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT. WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL WITH THE BREEZIER DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY WHERE NEAR 20 MPH WILL
BE COMMON.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE WITH 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS...AS WELL AS ON THE GULF WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT...BUT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. ISOLD SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ON THE GULF BUT THE CONVECTIVE
SITUATION FOR THE MARINE AREAS LOOKS MUTED OVERALL IN THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS AND SEAS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST TOWARD EAST TEXAS...OR CLOSER
TO OVERHEAD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS COMPARED TO THIS WEEK SO
FAR...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS EACH DAY. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL FROM MODERATE
LEVELS SATURDAY TO LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  81  95  80 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          96  79  96  78 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            99  79  99  77 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN             101  79 101  79 /  10  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 102  79 /  10  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   92  81  91  80 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BIRCHFIELD/CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KHGX 210847
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE NOW INDICATING LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO FORM
TONIGHT. THESE WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE FAR LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. AT 250 MB BEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THANKS TO A BUILDING RIDGE. THE RAP PERFORMED
PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY AND SHOWS ALMOST NO RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
EXCEPT FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO IN SAN JACINTO AND LIBERTY
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF ALSO SHOWS THIS.
GIVEN THE EVIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL MAPS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS
MAKES SENSE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND POSITION ITSELF
NEAR THE ARKANSAS/ LOUISIANA BORDER ON FRIDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW RELATIVELY
LOW PWAT AIR IN PLACE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A CAP IN PLACE AT
850MB. ON MONDAY THE CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. 23

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
RELAX BY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  77  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43



000
FXUS64 KHGX 210847
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOME OBSERVATIONS ARE NOW INDICATING LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO FORM
TONIGHT. THESE WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY WILL BE FAR LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. AT 250 MB BEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO RISE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THANKS TO A BUILDING RIDGE. THE RAP PERFORMED
PRETTY WELL YESTERDAY AND SHOWS ALMOST NO RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
EXCEPT FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO IN SAN JACINTO AND LIBERTY
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEXAS TECH WRF ALSO SHOWS THIS.
GIVEN THE EVIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL MAPS MENTIONED ABOVE THIS
MAKES SENSE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND POSITION ITSELF
NEAR THE ARKANSAS/ LOUISIANA BORDER ON FRIDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW RELATIVELY
LOW PWAT AIR IN PLACE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A CAP IN PLACE AT
850MB. ON MONDAY THE CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. 23

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
RELAX BY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      98  77  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              97  77  97  77  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            92  84  92  84  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KEWX 210842
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
342 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM STORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY PROGRESS NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE HOT AND DRY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF ACTIVITY IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING HIGH MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IS THEREFORE DRYING
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PERSISTENT...AROUND THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF PRECIP COULD
BE A BIT SOONER THAN THAT DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR
NOW. JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT PACKAGE...THE GFS IS FORECASTING A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS THURSDAY/FRIDAY BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OF THE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN SO IT DOES BEAR
WATCHING.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  77  99  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  75  99  73  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  74 100  72  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  74  96  73  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77  99  75  97 /  10   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  78  97  74  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  98  72  97 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  76  99  73  97 /  -   -    0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  78  99  76  99 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  79  99  76  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  77 100  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99






000
FXUS64 KEWX 210842
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
342 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COUPLE OF WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM STORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS THEY PROGRESS NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE HOT AND DRY FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF ACTIVITY IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR LESS ON FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING HIGH MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST. THE SUBSEQUENT SUBSIDENCE IS THEREFORE DRYING
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE TOO MUCH AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PERSISTENT...AROUND THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR
100 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH BY SUNDAY.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE VALUES TO SLOWLY
INCREASE AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF PRECIP COULD
BE A BIT SOONER THAN THAT DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY FOR
NOW. JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT PACKAGE...THE GFS IS FORECASTING A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TEXAS THURSDAY/FRIDAY BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OF THE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
GFSENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN SO IT DOES BEAR
WATCHING.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             100  77  99  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  99  75  99  73  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    100  74 100  72  99 /  -   -    0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            97  74  96  73  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           98  77  99  75  97 /  10   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        98  78  97  74  96 /  -   -    0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             99  74  98  72  97 /  -    0   0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        99  76  99  73  97 /  -   -    0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   99  78  99  76  99 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       98  79  99  76  98 /  -   -    0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           99  77 100  75  99 /  -   -    0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99







000
FXUS64 KCRP 210838
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
338 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOWS DRIER AIR PUSHING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST. THIS DRIER AIRMASS /H9 AND ABOVE/ IS PROG TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MOST OF TODAY. EARLY MORNING STRATUS /DUE IN PART TO A
STRONG SRLY LLJ THIS MORNING/ SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY MID
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES TODAY AND COMBINATION OF HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES REACHING 110 OR
GREATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUS...A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR VICTORIA COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY AS EARLY
MORNING LLJ MOMENTUM TRANSFERS TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND AS STRONG
AFTERNOON THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS. COMBINATION OF DIURNAL MIXING
AND STRONGER WIND SPEEDS HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING WITH MORE DETAILS INCLUDED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100
DEGREES OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND MIN TEMPS NEAR 80.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES
REQUIRED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OCCURS...AND WITH WINDS DECREASING...POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE INITIALLY
LIMITED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO FEEL NO NEED TO ADD
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. RESPECTABLE MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION REALLY
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN A VERY WEAK TUTT MOVES INLAND
OR AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE COAST. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE
BETTER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND NEAR
SURFACE WINDS NOT THAT STRONG. ECMWF HAS COME IN WETTER FOR THE 00Z
THAN IT WAS FOR THE 12Z RUN...SO THIS ADDS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TO
RAINFALL FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. STILL...WILL ONLY GO WITH 20 POPS
SINCE IT IS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AND MOISTURE FIELDS
COULD BECOME DRIER AGAIN. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES...MOISTURE FIELDS AND WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&

.MARINE...STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN COASTAL AND INLAND LOCATIONS WHICH SHOULD AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND
WATERWAYS WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOCATED.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DRY FUELS SHOULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  80  97  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  81 105  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  78 102  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  83  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  78 103  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  82  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 210838
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
338 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOWS DRIER AIR PUSHING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST. THIS DRIER AIRMASS /H9 AND ABOVE/ IS PROG TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MOST OF TODAY. EARLY MORNING STRATUS /DUE IN PART TO A
STRONG SRLY LLJ THIS MORNING/ SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY MID
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES TODAY AND COMBINATION OF HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES REACHING 110 OR
GREATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUS...A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR VICTORIA COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY AS EARLY
MORNING LLJ MOMENTUM TRANSFERS TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND AS STRONG
AFTERNOON THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS. COMBINATION OF DIURNAL MIXING
AND STRONGER WIND SPEEDS HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING WITH MORE DETAILS INCLUDED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100
DEGREES OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND MIN TEMPS NEAR 80.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES
REQUIRED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OCCURS...AND WITH WINDS DECREASING...POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE INITIALLY
LIMITED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO FEEL NO NEED TO ADD
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. RESPECTABLE MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION REALLY
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN A VERY WEAK TUTT MOVES INLAND
OR AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE COAST. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE
BETTER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND NEAR
SURFACE WINDS NOT THAT STRONG. ECMWF HAS COME IN WETTER FOR THE 00Z
THAN IT WAS FOR THE 12Z RUN...SO THIS ADDS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TO
RAINFALL FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. STILL...WILL ONLY GO WITH 20 POPS
SINCE IT IS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AND MOISTURE FIELDS
COULD BECOME DRIER AGAIN. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES...MOISTURE FIELDS AND WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&

