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000
FXUS64 KEWX 191151
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
651 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO JUST UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO HAVE POPS ALL DAY FOR THE NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
STILL EXPECTING SPOTTY COVERAGE AND LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MAIN CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE
INCREASING MOIST GULF FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...AND PACIFIC MOIST AIR
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AS A RAGGED UPPER LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SMALLER VORTICITY CENTERS
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER CIRCULATION...WITH ONE TIMED EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA...BUT THE SECOND WILL AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE LOW POPS WERE ADDED FOR AN OVERNIGHT WEAK MCS OR
CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL ORIGINATE ON THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING EAST.

ANOTHER PIECE OF VORTICITY AND THE APPROACH OF A JET STREAK/S LEFT
EXIT REGION SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE AGAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OVERALL...QPF WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  60  78  63  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  57  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  58  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  59  77  62  83 /  -   10  20  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  64  81  65  87 /  20  30  30  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  59  77  63  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  63  82  65  86 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  58  78  61  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  59  79  61  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  61  79  63  85 /  -   10  20  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  61  81  63  86 /  -   10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26





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000
FXUS64 KAMA 191149
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE PROBABLY AT KAMA OR KDHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
PREVAILING -SHRA OR -TSRA THOUGH CERTAINLY COULD SEE THAT BEING ADDED
IN LATER ISSUANCES.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 191149
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE PROBABLY AT KAMA OR KDHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
PREVAILING -SHRA OR -TSRA THOUGH CERTAINLY COULD SEE THAT BEING ADDED
IN LATER ISSUANCES.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 191149
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE PROBABLY AT KAMA OR KDHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
PREVAILING -SHRA OR -TSRA THOUGH CERTAINLY COULD SEE THAT BEING ADDED
IN LATER ISSUANCES.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 191149
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE PROBABLY AT KAMA OR KDHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
PREVAILING -SHRA OR -TSRA THOUGH CERTAINLY COULD SEE THAT BEING ADDED
IN LATER ISSUANCES.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/99




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000
FXUS64 KCRP 191148
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
648 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR VISIBILITIES OWING TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH/EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 181. THE FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z. AFTERWARD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. MODERATE AMBIENT ONSHORE FLOW THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WIND SPEED. PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WEST OF U.S.
ROUTE 281 THIS AFTN AND TNGT. FURTHER...MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY
DEVELOP GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16
DRG THE 09-12Z SUNDAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WEAK
RIDGE AXIS/CALM WIND AND NEAR SURFACE MSTR/DRY ALOFT. ANTICIPATE
THAT DENSE FOG WL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS AND MSTR (NAM DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES)
FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVR THE WRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN/TNGT THEN AREAWIDE
SUNDAY. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 BASED IN
PART ON SREF PROB.

MARINE...ANTICIPATE ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE NRN BAY WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MARGINAL MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.3" TO 1.5" RANGE AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING AN UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND DECENT
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING AT THE SURFACE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY ON BOTH THE US AND MEXICAN SIDE OF
THE RIO GRANDE...WITH STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE REAR LEFT QUADRANT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND A DRYING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A DECAYING
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. BY MID
WEEK...RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MAY SEE SCEC
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  64  79  65  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          81  59  80  62  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
LAREDO            84  67  86  66  87  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  63  83  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  65  75  65  78  /  10  10  20  20  20
COTULLA           84  64  84  63  86  /  20  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  64  82  65  83  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  65  74  66  77  /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 191148
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
648 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR VISIBILITIES OWING TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH/EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 181. THE FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z. AFTERWARD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. MODERATE AMBIENT ONSHORE FLOW THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WIND SPEED. PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WEST OF U.S.
ROUTE 281 THIS AFTN AND TNGT. FURTHER...MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY
DEVELOP GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16
DRG THE 09-12Z SUNDAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WEAK
RIDGE AXIS/CALM WIND AND NEAR SURFACE MSTR/DRY ALOFT. ANTICIPATE
THAT DENSE FOG WL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS AND MSTR (NAM DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES)
FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVR THE WRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN/TNGT THEN AREAWIDE
SUNDAY. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 BASED IN
PART ON SREF PROB.

MARINE...ANTICIPATE ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE NRN BAY WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MARGINAL MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.3" TO 1.5" RANGE AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING AN UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND DECENT
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING AT THE SURFACE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY ON BOTH THE US AND MEXICAN SIDE OF
THE RIO GRANDE...WITH STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE REAR LEFT QUADRANT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND A DRYING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A DECAYING
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. BY MID
WEEK...RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MAY SEE SCEC
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  64  79  65  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          81  59  80  62  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
LAREDO            84  67  86  66  87  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  63  83  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  65  75  65  78  /  10  10  20  20  20
COTULLA           84  64  84  63  86  /  20  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  64  82  65  83  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  65  74  66  77  /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 191148
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
648 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR VISIBILITIES OWING TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH/EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 181. THE FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z. AFTERWARD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. MODERATE AMBIENT ONSHORE FLOW THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WIND SPEED. PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WEST OF U.S.
ROUTE 281 THIS AFTN AND TNGT. FURTHER...MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY
DEVELOP GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16
DRG THE 09-12Z SUNDAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WEAK
RIDGE AXIS/CALM WIND AND NEAR SURFACE MSTR/DRY ALOFT. ANTICIPATE
THAT DENSE FOG WL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS AND MSTR (NAM DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES)
FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVR THE WRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN/TNGT THEN AREAWIDE
SUNDAY. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 BASED IN
PART ON SREF PROB.

MARINE...ANTICIPATE ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE NRN BAY WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MARGINAL MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.3" TO 1.5" RANGE AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING AN UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND DECENT
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING AT THE SURFACE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY ON BOTH THE US AND MEXICAN SIDE OF
THE RIO GRANDE...WITH STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE REAR LEFT QUADRANT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND A DRYING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A DECAYING
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. BY MID
WEEK...RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MAY SEE SCEC
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  64  79  65  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          81  59  80  62  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
LAREDO            84  67  86  66  87  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  63  83  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  65  75  65  78  /  10  10  20  20  20
COTULLA           84  64  84  63  86  /  20  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  64  82  65  83  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  65  74  66  77  /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 191148
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
648 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR VISIBILITIES OWING TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH/EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 181. THE FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z. AFTERWARD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. MODERATE AMBIENT ONSHORE FLOW THIS
EVENING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WIND SPEED. PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR WEST OF U.S.
ROUTE 281 THIS AFTN AND TNGT. FURTHER...MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY
DEVELOP GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16
DRG THE 09-12Z SUNDAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WEAK
RIDGE AXIS/CALM WIND AND NEAR SURFACE MSTR/DRY ALOFT. ANTICIPATE
THAT DENSE FOG WL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS AND MSTR (NAM DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES)
FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVR THE WRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN/TNGT THEN AREAWIDE
SUNDAY. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 BASED IN
PART ON SREF PROB.

MARINE...ANTICIPATE ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE NRN BAY WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MARGINAL MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.3" TO 1.5" RANGE AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING AN UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND DECENT
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING AT THE SURFACE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY ON BOTH THE US AND MEXICAN SIDE OF
THE RIO GRANDE...WITH STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE REAR LEFT QUADRANT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND A DRYING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A DECAYING
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. BY MID
WEEK...RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MAY SEE SCEC
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  64  79  65  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          81  59  80  62  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
LAREDO            84  67  86  66  87  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  63  83  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  65  75  65  78  /  10  10  20  20  20
COTULLA           84  64  84  63  86  /  20  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  64  82  65  83  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  65  74  66  77  /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 191147
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
A few low clouds showing up this morning across far southern
counties near SOA...but not enough to warrant mention of MVFR
ceilings in area TAFs this morning. Will see some mid level clouds
move in ahead of an upper shortwave later this afternoon/evening.
Also expecting a few thunderstorms mainly after 0Z ahead of the
upper trough...but location and coverage is too uncertain to include
mention in TAFs at this time.  Better chance of storms will be just
beyond this TAF valid period into Sunday.  Winds mainly
southeast...below 20 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Increasing rain chances for this weekend...

Upper air analysis shows an upper low over southern California with
a weak ridge over central and east Texas.  A shortwave trough ahead
of the main upper low is evident on water vapor imagery moving into
far west Texas this morning.  Already seeing showers and
thunderstorms over west Texas and eastern New Mexico associated with
this shortwave.  Will see increasing cloud cover today across west
central Texas...with increasing rain chance for this
evening/overnight as the shortwave approaches the area. Can not rule
out a few strong or isolated severe storms this evening with decent
shear over the area. However...cloud cover will somewhat limit
instability. Will see afternoon highs today pretty close to
yesterday`s highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

LONG TERM...
(Easter Sunday through next Saturday)

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Easter Sunday, with
another round of strong to severe storms possible across southern
sections on Monday.

A short wave trough will be situated over southern Colorado and
eastern New Mexico early Easter morning and will move slowly east
across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. At the
surface, a dryline will set up across west Texas during the day
and will mix east to our western border by late afternoon. As the
short wave moves east of the area Sunday evening, a cold front will
move across the area late Sunday night and Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected across much of the area on Easter, with
another round of convection possible along the cold front across
southern sections on Monday.

The main concern on Easter will be the potential for strong to
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Surface
heating along and east of the dryline will result in moderate
instability across western counties by afternoon, with bulk shear
between 35 and 45 KT. This would support the potential for strong to
severe storms, including supercells with the primary hazard being
large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado threat cannot be
ruled out but low level shear will be weaker which will limit the
tornado potential. Activity will linger into the evening hours with
additional convection possible along the cold front Sunday night.

On Monday, the cold front is expected to stall across southern
sections by afternoon, then move south of the area during the
evening hours. Models continue to indicate convective development
along the front by late afternoon and have added slight POP`s across
this area into Monday evening. Could be looking at another round of
strong to severe storms south of the front, where models show
moderate instability developing, along with decent shear still in
place.

Dry and warm weather is expected Tuesday as an upper level ridge
develops across the Plains. An upper level trough is progged to move
east across the Rockies on Wednesday and across the Plains on
Thursday. Models continue to show an active dryline late Wednesday
afternoon and evening as weak disturbances ahead of the main trough
move across West Texas. Added slight POP`s for Wednesday evening
this forecast cycle. Dry, warm and breezy conditions are expected on
Thursday as a dryline advances east across much of the area.
Currently going with a dry forecast into next weekend but models
show another possible trough affecting the area which may give us
another shot of rainfall.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  59  78  62  83 /   5  30  40  20  10
San Angelo  80  59  79  62  85 /  10  30  40  20  10
Junction  81  60  77  63  83 /  10  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 191142
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
642 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. HIGH CANOPY WITH A VEERING EASTERLY BREEZE TO ONSHORE BY
MID-DAY. A HIGHER PROB OF RADIATIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY THWART AREAWIDE DENSE...BUT WITH A
WEAK WIND FIELD...EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MORE
RURAL WIND-PROTECTED TERMINALS BY SUNRISE EASTER. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG (SOME DENSE) ARE FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE BAY
CITY AREA TO ANGLETON. EXPECT EVERYTHING TO LIFT AND BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS MOISTURE FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING AROUND THE NORTHWEST
MEXICO AREA SPREADS THIS WAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP (SEE SPC`S
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK). ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
STATE. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AROUND MID
WEEK.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO
THE AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND LOW RAIN CHANCES
COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
LIKE IT MIGHT END UP BEING ON THE BREEZY SIDE.  42

&&

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT NEARING THE WATERS TUESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY WASH OUT INLAND...
TURNING MARITIME WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WINDS...PICK
SEA HEIGHTS UP A COUPLE OF FEET BY LATE WORK WEEK. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  59  80  62  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  60  81  63  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  64  77  67  77 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KEWX 191133 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE W/SW. THIS MORNING
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WITH THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE MUCH IF ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
AFTER 16Z WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CIGS DEVELOP AROUND 4K FEET.
THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 08Z-10Z WHEN MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST WITH VSBYS REDUCED TO
4SM-5SM. DID NOT INCLUDE EXCEPT AT KAUS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS AFTER 16Z. AFTER SUNSET WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUP AT KDRT FOR TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MAIN CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE
INCREASING MOIST GULF FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...AND PACIFIC MOIST AIR
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AS A RAGGED UPPER LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SMALLER VORTICITY CENTERS
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER CIRCULATION...WITH ONE TIMED EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA...BUT THE SECOND WILL AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE LOW POPS WERE ADDED FOR AN OVERNIGHT WEAK MCS OR
CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL ORIGINATE ON THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING EAST.

ANOTHER PIECE OF VORTICITY AND THE APPROACH OF A JET STREAK/S LEFT
EXIT REGION SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE AGAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OVERALL...QPF WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY AND
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN INTERESTING SCENARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE LAST MAIN
VORTICITY CENTER AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS COINCIDE WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...AND THE ARRIVAL OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW ALL OF THIS COMING TOGETHER OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO
INITIATE AND ENHANCE CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THERE IS ENOUGH
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...AND OVERALL STORM MOTION COULD BE A SLOW
5-10 KTS FOR RIGHT MOVING STORMS...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY MOVE NEARLY
DUE EAST GIVEN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS. THE ST. LOUIS
UNIVERSITY CIPS WEBSITE ANALOGS SHOW WIND AND HAIL DAMAGE FOR THE
HILL COUNTRY FROM PAST SIMILAR EVENTS. AGREE WITH THE DAY 3 SPC
OUTLOOK FOR THIS THREAT AND HAVE TAKEN THE UNUSUAL STEP OF
INCLUDING IT IN THE HWO AND ZFP AT THIS RANGE AS A PRECAUTIONARY
HEADS-UP COMING OUT OF EASTER WEEKEND. THIS COULD IMPACT METRO
AUSTIN WITH SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...FAIRLY FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...SO
ONLY INCLUDED 20 POPS AT THIS RANGE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...
BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  60  78  63  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  57  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  58  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  59  77  62  83 /  -   10  20  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  64  81  65  87 /  20  30  30  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  59  77  63  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  63  82  65  86 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  58  78  61  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  59  79  61  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  61  79  63  85 /  -   10  20  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  61  81  63  86 /  -   10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLUB 191126
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT LBB LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT EVEN IF THIS OCCURS THIS LAYER WILL BECOME VFR
BY 18Z. OTHER CONCERN AT LBB IS FOR AN ABBREVIATED ROUND OF TSRA
LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVNG. SPOTTY LIGHT SHRA IN SERN NM EARLY
THIS MRNG SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF LBB BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED ROUND
OF PRECIP EXITS ERN NM THIS AFTN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW.

CURRENT THINKING IS ANY TSRA AT LBB LATER TODAY WILL BEST BE
HANDLED WITH A TEMPO IN FUTURE TAFS AS THIS THREAT IS STILL TOO
DISTANT AND BRIEF FOR MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. CDS LOOKS TO
AVOID ALL LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP. WIND-WISE...INITIALLY LIGHT SLY
WINDS TO ACCELERATE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MRNG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WAS SLOWLY BEING REALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WELL AHEAD OF A FILLING UPPER
LOW CROSSING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT 09Z. PRECIP ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS BEING DRIVING PRIMARILY BY INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE NOW TO OUR EAST.
WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWS THE MOST DYNAMIC LIFT IN THE FORM OF
HEIGHT FALLS IS STILL WEST OF THIS INITIAL REGION OF LIFT IN FAR
SWRN NM...SO WE STILL EXPECT OUR BEST PRECIP CHANCES TODAY TO BE
RELEGATED TO THE AFTN AND EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DEEPER
LIFT.

A FEATURE OF INTEREST ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS IS A
RESPECTABLE 700MB S/W TROUGH PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN. GIVEN THE NORTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY OF THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT S/W TROUGH...AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE PRECIP AT ALL. OPTED TO TIGHTEN
THE POP GRADIENT BECAUSE OF THIS WHILE ALSO RAISING VALUES TO HIGH
CHANCE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE FOCUSED LIFT AND DEEPER
SATURATION ARE MOST LIKELY. POPS AFTER 06Z ARE BEING KEPT ON THE
LOW SIDE AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING 700-500MB S/W TROUGH...BUT THIS STORY DOES CHANGE BY THE
START OF THE LONG TERM WINDOW AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW
PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. FOR THE 500 J/KG OF AVERAGE MLCAPE
PROGGED THIS AFTN...MODEL WIND PROFILES POINT TO LARGELY BENIGN
CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR.

ONLY CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS WAS TO NUDGE VALUES UP OFF THE CAPROCK
WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNSET.

LONG TERM...
EASTER SUNDAY APPEARS TO START OFF WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION AND A LULL IN PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY. AS
THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
OPEN WAVE...A WEAK DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND START TO MOVE EAST WITH THE PASSING WAVE. MODELS ARE
GENERATING SBCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INDICATE ONLY ABOUT HALF OF WHAT THE MODEL FIELDS
INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO A PRETTY GOOD CAP EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH
WILL INITIALLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN SOME
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS MOSTLY THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME...SOME OF THE
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO BIG OF AN
ISSUE RIGHT NOW. TWEAKED POPS UP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
LOWERED THEM ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROF PASSAGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BRINGING
MAINLY A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HELP TO
BRING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAY. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SOMEWHAT MOIST EVEN WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME ELEVATED CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. INVERTED-V PROFILES WOULD
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA OR A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HOWEVER
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SO THERE COULD BE A FEW WEAK
DOWNBURSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON /IF/ ANY PRECIPITATION CAN DEVELOP.

TUESDAY REMAINS FAIRLY WARM AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP A DRYLINE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION RANGING FROM NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE IN THE GFS TO
ROUGHLY A SILVERTON TO TAHOKA LINE IN THE ECMWF. ALL MODELS BREAK
OUT PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS EVEN WITH HINTS OF A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE. CONTINUED
LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BUT
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

GFS ALSO HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF SWING OUT IN THE SAME
REGION. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE GFS THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OUT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONLY SIMILARITY IS THAT BOTH MODELS PUSH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY IN
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY AIRMASS THAN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR IF WE
REMAIN IN A DRY WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SO FEW CHANGES MADE FOR
THE LAST THREE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  50  75  49  77 /  50  30  20  10  10
TULIA         73  54  77  50  78 /  30  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     74  54  77  52  80 /  40  40  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     71  54  79  55  80 /  50  40  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  56  80  55  81 /  40  40  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   71  55  79  55  79 /  50  40  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    72  56  80  57  80 /  50  40  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  59  81  58  82 /  10  20  40  30  10
SPUR          76  57  79  60  84 /  20  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     79  59  81  60  85 /  10  20  40  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBRO 191118
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
618 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDINESS AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST HAS FAILED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS OVER
THE BRO AND HRL AERODROMES...AND CLOUDINESS AROUND 7K FEET OVER
MFE. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME BREEZY AND CLOUD DECKS RE-FORM AT LOWER BUT ACCEPTABLE
LEVELS. MORE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LOWERING DECKS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT...WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS WAFTING OVERHEAD FROM NEIGHBORING
MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATION STATIONS ARE PICKING UP PATCHY LIGHT FOG
WITHIN CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTY...HOWEVER.

TODAY...THE AXIS OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM DIRECTLY OVER THE BRO CWFA TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MOST RECENT KBRO UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED JUST
AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...HOWEVER THAT AMOUNT SHOULD
CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY SUNSET. STILL...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF
THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST. WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S...SIMILAR TEMPERATURES...IF NOT JUST A
SMIDGE HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING OVER THE NEIGHBORING MEXICAN
STATES OF COAHUILA AND NUEVO LEON WILL INITIATE CONVECTION THERE...
AND SOME OF THIS MAY SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE BRO CWFA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD...BUT NEAR
NORMAL...OVERNIGHT LOWS.

SUNDAY...INHERITED ISOLATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...
AND THIS WAS RETAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WITH CONTINUED MID-
LEVEL TROUGHINESS PRESENT OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. ALTHOUGH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LARGELY BE IN THE FORM ON STREAMER
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING/SPEED/AND STRENGTH OF THE
NEXT 500 MB TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN OVER 1.50 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING GENERALLY INTACT OVERHEAD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE MID 90S ACROSS THE WEST BY LATE WEEK.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION FOG AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN THAT WINDS WILL FULLY DECOUPLE AT
NIGHT.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 8 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
OVER 3.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND
EXTENDED OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRODUCING
GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE ON SUNDAY
DUE TO BREEZY WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS
WILL INTERACT WILL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXERCISE CAUTION AND/OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
WATERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191109
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
508 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRY US OUT STARTING ON SUNDAY...THOUGH
A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND THEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS WEST FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE INCREASE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES OVER THE LOWLANDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW OVER SW ARIZONA WITH MAIN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW
DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT MID/HIGH LEVELS WHILE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGS IN SOME MOISTURE ALSO. TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PW`S OF AROUND .7 -
.8 INCHES...WITH SLIGHTLY WETTER AIRMASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS
NOT BRINGING MAIN TROUGH THROUGH UNTIL LATE TONIGHT SO CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH BROAD SCALE LIFT WILL CONTINUE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTH
INTO THE BOOTHEEL EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS SINCE MOVED UP FROM
ABOUT DEMING TO SILVER CITY AND NORTHWARD. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM ABOUT .25-.50 INCHES IN THIS AREA. FORTUNATELY STORM
MOVEMENT IS RELATIVELY FAST SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOOD
POTENTIAL. NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS NICELY ALTHOUGH THEIR QPFS ARE
OVERDONE. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THE WEST HALF THIS MORNING AND
THEN MORE UNIFORM THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH ON THE
SILVER BURN AREA AS MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THAT
AREA. BEST GUESS IS THAT WE WOULD NEED TO SEE ABOUT .75+ INCHES FALL
FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THAT AREA TO START WORRYING ABOUT FLOODING. AS FOR
THE STORMS...LATEST MODELS SHOWING HIGHER MUCAPE VALUES THAN EARLIER
RUNS...WITH VALUES OF AROUND 500 TO 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
NOT MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND WITH DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS...UPDRAFT TOWERS MAY SEE SOME DIFFICULTY IN MAINTAINING. THAT
SAID...WITH WBZ AT OR BELOW 12K FT MSL...SOME HAIL IS LIKELY ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS.

MAIN TROUGH IS THROUGH THE AREA SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...WITH BRIEF NVA/SUBSIDENCE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAK
IMPULSES MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS DUE TO THIS.
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT ON
MONDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME WEAK PVA AND UPWARD MOTION. WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY PERSISTING AND PW`S OF AROUND .5 INCHES...WILL
KEEP LOW MOUNTAIN POPS IN FOR ONE MORE DAY.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...STRONGER WEST WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
KICK IN WITH STRONG WARMING TREND. WARMEST DAYS SHOULD BE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE WINDIEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z-20/12Z...
GENL CONDS SCT-BKN150 BKN250. SCATTERED 6SM -TSRA BKN100 WITH A FEW
1-3SM +TSRA OVC080. TSTMS MOST FREQUENT WEST OF DEMING THIS
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE BECOMING MORE EVEN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW OVER SW ARIZONA CONTINUES TO BRING UP MOISTURE ALOFT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE AT THE SURFACE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALSO BRING IN
SOME MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
THE RETURN OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THE
MOISTURE SUNDAY...THOUGH A FEW MOUNTAINS SHOWERS/TSTSM STILL
POSSIBLE. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH A WARMUP.
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE INTO WINDY CATEGORY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PERHAPS
BRINGING FIRE CONDITIONS BACK TO NEAR CRITICAL. VENTILATION RATES
GOOD OR BETTER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH VERY LOW (2 OR 3) HAINES
INDICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77  56  80  58  85 /  50  40   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           75  53  76  52  82 /  60  60   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              75  52  77  54  82 /  40  40  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              75  50  77  52  82 /  40  40  10   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              54  41  54  39  62 /  70  60  30  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   74  52  76  51  81 /  40  40  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             65  50  70  48  76 /  40  40  20  10   0
DEMING                  76  47  78  48  83 /  40  40  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               75  48  77  50  83 /  30  30   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      77  56  79  59  83 /  50  40   0   0   0
DELL CITY               73  45  78  45  81 /  60  60  10   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            82  59  84  58  88 /  60  60   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              67  52  71  53  75 /  60  60   0   0   0
FABENS                  79  51  80  54  85 /  50  40   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            76  55  78  56  82 /  40  40   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          73  59  76  61  81 /  40  40  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           74  44  76  45  82 /  40  40  10   0   0
HATCH                   74  47  76  49  82 /  40  40  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                75  57  76  55  81 /  40  40   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               76  51  80  52  83 /  40  40  10   0   0
MAYHILL                 59  45  63  45  68 /  70  60  30  20  10
MESCALERO               62  45  65  38  69 /  60  60  30  20  10
TIMBERON                59  44  63  38  68 /  60  60  30  10  10
WINSTON                 64  45  68  45  73 /  50  50  30  10   0
HILLSBORO               67  55  70  56  77 /  40  40  20   0   0
SPACEPORT               72  46  74  51  79 /  40  40  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  44  68  41  74 /  50  50  30  20   0
HURLEY                  68  50  70  48  76 /  40  40  20   0   0
CLIFF                   69  43  71  40  77 /  40  40  20  10   0
MULE CREEK              67  40  69  37  76 /  50  40  20  10   0
FAYWOOD                 67  50  70  50  75 /  40  40  20   0   0
ANIMAS                  76  51  78  54  84 /  30  30   0   0   0
HACHITA                 75  49  77  49  82 /  30  30   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          78  51  80  54  85 /  30  30   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              72  48  75  48  80 /  30  30   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/HEFNER








  [top]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 191056
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
556 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8 TO 10 KTS AROUND
15Z /10 AM/. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY CLOUD COVER BEING IN THE FORM OF
CIRRUS. SOME STRATUS MAY SURGE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING...AND WE HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LINE FOR THE EXTENDED DFW TAF TO INCLUDE
A CLOUD DECK AT 2500 FT AT 7 AM /13Z SUNDAY/. RAIN CHANCES PRIOR
TO 18Z SUNDAY STILL APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE DFW EXTENDED
TAF. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AFTER 20/18Z AS
A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO FAR
WEST TEXAS NEAR EL PASO AT 0730Z /230 AM CDT/. LIGHTNING WAS
DETECTED OVER WEST TEXAS SOUTH OF CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WEST TEXAS TODAY.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF
NORTH TEXAS...AND CHANCES WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. STRONG LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NEW MEXICO. WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND CHANCES WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  61  78  65  80 /   5  10  30  30  40
WACO, TX              78  60  78  61  81 /   5  10  30  20  30
PARIS, TX             77  57  78  61  77 /   5   5  20  20  50
DENTON, TX            79  59  78  63  79 /   5  10  40  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          78  57  78  64  78 /   5  10  30  30  40
DALLAS, TX            79  62  78  65  79 /   5  10  30  30  40
TERRELL, TX           78  58  78  62  79 /   5   5  20  20  40
CORSICANA, TX         78  59  79  61  79 /   5   5  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            78  58  76  59  84 /   5  10  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78  58  78  61  82 /   5  20  40  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMAF 191053
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
553 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming into
West Texas/SE NM ahead of an upper level trough over SW AZ, and will
result in increasing/lowering cloud cover over the next 24 hours.
Models develop a MVFR stratus deck on return flow this AM, w/some of
this making it into KMAF before 18Z. Otherwise, buffer soundings
suggest a widespread cu field developing by late morning, w/cigs
3.5-6 kft agl. Area radars show some -SHRA in the area, and models
suggest more convection will develop into western terminals by
late morning. Cigs should remain VFR in convection, except SE NM,
where they could dip into MVFR at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Light showers are currently falling across parts of southeast New
Mexico and the Trans Pecos.  This activity is expected to spread
eastward through the day with thunderstorms possible.  The heaviest
rain will generally be south and west of the Pecos River, but the
precipitation is expected to reach to the Permian Basin by this
evening.  An upper level trough is currently approaching the region
and is providing upper level lift with shortwaves moving over the
area.  Higher CAPE and bulk shear values will be present across the
Davis Mountains southward to the Rio Grande this afternoon so an
isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

The upper level trough will move over the Texas panhandle into
Oklahoma on Sunday with the area of rain shifting to the east.  0 to
6 km Bulk shear values will be around 50 kts and CAPE values will be
over 1000 J/kg across the Lower Trans Pecos and southeast Permian
Basin so severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area on
Sunday.  Showers and thunderstorms will linger across the area on
Monday as shortwaves continue to move over the area on the backside
of the upper trough.  Precipitation coverage is not expected to be
as widespread on Monday with the low level moisture moving east of
the area.  Temperatures will warm up to slightly above average
values on Monday despite a northerly wind shift during the
afternoon.

The upper trough will move toward the east coast on Tuesday with
upper ridging developing over the region.  On Wednesday, an upper
trough will move toward the Northern Plains with a lee surface
trough and dryline developing across the CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible along and east of the dryline during the afternoon hours
although did not add in pops to the forecast yet.  Temperatures will
warm up to around 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday with the
presence of the surface trough.  This upper trough will move over
the Great Lakes region by the end of next week with upper ridging
once again developing over the area.  Temperatures will remain above
average through the extended forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS64 KMAF 191053
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
553 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming into
West Texas/SE NM ahead of an upper level trough over SW AZ, and will
result in increasing/lowering cloud cover over the next 24 hours.
Models develop a MVFR stratus deck on return flow this AM, w/some of
this making it into KMAF before 18Z. Otherwise, buffer soundings
suggest a widespread cu field developing by late morning, w/cigs
3.5-6 kft agl. Area radars show some -SHRA in the area, and models
suggest more convection will develop into western terminals by
late morning. Cigs should remain VFR in convection, except SE NM,
where they could dip into MVFR at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Light showers are currently falling across parts of southeast New
Mexico and the Trans Pecos.  This activity is expected to spread
eastward through the day with thunderstorms possible.  The heaviest
rain will generally be south and west of the Pecos River, but the
precipitation is expected to reach to the Permian Basin by this
evening.  An upper level trough is currently approaching the region
and is providing upper level lift with shortwaves moving over the
area.  Higher CAPE and bulk shear values will be present across the
Davis Mountains southward to the Rio Grande this afternoon so an
isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

The upper level trough will move over the Texas panhandle into
Oklahoma on Sunday with the area of rain shifting to the east.  0 to
6 km Bulk shear values will be around 50 kts and CAPE values will be
over 1000 J/kg across the Lower Trans Pecos and southeast Permian
Basin so severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area on
Sunday.  Showers and thunderstorms will linger across the area on
Monday as shortwaves continue to move over the area on the backside
of the upper trough.  Precipitation coverage is not expected to be
as widespread on Monday with the low level moisture moving east of
the area.  Temperatures will warm up to slightly above average
values on Monday despite a northerly wind shift during the
afternoon.

The upper trough will move toward the east coast on Tuesday with
upper ridging developing over the region.  On Wednesday, an upper
trough will move toward the Northern Plains with a lee surface
trough and dryline developing across the CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible along and east of the dryline during the afternoon hours
although did not add in pops to the forecast yet.  Temperatures will
warm up to around 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday with the
presence of the surface trough.  This upper trough will move over
the Great Lakes region by the end of next week with upper ridging
once again developing over the area.  Temperatures will remain above
average through the extended forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS64 KMAF 191001
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
500 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Light showers are currently falling across parts of southeast New
Mexico and the Trans Pecos.  This activity is expected to spread
eastward through the day with thunderstorms possible.  The heaviest
rain will generally be south and west of the Pecos River, but the
precipitation is expected to reach to the Permian Basin by this
evening.  An upper level trough is currently approaching the region
and is providing upper level lift with shortwaves moving over the
area.  Higher CAPE and bulk shear values will be present across the
Davis Mountains southward to the Rio Grande this afternoon so an
isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

The upper level trough will move over the Texas panhandle into
Oklahoma on Sunday with the area of rain shifting to the east.  0 to
6 km Bulk shear values will be around 50 kts and CAPE values will be
over 1000 J/kg across the Lower Trans Pecos and southeast Permian
Basin so severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area on
Sunday.  Showers and thunderstorms will linger across the area on
Monday as shortwaves continue to move over the area on the backside
of the upper trough.  Precipitation coverage is not expected to be
as widespread on Monday with the low level moisture moving east of
the area.  Temperatures will warm up to slightly above average
values on Monday despite a northerly wind shift during the
afternoon.

The upper trough will move toward the east coast on Tuesday with
upper ridging developing over the region.  On Wednesday, an upper
trough will move toward the Northern Plains with a lee surface
trough and dryline developing across the CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible along and east of the dryline during the afternoon hours
although did not add in pops to the forecast yet.  Temperatures will
warm up to around 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday with the
presence of the surface trough.  This upper trough will move over
the Great Lakes region by the end of next week with upper ridging
once again developing over the area.  Temperatures will remain above
average through the extended forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  58  80  58  /  40  40  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              76  60  80  60  /  20  40  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                74  53  82  53  /  70  40  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  64  82  65  /  20  40  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           76  59  82  61  /  40  40  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  53  76  56  /  70  30  10  10
HOBBS NM                   72  52  79  52  /  50  40  20  10
MARFA TX                   73  48  76  46  /  70  40  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  59  80  59  /  30  40  20  20
ODESSA TX                  76  59  80  59  /  30  40  20  20
WINK TX                    77  58  83  58  /  50  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/80








000
FXUS64 KMAF 191001
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
500 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Light showers are currently falling across parts of southeast New
Mexico and the Trans Pecos.  This activity is expected to spread
eastward through the day with thunderstorms possible.  The heaviest
rain will generally be south and west of the Pecos River, but the
precipitation is expected to reach to the Permian Basin by this
evening.  An upper level trough is currently approaching the region
and is providing upper level lift with shortwaves moving over the
area.  Higher CAPE and bulk shear values will be present across the
Davis Mountains southward to the Rio Grande this afternoon so an
isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

The upper level trough will move over the Texas panhandle into
Oklahoma on Sunday with the area of rain shifting to the east.  0 to
6 km Bulk shear values will be around 50 kts and CAPE values will be
over 1000 J/kg across the Lower Trans Pecos and southeast Permian
Basin so severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area on
Sunday.  Showers and thunderstorms will linger across the area on
Monday as shortwaves continue to move over the area on the backside
of the upper trough.  Precipitation coverage is not expected to be
as widespread on Monday with the low level moisture moving east of
the area.  Temperatures will warm up to slightly above average
values on Monday despite a northerly wind shift during the
afternoon.

The upper trough will move toward the east coast on Tuesday with
upper ridging developing over the region.  On Wednesday, an upper
trough will move toward the Northern Plains with a lee surface
trough and dryline developing across the CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible along and east of the dryline during the afternoon hours
although did not add in pops to the forecast yet.  Temperatures will
warm up to around 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday with the
presence of the surface trough.  This upper trough will move over
the Great Lakes region by the end of next week with upper ridging
once again developing over the area.  Temperatures will remain above
average through the extended forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  58  80  58  /  40  40  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              76  60  80  60  /  20  40  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                74  53  82  53  /  70  40  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  64  82  65  /  20  40  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           76  59  82  61  /  40  40  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  53  76  56  /  70  30  10  10
HOBBS NM                   72  52  79  52  /  50  40  20  10
MARFA TX                   73  48  76  46  /  70  40  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  59  80  59  /  30  40  20  20
ODESSA TX                  76  59  80  59  /  30  40  20  20
WINK TX                    77  58  83  58  /  50  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/80








000
FXUS64 KMAF 191001
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
500 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Light showers are currently falling across parts of southeast New
Mexico and the Trans Pecos.  This activity is expected to spread
eastward through the day with thunderstorms possible.  The heaviest
rain will generally be south and west of the Pecos River, but the
precipitation is expected to reach to the Permian Basin by this
evening.  An upper level trough is currently approaching the region
and is providing upper level lift with shortwaves moving over the
area.  Higher CAPE and bulk shear values will be present across the
Davis Mountains southward to the Rio Grande this afternoon so an
isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

The upper level trough will move over the Texas panhandle into
Oklahoma on Sunday with the area of rain shifting to the east.  0 to
6 km Bulk shear values will be around 50 kts and CAPE values will be
over 1000 J/kg across the Lower Trans Pecos and southeast Permian
Basin so severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area on
Sunday.  Showers and thunderstorms will linger across the area on
Monday as shortwaves continue to move over the area on the backside
of the upper trough.  Precipitation coverage is not expected to be
as widespread on Monday with the low level moisture moving east of
the area.  Temperatures will warm up to slightly above average
values on Monday despite a northerly wind shift during the
afternoon.

The upper trough will move toward the east coast on Tuesday with
upper ridging developing over the region.  On Wednesday, an upper
trough will move toward the Northern Plains with a lee surface
trough and dryline developing across the CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible along and east of the dryline during the afternoon hours
although did not add in pops to the forecast yet.  Temperatures will
warm up to around 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday with the
presence of the surface trough.  This upper trough will move over
the Great Lakes region by the end of next week with upper ridging
once again developing over the area.  Temperatures will remain above
average through the extended forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  58  80  58  /  40  40  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              76  60  80  60  /  20  40  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                74  53  82  53  /  70  40  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  64  82  65  /  20  40  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           76  59  82  61  /  40  40  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  53  76  56  /  70  30  10  10
HOBBS NM                   72  52  79  52  /  50  40  20  10
MARFA TX                   73  48  76  46  /  70  40  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  59  80  59  /  30  40  20  20
ODESSA TX                  76  59  80  59  /  30  40  20  20
WINK TX                    77  58  83  58  /  50  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/80








000
FXUS64 KMAF 191001
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
500 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Light showers are currently falling across parts of southeast New
Mexico and the Trans Pecos.  This activity is expected to spread
eastward through the day with thunderstorms possible.  The heaviest
rain will generally be south and west of the Pecos River, but the
precipitation is expected to reach to the Permian Basin by this
evening.  An upper level trough is currently approaching the region
and is providing upper level lift with shortwaves moving over the
area.  Higher CAPE and bulk shear values will be present across the
Davis Mountains southward to the Rio Grande this afternoon so an
isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

The upper level trough will move over the Texas panhandle into
Oklahoma on Sunday with the area of rain shifting to the east.  0 to
6 km Bulk shear values will be around 50 kts and CAPE values will be
over 1000 J/kg across the Lower Trans Pecos and southeast Permian
Basin so severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area on
Sunday.  Showers and thunderstorms will linger across the area on
Monday as shortwaves continue to move over the area on the backside
of the upper trough.  Precipitation coverage is not expected to be
as widespread on Monday with the low level moisture moving east of
the area.  Temperatures will warm up to slightly above average
values on Monday despite a northerly wind shift during the
afternoon.

The upper trough will move toward the east coast on Tuesday with
upper ridging developing over the region.  On Wednesday, an upper
trough will move toward the Northern Plains with a lee surface
trough and dryline developing across the CWA.  Thunderstorms will be
possible along and east of the dryline during the afternoon hours
although did not add in pops to the forecast yet.  Temperatures will
warm up to around 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday with the
presence of the surface trough.  This upper trough will move over
the Great Lakes region by the end of next week with upper ridging
once again developing over the area.  Temperatures will remain above
average through the extended forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  58  80  58  /  40  40  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              76  60  80  60  /  20  40  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                74  53  82  53  /  70  40  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  64  82  65  /  20  40  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           76  59  82  61  /  40  40  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  53  76  56  /  70  30  10  10
HOBBS NM                   72  52  79  52  /  50  40  20  10
MARFA TX                   73  48  76  46  /  70  40  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  59  80  59  /  30  40  20  20
ODESSA TX                  76  59  80  59  /  30  40  20  20
WINK TX                    77  58  83  58  /  50  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/80








000
FXUS64 KSJT 190954
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
452 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

...Increasing rain chances for this weekend...

Upper air analysis shows an upper low over southern California with
a weak ridge over central and east Texas.  A shortwave trough ahead
of the main upper low is evident on water vapor imagery moving into
far west Texas this morning.  Already seeing showers and
thunderstorms over west Texas and eastern New Mexico associated with
this shortwave.  Will see increasing cloud cover today across west
central Texas...with increasing rain chance for this
evening/overnight as the shortwave approaches the area. Can not rule
out a few strong or isolated severe storms this evening with decent
shear over the area. However...cloud cover will somewhat limit
instability. Will see afternoon highs today pretty close to
yesterday`s highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.


.LONG TERM...
(Easter Sunday through next Saturday)

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Easter Sunday, with
another round of strong to severe storms possible across southern
sections on Monday.

A short wave trough will be situated over southern Colorado and
eastern New Mexico early Easter morning and will move slowly east
across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. At the
surface, a dryline will set up across west Texas during the day
and will mix east to our western border by late afternoon. As the
short wave moves east of the area Sunday evening, a cold front will
move across the area late Sunday night and Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected across much of the area on Easter, with
another round of convection possible along the cold front across
southern sections on Monday.

The main concern on Easter will be the potential for strong to
severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Surface
heating along and east of the dryline will result in moderate
instability across western counties by afternoon, with bulk shear
between 35 and 45 KT. This would support the potential for strong to
severe storms, including supercells with the primary hazard being
large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado threat cannot be
ruled out but low level shear will be weaker which will limit the
tornado potential. Activity will linger into the evening hours with
additional convection possible along the cold front Sunday night.

On Monday, the cold front is expected to stall across southern
sections by afternoon, then move south of the area during the
evening hours. Models continue to indicate convective development
along the front by late afternoon and have added slight POP`s across
this area into Monday evening. Could be looking at another round of
strong to severe storms south of the front, where models show
moderate instability developing, along with decent shear still in
place.

Dry and warm weather is expected Tuesday as an upper level ridge
develops across the Plains. An upper level trough is progged to move
east across the Rockies on Wednesday and across the Plains on
Thursday. Models continue to show an active dryline late Wednesday
afternoon and evening as weak disturbances ahead of the main trough
move across West Texas. Added slight POP`s for Wednesday evening
this forecast cycle. Dry, warm and breezy conditions are expected on
Thursday as a dryline advances east across much of the area.
Currently going with a dry forecast into next weekend but models
show another possible trough affecting the area which may give us
another shot of rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  79  59  78  62  83 /   5  30  40  20  10
San Angelo  80  59  79  62  85 /  10  30  40  20  10
Junction  81  60  77  63  83 /  10  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/24







000
FXUS64 KLUB 190944
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
444 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WAS SLOWLY BEING REALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WELL AHEAD OF A FILLING UPPER
LOW CROSSING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT 09Z. PRECIP ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS BEING DRIVING PRIMARILY BY INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE NOW TO OUR EAST.
WATER VAPOR CLEARLY SHOWS THE MOST DYNAMIC LIFT IN THE FORM OF
HEIGHT FALLS IS STILL WEST OF THIS INITIAL REGION OF LIFT IN FAR
SWRN NM...SO WE STILL EXPECT OUR BEST PRECIP CHANCES TODAY TO BE
RELEGATED TO THE AFTN AND EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DEEPER
LIFT.

A FEATURE OF INTEREST ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HEIGHT FALLS IS A
RESPECTABLE 700MB S/W TROUGH PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTN. GIVEN THE NORTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY OF THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT S/W TROUGH...AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE PRECIP AT ALL. OPTED TO TIGHTEN
THE POP GRADIENT BECAUSE OF THIS WHILE ALSO RAISING VALUES TO HIGH
CHANCE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE FOCUSED LIFT AND DEEPER
SATURATION ARE MOST LIKELY. POPS AFTER 06Z ARE BEING KEPT ON THE
LOW SIDE AS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING 700-500MB S/W TROUGH...BUT THIS STORY DOES CHANGE BY THE
START OF THE LONG TERM WINDOW AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW
PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE CWA. FOR THE 500 J/KG OF AVERAGE MLCAPE
PROGGED THIS AFTN...MODEL WIND PROFILES POINT TO LARGELY BENIGN
CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR.

ONLY CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS WAS TO NUDGE VALUES UP OFF THE CAPROCK
WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...
EASTER SUNDAY APPEARS TO START OFF WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION AND A LULL IN PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY. AS
THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN
OPEN WAVE...A WEAK DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND START TO MOVE EAST WITH THE PASSING WAVE. MODELS ARE
GENERATING SBCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA INDICATE ONLY ABOUT HALF OF WHAT THE MODEL FIELDS
INDICATE. THERE IS ALSO A PRETTY GOOD CAP EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH
WILL INITIALLY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN SOME
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS MOSTLY THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME...SOME OF THE
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO BIG OF AN
ISSUE RIGHT NOW. TWEAKED POPS UP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
LOWERED THEM ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROF PASSAGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BRINGING
MAINLY A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HELP TO
BRING TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAY. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SOMEWHAT MOIST EVEN WITH
DAYTIME MIXING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME ELEVATED CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. INVERTED-V PROFILES WOULD
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA OR A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HOWEVER
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SO THERE COULD BE A FEW WEAK
DOWNBURSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON /IF/ ANY PRECIPITATION CAN DEVELOP.

TUESDAY REMAINS FAIRLY WARM AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. WEDNESDAY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP A DRYLINE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION RANGING FROM NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE IN THE GFS TO
ROUGHLY A SILVERTON TO TAHOKA LINE IN THE ECMWF. ALL MODELS BREAK
OUT PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS EVEN WITH HINTS OF A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE. CONTINUED
LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BUT
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

GFS ALSO HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF SWING OUT IN THE SAME
REGION. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE GFS THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OUT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONLY SIMILARITY IS THAT BOTH MODELS PUSH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY IN
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY AIRMASS THAN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH OR IF WE
REMAIN IN A DRY WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SO FEW CHANGES MADE FOR
THE LAST THREE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

JORDAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  50  75  49  77 /  50  30  20  10  10
TULIA         73  54  77  50  78 /  30  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     74  54  77  52  80 /  40  40  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     71  54  79  55  80 /  50  40  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  56  80  55  81 /  40  40  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   71  55  79  55  79 /  50  40  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    72  56  80  57  80 /  50  40  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  59  81  58  82 /  10  20  40  30  10
SPUR          76  57  79  60  84 /  20  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     79  59  81  60  85 /  10  20  40  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14






000
FXUS64 KHGX 190857
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADD MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG (SOME DENSE) ARE FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE BAY
CITY AREA TO ANGLETON. EXPECT EVERYTHING TO LIFT AND BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS MOISTURE FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING AROUND THE NORTHWEST
MEXICO AREA SPREADS THIS WAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP (SEE SPC`S
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK). ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
STATE. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AROUND MID
WEEK.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO
THE AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND LOW RAIN CHANCES
COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
LIKE IT MIGHT END UP BEING ON THE BREEZY SIDE.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY. WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK
FOR SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT KLBX AND KCXO.
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 53F AT BOTH SITES. LOOKS LIKE KCXO
WILL GET THERE NOT SURE ABOUT KLBX. THIS AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP WINDS TAME BUT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW CIRRUS
WILL START TO COVER THE AREA. VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. 23

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. A WEAK
FRONT NEARING THE WATERS TUESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY WASH OUT INLAND...
TURNING MARITIME WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WINDS...PICK SEA HEIGHTS
UP A COUPLE OF FEET BY LATE WORK WEEK. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  59  80  62  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  60  81  63  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  64  77  67  77 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KCRP 190854
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
354 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WEAK
RIDGE AXIS/CALM WIND AND NEAR SURFACE MSTR/DRY ALOFT. ANTICIPATE
THAT DENSE FOG WL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS AND MSTR (NAM DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES)
FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVR THE WRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN/TNGT THEN AREAWIDE
SUNDAY. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 BASED IN
PART ON SREF PROB.

&&

.MARINE...ANTICIPATE ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE NRN BAY WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MARGINAL MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.3" TO 1.5" RANGE AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING AN UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND DECENT
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING AT THE SURFACE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY ON BOTH THE US AND MEXICAN SIDE OF
THE RIO GRANDE...WITH STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE REAR LEFT QUADRANT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND A DRYING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A DECAYING
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. BY MID
WEEK...RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MAY SEE SCEC
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  64  79  65  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          81  59  80  62  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
LAREDO            84  67  86  66  87  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  63  83  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  65  75  65  78  /  10  10  20  20  20
COTULLA           84  64  84  63  86  /  20  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  64  82  65  83  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  65  74  66  77  /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
IB/90...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 190854
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
354 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WEAK
RIDGE AXIS/CALM WIND AND NEAR SURFACE MSTR/DRY ALOFT. ANTICIPATE
THAT DENSE FOG WL DISSIPATE BY 14Z. CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACRS THE
SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS AND MSTR (NAM DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES)
FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVR THE WRN SECTIONS THIS AFTN/TNGT THEN AREAWIDE
SUNDAY. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16 BASED IN
PART ON SREF PROB.

