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000
FXUS64 KFWD 200215 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
815 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS NORTH TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW LOWERING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
REGION...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EXITING THE REGION
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
REMAINED ENTRENCHED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WITH NORTH WINDS
5-10 KTS. IFR AND MVFR REMAIN SOCKED INTO THE AREA WITH PATCHY
LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST WILL BE TRENDS
WITH CIGS AND VSBYS. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE ALL
SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...WITH THE THE NAM AND RUC THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC.

DUE TO OUR CURRENT SYNOPTIC SET UP WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS...THE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. DFW
AREA AIRPORTS WILL START OFF MVFR THIS EVENING THEN BECOME IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS. IF WINDS GO CALM WE COULD SEE VSBYS
DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS WELL. WACO WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CIGS
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME LIFR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DROP OFF.

IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLOW AS WE APPROACH THE SHORTEST
DAY OF THE YEAR. IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO VFR.
ESE FLOW LIKELY TO RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30







000
FXUS64 KFWD 200215 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
815 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS NORTH TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW LOWERING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
REGION...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EXITING THE REGION
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
REMAINED ENTRENCHED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WITH NORTH WINDS
5-10 KTS. IFR AND MVFR REMAIN SOCKED INTO THE AREA WITH PATCHY
LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST WILL BE TRENDS
WITH CIGS AND VSBYS. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE ALL
SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...WITH THE THE NAM AND RUC THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC.

DUE TO OUR CURRENT SYNOPTIC SET UP WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS...THE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. DFW
AREA AIRPORTS WILL START OFF MVFR THIS EVENING THEN BECOME IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS. IF WINDS GO CALM WE COULD SEE VSBYS
DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS WELL. WACO WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CIGS
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME LIFR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DROP OFF.

IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLOW AS WE APPROACH THE SHORTEST
DAY OF THE YEAR. IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO VFR.
ESE FLOW LIKELY TO RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30







000
FXUS64 KFWD 200215 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
815 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS NORTH TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW LOWERING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
REGION...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EXITING THE REGION
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
REMAINED ENTRENCHED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WITH NORTH WINDS
5-10 KTS. IFR AND MVFR REMAIN SOCKED INTO THE AREA WITH PATCHY
LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST WILL BE TRENDS
WITH CIGS AND VSBYS. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE ALL
SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...WITH THE THE NAM AND RUC THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC.

DUE TO OUR CURRENT SYNOPTIC SET UP WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS...THE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. DFW
AREA AIRPORTS WILL START OFF MVFR THIS EVENING THEN BECOME IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS. IF WINDS GO CALM WE COULD SEE VSBYS
DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS WELL. WACO WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CIGS
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME LIFR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DROP OFF.

IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLOW AS WE APPROACH THE SHORTEST
DAY OF THE YEAR. IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO VFR.
ESE FLOW LIKELY TO RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30







000
FXUS64 KFWD 200215 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
815 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS NORTH TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW LOWERING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
REGION...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 623 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
/00Z TAFS/

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EXITING THE REGION
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
REMAINED ENTRENCHED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WITH NORTH WINDS
5-10 KTS. IFR AND MVFR REMAIN SOCKED INTO THE AREA WITH PATCHY
LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST WILL BE TRENDS
WITH CIGS AND VSBYS. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE ALL
SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...WITH THE THE NAM AND RUC THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC.

DUE TO OUR CURRENT SYNOPTIC SET UP WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS...THE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. DFW
AREA AIRPORTS WILL START OFF MVFR THIS EVENING THEN BECOME IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS. IF WINDS GO CALM WE COULD SEE VSBYS
DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS WELL. WACO WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CIGS
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME LIFR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DROP OFF.

IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLOW AS WE APPROACH THE SHORTEST
DAY OF THE YEAR. IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO VFR.
ESE FLOW LIKELY TO RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

05/


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/30






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 200125
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
722 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Will update to increase clouds overnight, and to warm lows up a
degree or two. Patchy areas of fog, mainly 3 to 5 miles is also
possible towards morning...with the best potential along the I-10
corridor, Mason and Menard counties.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The southern-most terminals have improved to VFR the last several
hours. However, stratus will redevelop this evening and return all
terminals to MVFR through the remainder of the evening and through
tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light and variable through the
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

(Tonight and Saturday)

The visible satellite imagery was showing stratus across much of the
northern 2/3 of West Central Texas. The southern 1/3 of the area is
mostly clear. Temperatures were cool due to mainly the low clouds,
with readings in the mid to upper 40s. However, Sonora has warmed
into the upper 50s.

For tonight, the main challenge will be how the low clouds set up.
The NAM and GFS models indicate moisture surging back to the west at
925 MB between the 06Z to 12Z time frame. Looks like the Big Country
will pretty much remain cloudy due to current satellite trends. Low
clouds will increase again across the remainder of the area,
especially along the I-10 corridor which is currently mostly clear.
A shallow cool airmass will result in temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 30s by Saturday morning.

For Saturday, expect widespread low clouds across much of the area
during the morning hours. There will be some breaks in the clouds by
the afternoon and possibly mostly sunny across the western 1/3 of
the area. Highs will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Friday)

Seasonably mild to warm temperatures will continue through Christmas
Day. A shortwave trough and associated vort max approaching the
region from our west Saturday night, will cross the area on Sunday.
A weak cold front will also drop south during the day Monday. None
of these features are expected to bring any rainfall to the area.
Westerly surface winds ahead of the cold front will result in a
down-sloping wind across the area. This, combined with compressional
heating, will allow gusty winds to develop. This will help warm
temperatures to near 70 degrees, with the warmest readings/higher
wind gusts across the western half of the area. For Monday
night/Tuesday, a vort max rounding the base of a Central Plains
trough will pass by to our north/east. This may generate enough
forcing for a few showers to develop. The models have come into
better agreement with this. Thus, showers were added to the
forecast for areas along/north of Interstate 20; this matches
well with surrounding offices.

For the middle to end of the week, a progressive shortwave trough
will cross the region and strengthen some as it crosses the Central
Plains by week`s end. A strong vort max in the base of the trough
will be crossing Arizona Thursday, which will dampen out as it
lifts east/northeast away from West Central Texas Friday, sending
a weak cold front south towards the area. Similar to earlier in
the week, compressional heating ahead of this front and a
southwest wind with its associated down-sloping effect, will again
warm temperatures for Christmas Day. Thus, highs near 70 degrees
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  38  54  42  60  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  36  58  42  63  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  37  58  40  60  42 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/04









000
FXUS64 KSJT 200125
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
722 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Will update to increase clouds overnight, and to warm lows up a
degree or two. Patchy areas of fog, mainly 3 to 5 miles is also
possible towards morning...with the best potential along the I-10
corridor, Mason and Menard counties.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The southern-most terminals have improved to VFR the last several
hours. However, stratus will redevelop this evening and return all
terminals to MVFR through the remainder of the evening and through
tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light and variable through the
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

(Tonight and Saturday)

The visible satellite imagery was showing stratus across much of the
northern 2/3 of West Central Texas. The southern 1/3 of the area is
mostly clear. Temperatures were cool due to mainly the low clouds,
with readings in the mid to upper 40s. However, Sonora has warmed
into the upper 50s.

For tonight, the main challenge will be how the low clouds set up.
The NAM and GFS models indicate moisture surging back to the west at
925 MB between the 06Z to 12Z time frame. Looks like the Big Country
will pretty much remain cloudy due to current satellite trends. Low
clouds will increase again across the remainder of the area,
especially along the I-10 corridor which is currently mostly clear.
A shallow cool airmass will result in temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 30s by Saturday morning.

For Saturday, expect widespread low clouds across much of the area
during the morning hours. There will be some breaks in the clouds by
the afternoon and possibly mostly sunny across the western 1/3 of
the area. Highs will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Friday)

Seasonably mild to warm temperatures will continue through Christmas
Day. A shortwave trough and associated vort max approaching the
region from our west Saturday night, will cross the area on Sunday.
A weak cold front will also drop south during the day Monday. None
of these features are expected to bring any rainfall to the area.
Westerly surface winds ahead of the cold front will result in a
down-sloping wind across the area. This, combined with compressional
heating, will allow gusty winds to develop. This will help warm
temperatures to near 70 degrees, with the warmest readings/higher
wind gusts across the western half of the area. For Monday
night/Tuesday, a vort max rounding the base of a Central Plains
trough will pass by to our north/east. This may generate enough
forcing for a few showers to develop. The models have come into
better agreement with this. Thus, showers were added to the
forecast for areas along/north of Interstate 20; this matches
well with surrounding offices.

For the middle to end of the week, a progressive shortwave trough
will cross the region and strengthen some as it crosses the Central
Plains by week`s end. A strong vort max in the base of the trough
will be crossing Arizona Thursday, which will dampen out as it
lifts east/northeast away from West Central Texas Friday, sending
a weak cold front south towards the area. Similar to earlier in
the week, compressional heating ahead of this front and a
southwest wind with its associated down-sloping effect, will again
warm temperatures for Christmas Day. Thus, highs near 70 degrees
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  38  54  42  60  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  36  58  42  63  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  37  58  40  60  42 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/04









000
FXUS64 KSJT 200125
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
722 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Will update to increase clouds overnight, and to warm lows up a
degree or two. Patchy areas of fog, mainly 3 to 5 miles is also
possible towards morning...with the best potential along the I-10
corridor, Mason and Menard counties.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The southern-most terminals have improved to VFR the last several
hours. However, stratus will redevelop this evening and return all
terminals to MVFR through the remainder of the evening and through
tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light and variable through the
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

(Tonight and Saturday)

The visible satellite imagery was showing stratus across much of the
northern 2/3 of West Central Texas. The southern 1/3 of the area is
mostly clear. Temperatures were cool due to mainly the low clouds,
with readings in the mid to upper 40s. However, Sonora has warmed
into the upper 50s.

For tonight, the main challenge will be how the low clouds set up.
The NAM and GFS models indicate moisture surging back to the west at
925 MB between the 06Z to 12Z time frame. Looks like the Big Country
will pretty much remain cloudy due to current satellite trends. Low
clouds will increase again across the remainder of the area,
especially along the I-10 corridor which is currently mostly clear.
A shallow cool airmass will result in temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 30s by Saturday morning.

For Saturday, expect widespread low clouds across much of the area
during the morning hours. There will be some breaks in the clouds by
the afternoon and possibly mostly sunny across the western 1/3 of
the area. Highs will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Friday)

Seasonably mild to warm temperatures will continue through Christmas
Day. A shortwave trough and associated vort max approaching the
region from our west Saturday night, will cross the area on Sunday.
A weak cold front will also drop south during the day Monday. None
of these features are expected to bring any rainfall to the area.
Westerly surface winds ahead of the cold front will result in a
down-sloping wind across the area. This, combined with compressional
heating, will allow gusty winds to develop. This will help warm
temperatures to near 70 degrees, with the warmest readings/higher
wind gusts across the western half of the area. For Monday
night/Tuesday, a vort max rounding the base of a Central Plains
trough will pass by to our north/east. This may generate enough
forcing for a few showers to develop. The models have come into
better agreement with this. Thus, showers were added to the
forecast for areas along/north of Interstate 20; this matches
well with surrounding offices.

For the middle to end of the week, a progressive shortwave trough
will cross the region and strengthen some as it crosses the Central
Plains by week`s end. A strong vort max in the base of the trough
will be crossing Arizona Thursday, which will dampen out as it
lifts east/northeast away from West Central Texas Friday, sending
a weak cold front south towards the area. Similar to earlier in
the week, compressional heating ahead of this front and a
southwest wind with its associated down-sloping effect, will again
warm temperatures for Christmas Day. Thus, highs near 70 degrees
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  38  54  42  60  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  36  58  42  63  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  37  58  40  60  42 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/04









000
FXUS64 KSJT 200125
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
722 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Will update to increase clouds overnight, and to warm lows up a
degree or two. Patchy areas of fog, mainly 3 to 5 miles is also
possible towards morning...with the best potential along the I-10
corridor, Mason and Menard counties.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The southern-most terminals have improved to VFR the last several
hours. However, stratus will redevelop this evening and return all
terminals to MVFR through the remainder of the evening and through
tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light and variable through the
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

(Tonight and Saturday)

The visible satellite imagery was showing stratus across much of the
northern 2/3 of West Central Texas. The southern 1/3 of the area is
mostly clear. Temperatures were cool due to mainly the low clouds,
with readings in the mid to upper 40s. However, Sonora has warmed
into the upper 50s.

For tonight, the main challenge will be how the low clouds set up.
The NAM and GFS models indicate moisture surging back to the west at
925 MB between the 06Z to 12Z time frame. Looks like the Big Country
will pretty much remain cloudy due to current satellite trends. Low
clouds will increase again across the remainder of the area,
especially along the I-10 corridor which is currently mostly clear.
A shallow cool airmass will result in temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 30s by Saturday morning.

For Saturday, expect widespread low clouds across much of the area
during the morning hours. There will be some breaks in the clouds by
the afternoon and possibly mostly sunny across the western 1/3 of
the area. Highs will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Friday)

Seasonably mild to warm temperatures will continue through Christmas
Day. A shortwave trough and associated vort max approaching the
region from our west Saturday night, will cross the area on Sunday.
A weak cold front will also drop south during the day Monday. None
of these features are expected to bring any rainfall to the area.
Westerly surface winds ahead of the cold front will result in a
down-sloping wind across the area. This, combined with compressional
heating, will allow gusty winds to develop. This will help warm
temperatures to near 70 degrees, with the warmest readings/higher
wind gusts across the western half of the area. For Monday
night/Tuesday, a vort max rounding the base of a Central Plains
trough will pass by to our north/east. This may generate enough
forcing for a few showers to develop. The models have come into
better agreement with this. Thus, showers were added to the
forecast for areas along/north of Interstate 20; this matches
well with surrounding offices.

For the middle to end of the week, a progressive shortwave trough
will cross the region and strengthen some as it crosses the Central
Plains by week`s end. A strong vort max in the base of the trough
will be crossing Arizona Thursday, which will dampen out as it
lifts east/northeast away from West Central Texas Friday, sending
a weak cold front south towards the area. Similar to earlier in
the week, compressional heating ahead of this front and a
southwest wind with its associated down-sloping effect, will again
warm temperatures for Christmas Day. Thus, highs near 70 degrees
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  38  54  42  60  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  36  58  42  63  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  37  58  40  60  42 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/04









000
FXUS64 KSJT 200125
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
722 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Will update to increase clouds overnight, and to warm lows up a
degree or two. Patchy areas of fog, mainly 3 to 5 miles is also
possible towards morning...with the best potential along the I-10
corridor, Mason and Menard counties.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The southern-most terminals have improved to VFR the last several
hours. However, stratus will redevelop this evening and return all
terminals to MVFR through the remainder of the evening and through
tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light and variable through the
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

(Tonight and Saturday)

The visible satellite imagery was showing stratus across much of the
northern 2/3 of West Central Texas. The southern 1/3 of the area is
mostly clear. Temperatures were cool due to mainly the low clouds,
with readings in the mid to upper 40s. However, Sonora has warmed
into the upper 50s.

For tonight, the main challenge will be how the low clouds set up.
The NAM and GFS models indicate moisture surging back to the west at
925 MB between the 06Z to 12Z time frame. Looks like the Big Country
will pretty much remain cloudy due to current satellite trends. Low
clouds will increase again across the remainder of the area,
especially along the I-10 corridor which is currently mostly clear.
A shallow cool airmass will result in temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 30s by Saturday morning.

For Saturday, expect widespread low clouds across much of the area
during the morning hours. There will be some breaks in the clouds by
the afternoon and possibly mostly sunny across the western 1/3 of
the area. Highs will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Friday)

Seasonably mild to warm temperatures will continue through Christmas
Day. A shortwave trough and associated vort max approaching the
region from our west Saturday night, will cross the area on Sunday.
A weak cold front will also drop south during the day Monday. None
of these features are expected to bring any rainfall to the area.
Westerly surface winds ahead of the cold front will result in a
down-sloping wind across the area. This, combined with compressional
heating, will allow gusty winds to develop. This will help warm
temperatures to near 70 degrees, with the warmest readings/higher
wind gusts across the western half of the area. For Monday
night/Tuesday, a vort max rounding the base of a Central Plains
trough will pass by to our north/east. This may generate enough
forcing for a few showers to develop. The models have come into
better agreement with this. Thus, showers were added to the
forecast for areas along/north of Interstate 20; this matches
well with surrounding offices.

For the middle to end of the week, a progressive shortwave trough
will cross the region and strengthen some as it crosses the Central
Plains by week`s end. A strong vort max in the base of the trough
will be crossing Arizona Thursday, which will dampen out as it
lifts east/northeast away from West Central Texas Friday, sending
a weak cold front south towards the area. Similar to earlier in
the week, compressional heating ahead of this front and a
southwest wind with its associated down-sloping effect, will again
warm temperatures for Christmas Day. Thus, highs near 70 degrees
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  38  54  42  60  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  36  58  42  63  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  37  58  40  60  42 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/04









000
FXUS64 KSJT 200125
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
722 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Will update to increase clouds overnight, and to warm lows up a
degree or two. Patchy areas of fog, mainly 3 to 5 miles is also
possible towards morning...with the best potential along the I-10
corridor, Mason and Menard counties.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The southern-most terminals have improved to VFR the last several
hours. However, stratus will redevelop this evening and return all
terminals to MVFR through the remainder of the evening and through
tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light and variable through the
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

(Tonight and Saturday)

The visible satellite imagery was showing stratus across much of the
northern 2/3 of West Central Texas. The southern 1/3 of the area is
mostly clear. Temperatures were cool due to mainly the low clouds,
with readings in the mid to upper 40s. However, Sonora has warmed
into the upper 50s.

For tonight, the main challenge will be how the low clouds set up.
The NAM and GFS models indicate moisture surging back to the west at
925 MB between the 06Z to 12Z time frame. Looks like the Big Country
will pretty much remain cloudy due to current satellite trends. Low
clouds will increase again across the remainder of the area,
especially along the I-10 corridor which is currently mostly clear.
A shallow cool airmass will result in temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 30s by Saturday morning.

For Saturday, expect widespread low clouds across much of the area
during the morning hours. There will be some breaks in the clouds by
the afternoon and possibly mostly sunny across the western 1/3 of
the area. Highs will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Friday)

Seasonably mild to warm temperatures will continue through Christmas
Day. A shortwave trough and associated vort max approaching the
region from our west Saturday night, will cross the area on Sunday.
A weak cold front will also drop south during the day Monday. None
of these features are expected to bring any rainfall to the area.
Westerly surface winds ahead of the cold front will result in a
down-sloping wind across the area. This, combined with compressional
heating, will allow gusty winds to develop. This will help warm
temperatures to near 70 degrees, with the warmest readings/higher
wind gusts across the western half of the area. For Monday
night/Tuesday, a vort max rounding the base of a Central Plains
trough will pass by to our north/east. This may generate enough
forcing for a few showers to develop. The models have come into
better agreement with this. Thus, showers were added to the
forecast for areas along/north of Interstate 20; this matches
well with surrounding offices.

For the middle to end of the week, a progressive shortwave trough
will cross the region and strengthen some as it crosses the Central
Plains by week`s end. A strong vort max in the base of the trough
will be crossing Arizona Thursday, which will dampen out as it
lifts east/northeast away from West Central Texas Friday, sending
a weak cold front south towards the area. Similar to earlier in
the week, compressional heating ahead of this front and a
southwest wind with its associated down-sloping effect, will again
warm temperatures for Christmas Day. Thus, highs near 70 degrees
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  38  54  42  60  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  36  58  42  63  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  37  58  40  60  42 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/04







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 200120
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
720 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...OVERCAST CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAS EXPANDED
SOUTH THIS EVENING...ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 281. THERE MAY BE
ADDITIONAL EXPANSION TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATES
MADE TO SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT 11-3.9U SATELLITE TRENDS AS
WELL AS OUTPUT FROM THE WRF ABI SYNTHETIC 10.35-3.9U IMAGERY.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO HOURLY T GRIDS. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION... /UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS/
A DECK OF MVFR CIGS COVERS AUSTIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
EXPAND SOUTHWEST TO IMPACT SAT/SSF TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. A LIGHT BUT STEADY NRLY WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS FROM SEEING SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS...BUT CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY FALL TO BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR LEVELS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. GENTLE SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE OVERRUN BY ZONAL
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY...SO MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ALL DAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF 3 PM...SKIES WERE BEGINNING TO CLEAR UP ON THE ESCARPMENT
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 60S
IN THAT AREA WITH THE I35 CORRIDOR STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
WITH CLOUD COVER PERSISTENT. BELIEVE THIS GRADUAL SKY COVER TREND
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
MORNING TOMORROW.

A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND AND CLOUD COVER OFF THE ESCARPMENT WILL
PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. HOWEVER FROM
THE I35 CORRIDOR WEST...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND T OVER
VALUES OF -2 TO -6 WERE INDICATED IN MOS GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEKEND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS. OUR FIRST OF WHICH
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO BE A QUICK ONE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH TOO DRY OF AN AIR MASS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH SFC PRESSURE
IN PLACE WILL MAKE NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK
MOST LIKELY. OPTED TO DECREASE THE LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS
PERIOD DUE TO PRETTY SIGNIFICANT ENSEMBLE VARIATION LENDING TO THE
IDEA THAT THE GUIDANCE VALUES MAY NOT BE TOO ACCURATE. BUT WITH A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY KEEPING WINDS
AT A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...STRONG NORTHERLY 850 MB WINDS...AND A
DRY COLUMN...WOULD IMAGINE THE COLDER SIDE OF THE FENCE IS THE
BEST WAY TO LEAN FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CHRISTMAS DAY IS SHAPING UP TO LOOK QUITE PLEASANT...UNLESS YOU
WERE HOPING FOR COLD AND SNOWY. IT SHOULD BEGIN RATHER
CHILLY...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT CERTAINLY NOT SNOWY.
IN FACT...CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
THE 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH EACH MODEL
RUN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE THE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA BY SATURDAY...THE EURO DOESNT HAVE IT CLEARING
EWX UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS OF BOTH MODELS
BEGIN SIGNIFICANT CHRISTMAS DAY ON HANDLING THE NEXT POSSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHICH OUTCOME HOLDS MORE
WATER AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              46  56  43  60  48 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  56  41  59  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  56  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  54  39  58  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  60  45  63  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  54  39  58  47 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  59  44  62  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  57  42  61  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  57  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  57  44  61  49 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           46  58  45  62  49 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 200120
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
720 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...OVERCAST CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAS EXPANDED
SOUTH THIS EVENING...ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 281. THERE MAY BE
ADDITIONAL EXPANSION TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATES
MADE TO SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT 11-3.9U SATELLITE TRENDS AS
WELL AS OUTPUT FROM THE WRF ABI SYNTHETIC 10.35-3.9U IMAGERY.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO HOURLY T GRIDS. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION... /UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS/
A DECK OF MVFR CIGS COVERS AUSTIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
EXPAND SOUTHWEST TO IMPACT SAT/SSF TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. A LIGHT BUT STEADY NRLY WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS FROM SEEING SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS...BUT CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY FALL TO BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR LEVELS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. GENTLE SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE OVERRUN BY ZONAL
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY...SO MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ALL DAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF 3 PM...SKIES WERE BEGINNING TO CLEAR UP ON THE ESCARPMENT
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 60S
IN THAT AREA WITH THE I35 CORRIDOR STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
WITH CLOUD COVER PERSISTENT. BELIEVE THIS GRADUAL SKY COVER TREND
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
MORNING TOMORROW.

A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND AND CLOUD COVER OFF THE ESCARPMENT WILL
PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. HOWEVER FROM
THE I35 CORRIDOR WEST...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND T OVER
VALUES OF -2 TO -6 WERE INDICATED IN MOS GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEKEND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS. OUR FIRST OF WHICH
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO BE A QUICK ONE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH TOO DRY OF AN AIR MASS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH SFC PRESSURE
IN PLACE WILL MAKE NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK
MOST LIKELY. OPTED TO DECREASE THE LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS
PERIOD DUE TO PRETTY SIGNIFICANT ENSEMBLE VARIATION LENDING TO THE
IDEA THAT THE GUIDANCE VALUES MAY NOT BE TOO ACCURATE. BUT WITH A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY KEEPING WINDS
AT A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...STRONG NORTHERLY 850 MB WINDS...AND A
DRY COLUMN...WOULD IMAGINE THE COLDER SIDE OF THE FENCE IS THE
BEST WAY TO LEAN FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CHRISTMAS DAY IS SHAPING UP TO LOOK QUITE PLEASANT...UNLESS YOU
WERE HOPING FOR COLD AND SNOWY. IT SHOULD BEGIN RATHER
CHILLY...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT CERTAINLY NOT SNOWY.
IN FACT...CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
THE 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH EACH MODEL
RUN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE THE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA BY SATURDAY...THE EURO DOESNT HAVE IT CLEARING
EWX UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS OF BOTH MODELS
BEGIN SIGNIFICANT CHRISTMAS DAY ON HANDLING THE NEXT POSSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHICH OUTCOME HOLDS MORE
WATER AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              46  56  43  60  48 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  56  41  59  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  56  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  54  39  58  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  60  45  63  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  54  39  58  47 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  59  44  62  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  57  42  61  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  57  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  57  44  61  49 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           46  58  45  62  49 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 200120
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
720 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...OVERCAST CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAS EXPANDED
SOUTH THIS EVENING...ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 281. THERE MAY BE
ADDITIONAL EXPANSION TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATES
MADE TO SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT 11-3.9U SATELLITE TRENDS AS
WELL AS OUTPUT FROM THE WRF ABI SYNTHETIC 10.35-3.9U IMAGERY.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO HOURLY T GRIDS. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION... /UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS/
A DECK OF MVFR CIGS COVERS AUSTIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
EXPAND SOUTHWEST TO IMPACT SAT/SSF TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. A LIGHT BUT STEADY NRLY WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS FROM SEEING SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS...BUT CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY FALL TO BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR LEVELS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. GENTLE SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE OVERRUN BY ZONAL
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY...SO MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ALL DAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF 3 PM...SKIES WERE BEGINNING TO CLEAR UP ON THE ESCARPMENT
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 60S
IN THAT AREA WITH THE I35 CORRIDOR STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
WITH CLOUD COVER PERSISTENT. BELIEVE THIS GRADUAL SKY COVER TREND
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
MORNING TOMORROW.

A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND AND CLOUD COVER OFF THE ESCARPMENT WILL
PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. HOWEVER FROM
THE I35 CORRIDOR WEST...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND T OVER
VALUES OF -2 TO -6 WERE INDICATED IN MOS GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEKEND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS. OUR FIRST OF WHICH
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO BE A QUICK ONE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH TOO DRY OF AN AIR MASS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH SFC PRESSURE
IN PLACE WILL MAKE NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK
MOST LIKELY. OPTED TO DECREASE THE LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS
PERIOD DUE TO PRETTY SIGNIFICANT ENSEMBLE VARIATION LENDING TO THE
IDEA THAT THE GUIDANCE VALUES MAY NOT BE TOO ACCURATE. BUT WITH A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY KEEPING WINDS
AT A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...STRONG NORTHERLY 850 MB WINDS...AND A
DRY COLUMN...WOULD IMAGINE THE COLDER SIDE OF THE FENCE IS THE
BEST WAY TO LEAN FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CHRISTMAS DAY IS SHAPING UP TO LOOK QUITE PLEASANT...UNLESS YOU
WERE HOPING FOR COLD AND SNOWY. IT SHOULD BEGIN RATHER
CHILLY...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT CERTAINLY NOT SNOWY.
IN FACT...CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
THE 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH EACH MODEL
RUN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE THE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA BY SATURDAY...THE EURO DOESNT HAVE IT CLEARING
EWX UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS OF BOTH MODELS
BEGIN SIGNIFICANT CHRISTMAS DAY ON HANDLING THE NEXT POSSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHICH OUTCOME HOLDS MORE
WATER AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              46  56  43  60  48 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  56  41  59  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  56  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  54  39  58  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  60  45  63  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  54  39  58  47 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  59  44  62  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  57  42  61  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  57  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  57  44  61  49 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           46  58  45  62  49 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





000
FXUS64 KEWX 200120
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
720 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...OVERCAST CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAS EXPANDED
SOUTH THIS EVENING...ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 281. THERE MAY BE
ADDITIONAL EXPANSION TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. MINOR UPDATES
MADE TO SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT 11-3.9U SATELLITE TRENDS AS
WELL AS OUTPUT FROM THE WRF ABI SYNTHETIC 10.35-3.9U IMAGERY.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO HOURLY T GRIDS. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION... /UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS/
A DECK OF MVFR CIGS COVERS AUSTIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
EXPAND SOUTHWEST TO IMPACT SAT/SSF TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. A LIGHT BUT STEADY NRLY WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS FROM SEEING SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS...BUT CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY FALL TO BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR LEVELS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. GENTLE SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE OVERRUN BY ZONAL
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY...SO MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ALL DAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF 3 PM...SKIES WERE BEGINNING TO CLEAR UP ON THE ESCARPMENT
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 60S
IN THAT AREA WITH THE I35 CORRIDOR STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
WITH CLOUD COVER PERSISTENT. BELIEVE THIS GRADUAL SKY COVER TREND
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
MORNING TOMORROW.

A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND AND CLOUD COVER OFF THE ESCARPMENT WILL
PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. HOWEVER FROM
THE I35 CORRIDOR WEST...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND T OVER
VALUES OF -2 TO -6 WERE INDICATED IN MOS GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEKEND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS. OUR FIRST OF WHICH
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO BE A QUICK ONE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH TOO DRY OF AN AIR MASS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH SFC PRESSURE
IN PLACE WILL MAKE NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK
MOST LIKELY. OPTED TO DECREASE THE LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS
PERIOD DUE TO PRETTY SIGNIFICANT ENSEMBLE VARIATION LENDING TO THE
IDEA THAT THE GUIDANCE VALUES MAY NOT BE TOO ACCURATE. BUT WITH A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY KEEPING WINDS
AT A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...STRONG NORTHERLY 850 MB WINDS...AND A
DRY COLUMN...WOULD IMAGINE THE COLDER SIDE OF THE FENCE IS THE
BEST WAY TO LEAN FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CHRISTMAS DAY IS SHAPING UP TO LOOK QUITE PLEASANT...UNLESS YOU
WERE HOPING FOR COLD AND SNOWY. IT SHOULD BEGIN RATHER
CHILLY...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT CERTAINLY NOT SNOWY.
IN FACT...CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
THE 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH EACH MODEL
RUN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE THE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA BY SATURDAY...THE EURO DOESNT HAVE IT CLEARING
EWX UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS OF BOTH MODELS
BEGIN SIGNIFICANT CHRISTMAS DAY ON HANDLING THE NEXT POSSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHICH OUTCOME HOLDS MORE
WATER AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              46  56  43  60  48 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  45  56  41  59  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  56  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            42  54  39  58  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  60  45  63  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        44  54  39  58  47 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             41  59  44  62  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        45  57  42  61  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   48  57  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       46  57  44  61  49 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           46  58  45  62  49 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KFWD 200023 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
623 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EXITING THE REGION
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
REMAINED ENTRENCHED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WITH NORTH WINDS
5-10 KTS. IFR AND MVFR REMAIN SOCKED INTO THE AREA WITH PATCHY
LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST WILL BE TRENDS
WITH CIGS AND VSBYS. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE ALL
SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...WITH THE THE NAM AND RUC THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC.

DUE TO OUR CURRENT SYNOPTIC SET UP WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS...THE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. DFW
AREA AIRPORTS WILL START OFF MVFR THIS EVENING THEN BECOME IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS. IF WINDS GO CALM WE COULD SEE VSBYS
DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS WELL. WACO WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CIGS
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME LIFR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DROP OFF.

IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLOW AS WE APPROACH THE SHORTEST
DAY OF THE YEAR. IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO VFR.
ESE FLOW LIKELY TO RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/81





000
FXUS64 KFWD 200023 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
623 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EXITING THE REGION
THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
REMAINED ENTRENCHED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WITH NORTH WINDS
5-10 KTS. IFR AND MVFR REMAIN SOCKED INTO THE AREA WITH PATCHY
LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST WILL BE TRENDS
WITH CIGS AND VSBYS. MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE ALL
SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...WITH THE THE NAM AND RUC THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC.

DUE TO OUR CURRENT SYNOPTIC SET UP WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS...THE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. DFW
AREA AIRPORTS WILL START OFF MVFR THIS EVENING THEN BECOME IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS. IF WINDS GO CALM WE COULD SEE VSBYS
DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AS WELL. WACO WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CIGS
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME LIFR OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
DROP OFF.

IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLOW AS WE APPROACH THE SHORTEST
DAY OF THE YEAR. IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO VFR.
ESE FLOW LIKELY TO RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/81





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KAMA 192354
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
554 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD WESTWARD...WITH LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND FOG LIKELY
AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR
LATE MORNING AND SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8-15KTS BY AFTERNOON.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN/SHARPEN TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE LEE TROUGH SOME AREAS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED CHANCES OF FOG EITHER FORMING OR PERSISTING INTO THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW GIVEN DRIER WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO ONCE AGAIN LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED TOMORROW AND
IMPLICATIONS THAT MAY HAVE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWNWARD FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOG MAY FORM ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS PATTERN IS VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW POTENTIALLY FORCING PERIODIC BRIEF
RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN OUR REGION AS WELL
AS MODEST COLD SURGES. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS. FROM AN ENSEMBLE MEAN PERSPECTIVE INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE
DAMPENED OUT EXCEPT FOR THE ONE THAT MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THIS
SEEMS TO BE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF NOTEABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES
THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE AND ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA POTENTIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE MONDAY WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
MAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGE. WITH POST FRONTAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SIGNIFICANT MOMENTUM ALOFT...AND AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL TO MIX INTO THAT...HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A VIGOROUS TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. SURFACE RESPONSE SHOULD MAY BE FAIRLY DRAMATIC
WITH LEE TROUGH QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY MORPHING
INTO A BROAD SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO EXIST AT THAT RANGE WITH THE
12Z ECMWF BEING MUCH DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
SO THERE SEEMS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A GRADIENT WIND EVENT BY AROUND
FRIDAY. SUBSEQUENTLY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRING COLDER AIR
BY SATURDAY.

BOWERS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 192354
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
554 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD WESTWARD...WITH LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND FOG LIKELY
AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR
LATE MORNING AND SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8-15KTS BY AFTERNOON.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN/SHARPEN TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE LEE TROUGH SOME AREAS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED CHANCES OF FOG EITHER FORMING OR PERSISTING INTO THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW GIVEN DRIER WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO ONCE AGAIN LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED TOMORROW AND
IMPLICATIONS THAT MAY HAVE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWNWARD FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOG MAY FORM ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS PATTERN IS VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW POTENTIALLY FORCING PERIODIC BRIEF
RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN OUR REGION AS WELL
AS MODEST COLD SURGES. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS. FROM AN ENSEMBLE MEAN PERSPECTIVE INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE
DAMPENED OUT EXCEPT FOR THE ONE THAT MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THIS
SEEMS TO BE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF NOTEABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES
THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE AND ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA POTENTIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE MONDAY WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
MAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGE. WITH POST FRONTAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SIGNIFICANT MOMENTUM ALOFT...AND AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL TO MIX INTO THAT...HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A VIGOROUS TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. SURFACE RESPONSE SHOULD MAY BE FAIRLY DRAMATIC
WITH LEE TROUGH QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY MORPHING
INTO A BROAD SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO EXIST AT THAT RANGE WITH THE
12Z ECMWF BEING MUCH DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
SO THERE SEEMS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A GRADIENT WIND EVENT BY AROUND
FRIDAY. SUBSEQUENTLY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRING COLDER AIR
BY SATURDAY.

BOWERS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 192354
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
554 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD WESTWARD...WITH LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND FOG LIKELY
AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR
LATE MORNING AND SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8-15KTS BY AFTERNOON.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN/SHARPEN TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE LEE TROUGH SOME AREAS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED CHANCES OF FOG EITHER FORMING OR PERSISTING INTO THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW GIVEN DRIER WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO ONCE AGAIN LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED TOMORROW AND
IMPLICATIONS THAT MAY HAVE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWNWARD FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOG MAY FORM ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS PATTERN IS VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW POTENTIALLY FORCING PERIODIC BRIEF
RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN OUR REGION AS WELL
AS MODEST COLD SURGES. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS. FROM AN ENSEMBLE MEAN PERSPECTIVE INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE
DAMPENED OUT EXCEPT FOR THE ONE THAT MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THIS
SEEMS TO BE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF NOTEABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES
THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE AND ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA POTENTIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE MONDAY WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
MAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGE. WITH POST FRONTAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SIGNIFICANT MOMENTUM ALOFT...AND AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL TO MIX INTO THAT...HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A VIGOROUS TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. SURFACE RESPONSE SHOULD MAY BE FAIRLY DRAMATIC
WITH LEE TROUGH QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY MORPHING
INTO A BROAD SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO EXIST AT THAT RANGE WITH THE
12Z ECMWF BEING MUCH DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
SO THERE SEEMS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A GRADIENT WIND EVENT BY AROUND
FRIDAY. SUBSEQUENTLY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRING COLDER AIR
BY SATURDAY.

BOWERS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 192354
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
554 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD WESTWARD...WITH LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND FOG LIKELY
AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR
LATE MORNING AND SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8-15KTS BY AFTERNOON.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN/SHARPEN TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE LEE TROUGH SOME AREAS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED CHANCES OF FOG EITHER FORMING OR PERSISTING INTO THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW GIVEN DRIER WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO ONCE AGAIN LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED TOMORROW AND
IMPLICATIONS THAT MAY HAVE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWNWARD FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOG MAY FORM ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS PATTERN IS VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW POTENTIALLY FORCING PERIODIC BRIEF
RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN OUR REGION AS WELL
AS MODEST COLD SURGES. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS. FROM AN ENSEMBLE MEAN PERSPECTIVE INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE
DAMPENED OUT EXCEPT FOR THE ONE THAT MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THIS
SEEMS TO BE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF NOTEABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES
THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE AND ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA POTENTIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE MONDAY WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
MAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGE. WITH POST FRONTAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SIGNIFICANT MOMENTUM ALOFT...AND AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL TO MIX INTO THAT...HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A VIGOROUS TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. SURFACE RESPONSE SHOULD MAY BE FAIRLY DRAMATIC
WITH LEE TROUGH QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY MORPHING
INTO A BROAD SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO EXIST AT THAT RANGE WITH THE
12Z ECMWF BEING MUCH DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
SO THERE SEEMS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A GRADIENT WIND EVENT BY AROUND
FRIDAY. SUBSEQUENTLY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRING COLDER AIR
BY SATURDAY.

BOWERS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/05






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 192345
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
545 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAP AND NAM12 FCST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ON SATURDAY. WET GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS EVENT EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRECIP WILL BE PUSHING EWD AND OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS WITH DEPARTING UPPER TROF. SRN PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THEY WILL PROBABLY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT.

CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING HI/LOW TEMPS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE THIS WEEKEND. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 2000FT WITH VARYING DEGREES OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEKEND. NAM12 KEEPS A
PERSISTENT THIN CLOUD DECK IN PLACE THRU EARLY SUNDAY WHILE OTHERS
SHOW SOME CLEARING. PAST EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
ROUTE SEEMS TO VERIFY MUCH OF THE TIME IN THESE SCENARIOS SO WILL
HOLD ONTO MCLDY CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST THE AFTN HOURS SAT.
FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TWEAK WITH ESTABLISHED TRENDS.

ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES MON AS HIGH PRES EXITS TO THE EAST. WESTERN RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO MIDWEEK. PATTERN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.
WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST LOWISH POPS ALONG THIS FRONT CONSIDERING
LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN. DRY AND COOL WX THEN PERSISTS
INTO EARLY XMAS MORNING.

SFC HIGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE NW AND NCNTL GULF ON XMAS DAY.
WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SSW AND GRADIENT RAPIDLY TIGHTENS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST. WARMER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE FCST FOR XMAS DAY ALONG W/ INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AS GULF MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED BACK INLAND. NEXT FRONT PENCILEDIN
FOR LATE FRI NIGHT OR SAT MORNING. 47

MARINE...
AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REACHING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THESE WILL RELAX SATURDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MARINE AREAS ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      47  56  46  59  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              49  58  46  60  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            51  57  52  59  52 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43



000
FXUS64 KHGX 192345
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
545 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAP AND NAM12 FCST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ON SATURDAY. WET GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS EVENT EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRECIP WILL BE PUSHING EWD AND OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS WITH DEPARTING UPPER TROF. SRN PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THEY WILL PROBABLY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT.

CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING HI/LOW TEMPS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE THIS WEEKEND. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 2000FT WITH VARYING DEGREES OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEKEND. NAM12 KEEPS A
PERSISTENT THIN CLOUD DECK IN PLACE THRU EARLY SUNDAY WHILE OTHERS
SHOW SOME CLEARING. PAST EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
ROUTE SEEMS TO VERIFY MUCH OF THE TIME IN THESE SCENARIOS SO WILL
HOLD ONTO MCLDY CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST THE AFTN HOURS SAT.
FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TWEAK WITH ESTABLISHED TRENDS.

ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES MON AS HIGH PRES EXITS TO THE EAST. WESTERN RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO MIDWEEK. PATTERN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.
WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST LOWISH POPS ALONG THIS FRONT CONSIDERING
LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN. DRY AND COOL WX THEN PERSISTS
INTO EARLY XMAS MORNING.

SFC HIGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE NW AND NCNTL GULF ON XMAS DAY.
WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SSW AND GRADIENT RAPIDLY TIGHTENS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST. WARMER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE FCST FOR XMAS DAY ALONG W/ INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AS GULF MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED BACK INLAND. NEXT FRONT PENCILEDIN
FOR LATE FRI NIGHT OR SAT MORNING. 47

MARINE...
AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REACHING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THESE WILL RELAX SATURDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MARINE AREAS ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      47  56  46  59  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              49  58  46  60  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            51  57  52  59  52 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43




000
FXUS64 KEWX 192342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
542 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION... /UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS/
A DECK OF MVFR CIGS COVERS AUSTIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
EXPAND SOUTHWEST TO IMPACT SAT/SSF TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. A LIGHT BUT STEADY NRLY WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS FROM SEEING SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS...BUT CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY FALL TO BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR LEVELS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. GENTLE SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE OVERRUN BY ZONAL
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY...SO MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ALL DAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF 3 PM...SKIES WERE BEGINNING TO CLEAR UP ON THE ESCARPMENT
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 60S
IN THAT AREA WITH THE I35 CORRIDOR STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
WITH CLOUD COVER PERSISTENT. BELIEVE THIS GRADUAL SKY COVER TREND
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
MORNING TOMORROW.

A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND AND CLOUD COVER OFF THE ESCARPMENT WILL
PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. HOWEVER FROM
THE I35 CORRIDOR WEST...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND T OVER
VALUES OF -2 TO -6 WERE INDICATED IN MOS GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEKEND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS. OUR FIRST OF WHICH
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO BE A QUICK ONE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH TOO DRY OF AN AIR MASS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH SFC PRESSURE
IN PLACE WILL MAKE NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK
MOST LIKELY. OPTED TO DECREASE THE LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS
PERIOD DUE TO PRETTY SIGNIFICANT ENSEMBLE VARIATION LENDING TO THE
IDEA THAT THE GUIDANCE VALUES MAY NOT BE TOO ACCURATE. BUT WITH A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY KEEPING WINDS
AT A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...STRONG NORTHERLY 850 MB WINDS...AND A
DRY COLUMN...WOULD IMAGINE THE COLDER SIDE OF THE FENCE IS THE
BEST WAY TO LEAN FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CHRISTMAS DAY IS SHAPING UP TO LOOK QUITE PLEASANT...UNLESS YOU
WERE HOPING FOR COLD AND SNOWY. IT SHOULD BEGIN RATHER
CHILLY...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT CERTAINLY NOT SNOWY.
IN FACT...CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
THE 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH EACH MODEL
RUN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE THE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA BY SATURDAY...THE EURO DOESNT HAVE IT CLEARING
EWX UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS OF BOTH MODELS
BEGIN SIGNIFICANT CHRISTMAS DAY ON HANDLING THE NEXT POSSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHICH OUTCOME HOLDS MORE
WATER AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  56  43  60  48 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  56  41  59  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  56  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  54  39  58  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           47  60  45  63  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  54  39  58  47 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             38  59  44  62  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  57  42  61  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  57  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       45  57  44  61  49 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  58  45  62  49 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 192342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
542 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION... /UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS/
A DECK OF MVFR CIGS COVERS AUSTIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
EXPAND SOUTHWEST TO IMPACT SAT/SSF TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. A LIGHT BUT STEADY NRLY WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS FROM SEEING SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS...BUT CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY FALL TO BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR LEVELS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. GENTLE SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE OVERRUN BY ZONAL
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY...SO MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ALL DAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF 3 PM...SKIES WERE BEGINNING TO CLEAR UP ON THE ESCARPMENT
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 60S
IN THAT AREA WITH THE I35 CORRIDOR STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
WITH CLOUD COVER PERSISTENT. BELIEVE THIS GRADUAL SKY COVER TREND
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
MORNING TOMORROW.

A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND AND CLOUD COVER OFF THE ESCARPMENT WILL
PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. HOWEVER FROM
THE I35 CORRIDOR WEST...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND T OVER
VALUES OF -2 TO -6 WERE INDICATED IN MOS GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEKEND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS. OUR FIRST OF WHICH
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO BE A QUICK ONE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH TOO DRY OF AN AIR MASS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH SFC PRESSURE
IN PLACE WILL MAKE NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK
MOST LIKELY. OPTED TO DECREASE THE LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS
PERIOD DUE TO PRETTY SIGNIFICANT ENSEMBLE VARIATION LENDING TO THE
IDEA THAT THE GUIDANCE VALUES MAY NOT BE TOO ACCURATE. BUT WITH A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY KEEPING WINDS
AT A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...STRONG NORTHERLY 850 MB WINDS...AND A
DRY COLUMN...WOULD IMAGINE THE COLDER SIDE OF THE FENCE IS THE
BEST WAY TO LEAN FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CHRISTMAS DAY IS SHAPING UP TO LOOK QUITE PLEASANT...UNLESS YOU
WERE HOPING FOR COLD AND SNOWY. IT SHOULD BEGIN RATHER
CHILLY...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT CERTAINLY NOT SNOWY.
IN FACT...CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
THE 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH EACH MODEL
RUN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE THE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA BY SATURDAY...THE EURO DOESNT HAVE IT CLEARING
EWX UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS OF BOTH MODELS
BEGIN SIGNIFICANT CHRISTMAS DAY ON HANDLING THE NEXT POSSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHICH OUTCOME HOLDS MORE
WATER AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  56  43  60  48 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  56  41  59  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  56  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  54  39  58  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           47  60  45  63  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  54  39  58  47 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             38  59  44  62  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  57  42  61  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  57  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       45  57  44  61  49 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  58  45  62  49 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 192342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
542 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION... /UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS/
A DECK OF MVFR CIGS COVERS AUSTIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
EXPAND SOUTHWEST TO IMPACT SAT/SSF TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. A LIGHT BUT STEADY NRLY WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS FROM SEEING SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS...BUT CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY FALL TO BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR LEVELS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. GENTLE SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE OVERRUN BY ZONAL
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY...SO MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ALL DAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF 3 PM...SKIES WERE BEGINNING TO CLEAR UP ON THE ESCARPMENT
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 60S
IN THAT AREA WITH THE I35 CORRIDOR STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
WITH CLOUD COVER PERSISTENT. BELIEVE THIS GRADUAL SKY COVER TREND
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
MORNING TOMORROW.

A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND AND CLOUD COVER OFF THE ESCARPMENT WILL
PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. HOWEVER FROM
THE I35 CORRIDOR WEST...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND T OVER
VALUES OF -2 TO -6 WERE INDICATED IN MOS GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEKEND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS. OUR FIRST OF WHICH
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO BE A QUICK ONE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH TOO DRY OF AN AIR MASS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH SFC PRESSURE
IN PLACE WILL MAKE NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK
MOST LIKELY. OPTED TO DECREASE THE LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS
PERIOD DUE TO PRETTY SIGNIFICANT ENSEMBLE VARIATION LENDING TO THE
IDEA THAT THE GUIDANCE VALUES MAY NOT BE TOO ACCURATE. BUT WITH A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY KEEPING WINDS
AT A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...STRONG NORTHERLY 850 MB WINDS...AND A
DRY COLUMN...WOULD IMAGINE THE COLDER SIDE OF THE FENCE IS THE
BEST WAY TO LEAN FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CHRISTMAS DAY IS SHAPING UP TO LOOK QUITE PLEASANT...UNLESS YOU
WERE HOPING FOR COLD AND SNOWY. IT SHOULD BEGIN RATHER
CHILLY...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT CERTAINLY NOT SNOWY.
IN FACT...CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
THE 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH EACH MODEL
RUN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE THE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA BY SATURDAY...THE EURO DOESNT HAVE IT CLEARING
EWX UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS OF BOTH MODELS
BEGIN SIGNIFICANT CHRISTMAS DAY ON HANDLING THE NEXT POSSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHICH OUTCOME HOLDS MORE
WATER AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  56  43  60  48 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  56  41  59  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  56  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  54  39  58  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           47  60  45  63  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  54  39  58  47 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             38  59  44  62  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  57  42  61  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  57  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       45  57  44  61  49 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  58  45  62  49 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KEWX 192342
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
542 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION... /UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS/
A DECK OF MVFR CIGS COVERS AUSTIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD
EXPAND SOUTHWEST TO IMPACT SAT/SSF TERMINALS IN THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. A LIGHT BUT STEADY NRLY WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS FROM SEEING SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS...BUT CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY FALL TO BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR LEVELS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. GENTLE SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE OVERRUN BY ZONAL
WINDS ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY...SO MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD
OVERCAST SKIES IN THE MVFR CATEGORY ALL DAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF 3 PM...SKIES WERE BEGINNING TO CLEAR UP ON THE ESCARPMENT
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 60S
IN THAT AREA WITH THE I35 CORRIDOR STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
WITH CLOUD COVER PERSISTENT. BELIEVE THIS GRADUAL SKY COVER TREND
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
MORNING TOMORROW.

