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000
FXUS64 KBRO 132039
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
239 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES. LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN INTERACTING WITH BROAD 1036 HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EAST. THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FILTER GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH BKN TO OVC EXPECTED EARLY
IN THE MORNING HOURS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE PATCHY FOG BUT WILL
NOT BE AS SPREAD AS EARLY THIS MORNING SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO LOW 50 ACROSS THE CWA.

INTO SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHENS BUT IT
WILL MAINLY CRUISE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS DEEPER MOISTURE STAYS
TOWARDS THE EAST. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE SO LIMITED ACROSS THE
ZONES THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE SOUTHEAST
FLOW REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD STRENGTHENING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING
30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST INLAND FROM
THE THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID TO LOW
80S ACROSS THE WEST AND 70S NEAR THE COAST WITH SCT CLOUD DECK.

VALENTINES NIGHT...AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG THE WINDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY EARLY IN THE EVENING HOURS GRADUALLY
LOWERING INTO THE NIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 TO 78 DEGREES WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER IN
THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MID LEVEL RIDGE. OCCASIONAL NORTHERN JET STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO FLOW THROUGH THE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE
AND EAST COAST TROUGH PATTERN THREATENING THE REGION WITH WEAK
COLD FRONTS MONDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, A DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR US WITH NO DEVIATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH SOME PHASE/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF A SHORTWAVE
NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY BIG CHANGES OR ADD ANY
PRECIPIATION. THE DRIER THAN NORMAL ATMOSPHERE WITH A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOULD
GUARANTEE A PERSISTENT FORECAST AND HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN TODAY
AND INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SCEC AND SCA FOR WINDS MAINLY AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SEAS WILL BUILD WITH INCREASING WIND REACHING 4 TO 5 FEET.


MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO
INTERACT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS MAINTAIN A MORE THAN FAVORABLE WIND AND SEA REGIME THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN NEXT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH ONLY MARGINALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  61  77  64  80 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          59  78  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            57  81  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              58  83  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      56  85  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   63  73  64  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59



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000
FXUS64 KCRP 132039
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
239 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
THE FOG POTENTIAL...MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
FARTHER WEST. A BETTER LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TONIGHT (FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...IF EVEN STILL PRESENT...WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT)...AND
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING AND THUS FOG WILL BE HARDER TO
COME BY. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE OVER THE VICTORIA AREA AND
HAVE GONE WITH AREAS OF FOG THERE. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...PATCHY
AT BEST AND THINK IT WILL MAINLY BE STATO-CU/STRATUS WHICH WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP LATE. ALSO...SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE COMING IN
FROM MEXICO. THUS...LESS FOG OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD
NOT BE AS COLD OVERNIGHT AS THIS MORNING...WITH 50S MOST AREAS AND
NEAR/AROUND 60 TOWARD THE COAST. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY OUT TO THE WEST WHERE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE FORECAST
(COOLER NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER). FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWFA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WITH
DIMINISHING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...THINK THAT THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR FOG WILL OCCUR (AND MORE WIDESPREAD). TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S INLAND...NEAR OR LOWER 60S COAST. NO RAIN
IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UPPER SUPPORT FORECAST TO
COME DOWN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WHICH WILL
MAINLY IMPACT THE NORTHEASTERN CWFA. FINALLY...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR A POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH TEXAS FOR SUNDAY...AS WARM TEMPERATURES
AND MODERATE DEW POINTS BRING RH VALUES IN THE 30S FOR THE
AFTERNOON. A SMALL PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN INLAND COASTAL
COUNTIES SHOW CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE HOURS...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME SINCE IT IS BORDERLINE AND
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES RISE AND DEW POINTS FALL (IF
THEY EVEN DO) DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAYS
AND GULF WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. DEW POINTS IN THE GULF
WATERS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WITH SHELF WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALREADY...THINK SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT QUITE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...COULD HAVE SOME FOG WAFT
OVER THE BAYS/WATERWAYS TOWARD MONDAY MORNING AS DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES CONVERGE WITH THE AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK FRONT WILL CLIP THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA MONDAY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.  BEYOND THAT DEEP RIDGING WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.  TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE OR LESS ONSHORE AT TIMES BUT OVERALL NUMBERS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST MEX GUIDANCE LOOK FINE.  PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
MORNING FOG AS WELL...ESPLY TUE AND WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    58  81  60  82  56  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          54  78  55  77  50  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  85  56  85  56  /   0   0   0  10   0
ALICE             54  85  57  85  54  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          59  76  61  76  57  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           56  85  53  84  52  /   0   0   0  10   0
KINGSVILLE        56  83  58  80  55  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       62  78  62  75  58  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM



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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 132036
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
136 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE BORDERLAND FOR ANOTHER WEEK TO COME. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MANAGE TO DROP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK...HOWEVER READINGS OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
FLATTENED A BIT ALLOWING FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO PUSH HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS THE UPPER
FLOW WILL AGAIN AMPLIFY WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGH TO
THE EAST. AS THIS HAPPENS OUR FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TO DROP
ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT COOLING TO TAKE PLACE BY MONDAY...HOWEVER
READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOOKING AT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A GOOD
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY THE MODELS TEND TO DIVERGE IN THE
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER THEY ALL AGREE THAT OUR SPELL OF DRY AND MILD
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY PRECIP CHANCES
HOLDING OFF UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT A STRONGER TROUGH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEK. AS SUCH WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SFC WINDS FOR THURSDAY
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO GATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 14/00Z-15/00Z...
A WEAK DRY DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL DROP INTO NEW
MEXICO FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA
ATTM. P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. SFC WINDS TIL 09Z SW-NW 5-10 KTS
THEN NW- NE 6-12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND OCNL HIGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BE OBSERVED DURING THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 42  74  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           40  72  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              37  72  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              38  71  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              30  50  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   38  71  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             36  68  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  34  74  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               33  72  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      43  74  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               36  74  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            41  75  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              42  71  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  40  74  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            38  73  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          40  72  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           33  72  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   34  73  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                36  74  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               41  73  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 39  63  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               32  61  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                39  61  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 35  66  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               35  71  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               36  72  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            25  68  25  66 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  34  69  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   25  72  25  69 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              24  72  23  69 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 35  71  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  36  74  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 33  74  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          36  73  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              38  72  36  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

LANEY/NOVLAN



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMAF 132032
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
232 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Zonal flow will continue through next weekend bringing westerly to
northwesterly upper level flow and periodic weak cold fronts to
west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Our next cold front will arrive
tomorrow, with others expected on Tuesday and Friday. Dry air and
a northerly track for the supporting upper level troughs will
eliminate any chance for rainfall during this time period.
Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for
highs and 5 to 10 degrees above normal for lows.

The GFS has been showing a chance for rain starting next Sunday
and now the latest ECMWF is also showing some rainfall for early
next week as well. That would be really nice to see but the 500 mb
trough appears too weak to support any significant precipitation
so am still very skeptical about rainfall. At least it will be
something to keep an eye on this upcoming week.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  70  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  73  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  81  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  76  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  64  44  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          36  69  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          36  70  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  72  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         43  72  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           38  76  34  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/10



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 132030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
230 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AN IMPRESSIVE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AT
MANY LOCATIONS AS OF 2 PM. THE MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 40+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND MILD NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
A COLD FRONT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ZONES SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...QPF
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOW WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
HALF INCH.

DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND BRING AN END TO ALL PRECIPITATION. THE AIR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AND AFTERNOON HIGHS
MONDAY WILL STILL MANAGE TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S UNDER
A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
AND A REINFORCEMENT OF GULF MOISTURE TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
THEREFORE...FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 650 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/
ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL NORTHEASTERLY...THE 12Z KFWD
RAOB INDICATES THAT WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE ALREADY BECOME
SOUTHERLY. SATELLITE SHOWED WIDESPREAD STRATUS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
OF A KSAT /SAN ANTONIO/ TO KCLL /COLLEGE STATION/ LINE...WITH SOME
PATCHES OF CLOUDS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE KT35 /CAMERON/ AND KLHB
/HEARNE/ AREAS. EXPECT SOME VFR CEILINGS TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE WACO AREA MID TO LATE MORNING /15-17Z/ AND INTO THE METROPLEX
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON /18-21Z/. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY MID EVENING /02-04Z/ AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST...LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS MORNING AND
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. EXPECT SOME
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BY 17Z SUNDAY.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  71  50  69  47 /   5  20  30  10   0
WACO, TX              51  74  51  72  43 /  10  20  30  10   0
PARIS, TX             41  63  48  66  45 /   5  20  50  30   5
DENTON, TX            49  69  47  68  45 /   5  20  30  10   0
MCKINNEY, TX          49  68  49  67  45 /   5  20  40  20   0
DALLAS, TX            51  71  52  70  49 /   5  20  30  10   0
TERRELL, TX           49  69  51  69  46 /   5  20  40  30   5
CORSICANA, TX         51  72  55  72  48 /  10  20  30  30   0
TEMPLE, TX            51  74  52  73  46 /  10  20  20  10   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  72  45  70  44 /   5  10  10  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/79



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 132029
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
229 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND
TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS AROUND
10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MEAN PATCHY FOG
AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING. BY THE END
OF PERIOD ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE FLOW OVER TEXAS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL A RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY. THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THIS TIME.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST WILL BE
DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  75  56  76  50 /  -   -   10  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  76  52  76  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  76  52  79  48 /  -   10  -   -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  74  51  74  47 /   0  -   -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  77  50  81  48 /   0  -    0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  74  53  74  46 /  -   -   10  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             52  77  48  80  46 /   0  10   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        54  76  53  77  47 /  -   10  10  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  76  56  77  48 /  -   10  10  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       53  77  53  77  49 /  -   10  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  77  52  79  49 /  -   -   -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 131820
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1220 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS NOTED ACROSS THE SWRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA THIS MORN/
AFTN...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS
THE LINE WEAKENS/MOVES BACK FURTHER INLAND THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD LOWER/MVFR CIGS ACROSS SE TX BY SAT MORN.
SOME SPOTS MIGHT SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT FOG COULD
BE MORE PREVALENT SUN MORN. 41


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

UPDATE...
FIRST VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO LET
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE.

BASED ON 15Z SFC OBS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM LA GRANGE TO
SUGAR LAND TO GALVESTON. LATEST 14Z HRRR HAS THIS BOUNDARY FAIRLY
WELL RESOLVED AND BEGINS TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TURNS WINDS TO SE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER AIR TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT MAY STILL
FEEL HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MAIN
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO ENSURE CONSISTENCY WITH ONGOING
TRENDS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. OVERALL NOT A LOT OF
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      67  52  71  56  71 /  10  10  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  51  71  58  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  56  69  58  68 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...41




000
FXUS64 KCRP 131804 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1204 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED A FEW PARAMETERS (MAINLY TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT) FOR THE FIRST AND SECOND PERIOD TO BETTER FALL IN LINE WITH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN
QUESTION IS WHETHER AREAS WILL SEE VSBYS FALL TO WHAT WE SAW THIS
MORNING OR BE BETTER. SINCE 925MB WINDS ARE GOING TO BE STRONGER
TONIGHT AND PROBABLY AOA 25 KNOTS...THINK DENSE FOG WITH LIFR
VSBYS BLO 1SM WILL BE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...IF THEY WERE TO OCCUR IT
WILL BE AT KVCT AND MORE LIKELY BETWEEN 04Z-10Z BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL JET GETS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG. THUS...THINK WE WILL
SEE MORE MVFR/IFR CIGS THAN FOG IN THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
THUS...AM GOING WITH IFR CIGS AND NEAR IFR CIGS BEFORE 12Z AT KRLD
AND KALI...RESPECTIVELY...WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT KCRP. AT KVCT
(TRICKIER)...WILL BRING CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR BEFORE
06Z...THEN IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO IFR BR AND MVFR CIGS AOA 09Z AS
LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN (THINK MOS IS TOO PESSIMISTIC). SHOULD SEE
BACK TO VFR BY 15Z ALL TERMINALS WITH MODERATE SOUTH WINDS...
POSSIBLY GUSTY AT KCRP. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO PUT IN WIND
SHEAR NOT SUFFICIENT AS 925MB WINDS ARE AROUND 30 KNOTS AT PEAK
AND SURFACE WINDS AOA 6 KTS FOR THE MOST PART. MAY HAVE TO ADD
LATER TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...FOG IS HANGING TOUGH...BUT VISIBILITIES OVERALL ARE
IMPROVING. KVCT IS STILL 1/4SM BUT THAT SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY.
WEB CAMS SHOW FOG IMPROVING OVER PORTIONS OF VICTORIA AREA.
THUS...WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AND HANDLE WITH A SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...REMOVED DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. KEPT ADVISORY FOR THE
VICTORIA AREA WHERE DENSE FOG WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO LIFT. FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY/TEMP/DEW POINT GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.
UPDATES ARE OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALI AND VCT TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE
BY MID MORNING AS FOG DISSIPATES. LRD MAY BRIEFLY BECOME LIFR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. CRP LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR VFR AS FOG
HAS MOSTLY SHIFTED JUST WEST OF THE AIRPORT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
WINDS...THING MOST SITES WILL PRIMARILY SEE LOW CIGS OVER VIS
REDUCTIONS...BUT VCT/ALI MAY ALSO SEE VIS REDUCTIONS. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DENSE FOG IS IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...OVER A NEARLY IDENTICAL AREA TO YESTERDAY
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS FOG POSSIBLY PUSHING
WESTWARD INTO WEBB COUNTY THOUGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING
ONCE AGAIN...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TOUGH TO DISCERN THIS
MORNING AS IT HAS STALLED WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING..BUT BEST
ESTIMATE HAS IT MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF COULD DRIFT INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...IT WOULD HAVE
NO REAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS. THINK IT WILL STAY MOSTLY
NORTH THOUGH. EXPECT A STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE MAX TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS...BUT THINK WE SHOULD STILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LLJ
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH HIGHER RH LEVELS WOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS. TEMPS OUT WEST COULD
GET QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH DRIER SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S WEST...UPPER 70S EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

RIDGING WILL STILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFTER BRIEF SHOT OF
TROUGH MONDAY AND WEAK COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH.

MONDAY...CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
COME CLOSE TO OUR NORTHEAST BOARDER ON MONDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITH BETTER HEATING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO
THE LOWER-80S AREAWIDE.

TUESDAY - FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD...LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES. FIRE WEATHER THREATS MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY MID-
WEEK WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN PLACE WITH MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  58  78  58  82  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA          74  55  76  56  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            82  57  83  55  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             77  55  82  56  85  /   0  10  10   0  10
ROCKPORT          70  61  74  63  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           81  53  82  51  84  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        76  55  81  58  80  /   0  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       72  61  74  63  75  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KBRO 131754
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1154 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE DAY WHILE
NEAR THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INTERACTING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL INREASE THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CUMULUS
FIELD TO CONTINUE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY CLEARING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS DECOUPLE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING
AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THE
CHANCE OF FOG IS LESS TONIGHT AS THE SE WINDS MAY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...FOG TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE LOCAL AERODROMES UNTIL MID
MORNING WHEN HEATING/WINDS INCREASE AND FOG DISSIPATES. AFTER MID
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS REST OF DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...INCLUDED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BROOKS AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES UNTIL 8 A.M. IN THE MORNING PACKAGE BASED ON OBS
ALONG THE U.S.281/I-69C CORRIDOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN
OFF AROUND MID MORNING WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL UNDER A MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH A SURGE OF NEW AIR ARRIVING OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
NORTH GULF FROM THE PLAINS TODAY.

TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER FOG
EPISODE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL REORIENT THE GRADIENT...
VEERING WINDS CLOSER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY MOSTLY CLR...AN INCREASE IN LOW CLDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNDAY. A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING GULF HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEST TX LOWER PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON SUN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TAKING OVER FROM MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER
OR EVEN MID 80S INLAND. ALSO BY SUNDAY...THE OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL BE
TO THE EAST WHILE A BROAD...POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO WEST TEXAS TEMPORARILY TAKES OVER
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WARM WEEK IS IN
STORE FEATURING HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY. THERE
WILL BE A 500MB S/W TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
VERY LITTLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY. NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION SO NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TODAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH OVER THE THE
NORTH GULF TODAY WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY. ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE INBOUND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SCEC CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT IN TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59




000
FXUS64 KBRO 131754
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1154 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE DAY WHILE
NEAR THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INTERACTING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL INREASE THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CUMULUS
FIELD TO CONTINUE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY CLEARING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS DECOUPLE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING
AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THE
CHANCE OF FOG IS LESS TONIGHT AS THE SE WINDS MAY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...FOG TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE LOCAL AERODROMES UNTIL MID
MORNING WHEN HEATING/WINDS INCREASE AND FOG DISSIPATES. AFTER MID
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS REST OF DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...INCLUDED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BROOKS AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES UNTIL 8 A.M. IN THE MORNING PACKAGE BASED ON OBS
ALONG THE U.S.281/I-69C CORRIDOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN
OFF AROUND MID MORNING WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL UNDER A MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH A SURGE OF NEW AIR ARRIVING OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
NORTH GULF FROM THE PLAINS TODAY.

TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER FOG
EPISODE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL REORIENT THE GRADIENT...
VEERING WINDS CLOSER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY MOSTLY CLR...AN INCREASE IN LOW CLDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNDAY. A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING GULF HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEST TX LOWER PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON SUN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TAKING OVER FROM MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER
OR EVEN MID 80S INLAND. ALSO BY SUNDAY...THE OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL BE
TO THE EAST WHILE A BROAD...POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO WEST TEXAS TEMPORARILY TAKES OVER
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WARM WEEK IS IN
STORE FEATURING HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY. THERE
WILL BE A 500MB S/W TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
VERY LITTLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY. NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION SO NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TODAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH OVER THE THE
NORTH GULF TODAY WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY. ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE INBOUND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SCEC CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT IN TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59



000
FXUS64 KBRO 131754
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1154 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE DAY WHILE
NEAR THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INTERACTING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL INREASE THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CUMULUS
FIELD TO CONTINUE THROUGH PART OF THE DAY CLEARING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS DECOUPLE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING
AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THE
CHANCE OF FOG IS LESS TONIGHT AS THE SE WINDS MAY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...FOG TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE LOCAL AERODROMES UNTIL MID
MORNING WHEN HEATING/WINDS INCREASE AND FOG DISSIPATES. AFTER MID
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS REST OF DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...INCLUDED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BROOKS AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES UNTIL 8 A.M. IN THE MORNING PACKAGE BASED ON OBS
ALONG THE U.S.281/I-69C CORRIDOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN
OFF AROUND MID MORNING WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL UNDER A MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH A SURGE OF NEW AIR ARRIVING OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
NORTH GULF FROM THE PLAINS TODAY.

TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER FOG
EPISODE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL REORIENT THE GRADIENT...
VEERING WINDS CLOSER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY MOSTLY CLR...AN INCREASE IN LOW CLDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNDAY. A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING GULF HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEST TX LOWER PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON SUN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TAKING OVER FROM MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER
OR EVEN MID 80S INLAND. ALSO BY SUNDAY...THE OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL BE
TO THE EAST WHILE A BROAD...POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO WEST TEXAS TEMPORARILY TAKES OVER
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WARM WEEK IS IN
STORE FEATURING HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY. THERE
WILL BE A 500MB S/W TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
VERY LITTLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY. NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION SO NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TODAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH OVER THE THE
NORTH GULF TODAY WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY. ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE INBOUND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SCEC CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT IN TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/59



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KAMA 131742
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1142 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK AT
AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUST AT OR ABOVE 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS MIXING SUBSIDES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNDERGOES A TEMPORARY FLATTENING TODAY...AND
THEN RESUMES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THURSDAY.  PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROF THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY NEAR ZONAL FLOW.

DRY AIR IN LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT BE REPLENISHED BY GULF MOISTURE AS
OCCASIONAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OCCUR.  DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND AROUND 20 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
DIMINISH WHILE TRENDING TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
TUESDAY MORNING WILL TREND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.  CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER.  MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

2/17




000
FXUS64 KAMA 131742
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1142 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK AT
AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUST AT OR ABOVE 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS MIXING SUBSIDES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNDERGOES A TEMPORARY FLATTENING TODAY...AND
THEN RESUMES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THURSDAY.  PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROF THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY NEAR ZONAL FLOW.

DRY AIR IN LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT BE REPLENISHED BY GULF MOISTURE AS
OCCASIONAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OCCUR.  DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND AROUND 20 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
DIMINISH WHILE TRENDING TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
TUESDAY MORNING WILL TREND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.  CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER.  MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

2/17




000
FXUS64 KAMA 131742
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1142 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK AT
AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUST AT OR ABOVE 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS MIXING SUBSIDES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNDERGOES A TEMPORARY FLATTENING TODAY...AND
THEN RESUMES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THURSDAY.  PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROF THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY NEAR ZONAL FLOW.

DRY AIR IN LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT BE REPLENISHED BY GULF MOISTURE AS
OCCASIONAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OCCUR.  DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND AROUND 20 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
DIMINISH WHILE TRENDING TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
TUESDAY MORNING WILL TREND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.  CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER.  MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

2/17


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLUB 131733
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET WHEN THEY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WAS MAINTAINING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE THIS MORNING. DESPITE DRIER DEWPOINTS
UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES
WERE NOTED IN AND AROUND SWISHER COUNTY AT 2 AM. REMOVED PATCHY
FOG MENTION FOR ALL BUT THESE AREAS AS TRENDS OVERALL ARE TOO
MARGINAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. SAID RIDGE WILL RETREAT
EAST TODAY AHEAD OF BACKING UPPER WINDS AND LEE TROUGHING FOCUSING
EAST OF THE RATON MESA. BREEZY SW GRADIENT WINDS BY MIDDAY WILL
ENHANCE THICKNESSES OVER ALL BUT OUR NERN ZONES WHERE THE COOLER
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE LATER TO DEPART. AS SUCH...BUMPED UP MAX
TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON PAR WITH THE MILDER MAV AND
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

SURFACE TROUGHING WILL EDGE CLOSER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED
TROUGH ARRIVING IN DRY NW FLOW. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
MOISTEN MAINLY MOST IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A THREAT OF ADVECTION FOG PARTICULARLY GIVEN
MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND MARGINAL DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHEAST.
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK AHEAD OF GUSTY N WINDS.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. FRONT WILL STALL OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO DRIVE ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS
KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IN PLACE BEFORE EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR TIMING AND
LOCATION WHEN IT STALLS OUT AS THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COOL AIR WITH THESE FRONT SO TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE APPROACHING 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY. IT
COULD ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY FOR THE CAPROCK AS THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOW FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS WHETHER WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
ANY PRECIPITATION OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY HELP SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION BUT
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL DEVELOP OR NOT SO DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/99/99




000
FXUS64 KEWX 131731
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1131 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A UVA-SAT-AUS
LINE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH VFR
CU THEREAFTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SE TO S
WIND 8-12 KTS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

IFR CEILINGS WILL RE-DEVELOP WITH STRATUS ALONG AUS-SAT LINE
AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND EXPAND WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE HILL
COUNTRY AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...WITH IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS
AT DRT POSSIBLE BY 12Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FARTHER WEST AND IS SLOWER TO DISSIPATE
THAN WE PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IT NOW INCLUDES ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TO MAVERICK...BUT ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MAVERICK WILL HAVE
DENSE FOG. HAVE EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL 11 AM. EXPECT VISIBILITY
WILL IMPROVE BY THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF I-35
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION AND CURRENTLY ALL THE TAF SITES ARE VFR. JUST TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE REMAINS AND STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED AND CURRENTLY ARE PROGRESSING NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR KSAT/KSSF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KAUS AS SOME
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AFTER 13Z. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 16Z. WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME SE AFTER 17Z AT 10-15 KNOTS. TIGHTER
GRADIENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS NEAR 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT THE
I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. KDRT NOT LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL
NEAR 12Z WHEN MVFR CIGS DEVELOP. AFTER 09Z MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND FOG BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KMAF 131723
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1123 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Expect southerly winds 10-20 kts with VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  68  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       37  72  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         48  78  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  45  74  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  69  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          38  68  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  73  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  70  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  70  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  73  35  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/29




000
FXUS64 KMAF 131723
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1123 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
Expect southerly winds 10-20 kts with VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  68  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       37  72  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         48  78  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  45  74  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  69  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          38  68  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  73  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  70  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         45  70  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  73  35  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/29



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 131711
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1111 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions today with southeast winds of 10 to 15
knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots around 00z. Winds at KABI and
KSJT will increase to 12 to 16 knots, with higher gusts, late this
evening as a low level jet of 35 to 45 knots develops. Stratus is
forecast to result in MVFR ceilings at all sites Sunday morning,
except KABI where MVFR ceilings are less certain. VFR ceilings
will return to all sites by late morning/early afternoon Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 552 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the next 24 hours.
There are a few low clouds developing along and south of
I-35...but these are not expected to make much progress into our
area this morning, so have kept skies clear this morning. As
southerly flow increases today and tonight, moisture will also
increase, bringing low clouds into the area after midnight. Have
introduced MVFR conditions at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT at around 09Z.
20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The benign weather pattern with mild temperatures will continue
through Sunday morning. Light and variable winds this morning will
become south to southeast during the morning hours. This flow will
bring Gulf of Mexico moisture into our area today, raising dewpoints
into the 40s by early afternoon. Dewpoints are expected to
eventually rise into the lower 50s for the southern 2/3 of the area
by late tonight. This will result in warmer overnight temperatures
and lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Low clouds are also expected to
affect areas generally south of a Brownwood to Ozona line, although
these low clouds could affect areas as far north as the I-20
corridor by early Sunday morning. Highs today will be similar to
Friday with cooler temperatures in the Big Country of upper 60s to
near 70 with low to mid 70s elsewhere.

20

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Warmer than normal temperatures will continue next week with dry
conditions for west central Texas.

A few shortwave upper troughs will dive southeast across the Plains
to the mid-Mississippi Valley, sending weak cold fronts south
into west central Texas Sunday afternoon, Monday and again Tuesday
afternoon. While the main effect from these weak fronts will be
temporary wind shifts, daily high temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler across the Big Country, relative to the rest of our
area.

The warmest temperatures overall are expected Wednesday and
Thursday, as an upper ridge gradually shifts east across Texas.
Highs are expected to be in the 75-80 degree range Wednesday, and
in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. South winds will
develop Wednesday morning, increasing and becoming gusty through
Thursday. With this setup, low-level moisture will increase and
could have at least patchy low cloud development early Wednesday
and Thursday mornings.

An upper trough is progged to move east across the northern and
central Plains Thursday night, with trailing portion of associated
cold front moving south across much of west central Texas on Friday.
This looks to be another weak front, resulting in mainly just a wind
shift.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  51  72  43 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  75  51  77  38 /   0   0   5   0
Junction  74  49  73  37 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels




000
FXUS64 KSJT 131711
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1111 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions today with southeast winds of 10 to 15
knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots around 00z. Winds at KABI and
KSJT will increase to 12 to 16 knots, with higher gusts, late this
evening as a low level jet of 35 to 45 knots develops. Stratus is
forecast to result in MVFR ceilings at all sites Sunday morning,
except KABI where MVFR ceilings are less certain. VFR ceilings
will return to all sites by late morning/early afternoon Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 552 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the next 24 hours.
There are a few low clouds developing along and south of
I-35...but these are not expected to make much progress into our
area this morning, so have kept skies clear this morning. As
southerly flow increases today and tonight, moisture will also
increase, bringing low clouds into the area after midnight. Have
introduced MVFR conditions at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT at around 09Z.
20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The benign weather pattern with mild temperatures will continue
through Sunday morning. Light and variable winds this morning will
become south to southeast during the morning hours. This flow will
bring Gulf of Mexico moisture into our area today, raising dewpoints
into the 40s by early afternoon. Dewpoints are expected to
eventually rise into the lower 50s for the southern 2/3 of the area
by late tonight. This will result in warmer overnight temperatures
and lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Low clouds are also expected to
affect areas generally south of a Brownwood to Ozona line, although
these low clouds could affect areas as far north as the I-20
corridor by early Sunday morning. Highs today will be similar to
Friday with cooler temperatures in the Big Country of upper 60s to
near 70 with low to mid 70s elsewhere.

20

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Warmer than normal temperatures will continue next week with dry
conditions for west central Texas.

A few shortwave upper troughs will dive southeast across the Plains
to the mid-Mississippi Valley, sending weak cold fronts south
into west central Texas Sunday afternoon, Monday and again Tuesday
afternoon. While the main effect from these weak fronts will be
temporary wind shifts, daily high temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler across the Big Country, relative to the rest of our
area.

The warmest temperatures overall are expected Wednesday and
Thursday, as an upper ridge gradually shifts east across Texas.
Highs are expected to be in the 75-80 degree range Wednesday, and
in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. South winds will
develop Wednesday morning, increasing and becoming gusty through
Thursday. With this setup, low-level moisture will increase and
could have at least patchy low cloud development early Wednesday
and Thursday mornings.

An upper trough is progged to move east across the northern and
central Plains Thursday night, with trailing portion of associated
cold front moving south across much of west central Texas on Friday.
This looks to be another weak front, resulting in mainly just a wind
shift.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  51  72  43 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  75  51  77  38 /   0   0   5   0
Junction  74  49  73  37 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels




000
FXUS64 KSJT 131711
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1111 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions today with southeast winds of 10 to 15
knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots around 00z. Winds at KABI and
KSJT will increase to 12 to 16 knots, with higher gusts, late this
evening as a low level jet of 35 to 45 knots develops. Stratus is
forecast to result in MVFR ceilings at all sites Sunday morning,
except KABI where MVFR ceilings are less certain. VFR ceilings
will return to all sites by late morning/early afternoon Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 552 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the next 24 hours.
There are a few low clouds developing along and south of
I-35...but these are not expected to make much progress into our
area this morning, so have kept skies clear this morning. As
southerly flow increases today and tonight, moisture will also
increase, bringing low clouds into the area after midnight. Have
introduced MVFR conditions at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT at around 09Z.
20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The benign weather pattern with mild temperatures will continue
through Sunday morning. Light and variable winds this morning will
become south to southeast during the morning hours. This flow will
bring Gulf of Mexico moisture into our area today, raising dewpoints
into the 40s by early afternoon. Dewpoints are expected to
eventually rise into the lower 50s for the southern 2/3 of the area
by late tonight. This will result in warmer overnight temperatures
and lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Low clouds are also expected to
affect areas generally south of a Brownwood to Ozona line, although
these low clouds could affect areas as far north as the I-20
corridor by early Sunday morning. Highs today will be similar to
Friday with cooler temperatures in the Big Country of upper 60s to
near 70 with low to mid 70s elsewhere.

20

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Warmer than normal temperatures will continue next week with dry
conditions for west central Texas.

A few shortwave upper troughs will dive southeast across the Plains
to the mid-Mississippi Valley, sending weak cold fronts south
into west central Texas Sunday afternoon, Monday and again Tuesday
afternoon. While the main effect from these weak fronts will be
temporary wind shifts, daily high temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler across the Big Country, relative to the rest of our
area.

The warmest temperatures overall are expected Wednesday and
Thursday, as an upper ridge gradually shifts east across Texas.
Highs are expected to be in the 75-80 degree range Wednesday, and
in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. South winds will
develop Wednesday morning, increasing and becoming gusty through
Thursday. With this setup, low-level moisture will increase and
could have at least patchy low cloud development early Wednesday
and Thursday mornings.

An upper trough is progged to move east across the northern and
central Plains Thursday night, with trailing portion of associated
cold front moving south across much of west central Texas on Friday.
This looks to be another weak front, resulting in mainly just a wind
shift.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  51  72  43 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  75  51  77  38 /   0   0   5   0
Junction  74  49  73  37 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels



000
FXUS64 KEWX 131702
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1102 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND WE HAVE
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPOTS
IN DIMMIT AND MAVERICK COUNTIES WHERE VISIBILITY IS AROUND THREE
MILES...BUT IN MOST PLACES THE VISIBILITY IS NOW UNRESTRICTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FARTHER WEST AND IS SLOWER TO DISSIPATE
THAN WE PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IT NOW INCLUDES ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TO MAVERICK...BUT ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MAVERICK WILL HAVE
DENSE FOG. HAVE EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL 11 AM. EXPECT VISIBILITY
WILL IMPROVE BY THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF I-35
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION AND CURRENTLY ALL THE TAF SITES ARE VFR. JUST TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE REMAINS AND STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED AND CURRENTLY ARE PROGRESSING NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR KSAT/KSSF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KAUS AS SOME
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AFTER 13Z. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 16Z. WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME SE AFTER 17Z AT 10-15 KNOTS. TIGHTER
GRADIENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS NEAR 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT THE
I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. KDRT NOT LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL
NEAR 12Z WHEN MVFR CIGS DEVELOP. AFTER 09Z MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND FOG BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KCRP 131552 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...FOG IS HANGING TOUGH...BUT VISIBILITIES OVERALL ARE
IMPROVING. KVCT IS STILL 1/4SM BUT THAT SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY.
WEB CAMS SHOW FOG IMPROVING OVER PORTIONS OF VICTORIA AREA.
THUS...WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AND HANDLE WITH A SHORT-TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...REMOVED DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. KEPT ADVISORY FOR THE
VICTORIA AREA WHERE DENSE FOG WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO LIFT. FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY/TEMP/DEW POINT GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.
UPDATES ARE OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALI AND VCT TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE
BY MID MORNING AS FOG DISSIPATES. LRD MAY BRIEFLY BECOME LIFR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. CRP LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR VFR AS FOG
HAS MOSTLY SHIFTED JUST WEST OF THE AIRPORT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
WINDS...THING MOST SITES WILL PRIMARILY SEE LOW CIGS OVER VIS
REDUCTIONS...BUT VCT/ALI MAY ALSO SEE VIS REDUCTIONS. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DENSE FOG IS IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...OVER A NEARLY IDENTICAL AREA TO YESTERDAY
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS FOG POSSIBLY PUSHING
WESTWARD INTO WEBB COUNTY THOUGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING
ONCE AGAIN...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TOUGH TO DISCERN THIS
MORNING AS IT HAS STALLED WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING..BUT BEST
ESTIMATE HAS IT MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF COULD DRIFT INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...IT WOULD HAVE
NO REAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS. THINK IT WILL STAY MOSTLY
NORTH THOUGH. EXPECT A STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE MAX TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS...BUT THINK WE SHOULD STILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LLJ
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH HIGHER RH LEVELS WOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS. TEMPS OUT WEST COULD
GET QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH DRIER SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S WEST...UPPER 70S EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

RIDGING WILL STILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFTER BRIEF SHOT OF
TROUGH MONDAY AND WEAK COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH.

MONDAY...CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
COME CLOSE TO OUR NORTHEAST BOARDER ON MONDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITH BETTER HEATING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO
THE LOWER-80S AREAWIDE.

TUESDAY - FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD...LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES. FIRE WEATHER THREATS MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY MID-
WEEK WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN PLACE WITH MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  58  78  58  82  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA          76  55  76  56  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            81  57  83  55  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             78  55  82  56  85  /   0  10  10   0  10
ROCKPORT          69  61  74  63  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           80  53  82  51  84  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        78  55  81  58  80  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       69  61  74  63  75  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 131552 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...FOG IS HANGING TOUGH...BUT VISIBILITIES OVERALL ARE
IMPROVING. KVCT IS STILL 1/4SM BUT THAT SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY.
WEB CAMS SHOW FOG IMPROVING OVER PORTIONS OF VICTORIA AREA.
THUS...WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AND HANDLE WITH A SHORT-TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...REMOVED DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. KEPT ADVISORY FOR THE
VICTORIA AREA WHERE DENSE FOG WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO LIFT. FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY/TEMP/DEW POINT GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.
UPDATES ARE OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALI AND VCT TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE
BY MID MORNING AS FOG DISSIPATES. LRD MAY BRIEFLY BECOME LIFR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. CRP LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR VFR AS FOG
HAS MOSTLY SHIFTED JUST WEST OF THE AIRPORT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
WINDS...THING MOST SITES WILL PRIMARILY SEE LOW CIGS OVER VIS
REDUCTIONS...BUT VCT/ALI MAY ALSO SEE VIS REDUCTIONS. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DENSE FOG IS IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...OVER A NEARLY IDENTICAL AREA TO YESTERDAY
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS FOG POSSIBLY PUSHING
WESTWARD INTO WEBB COUNTY THOUGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING
ONCE AGAIN...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TOUGH TO DISCERN THIS
MORNING AS IT HAS STALLED WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING..BUT BEST
ESTIMATE HAS IT MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF COULD DRIFT INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...IT WOULD HAVE
NO REAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS. THINK IT WILL STAY MOSTLY
NORTH THOUGH. EXPECT A STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE MAX TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS...BUT THINK WE SHOULD STILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LLJ
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH HIGHER RH LEVELS WOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS. TEMPS OUT WEST COULD
GET QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH DRIER SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S WEST...UPPER 70S EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

RIDGING WILL STILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFTER BRIEF SHOT OF
TROUGH MONDAY AND WEAK COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH.

MONDAY...CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
COME CLOSE TO OUR NORTHEAST BOARDER ON MONDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITH BETTER HEATING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO
THE LOWER-80S AREAWIDE.

TUESDAY - FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD...LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES. FIRE WEATHER THREATS MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY MID-
WEEK WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN PLACE WITH MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  58  78  58  82  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA          76  55  76  56  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            81  57  83  55  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             78  55  82  56  85  /   0  10  10   0  10
ROCKPORT          69  61  74  63  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           80  53  82  51  84  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        78  55  81  58  80  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       69  61  74  63  75  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KHGX 131525
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
925 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
FIRST VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO LET
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE.

BASED ON 15Z SFC OBS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM LA GRANGE TO
SUGAR LAND TO GALVESTON. LATEST 14Z HRRR HAS THIS BOUNDARY FAIRLY
WELL RESOLVED AND BEGINS TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TURNS WINDS TO SE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER AIR TO KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S BUT MAY STILL
FEEL HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MAIN
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO ENSURE CONSISTENCY WITH ONGOING
TRENDS AND LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. OVERALL NOT A LOT OF
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      67  52  71  56  71 /  10  10  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  51  71  58  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  56  69  58  68 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39




000
FXUS64 KEWX 131458
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
858 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FARTHER WEST AND IS SLOWER TO DISSIPATE
THAN WE PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IT NOW INCLUDES ALL OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TO MAVERICK...BUT ONLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MAVERICK WILL HAVE
DENSE FOG. HAVE EXTENDED THE TIME UNTIL 11 AM. EXPECT VISIBILITY
WILL IMPROVE BY THAT TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF I-35
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION AND CURRENTLY ALL THE TAF SITES ARE VFR. JUST TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE REMAINS AND STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED AND CURRENTLY ARE PROGRESSING NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR KSAT/KSSF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KAUS AS SOME
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AFTER 13Z. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 16Z. WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME SE AFTER 17Z AT 10-15 KNOTS. TIGHTER
GRADIENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS NEAR 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT THE
I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. KDRT NOT LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL
NEAR 12Z WHEN MVFR CIGS DEVELOP. AFTER 09Z MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND FOG BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...DE WITT...DIMMIT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...
KARNES...LAVACA...MAVERICK...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KCRP 131453 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
853 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...REMOVED DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. KEPT ADVISORY FOR THE
VICTORIA AREA WHERE DENSE FOG WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO LIFT. FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY/TEMP/DEW POINT GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.
UPDATES ARE OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALI AND VCT TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE
BY MID MORNING AS FOG DISSIPATES. LRD MAY BRIEFLY BECOME LIFR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. CRP LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR VFR AS FOG
HAS MOSTLY SHIFTED JUST WEST OF THE AIRPORT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
WINDS...THING MOST SITES WILL PRIMARILY SEE LOW CIGS OVER VIS
REDUCTIONS...BUT VCT/ALI MAY ALSO SEE VIS REDUCTIONS. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DENSE FOG IS IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...OVER A NEARLY IDENTICAL AREA TO YESTERDAY
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS FOG POSSIBLY PUSHING
WESTWARD INTO WEBB COUNTY THOUGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING
ONCE AGAIN...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TOUGH TO DISCERN THIS
MORNING AS IT HAS STALLED WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING..BUT BEST
ESTIMATE HAS IT MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF COULD DRIFT INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...IT WOULD HAVE
NO REAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS. THINK IT WILL STAY MOSTLY
NORTH THOUGH. EXPECT A STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE MAX TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS...BUT THINK WE SHOULD STILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LLJ
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH HIGHER RH LEVELS WOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS. TEMPS OUT WEST COULD
GET QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH DRIER SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S WEST...UPPER 70S EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

RIDGING WILL STILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFTER BRIEF SHOT OF
TROUGH MONDAY AND WEAK COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH.

MONDAY...CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
COME CLOSE TO OUR NORTHEAST BOARDER ON MONDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITH BETTER HEATING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO
THE LOWER-80S AREAWIDE.