&&

.MARINE...ANTICIPATE ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE NRN BAY WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. MARGINAL MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.3" TO 1.5" RANGE AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING AN UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND DECENT
BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING AT THE SURFACE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT BARRIER TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY ON BOTH THE US AND MEXICAN SIDE OF
THE RIO GRANDE...WITH STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE REAR LEFT QUADRANT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND A DRYING TREND IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
EFFECTIVELY END PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EVEN WITH A DECAYING
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. BY MID
WEEK...RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MAY SEE SCEC
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY...HAVE DECIDED TO
ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  64  79  65  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          81  59  80  62  81  /  10  10  20  20  20
LAREDO            84  67  86  66  87  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  63  83  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  65  75  65  78  /  10  10  20  20  20
COTULLA           84  64  84  63  86  /  20  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  64  82  65  83  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  65  74  66  77  /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
IB/90...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KEWX 190850
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
350 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MAIN CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE
INCREASING MOIST GULF FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...AND PACIFIC MOIST AIR
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AS A RAGGED UPPER LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SMALLER VORTICITY CENTERS
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER CIRCULATION...WITH ONE TIMED EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND THE SECOND FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL NOT
IMPACT OUR AREA...BUT THE SECOND WILL AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE LOW POPS WERE ADDED FOR AN OVERNIGHT WEAK MCS OR
CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL ORIGINATE ON THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING EAST.

ANOTHER PIECE OF VORTICITY AND THE APPROACH OF A JET STREAK/S LEFT
EXIT REGION SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE AGAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OVERALL...QPF WILL BE SPOTTY AND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN INTERESTING SCENARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE LAST MAIN
VORTICITY CENTER AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS COINCIDE WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...AND THE ARRIVAL OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW ALL OF THIS COMING TOGETHER OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO
INITIATE AND ENHANCE CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THERE IS ENOUGH
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...AND OVERALL STORM MOTION COULD BE A SLOW
5-10 KTS FOR RIGHT MOVING STORMS...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY MOVE NEARLY
DUE EAST GIVEN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS. THE ST. LOUIS
UNIVERSITY CIPS WEBSITE ANALOGS SHOW WIND AND HAIL DAMAGE FOR THE
HILL COUNTRY FROM PAST SIMILAR EVENTS. AGREE WITH THE DAY 3 SPC
OUTLOOK FOR THIS THREAT AND HAVE TAKEN THE UNUSUAL STEP OF
INCLUDING IT IN THE HWO AND ZFP AT THIS RANGE AS A PRECAUTIONARY
HEADS-UP COMING OUT OF EASTER WEEKEND. THIS COULD IMPACT METRO
AUSTIN WITH SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...FAIRLY FLAT MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...SO
ONLY INCLUDED 20 POPS AT THIS RANGE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...
BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  60  78  63  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  79  57  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     79  58  79  61  84 /  -   10  20  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  59  77  62  83 /  -   10  20  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  64  81  65  87 /  20  30  30  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        78  59  77  63  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  63  82  65  86 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  58  78  61  83 /  -   10  20  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  59  79  61  82 /  -   10  20  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  61  79  63  85 /  -   10  20  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  61  81  63  86 /  -   10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26






000
FXUS64 KHGX 190825
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG (SOME DENSE) ARE FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE BAY
CITY AREA TO ANGLETON. EXPECT EVERYTHING TO LIFT AND BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AS MOISTURE FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING AROUND THE NORTHWEST
MEXICO AREA SPREADS THIS WAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP (SEE SPC`S
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK). ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
STATE. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AROUND MID
WEEK.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF THEN MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO
THE AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND LOW RAIN CHANCES
COME BACK INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS
LIKE IT MIGHT END UP BEING ON THE BREEZY SIDE.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY. WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK
FOR SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT KLBX AND KCXO.
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 53F AT BOTH SITES. LOOKS LIKE KCXO
WILL GET THERE NOT SURE ABOUT KLBX. THIS AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP WINDS TAME BUT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW CIRRUS
WILL START TO COVER THE AREA. VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. 23
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      80  59  80  62  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  60  81  63  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  64  77  67  77 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KAMA 190821
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                75  54  74  51  77 /  30  30  30  20   0
BEAVER OK                  81  57  77  53  79 /  20  30  50  50   0
BOISE CITY OK              78  51  71  50  74 /  20  20  50  20   0
BORGER TX                  79  59  76  57  80 /  30  30  40  20   0
BOYS RANCH TX              78  54  78  51  80 /  30  30  30  20   0
CANYON TX                  74  54  75  51  79 /  30  30  30  20   0
CLARENDON TX               75  57  75  55  80 /  20  30  40  20   0
DALHART TX                 76  50  73  49  77 /  20  30  40  20   0
GUYMON OK                  80  54  75  51  77 /  20  30  50  20   0
HEREFORD TX                74  53  75  49  77 /  30  30  30  10   0
LIPSCOMB TX                77  57  78  56  78 /  20  30  50  40   0
PAMPA TX                   76  56  75  53  77 /  20  30  50  20   0
SHAMROCK TX                77  57  78  56  79 /  20  30  50  40   0
WELLINGTON TX              79  58  79  56  81 /  20  20  50  30   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 190821
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
321 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A NICE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT FOLKS AROUND HERE WOULD NOT MIND FINDING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF EASTER EGGS THIS WEEKEND.

BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...HALF THE BATTLE IN GETTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IS
ALREADY WON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT IN THE MEANTIME...SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. DO THINK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT IN ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
SW AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...THINK PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS POINT...THINK ANY SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK BETTER WITH
EACH MODEL RUN.

LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST. FOR MONDAY...SKIES WILL
BEGIN CLEARING AS AN UPPER RIDGE FIRMLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT
THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SINCE THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN SO FAR NORTH
BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPPER FORCING TO THE AREA BUT THINK IT WILL BE TOO FAR
EAST SO ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SO HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW. A WARM
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

KNS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.

KNS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                75  54  74  51  77 /  30  30  30  20   0
BEAVER OK                  81  57  77  53  79 /  20  30  50  50   0
BOISE CITY OK              78  51  71  50  74 /  20  20  50  20   0
BORGER TX                  79  59  76  57  80 /  30  30  40  20   0
BOYS RANCH TX              78  54  78  51  80 /  30  30  30  20   0
CANYON TX                  74  54  75  51  79 /  30  30  30  20   0
CLARENDON TX               75  57  75  55  80 /  20  30  40  20   0
DALHART TX                 76  50  73  49  77 /  20  30  40  20   0
GUYMON OK                  80  54  75  51  77 /  20  30  50  20   0
HEREFORD TX                74  53  75  49  77 /  30  30  30  10   0
LIPSCOMB TX                77  57  78  56  78 /  20  30  50  40   0
PAMPA TX                   76  56  75  53  77 /  20  30  50  20   0
SHAMROCK TX                77  57  78  56  79 /  20  30  50  40   0
WELLINGTON TX              79  58  79  56  81 /  20  20  50  30   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KFWD 190812
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO FAR
WEST TEXAS NEAR EL PASO AT 0730Z /230 AM CDT/. LIGHTNING WAS
DETECTED OVER WEST TEXAS SOUTH OF CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WEST TEXAS TODAY.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF
NORTH TEXAS...AND CHANCES WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. STRONG LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NEW MEXICO. WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND CHANCES WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.


58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  61  78  65  80 /   5  10  30  30  40
WACO, TX              78  60  78  61  81 /   5  10  30  20  30
PARIS, TX             77  57  78  61  77 /   5   5  20  20  50
DENTON, TX            79  59  78  63  79 /   5  10  40  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          78  57  78  64  78 /   5  10  30  30  40
DALLAS, TX            79  62  78  65  79 /   5  10  30  30  40
TERRELL, TX           78  58  78  62  79 /   5   5  20  20  40
CORSICANA, TX         78  59  79  61  79 /   5   5  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            78  58  76  59  84 /   5  10  30  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78  58  78  61  82 /   5  20  40  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/58








000
FXUS64 KBRO 190808
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
308 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT...WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS WAFTING OVERHEAD FROM NEIGHBORING
MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATION STATIONS ARE PICKING UP PATCHY LIGHT FOG
WITHIN CAMERON AND HIDALGO COUNTY...HOWEVER.

TODAY...THE AXIS OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM DIRECTLY OVER THE BRO CWFA TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE MOST RECENT KBRO UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED JUST
AROUND 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...HOWEVER THAT AMOUNT SHOULD
CLIMB TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY SUNSET. STILL...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF
THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST. WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS OBSERVED ON FRIDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S...SIMILAR TEMPERATURES...IF NOT JUST A
SMIDGE HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING OVER THE NEIGHBORING MEXICAN
STATES OF COAHUILA AND NUEVO LEON WILL INITIATE CONVECTION THERE...
AND SOME OF THIS MAY SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE BRO CWFA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENSURE MILD...BUT NEAR
NORMAL...OVERNIGHT LOWS.

SUNDAY...INHERITED ISOLATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...
AND THIS WAS RETAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WITH CONTINUED MID-
LEVEL TROUGHINESS PRESENT OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. ALTHOUGH...THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LARGELY BE IN THE FORM ON STREAMER
SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING/SPEED/AND STRENGTH OF THE
NEXT 500 MB TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN OVER 1.50 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER ON TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING GENERALLY INTACT OVERHEAD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE MID 90S ACROSS THE WEST BY LATE WEEK.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION FOG AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN THAT WINDS WILL FULLY DECOUPLE AT
NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 8 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
OVER 3.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND
EXTENDED OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...PRODUCING
GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE ON SUNDAY
DUE TO BREEZY WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS
WILL INTERACT WILL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXERCISE CAUTION AND/OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
WATERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  68  78  68 /   0   0  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  66  78  68 /   0   0  20  20
HARLINGEN            81  67  81  67 /   0   0  20  20
MCALLEN              81  69  84  68 /   0   0  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      81  69  84  67 /   0  20  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  69  76  69 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM...63
FXC/MESO...CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KCRP 190544
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1244 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN.
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR DRG THE 09-13Z SAT PERIOD OVER
INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LGT WIND EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWING BY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW MID MORNING/AFTN.
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF U.S.
ROUTE 281 DRG THE 00-06Z SUNDAY PERIOD ALONG WITH ISOLD SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE AMBIENT ONSHORE FLOW SAT EVENING FOLLOWED
BY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD
GRIDS...MAINLY CLOUDS AND WINDS (GULF WINDS). THIS WAS DONE TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE LATTER FOR CLOUDS.
KEPT PATCHY FOG GOING...AND CURRENT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS STILL IN LINE SO NO CHANGE THERE. ONLY UPDATES NEEDED WERE THE
GRIDDED TEXT PRODUCTS. SEE NO NEED TO MAKE LATER PERIOD CHANGES
UNTIL NEW DATA COMES IN...LET THE MID SHIFT HANDLE THAT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FROM ALI-VCT
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS FROM CRP-ALI-VCT LATE BETWEEN 09Z-
14Z...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE MORE AFTER 14Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO GO BELOW IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THICK HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
TEMPO 2SM POSSIBLE FOR VCT...WITH TEMPO 3SM AT ALI. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  65  78  65  81  /  10  10  10  20  20
VICTORIA          82  61  80  63  81  /  10  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            86  68  86  69  87  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             84  64  81  64  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  66  76  65  78  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           86  64  82  64  86  /  20  20  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  65  80  66  83  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       75  67  77  66  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 190544
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1244 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN.
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR DRG THE 09-13Z SAT PERIOD OVER
INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LGT WIND EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWING BY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW MID MORNING/AFTN.
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF U.S.
ROUTE 281 DRG THE 00-06Z SUNDAY PERIOD ALONG WITH ISOLD SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE AMBIENT ONSHORE FLOW SAT EVENING FOLLOWED
BY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD
GRIDS...MAINLY CLOUDS AND WINDS (GULF WINDS). THIS WAS DONE TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE LATTER FOR CLOUDS.
KEPT PATCHY FOG GOING...AND CURRENT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS STILL IN LINE SO NO CHANGE THERE. ONLY UPDATES NEEDED WERE THE
GRIDDED TEXT PRODUCTS. SEE NO NEED TO MAKE LATER PERIOD CHANGES
UNTIL NEW DATA COMES IN...LET THE MID SHIFT HANDLE THAT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FROM ALI-VCT
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS FROM CRP-ALI-VCT LATE BETWEEN 09Z-
14Z...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE MORE AFTER 14Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO GO BELOW IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THICK HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
TEMPO 2SM POSSIBLE FOR VCT...WITH TEMPO 3SM AT ALI. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  65  78  65  81  /  10  10  10  20  20
VICTORIA          82  61  80  63  81  /  10  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            86  68  86  69  87  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             84  64  81  64  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  66  76  65  78  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           86  64  82  64  86  /  20  20  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  65  80  66  83  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       75  67  77  66  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 190544
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1244 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN.
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR DRG THE 09-13Z SAT PERIOD OVER
INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LGT WIND EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWING BY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW MID MORNING/AFTN.
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF U.S.
ROUTE 281 DRG THE 00-06Z SUNDAY PERIOD ALONG WITH ISOLD SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE AMBIENT ONSHORE FLOW SAT EVENING FOLLOWED
BY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD
GRIDS...MAINLY CLOUDS AND WINDS (GULF WINDS). THIS WAS DONE TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE LATTER FOR CLOUDS.
KEPT PATCHY FOG GOING...AND CURRENT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS STILL IN LINE SO NO CHANGE THERE. ONLY UPDATES NEEDED WERE THE
GRIDDED TEXT PRODUCTS. SEE NO NEED TO MAKE LATER PERIOD CHANGES
UNTIL NEW DATA COMES IN...LET THE MID SHIFT HANDLE THAT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FROM ALI-VCT
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS FROM CRP-ALI-VCT LATE BETWEEN 09Z-
14Z...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE MORE AFTER 14Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO GO BELOW IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THICK HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
TEMPO 2SM POSSIBLE FOR VCT...WITH TEMPO 3SM AT ALI. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  65  78  65  81  /  10  10  10  20  20
VICTORIA          82  61  80  63  81  /  10  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            86  68  86  69  87  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             84  64  81  64  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  66  76  65  78  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           86  64  82  64  86  /  20  20  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  65  80  66  83  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       75  67  77  66  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 190544
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1244 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN.
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR DRG THE 09-13Z SAT PERIOD OVER
INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS. LGT WIND EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWING BY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW MID MORNING/AFTN.
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF U.S.
ROUTE 281 DRG THE 00-06Z SUNDAY PERIOD ALONG WITH ISOLD SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE AMBIENT ONSHORE FLOW SAT EVENING FOLLOWED
BY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD
GRIDS...MAINLY CLOUDS AND WINDS (GULF WINDS). THIS WAS DONE TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE LATTER FOR CLOUDS.
KEPT PATCHY FOG GOING...AND CURRENT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS STILL IN LINE SO NO CHANGE THERE. ONLY UPDATES NEEDED WERE THE
GRIDDED TEXT PRODUCTS. SEE NO NEED TO MAKE LATER PERIOD CHANGES
UNTIL NEW DATA COMES IN...LET THE MID SHIFT HANDLE THAT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FROM ALI-VCT
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS FROM CRP-ALI-VCT LATE BETWEEN 09Z-
14Z...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE MORE AFTER 14Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO GO BELOW IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THICK HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
TEMPO 2SM POSSIBLE FOR VCT...WITH TEMPO 3SM AT ALI. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  65  78  65  81  /  10  10  10  20  20
VICTORIA          82  61  80  63  81  /  10  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            86  68  86  69  87  /  20  20  20  20  10
ALICE             84  64  81  64  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          76  66  76  65  78  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           86  64  82  64  86  /  20  20  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        83  65  80  66  83  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       75  67  77  66  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KBRO 190539 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY INDICATE THAT THE ANTICIPATED MVFR CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS NOW WAFTING
OVERHEAD PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE PREVIOUS SET OF
TAFS TO HAVE THE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE...VFR WILL RESUME WITH BREEZY WINDS AND
RISING CEILINGS. DIMINISHING WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH
CLOUD DECKS LOWERING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND HAS
TEMPORARILY ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR. SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. ONSET OF THE LOWER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AT OR AFTER
06Z WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS AN HOUR EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE SATURDAY.
PATCHY FOG HAS A LOW PROBABILITY TO FORM AT THE TERMINAL AIRPORTS
AND IF IT DOES IT SHOULD ONLY LOWER VSBY TO MVFR BETWEEN 10-13Z.
MVFR CIGS TO MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER 16Z SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RESUMING. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TO TURN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...COASTAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LEADING TO A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY. SATELLITE DEPICTS MULTILAYERED LOW AND MID
CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE REACHING THE
SURFACE. ALOFT...THE AREA RESIDES UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. DEEP SUBTROPICAL TAP
IS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST WITH PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN MEXICO.

COASTAL TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE NORTHERN TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FOG PRONE AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281. INHERITED LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...READINGS IN THE 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUBTROPICAL STREAM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADING THE AREA. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...AND BROAD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE CWA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE...ALBEIT SLIGHT CHANCE...THAT ONE OR TWO MAY MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE CAP WILL BE STRONG OUT WEST
OWING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MAINLY
ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...AND STARR COUNTIES. NUDGED HIGHS SATURDAY DOWN A
DEGREE HERE AND THERE BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS LOOKED GOOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL
PUSH WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FROM SUNDAY ON
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
500 MB RIDGING PUSHING OVER THE AREA FROM TUES THROUGH WED WITH A
LARGE 500 MB CLOSED LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED WITH RH VALUES DIMINISHING EVEN MORE
SOAS THE 500 MB RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO
THE NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE ANY DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATER NEXT WEEK. SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A MENTION OF SLGT
CHC POPS AS THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE WAA AND THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO CONTINUE WARMING. THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS TEMPS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY WARMER BIAS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A 50/50 MODEL BLEND
BETWEEN THE ECWMF AND GFS MODELS SETS FOR TEMPS.

RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
STABLE THROUGH DAY 7. MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 13 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY UNDER 6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION INTO TONIGHT FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO SEAS.
IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MODERATE PGF WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE LONGER RANGE CWF PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE
GULF OF MEX. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY AND GULF WINDS AND SEAS
DOWN BELOW SCA LEVELS. HOWEVER ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE POSSIBLY PUSHING
CONDITIONS UP CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KMAF 190522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming into
West Texas/SE NM ahead of an upper level trough over nrn Baja, and
will result in increasing/lowering cloud cover over the next 24
hours. Models develop a MVFR stratus deck on return flow
overnight, w/some of this making it into KMAF shortly after 12Z.
Otherwise, buffer soundings suggest a widespread cu field
developing by late morning, w/cigs 3.5-6 kft agl. Area radars show
convection already creeping into Culberson County, and this will
develop into western terminals by late morning. Cigs should remain
VFR in convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
VFR conditions across the board this evening with SE winds
prevailing. The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will
be -TSRA chances Saturday morning and afternoon. Current thinking
is for thunderstorms to develop west of the terminals early
Saturday morning and spread east throughout the day. Higher
confidence for convection to develop at CNM first then HOB a few
hours later. Not sure how early activity will develop so continued
PROB30 during the morning hours then put -TSRA in prevailing for
late morning/early afternoon at NM sites. In addition, kept
mention of PROB30 -TSRA at INK and PEQ for the afternoon but was
not confident enough to go prevailing. Confidence is too low for
MAF and FST to include any mention of thunderstorm activity attm.
Adjustments will likely be needed in later TAF cycles. Otherwise,
could see a brief period of MVFR at MAF terminal between 12-16Z
therefore introduced a TEMPO for this time frame.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances are still looking pretty decent Saturday and Saturday
night, even for the Permian Basin.  Despite another frontal boundary
moving into the region on Monday, next week is still looking hot.
Just how dry remains to be seen.

An ua trough over southern California this afternoon is progged to
translate gradually eastward the next couple of days and move over
the Texas Panhandle Sunday.  Increasing low level moisture on low
level southeasterly flow will continue tonight and Saturday as this
ua trough approaches, resulting in surface dewpoints rising into the
50s over most of southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  By late this
afternoon, a surface trough will reside near the western fringe of
the forecast area.  It appears there will be enough low level
moisture for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
heated higher terrain.  Since mid level support for convection is
lacking, think anything that develops will dissipate with the loss
of heating.  Ascent will increase later tonight ahead of a
shortwave trough, while the surface trough eases eastward into the
area.  Think we could see showers and weak thunderstorms late
tonight, especially from the Guadalupe to Davis Mountains.  The
surface trough will continue slowly eastward Saturday and will
stay near the higher terrain by Saturday afternoon.  Most models
are focusing rain chances along the surface trough as a more
substantial shortwave trough ejects eastward over the area.  Have
increased PoPs over the western half of the forecast area, then
shifted PoPs eastward over the Permian Basin Saturday night.  0 to
6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50kt, mid level lapse rates around 7 C/Km
and a modest H5 45kt jetlet look favorable for severe storms.
However, not certain instability will be as high as some models
are indicating.  For now, will only mention an isolated severe
thunderstorm or two in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for Saturday
and Saturday night.  These time frames will have to be monitored
though, since better heating and the resultant higher surface
based CAPE could lead to a severe weather event.  PWATS will rise
to 1.25 inches which will prompt inclusion of locally heavy
rainfall, particularly from the Davis Mountains, north through the
Upper Trans Pecos and into the southeast New Mexico Plains.  These
areas will also be most favorable for severe storms if the higher
instability can be realized, not to mention heavy rain.

On Sunday the ua trough will linger over the forecast area.  Have
kept a slight chance over the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially since these areas may receive little rainfall through
Saturday night.  Temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s with
some models indicating enough instability cropping up for strong
storms Sunday afternoon.  Prefer to keep the PoPs low at this time,
and leave mention of severe storms in this discussion since
precipitation through Saturday night could severely limit
instability Sunday afternoon.  A weak cold front will move south
into the area Monday.  There will not be much cooling behind this
front, but low level moisture could be shunted back into the Davis
Mountains, if not Guadalupe Mountains.  Will not include any mention
of showers and thunderstorms at this time for Monday or Monday
night, but some may need to be added if today`s model trends
continue.  Temperatures will be a little warmer Monday and Tuesday,
but will warm well above normal Wednesday as a low level thermal
ridge expands over the region.  Temperatures may be a little cooler,
but still hot, Thursday and Friday as the thermal ridge flattens due
to a trough passing over the central Rockies.  A dryline will begin
diurnal undulations over the area Wednesday, but will not include
any rain chances yet.  Much can change between now and then, and at
this time there is no definite mid level feature to support any
convection.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS64 KMAF 190522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows a fetch of subtropical moisture streaming into
West Texas/SE NM ahead of an upper level trough over nrn Baja, and
will result in increasing/lowering cloud cover over the next 24
hours. Models develop a MVFR stratus deck on return flow
overnight, w/some of this making it into KMAF shortly after 12Z.
Otherwise, buffer soundings suggest a widespread cu field
developing by late morning, w/cigs 3.5-6 kft agl. Area radars show
convection already creeping into Culberson County, and this will
develop into western terminals by late morning. Cigs should remain
VFR in convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
VFR conditions across the board this evening with SE winds
prevailing. The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will
be -TSRA chances Saturday morning and afternoon. Current thinking
is for thunderstorms to develop west of the terminals early
Saturday morning and spread east throughout the day. Higher
confidence for convection to develop at CNM first then HOB a few
hours later. Not sure how early activity will develop so continued
PROB30 during the morning hours then put -TSRA in prevailing for
late morning/early afternoon at NM sites. In addition, kept
mention of PROB30 -TSRA at INK and PEQ for the afternoon but was
not confident enough to go prevailing. Confidence is too low for
MAF and FST to include any mention of thunderstorm activity attm.
Adjustments will likely be needed in later TAF cycles. Otherwise,
could see a brief period of MVFR at MAF terminal between 12-16Z
therefore introduced a TEMPO for this time frame.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances are still looking pretty decent Saturday and Saturday
night, even for the Permian Basin.  Despite another frontal boundary
moving into the region on Monday, next week is still looking hot.
Just how dry remains to be seen.

An ua trough over southern California this afternoon is progged to
translate gradually eastward the next couple of days and move over
the Texas Panhandle Sunday.  Increasing low level moisture on low
level southeasterly flow will continue tonight and Saturday as this
ua trough approaches, resulting in surface dewpoints rising into the
50s over most of southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  By late this
afternoon, a surface trough will reside near the western fringe of
the forecast area.  It appears there will be enough low level
moisture for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
heated higher terrain.  Since mid level support for convection is
lacking, think anything that develops will dissipate with the loss
of heating.  Ascent will increase later tonight ahead of a
shortwave trough, while the surface trough eases eastward into the
area.  Think we could see showers and weak thunderstorms late
tonight, especially from the Guadalupe to Davis Mountains.  The
surface trough will continue slowly eastward Saturday and will
stay near the higher terrain by Saturday afternoon.  Most models
are focusing rain chances along the surface trough as a more
substantial shortwave trough ejects eastward over the area.  Have
increased PoPs over the western half of the forecast area, then
shifted PoPs eastward over the Permian Basin Saturday night.  0 to
6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50kt, mid level lapse rates around 7 C/Km
and a modest H5 45kt jetlet look favorable for severe storms.
However, not certain instability will be as high as some models
are indicating.  For now, will only mention an isolated severe
thunderstorm or two in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for Saturday
and Saturday night.  These time frames will have to be monitored
though, since better heating and the resultant higher surface
based CAPE could lead to a severe weather event.  PWATS will rise
to 1.25 inches which will prompt inclusion of locally heavy
rainfall, particularly from the Davis Mountains, north through the
Upper Trans Pecos and into the southeast New Mexico Plains.  These
areas will also be most favorable for severe storms if the higher
instability can be realized, not to mention heavy rain.

On Sunday the ua trough will linger over the forecast area.  Have
kept a slight chance over the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially since these areas may receive little rainfall through
Saturday night.  Temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s with
some models indicating enough instability cropping up for strong
storms Sunday afternoon.  Prefer to keep the PoPs low at this time,
and leave mention of severe storms in this discussion since
precipitation through Saturday night could severely limit
instability Sunday afternoon.  A weak cold front will move south
into the area Monday.  There will not be much cooling behind this
front, but low level moisture could be shunted back into the Davis
Mountains, if not Guadalupe Mountains.  Will not include any mention
of showers and thunderstorms at this time for Monday or Monday
night, but some may need to be added if today`s model trends
continue.  Temperatures will be a little warmer Monday and Tuesday,
but will warm well above normal Wednesday as a low level thermal
ridge expands over the region.  Temperatures may be a little cooler,
but still hot, Thursday and Friday as the thermal ridge flattens due
to a trough passing over the central Rockies.  A dryline will begin
diurnal undulations over the area Wednesday, but will not include
any rain chances yet.  Much can change between now and then, and at
this time there is no definite mid level feature to support any
convection.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS64 KLUB 190459
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1159 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY TOMORROW
MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON /AOA 16 KTS/. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF -SHRA/-TSRA INITIALLY WELL WEST OF BOTH TERMINALS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE RELATIVELY SLOWLY AND THIS REFLECTED IN COMPUTER MODEL/S
TIMING OF THE SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION...AS PRECIPITATION NEARS
KLBB AOA 20/00Z AND KCDS JUST AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE. WILL MAINTAIN A
PROB30 AT KLBB FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL AS A VCSH AT KCDS
ATTM. IF TRENDS ARE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS
NECESSARY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE SHORT TERM THRU TOMORROW
EVENING. WV CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMMA HEAD LOW OVER SO-CAL DRAWING
IN PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES OF THE
PACIFIC. THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS AND
THE NAM CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIP FROM THE SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE
THE PRECIP INTO THE FA BUT BOTH SEEM TO FAVOR OUR SW ZONES FOR THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COVERAGE
WITH SUPPLYING THE MOST LIFT AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT WILL BE DYNAMIC AS CAPE APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AND LAPSE RATES ARE ANYTHING BUT STEEP. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PREVENT MUCH IF ANY DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SHOULD
NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. FOR NOW I
HAVE KEPT POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
NOTHING AT THE MOMENT INDICATES ANY CHANGE IS NEEDED. I HAVE KEPT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP COVERAGE OVER OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH
POPS AROUND 40 SCATTERED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
WE EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SAT EVENING...BUT ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN OF THE
COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...SO HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY
BROADLY PAINATED. AS THE PRIMARY LIFT WITH THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE WHERE THE
SFC FEATURES WILL BE LOCATED AND WHERE LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND LIFT
MAY BEST MATCH UP WITH UPPER-LIFT...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME DRYING WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST...WHILE MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXPAND AND RAISE
POPS...CONCENTRATING ON THE EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SFC-BASED
CAPES COULD RUN NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE EAST...DEPENDING ON THE
IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...LIKELY SOMEWHAT BETTER IN THE
SOUTH THAT NORTH. WE THINK THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS...AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO THAT IS BRIEFLY
SEVERE. THE WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND
THERE IS A HINT THAT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME AIDED BY SOME WEAK LIFT IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WE THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SURVIVING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE/VE
KEPT POPS SILENT FOR NOW. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ADVECT MOISTURE
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE CWA ON THE LOW-LVL JET WED MORNING AND THEN
DEVELOP CONVECTION EAST OF A DRYLINE LATE WED AFTN AND EVE. WE/VE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...WHILE IT SHOULD BE VERY WARM AND DRY UP ON THE
CAPROCK. AND...IF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE LATCHING ON TO
SOMETHING...A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WEST BY
NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A GOOD SETUP FOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  74  49  75  49 /   0  30  40  20  10
TULIA         51  74  53  76  50 /   0  20  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     52  74  53  77  52 /   0  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     53  74  51  78  52 /   0  30  40  20  10
LUBBOCK       53  76  55  79  54 /   0  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   55  73  52  79  53 /  10  40  40  20  10
BROWNFIELD    54  73  52  79  54 /  10  30  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     52  78  58  78  55 /   0  10  20  40  30
SPUR          53  77  55  81  58 /   0  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     55  77  58  81  60 /   0  10  30  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KEWX 190454
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1154 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS ABUNDANT HIGH
CLOUDS. BY AROUND 09Z...A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND LOW
MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME POSSIBLE. BY DAYBREAK A FEW AREAS COULD
SEE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. TAFS ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE DUE TO THE
BROADER LOW LEVEL DRY PATTERN AND THE CLOUD COVER ALOFT. VFR
SKIES SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS SOONER...AS GULF
MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS SLUGGISH. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MORE
CONSISTENT LOW CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM DEEPER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEADY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST APPROACHES TEXAS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND EXPAND TO MUCH OF THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
QPF AS WELL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES INTO EAST
TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL MID-WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK.
MODELS AREN`T QUITE SURE HOW FAR SOUTHWARD TO SEND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT WE WILL BE TOO
FAR SOUTH AND WILL GET DRY-SLOTTED INSTEAD.

THE FLAT PATTERN ALOFT AND SLY FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL LEAD TO A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE MID 80S/EAST TO LOW 90S/WEST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  80  60  80  63 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  80  57  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  81  59  80  61 /   0  -   20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  78  60  78  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  80  64  82  66 /  -   20  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  78  59  79  64 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  83  63  83  65 /   0  10  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        55  80  58  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  80  58  79  61 /  -    0  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  81  61  81  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  83  61  82  64 /   0  -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05








000
FXUS64 KSJT 190449
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1149 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Models this cycle continue to develop MVFR ceilings across most of
West Central Texas later tonight. My only concern is the higher
clouds may delay this development. However, my confidence isn`t high
enough to deviate from timing we had in the previous terminals.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect MVFR conditions to develop after 10z at all TAF sites
except KABI. Model guidance does hint at the possibility of MVFR
conditions making progress into the KABI terminal. However,
confidence in this occurring was not high enough to include in the
TAFs at time time. Look for VFR conditions to return to all
terminals after 17z.

Doll

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Overcast low clouds earlier today have lifted and become mostly
broken in coverage this afternoon. Cloud bases have lifted from just
a few hundred feet in some areas to mostly above two thousand feet
this afternoon.  That trend will continue into the early evening
hours.  There will in an increase in high cirrus clouds moving in
from the west near sunset. Low clouds are expect to form again by
early Saturday morning from San Angelo southward including Junction,
Sonora and Brady. Five to 10 mph east winds today are likely to
become light and variable in low lying areas overnight.  Winds will
slowly shift around and blow from the southeast and then from the
south by midday Saturday increasing to 12 to 18 mph by Saturday
afternoon. This wind increase is in association with an upper level
low pressure circulation currently near San Diego California that is
moving east quickly.  Despite this upper level circulation nearing
the area, rain changes remain low through Saturday night despite
increases in cloudiness and relative humidity.

Lyons

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)

The main highlights in the long term forecast are the potential for
showers and thunderstorms this weekend, followed by above normal
temperatures for much of next week. A potent upper level trough
currently over California, will move west and approach West Central
Texas this weekend. A disturbance is forecast to move across West
Texas Saturday afternoon/evening. High resolution models in addition
to the most of the operational models, develop convection across
much of the Permian Basin down to the Trans Pecos region, then
slowly move it west through the early evening hours. Most of the
models slowly weaken the convection as it moves into our western
counties, before dissipating it by mid evening. Although this is
very plausible, if the convection can get a cold pool going, I would
not be surprised to see it make more progress into our area. For
now, I have kept PoPs in the low end chance category, given the
uncertainty, and will continue to monitor. Modest instability and
0-6 KM Bulk Shear values of 35 to 45 knots, could yield a few strong
to severe thunderstorms.

On Sunday, the base of the aforementioned upper level trough will
swing across the Southern Plains, with a dryline located across West
Texas. West Central Texas will remain in the moist sector, with
decent instability developing during the afternoon/early evening
hours. I expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop, with the favored region being the Big Country. Decent
instability will be in place, and a few strong to severe storms will
be possible. At this time, I expect the main threats to be large
hail and strong gusty winds. Any convection that does develop will
linger into the evening hours, with most moving east of the area
after midnight.

A weak cold front will move into the Big Country Monday morning,
then slow down as it approached the the Interstate 10 corridor.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoon/evening along the front, mainly south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. For now, I have kept PoPs below 15
percent, but these may need to be raised on future shifts. The rest
of the week will be characterized by above normal temperatures, with
highs mainly in the 90s and lows generally in the 60s. Isolated
dryline convection will be possible late Wednesday and Thursday, but
given the uncertainty this far out, I have opted to leave out any
mention from the grids at this time.

Daniels

FIRE WEATHER...
A combination of fairly moist air and light winds will keep the fire
weather damage low through Saturday morning. Fire weather
conditions will become elevated Saturday afternoon as a consequence
strengthening south and southeast winds of 12 to 18 knots with
higher gusts combined with existing very dry vegetation.

Lyons

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  58  77  59  80 /  10   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  78  58  79  58  82 /  30   5  10  30  30
Junction  79  60  78  58  80 /  20   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Huber





000
FXUS64 KFWD 190449 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1149 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
HAVE DECIDED TO ADD 5SM BR TO THE KAFW AND KACT TAFS 12-14Z DUE
TO THEIR MORE RURAL LOCATION AND TENDENCIES FOR COOLER DAYBREAK
TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING SMALLER T/DP SPREADS.

OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND DISCUSSION REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH VFR SKIES OF SCT-BKN250...AND VFR CIGS FOR THE
OTHER TAF SITES...AND LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. 75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE AND SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST
MAY DEVELOP. THE VISIBILITY WILL NOT BECOME TOO RESTRICTED
SATURDAY MORNING SINCE ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD BE VERY SHALLOW.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NORTHERN MEXICO. LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER FAR WEST TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN CAPPED AS WARM AIR FROM THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU STREAMS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
AND THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT COUPLED WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS A
PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON
THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE AND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY BASED
ON THE AGREEMENT OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM ON SUNDAY
WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS THERE.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON TUESDAY
AND RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND NO RAIN CHANCES. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT NORTH TEXAS.
HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE
DRY LINE ON THURSDAY MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AND ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTH TEXAS. FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY AND BRING
LITTLE MORE THAN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.    79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  56  78  61  78  63 /   5   5  20  30  30
WACO, TX              54  77  60  78  62 /   5   5  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             52  77  57  76  60 /   5   5  10  30  40
DENTON, TX            53  78  59  79  62 /   5   5  20  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          53  75  57  77  61 /   5   5  20  30  40
DALLAS, TX            57  78  62  78  64 /   5   5  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           53  77  58  79  62 /   5   5  10  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         56  77  59  78  62 /   5   5  10  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            54  78  58  77  62 /   5   5  20  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  77  58  76  60 /   5   5  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /75






000
FXUS64 KHGX 190441
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY. WE STILL LOOK ON TRACK
FOR SOME POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT KLBX AND KCXO.
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 53F AT BOTH SITES. LOOKS LIKE KCXO
WILL GET THERE NOT SURE ABOUT KLBX. THIS AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP WINDS TAME BUT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW CIRRUS
WILL START TO COVER THE AREA. VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE THIS PACKAGE WITH A FEW TWEEKS TO SKY COVER
AND A FEW OTHER FIELDS. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND POSITION OF
UPPER RIDGE...EXPECT AREAS OF HIGH CLOUD TO CONTINE TO STEAM
TOWARD THE AREA...BUT LIKELY NOTHING MUCH AS LONG AS WE ARE EAST
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THEN. TEMPS AND
WINDS LOOK ON TARGET. ALSO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. 46

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THIS
MORNING THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AS WINDS
DECOUPLE. A CIRRUS DECK IS ALSO FORECASTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE CIRRUS
SHOULD HELP VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT AT RURAL
SITES SUCH AS KCXO AND KLBX. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH LIGHT CAA/UPPER RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE A BIT LONGER...LOOKS
LIKE DRY/MILD WX TO PERSIST ACROSS SE TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF MOISTURE UNTIL LATE SUN...BUT MODELS KEEP-
ING WITH THE DRIER TREND AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF TAKES A MORE NLY
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUN THROUGH TUES. THIS SYS-
TEM PROGGED TO BRING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA TUE AS AN-
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THIS REINFORCING AIRMASS
TO BRING DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY AROUND MID WEEK.

DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL HELP THE RETURN FLOW RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HERALD THE RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND WARMER TEMPS) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. NOT
TERRIBLY KEEN REGARDING THE RETURN OF LOW POPS UNTIL NEXT FRI OR
SO (AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND) WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE UPPER
(SUBTROPICAL) JET. 41

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK. LOW
SEAS WILL PERSIST. WEAK FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SE TX ON TUE
BUT LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER SE WINDS/SEAS DURING THE
2ND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.  47


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  57  80  59  80 /  10   0  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  58  80  60  81 /  10   0  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  64  76  64  77 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KAMA 190401 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1101 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO ALL
SITES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35
KTS. CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT
OF TAFS FOR NOW. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE AT KDHT AFTER 21Z. AT THE
TAIL END OF THE PERIOD RA OR TS MAY IMPACT KAMA AND KGUY.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL EASE A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL SITES. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY SITE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW JUST MOVING ON SHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE SATELLITE AND IS PUMPING
A LOT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE ONCE THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO THE UPPER AIR
GRID ON WHAT THAT DATA WILL DO TO THE MODELS. THE MODELS SEEM A
LITTLE DRY OVER OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THEN IT WILL OPEN
UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. A
COUPLE OF MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANY NEW SYSTEMS MISS US
TO THE NORTH. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/11






000
FXUS64 KAMA 190401 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1101 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO ALL
SITES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35
KTS. CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT
OF TAFS FOR NOW. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE AT KDHT AFTER 21Z. AT THE
TAIL END OF THE PERIOD RA OR TS MAY IMPACT KAMA AND KGUY.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL EASE A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL SITES. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY SITE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW JUST MOVING ON SHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE SATELLITE AND IS PUMPING
A LOT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE ONCE THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO THE UPPER AIR
GRID ON WHAT THAT DATA WILL DO TO THE MODELS. THE MODELS SEEM A
LITTLE DRY OVER OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THEN IT WILL OPEN
UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. A
COUPLE OF MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANY NEW SYSTEMS MISS US
TO THE NORTH. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/11





000
FXUS64 KHGX 190220
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
920 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE THIS PACKAGE WITH A FEW TWEEKS TO SKY COVER
AND A FEW OTHER FIELDS. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND POSITION OF
UPPER RIDGE...EXPECT AREAS OF HIGH CLOUD TO CONTINE TO STEAM
TOWARD THE AREA...BUT LIKELY NOTHING MUCH AS LONG AS WE ARE EAST
OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THEN. TEMPS AND
WINDS LOOK ON TARGET. ALSO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THIS
MORNING THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AS WINDS
DECOUPLE. A CIRRUS DECK IS ALSO FORECASTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE CIRRUS
SHOULD HELP VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT AT RURAL
SITES SUCH AS KCXO AND KLBX. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH LIGHT CAA/UPPER RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE A BIT LONGER...LOOKS
LIKE DRY/MILD WX TO PERSIST ACROSS SE TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF MOISTURE UNTIL LATE SUN...BUT MODELS KEEP-
ING WITH THE DRIER TREND AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF TAKES A MORE NLY
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUN THROUGH TUES. THIS SYS-
TEM PROGGED TO BRING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA TUE AS AN-
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THIS REINFORCING AIRMASS
TO BRING DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY AROUND MID WEEK.

DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL HELP THE RETURN FLOW RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HERALD THE RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND WARMER TEMPS) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. NOT
TERRIBLY KEEN REGARDING THE RETURN OF LOW POPS UNTIL NEXT FRI OR
SO (AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND) WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE UPPER
(SUBTROPICAL) JET. 41

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK. LOW
SEAS WILL PERSIST. WEAK FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SE TX ON TUE
BUT LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER SE WINDS/SEAS DURING THE
2ND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.  47


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  80  59  80  63 /   0  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  80  60  81  64 /   0  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  76  64  77  68 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KCRP 190210 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
910 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD
GRIDS...MAINLY CLOUDS AND WINDS (GULF WINDS). THIS WAS DONE TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE LATTER FOR CLOUDS.
KEPT PATCHY FOG GOING...AND CURRENT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS STILL IN LINE SO NO CHANGE THERE. ONLY UPDATES NEEDED WERE THE
GRIDDED TEXT PRODUCTS. SEE NO NEED TO MAKE LATER PERIOD CHANGES
UNTIL NEW DATA COMES IN...LET THE MID SHIFT HANDLE THAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FROM ALI-VCT
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS FROM CRP-ALI-VCT LATE BETWEEN 09Z-
14Z...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE MORE AFTER 14Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO GO BELOW IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THICK HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
TEMPO 2SM POSSIBLE FOR VCT...WITH TEMPO 3SM AT ALI. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  81  65  78  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          58  82  61  80  63  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  68  86  69  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             60  84  64  81  64  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          63  76  66  76  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           60  86  64  82  64  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  80  66  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  77  66  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 190210 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
910 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD
GRIDS...MAINLY CLOUDS AND WINDS (GULF WINDS). THIS WAS DONE TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE LATTER FOR CLOUDS.
KEPT PATCHY FOG GOING...AND CURRENT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS STILL IN LINE SO NO CHANGE THERE. ONLY UPDATES NEEDED WERE THE
GRIDDED TEXT PRODUCTS. SEE NO NEED TO MAKE LATER PERIOD CHANGES
UNTIL NEW DATA COMES IN...LET THE MID SHIFT HANDLE THAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FROM ALI-VCT
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS FROM CRP-ALI-VCT LATE BETWEEN 09Z-
14Z...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE MORE AFTER 14Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO GO BELOW IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THICK HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
TEMPO 2SM POSSIBLE FOR VCT...WITH TEMPO 3SM AT ALI. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  81  65  78  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          58  82  61  80  63  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  68  86  69  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             60  84  64  81  64  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          63  76  66  76  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           60  86  64  82  64  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  80  66  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  77  66  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 182357 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FROM ALI-VCT
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS FROM CRP-ALI-VCT LATE BETWEEN 09Z-
14Z...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE MORE AFTER 14Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO GO BELOW IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THICK HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
TEMPO 2SM POSSIBLE FOR VCT...WITH TEMPO 3SM AT ALI. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  81  65  78  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          58  82  61  80  63  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  68  86  69  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             60  84  64  81  64  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          63  76  66  76  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           60  86  64  82  64  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  80  66  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  77  66  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 182357 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FROM ALI-VCT
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS FROM CRP-ALI-VCT LATE BETWEEN 09Z-
14Z...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE MORE AFTER 14Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO GO BELOW IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THICK HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
TEMPO 2SM POSSIBLE FOR VCT...WITH TEMPO 3SM AT ALI. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  81  65  78  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          58  82  61  80  63  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  68  86  69  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             60  84  64  81  64  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          63  76  66  76  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           60  86  64  82  64  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  80  66  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  77  66  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 182357 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FROM ALI-VCT
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS FROM CRP-ALI-VCT LATE BETWEEN 09Z-
14Z...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE MORE AFTER 14Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO GO BELOW IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THICK HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
TEMPO 2SM POSSIBLE FOR VCT...WITH TEMPO 3SM AT ALI. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  81  65  78  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          58  82  61  80  63  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  68  86  69  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             60  84  64  81  64  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          63  76  66  76  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           60  86  64  82  64  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  80  66  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  77  66  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 182357 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR FROM ALI-VCT
TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
EVENING. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INLAND OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS FROM CRP-ALI-VCT LATE BETWEEN 09Z-
14Z...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE MORE AFTER 14Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG FROM ALI-VCT SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT TO GO BELOW IFR AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THICK HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT HAVE AT LEAST
TEMPO 2SM POSSIBLE FOR VCT...WITH TEMPO 3SM AT ALI. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING 10-15KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  81  65  78  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          58  82  61  80  63  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  68  86  69  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             60  84  64  81  64  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          63  76  66  76  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           60  86  64  82  64  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  80  66  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  77  66  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KEWX 182354 CCA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
654 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE/
VFR SKIES SHOULD LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BENEATH ABUNDANT HIGH
CLOUDS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SATURDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP...BUT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MAKE IT HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING AND EXTENT. A LAYER OF
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY DAYBREAK AND BE MAINLY MVFR IN THE
LATE MORNING. VFR SKIES SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS
SOONER...AS GULF MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS SLUGGISH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST APPROACHES TEXAS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND EXPAND TO MUCH OF THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
QPF AS WELL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES INTO EAST
TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL MID-WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK.
MODELS AREN`T QUITE SURE HOW FAR SOUTHWARD TO SEND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT WE WILL BE TOO
FAR SOUTH AND WILL GET DRY-SLOTTED INSTEAD.

THE FLAT PATTERN ALOFT AND SLY FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL LEAD TO A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE MID 80S/EAST TO LOW 90S/WEST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  80  60  80  63 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  80  57  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  81  59  80  61 /   0  -   20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  78  60  78  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  80  64  82  66 /  -   20  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  78  59  79  64 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  83  63  83  65 /   0  10  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        55  80  58  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  80  58  79  61 /  -    0  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  81  61  81  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  83  61  82  64 /   0  -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33








000
FXUS64 KEWX 182353
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
653 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE/
VFR SKIES SHOULD LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BENEATH ABUNDANT HIGH
CLOUDS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP...BUT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MAKE IT HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING AND EXTENT. A LAYER OF
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY DAYBREAK AND BE MAINLY MVFR IN THE
LATE MORNING. VFR SKIES SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS
SOONER...AS GULF MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS SLUGGISH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST APPROACHES TEXAS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND EXPAND TO MUCH OF THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
QPF AS WELL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES INTO EAST
TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL MID-WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK.
MODELS AREN`T QUITE SURE HOW FAR SOUTHWARD TO SEND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT WE WILL BE TOO
FAR SOUTH AND WILL GET DRY-SLOTTED INSTEAD.

