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000
FXUS64 KEWX 240412 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1112 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MINOR UPDATES HAVE
ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT WINDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES THIS
EVENING. THIS IS BRINGING MOISTURE IN FROM THE GULF AND SETTING UP
CONDITIONS FOR LOW CIGS LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR
AND THEN IFR AT AUS...SAT...AND SSF. CIGS SHOULD START TO LOWER
AROUND 06Z AND FALL TO IFR AROUND 10Z. THEN CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATE MORNING THURSDAY. DRT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HAS GENERATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO. HI-RES MODELS BRING SOME
OF THESE EAST TO NEAR I-35 BY MIDNIGHT PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE
HI-RES MODELS HAVE DONE WELL LATELY AND WILL FOLLOW THEM. LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR SUGGEST SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. ISOLATED
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY DRAGGING A
PACIFIC FRONT EAST TO ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 BY AFTERNOON. LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH AND WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WOULD GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTING STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET THURSDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AND
DRYLINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEERING FLOW TAKING THEM EAST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BY EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO
THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRAG ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO NEAR THE I-35 SUNDAY AND TO THE COAST MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AND FAR EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME STRONG STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND WARM TEMPERATURES OFF THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU. A COLD FRONT WITH SOME ORIGINS IN CANADA WILL
SURGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY WITH A COOLER AIRMASS AND
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES
AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WETTING
RAINS WILL BE SPARSE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  88  64  87  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  88  63  87  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  89  65  88  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  88  62  87  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  96  68  94  72 /  10  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  87  63  86  69 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  94  65  94  70 /  10  10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  64  87  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  86  65  85  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  90  66  90  69 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  92  66  91  69 /  10  10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






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000
FXUS64 KAMA 240400 AAE
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1100 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHERLY WINDS
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT. EXPECTED WIND
SHIFT WILL BE BY 06Z AT KGUY...07Z AT KDHT...AND 09Z AT KAMA. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE WIND SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY DECREASING TO BELOW 12KTS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO IMPACT KGUY
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND
GUSTY WINDS.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
FCST AREA AS OF 10 PM...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
TSTM ACTIVITY IS DONE FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH 88
EARLY FOR ERN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST MODELS INCLUDING TTU WRF...NAM...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CMC BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO OK PNHDL LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. DECIDED TO INSERT SLGT
CHC POPS FOR THE OK PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PSBLTY REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/02




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSJT 240330 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1028 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Previously updated the forecast to remove PoPs tonight for our
central and southern counties. Latest radar imagery shows a
decreasing trend with the coverage and intensity of convection in
the northern and eastern Big Country. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch
will expire at 11 PM, and will be dropping the PoPs across most if
not all of the area along/north of Interstate 20. The rest of the
forecast looks on track and no other changes planned at this time.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Widely scattered thunderstorms will move northeast across northern
and western parts of West Central Texas this evening and early
tonight. Given recent radar trends and with the low coverage, not
initially carrying TSRA at any of the TAF sites. The KABI and KSJT
sites are in closer proximity to these storms. Will closely monitor
and amend as needed. Strong, gusty winds and hail are possible with
some of the storms. Expect the storms to dissipate by 06Z. Extensive
middle to high cloud coverage this evening will decrease overnight,
with low cloud development expected through early morning across
southern and eastern parts of West Central Texas. Carrying MVFR
cloud groups at KSOA, KBBD and KJCT. Any residual low clouds should
break up quickly by mid-late morning, as a weak cold front pushes
south and enters the area. North winds 10-15 KT will follow the
frontal passage, with gusts over 20 KT possible for a few hours at
KABI and KSJT.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
Have updated zone forecast package to reflect Severe Thunderstorm
Watch now in effect until 11PM CDT this evening. This watch includes
all of the Big Country.

&

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms still look possible tonight, but its been
working against a few negatives as well. Weak lead shortwave is
rotating across West Central Texas this afternoon, producing a few
weak showers across the area. This wave will continue to the
northeast and not be much of a factor for this afternoon, other than
across the northern and northeast Big Country north of Abilene. To
the west, extensive high clouds are now covering the dryline, which
has inhibited mixing so far and allowed only weak convergence to
develop so far. This area also is seeing a bit of subsidence from
the initial shortwave.

First, areas north of I-20 from Sweetwater to Abilene ahead of the
shortwave will continue to see at least a few showers and storms
through the remainder of the afternoon. We will also look start
looking out to the west for more, probably more intense, development

Second, Models say that the high clouds will thin and push east, and
allow the dryline to sharpen and move east of a Lubbock to Midland
line before sunset. As this happens, then development of storms is
possible along or very near the western borders of the Concho Valley
and Big Country, roughly from Sweetwater to Sterling City, with the
activity pushing east and northeast through the evening hours. This
would place an area north of a San Angelo to Abilene line with the
best rain chances, which is already pretty well covered in the
forecast. Will leave these pops alone for now, and monitor the
development of the high clouds and the dryline. If storms can
develop, shear and instability suggest that severe will be possible.
High LCL`s make for a tough situation for tornadoes,  but very large
hail and damaging winds certainly possible.

Stronger upper level wave, noted on water vapor imagery moving into
Colorado and New Mexico this afternoon, will push east into the
plains early Thursday. This will allow the dryline and then a cold
front to push through West Central Texas before noon. Not much
colder air behind the front, but it will be drier with dewpoints
falling into the 30s and 40s.

7

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)

By Thursday night the upper trough axis will be over the Mississippi
valley with weak upper ridging building over the forecast area. A
weak cold frontal boundary just south of the forecast area will wash
out on Thursday night with weak surface winds swinging back out of
the south. Friday morning lows will range from the mid 50s over the
Big Country to the lower 60s along the Interstate 10 corridor.

The next upper level system that will affect the forecast area will
close off over southern Nevada by Saturday morning and will move
over the four corners area by Saturday afternoon. Ahead of this next
system a dryline will push east and become stationary along our
western CWA border Saturday afternoon. With afternoon highs warming
into the upper 90s Saturday afternoon and given some weak
convergence along the dryline, there will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms primarily along our western counties Saturday
afternoon.

As the upper level system digs southeast toward the northern Texas
Panhandle Saturday evening, the dryline will initially retreat
westward toward the New Mexico border. Then, as the upper level
system lifts toward the Southern Plains, the dryline will push
eastward, aided by a Pacific front, through the forecast area as a
squall line Saturday evening through Saturday night. Our best chance
of meaningful rainfall will be associated with this squall line.
There is a slight chance of strong and possibly severe storms
developing along the squall line as it move east through the area.
The primary threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and deadly
lightning. Thunderstorm activity should be east of the forecast area
by Sunday morning. Sunday morning lows will be in the mid 60s with
afternoon highs on Sunday in the upper 80s. Afternoon highs on
Monday will be in the low to mid 80s after morning lows in the the
mid to upper 50s..

The remainder of the week will be dry and a little cooler as upper
level ridging builds over the area. Highs on Tuesday will be in the
mid 70s to around 80 and on Wednesday in the mid to the upper 70s,
Morning lows on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low to mid 50s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  58  92  66 /  30   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  62  86  59  92  66 /  10   5   5   5   5
Junction  66  88  62  88  66 /   5  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KAMA 240326 AAD
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1026 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
FCST AREA AS OF 10 PM...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
TSTM ACTIVITY IS DONE FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH 88
EARLY FOR ERN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST MODELS INCLUDING TTU WRF...NAM...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CMC BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO OK PNHDL LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. DECIDED TO INSERT SLGT
CHC POPS FOR THE OK PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PSBLTY REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 240326 AAD
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1026 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
FCST AREA AS OF 10 PM...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
TSTM ACTIVITY IS DONE FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH 88
EARLY FOR ERN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST MODELS INCLUDING TTU WRF...NAM...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CMC BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO OK PNHDL LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. DECIDED TO INSERT SLGT
CHC POPS FOR THE OK PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PSBLTY REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 240326 AAD
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1026 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
FCST AREA AS OF 10 PM...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
TSTM ACTIVITY IS DONE FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH 88
EARLY FOR ERN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST MODELS INCLUDING TTU WRF...NAM...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CMC BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO OK PNHDL LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. DECIDED TO INSERT SLGT
CHC POPS FOR THE OK PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PSBLTY REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KAMA 240326 AAD
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1026 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF
FCST AREA AS OF 10 PM...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 831 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
TSTM ACTIVITY IS DONE FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH 88
EARLY FOR ERN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST MODELS INCLUDING TTU WRF...NAM...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CMC BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO OK PNHDL LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. DECIDED TO INSERT SLGT
CHC POPS FOR THE OK PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PSBLTY REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 240312
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
912 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 9 PM THIS EVENING A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS THE GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALSO WORKING ITS WAY
EASTWARD. THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS EARLIER IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM AS SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HAD
FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST. THE WILL HELP TO FOCUS STRONGER WINDS AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVELS AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL GUSTY DOWN SLOPING CONDITIONS
ALONG EAST FACING SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. EVEN THESE AREAS WILL
SEE WIND SPEEDS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS NEAR EAST SLOPES OF
AREA MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS OUR SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA. DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO CARRY A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OVERNIGHT....LOWERING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY. HIGHS
WARM BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A MAJOR
WINTER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DELIVERS
VERY STRONG WINDS AREA WIDE THIS WEEKEND. HIGHEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR ON SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO
THE PLAINS.

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS AND OUR REGION IS NO
EXCEPTION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH RELATIVELY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ATTENDANT MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE.
TROUGH AXIS IS NOW OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA AND EASTERN UTAH. TROUGH
WILL BRING A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH ROUGHLY BETWEEN 9 PM
AND MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN HIGHS ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES LOWER FOR
THURSDAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SFC ANALYZES...NAM 12 AND OTHER HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NICE LEE SIDE LOW
CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHERN TX. ATTENDANT TROUGH FOLLOWS CLASSIC
BEHAVIOR...IN TRAILING SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN TX INTO NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA.

AS OF 2 PM...SAN AUGUSTIN PASS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING THE HIGHEST GUST
AT 49 MPH. THEIR HIGHEST HAS BEEN 56 MPH...SET A COUPLE OF TIMES
EARLIER TODAY. BY CONTRAST...INSTRUMENTATION AT SALINAS PEAK HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN REPORTING WINDS BY ROUGHLY A FACTOR OF 15 TO 20
MPH LOWER. GIVEN THAT SALINAS PEAK REPORTING SITE IS 4000 FEET
HIGHER THAN SAN AUGUSTIN PASS...THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INFLUENCE
FROM THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT DOING MORE OF THE WORK IN
GENERATING OUR GUSTY LOWLAND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT BLOWING
DUST IS EVIDENT NOW OVER THE BORDERLAND.

NAM...GFS AND MAJORITY OF SREF ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS POINT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
9 PM. THIS WILL FAVOR TRAPPING OF SOME OF THE MOMENTUM WITH THE
WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN 10 AND 14 KFT AT THAT TIME. RESULT WILL MEAN
GUSTY DOWN SLOPE WINDS TO 50 MPH OR MORE ALONG AND NEAR EAST FACING
SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. FOR EL PASO...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
AREAS...THIS WILL MEAN A VERY WINDY START TO THE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT

BROAD RATHER FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TEMPORARILY FOLLOW
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND A SHORT BREAK TO OUR WINDY WEATHER. BY FRIDAY
HOWEVER THINGS WILL START TO CHANGE...AS WINDS PICK UP AGAIN OVER
OUR THE REGION. FOR FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. THIS IS AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM EXPECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTER ON HIGH WINDS AREA WIDE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM.HIGH WINDS...POSSIBLY THE STRONGEST WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME
TIME.

FOR SATURDAY...LATEST TRENDS WITH MAJOR FORCING MECHANISMS POINT
TO DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD 30-40 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE. 60 MPH OR MORE ACROSS
RIDGE LINES AND ESPECIALLY EAST ALONG FACING SLOPES. MECHANISMS
INCLUDE DEEP MIX DOWN OF MOMENTUM TO 600-650 MB...WHERE 50 TO 55
MPH WIND ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LARGE
LEE CYCLONE WITH A SFC CENTER BELOW 900 MB OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
ATTENDANT PAC COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY SYSTEM AND SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH AFTER SUNSET. DEPENDING ON ITS TIMING...LIFT IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO MILES WITH
ENHANCEMENT TO THE BLOWING DUST.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE GILA REGION...AS LIFT AND DYNAMIC
COOLING ALOFT ARE GREATEST IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME. UPR LVL TROF
AXIS MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AS A CONSEQUENCE...LEE SIDE SURFACE
FEATURE WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ANOTHER
WINDY DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ON SATURDAY.
THE OTHER GOOD IS NEWS WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS HAS MEANT A REDUCTION IN BLOWING DUST...THIS
DIRECTION DOES NOT FAVOR THE COMMON SOURCE REGIONS FOR OUR HEAVIER
DUST.

TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH MORE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...AS OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT
REMAINS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z-25/00Z...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS. 00Z-06Z SKC-SCT250
P6SM XCPT OCNLY 2-3SM IN BLDU TIL 04Z. WIND SOUTHWEST TO WEST
15-25KT G35KT TIL O4Z. AFTR 06Z SCT-BKN200-250 P6SM WIND WEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15KT.

FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL
CAUSE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE STRONG
WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY FUELS...WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 8PM THIS EVENING. NOT
AS WIND TOMORROW AND NOT AS WARM...BUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HUMIDTY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. DRY AND VERY WARM FRIDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE GILA
REGION. THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRY SUNDAY...WITH A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 60  82  58  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           53  80  51  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              52  78  50  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  77  52  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              36  54  42  61  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   53  76  50  84  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             41  71  48  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  47  78  47  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               48  77  49  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  80  58  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               46  82  48  87  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  86  56  93  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  74  52  80  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  54  81  55  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            52  80  54  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          62  78  55  85  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           45  78  46  85  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   46  77  48  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  77  53  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  80  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 42  66  44  72  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               37  67  41  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                37  65  42  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 40  72  46  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               51  73  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               50  75  49  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            37  70  40  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  42  73  47  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   38  73  38  81  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              35  72  35  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  71  48  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  52  79  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 48  78  49  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          51  80  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              46  76  47  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

27/99





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KMAF 240306
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1006 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Convection has died out w/loss of diurnal heating, w/dryline
retreating. Sfc obs out west indicate RFW conditions have ended,
as have high winds in the Guadalupes. We`ll do a quick update to
remove these watches/warnings.  Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Latest sfc analysis shows
the dryline east of KMAF/KFST, so convection is not likely this
evening. Sfc winds will veer overnight as a cold front approaches,
moving thru terminals 14-16Z Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Updated zones for Svr T-Storm Watch # 88 for Mitchell and Scurry
Counties until 11 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  58  81  54  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  60  83  55  /  20  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                88  54  83  50  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  96  65  95  62  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  59  86  59  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  55  76  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   85  51  78  48  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   85  46  79  42  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  60  84  56  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  89  61  84  58  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    89  57  85  55  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/27





000
FXUS64 KMAF 240306
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1006 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Convection has died out w/loss of diurnal heating, w/dryline
retreating. Sfc obs out west indicate RFW conditions have ended,
as have high winds in the Guadalupes. We`ll do a quick update to
remove these watches/warnings.  Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Latest sfc analysis shows
the dryline east of KMAF/KFST, so convection is not likely this
evening. Sfc winds will veer overnight as a cold front approaches,
moving thru terminals 14-16Z Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Updated zones for Svr T-Storm Watch # 88 for Mitchell and Scurry
Counties until 11 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  58  81  54  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  60  83  55  /  20  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                88  54  83  50  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  96  65  95  62  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  59  86  59  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  55  76  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   85  51  78  48  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   85  46  79  42  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  60  84  56  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  89  61  84  58  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    89  57  85  55  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/27





000
FXUS64 KMAF 240306
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1006 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Convection has died out w/loss of diurnal heating, w/dryline
retreating. Sfc obs out west indicate RFW conditions have ended,
as have high winds in the Guadalupes. We`ll do a quick update to
remove these watches/warnings.  Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Latest sfc analysis shows
the dryline east of KMAF/KFST, so convection is not likely this
evening. Sfc winds will veer overnight as a cold front approaches,
moving thru terminals 14-16Z Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Updated zones for Svr T-Storm Watch # 88 for Mitchell and Scurry
Counties until 11 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  58  81  54  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  60  83  55  /  20  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                88  54  83  50  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  96  65  95  62  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  59  86  59  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  55  76  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   85  51  78  48  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   85  46  79  42  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  60  84  56  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  89  61  84  58  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    89  57  85  55  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/27





000
FXUS64 KMAF 240306
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1006 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Convection has died out w/loss of diurnal heating, w/dryline
retreating. Sfc obs out west indicate RFW conditions have ended,
as have high winds in the Guadalupes. We`ll do a quick update to
remove these watches/warnings.  Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Latest sfc analysis shows
the dryline east of KMAF/KFST, so convection is not likely this
evening. Sfc winds will veer overnight as a cold front approaches,
moving thru terminals 14-16Z Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Updated zones for Svr T-Storm Watch # 88 for Mitchell and Scurry
Counties until 11 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  58  81  54  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  60  83  55  /  20  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                88  54  83  50  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  96  65  95  62  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  59  86  59  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  55  76  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   85  51  78  48  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   85  46  79  42  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  60  84  56  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  89  61  84  58  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    89  57  85  55  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/27




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KFWD 240255
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
955 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

BASED ON SPOTTER REPORTS AND OBJECTIVE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETER
ANALYSIS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN YOUNG COUNTY IS ELEVATED
ABOVE THE CAP AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR SOME
TIME. CAPE ABOVE THE CAP IS FAIRLY LIMITED...LIKELY LESS THAN 1000
J/KG. THEREFORE THIS SUPERCELL STORM IS STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE
REALLY LARGE HAIL AS MOST STONES ARE FALLING OUT BEFORE THEY GROW
TOO LARGE...DESPITE THE VERY IMPRESSIVE REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE IT
HAS DISPLAYED THIS EVENING WHICH IS FOOLING MANY OF THE ALGORITHMS
INTO SUGGESTING IT HAS BASEBALL OR LARGER HAIL. SO FAR REPORTS ARE
MOSTLY NICKEL AND QUARTER SIZE...WITH THE LARGEST REPORT IN ITS
LIFETIME BEING GOLFBALL SIZE. ELEVATED CAPE WILL GET WEAKER THE
FARTHER EAST THIS STORM GETS AND THEREFORE INTENSITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...LIKELY BY THE TIME IT
REACHES WISE COUNTY BUT WE SHALL SEE HOW IT GOES.

WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING APPROACHING THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WE DO EXPECT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND TRACK THROUGH THE CWA FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN...CAPE
ACCESSED BY ANY NEW CONVECTION WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED...AND THIS
NEW CONVECTION WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS SO THERE IS
JUST A SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CURRENT POP
CONFIGURATION WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ZONES OVERNIGHT LOOKS GOOD.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS LED TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE REGION PROVIDED SURFACE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLIER...AND NORTHEASTERLY
STORM MOTION WILL KEEP ACTIVITY FROM AFFECTING TAF SITES FOR MOST
OF THE EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN
EASTERLY MOTION LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSES STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WEAKENING TREND LATER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND
STORMS ENCOUNTER INCREASING CIN OVER NORTH TEXAS. THERE SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FOR ELEVATED
STORMS TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. EVEN IF STORMS
COMPLETELY FALL APART...REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AROUND MIDNIGHT
AS A 45KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES ESTABLISHED. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VCTS AT DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT....WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING EAST OF THE AREA
10-11Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WILL INVADE FROM THE SOUTH PRIOR
TO SUNRISE AND IMPROVE TO VFR 15-17Z.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE METROPLEX AT
18Z...THEN WACO AT 20Z. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 KT OR SO BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND DROP DOWN TO 5 KT AFTER 25/00Z.

30


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS STILL IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT ASCENT IS OCCURRING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. A
TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN STREAMING INTO WEST TEXAS...
WITH PERSISTENT MID CLOUDS...AND HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
BEEN ONGOING SINCE THE MORNING HOURS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. LEE SURFACE TROUGHING BELOW HAS QUICKLY
INTENSIFIED THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND THIS DRYLINE
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE AWAY FROM THE UNSTABLE
AREA TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. OUR AREA OF INTEREST FOR
INITIATION WILL BE GENERALLY FROM VERNON TO ABILENE...WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS NEAR
60F...WHICH EQUATES TO MLCAPE VALUES NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF
2000J/KG. A CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THIS AREA...BUT
ONLY MINIMAL VERTICAL EXTENT IS EVIDENT AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
INITIATION IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 4
AND 6 PM CDT.

INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST...BUT THE ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE EAST...INVADING
THE FWD CWA THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXCEEDING 40KTS
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...UPDRAFTS ROOTED IN A VERY
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL. LCL VALUES WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
THREAT. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER
A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND GENERALLY INCREASING CAP
STRENGTH (AND DECREASING HELICITY). THE RESULT WILL BE EITHER:
(1) STEADILY DISSIPATING STORMS... OR (2) STORMS THAT GRADUALLY
SEPARATE FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LATTER DOES NOT NECESSARILY
IMPLY A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INTENSITY...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. THE BULK OF ANY
REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE BACK EDGE GENERALLY COINCIDENT
WITH THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
POTENT...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT BE NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER. THERE WILL REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN
EASTERN ZONES MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS LOW.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE QUICKLY
DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LONG BEFORE THEY
COULD REACH NORTH TEXAS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA OF INTEREST WILL
BE THE RETREATING 850MB FRONT...WHICH WILL BE DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...ABOVE A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY
AT THE SURFACE. WITH MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND
NO UPPER SUPPORT...DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS/WX AT THIS TIME.

A FAR MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
ON SATURDAY. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN.
THE AREA AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY (WEDNESDAY)...WITH ANY POTENTIAL ACTIVITY INVADING NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE STORM MODE WILL FAVOR DISCRETE
(POTENTIALLY TORNADIC) SUPERCELLS...BUT THE STORM MOTION MAY KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WITHIN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT WITH
A VIGOROUS LLJ...THE ACTIVITY MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO TURN RIGHT
TOWARD NORTH TEXAS. THE LLJ WILL ALSO SERVE TO MAINTAIN A TORNADO
THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A TRANSITION TO AN MCS WITH AN
ENHANCED WIND THREAT MAY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION THAT LINGERS SUNDAY MORNING WILL HAVE
A CONSIDERABLE BEARING ON THE EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY. A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET SWINGING AROUND THE BASE
OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD...PERHAPS
AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WOULD MORE LIKELY OCCUR IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY MAY HANG UP...MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS SUNDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY.
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR WILL FOLLOW NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
LOW LINGERS IN THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL MEAN LITTLE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND PERSISTENT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  82  61  85  68 /  30  20   0   0   5
WACO, TX              66  83  60  85  68 /  20  20   5   0  10
PARIS, TX             63  78  55  82  62 /  20  30   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            67  82  55  84  66 /  30  20   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  81  52  84  63 /  20  20   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            67  82  63  84  68 /  20  20   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           65  81  58  84  65 /  20  20   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         65  82  62  84  66 /  20  20   5   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            65  83  61  85  68 /  20  20   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  83  55  87  66 /  30  10   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLUB 240247 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
947 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
DESPITE THE DRYLINE LINGERING ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
INCREASINGLY DEEP NOCTURNAL INVERSION. WE HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS AND DROP THE REMAINING COUNTIES OF THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN OUR CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
THE THREAT OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO END AT KCDS SHORTLY AFTER 00
UTC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR A TIME BEHIND THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FIRST LEAD WAVE HAS LARGELY DONE MADE ITS IMPACT AHEAD OF MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WHICH REMAINS OUT NEAR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AT
MID-DAY.  AREA OF MODEST DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON.  TSTMS STILL EXPECTED TO FIRE OUT EAST WITH HAIL /TO GOLF
BALLS/ AND WIND /60 PLUS MPH/ THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS ORIENTED SW/NE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING.  IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE INITIATION TIME GIVEN
THE NEBULOUS NATURE OF THE DRYLINE THOUGH THE EASTWARD MIX HAS BEGUN
IN EARNEST.  THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHICH ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
A DRYLINE BULGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RISK
WITH A TRAILING MCS POSSIBLE DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN JUST HOW LONG THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND
THERE IS SOME SMALL RISK THAT INCREASING MOISTURE IN A BACKED WIND
ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT TO SOME EXTENT INVOF
KCDS.  THEREAFTER...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  WILL STILL REMAIN 10-15
PCT POPS OUT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TRENDING SHARPLY DOWN THEREAFTER AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES INTO
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH SKIES CLEARING
NICELY.  OVERALL...A NICE SPRING DAY.

LONG TERM...
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY REMAINS UNLIKELY BUT CHANCES ARE GREATER THAN
ZERO. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT CONVECTS ON FRIDAY
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONE OF THE FEW FACTORS GOING FOR IT
WILL BE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. A PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL EXIST INTO THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ACCORDING TO THE NAM. ANALOG GUIDANCE SURPRISINGLY
INDICATES A FEW PREVIOUS SEVERE EVENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. NEUTRAL
HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE OVERHEAD IN BETWEEN RIDGING ALOFT AND A DEEP
TROUGH DIGGING OUT ON THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING IN A BROAD
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY WITH A FURIOUSLY DEEPENING SYSTEM.
AT THE MOMENT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST OF THE ANTICIPATED
SEVERE EVENTS WILL EVADE THE FA BUT THE ROLLING PLAINS STAND THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AROUND 250M IN ONLY 12 HOURS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROXIMATELY 16MB DROP IN 24 HOURS. THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE REMAINS MURKY BUT THE LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS DO KEEP THE
DRYLINE SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BACKED AT LEAST
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES AT THUNDER MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE EVENING
AS A PACIFIC FRONT COLLIDES WITH THE RETREATING DRYLINE. PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2KJ/KG WILL EXIST EAST OF THE RETREATING
DRYLINE AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT MAY BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS.

IF THE WIND DOES NOT BLOW ENOUGH ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY WILL BE A
REAL TREAT WITH POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  74  44  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         49  75  47  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  75  49  88  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  77  52  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  77  53  90  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  77  51  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  78  52  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  78  49  88  62 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          56  79  53  91  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  79  53  93  64 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/31





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 240209
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
909 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. AT 01Z...A DEEP
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY
TIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE ARE ALSO ROBUST SO FEEL FOG THREAT IS LESS THAN LAST
NIGHT. STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND THESE STORMS
WILL STAY WEST OF THE REGION BUT THEY WILL SEND A THICK CIRRUS
SHIELD THIS WAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT
SO BETWEEN THE TWO CLOUD DECKS...FEEL THERMAL INSULATION WILL
KEEP MIN TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. TWEAKED
MIN TEMP GRIDS A BIT.

ON THURSDAY...A WEAK S/WV WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE TEXAS TECH 3 KM WRF AND THE RAP DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVE THIS AREA ACROSS SE TX AROUND 18Z. THE
ECMWF IS QUITE BULLISH WITH POPS OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTN. THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST JET DYNAMICS AS WELL WITH
A SPLITTING JET AND A RRQ. 00Z NAM12 STILL KEEPING THE AREA CAPPED
ON THURSDAY. THINK THE CURRENT FCST WITH 20 POPS OVER THE NORTH
IS STILL VALID. NEW ZONES OUT BY 915 PM. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO THE WINDS STAYING UP AND AN IFR
LAYER FORMING TONIGHT. THE TIME PERIOD FORECASTED BY THE MODELS
FOR IFR WAS BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE LAYER WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. THE INVERSION SHOULD BREAK AND ALLOW FOR MIXING
TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD DECK MID MORNING THURSDAY. LIKED THE GFS
IN BRINGING IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO KCXO...
KCLL...AND KUTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WENT WITH A VCTS
MENTION AT ALL THREE SITES.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION TODAY (83-88 INLAND) WITH MOIST
S-SE FLOW IN PLACE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS AND S/W ENERGY ROTATES UP OVER THE RED RIVER WHICH
WILL PROBABLY BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR SETX TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
MILD PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWINGS INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE THURSDAY
AND STALLS WITH A GOOD CAP IN PLACE. WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER
AIR ALBEIT BRIEFLY BEFORE SE TO SOUTH FLOW INCREASES.

THIS MOIST FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS
AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY WITH FOG
THREAT A LITTLE GREATER FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR IN THE NORTH AND
NOTICEABLE DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH GREATER
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL.

SATURDAY WARM AND MOIST AND AS NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO NM SUNDAY
MORNING RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH LLJ OVERHEAD AND NEARLY
SPLITTING UPPER JET BUT MAY BE TOO CAPPED. BY MONDAY MORNING THE
PACIFIC FRONT IS PUSHING EAST INTO THE REGION AND INCREASING PVA
AND SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE UPPER JET MAY GIVE THE AREA THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT AT 30 NORTH EARLY THEN
TAPERING DOWN TO 20S BY AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODELS
TO FLIP FLOP ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW (WHICH MAY BE
FURTHER NORTH). DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER (AROUND NORMAL TO JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL) SHOULD PREVAIL WED/THU/FRI.
45

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE STATE. CAUTION FLAGS ARE
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY BY SUNDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      66  85  65  85  66 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  84  66  84  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            69  76  68  78  69 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KAMA 240131 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
831 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
TSTM ACTIVITY IS DONE FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH 88
EARLY FOR ERN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST MODELS INCLUDING TTU WRF...NAM...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CMC BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO OK PNHDL LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. DECIDED TO INSERT SLGT
CHC POPS FOR THE OK PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PSBLTY REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 240131 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
831 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
TSTM ACTIVITY IS DONE FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE CANCELLED SVR TSTM WATCH 88
EARLY FOR ERN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST MODELS INCLUDING TTU WRF...NAM...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CMC BRING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO OK PNHDL LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. DECIDED TO INSERT SLGT
CHC POPS FOR THE OK PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PSBLTY REST OF TONIGHT.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KCRP 240128
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
828 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING IS THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CWA. IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELL TRACKING
ACROSS MAVERICK COUNTY EAST OF EAGLE PASS ATTM. THIS STORM
DEVELOPED ALONG LOW LVL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHED ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID LVL S/W AND DIVERGENCE
IN UPR JET STRUCTURE. AS THIS STORM MOVES ESE...IT WILL ENCOUNTER
A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING CAP...AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. QUESTION IS WHEN/WHERE. EXTRAPOLATION FROM
THE CURRENT STORM MOTION BRINGS THE STORM INTO LASALLE COUNTY
BETWEEN 10-11PM. THE LATEST HRRR/ARW MODELS ALSO SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO AND TIME FRAME. THUS EXTENDED POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT LAVACA WL QUICKLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND. ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF LOCATIONS WL BE MVFR BY
02-03Z AND IFR BY 06-08Z. MVFR CEILINGS WL REACH LRD BY 08Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WL RISE TO VFR LVLS BY 15-16Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF DRT (INITIATED BY THE SIERRA
MADRE) WL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
NORTH OF LRD BY MIDNIGHT DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FROM WEST OF RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COAHUILA. THE LATEST HRRR
.HI-RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON WEST OF DEL RIO. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARMING AND DRYING IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB AS WINDS
VEER TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER BUT EXPECT CAP WILL HOLD AND DID NOT
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK EAST WINDS AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SAT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING TOWARD S TX.
MODELS PROG VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN AND AROUND THE CWA ON SAT...AND
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP. DO FEEL
THE WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP BASED ON MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...THUS KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE
W FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NE CWA DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVG E ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVATED. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST CIN AND BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NE ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF 1.6 INCHES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGD
TO BE MVG TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MEX...WILL PROVIDE MOD/STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS S
TX. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE CWA...FEEL AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW HOT THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL GET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...SFC WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SAT WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE BDRY MVS E. SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR MASS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  85  66  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            72  97  73  96  73  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  68  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  81  70  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  95  68  94  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  88  68  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  82  69  80  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 240128
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
828 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING IS THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CWA. IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELL TRACKING
ACROSS MAVERICK COUNTY EAST OF EAGLE PASS ATTM. THIS STORM
DEVELOPED ALONG LOW LVL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHED ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID LVL S/W AND DIVERGENCE
IN UPR JET STRUCTURE. AS THIS STORM MOVES ESE...IT WILL ENCOUNTER
A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING CAP...AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. QUESTION IS WHEN/WHERE. EXTRAPOLATION FROM
THE CURRENT STORM MOTION BRINGS THE STORM INTO LASALLE COUNTY
BETWEEN 10-11PM. THE LATEST HRRR/ARW MODELS ALSO SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO AND TIME FRAME. THUS EXTENDED POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT LAVACA WL QUICKLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND. ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF LOCATIONS WL BE MVFR BY
02-03Z AND IFR BY 06-08Z. MVFR CEILINGS WL REACH LRD BY 08Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WL RISE TO VFR LVLS BY 15-16Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF DRT (INITIATED BY THE SIERRA
MADRE) WL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
NORTH OF LRD BY MIDNIGHT DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FROM WEST OF RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COAHUILA. THE LATEST HRRR
.HI-RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON WEST OF DEL RIO. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARMING AND DRYING IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB AS WINDS
VEER TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER BUT EXPECT CAP WILL HOLD AND DID NOT
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK EAST WINDS AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SAT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING TOWARD S TX.
MODELS PROG VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN AND AROUND THE CWA ON SAT...AND
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP. DO FEEL
THE WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP BASED ON MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...THUS KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE
W FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NE CWA DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVG E ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVATED. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST CIN AND BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NE ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF 1.6 INCHES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGD
TO BE MVG TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MEX...WILL PROVIDE MOD/STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS S
TX. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE CWA...FEEL AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW HOT THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL GET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...SFC WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SAT WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE BDRY MVS E. SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR MASS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  85  66  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            72  97  73  96  73  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  68  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  81  70  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  95  68  94  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  88  68  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  82  69  80  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 240128
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
828 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING IS THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CWA. IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELL TRACKING
ACROSS MAVERICK COUNTY EAST OF EAGLE PASS ATTM. THIS STORM
DEVELOPED ALONG LOW LVL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHED ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID LVL S/W AND DIVERGENCE
IN UPR JET STRUCTURE. AS THIS STORM MOVES ESE...IT WILL ENCOUNTER
A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING CAP...AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. QUESTION IS WHEN/WHERE. EXTRAPOLATION FROM
THE CURRENT STORM MOTION BRINGS THE STORM INTO LASALLE COUNTY
BETWEEN 10-11PM. THE LATEST HRRR/ARW MODELS ALSO SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO AND TIME FRAME. THUS EXTENDED POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT LAVACA WL QUICKLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND. ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF LOCATIONS WL BE MVFR BY
02-03Z AND IFR BY 06-08Z. MVFR CEILINGS WL REACH LRD BY 08Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WL RISE TO VFR LVLS BY 15-16Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF DRT (INITIATED BY THE SIERRA
MADRE) WL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
NORTH OF LRD BY MIDNIGHT DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FROM WEST OF RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COAHUILA. THE LATEST HRRR
.HI-RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON WEST OF DEL RIO. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARMING AND DRYING IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB AS WINDS
VEER TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER BUT EXPECT CAP WILL HOLD AND DID NOT
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK EAST WINDS AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SAT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING TOWARD S TX.
MODELS PROG VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN AND AROUND THE CWA ON SAT...AND
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP. DO FEEL
THE WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP BASED ON MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...THUS KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE
W FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NE CWA DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVG E ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVATED. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST CIN AND BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NE ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF 1.6 INCHES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGD
TO BE MVG TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MEX...WILL PROVIDE MOD/STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS S
TX. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE CWA...FEEL AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW HOT THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL GET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...SFC WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SAT WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE BDRY MVS E. SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR MASS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  85  66  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            72  97  73  96  73  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  68  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  81  70  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  95  68  94  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  88  68  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  82  69  80  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 240128
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
828 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING IS THE THREAT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CWA. IMPRESSIVE SUPERCELL TRACKING
ACROSS MAVERICK COUNTY EAST OF EAGLE PASS ATTM. THIS STORM
DEVELOPED ALONG LOW LVL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHED ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID LVL S/W AND DIVERGENCE
IN UPR JET STRUCTURE. AS THIS STORM MOVES ESE...IT WILL ENCOUNTER
A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING CAP...AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. QUESTION IS WHEN/WHERE. EXTRAPOLATION FROM
THE CURRENT STORM MOTION BRINGS THE STORM INTO LASALLE COUNTY
BETWEEN 10-11PM. THE LATEST HRRR/ARW MODELS ALSO SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO AND TIME FRAME. THUS EXTENDED POPS A BIT FURTHER EAST.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT LAVACA WL QUICKLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND. ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF LOCATIONS WL BE MVFR BY
02-03Z AND IFR BY 06-08Z. MVFR CEILINGS WL REACH LRD BY 08Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WL RISE TO VFR LVLS BY 15-16Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF DRT (INITIATED BY THE SIERRA
MADRE) WL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
NORTH OF LRD BY MIDNIGHT DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FROM WEST OF RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COAHUILA. THE LATEST HRRR
.HI-RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON WEST OF DEL RIO. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARMING AND DRYING IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB AS WINDS
VEER TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER BUT EXPECT CAP WILL HOLD AND DID NOT
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK EAST WINDS AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SAT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING TOWARD S TX.
MODELS PROG VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN AND AROUND THE CWA ON SAT...AND
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP. DO FEEL
THE WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP BASED ON MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...THUS KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE
W FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NE CWA DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVG E ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVATED. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST CIN AND BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NE ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF 1.6 INCHES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGD
TO BE MVG TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MEX...WILL PROVIDE MOD/STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS S
TX. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE CWA...FEEL AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW HOT THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL GET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...SFC WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SAT WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE BDRY MVS E. SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR MASS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  85  66  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            72  97  73  96  73  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  68  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  81  70  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  95  68  94  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  88  68  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  82  69  80  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...SHORT TERM




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KBRO 240000 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
700 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DROP TO MVFR LEVELS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS CEILINGS DROP TO AROUND 1500 FEET. CEILINGS AT
MFE COULD DROP TO AROUND 1000 FEET BETWEEN 09-13Z. PERSIST
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING MOISTURE IN UNDER THE STABLE
LAYER LATER TONIGHT BUT WINDS SHOULD BE TO STRONG FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG TO DEVELOP AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE MAIN FIRST
PERIOD ISSUE WILL BE INCREASED SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS DUE TO A
DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS TIGHTENING UP THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH RESIDENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF. THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAVE MORE IMPACT FOR THE
MARINE AREAS...SEE BELOW DISCUSSION...BUT MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW WILL REPRESENT A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL WIND REGIME FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV. MOISTURE
WILL KEEP PILING UP ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS TONIGHT...WITH
COPIOUS LOW CLOUDINESS SETTING UP UNDER A STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE THAT WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOK FOR 10
TO 20 MPH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 70 DEGREES.

MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF U.S. 281
THURSDAY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH A DRY LINE MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FROM
THE WEST...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FROM THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER MAY BE A CATEGORY LESS OUT WEST TOMORROW
AS A RESULT...OR PARTLY CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES
OF ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND STARR...POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST.
COULD SEE SOME POP UP SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE FRONT/DRY
LINE BOUNDARY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH LOCALLY IN THE DRIER REGIME
OUT WEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FAR WEST.

THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR 70...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST BUT CLEARER INLAND. LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY
TO AREAS OF LIGHT TO MDT FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AND HIGH DEW
POINTS BUMP UP AGAINST EACH OTHER.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

MAINLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CYCLOGENSIS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGH
PLAINS AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE GULF WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A 80 KNOT UPPER
LEVEL JET AND WEAK VORTICITY MAX COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OUT WEST BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW DONT THINK ITS WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE PUBLIC ZONES.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY...GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF A DRYLINE/TROUGH WITH VERY DRY
AIR BEHIND IT. FAIRLY LOW HUMIDITY /9-20% WEST OF HWY 281/ IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS TO SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S. USED A LITTLE MORE ECX DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD /ECX WARMER THAN MEX/ TO BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
100S ACROSS MORE AREAS WEST OF HWY 281 AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
BETWEEN HWY 281 AND HWY 77.

THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING. LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT AS WELL SO NO
PRECIPITATION. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TUESDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER AND
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND BOOSTING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
APPROACH 20 KTS OVER THE GULF TONIGHT...AND LOW SEAS WILL BUILD TO
MODERATE...WITH LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE FILLS INTO WEST TEXAS FROM FARTHER WEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5-7 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXERCISE CAUTION WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS SEAS ARE SLOW TO FALL DESPITE SURFACE WINDS
DECREASING.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63






000
FXUS64 KEWX 232356
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
656 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES THIS
EVENING. THIS IS BRINGING MOISTURE IN FROM THE GULF AND SETTING UP
CONDITIONS FOR LOW CIGS LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR
AND THEN IFR AT AUS...SAT...AND SSF. CIGS SHOULD START TO LOWER
AROUND 06Z AND FALL TO IFR AROUND 10Z. THEN CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATE MORNING THURSDAY. DRT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HAS GENERATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO. HI-RES MODELS BRING SOME
OF THESE EAST TO NEAR I-35 BY MIDNIGHT PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE
HI-RES MODELS HAVE DONE WELL LATELY AND WILL FOLLOW THEM. LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR SUGGEST SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. ISOLATED
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY DRAGGING A
PACIFIC FRONT EAST TO ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 BY AFTERNOON. LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH AND WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WOULD GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTING STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET THURSDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AND
DRYLINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEERING FLOW TAKING THEM EAST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BY EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO
THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRAG ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO NEAR THE I-35 SUNDAY AND TO THE COAST MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AND FAR EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME STRONG STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND WARM TEMPERATURES OFF THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU. A COLD FRONT WITH SOME ORIGINS IN CANADA WILL
SURGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY WITH A COOLER AIRMASS AND
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES
AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WETTING
RAINS WILL BE SPARSE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  88  64  87  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  88  63  87  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  89  65  88  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  88  62  87  68 /  20  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  96  68  94  72 /  20  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  87  63  86  69 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  94  65  94  70 /  20  10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  64  87  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  86  65  85  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  90  66  90  69 /  20  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  92  66  91  69 /  20  10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KSJT 232355 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
655 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Widely scattered thunderstorms will move northeast across northern
and western parts of West Central Texas this evening and early
tonight. Given recent radar trends and with the low coverage, not
initially carrying TSRA at any of the TAF sites. The KABI and KSJT
sites are in closer proximity to these storms. Will closely monitor
and amend as needed. Strong, gusty winds and hail are possible with
some of the storms. Expect the storms to dissipate by 06Z. Extensive
middle to high cloud coverage this evening will decrease overnight,
with low cloud development expected through early morning across
southern and eastern parts of West Central Texas. Carrying MVFR
cloud groups at KSOA, KBBD and KJCT. Any residual low clouds should
break up quickly by mid-late morning, as a weak cold front pushes
south and enters the area. North winds 10-15 KT will follow the
frontal passage, with gusts over 20 KT possible for a few hours at
KABI and KSJT.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
Have updated zone forecast package to reflect Severe Thunderstorm
Watch now in effect until 11PM CDT this evening. This watch includes
all of the Big Country.

&

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms still look possible tonight, but its been
working against a few negatives as well. Weak lead shortwave is
rotating across West Central Texas this afternoon, producing a few
weak showers across the area. This wave will continue to the
northeast and not be much of a factor for this afternoon, other than
across the northern and northeast Big Country north of Abilene. To
the west, extensive high clouds are now covering the dryline, which
has inhibited mixing so far and allowed only weak convergence to
develop so far. This area also is seeing a bit of subsidence from
the initial shortwave.

First, areas north of I-20 from Sweetwater to Abilene ahead of the
shortwave will continue to see at least a few showers and storms
through the remainder of the afternoon. We will also look start
looking out to the west for more, probably more intense, development

Second, Models say that the high clouds will thin and push east, and
allow the dryline to sharpen and move east of a Lubbock to Midland
line before sunset. As this happens, then development of storms is
possible along or very near the western borders of the Concho Valley
and Big Country, roughly from Sweetwater to Sterling City, with the
activity pushing east and northeast through the evening hours. This
would place an area north of a San Angelo to Abilene line with the
best rain chances, which is already pretty well covered in the
forecast. Will leave these pops alone for now, and monitor the
development of the high clouds and the dryline. If storms can
develop, shear and instability suggest that severe will be possible.
High LCL`s make for a tough situation for tornadoes,  but very large
hail and damaging winds certainly possible.

Stronger upper level wave, noted on water vapor imagery moving into
Colorado and New Mexico this afternoon, will push east into the
plains early Thursday. This will allow the dryline and then a cold
front to push through West Central Texas before noon. Not much
colder air behind the front, but it will be drier with dewpoints
falling into the 30s and 40s.

7

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)

By Thursday night the upper trough axis will be over the Mississippi
valley with weak upper ridging building over the forecast area. A
weak cold frontal boundary just south of the forecast area will wash
out on Thursday night with weak surface winds swinging back out of
the south. Friday morning lows will range from the mid 50s over the
Big Country to the lower 60s along the Interstate 10 corridor.

The next upper level system that will affect the forecast area will
close off over southern Nevada by Saturday morning and will move
over the four corners area by Saturday afternoon. Ahead of this next
system a dryline will push east and become stationary along our
western CWA border Saturday afternoon. With afternoon highs warming
into the upper 90s Saturday afternoon and given some weak
convergence along the dryline, there will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms primarily along our western counties Saturday
afternoon.

As the upper level system digs southeast toward the northern Texas
Panhandle Saturday evening, the dryline will initially retreat
westward toward the New Mexico border. Then, as the upper level
system lifts toward the Southern Plains, the dryline will push
eastward, aided by a Pacific front, through the forecast area as a
squall line Saturday evening through Saturday night. Our best chance
of meaningful rainfall will be associated with this squall line.
There is a slight chance of strong and possibly severe storms
developing along the squall line as it move east through the area.
The primary threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and deadly
lightning. Thunderstorm activity should be east of the forecast area
by Sunday morning. Sunday morning lows will be in the mid 60s with
afternoon highs on Sunday in the upper 80s. Afternoon highs on
Monday will be in the low to mid 80s after morning lows in the the
mid to upper 50s..

The remainder of the week will be dry and a little cooler as upper
level ridging builds over the area. Highs on Tuesday will be in the
mid 70s to around 80 and on Wednesday in the mid to the upper 70s,
Morning lows on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low to mid 50s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  58  92  66 /  30   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  62  86  59  92  66 /  30   5   5   5   5
Junction  66  88  62  88  66 /  20  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KFWD 232349
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
649 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS LED TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE REGION PROVIDED SURFACE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLIER...AND NORTHEASTERLY
STORM MOTION WILL KEEP ACTIVITY FROM AFFECTING TAF SITES FOR MOST
OF THE EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN
EASTERLY MOTION LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSES STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
WEAKENING TREND LATER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING WANES AND
STORMS ENCOUNTER INCREASING CIN OVER NORTH TEXAS. THERE SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FOR ELEVATED
STORMS TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. EVEN IF STORMS
COMPLETELY FALL APART...REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AROUND MIDNIGHT
AS A 45KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES ESTABLISHED. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VCTS AT DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT....WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING EAST OF THE AREA
10-11Z. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS WILL INVADE FROM THE SOUTH PRIOR
TO SUNRISE AND IMPROVE TO VFR 15-17Z.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE METROPLEX AT
18Z...THEN WACO AT 20Z. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 KT OR SO BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND DROP DOWN TO 5 KT AFTER 25/00Z.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS STILL IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT ASCENT IS OCCURRING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. A
TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN STREAMING INTO WEST TEXAS...
WITH PERSISTENT MID CLOUDS...AND HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
BEEN ONGOING SINCE THE MORNING HOURS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. LEE SURFACE TROUGHING BELOW HAS QUICKLY
INTENSIFIED THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND THIS DRYLINE
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE AWAY FROM THE UNSTABLE
AREA TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. OUR AREA OF INTEREST FOR
INITIATION WILL BE GENERALLY FROM VERNON TO ABILENE...WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS NEAR
60F...WHICH EQUATES TO MLCAPE VALUES NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF
2000J/KG. A CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THIS AREA...BUT
ONLY MINIMAL VERTICAL EXTENT IS EVIDENT AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
INITIATION IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 4
AND 6 PM CDT.

INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST...BUT THE ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE EAST...INVADING
THE FWD CWA THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXCEEDING 40KTS
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...UPDRAFTS ROOTED IN A VERY
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL. LCL VALUES WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
THREAT. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER
A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND GENERALLY INCREASING CAP
STRENGTH (AND DECREASING HELICITY). THE RESULT WILL BE EITHER:
(1) STEADILY DISSIPATING STORMS... OR (2) STORMS THAT GRADUALLY
SEPARATE FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LATTER DOES NOT NECESSARILY
IMPLY A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INTENSITY...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. THE BULK OF ANY
REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE BACK EDGE GENERALLY COINCIDENT
WITH THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
POTENT...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT BE NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER. THERE WILL REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN
EASTERN ZONES MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS LOW.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE QUICKLY
DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LONG BEFORE THEY
COULD REACH NORTH TEXAS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA OF INTEREST WILL
BE THE RETREATING 850MB FRONT...WHICH WILL BE DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...ABOVE A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY
AT THE SURFACE. WITH MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND
NO UPPER SUPPORT...DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS/WX AT THIS TIME.

A FAR MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
ON SATURDAY. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN.
THE AREA AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY (WEDNESDAY)...WITH ANY POTENTIAL ACTIVITY INVADING NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE STORM MODE WILL FAVOR DISCRETE
(POTENTIALLY TORNADIC) SUPERCELLS...BUT THE STORM MOTION MAY KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WITHIN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT WITH
A VIGOROUS LLJ...THE ACTIVITY MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO TURN RIGHT
TOWARD NORTH TEXAS. THE LLJ WILL ALSO SERVE TO MAINTAIN A TORNADO
THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A TRANSITION TO AN MCS WITH AN
ENHANCED WIND THREAT MAY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION THAT LINGERS SUNDAY MORNING WILL HAVE
A CONSIDERABLE BEARING ON THE EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY. A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET SWINGING AROUND THE BASE
OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD...PERHAPS
AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WOULD MORE LIKELY OCCUR IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY MAY HANG UP...MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS SUNDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY.
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR WILL FOLLOW NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
LOW LINGERS IN THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL MEAN LITTLE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND PERSISTENT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  82  61  85  68 /  30  20   0   0   5
WACO, TX              66  83  60  85  68 /  20  20   5   0  10
PARIS, TX             63  78  55  82  62 /  20  30   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            67  82  55  84  66 /  30  20   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  81  52  84  63 /  20  20   0   0   5
DALLAS, TX            67  82  63  84  68 /  20  20   0   0   5
TERRELL, TX           65  81  58  84  65 /  20  20   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         65  82  62  84  66 /  20  20   5   0  10
TEMPLE, TX            65  83  61  85  68 /  20  20   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  83  55  87  66 /  30  10   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/92






000
FXUS64 KAMA 232344 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 232344 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 232344 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KAMA 232344 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE AMA
CWA. ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS STALLED WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO
LINE...HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE AN ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SO HAVE GONE AND REMOVED THE FAR WESTERN STACK
OF COUNTIES OUT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88. WILL LIKELY REMOVE
THE REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH BEFORE IT EXPIRES AT
11 PM CDT.