TUESDAY - FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD...LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES. FIRE WEATHER THREATS MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY MID-
WEEK WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN PLACE WITH MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  58  78  58  82  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA          76  55  76  56  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            81  57  83  55  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             78  55  82  56  85  /   0  10  10   0  10
ROCKPORT          69  61  74  63  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           80  53  82  51  84  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        78  55  81  58  80  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       69  61  74  63  75  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KFWD 131250 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
650 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL NORTHEASTERLY...THE 12Z KFWD
RAOB INDICATES THAT WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE ALREADY BECOME
SOUTHERLY. SATELLITE SHOWED WIDESPREAD STRATUS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
OF A KSAT /SAN ANTONIO/ TO KCLL /COLLEGE STATION/ LINE...WITH SOME
PATCHES OF CLOUDS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE KT35 /CAMERON/ AND KLHB
/HEARNE/ AREAS. EXPECT SOME VFR CEILINGS TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE WACO AREA MID TO LATE MORNING /15-17Z/ AND INTO THE METROPLEX
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON /18-21Z/. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY MID EVENING /02-04Z/ AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST...LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS MORNING AND
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. EXPECT SOME
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BY 17Z SUNDAY.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/
WITH THE RECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION....HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAYS...PUTTING TEMPS IN THE SEASONALLY NORMAL RANGE. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREE WARMER...AROUND 50 DEGREES...DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...WITH VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.
QUIETER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

78

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  51  65  49  66 /   0   5  20  40  30
WACO, TX              67  51  70  49  69 /   0  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             55  41  54  44  62 /   0   5  20  50  40
DENTON, TX            61  49  65  45  65 /   0   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          59  49  63  47  64 /   0   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            62  51  67  50  66 /   0   5  20  50  30
TERRELL, TX           61  49  64  49  65 /   0   5  20  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         64  51  69  52  68 /   0   5  20  40  40
TEMPLE, TX            67  51  70  50  71 /   0   5  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  50  69  45  67 /   0   5  10  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/78




000
FXUS64 KFWD 131250 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
650 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL NORTHEASTERLY...THE 12Z KFWD
RAOB INDICATES THAT WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE ALREADY BECOME
SOUTHERLY. SATELLITE SHOWED WIDESPREAD STRATUS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
OF A KSAT /SAN ANTONIO/ TO KCLL /COLLEGE STATION/ LINE...WITH SOME
PATCHES OF CLOUDS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE KT35 /CAMERON/ AND KLHB
/HEARNE/ AREAS. EXPECT SOME VFR CEILINGS TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE WACO AREA MID TO LATE MORNING /15-17Z/ AND INTO THE METROPLEX
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON /18-21Z/. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY MID EVENING /02-04Z/ AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST...LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS MORNING AND
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. EXPECT SOME
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BY 17Z SUNDAY.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/
WITH THE RECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION....HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAYS...PUTTING TEMPS IN THE SEASONALLY NORMAL RANGE. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREE WARMER...AROUND 50 DEGREES...DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...WITH VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.
QUIETER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

78

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  51  65  49  66 /   0   5  20  40  30
WACO, TX              67  51  70  49  69 /   0  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             55  41  54  44  62 /   0   5  20  50  40
DENTON, TX            61  49  65  45  65 /   0   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          59  49  63  47  64 /   0   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            62  51  67  50  66 /   0   5  20  50  30
TERRELL, TX           61  49  64  49  65 /   0   5  20  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         64  51  69  52  68 /   0   5  20  40  40
TEMPLE, TX            67  51  70  50  71 /   0   5  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  50  69  45  67 /   0   5  10  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/78




000
FXUS64 KFWD 131250 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
650 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL NORTHEASTERLY...THE 12Z KFWD
RAOB INDICATES THAT WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE ALREADY BECOME
SOUTHERLY. SATELLITE SHOWED WIDESPREAD STRATUS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST
OF A KSAT /SAN ANTONIO/ TO KCLL /COLLEGE STATION/ LINE...WITH SOME
PATCHES OF CLOUDS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE KT35 /CAMERON/ AND KLHB
/HEARNE/ AREAS. EXPECT SOME VFR CEILINGS TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE WACO AREA MID TO LATE MORNING /15-17Z/ AND INTO THE METROPLEX
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON /18-21Z/. CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY BY MID EVENING /02-04Z/ AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST...LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS MORNING AND
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. EXPECT SOME
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BY 17Z SUNDAY.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/
WITH THE RECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION....HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAYS...PUTTING TEMPS IN THE SEASONALLY NORMAL RANGE. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREE WARMER...AROUND 50 DEGREES...DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...WITH VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.
QUIETER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

78

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  51  65  49  66 /   0   5  20  40  30
WACO, TX              67  51  70  49  69 /   0  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             55  41  54  44  62 /   0   5  20  50  40
DENTON, TX            61  49  65  45  65 /   0   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          59  49  63  47  64 /   0   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            62  51  67  50  66 /   0   5  20  50  30
TERRELL, TX           61  49  64  49  65 /   0   5  20  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         64  51  69  52  68 /   0   5  20  40  40
TEMPLE, TX            67  51  70  50  71 /   0   5  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  50  69  45  67 /   0   5  10  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/78



000
FXUS64 KHGX 131224
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
624 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
A NEAR STATIONARY COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING THE IMPETUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR CEILINGS. SATURATION WITHIN THE FRONTAL LAYER LAYING BETWEEN
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLIES AND MID LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL CREATE BKN-OVC
MVFR DECKS FOR A GOOD MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. STOUT EASTERLIES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER MORE ONSHORE THROUGH THE DAY. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET SUNDAY WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAY EXPERIENCE LATE
SUNDAY AM VCSH BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE WITHIN THIS
PACKAGE. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED DENSE FOG ADVISORY. NOW IN EFFECT (STILL THRU 9 AM) FOR JUST
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SURFACE VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE
ARE STILL BEING REPORTED.  42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
DEW POINTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES) ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AHEAD OF IT...VALUES IN THE
LOWER 50S ARE HELPING TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME READINGS
DOWN TO 1/4 MILE WHERE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. EXPECT THE
DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE WORKING SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH FOG
DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME MODELS HAVE AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES COMING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
OUR EASTERN AREAS AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND DRAGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST HAS
CHANGED LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. EXPECT SEVERAL DRY DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS
AND WARM AFTERNOONS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.  42

&&

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CREATE EASTERLY WINDS TODAY...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY
SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE
MODERATE WEEKEND WIND SPEEDS...PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. RESPONDING SEAS WILL LIFT
FROM THIS MORNING`S NEAR 2 FOOT HEIGHTS TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVE
HEIGHTS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSAGE
MONDAY WILL INCREASE (PRIMARILY EASTERN WATER) SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. A COUPLE OF WEAK BOUNDARY PASSAGES EARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SWING WINDS TEMPORARILY OFFSHORE...RETURNING
ONSHORE FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  52  71  56  71 /  10  10  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  51  71  58  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  56  69  58  68 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 131224
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
624 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
A NEAR STATIONARY COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING THE IMPETUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR CEILINGS. SATURATION WITHIN THE FRONTAL LAYER LAYING BETWEEN
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLIES AND MID LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL CREATE BKN-OVC
MVFR DECKS FOR A GOOD MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. STOUT EASTERLIES WILL
GRADUALLY VEER MORE ONSHORE THROUGH THE DAY. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET SUNDAY WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAY EXPERIENCE LATE
SUNDAY AM VCSH BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE WITHIN THIS
PACKAGE. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED DENSE FOG ADVISORY. NOW IN EFFECT (STILL THRU 9 AM) FOR JUST
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SURFACE VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE
ARE STILL BEING REPORTED.  42

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
DEW POINTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES) ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AHEAD OF IT...VALUES IN THE
LOWER 50S ARE HELPING TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME READINGS
DOWN TO 1/4 MILE WHERE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. EXPECT THE
DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE WORKING SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH FOG
DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME MODELS HAVE AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES COMING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
OUR EASTERN AREAS AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND DRAGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST HAS
CHANGED LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. EXPECT SEVERAL DRY DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS
AND WARM AFTERNOONS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.  42

&&

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CREATE EASTERLY WINDS TODAY...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY
SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE
MODERATE WEEKEND WIND SPEEDS...PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. RESPONDING SEAS WILL LIFT
FROM THIS MORNING`S NEAR 2 FOOT HEIGHTS TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVE
HEIGHTS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSAGE
MONDAY WILL INCREASE (PRIMARILY EASTERN WATER) SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. A COUPLE OF WEAK BOUNDARY PASSAGES EARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SWING WINDS TEMPORARILY OFFSHORE...RETURNING
ONSHORE FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  52  71  56  71 /  10  10  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  51  71  58  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  56  69  58  68 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 131213
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
613 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED DENSE FOG ADVISORY. NOW IN EFFECT (STILL THRU 9 AM) FOR JUST
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SURFACE VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE
ARE STILL BEING REPORTED.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
DEW POINTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES) ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AHEAD OF IT...VALUES IN THE
LOWER 50S ARE HELPING TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME READINGS
DOWN TO 1/4 MILE WHERE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. EXPECT THE
DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE WORKING SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH FOG
DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME MODELS HAVE AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES COMING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
OUR EASTERN AREAS AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND DRAGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST HAS
CHANGED LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. EXPECT SEVERAL DRY DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS
AND WARM AFTERNOONS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.  42

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CREATE EASTERLY WINDS TODAY...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY
SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE
MODERATE WEEKEND WIND SPEEDS...PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. RESPONDING SEAS WILL LIFT
FROM THIS MORNING`S NEAR 2 FOOT HEIGHTS TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVE
HEIGHTS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSAGE
MONDAY WILL INCREASE (PRIMARILY EASTERN WATER) SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. A COUPLE OF WEAK BOUNDARY PASSAGES EARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SWING WINDS TEMPORARILY OFFSHORE...RETURNING
ONSHORE FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  52  71  56  71 /  10  10  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  51  71  58  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  56  69  58  68 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 131213
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
613 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED DENSE FOG ADVISORY. NOW IN EFFECT (STILL THRU 9 AM) FOR JUST
OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SURFACE VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE
ARE STILL BEING REPORTED.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
DEW POINTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES) ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AHEAD OF IT...VALUES IN THE
LOWER 50S ARE HELPING TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME READINGS
DOWN TO 1/4 MILE WHERE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. EXPECT THE
DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE WORKING SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH FOG
DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME MODELS HAVE AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES COMING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
OUR EASTERN AREAS AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND DRAGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST HAS
CHANGED LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. EXPECT SEVERAL DRY DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS
AND WARM AFTERNOONS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.  42

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CREATE EASTERLY WINDS TODAY...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY
SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE
MODERATE WEEKEND WIND SPEEDS...PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. RESPONDING SEAS WILL LIFT
FROM THIS MORNING`S NEAR 2 FOOT HEIGHTS TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVE
HEIGHTS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSAGE
MONDAY WILL INCREASE (PRIMARILY EASTERN WATER) SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. A COUPLE OF WEAK BOUNDARY PASSAGES EARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SWING WINDS TEMPORARILY OFFSHORE...RETURNING
ONSHORE FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  52  71  56  71 /  10  10  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  51  71  58  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  56  69  58  68 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBRO 131157 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
557 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE LOCAL AERODROMES UNTIL MID
MORNING WHEN HEATING/WINDS INCREASE AND FOG DISSIPATES. AFTER MID
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS REST OF DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...INCLUDED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BROOKS AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES UNTIL 8 A.M. IN THE MORNING PACKAGE BASED ON OBS
ALONG THE U.S.281/I-69C CORRIDOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN
OFF AROUND MID MORNING WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL UNDER A MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH A SURGE OF NEW AIR ARRIVING OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
NORTH GULF FROM THE PLAINS TODAY.

TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER FOG
EPISODE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL REORIENT THE GRADIENT...
VEERING WINDS CLOSER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY MOSTLY CLR...AN INCREASE IN LOW CLDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNDAY. A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING GULF HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEST TX LOWER PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON SUN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TAKING OVER FROM MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER
OR EVEN MID 80S INLAND. ALSO BY SUNDAY...THE OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL BE
TO THE EAST WHILE A BROAD...POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO WEST TEXAS TEMPORARILY TAKES OVER
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WARM WEEK IS IN
STORE FEATURING HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY. THERE
WILL BE A 500MB S/W TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
VERY LITTLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY. NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION SO NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TODAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH OVER THE THE
NORTH GULF TODAY WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY. ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE INBOUND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SCEC CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT IN TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55



000
FXUS64 KBRO 131157 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
557 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE LOCAL AERODROMES UNTIL MID
MORNING WHEN HEATING/WINDS INCREASE AND FOG DISSIPATES. AFTER MID
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS REST OF DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...INCLUDED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BROOKS AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES UNTIL 8 A.M. IN THE MORNING PACKAGE BASED ON OBS
ALONG THE U.S.281/I-69C CORRIDOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN
OFF AROUND MID MORNING WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL UNDER A MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH A SURGE OF NEW AIR ARRIVING OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
NORTH GULF FROM THE PLAINS TODAY.

TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER FOG
EPISODE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL REORIENT THE GRADIENT...
VEERING WINDS CLOSER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY MOSTLY CLR...AN INCREASE IN LOW CLDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNDAY. A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING GULF HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEST TX LOWER PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON SUN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TAKING OVER FROM MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER
OR EVEN MID 80S INLAND. ALSO BY SUNDAY...THE OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL BE
TO THE EAST WHILE A BROAD...POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO WEST TEXAS TEMPORARILY TAKES OVER
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WARM WEEK IS IN
STORE FEATURING HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY. THERE
WILL BE A 500MB S/W TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
VERY LITTLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY. NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION SO NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TODAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH OVER THE THE
NORTH GULF TODAY WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY. ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE INBOUND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SCEC CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT IN TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55



000
FXUS64 KBRO 131157 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
557 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE LOCAL AERODROMES UNTIL MID
MORNING WHEN HEATING/WINDS INCREASE AND FOG DISSIPATES. AFTER MID
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS REST OF DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...INCLUDED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BROOKS AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES UNTIL 8 A.M. IN THE MORNING PACKAGE BASED ON OBS
ALONG THE U.S.281/I-69C CORRIDOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN
OFF AROUND MID MORNING WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL UNDER A MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH A SURGE OF NEW AIR ARRIVING OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
NORTH GULF FROM THE PLAINS TODAY.

TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER FOG
EPISODE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL REORIENT THE GRADIENT...
VEERING WINDS CLOSER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY MOSTLY CLR...AN INCREASE IN LOW CLDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNDAY. A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING GULF HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEST TX LOWER PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON SUN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TAKING OVER FROM MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER
OR EVEN MID 80S INLAND. ALSO BY SUNDAY...THE OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL BE
TO THE EAST WHILE A BROAD...POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO WEST TEXAS TEMPORARILY TAKES OVER
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WARM WEEK IS IN
STORE FEATURING HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY. THERE
WILL BE A 500MB S/W TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
VERY LITTLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY. NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION SO NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TODAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH OVER THE THE
NORTH GULF TODAY WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY. ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE INBOUND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SCEC CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT IN TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55



000
FXUS64 KBRO 131157 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
557 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE LOCAL AERODROMES UNTIL MID
MORNING WHEN HEATING/WINDS INCREASE AND FOG DISSIPATES. AFTER MID
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS REST OF DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...INCLUDED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BROOKS AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES UNTIL 8 A.M. IN THE MORNING PACKAGE BASED ON OBS
ALONG THE U.S.281/I-69C CORRIDOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN
OFF AROUND MID MORNING WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL UNDER A MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH A SURGE OF NEW AIR ARRIVING OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
NORTH GULF FROM THE PLAINS TODAY.

TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER FOG
EPISODE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL REORIENT THE GRADIENT...
VEERING WINDS CLOSER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY MOSTLY CLR...AN INCREASE IN LOW CLDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNDAY. A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING GULF HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEST TX LOWER PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON SUN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TAKING OVER FROM MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER
OR EVEN MID 80S INLAND. ALSO BY SUNDAY...THE OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL BE
TO THE EAST WHILE A BROAD...POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO WEST TEXAS TEMPORARILY TAKES OVER
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WARM WEEK IS IN
STORE FEATURING HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY. THERE
WILL BE A 500MB S/W TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
VERY LITTLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY. NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION SO NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TODAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH OVER THE THE
NORTH GULF TODAY WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY. ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE INBOUND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SCEC CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT IN TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55



000
FXUS64 KBRO 131157 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
557 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE LOCAL AERODROMES UNTIL MID
MORNING WHEN HEATING/WINDS INCREASE AND FOG DISSIPATES. AFTER MID
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS REST OF DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...INCLUDED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BROOKS AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES UNTIL 8 A.M. IN THE MORNING PACKAGE BASED ON OBS
ALONG THE U.S.281/I-69C CORRIDOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN
OFF AROUND MID MORNING WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL UNDER A MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH A SURGE OF NEW AIR ARRIVING OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
NORTH GULF FROM THE PLAINS TODAY.

TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER FOG
EPISODE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL REORIENT THE GRADIENT...
VEERING WINDS CLOSER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY MOSTLY CLR...AN INCREASE IN LOW CLDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNDAY. A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING GULF HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEST TX LOWER PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON SUN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TAKING OVER FROM MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER
OR EVEN MID 80S INLAND. ALSO BY SUNDAY...THE OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL BE
TO THE EAST WHILE A BROAD...POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO WEST TEXAS TEMPORARILY TAKES OVER
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WARM WEEK IS IN
STORE FEATURING HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY. THERE
WILL BE A 500MB S/W TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
VERY LITTLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY. NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION SO NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TODAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH OVER THE THE
NORTH GULF TODAY WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY. ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE INBOUND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SCEC CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT IN TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55




000
FXUS64 KAMA 131155
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
555 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD IMPACT THE GUYMON TAF
SITE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND 15Z OR 16Z TODAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY 16Z TODAY AND
INCREASE TO SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z SUNDAY 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR SO...THEN VEERING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TO
08Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH
AROUND 08Z TO 11Z SUNDAY INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT AT THE GUYMON TAF
SITE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
AMARILLO AND DALHART TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNDERGOES A TEMPORARY FLATTENING TODAY...AND
THEN RESUMES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THURSDAY.  PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROF THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY NEAR ZONAL FLOW.

DRY AIR IN LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT BE REPLENISHED BY GULF MOISTURE AS
OCCASIONAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OCCUR.  DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND AROUND 20 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
DIMINISH WHILE TRENDING TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
TUESDAY MORNING WILL TREND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.  CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER.  MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/3




000
FXUS64 KAMA 131155
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
555 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD IMPACT THE GUYMON TAF
SITE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND 15Z OR 16Z TODAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY 16Z TODAY AND
INCREASE TO SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z SUNDAY 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR SO...THEN VEERING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TO
08Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH
AROUND 08Z TO 11Z SUNDAY INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT AT THE GUYMON TAF
SITE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
AMARILLO AND DALHART TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNDERGOES A TEMPORARY FLATTENING TODAY...AND
THEN RESUMES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THURSDAY.  PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROF THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY NEAR ZONAL FLOW.

DRY AIR IN LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT BE REPLENISHED BY GULF MOISTURE AS
OCCASIONAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OCCUR.  DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND AROUND 20 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
DIMINISH WHILE TRENDING TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
TUESDAY MORNING WILL TREND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.  CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER.  MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/3



000
FXUS64 KAMA 131155
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
555 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD IMPACT THE GUYMON TAF
SITE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND 15Z OR 16Z TODAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY 16Z TODAY AND
INCREASE TO SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z SUNDAY 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR SO...THEN VEERING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TO
08Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH
AROUND 08Z TO 11Z SUNDAY INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT AT THE GUYMON TAF
SITE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
AMARILLO AND DALHART TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNDERGOES A TEMPORARY FLATTENING TODAY...AND
THEN RESUMES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THURSDAY.  PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROF THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY NEAR ZONAL FLOW.

DRY AIR IN LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT BE REPLENISHED BY GULF MOISTURE AS
OCCASIONAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OCCUR.  DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND AROUND 20 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
DIMINISH WHILE TRENDING TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
TUESDAY MORNING WILL TREND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.  CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER.  MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. 03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/3




000
FXUS64 KSJT 131152
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
552 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the next 24 hours.
There are a few low clouds developing along and south of
I-35...but these are not expected to make much progress into our
area this morning, so have kept skies clear this morning. As
southerly flow increases today and tonight, moisture will also
increase, bringing low clouds into the area after midnight. Have
introduced MVFR conditions at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT at around 09Z.
20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The benign weather pattern with mild temperatures will continue
through Sunday morning. Light and variable winds this morning will
become south to southeast during the morning hours. This flow will
bring Gulf of Mexico moisture into our area today, raising dewpoints
into the 40s by early afternoon. Dewpoints are expected to
eventually rise into the lower 50s for the southern 2/3 of the area
by late tonight. This will result in warmer overnight temperatures
and lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Low clouds are also expected to
affect areas generally south of a Brownwood to Ozona line, although
these low clouds could affect areas as far north as the I-20
corridor by early Sunday morning. Highs today will be similar to
Friday with cooler temperatures in the Big Country of upper 60s to
near 70 with low to mid 70s elsewhere.

20

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Warmer than normal temperatures will continue next week with dry
conditions for west central Texas.

A few shortwave upper troughs will dive southeast across the Plains
to the mid-Mississippi Valley, sending weak cold fronts south
into west central Texas Sunday afternoon, Monday and again Tuesday
afternoon. While the main effect from these weak fronts will be
temporary wind shifts, daily high temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler across the Big Country, relative to the rest of our
area.

The warmest temperatures overall are expected Wednesday and
Thursday, as an upper ridge gradually shifts east across Texas.
Highs are expected to be in the 75-80 degree range Wednesday, and
in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. South winds will
develop Wednesday morning, increasing and becoming gusty through
Thursday. With this setup, low-level moisture will increase and
could have at least patchy low cloud development early Wednesday
and Thursday mornings.

An upper trough is progged to move east across the northern and
central Plains Thursday night, with trailing portion of associated
cold front moving south across much of west central Texas on Friday.
This looks to be another weak front, resulting in mainly just a wind
shift.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  51  72  43 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  75  51  77  38 /   0   0   5   0
Junction  74  49  73  37 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KEWX 131139 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF I-35
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION AND CURRENTLY ALL THE TAF SITES ARE VFR. JUST TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE REMAINS AND STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED AND CURRENTLY ARE PROGRESSING NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR KSAT/KSSF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KAUS AS SOME
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AFTER 13Z. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 16Z. WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME SE AFTER 17Z AT 10-15 KNOTS. TIGHTER
GRADIENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS NEAR 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT THE
I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. KDRT NOT LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL
NEAR 12Z WHEN MVFR CIGS DEVELOP. AFTER 09Z MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND FOG BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN



000
FXUS64 KEWX 131139 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF I-35
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION AND CURRENTLY ALL THE TAF SITES ARE VFR. JUST TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE REMAINS AND STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED AND CURRENTLY ARE PROGRESSING NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR KSAT/KSSF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KAUS AS SOME
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AFTER 13Z. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 16Z. WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME SE AFTER 17Z AT 10-15 KNOTS. TIGHTER
GRADIENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS NEAR 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT THE
I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. KDRT NOT LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL
NEAR 12Z WHEN MVFR CIGS DEVELOP. AFTER 09Z MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND FOG BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 131139 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
539 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF I-35
THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION AND CURRENTLY ALL THE TAF SITES ARE VFR. JUST TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE REMAINS AND STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED AND CURRENTLY ARE PROGRESSING NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED
SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR KSAT/KSSF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KAUS AS SOME
OF THE LOWER CLOUDS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AFTER 13Z. SHOULD
SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 16Z. WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME SE AFTER 17Z AT 10-15 KNOTS. TIGHTER
GRADIENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS NEAR 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AT THE
I-35 TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. KDRT NOT LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS UNTIL
NEAR 12Z WHEN MVFR CIGS DEVELOP. AFTER 09Z MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND FOG BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KCRP 131137
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
537 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALI AND VCT TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE
BY MID MORNING AS FOG DISSIPATES. LRD MAY BRIEFLY BECOME LIFR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. CRP LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR VFR AS FOG
HAS MOSTLY SHIFTED JUST WEST OF THE AIRPORT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
WINDS...THING MOST SITES WILL PRIMARILY SEE LOW CIGS OVER VIS
REDUCTIONS...BUT VCT/ALI MAY ALSO SEE VIS REDUCTIONS. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DENSE FOG IS IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...OVER A NEARLY IDENTICAL AREA TO YESTERDAY
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS FOG POSSIBLY PUSHING
WESTWARD INTO WEBB COUNTY THOUGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING
ONCE AGAIN...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TOUGH TO DISCERN THIS
MORNING AS IT HAS STALLED WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING..BUT BEST
ESTIMATE HAS IT MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF COULD DRIFT INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...IT WOULD HAVE
NO REAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS. THINK IT WILL STAY MOSTLY
NORTH THOUGH. EXPECT A STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE MAX TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS...BUT THINK WE SHOULD STILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LLJ
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH HIGHER RH LEVELS WOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS. TEMPS OUT WEST COULD
GET QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH DRIER SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S WEST...UPPER 70S EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

RIDGING WILL STILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFTER BRIEF SHOT OF
TROUGH MONDAY AND WEAK COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH.

MONDAY...CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
COME CLOSE TO OUR NORTHEAST BOARDER ON MONDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITH BETTER HEATING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO
THE LOWER-80S AREAWIDE.

TUESDAY - FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD...LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES. FIRE WEATHER THREATS MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY MID-
WEEK WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN PLACE WITH MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  58  78  58  82  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA          76  55  76  56  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            81  57  83  55  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             78  55  82  56  85  /   0  10  10   0  10
ROCKPORT          69  61  74  63  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           80  53  82  51  84  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        78  55  81  58  80  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       69  61  74  63  75  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...
     JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 131137
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
537 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALI AND VCT TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE
BY MID MORNING AS FOG DISSIPATES. LRD MAY BRIEFLY BECOME LIFR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. CRP LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR VFR AS FOG
HAS MOSTLY SHIFTED JUST WEST OF THE AIRPORT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
WINDS...THING MOST SITES WILL PRIMARILY SEE LOW CIGS OVER VIS
REDUCTIONS...BUT VCT/ALI MAY ALSO SEE VIS REDUCTIONS. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DENSE FOG IS IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...OVER A NEARLY IDENTICAL AREA TO YESTERDAY
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS FOG POSSIBLY PUSHING
WESTWARD INTO WEBB COUNTY THOUGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING
ONCE AGAIN...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TOUGH TO DISCERN THIS
MORNING AS IT HAS STALLED WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING..BUT BEST
ESTIMATE HAS IT MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF COULD DRIFT INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...IT WOULD HAVE
NO REAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS. THINK IT WILL STAY MOSTLY
NORTH THOUGH. EXPECT A STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE MAX TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS...BUT THINK WE SHOULD STILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LLJ
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH HIGHER RH LEVELS WOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS. TEMPS OUT WEST COULD
GET QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH DRIER SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S WEST...UPPER 70S EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

RIDGING WILL STILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFTER BRIEF SHOT OF
TROUGH MONDAY AND WEAK COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH.

MONDAY...CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
COME CLOSE TO OUR NORTHEAST BOARDER ON MONDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITH BETTER HEATING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO
THE LOWER-80S AREAWIDE.

TUESDAY - FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD...LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES. FIRE WEATHER THREATS MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY MID-
WEEK WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN PLACE WITH MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  58  78  58  82  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA          76  55  76  56  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            81  57  83  55  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             78  55  82  56  85  /   0  10  10   0  10
ROCKPORT          69  61  74  63  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           80  53  82  51  84  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        78  55  81  58  80  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       69  61  74  63  75  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...
     JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 131137
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
537 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALI AND VCT TAF SITES WILL IMPROVE
BY MID MORNING AS FOG DISSIPATES. LRD MAY BRIEFLY BECOME LIFR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. CRP LIKELY REMAIN MVFR OR VFR AS FOG
HAS MOSTLY SHIFTED JUST WEST OF THE AIRPORT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL SITES. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND
STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
WINDS...THING MOST SITES WILL PRIMARILY SEE LOW CIGS OVER VIS
REDUCTIONS...BUT VCT/ALI MAY ALSO SEE VIS REDUCTIONS. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DENSE FOG IS IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...OVER A NEARLY IDENTICAL AREA TO YESTERDAY
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS FOG POSSIBLY PUSHING
WESTWARD INTO WEBB COUNTY THOUGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING
ONCE AGAIN...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TOUGH TO DISCERN THIS
MORNING AS IT HAS STALLED WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING..BUT BEST
ESTIMATE HAS IT MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF COULD DRIFT INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...IT WOULD HAVE
NO REAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS. THINK IT WILL STAY MOSTLY
NORTH THOUGH. EXPECT A STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE MAX TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS...BUT THINK WE SHOULD STILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LLJ
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH HIGHER RH LEVELS WOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS. TEMPS OUT WEST COULD
GET QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH DRIER SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S WEST...UPPER 70S EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

RIDGING WILL STILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFTER BRIEF SHOT OF
TROUGH MONDAY AND WEAK COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH.

MONDAY...CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
COME CLOSE TO OUR NORTHEAST BOARDER ON MONDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITH BETTER HEATING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO
THE LOWER-80S AREAWIDE.

TUESDAY - FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD...LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES. FIRE WEATHER THREATS MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY MID-
WEEK WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN PLACE WITH MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  58  78  58  82  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA          76  55  76  56  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            81  57  83  55  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             78  55  82  56  85  /   0  10  10   0  10
ROCKPORT          69  61  74  63  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           80  53  82  51  84  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        78  55  81  58  80  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       69  61  74  63  75  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...
     JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KLUB 131136
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
536 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH E WINDS VEERING SW AND BECOMING GUSTY BY NOON. PVW COULD
SQUEAK OUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR VIS IN LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS
A.M...BUT OBSERVED TRENDS AND MOST MODEL DATA INDICATE THIS IS
TOO CONDITIONAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WAS MAINTAINING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE THIS MORNING. DESPITE DRIER DEWPOINTS
UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES
WERE NOTED IN AND AROUND SWISHER COUNTY AT 2 AM. REMOVED PATCHY
FOG MENTION FOR ALL BUT THESE AREAS AS TRENDS OVERALL ARE TOO
MARGINAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. SAID RIDGE WILL RETREAT
EAST TODAY AHEAD OF BACKING UPPER WINDS AND LEE TROUGHING FOCUSING
EAST OF THE RATON MESA. BREEZY SW GRADIENT WINDS BY MIDDAY WILL
ENHANCE THICKNESSES OVER ALL BUT OUR NERN ZONES WHERE THE COOLER
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE LATER TO DEPART. AS SUCH...BUMPED UP MAX
TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON PAR WITH THE MILDER MAV AND
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

SURFACE TROUGHING WILL EDGE CLOSER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED
TROUGH ARRIVING IN DRY NW FLOW. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
MOISTEN MAINLY MOST IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A THREAT OF ADVECTION FOG PARTICULARLY GIVEN
MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND MARGINAL DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHEAST.
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK AHEAD OF GUSTY N WINDS.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. FRONT WILL STALL OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO DRIVE ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS
KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IN PLACE BEFORE EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR TIMING AND
LOCATION WHEN IT STALLS OUT AS THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COOL AIR WITH THESE FRONT SO TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE APPROACHING 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY. IT
COULD ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY FOR THE CAPROCK AS THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOW FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS WHETHER WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
ANY PRECIPITATION OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY HELP SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION BUT
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL DEVELOP OR NOT SO DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93




000
FXUS64 KLUB 131136
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
536 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH E WINDS VEERING SW AND BECOMING GUSTY BY NOON. PVW COULD
SQUEAK OUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR VIS IN LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS
A.M...BUT OBSERVED TRENDS AND MOST MODEL DATA INDICATE THIS IS
TOO CONDITIONAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WAS MAINTAINING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE THIS MORNING. DESPITE DRIER DEWPOINTS
UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES
WERE NOTED IN AND AROUND SWISHER COUNTY AT 2 AM. REMOVED PATCHY
FOG MENTION FOR ALL BUT THESE AREAS AS TRENDS OVERALL ARE TOO
MARGINAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. SAID RIDGE WILL RETREAT
EAST TODAY AHEAD OF BACKING UPPER WINDS AND LEE TROUGHING FOCUSING
EAST OF THE RATON MESA. BREEZY SW GRADIENT WINDS BY MIDDAY WILL
ENHANCE THICKNESSES OVER ALL BUT OUR NERN ZONES WHERE THE COOLER
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE LATER TO DEPART. AS SUCH...BUMPED UP MAX
TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON PAR WITH THE MILDER MAV AND
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

SURFACE TROUGHING WILL EDGE CLOSER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED
TROUGH ARRIVING IN DRY NW FLOW. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
MOISTEN MAINLY MOST IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A THREAT OF ADVECTION FOG PARTICULARLY GIVEN
MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND MARGINAL DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHEAST.
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK AHEAD OF GUSTY N WINDS.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. FRONT WILL STALL OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO DRIVE ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS
KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IN PLACE BEFORE EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR TIMING AND
LOCATION WHEN IT STALLS OUT AS THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COOL AIR WITH THESE FRONT SO TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE APPROACHING 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY. IT
COULD ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY FOR THE CAPROCK AS THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOW FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS WHETHER WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
ANY PRECIPITATION OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY HELP SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION BUT
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL DEVELOP OR NOT SO DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93




000
FXUS64 KLUB 131136
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
536 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH E WINDS VEERING SW AND BECOMING GUSTY BY NOON. PVW COULD
SQUEAK OUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR VIS IN LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS
A.M...BUT OBSERVED TRENDS AND MOST MODEL DATA INDICATE THIS IS
TOO CONDITIONAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WAS MAINTAINING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE THIS MORNING. DESPITE DRIER DEWPOINTS
UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES
WERE NOTED IN AND AROUND SWISHER COUNTY AT 2 AM. REMOVED PATCHY
FOG MENTION FOR ALL BUT THESE AREAS AS TRENDS OVERALL ARE TOO
MARGINAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. SAID RIDGE WILL RETREAT
EAST TODAY AHEAD OF BACKING UPPER WINDS AND LEE TROUGHING FOCUSING
EAST OF THE RATON MESA. BREEZY SW GRADIENT WINDS BY MIDDAY WILL
ENHANCE THICKNESSES OVER ALL BUT OUR NERN ZONES WHERE THE COOLER
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE LATER TO DEPART. AS SUCH...BUMPED UP MAX
TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON PAR WITH THE MILDER MAV AND
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

SURFACE TROUGHING WILL EDGE CLOSER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED
TROUGH ARRIVING IN DRY NW FLOW. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
MOISTEN MAINLY MOST IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A THREAT OF ADVECTION FOG PARTICULARLY GIVEN
MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND MARGINAL DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHEAST.
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK AHEAD OF GUSTY N WINDS.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. FRONT WILL STALL OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO DRIVE ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS
KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IN PLACE BEFORE EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR TIMING AND
LOCATION WHEN IT STALLS OUT AS THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COOL AIR WITH THESE FRONT SO TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE APPROACHING 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY. IT
COULD ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY FOR THE CAPROCK AS THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOW FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS WHETHER WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
ANY PRECIPITATION OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY HELP SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION BUT
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL DEVELOP OR NOT SO DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93



000
FXUS64 KEPZ 131121
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
421 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED DURING THE
DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS HOVERING OVER OUR REGION HAS
STARTED TO FLATTEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DESCENDING CLOSE TO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GOING TO LEAD TO A WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW BEFORE A COLD FRONT REACHES US ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY DAMPEN A BIT TODAY`S TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING
RECORD VALUES.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME WIND GUSTS
IN AREA MOUNTAIN. OUR SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. THEREFORE MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN DUE TO SAID FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW
DEWPOINTS... BUT WE`RE STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

STARTING TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
BORDERLAND. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. CONSEQUENTLY... THESE ARE THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS DURING THE POPE`S VISIT NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS WESTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW
I`M STICKING WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VALID 13/12Z-14/12Z... VFR CONDS P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. LT E
TO SE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE S TO SW AOB 10KTS AFT 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... UPPER RIDGE OVER AREA WILL GET BROKEN DOWN OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH...AFTER A 5 TO 10 DEGREE COOL DOWN ON
MONDAY...WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS.
VENT RATES WILL RANGE FROM POOR TO GOOD THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
FALLING GENERALLY TO POOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77  42  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           75  39  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              74  34  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              73  36  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              56  29  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   74  35  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             70  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  75  32  74  34 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               75  33  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      76  42  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               74  35  75  33 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            79  39  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              73  42  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  78  38  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            75  37  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          74  39  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           74  31  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   75  33  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                75  35  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               74  41  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 66  37  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               64  31  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                64  36  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 69  33  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               73  34  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               74  33  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            70  24  69  25 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  71  32  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   75  24  73  25 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              75  24  73  24 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 72  33  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  77  35  76  35 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 76  32  76  32 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  35  75  34 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              76  38  73  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

CRESPO/BRICE



000
FXUS64 KEPZ 131121
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
421 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED DURING THE
DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS HOVERING OVER OUR REGION HAS
STARTED TO FLATTEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DESCENDING CLOSE TO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GOING TO LEAD TO A WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW BEFORE A COLD FRONT REACHES US ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY DAMPEN A BIT TODAY`S TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING
RECORD VALUES.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME WIND GUSTS
IN AREA MOUNTAIN. OUR SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. THEREFORE MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN DUE TO SAID FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW
DEWPOINTS... BUT WE`RE STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

STARTING TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
BORDERLAND. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. CONSEQUENTLY... THESE ARE THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS DURING THE POPE`S VISIT NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS WESTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW
I`M STICKING WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VALID 13/12Z-14/12Z... VFR CONDS P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. LT E
TO SE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE S TO SW AOB 10KTS AFT 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... UPPER RIDGE OVER AREA WILL GET BROKEN DOWN OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH...AFTER A 5 TO 10 DEGREE COOL DOWN ON
MONDAY...WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS.
VENT RATES WILL RANGE FROM POOR TO GOOD THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
FALLING GENERALLY TO POOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77  42  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           75  39  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              74  34  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              73  36  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              56  29  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   74  35  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             70  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  75  32  74  34 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               75  33  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      76  42  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               74  35  75  33 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            79  39  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              73  42  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  78  38  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            75  37  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          74  39  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           74  31  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   75  33  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                75  35  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               74  41  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 66  37  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               64  31  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                64  36  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 69  33  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               73  34  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               74  33  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            70  24  69  25 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  71  32  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   75  24  73  25 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              75  24  73  24 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 72  33  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  77  35  76  35 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 76  32  76  32 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  35  75  34 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              76  38  73  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

CRESPO/BRICE




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 131121
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
421 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED DURING THE
DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS HOVERING OVER OUR REGION HAS
STARTED TO FLATTEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DESCENDING CLOSE TO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GOING TO LEAD TO A WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW BEFORE A COLD FRONT REACHES US ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY DAMPEN A BIT TODAY`S TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING
RECORD VALUES.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME WIND GUSTS
IN AREA MOUNTAIN. OUR SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. THEREFORE MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN DUE TO SAID FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW
DEWPOINTS... BUT WE`RE STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

STARTING TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
BORDERLAND. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. CONSEQUENTLY... THESE ARE THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS DURING THE POPE`S VISIT NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS WESTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW
I`M STICKING WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VALID 13/12Z-14/12Z... VFR CONDS P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. LT E
TO SE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE S TO SW AOB 10KTS AFT 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... UPPER RIDGE OVER AREA WILL GET BROKEN DOWN OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH...AFTER A 5 TO 10 DEGREE COOL DOWN ON
MONDAY...WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS.
VENT RATES WILL RANGE FROM POOR TO GOOD THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
FALLING GENERALLY TO POOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77  42  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           75  39  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              74  34  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              73  36  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              56  29  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   74  35  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             70  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  75  32  74  34 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               75  33  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      76  42  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               74  35  75  33 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            79  39  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              73  42  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  78  38  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            75  37  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          74  39  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           74  31  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   75  33  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                75  35  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               74  41  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 66  37  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               64  31  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                64  36  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 69  33  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               73  34  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               74  33  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            70  24  69  25 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  71  32  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   75  24  73  25 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              75  24  73  24 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 72  33  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  77  35  76  35 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 76  32  76  32 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  35  75  34 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              76  38  73  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

CRESPO/BRICE




000
FXUS64 KAMA 131108
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
508 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNDERGOES A TEMPORARY FLATTENING TODAY...AND
THEN RESUMES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THURSDAY.  PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROF THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY NEAR ZONAL FLOW.

DRY AIR IN LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT BE REPLENISHED BY GULF MOISTURE AS
OCCASIONAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OCCUR.  DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND AROUND 20 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
DIMINISH WHILE TRENDING TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
TUESDAY MORNING WILL TREND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.  CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER.  MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. 03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  36  62  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  57  32  60  30  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              71  33  60  30  65 /   0   0   0   5   0
BORGER TX                  68  38  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              72  36  63  30  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  70  37  63  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               65  39  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 73  33  61  30  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  69  33  61  31  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                71  36  63  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                57  34  61  31  66 /   0   0   0   5   0
PAMPA TX                   64  36  60  32  64 /   0   0   0   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                60  38  62  34  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              62  39  64  35  68 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/03




000
FXUS64 KAMA 131108
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
508 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH PERIODS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNDERGOES A TEMPORARY FLATTENING TODAY...AND
THEN RESUMES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
THURSDAY.  PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROF THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO BE FOLLOWED BY NEAR ZONAL FLOW.

DRY AIR IN LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT BE REPLENISHED BY GULF MOISTURE AS
OCCASIONAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OCCUR.  DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND AROUND 20 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
DIMINISH WHILE TRENDING TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.  LIGHT
NORTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
TUESDAY MORNING WILL TREND TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.  CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES
ON THURSDAY AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER.  MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. 03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  36  62  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  57  32  60  30  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              71  33  60  30  65 /   0   0   0   5   0
BORGER TX                  68  38  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              72  36  63  30  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  70  37  63  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               65  39  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 73  33  61  30  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  69  33  61  31  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                71  36  63  31  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                57  34  61  31  66 /   0   0   0   5   0
PAMPA TX                   64  36  60  32  64 /   0   0   0   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                60  38  62  34  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              62  39  64  35  68 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/03



000
FXUS64 KEWX 131039
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 131039
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN



000
FXUS64 KEWX 131039
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
439 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG CHANCES
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TILL 9AM AND THE LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT PATCHY FOG AS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAINS AS
EXPECTED WITH DENSE FOG BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. HRRR
EXTRAPOLATION ALONG WITH NAM/GFS/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE
KIND OF VISIBILITIES (1/2-1/4 MILE) MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 9AM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS
HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A STRATUS DECK VS. FOG. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXING IN NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH MID-MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY ERODING. DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FUNNELED
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GFS/EC MODEL OUTPUT OF H925
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE THE CLOUDS, LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE CLIMB INTO THE 69-72F RANGE ACROSS THE NE SECTION OF THE
REGION. WARMER READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN.

SLIGHTLY DEEPER H5 TROUGHING WILL SHIFT OVER TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THAT WILL SUBTLELY ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
SHALLOW MOIST SE FLOW. LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WHILE MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE WARMER START
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED H925 TEMPS IN THE 21-15C RANGE WEST
TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...

ONLY HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WILL A LOW-END (20%) RAIN CHANCE
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BUT
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

CONUS PATTERN ON MONDAY PER THE GFS/EC WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING
YET DISPLACED H5 SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL LIKELY MEAN
NEGLIGIBLE RAIN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LOW COLUMNAR MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP RAIN COVERAGE LOW. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED TO EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO CANADIAN AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TEXAS WILL BE WELL DISPLACED FROM THE POLAR JET
STREAM TO THE NORTH IN ADDITION TO AN INACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. LOW-
LVL SOUTHEAST AND MID-LVL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK H5 TROUGHING TO A H5 RIDGE PATTERN.
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH MORNING CLOUDS RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
QUICK MIX OUT TO SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  56  74  55  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  53  74  52  75 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  53  76  52  78 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  52  73  49  74 /   0  -   10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  52  77  49  80 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  54  73  53  74 /   0  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  52  77  47  79 /   0   0  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  54  75  53  76 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  55  74  57  76 /  -   -   20  20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  54  75  52  77 /   0  -   10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  54  77  52  79 /   0  -   10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KBRO 131018 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
418 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...INCLUDED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BROOKS AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES UNTIL 8 A.M. IN THE MORNING PACKAGE BASED ON OBS
ALONG THE U.S.281/I-69C CORRIDOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN
OFF AROUND MID MORNING WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL UNDER A MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH A SURGE OF NEW AIR ARRIVING OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
NORTH GULF FROM THE PLAINS TODAY.

TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER FOG
EPISODE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL REORIENT THE GRADIENT...
VEERING WINDS CLOSER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY MOSTLY CLR...AN INCREASE IN LOW CLDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNDAY. A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING GULF HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEST TX LOWER PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON SUN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TAKING OVER FROM MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER
OR EVEN MID 80S INLAND. ALSO BY SUNDAY...THE OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL BE
TO THE EAST WHILE A BROAD...POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO WEST TEXAS TEMPORARILY TAKES OVER
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WARM WEEK IS IN
STORE FEATURING HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY. THERE
WILL BE A 500MB S/W TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
VERY LITTLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY. NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION SO NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TODAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH OVER THE THE
NORTH GULF TODAY WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY. ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE INBOUND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SCEC CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT IN TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/65




000
FXUS64 KBRO 131018 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
418 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...INCLUDED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BROOKS AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES UNTIL 8 A.M. IN THE MORNING PACKAGE BASED ON OBS
ALONG THE U.S.281/I-69C CORRIDOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN
OFF AROUND MID MORNING WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL UNDER A MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH A SURGE OF NEW AIR ARRIVING OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
NORTH GULF FROM THE PLAINS TODAY.

TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER FOG
EPISODE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL REORIENT THE GRADIENT...
VEERING WINDS CLOSER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY MOSTLY CLR...AN INCREASE IN LOW CLDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNDAY. A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING GULF HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEST TX LOWER PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON SUN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TAKING OVER FROM MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER
OR EVEN MID 80S INLAND. ALSO BY SUNDAY...THE OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL BE
TO THE EAST WHILE A BROAD...POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO WEST TEXAS TEMPORARILY TAKES OVER
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WARM WEEK IS IN
STORE FEATURING HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY. THERE
WILL BE A 500MB S/W TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
VERY LITTLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY. NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION SO NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TODAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH OVER THE THE
NORTH GULF TODAY WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY. ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE INBOUND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SCEC CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT IN TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/65




000
FXUS64 KBRO 131018 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
418 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...INCLUDED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BROOKS AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES UNTIL 8 A.M. IN THE MORNING PACKAGE BASED ON OBS
ALONG THE U.S.281/I-69C CORRIDOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN
OFF AROUND MID MORNING WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL UNDER A MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH A SURGE OF NEW AIR ARRIVING OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
NORTH GULF FROM THE PLAINS TODAY.

TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER FOG
EPISODE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL REORIENT THE GRADIENT...
VEERING WINDS CLOSER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY MOSTLY CLR...AN INCREASE IN LOW CLDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNDAY. A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING GULF HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEST TX LOWER PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON SUN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TAKING OVER FROM MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER
OR EVEN MID 80S INLAND. ALSO BY SUNDAY...THE OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL BE
TO THE EAST WHILE A BROAD...POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO WEST TEXAS TEMPORARILY TAKES OVER
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WARM WEEK IS IN
STORE FEATURING HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY. THERE
WILL BE A 500MB S/W TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
VERY LITTLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY. NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION SO NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TODAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH OVER THE THE
NORTH GULF TODAY WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY. ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE INBOUND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SCEC CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT IN TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ250-253.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/65



000
FXUS64 KSJT 131009
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
409 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The benign weather pattern with mild temperatures will continue
through Sunday morning. Light and variable winds this morning will
become south to southeast during the morning hours. This flow will
bring Gulf of Mexico moisture into our area today, raising dewpoints
into the 40s by early afternoon. Dewpoints are expected to
eventually rise into the lower 50s for the southern 2/3 of the area
by late tonight. This will result in warmer overnight temperatures
and lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Low clouds are also expected to
affect areas generally south of a Brownwood to Ozona line, although
these low clouds could affect areas as far north as the I-20
corridor by early Sunday morning. Highs today will be similar to
Friday with cooler temperatures in the Big Country of upper 60s to
near 70 with low to mid 70s elsewhere.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Warmer than normal temperatures will continue next week with dry
conditions for west central Texas.

A few shortwave upper troughs will dive southeast across the Plains
to the mid-Mississippi Valley, sending weak cold fronts south
into west central Texas Sunday afternoon, Monday and again Tuesday
afternoon. While the main effect from these weak fronts will be
temporary wind shifts, daily high temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler across the Big Country, relative to the rest of our
area.

The warmest temperatures overall are expected Wednesday and
Thursday, as an upper ridge gradually shifts east across Texas.
Highs are expected to be in the 75-80 degree range Wednesday, and
in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. South winds will
develop Wednesday morning, increasing and becoming gusty through
Thursday. With this setup, low-level moisture will increase and
could have at least patchy low cloud development early Wednesday
and Thursday mornings.

An upper trough is progged to move east across the northern and
central Plains Thursday night, with trailing portion of associated
cold front moving south across much of west central Texas on Friday.
This looks to be another weak front, resulting in mainly just a wind
shift.

19

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  51  72  43 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  75  51  77  38 /   0   0   5   0
Junction  74  49  73  37 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KCRP 130959
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
359 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DENSE FOG IS IN PLACE ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...OVER A NEARLY IDENTICAL AREA TO YESTERDAY
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS FOG POSSIBLY PUSHING
WESTWARD INTO WEBB COUNTY THOUGH. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING
ONCE AGAIN...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TOUGH TO DISCERN THIS
MORNING AS IT HAS STALLED WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING..BUT BEST
ESTIMATE HAS IT MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF COULD DRIFT INTO SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...IT WOULD HAVE
NO REAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST DETAILS. THINK IT WILL STAY MOSTLY
NORTH THOUGH. EXPECT A STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE MAX TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE
AND CLOUDS...BUT THINK WE SHOULD STILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LLJ
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH HIGHER RH LEVELS WOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS. TEMPS OUT WEST COULD
GET QUITE WARM TOMORROW WITH DRIER SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S WEST...UPPER 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

RIDGING WILL STILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE AFTER BRIEF SHOT OF
TROUGH MONDAY AND WEAK COOL FRONT SLIDE THROUGH.