A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND AND CLOUD COVER OFF THE ESCARPMENT WILL
PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. HOWEVER FROM
THE I35 CORRIDOR WEST...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND T OVER
VALUES OF -2 TO -6 WERE INDICATED IN MOS GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEKEND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS. OUR FIRST OF WHICH
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO BE A QUICK ONE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH TOO DRY OF AN AIR MASS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH SFC PRESSURE
IN PLACE WILL MAKE NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK
MOST LIKELY. OPTED TO DECREASE THE LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS
PERIOD DUE TO PRETTY SIGNIFICANT ENSEMBLE VARIATION LENDING TO THE
IDEA THAT THE GUIDANCE VALUES MAY NOT BE TOO ACCURATE. BUT WITH A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY KEEPING WINDS
AT A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...STRONG NORTHERLY 850 MB WINDS...AND A
DRY COLUMN...WOULD IMAGINE THE COLDER SIDE OF THE FENCE IS THE
BEST WAY TO LEAN FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CHRISTMAS DAY IS SHAPING UP TO LOOK QUITE PLEASANT...UNLESS YOU
WERE HOPING FOR COLD AND SNOWY. IT SHOULD BEGIN RATHER
CHILLY...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT CERTAINLY NOT SNOWY.
IN FACT...CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
THE 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH EACH MODEL
RUN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE THE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA BY SATURDAY...THE EURO DOESNT HAVE IT CLEARING
EWX UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS OF BOTH MODELS
BEGIN SIGNIFICANT CHRISTMAS DAY ON HANDLING THE NEXT POSSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHICH OUTCOME HOLDS MORE
WATER AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  56  43  60  48 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  56  41  59  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  56  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  54  39  58  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           47  60  45  63  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  54  39  58  47 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             38  59  44  62  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  57  42  61  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  57  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       45  57  44  61  49 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  58  45  62  49 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBRO 192340 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
540 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS BOTTOMED OUT
AROUND 500 FEET EARLIER...BUT HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1000 CURRENTLY.
CIGS WILL FLUCTUATE LITTLE OVERNIGHT...MAYBE RISING TO 2000 LATE
TONIGHT. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NOTED THAT CLEARING SKIES
WERE ALREADY MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD KMFE...AND MAY BRING SOME
CONSIDERABLE BREAKS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO SCT GROUP FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED AT AREA LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH GRADUALLY RISING CIGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...CURRENTLY THE SATELLITE
AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW ALREADY A NORTHERLY WIND OVER THE RANCHLANDS
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON THE NORTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
15 MPH AND LOWER CEILINGS GRADUALLY RISING. AS DRY AIR KEEPS
FILTERING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES MORE CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST AND
MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WEST. THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS VERY LOW AS
DRY AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY
REMAIN LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
ENHANCE OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT BY THIS EVENING NO ADDITIONAL RAIN
IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE TROUGH WILL BUILD MAINTAINING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A BIT COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA. THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID TO LOW 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHILE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME BREAK IN THE CLOUDS COULD SEE MID TO UPPER
40S. DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN THE AIR...LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY. INTO SATURDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS MEXICO HELPING
SHIFT EAST THE HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
NE BY MID MORNING AND RETURN TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT MAINLY KEEPING A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP NO MORE
THAN MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ONSHORE FLOW SURGING
DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO RETURN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LEFT INHERITED 30 PERCENT AT
THIS TIME WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
BE ALMOST THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH THICKNESS VALUES REMAINING
ALMOST STEADY OVER THE CWA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA
SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD THURSDAY TO PROVIDE RELATIVELY WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY.

MARINE...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
INCREASE WINDS AND BUILD SEAS DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. A
SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THIS HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. IT IS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH LOWERING SEAS AND WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHEAST TO EAST AS A WEAK BOUNDARY LIFT NORTHWARD.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUES AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TUES MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/64





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KCRP 192336
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
536 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT WEST...BUT HOLDING ON IN THE
EAST MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED TAF...ESPECIALLY FOR ALI AS CLEARING
LINE CURRENTLY VERY NEAR THIS TERMINAL. THINK ALI SITE WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. WHETHER IT STAYS CLEAR OR THE CLOUDS
BACK INTO TO AREA AGAIN IS THE QUESTION. HAVE TRIED TO COVER THIS
WITH TEMPO GROUPS EARLY. LRD SITE SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT...GOING MVFR EARLY MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT
FOG AT LRD AND ALI SITES. VCT/CRP SHOULD REMAIN MVFR TO IFR DURING
THE NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS HOLD OVER THE REGION. THINK ALL SITES
SHOULD GO MVFR LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND AN OVERCAST MID LEVEL DECK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED OFF THE COAST TODAY TAKING THE PRECIP WITH IT. ISOLD -SHRA`S
CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SOME EROSION OF CLOUDS HAS TAKEN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID SECTIONS OF S TX...HOWEVER LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MODELS PROG LIGHT PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW RELATIVELY DRIER
NEAR SFC LAYER. IF FOG DOES DVLP...VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST 5SM OR BETTER...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FCST. WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20KT THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7FT. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z
SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY BE BELOW ADVISORY BY AROUND 12Z BUT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. MODELS KEEP CLOUDS IN THE
FCST THRU SAT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING OVC CONDITIONS. WENT WITH
PC ACROSS THE W TO MC SKIES ACROSS THE E. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP HIGHS ON
SAT FROM GETTING OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS THE NRN CWA. BY SAT
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN WITH OVERRUNNING
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING INITIALLY ACROSS COASTAL WATERS SAT EVENING
THEN SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WARMING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...CAA AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
MN TEMPS SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FCST.  A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN WITH MOSTLY
ABV NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WK.  WK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH AXIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT WATERS.  BY
SUNDAY EVENING...THE S/WV TROUGH AXIS WL HAVE PASSED EAST AND USHER
IN DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE CWA.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND S/SW FLOW ON MONDAY...AFTN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S IN
MOST AREAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
BREEZY/SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT.  SFC AND UPR
LVL RIDGING WL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...
KEEPING A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AND AGAIN ON NEXT FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  60  50  63  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
VICTORIA          48  59  45  62  47  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            50  62  50  66  51  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             50  60  49  64  50  /  10  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          50  58  51  62  53  /  10  10  20  30  10
COTULLA           46  60  45  64  48  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        51  60  50  64  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       54  60  52  62  55  /  10  10  20  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 192336
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
536 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT WEST...BUT HOLDING ON IN THE
EAST MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED TAF...ESPECIALLY FOR ALI AS CLEARING
LINE CURRENTLY VERY NEAR THIS TERMINAL. THINK ALI SITE WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. WHETHER IT STAYS CLEAR OR THE CLOUDS
BACK INTO TO AREA AGAIN IS THE QUESTION. HAVE TRIED TO COVER THIS
WITH TEMPO GROUPS EARLY. LRD SITE SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT...GOING MVFR EARLY MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT
FOG AT LRD AND ALI SITES. VCT/CRP SHOULD REMAIN MVFR TO IFR DURING
THE NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS HOLD OVER THE REGION. THINK ALL SITES
SHOULD GO MVFR LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND AN OVERCAST MID LEVEL DECK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED OFF THE COAST TODAY TAKING THE PRECIP WITH IT. ISOLD -SHRA`S
CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SOME EROSION OF CLOUDS HAS TAKEN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID SECTIONS OF S TX...HOWEVER LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MODELS PROG LIGHT PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW RELATIVELY DRIER
NEAR SFC LAYER. IF FOG DOES DVLP...VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST 5SM OR BETTER...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FCST. WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20KT THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7FT. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z
SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY BE BELOW ADVISORY BY AROUND 12Z BUT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. MODELS KEEP CLOUDS IN THE
FCST THRU SAT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING OVC CONDITIONS. WENT WITH
PC ACROSS THE W TO MC SKIES ACROSS THE E. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP HIGHS ON
SAT FROM GETTING OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS THE NRN CWA. BY SAT
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN WITH OVERRUNNING
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING INITIALLY ACROSS COASTAL WATERS SAT EVENING
THEN SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WARMING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...CAA AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
MN TEMPS SAT NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FCST.  A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN WITH MOSTLY
ABV NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WK.  WK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH AXIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT WATERS.  BY
SUNDAY EVENING...THE S/WV TROUGH AXIS WL HAVE PASSED EAST AND USHER
IN DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE CWA.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND S/SW FLOW ON MONDAY...AFTN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S IN
MOST AREAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
BREEZY/SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT.  SFC AND UPR
LVL RIDGING WL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...
KEEPING A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AND AGAIN ON NEXT FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  60  50  63  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
VICTORIA          48  59  45  62  47  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            50  62  50  66  51  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             50  60  49  64  50  /  10  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          50  58  51  62  53  /  10  10  20  30  10
COTULLA           46  60  45  64  48  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        51  60  50  64  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       54  60  52  62  55  /  10  10  20  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLUB 192325
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
525 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS MVFR CLOUD DECKS PERSISTED AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES...THOUGH THE CLEARING LINE WAS NEARING KLBB AND KPVW AND
COULD THEREFORE RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT-BKN MVFR DECKS.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WITH IFR CLOUD DECKS MAKING A
RETURN AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR FOG
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND VEER FURTHER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THEREAFTER THE SCOURING OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR AT KLBB AND KPVW. KCDS WILL LIKELY HOLD
ON TO MVFR CLOUD DECKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTANT LOW CLOUD DECK AND FOG HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.  CLEARING LINE HAS ALMOST MADE IT TO
LBB AND WE MAY SEE BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE MOISTURE RACES EASTWARD
TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN. INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS EVENING PERHAPS THICKEST OUT WEST.  WITH FORECAST LOWS
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES...HAVE KEPT /THOUGH SHRUNK/
FZFG ACROSS PARMER/BAILEY/CASTRO COUNTIES TONIGHT.  INTO
SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO PUSH EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY THOUGH
REMAINING LONGEST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50.  WE
WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

LONG TERM...
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
MORNING...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW ON LEE SIDE OF ROCKIES FROM
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST FOR THE BEGINNING
OF LONGTERM. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH AXIS CENTERED TO OUR EAST PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATER MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA GIVEN
PROXIMITY TO HIGHER DEWPTS AND STEEPER PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS DROP TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES DIVES
SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MIDWEEK IS WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF BEGIN
TO DIVERGE. BOTH INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH AND VORTMAX ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GFS QUICKLY SHIFTS AND
FLATTENS THE TROUGH TO THE EAST RESULTING IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE
WEST FRIDAY...IN FACT THE ECMWF INDICATES A JETMAX MOVING ACROSS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY UPWARDS OF 120KTS AT 300MB...WHILE THE GFS POSITIONS THE
JET FARTHER NORTH INTO KANSAS AND IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. GFS SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH OTHER LONGTERM GUIDANCE LEANING
TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

EITHER WAY CHRISTMAS WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND POTENTIALLY WINDY AS WELL. THERES
PLENTY OF TIME TO WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO BUILD CONSENSUS AND HAMMER
OUT THE DETAILS FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NEXT
WEEK AND FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  53  28  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         30  53  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  53  34  59  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  54  35  60  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       32  53  36  61  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  54  35  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    32  54  37  62  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  49  37  57  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          33  52  39  60  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     36  53  39  60  40 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 192325
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
525 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS MVFR CLOUD DECKS PERSISTED AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES...THOUGH THE CLEARING LINE WAS NEARING KLBB AND KPVW AND
COULD THEREFORE RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT-BKN MVFR DECKS.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WITH IFR CLOUD DECKS MAKING A
RETURN AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR FOG
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND VEER FURTHER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THEREAFTER THE SCOURING OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR AT KLBB AND KPVW. KCDS WILL LIKELY HOLD
ON TO MVFR CLOUD DECKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTANT LOW CLOUD DECK AND FOG HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.  CLEARING LINE HAS ALMOST MADE IT TO
LBB AND WE MAY SEE BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE MOISTURE RACES EASTWARD
TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN. INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS EVENING PERHAPS THICKEST OUT WEST.  WITH FORECAST LOWS
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES...HAVE KEPT /THOUGH SHRUNK/
FZFG ACROSS PARMER/BAILEY/CASTRO COUNTIES TONIGHT.  INTO
SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO PUSH EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY THOUGH
REMAINING LONGEST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50.  WE
WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

LONG TERM...
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
MORNING...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW ON LEE SIDE OF ROCKIES FROM
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST FOR THE BEGINNING
OF LONGTERM. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH AXIS CENTERED TO OUR EAST PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATER MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA GIVEN
PROXIMITY TO HIGHER DEWPTS AND STEEPER PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS DROP TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES DIVES
SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MIDWEEK IS WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF BEGIN
TO DIVERGE. BOTH INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH AND VORTMAX ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GFS QUICKLY SHIFTS AND
FLATTENS THE TROUGH TO THE EAST RESULTING IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE
WEST FRIDAY...IN FACT THE ECMWF INDICATES A JETMAX MOVING ACROSS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY UPWARDS OF 120KTS AT 300MB...WHILE THE GFS POSITIONS THE
JET FARTHER NORTH INTO KANSAS AND IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. GFS SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH OTHER LONGTERM GUIDANCE LEANING
TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

EITHER WAY CHRISTMAS WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND POTENTIALLY WINDY AS WELL. THERES
PLENTY OF TIME TO WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO BUILD CONSENSUS AND HAMMER
OUT THE DETAILS FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NEXT
WEEK AND FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  53  28  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         30  53  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  53  34  59  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  54  35  60  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       32  53  36  61  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  54  35  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    32  54  37  62  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  49  37  57  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          33  52  39  60  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     36  53  39  60  40 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMAF 192323
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Lower CIG/VIS has retreated east of the TAF sites this afternoon,
but will move back into the area tonight. IFR to LIFR conditions
are expected to develop 06-12Z before improving around 18Z. There
is a chance for 1/4SM FG and VV001, especially at MAF and HOB, but
confidence is not high enough to put in the forecast at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows low clouds have slowly eroded from southwest
to northeast today. This has kept afternoon temperatures on the
cool side, especially across the northern and eastern portions of
the Permian Basin where low clouds remain in place. Indications
are that fog and low clouds will again reestablish themselves
along and east of the Pecos River overnight. Thus, we have
included mention of areas of fog in the forecast for these
locations.

Overall, the entire forecast looks dry with moderate temperatures
for southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas through the period.
Surface low pressure along and east of the northern and central
portions of the Rockies will result in south to southwest surface
winds on Saturday with downslope westerly winds on Sunday and
Monday. The resulting warming trend will push high temperatures
into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Monday afternoon.

As a Northern Plains upper level storm system and associated low
pressure area slides into the Upper Midwest early Tuesday, we should
see a cool down as a cold front slides into our area Tuesday
morning.  Little or no precipitation is forecast with this system,
except perhaps over the extreme northeast portions of the Permian
Basin and Rolling Plains. However, with the progressive nature of
the northern stream, impacts from this cold front will be brief
and uneventful. A quick exit of this cooler air will bring another
warming trend to our area, with high temperatures near 70
expected on Christmas Day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 192323
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Lower CIG/VIS has retreated east of the TAF sites this afternoon,
but will move back into the area tonight. IFR to LIFR conditions
are expected to develop 06-12Z before improving around 18Z. There
is a chance for 1/4SM FG and VV001, especially at MAF and HOB, but
confidence is not high enough to put in the forecast at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows low clouds have slowly eroded from southwest
to northeast today. This has kept afternoon temperatures on the
cool side, especially across the northern and eastern portions of
the Permian Basin where low clouds remain in place. Indications
are that fog and low clouds will again reestablish themselves
along and east of the Pecos River overnight. Thus, we have
included mention of areas of fog in the forecast for these
locations.

Overall, the entire forecast looks dry with moderate temperatures
for southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas through the period.
Surface low pressure along and east of the northern and central
portions of the Rockies will result in south to southwest surface
winds on Saturday with downslope westerly winds on Sunday and
Monday. The resulting warming trend will push high temperatures
into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Monday afternoon.

As a Northern Plains upper level storm system and associated low
pressure area slides into the Upper Midwest early Tuesday, we should
see a cool down as a cold front slides into our area Tuesday
morning.  Little or no precipitation is forecast with this system,
except perhaps over the extreme northeast portions of the Permian
Basin and Rolling Plains. However, with the progressive nature of
the northern stream, impacts from this cold front will be brief
and uneventful. A quick exit of this cooler air will bring another
warming trend to our area, with high temperatures near 70
expected on Christmas Day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 192323
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Lower CIG/VIS has retreated east of the TAF sites this afternoon,
but will move back into the area tonight. IFR to LIFR conditions
are expected to develop 06-12Z before improving around 18Z. There
is a chance for 1/4SM FG and VV001, especially at MAF and HOB, but
confidence is not high enough to put in the forecast at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows low clouds have slowly eroded from southwest
to northeast today. This has kept afternoon temperatures on the
cool side, especially across the northern and eastern portions of
the Permian Basin where low clouds remain in place. Indications
are that fog and low clouds will again reestablish themselves
along and east of the Pecos River overnight. Thus, we have
included mention of areas of fog in the forecast for these
locations.

Overall, the entire forecast looks dry with moderate temperatures
for southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas through the period.
Surface low pressure along and east of the northern and central
portions of the Rockies will result in south to southwest surface
winds on Saturday with downslope westerly winds on Sunday and
Monday. The resulting warming trend will push high temperatures
into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Monday afternoon.

As a Northern Plains upper level storm system and associated low
pressure area slides into the Upper Midwest early Tuesday, we should
see a cool down as a cold front slides into our area Tuesday
morning.  Little or no precipitation is forecast with this system,
except perhaps over the extreme northeast portions of the Permian
Basin and Rolling Plains. However, with the progressive nature of
the northern stream, impacts from this cold front will be brief
and uneventful. A quick exit of this cooler air will bring another
warming trend to our area, with high temperatures near 70
expected on Christmas Day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 192323
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
523 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Lower CIG/VIS has retreated east of the TAF sites this afternoon,
but will move back into the area tonight. IFR to LIFR conditions
are expected to develop 06-12Z before improving around 18Z. There
is a chance for 1/4SM FG and VV001, especially at MAF and HOB, but
confidence is not high enough to put in the forecast at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows low clouds have slowly eroded from southwest
to northeast today. This has kept afternoon temperatures on the
cool side, especially across the northern and eastern portions of
the Permian Basin where low clouds remain in place. Indications
are that fog and low clouds will again reestablish themselves
along and east of the Pecos River overnight. Thus, we have
included mention of areas of fog in the forecast for these
locations.

Overall, the entire forecast looks dry with moderate temperatures
for southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas through the period.
Surface low pressure along and east of the northern and central
portions of the Rockies will result in south to southwest surface
winds on Saturday with downslope westerly winds on Sunday and
Monday. The resulting warming trend will push high temperatures
into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Monday afternoon.

As a Northern Plains upper level storm system and associated low
pressure area slides into the Upper Midwest early Tuesday, we should
see a cool down as a cold front slides into our area Tuesday
morning.  Little or no precipitation is forecast with this system,
except perhaps over the extreme northeast portions of the Permian
Basin and Rolling Plains. However, with the progressive nature of
the northern stream, impacts from this cold front will be brief
and uneventful. A quick exit of this cooler air will bring another
warming trend to our area, with high temperatures near 70
expected on Christmas Day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 192314
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
514 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The southern-most terminals have improved to VFR the last several
hours. However, stratus will redevelop this evening and return all
terminals to MVFR through the remainder of the evening and through
tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light and variable through the
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

(Tonight and Saturday)

The visible satellite imagery was showing stratus across much of the
northern 2/3 of West Central Texas. The southern 1/3 of the area is
mostly clear. Temperatures were cool due to mainly the low clouds,
with readings in the mid to upper 40s. However, Sonora has warmed
into the upper 50s.

For tonight, the main challenge will be how the low clouds set up.
The NAM and GFS models indicate moisture surging back to the west at
925 MB between the 06Z to 12Z time frame. Looks like the Big Country
will pretty much remain cloudy due to current satellite trends. Low
clouds will increase again across the remainder of the area,
especially along the I-10 corridor which is currently mostly clear.
A shallow cool airmass will result in temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 30s by Saturday morning.

For Saturday, expect widespread low clouds across much of the area
during the morning hours. There will be some breaks in the clouds by
the afternoon and possibly mostly sunny across the western 1/3 of
the area. Highs will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Friday)

Seasonably mild to warm temperatures will continue through Christmas
Day. A shortwave trough and associated vort max approaching the
region from our west Saturday night, will cross the area on Sunday.
A weak cold front will also drop south during the day Monday. None
of these features are expected to bring any rainfall to the area.
Westerly surface winds ahead of the cold front will result in a
down-sloping wind across the area. This, combined with compressional
heating, will allow gusty winds to develop. This will help warm
temperatures to near 70 degrees, with the warmest readings/higher
wind gusts across the western half of the area. For Monday
night/Tuesday, a vort max rounding the base of a Central Plains
trough will pass by to our north/east. This may generate enough
forcing for a few showers to develop. The models have come into
better agreement with this. Thus, showers were added to the
forecast for areas along/north of Interstate 20; this matches
well with surrounding offices.

For the middle to end of the week, a progressive shortwave trough
will cross the region and strengthen some as it crosses the Central
Plains by week`s end. A strong vort max in the base of the trough
will be crossing Arizona Thursday, which will dampen out as it
lifts east/northeast away from West Central Texas Friday, sending
a weak cold front south towards the area. Similar to earlier in
the week, compressional heating ahead of this front and a
southwest wind with its associated down-sloping effect, will again
warm temperatures for Christmas Day. Thus, highs near 70 degrees
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  35  54  42  60  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  36  58  42  63  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  36  58  40  60  42 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSJT 192314
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
514 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The southern-most terminals have improved to VFR the last several
hours. However, stratus will redevelop this evening and return all
terminals to MVFR through the remainder of the evening and through
tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light and variable through the
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

(Tonight and Saturday)

The visible satellite imagery was showing stratus across much of the
northern 2/3 of West Central Texas. The southern 1/3 of the area is
mostly clear. Temperatures were cool due to mainly the low clouds,
with readings in the mid to upper 40s. However, Sonora has warmed
into the upper 50s.

For tonight, the main challenge will be how the low clouds set up.
The NAM and GFS models indicate moisture surging back to the west at
925 MB between the 06Z to 12Z time frame. Looks like the Big Country
will pretty much remain cloudy due to current satellite trends. Low
clouds will increase again across the remainder of the area,
especially along the I-10 corridor which is currently mostly clear.
A shallow cool airmass will result in temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 30s by Saturday morning.

For Saturday, expect widespread low clouds across much of the area
during the morning hours. There will be some breaks in the clouds by
the afternoon and possibly mostly sunny across the western 1/3 of
the area. Highs will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Friday)

Seasonably mild to warm temperatures will continue through Christmas
Day. A shortwave trough and associated vort max approaching the
region from our west Saturday night, will cross the area on Sunday.
A weak cold front will also drop south during the day Monday. None
of these features are expected to bring any rainfall to the area.
Westerly surface winds ahead of the cold front will result in a
down-sloping wind across the area. This, combined with compressional
heating, will allow gusty winds to develop. This will help warm
temperatures to near 70 degrees, with the warmest readings/higher
wind gusts across the western half of the area. For Monday
night/Tuesday, a vort max rounding the base of a Central Plains
trough will pass by to our north/east. This may generate enough
forcing for a few showers to develop. The models have come into
better agreement with this. Thus, showers were added to the
forecast for areas along/north of Interstate 20; this matches
well with surrounding offices.

For the middle to end of the week, a progressive shortwave trough
will cross the region and strengthen some as it crosses the Central
Plains by week`s end. A strong vort max in the base of the trough
will be crossing Arizona Thursday, which will dampen out as it
lifts east/northeast away from West Central Texas Friday, sending
a weak cold front south towards the area. Similar to earlier in
the week, compressional heating ahead of this front and a
southwest wind with its associated down-sloping effect, will again
warm temperatures for Christmas Day. Thus, highs near 70 degrees
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  35  54  42  60  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  36  58  42  63  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  36  58  40  60  42 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 192213
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
413 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PERSISTANT LOW CLOUD DECK AND FOG HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.  CLEARING LINE HAS ALMOST MADE IT TO
LBB AND WE MAY SEE BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE MOISTURE RACES EASTWARD
TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN. INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS EVENING PERHAPS THICKEST OUT WEST.  WITH FORECAST LOWS
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES...HAVE KEPT /THOUGH SHRUNK/
FZFG ACROSS PARMER/BAILEY/CASTRO COUNTIES TONIGHT.  INTO
SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO PUSH EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY THOUGH
REMAINING LONGEST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50.  WE
WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
MORNING...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW ON LEE SIDE OF ROCKIES FROM
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST FOR THE BEGINNING
OF LONGTERM. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH AXIS CENTERED TO OUR EAST PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATER MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA GIVEN
PROXIMITY TO HIGHER DEWPTS AND STEEPER PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS DROP TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES DIVES
SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MIDWEEK IS WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF BEGIN
TO DIVERGE. BOTH INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH AND VORTMAX ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GFS QUICKLY SHIFTS AND
FLATTENS THE TROUGH TO THE EAST RESULTING IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE
WEST FRIDAY...IN FACT THE ECMWF INDICATES A JETMAX MOVING ACROSS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY UPWARDS OF 120KTS AT 300MB...WHILE THE GFS POSITIONS THE
JET FARTHER NORTH INTO KANSAS AND IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. GFS SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH OTHER LONGTERM GUIDANCE LEANING
TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

EITHER WAY CHRISTMAS WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND POTENTIALLY WINDY AS WELL. THERES
PLENTY OF TIME TO WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO BUILD CONSENSUS AND HAMMER
OUT THE DETAILS FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NEXT
WEEK AND FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  53  28  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         30  53  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  53  34  59  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  54  35  60  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       32  53  36  61  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  54  35  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    32  54  37  62  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  49  37  57  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          33  52  39  60  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     36  53  39  60  40 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/55






000
FXUS64 KLUB 192213
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
413 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PERSISTANT LOW CLOUD DECK AND FOG HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.  CLEARING LINE HAS ALMOST MADE IT TO
LBB AND WE MAY SEE BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE MOISTURE RACES EASTWARD
TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN. INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS EVENING PERHAPS THICKEST OUT WEST.  WITH FORECAST LOWS
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES...HAVE KEPT /THOUGH SHRUNK/
FZFG ACROSS PARMER/BAILEY/CASTRO COUNTIES TONIGHT.  INTO
SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO PUSH EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY THOUGH
REMAINING LONGEST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50.  WE
WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
MORNING...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW ON LEE SIDE OF ROCKIES FROM
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST FOR THE BEGINNING
OF LONGTERM. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH AXIS CENTERED TO OUR EAST PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATER MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA GIVEN
PROXIMITY TO HIGHER DEWPTS AND STEEPER PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS DROP TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES DIVES
SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MIDWEEK IS WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF BEGIN
TO DIVERGE. BOTH INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH AND VORTMAX ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GFS QUICKLY SHIFTS AND
FLATTENS THE TROUGH TO THE EAST RESULTING IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE
WEST FRIDAY...IN FACT THE ECMWF INDICATES A JETMAX MOVING ACROSS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY UPWARDS OF 120KTS AT 300MB...WHILE THE GFS POSITIONS THE
JET FARTHER NORTH INTO KANSAS AND IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. GFS SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH OTHER LONGTERM GUIDANCE LEANING
TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

EITHER WAY CHRISTMAS WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND POTENTIALLY WINDY AS WELL. THERES
PLENTY OF TIME TO WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO BUILD CONSENSUS AND HAMMER
OUT THE DETAILS FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NEXT
WEEK AND FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  53  28  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         30  53  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  53  34  59  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  54  35  60  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       32  53  36  61  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  54  35  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    32  54  37  62  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  49  37  57  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          33  52  39  60  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     36  53  39  60  40 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/55





000
FXUS64 KSJT 192201
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
401 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...

(Tonight and Saturday)

The visible satellite imagery was showing stratus across much of the
northern 2/3 of West Central Texas. The southern 1/3 of the area is
mostly clear. Temperatures were cool due to mainly the low clouds,
with readings in the mid to upper 40s. However, Sonora has warmed
into the upper 50s.

For tonight, the main challenge will be how the low clouds set up.
The NAM and GFS models indicate moisture surging back to the west at
925 MB between the 06Z to 12Z time frame. Looks like the Big Country
will pretty much remain cloudy due to current satellite trends. Low
clouds will increase again across the remainder of the area,
especially along the I-10 corridor which is currently mostly clear.
A shallow cool airmass will result in temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 30s by Saturday morning.

For Saturday, expect widespread low clouds across much of the area
during the morning hours. There will be some breaks in the clouds by
the afternoon and possibly mostly sunny across the western 1/3 of
the area. Highs will be in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Friday)

Seasonably mild to warm temperatures will continue through Christmas
Day. A shortwave trough and associated vort max approaching the
region from our west Saturday night, will cross the area on Sunday.
A weak cold front will also drop south during the day Monday. None
of these features are expected to bring any rainfall to the area.
Westerly surface winds ahead of the cold front will result in a
down-sloping wind across the area. This, combined with compressional
heating, will allow gusty winds to develop. This will help warm
temperatures to near 70 degrees, with the warmest readings/higher
wind gusts across the western half of the area. For Monday
night/Tuesday, a vort max rounding the base of a Central Plains
trough will pass by to our north/east. This may generate enough
forcing for a few showers to develop. The models have come into
better agreement with this. Thus, showers were added to the
forecast for areas along/north of Interstate 20; this matches
well with surrounding offices.

For the middle to end of the week, a progressive shortwave trough
will cross the region and strengthen some as it crosses the Central
Plains by week`s end. A strong vort max in the base of the trough
will be crossing Arizona Thursday, which will dampen out as it
lifts east/northeast away from West Central Texas Friday, sending
a weak cold front south towards the area. Similar to earlier in
the week, compressional heating ahead of this front and a
southwest wind with its associated down-sloping effect, will again
warm temperatures for Christmas Day. Thus, highs near 70 degrees
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  35  54  42  60  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  36  58  42  63  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  36  58  40  60  42 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Huber/Doll





000
FXUS64 KSJT 192201
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
401 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...

(Tonight and Saturday)

The visible satellite imagery was showing stratus across much of the
northern 2/3 of West Central Texas. The southern 1/3 of the area is
mostly clear. Temperatures were cool due to mainly the low clouds,
with readings in the mid to upper 40s. However, Sonora has warmed
into the upper 50s.

For tonight, the main challenge will be how the low clouds set up.
The NAM and GFS models indicate moisture surging back to the west at
925 MB between the 06Z to 12Z time frame. Looks like the Big Country
will pretty much remain cloudy due to current satellite trends. Low
clouds will increase again across the remainder of the area,
especially along the I-10 corridor which is currently mostly clear.
A shallow cool airmass will result in temperatures falling into the
mid and upper 30s by Saturday morning.

For Saturday, expect widespread low clouds across much of the area
during the morning hours. There will be some breaks in the clouds by
the afternoon and possibly mostly sunny across the western 1/3 of
the area. Highs will be in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through Friday)

Seasonably mild to warm temperatures will continue through Christmas
Day. A shortwave trough and associated vort max approaching the
region from our west Saturday night, will cross the area on Sunday.
A weak cold front will also drop south during the day Monday. None
of these features are expected to bring any rainfall to the area.
Westerly surface winds ahead of the cold front will result in a
down-sloping wind across the area. This, combined with compressional
heating, will allow gusty winds to develop. This will help warm
temperatures to near 70 degrees, with the warmest readings/higher
wind gusts across the western half of the area. For Monday
night/Tuesday, a vort max rounding the base of a Central Plains
trough will pass by to our north/east. This may generate enough
forcing for a few showers to develop. The models have come into
better agreement with this. Thus, showers were added to the
forecast for areas along/north of Interstate 20; this matches
well with surrounding offices.

For the middle to end of the week, a progressive shortwave trough
will cross the region and strengthen some as it crosses the Central
Plains by week`s end. A strong vort max in the base of the trough
will be crossing Arizona Thursday, which will dampen out as it
lifts east/northeast away from West Central Texas Friday, sending
a weak cold front south towards the area. Similar to earlier in
the week, compressional heating ahead of this front and a
southwest wind with its associated down-sloping effect, will again
warm temperatures for Christmas Day. Thus, highs near 70 degrees
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  35  54  42  60  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  36  58  42  63  44 /   5   5   5   5   5
Junction  36  58  40  60  42 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Huber/Doll






000
FXUS64 KEWX 192146
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
346 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF 3 PM...SKIES WERE BEGINNING TO CLEAR UP ON THE ESCARPMENT
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 60S
IN THAT AREA WITH THE I35 CORRIDOR STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
WITH CLOUD COVER PERSISTENT. BELIEVE THIS GRADUAL SKY COVER TREND
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
MORNING TOMORROW.

A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND AND CLOUD COVER OFF THE ESCARPMENT WILL
PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. HOWEVER FROM
THE I35 CORRIDOR WEST...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND T OVER
VALUES OF -2 TO -6 WERE INDICATED IN MOS GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEKEND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS. OUR FIRST OF WHICH
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO BE A QUICK ONE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH TOO DRY OF AN AIR MASS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH SFC PRESSURE
IN PLACE WILL MAKE NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK
MOST LIKELY. OPTED TO DECREASE THE LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS
PERIOD DUE TO PRETTY SIGNIFICANT ENSEMBLE VARIATION LENDING TO THE
IDEA THAT THE GUIDANCE VALUES MAY NOT BE TOO ACCURATE. BUT WITH A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY KEEPING WINDS
AT A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...STRONG NORTHERLY 850 MB WINDS...AND A
DRY COLUMN...WOULD IMAGINE THE COLDER SIDE OF THE FENCE IS THE
BEST WAY TO LEAN FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CHRISTMAS DAY IS SHAPING UP TO LOOK QUITE PLEASANT...UNLESS YOU
WERE HOPING FOR COLD AND SNOWY. IT SHOULD BEGIN RATHER
CHILLY...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT CERTAINLY NOT SNOWY.
IN FACT...CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
THE 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH EACH MODEL
RUN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE THE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA BY SATURDAY...THE EURO DOESNT HAVE IT CLEARING
EWX UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS OF BOTH MODELS
BEGIN SIGNIFICANT CHRISTMAS DAY ON HANDLING THE NEXT POSSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHICH OUTCOME HOLDS MORE
WATER AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  56  43  60  48 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  56  41  59  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  56  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  54  39  58  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           47  60  45  63  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  54  39  58  47 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             38  59  44  62  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  57  42  61  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  57  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       45  57  44  61  49 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  58  45  62  49 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KEWX 192146
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
346 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF 3 PM...SKIES WERE BEGINNING TO CLEAR UP ON THE ESCARPMENT
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 60S
IN THAT AREA WITH THE I35 CORRIDOR STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
WITH CLOUD COVER PERSISTENT. BELIEVE THIS GRADUAL SKY COVER TREND
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
MORNING TOMORROW.

A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND AND CLOUD COVER OFF THE ESCARPMENT WILL
PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG. HOWEVER FROM
THE I35 CORRIDOR WEST...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND T OVER
VALUES OF -2 TO -6 WERE INDICATED IN MOS GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEKEND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIODS. OUR FIRST OF WHICH
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO BE A QUICK ONE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH TOO DRY OF AN AIR MASS SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH SFC PRESSURE
IN PLACE WILL MAKE NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK
MOST LIKELY. OPTED TO DECREASE THE LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS
PERIOD DUE TO PRETTY SIGNIFICANT ENSEMBLE VARIATION LENDING TO THE
IDEA THAT THE GUIDANCE VALUES MAY NOT BE TOO ACCURATE. BUT WITH A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY KEEPING WINDS
AT A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...STRONG NORTHERLY 850 MB WINDS...AND A
DRY COLUMN...WOULD IMAGINE THE COLDER SIDE OF THE FENCE IS THE
BEST WAY TO LEAN FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CHRISTMAS DAY IS SHAPING UP TO LOOK QUITE PLEASANT...UNLESS YOU
WERE HOPING FOR COLD AND SNOWY. IT SHOULD BEGIN RATHER
CHILLY...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT CERTAINLY NOT SNOWY.
IN FACT...CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
THE 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ARRIVE WITH EACH MODEL
RUN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE THE FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA BY SATURDAY...THE EURO DOESNT HAVE IT CLEARING
EWX UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS OF BOTH MODELS
BEGIN SIGNIFICANT CHRISTMAS DAY ON HANDLING THE NEXT POSSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHICH OUTCOME HOLDS MORE
WATER AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              47  56  43  60  48 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  46  56  41  59  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  56  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            43  54  39  58  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           47  60  45  63  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        45  54  39  58  47 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             38  59  44  62  46 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        46  57  42  61  46 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   49  57  44  61  48 /  -   -   -   10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       45  57  44  61  49 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           45  58  45  62  49 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KHGX 192132
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
332 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIP WILL BE PUSHING EWD AND OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS WITH DEPARTING UPPER TROF. SRN PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THEY WILL PROBABLY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT.

CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING HI/LOW TEMPS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE THIS WEEKEND. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 2000FT WITH VARYING DEGREES OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEKEND. NAM12 KEEPS A
PERSISTENT THIN CLOUD DECK IN PLACE THRU EARLY SUNDAY WHILE OTHERS
SHOW SOME CLEARING. PAST EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
ROUTE SEEMS TO VERIFY MUCH OF THE TIME IN THESE SCENARIOS SO WILL
HOLD ONTO MCLDY CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST THE AFTN HOURS SAT.
FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TWEAK WITH ESTABLISHED TRENDS.

ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES MON AS HIGH PRES EXITS TO THE EAST. WESTERN RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO MIDWEEK. PATTERN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.
WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST LOWISH POPS ALONG THIS FRONT CONSIDERING
LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN. DRY AND COOL WX THEN PERSISTS
INTO EARLY XMAS MORNING.

SFC HIGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE NW AND NCNTL GULF ON XMAS DAY.
WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SSW AND GRADIENT RAPIDLY TIGHTENS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST. WARMER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE FCST FOR XMAS DAY ALONG W/ INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AS GULF MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED BACK INLAND. NEXT FRONT PENCILEDIN
FOR LATE FRI NIGHT OR SAT MORNING. 47

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REACHING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THESE WILL RELAX SATURDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MARINE AREAS ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      47  56  46  59  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              49  58  46  60  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            51  57  52  59  52 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KAMA 192121
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING LASTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN/SHARPEN TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE LEE TROUGH SOME AREAS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED CHANCES OF FOG EITHER FORMING OR PERSISTING INTO THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW GIVEN DRIER WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH. CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO ONCE AGAIN LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED TOMORROW AND
IMPLICATIONS THAT MAY HAVE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST DOWNWARD FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOG MAY FORM ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND A DEEP TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IN
BETWEEN...MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS PATTERN IS VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW POTENTIALLY FORCING PERIODIC BRIEF
RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN OUR REGION AS WELL
AS MODEST COLD SURGES. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF THESE
PERTURBATIONS. FROM AN ENSEMBLE MEAN PERSPECTIVE INDIVIDUAL WAVES ARE
DAMPENED OUT EXCEPT FOR THE ONE THAT MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THIS
SEEMS TO BE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF NOTEABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES
THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE AND ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA POTENTIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY LATE MONDAY WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
MAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A CHALLENGE. WITH POST FRONTAL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SIGNIFICANT MOMENTUM ALOFT...AND AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL TO MIX INTO THAT...HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY FOLLOWED BY A VIGOROUS TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION BY FRIDAY. SURFACE RESPONSE SHOULD MAY BE FAIRLY DRAMATIC
WITH LEE TROUGH QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY MORPHING
INTO A BROAD SURFACE LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TYPICAL
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO EXIST AT THAT RANGE WITH THE
12Z ECMWF BEING MUCH DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
SO THERE SEEMS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A GRADIENT WIND EVENT BY AROUND
FRIDAY. SUBSEQUENTLY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRING COLDER AIR
BY SATURDAY.

BOWERS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE SLOWER TO ERODE THAN EXPECTED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMP GRIDS AS WELL AS SKY COVER AND
WINDS SLIGHTLY. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

ANDRADE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PREVAILING THEME OF THIS FCST CYCLE. EXPECT EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ANTICIPATED AT KAMA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY ERODE. A RETURN OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FORESEEN FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                30  51  29  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  27  52  30  55  32 /   0   0   5   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              24  52  24  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   5
BORGER TX                  32  50  31  58  36 /   0   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              26  53  25  60  32 /   0   0   0   0   5
CANYON TX                  31  52  29  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               31  48  33  56  33 /   5   5   5   0   5
DALHART TX                 24  52  21  58  30 /   0   0   0   0   5
GUYMON OK                  25  54  24  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                30  53  27  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                33  47  34  55  36 /   5   0   5   5   5
PAMPA TX                   32  47  31  52  33 /   5   0   5   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                37  46  35  52  35 /   5   5   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              37  45  36  53  36 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/17






000
FXUS64 KMAF 192114
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
314 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows low clouds have slowly eroded from southwest
to northeast today. This has kept afternoon temperatures on the
cool side, especially across the northern and eastern portions of
the Permian Basin where low clouds remain in place. Indications
are that fog and low clouds will again reestablish themselves
along and east of the Pecos River overnight. Thus, we have
included mention of areas of fog in the forecast for these
locations.

Overall, the entire forecast looks dry with moderate temperatures
for southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas through the period.
Surface low pressure along and east of the northern and central
portions of the Rockies will result in south to southwest surface
winds on Saturday with downslope westerly winds on Sunday and
Monday. The resulting warming trend will push high temperatures
into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Monday afternoon.

As a Northern Plains upper level storm system and associated low
pressure area slides into the Upper Midwest early Tuesday, we should
see a cool down as a cold front slides into our area Tuesday
morning.  Little or no precipitation is forecast with this system,
except perhaps over the extreme northeast portions of the Permian
Basin and Rolling Plains. However, with the progressive nature of
the northern stream, impacts from this cold front will be brief
and uneventful. A quick exit of this cooler air will bring another
warming trend to our area, with high temperatures near 70
expected on Christmas Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  56  36  63  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              36  55  40  64  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                27  56  29  67  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  44  58  43  67  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           38  60  40  68  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  52  35  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   29  54  31  63  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   25  58  24  61  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  56  37  64  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  57  37  64  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    32  61  33  69  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/03

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 192114
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
314 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery shows low clouds have slowly eroded from southwest
to northeast today. This has kept afternoon temperatures on the
cool side, especially across the northern and eastern portions of
the Permian Basin where low clouds remain in place. Indications
are that fog and low clouds will again reestablish themselves
along and east of the Pecos River overnight. Thus, we have
included mention of areas of fog in the forecast for these
locations.

Overall, the entire forecast looks dry with moderate temperatures
for southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas through the period.
Surface low pressure along and east of the northern and central
portions of the Rockies will result in south to southwest surface
winds on Saturday with downslope westerly winds on Sunday and
Monday. The resulting warming trend will push high temperatures
into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Monday afternoon.

As a Northern Plains upper level storm system and associated low
pressure area slides into the Upper Midwest early Tuesday, we should
see a cool down as a cold front slides into our area Tuesday
morning.  Little or no precipitation is forecast with this system,
except perhaps over the extreme northeast portions of the Permian
Basin and Rolling Plains. However, with the progressive nature of
the northern stream, impacts from this cold front will be brief
and uneventful. A quick exit of this cooler air will bring another
warming trend to our area, with high temperatures near 70
expected on Christmas Day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 35  56  36  63  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              36  55  40  64  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                27  56  29  67  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  44  58  43  67  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           38  60  40  68  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          32  52  35  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   29  54  31  63  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   25  58  24  61  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    36  56  37  64  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  57  37  64  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    32  61  33  69  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/03

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 192105
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

THE RAIN HAS COME TO AN END FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRY AIR
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS ENCROACHED UPON THE AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF THE COOL...MOIST AIR TRAPPED
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...SO EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. ONCE
REACHED...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
FOR THE DFW TERMINALS AND SLOWLY LIFT TO AROUND FL025 BY MIDDAY.
FOR KACT...IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A LOWERING OF
CIGS/VSBY IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THE DFW TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED THERE
AT THIS TIME.

WHILE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
SLOWLY VEER. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY...REQUIRING A CHANGE FROM NORTH FLOW
TO SOUTH FLOW FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES. THIS DIRECTIONAL CHANGE
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON FOR KACT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ONCE THEY DECREASE THIS
EVENING...A FLOW CHANGE COULD BE CONSIDERED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AJS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 192105
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1159 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

THE RAIN HAS COME TO AN END FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRY AIR
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS ENCROACHED UPON THE AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF THE COOL...MOIST AIR TRAPPED
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...SO EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. ONCE
REACHED...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
FOR THE DFW TERMINALS AND SLOWLY LIFT TO AROUND FL025 BY MIDDAY.
FOR KACT...IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A LOWERING OF
CIGS/VSBY IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THE DFW TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED THERE
AT THIS TIME.

WHILE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
SLOWLY VEER. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY...REQUIRING A CHANGE FROM NORTH FLOW
TO SOUTH FLOW FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES. THIS DIRECTIONAL CHANGE
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON FOR KACT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ONCE THEY DECREASE THIS
EVENING...A FLOW CHANGE COULD BE CONSIDERED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AJS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192103
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP BY
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY ON CHRISTMAS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW
LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR THE SUN BOWL NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE HAVE BROUGHT CLEARING SKIES
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE BORDERLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A FOGGY START THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY BUT THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH NO
RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED. SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED
BETWEEN STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE AND MID WEST TROUGH WITH
SUBSIDING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL ALSO INDUCE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE TO THE EAST RESULTING IN WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT INFLOW OF WARMER DRY AIR MASS WHICH COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WITH ADVECTION OF
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LOWERING TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES TO NEAR NORMAL. AIR MASS WILL ALSO LACK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ANY RAIN OR SNOW SO CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES CHRISTMAS/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF INDICATES A STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MAJOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WARM...DRY AND WINDY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS A SHALLOWER WEAKER SYSTEM WITH LESS WIND THURSDAY AND
LESS COOLING FRIDAY/SATURDAY. LATEST SUPER BLEND TAKES A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION INDICATING BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY MODERATE COOLING LATER PERIODS ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. SUN BOWL SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z- 21/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT040-050 THRU 03Z...THEN P6SM SCT-BKN200-250. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER 08KTS THROUGH PD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY BUT WITH A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES BRINGING DOWN SOME COOLER AIR ON OCCASION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING UP TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT A
LITTLE COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY BUT POSSIBLY COME WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 30S AND 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 30  55  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           30  55  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              27  54  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              26  52  29  57  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              18  34  23  42  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   27  50  30  57  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             27  46  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  25  53  28  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               25  52  29  57  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      33  53  36  59  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               26  56  28  60  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            29  57  32  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              31  48  34  55  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  28  56  30  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            26  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          30  53  34  58  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           21  52  23  58  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   25  53  28  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                28  53  32  59  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               27  52  31  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 24  44  29  50  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               20  42  25  48  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                23  42  26  49  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 23  45  27  52  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               27  48  31  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               23  52  25  58  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            23  46  27  53  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  25  48  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   21  52  25  58  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              18  48  21  56  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 28  47  31  55  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  25  55  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 22  54  26  59  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          23  55  26  61  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              26  54  29  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192103
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP BY
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY ON CHRISTMAS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW
LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR THE SUN BOWL NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE HAVE BROUGHT CLEARING SKIES
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE BORDERLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A FOGGY START THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY BUT THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH NO
RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED. SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED
BETWEEN STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE AND MID WEST TROUGH WITH
SUBSIDING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL ALSO INDUCE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE TO THE EAST RESULTING IN WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT INFLOW OF WARMER DRY AIR MASS WHICH COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WITH ADVECTION OF
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LOWERING TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES TO NEAR NORMAL. AIR MASS WILL ALSO LACK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ANY RAIN OR SNOW SO CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES CHRISTMAS/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF INDICATES A STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MAJOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WARM...DRY AND WINDY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS A SHALLOWER WEAKER SYSTEM WITH LESS WIND THURSDAY AND
LESS COOLING FRIDAY/SATURDAY. LATEST SUPER BLEND TAKES A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION INDICATING BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY MODERATE COOLING LATER PERIODS ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. SUN BOWL SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z- 21/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT040-050 THRU 03Z...THEN P6SM SCT-BKN200-250. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER 08KTS THROUGH PD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY BUT WITH A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES BRINGING DOWN SOME COOLER AIR ON OCCASION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING UP TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT A
LITTLE COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY BUT POSSIBLY COME WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 30S AND 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 30  55  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           30  55  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              27  54  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              26  52  29  57  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              18  34  23  42  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   27  50  30  57  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             27  46  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  25  53  28  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               25  52  29  57  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      33  53  36  59  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               26  56  28  60  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            29  57  32  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              31  48  34  55  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  28  56  30  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            26  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          30  53  34  58  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           21  52  23  58  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   25  53  28  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                28  53  32  59  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               27  52  31  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 24  44  29  50  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               20  42  25  48  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                23  42  26  49  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 23  45  27  52  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               27  48  31  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               23  52  25  58  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            23  46  27  53  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  25  48  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   21  52  25  58  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              18  48  21  56  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 28  47  31  55  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  25  55  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 22  54  26  59  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          23  55  26  61  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              26  54  29  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192103
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP BY
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY ON CHRISTMAS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW
LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR THE SUN BOWL NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE HAVE BROUGHT CLEARING SKIES
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE BORDERLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A FOGGY START THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY BUT THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH NO
RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED. SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED
BETWEEN STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE AND MID WEST TROUGH WITH
SUBSIDING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL ALSO INDUCE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE TO THE EAST RESULTING IN WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT INFLOW OF WARMER DRY AIR MASS WHICH COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WITH ADVECTION OF
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LOWERING TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES TO NEAR NORMAL. AIR MASS WILL ALSO LACK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ANY RAIN OR SNOW SO CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES CHRISTMAS/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF INDICATES A STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MAJOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WARM...DRY AND WINDY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS A SHALLOWER WEAKER SYSTEM WITH LESS WIND THURSDAY AND
LESS COOLING FRIDAY/SATURDAY. LATEST SUPER BLEND TAKES A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION INDICATING BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY MODERATE COOLING LATER PERIODS ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. SUN BOWL SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z- 21/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT040-050 THRU 03Z...THEN P6SM SCT-BKN200-250. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER 08KTS THROUGH PD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY BUT WITH A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES BRINGING DOWN SOME COOLER AIR ON OCCASION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING UP TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT A
LITTLE COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY BUT POSSIBLY COME WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 30S AND 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 30  55  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           30  55  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              27  54  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              26  52  29  57  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              18  34  23  42  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   27  50  30  57  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             27  46  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  25  53  28  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               25  52  29  57  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      33  53  36  59  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               26  56  28  60  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            29  57  32  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              31  48  34  55  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  28  56  30  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            26  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          30  53  34  58  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           21  52  23  58  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   25  53  28  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                28  53  32  59  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               27  52  31  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 24  44  29  50  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               20  42  25  48  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                23  42  26  49  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 23  45  27  52  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               27  48  31  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               23  52  25  58  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            23  46  27  53  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  25  48  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   21  52  25  58  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              18  48  21  56  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 28  47  31  55  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  25  55  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 22  54  26  59  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          23  55  26  61  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              26  54  29  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192103
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP BY
CHRISTMAS DAY WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY ON CHRISTMAS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW
LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR THE SUN BOWL NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE HAVE BROUGHT CLEARING SKIES
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE BORDERLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A FOGGY START THIS MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY BUT THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH NO
RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED. SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED
BETWEEN STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE AND MID WEST TROUGH WITH
SUBSIDING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL ALSO INDUCE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE TO THE EAST RESULTING IN WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT INFLOW OF WARMER DRY AIR MASS WHICH COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WITH ADVECTION OF
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LOWERING TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES TO NEAR NORMAL. AIR MASS WILL ALSO LACK
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ANY RAIN OR SNOW SO CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES CHRISTMAS/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF INDICATES A STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH MAJOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WARM...DRY AND WINDY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE GFS HAS A SHALLOWER WEAKER SYSTEM WITH LESS WIND THURSDAY AND
LESS COOLING FRIDAY/SATURDAY. LATEST SUPER BLEND TAKES A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION INDICATING BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY FOLLOWED
BY MODERATE COOLING LATER PERIODS ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN/MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. SUN BOWL SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z- 21/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT040-050 THRU 03Z...THEN P6SM SCT-BKN200-250. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER 08KTS THROUGH PD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY BUT WITH A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES BRINGING DOWN SOME COOLER AIR ON OCCASION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING UP TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT A
LITTLE COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY BUT POSSIBLY COME WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 30S AND 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 30  55  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           30  55  32  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              27  54  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              26  52  29  57  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              18  34  23  42  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   27  50  30  57  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             27  46  30  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  25  53  28  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               25  52  29  57  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      33  53  36  59  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               26  56  28  60  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            29  57  32  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              31  48  34  55  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  28  56  30  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            26  54  29  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          30  53  34  58  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           21  52  23  58  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   25  53  28  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                28  53  32  59  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               27  52  31  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 24  44  29  50  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               20  42  25  48  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                23  42  26  49  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 23  45  27  52  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               27  48  31  56  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               23  52  25  58  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            23  46  27  53  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  25  48  29  55  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   21  52  25  58  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              18  48  21  56  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 28  47  31  55  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  25  55  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 22  54  26  59  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          23  55  26  61  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              26  54  29  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KCRP 192102
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
302 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED OFF THE COAST TODAY TAKING THE PRECIP WITH IT. ISOLD -SHRA`S
CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SOME EROSION OF CLOUDS HAS TAKEN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID SECTIONS OF S TX...HOWEVER LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MODELS PROG LIGHT PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW RELATIVELY DRIER
NEAR SFC LAYER. IF FOG DOES DVLP...VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST 5SM OR BETTER...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FCST. WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20KT THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7FT. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z
SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY BE BELOW ADVISORY BY AROUND 12Z BUT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. MODELS KEEP CLOUDS IN THE
FCST THRU SAT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING OVC CONDITIONS. WENT WITH
PC ACROSS THE W TO MC SKIES ACROSS THE E. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP HIGHS ON
SAT FROM GETTING OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS THE NRN CWA. BY SAT
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN WITH OVERRUNNING
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING INITIALLY ACROSS COASTAL WATERS SAT EVENING
THEN SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WARMING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...CAA AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
MN TEMPS SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FCST.  A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN WITH MOSTLY
ABV NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WK.  WK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH AXIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT WATERS.  BY
SUNDAY EVENING...THE S/WV TROUGH AXIS WL HAVE PASSED EAST AND USHER
IN DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE CWA.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND S/SW FLOW ON MONDAY...AFTN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S IN
MOST AREAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
BREEZY/SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT.  SFC AND UPR
LVL RIDGING WL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...
KEEPING A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AND AGAIN ON NEXT FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  60  50  63  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
VICTORIA          48  59  45  62  47  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            50  62  50  66  51  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             50  60  49  64  50  /  10  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          50  58  51  62  53  /  10  10  20  30  10
COTULLA           46  60  45  64  48  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        51  60  50  64  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       54  60  52  62  55  /  10  10  20  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 192102
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
302 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...A COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED OFF THE COAST TODAY TAKING THE PRECIP WITH IT. ISOLD -SHRA`S
CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. SOME EROSION OF CLOUDS HAS TAKEN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID SECTIONS OF S TX...HOWEVER LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MODELS PROG LIGHT PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW RELATIVELY DRIER
NEAR SFC LAYER. IF FOG DOES DVLP...VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST 5SM OR BETTER...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FCST. WINDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20KT THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 7FT. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z
SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY BE BELOW ADVISORY BY AROUND 12Z BUT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. MODELS KEEP CLOUDS IN THE
FCST THRU SAT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING OVC CONDITIONS. WENT WITH
PC ACROSS THE W TO MC SKIES ACROSS THE E. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP HIGHS ON
SAT FROM GETTING OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS THE NRN CWA. BY SAT
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN WITH OVERRUNNING
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING INITIALLY ACROSS COASTAL WATERS SAT EVENING
THEN SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WARMING JUST ABOVE THE SFC...CAA AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM LEADING TO SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
MN TEMPS SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FCST.  A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN WITH MOSTLY
ABV NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WK.  WK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH AXIS MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ON SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT WATERS.  BY
SUNDAY EVENING...THE S/WV TROUGH AXIS WL HAVE PASSED EAST AND USHER
IN DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE CWA.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND S/SW FLOW ON MONDAY...AFTN HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 70S IN
MOST AREAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
BREEZY/SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LKLY BEHIND THIS FRONT.  SFC AND UPR
LVL RIDGING WL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...
KEEPING A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AND AGAIN ON NEXT FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  60  50  63  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
VICTORIA          48  59  45  62  47  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            50  62  50  66  51  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             50  60  49  64  50  /  10  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          50  58  51  62  53  /  10  10  20  30  10
COTULLA           46  60  45  64  48  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        51  60  50  64  51  /  10  10  20  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       54  60  52  62  55  /  10  10  20  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KBRO 192027
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...CURRENTLY THE SATELLITE
AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW ALREADY A NORTHERLY WIND OVER THE RANCHLANDS
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON THE NORTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
15 MPH AND LOWER CEILINGS GRADUALLY RISING. AS DRY AIR KEEPS
FILTERING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES MORE CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST AND
MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WEST. THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS VERY LOW AS
DRY AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY
REMAIN LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
ENHANCE OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT BY THIS EVENING NO ADDITIONAL RAIN
IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE TROUGH WILL BUILD MAINTAINING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A BIT COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA. THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID TO LOW 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHILE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME BREAK IN THE CLOUDS COULD SEE MID TO UPPER
40S. DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN THE AIR...LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY. INTO SATURDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS MEXICO HELPING
SHIFT EAST THE HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
NE BY MID MORNING AND RETURN TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT MAINLY KEEPING A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP NO MORE
THAN MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ONSHORE FLOW SURGING
DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO RETURN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LEFT INHERITED 30 PERCENT AT
THIS TIME WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
BE ALMOST THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH THICKNESS VALUES REMAINING
ALMOST STEADY OVER THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA
SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD THURSDAY TO PROVIDE RELATIVELY WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
INCREASE WINDS AND BUILD SEAS DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. A
SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THIS HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. IT IS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH LOWERING SEAS AND WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHEAST TO EAST AS A WEAK BOUNDARY LIFT NORTHWARD.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUES AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TUES MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  55  64  56  65 /  10  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          54  67  54  65 /  10  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            51  65  53  64 /  10  10  30  30
MCALLEN              54  65  53  65 /  10  10  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      52  64  51  67 /  10  10  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   58  65  58  66 /  10  20  30  40
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61/BILLINGS