.MARINE...STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN COASTAL AND INLAND LOCATIONS WHICH SHOULD AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND
WATERWAYS WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOCATED.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DRY FUELS SHOULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  80  97  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  81 105  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  78 102  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  83  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  78 103  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  82  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 210838
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
338 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOWS DRIER AIR PUSHING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST. THIS DRIER AIRMASS /H9 AND ABOVE/ IS PROG TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MOST OF TODAY. EARLY MORNING STRATUS /DUE IN PART TO A
STRONG SRLY LLJ THIS MORNING/ SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY MID
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES TODAY AND COMBINATION OF HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES REACHING 110 OR
GREATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUS...A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR VICTORIA COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY AS EARLY
MORNING LLJ MOMENTUM TRANSFERS TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND AS STRONG
AFTERNOON THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS. COMBINATION OF DIURNAL MIXING
AND STRONGER WIND SPEEDS HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING WITH MORE DETAILS INCLUDED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100
DEGREES OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND MIN TEMPS NEAR 80.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES
REQUIRED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OCCURS...AND WITH WINDS DECREASING...POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE INITIALLY
LIMITED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO FEEL NO NEED TO ADD
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. RESPECTABLE MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION REALLY
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN A VERY WEAK TUTT MOVES INLAND
OR AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE COAST. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE
BETTER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND NEAR
SURFACE WINDS NOT THAT STRONG. ECMWF HAS COME IN WETTER FOR THE 00Z
THAN IT WAS FOR THE 12Z RUN...SO THIS ADDS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TO
RAINFALL FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. STILL...WILL ONLY GO WITH 20 POPS
SINCE IT IS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AND MOISTURE FIELDS
COULD BECOME DRIER AGAIN. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES...MOISTURE FIELDS AND WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&

.MARINE...STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN COASTAL AND INLAND LOCATIONS WHICH SHOULD AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND
WATERWAYS WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOCATED.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DRY FUELS SHOULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  80  97  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  81 105  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  78 102  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  83  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  78 103  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  82  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 210838
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
338 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOWS DRIER AIR PUSHING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST. THIS DRIER AIRMASS /H9 AND ABOVE/ IS PROG TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MOST OF TODAY. EARLY MORNING STRATUS /DUE IN PART TO A
STRONG SRLY LLJ THIS MORNING/ SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY MID
MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES TODAY AND COMBINATION OF HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES REACHING 110 OR
GREATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUS...A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR VICTORIA COUNTY AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY AS EARLY
MORNING LLJ MOMENTUM TRANSFERS TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND AS STRONG
AFTERNOON THERMAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS. COMBINATION OF DIURNAL MIXING
AND STRONGER WIND SPEEDS HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG
WARNING WITH MORE DETAILS INCLUDED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 100
DEGREES OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND MIN TEMPS NEAR 80.
&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES
REQUIRED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OCCURS...AND WITH WINDS DECREASING...POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE INITIALLY
LIMITED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO FEEL NO NEED TO ADD
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. RESPECTABLE MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION REALLY
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN A VERY WEAK TUTT MOVES INLAND
OR AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE COAST. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE
BETTER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND NEAR
SURFACE WINDS NOT THAT STRONG. ECMWF HAS COME IN WETTER FOR THE 00Z
THAN IT WAS FOR THE 12Z RUN...SO THIS ADDS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TO
RAINFALL FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. STILL...WILL ONLY GO WITH 20 POPS
SINCE IT IS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST AND MOISTURE FIELDS
COULD BECOME DRIER AGAIN. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES...MOISTURE FIELDS AND WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&

.MARINE...STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN COASTAL AND INLAND LOCATIONS WHICH SHOULD AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND
WATERWAYS WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LOCATED.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE UPGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND DRY FUELS SHOULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  80  97  77  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA         101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  81 105  79 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE            102  78 102  76 100  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  83  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          103  78 103  75 102  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE       101  79 100  77  99  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       94  82  94  82  93  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KMAF 210553
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1253 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

KMAF radar shows the LLJ has redeveloped tonight, although a bit
weaker than last night, w/~25 kts of return flow overhead. This
return flow will continue next 24 hours, w/a stronger LLJ forecast
to redevelop near the end of the forecast period. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field again by late morning,
w/bases 4-8 kft agl. VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours.
Sfc trough is forecast to shift WNW later today, as will the
chances for convection. We`ll insert a mention at KCNM, which
models suggest wil have the best chances later today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Ongoing evening thunderstorms will complicate TAF forecast through
at least 02z... with TEMPO groups included at KMAF, KFST, and KPEQ
for periods of MVFR conditions. Thunderstorm outflow winds will
create gusty and erratic conditions near the aforementioned
terminals. Anticipate convection to wane with loss of daytime
heating, but will amend as necessary based on trends. Otherwise,
mainly VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period
with the lone exception being a window for MVFR ceilings at KMAF
between 12-14z. South to southeasterly winds around 10 kts will
increase mid-morning to include gusts around 20 kts in response to
a surface trough along the Texas/New Mexico border. Thunderstorms
will be possible again Thursday afternoon/evening, but look to
remain west of the terminals.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern coast of
California with an upper ridge over the Gulf coast states.  This is
resulting in southwest flow over far West Texas and southeast New
Mexico which is bringing in mid-level subtropical moisture.  The
increase in moisture along with an increase in omega values along
and south of the Davis Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across mainly the western half of the CWA this
afternoon.  Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible today
across parts of the Permian Basin with CAPE values around or above
1,000 J/kg.  Bulk shear values will be low across the whole area so
not expecting widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  Will not issue a Flash
Flood Watch at this time due to QPF amounts not being high enough to
warrant one but will continue to mention flooding threat in HWO.
The PWAT value on the 12z MAF sounding was 1.39 which would support
heavy rain.  High temperatures today will be near normal and similar
to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and western portions of the CWA through
the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern extent of
the precipitation will depend on the strength and placement of the
upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of next week, an upper
trough will move over the Northern Plains which which will cause the
upper ridge to shift eastward and weaken over the CWA.  Temperatures
will not change too much through the forecast period and should
remain near normal despite the presence of a surface trough across
eastern New Mexico and West Texas.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 210553
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1253 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

KMAF radar shows the LLJ has redeveloped tonight, although a bit
weaker than last night, w/~25 kts of return flow overhead. This
return flow will continue next 24 hours, w/a stronger LLJ forecast
to redevelop near the end of the forecast period. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field again by late morning,
w/bases 4-8 kft agl. VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours.
Sfc trough is forecast to shift WNW later today, as will the
chances for convection. We`ll insert a mention at KCNM, which
models suggest wil have the best chances later today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Ongoing evening thunderstorms will complicate TAF forecast through
at least 02z... with TEMPO groups included at KMAF, KFST, and KPEQ
for periods of MVFR conditions. Thunderstorm outflow winds will
create gusty and erratic conditions near the aforementioned
terminals. Anticipate convection to wane with loss of daytime
heating, but will amend as necessary based on trends. Otherwise,
mainly VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period
with the lone exception being a window for MVFR ceilings at KMAF
between 12-14z. South to southeasterly winds around 10 kts will
increase mid-morning to include gusts around 20 kts in response to
a surface trough along the Texas/New Mexico border. Thunderstorms
will be possible again Thursday afternoon/evening, but look to
remain west of the terminals.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, there is an upper low over the southern coast of
California with an upper ridge over the Gulf coast states.  This is
resulting in southwest flow over far West Texas and southeast New
Mexico which is bringing in mid-level subtropical moisture.  The
increase in moisture along with an increase in omega values along
and south of the Davis Mountains is contributing to showers and
thunderstorms across mainly the western half of the CWA this
afternoon.  Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible today
across parts of the Permian Basin with CAPE values around or above
1,000 J/kg.  Bulk shear values will be low across the whole area so
not expecting widespread severe development.  Upper level winds are
weak so storms will not likely have much movement which may result
in locally heavy rain and flash flooding.  Will not issue a Flash
Flood Watch at this time due to QPF amounts not being high enough to
warrant one but will continue to mention flooding threat in HWO.
The PWAT value on the 12z MAF sounding was 1.39 which would support
heavy rain.  High temperatures today will be near normal and similar
to yesterday.