MONDAY...CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
COME CLOSE TO OUR NORTHEAST BOARDER ON MONDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITH BETTER HEATING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO
THE LOWER-80S AREAWIDE.

TUESDAY - FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD...LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES. FIRE WEATHER THREATS MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY MID-
WEEK WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN PLACE WITH MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  58  78  58  82  /  10  10  10   0  10
VICTORIA          76  55  76  56  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            81  57  83  55  85  /   0   0   0   0  10
ALICE             78  55  82  56  85  /   0  10  10   0  10
ROCKPORT          69  61  74  63  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           80  53  82  51  84  /   0   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        78  55  81  58  80  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       69  61  74  63  75  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...
     JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
GH/77...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KLUB 130942
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
342 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...
WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WAS MAINTAINING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE THIS MORNING. DESPITE DRIER DEWPOINTS
UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES
WERE NOTED IN AND AROUND SWISHER COUNTY AT 2 AM. REMOVED PATCHY
FOG MENTION FOR ALL BUT THESE AREAS AS TRENDS OVERALL ARE TOO
MARGINAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. SAID RIDGE WILL RETREAT
EAST TODAY AHEAD OF BACKING UPPER WINDS AND LEE TROUGHING FOCUSING
EAST OF THE RATON MESA. BREEZY SW GRADIENT WINDS BY MIDDAY WILL
ENHANCE THICKNESSES OVER ALL BUT OUR NERN ZONES WHERE THE COOLER
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE LATER TO DEPART. AS SUCH...BUMPED UP MAX
TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON PAR WITH THE MILDER MAV AND
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

SURFACE TROUGHING WILL EDGE CLOSER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED
TROUGH ARRIVING IN DRY NW FLOW. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
MOISTEN MAINLY MOST IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A THREAT OF ADVECTION FOG PARTICULARLY GIVEN
MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND MARGINAL DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHEAST.
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK AHEAD OF GUSTY N WINDS.

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. FRONT WILL STALL OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO DRIVE ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS
KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IN PLACE BEFORE EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR TIMING AND
LOCATION WHEN IT STALLS OUT AS THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COOL AIR WITH THESE FRONT SO TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE APPROACHING 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY. IT
COULD ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY FOR THE CAPROCK AS THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOW FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS WHETHER WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
ANY PRECIPITATION OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY HELP SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION BUT
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL DEVELOP OR NOT SO DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14




000
FXUS64 KHGX 130937
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
337 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
DEW POINTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES) ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AHEAD OF IT...VALUES IN THE
LOWER 50S ARE HELPING TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME READINGS
DOWN TO 1/4 MILE WHERE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. EXPECT THE
DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE WORKING SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH FOG
DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME MODELS HAVE AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES COMING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
OUR EASTERN AREAS AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND DRAGS
A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST HAS
CHANGED LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. EXPECT SEVERAL DRY DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS
AND WARM AFTERNOONS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE.  42
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL CREATE EASTERLY WINDS TODAY...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY
SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE
MODERATE WEEKEND WIND SPEEDS...PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN/OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. RESPONDING SEAS WILL LIFT
FROM THIS MORNING`S NEAR 2 FOOT HEIGHTS TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVE
HEIGHTS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSAGE
MONDAY WILL INCREASE (PRIMARILY EASTERN WATER) SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. A COUPLE OF WEAK BOUNDARY PASSAGES EARLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SWING WINDS TEMPORARILY OFFSHORE...RETURNING
ONSHORE FLOW BY EARLY THURSDAY. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  52  71  56  71 /  10  10  20  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              68  51  71  58  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  56  69  58  68 /  10  10  20  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KMAF 130930
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours as southerly flow
increases slightly.  A few high clouds will be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler today than
yesterday behind a weak backdoor cold front that is coming into
the area this morning. Low level moisture will increase this
afternoon as surface winds become southerly. The upper flow will
start to become more zonal today as a shortwave/upper trough moves
into the Northern Plains.

This trough will send a cold front into the area during the day on
Sunday and another one on Monday resulting in slightly cooler but
above normal temperatures. An upper trough begins to deepen from the
Great Lakes region south to the Mississippi Valley on Monday.
Another cold front is expected to push into the CWA on Tuesday but
will not have much of an influence on temperatures.  Temperatures
will warm up into the upper 70s to lower 80s beginning on Wednesday
as upper ridging builds over the region.  The ECMWF is hinting at a
possible chance of precipitation next Saturday but the upper pattern
is not in agreement with the GFS so kept conditions dry for the
whole forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  46  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       74  37  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         76  48  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  77  45  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  43  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          73  38  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  33  73  30 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  45  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  45  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74  40  73  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44




000
FXUS64 KMAF 130927
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
327 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler today than
yesterday behind a weak backdoor cold front that is coming into
the area this morning. Low level moisture will increase this
afternoon as surface winds become southerly. The upper flow will
start to become more zonal today as a shortwave/upper trough moves
into the Northern Plains.

This trough will send a cold front into the area during the day on
Sunday and another one on Monday resulting in slightly cooler but
above normal temperatures. An upper trough begins to deepen from the
Great Lakes region south to the Mississippi Valley on Monday.
Another cold front is expected to push into the CWA on Tuesday but
will not have much of an influence on temperatures.  Temperatures
will warm up into the upper 70s to lower 80s beginning on Wednesday
as upper ridging builds over the region.  The ECMWF is hinting at a
possible chance of precipitation next Saturday but the upper pattern
is not in agreement with the GFS so kept conditions dry for the
whole forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  46  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       74  37  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         76  48  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  77  45  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  43  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          73  38  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  33  73  30 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  45  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  45  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74  40  73  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80




000
FXUS64 KBRO 130907
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
307 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN
OFF AROUND MID MORNING WITH THE HELP OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEN LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 80S INLAND
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL UNDER A MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH A SURGE OF NEW AIR ARRIVING OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
NORTH GULF FROM THE PLAINS TODAY.

TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER FOG
EPISODE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL REORIENT THE GRADIENT...
VEERING WINDS CLOSER TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY MOSTLY CLR...AN INCREASE IN LOW CLDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNDAY. A TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING GULF HIGH PRESSURE AND
WEST TX LOWER PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ON SUN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TAKING OVER FROM MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER
OR EVEN MID 80S INLAND. ALSO BY SUNDAY...THE OVERHEAD RIDGE WILL BE
TO THE EAST WHILE A BROAD...POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN TO WEST TEXAS TEMPORARILY TAKES OVER
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WARM WEEK IS IN
STORE FEATURING HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY. THERE
WILL BE A 500MB S/W TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
VERY LITTLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY. NOT A LOT
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LIFT REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION SO NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND EVENTUALLY MOVES OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM. WE WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TODAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH OVER THE THE
NORTH GULF TODAY WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT WITH LOWER PRESSURE
OVER WEST TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY. ADVISORY CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE INBOUND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SCEC CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT IN TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  61  77  63 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          75  59  78  62 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            78  57  80  61 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              80  58  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      82  57  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  63  73  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BIRCHFIELD




000
FXUS64 KFWD 130855
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
255 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE RECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION....HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAYS...PUTTING TEMPS IN THE SEASONALLY NORMAL RANGE. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREE WARMER...AROUND 50 DEGREES...DUE
TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...WITH VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.
QUIETER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THROUGH THE
WEEK.

78

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1112 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO 00Z TAFS AS CHALLENGES CONTINUE REGARDING
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z-18Z SATURDAY.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR
OVER S-CENTRAL TX. SURFACE-BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ON AREA PROFILERS
CONTINUE TO KEEP DRIER NE FLOW INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. THIS WILL HOLD VFR CONDS AND NE WINDS NEAR 10
KTS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OCCURS OT THE WEST...WIND DIRECTION AT ALL
AIRPORTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH LOW VFR CIGS
STREAMING UP FROM THE GULF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
FALL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  51  65  49  66 /   0   5  20  40  30
WACO, TX              67  51  70  49  69 /   0  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             55  41  54  44  62 /   0   5  20  50  40
DENTON, TX            61  49  65  45  65 /   0   5  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX          59  49  63  47  64 /   0   5  20  50  30
DALLAS, TX            62  51  67  50  66 /   0   5  20  50  30
TERRELL, TX           61  49  64  49  65 /   0   5  20  50  40
CORSICANA, TX         64  51  69  52  68 /   0   5  20  40  40
TEMPLE, TX            67  51  70  50  71 /   0   5  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  50  69  45  67 /   0   5  10  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

/78




000
FXUS64 KHGX 130553
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1153 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
QUICK FORECAST UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND JACKSON/WHARTON/FORT BEND. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SHOWS CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF VISIBILITIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LOWER ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA... WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MID MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  64  50  71  57 /   0  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              51  66  49  71  59 /   0  10  10  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  62  54  69  59 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14



000
FXUS64 KHGX 130553
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1153 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
QUICK FORECAST UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND JACKSON/WHARTON/FORT BEND. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SHOWS CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF VISIBILITIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LOWER ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA... WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MID MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  64  50  71  57 /   0  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              51  66  49  71  59 /   0  10  10  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  62  54  69  59 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14




000
FXUS64 KHGX 130553
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1153 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
QUICK FORECAST UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND JACKSON/WHARTON/FORT BEND. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SHOWS CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF VISIBILITIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LOWER ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA... WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MID MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT
CLEARS THE REGION.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  64  50  71  57 /   0  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              51  66  49  71  59 /   0  10  10  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  62  54  69  59 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14




000
FXUS64 KBRO 130548 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1148 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCALLY DENSE FOG LIKELY IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT. BRO
IS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO LOCALIZED DENSE FOG AND EXPECT LIFR VSBY
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME ON EITHER SIDE OF DAWN. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWR RGV. GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE FOR HRL
AND MFE...BUT EXPECT SOME VSBY RESTRICTION AT THOSE LOCATIONS AS
WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS S TEXAS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE TONIGHT INTO SAT KEEPING THE AREA
UNDER DRY WEATHER PATTERN AND LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TONIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL SHIFT SE AND EAST UP TO 850 MB
SURGING IN THAT MOIST AIR MASS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BY MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT`S LOW WILL RANGE BETWEEN 55 TO 59
DEGREES AND DEW POINTS IN THE SAME RANGE. SOME AREAS FURTHER NORTH
COULD SEE MORE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL DUE TO LIGHT AND CALM WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

TOMORROW...SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS WHILE STRONG COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MAKES
ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE SE PLAINS. FRONT WILL STAY FURTHER EAST THAT
WILL NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES DIRECTLY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. IT
WILL ONLY BRING THEM DOWN TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER STORY. AS THE FRONT SURGES
SOUTHEAST...THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THE BREEZE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. SAT NIGHT LOW`S RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A MAJOR 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON SUN AND MON.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL USHER THROUGH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE RGV ON MON WITH LITTLE OR NO CAA OCCURRING AFTER
THE FROPA. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...A LARGE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK WITH VERY LIMITED ATMS MOISTURE LEVELS EVIDENT. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING LONGER RANGE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER
MAJOR 500 MB TROUGH AXIS DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND
THIS WILL INCREASE THE PGF LATER NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A LITTLE
BREEZIER CONDITIONS.

FOR TEMPS IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WENT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
WARMER ECMWF NUMBERS AS THE MEX NUMBERS APPEAR TOO COOL
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL RIDGING.

THE 500 MB FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH DAY 7. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS
NUMBERS ARE IN RESONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 FOR BOTH TEMPS
AND POPS. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH LOW SEAS AS THE GRADIENT IS
VERY WEAK. INTO SATURDAY THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE GULF. SCEC IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND THE LAGUNA AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE BREEZE CONTINUES. SEAS WILL
BUILD BUT REMAIN BELOW 4 TO 5 FEET. NO SCA IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PGF WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MAINTAINS A LIGHT TO MODERATE SE SURFACE
FLOW. THE PGF WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A
SURFACE LOW STARTS TO SPIN UP OVER THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SCEC CONDITIONS AS NEXT WEEKEND
APPROACHES. THE WEAK FROPA ON MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
WIND SHIFT AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST. BUT THIS WILL BE PRETTY
SHORT LIVED AS THE SE SURFACE FLOW RETURNS PRETTY QUICKLY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55



000
FXUS64 KBRO 130548 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1148 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCALLY DENSE FOG LIKELY IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT. BRO
IS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO LOCALIZED DENSE FOG AND EXPECT LIFR VSBY
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME ON EITHER SIDE OF DAWN. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWR RGV. GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE FOR HRL
AND MFE...BUT EXPECT SOME VSBY RESTRICTION AT THOSE LOCATIONS AS
WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS S TEXAS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE TONIGHT INTO SAT KEEPING THE AREA
UNDER DRY WEATHER PATTERN AND LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TONIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL SHIFT SE AND EAST UP TO 850 MB
SURGING IN THAT MOIST AIR MASS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BY MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT`S LOW WILL RANGE BETWEEN 55 TO 59
DEGREES AND DEW POINTS IN THE SAME RANGE. SOME AREAS FURTHER NORTH
COULD SEE MORE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL DUE TO LIGHT AND CALM WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

TOMORROW...SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS WHILE STRONG COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MAKES
ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE SE PLAINS. FRONT WILL STAY FURTHER EAST THAT
WILL NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES DIRECTLY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. IT
WILL ONLY BRING THEM DOWN TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER STORY. AS THE FRONT SURGES
SOUTHEAST...THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THE BREEZE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. SAT NIGHT LOW`S RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A MAJOR 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON SUN AND MON.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL USHER THROUGH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE RGV ON MON WITH LITTLE OR NO CAA OCCURRING AFTER
THE FROPA. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...A LARGE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK WITH VERY LIMITED ATMS MOISTURE LEVELS EVIDENT. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING LONGER RANGE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER
MAJOR 500 MB TROUGH AXIS DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND
THIS WILL INCREASE THE PGF LATER NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A LITTLE
BREEZIER CONDITIONS.

FOR TEMPS IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WENT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
WARMER ECMWF NUMBERS AS THE MEX NUMBERS APPEAR TOO COOL
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL RIDGING.

THE 500 MB FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH DAY 7. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS
NUMBERS ARE IN RESONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 FOR BOTH TEMPS
AND POPS. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH LOW SEAS AS THE GRADIENT IS
VERY WEAK. INTO SATURDAY THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE GULF. SCEC IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND THE LAGUNA AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE BREEZE CONTINUES. SEAS WILL
BUILD BUT REMAIN BELOW 4 TO 5 FEET. NO SCA IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PGF WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MAINTAINS A LIGHT TO MODERATE SE SURFACE
FLOW. THE PGF WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A
SURFACE LOW STARTS TO SPIN UP OVER THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SCEC CONDITIONS AS NEXT WEEKEND
APPROACHES. THE WEAK FROPA ON MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
WIND SHIFT AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST. BUT THIS WILL BE PRETTY
SHORT LIVED AS THE SE SURFACE FLOW RETURNS PRETTY QUICKLY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 130548 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1148 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCALLY DENSE FOG LIKELY IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT. BRO
IS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO LOCALIZED DENSE FOG AND EXPECT LIFR VSBY
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME ON EITHER SIDE OF DAWN. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWR RGV. GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE FOR HRL
AND MFE...BUT EXPECT SOME VSBY RESTRICTION AT THOSE LOCATIONS AS
WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS S TEXAS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE TONIGHT INTO SAT KEEPING THE AREA
UNDER DRY WEATHER PATTERN AND LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TONIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL SHIFT SE AND EAST UP TO 850 MB
SURGING IN THAT MOIST AIR MASS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BY MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT`S LOW WILL RANGE BETWEEN 55 TO 59
DEGREES AND DEW POINTS IN THE SAME RANGE. SOME AREAS FURTHER NORTH
COULD SEE MORE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL DUE TO LIGHT AND CALM WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

TOMORROW...SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS WHILE STRONG COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MAKES
ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE SE PLAINS. FRONT WILL STAY FURTHER EAST THAT
WILL NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES DIRECTLY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. IT
WILL ONLY BRING THEM DOWN TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER STORY. AS THE FRONT SURGES
SOUTHEAST...THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THE BREEZE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. SAT NIGHT LOW`S RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A MAJOR 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON SUN AND MON.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL USHER THROUGH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE RGV ON MON WITH LITTLE OR NO CAA OCCURRING AFTER
THE FROPA. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...A LARGE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK WITH VERY LIMITED ATMS MOISTURE LEVELS EVIDENT. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING LONGER RANGE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER
MAJOR 500 MB TROUGH AXIS DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND
THIS WILL INCREASE THE PGF LATER NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A LITTLE
BREEZIER CONDITIONS.

FOR TEMPS IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WENT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
WARMER ECMWF NUMBERS AS THE MEX NUMBERS APPEAR TOO COOL
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL RIDGING.

THE 500 MB FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH DAY 7. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS
NUMBERS ARE IN RESONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 FOR BOTH TEMPS
AND POPS. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH LOW SEAS AS THE GRADIENT IS
VERY WEAK. INTO SATURDAY THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE GULF. SCEC IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND THE LAGUNA AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE BREEZE CONTINUES. SEAS WILL
BUILD BUT REMAIN BELOW 4 TO 5 FEET. NO SCA IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PGF WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MAINTAINS A LIGHT TO MODERATE SE SURFACE
FLOW. THE PGF WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A
SURFACE LOW STARTS TO SPIN UP OVER THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SCEC CONDITIONS AS NEXT WEEKEND
APPROACHES. THE WEAK FROPA ON MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
WIND SHIFT AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST. BUT THIS WILL BE PRETTY
SHORT LIVED AS THE SE SURFACE FLOW RETURNS PRETTY QUICKLY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55




000
FXUS64 KLUB 130526
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1126 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ENSUED TONIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG AND/OR
MVFR CIGS. STILL DEBATABLE WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR EITHER PHENOMENA TO GENERATE BUT WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HAVING FORMED WELL NORTH OF ALL THREE
TERMINALS...MAKES IT PLAUSIBLE. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS OF 14-16 KTS OR SO
LEADING TO THE SCOURING OUT OF ANY LINGERING CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG...AND FEW-SCT VFR CIGS PASSING OVERHEAD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS WIND PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO TURN
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND IS
UNKNOWN. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING MOS CAT 1 CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLEAR SIDE. AS OF NOW
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL COME FROM UPSLOPING WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GOMEX.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF
PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND
STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...AS VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN THERE LATER THAN THE REST
OF THE FA. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SOAR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TOUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SLACKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON`T BE
AFFECTED MUCH AT ALL WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR LIFT BRUSHING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AROUND 12 UTC MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. MINOR
FRONTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
FLAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE-RIDGING WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER MUCH OTHER
THAN TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER MINOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REKINDLED THURSDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KHGX 130519
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1119 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP NEAR KLBX AND SREF/HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FOG WILL EXPAND AND POSSIBLY IMPACT KGLS AND KSGR. A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDED E-E ACROSS SE TX. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SAG
SOUTH WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT (BETWEEN 09-12Z).
A LIGHT NE WIND WILL VEER TO THE EAST SAT MORNING AND SOUTHEAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. CIGS MIGHT IMPROVE BRIEFLY LATE SAT AFTN BUT CIGS
WILL LIKELY FALL AGAIN BY MID EVENING WITH MVFR CONDS SAT NIGHT.
43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

UPDATE...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 8 PM CST SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /ROUGHLY FROM WASHINGTON CO TO LIBERTY
CO/... WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S NORTH OF
THE FRONT AND REMAINING IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH OF IT. AS A
RESULT... ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF RADIATION FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO
APPEARS POSSIBLE AROUND THE BAYS AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS
ACROSS COASTAL WATERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. THE MAIN
FORECAST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE COVERAGE TO AREAS OF FOG
INLAND BASED ON TRENDS IN THE SREF/HRRR VISIBILITIES. EXPECT FOG
TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TOWARD THE
GULF TONIGHT. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LATER TONIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL HELP DRIVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER STATE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN SHIFT AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE CHANCES
FOR FOG. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. THE BEST TIME PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE FOG AREA LIFTING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST OF THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED THUNDER IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING PROFILES ARE NOT AS CONDUCIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT. GFSBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY LOOK BETTER FOR MONDAY
THAN THE MODEL HAS SHOWN OVER THE PAST FOUR OR FIVE MODEL RUNS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION OF PATCHY FOG FORMING ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL GO
ANOTHER FEW CYCLES AND LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL
RUNS.

40

MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE MARINE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME ENE-E AS THIS OCCURS AND
WILL INCREASE IN SPEED. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS WILL BE
REQUIRED OFFSHORE. WINDS SHOULD SWING RIGHT BACK TO THE SE SAT
NIGHT AND REMAIN AT MODERATE SPEEDS UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST MON AFTN. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO THE SE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE REGION.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT
COULD BE A SET UP FOR A MULTI-DAY SEA FOG ISSUE - DEPENDENT ON
EVENTUAL WATER TEMPS AT THAT TIME. WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE LATER.
47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  64  50  71  57 /   0  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              51  66  49  71  59 /   0  10  10  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  62  54  69  59 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KFWD 130512 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1112 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO 00Z TAFS AS CHALLENGES CONTINUE REGARDING
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z-18Z SATURDAY.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR
OVER S-CENTRAL TX. SURFACE-BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ON AREA PROFILERS
CONTINUE TO KEEP DRIER NE FLOW INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. THIS WILL HOLD VFR CONDS AND NE WINDS NEAR 10
KTS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OCCURS OT THE WEST...WIND DIRECTION AT ALL
AIRPORTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH LOW VFR CIGS
STREAMING UP FROM THE GULF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
FALL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

05/

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AS
A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WHICH WILL OFFSET THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MOSTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WITH A FEW WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION MONDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  60  51  65  49 /   0   0   5  20  40
WACO, TX              43  65  51  70  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             35  53  41  54  44 /   0   0   5  20  50
DENTON, TX            36  59  49  65  45 /   0   0   5  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          37  57  49  63  47 /   0   0   5  20  50
DALLAS, TX            42  60  51  67  50 /   0   0  10  20  50
TERRELL, TX           40  59  49  64  49 /   0   0   5  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         43  62  51  69  52 /   5   0  10  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            44  65  51  70  50 /   5   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  63  50  69  45 /   0   0   5  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 130512 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1112 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO 00Z TAFS AS CHALLENGES CONTINUE REGARDING
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z-18Z SATURDAY.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR
OVER S-CENTRAL TX. SURFACE-BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ON AREA PROFILERS
CONTINUE TO KEEP DRIER NE FLOW INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. THIS WILL HOLD VFR CONDS AND NE WINDS NEAR 10
KTS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OCCURS OT THE WEST...WIND DIRECTION AT ALL
AIRPORTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH LOW VFR CIGS
STREAMING UP FROM THE GULF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
FALL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

05/

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AS
A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WHICH WILL OFFSET THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MOSTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WITH A FEW WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION MONDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  60  51  65  49 /   0   0   5  20  40
WACO, TX              43  65  51  70  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             35  53  41  54  44 /   0   0   5  20  50
DENTON, TX            36  59  49  65  45 /   0   0   5  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          37  57  49  63  47 /   0   0   5  20  50
DALLAS, TX            42  60  51  67  50 /   0   0  10  20  50
TERRELL, TX           40  59  49  64  49 /   0   0   5  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         43  62  51  69  52 /   5   0  10  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            44  65  51  70  50 /   5   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  63  50  69  45 /   0   0   5  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 130512 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1112 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO 00Z TAFS AS CHALLENGES CONTINUE REGARDING
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 12Z-18Z SATURDAY.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR
OVER S-CENTRAL TX. SURFACE-BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ON AREA PROFILERS
CONTINUE TO KEEP DRIER NE FLOW INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. THIS WILL HOLD VFR CONDS AND NE WINDS NEAR 10
KTS IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OCCURS OT THE WEST...WIND DIRECTION AT ALL
AIRPORTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH LOW VFR CIGS
STREAMING UP FROM THE GULF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
FALL AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

05/

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AS
A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WHICH WILL OFFSET THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MOSTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WITH A FEW WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION MONDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  60  51  65  49 /   0   0   5  20  40
WACO, TX              43  65  51  70  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             35  53  41  54  44 /   0   0   5  20  50
DENTON, TX            36  59  49  65  45 /   0   0   5  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          37  57  49  63  47 /   0   0   5  20  50
DALLAS, TX            42  60  51  67  50 /   0   0  10  20  50
TERRELL, TX           40  59  49  64  49 /   0   0   5  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         43  62  51  69  52 /   5   0  10  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            44  65  51  70  50 /   5   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  63  50  69  45 /   0   0   5  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/79



000
FXUS64 KSJT 130508
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1108 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24
hours. However, a few hours of MVFR ceilings are possible at the
KBBD and KJCT terminals Saturday morning due to low level moisture
increasing. Keeping those two terminals VFR for now. The winds
will be light tonight and become southerly with gusts to around 20
knots by Saturday afternoon at the KABI terminal.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 535 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. However, a few
hours of MVFR ceilings will develop at the KBBD and KJCT terminals
Saturday morning due to low level moisture increasing. The winds
will be light tonight and become southerly with gusts to 20 knots
by Saturday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with above normal
temperatures again on Saturday. For tonight, skies will remain
clear, with light northeast winds and near seasonal overnight lows
in the mid and upper 30s. Surface low pressure will develop over
southeast Colorado on Saturday and this will bring our winds around
to a southeasterly direction, with low level moisture slowly
increasing during the day. Temperatures will not be as warm as today
but still above normal, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)

Main upper level trough will continue over the Great Lakes states
through at least the beginning and middle of next week, placing
West Central Texas in dry northwest flow aloft. A weak cold front
will drop through the area on Monday and lower temperatures a
little, but will still remain above normal with highs near 70.
Warm up starts on Tuesday with highs near or above the 80 degree
mark for the remainder of the week. Some days should see
temperatures 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  34  68  51  75 /   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  37  72  52  78 /   0   0   0   5
Junction  34  71  48  74 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KSJT 130508
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1108 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions at the terminals for the next 24
hours. However, a few hours of MVFR ceilings are possible at the
KBBD and KJCT terminals Saturday morning due to low level moisture
increasing. Keeping those two terminals VFR for now. The winds
will be light tonight and become southerly with gusts to around 20
knots by Saturday afternoon at the KABI terminal.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 535 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. However, a few
hours of MVFR ceilings will develop at the KBBD and KJCT terminals
Saturday morning due to low level moisture increasing. The winds
will be light tonight and become southerly with gusts to 20 knots
by Saturday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with above normal
temperatures again on Saturday. For tonight, skies will remain
clear, with light northeast winds and near seasonal overnight lows
in the mid and upper 30s. Surface low pressure will develop over
southeast Colorado on Saturday and this will bring our winds around
to a southeasterly direction, with low level moisture slowly
increasing during the day. Temperatures will not be as warm as today
but still above normal, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)

Main upper level trough will continue over the Great Lakes states
through at least the beginning and middle of next week, placing
West Central Texas in dry northwest flow aloft. A weak cold front
will drop through the area on Monday and lower temperatures a
little, but will still remain above normal with highs near 70.
Warm up starts on Tuesday with highs near or above the 80 degree
mark for the remainder of the week. Some days should see
temperatures 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  34  68  51  75 /   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  37  72  52  78 /   0   0   0   5
Junction  34  71  48  74 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KEWX 130449
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1049 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAF PERIOD...
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING NO BR DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AT ANY
TERMINAL. WITH WINDS LOOKING TO STAY AT ABOUT 5 OR 6 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED BR FROM TAFS THIS GO AROUND.
STILL EXPECTING SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK RESULTING
IN CIGS AOA 9-12 KFT. LOOKING MORE LIKE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL
OCCUR JUST BEFORE NOON TOMORROW AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              48  67  53  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  44  67  51  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  71  52  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            44  66  51  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  77  52  78  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  65  51  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  74  51  77  48 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  67  52  75  58 /  -   10  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       48  71  53  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  73  53  77  52 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KMAF 130447
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1047 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all terminals. Light easterly winds will persist through
midday then southerly winds return areawide. The potential for low
cigs/vis to affect HOB and MAF Saturday morning is becoming
increasingly unlikely but monitor trends overnight and amend if
needed. Otherwise, clear skies expected through Saturday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A northwest flow/zonal upper air pattern does not bode well for
rain chances the next seven days. Across the area today we are
seeing clear skies with a weak cold front moving through the
Permian Basin and we can expect this pattern to persist. Southerly
flow will return tomorrow after the brief northerly wind shift
today, and will be interrupted by the passage of weak fronts on
Sunday and Tuesday as weak disturbances move across the plains in
the progressive flow. Fortunately wind speeds should remain low
enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions from developing
in this dry air.

The only chance for precipitation will be after this forecast
period, late next weekend. However even this is doubtful since the
upper air pattern remains zonal and the only reflection of
precipitation is in the model QPF fields, as this is know to be
too aggressive in the extended periods.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  70  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  74  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  76  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  41  76  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 41  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          33  71  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          35  73  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  73  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         39  72  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  74  40  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49




000
FXUS64 KMAF 130447
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1047 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all terminals. Light easterly winds will persist through
midday then southerly winds return areawide. The potential for low
cigs/vis to affect HOB and MAF Saturday morning is becoming
increasingly unlikely but monitor trends overnight and amend if
needed. Otherwise, clear skies expected through Saturday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A northwest flow/zonal upper air pattern does not bode well for
rain chances the next seven days. Across the area today we are
seeing clear skies with a weak cold front moving through the
Permian Basin and we can expect this pattern to persist. Southerly
flow will return tomorrow after the brief northerly wind shift
today, and will be interrupted by the passage of weak fronts on
Sunday and Tuesday as weak disturbances move across the plains in
the progressive flow. Fortunately wind speeds should remain low
enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions from developing
in this dry air.

The only chance for precipitation will be after this forecast
period, late next weekend. However even this is doubtful since the
upper air pattern remains zonal and the only reflection of
precipitation is in the model QPF fields, as this is know to be
too aggressive in the extended periods.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  70  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  74  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  76  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  41  76  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 41  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          33  71  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          35  73  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  73  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         39  72  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  74  40  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49




000
FXUS64 KMAF 130447
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1047 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all terminals. Light easterly winds will persist through
midday then southerly winds return areawide. The potential for low
cigs/vis to affect HOB and MAF Saturday morning is becoming
increasingly unlikely but monitor trends overnight and amend if
needed. Otherwise, clear skies expected through Saturday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A northwest flow/zonal upper air pattern does not bode well for
rain chances the next seven days. Across the area today we are
seeing clear skies with a weak cold front moving through the
Permian Basin and we can expect this pattern to persist. Southerly
flow will return tomorrow after the brief northerly wind shift
today, and will be interrupted by the passage of weak fronts on
Sunday and Tuesday as weak disturbances move across the plains in
the progressive flow. Fortunately wind speeds should remain low
enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions from developing
in this dry air.

The only chance for precipitation will be after this forecast
period, late next weekend. However even this is doubtful since the
upper air pattern remains zonal and the only reflection of
precipitation is in the model QPF fields, as this is know to be
too aggressive in the extended periods.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  70  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  74  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  76  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  41  76  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 41  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          33  71  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          35  73  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  73  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         39  72  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  74  40  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49



000
FXUS64 KCRP 130441 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1041 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING WHILE
WINDS DIMINISHED. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NEAR
ZERO OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. FOG/MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP 05-06Z IN THIS REGION WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
LIFR WITH DENSE FOG BY 07-08Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z.
TIMING FOR FOG IN THE ALI/CRP AREA WILL BE DELAYED AN HOUR OR TWO
WITH LIFR CONDS FORMING BY 08-09Z. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS...WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 11Z WITH
LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NEAR DENSE FOG. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE BY 15-16Z TO VFR WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING OVER VCT AREA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE VCT AREA AROUND 03Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTH OF HOUSTON TO SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO REMAINS ESSENTIAL
QUASISTATIONARY TONIGHT. TEMP-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE THE
LOWEST AROUND THE MID COAST AT 03Z. 00Z HRRR ALONG WITH 00Z
NAM SHOW FOG WILL FORM OVER THE MID COAST REGION INITIALLY
JUST AFTER 06Z AND SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT. ADDED CALHOUN AND ARANSAS COUNTIES INTO THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. MAY NEED TO HAVE ADVISORY FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT
TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  74  57  78  56  /   0  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          50  71  54  75  57  /   0  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            54  82  55  83  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             52  78  54  82  55  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          56  70  60  73  60  /   0  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           50  80  54  83  51  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        52  77  54  78  56  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  71  60  73  59  /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...
     JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 130441 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1041 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING WHILE
WINDS DIMINISHED. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NEAR
ZERO OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. FOG/MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP 05-06Z IN THIS REGION WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
LIFR WITH DENSE FOG BY 07-08Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z.
TIMING FOR FOG IN THE ALI/CRP AREA WILL BE DELAYED AN HOUR OR TWO
WITH LIFR CONDS FORMING BY 08-09Z. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS...WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 11Z WITH
LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NEAR DENSE FOG. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE BY 15-16Z TO VFR WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING OVER VCT AREA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE VCT AREA AROUND 03Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTH OF HOUSTON TO SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO REMAINS ESSENTIAL
QUASISTATIONARY TONIGHT. TEMP-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE THE
LOWEST AROUND THE MID COAST AT 03Z. 00Z HRRR ALONG WITH 00Z
NAM SHOW FOG WILL FORM OVER THE MID COAST REGION INITIALLY
JUST AFTER 06Z AND SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT. ADDED CALHOUN AND ARANSAS COUNTIES INTO THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. MAY NEED TO HAVE ADVISORY FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT
TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  74  57  78  56  /   0  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          50  71  54  75  57  /   0  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            54  82  55  83  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             52  78  54  82  55  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          56  70  60  73  60  /   0  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           50  80  54  83  51  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        52  77  54  78  56  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  71  60  73  59  /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...
     JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KAMA 130433 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1033 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE LIFR RANGE ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT THE GUY TAF SITE
ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES GOING DOWN TO AROUND 3 MILES. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AT AMA WITH BR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
VERY HIGH. BELIEVE NOW THAT DHT WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL LEAVE ALL OF THE TAF SITES VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GUSTY BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY
AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. DHT IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE THE BEST CONDITIONS WITH SOME FOG IN THE MVFR RANGE.
AMA WILL ALSO HAVE VISIBILITIES REDUCED INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN
FOG...BUT THERE COULD ALSO BE COME LIFR CIGS NEAR. FOR NOW HAVE
MENTIONED A SCATTERED GROUP AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING. AT GUY...THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED WITH
CIGS GETTING DOWN INTO THE LIFR RANGE AND VISIBILITIES DOWN AROUND 3
MILES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MENTIONED THE LOW CIGS AT GUY AS
CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST THERE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD START TO
CLEAR UP BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WITH A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS ON
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO TRY AND HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE TENDENCY OVER THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO HAS BEEN FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO COME IN
WARMER...AND DEW POINTS TO COME IN LOWER. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAKING SUNDAY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS AROUND 60. NEXT THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 80S. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN EVEN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TOMORROW MORNING IS THE
ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER TYPE IN THIS FORECAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY.

FIRE WEATHER...
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES COULD SEE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT EACH OF THE DAYS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE BE
MORE DEPENDENT ON AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES TOMORROW AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/18




000
FXUS64 KHGX 130344
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
944 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 8 PM CST SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /ROUGHLY FROM WASHINGTON CO TO LIBERTY
CO/... WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S NORTH OF
THE FRONT AND REMAINING IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH OF IT. AS A
RESULT... ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF RADIATION FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO
APPEARS POSSIBLE AROUND THE BAYS AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS
ACROSS COASTAL WATERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. THE MAIN
FORECAST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE COVERAGE TO AREAS OF FOG
INLAND BASED ON TRENDS IN THE SREF/HRRR VISIBILITIES. EXPECT FOG
TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TOWARD THE
GULF TONIGHT. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LATER TONIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF SE TX. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR KSGR...KLBX AND KGLS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND LINGER
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. NE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME SE BY EVENING EXCEPT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL HELP DRIVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER STATE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN SHIFT AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE CHANCES
FOR FOG. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. THE BEST TIME PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE FOG AREA LIFTING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST OF THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED THUNDER IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING PROFILES ARE NOT AS CONDUCIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT. GFSBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY LOOK BETTER FOR MONDAY
THAN THE MODEL HAS SHOWN OVER THE PAST FOUR OR FIVE MODEL RUNS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION OF PATCHY FOG FORMING ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL GO
ANOTHER FEW CYCLES AND LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL
RUNS.

40

MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE MARINE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME ENE-E AS THIS OCCURS AND
WILL INCREASE IN SPEED. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS WILL BE
REQUIRED OFFSHORE. WINDS SHOULD SWING RIGHT BACK TO THE SE SAT
NIGHT AND REMAIN AT MODERATE SPEEDS UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST MON AFTN. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO THE SE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE REGION.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT
COULD BE A SET UP FOR A MULTI-DAY SEA FOG ISSUE - DEPENDENT ON
EVENTUAL WATER TEMPS AT THAT TIME. WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE LATER.
47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  64  50  71  57 /   0  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              51  66  49  71  59 /   0  10  10  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  62  54  69  59 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14



000
FXUS64 KHGX 130344
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
944 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 8 PM CST SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /ROUGHLY FROM WASHINGTON CO TO LIBERTY
CO/... WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S NORTH OF
THE FRONT AND REMAINING IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH OF IT. AS A
RESULT... ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF RADIATION FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO
APPEARS POSSIBLE AROUND THE BAYS AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS
ACROSS COASTAL WATERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. THE MAIN
FORECAST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE COVERAGE TO AREAS OF FOG
INLAND BASED ON TRENDS IN THE SREF/HRRR VISIBILITIES. EXPECT FOG
TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TOWARD THE
GULF TONIGHT. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LATER TONIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF SE TX. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR KSGR...KLBX AND KGLS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND LINGER
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. NE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME SE BY EVENING EXCEPT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL HELP DRIVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER STATE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN SHIFT AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE CHANCES
FOR FOG. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. THE BEST TIME PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE FOG AREA LIFTING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST OF THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED THUNDER IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING PROFILES ARE NOT AS CONDUCIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT. GFSBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY LOOK BETTER FOR MONDAY
THAN THE MODEL HAS SHOWN OVER THE PAST FOUR OR FIVE MODEL RUNS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION OF PATCHY FOG FORMING ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL GO
ANOTHER FEW CYCLES AND LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL
RUNS.

40

MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE MARINE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME ENE-E AS THIS OCCURS AND
WILL INCREASE IN SPEED. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS WILL BE
REQUIRED OFFSHORE. WINDS SHOULD SWING RIGHT BACK TO THE SE SAT
NIGHT AND REMAIN AT MODERATE SPEEDS UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST MON AFTN. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO THE SE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE REGION.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT
COULD BE A SET UP FOR A MULTI-DAY SEA FOG ISSUE - DEPENDENT ON
EVENTUAL WATER TEMPS AT THAT TIME. WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE LATER.
47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  64  50  71  57 /   0  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              51  66  49  71  59 /   0  10  10  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  62  54  69  59 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14




000
FXUS64 KHGX 130344
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
944 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 8 PM CST SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /ROUGHLY FROM WASHINGTON CO TO LIBERTY
CO/... WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S NORTH OF
THE FRONT AND REMAINING IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH OF IT. AS A
RESULT... ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF RADIATION FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO
APPEARS POSSIBLE AROUND THE BAYS AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT 60+ DEGREE DEW POINTS
ACROSS COASTAL WATERS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. THE MAIN
FORECAST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE COVERAGE TO AREAS OF FOG
INLAND BASED ON TRENDS IN THE SREF/HRRR VISIBILITIES. EXPECT FOG
TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES CLOSER TOWARD THE
GULF TONIGHT. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LATER TONIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF SE TX. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR KSGR...KLBX AND KGLS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND LINGER
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. NE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME SE BY EVENING EXCEPT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL HELP DRIVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER STATE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN SHIFT AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE CHANCES
FOR FOG. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. THE BEST TIME PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE FOG AREA LIFTING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST OF THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED THUNDER IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING PROFILES ARE NOT AS CONDUCIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT. GFSBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY LOOK BETTER FOR MONDAY
THAN THE MODEL HAS SHOWN OVER THE PAST FOUR OR FIVE MODEL RUNS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION OF PATCHY FOG FORMING ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL GO
ANOTHER FEW CYCLES AND LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL
RUNS.

40

MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE MARINE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME ENE-E AS THIS OCCURS AND
WILL INCREASE IN SPEED. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS WILL BE
REQUIRED OFFSHORE. WINDS SHOULD SWING RIGHT BACK TO THE SE SAT
NIGHT AND REMAIN AT MODERATE SPEEDS UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST MON AFTN. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO THE SE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE REGION.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT
COULD BE A SET UP FOR A MULTI-DAY SEA FOG ISSUE - DEPENDENT ON
EVENTUAL WATER TEMPS AT THAT TIME. WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE LATER.
47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  64  50  71  57 /   0  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              51  66  49  71  59 /   0  10  10  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  62  54  69  59 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14




000
FXUS64 KEWX 130321
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
921 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE... /TRIMMED FOG AREA TO FARTHER SOUTH/

EVENING OBSERVATIONS ARE IN LINE WITH HIGHER RES MODEL PROJECTIONS
FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TO SPILL FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES. WILL EXPECT TO SEE FOG WELL TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90
AT AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH MAINLY LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG HIGHWAY
90. EARLY PARTS OF SATURDAY WERE UPDATED TO ADD A BIT MORE STRATUS
AFTER 12Z WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS PROMOTE A MORE AGRESSIVE
SPREAD OF MOISTURE TO COUNTIES FARTHER INLAND THAN DOES THE
SURFACE WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD...
AT TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS AND LIKELY PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF BR BELOW MVFR OVERNIGHT...BUT IFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CLOUDS AS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK AND SPREAD NORTHWARD IMPACTING THE I35 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
KDRT SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID DAY HOWEVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A SLOW MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY RESTING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM A ROCKSPRINGS TO AUSTIN TO BRYAN/COLLEGE
STATION LINE. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA
IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERRUNS IT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP PROMOTE MORE FOG ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 DOWN TO ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS AS WE SAW SEVERAL SPOTS THIS MORNING GET DOWN BELOW
1/2 MILE VISIBILITY. THE LIGHT WINDS AND PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REPEAT THIS TONIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...LATER SHIFTS CAN
EVALUATE THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG AND ISSUE THE PRODUCT AS
WARRANTED.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A MOIST SURFACE LAYER TRAPPED
UNDER THE ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MORNING
CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND LONGER SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S SATURDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHILE THE REST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING THE ONLY MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATE AND NORTHERN MEXICO BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST. A TAIL END SHOWER COULD CLIP
LEE...FAYETTE...BASTROP...OR LAVACA COUNTIES SO HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY THE BEST CAPE WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IN OUR
AREA SHOULD JUST BE SHOWERS.

THE FRONT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY AND SUNNY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S
ALSO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT AND THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              48  67  53  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  44  67  51  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  71  52  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            44  66  51  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  77  52  78  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  65  51  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  74  51  77  48 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   50  67  52  75  58 /  -   10  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       48  71  53  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           48  73  53  77  52 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KCRP 130314 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
914 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTH OF HOUSTON TO SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO REMAINS ESSENTIAL
QUASISTATIONARY TONIGHT. TEMP-DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE THE
LOWEST AROUND THE MID COAST AT 03Z. 00Z HRRR ALONG WITH 00Z
NAM SHOW FOG WILL FORM OVER THE MID COAST REGION INITIALLY
JUST AFTER 06Z AND SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT. ADDED CALHOUN AND ARANSAS COUNTIES INTO THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. MAY NEED TO HAVE ADVISORY FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT
TO INCLUDE IN THE ADVISORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ALREADY PAST VCT AND ALI. HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO
THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BY 06Z WHILE WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
FOG/MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 05-06Z IN THIS REGION
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO LIFR WITH DENSE FOG BY
07-08Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 11Z
WITH LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NEAR DENSE FOG. VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 15-16Z TO VFR WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING
OVER VCT AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  74  57  78  56  /   0  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          50  71  54  75  57  /   0  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            54  82  55  83  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             52  78  54  82  55  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          56  70  60  73  60  /   0  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           50  80  54  83  51  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        52  77  54  78  56  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  71  60  73  59  /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...
     JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 130001 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
601 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ALREADY PAST VCT AND ALI. HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO
THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BY 06Z WHILE WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
FOG/MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 05-06Z IN THIS REGION
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO LIFR WITH DENSE FOG BY
07-08Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 11Z
WITH LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NEAR DENSE FOG. VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 15-16Z TO VFR WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING
OVER VCT AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...PERSISTENCE...ALONG
WITH ALL STATISTICAL AND MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS DENSE FOG WILL
BE WIDESPREAD AGAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE WILL GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SOME
BUST POTENTIAL SHOULD STRATUS DOMINATE BUT THAT LOOKS PRETTY
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. LOWERED LOW TEMPS A BIT FROM PREV FCST DUE
TO GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDS.

FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SHOULD BE GONE BY
NOON. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS AROUND AS DEEPER LLVL MSTR
LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK FRONT WILL WASH OUT
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWFA ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH ONSHORE FLOW BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE FOG POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND HV ADDED
MENTION TO THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT INCREASED HUMIDITY...BUT WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZATION RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE. WEAK
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND LATE MONDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR EXPECTED WEATHER. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...EXTENDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK....