000
FXUS64 KBRO 192027
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...CURRENTLY THE SATELLITE
AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW ALREADY A NORTHERLY WIND OVER THE RANCHLANDS
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON THE NORTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
15 MPH AND LOWER CEILINGS GRADUALLY RISING. AS DRY AIR KEEPS
FILTERING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES MORE CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST AND
MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WEST. THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS VERY LOW AS
DRY AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY
REMAIN LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
ENHANCE OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT BY THIS EVENING NO ADDITIONAL RAIN
IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE TROUGH WILL BUILD MAINTAINING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A BIT COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA. THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID TO LOW 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHILE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME BREAK IN THE CLOUDS COULD SEE MID TO UPPER
40S. DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN THE AIR...LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY. INTO SATURDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS MEXICO HELPING
SHIFT EAST THE HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
NE BY MID MORNING AND RETURN TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT MAINLY KEEPING A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP NO MORE
THAN MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ONSHORE FLOW SURGING
DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO RETURN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LEFT INHERITED 30 PERCENT AT
THIS TIME WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
BE ALMOST THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH THICKNESS VALUES REMAINING
ALMOST STEADY OVER THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA
SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD THURSDAY TO PROVIDE RELATIVELY WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
INCREASE WINDS AND BUILD SEAS DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. A
SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THIS HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. IT IS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH LOWERING SEAS AND WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHEAST TO EAST AS A WEAK BOUNDARY LIFT NORTHWARD.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUES AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TUES MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  55  64  56  65 /  10  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          54  67  54  65 /  10  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            51  65  53  64 /  10  10  30  30
MCALLEN              54  65  53  65 /  10  10  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      52  64  51  67 /  10  10  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   58  65  58  66 /  10  20  30  40
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61/BILLINGS





000
FXUS64 KAMA 191820 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1220 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE SLOWER TO ERODE THAN EXPECTED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMP GRIDS AS WELL AS SKY COVER AND
WINDS SLIGHTLY. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PREVAILING THEME OF THIS FCST CYCLE. EXPECT EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ANTICIPATED AT KAMA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY ERODE. A RETURN OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FORESEEN FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 191820 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1220 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE SLOWER TO ERODE THAN EXPECTED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMP GRIDS AS WELL AS SKY COVER AND
WINDS SLIGHTLY. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PREVAILING THEME OF THIS FCST CYCLE. EXPECT EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ANTICIPATED AT KAMA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY ERODE. A RETURN OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FORESEEN FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 191820 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1220 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE SLOWER TO ERODE THAN EXPECTED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMP GRIDS AS WELL AS SKY COVER AND
WINDS SLIGHTLY. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PREVAILING THEME OF THIS FCST CYCLE. EXPECT EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ANTICIPATED AT KAMA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY ERODE. A RETURN OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FORESEEN FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 191820 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1220 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE SLOWER TO ERODE THAN EXPECTED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMP GRIDS AS WELL AS SKY COVER AND
WINDS SLIGHTLY. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PREVAILING THEME OF THIS FCST CYCLE. EXPECT EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ANTICIPATED AT KAMA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY ERODE. A RETURN OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FORESEEN FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLUB 191817
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH FIRST FEW HOURS OF FCST AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW TERMINALS.
WRN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAS JUST MOVED E OF NM/TX STATE LINE
AND ANTICIPATE IT TO REACH KPVW/KLBB AROUND 20Z WITH CIGS/VSBYS
QUICKLY PUSHING THROUGH MVFR TO VFR. HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF FCST AT KCDS WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR
LEVELS AT LBB AND PVW BY MID AFTN...HOWEVER CDS SHOWS LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF LIFTING BEYOND MVFR BY THAT TIME. OCNL MVFR CIGS AT
CDS ALREADY FROM -RA SHOULD UNDOUBTEDLY REVERT TO IFR IN A FEW
HOURS AFTER PRECIP DEPARTS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SWIFT MOVING
IMPULSE.

BY LATE THIS EVNG...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT LOW CIGS WILL
EXPAND WEST ATOP THE LBB AND PVW AIRSPACES. PREFERRED MODELS IN
THIS MOIST SETUP FAVOR IFR DECKS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LOW VISBYS FROM FOG AND FREEZING FOG.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MAKING A STEADY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR FT SUMNER/NM AT 09Z. SATELLITE
TRENDS REVEAL THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY EXIT OUR ERN ZONES BY 15Z OR SO...SO POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED
BACK MARKEDLY THEREAFTER WITH NO PRECIP MENTION BY LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY CONCERNS THE FIELD OF STRATUS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPS. WEAK FLOW AT THE
SURFACE IN THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR LOW CLOUDS REMAINING INTACT FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER
COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
TO MIX EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SIDED WITH THE REALISTIC-
LOOKING NAM WHICH KEEPS STRATUS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ALL AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WERE THEREFORE
NUDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONSALL.

ONCE DAYTIME MIXING CEASES WEST OF THE STRATUS...CLOUDS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL EXPANSION WESTWARD AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING OOZES
WEST. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ADVANCING STRATUS WOULD SEEM THE
MOST FAVORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME ICE
DEPOSITION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A BROAD MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY. MIN TEMPS FROM THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS
LOOK VERY MUCH ON PAR IN THIS FOGGY AND MOIST PATTERN WHICH AFTER
ALL WAS THE STORY NEARLY EVERY DAY LAST WEEK.

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS A PRETTY GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST SKIES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLEAR RESULTING IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY HOWEVER AS MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEAVING OUR AREA WITH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A SECOND PUSH OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY
AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DRY PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 10
KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SO WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LACKING RIGHT NOW AND
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE GFS
WANTS TO DEVELOP A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. SUPERBLEND
FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND OPTED TO BUMP UP TEMPS 2-3
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DEVELOPS THIS INTO A
CLOSED LOW. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNTOUCHED
FROM SUPERBLEND AS WE SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  26  53  26  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  29  54  30  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     46  31  54  32  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  29  54  30  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  30  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  31  54  32  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  31  54  33  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  35  53  37  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  34  53  37  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  36  54  39  60 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02/99/99





000
FXUS64 KBRO 191807
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1207 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE FRONT ITS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY
AS SEEING ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE NW
TO N WITH LOWERING TEMPS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING A BIT BUT EXPECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TO RISE 2500 FEET. HOWEVER...AROUND MIDNIGHT CEILINGS WILL RETURN
TO LOWER MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INTO SATURDAY...THE
CEILINGS IMPROVE WITH NORTH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING NE/E BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND CLOUD DECK BREAKING AS DRY
AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING
AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES EXTENDING FROM CORPUS TO HOUSTON. AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
RETURNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LESS.
BETTER CHANCE STILL REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TX PROVIDING
LIFT ALOFT AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED LGT ELEVATED SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN AFTER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...CIGS WILL BE LIMITING BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MUCH OF THE DAY BECAUSE OF OVERRUNNING. SOME VSBY
REDUCTION IN MORNING FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LWR VALLEY WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH LATER TODAY AS
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS PROVIDING SOME
LIFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE KBRO CWA
TO WORK WITH... WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 KFT AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIPS BY OVER HEAD...AND ALREADY SEEING
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
IN THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON HIGH PRESS AND NORTH
WINDS. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LIE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEFT TO
THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
OVERRUNNING...AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER...OR IVO THE RIO GRANDE.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EVEN AS THE
MID LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHWEST CAPPING FLOW AT H7...OR 10 KFT...WILL
SEE TO THAT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 50 AT KBRO AND KSPI.
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...OR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL THUS NOT REALLY ALLOW FOR A CLEARING OUT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL S/W
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURE THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH CHANCES WANING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND S/W TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DRY AIR WORKS IN ON WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HEART OF THE NATION
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM SO HAVE EDGED WINDS
UP WHILE NUDGING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY. HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS MOISTURE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST PRECIPITATION THERE. SURFACE RIDGING WORKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NEXT S/W
TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. WAA AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS JUMPING
UP TO THE MIDDLE 70S... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES... AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN TO FRESH OR STRONG NORTH LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN WITH A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WHEN NORTH WINDS ON THE GULF WILL APPROACH 20 KTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO JUST SHY OF SEVEN FEET. THUS...A FEW HOURS OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS SETTLING
DOWN THE REST OF SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE SEAS AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61






000
FXUS64 KBRO 191807
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1207 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE FRONT ITS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE LOWER VALLEY
AS SEEING ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE NW
TO N WITH LOWERING TEMPS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING A BIT BUT EXPECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TO RISE 2500 FEET. HOWEVER...AROUND MIDNIGHT CEILINGS WILL RETURN
TO LOWER MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INTO SATURDAY...THE
CEILINGS IMPROVE WITH NORTH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING NE/E BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND CLOUD DECK BREAKING AS DRY
AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING
AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES EXTENDING FROM CORPUS TO HOUSTON. AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
RETURNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LESS.
BETTER CHANCE STILL REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TX PROVIDING
LIFT ALOFT AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED LGT ELEVATED SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN AFTER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...CIGS WILL BE LIMITING BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MUCH OF THE DAY BECAUSE OF OVERRUNNING. SOME VSBY
REDUCTION IN MORNING FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LWR VALLEY WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH LATER TODAY AS
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS PROVIDING SOME
LIFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE KBRO CWA
TO WORK WITH... WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 KFT AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIPS BY OVER HEAD...AND ALREADY SEEING
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
IN THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON HIGH PRESS AND NORTH
WINDS. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LIE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEFT TO
THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
OVERRUNNING...AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER...OR IVO THE RIO GRANDE.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EVEN AS THE
MID LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHWEST CAPPING FLOW AT H7...OR 10 KFT...WILL
SEE TO THAT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 50 AT KBRO AND KSPI.
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...OR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL THUS NOT REALLY ALLOW FOR A CLEARING OUT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL S/W
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURE THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH CHANCES WANING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND S/W TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DRY AIR WORKS IN ON WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HEART OF THE NATION
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM SO HAVE EDGED WINDS
UP WHILE NUDGING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY. HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS MOISTURE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST PRECIPITATION THERE. SURFACE RIDGING WORKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NEXT S/W
TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. WAA AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS JUMPING
UP TO THE MIDDLE 70S... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES... AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN TO FRESH OR STRONG NORTH LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN WITH A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WHEN NORTH WINDS ON THE GULF WILL APPROACH 20 KTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO JUST SHY OF SEVEN FEET. THUS...A FEW HOURS OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS SETTLING
DOWN THE REST OF SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE SEAS AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61







000
FXUS64 KEWX 191803 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1203 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN BE OBSERVED ON THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING. THE BREAKS WILL BRING
SOME TEMPORARY VFR SKIES TO THE REGION INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH CONTINUED HEATING...SUSPECT MVFR CIGS WILL FILL IN BY MID-
AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH VFR CONTINUING OUT WEST
AT KDRT. WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR...BUT
LOWER THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CLOUD BASES CONTINUE
TO LOWER INTO IFR AS SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIFR CIGS AT KSAT AFTER 10Z.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BEGINNING MID-MORNING ON
SATURDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVING
IN BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING MUCH SUNLIGHT.
AREAS OUT WEST NEAR DEL RIO SHOULD SEE THE SUN POKE THROUGH THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT ITLL BE TOUGH ELSEWHERE.

THEREFORE...POP/WX LOWERING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
CLEARING OUT OF ALL POP MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR HOURLY
T/TD GRID TWEAKS TO BLEND TO LATEST OBS BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. HAVE REMOVED POPS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT FOR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE HI-RES MODELS INDICATED LIGHT RAIN. HAVE ALSO REDUCED
POPS FOR PARTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. FINALLY...HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SPEED OF SYSTEM. REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  20  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  20  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 191803 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1203 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER CAN BE OBSERVED ON THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING. THE BREAKS WILL BRING
SOME TEMPORARY VFR SKIES TO THE REGION INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH CONTINUED HEATING...SUSPECT MVFR CIGS WILL FILL IN BY MID-
AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH VFR CONTINUING OUT WEST
AT KDRT. WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THIS
EVENING...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR...BUT
LOWER THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CLOUD BASES CONTINUE
TO LOWER INTO IFR AS SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIFR CIGS AT KSAT AFTER 10Z.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BEGINNING MID-MORNING ON
SATURDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVING
IN BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING MUCH SUNLIGHT.
AREAS OUT WEST NEAR DEL RIO SHOULD SEE THE SUN POKE THROUGH THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT ITLL BE TOUGH ELSEWHERE.

THEREFORE...POP/WX LOWERING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
CLEARING OUT OF ALL POP MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR HOURLY
T/TD GRID TWEAKS TO BLEND TO LATEST OBS BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

TB3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. HAVE REMOVED POPS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT FOR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE HI-RES MODELS INDICATED LIGHT RAIN. HAVE ALSO REDUCED
POPS FOR PARTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. FINALLY...HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SPEED OF SYSTEM. REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  20  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  20  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KFWD 191759
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1159 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...

THE RAIN HAS COME TO AN END FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRY AIR
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS ENCROACHED UPON THE AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF THE COOL...MOIST AIR TRAPPED
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...SO EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. ONCE
REACHED...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
FOR THE DFW TERMINALS AND SLOWLY LIFT TO AROUND FL025 BY MIDDAY.
FOR KACT...IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A LOWERING OF
CIGS/VSBY IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THE DFW TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED THERE
AT THIS TIME.

WHILE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
SLOWLY VEER. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY...REQUIRING A CHANGE FROM NORTH FLOW
TO SOUTH FLOW FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES. THIS DIRECTIONAL CHANGE
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON FOR KACT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ONCE THEY DECREASE THIS
EVENING...A FLOW CHANGE COULD BE CONSIDERED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AJS

&&

.UPDATE...

UPDATING THIS MORNING TO REMOVE POPS WEST OF I-35 AND TO SCALE
POPS BACK AND REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS TX. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATE.

MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRONG INVERSION AROUND
900MB WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED SO CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGED MADE.

WILEY



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  50   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  30   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  20   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 191759
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1159 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...

THE RAIN HAS COME TO AN END FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRY AIR
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS ENCROACHED UPON THE AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF THE COOL...MOIST AIR TRAPPED
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...SO EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. ONCE
REACHED...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
FOR THE DFW TERMINALS AND SLOWLY LIFT TO AROUND FL025 BY MIDDAY.
FOR KACT...IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A LOWERING OF
CIGS/VSBY IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THE DFW TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED THERE
AT THIS TIME.

WHILE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
SLOWLY VEER. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY...REQUIRING A CHANGE FROM NORTH FLOW
TO SOUTH FLOW FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES. THIS DIRECTIONAL CHANGE
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON FOR KACT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ONCE THEY DECREASE THIS
EVENING...A FLOW CHANGE COULD BE CONSIDERED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AJS

&&

.UPDATE...

UPDATING THIS MORNING TO REMOVE POPS WEST OF I-35 AND TO SCALE
POPS BACK AND REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS TX. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATE.

MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRONG INVERSION AROUND
900MB WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED SO CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGED MADE.

WILEY



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  50   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  30   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  20   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 191759
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1159 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...

THE RAIN HAS COME TO AN END FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRY AIR
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS ENCROACHED UPON THE AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF THE COOL...MOIST AIR TRAPPED
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...SO EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. ONCE
REACHED...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
FOR THE DFW TERMINALS AND SLOWLY LIFT TO AROUND FL025 BY MIDDAY.
FOR KACT...IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A LOWERING OF
CIGS/VSBY IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THE DFW TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED THERE
AT THIS TIME.

WHILE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
SLOWLY VEER. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY...REQUIRING A CHANGE FROM NORTH FLOW
TO SOUTH FLOW FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES. THIS DIRECTIONAL CHANGE
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON FOR KACT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ONCE THEY DECREASE THIS
EVENING...A FLOW CHANGE COULD BE CONSIDERED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AJS

&&

.UPDATE...

UPDATING THIS MORNING TO REMOVE POPS WEST OF I-35 AND TO SCALE
POPS BACK AND REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS TX. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATE.

MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRONG INVERSION AROUND
900MB WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED SO CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGED MADE.

WILEY



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  50   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  30   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  20   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 191759
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1159 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...

THE RAIN HAS COME TO AN END FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRY AIR
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE HAS ENCROACHED UPON THE AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS
WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND BECAUSE OF THE COOL...MOIST AIR TRAPPED
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...SO EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES. ONCE
REACHED...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
FOR THE DFW TERMINALS AND SLOWLY LIFT TO AROUND FL025 BY MIDDAY.
FOR KACT...IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL RETURN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A LOWERING OF
CIGS/VSBY IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THE DFW TAF SITES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED THERE
AT THIS TIME.

WHILE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
SLOWLY VEER. BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY...REQUIRING A CHANGE FROM NORTH FLOW
TO SOUTH FLOW FOR THE DFW METRO TAF SITES. THIS DIRECTIONAL CHANGE
WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON FOR KACT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ONCE THEY DECREASE THIS
EVENING...A FLOW CHANGE COULD BE CONSIDERED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AJS

&&

.UPDATE...

UPDATING THIS MORNING TO REMOVE POPS WEST OF I-35 AND TO SCALE
POPS BACK AND REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS TX. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATE.

MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRONG INVERSION AROUND
900MB WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED SO CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGED MADE.

WILEY



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  50   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  30   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  20   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KMAF 191757 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1157 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Will update the public products to remove morning wording (remove
mention of fog).

updated products to be sent shortly.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
IFR conditions at KINK, KHOB, KMAF should become VFR by early
this afternoon. VFR conditions with clear skies are expected
at all west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals this
afternoon through much of tonight. TEMPO MVFR conditions in fog
is expected to redevelop late tonight at KHOB and KINK with
prevailing IFR conditions at KMAF developing by 06z tonight.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  35  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  36  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  27  58  32  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  38  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  32  52  35  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  29  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   57  25  58  26  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  36  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  36  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  32  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191757 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1157 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Will update the public products to remove morning wording (remove
mention of fog).

updated products to be sent shortly.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
IFR conditions at KINK, KHOB, KMAF should become VFR by early
this afternoon. VFR conditions with clear skies are expected
at all west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals this
afternoon through much of tonight. TEMPO MVFR conditions in fog
is expected to redevelop late tonight at KHOB and KINK with
prevailing IFR conditions at KMAF developing by 06z tonight.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  35  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  36  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  27  58  32  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  38  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  32  52  35  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  29  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   57  25  58  26  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  36  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  36  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  32  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191757 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1157 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Will update the public products to remove morning wording (remove
mention of fog).

updated products to be sent shortly.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
IFR conditions at KINK, KHOB, KMAF should become VFR by early
this afternoon. VFR conditions with clear skies are expected
at all west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals this
afternoon through much of tonight. TEMPO MVFR conditions in fog
is expected to redevelop late tonight at KHOB and KINK with
prevailing IFR conditions at KMAF developing by 06z tonight.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  35  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  36  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  27  58  32  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  38  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  32  52  35  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  29  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   57  25  58  26  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  36  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  36  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  32  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191757 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1157 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Will update the public products to remove morning wording (remove
mention of fog).

updated products to be sent shortly.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
IFR conditions at KINK, KHOB, KMAF should become VFR by early
this afternoon. VFR conditions with clear skies are expected
at all west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals this
afternoon through much of tonight. TEMPO MVFR conditions in fog
is expected to redevelop late tonight at KHOB and KINK with
prevailing IFR conditions at KMAF developing by 06z tonight.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  35  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  36  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  27  58  32  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  38  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  32  52  35  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  29  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   57  25  58  26  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  36  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  36  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  32  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 191753 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1153 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PREVAILING THEME OF THIS FCST CYCLE. EXPECT EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ANTICIPATED AT KAMA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY ERODE. A RETURN OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FORESEEN FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 191753 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1153 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PREVAILING THEME OF THIS FCST CYCLE. EXPECT EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
ANTICIPATED AT KAMA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY ERODE. A RETURN OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS FORESEEN FOR
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 191749
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1149 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Look for challenging flight weather conditions for much of the
next 24 hours. Conditions will likely improve to VFR this
afternoon; nevertheless, stratus will redevelop this evening. The
NAM and GFS return conditions to IFR by 12Z at all but the Abilene
terminal. However, confidence for IFR conditions returning isn`t
high; rather, MVFR beginning at 02Z looks best.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Have updated the grids to reflect current trends in radar and
satellite imagery. Lift associated with the upper level low
continues to move northeast away from our CWA, and dry air aloft
also continues to advect in from the southwest over the area,
pointing toward precipitation ending across the area for the most
part. Will keep a slight chance of showers for eastern areas
through the rest of the this morning, as spotty showers will still
be possible, generally east of a Haskell, to Abilene, to Junction
line. Have removed all mention of precipitation for the afternoon.
Updated text products will be out soon. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Initially poor conditions should gradually improve throughout the
day. IFR to LIFR conditions, mainly due to low CIGS, are prevalent
across the area this morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
are moving out of the area, and are likely to end for the most
part before noon today. However, behind a cold front today, low
clouds are expected to persist at least into the early afternoon
hours, while gradually lifting to MVFR. Have kept a brief period
of VFR conditions in the TAFs for this afternoon and early
evening. With the cold air mass still in place tonight, we could
see these low clouds redevelop after 00Z, so have brought MVFR
CIGS back into the forecast after 00Z tonight at all sites. Winds
will remain generally northeast today, while slowly veering to the
east or southeast tonight. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms are
currently affecting areas mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo
to Junction line. A cold front is making progress southward
resulting in cooler/drier air and northeast winds of around 10
mph. The cold front as of 3 AM was moving through the I-10
corridor area. The upper level trough/low bringing the large scale
lift into the area was centered near the TX/NM border northwest of
Lubbock, with much drier air rotating around the southern end of
the cyclonic flow into our forecast area. This trough will
continue moving east/northeast today. The drier air is showing its
effects in our southwestern counties already where precipitation
looks to be over. With the best lift/moisture moving northeast
today, have adjusted PoPs downward after 12Z this morning,
especially for our southwestern counties. We may see lingering
scattered activity this morning generally north and east of a
Sterling City to Ballinger to Junction line, and then an end to
most of the precipitation after 18Z, and continued dry overnight.

Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler today with upper 40s
expected along and north of the I-20 corridor, ranging to the mid
50s along the I-10 highway. Lows tonight will drop into the lower
40s, with some low lying areas and river valleys dropping into the
30s. Do not expect to see freezing temperatures as dewpoint values
are expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Christmas Day)

A shortwave upper trough will move east across the southwestern
states on Saturday, and across west central Texas on Sunday morning.
Only some cloud cover is expected in our area with no rainfall from
this weak system. Southeast winds on Saturday will veer to the
south Saturday night, and to the southwest on Sunday as a surface
trough enters the area. With more sunshine, temperatures will be
a few degrees warmer on Sunday.

An upper trough will deepen over the Plains and Midwest on Monday,
with a closed low developing over southeastern South Dakota. The
GFS and ECMWF differ in handling of this system during the week
across the eastern half of the U.S. With the associated cold
front, the GFS is a little stronger and brings the front south
across our area a little sooner than the ECMWF. Timing of the
front could curtail the warmup Monday in our far northern
counties. Looks warm ahead of the front for our central and
southern counties. Currently carrying highs in the upper 60s/
around 70 degrees, but these highs may need to be increased if
subsequent models show increased 850 mb temperatures with low-
level westerly flow and downsloping effects.

The 00Z models indicate a potential for some light rain to develop
in our northern counties and toward the Red River Monday night,
as a disturbance moves into the base of the aforementioned
deepening upper trough. Holding off with any mentionable PoPs for
now, and will see if subsequent models are consistent with this
setup.

Should have increased/gusty north winds following the cold frontal
passage and continuing into the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be
cooler, but sunshine during the day will help to partially offset the
cold air advection. With the surface ridge axis progged to shift into
our area, lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the 30s with
better radiational cooling.

Dry and warmer conditions are indicated for Wednesday and Thursday.
A return to above normal temperatures is expected, especially on
Christmas Day with south-southwest low-level flow and 850 mb
thermal ridging.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  35  55  40  58 /  10   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  54  38  58  40  61 /  10   5   5   5   5
Junction  56  38  57  40  59 /  10   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSJT 191749
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1149 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Look for challenging flight weather conditions for much of the
next 24 hours. Conditions will likely improve to VFR this
afternoon; nevertheless, stratus will redevelop this evening. The
NAM and GFS return conditions to IFR by 12Z at all but the Abilene
terminal. However, confidence for IFR conditions returning isn`t
high; rather, MVFR beginning at 02Z looks best.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Have updated the grids to reflect current trends in radar and
satellite imagery. Lift associated with the upper level low
continues to move northeast away from our CWA, and dry air aloft
also continues to advect in from the southwest over the area,
pointing toward precipitation ending across the area for the most
part. Will keep a slight chance of showers for eastern areas
through the rest of the this morning, as spotty showers will still
be possible, generally east of a Haskell, to Abilene, to Junction
line. Have removed all mention of precipitation for the afternoon.
Updated text products will be out soon. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Initially poor conditions should gradually improve throughout the
day. IFR to LIFR conditions, mainly due to low CIGS, are prevalent
across the area this morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
are moving out of the area, and are likely to end for the most
part before noon today. However, behind a cold front today, low
clouds are expected to persist at least into the early afternoon
hours, while gradually lifting to MVFR. Have kept a brief period
of VFR conditions in the TAFs for this afternoon and early
evening. With the cold air mass still in place tonight, we could
see these low clouds redevelop after 00Z, so have brought MVFR
CIGS back into the forecast after 00Z tonight at all sites. Winds
will remain generally northeast today, while slowly veering to the
east or southeast tonight. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms are
currently affecting areas mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo
to Junction line. A cold front is making progress southward
resulting in cooler/drier air and northeast winds of around 10
mph. The cold front as of 3 AM was moving through the I-10
corridor area. The upper level trough/low bringing the large scale
lift into the area was centered near the TX/NM border northwest of
Lubbock, with much drier air rotating around the southern end of
the cyclonic flow into our forecast area. This trough will
continue moving east/northeast today. The drier air is showing its
effects in our southwestern counties already where precipitation
looks to be over. With the best lift/moisture moving northeast
today, have adjusted PoPs downward after 12Z this morning,
especially for our southwestern counties. We may see lingering
scattered activity this morning generally north and east of a
Sterling City to Ballinger to Junction line, and then an end to
most of the precipitation after 18Z, and continued dry overnight.

Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler today with upper 40s
expected along and north of the I-20 corridor, ranging to the mid
50s along the I-10 highway. Lows tonight will drop into the lower
40s, with some low lying areas and river valleys dropping into the
30s. Do not expect to see freezing temperatures as dewpoint values
are expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Christmas Day)

A shortwave upper trough will move east across the southwestern
states on Saturday, and across west central Texas on Sunday morning.
Only some cloud cover is expected in our area with no rainfall from
this weak system. Southeast winds on Saturday will veer to the
south Saturday night, and to the southwest on Sunday as a surface
trough enters the area. With more sunshine, temperatures will be
a few degrees warmer on Sunday.

An upper trough will deepen over the Plains and Midwest on Monday,
with a closed low developing over southeastern South Dakota. The
GFS and ECMWF differ in handling of this system during the week
across the eastern half of the U.S. With the associated cold
front, the GFS is a little stronger and brings the front south
across our area a little sooner than the ECMWF. Timing of the
front could curtail the warmup Monday in our far northern
counties. Looks warm ahead of the front for our central and
southern counties. Currently carrying highs in the upper 60s/
around 70 degrees, but these highs may need to be increased if
subsequent models show increased 850 mb temperatures with low-
level westerly flow and downsloping effects.

The 00Z models indicate a potential for some light rain to develop
in our northern counties and toward the Red River Monday night,
as a disturbance moves into the base of the aforementioned
deepening upper trough. Holding off with any mentionable PoPs for
now, and will see if subsequent models are consistent with this
setup.

Should have increased/gusty north winds following the cold frontal
passage and continuing into the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be
cooler, but sunshine during the day will help to partially offset the
cold air advection. With the surface ridge axis progged to shift into
our area, lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the 30s with
better radiational cooling.

Dry and warmer conditions are indicated for Wednesday and Thursday.
A return to above normal temperatures is expected, especially on
Christmas Day with south-southwest low-level flow and 850 mb
thermal ridging.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  35  55  40  58 /  10   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  54  38  58  40  61 /  10   5   5   5   5
Junction  56  38  57  40  59 /  10   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHGX 191737
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1137 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z
FOR MOST OF THE INLAND SITES...BUT MAY LINGER THROUGH 00Z AT THE
COAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OVERHEAD. VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AT LEAST ACROSS KCLL AND KUTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS KCXO AND KIAH.

IF VFR CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
TREND FOR CEILINGS TO LIFT WAS INDICATED BY THE MODEL SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO A SHALLOW COOL AIR
MASS MAY KEEP AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40



000
FXUS64 KHGX 191737
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1137 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z
FOR MOST OF THE INLAND SITES...BUT MAY LINGER THROUGH 00Z AT THE
COAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OVERHEAD. VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AT LEAST ACROSS KCLL AND KUTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS KCXO AND KIAH.

IF VFR CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
TREND FOR CEILINGS TO LIFT WAS INDICATED BY THE MODEL SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO A SHALLOW COOL AIR
MASS MAY KEEP AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40



000
FXUS64 KHGX 191737
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1137 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z
FOR MOST OF THE INLAND SITES...BUT MAY LINGER THROUGH 00Z AT THE
COAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OVERHEAD. VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AT LEAST ACROSS KCLL AND KUTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS KCXO AND KIAH.

IF VFR CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
TREND FOR CEILINGS TO LIFT WAS INDICATED BY THE MODEL SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO A SHALLOW COOL AIR
MASS MAY KEEP AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40



000
FXUS64 KHGX 191737
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1137 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENDING BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z
FOR MOST OF THE INLAND SITES...BUT MAY LINGER THROUGH 00Z AT THE
COAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OVERHEAD. VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
AT LEAST ACROSS KCLL AND KUTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS KCXO AND KIAH.

IF VFR CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. THE NAMBUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
TREND FOR CEILINGS TO LIFT WAS INDICATED BY THE MODEL SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO A SHALLOW COOL AIR
MASS MAY KEEP AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION/MARINE...40



000
FXUS64 KMAF 191713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1112 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR conditions at KINK, KHOB, KMAF should become VFR by early
this afternoon. VFR conditions with clear skies are expected
at all west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals this
afternoon through much of tonight. TEMPO MVFR conditions in fog
is expected to redevelop late tonight at KHOB and KINK with
prevailing IFR conditions at KMAF developing by 06z tonight.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1112 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR conditions at KINK, KHOB, KMAF should become VFR by early
this afternoon. VFR conditions with clear skies are expected
at all west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals this
afternoon through much of tonight. TEMPO MVFR conditions in fog
is expected to redevelop late tonight at KHOB and KINK with
prevailing IFR conditions at KMAF developing by 06z tonight.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 191711
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1111 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA`S CONTINUE ACROSS THE E CWA IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM W TO E THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF S TX. AM
EXPECTING CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH VFR AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT PATCHY FOG ARE FCST TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE FCSTING IFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER BASED
ON FCST SOUNDINGS...AM EXPECTING VSBYS/CIGS TO PREVAIL AT MVFR
LEVELS...THEN LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO LATE SAT
MORNING...EXCEPT ACROSS VCT WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF SAT. GUSTY N WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO
VEER TO THE NE THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...RADAR...SATELLITE
AND OBS...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING A TAD FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.
THEREFORE DUE TO LATEST TRENDS HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TODAY`S FCST WHICH INCLUDES...SHAVING POPS ACROSS THE W
CWA...SHOWING WSHFT OFF THE COAST EARLIER ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AND TWEAKING TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATES
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY JUST S AND E OF THE CRP AIRPORT
AND DRAPED ALONG THE COASTLINE. TEMPS HAVE DECREASED BEHIND THE
FRONT. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS THEN A BRIEF SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE EARLIER. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE BDRY
ALONG WITH A FEW TSRA`S. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO END ONCE THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND THE 850MB FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND
NOON OR SO. MAY MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS AND POPS ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE MRNG ACROSS
S TX XCPT AT KCRP WHERE MVFR WILL BE MORE LIKELY. IMPROVEMENT
XPCTD AT KLRD THIS AFTN WHERE MVFR/VFR WILL BE LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN /ALBEIT LATER/ XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI WHILE
KVCT MAY PREVAIL AT IFR THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF SHRA AND
ISO TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THRU THE MRNG WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS
AFTN...ASIDE FROM LOW CIGS. CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN TO IFR LEVELS
/POSSIBLY LOWER/ AREAWIDE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. VRB WINDS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BECOMING NRLY THRU THE DAY...AND
INCREASING IN INTENSITY. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SOME TONIGHT...BUT
STRONGEST AT KCRP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  50  59  50  63  /  70  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          58  48  59  45  62  /  90  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  50  60  50  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             65  50  58  49  64  /  60  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          66  50  58  51  62  /  80  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           62  45  59  46  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  51  60  50  64  /  60  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       69  52  58  53  62  /  70  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 191711
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1111 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA`S CONTINUE ACROSS THE E CWA IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM W TO E THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF S TX. AM
EXPECTING CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH VFR AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT PATCHY FOG ARE FCST TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE FCSTING IFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER BASED
ON FCST SOUNDINGS...AM EXPECTING VSBYS/CIGS TO PREVAIL AT MVFR
LEVELS...THEN LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO LATE SAT
MORNING...EXCEPT ACROSS VCT WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF SAT. GUSTY N WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO
VEER TO THE NE THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...RADAR...SATELLITE
AND OBS...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING A TAD FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.
THEREFORE DUE TO LATEST TRENDS HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TODAY`S FCST WHICH INCLUDES...SHAVING POPS ACROSS THE W
CWA...SHOWING WSHFT OFF THE COAST EARLIER ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AND TWEAKING TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATES
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY JUST S AND E OF THE CRP AIRPORT
AND DRAPED ALONG THE COASTLINE. TEMPS HAVE DECREASED BEHIND THE
FRONT. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS THEN A BRIEF SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE EARLIER. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE BDRY
ALONG WITH A FEW TSRA`S. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO END ONCE THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND THE 850MB FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND
NOON OR SO. MAY MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS AND POPS ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE MRNG ACROSS
S TX XCPT AT KCRP WHERE MVFR WILL BE MORE LIKELY. IMPROVEMENT
XPCTD AT KLRD THIS AFTN WHERE MVFR/VFR WILL BE LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN /ALBEIT LATER/ XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI WHILE
KVCT MAY PREVAIL AT IFR THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF SHRA AND
ISO TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THRU THE MRNG WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS
AFTN...ASIDE FROM LOW CIGS. CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN TO IFR LEVELS
/POSSIBLY LOWER/ AREAWIDE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. VRB WINDS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BECOMING NRLY THRU THE DAY...AND
INCREASING IN INTENSITY. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SOME TONIGHT...BUT
STRONGEST AT KCRP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  50  59  50  63  /  70  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          58  48  59  45  62  /  90  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  50  60  50  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             65  50  58  49  64  /  60  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          66  50  58  51  62  /  80  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           62  45  59  46  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  51  60  50  64  /  60  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       69  52  58  53  62  /  70  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 191711
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1111 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA`S CONTINUE ACROSS THE E CWA IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM W TO E THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF S TX. AM
EXPECTING CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH VFR AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT PATCHY FOG ARE FCST TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE FCSTING IFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER BASED
ON FCST SOUNDINGS...AM EXPECTING VSBYS/CIGS TO PREVAIL AT MVFR
LEVELS...THEN LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO LATE SAT
MORNING...EXCEPT ACROSS VCT WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF SAT. GUSTY N WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO
VEER TO THE NE THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...RADAR...SATELLITE
AND OBS...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING A TAD FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.
THEREFORE DUE TO LATEST TRENDS HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TODAY`S FCST WHICH INCLUDES...SHAVING POPS ACROSS THE W
CWA...SHOWING WSHFT OFF THE COAST EARLIER ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AND TWEAKING TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATES
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY JUST S AND E OF THE CRP AIRPORT
AND DRAPED ALONG THE COASTLINE. TEMPS HAVE DECREASED BEHIND THE
FRONT. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS THEN A BRIEF SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE EARLIER. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE BDRY
ALONG WITH A FEW TSRA`S. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO END ONCE THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND THE 850MB FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND
NOON OR SO. MAY MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS AND POPS ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE MRNG ACROSS
S TX XCPT AT KCRP WHERE MVFR WILL BE MORE LIKELY. IMPROVEMENT
XPCTD AT KLRD THIS AFTN WHERE MVFR/VFR WILL BE LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN /ALBEIT LATER/ XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI WHILE
KVCT MAY PREVAIL AT IFR THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF SHRA AND
ISO TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THRU THE MRNG WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS
AFTN...ASIDE FROM LOW CIGS. CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN TO IFR LEVELS
/POSSIBLY LOWER/ AREAWIDE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. VRB WINDS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BECOMING NRLY THRU THE DAY...AND
INCREASING IN INTENSITY. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SOME TONIGHT...BUT
STRONGEST AT KCRP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  50  59  50  63  /  70  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          58  48  59  45  62  /  90  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  50  60  50  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             65  50  58  49  64  /  60  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          66  50  58  51  62  /  80  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           62  45  59  46  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  51  60  50  64  /  60  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       69  52  58  53  62  /  70  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 191711
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1111 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA`S CONTINUE ACROSS THE E CWA IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END FROM W TO E THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF S TX. AM
EXPECTING CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR LEVELS WITH VFR AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT PATCHY FOG ARE FCST TO
PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE FCSTING IFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER BASED
ON FCST SOUNDINGS...AM EXPECTING VSBYS/CIGS TO PREVAIL AT MVFR
LEVELS...THEN LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO LATE SAT
MORNING...EXCEPT ACROSS VCT WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF SAT. GUSTY N WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO
VEER TO THE NE THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...RADAR...SATELLITE
AND OBS...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING A TAD FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.
THEREFORE DUE TO LATEST TRENDS HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TODAY`S FCST WHICH INCLUDES...SHAVING POPS ACROSS THE W
CWA...SHOWING WSHFT OFF THE COAST EARLIER ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AND TWEAKING TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATES
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY JUST S AND E OF THE CRP AIRPORT
AND DRAPED ALONG THE COASTLINE. TEMPS HAVE DECREASED BEHIND THE
FRONT. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS THEN A BRIEF SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE EARLIER. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE BDRY
ALONG WITH A FEW TSRA`S. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO END ONCE THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND THE 850MB FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND
NOON OR SO. MAY MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS AND POPS ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE MRNG ACROSS
S TX XCPT AT KCRP WHERE MVFR WILL BE MORE LIKELY. IMPROVEMENT
XPCTD AT KLRD THIS AFTN WHERE MVFR/VFR WILL BE LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN /ALBEIT LATER/ XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI WHILE
KVCT MAY PREVAIL AT IFR THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF SHRA AND
ISO TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THRU THE MRNG WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS
AFTN...ASIDE FROM LOW CIGS. CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN TO IFR LEVELS
/POSSIBLY LOWER/ AREAWIDE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. VRB WINDS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BECOMING NRLY THRU THE DAY...AND
INCREASING IN INTENSITY. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SOME TONIGHT...BUT
STRONGEST AT KCRP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  50  59  50  63  /  70  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          58  48  59  45  62  /  90  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  50  60  50  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             65  50  58  49  64  /  60  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          66  50  58  51  62  /  80  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           62  45  59  46  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  51  60  50  64  /  60  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       69  52  58  53  62  /  70  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KHGX 191631
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1031 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WILL COME TO AN
END BY 21/22Z. HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THIS.
HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE SW ZONES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THAT IS UNLIKELY TO BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON. 13

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
A TAPERING OFF OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EARLY
PERIOD HIGHER FREQUENCY OF MORE MODERATE RAIN AND THUNDER LEADING
TO IFR CATS...TRANSITIONING TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. A LATE
DAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL AID IN SCOURING OUT LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN...BUT WILL CREATE A LOW ENOUGH MOIST INVERSION TO MAINTAIN
IFR CATS IN PLACE FROM MID-LATE FRIDAY ENDING THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THRU 3 AM...THE AREA`S
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES STRETCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM THE FRELSBURG AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
HOUSTON TO THE MOSS HILL AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRODUCING ACTIVITY
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WFO LCH FORECAST AREA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND LOWERING VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOL UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
GULF ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONT PUSHING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH...WILL HOIST CAUTION FLAGS.
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SLACKENING WEEKEND OFFSHORE GRADIENT TAKES NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS FALLING TO UNDER THREE FEET PER
MONDAY`S PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13




000
FXUS64 KHGX 191631
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1031 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WILL COME TO AN
END BY 21/22Z. HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT THIS.
HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE SW ZONES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THAT IS UNLIKELY TO BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON. 13

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
A TAPERING OFF OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EARLY
PERIOD HIGHER FREQUENCY OF MORE MODERATE RAIN AND THUNDER LEADING
TO IFR CATS...TRANSITIONING TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. A LATE
DAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL AID IN SCOURING OUT LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN...BUT WILL CREATE A LOW ENOUGH MOIST INVERSION TO MAINTAIN
IFR CATS IN PLACE FROM MID-LATE FRIDAY ENDING THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THRU 3 AM...THE AREA`S
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES STRETCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM THE FRELSBURG AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
HOUSTON TO THE MOSS HILL AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRODUCING ACTIVITY
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WFO LCH FORECAST AREA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND LOWERING VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOL UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
GULF ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONT PUSHING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH...WILL HOIST CAUTION FLAGS.
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SLACKENING WEEKEND OFFSHORE GRADIENT TAKES NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS FALLING TO UNDER THREE FEET PER
MONDAY`S PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13



000
FXUS64 KCRP 191625
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1025 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...RADAR...SATELLITE
AND OBS...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING A TAD FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.
THEREFORE DUE TO LATEST TRENDS HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TODAY`S FCST WHICH INCLUDES...SHAVING POPS ACROSS THE W
CWA...SHOWING WSHFT OFF THE COAST EARLIER ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AND TWEAKING TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATES
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY JUST S AND E OF THE CRP AIRPORT
AND DRAPED ALONG THE COASTLINE. TEMPS HAVE DECREASED BEHIND THE
FRONT. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS THEN A BRIEF SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE EARLIER. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE BDRY
ALONG WITH A FEW TSRA`S. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO END ONCE THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND THE 850MB FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND
NOON OR SO. MAY MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS AND POPS ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE MRNG ACROSS
S TX XCPT AT KCRP WHERE MVFR WILL BE MORE LIKELY. IMPROVEMENT
XPCTD AT KLRD THIS AFTN WHERE MVFR/VFR WILL BE LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN /ALBEIT LATER/ XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI WHILE
KVCT MAY PREVAIL AT IFR THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF SHRA AND
ISO TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THRU THE MRNG WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS
AFTN...ASIDE FROM LOW CIGS. CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN TO IFR LEVELS
/POSSIBLY LOWER/ AREAWIDE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. VRB WINDS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BECOMING NRLY THRU THE DAY...AND
INCREASING IN INTENSITY. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SOME TONIGHT...BUT
STRONGEST AT KCRP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  50  59  50  63  /  70  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          58  48  59  45  62  /  90  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  50  60  50  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             65  50  58  49  64  /  60  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          66  50  58  51  62  /  80  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           62  45  59  46  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  51  60  50  64  /  60  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       69  52  58  53  62  /  70  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 191625
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1025 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...RADAR...SATELLITE
AND OBS...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING A TAD FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.
THEREFORE DUE TO LATEST TRENDS HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TODAY`S FCST WHICH INCLUDES...SHAVING POPS ACROSS THE W
CWA...SHOWING WSHFT OFF THE COAST EARLIER ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AND TWEAKING TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. UPDATES
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY JUST S AND E OF THE CRP AIRPORT
AND DRAPED ALONG THE COASTLINE. TEMPS HAVE DECREASED BEHIND THE
FRONT. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS THEN A BRIEF SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE EARLIER. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE BDRY
ALONG WITH A FEW TSRA`S. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO END ONCE THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND THE 850MB FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND
NOON OR SO. MAY MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS AND POPS ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE MRNG ACROSS
S TX XCPT AT KCRP WHERE MVFR WILL BE MORE LIKELY. IMPROVEMENT
XPCTD AT KLRD THIS AFTN WHERE MVFR/VFR WILL BE LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN /ALBEIT LATER/ XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI WHILE
KVCT MAY PREVAIL AT IFR THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF SHRA AND
ISO TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THRU THE MRNG WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS
AFTN...ASIDE FROM LOW CIGS. CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN TO IFR LEVELS
/POSSIBLY LOWER/ AREAWIDE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. VRB WINDS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BECOMING NRLY THRU THE DAY...AND
INCREASING IN INTENSITY. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SOME TONIGHT...BUT
STRONGEST AT KCRP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    67  50  59  50  63  /  70  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          58  48  59  45  62  /  90  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  50  60  50  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             65  50  58  49  64  /  60  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          66  50  58  51  62  /  80  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           62  45  59  46  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  51  60  50  64  /  60  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       69  52  58  53  62  /  70  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KEWX 191551
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
951 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVING
IN BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING MUCH SUNLIGHT.
AREAS OUT WEST NEAR DEL RIO SHOULD SEE THE SUN POKE THROUGH THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT ITLL BE TOUGH ELSEWHERE.