After today, the upper low over California will move eastward as an
upper trough moves over the Pacific Northwest.  The upper ridge over
the southern states will begin to build which will keep the area on
the western edge of the ridge.  This will allow for moisture to keep
streaming into western portions of the CWA and for shortwaves to
move over the region.  This will result in a chance for convection
across the higher terrain and western portions of the CWA through
the forecast period.  High temperatures and the eastern extent of
the precipitation will depend on the strength and placement of the
upper ridge.  During the early to middle part of next week, an upper
trough will move over the Northern Plains which which will cause the
upper ridge to shift eastward and weaken over the CWA.  Temperatures
will not change too much through the forecast period and should
remain near normal despite the presence of a surface trough across
eastern New Mexico and West Texas.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 210542 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH VFR
PREVAILING FROM MID MRNG THRU REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. STRONG SRLY LLJ AROUND 40 KTS WILL AID IN STRATUS
DVLPMNT AROUND 2 KFT ACROSS MUCH OF S TX TONIGHT. HAVE A MIXTURE
OF SCT TO BKN CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS THRU MID MRNG THURS. DRIER
AIRMASS /XCPT AT SFC/ IS XPCTD TO BUILD INTO THE REGION DRNG THE
DAY THURS RESULTING IN LESS CLOUD COVER AND THUS VFR PREVAILING.
GUSTY SRLY WINDS REST OF TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
INTENSITY BY SUNRISE /LIGHTEST AT KVCT AND STRONGEST AT KLRD/ AND
NON CONVECTIVE LLWS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT DUE TO
STRENGTH OF LLJ JUST ABOVE THE SFC. LLJ WILL QUICKLY MIX DOWN
BEGINNING AROUND MID MRNG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS LIKELY THRU EARLY EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  97  80  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79 100  78 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            82 105  81 105  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             78 102  78 101  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          83  94  82  93  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 103  77 103  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        79  99  78 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  93  81  93  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 210542 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1242 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH VFR
PREVAILING FROM MID MRNG THRU REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. STRONG SRLY LLJ AROUND 40 KTS WILL AID IN STRATUS
DVLPMNT AROUND 2 KFT ACROSS MUCH OF S TX TONIGHT. HAVE A MIXTURE
OF SCT TO BKN CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS THRU MID MRNG THURS. DRIER
AIRMASS /XCPT AT SFC/ IS XPCTD TO BUILD INTO THE REGION DRNG THE
DAY THURS RESULTING IN LESS CLOUD COVER AND THUS VFR PREVAILING.
GUSTY SRLY WINDS REST OF TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
INTENSITY BY SUNRISE /LIGHTEST AT KVCT AND STRONGEST AT KLRD/ AND
NON CONVECTIVE LLWS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS FOR TONIGHT DUE TO
STRENGTH OF LLJ JUST ABOVE THE SFC. LLJ WILL QUICKLY MIX DOWN
BEGINNING AROUND MID MRNG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS LIKELY THRU EARLY EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  97  80  97  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79 100  78 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            82 105  81 105  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             78 102  78 101  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          83  94  82  93  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           78 103  77 103  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        79  99  78 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  93  81  93  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LA SALLE...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KBRO 210528 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS REMAINS VALID...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT AN
OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY...PRIMARILY AS A BREAK
BETWEEN TROPICAL MOISTURE EPISODES. NONETHELESS...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE...THOUGH THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN GULF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPSTREAM LOWER PRESSURE
WILL KEEP STRONGER SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLAY AND WILL KEEP ANY
MID DAY SHOWERS ON THE DIMINUTIVE SIDE AND MOVING QUICKLY INLAND.
EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN...PARTLY CLOUDY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS SKIES CLEAR FROM EAST
TO WEST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2500
OR 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
TOMORROW...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH BREEZY WINDS AND RISING CLOUD
DECKS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WATERS KEEPING A BREEZY
SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. LATEST
WATER VAPOR AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK TROPICAL LOW IS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND THE GULF WATERS WHERE PWATS OR BETTER
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE CHANCES OF RAIN
LOWER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WITH 1000 TO 500 MB RH VALUES LOWERING TO 30 PERCENT
LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN SO DECIDED TO INCREASE
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WEST OF HWY 281. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWER WINDS BETWEEN 10
TO 15 MPH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT...BREEZY/WINDY FRIDAY...PATTERN SHIFTS TO SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND LIGHTER WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT AVAILABLE
MOISTURE MARGINAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS
IT IS INFLUENCED BY ADVANCING TROUGHING/JET MAXES OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US. THE SURFACE REFLECTION...IN THE FORM OF A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND WEAK LEE AND
THERMAL TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHOULD HOWEVER GENERALLY STAY IN PLACE
FOR FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH HOT TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP
LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS WILL THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
THAT SHOULD KEEP THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM GETTING A STRONGHOLD.

SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE RETREATED A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE ELONGATED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS BASICALLY THE ENTIRE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH WILL PROBABLY PULL TEMPERATURES DOWN A
BIT AND MAY ALLOW ENOUGH OF A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY TO GET SETUP TO
SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS AND KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALONG
THE 77 CORRIDOR. 850-700MB MOISTURE REMAINS PRETTY MARGINAL HOWEVER
AND THIS SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LIMITED. THE LONG
EASTERLY FETCH MAY GENERATE A LITTLE BIT OF LONG PERIOD SWELL BUT
THE DURATION AND INTENSITY APPEAR TOO WEAK FOR COASTAL RUN UP/HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES.

SUNDAY FEATURES A LITTLE BIT BETTER AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS THE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BECOMES A BIT WEAKER. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR A STRONGER SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE PROFILES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AND
CONTINUED THE SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS
TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE VALLEY. AGAIN MOISTURE AND THE THERMAL
PROFILE IS MARGINAL AND COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LOOK LOW AT THE
MOMENT.

MONDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TUTT LIKE LOW APPEARS ALONG THE WESTERN
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. THIS APPEARS TO BE PARTIALLY INFLUENCED BY THE
OUTFLOW OF EPAC CYCLONE LOWELL AND A YET TO FORM STORM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THAT FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE
ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER HOWEVER BUT SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY WORK WITH MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO
ACTIVATE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER A SIMILAR AREA TO MONDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SEE LITTLE LOCAL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH
RIDGING FAILING TO BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT NO REAL SURGE OF MOISTURE TO HELP TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE
OF THIS IN TERMS OF RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY IN TERMS OF THE HANDLING OF A MID
CONTINENT TROUGH THOUGH THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE BY WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED OPEN WAVE OVER THE
PLAINS WHERE THE ECMWF KEEPS A MORE CLOSED FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN
ROCKIES. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD PROBABLY INCREASE WINDS AGAIN AND
TEMPORARILY CUT OFF ANY TAP OF MOISTURE BUT LIKELY NOT BY
WEDNESDAY SO KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST. /68-JGG/

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE GULF WATERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER THE LAGUNA
MADRE THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT BUT WINDS
PICK UP AGAIN INTO THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE LAGUNA AND SCEC OVER THE NEARSHORE. THIS
IS DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN MOST OF THE
PREVIOUS WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.
OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS WINDS BECOME MORE MODERATE OUT
OF THE EAST AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST. SEAS SHOULD FALL FROM MODERATE
TO LOW BUT AT LEAST SOME LONGER PERIOD SWELL IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY AS AN EASTERLY FETCH DEVELOPS BEFORE BECOMING MORE LOCAL
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55