THE FLAT PATTERN ALOFT AND SLY FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL LEAD TO A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE MID 80S/EAST TO LOW 90S/WEST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  80  60  80  63 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  80  57  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  81  59  80  61 /   0  -   20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  78  60  78  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  80  64  82  66 /  -   20  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  78  59  79  64 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  83  63  83  65 /   0  10  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        55  80  58  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  80  58  79  61 /  -    0  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  81  61  81  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  83  61  82  64 /   0  -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KMAF 182338
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
638 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
VFR conditions across the board this evening with SE winds
prevailing. The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will
be -TSRA chances Saturday morning and afternoon. Current thinking
is for thunderstorms to develop west of the terminals early
Saturday morning and spread east throughout the day. Higher
confidence for convection to develop at CNM first then HOB a few
hours later. Not sure how early activity will develop so continued
PROB30 during the morning hours then put -TSRA in prevailing for
late morning/early afternoon at NM sites. In addition, kept
mention of PROB30 -TSRA at INK and PEQ for the afternoon but was
not confident enough to go prevailing. Confidence is too low for
MAF and FST to include any mention of thunderstorm activity attm.
Adjustments will likely be needed in later TAF cycles. Otherwise,
could see a brief period of MVFR at MAF terminal between 12-16Z
therefore introduced a TEMPO for this time frame.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances are still looking pretty decent Saturday and Saturday
night, even for the Permian Basin.  Despite another frontal boundary
moving into the region on Monday, next week is still looking hot.
Just how dry remains to be seen.

An ua trough over southern California this afternoon is progged to
translate gradually eastward the next couple of days and move over
the Texas Panhandle Sunday.  Increasing low level moisture on low
level southeasterly flow will continue tonight and Saturday as this
ua trough approaches, resulting in surface dewpoints rising into the
50s over most of southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  By late this
afternoon, a surface trough will reside near the western fringe of
the forecast area.  It appears there will be enough low level
moisture for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
heated higher terrain.  Since mid level support for convection is
lacking, think anything that develops will dissipate with the loss
of heating.  Ascent will increase later tonight ahead of a
shortwave trough, while the surface trough eases eastward into the
area.  Think we could see showers and weak thunderstorms late
tonight, especially from the Guadalupe to Davis Mountains.  The
surface trough will continue slowly eastward Saturday and will
stay near the higher terrain by Saturday afternoon.  Most models
are focusing rain chances along the surface trough as a more
substantial shortwave trough ejects eastward over the area.  Have
increased PoPs over the western half of the forecast area, then
shifted PoPs eastward over the Permian Basin Saturday night.  0 to
6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50kt, mid level lapse rates around 7 C/Km
and a modest H5 45kt jetlet look favorable for severe storms.
However, not certain instability will be as high as some models
are indicating.  For now, will only mention an isolated severe
thunderstorm or two in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for Saturday
and Saturday night.  These time frames will have to be monitored
though, since better heating and the resultant higher surface
based CAPE could lead to a severe weather event.  PWATS will rise
to 1.25 inches which will prompt inclusion of locally heavy
rainfall, particularly from the Davis Mountains, north through the
Upper Trans Pecos and into the southeast New Mexico Plains.  These
areas will also be most favorable for severe storms if the higher
instability can be realized, not to mention heavy rain.

On Sunday the ua trough will linger over the forecast area.  Have
kept a slight chance over the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially since these areas may receive little rainfall through
Saturday night.  Temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s with
some models indicating enough instability cropping up for strong
storms Sunday afternoon.  Prefer to keep the PoPs low at this time,
and leave mention of severe storms in this discussion since
precipitation through Saturday night could severely limit
instability Sunday afternoon.  A weak cold front will move south
into the area Monday.  There will not be much cooling behind this
front, but low level moisture could be shunted back into the Davis
Mountains, if not Guadalupe Mountains.  Will not include any mention
of showers and thunderstorms at this time for Monday or Monday
night, but some may need to be added if today`s model trends
continue.  Temperatures will be a little warmer Monday and Tuesday,
but will warm well above normal Wednesday as a low level thermal
ridge expands over the region.  Temperatures may be a little cooler,
but still hot, Thursday and Friday as the thermal ridge flattens due
to a trough passing over the central Rockies.  A dryline will begin
diurnal undulations over the area Wednesday, but will not include
any rain chances yet.  Much can change between now and then, and at
this time there is no definite mid level feature to support any
convection.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KMAF 182338
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
638 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
VFR conditions across the board this evening with SE winds
prevailing. The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours will
be -TSRA chances Saturday morning and afternoon. Current thinking
is for thunderstorms to develop west of the terminals early
Saturday morning and spread east throughout the day. Higher
confidence for convection to develop at CNM first then HOB a few
hours later. Not sure how early activity will develop so continued
PROB30 during the morning hours then put -TSRA in prevailing for
late morning/early afternoon at NM sites. In addition, kept
mention of PROB30 -TSRA at INK and PEQ for the afternoon but was
not confident enough to go prevailing. Confidence is too low for
MAF and FST to include any mention of thunderstorm activity attm.
Adjustments will likely be needed in later TAF cycles. Otherwise,
could see a brief period of MVFR at MAF terminal between 12-16Z
therefore introduced a TEMPO for this time frame.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances are still looking pretty decent Saturday and Saturday
night, even for the Permian Basin.  Despite another frontal boundary
moving into the region on Monday, next week is still looking hot.
Just how dry remains to be seen.

An ua trough over southern California this afternoon is progged to
translate gradually eastward the next couple of days and move over
the Texas Panhandle Sunday.  Increasing low level moisture on low
level southeasterly flow will continue tonight and Saturday as this
ua trough approaches, resulting in surface dewpoints rising into the
50s over most of southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  By late this
afternoon, a surface trough will reside near the western fringe of
the forecast area.  It appears there will be enough low level
moisture for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
heated higher terrain.  Since mid level support for convection is
lacking, think anything that develops will dissipate with the loss
of heating.  Ascent will increase later tonight ahead of a
shortwave trough, while the surface trough eases eastward into the
area.  Think we could see showers and weak thunderstorms late
tonight, especially from the Guadalupe to Davis Mountains.  The
surface trough will continue slowly eastward Saturday and will
stay near the higher terrain by Saturday afternoon.  Most models
are focusing rain chances along the surface trough as a more
substantial shortwave trough ejects eastward over the area.  Have
increased PoPs over the western half of the forecast area, then
shifted PoPs eastward over the Permian Basin Saturday night.  0 to
6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50kt, mid level lapse rates around 7 C/Km
and a modest H5 45kt jetlet look favorable for severe storms.
However, not certain instability will be as high as some models
are indicating.  For now, will only mention an isolated severe
thunderstorm or two in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for Saturday
and Saturday night.  These time frames will have to be monitored
though, since better heating and the resultant higher surface
based CAPE could lead to a severe weather event.  PWATS will rise
to 1.25 inches which will prompt inclusion of locally heavy
rainfall, particularly from the Davis Mountains, north through the
Upper Trans Pecos and into the southeast New Mexico Plains.  These
areas will also be most favorable for severe storms if the higher
instability can be realized, not to mention heavy rain.

On Sunday the ua trough will linger over the forecast area.  Have
kept a slight chance over the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially since these areas may receive little rainfall through
Saturday night.  Temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s with
some models indicating enough instability cropping up for strong
storms Sunday afternoon.  Prefer to keep the PoPs low at this time,
and leave mention of severe storms in this discussion since
precipitation through Saturday night could severely limit
instability Sunday afternoon.  A weak cold front will move south
into the area Monday.  There will not be much cooling behind this
front, but low level moisture could be shunted back into the Davis
Mountains, if not Guadalupe Mountains.  Will not include any mention
of showers and thunderstorms at this time for Monday or Monday
night, but some may need to be added if today`s model trends
continue.  Temperatures will be a little warmer Monday and Tuesday,
but will warm well above normal Wednesday as a low level thermal
ridge expands over the region.  Temperatures may be a little cooler,
but still hot, Thursday and Friday as the thermal ridge flattens due
to a trough passing over the central Rockies.  A dryline will begin
diurnal undulations over the area Wednesday, but will not include
any rain chances yet.  Much can change between now and then, and at
this time there is no definite mid level feature to support any
convection.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27





000
FXUS64 KBRO 182333 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
633 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND HAS
TEMPORARILY ALLOWED FOR MVFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR. SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT. ONSET OF THE LOWER CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AT OR AFTER
06Z WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS AN HOUR EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE SATURDAY.
PATCHY FOG HAS A LOW PROBABILITY TO FORM AT THE TERMINAL AIRPORTS
AND IF IT DOES IT SHOULD ONLY LOWER VSBY TO MVFR BETWEEN 10-13Z.
MVFR CIGS TO MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER 16Z SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RESUMING. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TO TURN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...COASTAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LEADING TO A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY. SATELLITE DEPICTS MULTILAYERED LOW AND MID
CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE REACHING THE
SURFACE. ALOFT...THE AREA RESIDES UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. DEEP SUBTROPICAL TAP
IS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST WITH PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN MEXICO.

COASTAL TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE NORTHERN TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FOG PRONE AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281. INHERITED LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...READINGS IN THE 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUBTROPICAL STREAM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADING THE AREA. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...AND BROAD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE CWA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE...ALBEIT SLIGHT CHANCE...THAT ONE OR TWO MAY MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE CAP WILL BE STRONG OUT WEST
OWING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MAINLY
ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...AND STARR COUNTIES. NUDGED HIGHS SATURDAY DOWN A
DEGREE HERE AND THERE BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS LOOKED GOOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL
PUSH WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FROM SUNDAY ON
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
500 MB RIDGING PUSHING OVER THE AREA FROM TUES THROUGH WED WITH A
LARGE 500 MB CLOSED LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED WITH RH VALUES DIMINISHING EVEN MORE
SOAS THE 500 MB RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO
THE NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE ANY DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATER NEXT WEEK. SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A MENTION OF SLGT
CHC POPS AS THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE WAA AND THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO CONTINUE WARMING. THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS TEMPS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY WARMER BIAS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A 50/50 MODEL BLEND
BETWEEN THE ECWMF AND GFS MODELS SETS FOR TEMPS.

RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
STABLE THROUGH DAY 7. MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 13 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY UNDER 6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION INTO TONIGHT FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO SEAS.
IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MODERATE PGF WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE LONGER RANGE CWF PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE
GULF OF MEX. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY AND GULF WINDS AND SEAS
DOWN BELOW SCA LEVELS. HOWEVER ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE POSSIBLY PUSHING
CONDITIONS UP CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/68







000
FXUS64 KAMA 182331 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL EASE A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL SITES. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY SITE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW JUST MOVING ON SHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE SATELLITE AND IS PUMPING
A LOT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE ONCE THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO THE UPPER AIR
GRID ON WHAT THAT DATA WILL DO TO THE MODELS. THE MODELS SEEM A
LITTLE DRY OVER OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THEN IT WILL OPEN
UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. A
COUPLE OF MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANY NEW SYSTEMS MISS US
TO THE NORTH. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 182331 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL EASE A LITTLE AFTER
SUNSET...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT FOR ALL SITES. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY SITE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW JUST MOVING ON SHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE SATELLITE AND IS PUMPING
A LOT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE ONCE THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO THE UPPER AIR
GRID ON WHAT THAT DATA WILL DO TO THE MODELS. THE MODELS SEEM A
LITTLE DRY OVER OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THEN IT WILL OPEN
UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. A
COUPLE OF MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANY NEW SYSTEMS MISS US
TO THE NORTH. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/11






000
FXUS64 KFWD 182325 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ADVANCES TO THE AZ/NM
BORDER BY 20/00Z...IT WILL PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ALIGNED
NEAR 100W...EASTWARD AND PERMIT A LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED.

AT THE SURFACE...AREA TERMINALS WILL BE IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO THE WEST. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

SOME RURAL TERMINALS /KACT...KAFW/ MIGHT SEE 5-7SM HAZE AROUND SUNRISE
(12-14Z) DUE TO SMALL T/DP DIFFERENCES. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS
TAF RELEASE AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

DFW EXTENDED WILL LIKELY INCLUDE SOME MENTION OF ISOLD-SCTD
SHRA/TSRA AFTER 20/12Z (SUNDAY). 75

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE AND SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST
MAY DEVELOP. THE VISIBILITY WILL NOT BECOME TOO RESTRICTED
SATURDAY MORNING SINCE ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD BE VERY SHALLOW.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NORTHERN MEXICO. LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER FAR WEST TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN CAPPED AS WARM AIR FROM THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU STREAMS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
AND THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT COUPLED WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS A
PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON
THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE AND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY BASED
ON THE AGREEMENT OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM ON SUNDAY
WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS THERE.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON TUESDAY
AND RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND NO RAIN CHANCES. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT NORTH TEXAS.
HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE
DRY LINE ON THURSDAY MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AND ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTH TEXAS. FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY AND BRING
LITTLE MORE THAN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  56  78  61  78  63 /   5   5  20  30  30
WACO, TX              54  77  60  78  62 /   5   5  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             52  77  57  76  60 /   5   5  10  30  40
DENTON, TX            53  78  59  79  62 /   5   5  20  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          53  75  57  77  61 /   5   5  20  30  40
DALLAS, TX            57  78  62  78  64 /   5   5  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           53  77  58  79  62 /   5   5  10  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         56  77  59  78  62 /   5   5  10  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            54  78  58  77  62 /   5   5  20  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  77  58  76  60 /   5   5  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

75/






000
FXUS64 KLUB 182322
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DECLINE A BIT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CHANCES
FOR -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION INITIALLY DEVELOPING WEST OF
KLBB...BUT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB FIRST...AND
THUS A PROB30 MENTION HAS BEEN ADDED. FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...A VCSH
HAS BEEN INSERTED AT KCDS AS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
SAID TERMINAL BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE SHORT TERM THRU TOMORROW
EVENING. WV CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMMA HEAD LOW OVER SO-CAL DRAWING
IN PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES OF THE
PACIFIC. THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS AND
THE NAM CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIP FROM THE SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE
THE PRECIP INTO THE FA BUT BOTH SEEM TO FAVOR OUR SW ZONES FOR THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COVERAGE
WITH SUPPLYING THE MOST LIFT AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT WILL BE DYNAMIC AS CAPE APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AND LAPSE RATES ARE ANYTHING BUT STEEP. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PREVENT MUCH IF ANY DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SHOULD
NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. FOR NOW I
HAVE KEPT POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
NOTHING AT THE MOMENT INDICATES ANY CHANGE IS NEEDED. I HAVE KEPT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP COVERAGE OVER OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH
POPS AROUND 40 SCATTERED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
WE EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SAT EVENING...BUT ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN OF THE
COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...SO HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY
BROADLY PAINATED. AS THE PRIMARY LIFT WITH THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE WHERE THE
SFC FEATURES WILL BE LOCATED AND WHERE LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND LIFT
MAY BEST MATCH UP WITH UPPER-LIFT...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME DRYING WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST...WHILE MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXPAND AND RAISE
POPS...CONCENTRATING ON THE EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SFC-BASED
CAPES COULD RUN NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE EAST...DEPENDING ON THE
IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...LIKELY SOMEWHAT BETTER IN THE
SOUTH THAT NORTH. WE THINK THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS...AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO THAT IS BRIEFLY
SEVERE. THE WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND
THERE IS A HINT THAT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME AIDED BY SOME WEAK LIFT IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WE THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SURVIVING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE/VE
KEPT POPS SILENT FOR NOW. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ADVECT MOISTURE
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE CWA ON THE LOW-LVL JET WED MORNING AND THEN
DEVELOP CONVECTION EAST OF A DRYLINE LATE WED AFTN AND EVE. WE/VE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...WHILE IT SHOULD BE VERY WARM AND DRY UP ON THE
CAPROCK. AND...IF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE LATCHING ON TO
SOMETHING...A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WEST BY
NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A GOOD SETUP FOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  74  49  75  49 /   0  30  40  20  10
TULIA         51  74  53  76  50 /   0  20  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     52  74  53  77  52 /   0  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     53  74  51  78  52 /   0  30  40  20  10
LUBBOCK       53  76  55  79  54 /   0  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   55  73  52  79  53 /  10  40  40  20  10
BROWNFIELD    54  73  52  79  54 /  10  30  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     52  78  58  78  55 /   0  10  20  40  30
SPUR          53  77  55  81  58 /   0  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     55  77  58  81  60 /   0  10  30  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KSJT 182320
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
620 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect MVFR conditions to develop after 10z at all TAF sites
except KABI. Model guidance does hint at the possibility of MVFR
conditions making progress into the KABI terminal. However,
confidence in this occurring was not high enough to include in the
TAFs at time time. Look for VFR conditions to return to all
terminals after 17z.

Doll

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Overcast low clouds earlier today have lifted and become mostly
broken in coverage this afternoon. Cloud bases have lifted from just
a few hundred feet in some areas to mostly above two thousand feet
this afternoon.  That trend will continue into the early evening
hours.  There will in an increase in high cirrus clouds moving in
from the west near sunset. Low clouds are expect to form again by
early Saturday morning from San Angelo southward including Junction,
Sonora and Brady. Five to 10 mph east winds today are likely to
become light and variable in low lying areas overnight.  Winds will
slowly shift around and blow from the southeast and then from the
south by midday Saturday increasing to 12 to 18 mph by Saturday
afternoon. This wind increase is in association with an upper level
low pressure circulation currently near San Diego California that is
moving east quickly.  Despite this upper level circulation nearing
the area, rain changes remain low through Saturday night despite
increases in cloudiness and relative humidity.

Lyons

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)

The main highlights in the long term forecast are the potential for
showers and thunderstorms this weekend, followed by above normal
temperatures for much of next week. A potent upper level trough
currently over California, will move west and approach West Central
Texas this weekend. A disturbance is forecast to move across West
Texas Saturday afternoon/evening. High resolution models in addition
to the most of the operational models, develop convection across
much of the Permian Basin down to the Trans Pecos region, then
slowly move it west through the early evening hours. Most of the
models slowly weaken the convection as it moves into our western
counties, before dissipating it by mid evening. Although this is
very plausible, if the convection can get a cold pool going, I would
not be surprised to see it make more progress into our area. For
now, I have kept PoPs in the low end chance category, given the
uncertainty, and will continue to monitor. Modest instability and
0-6 KM Bulk Shear values of 35 to 45 knots, could yield a few strong
to severe thunderstorms.

On Sunday, the base of the aforementioned upper level trough will
swing across the Southern Plains, with a dryline located across West
Texas. West Central Texas will remain in the moist sector, with
decent instability developing during the afternoon/early evening
hours. I expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop, with the favored region being the Big Country. Decent
instability will be in place, and a few strong to severe storms will
be possible. At this time, I expect the main threats to be large
hail and strong gusty winds. Any convection that does develop will
linger into the evening hours, with most moving east of the area
after midnight.

A weak cold front will move into the Big Country Monday morning,
then slow down as it approached the the Interstate 10 corridor.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoon/evening along the front, mainly south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. For now, I have kept PoPs below 15
percent, but these may need to be raised on future shifts. The rest
of the week will be characterized by above normal temperatures, with
highs mainly in the 90s and lows generally in the 60s. Isolated
dryline convection will be possible late Wednesday and Thursday, but
given the uncertainty this far out, I have opted to leave out any
mention from the grids at this time.

Daniels

FIRE WEATHER...
A combination of fairly moist air and light winds will keep the fire
weather damage low through Saturday morning. Fire weather
conditions will become elevated Saturday afternoon as a consequence
strengthening south and southeast winds of 12 to 18 knots with
higher gusts combined with existing very dry vegetation.

Lyons

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  58  77  59  80 /  10   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  78  58  79  58  82 /  30   5  10  30  30
Junction  79  60  78  58  80 /  20   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Doll







000
FXUS64 KHGX 182251
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
551 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF ISSUANCE. THIS
MORNING THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AS WINDS
DECOUPLE. A CIRRUS DECK IS ALSO FORECASTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE CIRRUS
SHOULD HELP VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT AT RURAL
SITES SUCH AS KCXO AND KLBX. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH LIGHT CAA/UPPER RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE A BIT LONGER...LOOKS
LIKE DRY/MILD WX TO PERSIST ACROSS SE TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF MOISTURE UNTIL LATE SUN...BUT MODELS KEEP-
ING WITH THE DRIER TREND AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF TAKES A MORE NLY
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUN THROUGH TUES. THIS SYS-
TEM PROGGED TO BRING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA TUE AS AN-
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THIS REINFORCING AIRMASS
TO BRING DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY AROUND MID WEEK.

DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL HELP THE RETURN FLOW RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HERALD THE RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND WARMER TEMPS) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. NOT
TERRIBLY KEEN REGARDING THE RETURN OF LOW POPS UNTIL NEXT FRI OR
SO (AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND) WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE UPPER
(SUBTROPICAL) JET. 41

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK. LOW
SEAS WILL PERSIST. WEAK FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SE TX ON TUE
BUT LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER SE WINDS/SEAS DURING THE
2ND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.  47


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  80  59  80  63 /  10  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  80  60  81  64 /  10  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  76  64  77  68 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182139
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
339 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND AREAS
EAST OF EL PASO TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN A THREAT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY...
BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE NEXT WEEK...
PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WINDY AND DRY STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES 40-PLUS DEWPOINTS WHICH HAD BEEN NOSING
INTO SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY HAVE SINCE MIXED OUT TO THE EAST.
40S CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM FAR NORTHEASTERN CHIHUAHUA INTO SE
HUDSPETH COUNTY...THE DELL VALLEY...AND THEN EAST OF THE
SACRAMENTO AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. MID-30S ARE STILL NOSING UP
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ROUGHLY AS FAR NORTH AS HATCH.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OUR UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ELONGATED VORT MAX STRETCHES FROM SE ARIZONA THROUGH CENTRAL
CHIHUAHUA...WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE MOVING INTO SE ARIZONA AND
NORTHEASTERN SONORA.

SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS HAD HIGH HOPES THAT THIS FIRST VORT MAX
WOULD LEAD TO A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP...BUT ITS PRETTY MUCH ALL
VIRGA IN THE BOOTHEEL WHILE A FEW HUNDREDTHS HAVE REACHED THE
GROUND IN COCHISE COUNTY AZ.  THIS HAS HELPED BOOST DEWPOINTS IN
THE AREA INTO THE MID-30S AND LOW 40S...AND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST HOUR IN
NORTHEASTERN SONORA AHEAD OF THE 2ND VORT MAX.

WE COULD STILL SEE SOME ACTION FROM THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AS PVA
BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA WHERE THE
40S DEWPOINTS ARE LURKING. BUT SO FAR JUST A FEW BABY CU ARE
POPPING UP OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA VIEJA. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS HAD BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP CONVECTION IN/AROUND
EL PASO BETWEEN 23-01Z...BUT THIS IS BEGINNING TO LOOK FAIRLY
UNLIKELY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THEN SE HUDSPETH COUNTY THIS EVENING WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER MOVING INTO HUDSPETH/OTERO
COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY CLIPPING
EL PASO COUNTY.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MORE ACTIVE DAY AREA-WIDE AND DEEP/MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE
AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY...GENERALLY 250-500 J/KG CAPE AND LI -1 TO
-3C WILL ENCOMPASS PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE AREA. WITH NO REAL
DISTINCT MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISM...IT IS DIFFICULT TO FAVOR ANY
PARTICULAR PART OF THE CWA OR GIVE BETTER TIMING OTHER THAN MID-
MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE SACS/GILA REGION AND EASTERN EL
PASO/HUDSPETH COUNTY...THE LATTER BEING CLOSER TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WHICH WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELL
STORMS... WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT IN STRONGER STORMS...AND
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWLANDS. STRONG MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY DECREASING LOW-LEVEL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.20 TO 0.75 INCHES WITH
TYPICAL CONVECTIVE VARIATIONS...BUT OVERALL HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
SACS/GILA REGION AND HUDSPETH COUNTY...AND THE LOWEST AMOUNTS IN
THE LOWLANDS OF SW NEW MEXICO. LOCALIZED FLOODING NOT ENTIRELY
IMPOSSIBLE BUT HIGHLY ISOLATED WHERE HEAVIER STORMS MAY TEND TO
TRAIN.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
RAINFALL... WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY FAVORING AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY AND BUILD IN MONDAY BUT WILL BE TOPPED
BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. WITH LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN
THE LOW/MID-30S... A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY MONDAY AND EVEN TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A TYPICAL WINDY
SPRING DAY WITH POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST DEPENDING ON THE IMPACTS OF
ANY RAINFALL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ADVISORY CRITERIA LOOKS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT A SLAM-DUNK. TEMPS MAY FLIRT WITH 90 IN THE
LOWLANDS AS WELL.

COOLER BUT STILL-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH
SATURDAY... PERHAPS BECOMING WINDY AGAIN THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z-20/00Z...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY.
GENERAL CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON P6SM FEW-SCT040-060
SCT-BKN080-120 BKN-OVC200-250 WITH ISOLD-SCTD TSTMS. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS...STRONG WINDS...AND HAIL ARE LIKELY NEAR ANY TSTMS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
BRINGING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPORT LOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
BRING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY OVER
THE GILA REGION AND THE SACRAMENTO MTNS SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
AND THE RETURN OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT
THE MOISTURE SUNDAY...WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE SATURDAY...THEN DOWN TO THE TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY. VENTILATION
RATES GOOD OR BETTER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH VERY LOW (2 OR 3)
HAINES INDICES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 59  76  55  79  59 /  40  50  10   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           50  74  51  76  52 /  60  60  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              56  74  50  77  54 /  30  40  20  10   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  74  48  77  52 /  30  40  30  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              39  55  39  53  38 /  40  70  30  30  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   52  73  50  76  51 /  20  40  30  10   0
SILVER CITY             46  68  46  71  47 /  30  40  20  20  10
DEMING                  50  75  45  78  48 /  20  40  10  10   0
LORDSBURG               48  74  46  77  50 /  20  30  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      61  76  57  79  60 /  40  50  10   0   0
DELL CITY               52  72  45  77  46 /  50  60  20  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            57  81  59  83  59 /  60  60  20   0   0
LOMA LINDA              48  68  48  72  52 /  50  60  20   0   0
FABENS                  54  78  51  79  55 /  50  50  10   0   0
SANTA TERESA            57  75  53  78  56 /  30  40  10   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          59  72  57  76  61 /  30  40  20  10   0
JORNADA RANGE           45  73  42  76  45 /  30  40  20  10   0
HATCH                   49  73  47  76  49 /  20  40  20  10   0
COLUMBUS                58  74  55  76  55 /  30  40  10   0   0
OROGRANDE               51  75  49  80  52 /  30  40  20  10   0
MAYHILL                 43  60  42  63  44 /  50  70  30  30  20
MESCALERO               41  63  42  65  37 /  40  60  30  30  20
TIMBERON                40  60  41  63  37 /  40  60  30  20  10
WINSTON                 46  65  46  69  46 /  30  50  30  20  10
HILLSBORO               52  68  51  71  55 /  30  40  30  20   0
SPACEPORT               49  71  44  74  51 /  20  40  30  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            43  66  40  69  40 /  40  50  30  30  20
HURLEY                  45  69  46  71  47 /  30  40  20  20   0
CLIFF                   43  75  42  76  43 /  30  40  20  20  10
MULE CREEK              36  71  36  74  33 /  30  50  20  20  10
FAYWOOD                 48  68  46  71  49 /  30  40  20  20   0
ANIMAS                  51  76  49  78  54 /  30  40  10   0   0
HACHITA                 50  74  47  77  49 /  30  40  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          51  77  49  80  54 /  30  30  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              46  73  44  76  47 /  30  40  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25-HARDIMAN / 21-PARK






000
FXUS64 KLUB 182052
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
352 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE SHORT TERM THRU TOMORROW
EVENING. WV CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMMA HEAD LOW OVER SO-CAL DRAWING
IN PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES OF THE
PACIFIC. THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS AND
THE NAM CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIP FROM THE SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE
THE PRECIP INTO THE FA BUT BOTH SEEM TO FAVOR OUR SW ZONES FOR THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COVERAGE
WITH SUPPLYING THE MOST LIFT AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT WILL BE DYNAMIC AS CAPE APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AND LAPSE RATES ARE ANYTHING BUT STEEP. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PREVENT MUCH IF ANY DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SHOULD
NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. FOR NOW I
HAVE KEPT POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
NOTHING AT THE MOMENT INDICATES ANY CHANGE IS NEEDED. I HAVE KEPT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP COVERAGE OVER OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH
POPS AROUND 40 SCATTERED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. ALDRICH

&&

.LONG TERM...
WE EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SAT EVENING...BUT ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN OF THE
COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...SO HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY
BROADLY PAINATED. AS THE PRIMARY LIFT WITH THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE WHERE THE
SFC FEATURES WILL BE LOCATED AND WHERE LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND LIFT
MAY BEST MATCH UP WITH UPPER-LIFT...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME DRYING WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST...WHILE MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXPAND AND RAISE
POPS...CONCENTRATING ON THE EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SFC-BASED
CAPES COULD RUN NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE EAST...DEPENDING ON THE
IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...LIKELY SOMEWHAT BETTER IN THE
SOUTH THAT NORTH. WE THINK THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS...AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO THAT IS BRIEFLY
SEVERE. THE WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND
THERE IS A HINT THAT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME AIDED BY SOME WEAK LIFT IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WE THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SURVIVING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE/VE
KEPT POPS SILENT FOR NOW. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ADVECT MOISTURE
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE CWA ON THE LOW-LVL JET WED MORNING AND THEN
DEVELOP CONVECTION EAST OF A DRYLINE LATE WED AFTN AND EVE. WE/VE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...WHILE IT SHOULD BE VERY WARM AND DRY UP ON THE
CAPROCK. AND...IF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE LATCHING ON TO
SOMETHING...A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WEST BY
NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A GOOD SETUP FOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  74  49  75  49 /   0  30  40  20  10
TULIA         51  74  53  76  50 /   0  20  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     52  74  53  77  52 /   0  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     53  74  51  78  52 /   0  30  40  20  10
LUBBOCK       53  76  55  79  54 /   0  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   55  73  52  79  53 /  10  40  40  20  10
BROWNFIELD    54  73  52  79  54 /  10  30  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     52  78  58  78  55 /   0  10  20  40  30
SPUR          53  77  55  81  58 /   0  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     55  77  58  81  60 /   0  10  30  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33






000
FXUS64 KHGX 182045
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH LIGHT CAA/UPPER RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE A BIT LONGER...LOOKS
LIKE DRY/MILD WX TO PERSIST ACROSS SE TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT RETURN OF MOISTURE UNTIL LATE SUN...BUT MODELS KEEP-
ING WITH THE DRIER TREND AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF TAKES A MORE NLY
TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUN THROUGH TUES. THIS SYS-
TEM PROGGED TO BRING ANOTHER WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA TUE AS AN-
WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THIS REINFORCING AIRMASS
TO BRING DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS BRIEFLY AROUND MID WEEK.

DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL HELP THE RETURN FLOW RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HERALD THE RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND WARMER TEMPS) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. NOT
TERRIBLY KEEN REGARDING THE RETURN OF LOW POPS UNTIL NEXT FRI OR
SO (AND POSSIBLY NEXT WEEKEND) WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE UPPER
(SUBTROPICAL) JET. 41

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK. LOW
SEAS WILL PERSIST. WEAK FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SE TX ON TUE
BUT LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER SE WINDS/SEAS DURING THE
2ND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  80  59  80  63 /  10  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              59  80  60  81  64 /  10  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  76  64  77  68 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41




000
FXUS64 KCRP 182041
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  81  65  78  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          58  82  61  80  63  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  68  86  69  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             60  84  64  81  64  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          63  76  66  76  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           60  86  64  82  64  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  80  66  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  77  66  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 182041
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
341 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER SOUTH TEXAS CURRENTLY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVER THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CA WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. CAPPING MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH BUT WILL
HOLD ONTO THE LOW END 20 POPS FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 80S OUT WEST TO LOWER
80S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AREAWIDE. LOW POPS WERE RETAINED SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
DISTURBANCE SLIDES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS SUN-MON AS WEAK S/W ENERGY AND AN UPR LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE
AREA AND INTERACTS WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE. PWATS CLIMB TO 1.3"
TO 1.5" DURING THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CAP AND LACK OF SFC FORCING
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY...AND COASTAL BEND MONDAY. THE MID LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH EXITS A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS RELAXING OUR SFC WINDS.
THESE LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN COMMENCE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP
TO MORE SUMMER LIKE VALUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND TO THE MID 90S OUT WEST DURING THE
TUE-FRI TIME PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  81  65  78  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          58  82  61  80  63  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  68  86  69  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             60  84  64  81  64  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          63  76  66  76  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           60  86  64  82  64  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  80  66  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  77  66  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KFWD 182024
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE AND SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST
MAY DEVELOP. THE VISIBILITY WILL NOT BECOME TOO RESTRICTED
SATURDAY MORNING SINCE ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD BE VERY SHALLOW.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NORTHERN MEXICO. LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER FAR WEST TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN CAPPED AS WARM AIR FROM THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU STREAMS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND
AND THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT COUPLED WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS A
PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON
THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE AND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. WE HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY BASED
ON THE AGREEMENT OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM ON SUNDAY
WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SO WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS THERE.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON TUESDAY
AND RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND NO RAIN CHANCES. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT NORTH TEXAS.
HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF THE
DRY LINE ON THURSDAY MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AND ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER NORTH TEXAS. FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY AND BRING
LITTLE MORE THAN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  56  78  61  78  63 /   5   5  20  30  30
WACO, TX              54  77  60  78  62 /   5   5  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             52  77  57  76  60 /   5   5  10  30  40
DENTON, TX            53  78  59  79  62 /   5   5  20  30  40
MCKINNEY, TX          53  75  57  77  61 /   5   5  20  30  40
DALLAS, TX            57  78  62  78  64 /   5   5  20  30  30
TERRELL, TX           53  77  58  79  62 /   5   5  10  30  30
CORSICANA, TX         56  77  59  78  62 /   5   5  10  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            54  78  58  77  62 /   5   5  20  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  77  58  76  60 /   5   5  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/79






000
FXUS64 KAMA 182021
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
321 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW JUST MOVING ON SHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE SATELLITE AND IS PUMPING
A LOT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE ONCE THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO THE UPPER AIR
GRID ON WHAT THAT DATA WILL DO TO THE MODELS. THE MODELS SEEM A
LITTLE DRY OVER OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THEN IT WILL OPEN
UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. A
COUPLE OF MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANY NEW SYSTEMS MISS US
TO THE NORTH. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  73  53  74  50 /   0  20  30  20  20
BEAVER OK                  50  79  54  79  51 /   0  20  30  30  20
BOISE CITY OK              49  77  49  74  49 /   0  20  30  30  20
BORGER TX                  52  78  56  76  53 /   0  20  30  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              51  76  52  79  51 /   0  20  30  20  20
CANYON TX                  50  73  52  75  49 /   0  20  30  20  20
CLARENDON TX               51  75  55  76  55 /   0  20  30  30  20
DALHART TX                 47  74  47  76  47 /   0  20  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  49  80  50  77  51 /   0  20  30  30  20
HEREFORD TX                49  70  50  76  48 /   0  20  30  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                51  76  55  76  55 /   0  20  30  30  20
PAMPA TX                   49  73  53  73  52 /   0  20  30  30  20
SHAMROCK TX                50  76  56  75  55 /   0  20  30  40  20
WELLINGTON TX              50  77  56  76  56 /   0  20  30  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15




000
FXUS64 KAMA 182021
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
321 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW JUST MOVING ON SHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE SATELLITE AND IS PUMPING
A LOT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE ONCE THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO THE UPPER AIR
GRID ON WHAT THAT DATA WILL DO TO THE MODELS. THE MODELS SEEM A
LITTLE DRY OVER OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THEN IT WILL OPEN
UP AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. A
COUPLE OF MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MAY MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH WHICH COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANY NEW SYSTEMS MISS US
TO THE NORTH. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN STORE
ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND GIVEN THE CHANCES OF RAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  73  53  74  50 /   0  20  30  20  20
BEAVER OK                  50  79  54  79  51 /   0  20  30  30  20
BOISE CITY OK              49  77  49  74  49 /   0  20  30  30  20
BORGER TX                  52  78  56  76  53 /   0  20  30  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              51  76  52  79  51 /   0  20  30  20  20
CANYON TX                  50  73  52  75  49 /   0  20  30  20  20
CLARENDON TX               51  75  55  76  55 /   0  20  30  30  20
DALHART TX                 47  74  47  76  47 /   0  20  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  49  80  50  77  51 /   0  20  30  30  20
HEREFORD TX                49  70  50  76  48 /   0  20  30  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                51  76  55  76  55 /   0  20  30  30  20
PAMPA TX                   49  73  53  73  52 /   0  20  30  30  20
SHAMROCK TX                50  76  56  75  55 /   0  20  30  40  20
WELLINGTON TX              50  77  56  76  56 /   0  20  30  40  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/15





000
FXUS64 KSJT 182013
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Overcast low clouds earlier today have lifted and become mostly
broken in coverage this afternoon. Cloud bases have lifted from just
a few hundred feet in some areas to mostly above two thousand feet
this afternoon.  That trend will continue into the early evening
hours.  There will in an increase in high cirrus clouds moving in
from the west near sunset. Low clouds are expect to form again by
early Saturday morning from San Angelo southward including Junction,
Sonora and Brady. Five to 10 mph east winds today are likely to
become light and variable in low lying areas overnight.  Winds will
slowly shift around and blow from the southeast and then from the
south by midday Saturday increasing to 12 to 18 mph by Saturday
afternoon. This wind increase is in association with an upper level
low pressure circulation currently near San Diego California that is
moving east quickly.  Despite this upper level circulation nearing
the area, rain changes remain low through Saturday night despite
increases in cloudiness and relative humidity.

Lyons

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)

The main highlights in the long term forecast are the potential for
showers and thunderstorms this weekend, followed by above normal
temperatures for much of next week. A potent upper level trough
currently over California, will move west and approach West Central
Texas this weekend. A disturbance is forecast to move across West
Texas Saturday afternoon/evening. High resolution models in addition
to the most of the operational models, develop convection across
much of the Permian Basin down to the Trans Pecos region, then
slowly move it west through the early evening hours. Most of the
models slowly weaken the convection as it moves into our western
counties, before dissipating it by mid evening. Although this is
very plausible, if the convection can get a cold pool going, I would
not be surprised to see it make more progress into our area. For
now, I have kept PoPs in the low end chance category, given the
uncertainty, and will continue to monitor. Modest instability and
0-6 KM Bulk Shear values of 35 to 45 knots, could yield a few strong
to severe thunderstorms.

On Sunday, the base of the aforementioned upper level trough will
swing across the Southern Plains, with a dryline located across West
Texas. West Central Texas will remain in the moist sector, with
decent instability developing during the afternoon/early evening
hours. I expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop, with the favored region being the Big Country. Decent
instability will be in place, and a few strong to severe storms will
be possible. At this time, I expect the main threats to be large
hail and strong gusty winds. Any convection that does develop will
linger into the evening hours, with most moving east of the area
after midnight.

A weak cold front will move into the Big Country Monday morning,
then slow down as it approached the the Interstate 10 corridor.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoon/evening along the front, mainly south of a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. For now, I have kept PoPs below 15
percent, but these may need to be raised on future shifts. The rest
of the week will be characterized by above normal temperatures, with
highs mainly in the 90s and lows generally in the 60s. Isolated
dryline convection will be possible late Wednesday and Thursday, but
given the uncertainty this far out, I have opted to leave out any
mention from the grids at this time.

Daniels

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A combination of fairly moist air and light winds will keep the fire
weather damage low through Saturday morning. Fire weather
conditions will become elevated Saturday afternoon as a consequence
strengthening south and southeast winds of 12 to 18 knots with
higher gusts combined with existing very dry vegetation.

Lyons

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  58  77  59  80  62 /   5  10  30  30  20
San Angelo  58  79  58  82  61 /   5  10  30  30  20
Junction  60  78  58  80  63 /   5  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Lyons/Daniels






000
FXUS64 KEWX 181959
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
259 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST APPROACHES TEXAS. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND EXPAND TO MUCH OF THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW
QPF AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
AND DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES INTO EAST
TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL MID-WEEK AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK.
MODELS AREN`T QUITE SURE HOW FAR SOUTHWARD TO SEND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT WE WILL BE TOO
FAR SOUTH AND WILL GET DRY-SLOTTED INSTEAD.

THE FLAT PATTERN ALOFT AND SLY FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL LEAD TO A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE MID 80S/EAST TO LOW 90S/WEST AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  80  60  80  63 /   0   0  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  53  80  57  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  81  59  80  61 /   0  -   20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  78  60  78  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  80  64  82  66 /  -   20  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  78  59  79  64 /   0   0  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  83  63  83  65 /   0  10  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        55  80  58  79  61 /   0   0  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   56  80  58  79  61 /  -    0  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  81  61  81  63 /   0  -   20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  83  61  82  64 /   0  -   20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25






000
FXUS64 KBRO 181924
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
224 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...COASTAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LEADING TO A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY. SATELLITE DEPICTS MULTILAYERED LOW AND MID
CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE REACHING THE
SURFACE. ALOFT...THE AREA RESIDES UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. DEEP SUBTROPICAL TAP
IS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST WITH PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NORTHERN MEXICO.

COASTAL TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE NORTHERN TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FOG PRONE AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 281. INHERITED LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...READINGS IN THE 60S.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUBTROPICAL STREAM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD OVERSPREADING THE AREA. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...AND BROAD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE CWA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE...ALBEIT SLIGHT CHANCE...THAT ONE OR TWO MAY MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE CAP WILL BE STRONG OUT WEST
OWING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MAINLY
ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...AND STARR COUNTIES. NUDGED HIGHS SATURDAY DOWN A
DEGREE HERE AND THERE BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SATURDAY NIGHT
LOWS LOOKED GOOD.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL
PUSH WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FROM SUNDAY ON
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
500 MB RIDGING PUSHING OVER THE AREA FROM TUES THROUGH WED WITH A
LARGE 500 MB CLOSED LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED WITH RH VALUES DIMINISHING EVEN MORE
SOAS THE 500 MB RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO
THE NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO PROVIDE ANY DECENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION LATER NEXT WEEK. SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A MENTION OF SLGT
CHC POPS AS THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE WAA AND THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO CONTINUE WARMING. THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX MOS TEMPS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY WARMER BIAS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A 50/50 MODEL BLEND
BETWEEN THE ECWMF AND GFS MODELS SETS FOR TEMPS.

RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
STABLE THROUGH DAY 7. MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST WORDING IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 13 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY UNDER 6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 13 CDT/18 UTC.
SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION INTO TONIGHT FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO SEAS.
IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MODERATE PGF WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE LONGER RANGE CWF PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE
GULF OF MEX. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BAY AND GULF WINDS AND SEAS
DOWN BELOW SCA LEVELS. HOWEVER ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THE PGF ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE POSSIBLY PUSHING
CONDITIONS UP CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  65  78  67  79 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          63  80  67  80 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            62  82  66  81 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              64  84  67  83 /  10  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      64  84  67  84 /  10  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  76  68  76 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM..60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...58






000
FXUS64 KMAF 181840
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
140 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Rain chances are still looking pretty decent Saturday and Saturday
night, even for the Permian Basin.  Despite another frontal boundary
moving into the region on Monday, next week is still looking hot.
Just how dry remains to be seen.

An ua trough over southern California this afternoon is progged to
translate gradually eastward the next couple of days and move over
the Texas Panhandle Sunday.  Increasing low level moisture on low
level southeasterly flow will continue tonight and Saturday as this
ua trough approaches, resulting in surface dewpoints rising into the
50s over most of southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  By late this
afternoon, a surface trough will reside near the western fringe of
the forecast area.  It appears there will be enough low level
moisture for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
heated higher terrain.  Since mid level support for convection is
lacking, think anything that develops will dissipate with the loss
of heating.  Ascent will increase later tonight ahead of a
shortwave trough, while the surface trough eases eastward into the
area.  Think we could see showers and weak thunderstorms late
tonight, especially from the Guadalupe to Davis Mountains.  The
surface trough will continue slowly eastward Saturday and will
stay near the higher terrain by Saturday afternoon.  Most models
are focusing rain chances along the surface trough as a more
substantial shortwave trough ejects eastward over the area.  Have
increased PoPs over the western half of the forecast area, then
shifted PoPs eastward over the Permian Basin Saturday night.  0 to
6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50kt, mid level lapse rates around 7 C/Km
and a modest H5 45kt jetlet look favorable for severe storms.
However, not certain instability will be as high as some models
are indicating.  For now, will only mention an isolated severe
thunderstorm or two in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for Saturday
and Saturday night.  These time frames will have to be monitored
though, since better heating and the resultant higher surface
based CAPE could lead to a severe weather event.  PWATS will rise
to 1.25 inches which will prompt inclusion of locally heavy
rainfall, particularly from the Davis Mountains, north through the
Upper Trans Pecos and into the southeast New Mexico Plains.  These
areas will also be most favorable for severe storms if the higher
instability can be realized, not to mention heavy rain.

On Sunday the ua trough will linger over the forecast area.  Have
kept a slight chance over the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially since these areas may receive little rainfall through
Saturday night.  Temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s with
some models indicating enough instability cropping up for strong
storms Sunday afternoon.  Prefer to keep the PoPs low at this time,
and leave mention of severe storms in this discussion since
precipitation through Saturday night could severely limit
instability Sunday afternoon.  A weak cold front will move south
into the area Monday.  There will not be much cooling behind this
front, but low level moisture could be shunted back into the Davis
Mountains, if not Guadalupe Mountains.  Will not include any mention
of showers and thunderstorms at this time for Monday or Monday
night, but some may need to be added if today`s model trends
continue.  Temperatures will be a little warmer Monday and Tuesday,
but will warm well above normal Wednesday as a low level thermal
ridge expands over the region.  Temperatures may be a little cooler,
but still hot, Thursday and Friday as the thermal ridge flattens due
to a trough passing over the central Rockies.  A dryline will begin
diurnal undulations over the area Wednesday, but will not include
any rain chances yet.  Much can change between now and then, and at
this time there is no definite mid level feature to support any
convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  75  58  82  /  10  40  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              59  77  61  81  /   0  20  40  30
CARLSBAD NM                55  75  50  82  /  30  50  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  61  79  63  83  /   0  20  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  78  59  82  /  10  40  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          52  69  53  76  /  40  50  20  10
HOBBS NM                   52  71  52  80  /  10  50  30  20
MARFA TX                   49  74  48  77  /  30  60  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    59  76  60  82  /   0  30  50  20
ODESSA TX                  59  76  59  81  /   0  30  50  20
WINK TX                    58  77  57  83  /  10  50  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/67






000
FXUS64 KMAF 181840
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
140 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Rain chances are still looking pretty decent Saturday and Saturday
night, even for the Permian Basin.  Despite another frontal boundary
moving into the region on Monday, next week is still looking hot.
Just how dry remains to be seen.

An ua trough over southern California this afternoon is progged to
translate gradually eastward the next couple of days and move over
the Texas Panhandle Sunday.  Increasing low level moisture on low
level southeasterly flow will continue tonight and Saturday as this
ua trough approaches, resulting in surface dewpoints rising into the
50s over most of southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  By late this
afternoon, a surface trough will reside near the western fringe of
the forecast area.  It appears there will be enough low level
moisture for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
heated higher terrain.  Since mid level support for convection is
lacking, think anything that develops will dissipate with the loss
of heating.  Ascent will increase later tonight ahead of a
shortwave trough, while the surface trough eases eastward into the
area.  Think we could see showers and weak thunderstorms late
tonight, especially from the Guadalupe to Davis Mountains.  The
surface trough will continue slowly eastward Saturday and will
stay near the higher terrain by Saturday afternoon.  Most models
are focusing rain chances along the surface trough as a more
substantial shortwave trough ejects eastward over the area.  Have
increased PoPs over the western half of the forecast area, then
shifted PoPs eastward over the Permian Basin Saturday night.  0 to
6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50kt, mid level lapse rates around 7 C/Km
and a modest H5 45kt jetlet look favorable for severe storms.
However, not certain instability will be as high as some models
are indicating.  For now, will only mention an isolated severe
thunderstorm or two in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for Saturday
and Saturday night.  These time frames will have to be monitored
though, since better heating and the resultant higher surface
based CAPE could lead to a severe weather event.  PWATS will rise
to 1.25 inches which will prompt inclusion of locally heavy
rainfall, particularly from the Davis Mountains, north through the
Upper Trans Pecos and into the southeast New Mexico Plains.  These
areas will also be most favorable for severe storms if the higher
instability can be realized, not to mention heavy rain.