THEREFORE...POP/WX LOWERING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
CLEARING OUT OF ALL POP MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR HOURLY
T/TD GRID TWEAKS TO BLEND TO LATEST OBS BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. HAVE REMOVED POPS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT FOR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE HI-RES MODELS INDICATED LIGHT RAIN. HAVE ALSO REDUCED
POPS FOR PARTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. FINALLY...HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SPEED OF SYSTEM. REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF CYCLE/
IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING AS
OF 12Z AS -SHRA/-DZ AND LOW CIGS COMBINE TO HAMPER VISIBILITIES IN
THE 2-5SM RANGE. -SHRA/DZ FOR I-35 TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
16-18Z TIMEFRAME WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. KDRT
CURRENTLY MVFR (AT 12Z) BUT IFR CIGS LURK JUST NORTH AND WILL
LIKELY INFILTRATE OVER SITE NEXT HOUR. SLOW MVFR IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN WITH VFR POSSIBLE FOR KDRT. HOWEVER, NAM12
IS MORE BULLISH THAN GFS ON KEEPING CLOUDS AT KDRT AND WILL
MONITOR IF VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH CIG AND VIS DROPS DUE TO PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG 20/10-15Z. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  20  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  20  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 191551
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
951 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVING
IN BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING MUCH SUNLIGHT.
AREAS OUT WEST NEAR DEL RIO SHOULD SEE THE SUN POKE THROUGH THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT ITLL BE TOUGH ELSEWHERE.

THEREFORE...POP/WX LOWERING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
CLEARING OUT OF ALL POP MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR HOURLY
T/TD GRID TWEAKS TO BLEND TO LATEST OBS BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. HAVE REMOVED POPS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT FOR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE HI-RES MODELS INDICATED LIGHT RAIN. HAVE ALSO REDUCED
POPS FOR PARTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. FINALLY...HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SPEED OF SYSTEM. REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF CYCLE/
IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING AS
OF 12Z AS -SHRA/-DZ AND LOW CIGS COMBINE TO HAMPER VISIBILITIES IN
THE 2-5SM RANGE. -SHRA/DZ FOR I-35 TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
16-18Z TIMEFRAME WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. KDRT
CURRENTLY MVFR (AT 12Z) BUT IFR CIGS LURK JUST NORTH AND WILL
LIKELY INFILTRATE OVER SITE NEXT HOUR. SLOW MVFR IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN WITH VFR POSSIBLE FOR KDRT. HOWEVER, NAM12
IS MORE BULLISH THAN GFS ON KEEPING CLOUDS AT KDRT AND WILL
MONITOR IF VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH CIG AND VIS DROPS DUE TO PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG 20/10-15Z. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  20  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  20  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 191551
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
951 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVING
IN BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING MUCH SUNLIGHT.
AREAS OUT WEST NEAR DEL RIO SHOULD SEE THE SUN POKE THROUGH THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT ITLL BE TOUGH ELSEWHERE.

THEREFORE...POP/WX LOWERING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
CLEARING OUT OF ALL POP MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR HOURLY
T/TD GRID TWEAKS TO BLEND TO LATEST OBS BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. HAVE REMOVED POPS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT FOR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE HI-RES MODELS INDICATED LIGHT RAIN. HAVE ALSO REDUCED
POPS FOR PARTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. FINALLY...HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SPEED OF SYSTEM. REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF CYCLE/
IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING AS
OF 12Z AS -SHRA/-DZ AND LOW CIGS COMBINE TO HAMPER VISIBILITIES IN
THE 2-5SM RANGE. -SHRA/DZ FOR I-35 TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
16-18Z TIMEFRAME WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. KDRT
CURRENTLY MVFR (AT 12Z) BUT IFR CIGS LURK JUST NORTH AND WILL
LIKELY INFILTRATE OVER SITE NEXT HOUR. SLOW MVFR IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN WITH VFR POSSIBLE FOR KDRT. HOWEVER, NAM12
IS MORE BULLISH THAN GFS ON KEEPING CLOUDS AT KDRT AND WILL
MONITOR IF VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH CIG AND VIS DROPS DUE TO PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG 20/10-15Z. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  20  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  20  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KEWX 191551
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
951 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS MOVING
IN BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP US FROM SEEING MUCH SUNLIGHT.
AREAS OUT WEST NEAR DEL RIO SHOULD SEE THE SUN POKE THROUGH THE
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT ITLL BE TOUGH ELSEWHERE.

THEREFORE...POP/WX LOWERING FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
CLEARING OUT OF ALL POP MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR HOURLY
T/TD GRID TWEAKS TO BLEND TO LATEST OBS BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

TB3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. HAVE REMOVED POPS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT FOR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE HI-RES MODELS INDICATED LIGHT RAIN. HAVE ALSO REDUCED
POPS FOR PARTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. FINALLY...HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SPEED OF SYSTEM. REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF CYCLE/
IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING AS
OF 12Z AS -SHRA/-DZ AND LOW CIGS COMBINE TO HAMPER VISIBILITIES IN
THE 2-5SM RANGE. -SHRA/DZ FOR I-35 TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
16-18Z TIMEFRAME WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. KDRT
CURRENTLY MVFR (AT 12Z) BUT IFR CIGS LURK JUST NORTH AND WILL
LIKELY INFILTRATE OVER SITE NEXT HOUR. SLOW MVFR IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN WITH VFR POSSIBLE FOR KDRT. HOWEVER, NAM12
IS MORE BULLISH THAN GFS ON KEEPING CLOUDS AT KDRT AND WILL
MONITOR IF VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH CIG AND VIS DROPS DUE TO PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG 20/10-15Z. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  20  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  20  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...03
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KFWD 191541
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
941 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATING THIS MORNING TO REMOVE POPS WEST OF I-35 AND TO SCALE
POPS BACK AND REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS TX. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATE.

MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRONG INVERSION AROUND
900MB WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED SO CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGED MADE.

WILEY



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
CONCERNS...IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 20Z. RAIN THIS MORNING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY AT WACO.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. AS
IT DOES SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THROUGH 20Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR THEREAFTER. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST 15-18Z SATURDAY.

58


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
NOW THAT WE HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON RAIN PROGRESSION...HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN THE WEST FOR TODAY. MINOR TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
CHANGES MADE AS WELL. 84

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  50   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  30   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  20   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 191541
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
941 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATING THIS MORNING TO REMOVE POPS WEST OF I-35 AND TO SCALE
POPS BACK AND REMOVE THUNDER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER TROF TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS TX. COULD
STILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE TROF MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TO ACCUMULATE.

MODELS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STRONG INVERSION AROUND
900MB WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED SO CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGED MADE.

WILEY



&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
CONCERNS...IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 20Z. RAIN THIS MORNING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY AT WACO.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. AS
IT DOES SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THROUGH 20Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR THEREAFTER. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST 15-18Z SATURDAY.

58


&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
NOW THAT WE HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON RAIN PROGRESSION...HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN THE WEST FOR TODAY. MINOR TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
CHANGES MADE AS WELL. 84

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  50   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  30   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  20   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KBRO 191510
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
910 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING
AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES EXTENDING FROM CORPUS TO HOUSTON. AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
RETURNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LESS.
BETTER CHANCE STILL REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TX PROVIDING
LIFT ALOFT AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED LGT ELEVATED SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN AFTER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...CIGS WILL BE LIMITING BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MUCH OF THE DAY BECAUSE OF OVERRUNNING. SOME VSBY
REDUCTION IN MORNING FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LWR VALLEY WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH LATER TODAY AS
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS PROVIDING SOME
LIFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE KBRO CWA
TO WORK WITH... WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 KFT AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIPS BY OVER HEAD...AND ALREADY SEEING
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
IN THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON HIGH PRESS AND NORTH
WINDS. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LIE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEFT TO
THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
OVERRUNNING...AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER...OR IVO THE RIO GRANDE.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EVEN AS THE
MID LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHWEST CAPPING FLOW AT H7...OR 10 KFT...WILL
SEE TO THAT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 50 AT KBRO AND KSPI.
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...OR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL THUS NOT REALLY ALLOW FOR A CLEARING OUT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL S/W
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURE THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH CHANCES WANING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND S/W TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DRY AIR WORKS IN ON WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HEART OF THE NATION
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM SO HAVE EDGED WINDS
UP WHILE NUDGING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY. HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS MOISTURE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST PRECIPITATION THERE. SURFACE RIDGING WORKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NEXT S/W
TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. WAA AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS JUMPING
UP TO THE MIDDLE 70S... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES... AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN TO FRESH OR STRONG NORTH LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN WITH A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WHEN NORTH WINDS ON THE GULF WILL APPROACH 20 KTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO JUST SHY OF SEVEN FEET. THUS...A FEW HOURS OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS SETTLING
DOWN THE REST OF SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE SEAS AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61








000
FXUS64 KBRO 191510
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
910 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING
AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES EXTENDING FROM CORPUS TO HOUSTON. AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
RETURNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LESS.
BETTER CHANCE STILL REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TX PROVIDING
LIFT ALOFT AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED LGT ELEVATED SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN AFTER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...CIGS WILL BE LIMITING BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MUCH OF THE DAY BECAUSE OF OVERRUNNING. SOME VSBY
REDUCTION IN MORNING FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LWR VALLEY WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH LATER TODAY AS
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS PROVIDING SOME
LIFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE KBRO CWA
TO WORK WITH... WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 KFT AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIPS BY OVER HEAD...AND ALREADY SEEING
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
IN THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON HIGH PRESS AND NORTH
WINDS. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LIE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEFT TO
THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
OVERRUNNING...AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER...OR IVO THE RIO GRANDE.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EVEN AS THE
MID LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHWEST CAPPING FLOW AT H7...OR 10 KFT...WILL
SEE TO THAT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 50 AT KBRO AND KSPI.
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...OR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL THUS NOT REALLY ALLOW FOR A CLEARING OUT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL S/W
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURE THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH CHANCES WANING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND S/W TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DRY AIR WORKS IN ON WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HEART OF THE NATION
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM SO HAVE EDGED WINDS
UP WHILE NUDGING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY. HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS MOISTURE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST PRECIPITATION THERE. SURFACE RIDGING WORKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NEXT S/W
TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. WAA AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS JUMPING
UP TO THE MIDDLE 70S... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES... AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN TO FRESH OR STRONG NORTH LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN WITH A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WHEN NORTH WINDS ON THE GULF WILL APPROACH 20 KTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO JUST SHY OF SEVEN FEET. THUS...A FEW HOURS OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS SETTLING
DOWN THE REST OF SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE SEAS AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61







000
FXUS64 KCRP 191439
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
839 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY JUST S AND E OF THE CRP AIRPORT
AND DRAPED ALONG THE COASTLINE. TEMPS HAVE DECREASED BEHIND THE
FRONT. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS THEN A BRIEF SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE EARLIER. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE BDRY
ALONG WITH A FEW TSRA`S. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO END ONCE THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND THE 850MB FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND
NOON OR SO. MAY MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS AND POPS ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE MRNG ACROSS
S TX XCPT AT KCRP WHERE MVFR WILL BE MORE LIKELY. IMPROVEMENT
XPCTD AT KLRD THIS AFTN WHERE MVFR/VFR WILL BE LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN /ALBEIT LATER/ XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI WHILE
KVCT MAY PREVAIL AT IFR THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF SHRA AND
ISO TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THRU THE MRNG WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS
AFTN...ASIDE FROM LOW CIGS. CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN TO IFR LEVELS
/POSSIBLY LOWER/ AREAWIDE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. VRB WINDS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BECOMING NRLY THRU THE DAY...AND
INCREASING IN INTENSITY. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SOME TONIGHT...BUT
STRONGEST AT KCRP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  50  59  50  63  /  70  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          62  48  59  45  62  /  90  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            65  50  60  50  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             70  50  58  49  64  /  70  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          69  50  58  51  62  /  80  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           62  45  59  46  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  51  60  50  64  /  60  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       70  52  58  53  62  /  70  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 191439
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
839 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY JUST S AND E OF THE CRP AIRPORT
AND DRAPED ALONG THE COASTLINE. TEMPS HAVE DECREASED BEHIND THE
FRONT. AM EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS THEN A BRIEF SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE EARLIER. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE BDRY
ALONG WITH A FEW TSRA`S. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO END ONCE THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND THE 850MB FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND
NOON OR SO. MAY MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS AND POPS ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE MRNG ACROSS
S TX XCPT AT KCRP WHERE MVFR WILL BE MORE LIKELY. IMPROVEMENT
XPCTD AT KLRD THIS AFTN WHERE MVFR/VFR WILL BE LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN /ALBEIT LATER/ XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI WHILE
KVCT MAY PREVAIL AT IFR THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF SHRA AND
ISO TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THRU THE MRNG WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS
AFTN...ASIDE FROM LOW CIGS. CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN TO IFR LEVELS
/POSSIBLY LOWER/ AREAWIDE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. VRB WINDS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BECOMING NRLY THRU THE DAY...AND
INCREASING IN INTENSITY. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SOME TONIGHT...BUT
STRONGEST AT KCRP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  50  59  50  63  /  70  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          62  48  59  45  62  /  90  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            65  50  60  50  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             70  50  58  49  64  /  70  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          69  50  58  51  62  /  80  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           62  45  59  46  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  51  60  50  64  /  60  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       70  52  58  53  62  /  70  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KEWX 191359
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
759 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. HAVE REMOVED POPS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT FOR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE HI-RES MODELS INDICATED LIGHT RAIN. HAVE ALSO REDUCED
POPS FOR PARTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. FINALLY...HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SPEED OF SYSTEM. REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF CYCLE/
IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING AS
OF 12Z AS -SHRA/-DZ AND LOW CIGS COMBINE TO HAMPER VISIBILITIES IN
THE 2-5SM RANGE. -SHRA/DZ FOR I-35 TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
16-18Z TIMEFRAME WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. KDRT
CURRENTLY MVFR (AT 12Z) BUT IFR CIGS LURK JUST NORTH AND WILL
LIKELY INFILTRATE OVER SITE NEXT HOUR. SLOW MVFR IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN WITH VFR POSSIBLE FOR KDRT. HOWEVER, NAM12
IS MORE BULLISH THAN GFS ON KEEPING CLOUDS AT KDRT AND WILL
MONITOR IF VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH CIG AND VIS DROPS DUE TO PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG 20/10-15Z. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  20  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  20  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...13
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 191359
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
759 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. HAVE REMOVED POPS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT FOR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE HI-RES MODELS INDICATED LIGHT RAIN. HAVE ALSO REDUCED
POPS FOR PARTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. FINALLY...HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SPEED OF SYSTEM. REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF CYCLE/
IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING AS
OF 12Z AS -SHRA/-DZ AND LOW CIGS COMBINE TO HAMPER VISIBILITIES IN
THE 2-5SM RANGE. -SHRA/DZ FOR I-35 TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
16-18Z TIMEFRAME WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. KDRT
CURRENTLY MVFR (AT 12Z) BUT IFR CIGS LURK JUST NORTH AND WILL
LIKELY INFILTRATE OVER SITE NEXT HOUR. SLOW MVFR IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN WITH VFR POSSIBLE FOR KDRT. HOWEVER, NAM12
IS MORE BULLISH THAN GFS ON KEEPING CLOUDS AT KDRT AND WILL
MONITOR IF VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH CIG AND VIS DROPS DUE TO PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG 20/10-15Z. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  20  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  20  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...13
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 191359
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
759 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. HAVE REMOVED POPS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT FOR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE HI-RES MODELS INDICATED LIGHT RAIN. HAVE ALSO REDUCED
POPS FOR PARTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. FINALLY...HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SPEED OF SYSTEM. REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF CYCLE/
IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING AS
OF 12Z AS -SHRA/-DZ AND LOW CIGS COMBINE TO HAMPER VISIBILITIES IN
THE 2-5SM RANGE. -SHRA/DZ FOR I-35 TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
16-18Z TIMEFRAME WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. KDRT
CURRENTLY MVFR (AT 12Z) BUT IFR CIGS LURK JUST NORTH AND WILL
LIKELY INFILTRATE OVER SITE NEXT HOUR. SLOW MVFR IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN WITH VFR POSSIBLE FOR KDRT. HOWEVER, NAM12
IS MORE BULLISH THAN GFS ON KEEPING CLOUDS AT KDRT AND WILL
MONITOR IF VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH CIG AND VIS DROPS DUE TO PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG 20/10-15Z. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  20  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  20  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...13
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KEWX 191359
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
759 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN HAS ENDED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. HAVE REMOVED POPS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281...EXCEPT FOR THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE HI-RES MODELS INDICATED LIGHT RAIN. HAVE ALSO REDUCED
POPS FOR PARTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. FINALLY...HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SPEED OF SYSTEM. REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION... /12Z TAF CYCLE/
IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING AS
OF 12Z AS -SHRA/-DZ AND LOW CIGS COMBINE TO HAMPER VISIBILITIES IN
THE 2-5SM RANGE. -SHRA/DZ FOR I-35 TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
16-18Z TIMEFRAME WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. KDRT
CURRENTLY MVFR (AT 12Z) BUT IFR CIGS LURK JUST NORTH AND WILL
LIKELY INFILTRATE OVER SITE NEXT HOUR. SLOW MVFR IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN WITH VFR POSSIBLE FOR KDRT. HOWEVER, NAM12
IS MORE BULLISH THAN GFS ON KEEPING CLOUDS AT KDRT AND WILL
MONITOR IF VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH CIG AND VIS DROPS DUE TO PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG 20/10-15Z. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  20  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  20  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  20  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  20  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...13
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30





000
FXUS64 KAMA 191345 CCA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
742 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CORRECTED FINAL PARAGRAPH OF 412 AM DISCUSSION

.AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03







000
FXUS64 KAMA 191345 CCA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
742 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CORRECTED FINAL PARAGRAPH OF 412 AM DISCUSSION

.AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03








000
FXUS64 KSJT 191343 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
743 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Have updated the grids to reflect current trends in radar and
satellite imagery. Lift associated with the upper level low
continues to move northeast away from our CWA, and dry air aloft
also continues to advect in from the southwest over the area,
pointing toward precipitation ending across the area for the most
part. Will keep a slight chance of showers for eastern areas
through the rest of the this morning, as spotty showers will still
be possible, generally east of a Haskell, to Abilene, to Junction
line. Have removed all mention of precipitation for the afternoon.
Updated text products will be out soon. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Initially poor conditions should gradually improve throughout the
day. IFR to LIFR conditions, mainly due to low CIGS, are prevalent
across the area this morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
are moving out of the area, and are likely to end for the most
part before noon today. However, behind a cold front today, low
clouds are expected to persist at least into the early afternoon
hours, while gradually lifting to MVFR. Have kept a brief period
of VFR conditions in the TAFs for this afternoon and early
evening. With the cold air mass still in place tonight, we could
see these low clouds redevelop after 00Z, so have brought MVFR
CIGS back into the forecast after 00Z tonight at all sites. Winds
will remain generally northeast today, while slowly veering to the
east or southeast tonight. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms are
currently affecting areas mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo
to Junction line. A cold front is making progress southward
resulting in cooler/drier air and northeast winds of around 10
mph. The cold front as of 3 AM was moving through the I-10
corridor area. The upper level trough/low bringing the large scale
lift into the area was centered near the TX/NM border northwest of
Lubbock, with much drier air rotating around the southern end of
the cyclonic flow into our forecast area. This trough will
continue moving east/northeast today. The drier air is showing its
effects in our southwestern counties already where precipitation
looks to be over. With the best lift/moisture moving northeast
today, have adjusted PoPs downward after 12Z this morning,
especially for our southwestern counties. We may see lingering
scattered activity this morning generally north and east of a
Sterling City to Ballinger to Junction line, and then an end to
most of the precipitation after 18Z, and continued dry overnight.

Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler today with upper 40s
expected along and north of the I-20 corridor, ranging to the mid
50s along the I-10 highway. Lows tonight will drop into the lower
40s, with some low lying areas and river valleys dropping into the
30s. Do not expect to see freezing temperatures as dewpoint values
are expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Christmas Day)

A shortwave upper trough will move east across the southwestern
states on Saturday, and across west central Texas on Sunday morning.
Only some cloud cover is expected in our area with no rainfall from
this weak system. Southeast winds on Saturday will veer to the
south Saturday night, and to the southwest on Sunday as a surface
trough enters the area. With more sunshine, temperatures will be
a few degrees warmer on Sunday.

An upper trough will deepen over the Plains and Midwest on Monday,
with a closed low developing over southeastern South Dakota. The
GFS and ECMWF differ in handling of this system during the week
across the eastern half of the U.S. With the associated cold
front, the GFS is a little stronger and brings the front south
across our area a little sooner than the ECMWF. Timing of the
front could curtail the warmup Monday in our far northern
counties. Looks warm ahead of the front for our central and
southern counties. Currently carrying highs in the upper 60s/
around 70 degrees, but these highs may need to be increased if
subsequent models show increased 850 mb temperatures with low-
level westerly flow and downsloping effects.

The 00Z models indicate a potential for some light rain to develop
in our northern counties and toward the Red River Monday night,
as a disturbance moves into the base of the aforementioned
deepening upper trough. Holding off with any mentionable PoPs for
now, and will see if subsequent models are consistent with this
setup.

Should have increased/gusty north winds following the cold frontal
passage and continuing into the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be
cooler, but sunshine during the day will help to partially offset the
cold air advection. With the surface ridge axis progged to shift into
our area, lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the 30s with
better radiational cooling.

Dry and warmer conditions are indicated for Wednesday and Thursday.
A return to above normal temperatures is expected, especially on
Christmas Day with south-southwest low-level flow and 850 mb
thermal ridging.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  35  55  40  58 /  20   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  54  38  58  40  61 /  10   5   5   5   5
Junction  56  38  57  40  59 /  10   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 191343 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
743 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Have updated the grids to reflect current trends in radar and
satellite imagery. Lift associated with the upper level low
continues to move northeast away from our CWA, and dry air aloft
also continues to advect in from the southwest over the area,
pointing toward precipitation ending across the area for the most
part. Will keep a slight chance of showers for eastern areas
through the rest of the this morning, as spotty showers will still
be possible, generally east of a Haskell, to Abilene, to Junction
line. Have removed all mention of precipitation for the afternoon.
Updated text products will be out soon. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Initially poor conditions should gradually improve throughout the
day. IFR to LIFR conditions, mainly due to low CIGS, are prevalent
across the area this morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
are moving out of the area, and are likely to end for the most
part before noon today. However, behind a cold front today, low
clouds are expected to persist at least into the early afternoon
hours, while gradually lifting to MVFR. Have kept a brief period
of VFR conditions in the TAFs for this afternoon and early
evening. With the cold air mass still in place tonight, we could
see these low clouds redevelop after 00Z, so have brought MVFR
CIGS back into the forecast after 00Z tonight at all sites. Winds
will remain generally northeast today, while slowly veering to the
east or southeast tonight. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms are
currently affecting areas mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo
to Junction line. A cold front is making progress southward
resulting in cooler/drier air and northeast winds of around 10
mph. The cold front as of 3 AM was moving through the I-10
corridor area. The upper level trough/low bringing the large scale
lift into the area was centered near the TX/NM border northwest of
Lubbock, with much drier air rotating around the southern end of
the cyclonic flow into our forecast area. This trough will
continue moving east/northeast today. The drier air is showing its
effects in our southwestern counties already where precipitation
looks to be over. With the best lift/moisture moving northeast
today, have adjusted PoPs downward after 12Z this morning,
especially for our southwestern counties. We may see lingering
scattered activity this morning generally north and east of a
Sterling City to Ballinger to Junction line, and then an end to
most of the precipitation after 18Z, and continued dry overnight.

Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler today with upper 40s
expected along and north of the I-20 corridor, ranging to the mid
50s along the I-10 highway. Lows tonight will drop into the lower
40s, with some low lying areas and river valleys dropping into the
30s. Do not expect to see freezing temperatures as dewpoint values
are expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Christmas Day)

A shortwave upper trough will move east across the southwestern
states on Saturday, and across west central Texas on Sunday morning.
Only some cloud cover is expected in our area with no rainfall from
this weak system. Southeast winds on Saturday will veer to the
south Saturday night, and to the southwest on Sunday as a surface
trough enters the area. With more sunshine, temperatures will be
a few degrees warmer on Sunday.

An upper trough will deepen over the Plains and Midwest on Monday,
with a closed low developing over southeastern South Dakota. The
GFS and ECMWF differ in handling of this system during the week
across the eastern half of the U.S. With the associated cold
front, the GFS is a little stronger and brings the front south
across our area a little sooner than the ECMWF. Timing of the
front could curtail the warmup Monday in our far northern
counties. Looks warm ahead of the front for our central and
southern counties. Currently carrying highs in the upper 60s/
around 70 degrees, but these highs may need to be increased if
subsequent models show increased 850 mb temperatures with low-
level westerly flow and downsloping effects.

The 00Z models indicate a potential for some light rain to develop
in our northern counties and toward the Red River Monday night,
as a disturbance moves into the base of the aforementioned
deepening upper trough. Holding off with any mentionable PoPs for
now, and will see if subsequent models are consistent with this
setup.

Should have increased/gusty north winds following the cold frontal
passage and continuing into the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be
cooler, but sunshine during the day will help to partially offset the
cold air advection. With the surface ridge axis progged to shift into
our area, lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the 30s with
better radiational cooling.

Dry and warmer conditions are indicated for Wednesday and Thursday.
A return to above normal temperatures is expected, especially on
Christmas Day with south-southwest low-level flow and 850 mb
thermal ridging.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  35  55  40  58 /  20   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  54  38  58  40  61 /  10   5   5   5   5
Junction  56  38  57  40  59 /  10   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 191343 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
743 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Have updated the grids to reflect current trends in radar and
satellite imagery. Lift associated with the upper level low
continues to move northeast away from our CWA, and dry air aloft
also continues to advect in from the southwest over the area,
pointing toward precipitation ending across the area for the most
part. Will keep a slight chance of showers for eastern areas
through the rest of the this morning, as spotty showers will still
be possible, generally east of a Haskell, to Abilene, to Junction
line. Have removed all mention of precipitation for the afternoon.
Updated text products will be out soon. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Initially poor conditions should gradually improve throughout the
day. IFR to LIFR conditions, mainly due to low CIGS, are prevalent
across the area this morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
are moving out of the area, and are likely to end for the most
part before noon today. However, behind a cold front today, low
clouds are expected to persist at least into the early afternoon
hours, while gradually lifting to MVFR. Have kept a brief period
of VFR conditions in the TAFs for this afternoon and early
evening. With the cold air mass still in place tonight, we could
see these low clouds redevelop after 00Z, so have brought MVFR
CIGS back into the forecast after 00Z tonight at all sites. Winds
will remain generally northeast today, while slowly veering to the
east or southeast tonight. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms are
currently affecting areas mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo
to Junction line. A cold front is making progress southward
resulting in cooler/drier air and northeast winds of around 10
mph. The cold front as of 3 AM was moving through the I-10
corridor area. The upper level trough/low bringing the large scale
lift into the area was centered near the TX/NM border northwest of
Lubbock, with much drier air rotating around the southern end of
the cyclonic flow into our forecast area. This trough will
continue moving east/northeast today. The drier air is showing its
effects in our southwestern counties already where precipitation
looks to be over. With the best lift/moisture moving northeast
today, have adjusted PoPs downward after 12Z this morning,
especially for our southwestern counties. We may see lingering
scattered activity this morning generally north and east of a
Sterling City to Ballinger to Junction line, and then an end to
most of the precipitation after 18Z, and continued dry overnight.

Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler today with upper 40s
expected along and north of the I-20 corridor, ranging to the mid
50s along the I-10 highway. Lows tonight will drop into the lower
40s, with some low lying areas and river valleys dropping into the
30s. Do not expect to see freezing temperatures as dewpoint values
are expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Christmas Day)

A shortwave upper trough will move east across the southwestern
states on Saturday, and across west central Texas on Sunday morning.
Only some cloud cover is expected in our area with no rainfall from
this weak system. Southeast winds on Saturday will veer to the
south Saturday night, and to the southwest on Sunday as a surface
trough enters the area. With more sunshine, temperatures will be
a few degrees warmer on Sunday.

An upper trough will deepen over the Plains and Midwest on Monday,
with a closed low developing over southeastern South Dakota. The
GFS and ECMWF differ in handling of this system during the week
across the eastern half of the U.S. With the associated cold
front, the GFS is a little stronger and brings the front south
across our area a little sooner than the ECMWF. Timing of the
front could curtail the warmup Monday in our far northern
counties. Looks warm ahead of the front for our central and
southern counties. Currently carrying highs in the upper 60s/
around 70 degrees, but these highs may need to be increased if
subsequent models show increased 850 mb temperatures with low-
level westerly flow and downsloping effects.

The 00Z models indicate a potential for some light rain to develop
in our northern counties and toward the Red River Monday night,
as a disturbance moves into the base of the aforementioned
deepening upper trough. Holding off with any mentionable PoPs for
now, and will see if subsequent models are consistent with this
setup.

Should have increased/gusty north winds following the cold frontal
passage and continuing into the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be
cooler, but sunshine during the day will help to partially offset the
cold air advection. With the surface ridge axis progged to shift into
our area, lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the 30s with
better radiational cooling.

Dry and warmer conditions are indicated for Wednesday and Thursday.
A return to above normal temperatures is expected, especially on
Christmas Day with south-southwest low-level flow and 850 mb
thermal ridging.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  35  55  40  58 /  20   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  54  38  58  40  61 /  10   5   5   5   5
Junction  56  38  57  40  59 /  10   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 191343 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
743 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Have updated the grids to reflect current trends in radar and
satellite imagery. Lift associated with the upper level low
continues to move northeast away from our CWA, and dry air aloft
also continues to advect in from the southwest over the area,
pointing toward precipitation ending across the area for the most
part. Will keep a slight chance of showers for eastern areas
through the rest of the this morning, as spotty showers will still
be possible, generally east of a Haskell, to Abilene, to Junction
line. Have removed all mention of precipitation for the afternoon.
Updated text products will be out soon. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Initially poor conditions should gradually improve throughout the
day. IFR to LIFR conditions, mainly due to low CIGS, are prevalent
across the area this morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
are moving out of the area, and are likely to end for the most
part before noon today. However, behind a cold front today, low
clouds are expected to persist at least into the early afternoon
hours, while gradually lifting to MVFR. Have kept a brief period
of VFR conditions in the TAFs for this afternoon and early
evening. With the cold air mass still in place tonight, we could
see these low clouds redevelop after 00Z, so have brought MVFR
CIGS back into the forecast after 00Z tonight at all sites. Winds
will remain generally northeast today, while slowly veering to the
east or southeast tonight. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms are
currently affecting areas mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo
to Junction line. A cold front is making progress southward
resulting in cooler/drier air and northeast winds of around 10
mph. The cold front as of 3 AM was moving through the I-10
corridor area. The upper level trough/low bringing the large scale
lift into the area was centered near the TX/NM border northwest of
Lubbock, with much drier air rotating around the southern end of
the cyclonic flow into our forecast area. This trough will
continue moving east/northeast today. The drier air is showing its
effects in our southwestern counties already where precipitation
looks to be over. With the best lift/moisture moving northeast
today, have adjusted PoPs downward after 12Z this morning,
especially for our southwestern counties. We may see lingering
scattered activity this morning generally north and east of a
Sterling City to Ballinger to Junction line, and then an end to
most of the precipitation after 18Z, and continued dry overnight.

Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler today with upper 40s
expected along and north of the I-20 corridor, ranging to the mid
50s along the I-10 highway. Lows tonight will drop into the lower
40s, with some low lying areas and river valleys dropping into the
30s. Do not expect to see freezing temperatures as dewpoint values
are expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Christmas Day)

A shortwave upper trough will move east across the southwestern
states on Saturday, and across west central Texas on Sunday morning.
Only some cloud cover is expected in our area with no rainfall from
this weak system. Southeast winds on Saturday will veer to the
south Saturday night, and to the southwest on Sunday as a surface
trough enters the area. With more sunshine, temperatures will be
a few degrees warmer on Sunday.

An upper trough will deepen over the Plains and Midwest on Monday,
with a closed low developing over southeastern South Dakota. The
GFS and ECMWF differ in handling of this system during the week
across the eastern half of the U.S. With the associated cold
front, the GFS is a little stronger and brings the front south
across our area a little sooner than the ECMWF. Timing of the
front could curtail the warmup Monday in our far northern
counties. Looks warm ahead of the front for our central and
southern counties. Currently carrying highs in the upper 60s/
around 70 degrees, but these highs may need to be increased if
subsequent models show increased 850 mb temperatures with low-
level westerly flow and downsloping effects.

The 00Z models indicate a potential for some light rain to develop
in our northern counties and toward the Red River Monday night,
as a disturbance moves into the base of the aforementioned
deepening upper trough. Holding off with any mentionable PoPs for
now, and will see if subsequent models are consistent with this
setup.

Should have increased/gusty north winds following the cold frontal
passage and continuing into the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be
cooler, but sunshine during the day will help to partially offset the
cold air advection. With the surface ridge axis progged to shift into
our area, lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the 30s with
better radiational cooling.

Dry and warmer conditions are indicated for Wednesday and Thursday.
A return to above normal temperatures is expected, especially on
Christmas Day with south-southwest low-level flow and 850 mb
thermal ridging.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  35  55  40  58 /  20   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  54  38  58  40  61 /  10   5   5   5   5
Junction  56  38  57  40  59 /  10   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 191240
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NOW THAT WE HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON RAIN PROGRESSION...HAVE
LOWERED POPS IN THE WEST FOR TODAY. MINOR TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
CHANGES MADE AS WELL. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
CONCERNS...IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 20Z. RAIN THIS MORNING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY AT WACO.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. AS
IT DOES SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THROUGH 20Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR THEREAFTER. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST 15-18Z SATURDAY.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  50   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  30   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  20   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KLUB 191213
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR
LEVELS AT LBB AND PVW BY MID AFTN...HOWEVER CDS SHOWS LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF LIFTING BEYOND MVFR BY THAT TIME. OCNL MVFR CIGS AT
CDS ALREADY FROM -RA SHOULD UNDOUBTEDLY REVERT TO IFR IN A FEW
HOURS AFTER PRECIP DEPARTS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SWIFT MOVING
IMPULSE.

BY LATE THIS EVNG...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT LOW CIGS WILL
EXPAND WEST ATOP THE LBB AND PVW AIRSPACES. PREFERRED MODELS IN
THIS MOIST SETUP FAVOR IFR DECKS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LOW VISBYS FROM FOG AND FREEZING FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MAKING A STEADY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR FT SUMNER/NM AT 09Z. SATELLITE
TRENDS REVEAL THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY EXIT OUR ERN ZONES BY 15Z OR SO...SO POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED
BACK MARKEDLY THEREAFTER WITH NO PRECIP MENTION BY LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY CONCERNS THE FIELD OF STRATUS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPS. WEAK FLOW AT THE
SURFACE IN THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR LOW CLOUDS REMAINING INTACT FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER
COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
TO MIX EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SIDED WITH THE REALISTIC-
LOOKING NAM WHICH KEEPS STRATUS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ALL AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WERE THEREFORE
NUDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONSALL.

ONCE DAYTIME MIXING CEASES WEST OF THE STRATUS...CLOUDS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL EXPANSION WESTWARD AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING OOZES
WEST. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ADVANCING STRATUS WOULD SEEM THE
MOST FAVORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME ICE
DEPOSITION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A BROAD MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY. MIN TEMPS FROM THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS
LOOK VERY MUCH ON PAR IN THIS FOGGY AND MOIST PATTERN WHICH AFTER
ALL WAS THE STORY NEARLY EVERY DAY LAST WEEK.

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS A PRETTY GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST SKIES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLEAR RESULTING IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY HOWEVER AS MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEAVING OUR AREA WITH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A SECOND PUSH OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY
AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DRY PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 10
KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SO WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LACKING RIGHT NOW AND
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE GFS
WANTS TO DEVELOP A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. SUPERBLEND
FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND OPTED TO BUMP UP TEMPS 2-3
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DEVELOPS THIS INTO A
CLOSED LOW. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNTOUCHED
FROM SUPERBLEND AS WE SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  26  53  26  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  29  54  30  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     46  31  54  32  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  29  54  30  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  30  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  31  54  32  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  31  54  33  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  35  53  37  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  34  53  37  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  36  54  39  60 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93






000
FXUS64 KLUB 191213
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR
LEVELS AT LBB AND PVW BY MID AFTN...HOWEVER CDS SHOWS LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF LIFTING BEYOND MVFR BY THAT TIME. OCNL MVFR CIGS AT
CDS ALREADY FROM -RA SHOULD UNDOUBTEDLY REVERT TO IFR IN A FEW
HOURS AFTER PRECIP DEPARTS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SWIFT MOVING
IMPULSE.

BY LATE THIS EVNG...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT LOW CIGS WILL
EXPAND WEST ATOP THE LBB AND PVW AIRSPACES. PREFERRED MODELS IN
THIS MOIST SETUP FAVOR IFR DECKS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LOW VISBYS FROM FOG AND FREEZING FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MAKING A STEADY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR FT SUMNER/NM AT 09Z. SATELLITE
TRENDS REVEAL THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY EXIT OUR ERN ZONES BY 15Z OR SO...SO POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED
BACK MARKEDLY THEREAFTER WITH NO PRECIP MENTION BY LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY CONCERNS THE FIELD OF STRATUS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPS. WEAK FLOW AT THE
SURFACE IN THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR LOW CLOUDS REMAINING INTACT FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER
COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
TO MIX EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SIDED WITH THE REALISTIC-
LOOKING NAM WHICH KEEPS STRATUS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ALL AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WERE THEREFORE
NUDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONSALL.

ONCE DAYTIME MIXING CEASES WEST OF THE STRATUS...CLOUDS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL EXPANSION WESTWARD AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING OOZES
WEST. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ADVANCING STRATUS WOULD SEEM THE
MOST FAVORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME ICE
DEPOSITION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A BROAD MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY. MIN TEMPS FROM THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS
LOOK VERY MUCH ON PAR IN THIS FOGGY AND MOIST PATTERN WHICH AFTER
ALL WAS THE STORY NEARLY EVERY DAY LAST WEEK.

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS A PRETTY GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST SKIES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLEAR RESULTING IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY HOWEVER AS MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEAVING OUR AREA WITH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A SECOND PUSH OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY
AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DRY PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 10
KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SO WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LACKING RIGHT NOW AND
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE GFS
WANTS TO DEVELOP A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. SUPERBLEND
FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND OPTED TO BUMP UP TEMPS 2-3
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DEVELOPS THIS INTO A
CLOSED LOW. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNTOUCHED
FROM SUPERBLEND AS WE SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  26  53  26  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  29  54  30  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     46  31  54  32  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  29  54  30  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  30  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  31  54  32  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  31  54  33  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  35  53  37  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  34  53  37  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  36  54  39  60 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93





000
FXUS64 KHGX 191207
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
607 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
A TAPERING OFF OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EARLY
PERIOD HIGHER FREQUENCY OF MORE MODERATE RAIN AND THUNDER LEADING
TO IFR CATS...TRANSITIONING TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. A LATE
DAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL AID IN SCOURING OUT LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN...BUT WILL CREATE A LOW ENOUGH MOIST INVERSION TO MAINTAIN
IFR CATS IN PLACE FROM MID-LATE FRIDAY ENDING THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THRU 3 AM...THE AREA`S
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES STRETCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM THE FRELSBURG AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
HOUSTON TO THE MOSS HILL AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRODUCING ACTIVITY
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WFO LCH FORECAST AREA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND LOWERING VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOL UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
GULF ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONT PUSHING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH...WILL HOIST CAUTION FLAGS.
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SLACKENING WEEKEND OFFSHORE GRADIENT TAKES NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS FALLING TO UNDER THREE FEET PER
MONDAY`S PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 191207
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
607 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
A TAPERING OFF OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EARLY
PERIOD HIGHER FREQUENCY OF MORE MODERATE RAIN AND THUNDER LEADING
TO IFR CATS...TRANSITIONING TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. A LATE
DAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL AID IN SCOURING OUT LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN...BUT WILL CREATE A LOW ENOUGH MOIST INVERSION TO MAINTAIN
IFR CATS IN PLACE FROM MID-LATE FRIDAY ENDING THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THRU 3 AM...THE AREA`S
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES STRETCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM THE FRELSBURG AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
HOUSTON TO THE MOSS HILL AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRODUCING ACTIVITY
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WFO LCH FORECAST AREA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND LOWERING VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOL UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
GULF ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONT PUSHING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH...WILL HOIST CAUTION FLAGS.
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SLACKENING WEEKEND OFFSHORE GRADIENT TAKES NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS FALLING TO UNDER THREE FEET PER
MONDAY`S PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 191207
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
607 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
A TAPERING OFF OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EARLY
PERIOD HIGHER FREQUENCY OF MORE MODERATE RAIN AND THUNDER LEADING
TO IFR CATS...TRANSITIONING TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. A LATE
DAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL AID IN SCOURING OUT LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN...BUT WILL CREATE A LOW ENOUGH MOIST INVERSION TO MAINTAIN
IFR CATS IN PLACE FROM MID-LATE FRIDAY ENDING THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THRU 3 AM...THE AREA`S
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES STRETCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM THE FRELSBURG AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
HOUSTON TO THE MOSS HILL AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRODUCING ACTIVITY
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WFO LCH FORECAST AREA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND LOWERING VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOL UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
GULF ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONT PUSHING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH...WILL HOIST CAUTION FLAGS.
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SLACKENING WEEKEND OFFSHORE GRADIENT TAKES NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS FALLING TO UNDER THREE FEET PER
MONDAY`S PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 191207
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
607 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
A TAPERING OFF OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EARLY
PERIOD HIGHER FREQUENCY OF MORE MODERATE RAIN AND THUNDER LEADING
TO IFR CATS...TRANSITIONING TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING. A LATE
DAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL AID IN SCOURING OUT LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN...BUT WILL CREATE A LOW ENOUGH MOIST INVERSION TO MAINTAIN
IFR CATS IN PLACE FROM MID-LATE FRIDAY ENDING THROUGH SUNRISE
SATURDAY. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THRU 3 AM...THE AREA`S
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES STRETCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM THE FRELSBURG AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
HOUSTON TO THE MOSS HILL AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRODUCING ACTIVITY
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WFO LCH FORECAST AREA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND LOWERING VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOL UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
GULF ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  42

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONT PUSHING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH...WILL HOIST CAUTION FLAGS.
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SLACKENING WEEKEND OFFSHORE GRADIENT TAKES NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS FALLING TO UNDER THREE FEET PER
MONDAY`S PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KBRO 191159
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
559 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TX PROVIDING
LIFT ALOFT AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED LGT ELEVATED SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN AFTER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...CIGS WILL BE LIMITING BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MUCH OF THE DAY BECAUSE OF OVERRUNNING. SOME VSBY
REDUCTION IN MORNING FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LWR VALLEY WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH LATER TODAY AS
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS PROVIDING SOME
LIFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE KBRO CWA
TO WORK WITH... WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 KFT AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIPS BY OVER HEAD...AND ALREADY SEEING
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
IN THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON HIGH PRESS AND NORTH
WINDS. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LIE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEFT TO
THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
OVERRUNNING...AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER...OR IVO THE RIO GRANDE.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EVEN AS THE
MID LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHWEST CAPPING FLOW AT H7...OR 10 KFT...WILL
SEE TO THAT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 50 AT KBRO AND KSPI.
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...OR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL THUS NOT REALLY ALLOW FOR A CLEARING OUT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL S/W
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURE THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH CHANCES WANING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND S/W TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DRY AIR WORKS IN ON WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HEART OF THE NATION
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM SO HAVE EDGED WINDS
UP WHILE NUDGING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY. HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS MOISTURE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST PRECIPITATION THERE. SURFACE RIDGING WORKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NEXT S/W
TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. WAA AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS JUMPING
UP TO THE MIDDLE 70S... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES... AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN TO FRESH OR STRONG NORTH LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN WITH A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WHEN NORTH WINDS ON THE GULF WILL APPROACH 20 KTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO JUST SHY OF SEVEN FEET. THUS...A FEW HOURS OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS SETTLING
DOWN THE REST OF SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE SEAS AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/51





000
FXUS64 KBRO 191159
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
559 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WEST TX PROVIDING
LIFT ALOFT AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED LGT ELEVATED SHOWERS. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN AFTER THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. EVEN SO...CIGS WILL BE LIMITING BETWEEN
IFR AND MVFR MUCH OF THE DAY BECAUSE OF OVERRUNNING. SOME VSBY
REDUCTION IN MORNING FOG WILL ALSO OCCUR. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE
LWR VALLEY WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH LATER TODAY AS
UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS PROVIDING SOME
LIFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE KBRO CWA
TO WORK WITH... WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 KFT AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIPS BY OVER HEAD...AND ALREADY SEEING
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
IN THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON HIGH PRESS AND NORTH
WINDS. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LIE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEFT TO
THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
OVERRUNNING...AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER...OR IVO THE RIO GRANDE.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EVEN AS THE
MID LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHWEST CAPPING FLOW AT H7...OR 10 KFT...WILL
SEE TO THAT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 50 AT KBRO AND KSPI.
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...OR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL THUS NOT REALLY ALLOW FOR A CLEARING OUT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL S/W
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURE THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH CHANCES WANING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND S/W TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DRY AIR WORKS IN ON WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HEART OF THE NATION
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM SO HAVE EDGED WINDS
UP WHILE NUDGING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY. HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS MOISTURE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST PRECIPITATION THERE. SURFACE RIDGING WORKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NEXT S/W
TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. WAA AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS JUMPING
UP TO THE MIDDLE 70S... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES... AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN TO FRESH OR STRONG NORTH LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN WITH A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WHEN NORTH WINDS ON THE GULF WILL APPROACH 20 KTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO JUST SHY OF SEVEN FEET. THUS...A FEW HOURS OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS SETTLING
DOWN THE REST OF SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE SEAS AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/51






000
FXUS64 KEWX 191156 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
556 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014


.AVIATION... /12Z TAF CYCLE/
IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING AS
OF 12Z AS -SHRA/-DZ AND LOW CIGS COMBINE TO HAMPER VISIBILITIES IN
THE 2-5SM RANGE. -SHRA/DZ FOR I-35 TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
16-18Z TIMEFRAME WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. KDRT
CURRENTLY MVFR (AT 12Z) BUT IFR CIGS LURK JUST NORTH AND WILL
LIKELY INFILTRATE OVER SITE NEXT HOUR. SLOW MVFR IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN WITH VFR POSSIBLE FOR KDRT. HOWEVER, NAM12
IS MORE BULLISH THAN GFS ON KEEPING CLOUDS AT KDRT AND WILL
MONITOR IF VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH CIG AND VIS DROPS DUE TO PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG 20/10-15Z. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  60  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  60  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  70  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  30  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  60  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  50  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  50  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00





000
FXUS64 KEWX 191156 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
556 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014


.AVIATION... /12Z TAF CYCLE/
IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING AS
OF 12Z AS -SHRA/-DZ AND LOW CIGS COMBINE TO HAMPER VISIBILITIES IN
THE 2-5SM RANGE. -SHRA/DZ FOR I-35 TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
16-18Z TIMEFRAME WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. KDRT
CURRENTLY MVFR (AT 12Z) BUT IFR CIGS LURK JUST NORTH AND WILL
LIKELY INFILTRATE OVER SITE NEXT HOUR. SLOW MVFR IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH AFTN WITH VFR POSSIBLE FOR KDRT. HOWEVER, NAM12
IS MORE BULLISH THAN GFS ON KEEPING CLOUDS AT KDRT AND WILL
MONITOR IF VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH CIG AND VIS DROPS DUE TO PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG 20/10-15Z. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 KT OR
LESS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  60  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  60  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  70  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  30  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  60  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  50  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  50  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00






000
FXUS64 KFWD 191154 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 20Z. RAIN THIS MORNING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY AT WACO.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. AS
IT DOES SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THROUGH 20Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR THEREAFTER. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST 15-18Z SATURDAY.


58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  50   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  50   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/84






000
FXUS64 KFWD 191154 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 20Z. RAIN THIS MORNING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY AT WACO.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. AS
IT DOES SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THROUGH 20Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR THEREAFTER. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST 15-18Z SATURDAY.


58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  50   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  50   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/84







000
FXUS64 KSJT 191147
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
547 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Initially poor conditions should gradually improve throughout the
day. IFR to LIFR conditions, mainly due to low CIGS, are prevalent
across the area this morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
are moving out of the area, and are likely to end for the most
part before noon today. However, behind a cold front today, low
clouds are expected to persist at least into the early afternoon
hours, while gradually lifting to MVFR. Have kept a brief period
of VFR conditions in the TAFs for this afternoon and early
evening. With the cold air mass still in place tonight, we could
see these low clouds redevelop after 00Z, so have brought MVFR
CIGS back into the forecast after 00Z tonight at all sites. Winds
will remain generally northeast today, while slowly veering to the
east or southeast tonight. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms are
currently affecting areas mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo
to Junction line. A cold front is making progress southward
resulting in cooler/drier air and northeast winds of around 10
mph. The cold front as of 3 AM was moving through the I-10
corridor area. The upper level trough/low bringing the large scale
lift into the area was centered near the TX/NM border northwest of
Lubbock, with much drier air rotating around the southern end of
the cyclonic flow into our forecast area. This trough will
continue moving east/northeast today. The drier air is showing its
effects in our southwestern counties already where precipitation
looks to be over. With the best lift/moisture moving northeast
today, have adjusted PoPs downward after 12Z this morning,
especially for our southwestern counties. We may see lingering
scattered activity this morning generally north and east of a
Sterling City to Ballinger to Junction line, and then an end to
most of the precipitation after 18Z, and continued dry overnight.

Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler today with upper 40s
expected along and north of the I-20 corridor, ranging to the mid
50s along the I-10 highway. Lows tonight will drop into the lower
40s, with some low lying areas and river valleys dropping into the
30s. Do not expect to see freezing temperatures as dewpoint values
are expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Christmas Day)

A shortwave upper trough will move east across the southwestern
states on Saturday, and across west central Texas on Sunday morning.
Only some cloud cover is expected in our area with no rainfall from
this weak system. Southeast winds on Saturday will veer to the
south Saturday night, and to the southwest on Sunday as a surface
trough enters the area. With more sunshine, temperatures will be
a few degrees warmer on Sunday.

An upper trough will deepen over the Plains and Midwest on Monday,
with a closed low developing over southeastern South Dakota. The
GFS and ECMWF differ in handling of this system during the week
across the eastern half of the U.S. With the associated cold
front, the GFS is a little stronger and brings the front south
across our area a little sooner than the ECMWF. Timing of the
front could curtail the warmup Monday in our far northern
counties. Looks warm ahead of the front for our central and
southern counties. Currently carrying highs in the upper 60s/
around 70 degrees, but these highs may need to be increased if
subsequent models show increased 850 mb temperatures with low-
level westerly flow and downsloping effects.

The 00Z models indicate a potential for some light rain to develop
in our northern counties and toward the Red River Monday night,
as a disturbance moves into the base of the aforementioned
deepening upper trough. Holding off with any mentionable PoPs for
now, and will see if subsequent models are consistent with this
setup.

Should have increased/gusty north winds following the cold frontal
passage and continuing into the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be
cooler, but sunshine during the day will help to partially offset the
cold air advection. With the surface ridge axis progged to shift into
our area, lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the 30s with
better radiational cooling.