000
FXUS64 KFWD 210448 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1148 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE THIS EVENING
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT WILL ARRIVE AT
KACT AROUND 12-13Z. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ALSO BRINGS THE STRATUS
INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 14Z WITH BASES BETWEEN 2-3 KFT...HOWEVER
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STRATUS TO THE EAST OF THE
METROPLEX. WILL KEEP THE MVFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. THE
STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER AROUND 16-17Z WITH VFR
PREVAILING THE REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN
10-17 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25
KTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED SOUTHEAST
OF A TEMPLE TO CORSICANA TO QUITMAN LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DISSIPATED BY 8 PM. UPDATES WERE SENT OUT EARLIER TO
ADJUST THE HOURLY GRIDS.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/
A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
CONSIDERABLY LESS CONVECTION AROUND AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST
NOSES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND
MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA...BUT WILL HAVE SOME LOW
POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN
CASE A STORM OR TWO MOVES INTO THE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT BY THURSDAY BUT STILL BE
CENTERED EAST OF TEXAS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT IN COVERAGE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL
REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IS CLOSE...IT IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING TOO HOT. HIGHS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL
TYPICALLY BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
DOESNT APPEAR TO OCCUR UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY TUESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A PLUME OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NORTH OUT OF THE GULF ACROSS THE REGION. SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH MIDWEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN OR WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTH
OF BOTH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON ANY
POTENTIAL TRACK THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  98  77  99  77 /   5   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              77  99  77  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             74  95  72  98  74 /   5   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            77  97  76  98  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  97  75  98  75 /   5   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            77  97  76  98  78 /   5   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  98  74  97  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         77  97  76  97  74 /  10   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  99  75  97  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  99  73  99  73 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58





000
FXUS64 KFWD 210448 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1148 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE THIS EVENING
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT WILL ARRIVE AT
KACT AROUND 12-13Z. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ALSO BRINGS THE STRATUS
INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 14Z WITH BASES BETWEEN 2-3 KFT...HOWEVER
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STRATUS TO THE EAST OF THE
METROPLEX. WILL KEEP THE MVFR CIGS IN THE METROPLEX TAF SITES. THE
STRATUS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCATTER AROUND 16-17Z WITH VFR
PREVAILING THE REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN
10-17 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25
KTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED SOUTHEAST
OF A TEMPLE TO CORSICANA TO QUITMAN LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING DISSIPATED BY 8 PM. UPDATES WERE SENT OUT EARLIER TO
ADJUST THE HOURLY GRIDS.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/
A WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
CONSIDERABLY LESS CONVECTION AROUND AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST
NOSES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND
MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN OUT OF OUR AREA...BUT WILL HAVE SOME LOW
POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN
CASE A STORM OR TWO MOVES INTO THE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT BY THURSDAY BUT STILL BE
CENTERED EAST OF TEXAS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT IN COVERAGE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL
REMAIN DRY. WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IS CLOSE...IT IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING TOO HOT. HIGHS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL
TYPICALLY BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
DOESNT APPEAR TO OCCUR UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN A BIT BY TUESDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A PLUME OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NORTH OUT OF THE GULF ACROSS THE REGION. SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH MIDWEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN OR WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTH
OF BOTH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON ANY
POTENTIAL TRACK THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  98  77  99  77 /   5   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              77  99  77  98  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             74  95  72  98  74 /   5   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            77  97  76  98  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  97  75  98  75 /   5   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            77  97  76  98  78 /   5   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  98  74  97  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         77  97  76  97  74 /  10   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  99  75  97  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76  99  73  99  73 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/58






000
FXUS64 KAMA 210448
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1148 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE YET AT THIS TIME AS CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW. SSW WINDS WILL
NOT RELAX MUCH DURING THIS PERIOD.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT KDHT OVER THE NEXT HR...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD AFFECT TAF SITES LATE IN
THE PERIOD IE TMRW AFTEROON...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE HAS STARTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA...AND IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AMA CWA. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CO AND EASTERN NM HAS MAINTAINED BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS AND SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING IN ANY STORMS THAT FORM ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NM. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...HOT TEMPS WELL IN THE 90S WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS
SHOULD END LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THURSDAY...LEAVING THE PANHANDLES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEARBY AND STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING CAN RESULT IN STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. LIKE TODAY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND WIND SHEAR WILL
NEGATE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STILL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. DAILY LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL EXIST EVERY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY. THE MAIN LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH DETAILS IN THIS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. IF THIS
OCCURS THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE MONDAY. THE LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AROUND
MIDWEEK AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
CURRENTLY EXISTS ON IF THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH WELCOME COOL
DOWN AND AN UPTICK IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 210448
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1148 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE YET AT THIS TIME AS CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW. SSW WINDS WILL
NOT RELAX MUCH DURING THIS PERIOD.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT KDHT OVER THE NEXT HR...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD AFFECT TAF SITES LATE IN
THE PERIOD IE TMRW AFTEROON...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE HAS STARTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA...AND IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AMA CWA. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CO AND EASTERN NM HAS MAINTAINED BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS AND SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING IN ANY STORMS THAT FORM ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NM. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...HOT TEMPS WELL IN THE 90S WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS
SHOULD END LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THURSDAY...LEAVING THE PANHANDLES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEARBY AND STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING CAN RESULT IN STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. LIKE TODAY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND WIND SHEAR WILL
NEGATE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STILL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. DAILY LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL EXIST EVERY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY. THE MAIN LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH DETAILS IN THIS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. IF THIS
OCCURS THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE MONDAY. THE LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AROUND
MIDWEEK AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
CURRENTLY EXISTS ON IF THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH WELCOME COOL
DOWN AND AN UPTICK IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 210448
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1148 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE YET AT THIS TIME AS CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW. SSW WINDS WILL
NOT RELAX MUCH DURING THIS PERIOD.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT KDHT OVER THE NEXT HR...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD AFFECT TAF SITES LATE IN
THE PERIOD IE TMRW AFTEROON...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE HAS STARTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA...AND IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AMA CWA. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CO AND EASTERN NM HAS MAINTAINED BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS AND SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING IN ANY STORMS THAT FORM ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NM. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...HOT TEMPS WELL IN THE 90S WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS
SHOULD END LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THURSDAY...LEAVING THE PANHANDLES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEARBY AND STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING CAN RESULT IN STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. LIKE TODAY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND WIND SHEAR WILL
NEGATE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STILL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. DAILY LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL EXIST EVERY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY. THE MAIN LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH DETAILS IN THIS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. IF THIS
OCCURS THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE MONDAY. THE LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AROUND
MIDWEEK AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
CURRENTLY EXISTS ON IF THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH WELCOME COOL
DOWN AND AN UPTICK IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 210448
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1148 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE YET AT THIS TIME AS CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW. SSW WINDS WILL
NOT RELAX MUCH DURING THIS PERIOD.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

A FEW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT KDHT OVER THE NEXT HR...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD AFFECT TAF SITES LATE IN
THE PERIOD IE TMRW AFTEROON...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE HAS STARTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA...AND IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AMA CWA. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CO AND EASTERN NM HAS MAINTAINED BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS AND SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW WILL HELP TO BRING IN ANY STORMS THAT FORM ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NM. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...HOT TEMPS WELL IN THE 90S WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS
SHOULD END LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER MILD NIGHT FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THURSDAY...LEAVING THE PANHANDLES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE POSITION OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEARBY AND STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING CAN RESULT IN STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. LIKE TODAY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND WIND SHEAR WILL
NEGATE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STILL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE AREA REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND
MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. DAILY LOW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL EXIST EVERY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY. THE MAIN LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING ALTHOUGH DETAILS IN THIS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. IF THIS
OCCURS THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE MONDAY. THE LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AROUND
MIDWEEK AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
CURRENTLY EXISTS ON IF THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH WELCOME COOL
DOWN AND AN UPTICK IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/99