CLK

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ANY
CONVECTION REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KTS SUSTAINED WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A PACIFIC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 15 KTS BY 16Z WITH WINDS FURTHER DIMINISHING AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLUB 232343
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
643 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
THE THREAT OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO END AT KCDS SHORTLY AFTER 00
UTC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR A TIME BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FIRST LEAD WAVE HAS LARGELY DONE MADE ITS IMPACT AHEAD OF MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WHICH REMAINS OUT NEAR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AT
MID-DAY.  AREA OF MODEST DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON.  TSTMS STILL EXPECTED TO FIRE OUT EAST WITH HAIL /TO GOLF
BALLS/ AND WIND /60 PLUS MPH/ THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS ORIENTED SW/NE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING.  IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE INITIATION TIME GIVEN
THE NEBULOUS NATURE OF THE DRYLINE THOUGH THE EASTWARD MIX HAS BEGUN
IN EARNEST.  THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHICH ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
A DRYLINE BULGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RISK
WITH A TRAILING MCS POSSIBLE DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN JUST HOW LONG THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND
THERE IS SOME SMALL RISK THAT INCREASING MOISTURE IN A BACKED WIND
ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT TO SOME EXTENT INVOF
KCDS.  THEREAFTER...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  WILL STILL REMAIN 10-15
PCT POPS OUT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TRENDING SHARPLY DOWN THEREAFTER AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES INTO
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH SKIES CLEARING
NICELY.  OVERALL...A NICE SPRING DAY.

LONG TERM...
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY REMAINS UNLIKELY BUT CHANCES ARE GREATER THAN
ZERO. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT CONVECTS ON FRIDAY
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONE OF THE FEW FACTORS GOING FOR IT
WILL BE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. A PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL EXIST INTO THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ACCORDING TO THE NAM. ANALOG GUIDANCE SURPRISINGLY
INDICATES A FEW PREVIOUS SEVERE EVENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. NEUTRAL
HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE OVERHEAD IN BETWEEN RIDGING ALOFT AND A DEEP
TROUGH DIGGING OUT ON THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING IN A BROAD
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY WITH A FURIOUSLY DEEPENING SYSTEM.
AT THE MOMENT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST OF THE ANTICIPATED
SEVERE EVENTS WILL EVADE THE FA BUT THE ROLLING PLAINS STAND THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AROUND 250M IN ONLY 12 HOURS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROXIMATELY 16MB DROP IN 24 HOURS. THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE REMAINS MURKY BUT THE LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS DO KEEP THE
DRYLINE SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BACKED AT LEAST
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES AT THUNDER MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE EVENING
AS A PACIFIC FRONT COLLIDES WITH THE RETREATING DRYLINE. PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2KJ/KG WILL EXIST EAST OF THE RETREATING
DRYLINE AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT MAY BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS.

IF THE WIND DOES NOT BLOW ENOUGH ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY WILL BE A
REAL TREAT WITH POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  74  44  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         49  75  47  86  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  75  49  88  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  77  52  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  77  53  90  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  77  51  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  78  52  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  78  49  88  62 /  40   0   0  10  10
SPUR          56  79  53  91  63 /  20   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  79  53  93  64 /  30   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS64 KHGX 232326
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
626 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO THE WINDS STAYING UP AND AN IFR
LAYER FORMING TONIGHT. THE TIME PERIOD FORECASTED BY THE MODELS
FOR IFR WAS BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z...ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE LAYER WILL
BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. THE INVERSION SHOULD BREAK AND ALLOW FOR MIXING
TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD DECK MID MORNING THURSDAY. LIKED THE GFS
IN BRINGING IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO KCXO...
KCLL...AND KUTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WENT WITH A VCTS
MENTION AT ALL THREE SITES.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION TODAY (83-88 INLAND) WITH MOIST
S-SE FLOW IN PLACE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS AND S/W ENERGY ROTATES UP OVER THE RED RIVER WHICH
WILL PROBABLY BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR SETX TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
MILD PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWINGS INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE THURSDAY
AND STALLS WITH A GOOD CAP IN PLACE. WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER
AIR ALBEIT BRIEFLY BEFORE SE TO SOUTH FLOW INCREASES.

THIS MOIST FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS
AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY WITH FOG
THREAT A LITTLE GREATER FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR IN THE NORTH AND
NOTICEABLE DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH GREATER
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL.

SATURDAY WARM AND MOIST AND AS NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO NM SUNDAY
MORNING RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH LLJ OVERHEAD AND NEARLY
SPLITTING UPPER JET BUT MAY BE TOO CAPPED. BY MONDAY MORNING THE
PACIFIC FRONT IS PUSHING EAST INTO THE REGION AND INCREASING PVA
AND SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE UPPER JET MAY GIVE THE AREA THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT AT 30 NORTH EARLY THEN
TAPERING DOWN TO 20S BY AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODELS
TO FLIP FLOP ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW (WHICH MAY BE
FURTHER NORTH). DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER (AROUND NORMAL TO JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL) SHOULD PREVAIL WED/THU/FRI.
45

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE STATE. CAUTION FLAGS ARE
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY BY SUNDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  85  65  85  66 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  84  66  84  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  76  68  78  69 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KCRP 232320
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT LAVACA WL QUICKLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND. ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF LOCATIONS WL BE MVFR BY
02-03Z AND IFR BY 06-08Z. MVFR CEILINGS WL REACH LRD BY 08Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WL RISE TO VFR LVLS BY 15-16Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF DRT (INITIATED BY THE SIERRA
MADRE) WL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
NORTH OF LRD BY MIDNIGHT DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FROM WEST OF RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COAHUILA. THE LATEST HRRR
..HI-RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON WEST OF DEL RIO. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARMING AND DRYING IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB AS WINDS
VEER TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER BUT EXPECT CAP WILL HOLD AND DID NOT
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK EAST WINDS AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SAT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING TOWARD S TX.
MODELS PROG VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN AND AROUND THE CWA ON SAT...AND
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP. DO FEEL
THE WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP BASED ON MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...THUS KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE
W FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NE CWA DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVG E ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVATED. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST CIN AND BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NE ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF 1.6 INCHES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGD
TO BE MVG TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MEX...WILL PROVIDE MOD/STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS S
TX. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE CWA...FEEL AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW HOT THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL GET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...SFC WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SAT WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE BDRY MVS E. SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR MASS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  85  66  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            72  97  73  96  73  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  68  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  81  70  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  95  68  94  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  88  68  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  82  69  80  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 232320
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT LAVACA WL QUICKLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND. ALI...CRP AND VCT TAF LOCATIONS WL BE MVFR BY
02-03Z AND IFR BY 06-08Z. MVFR CEILINGS WL REACH LRD BY 08Z.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WL RISE TO VFR LVLS BY 15-16Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WEST OF DRT (INITIATED BY THE SIERRA
MADRE) WL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
NORTH OF LRD BY MIDNIGHT DUE TO A STRENGTHENING CAP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FROM WEST OF RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COAHUILA. THE LATEST HRRR
..HI-RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON WEST OF DEL RIO. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARMING AND DRYING IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB AS WINDS
VEER TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER BUT EXPECT CAP WILL HOLD AND DID NOT
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK EAST WINDS AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SAT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING TOWARD S TX.
MODELS PROG VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN AND AROUND THE CWA ON SAT...AND
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP. DO FEEL
THE WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP BASED ON MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...THUS KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE
W FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NE CWA DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVG E ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVATED. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST CIN AND BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NE ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF 1.6 INCHES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGD
TO BE MVG TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MEX...WILL PROVIDE MOD/STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS S
TX. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE CWA...FEEL AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW HOT THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL GET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...SFC WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SAT WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE BDRY MVS E. SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR MASS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  85  66  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            72  97  73  96  73  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  68  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  81  70  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  95  68  94  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  88  68  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  82  69  80  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KMAF 232209
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
509 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Latest sfc analysis shows
the dryline east of KMAF/KFST, so convection is not likely this
evening. Sfc winds will veer overnight as a cold front approaches,
moving thru terminals 14-16Z Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Updated zones for Svr T-Storm Watch # 88 for Mitchell and Scurry
Counties until 11 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44





000
FXUS64 KMAF 232209
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
509 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Latest sfc analysis shows
the dryline east of KMAF/KFST, so convection is not likely this
evening. Sfc winds will veer overnight as a cold front approaches,
moving thru terminals 14-16Z Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Updated zones for Svr T-Storm Watch # 88 for Mitchell and Scurry
Counties until 11 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44






000
FXUS64 KEPZ 232117
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
317 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS NEAR EAST SLOPES OF
AREA MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS OUR SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA. DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO CARRY A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OVERNIGHT....LOWERING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY. HIGHS
WARM BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS A MAJOR
WINTER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND DELIVERS
VERY STRONG WINDS AREA WIDE THIS WEEKEND. HIGHEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR ON SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO
THE PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS AND OUR REGION IS NO
EXCEPTION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL ADVERTISED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH RELATIVELY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ATTENDANT MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE.
TROUGH AXIS IS NOW OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA AND EASTERN UTAH. TROUGH
WILL BRING A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH ROUGHLY BETWEEN 9 PM
AND MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN HIGHS ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES LOWER FOR
THURSDAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SFC ANALYZES...NAM 12 AND OTHER HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NICE LEE SIDE LOW
CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHERN TX. ATTENDANT TROUGH FOLLOWS CLASSIC
BEHAVIOR...IN TRAILING SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN TX INTO NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA.

AS OF 2 PM...SAN AUGUSTIN PASS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING THE HIGHEST GUST
AT 49 MPH. THEIR HIGHEST HAS BEEN 56 MPH...SET A COUPLE OF TIMES
EARLIER TODAY. BY CONTRAST...INSTRUMENTATION AT SALINAS PEAK HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN REPORTING WINDS BY ROUGHLY A FACTOR OF 15 TO 20
MPH LOWER. GIVEN THAT SALINAS PEAK REPORTING SITE IS 4000 FEET
HIGHER THAN SAN AUGUSTIN PASS...THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INFLUENCE
FROM THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT DOING MORE OF THE WORK IN
GENERATING OUR GUSTY LOWLAND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT BLOWING
DUST IS EVIDENT NOW OVER THE BORDERLAND.

NAM...GFS AND MAJORITY OF SREF ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS POINT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
9 PM. THIS WILL FAVOR TRAPPING OF SOME OF THE MOMENTUM WITH THE
WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN 10 AND 14 KFT AT THAT TIME. RESULT WILL MEAN
GUSTY DOWN SLOPE WINDS TO 50 MPH OR MORE ALONG AND NEAR EAST FACING
SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. FOR EL PASO...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
AREAS...THIS WILL MEAN A VERY WINDY START TO THE EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT

BROAD RATHER FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TEMPORARILY FOLLOW
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND A SHORT BREAK TO OUR WINDY WEATHER. BY FRIDAY
HOWEVER THINGS WILL START TO CHANGE...AS WINDS PICK UP AGAIN OVER
OUR THE REGION. FOR FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. THIS IS AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM EXPECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
CONCERNS CENTER ON HIGH WINDS AREA WIDE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM.HIGH WINDS...POSSIBLY THE STRONGEST WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME
TIME.

FOR SATURDAY...LATEST TRENDS WITH MAJOR FORCING MECHANISMS POINT
TO DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD 30-40 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE. 60 MPH OR MORE ACROSS
RIDGE LINES AND ESPECIALLY EAST ALONG FACING SLOPES. MECHANISMS
INCLUDE DEEP MIX DOWN OF MOMENTUM TO 600-650 MB...WHERE 50 TO 55
MPH WIND ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST...AND DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LARGE
LEE CYCLONE WITH A SFC CENTER BELOW 900 MB OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
ATTENDANT PAC COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY SYSTEM AND SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH AFTER SUNSET. DEPENDING ON ITS TIMING...LIFT IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO MILES WITH
ENHANCEMENT TO THE BLOWING DUST.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE GILA REGION...AS LIFT AND DYNAMIC
COOLING ALOFT ARE GREATEST IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME. UPR LVL TROF
AXIS MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. AS A CONSEQUENCE...LEE SIDE SURFACE
FEATURE WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ANOTHER
WINDY DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ON SATURDAY.
THE OTHER GOOD IS NEWS WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS HAS MEANT A REDUCTION IN BLOWING DUST...THIS
DIRECTION DOES NOT FAVOR THE COMMON SOURCE REGIONS FOR OUR HEAVIER
DUST.

TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK SHOULD RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH MORE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...AS OVERALL PATTERN ALOFT
REMAINS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 24/00Z-25/00Z...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS. 00Z-06Z SKC-SCT250
P6SM XCPT OCNLY 2-3SM IN BLDU TIL 04Z. WIND SOUTHWEST TO WEST
15-25KT G35KT TIL O4Z. AFTR 06Z SCT-BKN200-250 P6SM WIND WEST TO
NORTHWEST 5-15KT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL
CAUSE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE STRONG
WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY FUELS...WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND 8PM THIS EVENING. NOT
AS WIND TOMORROW AND NOT AS WARM...BUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HUMIDTY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. DRY AND VERY WARM FRIDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE GILA
REGION. THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED
BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRY SUNDAY...WITH A MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 60  82  58  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           53  80  51  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              52  78  50  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  77  52  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              36  54  42  61  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   53  76  50  84  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             41  71  48  78  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  47  78  47  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               48  77  49  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  80  58  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               46  82  48  87  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  86  56  93  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  74  52  80  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  54  81  55  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            52  80  54  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          62  78  55  85  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           45  78  46  85  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   46  77  48  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  77  53  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  80  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 42  66  44  72  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               37  67  41  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                37  65  42  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 40  72  46  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               51  73  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               50  75  49  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            37  70  40  77  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  42  73  47  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   38  73  38  81  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              35  72  35  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 47  71  48  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  52  79  51  86  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 48  78  49  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          51  80  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              46  76  47  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ110>113.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ055-056.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

22/21
TRIPOLI/PARK






000
FXUS64 KMAF 232054
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
354 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Updated zones for Svr T-Storm Watch # 88 for Mitchell and Scurry
Counties until 11 PM CDT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  81  54  89  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              60  83  55  92  /  20   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  83  50  91  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  95  62  93  /  20   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  59  92  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  76  57  82  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  78  48  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   46  79  42  85  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  84  56  91  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  61  84  58  90  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    57  85  55  92  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/27






000
FXUS64 KMAF 232054
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
354 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Updated zones for Svr T-Storm Watch # 88 for Mitchell and Scurry
Counties until 11 PM CDT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  81  54  89  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              60  83  55  92  /  20   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  83  50  91  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  95  62  93  /  20   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  59  92  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  76  57  82  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  78  48  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   46  79  42  85  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  84  56  91  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  61  84  58  90  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    57  85  55  92  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/27






000
FXUS64 KMAF 232054
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
354 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Updated zones for Svr T-Storm Watch # 88 for Mitchell and Scurry
Counties until 11 PM CDT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  81  54  89  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              60  83  55  92  /  20   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  83  50  91  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  95  62  93  /  20   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  59  92  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  76  57  82  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  78  48  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   46  79  42  85  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  84  56  91  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  61  84  58  90  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    57  85  55  92  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/27






000
FXUS64 KMAF 232054
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
354 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Updated zones for Svr T-Storm Watch # 88 for Mitchell and Scurry
Counties until 11 PM CDT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  81  54  89  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              60  83  55  92  /  20   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  83  50  91  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  95  62  93  /  20   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  59  92  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  76  57  82  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  78  48  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   46  79  42  85  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  84  56  91  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  61  84  58  90  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    57  85  55  92  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/27






000
FXUS64 KSJT 232052
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
351 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Have updated zone forecast package to reflect Severe Thunderstorm
Watch now in effect until 11PM CDT this evening. This watch includes
all of the Big Country.

&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms still look possible tonight, but its been
working against a few negatives as well. Weak lead shortwave is
rotating across West Central Texas this afternoon, producing a few
weak showers across the area. This wave will continue to the
northeast and not be much of a factor for this afternoon, other than
across the northern and northeast Big Country north of Abilene. To
the west, extensive high clouds are now covering the dryline, which
has inhibited mixing so far and allowed only weak convergence to
develop so far. This area also is seeing a bit of subsidence from
the initial shortwave.

First, areas north of I-20 from Sweetwater to Abilene ahead of the
shortwave will continue to see at least a few showers and storms
through the remainder of the afternoon. We will also look start
looking out to the west for more, probably more intense, development

Second, Models say that the high clouds will thin and push east, and
allow the dryline to sharpen and move east of a Lubbock to Midland
line before sunset. As this happens, then development of storms is
possible along or very near the western borders of the Concho Valley
and Big Country, roughly from Sweetwater to Sterling City, with the
activity pushing east and northeast through the evening hours. This
would place an area north of a San Angelo to Abilene line with the
best rain chances, which is already pretty well covered in the
forecast. Will leave these pops alone for now, and monitor the
development of the high clouds and the dryline. If storms can
develop, shear and instability suggest that severe will be possible.
High LCL`s make for a tough situation for tornadoes,  but very large
hail and damaging winds certainly possible.

Stronger upper level wave, noted on water vapor imagery moving into
Colorado and New Mexico this afternoon, will push east into the
plains early Thursday. This will allow the dryline and then a cold
front to push through West Central Texas before noon. Not much
colder air behind the front, but it will be drier with dewpoints
falling into the 30s and 40s.

7

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)

By Thursday night the upper trough axis will be over the Mississippi
valley with weak upper ridging building over the forecast area. A
weak cold frontal boundary just south of the forecast area will wash
out on Thursday night with weak surface winds swinging back out of
the south. Friday morning lows will range from the mid 50s over the
Big Country to the lower 60s along the Interstate 10 corridor.

The next upper level system that will affect the forecast area will
close off over southern Nevada by Saturday morning and will move
over the four corners area by Saturday afternoon. Ahead of this next
system a dryline will push east and become stationary along our
western CWA border Saturday afternoon. With afternoon highs warming
into the upper 90s Saturday afternoon and given some weak
convergence along the dryline, there will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms primarily along our western counties Saturday
afternoon.

As the upper level system digs southeast toward the northern Texas
Panhandle Saturday evening, the dryline will initially retreat
westward toward the New Mexico border. Then, as the upper level
system lifts toward the Southern Plains, the dryline will push
eastward, aided by a Pacific front, through the forecast area as a
squall line Saturday evening through Saturday night. Our best chance
of meaningful rainfall will be associated with this squall line.
There is a slight chance of strong and possibly severe storms
developing along the squall line as it move east through the area.
The primary threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and deadly
lightning. Thunderstorm activity should be east of the forecast area
by Sunday morning. Sunday morning lows will be in the mid 60s with
afternoon highs on Sunday in the upper 80s. Afternoon highs on
Monday will be in the low to mid 80s after morning lows in the the
mid to upper 50s..

The remainder of the week will be dry and a little cooler as upper
level ridging builds over the area. Highs on Tuesday will be in the
mid 70s to around 80 and on Wednesday in the mid to the upper 70s,
Morning lows on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low to mid 50s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  58  92  66 /  30   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  62  86  59  92  66 /  30   5   5   5   5
Junction  66  88  62  88  66 /  20  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KHGX 232049
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
349 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION TODAY (83-88 INLAND) WITH MOIST
S-SE FLOW IN PLACE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE PLAINS AND S/W ENERGY ROTATES UP OVER THE RED RIVER WHICH
WILL PROBABLY BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR SETX TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
MILD PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWINGS INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE THURSDAY
AND STALLS WITH A GOOD CAP IN PLACE. WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER
AIR ALBEIT BRIEFLY BEFORE SE TO SOUTH FLOW INCREASES.

THIS MOIST FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS
AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY WITH FOG
THREAT A LITTLE GREATER FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR IN THE NORTH AND
NOTICEABLE DEWPOINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH GREATER
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL.

SATURDAY WARM AND MOIST AND AS NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO NM SUNDAY
MORNING RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH LLJ OVERHEAD AND NEARLY
SPLITTING UPPER JET BUT MAY BE TOO CAPPED. BY MONDAY MORNING THE
PACIFIC FRONT IS PUSHING EAST INTO THE REGION AND INCREASING PVA
AND SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE UPPER JET MAY GIVE THE AREA THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT AT 30 NORTH EARLY THEN
TAPERING DOWN TO 20S BY AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODELS
TO FLIP FLOP ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW (WHICH MAY BE
FURTHER NORTH). DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER (AROUND NORMAL TO JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL) SHOULD PREVAIL WED/THU/FRI.
45


&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE STATE. CAUTION FLAGS ARE
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY BY SUNDAY. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  85  65  85  66 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  84  66  84  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  76  68  78  69 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KCRP 232048
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FROM WEST OF RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COAHUILA. THE LATEST HRRR
...HI-RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON WEST OF DEL RIO. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARMING AND DRYING IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB AS WINDS
VEER TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER BUT EXPECT CAP WILL HOLD AND DID NOT
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK EAST WINDS AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG-TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SAT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING TOWARD S TX.
MODELS PROG VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN AND AROUND THE CWA ON SAT...AND
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP. DO FEEL
THE WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP BASED ON MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...THUS KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE
W FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NE CWA DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVG E ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVATED. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST CIN AND BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NE ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF 1.6 INCHES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGD
TO BE MVG TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MEX...WILL PROVIDE MOD/STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS S
TX. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE CWA...FEEL AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW HOT THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL GET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...SFC WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SAT WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE BDRY MVS E. SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR MASS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  85  66  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            72  97  73  96  73  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  68  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  81  70  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  95  68  94  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  88  68  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  82  69  80  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
TE-ANM/81-88...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 232048
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...WITH THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS FROM WEST OF RIO GRANDE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COAHUILA. THE LATEST HRRR
...HI-RES NMM AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON WEST OF DEL RIO. THE MODELS SHOW
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND COULD REACH THE
WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
STRONG WARMING AND DRYING IN THE LAYER FROM 850-500 MB AS WINDS
VEER TO WESTERLY ON THURSDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER BUT EXPECT CAP WILL HOLD AND DID NOT
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALL. WEAK EAST WINDS AND HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG-TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL TRACK ACROSS S TX ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPS. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DIG ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SAT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING TOWARD S TX.
MODELS PROG VERY LITTLE PRECIP IN AND AROUND THE CWA ON SAT...AND
WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP. DO FEEL
THE WESTERN CWA WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP BASED ON MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...THUS KEPT A SILENT 10 POP ACROSS THE
W FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE NE CWA DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVG E ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY IF THE SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVATED. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS SHOW THE LEAST CIN AND BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE NE ALONG WITH PWAT`S OF 1.6 INCHES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS PROGD
TO BE MVG TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS
DEEP S TX AND MEX...WILL PROVIDE MOD/STRONG UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS S
TX. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE
PROXIMITY TO THE NE CWA...FEEL AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA`S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUN. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LEADING TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE
TRACKS...WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW HOT THE COASTAL PLAINS WILL GET BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVG INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...SFC WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BECOME BREEZY ON SAT WITH
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
RELAX THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE BDRY MVS E. SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AIR MASS
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  86  68  87  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  85  66  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            72  97  73  96  73  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             68  91  68  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  81  70  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  95  68  94  70  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        68  88  68  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  82  69  80  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
TE-ANM/81-88...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KLUB 232046
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FIRST LEAD WAVE HAS LARGELY DONE MADE ITS IMPACT AHEAD OF MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WHICH REMAINS OUT NEAR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AT
MID-DAY.  AREA OF MODEST DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON.  TSTMS STILL EXPECTED TO FIRE OUT EAST WITH HAIL /TO GOLF
BALLS/ AND WIND /60 PLUS MPH/ THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS ORIENTED SW/NE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING.  IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE INITIATION TIME GIVEN
THE NEBULOUS NATURE OF THE DRYLINE THOUGH THE EASTWARD MIX HAS BEGUN
IN EARNEST.  THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHICH ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
A DRYLINE BULGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RISK
WITH A TRAILING MCS POSSIBLE DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN JUST HOW LONG THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND
THERE IS SOME SMALL RISK THAT INCREASING MOISTURE IN A BACKED WIND
ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT TO SOME EXTENT INVOF
KCDS.  THEREAFTER...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  WILL STILL REMAIN 10-15
PCT POPS OUT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TRENDING SHARPLY DOWN THEREAFTER AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES INTO
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH SKIES CLEARING
NICELY.  OVERALL...A NICE SPRING DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY REMAINS UNLIKELY BUT CHANCES ARE GREATER THAN
ZERO. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT CONVECTS ON FRIDAY
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONE OF THE FEW FACTORS GOING FOR IT
WILL BE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. A PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL EXIST INTO THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ACCORDING TO THE NAM. ANALOG GUIDANCE SURPRISINGLY
INDICATES A FEW PREVIOUS SEVERE EVENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. NEUTRAL
HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE OVERHEAD IN BETWEEN RIDGING ALOFT AND A DEEP
TROUGH DIGGING OUT ON THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING IN A BROAD
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY WITH A FURIOUSLY DEEPENING SYSTEM.
AT THE MOMENT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST OF THE ANTICIPATED
SEVERE EVENTS WILL EVADE THE FA BUT THE ROLLING PLAINS STAND THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AROUND 250M IN ONLY 12 HOURS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROXIMATELY 16MB DROP IN 24 HOURS. THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE REMAINS MURKY BUT THE LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS DO KEEP THE
DRYLINE SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BACKED AT LEAST
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES AT THUNDER MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE EVENING
AS A PACIFIC FRONT COLLIDES WITH THE RETREATING DRYLINE. PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2KJ/KG WILL EXIST EAST OF THE RETREATING
DRYLINE AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT MAY BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS.

IF THE WIND DOES NOT BLOW ENOUGH ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY WILL BE A
REAL TREAT WITH POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  74  44  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         49  75  47  86  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  75  49  88  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  77  52  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       52  77  53  89  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  77  51  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  78  52  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  78  49  88  62 /  40   0   0  10  10
SPUR          56  79  53  91  63 /  20   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  79  53  93  64 /  30   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

26/01






000
FXUS64 KAMA 232038
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

.LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                45  71  45  85  52 /   5   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  47  74  44  87  57 /  30   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              42  72  40  85  47 /  10   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  49  76  51  88  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              45  75  47  88  51 /   5   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  45  72  47  85  51 /   5   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               52  75  47  85  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 41  74  37  87  44 /   5   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  45  75  42  86  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                45  71  45  85  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                50  74  44  82  61 /  30   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   48  74  47  83  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                53  76  48  83  60 /  30   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              56  77  49  84  59 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/05





000
FXUS64 KAMA 232038
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
338 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER QUICK SUMMARY...
OVERALL ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ISO TOR ACROSS
SE TX PANHANDLE.
TIMING: THROUGH 9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER LINE

SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE HINDERED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE
BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS INDICATES THE DRYLINE IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY FROM SILVERTON TO SPEARMAN TO HOOKER.
LAPS ANALYSIS EAST OF THIS LINE SHOWS DECENT CAPE VALUES (~1500+
J/KG) WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH OUR 18Z SPECIAL SOUNDING (LAUNCHED
PRIOR TO THE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT). THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES
HAS A NICE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HI-RES MODELS ARE HAVING
A HARD TIME CATCHING UP TOO. WITH THAT CONSIDERATION LCL HEIGHTS IN
THAT AREA ARE LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS. THIS WILL BE AN
AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS, AND THE INCREASED
VEERING DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD LEND
ITSELF TO INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO FOCUS THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUT FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO END BY 9 PM AS THE
VARIOUS FACTORS BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

.LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 80S FRIDAY. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW FURTHER DEEPENS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. NWP MODELS
DEPICT THE DRYLINE MIXING INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS LOW MAY
PREVENT THE DRYLINE TO MIX TOO FAR EAST. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FOR NOW. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN
RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT. THUS WILL SEE COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...LEAVING DRY AND
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RANGE AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 20 PERCENT
LATE THIS EVENING. MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS RANGE NEAR 10 TO 20 MPH. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE CHANCE
FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                45  71  45  85  52 /   5   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  47  74  44  87  57 /  30   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              42  72  40  85  47 /  10   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  49  76  51  88  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              45  75  47  88  51 /   5   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  45  72  47  85  51 /   5   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               52  75  47  85  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 41  74  37  87  44 /   5   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  45  75  42  86  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                45  71  45  85  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                50  74  44  82  61 /  30   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   48  74  47  83  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                53  76  48  83  60 /  30   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              56  77  49  84  59 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/05






000
FXUS64 KSJT 232031
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014


.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Showers and thunderstorms still look possible tonight, but its been
working against a few negatives as well. Weak lead shortwave is
rotating across West Central Texas this afternoon, producing a few
weak showers across the area. This wave will continue to the
northeast and not be much of a factor for this afternoon, other than
across the northern and northeast Big Country north of Abilene. To
the west, extensive high clouds are now covering the dryline, which
has inhibited mixing so far and allowed only weak convergence to
develop so far. This area also is seeing a bit of subsidence from
the initial shortwave.

First, areas north of I-20 from Sweetwater to Abilene ahead of the
shortwave will continue to see at least a few showers and storms
through the remainder of the afternoon. We will also look start
looking out to the west for more, probably more intense, development

Second, Models say that the high clouds will thin and push east, and
allow the dryline to sharpen and move east of a Lubbock to Midland
line before sunset. As this happens, then development of storms is
possible along or very near the western borders of the Concho Valley
and Big Country, roughly from Sweetwater to Sterling City, with the
activity pushing east and northeast through the evening hours. This
would place an area north of a San Angelo to Abilene line with the
best rain chances, which is already pretty well covered in the
forecast. Will leave these pops alone for now, and monitor the
development of the high clouds and the dryline. If storms can
develop, shear and instability suggest that severe will be possible.
High LCL`s make for a tough situation for tornadoes,  but very large
hail and damaging winds certainly possible.

Stronger upper level wave, noted on water vapor imagery moving into
Colorado and New Mexico this afternoon, will push east into the
plains early Thursday. This will allow the dryline and then a cold
front to push through West Central Texas before noon. Not much
colder air behind the front, but it will be drier with dewpoints
falling into the 30s and 40s.

7

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)

By Thursday night the upper trough axis will be over the Mississippi
valley with weak upper ridging building over the forecast area. A
weak cold frontal boundary just south of the forecast area will wash
out on Thursday night with weak surface winds swinging back out of
the south. Friday morning lows will range from the mid 50s over the
Big Country to the lower 60s along the Interstate 10 corridor.

The next upper level system that will affect the forecast area will
close off over southern Nevada by Saturday morning and will move
over the four corners area by Saturday afternoon. Ahead of this next
system a dryline will push east and become stationary along our
western CWA border Saturday afternoon. With afternoon highs warming
into the upper 90s Saturday afternoon and given some weak
convergence along the dryline, there will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms primarily along our western counties Saturday
afternoon.

As the upper level system digs southeast toward the northern Texas
Panhandle Saturday evening, the dryline will initially retreat
westward toward the New Mexico border. Then, as the upper level
system lifts toward the Southern Plains, the dryline will push
eastward, aided by a Pacific front, through the forecast area as a
squall line Saturday evening through Saturday night. Our best chance
of meaningful rainfall will be associated with this squall line.
There is a slight chance of strong and possibly severe storms
developing along the squall line as it move east through the area.
The primary threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and deadly
lightning. Thunderstorm activity should be east of the forecast area
by Sunday morning. Sunday morning lows will be in the mid 60s with
afternoon highs on Sunday in the upper 80s. Afternoon highs on
Monday will be in the low to mid 80s after morning lows in the the
mid to upper 50s..

The remainder of the week will be dry and a little cooler as upper
level ridging builds over the area. Highs on Tuesday will be in the
mid 70s to around 80 and on Wednesday in the mid to the upper 70s,
Morning lows on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low to mid 50s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  83  58  92  66 /  30   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  62  86  59  92  66 /  30   5   5   5   5
Junction  66  88  62  88  66 /  20  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KFWD 232025
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS STILL IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT ASCENT IS OCCURRING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. A
TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN STREAMING INTO WEST TEXAS...
WITH PERSISTENT MID CLOUDS...AND HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
BEEN ONGOING SINCE THE MORNING HOURS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. LEE SURFACE TROUGHING BELOW HAS QUICKLY
INTENSIFIED THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND THIS DRYLINE
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE AWAY FROM THE UNSTABLE
AREA TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. OUR AREA OF INTEREST FOR
INITIATION WILL BE GENERALLY FROM VERNON TO ABILENE...WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS NEAR
60F...WHICH EQUATES TO MLCAPE VALUES NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF
2000J/KG. A CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THIS AREA...BUT
ONLY MINIMAL VERTICAL EXTENT IS EVIDENT AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
INITIATION IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BEGIN BETWEEN 4
AND 6 PM CDT.

INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST...BUT THE ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE EAST...INVADING
THE FWD CWA THIS EVENING. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXCEEDING 40KTS
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...UPDRAFTS ROOTED IN A VERY
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL. LCL VALUES WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
THREAT. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER
A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND GENERALLY INCREASING CAP
STRENGTH (AND DECREASING HELICITY). THE RESULT WILL BE EITHER:
(1) STEADILY DISSIPATING STORMS... OR (2) STORMS THAT GRADUALLY
SEPARATE FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LATTER DOES NOT NECESSARILY
IMPLY A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INTENSITY...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. THE BULK OF ANY
REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THE BACK EDGE GENERALLY COINCIDENT
WITH THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
POTENT...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT BE NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER. THERE WILL REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN
EASTERN ZONES MIDDAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS LOW.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE QUICKLY
DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LONG BEFORE THEY
COULD REACH NORTH TEXAS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL AREA OF INTEREST WILL
BE THE RETREATING 850MB FRONT...WHICH WILL BE DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...ABOVE A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY
AT THE SURFACE. WITH MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AND
NO UPPER SUPPORT...DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS/WX AT THIS TIME.

A FAR MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
ON SATURDAY. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS WEST TEXAS ONCE AGAIN.
THE AREA AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY (WEDNESDAY)...WITH ANY POTENTIAL ACTIVITY INVADING NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE STORM MODE WILL FAVOR DISCRETE
(POTENTIALLY TORNADIC) SUPERCELLS...BUT THE STORM MOTION MAY KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WITHIN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT WITH
A VIGOROUS LLJ...THE ACTIVITY MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO TURN RIGHT
TOWARD NORTH TEXAS. THE LLJ WILL ALSO SERVE TO MAINTAIN A TORNADO
THREAT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A TRANSITION TO AN MCS WITH AN
ENHANCED WIND THREAT MAY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION THAT LINGERS SUNDAY MORNING WILL HAVE
A CONSIDERABLE BEARING ON THE EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY. A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET SWINGING AROUND THE BASE
OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD...PERHAPS
AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WOULD MORE LIKELY OCCUR IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY MAY HANG UP...MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS SUNDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY.
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL AIR WILL FOLLOW NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
LOW LINGERS IN THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL MEAN LITTLE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND PERSISTENT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  67  82  61  85 /   0  30  20   0   0
WACO, TX              86  66  83  60  85 /   0  20  20   5   0
PARIS, TX             82  63  78  55  82 /   0  20  30   5   5
DENTON, TX            86  67  82  55  84 /   0  30  20   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          85  66  81  52  84 /   0  20  20   0   0
DALLAS, TX            87  67  82  63  84 /   0  20  20   0   0
TERRELL, TX           85  65  81  58  84 /   0  20  20   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         85  65  82  62  84 /   0  20  20   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            85  65  83  61  85 /   0  20  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  64  83  55  87 /   0  30  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25






000
FXUS64 KEWX 232001
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
301 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LIFT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HAS GENERATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO OF MEXICO. HI-RES MODELS BRING SOME
OF THESE EAST TO NEAR I-35 BY MIDNIGHT PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE
HI-RES MODELS HAVE DONE WELL LATELY AND WILL FOLLOW THEM. LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR SUGGEST SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. ISOLATED
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY DRAGGING A
PACIFIC FRONT EAST TO ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 BY AFTERNOON. LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS TROUGH PASSES WELL NORTH AND WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WOULD GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTING STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END WITH SUNSET THURSDAY. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONT RETREATS BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO AND
DRYLINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH STEERING FLOW TAKING THEM EAST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BY EVENING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO
THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRAG ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TO NEAR THE I-35 SUNDAY AND TO THE COAST MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AND FAR EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME STRONG STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AND WARM TEMPERATURES OFF THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU. A COLD FRONT WITH SOME ORIGINS IN CANADA WILL
SURGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY WITH A COOLER AIRMASS AND
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES
AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WETTING
RAINS WILL BE SPARSE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  88  64  87  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  88  63  87  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     65  89  65  88  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  88  62  87  68 /  10  10  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  96  68  94  72 /  20  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  87  63  86  69 /  10  10  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  94  65  94  70 /  20  10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  88  64  87  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   66  86  65  85  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  90  66  90  69 /  10  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  92  66  91  69 /  10  10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KMAF 231943
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  81  54  89  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              60  83  55  92  /  20   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  83  50  91  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  95  62  93  /  20   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  59  92  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  76  57  82  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  78  48  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   46  79  42  85  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  84  56  91  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  61  84  58  90  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    57  85  55  92  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

72/29






000
FXUS64 KMAF 231943
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  81  54  89  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              60  83  55  92  /  20   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  83  50  91  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  95  62  93  /  20   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  59  92  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  76  57  82  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  78  48  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   46  79  42  85  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  84  56  91  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  61  84  58  90  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    57  85  55  92  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

72/29





000
FXUS64 KBRO 231845
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
145 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE MAIN FIRST
PERIOD ISSUE WILL BE INCREASED SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS DUE TO A
DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS TIGHTENING UP THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH RESIDENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF. THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAVE MORE IMPACT FOR THE
MARINE AREAS...SEE BELOW DISCUSSION...BUT MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW WILL REPRESENT A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL WIND REGIME FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV. MOISTURE
WILL KEEP PILING UP ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS TONIGHT...WITH
COPIOUS LOW CLOUDINESS SETTING UP UNDER A STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE THAT WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOK FOR 10
TO 20 MPH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 70 DEGREES.

MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF U.S. 281
THURSDAY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH A DRY LINE MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FROM
THE WEST...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FROM THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER MAY BE A CATEGORY LESS OUT WEST TOMORROW
AS A RESULT...OR PARTLY CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES
OF ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND STARR...POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST.
COULD SEE SOME POP UP SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE FRONT/DRY
LINE BOUNDARY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH LOCALLY IN THE DRIER REGIME
OUT WEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FAR WEST.

THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR 70...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST BUT CLEARER INLAND. LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY
TO AREAS OF LIGHT TO MDT FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AND HIGH DEW
POINTS BUMP UP AGAINST EACH OTHER.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

MAINLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CYCLOGENSIS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGH
PLAINS AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE GULF WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A 80 KNOT UPPER
LEVEL JET AND WEAK VORTICITY MAX COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OUT WEST BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW DONT THINK ITS WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE PUBLIC ZONES.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY...GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF A DRYLINE/TROUGH WITH VERY DRY
AIR BEHIND IT. FAIRLY LOW HUMIDITY /9-20% WEST OF HWY 281/ IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS TO SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S. USED A LITTLE MORE ECX DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD /ECX WARMER THAN MEX/ TO BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
100S ACROSS MORE AREAS WEST OF HWY 281 AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
BETWEEN HWY 281 AND HWY 77.

THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING. LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT AS WELL SO NO
PRECIPITATION. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER AND
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND BOOSTING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
APPROACH 20 KTS OVER THE GULF TONIGHT...AND LOW SEAS WILL BUILD TO
MODERATE...WITH LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE FILLS INTO WEST TEXAS FROM FARTHER WEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5-7 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXERCISE CAUTION WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS SEAS ARE SLOW TO FALL DESPITE SURFACE WINDS
DECREASING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  71  84  71  84 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          71  85  71  86 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            70  89  69  89 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              71  92  71  93 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      70  97  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  79  69  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58






000
FXUS64 KFWD 231754
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1254 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE ONSET OF
MVFR STRATUS ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWS THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION NEAR A LINE FROM VERNON TO ABILENE AROUND 00Z THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE EAST AT 25 MPH OR SO
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...TRANSITIONING FROM SURFACE BASED TO
ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP PROVIDE CONTINUED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS IMPACTING DFW AREA AIRPORTS HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO MENTION
A VCTS IN THE 09 TO 12Z WINDOW. ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
TEMPORARILY REDUCE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR...AND LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS...GENERALLY LOWER THAN 40 MPH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AT BEST...THEREFORE STORMS MAY DIRECTLY
IMPACT SOME AREA AIRPORTS WHILE MISSING OTHERS. THE BEST FORCING
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE DFW AREA AFTER 12Z.

A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SEND SOME SHALLOW STRATUS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MVFR STRATUS WILL
LIKELY IMPACT WACO BY 10Z...REACHING THE DFW AREA TAF SITES AROUND
12Z. STRATUS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT QUICKLY FOR DFW AREA
TAF SITES AS WINDS VEER STRONGLY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY. WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS JUST AHEAD OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT.

CAVANAUGH


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/
OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY WITH UPPER
HEIGHT FALLS FORECASTED TO COMMENCE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP WELL
WEST OF THE CWA AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LIKELY GIVEN THE UPPER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS. STORM MOTIONS TODAY SHOULD
BE IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AND ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
COULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
FORECASTED TO BE MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...INCREASING CIN THIS
EVENING WILL LIMIT THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED STORMS INTO
THE CWA...BUT ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING BEFORE STORMS SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE
MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE TONIGHT WILL BE ELEVATED STORMS...ROOTED
AROUND 10KFT. WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING INCREASING MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. SEVERAL FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING QPF OVERNIGHT AND THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY
CAUSE. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR 7.5C/KM AND CANT RULE
OUT AN ELEVATED SEVERE STORM WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL. THE MID-
LEVELS WILL DRY AFTER 12Z...ENDING PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED GIVEN LITTLE FORCING. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN CAPE VALUES NEAR 3500 J/KG. TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S...VERSUS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S EXPECTED TODAY.

A SHORT DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY. THIS NEXT
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO...BUT
THE CURRENT FORECASTED TRACK OF THE CENTER WILL BE WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. STORMS WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE DRYLINE ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BE IN WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER...ELEVATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...LIMITING
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY SUNDAY...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE EAST AND THIS IS OUR
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE PUSHING
THE DRYLINE A LITTLE TOO QUICK. AT 12Z SUNDAY ITS FORECASTED
POSITION IS NEAR ABILENE AND BY 18Z IT IS FORECASTING THE DRYLINE
TO BE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS IS A COMMON PROBLEM WITH ITS
FORECASTS OF DRYLINES AND WILL HOLD ONTO POPS A BIT FARTHER WEST
THAN WHAT IT IS FORECASTING. TO COMPARE...THE ECMWF HAS THE DRYLINE
ALONG I-35 AND THE CANADIAN POSITIONS IT WEST OF I-35 AT 18Z
SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ELIMINATION OF THE CAP BY MID-
DAY SUNDAY. CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION FOR STORMS
THAT DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE MONDAY MORNING AND COOLER
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS AN OMEGA
BLOCK WHICH ALLOWS THE UPPER LOW TO STALL AND DEEPEN EAST OF
TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTH FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

HAMPSHIRE



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  67  82  61  85 /   0  30  20   0   0
WACO, TX              86  66  83  60  85 /   0  20  20   5   0
PARIS, TX             82  63  78  55  82 /   0  20  30   5   5
DENTON, TX            86  67  82  55  84 /   0  30  20   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          85  66  81  52  84 /   0  20  20   0   0
DALLAS, TX            87  67  82  63  84 /   0  20  20   0   0
TERRELL, TX           85  65  81  58  84 /   0  20  20   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         85  65  82  62  84 /   0  20  20   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            85  65  83  61  85 /   0  20  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  64  83  55  87 /   0  30  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KCRP 231746 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND NEAR HEBBRONVILLE AT 17Z WILL LIFT ABOVE 3 KFT BY
19Z. CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FEET WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 21-22Z OVER
THE INLAND AREAS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT LOW MVFR CEILINGS TO
FORM BETWEEN 02-04Z THURSDAY OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND
SPREAD TO LAREDO AREA BY 10Z THURSDAY. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO IFR BY 07-08Z FOR COASTAL TAF SITES WITH MVFR VSBY IN FOG
POSSIBLE FOR VCT/ALI. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 15Z FOR
COASTAL AREAS WHILE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AT LRD TO
VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          86  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            96  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 231746 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND NEAR HEBBRONVILLE AT 17Z WILL LIFT ABOVE 3 KFT BY
19Z. CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FEET WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 21-22Z OVER
THE INLAND AREAS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT LOW MVFR CEILINGS TO
FORM BETWEEN 02-04Z THURSDAY OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND
SPREAD TO LAREDO AREA BY 10Z THURSDAY. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO IFR BY 07-08Z FOR COASTAL TAF SITES WITH MVFR VSBY IN FOG
POSSIBLE FOR VCT/ALI. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 15Z FOR
COASTAL AREAS WHILE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AT LRD TO
VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          86  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            96  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 231746 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND NEAR HEBBRONVILLE AT 17Z WILL LIFT ABOVE 3 KFT BY
19Z. CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FEET WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 21-22Z OVER
THE INLAND AREAS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT LOW MVFR CEILINGS TO
FORM BETWEEN 02-04Z THURSDAY OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND
SPREAD TO LAREDO AREA BY 10Z THURSDAY. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO IFR BY 07-08Z FOR COASTAL TAF SITES WITH MVFR VSBY IN FOG
POSSIBLE FOR VCT/ALI. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 15Z FOR
COASTAL AREAS WHILE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AT LRD TO
VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          86  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            96  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 231746 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND NEAR HEBBRONVILLE AT 17Z WILL LIFT ABOVE 3 KFT BY
19Z. CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FEET WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 21-22Z OVER
THE INLAND AREAS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT LOW MVFR CEILINGS TO
FORM BETWEEN 02-04Z THURSDAY OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND
SPREAD TO LAREDO AREA BY 10Z THURSDAY. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO IFR BY 07-08Z FOR COASTAL TAF SITES WITH MVFR VSBY IN FOG
POSSIBLE FOR VCT/ALI. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 15Z FOR
COASTAL AREAS WHILE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT AT LRD TO
VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          86  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            96  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KMAF 231738
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A dryline will continue to push east this afternoon with a few
thunderstorms possible.  Expect storms to develop east of MAF and
FST so have not included.  Gusty S to SW wind will continue through
sunset before dropping off.  A cold front will move through the
area tomorrow morning around sunrise.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A Large upper level trough across the western states will slowly
move eastward from the Great Basin today to the high plains by
Thursday morning. As this occurs the associated surface
trough/low across the western high plains will shift eastward
today toward the eastern Permian Basin by this evening and to
central Texas by Thursday morning. Increasing low level convergence
and upper level forcing should encourage thunderstorm development
along the stalling dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon. More thunderstorm development
will be possible tonight in these areas as the dryline retreats
toward the eastern Permian Basin as the upper level trough
approaches. Some storms could be severe given cape values of 1000
to 2000 j/kg and 0 to 6 kilometer shear of 30 knots. High winds
are also likely in the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and this
evening as the system approaches. A high wind warning has been
issued for that area.

Cooler (but still above normal) temperatures and fair conditions
will follow this system Thursday as surface high pressure builds
into the region.

Southwesterly flow aloft will develop by Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next potent upper level storm system approaching from the
western states. Much above normal temperatures are expected as
another lee surface low/dry line develops in this flow. Thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening along and east of
the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin as the upper system
tracks to Arizona by evening. Behind the dryline breezy to windy
conditions will develop with high winds possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Saturday.

Windy, Cooler and dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday
behind the dryline and cold front with high winds possible again
in the Guadalupe Mountains. Cool with below normal temperatures
and fair conditions may continue next Tuesday and Wednesday
with upper level cyclonic flow progged to be over the forecast
area.

FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline will sharpen up over the area this afternoon as
southwesterly winds increase ahead of an upper level storm system
moving over New Mexico.  Temperatures will warm above normal to the
west of the dryline with afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent
along and west of an Andrews to Big Bend line.  Since 20 foot winds
will increase to 20 to 25 mph sustained across the Guadalupe
Mountains and over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, and
fire danger will be very high, a Red Flag warning will continue in
effect in these areas from 11 am until 9 pm MDT.  The highest winds
are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is
in effect from noon until midnight MDT.  Recovery will mainly be
poor to fair tonight.

A cold front will move south over the area Thursday.  20 foot winds
behind the front will rise to 15 to 20 mph over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin Thursday morning, but should be 10 to
15 mph at best during the afternoon.  High temperatures will be
closer to normal, but most locations will see minimum afternoon RH/s
of 10 to 15 percent.  After poor to fair recovery west of the Pecos
River Thursday night, and good to the east, another upper storm
system will begin to approach the region.  Near critical to critical
fire weather conditions will occur in the Guadalupe Mountains Friday
afternoon, if not over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.
However, much more widespread windy conditions will occur over all
of southeast New Mexico and West Texas Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be well above normal Saturday, but not quite as
warm Sunday.  Regardless, it appears low RH/s will combine with high
to very high fire danger to create widespread critical fire weather
both days.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMAF 231738
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A dryline will continue to push east this afternoon with a few
thunderstorms possible.  Expect storms to develop east of MAF and
FST so have not included.  Gusty S to SW wind will continue through
sunset before dropping off.  A cold front will move through the
area tomorrow morning around sunrise.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A Large upper level trough across the western states will slowly
move eastward from the Great Basin today to the high plains by
Thursday morning. As this occurs the associated surface
trough/low across the western high plains will shift eastward
today toward the eastern Permian Basin by this evening and to
central Texas by Thursday morning. Increasing low level convergence
and upper level forcing should encourage thunderstorm development
along the stalling dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon. More thunderstorm development
will be possible tonight in these areas as the dryline retreats
toward the eastern Permian Basin as the upper level trough
approaches. Some storms could be severe given cape values of 1000
to 2000 j/kg and 0 to 6 kilometer shear of 30 knots. High winds
are also likely in the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and this
evening as the system approaches. A high wind warning has been
issued for that area.

Cooler (but still above normal) temperatures and fair conditions
will follow this system Thursday as surface high pressure builds
into the region.

Southwesterly flow aloft will develop by Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next potent upper level storm system approaching from the
western states. Much above normal temperatures are expected as
another lee surface low/dry line develops in this flow. Thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening along and east of
the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin as the upper system
tracks to Arizona by evening. Behind the dryline breezy to windy
conditions will develop with high winds possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Saturday.

Windy, Cooler and dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday
behind the dryline and cold front with high winds possible again
in the Guadalupe Mountains. Cool with below normal temperatures
and fair conditions may continue next Tuesday and Wednesday
with upper level cyclonic flow progged to be over the forecast
area.

FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline will sharpen up over the area this afternoon as
southwesterly winds increase ahead of an upper level storm system
moving over New Mexico.  Temperatures will warm above normal to the
west of the dryline with afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent
along and west of an Andrews to Big Bend line.  Since 20 foot winds
will increase to 20 to 25 mph sustained across the Guadalupe
Mountains and over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, and
fire danger will be very high, a Red Flag warning will continue in
effect in these areas from 11 am until 9 pm MDT.  The highest winds
are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is
in effect from noon until midnight MDT.  Recovery will mainly be
poor to fair tonight.