Dry and warmer conditions are indicated for Wednesday and Thursday.
A return to above normal temperatures is expected, especially on
Christmas Day with south-southwest low-level flow and 850 mb
thermal ridging.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  35  55  40  58 /  30   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  54  38  58  40  61 /  10   5   5   5   5
Junction  56  38  57  40  59 /  30   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSJT 191147
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
547 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Initially poor conditions should gradually improve throughout the
day. IFR to LIFR conditions, mainly due to low CIGS, are prevalent
across the area this morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
are moving out of the area, and are likely to end for the most
part before noon today. However, behind a cold front today, low
clouds are expected to persist at least into the early afternoon
hours, while gradually lifting to MVFR. Have kept a brief period
of VFR conditions in the TAFs for this afternoon and early
evening. With the cold air mass still in place tonight, we could
see these low clouds redevelop after 00Z, so have brought MVFR
CIGS back into the forecast after 00Z tonight at all sites. Winds
will remain generally northeast today, while slowly veering to the
east or southeast tonight. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms are
currently affecting areas mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo
to Junction line. A cold front is making progress southward
resulting in cooler/drier air and northeast winds of around 10
mph. The cold front as of 3 AM was moving through the I-10
corridor area. The upper level trough/low bringing the large scale
lift into the area was centered near the TX/NM border northwest of
Lubbock, with much drier air rotating around the southern end of
the cyclonic flow into our forecast area. This trough will
continue moving east/northeast today. The drier air is showing its
effects in our southwestern counties already where precipitation
looks to be over. With the best lift/moisture moving northeast
today, have adjusted PoPs downward after 12Z this morning,
especially for our southwestern counties. We may see lingering
scattered activity this morning generally north and east of a
Sterling City to Ballinger to Junction line, and then an end to
most of the precipitation after 18Z, and continued dry overnight.

Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler today with upper 40s
expected along and north of the I-20 corridor, ranging to the mid
50s along the I-10 highway. Lows tonight will drop into the lower
40s, with some low lying areas and river valleys dropping into the
30s. Do not expect to see freezing temperatures as dewpoint values
are expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

20

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Christmas Day)

A shortwave upper trough will move east across the southwestern
states on Saturday, and across west central Texas on Sunday morning.
Only some cloud cover is expected in our area with no rainfall from
this weak system. Southeast winds on Saturday will veer to the
south Saturday night, and to the southwest on Sunday as a surface
trough enters the area. With more sunshine, temperatures will be
a few degrees warmer on Sunday.

An upper trough will deepen over the Plains and Midwest on Monday,
with a closed low developing over southeastern South Dakota. The
GFS and ECMWF differ in handling of this system during the week
across the eastern half of the U.S. With the associated cold
front, the GFS is a little stronger and brings the front south
across our area a little sooner than the ECMWF. Timing of the
front could curtail the warmup Monday in our far northern
counties. Looks warm ahead of the front for our central and
southern counties. Currently carrying highs in the upper 60s/
around 70 degrees, but these highs may need to be increased if
subsequent models show increased 850 mb temperatures with low-
level westerly flow and downsloping effects.

The 00Z models indicate a potential for some light rain to develop
in our northern counties and toward the Red River Monday night,
as a disturbance moves into the base of the aforementioned
deepening upper trough. Holding off with any mentionable PoPs for
now, and will see if subsequent models are consistent with this
setup.

Should have increased/gusty north winds following the cold frontal
passage and continuing into the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be
cooler, but sunshine during the day will help to partially offset the
cold air advection. With the surface ridge axis progged to shift into
our area, lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the 30s with
better radiational cooling.

Dry and warmer conditions are indicated for Wednesday and Thursday.
A return to above normal temperatures is expected, especially on
Christmas Day with south-southwest low-level flow and 850 mb
thermal ridging.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  35  55  40  58 /  30   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  54  38  58  40  61 /  10   5   5   5   5
Junction  56  38  57  40  59 /  30   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KCRP 191146 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
546 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE MRNG ACROSS
S TX XCPT AT KCRP WHERE MVFR WILL BE MORE LIKELY. IMPROVEMENT
XPCTD AT KLRD THIS AFTN WHERE MVFR/VFR WILL BE LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN /ALBEIT LATER/ XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI WHILE
KVCT MAY PREVAIL AT IFR THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF SHRA AND
ISO TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THRU THE MRNG WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS
AFTN...ASIDE FROM LOW CIGS. CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN TO IFR LEVELS
/POSSIBLY LOWER/ AREAWIDE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. VRB WINDS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BECOMING NRLY THRU THE DAY...AND
INCREASING IN INTENSITY. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SOME TONIGHT...BUT
STRONGEST AT KCRP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  50  59  50  63  /  70  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          62  48  59  45  62  /  90  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            65  50  60  50  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             70  50  58  49  64  /  70  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          69  50  58  51  62  /  80  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           62  45  59  46  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  51  60  50  64  /  60  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       70  52  58  53  62  /  70  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 191146 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
546 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE MRNG ACROSS
S TX XCPT AT KCRP WHERE MVFR WILL BE MORE LIKELY. IMPROVEMENT
XPCTD AT KLRD THIS AFTN WHERE MVFR/VFR WILL BE LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN /ALBEIT LATER/ XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI WHILE
KVCT MAY PREVAIL AT IFR THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF SHRA AND
ISO TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THRU THE MRNG WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS
AFTN...ASIDE FROM LOW CIGS. CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN TO IFR LEVELS
/POSSIBLY LOWER/ AREAWIDE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. VRB WINDS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BECOMING NRLY THRU THE DAY...AND
INCREASING IN INTENSITY. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SOME TONIGHT...BUT
STRONGEST AT KCRP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  50  59  50  63  /  70  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          62  48  59  45  62  /  90  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            65  50  60  50  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             70  50  58  49  64  /  70  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          69  50  58  51  62  /  80  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           62  45  59  46  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  51  60  50  64  /  60  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       70  52  58  53  62  /  70  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 191146 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
546 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE MRNG ACROSS
S TX XCPT AT KCRP WHERE MVFR WILL BE MORE LIKELY. IMPROVEMENT
XPCTD AT KLRD THIS AFTN WHERE MVFR/VFR WILL BE LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN /ALBEIT LATER/ XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI WHILE
KVCT MAY PREVAIL AT IFR THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF SHRA AND
ISO TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THRU THE MRNG WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS
AFTN...ASIDE FROM LOW CIGS. CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN TO IFR LEVELS
/POSSIBLY LOWER/ AREAWIDE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. VRB WINDS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BECOMING NRLY THRU THE DAY...AND
INCREASING IN INTENSITY. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SOME TONIGHT...BUT
STRONGEST AT KCRP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  50  59  50  63  /  70  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          62  48  59  45  62  /  90  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            65  50  60  50  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             70  50  58  49  64  /  70  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          69  50  58  51  62  /  80  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           62  45  59  46  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  51  60  50  64  /  60  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       70  52  58  53  62  /  70  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 191146 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
546 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE MRNG ACROSS
S TX XCPT AT KCRP WHERE MVFR WILL BE MORE LIKELY. IMPROVEMENT
XPCTD AT KLRD THIS AFTN WHERE MVFR/VFR WILL BE LIKELY. ADDITIONAL
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTN /ALBEIT LATER/ XPCTD AT KCRP/KALI WHILE
KVCT MAY PREVAIL AT IFR THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF SHRA AND
ISO TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT KCRP/KVCT/KALI THRU THE MRNG WHICH
WILL LEAD TO TEMPO IFR/LIFR VSBYS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS
AFTN...ASIDE FROM LOW CIGS. CIGS MAY LOWER AGAIN TO IFR LEVELS
/POSSIBLY LOWER/ AREAWIDE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. VRB WINDS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD BECOMING NRLY THRU THE DAY...AND
INCREASING IN INTENSITY. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE SOME TONIGHT...BUT
STRONGEST AT KCRP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  50  59  50  63  /  70  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          62  48  59  45  62  /  90  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            65  50  60  50  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             70  50  58  49  64  /  70  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          69  50  58  51  62  /  80  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           62  45  59  46  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  51  60  50  64  /  60  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       70  52  58  53  62  /  70  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KMAF 191104
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191104
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191104
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191104
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 191101
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
501 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 191101
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
501 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 191101
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
501 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 191101
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
501 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE START
OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LOWEST CATEGORY GOES TO KAMA WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS AS EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. THE DEPARTURE HAS ALLOWED CEILINGS AND VISBI TO DROP
SLIGHTLY. KDHT FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH IFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER...KDHT IS
NEAR THE CLEARING LINE OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE
LOWER DECK TO EXPAND/LOWER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A DROP TO
LIFR WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF ISSUANCE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT. KGUY IS THE BEST OFF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BUT IS RIGHT
ON THE FENCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR.

THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AT EACH
TERMINAL TO MVFR/VFR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...KAMA MAY STAY AT MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO REACH VFR
AROUND NOON.

OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS/VISBI TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03





000
FXUS64 KSJT 191043
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
443 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms are
currently affecting areas mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo
to Junction line. A cold front is making progress southward
resulting in cooler/drier air and northeast winds of around 10
mph. The cold front as of 3 AM was moving through the I-10
corridor area. The upper level trough/low bringing the large scale
lift into the area was centered near the TX/NM border northwest of
Lubbock, with much drier air rotating around the southern end of
the cyclonic flow into our forecast area. This trough will
continue moving east/northeast today. The drier air is showing its
effects in our southwestern counties already where precipitation
looks to be over. With the best lift/moisture moving northeast
today, have adjusted PoPs downward after 12Z this morning,
especially for our southwestern counties. We may see lingering
scattered activity this morning generally north and east of a
Sterling City to Ballinger to Junction line, and then an end to
most of the precipitation after 18Z, and continued dry overnight.

Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler today with upper 40s
expected along and north of the I-20 corridor, ranging to the mid
50s along the I-10 highway. Lows tonight will drop into the lower
40s, with some low lying areas and river valleys dropping into the
30s. Do not expect to see freezing temperatures as dewpoint values
are expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Christmas Day)

A shortwave upper trough will move east across the southwestern
states on Saturday, and across west central Texas on Sunday morning.
Only some cloud cover is expected in our area with no rainfall from
this weak system. Southeast winds on Saturday will veer to the
south Saturday night, and to the southwest on Sunday as a surface
trough enters the area. With more sunshine, temperatures will be
a few degrees warmer on Sunday.

An upper trough will deepen over the Plains and Midwest on Monday,
with a closed low developing over southeastern South Dakota. The
GFS and ECMWF differ in handling of this system during the week
across the eastern half of the U.S. With the associated cold
front, the GFS is a little stronger and brings the front south
across our area a little sooner than the ECMWF. Timing of the
front could curtail the warmup Monday in our far northern
counties. Looks warm ahead of the front for our central and
southern counties. Currently carrying highs in the upper 60s/
around 70 degrees, but these highs may need to be increased if
subsequent models show increased 850 mb temperatures with low-
level westerly flow and downsloping effects.

The 00Z models indicate a potential for some light rain to develop
in our northern counties and toward the Red River Monday night,
as a disturbance moves into the base of the aforementioned
deepening upper trough. Holding off with any mentionable PoPs for
now, and will see if subsequent models are consistent with this
setup.

Should have increased/gusty north winds following the cold frontal
passage and continuing into the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be
cooler, but sunshine during the day will help to partially offset the
cold air advection. With the surface ridge axis progged to shift into
our area, lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the 30s with
better radiational cooling.

Dry and warmer conditions are indicated for Wednesday and Thursday.
A return to above normal temperatures is expected, especially on
Christmas Day with south-southwest low-level flow and 850 mb
thermal ridging.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  35  55  40  58 /  30   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  54  38  58  40  61 /  10   5   5   5   5
Junction  56  38  57  40  59 /  30   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KSJT 191043
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
443 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms are
currently affecting areas mainly east of an Abilene to San Angelo
to Junction line. A cold front is making progress southward
resulting in cooler/drier air and northeast winds of around 10
mph. The cold front as of 3 AM was moving through the I-10
corridor area. The upper level trough/low bringing the large scale
lift into the area was centered near the TX/NM border northwest of
Lubbock, with much drier air rotating around the southern end of
the cyclonic flow into our forecast area. This trough will
continue moving east/northeast today. The drier air is showing its
effects in our southwestern counties already where precipitation
looks to be over. With the best lift/moisture moving northeast
today, have adjusted PoPs downward after 12Z this morning,
especially for our southwestern counties. We may see lingering
scattered activity this morning generally north and east of a
Sterling City to Ballinger to Junction line, and then an end to
most of the precipitation after 18Z, and continued dry overnight.

Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler today with upper 40s
expected along and north of the I-20 corridor, ranging to the mid
50s along the I-10 highway. Lows tonight will drop into the lower
40s, with some low lying areas and river valleys dropping into the
30s. Do not expect to see freezing temperatures as dewpoint values
are expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

20

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Christmas Day)

A shortwave upper trough will move east across the southwestern
states on Saturday, and across west central Texas on Sunday morning.
Only some cloud cover is expected in our area with no rainfall from
this weak system. Southeast winds on Saturday will veer to the
south Saturday night, and to the southwest on Sunday as a surface
trough enters the area. With more sunshine, temperatures will be
a few degrees warmer on Sunday.

An upper trough will deepen over the Plains and Midwest on Monday,
with a closed low developing over southeastern South Dakota. The
GFS and ECMWF differ in handling of this system during the week
across the eastern half of the U.S. With the associated cold
front, the GFS is a little stronger and brings the front south
across our area a little sooner than the ECMWF. Timing of the
front could curtail the warmup Monday in our far northern
counties. Looks warm ahead of the front for our central and
southern counties. Currently carrying highs in the upper 60s/
around 70 degrees, but these highs may need to be increased if
subsequent models show increased 850 mb temperatures with low-
level westerly flow and downsloping effects.

The 00Z models indicate a potential for some light rain to develop
in our northern counties and toward the Red River Monday night,
as a disturbance moves into the base of the aforementioned
deepening upper trough. Holding off with any mentionable PoPs for
now, and will see if subsequent models are consistent with this
setup.

Should have increased/gusty north winds following the cold frontal
passage and continuing into the day Tuesday. Temperatures will be
cooler, but sunshine during the day will help to partially offset the
cold air advection. With the surface ridge axis progged to shift into
our area, lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the 30s with
better radiational cooling.

Dry and warmer conditions are indicated for Wednesday and Thursday.
A return to above normal temperatures is expected, especially on
Christmas Day with south-southwest low-level flow and 850 mb
thermal ridging.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  48  35  55  40  58 /  30   5   5   5  10
San Angelo  54  38  58  40  61 /  10   5   5   5   5
Junction  56  38  57  40  59 /  30   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KCRP 191024
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
424 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...BUSY THIS MORNING. A
SURFACE FRONT...AS OF WRITING...WAS ANALYZED /BASED OFF OBS AND
MSAS/ TO BE LOCATED FROM ROCKPORT TO JUST NORTH OF ALICE TO FREER
TO NEAR CARRIZO SPRINGS. AT THE MID LEVELS...A POTENT S/W TROUGH
WAS MOVING ACROSS SW TX WHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE CWA WAS IN
THE RRQ OF AN ESTIMATED 105 KT JET STREAK /H25/. WAA HAS
INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVER PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS A RESULT. AM EXPECTING
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
AS SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES DUE TO APPROACH OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
S/W TROUGH. MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN CWA
ARE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MORNING.
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO EASTERN THIRD OF CWA. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DUE TO POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR WEBB COUNTY AS A RESULT. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING /BRINGING AN END TO FOGGY
CONDITIONS/ WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE EAST.
DECIDING UPON FORECAST MAX TEMPS IS A HEADACHE AS HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE 50S BY AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIKELY REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY DIURNAL WARMING TODAY...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME CLEARING OCCURRING BY LATE IN THE
DAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP. TONIGHT...AN
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA...BUT WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA WEATHER OTHER THAN MAINTAINING SOME
CLOUD COVER. CAA AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED. COOL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLOUDIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST AND
SUNNIER ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AS THE TAIL OF THE
SOUTHERN JET SHIFTS SOUTH AND EASTWARD. HIGHER MOISTURE REMAINS IN
THE LOW LVLS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG
WITH UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THESE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY
EVENING. BY MONDAY SURFACE AND LOW LVL FLOW TAKES ON A SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION...BRINGING DRIER...WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. FROPA TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE DIFFERENT BETWEEN MODELS...WITH THE GFS STILL AHEAD
OF THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HRS (WITH STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL). THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THOUGH...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS TIME. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY...SWIFTLY SHIFTING EAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW RAMPS UP NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AT THE END AND JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY CONSISTENCY WITH
REGARD TO TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  50  59  50  63  /  70  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          62  48  59  45  62  /  90  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            65  50  60  50  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             70  50  58  49  64  /  70  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          69  50  58  51  62  /  80  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           62  45  59  46  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  51  60  50  64  /  60  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       70  52  58  53  62  /  70  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 191024
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
424 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...BUSY THIS MORNING. A
SURFACE FRONT...AS OF WRITING...WAS ANALYZED /BASED OFF OBS AND
MSAS/ TO BE LOCATED FROM ROCKPORT TO JUST NORTH OF ALICE TO FREER
TO NEAR CARRIZO SPRINGS. AT THE MID LEVELS...A POTENT S/W TROUGH
WAS MOVING ACROSS SW TX WHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE CWA WAS IN
THE RRQ OF AN ESTIMATED 105 KT JET STREAK /H25/. WAA HAS
INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVER PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS A RESULT. AM EXPECTING
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
AS SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES DUE TO APPROACH OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
S/W TROUGH. MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN CWA
ARE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MORNING.
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO EASTERN THIRD OF CWA. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DUE TO POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR WEBB COUNTY AS A RESULT. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING /BRINGING AN END TO FOGGY
CONDITIONS/ WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE EAST.
DECIDING UPON FORECAST MAX TEMPS IS A HEADACHE AS HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE 50S BY AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIKELY REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY DIURNAL WARMING TODAY...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME CLEARING OCCURRING BY LATE IN THE
DAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP. TONIGHT...AN
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA...BUT WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA WEATHER OTHER THAN MAINTAINING SOME
CLOUD COVER. CAA AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED. COOL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLOUDIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST AND
SUNNIER ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AS THE TAIL OF THE
SOUTHERN JET SHIFTS SOUTH AND EASTWARD. HIGHER MOISTURE REMAINS IN
THE LOW LVLS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG
WITH UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THESE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY
EVENING. BY MONDAY SURFACE AND LOW LVL FLOW TAKES ON A SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION...BRINGING DRIER...WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. FROPA TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE DIFFERENT BETWEEN MODELS...WITH THE GFS STILL AHEAD
OF THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HRS (WITH STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL). THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THOUGH...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS TIME. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY...SWIFTLY SHIFTING EAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW RAMPS UP NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AT THE END AND JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY CONSISTENCY WITH
REGARD TO TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  50  59  50  63  /  70  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          62  48  59  45  62  /  90  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            65  50  60  50  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             70  50  58  49  64  /  70  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          69  50  58  51  62  /  80  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           62  45  59  46  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  51  60  50  64  /  60  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       70  52  58  53  62  /  70  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 191024
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
424 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...BUSY THIS MORNING. A
SURFACE FRONT...AS OF WRITING...WAS ANALYZED /BASED OFF OBS AND
MSAS/ TO BE LOCATED FROM ROCKPORT TO JUST NORTH OF ALICE TO FREER
TO NEAR CARRIZO SPRINGS. AT THE MID LEVELS...A POTENT S/W TROUGH
WAS MOVING ACROSS SW TX WHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE CWA WAS IN
THE RRQ OF AN ESTIMATED 105 KT JET STREAK /H25/. WAA HAS
INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVER PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS A RESULT. AM EXPECTING
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
AS SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES DUE TO APPROACH OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
S/W TROUGH. MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN CWA
ARE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MORNING.
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO EASTERN THIRD OF CWA. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DUE TO POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR WEBB COUNTY AS A RESULT. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING /BRINGING AN END TO FOGGY
CONDITIONS/ WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE EAST.
DECIDING UPON FORECAST MAX TEMPS IS A HEADACHE AS HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE 50S BY AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIKELY REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY DIURNAL WARMING TODAY...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME CLEARING OCCURRING BY LATE IN THE
DAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP. TONIGHT...AN
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA...BUT WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA WEATHER OTHER THAN MAINTAINING SOME
CLOUD COVER. CAA AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED. COOL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLOUDIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST AND
SUNNIER ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AS THE TAIL OF THE
SOUTHERN JET SHIFTS SOUTH AND EASTWARD. HIGHER MOISTURE REMAINS IN
THE LOW LVLS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG
WITH UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THESE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY
EVENING. BY MONDAY SURFACE AND LOW LVL FLOW TAKES ON A SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION...BRINGING DRIER...WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. FROPA TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE DIFFERENT BETWEEN MODELS...WITH THE GFS STILL AHEAD
OF THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HRS (WITH STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL). THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THOUGH...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS TIME. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY...SWIFTLY SHIFTING EAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW RAMPS UP NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AT THE END AND JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY CONSISTENCY WITH
REGARD TO TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  50  59  50  63  /  70  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          62  48  59  45  62  /  90  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            65  50  60  50  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             70  50  58  49  64  /  70  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          69  50  58  51  62  /  80  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           62  45  59  46  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  51  60  50  64  /  60  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       70  52  58  53  62  /  70  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 191024
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
424 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...BUSY THIS MORNING. A
SURFACE FRONT...AS OF WRITING...WAS ANALYZED /BASED OFF OBS AND
MSAS/ TO BE LOCATED FROM ROCKPORT TO JUST NORTH OF ALICE TO FREER
TO NEAR CARRIZO SPRINGS. AT THE MID LEVELS...A POTENT S/W TROUGH
WAS MOVING ACROSS SW TX WHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE CWA WAS IN
THE RRQ OF AN ESTIMATED 105 KT JET STREAK /H25/. WAA HAS
INTENSIFIED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVER PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS A RESULT. AM EXPECTING
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
AS SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES DUE TO APPROACH OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
S/W TROUGH. MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN CWA
ARE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE MORNING.
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO EASTERN THIRD OF CWA. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DUE TO POOLING OF LLVL MOISTURE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR WEBB COUNTY AS A RESULT. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING /BRINGING AN END TO FOGGY
CONDITIONS/ WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENDING BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE EAST.
DECIDING UPON FORECAST MAX TEMPS IS A HEADACHE AS HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE 50S BY AFTERNOON...AND THEN LIKELY REMAINING THERE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY...CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY DIURNAL WARMING TODAY...BUT SOME
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME CLEARING OCCURRING BY LATE IN THE
DAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP. TONIGHT...AN
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA...BUT WILL
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA WEATHER OTHER THAN MAINTAINING SOME
CLOUD COVER. CAA AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN THIRD OF CWA...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING AS FAR AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED. COOL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH CLOUDIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST AND
SUNNIER ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AS THE TAIL OF THE
SOUTHERN JET SHIFTS SOUTH AND EASTWARD. HIGHER MOISTURE REMAINS IN
THE LOW LVLS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN ZONES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG
WITH UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THESE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY
EVENING. BY MONDAY SURFACE AND LOW LVL FLOW TAKES ON A SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY DIRECTION...BRINGING DRIER...WARMER AIR TO THE REGION.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. FROPA TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE DIFFERENT BETWEEN MODELS...WITH THE GFS STILL AHEAD
OF THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HRS (WITH STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL). THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THOUGH...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE FIELD ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS TIME. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY...SWIFTLY SHIFTING EAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW RAMPS UP NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AT THE END AND JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY CONSISTENCY WITH
REGARD TO TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  50  59  50  63  /  70  10  10  20  30
VICTORIA          62  48  59  45  62  /  90  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            65  50  60  50  66  /  10  10  10  10  20
ALICE             70  50  58  49  64  /  70  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          69  50  58  51  62  /  80  10  10  20  30
COTULLA           62  45  59  46  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        72  51  60  50  64  /  60  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       70  52  58  53  62  /  70  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KLUB 191017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MAKING A STEADY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR FT SUMNER/NM AT 09Z. SATELLITE
TRENDS REVEAL THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY EXIT OUR ERN ZONES BY 15Z OR SO...SO POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED
BACK MARKEDLY THEREAFTER WITH NO PRECIP MENTION BY LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY CONCERNS THE FIELD OF STRATUS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPS. WEAK FLOW AT THE
SURFACE IN THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR LOW CLOUDS REMAINING INTACT FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER
COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
TO MIX EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SIDED WITH THE REALISTIC-
LOOKING NAM WHICH KEEPS STRATUS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ALL AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WERE THEREFORE
NUDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONSALL.

ONCE DAYTIME MIXING CEASES WEST OF THE STRATUS...CLOUDS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL EXPANSION WESTWARD AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING OOZES
WEST. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ADVANCING STRATUS WOULD SEEM THE
MOST FAVORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME ICE
DEPOSITION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A BROAD MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY. MIN TEMPS FROM THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS
LOOK VERY MUCH ON PAR IN THIS FOGGY AND MOIST PATTERN WHICH AFTER
ALL WAS THE STORY NEARLY EVERY DAY LAST WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS A PRETTY GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST SKIES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLEAR RESULTING IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY HOWEVER AS MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEAVING OUR AREA WITH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A SECOND PUSH OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY
AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DRY PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 10
KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SO WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LACKING RIGHT NOW AND
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE GFS
WANTS TO DEVELOP A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. SUPERBLEND
FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND OPTED TO BUMP UP TEMPS 2-3
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DEVELOPS THIS INTO A
CLOSED LOW. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNTOUCHED
FROM SUPERBLEND AS WE SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  26  53  26  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  29  54  30  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     46  31  54  32  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  29  54  30  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  30  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  31  54  32  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  31  54  33  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  35  53  37  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  34  53  37  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  36  54  39  60 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14






000
FXUS64 KLUB 191017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MAKING A STEADY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR FT SUMNER/NM AT 09Z. SATELLITE
TRENDS REVEAL THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY EXIT OUR ERN ZONES BY 15Z OR SO...SO POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED
BACK MARKEDLY THEREAFTER WITH NO PRECIP MENTION BY LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY CONCERNS THE FIELD OF STRATUS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPS. WEAK FLOW AT THE
SURFACE IN THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR LOW CLOUDS REMAINING INTACT FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER
COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
TO MIX EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SIDED WITH THE REALISTIC-
LOOKING NAM WHICH KEEPS STRATUS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ALL AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WERE THEREFORE
NUDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONSALL.

ONCE DAYTIME MIXING CEASES WEST OF THE STRATUS...CLOUDS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL EXPANSION WESTWARD AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING OOZES
WEST. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ADVANCING STRATUS WOULD SEEM THE
MOST FAVORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME ICE
DEPOSITION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A BROAD MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY. MIN TEMPS FROM THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS
LOOK VERY MUCH ON PAR IN THIS FOGGY AND MOIST PATTERN WHICH AFTER
ALL WAS THE STORY NEARLY EVERY DAY LAST WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS A PRETTY GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST SKIES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLEAR RESULTING IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY HOWEVER AS MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEAVING OUR AREA WITH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A SECOND PUSH OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY
AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DRY PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 10
KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SO WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LACKING RIGHT NOW AND
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE GFS
WANTS TO DEVELOP A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. SUPERBLEND
FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND OPTED TO BUMP UP TEMPS 2-3
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DEVELOPS THIS INTO A
CLOSED LOW. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNTOUCHED
FROM SUPERBLEND AS WE SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  26  53  26  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  29  54  30  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     46  31  54  32  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  29  54  30  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  30  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  31  54  32  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  31  54  33  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  35  53  37  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  34  53  37  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  36  54  39  60 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14






000
FXUS64 KLUB 191017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MAKING A STEADY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR FT SUMNER/NM AT 09Z. SATELLITE
TRENDS REVEAL THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY EXIT OUR ERN ZONES BY 15Z OR SO...SO POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED
BACK MARKEDLY THEREAFTER WITH NO PRECIP MENTION BY LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY CONCERNS THE FIELD OF STRATUS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPS. WEAK FLOW AT THE
SURFACE IN THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR LOW CLOUDS REMAINING INTACT FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER
COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
TO MIX EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SIDED WITH THE REALISTIC-
LOOKING NAM WHICH KEEPS STRATUS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ALL AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WERE THEREFORE
NUDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONSALL.

ONCE DAYTIME MIXING CEASES WEST OF THE STRATUS...CLOUDS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL EXPANSION WESTWARD AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING OOZES
WEST. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ADVANCING STRATUS WOULD SEEM THE
MOST FAVORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME ICE
DEPOSITION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A BROAD MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY. MIN TEMPS FROM THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS
LOOK VERY MUCH ON PAR IN THIS FOGGY AND MOIST PATTERN WHICH AFTER
ALL WAS THE STORY NEARLY EVERY DAY LAST WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS A PRETTY GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST SKIES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLEAR RESULTING IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY HOWEVER AS MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEAVING OUR AREA WITH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A SECOND PUSH OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY
AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DRY PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 10
KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SO WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LACKING RIGHT NOW AND
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE GFS
WANTS TO DEVELOP A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. SUPERBLEND
FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND OPTED TO BUMP UP TEMPS 2-3
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DEVELOPS THIS INTO A
CLOSED LOW. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNTOUCHED
FROM SUPERBLEND AS WE SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  26  53  26  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  29  54  30  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     46  31  54  32  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  29  54  30  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  30  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  31  54  32  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  31  54  33  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  35  53  37  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  34  53  37  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  36  54  39  60 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14






000
FXUS64 KLUB 191017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MAKING A STEADY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR FT SUMNER/NM AT 09Z. SATELLITE
TRENDS REVEAL THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY EXIT OUR ERN ZONES BY 15Z OR SO...SO POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED
BACK MARKEDLY THEREAFTER WITH NO PRECIP MENTION BY LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY CONCERNS THE FIELD OF STRATUS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPS. WEAK FLOW AT THE
SURFACE IN THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR LOW CLOUDS REMAINING INTACT FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER
COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
TO MIX EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SIDED WITH THE REALISTIC-
LOOKING NAM WHICH KEEPS STRATUS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ALL AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WERE THEREFORE
NUDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONSALL.

ONCE DAYTIME MIXING CEASES WEST OF THE STRATUS...CLOUDS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL EXPANSION WESTWARD AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING OOZES
WEST. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ADVANCING STRATUS WOULD SEEM THE
MOST FAVORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME ICE
DEPOSITION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A BROAD MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY. MIN TEMPS FROM THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS
LOOK VERY MUCH ON PAR IN THIS FOGGY AND MOIST PATTERN WHICH AFTER
ALL WAS THE STORY NEARLY EVERY DAY LAST WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS A PRETTY GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST SKIES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLEAR RESULTING IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY HOWEVER AS MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEAVING OUR AREA WITH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A SECOND PUSH OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY
AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DRY PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 10
KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SO WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LACKING RIGHT NOW AND
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE GFS
WANTS TO DEVELOP A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. SUPERBLEND
FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND OPTED TO BUMP UP TEMPS 2-3
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DEVELOPS THIS INTO A
CLOSED LOW. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNTOUCHED
FROM SUPERBLEND AS WE SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  26  53  26  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  29  54  30  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     46  31  54  32  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  29  54  30  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  30  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  31  54  32  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  31  54  33  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  35  53  37  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  34  53  37  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  36  54  39  60 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14






000
FXUS64 KLUB 191017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MAKING A STEADY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR FT SUMNER/NM AT 09Z. SATELLITE
TRENDS REVEAL THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY EXIT OUR ERN ZONES BY 15Z OR SO...SO POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED
BACK MARKEDLY THEREAFTER WITH NO PRECIP MENTION BY LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY CONCERNS THE FIELD OF STRATUS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPS. WEAK FLOW AT THE
SURFACE IN THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR LOW CLOUDS REMAINING INTACT FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER
COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
TO MIX EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SIDED WITH THE REALISTIC-
LOOKING NAM WHICH KEEPS STRATUS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ALL AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WERE THEREFORE
NUDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONSALL.

ONCE DAYTIME MIXING CEASES WEST OF THE STRATUS...CLOUDS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL EXPANSION WESTWARD AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING OOZES
WEST. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ADVANCING STRATUS WOULD SEEM THE
MOST FAVORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME ICE
DEPOSITION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A BROAD MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY. MIN TEMPS FROM THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS
LOOK VERY MUCH ON PAR IN THIS FOGGY AND MOIST PATTERN WHICH AFTER
ALL WAS THE STORY NEARLY EVERY DAY LAST WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS A PRETTY GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST SKIES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLEAR RESULTING IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY HOWEVER AS MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEAVING OUR AREA WITH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A SECOND PUSH OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY
AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DRY PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 10
KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SO WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LACKING RIGHT NOW AND
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE GFS
WANTS TO DEVELOP A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. SUPERBLEND
FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND OPTED TO BUMP UP TEMPS 2-3
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DEVELOPS THIS INTO A
CLOSED LOW. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNTOUCHED
FROM SUPERBLEND AS WE SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  26  53  26  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  29  54  30  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     46  31  54  32  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  29  54  30  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  30  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  31  54  32  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  31  54  33  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  35  53  37  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  34  53  37  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  36  54  39  60 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191013
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
313 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
YESTERDAY`S STORM SYSTEM EXITED THE REGION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
IN IT`S WAKE IS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH A COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE BORDERLAND FOR TODAY. EXPECT SEASONALLY
COOL HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS. SATURDAY REMAINS COOL WITH A PASSING UPPER WAVE THAT WILL
PASS DRY BUT PROVIDE A FEW MORE CLOUDS. CLEARING AND WARMING FOR
SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AS STORMS STAY WELL NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. SPEAKING OF CHRISTMAS...ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH TO BRING ABOUT A WINDY CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A HINT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING IN CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY
AND MILD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE YESTERDAY`S UPPER-
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ALREADY EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE REGION. ENHANCED IR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS...BUT OVERALL DISIPATING
CLOUD COVER. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS THE PCPN AREAS NOW
OVER W TX AND OUT OF THE CWFA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WE WILL SEE SOME FLAT FAIR WEATHER
CU...BUT GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE DEEP NW FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOL AND ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUS L50S
LOWLANDS...AND 30S MTNS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N AND NE
WITH RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENTS.

SATURDAY THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL MIX SHINSHINE WITH AN INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND...BUT NOT MUCH AS WINDS
STILL SHOW SOME NORTHERLY FETCH. MAX TEMPS UP 3-5 DEGREES AND
RIGHT AT THE SEASONAL NORMALS. SUNDAY THE TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM
AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT ON THE BACK SIDE OF SATURDAY`S
WAVE. CONTINUED DRY AS A STRENGTHENING WEST COAST HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOVES THE STORM TRACK N AND E
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF CHRISTMAS WEEK WE WILL STAY UNDER THE
DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG WEST COAST HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SLIGHT DIP EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND A
RELATIVELY WEAK COOL FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

CHRISTMAS DAY WE LOOK TO WELCOME THE ARRIVAL OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AS YET ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NW. CHRISTMAS WILL BE DRY AS THE STORM ARRIVES TOO LATE AND
POSSIBLY TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE RESULT...WITH TEMPRATURES RESPONDING BY SPIKING TO CLOSE TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG IN CHRISTMAS
NIGHT. THE ECMWF MODEL INDICATES PCPN MOVING OVER THE GILA
OVERNIGHT BUT THE OTHER MODELS KEEP IT DRY. FOR SO WE KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE MODEL EVOLUTION ON
THIS POST-CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z- 20/12Z...
EXITING STORM THIS AM WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE REGION
TODAY. A BIT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A THIN FAIR
WEATHER CU FIELD. VFR CONDITIONS TDY ALL TERMS. SKC-SCT050 WITH
LT N TO NW WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATEST STORM SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST
FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM DRIER CONDITIONS AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL AND SEASONAL TODAY AND SATURDAY...THEN A WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY AND MORESO FOR MONDAY AND MOST
OF CHRISTMAS WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25
PERCENT GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL. BREEZY TO WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY (THU) AS A DRY SHORT WAVE PASSES. MODELS
HIT THAT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DROP IN WITH THIS SYSTEM
CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW THAT IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY. THUS
GENERALLY DRY AND MILD FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 53  30  56  33  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           53  30  56  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              53  27  55  30  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  26  53  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  18  35  23  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  27  51  30  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             44  27  47  30  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  52  25  54  28  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               51  25  53  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      53  33  54  36  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               53  26  57  28  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            54  29  58  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              50  31  49  34  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  53  28  57  30  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  26  55  29  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  30  54  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           52  21  53  23  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   53  25  54  28  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  28  54  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               52  27  53  31  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 43  24  45  29  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               42  20  43  25  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                42  23  43  26  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 42  23  46  27  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  27  49  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               51  23  53  25  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            43  23  47  27  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  46  25  49  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   50  21  53  25  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              46  18  49  21  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 46  28  48  31  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  53  25  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 53  22  55  26  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          54  23  56  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              50  26  55  29  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191013
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
313 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
YESTERDAY`S STORM SYSTEM EXITED THE REGION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
IN IT`S WAKE IS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH A COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE BORDERLAND FOR TODAY. EXPECT SEASONALLY
COOL HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS. SATURDAY REMAINS COOL WITH A PASSING UPPER WAVE THAT WILL
PASS DRY BUT PROVIDE A FEW MORE CLOUDS. CLEARING AND WARMING FOR
SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AS STORMS STAY WELL NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. SPEAKING OF CHRISTMAS...ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH TO BRING ABOUT A WINDY CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A HINT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING IN CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY
AND MILD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE YESTERDAY`S UPPER-
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ALREADY EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE REGION. ENHANCED IR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS...BUT OVERALL DISIPATING
CLOUD COVER. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS THE PCPN AREAS NOW
OVER W TX AND OUT OF THE CWFA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WE WILL SEE SOME FLAT FAIR WEATHER
CU...BUT GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE DEEP NW FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOL AND ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUS L50S
LOWLANDS...AND 30S MTNS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N AND NE
WITH RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENTS.

SATURDAY THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL MIX SHINSHINE WITH AN INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND...BUT NOT MUCH AS WINDS
STILL SHOW SOME NORTHERLY FETCH. MAX TEMPS UP 3-5 DEGREES AND
RIGHT AT THE SEASONAL NORMALS. SUNDAY THE TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM
AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT ON THE BACK SIDE OF SATURDAY`S
WAVE. CONTINUED DRY AS A STRENGTHENING WEST COAST HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOVES THE STORM TRACK N AND E
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF CHRISTMAS WEEK WE WILL STAY UNDER THE
DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG WEST COAST HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SLIGHT DIP EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND A
RELATIVELY WEAK COOL FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

CHRISTMAS DAY WE LOOK TO WELCOME THE ARRIVAL OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AS YET ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NW. CHRISTMAS WILL BE DRY AS THE STORM ARRIVES TOO LATE AND
POSSIBLY TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE RESULT...WITH TEMPRATURES RESPONDING BY SPIKING TO CLOSE TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG IN CHRISTMAS
NIGHT. THE ECMWF MODEL INDICATES PCPN MOVING OVER THE GILA
OVERNIGHT BUT THE OTHER MODELS KEEP IT DRY. FOR SO WE KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE MODEL EVOLUTION ON
THIS POST-CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z- 20/12Z...
EXITING STORM THIS AM WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE REGION
TODAY. A BIT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A THIN FAIR
WEATHER CU FIELD. VFR CONDITIONS TDY ALL TERMS. SKC-SCT050 WITH
LT N TO NW WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATEST STORM SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST
FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM DRIER CONDITIONS AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL AND SEASONAL TODAY AND SATURDAY...THEN A WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY AND MORESO FOR MONDAY AND MOST
OF CHRISTMAS WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25
PERCENT GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL. BREEZY TO WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY (THU) AS A DRY SHORT WAVE PASSES. MODELS
HIT THAT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DROP IN WITH THIS SYSTEM
CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW THAT IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY. THUS
GENERALLY DRY AND MILD FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 53  30  56  33  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           53  30  56  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              53  27  55  30  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  26  53  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  18  35  23  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  27  51  30  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             44  27  47  30  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  52  25  54  28  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               51  25  53  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      53  33  54  36  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               53  26  57  28  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            54  29  58  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              50  31  49  34  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  53  28  57  30  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  26  55  29  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  30  54  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           52  21  53  23  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   53  25  54  28  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  28  54  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               52  27  53  31  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 43  24  45  29  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               42  20  43  25  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                42  23  43  26  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 42  23  46  27  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  27  49  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               51  23  53  25  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            43  23  47  27  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  46  25  49  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   50  21  53  25  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              46  18  49  21  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 46  28  48  31  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  53  25  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 53  22  55  26  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          54  23  56  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              50  26  55  29  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD





000
FXUS64 KAMA 191013
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                43  30  54  30  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  45  29  52  31  55 /  20   0   0   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              46  25  52  25  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  44  32  57  34  58 /  20   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              43  28  55  28  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  44  30  56  29  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               42  34  52  33  55 /  30   5   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 43  24  53  23  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  46  27  54  26  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                46  28  56  28  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  31  51  32  54 /  20   0   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   41  33  49  31  53 /  30   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                44  36  51  35  53 /  30   5   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              44  36  51  37  53 /  40   5   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KAMA 191013
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                43  30  54  30  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  45  29  52  31  55 /  20   0   0   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              46  25  52  25  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  44  32  57  34  58 /  20   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              43  28  55  28  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  44  30  56  29  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               42  34  52  33  55 /  30   5   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 43  24  53  23  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  46  27  54  26  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                46  28  56  28  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  31  51  32  54 /  20   0   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   41  33  49  31  53 /  30   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                44  36  51  35  53 /  30   5   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              44  36  51  37  53 /  40   5   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KAMA 191013
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                43  30  54  30  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  45  29  52  31  55 /  20   0   0   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              46  25  52  25  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  44  32  57  34  58 /  20   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              43  28  55  28  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  44  30  56  29  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               42  34  52  33  55 /  30   5   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 43  24  53  23  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  46  27  54  26  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                46  28  56  28  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  31  51  32  54 /  20   0   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   41  33  49  31  53 /  30   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                44  36  51  35  53 /  30   5   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              44  36  51  37  53 /  40   5   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KAMA 191013
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                43  30  54  30  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  45  29  52  31  55 /  20   0   0   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              46  25  52  25  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  44  32  57  34  58 /  20   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              43  28  55  28  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  44  30  56  29  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               42  34  52  33  55 /  30   5   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 43  24  53  23  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  46  27  54  26  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                46  28  56  28  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  31  51  32  54 /  20   0   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   41  33  49  31  53 /  30   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                44  36  51  35  53 /  30   5   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              44  36  51  37  53 /  40   5   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191013
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
313 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
YESTERDAY`S STORM SYSTEM EXITED THE REGION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
IN IT`S WAKE IS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH A COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE BORDERLAND FOR TODAY. EXPECT SEASONALLY
COOL HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS. SATURDAY REMAINS COOL WITH A PASSING UPPER WAVE THAT WILL
PASS DRY BUT PROVIDE A FEW MORE CLOUDS. CLEARING AND WARMING FOR
SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AS STORMS STAY WELL NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. SPEAKING OF CHRISTMAS...ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH TO BRING ABOUT A WINDY CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A HINT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING IN CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY
AND MILD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE YESTERDAY`S UPPER-
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ALREADY EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE REGION. ENHANCED IR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS...BUT OVERALL DISIPATING
CLOUD COVER. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS THE PCPN AREAS NOW
OVER W TX AND OUT OF THE CWFA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WE WILL SEE SOME FLAT FAIR WEATHER
CU...BUT GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE DEEP NW FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOL AND ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUS L50S
LOWLANDS...AND 30S MTNS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N AND NE
WITH RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENTS.

SATURDAY THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL MIX SHINSHINE WITH AN INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND...BUT NOT MUCH AS WINDS
STILL SHOW SOME NORTHERLY FETCH. MAX TEMPS UP 3-5 DEGREES AND
RIGHT AT THE SEASONAL NORMALS. SUNDAY THE TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM
AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT ON THE BACK SIDE OF SATURDAY`S
WAVE. CONTINUED DRY AS A STRENGTHENING WEST COAST HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOVES THE STORM TRACK N AND E
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF CHRISTMAS WEEK WE WILL STAY UNDER THE
DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG WEST COAST HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SLIGHT DIP EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND A
RELATIVELY WEAK COOL FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

CHRISTMAS DAY WE LOOK TO WELCOME THE ARRIVAL OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AS YET ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NW. CHRISTMAS WILL BE DRY AS THE STORM ARRIVES TOO LATE AND
POSSIBLY TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE RESULT...WITH TEMPRATURES RESPONDING BY SPIKING TO CLOSE TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG IN CHRISTMAS
NIGHT. THE ECMWF MODEL INDICATES PCPN MOVING OVER THE GILA
OVERNIGHT BUT THE OTHER MODELS KEEP IT DRY. FOR SO WE KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE MODEL EVOLUTION ON
THIS POST-CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z- 20/12Z...
EXITING STORM THIS AM WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE REGION
TODAY. A BIT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A THIN FAIR
WEATHER CU FIELD. VFR CONDITIONS TDY ALL TERMS. SKC-SCT050 WITH
LT N TO NW WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATEST STORM SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST
FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM DRIER CONDITIONS AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL AND SEASONAL TODAY AND SATURDAY...THEN A WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY AND MORESO FOR MONDAY AND MOST
OF CHRISTMAS WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25
PERCENT GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL. BREEZY TO WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY (THU) AS A DRY SHORT WAVE PASSES. MODELS
HIT THAT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DROP IN WITH THIS SYSTEM
CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW THAT IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY. THUS
GENERALLY DRY AND MILD FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 53  30  56  33  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           53  30  56  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              53  27  55  30  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  26  53  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  18  35  23  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  27  51  30  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             44  27  47  30  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  52  25  54  28  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               51  25  53  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      53  33  54  36  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               53  26  57  28  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            54  29  58  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              50  31  49  34  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  53  28  57  30  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  26  55  29  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  30  54  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           52  21  53  23  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   53  25  54  28  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  28  54  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               52  27  53  31  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 43  24  45  29  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               42  20  43  25  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                42  23  43  26  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 42  23  46  27  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  27  49  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               51  23  53  25  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            43  23  47  27  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  46  25  49  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   50  21  53  25  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              46  18  49  21  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 46  28  48  31  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  53  25  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 53  22  55  26  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          54  23  56  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              50  26  55  29  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191013
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
313 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
YESTERDAY`S STORM SYSTEM EXITED THE REGION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
IN IT`S WAKE IS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH A COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE BORDERLAND FOR TODAY. EXPECT SEASONALLY
COOL HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS. SATURDAY REMAINS COOL WITH A PASSING UPPER WAVE THAT WILL
PASS DRY BUT PROVIDE A FEW MORE CLOUDS. CLEARING AND WARMING FOR
SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AS STORMS STAY WELL NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. SPEAKING OF CHRISTMAS...ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH TO BRING ABOUT A WINDY CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A HINT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING IN CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY
AND MILD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE YESTERDAY`S UPPER-
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ALREADY EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE REGION. ENHANCED IR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS...BUT OVERALL DISIPATING
CLOUD COVER. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS THE PCPN AREAS NOW
OVER W TX AND OUT OF THE CWFA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WE WILL SEE SOME FLAT FAIR WEATHER
CU...BUT GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE DEEP NW FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOL AND ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUS L50S
LOWLANDS...AND 30S MTNS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N AND NE
WITH RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENTS.

SATURDAY THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL MIX SHINSHINE WITH AN INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND...BUT NOT MUCH AS WINDS
STILL SHOW SOME NORTHERLY FETCH. MAX TEMPS UP 3-5 DEGREES AND
RIGHT AT THE SEASONAL NORMALS. SUNDAY THE TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM
AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT ON THE BACK SIDE OF SATURDAY`S
WAVE. CONTINUED DRY AS A STRENGTHENING WEST COAST HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOVES THE STORM TRACK N AND E
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF CHRISTMAS WEEK WE WILL STAY UNDER THE
DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG WEST COAST HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SLIGHT DIP EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND A
RELATIVELY WEAK COOL FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

CHRISTMAS DAY WE LOOK TO WELCOME THE ARRIVAL OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AS YET ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NW. CHRISTMAS WILL BE DRY AS THE STORM ARRIVES TOO LATE AND
POSSIBLY TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE RESULT...WITH TEMPRATURES RESPONDING BY SPIKING TO CLOSE TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG IN CHRISTMAS
NIGHT. THE ECMWF MODEL INDICATES PCPN MOVING OVER THE GILA
OVERNIGHT BUT THE OTHER MODELS KEEP IT DRY. FOR SO WE KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE MODEL EVOLUTION ON
THIS POST-CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z- 20/12Z...
EXITING STORM THIS AM WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE REGION
TODAY. A BIT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A THIN FAIR
WEATHER CU FIELD. VFR CONDITIONS TDY ALL TERMS. SKC-SCT050 WITH
LT N TO NW WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATEST STORM SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST
FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM DRIER CONDITIONS AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL AND SEASONAL TODAY AND SATURDAY...THEN A WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY AND MORESO FOR MONDAY AND MOST
OF CHRISTMAS WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25
PERCENT GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL. BREEZY TO WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY (THU) AS A DRY SHORT WAVE PASSES. MODELS
HIT THAT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DROP IN WITH THIS SYSTEM
CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW THAT IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY. THUS
GENERALLY DRY AND MILD FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 53  30  56  33  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           53  30  56  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              53  27  55  30  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  26  53  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  18  35  23  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  27  51  30  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             44  27  47  30  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  52  25  54  28  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               51  25  53  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      53  33  54  36  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               53  26  57  28  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            54  29  58  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              50  31  49  34  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  53  28  57  30  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  26  55  29  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  30  54  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           52  21  53  23  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   53  25  54  28  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  28  54  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               52  27  53  31  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 43  24  45  29  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               42  20  43  25  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                42  23  43  26  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 42  23  46  27  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  27  49  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               51  23  53  25  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            43  23  47  27  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  46  25  49  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   50  21  53  25  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              46  18  49  21  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 46  28  48  31  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  53  25  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 53  22  55  26  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          54  23  56  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              50  26  55  29  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD






000
FXUS64 KAMA 191013
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                43  30  54  30  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  45  29  52  31  55 /  20   0   0   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              46  25  52  25  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  44  32  57  34  58 /  20   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              43  28  55  28  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  44  30  56  29  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               42  34  52  33  55 /  30   5   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 43  24  53  23  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  46  27  54  26  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                46  28  56  28  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  31  51  32  54 /  20   0   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   41  33  49  31  53 /  30   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                44  36  51  35  53 /  30   5   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              44  36  51  37  53 /  40   5   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 191013
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
412 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.  LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DETECTED BY KAMA 88D AT THIS TIME EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION
TO END ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS MORNING.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO AGAIN TODAY.

LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.  EXPECT
EARLIER CLEARING ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER- TO MID-50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS ON MONDAY BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN...EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.  COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
FLOW TRENDS TO ZONAL.  HAVE INCREASED MAXIMA AND WINDS ON THURSDAY
AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                43  30  54  30  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  45  29  52  31  55 /  20   0   0   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              46  25  52  25  56 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  44  32  57  34  58 /  20   0   0   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              43  28  55  28  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  44  30  56  29  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               42  34  52  33  55 /  30   5   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 43  24  53  23  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  46  27  54  26  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                46  28  56  28  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                42  31  51  32  54 /  20   0   0   5   5
PAMPA TX                   41  33  49  31  53 /  30   0   0   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                44  36  51  35  53 /  30   5   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              44  36  51  37  53 /  40   5   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03




000
FXUS64 KMAF 191011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 190952
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  60  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  60  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  70  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  30  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  60  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  50  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  50  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





000
FXUS64 KEWX 190952
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  60  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  60  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  70  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  30  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  60  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  50  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  50  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





000
FXUS64 KEWX 190952
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  60  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  60  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  70  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  30  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  60  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  50  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  50  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





000
FXUS64 KEWX 190952
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  60  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  60  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  70  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  30  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  60  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  50  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  50  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





000
FXUS64 KEWX 190952
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  60  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  60  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  70  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  30  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  60  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  50  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  50  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





000
FXUS64 KEWX 190952
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  60  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  60  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  70  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  30  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  60  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  50  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  50  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





000
FXUS64 KEWX 190952
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  60  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  60  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  70  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  30  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  60  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  50  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  50  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





000
FXUS64 KEWX 190952
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
352 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AREAS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SYNOPTIC
AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL MAINTAIN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS DUE TO PWS OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY MOST AREAS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS AND ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THE MAINTENANCE OF CLOUD COVER. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...THEN FALL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW CREATING A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST EARLY NEXT FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  46  56  44  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  45  55  42  59 /  70  -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     58  45  58  44  61 /  60  -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  42  54  41  58 /  60  -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           64  46  60  46  62 /  10  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        54  43  54  42  57 /  70  -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             61  41  60  43  61 /  30  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  45  56  43  59 /  60  -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   58  47  57  45  60 /  80  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  45  58  45  60 /  50  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  46  60  46  61 /  50  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...15
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04





000
FXUS64 KHGX 190950
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THRU 3 AM...THE AREA`S
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES STRETCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM THE FRELSBURG AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
HOUSTON TO THE MOSS HILL AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRODUCING ACTIVITY
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WFO LCH FORECAST AREA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND LOWERING VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOL UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
GULF ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  42
&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONT PUSHING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH...WILL HOIST CAUTION FLAGS.
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SLACKENING WEEKEND OFFSHORE GRADIENT TAKES NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS FALLING TO UNDER THREE FEET PER
MONDAY`S PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 190950
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THRU 3 AM...THE AREA`S
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES STRETCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM THE FRELSBURG AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
HOUSTON TO THE MOSS HILL AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRODUCING ACTIVITY
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WFO LCH FORECAST AREA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND LOWERING VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOL UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
GULF ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  42
&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONT PUSHING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH...WILL HOIST CAUTION FLAGS.
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SLACKENING WEEKEND OFFSHORE GRADIENT TAKES NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS FALLING TO UNDER THREE FEET PER
MONDAY`S PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 190950
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THRU 3 AM...THE AREA`S
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES STRETCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM THE FRELSBURG AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
HOUSTON TO THE MOSS HILL AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRODUCING ACTIVITY
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WFO LCH FORECAST AREA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND LOWERING VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOL UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
GULF ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  42
&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONT PUSHING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH...WILL HOIST CAUTION FLAGS.
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SLACKENING WEEKEND OFFSHORE GRADIENT TAKES NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS FALLING TO UNDER THREE FEET PER
MONDAY`S PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31



000
FXUS64 KHGX 190950
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THRU 3 AM...THE AREA`S
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.50 INCHES STRETCH
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 FROM THE FRELSBURG AREA TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
HOUSTON TO THE MOSS HILL AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL PRODUCING ACTIVITY
IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WFO LCH FORECAST AREA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EDGE OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST AS TODAY PROGRESSES WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING
AND LOWERING VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOL UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF COULD BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY UNDER STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. A MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE
GULF ON CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  42
&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT...BEHIND AN EVENING COLD FRONT PUSHING ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS EXITING TROUGH...WILL HOIST CAUTION FLAGS.
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AS A SLACKENING WEEKEND OFFSHORE GRADIENT TAKES NORTHEAST BREEZES TO
VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS FALLING TO UNDER THREE FEET PER
MONDAY`S PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL OCCUR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A VERY COLD BACKING AIR MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN MID WEEK WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      55  46  56  44  58 /  80  10   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  48  57  45  58 /  80  20  10   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  51  56  51  58 /  80  20  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KBRO 190939
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
339 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS PROVIDING SOME
LIFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE KBRO CWA
TO WORK WITH... WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 KFT AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIPS BY OVER HEAD...AND ALREADY SEEING
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
IN THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON HIGH PRESS AND NORTH
WINDS. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LIE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEFT TO
THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
OVERRUNNING...AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER...OR IVO THE RIO GRANDE.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EVEN AS THE
MID LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHWEST CAPPING FLOW AT H7...OR 10 KFT...WILL
SEE TO THAT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 50 AT KBRO AND KSPI.
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...OR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL THUS NOT REALLY ALLOW FOR A CLEARING OUT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL S/W
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURE THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH CHANCES WANING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND S/W TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DRY AIR WORKS IN ON WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HEART OF THE NATION
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM SO HAVE EDGED WINDS
UP WHILE NUDGING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY. HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS MOISTURE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR ATLEAST PRECIPITATION THERE. SURFACE RIDGING WORKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NEXT S/W
TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. WAA AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS JUMPING
UP TO THE MIDDLE 70S... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES... AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN TO FRESH OR STRONG NORTH LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN WITH A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WHEN NORTH WINDS ON THE GULF WILL APPROACH 20 KTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO JUST SHY OF SEVEN FEET. THUS...A FEW HOURS OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS SETTLING
DOWN THE REST OF SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE SEAS AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  56  64  57 /  30  10  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          76  55  65  55 /  30  10  20  30
HARLINGEN            76  54  63  54 /  30  10  10  30
MCALLEN              74  54  63  54 /  30  10  10  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  52  64  52 /  20  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  59  65  59 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...CAMPBELL





000
FXUS64 KBRO 190939
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
339 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IS PROVIDING SOME
LIFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH HAS A
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE KBRO CWA
TO WORK WITH... WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 10 KFT AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S. THUS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIPS BY OVER HEAD...AND ALREADY SEEING
RADAR RETURNS INCREASING IN COVERAGE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER
IN THE DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON HIGH PRESS AND NORTH
WINDS. THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LIE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LEFT TO
THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
NORTH SFC WINDS UNDER WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
OVERRUNNING...AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THICKER ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER...OR IVO THE RIO GRANDE.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...EVEN AS THE
MID LEVELS DRY OUT. SOUTHWEST CAPPING FLOW AT H7...OR 10 KFT...WILL
SEE TO THAT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS TO THE MID 50 AT KBRO AND KSPI.
CLOUDINESS AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...OR FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL THUS NOT REALLY ALLOW FOR A CLEARING OUT
DURING THE SHORT TERM. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL S/W
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURE THEN MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH CHANCES WANING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND S/W TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. HAVE CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281 WITH HIGHER
POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DRY AIR WORKS IN ON WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HEART OF THE NATION
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM SO HAVE EDGED WINDS
UP WHILE NUDGING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY. HAVE
ALSO INTRODUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS MOISTURE APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR ATLEAST PRECIPITATION THERE. SURFACE RIDGING WORKS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE NEXT S/W
TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY WITH LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. WAA AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS JUMPING
UP TO THE MIDDLE 70S... PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES... AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
WILL TURN TO FRESH OR STRONG NORTH LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN WITH A PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...WHEN NORTH WINDS ON THE GULF WILL APPROACH 20 KTS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO JUST SHY OF SEVEN FEET. THUS...A FEW HOURS OF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT
AND THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS SETTLING
DOWN THE REST OF SATURDAY.

/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
THE SEAS AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND SEA HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  56  64  57 /  30  10  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          76  55  65  55 /  30  10  20  30
HARLINGEN            76  54  63  54 /  30  10  10  30
MCALLEN              74  54  63  54 /  30  10  10  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  52  64  52 /  20  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  59  65  59 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KFWD 190928
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1129 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
THE PREVAILING CONDITION WILL BE IFR. RADAR SHOWS EXTENSIVE RAIN
SHIELD BETWEEN AUSTIN...COLLEGE STATION...AND HOUSTON AT 05Z.
THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS
WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND HAVE RAIN FORECAST TO BEGIN AT
KACT BY 08Z...AND APPROACHING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN
10 AND 11Z. RAIN WILL LAST A BIT LONGER IN WACO THAN IT WILL IN
THE METROPLEX.

FOX


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  50   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  50   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 190928
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1129 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
THE PREVAILING CONDITION WILL BE IFR. RADAR SHOWS EXTENSIVE RAIN
SHIELD BETWEEN AUSTIN...COLLEGE STATION...AND HOUSTON AT 05Z.
THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS
WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND HAVE RAIN FORECAST TO BEGIN AT
KACT BY 08Z...AND APPROACHING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN
10 AND 11Z. RAIN WILL LAST A BIT LONGER IN WACO THAN IT WILL IN
THE METROPLEX.

FOX


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  50   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  50   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 190928
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1129 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
THE PREVAILING CONDITION WILL BE IFR. RADAR SHOWS EXTENSIVE RAIN
SHIELD BETWEEN AUSTIN...COLLEGE STATION...AND HOUSTON AT 05Z.
THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS
WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND HAVE RAIN FORECAST TO BEGIN AT
KACT BY 08Z...AND APPROACHING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN
10 AND 11Z. RAIN WILL LAST A BIT LONGER IN WACO THAN IT WILL IN
THE METROPLEX.

FOX


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  50   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  50   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KFWD 190928
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1129 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
THE PREVAILING CONDITION WILL BE IFR. RADAR SHOWS EXTENSIVE RAIN
SHIELD BETWEEN AUSTIN...COLLEGE STATION...AND HOUSTON AT 05Z.
THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS
WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND HAVE RAIN FORECAST TO BEGIN AT
KACT BY 08Z...AND APPROACHING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN
10 AND 11Z. RAIN WILL LAST A BIT LONGER IN WACO THAN IT WILL IN
THE METROPLEX.

FOX


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  50   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  50   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KSJT 190538
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1138 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Forecast flight conditions are poor for the next 12-15 hours.
Ceilings between 400-1200 ft across most of the CWA have resulted
IFR conditions as of 05z. Visibilities are currently greater than 6
miles, but are forecast to diminish to 2-5 miles later tonight and
early Friday. Scattered light rain showers have developed south of
I-10 near the KSOA and KBBD terminals and will move to the north
and east overnight. The bet chance of rain will be at the KSOA,
KJCT, and KBBD sites, with only VCSH mentioned at KABI and KSJT.

As the shortwave trough axis moves east of the area (mid morning),
rain chances will shift east with ceilings gradually improving
throughout the day. IFR conditions are expected to persist through
late morning, with possible VFR conditions by late afternoon.
Expect light northeast to north winds throughout the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will deteriorate through the next 24 hours at all
terminals. We expect ceilings to drop to 700 feet with visibilities
as low as 2 miles at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD, where rain is expected
with a few thunderstorms possible. The thunderstorms weren`t
included in the TAFs due to timing/location uncertainties. For KSJT
and KABI, ceilings will drop to 700 feet. However, these areas will
have a more showery nature to any rainfall, helping keep
visibilities at/above 4 miles.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front was moving south across the Big Country counties
this afternoon and will continue south across the rest of the area
through early evening. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/upper level
disturbance was moving across the Desert Southwest and will track
east across the area late tonight and early Friday. Isentropic
ascent north of the front will increase this evening, with synoptic
scale lift increasing overnight as the aforementioned shortwave
approaches. This will lead to thickening and lowering cloud cover
this evening, with a chance for rainfall across the area overnight
into Friday.

The best chance for measurable precipitation will be across
southeast counties, where rainfall amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch
will be possible. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts should be light,
generally between 1/10 and 1/4 inch. Mid level lapse rates still
look steep enough for some isolated thunder across southern sections
after midnight and this was retained in the forecast. Lows tonight
will be in the 40s, with light northeast winds.

The upper level trough axis will move across the area Friday
afternoon, with precipitation ending from west to east. It will
be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler, with highs ranging from
the upper 40s north, to the lower and middle 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Christmas Day)

Looks like a dry forecast and mainly above normal temperatures this
weekend through Christmas Day. Upper level west-northwest flow will
dominate with a only dry cool front moving through the area Monday
night. Highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s, with possibly a few
lower 70s Monday. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  42  49  35  55  38 /  30  30   5   5   5
San Angelo  45  54  35  59  38 /  40  30   5   5   5
Junction  48  56  37  60  39 /  70  50   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

Aviation: Johnson






000
FXUS64 KSJT 190538
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1138 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Forecast flight conditions are poor for the next 12-15 hours.
Ceilings between 400-1200 ft across most of the CWA have resulted
IFR conditions as of 05z. Visibilities are currently greater than 6
miles, but are forecast to diminish to 2-5 miles later tonight and
early Friday. Scattered light rain showers have developed south of
I-10 near the KSOA and KBBD terminals and will move to the north
and east overnight. The bet chance of rain will be at the KSOA,
KJCT, and KBBD sites, with only VCSH mentioned at KABI and KSJT.

As the shortwave trough axis moves east of the area (mid morning),
rain chances will shift east with ceilings gradually improving
throughout the day. IFR conditions are expected to persist through
late morning, with possible VFR conditions by late afternoon.
Expect light northeast to north winds throughout the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will deteriorate through the next 24 hours at all
terminals. We expect ceilings to drop to 700 feet with visibilities
as low as 2 miles at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD, where rain is expected
with a few thunderstorms possible. The thunderstorms weren`t
included in the TAFs due to timing/location uncertainties. For KSJT
and KABI, ceilings will drop to 700 feet. However, these areas will
have a more showery nature to any rainfall, helping keep
visibilities at/above 4 miles.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front was moving south across the Big Country counties
this afternoon and will continue south across the rest of the area
through early evening. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/upper level
disturbance was moving across the Desert Southwest and will track
east across the area late tonight and early Friday. Isentropic
ascent north of the front will increase this evening, with synoptic
scale lift increasing overnight as the aforementioned shortwave
approaches. This will lead to thickening and lowering cloud cover
this evening, with a chance for rainfall across the area overnight
into Friday.

The best chance for measurable precipitation will be across
southeast counties, where rainfall amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch
will be possible. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts should be light,
generally between 1/10 and 1/4 inch. Mid level lapse rates still
look steep enough for some isolated thunder across southern sections
after midnight and this was retained in the forecast. Lows tonight
will be in the 40s, with light northeast winds.

The upper level trough axis will move across the area Friday
afternoon, with precipitation ending from west to east. It will
be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler, with highs ranging from
the upper 40s north, to the lower and middle 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Christmas Day)

Looks like a dry forecast and mainly above normal temperatures this
weekend through Christmas Day. Upper level west-northwest flow will
dominate with a only dry cool front moving through the area Monday
night. Highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s, with possibly a few
lower 70s Monday. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  42  49  35  55  38 /  30  30   5   5   5
San Angelo  45  54  35  59  38 /  40  30   5   5   5
Junction  48  56  37  60  39 /  70  50   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

Aviation: Johnson






000
FXUS64 KSJT 190538
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1138 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Forecast flight conditions are poor for the next 12-15 hours.
Ceilings between 400-1200 ft across most of the CWA have resulted
IFR conditions as of 05z. Visibilities are currently greater than 6
miles, but are forecast to diminish to 2-5 miles later tonight and
early Friday. Scattered light rain showers have developed south of
I-10 near the KSOA and KBBD terminals and will move to the north
and east overnight. The bet chance of rain will be at the KSOA,
KJCT, and KBBD sites, with only VCSH mentioned at KABI and KSJT.

As the shortwave trough axis moves east of the area (mid morning),
rain chances will shift east with ceilings gradually improving
throughout the day. IFR conditions are expected to persist through
late morning, with possible VFR conditions by late afternoon.
Expect light northeast to north winds throughout the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will deteriorate through the next 24 hours at all
terminals. We expect ceilings to drop to 700 feet with visibilities
as low as 2 miles at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD, where rain is expected
with a few thunderstorms possible. The thunderstorms weren`t
included in the TAFs due to timing/location uncertainties. For KSJT
and KABI, ceilings will drop to 700 feet. However, these areas will
have a more showery nature to any rainfall, helping keep
visibilities at/above 4 miles.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front was moving south across the Big Country counties
this afternoon and will continue south across the rest of the area
through early evening. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/upper level
disturbance was moving across the Desert Southwest and will track
east across the area late tonight and early Friday. Isentropic
ascent north of the front will increase this evening, with synoptic
scale lift increasing overnight as the aforementioned shortwave
approaches. This will lead to thickening and lowering cloud cover
this evening, with a chance for rainfall across the area overnight
into Friday.

The best chance for measurable precipitation will be across
southeast counties, where rainfall amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch
will be possible. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts should be light,
generally between 1/10 and 1/4 inch. Mid level lapse rates still
look steep enough for some isolated thunder across southern sections
after midnight and this was retained in the forecast. Lows tonight
will be in the 40s, with light northeast winds.

The upper level trough axis will move across the area Friday
afternoon, with precipitation ending from west to east. It will
be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler, with highs ranging from
the upper 40s north, to the lower and middle 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Christmas Day)

Looks like a dry forecast and mainly above normal temperatures this
weekend through Christmas Day. Upper level west-northwest flow will
dominate with a only dry cool front moving through the area Monday
night. Highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s, with possibly a few
lower 70s Monday. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  42  49  35  55  38 /  30  30   5   5   5
San Angelo  45  54  35  59  38 /  40  30   5   5   5
Junction  48  56  37  60  39 /  70  50   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

Aviation: Johnson






000
FXUS64 KSJT 190538
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1138 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Forecast flight conditions are poor for the next 12-15 hours.
Ceilings between 400-1200 ft across most of the CWA have resulted
IFR conditions as of 05z. Visibilities are currently greater than 6
miles, but are forecast to diminish to 2-5 miles later tonight and
early Friday. Scattered light rain showers have developed south of
I-10 near the KSOA and KBBD terminals and will move to the north
and east overnight. The bet chance of rain will be at the KSOA,
KJCT, and KBBD sites, with only VCSH mentioned at KABI and KSJT.

As the shortwave trough axis moves east of the area (mid morning),
rain chances will shift east with ceilings gradually improving
throughout the day. IFR conditions are expected to persist through
late morning, with possible VFR conditions by late afternoon.
Expect light northeast to north winds throughout the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will deteriorate through the next 24 hours at all
terminals. We expect ceilings to drop to 700 feet with visibilities
as low as 2 miles at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD, where rain is expected
with a few thunderstorms possible. The thunderstorms weren`t
included in the TAFs due to timing/location uncertainties. For KSJT
and KABI, ceilings will drop to 700 feet. However, these areas will
have a more showery nature to any rainfall, helping keep
visibilities at/above 4 miles.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front was moving south across the Big Country counties
this afternoon and will continue south across the rest of the area
through early evening. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/upper level
disturbance was moving across the Desert Southwest and will track
east across the area late tonight and early Friday. Isentropic
ascent north of the front will increase this evening, with synoptic
scale lift increasing overnight as the aforementioned shortwave
approaches. This will lead to thickening and lowering cloud cover
this evening, with a chance for rainfall across the area overnight
into Friday.

The best chance for measurable precipitation will be across
southeast counties, where rainfall amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch
will be possible. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts should be light,
generally between 1/10 and 1/4 inch. Mid level lapse rates still
look steep enough for some isolated thunder across southern sections
after midnight and this was retained in the forecast. Lows tonight
will be in the 40s, with light northeast winds.

The upper level trough axis will move across the area Friday
afternoon, with precipitation ending from west to east. It will
be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler, with highs ranging from
the upper 40s north, to the lower and middle 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Christmas Day)

Looks like a dry forecast and mainly above normal temperatures this
weekend through Christmas Day. Upper level west-northwest flow will
dominate with a only dry cool front moving through the area Monday
night. Highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s, with possibly a few
lower 70s Monday. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  42  49  35  55  38 /  30  30   5   5   5
San Angelo  45  54  35  59  38 /  40  30   5   5   5
Junction  48  56  37  60  39 /  70  50   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

Aviation: Johnson






000
FXUS64 KHGX 190533
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1133 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO LOWER TO IFR THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
SITES REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT THESE LOW CIGS TO PERSIST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ONGOING
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY PREVIOUSLY RELEGATED TO THE STATIONARY FRONT
/ANALYZED ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND TOWARDS MATAGORDA BAY AND
STRETCHING EASTWARD INTO THE GULF AS OF 11 PM/ HAS NOW EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS LIFT
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE BIG BEND REGION
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP/PERSIST IN A
NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER... FURTHER COMPLICATING CONDITIONS
AT TERMINALS WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO IMPACT VISIBILITY AT THE
TERMINALS...WITH GPS MET ESTIMATED PWATS AROUND 1.2-1.4 INCHES
/ALMOST 175 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY
FRIDAY...CLEARING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE ONLY MODESTLY BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEPING A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AT THE
TERMINALS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS
INVERSION PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500-2000 FT.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  55  46  55  44 /  90  80  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  60  48  56  45 /  90  80  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  65  51  55  51 /  80  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KEWX 190530 AAC
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1130 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BOUNCE AROUND WITH THE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
AND MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. I-35 TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY
LIFR/IFR. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIFR/IFR CIGS OVER THE EAST WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR WITH THE SHRA/TSRA PASSING THROUGH. MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AT KDRT CURRENTLY THEN FALL TO IFR FROM 12Z THROUGH
16Z. DID MAINTAIN THE TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT KDRT ALTHOUGH MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SHOWERS. N/NE WINDS 8-12 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG TOUGH INTO SATURDAY WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE... /NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING/
EVENING CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE
HIGH POP FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES WITH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MODEL RUN CONSENSUS SHOWING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE HGX CWFA. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS APPEAR TO BE WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF PROJECTIONS...SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS
THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS EAST TO VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WEST WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TO LIFR/IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 01Z-03Z AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH
AND MOVE NORTH. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 16Z AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES. N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH 20/00Z.
AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS
FROM LIFR TO IFR TO MVFR. AFTER 20Z-23Z TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST WITH A SURFACE LOW IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
VARIED CONSIDERABLY AND AREAS STUCK BENEATH THE CLOUDS WERE IN
THE MID 50S WHILE LOCATIONS WITH SOME SUNSHINE HAVE JUMPED INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE...THE LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT ALONG WITH A STOUT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. WE COULD SEE A
STRONG STORM OR TWO MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 TONIGHT...WITH HAIL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. FARTHER EAST...THE HAIL CONCERN WILL
DECREASE AND TRANSITION INTO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERN. THE
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WE/LL CONTINUE
TO RETAIN HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
WE DID OPT TO SHIFT THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
EAST OF I-35. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE LOWEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE ROUGHLY 0.10"
CAN BE EXPECTED. AMOUNTS INCREASE TO NEAR 1" ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR... WITH 1 TO 2" EAST OF I-35. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED 3" TOTAL EAST OF A KARNES CITY TO LA GRANGE LINE. A
QUICK DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN STORE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WARM AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WE HAVE INCREASED
MONDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE COLD
FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL HELP
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  52  56  46  56  41 /  90  70  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  57  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            48  54  40  55  41 /  80  60  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  64  44  60  47 /  40  20  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        49  53  41  55  42 /  90  70  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  62  42  59  44 /  80  50  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   54  57  47  58  44 / 100 100  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  59  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  60  45  60  45 /  90  70  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32





000
FXUS64 KFWD 190529
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1129 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
THE PREVAILING CONDITION WILL BE IFR. RADAR SHOWS EXTENSIVE RAIN
SHIELD BETWEEN AUSTIN...COLLEGE STATION...AND HOUSTON AT 05Z.
THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS
WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND HAVE RAIN FORECAST TO BEGIN AT
KACT BY 08Z...AND APPROACHING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN
10 AND 11Z. RAIN WILL LAST A BIT LONGER IN WACO THAN IT WILL IN
THE METROPLEX.

FOX

&&

.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE MONITORING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A SURFACE FRONT REMAINED
DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR CWA FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL BEND.

HAVE DONE A MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING FIRST SIGNS OF INCREASING WAA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND TO THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR. TIME INTERPOLATION BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS GATESVILLE...TO MARLIN...TO COLLEGE
STATES LINE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED EVENING RAIN CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHILE CONFINING LIKELY CHANCES
TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AS FAR NORTH AS A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY LOOK ON TRACK AND DID NOT
CHANGE THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITHIN BAND OF HIGH 850MB
MOISTURE AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING OVER AN INCH.
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. I ALSO LEFT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE STRONGER
WAA AND MUCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WILL EXIST.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY





&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 190529
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1129 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
THE PREVAILING CONDITION WILL BE IFR. RADAR SHOWS EXTENSIVE RAIN
SHIELD BETWEEN AUSTIN...COLLEGE STATION...AND HOUSTON AT 05Z.
THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS
WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND HAVE RAIN FORECAST TO BEGIN AT
KACT BY 08Z...AND APPROACHING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN
10 AND 11Z. RAIN WILL LAST A BIT LONGER IN WACO THAN IT WILL IN
THE METROPLEX.

FOX

&&

.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE MONITORING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A SURFACE FRONT REMAINED
DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR CWA FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL BEND.

HAVE DONE A MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING FIRST SIGNS OF INCREASING WAA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND TO THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR. TIME INTERPOLATION BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS GATESVILLE...TO MARLIN...TO COLLEGE
STATES LINE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED EVENING RAIN CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHILE CONFINING LIKELY CHANCES
TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AS FAR NORTH AS A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY LOOK ON TRACK AND DID NOT
CHANGE THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITHIN BAND OF HIGH 850MB
MOISTURE AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING OVER AN INCH.
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. I ALSO LEFT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE STRONGER
WAA AND MUCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WILL EXIST.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY





&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 190529
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1129 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
THE PREVAILING CONDITION WILL BE IFR. RADAR SHOWS EXTENSIVE RAIN
SHIELD BETWEEN AUSTIN...COLLEGE STATION...AND HOUSTON AT 05Z.
THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS
WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND HAVE RAIN FORECAST TO BEGIN AT
KACT BY 08Z...AND APPROACHING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN
10 AND 11Z. RAIN WILL LAST A BIT LONGER IN WACO THAN IT WILL IN
THE METROPLEX.

FOX

&&

.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE MONITORING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A SURFACE FRONT REMAINED
DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR CWA FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL BEND.

HAVE DONE A MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING FIRST SIGNS OF INCREASING WAA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND TO THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR. TIME INTERPOLATION BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS GATESVILLE...TO MARLIN...TO COLLEGE
STATES LINE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED EVENING RAIN CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHILE CONFINING LIKELY CHANCES
TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AS FAR NORTH AS A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY LOOK ON TRACK AND DID NOT
CHANGE THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITHIN BAND OF HIGH 850MB
MOISTURE AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING OVER AN INCH.
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. I ALSO LEFT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE STRONGER
WAA AND MUCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WILL EXIST.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY





&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 190529
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1129 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
THE PREVAILING CONDITION WILL BE IFR. RADAR SHOWS EXTENSIVE RAIN
SHIELD BETWEEN AUSTIN...COLLEGE STATION...AND HOUSTON AT 05Z.
THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS
WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND HAVE RAIN FORECAST TO BEGIN AT
KACT BY 08Z...AND APPROACHING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BETWEEN
10 AND 11Z. RAIN WILL LAST A BIT LONGER IN WACO THAN IT WILL IN
THE METROPLEX.

FOX

&&

.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE MONITORING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A SURFACE FRONT REMAINED
DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR CWA FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL BEND.

HAVE DONE A MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING FIRST SIGNS OF INCREASING WAA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND TO THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR. TIME INTERPOLATION BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS GATESVILLE...TO MARLIN...TO COLLEGE
STATES LINE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED EVENING RAIN CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHILE CONFINING LIKELY CHANCES
TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AS FAR NORTH AS A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY LOOK ON TRACK AND DID NOT
CHANGE THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITHIN BAND OF HIGH 850MB
MOISTURE AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING OVER AN INCH.
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. I ALSO LEFT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE STRONGER
WAA AND MUCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WILL EXIST.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY





&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/05





000
FXUS64 KCRP 190526 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1126 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THRU THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
PLENTIFUL LLVL MSTR AND A FRONT DRAPED ACRS THE AREA.  CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY VERY LOW AND SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCRS.  LRD HAS
HAD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO HV THE WORST CONDITIONS...VIS DOWN TO A
MILE AT TIMES WITH A PERSISTENT LIFR CIG. OTHER SITES WILL BE IFR
AT TIMES THRU FRI MORNING. COULD BE SOME THUNDER AS BEST LIFT
SWINGS THRU IN THE MORNING AND WILL CARRY VCTS AT AL SITES BUT
LRD. ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z BUT VFR MAY NOT
RETURN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  74  51  62  50  /  40  60  10  10  10
VICTORIA          59  67  48  61  45  /  80  90  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  72  49  64  50  /  50  20  10  10  10
ALICE             66  72  49  63  49  /  50  50  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          67  71  49  60  51  /  30  80  10  10  10
COTULLA           59  67  46  63  47  /  60  30  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        67  75  49  63  50  /  40  40  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       67  72  53  61  53  /  30  60  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TJ/70...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KLUB 190520
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS PERSISTED AT KCDS...AND IFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE
DEVELOPED AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT KCDS
DECKS DETERIORATING TO IFR CRITERIA AS WELL OVERNIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW MID-LATE
MORNING WHERE IT WILL SCATTER OUT THEREAFTER AT KPVW AND
KLBB...BUT RAISE BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCDS. VISIBILITY HAS
INTERMITTENTLY FALLEN AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW...THUS VFR CONDITIONS
ENSUED. VISIBILITY BECOMING RESTRICTED TO AROUND 6 MILES OR SO
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW LOW IT WILL
GO GIVEN THE FOLLOWING WEATHER INTEREST. ATTENTION TURNS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO WHICH HAS
PROMOTED -SHRA WEST OF KLBB AND KPVW TONIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW
THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD SHIFT EAST AND AFFECT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW
OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY KCDS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER /THUS
VISIBILITY MAY BECOME REDUCED FOR ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD/. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A TEMPO FOR -SHRA AT KLBB AND KPVW AT
THIS TIME...AND WILL PREFER TO SEE HOW RADAR TRENDS GO BEFORE
ADDING A PRECIP MENTION TO KCDS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
STRATUS POISED TO MOVE BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING AS SFC WINDS VEER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN RESPONSE
TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THAT TROUGH
WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS SERN ARIZONA AND SWRN NEW MEXICO. MODELS
REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT...ESPECIALLY WRF-NAM AND HI-RES
MODELS...IN SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ZONES ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THEN TRACKING EWD DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTN. IN GENERAL EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE FROM THE SRN ZONES SWD
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER PRECIP THERE. MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES...ALTHOUGH THAT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMPS. WILL NUDGE POPS UP SOME INTO THE
30-40 PCT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT.
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MILDER
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO RAW MODEL OUTPUT THAN MOS.

LONG TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM. WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY BRING MORE FOG TO THE AREA IN
ADDITION TO A SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST PUSHING
WARMER AND DRYER AIR IN TO THE FA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROF.
THE LEE TROF WILL BUILD AND GATHER COLD AIR BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE TROF WILL
TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST SENDING THE COLD AIR
SURGING SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT STEPS UP ON DECK. UNFORTUNATELY THE GRINCH LOOKS TO BE HOLDING
THIS ONE ON THE TOP OF MOUNT CRUMPIT UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER...BY CHRISTMAS DAY. THAT WILL HAVE US
SINGING MELE KALIKIMAKA INSTEAD OF WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF THAT WILL
BRING THIS FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK FROM A CLOSED 534 DM LOW TO AN OPEN
WAVE. DESPITE THAT TREND...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE COLD
AS THE TROF WILL FUNNEL COLD AIR DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  50  23  54  25 /  30  10  10   0   0
TULIA         35  46  28  54  31 /  30  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  48  30  55  32 /  30  30  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     35  52  29  56  32 /  40  30  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  50  31  56  34 /  30  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   36  54  30  56  34 /  40  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  52  31  55  34 /  40  30  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     40  46  33  54  37 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          36  48  32  55  37 /  30  40  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     40  49  35  58  40 /  20  30  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 190520
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS PERSISTED AT KCDS...AND IFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE
DEVELOPED AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT KCDS
DECKS DETERIORATING TO IFR CRITERIA AS WELL OVERNIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW MID-LATE
MORNING WHERE IT WILL SCATTER OUT THEREAFTER AT KPVW AND
KLBB...BUT RAISE BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCDS. VISIBILITY HAS
INTERMITTENTLY FALLEN AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW...THUS VFR CONDITIONS
ENSUED. VISIBILITY BECOMING RESTRICTED TO AROUND 6 MILES OR SO
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW LOW IT WILL
GO GIVEN THE FOLLOWING WEATHER INTEREST. ATTENTION TURNS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO WHICH HAS
PROMOTED -SHRA WEST OF KLBB AND KPVW TONIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW
THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD SHIFT EAST AND AFFECT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW
OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY KCDS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER /THUS
VISIBILITY MAY BECOME REDUCED FOR ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD/. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A TEMPO FOR -SHRA AT KLBB AND KPVW AT
THIS TIME...AND WILL PREFER TO SEE HOW RADAR TRENDS GO BEFORE
ADDING A PRECIP MENTION TO KCDS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
STRATUS POISED TO MOVE BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING AS SFC WINDS VEER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN RESPONSE
TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THAT TROUGH
WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS SERN ARIZONA AND SWRN NEW MEXICO. MODELS
REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT...ESPECIALLY WRF-NAM AND HI-RES
MODELS...IN SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ZONES ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THEN TRACKING EWD DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTN. IN GENERAL EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE FROM THE SRN ZONES SWD
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER PRECIP THERE. MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES...ALTHOUGH THAT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMPS. WILL NUDGE POPS UP SOME INTO THE
30-40 PCT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT.
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MILDER
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO RAW MODEL OUTPUT THAN MOS.

LONG TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM. WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY BRING MORE FOG TO THE AREA IN
ADDITION TO A SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST PUSHING
WARMER AND DRYER AIR IN TO THE FA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROF.
THE LEE TROF WILL BUILD AND GATHER COLD AIR BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE TROF WILL
TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST SENDING THE COLD AIR
SURGING SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT STEPS UP ON DECK. UNFORTUNATELY THE GRINCH LOOKS TO BE HOLDING
THIS ONE ON THE TOP OF MOUNT CRUMPIT UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER...BY CHRISTMAS DAY. THAT WILL HAVE US
SINGING MELE KALIKIMAKA INSTEAD OF WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF THAT WILL
BRING THIS FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK FROM A CLOSED 534 DM LOW TO AN OPEN
WAVE. DESPITE THAT TREND...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE COLD
AS THE TROF WILL FUNNEL COLD AIR DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  50  23  54  25 /  30  10  10   0   0
TULIA         35  46  28  54  31 /  30  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  48  30  55  32 /  30  30  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     35  52  29  56  32 /  40  30  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  50  31  56  34 /  30  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   36  54  30  56  34 /  40  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  52  31  55  34 /  40  30  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     40  46  33  54  37 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          36  48  32  55  37 /  30  40  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     40  49  35  58  40 /  20  30  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KAMA 190504
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1104 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER....FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF IFR FOG IN TAF SITES THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS WANING THAT VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP THAT LOW. IFR TO MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY SCATTERING OUT MID-LATE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD IN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...AND SHOULD
MAINLY BE CONFINED EAST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE IN THE
SHORT TERM WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG
ONCE AGAIN. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO TRY AND BE MORE
DETERMINISTIC WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THAT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE GIVEN MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. INITIAL CONCERNS ARE FOG
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND
STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WILL ADVECT WESTWARD AND UPSLOPE. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG
IN THE GRIDS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

WV LOOP AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA MOVING EASTWARD. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THE
PERIOD OF BEST OMEGA/SATURATION IN THE DEDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
AFTER ABOUT 03Z IN THE WEST SPREADING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z IN THE EAST. JUST BELOW THE DGZ IS A LAYER OF DRY
AIR THAT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THUS DELAYING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST/CENTRAL AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR CONVEYING SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. AT LEAST
SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREES FAIRLY WELL. THE DEPTH OF THE ABOVE
FREEZING WET BULB TEMPERATURES IS SUFFICIENT FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO MORE RAIN AS A RESULT. INCREASED QPF SLIGHTLY
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. VERY POWERFUL PACIFIC JET NOSES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MONDAY EAST OF A SIGNIFICANT MEAN RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A VERY STRONG TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN BY AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE OR CHRISTMAS DAY BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
HOW IT EVOLVES EARLY/MID WEEK ONCE PACIFIC JET MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. NEW 12Z EMCWF IS QUICKER WITH DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS BECOMES DEEPER BY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ON ITS WEST SIDE OVER
THE PLAINS. EXACT IMPLICATIONS FOR US ARE UNCLEAR. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNSLOPING WARMING/WIND EVENT ON MONDAY.
GFS/MEX DEPICT THIS NOW. ECMWF IS MORE EXPANSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS GIVEN ITS MORE CONSOLIDATED/SPRAWLING
SOLUTION WITH LESS DISTINCT SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT WHICH
RAISES SOME CONCERN OF NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IF THIS SOLUTION
VERIFIES. OTHERWISE DID NOT DEVIATE FROM MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS. ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT...AND
DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE WILL
BE LOW CLOUDS AND EPISODES OF FOG. FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING AT THE TAF
SITES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALY AND TEMPORARILY LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL.
EXPECT THE RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND MAY BRING SOME
SPRINKLES...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...FLURRIES...OR VERY LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...SO HAVE
OPTED TO OMIT FROM THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/09





000
FXUS64 KAMA 190504
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1104 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER....FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF IFR FOG IN TAF SITES THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS WANING THAT VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP THAT LOW. IFR TO MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY SCATTERING OUT MID-LATE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD IN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...AND SHOULD
MAINLY BE CONFINED EAST OF THE TAF SITES TODAY.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE IN THE
SHORT TERM WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG
ONCE AGAIN. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO TRY AND BE MORE
DETERMINISTIC WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THAT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE GIVEN MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. INITIAL CONCERNS ARE FOG
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND
STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WILL ADVECT WESTWARD AND UPSLOPE. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG
IN THE GRIDS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

WV LOOP AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA MOVING EASTWARD. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THE
PERIOD OF BEST OMEGA/SATURATION IN THE DEDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
AFTER ABOUT 03Z IN THE WEST SPREADING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z IN THE EAST. JUST BELOW THE DGZ IS A LAYER OF DRY
AIR THAT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THUS DELAYING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST/CENTRAL AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR CONVEYING SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. AT LEAST
SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREES FAIRLY WELL. THE DEPTH OF THE ABOVE
FREEZING WET BULB TEMPERATURES IS SUFFICIENT FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO MORE RAIN AS A RESULT. INCREASED QPF SLIGHTLY
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. VERY POWERFUL PACIFIC JET NOSES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MONDAY EAST OF A SIGNIFICANT MEAN RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A VERY STRONG TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN BY AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE OR CHRISTMAS DAY BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
HOW IT EVOLVES EARLY/MID WEEK ONCE PACIFIC JET MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. NEW 12Z EMCWF IS QUICKER WITH DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS BECOMES DEEPER BY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ON ITS WEST SIDE OVER
THE PLAINS. EXACT IMPLICATIONS FOR US ARE UNCLEAR. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNSLOPING WARMING/WIND EVENT ON MONDAY.
GFS/MEX DEPICT THIS NOW. ECMWF IS MORE EXPANSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS GIVEN ITS MORE CONSOLIDATED/SPRAWLING
SOLUTION WITH LESS DISTINCT SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT WHICH
RAISES SOME CONCERN OF NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IF THIS SOLUTION
VERIFIES. OTHERWISE DID NOT DEVIATE FROM MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS. ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT...AND
DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE WILL
BE LOW CLOUDS AND EPISODES OF FOG. FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING AT THE TAF
SITES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALY AND TEMPORARILY LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL.
EXPECT THE RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND MAY BRING SOME
SPRINKLES...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...FLURRIES...OR VERY LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...SO HAVE
OPTED TO OMIT FROM THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/09






000
FXUS64 KBRO 190501 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1101 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM MFE NORTHWARD TO BKS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT A MIX OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH VFR EAST. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THAT LIFR/IFR WILL PREVAIL AT MFE WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
AT HRL AND BRO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION MORE THAN
VCSH AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HRL NORTHWARD
NEAR TO BKS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH VFR
EAST. LOW CEILINGS/VIS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION MORE THAN VCSH AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATION AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOW THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF ZAPATA INTO HEBBRONVILLE
AND NORTH OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING NORTH AND SOUTH ALL MORNING
AND HAS DEVELOP A SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE TO MFE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOW FOR
A BAND OF LIGHT BRIEF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 281 TODAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER NEVADA HEADS EAST...AND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH TX
FRIDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFT NORTHWARD
RETURNING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE PULLING ABUNDANT
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A DECENT
DIFFLUENCE AREA ALOFT WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE. CAN NOT RULED OUT AN ISOLATED CASE OF
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HAIL AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. AS THE CLOUD DECK REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 850 TEMPS ON THE INCREASE...EXPECT THE
TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE COOLER OVER
ZAPATA AND HEBBRONVILLE.

AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND MOVES EASTWARD DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND NOON TIME FRIDAY WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
BUT THE LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND MID 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A 500MB TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN HAVE BEEN FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY MOVES
EASTWARD TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD
THURSDAY PROVIDING A FAIRLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST CLOSER INTO THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENTLY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AS WE GET CLOSER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LOW SEAS. BY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN INLAND BUT BY EARLY SUNRISE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE IN THE
GULF WATERS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. INTO
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SO DOES THE CONVECTION BUT A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS INCREASING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCEC POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY BECOMING SCA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT TILL MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRI NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AS A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY MONDAY BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTH MON NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TUES MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63







000
FXUS64 KMAF 190454
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1054 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front currently entering the northern Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico Plains and is forecast to push southwest
toward the Pecos River by 12z Friday. A period of MVFR ceilings
and or visibility is expected at KMAF, KINK, KHOB near and behind
this front toward 12z Friday. KMAF is expected to clear last and
could take by early Friday afternoon to improve to VFR. Across
KCNM, KPEQ, and KFST VFR conditions are expected the next 24
hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Cold front across the Texas Panhandle will move southwest tonight
and is forecast to be near the Pecos River by 12z Friday morning.
With passage of front at KMAF, KINK, expect IFR conditions to
develop after 08z tonight and continue Friday morning. At KCNM and
KHOB, expecting TEMPO VFR to MVFR conditions in showers overnight
with prevailing MVFR conditions continuing at KHOB Friday morning.
At KPEQ and KFST, most of tonight will be VFR with TEMPO MVFR to
IFR visibtilites expected to develop by 12z TO 16Z in fog.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 190454
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1054 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front currently entering the northern Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico Plains and is forecast to push southwest
toward the Pecos River by 12z Friday. A period of MVFR ceilings
and or visibility is expected at KMAF, KINK, KHOB near and behind
this front toward 12z Friday. KMAF is expected to clear last and
could take by early Friday afternoon to improve to VFR. Across
KCNM, KPEQ, and KFST VFR conditions are expected the next 24
hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Cold front across the Texas Panhandle will move southwest tonight
and is forecast to be near the Pecos River by 12z Friday morning.
With passage of front at KMAF, KINK, expect IFR conditions to
develop after 08z tonight and continue Friday morning. At KCNM and
KHOB, expecting TEMPO VFR to MVFR conditions in showers overnight
with prevailing MVFR conditions continuing at KHOB Friday morning.
At KPEQ and KFST, most of tonight will be VFR with TEMPO MVFR to
IFR visibtilites expected to develop by 12z TO 16Z in fog.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 190313
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
913 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...FOG WAS EXPANDING ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY
THIS EVENING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1-3 MILES AS MEASURED FROM LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS...LOCAL SPOTTER REPORTS AND WEBCAMS ACROSS LRD AND
SURROUNDING AREAS. MAY GET SOME IMPROVEMENT AS RAIN MOVES IN LATER
TONIGHT. BUT FOR NOW...ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT AREAS OF
FOG. IF VSBYS CONTINUE TO DECLINE WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. ALSO CLOSELY MONITORING VISIBILITIES ALONG THE MID
COAST WHERE SEA FOG WAS A PROBLEM EARLIER TODAY. OTHERWISE AREAS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE STREAMING NWD ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WHERE SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS CONCENTRATED. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN
STRONGEST FORCING MOVE IN AND PERSISTS THROUGH AROUND 15Z FRI.
COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
CONSIDERING THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING MEASURED PWATS OF 1.55" WHICH IS
GREATER THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS (175%) ABOVE NORMAL. COULD BE A
VERY WET AND STORMY MORNING COMMUTE. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MID/UPR LVL
SHEAR. REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT LRD TONIGHT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACRS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THERE QUICKLY FRI MORNING AS MAIN FRONT PUSHES THRU AND DRIER AIR
WORKS IN. ELSW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCT ACRS THE AREA IN MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES AROUND VCT. COULD BE A
LITTLE THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDS
IMPROVE BY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A LONG WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVG ACROSS BAJA CA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS
MEX AND APPROACH WEST TX TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS TX ON FRI.
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES W TX TONIGHT...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AS A 130KT UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER S CLOSER
TO THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH/PRE-FRONTAL BDRY WILL CONTINUE
TO MEANDER ACROSS S TX. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
DYNAMICS...THE SFC TROUGH AND PWATS OF 1.4-1.5 INCHES WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA`S/TSRA`S TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE CWA...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
MODELS PROG MOD TO STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
MODERATELY INCREASING SHEAR...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE UPPER
DYNAMICS...MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS TOWARD FRI MORNING. THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM W TO E AS THE UPPER LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TX THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGD TO REACH THE COASTLINE SOMETIME BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM ON FRI
AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A MOD
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DVLP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO S TX THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MX TEMP FCST FOR FRI IS A BIT TRICKY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE CLOUDS ERODE AND WHETHER THE CAA
WILL REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES BEFORE MX HEATING. KEPT MID 60S
ACROSS THE N TO LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE S FOR FRIDAY HIGHS. FRI
NIGHT LOWS ARE PROGD TO BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHICH
IS APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT`S EXPECTED LOWS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL BE ENDING THIS WEEKEND AS THE LAST SRN STREAM
S/WV AFFECTS THE CWA.  THE SRN JET WL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD AFTER
THIS WEEKEND AS A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW MOSTLY PREVAILS.
THIS S/WV WL INDUCE WK CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WRN GULF WHICH WL SPREAD
CLOUDS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WL ACT ON THE INCREASING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A RAIN SHIELD
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO THE WATERS AND COASTAL BEND ON
SUNDAY.  ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS NOW BECOME WETTER FOR SUNDAY AND WL
SUBSEQUENTLY RAISE POPS TO CHC ACROSS THE WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS
AS A RESULT.  RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE CWA AND USHERS IN DRIER AIR AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.  WENT ABOVE THE SUPERBLEND FOR MONDAY GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  THE MOISTURE DEPTH
STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SO WL MAINTAIN
A DRY FCST EVEN ON TUESDAY.  A WK SFC RDG AXIS WL MOVE INTO THE CWA
ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND PRODUCE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
A RAPID WARMUP (SIMILAR TO MONDAY) IS EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS DUE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  74  51  62  50  /  40  60  10  10  10
VICTORIA          59  67  48  61  45  /  80  90  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  72  49  64  50  /  50  20  10  10  10
ALICE             66  72  49  63  49  /  50  50  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          67  71  49  60  51  /  30  80  10  10  10
COTULLA           59  67  46  63  47  /  60  30  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        67  75  49  63  50  /  40  40  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       67  72  53  61  53  /  30  60  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KHGX 190309
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
909 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF GALVESTON WITH MORE ELEVATED PRECIP BEGINNING
TO LIFT UP OVER THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS
PRECIP SHOULD (IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
ARE) RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR EL
PASO MOVES NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER JET
STRETCHING FROM BAJA TO SAT TO SHV TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
SETX SHOULD ENTER INTO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED BUT ATTM IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE INTENSE
RAIN RATES BUT A GOOD SOAKING NONETHELESS. IN ADDITION AS THE
PRECIP GETS UNDERWAY EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE MOISTENS UP.

45
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST CONTINUES FOR AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTERING AROUND
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILINGS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM
FOG...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED TSRA AT
SITES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 4 PM REVEALED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NEAR VICTORIA TO FREEPORT TO SOUTH OF GALVESTON. RADAR IMAGERY AS
OF 545 PM SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRAPED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FAR WEST TEXAS...AND AS THIS TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING OF RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ANY
MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY.. CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR THE TERMINALS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND TSRA CHANCES LOOKING TO REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT AWAY
FROM THE COAST...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
ALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
TERMINALS.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO W & CNTL PARTS OF TEXAS
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING OF SHRA & ISO TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST
AND OFF TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS
SE TX OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS FRI. WARM SECTOR SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OF JUST OFF THE COAST AND OVERALL DYNAMICS TO POINT TO
A LOW THREAT OF WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE...BUT PRIMARY
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTN ON FRI AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THRU IN ITS WAKE. SOME
QUESTION REGARDING IF/WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS WEEKEND. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER STEEP LLVL
INVERSION. IF WE DON`T SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BOTH HIGH & LOW
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z NAM12
WAS BULLISH ON A COASTAL TROF AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF NEXT TROF THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY.
NOTICED THE 18Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF THAT THINKING AND IS MORE
ALIGNED W/ THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF.

WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MID SECTION TROF DEEPENS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU
THE AREA ON TUE. AGAIN...WITH LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN WE`D
ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DRY FROPA. COOLER AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT - CONTINUING INTO XMAS EVE.

PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO WED/THUR AND
EXPECT A RAPID RETURN AND STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW DURING ON
XMAS DAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS. POSSIBLY SHORTS WX? IT`S A MUCH
BETTER BET THAN A WHITE XMAS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. 47

MARINE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND AS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES UP
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE GULF WERE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
OFF THE MID AND SOUTH TEXAS COASTS. IF THIS AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY
FAR ENOUGH NORTH...AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TODAY. THE MODELS DO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK OFF
THE COAST...AND CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER
THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE TO ABOVE CAUTION CRITERIA
UNTIL TUESDAY.  40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  55  46  55  44 /  90  80  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  60  48  56  45 /  90  80  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  65  51  55  51 /  80  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45



000
FXUS64 KHGX 190309
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
909 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF GALVESTON WITH MORE ELEVATED PRECIP BEGINNING
TO LIFT UP OVER THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS
PRECIP SHOULD (IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
ARE) RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR EL
PASO MOVES NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER JET
STRETCHING FROM BAJA TO SAT TO SHV TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
SETX SHOULD ENTER INTO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED BUT ATTM IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE INTENSE
RAIN RATES BUT A GOOD SOAKING NONETHELESS. IN ADDITION AS THE
PRECIP GETS UNDERWAY EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE MOISTENS UP.

45
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST CONTINUES FOR AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTERING AROUND
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILINGS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM
FOG...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED TSRA AT
SITES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 4 PM REVEALED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NEAR VICTORIA TO FREEPORT TO SOUTH OF GALVESTON. RADAR IMAGERY AS
OF 545 PM SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRAPED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FAR WEST TEXAS...AND AS THIS TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING OF RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ANY
MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY.. CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR THE TERMINALS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND TSRA CHANCES LOOKING TO REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT AWAY
FROM THE COAST...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
ALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
TERMINALS.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO W & CNTL PARTS OF TEXAS
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING OF SHRA & ISO TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST
AND OFF TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS
SE TX OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS FRI. WARM SECTOR SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OF JUST OFF THE COAST AND OVERALL DYNAMICS TO POINT TO
A LOW THREAT OF WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE...BUT PRIMARY
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTN ON FRI AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THRU IN ITS WAKE. SOME
QUESTION REGARDING IF/WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS WEEKEND. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER STEEP LLVL
INVERSION. IF WE DON`T SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BOTH HIGH & LOW
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z NAM12
WAS BULLISH ON A COASTAL TROF AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF NEXT TROF THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY.
NOTICED THE 18Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF THAT THINKING AND IS MORE
ALIGNED W/ THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF.

WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MID SECTION TROF DEEPENS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU
THE AREA ON TUE. AGAIN...WITH LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN WE`D
ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DRY FROPA. COOLER AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT - CONTINUING INTO XMAS EVE.

PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO WED/THUR AND
EXPECT A RAPID RETURN AND STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW DURING ON
XMAS DAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS. POSSIBLY SHORTS WX? IT`S A MUCH
BETTER BET THAN A WHITE XMAS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. 47

MARINE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND AS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES UP
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE GULF WERE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
OFF THE MID AND SOUTH TEXAS COASTS. IF THIS AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY
FAR ENOUGH NORTH...AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TODAY. THE MODELS DO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK OFF
THE COAST...AND CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER
THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE TO ABOVE CAUTION CRITERIA
UNTIL TUESDAY.  40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  55  46  55  44 /  90  80  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  60  48  56  45 /  90  80  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  65  51  55  51 /  80  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45



000
FXUS64 KHGX 190309
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
909 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF GALVESTON WITH MORE ELEVATED PRECIP BEGINNING
TO LIFT UP OVER THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS
PRECIP SHOULD (IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
ARE) RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR EL
PASO MOVES NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER JET
STRETCHING FROM BAJA TO SAT TO SHV TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
SETX SHOULD ENTER INTO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED BUT ATTM IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE INTENSE
RAIN RATES BUT A GOOD SOAKING NONETHELESS. IN ADDITION AS THE
PRECIP GETS UNDERWAY EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE MOISTENS UP.

45
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST CONTINUES FOR AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTERING AROUND
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILINGS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM
FOG...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED TSRA AT
SITES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 4 PM REVEALED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NEAR VICTORIA TO FREEPORT TO SOUTH OF GALVESTON. RADAR IMAGERY AS
OF 545 PM SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRAPED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FAR WEST TEXAS...AND AS THIS TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING OF RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ANY
MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY.. CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR THE TERMINALS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND TSRA CHANCES LOOKING TO REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT AWAY
FROM THE COAST...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
ALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
TERMINALS.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO W & CNTL PARTS OF TEXAS
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING OF SHRA & ISO TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST
AND OFF TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS
SE TX OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS FRI. WARM SECTOR SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OF JUST OFF THE COAST AND OVERALL DYNAMICS TO POINT TO
A LOW THREAT OF WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE...BUT PRIMARY
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTN ON FRI AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THRU IN ITS WAKE. SOME
QUESTION REGARDING IF/WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS WEEKEND. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER STEEP LLVL
INVERSION. IF WE DON`T SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BOTH HIGH & LOW
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z NAM12
WAS BULLISH ON A COASTAL TROF AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF NEXT TROF THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY.
NOTICED THE 18Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF THAT THINKING AND IS MORE
ALIGNED W/ THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF.

WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MID SECTION TROF DEEPENS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU
THE AREA ON TUE. AGAIN...WITH LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN WE`D
ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DRY FROPA. COOLER AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT - CONTINUING INTO XMAS EVE.

PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO WED/THUR AND
EXPECT A RAPID RETURN AND STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW DURING ON
XMAS DAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS. POSSIBLY SHORTS WX? IT`S A MUCH
BETTER BET THAN A WHITE XMAS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. 47

MARINE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND AS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES UP
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE GULF WERE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
OFF THE MID AND SOUTH TEXAS COASTS. IF THIS AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY
FAR ENOUGH NORTH...AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TODAY. THE MODELS DO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK OFF
THE COAST...AND CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER
THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE TO ABOVE CAUTION CRITERIA
UNTIL TUESDAY.  40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  55  46  55  44 /  90  80  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  60  48  56  45 /  90  80  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  65  51  55  51 /  80  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45



000
FXUS64 KHGX 190309
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
909 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF GALVESTON WITH MORE ELEVATED PRECIP BEGINNING
TO LIFT UP OVER THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS
PRECIP SHOULD (IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
ARE) RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR EL
PASO MOVES NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER JET
STRETCHING FROM BAJA TO SAT TO SHV TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
SETX SHOULD ENTER INTO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED BUT ATTM IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE INTENSE
RAIN RATES BUT A GOOD SOAKING NONETHELESS. IN ADDITION AS THE
PRECIP GETS UNDERWAY EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE MOISTENS UP.

45
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST CONTINUES FOR AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTERING AROUND
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILINGS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM
FOG...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED TSRA AT
SITES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 4 PM REVEALED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NEAR VICTORIA TO FREEPORT TO SOUTH OF GALVESTON. RADAR IMAGERY AS
OF 545 PM SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRAPED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FAR WEST TEXAS...AND AS THIS TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING OF RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ANY
MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY.. CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR THE TERMINALS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND TSRA CHANCES LOOKING TO REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT AWAY
FROM THE COAST...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
ALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
TERMINALS.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO W & CNTL PARTS OF TEXAS
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING OF SHRA & ISO TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST
AND OFF TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS
SE TX OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS FRI. WARM SECTOR SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OF JUST OFF THE COAST AND OVERALL DYNAMICS TO POINT TO
A LOW THREAT OF WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE...BUT PRIMARY
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTN ON FRI AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THRU IN ITS WAKE. SOME
QUESTION REGARDING IF/WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS WEEKEND. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER STEEP LLVL
INVERSION. IF WE DON`T SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BOTH HIGH & LOW
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z NAM12
WAS BULLISH ON A COASTAL TROF AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF NEXT TROF THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY.
NOTICED THE 18Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF THAT THINKING AND IS MORE
ALIGNED W/ THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF.

WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MID SECTION TROF DEEPENS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU
THE AREA ON TUE. AGAIN...WITH LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN WE`D
ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DRY FROPA. COOLER AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT - CONTINUING INTO XMAS EVE.

PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO WED/THUR AND
EXPECT A RAPID RETURN AND STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW DURING ON
XMAS DAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS. POSSIBLY SHORTS WX? IT`S A MUCH
BETTER BET THAN A WHITE XMAS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. 47

MARINE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND AS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES UP
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE GULF WERE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
OFF THE MID AND SOUTH TEXAS COASTS. IF THIS AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY
FAR ENOUGH NORTH...AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TODAY. THE MODELS DO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK OFF
THE COAST...AND CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER
THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE TO ABOVE CAUTION CRITERIA
UNTIL TUESDAY.  40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  55  46  55  44 /  90  80  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  60  48  56  45 /  90  80  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  65  51  55  51 /  80  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45



000
FXUS64 KEWX 190256
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
856 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE... /NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING/
EVENING CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE
HIGH POP FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES WITH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MODEL RUN CONSENSUS SHOWING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE HGX CWFA. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS APPEAR TO BE WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF PROJECTIONS...SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS EAST TO VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WEST WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TO LIFR/IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 01Z-03Z AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH
AND MOVE NORTH. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 16Z AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES. N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH 20/00Z.
AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS
FROM LIFR TO IFR TO MVFR. AFTER 20Z-23Z TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST WITH A SURFACE LOW IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
VARIED CONSIDERABLY AND AREAS STUCK BENEATH THE CLOUDS WERE IN
THE MID 50S WHILE LOCATIONS WITH SOME SUNSHINE HAVE JUMPED INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE...THE LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT ALONG WITH A STOUT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. WE COULD SEE A
STRONG STORM OR TWO MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 TONIGHT...WITH HAIL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. FARTHER EAST...THE HAIL CONCERN WILL
DECREASE AND TRANSITION INTO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERN. THE
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WE/LL CONTINUE
TO RETAIN HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
WE DID OPT TO SHIFT THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
EAST OF I-35. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE LOWEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE ROUGHLY 0.10"
CAN BE EXPECTED. AMOUNTS INCREASE TO NEAR 1" ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR... WITH 1 TO 2" EAST OF I-35. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED 3" TOTAL EAST OF A KARNES CITY TO LA GRANGE LINE. A
QUICK DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN STORE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WARM AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WE HAVE INCREASED
MONDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE COLD
FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL HELP
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  52  56  46  56  41 /  90  70  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  57  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            48  54  40  55  41 /  80  60  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  64  44  60  47 /  40  20  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        49  53  41  55  42 /  90  70  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  62  42  59  44 /  80  50  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   54  57  47  58  44 / 100 100  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  59  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  60  45  60  45 /  90  70  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32





000
FXUS64 KEWX 190256
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
856 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE... /NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING/
EVENING CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE
HIGH POP FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES WITH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MODEL RUN CONSENSUS SHOWING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE HGX CWFA. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS APPEAR TO BE WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF PROJECTIONS...SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS EAST TO VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WEST WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TO LIFR/IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 01Z-03Z AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH
AND MOVE NORTH. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 16Z AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES. N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH 20/00Z.
AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS
FROM LIFR TO IFR TO MVFR. AFTER 20Z-23Z TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST WITH A SURFACE LOW IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
VARIED CONSIDERABLY AND AREAS STUCK BENEATH THE CLOUDS WERE IN
THE MID 50S WHILE LOCATIONS WITH SOME SUNSHINE HAVE JUMPED INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE...THE LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT ALONG WITH A STOUT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. WE COULD SEE A
STRONG STORM OR TWO MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 TONIGHT...WITH HAIL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. FARTHER EAST...THE HAIL CONCERN WILL
DECREASE AND TRANSITION INTO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERN. THE
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WE/LL CONTINUE
TO RETAIN HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
WE DID OPT TO SHIFT THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
EAST OF I-35. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE LOWEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE ROUGHLY 0.10"
CAN BE EXPECTED. AMOUNTS INCREASE TO NEAR 1" ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR... WITH 1 TO 2" EAST OF I-35. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED 3" TOTAL EAST OF A KARNES CITY TO LA GRANGE LINE. A
QUICK DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN STORE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WARM AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WE HAVE INCREASED
MONDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE COLD
FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL HELP
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  52  56  46  56  41 /  90  70  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  57  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            48  54  40  55  41 /  80  60  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  64  44  60  47 /  40  20  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        49  53  41  55  42 /  90  70  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  62  42  59  44 /  80  50  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   54  57  47  58  44 / 100 100  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  59  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  60  45  60  45 /  90  70  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32





000
FXUS64 KEWX 190256
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
856 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE... /NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING/
EVENING CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE
HIGH POP FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES WITH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MODEL RUN CONSENSUS SHOWING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE HGX CWFA. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS APPEAR TO BE WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF PROJECTIONS...SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS EAST TO VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WEST WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TO LIFR/IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 01Z-03Z AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH
AND MOVE NORTH. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 16Z AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES. N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH 20/00Z.
AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS
FROM LIFR TO IFR TO MVFR. AFTER 20Z-23Z TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST WITH A SURFACE LOW IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
VARIED CONSIDERABLY AND AREAS STUCK BENEATH THE CLOUDS WERE IN
THE MID 50S WHILE LOCATIONS WITH SOME SUNSHINE HAVE JUMPED INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE...THE LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT ALONG WITH A STOUT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. WE COULD SEE A
STRONG STORM OR TWO MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 TONIGHT...WITH HAIL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. FARTHER EAST...THE HAIL CONCERN WILL
DECREASE AND TRANSITION INTO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERN. THE
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WE/LL CONTINUE
TO RETAIN HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
WE DID OPT TO SHIFT THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
EAST OF I-35. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE LOWEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE ROUGHLY 0.10"
CAN BE EXPECTED. AMOUNTS INCREASE TO NEAR 1" ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR... WITH 1 TO 2" EAST OF I-35. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED 3" TOTAL EAST OF A KARNES CITY TO LA GRANGE LINE. A
QUICK DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN STORE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WARM AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WE HAVE INCREASED
MONDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE COLD
FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL HELP
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  52  56  46  56  41 /  90  70  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  57  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            48  54  40  55  41 /  80  60  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  64  44  60  47 /  40  20  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        49  53  41  55  42 /  90  70  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  62  42  59  44 /  80  50  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   54  57  47  58  44 / 100 100  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  59  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  60  45  60  45 /  90  70  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32





000
FXUS64 KEWX 190256
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
856 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE... /NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING/
EVENING CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE
HIGH POP FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES WITH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MODEL RUN CONSENSUS SHOWING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE HGX CWFA. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS APPEAR TO BE WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF PROJECTIONS...SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS
THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS EAST TO VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WEST WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TO LIFR/IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 01Z-03Z AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH
AND MOVE NORTH. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 16Z AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES. N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH 20/00Z.
AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS
FROM LIFR TO IFR TO MVFR. AFTER 20Z-23Z TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST WITH A SURFACE LOW IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
VARIED CONSIDERABLY AND AREAS STUCK BENEATH THE CLOUDS WERE IN
THE MID 50S WHILE LOCATIONS WITH SOME SUNSHINE HAVE JUMPED INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE...THE LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT ALONG WITH A STOUT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. WE COULD SEE A
STRONG STORM OR TWO MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 TONIGHT...WITH HAIL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. FARTHER EAST...THE HAIL CONCERN WILL
DECREASE AND TRANSITION INTO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERN. THE
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WE/LL CONTINUE
TO RETAIN HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
WE DID OPT TO SHIFT THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
EAST OF I-35. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE LOWEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE ROUGHLY 0.10"
CAN BE EXPECTED. AMOUNTS INCREASE TO NEAR 1" ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR... WITH 1 TO 2" EAST OF I-35. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED 3" TOTAL EAST OF A KARNES CITY TO LA GRANGE LINE. A
QUICK DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN STORE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WARM AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WE HAVE INCREASED
MONDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE COLD
FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL HELP
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  52  56  46  56  41 /  90  70  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  57  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            48  54  40  55  41 /  80  60  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  64  44  60  47 /  40  20  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        49  53  41  55  42 /  90  70  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  62  42  59  44 /  80  50  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   54  57  47  58  44 / 100 100  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  59  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  60  45  60  45 /  90  70  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32





000
FXUS64 KFWD 190150 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
750 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE MONITORING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A SURFACE FRONT REMAINED
DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR CWA FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL BEND.

HAVE DONE A MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING FIRST SIGNS OF INCREASING WAA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND TO THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR. TIME INTERPOLATION BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS GATESVILLE...TO MARLIN...TO COLLEGE
STATES LINE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED EVENING RAIN CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHILE CONFINING LIKELY CHANCES
TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AS FAR NORTH AS A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY LOOK ON TRACK AND DID NOT
CHANGE THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITHIN BAND OF HIGH 850MB
MOISTURE AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING OVER AN INCH.
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. I ALSO LEFT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE STRONGER
WAA AND MUCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WILL EXIST.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 190150 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
750 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE MONITORING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A SURFACE FRONT REMAINED
DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR CWA FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL BEND.

HAVE DONE A MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING FIRST SIGNS OF INCREASING WAA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND TO THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR. TIME INTERPOLATION BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS GATESVILLE...TO MARLIN...TO COLLEGE
STATES LINE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED EVENING RAIN CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHILE CONFINING LIKELY CHANCES
TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AS FAR NORTH AS A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY LOOK ON TRACK AND DID NOT
CHANGE THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITHIN BAND OF HIGH 850MB
MOISTURE AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING OVER AN INCH.
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. I ALSO LEFT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE STRONGER
WAA AND MUCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WILL EXIST.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 190150 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
750 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE MONITORING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A SURFACE FRONT REMAINED
DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR CWA FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL BEND.

HAVE DONE A MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING FIRST SIGNS OF INCREASING WAA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND TO THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR. TIME INTERPOLATION BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS GATESVILLE...TO MARLIN...TO COLLEGE
STATES LINE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED EVENING RAIN CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHILE CONFINING LIKELY CHANCES
TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AS FAR NORTH AS A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY LOOK ON TRACK AND DID NOT
CHANGE THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITHIN BAND OF HIGH 850MB
MOISTURE AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING OVER AN INCH.
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. I ALSO LEFT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE STRONGER
WAA AND MUCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WILL EXIST.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/05





000
FXUS64 KFWD 190150 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
750 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE MONITORING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WAS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A SURFACE FRONT REMAINED
DRAPED SOUTH OF OUR CWA FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE TEXAS
COASTAL BEND.

HAVE DONE A MINOR UPDATE TO TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING FIRST SIGNS OF INCREASING WAA AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND TO THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR. TIME INTERPOLATION BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS GATESVILLE...TO MARLIN...TO COLLEGE
STATES LINE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE REMOVED EVENING RAIN CHANCES ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHILE CONFINING LIKELY CHANCES
TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AS FAR NORTH AS A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE.

OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY LOOK ON TRACK AND DID NOT
CHANGE THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITHIN BAND OF HIGH 850MB
MOISTURE AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING OVER AN INCH.
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. I ALSO LEFT MENTION
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE STRONGER
WAA AND MUCAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WILL EXIST.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             43  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           45  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/05






000
FXUS64 KHGX 190025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
625 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST CONTINUES FOR AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTERING AROUND
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILINGS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM
FOG...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED TSRA AT
SITES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 4 PM REVEALED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NEAR VICTORIA TO FREEPORT TO SOUTH OF GALVESTON. RADAR IMAGERY AS
OF 545 PM SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRAPED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FAR WEST TEXAS...AND AS THIS TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING OF RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ANY
MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY.. CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR THE TERMINALS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND TSRA CHANCES LOOKING TO REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT AWAY
FROM THE COAST...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
ALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
TERMINALS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO W & CNTL PARTS OF TEXAS
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING OF SHRA & ISO TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST
AND OFF TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS
SE TX OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS FRI. WARM SECTOR SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OF JUST OFF THE COAST AND OVERALL DYNAMICS TO POINT TO
A LOW THREAT OF WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE...BUT PRIMARY
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTN ON FRI AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THRU IN ITS WAKE. SOME
QUESTION REGARDING IF/WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS WEEKEND. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER STEEP LLVL
INVERSION. IF WE DON`T SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BOTH HIGH & LOW
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z NAM12
WAS BULLISH ON A COASTAL TROF AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF NEXT TROF THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY.
NOTICED THE 18Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF THAT THINKING AND IS MORE
ALIGNED W/ THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF.

WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MID SECTION TROF DEEPENS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU
THE AREA ON TUE. AGAIN...WITH LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN WE`D
ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DRY FROPA. COOLER AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT - CONTINUING INTO XMAS EVE.

PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO WED/THUR AND
EXPECT A RAPID RETURN AND STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW DURING ON
XMAS DAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS. POSSIBLY SHORTS WX? IT`S A MUCH
BETTER BET THAN A WHITE XMAS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. 47

MARINE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND AS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES UP
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE GULF WERE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
OFF THE MID AND SOUTH TEXAS COASTS. IF THIS AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY
FAR ENOUGH NORTH...AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TODAY. THE MODELS DO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK OFF
THE COAST...AND CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER
THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE TO ABOVE CAUTION CRITERIA
UNTIL TUESDAY.  40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  55  46  55  44 /  90  80  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  60  48  56  45 /  90  80  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  65  51  55  51 /  80  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KHGX 190025
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
625 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST CONTINUES FOR AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTERING AROUND
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILINGS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM
FOG...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED TSRA AT
SITES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 4 PM REVEALED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NEAR VICTORIA TO FREEPORT TO SOUTH OF GALVESTON. RADAR IMAGERY AS
OF 545 PM SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRAPED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FAR WEST TEXAS...AND AS THIS TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING OF RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ANY
MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY.. CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR THE TERMINALS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND TSRA CHANCES LOOKING TO REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT AWAY
FROM THE COAST...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
ALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
TERMINALS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO W & CNTL PARTS OF TEXAS
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING OF SHRA & ISO TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST
AND OFF TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS
SE TX OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS FRI. WARM SECTOR SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OF JUST OFF THE COAST AND OVERALL DYNAMICS TO POINT TO
A LOW THREAT OF WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE...BUT PRIMARY
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTN ON FRI AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THRU IN ITS WAKE. SOME
QUESTION REGARDING IF/WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS WEEKEND. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER STEEP LLVL
INVERSION. IF WE DON`T SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BOTH HIGH & LOW
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z NAM12
WAS BULLISH ON A COASTAL TROF AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF NEXT TROF THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY.
NOTICED THE 18Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF THAT THINKING AND IS MORE
ALIGNED W/ THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF.

WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MID SECTION TROF DEEPENS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU
THE AREA ON TUE. AGAIN...WITH LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN WE`D
ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DRY FROPA. COOLER AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT - CONTINUING INTO XMAS EVE.

PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO WED/THUR AND
EXPECT A RAPID RETURN AND STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW DURING ON
XMAS DAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS. POSSIBLY SHORTS WX? IT`S A MUCH
BETTER BET THAN A WHITE XMAS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. 47

MARINE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND AS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES UP
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE GULF WERE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
OFF THE MID AND SOUTH TEXAS COASTS. IF THIS AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY
FAR ENOUGH NORTH...AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TODAY. THE MODELS DO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK OFF
THE COAST...AND CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER
THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE TO ABOVE CAUTION CRITERIA
UNTIL TUESDAY.  40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  55  46  55  44 /  90  80  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  60  48  56  45 /  90  80  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  65  51  55  51 /  80  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBRO 190006 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
606 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HRL NORTHWARD
NEAR TO BKS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH VFR
EAST. LOW CEILINGS/VIS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION MORE THAN VCSH AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATION AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOW THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF ZAPATA INTO HEBBRONVILLE
AND NORTH OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING NORTH AND SOUTH ALL MORNING
AND HAS DEVELOP A SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE TO MFE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOW FOR
A BAND OF LIGHT BRIEF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 281 TODAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER NEVADA HEADS EAST...AND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH TX
FRIDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFT NORTHWARD
RETURNING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE PULLING ABUNDANT
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A DECENT
DIFFLUENCE AREA ALOFT WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE. CAN NOT RULED OUT AN ISOLATED CASE OF
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HAIL AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. AS THE CLOUD DECK REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 850 TEMPS ON THE INCREASE...EXPECT THE
TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE COOLER OVER
ZAPATA AND HEBBRONVILLE.

AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND MOVES EASTWARD DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND NOON TIME FRIDAY WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
BUT THE LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND MID 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A 500MB TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN HAVE BEEN FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY MOVES
EASTWARD TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD
THURSDAY PROVIDING A FAIRLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST CLOSER INTO THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENTLY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AS WE GET CLOSER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LOW SEAS. BY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN INLAND BUT BY EARLY SUNRISE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE IN THE
GULF WATERS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. INTO
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SO DOES THE CONVECTION BUT A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS INCREASING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCEC POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY BECOMING SCA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT TILL MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRI NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AS A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY MONDAY BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTH MON NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TUES MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63






000
FXUS64 KBRO 190006 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
606 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HRL NORTHWARD
NEAR TO BKS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH VFR
EAST. LOW CEILINGS/VIS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION MORE THAN VCSH AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATION AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOW THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF ZAPATA INTO HEBBRONVILLE
AND NORTH OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING NORTH AND SOUTH ALL MORNING
AND HAS DEVELOP A SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE TO MFE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOW FOR
A BAND OF LIGHT BRIEF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 281 TODAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER NEVADA HEADS EAST...AND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH TX
FRIDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFT NORTHWARD
RETURNING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE PULLING ABUNDANT
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A DECENT
DIFFLUENCE AREA ALOFT WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE. CAN NOT RULED OUT AN ISOLATED CASE OF
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HAIL AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. AS THE CLOUD DECK REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 850 TEMPS ON THE INCREASE...EXPECT THE
TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE COOLER OVER
ZAPATA AND HEBBRONVILLE.

AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND MOVES EASTWARD DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND NOON TIME FRIDAY WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
BUT THE LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND MID 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A 500MB TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN HAVE BEEN FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY MOVES
EASTWARD TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD
THURSDAY PROVIDING A FAIRLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST CLOSER INTO THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENTLY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AS WE GET CLOSER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LOW SEAS. BY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN INLAND BUT BY EARLY SUNRISE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE IN THE
GULF WATERS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. INTO
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SO DOES THE CONVECTION BUT A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS INCREASING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCEC POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY BECOMING SCA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT TILL MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRI NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AS A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY MONDAY BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTH MON NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TUES MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63





000
FXUS64 KSJT 182351
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
551 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will deteriorate through the next 24 hours at all
terminals. We expect ceilings to drop to 700 feet with visibilities
as low as 2 miles at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD, where rain is expected
with a few thunderstorms possible. The thunderstorms weren`t
included in the TAFs due to timing/location uncertainties. For KSJT
and KABI, ceilings will drop to 700 feet. However, these areas will
have a more showery nature to any rainfall, helping keep
visibilities at/above 4 miles.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front was moving south across the Big Country counties
this afternoon and will continue south across the rest of the area
through early evening. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/upper level
disturbance was moving across the Desert Southwest and will track
east across the area late tonight and early Friday. Isentropic
ascent north of the front will increase this evening, with synoptic
scale lift increasing overnight as the aforementioned shortwave
approaches. This will lead to thickening and lowering cloud cover
this evening, with a chance for rainfall across the area overnight
into Friday.

The best chance for measurable precipitation will be across
southeast counties, where rainfall amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch
will be possible. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts should be light,
generally between 1/10 and 1/4 inch. Mid level lapse rates still
look steep enough for some isolated thunder across southern sections
after midnight and this was retained in the forecast. Lows tonight
will be in the 40s, with light northeast winds.

The upper level trough axis will move across the area Friday
afternoon, with precipitation ending from west to east. It will
be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler, with highs ranging from
the upper 40s north, to the lower and middle 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Christmas Day)

Looks like a dry forecast and mainly above normal temperatures this
weekend through Christmas Day. Upper level west-northwest flow will
dominate with a only dry cool front moving through the area Monday
night. Highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s, with possibly a few
lower 70s Monday. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  42  49  35  55 /   5  30  30   5   5
San Angelo  66  45  54  35  59 /   5  40  30   5   5
Junction  68  48  56  37  60 /  10  70  50   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/21/60







000
FXUS64 KSJT 182351
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
551 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will deteriorate through the next 24 hours at all
terminals. We expect ceilings to drop to 700 feet with visibilities
as low as 2 miles at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD, where rain is expected
with a few thunderstorms possible. The thunderstorms weren`t
included in the TAFs due to timing/location uncertainties. For KSJT
and KABI, ceilings will drop to 700 feet. However, these areas will
have a more showery nature to any rainfall, helping keep
visibilities at/above 4 miles.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front was moving south across the Big Country counties
this afternoon and will continue south across the rest of the area
through early evening. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/upper level
disturbance was moving across the Desert Southwest and will track
east across the area late tonight and early Friday. Isentropic
ascent north of the front will increase this evening, with synoptic
scale lift increasing overnight as the aforementioned shortwave
approaches. This will lead to thickening and lowering cloud cover
this evening, with a chance for rainfall across the area overnight
into Friday.

The best chance for measurable precipitation will be across
southeast counties, where rainfall amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch
will be possible. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts should be light,
generally between 1/10 and 1/4 inch. Mid level lapse rates still
look steep enough for some isolated thunder across southern sections
after midnight and this was retained in the forecast. Lows tonight
will be in the 40s, with light northeast winds.

The upper level trough axis will move across the area Friday
afternoon, with precipitation ending from west to east. It will
be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler, with highs ranging from
the upper 40s north, to the lower and middle 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Christmas Day)

Looks like a dry forecast and mainly above normal temperatures this
weekend through Christmas Day. Upper level west-northwest flow will
dominate with a only dry cool front moving through the area Monday
night. Highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s, with possibly a few
lower 70s Monday. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  42  49  35  55 /   5  30  30   5   5
San Angelo  66  45  54  35  59 /   5  40  30   5   5
Junction  68  48  56  37  60 /  10  70  50   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/21/60








000
FXUS64 KCRP 182346
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
546 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT LRD TONIGHT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACRS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THERE QUICKLY FRI MORNING AS MAIN FRONT PUSHES THRU AND DRIER AIR
WORKS IN. ELSW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCT ACRS THE AREA IN MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES AROUND VCT. COULD BE A
LITTLE THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDS
IMPROVE BY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A LONG WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVG ACROSS BAJA CA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS
MEX AND APPROACH WEST TX TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS TX ON FRI.
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES W TX TONIGHT...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AS A 130KT UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER S CLOSER
TO THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH/PRE-FRONTAL BDRY WILL CONTINUE
TO MEANDER ACROSS S TX. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
DYNAMICS...THE SFC TROUGH AND PWATS OF 1.4-1.5 INCHES WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA`S/TSRA`S TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE CWA...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
MODELS PROG MOD TO STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
MODERATELY INCREASING SHEAR...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE UPPER
DYNAMICS...MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS TOWARD FRI MORNING. THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM W TO E AS THE UPPER LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TX THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGD TO REACH THE COASTLINE SOMETIME BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM ON FRI
AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A MOD
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DVLP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO S TX THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MX TEMP FCST FOR FRI IS A BIT TRICKY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE CLOUDS ERODE AND WHETHER THE CAA
WILL REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES BEFORE MX HEATING. KEPT MID 60S
ACROSS THE N TO LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE S FOR FRIDAY HIGHS. FRI
NIGHT LOWS ARE PROGD TO BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHICH
IS APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT`S EXPECTED LOWS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL BE ENDING THIS WEEKEND AS THE LAST SRN STREAM
S/WV AFFECTS THE CWA.  THE SRN JET WL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD AFTER
THIS WEEKEND AS A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW MOSTLY PREVAILS.
THIS S/WV WL INDUCE WK CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WRN GULF WHICH WL SPREAD
CLOUDS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WL ACT ON THE INCREASING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A RAIN SHIELD
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO THE WATERS AND COASTAL BEND ON
SUNDAY.  ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS NOW BECOME WETTER FOR SUNDAY AND WL
SUBSEQUENTLY RAISE POPS TO CHC ACROSS THE WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS
AS A RESULT.  RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE CWA AND USHERS IN DRIER AIR AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.  WENT ABOVE THE SUPERBLEND FOR MONDAY GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  THE MOISTURE DEPTH
STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SO WL MAINTAIN
A DRY FCST EVEN ON TUESDAY.  A WK SFC RDG AXIS WL MOVE INTO THE CWA
ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND PRODUCE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
A RAPID WARMUP (SIMILAR TO MONDAY) IS EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS DUE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  66  74  51  62  /  50  40  60  10  10
VICTORIA          73  59  67  48  61  /  60  80  90  10  10
LAREDO            66  60  72  49  64  /  30  50  20  10  10
ALICE             77  66  72  49  63  /  50  50  50  10  10
ROCKPORT          74  67  71  49  60  /  50  30  80  10  10
COTULLA           67  59  67  46  63  /  20  60  30  10  10
KINGSVILLE        78  67  75  49  63  /  50  40  40  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       75  67  72  53  61  /  50  30  60  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

XX/99...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KEWX 182325 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS EAST TO VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WEST WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TO LIFR/IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 01Z-03Z AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH
AND MOVE NORTH. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 16Z AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES. N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH 20/00Z.
AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS
FROM LIFR TO IFR TO MVFR. AFTER 20Z-23Z TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST WITH A SURFACE LOW IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
VARIED CONSIDERABLY AND AREAS STUCK BENEATH THE CLOUDS WERE IN
THE MID 50S WHILE LOCATIONS WITH SOME SUNSHINE HAVE JUMPED INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE...THE LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT ALONG WITH A STOUT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. WE COULD SEE A
STRONG STORM OR TWO MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 TONIGHT...WITH HAIL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. FARTHER EAST...THE HAIL CONCERN WILL
DECREASE AND TRANSITION INTO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERN. THE
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WE/LL CONTINUE
TO RETAIN HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
WE DID OPT TO SHIFT THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
EAST OF I-35. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE LOWEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE ROUGHLY 0.10"
CAN BE EXPECTED. AMOUNTS INCREASE TO NEAR 1" ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR... WITH 1 TO 2" EAST OF I-35. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED 3" TOTAL EAST OF A KARNES CITY TO LA GRANGE LINE. A
QUICK DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN STORE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WARM AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WE HAVE INCREASED
MONDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE COLD
FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL HELP
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  52  56  46  56  41 /  90  70  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  57  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            48  54  40  55  41 /  80  60  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  64  44  60  47 /  40  20  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        49  53  41  55  42 /  90  70  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  62  42  59  44 /  80  50  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   54  57  47  58  44 / 100 100  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  59  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  60  45  60  45 /  90  70  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KEWX 182325 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS EAST TO VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WEST WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TO LIFR/IFR/MVFR BETWEEN 01Z-03Z AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH
AND MOVE NORTH. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 16Z AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES. N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH 20/00Z.
AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS
FROM LIFR TO IFR TO MVFR. AFTER 20Z-23Z TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST WITH A SURFACE LOW IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
VARIED CONSIDERABLY AND AREAS STUCK BENEATH THE CLOUDS WERE IN
THE MID 50S WHILE LOCATIONS WITH SOME SUNSHINE HAVE JUMPED INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE...THE LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT ALONG WITH A STOUT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. WE COULD SEE A
STRONG STORM OR TWO MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 TONIGHT...WITH HAIL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. FARTHER EAST...THE HAIL CONCERN WILL
DECREASE AND TRANSITION INTO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERN. THE
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WE/LL CONTINUE
TO RETAIN HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
WE DID OPT TO SHIFT THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
EAST OF I-35. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE LOWEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE ROUGHLY 0.10"
CAN BE EXPECTED. AMOUNTS INCREASE TO NEAR 1" ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR... WITH 1 TO 2" EAST OF I-35. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED 3" TOTAL EAST OF A KARNES CITY TO LA GRANGE LINE. A
QUICK DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN STORE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WARM AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WE HAVE INCREASED
MONDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE COLD
FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL HELP
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  52  56  46  56  41 /  90  70  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  57  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            48  54  40  55  41 /  80  60  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  64  44  60  47 /  40  20  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        49  53  41  55  42 /  90  70  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  62  42  59  44 /  80  50  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   54  57  47  58  44 / 100 100  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  59  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  60  45  60  45 /  90  70  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32





000
FXUS64 KMAF 182322
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
522 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front across the Texas Panhandle will move southwest tonight
and is forecast to be near the Pecos River by 12z Friday morning.
With passage of front at KMAF, KINK, expect IFR conditions to
develop after 08z tonight and continue Friday morning. At KCNM and
KHOB, expecting TEMPO VFR to MVFR conditions in showers overnight
with prevailing MVFR conditions continuing at KHOB Friday morning.
At KPEQ and KFST, most of tonight will be VFR with TEMPO MVFR to
IFR visibtilites expected to develop by 12z TO 16Z in fog.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  52  32  57  /  40  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  51  35  57  /  40  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  54  30  58  /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  64  41  61  /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  57  36  62  /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  50  33  52  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   37  52  29  57  /  40  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  58  23  60  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  54  33  58  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  53  34  57  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    40  59  32  61  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 182322
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
522 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front across the Texas Panhandle will move southwest tonight
and is forecast to be near the Pecos River by 12z Friday morning.
With passage of front at KMAF, KINK, expect IFR conditions to
develop after 08z tonight and continue Friday morning. At KCNM and
KHOB, expecting TEMPO VFR to MVFR conditions in showers overnight
with prevailing MVFR conditions continuing at KHOB Friday morning.
At KPEQ and KFST, most of tonight will be VFR with TEMPO MVFR to
IFR visibtilites expected to develop by 12z TO 16Z in fog.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  52  32  57  /  40  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  51  35  57  /  40  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  54  30  58  /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  64  41  61  /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  57  36  62  /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  50  33  52  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   37  52  29  57  /  40  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  58  23  60  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  54  33  58  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  53  34  57  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    40  59  32  61  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 182321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LINGERING MVFR CLOUD DECKS AFFECTED KCDS EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHILE SCT-BKN VFR DECKS PASS OVERHEAD ACROSS KPVW AND
KLBB. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT CLOUD DECKS EXPANDING BACK TO ACROSS
KPVW AND KLBB TONIGHT...WITH DECKS LOWERING TO IFR CRITERIA AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES. MVFR FOG LOOKS MORE PLAUSIBLE FOR KPVW AND KLBB
FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR -SHRA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR KLBB TO
BECOME AFFECTED BY THE PRECIPITATION...THUS A PROB30 WILL REMAIN
INSERTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. HARD TO SAY WHETHER THE ACTIVITY WILL
NEAR KPVW AND KCDS. WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
STRATUS POISED TO MOVE BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING AS SFC WINDS VEER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN RESPONSE
TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THAT TROUGH
WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS SERN ARIZONA AND SWRN NEW MEXICO. MODELS
REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT...ESPECIALLY WRF-NAM AND HI-RES
MODELS...IN SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ZONES ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THEN TRACKING EWD DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTN. IN GENERAL EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE FROM THE SRN ZONES SWD
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER PRECIP THERE. MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES...ALTHOUGH THAT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMPS. WILL NUDGE POPS UP SOME INTO THE
30-40 PCT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT.
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MILDER
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO RAW MODEL OUTPUT THAN MOS.

LONG TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM. WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY BRING MORE FOG TO THE AREA IN
ADDITION TO A SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST PUSHING
WARMER AND DRYER AIR IN TO THE FA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROF.
THE LEE TROF WILL BUILD AND GATHER COLD AIR BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE TROF WILL
TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST SENDING THE COLD AIR
SURGING SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT STEPS UP ON DECK. UNFORTUNATELY THE GRINCH LOOKS TO BE HOLDING
THIS ONE ON THE TOP OF MOUNT CRUMPIT UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER...BY CHRISTMAS DAY. THAT WILL HAVE US
SINGING MELE KALIKIMAKA INSTEAD OF WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF THAT WILL
BRING THIS FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK FROM A CLOSED 534 DM LOW TO AN OPEN
WAVE. DESPITE THAT TREND...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE COLD
AS THE TROF WILL FUNNEL COLD AIR DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  50  23  54  25 /  30  10  10   0   0
TULIA         35  46  28  54  31 /  30  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  48  30  55  32 /  30  30  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     35  52  29  56  32 /  40  30  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  50  31  56  34 /  30  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   36  54  30  56  34 /  40  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  52  31  55  34 /  40  30  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     40  46  33  54  37 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          36  48  32  55  37 /  30  40  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     40  49  35  58  40 /  20  30  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 182321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LINGERING MVFR CLOUD DECKS AFFECTED KCDS EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHILE SCT-BKN VFR DECKS PASS OVERHEAD ACROSS KPVW AND
KLBB. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT CLOUD DECKS EXPANDING BACK TO ACROSS
KPVW AND KLBB TONIGHT...WITH DECKS LOWERING TO IFR CRITERIA AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES. MVFR FOG LOOKS MORE PLAUSIBLE FOR KPVW AND KLBB
FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR -SHRA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR KLBB TO
BECOME AFFECTED BY THE PRECIPITATION...THUS A PROB30 WILL REMAIN
INSERTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. HARD TO SAY WHETHER THE ACTIVITY WILL
NEAR KPVW AND KCDS. WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
STRATUS POISED TO MOVE BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING AS SFC WINDS VEER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN RESPONSE
TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THAT TROUGH
WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS SERN ARIZONA AND SWRN NEW MEXICO. MODELS
REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT...ESPECIALLY WRF-NAM AND HI-RES
MODELS...IN SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ZONES ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THEN TRACKING EWD DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTN. IN GENERAL EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE FROM THE SRN ZONES SWD
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER PRECIP THERE. MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES...ALTHOUGH THAT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMPS. WILL NUDGE POPS UP SOME INTO THE
30-40 PCT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT.
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MILDER
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO RAW MODEL OUTPUT THAN MOS.

LONG TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM. WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY BRING MORE FOG TO THE AREA IN
ADDITION TO A SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST PUSHING
WARMER AND DRYER AIR IN TO THE FA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROF.
THE LEE TROF WILL BUILD AND GATHER COLD AIR BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE TROF WILL
TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST SENDING THE COLD AIR
SURGING SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT STEPS UP ON DECK. UNFORTUNATELY THE GRINCH LOOKS TO BE HOLDING
THIS ONE ON THE TOP OF MOUNT CRUMPIT UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER...BY CHRISTMAS DAY. THAT WILL HAVE US
SINGING MELE KALIKIMAKA INSTEAD OF WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF THAT WILL
BRING THIS FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK FROM A CLOSED 534 DM LOW TO AN OPEN
WAVE. DESPITE THAT TREND...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE COLD
AS THE TROF WILL FUNNEL COLD AIR DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  50  23  54  25 /  30  10  10   0   0
TULIA         35  46  28  54  31 /  30  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  48  30  55  32 /  30  30  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     35  52  29  56  32 /  40  30  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  50  31  56  34 /  30  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   36  54  30  56  34 /  40  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  52  31  55  34 /  40  30  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     40  46  33  54  37 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          36  48  32  55  37 /  30  40  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     40  49  35  58  40 /  20  30  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182236
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
336 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE SCATTERED LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY WE WILL DRY OUT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE WEEKEND LOOKS NICE WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WE CAN EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A MIX OF MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND COLD LOWLAND RAINS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE GILA REGION
LOOKS LIKE IT IS THE BEST PLACE FOR SOME SNOW SO I WILL CONTINUE
THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THAT LOCATION. THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS WILL BE CLOSE...BUT THE LIMITED TIME THE SNOW WILL FALL
WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH THEY GET. FOR NOW I`M THINKING THEY WILL GET
SOMETHING LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WHICH IS JUST BELOW THE
CRITERIA FOR A SNOW ADVISORY. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SACS GET A LITTLE MORE SNOW...BUT RIGHT NOW I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDE SPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS UP THERE. AS I
MENTIONED THE WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NARROW. BASICALLY
FROM NOW TILL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...A LITTLE LATER FOR THE SACS.

AFTER TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS MUCH WEAKER AND HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
IT WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO GIVE US SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND THAT IS
ABOUT IT. FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL WATCH AS A LARGE RIDGE
BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL PUT US UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALFOT. THIS FLOW IS USUALLY DRY AND ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMING
TREND EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT BY CHRISTMAS DAY WE WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SORRY EVERYONE...NO WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR
US IN THE LOWLANDS THIS YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z- 20/00Z...
THRU 10Z...P6SM SCT030-040 BKN050-070 WITH SCT 5SM -TSRA BKN025 OVER
THE LOWLANDS WITH 1-3SM -SN BKN010-020 IN THE MTS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE W UNDER 12KTS SHIFTING MORE TO THE N TO NW BY 10Z. AFT
10Z...SKC-SCT050 WITH LT N TO NW WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD WEATHER WISE COMING UP FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION OF AREA MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FEW DAYS OF
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS BY MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PERCENT
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 37  54  31  55  33 /  40   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           36  53  31  55  32 /  40   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              35  53  28  54  30 /  40   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              32  52  27  52  29 /  40   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              23  34  19  34  23 /  60   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   32  50  28  50  30 /  40   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             32  44  28  46  30 /  50   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  32  52  26  53  28 /  40   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               32  51  26  52  29 /  30   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      36  53  34  53  36 /  40   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               32  54  27  56  28 /  40   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            37  55  30  57  32 /  40   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              37  50  32  48  34 /  40   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  34  54  29  56  30 /  40   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            36  53  27  54  29 /  40   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          36  53  31  53  34 /  40   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           35  52  22  52  23 /  40   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   34  53  26  53  28 /  40   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                34  53  29  53  32 /  30   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               33  52  28  52  31 /  40   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 29  43  25  44  29 /  50   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               25  42  21  42  25 /  50   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                27  42  24  42  26 /  50   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 26  42  24  45  27 /  50   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               33  47  28  48  31 /  50   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               31  51  24  52  25 /  40   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            26  43  24  46  27 /  50   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  31  46  26  48  29 /  40   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   34  50  22  52  25 /  50   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              33  46  19  48  21 /  30   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 33  46  29  47  31 /  40   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  31  53  26  55  30 /  30   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 32  53  23  54  26 /  30   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          31  54  24  55  26 /  30   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              30  50  27  54  29 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ402.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182236
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
336 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE SCATTERED LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY WE WILL DRY OUT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE WEEKEND LOOKS NICE WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WE CAN EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A MIX OF MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND COLD LOWLAND RAINS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE GILA REGION
LOOKS LIKE IT IS THE BEST PLACE FOR SOME SNOW SO I WILL CONTINUE
THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THAT LOCATION. THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS WILL BE CLOSE...BUT THE LIMITED TIME THE SNOW WILL FALL
WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH THEY GET. FOR NOW I`M THINKING THEY WILL GET
SOMETHING LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WHICH IS JUST BELOW THE
CRITERIA FOR A SNOW ADVISORY. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SACS GET A LITTLE MORE SNOW...BUT RIGHT NOW I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDE SPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS UP THERE. AS I
MENTIONED THE WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NARROW. BASICALLY
FROM NOW TILL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...A LITTLE LATER FOR THE SACS.

AFTER TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS MUCH WEAKER AND HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
IT WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO GIVE US SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND THAT IS
ABOUT IT. FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL WATCH AS A LARGE RIDGE
BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL PUT US UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALFOT. THIS FLOW IS USUALLY DRY AND ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMING
TREND EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT BY CHRISTMAS DAY WE WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SORRY EVERYONE...NO WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR
US IN THE LOWLANDS THIS YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z- 20/00Z...
THRU 10Z...P6SM SCT030-040 BKN050-070 WITH SCT 5SM -TSRA BKN025 OVER
THE LOWLANDS WITH 1-3SM -SN BKN010-020 IN THE MTS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE W UNDER 12KTS SHIFTING MORE TO THE N TO NW BY 10Z. AFT
10Z...SKC-SCT050 WITH LT N TO NW WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD WEATHER WISE COMING UP FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION OF AREA MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FEW DAYS OF
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS BY MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PERCENT
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 37  54  31  55  33 /  40   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           36  53  31  55  32 /  40   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              35  53  28  54  30 /  40   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              32  52  27  52  29 /  40   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              23  34  19  34  23 /  60   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   32  50  28  50  30 /  40   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             32  44  28  46  30 /  50   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  32  52  26  53  28 /  40   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               32  51  26  52  29 /  30   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      36  53  34  53  36 /  40   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               32  54  27  56  28 /  40   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            37  55  30  57  32 /  40   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              37  50  32  48  34 /  40   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  34  54  29  56  30 /  40   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            36  53  27  54  29 /  40   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          36  53  31  53  34 /  40   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           35  52  22  52  23 /  40   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   34  53  26  53  28 /  40   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                34  53  29  53  32 /  30   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               33  52  28  52  31 /  40   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 29  43  25  44  29 /  50   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               25  42  21  42  25 /  50   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                27  42  24  42  26 /  50   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 26  42  24  45  27 /  50   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               33  47  28  48  31 /  50   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               31  51  24  52  25 /  40   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            26  43  24  46  27 /  50   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  31  46  26  48  29 /  40   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   34  50  22  52  25 /  50   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              33  46  19  48  21 /  30   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 33  46  29  47  31 /  40   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  31  53  26  55  30 /  30   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 32  53  23  54  26 /  30   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          31  54  24  55  26 /  30   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              30  50  27  54  29 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ402.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182236
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
336 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE SCATTERED LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY WE WILL DRY OUT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE WEEKEND LOOKS NICE WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WE CAN EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A MIX OF MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND COLD LOWLAND RAINS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE GILA REGION
LOOKS LIKE IT IS THE BEST PLACE FOR SOME SNOW SO I WILL CONTINUE
THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THAT LOCATION. THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS WILL BE CLOSE...BUT THE LIMITED TIME THE SNOW WILL FALL
WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH THEY GET. FOR NOW I`M THINKING THEY WILL GET
SOMETHING LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WHICH IS JUST BELOW THE
CRITERIA FOR A SNOW ADVISORY. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SACS GET A LITTLE MORE SNOW...BUT RIGHT NOW I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDE SPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS UP THERE. AS I
MENTIONED THE WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NARROW. BASICALLY
FROM NOW TILL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...A LITTLE LATER FOR THE SACS.

AFTER TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS MUCH WEAKER AND HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
IT WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO GIVE US SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND THAT IS
ABOUT IT. FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL WATCH AS A LARGE RIDGE
BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL PUT US UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALFOT. THIS FLOW IS USUALLY DRY AND ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMING
TREND EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT BY CHRISTMAS DAY WE WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SORRY EVERYONE...NO WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR
US IN THE LOWLANDS THIS YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z- 20/00Z...
THRU 10Z...P6SM SCT030-040 BKN050-070 WITH SCT 5SM -TSRA BKN025 OVER
THE LOWLANDS WITH 1-3SM -SN BKN010-020 IN THE MTS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE W UNDER 12KTS SHIFTING MORE TO THE N TO NW BY 10Z. AFT
10Z...SKC-SCT050 WITH LT N TO NW WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD WEATHER WISE COMING UP FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION OF AREA MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FEW DAYS OF
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS BY MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PERCENT
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 37  54  31  55  33 /  40   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           36  53  31  55  32 /  40   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              35  53  28  54  30 /  40   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              32  52  27  52  29 /  40   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              23  34  19  34  23 /  60   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   32  50  28  50  30 /  40   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             32  44  28  46  30 /  50   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  32  52  26  53  28 /  40   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               32  51  26  52  29 /  30   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      36  53  34  53  36 /  40   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               32  54  27  56  28 /  40   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            37  55  30  57  32 /  40   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              37  50  32  48  34 /  40   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  34  54  29  56  30 /  40   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            36  53  27  54  29 /  40   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          36  53  31  53  34 /  40   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           35  52  22  52  23 /  40   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   34  53  26  53  28 /  40   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                34  53  29  53  32 /  30   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               33  52  28  52  31 /  40   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 29  43  25  44  29 /  50   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               25  42  21  42  25 /  50   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                27  42  24  42  26 /  50   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 26  42  24  45  27 /  50   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               33  47  28  48  31 /  50   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               31  51  24  52  25 /  40   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            26  43  24  46  27 /  50   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  31  46  26  48  29 /  40   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   34  50  22  52  25 /  50   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              33  46  19  48  21 /  30   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 33  46  29  47  31 /  40   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  31  53  26  55  30 /  30   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 32  53  23  54  26 /  30   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          31  54  24  55  26 /  30   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              30  50  27  54  29 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ402.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182236
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
336 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE SCATTERED LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY WE WILL DRY OUT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE WEEKEND LOOKS NICE WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WE CAN EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A MIX OF MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND COLD LOWLAND RAINS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE GILA REGION
LOOKS LIKE IT IS THE BEST PLACE FOR SOME SNOW SO I WILL CONTINUE
THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THAT LOCATION. THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS WILL BE CLOSE...BUT THE LIMITED TIME THE SNOW WILL FALL
WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH THEY GET. FOR NOW I`M THINKING THEY WILL GET
SOMETHING LIKE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WHICH IS JUST BELOW THE
CRITERIA FOR A SNOW ADVISORY. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SACS GET A LITTLE MORE SNOW...BUT RIGHT NOW I`M NOT
EXPECTING WIDE SPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS UP THERE. AS I
MENTIONED THE WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NARROW. BASICALLY
FROM NOW TILL A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...A LITTLE LATER FOR THE SACS.