000
FXUS64 KEWX 210445 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1145 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. MODERATE
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KDRT AND DISSIPATE BY 07Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AROUND 3K FEET THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH MVFR CEILINGS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER 15Z. HAVE MAINTAINED THE TEMPO
GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KDRT FROM 13Z-15Z. BREEZY SE WINDS AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. AFTER 15Z EXPECT S/SE WINDS
TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS
DECREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATE REFLECTS THE ADDITION OF LOW CHANCE EVENING POPS OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...AS
INDICATED BY THE NAM AND SOME HIGHER RES MODELS OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS...WILL SPREAD NW TOWARD DRT THIS EVENING. THE 18Z
NAM HAD A DECENT DEPICTION OF QPF FOR THE EVENING STORMS THAT ARE
MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 90 SO FAR. THE NEWLY ARRIVED 00Z NAM SHOWS
LESS ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. WE ARE
EXPECTING THE DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL WINDS TO DISPERSE
SOME OF THE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...AND SHOW NO
MENTION OF CONVECTION PAST 06Z. SOME COSMETIC CHANGES WERE ALSO
MADE TO SKY CONDITION. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD END BY SUNSET OR
SHORTLY AFTER. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO IMPACT TERMINALS SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. VRF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
THEN LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP 08Z-09Z AT THE I-35 SITES WITH
MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z. KDRT COULD SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 13Z-15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z. AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD SE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.
AFTER SUNSET SHOULD LOOSE SOME OF THE GUSTS WITH PREVAILING WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z-08Z THEN DECREASING TO NEAR 10
KNOTS. AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...STRAY TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...COMING TO AN END AROUND SUNSET. WARM AND DRY ON
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS 103 TO 108 DEGREES ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD NORTHWEST...CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE EXPANSION OF THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS CONTINUE IN
THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE EAST OF I-35. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78 101  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76 101  75 101  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75 102  74 101  72 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  98  74  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  99  77  99  74 /  30  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  99  77  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74 100  74  99  71 /  20  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76 101  76 100  73 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78 101  78  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79 100  78 101  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 101  77 101  75 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99






000
FXUS64 KEWX 210445 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1145 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. MODERATE
S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KDRT AND DISSIPATE BY 07Z. SCATTERED CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AROUND 3K FEET THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF VFR BEFORE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH MVFR CEILINGS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AFTER 15Z. HAVE MAINTAINED THE TEMPO
GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KDRT FROM 13Z-15Z. BREEZY SE WINDS AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. AFTER 15Z EXPECT S/SE WINDS
TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS
DECREASE AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATE REFLECTS THE ADDITION OF LOW CHANCE EVENING POPS OVER
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...AS
INDICATED BY THE NAM AND SOME HIGHER RES MODELS OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS...WILL SPREAD NW TOWARD DRT THIS EVENING. THE 18Z
NAM HAD A DECENT DEPICTION OF QPF FOR THE EVENING STORMS THAT ARE
MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 90 SO FAR. THE NEWLY ARRIVED 00Z NAM SHOWS
LESS ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING AND MORE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. WE ARE
EXPECTING THE DEEP LAYER OF LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL WINDS TO DISPERSE
SOME OF THE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...AND SHOW NO
MENTION OF CONVECTION PAST 06Z. SOME COSMETIC CHANGES WERE ALSO
MADE TO SKY CONDITION. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD END BY SUNSET OR
SHORTLY AFTER. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO IMPACT TERMINALS SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. VRF CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
THEN LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP 08Z-09Z AT THE I-35 SITES WITH
MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z. KDRT COULD SEE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS SO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 13Z-15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z. AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD SE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS.
AFTER SUNSET SHOULD LOOSE SOME OF THE GUSTS WITH PREVAILING WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z-08Z THEN DECREASING TO NEAR 10
KNOTS. AFTER 15Z S/SE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...STRAY TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...COMING TO AN END AROUND SUNSET. WARM AND DRY ON
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS 103 TO 108 DEGREES ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD NORTHWEST...CENTERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE EXPANSION OF THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAX AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX READINGS CONTINUE IN
THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE EAST OF I-35. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78 101  77 101  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76 101  75 101  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75 102  74 101  72 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  98  74  97  72 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  99  77  99  74 /  30  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  99  77  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74 100  74  99  71 /  20  -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76 101  76 100  73 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78 101  78  99  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79 100  78 101  76 /  10  -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 101  77 101  75 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 210440
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED LONGER THAN EXPECTED /WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS/ BUT HAVE RECENTLY RELENTED WITH ONLY SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NOW LINGERING BETWEEN KLBB AND KCDS. WE EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
RELATIVELY MOIST WINDS BLOWING OUT OF THE DIMINISHING ACTIVITY
COULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR SUB-VFR CIGS AT KLBB...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. OUTSIDE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY MODE THIS TAF CYCLE.
THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH WOULD BRING THE RISK OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE OF A
DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN BY MID-MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE SENT TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS...SPECIFICALLY
TO PUSH SCATTERED MENTION EWD TO THE ERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH NEWD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN ALONG SURFACE TROUGH
RUNNING ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES...WITH A FEW ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW
UP ACROSS PARMER COUNTY AT 230 CDT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME BENDING INTO WEST TEXAS...WITH A COUPLE
WEAK RIPPLES APPARENT MAINLY OVER NM...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR ASCENT OVER WTX. PRECIP H2O VALUES WITHIN THE PLUME ARE NOT
QUITE AS ROBUST AS PREVIOUS INDICATIONS...ABOUT 1.2 INCHES PER RUC
ANALYSIS...WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
STILL...LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RELATIVELY SLOW CELL
MOTION AND SOME INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED BY EARLY
EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE STORMS GIVEN ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE.

WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FARTHER EAST...MAINLY WEST OF I-27. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OFF
THE CAPROCK BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO SLIM TO MENTION IN THE FCST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID-EVENING OR SO WITH ANOTHER
MILD AND QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON THURSDAY AS THE CWA
WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE
SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER WEST ON THU...PERHAPS JUST
WEST OF THE STATE LINE...WHICH IN TURN MAY TAKE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION CHANCES TO THE WEST AS WELL.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF
THE FEATURES WE WILL KEEP A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH LOW CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR THE STATE LINE. HIGH TEMPS
THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MID 90S ON THE CAP...WITH MID TO UPPER
90S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
A WEAK SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION IS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN TROUGHING
IN THE WEST AND STOUT RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
THE MOST DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY INVOLVES THE PLACEMENT AND
DEPTH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THIS OTHERWISE BENIGN SWLY FLOW
AND NAMELY HOW WELL THIS TRANSLATES INTO PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER...A SUBTLE UPTICK IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS AN
OPEN WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SPREADS
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES. OF INTEREST...WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SOURCING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM LOWELL...SO THE INGREDIENTS MAY BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A
BONAFIDE UNSETTLED PERIOD BY LATE FRIDAY FOR AREAS NEAR THE TX-NM
BORDER. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY BULLISH WITH QPF ON FRI...WE
FEEL THE AFOREMENTIONED DETAILS WARRANT A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
IN OUR W-NWRN COUNTIES.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE A GRADUAL EASTERLY DISPLACEMENT TO
THE LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...PERHAPS POISED MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO OUR NERN ZONES AKIN TO THE
GFS. OPTED TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TRANSITION...BUT THE PARENT MOISTURE PLUME MAY
VERY WELL BECOME EXHAUSTED BY THIS TIME AND REDUCED TO A SHALLOW
AND INSIGNIFICANT DEPTH.