On Sunday the ua trough will linger over the forecast area.  Have
kept a slight chance over the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially since these areas may receive little rainfall through
Saturday night.  Temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s with
some models indicating enough instability cropping up for strong
storms Sunday afternoon.  Prefer to keep the PoPs low at this time,
and leave mention of severe storms in this discussion since
precipitation through Saturday night could severely limit
instability Sunday afternoon.  A weak cold front will move south
into the area Monday.  There will not be much cooling behind this
front, but low level moisture could be shunted back into the Davis
Mountains, if not Guadalupe Mountains.  Will not include any mention
of showers and thunderstorms at this time for Monday or Monday
night, but some may need to be added if today`s model trends
continue.  Temperatures will be a little warmer Monday and Tuesday,
but will warm well above normal Wednesday as a low level thermal
ridge expands over the region.  Temperatures may be a little cooler,
but still hot, Thursday and Friday as the thermal ridge flattens due
to a trough passing over the central Rockies.  A dryline will begin
diurnal undulations over the area Wednesday, but will not include
any rain chances yet.  Much can change between now and then, and at
this time there is no definite mid level feature to support any
convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  75  58  82  /  10  40  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              59  77  61  81  /   0  20  40  30
CARLSBAD NM                55  75  50  82  /  30  50  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  61  79  63  83  /   0  20  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  78  59  82  /  10  40  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          52  69  53  76  /  40  50  20  10
HOBBS NM                   52  71  52  80  /  10  50  30  20
MARFA TX                   49  74  48  77  /  30  60  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    59  76  60  82  /   0  30  50  20
ODESSA TX                  59  76  59  81  /   0  30  50  20
WINK TX                    58  77  57  83  /  10  50  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/67






000
FXUS64 KMAF 181840
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
140 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Rain chances are still looking pretty decent Saturday and Saturday
night, even for the Permian Basin.  Despite another frontal boundary
moving into the region on Monday, next week is still looking hot.
Just how dry remains to be seen.

An ua trough over southern California this afternoon is progged to
translate gradually eastward the next couple of days and move over
the Texas Panhandle Sunday.  Increasing low level moisture on low
level southeasterly flow will continue tonight and Saturday as this
ua trough approaches, resulting in surface dewpoints rising into the
50s over most of southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  By late this
afternoon, a surface trough will reside near the western fringe of
the forecast area.  It appears there will be enough low level
moisture for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
heated higher terrain.  Since mid level support for convection is
lacking, think anything that develops will dissipate with the loss
of heating.  Ascent will increase later tonight ahead of a
shortwave trough, while the surface trough eases eastward into the
area.  Think we could see showers and weak thunderstorms late
tonight, especially from the Guadalupe to Davis Mountains.  The
surface trough will continue slowly eastward Saturday and will
stay near the higher terrain by Saturday afternoon.  Most models
are focusing rain chances along the surface trough as a more
substantial shortwave trough ejects eastward over the area.  Have
increased PoPs over the western half of the forecast area, then
shifted PoPs eastward over the Permian Basin Saturday night.  0 to
6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50kt, mid level lapse rates around 7 C/Km
and a modest H5 45kt jetlet look favorable for severe storms.
However, not certain instability will be as high as some models
are indicating.  For now, will only mention an isolated severe
thunderstorm or two in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for Saturday
and Saturday night.  These time frames will have to be monitored
though, since better heating and the resultant higher surface
based CAPE could lead to a severe weather event.  PWATS will rise
to 1.25 inches which will prompt inclusion of locally heavy
rainfall, particularly from the Davis Mountains, north through the
Upper Trans Pecos and into the southeast New Mexico Plains.  These
areas will also be most favorable for severe storms if the higher
instability can be realized, not to mention heavy rain.

On Sunday the ua trough will linger over the forecast area.  Have
kept a slight chance over the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially since these areas may receive little rainfall through
Saturday night.  Temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s with
some models indicating enough instability cropping up for strong
storms Sunday afternoon.  Prefer to keep the PoPs low at this time,
and leave mention of severe storms in this discussion since
precipitation through Saturday night could severely limit
instability Sunday afternoon.  A weak cold front will move south
into the area Monday.  There will not be much cooling behind this
front, but low level moisture could be shunted back into the Davis
Mountains, if not Guadalupe Mountains.  Will not include any mention
of showers and thunderstorms at this time for Monday or Monday
night, but some may need to be added if today`s model trends
continue.  Temperatures will be a little warmer Monday and Tuesday,
but will warm well above normal Wednesday as a low level thermal
ridge expands over the region.  Temperatures may be a little cooler,
but still hot, Thursday and Friday as the thermal ridge flattens due
to a trough passing over the central Rockies.  A dryline will begin
diurnal undulations over the area Wednesday, but will not include
any rain chances yet.  Much can change between now and then, and at
this time there is no definite mid level feature to support any
convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  75  58  82  /  10  40  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              59  77  61  81  /   0  20  40  30
CARLSBAD NM                55  75  50  82  /  30  50  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  61  79  63  83  /   0  20  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  78  59  82  /  10  40  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          52  69  53  76  /  40  50  20  10
HOBBS NM                   52  71  52  80  /  10  50  30  20
MARFA TX                   49  74  48  77  /  30  60  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    59  76  60  82  /   0  30  50  20
ODESSA TX                  59  76  59  81  /   0  30  50  20
WINK TX                    58  77  57  83  /  10  50  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/67






000
FXUS64 KMAF 181840
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
140 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Rain chances are still looking pretty decent Saturday and Saturday
night, even for the Permian Basin.  Despite another frontal boundary
moving into the region on Monday, next week is still looking hot.
Just how dry remains to be seen.

An ua trough over southern California this afternoon is progged to
translate gradually eastward the next couple of days and move over
the Texas Panhandle Sunday.  Increasing low level moisture on low
level southeasterly flow will continue tonight and Saturday as this
ua trough approaches, resulting in surface dewpoints rising into the
50s over most of southeast New Mexico and West Texas.  By late this
afternoon, a surface trough will reside near the western fringe of
the forecast area.  It appears there will be enough low level
moisture for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms over the
heated higher terrain.  Since mid level support for convection is
lacking, think anything that develops will dissipate with the loss
of heating.  Ascent will increase later tonight ahead of a
shortwave trough, while the surface trough eases eastward into the
area.  Think we could see showers and weak thunderstorms late
tonight, especially from the Guadalupe to Davis Mountains.  The
surface trough will continue slowly eastward Saturday and will
stay near the higher terrain by Saturday afternoon.  Most models
are focusing rain chances along the surface trough as a more
substantial shortwave trough ejects eastward over the area.  Have
increased PoPs over the western half of the forecast area, then
shifted PoPs eastward over the Permian Basin Saturday night.  0 to
6 km bulk shear of 40 to 50kt, mid level lapse rates around 7 C/Km
and a modest H5 45kt jetlet look favorable for severe storms.
However, not certain instability will be as high as some models
are indicating.  For now, will only mention an isolated severe
thunderstorm or two in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for Saturday
and Saturday night.  These time frames will have to be monitored
though, since better heating and the resultant higher surface
based CAPE could lead to a severe weather event.  PWATS will rise
to 1.25 inches which will prompt inclusion of locally heavy
rainfall, particularly from the Davis Mountains, north through the
Upper Trans Pecos and into the southeast New Mexico Plains.  These
areas will also be most favorable for severe storms if the higher
instability can be realized, not to mention heavy rain.

On Sunday the ua trough will linger over the forecast area.  Have
kept a slight chance over the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially since these areas may receive little rainfall through
Saturday night.  Temperatures will warm into the 70s and 80s with
some models indicating enough instability cropping up for strong
storms Sunday afternoon.  Prefer to keep the PoPs low at this time,
and leave mention of severe storms in this discussion since
precipitation through Saturday night could severely limit
instability Sunday afternoon.  A weak cold front will move south
into the area Monday.  There will not be much cooling behind this
front, but low level moisture could be shunted back into the Davis
Mountains, if not Guadalupe Mountains.  Will not include any mention
of showers and thunderstorms at this time for Monday or Monday
night, but some may need to be added if today`s model trends
continue.  Temperatures will be a little warmer Monday and Tuesday,
but will warm well above normal Wednesday as a low level thermal
ridge expands over the region.  Temperatures may be a little cooler,
but still hot, Thursday and Friday as the thermal ridge flattens due
to a trough passing over the central Rockies.  A dryline will begin
diurnal undulations over the area Wednesday, but will not include
any rain chances yet.  Much can change between now and then, and at
this time there is no definite mid level feature to support any
convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  75  58  82  /  10  40  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              59  77  61  81  /   0  20  40  30
CARLSBAD NM                55  75  50  82  /  30  50  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  61  79  63  83  /   0  20  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  78  59  82  /  10  40  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          52  69  53  76  /  40  50  20  10
HOBBS NM                   52  71  52  80  /  10  50  30  20
MARFA TX                   49  74  48  77  /  30  60  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    59  76  60  82  /   0  30  50  20
ODESSA TX                  59  76  59  81  /   0  30  50  20
WINK TX                    58  77  57  83  /  10  50  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/67






000
FXUS64 KFWD 181754 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1254 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LIGHT BR/HZ POSSIBLE SATURDAY DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR.

MORNING CEILINGS ARE GONE BUT SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST. AGREE WITH CWSU
ZFW THAT SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG/HAZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES. A REPEAT OF SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF SURFACE HEATING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL...BUT WE WILL SOME
MINOR HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IS
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WANES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A
GRADUAL TOP DOWN DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. COMPACT BUT STRONG
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
AND WILL LEAVE SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE AIDING IN SCATTERING OUT THE
CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AN
IMPRESSIVE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS RESULTING IN A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY SATURDAY EVENING
WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING INTO WEST TEXAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING BY
LATE SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS WEST TEXAS BUT IT IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT THESE WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY OF OUR
AREA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A STRONG SURGE OF MID LEVEL
HIGH THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS. THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL HAVE 20 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON SUNDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE WILL BE
CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA SO THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW AT BEST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY LEAVING NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS /WEAK FRONT/
MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DURING THIS TIME AND THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.
WITH AMPLE AFTERNOON HEATING AND MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...AT
LEAST A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES APPEARING TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WILL HAVE SOME LOW
POPS IN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE
GIVEN THE AMPLE INSTABILITY.

WEAK RIDGING AGAIN PASSES BY ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. BY MIDWEEK. IT APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE WED/THU AFTERNOONS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  57  79  61  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
WACO, TX              74  52  79  59  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
PARIS, TX             73  53  76  57  77 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            72  55  78  59  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  54  78  58  78 /  10   5   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            74  58  79  61  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
TERRELL, TX           74  54  77  58  77 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  55  80  59  78 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  53  79  58  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  53  78  58  78 /  10   5   5  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/79







000
FXUS64 KEWX 181748 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1248 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
A MIX OF VFR/UPPER END MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ALONG THE I-35 TERMINALS AS LOW CIGS GO UP AND DOWN
BETWEEN 3 TO 4 KFT. REST OF TODAY AND EVENING...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING/BREAKING
BY MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS RETURN
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREA SITES AT OR AROUND 17Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ISOLATED
STORMS NEARBY KDRT AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...
FOG AND DRIZZLE HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION. THIS WEAK DRYING WILL ENABLE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD BUT SEASONABLE...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. ONGOING FORECAST IS OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FIRST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THIS MORNING ALONG WITH FOG AND LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER
15Z BACK TO MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO END. AFTER 18Z
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT BETWEEN 09Z-11Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EAST AND NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER
15Z. WILL SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WANE THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AT MID-LEVELS. THE RESULT WILL BE PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE THROUGH MID-MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT...CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS 5F OR SO WARMER THAN THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE WEAK RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE GENERAL ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SPUTTERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN BITS AND PIECES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. DECIDED TO SHOTGUN 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN REFOCUS 20 POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT...
SOME LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MANY WILL ONLY RECEIVE 1/10
INCH OR LESS. ONE OR TWO SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY SEE
ONE INCH FROM ISOLATED...STRONGER STORMS.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR POPS TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY IN THE FAR WEST (MEXICAN MOUNTAINS) OR
FAR EAST (STREAMER SHOWERS) TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THAT
SAID...WITH FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW AND NO SURFACE BOUNDARIES...
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT. THERE WILL BE SOME
WARMING NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF ON
THURSDAY...AND ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST NEXT FRIDAY. THE
HEAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...SO WILL
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE FOR NEXT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  80  60  79  62 /  -   10  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  54  80  57  79  60 /  -   10  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     57  81  58  79  60 /  -   10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  78  59  78  62 /  -   10  20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  80  64  81  66 /  20  20  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  79  59  78  63 /  -   10  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             59  82  62  81  64 /  -   20  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  80  58  78  60 /  -   10  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   57  79  58  79  62 /  -   10  20  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  82  61  79  64 /  -   10  20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           59  82  61  81  64 /  -   10  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KAMA 181747
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1247 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19/18Z IS HIGH AT
KDHT AND KGUY. PESKILY PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES NEAR KAMA.
RENEWED CLOUDINESS SPREADING EASTWARD WILL THREATEN LOW VFR /NEAR
MVFR/ CEILINGS THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER
IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND GENERALLY FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY.

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL IMPACT THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN SUCH THAT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY AND FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR
TONIGHT FOR WRN TX PNHDL AND THEN REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORWTAVE TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE RETAINED SLGT
CHC TO CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REORIENTED THEM SUNDAY TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE FCST AREA WITH SLGT CHC VALUES WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS...AND CHC POPS ERN ZONES. PRECIP TYPE THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS SOME PRECIP INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE INSERTED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR ALL OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 06Z...THEN DRY REMAINDER
OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CNTRL STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DISAGREE IN HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR
STORM SYSTEM IN ALL ASPECTS RANGING FROM TROF ORIENTATION TO PROGGED
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AREAS. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS THE FASTEST AND 00Z GFS THE SLOWEST. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PRONOUNCED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SEEN FOR WEDNESDAY. THESE SW WINDS WILL LIKELY SEND THE
DRYLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD INTO EITHER THE ERN ZONES OR PERHAPS WRN
OK BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. FCSTG WHERE THIS DRYLINE BOUNDARY SITUATES
ITSELF DURG THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME AND IS BEST HANDLED AS TIME GETS CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO
RETAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KAMA 181747
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1247 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE FOR CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19/18Z IS HIGH AT
KDHT AND KGUY. PESKILY PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES NEAR KAMA.
RENEWED CLOUDINESS SPREADING EASTWARD WILL THREATEN LOW VFR /NEAR
MVFR/ CEILINGS THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER
IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND GENERALLY FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY.

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL IMPACT THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN SUCH THAT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY AND FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR
TONIGHT FOR WRN TX PNHDL AND THEN REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORWTAVE TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE RETAINED SLGT
CHC TO CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REORIENTED THEM SUNDAY TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE FCST AREA WITH SLGT CHC VALUES WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS...AND CHC POPS ERN ZONES. PRECIP TYPE THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS SOME PRECIP INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE INSERTED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR ALL OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 06Z...THEN DRY REMAINDER
OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CNTRL STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DISAGREE IN HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR
STORM SYSTEM IN ALL ASPECTS RANGING FROM TROF ORIENTATION TO PROGGED
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AREAS. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS THE FASTEST AND 00Z GFS THE SLOWEST. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PRONOUNCED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SEEN FOR WEDNESDAY. THESE SW WINDS WILL LIKELY SEND THE
DRYLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD INTO EITHER THE ERN ZONES OR PERHAPS WRN
OK BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. FCSTG WHERE THIS DRYLINE BOUNDARY SITUATES
ITSELF DURG THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME AND IS BEST HANDLED AS TIME GETS CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO
RETAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10






000
FXUS64 KCRP 181741 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1241 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TERMINALS.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT ALI/VCT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY
MAKE INTO LRD LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. CRP SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK AND HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  81  65  80  68  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          57  82  63  81  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  66  85  68  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             59  84  64  82  66  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          64  76  66  80  67  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           59  86  63  84  66  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  82  67  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  78  68  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 181741 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1241 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TERMINALS.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT ALI/VCT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY
MAKE INTO LRD LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. CRP SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK AND HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  81  65  80  68  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          57  82  63  81  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  66  85  68  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             59  84  64  82  66  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          64  76  66  80  67  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           59  86  63  84  66  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  82  67  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  78  68  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 181741 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1241 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TERMINALS.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT ALI/VCT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY
MAKE INTO LRD LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. CRP SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK AND HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  81  65  80  68  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          57  82  63  81  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  66  85  68  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             59  84  64  82  66  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          64  76  66  80  67  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           59  86  63  84  66  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  82  67  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  78  68  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KCRP 181741 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1241 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL TERMINALS.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT ALI/VCT. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS MAY
MAKE INTO LRD LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. CRP SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK AND HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  81  65  80  68  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          57  82  63  81  65  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  86  66  85  68  /  20  20  20  20  20
ALICE             59  84  64  82  66  /  10  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          64  76  66  80  67  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           59  86  63  84  66  /  10  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        60  83  65  82  67  /  10  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       64  75  67  78  68  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION







000
FXUS64 KSJT 181739 CCA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1239 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

MVRF/IFR ceilings across the forecast area are expected to
become mostly MVRF flying conditions with periods of broken or
overcast low clouds above IFR ceiling this afternoon. A more
consistent. A low cloud ceiling and IFR or near IFR conditions are
expected to return to the forecast area by early morning
near Sonora, Junction, San Angelo and Brady airports.

Winds from the and northeast will remain mostly 10 knots or less
today weakening to 5 to 8 knots overnight with brief periods of
light and variable winds late night near Junction and Sonora. Wind
directions will shift slowly and blow from the southeast tonight
then increase to 12 to 18 knots from the south on Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
/|12Z TAFS/
MVFR/IFR ceilings expected across most TAF locations through at
least 15-17Z. Some light fog expected mainly over ABI and BBD
airports, as well.  Expect conditions to improve mid to late morning
as drier air mixes into the area. Will see low clouds develop again
toward sunrise Saturday. winds should remain light through the TAF
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest analysis shows a shortwave trough heading eastward across
Oklahoma and east Texas, with an upper low entering the southern
California coast. Weak isentropic lift over shallow cooler air at
the surface across west Texas is resulting in patchy fog and
widespread low clouds this morning across the area. Some light
drizzle may also be possible...but not expecting any measurable
precipitation. Clouds should dissipate by late morning as drier air
mixes down. Expecting afternoon highs to be a few degrees warmer
today than yesterday with a bit of afternoon sunshine and warmer 850
mb temperatures associated with weak ridge aloft. Low clouds should
again move in overnight with strong southeast low level flow,
keeping overnight temperatures mild in the 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this weekend, with the
best chance occurring Saturday night into Easter Sunday. Dry and
warm weather is expected next week.

A short wave trough will move across the Southern Rockies on
Saturday and into the Central and Southern Plains on Easter Sunday.
The main lift from this system will be affecting the area Saturday
night and Sunday and this is when rain chances will be highest
across West Central Texas. On Saturday, mainly looking at a dry
forecast with partly to mostly cloudy skies. POP`s were scaled back
on Saturday as upper level support will be lacking. Going with a dry
forecast for most areas, with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms across far western counties, mainly during the
afternoon hours. Expect afternoon highs in the middle and upper
70s.

Large scale ascent will increase across the area Saturday night into
Easter Sunday as the short wave enters the Plains. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms should develop to our west during the
evening hours, spreading east across the area after midnight.
Thunderstorms may become more organized across the area on Easter
Sunday as a dryline mixes east to our western border by afternoon.
Models show moderate instability developing east of the dryline
during the afternoon hours (CAPES around 2000 J/KG) as temperatures
warm into the lower 80s, with deep layer shear between 30 and 40 KT.
Not expecting widespread severe weather on Sunday, but a few
supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds cannot
be ruled out during the afternoon and early evening hours.

A weak cold front approaches from the north Sunday night. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along the front, mainly after
midnight across northern sections and will maintain highest POP`s
(30 percent) across the Big Country. The front is expected to stall
across southeast sections on Monday, before moving south across the
area Monday evening. Models are hinting at possible convection along
the front Monday afternoon but with the trough axis east of the
area, will maintain a dry forecast at this time.

Short wave ridging will develop across the Plain through mid week
as an amplified upper level trough moves into the western CONUS
and across the Rockies. Dry and warmer weather is expected through
Thursday but will need to keep and eye on possible dryline
convection developing by mid week. Due to model differences with
the upper level pattern, will maintain a dry forecast through
Thursday. Expect above normal temperatures through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  55  77  59  78  61 /   5  10  30  30  20
San Angelo  56  79  59  80  61 /   5  20  40  30  20
Junction  56  78  59  79  63 /   5  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99








000
FXUS64 KHGX 181726
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1226 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST ATTM. CURRENT TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK.
41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  58  80  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  59  80  60  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  65  76  64  77 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLUB 181720
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CIGS AT LBB HAVE RISEN TO VFR WHILE CIGS AT CDS HAVE RISEN TO LOW
END MVFR BY 17Z. CIGS AT CDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS LOW
STRATUS MOVES EASTWARD. A HIGH BROKEN CLOUD LAYER AROUND 30 KFT
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW LEVEL
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. BETWEEN 12Z TO 18Z TOMORROW CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO LOWER STARTING AT LBB FIRST BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM NM
INTO WEST TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE WEST OF BOTH
TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT BUT MOIST EASTERLIES HAD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF
3AM COMPLETE WITH ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS. DEPTH OF THIS STRATUS IS
QUITE SHALLOW...SO WE STILL EXPECT INSOLATION TO DO ITS JOB AND
ERODE THIS COMPLETELY BY LATE MORNING. BIGGEST EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THIS SATURATED DEPTH IS
DEEPER AND ALSO WINDS HERE WILL BE DELAYED IN VEERING SOUTH
COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER WEST. WHAT FOG HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP
THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN PROBLEMATIC...BUT UNTIL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
RISE BY MID-MORNING WE/LL KEEP PATCHY FOG MENTION INTACT AREA
WIDE.

BY MIDDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED ATOP THE SOUTH
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SOON TO
SET ITS SIGHTS ON THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE IS ALREADY
TRENDING A BIT DIRTY FROM A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS THAT
SHOULD REACH OUR DOORSTEP THIS AFTERNOON. ADD TO THIS MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPRESSING MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.

ONLY CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO NIX THE MENTION
OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES. LARGELY
MERIDIONAL PRESENTATION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT CERTAINLY POINT TO A DELAYED ONSET OF HEIGHT FALLS AND
DEEPER SATURATION NECESSARY FOR PRECIP.

LONG TERM...
MODEL DATA FROM TONIGHT PAINT A COMPLICATED PICTURE FOR RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND THERE WERE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL HAVE A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
OPENING UP INTO A DEEP TROF AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE EJECT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROF AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-DAY. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE MAIN TROF PASSING OVER THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE...FINALLY PASSING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES HAS CHANGED THE TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE AS WELL. SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY
THOUGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
STARTED OFF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. AS
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
BUT KEEP THE ROLLING PLAINS UNDER A STRONG CAP. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE IN AS CAP
STRENGTH IS WEAKER CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROF. ALL THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS PLAY OUT THIS SCENARIO AND THE DETERMINISTIC TTU WRF HAS
ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HOWEVER ARE
SOMEWHAT LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT STILL FAVOR
A PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL THIS LENDS
TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AND OPTED TO REDUCE POPS BY
10 PERCENT IN THE PEAK TIME FRAME OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO BE IN RECOVERY MODE FROM THE RAIN ON SATURDAY WHICH
PREVENTS MUCH FROM DEVELOPING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH TOWARDS AND THEN OVER THE REGION.
MODELS GENERATE A MORE OPTIMISTIC 1000 J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS MAINLY DUE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED HEATING COMPARED TO WHAT THE MODELS ARE HOPING FOR.
MODERATE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT POSSIBLY HELPING IN SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT BY
ERODING THE CAP SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING. PUTTING THIS ALL
TOGETHER MEANS SUNDAY WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR PRECIP WHILE A BIT OF DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROF
AND REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WEAK DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS
LIFT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL AND HAVE KEPT
LOW- END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE TROF
AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO
MIX EAST THROUGH THE DAY...LEFT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ANY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE TROF MAY
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE IF MODELS START TO REFLECT A SLOWER TROF
PROGRESSION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF FOR MONDAY
WHICH WILL MAINLY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT IS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO PUSH IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 40 DEG F IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE AND WE START TO SEE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A BROAD TROF WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK AND WE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP REDEVELOP THE LEE SURFACE TROF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHARPEN UP THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STORMS AS A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND MODELS SHOW NO
PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS REALLY START TO DIFFER. ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY THE TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS OUT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE TROF AND THEN SWINGS IT OUT A FULL DAY TO
DAY AND A HALF LATER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A MORE
WINDY/DUSTY DAY FOR THURSDAY. TOO MANY DIFFERENCES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS OF THE FORECAST TO WARRANT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS THIS
TIME BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE DRYLINE...
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP OUR EYE ON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  49  75  49  75 /   0   0  30  30  20
TULIA         71  51  76  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     70  52  77  53  79 /   0   0  20  30  20
LEVELLAND     72  53  77  54  79 /   0   0  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       71  53  79  55  80 /   0   0  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   73  55  76  54  80 /   0  10  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    72  54  76  54  80 /   0  10  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     70  52  79  56  81 /   0   0  10  30  30
SPUR          73  53  78  57  83 /   0   0  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     73  55  78  60  83 /   0   0  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33/51









000
FXUS64 KBRO 181720
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1220 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO BE SET UP ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH LIGHT RAIN BEING FUNNELED INTO THE
LOWER VALLEY VIA NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. CIGS ARE ON THE
SLOW RISE TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER THIS LIGHT RAIN
CAUSES REDUCTIONS BACK TO AROUND 1500 FEET OR SO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MULTILAYERED LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS BLANKET THE
ENTIRE AREA AND EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR
QUITE SOME TIME. BELIEVE KBRO AND KHRL WILL GET TO VFR AND STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SREF LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWS A GOOD
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KMFE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...KMFE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...NEW MODEL DATA SUGGESTS IFR/LOW MVFR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AT THE TAF SITES THEN SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS AFT 16Z THEN POSSIBLY SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR BY 22Z. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE BRO AND HRL AERODROMES HAS
DISSIPATED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A DECK AROUND 8K FEET. THIS
TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE MFE AERODROME DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WAS
THE INDICATION THAT SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WOULD DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS MID- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO
MOVES THE CLOUDS IN FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE BRO CWFA. LOW CLOUDINESS
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...AND BETWEEN 1K AND 2500 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF.

TODAY...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE WILL
PRODUCE CONTINUED ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S APPEARED REASONABLE AND
WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...ESPECIALLY SINCE OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF FORECAST
THINNING/PARTIAL CLEARING OF CLOUDINESS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS DOES
NOT OCCUR OR IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN A
GREATER ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL DISSIPATE THE INVERTED COASTAL TROUGHINESS...
THEREBY ENDING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL ALSO BE
AIDED BY AN INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. CLOUDINESS FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
BACK INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED
OVER THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB HIGH WILL
CARRY OVER THE DRY WEATHER INTO THE DAYTIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED FRIDAY HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO THE BRO CWFA.

LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS REGION WILL EXIT THE REGION AND
MOVE EASTWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL SURGE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
CWA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY BUT WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS NOT HAVING
A BIG SHIFT IN WINDS OR TEMPERATURES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MIDDLE VALLEY WHILE THE WEST
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH TUESDAY.

IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT...SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZE TO WINDY
THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM
THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS
AROUND 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SMALL CRAFT WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO SEAS. IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS UP TO 5 FEET SUNDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 2 TO 4 FEET FOR
FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS DUE TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
BREEZE INTO THURSDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO HINT ON A DEEPER
LOW...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FOR WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6
FEET WITH SCEC CONDITIONS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55






000
FXUS64 KMAF 181714
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS is lifting across the area and all sites should be
VFR within the next couple of hours. Afterward VFR conditions will
remain through most of the period, though there is uncertainty
around 12Z when models are showing an increase in low level
moisture which may result in a return of MVFR CIGs. However will
not place in the TAFs at this time due to increasing mid and upper
level clouds and showers/T-storms moving in from the west late in
the TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR cigs have moved into TAF locations overnight. These cigs
will slowly lift during the morning hours before finally
dissipating by early afternoon. Increasing mid and high level
cloudiness is anticipated across the area through the period.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible..mainly west of the Pecos
River after 19/0000z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today will be similar to those from yesterday as
surface winds become southeasterly by this afternoon.  These winds
will bring an increase in low-level moisture.  An upper level trough
over southern California is approaching the region with shortwaves
moving over the area.  This increase in moisture and lift will
contribute to showers developing across the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos this morning and thunderstorms developing
across the higher terrain later this afternoon.  Showers and
thunderstorms will spread eastward across the CWA on Saturday as the
upper trough gets closer.  The upper level trough will approach and
pass over the Southern Plains on Sunday with rain lingering across
the area.  There will be areas with CAPE values of over 1000 J/kg
and 0-6 km bulk shear will be near 50 kts so a strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon across the Lower Trans
Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.

On Monday, the upper level trough will move to the east of the
region with the precipitation moving out of the area as well.  A
cold front will move into the area on Monday on the backside of the
upper trough but this front will not have much impact on
temperatures as highs warm to above average.  Temperatures will
gradually increase through the middle of next week with upper level
ridging developing over the region.  Another upper trough is
expected to approach the Central/Northern Plains with a dryline
possibly developing across the CWA on Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KMAF 181714
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS is lifting across the area and all sites should be
VFR within the next couple of hours. Afterward VFR conditions will
remain through most of the period, though there is uncertainty
around 12Z when models are showing an increase in low level
moisture which may result in a return of MVFR CIGs. However will
not place in the TAFs at this time due to increasing mid and upper
level clouds and showers/T-storms moving in from the west late in
the TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR cigs have moved into TAF locations overnight. These cigs
will slowly lift during the morning hours before finally
dissipating by early afternoon. Increasing mid and high level
cloudiness is anticipated across the area through the period.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible..mainly west of the Pecos
River after 19/0000z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today will be similar to those from yesterday as
surface winds become southeasterly by this afternoon.  These winds
will bring an increase in low-level moisture.  An upper level trough
over southern California is approaching the region with shortwaves
moving over the area.  This increase in moisture and lift will
contribute to showers developing across the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos this morning and thunderstorms developing
across the higher terrain later this afternoon.  Showers and
thunderstorms will spread eastward across the CWA on Saturday as the
upper trough gets closer.  The upper level trough will approach and
pass over the Southern Plains on Sunday with rain lingering across
the area.  There will be areas with CAPE values of over 1000 J/kg
and 0-6 km bulk shear will be near 50 kts so a strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon across the Lower Trans
Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.

On Monday, the upper level trough will move to the east of the
region with the precipitation moving out of the area as well.  A
cold front will move into the area on Monday on the backside of the
upper trough but this front will not have much impact on
temperatures as highs warm to above average.  Temperatures will
gradually increase through the middle of next week with upper level
ridging developing over the region.  Another upper trough is
expected to approach the Central/Northern Plains with a dryline
possibly developing across the CWA on Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KMAF 181714
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS is lifting across the area and all sites should be
VFR within the next couple of hours. Afterward VFR conditions will
remain through most of the period, though there is uncertainty
around 12Z when models are showing an increase in low level
moisture which may result in a return of MVFR CIGs. However will
not place in the TAFs at this time due to increasing mid and upper
level clouds and showers/T-storms moving in from the west late in
the TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR cigs have moved into TAF locations overnight. These cigs
will slowly lift during the morning hours before finally
dissipating by early afternoon. Increasing mid and high level
cloudiness is anticipated across the area through the period.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible..mainly west of the Pecos
River after 19/0000z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today will be similar to those from yesterday as
surface winds become southeasterly by this afternoon.  These winds
will bring an increase in low-level moisture.  An upper level trough
over southern California is approaching the region with shortwaves
moving over the area.  This increase in moisture and lift will
contribute to showers developing across the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos this morning and thunderstorms developing
across the higher terrain later this afternoon.  Showers and
thunderstorms will spread eastward across the CWA on Saturday as the
upper trough gets closer.  The upper level trough will approach and
pass over the Southern Plains on Sunday with rain lingering across
the area.  There will be areas with CAPE values of over 1000 J/kg
and 0-6 km bulk shear will be near 50 kts so a strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon across the Lower Trans
Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.

On Monday, the upper level trough will move to the east of the
region with the precipitation moving out of the area as well.  A
cold front will move into the area on Monday on the backside of the
upper trough but this front will not have much impact on
temperatures as highs warm to above average.  Temperatures will
gradually increase through the middle of next week with upper level
ridging developing over the region.  Another upper trough is
expected to approach the Central/Northern Plains with a dryline
possibly developing across the CWA on Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KMAF 181714
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS is lifting across the area and all sites should be
VFR within the next couple of hours. Afterward VFR conditions will
remain through most of the period, though there is uncertainty
around 12Z when models are showing an increase in low level
moisture which may result in a return of MVFR CIGs. However will
not place in the TAFs at this time due to increasing mid and upper
level clouds and showers/T-storms moving in from the west late in
the TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR cigs have moved into TAF locations overnight. These cigs
will slowly lift during the morning hours before finally
dissipating by early afternoon. Increasing mid and high level
cloudiness is anticipated across the area through the period.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible..mainly west of the Pecos
River after 19/0000z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today will be similar to those from yesterday as
surface winds become southeasterly by this afternoon.  These winds
will bring an increase in low-level moisture.  An upper level trough
over southern California is approaching the region with shortwaves
moving over the area.  This increase in moisture and lift will
contribute to showers developing across the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos this morning and thunderstorms developing
across the higher terrain later this afternoon.  Showers and
thunderstorms will spread eastward across the CWA on Saturday as the
upper trough gets closer.  The upper level trough will approach and
pass over the Southern Plains on Sunday with rain lingering across
the area.  There will be areas with CAPE values of over 1000 J/kg
and 0-6 km bulk shear will be near 50 kts so a strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon across the Lower Trans
Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.

On Monday, the upper level trough will move to the east of the
region with the precipitation moving out of the area as well.  A
cold front will move into the area on Monday on the backside of the
upper trough but this front will not have much impact on
temperatures as highs warm to above average.  Temperatures will
gradually increase through the middle of next week with upper level
ridging developing over the region.  Another upper trough is
expected to approach the Central/Northern Plains with a dryline
possibly developing across the CWA on Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KSJT 181656
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1156 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014



.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

MVRF/IFR ceilings across the forecast area are expected to
become mostly MVRF flying conditions with periods of broken or
overcast low clouds above IFR ceiling this afternoon. A more
consistent. A low cloud ceiling and IFR or near IFR conditions are
expected to return to the forecast area by early morning
near Sonora, Junction, San Angelo and Brady airports.

Winds from the and northeast will remain mostly 10 knots or less
today weakening to 5 to 8 knots overnight with brief periods of
light and variable winds late night near Junction and Sonora. Wind
directions will shift slowly and blow from the southeast tonight
then increase to 12 to 18 knots from the south on Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
/|12Z TAFS/
MVFR/IFR ceilings expected across most TAF locations through at
least 15-17Z. Some light fog expected mainly over ABI and BBD
airports, as well.  Expect conditions to improve mid to late morning
as drier air mixes into the area. Will see low clouds develop again
toward sunrise Saturday. winds should remain light through the TAF
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest analysis shows a shortwave trough heading eastward across
Oklahoma and east Texas, with an upper low entering the southern
California coast. Weak isentropic lift over shallow cooler air at
the surface across west Texas is resulting in patchy fog and
widespread low clouds this morning across the area. Some light
drizzle may also be possible...but not expecting any measurable
precipitation. Clouds should dissipate by late morning as drier air
mixes down. Expecting afternoon highs to be a few degrees warmer
today than yesterday with a bit of afternoon sunshine and warmer 850
mb temperatures associated with weak ridge aloft. Low clouds should
again move in overnight with strong southeast low level flow,
keeping overnight temperatures mild in the 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this weekend, with the
best chance occurring Saturday night into Easter Sunday. Dry and
warm weather is expected next week.

A short wave trough will move across the Southern Rockies on
Saturday and into the Central and Southern Plains on Easter Sunday.
The main lift from this system will be affecting the area Saturday
night and Sunday and this is when rain chances will be highest
across West Central Texas. On Saturday, mainly looking at a dry
forecast with partly to mostly cloudy skies. POP`s were scaled back
on Saturday as upper level support will be lacking. Going with a dry
forecast for most areas, with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms across far western counties, mainly during the
afternoon hours. Expect afternoon highs in the middle and upper
70s.

Large scale ascent will increase across the area Saturday night into
Easter Sunday as the short wave enters the Plains. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms should develop to our west during the
evening hours, spreading east across the area after midnight.
Thunderstorms may become more organized across the area on Easter
Sunday as a dryline mixes east to our western border by afternoon.
Models show moderate instability developing east of the dryline
during the afternoon hours (CAPES around 2000 J/KG) as temperatures
warm into the lower 80s, with deep layer shear between 30 and 40 KT.
Not expecting widespread severe weather on Sunday, but a few
supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds cannot
be ruled out during the afternoon and early evening hours.

A weak cold front approaches from the north Sunday night. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along the front, mainly after
midnight across northern sections and will maintain highest POP`s
(30 percent) across the Big Country. The front is expected to stall
across southeast sections on Monday, before moving south across the
area Monday evening. Models are hinting at possible convection along
the front Monday afternoon but with the trough axis east of the
area, will maintain a dry forecast at this time.

Short wave ridging will develop across the Plain through mid week
as an amplified upper level trough moves into the western CONUS
and across the Rockies. Dry and warmer weather is expected through
Thursday but will need to keep and eye on possible dryline
convection developing by mid week. Due to model differences with
the upper level pattern, will maintain a dry forecast through
Thursday. Expect above normal temperatures through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  55  77  59  78  61 /   5  10  30  30  20
San Angelo  56  79  59  80  61 /   5  20  40  30  20
Junction  56  78  59  79  63 /   5  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KHGX 181632
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1132 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST ATTM. CURRENT TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK.
41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY AS SOME
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AN ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. RAIN WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. OVERALL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH NOT MUCH RAINFALL. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  58  80  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  59  80  60  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  65  76  64  77 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41




000
FXUS64 KCRP 181616 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1116 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK AND HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  81  65  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          82  57  82  63  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84  64  86  66  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  59  84  64  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          75  64  76  66  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  59  86  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  65  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  75  67  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 181616 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1116 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK AND HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  81  65  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          82  57  82  63  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84  64  86  66  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  59  84  64  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          75  64  76  66  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  59  86  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  65  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  75  67  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 181616 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1116 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK AND HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  81  65  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          82  57  82  63  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84  64  86  66  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  59  84  64  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          75  64  76  66  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  59  86  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  65  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  75  67  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 181616 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1116 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THIN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TRACK AND HIGHS TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  81  65  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          82  57  82  63  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84  64  86  66  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  59  84  64  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          75  64  76  66  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  59  86  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  65  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  75  67  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KFWD 181556
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1056 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF SURFACE HEATING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL...BUT WE WILL SOME
MINOR HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG /3-5SM/ CONTINUE AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES AS
OF 1130Z. EXPECT THIS FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 15Z. LOWER END VFR
CEILINGS /3500-4500 FEET/ AT THE METROPLEX WILL BREAKUP FROM THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z AT
WACO. LIGHT NORTH WINDS AT DAYBREAK WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BY 15Z
AND EAST BY 18Z AND SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z.

58


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IS
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WANES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A
GRADUAL TOP DOWN DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. COMPACT BUT STRONG
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
AND WILL LEAVE SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE AIDING IN SCATTERING OUT THE
CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AN
IMPRESSIVE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS RESULTING IN A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY SATURDAY EVENING
WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING INTO WEST TEXAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING BY
LATE SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS WEST TEXAS BUT IT IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT THESE WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY OF OUR
AREA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A STRONG SURGE OF MID LEVEL
HIGH THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS. THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL HAVE 20 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON SUNDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE WILL BE
CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA SO THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW AT BEST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY LEAVING NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS /WEAK FRONT/
MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DURING THIS TIME AND THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.
WITH AMPLE AFTERNOON HEATING AND MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...AT
LEAST A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES APPEARING TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WILL HAVE SOME LOW
POPS IN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE
GIVEN THE AMPLE INSTABILITY.

WEAK RIDGING AGAIN PASSES BY ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. BY MIDWEEK. IT APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE WED/THU AFTERNOONS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  57  79  61  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
WACO, TX              74  52  79  59  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
PARIS, TX             73  53  76  57  77 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            72  55  78  59  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  54  78  58  78 /  10   5   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            74  58  79  61  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
TERRELL, TX           74  54  77  58  77 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  55  80  59  78 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  53  79  58  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  53  78  58  78 /  10   5   5  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/79






000
FXUS64 KEWX 181512 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1012 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOG AND DRIZZLE HAVE MOSTLY LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION. THIS WEAK DRYING WILL ENABLE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILD BUT SEASONABLE...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. ONGOING FORECAST IS OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THIS MORNING ALONG WITH FOG AND LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER
15Z BACK TO MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO END. AFTER 18Z
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT BETWEEN 09Z-11Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EAST AND NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER
15Z. WILL SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WANE THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AT MID-LEVELS. THE RESULT WILL BE PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE THROUGH MID-MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT...CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS 5F OR SO WARMER THAN THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE WEAK RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE GENERAL ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SPUTTERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN BITS AND PIECES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. DECIDED TO SHOTGUN 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN REFOCUS 20 POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT...
SOME LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MANY WILL ONLY RECEIVE 1/10
INCH OR LESS. ONE OR TWO SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY SEE
ONE INCH FROM ISOLATED...STRONGER STORMS.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR POPS TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY IN THE FAR WEST (MEXICAN MOUNTAINS) OR
FAR EAST (STREAMER SHOWERS) TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THAT
SAID...WITH FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW AND NO SURFACE BOUNDARIES...
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT. THERE WILL BE SOME
WARMING NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF ON
THURSDAY...AND ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST NEXT FRIDAY. THE
HEAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...SO WILL
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE FOR NEXT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  57  80  60  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  54  80  57  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     78  57  81  58  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  56  78  59  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  62  80  64  81 /  10  20  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  56  79  59  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             80  59  82  62  81 /  10  -   20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  56  80  58  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  57  79  58  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  58  82  61  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  59  82  61  81 /  10  -   10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25






000
FXUS64 KBRO 181428
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
928 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...NEW MODEL DATA SUGGESTS IFR/LOW MVFR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AT THE TAF SITES THEN SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS AFT 16Z THEN POSSIBLY SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR BY 22Z. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE BRO AND HRL AERODROMES HAS
DISSIPATED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A DECK AROUND 8K FEET. THIS
TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE MFE AERODROME DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WAS
THE INDICATION THAT SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WOULD DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS MID- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO
MOVES THE CLOUDS IN FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE BRO CWFA. LOW CLOUDINESS
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...AND BETWEEN 1K AND 2500 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF.

TODAY...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE WILL
PRODUCE CONTINUED ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S APPEARED REASONABLE AND
WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...ESPECIALLY SINCE OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF FORECAST
THINNING/PARTIAL CLEARING OF CLOUDINESS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS DOES
NOT OCCUR OR IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN A
GREATER ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL DISSIPATE THE INVERTED COASTAL TROUGHINESS...
THEREBY ENDING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL ALSO BE
AIDED BY AN INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. CLOUDINESS FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
BACK INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED
OVER THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB HIGH WILL
CARRY OVER THE DRY WEATHER INTO THE DAYTIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED FRIDAY HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO THE BRO CWFA.

LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS REGION WILL EXIT THE REGION AND
MOVE EASTWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL SURGE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
CWA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY BUT WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS NOT HAVING
A BIG SHIFT IN WINDS OR TEMPERATURES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MIDDLE VALLEY WHILE THE WEST
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH TUESDAY.

IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT...SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZE TO WINDY
THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM
THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS
AROUND 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SMALL CRAFT WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO SEAS. IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS UP TO 5 FEET SUNDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 2 TO 4 FEET FOR
FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS DUE TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
BREEZE INTO THURSDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO HINT ON A DEEPER
LOW...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FOR WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6
FEET WITH SCEC CONDITIONS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

55







000
FXUS64 KAMA 181145 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
645 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ LIGHT GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN AREAS OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WITH CIGS AND VISBYS IN THE MVFR RANGE. CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING WHILE SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT AROUND 15 KTS THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH CLOUDS START TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY.

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL IMPACT THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN SUCH THAT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY AND FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR
TONIGHT FOR WRN TX PNHDL AND THEN REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORWTAVE TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE RETAINED SLGT
CHC TO CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REORIENTED THEM SUNDAY TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE FCST AREA WITH SLGT CHC VALUES WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS...AND CHC POPS ERN ZONES. PRECIP TYPE THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS SOME PRECIP INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE INSERTED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR ALL OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 06Z...THEN DRY REMAINDER
OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CNTRL STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DISAGREE IN HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR
STORM SYSTEM IN ALL ASPECTS RANGING FROM TROF ORIENTATION TO PROGGED
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AREAS. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS THE FASTEST AND 00Z GFS THE SLOWEST. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PRONOUNCED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SEEN FOR WEDNESDAY. THESE SW WINDS WILL LIKELY SEND THE
DRYLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD INTO EITHER THE ERN ZONES OR PERHAPS WRN
OK BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. FCSTG WHERE THIS DRYLINE BOUNDARY SITUATES
ITSELF DURG THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME AND IS BEST HANDLED AS TIME GETS CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO
RETAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 181145 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
645 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ LIGHT GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN AREAS OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...WITH CIGS AND VISBYS IN THE MVFR RANGE. CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING WHILE SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT AROUND 15 KTS THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH CLOUDS START TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY.

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL IMPACT THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN SUCH THAT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY AND FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR
TONIGHT FOR WRN TX PNHDL AND THEN REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORWTAVE TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE RETAINED SLGT
CHC TO CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REORIENTED THEM SUNDAY TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE FCST AREA WITH SLGT CHC VALUES WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS...AND CHC POPS ERN ZONES. PRECIP TYPE THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS SOME PRECIP INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE INSERTED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR ALL OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 06Z...THEN DRY REMAINDER
OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CNTRL STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DISAGREE IN HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR
STORM SYSTEM IN ALL ASPECTS RANGING FROM TROF ORIENTATION TO PROGGED
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AREAS. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS THE FASTEST AND 00Z GFS THE SLOWEST. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PRONOUNCED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SEEN FOR WEDNESDAY. THESE SW WINDS WILL LIKELY SEND THE
DRYLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD INTO EITHER THE ERN ZONES OR PERHAPS WRN
OK BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. FCSTG WHERE THIS DRYLINE BOUNDARY SITUATES
ITSELF DURG THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME AND IS BEST HANDLED AS TIME GETS CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO
RETAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KEWX 181142 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THIS MORNING ALONG WITH FOG AND LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER
15Z BACK TO MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO END. AFTER 18Z
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT BETWEEN 09Z-11Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EAST AND NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER
15Z. WILL SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WANE THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AT MID-LEVELS. THE RESULT WILL BE PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE THROUGH MID-MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT...CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS 5F OR SO WARMER THAN THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE WEAK RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE GENERAL ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SPUTTERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN BITS AND PIECES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. DECIDED TO SHOTGUN 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN REFOCUS 20 POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT...
SOME LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MANY WILL ONLY RECEIVE 1/10
INCH OR LESS. ONE OR TWO SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY SEE
ONE INCH FROM ISOLATED...STRONGER STORMS.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR POPS TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY IN THE FAR WEST (MEXICAN MOUNTAINS) OR
FAR EAST (STREAMER SHOWERS) TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THAT
SAID...WITH FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW AND NO SURFACE BOUNDARIES...
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT. THERE WILL BE SOME
WARMING NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF ON
THURSDAY...AND ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST NEXT FRIDAY. THE
HEAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...SO WILL
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE FOR NEXT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  57  80  60  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  54  80  57  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     78  57  81  58  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  56  78  59  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  62  80  64  81 /  10  20  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  56  79  59  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             80  59  82  62  81 /  10  -   20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  56  80  58  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  57  79  58  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  58  82  61  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  59  82  61  81 /  10  -   10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26






000
FXUS64 KCRP 181137
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  81  65  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          82  57  82  63  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84  64  86  66  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  59  84  64  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          75  64  76  66  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  59  86  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  65  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  75  67  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 181137
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  81  65  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          82  57  82  63  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84  64  86  66  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  59  84  64  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          75  64  76  66  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  59  86  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  65  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  75  67  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 181137
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  81  65  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          82  57  82  63  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84  64  86  66  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  59  84  64  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          75  64  76  66  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  59  86  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  65  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  75  67  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 181137
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
637 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTN HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR AREAWIDE DRG THE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. LGT/MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMING EAST
BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. WIND BECOMING LGT SOUTH/VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG 09-12Z SATURDAY GENERALLY WEST OF
U.S. 77 AND EAST OF U.S. 281.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  81  65  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          82  57  82  63  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84  64  86  66  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  59  84  64  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          75  64  76  66  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  59  86  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  65  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  75  67  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KFWD 181134 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
634 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG /3-5SM/ CONTINUE AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES AS
OF 1130Z. EXPECT THIS FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 15Z. LOWER END VFR
CEILINGS /3500-4500 FEET/ AT THE METROPLEX WILL BREAKUP FROM THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z AT
WACO. LIGHT NORTH WINDS AT DAYBREAK WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BY 15Z
AND EAST BY 18Z AND SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IS
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WANES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A
GRADUAL TOP DOWN DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. COMPACT BUT STRONG
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
AND WILL LEAVE SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE AIDING IN SCATTERING OUT THE
CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AN
IMPRESSIVE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS RESULTING IN A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY SATURDAY EVENING
WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING INTO WEST TEXAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING BY
LATE SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS WEST TEXAS BUT IT IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT THESE WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY OF OUR
AREA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A STRONG SURGE OF MID LEVEL
HIGH THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS. THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL HAVE 20 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON SUNDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE WILL BE
CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA SO THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW AT BEST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY LEAVING NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS /WEAK FRONT/
MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DURING THIS TIME AND THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.
WITH AMPLE AFTERNOON HEATING AND MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...AT
LEAST A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES APPEARING TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WILL HAVE SOME LOW
POPS IN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE
GIVEN THE AMPLE INSTABILITY.