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  74  57  78  56  /   0  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          50  71  54  75  57  /   0  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            54  82  55  83  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             52  78  54  82  55  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          57  70  60  73  60  /   0  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           50  80  54  83  51  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        52  77  54  78  56  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  71  60  73  59  /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 130001 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
601 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ALREADY PAST VCT AND ALI. HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO
THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BY 06Z WHILE WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
FOG/MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 05-06Z IN THIS REGION
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO LIFR WITH DENSE FOG BY
07-08Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 11Z
WITH LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NEAR DENSE FOG. VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 15-16Z TO VFR WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING
OVER VCT AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...PERSISTENCE...ALONG
WITH ALL STATISTICAL AND MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS DENSE FOG WILL
BE WIDESPREAD AGAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE WILL GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SOME
BUST POTENTIAL SHOULD STRATUS DOMINATE BUT THAT LOOKS PRETTY
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. LOWERED LOW TEMPS A BIT FROM PREV FCST DUE
TO GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDS.

FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SHOULD BE GONE BY
NOON. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS AROUND AS DEEPER LLVL MSTR
LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK FRONT WILL WASH OUT
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWFA ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH ONSHORE FLOW BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE FOG POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND HV ADDED
MENTION TO THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT INCREASED HUMIDITY...BUT WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZATION RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE. WEAK
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND LATE MONDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR EXPECTED WEATHER. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...EXTENDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK....

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  74  57  78  56  /   0  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          50  71  54  75  57  /   0  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            54  82  55  83  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             52  78  54  82  55  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          57  70  60  73  60  /   0  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           50  80  54  83  51  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        52  77  54  78  56  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  71  60  73  59  /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 130001 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
601 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ALREADY PAST VCT AND ALI. HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO
THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BY 06Z WHILE WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
FOG/MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 05-06Z IN THIS REGION
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO LIFR WITH DENSE FOG BY
07-08Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 11Z
WITH LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NEAR DENSE FOG. VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 15-16Z TO VFR WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING
OVER VCT AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...PERSISTENCE...ALONG
WITH ALL STATISTICAL AND MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS DENSE FOG WILL
BE WIDESPREAD AGAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE WILL GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SOME
BUST POTENTIAL SHOULD STRATUS DOMINATE BUT THAT LOOKS PRETTY
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. LOWERED LOW TEMPS A BIT FROM PREV FCST DUE
TO GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDS.

FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SHOULD BE GONE BY
NOON. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS AROUND AS DEEPER LLVL MSTR
LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK FRONT WILL WASH OUT
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWFA ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH ONSHORE FLOW BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE FOG POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND HV ADDED
MENTION TO THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT INCREASED HUMIDITY...BUT WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZATION RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE. WEAK
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND LATE MONDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR EXPECTED WEATHER. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...EXTENDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK....

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  74  57  78  56  /   0  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          50  71  54  75  57  /   0  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            54  82  55  83  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             52  78  54  82  55  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          57  70  60  73  60  /   0  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           50  80  54  83  51  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        52  77  54  78  56  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  71  60  73  59  /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 130001 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
601 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ALREADY PAST VCT AND ALI. HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO
THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BY 06Z WHILE WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
FOG/MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 05-06Z IN THIS REGION
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO LIFR WITH DENSE FOG BY
07-08Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 11Z
WITH LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NEAR DENSE FOG. VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 15-16Z TO VFR WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING
OVER VCT AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...PERSISTENCE...ALONG
WITH ALL STATISTICAL AND MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS DENSE FOG WILL
BE WIDESPREAD AGAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE WILL GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SOME
BUST POTENTIAL SHOULD STRATUS DOMINATE BUT THAT LOOKS PRETTY
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. LOWERED LOW TEMPS A BIT FROM PREV FCST DUE
TO GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDS.

FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SHOULD BE GONE BY
NOON. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS AROUND AS DEEPER LLVL MSTR
LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK FRONT WILL WASH OUT
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWFA ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH ONSHORE FLOW BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE FOG POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND HV ADDED
MENTION TO THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT INCREASED HUMIDITY...BUT WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZATION RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE. WEAK
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND LATE MONDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR EXPECTED WEATHER. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...EXTENDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK....

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  74  57  78  56  /   0  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          50  71  54  75  57  /   0  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            54  82  55  83  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             52  78  54  82  55  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          57  70  60  73  60  /   0  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           50  80  54  83  51  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        52  77  54  78  56  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  71  60  73  59  /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 130001 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
601 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ALREADY PAST VCT AND ALI. HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO
THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BY 06Z WHILE WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
FOG/MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 05-06Z IN THIS REGION
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO LIFR WITH DENSE FOG BY
07-08Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL REACH LRD AREA BY 11Z
WITH LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN NEAR DENSE FOG. VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 15-16Z TO VFR WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING
OVER VCT AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...PERSISTENCE...ALONG
WITH ALL STATISTICAL AND MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS DENSE FOG WILL
BE WIDESPREAD AGAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE WILL GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SOME
BUST POTENTIAL SHOULD STRATUS DOMINATE BUT THAT LOOKS PRETTY
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. LOWERED LOW TEMPS A BIT FROM PREV FCST DUE
TO GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDS.

FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SHOULD BE GONE BY
NOON. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS AROUND AS DEEPER LLVL MSTR
LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK FRONT WILL WASH OUT
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWFA ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH ONSHORE FLOW BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE FOG POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND HV ADDED
MENTION TO THE FORECAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT INCREASED HUMIDITY...BUT WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZATION RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE. WEAK
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND LATE MONDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR EXPECTED WEATHER. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...EXTENDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK....

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  74  57  78  56  /   0  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          50  71  54  75  57  /   0  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            54  82  55  83  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             52  78  54  82  55  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          57  70  60  73  60  /   0  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           50  80  54  83  51  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        52  77  54  78  56  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  71  60  73  59  /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KHGX 122358
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
558 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF SE TX. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR KSGR...KLBX AND KGLS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND LINGER
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. NE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME SE BY EVENING EXCEPT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL HELP DRIVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER STATE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN SHIFT AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE CHANCES
FOR FOG. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. THE BEST TIME PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE FOG AREA LIFTING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST OF THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED THUNDER IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING PROFILES ARE NOT AS CONDUCIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT. GFSBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY LOOK BETTER FOR MONDAY
THAN THE MODEL HAS SHOWN OVER THE PAST FOUR OR FIVE MODEL RUNS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION OF PATCHY FOG FORMING ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL GO
ANOTHER FEW CYCLES AND LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL
RUNS.

40

MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE MARINE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME ENE-E AS THIS OCCURS AND
WILL INCREASE IN SPEED. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS WILL BE
REQUIRED OFFSHORE. WINDS SHOULD SWING RIGHT BACK TO THE SE SAT
NIGHT AND REMAIN AT MODERATE SPEEDS UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST MON AFTN. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO THE SE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE REGION.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT
COULD BE A SET UP FOR A MULTI-DAY SEA FOG ISSUE - DEPENDENT ON
EVENTUAL WATER TEMPS AT THAT TIME. WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE LATER.
47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  64  50  71  57 /   0  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              51  66  49  71  59 /   0  10  10  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  62  54  69  59 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 122358
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
558 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF SE TX. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR KSGR...KLBX AND KGLS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND LINGER
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. NE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND INCREASE ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME SE BY EVENING EXCEPT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL HELP DRIVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER STATE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN SHIFT AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE CHANCES
FOR FOG. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. THE BEST TIME PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE FOG AREA LIFTING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST OF THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED THUNDER IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING PROFILES ARE NOT AS CONDUCIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT. GFSBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY LOOK BETTER FOR MONDAY
THAN THE MODEL HAS SHOWN OVER THE PAST FOUR OR FIVE MODEL RUNS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION OF PATCHY FOG FORMING ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL GO
ANOTHER FEW CYCLES AND LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL
RUNS.

40

MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE MARINE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME ENE-E AS THIS OCCURS AND
WILL INCREASE IN SPEED. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS WILL BE
REQUIRED OFFSHORE. WINDS SHOULD SWING RIGHT BACK TO THE SE SAT
NIGHT AND REMAIN AT MODERATE SPEEDS UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST MON AFTN. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO THE SE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE REGION.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT
COULD BE A SET UP FOR A MULTI-DAY SEA FOG ISSUE - DEPENDENT ON
EVENTUAL WATER TEMPS AT THAT TIME. WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE LATER.
47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  64  50  71  57 /   0  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              51  66  49  71  59 /   0  10  10  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  62  54  69  59 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KFWD 122350 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
550 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT
THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST
DURING THIS TIME...AS LEE-SIDE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INCREASES ON
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S.

GULF MOISTURE IN BETWEEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB WILL INCREASE
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING
WITH TIME. HAVE LEFT MVFR CIGS AT WACO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH DFW AREA AIRPORTS SEEING LOW VFR CIGS BY LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AS ALL THIS OCCURS UNDER AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ANCHORED WITHIN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST 10-15 KTS ON
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE CHANGES NOTED ABOVE. HIGHER
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY 21Z SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AS
A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WHICH WILL OFFSET THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MOSTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WITH A FEW WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION MONDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  60  51  65  49 /   0   0   5  20  40
WACO, TX              43  65  51  70  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             35  53  41  54  44 /   0   0   5  20  50
DENTON, TX            36  59  49  65  45 /   0   0   5  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          37  57  49  63  47 /   0   0   5  20  50
DALLAS, TX            42  60  51  67  50 /   0   0  10  20  50
TERRELL, TX           40  59  49  64  49 /   0   0   5  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         43  62  51  69  52 /   5   0  10  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            44  65  51  70  50 /   5   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  63  50  69  45 /   0   0   5  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 122350 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
550 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT
THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST
DURING THIS TIME...AS LEE-SIDE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INCREASES ON
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S.

GULF MOISTURE IN BETWEEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB WILL INCREASE
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING
WITH TIME. HAVE LEFT MVFR CIGS AT WACO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH DFW AREA AIRPORTS SEEING LOW VFR CIGS BY LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AS ALL THIS OCCURS UNDER AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ANCHORED WITHIN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST 10-15 KTS ON
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE CHANGES NOTED ABOVE. HIGHER
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY 21Z SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AS
A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WHICH WILL OFFSET THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MOSTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WITH A FEW WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION MONDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  60  51  65  49 /   0   0   5  20  40
WACO, TX              43  65  51  70  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             35  53  41  54  44 /   0   0   5  20  50
DENTON, TX            36  59  49  65  45 /   0   0   5  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          37  57  49  63  47 /   0   0   5  20  50
DALLAS, TX            42  60  51  67  50 /   0   0  10  20  50
TERRELL, TX           40  59  49  64  49 /   0   0   5  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         43  62  51  69  52 /   5   0  10  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            44  65  51  70  50 /   5   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  63  50  69  45 /   0   0   5  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 122350 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
550 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO A FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT
THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST
DURING THIS TIME...AS LEE-SIDE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INCREASES ON
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S.

GULF MOISTURE IN BETWEEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB WILL INCREASE
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING
WITH TIME. HAVE LEFT MVFR CIGS AT WACO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH DFW AREA AIRPORTS SEEING LOW VFR CIGS BY LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AS ALL THIS OCCURS UNDER AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ANCHORED WITHIN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST 10-15 KTS ON
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE CHANGES NOTED ABOVE. HIGHER
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE BY 21Z SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AS
A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WHICH WILL OFFSET THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MOSTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WITH A FEW WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION MONDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  60  51  65  49 /   0   0   5  20  40
WACO, TX              43  65  51  70  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             35  53  41  54  44 /   0   0   5  20  50
DENTON, TX            36  59  49  65  45 /   0   0   5  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          37  57  49  63  47 /   0   0   5  20  50
DALLAS, TX            42  60  51  67  50 /   0   0  10  20  50
TERRELL, TX           40  59  49  64  49 /   0   0   5  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         43  62  51  69  52 /   5   0  10  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            44  65  51  70  50 /   5   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  63  50  69  45 /   0   0   5  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/79



000
FXUS64 KEWX 122348
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
548 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD...
AT TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS AND LIKELY PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF BR BELOW MVFR OVERNIGHT...BUT IFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CLOUDS AS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK AND SPREAD NORTHWARD IMPACTING THE I35 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
KDRT SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID DAY HOWEVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A SLOW MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY RESTING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM A ROCKSPRINGS TO AUSTIN TO BRYAN/COLLEGE
STATION LINE. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA
IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERRUNS IT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP PROMOTE MORE FOG ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 DOWN TO ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS AS WE SAW SEVERAL SPOTS THIS MORNING GET DOWN BELOW
1/2 MILE VISIBILITY. THE LIGHT WINDS AND PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REPEAT THIS TONIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...LATER SHIFTS CAN
EVALUATE THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG AND ISSUE THE PRODUCT AS
WARRANTED.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A MOIST SURFACE LAYER TRAPPED
UNDER THE ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MORNING
CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND LONGER SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S SATURDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHILE THE REST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING THE ONLY MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATE AND NORTHERN MEXICO BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST. A TAIL END SHOWER COULD CLIP
LEE...FAYETTE...BASTROP...OR LAVACA COUNTIES SO HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY THE BEST CAPE WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IN OUR
AREA SHOULD JUST BE SHOWERS.

THE FRONT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY AND SUNNY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S
ALSO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT AND THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  67  53  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  67  51  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  71  52  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  66  51  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  77  52  78  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  65  51  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  74  51  77  48 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  67  52  75  58 /  -   10  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  71  53  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  73  53  77  52 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KEWX 122348
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
548 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAF PERIOD...
AT TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE KSAT/KSSF TERMINALS AND LIKELY PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF BR BELOW MVFR OVERNIGHT...BUT IFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CLOUDS AS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK AND SPREAD NORTHWARD IMPACTING THE I35 CORRIDOR
TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
KDRT SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID DAY HOWEVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A SLOW MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY RESTING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM A ROCKSPRINGS TO AUSTIN TO BRYAN/COLLEGE
STATION LINE. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA
IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERRUNS IT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP PROMOTE MORE FOG ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 DOWN TO ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS AS WE SAW SEVERAL SPOTS THIS MORNING GET DOWN BELOW
1/2 MILE VISIBILITY. THE LIGHT WINDS AND PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REPEAT THIS TONIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...LATER SHIFTS CAN
EVALUATE THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG AND ISSUE THE PRODUCT AS
WARRANTED.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A MOIST SURFACE LAYER TRAPPED
UNDER THE ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MORNING
CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND LONGER SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S SATURDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHILE THE REST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING THE ONLY MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATE AND NORTHERN MEXICO BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST. A TAIL END SHOWER COULD CLIP
LEE...FAYETTE...BASTROP...OR LAVACA COUNTIES SO HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY THE BEST CAPE WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IN OUR
AREA SHOULD JUST BE SHOWERS.

THE FRONT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY AND SUNNY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S
ALSO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT AND THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  67  53  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  67  51  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  71  52  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  66  51  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  77  52  78  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  65  51  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  74  51  77  48 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  67  52  75  58 /  -   10  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  71  53  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  73  53  77  52 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30




000
FXUS64 KSJT 122335
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
535 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. However, a few
hours of MVFR ceilings will develop at the KBBD and KJCT terminals
Saturday morning due to low level moisture increasing. The winds
will be light tonight and become southerly with gusts to 20 knots
by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with above normal
temperatures again on Saturday. For tonight, skies will remain
clear, with light northeast winds and near seasonal overnight lows
in the mid and upper 30s. Surface low pressure will develop over
southeast Colorado on Saturday and this will bring our winds around
to a southeasterly direction, with low level moisture slowly
increasing during the day. Temperatures will not be as warm as today
but still above normal, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)

Main upper level trough will continue over the Great Lakes states
through at least the beginning and middle of next week, placing
West Central Texas in dry northwest flow aloft. A weak cold front
will drop through the area on Monday and lower temperatures a
little, but will still remain above normal with highs near 70.
Warm up starts on Tuesday with highs near or above the 80 degree
mark for the remainder of the week. Some days should see
temperatures 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  34  68  51  75 /   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  37  72  52  78 /   0   0   0   5
Junction  34  71  48  74 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KSJT 122335
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
535 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. However, a few
hours of MVFR ceilings will develop at the KBBD and KJCT terminals
Saturday morning due to low level moisture increasing. The winds
will be light tonight and become southerly with gusts to 20 knots
by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with above normal
temperatures again on Saturday. For tonight, skies will remain
clear, with light northeast winds and near seasonal overnight lows
in the mid and upper 30s. Surface low pressure will develop over
southeast Colorado on Saturday and this will bring our winds around
to a southeasterly direction, with low level moisture slowly
increasing during the day. Temperatures will not be as warm as today
but still above normal, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)

Main upper level trough will continue over the Great Lakes states
through at least the beginning and middle of next week, placing
West Central Texas in dry northwest flow aloft. A weak cold front
will drop through the area on Monday and lower temperatures a
little, but will still remain above normal with highs near 70.
Warm up starts on Tuesday with highs near or above the 80 degree
mark for the remainder of the week. Some days should see
temperatures 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  34  68  51  75 /   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  37  72  52  78 /   0   0   0   5
Junction  34  71  48  74 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

21




000
FXUS64 KAMA 122328 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
528 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. DHT IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE THE BEST CONDITIONS WITH SOME FOG IN THE MVFR RANGE.
AMA WILL ALSO HAVE VISIBILITIES REDUCED INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN
FOG...BUT THERE COULD ALSO BE COME LIFR CIGS NEAR. FOR NOW HAVE
MENTIONED A SCATTERED GROUP AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING. AT GUY...THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED WITH
CIGS GETTING DOWN INTO THE LIFR RANGE AND VISIBILITIES DOWN AROUND 3
MILES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MENTIONED THE LOW CIGS AT GUY AS
CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST THERE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD START TO
CLEAR UP BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WITH A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS ON
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO TRY AND HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE TENDENCY OVER THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO HAS BEEN FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO COME IN
WARMER...AND DEW POINTS TO COME IN LOWER. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAKING SUNDAY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS AROUND 60. NEXT THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 80S. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN EVEN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TOMORROW MORNING IS THE
ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER TYPE IN THIS FORECAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY.

FIRE WEATHER...
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES COULD SEE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT EACH OF THE DAYS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE BE
MORE DEPENDENT ON AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES TOMORROW AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/18




000
FXUS64 KAMA 122328 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
528 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. DHT IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE THE BEST CONDITIONS WITH SOME FOG IN THE MVFR RANGE.
AMA WILL ALSO HAVE VISIBILITIES REDUCED INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN
FOG...BUT THERE COULD ALSO BE COME LIFR CIGS NEAR. FOR NOW HAVE
MENTIONED A SCATTERED GROUP AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH ON LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING. AT GUY...THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED WITH
CIGS GETTING DOWN INTO THE LIFR RANGE AND VISIBILITIES DOWN AROUND 3
MILES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MENTIONED THE LOW CIGS AT GUY AS
CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST THERE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD START TO
CLEAR UP BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WITH A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS ON
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO TRY AND HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE TENDENCY OVER THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO HAS BEEN FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO COME IN
WARMER...AND DEW POINTS TO COME IN LOWER. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAKING SUNDAY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS AROUND 60. NEXT THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 80S. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN EVEN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TOMORROW MORNING IS THE
ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER TYPE IN THIS FORECAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY.

FIRE WEATHER...
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES COULD SEE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT EACH OF THE DAYS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE BE
MORE DEPENDENT ON AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES TOMORROW AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/18



000
FXUS64 KLUB 122326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...AND
HELP TO GARNER A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE THAT COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. COMPUTER MODEL
OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS
QUESTIONABLE...THOUGH ONE COMPUTER MODEL IN PARTICULAR IS RATHER
PESSIMISTIC /VLIFR CAT/. THIS COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE AND WILL
THEREFORE OPT TO SHOW MVFR FOG AND CIGS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL
REASSESS LATE TONIGHT TO SEE IF TRENDS ARE INDEED RIGHT OR TRACK
OR IF AN AMENDMENT WILL BE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AT OR
AROUND 15 KTS /DURING WHICH TIME THE FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS WILL
SCOUR OUT/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS WIND PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO TURN
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND IS
UNKNOWN. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING MOS CAT 1 CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLEAR SIDE. AS OF NOW
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL COME FROM UPSLOPING WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GOMEX.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF
PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND
STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...AS VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN THERE LATER THAN THE REST
OF THE FA. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SOAR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TOUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SLACKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON`T BE
AFFECTED MUCH AT ALL WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR LIFT BRUSHING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AROUND 12 UTC MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. MINOR
FRONTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
FLAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE-RIDGING WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER MUCH OTHER
THAN TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER MINOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REKINDLED THURSDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29



000
FXUS64 KLUB 122326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...AND
HELP TO GARNER A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE THAT COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. COMPUTER MODEL
OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS
QUESTIONABLE...THOUGH ONE COMPUTER MODEL IN PARTICULAR IS RATHER
PESSIMISTIC /VLIFR CAT/. THIS COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE AND WILL
THEREFORE OPT TO SHOW MVFR FOG AND CIGS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL
REASSESS LATE TONIGHT TO SEE IF TRENDS ARE INDEED RIGHT OR TRACK
OR IF AN AMENDMENT WILL BE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AT OR
AROUND 15 KTS /DURING WHICH TIME THE FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS WILL
SCOUR OUT/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS WIND PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO TURN
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND IS
UNKNOWN. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING MOS CAT 1 CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLEAR SIDE. AS OF NOW
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL COME FROM UPSLOPING WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GOMEX.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF
PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND
STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...AS VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN THERE LATER THAN THE REST
OF THE FA. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SOAR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TOUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SLACKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON`T BE
AFFECTED MUCH AT ALL WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR LIFT BRUSHING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AROUND 12 UTC MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. MINOR
FRONTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
FLAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE-RIDGING WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER MUCH OTHER
THAN TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER MINOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REKINDLED THURSDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 122326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...AND
HELP TO GARNER A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE THAT COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. COMPUTER MODEL
OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS
QUESTIONABLE...THOUGH ONE COMPUTER MODEL IN PARTICULAR IS RATHER
PESSIMISTIC /VLIFR CAT/. THIS COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE AND WILL
THEREFORE OPT TO SHOW MVFR FOG AND CIGS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL
REASSESS LATE TONIGHT TO SEE IF TRENDS ARE INDEED RIGHT OR TRACK
OR IF AN AMENDMENT WILL BE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AT OR
AROUND 15 KTS /DURING WHICH TIME THE FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS WILL
SCOUR OUT/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS WIND PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO TURN
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND IS
UNKNOWN. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING MOS CAT 1 CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLEAR SIDE. AS OF NOW
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL COME FROM UPSLOPING WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GOMEX.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF
PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND
STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...AS VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN THERE LATER THAN THE REST
OF THE FA. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SOAR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TOUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SLACKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON`T BE
AFFECTED MUCH AT ALL WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR LIFT BRUSHING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AROUND 12 UTC MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. MINOR
FRONTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
FLAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE-RIDGING WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER MUCH OTHER
THAN TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER MINOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REKINDLED THURSDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KMAF 122311
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
511 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all terminals. Light easterly winds expected overnight
then southerly winds aob 10kt return by midday. There is a low
potential for low cigs/vis to affect HOB and MAF Saturday morning
but confidence is too low attm to include mention in the TAF. Will
re-evaluate this possibility for the next TAF cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A northwest flow/zonal upper air pattern does not bode well for
rain chances the next seven days. Across the area today we are
seeing clear skies with a weak cold front moving through the
Permian Basin and we can expect this pattern to persist. Southerly
flow will return tomorrow after the brief northerly wind shift
today, and will be interrupted by the passage of weak fronts on
Sunday and Tuesday as weak disturbances move across the plains in
the progressive flow. Fortunately wind speeds should remain low
enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions from developing
in this dry air.

The only chance for precipitation will be after this forecast
period, late next weekend. However even this is doubtful since the
upper air pattern remains zonal and the only reflection of
precipitation is in the model QPF fields, as this is know to be
too aggressive in the extended periods.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  70  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  74  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  76  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  41  76  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 41  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          33  71  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          35  73  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  73  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         39  72  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  74  40  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49




000
FXUS64 KMAF 122311
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
511 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all terminals. Light easterly winds expected overnight
then southerly winds aob 10kt return by midday. There is a low
potential for low cigs/vis to affect HOB and MAF Saturday morning
but confidence is too low attm to include mention in the TAF. Will
re-evaluate this possibility for the next TAF cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 225 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A northwest flow/zonal upper air pattern does not bode well for
rain chances the next seven days. Across the area today we are
seeing clear skies with a weak cold front moving through the
Permian Basin and we can expect this pattern to persist. Southerly
flow will return tomorrow after the brief northerly wind shift
today, and will be interrupted by the passage of weak fronts on
Sunday and Tuesday as weak disturbances move across the plains in
the progressive flow. Fortunately wind speeds should remain low
enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions from developing
in this dry air.

The only chance for precipitation will be after this forecast
period, late next weekend. However even this is doubtful since the
upper air pattern remains zonal and the only reflection of
precipitation is in the model QPF fields, as this is know to be
too aggressive in the extended periods.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  70  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  74  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  76  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  41  76  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 41  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          33  71  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          35  73  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  73  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         39  72  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  74  40  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49



000
FXUS64 KAMA 122213
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
413 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS ON
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO TRY AND HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON ANY POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE TENDENCY OVER THE LAST
WEEK OR TWO HAS BEEN FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO COME IN
WARMER...AND DEW POINTS TO COME IN LOWER. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAKING SUNDAY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS AROUND 60. NEXT THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 80S. HAVE
GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN EVEN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TOMORROW MORNING IS THE
ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER TYPE IN THIS FORECAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES COULD SEE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT EACH OF THE DAYS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE BE
MORE DEPENDENT ON AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES TOMORROW AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                30  68  36  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  25  57  32  59  30 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              30  70  33  59  30 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  32  67  39  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              29  71  35  62  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  30  69  37  62  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               30  64  38  62  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 29  72  33  60  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  28  68  33  60  31 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                30  70  35  62  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                27  57  34  60  31 /   0   0   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   29  63  36  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                29  59  38  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              30  61  39  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

2/6




000
FXUS64 KSJT 122137
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
337 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with above normal
temperatures again on Saturday. For tonight, skies will remain
clear, with light northeast winds and near seasonal overnight lows
in the mid and upper 30s. Surface low pressure will develop over
southeast Colorado on Saturday and this will bring our winds around
to a southeasterly direction, with low level moisture slowly
increasing during the day. Temperatures will not be as warm as today
but still above normal, with afternoon highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)

Main upper level trough will continue over the Great Lakes states
through at least the beginning and middle of next week, placing
West Central Texas in dry northwest flow aloft. A weak cold front
will drop through the area on Monday and lower temperatures a
little, but will still remain above normal with highs near 70.
Warm up starts on Tuesday with highs near or above the 80 degree
mark for the remainder of the week. Some days should see
temperatures 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  34  68  51  75 /   0   0   0   5
San Angelo  37  72  52  78 /   0   0   0   5
Junction  34  71  48  74 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

24/07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 122134
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS WIND PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO TURN
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND IS
UNKNOWN. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING MOS CAT 1 CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLEAR SIDE. AS OF NOW
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL COME FROM UPSLOPING WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GOMEX.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF
PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND
STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...AS VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN THERE LATER THAN THE REST
OF THE FA. ALDRICH



.LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SOAR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TOUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SLACKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON`T BE
AFFECTED MUCH AT ALL WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR LIFT BRUSHING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AROUND 12 UTC MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. MINOR
FRONTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
FLAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE-RIDGING WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER MUCH OTHER
THAN TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER MINOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REKINDLED THURSDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33



000
FXUS64 KLUB 122134
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS WIND PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO TURN
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND IS
UNKNOWN. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING MOS CAT 1 CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLEAR SIDE. AS OF NOW
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL COME FROM UPSLOPING WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GOMEX.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF
PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND
STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...AS VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN THERE LATER THAN THE REST
OF THE FA. ALDRICH



.LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SOAR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TOUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SLACKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON`T BE
AFFECTED MUCH AT ALL WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR LIFT BRUSHING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AROUND 12 UTC MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. MINOR
FRONTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
FLAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE-RIDGING WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER MUCH OTHER
THAN TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER MINOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REKINDLED THURSDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33



000
FXUS64 KLUB 122134
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS WIND PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO TURN
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND IS
UNKNOWN. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING MOS CAT 1 CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLEAR SIDE. AS OF NOW
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL COME FROM UPSLOPING WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GOMEX.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF
PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND
STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...AS VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN THERE LATER THAN THE REST
OF THE FA. ALDRICH



.LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SOAR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TOUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SLACKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON`T BE
AFFECTED MUCH AT ALL WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR LIFT BRUSHING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AROUND 12 UTC MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. MINOR
FRONTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
FLAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE-RIDGING WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER MUCH OTHER
THAN TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER MINOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REKINDLED THURSDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33



000
FXUS64 KLUB 122134
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS WIND PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO TURN
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND IS
UNKNOWN. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING MOS CAT 1 CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLEAR SIDE. AS OF NOW
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL COME FROM UPSLOPING WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GOMEX.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF
PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND
STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...AS VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN THERE LATER THAN THE REST
OF THE FA. ALDRICH



.LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SOAR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TOUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SLACKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON`T BE
AFFECTED MUCH AT ALL WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR LIFT BRUSHING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AROUND 12 UTC MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. MINOR
FRONTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
FLAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE-RIDGING WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER MUCH OTHER
THAN TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER MINOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REKINDLED THURSDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33



000
FXUS64 KLUB 122134
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS WIND PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO TURN
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND IS
UNKNOWN. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING MOS CAT 1 CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLEAR SIDE. AS OF NOW
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL COME FROM UPSLOPING WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GOMEX.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF
PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND
STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...AS VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN THERE LATER THAN THE REST
OF THE FA. ALDRICH



.LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SOAR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TOUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SLACKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON`T BE
AFFECTED MUCH AT ALL WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR LIFT BRUSHING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AROUND 12 UTC MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. MINOR
FRONTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
FLAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE-RIDGING WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER MUCH OTHER
THAN TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER MINOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REKINDLED THURSDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33




000
FXUS64 KBRO 122124
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
324 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS S TEXAS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE TONIGHT INTO SAT KEEPING THE AREA
UNDER DRY WEATHER PATTERN AND LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TONIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL SHIFT SE AND EAST UP TO 850 MB
SURGING IN THAT MOIST AIR MASS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BY MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT`S LOW WILL RANGE BETWEEN 55 TO 59
DEGREES AND DEW POINTS IN THE SAME RANGE. SOME AREAS FURTHER NORTH
COULD SEE MORE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL DUE TO LIGHT AND CALM WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

TOMORROW...SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS WHILE STRONG COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MAKES
ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE SE PLAINS. FRONT WILL STAY FURTHER EAST THAT
WILL NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES DIRECTLY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. IT
WILL ONLY BRING THEM DOWN TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER STORY. AS THE FRONT SURGES
SOUTHEAST...THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THE BREEZE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. SAT NIGHT LOW`S RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A MAJOR 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON SUN AND MON.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL USHER THROUGH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE RGV ON MON WITH LITTLE OR NO CAA OCCURRING AFTER
THE FROPA. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...A LARGE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK WITH VERY LIMITED ATMS MOISTURE LEVELS EVIDENT. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING LONGER RANGE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER
MAJOR 500 MB TROUGH AXIS DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND
THIS WILL INCREASE THE PGF LATER NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A LITTLE
BREEZIER CONDITIONS.

FOR TEMPS IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WENT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
WARMER ECMWF NUMBERS AS THE MEX NUMBERS APPEAR TOO COOL
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL RIDGING.

THE 500 MB FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH DAY 7. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS
NUMBERS ARE IN RESONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 FOR BOTH TEMPS
AND POPS. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH LOW SEAS AS THE GRADIENT IS
VERY WEAK. INTO SATURDAY THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE GULF. SCEC IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND THE LAGUNA AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE BREEZE CONTINUES. SEAS WILL
BUILD BUT REMAIN BELOW 4 TO 5 FEET. NO SCA IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PGF WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MAINTAINS A LIGHT TO MODERATE SE SURFACE
FLOW. THE PGF WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A
SURFACE LOW STARTS TO SPIN UP OVER THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SCEC CONDITIONS AS NEXT WEEKEND
APPROACHES. THE WEAK FROPA ON MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
WIND SHIFT AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST. BUT THIS WILL BE PRETTY
SHORT LIVED AS THE SE SURFACE FLOW RETURNS PRETTY QUICKLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  59  73  61  80 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          57  75  59  82 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            55  76  57  83 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              57  80  58  85 /   0   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      56  80  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   61  70  62  78 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...60




000
FXUS64 KBRO 122124
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
324 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS S TEXAS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE TONIGHT INTO SAT KEEPING THE AREA
UNDER DRY WEATHER PATTERN AND LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TONIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE INCREASING MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL SHIFT SE AND EAST UP TO 850 MB
SURGING IN THAT MOIST AIR MASS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BY MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT`S LOW WILL RANGE BETWEEN 55 TO 59
DEGREES AND DEW POINTS IN THE SAME RANGE. SOME AREAS FURTHER NORTH
COULD SEE MORE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL DUE TO LIGHT AND CALM WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

TOMORROW...SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
EXTENDING INTO WEST TEXAS WHILE STRONG COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MAKES
ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE SE PLAINS. FRONT WILL STAY FURTHER EAST THAT
WILL NOT IMPACT TEMPERATURES DIRECTLY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. IT
WILL ONLY BRING THEM DOWN TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER STORY. AS THE FRONT SURGES
SOUTHEAST...THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THE BREEZE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. SAT NIGHT LOW`S RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A MAJOR 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON SUN AND MON.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL USHER THROUGH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE RGV ON MON WITH LITTLE OR NO CAA OCCURRING AFTER
THE FROPA. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...A LARGE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK WITH VERY LIMITED ATMS MOISTURE LEVELS EVIDENT. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING LONGER RANGE PERIOD. TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER
MAJOR 500 MB TROUGH AXIS DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND
THIS WILL INCREASE THE PGF LATER NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A LITTLE
BREEZIER CONDITIONS.

FOR TEMPS IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WENT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
WARMER ECMWF NUMBERS AS THE MEX NUMBERS APPEAR TOO COOL
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL RIDGING.

THE 500 MB FIELDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF THROUGH DAY 7. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS
NUMBERS ARE IN RESONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 FOR BOTH TEMPS
AND POPS. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH LOW SEAS AS THE GRADIENT IS
VERY WEAK. INTO SATURDAY THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE GULF. SCEC IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND THE LAGUNA AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE BREEZE CONTINUES. SEAS WILL
BUILD BUT REMAIN BELOW 4 TO 5 FEET. NO SCA IS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PGF WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MAINTAINS A LIGHT TO MODERATE SE SURFACE
FLOW. THE PGF WILL START TO STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A
SURFACE LOW STARTS TO SPIN UP OVER THE MID PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SCEC CONDITIONS AS NEXT WEEKEND
APPROACHES. THE WEAK FROPA ON MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
WIND SHIFT AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST. BUT THIS WILL BE PRETTY
SHORT LIVED AS THE SE SURFACE FLOW RETURNS PRETTY QUICKLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  59  73  61  80 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          57  75  59  82 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            55  76  57  83 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              57  80  58  85 /   0   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      56  80  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   61  70  62  78 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...60




000
FXUS64 KFWD 122051
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
251 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER
NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AS
A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WHICH WILL OFFSET THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MOSTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD WITH A FEW WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION MONDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING MILD TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1232 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY.

NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL RETURN MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THE MORNING FOG ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING FEW CLOUDS...BUT SOME
OF THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS IN RECENT WEEKS SHOW THAT PLENTY OF
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FILTERING
INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY...AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE IN WACO AROUND MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH STRATOCU CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN THE METROPLEX...AT THAT
POINT...CEILINGS WOULD BE VFR.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  60  51  65  49 /   0   0   5  20  40
WACO, TX              43  65  51  70  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
PARIS, TX             35  53  41  54  44 /   0   0   5  20  50
DENTON, TX            36  59  49  65  45 /   0   0   5  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          37  57  49  63  47 /   0   0   5  20  50
DALLAS, TX            42  60  51  67  50 /   0   0  10  20  50
TERRELL, TX           40  59  49  64  49 /   0   0   5  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         43  62  51  69  52 /   5   0  10  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            44  65  51  70  50 /   5   0  10  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  63  50  69  45 /   0   0   5  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/79




000
FXUS64 KEWX 122039
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
239 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A SLOW MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY RESTING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM A ROCKSPRINGS TO AUSTIN TO BRYAN/COLLEGE
STATION LINE. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA
IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERRUNS IT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP PROMOTE MORE FOG ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 DOWN TO ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS AS WE SAW SEVERAL SPOTS THIS MORNING GET DOWN BELOW
1/2 MILE VISIBILITY. THE LIGHT WINDS AND PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REPEAT THIS TONIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...LATER SHIFTS CAN
EVALUATE THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG AND ISSUE THE PRODUCT AS
WARRANTED.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A MOIST SURFACE LAYER TRAPPED
UNDER THE ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MORNING
CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND LONGER SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S SATURDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHILE THE REST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING THE ONLY MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATE AND NORTHERN MEXICO BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST. A TAIL END SHOWER COULD CLIP
LEE...FAYETTE...BASTROP...OR LAVACA COUNTIES SO HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY THE BEST CAPE WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IN OUR
AREA SHOULD JUST BE SHOWERS.

THE FRONT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY AND SUNNY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S
ALSO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT AND THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  67  53  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  67  51  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  71  52  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  66  51  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  77  52  78  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  65  51  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  74  51  77  48 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  67  52  75  58 /  -   10  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  71  53  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  73  53  77  52 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 122039
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
239 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A SLOW MOVING/NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY RESTING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM A ROCKSPRINGS TO AUSTIN TO BRYAN/COLLEGE
STATION LINE. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA
IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS MOISTURE POOLS NEAR THE FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERRUNS IT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP PROMOTE MORE FOG ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 DOWN TO ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS AS WE SAW SEVERAL SPOTS THIS MORNING GET DOWN BELOW
1/2 MILE VISIBILITY. THE LIGHT WINDS AND PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REPEAT THIS TONIGHT. HAVE HELD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...LATER SHIFTS CAN
EVALUATE THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG AND ISSUE THE PRODUCT AS
WARRANTED.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY SHOW A MOIST SURFACE LAYER TRAPPED
UNDER THE ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MORNING
CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND LONGER SATURDAY MORNING WITH A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S SATURDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHILE THE REST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRING THE ONLY MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN
THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATE AND NORTHERN MEXICO BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD STAY TO THE EAST. A TAIL END SHOWER COULD CLIP
LEE...FAYETTE...BASTROP...OR LAVACA COUNTIES SO HAVE INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS. LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY THE BEST CAPE WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL IN OUR
AREA SHOULD JUST BE SHOWERS.

THE FRONT WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY AND SUNNY WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S
ALSO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
COULD BE A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO NEAR 20
PERCENT AND THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  67  53  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  67  51  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  71  52  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  66  51  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  77  52  78  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  65  51  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             45  74  51  77  48 /   0   0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  67  52  75  58 /  -   10  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  71  53  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  73  53  77  52 /   0   0  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KMAF 122025
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
225 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A northwest flow/zonal upper air pattern does not bode well for
rain chances the next seven days. Across the area today we are
seeing clear skies with a weak cold front moving through the
Permian Basin and we can expect this pattern to persist. Southerly
flow will return tomorrow after the brief northerly wind shift
today, and will be interrupted by the passage of weak fronts on
Sunday and Tuesday as weak disturbances move across the plains in
the progressive flow. Fortunately wind speeds should remain low
enough to prevent critical fire weather conditions from developing
in this dry air.

The only chance for precipitation will be after this forecast
period, late next weekend. However even this is doubtful since the
upper air pattern remains zonal and the only reflection of
precipitation is in the model QPF fields, as this is know to be
too aggressive in the extended periods.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  70  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       35  74  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  76  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  41  76  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 41  71  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          33  71  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          35  73  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  73  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         39  72  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  74  40  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/10




000
FXUS64 KCRP 122016
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
216 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...PERSISTENCE...ALONG
WITH ALL STATISTICAL AND MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS DENSE FOG WILL
BE WIDESPREAD AGAIN TONIGHT. GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE WILL GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SOME
BUST POTENTIAL SHOULD STRATUS DOMINATE BUT THAT LOOKS PRETTY
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. LOWERED LOW TEMPS A BIT FROM PREV FCST DUE
TO GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDS.

FOG/STRATUS WILL ERODE THROUGH MID-MORNING AND SHOULD BE GONE BY
NOON. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS AROUND AS DEEPER LLVL MSTR
LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK FRONT WILL WASH OUT
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWFA ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH ONSHORE FLOW BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE FOG POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND HV ADDED
MENTION TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT INCREASED HUMIDITY...BUT WITH
LITTLE ORGANIZATION RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE. WEAK
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND LATE MONDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR EXPECTED WEATHER. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...EXTENDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK....

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    55  74  57  78  56  /   0  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          50  71  54  75  57  /   0  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            54  82  55  83  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             52  78  54  82  55  /   0   0  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          57  70  60  73  60  /   0  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           50  80  54  83  51  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        52  77  54  78  56  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  71  60  73  59  /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TJ/70...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 122016
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
116 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM SUNNY WEATHER
TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. A VERY WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES BY JUST A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY
BUT WESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE MORE WARM DRY WEATHER LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS INDICATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM DRY LOW IMPACT
WEATHER. HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TODAY BUT BECOME FLATTENED AS IT DOES
SO. THUS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
YET MORE WARM DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

ANOTHER RIDGE WILL MEANWHILE AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH
FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL COOL ONLY AROUND 5 TO 57 DEGREES WITH MONDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS SUSTAINING WARM DRY WEATHER. THEN A FAST MOVING
SHORT WAVE WITH A COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS THE REGION CAUSING NEAR
BREEZY WINDS THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 13/00Z-14/00Z...P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. LT E TO
SE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE S TO SW AOB 10KTS AFT 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... UPPER RIDGE OVER ARE WILL GET BROKEN DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH...AFTER A 5 TO 10 DEGREE COOL DOWN BY MONDAY...WILL SEE A
RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS. VENT RATES WILL RANGE
FROM POOR TO GOOD THIS WEEKEND BEFORE FALLING GENERALLY TO POOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 40  77  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           37  75  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              34  74  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              35  73  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              30  56  31  53 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   36  74  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             33  70  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  32  75  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               31  75  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      41  76  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               33  74  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            38  79  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              40  73  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  36  78  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            35  75  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          38  74  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           31  74  33  73 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   33  75  35  74 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                34  75  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               39  74  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 33  66  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               30  64  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                35  64  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 33  69  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               33  73  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               33  74  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            24  70  26  69 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  31  71  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   25  75  26  73 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              25  75  26  73 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 32  72  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  32  77  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 30  76  34  76 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          32  76  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              34  76  40  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ




000
FXUS64 KHGX 122007
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
207 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL HELP DRIVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER STATE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL THEN SHIFT AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE CHANCES
FOR FOG. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. THE BEST TIME PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE FOG AREA LIFTING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LAST OF THE FOG SHOULD LIFT OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.

WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED THUNDER IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SOUNDING PROFILES ARE NOT AS CONDUCIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT. GFSBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY LOOK BETTER FOR MONDAY
THAN THE MODEL HAS SHOWN OVER THE PAST FOUR OR FIVE MODEL RUNS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION OF PATCHY FOG FORMING ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL GO
ANOTHER FEW CYCLES AND LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL
RUNS.