A cold front will move south over the area Thursday.  20 foot winds
behind the front will rise to 15 to 20 mph over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin Thursday morning, but should be 10 to
15 mph at best during the afternoon.  High temperatures will be
closer to normal, but most locations will see minimum afternoon RH/s
of 10 to 15 percent.  After poor to fair recovery west of the Pecos
River Thursday night, and good to the east, another upper storm
system will begin to approach the region.  Near critical to critical
fire weather conditions will occur in the Guadalupe Mountains Friday
afternoon, if not over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.
However, much more widespread windy conditions will occur over all
of southeast New Mexico and West Texas Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be well above normal Saturday, but not quite as
warm Sunday.  Regardless, it appears low RH/s will combine with high
to very high fire danger to create widespread critical fire weather
both days.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMAF 231738
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A dryline will continue to push east this afternoon with a few
thunderstorms possible.  Expect storms to develop east of MAF and
FST so have not included.  Gusty S to SW wind will continue through
sunset before dropping off.  A cold front will move through the
area tomorrow morning around sunrise.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A Large upper level trough across the western states will slowly
move eastward from the Great Basin today to the high plains by
Thursday morning. As this occurs the associated surface
trough/low across the western high plains will shift eastward
today toward the eastern Permian Basin by this evening and to
central Texas by Thursday morning. Increasing low level convergence
and upper level forcing should encourage thunderstorm development
along the stalling dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon. More thunderstorm development
will be possible tonight in these areas as the dryline retreats
toward the eastern Permian Basin as the upper level trough
approaches. Some storms could be severe given cape values of 1000
to 2000 j/kg and 0 to 6 kilometer shear of 30 knots. High winds
are also likely in the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and this
evening as the system approaches. A high wind warning has been
issued for that area.

Cooler (but still above normal) temperatures and fair conditions
will follow this system Thursday as surface high pressure builds
into the region.

Southwesterly flow aloft will develop by Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next potent upper level storm system approaching from the
western states. Much above normal temperatures are expected as
another lee surface low/dry line develops in this flow. Thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening along and east of
the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin as the upper system
tracks to Arizona by evening. Behind the dryline breezy to windy
conditions will develop with high winds possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Saturday.

Windy, Cooler and dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday
behind the dryline and cold front with high winds possible again
in the Guadalupe Mountains. Cool with below normal temperatures
and fair conditions may continue next Tuesday and Wednesday
with upper level cyclonic flow progged to be over the forecast
area.

FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline will sharpen up over the area this afternoon as
southwesterly winds increase ahead of an upper level storm system
moving over New Mexico.  Temperatures will warm above normal to the
west of the dryline with afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent
along and west of an Andrews to Big Bend line.  Since 20 foot winds
will increase to 20 to 25 mph sustained across the Guadalupe
Mountains and over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, and
fire danger will be very high, a Red Flag warning will continue in
effect in these areas from 11 am until 9 pm MDT.  The highest winds
are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is
in effect from noon until midnight MDT.  Recovery will mainly be
poor to fair tonight.

A cold front will move south over the area Thursday.  20 foot winds
behind the front will rise to 15 to 20 mph over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin Thursday morning, but should be 10 to
15 mph at best during the afternoon.  High temperatures will be
closer to normal, but most locations will see minimum afternoon RH/s
of 10 to 15 percent.  After poor to fair recovery west of the Pecos
River Thursday night, and good to the east, another upper storm
system will begin to approach the region.  Near critical to critical
fire weather conditions will occur in the Guadalupe Mountains Friday
afternoon, if not over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.
However, much more widespread windy conditions will occur over all
of southeast New Mexico and West Texas Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be well above normal Saturday, but not quite as
warm Sunday.  Regardless, it appears low RH/s will combine with high
to very high fire danger to create widespread critical fire weather
both days.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMAF 231738
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A dryline will continue to push east this afternoon with a few
thunderstorms possible.  Expect storms to develop east of MAF and
FST so have not included.  Gusty S to SW wind will continue through
sunset before dropping off.  A cold front will move through the
area tomorrow morning around sunrise.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A Large upper level trough across the western states will slowly
move eastward from the Great Basin today to the high plains by
Thursday morning. As this occurs the associated surface
trough/low across the western high plains will shift eastward
today toward the eastern Permian Basin by this evening and to
central Texas by Thursday morning. Increasing low level convergence
and upper level forcing should encourage thunderstorm development
along the stalling dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon. More thunderstorm development
will be possible tonight in these areas as the dryline retreats
toward the eastern Permian Basin as the upper level trough
approaches. Some storms could be severe given cape values of 1000
to 2000 j/kg and 0 to 6 kilometer shear of 30 knots. High winds
are also likely in the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and this
evening as the system approaches. A high wind warning has been
issued for that area.

Cooler (but still above normal) temperatures and fair conditions
will follow this system Thursday as surface high pressure builds
into the region.

Southwesterly flow aloft will develop by Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next potent upper level storm system approaching from the
western states. Much above normal temperatures are expected as
another lee surface low/dry line develops in this flow. Thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening along and east of
the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin as the upper system
tracks to Arizona by evening. Behind the dryline breezy to windy
conditions will develop with high winds possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Saturday.

Windy, Cooler and dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday
behind the dryline and cold front with high winds possible again
in the Guadalupe Mountains. Cool with below normal temperatures
and fair conditions may continue next Tuesday and Wednesday
with upper level cyclonic flow progged to be over the forecast
area.

FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline will sharpen up over the area this afternoon as
southwesterly winds increase ahead of an upper level storm system
moving over New Mexico.  Temperatures will warm above normal to the
west of the dryline with afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent
along and west of an Andrews to Big Bend line.  Since 20 foot winds
will increase to 20 to 25 mph sustained across the Guadalupe
Mountains and over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, and
fire danger will be very high, a Red Flag warning will continue in
effect in these areas from 11 am until 9 pm MDT.  The highest winds
are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is
in effect from noon until midnight MDT.  Recovery will mainly be
poor to fair tonight.

A cold front will move south over the area Thursday.  20 foot winds
behind the front will rise to 15 to 20 mph over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin Thursday morning, but should be 10 to
15 mph at best during the afternoon.  High temperatures will be
closer to normal, but most locations will see minimum afternoon RH/s
of 10 to 15 percent.  After poor to fair recovery west of the Pecos
River Thursday night, and good to the east, another upper storm
system will begin to approach the region.  Near critical to critical
fire weather conditions will occur in the Guadalupe Mountains Friday
afternoon, if not over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.
However, much more widespread windy conditions will occur over all
of southeast New Mexico and West Texas Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be well above normal Saturday, but not quite as
warm Sunday.  Regardless, it appears low RH/s will combine with high
to very high fire danger to create widespread critical fire weather
both days.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KHGX 231738
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1238 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY AM FOG HAS SCATTERED OUT WITH CU FIELD NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR CIGS FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE AS MODELS CAN TEND TO
OVERDO MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE REGION BUT BOTH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT. DECIDED AGAINST USING
TEMPO GROUPS FOR MOST SITES AS THERE WONT BE MUCH VARIANCE... ONCE
IFR CIGS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD
QUICKLY SCATTER OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA SUPPORTING A DECK OF BKN/SCT
CLOUDS AFTER THE DENSE FOG DISSIPATED EARLIER THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THEN SCATTER OUT AREAWIDE
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTH. SHOULD
BE A PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TONIGHT AND MAY SEE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWER CIGS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT AS WELL. UPDATED ZFP OUT SHORTLY FOR CURRENT
WINDS AND SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TODAY
WITHOUT ANY DIFFICULTY IN A DEEP WELL MIXED BL UP THROUGH 4.5-5.5KFT.

45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR RADIATIVE FOG FORMATION SINCE MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTY DENSE FOG PRIMARILY WEST OF I-45 AND SOUTH OF I-10
HAS LOWERED VISIBILITIES TO A 1/4 MILE OR LESS. ONCE THE FOG
BREAKS...THE FORECAST IS FOR ANOTHER WARM AND PARTIALLY CLOUDY
DAY. A MORE MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND DAY THAT WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES
ON THE UP AND UP...MAKING THIS AFTERNOON FEEL A BIT MORE OF WHAT
WE`RE USED TO AROUND HERE IN LATE APRIL...WARM AND A TOUCH MORE
MUGGY.

HIGHER LOWER LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL BE MORE REALIZED IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE RETURN OF DENSE RADIATIVE FOG. THE THREAT FOR THURSDAY
MORNING FOG WILL BE MINIMIZED BY A STRONGER ONSHORE WIND AS LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE KEEP THE ONSHORE GRADIENT JUST TIGHT
ENOUGH IN GENERATING A 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WIND. THIS SURFACE
BREEZE...AND A MODELED 95H 25-30 KT OFF-THE-SURFACE WIND FIELD...
SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG
RETURNS FRIDAY MORNING AS MID-LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN. RESIDENT
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINT AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THUR NITE/FRI
MORN WITH A WEAKENED WIND FIELD FROM A PASSING SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SET THE SCENE FOR A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT. THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELL OR TWO BRUSHING THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERN CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SPC HAS DAY 2 OUTLOOKED IN GENERAL
TO COMMUNICATE THIS SLIGHT STORM THREAT. GENERAL MENTION AS ANY
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DOING SO
WITHIN A VERY WARM AND HUMID (UN-CAPPED) LATE DAY AIR MASS.

THE ENSEMBLE IS STILL MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF AN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST 5H TROUGH WHOSE AXIS WILL BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG A POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEADING A MAIN COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL DEPENDENT
UPON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT/SHARPNESS OF 5H TROUGH AXIS AS TO
WHETHER REGION WILL EXPERIENCE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY-MID MONDAY
ACTIVE WEATHER. INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
AS RECENT RUNS ARE IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT OF INTRODUCING MORE FAR
INTERIOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. 31

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG...SOME DENSE...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT TRANSITIONS TO VFR TERRITORY GOING
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. REPEAT TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS &
PATCHY FOG. VISBYS MIGHT BE KEPT IN CHECK BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
BUT STILL ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SPEEDS & SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL PROBABLY NEED CAUTION/ADVSY
FLAGS BY SAT NIGHT. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  86  65  85  66 /  20  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  84  66  84  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  76  68  79  69 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...38




000
FXUS64 KEWX 231730 AAD
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1230 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH COULD TRIGGER A
FEW SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND A FEW
OF THESE MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CU
FIELD STARTING TO FORM ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS INCREASING
THE CU FIELD OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOME OF THIS CU WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AFTER 06S LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z-19Z. S/SE WINDS
10-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 02Z THEN WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF TO NEAR
10 KNOTS. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF TSRA IN THE KDRT FORECAST BUT
LEFT OUT OF THE OTHER TERMINALS DUE TO TIMING ISSUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AS FOG HAS DISSIPATED WITH
MIXING. REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35.
VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AND NEAR ZERO AT TIMES
WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 930 AM AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
MAY SEE BRIEF LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT WEST NEAR
DRT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY SOUTHEAST IN THE 5 TO 15 KT
RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MOISTURE RETURN FROM DEEP SOUTH TX WILL FILL IN THROUGH AROUND
6000 FT THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS AT
SEVERAL LEVELS. GOOD MIXING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO SIMILAR NUMBERS TO THAT OF
TUESDAY DESPITE THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN THE BREAKING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NRN MEXICO. THE
STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT STRONGER CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FINER RES MODELS TRACK THE
EVENING CELLS EASTWARD ALONG WITH A MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK MID
LEVEL ENERGY THAT IS IN PHASE WITH A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS THURSDAY...SO GOES THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DRIER AIR FILLING IN FROM
THE WEST...TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO GO UPWARD FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOL MOVES BACK DEEPER INLAND FRIDAY AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US INCREASES SURFACE
WINDS. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS ARE SLOWING THE
SYSTEM...SO FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO SHOW MORE EMPHASIS ON
SUNDAY. THE TRENDS ALSO ARE SHOWING GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL FROM
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A SHIFT TOWARD THE
COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEN AFTER A FRONT ARRIVES BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS...
AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  65  88  64  87 /  -   20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  64  88  63  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  64  89  65  88 /  -   20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  64  88  62  87 /  -   20  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  68  96  68  94 /  20  20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  65  87  63  86 /  -   20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  66  94  65  94 /  -   20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  64  88  64  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  65  86  65  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  65  90  66  90 /  -   20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  65  92  66  91 /  -   20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KSJT 231713
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1211 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions this afternoon and this evening across West Central
Texas, although gusty south winds will continue. We will likely see
a few thunderstorms develop around sunset across the area,
particularly near the KABI terminal. However, given the uncertainty
in coverage and timing, will not do anything other than mention a
VCTS for now. As storms develop, should be able to pin down the
timing better. Elsewhere, MVFR cigs may make a run into the
southeastern areas towards sunrise Thursday morning. Have included
cigs at Junction, Brady, and Sonora for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect mainly VFR conditions at the terminals during the next 24
hours. Low level southerly flow will prevail across West Central
Texas with surface wind gusts of 30 knots. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop along a dryline late this afternoon and
move east across the area this evening. The best coverage of storms
will be across the Big Country. Have gone with a VCTS at the KABI
terminal this evening. The confidence is not high enough to add
thunder for most of the terminals due to very sparse coverage
further south.

21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of West Central Texas
this afternoon and evening. Models still mix a dryline to our
western border late this afternoon. The NAM and GFS do generate QPF
over our counties; however, the GFS is more aggressive and develops
a convective line on the dryline at 06Z. The NAM really only
indicates a small QPF area over our north central counties between
03Z and 06Z; then, it`s gone. Plus, I did some quick analysis of
streamline fields aloft, for this time frame, and the best
diffluence is north of our area, near Wichita Falls between 00Z and
06Z. So, my confidence isn`t real high as to timing and location of
thunderstorms. Nevertheless, I agree with SPC; if thunderstorms
develop, some may be severe this afternoon and evening. The main
threats are large hail, damaging winds, and ever present deadly
lightning.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday Night)

I didn`t make any major chances to these periods. Another front
still looks likely for Thursday, with north surface winds dominating
all of West Central Texas during the afternoon. Return flow develops
quickly overnight Thursday night, and mainly south surface winds
will dominate on Friday. Cooler temperatures on Thursday will give
way to warmer temperatures by the start of next weekend, with highs
Saturday mainly in the 90 to 95 range.

Huber

(Saturday Night)

The best chance for severe thunderstorms for the long term
continues to center on next Saturday night. Models continue to
develop a surface dryline across our western border Saturday
afternoon and evening. Models push a well-developed upper low, and
its associated trough, into the southern Rockies Saturday afternoon.
Again, streamline analysis of winds fields aloft indicates much more
impressive diffluence aloft over West Central Texas beginning
Saturday afternoon and continuing until around midnight Saturday
night. Although it`s too early to assess the risks with high
certainty, model data currently supports possible tornadoes in
addition to large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning.

Huber

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Models continue to push another dry front across West Central Texas
Sunday afternoon. Cooler air behind the front will drop temperatures
for the start of the next work week.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  64  83  58  92 /  20  30   5   5   5
San Angelo  92  62  86  59  92 /  20  30   5   5   5
Junction  87  66  88  62  88 /  10  20  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KBRO 231711
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1211 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF IS INTERACTING
WITH DEEPENING LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MVFR TO VFR SKIES
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THICKER CLOUDS ARE CONCENTRATED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT
MFE. CIGS WILL DROP TO AROUND 2 KFT FOR ALL STATIONS TONIGHT...
MAYBE A FEW HUNDRED FEET LOWER AT MFE...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND MDT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS. AS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT...A DEEP STABLE LAYER WILL DEVELOP UNDERNEATH...
KEEPING CEILINGS LOWER...IN MVFR TERRITORY...FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MDT SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST...
BRINGING MOISTURE IN UNDER THE STABLE LAYER...BUT SCATTERED SKIES
MAY OPEN UP BRIEFLY THURSDAY AFTER DAWN BEFORE A THICKER CLOUD
DECK FORMS. BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE TOO GREAT FOR ANY OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT FOG TO FORM NEAR THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...1500 FT DECK HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH HAVE RECENTLY
BEGUN TO SPREAD SOUTH AND MAY REACH KMFE BEFORE MID MORNING.
LOWEST CLOUD DECKS WILL BREAK AFTER SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
QUICKLY MIXES TO THE SFC. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TODAY DUE TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL REACH AROUND
15KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH A LOWER INVERSION BOTTLING UP THE SFC
MOISTURE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...GENERALLY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT
KEEPS THINGS STABLE. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DECREASE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AS A LARGE TROUGH SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT TO THE REGION...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE...MID LEVEL CAPPING INCREASES...AND SFC FOCUSING MECHANISMS
ARE ABSENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...REACHING
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM... /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/ THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM A PROGRESSIVE WEST
TO EAST TRACK TO A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP
SHOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. BY EARLY TO THE MID WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE...BUT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS. A GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINS WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING INTO BREEZY AND HOT WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND. WINDS TO TAPPER OFF MONDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AS A DRY LINE SETS UP TO THE WEST. THEN A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG TROUGH LOWERING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR A DAY OR TWO. NO RAIN IS SEEN AT
THIS TIME AS MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS WELL NORTH OF TEXAS. DISSIPATING
FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HAVE NO AFFECT ON AREA WEATHER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UPPER TROUGH DIVES SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND TRACKS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. EXPECTING S-SW FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
IN TURN PUSHES TEMPERATURES UPWARD. BREEZY AFTERNOONS WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE PUSHING MAXIMUMS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOWER 100S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND UPPER 80S TO MID 90S MID AND
LOWER VALLEY.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BROAD UPPER TROUGH/LOW BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER
MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF
BUT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF 70-80 DECAMETERS DEEPER...HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CWA ARE VIRTUALLY THE SAME. GENERAL TRENDS
IS FOR 850-700MB SW-W FLOW TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY. A SURFACE DRY
LINE TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE COUNTIES WITH TEMPERATURES
TO INCREASE POSSIBLY TO THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE SPRING. DEW
POINTS LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
SURFACE WINDS HOWEVER LOOK LIGHT REDUCING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
AS WILL HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESS LOWER ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NORMAL
TUESDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN NEARLY FLAT THIS
MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAVE KEPT INFLUENTIAL SFC WINDS
NEARLY CALM. SFC LOW PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS...APPROACHING 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY AFFECT SEAS...BUT
SHOULD STAY BELOW 4 FEET TOMORROW.

THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. STRONG UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASING NEXT WEEKEND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY AS MODELS INDICATE WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILDING WITH THE TIGHTER GRADIENT. SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND NO FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/58






000
FXUS64 KAMA 231657
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1157 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING DUST. KAMA
AND KDHT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO BLOWING DUST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND
AWW CRITERIA AT KAMA THROUGH 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN WELL
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE. MODELS DID HINT AT LOW CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS TOMORROW
MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TO LOW TO INSERT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK SUMMARY...
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST ON TRACK.
TIMING: NOON-9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE

INITIAL VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF NM/CO THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MORNING
CLOUDS AND HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WITH ROUGHLY 1200 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THIS LOW LEVEL DRYNESS HAS LED TO A FEW GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. AS THE VORT MAX PASSES OVERHEAD IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
THESE SHOWERS TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO CAUSE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF INACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY WHILE UNDER THE EFFECT OF NEG VORT ADVECTION. THIS
WILL ALLOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND WE WILL WARM QUICKLY.
DURING THIS SAME TIME A DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY BE CONGEALING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING EAST. BY NOON THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.

A SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE UTAH/ARIZONA WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS, AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. THE
LACK OF TURNING OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES (3500-6000FT) WILL LIMIT THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST (MAINLY EXTREME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES). DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE RISE (40-50KT 0-6KM) WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISCRETE
STORMS TRANSITIONING TO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. MODELS DO HINT
AT A BULGE IN THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS TYPE OF FEATURE, SHOULD IT DEVELOP, COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
TURNING OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE
THE RISK OF A TORNADO. A POSSIBLE OFF-SETTING FACTOR IS THAT CLOUDS
BASES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH, BUT THIS CERTAINLY WON`T RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL END BY 9 PM AS THE VARIOUS FACTORS
BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 231657
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1157 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING DUST. KAMA
AND KDHT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO BLOWING DUST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND
AWW CRITERIA AT KAMA THROUGH 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN WELL
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE. MODELS DID HINT AT LOW CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS TOMORROW
MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TO LOW TO INSERT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK SUMMARY...
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST ON TRACK.
TIMING: NOON-9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE

INITIAL VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF NM/CO THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MORNING
CLOUDS AND HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WITH ROUGHLY 1200 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THIS LOW LEVEL DRYNESS HAS LED TO A FEW GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. AS THE VORT MAX PASSES OVERHEAD IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
THESE SHOWERS TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO CAUSE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF INACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY WHILE UNDER THE EFFECT OF NEG VORT ADVECTION. THIS
WILL ALLOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND WE WILL WARM QUICKLY.
DURING THIS SAME TIME A DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY BE CONGEALING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING EAST. BY NOON THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.

A SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE UTAH/ARIZONA WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS, AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. THE
LACK OF TURNING OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES (3500-6000FT) WILL LIMIT THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST (MAINLY EXTREME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES). DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE RISE (40-50KT 0-6KM) WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISCRETE
STORMS TRANSITIONING TO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. MODELS DO HINT
AT A BULGE IN THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS TYPE OF FEATURE, SHOULD IT DEVELOP, COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
TURNING OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE
THE RISK OF A TORNADO. A POSSIBLE OFF-SETTING FACTOR IS THAT CLOUDS
BASES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH, BUT THIS CERTAINLY WON`T RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL END BY 9 PM AS THE VARIOUS FACTORS
BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 231657
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1157 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING DUST. KAMA
AND KDHT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO BLOWING DUST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND
AWW CRITERIA AT KAMA THROUGH 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN WELL
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE. MODELS DID HINT AT LOW CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS TOMORROW
MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TO LOW TO INSERT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK SUMMARY...
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST ON TRACK.
TIMING: NOON-9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE

INITIAL VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF NM/CO THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MORNING
CLOUDS AND HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WITH ROUGHLY 1200 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THIS LOW LEVEL DRYNESS HAS LED TO A FEW GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. AS THE VORT MAX PASSES OVERHEAD IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
THESE SHOWERS TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO CAUSE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF INACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY WHILE UNDER THE EFFECT OF NEG VORT ADVECTION. THIS
WILL ALLOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND WE WILL WARM QUICKLY.
DURING THIS SAME TIME A DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY BE CONGEALING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING EAST. BY NOON THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.

A SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE UTAH/ARIZONA WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS, AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. THE
LACK OF TURNING OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES (3500-6000FT) WILL LIMIT THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST (MAINLY EXTREME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES). DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE RISE (40-50KT 0-6KM) WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISCRETE
STORMS TRANSITIONING TO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. MODELS DO HINT
AT A BULGE IN THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS TYPE OF FEATURE, SHOULD IT DEVELOP, COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
TURNING OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE
THE RISK OF A TORNADO. A POSSIBLE OFF-SETTING FACTOR IS THAT CLOUDS
BASES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH, BUT THIS CERTAINLY WON`T RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL END BY 9 PM AS THE VARIOUS FACTORS
BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/05







000
FXUS64 KAMA 231657
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1157 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING DUST. KAMA
AND KDHT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO BLOWING DUST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND
AWW CRITERIA AT KAMA THROUGH 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN WELL
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS.
THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF
ISSUANCE. MODELS DID HINT AT LOW CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS TOMORROW
MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TO LOW TO INSERT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK SUMMARY...
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST ON TRACK.
TIMING: NOON-9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE

INITIAL VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF NM/CO THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MORNING
CLOUDS AND HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WITH ROUGHLY 1200 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THIS LOW LEVEL DRYNESS HAS LED TO A FEW GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. AS THE VORT MAX PASSES OVERHEAD IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
THESE SHOWERS TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO CAUSE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF INACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY WHILE UNDER THE EFFECT OF NEG VORT ADVECTION. THIS
WILL ALLOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND WE WILL WARM QUICKLY.
DURING THIS SAME TIME A DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY BE CONGEALING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING EAST. BY NOON THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.

A SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE UTAH/ARIZONA WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS, AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. THE
LACK OF TURNING OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES (3500-6000FT) WILL LIMIT THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST (MAINLY EXTREME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES). DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE RISE (40-50KT 0-6KM) WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISCRETE
STORMS TRANSITIONING TO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. MODELS DO HINT
AT A BULGE IN THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS TYPE OF FEATURE, SHOULD IT DEVELOP, COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
TURNING OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE
THE RISK OF A TORNADO. A POSSIBLE OFF-SETTING FACTOR IS THAT CLOUDS
BASES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH, BUT THIS CERTAINLY WON`T RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL END BY 9 PM AS THE VARIOUS FACTORS
BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/05







000
FXUS64 KLUB 231645
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014


.UPDATE...
A FEW COMPLICATING FACTORS IN THE FCST THIS MORNING THOUGH THE
GENERAL THINKING REMAINS INTACT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...WHICH WAS SOMEWHAT MORE PREVALENT THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...HAS SLOWED THE INITIAL MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE WHICH
REMAINS WELL INTO NEW MEXICO AS OF 16Z. THAT SAID...PRESSURE FALLS
HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH SHARPLY VEERING SURFACE WINDS AT RUIDOSO AND
ALAMOGORDO. STILL EXPECT THE THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE TO RAPIDLY MIX
OUT AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE MADE IT TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. THE DRYLINE SHOULD RACE
QUICKLY TO NEAR THE I27 CORRIDOR BY 1PM WITH INITIATION MOST
LIKELY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MUCH OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF THINNING OF
THE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. GIVEN THE DYNAMICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE WARMING...THE CLOUD CONVEYOR SHOULD THIN RAPIDLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND PROMOTE CLEARING. THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WHILE ALLOWING THE DRYLINE TO TIGHTEN
THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND WINDS BEING THE DOMINANT THREAT. FOR NOW...WE WILL
ADVERTISE GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH PLUS MAINLY EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT. SOME TRAINING WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THOUGH THE RISK IS TOO
CONDITIONAL TO MENTION ATTM. FINALLY...AND ISOLATE TORNADO THREAT
MAY EXIST UP INVOF KCDS AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRIES
TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A TORNADO APPEARS RATHER LOW.

OUT WEST...FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST BEHIND THE
DRYLINE.

BOTTOM LINE...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN TODAY/S SYSTEM. WATCH
WHERE THE DRYLINE MAKES IT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ROLLING
PLAINS/SERN PANHANDLE STILL HAS THE GREATEST RISK OF DAMAGING
SEVERE.


&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TSTM ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS. GREATEST TSTM RISK APPEARS TO BE JUST
EAST OF KLBB ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO BEGIN ITS
EASTWARD MOVEMENT DUE IN PART TO EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS. THAT
SAID...SUBSTANTIVE PROGRESS SHOULD BE REALIZED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE DRYLINE APPROACHING KLBB BY AROUND 18Z.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SHARPENING DRYLINE LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM IDAHO TO
ARIZONA TO MOVE EWD TO THE ERN EXTENT OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE DAY. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW BUT ALSO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TO RESULT IN A DRYLINE THAT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED THROUGH
THE DAY THEN MOVE EWD TO AROUND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY LATE AFTN.
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
A CONVECTIVE PRECIP SIGNAL MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NRN ROLLING PLAINS EWD INTO WRN OKLAHOMA AND NW TEXAS...ALTHOUGH
MAYBE NOT AS ROBUST A SIGNAL AS SEEN PREVIOUSLY. SOME CONCERNS ARE
QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /MUST GET AS FOR SOUTH AS SAN
ANTONIO AND COLLEGE STATION BEFORE FINDING A 60F DEW POINT AS OF
08Z/...POSSIBLE LIMITATIONS DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS
AND LAPSE RATES /MARGINAL EFFECT EXPECTED/...AND STRENGTH OF THE
CAP. AS FOR MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE MID 50S MOVE INTO THE ERN ZONES
ALTHOUGH REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. STILL THAT TYPE OF MOISTURE IS
FAR FROM DISCOUNTING PRECIP. BEST PUSH TO THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
BE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH UPPER SUPPORT ALSO
FOCUSING ON THAT DIRECTION. THIS AREA MOST LIKELY TO BREAK THE CAP
WITH AREA FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS POSSIBLY
STAYING CAPPED UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
JET WOULD INCREASE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION POTENTIALLY
HELPING ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH THERE FOR SOME PRECIP TO BUILD SWD PER
THE WRF-NAM SOLUTION. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT PREVIOUS POP FCST LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...SHIFTING WRN EDGE OF
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE EAST WITH THE DRYLINE AND LOWERING AFTN POPS
ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE STRONGER CAP EXPECTED.

SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN AS MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
EXPECTED WITH BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY AS THE
EVENT GOES ON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING SHEAR. STORMS
LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED TO BEGIN WITH WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT AND TORNADO POTENTIAL LIMITED BY HIGH LCL AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS LIKELY BACKED CLOSER TO SOUTH THAN EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE TOWARD 06Z WILL SHIFT CHANCES TO THE EAST
OF THE FCST AREA.

PREVIOUS TEMP FCST LOOKS FINE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT TOWARD 00Z MOS.
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...
AGAIN IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL SEE WINDS COME AROUND FROM THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...
THE ONLY CHALLENGING WEATHER IN THIS LONG TERM WINDOW FROM THURSDAY
THRU TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD THE WEEKEND AS A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW
ENTERS THE PICTURE. BEFORE THEN...SHALLOW RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE
FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY FRIDAY BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE. AS SOON AS FRI NIGHT...A
DRYLINE COULD ALREADY BE BISECTING THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. GRADUAL
BACKING OF WINDS ALOFT ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THIS DRYLINE NOT MIXING TOO FAR EAST DURING
THE DAY...SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE CAPROCK
DURING THE AFTN AND OVERNIGHT.

PRESSURE FALLS STILL TO OUR WEST BY SAT EVNG MAY INDEED PULL THE
DRYLINE MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS INDICATE. IT/S NOT UNCOMMON
TO SEE MODELS SERIOUSLY UNDERESTIMATE THE WWD EXTENT OF
RETROGRADING DRYLINES IN THESE SETUPS...BUT IT/S STILL TOO SOON TO
EXPAND PRECIP MENTION ONTO THE CAPROCK FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
NONETHELESS...THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A QUICK-MOVING
PACIFIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE SOUTH PLAINS SAT NIGHT...SO THE
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WILL PROVE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW FAR
WEST POPS ARE NECESSARY. FOR THOSE WHO REMEMBER SATURDAY NIGHT
4/14/2012...A PACIFIC FRONT AND DRYLINE COLLISION WAS REALIZED
MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS PROGGED WHICH CAUGHT MANY FORECASTERS
BY SURPRISE. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN PLACE THIS TIME AROUND...SO
WE CANNOT ENTIRELY IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN WHILE
HOOKING NEWD ACROSS SERN CO AND SWRN KS. THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY A
TEXTBOOK PATTERN FOR CLASSIC SOUTH PLAINS DUST EVENTS...SO WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP CONSIDERABLY SUN AFTN ALONG WITH BLOWING
DUST MENTION. HIGH WINDS MAY SPARE THE REGION AS THE 500MB AND 700MB
WIND MAXIMA DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST ATTM. FIRE WEATHER
MAY ALSO FAIL TO EMERGE AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MUCH COOLER BEHIND
THE PACIFIC FRONT...THOUGH WE/VE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE TEMPS PROVE
MUCH WARMER THAN PROGGED. WE DID COOL SUNDAY/S HIGHS A TOUCH...
BUT ARE STILL RESIDING ABOVE MEX AND ECM MOS. COOL AND DRY NW FLOW
THEN SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWS AND FILLS TO
OUR NORTHEAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL SADLY BE SWEPT BACK TO ITS
ORIGIN IN THIS PATTERN...SO MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A SCARCE COMMODITY.

FIRE WEATHER...
LOW END RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS REASONABLE WRN TWO COLUMNS OF
COUNTIES. WINDS WEST OF THE DRYLINE TO INCREASE TOWARD 25 MPH AT THE
20-FOOT LEVEL WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 PCT. SOME QUESTION HOW
LONG THAT COMBINATION WILL LAST ACROSS THIS AREA BUT NEAR 3 HOURS IF
NOT EXCEEDING THAT DURATION SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED WARNING AND UPGRADE THE WATCH AREA TO A WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  44  75  44  86 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  46  76  47  87 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     87  48  77  49  89 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     88  47  79  52  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  50  79  53  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   88  50  77  53  89 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    89  49  79  54  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  56  79  49  89 /  50  40   0   0   0
SPUR          87  53  80  53  92 /  30  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  59  80  53  94 /  30  30   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

26/99/26






000
FXUS64 KHGX 231545
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1045 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014


.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA SUPPORTING A DECK OF BKN/SCT
CLOUDS AFTER THE DENSE FOG DISSIPATED EARLIER THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THEN SCATTER OUT AREAWIDE
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTH. SHOULD
BE A PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TONIGHT AND MAY SEE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWER CIGS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT AS WELL. UPDATED ZFP OUT SHORTLY FOR CURRENT
WINDS AND SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TODAY
WITHOUT ANY DIFFICULTY IN A DEEP WELL MIXED BL UP THROUGH 4.5-5.5KFT.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR RADIATIVE FOG FORMATION SINCE MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTY DENSE FOG PRIMARILY WEST OF I-45 AND SOUTH OF I-10
HAS LOWERED VISIBILITIES TO A 1/4 MILE OR LESS. ONCE THE FOG
BREAKS...THE FORECAST IS FOR ANOTHER WARM AND PARTIALLY CLOUDY
DAY. A MORE MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND DAY THAT WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES
ON THE UP AND UP...MAKING THIS AFTERNOON FEEL A BIT MORE OF WHAT
WE`RE USED TO AROUND HERE IN LATE APRIL...WARM AND A TOUCH MORE
MUGGY.

HIGHER LOWER LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL BE MORE REALIZED IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE RETURN OF DENSE RADIATIVE FOG. THE THREAT FOR THURSDAY
MORNING FOG WILL BE MINIMIZED BY A STRONGER ONSHORE WIND AS LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE KEEP THE ONSHORE GRADIENT JUST TIGHT
ENOUGH IN GENERATING A 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WIND. THIS SURFACE
BREEZE...AND A MODELED 95H 25-30 KT OFF-THE-SURFACE WIND FIELD...
SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG
RETURNS FRIDAY MORNING AS MID-LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN. RESIDENT
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINT AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THUR NITE/FRI
MORN WITH A WEAKENED WIND FIELD FROM A PASSING SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SET THE SCENE FOR A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT. THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELL OR TWO BRUSHING THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERN CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SPC HAS DAY 2 OUTLOOKED IN GENERAL
TO COMMUNICATE THIS SLIGHT STORM THREAT. GENERAL MENTION AS ANY
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DOING SO
WITHIN A VERY WARM AND HUMID (UN-CAPPED) LATE DAY AIR MASS.

THE ENSEMBLE IS STILL MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF AN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST 5H TROUGH WHOSE AXIS WILL BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG A POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEADING A MAIN COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL DEPENDENT
UPON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT/SHARPNESS OF 5H TROUGH AXIS AS TO
WHETHER REGION WILL EXPERIENCE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY-MID MONDAY
ACTIVE WEATHER. INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
AS RECENT RUNS ARE IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT OF INTRODUCING MORE FAR
INTERIOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. 31

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG...SOME DENSE...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT TRANSITIONS TO VFR TERRITORY GOING
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. REPEAT TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS &
PATCHY FOG. VISBYS MIGHT BE KEPT IN CHECK BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
BUT STILL ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SPEEDS & SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL PROBABLY NEED CAUTION/ADVSY
FLAGS BY SAT NIGHT. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  65  86  65  85 /  10  20  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  65  84  66  84 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  68  76  68  79 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




000
FXUS64 KEWX 231541
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1041 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AS FOG HAS DISSIPATED WITH
MIXING. REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35.
VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AND NEAR ZERO AT TIMES
WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 930 AM AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
MAY SEE BRIEF LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT WEST NEAR
DRT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY SOUTHEAST IN THE 5 TO 15 KT
RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MOISTURE RETURN FROM DEEP SOUTH TX WILL FILL IN THROUGH AROUND
6000 FT THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS AT
SEVERAL LEVELS. GOOD MIXING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO SIMILAR NUMBERS TO THAT OF
TUESDAY DESPITE THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN THE BREAKING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NRN MEXICO. THE
STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT STRONGER CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FINER RES MODELS TRACK THE
EVENING CELLS EASTWARD ALONG WITH A MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK MID
LEVEL ENERGY THAT IS IN PHASE WITH A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS THURSDAY...SO GOES THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DRIER AIR FILLING IN FROM
THE WEST...TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO GO UPWARD FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOL MOVES BACK DEEPER INLAND FRIDAY AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US INCREASES SURFACE
WINDS. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS ARE SLOWING THE
SYSTEM...SO FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO SHOW MORE EMPHASIS ON
SUNDAY. THE TRENDS ALSO ARE SHOWING GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL FROM
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A SHIFT TOWARD THE
COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEN AFTER A FRONT ARRIVES BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS...
AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  65  88  64  87 /  -   20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  64  88  63  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  64  89  65  88 /  -   20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  64  88  62  87 /  -   20  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  68  96  68  94 /  20  20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  65  87  63  86 /  -   20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  66  94  65  94 /  -   20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  64  88  64  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  65  86  65  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  65  90  66  90 /  -   20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  65  92  66  91 /  -   20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







000
FXUS64 KAMA 231458
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
958 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK SUMMARY...
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST ON TRACK.
TIMING: NOON-9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE

INITIAL VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF NM/CO THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MORNING
CLOUDS AND HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WITH ROUGHLY 1200 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THIS LOW LEVEL DRYNESS HAS LED TO A FEW GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. AS THE VORT MAX PASSES OVERHEAD IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
THESE SHOWERS TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO CAUSE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF INACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY WHILE UNDER THE EFFECT OF NEG VORT ADVECTION. THIS
WILL ALLOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND WE WILL WARM QUICKLY.
DURING THIS SAME TIME A DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY BE CONGEALING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING EAST. BY NOON THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.

A SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE UTAH/ARIZONA WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS, AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. THE
LACK OF TURNING OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES (3500-6000FT) WILL LIMIT THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST (MAINLY EXTREME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES). DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE RISE (40-50KT 0-6KM) WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISCRETE
STORMS TRANSITIONING TO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. MODELS DO HINT
AT A BULGE IN THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS TYPE OF FEATURE, SHOULD IT DEVELOP, COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
TURNING OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE
THE RISK OF A TORNADO. A POSSIBLE OFF-SETTING FACTOR IS THAT CLOUDS
BASES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH, BUT THIS CERTAINLY WON`T RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL END BY 9 PM AS THE VARIOUS FACTORS
BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/05





000
FXUS64 KAMA 231458
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
958 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK SUMMARY...
SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST ON TRACK.
TIMING: NOON-9PM
HAZARDS: HAIL UP TO BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, AND LOW
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADO
AREA: EAST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE

INITIAL VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF NM/CO THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT MORNING
CLOUDS AND HELPED TO SPARK ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WITH ROUGHLY 1200 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THIS LOW LEVEL DRYNESS HAS LED TO A FEW GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH. AS THE VORT MAX PASSES OVERHEAD IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
THESE SHOWERS TO TAP INTO SOME OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO CAUSE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF INACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY WHILE UNDER THE EFFECT OF NEG VORT ADVECTION. THIS
WILL ALLOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND WE WILL WARM QUICKLY.
DURING THIS SAME TIME A DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY BE CONGEALING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING EAST. BY NOON THE DRYLINE
SHOULD BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.

A SECONDARY VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE UTAH/ARIZONA WILL BE OUR
UPPER LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WITH 30-40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS, AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. THE
LACK OF TURNING OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES (3500-6000FT) WILL LIMIT THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT
FURTHER EAST (MAINLY EXTREME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES). DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE RISE (40-50KT 0-6KM) WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISCRETE
STORMS TRANSITIONING TO A CLUSTER/LINEAR STRUCTURE. MODELS DO HINT
AT A BULGE IN THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS TYPE OF FEATURE, SHOULD IT DEVELOP, COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
TURNING OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE
THE RISK OF A TORNADO. A POSSIBLE OFF-SETTING FACTOR IS THAT CLOUDS
BASES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH, BUT THIS CERTAINLY WON`T RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE.

SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL END BY 9 PM AS THE VARIOUS FACTORS
BECOME OUT OF PHASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/05






000
FXUS64 KCRP 231449 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
949 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...FOG HAS LIFTED BUT STRATUS LINGERING A LITTLE WHILE
LONGER THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS. OTHER THAN SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURE TREND...NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...AM EXPECTING CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AOA 15Z ALL BUT KVCT
WHERE CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR NO LATER THAN 17Z. SSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS...DIMINISHING FROM
EAST TO WEST DURING THE EVENING. AM EXPECTING CIGS BELOW VFR BY
06Z EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED BEFORE THE END OF
THE TERMINAL FORECAST. WITH LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM BUT SHOULD SEE THE IFR CIGS. AT KLRD...WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS GOING AFTER 23/15Z AND KEEP THIS GOING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST. THINK CONVECTION NEAR RIO
GRANDE TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF KLRD SO NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          86  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            96  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 231449 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
949 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...FOG HAS LIFTED BUT STRATUS LINGERING A LITTLE WHILE
LONGER THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS. OTHER THAN SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURE TREND...NO MAJOR CHANGES
MADE FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...AM EXPECTING CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AOA 15Z ALL BUT KVCT
WHERE CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR NO LATER THAN 17Z. SSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS...DIMINISHING FROM
EAST TO WEST DURING THE EVENING. AM EXPECTING CIGS BELOW VFR BY
06Z EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED BEFORE THE END OF
THE TERMINAL FORECAST. WITH LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM BUT SHOULD SEE THE IFR CIGS. AT KLRD...WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS GOING AFTER 23/15Z AND KEEP THIS GOING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST. THINK CONVECTION NEAR RIO
GRANDE TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF KLRD SO NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          86  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            96  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KEWX 231339
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
839 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35.
VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE AND NEAR ZERO AT TIMES
WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 930 AM AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 10 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
MAY SEE BRIEF LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT WEST NEAR
DRT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY SOUTHEAST IN THE 5 TO 15 KT
RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MOISTURE RETURN FROM DEEP SOUTH TX WILL FILL IN THROUGH AROUND
6000 FT THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS AT
SEVERAL LEVELS. GOOD MIXING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO SIMILAR NUMBERS TO THAT OF
TUESDAY DESPITE THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN THE BREAKING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NRN MEXICO. THE
STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT STRONGER CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FINER RES MODELS TRACK THE
EVENING CELLS EASTWARD ALONG WITH A MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK MID
LEVEL ENERGY THAT IS IN PHASE WITH A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS THURSDAY...SO GOES THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DRIER AIR FILLING IN FROM
THE WEST...TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO GO UPWARD FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOL MOVES BACK DEEPER INLAND FRIDAY AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US INCREASES SURFACE
WINDS. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS ARE SLOWING THE
SYSTEM...SO FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO SHOW MORE EMPHASIS ON
SUNDAY. THE TRENDS ALSO ARE SHOWING GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL FROM
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A SHIFT TOWARD THE
COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEN AFTER A FRONT ARRIVES BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS...
AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  65  88  64  87 /  -   20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  64  88  63  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  64  89  65  88 /  -   20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  64  88  62  87 /  -   20  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  68  96  68  94 /  20  20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  65  87  63  86 /  -   20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  66  94  65  94 /  -   20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  64  88  64  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  65  86  65  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  65  90  66  90 /  -   20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  65  92  66  91 /  -   20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BASTROP...CALDWELL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...
KARNES...LAVACA...LEE...WILSON.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






000
FXUS64 KFWD 231209 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH AT DAYBREAK WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS BY 16Z AS LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO DEEPENS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG THE DRY LINE. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD WEAKEN BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAF SITES
BY 08Z. AROUND THAT SAME TIME SOME MVFR STRATUS WILL ALSO SPREAD
IN FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THE 08-12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST 14-15Z... THEN
AROUND TO THE WEST BY 18Z THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 19-21Z THURSDAY.


58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/
OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY WITH UPPER
HEIGHT FALLS FORECASTED TO COMMENCE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP WELL
WEST OF THE CWA AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LIKELY GIVEN THE UPPER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS. STORM MOTIONS TODAY SHOULD
BE IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AND ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
COULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
FORECASTED TO BE MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...INCREASING CIN THIS
EVENING WILL LIMIT THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED STORMS INTO
THE CWA...BUT ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING BEFORE STORMS SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE
MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE TONIGHT WILL BE ELEVATED STORMS...ROOTED
AROUND 10KFT. WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING INCREASING MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. SEVERAL FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING QPF OVERNIGHT AND THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY
CAUSE. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR 7.5C/KM AND CANT RULE
OUT AN ELEVATED SEVERE STORM WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL. THE MID-
LEVELS WILL DRY AFTER 12Z...ENDING PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED GIVEN LITTLE FORCING. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN CAPE VALUES NEAR 3500 J/KG. TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S...VERSUS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S EXPECTED TODAY.

A SHORT DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY. THIS NEXT
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO...BUT
THE CURRENT FORECASTED TRACK OF THE CENTER WILL BE WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. STORMS WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE DRYLINE ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BE IN WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER...ELEVATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...LIMITING
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY SUNDAY...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE EAST AND THIS IS OUR
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE PUSHING
THE DRYLINE A LITTLE TOO QUICK. AT 12Z SUNDAY ITS FORECASTED
POSITION IS NEAR ABILENE AND BY 18Z IT IS FORECASTING THE DRYLINE
TO BE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS IS A COMMON PROBLEM WITH ITS
FORECASTS OF DRYLINES AND WILL HOLD ONTO POPS A BIT FARTHER WEST
THAN WHAT IT IS FORECASTING. TO COMPARE...THE ECMWF HAS THE DRYLINE
ALONG I-35 AND THE CANADIAN POSITIONS IT WEST OF I-35 AT 18Z
SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ELIMINATION OF THE CAP BY MID-
DAY SUNDAY. CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION FOR STORMS
THAT DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE MONDAY MORNING AND COOLER
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS AN OMEGA
BLOCK WHICH ALLOWS THE UPPER LOW TO STALL AND DEEPEN EAST OF
TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTH FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

HAMPSHIRE

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  67  83  60  87 /   0  30  10   0   0
WACO, TX              86  65  82  61  86 /   0  20  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             82  63  78  55  82 /   0  20  20   5   5
DENTON, TX            86  67  82  53  85 /   0  30  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          85  69  81  51  85 /   0  30  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            87  67  82  61  86 /   0  20  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           85  66  81  57  85 /   0  20  20   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         85  66  83  62  84 /   0  20  20   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            85  65  84  62  86 /   0  20  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  64  83  54  87 /   0  30  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/85








000
FXUS64 KEWX 231152 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
652 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
MAY SEE BRIEF LIGHT FOG AND MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT WEST NEAR
DRT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS REMAININ GENERALLY SOUTHEAST IN THE 5 TO 15 KT
RANGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MOISTURE RETURN FROM DEEP SOUTH TX WILL FILL IN THROUGH AROUND
6000 FT THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS AT
SEVERAL LEVELS. GOOD MIXING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO SIMILAR NUMBERS TO THAT OF
TUESDAY DESPITE THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN THE BREAKING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NRN MEXICO. THE
STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT STRONGER CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FINER RES MODELS TRACK THE
EVENING CELLS EASTWARD ALONG WITH A MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK MID
LEVEL ENERGY THAT IS IN PHASE WITH A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS THURSDAY...SO GOES THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DRIER AIR FILLING IN FROM
THE WEST...TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO GO UPWARD FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOL MOVES BACK DEEPER INLAND FRIDAY AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US INCREASES SURFACE
WINDS. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS ARE SLOWING THE
SYSTEM...SO FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO SHOW MORE EMPHASIS ON
SUNDAY. THE TRENDS ALSO ARE SHOWING GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL FROM
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A SHIFT TOWARD THE
COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEN AFTER A FRONT ARRIVES BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS...
AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  65  88  64  87 /  -   20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  64  88  63  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  64  89  65  88 /  -   20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  64  88  62  87 /  -   20  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  68  96  68  94 /  20  20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  65  87  63  86 /  -   20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  66  94  65  94 /  -   20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  64  88  64  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  65  86  65  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  65  90  66  90 /  -   20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  65  92  66  91 /  -   20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18






000
FXUS64 KCRP 231136 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
636 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AM EXPECTING CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AOA 15Z ALL BUT KVCT
WHERE CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR NO LATER THAN 17Z. SSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS...DIMINISHING FROM
EAST TO WEST DURING THE EVENING. AM EXPECTING CIGS BELOW VFR BY
06Z EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED BEFORE THE END OF
THE TERMINAL FORECAST. WITH LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM BUT SHOULD SEE THE IFR CIGS. AT KLRD...WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS GOING AFTER 23/15Z AND KEEP THIS GOING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST. THINK CONVECTION NEAR RIO
GRANDE TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF KLRD SO NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AS VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4
MILE AND SHOULD STAY TIL ABOUT 9 AM. FARTHER SOUTH...THINK
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR DENSE FOG.
PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST
THURSDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH A
WEAK JET STREAK COULD HAVE CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE RIVER
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT BEFORE STRONG CAP WEAKENS AND ENDS ACTIVITY. JET
MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AND COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN-MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. STILL WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA AREA
THURSDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...LOOKS TO BE WARM AND
HUMID...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. AM GENERALLY GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCEC FOR
SOUTHERN BAYS AND TONIGHT OVER THE GULFMEX AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE WATERS. FLOW WEAKENS ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS MOISTURE
AXIS STAYS INLAND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...RATHER ZONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MINOR H5 VORT MAXES
ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS PROG TO
STALL ACROSS EWX CWA THURS NIGHT WITH ISO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION
/SLIGHT CHANCE AT THAT/ WILL OCCUR SAT EVENING ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AS SLIGHTLY MORE POTENT H5 VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AS 85KT H25 JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE AREA. ATTM CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ
DEVELOPS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DROP BACK TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LACK OF FORCING AND DRYING
OF ATMOSPHERE OCCURS. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH A THERMAL
TROUGH/QUASIDRYLINE EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS. HAVE GONE WELL
ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CLOSE TO ECX
GUIDANCE. A DRY COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR
OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE /PWATS LOWERING TO AROUND 1/2 INCH/. VERY WARM
TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY/WED GIVEN STRONG SUN
ANGLE...DRY AIRMASS...AND VERY WARM H9 TEMPS. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND
OF GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR TUES/WED DUE SURROUNDING CWA
CONSISTENCY...BUT MAY NEED TO WARM TEMPS SOME IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            95  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KCRP 231136 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
636 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AM EXPECTING CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AOA 15Z ALL BUT KVCT
WHERE CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR NO LATER THAN 17Z. SSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS...DIMINISHING FROM
EAST TO WEST DURING THE EVENING. AM EXPECTING CIGS BELOW VFR BY
06Z EASTERN TERMINALS...WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED BEFORE THE END OF
THE TERMINAL FORECAST. WITH LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD
NOT BE A PROBLEM BUT SHOULD SEE THE IFR CIGS. AT KLRD...WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS GOING AFTER 23/15Z AND KEEP THIS GOING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST. THINK CONVECTION NEAR RIO
GRANDE TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF KLRD SO NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AS VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4
MILE AND SHOULD STAY TIL ABOUT 9 AM. FARTHER SOUTH...THINK
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR DENSE FOG.
PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST
THURSDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH A
WEAK JET STREAK COULD HAVE CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE RIVER
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT BEFORE STRONG CAP WEAKENS AND ENDS ACTIVITY. JET
MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AND COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN-MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. STILL WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA AREA
THURSDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...LOOKS TO BE WARM AND
HUMID...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. AM GENERALLY GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCEC FOR
SOUTHERN BAYS AND TONIGHT OVER THE GULFMEX AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE WATERS. FLOW WEAKENS ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS MOISTURE
AXIS STAYS INLAND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...RATHER ZONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MINOR H5 VORT MAXES
ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS PROG TO
STALL ACROSS EWX CWA THURS NIGHT WITH ISO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION
/SLIGHT CHANCE AT THAT/ WILL OCCUR SAT EVENING ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AS SLIGHTLY MORE POTENT H5 VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AS 85KT H25 JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE AREA. ATTM CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ
DEVELOPS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DROP BACK TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LACK OF FORCING AND DRYING
OF ATMOSPHERE OCCURS. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH A THERMAL
TROUGH/QUASIDRYLINE EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS. HAVE GONE WELL
ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CLOSE TO ECX
GUIDANCE. A DRY COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR
OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE /PWATS LOWERING TO AROUND 1/2 INCH/. VERY WARM
TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY/WED GIVEN STRONG SUN
ANGLE...DRY AIRMASS...AND VERY WARM H9 TEMPS. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND
OF GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR TUES/WED DUE SURROUNDING CWA
CONSISTENCY...BUT MAY NEED TO WARM TEMPS SOME IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            95  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KLUB 231130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
DRYLINE TO SHIFT TO A POSITION BTWN KLBB AND KCDS THIS AFTN. EAST
OF IT...PARTICULARLY ERN PANHANDLE...WILL BE CHANCE FOR TSRA
WORTHY OF A PROB30 AT KCDS ATTM. WEST OF THE DRYLINE WINDS WILL
VEER TO SW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20G30KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SHARPENING DRYLINE LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM IDAHO TO
ARIZONA TO MOVE EWD TO THE ERN EXTENT OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE DAY. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW BUT ALSO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TO RESULT IN A DRYLINE THAT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED THROUGH
THE DAY THEN MOVE EWD TO AROUND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY LATE AFTN.
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
A CONVECTIVE PRECIP SIGNAL MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NRN ROLLING PLAINS EWD INTO WRN OKLAHOMA AND NW TEXAS...ALTHOUGH
MAYBE NOT AS ROBUST A SIGNAL AS SEEN PREVIOUSLY. SOME CONCERNS ARE
QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /MUST GET AS FOR SOUTH AS SAN
ANTONIO AND COLLEGE STATION BEFORE FINDING A 60F DEW POINT AS OF
08Z/...POSSIBLE LIMITATIONS DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS
AND LAPSE RATES /MARGINAL EFFECT EXPECTED/...AND STRENGTH OF THE
CAP. AS FOR MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE MID 50S MOVE INTO THE ERN ZONES
ALTHOUGH REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. STILL THAT TYPE OF MOISTURE IS
FAR FROM DISCOUNTING PRECIP. BEST PUSH TO THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
BE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH UPPER SUPPORT ALSO
FOCUSING ON THAT DIRECTION. THIS AREA MOST LIKELY TO BREAK THE CAP
WITH AREA FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS POSSIBLY
STAYING CAPPED UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
JET WOULD INCREASE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION POTENTIALLY
HELPING ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH THERE FOR SOME PRECIP TO BUILD SWD PER
THE WRF-NAM SOLUTION. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT PREVIOUS POP FCST LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...SHIFTING WRN EDGE OF
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE EAST WITH THE DRYLINE AND LOWERING AFTN POPS
ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE STRONGER CAP EXPECTED.

SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN AS MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
EXPECTED WITH BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY AS THE
EVENT GOES ON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING SHEAR. STORMS
LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED TO BEGIN WITH WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT AND TORNADO POTENTIAL LIMITED BY HIGH LCL AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS LIKELY BACKED CLOSER TO SOUTH THAN EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE TOWARD 06Z WILL SHIFT CHANCES TO THE EAST
OF THE FCST AREA.

PREVIOUS TEMP FCST LOOKS FINE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT TOWARD 00Z MOS.
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...
AGAIN IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL SEE WINDS COME AROUND FROM THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...
THE ONLY CHALLENGING WEATHER IN THIS LONG TERM WINDOW FROM THURSDAY
THRU TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD THE WEEKEND AS A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW
ENTERS THE PICTURE. BEFORE THEN...SHALLOW RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE
FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY FRIDAY BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE. AS SOON AS FRI NIGHT...A
DRYLINE COULD ALREADY BE BISECTING THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. GRADUAL
BACKING OF WINDS ALOFT ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THIS DRYLINE NOT MIXING TOO FAR EAST DURING
THE DAY...SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE CAPROCK
DURING THE AFTN AND OVERNIGHT.

PRESSURE FALLS STILL TO OUR WEST BY SAT EVNG MAY INDEED PULL THE
DRYLINE MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS INDICATE. IT/S NOT UNCOMMON
TO SEE MODELS SERIOUSLY UNDERESTIMATE THE WWD EXTENT OF
RETROGRADING DRYLINES IN THESE SETUPS...BUT IT/S STILL TOO SOON TO
EXPAND PRECIP MENTION ONTO THE CAPROCK FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
NONETHELESS...THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A QUICK-MOVING
PACIFIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE SOUTH PLAINS SAT NIGHT...SO THE
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WILL PROVE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW FAR
WEST POPS ARE NECESSARY. FOR THOSE WHO REMEMBER SATURDAY NIGHT
4/14/2012...A PACIFIC FRONT AND DRYLINE COLLISION WAS REALIZED
MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS PROGGED WHICH CAUGHT MANY FORECASTERS
BY SURPRISE. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN PLACE THIS TIME AROUND...SO
WE CANNOT ENTIRELY IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN WHILE
HOOKING NEWD ACROSS SERN CO AND SWRN KS. THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY A
TEXTBOOK PATTERN FOR CLASSIC SOUTH PLAINS DUST EVENTS...SO WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP CONSIDERABLY SUN AFTN ALONG WITH BLOWING
DUST MENTION. HIGH WINDS MAY SPARE THE REGION AS THE 500MB AND 700MB
WIND MAXIMA DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST ATTM. FIRE WEATHER
MAY ALSO FAIL TO EMERGE AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MUCH COOLER BEHIND
THE PACIFIC FRONT...THOUGH WE/VE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE TEMPS PROVE
MUCH WARMER THAN PROGGED. WE DID COOL SUNDAY/S HIGHS A TOUCH...
BUT ARE STILL RESIDING ABOVE MEX AND ECM MOS. COOL AND DRY NW FLOW
THEN SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWS AND FILLS TO
OUR NORTHEAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL SADLY BE SWEPT BACK TO ITS
ORIGIN IN THIS PATTERN...SO MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A SCARCE COMMODITY.

FIRE WEATHER...
LOW END RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS REASONABLE WRN TWO COLUMNS OF
COUNTIES. WINDS WEST OF THE DRYLINE TO INCREASE TOWARD 25 MPH AT THE
20-FOOT LEVEL WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 PCT. SOME QUESTION HOW
LONG THAT COMBINATION WILL LAST ACROSS THIS AREA BUT NEAR 3 HOURS IF
NOT EXCEEDING THAT DURATION SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED WARNING AND UPGRADE THE WATCH AREA TO A WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  44  75  44  86 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  46  76  47  87 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     87  48  77  49  89 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     88  47  79  52  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  50  79  53  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   88  50  77  53  89 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    89  49  79  54  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  56  79  49  89 /  50  40   0   0   0
SPUR          87  53  80  53  92 /  30  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  59  80  53  94 /  30  30   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KBRO 231129 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
629 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...1500 FT DECK HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING ACROSS THE LOWER
VALLEY THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH HAVE RECENTLY
BEGUN TO SPREAD SOUTH AND MAY REACH KMFE BEFORE MID MORNING. LOWEST
CLOUD DECKS WILL BREAK AFTER SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR ALOFT QUICKLY
MIXES TO THE SFC. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY DUE
TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL REACH AROUND 15KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT WITH A LOWER INVERSION BOTTLING UP THE SFC MOISTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...GENERALLY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT
KEEPS THINGS STABLE. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DECREASE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AS A LARGE TROUGH SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT TO THE REGION...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE...MID LEVEL CAPPING INCREASES...AND SFC FOCUSING MECHANISMS
ARE ABSENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...REACHING
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM... /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/ THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM A PROGRESSIVE WEST
TO EAST TRACK TO A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP
SHOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. BY EARLY TO THE MID WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE BUT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS. A GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINS WITH A WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING INTO BREEZY AND HOT WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND. WINDS TO TAPPER OFF MONDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AS A DRY LINE SETS UP TO THE WEST. THEN A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG TROUGH LOWERING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR A DAY OR TWO. NO RAIN IS SEEN AT
THIS TIME AS MOISTURE VALUES DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS WELL NORTH OF TEXAS. DISSIPATING
FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HAVE NO AFFECT ON AREA WEATHER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UPPER TROUGH DIVES SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND TRACKS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. EXPECTING S-SW FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
IN TURN PUSHES TEMPERATURES UPWARD. BREEZY AFTERNOONS WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE PUSHING MAXIMUMS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOWER 100S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND UPPER 80S TO MID 90S MID AND
LOWER VALLEY.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BROAD UPPER TROUGH/LOW BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER
MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF
BUT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF 70-80 DECAMETERS DEEPER...HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CWA ARE VIRTUALLY THE SAME. GENERAL TRENDS
IS FOR 850-700MB SW-W FLOW TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY. A SURFACE DRY LINE
TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE COUNTIES WITH TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE POSSIBLY TO THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE SPRING. DEW
POINTS LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
SURFACE WINDS HOWEVER LOOK LIGHT REDUCING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
AS WILL HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESS LOWER ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NORMAL
TUESDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN NEARLY FLAT THIS MORNING
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAVE KEPT INFLUENTIAL SFC WINDS NEARLY CALM.
SFC LOW PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS...APPROACHING 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY AFFECT SEAS...BUT SHOULD STAY
BELOW 4 FEET TOMORROW.

THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
STRONG UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY
WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASING NEXT WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY AS MODELS INDICATE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AND SEAS BUILDING WITH THE TIGHTER GRADIENT. SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND NO FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KSJT 231124
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
624 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect mainly VFR conditions at the terminals during the next 24
hours. Low level southerly flow will prevail across West Central
Texas with surface wind gusts of 30 knots. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop along a dryline late this afternoon and
move east across the area this evening. The best coverage of storms
will be across the Big Country. Have gone with a VCTS at the KABI
terminal this evening. The confidence is not high enough to add
thunder for most of the terminals due to very sparse coverage
further south.

21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of West Central Texas
this afternoon and evening. Models still mix a dryline to our
western border late this afternoon. The NAM and GFS do generate QPF
over our counties; however, the GFS is more aggressive and develops
a convective line on the dryline at 06Z. The NAM really only
indicates a small QPF area over our north central counties between
03Z and 06Z; then, it`s gone. Plus, I did some quick analysis of
streamline fields aloft, for this time frame, and the best
diffluence is north of our area, near Wichita Falls between 00Z and
06Z. So, my confidence isn`t real high as to timing and location of
thunderstorms. Nevertheless, I agree with SPC; if thunderstorms
develop, some may be severe this afternoon and evening. The main
threats are large hail, damaging winds, and ever present deadly
lightning.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday Night)

I didn`t make any major chances to these periods. Another front
still looks likely for Thursday, with north surface winds dominating
all of West Central Texas during the afternoon. Return flow develops
quickly overnight Thursday night, and mainly south surface winds
will dominate on Friday. Cooler temperatures on Thursday will give
way to warmer temperatures by the start of next weekend, with highs
Saturday mainly in the 90 to 95 range.

Huber

(Saturday Night)

The best chance for severe thunderstorms for the long term
continues to center on next Saturday night. Models continue to
develop a surface dryline across our western border Saturday
afternoon and evening. Models push a well-developed upper low, and
its associated trough, into the southern Rockies Saturday afternoon.
Again, streamline analysis of winds fields aloft indicates much more
impressive diffluence aloft over West Central Texas beginning
Saturday afternoon and continuing until around midnight Saturday
night. Although it`s too early to assess the risks with high
certainty, model data currently supports possible tornadoes in
addition to large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning.

Huber

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Models continue to push another dry front across West Central Texas
Sunday afternoon. Cooler air behind the front will drop temperatures
for the start of the next work week.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  87  63  85  58  92 /  20  30   5   5   5
San Angelo  92  64  88  59  92 /  20  30   5   5   5
Junction  87  65  89  62  88 /  10  20  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$























000
FXUS64 KMAF 231107
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
607 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today at all southeast New Mexico and
West Texas TAF sites.  A 50kt low level jet over the Permian Basin
will move off to the northeast by around 23/14Z, but gusty southerly
surface winds will persist through the morning due to a fairly tight
surface pressure gradient.  Low level winds will veer to the
southwest with a dryline pushing east across the region.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline this
afternoon, but think these will stay mainly to the east of KFST and
KMAF.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A Large upper level trough across the western states will slowly
move eastward from the Great Basin today to the high plains by
Thursday morning. As this occurs the associated surface
trough/low across the western high plains will shift eastward
today toward the eastern Permian Basin by this evening and to
central Texas by Thursday morning. Increasing low level convergence
and upper level forcing should encourage thunderstorm development
along the stalling dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon. More thunderstorm development
will be possible tonight in these areas as the dryline retreats
toward the eastern Permian Basin as the upper level trough
approaches. Some storms could be severe given cape values of 1000
to 2000 j/kg and 0 to 6 kilometer shear of 30 knots. High winds
are also likely in the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and this
evening as the system approaches. A high wind warning has been
issued for that area.

Cooler (but still above normal) temperatures and fair conditions
will follow this system Thursday as surface high pressure builds
into the region.

Southwesterly flow aloft will develop by Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next potent upper level storm system approaching from the
western states. Much above normal temperatures are expected as
another lee surface low/dry line develops in this flow. Thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening along and east of
the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin as the upper system
tracks to Arizona by evening. Behind the dryline breezy to windy
conditions will develop with high winds possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Saturday.

Windy, Cooler and dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday
behind the dryline and cold front with high winds possible again
in the Guadalupe Mountains. Cool with below normal temperatures
and fair conditions may continue next Tuesday and Wednesday
with upper level cyclonic flow progged to be over the forecast
area.

FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline will sharpen up over the area this afternoon as
southwesterly winds increase ahead of an upper level storm system
moving over New Mexico.  Temperatures will warm above normal to the
west of the dryline with afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent
along and west of an Andrews to Big Bend line.  Since 20 foot winds
will increase to 20 to 25 mph sustained across the Guadalupe
Mountains and over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, and
fire danger will be very high, a Red Flag warning will continue in
effect in these areas from 11 am until 9 pm MDT.  The highest winds
are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is
in effect from noon until midnight MDT.  Recovery will mainly be
poor to fair tonight.

A cold front will move south over the area Thursday.  20 foot winds
behind the front will rise to 15 to 20 mph over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin Thursday morning, but should be 10 to
15 mph at best during the afternoon.  High temperatures will be
closer to normal, but most locations will see minimum afternoon RH/s
of 10 to 15 percent.  After poor to fair recovery west of the Pecos
River Thursday night, and good to the east, another upper storm
system will begin to approach the region.  Near critical to critical
fire weather conditions will occur in the Guadalupe Mountains Friday
afternoon, if not over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.
However, much more widespread windy conditions will occur over all
of southeast New Mexico and West Texas Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be well above normal Saturday, but not quite as
warm Sunday.  Regardless, it appears low RH/s will combine with high
to very high fire danger to create widespread critical fire weather
both days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  57  82  57  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  57  83  55  /  20  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                88  55  84  49  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  96  63  93  63  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  59  87  61  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  55  78  55  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   85  54  80  53  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   85  46  78  44  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  59  84  56  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  89  60  85  59  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    89  57  87  59  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight MDT
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight MDT
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

67/12




000
FXUS64 KAMA 231104 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/19






000
FXUS64 KAMA 231104 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/19






000
FXUS64 KAMA 231104 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/19






000
FXUS64 KAMA 231104 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH
MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INSERT INTO TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER SOME
EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE THEM AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/19






000
FXUS64 KCRP 231011 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
511 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AS VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4
MILE AND SHOULD STAY TIL ABOUT 9 AM. FARTHER SOUTH...THINK
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR DENSE FOG.
PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST
THURSDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH A
WEAK JET STREAK COULD HAVE CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE RIVER
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT BEFORE STRONG CAP WEAKENS AND ENDS ACTIVITY. JET
MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AND COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN-MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. STILL WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA AREA
THURSDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...LOOKS TO BE WARM AND
HUMID...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. AM GENERALLY GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCEC FOR
SOUTHERN BAYS AND TONIGHT OVER THE GULFMEX AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE WATERS. FLOW WEAKENS ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS MOISTURE
AXIS STAYS INLAND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...RATHER ZONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MINOR H5 VORT MAXES
ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS PROG TO
STALL ACROSS EWX CWA THURS NIGHT WITH ISO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION
/SLIGHT CHANCE AT THAT/ WILL OCCUR SAT EVENING ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AS SLIGHTLY MORE POTENT H5 VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AS 85KT H25 JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE AREA. ATTM CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ
DEVELOPS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DROP BACK TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LACK OF FORCING AND DRYING
OF ATMOSPHERE OCCURS. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH A THERMAL
TROUGH/QUASIDRYLINE EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS. HAVE GONE WELL
ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CLOSE TO ECX
GUIDANCE. A DRY COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR
OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE /PWATS LOWERING TO AROUND 1/2 INCH/. VERY WARM
TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY/WED GIVEN STRONG SUN
ANGLE...DRY AIRMASS...AND VERY WARM H9 TEMPS. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND
OF GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR TUES/WED DUE SURROUNDING CWA
CONSISTENCY...BUT MAY NEED TO WARM TEMPS SOME IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            95  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM







000
FXUS64 KCRP 231011 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
511 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...DID A QUICK UPDATE FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AS VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4
MILE AND SHOULD STAY TIL ABOUT 9 AM. FARTHER SOUTH...THINK
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR DENSE FOG.
PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST
THURSDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH A
WEAK JET STREAK COULD HAVE CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE RIVER
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT BEFORE STRONG CAP WEAKENS AND ENDS ACTIVITY. JET
MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AND COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN-MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. STILL WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA AREA
THURSDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...LOOKS TO BE WARM AND
HUMID...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. AM GENERALLY GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCEC FOR
SOUTHERN BAYS AND TONIGHT OVER THE GULFMEX AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE WATERS. FLOW WEAKENS ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS MOISTURE
AXIS STAYS INLAND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...RATHER ZONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MINOR H5 VORT MAXES
ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS PROG TO
STALL ACROSS EWX CWA THURS NIGHT WITH ISO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION
/SLIGHT CHANCE AT THAT/ WILL OCCUR SAT EVENING ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AS SLIGHTLY MORE POTENT H5 VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AS 85KT H25 JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE AREA. ATTM CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ
DEVELOPS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DROP BACK TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LACK OF FORCING AND DRYING
OF ATMOSPHERE OCCURS. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH A THERMAL
TROUGH/QUASIDRYLINE EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS. HAVE GONE WELL
ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CLOSE TO ECX
GUIDANCE. A DRY COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR
OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE /PWATS LOWERING TO AROUND 1/2 INCH/. VERY WARM
TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY/WED GIVEN STRONG SUN
ANGLE...DRY AIRMASS...AND VERY WARM H9 TEMPS. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND
OF GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR TUES/WED DUE SURROUNDING CWA
CONSISTENCY...BUT MAY NEED TO WARM TEMPS SOME IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            95  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KHGX 231007
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
502 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR RADIATIVE FOG FORMATION SINCE MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTY DENSE FOG PRIMARILY WEST OF I-45 AND SOUTH OF I-10
HAS LOWERED VISIBILITIES TO A 1/4 MILE OR LESS. ONCE THE FOG
BREAKS...THE FORECAST IS FOR ANOTHER WARM AND PARTIALLY CLOUDY
DAY. A MORE MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND DAY THAT WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES
ON THE UP AND UP...MAKING THIS AFTERNOON FEEL A BIT MORE OF WHAT
WE`RE USED TO AROUND HERE IN LATE APRIL...WARM AND A TOUCH MORE
MUGGY.

HIGHER LOWER LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL BE MORE REALIZED IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE RETURN OF DENSE RADIATIVE FOG. THE THREAT FOR THURSDAY
MORNING FOG WILL BE MINIMIZED BY A STRONGER ONSHORE WIND AS LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE KEEP THE ONSHORE GRADIENT JUST TIGHT
ENOUGH IN GENERATING A 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WIND. THIS SURFACE
BREEZE...AND A MODELED 95H 25-30 KT OFF-THE-SURFACE WIND FIELD...
SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG
RETURNS FRIDAY MORNING AS MID-LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN. RESIDENT
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINT AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THUR NITE/FRI
MORN WITH A WEAKENED WIND FIELD FROM A PASSING SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SET THE SCENE FOR A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT. THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELL OR TWO BRUSHING THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERN CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SPC HAS DAY 2 OUTLOOKED IN GENERAL
TO COMMUNICATE THIS SLIGHT STORM THREAT. GENERAL MENTION AS ANY
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DOING SO
WITHIN A VERY WARM AND HUMID (UN-CAPPED) LATE DAY AIR MASS.

THE ENSEMBLE IS STILL MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF AN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST 5H TROUGH WHOSE AXIS WILL BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG A POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEADING A MAIN COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL DEPENDENT
UPON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT/SHARPNESS OF 5H TROUGH AXIS AS TO
WHETHER REGION WILL EXPERIENCE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY-MID MONDAY
ACTIVE WEATHER. INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
AS RECENT RUNS ARE IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT OF INTRODUCING MORE FAR
INTERIOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. 31

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG...SOME DENSE...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT TRANSITIONS TO VFR TERRITORY GOING
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. REPEAT TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS &
PATCHY FOG. VISBYS MIGHT BE KEPT IN CHECK BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
BUT STILL ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS. 47

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SPEEDS & SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL PROBABLY NEED CAUTION/ADVSY
FLAGS BY SAT NIGHT. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  65  86  65  85 /  10  20  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  65  84  66  84 /  10  10  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  68  76  68  79 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
     WALLER...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31




000
FXUS64 KHGX 231002
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
502 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR RADIATIVE FOG FORMATION SINCE MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTY DENSE FOG PRIMARILY WEST OF I-45 AND SOUTH OF I-10
HAS LOWERED VISIBILITIES TO A 1/4 MILE OR LESS. ONCE THE FOG
BREAKS...THE FORECAST IS FOR ANOTHER WARM AND PARTIALLY CLOUDY
DAY. A MORE MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND DAY THAT WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES
ON THE UP AND UP...MAKING THIS AFTERNOON FEEL A BIT MORE OF WHAT
WE`RE USED TO AROUND HERE IN LATE APRIL...WARM AND A TOUCH MORE
MUGGY.

HIGHER LOWER LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL BE MORE REALIZED IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE RETURN OF DENSE RADIATIVE FOG. THE THREAT FOR THURSDAY
MORNING FOG WILL BE MINIMIZED BY A STRONGER ONSHORE WIND AS LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE KEEP THE ONSHORE GRADIENT JUST TIGHT
ENOUGH IN GENERATING A 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WIND. THIS SURFACE
BREEZE...AND A MODELED 95H 25-30 KT OFF-THE-SURFACE WIND FIELD...
SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG
RETURNS FRIDAY MORNING AS MID-LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN. RESIDENT
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINT AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THUR
NITE/FRI MORN WILL A WEAKENED WIND FIELD FROM A PASSING SOUTHERN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SET THE SCENE FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT. THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM CELL OR TWO BRUSHING THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SPC HAS DAY 2 OUTLOOKED IN
GENERAL TO COMMUNICATE THIS SLIGHT STORM THREAT. GENERAL MENTION
AS ANY DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DOING SO WITHIN A VERY WARM AND HUMID (UN-CAPPED) LATE DAY AIR
MASS.

THE ENSEMBLE IS STILL MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF AN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST 5H TROUGH WHOSE AXIS WILL BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG A POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEADING A MAIN COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL DEPENDENT
UPON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT/SHARPNESS OF 5H TROUGH AXIS AS TO
WHETHER REGION WILL EXPERIENCE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY-MID MONDAY
ACTIVE WEATHER. INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
AS RECENT RUNS ARE IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT OF INTRODUCING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 31

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG...SOME DENSE...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT TRANSITIONS TO VFR TERRITORY GOING
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. REPEAT TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS &
PATCHY FOG. VISBYS MIGHT BE KEPT IN CHECK BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
BUT STILL ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS. 47

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SPEEDS & SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL PROBABLY NEED CAUTION/ADVSY
FLAGS BY SAT NIGHT. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      85  65  86  65  85 /  10  20  20  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  65  84  66  84 /  10  10  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  68  76  68  79 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
     BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...
     WALLER...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31




000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230958
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
358 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS TODAY BRINGING WINDY DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL GENERATE VERY HIGH WINDS ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING TYPICAL SPRING TIME
WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF HIGH WINDS. THE FIRST
EPISODE WILL BE TODAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
INDUCING LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. TRAILING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTING WARM DRY AIR INTO THEW CWA. THIS
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN DRY SURFACE TO
600 MB LAPSE RATES WITH THESE FACTORS INDUCING WINDY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS STILL LOOK TO BE NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA MOST AREAS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING WITH WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION LOWERING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN AHEAD OF WEST COAST TROUGH SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL.

POSSIBLE MAJOR WIND EVENT COULD EVOLVE ON SATURDAY. VERY DEEP
500 MB UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO WITH 70
TO 80 KT MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
BY EARLY EVENING. ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL GENERATE DEEP LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WITH TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. GRADIENTS CONSEQUENTLY STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
WARM DRY NATURE OF AIR MASS RESULTING IN MIXING HEIGHTS TO 600 MB
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS VERY WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH WIND
SPEEDS LIKELY EXCEEDING ADVISORY LEVELS ALL LOCATIONS AND EVEN
ATTAINING WARNING LEVELS OVER SOME PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT GRADIENTS SHOULD SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LOWERING TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES. LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EXIST
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE CWA BEING LOCATED BETWEEN DEEP TROUGH
TO THE EAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE WEST. RESULTANT FLOW
WILL SUSTAIN TRANSPORT OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT WARM DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH NO
CEILINGS EXPECTED BELOW 12,000 FEET AGL. HOWEVER AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z
RESULTING WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 KT AND ISOLATED MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN BLOWING DUST. IN ADDITION EXPECT MODERATE OR GREATER TURBULENCE
BELOW 10,000 FEET AGL DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF WARM DRY
AIR MASS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AROUND 5
TO 10 PERCENT LOWLANDS AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT MOUNTAINS EACH DAY. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MEANWHILE BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING RED FLAG CRITERIA. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS FORECASTED FOR THURSDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO
NEAR BREEZY ON FRIDAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
VERY HIGH WINDS ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS
AGAIN. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 86  60  82  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           84  53  80  51  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              84  52  78  50  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              83  52  77  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              59  36  54  42  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   80  53  76  50  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             75  41  71  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  82  47  78  47  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               80  48  77  49  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      86  58  80  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               81  46  82  48  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            90  56  86  56  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              79  52  74  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  85  54  81  55  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            85  52  80  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          82  62  78  55  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           82  45  78  46  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   81  46  77  48  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                81  53  77  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               85  53  80  51  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 70  42  66  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               71  37  67  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                69  37  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 75  40  72  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               78  51  73  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               78  50  75  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            73  37  70  40  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  77  42  73  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   76  38  73  38  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              74  35  72  35  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 76  47  71  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  82  52  79  51  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 81  48  78  49  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          83  51  80  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              79  46  76  47  81 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

05 ROGASH





000
FXUS64 KLUB 230955 CCA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
451 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A SHARPENING DRYLINE LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM IDAHO TO
ARIZONA TO MOVE EWD TO THE ERN EXTENT OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE DAY. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW BUT ALSO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TO RESULT IN A DRYLINE THAT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED THROUGH
THE DAY THEN MOVE EWD TO AROUND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY LATE AFTN.
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
A CONVECTIVE PRECIP SIGNAL MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NRN ROLLING PLAINS EWD INTO WRN OKLAHOMA AND NW TEXAS...ALTHOUGH
MAYBE NOT AS ROBUST A SIGNAL AS SEEN PREVIOUSLY. SOME CONCERNS ARE
QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /MUST GET AS FOR SOUTH AS SAN
ANTONIO AND COLLEGE STATION BEFORE FINDING A 60F DEW POINT AS OF
08Z/...POSSIBLE LIMITATIONS DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS
AND LAPSE RATES /MARGINAL EFFECT EXPECTED/...AND STRENGTH OF THE
CAP. AS FOR MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE MID 50S MOVE INTO THE ERN ZONES
ALTHOUGH REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. STILL THAT TYPE OF MOISTURE IS
FAR FROM DISCOUNTING PRECIP. BEST PUSH TO THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
BE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH UPPER SUPPORT ALSO
FOCUSING ON THAT DIRECTION. THIS AREA MOST LIKELY TO BREAK THE CAP
WITH AREA FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS POSSIBLY
STAYING CAPPED UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
JET WOULD INCREASE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION POTENTIALLY
HELPING ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH THERE FOR SOME PRECIP TO BUILD SWD PER
THE WRF-NAM SOLUTION. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT PREVIOUS POP FCST LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...SHIFTING WRN EDGE OF
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE EAST WITH THE DRYLINE AND LOWERING AFTN POPS
ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE STRONGER CAP EXPECTED.

SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN AS MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
EXPECTED WITH BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY AS THE
EVENT GOES ON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING SHEAR. STORMS
LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED TO BEGIN WITH WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT AND TORNADO POTENTIAL LIMITED BY HIGH LCL AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS LIKELY BACKED CLOSER TO SOUTH THAN EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE TOWARD 06Z WILL SHIFT CHANCES TO THE EAST
OF THE FCST AREA.

PREVIOUS TEMP FCST LOOKS FINE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT TOWARD 00Z MOS.
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...
AGAIN IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL SEE WINDS COME AROUND FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE ONLY CHALLENGING WEATHER IN THIS LONG TERM WINDOW FROM THURSDAY
THRU TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD THE WEEKEND AS A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW
ENTERS THE PICTURE. BEFORE THEN...SHALLOW RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE
FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY FRIDAY BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE. AS SOON AS FRI NIGHT...A
DRYLINE COULD ALREADY BE BISECTING THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. GRADUAL
BACKING OF WINDS ALOFT ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THIS DRYLINE NOT MIXING TOO FAR EAST DURING
THE DAY...SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE CAPROCK
DURING THE AFTN AND OVERNIGHT.

PRESSURE FALLS STILL TO OUR WEST BY SAT EVNG MAY INDEED PULL THE
DRYLINE MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS INDICATE. IT/S NOT UNCOMMON
TO SEE MODELS SERIOUSLY UNDERESTIMATE THE WWD EXTENT OF
RETROGRADING DRYLINES IN THESE SETUPS...BUT IT/S STILL TOO SOON TO
EXPAND PRECIP MENTION ONTO THE CAPROCK FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
NONETHELESS...THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A QUICK-MOVING
PACIFIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE SOUTH PLAINS SAT NIGHT...SO THE
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WILL PROVE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW FAR
WEST POPS ARE NECESSARY. FOR THOSE WHO REMEMBER SATURDAY NIGHT
4/14/2012...A PACIFIC FRONT AND DRYLINE COLLISION WAS REALIZED
MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS PROGGED WHICH CAUGHT MANY FORECASTERS
BY SURPRISE. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN PLACE THIS TIME AROUND...SO
WE CANNOT ENTIRELY IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN WHILE
HOOKING NEWD ACROSS SERN CO AND SWRN KS. THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY A
TEXTBOOK PATTERN FOR CLASSIC SOUTH PLAINS DUST EVENTS...SO WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP CONSIDERABLY SUN AFTN ALONG WITH BLOWING
DUST MENTION. HIGH WINDS MAY SPARE THE REGION AS THE 500MB AND 700MB
WIND MAXIMA DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST ATTM. FIRE WEATHER
MAY ALSO FAIL TO EMERGE AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MUCH COOLER BEHIND
THE PACIFIC FRONT...THOUGH WE/VE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE TEMPS PROVE
MUCH WARMER THAN PROGGED. WE DID COOL SUNDAY/S HIGHS A TOUCH...
BUT ARE STILL RESIDING ABOVE MEX AND ECM MOS. COOL AND DRY NW FLOW
THEN SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWS AND FILLS TO
OUR NORTHEAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL SADLY BE SWEPT BACK TO ITS
ORIGIN IN THIS PATTERN...SO MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A SCARCE COMMODITY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW END RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS REASONABLE WRN TWO COLUMNS OF
COUNTIES. WINDS WEST OF THE DRYLINE TO INCREASE TOWARD 25 MPH AT THE
20-FOOT LEVEL WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 PCT. SOME QUESTION HOW
LONG THAT COMBINATION WILL LAST ACROSS THIS AREA BUT NEAR 3 HOURS IF
NOT EXCEEDING THAT DURATION SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED WARNING AND UPGRADE THE WATCH AREA TO A WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  44  75  44  86 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  46  76  47  87 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     87  48  77  49  89 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     88  47  79  52  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  50  79  53  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   88  50  77  53  89 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    89  49  79  54  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  56  79  49  89 /  50  40   0   0   0
SPUR          87  53  80  53  92 /  30  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  59  80  53  94 /  30  30   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

07/93









000
FXUS64 KMAF 230929
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
429 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A Large upper level trough across the western states will slowly
move eastward from the Great Basin today to the high plains by
Thursday morning. As this occurs the associated surface
trough/low across the western high plains will shift eastward
today toward the eastern Permian Basin by this evening and to
central Texas by Thursday morning. Increasing low level convergence
and upper level forcing should encourage thunderstorm development
along the stalling dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon. More thunderstorm development
will be possible tonight in these areas as the dryline retreats
toward the eastern Permian Basin as the upper level trough
approaches. Some storms could be severe given cape values of 1000
to 2000 j/kg and 0 to 6 kilometer shear of 30 knots. High winds
are also likely in the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and this
evening as the system approaches. A high wind warning has been
issued for that area.

Cooler (but still above normal) temperatures and fair conditions
will follow this system Thursday as surface high pressure builds
into the region.

Southwesterly flow aloft will develop by Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next potent upper level storm system approaching from the
western states. Much above normal temperatures are expected as
another lee surface low/dry line develops in this flow. Thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening along and east of
the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin as the upper system
tracks to Arizona by evening. Behind the dryline breezy to windy
conditions will develop with high winds possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Saturday.

Windy, Cooler and dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday
behind the dryline and cold front with high winds possible again
in the Guadalupe Mountains. Cool with below normal temperatures
and fair conditions may continue next Tuesday and Wednesday
with upper level cyclonic flow progged to be over the forecast
area.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline will sharpen up over the area this afternoon as
southwesterly winds increase ahead of an upper level storm system
moving over New Mexico.  Temperatures will warm above normal to the
west of the dryline with afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent
along and west of an Andrews to Big Bend line.  Since 20 foot winds
will increase to 20 to 25 mph sustained across the Guadalupe
Mountains and over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, and
fire danger will be very high, a Red Flag warning will continue in
effect in these areas from 11 am until 9 pm MDT.  The highest winds
are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is
in effect from noon until midnight MDT.  Recovery will mainly be
poor to fair tonight.

A cold front will move south over the area Thursday.  20 foot winds
behind the front will rise to 15 to 20 mph over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin Thursday morning, but should be 10 to
15 mph at best during the afternoon.  High temperatures will be
closer to normal, but most locations will see minimum afternoon RH/s
of 10 to 15 percent.  After poor to fair recovery west of the Pecos
River Thursday night, and good to the east, another upper storm
system will begin to approach the region.  Near critical to critical
fire weather conditions will occur in the Guadalupe Mountains Friday
afternoon, if not over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.
However, much more widespread windy conditions will occur over all
of southeast New Mexico and West Texas Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be well above normal Saturday, but not quite as
warm Sunday.  Regardless, it appears low RH/s will combine with high
to very high fire danger to create widespread critical fire weather
both days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  57  82  57  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  57  83  55  /  20  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                88  55  84  49  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  96  63  93  63  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  59  87  61  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  55  78  55  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   85  54  80  53  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   85  46  78  44  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  59  84  56  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  89  60  85  59  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    89  57  87  59  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight MDT
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight MDT
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

67/12






000
FXUS64 KMAF 230929
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
429 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A Large upper level trough across the western states will slowly
move eastward from the Great Basin today to the high plains by
Thursday morning. As this occurs the associated surface
trough/low across the western high plains will shift eastward
today toward the eastern Permian Basin by this evening and to
central Texas by Thursday morning. Increasing low level convergence
and upper level forcing should encourage thunderstorm development
along the stalling dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon. More thunderstorm development
will be possible tonight in these areas as the dryline retreats
toward the eastern Permian Basin as the upper level trough
approaches. Some storms could be severe given cape values of 1000
to 2000 j/kg and 0 to 6 kilometer shear of 30 knots. High winds
are also likely in the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and this
evening as the system approaches. A high wind warning has been
issued for that area.

Cooler (but still above normal) temperatures and fair conditions
will follow this system Thursday as surface high pressure builds
into the region.

Southwesterly flow aloft will develop by Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next potent upper level storm system approaching from the
western states. Much above normal temperatures are expected as
another lee surface low/dry line develops in this flow. Thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening along and east of
the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin as the upper system
tracks to Arizona by evening. Behind the dryline breezy to windy
conditions will develop with high winds possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Saturday.

Windy, Cooler and dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday
behind the dryline and cold front with high winds possible again
in the Guadalupe Mountains. Cool with below normal temperatures
and fair conditions may continue next Tuesday and Wednesday
with upper level cyclonic flow progged to be over the forecast
area.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline will sharpen up over the area this afternoon as
southwesterly winds increase ahead of an upper level storm system
moving over New Mexico.  Temperatures will warm above normal to the
west of the dryline with afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent
along and west of an Andrews to Big Bend line.  Since 20 foot winds
will increase to 20 to 25 mph sustained across the Guadalupe
Mountains and over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, and
fire danger will be very high, a Red Flag warning will continue in
effect in these areas from 11 am until 9 pm MDT.  The highest winds
are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is
in effect from noon until midnight MDT.  Recovery will mainly be
poor to fair tonight.

A cold front will move south over the area Thursday.  20 foot winds
behind the front will rise to 15 to 20 mph over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin Thursday morning, but should be 10 to
15 mph at best during the afternoon.  High temperatures will be
closer to normal, but most locations will see minimum afternoon RH/s
of 10 to 15 percent.  After poor to fair recovery west of the Pecos
River Thursday night, and good to the east, another upper storm
system will begin to approach the region.  Near critical to critical
fire weather conditions will occur in the Guadalupe Mountains Friday
afternoon, if not over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.
However, much more widespread windy conditions will occur over all
of southeast New Mexico and West Texas Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be well above normal Saturday, but not quite as
warm Sunday.  Regardless, it appears low RH/s will combine with high
to very high fire danger to create widespread critical fire weather
both days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  57  82  57  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  57  83  55  /  20  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                88  55  84  49  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  96  63  93  63  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  59  87  61  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  55  78  55  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   85  54  80  53  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   85  46  78  44  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  59  84  56  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  89  60  85  59  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    89  57  87  59  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight MDT
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight MDT
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

67/12





000
FXUS64 KSJT 230929
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
430 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of West Central Texas
this afternoon and evening. Models still mix a dryline to our
western border late this afternoon. The NAM and GFS do generate QPF
over our counties; however, the GFS is more aggressive and develops
a convective line on the dryline at 06Z. The NAM really only
indicates a small QPF area over our north central counties between
03Z and 06Z; then, it`s gone. Plus, I did some quick analysis of
streamline fields aloft, for this time frame, and the best
diffluence is north of our area, near Wichita Falls between 00Z and
06Z. So, my confidence isn`t real high as to timing and location of
thunderstorms. Nevertheless, I agree with SPC; if thunderstorms
develop, some may be severe this afternoon and evening. The main
threats are large hail, damaging winds, and ever present deadly
lightning.

Huber

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday Night)

I didn`t make any major chances to these periods. Another front
still looks likely for Thursday, with north surface winds dominating
all of West Central Texas during the afternoon. Return flow develops
quickly overnight Thursday night, and mainly south surface winds
will dominate on Friday. Cooler temperatures on Thursday will give
way to warmer temperatures by the start of next weekend, with highs
Saturday mainly in the 90 to 95 range.

Huber

(Saturday Night)

The best chance for severe thunderstorms for the long term
continues to center on next Saturday night. Models continue to
develop a surface dryline across our western border Saturday
afternoon and evening. Models push a well-developed upper low, and
its associated trough, into the southern Rockies Saturday afternoon.
Again, streamline analysis of winds fields aloft indicates much more
impressive diffluence aloft over West Central Texas beginning
Saturday afternoon and continuing until around midnight Saturday
night. Although it`s too early to assess the risks with high
certainty, model data currently supports possible tornadoes in
addition to large hail, damaging winds, and deadly lightning.

Huber

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Models continue to push another dry front across West Central Texas
Sunday afternoon. Cooler air behind the front will drop temperatures
for the start of the next work week.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  60  86  62  86 /   5   5  10  30   5
San Angelo  87  60  89  63  90 /   5   5  10  30   5
Junction  85  61  86  63  87 /   5   5  10  30   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Huber







000
FXUS64 KBRO 230906
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
406 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...GENERALLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPS THINGS
STABLE. MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL DECREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A
LARGE TROUGH SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE MINIMAL
EFFECT TO THE REGION...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...MIDLEVEL
CAPPING INCREASES...AND SFC FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE ABSENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM... /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/ THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM A PROGRESSIVE WEST
TO EAST TRACK TO A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP
SHOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. BY EARLY TO THE MID WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE BUT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE SMALLER SCALE
DETAILS. A GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINS WITH A WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS TRANSITIONING INTO BREEZY AND HOT WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND. WINDS TO TAPPER OFF MONDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AS A DRY LINE SETS UP TO THE WEST. THEN A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG TROUGH LOWERING
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR A DAY OR TWO. NO RAIN IS SEEN AT
THIS TIME AS MOISTURE VALUES DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS WELL NORTH OF TEXAS. DISSIPATING
FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HAVE NO AFFECT ON AREA WEATHER.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UPPER TROUGH DIVES SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND TRACKS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. EXPECTING S-SW FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
IN TURN PUSHES TEMPERATURES UPWARD. BREEZY AFTERNOONS WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE PUSHING MAXIMUMS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO THE LOWER 100S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND UPPER 80S TO MID 90S MID AND
LOWER VALLEY.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BROAD UPPER TROUGH/LOW BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER
MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF
BUT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF 70-80 DECAMETERS DEEPER...HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CWA ARE VIRTUALLY THE SAME. GENERAL TRENDS
IS FOR 850-700MB SW-W FLOW TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY. A SURFACE DRY LINE
TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE COUNTIES WITH TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE POSSIBLY TO THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE SPRING. DEW
POINTS LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
SURFACE WINDS HOWEVER LOOK LIGHT REDUCING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
AS WILL HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESS LOWER ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NORMAL
TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS REMAIN NEARLY FLAT THIS MORNING
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAVE KEPT INFLUENTIAL SFC WINDS NEARLY CALM.
SFC LOW PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTH TEXAS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS...APPROACHING 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY AFFECT SEAS...BUT SHOULD STAY
BELOW 4 FEET TOMORROW.

THURSDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
STRONG UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY
WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASING NEXT WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY AS MODELS INDICATE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AND SEAS BUILDING WITH THE TIGHTER GRADIENT. SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND NO FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
CAMPBELL...PSU/GRAPHICS.






000
FXUS64 KLUB 230900
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A SHARPENING DRYLINE LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM IDAHO TO
ARIZONA TO MOVE EWD TO THE ERN EXTENT OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE DAY. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW BUT ALSO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TO RESULT IN A DRYLINE THAT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED THROUGH
THE DAY THEN MOVE EWD TO AROUND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY LATE AFTN.
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
A CONVECTIVE PRECIP SIGNAL MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NRN ROLLING PLAINS EWD INTO WRN OKLAHOMA AND NW TEXAS...ALTHOUGH
MAYBE NOT AS ROBUST A SIGNAL AS SEEN PREVIOUSLY. SOME CONCERNS ARE
QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /MUST GET AS FOR SOUTH AS SAN
ANTONIO AND COLLEGE STATION BEFORE FINDING A 60F DEW POINT AS OF
08Z/...POSSIBLE LIMITATIONS DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS
AND LAPSE RATES /MARGINAL EFFECT EXPECTED/...AND STRENGTH OF THE
CAP. AS FOR MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE MID 50S MOVE INTO THE ERN ZONES
ALTHOUGH REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. STILL THAT TYPE OF MOISTURE IS
FAR FROM DISCOUNTING PRECIP. BEST PUSH TO THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
BE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH UPPER SUPPORT ALSO
FOCUSING ON THAT DIRECTION. THIS AREA MOST LIKELY TO BREAK THE CAP
WITH AREA FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS POSSIBLY
STAYING CAPPED UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
JET WOULD INCREASE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION POTENTIALLY
HELPING ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH THERE FOR SOME PRECIP TO BUILD SWD PER
THE WRF-NAM SOLUTION. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT PREVIOUS POP FCST LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...SHIFTING WRN EDGE OF
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE EAST WITH THE DRYLINE AND LOWERING AFTN POPS
ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE STRONGER CAP EXPECTED.

SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN AS MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
EXPECTED WITH BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY AS THE
EVENT GOES ON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING SHEAR. STORMS
LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED TO BEGIN WITH WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT AND TORNADO POTENTIAL LIMITED BY HIGH LCL AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS LIKELY BACKED CLOSER TO SOUTH THAN EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE TOWARD 06Z WILL SHIFT CHANCES TO THE EAST
OF THE FCST AREA.

PREVIOUS TEMP FCST LOOKS FINE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT TOWARD 00Z MOS.
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...
AGAIN IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL SEE WINDS COME AROUND FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE ONLY CHALLENGING WEATHER IN THIS LONG TERM WINDOW FROM THURSDAY
THRU TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD THE WEEKEND AS A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER
ENTERS THE PICTURE. BEFORE THEN...SHALLOW RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE
FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY FRIDAY BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE. AS SOON AS FRI NIGHT...A
DRYLINE COULD ALREADY BE BISECTING THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. GRADUAL
BACKING OF WINDS ALOFT ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THIS DRYLINE NOT MIXING TOO FAR EAST DURING
THE DAY...SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE CAPROCK
DURING THE AFTN AND OVERNIGHT.

PRESSURE FALLS STILL TO OUR WEST BY SAT EVNG MAY INDEED PULL THE
DRYLINE MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS INDICATE. IT/S NOT UNCOMMON
TO SEE MODELS SERIOUSLY UNDERESTIMATE THE WWD EXTENT OF
RETROGRADING DRYLINES IN THESE SETUPS...BUT IT/S STILL TOO SOON TO
EXPAND PRECIP MENTION ONTO THE CAPROCK FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
NONETHELESS...THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A QUICK-MOVING
PACIFIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE SOUTH PLAINS SAT NIGHT. FOR THOSE
WHO REMEMBER SATURDAY NIGHT 4/14/2012...SUCH A SCENARIO WAS
REALIZED MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS INDICATED WHICH CAUGHT
MANY FORECASTERS BY SURPRISE. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN PLACE THIS
TIME AROUND...SO WE CAN/T ENTIRELY IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN WHILE
HOOKING NEWD ACROSS SERN CO AND SWRN KS. THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY A
TEXTBOOK PATTERN FOR CLASSIC SOUTH PLAINS DUST EVENTS...SO WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP CONSIDERABLY SUN AFTN ALONG WITH BLOWING
DUST MENTION. HIGH WINDS MAY SPARE THE REGION AS THE 500MB AND 700MB
WIND MAXIMA DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST ATTM. FIRE WEATHER
MAY ALSO FAIL TO EMERGE AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MUCH COOLER BEHIND
THE PACIFIC FRONT...THOUGH WE/VE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE DRIER AND
WARMER WAS THE ACTUAL RESULT. WE DID COOL SUNDAY/S HIGHS A TOUCH...
BUT ARE STILL RESIDING ABOVE MEX AND ECM MOS. COOL AND DRY NW
FLOW THEN SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWS AND
FILLS TO OUR NORTHEAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL SADLY BE SWEPT BACK TO
ITS ORIGIN IN THIS PATTERN...SO MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A SCARCE COMMODITY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW END RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS REASONABLE WRN TWO COLUMNS OF
COUNTIES. WINDS WEST OF THE DRYLINE TO INCREASE TOWARD 25 MPH AT THE
20-FOOT LEVEL WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 PCT. SOME QUESTION HOW
LONG THAT COMBINATION WILL LAST ACROSS THIS AREA BUT NEAR 3 HOURS IF
NOT EXCEEDING THAT DURATION SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED WARNING AND UPGRADE THE WATCH AREA TO A WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  44  75  44  86 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  46  76  47  87 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     87  48  77  49  89 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     88  47  79  52  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  50  79  53  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   88  50  77  53  89 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    89  49  79  54  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  56  79  49  89 /  50  40   0   0   0
SPUR          87  53  80  53  92 /  30  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  59  80  53  94 /  30  30   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

07/93







000
FXUS64 KAMA 230849
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                88  45  75  48  87 /  30   5   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  84  47  77  47  85 /  50  30   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              84  42  74  40  83 /   5  10   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  87  49  78  52  88 /  30  10   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              89  45  78  49  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  89  45  76  50  87 /  20   5   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               86  52  78  51  88 /  40  20   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 86  41  75  41  85 /   5   5   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  89  45  77  43  86 /  30  20   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                88  45  75  47  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                83  50  76  48  84 /  50  30   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   85  48  75  53  84 /  40  10   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                86  53  78  51  86 /  50  30   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              90  56  79  52  88 /  40  30   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/19






000
FXUS64 KAMA 230849
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. ONE OF THE KEY COMPONENTS TO WHERE EACH TYPE OF
WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDS ON WHERE A WEAK DRYLINE SETS UP TODAY. WEST
OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PREVAIL, WHILE EAST OF IT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING THEIR DEW POINT VALUES
THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THEM WANT TO BRING IN 60F DEW POINTS INTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. BELIEVE THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC BASED
ON CURRENT DEW POINT VALUES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, MORE
LIKELY HIGHEST DEW POINT VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH IS THE EROSION OF THE CAP TODAY, MOST MODELS
QUICKLY ERODE THE CAP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z THUS ALLOWING STORMS TO
FIRE OFF, THIS MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
HIGH/MID CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SLOW THIS. BEST CHANCE
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES AND
DEFINITELY INTO THE MAIN BODY OF OKLAHOMA. QUESTION IS FOR OUR AREA
WILL ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME TO BRING
STORMS TO THE PANHANDLES.