WEAK RIDGING AGAIN PASSES BY ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. BY MIDWEEK. IT APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE WED/THU AFTERNOONS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  57  79  61  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
WACO, TX              74  52  79  59  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
PARIS, TX             73  53  76  57  77 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            72  55  78  59  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  54  78  58  78 /  10   5   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            74  58  79  61  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
TERRELL, TX           74  54  77  58  77 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  55  80  59  78 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  53  79  58  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  53  78  58  78 /  10   5   5  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/92







000
FXUS64 KSJT 181134
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
628 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
/|12Z TAFS/
MVFR/IFR ceilings expected across most TAF locations through at
least 15-17Z. Some light fog expected mainly over ABI and BBD
airports, as well.  Expect conditions to improve mid to late morning
as drier air mixes into the area. Will see low clouds develop again
toward sunrise Saturday. winds should remain light through the TAF
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest analysis shows a shortwave trough heading eastward across
Oklahoma and east Texas, with an upper low entering the southern
California coast. Weak isentropic lift over shallow cooler air at
the surface across west Texas is resulting in patchy fog and
widespread low clouds this morning across the area. Some light
drizzle may also be possible...but not expecting any measurable
precipitation. Clouds should dissipate by late morning as drier air
mixes down. Expecting afternoon highs to be a few degrees warmer
today than yesterday with a bit of afternoon sunshine and warmer 850
mb temperatures associated with weak ridge aloft. Low clouds should
again move in overnight with strong southeast low level flow,
keeping overnight temperatures mild in the 50s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this weekend, with the
best chance occurring Saturday night into Easter Sunday. Dry and
warm weather is expected next week.

A short wave trough will move across the Southern Rockies on
Saturday and into the Central and Southern Plains on Easter Sunday.
The main lift from this system will be affecting the area Saturday
night and Sunday and this is when rain chances will be highest
across West Central Texas. On Saturday, mainly looking at a dry
forecast with partly to mostly cloudy skies. POP`s were scaled back
on Saturday as upper level support will be lacking. Going with a dry
forecast for most areas, with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms across far western counties, mainly during the
afternoon hours. Expect afternoon highs in the middle and upper
70s.

Large scale ascent will increase across the area Saturday night into
Easter Sunday as the short wave enters the Plains. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms should develop to our west during the
evening hours, spreading east across the area after midnight.
Thunderstorms may become more organized across the area on Easter
Sunday as a dryline mixes east to our western border by afternoon.
Models show moderate instability developing east of the dryline
during the afternoon hours (CAPES around 2000 J/KG) as temperatures
warm into the lower 80s, with deep layer shear between 30 and 40 KT.
Not expecting widespread severe weather on Sunday, but a few
supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds cannot
be ruled out during the afternoon and early evening hours.

A weak cold front approaches from the north Sunday night. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along the front, mainly after
midnight across northern sections and will maintain highest POP`s
(30 percent) across the Big Country. The front is expected to stall
across southeast sections on Monday, before moving south across the
area Monday evening. Models are hinting at possible convection along
the front Monday afternoon but with the trough axis east of the
area, will maintain a dry forecast at this time.

Short wave ridging will develop across the Plain through mid week
as an amplified upper level trough moves into the western CONUS
and across the Rockies. Dry and warmer weather is expected through
Thursday but will need to keep and eye on possible dryline
convection developing by mid week. Due to model differences with
the upper level pattern, will maintain a dry forecast through
Thursday. Expect above normal temperatures through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  55  77  59  78 /  10   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  76  56  79  59  80 /  10   5  20  40  30
Junction  77  56  78  59  79 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08






000
FXUS64 KBRO 181128
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
628 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE BRO AND HRL AERODROMES HAS
DISSIPATED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A DECK AROUND 8K FEET. THIS
TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE MFE AERODROME DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WAS
THE INDICATION THAT SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WOULD DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS MID- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO
MOVES THE CLOUDS IN FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE BRO CWFA. LOW CLOUDINESS
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...AND BETWEEN 1K AND 2500 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF.

TODAY...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE WILL
PRODUCE CONTINUED ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S APPEARED REASONABLE AND
WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...ESPECIALLY SINCE OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF FORECAST
THINNING/PARTIAL CLEARING OF CLOUDINESS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS DOES
NOT OCCUR OR IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN A
GREATER ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL DISSIPATE THE INVERTED COASTAL TROUGHINESS...
THEREBY ENDING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL ALSO BE
AIDED BY AN INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. CLOUDINESS FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
BACK INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED
OVER THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB HIGH WILL
CARRY OVER THE DRY WEATHER INTO THE DAYTIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED FRIDAY HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO THE BRO CWFA.

LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS REGION WILL EXIT THE REGION AND
MOVE EASTWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL SURGE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
CWA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY BUT WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS NOT HAVING
A BIG SHIFT IN WINDS OR TEMPERATURES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MIDDLE VALLEY WHILE THE WEST
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH TUESDAY.

IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT...SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZE TO WINDY
THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM
THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS
AROUND 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SMALL CRAFT WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO SEAS. IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS UP TO 5 FEET SUNDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 2 TO 4 FEET FOR
FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS DUE TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
BREEZE INTO THURSDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO HINT ON A DEEPER
LOW...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FOR WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6
FEET WITH SCEC CONDITIONS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66






000
FXUS64 KMAF 181126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR cigs have moved into TAF locations overnight. These cigs
will slowly lift during the morning hours before finally
dissipating by early afternoon. Increasing mid and high level
cloudiness is anticipated across the area through the period.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible..mainly west of the Pecos
River after 19/0000z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today will be similar to those from yesterday as
surface winds become southeasterly by this afternoon.  These winds
will bring an increase in low-level moisture.  An upper level trough
over southern California is approaching the region with shortwaves
moving over the area.  This increase in moisture and lift will
contribute to showers developing across the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos this morning and thunderstorms developing
across the higher terrain later this afternoon.  Showers and
thunderstorms will spread eastward across the CWA on Saturday as the
upper trough gets closer.  The upper level trough will approach and
pass over the Southern Plains on Sunday with rain lingering across
the area.  There will be areas with CAPE values of over 1000 J/kg
and 0-6 km bulk shear will be near 50 kts so a strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon across the Lower Trans
Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.

On Monday, the upper level trough will move to the east of the
region with the precipitation moving out of the area as well.  A
cold front will move into the area on Monday on the backside of the
upper trough but this front will not have much impact on
temperatures as highs warm to above average.  Temperatures will
gradually increase through the middle of next week with upper level
ridging developing over the region.  Another upper trough is
expected to approach the Central/Northern Plains with a dryline
possibly developing across the CWA on Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03





000
FXUS64 KMAF 181126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR cigs have moved into TAF locations overnight. These cigs
will slowly lift during the morning hours before finally
dissipating by early afternoon. Increasing mid and high level
cloudiness is anticipated across the area through the period.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible..mainly west of the Pecos
River after 19/0000z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today will be similar to those from yesterday as
surface winds become southeasterly by this afternoon.  These winds
will bring an increase in low-level moisture.  An upper level trough
over southern California is approaching the region with shortwaves
moving over the area.  This increase in moisture and lift will
contribute to showers developing across the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos this morning and thunderstorms developing
across the higher terrain later this afternoon.  Showers and
thunderstorms will spread eastward across the CWA on Saturday as the
upper trough gets closer.  The upper level trough will approach and
pass over the Southern Plains on Sunday with rain lingering across
the area.  There will be areas with CAPE values of over 1000 J/kg
and 0-6 km bulk shear will be near 50 kts so a strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon across the Lower Trans
Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.

On Monday, the upper level trough will move to the east of the
region with the precipitation moving out of the area as well.  A
cold front will move into the area on Monday on the backside of the
upper trough but this front will not have much impact on
temperatures as highs warm to above average.  Temperatures will
gradually increase through the middle of next week with upper level
ridging developing over the region.  Another upper trough is
expected to approach the Central/Northern Plains with a dryline
possibly developing across the CWA on Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03






000
FXUS64 KHGX 181124
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
624 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. OVERCAST TO BREAK UP THROUGH MORNING TO A FEW-SCT DECK OR
SCT CIRRUS. A WEAK EARLY DAY BOUNDARY PASSAGE HAS NORTHEASTERN
BREEZES BEHIND IT...BECOMING VRB TO SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY. THIS
DRIER AIR MASS FILLING IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY AS SOME DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
RAIN WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BEGINNING
ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL...NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH
NOT MUCH RAINFALL.  42

MARINE...
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK NORTHERN BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN A
BACKED 10 TO 15 KT NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WILL TURN A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE FRIDAY BREEZE BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY MID
SATURDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...WHERE AN APPROACHING INLAND BOUNDARY VEERS LIGHT WINDS
MORE WESTERLY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK ONSHORE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK
UP BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWERING WESTERN
PLAINS PRESSURE. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  58  80  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  59  80  60  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  65  76  64  77 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 181111
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
611 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS LOOK TO LINGER QUITE A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. LOW CIGS AT LBB SHOULD RISE TO MVFR LATER
THIS MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TO VFR NEAR 17Z. SIMILAR STORY
AT CDS...ALBEIT A SOLID 2-3 HOURS LATER DUE TO THICKER STRATUS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO TREND SLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
MRNG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT BUT MOIST EASTERLIES HAD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF
3AM COMPLETE WITH ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS. DEPTH OF THIS STRATUS IS
QUITE SHALLOW...SO WE STILL EXPECT INSOLATION TO DO ITS JOB AND
ERODE THIS COMPLETELY BY LATE MORNING. BIGGEST EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THIS SATURATED DEPTH IS
DEEPER AND ALSO WINDS HERE WILL BE DELAYED IN VEERING SOUTH
COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER WEST. WHAT FOG HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP
THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN PROBLEMATIC...BUT UNTIL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
RISE BY MID-MORNING WE/LL KEEP PATCHY FOG MENTION INTACT AREA
WIDE.

BY MIDDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED ATOP THE SOUTH
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SOON TO
SET ITS SIGHTS ON THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE IS ALREADY
TRENDING A BIT DIRTY FROM A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS THAT
SHOULD REACH OUR DOORSTEP THIS AFTERNOON. ADD TO THIS MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPRESSING MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.

ONLY CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO NIX THE MENTION
OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES. LARGELY
MERIDIONAL PRESENTATION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT CERTAINLY POINT TO A DELAYED ONSET OF HEIGHT FALLS AND
DEEPER SATURATION NECESSARY FOR PRECIP.

LONG TERM...
MODEL DATA FROM TONIGHT PAINT A COMPLICATED PICTURE FOR RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND THERE WERE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL HAVE A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
OPENING UP INTO A DEEP TROF AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE EJECT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROF AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-DAY. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE MAIN TROF PASSING OVER THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE...FINALLY PASSING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES HAS CHANGED THE TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE AS WELL. SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY
THOUGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
STARTED OFF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. AS
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
BUT KEEP THE ROLLING PLAINS UNDER A STRONG CAP. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE IN AS CAP
STRENGTH IS WEAKER CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROF. ALL THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS PLAY OUT THIS SCENARIO AND THE DETERMINISTIC TTU WRF HAS
ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HOWEVER ARE
SOMEWHAT LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT STILL FAVOR
A PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL THIS LENDS
TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AND OPTED TO REDUCE POPS BY
10 PERCENT IN THE PEAK TIME FRAME OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO BE IN RECOVERY MODE FROM THE RAIN ON SATURDAY WHICH
PREVENTS MUCH FROM DEVELOPING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH TOWARDS AND THEN OVER THE REGION.
MODELS GENERATE A MORE OPTIMISTIC 1000 J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS MAINLY DUE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED HEATING COMPARED TO WHAT THE MODELS ARE HOPING FOR.
MODERATE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT POSSIBLY HELPING IN SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT BY
ERODING THE CAP SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING. PUTTING THIS ALL
TOGETHER MEANS SUNDAY WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR PRECIP WHILE A BIT OF DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROF
AND REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WEAK DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS
LIFT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL AND HAVE KEPT
LOW- END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE TROF
AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO
MIX EAST THROUGH THE DAY...LEFT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ANY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE TROF MAY
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE IF MODELS START TO REFLECT A SLOWER TROF
PROGRESSION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF FOR MONDAY
WHICH WILL MAINLY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT IS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO PUSH IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 40 DEG F IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE AND WE START TO SEE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A BROAD TROF WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK AND WE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP REDEVELOP THE LEE SURFACE TROF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHARPEN UP THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STORMS AS A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND MODELS SHOW NO
PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS REALLY START TO DIFFER. ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY THE TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS OUT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE TROF AND THEN SWINGS IT OUT A FULL DAY TO
DAY AND A HALF LATER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A MORE
WINDY/DUSTY DAY FOR THURSDAY. TOO MANY DIFFERENCES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS OF THE FORECAST TO WARRANT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS THIS
TIME BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE DRYLINE...
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP OUR EYE ON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  49  75  49  75 /   0   0  30  30  20
TULIA         71  51  76  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     70  52  77  53  79 /   0   0  20  30  20
LEVELLAND     72  53  77  54  79 /   0   0  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       71  53  79  55  80 /   0   0  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   73  55  76  54  80 /   0  10  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    72  54  76  54  80 /   0  10  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     70  52  79  56  81 /   0   0  10  30  30
SPUR          73  53  78  57  83 /   0   0  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     73  55  78  60  83 /   0   0  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93







000
FXUS64 KAMA 181104
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY.

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL IMPACT THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN SUCH THAT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY AND FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR
TONIGHT FOR WRN TX PNHDL AND THEN REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORWTAVE TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE RETAINED SLGT
CHC TO CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REORIENTED THEM SUNDAY TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE FCST AREA WITH SLGT CHC VALUES WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS...AND CHC POPS ERN ZONES. PRECIP TYPE THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS SOME PRECIP INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE INSERTED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR ALL OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 06Z...THEN DRY REMAINDER
OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CNTRL STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DISAGREE IN HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR
STORM SYSTEM IN ALL ASPECTS RANGING FROM TROF ORIENTATION TO PROGGED
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AREAS. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS THE FASTEST AND 00Z GFS THE SLOWEST. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PRONOUNCED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SEEN FOR WEDNESDAY. THESE SW WINDS WILL LIKELY SEND THE
DRYLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD INTO EITHER THE ERN ZONES OR PERHAPS WRN
OK BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. FCSTG WHERE THIS DRYLINE BOUNDARY SITUATES
ITSELF DURG THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME AND IS BEST HANDLED AS TIME GETS CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO
RETAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                72  50  75  52  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
BEAVER OK                  74  50  79  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              74  49  76  48  72 /   0   0  20  30  20
BORGER TX                  74  53  80  56  76 /   0   0  20  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              74  49  76  50  76 /   0   0  20  30  20
CANYON TX                  72  50  75  51  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
CLARENDON TX               71  51  76  54  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
DALHART TX                 75  47  77  48  74 /   0   0  20  30  20
GUYMON OK                  75  50  78  52  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
HEREFORD TX                72  49  75  50  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                71  51  77  54  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
PAMPA TX                   72  50  77  53  75 /   0   0  20  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                71  51  77  55  78 /   0   0  20  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              71  52  77  56  79 /   0   0  20  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 181104
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY.

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL IMPACT THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN SUCH THAT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY AND FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR
TONIGHT FOR WRN TX PNHDL AND THEN REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORWTAVE TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE RETAINED SLGT
CHC TO CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REORIENTED THEM SUNDAY TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE FCST AREA WITH SLGT CHC VALUES WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS...AND CHC POPS ERN ZONES. PRECIP TYPE THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS SOME PRECIP INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE INSERTED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR ALL OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 06Z...THEN DRY REMAINDER
OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CNTRL STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DISAGREE IN HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR
STORM SYSTEM IN ALL ASPECTS RANGING FROM TROF ORIENTATION TO PROGGED
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AREAS. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS THE FASTEST AND 00Z GFS THE SLOWEST. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PRONOUNCED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SEEN FOR WEDNESDAY. THESE SW WINDS WILL LIKELY SEND THE
DRYLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD INTO EITHER THE ERN ZONES OR PERHAPS WRN
OK BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. FCSTG WHERE THIS DRYLINE BOUNDARY SITUATES
ITSELF DURG THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME AND IS BEST HANDLED AS TIME GETS CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO
RETAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                72  50  75  52  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
BEAVER OK                  74  50  79  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              74  49  76  48  72 /   0   0  20  30  20
BORGER TX                  74  53  80  56  76 /   0   0  20  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              74  49  76  50  76 /   0   0  20  30  20
CANYON TX                  72  50  75  51  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
CLARENDON TX               71  51  76  54  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
DALHART TX                 75  47  77  48  74 /   0   0  20  30  20
GUYMON OK                  75  50  78  52  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
HEREFORD TX                72  49  75  50  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                71  51  77  54  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
PAMPA TX                   72  50  77  53  75 /   0   0  20  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                71  51  77  55  78 /   0   0  20  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              71  52  77  56  79 /   0   0  20  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 181104
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY.

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL IMPACT THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN SUCH THAT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY AND FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR
TONIGHT FOR WRN TX PNHDL AND THEN REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORWTAVE TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE RETAINED SLGT
CHC TO CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REORIENTED THEM SUNDAY TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE FCST AREA WITH SLGT CHC VALUES WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS...AND CHC POPS ERN ZONES. PRECIP TYPE THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS SOME PRECIP INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE INSERTED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR ALL OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 06Z...THEN DRY REMAINDER
OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CNTRL STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DISAGREE IN HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR
STORM SYSTEM IN ALL ASPECTS RANGING FROM TROF ORIENTATION TO PROGGED
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AREAS. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS THE FASTEST AND 00Z GFS THE SLOWEST. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PRONOUNCED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SEEN FOR WEDNESDAY. THESE SW WINDS WILL LIKELY SEND THE
DRYLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD INTO EITHER THE ERN ZONES OR PERHAPS WRN
OK BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. FCSTG WHERE THIS DRYLINE BOUNDARY SITUATES
ITSELF DURG THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME AND IS BEST HANDLED AS TIME GETS CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO
RETAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                72  50  75  52  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
BEAVER OK                  74  50  79  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              74  49  76  48  72 /   0   0  20  30  20
BORGER TX                  74  53  80  56  76 /   0   0  20  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              74  49  76  50  76 /   0   0  20  30  20
CANYON TX                  72  50  75  51  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
CLARENDON TX               71  51  76  54  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
DALHART TX                 75  47  77  48  74 /   0   0  20  30  20
GUYMON OK                  75  50  78  52  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
HEREFORD TX                72  49  75  50  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                71  51  77  54  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
PAMPA TX                   72  50  77  53  75 /   0   0  20  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                71  51  77  55  78 /   0   0  20  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              71  52  77  56  79 /   0   0  20  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 181104
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...RATHER QUIET SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE OFFING FOR TODAY.

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL IMPACT THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN SUCH THAT ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE GONE
WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY AND FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR
TONIGHT FOR WRN TX PNHDL AND THEN REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.

LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORWTAVE TROF WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND HAVE RETAINED SLGT
CHC TO CHC POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND REORIENTED THEM SUNDAY TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE FCST AREA WITH SLGT CHC VALUES WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS...AND CHC POPS ERN ZONES. PRECIP TYPE THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. NAM/ECMWF/GFS/CMC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS SOME PRECIP INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE INSERTED
SLGT CHC POPS FOR ALL OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL 06Z...THEN DRY REMAINDER
OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CNTRL STATES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. MODELS DISAGREE IN HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR
STORM SYSTEM IN ALL ASPECTS RANGING FROM TROF ORIENTATION TO PROGGED
SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION AREAS. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS THE FASTEST AND 00Z GFS THE SLOWEST. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
PRONOUNCED SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS SEEN FOR WEDNESDAY. THESE SW WINDS WILL LIKELY SEND THE
DRYLINE FAIRLY QUICKLY EWD INTO EITHER THE ERN ZONES OR PERHAPS WRN
OK BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. FCSTG WHERE THIS DRYLINE BOUNDARY SITUATES
ITSELF DURG THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY THIS
FAR OUT IN TIME AND IS BEST HANDLED AS TIME GETS CLOSER AND MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THEREFORE...FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO
RETAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TUESDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                72  50  75  52  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
BEAVER OK                  74  50  79  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              74  49  76  48  72 /   0   0  20  30  20
BORGER TX                  74  53  80  56  76 /   0   0  20  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              74  49  76  50  76 /   0   0  20  30  20
CANYON TX                  72  50  75  51  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
CLARENDON TX               71  51  76  54  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
DALHART TX                 75  47  77  48  74 /   0   0  20  30  20
GUYMON OK                  75  50  78  52  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
HEREFORD TX                72  49  75  50  75 /   0   0  20  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                71  51  77  54  77 /   0   0  20  30  30
PAMPA TX                   72  50  77  53  75 /   0   0  20  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                71  51  77  55  78 /   0   0  20  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              71  52  77  56  79 /   0   0  20  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMAF 181011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
510 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today will be similar to those from yesterday as
surface winds become southeasterly by this afternoon.  These winds
will bring an increase in low-level moisture.  An upper level trough
over southern California is approaching the region with shortwaves
moving over the area.  This increase in moisture and lift will
contribute to showers developing across the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos this morning and thunderstorms developing
across the higher terrain later this afternoon.  Showers and
thunderstorms will spread eastward across the CWA on Saturday as the
upper trough gets closer.  The upper level trough will approach and
pass over the Southern Plains on Sunday with rain lingering across
the area.  There will be areas with CAPE values of over 1000 J/kg
and 0-6 km bulk shear will be near 50 kts so a strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon across the Lower Trans
Pecos and eastern Permian Basin.

On Monday, the upper level trough will move to the east of the
region with the precipitation moving out of the area as well.  A
cold front will move into the area on Monday on the backside of the
upper trough but this front will not have much impact on
temperatures as highs warm to above average.  Temperatures will
gradually increase through the middle of next week with upper level
ridging developing over the region.  Another upper trough is
expected to approach the Central/Northern Plains with a dryline
possibly developing across the CWA on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  58  76  58  /  10  10  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              73  58  77  60  /  20  10  30  40
CARLSBAD NM                75  56  77  53  /  10  30  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  78  62  /  20  10  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           77  58  78  60  /  10  20  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  52  71  53  /  20  40  50  20
HOBBS NM                   74  54  74  53  /   0  20  40  30
MARFA TX                   74  49  73  48  /  20  40  50  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  58  77  59  /  10  10  30  30
ODESSA TX                  75  58  77  59  /  10  10  30  30
WINK TX                    79  57  80  58  /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/80








000
FXUS64 KSJT 180953
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
449 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Latest analysis shows a shortwave trough heading eastward across
Oklahoma and east Texas, with an upper low entering the southern
California coast. Weak isentropic lift over shallow cooler air at
the surface across west Texas is resulting in patchy fog and
widespread low clouds this morning across the area. Some light
drizzle may also be possible...but not expecting any measurable
precipitation. Clouds should dissipate by late morning as drier air
mixes down. Expecting afternoon highs to be a few degrees warmer
today than yesterday with a bit of afternoon sunshine and warmer 850
mb temperatures associated with weak ridge aloft. Low clouds should
again move in overnight with strong southeast low level flow,
keeping overnight temperatures mild in the 50s.


.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this weekend, with the
best chance occurring Saturday night into Easter Sunday. Dry and
warm weather is expected next week.

A short wave trough will move across the Southern Rockies on
Saturday and into the Central and Southern Plains on Easter Sunday.
The main lift from this system will be affecting the area Saturday
night and Sunday and this is when rain chances will be highest
across West Central Texas. On Saturday, mainly looking at a dry
forecast with partly to mostly cloudy skies. POP`s were scaled back
on Saturday as upper level support will be lacking. Going with a dry
forecast for most areas, with a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms across far western counties, mainly during the
afternoon hours. Expect afternoon highs in the middle and upper
70s.

Large scale ascent will increase across the area Saturday night into
Easter Sunday as the short wave enters the Plains. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms should develop to our west during the
evening hours, spreading east across the area after midnight.
Thunderstorms may become more organized across the area on Easter
Sunday as a dryline mixes east to our western border by afternoon.
Models show moderate instability developing east of the dryline
during the afternoon hours (CAPES around 2000 J/KG) as temperatures
warm into the lower 80s, with deep layer shear between 30 and 40 KT.
Not expecting widespread severe weather on Sunday, but a few
supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds cannot
be ruled out during the afternoon and early evening hours.

A weak cold front approaches from the north Sunday night. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along the front, mainly after
midnight across northern sections and will maintain highest POP`s
(30 percent) across the Big Country. The front is expected to stall
across southeast sections on Monday, before moving south across the
area Monday evening. Models are hinting at possible convection along
the front Monday afternoon but with the trough axis east of the
area, will maintain a dry forecast at this time.

Short wave ridging will develop across the Plain through mid week
as an amplified upper level trough moves into the western CONUS
and across the Rockies. Dry and warmer weather is expected through
Thursday but will need to keep and eye on possible dryline
convection developing by mid week. Due to model differences with
the upper level pattern, will maintain a dry forecast through
Thursday. Expect above normal temperatures through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  55  77  59  78 /  10   5  10  30  30
San Angelo  76  56  79  59  80 /  10   5  20  40  30
Junction  77  56  78  59  79 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

08/24










000
FXUS64 KLUB 180947
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
447 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT BUT MOIST EASTERLIES HAD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF
3AM COMPLETE WITH ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS. DEPTH OF THIS STRATUS IS
QUITE SHALLOW...SO WE STILL EXPECT INSOLATION TO DO ITS JOB AND
ERODE THIS COMPLETELY BY LATE MORNING. BIGGEST EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THIS SATURATED DEPTH IS
DEEPER AND ALSO WINDS HERE WILL BE DELAYED IN VEERING SOUTH
COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER WEST. WHAT FOG HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP
THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN PROBLEMATIC...BUT UNTIL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
RISE BY MID-MORNING WE/LL KEEP PATCHY FOG MENTION INTACT AREA
WIDE.

BY MIDDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED ATOP THE SOUTH
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SOON TO
SET ITS SIGHTS ON THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE IS ALREADY
TRENDING A BIT DIRTY FROM A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS THAT
SHOULD REACH OUR DOORSTEP THIS AFTERNOON. ADD TO THIS MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPRESSING MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.

ONLY CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO NIX THE MENTION
OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES. LARGELY
MERIDIONAL PRESENTATION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT CERTAINLY POINT TO A DELAYED ONSET OF HEIGHT FALLS AND
DEEPER SATURATION NECESSARY FOR PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODEL DATA FROM TONIGHT PAINT A COMPLICATED PICTURE FOR RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND THERE WERE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL HAVE A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
OPENING UP INTO A DEEP TROF AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE EJECT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROF AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-DAY. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE MAIN TROF PASSING OVER THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE...FINALLY PASSING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES HAS CHANGED THE TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE AS WELL. SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY
THOUGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
STARTED OFF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. AS
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
BUT KEEP THE ROLLING PLAINS UNDER A STRONG CAP. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE IN AS CAP
STRENGTH IS WEAKER CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROF. ALL THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS PLAY OUT THIS SCENARIO AND THE DETERMINISTIC TTU WRF HAS
ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HOWEVER ARE
SOMEWHAT LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT STILL FAVOR
A PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL THIS LENDS
TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AND OPTED TO REDUCE POPS BY
10 PERCENT IN THE PEAK TIME FRAME OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO BE IN RECOVERY MODE FROM THE RAIN ON SATURDAY WHICH
PREVENTS MUCH FROM DEVELOPING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH TOWARDS AND THEN OVER THE REGION.
MODELS GENERATE A MORE OPTIMISTIC 1000 J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS MAINLY DUE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED HEATING COMPARED TO WHAT THE MODELS ARE HOPING FOR.
MODERATE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT POSSIBLY HELPING IN SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT BY
ERODING THE CAP SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING. PUTTING THIS ALL
TOGETHER MEANS SUNDAY WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR PRECIP WHILE A BIT OF DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROF
AND REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WEAK DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS
LIFT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL AND HAVE KEPT
LOW- END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE TROF
AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO
MIX EAST THROUGH THE DAY...LEFT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ANY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE TROF MAY
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE IF MODELS START TO REFLECT A SLOWER TROF
PROGRESSION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF FOR MONDAY
WHICH WILL MAINLY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT IS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO PUSH IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 40 DEG F IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE AND WE START TO SEE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A BROAD TROF WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK AND WE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP REDEVELOP THE LEE SURFACE TROF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHARPEN UP THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STORMS AS A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND MODELS SHOW NO
PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS REALLY START TO DIFFER. ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY THE TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS OUT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE TROF AND THEN SWINGS IT OUT A FULL DAY TO
DAY AND A HALF LATER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A MORE
WINDY/DUSTY DAY FOR THURSDAY. TOO MANY DIFFERENCES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS OF THE FORECAST TO WARRANT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS THIS
TIME BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE DRYLINE...
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP OUR EYE ON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  49  75  49  75 /   0   0  30  30  20
TULIA         71  51  76  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     70  52  77  53  79 /   0   0  20  30  20
LEVELLAND     72  53  77  54  79 /   0   0  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       71  53  79  55  80 /   0   0  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   73  55  76  54  80 /   0  10  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    72  54  76  54  80 /   0  10  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     70  52  79  56  81 /   0   0  10  30  30
SPUR          73  53  78  57  83 /   0   0  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     73  55  78  60  83 /   0   0  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 180923
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
323 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL LEAD
TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER A QUARTER INCH...BUT SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE A
HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING THEIR
FIRST 90 DEGREE READING BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH UPPER LOW/TROUGH
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE FAR SOUTHERN CA COAST AND PRECIP CHANCES
OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DEW POINTS ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES HIGHER
OVER EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF CWA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME
AS EAST WINDS HAVE KICKED IN. SHOULD SEE THEM CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 40 BY 12Z. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WSW OVER WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND BRING IN SOME BAJA MOISTURE. MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR WEST AND FAR EAST WITH
FIRST OF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HRS BEFORE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF AREA. KEPT
POPS CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD GOING...BUT DID EXTEND A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST INTO EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY WHERE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE
SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR PSEUDO DRYLINE. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
ALREADY IN AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. INCREASED POPS TO AT
LEAST 20 PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH 30 POPS FAR EAST AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED
BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

DECENT INSTABILITY FORECAST BY MODELS FOR SAT ACROSS REGION WITH
LI`S AROUND -2C. SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...BEST IN
THE EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SPEED
SHEAR ABOVE H70. LOW WBZ HEIGHTS FORECAST SO COULD SEE SOME
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS BUT DO NOT EXPECT
ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. AGAIN HAVE HIGHEST POPS SAT EAST OF RIO
GRANDE AND MOUNTAINS AND ISOLD POPS SW. GIVEN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...WENT TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
TEMPS IF NOT BELOW. KEPT POPS GOING OVER EAST INTO SAT EVE AND
THEN JUST SACS AFT 06Z. MODELS CONTINUING TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THIS TROUGH THROUGH AREA SO LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO KEEP MENTION
IN AT LEAST EASTERN CWA INTO POSSIBLY SUN MORNING.

UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
AREAS GETTING THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE READINGS TUE. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATE TUE/WED AND BORDERLAND
WILL NOT FEEL ANY AFFECTS PRECIP WISE WITH THIS...BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED-THU WHEN MOST CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WED AGAIN 80S TO NEAR 90
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS TROUGH PASSES THU. MEX GUIDANCE TRYING
TO SHOW BIG COOL DOWN FOR AREA FRI ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH...BUT
WITH RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK IN AND WINDS S TO SW...DO NOT SEE
MUCH IF ANY COOL DOWN EXPECTED...SO WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES.



&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/12Z-19/12Z.
FROM 12Z-18Z...BKN-OVC200-250 WITH ESE WINDS 8-15KTS. AFT 18Z SCT-
BKN100-120 BKN-OVC200-250 WITH ISOLD TO SCT 5SM -TSRA BKN040-050
WITH STRONGEST STORMS POSSIBLY HAVING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40KTS ALONG WITH MVFR CONDS. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE S TO SW
10-15KTS THIS AFTN AND BECOME VARIABLE UNDER 10KTS AFT 02Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM BOTH THE
SOUTHEAST AND BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SOUTHWEST. ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FAR SW NM...HUDSPETH AND EASTERN OTERO
COUNTIES. A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY IN. CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MUCH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S WITH
SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 20-35 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 80  61  75  56  82 /  10  20  30  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           78  54  73  50  78 /  20  30  40  30   0
LAS CRUCES              78  56  74  50  80 /   0  20  20  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              77  57  73  49  76 /   0  20  30  30   0
CLOUDCROFT              55  44  52  42  58 /  10  30  40  30  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   74  54  72  52  75 /  10  20  20  30   0
SILVER CITY             70  48  68  46  72 /  20  30  30  30   0
DEMING                  77  53  75  49  80 /  10  20  20  20   0
LORDSBURG               72  52  74  49  79 /  10  20  20  10   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      81  60  75  54  81 /   0  20  30  20   0
DELL CITY               80  54  74  45  82 /  10  30  40  30   0
FORT HANCOCK            81  58  77  55  84 /  10  30  30  30   0
LOMA LINDA              74  55  71  46  72 /  10  30  40  30   0
FABENS                  80  57  76  51  83 /  10  30  30  30   0
SANTA TERESA            79  56  74  50  80 /   0  20  20  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          79  57  75  55  81 /   0  20  20  30   0
JORNADA RANGE           78  48  74  44  79 /   0  20  20  30   0
HATCH                   77  51  74  44  79 /   0  20  20  20   0
COLUMBUS                77  56  75  53  80 /   0  20  20  20   0
OROGRANDE               78  56  76  53  79 /  10  20  30  30   0
MAYHILL                 66  49  61  45  67 /  20  30  50  30  20
MESCALERO               68  49  63  40  68 /  20  30  50  30  20
TIMBERON                67  46  61  42  66 /  10  30  40  30  20
WINSTON                 68  49  68  43  69 /  20  30  40  30  10
HILLSBORO               71  54  70  49  73 /  10  20  30  30   0
SPACEPORT               73  51  73  49  76 /   0  20  20  30   0
LAKE ROBERTS            62  45  59  39  68 /  20  30  40  30  10
HURLEY                  71  50  70  45  74 /  20  20  30  20   0
CLIFF                   70  46  69  40  75 /  20  30  30  20   0
MULE CREEK              70  44  67  37  75 /  20  30  30  20   0
FAYWOOD                 70  51  69  45  75 /  20  20  30  30   0
ANIMAS                  71  53  74  49  80 /  10  20  20   0   0
HACHITA                 72  51  76  48  79 /  10  20  20  10   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          74  54  74  50  80 /  10  20  20   0   0
CLOVERDALE              71  50  72  44  72 /  20  20  20   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/26






000
FXUS64 KCRP 180907
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  81  65  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          82  57  82  63  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84  64  86  66  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  59  84  64  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          75  64  76  66  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  59  86  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  65  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  75  67  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
IB/90...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KCRP 180907
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
407 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WL
PREDOMINATE TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. CONCUR
WITH THE GFS THAT ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST...WL MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE SWRN CONUS DRG THE PERIOD.
THIS SYSTEM WL CONTRIBUTE TO RTN FLOW TNGT/SATURDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS MAINLY 09-12Z SATURDAY (SREF VSBY PROB ADDS CREDENCE.)
INCREASING DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY. WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
CNTRL/WRN CWA OWING TO PSBL ELEVATED CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ASSOOCIATED WITH A 500 MB
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT...ENOUGH OF A CAP WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO INHIBIT MOST
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND CROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN 20 POPS THOUGH. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA...PLACING SOUTH TEXAS UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BY
WEDNESDAY...UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE...AND
HAVE GONE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  61  81  65  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          82  57  82  63  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            84  64  86  66  85  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             83  59  84  64  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          75  64  76  66  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           83  59  86  63  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        83  60  83  65  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  64  75  67  78  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
IB/90...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KHGX 180905
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
405 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY AS SOME DRIER
AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
RAIN WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTH WINDS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BEGINNING
ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL...NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH
NOT MUCH RAINFALL.  42
&&

.MARINE...
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK NORTHERN BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN A
BACKED 10 TO 15 KT NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WILL TURN A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE FRIDAY BREEZE BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY MID
SATURDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM MID SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...WHERE AN APPROACHING INLAND BOUNDARY VEERS LIGHT WINDS
MORE WESTERLY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK ONSHORE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK
UP BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWERING WESTERN
PLAINS PRESSURE. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  58  80  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              79  59  80  60  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  65  76  64  77 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31




000
FXUS64 KFWD 180850
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS IS
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WANES. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A
GRADUAL TOP DOWN DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. COMPACT BUT STRONG
UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
AND WILL LEAVE SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE AIDING IN SCATTERING OUT THE
CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AN
IMPRESSIVE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS RESULTING IN A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY SATURDAY EVENING
WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING INTO WEST TEXAS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING BY
LATE SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS WEST TEXAS BUT IT IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT THESE WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY OF OUR
AREA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A STRONG SURGE OF MID LEVEL
HIGH THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS. THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL HAVE 20 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON SUNDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE WILL BE
CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A LACK OF MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. A DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVER THE AREA. GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA SO THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW AT BEST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY LEAVING NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS /WEAK FRONT/
MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DURING THIS TIME AND THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.
WITH AMPLE AFTERNOON HEATING AND MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...AT
LEAST A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES APPEARING TO BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WILL HAVE SOME LOW
POPS IN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE
GIVEN THE AMPLE INSTABILITY.

WEAK RIDGING AGAIN PASSES BY ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. BY MIDWEEK. IT APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE WED/THU AFTERNOONS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  57  79  61  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
WACO, TX              74  52  79  59  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
PARIS, TX             73  53  76  57  77 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            72  55  78  59  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  54  78  58  78 /  10   5   5  20  20
DALLAS, TX            74  58  79  61  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
TERRELL, TX           74  54  77  58  77 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  55  80  59  78 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  53  79  58  79 /  10   5   5  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  53  78  58  78 /  10   5   5  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KEWX 180755
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WANE THIS MORNING...WHILE DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER IN AT MID-LEVELS. THE RESULT WILL BE PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE THROUGH MID-MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT...CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS 5F OR SO WARMER THAN THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE WEAK RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE GENERAL ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SPUTTERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN BITS AND PIECES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. DECIDED TO SHOTGUN 20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN REFOCUS 20 POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT...
SOME LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MANY WILL ONLY RECEIVE 1/10
INCH OR LESS. ONE OR TWO SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY SEE
ONE INCH FROM ISOLATED...STRONGER STORMS.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR POPS TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY IN THE FAR WEST (MEXICAN MOUNTAINS) OR
FAR EAST (STREAMER SHOWERS) TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THAT
SAID...WITH FAIRLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW AND NO SURFACE BOUNDARIES...
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT. THERE WILL BE SOME
WARMING NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF ON
THURSDAY...AND ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST NEXT FRIDAY. THE
HEAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...SO WILL
MENTION ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE FOR NEXT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  57  80  60  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  78  54  80  57  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     78  57  81  58  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  56  78  59  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  62  80  64  81 /  10  20  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  56  79  59  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             80  59  82  62  81 /  10  -   20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        78  56  80  58  78 /  10  -   10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  57  79  58  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  58  82  61  79 /  10  -   10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  59  82  61  81 /  10  -   10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26






000
FXUS64 KBRO 180755
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE BRO CWFA. LOW CLOUDINESS
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...AND BETWEEN 1K AND 2500 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF.

TODAY...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE WILL
PRODUCE CONTINUED ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S APPEARED REASONABLE AND
WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...ESPECIALLY SINCE OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF FORECAST
THINNING/PARTIAL CLEARING OF CLOUDINESS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS DOES
NOT OCCUR OR IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN A
GREATER ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL DISSIPATE THE INVERTED COASTAL TROUGHINESS...
THEREBY ENDING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL ALSO BE
AIDED BY AN INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. CLOUDINESS FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
BACK INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED
OVER THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB HIGH WILL
CARRY OVER THE DRY WEATHER INTO THE DAYTIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED FRIDAY HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO THE BRO CWFA.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS REGION WILL EXIT THE REGION AND
MOVE EASTWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL SURGE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
CWA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY BUT WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS NOT HAVING
A BIG SHIFT IN WINDS OR TEMPERATURES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MIDDLE VALLEY WHILE THE WEST
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH TUESDAY.

IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT...SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZE TO WINDY
THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM
THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS
AROUND 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SMALL CRAFT WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO SEAS. IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS UP TO 5 FEET SUNDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 2 TO 4 FEET FOR
FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS DUE TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
BREEZE INTO THURSDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO HINT ON A DEEPER
LOW...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FOR WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6
FEET WITH SCEC CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  64  78  68 /  20   0   0  20
BROWNSVILLE          78  63  80  68 /  20   0   0  20
HARLINGEN            79  62  81  67 /  20   0   0  20
MCALLEN              82  65  83  68 /  20   0   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      82  65  82  68 /  20   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  66  76  68 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66/67








000
FXUS64 KCRP 180550
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTN
HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM MIST/LGT RAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 181 UNTIL AROUND 09Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY
LGT NORTHEAST SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SPEEDS BY
LATE MORNING. MAINLY LGT/MODERATE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...HAVE REWORDED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT MORE
IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THAN SHOWERS...AND TO CONTINUE
MENTION PAST MIDNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATES DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM SFC TO H75
WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO H85...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL MOISTURE INFLUX THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  63  78  66  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
VICTORIA          80  58  79  63  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            84  66  86  68  88  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             81  61  81  65  83  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          77  64  75  66  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           82  60  82  64  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        81  62  80  66  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  65  76  67  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 180550
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTN
HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM MIST/LGT RAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 181 UNTIL AROUND 09Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY
LGT NORTHEAST SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SPEEDS BY
LATE MORNING. MAINLY LGT/MODERATE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...HAVE REWORDED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT MORE
IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THAN SHOWERS...AND TO CONTINUE
MENTION PAST MIDNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATES DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM SFC TO H75
WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO H85...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL MOISTURE INFLUX THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  63  78  66  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
VICTORIA          80  58  79  63  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            84  66  86  68  88  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             81  61  81  65  83  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          77  64  75  66  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           82  60  82  64  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        81  62  80  66  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  65  76  67  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 180550
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTN
HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM MIST/LGT RAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 181 UNTIL AROUND 09Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY
LGT NORTHEAST SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SPEEDS BY
LATE MORNING. MAINLY LGT/MODERATE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...HAVE REWORDED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT MORE
IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THAN SHOWERS...AND TO CONTINUE
MENTION PAST MIDNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATES DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM SFC TO H75
WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO H85...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL MOISTURE INFLUX THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  63  78  66  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
VICTORIA          80  58  79  63  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            84  66  86  68  88  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             81  61  81  65  83  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          77  64  75  66  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           82  60  82  64  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        81  62  80  66  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  65  76  67  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KCRP 180550
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1250 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CEILINGS DURING THE AFTN
HOURS FOLLOWED BY VFR. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM MIST/LGT RAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 181 UNTIL AROUND 09Z FRIDAY. GENERALLY
LGT NORTHEAST SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SPEEDS BY
LATE MORNING. MAINLY LGT/MODERATE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...HAVE REWORDED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT MORE
IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THAN SHOWERS...AND TO CONTINUE
MENTION PAST MIDNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATES DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM SFC TO H75
WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO H85...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL MOISTURE INFLUX THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  63  78  66  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
VICTORIA          80  58  79  63  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            84  66  86  68  88  /  10  20  20  20  20
ALICE             81  61  81  65  83  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          77  64  75  66  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           82  60  82  64  84  /  10  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        81  62  80  66  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       76  65  76  67  77  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KBRO 180539 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED WITHIN DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CORRESPONDINGLY...CEILINGS
HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FEET...WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE. VFR WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHER CEILINGS AND MODERATE
WINDS THAT WILL BECOME LIGHTER IN THE LATE EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...CEILINGS ARE FALLING FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND NEW DATA
FROM THE EVENING BALLOON SHOWS HIGHER LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
THAN EXPECTED SO HAVE AMENDED THE TAFS TO BE MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN
THE ORIGINAL 00Z PACKAGE NOW FORECASTING LIFR IN A FEW HOURS AT
HRL/BRO WITH IFR IN THE MEANTIME. IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
FOR THE IFR TO FULLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION BUT A WEAK
INVERSION AT AROUND 900 FT SHOULD HELP HOLD IT IN PLACE. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA
HELPING KEEP AN MVFR CLOUD DECK AND PERIODIC SPRINKLES IN PLACE.
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT CIG TO DROP THROUGH THE
EVENING TO IFR...MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT A LIFR
FORECAST BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT BY SUNRISE TONIGHT. A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS FORECAST BY MID MORNING AND CLOUD
DECKS MAY RISE ABOVE 3000 FT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 TO 12 KNOTS.
/68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING A BRIEF DRYING
TREND THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH PWAT DECREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
FROM THE CURRENT INCH AND A HALF. A WEAK H5 RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE CAP WILL ERODE BUT NOT DISAPPEAR
COMPLETELY. LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT WILL BECOME UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ON FRIDAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN TSTMS OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS MAY NOT DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH
TSTMS INTO THE RGV...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FARTHER NORTH
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S ONCE AGAIN. KEPT AN ONGOING MENTION OF GENERAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE PATTERN ALOFT
IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH AND SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET SUCH THAT A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING
FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...RETURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE IN THE
REGION. THE PEAK OF THE INSTABILITY FROM THE H5 TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL ATTEMPT TO TAP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWER IN THE VICINITY SUNDAY. THESE WILL
NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT...MORE OF A SPLASH AND DASH SHOWER. THIS
MIDLEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
STRONGER RIDGING ARRIVING. THIS WILL KEEP ANY IMPULSES WELL AWAY
FROM THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES INCREASE
SLOWLY EACH DAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. NO RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL MAYBE THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
BUT WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF FROM THE NORTH. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE MODERATE RANGE...BUT COULD MEET EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AT
TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL
TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KNOTS CREATING SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SEAS TO 4 TO 5 FEET. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS
TO RELAX INTO MONDAY BACK DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT SOME CAUTION MAY BEEN URGED
FOR THE DAY SUNDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KMAF 180535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings will affect TAF locations overnight and into the
morning hours after sunrise with possible IFR ceilings at KMAF.
Surface winds will gradually become southeast across the area
later this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing west of TAF routes could affect KCNM after 00Z

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will increase this weekend, followed by much warmer
temperatures and little chance of rain next week.