NEXT WEEK STILL HOLDS SOME PROMISE FOR A COLD FROPA CONTINGENT ON
THE BEHAVIOR OF TROUGHING SHOWN TO OCCUPY THE NRN ROCKIES SOUTH
TO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT
IN THE NRN PLAINS IS STILL FAVORED TO OCCUR LATE THIS WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE 49TH
PARALLEL...THOUGH RECENT MODELS NOW DELAY THIS FROPA LOCALLY BY
SOME 24 TO 48 HOURS GIVEN SECONDARY TROUGHING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY SLOW THE FRONT. MUCH DOUBT IS
THEREFORE CAST ON ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN POTENTIAL BEFORE WEDNESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ANY FURTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  66  90  65 /  30  30  20  30  30
TULIA         66  92  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  90  68  90  67 /  10  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     67  90  67  92  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       70  93  69  93  68 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   65  92  67  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  92  68  93  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     72  97  74  98  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  94  69  96  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  97  72  97  70 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23






000
FXUS64 KLUB 210440
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED LONGER THAN EXPECTED /WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS/ BUT HAVE RECENTLY RELENTED WITH ONLY SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NOW LINGERING BETWEEN KLBB AND KCDS. WE EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
RELATIVELY MOIST WINDS BLOWING OUT OF THE DIMINISHING ACTIVITY
COULD PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR SUB-VFR CIGS AT KLBB...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. OUTSIDE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY MODE THIS TAF CYCLE.
THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH WOULD BRING THE RISK OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE OF A
DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN BY MID-MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE SENT TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS...SPECIFICALLY
TO PUSH SCATTERED MENTION EWD TO THE ERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH NEWD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND THICKEN ALONG SURFACE TROUGH
RUNNING ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES...WITH A FEW ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW
UP ACROSS PARMER COUNTY AT 230 CDT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME BENDING INTO WEST TEXAS...WITH A COUPLE
WEAK RIPPLES APPARENT MAINLY OVER NM...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
MINOR ASCENT OVER WTX. PRECIP H2O VALUES WITHIN THE PLUME ARE NOT
QUITE AS ROBUST AS PREVIOUS INDICATIONS...ABOUT 1.2 INCHES PER RUC
ANALYSIS...WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
STILL...LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RELATIVELY SLOW CELL
MOTION AND SOME INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED BY EARLY
EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE STORMS GIVEN ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE.

WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FARTHER EAST...MAINLY WEST OF I-27. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO OFF
THE CAPROCK BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO SLIM TO MENTION IN THE FCST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID-EVENING OR SO WITH ANOTHER
MILD AND QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON THURSDAY AS THE CWA
WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE
SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER WEST ON THU...PERHAPS JUST
WEST OF THE STATE LINE...WHICH IN TURN MAY TAKE THE BEST CONVERGENCE
AND AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION CHANCES TO THE WEST AS WELL.
HOWEVER...WITH SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF
THE FEATURES WE WILL KEEP A BROAD AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE
CAPROCK...WITH LOW CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR THE STATE LINE. HIGH TEMPS
THU ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MID 90S ON THE CAP...WITH MID TO UPPER
90S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
A WEAK SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REGION IS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN TROUGHING
IN THE WEST AND STOUT RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
THE MOST DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY INVOLVES THE PLACEMENT AND
DEPTH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THIS OTHERWISE BENIGN SWLY FLOW
AND NAMELY HOW WELL THIS TRANSLATES INTO PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER...A SUBTLE UPTICK IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS AN
OPEN WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SPREADS
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES. OF INTEREST...WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS WAVE IS ALREADY SOURCING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM LOWELL...SO THE INGREDIENTS MAY BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A
BONAFIDE UNSETTLED PERIOD BY LATE FRIDAY FOR AREAS NEAR THE TX-NM
BORDER. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY BULLISH WITH QPF ON FRI...WE
FEEL THE AFOREMENTIONED DETAILS WARRANT A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIP
IN OUR W-NWRN COUNTIES.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO FEATURE A GRADUAL EASTERLY DISPLACEMENT TO
THE LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...PERHAPS POISED MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO OUR NERN ZONES AKIN TO THE
GFS. OPTED TO EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EWD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TRANSITION...BUT THE PARENT MOISTURE PLUME MAY
VERY WELL BECOME EXHAUSTED BY THIS TIME AND REDUCED TO A SHALLOW
AND INSIGNIFICANT DEPTH.

NEXT WEEK STILL HOLDS SOME PROMISE FOR A COLD FROPA CONTINGENT ON
THE BEHAVIOR OF TROUGHING SHOWN TO OCCUPY THE NRN ROCKIES SOUTH
TO THE FOUR CORNERS. THE STRONGEST SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THIS FRONT
IN THE NRN PLAINS IS STILL FAVORED TO OCCUR LATE THIS WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE 49TH
PARALLEL...THOUGH RECENT MODELS NOW DELAY THIS FROPA LOCALLY BY
SOME 24 TO 48 HOURS GIVEN SECONDARY TROUGHING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY SLOW THE FRONT. MUCH DOUBT IS
THEREFORE CAST ON ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN POTENTIAL BEFORE WEDNESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ANY FURTHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  66  90  65 /  30  30  20  30  30
TULIA         66  92  69  91  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  90  68  90  67 /  10  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     67  90  67  92  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       70  93  69  93  68 /  10  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   65  92  67  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  92  68  93  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     72  97  74  98  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  94  69  96  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  97  72  97  70 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23





000
FXUS64 KHGX 210438
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1138 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DURING THE
11 TO 13Z TIME PERIOD. KEPT VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT
GLS AS ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS AND SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COAST COULD KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH 16Z.
THE LATEST RADAR DOES SHOW SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF. MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FROM THE EAST. WHILE A FEW ISOLATED LATE AM THROUGH EARLY PM
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION WITHIN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
TOMORROW...LOWERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST SHOULD LEAD TO LESS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS EXPECTATION.

HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR THE COAST TOMORROW ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 105. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR. AREAWIDE NORTHERN-BASED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. A QUIET TAF PACKAGE IN RELATION
TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS EASTERN RIDGING IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD
AND SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW. THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
LIES IN ISOLATED SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE A LONE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...
BUT AM ANTICIPATING MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY. HIGHER
PWAT AIR MASS OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES RESIDING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF IS PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF MAINLY SCATTERED MARITIME SHOWERS
(VCSH IN KGLS). BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE 11 THROUGH
13Z HOUR...BUT SOME HUBS WILL FALL TO MVFR FOR LESS THAN AN HOUR
SO HAVE PLACED SOME TEMPO`S IN TO COVER THIS CHANCE OCCURRENCE. 31

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE APPEARS TO HAVE ARRIVED ACROSS SE TX
THIS AFTN (PER THE ONGOING CONVECTION INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS). DID EXTEND CHC POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE CURR-
ENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE GRIDS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS MODELS CONTINUE WITH FCST OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE EAST. POPS SHOULD BE GOING DOWN BUT LINGERING +2"PW AIR-
MASS COULD PRODUCE ISO ACTIVITY TOMORROW MORNING/AFTN. HOWEVER AS
RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...THE DRYING AIRMASS
WILL BE LESS SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY ISO STORMS ON/
NEAR THE SEABREEZE.