IF/WHEN THESE STORMS FORM THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH LCL
VALUES AROUND 7,000 TO 9,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN ADDITION
TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL MAKE TORNADO
FORMATION DIFFICULT IN THE PANHANDLES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. CAPE VALUES IN THE -10C TO -30C
LEVELS IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000
J/KG ALSO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK SHOULD REMAIN QUIET AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND WINDY FOR PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLES AS THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN. NEXT ROUND OF
INTERESTING WEATHER LOOKS TO SET UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A DRYLINE
COULD SET UP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED BY THIS
SYSTEM.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                88  45  75  48  87 /  30   5   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  84  47  77  47  85 /  50  30   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              84  42  74  40  83 /   5  10   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  87  49  78  52  88 /  30  10   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              89  45  78  49  88 /  10   5   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  89  45  76  50  87 /  20   5   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               86  52  78  51  88 /  40  20   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 86  41  75  41  85 /   5   5   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  89  45  77  43  86 /  30  20   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                88  45  75  47  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                83  50  76  48  84 /  50  30   0   0   5
PAMPA TX                   85  48  75  53  84 /  40  10   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                86  53  78  51  86 /  50  30   0   0   5
WELLINGTON TX              90  56  79  52  88 /  40  30   0   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...
     MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

15/19





000
FXUS64 KCRP 230838
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
338 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST
THURSDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS COMBINED WITH A
WEAK JET STREAK COULD HAVE CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE RIVER
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT BEFORE STRONG CAP WEAKENS AND ENDS ACTIVITY. JET
MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY AND COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN-MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. STILL WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA AREA
THURSDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...LOOKS TO BE WARM AND
HUMID...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. AM GENERALLY GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCEC FOR
SOUTHERN BAYS AND TONIGHT OVER THE GULFMEX AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE WATERS. FLOW WEAKENS ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS MOISTURE
AXIS STAYS INLAND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...RATHER ZONAL MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MINOR H5 VORT MAXES
ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS PROG TO
STALL ACROSS EWX CWA THURS NIGHT WITH ISO CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA. BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION
/SLIGHT CHANCE AT THAT/ WILL OCCUR SAT EVENING ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AS SLIGHTLY MORE POTENT H5 VORT MAX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AS 85KT H25 JET STREAK NOSES INTO THE AREA. ATTM CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIO GRANDE LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ
DEVELOPS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DROP BACK TO NON MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LACK OF FORCING AND DRYING
OF ATMOSPHERE OCCURS. VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH A THERMAL
TROUGH/QUASIDRYLINE EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS. HAVE GONE WELL
ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CLOSE TO ECX
GUIDANCE. A DRY COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY MORNING WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR
OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE /PWATS LOWERING TO AROUND 1/2 INCH/. VERY WARM
TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY/WED GIVEN STRONG SUN
ANGLE...DRY AIRMASS...AND VERY WARM H9 TEMPS. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND
OF GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FOR TUES/WED DUE SURROUNDING CWA
CONSISTENCY...BUT MAY NEED TO WARM TEMPS SOME IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  69  88  69  87  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  65  87  67  87  /  10  10  20  10  10
LAREDO            95  71  98  70  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  67  91  68  91  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          81  71  83  69  81  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           93  67  95  68  94  /  10  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  68  90  69  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  70  84  70  81  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KEWX 230837
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
337 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MOISTURE RETURN FROM DEEP SOUTH TX WILL FILL IN THROUGH AROUND
6000 FT THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECKS AT
SEVERAL LEVELS. GOOD MIXING TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO SIMILAR NUMBERS TO THAT OF
TUESDAY DESPITE THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LATE AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN THE BREAKING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NRN MEXICO. THE
STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT STRONGER CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE FINER RES MODELS TRACK THE
EVENING CELLS EASTWARD ALONG WITH A MOISTURE AXIS AND WEAK MID
LEVEL ENERGY THAT IS IN PHASE WITH A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MOISTURE AXIS BECOMES
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS THURSDAY...SO GOES THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DRIER AIR FILLING IN FROM
THE WEST...TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO GO UPWARD FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOL MOVES BACK DEEPER INLAND FRIDAY AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US INCREASES SURFACE
WINDS. THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS ARE SLOWING THE
SYSTEM...SO FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO SHOW MORE EMPHASIS ON
SUNDAY. THE TRENDS ALSO ARE SHOWING GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL FROM
DOWNSLOPING WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A SHIFT TOWARD THE
COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEN AFTER A FRONT ARRIVES BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS...
AS A LARGE DEEPENING UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  65  88  64  87 /  -   20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  64  88  63  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  64  89  65  88 /  -   20  20  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  64  88  62  87 /  -   20  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  68  96  68  94 /  20  20  10  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  65  87  63  86 /  -   20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  66  94  65  94 /  -   20  10  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  64  88  64  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  65  86  65  87 /  -   20  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  65  90  66  90 /  -   20  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  65  92  66  91 /  -   20  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18







000
FXUS64 KFWD 230836
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
336 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY WITH UPPER
HEIGHT FALLS FORECASTED TO COMMENCE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP WELL
WEST OF THE CWA AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LIKELY GIVEN THE UPPER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS. STORM MOTIONS TODAY SHOULD
BE IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AND ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
COULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
FORECASTED TO BE MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...INCREASING CIN THIS
EVENING WILL LIMIT THE PROGRESSION OF SURFACE BASED STORMS INTO
THE CWA...BUT ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING BEFORE STORMS SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE
MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE TONIGHT WILL BE ELEVATED STORMS...ROOTED
AROUND 10KFT. WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING INCREASING MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB. SEVERAL FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING QPF OVERNIGHT AND THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY
CAUSE. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR 7.5C/KM AND CANT RULE
OUT AN ELEVATED SEVERE STORM WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL. THE MID-
LEVELS WILL DRY AFTER 12Z...ENDING PRECIP CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED GIVEN LITTLE FORCING. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN CAPE VALUES NEAR 3500 J/KG. TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
TODAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S...VERSUS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S EXPECTED TODAY.

A SHORT DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY. THIS NEXT
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO...BUT
THE CURRENT FORECASTED TRACK OF THE CENTER WILL BE WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA. STORMS WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE DRYLINE ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL BE IN WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER...ELEVATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE...LIMITING
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

BY SUNDAY...THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE EAST AND THIS IS OUR
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE PUSHING
THE DRYLINE A LITTLE TOO QUICK. AT 12Z SUNDAY ITS FORECASTED
POSITION IS NEAR ABILENE AND BY 18Z IT IS FORECASTING THE DRYLINE
TO BE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS IS A COMMON PROBLEM WITH ITS
FORECASTS OF DRYLINES AND WILL HOLD ONTO POPS A BIT FARTHER WEST
THAN WHAT IT IS FORECASTING. TO COMPARE...THE ECMWF HAS THE DRYLINE
ALONG I-35 AND THE CANADIAN POSITIONS IT WEST OF I-35 AT 18Z
SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ELIMINATION OF THE CAP BY MID-
DAY SUNDAY. CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION FOR STORMS
THAT DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

A COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE MONDAY MORNING AND COOLER
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS AN OMEGA
BLOCK WHICH ALLOWS THE UPPER LOW TO STALL AND DEEPEN EAST OF
TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN NORTH FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
NEXT WEEK.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  67  83  60  87 /   0  30  10   0   0
WACO, TX              86  65  82  61  86 /   0  20  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             82  63  78  55  82 /   0  20  20   5   5
DENTON, TX            86  67  82  53  85 /   0  30  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          85  69  81  51  85 /   0  30  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            87  67  82  61  86 /   0  20  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           85  66  81  57  85 /   0  20  20   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         85  66  83  62  84 /   0  20  20   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            85  65  84  62  86 /   0  20  20   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  64  83  54  87 /   0  30  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /











000
FXUS64 KBRO 230530 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH AN INVERSION AT 5000 FEET...LLVL MOISTURE HAS NOT
BEEN ABLE TO FOCUS NEARER TO THE SFC. THUS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AREAWIDE. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN MINIMIZED THROUGH
MIDMORNING WHEN DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT.
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MINIMIZE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.
LIGHT SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS RETURN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...VERY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED OVER ZAPATA COUNTY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG
THE LAND BREEZE PRODUCED BY FALCON LAKE. HOWEVER... THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN JIM HOGG COUNTY
AS THE LAND BREEZE COLLIDED WITH THE SEABREEZE FRONT PUSHING WEST.
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING OVER WEBB COUNTY...HAVE
OPTED TO INDICATE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION OVER BOTH THESE COUNTIES
OF THE BRO CWFA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST ALREADY
ISSUED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS WERE
MADE TO INITIAL CONDITIONS AND THE FM230100 PERIOD BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING MFE...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE EAST AND
INCREASE MOMENTARILY. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL DEGRADE INTO MVFR TERRITORY AS CEILINGS LOWER SLIGHTLY
WHILE SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH H5 RIDGING ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDING AND TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LESSER MOISTURE AMOUNTS CONCENTRATED
BELOW 5KFT. ELEVATED DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCALES. RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY
HELP TRIGGER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRES TO THE
WEST...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THAT POTENTIAL CONVECTION TO MAKE
IT INTO THE RGV. MOSTLY CLOUDY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
PLAINS TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO
MODERATE AND EVEN BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE H5 RIDGE WILL
COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...WITH WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST... FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE U.S. 77 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 90S
FAR WEST...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DEW POINTS AND LOW TEMPS UP
A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BELOW THE CAP OR STABLE LAYER FOR THE
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THE NEXT TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND WELL TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DIFFLUENCE SPREADS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US...THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH NO MENTION OF POPS. CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN SEEING ANY OF THAT PRECIPITATION PENETRATING OUR CWA. THE
BOUNDARY MAY SINK DOWN INTO OUR AREA AT THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY HWY 281 AND EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS DAYS 6-7 SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW ATTM.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS... WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS THERE AND MOVES EAST...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
RESPONDING TO THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...AND BRIEF EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW
END ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST
INTO LATE WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS RISE TO
AROUND 6 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/51






000
FXUS64 KMAF 230524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours at all
southeast New Mexico and West Texas TAF sites.  A 45kt low level jet
has develop over the Permian Basin and will affect the area until
23/14Z or thereabouts before moving northeast of the region.
Surface winds will stay gusty from the south/southeast over the
Permian Basin as a result, but will include a low level wind shear
group at KMAF from 23/10z until 23/14Z when surface winds decouple.
MVFR ceilings will develop to the east of the area and attempt to
move into the Permian Basin.  Since the probability is low will not
include these lower ceilings at KMAF at this time, but will monitor.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline this
afternoon, but think these will stay mainly to the east of KFST and
KMAF.  Will also monitor for any changes to this assessment.  67

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 230524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours at all
southeast New Mexico and West Texas TAF sites.  A 45kt low level jet
has develop over the Permian Basin and will affect the area until
23/14Z or thereabouts before moving northeast of the region.
Surface winds will stay gusty from the south/southeast over the
Permian Basin as a result, but will include a low level wind shear
group at KMAF from 23/10z until 23/14Z when surface winds decouple.
MVFR ceilings will develop to the east of the area and attempt to
move into the Permian Basin.  Since the probability is low will not
include these lower ceilings at KMAF at this time, but will monitor.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline this
afternoon, but think these will stay mainly to the east of KFST and
KMAF.  Will also monitor for any changes to this assessment.  67

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KCRP 230517 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1217 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AM EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE WITH
MVFR CIGS AT KLRD AND KCRP...AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
KALI AND KVCT (FOG AND CIGS). LOOKING AT THE TIME HEIGHT
PLOTS...SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS END AOA 15Z...WITH SOME CIRRUS
COMING IN DURING THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST (OBVIOUSLY). WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN TAF AND GENERALLY SSE...
CONTINUING TIL ABOUT 24/02Z OR SO. CONVERSELY...KLRD WILL NOT HAVE
GUSTY WINDS TIL LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE TIME. COULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEFORE
END OF TERMINALS EASTERN TAFS...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
WILL HOLD OFF ON FORECASTING THIS. WILL LOOK AT IT AGAIN FOR 12Z
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY ALONG THE WEAKENING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. WEAKENING IN
THE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE
EAST BEHIND THE MORNING WEAK COLD FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
WITH MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE IN PLACE...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH A BIT OF STRATUS AS WELL TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KLRD AND KCRP FROM THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS...AND IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KALI AND KVCT DURING THE SAME
TIME. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  85  69  85  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          66  85  68  85  68  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  97  72  96  72  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             67  90  69  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  78  69  77  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  93  67  95  70  /  20  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        69  89  69  88  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  80  69  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 230517 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1217 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...AM EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE WITH
MVFR CIGS AT KLRD AND KCRP...AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
KALI AND KVCT (FOG AND CIGS). LOOKING AT THE TIME HEIGHT
PLOTS...SHOULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS END AOA 15Z...WITH SOME CIRRUS
COMING IN DURING THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST (OBVIOUSLY). WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN TAF AND GENERALLY SSE...
CONTINUING TIL ABOUT 24/02Z OR SO. CONVERSELY...KLRD WILL NOT HAVE
GUSTY WINDS TIL LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE TIME. COULD HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEFORE
END OF TERMINALS EASTERN TAFS...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
WILL HOLD OFF ON FORECASTING THIS. WILL LOOK AT IT AGAIN FOR 12Z
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY ALONG THE WEAKENING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. WEAKENING IN
THE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE
EAST BEHIND THE MORNING WEAK COLD FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
WITH MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE IN PLACE...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH A BIT OF STRATUS AS WELL TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KLRD AND KCRP FROM THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS...AND IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KALI AND KVCT DURING THE SAME
TIME. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  85  69  85  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          66  85  68  85  68  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  97  72  96  72  /  20  20  10  10  10
ALICE             67  90  69  90  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  78  69  77  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           66  93  67  95  70  /  20  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        69  89  69  88  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  80  69  79  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KHGX 230505
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1205 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSION.

&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO MATERIALIZE ALONG
THE COAST.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR OVER
INLAND TERMINALS DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO
MIN TEMP AND SKY GRIDS. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 WILL PROBABLY GET SOME DENSE
FOG BY SUNRISE AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY
MORNING. 43

&&

CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KIAH REACHED 87 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS YEAR AND THE WARMEST IT HAS BEEN
SINCE OCT 15 2013 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE WARMED TO 88 DEGREES.

WORKING ON A PNS FOR RAINFALL AS WELL. SOME INTERESTING NUMBERS TO
WHET YOUR APPETITE. KLBX IS SUFFERING A RAINFALL DEFECIT OF -14.68
INCHES SINCE NOV 1 2013 AND KHOU IS -10.00 INCHES BELOW NORMAL
SINCE NOV 1ST. RAINFALL ACROSS SE TX HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL EVERY
MONTH SINCE NOVEMBER. IMPACTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN MINOR AS AREA
RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR CAPACITY.  43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      64  84  65  85  66 /  10  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  84  66  84  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  79  68  78  69 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...44




000
FXUS64 KEWX 230449 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1149 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A MORE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW END MVFR CIGS
BEGINNING 10-11Z ALONG I-35...WITH CIGS DELAYED UNTIL 12Z FOR
KDRT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH
VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE. DAYTIME HEATING
AND MIXING WILL SERVE TO SCATTER MVFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING. WE
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SCT-BKN DECK (VFR WITH BASES 4K-
6K AGL) OF CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR
KDRT FOR STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO
MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVING EAST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE. GIVEN THE MOST
RECENT MODELS GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW CONVECTION... WE HAVE
ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR KDRT BETWEEN 23/22-24/02.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO OUR AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER PUSHES EAST. FRONT RETREATS
TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL INDUCE LIFT AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THOSE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ON THE WESTERN TEXAS DRYLINE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW TAKES A FEW OF THESE INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR
BY MIDNIGHT. MODERATE CAPE AND LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH
THE HI-RES MODELS SHOWING SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH SOME REMNANT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT-TERM.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY
DRAGGING A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT TO NEAR I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP THE AIRMASS INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED POPS. HOWEVER...
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A
SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DRYLINE/FRONT RETREATS NORTHWEST
BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND STEERING FLOW
WILL TAKE THEM EAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO A LOW A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SURGES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL BE SPARSE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED
CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITIES. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35 DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  86  64  86  66 /   0  -   20  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  86  63  86  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  87  64  88  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  84  64  86  66 /   0  -   20  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  91  67  96  68 /   0  20  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  84  65  85  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  90  64  92  68 /   0  -   20  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  86  64  87  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  65  84  65 /   0  -   20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  88  65  90  67 /   0  -   20  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  88  65  90  67 /   0  -   20  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33









000
FXUS64 KLUB 230448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THIS TAF FORECAST. A WEAK
-TSRA OR -SHRA IS POSSIBLE...BUT VERY UNLIKELY...IN THE VICINITY
OF EITHER TERMINAL EARLY WED MORNING LIKELY HAVING MINIMAL
AVIATION IMPACTS. THERE WILL BE A SLIM CHANCE OF TSRA AT KLBB FROM
ABOUT 19 TO 21 UTC...AND A BETTER CHANCE AT KCDS FROM ABOUT 21 TO
05 UTC. TSRA COULD BE STRONG IN THE KCDS AREA. A STRONG LOW-LVL
JET EARLY WED MORNING WILL LEAD TO SOME CHOP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT OR SO
THROUGH ABOUT 12 UTC. SRLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE
OF A -TSRA OR -SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB AROUND 10 TO 14 UTC
AND AGAIN FROM ABOUT 19 TO 21 UTC. A BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA IS
EXPECTED AT KCDS AT THE TAIL-END OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG LOW-
LVL JET OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME CHOP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT OR
SO. SRLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY BECOME
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KTS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL SHIFT FROM NEAR ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST
PUSHES EASTWARD. INTERESTINGLY...THE TROUGH BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THOUGH DRAGS OUT TO A POSITIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INDICATED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LEAD WAVE MAY TRIGGER
SOME VIRGA ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERALL...INHERITED FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION BEING TO EXTEND CHC POPS
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXPLICIT MENTION OF SVR
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. DYNAMICAL FORCING SHOULD BE
RESPECTABLE WITH 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH 2-3 J/KG CAPE.
TORNADO POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS RATHER POOR WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS BEING THE RULE.

OUT WEST...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO CREATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE
ELECTED TO EXPAND FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND UPGRADED PARMER/LAMB COUNTIES TO RED FLAG
WARNING AS CONFIDENCE THERE IN MEETING THE 3 HOUR DURATION IS
BEST.

LONG TERM...
AFTER CONVECTION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY MAINLY ONLY HAVING THE EFFECT OF A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT BRING
ANYTHING BUT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING US BACK TO
THE MORE FAMILIAR DRY...WARM...AND WINDY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DIFFLUENCE AND POSSIBLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AT LEAST ON SATURDAY WHEN
APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION MAY
CLIP THE ROLLING PLAINS IF THIS SYSTEM DOES MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS
MODELS CURRENTLY PROG WITH DEEPLY MIXED AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. FURTHERMORE...GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...IN ALL LIKELIHOOD FIRE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AT LEAST FOR AREAS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT 850MB TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW 0C WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE. THE LAST TIME
THIS OCCURRED...MODELS WERE FAIRLY ACCURATE WITH THE FREEZE
POTENTIAL THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  84  45  75  44 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         54  85  47  76  47 /   0  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  86  49  77  49 /   0  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     56  86  48  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  87  51  79  53 /   0  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   58  85  51  77  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    57  86  48  79  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  88  58  79  49 /   0  50  40   0   0
SPUR          58  87  54  80  53 /   0  30  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     61  89  60  80  53 /   0  40  40   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ022-028-033-034-039-040.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-027.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS64 KFWD 230433
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1133 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY EAST OF NORTH TEXAS.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE STEADILY EAST OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTION WILL APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND A FEW STORMS MAY REACH THE METROPLEX
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORMS MAY BE WEAKENING BY THEN
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STOUT CAP...AND IT IS STILL NOT CERTAIN
IF THEY WILL SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER FOR DALLAS-
FORT WORTH AREA TAF SITES. IT MAY JUST DEPEND ON HOW ORGANIZED
CONVECTION BECOMES. FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE VCTS IN THE
EXTENDED DFW TAF AFTER GETTING A LOOK AT BOTH NAM AND GFS MOS
GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATE A DECENT CHANCE OF STORMS SURVIVING THE
CAP LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE DFW TRACON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE SYSTEM.

30

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/
WITH MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT...IT WAS A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE RIDGE AXES WILL SOON PASS EAST OF THE
AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM NOW OVER CALIFORNIA SWINGS INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET EXITS THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LEE TROUGHING
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RAPIDLY CREATE A DRYLINE
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG
WHICH THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A
TENDENCY TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY...BUT
THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE WELL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS BY NIGHTFALL
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL BE ENTERING AN AREA OF
INCREASING CIN WITH A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL SKIRT THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MAY
HELP MAINTAIN AT LEAST ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL TIME
OF DAY FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT WITH A 30- TO 40-KT LLJ BENEATH
CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THERE MAY BE SOME UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING LARGE
HAIL. REGARDLESS...3RD-PERIOD POPS ARE LOW AND EMPHASIZE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE INTO NORTH
TEXAS. THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS HAVE THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE EAST OF
OUR AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW-
END POPS IN THE FAR EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
ENTER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AS IT
EMERGES FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE FEATURE BOTH STRETCHES VERTICALLY AND
MOVES POLEWARD. THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY IS RELATED TO HOW MUCH
ENERGY IS AVAILABLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...A DRYLINE TO OUR WEST (BUT LIKELY CLOSER) MAY AGAIN
FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT COULD APPROACH SATURDAY EVENING.
WITH A VIGOROUS 40- TO 50-KT LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM AS FAR NORTH AS KANSAS MAY BE ABLE TO CONGEAL INTO
A NOCTURNAL MCS THAT COULD FIND ITS WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL THEN MEANDER TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY NEXT
WEEK...AND EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IT COULD BECOME A CUT-
OFF. THE 12Z GFS HAS REDUCED THE AMPLITUDE OF BOTH THE BLOCKING
HIGH IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS (AS COMPARED TO THE 06Z SOLUTION)...BUT THE CUT-OFF
REMAINS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...IT TOO
HAS FULL-LATITUDE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR DROUGHT-STRICKEN TEXAS AS THIS WILL SHUT-OFF
THE TYPICAL SPRING STORM MECHANISMS. CPC 6-10DAY AND 8-14DAY
OUTLOOKS (ENCOMPASSING APR 28 - MAY 6) SHOW AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  83  65  83  61 /   0   0  20  10   5
WACO, TX              59  84  64  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             55  79  62  79  55 /   0   0  20  20   5
DENTON, TX            57  82  65  82  55 /   0   0  30  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          56  81  65  81  54 /   0   0  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            62  83  66  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
TERRELL, TX           58  82  63  81  59 /   0   0  20  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         60  83  63  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  84  64  84  63 /   0   0  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  62  84  57 /   0   0  30  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/92






000
FXUS64 KSJT 230432
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1130 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue through the night at all terminals.
There is a slight chance of late afternoon/evening thunderstorms
primarily over the northern sections of West central Texas
associated with a dryline that will move across the area. Have only
included a mention of storms over KABI for this evening at this
time. A stratus deck is expected to move over the southern terminals
by early morning resulting in MVFR conditions for several hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue over all terminals through tonight.
Stratus will move into the area from the south and lower the
southern terminal ceilings to MVFR by sunrise tomorrow.  Ceilings
over the southern terminals will lift to VFR by mid-morning.
Surface winds will increase in speed from the south by mid-morning,
gusting from the south around 25 knots at the northern terminals
and around 20 knots at the southern terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

The main concern in the short term is the potential for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, some possibly severe.
A large upper level trough across the West Coast of the United
States, and will approach the Plains late Wednesday. Surface
moisture will be on the increase tonight ahead of this feature, with
dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak. A
dryline will sharpen just west of our area by late afternoon, with
an increasingly unstable atmosphere ahead of the dryline. Steep
lapse rates, modest 0-6 KM bulk shear values, and SBCAPE values of
1000-2000 J/KG will be present across much of the area. I expect
isolated thunderstorms to initiate just west of our area by late
afternoon, then increase in coverage and slowly move east or
northeast. A few supercells will be possible, with large hail and
damaging winds being the main threats. For now I have kept PoPs in
the chance category, but these may need to be bumped up slightly if
coverage looks to be greater than what is currently anticipated.

Low temperatures overnight will remain above normal, generally in
the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs on will once again be above seasonal
normals, in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Still looks like the chances for storms will expand across the area
during the Wednesday evening time frame, reaching towards San Angelo
and Abilene. The scattered storms already in the forecast looks
pretty good, but given the expected CAPE and shear, will go ahead
and mention the possibility of severe.

Weak cold front drops into the area for Thursday, bringing as much
as anything a slightly drier air mass to the area. However, front
doesnt make it very far and a return of south winds to the area will
quickly bring the low level moisture back into West Central Texas.

An approaching potent upper level low will drop into the southern
Rockies by early Saturday, with a negatively tilted trough axis
moving across the Southern Plains by Saturday afternoon. This upper
support combined with CAPE values well above 3000 j/kg will set up a
potential busy severe weather period late Saturday afternoon and
evening. Always a little hard to tell exactly how widespread it will
be on the southern edge where the cap usually is a factor. But have
increased the rain chances for the period. Saturday evening
certainly looks to the have the potential to be very active!

Rest of the forecast looks fairly quiet, as a much drier air mass
settles into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  87  63  85  59 /   0  20  30   5   5
San Angelo  59  92  64  89  60 /   0  20  30   5   5
Junction  60  87  64  89  63 /   0  10  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels/07










000
FXUS64 KAMA 230423
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1123 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
14Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 00Z TO 02Z
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF
SITES BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z THURSDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASING TO AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE DALHART TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES...BUT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. ALSO...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 15Z
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY NOT THINKING THAT AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY AS NOT EXPECTED WIND GUSTS TO REACH OR
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED IN CASE ONE IS NEEDED LATER.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 230423
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1123 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
14Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 00Z TO 02Z
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF
SITES BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z THURSDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASING TO AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE DALHART TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES...BUT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. ALSO...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 15Z
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY NOT THINKING THAT AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY AS NOT EXPECTED WIND GUSTS TO REACH OR
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED IN CASE ONE IS NEEDED LATER.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 230423
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1123 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
14Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 00Z TO 02Z
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF
SITES BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z THURSDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASING TO AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE DALHART TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES...BUT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. ALSO...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 15Z
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY NOT THINKING THAT AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY AS NOT EXPECTED WIND GUSTS TO REACH OR
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED IN CASE ONE IS NEEDED LATER.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KAMA 230423
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1123 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY...THEN WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
14Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 00Z TO 02Z
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF
SITES BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z THURSDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASING TO AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE DALHART TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES...BUT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. ALSO...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 15Z
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY NOT THINKING THAT AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY AS NOT EXPECTED WIND GUSTS TO REACH OR
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED IN CASE ONE IS NEEDED LATER.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KCRP 230244 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
944 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY ALONG THE WEAKENING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. WEAKENING IN
THE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE
EAST BEHIND THE MORNING WEAK COLD FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
WITH MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE IN PLACE...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH A BIT OF STRATUS AS WELL TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KLRD AND KCRP FROM THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS...AND IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KALI AND KVCT DURING THE SAME
TIME. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  69  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          65  84  66  85  68  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            71  95  70  97  72  /  10  10  20  20  10
ALICE             66  87  67  90  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  81  70  78  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  93  66  93  67  /  10  10  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        67  86  69  89  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       68  78  70  80  69  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 230244 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
944 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
BRUSH COUNTRY ALONG THE WEAKENING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. WEAKENING IN
THE WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE
EAST BEHIND THE MORNING WEAK COLD FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
WITH MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE IN PLACE...AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH A BIT OF STRATUS AS WELL TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KLRD AND KCRP FROM THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS...AND IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KALI AND KVCT DURING THE SAME
TIME. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  69  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          65  84  66  85  68  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            71  95  70  97  72  /  10  10  20  20  10
ALICE             66  87  67  90  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  81  70  78  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  93  66  93  67  /  10  10  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        67  86  69  89  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       68  78  70  80  69  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM





000
FXUS64 KBRO 230216 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
916 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...VERY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED OVER ZAPATA COUNTY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG
THE LAND BREEZE PRODUCED BY FALCON LAKE. HOWEVER... THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN JIM HOGG COUNTY
AS THE LAND BREEZE COLLIDED WITH THE SEABREEZE FRONT PUSHING WEST.
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NOW DEVELOPING OVER WEBB COUNTY...HAVE
OPTED TO INDICATE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION OVER BOTH THESE COUNTIES
OF THE BRO CWFA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST ALREADY
ISSUED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS WERE
MADE TO INITIAL CONDITIONS AND THE FM230100 PERIOD BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING MFE...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE EAST AND
INCREASE MOMENTARILY. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL DEGRADE INTO MVFR TERRITORY AS CEILINGS LOWER SLIGHTLY
WHILE SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH H5 RIDGING ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDING AND TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LESSER MOISTURE AMOUNTS CONCENTRATED
BELOW 5KFT. ELEVATED DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCALES. RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY
HELP TRIGGER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRES TO THE
WEST...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THAT POTENTIAL CONVECTION TO MAKE
IT INTO THE RGV. MOSTLY CLOUDY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
PLAINS TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO
MODERATE AND EVEN BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE H5 RIDGE WILL
COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...WITH WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST... FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE U.S. 77 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 90S
FAR WEST...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DEW POINTS AND LOW TEMPS UP
A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BELOW THE CAP OR STABLE LAYER FOR THE
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THE NEXT TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND WELL TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DIFFLUENCE SPREADS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US...THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH NO MENTION OF POPS. CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN SEEING ANY OF THAT PRECIPITATION PENETRATING OUR CWA. THE
BOUNDARY MAY SINK DOWN INTO OUR AREA AT THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY HWY 281 AND EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS DAYS 6-7 SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW ATTM.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS... WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS THERE AND MOVES EAST...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
RESPONDING TO THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...AND BRIEF EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW
END ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST
INTO LATE WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS RISE TO
AROUND 6 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KHGX 230127
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
827 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO
MIN TEMP AND SKY GRIDS. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR LATER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 WILL PROBABLY GET SOME DENSE
FOG BY SUNRISE AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY
MORNING. 43

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KIAH REACHED 87 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS YEAR AND THE WARMEST IT HAS BEEN
SINCE OCT 15 2013 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE WARMED TO 88 DEGREES.

WORKING ON A PNS FOR RAINFALL AS WELL. SOME INTERESTING NUMBERS TO
WHET YOUR APPETITE. KLBX IS SUFFERING A RAINFALL DEFECIT OF -14.68
INCHES SINCE NOV 1 2013 AND KHOU IS -10.00 INCHES BELOW NORMAL
SINCE NOV 1ST. RAINFALL ACROSS SE TX HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL EVERY
MONTH SINCE NOVEMBER. IMPACTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN MINOR AS AREA
RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR CAPACITY.  43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BUT
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS BECAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE
AROUND THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER
NIGHT UNTIL THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11-13Z. THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. 44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NNE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE WEAK (BUT BRIEF)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP TO KEEP
THE WX FOR SE TX GENERALLY DRY/QUIET THE NEXT FEW OF DAYS. BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN POSSIBLE (MAINLY OVER THE NRN COUNTIES) BY
THURS AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW. NOT EXPECTING FROPA
FOR MOST (IF ANY) OF OUR CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN BECAUSE OF IT. THIS COULD GIVE US A FEW
MORE DAYS OF GENERALLY DRY/QUIET WX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BIG CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LARGER SCALE PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL/ERN U.S.. A VERY BROAD/DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE CENT-
RAL PLAINS SUNDAY BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THRU
THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM PROGGED TO PUSH A POSSIBLE STRONG-FOR-THIS
-TIME-OF-YEAR COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION LATE MON/TUES. SLGT CHC
TO CHC POPS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE FRONT STARTING LATE SAT WITH
STRONG WAA SETTING UP. BEST POPS SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
MON NIGHT/TUE. THEN COOL/DRY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
PROGGED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE
STILL TALKING FCSTS FOR DAYS 7/8 AND BEYOND. 41

MARINE...
YET AGAIN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE WIND
FORECAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SE
TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WED NIGHT BUT WILL BE BORDERLINE
SCEC CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WHICH MAY BUILD SEAS TO MORE MODERATE LEVELS. CAUTION FLAGS
MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME BUT OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ANY OTHER MARINE HAZARDS.

39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  85  64  84  65 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              64  85  65  84  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  79  68  79  68 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43




000
FXUS64 KHGX 230006
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
706 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BUT
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS BECAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE
AROUND THE FRONT IS FAIRLY STABLE. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER
NIGHT UNTIL THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11-13Z. THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NNE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE WEAK (BUT BRIEF)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP TO KEEP
THE WX FOR SE TX GENERALLY DRY/QUIET THE NEXT FEW OF DAYS. BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN POSSIBLE (MAINLY OVER THE NRN COUNTIES) BY
THURS AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW. NOT EXPECTING FROPA
FOR MOST (IF ANY) OF OUR CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN BECAUSE OF IT. THIS COULD GIVE US A FEW
MORE DAYS OF GENERALLY DRY/QUIET WX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BIG CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LARGER SCALE PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL/ERN U.S.. A VERY BROAD/DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE CENT-
RAL PLAINS SUNDAY BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THRU
THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM PROGGED TO PUSH A POSSIBLE STRONG-FOR-THIS
-TIME-OF-YEAR COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION LATE MON/TUES. SLGT CHC
TO CHC POPS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE FRONT STARTING LATE SAT WITH
STRONG WAA SETTING UP. BEST POPS SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
MON NIGHT/TUE. THEN COOL/DRY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
PROGGED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE
STILL TALKING FCSTS FOR DAYS 7/8 AND BEYOND. 41

MARINE...
YET AGAIN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE WIND
FORECAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SE
TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WED NIGHT BUT WILL BE BORDERLINE
SCEC CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WHICH MAY BUILD SEAS TO MORE MODERATE LEVELS. CAUTION FLAGS
MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME BUT OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ANY OTHER MARINE HAZARDS.

39


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      61  85  64  84  65 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  85  65  84  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  79  68  79  68 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...44




000
FXUS64 KCRP 222354
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
654 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KLRD AND KCRP FROM THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS...AND IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KALI AND KVCT DURING THE SAME
TIME. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  69  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          65  84  66  85  68  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            71  95  70  97  72  /  10  10  20  20  10
ALICE             66  87  67  90  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  81  70  78  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  93  66  93  67  /  10  10  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        67  86  69  89  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       68  78  70  80  69  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 222354
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
654 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN
THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KLRD AND KCRP FROM THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS...AND IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS AT KALI AND KVCT DURING THE SAME
TIME. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  69  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          65  84  66  85  68  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            71  95  70  97  72  /  10  10  20  20  10
ALICE             66  87  67  90  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  81  70  78  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  93  66  93  67  /  10  10  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        67  86  69  89  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       68  78  70  80  69  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION






000
FXUS64 KEWX 222349 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS TRANSITION TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO ALL
AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOW
END MVFR CIGS BEGINNING 10-11Z ALONG I-35 WITH CIGS DELAYED UNTIL
ROUGHLY 12Z FOR KDRT. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WITH VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 3-5 MILE
RANGE. DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING WILL SCATTER MVFR CIGS BY LATE
MORNING... WITH A SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 6K AGL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LATE IN THE PERIOD... CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE KDRT AREA. FOR NOW... CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA AT THE TERMINAL BEFORE 24/00Z IS LOW AND WILL NOT MENTION.
WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAY OPT TO ADD A PROB30 GROUP IN THE
06Z FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO OUR AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER PUSHES EAST. FRONT RETREATS
TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL INDUCE LIFT AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THOSE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ON THE WESTERN TEXAS DRYLINE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW TAKES A FEW OF THESE INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR
BY MIDNIGHT. MODERATE CAPE AND LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH
THE HI-RES MODELS SHOWING SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH SOME REMNANT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT-TERM.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY
DRAGGING A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT TO NEAR I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP THE AIRMASS INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED POPS. HOWEVER...
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A
SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DRYLINE/FRONT RETREATS NORTHWEST
BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND STEERING FLOW
WILL TAKE THEM EAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO A LOW A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SURGES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL BE SPARSE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED
CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITIES. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35 DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  86  64  86  66 /   0  -   20  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  86  63  86  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  87  64  88  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  84  64  86  66 /   0  -   20  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  91  67  96  68 /   0  20  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  84  65  85  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  90  64  92  68 /   0  -   20  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  86  64  87  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  65  84  65 /   0  -   20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  88  65  90  67 /   0  -   20  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  88  65  90  67 /   0  -   20  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33







000
FXUS64 KBRO 222338 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
638 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TAFS WERE
MADE TO INITIAL CONDITIONS AND THE FM230100 PERIOD BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO...THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING MFE...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE EAST AND
INCREASE MOMENTARILY. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL DEGRADE INTO MVFR TERRITORY AS CEILINGS LOWER SLIGHTLY
WHILE SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH H5 RIDGING ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDING AND TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LESSER MOISTURE AMOUNTS CONCENTRATED
BELOW 5KFT. ELEVATED DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCALES. RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY
HELP TRIGGER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRES TO THE
WEST...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THAT POTENTIAL CONVECTION TO MAKE
IT INTO THE RGV. MOSTLY CLOUDY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
PLAINS TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO
MODERATE AND EVEN BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE H5 RIDGE WILL
COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...WITH WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST... FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE U.S. 77 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 90S
FAR WEST...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DEW POINTS AND LOW TEMPS UP
A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BELOW THE CAP OR STABLE LAYER FOR THE
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THE NEXT TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND WELL TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DIFFLUENCE SPREADS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US...THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH NO MENTION OF POPS. CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN SEEING ANY OF THAT PRECIPITATION PENETRATING OUR CWA. THE
BOUNDARY MAY SINK DOWN INTO OUR AREA AT THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY HWY 281 AND EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS DAYS 6-7 SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW ATTM.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS... WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS THERE AND MOVES EAST...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
RESPONDING TO THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...AND BRIEF EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW
END ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST
INTO LATE WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS RISE TO
AROUND 6 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV





000
FXUS64 KLUB 222337
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
637 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE
OF A -TSRA OR -SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB AROUND 10 TO 14 UTC
AND AGAIN FROM ABOUT 19 TO 21 UTC. A BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA IS
EXPECTED AT KCDS AT THE TAIL-END OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG LOW-
LVL JET OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME CHOP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT OR
SO. SRLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY BECOME
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KTS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL SHIFT FROM NEAR ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST
PUSHES EASTWARD. INTERESTINGLY...THE TROUGH BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THOUGH DRAGS OUT TO A POSITIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INDICATED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LEAD WAVE MAY TRIGGER
SOME VIRGA ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERALL...INHERITED FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION BEING TO EXTEND CHC POPS
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXPLICIT MENTION OF SVR
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. DYNAMICAL FORCING SHOULD BE
RESPECTABLE WITH 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH 2-3 J/KG CAPE.
TORNADO POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS RATHER POOR WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS BEING THE RULE.

OUT WEST...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO CREATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE
ELECTED TO EXPAND FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND UPGRADED PARMER/LAMB COUNTIES TO RED FLAG
WARNING AS CONFIDENCE THERE IN MEETING THE 3 HOUR DURATION IS
BEST.

LONG TERM...
AFTER CONVECTION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY MAINLY ONLY HAVING THE EFFECT OF A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT BRING
ANYTHING BUT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING US BACK TO
THE MORE FAMILIAR DRY...WARM...AND WINDY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DIFFLUENCE AND POSSIBLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AT LEAST ON SATURDAY WHEN
APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION MAY
CLIP THE ROLLING PLAINS IF THIS SYSTEM DOES MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS
MODELS CURRENTLY PROG WITH DEEPLY MIXED AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. FURTHERMORE...GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...IN ALL LIKELIHOOD FIRE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AT LEAST FOR AREAS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT 850MB TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW 0C WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE. THE LAST TIME
THIS OCCURRED...MODELS WERE FAIRLY ACCURATE WITH THE FREEZE
POTENTIAL THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  84  45  75  44 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         54  85  47  76  47 /   0  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  86  49  77  49 /   0  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     56  86  48  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  87  51  79  53 /   0  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   58  85  51  77  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    57  86  48  79  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  88  58  79  49 /   0  50  40   0   0
SPUR          58  87  54  80  53 /   0  30  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     61  89  60  80  53 /   0  40  40   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ022-028-033-034-039-040.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-027.

&&

$$

33







000
FXUS64 KAMA 222335
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE DALHART TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES...BUT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. ALSO...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 15Z
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY NOT THINKING THAT AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY AS NOT EXPECTED WIND GUSTS TO REACH OR
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED IN CASE ONE IS NEEDED LATER.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 222335
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE DALHART TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES...BUT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. ALSO...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 15Z
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY NOT THINKING THAT AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY AS NOT EXPECTED WIND GUSTS TO REACH OR
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED IN CASE ONE IS NEEDED LATER.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 222335
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE DALHART TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES...BUT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. ALSO...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 15Z
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY NOT THINKING THAT AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY AS NOT EXPECTED WIND GUSTS TO REACH OR
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED IN CASE ONE IS NEEDED LATER.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11/99





000
FXUS64 KAMA 222335
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE DALHART TAF SITE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE THREE TAF SITES...BUT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. ALSO...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE WINDS
UP TONIGHT AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z TO 15Z
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY NOT THINKING THAT AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY AS NOT EXPECTED WIND GUSTS TO REACH OR
EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED IN CASE ONE IS NEEDED LATER.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

11/99





000
FXUS64 KFWD 222326
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
626 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
QUIET WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NARROWS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SPRING STORM SYSTEM.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE REGION BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG A DRYLINE AS LIFT INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN ITSELF
AS IT APPROACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT
APPEARS THAT ANY STORMS THAT MAKE IT TO THE METROPLEX OR TO WACO
WOULD OCCUR AFTER 24/06Z. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL INCLUDE TS...BUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE IT WOULD BE BEYOND THE TAF
PERIOD.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/
WITH MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT...IT WAS A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE RIDGE AXES WILL SOON PASS EAST OF THE
AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM NOW OVER CALIFORNIA SWINGS INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET EXITS THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LEE TROUGHING
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RAPIDLY CREATE A DRYLINE
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG
WHICH THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A
TENDENCY TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY...BUT
THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE WELL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS BY NIGHTFALL
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL BE ENTERING AN AREA OF
INCREASING CIN WITH A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL SKIRT THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MAY
HELP MAINTAIN AT LEAST ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL TIME
OF DAY FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT WITH A 30- TO 40-KT LLJ BENEATH
CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THERE MAY BE SOME UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING LARGE
HAIL. REGARDLESS...3RD-PERIOD POPS ARE LOW AND EMPHASIZE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE INTO NORTH
TEXAS. THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS HAVE THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE EAST OF
OUR AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW-
END POPS IN THE FAR EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
ENTER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AS IT
EMERGES FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE FEATURE BOTH STRETCHES VERTICALLY AND
MOVES POLEWARD. THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY IS RELATED TO HOW MUCH
ENERGY IS AVAILABLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...A DRYLINE TO OUR WEST (BUT LIKELY CLOSER) MAY AGAIN
FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT COULD APPROACH SATURDAY EVENING.
WITH A VIGOROUS 40- TO 50-KT LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM AS FAR NORTH AS KANSAS MAY BE ABLE TO CONGEAL INTO
A NOCTURNAL MCS THAT COULD FIND ITS WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL THEN MEANDER TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY NEXT
WEEK...AND EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IT COULD BECOME A CUT-
OFF. THE 12Z GFS HAS REDUCED THE AMPLITUDE OF BOTH THE BLOCKING
HIGH IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS (AS COMPARED TO THE 06Z SOLUTION)...BUT THE CUT-OFF
REMAINS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...IT TOO
HAS FULL-LATITUDE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR DROUGHT-STRICKEN TEXAS AS THIS WILL SHUT-OFF
THE TYPICAL SPRING STORM MECHANISMS. CPC 6-10DAY AND 8-14DAY
OUTLOOKS (ENCOMPASSING APR 28 - MAY 6) SHOW AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  83  65  83  61 /   0   0  20  10   5
WACO, TX              59  84  64  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             55  79  62  79  55 /   0   0  20  20   5
DENTON, TX            57  82  65  82  55 /   0   0  30  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          56  81  65  81  54 /   0   0  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            62  83  66  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
TERRELL, TX           58  82  63  81  59 /   0   0  20  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         60  83  63  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  84  64  84  63 /   0   0  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  62  84  57 /   0   0  30  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSJT 222316
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
615 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue over all terminals through tonight.
Stratus will move into the area from the south and lower the
southern terminal ceilings to MVFR by sunrise tomorrow.  Ceilings
over the southern terminals will lift to VFR by mid-morning.
Surface winds will increase in speed from the south by mid-morning,
gusting from the south around 25 knots at the northern terminals
and around 20 knots at the southern terminals.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

The main concern in the short term is the potential for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, some possibly severe.
A large upper level trough across the West Coast of the United
States, and will approach the Plains late Wednesday. Surface
moisture will be on the increase tonight ahead of this feature, with
dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak. A
dryline will sharpen just west of our area by late afternoon, with
an increasingly unstable atmosphere ahead of the dryline. Steep
lapse rates, modest 0-6 KM bulk shear values, and SBCAPE values of
1000-2000 J/KG will be present across much of the area. I expect
isolated thunderstorms to initiate just west of our area by late
afternoon, then increase in coverage and slowly move east or
northeast. A few supercells will be possible, with large hail and
damaging winds being the main threats. For now I have kept PoPs in
the chance category, but these may need to be bumped up slightly if
coverage looks to be greater than what is currently anticipated.

Low temperatures overnight will remain above normal, generally in
the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs on will once again be above seasonal
normals, in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Still looks like the chances for storms will expand across the area
during the Wednesday evening time frame, reaching towards San Angelo
and Abilene. The scattered storms already in the forecast looks
pretty good, but given the expected CAPE and shear, will go ahead
and mention the possibility of severe.

Weak cold front drops into the area for Thursday, bringing as much
as anything a slightly drier air mass to the area. However, front
doesnt make it very far and a return of south winds to the area will
quickly bring the low level moisture back into West Central Texas.

An approaching potent upper level low will drop into the southern
Rockies by early Saturday, with a negatively tilted trough axis
moving across the Southern Plains by Saturday afternoon. This upper
support combined with CAPE values well above 3000 j/kg will set up a
potential busy severe weather period late Saturday afternoon and
evening. Always a little hard to tell exactly how widespread it will
be on the southern edge where the cap usually is a factor. But have
increased the rain chances for the period. Saturday evening
certainly looks to the have the potential to be very active!

Rest of the forecast looks fairly quiet, as a much drier air mass
settles into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  87  63  85  59 /   0  20  30   5   5
San Angelo  59  92  64  89  60 /   0  20  30   5   5
Junction  60  87  64  89  63 /   0  10  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels/07








000
FXUS64 KMAF 222218
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
518 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Sfc flow will veer
overnight to SW and gusty by Wednesday afternoon in response to
leeside troughing north. Lastest NAM forecast soundings suggest CU
development Wednesday will be a struggle, and only expected late
at KMAF and KFST, w/bases 7-9 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Once again seeing convection developing in the mountains this
afternoon along a theta-e ridge axis that extends northwestward
from the Rio Grande. Not a lot of instability so should see this
activity end once we lose heating this evening. An upper level
trough will move into the Central Plains tomorrow, with increasing
westerly flow spreading dry air eastward and sharpening a dryline
across the central Permian Basin. Thunderstorms will fire along
and east of this dryline which will be roughly located a Lamesa to
Midland to Crane line. The greatest coverage will be in the
northeastern CWA though isolated storms will be possible all the
way to the Rio Grande. Shear and instability will be great enough
for any storms to become severe with the main threat being large
hail and strong winds.

The dryline will move eastward tomorrow night and a weak cold
front will move into the area spreading very dry across the
remainder of the CWA and ending rain chances on Friday. The front
will not make much progress south allowing for a return of gulf
moisture and another dryline will develop Saturday. Models are
also showing another upper trough digging into the four corners
region activating the dryline with another round of convection.
Unfortunately this dryline will be located in the eastern Permian
Basin with only a few locations like Big Spring and Snyder having
a decent chance of seeing rainfall. Perhaps later model runs will
pull this dryline further west but right now that looks doubtful.
This upper level trough will slow and deepen as it moves into the
northern plains, with increasing northwesterly flow allowing for
cooler air to filter south and bring more seasonal temps by early
next week.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline is still on track to develop across the central Permian
Basin tomorrow with very dry air located to the west. An upper
level trough will bring increasing westerly winds and critical
fire weather conditions are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains
and southeast New Mexico; thus have upgraded the watch to a Red
Flag Warning. The midnight shift will have to make make one last
determination as to whether the warning will need to be expanded
further east and south, but at this time winds are too marginal to
include in the warning. Winds will subside tomorrow night and a
weak cold front will bring lower winds on Thursday.

Westerly winds will increase once again Friday into the weekend
with more critical fire weather conditions expected for an even
larger portion of the area. This is too far out in the forecast to
issue a watch, but local fire personnel should be aware that the
weekend will not be favorable for prescribed burns.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KMAF 222218
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
518 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Sfc flow will veer
overnight to SW and gusty by Wednesday afternoon in response to
leeside troughing north. Lastest NAM forecast soundings suggest CU
development Wednesday will be a struggle, and only expected late
at KMAF and KFST, w/bases 7-9 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Once again seeing convection developing in the mountains this
afternoon along a theta-e ridge axis that extends northwestward
from the Rio Grande. Not a lot of instability so should see this
activity end once we lose heating this evening. An upper level
trough will move into the Central Plains tomorrow, with increasing
westerly flow spreading dry air eastward and sharpening a dryline
across the central Permian Basin. Thunderstorms will fire along
and east of this dryline which will be roughly located a Lamesa to
Midland to Crane line. The greatest coverage will be in the
northeastern CWA though isolated storms will be possible all the
way to the Rio Grande. Shear and instability will be great enough
for any storms to become severe with the main threat being large
hail and strong winds.

The dryline will move eastward tomorrow night and a weak cold
front will move into the area spreading very dry across the
remainder of the CWA and ending rain chances on Friday. The front
will not make much progress south allowing for a return of gulf
moisture and another dryline will develop Saturday. Models are
also showing another upper trough digging into the four corners
region activating the dryline with another round of convection.
Unfortunately this dryline will be located in the eastern Permian
Basin with only a few locations like Big Spring and Snyder having
a decent chance of seeing rainfall. Perhaps later model runs will
pull this dryline further west but right now that looks doubtful.
This upper level trough will slow and deepen as it moves into the
northern plains, with increasing northwesterly flow allowing for
cooler air to filter south and bring more seasonal temps by early
next week.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline is still on track to develop across the central Permian
Basin tomorrow with very dry air located to the west. An upper
level trough will bring increasing westerly winds and critical
fire weather conditions are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains
and southeast New Mexico; thus have upgraded the watch to a Red
Flag Warning. The midnight shift will have to make make one last
determination as to whether the warning will need to be expanded
further east and south, but at this time winds are too marginal to
include in the warning. Winds will subside tomorrow night and a
weak cold front will bring lower winds on Thursday.

Westerly winds will increase once again Friday into the weekend
with more critical fire weather conditions expected for an even
larger portion of the area. This is too far out in the forecast to
issue a watch, but local fire personnel should be aware that the
weekend will not be favorable for prescribed burns.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

27





000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222057
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
257 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TONIGHT TO GIVE US A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. ON WEDNESDAY AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL HELP GIVE US SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS NICE
WITH SUN AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON SATURDAY ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO BUILD UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE AIR AT
THE SURFACE IS RELATIVELY DRY SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A
STORM FORMED. IF ONE DOES GET GOING WE DO HAVE ENOUGH SHEER AND
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME
HAIL OR MORE LIKELY SOME STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE. BY LATE
EVENING THE DRY AIR FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE MOVED IN ENDING ANY
FURTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ON WEDNESDAY THE FIRST OF
TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH WINDS MIX DOWN OF STRONG WINDS TO GIVE US
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SO I`VE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WE WILL SEE A ZONAL FLOW WHICH WILL GIVE US NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...A NICE END TO THE WEEK.