An ua trough over the southern U.S. Plains will continue to translate
eastward this afternoon and will be replaced by an ua ridge Friday.
A weak cold front continues to push south through the region today
with modest cooling being felt the most to the north of Interstate
20.  The surface ridge behind the front will not push south
through the region aggressively, so only northern reaches of the
forecast area will see low temperatures slightly below normal tonight.
Low level moisture will begin to return to the region tonight on
southeasterly winds on the backside of the said surface ridge,
with this process continuing Friday due to height falls ahead of
an approaching southern stream ua trough.  Portions of the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos could see isolated showers develop
late tonight, if not Friday morning as the first shortwave trough
ejecting ahead of the mentioned ua trough shears northeastward
over the area.  Suspect most locations will see nothing, so have
kept PoPs at a minimum.  A surface trough will develop over the
western reaches of the forecast area Friday afternoon as a
stronger shortwave trough impinges upon the area.  Have increased
PoPs in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in particular Friday
afternoon as it appears low level moisture should increase enough
for the heated higher terrain to possibly provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. Instability will not be very good, so do
not think any severe storms will be in the offing.

Friday night, expect showers and thunderstorms to increase out west
along the surface trough, then move northeastward into the Upper
Trans Pecos and perhaps the Permian Basin Saturday.  The latest NAM
is more progressive bringing precipitation eastward, with most other
operational models keeping precipitation closer to the surface trough
which will remain over western portions of the forecast area through
Saturday.  Have split the difference somewhat, but have put the
best chances of rain for the Permian Basin and the rest of the
eastern County Warning area on Saturday night.  Shear will
increase as the ua trough approaches, but the amount of instability
available for strong to severe storms will hinge upon how fast the
rain moves east on Saturday.  That is, if the precipitation does
hang back along the surface trough through much of the day Saturday,
then there will be a better chance the eastern half or so of the
forecast area will have some heating, which will increase
instability and the potential for severe thunderstorms.  For now,
have made a mention of strong thunderstorms in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook with perhaps a severe storm or two until it
becomes clear how this will pan out.  The ua trough will linger
over the area, if not a little further north over the Texas
Panhandle Sunday.  Have kept PoPs over southeast New Mexico, and
the eastern Permian Basin for now, but these will have to be
expanded southward if the ua trough proves to be a bit deeper.

Rain chances will cease Sunday night with upper ridging taking over
across the southern Conus next week.  An ua trough, or cutoff low,
is expected to form over the northwest U.S. by mid next week then
move eastward across the northern/central U.S. Plains.  We will have
a dryline over the area, but unless the ua trough deepens more than
current progs indicate, we will likely stay dry.  What appears more
certain is temperatures warming well above normal.  Expect high
temps will rise around 10 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday,
but will increase to around 15 degrees above normal, if not more,
Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition, fire weather concerns could be
on the increase as dry and windy conditions could develop Wednesday
onward.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03





000
FXUS64 KMAF 180535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings will affect TAF locations overnight and into the
morning hours after sunrise with possible IFR ceilings at KMAF.
Surface winds will gradually become southeast across the area
later this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing west of TAF routes could affect KCNM after 00Z

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will increase this weekend, followed by much warmer
temperatures and little chance of rain next week.

An ua trough over the southern U.S. Plains will continue to translate
eastward this afternoon and will be replaced by an ua ridge Friday.
A weak cold front continues to push south through the region today
with modest cooling being felt the most to the north of Interstate
20.  The surface ridge behind the front will not push south
through the region aggressively, so only northern reaches of the
forecast area will see low temperatures slightly below normal tonight.
Low level moisture will begin to return to the region tonight on
southeasterly winds on the backside of the said surface ridge,
with this process continuing Friday due to height falls ahead of
an approaching southern stream ua trough.  Portions of the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos could see isolated showers develop
late tonight, if not Friday morning as the first shortwave trough
ejecting ahead of the mentioned ua trough shears northeastward
over the area.  Suspect most locations will see nothing, so have
kept PoPs at a minimum.  A surface trough will develop over the
western reaches of the forecast area Friday afternoon as a
stronger shortwave trough impinges upon the area.  Have increased
PoPs in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in particular Friday
afternoon as it appears low level moisture should increase enough
for the heated higher terrain to possibly provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. Instability will not be very good, so do
not think any severe storms will be in the offing.

Friday night, expect showers and thunderstorms to increase out west
along the surface trough, then move northeastward into the Upper
Trans Pecos and perhaps the Permian Basin Saturday.  The latest NAM
is more progressive bringing precipitation eastward, with most other
operational models keeping precipitation closer to the surface trough
which will remain over western portions of the forecast area through
Saturday.  Have split the difference somewhat, but have put the
best chances of rain for the Permian Basin and the rest of the
eastern County Warning area on Saturday night.  Shear will
increase as the ua trough approaches, but the amount of instability
available for strong to severe storms will hinge upon how fast the
rain moves east on Saturday.  That is, if the precipitation does
hang back along the surface trough through much of the day Saturday,
then there will be a better chance the eastern half or so of the
forecast area will have some heating, which will increase
instability and the potential for severe thunderstorms.  For now,
have made a mention of strong thunderstorms in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook with perhaps a severe storm or two until it
becomes clear how this will pan out.  The ua trough will linger
over the area, if not a little further north over the Texas
Panhandle Sunday.  Have kept PoPs over southeast New Mexico, and
the eastern Permian Basin for now, but these will have to be
expanded southward if the ua trough proves to be a bit deeper.

Rain chances will cease Sunday night with upper ridging taking over
across the southern Conus next week.  An ua trough, or cutoff low,
is expected to form over the northwest U.S. by mid next week then
move eastward across the northern/central U.S. Plains.  We will have
a dryline over the area, but unless the ua trough deepens more than
current progs indicate, we will likely stay dry.  What appears more
certain is temperatures warming well above normal.  Expect high
temps will rise around 10 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday,
but will increase to around 15 degrees above normal, if not more,
Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition, fire weather concerns could be
on the increase as dry and windy conditions could develop Wednesday
onward.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03






000
FXUS64 KEWX 180507
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1207 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH IS LEAVING WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN
ITS WAKE OVER CENTRAL TX...ALLOWING FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. THIS COULD ULTIMATELY LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS TO
VLIFR LEVELS IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE INCREASED STABILITY ALOFT
AND THE SLIGHTLY MORE NELY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL DRY THE MOIST
LAYER FROM ABOVE AND BELOW...SO IMPROVEMENTS SHOULD BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AFTER DAYBREAK. MODEL SUGGESTIONS OF IMPROVEMENTS TO
VFR SKIES AROUND MIDDAY IS TYPICAL FOR A MILD SPRING DAY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL TX...SO WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THEIR SUGGESTION FOR
THE IMPROVING TRENDS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENCE IN THE 24-30 HOUR RANGE WITH THE RETURN OF LIGHT SE
WINDS COULD MEAN THE MINIMAL LOW CLOUD AND FOG FORECASTS FOR
AUS/SAT COULD BE MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN MODEL AND CURRENT TAF
PROJECTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
FOG DEVELOPING.

DISCUSSION...
WITH THE LIGHT RAIN TODAY THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEAR SATURATION AND
FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. EXPECT THIS
DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
TRANSLATES EAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SUBTLE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND SHIFT...
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...EXCEPT ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN PROXIMITY TO A MID-
LEVEL (700-500MB) THETA-E RIDGE AXIS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES BY EARLY SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO TEXAS...THERE IS
A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THIS UPPER TROUGH.
ON SATURDAY...THE BETTER LIFT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NEARBY RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH
THESE AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS MOVING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO. MID-LEVEL LIFT SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND WE/LL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST ON MONDAY. WE/LL HANG ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A DRY AND WARM FORECAST IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL
RIDGING SETS UP. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED...BUT AT THIS TIME THE TROUGH
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO WARRANT A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  79  57  81  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  79  55  81  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  80  57  82  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  77  56  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  82  64  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  77  57  80  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  83  59  82  64 /  20  10  10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  79  56  80  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   57  80  56  81  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  81  58  82  63 /  20  10  10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  82  59  83  64 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05







000
FXUS64 KLUB 180459
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1159 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCDS AS LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY
VEERED TO THE NORTHEAST. VIS HAS ALSO DROPPED TO MVFR CRITIERIA
COURTESY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...AS LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
ENSUED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER FURTHER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS
PERSISTENT MVFR/IFR CLOUDS AND IFR FOG. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT
KLBB WERE A TAD BIT STRONGER THAN AT KCDS /AND DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWER/...HENCE LIKELY WHY FOG HAS YET TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A BIT OVERNIGHT AND VEER FURTHER TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST. IT IS THEREFORE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL. HAVE INSERTED A
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS IN THE TAFS. TOMORROW MID- MORNING...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
WILL SCOUR OUT. SCT- BKN VFR DECKS WILL PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE. WITH WINDS
COMMENCING TO VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. KCDS HAS DROPPED BELOW
10SM...THOUGH STILL VFR BUT THIS IS SUGGESTIVE OF FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED PATCHY FOG INITIALLY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS...THEN EXPANDING IT TO THE SOUTH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING STILL A BIT OF JET ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THAT AREA PER KCDS METAR...A FEW WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS...AND
AREA RADARS. TIMING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL SOLUTION
SHIFTING LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z AND WILL KEEP
POPS JUST BELOW 15 PCT ATTM.

SOME DRY ADVECTION COMING INTO THE NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS
SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO EITHER HANG IN OR RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY IF IT DOES
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM. PROSPECT OF SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS BUT
WITH CLEARING DURING THE AFTN AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. 12Z MOS SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WARMING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARMER
DEPENDING IN PART OF TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING.

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FOR THIS WEEKEND THO TIMING AND
COVERAGE SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THEY DO
SEEM TO HAVE A CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHEN
CONVECTION WILL START WITH THE NAM FIRING CONVECTION STARTING ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE AROUND LATE MORNING...THE GFS WAITING UNTIL
LATE EVENING...AND THE ECMWF STARTING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH THE /SLOWER/ TIMES AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POP
IN OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE
HELPFUL WITH AIDING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGEST CAPE VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SHOW MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND NO SHEAR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE. SOME STORMS HOWEVER MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AS THEY DECAY. THE NAM DISSIPATES CONVECTION QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE HAVING AN ENCORE SUNDAY EVENING AS IT PUSHES A
FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH. MOST MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
HINT AT SUCH HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FOR
THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TAPER THEM OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY REASON I HAVE NOT GONE HIGHER WITH POPS IS DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. I HAVE RAISED POPS SUNDAY EVENING TO JUST BELOW MENTION
FOR A SECOND PASS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL HAPPEN. HOPEFULLY THE OUTCOME
WILL BE MORE CLEARER TOMORROW AND I CAN ACT ACCORDINGLY.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
EVENING DEVELOPING A DRYLINE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE READILY
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HAS
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHO HAS STAYED ON THE DRY
SIDE. IF ANYTHING WILL COME OUT OF THIS IT WILL BE WIND AND PROBABLY
DUST. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  72  49  75  48 /   0   0  20  40  30
TULIA         43  73  50  75  50 /   0   0  10  40  30
PLAINVIEW     42  73  51  74  51 /   0   0  10  40  30
LEVELLAND     42  72  53  73  52 /   0   0  20  40  40
LUBBOCK       44  72  53  74  53 /   0   0  10  40  40
DENVER CITY   44  72  53  73  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    43  73  54  74  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     47  73  52  77  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
SPUR          45  74  53  76  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
ASPERMONT     49  75  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KHGX 180432
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1132 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CIGS THIS EVENING WITH SOME MVFR FURTHER TOWARDS THE
WEST. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING... THINK THIS WILL BE LIMITED THOUGH AS CLOUDS SHOULD
HOLD IN. HIGH RES MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNRISE TOWARDS THE WEST UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS BY THE AREA. NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIGS
REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE DAY. SOME CLEARING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY BRINGING A CIRRUS
SHIELD BACK OVERHEAD. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER STILL WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AND LOWER CIGS TO THE
WEST WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS GOING ON AND PROBABLY WILL
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL ADD 20 POPS TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THIS LIGHT PRECIP. WITH THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES HAVE OF
COURSE BEEN SLOW TO FALL AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE CLOUD
COVER PERSISTING UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE HAVE RAISED MINS FOR TONIGHT
MAINLY NORTH OF A LIBERTY TO CONROE TO CALDWELL LINE 1 TO 3
DEGREES.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A COLD FRONT
CAN BE FOUND AROUND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND WILL
PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN START
TO VEER TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOME LOCATIONS SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY (PARTICULAR-
LY THE NERN CWA) BUT CLOUDS HAVE HELD FIRM ELSEWHERE. AS SUCH THE
CHANCE OF PCPN (ALBEIT LIGHT) IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TONIGHT COURTESY OF A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE. THE TIMING
OF THIS DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH THE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY SHRA THAT
DOES FORM GENERALLY ISOLATED.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT/GENERALLY QUIET WX PATTERN ON TAP THE NEXT
DAY OR SO GIVEN THE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT (AND REINFORCING COOL/DRY
AIRMASS FROM A WEAK COOL FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT). HOWEVER MODELS
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE RETURN OF INCREASING TEMPS/LOW LEVEL MOI-
STURE AND A RETURN OF LOW POPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
(SAT NIGHT/SUN). BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF SHOULD BE
WELL N/NE OF THE CWFA (AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING THIS WAY). A
BRIEF (BUT MUCH FLATTER) RIDGE ALOFT TO WILL BE IN PLACE TO START
THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER (PERHAPS STRONGER) UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
SET TO MOVE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS STARTING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS STILL NEAR BORDERLINE CONDITIONS FOR CAUTION CRITERIA
SO WILL LET THOSE FLAGS CONTINUE TO FLY UNTIL NEXT UPDATE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS WEAK FRONT/HIGH PRES
WILL MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
NNE THEN NE. LIGHT ONSHORE RESUMES SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THRU
NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE 2ND HALF AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  58  78  58  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  58  80  59  80 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  63  75  66  76 /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KFWD 180431
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1131 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
PATCHY RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS THE METROPLEX. WILL LEAVE
-RA IN THE TAFS AND EXPECT THAT IT WILL END AS THE SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES ON EAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA AND DO
NOT EXPECT CIGS TO CRATER OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD DROP
BACK TO HIGH MVFR BY SUNRISE. DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE
DAY...WITH WIND SLOWLY SHIFTING BACK TO EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. 84

&&

.UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM HILLSBORO NORTH THROUGH THE
METROPLEX AND TOWARD THE RED RIVER...MOVING EAST ALONG THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITH AN ASSIST FROM THE BROAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HAVE ADJUST POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN. THIS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS SHORT-LIVED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
WARM THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 70S AND HIGHS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
IN THE RISE WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTH WINDS WILL
RETURN ON SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FINALLY OPENS UP AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. BY SATURDAY EVENING...A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS
ARE ALSO MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 CLOSER TO THE
PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SBCAPE WITH MOST VALUES BELOW 500 J/KG AND SOME SORT OF
CAP...HOWEVER...VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOSER TO THE RED
RIVER. WHERE SBCAPE IS LACKING THERE IS AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
CAPE PRESENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SBCAPE MINIMAL.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT CONTINUES TO APPEAR LOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS LOW TOO BUT WITH EVEN MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER. EVEN THOUGH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...A ROGUE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...POSSIBLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN WE MAY GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK AND THE
LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE NEARLY MAXIMIZED.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TROUGH
FOR A FEW DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT EVEN THE ECMWF
HAS SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

82/JLD



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  77  59  79  64 /  20  10  10  10  20
WACO, TX              54  75  56  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  20
PARIS, TX             50  74  55  75  59 /  30  10  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            51  75  55  78  61 /  30  10  10  10  30
MCKINNEY, TX          51  75  53  77  61 /  40  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            55  77  59  79  63 /  30  10  10  10  20
TERRELL, TX           52  75  54  77  61 /  30  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         54  76  58  78  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            55  76  55  78  59 /  20  10  10  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     54  74  56  79  60 /  20  10  10  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KAMA 180426
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1126 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES MAY POSSIBLY BECOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING FROM THE EAST AND FOG DEVELOPING BETWEEN 08Z TO 10Z
FRIDAY...AND 14Z TO 16Z FRIDAY MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 16Z TO 18Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHERLY 15 TO 25
KNOTS AFTER 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY...AND THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN BY 02Z
SATURDAY TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE
A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND AROUND 5 TO
10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND THE MOIST
SURFACE WIND AND LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY THE
GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES AFTER 08Z TO 10Z FRIDAY AND THEN
LIFTING BY 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY. CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS AT AMARILLO WILL
BECOME VFR BY 02Z FRIDAY BUT THEN MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING DUE
TO SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3
MILES MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z TO 10Z
FRIDAY...AND 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY 18Z
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFTER 16Z FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE NORTHEAST
WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
THESE UPSLOPE WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL HELP WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IT SHOULD START TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING THIS
WAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE NOT INSERTED ANY PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS TIME AS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY AGAIN TICK UP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/06





000
FXUS64 KAMA 180426
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1126 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES MAY POSSIBLY BECOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING FROM THE EAST AND FOG DEVELOPING BETWEEN 08Z TO 10Z
FRIDAY...AND 14Z TO 16Z FRIDAY MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 16Z TO 18Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHERLY 15 TO 25
KNOTS AFTER 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY...AND THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN BY 02Z
SATURDAY TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE
A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND AROUND 5 TO
10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND THE MOIST
SURFACE WIND AND LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY THE
GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES AFTER 08Z TO 10Z FRIDAY AND THEN
LIFTING BY 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY. CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS AT AMARILLO WILL
BECOME VFR BY 02Z FRIDAY BUT THEN MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING DUE
TO SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3
MILES MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z TO 10Z
FRIDAY...AND 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY 18Z
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFTER 16Z FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE NORTHEAST
WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
THESE UPSLOPE WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL HELP WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IT SHOULD START TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING THIS
WAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE NOT INSERTED ANY PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS TIME AS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY AGAIN TICK UP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/06






000
FXUS64 KSJT 180406
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1130 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

KSJT and KSOA will quickly degrade from VFR to MVFR and IFR over the
next several hours with MVFR and IFR conditions and occasional IFR
continuing at all terminals through the remainder of the night.
Ceilings will not lift to VFR until mid-day. Winds will remain light
through the TAF period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR conditions will develop after 03z at all TAF sites. A weak cold
front and associated wind shift will pass KSJT around 03z, and KBBD
around 06z. VFR conditions will return to all terminals after 17z.

Doll

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front is moving into the Big Country, and will slowly
move through all of West Central Texas overnight. A few light
showers will be possible this afternoon and tonight, and I have kept
PoPs in the slight chance category across all of the area. The front
will result in slightly cooler temperatures and a wind shift to the
north. I lowered temperatures slightly, but abundant cloud cover
overnight should help to keep temperatures up somewhat. Isolated
showers will still be possible Friday morning, but any precipitation
should end by late morning/early afternoon. Highs on Friday were a
bit tricky and will be dependent on cloud cover. The coolest
readings will be across the Big Country and Heartland where cloud
cover will persist into the afternoon, with the warmest readings
across the Interstate 10 corridor.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

The primary forecast concern in the long-term is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms this weekend, possibly lingering into
Monday.

The synoptic pattern will be characterized by shortwave ridging over
the Southern Plains, with bookend shortwave troughs located to the
east and west. As the western trough approaches, large scale ascent
will increase across the region. Showers are expected to develop
over Far West TX late Friday, spreading slowly eastward Friday night
into Saturday. I trimmed back the PoPs for Friday night, basically
keeping the precipitation potential confined to Crockett County
through sunrise. However, this activity is expected to move into the
Big Country and Concho Valley during the day. CAPE profiles look
rather thin, suggesting relatively weak updrafts typically
associated with your garden variety thunderstorms. Temperatures
during this time will generally range from the mid/upper 50s to the
mid 70s.

Warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen as we move into
Sunday, becoming nearly adiabatic between 750 mb and 550 mb. GFS and
NAM BUFR soundings indicate SBCAPE values increasing to around 2000
J/kg by Sunday afternoon with a 0-6km bulk shear magnitude of 40-50
kts. However, mid-level winds look relatively weak and are resulting
in an ugly hodograph. There is some potential for severe convection
during the Sunday afternoon/evening period, so this will be
mentioned in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

This precipitation is expected to end Sunday night as the primary
trough axis passes to the east. A weak surface boundary will move
south into West Central TX Monday night but is expected to stall
before eventually washing out, having little affect on temperatures
and moisture. In fact, temperatures are expected to warm into the
mid/upper 80s Monday afternoon. This boundary may, however, serve
as a focus for isolated diurnal convection Monday afternoon. I did
maintain the area of 20% PoPs, but I trimmed it down to the
southeast corner of the CWA.

Generally dry weather is expected on Tuesday with temperatures
warming into the lower 90s. West to southwest flow aloft will induce
lee cyclogenesis, promoting gusty south winds by mid-week. This may
also set the stage for the dryline to move away from the higher
terrain, propagating east into the CWA during the day and sloshing
back to the west overnight. Whether or not the dryline is able to
support convection remains to be seen. Shear/instability parameters
look good, but the southwest winds aloft will aid in the development
of an elevated mixed layer which tends to cap off surface based
convection. However, with the approaching trough, the large scale
forcing may be sufficient to offset the warming aloft. I did not
include PoPs for Wednesday or Thursday, but we`ll have to monitor
the model trends as this system evolves.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  52  74  57  77 /  20  20  10  10  20
San Angelo  73  54  78  58  78 /  10  20  10  10  30
Junction  72  56  78  58  78 /  10  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Doll









000
FXUS64 KEWX 180319
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1019 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FOG DEVELOPING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE LIGHT RAIN TODAY THE LOW LEVELS ARE NEAR SATURATION AND
FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. EXPECT THIS
DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE/
A NEAR SOLID LAYER OF CLOUDS WITH LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. LATER THIS EVENING...THE SUBSIDENCE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH SHOULD TURN MOST SURFACE WINDS MORE
FROM THE NE AND STABILIZE CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL TX AROUND AUS.
OVER SAT/SSF...CONDITIONS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL VERTICAL
VIEWS SHOWING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DRIZZLE. DIPS INTO LIFR AND EVEN VLIFR CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND AUS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
THE LIGHT WIND TRENDS WILL KEEP TAFS MAINLY LIFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT. INCREASING MID-LEVEL STABILITY FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
THINNING CLOUD LAYER AND CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
TRANSLATES EAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SUBTLE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND SHIFT...
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...EXCEPT ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN PROXIMITY TO A MID-
LEVEL (700-500MB) THETA-E RIDGE AXIS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES BY EARLY SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO TEXAS...THERE IS
A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THIS UPPER TROUGH.
ON SATURDAY...THE BETTER LIFT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NEARBY RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH
THESE AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS MOVING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO. MID-LEVEL LIFT SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND WE/LL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST ON MONDAY. WE/LL HANG ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A DRY AND WARM FORECAST IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL
RIDGING SETS UP. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED...BUT AT THIS TIME THE TROUGH
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO WARRANT A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  79  57  81  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  79  55  81  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  80  57  82  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  77  56  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  82  64  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  77  57  80  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  83  59  82  64 /  20  10  10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  79  56  80  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   57  80  56  81  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  81  58  82  63 /  20  10  10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  82  59  83  64 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KFWD 180318 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1018 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM HILLSBORO NORTH THROUGH THE
METROPLEX AND TOWARD THE RED RIVER...MOVING EAST ALONG THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITH AN ASSIST FROM THE BROAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HAVE ADJUST POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING...FROM VFR TO MVFR AND DOWN TO IFR IN WESTERN METROPLEX.
-RA SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON UNTIL SHORT WAVE PULLS OUT LATER
THIS EVENING. WITHOUT RAIN TO SATURATE LLVLS I EXPECT THE TEMPO
IFR IN FTW AND AFW TO END. FAIRLY STAGNANT LLVL FLOW OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND NO FORCING TO BLOW OUT THIS SOUPY
WX MEANS I CANNOT AGREE WITH GUIDANCE THAT IS RAISING CEILINGS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS IS AUGMENTED BY THE POOR JOB THEY DID
YESTERDAY EVENING ON THE OVERNIGHT CEILINGS AS WELL. WILL KEEP
MVFR CIGS THROUGH MORNING. WACO HAS NOT SEEN THE DRIZZLE/RAIN THAT
THE METROPLEX HAS...AND HAS HIGHER CEILINGS CURRENTLY BUT STILL
EXPECT MVFR CIGS THERE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. 84




&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF BRECKENRIDGE...
SITTING ALONG A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL EASE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...WEAK FORCING WILL FROM
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
SKIM ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF OF I-20 THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN PASS TO
OUR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

IT APPEARS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS  WEST OF I-35. THE WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT BELOW
850MB FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EAST TOWARD THE I-35/45 CORRIDORS
OVERNIGHT...THEN LINGERING MAINLY WEST OF I-35 EAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION AS WELL. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
NORTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY MID-LATE MORNING FRIDAY WITH ALL
WEATHER ELEMENTS ENDING. ANY FOG WILL BE OF THE LIGHT VARIETY AND
NOT DENSE. RAINFALL VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE WEST WILL BE VERY LIGHT
AS WELL...MOSTLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...OR ENOUGH TO WET THE
GRASS.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN. THIS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS SHORT-LIVED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
WARM THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 70S AND HIGHS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
IN THE RISE WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTH WINDS WILL
RETURN ON SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FINALLY OPENS UP AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. BY SATURDAY EVENING...A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS
ARE ALSO MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 CLOSER TO THE
PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SBCAPE WITH MOST VALUES BELOW 500 J/KG AND SOME SORT OF
CAP...HOWEVER...VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOSER TO THE RED
RIVER. WHERE SBCAPE IS LACKING THERE IS AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
CAPE PRESENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SBCAPE MINIMAL.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT CONTINUES TO APPEAR LOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS LOW TOO BUT WITH EVEN MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER. EVEN THOUGH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...A ROGUE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...POSSIBLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN WE MAY GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK AND THE
LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE NEARLY MAXIMIZED.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TROUGH
FOR A FEW DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT EVEN THE ECMWF
HAS SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

82/JLD



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  77  59  79  64 /  20  10  10  10  20
WACO, TX              54  75  56  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  20
PARIS, TX             50  74  55  75  59 /  30  10  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            51  75  55  78  61 /  30  10  10  10  30
MCKINNEY, TX          51  75  53  77  61 /  40  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            55  77  59  79  63 /  30  10  10  10  20
TERRELL, TX           52  75  54  77  61 /  30  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         54  76  58  78  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            55  76  55  78  59 /  20  10  10  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     54  74  56  79  60 /  20  10  10  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

84/05






000
FXUS64 KLUB 180317
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1017 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE. WITH WINDS
COMMENCING TO VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. KCDS HAS DROPPED BELOW
10SM...THOUGH STILL VFR BUT THIS IS SUGGESTIVE OF FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED PATCHY FOG INITIALLY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS...THEN EXPANDING IT TO THE SOUTH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
KLBB CLOUD DECKS HAVE RISEN TO VFR CRITERIA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH KCDS DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR. WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE THE FILTERING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE RETURN OF MVFR CLOUDS AT KLBB.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/HAZE HAPPENED EARLIER THIS MORNING/AFTN AT BOTH
TAF SITES...AND WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OCCURRING
TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF FOG IS PLAUSIBLE. HAVE ADDED MVFR VIS FOR
FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES ATTM. TOMORROW MID- MORNING ANY LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL SCOUR OUT AS WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING STILL A BIT OF JET ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THAT AREA PER KCDS METAR...A FEW WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS...AND
AREA RADARS. TIMING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL SOLUTION
SHIFTING LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z AND WILL KEEP
POPS JUST BELOW 15 PCT ATTM.

SOME DRY ADVECTION COMING INTO THE NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS
SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO EITHER HANG IN OR RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY IF IT DOES
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM. PROSPECT OF SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS BUT
WITH CLEARING DURING THE AFTN AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. 12Z MOS SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WARMING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARMER
DEPENDING IN PART OF TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING.

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FOR THIS WEEKEND THO TIMING AND
COVERAGE SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THEY DO
SEEM TO HAVE A CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHEN
CONVECTION WILL START WITH THE NAM FIRING CONVECTION STARTING ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE AROUND LATE MORNING...THE GFS WAITING UNTIL
LATE EVENING...AND THE ECMWF STARTING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH THE /SLOWER/ TIMES AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POP
IN OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE
HELPFUL WITH AIDING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGEST CAPE VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SHOW MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND NO SHEAR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE. SOME STORMS HOWEVER MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AS THEY DECAY. THE NAM DISSIPATES CONVECTION QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE HAVING AN ENCORE SUNDAY EVENING AS IT PUSHES A
FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH. MOST MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
HINT AT SUCH HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FOR
THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TAPER THEM OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY REASON I HAVE NOT GONE HIGHER WITH POPS IS DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. I HAVE RAISED POPS SUNDAY EVENING TO JUST BELOW MENTION
FOR A SECOND PASS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL HAPPEN. HOPEFULLY THE OUTCOME
WILL BE MORE CLEARER TOMORROW AND I CAN ACT ACCORDINGLY.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
EVENING DEVELOPING A DRYLINE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE READILY
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HAS
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHO HAS STAYED ON THE DRY
SIDE. IF ANYTHING WILL COME OUT OF THIS IT WILL BE WIND AND PROBABLY
DUST. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  72  49  75  48 /   0   0  20  40  30
TULIA         43  73  50  75  50 /   0   0  10  40  30
PLAINVIEW     42  73  51  74  51 /   0   0  10  40  30
LEVELLAND     42  72  53  73  52 /   0   0  20  40  40
LUBBOCK       44  72  53  74  53 /   0   0  10  40  40
DENVER CITY   44  72  53  73  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    43  73  54  74  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     47  73  52  77  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
SPUR          45  74  53  76  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
ASPERMONT     49  75  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KHGX 180303
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1003 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER STILL WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AND LOWER CIGS TO THE
WEST WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS GOING ON AND PROBABLY WILL
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL ADD 20 POPS TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
THIS LIGHT PRECIP. WITH THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES HAVE OF
COURSE BEEN SLOW TO FALL AND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE CLOUD
COVER PERSISTING UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE HAVE RAISED MINS FOR TONIGHT
MAINLY NORTH OF A LIBERTY TO CONROE TO CALDWELL LINE 1 TO 3
DEGREES.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A COLD FRONT
CAN BE FOUND AROUND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND WILL
PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN START
TO VEER TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOME LOCATIONS SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY (PARTICULAR-
LY THE NERN CWA) BUT CLOUDS HAVE HELD FIRM ELSEWHERE. AS SUCH THE
CHANCE OF PCPN (ALBEIT LIGHT) IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TONIGHT COURTESY OF A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE. THE TIMING
OF THIS DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH THE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY SHRA THAT
DOES FORM GENERALLY ISOLATED.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT/GENERALLY QUIET WX PATTERN ON TAP THE NEXT
DAY OR SO GIVEN THE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT (AND REINFORCING COOL/DRY
AIRMASS FROM A WEAK COOL FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT). HOWEVER MODELS
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE RETURN OF INCREASING TEMPS/LOW LEVEL MOI-
STURE AND A RETURN OF LOW POPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
(SAT NIGHT/SUN). BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF SHOULD BE
WELL N/NE OF THE CWFA (AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING THIS WAY). A
BRIEF (BUT MUCH FLATTER) RIDGE ALOFT TO WILL BE IN PLACE TO START
THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER (PERHAPS STRONGER) UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
SET TO MOVE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS STARTING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS STILL NEAR BORDERLINE CONDITIONS FOR CAUTION CRITERIA
SO WILL LET THOSE FLAGS CONTINUE TO FLY UNTIL NEXT UPDATE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS WEAK FRONT/HIGH PRES
WILL MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
NNE THEN NE. LIGHT ONSHORE RESUMES SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THRU
NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE 2ND HALF AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  78  58  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  80  59  80  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  75  66  76  66 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KCRP 180114 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
814 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE REWORDED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT MORE
IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THAN SHOWERS...AND TO CONTINUE
MENTION PAST MIDNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATES DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM SFC TO H75
WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO H85...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL MOISTURE INFLUX THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  63  78  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          60  80  58  79  63  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  84  66  86  68  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             63  81  61  81  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  77  64  75  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  82  60  82  64  /  20  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  81  62  80  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  76  65  76  67  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79




000
FXUS64 KCRP 180114 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
814 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE REWORDED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT MORE
IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THAN SHOWERS...AND TO CONTINUE
MENTION PAST MIDNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATES DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM SFC TO H75
WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO H85...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL MOISTURE INFLUX THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  63  78  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          60  80  58  79  63  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  84  66  86  68  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             63  81  61  81  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  77  64  75  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  82  60  82  64  /  20  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  81  62  80  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  76  65  76  67  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79




000
FXUS64 KCRP 180114 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
814 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE REWORDED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT MORE
IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THAN SHOWERS...AND TO CONTINUE
MENTION PAST MIDNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATES DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM SFC TO H75
WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO H85...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL MOISTURE INFLUX THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  63  78  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          60  80  58  79  63  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  84  66  86  68  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             63  81  61  81  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  77  64  75  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  82  60  82  64  /  20  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  81  62  80  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  76  65  76  67  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79




000
FXUS64 KCRP 180114 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
814 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...HAVE REWORDED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT MORE
IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN THAN SHOWERS...AND TO CONTINUE
MENTION PAST MIDNIGHT. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z KCRP RAOB INDICATES DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM SFC TO H75
WITH EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO H85...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL MOISTURE INFLUX THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  63  78  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          60  80  58  79  63  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  84  66  86  68  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             63  81  61  81  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  77  64  75  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  82  60  82  64  /  20  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  81  62  80  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  76  65  76  67  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HART/79




000
FXUS64 KBRO 180025 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
725 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CELINGS ARE FALLING FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND NEW DATA
FROM THE EVENING BALLOON SHOWS HIGHER LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY
THAN EXPECTED SO HAVE AMENDED THE TAFS TO BE MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN
THE ORIGINAL 00Z PACKAGE NOW FORECASTING LIFR IN A FEW HOURS AT
HRL/BRO WITH IFR IN THE MEANTIME. IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
FOR THE IFR TO FULLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION BUT A WEAK
INVERSION AT AROUND 900 FT SHOULD HELP HOLD IT IN PLACE. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA
HELPING KEEP AN MVFR CLOUD DECK AND PERIODIC SPRINKLES IN PLACE.
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT CIG TO DROP THROUGH THE
EVENING TO IFR...MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT A LIFR
FORECAST BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT BY SUNRISE TONIGHT. A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS FORECAST BY MID MORNING AND CLOUD
DECKS MAY RISE ABOVE 3000 FT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 TO 12 KNOTS. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING A BRIEF DRYING
TREND THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH PWAT DECREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
FROM THE CURRENT INCH AND A HALF. A WEAK H5 RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE CAP WILL ERODE BUT NOT DISAPPEAR
COMPLETELY. LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT WILL BECOME UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ON FRIDAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN TSTMS OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS MAY NOT DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH
TSTMS INTO THE RGV...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FARTHER NORTH
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S ONCE AGAIN. KEPT AN ONGOING MENTION OF GENERAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE PATTERN ALOFT
IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH AND SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET SUCH THAT A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING
FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...RETURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE IN THE
REGION. THE PEAK OF THE INSTABILITY FROM THE H5 TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL ATTEMPT TO TAP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWER IN THE VICINITY SUNDAY. THESE WILL
NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT...MORE OF A SPLASH AND DASH SHOWER. THIS
MIDLEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
STRONGER RIDGING ARRIVING. THIS WILL KEEP ANY IMPULSES WELL AWAY
FROM THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES INCREASE
SLOWLY EACH DAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. NO RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL MAYBE THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
BUT WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF FROM THE NORTH. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE MODERATE RANGE...BUT COULD MEET EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AT
TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL
TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KNOTS CREATING SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SEAS TO 4 TO 5 FEET. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS
TO RELAX INTO MONDAY BACK DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT SOME CAUTION MAY BEEN URGED
FOR THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/59






000
FXUS64 KEWX 172355
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
655 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION... /ISSUED FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE/
A NEAR SOLID LAYER OF CLOUDS WITH LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. LATER THIS EVENING...THE SUBSIDENCE EFFECTS OF AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH SHOULD TURN MOST SURFACE WINDS MORE
FROM THE NE AND STABILIZE CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL TX AROUND AUS.
OVER SAT/SSF...CONDITIONS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN WITH MODEL VERTICAL
VIEWS SHOWING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DRIZZLE. DIPS INTO LIFR AND EVEN VLIFR CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND AUS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
THE LIGHT WIND TRENDS WILL KEEP TAFS MAINLY LIFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT. INCREASING MID-LEVEL STABILITY FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
THINNING CLOUD LAYER AND CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
TRANSLATES EAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SUBTLE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND SHIFT...
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...EXCEPT ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN PROXIMITY TO A MID-
LEVEL (700-500MB) THETA-E RIDGE AXIS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES BY EARLY SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO TEXAS...THERE IS
A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THIS UPPER TROUGH.
ON SATURDAY...THE BETTER LIFT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NEARBY RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH
THESE AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS MOVING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO. MID-LEVEL LIFT SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND WE/LL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST ON MONDAY. WE/LL HANG ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A DRY AND WARM FORECAST IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL
RIDGING SETS UP. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED...BUT AT THIS TIME THE TROUGH
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO WARRANT A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  79  57  81  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  79  55  81  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  80  57  82  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  77  56  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  82  64  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  77  57  80  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  83  59  82  64 /  20  10  10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  79  56  80  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   57  80  56  81  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  81  58  82  63 /  20  10  10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  82  59  83  64 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KFWD 172353 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF BRECKENRIDGE...
SITTING ALONG A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL EASE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...WEAK FORCING WILL FROM
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
SKIM ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF OF I-20 THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN PASS TO
OUR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

IT APPEARS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT
RAIN OR SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS  WEST OF I-35. THE WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT BELOW
850MB FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EAST TOWARD THE I-35/45 CORRIDORS
OVERNIGHT...THEN LINGERING MAINLY WEST OF I-35 EAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR HERE AND THERE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION AS WELL. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
NORTHERLY AROUND 10 MPH BY MID-LATE MORNING FRIDAY WITH ALL
WEATHER ELEMENTS ENDING. ANY FOG WILL BE OF THE LIGHT VARIETY AND
NOT DENSE. RAINFALL VERY LIGHT ACROSS THE WEST WILL BE VERY LIGHT
AS WELL...MOSTLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...OR ENOUGH TO WET THE
GRASS.

05/

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING...FROM VFR TO MVFR AND DOWN TO IFR IN WESTERN METROPLEX.
-RA SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON UNTIL SHORT WAVE PULLS OUT LATER
THIS EVENING. WITHOUT RAIN TO SATURATE LLVLS I EXPECT THE TEMPO
IFR IN FTW AND AFW TO END. FAIRLY STAGNANT LLVL FLOW OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND NO FORCING TO BLOW OUT THIS SOUPY
WX MEANS I CANNOT AGREE WITH GUIDANCE THAT IS RAISING CEILINGS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS IS AUGMENTED BY THE POOR JOB THEY DID
YESTERDAY EVENING ON THE OVERNIGHT CEILINGS AS WELL. WILL KEEP
MVFR CIGS THROUGH MORNING. WACO HAS NOT SEEN THE DRIZZLE/RAIN THAT
THE METROPLEX HAS...AND HAS HIGHER CEILINGS CURRENTLY BUT STILL
EXPECT MVFR CIGS THERE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. 84




&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN. THIS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS SHORT-LIVED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
WARM THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 70S AND HIGHS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
IN THE RISE WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTH WINDS WILL
RETURN ON SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FINALLY OPENS UP AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. BY SATURDAY EVENING...A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS
ARE ALSO MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 CLOSER TO THE
PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SBCAPE WITH MOST VALUES BELOW 500 J/KG AND SOME SORT OF
CAP...HOWEVER...VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOSER TO THE RED
RIVER. WHERE SBCAPE IS LACKING THERE IS AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
CAPE PRESENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SBCAPE MINIMAL.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT CONTINUES TO APPEAR LOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS LOW TOO BUT WITH EVEN MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER. EVEN THOUGH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...A ROGUE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...POSSIBLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN WE MAY GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK AND THE
LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE NEARLY MAXIMIZED.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TROUGH
FOR A FEW DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT EVEN THE ECMWF
HAS SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

82/JLD



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  77  59  79  64 /  20  10  10  10  20
WACO, TX              54  75  56  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  20
PARIS, TX             50  74  55  75  59 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            51  75  55  78  61 /  20  10  10  10  30
MCKINNEY, TX          51  75  53  77  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            55  77  59  79  63 /  20  10  10  10  20
TERRELL, TX           52  75  54  77  61 /  10  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         54  76  58  78  61 /  10  10  10  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            55  76  55  78  59 /  20  10  10  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     54  74  56  79  60 /  20  10  10  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

84/05






000
FXUS64 KFWD 172339
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND THROUGH THE
EVENING...FROM VFR TO MVFR AND DOWN TO IFR IN WESTERN METROPLEX.
-RA SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON UNTIL SHORT WAVE PULLS OUT LATER
THIS EVENING. WITHOUT RAIN TO SATURATE LLVLS I EXPECT THE TEMPO
IFR IN FTW AND AFW TO END. FAIRLY STAGNANT LLVL FLOW OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND NO FORCING TO BLOW OUT THIS SOUPY
WX MEANS I CANNOT AGREE WITH GUIDANCE THAT IS RAISING CEILINGS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS IS AUGMENTED BY THE POOR JOB THEY DID
YESTERDAY EVENING ON THE OVERNIGHT CEILINGS AS WELL. WILL KEEP
MVFR CIGS THROUGH MORNING. WACO HAS NOT SEEN THE DRIZZLE/RAIN THAT
THE METROPLEX HAS...AND HAS HIGHER CEILINGS CURRENTLY BUT STILL
EXPECT MVFR CIGS THERE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. 84



&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN. THIS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS SHORT-LIVED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
WARM THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 70S AND HIGHS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
IN THE RISE WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTH WINDS WILL
RETURN ON SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FINALLY OPENS UP AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. BY SATURDAY EVENING...A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS
ARE ALSO MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 CLOSER TO THE
PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SBCAPE WITH MOST VALUES BELOW 500 J/KG AND SOME SORT OF
CAP...HOWEVER...VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOSER TO THE RED
RIVER. WHERE SBCAPE IS LACKING THERE IS AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
CAPE PRESENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SBCAPE MINIMAL.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT CONTINUES TO APPEAR LOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS LOW TOO BUT WITH EVEN MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER. EVEN THOUGH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...A ROGUE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...POSSIBLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN WE MAY GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK AND THE
LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE NEARLY MAXIMIZED.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TROUGH
FOR A FEW DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT EVEN THE ECMWF
HAS SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

82/JLD

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  77  59  79  64 /  20  10  10  10  20
WACO, TX              54  75  56  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  20
PARIS, TX             50  74  55  75  59 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            51  75  55  78  61 /  20  10  10  10  30
MCKINNEY, TX          51  75  53  77  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            55  77  59  79  63 /  20  10  10  10  20
TERRELL, TX           52  75  54  77  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         54  76  58  78  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            55  76  55  78  59 /  20  10  10  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     54  74  56  79  60 /  20  10  10  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KAMA 172337
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
637 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE
A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND AROUND 5 TO
10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND THE MOIST
SURFACE WIND AND LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY THE
GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES AFTER 08Z TO 10Z FRIDAY AND THEN
LIFTING BY 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY. CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS AT AMARILLO WILL
BECOME VFR BY 02Z FRIDAY BUT THEN MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING DUE
TO SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3
MILES MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z TO 10Z
FRIDAY...AND 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY 18Z
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFTER 16Z FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE NORTHEAST
WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
THESE UPSLOPE WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL HELP WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IT SHOULD START TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING THIS
WAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE NOT INSERTED ANY PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS TIME AS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY AGAIN TICK UP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/06






000
FXUS64 KAMA 172337
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
637 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE
A LIGHT MOIST UPSLOPE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND AROUND 5 TO
10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF HIGHER CLOUDS AND THE MOIST
SURFACE WIND AND LOW CLOUDS...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY THE
GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES AFTER 08Z TO 10Z FRIDAY AND THEN
LIFTING BY 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY. CURRENT MVFR CEILINGS AT AMARILLO WILL
BECOME VFR BY 02Z FRIDAY BUT THEN MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING DUE
TO SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3
MILES MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z TO 10Z
FRIDAY...AND 15Z TO 16Z FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY 18Z
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFTER 16Z FRIDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE NORTHEAST
WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
THESE UPSLOPE WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL HELP WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IT SHOULD START TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING THIS
WAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE NOT INSERTED ANY PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS TIME AS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY AGAIN TICK UP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/06





000
FXUS64 KMAF 172336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Currently have NE winds across the region this evening and expect
winds to continue to veer to the east over the next several hours.
Low cigs currently hanging out over central TX but as winds become
more easterly, low level moisture will increase resulting in low cigs
at terminals by early morning Friday (roughly around 09-10Z). Have
kept mention of MVFR at all sites for now however forecast soundings
indicate ceilings could be lower with possibly some fog developing
at MAF and HOB for a couple of hours. Introduced IFR cigs at MAF but
no other site just yet. Will also hold off on mention of low vsbys
attm. Cloud deck should lift and scatter by 15-16Z Friday morning as
southeast winds return to the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will increase this weekend, followed by much warmer
temperatures and little chance of rain next week.

An ua trough over the southern U.S. Plains will continue to translate
eastward this afternoon and will be replaced by an ua ridge Friday.
A weak cold front continues to push south through the region today
with modest cooling being felt the most to the north of Interstate
20.  The surface ridge behind the front will not push south
through the region aggressively, so only northern reaches of the
forecast area will see low temperatures slightly below normal tonight.
Low level moisture will begin to return to the region tonight on
southeasterly winds on the backside of the said surface ridge,
with this process continuing Friday due to height falls ahead of
an approaching southern stream ua trough.  Portions of the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos could see isolated showers develop
late tonight, if not Friday morning as the first shortwave trough
ejecting ahead of the mentioned ua trough shears northeastward
over the area.  Suspect most locations will see nothing, so have
kept PoPs at a minimum.  A surface trough will develop over the
western reaches of the forecast area Friday afternoon as a
stronger shortwave trough impinges upon the area.  Have increased
PoPs in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in particular Friday
afternoon as it appears low level moisture should increase enough
for the heated higher terrain to possibly provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. Instability will not be very good, so do
not think any severe storms will be in the offing.

Friday night, expect showers and thunderstorms to increase out west
along the surface trough, then move northeastward into the Upper
Trans Pecos and perhaps the Permian Basin Saturday.  The latest NAM
is more progressive bringing precipitation eastward, with most other
operational models keeping precipitation closer to the surface trough
which will remain over western portions of the forecast area through
Saturday.  Have split the difference somewhat, but have put the
best chances of rain for the Permian Basin and the rest of the
eastern County Warning area on Saturday night.  Shear will
increase as the ua trough approaches, but the amount of instability
available for strong to severe storms will hinge upon how fast the
rain moves east on Saturday.  That is, if the precipitation does
hang back along the surface trough through much of the day Saturday,
then there will be a better chance the eastern half or so of the
forecast area will have some heating, which will increase
instability and the potential for severe thunderstorms.  For now,
have made a mention of strong thunderstorms in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook with perhaps a severe storm or two until it
becomes clear how this will pan out.  The ua trough will linger
over the area, if not a little further north over the Texas
Panhandle Sunday.  Have kept PoPs over southeast New Mexico, and
the eastern Permian Basin for now, but these will have to be
expanded southward if the ua trough proves to be a bit deeper.