AFTER TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS MUCH WEAKER AND HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
IT WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO GIVE US SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND THAT IS
ABOUT IT. FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL WATCH AS A LARGE RIDGE
BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL PUT US UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALFOT. THIS FLOW IS USUALLY DRY AND ALLOWS FOR A SLOW WARMING
TREND EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT BY CHRISTMAS DAY WE WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SORRY EVERYONE...NO WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR
US IN THE LOWLANDS THIS YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z- 20/00Z...
THRU 10Z...P6SM SCT030-040 BKN050-070 WITH SCT 5SM -TSRA BKN025 OVER
THE LOWLANDS WITH 1-3SM -SN BKN010-020 IN THE MTS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE W UNDER 12KTS SHIFTING MORE TO THE N TO NW BY 10Z. AFT
10Z...SKC-SCT050 WITH LT N TO NW WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH QUIETER PERIOD WEATHER WISE COMING UP FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION OF AREA MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FEW DAYS OF
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS BY MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PERCENT
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 37  54  31  55  33 /  40   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           36  53  31  55  32 /  40   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              35  53  28  54  30 /  40   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              32  52  27  52  29 /  40   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              23  34  19  34  23 /  60   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   32  50  28  50  30 /  40   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             32  44  28  46  30 /  50   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  32  52  26  53  28 /  40   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               32  51  26  52  29 /  30   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      36  53  34  53  36 /  40   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               32  54  27  56  28 /  40   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            37  55  30  57  32 /  40   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              37  50  32  48  34 /  40   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  34  54  29  56  30 /  40   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            36  53  27  54  29 /  40   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          36  53  31  53  34 /  40   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           35  52  22  52  23 /  40   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   34  53  26  53  28 /  40   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                34  53  29  53  32 /  30   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               33  52  28  52  31 /  40   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 29  43  25  44  29 /  50   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               25  42  21  42  25 /  50   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                27  42  24  42  26 /  50   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 26  42  24  45  27 /  50   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               33  47  28  48  31 /  50   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               31  51  24  52  25 /  40   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            26  43  24  46  27 /  50   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  31  46  26  48  29 /  40   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   34  50  22  52  25 /  50   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              33  46  19  48  21 /  30   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 33  46  29  47  31 /  40   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  31  53  26  55  30 /  30   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 32  53  23  54  26 /  30   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          31  54  24  55  26 /  30   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              30  50  27  54  29 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ402.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/GRZYWACZ






000
FXUS64 KSJT 182149
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front was moving south across the Big Country counties
this afternoon and will continue south across the rest of the area
through early evening. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/upper level
disturbance was moving across the Desert Southwest and will track
east across the area late tonight and early Friday. Isentropic
ascent north of the front will increase this evening, with synoptic
scale lift increasing overnight as the aforementioned shortwave
approaches. This will lead to thickening and lowering cloud cover
this evening, with a chance for rainfall across the area overnight
into Friday.

The best chance for measurable precipitation will be across
southeast counties, where rainfall amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch
will be possible. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts should be light,
generally between 1/10 and 1/4 inch. Mid level lapse rates still
look steep enough for some isolated thunder across southern sections
after midnight and this was retained in the forecast. Lows tonight
will be in the 40s, with light northeast winds.

The upper level trough axis will move across the area Friday
afternoon, with precipitation ending from west to east. It will
be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler, with highs ranging from
the upper 40s north, to the lower and middle 50s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Christmas Day)

Looks like a dry forecast and mainly above normal temperatures this
weekend through Christmas Day. Upper level west-northwest flow will
dominate with a only dry cool front moving through the area Monday
night. Highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s, with possibly a few
lower 70s Monday. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  42  49  35  55  38 /  30  30   5   5   5
San Angelo  45  54  35  59  38 /  40  30   5   5   5
Junction  48  56  37  60  39 /  70  50   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/21








000
FXUS64 KSJT 182149
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front was moving south across the Big Country counties
this afternoon and will continue south across the rest of the area
through early evening. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/upper level
disturbance was moving across the Desert Southwest and will track
east across the area late tonight and early Friday. Isentropic
ascent north of the front will increase this evening, with synoptic
scale lift increasing overnight as the aforementioned shortwave
approaches. This will lead to thickening and lowering cloud cover
this evening, with a chance for rainfall across the area overnight
into Friday.

The best chance for measurable precipitation will be across
southeast counties, where rainfall amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch
will be possible. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts should be light,
generally between 1/10 and 1/4 inch. Mid level lapse rates still
look steep enough for some isolated thunder across southern sections
after midnight and this was retained in the forecast. Lows tonight
will be in the 40s, with light northeast winds.

The upper level trough axis will move across the area Friday
afternoon, with precipitation ending from west to east. It will
be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler, with highs ranging from
the upper 40s north, to the lower and middle 50s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Christmas Day)

Looks like a dry forecast and mainly above normal temperatures this
weekend through Christmas Day. Upper level west-northwest flow will
dominate with a only dry cool front moving through the area Monday
night. Highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s, with possibly a few
lower 70s Monday. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  42  49  35  55  38 /  30  30   5   5   5
San Angelo  45  54  35  59  38 /  40  30   5   5   5
Junction  48  56  37  60  39 /  70  50   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/21








000
FXUS64 KSJT 182149
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front was moving south across the Big Country counties
this afternoon and will continue south across the rest of the area
through early evening. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/upper level
disturbance was moving across the Desert Southwest and will track
east across the area late tonight and early Friday. Isentropic
ascent north of the front will increase this evening, with synoptic
scale lift increasing overnight as the aforementioned shortwave
approaches. This will lead to thickening and lowering cloud cover
this evening, with a chance for rainfall across the area overnight
into Friday.

The best chance for measurable precipitation will be across
southeast counties, where rainfall amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch
will be possible. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts should be light,
generally between 1/10 and 1/4 inch. Mid level lapse rates still
look steep enough for some isolated thunder across southern sections
after midnight and this was retained in the forecast. Lows tonight
will be in the 40s, with light northeast winds.

The upper level trough axis will move across the area Friday
afternoon, with precipitation ending from west to east. It will
be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler, with highs ranging from
the upper 40s north, to the lower and middle 50s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Christmas Day)

Looks like a dry forecast and mainly above normal temperatures this
weekend through Christmas Day. Upper level west-northwest flow will
dominate with a only dry cool front moving through the area Monday
night. Highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s, with possibly a few
lower 70s Monday. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  42  49  35  55  38 /  30  30   5   5   5
San Angelo  45  54  35  59  38 /  40  30   5   5   5
Junction  48  56  37  60  39 /  70  50   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/21








000
FXUS64 KSJT 182149
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front was moving south across the Big Country counties
this afternoon and will continue south across the rest of the area
through early evening. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough/upper level
disturbance was moving across the Desert Southwest and will track
east across the area late tonight and early Friday. Isentropic
ascent north of the front will increase this evening, with synoptic
scale lift increasing overnight as the aforementioned shortwave
approaches. This will lead to thickening and lowering cloud cover
this evening, with a chance for rainfall across the area overnight
into Friday.

The best chance for measurable precipitation will be across
southeast counties, where rainfall amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch
will be possible. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts should be light,
generally between 1/10 and 1/4 inch. Mid level lapse rates still
look steep enough for some isolated thunder across southern sections
after midnight and this was retained in the forecast. Lows tonight
will be in the 40s, with light northeast winds.

The upper level trough axis will move across the area Friday
afternoon, with precipitation ending from west to east. It will
be mostly cloudy and considerably cooler, with highs ranging from
the upper 40s north, to the lower and middle 50s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Christmas Day)

Looks like a dry forecast and mainly above normal temperatures this
weekend through Christmas Day. Upper level west-northwest flow will
dominate with a only dry cool front moving through the area Monday
night. Highs will be in the upper 50s and 60s, with possibly a few
lower 70s Monday. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  42  49  35  55  38 /  30  30   5   5   5
San Angelo  45  54  35  59  38 /  40  30   5   5   5
Junction  48  56  37  60  39 /  70  50   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/21








000
FXUS64 KHGX 182146
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO W & CNTL PARTS OF TEXAS
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING OF SHRA & ISO TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST
AND OFF TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS
SE TX OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS FRI. WARM SECTOR SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OF JUST OFF THE COAST AND OVERALL DYNAMICS TO POINT TO
A LOW THREAT OF WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE...BUT PRIMARY
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTN ON FRI AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THRU IN ITS WAKE. SOME
QUESTION REGARDING IF/WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS WEEKEND. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER STEEP LLVL
INVERSION. IF WE DON`T SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BOTH HIGH & LOW
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z NAM12
WAS BULLISH ON A COASTAL TROF AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF NEXT TROF THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY.
NOTICED THE 18Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF THAT THINKING AND IS MORE
ALIGNED W/ THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF.

WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MID SECTION TROF DEEPENS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU
THE AREA ON TUE. AGAIN...WITH LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN WE`D
ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DRY FROPA. COOLER AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT - CONTINUING INTO XMAS EVE.

PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO WED/THUR AND
EXPECT A RAPID RETURN AND STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW DURING ON
XMAS DAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS. POSSIBLY SHORTS WX? IT`S A MUCH
BETTER BET THAN A WHITE XMAS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. 47

&&

.MARINE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND AS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES UP
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE GULF WERE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
OFF THE MID AND SOUTH TEXAS COASTS. IF THIS AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY
FAR ENOUGH NORTH...AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TODAY. THE MODELS DO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK OFF
THE COAST...AND CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER
THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE TO ABOVE CAUTION CRITERIA
UNTIL TUESDAY.  40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  55  46  55  44 /  90  80  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  60  48  56  45 /  90  80  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  65  51  55  51 /  80  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KHGX 182146
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO W & CNTL PARTS OF TEXAS
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING OF SHRA & ISO TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST
AND OFF TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS
SE TX OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS FRI. WARM SECTOR SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OF JUST OFF THE COAST AND OVERALL DYNAMICS TO POINT TO
A LOW THREAT OF WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE...BUT PRIMARY
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTN ON FRI AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THRU IN ITS WAKE. SOME
QUESTION REGARDING IF/WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS WEEKEND. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER STEEP LLVL
INVERSION. IF WE DON`T SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BOTH HIGH & LOW
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z NAM12
WAS BULLISH ON A COASTAL TROF AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF NEXT TROF THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY.
NOTICED THE 18Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF THAT THINKING AND IS MORE
ALIGNED W/ THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF.

WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MID SECTION TROF DEEPENS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU
THE AREA ON TUE. AGAIN...WITH LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN WE`D
ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DRY FROPA. COOLER AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT - CONTINUING INTO XMAS EVE.

PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO WED/THUR AND
EXPECT A RAPID RETURN AND STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW DURING ON
XMAS DAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS. POSSIBLY SHORTS WX? IT`S A MUCH
BETTER BET THAN A WHITE XMAS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. 47

&&

.MARINE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND AS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES UP
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE GULF WERE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
OFF THE MID AND SOUTH TEXAS COASTS. IF THIS AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY
FAR ENOUGH NORTH...AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TODAY. THE MODELS DO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK OFF
THE COAST...AND CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER
THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE TO ABOVE CAUTION CRITERIA
UNTIL TUESDAY.  40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  55  46  55  44 /  90  80  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  60  48  56  45 /  90  80  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  65  51  55  51 /  80  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KEWX 182139
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST WITH A SURFACE LOW IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
VARIED CONSIDERABLY AND AREAS STUCK BENEATH THE CLOUDS WERE IN
THE MID 50S WHILE LOCATIONS WITH SOME SUNSHINE HAVE JUMPED INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE...THE LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT ALONG WITH A STOUT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. WE COULD SEE A
STRONG STORM OR TWO MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 TONIGHT...WITH HAIL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. FARTHER EAST...THE HAIL CONCERN WILL
DECREASE AND TRANSITION INTO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERN. THE
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WE/LL CONTINUE
TO RETAIN HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
WE DID OPT TO SHIFT THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
EAST OF I-35. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE LOWEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE ROUGHLY 0.10"
CAN BE EXPECTED. AMOUNTS INCREASE TO NEAR 1" ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR... WITH 1 TO 2" EAST OF I-35. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED 3" TOTAL EAST OF A KARNES CITY TO LA GRANGE LINE. A
QUICK DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN STORE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WARM AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WE HAVE INCREASED
MONDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE COLD
FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL HELP
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  52  56  46  56  41 /  90  70  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  57  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            48  54  40  55  41 /  80  60  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  64  44  60  47 /  40  20  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        49  53  41  55  42 /  90  70  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  62  42  59  44 /  80  50  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   54  57  47  58  44 / 100 100  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  59  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  60  45  60  45 /  90  70  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00







000
FXUS64 KEWX 182139
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST WITH A SURFACE LOW IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
VARIED CONSIDERABLY AND AREAS STUCK BENEATH THE CLOUDS WERE IN
THE MID 50S WHILE LOCATIONS WITH SOME SUNSHINE HAVE JUMPED INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE...THE LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD POOL ALOFT ALONG WITH A STOUT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. WE COULD SEE A
STRONG STORM OR TWO MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 TONIGHT...WITH HAIL
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. FARTHER EAST...THE HAIL CONCERN WILL
DECREASE AND TRANSITION INTO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERN. THE
LATEST MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WE/LL CONTINUE
TO RETAIN HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
WE DID OPT TO SHIFT THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREAS
EAST OF I-35. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE LOWEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE ROUGHLY 0.10"
CAN BE EXPECTED. AMOUNTS INCREASE TO NEAR 1" ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR... WITH 1 TO 2" EAST OF I-35. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED 3" TOTAL EAST OF A KARNES CITY TO LA GRANGE LINE. A
QUICK DECREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN STORE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END FRIDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WARM AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WE HAVE INCREASED
MONDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE COLD
FRONT DOES PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS WILL HELP
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              51  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  52  56  46  56  41 /  90  70  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     54  57  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            48  54  40  55  41 /  80  60  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           55  64  44  60  47 /  40  20  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        49  53  41  55  42 /  90  70  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  62  42  59  44 /  80  50  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        52  57  45  57  43 /  90  70  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   54  57  47  58  44 / 100 100  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  59  45  58  44 /  90  70  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           56  60  45  60  45 /  90  70  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...00








000
FXUS64 KLUB 182101
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS POISED TO MOVE BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING AS SFC WINDS VEER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN RESPONSE
TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THAT TROUGH
WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS SERN ARIZONA AND SWRN NEW MEXICO. MODELS
REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT...ESPECIALLY WRF-NAM AND HI-RES
MODELS...IN SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ZONES ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THEN TRACKING EWD DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTN. IN GENERAL EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE FROM THE SRN ZONES SWD
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER PRECIP THERE. MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES...ALTHOUGH THAT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMPS. WILL NUDGE POPS UP SOME INTO THE
30-40 PCT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT.
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MILDER
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO RAW MODEL OUTPUT THAN MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM. WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY BRING MORE FOG TO THE AREA IN
ADDITION TO A SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST PUSHING
WARMER AND DRYER AIR IN TO THE FA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROF.
THE LEE TROF WILL BUILD AND GATHER COLD AIR BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE TROF WILL
TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST SENDING THE COLD AIR
SURGING SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT STEPS UP ON DECK. UNFORTUNATELY THE GRINCH LOOKS TO BE HOLDING
THIS ONE ON THE TOP OF MOUNT CRUMPIT UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER...BY CHRISTMAS DAY. THAT WILL HAVE US
SINGING MELE KALIKIMAKA INSTEAD OF WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF THAT WILL
BRING THIS FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK FROM A CLOSED 534 DM LOW TO AN OPEN
WAVE. DESPITE THAT TREND...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE COLD
AS THE TROF WILL FUNNEL COLD AIR DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  50  23  54  25 /  30  10  10   0   0
TULIA         35  46  28  54  31 /  30  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  48  30  55  32 /  30  30  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     35  52  29  56  32 /  40  30  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  50  31  56  34 /  30  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   36  54  30  56  34 /  40  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  52  31  55  34 /  40  30  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     40  46  33  54  37 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          36  48  32  55  37 /  30  40  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     40  49  35  58  40 /  20  30  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51








000
FXUS64 KLUB 182101
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS POISED TO MOVE BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING AS SFC WINDS VEER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN RESPONSE
TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THAT TROUGH
WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS SERN ARIZONA AND SWRN NEW MEXICO. MODELS
REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT...ESPECIALLY WRF-NAM AND HI-RES
MODELS...IN SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ZONES ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THEN TRACKING EWD DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTN. IN GENERAL EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE FROM THE SRN ZONES SWD
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER PRECIP THERE. MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES...ALTHOUGH THAT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMPS. WILL NUDGE POPS UP SOME INTO THE
30-40 PCT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT.
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MILDER
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO RAW MODEL OUTPUT THAN MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM. WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY BRING MORE FOG TO THE AREA IN
ADDITION TO A SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST PUSHING
WARMER AND DRYER AIR IN TO THE FA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROF.
THE LEE TROF WILL BUILD AND GATHER COLD AIR BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE TROF WILL
TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST SENDING THE COLD AIR
SURGING SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT STEPS UP ON DECK. UNFORTUNATELY THE GRINCH LOOKS TO BE HOLDING
THIS ONE ON THE TOP OF MOUNT CRUMPIT UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER...BY CHRISTMAS DAY. THAT WILL HAVE US
SINGING MELE KALIKIMAKA INSTEAD OF WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF THAT WILL
BRING THIS FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK FROM A CLOSED 534 DM LOW TO AN OPEN
WAVE. DESPITE THAT TREND...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE COLD
AS THE TROF WILL FUNNEL COLD AIR DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  50  23  54  25 /  30  10  10   0   0
TULIA         35  46  28  54  31 /  30  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  48  30  55  32 /  30  30  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     35  52  29  56  32 /  40  30  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  50  31  56  34 /  30  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   36  54  30  56  34 /  40  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  52  31  55  34 /  40  30  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     40  46  33  54  37 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          36  48  32  55  37 /  30  40  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     40  49  35  58  40 /  20  30  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51







000
FXUS64 KMAF 182056
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  52  32  57  /  40  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  51  35  57  /  40  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  54  30  58  /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  64  41  61  /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  57  36  62  /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  50  33  52  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   37  52  29  57  /  40  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  58  23  60  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  54  33  58  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  53  34  57  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    40  59  32  61  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 182056
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  52  32  57  /  40  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  51  35  57  /  40  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  54  30  58  /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  64  41  61  /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  57  36  62  /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  50  33  52  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   37  52  29  57  /  40  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  58  23  60  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  54  33  58  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  53  34  57  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    40  59  32  61  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 182056
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  52  32  57  /  40  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  51  35  57  /  40  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  54  30  58  /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  64  41  61  /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  57  36  62  /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  50  33  52  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   37  52  29  57  /  40  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  58  23  60  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  54  33  58  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  53  34  57  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    40  59  32  61  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 182056
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  52  32  57  /  40  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  51  35  57  /  40  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  54  30  58  /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  64  41  61  /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  57  36  62  /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  50  33  52  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   37  52  29  57  /  40  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  58  23  60  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  54  33  58  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  53  34  57  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    40  59  32  61  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 182048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
248 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE IN THE
SHORT TERM WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG
ONCE AGAIN. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO TRY AND BE MORE
DETERMINISTIC WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THAT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE GIVEN MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. INITIAL CONCERNS ARE FOG
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND
STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WILL ADVECT WESTWARD AND UPSLOPE. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG
IN THE GRIDS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

WV LOOP AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA MOVING EASTWARD. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THE
PERIOD OF BEST OMEGA/SATURATION IN THE DEDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
AFTER ABOUT 03Z IN THE WEST SPREADING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z IN THE EAST. JUST BELOW THE DGZ IS A LAYER OF DRY
AIR THAT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THUS DELAYING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST/CENTRAL AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR CONVEYING SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. AT LEAST
SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREES FAIRLY WELL. THE DEPTH OF THE ABOVE
FREEZING WET BULB TEMPERATURES IS SUFFICIENT FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO MORE RAIN AS A RESULT. INCREASED QPF SLIGHTLY
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. VERY POWERFUL PACIFIC JET NOSES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MONDAY EAST OF A SIGNIFICANT MEAN RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A VERY STRONG TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN BY AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE OR CHRISTMAS DAY BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
HOW IT EVOLVES EARLY/MID WEEK ONCE PACIFIC JET MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. NEW 12Z EMCWF IS QUICKER WITH DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS BECOMES DEEPER BY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ON ITS WEST SIDE OVER
THE PLAINS. EXACT IMPLICATIONS FOR US ARE UNCLEAR. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNSLOPING WARMING/WIND EVENT ON MONDAY.
GFS/MEX DEPICT THIS NOW. ECMWF IS MORE EXPANSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS GIVEN ITS MORE CONSOLIDATED/SPRAWLING
SOLUTION WITH LESS DISTINCT SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT WHICH
RAISES SOME CONCERN OF NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IF THIS SOLUTION
VERIFIES. OTHERWISE DID NOT DEVIATE FROM MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS. ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT...AND
DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BRB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE WILL
BE LOW CLOUDS AND EPISODES OF FOG. FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING AT THE TAF
SITES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALY AND TEMPORARILY LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL.
EXPECT THE RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND MAY BRING SOME
SPRINKLES...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...FLURRIES...OR VERY LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...SO HAVE
OPTED TO OMIT FROM THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                33  43  29  55  28 /  20  20   5   0   5
BEAVER OK                  29  45  28  52  30 /  10  20   5   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              26  49  24  53  22 /  10   5   5   0   0
BORGER TX                  33  44  31  53  30 /  20  20   5   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              31  49  27  56  25 /  20  10   5   0   0
CANYON TX                  33  45  29  57  27 /  30  20   5   0   5
CLARENDON TX               35  41  33  54  34 /  30  30   5   0   5
DALHART TX                 27  49  23  53  21 /  20  10   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  29  48  26  54  26 /  10  10   5   0   5
HEREFORD TX                32  51  27  58  26 /  30  20   5   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                32  43  30  51  35 /  10  20   5   0   5
PAMPA TX                   32  41  32  50  32 /  20  30   5   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                35  41  35  49  36 /  20  30   5   0  10
WELLINGTON TX              37  42  35  49  38 /  20  40   5   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/17






000
FXUS64 KAMA 182048
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
248 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE IN THE
SHORT TERM WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG
ONCE AGAIN. MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO TRY AND BE MORE
DETERMINISTIC WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THAT
REMAINS A CHALLENGE GIVEN MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. INITIAL CONCERNS ARE FOG
POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND
STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WILL ADVECT WESTWARD AND UPSLOPE. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG
IN THE GRIDS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

WV LOOP AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA MOVING EASTWARD. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND CROSSES THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THE
PERIOD OF BEST OMEGA/SATURATION IN THE DEDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
AFTER ABOUT 03Z IN THE WEST SPREADING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z IN THE EAST. JUST BELOW THE DGZ IS A LAYER OF DRY
AIR THAT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THUS DELAYING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST/CENTRAL AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR CONVEYING SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. AT LEAST
SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREES FAIRLY WELL. THE DEPTH OF THE ABOVE
FREEZING WET BULB TEMPERATURES IS SUFFICIENT FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HAVE TRENDED
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO MORE RAIN AS A RESULT. INCREASED QPF SLIGHTLY
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. VERY POWERFUL PACIFIC JET NOSES INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MONDAY EAST OF A SIGNIFICANT MEAN RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A VERY STRONG TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN BY AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE OR CHRISTMAS DAY BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
HOW IT EVOLVES EARLY/MID WEEK ONCE PACIFIC JET MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. NEW 12Z EMCWF IS QUICKER WITH DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS BECOMES DEEPER BY
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES ON ITS WEST SIDE OVER
THE PLAINS. EXACT IMPLICATIONS FOR US ARE UNCLEAR. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNSLOPING WARMING/WIND EVENT ON MONDAY.
GFS/MEX DEPICT THIS NOW. ECMWF IS MORE EXPANSIVE WITH HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS GIVEN ITS MORE CONSOLIDATED/SPRAWLING
SOLUTION WITH LESS DISTINCT SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT WHICH
RAISES SOME CONCERN OF NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IF THIS SOLUTION
VERIFIES. OTHERWISE DID NOT DEVIATE FROM MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS. ANY
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT...AND
DIFFICULT TO TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BRB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE WILL
BE LOW CLOUDS AND EPISODES OF FOG. FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING AT THE TAF
SITES AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CIGS
WILL GRADUALY AND TEMPORARILY LIFT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL.
EXPECT THE RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND MAY BRING SOME
SPRINKLES...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...FLURRIES...OR VERY LIGHT SNOW.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...SO HAVE
OPTED TO OMIT FROM THE TERMINAL FCSTS AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                33  43  29  55  28 /  20  20   5   0   5
BEAVER OK                  29  45  28  52  30 /  10  20   5   0   5
BOISE CITY OK              26  49  24  53  22 /  10   5   5   0   0
BORGER TX                  33  44  31  53  30 /  20  20   5   0   5
BOYS RANCH TX              31  49  27  56  25 /  20  10   5   0   0
CANYON TX                  33  45  29  57  27 /  30  20   5   0   5
CLARENDON TX               35  41  33  54  34 /  30  30   5   0   5
DALHART TX                 27  49  23  53  21 /  20  10   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  29  48  26  54  26 /  10  10   5   0   5
HEREFORD TX                32  51  27  58  26 /  30  20   5   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                32  43  30  51  35 /  10  20   5   0   5
PAMPA TX                   32  41  32  50  32 /  20  30   5   0   5
SHAMROCK TX                35  41  35  49  36 /  20  30   5   0  10
WELLINGTON TX              37  42  35  49  38 /  20  40   5   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

02/17





000
FXUS64 KBRO 182045
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATION AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOW THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF ZAPATA INTO HEBBRONVILLE
AND NORTH OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING NORTH AND SOUTH ALL MORNING
AND HAS DEVELOP A SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE TO MFE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOW FOR
A BAND OF LIGHT BRIEF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 281 TODAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER NEVADA HEADS EAST...AND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH TX
FRIDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFT NORTHWARD
RETURNING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE PULLING ABUNDANT
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A DECENT
DIFFLUENCE AREA ALOFT WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE. CAN NOT RULED OUT AN ISOLATED CASE OF
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HAIL AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. AS THE CLOUD DECK REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 850 TEMPS ON THE INCREASE...EXPECT THE
TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE COOLER OVER
ZAPATA AND HEBBRONVILLE.

AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND MOVES EASTWARD DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND NOON TIME FRIDAY WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
BUT THE LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND MID 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A 500MB TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN HAVE BEEN FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY MOVES
EASTWARD TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD
THURSDAY PROVIDING A FAIRLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST CLOSER INTO THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENTLY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AS WE GET CLOSER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LOW SEAS. BY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN INLAND BUT BY EARLY SUNRISE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE IN THE
GULF WATERS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. INTO
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SO DOES THE CONVECTION BUT A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS INCREASING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCEC POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY BECOMING SCA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT TILL MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRI NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AS A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY MONDAY BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTH MON NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TUES MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  67  76  55  64 /  20  30  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          67  77  55  65 /  30  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            67  78  53  64 /  30  30  10  10
MCALLEN              66  79  53  64 /  30  30  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      63  75  51  64 /  40  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   68  74  59  65 /  20  30  10  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61/MARTINEZ





000
FXUS64 KBRO 182045
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATION AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOW THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF ZAPATA INTO HEBBRONVILLE
AND NORTH OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING NORTH AND SOUTH ALL MORNING
AND HAS DEVELOP A SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE TO MFE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOW FOR
A BAND OF LIGHT BRIEF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 281 TODAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER NEVADA HEADS EAST...AND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH TX
FRIDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFT NORTHWARD
RETURNING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE PULLING ABUNDANT
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A DECENT
DIFFLUENCE AREA ALOFT WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE. CAN NOT RULED OUT AN ISOLATED CASE OF
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HAIL AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. AS THE CLOUD DECK REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 850 TEMPS ON THE INCREASE...EXPECT THE
TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE COOLER OVER
ZAPATA AND HEBBRONVILLE.

AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND MOVES EASTWARD DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND NOON TIME FRIDAY WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
BUT THE LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND MID 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A 500MB TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN HAVE BEEN FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY MOVES
EASTWARD TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD
THURSDAY PROVIDING A FAIRLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST CLOSER INTO THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENTLY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AS WE GET CLOSER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LOW SEAS. BY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN INLAND BUT BY EARLY SUNRISE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE IN THE
GULF WATERS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. INTO
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SO DOES THE CONVECTION BUT A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS INCREASING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCEC POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY BECOMING SCA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT TILL MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRI NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AS A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY MONDAY BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTH MON NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TUES MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  67  76  55  64 /  20  30  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          67  77  55  65 /  30  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            67  78  53  64 /  30  30  10  10
MCALLEN              66  79  53  64 /  30  30  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      63  75  51  64 /  40  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   68  74  59  65 /  20  30  10  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61/MARTINEZ





000
FXUS64 KBRO 182045
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATION AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOW THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF ZAPATA INTO HEBBRONVILLE
AND NORTH OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING NORTH AND SOUTH ALL MORNING
AND HAS DEVELOP A SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE TO MFE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOW FOR
A BAND OF LIGHT BRIEF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 281 TODAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER NEVADA HEADS EAST...AND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH TX
FRIDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFT NORTHWARD
RETURNING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE PULLING ABUNDANT
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A DECENT
DIFFLUENCE AREA ALOFT WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE. CAN NOT RULED OUT AN ISOLATED CASE OF
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HAIL AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. AS THE CLOUD DECK REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 850 TEMPS ON THE INCREASE...EXPECT THE
TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE COOLER OVER
ZAPATA AND HEBBRONVILLE.

AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND MOVES EASTWARD DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND NOON TIME FRIDAY WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
BUT THE LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND MID 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A 500MB TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN HAVE BEEN FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY MOVES
EASTWARD TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD
THURSDAY PROVIDING A FAIRLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST CLOSER INTO THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENTLY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AS WE GET CLOSER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LOW SEAS. BY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN INLAND BUT BY EARLY SUNRISE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE IN THE
GULF WATERS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. INTO
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SO DOES THE CONVECTION BUT A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS INCREASING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCEC POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY BECOMING SCA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT TILL MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRI NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AS A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY MONDAY BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTH MON NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TUES MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  67  76  55  64 /  20  30  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          67  77  55  65 /  30  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            67  78  53  64 /  30  30  10  10
MCALLEN              66  79  53  64 /  30  30  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      63  75  51  64 /  40  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   68  74  59  65 /  20  30  10  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61/MARTINEZ





000
FXUS64 KBRO 182045
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
245 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LATEST OBSERVATION AND SAT
IMAGERY SHOW THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF ZAPATA INTO HEBBRONVILLE
AND NORTH OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING NORTH AND SOUTH ALL MORNING
AND HAS DEVELOP A SFC BOUNDARY CLOSE TO MFE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOW FOR
A BAND OF LIGHT BRIEF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF HWY 281 TODAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY
OVER NEVADA HEADS EAST...AND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS WEST AND SOUTH TX
FRIDAY.

AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFT NORTHWARD
RETURNING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE PULLING ABUNDANT
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A DECENT
DIFFLUENCE AREA ALOFT WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HIGHER CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE THE BETTER LIFT WILL BE. CAN NOT RULED OUT AN ISOLATED CASE OF
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HAIL AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO OUR CWA. AS THE CLOUD DECK REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 850 TEMPS ON THE INCREASE...EXPECT THE
TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WHILE COOLER OVER
ZAPATA AND HEBBRONVILLE.

AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND MOVES EASTWARD DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BRING TEMPS
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND NOON TIME FRIDAY WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
BUT THE LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL LOWER INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND MID 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A 500MB TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COASTAL LOW/TROUGH TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST
MEXICAN COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN HAVE BEEN FORECAST THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY MOVES
EASTWARD TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD
THURSDAY PROVIDING A FAIRLY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST CLOSER INTO THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CURRENTLY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH KEEPING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AS WE GET CLOSER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LOW SEAS. BY TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN INLAND BUT BY EARLY SUNRISE A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE IN THE
GULF WATERS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. INTO
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SO DOES THE CONVECTION BUT A
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS INCREASING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCEC POTENTIAL EARLY FRIDAY BECOMING SCA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT TILL MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE LONG TERM.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FRI NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AS A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY MONDAY BEFORE VEERING TO THE
SOUTH MON NIGHT AND SOUTHWEST TUES MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVING OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  67  76  55  64 /  20  30  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          67  77  55  65 /  30  30  10  20
HARLINGEN            67  78  53  64 /  30  30  10  10
MCALLEN              66  79  53  64 /  30  30  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      63  75  51  64 /  40  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   68  74  59  65 /  20  30  10  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

67/61/MARTINEZ





000
FXUS64 KFWD 182030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY




&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             42  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           44  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 182030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY




&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             42  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           44  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 182030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY




&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             42  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           44  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KFWD 182030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
230 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

QUITE A DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS FAR AS CLOUDS AND
TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES HAVE
RESULTED IN TEMPS INTO THE 60S WHEREAS LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
TOUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPS STILL IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING THIS EVENING. POSITION OF THE 850 FRONT
CONTINUES TO BE APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DISCRIMINATOR AS TO WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. HIGHER RES MODELS CONSISTENT WITH
KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...AS A RESULT THAT
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS (AROUND ONE-
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MAINLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

NORTH OF THE 850 MB FRONT...FAIRLY HIGH POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BETWEEN 800-700MB RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER
(AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH) AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. FURTHER
NORTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER...POPS AND ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE EVEN LOWER.

LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL END BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

COOL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THOUGH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.

COLDEST AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTHEAST SO
GENERALLY EXPECT A COOL DRY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.

WILEY




&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  48  39  52  40 /  40  60  10   5   5
WACO, TX              47  52  39  54  39 /  70  70  20   5   5
PARIS, TX             42  48  36  51  36 /  30  50  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            44  48  38  52  38 /  30  50  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  48  37  51  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
DALLAS, TX            44  48  39  53  40 /  40  60  20   5   5
TERRELL, TX           44  49  38  53  39 /  50  60  20   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         46  51  39  54  40 /  70  70  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            48  52  40  56  39 /  80  70  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     44  47  38  52  38 /  40  50  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /





000
FXUS64 KCRP 182023
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
223 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A LONG WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVG ACROSS BAJA CA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS
MEX AND APPROACH WEST TX TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS TX ON FRI.
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES W TX TONIGHT...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AS A 130KT UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER S CLOSER
TO THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH/PRE-FRONTAL BDRY WILL CONTINUE
TO MEANDER ACROSS S TX. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
DYNAMICS...THE SFC TROUGH AND PWATS OF 1.4-1.5 INCHES WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA`S/TSRA`S TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE CWA...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
MODELS PROG MOD TO STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
MODERATELY INCREASING SHEAR...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE UPPER
DYNAMICS...MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS TOWARD FRI MORNING. THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM W TO E AS THE UPPER LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TX THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGD TO REACH THE COASTLINE SOMETIME BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM ON FRI
AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A MOD
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DVLP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO S TX THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MX TEMP FCST FOR FRI IS A BIT TRICKY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE CLOUDS ERODE AND WHETHER THE CAA
WILL REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES BEFORE MX HEATING. KEPT MID 60S
ACROSS THE N TO LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE S FOR FRIDAY HIGHS. FRI
NIGHT LOWS ARE PROGD TO BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHICH
IS APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT`S EXPECTED LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL BE ENDING THIS WEEKEND AS THE LAST SRN STREAM
S/WV AFFECTS THE CWA.  THE SRN JET WL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD AFTER
THIS WEEKEND AS A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW MOSTLY PREVAILS.
THIS S/WV WL INDUCE WK CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WRN GULF WHICH WL SPREAD
CLOUDS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WL ACT ON THE INCREASING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A RAIN SHIELD
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO THE WATERS AND COASTAL BEND ON
SUNDAY.  ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS NOW BECOME WETTER FOR SUNDAY AND WL
SUBSEQUENTLY RAISE POPS TO CHC ACROSS THE WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS
AS A RESULT.  RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE CWA AND USHERS IN DRIER AIR AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.  WENT ABOVE THE SUPERBLEND FOR MONDAY GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  THE MOISTURE DEPTH
STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SO WL MAINTAIN
A DRY FCST EVEN ON TUESDAY.  A WK SFC RDG AXIS WL MOVE INTO THE CWA
ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND PRODUCE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
A RAPID WARMUP (SIMILAR TO MONDAY) IS EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS DUE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  74  51  62  50  /  40  60  10  10  10
VICTORIA          59  67  48  61  45  /  80  90  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  72  49  64  50  /  50  20  10  10  10
ALICE             66  72  49  63  49  /  50  50  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          67  71  49  60  51  /  30  80  10  10  10
COTULLA           59  67  46  63  47  /  60  30  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        67  75  49  63  50  /  40  40  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       67  72  53  61  53  /  30  60  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 182023
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
223 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A LONG WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVG ACROSS BAJA CA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS
MEX AND APPROACH WEST TX TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS TX ON FRI.
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES W TX TONIGHT...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AS A 130KT UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER S CLOSER
TO THE CWA. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH/PRE-FRONTAL BDRY WILL CONTINUE
TO MEANDER ACROSS S TX. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
DYNAMICS...THE SFC TROUGH AND PWATS OF 1.4-1.5 INCHES WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA`S/TSRA`S TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE CWA...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
MODELS PROG MOD TO STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
MODERATELY INCREASING SHEAR...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE UPPER
DYNAMICS...MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS TOWARD FRI MORNING. THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END FROM W TO E AS THE UPPER LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TX THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGD TO REACH THE COASTLINE SOMETIME BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM ON FRI
AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A MOD
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DVLP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO S TX THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE MX TEMP FCST FOR FRI IS A BIT TRICKY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST THE CLOUDS ERODE AND WHETHER THE CAA
WILL REACH THE COASTAL COUNTIES BEFORE MX HEATING. KEPT MID 60S
ACROSS THE N TO LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE S FOR FRIDAY HIGHS. FRI
NIGHT LOWS ARE PROGD TO BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHICH
IS APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT`S EXPECTED LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL BE ENDING THIS WEEKEND AS THE LAST SRN STREAM
S/WV AFFECTS THE CWA.  THE SRN JET WL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD AFTER
THIS WEEKEND AS A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW MOSTLY PREVAILS.
THIS S/WV WL INDUCE WK CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WRN GULF WHICH WL SPREAD
CLOUDS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WL ACT ON THE INCREASING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A RAIN SHIELD
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO THE WATERS AND COASTAL BEND ON
SUNDAY.  ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS NOW BECOME WETTER FOR SUNDAY AND WL
SUBSEQUENTLY RAISE POPS TO CHC ACROSS THE WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS
AS A RESULT.  RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE CWA AND USHERS IN DRIER AIR AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.  WENT ABOVE THE SUPERBLEND FOR MONDAY GIVEN
THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.  THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.  THE MOISTURE DEPTH
STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SO WL MAINTAIN
A DRY FCST EVEN ON TUESDAY.  A WK SFC RDG AXIS WL MOVE INTO THE CWA
ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND PRODUCE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
A RAPID WARMUP (SIMILAR TO MONDAY) IS EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS DUE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  74  51  62  50  /  40  60  10  10  10
VICTORIA          59  67  48  61  45  /  80  90  10  10  10
LAREDO            60  72  49  64  50  /  50  20  10  10  10
ALICE             66  72  49  63  49  /  50  50  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          67  71  49  60  51  /  30  80  10  10  10
COTULLA           59  67  46  63  47  /  60  30  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        67  75  49  63  50  /  40  40  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       67  72  53  61  53  /  30  60  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KFWD 181838 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25

&&

.UPDATE...

WILL UPDATE ZONES TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO ERODE THE CLOUDS OUT WEST
BUT HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND THE
925MB LEVEL WILL HANG TOUGH OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN AREAS. ALSO
SINCE WE ARE WITHIN A WEEK OF THE WINTER SOLSTICE...LOW SUN ANGLE
NOT GOING TO BE MUCH OF A HELP FOR TODAY.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
ONLY BE ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUDS...BUT WILL WORK THEIR WAY WELL INTO THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 OUT WEST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FOG FROM THE I-35
CORRIDOR EASTWARD THROUGH ABOUT NOON OR SO BUT NO ACCUMULATING
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WILEY



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA...AND THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST TOWARDS THE
ARIZONA AND MEXICO BORDER. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SOME VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z FWD RAOB WAS SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE
TO THE 600 MB LEVEL...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY
AIR ALOFT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FILTERING
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

THINK THAT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONLY REMAIN OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE ALL
PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE DEPTH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THIS
MORNING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF NORTH TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST
TODAY...850 MB WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY BRING WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA TODAY...BUT THIS
IS ONLY RELEVANT IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET RID OF THE LOW STRATUS
ALREADY IN PLACE.

IF THE LOW CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB UP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE...HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER THAT...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FAVORS CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE WHILE SOME OF THE
COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR BREAKS IN THE STRATUS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING WESTERLY 850 MB
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...LEANED THE FORECAST IN FAVOR OF
THE WARMER SOLUTION. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY...SO THINK THAT THE
PERSISTENT 850 WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP MIX ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE RISING STRATUS DECK TO ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE SUNSET. KEPT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
HOWEVER AS MOS SEEMS TO REPRESENT THE WARMEST WE COULD POSSIBLY
GET TODAY UNDER IDEAL CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...CAUSING LOW-LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DEPARTURE OF
THE NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
WHERE THIS FRONT MEETS THE SOUTH TEXAS CYCLOGENESIS...A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT TYPE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOWS UP BEST
AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...AND THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SECOND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

UNFORTUNATELY THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE YESTERDAY EVENING (18/00Z
MODELS) KEEP THIS 850 FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THEY WERE
ADVERTISING 24 HOURS AGO. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE CWA DURING THIS EVENT HAS DIMINISHED. LOCATIONS
THAT MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE LIKELY RELEGATED TO
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TEMPLE TO PALESTINE...ASSUMING
MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB FRONT.
A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINS SOUTHEAST OF
COLLEGE STATION...WHILE A SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD BRING THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS AS FAR NORTH AS WACO. THIS FORECAST SIDES
WITH A DRIER SOLUTION ON AVERAGE AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH KEEP
THE 850 FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA ENTIRELY.

LOCATIONS NORTH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH LIKELY INCLUDES MOST OF THE
CWA...ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MODEL MASS
FIELDS STILL INDICATE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH. THESE LOCATIONS MAY PICK
UP ANYWHERE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE PROSPECTS OF PICKING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOWER WITHOUT THE 850
MB FRONT IN PLACE. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF EVEN
FURTHER...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR BELOW ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. FORCING FOR ASCENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IS
STILL PRESENT...HOWEVER IT IS NOT AS STRONG OR PROLONGED AS IT IS
FOR POINTS SOUTH. THE LACK OF STRONGER LIFT MEANS THAT THE 850 TO
700 MB DRY AIR ADVECTING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE HARD TO OVERCOME. THIS LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT MAKES ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL LOOK HARD TO COME BY.

RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PERSISTING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE WRAPPED UP BEHIND THE TROUGH.
KEPT A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
A RESULT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IF THIS PANS OUT.

THIS WEEKEND...BEHIND FRIDAY`S UPPER TROUGH...MOST OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THE 850 MB LEVEL AND ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID-WEST CONUS...RESULTING
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS TYPICALLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION DURING THE
COOL SEASON...MAINLY BECAUSE THE BULK OF THE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE
REGION ARE FROM RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL PARTS OF THE CONTINENT
UPSTREAM. THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF A COOL SEASON
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...SO MAINTAINED A COOL AND DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO BRING A RELATIVELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR ADVERTISED IN THE MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE...DO NOT SEE MUCH EVIDENCE THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANY RAIN FOR THE REGION AT THIS TIME. BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT
ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ITS STRENGTH AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE IS THAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THINK THAT THE STRONG LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAINTAINED
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER...HOWEVER EVEN IF THIS PANS
OUT...EXPECT ANY RAINFALL TO BE VERY LIGHT AT THIS TIME. THINK
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONG CANADIAN AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DEFLECT EAST OF THE REGION...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SENDS THIS FRONT SOUTH IN THE FIRST PLACE.
BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL SEND SOME VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER WITH A FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S WITH COOLER DRY AIR IN PLACE.

CHRISTMAS AND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...CHRISTMAS IS NOW 7 DAYS OUT
AND APPROACHING OUR VALID FORECAST COVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY CHRISTMAS DAY. IF
THIS OCCURS IT WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE IN FLOW ALOFT IS ONLY DUE TO BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THAT A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
HOLD OFF ON REALLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY AFTER CHRISTMAS. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THESE
MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS POWERFUL LOOKING STORM
SYSTEM...SO WILL NOT GET INTO THE DETAILS HERE. HOWEVER THE COMMON
THEME IN THESE MODELS IS THAT A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...LIKELY RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES HOLDING WELL BELOW NORMAL THE WEEKEND AFTER
CHRISTMAS.

CAVANAUGH




&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  49  45  50  41  52 /  10  40  50  20   5
WACO, TX              52  48  51  42  54 /  10  70  70  10   5
PARIS, TX             45  43  48  40  51 /  10  30  50  30  10
DENTON, TX            47  43  49  39  52 /  10  30  40  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          46  43  49  40  51 /  10  40  50  20   5
DALLAS, TX            49  46  50  42  53 /  10  40  50  20   5
TERRELL, TX           48  46  49  42  53 /  10  50  50  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         51  48  50  43  54 /  10  70  70  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  49  51  43  56 /  10  80  80  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  43  49  37  52 /  10  40  50  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/99





000
FXUS64 KFWD 181838 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1238 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS.

WITH WEAK DECEMBER INSOLATION...LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
IMPROVE. DESPITE THE CLEARING LINE ADVANCING TO WITHIN 50 MILES OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE ONSET OF REINFORCING COLD ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD HALT ITS PROGRESS. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN IFR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERRIDE THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE...ADVANCING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TEXAS
AIRPORTS...BUT FOR ALL TAF SITES...THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE THE
ACCOMPANYING REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

25

&&

.UPDATE...

WILL UPDATE ZONES TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO ERODE THE CLOUDS OUT WEST
BUT HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND THE
925MB LEVEL WILL HANG TOUGH OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN AREAS. ALSO
SINCE WE ARE WITHIN A WEEK OF THE WINTER SOLSTICE...LOW SUN ANGLE
NOT GOING TO BE MUCH OF A HELP FOR TODAY.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY
ONLY BE ABOUT THREE TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUDS...BUT WILL WORK THEIR WAY WELL INTO THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 OUT WEST WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FOG FROM THE I-35
CORRIDOR EASTWARD THROUGH ABOUT NOON OR SO BUT NO ACCUMULATING
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

WILEY



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA...AND THIS TROUGH WAS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST TOWARDS THE
ARIZONA AND MEXICO BORDER. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED SOME VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH. THE 00Z FWD RAOB WAS SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE
TO THE 600 MB LEVEL...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY
AIR ALOFT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FILTERING
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

THINK THAT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONLY REMAIN OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE ALL
PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OR SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE DEPTH OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THIS
MORNING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF NORTH TEXAS MOVES NORTHEAST
TODAY...850 MB WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY BRING WARMER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA TODAY...BUT THIS
IS ONLY RELEVANT IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET RID OF THE LOW STRATUS
ALREADY IN PLACE.

IF THE LOW CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN A FEW
HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB UP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH THE WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE...HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY. AFTER THAT...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE FAVORS CLOUDS REMAINING IN PLACE WHILE SOME OF THE
COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS FAVOR BREAKS IN THE STRATUS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING WESTERLY 850 MB
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...LEANED THE FORECAST IN FAVOR OF
THE WARMER SOLUTION. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY...SO THINK THAT THE
PERSISTENT 850 WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY HELP MIX ENOUGH DRY
AIR INTO THE RISING STRATUS DECK TO ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BEFORE SUNSET. KEPT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
HOWEVER AS MOS SEEMS TO REPRESENT THE WARMEST WE COULD POSSIBLY
GET TODAY UNDER IDEAL CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE BAJA UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...CAUSING LOW-LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DEPARTURE OF
THE NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
WHERE THIS FRONT MEETS THE SOUTH TEXAS CYCLOGENESIS...A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT TYPE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOWS UP BEST
AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...AND THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
SECOND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

UNFORTUNATELY THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE YESTERDAY EVENING (18/00Z
MODELS) KEEP THIS 850 FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THEY WERE
ADVERTISING 24 HOURS AGO. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE CWA DURING THIS EVENT HAS DIMINISHED. LOCATIONS
THAT MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE LIKELY RELEGATED TO
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TEMPLE TO PALESTINE...ASSUMING
MODELS ARE DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE POSITION OF THE 850 MB FRONT.
A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINS SOUTHEAST OF
COLLEGE STATION...WHILE A SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD BRING THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS AS FAR NORTH AS WACO. THIS FORECAST SIDES
WITH A DRIER SOLUTION ON AVERAGE AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH KEEP
THE 850 FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA ENTIRELY.

LOCATIONS NORTH OF THIS FRONT...WHICH LIKELY INCLUDES MOST OF THE
CWA...ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MODEL MASS
FIELDS STILL INDICATE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH. THESE LOCATIONS MAY PICK
UP ANYWHERE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE PROSPECTS OF PICKING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOWER WITHOUT THE 850
MB FRONT IN PLACE. FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF EVEN
FURTHER...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY REMAINING AT OR BELOW ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. FORCING FOR ASCENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IS
STILL PRESENT...HOWEVER IT IS NOT AS STRONG OR PROLONGED AS IT IS
FOR POINTS SOUTH. THE LACK OF STRONGER LIFT MEANS THAT THE 850 TO
700 MB DRY AIR ADVECTING OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BE HARD TO OVERCOME. THIS LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT MAKES ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL LOOK HARD TO COME BY.

RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PERSISTING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE WRAPPED UP BEHIND THE TROUGH.
KEPT A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W CORRIDOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
A RESULT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IF THIS PANS OUT.

THIS WEEKEND...BEHIND FRIDAY`S UPPER TROUGH...MOST OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THE 850 MB LEVEL AND ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...AND LARGE
SCALE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID-WEST CONUS...RESULTING
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS TYPICALLY A DRY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION DURING THE
COOL SEASON...MAINLY BECAUSE THE BULK OF THE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE
REGION ARE FROM RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL PARTS OF THE CONTINENT
UPSTREAM. THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF A COOL SEASON
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...SO MAINTAINED A COOL AND DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO BRING A RELATIVELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR ADVERTISED IN THE MID TO UPPER
TROPOSPHERE...DO NOT SEE MUCH EVIDENCE THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANY RAIN FOR THE REGION AT THIS TIME. BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT
ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ITS STRENGTH AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE IS THAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LIFT TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL LIFT...THINK THAT THE STRONG LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAINTAINED
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER...HOWEVER EVEN IF THIS PANS
OUT...EXPECT ANY RAINFALL TO BE VERY LIGHT AT THIS TIME. THINK
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONG CANADIAN AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DEFLECT EAST OF THE REGION...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SENDS THIS FRONT SOUTH IN THE FIRST PLACE.
BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL SEND SOME VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAYBE 5 DEGREES COOLER WITH A FULL DAY OF SUNSHINE BEHIND
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S WITH COOLER DRY AIR IN PLACE.

CHRISTMAS AND THE EXTENDED FORECAST...CHRISTMAS IS NOW 7 DAYS OUT
AND APPROACHING OUR VALID FORECAST COVERAGE. AT THIS TIME...THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY CHRISTMAS DAY. IF
THIS OCCURS IT WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE IN FLOW ALOFT IS ONLY DUE TO BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THAT A POWERFUL UP