BUT THAT BEING SAID...GFS IS HINTING AT THE RETURN OF DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE (+2"PWS) SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. NOT TOO SURPRISED WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANGE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT MORE N/NE NEXT WEEK
AND WE GET MORE ON THE UNDERSIDE OF IT (I.E. A MORE OPEN GULF)...
THUS HERALDING THE RETURN OF SCT MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING GENERATED
PCPN. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP LOWER TEMPS DOWN (A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OR SO) NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH TOMORROW EVE. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  98  77  98  77 /  40  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  96  77  98  77 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  92  83  92  83 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KSJT 210432
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1130 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

NAM and GFS models are slightly more aggressive on MVFR stratus
and low level moisture return by morning, which looks good as dew
points in South Central Texas were 1 to 3 degrees higher than 24
hours ago. Went an hour or 2 earlier (compared to Thursday) for KSOA
and KJCT along the I-10 corridor and introduced a couple hours of
MVFR stratus at KSJT and KBBD mid morning. South winds will be gusty
by mid morning, with gusts to 26 KTS at KABI and KSJT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
Diurnal showers and thunderstorms continue across the South Plains
this evening, moving northeast from near Post to Matador. This
convection will continue to weak over the next hour or so and will
remain to the west of the CWA. Skies will remain mostly clear most
of the night, but low clouds are expected to develop along the
I-10 corridor, moving north into the southern Concho Valley and
Heartland by sunrise. Minor tweaks were made to the inherited
dewpoint, wind, and sky grids.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR stratus indicated to again develop in the Hill Country and
Lower Rio Grande Valley and move into the I-10 corridor toward
daybreak. The stratus should affect Sonora and Junction through
late morning, but should be brief, if it occurs, at San Angelo
and Brady. Lee trough will again bring south wind gusts to 26 KTS
at KABI and KSJT mid morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

The first dry day in several days across West Central Texas, with
showers and storms to the west across the Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin. Given the northeast movement of the storms, cant rule out
that a stray storm may wander into the western tip of Crockett
County and have added a mention of isolated storms out there for a
few hours tonight. Elsewhere, will keep the forecast dry for now.

Stratus made a run into the Northern Edwards Plateau this morning,
with models suggesting an even bigger area Thursday morning.
Increased cloud cover across the I-10 corridor from Ozona to
Junction for late tonight and early tomorrow. Otherwise, after
days of poor model performance for temperatures because of the
convection in the area, models seem to be in the ballpark today. A
slight temperature climb for Thursday is forecasted and that seems
reasonable. Not deviating too much from guidance.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

A benign weather pattern is forecast through early next week for
West Central Texas. An upper level ridge will remain centered
across the lower Mississippi Valley through early next week,
with its influence extending west into much of Texas. Temperatures
will remain near to slightly above normal through the period, with
the hottest temperatures across the eastern counties, closest to
the upper level ridge. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper
90s, with overnight lows in the 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop each afternoon along the periphery of the
ridge, mainly across West Texas and eastern New Mexico. At this
time, the influence of the ridge is forecast to dominate our
weather, with any convection remaining to our west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  97  72  95  72 /   0   0   5   0   0
San Angelo  74  95  72  96  71 /   0   0   5   0   0
Junction  74  94  74  95  71 /   0   5   0   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 210432
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1130 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

NAM and GFS models are slightly more aggressive on MVFR stratus
and low level moisture return by morning, which looks good as dew
points in South Central Texas were 1 to 3 degrees higher than 24
hours ago. Went an hour or 2 earlier (compared to Thursday) for KSOA
and KJCT along the I-10 corridor and introduced a couple hours of
MVFR stratus at KSJT and KBBD mid morning. South winds will be gusty
by mid morning, with gusts to 26 KTS at KABI and KSJT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
Diurnal showers and thunderstorms continue across the South Plains
this evening, moving northeast from near Post to Matador. This
convection will continue to weak over the next hour or so and will
remain to the west of the CWA. Skies will remain mostly clear most
of the night, but low clouds are expected to develop along the
I-10 corridor, moving north into the southern Concho Valley and
Heartland by sunrise. Minor tweaks were made to the inherited
dewpoint, wind, and sky grids.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR stratus indicated to again develop in the Hill Country and
Lower Rio Grande Valley and move into the I-10 corridor toward
daybreak. The stratus should affect Sonora and Junction through
late morning, but should be brief, if it occurs, at San Angelo
and Brady. Lee trough will again bring south wind gusts to 26 KTS
at KABI and KSJT mid morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

The first dry day in several days across West Central Texas, with
showers and storms to the west across the Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin. Given the northeast movement of the storms, cant rule out
that a stray storm may wander into the western tip of Crockett
County and have added a mention of isolated storms out there for a
few hours tonight. Elsewhere, will keep the forecast dry for now.

Stratus made a run into the Northern Edwards Plateau this morning,
with models suggesting an even bigger area Thursday morning.
Increased cloud cover across the I-10 corridor from Ozona to
Junction for late tonight and early tomorrow. Otherwise, after
days of poor model performance for temperatures because of the
convection in the area, models seem to be in the ballpark today. A
slight temperature climb for Thursday is forecasted and that seems
reasonable. Not deviating too much from guidance.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

A benign weather pattern is forecast through early next week for
West Central Texas. An upper level ridge will remain centered
across the lower Mississippi Valley through early next week,
with its influence extending west into much of Texas. Temperatures
will remain near to slightly above normal through the period, with
the hottest temperatures across the eastern counties, closest to
the upper level ridge. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper
90s, with overnight lows in the 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop each afternoon along the periphery of the
ridge, mainly across West Texas and eastern New Mexico. At this
time, the influence of the ridge is forecast to dominate our
weather, with any convection remaining to our west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  97  72  95  72 /   0   0   5   0   0
San Angelo  74  95  72  96  71 /   0   0   5   0   0
Junction  74  94  74  95  71 /   0   5   0   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 210432
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1130 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

NAM and GFS models are slightly more aggressive on MVFR stratus
and low level moisture return by morning, which looks good as dew
points in South Central Texas were 1 to 3 degrees higher than 24
hours ago. Went an hour or 2 earlier (compared to Thursday) for KSOA
and KJCT along the I-10 corridor and introduced a couple hours of
MVFR stratus at KSJT and KBBD mid morning. South winds will be gusty
by mid morning, with gusts to 26 KTS at KABI and KSJT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
Diurnal showers and thunderstorms continue across the South Plains
this evening, moving northeast from near Post to Matador. This
convection will continue to weak over the next hour or so and will
remain to the west of the CWA. Skies will remain mostly clear most
of the night, but low clouds are expected to develop along the
I-10 corridor, moving north into the southern Concho Valley and
Heartland by sunrise. Minor tweaks were made to the inherited
dewpoint, wind, and sky grids.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR stratus indicated to again develop in the Hill Country and
Lower Rio Grande Valley and move into the I-10 corridor toward
daybreak. The stratus should affect Sonora and Junction through
late morning, but should be brief, if it occurs, at San Angelo
and Brady. Lee trough will again bring south wind gusts to 26 KTS
at KABI and KSJT mid morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

The first dry day in several days across West Central Texas, with
showers and storms to the west across the Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin. Given the northeast movement of the storms, cant rule out
that a stray storm may wander into the western tip of Crockett
County and have added a mention of isolated storms out there for a
few hours tonight. Elsewhere, will keep the forecast dry for now.

Stratus made a run into the Northern Edwards Plateau this morning,
with models suggesting an even bigger area Thursday morning.
Increased cloud cover across the I-10 corridor from Ozona to
Junction for late tonight and early tomorrow. Otherwise, after
days of poor model performance for temperatures because of the
convection in the area, models seem to be in the ballpark today. A
slight temperature climb for Thursday is forecasted and that seems
reasonable. Not deviating too much from guidance.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

A benign weather pattern is forecast through early next week for
West Central Texas. An upper level ridge will remain centered
across the lower Mississippi Valley through early next week,
with its influence extending west into much of Texas. Temperatures
will remain near to slightly above normal through the period, with
the hottest temperatures across the eastern counties, closest to
the upper level ridge. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper
90s, with overnight lows in the 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop each afternoon along the periphery of the
ridge, mainly across West Texas and eastern New Mexico. At this
time, the influence of the ridge is forecast to dominate our
weather, with any convection remaining to our west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  97  72  95  72 /   0   0   5   0   0
San Angelo  74  95  72  96  71 /   0   0   5   0   0
Junction  74  94  74  95  71 /   0   5   0   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04







000
FXUS64 KSJT 210432
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1130 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