40

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE MARINE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME ENE-E AS THIS OCCURS AND
WILL INCREASE IN SPEED. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION/ADVISORY FLAGS WILL BE
REQUIRED OFFSHORE. WINDS SHOULD SWING RIGHT BACK TO THE SE SAT
NIGHT AND REMAIN AT MODERATE SPEEDS UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST MON AFTN. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL TRANSITION
BACK TO THE SE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE REGION.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT
COULD BE A SET UP FOR A MULTI-DAY SEA FOG ISSUE - DEPENDENT ON
EVENTUAL WATER TEMPS AT THAT TIME. WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE LATER.
47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...
REMNANT CIGS FROM EARLIER FOG WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS & MCLEAR SKIES TO PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
EVENING SOUTH OF I-10 & WEST OF I-45 AS LIGHT WINDS AND MOISTURE
POOL AHEAD A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. SOME FOG
MAY BE DENSE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME 1500-3000FT CIGS TO FILL IN
AFTER 8Z AND PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON SAT - WITH SOME
GRADUAL LIFTING IN THE AFTN HOURS. E WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE AS THE FRONT REFERENCED ABOVE BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      48  64  50  71  57 /   0  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              51  66  49  71  59 /   0  10  10  20  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            55  62  54  69  59 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47




000
FXUS64 KEWX 121837 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREA
SITES. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIRES MODELS
AND MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST FOR THE BOUNDARY TO STALL
BETWEEN THE ESCARPMENT AND THE COASTAL PLAINS. IF THIS
VERIFY (BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG OR TO THE NORTH OF
I-35 CORRIDOR)...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT MAPS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPING OF STRATUS
AROUND 11Z/12Z TIME FRAME PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VBSYS ALONG
THE I-35 TERMINALS TO ABOUT 17Z/18Z SATURDAY. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 14Z THROUGH 16Z SATURDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTERWARD. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 SITES AS WELL AS A
LOW CLOUD DECK AROUND 025 TO 035 KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS OF 9 AM.
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES REMAIN
FROM PLEASANTON TO GONZALES AND LA GRANGE. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KAUS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OTHER I-35
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-11Z AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE AT 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT KAUS AROUND
12Z SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              50  68  54  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  71  53  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  66  52  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  77  53  78  48 /   0   0  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  65  52  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  75  52  77  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  69  53  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   51  68  53  75  58 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  72  54  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  74  54  77  52 /   0   0  -   10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 121837 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREA
SITES. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIRES MODELS
AND MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST FOR THE BOUNDARY TO STALL
BETWEEN THE ESCARPMENT AND THE COASTAL PLAINS. IF THIS
VERIFY (BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG OR TO THE NORTH OF
I-35 CORRIDOR)...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT MAPS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPING OF STRATUS
AROUND 11Z/12Z TIME FRAME PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VBSYS ALONG
THE I-35 TERMINALS TO ABOUT 17Z/18Z SATURDAY. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 14Z THROUGH 16Z SATURDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTERWARD. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 SITES AS WELL AS A
LOW CLOUD DECK AROUND 025 TO 035 KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS OF 9 AM.
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES REMAIN
FROM PLEASANTON TO GONZALES AND LA GRANGE. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KAUS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OTHER I-35
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-11Z AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE AT 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT KAUS AROUND
12Z SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              50  68  54  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  71  53  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  66  52  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  77  53  78  48 /   0   0  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  65  52  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  75  52  77  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  69  53  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   51  68  53  75  58 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  72  54  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  74  54  77  52 /   0   0  -   10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 121837 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREA
SITES. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIRES MODELS
AND MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST FOR THE BOUNDARY TO STALL
BETWEEN THE ESCARPMENT AND THE COASTAL PLAINS. IF THIS
VERIFY (BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG OR TO THE NORTH OF
I-35 CORRIDOR)...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT MAPS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPING OF STRATUS
AROUND 11Z/12Z TIME FRAME PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VBSYS ALONG
THE I-35 TERMINALS TO ABOUT 17Z/18Z SATURDAY. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 14Z THROUGH 16Z SATURDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTERWARD. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 SITES AS WELL AS A
LOW CLOUD DECK AROUND 025 TO 035 KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS OF 9 AM.
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES REMAIN
FROM PLEASANTON TO GONZALES AND LA GRANGE. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KAUS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OTHER I-35
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-11Z AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE AT 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT KAUS AROUND
12Z SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              50  68  54  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  71  53  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  66  52  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  77  53  78  48 /   0   0  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  65  52  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  75  52  77  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  69  53  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   51  68  53  75  58 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  72  54  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  74  54  77  52 /   0   0  -   10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 121837 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREA
SITES. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIRES MODELS
AND MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST FOR THE BOUNDARY TO STALL
BETWEEN THE ESCARPMENT AND THE COASTAL PLAINS. IF THIS
VERIFY (BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG OR TO THE NORTH OF
I-35 CORRIDOR)...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT MAPS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPING OF STRATUS
AROUND 11Z/12Z TIME FRAME PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VBSYS ALONG
THE I-35 TERMINALS TO ABOUT 17Z/18Z SATURDAY. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 14Z THROUGH 16Z SATURDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTERWARD. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 SITES AS WELL AS A
LOW CLOUD DECK AROUND 025 TO 035 KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS OF 9 AM.
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES REMAIN
FROM PLEASANTON TO GONZALES AND LA GRANGE. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KAUS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OTHER I-35
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-11Z AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE AT 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT KAUS AROUND
12Z SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              50  68  54  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  71  53  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  66  52  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  77  53  78  48 /   0   0  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  65  52  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  75  52  77  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  69  53  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   51  68  53  75  58 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  72  54  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  74  54  77  52 /   0   0  -   10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KEWX 121837 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1237 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREA
SITES. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIRES MODELS
AND MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST FOR THE BOUNDARY TO STALL
BETWEEN THE ESCARPMENT AND THE COASTAL PLAINS. IF THIS
VERIFY (BOUNDARY STALLS ALONG OR TO THE NORTH OF
I-35 CORRIDOR)...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME-HEIGHT MAPS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPING OF STRATUS
AROUND 11Z/12Z TIME FRAME PERIOD WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VBSYS ALONG
THE I-35 TERMINALS TO ABOUT 17Z/18Z SATURDAY. ACROSS KDRT...MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 14Z THROUGH 16Z SATURDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTERWARD. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 SITES AS WELL AS A
LOW CLOUD DECK AROUND 025 TO 035 KFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS OF 9 AM.
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES REMAIN
FROM PLEASANTON TO GONZALES AND LA GRANGE. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KAUS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OTHER I-35
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-11Z AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE AT 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT KAUS AROUND
12Z SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              50  68  54  74  55 /   0  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  68  52  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     47  71  53  76  53 /   0  -   10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            45  66  52  72  50 /   0   0  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           50  77  53  78  48 /   0   0  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  65  52  73  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  75  52  77  48 /   0   0  -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        47  69  53  74  53 /   0  -   10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   51  68  53  75  58 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  72  54  75  53 /   0   0  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  74  54  77  52 /   0   0  -   10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KFWD 121832 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1232 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY.

NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL RETURN MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THE MORNING FOG ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING FEW CLOUDS...BUT SOME
OF THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS IN RECENT WEEKS SHOW THAT PLENTY OF
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FILTERING
INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY...AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE IN WACO AROUND MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH STRATOCU CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN THE METROPLEX...AT THAT
POINT...CEILINGS WOULD BE VFR.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
THE COLD FRONTAL THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING 5 OR SO DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY...RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WITH MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION THE HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
IN MORE OF THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO
THE REGION. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER...WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S.

78.JG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  59  48  65  48 /   0   0   5  20  30
WACO, TX              40  64  48  69  51 /   0   0  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             36  52  38  54  43 /   0   0   5  20  50
DENTON, TX            36  58  46  64  46 /   0   0   5  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          38  56  44  62  46 /   0   0   5  20  40
DALLAS, TX            42  58  48  65  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
TERRELL, TX           40  58  45  62  49 /   0   0   5  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         43  61  48  66  51 /   5   0  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            42  65  50  70  51 /   5   0  10  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     36  61  47  69  45 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/79



000
FXUS64 KFWD 121832 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1232 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY.

NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL RETURN MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THE MORNING FOG ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING FEW CLOUDS...BUT SOME
OF THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS IN RECENT WEEKS SHOW THAT PLENTY OF
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FILTERING
INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY...AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE IN WACO AROUND MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH STRATOCU CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN THE METROPLEX...AT THAT
POINT...CEILINGS WOULD BE VFR.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
THE COLD FRONTAL THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING 5 OR SO DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY...RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WITH MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION THE HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
IN MORE OF THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO
THE REGION. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER...WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S.

78.JG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  59  48  65  48 /   0   0   5  20  30
WACO, TX              40  64  48  69  51 /   0   0  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             36  52  38  54  43 /   0   0   5  20  50
DENTON, TX            36  58  46  64  46 /   0   0   5  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          38  56  44  62  46 /   0   0   5  20  40
DALLAS, TX            42  58  48  65  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
TERRELL, TX           40  58  45  62  49 /   0   0   5  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         43  61  48  66  51 /   5   0  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            42  65  50  70  51 /   5   0  10  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     36  61  47  69  45 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/79




000
FXUS64 KFWD 121832 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1232 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY.

NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL RETURN MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THE MORNING FOG ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING FEW CLOUDS...BUT SOME
OF THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS IN RECENT WEEKS SHOW THAT PLENTY OF
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN FILTERING
INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY...AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE IN WACO AROUND MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH STRATOCU CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN THE METROPLEX...AT THAT
POINT...CEILINGS WOULD BE VFR.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
THE COLD FRONTAL THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING 5 OR SO DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY...RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WITH MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION THE HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
IN MORE OF THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO
THE REGION. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER...WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S.

78.JG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  59  48  65  48 /   0   0   5  20  30
WACO, TX              40  64  48  69  51 /   0   0  10  20  20
PARIS, TX             36  52  38  54  43 /   0   0   5  20  50
DENTON, TX            36  58  46  64  46 /   0   0   5  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          38  56  44  62  46 /   0   0   5  20  40
DALLAS, TX            42  58  48  65  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
TERRELL, TX           40  58  45  62  49 /   0   0   5  20  50
CORSICANA, TX         43  61  48  66  51 /   5   0  10  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            42  65  50  70  51 /   5   0  10  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     36  61  47  69  45 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/79




000
FXUS64 KAMA 121751 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1151 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING COURTESY OF UPSLOPE SURFACE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. IF ANY FOG FORMS...IT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE BY AROUND
16Z SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT PATCHY FOG SATURDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BRING ALL SITES DOWN AT LEAST TO MVFR IF NOT
LOWER. FOR NOW HAVE JUST GONE MVFR AFTER 08Z BUT UPDATES MAY BE
NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON DENSENESS. WINDS MAY GUST AT KAMA
FOR A COUPLE HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT INTO TAFS.
WINDS WILL SWING FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY 18Z AND KDHT MAY
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY 08Z.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR DEPARTURES FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN
BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY...AND MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  DETAILS
ADDRESSED IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRENDS TO MORE ZONAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY.  DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT RESUMES SUNDAY AS NEXT WESTERN RIDGE TAKES SHAPE.  SHORTWAVE
TROF PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND TRANSLATES
EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMES
THURSDAY AS NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF OR CLOSED LOW
MOVES ASHORE.  IN SPITE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT...DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AS FEW CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING.  SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH BRIEFLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESPECTIVELY WITH NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.  SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLES.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLES AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KAMA 121751 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1151 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING COURTESY OF UPSLOPE SURFACE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. IF ANY FOG FORMS...IT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE BY AROUND
16Z SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT PATCHY FOG SATURDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BRING ALL SITES DOWN AT LEAST TO MVFR IF NOT
LOWER. FOR NOW HAVE JUST GONE MVFR AFTER 08Z BUT UPDATES MAY BE
NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON DENSENESS. WINDS MAY GUST AT KAMA
FOR A COUPLE HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT INTO TAFS.
WINDS WILL SWING FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY 18Z AND KDHT MAY
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY 08Z.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR DEPARTURES FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN
BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY...AND MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  DETAILS
ADDRESSED IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRENDS TO MORE ZONAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY.  DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT RESUMES SUNDAY AS NEXT WESTERN RIDGE TAKES SHAPE.  SHORTWAVE
TROF PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND TRANSLATES
EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMES
THURSDAY AS NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF OR CLOSED LOW
MOVES ASHORE.  IN SPITE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT...DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AS FEW CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING.  SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH BRIEFLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESPECTIVELY WITH NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.  SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLES.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLES AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KAMA 121751 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1151 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING COURTESY OF UPSLOPE SURFACE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. IF ANY FOG FORMS...IT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE BY AROUND
16Z SATURDAY.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT PATCHY FOG SATURDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BRING ALL SITES DOWN AT LEAST TO MVFR IF NOT
LOWER. FOR NOW HAVE JUST GONE MVFR AFTER 08Z BUT UPDATES MAY BE
NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON DENSENESS. WINDS MAY GUST AT KAMA
FOR A COUPLE HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT INTO TAFS.
WINDS WILL SWING FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY 18Z AND KDHT MAY
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY 08Z.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR DEPARTURES FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN
BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY...AND MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  DETAILS
ADDRESSED IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRENDS TO MORE ZONAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY.  DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT RESUMES SUNDAY AS NEXT WESTERN RIDGE TAKES SHAPE.  SHORTWAVE
TROF PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND TRANSLATES
EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMES
THURSDAY AS NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF OR CLOSED LOW
MOVES ASHORE.  IN SPITE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT...DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AS FEW CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING.  SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH BRIEFLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESPECTIVELY WITH NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.  SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLES.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLES AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KCRP 121738
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1138 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND
THAN YESTERDAY AND CLEAR SKIES. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT HWVR AS LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL MSTR
COMBINE TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO FORM ONCE
AGAIN. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW STRATUS OR FOG WILL
BE MORE PREVALENT BUT AM VERY CONFIDENT THAT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
IFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTL LIKELY LIFR WILL AFFECT ALL SITES BUT
LAREDO. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 16Z AS HEATING/MIXING TAKES
OVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...INLAND FOG/STRATUS ERODING AND SHOULD BE GONE
WITHIN THE HOUR. REST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE - ANOTHER SUNNY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH A LITTLE LESS
WIND THAN YESTERDAY. UPDATED TEXT/GRID PRODUCTS AVAILABLE SOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MORNING FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OR IT WILL BE MORE OF A STRATUS SITUATION WITH
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE FOG INDICATED AT VCT...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ALI...BUT FOR NOW JUST STRATUS FOR CRP AND VCT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING...SOME DENSE...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND
INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. THIS FOR SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID-
MORNING...EVENTUALLY LEAVING A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...AND DRIFT IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE AREA...THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT...OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD STALL AND OR
WEAKEN...NOT HAVING MUCH AFFECT ON THE REGION. ANY WINDS THAT DO
SHIFT NORTH SHOULD BE BACK TO SOUTHEAST BY MID-DAY SATURDAY.
LITTLE TO NO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN THE AREA MEANS RAIN CHANCES
ARE ALSO NIL. COULD SEE SOME FOG ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DRIER AIR ABOVE.

LONG TERM  (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE MASSIVE RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN TO OUR WEST PROVIDING THE CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FLATTENING OUT BY THE START OF
THE LONGTERM PERIOD. A BRIEF SHOT OF TROUGHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
QUICKLY REPLACED BY A RELOADING LONGWAVE RIDGE TO OUR WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A DRY START TO THE LONGTERM IN
MOST PLACES. BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE
EAST. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...AS THIS FRONT
SLIDES NORTH...ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SPOTS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH LATER ON MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY
CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN ZONES....AGAIN HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT
PRESENT.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
START OFF COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH LOWER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN
PLACE AND VERY WEAK COLD AIR/NEUTRAL ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS KICK IN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS 80 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO RAIN CHANCES LOOK
NULL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  55  73  56  78  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  51  70  53  75  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            86  55  81  54  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             84  53  77  53  82  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  57  68  59  73  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  51  79  53  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        82  53  76  53  78  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  56  69  59  73  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TJ/70...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KSJT 121737
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1137 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across the terminals the next
24 hours. Expect light winds through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 545 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR through the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds to start
will become northeast by late this morning, remaining
predominantly northeast through Saturday morning. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warm temperatures and benign weather will continue through tonight.
Weak northwest flow aloft will continue through Saturday morning.
Skies will remain mostly clear throughout the next 24 hours. Surface
high pressure centered in south central Canada this morning will
translate southeast into Iowa by early Saturday morning. This will
allow northeast flow to pick up today across west central Texas, and
slightly cooler temperatures across the Big Country. As the surface
high continues southeastward tonight, northeast winds will shift to
the southeast in our area, allowing moisture to begin increasing
slightly late tonight. Highs will be in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees along and north of I-20, and in the low to mid 70s for the
rest of the area. With clear skies, and a slightly cooler air mass
moving into the area tonight, lows will drop into the lower 30s in
valleys and low lying areas and upper 30s elsewhere.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Temperatures, especially the daily highs, will continue to be well-
above normal for this time of year. Our area will have a brief
hiatus from the bone dry conditions this weekend, but the lack of
mentionable rain chances will continue through Thursday of next
week. As winds veer to the southeast and south on Saturday, low-
level moisture will increase. With low-level jet developing Saturday
night, south winds will increase. Boundary layer RH field suggests
at least patchy low cloud development overnight and early Sunday
morning- something which our area has not seen in recent weeks.
This will result in mild temperatures Saturday night with lows
only expected to be in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Highs
on Sunday will be in the 70-75 degree range.

An upper shortwave trough will dive southeast into the Southern
Plains by Monday morning, and into the lower Mississippi Valley by
Monday evening. Associated weak cold front will push south across
our area early Monday morning, with gusty north winds expected for a
few hours following the frontal passage. Temperatures will only be a
few degrees cooler Monday, mainly across the northern half of our
area. Surface high will settle southeast across our area Monday
evening, and into south-central Texas overnight. With clear skies
and drier air back in the area, good radiational cooling across the
southern part of our area should allow temperatures to drop into
the mid to upper 30s for overnight lows. Redevelopment of south
winds across the northern half of our area should keep lows above
40 degrees.

Another shortwave trough is progged to drop southeast across the mid-
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, with associated weak cold front
entering our area Tuesday evening and early Tuesday night. This
should result in mainly just a wind shift. Wednesday and Thursday
look warm and dry for our area. An upper level ridge is progged to
shift east into Texas on Wednesday. Increased and gusty south winds
are anticipated Wednesday and Thursday, with a trough in the lee of
the Rockies and increased surface pressure gradient.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  36  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  76  38  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  78  38  72  49 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/24




000
FXUS64 KHGX 121728
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1128 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
REMNANT CIGS FROM EARLIER FOG WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AND
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS & MCLEAR SKIES TO PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
EVENING SOUTH OF I-10 & WEST OF I-45 AS LIGHT WINDS AND MOISTURE
POOL AHEAD A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. SOME FOG
MAY BE DENSE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME 1500-3000FT CIGS TO FILL IN
AFTER 8Z AND PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE DAY ON SAT - WITH SOME
GRADUAL LIFTING IN THE AFTN HOURS. E WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE AS THE FRONT REFERENCED ABOVE BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
A 9 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF
CROCKETT AND MADISONVILLE...MAINLY BETWEEN PALESTINE AND TEMPLE.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER SE TEXAS.

ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH 10 AM...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP13 AND NAM12 BOTH MOVE THE WEAK
FRONT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT THINK THAT THE FRONT WILL
HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE TEMPERATURES. DO LIKE THE MAV AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO NORTHERLY MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON BY SUNSET. A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THOSE AREAS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

FOR THIS UPDATE ADJUSTED WINDS...TEMPERATURES...HUMIDITY...AND
SKY CONDITIONS. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  48  65  49  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  50  66  48  69 /   0   0  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  55  62  54  66 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBRO 121727
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1127 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BE RETROGRADING WESTWARD
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE EARLY
THIS EVENING GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE
BY MID MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG ONGOING THIS MORNING...WITH LIMITED IMPACT
SO FAR. SOME REDUCED VSBY AT BRO. FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAWN.
VFR REST OF DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POSSIBLE BRIEF DENSE
EPISODE RIGHT AROUND DAWN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND EXTENDS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRADDLES THE
CWA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...FRESH HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE WEST AND CANADA OVER THE PLAINS.

TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL COUNTERACT CURRENT DRIER AIR TO SOME EXTENT AND
WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS WILL EQUALIZE WITH
LOCAL HIGH PRESSURE TO YIELD A VERY FLAT GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE RETURN FLOW OF TODAY WILL NOW FIGURE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BECAUSE THE DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE A FLOOR FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCE...THE NAM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR FOG
THAN THE GFS...THE INGREDIENTS FOR A RADIATIONAL FOG EVENT SEEM TO
BE IN PLACE. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MID SATURDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES. THAT SAID...BRIEF DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.

SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST SOUTHEAST BUT WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AS FRESH HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS ARRIVAL FROM
THE NORTH. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON RANGING IN COVERAGE FROM FEW TO
BROKEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SCOSCHE LOWER ON SATURDAY THAN
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TO THE UPPER 70S OR 80...ONLY SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AND COASTAL WATERS WILL QUICKLY
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RELATIVELY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RETURN FLOW
SETS UP. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN
SHORT...LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM
WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A FAIRLY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE GULF WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND...SUPPORTING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND AND LOW
SEAS. NEW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND LATER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF ON
SATURDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK SLIGHTLY IN DIRECTION TO EAST OR
EAST SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS ON TAP MONDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE OFFSHORE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT MORE MODERATE LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/60




000
FXUS64 KLUB 121712
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1112 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS BY 09-11Z LOOK TO ALLOW LOW STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL THREE TERMINALS AS A RESULT FROM MOIST
UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS. THE EXTENT OF HOW LOW CIGS OR VIS WILL GO
IS STILL IN QUESTION AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE IN TO THE AREA. CIGS WILL BE
KEPT AT BKN015 FOR THE TIME BEING AND WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED
IN FUTURE TAF CYCLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS LAST NIGHT IN SURFACE TROUGHING...
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS POISED TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY UNDER DRY NW FLOW. UNLIKE YESTERDAY/S
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM INDICATED
ONLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER. STEADY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
COMPLETE WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COOLING HOWEVER LOOKS
TOO TAME TO GARNER ANY MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH MAX TEMPS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

BY TONIGHT...MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENING IN A ZONAL
MANNER DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING WESTWARD. NAM IS OVERLY BULLISH WITH
DENSE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THIS MARGINAL UPSLOPE REGIME AND
SOUNDINGS FROM NON-NAM GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. NONETHELESS...KEPT THE INHERITED PATCHY FOG
MENTION INTACT FOR NOW AS THIS DARK HORSE SCENARIO IS NOT THAT FAR
FETCHED CONSIDERING FEBRUARY IS OUR FOGGIEST MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

LONG TERM...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE QUITE A SPREAD WITH 8-13
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS STATISTICS FOR SITES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS CAN BURN OFF AND HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MIX IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WE WILL THEN SEE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH SOUTH AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FRONTS
WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK AND FROM RISING TOO MUCH. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY
BREEZY FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST. NEXT WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY BUT AGAIN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WE HEAD BACK INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD SO THIS WILL MARK THE START OF THE WARMEST PART OF THE
FORECAST FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO FORECAST THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN EITHER. MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51




000
FXUS64 KLUB 121712
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1112 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS BY 09-11Z LOOK TO ALLOW LOW STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL THREE TERMINALS AS A RESULT FROM MOIST
UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS. THE EXTENT OF HOW LOW CIGS OR VIS WILL GO
IS STILL IN QUESTION AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE IN TO THE AREA. CIGS WILL BE
KEPT AT BKN015 FOR THE TIME BEING AND WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED
IN FUTURE TAF CYCLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS LAST NIGHT IN SURFACE TROUGHING...
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS POISED TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY UNDER DRY NW FLOW. UNLIKE YESTERDAY/S
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM INDICATED
ONLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER. STEADY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
COMPLETE WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COOLING HOWEVER LOOKS
TOO TAME TO GARNER ANY MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH MAX TEMPS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

BY TONIGHT...MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENING IN A ZONAL
MANNER DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING WESTWARD. NAM IS OVERLY BULLISH WITH
DENSE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THIS MARGINAL UPSLOPE REGIME AND
SOUNDINGS FROM NON-NAM GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. NONETHELESS...KEPT THE INHERITED PATCHY FOG
MENTION INTACT FOR NOW AS THIS DARK HORSE SCENARIO IS NOT THAT FAR
FETCHED CONSIDERING FEBRUARY IS OUR FOGGIEST MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

LONG TERM...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE QUITE A SPREAD WITH 8-13
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS STATISTICS FOR SITES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS CAN BURN OFF AND HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MIX IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WE WILL THEN SEE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH SOUTH AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FRONTS
WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK AND FROM RISING TOO MUCH. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY
BREEZY FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST. NEXT WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY BUT AGAIN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WE HEAD BACK INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD SO THIS WILL MARK THE START OF THE WARMEST PART OF THE
FORECAST FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO FORECAST THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN EITHER. MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51




000
FXUS64 KMAF 121655
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1055 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. North winds of 5 to 10 mph
will become east by this evening and continue overnight. There
is the potential for MVFR ceilings to develop at some of the
terminals on or after 12z Saturday. Will monitor this potential
for the next TAF issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, in light northerly flow
veering to east under mostly clear skies.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough remains over the eastern conus and an upper ridge
over the western conus putting the CWA under northwest flow aloft.
The upper pattern flattens out somewhat on Sunday as a shortwave
moves over the Upper Midwest allowing for a trough to develop over
the Southern Plains.  This upper trough will deepen and move over
the eastern conus during the early part of next week.  Upper ridging
will take shape over the CWA during the middle to late part of next
week.

A weak backdoor cold front will move into the area today but
temperatures are not expected to change much from yesterday. Low
level moisture will increase across the eastern CWA on Saturday as
surface winds become southerly resulting in slightly cooler
temperatures. Another weak cold front will push into the area
during the Sunday/Monday time frame, but temperatures are still
expected to remain above normal. After Monday, temperatures are
expected to gradually increase through next Friday with
temperatures on Friday being in the upper 70s to lower 80s across
much of the area. No precipitation is expected through the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  37  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  32  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  47  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  75  41  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 67  40  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          70  32  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  28  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  37  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  38  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75  39  71  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80




000
FXUS64 KHGX 121542
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
942 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A 9 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF
CROCKETT AND MADISONVILLE...MAINLY BETWEEN PALESTINE AND TEMPLE.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER SE TEXAS.

ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH 10 AM...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP13 AND NAM12 BOTH MOVE THE WEAK
FRONT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT THINK THAT THE FRONT WILL
HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE TEMPERATURES. DO LIKE THE MAV AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO NORTHERLY MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON BY SUNSET. A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THOSE AREAS BEHIND THE
FRONT.

FOR THIS UPDATE ADJUSTED WINDS...TEMPERATURES...HUMIDITY...AND
SKY CONDITIONS.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  48  65  49  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  50  66  48  69 /   0   0  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  55  62  54  66 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...47




000
FXUS64 KEWX 121508
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
908 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS OF 9 AM.
VISIBILITY HAS IMPROVED ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES REMAIN
FROM PLEASANTON TO GONZALES AND LA GRANGE. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KAUS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OTHER I-35
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-11Z AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE AT 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT KAUS AROUND
12Z SATURDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  47  66  53  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  43  66  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  46  70  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  43  65  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  49  76  54  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  43  64  50  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  45  73  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  45  67  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  49  66  51  73 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  47  70  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  47  72  54  77 /   0   0   0  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH




000
FXUS64 KCRP 121506
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
906 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...INLAND FOG/STRATUS ERODING AND SHOULD BE GONE
WITHIN THE HOUR. REST OF PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE - ANOTHER SUNNY UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH A LITTLE LESS
WIND THAN YESTERDAY. UPDATED TEXT/GRID PRODUCTS AVAILABLE SOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...MORNING FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OR IT WILL BE MORE OF A STRATUS SITUATION WITH
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE FOG INDICATED AT VCT...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ALI...BUT FOR NOW JUST STRATUS FOR CRP AND VCT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING...SOME DENSE...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND
INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. THIS FOR SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID-
MORNING...EVENTUALLY LEAVING A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...AND DRIFT IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE AREA...THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT...OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD STALL AND OR
WEAKEN...NOT HAVING MUCH AFFECT ON THE REGION. ANY WINDS THAT DO
SHIFT NORTH SHOULD BE BACK TO SOUTHEAST BY MID-DAY SATURDAY.
LITTLE TO NO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN THE AREA MEANS RAIN CHANCES
ARE ALSO NIL. COULD SEE SOME FOG ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DRIER AIR ABOVE.

LONG TERM  (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE MASSIVE RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN TO OUR WEST PROVIDING THE CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FLATTENING OUT BY THE START OF
THE LONGTERM PERIOD. A BRIEF SHOT OF TROUGHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
QUICKLY REPLACED BY A RELOADING LONGWAVE RIDGE TO OUR WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A DRY START TO THE LONGTERM IN
MOST PLACES. BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE
EAST. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...AS THIS FRONT
SLIDES NORTH...ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SPOTS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH LATER ON MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY
CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN ZONES....AGAIN HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT
PRESENT.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
START OFF COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH LOWER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN
PLACE AND VERY WEAK COLD AIR/NEUTRAL ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS KICK IN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS 80 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO RAIN CHANCES LOOK
NULL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  55  73  56  78  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  51  70  53  75  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            86  55  81  54  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             84  53  77  53  82  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  57  68  59  73  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  51  79  53  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        82  53  76  53  78  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  56  69  59  73  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TJ/70...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KBRO 121200 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
600 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG ONGOING THIS MORNING...WITH LIMITED IMPACT
SO FAR. SOME REDUCED VSBY AT BRO. FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAWN.
VFR REST OF DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POSSIBLE BRIEF DENSE
EPISODE RIGHT AROUND DAWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND EXTENDS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRADDLES THE
CWA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...FRESH HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE WEST AND CANADA OVER THE PLAINS.

TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL COUNTERACT CURRENT DRIER AIR TO SOME EXTENT AND
WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS WILL EQUALIZE WITH
LOCAL HIGH PRESSURE TO YIELD A VERY FLAT GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE RETURN FLOW OF TODAY WILL NOW FIGURE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BECAUSE THE DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE A FLOOR FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCE...THE NAM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR FOG
THAN THE GFS...THE INGREDIENTS FOR A RADIATIONAL FOG EVENT SEEM TO
BE IN PLACE. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MID SATURDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES. THAT SAID...BRIEF DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.

SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST SOUTHEAST BUT WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AS FRESH HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS ARRIVAL FROM
THE NORTH. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON RANGING IN COVERAGE FROM FEW TO
BROKEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SCOSCHE LOWER ON SATURDAY THAN
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TO THE UPPER 70S OR 80...ONLY SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AND COASTAL WATERS WILL QUICKLY
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RELATIVELY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RETURN FLOW
SETS UP. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN
SHORT...LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM
WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A FAIRLY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE GULF WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND...SUPPORTING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND AND LOW
SEAS. NEW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND LATER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF ON
SATURDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK SLIGHTLY IN DIRECTION TO EAST OR
EAST SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS ON TAP MONDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE OFFSHORE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT MORE MODERATE LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/65




000
FXUS64 KBRO 121200 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
600 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG ONGOING THIS MORNING...WITH LIMITED IMPACT
SO FAR. SOME REDUCED VSBY AT BRO. FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAWN.
VFR REST OF DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POSSIBLE BRIEF DENSE
EPISODE RIGHT AROUND DAWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND EXTENDS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRADDLES THE
CWA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...FRESH HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE WEST AND CANADA OVER THE PLAINS.

TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL COUNTERACT CURRENT DRIER AIR TO SOME EXTENT AND
WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS WILL EQUALIZE WITH
LOCAL HIGH PRESSURE TO YIELD A VERY FLAT GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE RETURN FLOW OF TODAY WILL NOW FIGURE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BECAUSE THE DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE A FLOOR FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCE...THE NAM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR FOG
THAN THE GFS...THE INGREDIENTS FOR A RADIATIONAL FOG EVENT SEEM TO
BE IN PLACE. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MID SATURDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES. THAT SAID...BRIEF DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.

SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST SOUTHEAST BUT WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AS FRESH HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS ARRIVAL FROM
THE NORTH. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON RANGING IN COVERAGE FROM FEW TO
BROKEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SCOSCHE LOWER ON SATURDAY THAN
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TO THE UPPER 70S OR 80...ONLY SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AND COASTAL WATERS WILL QUICKLY
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RELATIVELY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RETURN FLOW
SETS UP. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN
SHORT...LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM
WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A FAIRLY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE GULF WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND...SUPPORTING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND AND LOW
SEAS. NEW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND LATER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF ON
SATURDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK SLIGHTLY IN DIRECTION TO EAST OR
EAST SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS ON TAP MONDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE OFFSHORE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT MORE MODERATE LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/65



000
FXUS64 KBRO 121200 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
600 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG ONGOING THIS MORNING...WITH LIMITED IMPACT
SO FAR. SOME REDUCED VSBY AT BRO. FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER DAWN.
VFR REST OF DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POSSIBLE BRIEF DENSE
EPISODE RIGHT AROUND DAWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND EXTENDS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRADDLES THE
CWA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...FRESH HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE WEST AND CANADA OVER THE PLAINS.

TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL COUNTERACT CURRENT DRIER AIR TO SOME EXTENT AND
WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS WILL EQUALIZE WITH
LOCAL HIGH PRESSURE TO YIELD A VERY FLAT GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE RETURN FLOW OF TODAY WILL NOW FIGURE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BECAUSE THE DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE A FLOOR FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCE...THE NAM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR FOG
THAN THE GFS...THE INGREDIENTS FOR A RADIATIONAL FOG EVENT SEEM TO
BE IN PLACE. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MID SATURDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES. THAT SAID...BRIEF DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.

SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST SOUTHEAST BUT WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AS FRESH HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS ARRIVAL FROM
THE NORTH. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON RANGING IN COVERAGE FROM FEW TO
BROKEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SCOSCHE LOWER ON SATURDAY THAN
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TO THE UPPER 70S OR 80...ONLY SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AND COASTAL WATERS WILL QUICKLY
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RELATIVELY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RETURN FLOW
SETS UP. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN
SHORT...LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM
WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A FAIRLY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE GULF WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND...SUPPORTING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND AND LOW
SEAS. NEW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND LATER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF ON
SATURDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK SLIGHTLY IN DIRECTION TO EAST OR
EAST SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS ON TAP MONDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE OFFSHORE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT MORE MODERATE LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/65




000
FXUS64 KEWX 121146 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
546 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KAUS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OTHER I-35
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-11Z AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE AT 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT KAUS AROUND
12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  47  66  53  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  43  66  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  46  70  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  43  65  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  49  76  54  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  43  64  50  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  45  73  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  45  67  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  49  66  51  73 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  47  70  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  47  72  54  77 /   0   0   0  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN



000
FXUS64 KEWX 121146 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
546 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KAUS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OTHER I-35
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-11Z AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE AT 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT KAUS AROUND
12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  47  66  53  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  43  66  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  46  70  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  43  65  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  49  76  54  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  43  64  50  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  45  73  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  45  67  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  49  66  51  73 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  47  70  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  47  72  54  77 /   0   0   0  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 121146 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
546 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION.../12Z UPDATE/
VFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KAUS. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE OTHER I-35
TERMINALS. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z-11Z AT THE I-35 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE AT 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 16Z THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME FOG ESPECIALLY AT KAUS AROUND
12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  47  66  53  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  43  66  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  46  70  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  43  65  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  49  76  54  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  43  64  50  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  45  73  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  45  67  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  49  66  51  73 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  47  70  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  47  72  54  77 /   0   0   0  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...KARNES...LAVACA...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KSJT 121145
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
545 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR through the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds to start
will become northeast by late this morning, remaining
predominantly northeast through Saturday morning. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warm temperatures and benign weather will continue through tonight.
Weak northwest flow aloft will continue through Saturday morning.
Skies will remain mostly clear throughout the next 24 hours. Surface
high pressure centered in south central Canada this morning will
translate southeast into Iowa by early Saturday morning. This will
allow northeast flow to pick up today across west central Texas, and
slightly cooler temperatures across the Big Country. As the surface
high continues southeastward tonight, northeast winds will shift to
the southeast in our area, allowing moisture to begin increasing
slightly late tonight. Highs will be in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees along and north of I-20, and in the low to mid 70s for the
rest of the area. With clear skies, and a slightly cooler air mass
moving into the area tonight, lows will drop into the lower 30s in
valleys and low lying areas and upper 30s elsewhere.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Temperatures, especially the daily highs, will continue to be well-
above normal for this time of year. Our area will have a brief
hiatus from the bone dry conditions this weekend, but the lack of
mentionable rain chances will continue through Thursday of next
week. As winds veer to the southeast and south on Saturday, low-
level moisture will increase. With low-level jet developing Saturday
night, south winds will increase. Boundary layer RH field suggests
at least patchy low cloud development overnight and early Sunday
morning- something which our area has not seen in recent weeks.
This will result in mild temperatures Saturday night with lows
only expected to be in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Highs
on Sunday will be in the 70-75 degree range.

An upper shortwave trough will dive southeast into the Southern
Plains by Monday morning, and into the lower Mississippi Valley by
Monday evening. Associated weak cold front will push south across
our area early Monday morning, with gusty north winds expected for a
few hours following the frontal passage. Temperatures will only be a
few degrees cooler Monday, mainly across the northern half of our
area. Surface high will settle southeast across our area Monday
evening, and into south-central Texas overnight. With clear skies
and drier air back in the area, good radiational cooling across the
southern part of our area should allow temperatures to drop into
the mid to upper 30s for overnight lows. Redevelopment of south
winds across the northern half of our area should keep lows above
40 degrees.

Another shortwave trough is progged to drop southeast across the mid-
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, with associated weak cold front
entering our area Tuesday evening and early Tuesday night. This
should result in mainly just a wind shift. Wednesday and Thursday
look warm and dry for our area. An upper level ridge is progged to
shift east into Texas on Wednesday. Increased and gusty south winds
are anticipated Wednesday and Thursday, with a trough in the lee of
the Rockies and increased surface pressure gradient.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  36  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  76  38  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  78  38  72  49 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 121145
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
545 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR through the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds to start
will become northeast by late this morning, remaining
predominantly northeast through Saturday morning. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warm temperatures and benign weather will continue through tonight.
Weak northwest flow aloft will continue through Saturday morning.
Skies will remain mostly clear throughout the next 24 hours. Surface
high pressure centered in south central Canada this morning will
translate southeast into Iowa by early Saturday morning. This will
allow northeast flow to pick up today across west central Texas, and
slightly cooler temperatures across the Big Country. As the surface
high continues southeastward tonight, northeast winds will shift to
the southeast in our area, allowing moisture to begin increasing
slightly late tonight. Highs will be in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees along and north of I-20, and in the low to mid 70s for the
rest of the area. With clear skies, and a slightly cooler air mass
moving into the area tonight, lows will drop into the lower 30s in
valleys and low lying areas and upper 30s elsewhere.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Temperatures, especially the daily highs, will continue to be well-
above normal for this time of year. Our area will have a brief
hiatus from the bone dry conditions this weekend, but the lack of
mentionable rain chances will continue through Thursday of next
week. As winds veer to the southeast and south on Saturday, low-
level moisture will increase. With low-level jet developing Saturday
night, south winds will increase. Boundary layer RH field suggests
at least patchy low cloud development overnight and early Sunday
morning- something which our area has not seen in recent weeks.
This will result in mild temperatures Saturday night with lows
only expected to be in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Highs
on Sunday will be in the 70-75 degree range.

An upper shortwave trough will dive southeast into the Southern
Plains by Monday morning, and into the lower Mississippi Valley by
Monday evening. Associated weak cold front will push south across
our area early Monday morning, with gusty north winds expected for a
few hours following the frontal passage. Temperatures will only be a
few degrees cooler Monday, mainly across the northern half of our
area. Surface high will settle southeast across our area Monday
evening, and into south-central Texas overnight. With clear skies
and drier air back in the area, good radiational cooling across the
southern part of our area should allow temperatures to drop into
the mid to upper 30s for overnight lows. Redevelopment of south
winds across the northern half of our area should keep lows above
40 degrees.

Another shortwave trough is progged to drop southeast across the mid-
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, with associated weak cold front
entering our area Tuesday evening and early Tuesday night. This
should result in mainly just a wind shift. Wednesday and Thursday
look warm and dry for our area. An upper level ridge is progged to
shift east into Texas on Wednesday. Increased and gusty south winds
are anticipated Wednesday and Thursday, with a trough in the lee of
the Rockies and increased surface pressure gradient.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  36  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  76  38  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  78  38  72  49 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 121145
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
545 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR through the next 24 hours. Light and variable winds to start
will become northeast by late this morning, remaining
predominantly northeast through Saturday morning. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warm temperatures and benign weather will continue through tonight.
Weak northwest flow aloft will continue through Saturday morning.
Skies will remain mostly clear throughout the next 24 hours. Surface
high pressure centered in south central Canada this morning will
translate southeast into Iowa by early Saturday morning. This will
allow northeast flow to pick up today across west central Texas, and
slightly cooler temperatures across the Big Country. As the surface
high continues southeastward tonight, northeast winds will shift to
the southeast in our area, allowing moisture to begin increasing
slightly late tonight. Highs will be in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees along and north of I-20, and in the low to mid 70s for the
rest of the area. With clear skies, and a slightly cooler air mass
moving into the area tonight, lows will drop into the lower 30s in
valleys and low lying areas and upper 30s elsewhere.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Temperatures, especially the daily highs, will continue to be well-
above normal for this time of year. Our area will have a brief
hiatus from the bone dry conditions this weekend, but the lack of
mentionable rain chances will continue through Thursday of next
week. As winds veer to the southeast and south on Saturday, low-
level moisture will increase. With low-level jet developing Saturday
night, south winds will increase. Boundary layer RH field suggests
at least patchy low cloud development overnight and early Sunday
morning- something which our area has not seen in recent weeks.
This will result in mild temperatures Saturday night with lows
only expected to be in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Highs
on Sunday will be in the 70-75 degree range.

An upper shortwave trough will dive southeast into the Southern
Plains by Monday morning, and into the lower Mississippi Valley by
Monday evening. Associated weak cold front will push south across
our area early Monday morning, with gusty north winds expected for a
few hours following the frontal passage. Temperatures will only be a
few degrees cooler Monday, mainly across the northern half of our
area. Surface high will settle southeast across our area Monday
evening, and into south-central Texas overnight. With clear skies
and drier air back in the area, good radiational cooling across the
southern part of our area should allow temperatures to drop into
the mid to upper 30s for overnight lows. Redevelopment of south
winds across the northern half of our area should keep lows above
40 degrees.

Another shortwave trough is progged to drop southeast across the mid-
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, with associated weak cold front
entering our area Tuesday evening and early Tuesday night. This
should result in mainly just a wind shift. Wednesday and Thursday
look warm and dry for our area. An upper level ridge is progged to
shift east into Texas on Wednesday. Increased and gusty south winds
are anticipated Wednesday and Thursday, with a trough in the lee of
the Rockies and increased surface pressure gradient.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  36  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  76  38  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  78  38  72  49 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 121141
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
541 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FALLING TO ZERO HAS FOG QUICKLY FORMING AND
GOING DENSE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST
TERMINALS FROM METRO SOUTHWARD WILL FALL AND REMAIN (V)LIFR
WITHIN FG THROUGH 14-15Z. A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE UNDER SKC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE PASSIVE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
TONIGHT WILL HAVE EVENING BREEZES BECOMING VARIABLE...THEN STICKING
LIGHT NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY SUNRISE. THE THREAT FOR EARLY SATURDAY
FOG WILL BE CONFINED JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...TYPICALLY SHORT-
LIVED MVFR CAT BR BEFORE LOCAL BREEZES VEER MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
EARLY SATURDAY (OVERNIGHT) DRIER AND COLDER AIR UNDERCUTTING WARMER
AND MORE MOIST MID LEVEL AIR MAY CREATE A LATE PERIOD MVFR DECK.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS YESTERDAY BROUGHT NEAR RECORD WARMTH TO PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. IAH`S (HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL) HIGH OF 80 DEGREES
WAS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE RECORD OF 82 SET IN 1999...AND HOU`S
(HOUSTON HOBBY) HIGH OF 78 DEGREES WAS A DEGREE OFF THE RECORD OF 79
LAST SET IN 2000. AFTER AREAS OF MORNING FOG (SOME POSSIBLY DENSE)...
EXPECT TO SEE WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY (TODAY`S RECORD TEMPS INCLUDE
84 AT IAH SET IN 1922 AND 82 AT HOU SET IN 1962). A WEAK FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL HELP TO
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL EARLY TO MID FEBRUARY READINGS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY TO ALLOW FOR VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA...
BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A NORTH
TEXAS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. SEVERAL DRY DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.  42

MARINE...
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE
DAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND
INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CREATE EASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY...VEERING
MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MORE MODERATE WEEKEND WIND SPEEDS...PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RESPONDING WEEKEND SEAS WILL LIFT FROM
TONIGHT`S NEAR 2 FOOT HEIGHTS TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSAGE MONDAY WILL INCREASE
(PRIMARILY EASTERN WATER) SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. 31

CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE BACK IN 1899...GALVESTON RECORDED ITS ALL-TIME RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 8 DEGREES. THE ISLAND SAW SOME RELIEF THE NEXT
DAY WHEN THE LOW ONLY GOT DOWN TO 10 DEGREES.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  48  65  49  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  50  66  48  69 /   0   0  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  55  62  54  66 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALLER...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 121141
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
541 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FALLING TO ZERO HAS FOG QUICKLY FORMING AND
GOING DENSE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST
TERMINALS FROM METRO SOUTHWARD WILL FALL AND REMAIN (V)LIFR
WITHIN FG THROUGH 14-15Z. A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE UNDER SKC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE PASSIVE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
TONIGHT WILL HAVE EVENING BREEZES BECOMING VARIABLE...THEN STICKING
LIGHT NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY SUNRISE. THE THREAT FOR EARLY SATURDAY
FOG WILL BE CONFINED JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...TYPICALLY SHORT-
LIVED MVFR CAT BR BEFORE LOCAL BREEZES VEER MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
EARLY SATURDAY (OVERNIGHT) DRIER AND COLDER AIR UNDERCUTTING WARMER
AND MORE MOIST MID LEVEL AIR MAY CREATE A LATE PERIOD MVFR DECK.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS YESTERDAY BROUGHT NEAR RECORD WARMTH TO PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. IAH`S (HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL) HIGH OF 80 DEGREES
WAS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE RECORD OF 82 SET IN 1999...AND HOU`S
(HOUSTON HOBBY) HIGH OF 78 DEGREES WAS A DEGREE OFF THE RECORD OF 79
LAST SET IN 2000. AFTER AREAS OF MORNING FOG (SOME POSSIBLY DENSE)...
EXPECT TO SEE WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY (TODAY`S RECORD TEMPS INCLUDE
84 AT IAH SET IN 1922 AND 82 AT HOU SET IN 1962). A WEAK FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL HELP TO
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL EARLY TO MID FEBRUARY READINGS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY TO ALLOW FOR VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA...
BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A NORTH
TEXAS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. SEVERAL DRY DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.  42

MARINE...
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE
DAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND
INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CREATE EASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY...VEERING
MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MORE MODERATE WEEKEND WIND SPEEDS...PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RESPONDING WEEKEND SEAS WILL LIFT FROM
TONIGHT`S NEAR 2 FOOT HEIGHTS TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSAGE MONDAY WILL INCREASE
(PRIMARILY EASTERN WATER) SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. 31

CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE BACK IN 1899...GALVESTON RECORDED ITS ALL-TIME RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 8 DEGREES. THE ISLAND SAW SOME RELIEF THE NEXT
DAY WHEN THE LOW ONLY GOT DOWN TO 10 DEGREES.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  48  65  49  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  50  66  48  69 /   0   0  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  55  62  54  66 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALLER...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 121141
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
541 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FALLING TO ZERO HAS FOG QUICKLY FORMING AND
GOING DENSE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST
TERMINALS FROM METRO SOUTHWARD WILL FALL AND REMAIN (V)LIFR
WITHIN FG THROUGH 14-15Z. A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE UNDER SKC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE PASSIVE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
TONIGHT WILL HAVE EVENING BREEZES BECOMING VARIABLE...THEN STICKING
LIGHT NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY SUNRISE. THE THREAT FOR EARLY SATURDAY
FOG WILL BE CONFINED JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...TYPICALLY SHORT-
LIVED MVFR CAT BR BEFORE LOCAL BREEZES VEER MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
EARLY SATURDAY (OVERNIGHT) DRIER AND COLDER AIR UNDERCUTTING WARMER
AND MORE MOIST MID LEVEL AIR MAY CREATE A LATE PERIOD MVFR DECK.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS YESTERDAY BROUGHT NEAR RECORD WARMTH TO PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. IAH`S (HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL) HIGH OF 80 DEGREES
WAS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE RECORD OF 82 SET IN 1999...AND HOU`S
(HOUSTON HOBBY) HIGH OF 78 DEGREES WAS A DEGREE OFF THE RECORD OF 79
LAST SET IN 2000. AFTER AREAS OF MORNING FOG (SOME POSSIBLY DENSE)...
EXPECT TO SEE WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY (TODAY`S RECORD TEMPS INCLUDE
84 AT IAH SET IN 1922 AND 82 AT HOU SET IN 1962). A WEAK FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL HELP TO
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL EARLY TO MID FEBRUARY READINGS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY TO ALLOW FOR VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA...
BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A NORTH
TEXAS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. SEVERAL DRY DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.  42

MARINE...
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE
DAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND
INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CREATE EASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY...VEERING
MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MORE MODERATE WEEKEND WIND SPEEDS...PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RESPONDING WEEKEND SEAS WILL LIFT FROM
TONIGHT`S NEAR 2 FOOT HEIGHTS TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSAGE MONDAY WILL INCREASE
(PRIMARILY EASTERN WATER) SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. 31

CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE BACK IN 1899...GALVESTON RECORDED ITS ALL-TIME RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 8 DEGREES. THE ISLAND SAW SOME RELIEF THE NEXT
DAY WHEN THE LOW ONLY GOT DOWN TO 10 DEGREES.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  48  65  49  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  50  66  48  69 /   0   0  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  55  62  54  66 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALLER...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KFWD 121140 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
540 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A KPRX /PARIS/ TO KACT /WACO/ TO KGRK
/KILLEEN/ LINE AS OF 11Z...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
THE COLD FRONTAL THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING 5 OR SO DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY...RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WITH MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION THE HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
IN MORE OF THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO
THE REGION. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER...WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S.