Rain chances will cease Sunday night with upper ridging taking over
across the southern Conus next week.  An ua trough, or cutoff low,
is expected to form over the northwest U.S. by mid next week then
move eastward across the northern/central U.S. Plains.  We will have
a dryline over the area, but unless the ua trough deepens more than
current progs indicate, we will likely stay dry.  What appears more
certain is temperatures warming well above normal.  Expect high
temps will rise around 10 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday,
but will increase to around 15 degrees above normal, if not more,
Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition, fire weather concerns could be
on the increase as dry and windy conditions could develop Wednesday
onward.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KMAF 172336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Currently have NE winds across the region this evening and expect
winds to continue to veer to the east over the next several hours.
Low cigs currently hanging out over central TX but as winds become
more easterly, low level moisture will increase resulting in low cigs
at terminals by early morning Friday (roughly around 09-10Z). Have
kept mention of MVFR at all sites for now however forecast soundings
indicate ceilings could be lower with possibly some fog developing
at MAF and HOB for a couple of hours. Introduced IFR cigs at MAF but
no other site just yet. Will also hold off on mention of low vsbys
attm. Cloud deck should lift and scatter by 15-16Z Friday morning as
southeast winds return to the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will increase this weekend, followed by much warmer
temperatures and little chance of rain next week.

An ua trough over the southern U.S. Plains will continue to translate
eastward this afternoon and will be replaced by an ua ridge Friday.
A weak cold front continues to push south through the region today
with modest cooling being felt the most to the north of Interstate
20.  The surface ridge behind the front will not push south
through the region aggressively, so only northern reaches of the
forecast area will see low temperatures slightly below normal tonight.
Low level moisture will begin to return to the region tonight on
southeasterly winds on the backside of the said surface ridge,
with this process continuing Friday due to height falls ahead of
an approaching southern stream ua trough.  Portions of the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos could see isolated showers develop
late tonight, if not Friday morning as the first shortwave trough
ejecting ahead of the mentioned ua trough shears northeastward
over the area.  Suspect most locations will see nothing, so have
kept PoPs at a minimum.  A surface trough will develop over the
western reaches of the forecast area Friday afternoon as a
stronger shortwave trough impinges upon the area.  Have increased
PoPs in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in particular Friday
afternoon as it appears low level moisture should increase enough
for the heated higher terrain to possibly provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. Instability will not be very good, so do
not think any severe storms will be in the offing.

Friday night, expect showers and thunderstorms to increase out west
along the surface trough, then move northeastward into the Upper
Trans Pecos and perhaps the Permian Basin Saturday.  The latest NAM
is more progressive bringing precipitation eastward, with most other
operational models keeping precipitation closer to the surface trough
which will remain over western portions of the forecast area through
Saturday.  Have split the difference somewhat, but have put the
best chances of rain for the Permian Basin and the rest of the
eastern County Warning area on Saturday night.  Shear will
increase as the ua trough approaches, but the amount of instability
available for strong to severe storms will hinge upon how fast the
rain moves east on Saturday.  That is, if the precipitation does
hang back along the surface trough through much of the day Saturday,
then there will be a better chance the eastern half or so of the
forecast area will have some heating, which will increase
instability and the potential for severe thunderstorms.  For now,
have made a mention of strong thunderstorms in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook with perhaps a severe storm or two until it
becomes clear how this will pan out.  The ua trough will linger
over the area, if not a little further north over the Texas
Panhandle Sunday.  Have kept PoPs over southeast New Mexico, and
the eastern Permian Basin for now, but these will have to be
expanded southward if the ua trough proves to be a bit deeper.

Rain chances will cease Sunday night with upper ridging taking over
across the southern Conus next week.  An ua trough, or cutoff low,
is expected to form over the northwest U.S. by mid next week then
move eastward across the northern/central U.S. Plains.  We will have
a dryline over the area, but unless the ua trough deepens more than
current progs indicate, we will likely stay dry.  What appears more
certain is temperatures warming well above normal.  Expect high
temps will rise around 10 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday,
but will increase to around 15 degrees above normal, if not more,
Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition, fire weather concerns could be
on the increase as dry and windy conditions could develop Wednesday
onward.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KMAF 172336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Currently have NE winds across the region this evening and expect
winds to continue to veer to the east over the next several hours.
Low cigs currently hanging out over central TX but as winds become
more easterly, low level moisture will increase resulting in low cigs
at terminals by early morning Friday (roughly around 09-10Z). Have
kept mention of MVFR at all sites for now however forecast soundings
indicate ceilings could be lower with possibly some fog developing
at MAF and HOB for a couple of hours. Introduced IFR cigs at MAF but
no other site just yet. Will also hold off on mention of low vsbys
attm. Cloud deck should lift and scatter by 15-16Z Friday morning as
southeast winds return to the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will increase this weekend, followed by much warmer
temperatures and little chance of rain next week.

An ua trough over the southern U.S. Plains will continue to translate
eastward this afternoon and will be replaced by an ua ridge Friday.
A weak cold front continues to push south through the region today
with modest cooling being felt the most to the north of Interstate
20.  The surface ridge behind the front will not push south
through the region aggressively, so only northern reaches of the
forecast area will see low temperatures slightly below normal tonight.
Low level moisture will begin to return to the region tonight on
southeasterly winds on the backside of the said surface ridge,
with this process continuing Friday due to height falls ahead of
an approaching southern stream ua trough.  Portions of the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos could see isolated showers develop
late tonight, if not Friday morning as the first shortwave trough
ejecting ahead of the mentioned ua trough shears northeastward
over the area.  Suspect most locations will see nothing, so have
kept PoPs at a minimum.  A surface trough will develop over the
western reaches of the forecast area Friday afternoon as a
stronger shortwave trough impinges upon the area.  Have increased
PoPs in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in particular Friday
afternoon as it appears low level moisture should increase enough
for the heated higher terrain to possibly provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. Instability will not be very good, so do
not think any severe storms will be in the offing.

Friday night, expect showers and thunderstorms to increase out west
along the surface trough, then move northeastward into the Upper
Trans Pecos and perhaps the Permian Basin Saturday.  The latest NAM
is more progressive bringing precipitation eastward, with most other
operational models keeping precipitation closer to the surface trough
which will remain over western portions of the forecast area through
Saturday.  Have split the difference somewhat, but have put the
best chances of rain for the Permian Basin and the rest of the
eastern County Warning area on Saturday night.  Shear will
increase as the ua trough approaches, but the amount of instability
available for strong to severe storms will hinge upon how fast the
rain moves east on Saturday.  That is, if the precipitation does
hang back along the surface trough through much of the day Saturday,
then there will be a better chance the eastern half or so of the
forecast area will have some heating, which will increase
instability and the potential for severe thunderstorms.  For now,
have made a mention of strong thunderstorms in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook with perhaps a severe storm or two until it
becomes clear how this will pan out.  The ua trough will linger
over the area, if not a little further north over the Texas
Panhandle Sunday.  Have kept PoPs over southeast New Mexico, and
the eastern Permian Basin for now, but these will have to be
expanded southward if the ua trough proves to be a bit deeper.

Rain chances will cease Sunday night with upper ridging taking over
across the southern Conus next week.  An ua trough, or cutoff low,
is expected to form over the northwest U.S. by mid next week then
move eastward across the northern/central U.S. Plains.  We will have
a dryline over the area, but unless the ua trough deepens more than
current progs indicate, we will likely stay dry.  What appears more
certain is temperatures warming well above normal.  Expect high
temps will rise around 10 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday,
but will increase to around 15 degrees above normal, if not more,
Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition, fire weather concerns could be
on the increase as dry and windy conditions could develop Wednesday
onward.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KMAF 172336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
Currently have NE winds across the region this evening and expect
winds to continue to veer to the east over the next several hours.
Low cigs currently hanging out over central TX but as winds become
more easterly, low level moisture will increase resulting in low cigs
at terminals by early morning Friday (roughly around 09-10Z). Have
kept mention of MVFR at all sites for now however forecast soundings
indicate ceilings could be lower with possibly some fog developing
at MAF and HOB for a couple of hours. Introduced IFR cigs at MAF but
no other site just yet. Will also hold off on mention of low vsbys
attm. Cloud deck should lift and scatter by 15-16Z Friday morning as
southeast winds return to the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 135 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will increase this weekend, followed by much warmer
temperatures and little chance of rain next week.

An ua trough over the southern U.S. Plains will continue to translate
eastward this afternoon and will be replaced by an ua ridge Friday.
A weak cold front continues to push south through the region today
with modest cooling being felt the most to the north of Interstate
20.  The surface ridge behind the front will not push south
through the region aggressively, so only northern reaches of the
forecast area will see low temperatures slightly below normal tonight.
Low level moisture will begin to return to the region tonight on
southeasterly winds on the backside of the said surface ridge,
with this process continuing Friday due to height falls ahead of
an approaching southern stream ua trough.  Portions of the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos could see isolated showers develop
late tonight, if not Friday morning as the first shortwave trough
ejecting ahead of the mentioned ua trough shears northeastward
over the area.  Suspect most locations will see nothing, so have
kept PoPs at a minimum.  A surface trough will develop over the
western reaches of the forecast area Friday afternoon as a
stronger shortwave trough impinges upon the area.  Have increased
PoPs in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in particular Friday
afternoon as it appears low level moisture should increase enough
for the heated higher terrain to possibly provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. Instability will not be very good, so do
not think any severe storms will be in the offing.

Friday night, expect showers and thunderstorms to increase out west
along the surface trough, then move northeastward into the Upper
Trans Pecos and perhaps the Permian Basin Saturday.  The latest NAM
is more progressive bringing precipitation eastward, with most other
operational models keeping precipitation closer to the surface trough
which will remain over western portions of the forecast area through
Saturday.  Have split the difference somewhat, but have put the
best chances of rain for the Permian Basin and the rest of the
eastern County Warning area on Saturday night.  Shear will
increase as the ua trough approaches, but the amount of instability
available for strong to severe storms will hinge upon how fast the
rain moves east on Saturday.  That is, if the precipitation does
hang back along the surface trough through much of the day Saturday,
then there will be a better chance the eastern half or so of the
forecast area will have some heating, which will increase
instability and the potential for severe thunderstorms.  For now,
have made a mention of strong thunderstorms in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook with perhaps a severe storm or two until it
becomes clear how this will pan out.  The ua trough will linger
over the area, if not a little further north over the Texas
Panhandle Sunday.  Have kept PoPs over southeast New Mexico, and
the eastern Permian Basin for now, but these will have to be
expanded southward if the ua trough proves to be a bit deeper.

Rain chances will cease Sunday night with upper ridging taking over
across the southern Conus next week.  An ua trough, or cutoff low,
is expected to form over the northwest U.S. by mid next week then
move eastward across the northern/central U.S. Plains.  We will have
a dryline over the area, but unless the ua trough deepens more than
current progs indicate, we will likely stay dry.  What appears more
certain is temperatures warming well above normal.  Expect high
temps will rise around 10 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday,
but will increase to around 15 degrees above normal, if not more,
Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition, fire weather concerns could be
on the increase as dry and windy conditions could develop Wednesday
onward.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KSJT 172330
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
630 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR conditions will develop after 03z at all TAF sites. A weak cold
front and associated wind shift will pass KSJT around 03z, and KBBD
around 06z. VFR conditions will return to all terminals after 17z.

Doll

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front is moving into the Big Country, and will slowly
move through all of West Central Texas overnight. A few light
showers will be possible this afternoon and tonight, and I have kept
PoPs in the slight chance category across all of the area. The front
will result in slightly cooler temperatures and a wind shift to the
north. I lowered temperatures slightly, but abundant cloud cover
overnight should help to keep temperatures up somewhat. Isolated
showers will still be possible Friday morning, but any precipitation
should end by late morning/early afternoon. Highs on Friday were a
bit tricky and will be dependent on cloud cover. The coolest
readings will be across the Big Country and Heartland where cloud
cover will persist into the afternoon, with the warmest readings
across the Interstate 10 corridor.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

The primary forecast concern in the long-term is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms this weekend, possibly lingering into
Monday.

The synoptic pattern will be characterized by shortwave ridging over
the Southern Plains, with bookend shortwave troughs located to the
east and west. As the western trough approaches, large scale ascent
will increase across the region. Showers are expected to develop
over Far West TX late Friday, spreading slowly eastward Friday night
into Saturday. I trimmed back the PoPs for Friday night, basically
keeping the precipitation potential confined to Crockett County
through sunrise. However, this activity is expected to move into the
Big Country and Concho Valley during the day. CAPE profiles look
rather thin, suggesting relatively weak updrafts typically
associated with your garden variety thunderstorms. Temperatures
during this time will generally range from the mid/upper 50s to the
mid 70s.

Warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen as we move into
Sunday, becoming nearly adiabatic between 750 mb and 550 mb. GFS and
NAM BUFR soundings indicate SBCAPE values increasing to around 2000
J/kg by Sunday afternoon with a 0-6km bulk shear magnitude of 40-50
kts. However, mid-level winds look relatively weak and are resulting
in an ugly hodograph. There is some potential for severe convection
during the Sunday afternoon/evening period, so this will be
mentioned in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

This precipitation is expected to end Sunday night as the primary
trough axis passes to the east. A weak surface boundary will move
south into West Central TX Monday night but is expected to stall
before eventually washing out, having little affect on temperatures
and moisture. In fact, temperatures are expected to warm into the
mid/upper 80s Monday afternoon. This boundary may, however, serve
as a focus for isolated diurnal convection Monday afternoon. I did
maintain the area of 20% PoPs, but I trimmed it down to the
southeast corner of the CWA.

Generally dry weather is expected on Tuesday with temperatures
warming into the lower 90s. West to southwest flow aloft will induce
lee cyclogenesis, promoting gusty south winds by mid-week. This may
also set the stage for the dryline to move away from the higher
terrain, propagating east into the CWA during the day and sloshing
back to the west overnight. Whether or not the dryline is able to
support convection remains to be seen. Shear/instability parameters
look good, but the southwest winds aloft will aid in the development
of an elevated mixed layer which tends to cap off surface based
convection. However, with the approaching trough, the large scale
forcing may be sufficient to offset the warming aloft. I did not
include PoPs for Wednesday or Thursday, but we`ll have to monitor
the model trends as this system evolves.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  52  74  57  77 /  20  20  10  10  20
San Angelo  73  54  78  58  78 /  10  20  10  10  30
Junction  72  56  78  58  78 /  10  20  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Doll







000
FXUS64 KBRO 172324 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
624 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA
HELPING KEEP AN MVFR CLOUD DECK AND PERIODIC SPRINKLES IN PLACE.
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW EXPECT CIG TO DROP THROUGH THE
EVENING TO IFR...MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT A LIFR
FORECAST BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT BY SUNRISE TONIGHT. A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS FORECAST BY MID MORNING AND CLOUD
DECKS MAY RISE ABOVE 3000 FT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 TO 12 KNOTS. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING A BRIEF DRYING
TREND THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH PWAT DECREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
FROM THE CURRENT INCH AND A HALF. A WEAK H5 RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE CAP WILL ERODE BUT NOT DISAPPEAR
COMPLETELY. LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT WILL BECOME UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ON FRIDAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN TSTMS OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS MAY NOT DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH
TSTMS INTO THE RGV...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FARTHER NORTH
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S ONCE AGAIN. KEPT AN ONGOING MENTION OF GENERAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE PATTERN ALOFT
IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH AND SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET SUCH THAT A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING
FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...RETURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE IN THE
REGION. THE PEAK OF THE INSTABILITY FROM THE H5 TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL ATTEMPT TO TAP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWER IN THE VICINITY SUNDAY. THESE WILL
NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT...MORE OF A SPLASH AND DASH SHOWER. THIS
MIDLEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
STRONGER RIDGING ARRIVING. THIS WILL KEEP ANY IMPULSES WELL AWAY
FROM THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES INCREASE
SLOWLY EACH DAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. NO RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL MAYBE THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
BUT WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF FROM THE NORTH. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE MODERATE RANGE...BUT COULD MEET EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AT
TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL
TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KNOTS CREATING SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SEAS TO 4 TO 5 FEET. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS
TO RELAX INTO MONDAY BACK DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT SOME CAUTION MAY BEEN URGED
FOR THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68/59






000
FXUS64 KLUB 172322
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
KLBB CLOUD DECKS HAVE RISEN TO VFR CRITERIA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH KCDS DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR. WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE THE FILTERING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE RETURN OF MVFR CLOUDS AT KLBB.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/HAZE HAPPENED EARLIER THIS MORNING/AFTN AT BOTH
TAF SITES...AND WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OCCURRING
TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF FOG IS PLAUSIBLE. HAVE ADDED MVFR VIS FOR
FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES ATTM. TOMORROW MID- MORNING ANY LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL SCOUR OUT AS WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING STILL A BIT OF JET ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THAT AREA PER KCDS METAR...A FEW WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS...AND
AREA RADARS. TIMING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL SOLUTION
SHIFTING LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z AND WILL KEEP
POPS JUST BELOW 15 PCT ATTM.

SOME DRY ADVECTION COMING INTO THE NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS
SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO EITHER HANG IN OR RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY IF IT DOES
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM. PROSPECT OF SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS BUT
WITH CLEARING DURING THE AFTN AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. 12Z MOS SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WARMING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARMER
DEPENDING IN PART OF TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING.

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FOR THIS WEEKEND THO TIMING AND
COVERAGE SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THEY DO
SEEM TO HAVE A CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHEN
CONVECTION WILL START WITH THE NAM FIRING CONVECTION STARTING ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE AROUND LATE MORNING...THE GFS WAITING UNTIL
LATE EVENING...AND THE ECMWF STARTING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH THE /SLOWER/ TIMES AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POP
IN OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE
HELPFUL WITH AIDING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGEST CAPE VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SHOW MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND NO SHEAR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE. SOME STORMS HOWEVER MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AS THEY DECAY. THE NAM DISSIPATES CONVECTION QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE HAVING AN ENCORE SUNDAY EVENING AS IT PUSHES A
FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH. MOST MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
HINT AT SUCH HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FOR
THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TAPER THEM OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY REASON I HAVE NOT GONE HIGHER WITH POPS IS DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. I HAVE RAISED POPS SUNDAY EVENING TO JUST BELOW MENTION
FOR A SECOND PASS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL HAPPEN. HOPEFULLY THE OUTCOME
WILL BE MORE CLEARER TOMORROW AND I CAN ACT ACCORDINGLY.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
EVENING DEVELOPING A DRYLINE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE READILY
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HAS
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHO HAS STAYED ON THE DRY
SIDE. IF ANYTHING WILL COME OUT OF THIS IT WILL BE WIND AND PROBABLY
DUST. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  72  49  75  48 /   0   0  20  40  30
TULIA         43  73  50  75  50 /   0   0  10  40  30
PLAINVIEW     42  73  51  74  51 /   0   0  10  40  30
LEVELLAND     42  72  53  73  52 /   0   0  20  40  40
LUBBOCK       44  72  53  74  53 /   0   0  10  40  40
DENVER CITY   44  72  53  73  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    43  73  54  74  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     47  73  52  77  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
SPUR          45  74  53  76  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
ASPERMONT     49  75  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29






000
FXUS64 KCRP 172315 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
615 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO LIFR TONIGHT ALL
TERMINALS...AS EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES (BORDERLINE LIFR/IFR AT
KLRD). WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AS A
WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN
15Z-18Z (POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT EARLIER)...AND THEN VFR STARTING AT
KVCT ABOUT 18Z (CLOSER TO THE DRIEST AIR)...THEN 20Z-22Z REMAINDER
OF TERMINALS. FRIDAY MORNING WINDS INITIALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST
GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND EVEN SOUTHEAST
AT KLRD BY THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST. FINALLY AM GOING TO
KEEP/PUT IN SOME FOG IN TERMINALS...NEAR MVFR AT KCRP AND
KLRD...MVFR AT KALI...AND MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT KVCT GENERALLY BETWEEN
06Z AND 15Z (EVEN EARLIER AT KVCT). ONLY PRECIPITATION IN THE
TAF FORECAST IS THIS EVENING (VCSH) AT EASTERN TERMINALS...AS
RADAR STILL SHOWING SOME VERY WEAK ECHOES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MID LVL TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK SFC COOL FRONT TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE OVERCAST SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS RETURN FRI NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCES INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARD A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ALONG SHORE (ENE) WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION. SCEC CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF
WATERS THIS EVENING. MODERATE NE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BEFORE
RELAXING AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS ALLOWING
FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. KEPT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. UPPER TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER/MID 80S OVER THE VICTORIA REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW AS SOME DISCREPANCIES ARISE REGARDING STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF
UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  63  78  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          60  80  58  79  63  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  84  66  86  68  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             63  81  61  81  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  77  64  75  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  82  60  82  64  /  20  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  81  62  80  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  76  65  76  67  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KHGX 172308
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
608 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A COLD FRONT
CAN BE FOUND AROUND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND WILL
PUSH TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND WASH OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN START
TO VEER TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SOME LOCATIONS SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY (PARTICULAR-
LY THE NERN CWA) BUT CLOUDS HAVE HELD FIRM ELSEWHERE. AS SUCH THE
CHANCE OF PCPN (ALBEIT LIGHT) IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TONIGHT COURTESY OF A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE. THE TIMING
OF THIS DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH THE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY SHRA THAT
DOES FORM GENERALLY ISOLATED.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT/GENERALLY QUIET WX PATTERN ON TAP THE NEXT
DAY OR SO GIVEN THE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT (AND REINFORCING COOL/DRY
AIRMASS FROM A WEAK COOL FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT). HOWEVER MODELS
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE RETURN OF INCREASING TEMPS/LOW LEVEL MOI-
STURE AND A RETURN OF LOW POPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
(SAT NIGHT/SUN). BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF SHOULD BE
WELL N/NE OF THE CWFA (AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING THIS WAY). A
BRIEF (BUT MUCH FLATTER) RIDGE ALOFT TO WILL BE IN PLACE TO START
THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER (PERHAPS STRONGER) UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
SET TO MOVE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS STARTING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS STILL NEAR BORDERLINE CONDITIONS FOR CAUTION CRITERIA
SO WILL LET THOSE FLAGS CONTINUE TO FLY UNTIL NEXT UPDATE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS WEAK FRONT/HIGH PRES
WILL MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
NNE THEN NE. LIGHT ONSHORE RESUMES SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THRU
NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE 2ND HALF AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  78  58  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  80  59  80  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  75  66  76  66 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...23




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172122
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
319 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE BORDERLAND FRIDAY AND
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GIVING MUCH OF THE AREA A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY
BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE RAINFALL.
WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN A DRYING WARMUP SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL AND BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THE LOWLANDS COULD SEE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON. OF COURSE...AS USUAL...THIS WARMTH WILL COME WITH A
SPRING PRICE OF WINDS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS HAS LED TO CLEARING SKIES...ALTHOUGH WITH WEAK BACK DOOR COOL
FRONT THAT MOVED IN THIS MORNING WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. DECENT EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...ALLOWING
SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WEST SLOPES OF TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. UPPER
TROUGH MOVES TO EASTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BEGINNING TO
SPREAD CLOUDS TO THE AREA. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND SOME ADDED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AID IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
DEMING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BRING UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE EASTERN
CWA...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. VERY LITTLE
DIRECTION SHEAR OTHER THAN THE FAR EAST AND JUST MINOR SPEED SHEAR
SO ENVIRONMENT NOT REAL CONDUCIVE TO LONGER LASTING ROTATING CELLS.
PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY LOW WBZ AT AROUND 10-11K FT MSL SO
SOME DECENT HAIL PRODUCTION IS POSSIBLE. ALSO PROFILE SHAPE AND
DCAPE SHOWING SOME DOWNBURST POTENTIAL OF 45-50 MPH. BEST SHOT AT
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE FAR EAST WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER AND
WEAK DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST.

MAIN UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
SECONDARY VORTS PROGGED TO MOVE IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE MAIN
TROUGH ON SATURDAY. NOT AS GREAT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING BUT
AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE MORE UNSTABLE DESPITE SOME DRYING IN THE AIR
COLUMN. BETTER SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH. LAST VORT CENTER NOT
THROUGH THE CWA UNTIL MID DAY SUNDAY...LIKELY LEADING A FEW OF THE
MODELS TO CONTINUE WITH A FEW SHOWERS. OUR GRIDS DON`T REFLECT
THIS...ENDING PRECIP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RE ESTABLISH THE DRY
WARM PATTERN. TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE LOWLANDS COULD SEE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE
TEMPS OF THE SEASON. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...THIS WARMUP WILL COME WITH A PRICE. LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG MID
LEVEL WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL FORM STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGHING BOTH
DAYS AND ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME STRONG. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE STRONGEST...WITH WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 18/00Z-19/00Z...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS
WILL CAUSE SOME AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERAL CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z FRIDAY WILL BE P6SM
SKC-SCT250 AND WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5-15KTS. FROM 12Z TO 18Z
FRIDAY EXPECT P6SM FEW-SCT150 SCT-BKN250. AFTR 18Z FRIDAY P6SM
FEW-SCT120 SCT-BKN200 WITH ISOLD-SCTD TSTMS. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS...STRONG WINDS...AND HAIL NEAR ANY TSTMS FRI AFTN.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WILL BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BRING WARM AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. MINIMUM HUMIDITY CLIMBING INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY WITH GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION AND HAINES
INDICES FROM 2 (VERY LOW) TO 4 (LOW).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  80  59  77  56 /   0   0  20  30  10
SIERRA BLANCA           47  78  52  76  50 /   0  10  30  40  20
LAS CRUCES              51  79  54  76  50 /   0   0  20  20  10
ALAMOGORDO              48  76  55  75  49 /   0   0  20  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              32  58  42  55  40 /   0  10  30  30  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   48  75  54  72  52 /   0  10  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             45  70  48  68  46 /   0  20  20  20  20
DEMING                  45  76  51  76  49 /   0  10  20  20  10
LORDSBURG               50  72  50  74  48 /   0  10  20  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      54  81  58  77  54 /   0   0  20  30  10
DELL CITY               45  79  53  75  45 /   0  10  30  40  20
FORT HANCOCK            52  82  56  81  55 /   0  10  30  30  20
LOMA LINDA              46  74  53  72  46 /   0   0  20  40  20
FABENS                  52  80  55  78  51 /   0   0  20  30  20
SANTA TERESA            50  79  56  77  50 /   0   0  20  20  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          54  79  55  76  55 /   0   0  20  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           38  78  46  75  44 /   0   0  20  20  20
HATCH                   42  77  49  76  44 /   0   0  20  20  10
COLUMBUS                52  76  56  76  53 /   0   0  20  20  10
OROGRANDE               47  79  54  76  53 /   0   0  20  30  20
MAYHILL                 38  69  47  63  42 /   0  20  30  30  20
MESCALERO               36  66  45  61  40 /   0  20  30  40  20
TIMBERON                36  65  43  59  39 /   0  10  30  30  20
WINSTON                 42  68  50  68  41 /   0  20  20  30  20
HILLSBORO               48  72  52  70  51 /   0  10  20  30  20
SPACEPORT               45  73  49  73  49 /   0   0  20  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            40  62  43  62  39 /   0  20  20  30  20
HURLEY                  46  72  50  71  45 /   0  20  20  20  10
CLIFF                   32  70  44  71  40 /   0  20  20  30  10
MULE CREEK              29  69  42  70  37 /   0  20  20  20  10
FAYWOOD                 46  72  49  71  45 /   0  20  20  20  20
ANIMAS                  51  72  51  73  49 /   0  10  20  20   0
HACHITA                 45  73  49  76  47 /   0  10  20  20   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          50  75  52  76  50 /   0  10  20  20   0
CLOVERDALE              46  72  48  73  44 /   0  20  20  20   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/PARK









000
FXUS64 KFWD 172039
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN. THIS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING THIS EVENING. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS SHORT-LIVED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
WARM THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 70S AND HIGHS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
IN THE RISE WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S LATER
THIS WEEKEND.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOVING EAST INTO WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTH WINDS WILL
RETURN ON SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FINALLY OPENS UP AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. BY SATURDAY EVENING...A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL
GRAZE THE REGION TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS
ARE ALSO MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 CLOSER TO THE
PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SBCAPE WITH MOST VALUES BELOW 500 J/KG AND SOME SORT OF
CAP...HOWEVER...VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLOSER TO THE RED
RIVER. WHERE SBCAPE IS LACKING THERE IS AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
CAPE PRESENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SBCAPE MINIMAL.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT CONTINUES TO APPEAR LOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS LOW TOO BUT WITH EVEN MINIMAL
INSTABILITY AND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER. EVEN THOUGH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL...A ROGUE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...POSSIBLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN WE MAY GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK AND THE
LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE NEARLY MAXIMIZED.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TROUGH
FOR A FEW DAYS OF QUIET WEATHER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
DEVELOPING STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE
THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT EVEN THE ECMWF
HAS SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  77  59  79  64 /  20  10  10  10  20
WACO, TX              54  75  56  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  20
PARIS, TX             50  74  55  75  59 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            51  75  55  78  61 /  20  10  10  10  30
MCKINNEY, TX          51  75  53  77  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            55  77  59  79  63 /  20  10  10  10  20
TERRELL, TX           52  75  54  77  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         54  76  58  78  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            55  76  55  78  59 /  20  10  10  10  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     54  74  56  79  60 /  20  10  10  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/82






000
FXUS64 KHGX 172033
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOME LOCATIONS SEEING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY (PARTICULAR-
LY THE NERN CWA) BUT CLOUDS HAVE HELD FIRM ELSEWHERE. AS SUCH THE
CHANCE OF PCPN (ALBEIT LIGHT) IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TONIGHT COURTESY OF A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE. THE TIMING
OF THIS DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH THE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY SHRA THAT
DOES FORM GENERALLY ISOLATED.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT/GENERALLY QUIET WX PATTERN ON TAP THE NEXT
DAY OR SO GIVEN THE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT (AND REINFORCING COOL/DRY
AIRMASS FROM A WEAK COOL FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT). HOWEVER MODELS
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE RETURN OF INCREASING TEMPS/LOW LEVEL MOI-
STURE AND A RETURN OF LOW POPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND
(SAT NIGHT/SUN). BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF SHOULD BE
WELL N/NE OF THE CWFA (AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING THIS WAY). A
BRIEF (BUT MUCH FLATTER) RIDGE ALOFT TO WILL BE IN PLACE TO START
THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER (PERHAPS STRONGER) UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
SET TO MOVE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS STARTING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE WARMER AND LIKELY MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK. 41

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS STILL NEAR BORDERLINE CONDITIONS FOR CAUTION CRITERIA
SO WILL LET THOSE FLAGS CONTINUE TO FLY UNTIL NEXT UPDATE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS WEAK FRONT/HIGH PRES
WILL MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT CAUSING WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
NNE THEN NE. LIGHT ONSHORE RESUMES SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THRU
NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE 2ND HALF AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      57  78  58  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              58  80  59  80  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  75  66  76  66 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KEWX 172030
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
TRANSLATES EAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SUBTLE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND SHIFT...
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...EXCEPT ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN PROXIMITY TO A MID-
LEVEL (700-500MB) THETA-E RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASES BY EARLY SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO TEXAS...THERE IS
A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN THIS UPPER TROUGH.
ON SATURDAY...THE BETTER LIFT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NEARBY RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH
THESE AREAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS MOVING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO. MID-LEVEL LIFT SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND WE/LL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST ON MONDAY. WE/LL HANG ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A DRY AND WARM FORECAST IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL
RIDGING SETS UP. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED...BUT AT THIS TIME THE TROUGH
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO WARRANT A
DRY AND WARM FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              58  79  57  81  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  56  79  55  81  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     56  80  57  82  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            56  77  56  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  82  64  82  64 /  20  20  20  30  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  77  57  80  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             60  83  59  82  64 /  20  10  10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        56  79  56  80  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   57  80  56  81  62 /  20  10  10  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       59  81  58  82  63 /  20  10  10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           60  82  59  83  64 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32







000
FXUS64 KLUB 172010
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING STILL A BIT OF JET ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THAT AREA PER KCDS METAR...A FEW WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS...AND
AREA RADARS. TIMING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL SOLUTION
SHIFTING LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z AND WILL KEEP
POPS JUST BELOW 15 PCT ATTM.

SOME DRY ADVECTION COMING INTO THE NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS
SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO EITHER HANG IN OR RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY IF IT DOES
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM. PROSPECT OF SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS BUT
WITH CLEARING DURING THE AFTN AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. 12Z MOS SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WARMING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARMER
DEPENDING IN PART OF TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FOR THIS WEEKEND THO TIMING AND
COVERAGE SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THEY DO
SEEM TO HAVE A CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHEN
CONVECTION WILL START WITH THE NAM FIRING CONVECTION STARTING ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE AROUND LATE MORNING...THE GFS WAITING UNTIL
LATE EVENING...AND THE ECMWF STARTING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH THE /SLOWER/ TIMES AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POP
IN OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE
HELPFUL WITH AIDING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGEST CAPE VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SHOW MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND NO SHEAR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE. SOME STORMS HOWEVER MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AS THEY DECAY. THE NAM DISSIPATES CONVECTION QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE HAVING AN ENCORE SUNDAY EVENING AS IT PUSHES A
FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH. MOST MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
HINT AT SUCH HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FOR
THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TAPER THEM OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY REASON I HAVE NOT GONE HIGHER WITH POPS IS DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. I HAVE RAISED POPS SUNDAY EVENING TO JUST BELOW MENTION
FOR A SECOND PASS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL HAPPEN. HOPEFULLY THE OUTCOME
WILL BE MORE CLEARER TOMORROW AND I CAN ACT ACCORDINGLY.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
EVENING DEVELOPING A DRYLINE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE READILY
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HAS
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHO HAS STAYED ON THE DRY
SIDE. IF ANYTHING WILL COME OUT OF THIS IT WILL BE WIND AND PROBABLY
DUST. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  72  49  75  48 /   0   0  20  40  30
TULIA         43  73  50  75  50 /   0   0  10  40  30
PLAINVIEW     42  73  51  74  51 /   0   0  10  40  30
LEVELLAND     42  72  53  73  52 /   0   0  20  40  40
LUBBOCK       43  72  53  74  53 /   0   0  10  40  40
DENVER CITY   44  72  53  73  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    43  73  54  74  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     47  73  52  77  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
SPUR          45  74  53  76  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
ASPERMONT     49  75  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51






000
FXUS64 KSJT 172004
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
304 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

A weak cold front is moving into the Big Country, and will slowly
move through all of West Central Texas overnight. A few light
showers will be possible this afernoon and tonight, and I have kept
PoPs in the slight chance category across all of the area. The front
will result in slightly cooler temperatures and a wind shift to the
north. I lowered temperatures slightly, but abundant cloud cover
overnight should help to keep temperatures up somewhat. Isolated
showers will still be possible Friday morning, but any precipitation
should end by late morning/early afternoon. Highs on Friday were a
bit tricky and will be dependent on cloud cover. The coolest
readings will be acoss the Big Country and Heartland where cloud
cover will persist into the afternoon, with the warmest readings
across the Interstate 10 corridor.

Daniels

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

The primary forecast concern in the long-term is the potential for
showers and thunderstorms this weekend, possibly lingering into
Monday.

The synoptic pattern will be characterized by shortwave ridging over
the Southern Plains, with bookend shortwave troughs located to the
east and west. As the western trough approaches, large scale ascent
will increase across the region. Showers are expected to develop
over Far West TX late Friday, spreading slowly eastward Friday night
into Saturday. I trimmed back the PoPs for Friday night, basically
keeping the precipitation potential confined to Crockett County
through sunrise. However, this activity is expected to move into the
Big Country and Concho Valley during the day. CAPE profiles look
rather thin, suggesting relatively weak updrafts typically
associated with your garden variety thunderstorms. Temperatures
during this time will generally range from the mid/upper 50s to the
mid 70s.

Warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen as we move into
Sunday, becoming nearly adiabatic between 750 mb and 550 mb. GFS and
NAM BUFR soundings indicate SBCAPE values increasing to around 2000
J/kg by Sunday afternoon with a 0-6km bulk shear magnitude of 40-50
kts. However, mid-level winds look relatively weak and are resulting
in an ugly hodograph. There is some potential for severe convection
during the Sunday afternoon/evening period, so this will be
mentioned in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

This precipitation is expected to end Sunday night as the primary
trough axis passes to the east. A weak surface boundary will move
south into West Central TX Monday night but is expected to stall
before eventually washing out, having little affect on temperatures
and moisture. In fact, temperatures are expected to warm into the
mid/upper 80s Monday afternoon. This boundary may, however, serve
as a focus for isolated diurnal convection Monday afternoon. I did
maintain the area of 20% PoPs, but I trimmed it down to the
southeast corner of the CWA.

Generally dry weather is expected on Tuesday with temperatures
warming into the lower 90s. West to southwest flow aloft will induce
lee cyclogenesis, promoting gusty south winds by mid-week. This may
also set the stage for the dryline to move away from the higher
terrain, propagating east into the CWA during the day and sloshing
back to the west overnight. Whether or not the dryline is able to
support convection remains to be seen. Shear/instability parameters
look good, but the southwest winds aloft will aid in the development
of an elevated mixed layer which tends to cap off surface based
convection. However, with the approaching trough, the large scale
forcing may be sufficient to offset the warming aloft. I did not
include PoPs for Wednesday or Thursday, but we`ll have to monitor
the model trends as this system evolves.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  52  74  57  77  60 /  20  10  10  20  50
San Angelo  54  78  58  78  60 /  20  10  10  30  40
Junction  56  78  58  78  60 /  20  10  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

14/25





000
FXUS64 KAMA 172000
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE NORTHEAST
WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
THESE UPSLOPE WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL HELP WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IT SHOULD START TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING THIS
WAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE NOT INSERTED ANY PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS TIME AS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY AGAIN TICK UP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                39  72  50  75  51 /   0   0  10  20  30
BEAVER OK                  41  74  50  82  55 /   0   0   5  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              38  77  50  76  48 /   0   0  10  20  30
BORGER TX                  45  74  54  79  55 /   0   0  10  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              40  76  51  79  50 /   0   0  20  20  30
CANYON TX                  38  73  49  75  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
CLARENDON TX               43  71  50  74  55 /   0   0  10  30  30
DALHART TX                 36  75  47  76  47 /   0   0  20  20  30
GUYMON OK                  39  76  49  79  50 /   0   0  10  20  30
HEREFORD TX                38  73  50  75  48 /   0   0  20  20  30
LIPSCOMB TX                42  73  51  78  56 /   0   0   5  30  40
PAMPA TX                   42  71  49  74  54 /   0   0  10  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                44  69  50  76  55 /   0   0  10  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              46  70  51  76  56 /   0   0  10  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15




000
FXUS64 KAMA 172000
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE NORTHEAST
WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
THESE UPSLOPE WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL HELP WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IT SHOULD START TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING THIS
WAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE NOT INSERTED ANY PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS TIME AS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY AGAIN TICK UP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                39  72  50  75  51 /   0   0  10  20  30
BEAVER OK                  41  74  50  82  55 /   0   0   5  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              38  77  50  76  48 /   0   0  10  20  30
BORGER TX                  45  74  54  79  55 /   0   0  10  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              40  76  51  79  50 /   0   0  20  20  30
CANYON TX                  38  73  49  75  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
CLARENDON TX               43  71  50  74  55 /   0   0  10  30  30
DALHART TX                 36  75  47  76  47 /   0   0  20  20  30
GUYMON OK                  39  76  49  79  50 /   0   0  10  20  30
HEREFORD TX                38  73  50  75  48 /   0   0  20  20  30
LIPSCOMB TX                42  73  51  78  56 /   0   0   5  30  40
PAMPA TX                   42  71  49  74  54 /   0   0  10  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                44  69  50  76  55 /   0   0  10  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              46  70  51  76  56 /   0   0  10  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15




000
FXUS64 KAMA 172000
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE NORTHEAST
WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
THESE UPSLOPE WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL HELP WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IT SHOULD START TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING THIS
WAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE NOT INSERTED ANY PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS TIME AS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY AGAIN TICK UP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                39  72  50  75  51 /   0   0  10  20  30
BEAVER OK                  41  74  50  82  55 /   0   0   5  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              38  77  50  76  48 /   0   0  10  20  30
BORGER TX                  45  74  54  79  55 /   0   0  10  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              40  76  51  79  50 /   0   0  20  20  30
CANYON TX                  38  73  49  75  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
CLARENDON TX               43  71  50  74  55 /   0   0  10  30  30
DALHART TX                 36  75  47  76  47 /   0   0  20  20  30
GUYMON OK                  39  76  49  79  50 /   0   0  10  20  30
HEREFORD TX                38  73  50  75  48 /   0   0  20  20  30
LIPSCOMB TX                42  73  51  78  56 /   0   0   5  30  40
PAMPA TX                   42  71  49  74  54 /   0   0  10  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                44  69  50  76  55 /   0   0  10  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              46  70  51  76  56 /   0   0  10  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15




000
FXUS64 KAMA 172000
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE NORTHEAST
WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES ON
THESE UPSLOPE WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL HELP WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO WE ARE EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND IT SHOULD START TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES.

THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING THIS
WAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HAVE NOT INSERTED ANY PRECIP CHANCES AT
THIS TIME AS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EASTER WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY AGAIN TICK UP AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                39  72  50  75  51 /   0   0  10  20  30
BEAVER OK                  41  74  50  82  55 /   0   0   5  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              38  77  50  76  48 /   0   0  10  20  30
BORGER TX                  45  74  54  79  55 /   0   0  10  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              40  76  51  79  50 /   0   0  20  20  30
CANYON TX                  38  73  49  75  49 /   0   0  10  20  30
CLARENDON TX               43  71  50  74  55 /   0   0  10  30  30
DALHART TX                 36  75  47  76  47 /   0   0  20  20  30
GUYMON OK                  39  76  49  79  50 /   0   0  10  20  30
HEREFORD TX                38  73  50  75  48 /   0   0  20  20  30
LIPSCOMB TX                42  73  51  78  56 /   0   0   5  30  40
PAMPA TX                   42  71  49  74  54 /   0   0  10  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                44  69  50  76  55 /   0   0  10  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              46  70  51  76  56 /   0   0  10  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15




000
FXUS64 KCRP 171946
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
246 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MID LVL TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK SFC COOL FRONT TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE OVERCAST SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS RETURN FRI NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCES INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARD A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ALONG SHORE (ENE) WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION. SCEC CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF
WATERS THIS EVENING. MODERATE NE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BEFORE
RELAXING AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS ALLOWING
FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. KEPT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. UPPER TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER/MID 80S OVER THE VICTORIA REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW AS SOME DISCREPANCIES ARISE REGARDING STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF
UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  63  78  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          60  80  58  79  63  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  84  66  86  68  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             63  81  61  81  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  77  64  75  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  82  60  82  64  /  20  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  81  62  80  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  76  65  76  67  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 171946
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
246 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MID LVL TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK SFC COOL FRONT TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE OVERCAST SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS RETURN FRI NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCES INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARD A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ALONG SHORE (ENE) WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION. SCEC CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF
WATERS THIS EVENING. MODERATE NE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BEFORE
RELAXING AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS ALLOWING
FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. KEPT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. UPPER TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER/MID 80S OVER THE VICTORIA REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW AS SOME DISCREPANCIES ARISE REGARDING STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF
UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  63  78  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          60  80  58  79  63  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  84  66  86  68  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             63  81  61  81  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  77  64  75  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  82  60  82  64  /  20  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  81  62  80  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  76  65  76  67  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 171946
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
246 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MID LVL TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK SFC COOL FRONT TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE OVERCAST SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS RETURN FRI NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCES INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARD A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ALONG SHORE (ENE) WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION. SCEC CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF
WATERS THIS EVENING. MODERATE NE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BEFORE
RELAXING AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS ALLOWING
FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. KEPT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. UPPER TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER/MID 80S OVER THE VICTORIA REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW AS SOME DISCREPANCIES ARISE REGARDING STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF
UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  63  78  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          60  80  58  79  63  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  84  66  86  68  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             63  81  61  81  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  77  64  75  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  82  60  82  64  /  20  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  81  62  80  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  76  65  76  67  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 171946
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
246 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MID LVL TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK SFC COOL FRONT TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANTICIPATE OVERCAST SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS RETURN FRI NIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCES INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARD A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ALONG SHORE (ENE) WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION. SCEC CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF
WATERS THIS EVENING. MODERATE NE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BEFORE
RELAXING AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS ALLOWING
FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. KEPT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOWS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. UPPER TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH
RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
OUT WEST TO LOWER/MID 80S OVER THE VICTORIA REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW AS SOME DISCREPANCIES ARISE REGARDING STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF
UPPER TROUGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  79  63  78  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          60  80  58  79  63  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            64  84  66  86  68  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             63  81  61  81  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  77  64  75  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  82  60  82  64  /  20  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        64  81  62  80  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  76  65  76  67  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KBRO 171843
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
143 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PROVIDING A BRIEF DRYING
TREND THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH PWAT DECREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
FROM THE CURRENT INCH AND A HALF. A WEAK H5 RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE CAP WILL ERODE BUT NOT DISAPPEAR
COMPLETELY. LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT WILL BECOME UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ON FRIDAY. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN TSTMS OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS MAY NOT DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH
TSTMS INTO THE RGV...BUT CONVECTION LOOKS LIKELY FARTHER NORTH
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LOW TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S ONCE AGAIN. KEPT AN ONGOING MENTION OF GENERAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE PATTERN ALOFT
IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH AND SUPPORTED SOMEWHAT BY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET SUCH THAT A SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE.


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE H5 RIDGE WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING
FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...RETURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE IN THE
REGION. THE PEAK OF THE INSTABILITY FROM THE H5 TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL ATTEMPT TO TAP SOME OF THIS MOISTURE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWER IN THE VICINITY SUNDAY. THESE WILL
NOT BE AN ALL DAY EVENT...MORE OF A SPLASH AND DASH SHOWER. THIS
MIDLEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
STRONGER RIDGING ARRIVING. THIS WILL KEEP ANY IMPULSES WELL AWAY
FROM THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES INCREASE
SLOWLY EACH DAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. NO RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL MAYBE THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
BUT WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF FROM THE NORTH. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE MODERATE RANGE...BUT COULD MEET EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AT
TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL
TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KNOTS CREATING SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FEET. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SEAS TO 4 TO 5 FEET. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS
TO RELAX INTO MONDAY BACK DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT SOME CAUTION MAY BEEN URGED
FOR THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  68  76  65  80 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          67  78  65  81 /  20  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            66  80  64  83 /  20  20  20  20
MCALLEN              67  82  65  85 /  20  20  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      67  83  64  86 /  20  20  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  74  66  77 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

54/64






000
FXUS64 KMAF 171835
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
135 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will increase this weekend, followed by much warmer
temperatures and little chance of rain next week.

An ua trough over the southern U.S. Plains will continue to translate
eastward this afternoon and will be replaced by an ua ridge Friday.
A weak cold front continues to push south through the region today
with modest cooling being felt the most to the north of Interstate
20.  The surface ridge behind the front will not push south
through the region aggressively, so only northern reaches of the
forecast area will see low temperatures slightly below normal tonight.
Low level moisture will begin to return to the region tonight on
southeasterly winds on the backside of the said surface ridge,
with this process continuing Friday due to height falls ahead of
an approaching southern stream ua trough.  Portions of the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos could see isolated showers develop
late tonight, if not Friday morning as the first shortwave trough
ejecting ahead of the mentioned ua trough shears northeastward
over the area.  Suspect most locations will see nothing, so have
kept PoPs at a minimum.  A surface trough will develop over the
western reaches of the forecast area Friday afternoon as a
stronger shortwave trough impinges upon the area.  Have increased
PoPs in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains in particular Friday
afternoon as it appears low level moisture should increase enough
for the heated higher terrain to possibly provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. Instability will not be very good, so do
not think any severe storms will be in the offing.