NAM and GFS models are slightly more aggressive on MVFR stratus
and low level moisture return by morning, which looks good as dew
points in South Central Texas were 1 to 3 degrees higher than 24
hours ago. Went an hour or 2 earlier (compared to Thursday) for KSOA
and KJCT along the I-10 corridor and introduced a couple hours of
MVFR stratus at KSJT and KBBD mid morning. South winds will be gusty
by mid morning, with gusts to 26 KTS at KABI and KSJT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
Diurnal showers and thunderstorms continue across the South Plains
this evening, moving northeast from near Post to Matador. This
convection will continue to weak over the next hour or so and will
remain to the west of the CWA. Skies will remain mostly clear most
of the night, but low clouds are expected to develop along the
I-10 corridor, moving north into the southern Concho Valley and
Heartland by sunrise. Minor tweaks were made to the inherited
dewpoint, wind, and sky grids.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR stratus indicated to again develop in the Hill Country and
Lower Rio Grande Valley and move into the I-10 corridor toward
daybreak. The stratus should affect Sonora and Junction through
late morning, but should be brief, if it occurs, at San Angelo
and Brady. Lee trough will again bring south wind gusts to 26 KTS
at KABI and KSJT mid morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

The first dry day in several days across West Central Texas, with
showers and storms to the west across the Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin. Given the northeast movement of the storms, cant rule out
that a stray storm may wander into the western tip of Crockett
County and have added a mention of isolated storms out there for a
few hours tonight. Elsewhere, will keep the forecast dry for now.

Stratus made a run into the Northern Edwards Plateau this morning,
with models suggesting an even bigger area Thursday morning.
Increased cloud cover across the I-10 corridor from Ozona to
Junction for late tonight and early tomorrow. Otherwise, after
days of poor model performance for temperatures because of the
convection in the area, models seem to be in the ballpark today. A
slight temperature climb for Thursday is forecasted and that seems
reasonable. Not deviating too much from guidance.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

A benign weather pattern is forecast through early next week for
West Central Texas. An upper level ridge will remain centered
across the lower Mississippi Valley through early next week,
with its influence extending west into much of Texas. Temperatures
will remain near to slightly above normal through the period, with
the hottest temperatures across the eastern counties, closest to
the upper level ridge. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper
90s, with overnight lows in the 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop each afternoon along the periphery of the
ridge, mainly across West Texas and eastern New Mexico. At this
time, the influence of the ridge is forecast to dominate our
weather, with any convection remaining to our west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  97  72  95  72 /   0   0   5   0   0
San Angelo  74  95  72  96  71 /   0   0   5   0   0
Junction  74  94  74  95  71 /   0   5   0   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

04







000
FXUS64 KHGX 210302
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
TOMORROW...LOWERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST SHOULD LEAD TO LESS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS EXPECTATION.

HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR THE COAST TOMORROW ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 105. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR. AREAWIDE NORTHERN-BASED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. A QUIET TAF PACKAGE IN RELATION
TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS EASTERN RIDGING IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD
AND SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW. THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
LIES IN ISOLATED SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE A LONE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...
BUT AM ANTICIPATING MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY. HIGHER
PWAT AIR MASS OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES RESIDING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF IS PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF MAINLY SCATTERED MARITIME SHOWERS
(VCSH IN KGLS). BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE 11 THROUGH
13Z HOUR...BUT SOME HUBS WILL FALL TO MVFR FOR LESS THAN AN HOUR
SO HAVE PLACED SOME TEMPO`S IN TO COVER THIS CHANCE OCCURRENCE. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE APPEARS TO HAVE ARRIVED ACROSS SE TX
THIS AFTN (PER THE ONGOING CONVECTION INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS). DID EXTEND CHC POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE CURR-
ENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE GRIDS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS MODELS CONTINUE WITH FCST OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE EAST. POPS SHOULD BE GOING DOWN BUT LINGERING +2"PW AIR-
MASS COULD PRODUCE ISO ACTIVITY TOMORROW MORNING/AFTN. HOWEVER AS
RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...THE DRYING AIRMASS
WILL BE LESS SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY ISO STORMS ON/
NEAR THE SEABREEZE.

BUT THAT BEING SAID...GFS IS HINTING AT THE RETURN OF DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE (+2"PWS) SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. NOT TOO SURPRISED WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANGE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT MORE N/NE NEXT WEEK
AND WE GET MORE ON THE UNDERSIDE OF IT (I.E. A MORE OPEN GULF)...
THUS HERALDING THE RETURN OF SCT MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING GENERATED
PCPN. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP LOWER TEMPS DOWN (A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OR SO) NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH TOMORROW EVE. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  98  77  98  77 /  40  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  96  77  98  77 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  92  83  92  83 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 210302
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
TOMORROW...LOWERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST SHOULD LEAD TO LESS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS EXPECTATION.

HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR THE COAST TOMORROW ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 105. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR. AREAWIDE NORTHERN-BASED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. A QUIET TAF PACKAGE IN RELATION
TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS EASTERN RIDGING IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD
AND SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW. THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
LIES IN ISOLATED SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE A LONE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...
BUT AM ANTICIPATING MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY. HIGHER
PWAT AIR MASS OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES RESIDING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF IS PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF MAINLY SCATTERED MARITIME SHOWERS
(VCSH IN KGLS). BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE 11 THROUGH
13Z HOUR...BUT SOME HUBS WILL FALL TO MVFR FOR LESS THAN AN HOUR
SO HAVE PLACED SOME TEMPO`S IN TO COVER THIS CHANCE OCCURRENCE. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE APPEARS TO HAVE ARRIVED ACROSS SE TX
THIS AFTN (PER THE ONGOING CONVECTION INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS). DID EXTEND CHC POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE CURR-
ENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE GRIDS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS MODELS CONTINUE WITH FCST OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
FROM THE EAST. POPS SHOULD BE GOING DOWN BUT LINGERING +2"PW AIR-
MASS COULD PRODUCE ISO ACTIVITY TOMORROW MORNING/AFTN. HOWEVER AS
RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...THE DRYING AIRMASS
WILL BE LESS SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN VERY ISO STORMS ON/
NEAR THE SEABREEZE.

BUT THAT BEING SAID...GFS IS HINTING AT THE RETURN OF DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE (+2"PWS) SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. NOT TOO SURPRISED WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANGE AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT MORE N/NE NEXT WEEK
AND WE GET MORE ON THE UNDERSIDE OF IT (I.E. A MORE OPEN GULF)...
THUS HERALDING THE RETURN OF SCT MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING GENERATED
PCPN. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP LOWER TEMPS DOWN (A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OR SO) NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH TOMORROW EVE. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  98  77  98  77 /  40  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  96  77  98  77 /  20  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            84  92  83  92  83 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 210302
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
TOMORROW...LOWERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST SHOULD LEAD TO LESS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS EXPECTATION.

HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR THE COAST TOMORROW ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 105. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR. AREAWIDE NORTHERN-BASED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. A QUIET TAF PACKAGE IN RELATION
TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS EASTERN RIDGING IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD
AND SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW. THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
LIES IN ISOLATED SHOWERS...WITH MAYBE A LONE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...
BUT AM ANTICIPATING MUCH LESS AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY. HIGHER
PWAT AIR MASS OF GREATER THAN TWO INCHES RESIDING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF IS PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF MAINLY SCATTERED MARITIME SHOWERS
(VCSH IN KGLS). BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE 11 THROUGH
13Z HOUR...BUT SOME HUBS WILL FALL TO MVFR FOR LESS THAN AN HOUR
SO HAVE PLACED SOME TEMPO`S IN TO COVER THIS CHANCE OCCURRENCE. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE APPEARS TO HAVE ARRIVED ACROSS SE TX
THIS AFTN (PER THE ONGOING CONVECTION INLAND AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS). DID EXTEND CHC POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE CURR-
ENT TRENDS. OTHERWIS