THEN ON SATURDAY WE WILL SEE THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACH THE REGION. RIGHT NOW THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING WELL TIMED
TO BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT IN THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO GIVE US
SOME VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. RIGHT NOW IT IS LOOKING LIKE AT LEAST
WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND MAYBE EVEN HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS.
RIGHT NOW SATURDAY IS NOT LOOKING LIKE A VERY GOOD DAY TO BE
OUTSIDE. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WE WILL SEE A DRY BUT COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH
WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE AN
EXTENDED COOL PERIOD WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND A LARGE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE EXTENDED GFS HAS EL PASO IN THE MID 70`S
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
BEARISH ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60`S.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z-24/00Z...
SLGT RISK ISOLD CLD BLDUPS/CB/TSTM UNTIL 03Z MAINLY VCNTY MTNS N
SVC-ALM LINE (VRB30G40KT 6SM -TSRA BLDU BKN070CB). OTHERWISE WINDS
SSE-SSW 10G20KT SCT070 SCT120 SCT-BKN250. AFT 18Z WITH AN
APPROACHING UPR AIR TROUGH WINDS BECOMING SW 25-35 G 45KT 3-6 SM
BLDU. MDT TURBC OVR NR MTNS BLO 15K FT MSL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THESE STORMS WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH RAIN BUT HAVE
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH DRYING AND
WINDY WEATHER. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRYING OF FUELS TO PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS. AN EVEN STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
GENERATE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 63  86  60  82  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           54  84  53  80  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              54  84  52  78  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              55  83  52  77  52 /  20   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              42  59  36  54  42 /  20   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   56  80  53  76  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             50  75  41  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  51  82  47  78  47 /  10   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               53  80  48  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      63  86  58  80  58 /  20   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               50  81  46  82  48 /  20   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            61  90  56  86  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              53  79  52  74  52 /  20   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  59  85  54  81  55 /  20   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            58  85  52  80  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          62  82  62  78  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           46  82  45  78  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   49  81  46  77  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                60  81  53  77  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               54  85  53  80  51 /  20   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 46  70  42  66  44 /  20   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               42  71  37  67  41 /  20   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                42  69  37  65  42 /  20   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 44  75  40  72  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               56  78  51  73  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               54  78  50  75  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  73  37  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  49  77  42  73  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   40  76  38  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              37  74  35  72  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 51  76  47  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  56  82  52  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 53  81  48  78  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          56  83  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              50  79  46  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

BRICE/NOVLAN






000
FXUS64 KCRP 222052
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  69  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          65  84  66  85  68  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            71  95  70  97  72  /  10  10  20  20  10
ALICE             66  87  67  90  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  81  70  78  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  93  66  93  67  /  10  10  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        67  86  69  89  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       68  78  70  80  69  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 222052
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  69  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          65  84  66  85  68  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            71  95  70  97  72  /  10  10  20  20  10
ALICE             66  87  67  90  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  81  70  78  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  93  66  93  67  /  10  10  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        67  86  69  89  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       68  78  70  80  69  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 222052
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  69  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          65  84  66  85  68  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            71  95  70  97  72  /  10  10  20  20  10
ALICE             66  87  67  90  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  81  70  78  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  93  66  93  67  /  10  10  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        67  86  69  89  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       68  78  70  80  69  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 222052
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
352 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND FINALLY AND PROVIDING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING AND KCRP RADAR INDICATE
WEAK ECHO RETURNS OVER REFUGIO COUNTY. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND HI-RES
ARW MODEL SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KEEP HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
NEBRASKA TO WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE EAST WITH THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTED TO WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ELEVATED MOIST AND UNSTABLE LAYER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THU. IN ADDITION...A DRYLINE IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS/BRUSH COUNTRY WHICH WILL PROVIDE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA`S
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE CAP/CIN VALUES WILL BE
LOWEST...CAPE IS HIGHEST AND COINCIDES WITH THE HIGHEST PWATS.
FARTHER S AND E THE CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE VERY HIGH WITH LESS
INSTABILITY. WEAK RIDGING IS PROGD FOR FRI SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FCST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SATURDAY AND A POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE NW CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHC SPREADS E SAT NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES ON SUNDAY
AND MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DRYLINE MVG INTO THE W CWA. THIS SHIFTS THE
SLIGHT CHC TO THE E CWA AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE W
CWA. MODELS SHOW A TROF DVLPG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING S TX MON. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ON MON. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT AND
BARELY BRINGS IT INTO THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER AND
BRINGS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA BY TUE. GIVEN THAT BOTH MODELS PROG A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FEEL THE FRONT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MOVE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM W TO E
AS DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO S TX. AS FOR TEMPS...A WARMING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEN COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED BY TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  83  69  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          65  84  66  85  68  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            71  95  70  97  72  /  10  10  20  20  10
ALICE             66  87  67  90  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          68  81  70  78  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  93  66  93  67  /  10  10  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        67  86  69  89  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       68  78  70  80  69  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM






000
FXUS64 KLUB 222048
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL SHIFT FROM NEAR ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST
PUSHES EASTWARD. INTERESTINGLY...THE TROUGH BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THOUGH DRAGS OUT TO A POSITIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INDICATED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LEAD WAVE MAY TRIGGER
SOME VIRGA ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERALL...INHERITED FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION BEING TO EXTEND CHC POPS
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXPLICIT MENTION OF SVR
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. DYNAMICAL FORCING SHOULD BE
RESPECTABLE WITH 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH 2-3 J/KG CAPE.
TORNADO POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS RATHER POOR WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS BEING THE RULE.

OUT WEST...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO CREATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE
ELECTED TO EXPAND FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND UPGRADED PARMER/LAMB COUNTIES TO RED FLAG
WARNING AS CONFIDENCE THERE IN MEETING THE 3 HOUR DURATION IS
BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AFTER CONVECTION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY MAINLY ONLY HAVING THE EFFECT OF A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT BRING
ANYTHING BUT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING US BACK TO
THE MORE FAMILIAR DRY...WARM...AND WINDY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DIFFLUENCE AND POSSIBLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AT LEAST ON SATURDAY WHEN
APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION MAY
CLIP THE ROLLING PLAINS IF THIS SYSTEM DOES MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS
MODELS CURRENTLY PROG WITH DEEPLY MIXED AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. FURTHERMORE...GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...IN ALL LIKELIHOOD FIRE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AT LEAST FOR AREAS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT 850MB TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW 0C WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE. THE LAST TIME
THIS OCCURRED...MODELS WERE FAIRLY ACCURATE WITH THE FREEZE
POTENTIAL THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  84  45  75  44 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         54  85  47  76  47 /   0  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  86  49  77  49 /   0  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     56  86  48  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  87  51  79  53 /   0  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   58  85  51  77  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    57  86  48  79  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  88  58  79  49 /   0  50  40   0   0
SPUR          58  87  54  80  53 /   0  30  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     61  89  60  80  53 /   0  40  40   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ022-028-033-034-039-040.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-027.

&&

$$

26/01






000
FXUS64 KAMA 222046
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  87  45  75  48 /   5  30   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  58  83  44  76  47 /   5  50  30   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              55  83  42  73  40 /  20   5  10   0   0
BORGER TX                  59  86  48  77  52 /   5  30  10   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              61  88  45  77  49 /  10  10   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  59  88  45  76  50 /   5  20   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               54  85  52  77  51 /   0  40  20   0   0
DALHART TX                 55  85  40  74  41 /  20   5   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  58  88  45  78  43 /   5  30  20   0   0
HEREFORD TX                58  87  44  74  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                58  82  49  76  48 /   0  50  30   0   0
PAMPA TX                   58  84  47  74  53 /   0  40  10   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                56  85  53  76  51 /   0  50  30   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              55  89  56  77  52 /   0  40  30   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 222046
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  87  45  75  48 /   5  30   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  58  83  44  76  47 /   5  50  30   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              55  83  42  73  40 /  20   5  10   0   0
BORGER TX                  59  86  48  77  52 /   5  30  10   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              61  88  45  77  49 /  10  10   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  59  88  45  76  50 /   5  20   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               54  85  52  77  51 /   0  40  20   0   0
DALHART TX                 55  85  40  74  41 /  20   5   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  58  88  45  78  43 /   5  30  20   0   0
HEREFORD TX                58  87  44  74  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                58  82  49  76  48 /   0  50  30   0   0
PAMPA TX                   58  84  47  74  53 /   0  40  10   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                56  85  53  76  51 /   0  50  30   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              55  89  56  77  52 /   0  40  30   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 222046
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  87  45  75  48 /   5  30   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  58  83  44  76  47 /   5  50  30   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              55  83  42  73  40 /  20   5  10   0   0
BORGER TX                  59  86  48  77  52 /   5  30  10   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              61  88  45  77  49 /  10  10   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  59  88  45  76  50 /   5  20   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               54  85  52  77  51 /   0  40  20   0   0
DALHART TX                 55  85  40  74  41 /  20   5   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  58  88  45  78  43 /   5  30  20   0   0
HEREFORD TX                58  87  44  74  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                58  82  49  76  48 /   0  50  30   0   0
PAMPA TX                   58  84  47  74  53 /   0  40  10   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                56  85  53  76  51 /   0  50  30   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              55  89  56  77  52 /   0  40  30   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/03





000
FXUS64 KAMA 222046
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.  STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PANHANDLES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH
EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE TODAY AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE TROF ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST.

DRYLINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COLD FRONT
ARRIVES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOME SIGNS THAT DRYLINE COULD SET UP AGAIN SATURDAY.  HAVE RETAINED
LOW POPS IN EASTERN HALF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  BIGGER STORY
MAY BE WINDS WEST OF DRYLINE.  DYNAMIC SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS WELL.

COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT LEADS TO COOLER CONDTIONS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LINE FROM GUYMON TO AMARILLO. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  87  45  75  48 /   5  30   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  58  83  44  76  47 /   5  50  30   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              55  83  42  73  40 /  20   5  10   0   0
BORGER TX                  59  86  48  77  52 /   5  30  10   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              61  88  45  77  49 /  10  10   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  59  88  45  76  50 /   5  20   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               54  85  52  77  51 /   0  40  20   0   0
DALHART TX                 55  85  40  74  41 /  20   5   5   0   0
GUYMON OK                  58  88  45  78  43 /   5  30  20   0   0
HEREFORD TX                58  87  44  74  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                58  82  49  76  48 /   0  50  30   0   0
PAMPA TX                   58  84  47  74  53 /   0  40  10   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                56  85  53  76  51 /   0  50  30   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              55  89  56  77  52 /   0  40  30   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

05/03





000
FXUS64 KSJT 222042
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
340 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

The main concern in the short term is the potential for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, some possibly severe.
A large upper level trough across the West Coast of the United
States, and will approach the Plains late Wednesday. Surface
moisture will be on the increase tonight ahead of this feature, with
dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak. A
dryline will sharpen just west of our area by late afternoon, with
an increasingly unstable atmosphere ahead of the dryline. Steep
lapse rates, modest 0-6 KM bulk shear values, and SBCAPE values of
1000-2000 J/KG will be present across much of the area. I expect
isolated thunderstorms to initiate just west of our area by late
afternoon, then increase in coverage and slowly move east or
northeast. A few supercells will be possible, with large hail and
damaging winds being the main threats. For now I have kept PoPs in
the chance category, but these may need to be bumped up slightly if
coverage looks to be greater than what is currently anticipated.

Low temperatures overnight will remain above normal, generally in
the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs on will once again be above seasonal
normals, in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Still looks like the chances for storms will expand across the area
during the Wednesday evening time frame, reaching towards San Angelo
and Abilene. The scattered storms already in the forecast looks
pretty good, but given the expected CAPE and shear, will go ahead
and mention the possibility of severe.

Weak cold front drops into the area for Thursday, bringing as much
as anything a slightly drier air mass to the area. However, front
doesnt make it very far and a return of south winds to the area will
quickly bring the low level moisture back into West Central Texas.

An approaching potent upper level low will drop into the southern
Rockies by early Saturday, with a negatively tilted trough axis
moving across the Southern Plains by Saturday afternoon. This upper
support combined with CAPE values well above 3000 j/kg will set up a
potential busy severe weather period late Saturday afternoon and
evening. Always a little hard to tell exactly how widespread it will
be on the southern edge where the cap usually is a factor. But have
increased the rain chances for the period. Saturday evening
certainly looks to the have the potential to be very active!

Rest of the forecast looks fairly quiet, as a much drier air mass
settles into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  87  63  85  59 /   0  20  30   5   5
San Angelo  59  92  64  89  60 /   0  20  30   5   5
Junction  60  87  64  89  63 /   0  10  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels/07






000
FXUS64 KFWD 222042
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
342 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT...IT WAS A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE RIDGE AXES WILL SOON PASS EAST OF THE
AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM NOW OVER CALIFORNIA SWINGS INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET EXITS THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LEE TROUGHING
WILL BE INDUCED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RAPIDLY CREATE A DRYLINE
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...ALONG
WHICH THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A
TENDENCY TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY...BUT
THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE WELL WEST OF NORTH TEXAS BY NIGHTFALL
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL BE ENTERING AN AREA OF
INCREASING CINH WITH A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL SKIRT THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MAY
HELP MAINTAIN AT LEAST ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS NOT THE IDEAL TIME
OF DAY FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT WITH A 30- TO 40-KT LLJ BENEATH
CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THERE MAY BE SOME UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING LARGE
HAIL. REGARDLESS...3RD-PERIOD POPS ARE LOW AND EMPHASIZE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE INTO NORTH
TEXAS. THE GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS HAVE THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE EAST OF
OUR AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW-
END POPS IN THE FAR EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
ENTER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AS IT
EMERGES FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE FEATURE BOTH STRETCHES VERTICALLY AND
MOVES POLEWARD. THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY IS RELATED TO HOW MUCH
ENERGY IS AVAILABLE FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...A DRYLINE TO OUR WEST (BUT LIKELY CLOSER) MAY AGAIN
FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT COULD APPROACH SATURDAY EVENING.
WITH A VIGOROUS 40- TO 50-KT LLJ SATURDAY NIGHT...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM AS FAR NORTH AS KANSAS MAY BE ABLE TO CONGEAL INTO
A NOCTURNAL MCS THAT COULD FIND ITS WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL THEN MEANDER TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY NEXT
WEEK...AND EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IT COULD BECOME A CUT-
OFF. THE 12Z GFS HAS REDUCED THE AMPLITUDE OF BOTH THE BLOCKING
HIGH IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS (AS COMPARED TO THE 06Z SOLUTION)...BUT THE CUT-OFF
REMAINS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...IT TOO
HAS FULL-LATITUDE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR DROUGHT-STRICKEN TEXAS AS THIS WILL SHUT-OFF
THE TYPICAL SPRING STORM MECHANISMS. CPC 6-10DAY AND 8-14DAY
OUTLOOKS (ENCOMPASSING APR 28 - MAY 6) SHOW AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  61  83  65  83  61 /   0   0  20  10   5
WACO, TX              59  84  64  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             55  79  62  79  55 /   0   0  20  20   5
DENTON, TX            57  82  65  82  55 /   0   0  30  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          56  81  65  81  54 /   0   0  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            62  83  66  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
TERRELL, TX           58  82  63  81  59 /   0   0  20  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         60  83  63  83  62 /   0   0  20  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  84  64  84  63 /   0   0  20  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     57  84  62  84  57 /   0   0  30  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

69/25






000
FXUS64 KHGX 222039
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
339 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NNE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE WEAK (BUT BRIEF)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP TO KEEP
THE WX FOR SE TX GENERALLY DRY/QUIET THE NEXT FEW OF DAYS. BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN POSSIBLE (MAINLY OVER THE NRN COUNTIES) BY
THURS AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW. NOT EXPECTING FROPA
FOR MOST (IF ANY) OF OUR CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN BECAUSE OF IT. THIS COULD GIVE US A FEW
MORE DAYS OF GENERALLY DRY/QUIET WX FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A BIG CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LARGER SCALE PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL/ERN U.S.. A VERY BROAD/DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE CENT-
RAL PLAINS SUNDAY BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THRU
THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM PROGGED TO PUSH A POSSIBLE STRONG-FOR-THIS
-TIME-OF-YEAR COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION LATE MON/TUES. SLGT CHC
TO CHC POPS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE FRONT STARTING LATE SAT WITH
STRONG WAA SETTING UP. BEST POPS SHOULD BE WITH THE FRONT ITSELF
MON NIGHT/TUE. THEN COOL/DRY WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
PROGGED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE
STILL TALKING FCSTS FOR DAYS 7/8 AND BEYOND. 41

&&

.MARINE...
YET AGAIN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE WIND
FORECAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SE
TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WED NIGHT BUT WILL BE BORDERLINE
SCEC CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WHICH MAY BUILD SEAS TO MORE MODERATE LEVELS. CAUTION FLAGS
MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME BUT OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ANY OTHER MARINE HAZARDS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      61  85  64  84  65 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  85  65  84  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  79  68  79  68 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99




000
FXUS64 KEWX 222030
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO OUR AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER PUSHES EAST. FRONT RETREATS
TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL INDUCE LIFT AND COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THOSE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ON THE WESTERN TEXAS DRYLINE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW TAKES A FEW OF THESE INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR
BY MIDNIGHT. MODERATE CAPE AND LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH
THE HI-RES MODELS SHOWING SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH SOME REMNANT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT-TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY
DRAGGING A DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT TO NEAR I-35 IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAP THE AIRMASS INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE NOT MENTIONED POPS. HOWEVER...
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A
SHOWER OR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DRYLINE/FRONT RETREATS NORTHWEST
BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND STEERING FLOW
WILL TAKE THEM EAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DEEPENS AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO A LOW A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SURGES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL BE SPARSE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED
CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO LOW
HUMIDITIES. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35 DUE TO LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  86  64  86  66 /   0  -   20  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  60  86  63  86  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  87  64  88  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            62  84  64  86  66 /   0  -   20  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  91  67  96  68 /   0  20  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        63  84  65  85  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             64  90  64  92  68 /   0  -   20  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  86  64  87  65 /   0  -   20  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   62  84  65  84  65 /   0  -   20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       65  88  65  90  67 /   0  -   20  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           65  88  65  90  67 /   0  -   20  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30






000
FXUS64 KMAF 221934
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
234 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Once again seeing convection developing in the mountains this
afternoon along a theta-e ridge axis that extends northwestward
from the Rio Grande. Not a lot of instability so should see this
activity end once we lose heating this evening. An upper level
trough will move into the Central Plains tomorrow, with increasing
westerly flow spreading dry air eastward and sharpening a dryline
across the central Permian Basin. Thunderstorms will fire along
and east of this dryline which will be roughly located a Lamesa to
Midland to Crane line. The greatest coverage will be in the
northeastern CWA though isolated storms will be possible all the
way to the Rio Grande. Shear and instability will be great enough
for any storms to become severe with the main threat being large
hail and strong winds.

The dryline will move eastward tomorrow night and a weak cold
front will move into the area spreading very dry across the
remainder of the CWA and ending rain chances on Friday. The front
will not make much progress south allowing for a return of gulf
moisture and another dryline will develop Saturday. Models are
also showing another upper trough digging into the four corners
region activating the dryline with another round of convection.
Unfortunately this dryline will be located in the eastern Permian
Basin with only a few locations like Big Spring and Snyder having
a decent chance of seeing rainfall. Perhaps later model runs will
pull this dryline further west but right now that looks doubtful.
This upper level trough will slow and deepen as it moves into the
northern plains, with increasing northwesterly flow allowing for
cooler air to filter south and bring more seasonal temps by early
next week.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline is still on track to develop across the central Permian
Basin tomorrow with very dry air located to the west. An upper
level trough will bring increasing westerly winds and critical
fire weather conditions are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains
and southeast New Mexico; thus have upgraded the watch to a Red
Flag Warning. The midnight shift will have to make make one last
determination as to whether the warning will need to be expanded
further east and south, but at this time winds are too marginal to
include in the warning. Winds will subside tomorrow night and a
weak cold front will bring lower winds on Thursday.

Westerly winds will increase once again Friday into the weekend
with more critical fire weather conditions expected for an even
larger portion of the area. This is too far out in the forecast to
issue a watch, but local fire personnel should be aware that the
weekend will not be favorable for prescribed burns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  88  56  81  /   0  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              62  89  60  82  /   0  30  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                60  89  55  82  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  94  62  91  /   0  20  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  93  59  85  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  78  51  76  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  86  53  79  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   54  83  50  79  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  89  58  83  /   0  20  20   0
ODESSA TX                  64  89  57  83  /   0  20  20   0
WINK TX                    65  93  56  85  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29/10






000
FXUS64 KMAF 221934
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
234 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Once again seeing convection developing in the mountains this
afternoon along a theta-e ridge axis that extends northwestward
from the Rio Grande. Not a lot of instability so should see this
activity end once we lose heating this evening. An upper level
trough will move into the Central Plains tomorrow, with increasing
westerly flow spreading dry air eastward and sharpening a dryline
across the central Permian Basin. Thunderstorms will fire along
and east of this dryline which will be roughly located a Lamesa to
Midland to Crane line. The greatest coverage will be in the
northeastern CWA though isolated storms will be possible all the
way to the Rio Grande. Shear and instability will be great enough
for any storms to become severe with the main threat being large
hail and strong winds.

The dryline will move eastward tomorrow night and a weak cold
front will move into the area spreading very dry across the
remainder of the CWA and ending rain chances on Friday. The front
will not make much progress south allowing for a return of gulf
moisture and another dryline will develop Saturday. Models are
also showing another upper trough digging into the four corners
region activating the dryline with another round of convection.
Unfortunately this dryline will be located in the eastern Permian
Basin with only a few locations like Big Spring and Snyder having
a decent chance of seeing rainfall. Perhaps later model runs will
pull this dryline further west but right now that looks doubtful.
This upper level trough will slow and deepen as it moves into the
northern plains, with increasing northwesterly flow allowing for
cooler air to filter south and bring more seasonal temps by early
next week.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline is still on track to develop across the central Permian
Basin tomorrow with very dry air located to the west. An upper
level trough will bring increasing westerly winds and critical
fire weather conditions are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains
and southeast New Mexico; thus have upgraded the watch to a Red
Flag Warning. The midnight shift will have to make make one last
determination as to whether the warning will need to be expanded
further east and south, but at this time winds are too marginal to
include in the warning. Winds will subside tomorrow night and a
weak cold front will bring lower winds on Thursday.

Westerly winds will increase once again Friday into the weekend
with more critical fire weather conditions expected for an even
larger portion of the area. This is too far out in the forecast to
issue a watch, but local fire personnel should be aware that the
weekend will not be favorable for prescribed burns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  88  56  81  /   0  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              62  89  60  82  /   0  30  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                60  89  55  82  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  94  62  91  /   0  20  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  93  59  85  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  78  51  76  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  86  53  79  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   54  83  50  79  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  89  58  83  /   0  20  20   0
ODESSA TX                  64  89  57  83  /   0  20  20   0
WINK TX                    65  93  56  85  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29/10






000
FXUS64 KMAF 221934
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
234 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Once again seeing convection developing in the mountains this
afternoon along a theta-e ridge axis that extends northwestward
from the Rio Grande. Not a lot of instability so should see this
activity end once we lose heating this evening. An upper level
trough will move into the Central Plains tomorrow, with increasing
westerly flow spreading dry air eastward and sharpening a dryline
across the central Permian Basin. Thunderstorms will fire along
and east of this dryline which will be roughly located a Lamesa to
Midland to Crane line. The greatest coverage will be in the
northeastern CWA though isolated storms will be possible all the
way to the Rio Grande. Shear and instability will be great enough
for any storms to become severe with the main threat being large
hail and strong winds.

The dryline will move eastward tomorrow night and a weak cold
front will move into the area spreading very dry across the
remainder of the CWA and ending rain chances on Friday. The front
will not make much progress south allowing for a return of gulf
moisture and another dryline will develop Saturday. Models are
also showing another upper trough digging into the four corners
region activating the dryline with another round of convection.
Unfortunately this dryline will be located in the eastern Permian
Basin with only a few locations like Big Spring and Snyder having
a decent chance of seeing rainfall. Perhaps later model runs will
pull this dryline further west but right now that looks doubtful.
This upper level trough will slow and deepen as it moves into the
northern plains, with increasing northwesterly flow allowing for
cooler air to filter south and bring more seasonal temps by early
next week.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline is still on track to develop across the central Permian
Basin tomorrow with very dry air located to the west. An upper
level trough will bring increasing westerly winds and critical
fire weather conditions are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains
and southeast New Mexico; thus have upgraded the watch to a Red
Flag Warning. The midnight shift will have to make make one last
determination as to whether the warning will need to be expanded
further east and south, but at this time winds are too marginal to
include in the warning. Winds will subside tomorrow night and a
weak cold front will bring lower winds on Thursday.

Westerly winds will increase once again Friday into the weekend
with more critical fire weather conditions expected for an even
larger portion of the area. This is too far out in the forecast to
issue a watch, but local fire personnel should be aware that the
weekend will not be favorable for prescribed burns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  88  56  81  /   0  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              62  89  60  82  /   0  30  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                60  89  55  82  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  94  62  91  /   0  20  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  93  59  85  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  78  51  76  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  86  53  79  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   54  83  50  79  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  89  58  83  /   0  20  20   0
ODESSA TX                  64  89  57  83  /   0  20  20   0
WINK TX                    65  93  56  85  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29/10






000
FXUS64 KMAF 221934
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
234 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Once again seeing convection developing in the mountains this
afternoon along a theta-e ridge axis that extends northwestward
from the Rio Grande. Not a lot of instability so should see this
activity end once we lose heating this evening. An upper level
trough will move into the Central Plains tomorrow, with increasing
westerly flow spreading dry air eastward and sharpening a dryline
across the central Permian Basin. Thunderstorms will fire along
and east of this dryline which will be roughly located a Lamesa to
Midland to Crane line. The greatest coverage will be in the
northeastern CWA though isolated storms will be possible all the
way to the Rio Grande. Shear and instability will be great enough
for any storms to become severe with the main threat being large
hail and strong winds.

The dryline will move eastward tomorrow night and a weak cold
front will move into the area spreading very dry across the
remainder of the CWA and ending rain chances on Friday. The front
will not make much progress south allowing for a return of gulf
moisture and another dryline will develop Saturday. Models are
also showing another upper trough digging into the four corners
region activating the dryline with another round of convection.
Unfortunately this dryline will be located in the eastern Permian
Basin with only a few locations like Big Spring and Snyder having
a decent chance of seeing rainfall. Perhaps later model runs will
pull this dryline further west but right now that looks doubtful.
This upper level trough will slow and deepen as it moves into the
northern plains, with increasing northwesterly flow allowing for
cooler air to filter south and bring more seasonal temps by early
next week.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline is still on track to develop across the central Permian
Basin tomorrow with very dry air located to the west. An upper
level trough will bring increasing westerly winds and critical
fire weather conditions are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains
and southeast New Mexico; thus have upgraded the watch to a Red
Flag Warning. The midnight shift will have to make make one last
determination as to whether the warning will need to be expanded
further east and south, but at this time winds are too marginal to
include in the warning. Winds will subside tomorrow night and a
weak cold front will bring lower winds on Thursday.

Westerly winds will increase once again Friday into the weekend
with more critical fire weather conditions expected for an even
larger portion of the area. This is too far out in the forecast to
issue a watch, but local fire personnel should be aware that the
weekend will not be favorable for prescribed burns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  88  56  81  /   0  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              62  89  60  82  /   0  30  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                60  89  55  82  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  94  62  91  /   0  20  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  93  59  85  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  78  51  76  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  86  53  79  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   54  83  50  79  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  89  58  83  /   0  20  20   0
ODESSA TX                  64  89  57  83  /   0  20  20   0
WINK TX                    65  93  56  85  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29/10






000
FXUS64 KBRO 221844
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
144 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...GENERALLY QUIET
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH H5 RIDGING ALOFT AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDING AND TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT WITH LESSER MOISTURE AMOUNTS CONCENTRATED
BELOW 5KFT. ELEVATED DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST LOCALES. RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY
HELP TRIGGER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRES TO THE
WEST...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THAT POTENTIAL CONVECTION TO MAKE
IT INTO THE RGV. MOSTLY CLOUDY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME
AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
PLAINS TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO
MODERATE AND EVEN BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE H5 RIDGE WILL
COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...WITH WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST... FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE U.S. 77 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 90S
FAR WEST...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DEW POINTS AND LOW TEMPS UP
A COUPLE OF DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BELOW THE CAP OR STABLE LAYER FOR THE
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THE NEXT TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND WELL TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND DIFFLUENCE SPREADS ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY FOR US...THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH NO MENTION OF POPS. CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN SEEING ANY OF THAT PRECIPITATION PENETRATING OUR CWA. THE
BOUNDARY MAY SINK DOWN INTO OUR AREA AT THE START OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY HWY 281 AND EAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS DAYS 6-7 SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS... WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS. PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS THERE AND MOVES EAST...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
RESPONDING TO THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...AND BRIEF EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW
END ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST
INTO LATE WEEK...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS RISE TO
AROUND 6 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  69  81  71  83 /  10  10   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          68  83  70  85 /  10  10   0  10
HARLINGEN            67  86  70  88 /  10  10   0  10
MCALLEN              69  89  70  92 /  10  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  91  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  77  71  79 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221823 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
123 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED ON THE TAFS...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT WHICH POINT MVFR LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING IMPACTING ALL SITES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER ALI/VCT. LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING AND CLEARING. CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE SHIFTING EAST
DUE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECTING
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 14Z. BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG A PORT
LAVACA TO ALICE TO LAREDO LINE LATE THIS MORNING. ADEQUATE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH STRONG HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...CAP OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME WILL WEAKEN. THERE
WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
COULD BE BROKEN BY 19-20Z OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE VARIETY BUT THE INSTABILITY...CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MRNG TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CONTINUING THRU REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LLVL CLOUDS AND FG ARE LIMITED AS OF
WRITING WITH VFR PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH MID MRNG.
VFR TO THEN PREVAIL THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CU AROUND 5 TO 6KFT. PATCHES TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS
WILL TRY TO DVLP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE /KLRD/ WHILE
FARTHER EAST /KCRP KVCT KALI/ MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY MAY BECOME MORE SERLY AT KCRP
THIS AFTN. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WHILE
KLRD INCREASES TO MODERATE SE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             91  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AN/88...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 221823 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
123 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED ON THE TAFS...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT WHICH POINT MVFR LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING IMPACTING ALL SITES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER ALI/VCT. LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING AND CLEARING. CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE SHIFTING EAST
DUE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECTING
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 14Z. BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG A PORT
LAVACA TO ALICE TO LAREDO LINE LATE THIS MORNING. ADEQUATE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH STRONG HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...CAP OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME WILL WEAKEN. THERE
WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
COULD BE BROKEN BY 19-20Z OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE VARIETY BUT THE INSTABILITY...CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MRNG TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CONTINUING THRU REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LLVL CLOUDS AND FG ARE LIMITED AS OF
WRITING WITH VFR PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH MID MRNG.
VFR TO THEN PREVAIL THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CU AROUND 5 TO 6KFT. PATCHES TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS
WILL TRY TO DVLP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE /KLRD/ WHILE
FARTHER EAST /KCRP KVCT KALI/ MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY MAY BECOME MORE SERLY AT KCRP
THIS AFTN. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WHILE
KLRD INCREASES TO MODERATE SE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             91  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AN/88...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 221823 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
123 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED ON THE TAFS...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT WHICH POINT MVFR LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING IMPACTING ALL SITES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER ALI/VCT. LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING AND CLEARING. CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE SHIFTING EAST
DUE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECTING
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 14Z. BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG A PORT
LAVACA TO ALICE TO LAREDO LINE LATE THIS MORNING. ADEQUATE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH STRONG HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...CAP OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME WILL WEAKEN. THERE
WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
COULD BE BROKEN BY 19-20Z OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE VARIETY BUT THE INSTABILITY...CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MRNG TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CONTINUING THRU REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LLVL CLOUDS AND FG ARE LIMITED AS OF
WRITING WITH VFR PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH MID MRNG.
VFR TO THEN PREVAIL THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CU AROUND 5 TO 6KFT. PATCHES TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS
WILL TRY TO DVLP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE /KLRD/ WHILE
FARTHER EAST /KCRP KVCT KALI/ MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY MAY BECOME MORE SERLY AT KCRP
THIS AFTN. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WHILE
KLRD INCREASES TO MODERATE SE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             91  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AN/88...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 221823 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
123 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED ON THE TAFS...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT THE EASTERN SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT WHICH POINT MVFR LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING IMPACTING ALL SITES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER ALI/VCT. LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING AND CLEARING. CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE SHIFTING EAST
DUE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECTING
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 14Z. BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG A PORT
LAVACA TO ALICE TO LAREDO LINE LATE THIS MORNING. ADEQUATE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH STRONG HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...CAP OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME WILL WEAKEN. THERE
WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
COULD BE BROKEN BY 19-20Z OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE VARIETY BUT THE INSTABILITY...CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MRNG TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CONTINUING THRU REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LLVL CLOUDS AND FG ARE LIMITED AS OF
WRITING WITH VFR PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH MID MRNG.
VFR TO THEN PREVAIL THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CU AROUND 5 TO 6KFT. PATCHES TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS
WILL TRY TO DVLP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE /KLRD/ WHILE
FARTHER EAST /KCRP KVCT KALI/ MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY MAY BECOME MORE SERLY AT KCRP
THIS AFTN. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WHILE
KLRD INCREASES TO MODERATE SE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             91  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AN/88...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KFWD 221735
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1235 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD. TIMING THE SHIFT IN WINDS FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY IS THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING RESULTING IN SLOWLY VEERING WIND
DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTH OF
DUE EAST BY MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED AROUND ALL AREA AIRPORTS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR AROUND 4000 FT IN
ALTITUDE AND SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. THESE CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN BY
HEATING...AND WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL HOLD IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH SOME MORE FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR ALL AREA AIRPORTS REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH
THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR DFW AREA TAF SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES ARE ANY
STORMS ROLLING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT WILL RUN INTO THE CAP
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING AREA
AIRPORTS. HOWEVER THERE ARE PLENTY OF FORECASTS BETWEEN NOW AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO REVISIT THIS THINKING.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/
THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAD EXITED THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS OF 08Z
/3 AM CDT/. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER THE
RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME DENSE FOG MAY
OCCUR. FOR NOW HAVE JUST MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING
IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO WEATHERFORD TO TEMPLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
WILL DO AN UPDATE LATER TO ADD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT US RAIN MOVES FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST. THE LIGHT
NORTH SURFACE WINDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
TODAY AND EASTERLY TONIGHT. AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY
AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD
THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY. WE WILL BE IN ZONAL FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL HAVE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  62  84  64  83 /   0   0   0  20  10
WACO, TX              84  59  84  62  82 /   0   0   0  20  10
PARIS, TX             79  55  79  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
DENTON, TX            81  57  84  62  82 /   0   0   0  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          82  58  81  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
DALLAS, TX            84  63  83  64  82 /   0   0   0  20  10
TERRELL, TX           81  59  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  83  62  82 /   0   0   0  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            82  59  83  63  83 /   0   0   0  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  57  84  62  84 /   0   0   0  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /






000
FXUS64 KHGX 221735
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1235 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VIS SATELLITE AND 17Z SFC OBS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING FROM
ALONG A KAUS/KIAH/KBPT LINE. FRONT MAY PUSH A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS KSGR/KHOU BUT DOUBT IT MOVES MUCH FARTHER THAN THAT. DO
NOT THINK CONVECTION WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGER SHOWS
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE WITH TROUGHA AXIS PASSING THE AREA TO
THE EAST. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
TONIGHT TO SUPPORT STRATUS AND FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THINK ALL
THE TAF SITES MENTION AT LEAST A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS IN THE MORNING
FOR FOG/STRATUS. SE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TOMORROW AND MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LIFT IN THE LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF -RA ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...LIKELY
IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. PER OBS AT PRE-
SENT...THIS FRONT IS A BIT HARD TO DEFINE BUT THERE IS DEFINITELY
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK DOWN FROM THE NE. OTHERWISE NOT
GOING WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE GOING FCST AS IT DOES
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AREAS OF PRE-DAWN FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...
LOCALLY DENSE...AS WINDS HAVE LAID DOWN OVER MATAGORDA AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES. LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. A WEAK NORTHERN BOUNDARY WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL CWA
THROUGH THE DAY...HANGING UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE CITY AND THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MIGHT PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS...WITHIN AN MOISTENING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...TO INITIATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A RESIDENT MID TO
UPPER 60 DEW POINT AIR MASS...WITH LOW 80 F CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RECEIVING A BRIEF
AFTERNOON DOWNPOUR OF HEARING A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO.

5H LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST...WITH LOW-MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLIES...WILL BE THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE STATE THAT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMS EARTH DAY. MILD
AND MORE HUMID MORNINGS IN THE AVERAGE MID 60S WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS (NEAR) STATIONARY SHALLOW
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT...ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL
PERSIST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND...WITH DAILY CLOUD COVER BREAKS WORKING IN TANDEM
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING MID-LEVELS/INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...EACH
SUBSEQUENT DAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LAST.

THE PASSAGE OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES TO SLIGHT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY REMAINS HIGH
IN CLOSING OUT THE WORK WEEK SO...AS EARLY MORNING WINDS DIE
OUT...FOG WILL BECOME MORE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD. MODELING HAS A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...REGIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEING THE TARGET DAYS. 85H
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE 20 DEG C THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE AVERAGE MIDDLE
80S. THE PERIOD ENDS UNDER MORE OVERCAST WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SETTLES INTO WESTERN TEXAS AND
SETS UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITHIN A MOIST AND WEAKLY-
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...OVER EASTERN TEXAS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  62  85  64  84 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  85  65  84 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  67  79  68  79 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39




000
FXUS64 KBRO 221726 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1226 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS RESULTING IN A WEAK GRADIENT
AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WHICH ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UNRESTRICTED VSBY AND FEW TO SCT DECKS ABOVE 3 KFT TONIGHT...BUT
WITH BKN EXCURSIONS INTO TEMPO MVFR TERRITORY FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE DAWN. FOG APPEARS TO BE DOWNPLAYED WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT PATCHES OF SHALLOW LIGHT GROUND
FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT...WITH SCT
TO BKN CU AND VFR CEILINGS LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...1500 FT DECK SPREADING NORTH THRU KHRL AND KMFE...OR
THE MID VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND MAY ARRIVE AT KBRO LATER THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL RISE DURING THE MORNING AND LIFT ABOVE 3000
AFTER NOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY.
DEEPER SFC MOISTURE WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE EVENING...LOWERING TO 1000 TO 1500 FT FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL DECREASE TO NEAR CALM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LARGE SWATH OF DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE SFC...TEMPS WILL AGAIN JUMP HIGHER
INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESSER TODAY
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT DRIER AIR ALOFT.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS
AND BOTTLES UP LLVL MOISTURE. INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
THAT CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SFC...LIMITING FOG FORMATION.
LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE 60S AGAIN DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNING GULF MOISTURE.

MINIMAL DIFFERENCES NOTED FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE UNDERCUT BY SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE LAYER AT THE SFC.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S. NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCH LANDS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID
90S ACROSS THE WEST. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY COURTESY OF LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUNDAY DUE TO A DRY LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ON MONDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HEAT SPIKE. THE ECMWF
MOS IS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MEX MOS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...BOTH DAYS. WILL BUMP UP THE INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT BELOW
ECMWF MOS NUMBERS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING AND
LIMITED LIFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. BUT
WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10 POPS THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

MARINE...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...L/V WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE NW GULF.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS WHICH IS ALLOWING SEAS TO
CONTINUE RELAXING RIGHT AT 2 FEET. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
KANSAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESPOND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ONGOING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS BRIEFLY DECREASE FOR FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/58






000
FXUS64 KLUB 221726
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. ISO TSTMS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN NM
BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE STATE LINE. INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH 35 KT LLJ. AT THIS POINT...DOES
NOT APPEAR BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE SUFFICIENTLY FOR LLWS
MENTION. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED BEYOND 18Z MAINLY EAST OF KLBB WITH
SVR THREAT POSSIBLE.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850HPA.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD
FRONT STALLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
A SOMEWHAT MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME MID TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THESE
WILL BE CARRIED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY
SUNRISE.  EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE RIDGE APPROACHES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND CARRY IT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  THE MOST OPTIMISTIC
ARE THE TTU-WRF AND NAM12 WHICH BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
MIX FAIRLY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION.  A SMALL INVERSION ON TOP OF
THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MEANS THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A CAP TO
OVERCOME DURING THE DAY AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  ONLY POSITIVE IS THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AND SUSTAIN ANY STORMS...ALLOWING THEM TO MAKE IT
ACROSS THE STATE LINE.  FEEL THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAKING
IT INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS IS PRETTY SLIM BUT NON-ZERO.  WILL
CONTINUE CARRY NON-MENTIONABLE POPS AROUND 10-12 PERCENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL THEN BE IN STORE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 15 MPH KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO GET THE LION/S SHARE OF ATTENTION IN THIS
LONG TERM PACKAGE COURTESY OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND ACTIVE
DRYLINE. FOLLOWING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EARLY MORNING
SPRINKLES ON WED FROM A LEAD IMPULSE...STRONG HEATING AND DEEP
MIXING LOOK TO EASILY BREACH THE MODEST EML LID BY EARLY-TO-MID
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS AND THE STREAK OF MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE BEEN
CONVECTING THIS DAY...DECIDED TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTORM WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS INITIATION IS A GOOD BET IN SUCH
A SETUP. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE DRYLINE RESIDING WEST
OF I-27 BY 18Z WED...SO ISOLATED TSTORMS WERE NUDGED WEST A BIT...
HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT WILL SEE TO IT THAT THESE
STORMS ARE SENT PACKING OFF THE CAPROCK BEFORE 00Z. POINT SOUNDINGS
ARE MOST IMPRESSIVE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SBCAPES APPROACH
3000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER LCL HEIGHTS RELATIVE TO LOCATIONS
FARTHER WEST. SUBSTANTIAL CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER ALONE
IS A RED FLAG FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...BUT ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ANY HAIL COULD CERTAINLY GROW TO
SIGNIFICANT SIZES. RATHER HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO FOSTER
DOWNBURSTS...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LESSER OF THE THREATS SO FAR.

THE DRYLINE SHOULD HANG UP IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WED EVENING
WITH THE BRUNT OF STORMS QUICKLY DEPARTING EAST...BUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY BE HARD TO COME BY AS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW MOVES IN WITH THE BASE OF THE 300MB TROUGH. OPTED TO LEAVE
SOME POPS IN THE EVENING OUT EAST BEFORE NIXING MENTION ALTOGETHER
BY 06Z. A COLD FRONT IS THEN DRAGGED SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING BEFORE A MODIFIED RETURN FLOW RESUMES ON FRI AHEAD OF
A MORE VIGOROUS AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON SATURDAY. DID KEEP
THE INHERITED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTN AND
NIGHT OFF THE CAPROCK AS SUCH A FORMIDABLE LOOKING TROUGH COULD
EASILY ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF EVEN RICHER MIXING RATIOS BACK
INTO THE REGION...WHILE ALSO PULLING THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN
MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST. WEST OF THIS DRYLINE...BLOWING DUST MAY BE
IN THE CARDS PROVIDED A 30-40 KNOT 850MB WIND MAX UNFOLDS AS PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THEREAFTER...THE NEG TILT TROUGH LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF AND BEGIN WOBBLING E-SE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE
A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS UPPER LOW...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER BOUT OF SOME FREEZING LOWS
IN SOME AREAS.

FIRE WEATHER...
THREE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOW LOOK A BIT
MORE ATTAINABLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WEST OF A MORTON
TO DIMMITT LINE. POST-DRYLINE WINDS BY THIS TIME SHOULD REACH 20
MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND
EVENTUALLY SINGLE DIGITS. THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONSISTENT WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE FARTHER NORTH IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
UNDER A 30-35 KNOT WIND MAX AT 850MB...SO THERE IS STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE NECESSARY WIND SPEED AND DURATION MAY PROVE TOO
INTERMITTENT DESPITE VERY LOW RH VALUES. THEREAFTER...A MORE
DEFINITIVE FIRE WEATHER SETUP MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK BY SATURDAY IN EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  54  83  45  75 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         82  56  84  47  76 /   0   0  20   0   0
PLAINVIEW     82  57  84  49  77 /   0   0  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  60  87  48  79 /   0  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       83  59  87  51  79 /   0   0  20   0   0
DENVER CITY   82  61  86  51  77 /   0  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  61  87  48  79 /   0   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  57  86  58  79 /   0   0  50  30   0
SPUR          83  59  86  54  80 /   0   0  30  20   0
ASPERMONT     86  59  88  60  80 /   0   0  20  30   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033.

&&

$$

99/99/26






000
FXUS64 KAMA 221725 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1225 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS BY 15Z WED. A DRYLINE
WILL MIX INTO THE EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF
FORECAST PERIOD FOCUSING TSRA EAST OF ALL THREE TERMINALS.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO
15 KT TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH KDHT HAVING THE
BEST...WHILE STILL LOW...CHANCES OF THE TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND A
DRYLINE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
HERBACEOUS GREEN UP BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
FUELS REMAIN DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KAMA 221725 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1225 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS BY 15Z WED. A DRYLINE
WILL MIX INTO THE EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF
FORECAST PERIOD FOCUSING TSRA EAST OF ALL THREE TERMINALS.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO
15 KT TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH KDHT HAVING THE
BEST...WHILE STILL LOW...CHANCES OF THE TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND A
DRYLINE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
HERBACEOUS GREEN UP BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
FUELS REMAIN DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KEWX 221724
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1224 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING WEAK FRONT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PREVAILING WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
RETURNING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A DECK OF LOW END MVFR STRATUS
WEDNESDAY MORNING BY 11Z. CEILINGS WILL RISE TO VFR ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND 15Z WITH A BKN/OVC DECK ALOFT. WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE GUSTY AT DRT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER
AN EXCITING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...BUT IT/S A LITTLE SLOW TO ARRIVE AT THE SURFACE BEHIND A
VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS BOUNDARY...AND A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY BEFORE THE
EVENING STORM/S DISSIPATED...COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF U.S. 90 THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A STORM OR TWO... BUT MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW NO CONVECTION...
SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE DRY
LINE AND AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL FORCING FROM CONVECTION IN THE WEST
SHOULD ACT AS THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE PUT 20 PERCENT POPS TO COVER THIS...BUT
THEY COULD END UP HIGHER DEPENDING ON THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION THAT SETS UP EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A CUTOFF LOW IS PROJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. MOIST GULF FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY EVENING...SO HAVE PLACED 20 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS IN IT/S WAKE. WENT WITH A BLEND AT THIS FORECAST
RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ELEVATED CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
LOW HUMIDITY. NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35 DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  63  85  64  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  60  85  63  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  62  86  63  85 /  -    0  -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  62  84  64  85 /   0   0  -   20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  69  89  67  93 /  -   -   20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  63  84  65  83 /  -    0  -   20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             89  66  88  66  90 /  -    0  -   20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  61  85  63  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  62  84  64  83 /  -   -   -   20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  64  87  65  88 /  -    0  -   20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  64  88  65  89 /  -    0  -   20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...12
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33






000
FXUS64 KMAF 221653
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 24 hrs. Moderate
southeast flow will increase overnight ahead of a strong storm
system to our west.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A weak frontal boundary has pushed to the higher terrain of
southwest Texas early this morning, while a pair of outflow
boundaries from convection over central Texas have pushed west and
northwest over the area early this morning.  Low level moisture is
on the increase as a result.  Meanwhile aloft, an ua ridge is
traversing the region, and will continue eastward and flatten
somewhat Wednesday as an ua trough off the West Coast expands over
the western Conus.  Low level moisture may be great enough for
isolated convection to develop along and ahead of a developing
surface trough, and the higher terrain, at max heating this
afternoon.  Do not expect much organized convection since
instability will be rather pedestrian, topping out perhaps
around 500 J/Kg, and shear will mainly be only 25kt.  However,
very steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C and 0 to 6 km bulk
shear near 30kt in a few areas with better localized heating could
yield a stronger storm or two, especially considering a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Any storms should not last more than an hour or so
after sundown.  As height falls increase ahead of the broadening
western Conus ua trough tonight, low level moisture will push
westward into the higher terrain by Wednesday morning.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will push the moisture eastward Wednesday
with a dryline sharpening up over the Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon.  Models have latched onto a vorticity maximum at the base
of the ua trough that will translate eastward over the area
Wednesday.  Think the dryline will remain over the eastern fringe of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible due to the mentioned vorticity maximum and intense surface
heating overcoming any convective inhibition.  A low level jet will
also develop 24/00Z-24/03Z and increase low level convergence along
the dryline.  Steep lapse rates, bulk shear around 45kt and plenty
of instability will result in some storms producing large hail and
damaging winds, so will mention this in the forecast products.  To
the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more info.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Wednesday.  For
Thursday through Saturday, we`ll mainly have hot, dry and windy
conditions with continued fire weather concerns.  Rain chances do
not look very good, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Lower Trans Pecos Friday, and another dryline induced round of
convection Saturday as a large upper trough ejects northeastward
over the western Conus, which will result in the dryline taking
shape again over the region.  This same ua trough will cutoff, then
meander slowly east over the central U.S. Plains through early next
week.  We`ll still have dry and windy conditions Sunday and Monday,
but it will not be quite as hot.  Then, a strong cold front is
expected to move south across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
much cooler temperatures behind it.  Do not expect a freeze this
time, but high temperatures could end up 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, if not lower.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continue through much of the end of the week. The first day of concern
will be Wednesday as a large upper level storm system moves across the
northern states. A dryline will develop across the Permian Basin
in response with breezy and dry west to southwesterly winds possible
behind the dryline across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Will continue the fire weather watch for these areas
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After a lull Thursday fire weather concerns will increase again
by Friday through next weekend. The next in a series of potent
upper level storm systems is forecast to emerge onto the west
coast Friday and move to the high plains by next Sunday. Ahead
of this system an intense lee surface low and dryline is expected
to develop by Friday and continue through the weekend. As the
upper level system moves east toward the forecast area the dryline
will probably move progressively a little further eastward each day.
The better chance of critical fire weather conditions will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains Friday and
spread eastward to cover much of the forecast area Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29






000
FXUS64 KMAF 221653
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 24 hrs. Moderate
southeast flow will increase overnight ahead of a strong storm
system to our west.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A weak frontal boundary has pushed to the higher terrain of
southwest Texas early this morning, while a pair of outflow
boundaries from convection over central Texas have pushed west and
northwest over the area early this morning.  Low level moisture is
on the increase as a result.  Meanwhile aloft, an ua ridge is
traversing the region, and will continue eastward and flatten
somewhat Wednesday as an ua trough off the West Coast expands over
the western Conus.  Low level moisture may be great enough for
isolated convection to develop along and ahead of a developing
surface trough, and the higher terrain, at max heating this
afternoon.  Do not expect much organized convection since
instability will be rather pedestrian, topping out perhaps
around 500 J/Kg, and shear will mainly be only 25kt.  However,
very steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C and 0 to 6 km bulk
shear near 30kt in a few areas with better localized heating could
yield a stronger storm or two, especially considering a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Any storms should not last more than an hour or so
after sundown.  As height falls increase ahead of the broadening
western Conus ua trough tonight, low level moisture will push
westward into the higher terrain by Wednesday morning.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will push the moisture eastward Wednesday
with a dryline sharpening up over the Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon.  Models have latched onto a vorticity maximum at the base
of the ua trough that will translate eastward over the area
Wednesday.  Think the dryline will remain over the eastern fringe of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible due to the mentioned vorticity maximum and intense surface
heating overcoming any convective inhibition.  A low level jet will
also develop 24/00Z-24/03Z and increase low level convergence along
the dryline.  Steep lapse rates, bulk shear around 45kt and plenty
of instability will result in some storms producing large hail and
damaging winds, so will mention this in the forecast products.  To
the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more info.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Wednesday.  For
Thursday through Saturday, we`ll mainly have hot, dry and windy
conditions with continued fire weather concerns.  Rain chances do
not look very good, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Lower Trans Pecos Friday, and another dryline induced round of
convection Saturday as a large upper trough ejects northeastward
over the western Conus, which will result in the dryline taking
shape again over the region.  This same ua trough will cutoff, then
meander slowly east over the central U.S. Plains through early next
week.  We`ll still have dry and windy conditions Sunday and Monday,
but it will not be quite as hot.  Then, a strong cold front is
expected to move south across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
much cooler temperatures behind it.  Do not expect a freeze this
time, but high temperatures could end up 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, if not lower.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continue through much of the end of the week. The first day of concern
will be Wednesday as a large upper level storm system moves across the
northern states. A dryline will develop across the Permian Basin
in response with breezy and dry west to southwesterly winds possible
behind the dryline across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Will continue the fire weather watch for these areas
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After a lull Thursday fire weather concerns will increase again
by Friday through next weekend. The next in a series of potent
upper level storm systems is forecast to emerge onto the west
coast Friday and move to the high plains by next Sunday. Ahead
of this system an intense lee surface low and dryline is expected
to develop by Friday and continue through the weekend. As the
upper level system moves east toward the forecast area the dryline
will probably move progressively a little further eastward each day.
The better chance of critical fire weather conditions will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains Friday and
spread eastward to cover much of the forecast area Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KHGX 221635
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
GETTING SOME REPORTS OF -RA ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING...LIKELY
IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. PER OBS AT PRE-
SENT...THIS FRONT IS A BIT HARD TO DEFINE BUT THERE IS DEFINITELY
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK DOWN FROM THE NE. OTHERWISE NOT
GOING WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE GOING FCST AS IT DOES
SEEM TO BE ON TRACK. 41


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AREAS OF PRE-DAWN FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...
LOCALLY DENSE...AS WINDS HAVE LAID DOWN OVER MATAGORDA AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES. LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. A WEAK NORTHERN BOUNDARY WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL CWA
THROUGH THE DAY...HANGING UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE CITY AND THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MIGHT PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS...WITHIN AN MOISTENING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...TO INITIATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A RESIDENT MID TO
UPPER 60 DEW POINT AIR MASS...WITH LOW 80 F CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RECEIVING A BRIEF
AFTERNOON DOWNPOUR OF HEARING A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO.