Friday night, expect showers and thunderstorms to increase out west
along the surface trough, then move northeastward into the Upper
Trans Pecos and perhaps the Permian Basin Saturday.  The latest NAM
is more progressive bringing precipitation eastward, with most other
operational models keeping precipitation closer to the surface trough
which will remain over western portions of the forecast area through
Saturday.  Have split the difference somewhat, but have put the
best chances of rain for the Permian Basin and the rest of the
eastern County Warning area on Saturday night.  Shear will
increase as the ua trough approaches, but the amount of instability
available for strong to severe storms will hinge upon how fast the
rain moves east on Saturday.  That is, if the precipitation does
hang back along the surface trough through much of the day Saturday,
then there will be a better chance the eastern half or so of the
forecast area will have some heating, which will increase
instability and the potential for severe thunderstorms.  For now,
have made a mention of strong thunderstorms in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook with perhaps a severe storm or two until it
becomes clear how this will pan out.  The ua trough will linger
over the area, if not a little further north over the Texas
Panhandle Sunday.  Have kept PoPs over southeast New Mexico, and
the eastern Permian Basin for now, but these will have to be
expanded southward if the ua trough proves to be a bit deeper.

Rain chances will cease Sunday night with upper ridging taking over
across the southern Conus next week.  An ua trough, or cutoff low,
is expected to form over the northwest U.S. by mid next week then
move eastward across the northern/central U.S. Plains.  We will have
a dryline over the area, but unless the ua trough deepens more than
current progs indicate, we will likely stay dry.  What appears more
certain is temperatures warming well above normal.  Expect high
temps will rise around 10 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday,
but will increase to around 15 degrees above normal, if not more,
Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition, fire weather concerns could be
on the increase as dry and windy conditions could develop Wednesday
onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 48  77  58  75  /  10  10  10  40
BIG SPRING TX              52  77  59  77  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                47  79  54  77  /   0  10  30  40
DRYDEN TX                  60  78  62  79  /  10  10  10  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  79  60  77  /  10  10  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          46  75  52  71  /  10  20  40  50
HOBBS NM                   44  76  53  74  /   0   0  20  40
MARFA TX                   42  75  51  73  /  10  20  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  78  59  76  /  10  10  20  30
ODESSA TX                  53  78  58  76  /  10  10  20  30
WINK TX                    52  80  59  80  /   0  10  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67




000
FXUS64 KCRP 171753
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS WILL START THE PERIOD ACROSS MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PRESENT...CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE FROM IFR-MVFR
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR AT MOST LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR TONIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SH/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP FRI
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY. THE INITIAL WAVE OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ENDED AS LEADING S/W MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE MAIN TROUGH IS STILL WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON PRESENTING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SH/TSRA. LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE AREA... MADE EVIDENT
BY THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE MID COAST. THE
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. TRIMMED
MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY PRIMIARLY OVER THE AREAS
IMPACTED BY DRIZZLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BROAD RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE MID WEST TOWARD
THE GULF COAST AND ENCOUNTERS LOWER PRESSURES IN THE GULF. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. ZONE UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  82  64  79  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          61  81  59  80  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            62  85  67  87  70  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             64  83  62  82  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  79  65  76  68  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  84  61  83  65  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        65  83  63  81  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  78  66  77  68  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 171753
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS WILL START THE PERIOD ACROSS MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PRESENT...CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE FROM IFR-MVFR
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR AT MOST LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR TONIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SH/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP FRI
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY. THE INITIAL WAVE OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ENDED AS LEADING S/W MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE MAIN TROUGH IS STILL WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON PRESENTING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SH/TSRA. LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE AREA... MADE EVIDENT
BY THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE MID COAST. THE
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. TRIMMED
MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY PRIMIARLY OVER THE AREAS
IMPACTED BY DRIZZLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BROAD RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE MID WEST TOWARD
THE GULF COAST AND ENCOUNTERS LOWER PRESSURES IN THE GULF. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. ZONE UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  82  64  79  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          61  81  59  80  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            62  85  67  87  70  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             64  83  62  82  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  79  65  76  68  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  84  61  83  65  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        65  83  63  81  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  78  66  77  68  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 171753
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS WILL START THE PERIOD ACROSS MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PRESENT...CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE FROM IFR-MVFR
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR AT MOST LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR TONIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SH/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP FRI
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY. THE INITIAL WAVE OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ENDED AS LEADING S/W MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE MAIN TROUGH IS STILL WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON PRESENTING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SH/TSRA. LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE AREA... MADE EVIDENT
BY THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE MID COAST. THE
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. TRIMMED
MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY PRIMIARLY OVER THE AREAS
IMPACTED BY DRIZZLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BROAD RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE MID WEST TOWARD
THE GULF COAST AND ENCOUNTERS LOWER PRESSURES IN THE GULF. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. ZONE UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  82  64  79  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          61  81  59  80  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            62  85  67  87  70  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             64  83  62  82  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  79  65  76  68  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  84  61  83  65  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        65  83  63  81  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  78  66  77  68  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 171753
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1253 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS WILL START THE PERIOD ACROSS MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PRESENT...CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE FROM IFR-MVFR
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MVFR AT MOST LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR TONIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SH/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP FRI
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY. THE INITIAL WAVE OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ENDED AS LEADING S/W MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE MAIN TROUGH IS STILL WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON PRESENTING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SH/TSRA. LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE AREA... MADE EVIDENT
BY THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE MID COAST. THE
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. TRIMMED
MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY PRIMIARLY OVER THE AREAS
IMPACTED BY DRIZZLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BROAD RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE MID WEST TOWARD
THE GULF COAST AND ENCOUNTERS LOWER PRESSURES IN THE GULF. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. ZONE UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  82  64  79  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          61  81  59  80  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            62  85  67  87  70  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             64  83  62  82  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  79  65  76  68  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  84  61  83  65  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        65  83  63  81  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  78  66  77  68  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KAMA 171753 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1253 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
EARLIER BAND OF RAIN THAT PRODUCED SOME GREATER THAN QUARTER INCH
TOTALS ACROSS THE CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE HAS WEAKENED IN TANDEM WITH
WEAKENING H7-H5 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY SUCH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO TWEAK AFTERNOON POPS
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND NUDGE TEMPS DOWNWARD IN SPOTS.

KB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER/LIFT INTO THE VFR
RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER AS NORTHEAST WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING A RETURN OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. HAVE INSERTED MVFR CONDITIONS
AT KAMA AND KGUY FROM ROUGHLY 08-15Z. WILL KEEP KDHT VFR FOR
NOW WHERE CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG IS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CONDITIONS COULD DROP INTO THE IFR
RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO GO LOWER THAN MVFR ATTM. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE MID TO LATE
FRIDAY MORNING...CLEARING OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA HAS
BEEN A DUD SO FAR. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED IN THE TX
AND OK PNHDLS. HAVE DECIDED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE POP VALUES FOR THIS
MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO LACK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CONTINUED TO PLACE HIGHEST POPS ERN HALF OF OK PNHDL EXTENDING INTO
ERN TX PNHDL AS THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THAT AREA
THIS MORNING. LEFT IN LINGERING SLGT CHC POPS FOR ONLY FAR ERN TX
PNHDL THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS SEEN TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST
RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE SRN STREAM FLOW IS PROGGED TO AFFECT SRN HIGH
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS PARTICULAR
SYSTEM. THE ONCE CONCERN IS THAT MOST MODELS ARE NOT VERY
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT POPS THIS WEEKEND AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LESS
AND LESS COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED QPF AMOUNTS THE PAST FEW RUNS.
BECAUSE OF THAT...DID NOT INCREASE POPS FOR ANY PERIOD FRI NIGHT THRU
SUNDAY FOR THIS FCST PCKG. SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FAR WRN TX PNHDL LOOK PLAUSIBLE...FOLLOWED
BY SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT AREAWIDE WITH A TRENDS
TOWARDS DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.

THE AXIS OF THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE PASSING OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORESEEN
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME AS IT APPEARS
WE MAY GET DRY SLOTTED FROM THE NEXT VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE OMITTED POPS FOR TUE AND WED.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MONDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES NEXT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15






000
FXUS64 KAMA 171753 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1253 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
EARLIER BAND OF RAIN THAT PRODUCED SOME GREATER THAN QUARTER INCH
TOTALS ACROSS THE CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE HAS WEAKENED IN TANDEM WITH
WEAKENING H7-H5 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY SUCH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO TWEAK AFTERNOON POPS
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND NUDGE TEMPS DOWNWARD IN SPOTS.

KB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER/LIFT INTO THE VFR
RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER AS NORTHEAST WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING A RETURN OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. HAVE INSERTED MVFR CONDITIONS
AT KAMA AND KGUY FROM ROUGHLY 08-15Z. WILL KEEP KDHT VFR FOR
NOW WHERE CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG IS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CONDITIONS COULD DROP INTO THE IFR
RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO GO LOWER THAN MVFR ATTM. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE MID TO LATE
FRIDAY MORNING...CLEARING OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA HAS
BEEN A DUD SO FAR. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED IN THE TX
AND OK PNHDLS. HAVE DECIDED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE POP VALUES FOR THIS
MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO LACK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CONTINUED TO PLACE HIGHEST POPS ERN HALF OF OK PNHDL EXTENDING INTO
ERN TX PNHDL AS THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THAT AREA
THIS MORNING. LEFT IN LINGERING SLGT CHC POPS FOR ONLY FAR ERN TX
PNHDL THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS SEEN TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST
RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE SRN STREAM FLOW IS PROGGED TO AFFECT SRN HIGH
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS PARTICULAR
SYSTEM. THE ONCE CONCERN IS THAT MOST MODELS ARE NOT VERY
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT POPS THIS WEEKEND AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LESS
AND LESS COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED QPF AMOUNTS THE PAST FEW RUNS.
BECAUSE OF THAT...DID NOT INCREASE POPS FOR ANY PERIOD FRI NIGHT THRU
SUNDAY FOR THIS FCST PCKG. SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FAR WRN TX PNHDL LOOK PLAUSIBLE...FOLLOWED
BY SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT AREAWIDE WITH A TRENDS
TOWARDS DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.

THE AXIS OF THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE PASSING OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORESEEN
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME AS IT APPEARS
WE MAY GET DRY SLOTTED FROM THE NEXT VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE OMITTED POPS FOR TUE AND WED.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MONDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES NEXT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15





000
FXUS64 KEWX 171746
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1246 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUD DECK WITH BASES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1500-2500FT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SCT V BKN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MOIST SLY FLOW
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALLOW THE DECK TO FILL-IN TO STEADY
BKN/OVC LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A LOWERING OF CIG
BASES ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...WITH REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD
SUNRISE. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS...BUT
CIGS WILL BE SLOWER TO LIFT/BREAK OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WE HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS TO COVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
MINOR CHANGES HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE WINDS AND DEW POINTS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD DECK TO MVFR LEVELS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING...BUT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD. LOW CLOUD DECKS WITH IFR
AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FOR
I-35 TAF SITES. LIGHT BR AND -DZ WILL OCCUR WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. KDRT
WILL STAY MOSTLY AT VFR LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT 7-12 KNOTS...TAPERING OFF
TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL CAUSE CIGS
WILL DROP FURTHER INTO IFR CATEGORIES THIS EVENING WITH BR AND -DZ
ACCOMPANYING IT. FOG MAY LOWER VSBY CATEGORIES DOWN TO IFR BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS WITH
A LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE
EASTERN HALF. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS DUE TO A FAVORABLE JET POSITION ENHANCING LIFT.
AS THE TROUGH AND JET MOVE EAST OF TEXAS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS NORTH ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES ON BRIEF DRYING ALOFT.
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS TODAY WARMING TO NEAR
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MIDWAY BETWEEN CALIFORNIA AND
HAWAII WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND SHOVING THE UPPER RIDGE
BACK SOUTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE
RATES...WEAK SHEAR AND ENHANCED BUOYANCY SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. ESPECIALLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS COMING OFF THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE TROUGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY SAG INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. HOWEVER...WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME AS 00Z MODELS RUNS SHOWING THIS FOR FIRST
TIME. WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG CAP OF WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND NO RAIN CHANCES. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  58  79  57  81 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  56  79  56  81 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  57  81  57  81 /  20  20  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  56  78  56  78 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           83  62  82  64  82 /  10  10  10  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  56  78  57  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  59  83  59  81 /  20  10  10  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  56  80  57  80 /  20  20  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  57  80  56  81 /  20  20  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  59  81  58  81 /  20  20  10  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  60  82  59  82 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32






000
FXUS64 KFWD 171739
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1239 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS WEAK AND THERE IS A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN
800-900MB THAT IS PRECIPITATING VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE. VSBY MAY DROP
TO 4SM IN HEAVIER AREAS OF DRIZZLE/MIST THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE
LOWEST OVER THE WESTERN METROPLEX WHERE THEY HAVE FALLEN BELOW
2000FT...BUT IT APPEARS NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER IS THICKER OVER
EASTERN SITES WITH KDAL STILL VFR. IFR CIGS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
REMAIN JUST WEST OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HARD TO SAY
WHETHER CIGS WILL DROP BELOW 2000FT THIS EVENING...BUT FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT METROPLEX SITES GENERALLY ABOVE
THIS LEVEL TONIGHT ON THE PRESUMPTION THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND REINFORCE NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER. ALL
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR WACO...HAVE MVFR CIGS ARRIVING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. AGAIN WITH FLOW SO WEAK...AMENDMENTS TO EXACT
CIG HEIGHTS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER.



&&

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT THIS HOUR. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IS
BEING REPORTED UNDERNEATH THESE LOW CLOUDS AT SEVERAL SITES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA RADARS SHOW
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WEAK
LIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON...THE
CONCENTRATION OF RAIN MAY BECOME MORE FOCUSED NEAR A COLD FRONT
MOVING TOWARDS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. INCREASED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 40 POPS
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE DAY AND
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD A LITTLE
FARTHER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS. ACROSS OUR PART OF THE STATE...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH
IS A BIT SURPRISING GIVEN THE EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z SOUNDING DATA AND 7Z MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATE A STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MOISTURE CONFINED
GENERALLY BELOW 800MB. THE MODEL ANALYSIS CLEARLY APPEARS TO BE IN
ERROR AS THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD HAVE TO BE MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY TO
GET CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
DISTURBANCE WHICH IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. CAPPING INVERSION IS
LIKELY MUCH WEAKER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AT LEAST IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WHERE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME ANY REMAINING INHIBITION. DESPITE THE POOR MODEL
PERFORMANCE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE...THINK THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES FARTHER EAST.

ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. LIFT FROM THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY...BUT STRONG CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SHOWERS BENEATH
THE CAP. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER LIFT TO THE
NORTH. THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY TONIGHT BUT LEAVES BEHIND AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
SPREADS ASCENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
INITIALLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST WITH
TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS APPEARS TO BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH IS STRONGEST. AMPLE HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WIND FIELDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT
LEAST SOME LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WHEN A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. RAISED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ADDED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER RIDING
ALOFT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  57  77  61  79 /  30  20  10  10  10
WACO, TX              68  54  76  55  79 /  30  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             66  50  75  55  77 /  30  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            66  53  75  56  78 /  40  20  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          66  52  75  56  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            66  57  77  61  80 /  30  20  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  53  75  58  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         66  54  77  59  79 /  30  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            68  55  77  57  79 /  30  20  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  58  74  57  79 /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /












000
FXUS64 KHGX 171723
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1223 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
1ST UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP HAS MOVED E OF THE TAF
SITES. SAT PIX SHOW BRIEF SCATTERING OF CLOUDS BUT NOT SURE HOW
LONG THIS`LL LAST. SLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC TRANSPORTING SOME
LLVL MOISTURE IN FROM THE WRN GULF AND SCNTL TX. CURRENT OBS &
SOME FCST SOUNDING SHOW SOME 1500-3000 FT CIGS DEVELOPING AND
PERSISTING THRU THE AFTN. DIDN`T GO THAT PESSIMISTIC...YET...BUT
DID TEMPO FOR THE 18-21Z AS TRENDS LOOK LIKE THAT IS A
POSSIBILITY. WILL UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE IMPROVES ONE WAY OR THE
OTHER. COULD SEE AN ISO SHRA/TSRA LATER IN THE DAY WITH ANOTHER
S/W NEARING BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE AS MUCH COVERAGE AND WON`T
ADVERTISE IN 18Z TAFS. VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT. WILL PROBABLY SEE A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS AHEAD OF
IT...IMPROVING TO VFR TOWARD MID MORNING FRI.  47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WORKING SOUTH
OF HOUSTON AND ALONG THE COAST. MAIN AREA OF LIST WITH THE SYSTEM
IS OFF THE COAST WITH A BROAD AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF. LOOKING AT 12Z LCH SOUNDING THERE
APPEARS TO BE A THIN MOIST LAYER NEAR 700MB THAT WOULD MAKE
LIFTING THOSE PARCELS UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE IT. AS
THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO COME
TO AN END. THERE IS A SECOND SHORT WAVE BACK OVER THE S PLAINS
WHICH COULD ALSO SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP 20 POPS DURING THIS TIME AS LEAD SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL WAIT TO
SEE HOW 12Z GUIDANCE HANDLES THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH. GIVEN
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...ALSO KNOCKED DOWN MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. MAY REACH 70F IN A FEW AREAS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN
THAT. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  57  78  58  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  58  80  59  80 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  63  75  66  76 /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KBRO 171715 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1215 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE MORNING SOUNDING SUGGESTED THAT A STRONG CAP FROM
5 TO 7 KFT WAS IN PLACE...AND THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CASE BASED ON
CURRENT CEILINGS. HIGHER PWAT VALUES THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE ALSO
ALLOWED MULTILAYERED DECKS TO FORM. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL TAKE OVER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
WITH CEILINGS DECREASING TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BE IN THE AREA AS WELL...MORE SO AROUND
BROWNSVILLE WHERE RAIN FELL THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST
GULF TONIGHT...BACKING WINDS TO EAST AND NORTHEAST. A TIME HEIGHT
PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MAV GUIDANCE GOING WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER IFR
CIGS AS WELL AS PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...WHILE THE MET IS A LITTLE
LESS RESTRICTIVE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...JET STREAK NOSING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND CYCLONIC
KINK IN H5 TROUGH AXIS ALOFT IS DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH
TO SPARK SOME LIGHTNING SOUTH OF THE RIVER. BELIEVE THE CONVECTION
IS ELEVATED BASED ON PREEXISTING CAP BUT IT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AT
MFE WARRANTING A NON-CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR COMPONENT...WHILE THIS
COMPONENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BRO AND HRL. A MIX OF HIGH AND LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY. MODERATE S-SE WINDS WILL BACK TO EAST AND
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
AND PROPAGATING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. ALTHOUGH
ALL SURFACE OBSERVATION STATIONS INDICATE CLEAR SKIES...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVERHEAD AT ROUGHLY
22K FEET FROM THE WEST.

TODAY...A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE BRO CWFA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. WITH A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PROGGED TO PASS OVERHEAD...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281/
INTERSTATE 69C CORRIDOR. INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED VERY
REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAINFALL...AND THESE WERE RETAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

TONIGHT...BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BRIEFLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE WEAK INVERTED TROUGHINESS ALONG THE
TEXAS COASTLINE...GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRETY OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MORE SEASONAL AFTER THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...ENOUGH WEAKENING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE
TEXAS COASTLINE WILL REMAIN TO CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THREAT OF
SHOWERS FOR THE BRO CWFA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED THURSDAY HIGHS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW
FILTERING IN MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER VALLEY. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EAST. MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL REMAIN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND POSSIBLY MIGRATE
INTO THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE VALLEY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN TEXAS BUT MOISTURE BEEN PULL NORTHWARD AND
INSTABILITY IN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCE POTENTIAL
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND INCREASE CLOSE TO THE
90S TOWARDS THE WEST SUNDAY. THE RAIN POTENTIAL DECREASES INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE TAKES CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CONUS. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST BY
EARLY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW AND AS A RESULT STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH BLYR WINDS
SHOWING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOS AS BETTER DYNAMICS REMAIN TOWARDS THE NORTH BUT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT THIS SE WINDS TO
INCREASE THE WAA ACROSS THE CWA HELPING TEMPERATURES TO REACH BETWEEN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 90S WEST OF HIGHWAY
281. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAIN UNIFORMLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 70 DEGREE RANGE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 19 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 23 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SHOWERS OVER
THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ARE CAUSING STRONGER WINDS IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...AND
THESE WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT BUILDING SEAS MAY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OR EVEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED IN THE
IMMEDIATE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL HOWEVER...MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY
AS RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE TEXAS REGION WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS FROM THE E WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET SATURDAY.
RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD SHIFTING MODERATE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO SUNDAY AND BUILDING UP TO 5 FT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK... ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE INCREASING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND KEEPING A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AND KEEP
SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL BEGINS TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE NW PACIFIC COAST AND DEEPENS A SURFACE LOW. THIS
WILL INCREASE SE WINDS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUILDING SEAS
UP TO 6 FEET. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/64/58






000
FXUS64 KMAF 171712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through this evening. Cold front currently
moving slowly southeast through the Permian Basin of west Texas.
Behind this front expect northeast winds of generally 10 to 15 mph
through tonight. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
around 09z tonight and continue through Friday morning. There
is some potential for IFR conditions to develop and later shifts
will monitor.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
At 12Z, a cold front extended from Snyder to MAF to PEQ. This front
should pass through FST by 14Z. Winds behind the front are expected
to be gusty, particularly around CNM through mid morning. Winds
are expected to decrease and veer to northeast and east this
afternoon and evening, at generally 12 knots or less.

VFR conditions and no significant weather are expected through
06Z. MVFR and occasionally IFR conditions are expected to develop
across southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas terminals between
06Z and 12Z due to lowering cloud ceilings.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is currently coming into the area starting in southeast
New Mexico where winds are gusting out of the north to northwest.
This front is a result of an upper level trough that is moving over
the Southern Plains.  The front will continue moving into the area
through the morning and early afternoon hours which will result in
cooler temperatures for this afternoon.  A shortwave moving near the
area may provide enough lift to produce thunderstorms across the
Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon.

The upper trough will pass to the east of the region on Friday, but
there will still be upper lift over the area so showers will be
possible Friday morning across far eastern sections of the CWA.
Another upper level trough will move toward the region from southern
California on Friday.  Upper level lift will start moving over far
western sections of the CWA so thunderstorms will be possible in
these areas Friday afternoon.  The upper trough will move closer to
the region on Saturday resulting in shortwaves moving over the
area.  This upper level lift will allow for thunderstorms to develop
areawide by Saturday afternoon.  An isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the Lower Trans Pecos as
CAPE and shear values will be greater there.  The precipitation will
gradually move out of the area on Sunday as the upper trough starts
to move to the east of the region.

A surface trough will develop in the wake of the upper trough
resulting in a significant warm up on Sunday.  A gradual warm up
will occur next week as an upper level ridge develops over the
region.  This warm up will be enhanced on Wednesday as a surface
trough strengthens across the area in advance of another upper
trough.  It appears that the upper trough will move to the north of
the region on Thursday but the track is uncertain as the models are
quite different in the placement of this trough.  Left extended
forecast dry for now until better model agreement is reached.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  52  76  58  /  10   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              70  54  76  59  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  48  78  54  /   0   0  10  30
DRYDEN TX                  82  59  77  62  /  10  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           79  55  79  60  /   0  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  46  74  52  /   0   0  20  30
HOBBS NM                   70  47  75  53  /   0   0   0  20
MARFA TX                   75  42  74  51  /   0   0  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  54  77  59  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  73  54  77  58  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    79  53  79  59  /   0   0  10  20

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/80





000
FXUS64 KMAF 171712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through this evening. Cold front currently
moving slowly southeast through the Permian Basin of west Texas.
Behind this front expect northeast winds of generally 10 to 15 mph
through tonight. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
around 09z tonight and continue through Friday morning. There
is some potential for IFR conditions to develop and later shifts
will monitor.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
At 12Z, a cold front extended from Snyder to MAF to PEQ. This front
should pass through FST by 14Z. Winds behind the front are expected
to be gusty, particularly around CNM through mid morning. Winds
are expected to decrease and veer to northeast and east this
afternoon and evening, at generally 12 knots or less.

VFR conditions and no significant weather are expected through
06Z. MVFR and occasionally IFR conditions are expected to develop
across southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas terminals between
06Z and 12Z due to lowering cloud ceilings.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is currently coming into the area starting in southeast
New Mexico where winds are gusting out of the north to northwest.
This front is a result of an upper level trough that is moving over
the Southern Plains.  The front will continue moving into the area
through the morning and early afternoon hours which will result in
cooler temperatures for this afternoon.  A shortwave moving near the
area may provide enough lift to produce thunderstorms across the
Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon.

The upper trough will pass to the east of the region on Friday, but
there will still be upper lift over the area so showers will be
possible Friday morning across far eastern sections of the CWA.
Another upper level trough will move toward the region from southern
California on Friday.  Upper level lift will start moving over far
western sections of the CWA so thunderstorms will be possible in
these areas Friday afternoon.  The upper trough will move closer to
the region on Saturday resulting in shortwaves moving over the
area.  This upper level lift will allow for thunderstorms to develop
areawide by Saturday afternoon.  An isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the Lower Trans Pecos as
CAPE and shear values will be greater there.  The precipitation will
gradually move out of the area on Sunday as the upper trough starts
to move to the east of the region.

A surface trough will develop in the wake of the upper trough
resulting in a significant warm up on Sunday.  A gradual warm up
will occur next week as an upper level ridge develops over the
region.  This warm up will be enhanced on Wednesday as a surface
trough strengthens across the area in advance of another upper
trough.  It appears that the upper trough will move to the north of
the region on Thursday but the track is uncertain as the models are
quite different in the placement of this trough.  Left extended
forecast dry for now until better model agreement is reached.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  52  76  58  /  10   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              70  54  76  59  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  48  78  54  /   0   0  10  30
DRYDEN TX                  82  59  77  62  /  10  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           79  55  79  60  /   0  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  46  74  52  /   0   0  20  30
HOBBS NM                   70  47  75  53  /   0   0   0  20
MARFA TX                   75  42  74  51  /   0   0  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  54  77  59  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  73  54  77  58  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    79  53  79  59  /   0   0  10  20

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/80





000
FXUS64 KMAF 171712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through this evening. Cold front currently
moving slowly southeast through the Permian Basin of west Texas.
Behind this front expect northeast winds of generally 10 to 15 mph
through tonight. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
around 09z tonight and continue through Friday morning. There
is some potential for IFR conditions to develop and later shifts
will monitor.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
At 12Z, a cold front extended from Snyder to MAF to PEQ. This front
should pass through FST by 14Z. Winds behind the front are expected
to be gusty, particularly around CNM through mid morning. Winds
are expected to decrease and veer to northeast and east this
afternoon and evening, at generally 12 knots or less.

VFR conditions and no significant weather are expected through
06Z. MVFR and occasionally IFR conditions are expected to develop
across southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas terminals between
06Z and 12Z due to lowering cloud ceilings.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is currently coming into the area starting in southeast
New Mexico where winds are gusting out of the north to northwest.
This front is a result of an upper level trough that is moving over
the Southern Plains.  The front will continue moving into the area
through the morning and early afternoon hours which will result in
cooler temperatures for this afternoon.  A shortwave moving near the
area may provide enough lift to produce thunderstorms across the
Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon.

The upper trough will pass to the east of the region on Friday, but
there will still be upper lift over the area so showers will be
possible Friday morning across far eastern sections of the CWA.
Another upper level trough will move toward the region from southern
California on Friday.  Upper level lift will start moving over far
western sections of the CWA so thunderstorms will be possible in
these areas Friday afternoon.  The upper trough will move closer to
the region on Saturday resulting in shortwaves moving over the
area.  This upper level lift will allow for thunderstorms to develop
areawide by Saturday afternoon.  An isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the Lower Trans Pecos as
CAPE and shear values will be greater there.  The precipitation will
gradually move out of the area on Sunday as the upper trough starts
to move to the east of the region.

A surface trough will develop in the wake of the upper trough
resulting in a significant warm up on Sunday.  A gradual warm up
will occur next week as an upper level ridge develops over the
region.  This warm up will be enhanced on Wednesday as a surface
trough strengthens across the area in advance of another upper
trough.  It appears that the upper trough will move to the north of
the region on Thursday but the track is uncertain as the models are
quite different in the placement of this trough.  Left extended
forecast dry for now until better model agreement is reached.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  52  76  58  /  10   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              70  54  76  59  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  48  78  54  /   0   0  10  30
DRYDEN TX                  82  59  77  62  /  10  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           79  55  79  60  /   0  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  46  74  52  /   0   0  20  30
HOBBS NM                   70  47  75  53  /   0   0   0  20
MARFA TX                   75  42  74  51  /   0   0  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  54  77  59  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  73  54  77  58  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    79  53  79  59  /   0   0  10  20

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/80





000
FXUS64 KMAF 171712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through this evening. Cold front currently
moving slowly southeast through the Permian Basin of west Texas.
Behind this front expect northeast winds of generally 10 to 15 mph
through tonight. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
around 09z tonight and continue through Friday morning. There
is some potential for IFR conditions to develop and later shifts
will monitor.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
At 12Z, a cold front extended from Snyder to MAF to PEQ. This front
should pass through FST by 14Z. Winds behind the front are expected
to be gusty, particularly around CNM through mid morning. Winds
are expected to decrease and veer to northeast and east this
afternoon and evening, at generally 12 knots or less.

VFR conditions and no significant weather are expected through
06Z. MVFR and occasionally IFR conditions are expected to develop
across southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas terminals between
06Z and 12Z due to lowering cloud ceilings.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A cold front is currently coming into the area starting in southeast
New Mexico where winds are gusting out of the north to northwest.
This front is a result of an upper level trough that is moving over
the Southern Plains.  The front will continue moving into the area
through the morning and early afternoon hours which will result in
cooler temperatures for this afternoon.  A shortwave moving near the
area may provide enough lift to produce thunderstorms across the
Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon.

The upper trough will pass to the east of the region on Friday, but
there will still be upper lift over the area so showers will be
possible Friday morning across far eastern sections of the CWA.
Another upper level trough will move toward the region from southern
California on Friday.  Upper level lift will start moving over far
western sections of the CWA so thunderstorms will be possible in
these areas Friday afternoon.  The upper trough will move closer to
the region on Saturday resulting in shortwaves moving over the
area.  This upper level lift will allow for thunderstorms to develop
areawide by Saturday afternoon.  An isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the Lower Trans Pecos as
CAPE and shear values will be greater there.  The precipitation will
gradually move out of the area on Sunday as the upper trough starts
to move to the east of the region.

A surface trough will develop in the wake of the upper trough
resulting in a significant warm up on Sunday.  A gradual warm up
will occur next week as an upper level ridge develops over the
region.  This warm up will be enhanced on Wednesday as a surface
trough strengthens across the area in advance of another upper
trough.  It appears that the upper trough will move to the north of
the region on Thursday but the track is uncertain as the models are
quite different in the placement of this trough.  Left extended
forecast dry for now until better model agreement is reached.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71  52  76  58  /  10   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              70  54  76  59  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  48  78  54  /   0   0  10  30
DRYDEN TX                  82  59  77  62  /  10  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           79  55  79  60  /   0  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  46  74  52  /   0   0  20  30
HOBBS NM                   70  47  75  53  /   0   0   0  20
MARFA TX                   75  42  74  51  /   0   0  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  54  77  59  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  73  54  77  58  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    79  53  79  59  /   0   0  10  20

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/80





000
FXUS64 KCRP 171708
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1208 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY. THE INITIAL WAVE OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ENDED AS LEADING S/W MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE MAIN TROUGH IS STILL WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON PRESENTING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SH/TSRA. LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE AREA... MADE EVIDENT
BY THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE MID COAST. THE
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IS HAVING AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. TRIMMED
MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY PRIMIARLY OVER THE AREAS
IMPACTED BY DRIZZLE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER COASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BROAD RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE MID WEST TOWARD
THE GULF COAST AND ENCOUNTERS LOWER PRESSURES IN THE GULF. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. ZONE UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  82  64  79  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          61  81  59  80  65  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            62  85  67  87  70  /  10  10  20  20  20
ALICE             64  83  62  82  66  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          64  79  65  76  68  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           62  84  61  83  65  /  10  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        65  83  63  81  67  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       65  78  66  77  68  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KSJT 171702
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1202 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

MVFR ceilings are occurring at all TAF sites this morning. I expect
ceilings to gradually become VFR at all sites by mid afternoon.
Ceilings will once again drop into the MVFR category at all sites
late this evening, with the possibility of IFR ceilings mainly
after midnight. Isolated light showers or drizzle will be possible
this afternoon and overnight, but coverage should remain limited,
so I have left out any mention in the TAF package. A weak front
will gradually move through the region this afternoon/evening,
resulting north winds of 5 to 10 knots.

Daniels

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

First of all, there may well be a few showers this afternoon or
evening across much of West Central Texas, but given that the
coverage is expected to be limited and given the uncertainty in
timing, will not mention at this time. Otherwise, satellite is
finally showing the low clouds spreading across the are, with models
suggesting quite a bit of MVFR and low end VFR ceilings today. As a
weak cold front moves into the area, winds will become more easterly
and with more low level moisture moving into the area, all terminals
are expected to see MVFR cigs through the overnight hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Cold front making progress into the Panhandle early this morning,
although temperatures are not really much colder behind it. This
front will sag into the Big Country near the Interstate 20 corridor
by sunset, and then sag farther south during the overnight hours.
Moisture will be abundant, so as the front moves into the area, a
few showers will be possible. Previous forecast was already carrying
slight chance of showers across the area north and east of Abilene
for this afternoon and over much of the area tonight. This looks
like a good forecast for now and will continue.

Lots of clouds in place, both high clouds and low clouds underneath.
Still, temperatures starting in the mid and upper 50s this morning,
so even a little sun will allow readings to reach into the 70s
today. Mild again tonight with lows only dropping into the 50s.

LONG TERM...
Upper trough will approach the region Saturday. GFS has slowed the
progression of the upper trough and is now similar to the EC model.
I lowered pops for Saturday daytime, but kept the previous rain
chances in for Saturday night. Rainfall amounts in the models have
unfortunately decreased, even for Saturday night.

On on the positive side for rain chances, both the GFS and EC are
indicating a better chance of rain for Sunday/Sunday night,
especially across the Big Country as a secondary upper trough moves
across. The farther north, the better the dynamics and thunderstorm
chances. Atmospheric instability is also greater across the region
Sunday with GFS SB CAPES increasing up to 1800 J/KG, which will
increase the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

Northwest flow will bring in drier air aloft next Monday. Left out
chances storms on Monday, although with northwest flow aloft, one
can not rule out an isolated thunderstorm. A CAP will be developing
Tuesday which will significantly limit thunderstorm chances through
the rest of the week.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  55  75  56  76  60 /  20  10  10  20  50
San Angelo  56  76  57  78  61 /  20  10  10  20  40
Junction  56  77  57  76  61 /  20  10  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DANIELS







000
FXUS64 KLUB 171637
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NERN NM AND THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY MAY STILL BE DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH. ONCE THAT IS OVER THE
TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD. AS A RESULT LIGHT RAIN HAS
BEEN SLOW TO FORM...ALTHOUGH SOME RECENT SIGNS OF EXPANSION ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES PER KAMA 88D. 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
SOME PRECIP DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ERN PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS WITH BETTER CHANCES POINTS EAST. WILL EXPAND RAIN
MENTION A BIT TO THE WEST THIS AFTN BUT KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE GIVEN THIS SLIGHLY SLOWER TIMING TO THE TROUGH.

AT THE SFC...SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT IN
LINE WITH FCST. LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN BEHIND IT MORE THAN EXPECTED
BUT STILL SHOULD MIX EWD SOME AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY FCST AS A RESULT AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO REMAINING
GRID ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORNING TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT KCDS BUT
IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL AND CHANCES STILL SMALL ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT
OF THAT TAF. MVFR CIGS TO BE PERSISTENT AT KCDS THROUGH THE DAY
AND MAY HANG ON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE FILLING BACK IN AND
POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO IFR LATE TONIGHT.

AT KLBB...A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD
BEFORE SHIFTING EWD. POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR OR IFR
CIGS TOWARD 12Z AS A MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER BOTH KCDS AND KLBB THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SWING THE LIGHT EAST WIND TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 15 MPH. A DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION TO KCDS BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...SO WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EVEN IN ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS BUT COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER AT KLBB AND INCLUDED IT IN THIS TAF
FORECAST BUT KCDS REMAINS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS NOT BUDGED OR PERHAPS HAS SLIGHTLY SAGGED SOUTH OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST ACROSS THE NM BORDER NEAR DORA BASED
ON BOTH SURFACE WINDS AND PRESSURE ANALYSIS...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS CENTERED NEAR WINK.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER WHICH HAS IMPACTED
HOW FAST THE MODELS BRING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. ALOFT...00Z UPA
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE 250 HPA JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HELP A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
DEEPEN A BIT WHILE ALSO SLIDING EAST AT THE SAME TIME.  UNTIL THIS
SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EASTWARD.  IF ONE BELIEVES THE MODELS...THE FRONT
SHOULD START PUSHING SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNRISE AND PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SINCE THERE IS NO DEEP INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED AROUND CHILDRESS.  THIS COINCIDES WITH
WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST AND AS
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250 HPA JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
EASTERLY WIND FROM 850 TO AROUND 800 HPA WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.  COMBINING THIS WITH THE
WEAK LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING JET MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME RAIN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.  COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT SPARSE AT FIRST BUT MAY GRADUALLY EXPAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME.  AMOUNTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A DROUGHT BREAKER BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
PLACES THAT PICK UP A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH.  INCREASED POPS A
BIT MORE TO COVER THIS BUT STILL LIMIT THE BEST CHANCES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA.  THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN THAT LINGER IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME IN THIS AREA AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE CROSSING OVER THE REGION THEN.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND IT APPEARS TO
FINALLY CUT OFF BY THIS EVENING AS THE TROF AXIS AND JET EXIT REGION
ARE EAST OF THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT THICKER AHEAD OF THE TROF.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH AS WIND GOES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW
CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING SINCE WE DO KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SO
EXPECT NEAR 40 ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW 50S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES...CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY...WITH
MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS EAST
AND LEE TROUGHING IS RENEWED TO OUR WEST. THE DAY MAY START OUT WITH
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS PATCHY FOG...BUT THEY SHOULD BREAK BY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A SEASONABLY WARM DAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE WEST AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF RELEVANCE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA...MOVES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD DAMPING SOUTHWESTERN WAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
ON SATURDAY AND PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE MAY
LIFT OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE MEAN TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...GRAZING THE
SOUTH PLAINS TO THE NORTH. THIS LEAD DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES BEFORE 12Z. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL FOLLOW...
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANY
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE PASSING MEAN TROUGH AND THIS DOES
CREATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF BEST RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...BUT 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS STILL APPEAR WARRANTED. THE LATEST NWP TRENDS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
KEEP AT LEAST LOW STORM CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WELL INTO EASTER DAY. OVERALL ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION TO SPOTS OFF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PWATS ARE
STILL PROGGED TO IMPROVE TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH ON
SATURDAY AS THE TROPOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE MOIST...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN RATES FOR SPOTS THAT CAN GET UNDER A
SHOWER/STORM. ALTHOUGH INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED...MODELS STILL
SHOW ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...AND COUPLED WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR
TWO. POTENTIAL STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE FURTHER BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WOULD BE JUST EAST
OF THE CWA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING...WITH
HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S. THIS WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A DIFFUSE DRYLINE MAY ATTEMPT TO SETUP ON
TUESDAY...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED AT OUR SOUTHERN LATITUDE. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL HELP FURTHER
TIGHTEN THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION
OF THE LARGE TROUGH...AND HOW MUCH WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER WEST TEXAS...MAKE THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE AFTERNOON DRYLINE UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE EASTERN DRYLINE...SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EASTERN
BORDER...WHEREAS THE GFS IS CURRENTLY SELLING AN ACTIVE DRYLINE NEAR
THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WE HAVE CHOSEN
TO KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT 10-13 PERCENT RANGE...THOUGH IT WILL BEAR
WATCH...BECAUSE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER RISK. REGARDLESS...WARM WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS PUSHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  39  75  50  75 /  10   0   0  20  40
TULIA         61  41  73  52  75 /  10   0   0  10  40
PLAINVIEW     62  41  73  52  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
LEVELLAND     66  43  75  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
LUBBOCK       66  45  74  54  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
DENVER CITY   67  46  74  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
BROWNFIELD    67  45  74  55  74 /  10   0   0  20  40
CHILDRESS     60  46  76  53  77 /  20   0   0  10  40
SPUR          65  48  75  55  76 /  10   0   0  10  40
ASPERMONT     69  51  77  54  79 /  20   0   0  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KEWX 171608 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1108 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER TODAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WE HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS TO COVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
MINOR CHANGES HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE WINDS AND DEW POINTS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD DECK TO MVFR LEVELS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING...BUT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD. LOW CLOUD DECKS WITH IFR
AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FOR
I-35 TAF SITES. LIGHT BR AND -DZ WILL OCCUR WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. KDRT
WILL STAY MOSTLY AT VFR LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SFC WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT 7-12 KNOTS...TAPERING OFF
TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL CAUSE CIGS
WILL DROP FURTHER INTO IFR CATEGORIES THIS EVENING WITH BR AND -DZ
ACCOMPANYING IT. FOG MAY LOWER VSBY CATEGORIES DOWN TO IFR BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS WITH
A LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE
EASTERN HALF. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS DUE TO A FAVORABLE JET POSITION ENHANCING LIFT.
AS THE TROUGH AND JET MOVE EAST OF TEXAS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS NORTH ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES ON BRIEF DRYING ALOFT.
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS TODAY WARMING TO NEAR
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MIDWAY BETWEEN CALIFORNIA AND
HAWAII WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND SHOVING THE UPPER RIDGE
BACK SOUTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE
RATES...WEAK SHEAR AND ENHANCED BUOYANCY SOME STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. ESPECIALLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS COMING OFF THE SERRANIAS
DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THE TROUGH MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY SAG INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS ON TUESDAY
TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. HOWEVER...WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME AS 00Z MODELS RUNS SHOWING THIS FOR FIRST
TIME. WILL WAIT FOR SOME CONSISTENCY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG CAP OF WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND NO RAIN CHANCES. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  58  79  57  81 /  20  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  56  79  56  81 /  20  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  57  81  57  81 /  20  20  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  56  78  56  78 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           83  62  82  64  82 /  10  10  10  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  56  78  57  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             77  59  83  59  81 /  20  10  10  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  56  80  57  80 /  20  20  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  57  80  56  81 /  20  20  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  59  81  58  81 /  20  20  10  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  60  82  59  82 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32








000
FXUS64 KFWD 171557 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1057 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AT THIS HOUR. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IS
BEING REPORTED UNDERNEATH THESE LOW CLOUDS AT SEVERAL SITES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. LIGHT RETURNS ON AREA RADARS SHOW
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WEAK
LIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON...THE
CONCENTRATION OF RAIN MAY BECOME MORE FOCUSED NEAR A COLD FRONT
MOVING TOWARDS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. INCREASED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH 40 POPS
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE DAY AND
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST RAP AND 12Z NAM SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE AMENDED TAFS TO
INCREASE CIGS HEIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT ABOVE 2000FT. THESE MVFR
CIGS WILL STILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING...WITH SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BR THIS AFTERNOON.
IF PRECIPITATION IS ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS CIGS MAY
DROP BELOW 2000FT. THIS POTENTIAL IS GREATER OVER TARRANT COUNTY
THAN IN DALLAS COUNTY...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD A LITTLE
FARTHER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS. ACROSS OUR PART OF THE STATE...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH
IS A BIT SURPRISING GIVEN THE EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z SOUNDING DATA AND 7Z MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATE A STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MOISTURE CONFINED
GENERALLY BELOW 800MB. THE MODEL ANALYSIS CLEARLY APPEARS TO BE IN
ERROR AS THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD HAVE TO BE MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY TO
GET CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
DISTURBANCE WHICH IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. CAPPING INVERSION IS
LIKELY MUCH WEAKER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AT LEAST IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WHERE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME ANY REMAINING INHIBITION. DESPITE THE POOR MODEL
PERFORMANCE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE...THINK THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES FARTHER EAST.

ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. LIFT FROM THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY...BUT STRONG CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SHOWERS BENEATH
THE CAP. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER LIFT TO THE
NORTH. THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY TONIGHT BUT LEAVES BEHIND AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
SPREADS ASCENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
INITIALLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST WITH
TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS APPEARS TO BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH IS STRONGEST. AMPLE HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WIND FIELDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT
LEAST SOME LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WHEN A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. RAISED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ADDED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER RIDING
ALOFT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

DUNN

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  57  77  61  79 /  30  20  10  10  10
WACO, TX              68  54  76  55  79 /  30  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             66  50  75  55  77 /  30  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            66  53  75  56  78 /  40  20  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          66  52  75  56  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            66  57  77  61  80 /  30  20  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           68  53  75  58  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         66  54  77  59  79 /  30  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            68  55  77  57  79 /  30  20  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  58  74  57  79 /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

92/82






000
FXUS64 KHGX 171527
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1027 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WORKING SOUTH
OF HOUSTON AND ALONG THE COAST. MAIN AREA OF LIST WITH THE SYSTEM
IS OFF THE COAST WITH A BROAD AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF. LOOKING AT 12Z LCH SOUNDING THERE
APPEARS TO BE A THIN MOIST LAYER NEAR 700MB THAT WOULD MAKE
LIFTING THOSE PARCELS UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE IT. AS
THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO COME
TO AN END. THERE IS A SECOND SHORT WAVE BACK OVER THE S PLAINS
WHICH COULD ALSO SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP 20 POPS DURING THIS TIME AS LEAD SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL WAIT TO
SEE HOW 12Z GUIDANCE HANDLES THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH. GIVEN
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...ALSO KNOCKED DOWN MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. MAY REACH 70F IN A FEW AREAS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...

SENT OUT AN UPDATED FORECAST TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
INLAND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. SEEING ISOLATED STORMS IN
WHARTON AND FORT BEND COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. RAISED POPS
OFFSHORE WHERE CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.

33

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 5000 FEET. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH OCASSIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRINGER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW...STAYED WITH VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      71  57  78  58  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  58  80  59  80 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  63  75  66  76 /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39




000
FXUS64 KFWD 171513
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1013 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LATEST RAP AND 12Z NAM SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HAVE AMENDED TAFS TO
INCREASE CIGS HEIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT ABOVE 2000FT. THESE MVFR
CIGS WILL STILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING...WITH SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT DRIZZLE OR BR THIS AFTERNOON.
IF PRECIPITATION IS ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS CIGS MAY
DROP BELOW 2000FT. THIS POTENTIAL IS GREATER OVER TARRANT COUNTY
THAN IN DALLAS COUNTY...SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TR.92

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD A LITTLE
FARTHER THROUGH THE DAY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS. ACROSS OUR PART OF THE STATE...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH
IS A BIT SURPRISING GIVEN THE EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z SOUNDING DATA AND 7Z MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATE A STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MOISTURE CONFINED
GENERALLY BELOW 800MB. THE MODEL ANALYSIS CLEARLY APPEARS TO BE IN
ERROR AS THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD HAVE TO BE MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY TO
GET CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
DISTURBANCE WHICH IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. CAPPING INVERSION IS
LIKELY MUCH WEAKER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...AT LEAST IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WHERE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME ANY REMAINING INHIBITION. DESPITE THE POOR MODEL
PERFORMANCE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE...THINK THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES FARTHER EAST.

ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. LIFT FROM THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY...BUT STRONG CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SHOWERS BENEATH
THE CAP. BEST CHANCES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER LIFT TO THE
NORTH. THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY TONIGHT BUT LEAVES BEHIND AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
SPREADS ASCENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
INITIALLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST WITH
TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS APPEARS TO BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHEN LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH IS STRONGEST. AMPLE HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WIND FIELDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AT
LEAST SOME LIFT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WHEN A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. RAISED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ADDED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY...IT LOOKS DRY AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER RIDING
ALOFT WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

DUNN



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  57  77  61  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
WACO, TX              70  54  76  55  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             67  50  75  55  77 /  10  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            67  53  75  56  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          67  52  75  56  78 /  20  20  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            69  57  77  61  80 /  20  20  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           70  53  75  58  78 /  20  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  54  77  59  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  55  77  57  79 /  20  20  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  58  74  57  79 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






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