78.JG

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  40  59  48  65 /   0   0   0   5  20
WACO, TX              71  40  64  48  69 /   0   0   0  10  20
PARIS, TX             65  36  52  38  54 /   0   0   0   5  20
DENTON, TX            67  36  58  46  64 /   0   0   0   5  20
MCKINNEY, TX          66  38  56  44  62 /   0   0   0   5  20
DALLAS, TX            67  42  58  48  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
TERRELL, TX           68  40  58  45  62 /   0   0   0   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         70  43  61  48  66 /   0   5   0  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            72  42  65  50  70 /   0   5   0  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  36  61  47  69 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/78




000
FXUS64 KFWD 121140 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
540 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A KPRX /PARIS/ TO KACT /WACO/ TO KGRK
/KILLEEN/ LINE AS OF 11Z...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
THE COLD FRONTAL THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING 5 OR SO DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY...RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WITH MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION THE HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
IN MORE OF THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO
THE REGION. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER...WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S.

78.JG

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  40  59  48  65 /   0   0   0   5  20
WACO, TX              71  40  64  48  69 /   0   0   0  10  20
PARIS, TX             65  36  52  38  54 /   0   0   0   5  20
DENTON, TX            67  36  58  46  64 /   0   0   0   5  20
MCKINNEY, TX          66  38  56  44  62 /   0   0   0   5  20
DALLAS, TX            67  42  58  48  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
TERRELL, TX           68  40  58  45  62 /   0   0   0   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         70  43  61  48  66 /   0   5   0  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            72  42  65  50  70 /   0   5   0  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  36  61  47  69 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/78



000
FXUS64 KFWD 121140 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
540 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A KPRX /PARIS/ TO KACT /WACO/ TO KGRK
/KILLEEN/ LINE AS OF 11Z...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
THE COLD FRONTAL THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING 5 OR SO DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY...RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WITH MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION THE HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
IN MORE OF THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO
THE REGION. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER...WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S.

78.JG

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  40  59  48  65 /   0   0   0   5  20
WACO, TX              71  40  64  48  69 /   0   0   0  10  20
PARIS, TX             65  36  52  38  54 /   0   0   0   5  20
DENTON, TX            67  36  58  46  64 /   0   0   0   5  20
MCKINNEY, TX          66  38  56  44  62 /   0   0   0   5  20
DALLAS, TX            67  42  58  48  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
TERRELL, TX           68  40  58  45  62 /   0   0   0   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         70  43  61  48  66 /   0   5   0  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            72  42  65  50  70 /   0   5   0  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  36  61  47  69 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/78




000
FXUS64 KCRP 121125
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
525 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OR IT WILL BE MORE OF A STRATUS SITUATION WITH
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE FOG INDICATED AT VCT...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ALI...BUT FOR NOW JUST STRATUS FOR CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING...SOME DENSE...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND
INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. THIS FOR SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID-
MORNING...EVENTUALLY LEAVING A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...AND DRIFT IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE AREA...THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT...OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD STALL AND OR
WEAKEN...NOT HAVING MUCH AFFECT ON THE REGION. ANY WINDS THAT DO
SHIFT NORTH SHOULD BE BACK TO SOUTHEAST BY MID-DAY SATURDAY.
LITTLE TO NO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN THE AREA MEANS RAIN CHANCES
ARE ALSO NIL. COULD SEE SOME FOG ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DRIER AIR ABOVE.

LONG TERM  (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE MASSIVE RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN TO OUR WEST PROVIDING THE CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FLATTENING OUT BY THE START OF
THE LONGTERM PERIOD. A BRIEF SHOT OF TROUGHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
QUICKLY REPLACED BY A RELOADING LONGWAVE RIDGE TO OUR WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A DRY START TO THE LONGTERM IN
MOST PLACES. BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE
EAST. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...AS THIS FRONT
SLIDES NORTH...ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SPOTS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH LATER ON MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY
CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN ZONES....AGAIN HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT
PRESENT.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
START OFF COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH LOWER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN
PLACE AND VERY WEAK COLD AIR/NEUTRAL ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS KICK IN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS 80 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO RAIN CHANCES LOOK
NULL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  55  73  56  78  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  51  70  53  75  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            86  55  81  54  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             84  53  77  53  82  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  57  68  59  73  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  51  79  53  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        82  53  76  53  78  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  56  69  59  73  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 121125
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
525 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OR IT WILL BE MORE OF A STRATUS SITUATION WITH
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE FOG INDICATED AT VCT...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ALI...BUT FOR NOW JUST STRATUS FOR CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING...SOME DENSE...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND
INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. THIS FOR SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID-
MORNING...EVENTUALLY LEAVING A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...AND DRIFT IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE AREA...THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT...OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD STALL AND OR
WEAKEN...NOT HAVING MUCH AFFECT ON THE REGION. ANY WINDS THAT DO
SHIFT NORTH SHOULD BE BACK TO SOUTHEAST BY MID-DAY SATURDAY.
LITTLE TO NO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN THE AREA MEANS RAIN CHANCES
ARE ALSO NIL. COULD SEE SOME FOG ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DRIER AIR ABOVE.

LONG TERM  (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE MASSIVE RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN TO OUR WEST PROVIDING THE CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FLATTENING OUT BY THE START OF
THE LONGTERM PERIOD. A BRIEF SHOT OF TROUGHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
QUICKLY REPLACED BY A RELOADING LONGWAVE RIDGE TO OUR WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A DRY START TO THE LONGTERM IN
MOST PLACES. BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE
EAST. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...AS THIS FRONT
SLIDES NORTH...ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SPOTS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH LATER ON MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY
CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN ZONES....AGAIN HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT
PRESENT.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
START OFF COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH LOWER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN
PLACE AND VERY WEAK COLD AIR/NEUTRAL ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS KICK IN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS 80 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO RAIN CHANCES LOOK
NULL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  55  73  56  78  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  51  70  53  75  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            86  55  81  54  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             84  53  77  53  82  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  57  68  59  73  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  51  79  53  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        82  53  76  53  78  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  56  69  59  73  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 121125
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
525 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER FOG WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OR IT WILL BE MORE OF A STRATUS SITUATION WITH
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE FOG INDICATED AT VCT...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ALI...BUT FOR NOW JUST STRATUS FOR CRP AND VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING...SOME DENSE...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND
INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. THIS FOR SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID-
MORNING...EVENTUALLY LEAVING A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...AND DRIFT IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE AREA...THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT...OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD STALL AND OR
WEAKEN...NOT HAVING MUCH AFFECT ON THE REGION. ANY WINDS THAT DO
SHIFT NORTH SHOULD BE BACK TO SOUTHEAST BY MID-DAY SATURDAY.
LITTLE TO NO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN THE AREA MEANS RAIN CHANCES
ARE ALSO NIL. COULD SEE SOME FOG ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DRIER AIR ABOVE.

LONG TERM  (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE MASSIVE RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN TO OUR WEST PROVIDING THE CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FLATTENING OUT BY THE START OF
THE LONGTERM PERIOD. A BRIEF SHOT OF TROUGHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
QUICKLY REPLACED BY A RELOADING LONGWAVE RIDGE TO OUR WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A DRY START TO THE LONGTERM IN
MOST PLACES. BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE
EAST. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...AS THIS FRONT
SLIDES NORTH...ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SPOTS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH LATER ON MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY
CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN ZONES....AGAIN HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT
PRESENT.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
START OFF COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH LOWER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN
PLACE AND VERY WEAK COLD AIR/NEUTRAL ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS KICK IN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS 80 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO RAIN CHANCES LOOK
NULL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  55  73  56  78  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  51  70  53  75  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            86  55  81  54  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             84  53  77  53  82  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  57  68  59  73  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  51  79  53  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        82  53  76  53  78  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  56  69  59  73  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KLUB 121124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT N WINDS VEERING E BY THE AFTN. BY EARLY SAT MORNING...
WINDOW COULD OPEN FOR FOG AND/OR STRATUS AT LBB AND PVW AS
UPSLOPE WINDS TREND MORE MOIST. LATER TAFS WILL REVISIT THIS AND
INSERT A TAF MENTION IF THIS LOOKS MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS LAST NIGHT IN SURFACE TROUGHING...
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS POISED TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY UNDER DRY NW FLOW. UNLIKE YESTERDAY/S
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM INDICATED
ONLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER. STEADY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
COMPLETE WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COOLING HOWEVER LOOKS
TOO TAME TO GARNER ANY MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH MAX TEMPS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

BY TONIGHT...MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENING IN A ZONAL
MANNER DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING WESTWARD. NAM IS OVERLY BULLISH WITH
DENSE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THIS MARGINAL UPSLOPE REGIME AND
SOUNDINGS FROM NON-NAM GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. NONETHELESS...KEPT THE INHERITED PATCHY FOG
MENTION INTACT FOR NOW AS THIS DARK HORSE SCENARIO IS NOT THAT FAR
FETCHED CONSIDERING FEBRUARY IS OUR FOGGIEST MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

LONG TERM...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE QUITE A SPREAD WITH 8-13
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS STATISTICS FOR SITES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS CAN BURN OFF AND HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MIX IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WE WILL THEN SEE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH SOUTH AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FRONTS
WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK AND FROM RISING TOO MUCH. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY
BREEZY FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST. NEXT WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY BUT AGAIN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WE HEAD BACK INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD SO THIS WILL MARK THE START OF THE WARMEST PART OF THE
FORECAST FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO FORECAST THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN EITHER. MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93




000
FXUS64 KLUB 121124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT N WINDS VEERING E BY THE AFTN. BY EARLY SAT MORNING...
WINDOW COULD OPEN FOR FOG AND/OR STRATUS AT LBB AND PVW AS
UPSLOPE WINDS TREND MORE MOIST. LATER TAFS WILL REVISIT THIS AND
INSERT A TAF MENTION IF THIS LOOKS MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS LAST NIGHT IN SURFACE TROUGHING...
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS POISED TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY UNDER DRY NW FLOW. UNLIKE YESTERDAY/S
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM INDICATED
ONLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER. STEADY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
COMPLETE WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COOLING HOWEVER LOOKS
TOO TAME TO GARNER ANY MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH MAX TEMPS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

BY TONIGHT...MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENING IN A ZONAL
MANNER DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING WESTWARD. NAM IS OVERLY BULLISH WITH
DENSE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THIS MARGINAL UPSLOPE REGIME AND
SOUNDINGS FROM NON-NAM GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. NONETHELESS...KEPT THE INHERITED PATCHY FOG
MENTION INTACT FOR NOW AS THIS DARK HORSE SCENARIO IS NOT THAT FAR
FETCHED CONSIDERING FEBRUARY IS OUR FOGGIEST MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

LONG TERM...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE QUITE A SPREAD WITH 8-13
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS STATISTICS FOR SITES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS CAN BURN OFF AND HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MIX IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WE WILL THEN SEE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH SOUTH AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FRONTS
WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK AND FROM RISING TOO MUCH. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY
BREEZY FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST. NEXT WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY BUT AGAIN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WE HEAD BACK INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD SO THIS WILL MARK THE START OF THE WARMEST PART OF THE
FORECAST FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO FORECAST THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN EITHER. MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93




000
FXUS64 KLUB 121124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT N WINDS VEERING E BY THE AFTN. BY EARLY SAT MORNING...
WINDOW COULD OPEN FOR FOG AND/OR STRATUS AT LBB AND PVW AS
UPSLOPE WINDS TREND MORE MOIST. LATER TAFS WILL REVISIT THIS AND
INSERT A TAF MENTION IF THIS LOOKS MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS LAST NIGHT IN SURFACE TROUGHING...
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS POISED TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY UNDER DRY NW FLOW. UNLIKE YESTERDAY/S
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM INDICATED
ONLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER. STEADY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
COMPLETE WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COOLING HOWEVER LOOKS
TOO TAME TO GARNER ANY MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH MAX TEMPS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

BY TONIGHT...MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENING IN A ZONAL
MANNER DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING WESTWARD. NAM IS OVERLY BULLISH WITH
DENSE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THIS MARGINAL UPSLOPE REGIME AND
SOUNDINGS FROM NON-NAM GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. NONETHELESS...KEPT THE INHERITED PATCHY FOG
MENTION INTACT FOR NOW AS THIS DARK HORSE SCENARIO IS NOT THAT FAR
FETCHED CONSIDERING FEBRUARY IS OUR FOGGIEST MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

LONG TERM...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE QUITE A SPREAD WITH 8-13
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS STATISTICS FOR SITES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS CAN BURN OFF AND HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MIX IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WE WILL THEN SEE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH SOUTH AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FRONTS
WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK AND FROM RISING TOO MUCH. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY
BREEZY FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST. NEXT WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY BUT AGAIN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WE HEAD BACK INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD SO THIS WILL MARK THE START OF THE WARMEST PART OF THE
FORECAST FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO FORECAST THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN EITHER. MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93



000
FXUS64 KEPZ 121120
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
420 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN THE BORDERLAND IS EXPECTED TODAY. A WARMING
TREND CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL COOL US DOWN A BIT ON SUNDAY. AFTER THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH REESTABLISHES OVER THE REGION. THUS LEADING TO WARM
TEMPERATURES... LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN OVER THE BORDERLAND FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THIS HAS LED TO A WARMING TREND ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL START TO
FLATTEN AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS PRETTY DRY...
THEREFORE NO RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY
CAUSE A SHIFT ON OUR SURFACE WIND PATTERNS THAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE LAST FEW DAYS.

BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA AS
IT MOVES EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IMPLIES THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR THE PAPAL VISIT NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK... A WARM... MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL START REACHING THE BORDERLAND. THIS WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST... BUT THERE IS LITTLE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF PAST FRIDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS DRY
FORECAST. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES... BECAUSE LOCAL EFFECTS MAY BE TRIGGER FOR THE
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 12/12Z-13/12Z
VFR CONDS P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. LT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE E TO SE 5-10KTS IN THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP VENT
RATES POOR TO FAIR THROUGH WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW WITH MIN RH`S IN THE TEENS FOR NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH JUST POOR TO FAIR RECOVERIES. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
WITH A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITIES IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTER A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN EVERYTHING WILL GO BACK TO THE CONDITIONS WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN THE PAST FEW DAYS... UNTIL A WARM AIR
MASS BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 74  40  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           73  37  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              72  34  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              72  35  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              57  30  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   72  36  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             70  33  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  74  32  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               74  31  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               74  33  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            75  38  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              71  40  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  74  36  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            73  35  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  38  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           72  31  74  34 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   74  33  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                74  34  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               72  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 68  33  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               65  30  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                64  35  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 69  33  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               72  33  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               73  33  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            70  24  70  27 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  71  31  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   74  25  75  27 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              74  25  75  27 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 71  32  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  76  32  77  38 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 75  30  76  35 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          74  32  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              75  34  76  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

CRESPO/BRICE




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 121120
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
420 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN THE BORDERLAND IS EXPECTED TODAY. A WARMING
TREND CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL COOL US DOWN A BIT ON SUNDAY. AFTER THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH REESTABLISHES OVER THE REGION. THUS LEADING TO WARM
TEMPERATURES... LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN OVER THE BORDERLAND FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THIS HAS LED TO A WARMING TREND ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL START TO
FLATTEN AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS PRETTY DRY...
THEREFORE NO RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY
CAUSE A SHIFT ON OUR SURFACE WIND PATTERNS THAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE LAST FEW DAYS.

BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA AS
IT MOVES EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IMPLIES THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR THE PAPAL VISIT NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK... A WARM... MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL START REACHING THE BORDERLAND. THIS WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST... BUT THERE IS LITTLE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF PAST FRIDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS DRY
FORECAST. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES... BECAUSE LOCAL EFFECTS MAY BE TRIGGER FOR THE
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 12/12Z-13/12Z
VFR CONDS P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. LT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE E TO SE 5-10KTS IN THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP VENT
RATES POOR TO FAIR THROUGH WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW WITH MIN RH`S IN THE TEENS FOR NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH JUST POOR TO FAIR RECOVERIES. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
WITH A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITIES IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTER A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN EVERYTHING WILL GO BACK TO THE CONDITIONS WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN THE PAST FEW DAYS... UNTIL A WARM AIR
MASS BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 74  40  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           73  37  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              72  34  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              72  35  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              57  30  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   72  36  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             70  33  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  74  32  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               74  31  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               74  33  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            75  38  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              71  40  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  74  36  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            73  35  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  38  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           72  31  74  34 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   74  33  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                74  34  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               72  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 68  33  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               65  30  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                64  35  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 69  33  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               72  33  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               73  33  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            70  24  70  27 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  71  31  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   74  25  75  27 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              74  25  75  27 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 71  32  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  76  32  77  38 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 75  30  76  35 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          74  32  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              75  34  76  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

CRESPO/BRICE



000
FXUS64 KEPZ 121120
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
420 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN THE BORDERLAND IS EXPECTED TODAY. A WARMING
TREND CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL COOL US DOWN A BIT ON SUNDAY. AFTER THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH REESTABLISHES OVER THE REGION. THUS LEADING TO WARM
TEMPERATURES... LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN OVER THE BORDERLAND FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THIS HAS LED TO A WARMING TREND ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL START TO
FLATTEN AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS PRETTY DRY...
THEREFORE NO RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY
CAUSE A SHIFT ON OUR SURFACE WIND PATTERNS THAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING THE LAST FEW DAYS.

BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA AS
IT MOVES EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IMPLIES THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR THE PAPAL VISIT NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK... A WARM... MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL START REACHING THE BORDERLAND. THIS WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST... BUT THERE IS LITTLE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF PAST FRIDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES ITS DRY
FORECAST. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES... BECAUSE LOCAL EFFECTS MAY BE TRIGGER FOR THE
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 12/12Z-13/12Z
VFR CONDS P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. LT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE E TO SE 5-10KTS IN THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP VENT
RATES POOR TO FAIR THROUGH WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW WITH MIN RH`S IN THE TEENS FOR NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH JUST POOR TO FAIR RECOVERIES. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
WITH A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITIES IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTER A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN EVERYTHING WILL GO BACK TO THE CONDITIONS WE
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN THE PAST FEW DAYS... UNTIL A WARM AIR
MASS BRINGS BACK RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 74  40  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           73  37  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              72  34  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              72  35  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              57  30  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   72  36  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             70  33  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  74  32  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               74  31  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  41  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               74  33  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            75  38  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              71  40  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  74  36  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            73  35  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          72  38  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           72  31  74  34 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   74  33  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                74  34  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               72  39  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 68  33  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               65  30  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                64  35  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 69  33  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               72  33  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               73  33  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            70  24  70  27 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  71  31  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   74  25  75  27 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              74  25  75  27 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 71  32  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  76  32  77  38 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 75  30  76  35 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          74  32  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              75  34  76  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

CRESPO/BRICE




000
FXUS64 KAMA 121056
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
456 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT PATCHY FOG SATURDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BRING ALL SITES DOWN AT LEAST TO MVFR IF NOT
LOWER. FOR NOW HAVE JUST GONE MVFR AFTER 08Z BUT UPDATES MAY BE
NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON DENSENESS. WINDS MAY GUST AT KAMA
FOR A COUPLE HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT INTO TAFS.
WINDS WILL SWING FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY 18Z AND KDHT MAY
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY 08Z.

BEAT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR DEPARTURES FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN
BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY...AND MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  DETAILS
ADDRESSED IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRENDS TO MORE ZONAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY.  DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT RESUMES SUNDAY AS NEXT WESTERN RIDGE TAKES SHAPE.  SHORTWAVE
TROF PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND TRANSLATES
EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMES
THURSDAY AS NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF OR CLOSED LOW
MOVES ASHORE.  IN SPITE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT...DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AS FEW CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING.  SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH BRIEFLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESPECTIVELY WITH NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.  SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLES.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLES AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/3




000
FXUS64 KAMA 121056
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
456 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT PATCHY FOG SATURDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BRING ALL SITES DOWN AT LEAST TO MVFR IF NOT
LOWER. FOR NOW HAVE JUST GONE MVFR AFTER 08Z BUT UPDATES MAY BE
NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON DENSENESS. WINDS MAY GUST AT KAMA
FOR A COUPLE HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT INTO TAFS.
WINDS WILL SWING FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY 18Z AND KDHT MAY
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY 08Z.

BEAT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR DEPARTURES FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN
BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY...AND MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  DETAILS
ADDRESSED IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRENDS TO MORE ZONAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY.  DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT RESUMES SUNDAY AS NEXT WESTERN RIDGE TAKES SHAPE.  SHORTWAVE
TROF PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND TRANSLATES
EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMES
THURSDAY AS NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF OR CLOSED LOW
MOVES ASHORE.  IN SPITE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT...DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AS FEW CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING.  SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH BRIEFLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESPECTIVELY WITH NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.  SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLES.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLES AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/3




000
FXUS64 KAMA 121034
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
434 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR DEPARTURES FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN
BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY...AND MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  DETAILS
ADDRESSED IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRENDS TO MORE ZONAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY.  DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT RESUMES SUNDAY AS NEXT WESTERN RIDGE TAKES SHAPE.  SHORTWAVE
TROF PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND TRANSLATES
EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMES
THURSDAY AS NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF OR CLOSED LOW
MOVES ASHORE.  IN SPITE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT...DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AS FEW CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING.  SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH BRIEFLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESPECTIVELY WITH NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.  SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLES.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLES AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.  03


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  29  64  38  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  56  26  53  32  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              60  30  66  36  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  63  29  60  40  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              66  30  68  36  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  63  30  65  38  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               64  30  60  39  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 64  30  67  35  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  59  29  62  36  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                65  30  66  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                58  27  53  37  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   62  28  57  38  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                63  30  54  39  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              66  31  57  39  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/03




000
FXUS64 KEWX 121017
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  47  66  53  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  43  66  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  46  70  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  43  65  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  49  76  54  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  43  64  50  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  45  73  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  45  67  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  49  66  51  73 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  47  70  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  47  72  54  77 /   0   0   0  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN



000
FXUS64 KEWX 121017
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  47  66  53  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  43  66  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  46  70  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  43  65  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  49  76  54  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  43  64  50  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  45  73  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  45  67  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  49  66  51  73 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  47  70  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  47  72  54  77 /   0   0   0  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KEWX 121017
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
417 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

OVERVIEW...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON -
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. MORE
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS.

SYNOPTIC H5 PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING PER WATER VAPOR AND
RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ARCING NW
BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. A H5 RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS PLACING TEXAS IN WEAK NW H5 FLOW
WITH NOTED SHAPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
ALONGSIDE A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. H925 TEMPS RANGED 24-18C
WEST TO EAST YESTERDAY THAT ALLOWED FOR NEAR RECORD HEAT. VALUES
WILL RANGE AROUND 23-15C TODAY SO MAX HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH YESTERDAYS VALUES. STILL -  ABOVE NORMAL AND QUITE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION THAT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKEST IN THE SW AND CENTRAL AREAS. BASED ON
SOME IMPLIED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER-TOP OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS OVER THE REGION...LOW-LVL MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION AND BE TOUGHER TO CLEAR OUT IN NE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS AND THE COOLER H925 TEMPS...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT REACH 70F TOWARDS THE AUSTIN AREA WHILE SAN
ANTONIO AND POINTS SW WILL WARM UP MORE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LOW-END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS...A DRY
WEEK IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO NEXT WEEK AND
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND THIS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION COULD LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH MINIMAL RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS REGION. IF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH
THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO NE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH LOW-END /20%/ LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FOR FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS BUT BEST PRECIPITATION LOCATION WILL BE
TOWARDS EAST/NORTH TEXAS. THERE COULD BE SOME POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS WACO AND HOUSTON
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN 100-300 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER - FEEL RISK IS
TO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR OUR REGION GIVEN INGREDIENT DISCONNECT HERE.
A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO TRUE COLD
AIR RESIDES BEHIND IT.

FOR TUES-THURS - EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE NO RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS POINT...FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AND THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO CLIMB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  47  66  53  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  43  66  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  46  70  52  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  43  65  51  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           84  49  76  54  78 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  43  64  50  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  45  73  52  77 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  45  67  51  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  49  66  51  73 /   0   0  -   10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  47  70  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  47  72  54  77 /   0   0   0  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN




000
FXUS64 KSJT 121002
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
402 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warm temperatures and benign weather will continue through tonight.
Weak northwest flow aloft will continue through Saturday morning.
Skies will remain mostly clear throughout the next 24 hours. Surface
high pressure centered in south central Canada this morning will
translate southeast into Iowa by early Saturday morning. This will
allow northeast flow to pick up today across west central Texas, and
slightly cooler temperatures across the Big Country. As the surface
high continues southeastward tonight, northeast winds will shift to
the southeast in our area, allowing moisture to begin increasing
slightly late tonight. Highs will be in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees along and north of I-20, and in the low to mid 70s for the
rest of the area. With clear skies, and a slightly cooler air mass
moving into the area tonight, lows will drop into the lower 30s in
valleys and low lying areas and upper 30s elsewhere.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Temperatures, especially the daily highs, will continue to be well-
above normal for this time of year. Our area will have a brief
hiatus from the bone dry conditions this weekend, but the lack of
mentionable rain chances will continue through Thursday of next
week. As winds veer to the southeast and south on Saturday, low-
level moisture will increase. With low-level jet developing Saturday
night, south winds will increase. Boundary layer RH field suggests
at least patchy low cloud development overnight and early Sunday
morning- something which our area has not seen in recent weeks.
This will result in mild temperatures Saturday night with lows
only expected to be in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Highs
on Sunday will be in the 70-75 degree range.

An upper shortwave trough will dive southeast into the Southern
Plains by Monday morning, and into the lower Mississippi Valley by
Monday evening. Associated weak cold front will push south across
our area early Monday morning, with gusty north winds expected for a
few hours following the frontal passage. Temperatures will only be a
few degrees cooler Monday, mainly across the northern half of our
area. Surface high will settle southeast across our area Monday
evening, and into south-central Texas overnight. With clear skies
and drier air back in the area, good radiational cooling across the
southern part of our area should allow temperatures to drop into
the mid to upper 30s for overnight lows. Redevelopment of south
winds across the northern half of our area should keep lows above
40 degrees.

Another shortwave trough is progged to drop southeast across the mid-
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, with associated weak cold front
entering our area Tuesday evening and early Tuesday night. This
should result in mainly just a wind shift. Wednesday and Thursday
look warm and dry for our area. An upper level ridge is progged to
shift east into Texas on Wednesday. Increased and gusty south winds
are anticipated Wednesday and Thursday, with a trough in the lee of
the Rockies and increased surface pressure gradient.

19

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  36  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  76  38  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  78  38  72  49 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KCRP 120958
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
358 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING...SOME DENSE...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND
INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. THIS FOR SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID-
MORNING...EVENTUALLY LEAVING A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...AND DRIFT IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE AREA...THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT...OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD STALL AND OR
WEAKEN...NOT HAVING MUCH AFFECT ON THE REGION. ANY WINDS THAT DO
SHIFT NORTH SHOULD BE BACK TO SOUTHEAST BY MID-DAY SATURDAY.
LITTLE TO NO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN THE AREA MEANS RAIN CHANCES
ARE ALSO NIL. COULD SEE SOME FOG ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DRIER AIR ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM  (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE MASSIVE RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN TO OUR WEST PROVIDING THE CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FLATTENING OUT BY THE START OF
THE LONGTERM PERIOD. A BRIEF SHOT OF TROUGHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
QUICKLY REPLACED BY A RELOADING LONGWAVE RIDGE TO OUR WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A DRY START TO THE LONGTERM IN
MOST PLACES. BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE
EAST. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...AS THIS FRONT
SLIDES NORTH...ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SPOTS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH LATER ON MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY
CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN ZONES....AGAIN HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT
PRESENT.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
START OFF COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH LOWER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN
PLACE AND VERY WEAK COLD AIR/NEUTRAL ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS KICK IN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS 80 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO RAIN CHANCES LOOK
NULL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  55  73  56  78  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  51  70  53  75  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            86  55  81  54  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             84  53  77  53  82  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  57  68  59  73  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  51  79  53  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        82  53  76  53  78  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  56  69  59  73  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
GH/77...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 120958
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
358 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING...SOME DENSE...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND
INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. THIS FOR SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID-
MORNING...EVENTUALLY LEAVING A MAINLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA DURING
THE DAY...AND DRIFT IN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE AREA...THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT...OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD STALL AND OR
WEAKEN...NOT HAVING MUCH AFFECT ON THE REGION. ANY WINDS THAT DO
SHIFT NORTH SHOULD BE BACK TO SOUTHEAST BY MID-DAY SATURDAY.
LITTLE TO NO SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN THE AREA MEANS RAIN CHANCES
ARE ALSO NIL. COULD SEE SOME FOG ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DRIER AIR ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM  (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE MASSIVE RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN TO OUR WEST PROVIDING THE CLEAR
SKIES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FLATTENING OUT BY THE START OF
THE LONGTERM PERIOD. A BRIEF SHOT OF TROUGHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
QUICKLY REPLACED BY A RELOADING LONGWAVE RIDGE TO OUR WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A DRY START TO THE LONGTERM IN
MOST PLACES. BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TOWARDS THE
EAST. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...AS THIS FRONT
SLIDES NORTH...ANOTHER COUPLE OF WARM DAYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SPOTS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDES THROUGH LATER ON MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY
CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN ZONES....AGAIN HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT
PRESENT.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP ANOTHER TIGHT LID ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
START OFF COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN WITH LOWER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN
PLACE AND VERY WEAK COLD AIR/NEUTRAL ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE
BUILDING HEIGHTS KICK IN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS 80 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO RAIN CHANCES LOOK
NULL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  55  73  56  78  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          79  51  70  53  75  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            86  55  81  54  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             84  53  77  53  82  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  57  68  59  73  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  51  79  53  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        82  53  76  53  78  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  56  69  59  73  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
GH/77...LONG TERM



000
FXUS64 KBRO 120946
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND EXTENDS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRADDLES THE
CWA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...FRESH HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE WEST AND CANADA OVER THE PLAINS.

TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL COUNTERACT CURRENT DRIER AIR TO SOME EXTENT AND
WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS WILL EQUALIZE WITH
LOCAL HIGH PRESSURE TO YIELD A VERY FLAT GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE RETURN FLOW OF TODAY WILL NOW FIGURE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BECAUSE THE DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE A FLOOR FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCE...THE NAM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR FOG
THAN THE GFS...THE INGREDIENTS FOR A RADIATIONAL FOG EVENT SEEM TO
BE IN PLACE. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MID SATURDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES. THAT SAID...BRIEF DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.

SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST SOUTHEAST BUT WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AS FRESH HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS ARRIVAL FROM
THE NORTH. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON RANGING IN COVERAGE FROM FEW TO
BROKEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SCOSCHE LOWER ON SATURDAY THAN
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TO THE UPPER 70S OR 80...ONLY SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AND COASTAL WATERS WILL QUICKLY
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RELATIVELY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BUT WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RETURN FLOW
SETS UP. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN
SHORT...LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM
WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A FAIRLY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE GULF WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND...SUPPORTING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND AND LOW
SEAS. NEW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND LATER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF ON
SATURDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK SLIGHTLY IN DIRECTION TO EAST OR
EAST SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS ON TAP MONDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE OFFSHORE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT MORE MODERATE LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  59  73  61 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          79  57  75  59 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            81  55  76  57 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              84  57  78  58 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  56  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  61  70  62 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BIRCHFIELD




000
FXUS64 KLUB 120946
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS LAST NIGHT IN SURFACE TROUGHING...
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS POISED TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY UNDER DRY NW FLOW. UNLIKE YESTERDAY/S
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM INDICATED
ONLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER. STEADY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
COMPLETE WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COOLING HOWEVER LOOKS
TOO TAME TO GARNER ANY MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH MAX TEMPS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

BY TONIGHT...MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENING IN A ZONAL
MANNER DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING WESTWARD. NAM IS OVERLY BULLISH WITH
DENSE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THIS MARGINAL UPSLOPE REGIME AND
SOUNDINGS FROM NON-NAM GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. NONETHELESS...KEPT THE INHERITED PATCHY FOG
MENTION INTACT FOR NOW AS THIS DARK HORSE SCENARIO IS NOT THAT FAR
FETCHED CONSIDERING FEBRUARY IS OUR FOGGIEST MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

.LONG TERM...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE QUITE A SPREAD WITH 8-13
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS STATISTICS FOR SITES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS CAN BURN OFF AND HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MIX IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WE WILL THEN SEE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH SOUTH AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FRONTS
WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK AND FROM RISING TOO MUCH. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY
BREEZY FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST. NEXT WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY BUT AGAIN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WE HEAD BACK INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD SO THIS WILL MARK THE START OF THE WARMEST PART OF THE
FORECAST FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO FORECAST THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN EITHER. MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14



000
FXUS64 KBRO 120946
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND EXTENDS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRADDLES THE
CWA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...FRESH HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE WEST AND CANADA OVER THE PLAINS.

TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL COUNTERACT CURRENT DRIER AIR TO SOME EXTENT AND
WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS WILL EQUALIZE WITH
LOCAL HIGH PRESSURE TO YIELD A VERY FLAT GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE RETURN FLOW OF TODAY WILL NOW FIGURE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BECAUSE THE DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE A FLOOR FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCE...THE NAM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR FOG
THAN THE GFS...THE INGREDIENTS FOR A RADIATIONAL FOG EVENT SEEM TO
BE IN PLACE. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MID SATURDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES. THAT SAID...BRIEF DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.

SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST SOUTHEAST BUT WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AS FRESH HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS ARRIVAL FROM
THE NORTH. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON RANGING IN COVERAGE FROM FEW TO
BROKEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SCOSCHE LOWER ON SATURDAY THAN
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TO THE UPPER 70S OR 80...ONLY SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AND COASTAL WATERS WILL QUICKLY
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RELATIVELY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BUT WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RETURN FLOW
SETS UP. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN
SHORT...LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM
WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A FAIRLY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE GULF WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND...SUPPORTING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND AND LOW
SEAS. NEW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND LATER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF ON
SATURDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK SLIGHTLY IN DIRECTION TO EAST OR
EAST SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS ON TAP MONDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE OFFSHORE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT MORE MODERATE LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  59  73  61 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          79  57  75  59 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            81  55  76  57 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              84  57  78  58 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  56  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  61  70  62 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BIRCHFIELD



000
FXUS64 KLUB 120946
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS LAST NIGHT IN SURFACE TROUGHING...
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS POISED TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY UNDER DRY NW FLOW. UNLIKE YESTERDAY/S
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM INDICATED
ONLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER. STEADY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
COMPLETE WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COOLING HOWEVER LOOKS
TOO TAME TO GARNER ANY MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH MAX TEMPS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

BY TONIGHT...MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENING IN A ZONAL
MANNER DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING WESTWARD. NAM IS OVERLY BULLISH WITH
DENSE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THIS MARGINAL UPSLOPE REGIME AND
SOUNDINGS FROM NON-NAM GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. NONETHELESS...KEPT THE INHERITED PATCHY FOG
MENTION INTACT FOR NOW AS THIS DARK HORSE SCENARIO IS NOT THAT FAR
FETCHED CONSIDERING FEBRUARY IS OUR FOGGIEST MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

.LONG TERM...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE QUITE A SPREAD WITH 8-13
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS STATISTICS FOR SITES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS CAN BURN OFF AND HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MIX IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WE WILL THEN SEE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH SOUTH AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FRONTS
WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK AND FROM RISING TOO MUCH. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY
BREEZY FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST. NEXT WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY BUT AGAIN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WE HEAD BACK INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD SO THIS WILL MARK THE START OF THE WARMEST PART OF THE
FORECAST FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO FORECAST THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN EITHER. MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14




000
FXUS64 KBRO 120946
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN PLACE UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND EXTENDS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CANADA. WHILE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRADDLES THE
CWA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...FRESH HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE WEST AND CANADA OVER THE PLAINS.

TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LIGHT TO
MDT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL COUNTERACT CURRENT DRIER AIR TO SOME EXTENT AND
WILL KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS WILL EQUALIZE WITH
LOCAL HIGH PRESSURE TO YIELD A VERY FLAT GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THE RETURN FLOW OF TODAY WILL NOW FIGURE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BECAUSE THE DEW POINTS WILL PROVIDE A FLOOR FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCE...THE NAM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR FOG
THAN THE GFS...THE INGREDIENTS FOR A RADIATIONAL FOG EVENT SEEM TO
BE IN PLACE. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MID SATURDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES. THAT SAID...BRIEF DENSE FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND DAWN...BUT SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.

SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST SOUTHEAST BUT WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE AS FRESH HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITS ARRIVAL FROM
THE NORTH. MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON RANGING IN COVERAGE FROM FEW TO
BROKEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SCOSCHE LOWER ON SATURDAY THAN
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID TO THE UPPER 70S OR 80...ONLY SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS AND COASTAL WATERS WILL QUICKLY
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RELATIVELY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BUT WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RETURN FLOW
SETS UP. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN
SHORT...LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM
WITH GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...A FAIRLY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE AREAS TODAY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE GULF WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE
INLAND...SUPPORTING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND AND LOW
SEAS. NEW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AND LATER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF ON
SATURDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK SLIGHTLY IN DIRECTION TO EAST OR
EAST SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS ON TAP MONDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE OFFSHORE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT MORE MODERATE LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  59  73  61 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          79  57  75  59 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            81  55  76  57 /   0   0  10  10
MCALLEN              84  57  78  58 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      85  56  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  61  70  62 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BIRCHFIELD



000
FXUS64 KLUB 120946
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS LAST NIGHT IN SURFACE TROUGHING...
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS POISED TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY UNDER DRY NW FLOW. UNLIKE YESTERDAY/S
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM INDICATED
ONLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER. STEADY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
COMPLETE WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COOLING HOWEVER LOOKS
TOO TAME TO GARNER ANY MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH MAX TEMPS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

BY TONIGHT...MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENING IN A ZONAL
MANNER DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING WESTWARD. NAM IS OVERLY BULLISH WITH
DENSE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THIS MARGINAL UPSLOPE REGIME AND
SOUNDINGS FROM NON-NAM GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. NONETHELESS...KEPT THE INHERITED PATCHY FOG
MENTION INTACT FOR NOW AS THIS DARK HORSE SCENARIO IS NOT THAT FAR
FETCHED CONSIDERING FEBRUARY IS OUR FOGGIEST MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

.LONG TERM...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE QUITE A SPREAD WITH 8-13
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS STATISTICS FOR SITES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS CAN BURN OFF AND HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MIX IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WE WILL THEN SEE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH SOUTH AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FRONTS
WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK AND FROM RISING TOO MUCH. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY
BREEZY FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST. NEXT WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY BUT AGAIN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WE HEAD BACK INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD SO THIS WILL MARK THE START OF THE WARMEST PART OF THE
FORECAST FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO FORECAST THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN EITHER. MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14




000
FXUS64 KMAF 120936
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
336 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, in light northerly flow
veering to east under mostly clear skies.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough remains over the eastern conus and an upper ridge
over the western conus putting the CWA under northwest flow aloft.
The upper pattern flattens out somewhat on Sunday as a shortwave
moves over the Upper Midwest allowing for a trough to develop over
the Southern Plains.  This upper trough will deepen and move over
the eastern conus during the early part of next week.  Upper ridging
will take shape over the CWA during the middle to late part of next
week.

A weak backdoor cold front will move into the area today but
temperatures are not expected to change much from yesterday. Low
level moisture will increase across the eastern CWA on Saturday as
surface winds become southerly resulting in slightly cooler
temperatures. Another weak cold front will push into the area
during the Sunday/Monday time frame, but temperatures are still
expected to remain above normal. After Monday, temperatures are
expected to gradually increase through next Friday with
temperatures on Friday being in the upper 70s to lower 80s across
much of the area. No precipitation is expected through the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  37  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  32  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  47  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  75  41  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 67  40  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          70  32  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  28  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  37  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  38  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75  39  71  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44




000
FXUS64 KMAF 120927
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
327 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough remains over the eastern conus and an upper ridge
over the western conus putting the CWA under northwest flow aloft.
The upper pattern flattens out somewhat on Sunday as a shortwave
moves over the Upper Midwest allowing for a trough to develop over
the Southern Plains.  This upper trough will deepen and move over
the eastern conus during the early part of next week.  Upper ridging
will take shape over the CWA during the middle to late part of next
week.

A weak backdoor cold front will move into the area today but
temperatures are not expected to change much from yesterday. Low
level moisture will increase across the eastern CWA on Saturday as
surface winds become southerly resulting in slightly cooler
temperatures. Another weak cold front will push into the area
during the Sunday/Monday time frame, but temperatures are still
expected to remain above normal. After Monday, temperatures are
expected to gradually increase through next Friday with
temperatures on Friday being in the upper 70s to lower 80s across
much of the area. No precipitation is expected through the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  37  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  32  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  47  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  75  41  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 67  40  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          70  32  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  28  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  37  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  38  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75  39  71  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80



000
FXUS64 KMAF 120927
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
327 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough remains over the eastern conus and an upper ridge
over the western conus putting the CWA under northwest flow aloft.
The upper pattern flattens out somewhat on Sunday as a shortwave
moves over the Upper Midwest allowing for a trough to develop over
the Southern Plains.  This upper trough will deepen and move over
the eastern conus during the early part of next week.  Upper ridging
will take shape over the CWA during the middle to late part of next
week.

A weak backdoor cold front will move into the area today but
temperatures are not expected to change much from yesterday. Low
level moisture will increase across the eastern CWA on Saturday as
surface winds become southerly resulting in slightly cooler
temperatures. Another weak cold front will push into the area
during the Sunday/Monday time frame, but temperatures are still
expected to remain above normal. After Monday, temperatures are
expected to gradually increase through next Friday with
temperatures on Friday being in the upper 70s to lower 80s across
much of the area. No precipitation is expected through the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  37  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  32  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  47  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  75  41  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 67  40  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          70  32  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  28  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  37  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  38  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75  39  71  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80




000
FXUS64 KMAF 120927
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
327 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough remains over the eastern conus and an upper ridge
over the western conus putting the CWA under northwest flow aloft.
The upper pattern flattens out somewhat on Sunday as a shortwave
moves over the Upper Midwest allowing for a trough to develop over
the Southern Plains.  This upper trough will deepen and move over
the eastern conus during the early part of next week.  Upper ridging
will take shape over the CWA during the middle to late part of next
week.