5H LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST...WITH LOW-MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLIES...WILL BE THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE STATE THAT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMS EARTH DAY. MILD
AND MORE HUMID MORNINGS IN THE AVERAGE MID 60S WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS (NEAR) STATIONARY SHALLOW
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT...ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL
PERSIST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND...WITH DAILY CLOUD COVER BREAKS WORKING IN TANDEM
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING MID-LEVELS/INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...EACH
SUBSEQUENT DAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LAST.

THE PASSAGE OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES TO SLIGHT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY REMAINS HIGH
IN CLOSING OUT THE WORK WEEK SO...AS EARLY MORNING WINDS DIE
OUT...FOG WILL BECOME MORE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD. MODELING HAS A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...REGIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEING THE TARGET DAYS. 85H
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE 20 DEG C THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE AVERAGE MIDDLE
80S. THE PERIOD ENDS UNDER MORE OVERCAST WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SETTLES INTO WESTERN TEXAS AND
SETS UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITHIN A MOIST AND WEAKLY-
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...OVER EASTERN TEXAS. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  62  85  64  84 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  85  65  84 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  67  79  68  79 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSJT 221613
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1113 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours. Light east
winds today, will become southeast after sunset. South winds will
increase to 12 to 18 knots, with higher gusts, between 15z and 17z
Wednesday.

Daniels

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals during the next 24 hours.

21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Look for temperatures slightly above seasonal normals to dominate
West Central Texas for the next 24 hours. Highs today mainly in the
mid to upper 80s look good. I thought numbers closer to the warmer
NAM for highs today looked best. For tonight, lows around 60 appear
reasonable.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

Severe thunderstorms are possible. A dryline will mix into West
Central Texas from the west Wednesday afternoon. Surface moisture
convergence, along and near this boundary, may initiate
Thunderstorms. Plus, a minor short wave aloft will also enhance the
thunderstorm potential. The best upper dynamics will be across our
northern counties. There, some severe thunderstorms are possible,
with large hail, damaging winds, and ever-present deadly lightning
dominating the threat list. Some thunderstorms may linger across
mainly the eastern half of West Central Texas Wednesday evening.
However, I believe all activity will end by midnight.

Huber

(Thursday through Saturday Night)

As an upper trough moves across and east of the plains on Thursday,
another front pushes south toward West Central Texas. Models
indicate this front will likely be dry, and I expect it will be
nothing more than a wind shift, with little if any cold air
advection. Thus, highs on Thursday in the 85 to 90 range look
reasonable. As surface high pressure builds across the region on
Friday, southerly low-level flow will return to West Central Texas.
Highs on Friday will likely be slightly warmer than Thursday, mainly
around 90 across all of West Central Texas.

Huber

(Saturday Night)

Another surface dryline may initiate thunderstorms Saturday evening
across West Central Texas. An upper trough to the west will produce
southwest flow aloft at that time. Thus, I did continue slight
chance PoPs for Saturday night across all of West Central Texas.
Plus, if thunderstorms do develop, I would expect at least some of
them will be severe thunderstorms. After all, it`s the time of year
for severe weather.

Huber

(Sunday through Monday)

Models bring another dry front across West Central Texas Sunday
afternoon. This front will bring slightly cooler air to West Central
Texas. As surface high pressure builds over the region on Monday,
plan for afternoon highs mainly in the 80 to 85 range.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  60  86  63  85  59 /   5  10  30   5   5
San Angelo  60  89  64  89  60 /   5  10  30   5   5
Junction  61  86  64  89  63 /   5  10  30   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221504 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1004 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 14Z. BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG A PORT
LAVACA TO ALICE TO LAREDO LINE LATE THIS MORNING. ADEQUATE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH STRONG HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...CAP OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME WILL WEAKEN. THERE
WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
COULD BE BROKEN BY 19-20Z OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE VARIETY BUT THE INSTABILITY...CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION
POSSIBLITY OF STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MRNG TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CONTINUING THRU REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LLVL CLOUDS AND FG ARE LIMITED AS OF
WRITING WITH VFR PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH MID MRNG.
VFR TO THEN PREVAIL THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CU AROUND 5 TO 6KFT. PATCHES TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS
WILL TRY TO DVLP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE /KLRD/ WHILE
FARTHER EAST /KCRP KVCT KALI/ MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY MAY BECOME MORE SERLY AT KCRP
THIS AFTN. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WHILE
KLRD INCREASES TO MODERATE SE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             91  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221504 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1004 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 14Z. BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG A PORT
LAVACA TO ALICE TO LAREDO LINE LATE THIS MORNING. ADEQUATE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH STRONG HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...CAP OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME WILL WEAKEN. THERE
WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
COULD BE BROKEN BY 19-20Z OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE VARIETY BUT THE INSTABILITY...CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION
POSSIBLITY OF STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MRNG TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CONTINUING THRU REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LLVL CLOUDS AND FG ARE LIMITED AS OF
WRITING WITH VFR PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH MID MRNG.
VFR TO THEN PREVAIL THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CU AROUND 5 TO 6KFT. PATCHES TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS
WILL TRY TO DVLP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE /KLRD/ WHILE
FARTHER EAST /KCRP KVCT KALI/ MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY MAY BECOME MORE SERLY AT KCRP
THIS AFTN. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WHILE
KLRD INCREASES TO MODERATE SE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             91  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221504 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1004 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 14Z. BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG A PORT
LAVACA TO ALICE TO LAREDO LINE LATE THIS MORNING. ADEQUATE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH STRONG HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...CAP OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME WILL WEAKEN. THERE
WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
COULD BE BROKEN BY 19-20Z OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE VARIETY BUT THE INSTABILITY...CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION
POSSIBLITY OF STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MRNG TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CONTINUING THRU REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LLVL CLOUDS AND FG ARE LIMITED AS OF
WRITING WITH VFR PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH MID MRNG.
VFR TO THEN PREVAIL THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CU AROUND 5 TO 6KFT. PATCHES TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS
WILL TRY TO DVLP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE /KLRD/ WHILE
FARTHER EAST /KCRP KVCT KALI/ MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY MAY BECOME MORE SERLY AT KCRP
THIS AFTN. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WHILE
KLRD INCREASES TO MODERATE SE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             91  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221504 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1004 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 14Z. BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG A PORT
LAVACA TO ALICE TO LAREDO LINE LATE THIS MORNING. ADEQUATE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH STRONG HEATING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...CAP OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME WILL WEAKEN. THERE
WILL BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
COULD BE BROKEN BY 19-20Z OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE VARIETY BUT THE INSTABILITY...CAPE
VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BRIEFLY
BECOME STRONG. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION
POSSIBLITY OF STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MRNG TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CONTINUING THRU REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LLVL CLOUDS AND FG ARE LIMITED AS OF
WRITING WITH VFR PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH MID MRNG.
VFR TO THEN PREVAIL THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CU AROUND 5 TO 6KFT. PATCHES TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS
WILL TRY TO DVLP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE /KLRD/ WHILE
FARTHER EAST /KCRP KVCT KALI/ MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY MAY BECOME MORE SERLY AT KCRP
THIS AFTN. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WHILE
KLRD INCREASES TO MODERATE SE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            94  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             91  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM






000
FXUS64 KLUB 221141 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND WILL
START OUT OF THE EAST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850HPA.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD
FRONT STALLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
A SOMEWHAT MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME MID TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THESE
WILL BE CARRIED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY
SUNRISE.  EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE RIDGE APPROACHES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND CARRY IT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  THE MOST OPTIMISTIC
ARE THE TTU-WRF AND NAM12 WHICH BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
MIX FAIRLY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION.  A SMALL INVERSION ON TOP OF
THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MEANS THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A CAP TO
OVERCOME DURING THE DAY AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  ONLY POSITIVE IS THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AND SUSTAIN ANY STORMS...ALLOWING THEM TO MAKE IT
ACROSS THE STATE LINE.  FEEL THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAKING
IT INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS IS PRETTY SLIM BUT NON-ZERO.  WILL
CONTINUE CARRY NON-MENTIONABLE POPS AROUND 10-12 PERCENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL THEN BE IN STORE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 15 MPH KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO GET THE LION/S SHARE OF ATTENTION IN THIS
LONG TERM PACKAGE COURTESY OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND ACTIVE
DRYLINE. FOLLOWING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EARLY MORNING
SPRINKLES ON WED FROM A LEAD IMPULSE...STRONG HEATING AND DEEP
MIXING LOOK TO EASILY BREACH THE MODEST EML LID BY EARLY-TO-MID
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS AND THE STREAK OF MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE BEEN
CONVECTING THIS DAY...DECIDED TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTORM WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS INITIATION IS A GOOD BET IN SUCH
A SETUP. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE DRYLINE RESIDING WEST
OF I-27 BY 18Z WED...SO ISOLATED TSTORMS WERE NUDGED WEST A BIT...
HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT WILL SEE TO IT THAT THESE
STORMS ARE SENT PACKING OFF THE CAPROCK BEFORE 00Z. POINT SOUNDINGS
ARE MOST IMPRESSIVE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SBCAPES APPROACH
3000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER LCL HEIGHTS RELATIVE TO LOCATIONS
FARTHER WEST. SUBSTANTIAL CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER ALONE
IS A RED FLAG FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...BUT ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ANY HAIL COULD CERTAINLY GROW TO
SIGNIFICANT SIZES. RATHER HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO FOSTER
DOWNBURSTS...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LESSER OF THE THREATS SO FAR.

THE DRYLINE SHOULD HANG UP IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WED EVENING
WITH THE BRUNT OF STORMS QUICKLY DEPARTING EAST...BUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY BE HARD TO COME BY AS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW MOVES IN WITH THE BASE OF THE 300MB TROUGH. OPTED TO LEAVE
SOME POPS IN THE EVENING OUT EAST BEFORE NIXING MENTION ALTOGETHER
BY 06Z. A COLD FRONT IS THEN DRAGGED SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING BEFORE A MODIFIED RETURN FLOW RESUMES ON FRI AHEAD OF
A MORE VIGOROUS AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON SATURDAY. DID KEEP
THE INHERITED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTN AND
NIGHT OFF THE CAPROCK AS SUCH A FORMIDABLE LOOKING TROUGH COULD
EASILY ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF EVEN RICHER MIXING RATIOS BACK
INTO THE REGION...WHILE ALSO PULLING THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN
MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST. WEST OF THIS DRYLINE...BLOWING DUST MAY BE
IN THE CARDS PROVIDED A 30-40 KNOT 850MB WIND MAX UNFOLDS AS PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THEREAFTER...THE NEG TILT TROUGH LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF AND BEGIN WOBBLING E-SE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE
A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS UPPER LOW...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER BOUT OF SOME FREEZING LOWS
IN SOME AREAS.

FIRE WEATHER...
THREE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOW LOOK A BIT
MORE ATTAINABLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WEST OF A MORTON
TO DIMMITT LINE. POST-DRYLINE WINDS BY THIS TIME SHOULD REACH 20
MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND
EVENTUALLY SINGLE DIGITS. THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONSISTENT WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE FARTHER NORTH IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
UNDER A 30-35 KNOT WIND MAX AT 850MB...SO THERE IS STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE NECESSARY WIND SPEED AND DURATION MAY PROVE TOO
INTERMITTENT DESPITE VERY LOW RH VALUES. THEREAFTER...A MORE
DEFINITIVE FIRE WEATHER SETUP MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK BY SATURDAY IN EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  54  83  45  75 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         82  56  84  47  76 /   0   0  20   0   0
PLAINVIEW     82  57  84  49  77 /   0   0  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  60  87  48  79 /   0  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       83  59  87  51  79 /   0   0  20   0   0
DENVER CITY   82  61  86  51  77 /   0  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  61  87  48  79 /   0   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  57  86  58  79 /   0   0  50  30   0
SPUR          83  59  86  54  80 /   0   0  30  20   0
ASPERMONT     86  59  88  60  80 /   0   0  20  30   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033.

&&

$$

14/93/14






000
FXUS64 KCRP 221132 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
632 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS MRNG TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MRNG WITH VFR CONTINUING THRU REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. LLVL CLOUDS AND FG ARE LIMITED AS OF
WRITING WITH VFR PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS MAY TEMPORARILY IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH MID MRNG.
VFR TO THEN PREVAIL THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH ONLY SOME PASSING
CU AROUND 5 TO 6KFT. PATCHES TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS
WILL TRY TO DVLP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF PERIOD WITH
GREATEST CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE /KLRD/ WHILE
FARTHER EAST /KCRP KVCT KALI/ MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS FOR MUCH OF TODAY MAY BECOME MORE SERLY AT KCRP
THIS AFTN. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WHILE
KLRD INCREASES TO MODERATE SE LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             92  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION




000
FXUS64 KBRO 221122 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
622 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...1500 FT DECK SPREADING NORTH THRU KHRL AND KMFE...OR
THE MID VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND MAY ARRIVE AT KBRO LATER THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL RISE DURING THE MORNING AND LIFT ABOVE 3000
AFTER NOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY.
DEEPER SFC MOISTURE WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE EVENING...LOWERING TO 1000 TO 1500 FT FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL DECREASE TO NEAR CALM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LARGE SWATH OF DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE SFC...TEMPS WILL AGAIN JUMP HIGHER
INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESSER TODAY
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT DRIER AIR ALOFT.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS
AND BOTTLES UP LLVL MOISTURE. INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
THAT CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SFC...LIMITING FOG FORMATION.
LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE 60S AGAIN DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNING GULF MOISTURE.

MINIMAL DIFFERENCES NOTED FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE UNDERCUT BY SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE LAYER AT THE SFC.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S. NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCH LANDS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID
90S ACROSS THE WEST. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY COURTESY OF LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUNDAY DUE TO A DRY LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ON MONDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HEAT SPIKE. THE ECMWF
MOS IS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MEX MOS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...BOTH DAYS. WILL BUMP UP THE INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT BELOW
ECMWF MOS NUMBERS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING AND
LIMITED LIFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. BUT
WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10 POPS THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

MARINE...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...L/V WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE NW GULF.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS WHICH IS ALLOWING SEAS TO
CONTINUE RELAXING RIGHT AT 2 FEET. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
KANSAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESPOND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ONGOING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS BRIEFLY DECREASE FOR FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55/CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KEWX 221116
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
616 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL SEE WINDS
SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER
AN EXCITING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...BUT IT/S A LITTLE SLOW TO ARRIVE AT THE SURFACE BEHIND A
VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS BOUNDARY...AND A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY BEFORE THE
EVENING STORM/S DISSIPATED...COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF U.S. 90 THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A STORM OR TWO... BUT MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW NO CONVECTION...
SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE DRY
LINE AND AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL FORCING FROM CONVECTION IN THE WEST
SHOULD ACT AS THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE PUT 20 PERCENT POPS TO COVER THIS...BUT
THEY COULD END UP HIGHER DEPENDING ON THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION THAT SETS UP EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A CUTOFF LOW IS PROJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. MOIST GULF FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY EVENING...SO HAVE PLACED 20 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS IN IT/S WAKE. WENT WITH A BLEND AT THIS FORECAST
RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ELEVATED CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
LOW HUMIDITY. NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35 DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  63  85  64  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  60  85  63  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  62  86  63  85 /  -    0  -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  62  84  64  85 /   0   0  -   20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  69  89  67  93 /  -   -   20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  63  84  65  83 /  -    0  -   20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             89  66  88  66  90 /  -    0  -   20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  61  85  63  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  62  84  64  83 /  -   -   -   20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  64  87  65  88 /  -    0  -   20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  64  88  65  89 /  -    0  -   20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26







000
FXUS64 KAMA 221113
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO
15 KT TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH KDHT HAVING THE
BEST...WHILE STILL LOW...CHANCES OF THE TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND A
DRYLINE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
HERBACEOUS GREEN UP BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
FUELS REMAIN DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 221113
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO
15 KT TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH KDHT HAVING THE
BEST...WHILE STILL LOW...CHANCES OF THE TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND A
DRYLINE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
HERBACEOUS GREEN UP BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
FUELS REMAIN DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 221113
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO
15 KT TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH KDHT HAVING THE
BEST...WHILE STILL LOW...CHANCES OF THE TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND A
DRYLINE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
HERBACEOUS GREEN UP BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
FUELS REMAIN DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 221113
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO
15 KT TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH KDHT HAVING THE
BEST...WHILE STILL LOW...CHANCES OF THE TERMINALS. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. THE GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND A
DRYLINE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
HERBACEOUS GREEN UP BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
FUELS REMAIN DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/09







000
FXUS64 KSJT 221107
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
606 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals during the next 24 hours.

21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Look for temperatures slightly above seasonal normals to dominate
West Central Texas for the next 24 hours. Highs today mainly in the
mid to upper 80s look good. I thought numbers closer to the warmer
NAM for highs today looked best. For tonight, lows around 60 appear
reasonable.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

Severe thunderstorms are possible. A dryline will mix into West
Central Texas from the west Wednesday afternoon. Surface moisture
convergence, along and near this boundary, may initiate
Thunderstorms. Plus, a minor short wave aloft will also enhance the
thunderstorm potential. The best upper dynamics will be across our
northern counties. There, some severe thunderstorms are possible,
with large hail, damaging winds, and ever-present deadly lightning
dominating the threat list. Some thunderstorms may linger across
mainly the eastern half of West Central Texas Wednesday evening.
However, I believe all activity will end by midnight.

Huber

(Thursday through Saturday Night)

As an upper trough moves across and east of the plains on Thursday,
another front pushes south toward West Central Texas. Models
indicate this front will likely be dry, and I expect it will be
nothing more than a wind shift, with little if any cold air
advection. Thus, highs on Thursday in the 85 to 90 range look
reasonable. As surface high pressure builds across the region on
Friday, southerly low-level flow will return to West Central Texas.
Highs on Friday will likely be slightly warmer than Thursday, mainly
around 90 across all of West Central Texas.

Huber

(Saturday Night)

Another surface dryline may initiate thunderstorms Saturday evening
across West Central Texas. An upper trough to the west will produce
southwest flow aloft at that time. Thus, I did continue slight
chance PoPs for Saturday night across all of West Central Texas.
Plus, if thunderstorms do develop, I would expect at least some of
them will be severe thunderstorms. After all, it`s the time of year
for severe weather.

Huber

(Sunday through Monday)

Models bring another dry front across West Central Texas Sunday
afternoon. This front will bring slightly cooler air to West Central
Texas. As surface high pressure builds over the region on Monday,
plan for afternoon highs mainly in the 80 to 85 range.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  60  86  62  86 /   5   5  10  30   5
San Angelo  87  60  89  63  90 /   5   5  10  30   5
Junction  85  61  86  63  87 /   5   5  10  30   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$























000
FXUS64 KFWD 221104
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND IFR VISIBILITIES
ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING KGKY AND KACT WITH MVFR AT KDAL. FOG SHOULD
REMAIN PATCHY IN NATURE AND WILL ONLY MENTION FOG AT THESE SITES
FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO AMEND IF VISIBILITIES DROP AT OTHER
SITES. ALL FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14-15Z AND VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

HAMPSHIRE

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/
THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAD EXITED THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS OF 08Z
/3 AM CDT/. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER THE
RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME DENSE FOG MAY
OCCUR. FOR NOW HAVE JUST MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING
IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO WEATHERFORD TO TEMPLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
WILL DO AN UPDATE LATER TO ADD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT US RAIN MOVES FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST. THE LIGHT
NORTH SURFACE WINDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
TODAY AND EASTERLY TONIGHT. AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY
AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD
THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY. WE WILL BE IN ZONAL FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL HAVE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  62  84  64  83 /   0   0   0  20  10
WACO, TX              84  59  84  62  82 /   0   0   0  20  10
PARIS, TX             79  55  79  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
DENTON, TX            81  57  84  62  82 /   0   0   0  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          82  58  81  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
DALLAS, TX            84  63  83  64  82 /   0   0   0  20  10
TERRELL, TX           81  59  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  83  62  82 /   0   0   0  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            82  59  83  63  83 /   0   0   0  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  57  84  62  84 /   0   0   0  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /









000
FXUS64 KMAF 221056
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. A developing
surface trough across extreme west Texas is expected to
produce isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight
across areas mainly west of the Pecos River. Expected
areal coverage of storms is too low to mention at any
of the terminals. Southeast winds will increase to 10
to 20 mph and gusty by mid morning and continue through
this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A weak frontal boundary has pushed to the higher terrain of
southwest Texas early this morning, while a pair of outflow
boundaries from convection over central Texas have pushed west and
northwest over the area early this morning.  Low level moisture is
on the increase as a result.  Meanwhile aloft, an ua ridge is
traversing the region, and will continue eastward and flatten
somewhat Wednesday as an ua trough off the West Coast expands over
the western Conus.  Low level moisture may be great enough for
isolated convection to develop along and ahead of a developing
surface trough, and the higher terrain, at max heating this
afternoon.  Do not expect much organized convection since
instability will be rather pedestrian, topping out perhaps
around 500 J/Kg, and shear will mainly be only 25kt.  However,
very steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C and 0 to 6 km bulk
shear near 30kt in a few areas with better localized heating could
yield a stronger storm or two, especially considering a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Any storms should not last more than an hour or so
after sundown.  As height falls increase ahead of the broadening
western Conus ua trough tonight, low level moisture will push
westward into the higher terrain by Wednesday morning.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will push the moisture eastward Wednesday
with a dryline sharpening up over the Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon.  Models have latched onto a vorticity maximum at the base
of the ua trough that will translate eastward over the area
Wednesday.  Think the dryline will remain over the eastern fringe of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible due to the mentioned vorticity maximum and intense surface
heating overcoming any convective inhibition.  A low level jet will
also develop 24/00Z-24/03Z and increase low level convergence along
the dryline.  Steep lapse rates, bulk shear around 45kt and plenty
of instability will result in some storms producing large hail and
damaging winds, so will mention this in the forecast products.  To
the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more info.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Wednesday.  For
Thursday through Saturday, we`ll mainly have hot, dry and windy
conditions with continued fire weather concerns.  Rain chances do
not look very good, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Lower Trans Pecos Friday, and another dryline induced round of
convection Saturday as a large upper trough ejects northeastward
over the western Conus, which will result in the dryline taking
shape again over the region.  This same ua trough will cutoff, then
meander slowly east over the central U.S. Plains through early next
week.  We`ll still have dry and windy conditions Sunday and Monday,
but it will not be quite as hot.  Then, a strong cold front is
expected to move south across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
much cooler temperatures behind it.  Do not expect a freeze this
time, but high temperatures could end up 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, if not lower.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continue through much of the end of the week. The first day of concern
will be Wednesday as a large upper level storm system moves across the
northern states. A dryline will develop across the Permian Basin
in response with breezy and dry west to southwesterly winds possible
behind the dryline across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Will continue the fire weather watch for these areas
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After a lull Thursday fire weather concerns will increase again
by Friday through next weekend. The next in a series of potent
upper level storm systems is forecast to emerge onto the west
coast Friday and move to the high plains by next Sunday. Ahead
of this system an intense lee surface low and dryline is expected
to develop by Friday and continue through the weekend. As the
upper level system moves east toward the forecast area the dryline
will probably move progressively a little further eastward each day.
The better chance of critical fire weather conditions will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains Friday and
spread eastward to cover much of the forecast area Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  63  89  57  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              87  66  92  63  /   0   0  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                86  56  90  54  /  20  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  66  94  66  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  66  94  61  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  58  81  55  /  20  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   81  57  87  51  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   84  49  85  49  /  20  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  65  91  61  /  10   0  20  20
ODESSA TX                  85  67  90  62  /  10   0  20  20
WINK TX                    89  66  93  56  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/67





000
FXUS64 KHGX 220953
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
453 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF PRE-DAWN FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...
LOCALLY DENSE...AS WINDS HAVE LAID DOWN OVER MATAGORDA AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES. LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. A WEAK NORTHERN BOUNDARY WILL SLIP DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE DAY...HANGING UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
CITY AND THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MIGHT PROVIDE THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS...WITHIN AN MOISTENING LOWER ATMOSPHERE...TO
INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A
RESIDENT MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINT AIR MASS...WITH LOW 80 F
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RECEIVING
A BRIEF AFTERNOON DOWNPOUR OF HEARING A CLAP OF THUNDER OR TWO.

5H LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST...WITH LOW-MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLIES...WILL BE THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE STATE THAT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMS EARTH DAY. MILD
AND MORE HUMID MORNINGS IN THE AVERAGE MID 60S WILL WARM WELL INTO
THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THIS (NEAR) STATIONARY SHALLOW
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT...ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL
PERSIST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND...WITH DAILY CLOUD COVER BREAKS WORKING IN TANDEM
WITH GRADUALLY WARMING MID-LEVELS/INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES...EACH
SUBSEQUENT DAY WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LAST.

THE PASSAGE OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES TO SLIGHT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY REMAINS HIGH
IN CLOSING OUT THE WORK WEEK SO...AS EARLY MORNING WINDS DIE
OUT...FOG WILL BECOME MORE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD. MODELING HAS A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...REGIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEING THE TARGET DAYS. 85H
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE 20 DEG C THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE AVERAGE MIDDLE
80S. THE PERIOD ENDS UNDER MORE OVERCAST WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SETTLES INTO WESTERN TEXAS AND
SETS UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITHIN A MOIST AND WEAKLY-
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...OVER EASTERN TEXAS. 31

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY FEW CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO ONGOING TAFS IN THE 12Z PACKAGE.
PATCHY MVFR FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP. ALSO EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS W/ SOME HEATING. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MIGHT DRIFT INTO AREAS BETWEEN I-10 AND THE COAST DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISO TSRA. MEAGER AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTN
THRU LATE EVNG HOURS. PATCHY FOG/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOWARD
SUNRISE WED. 47

&&

.MARINE...
PARTS OF THE BAYS MIGHT SEE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS IN ASSOCIATION W/ WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE BRIEF IT DOES OCCUR WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING LATER IN THE DAY. GENERAL LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW
SEAS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. GRADIENT
TIGHTENS THIS WEEKEND SO WOULD EXPECT CORRESPONDING RISE IN
ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS (POSSIBLY TO CAUTION CRITERIA AT TIMES). 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      83  62  85  64  84 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              83  63  85  65  84 /  20  10  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  67  79  68  79 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 220942
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
442 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850HPA.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD
FRONT STALLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
A SOMEWHAT MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME MID TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THESE
WILL BE CARRIED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY
SUNRISE.  EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE RIDGE APPROACHES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND CARRY IT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  THE MOST OPTIMISTIC
ARE THE TTU-WRF AND NAM12 WHICH BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
MIX FAIRLY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION.  A SMALL INVERSION ON TOP OF
THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MEANS THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A CAP TO
OVERCOME DURING THE DAY AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  ONLY POSITIVE IS THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AND SUSTAIN ANY STORMS...ALLOWING THEM TO MAKE IT
ACROSS THE STATE LINE.  FEEL THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAKING
IT INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS IS PRETTY SLIM BUT NON-ZERO.  WILL
CONTINUE CARRY NON-MENTIONABLE POPS AROUND 10-12 PERCENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL THEN BE IN STORE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 15 MPH KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO GET THE LION/S SHARE OF ATTENTION IN THIS
LONG TERM PACKAGE COURTESY OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND ACTIVE
DRYLINE. FOLLOWING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EARLY MORNING
SPRINKLES ON WED FROM A LEAD IMPULSE...STRONG HEATING AND DEEP
MIXING LOOK TO EASILY BREACH THE MODEST EML LID BY EARLY-TO-MID
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS AND THE STREAK OF MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE BEEN
CONVECTING THIS DAY...DECIDED TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTORM WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS INITIATION IS A GOOD BET IN SUCH
A SETUP. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE DRYLINE RESIDING WEST
OF I-27 BY 18Z WED...SO ISOLATED TSTORMS WERE NUDGED WEST A BIT...
HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT WILL SEE TO IT THAT THESE
STORMS ARE SENT PACKING OFF THE CAPROCK BEFORE 00Z. POINT SOUNDINGS
ARE MOST IMPRESSIVE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SBCAPES APPROACH
3000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER LCL HEIGHTS RELATIVE TO LOCATIONS
FARTHER WEST. SUBSTANTIAL CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER ALONE
IS A RED FLAG FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...BUT ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ANY HAIL COULD CERTAINLY GROW TO
SIGNIFICANT SIZES. RATHER HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO FOSTER
DOWNBURSTS...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LESSER OF THE THREATS SO FAR.

THE DRYLINE SHOULD HANG UP IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WED EVENING
WITH THE BRUNT OF STORMS QUICKLY DEPARTING EAST...BUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY BE HARD TO COME BY AS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW MOVES IN WITH THE BASE OF THE 300MB TROUGH. OPTED TO LEAVE
SOME POPS IN THE EVENING OUT EAST BEFORE NIXING MENTION ALTOGETHER
BY 06Z. A COLD FRONT IS THEN DRAGGED SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING BEFORE A MODIFIED RETURN FLOW RESUMES ON FRI AHEAD OF
A MORE VIGOROUS AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON SATURDAY. DID KEEP
THE INHERITED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTN AND
NIGHT OFF THE CAPROCK AS SUCH A FORMIDABLE LOOKING TROUGH COULD
EASILY ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF EVEN RICHER MIXING RATIOS BACK
INTO THE REGION...WHILE ALSO PULLING THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN
MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST. WEST OF THIS DRYLINE...BLOWING DUST MAY BE
IN THE CARDS PROVIDED A 30-40 KNOT 850MB WIND MAX UNFOLDS AS PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THEREAFTER...THE NEG TILT TROUGH LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF AND BEGIN WOBBLING E-SE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE
A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS UPPER LOW...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER BOUT OF SOME FREEZING LOWS
IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THREE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOW LOOK A BIT
MORE ATTAINABLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WEST OF A MORTON
TO DIMMITT LINE. POST-DRYLINE WINDS BY THIS TIME SHOULD REACH 20
MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND
EVENTUALLY SINGLE DIGITS. THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONSISTENT WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE FARTHER NORTH IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
UNDER A 30-35 KNOT WIND MAX AT 850MB...SO THERE IS STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE NECESSARY WIND SPEED AND DURATION MAY PROVE TOO
INTERMITTENT DESPITE VERY LOW RH VALUES. THEREAFTER...A MORE
DEFINITIVE FIRE WEATHER SETUP MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK BY SATURDAY IN EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  54  83  45  75 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         82  56  84  47  76 /   0   0  20   0   0
PLAINVIEW     82  57  84  49  77 /   0   0  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  60  87  48  79 /   0  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       83  59  87  51  79 /   0   0  20   0   0
DENVER CITY   82  61  86  51  77 /   0  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  61  87  48  79 /   0   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  57  86  58  79 /   0   0  50  30   0
SPUR          83  59  86  54  80 /   0   0  30  20   0
ASPERMONT     86  59  88  60  80 /   0   0  20  30   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033.

&&

$$

14/93






000
FXUS64 KAMA 220940
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND A
DRYLINE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
HERBACEOUS GREEN UP BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
FUELS REMAIN DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON
&&


.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 220940
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND A
DRYLINE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
HERBACEOUS GREEN UP BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
FUELS REMAIN DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON
&&


.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 220940
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND A
DRYLINE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
HERBACEOUS GREEN UP BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
FUELS REMAIN DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON
&&


.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/09







000
FXUS64 KAMA 220940
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

THE FOCI OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
WEATHER ON WED, THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND THE POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. FOR YOU AVID AFD FOLLOWERS, CONSISTENT
MODELS MEAN THERE`S NOT MUCH NEW TO TALK ABOUT FOR WED, BUT I`LL
TRY. FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE YOU CAN SCRAP MY
ILL-CONCEIVED, WISHFUL IDEA THAT THE GFS WOULD ACTUALLY PAN OUT AND
BRING US RAIN AS THE GFS HAS NOW FALLEN IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND GEM.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR WE METEOROLOGISTS IS THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE WEEKEND IS INCREASING, THE BAD NEWS FOR PANHANDLE RESIDENTS IS
THAT WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT IN A DRY SLOT WIND BAG SOLUTION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAN`T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS
FALLING OF THE NM HIGH COUNTRY INTO THE WRN PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, AND HAVE UTILIZED 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT.
OTHERWISE...A BREEZY AND WARM DAY IS ON TAP. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUE
NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM...MAYBE EVEN HOVERING AROUND 60 IN
SOME PLACES.

WEDNESDAY...
THOSE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LEAD TO A WARM WEDNESDAY. BY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE WILL BE COMING TOGETHER NICELY AND SET THE
STAGE FOR A CLASSIC 2-PRONGED SPRING DAY OF POTENTIAL SVR IN THE
EAST AND VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GREAT AND DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX STRUCTURE, WITH 50 POPS IN THE
EAST AND 0 POPS IN THE WEST.

CHASER/WX NERD VERSION...
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS HAS BEEN EXCELLENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE ONLY DIFFERENCES INVOLVE TIMING/STRENGTH OF SPEED MAXES WHICH
WILL PLAY A PART IN THE EVOLUTION OF SVR WX. THE NAM STILL HAS THE
STRONGEST MID AND UPR FLOW...BUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE
GETTING SMALLER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE WEAK CAPPING AND
ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE CAPROCK...PROBABLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF AN
AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE. FAIRLY STRAIGHT AFTERNOON HODOGRAPHS WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST INSTABILITY
(1500-2000 J/KG) CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUPERCELL (SOME SPLITTING)
STORM MODE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING AND MODEST
FORCING...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD...MEANING
STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH TO A BROKEN
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN INITIAL ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ANY LINEAR ORGANIZATION WOULD ALSO POSE A WIND THREAT AS COLD POOL
GENERATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER. IN
ADDITION...0-1KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KTS MAY FAVOR A WELL BALANCED,
LONG-LIVED GUST FRONT.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR CHASERS BUT FORTUNATELY FOR EVERYONE ELSE...THE
TORNADO THREAT LOOKS LOW FOR SEVERAL REASONS: 1) WEAK LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT, 2) HIGH LCLS ABOVE 2000M, AND 3)
POTENTIAL STORM INTERACTION RESULTING IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS
INTO CLUSTERS OR A LINE. AS FAR AS THE LCLS...EVEN THE MODEL WITH THE
MOISTEST LOW LVL SOLUTION, THE SREF, SHOWS ABOUT A 70 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT LCLS STAY GREATER THAN 1500M EVERYWHERE THROUGH 03Z THU. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO WINDOW WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT REMAIN INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS CLOUD BASES LOWER
AND INITIAL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING PROMOTES INCREASING 0-1 SRH
VALUES. HOWEVER, BY THAT POINT FCST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION STRENGTHENING TO A LEVEL THAT WILL QUICKLY PRECLUDE SFC
BASED CONVECTION. WE DO LIKE TO ALWAYS INCLUDE THE CAVEAT THAT ANY
LOCALIZED BAROCLINIC ZONES (IE BOUNDARIES) COULD AUGMENT THE LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SUPERCELLS TO BECOME TORNADIC, AND
THOUGH UNLIKELY, WEAK TORNADOES ARE NOT UNHEARD OF WITH LCL HEIGHTS
ABOVE 2000M.

ALL SAID...HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND WITH THE
BEST SVR STORM WINDOW EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE FROM 2P-9P
WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOOK NICE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH THE MODELS ALL NOW LATCHING ONTO THE NEGATIVE TILT UPR SYSTEM
JUST TO OUR NW ON SAT...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING
ALL THE MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE H5 SPEED MAX BACK UNTIL SAT
NIGHT WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A GOOD BET ON SAT AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED IF THE H5/H7 SPEED MAX DOES COME IN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WHEN DEEP MIXING COULD GET US GUSTING TO 60 MPH. SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AS WELL...AND WIND HEADLINES
COULD BE NEEDED ALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF VERY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS ARE LOOKING LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD...THE PANHANDLES WILL
BE LUCKY TO GET THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITHOUT A FROST OR FREEZE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY.

SIMPSON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES IN VERY DRY AIR BEHIND A
DRYLINE...WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
HERBACEOUS GREEN UP BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE
FUELS REMAIN DRY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEFORE
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS QUELL THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK.

SIMPSON
&&


.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MOORE...POTTER...RANDALL...
     SHERMAN.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/09







000
FXUS64 KEPZ 220938
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
338 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOLLOWED BY WARM DRY
AND WINDY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOWEVER A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WILL SUSTAIN
SEASONABLY WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR TODAY UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL ADVANCE INTO ARIZONA PLACING THE
CWA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST. RESULTANT CIRCULATION WILL INCLUDE A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO THE WEST. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT ONLY MODEST
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY AROUND 35 TO 40 EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE. WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER WAVE PLUS LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH AXIS WILL THEREFORE GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. HOWEVER CAPES WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG SO
ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. GIVEN THAT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL BE AT LEAST 40 DEGREES F EXPECT LITTLE RAINFALL BUT A FEW
DOWNBURSTS OF OF 50 MPH OR GREATER.

UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY
INDUCING RATHER STRONG LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS ACCORDINGLY INCREASE WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUSTAINING INFLOW OF WARM DRY AIR MASS. THIS COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HEATING WILL PUSH MIXING HEIGHTS TO 600 MB CAUSING WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AND CAUSE SOME BLOWING DUST AS WELL.

TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
VERY WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES AT
MOST ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WESTERLY FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. BUT MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY GENERATING ANOTHER DEEP
LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO. STRENGTHENING GRADIENTS WILL
PRODUCE HIGH WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCLUDING 60 KT
WINDS AT 500 MB. AT MOMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO
EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY REQUIRING HIGH
WIND WARNINGS. TRACK OF UPPER SYSTEM AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALSO
SUGGEST THAT DESPITE STRONG DYNAMICS/UPWARD MOTION THERE WILL BE
TOO LITTLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE PRECIP.

UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT WITH LONG
RANGE MODELS INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING VERY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z AND 06Z WITH A FEW STORMS
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND BLOWING DUST. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS AROUND 5000
FEET AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MOSTLY AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
SUSTAIN TRANSPORT OF WARM DRY AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 10 AND 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING WHICH WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALLS BUT
MAY GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 50 MPH. THUS STORMS WITH DRY
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO CAUSE
DRY WINDY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS. AN EVEN STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 89  63  87  60  84 /   0  20   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           87  54  85  53  82 /  10  20   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              87  54  85  52  80 /   0  10   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              84  55  84  52  79 /   0  20   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              63  42  60  36  56 /  20  20   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   85  56  81  53  78 /   0  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             80  50  76  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  88  51  83  47  80 /   0  10   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               87  53  81  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      88  63  87  58  82 /   0  20   0   0   0
DELL CITY               83  50  82  46  84 /  10  20   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            92  61  91  56  88 /  10  20   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              81  53  80  52  76 /   0  20   0   0   0
FABENS                  89  59  86  54  83 /   0  20   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            88  58  86  52  82 /   0  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          85  62  83  62  80 /   0  10   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           86  46  83  45  80 /   0  10   0   0   0
HATCH                   87  49  82  46  79 /   0  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                86  60  82  53  79 /   0  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               87  54  86  53  82 /   0  20   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 71  46  71  42  68 /  20  20   0   0   0
MESCALERO               73  42  72  37  69 /  20  20   0   0   0
TIMBERON                71  42  70  37  67 /  10  20   0   0   0
WINSTON                 79  44  76  40  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               82  56  79  51  75 /   0  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               83  54  79  50  77 /   0  10   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            78  44  74  37  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  81  49  78  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   83  40  77  38  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              82  37  75  35  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 80  51  77  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  88  56  83  52  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 87  53  82  48  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          90  56  84  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              85  50  80  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

05 ROGASH





000
FXUS64 KSJT 220927
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
428 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Look for temperatures slightly above seasonal normals to dominate
West Central Texas for the next 24 hours. Highs today mainly in the
mid to upper 80s look good. I thought numbers closer to the warmer
NAM for highs today looked best. For tonight, lows around 60 appear
reasonable.

Huber

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

Severe thunderstorms are possible. A dryline will mix into West
Central Texas from the west Wednesday afternoon. Surface moisture
convergence, along and near this boundary, may initiate
Thunderstorms. Plus, a minor short wave aloft will also enhance the
thunderstorm potential. The best upper dynamics will be across our
northern counties. There, some severe thunderstorms are possible,
with large hail, damaging winds, and ever-present deadly lightning
dominating the threat list. Some thunderstorms may linger across
mainly the eastern half of West Central Texas Wednesday evening.
However, I believe all activity will end by midnight.

Huber

(Thursday through Saturday Night)

As an upper trough moves across and east of the plains on Thursday,
another front pushes south toward West Central Texas. Models
indicate this front will likely be dry, and I expect it will be
nothing more than a wind shift, with little if any cold air
advection. Thus, highs on Thursday in the 85 to 90 range look
reasonable. As surface high pressure builds across the region on
Friday, southerly low-level flow will return to West Central Texas.
Highs on Friday will likely be slightly warmer than Thursday, mainly
around 90 across all of West Central Texas.

Huber

(Saturday Night)

Another surface dryline may initiate thunderstorms Saturday evening
across West Central Texas. An upper trough to the west will produce
southwest flow aloft at that time. Thus, I did continue slight
chance PoPs for Saturday night across all of West Central Texas.
Plus, if thunderstorms do develop, I would expect at least some of
them will be severe thunderstorms. After all, it`s the time of year
for severe weather.

Huber

(Sunday through Monday)

Models bring another dry front across West Central Texas Sunday
afternoon. This front will bring slightly cooler air to West Central
Texas. As surface high pressure builds over the region on Monday,
plan for afternoon highs mainly in the 80 to 85 range.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  60  86  62  86 /   5   5  10  30   5
San Angelo  87  60  89  63  90 /   5   5  10  30   5
Junction  85  61  86  63  87 /   5   5  10  30   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Huber





000
FXUS64 KBRO 220921 CCA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
418 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LARGE SWATH OF DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS
MIDLEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE SFC...TEMPS WILL AGAIN JUMP HIGHER
INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESSER TODAY
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT DRIER AIR ALOFT.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS
AND BOTTLES UP LLVL MOISTURE. INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
THAT CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SFC...LIMITING FOG FORMATION.
LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE 60S AGAIN DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNING GULF MOISTURE.

MINIMAL DIFFERENCES NOTED FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE UNDERCUT BY SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE LAYER AT THE SFC.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S. NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID
90S ACROSS THE WEST. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY COURTESY OF LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUNDAY DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ON MONDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HEAT SPIKE. THE ECMWF
MOS IS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MEX MOS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...BOTH DAYS. WILL BUMP UP THE INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT BELOW
ECMWF MOS NUMBERS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING AND
LIMITED LIFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. BUT
WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10 POPS THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...L/V WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE NW GULF.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS WHICH IS ALLOWING SEAS TO
CONTINUE RELAXING RIGHT AT 2 FEET. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
KANSAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESPOND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ONGOING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS BRIEFLY DECREASE FOR FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /  10  10   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          85  67  84  69 /  10  10   0  10
HARLINGEN            85  65  84  69 /  10  10   0  10
MCALLEN              88  68  87  69 /  10  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      89  69  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  67  77  69 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/63/CAMPBELL









000
FXUS64 KCRP 220921
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
421 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CI
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FOG STILL A POSSIBILITY BY SUNRISE. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
DRIFT INTO OUR CWA TODAY BEFORE LOSING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG /IF IT DEVELOPS/ WILL MIX OUT BY MID/LATE
MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY WILL BE LOW...BUT NOT NIL. A WEAK MCV WAS
NOTED ACROSS EWX CWA EARLIER TONIGHT AND WITH REMNANT MCV MOVING
SOUTH...ALONG WITH INTERACTION FROM WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
POSSIBLE SEABREEZE ACTIVATION /AND VERY WEAK H5 VORT MAX SLIDING
S/...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE VERY
WARM TO HOT WITH MANY INLAND LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 90 DEGREES.
DRYING OF ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN PROG TO OCCUR TONIGHT AND WED
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
MAX/MIN TEMPS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN BY WED AFTERNOON
AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC CONTINUE TO PROG AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS
TX/SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER FORCING WL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA... ANTICIPATE
THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS SYSTEM AND PWAT VALUES ABOVE
NORMAL WL RESULT IN ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE WRN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND HIGH CIN VALUES SHOULD PRECLUDE
CONVECTION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO PROG ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM TO ENTER THE WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE SLOWLY
EWD OVER THE CNTRL CONUS SUNDAY/MONDAY. DESPITE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...BOTH SOLNS SUGGEST ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS TO AFFECT THE
CWA/MSA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT CIN VALUES DRG THIS PERIOD. YET...THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MSTR MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH PROGS DRY
ADABATIC FLOW ACRS THE SIERRA MADRE INTO THE WRN CWA DRG THE AFTN
HOURS SUNDAY/MONDAY RESULTING IN HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             92  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM





000
FXUS64 KCRP 220921
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
421 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CI
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FOG STILL A POSSIBILITY BY SUNRISE. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
DRIFT INTO OUR CWA TODAY BEFORE LOSING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG /IF IT DEVELOPS/ WILL MIX OUT BY MID/LATE
MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY WILL BE LOW...BUT NOT NIL. A WEAK MCV WAS
NOTED ACROSS EWX CWA EARLIER TONIGHT AND WITH REMNANT MCV MOVING
SOUTH...ALONG WITH INTERACTION FROM WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
POSSIBLE SEABREEZE ACTIVATION /AND VERY WEAK H5 VORT MAX SLIDING
S/...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE VERY
WARM TO HOT WITH MANY INLAND LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 90 DEGREES.
DRYING OF ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN PROG TO OCCUR TONIGHT AND WED
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
MAX/MIN TEMPS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN BY WED AFTERNOON
AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC CONTINUE TO PROG AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS
TX/SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER FORCING WL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA... ANTICIPATE
THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS SYSTEM AND PWAT VALUES ABOVE
NORMAL WL RESULT IN ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE WRN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND HIGH CIN VALUES SHOULD PRECLUDE
CONVECTION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO PROG ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM TO ENTER THE WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE SLOWLY
EWD OVER THE CNTRL CONUS SUNDAY/MONDAY. DESPITE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECWMF WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...BOTH SOLNS SUGGEST ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS TO AFFECT THE
CWA/MSA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT CIN VALUES DRG THIS PERIOD. YET...THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MSTR MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED
CONVECTION. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH PROGS DRY
ADABATIC FLOW ACRS THE SIERRA MADRE INTO THE WRN CWA DRG THE AFTN
HOURS SUNDAY/MONDAY RESULTING IN HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  86  67  85  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          88  64  85  66  85  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  71  93  70  96  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             92  65  90  65  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          82  67  80  68  77  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  67  92  66  93  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        90  65  88  68  89  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       82  68  79  68  77  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM




000
FXUS64 KMAF 220911
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
411 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A weak frontal boundary has pushed to the higher terrain of
southwest Texas early this morning, while a pair of outflow
boundaries from convection over central Texas have pushed west and
northwest over the area early this morning.  Low level moisture is
on the increase as a result.  Meanwhile aloft, an ua ridge is
traversing the region, and will continue eastward and flatten
somewhat Wednesday as an ua trough off the West Coast expands over
the western Conus.  Low level moisture may be great enough for
isolated convection to develop along and ahead of a developing
surface trough, and the higher terrain, at max heating this
afternoon.  Do not expect much organized convection since
instability will be rather pedestrian, topping out perhaps
around 500 J/Kg, and shear will mainly be only 25kt.  However,
very steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C and 0 to 6 km bulk
shear near 30kt in a few areas with better localized heating could
yield a stronger storm or two, especially considering a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Any storms should not last more than an hour or so
after sundown.  As height falls increase ahead of the broadening
western Conus ua trough tonight, low level moisture will push
westward into the higher terrain by Wednesday morning.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will push the moisture eastward Wednesday
with a dryline sharpening up over the Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon.  Models have latched onto a vorticity maximum at the base
of the ua trough that will translate eastward over the area
Wednesday.  Think the dryline will remain over the eastern fringe of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible due to the mentioned vorticity maximum and intense surface
heating overcoming any convective inhibition.  A low level jet will
also develop 24/00Z-24/03Z and increase low level convergence along
the dryline.  Steep lapse rates, bulk shear around 45kt and plenty
of instability will result in some storms producing large hail and
damaging winds, so will mention this in the forecast products.  To
the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more info.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Wednesday.  For
Thursday through Saturday, we`ll mainly have hot, dry and windy
conditions with continued fire weather concerns.  Rain chances do
not look very good, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Lower Trans Pecos Friday, and another dryline induced round of
convection Saturday as a large upper trough ejects northeastward
over the western Conus, which will result in the dryline taking
shape again over the region.  This same ua trough will cutoff, then
meander slowly east over the central U.S. Plains through early next
week.  We`ll still have dry and windy conditions Sunday and Monday,
but it will not be quite as hot.  Then, a strong cold front is
expected to move south across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
much cooler temperatures behind it.  Do not expect a freeze this
time, but high temperatures could end up 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, if not lower.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continue through much of the end of the week. The first day of concern
will be Wednesday as a large upper level storm system moves across the
northern states. A dryline will develop across the Permian Basin
in response with breezy and dry west to southwesterly winds possible
behind the dryline across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Will continue the fire weather watch for these areas
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After a lull Thursday fire weather concerns will increase again
by Friday through next weekend. The next in a series of potent
upper level storm systems is forecast to emerge onto the west
coast Friday and move to the high plains by next Sunday. Ahead
of this system an intense lee surface low and dryline is expected
to develop by Friday and continue through the weekend. As the
upper level system moves east toward the forecast area the dryline
will probably move progressively a little further eastward each day.
The better chance of critical fire weather conditions will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains Friday and
spread eastward to cover much of the forecast area Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  63  89  57  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              87  66  92  63  /   0   0  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                86  56  90  54  /  20  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  66  94  66  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  66  94  61  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  58  81  55  /  20  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   81  57  87  51  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   84  49  85  49  /  20  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  65  91  61  /  10   0  20  20
ODESSA TX                  85  67  90  62  /  10   0  20  20
WINK TX                    89  66  93  56  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/67





000
FXUS64 KMAF 220911
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
411 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A weak frontal boundary has pushed to the higher terrain of
southwest Texas early this morning, while a pair of outflow
boundaries from convection over central Texas have pushed west and
northwest over the area early this morning.  Low level moisture is
on the increase as a result.  Meanwhile aloft, an ua ridge is
traversing the region, and will continue eastward and flatten
somewhat Wednesday as an ua trough off the West Coast expands over
the western Conus.  Low level moisture may be great enough for
isolated convection to develop along and ahead of a developing
surface trough, and the higher terrain, at max heating this
afternoon.  Do not expect much organized convection since
instability will be rather pedestrian, topping out perhaps
around 500 J/Kg, and shear will mainly be only 25kt.  However,
very steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C and 0 to 6 km bulk
shear near 30kt in a few areas with better localized heating could
yield a stronger storm or two, especially considering a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Any storms should not last more than an hour or so
after sundown.  As height falls increase ahead of the broadening
western Conus ua trough tonight, low level moisture will push
westward into the higher terrain by Wednesday morning.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will push the moisture eastward Wednesday
with a dryline sharpening up over the Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon.  Models have latched onto a vorticity maximum at the base
of the ua trough that will translate eastward over the area
Wednesday.  Think the dryline will remain over the eastern fringe of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible due to the mentioned vorticity maximum and intense surface
heating overcoming any convective inhibition.  A low level jet will
also develop 24/00Z-24/03Z and increase low level convergence along
the dryline.  Steep lapse rates, bulk shear around 45kt and plenty
of instability will result in some storms producing large hail and
damaging winds, so will mention this in the forecast products.  To
the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more info.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Wednesday.  For
Thursday through Saturday, we`ll mainly have hot, dry and windy
conditions with continued fire weather concerns.  Rain chances do
not look very good, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Lower Trans Pecos Friday, and another dryline induced round of
convection Saturday as a large upper trough ejects northeastward
over the western Conus, which will result in the dryline taking
shape again over the region.  This same ua trough will cutoff, then
meander slowly east over the central U.S. Plains through early next
week.  We`ll still have dry and windy conditions Sunday and Monday,
but it will not be quite as hot.  Then, a strong cold front is
expected to move south across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
much cooler temperatures behind it.  Do not expect a freeze this
time, but high temperatures could end up 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, if not lower.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continue through much of the end of the week. The first day of concern
will be Wednesday as a large upper level storm system moves across the
northern states. A dryline will develop across the Permian Basin
in response with breezy and dry west to southwesterly winds possible
behind the dryline across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Will continue the fire weather watch for these areas
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After a lull Thursday fire weather concerns will increase again
by Friday through next weekend. The next in a series of potent
upper level storm systems is forecast to emerge onto the west
coast Friday and move to the high plains by next Sunday. Ahead
of this system an intense lee surface low and dryline is expected
to develop by Friday and continue through the weekend. As the
upper level system moves east toward the forecast area the dryline
will probably move progressively a little further eastward each day.
The better chance of critical fire weather conditions will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains Friday and
spread eastward to cover much of the forecast area Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  63  89  57  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              87  66  92  63  /   0   0  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                86  56  90  54  /  20  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  66  94  66  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  66  94  61  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  58  81  55  /  20  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   81  57  87  51  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   84  49  85  49  /  20  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  65  91  61  /  10   0  20  20
ODESSA TX                  85  67  90  62  /  10   0  20  20
WINK TX                    89  66  93  56  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 220911
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
411 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LARGE SWATH OF DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS
MIDLEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE SFC...TEMPS WILL AGAIN JUMP HIGHER
INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESSER TODAY
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT DRIER AIR ALOFT.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS
AND BOTTLES UP LLVL MOISTURE. INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
THAT CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SFC...LIMITING FOG FORMATION.
LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE 60S AGAIN DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNING GULF MOISTURE.

MINIMAL DIFFERENCES NOTED FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE UNDERCUT BY SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE LAYER AT THE SFC.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S. NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID
90S ACROSS THE WEST. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY COURTESY OF LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUNDAY DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ON MONDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HEAT SPIKE. THE ECMWF
MOS IS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MEX MOS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST BOTH DAYS. WILL BUMP UP THE INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT BELOW
ECMWF MOS NUMBERS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING AND
LIMITED LIFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. BUT
WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10 POPS THROUGH SUNDAY. A SILENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...L/V WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE NW GULF.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS WHICH IS ALLOWING SEAS TO
CONTINUE RELAXING RIGHT AT 2 FEET. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
KANSAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESPOND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ONGOING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS BRIEFLY DECREASE FOR FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /  10  10   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          85  67  84  69 /  10  10   0  10
HARLINGEN            85  65  84  69 /  10  10   0  10
MCALLEN              88  68  87  69 /  10  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      89  69  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  67  77  69 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/63/CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KMAF 220911
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
411 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A weak frontal boundary has pushed to the higher terrain of
southwest Texas early this morning, while a pair of outflow
boundaries from convection over central Texas have pushed west and
northwest over the area early this morning.  Low level moisture is
on the increase as a result.  Meanwhile aloft, an ua ridge is
traversing the region, and will continue eastward and flatten
somewhat Wednesday as an ua trough off the West Coast expands over
the western Conus.  Low level moisture may be great enough for
isolated convection to develop along and ahead of a developing
surface trough, and the higher terrain, at max heating this
afternoon.  Do not expect much organized convection since
instability will be rather pedestrian, topping out perhaps
around 500 J/Kg, and shear will mainly be only 25kt.  However,
very steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C and 0 to 6 km bulk
shear near 30kt in a few areas with better localized heating could
yield a stronger storm or two, especially considering a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Any storms should not last more than an hour or so
after sundown.  As height falls increase ahead of the broadening
western Conus ua trough tonight, low level moisture will push
westward into the higher terrain by Wednesday morning.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will push the moisture eastward Wednesday
with a dryline sharpening up over the Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon.  Models have latched onto a vorticity maximum at the base
of the ua trough that will translate eastward over the area
Wednesday.  Think the dryline will remain over the eastern fringe of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible due to the mentioned vorticity maximum and intense surface
heating overcoming any convective inhibition.  A low level jet will
also develop 24/00Z-24/03Z and increase low level convergence along
the dryline.  Steep lapse rates, bulk shear around 45kt and plenty
of instability will result in some storms producing large hail and
damaging winds, so will mention this in the forecast products.  To
the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more info.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Wednesday.  For
Thursday through Saturday, we`ll mainly have hot, dry and windy
conditions with continued fire weather concerns.  Rain chances do
not look very good, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Lower Trans Pecos Friday, and another dryline induced round of
convection Saturday as a large upper trough ejects northeastward
over the western Conus, which will result in the dryline taking
shape again over the region.  This same ua trough will cutoff, then
meander slowly east over the central U.S. Plains through early next
week.  We`ll still have dry and windy conditions Sunday and Monday,
but it will not be quite as hot.  Then, a strong cold front is
expected to move south across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
much cooler temperatures behind it.  Do not expect a freeze this
time, but high temperatures could end up 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, if not lower.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continue through much of the end of the week. The first day of concern
will be Wednesday as a large upper level storm system moves across the
northern states. A dryline will develop across the Permian Basin
in response with breezy and dry west to southwesterly winds possible
behind the dryline across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Will continue the fire weather watch for these areas
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After a lull Thursday fire weather concerns will increase again
by Friday through next weekend. The next in a series of potent
upper level storm systems is forecast to emerge onto the west
coast Friday and move to the high plains by next Sunday. Ahead
of this system an intense lee surface low and dryline is expected
to develop by Friday and continue through the weekend. As the
upper level system moves east toward the forecast area the dryline
will probably move progressively a little further eastward each day.
The better chance of critical fire weather conditions will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains Friday and
spread eastward to cover much of the forecast area Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  63  89  57  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              87  66  92  63  /   0   0  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                86  56  90  54  /  20  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  66  94  66  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  66  94  61  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  58  81  55  /  20  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   81  57  87  51  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   84  49  85  49  /  20  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  65  91  61  /  10   0  20  20
ODESSA TX                  85  67  90  62  /  10   0  20  20
WINK TX                    89  66  93  56  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/67





000
FXUS64 KMAF 220911
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
411 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A weak frontal boundary has pushed to the higher terrain of
southwest Texas early this morning, while a pair of outflow
boundaries from convection over central Texas have pushed west and
northwest over the area early this morning.  Low level moisture is
on the increase as a result.  Meanwhile aloft, an ua ridge is
traversing the region, and will continue eastward and flatten
somewhat Wednesday as an ua trough off the West Coast expands over
the western Conus.  Low level moisture may be great enough for
isolated convection to develop along and ahead of a developing
surface trough, and the higher terrain, at max heating this
afternoon.  Do not expect much organized convection since
instability will be rather pedestrian, topping out perhaps
around 500 J/Kg, and shear will mainly be only 25kt.  However,
very steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C and 0 to 6 km bulk
shear near 30kt in a few areas with better localized heating could
yield a stronger storm or two, especially considering a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Any storms should not last more than an hour or so
after sundown.  As height falls increase ahead of the broadening
western Conus ua trough tonight, low level moisture will push
westward into the higher terrain by Wednesday morning.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will push the moisture eastward Wednesday
with a dryline sharpening up over the Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon.  Models have latched onto a vorticity maximum at the base
of the ua trough that will translate eastward over the area
Wednesday.  Think the dryline will remain over the eastern fringe of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible due to the mentioned vorticity maximum and intense surface
heating overcoming any convective inhibition.  A low level jet will
also develop 24/00Z-24/03Z and increase low level convergence along
the dryline.  Steep lapse rates, bulk shear around 45kt and plenty
of instability will result in some storms producing large hail and
damaging winds, so will mention this in the forecast products.  To
the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more info.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Wednesday.  For
Thursday through Saturday, we`ll mainly have hot, dry and windy
conditions with continued fire weather concerns.  Rain chances do
not look very good, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Lower Trans Pecos Friday, and another dryline induced round of
convection Saturday as a large upper trough ejects northeastward
over the western Conus, which will result in the dryline taking
shape again over the region.  This same ua trough will cutoff, then
meander slowly east over the central U.S. Plains through early next
week.  We`ll still have dry and windy conditions Sunday and Monday,
but it will not be quite as hot.  Then, a strong cold front is
expected to move south across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
much cooler temperatures behind it.  Do not expect a freeze this
time, but high temperatures could end up 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, if not lower.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continue through much of the end of the week. The first day of concern
will be Wednesday as a large upper level storm system moves across the
northern states. A dryline will develop across the Permian Basin
in response with breezy and dry west to southwesterly winds possible
behind the dryline across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Will continue the fire weather watch for these areas
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After a lull Thursday fire weather concerns will increase again
by Friday through next weekend. The next in a series of potent
upper level storm systems is forecast to emerge onto the west
coast Friday and move to the high plains by next Sunday. Ahead
of this system an intense lee surface low and dryline is expected
to develop by Friday and continue through the weekend. As the
upper level system moves east toward the forecast area the dryline
will probably move progressively a little further eastward each day.
The better chance of critical fire weather conditions will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains Friday and
spread eastward to cover much of the forecast area Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  63  89  57  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              87  66  92  63  /   0   0  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                86  56  90  54  /  20  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  66  94  66  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  66  94  61  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  58  81  55  /  20  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   81  57  87  51  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   84  49  85  49  /  20  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  65  91  61  /  10   0  20  20
ODESSA TX                  85  67  90  62  /  10   0  20  20
WINK TX                    89  66  93  56  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 220911
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
411 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LARGE SWATH OF DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS
MIDLEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE SFC...TEMPS WILL AGAIN JUMP HIGHER
INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESSER TODAY
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT DRIER AIR ALOFT.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS
AND BOTTLES UP LLVL MOISTURE. INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
THAT CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SFC...LIMITING FOG FORMATION.
LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE 60S AGAIN DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNING GULF MOISTURE.

MINIMAL DIFFERENCES NOTED FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE UNDERCUT BY SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE LAYER AT THE SFC.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S. NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID
90S ACROSS THE WEST. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY COURTESY OF LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUNDAY DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ON MONDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HEAT SPIKE. THE ECMWF
MOS IS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MEX MOS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST BOTH DAYS. WILL BUMP UP THE INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT BELOW
ECMWF MOS NUMBERS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING AND
LIMITED LIFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. BUT
WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10 POPS THROUGH SUNDAY. A SILENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...L/V WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE NW GULF.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS WHICH IS ALLOWING SEAS TO
CONTINUE RELAXING RIGHT AT 2 FEET. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
KANSAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESPOND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ONGOING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS BRIEFLY DECREASE FOR FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /  10  10   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          85  67  84  69 /  10  10   0  10
HARLINGEN            85  65  84  69 /  10  10   0  10
MCALLEN              88  68  87  69 /  10  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      89  69  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  67  77  69 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/63/CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KMAF 220911
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
411 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A weak frontal boundary has pushed to the higher terrain of
southwest Texas early this morning, while a pair of outflow
boundaries from convection over central Texas have pushed west and
northwest over the area early this morning.  Low level moisture is
on the increase as a result.  Meanwhile aloft, an ua ridge is
traversing the region, and will continue eastward and flatten
somewhat Wednesday as an ua trough off the West Coast expands over
the western Conus.  Low level moisture may be great enough for
isolated convection to develop along and ahead of a developing
surface trough, and the higher terrain, at max heating this
afternoon.  Do not expect much organized convection since
instability will be rather pedestrian, topping out perhaps
around 500 J/Kg, and shear will mainly be only 25kt.  However,
very steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C and 0 to 6 km bulk
shear near 30kt in a few areas with better localized heating could
yield a stronger storm or two, especially considering a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Any storms should not last more than an hour or so
after sundown.  As height falls increase ahead of the broadening
western Conus ua trough tonight, low level moisture will push
westward into the higher terrain by Wednesday morning.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will push the moisture eastward Wednesday
with a dryline sharpening up over the Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon.  Models have latched onto a vorticity maximum at the base
of the ua trough that will translate eastward over the area
Wednesday.  Think the dryline will remain over the eastern fringe of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible due to the mentioned vorticity maximum and intense surface
heating overcoming any convective inhibition.  A low level jet will
also develop 24/00Z-24/03Z and increase low level convergence along
the dryline.  Steep lapse rates, bulk shear around 45kt and plenty
of instability will result in some storms producing large hail and
damaging winds, so will mention this in the forecast products.  To
the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more info.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Wednesday.  For
Thursday through Saturday, we`ll mainly have hot, dry and windy
conditions with continued fire weather concerns.  Rain chances do
not look very good, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Lower Trans Pecos Friday, and another dryline induced round of
convection Saturday as a large upper trough ejects northeastward
over the western Conus, which will result in the dryline taking
shape again over the region.  This same ua trough will cutoff, then
meander slowly east over the central U.S. Plains through early next
week.  We`ll still have dry and windy conditions Sunday and Monday,
but it will not be quite as hot.  Then, a strong cold front is
expected to move south across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
much cooler temperatures behind it.  Do not expect a freeze this
time, but high temperatures could end up 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, if not lower.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continue through much of the end of the week. The first day of concern
will be Wednesday as a large upper level storm system moves across the
northern states. A dryline will develop across the Permian Basin
in response with breezy and dry west to southwesterly winds possible
behind the dryline across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Will continue the fire weather watch for these areas
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After a lull Thursday fire weather concerns will increase again
by Friday through next weekend. The next in a series of potent
upper level storm systems is forecast to emerge onto the west
coast Friday and move to the high plains by next Sunday. Ahead
of this system an intense lee surface low and dryline is expected
to develop by Friday and continue through the weekend. As the
upper level system moves east toward the forecast area the dryline
will probably move progressively a little further eastward each day.
The better chance of critical fire weather conditions will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains Friday and
spread eastward to cover much of the forecast area Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  63  89  57  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              87  66  92  63  /   0   0  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                86  56  90  54  /  20  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  66  94  66  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  66  94  61  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  58  81  55  /  20  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   81  57  87  51  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   84  49  85  49  /  20  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  65  91  61  /  10   0  20  20
ODESSA TX                  85  67  90  62  /  10   0  20  20
WINK TX                    89  66  93  56  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/67





000
FXUS64 KMAF 220911
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
411 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A weak frontal boundary has pushed to the higher terrain of
southwest Texas early this morning, while a pair of outflow
boundaries from convection over central Texas have pushed west and
northwest over the area early this morning.  Low level moisture is
on the increase as a result.  Meanwhile aloft, an ua ridge is
traversing the region, and will continue eastward and flatten
somewhat Wednesday as an ua trough off the West Coast expands over
the western Conus.  Low level moisture may be great enough for
isolated convection to develop along and ahead of a developing
surface trough, and the higher terrain, at max heating this
afternoon.  Do not expect much organized convection since
instability will be rather pedestrian, topping out perhaps
around 500 J/Kg, and shear will mainly be only 25kt.  However,
very steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C and 0 to 6 km bulk
shear near 30kt in a few areas with better localized heating could
yield a stronger storm or two, especially considering a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Any storms should not last more than an hour or so
after sundown.  As height falls increase ahead of the broadening
western Conus ua trough tonight, low level moisture will push
westward into the higher terrain by Wednesday morning.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will push the moisture eastward Wednesday
with a dryline sharpening up over the Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon.  Models have latched onto a vorticity maximum at the base
of the ua trough that will translate eastward over the area
Wednesday.  Think the dryline will remain over the eastern fringe of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible due to the mentioned vorticity maximum and intense surface
heating overcoming any convective inhibition.  A low level jet will
also develop 24/00Z-24/03Z and increase low level convergence along
the dryline.  Steep lapse rates, bulk shear around 45kt and plenty
of instability will result in some storms producing large hail and
damaging winds, so will mention this in the forecast products.  To
the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more info.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Wednesday.  For
Thursday through Saturday, we`ll mainly have hot, dry and windy
conditions with continued fire weather concerns.  Rain chances do
not look very good, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Lower Trans Pecos Friday, and another dryline induced round of
convection Saturday as a large upper trough ejects northeastward
over the western Conus, which will result in the dryline taking
shape again over the region.  This same ua trough will cutoff, then
meander slowly east over the central U.S. Plains through early next
week.  We`ll still have dry and windy conditions Sunday and Monday,
but it will not be quite as hot.  Then, a strong cold front is
expected to move south across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
much cooler temperatures behind it.  Do not expect a freeze this
time, but high temperatures could end up 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, if not lower.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continue through much of the end of the week. The first day of concern
will be Wednesday as a large upper level storm system moves across the
northern states. A dryline will develop across the Permian Basin
in response with breezy and dry west to southwesterly winds possible
behind the dryline across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Will continue the fire weather watch for these areas
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After a lull Thursday fire weather concerns will increase again
by Friday through next weekend. The next in a series of potent
upper level storm systems is forecast to emerge onto the west
coast Friday and move to the high plains by next Sunday. Ahead
of this system an intense lee surface low and dryline is expected
to develop by Friday and continue through the weekend. As the
upper level system moves east toward the forecast area the dryline
will probably move progressively a little further eastward each day.
The better chance of critical fire weather conditions will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains Friday and
spread eastward to cover much of the forecast area Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  63  89  57  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              87  66  92  63  /   0   0  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                86  56  90  54  /  20  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  66  94  66  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  66  94  61  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  58  81  55  /  20  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   81  57  87  51  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   84  49  85  49  /  20  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  65  91  61  /  10   0  20  20
ODESSA TX                  85  67  90  62  /  10   0  20  20
WINK TX                    89  66  93  56  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/67





000
FXUS64 KBRO 220911
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
411 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LARGE SWATH OF DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS
MIDLEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE SFC...TEMPS WILL AGAIN JUMP HIGHER
INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESSER TODAY
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT DRIER AIR ALOFT.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS
AND BOTTLES UP LLVL MOISTURE. INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
THAT CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SFC...LIMITING FOG FORMATION.
LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE 60S AGAIN DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNING GULF MOISTURE.

MINIMAL DIFFERENCES NOTED FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE UNDERCUT BY SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE LAYER AT THE SFC.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S. NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID
90S ACROSS THE WEST. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY COURTESY OF LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUNDAY DUE TO A DRYLINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ON MONDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HEAT SPIKE. THE ECMWF
MOS IS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MEX MOS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST BOTH DAYS. WILL BUMP UP THE INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT BELOW
ECMWF MOS NUMBERS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING AND
LIMITED LIFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. BUT
WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10 POPS THROUGH SUNDAY. A SILENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...L/V WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE NW GULF.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS WHICH IS ALLOWING SEAS TO
CONTINUE RELAXING RIGHT AT 2 FEET. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
KANSAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESPOND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ONGOING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS BRIEFLY DECREASE FOR FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  68  80  70 /  10  10   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          85  67  84  69 /  10  10   0  10
HARLINGEN            85  65  84  69 /  10  10   0  10
MCALLEN              88  68  87  69 /  10  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      89  69  90  69 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  67  77  69 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64/63/CAMPBELL






000
FXUS64 KEWX 220841
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
341 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER
AN EXCITING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...BUT IT/S A LITTLE SLOW TO ARRIVE AT THE SURFACE BEHIND A
VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS BOUNDARY...AND A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY BEFORE THE
EVENING STORM/S DISSIPATED...COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF U.S. 90 THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A STORM OR TWO... BUT MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW NO CONVECTION...
SO WILL LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. LATE
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE DRY
LINE AND AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL FORCING FROM CONVECTION IN THE WEST
SHOULD ACT AS THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE PUT 20 PERCENT POPS TO COVER THIS...BUT
THEY COULD END UP HIGHER DEPENDING ON THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION THAT SETS UP EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A CUTOFF LOW IS PROJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. MOIST GULF FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
CONVECTION SATURDAY EVENING...SO HAVE PLACED 20 PERCENT POPS
ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIRMASS IN IT/S WAKE. WENT WITH A BLEND AT THIS FORECAST
RANGE...BUT THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT NEXT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAINS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
ELEVATED CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU DUE TO
LOW HUMIDITY. NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35 DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  63  85  64  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  60  85  63  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     87  62  86  63  85 /  -    0  -   20  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            83  62  84  64  85 /   0   0  -   20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  69  89  67  93 /  -   -   20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  63  84  65  83 /  -    0  -   20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             89  66  88  66  90 /  -    0  -   20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  61  85  63  84 /  -    0  -   20  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  62  84  64  83 /  -   -   -   20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  64  87  65  88 /  -    0  -   20  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  64  88  65  89 /  -    0  -   20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26






000
FXUS64 KFWD 220830
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAD EXITED THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS OF 08Z
/3 AM CDT/. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER THE
RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOME DENSE FOG MAY
OCCUR. FOR NOW HAVE JUST MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID MORNING
IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO WEATHERFORD TO TEMPLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
WILL DO AN UPDATE LATER TO ADD A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT US RAIN MOVES FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST. THE LIGHT
NORTH SURFACE WINDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
TODAY AND EASTERLY TONIGHT. AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY
AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD
THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE BEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY. WE WILL BE IN ZONAL FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL HAVE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  62  84  64  83 /   0   0   0  20  10
WACO, TX              84  59  84  62  82 /   0   0   0  20  10
PARIS, TX             79  55  79  61  79 /   0   0   0  20  20
DENTON, TX            81  57  84  62  82 /   0   0   0  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          82  58  81  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
DALLAS, TX            84  63  83  64  82 /   0   0   0  20  10
TERRELL, TX           81  59  82  63  80 /   0   0   0  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         82  61  83  62  82 /   0   0   0  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            82  59  83  63  83 /   0   0   0  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  57  84  62  84 /   0   0   0  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

85/58







000
FXUS64 KBRO 220549 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1249 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...INVERSION NOTED ON EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED THAT CLOUD
BASES AT 6000 WILL BE THE DOMINANT LAYER OVERNIGHT. WEAK LIGHT
RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE REMNANTS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
NE MEXICO WILL ARRIVE AT KMFE AROUND 08Z. THE RAINFALL IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER VALLEY AIRPORTS. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 1500 BRIEFLY RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE...WITH A RETURN
ABOVE 5000 BY NOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO BOTH INITIAL CONDITIONS
AND THE FINAL PERIOD OF THE PREVIOUS TAFS...BUT OVERALL THE CORE
OF THE TAFS WERE LEFT INTACT DUE TO SOUND FORECAST REASONING. VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS DIMINISH TO
LIGHTER LEVELS WHILE CLOUD DECKS LOWER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED CLOSE TO SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. VFR WILL RESUME BY THE
MID-MORNING HOURS WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO MODERATE LEVELS
WHILE CLOUD DECKS RISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS
TO OUR NORTH WILL BE SLIDING EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. THIS
MORNINGS BRO SOUNDING WAS A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE VERSUS YESTERDAY
WITH A 12Z CAPE OF 1263 J/KG. HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT IN THE SOUNDING
WERE FROM THE W-SW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DEPTH OF THE ATMS AND
THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE CONV POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS DRY AIR IS ADVECTED IN FROM THE MID LEVELS. HOWEVER
WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF SLGT CHC POPS OUT WEST THIS EVENING AS AN
ISOLD CELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SOME CONV FIRING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO COULD STRAY INTO THE AREA.

WILL TREND DOWN THE POPS FOR TOMORROW AS 500 MB RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. WITH LESS
CLD COVER AND INCREASING 1000-500 MB THICKNESS SEE NO REASON FOR
HIGH TEMPS NOT TO EDGE UP TOMORROW.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE IN PRETTY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER FOR BOTH
TEMPS AND POPS. WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

AS THE SURFACE WINDS SLACKEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FOUR COUNTIES
AND WILL INCLUDE THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL INDUCE LEE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND
RATCHET UP BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH RACES EASTWARD THURSDAY AND HELP DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BEFORE STALLING ON FRIDAY AND LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. A STRONGER TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST
SATURDAY SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. FORECAST
KEPT MOSTLY IN TACT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ECMWF BRINGS A
DRYLINE WITH LOW DEPOINTS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE GFS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF IS ALSO FORECASTING A HEAT SPIKE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DRY AIR WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 100S ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE OF ECX MOS AT LONG
RANGE WILL DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION AND KEEP WITH CONSENSUS DAYS 6-7.

FOR POP CHANCES...WILL KEEP SILENT POPS GOING AS LITTLE LIFT AND
STRONG CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AT BAY OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT. MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE TSTORMS MONDAY AS THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT GET CLOSER.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER
THE GULF OF MEX WILL MAINTAIN A PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN OVER THE
LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP THE MARINE CONDITIONS
WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST.
1-3 FOOT SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET BY THURSDAY WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
BRIEF REPRIEVE IN STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS
RATCHET UP AGAIN SATURDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT NEEDING TO EXERCISE
CAUTION.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

64/51






000
FXUS64 KCRP 220537 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1237 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UDPATE FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN WX CONCERN FOR NEXT 24 HRS IS LOW CLOUD/FOG
POTENTIAL REST OF TONIGHT. DEBRIS CI CURRENTLY MVNG ACROSS TX
SHOULD LIMIT LLVL CLOUDS/FOG FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...THOUGH ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW A REDUCTION IN VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. FOR
NOW...HAVE A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VSBYS AT KVCT TO IFR BY
SUNRISE...KCRP VSBYS LOWERING ONLY TO MVFR AROUND SUNRISE...KLRD
EXPERIENCING MORE IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE...AND
KALI HAVING GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FG WITH FLIGHT RULES LOWERING
TO LIFR. AMENDMENTS...HOWEVER...MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT. FOR
DAYTIME HRS TUES...CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG AND CONTINUE THRU TUES AFTN/EVENING.
LIGHT/VAR WINDS OVERNIGHT TO PERSIST INTO TUES AT KVCT WHILE
REMAINING TERMINALS BECOME LIGHT/SERLY BY TUES AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  65  82  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          85  65  85  65  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  70  94  69  94  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             89  63  87  67  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  65  79  65  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  65  92  67  91  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        89  64  85  67  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  67  78  66  79  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 220537 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1237 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UDPATE FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN WX CONCERN FOR NEXT 24 HRS IS LOW CLOUD/FOG
POTENTIAL REST OF TONIGHT. DEBRIS CI CURRENTLY MVNG ACROSS TX
SHOULD LIMIT LLVL CLOUDS/FOG FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...THOUGH ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW A REDUCTION IN VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. FOR
NOW...HAVE A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VSBYS AT KVCT TO IFR BY
SUNRISE...KCRP VSBYS LOWERING ONLY TO MVFR AROUND SUNRISE...KLRD
EXPERIENCING MORE IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE...AND
KALI HAVING GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FG WITH FLIGHT RULES LOWERING
TO LIFR. AMENDMENTS...HOWEVER...MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT. FOR
DAYTIME HRS TUES...CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG AND CONTINUE THRU TUES AFTN/EVENING.
LIGHT/VAR WINDS OVERNIGHT TO PERSIST INTO TUES AT KVCT WHILE
REMAINING TERMINALS BECOME LIGHT/SERLY BY TUES AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  65  82  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          85  65  85  65  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  70  94  69  94  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             89  63  87  67  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  65  79  65  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  65  92  67  91  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        89  64  85  67  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  67  78  66  79  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 220537 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1237 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UDPATE FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN WX CONCERN FOR NEXT 24 HRS IS LOW CLOUD/FOG
POTENTIAL REST OF TONIGHT. DEBRIS CI CURRENTLY MVNG ACROSS TX
SHOULD LIMIT LLVL CLOUDS/FOG FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...THOUGH ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW A REDUCTION IN VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. FOR
NOW...HAVE A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VSBYS AT KVCT TO IFR BY
SUNRISE...KCRP VSBYS LOWERING ONLY TO MVFR AROUND SUNRISE...KLRD
EXPERIENCING MORE IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE...AND
KALI HAVING GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FG WITH FLIGHT RULES LOWERING
TO LIFR. AMENDMENTS...HOWEVER...MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT. FOR
DAYTIME HRS TUES...CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG AND CONTINUE THRU TUES AFTN/EVENING.
LIGHT/VAR WINDS OVERNIGHT TO PERSIST INTO TUES AT KVCT WHILE
REMAINING TERMINALS BECOME LIGHT/SERLY BY TUES AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  65  82  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          85  65  85  65  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  70  94  69  94  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             89  63  87  67  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  65  79  65  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  65  92  67  91  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        89  64  85  67  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  67  78  66  79  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KCRP 220537 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1237 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UDPATE FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN WX CONCERN FOR NEXT 24 HRS IS LOW CLOUD/FOG
POTENTIAL REST OF TONIGHT. DEBRIS CI CURRENTLY MVNG ACROSS TX
SHOULD LIMIT LLVL CLOUDS/FOG FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...THOUGH ANY
CLEARING WILL ALLOW A REDUCTION IN VSBYS AND/OR CIGS. FOR
NOW...HAVE A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VSBYS AT KVCT TO IFR BY
SUNRISE...KCRP VSBYS LOWERING ONLY TO MVFR AROUND SUNRISE...KLRD
EXPERIENCING MORE IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS AROUND SUNRISE...AND
KALI HAVING GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FG WITH FLIGHT RULES LOWERING
TO LIFR. AMENDMENTS...HOWEVER...MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT. FOR
DAYTIME HRS TUES...CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY MID/LATE MRNG AND CONTINUE THRU TUES AFTN/EVENING.
LIGHT/VAR WINDS OVERNIGHT TO PERSIST INTO TUES AT KVCT WHILE
REMAINING TERMINALS BECOME LIGHT/SERLY BY TUES AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  65  82  67  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          85  65  85  65  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            93  70  94  69  94  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             89  63  87  67  88  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  65  79  65  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           91  65  92  67  91  /  10  10  10  20  10
KINGSVILLE        89  64  85  67  86  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       80  67  78  66  79  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION





000
FXUS64 KEWX 220512 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1212 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
TWEAKS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TONIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/QPF FOR THE STORMS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE STORMS WHICH
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY
EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO DISSIPATE THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM SONORA TO ROCKSPRINGS TO MEDINA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AFTER 2 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS/HILL COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TAF TERMINALS.
DUE TO THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...A DELAY
IN THE ONSET OF THE LOW STRATUS IS NOW EXPECTED...AND THERE IS
LESS CONFIDENCE OVERALL OF A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
WEAK FRONT. SHOULD THE STRATUS DECK DEVELOP...IT WILL LIFT/BREAK
OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS N-NELY SFC WINDS PUSH DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
FOR ALLOWED EXPIRATION OF SVR WATCH 85.

DISCUSSION...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS/NORTH OF THE
HILL COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S/SW-WRD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PULSE TO
SEVERE LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THREAT AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS
IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXTENDING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF CREEKS/STREAMS/DRAINAGE AREAS. ASIDE FROM TWEAKS DUE
TO THE WATCH...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY/SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/1 AM CDT AND
EXPANDED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING IN CASE THE STORMS
LINGER PAST 06Z. NEW ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85. ADDITIONALLY...00Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND PUSHED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO A WARM
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DECREASES TONIGHT. DUE TO THE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND S/SW-WRD MOTION OF THE STORMS HAVE ADDED
KERR...KENDALL...AND COMAL COUNTIES TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85.
THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THIS EVENING. ISO-SCT TSRA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
KECU TO KHYI TO K3T5. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT COVERAGE AND MOTION OF THE STORMS DO
NOT INDICATE IMPACTS AT TAF LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THAT TAF AMD MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS EVENING AS THE
SITUATION PROGRESSES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PROGRESS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL SEND DRIER N-NELY SFC WINDS INTO THE AREA...ENABLING
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 10 PM THIS EVENING HILL
COUNTRY...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
CLEARING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AT THE TAIL END OF
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY-LINE HAS ALLOWED STORMS TO DEVELOP ATOP
OF SERRANIAS DEL BURRO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE STORMS WILL FORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OR FROM 3 PM TO ABOUT 10 PM
THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10
PM THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A MOUNTAIN HOME
TO SAN MARCOS TO TAYLOR LINE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183
LATER TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE STORMS WILL BE BELOW SEVERITY
CRITERIA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
FOR THIS EVENT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. HOWEVER...ONE
HALF TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGEST STORMS.

LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOME ZONAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S OUT
WEST AND UPPER 80S MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  85  63  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  85  62  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  63  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  83  62  85  65 /  40  -   -   -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  88  70  92  69 /  30  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  83  62  84  66 /  40  -   -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  90  67  90  69 /  30  -   -   -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  86  62  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  85  64  86  67 /  20  10  -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  88  65  87  68 /  20  -   -   -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  89  65  90  68 /  20  -   -   -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25






000
FXUS64 KAMA 220501
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1201 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 15Z TUESDAY AND
INCREAWSE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AFTER
15Z TO 16Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING MAY IMPACT THE AMARILLO TAF
SITE UNTIL 02Z TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT...AFTER 10Z TUESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY 12Z
TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z TO 16Z TUESDAY
TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE THE DAY OF CONCERN WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

NO POPS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS AIRMASS REMAINS STABLE IN WAKE OF
WEAK COLD FRONT.

HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CORNER OF
FORCAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE TROF IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING INSTABILITY WEST OF DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET.

WEDNESDAY POPS ALONG AND EAST OF DRYLINE HAVE BEEN INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN FAR EASTERN ZONES.  HAVE ALSO SPREAD LOW POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO NORTHERN ZONES AS SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS INTO
FORECAST AREA.

DRY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS EAST ON
SATURDAY AS DRYLINE SETS UP.  HAVE TRIMMED FRIDAY NIGHT POPS FROM
WEST DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF DRYLINE.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR US TO BE DRY-SLOTTED.  HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN SECTIONS.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.  A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
WESTERN ONE THIRD OF THE PANHANDLES.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

11





000
FXUS64 KMAF 220501
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1201 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies are expected the next 24
hours. East winds of 5 to 15 mph overnight will become southeast
at 10 to 20 mph and gutsy by mid Tuesday morning and continue
through Tuesday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
A weak front will make for mostly ne winds less than 10kts overnight
and satellite indicates clouds will decrease this evening. A more
definitive se wind will develop Tue AM with 15G25kts expected to
be fairly widespread by mid/late morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite is showing convection in the higher elevations
from the Guadalupe Mountains, down into the Big Bend this
afternoon. A weak cold front has brought lower dewpoints which are
only in the 30s in these areas, thus instability is limited and do
not expect near the coverage seen yesterday. Temperatures will be
warmer tomorrow, and models show southeasterly flow pushing a mid
level theta-e ridge west of the Pecos River which may be enough
for more isolated mountain convection.

An upper level trough moves into the Central Plains Wednesday
pushing very dry air into west Texas and sharpening a dryline in
the central CWA. There will be plenty of shear and instability
along and east of the dryline for severe thunderstorm development;
however, a mid level cap will limit the highest severe potential
to the northeastern Permian Basin and areas further north where
lift associated with the upper trough will be greater. It should
be noted though that if any storms manage to develop further south
then they could go severe as well given similar instability and
shear. The trough pushes a weak front through Thursday, but
westerly flow will bring well above normal temperatures Friday and
Saturday.

Models disagree on the strength and amplitude of another upper
trough moving into the four corners region Saturday. The GFS is
deeper than the ECMWF, and develops more convection along a
dryline in west Texas. Will not introduce PoPs yet since this is
at the end of the forecast period, but it is interesting that the
GFS ensembles agree on the deeper solution so hopefully we can
look for more rain chances.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
An upper trough moving into the Central Plains will bring
increasing westerly flow Wednesday, pushing very dry air into the
central Permian Basin. A dryline will sharpen and become
stationary denoting a boundary from the dry air and more moist air
to the east. It is likely that critical fire weather conditions
will develop in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico,
and this could spread further east into the western Permian Basin
and upper Trans Pecos in Texas. For now though will issue a Fire
Weather Watch for southeastern New Mexico, where confidence in
meeting criteria is greatest, and will allow other shifts to
extend the watch further east and south if necessary. Winds will
diminish Thursday as the trough passes east easing the fire
weather threat, but critical conditions may occur again Thursday
in the Guadalupe Mountains where winds will be strongest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  83  63  89  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              57  84  62  88  /   0   0   0  20
CARLSBAD NM                57  85  62  88  /  10  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  62  87  65  95  /  20  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  65  89  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  78  58  77  /  10  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   54  82  61  86  /   0  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   51  80  55  83  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  85  63  88  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  59  85  64  88  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    61  88  65  91  /  10  10  10  10

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/10






000
FXUS64 KMAF 220501
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1201 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies are expected the next 24
hours. East winds of 5 to 15 mph overnight will become southeast
at 10 to 20 mph and gutsy by mid Tuesday morning and continue
through Tuesday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
A weak front will make for mostly ne winds less than 10kts overnight
and satellite indicates clouds will decrease this evening. A more
definitive se wind will develop Tue AM with 15G25kts expected to
be fairly widespread by mid/late morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite is showing convection in the higher elevations
from the Guadalupe Mountains, down into the Big Bend this
afternoon. A weak cold front has brought lower dewpoints which are
only in the 30s in these areas, thus instability is limited and do
not expect near the coverage seen yesterday. Temperatures will be
warmer tomorrow, and models show southeasterly flow pushing a mid
level theta-e ridge west of the Pecos River which may be enough
for more isolated mountain convection.

An upper level trough moves into the Central Plains Wednesday
pushing very dry air into west Texas and sharpening a dryline in
the central CWA. There will be plenty of shear and instability
along and east of the dryline for severe thunderstorm development;
however, a mid level cap will limit the highest severe potential
to the northeastern Permian Basin and areas further north where
lift associated with the upper trough will be greater. It should
be noted though that if any storms manage to develop further south
then they could go severe as well given similar instability and
shear. The trough pushes a weak front through Thursday, but
westerly flow will bring well above normal temperatures Friday and
Saturday.

Models disagree on the strength and amplitude of another upper
trough moving into the four corners region Saturday. The GFS is
deeper than the ECMWF, and develops more convection along a
dryline in west Texas. Will not introduce PoPs yet since this is
at the end of the forecast period, but it is interesting that the
GFS ensembles agree on the deeper solution so hopefully we can
look for more rain chances.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
An upper trough moving into the Central Plains will bring
increasing westerly flow Wednesday, pushing very dry air into the
central Permian Basin. A dryline will sharpen and become
stationary denoting a boundary from the dry air and more moist air
to the east. It is likely that critical fire weather conditions
will develop in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico,
and this could spread further east into the western Permian Basin
and upper Trans Pecos in Texas. For now though will issue a Fire
Weather Watch for southeastern New Mexico, where confidence in
meeting criteria is greatest, and will allow other shifts to
extend the watch further east and south if necessary. Winds will
diminish Thursday as the trough passes east easing the fire
weather threat, but critical conditions may occur again Thursday
in the Guadalupe Mountains where winds will be strongest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  83  63  89  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              57  84  62  88  /   0   0   0  20
CARLSBAD NM                57  85  62  88  /  10  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  62  87  65  95  /  20  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  65  89  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  78  58  77  /  10  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   54  82  61  86  /   0  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   51  80  55  83  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  85  63  88  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  59  85  64  88  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    61  88  65  91  /  10  10  10  10

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/10





000
FXUS64 KAMA 220501
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1201 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 15Z TUESDAY AND
INCREAWSE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS AFTER
15Z TO 16Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING MAY IMPACT THE AMARILLO TAF
SITE UNTIL 02Z TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT...AFTER 10Z TUESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY 12Z
TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z TO 16Z TUESDAY
TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE THE DAY OF CONCERN WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

NO POPS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS AIRMASS REMAINS STABLE IN WAKE OF
WEAK COLD FRONT.

HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST CORNER OF
FORCAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING...AS SHORTWAVE TROF IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING INSTABILITY WEST OF DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET.

WEDNESDAY POPS ALONG AND EAST OF DRYLINE HAVE BEEN INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN FAR EASTERN ZONES.  HAVE ALSO SPREAD LOW POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO NORTHERN ZONES AS SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS INTO
FORECAST AREA.

DRY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS EAST ON
SATURDAY AS DRYLINE SETS UP.  HAVE TRIMMED FRIDAY NIGHT POPS FROM
WEST DUE TO EXPECTED POSITION OF DRYLINE.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR US TO BE DRY-SLOTTED.  HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN SECTIONS.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.  A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
WESTERN ONE THIRD OF THE PANHANDLES.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

11






000
FXUS64 KEWX 220452
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1152 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS/HILL COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE APPROACHING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TAF TERMINALS.
DUE TO THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...A DELAY
IN THE ONSET OF THE LOW STRATUS IS NOW EXPECTED...AND THERE IS
LESS CONFIDENCE OVERALL OF A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
WEAK FRONT. SHOULD THE STRATUS DECK DEVELOP...IT WILL LIFT/BREAK
OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS N-NELY SFC WINDS PUSH DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
FOR ALLOWED EXPIRATION OF SVR WATCH 85.

DISCUSSION...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS/NORTH OF THE
HILL COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S/SW-WRD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PULSE TO
SEVERE LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THREAT AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS
IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT EXTENDING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF CREEKS/STREAMS/DRAINAGE AREAS. ASIDE FROM TWEAKS DUE
TO THE WATCH...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY/SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/1 AM CDT AND
EXPANDED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING IN CASE THE STORMS
LINGER PAST 06Z. NEW ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85. ADDITIONALLY...00Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND PUSHED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO A WARM
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY DECREASES TONIGHT. DUE TO THE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND S/SW-WRD MOTION OF THE STORMS HAVE ADDED
KERR...KENDALL...AND COMAL COUNTIES TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85.
THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THIS EVENING. ISO-SCT TSRA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
KECU TO KHYI TO K3T5. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT COVERAGE AND MOTION OF THE STORMS DO
NOT INDICATE IMPACTS AT TAF LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THAT TAF AMD MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS EVENING AS THE
SITUATION PROGRESSES.

LATER TONIGHT...LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PROGRESS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL SEND DRIER N-NELY SFC WINDS INTO THE AREA...ENABLING
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 10 PM THIS EVENING HILL
COUNTRY...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
CLEARING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AT THE TAIL END OF
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY-LINE HAS ALLOWED STORMS TO DEVELOP ATOP
OF SERRANIAS DEL BURRO THIS AFTERNOON. MORE STORMS WILL FORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OR FROM 3 PM TO ABOUT 10 PM
THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10
PM THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A MOUNTAIN HOME
TO SAN MARCOS TO TAYLOR LINE. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183
LATER TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE STORMS WILL BE BELOW SEVERITY
CRITERIA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS
FOR THIS EVENT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. HOWEVER...ONE
HALF TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGEST STORMS.

LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOME ZONAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S OUT
WEST AND UPPER 80S MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              64  85  63  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  85  62  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     64  86  63  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  83  62  85  65 /  40  -   -   -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  88  70  92  69 /  30  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  83  62  84  66 /  40  -   -   -   20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             67  90  67  90  69 /  20  -   -   -   20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        63  86  62  86  66 /  30  -   -   -   20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   65  85  64  86  67 /  20  10  -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  88  65  87  68 /  20  -   -   -   20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           66  89  65  90  68 /  20  -   -   -   20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25






000
FXUS64 KLUB 220441
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
PASSING OVERHEAD. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY DEEPENING
SURFACE TROUGH AND MODEST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER TO NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS A WEAK IMPULSE
WITH MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS EDGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT
RAINFALL. THESE HAVE DONE WELL JUST TO ARRIVE WITHIN A FAIRLY COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...SO HAVE EARNED
AMENDED FORECAST STATUS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. VERY WEAK HIGH-BASED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE APPROACHING EITHER LOCATION. MODEST LOW LEVEL
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A CUMULUS FIELD IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THE CU
ARE QUIET SHALLOW AT 230 PM...BUT THERE IS SOME SATELLITE INDICATION
OF MORE BUNCHING AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM COLO AND NM...WHILE RAP/SPC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT CIN IS
MINIMAL ON THE CAPROCK WITH ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IN THIS
REGIME...WE STILL THINK WE/LL SEE SOME ISOLD T-STORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS FOCUSED FROM THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN SPLNS. RAINFALL SHOULD BE PRETTY SPOTTY. AND
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD DIE OUT PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A QUIET NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGES SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO PICK UP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. LATE IN THE
DAY...THE MID-LVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW. SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY-AIDED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN NM LATE IN THE DAY
BUT LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY
THROUGH 7 PM. TONIGHT/S LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...WHILE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.

LONG TERM...
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WEST TEXAS LOOKS TO BE SITUATED ALMOST
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE AXIS OF A STOUT UPPER RIDGE...WITH A
POTENT TROUGH RIGHT ON ITS HEELS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION.
WHILE THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...PRESSURE FALLS ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE WILL
STEADILY INCREASE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
BEGINNING THE SLOW RETURN OF QUALITY MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE MODIFIED AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL STILL FEATURE ONLY MARGINAL DEWPOINTS...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN IS LIKELY TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND GIVEN A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET...GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE AND INCREASING STEERING FLOW
OVERNIGHT...A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
MAY BE ABLE TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OPTED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE 10
PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH LEFT OUT EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY HAVE
REACHED THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...SPREADING MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS.  MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A DRYLINE WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SEEMS
TO SUGGEST THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE I27
CORRIDOR AND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY BULLISH REGARDING LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THIS DRYLINE...AND IF STORMS DO MANAGE
TO DEVELOP IT APPEARS THAT SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...WHILE THE PERSISTENCE OF
VIGOROUS DRYLINE CONVECTION IN OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DOES LEND
CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION...CAPPING DOES REMAIN A CONCERN
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE.  ALSO...MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT DRYLINE CONVERGE MAY BE LESS THAN
IDEAL UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MITIGATED
SOMEWHAT BY EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.  SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT STORM
MODE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DESPITE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...DUE TO DEWPOINT SPREADS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 DEGREES AND
RESULTING HIGH LCLS.  ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT WE OPTED TO KEEP
POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING INITIATION AND ALSO COVERAGE LIMITATIONS THAT USUALLY
RESULT FROM DISCRETE DRYLINE STORMS.  ANOTHER THING TO CONSIDER FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE.  THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY
NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR THE 15
PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME.

OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD...RESULTING
IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND VERY PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY.  MODELS THEN
HANG THIS FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ON FRIDAY
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DRAW MOISTURE BACK
NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AS WELL...GIVEN OUR POSITION UNDERNEATH A
FLAT UPPER RIDGE.

THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND THEN GETS INTERESTING AGAIN...ALTHOUGH
IT IS STILL RIFE WITH UNCERTAINTIES. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO EXHIBIT MAJOR PATTERN DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS WILL DRAMATICALLY IMPACT THE
POTENTIAL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THE GFS
SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DIG THIS TROUGH WELL SOUTH INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WHERE IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A VERY DEEP
CLOSED LOW.  IN ADDITION...IT ALSO DEVELOPS A SHARP DRYLINE AND
KEEPS THIS FEATURE FROM ADVANCING TOO FAR TO THE EAST.  UNDER THIS
SETUP...AN EPISODE OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST
THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND POTENTIALLY A SIGNIFICANT ONE.  ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SOLUTION MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE FOR MUCH
LONGER...AND FAILS TO DIG THIS TROUGH NEARLY AS DEEP INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LIKE THE GFS.  THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALSO LIKELY RESULT
IN A MUCH MORE EASTERLY POSITION OF THE DRYLINE...AND A DAY OF WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.  DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...OPTED TO INCLUDE A LOW MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFS.  BY
SUNDAY...BOTH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR WILL BE FIRMLY IN
PLACE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...BLOWING DUST
AND FIRE WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  80  55  81  45 /  20   0  10  10  10
TULIA         51  80  56  83  47 /  10   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  80  58  84  49 /  10   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     52  82  58  85  48 /  10   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       55  82  59  86  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  84  60  84  51 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    54  83  60  86  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     55  83  54  86  58 /   0   0   0  30  30
SPUR          56  84  57  86  54 /   0   0   0  20  20
ASPERMONT     59  86  57  91  60 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05






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