A weak backdoor cold front will move into the area today but
temperatures are not expected to change much from yesterday. Low
level moisture will increase across the eastern CWA on Saturday as
surface winds become southerly resulting in slightly cooler
temperatures. Another weak cold front will push into the area
during the Sunday/Monday time frame, but temperatures are still
expected to remain above normal. After Monday, temperatures are
expected to gradually increase through next Friday with
temperatures on Friday being in the upper 70s to lower 80s across
much of the area. No precipitation is expected through the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  37  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72  32  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         80  47  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  75  41  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 67  40  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          70  32  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          73  28  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  37  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         72  38  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75  39  71  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80




000
FXUS64 KHGX 120918
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
318 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS YESTERDAY BROUGHT NEAR RECORD WARMTH TO PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. IAH`S (HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL) HIGH OF 80 DEGREES
WAS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE RECORD OF 82 SET IN 1999...AND HOU`S
(HOUSTON HOBBY) HIGH OF 78 DEGREES WAS A DEGREE OFF THE RECORD OF 79
LAST SET IN 2000. AFTER AREAS OF MORNING FOG (SOME POSSIBLY DENSE)...
EXPECT TO SEE WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY (TODAY`S RECORD TEMPS INCLUDE
84 AT IAH SET IN 1922 AND 82 AT HOU SET IN 1962). A WEAK FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL HELP TO
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL EARLY TO MID FEBRUARY READINGS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFF TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY TO ALLOW FOR VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA...
BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES COME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A NORTH
TEXAS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. SEVERAL DRY DAYS WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.  42
&&

.MARINE...
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE
DAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN U.S. AND
INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CREATE EASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY...VEERING
MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY. THE ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MORE MODERATE WEEKEND WIND SPEEDS...PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RESPONDING WEEKEND SEAS WILL LIFT FROM
TONIGHT`S NEAR 2 FOOT HEIGHTS TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PASSAGE MONDAY WILL INCREASE
(PRIMARILY EASTERN WATER) SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. 31

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE BACK IN 1899...GALVESTON RECORDED ITS ALL-TIME RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 8 DEGREES. THE ISLAND SAW SOME RELIEF THE NEXT
DAY WHEN THE LOW ONLY GOT DOWN TO 10 DEGREES.

42
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  48  65  49  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  50  66  48  69 /   0   0  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  55  62  54  66 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KFWD 120820
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
220 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONTAL THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING 5 OR SO DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY...RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. WITH MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION THE HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
IN MORE OF THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE TROUGHING AND THE RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO
THE REGION. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER...WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S.

78.JG

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1132 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
/6Z TAFS/

NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KT BY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LGT/VAR WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT WACO BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DUNN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  40  59  48  65 /   0   0   0   5  20
WACO, TX              71  40  64  48  69 /   0   0   0  10  20
PARIS, TX             65  36  52  38  54 /   0   0   0   5  20
DENTON, TX            67  36  58  46  64 /   0   0   0   5  20
MCKINNEY, TX          66  38  56  44  62 /   0   0   0   5  20
DALLAS, TX            67  42  58  48  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
TERRELL, TX           68  40  58  45  62 /   0   0   0   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         70  43  61  48  66 /   0   5   0  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            72  42  65  50  70 /   0   5   0  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  36  61  47  69 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

/78




000
FXUS64 KHGX 120545
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1145 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF BASED ON LATEST DATA.
FOG DEVELOPMENT STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE TERMINALS... ALTHOUGH 00Z
GUIDANCE VISIBILITIES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN IFR INLAND
LIKELY OWING TO THE SHALLOW/LIMITED DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND MIXING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
PER KHGX VAD WIND PROFILER. STILL CARRYING MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR
INLAND SITES GENERALLY 11-15Z... BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE
TEMPORARY DIPS TO IFR WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.

EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR 15-16Z WITH SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A
DISTURBANCE SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO A STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TO BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TO THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z AT COLLEGE STATION/HUNTSVILLE AND
AFTER 00Z FOR THE HOUSTON TERMINALS. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL ALONG
OR JUST NORTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT... RAISING CONCERNS FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN FOR GALVESTON AND POSSIBLY ANGLETON BUT NOT
INCLUDING ANY CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS ATTM.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDING SHOWING THE LL MOISTURE WORKING IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE REGION AS OF 00Z. AS WINDS RELAX AND
MOISTURE INTRUDES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND PERHAPS NORTH
IF/AS WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATION FOG. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF
FOG TO THE SOUTH AND DELAYED THE ONSET ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL
AROUND 2 AM. ACROSS THE SOUTH IT MAY START CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
INLAND AND THEN SHORTLY AFTER FOR SEA FOG. STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT
HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET BUT MANY OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. CAN`T RULE OUT THE FORMATION OF DENSE
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON IT.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      51  74  48  67  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  77  50  68  48 /   0  10   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  71  55  64  54 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14




000
FXUS64 KFWD 120532 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1132 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KT BY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LGT/VAR WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT WACO BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH OF I-20 CURRENTLY.
THE FRONT WILL NOT PICK UP FORWARD SPEED UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...AS
IT GETS SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND STRONGER CAA
SUPPORT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RUC/LAV DATA SEEMS TO BE HANDING
THE DEW PTS...TEMPS AND FRONTAL MOVEMENT THE BEST. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW PTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES COULD LEND TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING. SUPER SATURATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE...AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY DENSE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...CAA THAT WAS DELAYED DOES ARRIVE FINALLY TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED 70 DEGREE READING
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A
LITTLE CHILLY BY LATE MORNING.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD SINCE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
REGION. AS OF 2PM WACO HAS RECORDED A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 81
DEGREES...WHICH WILL TIE THEIR RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS WILL PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. RETURN FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. A DEVELOPING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
THIS LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. INSTABILITY LOOKS
RATHER MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE PULLED MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR EAST COUNTIES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND A SLOW RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 99



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  66  39  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              42  69  39  64  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             38  63  35  52  37 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            38  65  35  57  44 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          38  65  37  55  42 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            43  65  41  58  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           41  67  39  57  43 /   0   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  68  42  61  46 /   0   0   5   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            45  70  41  65  49 /   0   0   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  68  35  61  45 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 120532 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1132 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/6Z TAFS/

NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KT BY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LGT/VAR WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT WACO BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH OF I-20 CURRENTLY.
THE FRONT WILL NOT PICK UP FORWARD SPEED UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...AS
IT GETS SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND STRONGER CAA
SUPPORT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RUC/LAV DATA SEEMS TO BE HANDING
THE DEW PTS...TEMPS AND FRONTAL MOVEMENT THE BEST. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW PTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES COULD LEND TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING. SUPER SATURATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE...AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY DENSE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...CAA THAT WAS DELAYED DOES ARRIVE FINALLY TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED 70 DEGREE READING
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A
LITTLE CHILLY BY LATE MORNING.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD SINCE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
REGION. AS OF 2PM WACO HAS RECORDED A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 81
DEGREES...WHICH WILL TIE THEIR RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS WILL PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. RETURN FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. A DEVELOPING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
THIS LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. INSTABILITY LOOKS
RATHER MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE PULLED MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR EAST COUNTIES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND A SLOW RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 99



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  66  39  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              42  69  39  64  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             38  63  35  52  37 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            38  65  35  57  44 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          38  65  37  55  42 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            43  65  41  58  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           41  67  39  57  43 /   0   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  68  42  61  46 /   0   0   5   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            45  70  41  65  49 /   0   0   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  68  35  61  45 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLUB 120523
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1123 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHER OVERNIGHT
COURTESY OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...AND VEER FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON /AT 7-10 KTS/.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
NOTHING MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...THEN BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS
AREA. JUST ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT TO OFFSET A MODEST
INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS WITH HIGH TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO TODAY/S AND
ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...
WINDS WILL START OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THANKS
TO A PREVIOUSLY PASSED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A STOUT SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PATCHY FOG. THE SAME
COULD BE SAID ABOUT SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
DUE TO SURFACE WINDS TAPPING GULF MOISTURE AND TRANSPORTING IT TO
THE REGION. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. AS OF NOW DENSE FOG DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMIT OF MOISTURE INFLUX BUT STRANGER THINGS
HAVE HAPPENED. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RID THE FA OF MOISTURE AND BRING WITH IT A
SHORT DURATION OF GUSTY WINDS. DESPITE SURFACE MOISTURE BEING IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL DRAG BEHIND THE FRONT
THUS PROVIDING NO PRECIP NOT TO MENTION THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE FRONT EVEN THINKS ABOUT
GIVING US A VISIT. A SECONDARY FRONT IS SHOW TO PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH SOME VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH BY THE MODELS. THE GFS
GOES GANG BUSTERS WITH THE FRONT AND BRINGS SUB-ADVISORY TO ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS A BIT QUIETER WITH
SUB-10KT WINDS FOR NOW WINDS WILL BE KEPT STRONGER THAN BLENDED
GUIDANCE BUT BELOW 20KTS FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO THE SUDDEN CHANGE
PRESENTED BY THE GFS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE RIDGES TO THE LEFT TROFS TO THE
RIGHT AND ME STUCK IN THE MIDDLE WITH YOU AND FAIRLY BENIGN AND WARM
WEATHER. A FAIRLY DEEP LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP STRETCHING FROM LOWER
ALBERTA PROVINCE TO THE BIG BEND REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 20KTS. THIS...ALONG WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...WILL WARM
TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LATE NEXT WEEK. ALDRICH

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KBRO 120510 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1110 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO NEAR CALM WINDS.
HOWEVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINAL SITES
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO NEAR CALM
WINDS. HOWEVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINAL
SITES IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE
KEEPING DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NEAR THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TOWARDS WEST TEXAS INTERACTING WITH
BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING AND DECREASING TO 10 MPH BY
MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND THE RGV REGION WHILE COUNTIES
WESTWARD WINDS WILL REMAIN A LOT LIGHTER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHTER WINDS AND MOISTURE
CONTENT NEAR THE SURFACE WITH CLEAR SKIES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND WESTERN COUNTIES
INCLUDING STARR AND WEST OF HIDALGO COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH SE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST BUT STILL REMAINS VERY LIMITED. A FEW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ITS
CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. SUNDAY BEFORE A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA MON NIGHT. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING WARM
TEMPS TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS WITH SCEC THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 3 FEET OR
LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55



000
FXUS64 KBRO 120510 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1110 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO NEAR CALM WINDS.
HOWEVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINAL SITES
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO NEAR CALM
WINDS. HOWEVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINAL
SITES IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE
KEEPING DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NEAR THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TOWARDS WEST TEXAS INTERACTING WITH
BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING AND DECREASING TO 10 MPH BY
MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND THE RGV REGION WHILE COUNTIES
WESTWARD WINDS WILL REMAIN A LOT LIGHTER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHTER WINDS AND MOISTURE
CONTENT NEAR THE SURFACE WITH CLEAR SKIES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND WESTERN COUNTIES
INCLUDING STARR AND WEST OF HIDALGO COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH SE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST BUT STILL REMAINS VERY LIMITED. A FEW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ITS
CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. SUNDAY BEFORE A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA MON NIGHT. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING WARM
TEMPS TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS WITH SCEC THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 3 FEET OR
LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55




000
FXUS64 KBRO 120510 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1110 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO NEAR CALM WINDS.
HOWEVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINAL SITES
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO NEAR CALM
WINDS. HOWEVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINAL
SITES IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE
KEEPING DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NEAR THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TOWARDS WEST TEXAS INTERACTING WITH
BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING AND DECREASING TO 10 MPH BY
MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND THE RGV REGION WHILE COUNTIES
WESTWARD WINDS WILL REMAIN A LOT LIGHTER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHTER WINDS AND MOISTURE
CONTENT NEAR THE SURFACE WITH CLEAR SKIES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND WESTERN COUNTIES
INCLUDING STARR AND WEST OF HIDALGO COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH SE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST BUT STILL REMAINS VERY LIMITED. A FEW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ITS
CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. SUNDAY BEFORE A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA MON NIGHT. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING WARM
TEMPS TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS WITH SCEC THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 3 FEET OR
LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55




000
FXUS64 KEWX 120508
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1108 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/

VFR SKIES MAY BE THREATENED BY SOME INVADING MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL PRAIRIES...AND THE DEW POINT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
SOME FOG...POSSIBLY AN LIFR OR LOWER CIG COULD FORM OVER THE I-35
TERMINALS AT DAYBREAK. THE TAF CONDITIONS ARE KEPT CONSERVATIVE IN
CASE THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DRIVE A LOW
STRATUS LAYER INTO THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT PARTIALLY CLEARS OUT THE
MOISTURE OVER THE TAF SITES LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ITS
INFLUENCE. VFR SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE 24 HOUR
TAFS...BUT THE 30 HOUR TAF WINDOWS AT AUS/SAT COULD BE IMPACTED BY
SIMILAR CLOUD LAYERS. WILL DEFER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD LAYERS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL INVERSION AT LEAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. DRY AIR ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF I-35. FINALLY...WE
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER
ALIGN WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE DEPICTING FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. RECENT WEATHER GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY). PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO LOWER 80S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHALLOW COOLER
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID 70S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH CLIMATE NORMALS TO THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
MEDIAN MOVING AVERAGE (0.81 INCHES SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 AND MONDAY
FEBRUARY 15).

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  77  47  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  76  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  78  45  70  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            46  74  44  66  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  83  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  74  43  67  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  82  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  76  45  69  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   52  77  48  68  50 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  79  47  69  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  80  48  72  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33



000
FXUS64 KEWX 120508
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1108 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/

VFR SKIES MAY BE THREATENED BY SOME INVADING MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL PRAIRIES...AND THE DEW POINT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
SOME FOG...POSSIBLY AN LIFR OR LOWER CIG COULD FORM OVER THE I-35
TERMINALS AT DAYBREAK. THE TAF CONDITIONS ARE KEPT CONSERVATIVE IN
CASE THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DRIVE A LOW
STRATUS LAYER INTO THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT PARTIALLY CLEARS OUT THE
MOISTURE OVER THE TAF SITES LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ITS
INFLUENCE. VFR SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE 24 HOUR
TAFS...BUT THE 30 HOUR TAF WINDOWS AT AUS/SAT COULD BE IMPACTED BY
SIMILAR CLOUD LAYERS. WILL DEFER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD LAYERS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL INVERSION AT LEAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. DRY AIR ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF I-35. FINALLY...WE
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER
ALIGN WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE DEPICTING FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. RECENT WEATHER GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY). PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO LOWER 80S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHALLOW COOLER
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID 70S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH CLIMATE NORMALS TO THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
MEDIAN MOVING AVERAGE (0.81 INCHES SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 AND MONDAY
FEBRUARY 15).

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  77  47  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  76  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  78  45  70  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            46  74  44  66  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  83  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  74  43  67  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  82  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  76  45  69  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   52  77  48  68  50 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  79  47  69  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  80  48  72  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 120508
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1108 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/

VFR SKIES MAY BE THREATENED BY SOME INVADING MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL PRAIRIES...AND THE DEW POINT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
SOME FOG...POSSIBLY AN LIFR OR LOWER CIG COULD FORM OVER THE I-35
TERMINALS AT DAYBREAK. THE TAF CONDITIONS ARE KEPT CONSERVATIVE IN
CASE THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DRIVE A LOW
STRATUS LAYER INTO THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT PARTIALLY CLEARS OUT THE
MOISTURE OVER THE TAF SITES LATER IN THE MORNING...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ITS
INFLUENCE. VFR SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE 24 HOUR
TAFS...BUT THE 30 HOUR TAF WINDOWS AT AUS/SAT COULD BE IMPACTED BY
SIMILAR CLOUD LAYERS. WILL DEFER TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOUD LAYERS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL INVERSION AT LEAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. DRY AIR ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF I-35. FINALLY...WE
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER
ALIGN WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE DEPICTING FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. RECENT WEATHER GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY). PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO LOWER 80S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHALLOW COOLER
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID 70S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH CLIMATE NORMALS TO THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
MEDIAN MOVING AVERAGE (0.81 INCHES SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 AND MONDAY
FEBRUARY 15).

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  77  47  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  76  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  78  45  70  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            46  74  44  66  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  83  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  74  43  67  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  82  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  76  45  69  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   52  77  48  68  50 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  79  47  69  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  80  48  72  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KSJT 120500
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1100 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A few high clouds
are anticipated through tonight, with otherwise sunny skies across
west central TX. Winds will remain light and variable through
mid-morning, becoming northeast at 5-10 kts by midday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The surface front is located near a KSJT-KBBD line as of 23z and
is expected to sag slowly south overnight. However, wind speeds
will generally remain under 6 kts, becoming variable after sunset.
Northeast winds will increase to 6-8 kts by late morning Friday.
Other than a few high clouds this evening, skies will be mostly
clear through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with above normal
temperatures expected again on Friday. For tonight, clear skies,
light winds and a dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into
the 30s areawide by day break Friday. Northwest flow aloft will
remain over the Southern Plains through the short term period,
with a surface ridge building in from the north on Friday. This
will reinforce light northeasterly surface winds during the day,
with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big
Country, to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. Skies will remain
clear through the period.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Looks like the dry weather will continue through the long term
period. Also, temperatures will mainly be above normal, by as much
as 15 to 20 degrees for highs, especially middle of next week.
An upper level northwest to west-northwest flow pattern will
dominate through the next 7 days, with a ridge over the Southern
Plains by next Thursday. One decent upper level short wave will
move southeast(ECMWF most intense with this system) early next
week just east of our area. As a result, any chance of rain will
remain east of West Central Texas. As for temperatures, highs will
be mainly in the 70s, with some lower 80s on Wednesday and
Thursday. The coolest days will be Saturday and Monday, with 60s
across the Big Country. Lows will mainly be in the 40s, with a few
30s Friday night. Also, gusty to south to southwest winds Sunday,
then a weak cold front moves through Monday and possible gusty
north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  37  69  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  36  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  29  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson



000
FXUS64 KSJT 120500
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1100 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A few high clouds
are anticipated through tonight, with otherwise sunny skies across
west central TX. Winds will remain light and variable through
mid-morning, becoming northeast at 5-10 kts by midday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The surface front is located near a KSJT-KBBD line as of 23z and
is expected to sag slowly south overnight. However, wind speeds
will generally remain under 6 kts, becoming variable after sunset.
Northeast winds will increase to 6-8 kts by late morning Friday.
Other than a few high clouds this evening, skies will be mostly
clear through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with above normal
temperatures expected again on Friday. For tonight, clear skies,
light winds and a dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into
the 30s areawide by day break Friday. Northwest flow aloft will
remain over the Southern Plains through the short term period,
with a surface ridge building in from the north on Friday. This
will reinforce light northeasterly surface winds during the day,
with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big
Country, to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. Skies will remain
clear through the period.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Looks like the dry weather will continue through the long term
period. Also, temperatures will mainly be above normal, by as much
as 15 to 20 degrees for highs, especially middle of next week.
An upper level northwest to west-northwest flow pattern will
dominate through the next 7 days, with a ridge over the Southern
Plains by next Thursday. One decent upper level short wave will
move southeast(ECMWF most intense with this system) early next
week just east of our area. As a result, any chance of rain will
remain east of West Central Texas. As for temperatures, highs will
be mainly in the 70s, with some lower 80s on Wednesday and
Thursday. The coolest days will be Saturday and Monday, with 60s
across the Big Country. Lows will mainly be in the 40s, with a few
30s Friday night. Also, gusty to south to southwest winds Sunday,
then a weak cold front moves through Monday and possible gusty
north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  37  69  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  36  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  29  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson



000
FXUS64 KSJT 120500
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1100 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A few high clouds
are anticipated through tonight, with otherwise sunny skies across
west central TX. Winds will remain light and variable through
mid-morning, becoming northeast at 5-10 kts by midday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The surface front is located near a KSJT-KBBD line as of 23z and
is expected to sag slowly south overnight. However, wind speeds
will generally remain under 6 kts, becoming variable after sunset.
Northeast winds will increase to 6-8 kts by late morning Friday.
Other than a few high clouds this evening, skies will be mostly
clear through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with above normal
temperatures expected again on Friday. For tonight, clear skies,
light winds and a dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into
the 30s areawide by day break Friday. Northwest flow aloft will
remain over the Southern Plains through the short term period,
with a surface ridge building in from the north on Friday. This
will reinforce light northeasterly surface winds during the day,
with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big
Country, to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. Skies will remain
clear through the period.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Looks like the dry weather will continue through the long term
period. Also, temperatures will mainly be above normal, by as much
as 15 to 20 degrees for highs, especially middle of next week.
An upper level northwest to west-northwest flow pattern will
dominate through the next 7 days, with a ridge over the Southern
Plains by next Thursday. One decent upper level short wave will
move southeast(ECMWF most intense with this system) early next
week just east of our area. As a result, any chance of rain will
remain east of West Central Texas. As for temperatures, highs will
be mainly in the 70s, with some lower 80s on Wednesday and
Thursday. The coolest days will be Saturday and Monday, with 60s
across the Big Country. Lows will mainly be in the 40s, with a few
30s Friday night. Also, gusty to south to southwest winds Sunday,
then a weak cold front moves through Monday and possible gusty
north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  37  69  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  36  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  29  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson



000
FXUS64 KSJT 120500
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1100 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A few high clouds
are anticipated through tonight, with otherwise sunny skies across
west central TX. Winds will remain light and variable through
mid-morning, becoming northeast at 5-10 kts by midday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The surface front is located near a KSJT-KBBD line as of 23z and
is expected to sag slowly south overnight. However, wind speeds
will generally remain under 6 kts, becoming variable after sunset.
Northeast winds will increase to 6-8 kts by late morning Friday.
Other than a few high clouds this evening, skies will be mostly
clear through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with above normal
temperatures expected again on Friday. For tonight, clear skies,
light winds and a dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into
the 30s areawide by day break Friday. Northwest flow aloft will
remain over the Southern Plains through the short term period,
with a surface ridge building in from the north on Friday. This
will reinforce light northeasterly surface winds during the day,
with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big
Country, to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. Skies will remain
clear through the period.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Looks like the dry weather will continue through the long term
period. Also, temperatures will mainly be above normal, by as much
as 15 to 20 degrees for highs, especially middle of next week.
An upper level northwest to west-northwest flow pattern will
dominate through the next 7 days, with a ridge over the Southern
Plains by next Thursday. One decent upper level short wave will
move southeast(ECMWF most intense with this system) early next
week just east of our area. As a result, any chance of rain will
remain east of West Central Texas. As for temperatures, highs will
be mainly in the 70s, with some lower 80s on Wednesday and
Thursday. The coolest days will be Saturday and Monday, with 60s
across the Big Country. Lows will mainly be in the 40s, with a few
30s Friday night. Also, gusty to south to southwest winds Sunday,
then a weak cold front moves through Monday and possible gusty
north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  37  69  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  36  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  29  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson



000
FXUS64 KSJT 120500
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1100 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A few high clouds
are anticipated through tonight, with otherwise sunny skies across
west central TX. Winds will remain light and variable through
mid-morning, becoming northeast at 5-10 kts by midday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The surface front is located near a KSJT-KBBD line as of 23z and
is expected to sag slowly south overnight. However, wind speeds
will generally remain under 6 kts, becoming variable after sunset.
Northeast winds will increase to 6-8 kts by late morning Friday.
Other than a few high clouds this evening, skies will be mostly
clear through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with above normal
temperatures expected again on Friday. For tonight, clear skies,
light winds and a dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into
the 30s areawide by day break Friday. Northwest flow aloft will
remain over the Southern Plains through the short term period,
with a surface ridge building in from the north on Friday. This
will reinforce light northeasterly surface winds during the day,
with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big
Country, to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. Skies will remain
clear through the period.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Looks like the dry weather will continue through the long term
period. Also, temperatures will mainly be above normal, by as much
as 15 to 20 degrees for highs, especially middle of next week.
An upper level northwest to west-northwest flow pattern will
dominate through the next 7 days, with a ridge over the Southern
Plains by next Thursday. One decent upper level short wave will
move southeast(ECMWF most intense with this system) early next
week just east of our area. As a result, any chance of rain will
remain east of West Central Texas. As for temperatures, highs will
be mainly in the 70s, with some lower 80s on Wednesday and
Thursday. The coolest days will be Saturday and Monday, with 60s
across the Big Country. Lows will mainly be in the 40s, with a few
30s Friday night. Also, gusty to south to southwest winds Sunday,
then a weak cold front moves through Monday and possible gusty
north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  37  69  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  36  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  29  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson




000
FXUS64 KCRP 120455 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1055 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS. MODELS STILL
SUGGEST PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. LIKELY
LOCATIONS OF ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS WOULD BE FROM ALI OVER TO VCT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AROUND 15Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
12 KNOTS. PATCHY FOG/BR COULD RETURN TO THE VCT TERMINAL TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT MENTION JUST YET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF DENSE FOG FROM ALICE TO VICTORIA BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THOUGH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE FORECAST YET BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL RANGE TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA TO 50S ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5PM AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NO OTHER CHANGES RIGHT NOW.

PLEASE SEE UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY ARE SUBSIDING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IS LOW AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
MENTION DENSE FOG IN TAFS JUST YET. FOG SHOULD THEN MIX OUT AROUND
15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS ON AVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...FLOW WILL TURN
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE TONIGHT SO LLVL MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE ON
THE INCREASE. AS WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT COULD SEE SOME FOG/LOW
CLOUDS INLAND SO HV CONTINUED MENTION. LOOKS LIKE THE GULF AIRMASS
PUSHING OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL CONTAIN MAINLY LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS - IN LINE WITH WATER TEMPS THERE THUS NOT EXPECTING
MARINE FOG ATTM. STILL VERY WARM ON FRIDAY WITH FULL SUN AND
LIGHTER SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR FAR
NORTH WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
TO NO CHANGE MADE TO PREV FCST TEMPS WHICH ARE GENERALLY 10-15 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WEAK BACK DOOR COOL
FRONT WILL SETTLE IN ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY BUT CAA MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
UNTIL TYPICAL MID MORNING TIME FRAME. ONSHORE WINDS QUICKLY RETURN
BY SAT AFTERNOON AS TROUGH DEVELOPS IN LEE OF ROCKIES ALLOWING TEMPS
TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. NEXT MID/UPR LVL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO TEXAS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY DRAWING GULF
MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND WHERE SKIES EXPECTED TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. S-SW WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL STILL MAINTAIN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST LATE MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS...PER PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO
LIMITED TO INCLUDE PRECIP. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND
DECREASE STEADILY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS OFF THE
GULF AS WELL SO OUR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE GONE
BY SUNSET. LIGHTER WINDS AND MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  80  53  76  58  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          53  77  51  74  54  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            53  85  55  81  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             50  83  51  79  56  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  69  56  70  59  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           48  84  51  80  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        53  81  52  76  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       60  71  57  71  60  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 120455 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1055 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS. MODELS STILL
SUGGEST PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. LIKELY
LOCATIONS OF ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS WOULD BE FROM ALI OVER TO VCT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AROUND 15Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
12 KNOTS. PATCHY FOG/BR COULD RETURN TO THE VCT TERMINAL TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT MENTION JUST YET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF DENSE FOG FROM ALICE TO VICTORIA BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THOUGH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE FORECAST YET BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL RANGE TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA TO 50S ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5PM AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NO OTHER CHANGES RIGHT NOW.

PLEASE SEE UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY ARE SUBSIDING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IS LOW AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
MENTION DENSE FOG IN TAFS JUST YET. FOG SHOULD THEN MIX OUT AROUND
15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS ON AVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...FLOW WILL TURN
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE TONIGHT SO LLVL MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE ON
THE INCREASE. AS WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT COULD SEE SOME FOG/LOW
CLOUDS INLAND SO HV CONTINUED MENTION. LOOKS LIKE THE GULF AIRMASS
PUSHING OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL CONTAIN MAINLY LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS - IN LINE WITH WATER TEMPS THERE THUS NOT EXPECTING
MARINE FOG ATTM. STILL VERY WARM ON FRIDAY WITH FULL SUN AND
LIGHTER SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR FAR
NORTH WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
TO NO CHANGE MADE TO PREV FCST TEMPS WHICH ARE GENERALLY 10-15 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WEAK BACK DOOR COOL
FRONT WILL SETTLE IN ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY BUT CAA MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
UNTIL TYPICAL MID MORNING TIME FRAME. ONSHORE WINDS QUICKLY RETURN
BY SAT AFTERNOON AS TROUGH DEVELOPS IN LEE OF ROCKIES ALLOWING TEMPS
TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. NEXT MID/UPR LVL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO TEXAS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY DRAWING GULF
MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND WHERE SKIES EXPECTED TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. S-SW WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL STILL MAINTAIN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST LATE MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS...PER PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO
LIMITED TO INCLUDE PRECIP. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND
DECREASE STEADILY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS OFF THE
GULF AS WELL SO OUR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE GONE
BY SUNSET. LIGHTER WINDS AND MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  80  53  76  58  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          53  77  51  74  54  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            53  85  55  81  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             50  83  51  79  56  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  69  56  70  59  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           48  84  51  80  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        53  81  52  76  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       60  71  57  71  60  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 120455 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1055 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS. MODELS STILL
SUGGEST PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. LIKELY
LOCATIONS OF ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS WOULD BE FROM ALI OVER TO VCT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AROUND 15Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
12 KNOTS. PATCHY FOG/BR COULD RETURN TO THE VCT TERMINAL TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT MENTION JUST YET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF DENSE FOG FROM ALICE TO VICTORIA BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THOUGH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE FORECAST YET BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL RANGE TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA TO 50S ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5PM AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NO OTHER CHANGES RIGHT NOW.

PLEASE SEE UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY ARE SUBSIDING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IS LOW AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
MENTION DENSE FOG IN TAFS JUST YET. FOG SHOULD THEN MIX OUT AROUND
15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS ON AVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...FLOW WILL TURN
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE TONIGHT SO LLVL MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE ON
THE INCREASE. AS WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT COULD SEE SOME FOG/LOW
CLOUDS INLAND SO HV CONTINUED MENTION. LOOKS LIKE THE GULF AIRMASS
PUSHING OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL CONTAIN MAINLY LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS - IN LINE WITH WATER TEMPS THERE THUS NOT EXPECTING
MARINE FOG ATTM. STILL VERY WARM ON FRIDAY WITH FULL SUN AND
LIGHTER SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR FAR
NORTH WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
TO NO CHANGE MADE TO PREV FCST TEMPS WHICH ARE GENERALLY 10-15 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WEAK BACK DOOR COOL
FRONT WILL SETTLE IN ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY BUT CAA MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
UNTIL TYPICAL MID MORNING TIME FRAME. ONSHORE WINDS QUICKLY RETURN
BY SAT AFTERNOON AS TROUGH DEVELOPS IN LEE OF ROCKIES ALLOWING TEMPS
TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. NEXT MID/UPR LVL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO TEXAS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY DRAWING GULF
MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND WHERE SKIES EXPECTED TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. S-SW WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL STILL MAINTAIN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST LATE MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS...PER PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO
LIMITED TO INCLUDE PRECIP. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND
DECREASE STEADILY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS OFF THE
GULF AS WELL SO OUR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE GONE
BY SUNSET. LIGHTER WINDS AND MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  80  53  76  58  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          53  77  51  74  54  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            53  85  55  81  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             50  83  51  79  56  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  69  56  70  59  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           48  84  51  80  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        53  81  52  76  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       60  71  57  71  60  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KMAF 120450
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1050 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions expected
at all terminals with light and variable winds in place through
Friday morning. Another weak front expected Friday afternoon/evening
with light NE winds in its wake. Otherwise, skies will remain clear.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 139 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Tranquil weather will continue across southeast New Mexico and
west Texas through the next seven days, with above normal
temperatures and no precipitation currently forecast.

The upper pattern continues to be dominated by a high amplitude
ridge over the western CONUS and a deep trough over the east,
maintaining dry northwesterly flow aloft over the region. A weak
cold front today has resulted in slightly cooler temperatures,
especially across northern portions of the forecast area. Highs
this afternoon still look on target to reach the upper 60s to
lower 70s north to the middle to upper 70s south, with lows
tonight expected to be in the 30s and 40s, though some upper 20s
are possible across the Marfa Plateau and southeast New Mexico.
Temperatures will warm a few degrees on Friday, but with
developing easterly surface flow in the wake of today`s front,
increased moisture will result in cooler temperatures Saturday in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Southerly flow will return Sunday,
resulting in slightly warmer temperatures, though the next cold
front is progged to move through the area on Monday. This front
will be similar to today`s, only noticeable due to a north wind
shift and temperatures about 5 to 7 degrees cooler than Sunday.
Winds quickly return to the southwest by Tuesday, marking the
start of another warming trend that will persist through midweek,
with high temperatures pushing 80 degrees possible by Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  72  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  72  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  79  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  75  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  67  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          32  71  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          26  73  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           35  73  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         37  72  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           32  75  38  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72/




000
FXUS64 KAMA 120428 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1028 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KGUY...AND SHOULD REACH KDHT AND
KAMA BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 06Z AND 08Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL START TO VEER MID MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KNOTS BUT COULD GUST UP
TO 20 KNOTS OR SO FOR A FEW HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LEFT OUT
MENTION AS THEY LOOK TO BE SHORT IN DURATION AND LOW IN INTENSITY.

LORENZEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FRIDAY MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND BY THE END OF THE DAY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STAY AROUND OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

LORENZEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH HAS PROVIDED
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE PANHANDLES AND TEMPS INTO THE 60S
AND EVEN SOME PLACES REACHING 70. UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK
FRONTS GO THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. THESE
ALL LOOK TO BE DRY BUT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
EACH OF THESE FRONTS. SUNDAY WILL SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH AS RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND BE OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND UP TO 80 BY THURSDAY...30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

BEAT

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIP INTO THE
TEENS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...THUS PREVENTING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. 20 FOOT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GET CLOSE TO 15
MPH SO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE BELOW 20.
THURSDAY WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP BELOW 20 FOR THE AREA AND BELOW 15 FOR THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES
AND 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 15 MPH...LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ERC VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THESE ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME
PARTS OF THE CRITICAL WILDFIRE OUTBREAK COMPOSITE AS COMING TOGETHER
FOR THURSDAY. THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE
COMPOSITE SHOWS BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER EAST. THE 500 MB JET
IS ALIGNED CORRECTLY AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW CLOSELY PACKED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO KANSAS. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER THOUGH SO STAY TUNED.

BEAT

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/15




000
FXUS64 KAMA 120428 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1028 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KGUY...AND SHOULD REACH KDHT AND
KAMA BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 06Z AND 08Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL START TO VEER MID MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KNOTS BUT COULD GUST UP
TO 20 KNOTS OR SO FOR A FEW HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LEFT OUT
MENTION AS THEY LOOK TO BE SHORT IN DURATION AND LOW IN INTENSITY.

LORENZEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FRIDAY MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND BY THE END OF THE DAY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STAY AROUND OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

LORENZEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH HAS PROVIDED
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE PANHANDLES AND TEMPS INTO THE 60S
AND EVEN SOME PLACES REACHING 70. UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK
FRONTS GO THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. THESE
ALL LOOK TO BE DRY BUT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
EACH OF THESE FRONTS. SUNDAY WILL SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH AS RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND BE OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND UP TO 80 BY THURSDAY...30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

BEAT

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIP INTO THE
TEENS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...THUS PREVENTING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. 20 FOOT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GET CLOSE TO 15
MPH SO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE BELOW 20.
THURSDAY WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP BELOW 20 FOR THE AREA AND BELOW 15 FOR THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES
AND 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 15 MPH...LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ERC VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THESE ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME
PARTS OF THE CRITICAL WILDFIRE OUTBREAK COMPOSITE AS COMING TOGETHER
FOR THURSDAY. THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE
COMPOSITE SHOWS BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER EAST. THE 500 MB JET
IS ALIGNED CORRECTLY AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW CLOSELY PACKED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO KANSAS. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER THOUGH SO STAY TUNED.

BEAT

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/15




000
FXUS64 KAMA 120428 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1028 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KGUY...AND SHOULD REACH KDHT AND
KAMA BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 06Z AND 08Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL START TO VEER MID MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KNOTS BUT COULD GUST UP
TO 20 KNOTS OR SO FOR A FEW HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LEFT OUT
MENTION AS THEY LOOK TO BE SHORT IN DURATION AND LOW IN INTENSITY.

LORENZEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FRIDAY MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND BY THE END OF THE DAY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STAY AROUND OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

LORENZEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH HAS PROVIDED
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE PANHANDLES AND TEMPS INTO THE 60S
AND EVEN SOME PLACES REACHING 70. UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK
FRONTS GO THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. THESE
ALL LOOK TO BE DRY BUT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
EACH OF THESE FRONTS. SUNDAY WILL SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH AS RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND BE OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND UP TO 80 BY THURSDAY...30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

BEAT

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIP INTO THE
TEENS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...THUS PREVENTING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. 20 FOOT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GET CLOSE TO 15
MPH SO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE BELOW 20.
THURSDAY WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP BELOW 20 FOR THE AREA AND BELOW 15 FOR THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES
AND 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 15 MPH...LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ERC VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THESE ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME
PARTS OF THE CRITICAL WILDFIRE OUTBREAK COMPOSITE AS COMING TOGETHER
FOR THURSDAY. THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE
COMPOSITE SHOWS BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER EAST. THE 500 MB JET
IS ALIGNED CORRECTLY AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW CLOSELY PACKED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO KANSAS. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER THOUGH SO STAY TUNED.

BEAT

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/15



000
FXUS64 KCRP 120342 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
942 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF DENSE FOG FROM ALICE TO VICTORIA BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THOUGH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE FORECAST YET BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL RANGE TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA TO 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5PM AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NO OTHER CHANGES RIGHT NOW.

PLEASE SEE UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY ARE SUBSIDING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IS LOW AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
MENTION DENSE FOG IN TAFS JUST YET. FOG SHOULD THEN MIX OUT
AROUND 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 12
KNOTS ON AVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...FLOW WILL TURN
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE TONIGHT SO LLVL MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE ON
THE INCREASE. AS WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT COULD SEE SOME FOG/LOW
CLOUDS INLAND SO HV CONTINUED MENTION. LOOKS LIKE THE GULF AIRMASS
PUSHING OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL CONTAIN MAINLY LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS - IN LINE WITH WATER TEMPS THERE THUS NOT EXPECTING
MARINE FOG ATTM. STILL VERY WARM ON FRIDAY WITH FULL SUN AND
LIGHTER SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR FAR
NORTH WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
TO NO CHANGE MADE TO PREV FCST TEMPS WHICH ARE GENERALLY 10-15 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WEAK BACK DOOR COOL
FRONT WILL SETTLE IN ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY BUT CAA MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
UNTIL TYPICAL MID MORNING TIME FRAME. ONSHORE WINDS QUICKLY RETURN
BY SAT AFTERNOON AS TROUGH DEVELOPS IN LEE OF ROCKIES ALLOWING TEMPS
TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. NEXT MID/UPR LVL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO TEXAS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY DRAWING GULF
MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND WHERE SKIES EXPECTED TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. S-SW WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL STILL MAINTAIN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST LATE MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS...PER PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO
LIMITED TO INCLUDE PRECIP. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND
DECREASE STEADILY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS OFF THE
GULF AS WELL SO OUR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE GONE
BY SUNSET. LIGHTER WINDS AND MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  80  53  76  58  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          53  77  51  74  54  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            53  85  55  81  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             50  83  51  79  56  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  69  56  70  59  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           48  84  51  80  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        53  81  52  76  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       60  71  57  71  60  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

XX/99...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 120342 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
942 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF DENSE FOG FROM ALICE TO VICTORIA BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THOUGH. WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE FORECAST YET BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL RANGE TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA TO 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5PM AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NO OTHER CHANGES RIGHT NOW.

PLEASE SEE UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY ARE SUBSIDING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IS LOW AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
MENTION DENSE FOG IN TAFS JUST YET. FOG SHOULD THEN MIX OUT
AROUND 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 12
KNOTS ON AVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...FLOW WILL TURN
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE TONIGHT SO LLVL MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE ON
THE INCREASE. AS WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT COULD SEE SOME FOG/LOW
CLOUDS INLAND SO HV CONTINUED MENTION. LOOKS LIKE THE GULF AIRMASS
PUSHING OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL CONTAIN MAINLY LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS - IN LINE WITH WATER TEMPS THERE THUS NOT EXPECTING
MARINE FOG ATTM. STILL VERY WARM ON FRIDAY WITH FULL SUN AND
LIGHTER SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR FAR
NORTH WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
TO NO CHANGE MADE TO PREV FCST TEMPS WHICH ARE GENERALLY 10-15 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WEAK BACK DOOR COOL
FRONT WILL SETTLE IN ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY BUT CAA MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
UNTIL TYPICAL MID MORNING TIME FRAME. ONSHORE WINDS QUICKLY RETURN
BY SAT AFTERNOON AS TROUGH DEVELOPS IN LEE OF ROCKIES ALLOWING TEMPS
TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. NEXT MID/UPR LVL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO TEXAS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY DRAWING GULF
MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND WHERE SKIES EXPECTED TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. S-SW WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL STILL MAINTAIN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST LATE MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS...PER PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO
LIMITED TO INCLUDE PRECIP. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND
DECREASE STEADILY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS OFF THE
GULF AS WELL SO OUR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE GONE
BY SUNSET. LIGHTER WINDS AND MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  80  53  76  58  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          53  77  51  74  54  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            53  85  55  81  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             50  83  51  79  56  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  69  56  70  59  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           48  84  51  80  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        53  81  52  76  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       60  71  57  71  60  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

XX/99...SHORT TERM




000
FXUS64 KEWX 120316
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
916 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. DRY AIR ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF I-35. FINALLY...WE
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BETTER
ALIGN WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS DESPITE A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO PARTS OF THE
SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA AT DAYBREAK...BUT PARTS OF THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS COULD SEE THE FOG LAST LONGER AND
LIFT INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE MORNING.
ALL SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN BY AROUND 17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE DEPICTING FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. RECENT WEATHER GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY). PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO LOWER 80S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHALLOW COOLER
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID 70S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH CLIMATE NORMALS TO THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
MEDIAN MOVING AVERAGE (0.81 INCHES SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 AND MONDAY
FEBRUARY 15).

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  77  47  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  76  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     45  78  45  70  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            46  74  44  66  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  83  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  74  43  67  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  82  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  76  45  69  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   52  77  48  68  50 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  79  47  69  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  80  48  72  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KFWD 120257 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
857 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH OF I-20 CURRENTLY.
THE FRONT WILL NOT PICK UP FORWARD SPEED UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...AS
IT GETS SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND STRONGER CAA
SUPPORT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RUC/LAV DATA SEEMS TO BE HANDING
THE DEW PTS...TEMPS AND FRONTAL MOVEMENT THE BEST. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW PTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES COULD LEND TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING. SUPER SATURATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE...AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY DENSE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...CAA THAT WAS DELAYED DOES ARRIVE FINALLY TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED 70 DEGREE READING
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A
LITTLE CHILLY BY LATE MORNING.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 536 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR AVIATION
CONCERNS EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AT WACO...SOUTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.

DUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD SINCE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
REGION. AS OF 2PM WACO HAS RECORDED A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 81
DEGREES...WHICH WILL TIE THEIR RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS WILL PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. RETURN FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. A DEVELOPING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
THIS LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. INSTABILITY LOOKS
RATHER MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE PULLED MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR EAST COUNTIES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND A SLOW RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 99



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  66  39  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              42  69  39  64  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             38  63  35  52  37 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            38  65  35  57  44 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          38  65  37  55  42 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            43  65  41  58  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           41  67  39  57  43 /   0   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  68  42  61  46 /   0   0   5   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            45  70  41  65  49 /   0   0   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  68  35  61  45 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/05




000
FXUS64 KFWD 120257 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
857 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH OF I-20 CURRENTLY.
THE FRONT WILL NOT PICK UP FORWARD SPEED UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...AS
IT GETS SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND STRONGER CAA
SUPPORT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. RUC/LAV DATA SEEMS TO BE HANDING
THE DEW PTS...TEMPS AND FRONTAL MOVEMENT THE BEST. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW PTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES COULD LEND TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING. SUPER SATURATION DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE...AND THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY DENSE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...CAA THAT WAS DELAYED DOES ARRIVE FINALLY TOMORROW WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED 70 DEGREE READING
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A
LITTLE CHILLY BY LATE MORNING.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 536 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR AVIATION
CONCERNS EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AT WACO...SOUTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.

DUNN


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD SINCE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
REGION. AS OF 2PM WACO HAS RECORDED A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 81
DEGREES...WHICH WILL TIE THEIR RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS WILL PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. RETURN FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. A DEVELOPING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
THIS LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. INSTABILITY LOOKS
RATHER MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE PULLED MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR EAST COUNTIES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND A SLOW RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 99



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  66  39  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              42  69  39  64  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             38  63  35  52  37 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            38  65  35  57  44 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          38  65  37  55  42 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            43  65  41  58  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           41  67  39  57  43 /   0   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  68  42  61  46 /   0   0   5   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            45  70  41  65  49 /   0   0   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  68  35  61  45 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/05



000
FXUS64 KHGX 120102
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
702 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDING SHOWING THE LL MOISTURE WORKING IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE REGION AS OF 00Z. AS WINDS RELAX AND
MOISTURE INTRUDES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND PERHAPS NORTH
IF/AS WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATION FOG. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF
FOG TO THE SOUTH AND DELAYED THE ONSET ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL
AROUND 2 AM. ACROSS THE SOUTH IT MAY START CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
INLAND AND THEN SHORTLY AFTER FOR SEA FOG. STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT
HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET BUT MANY OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. CAN`T RULE OUT THE FORMATION OF DENSE
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON IT.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS CENTER AROUND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG NEAR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT... CREATING AT
LEAST TEMPORARY IFR TO MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRIDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS GENERALLY
THROUGH 06Z... WITH RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF/ POOLING
AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
ANTICIPATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
IN PLACE... BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH AREAS WILL SEE THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAINING AT LEAST
25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THINK ENOUGH
MIXING WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR WITH THESE WINDS TO INHIBIT MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT TRENDS IN PREVIOUS TAF THE
SAME WITH AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT /AND IFR TO MVFR
RESTRICTIONS/ BEGINNING AROUND 09Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 15-16Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A DISTURBANCE SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TO THE TERMINALS
AROUND 18 TO 21Z AT COLLEGE STATION/HUNTSVILLE AND AFTER 00Z FOR
THE HOUSTON TERMINALS.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK...ALTHOUGH
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER SE TEXAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. A FAIRLY LARGE
CAP WILL BE IN PLACE BUT SHOULD ERODE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUM ON
MONDAY.

WITH THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE ON THE RISE...AS SEEN BY INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE GUIDANCE
ARE ALL SHOWING THE BEST TIME PERIOD TO BE FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THE FOG LIFTING BY MID MORNING. IF SEA FOG
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ONSHORE...THE FOG MAY LINGER OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS LONGER. CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS CONDUCIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES. A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY
SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IF THE WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST THAN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...COULD ONCE AGAIN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 80.
HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY WIND. SOME COOLING IS
EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN STARTING ON
TUESDAY. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE FAR INLAND AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

40

MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS
BUT WILL PROBABLY TAKE A BIT LONGER FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL
MAINTAIN CAUTION FLAGS FOR NOW. SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WARMER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH STRENGTHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE
COAST SOMETIME ON MONDAY. 47

FIRE...
MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MODERATE ON FRIDAY. VALUES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 30-45%
NW OF HIGHWAY 59 ON FRIDAY AND 45-65% FURTHER SE. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THEY WERE TODAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY THE GUSTINESS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      51  74  48  67  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  77  50  68  48 /   0  10   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  71  55  64  54 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KHGX 120102
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
702 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDING SHOWING THE LL MOISTURE WORKING IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE REGION AS OF 00Z. AS WINDS RELAX AND
MOISTURE INTRUDES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND PERHAPS NORTH
IF/AS WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATION FOG. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF
FOG TO THE SOUTH AND DELAYED THE ONSET ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL
AROUND 2 AM. ACROSS THE SOUTH IT MAY START CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
INLAND AND THEN SHORTLY AFTER FOR SEA FOG. STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT
HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET BUT MANY OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. CAN`T RULE OUT THE FORMATION OF DENSE
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON IT.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS CENTER AROUND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG NEAR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT... CREATING AT
LEAST TEMPORARY IFR TO MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRIDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS GENERALLY
THROUGH 06Z... WITH RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF/ POOLING
AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
ANTICIPATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
IN PLACE... BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH AREAS WILL SEE THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAINING AT LEAST
25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THINK ENOUGH
MIXING WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR WITH THESE WINDS TO INHIBIT MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT TRENDS IN PREVIOUS TAF THE
SAME WITH AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT /AND IFR TO MVFR
RESTRICTIONS/ BEGINNING AROUND 09Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 15-16Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A DISTURBANCE SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TO THE TERMINALS
AROUND 18 TO 21Z AT COLLEGE STATION/HUNTSVILLE AND AFTER 00Z FOR
THE HOUSTON TERMINALS.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK...ALTHOUGH
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER SE TEXAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. A FAIRLY LARGE
CAP WILL BE IN PLACE BUT SHOULD ERODE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUM ON
MONDAY.

WITH THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE ON THE RISE...AS SEEN BY INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE GUIDANCE
ARE ALL SHOWING THE BEST TIME PERIOD TO BE FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THE FOG LIFTING BY MID MORNING. IF SEA FOG
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ONSHORE...THE FOG MAY LINGER OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS LONGER. CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS CONDUCIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES. A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY
SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IF THE WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST THAN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...COULD ONCE AGAIN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 80.
HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY WIND. SOME COOLING IS
EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN STARTING ON
TUESDAY. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE FAR INLAND AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

40

MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS
BUT WILL PROBABLY TAKE A BIT LONGER FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL
MAINTAIN CAUTION FLAGS FOR NOW. SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WARMER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH STRENGTHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE
COAST SOMETIME ON MONDAY. 47

FIRE...
MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MODERATE ON FRIDAY. VALUES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 30-45%
NW OF HIGHWAY 59 ON FRIDAY AND 45-65% FURTHER SE. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THEY WERE TODAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY THE GUSTINESS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      51  74  48  67  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  77  50  68  48 /   0  10   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  71  55  64  54 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45



000
FXUS64 KHGX 120102
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
702 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDING SHOWING THE LL MOISTURE WORKING IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE REGION AS OF 00Z. AS WINDS RELAX AND
MOISTURE INTRUDES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST AND PERHAPS NORTH
IF/AS WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATION FOG. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF
FOG TO THE SOUTH AND DELAYED THE ONSET ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL
AROUND 2 AM. ACROSS THE SOUTH IT MAY START CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT
INLAND AND THEN SHORTLY AFTER FOR SEA FOG. STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT
HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET BUT MANY OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN
PLACE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. CAN`T RULE OUT THE FORMATION OF DENSE
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON IT.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS CENTER AROUND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG NEAR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT... CREATING AT
LEAST TEMPORARY IFR TO MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRIDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS GENERALLY
THROUGH 06Z... WITH RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF/ POOLING
AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
ANTICIPATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
IN PLACE... BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH AREAS WILL SEE THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAINING AT LEAST
25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THINK ENOUGH
MIXING WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR WITH THESE WINDS TO INHIBIT MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT TRENDS IN PREVIOUS TAF THE
SAME WITH AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT /AND IFR TO MVFR
RESTRICTIONS/ BEGINNING AROUND 09Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 15-16Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A DISTURBANCE SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TO THE TERMINALS
AROUND 18 TO 21Z AT COLLEGE STATION/HUNTSVILLE AND AFTER 00Z FOR
THE HOUSTON TERMINALS.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK...ALTHOUGH
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER SE TEXAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. A FAIRLY LARGE
CAP WILL BE IN PLACE BUT SHOULD ERODE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUM ON
MONDAY.

WITH THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE ON THE RISE...AS SEEN BY INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE GUIDANCE
ARE ALL SHOWING THE BEST TIME PERIOD TO BE FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THE FOG LIFTING BY MID MORNING. IF SEA FOG
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ONSHORE...THE FOG MAY LINGER OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS LONGER. CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS CONDUCIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES. A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY
SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IF THE WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST THAN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...COULD ONCE AGAIN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 80.
HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY WIND. SOME COOLING IS
EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN STARTING ON
TUESDAY. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE FAR INLAND AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

40

MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS
BUT WILL PROBABLY TAKE A BIT LONGER FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL
MAINTAIN CAUTION FLAGS FOR NOW. SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WARMER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH STRENGTHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE
COAST SOMETIME ON MONDAY. 47

FIRE...
MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MODERATE ON FRIDAY. VALUES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 30-45%
NW OF HIGHWAY 59 ON FRIDAY AND 45-65% FURTHER SE. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THEY WERE TODAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY THE GUSTINESS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      51  74  48  67  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  77  50  68  48 /   0  10   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  71  55  64  54 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KEWX 112359
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
559 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS DESPITE A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO PARTS OF THE
SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA AT DAYBREAK...BUT PARTS OF THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS COULD SEE THE FOG LAST LONGER AND
LIFT INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE MORNING.
ALL SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN BY AROUND 17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE DEPICTING FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. RECENT WEATHER GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY). PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO LOWER 80S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHALLOW COOLER
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID 70S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH CLIMATE NORMALS TO THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
MEDIAN MOVING AVERAGE (0.81 INCHES SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 AND MONDAY
FEBRUARY 15).

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  77  47  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  76  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  78  45  70  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            46  74  44  66  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  83  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  74  43  67  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  82  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  76  45  69  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   52  77  48  68  50 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  79  47  69  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           46  80  48  72  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 112359
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
559 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS DESPITE A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO PARTS OF THE
SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA AT DAYBREAK...BUT PARTS OF THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS COULD SEE THE FOG LAST LONGER AND
LIFT INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE MORNING.
ALL SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN BY AROUND 17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE DEPICTING FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. RECENT WEATHER GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY). PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO LOWER 80S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHALLOW COOLER
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID 70S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH CLIMATE NORMALS TO THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
MEDIAN MOVING AVERAGE (0.81 INCHES SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 AND MONDAY
FEBRUARY 15).

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  77  47  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  76  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  78  45  70  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            46  74  44  66  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  83  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  74  43  67  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  82  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  76  45  69  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   52  77  48  68  50 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  79  47  69  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           46  80  48  72  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




000
FXUS64 KEWX 112359
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
559 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS DESPITE A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO PARTS OF THE
SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA AT DAYBREAK...BUT PARTS OF THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS COULD SEE THE FOG LAST LONGER AND
LIFT INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE LATE MORNING.
ALL SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN BY AROUND 17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE DEPICTING FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. RECENT WEATHER GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS (NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY). PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. NO RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO LOWER 80S ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHALLOW COOLER
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE...SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID 70S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH CLIMATE NORMALS TO THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE...THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
MEDIAN MOVING AVERAGE (0.81 INCHES SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 AND MONDAY
FEBRUARY 15).

DRY AND WARMER WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  77  47  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  43  76  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  78  45  70  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            46  74  44  66  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           45  83  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        46  74  43  67  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  82  44  73  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        44  76  45  69  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   52  77  48  68  50 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       47  79  47  69  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           46  80  48  72  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33



000
FXUS64 KBRO 112356 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
556 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO NEAR CALM
WINDS. HOWEVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINAL
SITES IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE
KEEPING DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NEAR THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TOWARDS WEST TEXAS INTERACTING WITH
BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING AND DECREASING TO 10 MPH BY
MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND THE RGV REGION WHILE COUNTIES
WESTWARD WINDS WILL REMAIN A LOT LIGHTER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHTER WINDS AND MOISTURE
CONTENT NEAR THE SURFACE WITH CLEAR SKIES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND WESTERN COUNTIES
INCLUDING STARR AND WEST OF HIDALGO COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH SE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST BUT STILL REMAINS VERY LIMITED. A FEW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ITS
CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. SUNDAY BEFORE A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA MON NIGHT. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING WARM
TEMPS TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS WITH SCEC THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 3 FEET OR
LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63



000
FXUS64 KBRO 112356 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
556 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO NEAR CALM
WINDS. HOWEVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINAL
SITES IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE
KEEPING DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NEAR THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TOWARDS WEST TEXAS INTERACTING WITH
BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING AND DECREASING TO 10 MPH BY
MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND THE RGV REGION WHILE COUNTIES
WESTWARD WINDS WILL REMAIN A LOT LIGHTER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHTER WINDS AND MOISTURE
CONTENT NEAR THE SURFACE WITH CLEAR SKIES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND WESTERN COUNTIES
INCLUDING STARR AND WEST OF HIDALGO COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH SE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST BUT STILL REMAINS VERY LIMITED. A FEW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ITS
CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. SUNDAY BEFORE A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA MON NIGHT. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING WARM
TEMPS TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS WITH SCEC THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 3 FEET OR
LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KBRO 112356 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
556 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO NEAR CALM
WINDS. HOWEVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE THREE TERMINAL
SITES IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
70S AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE
KEEPING DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS DURING MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NEAR THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TOWARDS WEST TEXAS INTERACTING WITH
BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND
15 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING AND DECREASING TO 10 MPH BY
MIDNIGHT MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND THE RGV REGION WHILE COUNTIES
WESTWARD WINDS WILL REMAIN A LOT LIGHTER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHTER WINDS AND MOISTURE
CONTENT NEAR THE SURFACE WITH CLEAR SKIES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND WESTERN COUNTIES
INCLUDING STARR AND WEST OF HIDALGO COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIGGING SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS EARLY FRI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND WITH SE FLOW NEAR THE
COAST BUT STILL REMAINS VERY LIMITED. A FEW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ITS
CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WITH THE 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SOMEWHAT
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. SUNDAY BEFORE A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA MON NIGHT. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING WARM
TEMPS TO PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS WITH SCEC THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH SEAS LOWERING TO 3 FEET OR
LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AS A
RESULT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63




000
FXUS64 KHGX 112351
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
551 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 00Z TAFS CENTER AROUND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG NEAR THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT... CREATING AT
LEAST TEMPORARY IFR TO MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRIDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS GENERALLY
THROUGH 06Z... WITH RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF/ POOLING
AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
ANTICIPATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
IN PLACE... BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHICH AREAS WILL SEE THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAINING AT LEAST
25 TO 35 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THINK ENOUGH
MIXING WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR WITH THESE WINDS TO INHIBIT MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT AND KEPT TRENDS IN PREVIOUS TAF THE
SAME WITH AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT /AND IFR TO MVFR
RESTRICTIONS/ BEGINNING AROUND 09Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 15-16Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A DISTURBANCE SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO BRING A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TO THE TERMINALS
AROUND 18 TO 21Z AT COLLEGE STATION/HUNTSVILLE AND AFTER 00Z FOR
THE HOUSTON TERMINALS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK...ALTHOUGH
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER SE TEXAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. A FAIRLY LARGE
CAP WILL BE IN PLACE BUT SHOULD ERODE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUM ON
MONDAY.

WITH THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE ON THE RISE...AS SEEN BY INCREASING
DEWPOINTS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH RES SHORT TERM MODELS AND THE GUIDANCE
ARE ALL SHOWING THE BEST TIME PERIOD TO BE FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THE FOG LIFTING BY MID MORNING. IF SEA FOG
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ONSHORE...THE FOG MAY LINGER OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS LONGER. CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS CONDUCIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES. A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL LIKELY
SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. IF THE WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST THAN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...COULD ONCE AGAIN
SEE SOME AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 80.
HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY WIND. SOME COOLING IS
EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN STARTING ON
TUESDAY. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE FAR INLAND AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

40

MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS
BUT WILL PROBABLY TAKE A BIT LONGER FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL
MAINTAIN CAUTION FLAGS FOR NOW. SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WARMER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH STRENGTHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE
COAST SOMETIME ON MONDAY. 47

FIRE...
MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MODERATE ON FRIDAY. VALUES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 30-45%
NW OF HIGHWAY 59 ON FRIDAY AND 45-65% FURTHER SE. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THEY WERE TODAY AS WELL...
ESPECIALLY THE GUSTINESS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      51  74  48  67  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              55  77  50  68  48 /   0  10   0  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  71  55  64  54 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14




000
FXUS64 KCRP 112342 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
542 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5PM AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NO OTHER CHANGES RIGHT NOW.

PLEASE SEE UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY ARE SUBSIDING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IS LOW AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
MENTION DENSE FOG IN TAFS JUST YET. FOG SHOULD THEN MIX OUT
AROUND 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 12
KNOTS ON AVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...FLOW WILL TURN
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE TONIGHT SO LLVL MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE ON
THE INCREASE. AS WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT COULD SEE SOME FOG/LOW
CLOUDS INLAND SO HV CONTINUED MENTION. LOOKS LIKE THE GULF AIRMASS
PUSHING OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL CONTAIN MAINLY LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS - IN LINE WITH WATER TEMPS THERE THUS NOT EXPECTING
MARINE FOG ATTM. STILL VERY WARM ON FRIDAY WITH FULL SUN AND
LIGHTER SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR FAR
NORTH WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
TO NO CHANGE MADE TO PREV FCST TEMPS WHICH ARE GENERALLY 10-15 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WEAK BACK DOOR COOL
FRONT WILL SETTLE IN ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY BUT CAA MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
UNTIL TYPICAL MID MORNING TIME FRAME. ONSHORE WINDS QUICKLY RETURN
BY SAT AFTERNOON AS TROUGH DEVELOPS IN LEE OF ROCKIES ALLOWING TEMPS
TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. NEXT MID/UPR LVL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO TEXAS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY DRAWING GULF
MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND WHERE SKIES EXPECTED TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. S-SW WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL STILL MAINTAIN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST LATE MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS...PER PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO
LIMITED TO INCLUDE PRECIP. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND
DECREASE STEADILY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS OFF THE
GULF AS WELL SO OUR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE GONE
BY SUNSET. LIGHTER WINDS AND MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  80  53  76  58  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          53  77  51  74  54  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            53  85  55  81  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             50  83  51  79  56  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  69  56  70  59  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           48  84  51  80  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        53  81  52  76  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       60  71  57  71  60  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



000
FXUS64 KCRP 112342 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
542 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5PM AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NO OTHER CHANGES RIGHT NOW.

PLEASE SEE UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY ARE SUBSIDING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IS LOW AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
MENTION DENSE FOG IN TAFS JUST YET. FOG SHOULD THEN MIX OUT
AROUND 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 12
KNOTS ON AVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...FLOW WILL TURN
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE TONIGHT SO LLVL MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE ON
THE INCREASE. AS WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT COULD SEE SOME FOG/LOW
CLOUDS INLAND SO HV CONTINUED MENTION. LOOKS LIKE THE GULF AIRMASS
PUSHING OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL CONTAIN MAINLY LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS - IN LINE WITH WATER TEMPS THERE THUS NOT EXPECTING
MARINE FOG ATTM. STILL VERY WARM ON FRIDAY WITH FULL SUN AND
LIGHTER SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR FAR
NORTH WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
TO NO CHANGE MADE TO PREV FCST TEMPS WHICH ARE GENERALLY 10-15 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WEAK BACK DOOR COOL
FRONT WILL SETTLE IN ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY BUT CAA MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
UNTIL TYPICAL MID MORNING TIME FRAME. ONSHORE WINDS QUICKLY RETURN
BY SAT AFTERNOON AS TROUGH DEVELOPS IN LEE OF ROCKIES ALLOWING TEMPS
TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. NEXT MID/UPR LVL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO TEXAS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY DRAWING GULF
MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND WHERE SKIES EXPECTED TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. S-SW WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL STILL MAINTAIN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST LATE MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS...PER PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO
LIMITED TO INCLUDE PRECIP. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND
DECREASE STEADILY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS OFF THE
GULF AS WELL SO OUR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE GONE
BY SUNSET. LIGHTER WINDS AND MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  80  53  76  58  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          53  77  51  74  54  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            53  85  55  81  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             50  83  51  79  56  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  69  56  70  59  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           48  84  51  80  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        53  81  52  76  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       60  71  57  71  60  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 112342 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
542 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 5PM AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. NO OTHER CHANGES RIGHT NOW.

PLEASE SEE UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHERLY ARE SUBSIDING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IS LOW AT THIS TIME WILL NOT
MENTION DENSE FOG IN TAFS JUST YET. FOG SHOULD THEN MIX OUT
AROUND 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 12
KNOTS ON AVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...FLOW WILL TURN
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE TONIGHT SO LLVL MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE ON
THE INCREASE. AS WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT COULD SEE SOME FOG/LOW
CLOUDS INLAND SO HV CONTINUED MENTION. LOOKS LIKE THE GULF AIRMASS
PUSHING OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WILL CONTAIN MAINLY LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS - IN LINE WITH WATER TEMPS THERE THUS NOT EXPECTING
MARINE FOG ATTM. STILL VERY WARM ON FRIDAY WITH FULL SUN AND
LIGHTER SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR FAR
NORTH WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
TO NO CHANGE MADE TO PREV FCST TEMPS WHICH ARE GENERALLY 10-15 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WEAK BACK DOOR COOL
FRONT WILL SETTLE IN ALONG THE COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY BUT CAA MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE PATCHY FOG THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
UNTIL TYPICAL MID MORNING TIME FRAME. ONSHORE WINDS QUICKLY RETURN
BY SAT AFTERNOON AS TROUGH DEVELOPS IN LEE OF ROCKIES ALLOWING TEMPS
TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. NEXT MID/UPR LVL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO TEXAS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY DRAWING GULF
MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND WHERE SKIES EXPECTED TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. S-SW WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL STILL MAINTAIN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST LATE MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS...PER PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION. MOISTURE APPEARS TOO
LIMITED TO INCLUDE PRECIP. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND
DECREASE STEADILY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS OFF THE
GULF AS WELL SO OUR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE GONE
BY SUNSET. LIGHTER WINDS AND MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    56  80  53  76  58  /   0   0   0  10  10
VICTORIA          53  77  51  74  54  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            53  85  55  81  57  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             50  83  51  79  56  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          57  69  56  70  59  /   0   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           48  84  51  80  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        53  81  52  76  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       60  71  57  71  60  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KFWD 112336 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
536 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR AVIATION
CONCERNS EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AT WACO...SOUTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD SINCE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
REGION. AS OF 2PM WACO HAS RECORDED A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 81
DEGREES...WHICH WILL TIE THEIR RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS WILL PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. RETURN FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. A DEVELOPING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
THIS LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. INSTABILITY LOOKS
RATHER MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE PULLED MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR EAST COUNTIES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND A SLOW RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 99

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  66  39  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              42  69  39  64  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             38  63  35  52  37 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            38  65  35  57  44 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          38  65  37  55  42 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            43  65  41  58  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           41  67  39  57  43 /   0   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  68  42  61  46 /   0   0   5   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            45  70  41  65  49 /   0   0   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  68  35  61  45 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 112336 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
536 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR AVIATION
CONCERNS EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AT WACO...SOUTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD SINCE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
REGION. AS OF 2PM WACO HAS RECORDED A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 81
DEGREES...WHICH WILL TIE THEIR RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS WILL PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. RETURN FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. A DEVELOPING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
THIS LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. INSTABILITY LOOKS
RATHER MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE PULLED MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR EAST COUNTIES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND A SLOW RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 99

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  66  39  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              42  69  39  64  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             38  63  35  52  37 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            38  65  35  57  44 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          38  65  37  55  42 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            43  65  41  58  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           41  67  39  57  43 /   0   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  68  42  61  46 /   0   0   5   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            45  70  41  65  49 /   0   0   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  68  35  61  45 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KFWD 112336 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
536 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR AVIATION
CONCERNS EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AT WACO...SOUTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD SINCE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
REGION. AS OF 2PM WACO HAS RECORDED A MAX TEMPERATURE OF 81
DEGREES...WHICH WILL TIE THEIR RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS WILL PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. RETURN FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. A DEVELOPING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
THIS LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. INSTABILITY LOOKS
RATHER MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE PULLED MENTION OF THUNDER
FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR EAST COUNTIES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND A SLOW RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 99

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  66  39  59  46 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO, TX              42  69  39  64  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             38  63  35  52  37 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            38  65  35  57  44 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          38  65  37  55  42 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            43  65  41  58  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           41  67  39  57  43 /   0   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  68  42  61  46 /   0   0   5   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            45  70  41  65  49 /   0   0   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  68  35  61  45 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLUB 112321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7-10 KTS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
NOTHING MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...THEN BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS
AREA. JUST ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT TO OFFSET A MODEST
INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS WITH HIGH TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO TODAY/S AND
ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...
WINDS WILL START OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THANKS
TO A PREVIOUSLY PASSED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A STOUT SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PATCHY FOG. THE SAME
COULD BE SAID ABOUT SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
DUE TO SURFACE WINDS TAPPING GULF MOISTURE AND TRANSPORTING IT TO
THE REGION. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. AS OF NOW DENSE FOG DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMIT OF MOISTURE INFLUX BUT STRANGER THINGS
HAVE HAPPENED. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RID THE FA OF MOISTURE AND BRING WITH IT A
SHORT DURATION OF GUSTY WINDS. DESPITE SURFACE MOISTURE BEING IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL DRAG BEHIND THE FRONT
THUS PROVIDING NO PRECIP NOT TO MENTION THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE FRONT EVEN THINKS ABOUT
GIVING US A VISIT. A SECONDARY FRONT IS SHOW TO PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH SOME VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH BY THE MODELS. THE GFS
GOES GANG BUSTERS WITH THE FRONT AND BRINGS SUB-ADVISORY TO ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS A BIT QUIETER WITH
SUB-10KT WINDS FOR NOW WINDS WILL BE KEPT STRONGER THAN BLENDED
GUIDANCE BUT BELOW 20KTS FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO THE SUDDEN CHANGE
PRESENTED BY THE GFS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE RIDGES TO THE LEFT TROFS TO THE
RIGHT AND ME STUCK IN THE MIDDLE WITH YOU AND FAIRLY BENIGN AND WARM
WEATHER. A FAIRLY DEEP LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP STRETCHING FROM LOWER
ALBERTA PROVINCE TO THE BIG BEND REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 20KTS. THIS...ALONG WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...WILL WARM
TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LATE NEXT WEEK. ALDRICH

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29



000
FXUS64 KLUB 112321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7-10 KTS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
NOTHING MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...THEN BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS
AREA. JUST ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT TO OFFSET A MODEST
INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS WITH HIGH TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO TODAY/S AND
ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...
WINDS WILL START OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THANKS
TO A PREVIOUSLY PASSED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A STOUT SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PATCHY FOG. THE SAME
COULD BE SAID ABOUT SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
DUE TO SURFACE WINDS TAPPING GULF MOISTURE AND TRANSPORTING IT TO
THE REGION. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. AS OF NOW DENSE FOG DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMIT OF MOISTURE INFLUX BUT STRANGER THINGS
HAVE HAPPENED. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RID THE FA OF MOISTURE AND BRING WITH IT A
SHORT DURATION OF GUSTY WINDS. DESPITE SURFACE MOISTURE BEING IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL DRAG BEHIND THE FRONT
THUS PROVIDING NO PRECIP NOT TO MENTION THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE FRONT EVEN THINKS ABOUT
GIVING US A VISIT. A SECONDARY FRONT IS SHOW TO PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH SOME VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH BY THE MODELS. THE GFS
GOES GANG BUSTERS WITH THE FRONT AND BRINGS SUB-ADVISORY TO ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS A BIT QUIETER WITH
SUB-10KT WINDS FOR NOW WINDS WILL BE KEPT STRONGER THAN BLENDED
GUIDANCE BUT BELOW 20KTS FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO THE SUDDEN CHANGE
PRESENTED BY THE GFS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE RIDGES TO THE LEFT TROFS TO THE
RIGHT AND ME STUCK IN THE MIDDLE WITH YOU AND FAIRLY BENIGN AND WARM
WEATHER. A FAIRLY DEEP LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP STRETCHING FROM LOWER
ALBERTA PROVINCE TO THE BIG BEND REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 20KTS. THIS...ALONG WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...WILL WARM
TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LATE NEXT WEEK. ALDRICH

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KMAF 112320
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
520 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions expected
at all terminals. Weak front sinking south this afternoon however
north winds have been fairly light in its wake. Another weak
front expected Friday afternoon/evening with light NE winds toward
the end of the TAF period. Otherwise, skies will remain clear.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 139 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Tranquil weather will continue across southeast New Mexico and
west Texas through the next seven days, with above normal
temperatures and no precipitation currently forecast.

The upper pattern continues to be dominated by a high amplitude
ridge over the western CONUS and a deep trough over the east,
maintaining dry northwesterly flow aloft over the region. A weak
cold front today has resulted in slightly cooler temperatures,
especially across northern portions of the forecast area. Highs
this afternoon still look on target to reach the upper 60s to
lower 70s north to the middle to upper 70s south, with lows
tonight expected to be in the 30s and 40s, though some upper 20s
are possible across the Marfa Plateau and southeast New Mexico.
Temperatures will warm a few degrees on Friday, but with
developing easterly surface flow in the wake of today`s front,
increased moisture will result in cooler temperatures Saturday in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Southerly flow will return Sunday,
resulting in slightly warmer temperatures, though the next cold
front is progged to move through the area on Monday. This front
will be similar to today`s, only noticeable due to a north wind
shift and temperatures about 5 to 7 degrees cooler than Sunday.
Winds quickly return to the southwest by Tuesday, marking the
start of another warming trend that will persist through midweek,
with high temperatures pushing 80 degrees possible by Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  72  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  72  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  79  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  75  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  67  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          32  71  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          26  73  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           35  73  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         37  72  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           32  75  38  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72




000
FXUS64 KMAF 112320
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
520 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions expected
at all terminals. Weak front sinking south this afternoon however
north winds have been fairly light in its wake. Another weak
front expected Friday afternoon/evening with light NE winds toward
the end of the TAF period. Otherwise, skies will remain clear.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 139 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Tranquil weather will continue across southeast New Mexico and
west Texas through the next seven days, with above normal
temperatures and no precipitation currently forecast.

The upper pattern continues to be dominated by a high amplitude
ridge over the western CONUS and a deep trough over the east,
maintaining dry northwesterly flow aloft over the region. A weak
cold front today has resulted in slightly cooler temperatures,
especially across northern portions of the forecast area. Highs
this afternoon still look on target to reach the upper 60s to
lower 70s north to the middle to upper 70s south, with lows
tonight expected to be in the 30s and 40s, though some upper 20s
are possible across the Marfa Plateau and southeast New Mexico.
Temperatures will warm a few degrees on Friday, but with
developing easterly surface flow in the wake of today`s front,
increased moisture will result in cooler temperatures Saturday in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Southerly flow will return Sunday,
resulting in slightly warmer temperatures, though the next cold
front is progged to move through the area on Monday. This front
will be similar to today`s, only noticeable due to a north wind
shift and temperatures about 5 to 7 degrees cooler than Sunday.
Winds quickly return to the southwest by Tuesday, marking the
start of another warming trend that will persist through midweek,
with high temperatures pushing 80 degrees possible by Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  72  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  72  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  79  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  75  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  67  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          32  71  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          26  73  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           35  73  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         37  72  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           32  75  38  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72




000
FXUS64 KMAF 112320
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
520 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions expected
at all terminals. Weak front sinking south this afternoon however
north winds have been fairly light in its wake. Another weak
front expected Friday afternoon/evening with light NE winds toward
the end of the TAF period. Otherwise, skies will remain clear.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 139 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Tranquil weather will continue across southeast New Mexico and
west Texas through the next seven days, with above normal
temperatures and no precipitation currently forecast.

The upper pattern continues to be dominated by a high amplitude
ridge over the western CONUS and a deep trough over the east,
maintaining dry northwesterly flow aloft over the region. A weak
cold front today has resulted in slightly cooler temperatures,
especially across northern portions of the forecast area. Highs
this afternoon still look on target to reach the upper 60s to
lower 70s north to the middle to upper 70s south, with lows
tonight expected to be in the 30s and 40s, though some upper 20s
are possible across the Marfa Plateau and southeast New Mexico.
Temperatures will warm a few degrees on Friday, but with
developing easterly surface flow in the wake of today`s front,
increased moisture will result in cooler temperatures Saturday in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Southerly flow will return Sunday,
resulting in slightly warmer temperatures, though the next cold
front is progged to move through the area on Monday. This front
will be similar to today`s, only noticeable due to a north wind
shift and temperatures about 5 to 7 degrees cooler than Sunday.
Winds quickly return to the southwest by Tuesday, marking the
start of another warming trend that will persist through midweek,
with high temperatures pushing 80 degrees possible by Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  72  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  72  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  79  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  75  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  67  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          32  71  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          26  73  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           35  73  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         37  72  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           32  75  38  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72



000
FXUS64 KAMA 112318 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
518 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FRIDAY MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND BY THE END OF THE DAY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STAY AROUND OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

LORENZEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH HAS PROVIDED
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE PANHANDLES AND TEMPS INTO THE 60S
AND EVEN SOME PLACES REACHING 70. UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK
FRONTS GO THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. THESE
ALL LOOK TO BE DRY BUT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
EACH OF THESE FRONTS. SUNDAY WILL SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH AS RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND BE OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND UP TO 80 BY THURSDAY...30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

BEAT

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIP INTO THE
TEENS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...THUS PREVENTING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. 20 FOOT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GET CLOSE TO 15
MPH SO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE BELOW 20.
THURSDAY WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP BELOW 20 FOR THE AREA AND BELOW 15 FOR THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES
AND 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 15 MPH...LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ERC VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THESE ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME
PARTS OF THE CRITICAL WILDFIRE OUTBREAK COMPOSITE AS COMING TOGETHER
FOR THURSDAY. THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE
COMPOSITE SHOWS BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER EAST. THE 500 MB JET
IS ALIGNED CORRECTLY AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW CLOSELY PACKED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO KANSAS. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER THOUGH SO STAY TUNED.

BEAT

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/15




000
FXUS64 KAMA 112318 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
518 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FRIDAY MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND BY THE END OF THE DAY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STAY AROUND OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

LORENZEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH HAS PROVIDED
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE PANHANDLES AND TEMPS INTO THE 60S
AND EVEN SOME PLACES REACHING 70. UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK
FRONTS GO THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. THESE
ALL LOOK TO BE DRY BUT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
EACH OF THESE FRONTS. SUNDAY WILL SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH AS RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND BE OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND UP TO 80 BY THURSDAY...30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

BEAT

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIP INTO THE
TEENS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...THUS PREVENTING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. 20 FOOT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GET CLOSE TO 15
MPH SO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE BELOW 20.
THURSDAY WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP BELOW 20 FOR THE AREA AND BELOW 15 FOR THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES
AND 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 15 MPH...LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ERC VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THESE ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME
PARTS OF THE CRITICAL WILDFIRE OUTBREAK COMPOSITE AS COMING TOGETHER
FOR THURSDAY. THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE
COMPOSITE SHOWS BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER EAST. THE 500 MB JET
IS ALIGNED CORRECTLY AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW CLOSELY PACKED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO KANSAS. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER THOUGH SO STAY TUNED.

BEAT

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/15



000
FXUS64 KAMA 112318 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
518 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED FOR ALL TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WHICH WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FRIDAY MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND BY THE END OF THE DAY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
STAY AROUND OR BELOW 12 KNOTS.

LORENZEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
DRY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH HAS PROVIDED
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE PANHANDLES AND TEMPS INTO THE 60S
AND EVEN SOME PLACES REACHING 70. UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK
FRONTS GO THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. THESE
ALL LOOK TO BE DRY BUT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
EACH OF THESE FRONTS. SUNDAY WILL SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH AS RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND BE OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND UP TO 80 BY THURSDAY...30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

BEAT

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIP INTO THE
TEENS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...THUS PREVENTING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. 20 FOOT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GET CLOSE TO 15
MPH SO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE BELOW 20.
THURSDAY WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP BELOW 20 FOR THE AREA AND BELOW 15 FOR THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES
AND 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 15 MPH...LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ERC VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THESE ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME
PARTS OF THE CRITICAL WILDFIRE OUTBREAK COMPOSITE AS COMING TOGETHER
FOR THURSDAY. THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE
COMPOSITE SHOWS BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER EAST. THE 500 MB JET
IS ALIGNED CORRECTLY AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW CLOSELY PACKED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO KANSAS. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER THOUGH SO STAY TUNED.

BEAT

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/15




000
FXUS64 KSJT 112309
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
509 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The surface front is located near a KSJT-KBBD line as of 23z and
is expected to sag slowly south overnight. However, wind speeds
will generally remain under 6 kts, becoming variable after sunset.
Northeast winds will increase to 6-8 kts by late morning Friday.
Other than a few high clouds this evening, skies will be mostly
clear through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with above normal
temperatures expected again on Friday. For tonight, clear skies,
light winds and a dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into
the 30s areawide by day break Friday. Northwest flow aloft will
remain over the Southern Plains through the short term period,
with a surface ridge building in from the north on Friday. This
will reinforce light northeasterly surface winds during the day,
with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big
Country, to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. Skies will remain
clear through the period.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Looks like the dry weather will continue through the long term
period. Also, temperatures will mainly be above normal, by as much
as 15 to 20 degrees for highs, especially middle of next week.
An upper level northwest to west-northwest flow pattern will
dominate through the next 7 days, with a ridge over the Southern
Plains by next Thursday. One decent upper level short wave will
move southeast(ECMWF most intense with this system) early next
week just east of our area. As a result, any chance of rain will
remain east of West Central Texas. As for temperatures, highs will
be mainly in the 70s, with some lower 80s on Wednesday and
Thursday. The coolest days will be Saturday and Monday, with 60s
across the Big Country. Lows will mainly be in the 40s, with a few
30s Friday night. Also, gusty to south to southwest winds Sunday,
then a weak cold front moves through Monday and possible gusty
north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  37  69  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  36  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  29  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson




000
FXUS64 KSJT 112309
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
509 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The surface front is located near a KSJT-KBBD line as of 23z and
is expected to sag slowly south overnight. However, wind speeds
will generally remain under 6 kts, becoming variable after sunset.
Northeast winds will increase to 6-8 kts by late morning Friday.
Other than a few high clouds this evening, skies will be mostly
clear through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with above normal
temperatures expected again on Friday. For tonight, clear skies,
light winds and a dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into
the 30s areawide by day break Friday. Northwest flow aloft will
remain over the Southern Plains through the short term period,
with a surface ridge building in from the north on Friday. This
will reinforce light northeasterly surface winds during the day,
with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big
Country, to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. Skies will remain
clear through the period.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Looks like the dry weather will continue through the long term
period. Also, temperatures will mainly be above normal, by as much
as 15 to 20 degrees for highs, especially middle of next week.
An upper level northwest to west-northwest flow pattern will
dominate through the next 7 days, with a ridge over the Southern
Plains by next Thursday. One decent upper level short wave will
move southeast(ECMWF most intense with this system) early next
week just east of our area. As a result, any chance of rain will
remain east of West Central Texas. As for temperatures, highs will
be mainly in the 70s, with some lower 80s on Wednesday and
Thursday. The coolest days will be Saturday and Monday, with 60s
across the Big Country. Lows will mainly be in the 40s, with a few
30s Friday night. Also, gusty to south to southwest winds Sunday,
then a weak cold front moves through Monday and possible gusty
north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  37  69  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  36  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  29  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson



000
FXUS64 KSJT 112309
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
509 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The surface front is located near a KSJT-KBBD line as of 23z and
is expected to sag slowly south overnight. However, wind speeds
will generally remain under 6 kts, becoming variable after sunset.
Northeast winds will increase to 6-8 kts by late morning Friday.
Other than a few high clouds this evening, skies will be mostly
clear through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with above normal
temperatures expected again on Friday. For tonight, clear skies,
light winds and a dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into
the 30s areawide by day break Friday. Northwest flow aloft will
remain over the Southern Plains through the short term period,
with a surface ridge building in from the north on Friday. This
will reinforce light northeasterly surface winds during the day,
with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big
Country, to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. Skies will remain
clear through the period.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Looks like the dry weather will continue through the long term
period. Also, temperatures will mainly be above normal, by as much
as 15 to 20 degrees for highs, especially middle of next week.
An upper level northwest to west-northwest flow pattern will
dominate through the next 7 days, with a ridge over the Southern
Plains by next Thursday. One decent upper level short wave will
move southeast(ECMWF most intense with this system) early next
week just east of our area. As a result, any chance of rain will
remain east of West Central Texas. As for temperatures, highs will
be mainly in the 70s, with some lower 80s on Wednesday and
Thursday. The coolest days will be Saturday and Monday, with 60s
across the Big Country. Lows will mainly be in the 40s, with a few
30s Friday night. Also, gusty to south to southwest winds Sunday,
then a weak cold front moves through Monday and possible gusty
north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  37  69  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  36  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  29  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson



000
FXUS64 KSJT 112309
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
509 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The surface front is located near a KSJT-KBBD line as of 23z and
is expected to sag slowly south overnight. However, wind speeds
will generally remain under 6 kts, becoming variable after sunset.
Northeast winds will increase to 6-8 kts by late morning Friday.
Other than a few high clouds this evening, skies will be mostly
clear through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with above normal
temperatures expected again on Friday. For tonight, clear skies,
light winds and a dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into
the 30s areawide by day break Friday. Northwest flow aloft will
remain over the Southern Plains through the short term period,
with a surface ridge building in from the north on Friday. This
will reinforce light northeasterly surface winds during the day,
with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big
Country, to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. Skies will remain
clear through the period.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Looks like the dry weather will continue through the long term
period. Also, temperatures will mainly be above normal, by as much
as 15 to 20 degrees for highs, especially middle of next week.
An upper level northwest to west-northwest flow pattern will
dominate through the next 7 days, with a ridge over the Southern
Plains by next Thursday. One decent upper level short wave will
move southeast(ECMWF most intense with this system) early next
week just east of our area. As a result, any chance of rain will
remain east of West Central Texas. As for temperatures, highs will
be mainly in the 70s, with some lower 80s on Wednesday and
Thursday. The coolest days will be Saturday and Monday, with 60s
across the Big Country. Lows will mainly be in the 40s, with a few
30s Friday night. Also, gusty to south to southwest winds Sunday,
then a weak cold front moves through Monday and possible gusty
north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  37  69  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  36  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  29  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson



000
FXUS64 KSJT 112309
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
509 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The surface front is located near a KSJT-KBBD line as of 23z and
is expected to sag slowly south overnight. However, wind speeds
will generally remain under 6 kts, becoming variable after sunset.
Northeast winds will increase to 6-8 kts by late morning Friday.
Other than a few high clouds this evening, skies will be mostly
clear through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with above normal
temperatures expected again on Friday. For tonight, clear skies,
light winds and a dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into
the 30s areawide by day break Friday. Northwest flow aloft will
remain over the Southern Plains through the short term period,
with a surface ridge building in from the north on Friday. This
will reinforce light northeasterly surface winds during the day,
with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big
Country, to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. Skies will remain
clear through the period.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Looks like the dry weather will continue through the long term
period. Also, temperatures will mainly be above normal, by as much
as 15 to 20 degrees for highs, especially middle of next week.
An upper level northwest to west-northwest flow pattern will
dominate through the next 7 days, with a ridge over the Southern
Plains by next Thursday. One decent upper level short wave will
move southeast(ECMWF most intense with this system) early next
week just east of our area. As a result, any chance of rain will
remain east of West Central Texas. As for temperatures, highs will
be mainly in the 70s, with some lower 80s on Wednesday and
Thursday. The coolest days will be Saturday and Monday, with 60s
across the Big Country. Lows will mainly be in the 40s, with a few
30s Friday night. Also, gusty to south to southwest winds Sunday,
then a weak cold front moves through Monday and possible gusty
north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  37  69  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  36  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  29  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

Johnson



000
FXUS64 KAMA 112153
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
353 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
DRY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN US WHICH HAS PROVIDED
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE PANHANDLES AND TEMPS INTO THE 60S
AND EVEN SOME PLACES REACHING 70. UPSLOPE FLOW FRIDAY EVENING WILL
BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK
FRONTS GO THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. THESE
ALL LOOK TO BE DRY BUT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
EACH OF THESE FRONTS. SUNDAY WILL SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH AS RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND BE OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND UP TO 80 BY THURSDAY...30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY.

BEAT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIP INTO THE
TEENS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...THUS PREVENTING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. 20 FOOT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL GET CLOSE TO 15
MPH SO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE BELOW 20.
THURSDAY WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP BELOW 20 FOR THE AREA AND BELOW 15 FOR THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES
AND 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN 15 MPH...LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ERC VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THESE ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME
PARTS OF THE CRITICAL WILDFIRE OUTBREAK COMPOSITE AS COMING TOGETHER
FOR THURSDAY. THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE
COMPOSITE SHOWS BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING FARTHER EAST. THE 500 MB JET
IS ALIGNED CORRECTLY AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
HOW CLOSELY PACKED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES INTO KANSAS. THESE INGREDIENTS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET
CLOSER THOUGH SO STAY TUNED.

BEAT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                32  65  28  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  28  58  21  49  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              28  59  28  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  36  61  30  54  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              27  65  27  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  30  67  26  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               33  65  27  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 28  63  28  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  31  57  27  57  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                29  66  27  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                33  58  25  50  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   33  61  27  54  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                34  62  25  52  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              33  65  26  53  32 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/16




000
FXUS64 KSJT 112136
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
336 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with above normal
temperatures expected again on Friday. For tonight, clear skies,
light winds and a dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into
the 30s areawide by day break Friday. Northwest flow aloft will
remain over the Southern Plains through the short term period, with
a surface ridge building in from the north on Friday.  This will
reinforce light northeasterly surface winds during the day, with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big Country,
to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. Skies will remain clear
through the period.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Looks like the dry weather will continue through the long term
period. Also, temperatures will mainly be above normal, by as much
as 15 to 20 degrees for highs, especially middle of next week. An
upper level northwest to west-northwest flow pattern will dominate
through the next 7 days, with a ridge over the Southern Plains by
next Thursday. One decent upper level short wave will move
southeast(ECMWF most intense with this system) early next week just
east of our area. As a result, any chance of rain will remain east
of West Central Texas. As for temperatures, highs will be mainly in
the 70s, with some lower 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. The coolest
days will be Saturday and Monday, with 60s across the Big Country.
Lows will mainly be in the 40s, with a few 30s Friday night. Also,
gusty to south to southwest winds Sunday, then a weak cold front
moves through Monday and possible gusty north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  37  69  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  36  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  29  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

24/21



000
FXUS64 KSJT 112136
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
336 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Quiet weather will continue the next 24 hours, with above normal
temperatures expected again on Friday. For tonight, clear skies,
light winds and a dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into
the 30s areawide by day break Friday. Northwest flow aloft will
remain over the Southern Plains through the short term period, with
a surface ridge building in from the north on Friday.  This will
reinforce light northeasterly surface winds during the day, with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s across the Big Country,
to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. Skies will remain clear
through the period.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Looks like the dry weather will continue through the long term
period. Also, temperatures will mainly be above normal, by as much
as 15 to 20 degrees for highs, especially middle of next week. An
upper level northwest to west-northwest flow pattern will dominate
through the next 7 days, with a ridge over the Southern Plains by
next Thursday. One decent upper level short wave will move
southeast(ECMWF most intense with this system) early next week just
east of our area. As a result, any chance of rain will remain east
of West Central Texas. As for temperatures, highs will be mainly in
the 70s, with some lower 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. The coolest
days will be Saturday and Monday, with 60s across the Big Country.
Lows will mainly be in the 40s, with a few 30s Friday night. Also,
gusty to south to southwest winds Sunday, then a weak cold front
moves through Monday and possible gusty north winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  37  69  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  36  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  29  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

24/21




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